WorldWideScience

Sample records for oscillation enso variability

  1. The Relationship between El nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Phenomenon and Seasonal Precipitation Variability in Eastern Kenya with Special Reference to Katumani: Its Implication to Crop Production

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kitheka, S.K

    1999-01-01

    Climatic variability has been defined as a major limitation to agricultural production in semi arid Kenya. The major difficulty to both farmers and research community, has been the inability to to predict seasonal rainfall prior to the season onset. Although several researches have attempted and made advances in predicting rainfall amount, solutions to the problem have not been achieved. This study has examined and related rainfall at Katumani with the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. Rainfall variations during different phases of ENSO were established. Some advances in the early prediction of March-May and October -January rains for, both, the warm and cold phases of ENSO have been made. Crop production is closely related to the rainfall and therefore a need for revision of agronomic recommendation to tie them with rainfall variation

  2. Multi-scale linkages of winter drought variability to ENSO and the Arctic Oscillation: A case study in Shaanxi, North China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Zhiyong; Zhang, Xin; Fang, Ruihong

    2018-02-01

    Understanding the potential connections between climate indices such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Arctic Oscillation (AO) and drought variability will be beneficial for making reasonable predictions or assumptions about future regional droughts, and provide valuable information to improve water resources planning and design for specific regions of interest. This study is to examine the multi-scale relationships between winter drought variability over Shaanxi (North China) and both ENSO and AO during the period 1960-2009. To accomplish this, we first estimated winter dryness/wetness conditions over Shaanxi based on the self-calibrating Palmer drought severity index (PDSI). Then, we identified the spatiotemporal variability of winter dryness/wetness conditions in the study area by using the empirical orthogonal function (EOF). Two primary sub-regions of winter dryness/wetness conditions across Shaanxi were identified. We further examined the periodical oscillations of dryness/wetness conditions and the multi-scale relationships between dryness/wetness conditions and both ENSO and AO in winter using wavelet analysis. The results indicate that there are inverse multi-scale relations between winter dryness/wetness conditions and ENSO (according to the wavelet coherence) for most of the study area. Moreover, positive multi-scale relations between winter dryness/wetness conditions and AO are mainly observed. The results could be beneficial for making reasonable predictions or assumptions about future regional droughts and provide valuable information to improve water resources planning and design within this study area. In addition to the current study area, this study may also offer a useful reference for other regions worldwide with similar climate conditions.

  3. Heartbeat of the Southern Oscillation explains ENSO climatic resonances

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bruun, John T.; Allen, J. Icarus; Smyth, Timothy J.

    2017-08-01

    The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) nonlinear oscillator phenomenon has a far reaching influence on the climate and human activities. The up to 10 year quasi-period cycle of the El Niño and subsequent La Niña is known to be dominated in the tropics by nonlinear physical interaction of wind with the equatorial waveguide in the Pacific. Long-term cyclic phenomena do not feature in the current theory of the ENSO process. We update the theory by assessing low (>10 years) and high (features. The observational data sets of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), North Pacific Index Anomaly, and ENSO Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly, as well as a theoretical model all confirm the existence of long-term and short-term climatic cycles of the ENSO process with resonance frequencies of {2.5, 3.8, 5, 12-14, 61-75, 180} years. This fundamental result shows long-term and short-term signal coupling with mode locking across the dominant ENSO dynamics. These dominant oscillation frequency dynamics, defined as ENSO frequency states, contain a stable attractor with three frequencies in resonance allowing us to coin the term Heartbeat of the Southern Oscillation due to its characteristic shape. We predict future ENSO states based on a stable hysteresis scenario of short-term and long-term ENSO oscillations over the next century.Plain Language SummaryThe Pacific El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) nonlinear oscillator phenomenon has a far reaching influence on the climate and our human activities. This work can help predict both long-term and short-term future ENSO events and to assess the risk of future climate hysteresis changes: is the elastic band that regulates the ENSO climate breaking? We update the current theory of the ENSO process with a sophisticated analysis approach (Dominant Frequency State Analysis) to include long-term oscillations (up to 200 years) as well as tropical and extratropical interaction dynamics. The analysis uses instrumental and paleoproxy data

  4. Solar cycle modulation of ENSO variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kodera, Kunihiko; Thiéblemont, Rémi

    2016-04-01

    Inspired by the work of Labitzke and van Loon on solar/QBO modulation in the stratosphere, Barnett (1989) conducted an investigation on the relationship between the the biannual component of the sea surface temperature (SST) in the equatorial eastern Pacific and the solar activity. He found that the amplitude of biannual component of the SST (BO) is modulated by the 11-year solar cycle: the amplitude of the BO is large during a period of low solar activity, but small during high solar activity. More than 25-years or two solar cycle has passed since his finding, but the relationship still holds. In order to get an insight into the mechanism of the solar modulation of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), here we have revisited this problem. Solar cycle modulation of the BO in the tropical SST is discernible since the end of the 19th centuries, but the amplitude modulation is particularly clear after 1960's. The composite analysis of the SST based on the amplitude of the BO during 1958-2012, indicates that the amplitude of BO is larger when the equatorial Pacific temperature anomalies are high in the central Pacific, but low in the eastern Pacific. Central Pacific anomalies extend to the northern hemisphere, while those in the central Pacific spread toward the southern hemisphere. In short, this anomalous SST pattern is similar to the El Niño modoki. In this connection, it should be noted that the solar signal in the tropical SST also exhibits a similar pattern. This suggests that the modulation of the ENSO variability by the solar cycle originates through a modulation of the El Niño Modoki rather than the canonical El Nino.

  5. ENSO related decadal scale climate variability from the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brijker, J.M.; Jung, S.J.A.; Ganssen, G.M.; Bickert, T.; Kroon, D.

    2006-01-01

    The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a climatic phenomenon that affects socio-economical welfare in vast areas in the world. A continuous record of Holocene ENSO related climate variability of the Indo-Pacific Warm pool (IPWP) is constructed on the basis of stable oxygen isotopes in shells of

  6. Changes in Sea Salt Emissions Enhance ENSO Variability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yang, Yang; Russell, Lynn M.; Lou, Sijia; Lamjiri, Maryam A.; Liu, Ying; Singh, Balwinder; Ghan, Steven J.

    2016-11-15

    Two 150-year pre-industrial simulations with and without interactive sea salt emissions from the Community Earth System Model (CESM) are performed to quantify the interactions between sea salt emissions and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Variations in sea salt emissions over the tropical Pacific Ocean are affected by changing wind speed associated with ENSO variability. ENSO-induced interannual variations in sea salt emissions result in decreasing (increasing) aerosol optical depth (AOD) by 0.03 over the equatorial central-eastern (western) Pacific Ocean during El Niño events compared to those during La Niña events. These changes in AOD further increase (decrease) radiative fluxes into the atmosphere by +0.2 W m-2 (-0.4 W m-2) over the tropical eastern (western) Pacific. Thereby, sea surface temperature increases (decreases) by 0.2–0.4 K over the tropical eastern (western) Pacific Ocean during El Niño compared to La Niña events and enhances ENSO variability by 10%. The increase in ENSO amplitude is a result of systematic heating (cooling) during the warm (cold) phase, of ENSO in the eastern Pacific. Interannual variations in sea salt emissions then produce the anomalous ascent (subsidence) over the equatorial eastern (western) Pacific between El Niño and La Niña events, which is a result of heating anomalies. Due to variations in sea salt emissions, the convective precipitation is enhanced by 0.6–1.2 mm day-1 over the tropical central-eastern Pacific Ocean and weakened by 0.9–1.5 mm day-1 over the Maritime Continent during El Niño compared to La Niña events, enhancing the precipitation variability over the tropical Pacific.

  7. ENSO Related Inter-Annual Lightning Variability from the Full TRMM LIS Lightning Climatology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clark, Austin; Cecil, Daniel

    2018-01-01

    The El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) contributes to inter-annual variability of lightning production more than any other atmospheric oscillation. This study further investigated how ENSO phase affects lightning production in the tropics and subtropics using the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS). Lightning data were averaged into mean annual warm, cold, and neutral 'years' for analysis of the different phases and compared to model reanalysis data. An examination of the regional sensitivities and preliminary analysis of three locations was conducted using model reanalysis data to determine the leading convective mechanisms in these areas and how they might respond to the ENSO phases

  8. ENSO Related Interannual Lightning Variability from the Full TRMM LIS Lightning Climatology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clark, Austin; Cecil, Daniel J.

    2018-01-01

    It has been shown that the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) contributes to inter-annual variability of lightning production in the tropics and subtropics more than any other atmospheric oscillation. This study further investigated how ENSO phase affects lightning production in the tropics and subtropics. Using the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) and the Oceanic Nino Index (ONI) for ENSO phase, lightning data were averaged into corresponding mean annual warm, cold, and neutral 'years' for analysis of the different phases. An examination of the regional sensitivities and preliminary analysis of three locations was conducted using model reanalysis data to determine the leading convective mechanisms in these areas and how they might respond to the ENSO phases. These processes were then studied for inter-annual variance and subsequent correlation to ENSO during the study period to best describe the observed lightning deviations from year to year at each location.

  9. The natural oscillation of two types of ENSO events based on analyses of CMIP5 model control runs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Kang; Su, Jingzhi; Zhu, Congwen

    2014-07-01

    The eastern- and central-Pacific El Niño-Southern Oscillation (EP- and CP-ENSO) have been found to be dominant in the tropical Pacific Ocean, and are characterized by interannual and decadal oscillation, respectively. In the present study, we defined the EP- and CP-ENSO modes by singular value decomposition (SVD) between SST and sea level pressure (SLP) anomalous fields. We evaluated the natural features of these two types of ENSO modes as simulated by the pre-industrial control runs of 20 models involved in phase five of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). The results suggested that all the models show good skill in simulating the SST and SLP anomaly dipolar structures for the EP-ENSO mode, but only 12 exhibit good performance in simulating the tripolar CP-ENSO modes. Wavelet analysis suggested that the ensemble principal components in these 12 models exhibit an interannual and multi-decadal oscillation related to the EP- and CP-ENSO, respectively. Since there are no changes in external forcing in the pre-industrial control runs, such a result implies that the decadal oscillation of CP-ENSO is possibly a result of natural climate variability rather than external forcing.

  10. Reduced ENSO Variability at the LGM Revealed by an Isotope-Enabled Earth System Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Jiang; Liu, Zhengyu; Brady, Esther; Otto-Bliesner, Bette; Zhang, Jiaxu; Noone, David; Tomas, Robert; Nusbaumer, Jesse; Wong, Tony; Jahn, Alexandra; hide

    2017-01-01

    Studying the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the past can help us better understand its dynamics and improve its future projections. However, both paleoclimate reconstructions and model simulations of ENSO strength at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; 21 ka B.P.) have led to contradicting results. Here we perform model simulations using the recently developed water isotope-enabled Community Earth System Model (iCESM). For the first time, model-simulated oxygen isotopes are directly compared with those from ENSO reconstructions using the individual foraminifera analysis (IFA). We find that the LGM ENSO is most likely weaker comparing with the preindustrial. The iCESM suggests that total variance of the IFA records may only reflect changes in the annual cycle instead of ENSO variability as previously assumed. Furthermore, the interpretation of subsurface IFA records can be substantially complicated by the habitat depth of thermocline-dwelling foraminifera and their vertical migration with a temporally varying thermocline.

  11. Asymptotic solving method for sea-air coupled oscillator ENSO model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhou Xian-Chun; Yao Jing-Sun; Mo Jia-Qi

    2012-01-01

    The ENSO is an interannual phenomenon involved in the tropical Pacific ocean-atmosphere interaction. In this article, we create an asymptotic solving method for the nonlinear system of the ENSO model. The asymptotic solution is obtained. And then we can furnish weather forecasts theoretically and other behaviors and rules for the atmosphere-ocean oscillator of the ENSO. (general)

  12. Response of ENSO amplitude to global warming in CESM large ensemble: uncertainty due to internal variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Xiao-Tong; Hui, Chang; Yeh, Sang-Wook

    2018-06-01

    El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant mode of variability in the coupled ocean-atmospheric system. Future projections of ENSO change under global warming are highly uncertain among models. In this study, the effect of internal variability on ENSO amplitude change in future climate projections is investigated based on a 40-member ensemble from the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble (CESM-LE) project. A large uncertainty is identified among ensemble members due to internal variability. The inter-member diversity is associated with a zonal dipole pattern of sea surface temperature (SST) change in the mean along the equator, which is similar to the second empirical orthogonal function (EOF) mode of tropical Pacific decadal variability (TPDV) in the unforced control simulation. The uncertainty in CESM-LE is comparable in magnitude to that among models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5), suggesting the contribution of internal variability to the intermodel uncertainty in ENSO amplitude change. However, the causations between changes in ENSO amplitude and the mean state are distinct between CESM-LE and CMIP5 ensemble. The CESM-LE results indicate that a large ensemble of 15 members is needed to separate the relative contributions to ENSO amplitude change over the twenty-first century between forced response and internal variability.

  13. Interdecadal Change in the Relationship Between the North Pacific Oscillation and the Pacific Meridional Mode and Its Impact on ENSO

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shin, So-Jung; An, Soon-Il

    2018-02-01

    Two leading but independent modes of Northern Pacific atmospheric circulation: the North Pacific Oscillation (NPO) and the Pacific Meridional Mode (PMM), are known external triggers of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) by the sequential migration of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies into the tropics possibly by means of wind-evaporation-SST (WES) feedbacks. Because of the similar roles of NPO and PMM, most previous studies have explored them with no separation. Here, we investigate their independent and combined effects in triggering ENSO, and find that when the NPO and PMM occur simultaneously during spring, ENSO or ENSO-like SST anomalies are generated during the following winter; whereas when either the NPO or PMM occur alone, ENSO events rarely occur. Furthermore, the relationship between NPO and PMM shows noticeable interdecadal variability, which is related to decadal changes in the mean upper-level jet stream over the North Pacific. Changes in the upper-level jet stream modify the location of the center of the Aleutian Low, which plays a role in bridging the NPO and PMM processes, especially when it migrates to the southwest. The period when NPO and PMM are well correlated coincides somewhat with the active ENSO period, and vice versa, indicating that a more efficient trigger due to combined NPO-PMM processes results in a higher variation of ENSO. Finally, analysis of the coupled model control simulations strongly supports our observational analysis results.

  14. ENSO Modulations due to Interannual Variability of Freshwater Forcing and Ocean Biology-induced Heating in the Tropical Pacific.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Rong-Hua; Gao, Chuan; Kang, Xianbiao; Zhi, Hai; Wang, Zhanggui; Feng, Licheng

    2015-12-18

    Recent studies have identified clear climate feedbacks associated with interannual variations in freshwater forcing (FWF) and ocean biology-induced heating (OBH) in the tropical Pacific. The interrelationships among the related anomaly fields are analyzed using hybrid coupled model (HCM) simulations to illustrate their combined roles in modulating the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The HCM-based supporting experiments are performed to isolate the related feedbacks, with interannually varying FWF and OBH being represented individually or collectively, which allows their effects to be examined in a clear way. It is demonstrated that the interannual freshwater forcing enhances ENSO variability and slightly prolongs the simulated ENSO period, while the interannual OBH reduces ENSO variability and slightly shortens the ENSO period, with their feedback effects tending to counteract each other.

  15. Linear dynamical modes as new variables for data-driven ENSO forecast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gavrilov, Andrey; Seleznev, Aleksei; Mukhin, Dmitry; Loskutov, Evgeny; Feigin, Alexander; Kurths, Juergen

    2018-05-01

    A new data-driven model for analysis and prediction of spatially distributed time series is proposed. The model is based on a linear dynamical mode (LDM) decomposition of the observed data which is derived from a recently developed nonlinear dimensionality reduction approach. The key point of this approach is its ability to take into account simple dynamical properties of the observed system by means of revealing the system's dominant time scales. The LDMs are used as new variables for empirical construction of a nonlinear stochastic evolution operator. The method is applied to the sea surface temperature anomaly field in the tropical belt where the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the main mode of variability. The advantage of LDMs versus traditionally used empirical orthogonal function decomposition is demonstrated for this data. Specifically, it is shown that the new model has a competitive ENSO forecast skill in comparison with the other existing ENSO models.

  16. The preconditioning role of Tropical Atlantic Variability in the development of the ENSO teleconnection: implications for the prediction of Nordeste rainfall

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giannini, A.; Saravanan, R.; Chang, P.

    A comparison of rainfall variability in the semi-arid Brazilian Nordeste in observations and in two sets of model simulations leads to the conclusion that the evolving interaction between Tropical Atlantic Variability (TAV) and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon can explain two puzzling features of ENSO's impact on the Nordeste: (1) the event-to-event unpredictability of ENSO's impact; (2) the greater impact of cold rather than warm ENSO events during the past 50 years. The explanation is in the `preconditioning' role of Tropical Atlantic Variability. When, in seasons prior to the mature phase of ENSO, the tropical Atlantic happens to be evolving consistently with the development expected of the ENSO teleconnection, ENSO and TAV add up to force large anomalies in Nordeste rainfall. When it happens to be evolving in opposition to the canonical development of ENSO, then the net outcome is less obvious, but also less anomalous. The more frequent occurrence of tropical Atlantic conditions consistent with those that develop during a cold ENSO event, i.e. of a negative meridional sea surface temperature gradient, explains the weaker warm ENSO and stronger cold ENSO anomalies in Nordeste rainfall of the latter part of the twentieth century. Close monitoring of the evolution of the tropical Atlantic in seasons prior to the mature phase of ENSO should lead to an enhanced forecast potential.

  17. ENSO events are induced by the Global Atmosphere Oscillation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Serykh, Ilya; Byshev, Vladimir; Neiman, Victor; Romanov, Juri

    2014-05-01

    The large-scale anomalies in the planetary fields of the principal hydro-meteorological characteristics were found to appear prior the beginning and during the main phase of the El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon in the Pacific Ocean. The anomalies were interpreted as manifestation of the interannual Global Atmosphere Oscillation (GAO) in dynamics of the modern climatic system. The key feature of the GAO baric structure is a large-scale positive anomaly in tropical area (30N-30S, 50W-170E) surrounded by negative anomaly bending its outer boundaries. Eventually, such reconstruction of the atmospheric pressure field over tropical zone as a consequence of the GAO leads to Walker circulation cell reversal which is immediately followed by the next El Niño process starting. Spatio-temporal structure of the anomalous hydro-meteorological fields developing under impact of the GAO was analyzed using the monthly-mean atmospheric pressure data at sea level (HadSLP2) and near-surface temperature (CRUTEM4) prepared by GB Met Office Hadley Centre for period of 1948-2012, also we used wind data from US NCEP/NCAR reanalysis for the same period. Due to the presence of feed-forwards and feedbacks in the climate dynamics, the large-scale anomalies of characteristics appearing after the GAO cause their back effect on the system of interaction of the ocean-atmosphere-land. This is the secondary impact which can be implemented either by direct exchange of properties between the adjacent areas (this is seen most explicitly in the Indo-Pacific Region), or owing to teleconnections between the concrete climatic subsystems in different parts of the Earth. It is apparently that the secondary, or indirect, GAO impact spreading through the system of general atmospheric circulation has a certain phase shift in different areas, which depends first on the distance from the respective climatic anomalies, in particular, from the most intensive of them, appearing in the equatorial

  18. Role of tropical Indian and Atlantic Oceans variability on ENSO

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prodhomme, Chloé; Terray, Pascal; Masson, Sebastien; Boschat, Ghyslaine

    2014-05-01

    There are strong evidences of an interaction between tropical Indian, Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. Nevertheless, these interactions remain deeply controversial. While some authors claim the tropical Indian and Atlantic oceans only play a passive role with respect to ENSO, others suggest a driving role for these two basins on ENSO. The mecanisms underlying these relations are not fully understood and, in the Indian Ocean, the possible role of both modes of tropical variability (the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and the Indian Ocean Basin mode (IOB)) remain unclear. To better quantify and understand how the variability of the tropical Indian and Atlantic Oceans impact ENSO variability, we performed two sensitivity experiments using the SINTEX-F2 coupled model. For each experiment, we suppressed the variability of SST and the air-sea coupling in either the tropical Indian Ocean or tropical Atlantic Ocean by applying a strong nudging of the SST to the observed SST climatology. In both experiments, the ENSO periodicity increases. In the Atlantic experiment, our understanding of this increased periodicity is drastically limited by the strongly biased mean state in this region. Conversely, in the Indian Ocean experiment, the increase of ENSO periodicity is related to the absence of the IOB following the El Niño peak, which leads to a decrease of westerly winds in the western Pacific during late winter and spring after the peak. These weaker westerlies hinders the transition to a La Niña phase and thus increase the duration and periodicity of the event.

  19. Relative Contributions of Mean-State Shifts and ENSO-Driven Variability to Precipitation Changes in a Warming Climate*

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bonfils, Céline J. W.; Santer, Benjamin D.; Phillips, Thomas J.; Marvel, Kate; Leung, L. Ruby; Doutriaux, Charles; Capotondi, Antonietta

    2015-12-01

    The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is an important driver of regional hydroclimate variability through far-reaching teleconnections. Most climate models project an increase in the frequency of extreme El Niño events under increased greenhouse-gas (GHG) forcing. However, it is unclear how other aspects of ENSO and ENSO-driven teleconnections will evolve in the future. Here, we identify in 20th century sea-surface temperature (SST) observations a time-invariant ENSO-like (ENSOL) pattern that is largely uncontaminated by GHG forcing. We use this pattern to investigate the future precipitation (P) response to ENSO-like SST anomalies. Models that better capture observed ENSOL characteristics produce P teleconnection patterns that are in better accord with observations and more stationary in the 21st century. We decompose the future P response to ENSOL into the sum of three terms: (1) the change in P mean state, (2) the historical P response to ENSOL, and (3) a future enhancement in the P response to ENSOL. In many regions, this last term can aggravate the P extremes associated with ENSO variability. This simple decomposition allows us to identify regions likely to experience ENSOL-induced P changes that are without precedent in the current climate.

  20. Sensitivity of Water Scarcity Events to ENSO-Driven Climate Variability at the Global Scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Veldkamp, T. I. E.; Eisner, S.; Wada, Y.; Aerts, J. C. J. H.; Ward, P. J.

    2015-01-01

    Globally, freshwater shortage is one of the most dangerous risks for society. Changing hydro-climatic and socioeconomic conditions have aggravated water scarcity over the past decades. A wide range of studies show that water scarcity will intensify in the future, as a result of both increased consumptive water use and, in some regions, climate change. Although it is well-known that El Niño- Southern Oscillation (ENSO) affects patterns of precipitation and drought at global and regional scales, little attention has yet been paid to the impacts of climate variability on water scarcity conditions, despite its importance for adaptation planning. Therefore, we present the first global-scale sensitivity assessment of water scarcity to ENSO, the most dominant signal of climate variability. We show that over the time period 1961-2010, both water availability and water scarcity conditions are significantly correlated with ENSO-driven climate variability over a large proportion of the global land area (> 28.1 %); an area inhabited by more than 31.4% of the global population. We also found, however, that climate variability alone is often not enough to trigger the actual incidence of water scarcity events. The sensitivity of a region to water scarcity events, expressed in terms of land area or population exposed, is determined by both hydro-climatic and socioeconomic conditions. Currently, the population actually impacted by water scarcity events consists of 39.6% (CTA: consumption-to-availability ratio) and 41.1% (WCI: water crowding index) of the global population, whilst only 11.4% (CTA) and 15.9% (WCI) of the global population is at the same time living in areas sensitive to ENSO-driven climate variability. These results are contrasted, however, by differences in growth rates found under changing socioeconomic conditions, which are relatively high in regions exposed to water scarcity events. Given the correlations found between ENSO and water availability and scarcity

  1. The influence of boreal spring Arctic Oscillation on the subsequent winter ENSO in CMIP5 models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Shangfeng; Chen, Wen; Yu, Bin

    2017-05-01

    This study examines the influence of boreal spring Arctic Oscillation (AO) on the subsequent winter El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) using 15 climate model outputs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Results show that, out of the 15 CMIP5 models, CCSM4 and CNRM-CM5 can well reproduce the significant AO-ENSO connection. These two models capture the observed spring AO related anomalous cyclone (anticyclone) over the subtropical western-central North Pacific, and westerly (easterly) winds over the tropical western-central Pacific. In contrast, the spring AO-related anomalous circulation over the subtropical North Pacific is insignificant in the other 13 models, and the simulations in these models cannot capture the significant influence of the spring AO on ENSO. Further analyses indicate that the performance of the CMIP5 simulations in reproducing the AO-ENSO connection is related to the ability in simulating the spring North Pacific synoptic eddy intensity and the spring AO's Pacific component. Strong synoptic-scale eddy intensity results in a strong synoptic eddy feedback on the mean flow, leading to strong cyclonic circulation anomalies over the subtropical North Pacific, which contributes to a significant AO-ENSO connection. In addition, a strong spring AO's Pacific component and associated easterly wind anomalies to its south may provide more favorable conditions for the development of spring AO-related cyclonic circulation anomalies over the subtropical North Pacific.

  2. The Influence of ENSO to the Rainfall Variability in North Sumatra Province

    Science.gov (United States)

    Irwandi, H.; Pusparini, N.; Ariantono, J. Y.; Kurniawan, R.; Tari, C. A.; Sudrajat, A.

    2018-04-01

    The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a global phenomenon that affects the variability of rainfall in North Sumatra. The influence of ENSO will be different for each region. This review will analyse the influence of ENSO activity on seasonal and annual rainfall variability. In this research, North Sumatra Province will be divided into 4 (four) regions based on topographical conditions, such as: East Coast (EC), East Slope (ES), Mountains (MT), and West Coast (WC). The method used was statistical and descriptive analysis. Data used in this research were rainfall data from 15 stations / climate observation posts which spread in North Sumatera region and also anomaly data of Nino 3.4 region from period 1981-2016. The results showed that the active El Niño had an effect on the decreasing the rainfall during the period of DJF, JJA and SON in East Coast, East Slope, and Mountains with the decreasing of average percentage of annual rainfall up to 7%. On the contrary, the active La Nina had an effect on the addition of rainfall during the period DJF and JJA in the East Coast and Mountains with the increasing of average percentage of annual rainfall up to 6%.

  3. Tree-ring analysis of winter climate variability and ENSO in Mediterranean California

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Woodhouse, C.A.; Univ. of Colorado, Boulder

    2006-01-01

    The feasibility of using tree-ring data as a proxy for regional precipitation and ENSO events in the Mediterranean region of California is explored. A transect of moisture-sensitive tree-ring sites, extending from southwestern to north-central California, documents regional patterns of winter precipitation and replicates the regional response to ENSO events in the 20. century. Proxy records of ENSO were used with the tree-ring data to examine precipitation/ENSO patterns in the 18. and 19. centuries. Results suggest some temporal and spatial variability in the regional precipitation response to ENSO over the last three centuries

  4. Interannual hydroclimatic variability and the 2009-2011 extreme ENSO phases in Colombia: from Andean glaciers to Caribbean lowlands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bedoya-Soto, Juan Mauricio; Poveda, Germán; Trenberth, Kevin E.; Vélez-Upegui, Jorge Julián

    2018-03-01

    During 2009-2011, Colombia experienced extreme hydroclimatic events associated with the extreme phases of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Here, we study the dynamics of diverse land-atmosphere phenomena involved in such anomalous events at continental, regional, and local scales. Standardized anomalies of precipitation, 2-m temperature, total column water (TCW), volumetric soil water (VSW), temperature at 925 hPa, surface sensible heat (SSH), latent heat (SLH), evaporation (EVP), and liquid water equivalent thickness (LWET) are analyzed to assess atmosphere-land controls and relationships over tropical South America (TropSA) during 1986-2013 (long term) and 2009-2011 (ENSO extreme phases). An assessment of the interannual covariability between precipitation and 2-m temperature is performed using singular value decomposition (SVD) to identify the dominant spatiotemporal modes of hydroclimatic variability over the region's largest river basins (Amazon, Orinoco, Tocantins, Magdalena-Cauca, and Essequibo). ENSO, its evolution in time, and strong and consistent spatial structures emerge as the dominant mode of variability. In situ anomalies during both extreme phases of ENSO 2009-2011 over the Magdalena-Cauca River basins are linked at the continental scale. The ENSO-driven hydroclimatic effects extend from the diurnal cycle to interannual timescales, as reflected in temperature data from tropical glaciers and the rain-snow boundary in the highest peaks of the Central Andes of Colombia to river levels along the Caribbean lowlands of the Magdalena-Cauca River basin.

  5. Relationship between annual precipitation variability and ENSO in Southern California for the Common Era (last 2,000 years)

    Science.gov (United States)

    DU, X.; Hendy, I. L.; Hinnov, L.; Brown, E. T.; Schimmelmann, A.; Pak, D. K.

    2017-12-01

    The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has a major influence on Southern California's hydroclimate as demonstrated by both historical observations and model simulations. Santa Barbara Basin (SBB) off Southern California preserves a unique varved (i.e. annually laminated) marine sedimentary archive of modern and Holocene hydroclimate variability, notably including the transition from the regionally dry Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) to the wetter Little Ice Age (LIA). Here we present sub-annually resolved scanning XRF elemental counts for the last 2,000 years in SBB from core SPR0901-03KC. Titanium (associated with silicate minerals) is delivered more efficiently to SBB sediments during times of enhanced river flow and in the Mediterranean climate of Southern California, river flow only occurs after precipitation. The Ti record suggests that the precipitation frequency was reduced during the MCA except for a pluvial episode at CE 1075-1121, but increased during the LIA. Time series analysis of Ti counts indicates ENSO variability robustly increased during the intervals CE 450-520, 650-720, 980-1150, 1380-1550 and 1720-1750, and experienced relatively quiescent intervals between CE 50-150, 250-400, 550-650, 750-950, 1150-1280 and 1580-1620. Generally the LIA in Southern California is characterized by more active ENSO variability with long periodicities (4-7 yr) and multi-decadal variability (54 yr). MCA drought episodes were associated with less active ENSO. Active ENSO variability in Southern California during the last 2,000 years coincided with reconstructed southward migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) suggesting the ITCZ may play a role in the waxing and waning of ENSO teleconnections between the central Pacific and the west coast of North America.

  6. Role of the upper ocean structure in the response of ENSO-like SST variability to global warming

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yeh, Sang-Wook [Hanyang University, Department of Environmental Marine Science, Ansan (Korea); Dewitte, Boris [Laboratoire d' Etude en Geophysique et Oceanographie Spatiale, Toulouse (France); Yim, Bo Young; Noh, Yign [Yonsei University, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Global Environmental Laboratory, Seoul (Korea)

    2010-08-15

    The response of El Nino and Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-like variability to global warming varies comparatively between the two different climate system models, i.e., the Meteorological Research Institute (MRI) and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) Coupled General Circulation Models (CGCMs). Here, we examine the role of the simulated upper ocean temperature structure in the different sensitivities of the simulated ENSO variability in the models based on the different level of CO{sub 2} concentrations. In the MRI model, the sea surface temperature (SST) undergoes a rather drastic modification, namely a tendency toward a permanent El Nino-like state. This is associated with an enhanced stratification which results in greater ENSO amplitude for the MRI model. On the other hand, the ENSO simulated by GFDL model is hardly modified although the mean temperature in the near surface layer increases. In order to understand the associated mechanisms we carry out a vertical mode decomposition of the mean equatorial stratification and a simplified heat balance analysis using an intermediate tropical Pacific model tuned from the CGCM outputs. It is found that in the MRI model the increased stratification is associated with an enhancement of the zonal advective feedback and the non-linear advection. In the GFDL model, on the other hand, the thermocline variability and associated anomalous vertical advection are reduced in the eastern equatorial Pacific under global warming, which erodes the thermocline feedback and explains why the ENSO amplitude is reduced in a warmer climate in this model. It is suggested that change in stratification associated with global warming impacts the equatorial wave dynamics in a way that enhances the second baroclinic mode over the gravest one, which leads to the change in feedback processes in the CGCMs. Our results illustrate that the upper ocean vertical structure simulated in the CGCMs is a key parameter of the sensitivity of ENSO

  7. El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO and global warming

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Nyenzi

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available It is widely accepted by the international scientific community that human activities have increased atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHG and aerosols since the pre-industrial era. This increase has contributed to most of the warming (0.6±0.2°C observed over the 20th century, land areas warming more than the oceans, with the 1990s very likely to be the warmest decade of the 20th century (IPCC, 2001. How this warming influences the occurrence, severity and frequency of ENSO episodes remains highly uncertain. The IPCC (2001 assessment of the scientific literature found insufficient evidence to suggest any direct attribution between increase in ENSO events that occurred in the last 20 to 30 years of the 20th century and global warming (IPCC, 2001. However, assessments carried out since then (e.g. IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4, in preparations suggest El Niño events have become more frequent, persistent and intense during the last 20 to 30 years compared to the previous 100 years. Attribution to global warming, however, remains highly uncertain. Efforts to simulate and model past, present and future behaviour of ENSO under a warming world due to enhanced GHG concentrations produce conflicting results. Since substantial internally-generated variability of ENSO behaviour on multi-decadal to century timescales occurs in long, unforced atmospheric-oceanic general circulation model (AOGCM simulations, the attribution of past and future changes in ENSO amplitude and frequency to external forcing like GHG concentrations cannot be made with certainty. Such attribution would require extensive use of ensemble climate experiments or long experiments with stabilised GHG forcing. Although there are now better ENSO simulations in AOGCM, further model improvements are needed to simulate a more realistic Pacific climatology and seasonal cycle of the key modes influencing the climate of the region, as well as more realistic ENSO variability

  8. Investigation of hydrological variability in the Korean Peninsula with the ENSO teleconnections

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Yoon

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available This study analyzes nonlinear behavior links with atmospheric teleconnections between hydrologic variables and climate indices using statistical models during warm season (June to September over the Korean Peninsula (KP. The ocean-related major climate factor, which is the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO was used to analyze the atmospheric teleconnections by principal component analysis (PCA and a singular spectrum analysis (SSA. The nonlinear lag time correlations between climate indices and hydrologic variables are calculated by Mutual Information (MI technique. The nonlinear correlation coefficients (CCs by MI were higher than linear CCs, and ENSO shows a few months of lag time correlation. The warm season hydrologic variables in KP shows a significant increasing tendency during the warm pool (WP, and the cold tongue (CT El Niño decaying years shows a significant decreasing tendency, while the La Niña year shows slightly above normal conditions, respectively. A better understanding of the relationship between climate indices and streamflow, and their local impacts can help to prepare for the river discharge management by water managers and scientists. Furthermore, these results provide useful data for policy makers and end-users to support long-range water resources prediction and water-related policy.

  9. ENSO and interdecadal climate variability over the last century documented by geochemical records of two coral cores from the South West Pacific

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Ourbak

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available The south west Pacific is affected by climatic phenomena such as ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation or the PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Near-monthly resolution calibrations of Sr/Ca, U/Ca and δ18Oc were made on corals taken from New Caledonia and Wallis Island. These geochemical variations could be linked to SST (sea surface temperature and SSS (sea surface salinity variations over the last two decades, itselves dependent on ENSO occurrences. On the other hand, near-half-yearly resolution over the last century smoothes seasonal and interannual climate signals, but emphasizes low frequency climate variability.

  10. Decadal modulation of the ENSO-East Asian winter monsoon relationship by the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geng, Xin; Zhang, Wenjun; Stuecker, Malte F.; Liu, Peng; Jin, Fei-Fei; Tan, Guirong

    2017-10-01

    This work investigates the decadal modulation of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) relationship by the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). A stable ENSO-EAWM relationship is found during the positive AMO phase but not during the negative phase. While the impact of El Niño events on the EAWM does not depend on the AMO phase, a different picture is observed for La Niña events. The La Niña boreal winter season coincides with a strengthened EAWM during a positive AMO phase and a weakened EAWM during a negative AMO phase. We suggest that the AMO's modulating effect mainly comprises two pathways that influence ENSO's impact on the EAWM. On one hand, when La Niña coincides with a positive AMO, the warm SST anomalies over the western North Pacific (WNP) are amplified both in intensity and spatial extent, which favors strengthened WNP cyclonic anomalies and an enhanced EAWM. During La Niña with a negative AMO, only very weak SST anomalies occur over the WNP with reduced WNP cyclonic anomalies that are confined to the tropics, thus having little effect on the EAWM. On the other hand, an eastward-propagating Rossby wavetrain across the mid-high latitudes of Eurasia during a warm AMO phase strengthens the Siberian high and thus leads to a strengthened EAWM, while during a cold AMO phase the Siberian high is weakened, leading to a reduced EAWM. In contrast, El Niño and its associated atmospheric responses are relatively strong and stable, independent of the AMO phase. These results carry important implications to the seasonal-to-interannual predictability associated with ENSO.

  11. Shifting patterns of ENSO variability from a 492-year South Pacific coral core

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tangri, N.; Linsley, B. K.; Mucciarone, D.; Dunbar, R. B.

    2017-12-01

    Anticipating the impacts of ENSO in a changing climate requires detailed reconstructions of changes in its timing, amplitude, and spatial pattern, as well as attempts to attribute those changes to external forcing or internal variability. A continuous coral δ18O record from American Samoa, in the tropical South Pacific, sheds light on almost five centuries of these changes. We find evidence of internally-driven 50-100 year cycles with broad peaks of high variability punctuated by short transitions of low variability. We see a long, slow trend towards more frequent ENSO events, punctuated by sharp decreases in frequency; the 20th century in particular shows a strong trend towards higher-frequency ENSO. Due to the unique location of American Samoa with respect to ENSO sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, we infer changes in the spatial pattern of ENSO. American Samoa currently lies on the ENSO 3.4 nodal line - the boomerang shape that separates waters warmed by El Niño from those that cool. Closer examination reveals that SST around American Samoa displays opposing responses to Eastern and Central Pacific ENSO events. However, this has not always been the case; in the late 19th and early 20th century, SST responded similarly to both flavors of ENSO. We interpret this to mean a geographic narrowing towards the equator of the eastern Pacific El Niño SST anomaly pattern in the first half of the 20th century.

  12. Variability modes of precipitation along a Central Mediterranean area and their relations with ENSO, NAO, and other climatic patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kalimeris, Anastasios; Ranieri, Ezio; Founda, Dimitra; Norrant, Caroline

    2017-12-01

    This study analyses a century-long set of precipitation time series in the Central Mediterranean (encompassing the Greek Ionian and the Italian Puglia regions) and investigates the statistically significant modes of the interannual precipitation variability using efficient methods of spectral decomposition. The statistical relations and the possible physical couplings between the detected modes and the global or hemispheric patterns of climatic variability (the El Niño Southern Oscillation or ENSO, the North Atlantic Oscillation or NAO, the East Atlantic or EA, the Scandinavian or SCAND, and others) were examined in the time-frequency domain and low-order synchronization events were sought. Significant modes of precipitation variability were detected in the Taranto Gulf and the southern part of the Greek Ionian region at the sub-decadal scales (mostly driven by the SCAND pattern) and particularly at the decadal and quasi-decadal scales, where strong relations found with the ENSO activity (under complex implications of EA and NAO) prior to the 1930s or after the early-1970s. The precipitation variations in the Adriatic stations of Puglia are dominated by significant bi-decadal modes which found to be coherent with the ENSO activity and also weakly related with the Atlantic Ocean sea surface temperature intrinsic variability. Additionally, important discontinuities characterize the evolution of precipitation in certain stations of the Taranto Gulf and the Greek Ionian region during the early-1960s and particularly during the early-1970s, followed by significant reductions in the mean annual precipitation. These discontinuities seem to be associated with regional effects of NAO and SCAND, probably combined with the impact of the 1970s climatic shift in the Pacific and the ENSO variability.

  13. ENSO influence on the interannual variability of the Red Sea convergence zone and associated rainfall

    KAUST Repository

    Dasari, Hari Prasad

    2017-07-18

    The Red Sea convergence zone (RSCZ) is formed by opposite surface winds blowing from northwest to southeast directions at around 18°-19°N between October and January. A reverse-oriented, low-level monsoon trough at 850hPa, known as the Red Sea trough (RST), transfers moisture from the southern Red Sea to RSCZ. The positions of the RSCZ and RST and the intensity of the RST have been identified as important factors in modulating weather and climatic conditions across the Middle East. Here, we investigate the influence of the El Niño southern oscillation (ENSO) on the interannual variability of RSCZ, RST, and regional rainfall during winter months. Our results indicate that El Niño (warm ENSO phase) favours a shift of the RSCZ to the north and a strengthening of the RST in the same direction. Conversely, during November and December of La Niña periods (cold ENSO phase), the RSCZ shift to the south and the RST strengthens in the same direction. During El Niño periods, southeasterly wind speeds increase (20-30%) over the southern Red Sea and northwesterly wind speeds decrease (10-15%) over the northern Red Sea. Noticeable increases in the number of rainy days and the intensity of rain events are observed during El Niño phases. These increases are associated with colder than normal air intrusion at lower levels from the north combined with warm air intrusion from the south over the RSCZ. Our analysis suggests that during El Niño winters, warmer sea surface temperatures and higher convective instability over the Red Sea favour local storms conditions and increase rainfall over the Red Sea and adjoining regions.

  14. Proxy Records of the Indonesian Low and the El Ni{tilde n}o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) from Stable Isotope Measurements of Indonesian Reef Corals

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moore, M.D.

    1995-12-31

    The Earth`s largest atmospheric convective center is the Indonesian Low. It generates the Australasian monsoon, drives the zonal tropospheric Walker Circulation, and is implicated in the genesis of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The long-term variability of the Indonesian Low is poorly characterized, yet such information is crucial for evaluating whether changes in the strength and frequency of ENSO events are a possible manifestation of global warming. Stable oxygen isotope ratios ({delta}{sup 18}O) in shallow-water reef coral skeletons track topical convective activity over hundreds of years because the input of isotopically-depleted rainwater dilutes seawater {delta}{sup 18}O. Corals also impose a temperature-dependent fractionation on {delta}{sup 18}O, but where annual rainfall is high and sea surface temperature (SST) variability is low the freshwater flux effect dominates.

  15. Interaction between Tropical Atlantic Variability and El Niño-Southern Oscillation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saravanan, R.; Chang, Ping

    2000-07-01

    The interaction between tropical Atlantic variability and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is investigated using three ensembles of atmospheric general circulation model integrations. The integrations are forced by specifying observed sea surface temperature (SST) variability over a forcing domain. The forcing domain is the global ocean for the first ensemble, limited to the tropical ocean for the second ensemble, and further limited to the tropical Atlantic region for the third ensemble. The ensemble integrations show that extratropical SST anomalies have little impact on tropical variability, but the effect of ENSO is pervasive in the Tropics. Consistent with previous studies, the most significant influence of ENSO is found during the boreal spring season and is associated with an anomalous Walker circulation. Two important aspects of ENSO's influence on tropical Atlantic variability are noted. First, the ENSO signal contributes significantly to the `dipole' correlation structure between tropical Atlantic SST and rainfall in the Nordeste Brazil region. In the absence of the ENSO signal, the correlations are dominated by SST variability in the southern tropical Atlantic, resulting in less of a dipole structure. Second, the remote influence of ENSO also contributes to positive correlations between SST anomalies and downward surface heat flux in the tropical Atlantic during the boreal spring season. However, even when ENSO forcing is absent, the model integrations provide evidence for a positive surface heat flux feedback in the deep Tropics, which is analyzed in a companion study by Chang et al. The analysis of model simulations shows that interannual atmospheric variability in the tropical Pacific-Atlantic system is dominated by the interaction between two distinct sources of tropical heating: (i) an equatorial heat source in the eastern Pacific associated with ENSO and (ii) an off-equatorial heat source associated with SST anomalies near the Caribbean

  16. ENSO-driven nutrient variability recorded by central equatorial Pacific corals

    Science.gov (United States)

    LaVigne, M.; Nurhati, I. S.; Cobb, K. M.; McGregor, H. V.; Sinclair, D. J.; Sherrell, R. M.

    2012-12-01

    Recent evidence for shifts in global ocean primary productivity suggests that surface ocean nutrient availability is a key link between global climate and ocean carbon cycling. Time-series records from satellite, in situ buoy sensors, and bottle sampling have documented the impact of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on equatorial Pacific hydrography and broad changes in biogeochemistry since the late 1990's, however, data are sparse prior to this. Here we use a new paleoceanographic nutrient proxy, coral P/Ca, to explore the impact of ENSO on nutrient availability in the central equatorial Pacific at higher-resolution than available from in situ nutrient data. Corals from Christmas (157°W 2°N) and Fanning (159°W 4°N) Islands recorded a well-documented decrease in equatorial upwelling as a ~40% decrease in P/Ca during the 1997-98 ENSO cycle, validating the application of this proxy to Pacific Porites corals. We compare the biogeochemical shifts observed through the 1997-98 event with two pre-TOGA-TAO ENSO cycles (1982-83 and 1986-87) reconstructed from a longer Christmas Island core. All three corals revealed ~30-40% P/Ca depletions during ENSO warming as a result of decreased regional wind stress, thermocline depth, and equatorial upwelling velocity. However, at the termination of each El Niño event, surface nutrients did not return to pre-ENSO levels for ~4-12 months after, SST as a result of increased biological draw down of surface nutrients. These records demonstrate the utility of high-resolution coral nutrient archives for understanding the impact of tropical Pacific climate on the nutrient and carbon cycling of this key region.

  17. Reconstruction of El Niño - Southern oscillation variability during the Holocene

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Donders, T.H.

    2005-01-01

    The El Niño – Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the tropical Pacific constitutes the largest source of global climate variability on interannual timescales. Every 2-7 year the El Niño phenomenon causes altered Pacific circulation, leading to widespread droughts and floods. However, the exact mechanisms

  18. ENSO-induced inter-annual sea level variability in the Singapore strait

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Soumya, M.; Vethamony, P.; Tkalich, P.

    Sea level data from four tide gauge stations in the SS (Tanjong Pagar, Sultan Shoal, Sembawang and Raffles Lighthouse) for the period 1970-2012 were extracted to study the ENSO-induced interannual sea level variability Sea level during this period...

  19. Effect of Modulation of ENSO by Decadal and Multidecadal Ocean-Atmospheric Oscillations on Continental US Streamflows

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, S.; Abebe, A.; Srivastava, P.; Chaubey, I.

    2017-12-01

    Evaluation of the influences of individual and coupled oceanic-atmospheric oscillations on streamflow at a regional scale in the United States is the focus of this study. The main climatic oscillations considered in this study are: El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Unimpacted or minimally impacted by water management streamflow data from the Model Parameter Estimation Experiment (MOPEX) were used in this study. Two robust and novel non-parametric tests, namely, the rank based partial least square (PLS) and the Joint Rank Fit (JRFit) procedures were used to identify the individual and coupled effect of oscillations on streamflow across continental U.S. (CONUS), respectively. Moreover, the interactive effects of ENSO with decadal and multidecadal cycles were tested and quantified using the JRFit interaction test. The analysis of ENSO indicated higher streamflows during La Niña phase compared to the El Niño phase in Northwest, Northeast and the lower part of Ohio Valley while the opposite occurs for rest of the climatic regions in US. Two distinct climate regions (Northwest and Southeast) were identified from the PDO analysis where PDO negative phase results in increased streamflow than PDO positive phase. Consistent negative and positive correlated regions around the CONUS were identified for AMO and NAO, respectively. The interaction test of ENSO with decadal and multidecadal oscillations showed that El Niño is modulated by the negative phase of PDO and NAO, and the positive phase of AMO, respectively, in the Upper Midwest. However, La Niña is modulated by the positive phase of AMO and PDO in Ohio Valley and Northeast while in Southeast and the South it is modulated by AMO negative phase. Results of this study will assist water managers to understand the streamflow change patterns across the CONUS at decadal and multi-decadal time scales. The

  20. The ENSO Impact on Predicting World Cocoa Prices

    OpenAIRE

    Ubilava, David; Helmers, Claes Gustav

    2011-01-01

    Cocoa beans are produced in equatorial and sub-equatorial regions of West Africa, Southeast Asia and South America. These are also the regions most affected by El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) -- a climatic anomaly affecting temperature and precipitation in many parts of the world. Thus, ENSO, has a potential of affecting cocoa production and, subsequently, prices on the world market. This study investigates the benefits of using a measure of ENSO variable in world cocoa price forecasting ...

  1. Sensitivity of Sahelian Precipitation to Desert Dust under ENSO variability: a regional modeling study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jordan, A.; Zaitchik, B. F.; Gnanadesikan, A.

    2016-12-01

    Mineral dust is estimated to comprise over half the total global aerosol burden, with a majority coming from the Sahara and Sahel region. Bounded by the Sahara Desert to the north and the Sahelian Savannah to the south, the Sahel experiences high interannual rainfall variability and a short rainy season during the boreal summer months. Observation-based data for the past three decades indicates a reduced dust emission trend, together with an increase in greening and surface roughness within the Sahel. Climate models used to study regional precipitation changes due to Saharan dust yield varied results, both in sign convention and magnitude. Inconsistency of model estimates drives future climate projections for the region that are highly varied and uncertain. We use the NASA-Unified Weather Research and Forecasting (NU-WRF) model to quantify the interaction and feedback between desert dust aerosol and Sahelian precipitation. Using nested domains at fine spatial resolution we resolve changes to mesoscale atmospheric circulation patterns due to dust, for representative phases of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The NU-WRF regional earth system model offers both advanced land surface data and resolvable detail of the mechanisms of the impact of Saharan dust. Results are compared to our previous work assessed over the Western Sahel using the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) CM2Mc global climate model, and to other previous regional climate model studies. This prompts further research to help explain the dust-precipitation relationship and recent North African dust emission trends. This presentation will offer a quantitative analysis of differences in radiation budget, energy and moisture fluxes, and atmospheric dynamics due to desert dust aerosol over the Sahel.

  2. Contrasting biogeochemical responses of ENSO induced upwelling variability in the Humboldt Current System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Franco, Ana C.; Gruber, Nicolas; Münnich, Matthias

    2017-04-01

    The Humboldt Current System (HCS) is one of the most productive ecosystems in the world. This high productivity is supported by a large input of nutrients from the subsurface layers to the surface due to year-round upwelling. However, upwelling also supplies waters with low pH and low aragonite saturation state potentially affecting many organisms, especially those that calcify. The influence, extent and source of upwelled water vary substantially on interannual timescales in association with the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, generating natural contrasting responses on the biogeochemistry of this system. Here we analyze these responses using an eddy resolving, basin-scale ocean model that covers the whole Pacific Ocean with high resolution (4 km) on the west coast of South America. We performed a simulation of the last 30 years (hindcast simulation) that allows us to investigate the influence of at least eight El Niño episodes and eight La Niña episodes on productivity variations and changes in oxygen concentration and aragonite saturation state. An absolute change in surface omega aragonite of almost 2 units, as well as an absolute change of the aragonite saturation depth of 200 m result from the change of an El Niño phase to a La Niña phase. This variability is on the same order of magnitude as the projected change in the aragonite saturation state in a centennial timescale. During La Niña events, a lower aragonite saturation state values and reduced oxygen concentration in the surface layer are a direct consequence of enhanced upwelling and increased net primary productivity. The opposite is true during El Niño events, where high values of omega aragonite occur in concordance with extraordinarily low net primary productivity values.

  3. Do our reconstructions of ENSO have too much low-frequency variability?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loope, G. R.; Overpeck, J. T.

    2017-12-01

    Reconstructing the spectrum of Pacific SST variability has proven to be difficult both because of complications with proxy systems such as tree rings and the relatively small number of records from the tropical Pacific. We show that the small number of long coral δ18O and Sr/Ca records has caused a bias towards having too much low-frequency variability in PCR, CPS, and RegEM reconstructions of Pacific variability. This occurs because the individual coral records used in the reconstructions have redder spectra than the shared signal (e.g. ENSO). This causes some of the unshared, low-frequency signal from local climate, salinity and possibly coral biology to bleed into the reconstruction. With enough chronologies in a reconstruction, this unshared noise cancels out but the problem is exacerbated in our longest reconstructions where fewer records are available. Coral proxies tend to have more low-frequency variability than SST observations so this problem is smaller but can still be seen in pseudoproxy experiments using observations and reanalysis data. The identification of this low-frequency bias in coral reconstructions helps bring the spectra of ENSO reconstructions back into line with both models and observations. Although our analysis is mostly constrained to the 20th century due to lack of sufficient data, we expect that as more long chronologies are developed, the low-frequency signal in ENSO reconstructions will be greatly reduced.

  4. NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC) El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Diagnostics Discussion

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The ENSO Diagnostics Discussion (EDD) is issued by NOAA Climate Prediction Center each month on the Thursday between the 5th and 11th with few exceptions (major...

  5. Coral based-ENSO/IOD related climate variability in Indonesia: a review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yudawati Cahyarini, Sri; Henrizan, Marfasran

    2018-02-01

    Indonesia is located in the prominent site to study climate variability as it lies between Pacific and Indian Ocean. It has consequences to the regional climate in Indonesia that its climate variability is influenced by the climate events in the Pacific oceans (e.g. ENSO) and in the Indian ocean (e.g. IOD), and monsoon as well as Indonesian Throughflow (ITF). Northwestern monsoon causes rainfall in the region of Indonesia, while reversely Southwestern monsoon causes dry season around Indonesia. The ENSO warm phase called El Nino causes several droughts in Indonesian region, reversely the La Nina causes flooding in some regions in Indonesia. However, the impact of ENSO in Indonesia is different from one place to the others. Having better understanding on the climate phenomenon and its impact to the region requires long time series climate data. Paleoclimate study which provides climate data back into hundreds to thousands even to million years overcome this requirement. Coral Sr/Ca can provide information on past sea surface temperature (SST) and paired Sr/Ca and δ18O may be used to reconstruct variations in the precipitation balance (salinity) at monthly to annual interannual resolution. Several climate studies based on coral geochemical records in Indonesia show that coral Sr/Ca and δ18O from Indonesian records SST and salinity respectively. Coral Sr/Ca from inshore Seribu islands complex shows more air temperature rather than SST. Modern coral from Timor shows the impact of ENSO and IOD to the saliniy and SST is different at Timor sea. This result should be taken into account when interpreting Paleoclimate records over Indonesia. Timor coral also shows more pronounced low frequency SST variability compared to the SST reanalysis (model). The longer data of low frequency variability will improve the understanding of warming trend in this climatically important region.

  6. The role of the intra-daily SST variability in the Indian monsoon variability and monsoon-ENSO-IOD relationships in a global coupled model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Terray, Pascal; Kamala, Kakitha; Masson, Sebastien; Madec, Gurvan [Universite Pierre et Marie Curie, LOCEAN/IPSL, CNRS/IRD/UPMC/MNHN, Paris Cedex 05 (France); Sahai, A.K. [Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune (India); Luo, Jing-Jia; Yamagata, Toshio [RIGC, Yokohama (Japan)

    2012-08-15

    The impact of diurnal SST coupling and vertical oceanic resolution on the simulation of the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) and its relationships with El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events are studied through the analysis of four integrations of a high resolution Coupled General Circulation Model (CGCM), but with different configurations. The only differences between the four integrations are the frequency of coupling between the ocean and atmosphere for the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) parameter (2 vs. 24 h coupling) and/or the vertical oceanic resolution (31 vs. 301 levels) in the CGCM. Although the summer mean tropical climate is reasonably well captured with all the configurations of the CGCM and is not significantly modified by changing the frequency of SST coupling from once to twelve per day, the ISM-ENSO teleconnections are rather poorly simulated in the two simulations in which SST is exchanged only once per day, independently of the vertical oceanic resolution used in the CGCM. Surprisingly, when 2 h SST coupling is implemented in the CGCM, the ISM-ENSO teleconnection is better simulated, particularly, the complex lead-lag relationships between the two phenomena, in which a weak ISM occurs during the developing phase of an El Nino event in the Pacific, are closely resembling the observed ones. Evidence is presented to show that these improvements are related to changes in the characteristics of the model's El Nino which has a more realistic evolution in its developing and decaying phases, a stronger amplitude and a shift to lower frequencies when a 2-hourly SST coupling strategy is implemented without any significant changes in the basic state of the CGCM. As a consequence of these improvements in ENSO variability, the lead relationships between Indo-Pacific SSTs and ISM rainfall resemble the observed patterns more closely, the ISM-ENSO teleconnection is strengthened during boreal summer and ISM rainfall power spectrum

  7. Decadal Monsoon-ENSO Relationships Reexamined

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yun, Kyung-Sook; Timmermann, Axel

    2018-02-01

    The strength of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) relationship shows considerable decadal fluctuations, which have been previously linked to low-frequency climatic processes such as shifts in ENSO's center of action or the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. However, random variability can also cause similar variations in the relationship between climate phenomena. Here we propose a statistical test to determine whether the observed time-evolving correlations between ENSO and ISMR are different from those expected from a simple stochastic null hypothesis model. The analysis focuses on the time evolution of moving correlations, their expected variance, and probabilities for rapid transitions. The results indicate that the time evolution of the observed running correlation between these climate modes is indistinguishable from a system in which the ISMR signal can be expressed as a stochastically perturbed ENSO signal. This challenges previous deterministic interpretations. Our results are further corroborated by the analysis of climate model simulations.

  8. Numerical Study on Interdecadal Modulations of ENSO-related Spring Rainfall over South China by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation

    Science.gov (United States)

    MAO, J.; WU, X.

    2017-12-01

    The spatio-temporal variations of eastern China spring rainfall are identified via empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of rain-gauge (gridded) precipitation datasets for the period 1958-2013 (1920-2013). The interannual variations of the first two leading EOF modes are linked with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), with this linkage being modulated by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). The EOF1 mode, characterized by predominant rainfall anomalies from the Yangtze River to North China (YNC), is more likely associated with out-of-phase PDO-ENSO events [i.e., El Niño during cold PDO (EN_CPDO) and La Niña during warm PDO (LN_WPDO)]. The sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) distributions of EN_CPDO (LN_WPDO) events induce a significant anomalous anticyclone (cyclone) over the western North Pacific stretching northwards to the Korean Peninsula and southern Japan, resulting in anomalous southwesterlies (northeasterlies) prevailing over eastern China and above-normal (below-normal) rainfall over YNC. In contrast, EOF2 exhibits a dipole pattern with predominantly positive rainfall anomalies over southern China along with negative anomalies over YNC, which is more likely connected to in-phase PDO-ENSO events [i.e., El Niño during warm PDO (EN_WPDO) and La Niña during cold PDO (LN_CPDO)]. EN_WPDO (LN_CPDO) events force a southwest-northeast oriented dipole-like circulation pattern leading to significant anomalous southwesterlies (northeasterlies) and above-normal (below-normal) rainfall over southern China. Numerical experiments with the CAM5 model forced by the SSTA patterns of EN_WPDO and EN_CPDO events reproduce reasonably well the corresponding anomalous atmospheric circulation patterns and spring rainfall modes over eastern China, validating the related mechanisms.

  9. ENSO variability reflected in precipitation oxygen isotopes across the Asian Summer Monsoon region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cai, Zhongyin; Tian, Lide; Bowen, Gabriel J.

    2017-10-01

    Oxygen isotope signals (δ18O) from paleo-archives are important proxies for past Asian Summer Monsoon (ASM) climate reconstruction. However, causes of interannual variation in the δ18O values of modern precipitation across the ASM region remain in argument. We report interannual δ18O variation in southern Tibetan Plateau precipitation based on long-term observations at Lhasa. These data, together with precipitation δ18O records from five Global Network of Isotopes in Precipitation (GNIP) stations and two ice core δ18O records, were used to define a regional metric of ASM precipitation δ18O (ASMOI). Back-trajectory analyses for rainy season precipitation events indicate that moisture sources vary little between years with relatively high and low δ18O values, a result that is consistent for the south (Lhasa), southeast (Bangkok), and east ASM regions (Hong Kong). In contrast, δ18O values at these three locations are significantly correlated with convection in the estimated source regions and along transport paths. These results suggest that upstream convection, rather than moisture source change, causes interannual variation in ASM precipitation δ18O values. Contrasting values of the ASMOI in El Niño and La Niña years reveal a positive isotope-El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) response (e.g., high values corresponding to warm phases), which we interpret as a response to changes in regional convection. We show that the isotope-ENSO response is amplified at high elevation sites and during La Niña years. These findings should improve interpretations of paleo-δ18O data as a proxy for past ASM variation and provide new opportunities to use data from this region to study paleo-ENSO activity.

  10. Precipitation and ice core isotopes from the Asian Summer Monsoon region reflect coherent ENSO variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cai, Z.; Tian, L.; Bowen, G. J.

    2017-12-01

    Oxygen isotope signals (δ18O) from paleo-archives are important proxies for past Asian Summer Monsoon (ASM) climate reconstruction. However, causes of interannual variation in the δ18O values of modern precipitation across the ASM region remain in argument. We report interannual δ18O variation in southern Tibetan Plateau precipitation based on long-term observations at Lhasa. These data, together with precipitation δ18O records from five Global Network of Isotopes in Precipitation (GNIP) stations and two ice core δ18O records, were used to define a regional metric of ASM precipitation δ18O (ASMOI). Back-trajectory analyses for rainy season precipitation events indicate that moisture sources vary little between years with relatively high and low δ18O values, a result that is consistent for the south (Lhasa), southeast (Bangkok), and east ASM regions (Hong Kong). In contrast, δ18O values at these three locations are significantly correlated with convection in the estimated source regions and along transport paths. These results suggest that upstream convection, rather than moisture source change, causes interannual variation in ASM precipitation δ18O values. Contrasting values of the ASMOI in El Niño and La Niña years reveal a positive isotope-El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) response (e.g., high values corresponding to warm phases), which we interpret as a response to changes in regional convection. We show that the isotope-ENSO response is amplified at high elevation sites and during La Niña years. These findings should improve interpretations of paleo-δ18O data as a proxy for past ASM variation and provide new opportunities to use data from this region to study paleo-ENSO activity.

  11. Precipitation response to the current ENSO variability in a warming world

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonfils, C.; Santer, B. D.; Phillips, T. J.; Marvel, K.; Leung, L.

    2013-12-01

    The major triggers of past and recent droughts include large modes of variability, such as ENSO, as well as specific and persistent patterns of sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs; Hoerling and Kumar, 2003, Shin et al. 2010, Schubert et al. 2009). However, alternative drought initiators are also anticipated in response to increasing greenhouse gases, potentially changing the relative contribution of ocean variability as drought initiator. They include the intensification of the current zonal wet-dry patterns (the thermodynamic mechanism, Held and Soden, 2006), a latitudinal redistribution of global precipitation (the dynamical mechanism, Seager et al. 2007, Seidel et al. 2008, Scheff and Frierson 2008) and a reduction of local soil moisture and precipitation recycling (the land-atmosphere argument). Our ultimate goal is to investigate whether the relative contribution of those mechanisms change over time in response to global warming. In this study, we first perform an EOF analysis of the 1900-1999 time series of observed global SST field and identify a simple ENSO-like (ENSOL) mode of SST variability. We show that this mode is well spatially and temporally correlated with observed worldwide regional precipitation and drought variability. We then develop concise metrics to examine the fidelity with which the CMIP5 coupled global climate models (CGCMs) capture this particular ENSO-like mode in the current climate, and their ability to replicate the observed teleconnections with precipitation. Based on the CMIP5 model projections of future climate change, we finally analyze the potential temporal variations in ENSOL to be anticipated under further global warming, as well as their associated teleconnections with precipitation (pattern, amplitude, and total response). Overall, our approach allows us to determine what will be the effect of the current ENSO-like variability (i.e., as measured with instrumental observations) on precipitation in a warming world. This

  12. Seasonal to Interannual Variability of Satellite-Based Precipitation Estimates in the Pacific Ocean Associated with ENSO from 1998 to 2014

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xueyan Hou

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Based on a widely used satellite precipitation product (TRMM Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis 3B43, we analyzed the spatiotemporal variability of precipitation over the Pacific Ocean for 1998–2014 at seasonal and interannual timescales, separately, using the conventional empirical orthogonal function (EOF and investigated the seasonal patterns associated with El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO cycles using season-reliant empirical orthogonal function (SEOF analysis. Lagged correlation analysis was also applied to derive the lead/lag correlations of the first two SEOF modes for precipitation with Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO and two types of El Niño, i.e., central Pacific (CP El Niño and eastern Pacific (EP El Niño. We found that: (1 The first two seasonal EOF modes for precipitation represent the annual cycle of precipitation variations for the Pacific Ocean and the first interannual EOF mode shows the spatiotemporal variability associated with ENSO; (2 The first SEOF mode for precipitation is simultaneously associated with the development of El Niño and most likely coincides with CP El Niño. The second SEOF mode lagged behind ENSO by one year and is associated with post-El Niño years. PDO modulates precipitation variability significantly only when ENSO occurs by strengthening and prolonging the impacts of ENSO; (3 Seasonally evolving patterns of the first two SEOF modes represent the consecutive precipitation patterns associated with the entire development of EP El Niño and the following recovery year. The most significant variation occurs over the tropical Pacific, especially in the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ and South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ; (4 Dry conditions in the western basin of the warm pool and wet conditions along the ITCZ and SPCZ bands during the mature phase of El Niño are associated with warm sea surface temperatures in the central tropical Pacific, and a subtropical anticyclone dominating

  13. El Niño-Southern oscillation variability from the late cretaceous marca shale of California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davies, Andrew; Kemp, Alan E.S.; Weedon, Graham P.; Barron, John A.

    2012-01-01

    Changes in the possible behavior of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) with global warming have provoked interest in records of ENSO from past “greenhouse” climate states. The latest Cretaceous laminated Marca Shale of California permits a seasonal-scale reconstruction of water column flux events and hence interannual paleoclimate variability. The annual flux cycle resembles that of the modern Gulf of California with diatoms characteristic of spring upwelling blooms followed by silt and clay, and is consistent with the existence of a paleo–North American Monsoon that brought input of terrigenous sediment during summer storms and precipitation runoff. Variation is also indicated in the extent of water column oxygenation by differences in lamina preservation. Time series analysis of interannual variability in terrigenous sediment and diatom flux and in the degree of bioturbation indicates strong periodicities in the quasi-biennial (2.1–2.8 yr) and low-frequency (4.1–6.3 yr) bands both characteristic of ENSO forcing, as well as decadal frequencies. This evidence for robust Late Cretaceous ENSO variability does not support the theory of a “permanent El Niño,” in the sense of a continual El Niño–like state, in periods of warmer climate.

  14. Remote ENSO forcing versus local air-sea interaction in QTCM: a sensitivity study to intraseasonal variability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Gushchina

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available The skill of a newly designed global atmospheric model of intermediate complexity - QTCM (for quasi-equilibrium tropical circulation model in simulating the teleconnections is investigated. The role of the ENSO remote forcing over the Pacific surrounding regions is emphasized from sensitivity experiments to critical parameters of the model. The role of the tropical intraseasonal variability (ITV on the simulated ENSO teleconnection pattern is estimated using the methodology proposed by Lin et al. (2000 allowing to damp the energy of ITV in the model. The reduction of intraseasonal variability allows emphasizing the forced response of the atmosphere and eases the detection of local coupled atmosphere-ocean patterns. It was shown that the simulated ITV has an impact on the ENSO teleconnection pattern both in the mid-latitudes and in regions of ascending and descending branches of Walker circulation cells in the tropics.

  15. ENSO Atmospheric Teleconnections and Their Response to Greenhouse Gas Forcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yeh, Sang-Wook; Cai, Wenju; Min, Seung-Ki; McPhaden, Michael J.; Dommenget, Dietmar; Dewitte, Boris; Collins, Matthew; Ashok, Karumuri; An, Soon-Il; Yim, Bo-Young; Kug, Jong-Seong

    2018-03-01

    El Niño and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most prominent year-to-year climate fluctuation on Earth, alternating between anomalously warm (El Niño) and cold (La Niña) sea surface temperature (SST) conditions in the tropical Pacific. ENSO exerts its impacts on remote regions of the globe through atmospheric teleconnections, affecting extreme weather events worldwide. However, these teleconnections are inherently nonlinear and sensitive to ENSO SST anomaly patterns and amplitudes. In addition, teleconnections are modulated by variability in the oceanic and atmopsheric mean state outside the tropics and by land and sea ice extent. The character of ENSO as well as the ocean mean state have changed since the 1990s, which might be due to either natural variability or anthropogenic forcing, or their combined influences. This has resulted in changes in ENSO atmospheric teleconnections in terms of precipitation and temperature in various parts of the globe. In addition, changes in ENSO teleconnection patterns have affected their predictability and the statistics of extreme events. However, the short observational record does not allow us to clearly distinguish which changes are robust and which are not. Climate models suggest that ENSO teleconnections will change because the mean atmospheric circulation will change due to anthropogenic forcing in the 21st century, which is independent of whether ENSO properties change or not. However, future ENSO teleconnection changes do not currently show strong intermodel agreement from region to region, highlighting the importance of identifying factors that affect uncertainty in future model projections.

  16. Reduced herbivory during simulated ENSO rainy events increases native herbaceous plants in semiarid Chile

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Manrique, R.; Gutierrez, J.R.; Holmgren, M.; Squeo, F.A.

    2007-01-01

    El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events have profound consequences for the dynamics of terrestrial ecosystems. Since increased climate variability is expected to favour the invasive success of exotic species, we conducted a field experiment to study the effects that simulated rainy ENSO events in

  17. Multi-year assimilation of IASI and MLS ozone retrievals: variability of tropospheric ozone over the tropics in response to ENSO

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peiro, Hélène; Emili, Emanuele; Cariolle, Daniel; Barret, Brice; Le Flochmoën, Eric

    2018-05-01

    The Infrared Atmospheric Sounder Instrument (IASI) allows global coverage with very high spatial resolution and its measurements are promising for long-term ozone monitoring. In this study, Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) O3 profiles and IASI O3 partial columns (1013.25-345 hPa) are assimilated in a chemistry transport model to produce 6-hourly analyses of tropospheric ozone for 6 years (2008-2013). We have compared and evaluated the IASI-MLS analysis and the MLS analysis to assess the added value of IASI measurements. The global chemical transport model MOCAGE (MOdèle de Chimie Atmosphérique à Grande Echelle) has been used with a linear ozone chemistry scheme and meteorological forcing fields from ERA-Interim (ECMWF global reanalysis) with a horizontal resolution of 2° × 2° and 60 vertical levels. The MLS and IASI O3 retrievals have been assimilated with a 4-D variational algorithm to constrain stratospheric and tropospheric ozone respectively. The ozone analyses are validated against ozone soundings and tropospheric column ozone (TCO) from the OMI-MLS residual method. In addition, an Ozone ENSO Index (OEI) is computed from the analysis to validate the TCO variability during the ENSO events. We show that the assimilation of IASI reproduces the variability of tropospheric ozone well during the period under study. The variability deduced from the IASI-MLS analysis and the OMI-MLS measurements are similar for the period of study. The IASI-MLS analysis can reproduce the extreme oscillation of tropospheric ozone caused by ENSO events over the tropical Pacific Ocean, although a correction is required to reduce a constant bias present in the IASI-MLS analysis.

  18. Relationships between the Antarctic oscillation, the Madden-Julian oscillation, and ENSO, and consequences for rainfall analysis

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Pohl, B

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available range, it is not unambiguously related to the global-scale Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) activity, with in particular no coherent phase relationship with the MJO index. Moreover, in the high southern latitudes, the MJO-associated anomaly fields do...

  19. Influences of the ENSO, oscillation Madden-Julian, waves of the east, hurricanes and moon phases on the diurnal cycle of precipitation at the tropical Andes of Colombia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Poveda, German; Mesa, Oscar; Agudelo, Paula; Alvarez, Juan; Arias, Paola; Moreno, Hernan; Salazar, Luis; Toro, Vladimir; Vieira, Sara

    2002-01-01

    We study the effects of large-scale ocean-atmospheric, astronomic phenomena on the diurnal cycle of precipitation at the tropical Andes of Colombia. Such phenomena include both phases of El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), namely El Nino and La Nina, the intra seasonal Madden-Julian oscillation, tropical easterly waves (4-8 days), moon phases and hurricanes over the Atlantic and eastern pacific oceans. We found a clear-cut effect of both ENSO phases: El Nino is associated with a diminished rainfall diurnal cycle, and La Nina intensifies it. Thus, ENSO modulates precipitation in Colombia at timescales ranging from hours to decades. We identified a close association with different phases of the Madden-Julian oscillation, as the diurnal cycle is intensified (larger amplitude) during its westerly phase, but it gets decreased during its easterly phase. For both ENSO and the Madden-Julian oscillation we identified a clear-cut influence on the amplitude of the diurnal cycle, yet the phase is conserved for the most part. Tropical easterly waves appear to affect the diurnal cycle, but no clear overall signal is pervasive throughout the region. We al so found a significant statistical association with hurricanes occurring over the northeastern pacific ocean with the diurnal cycle of precipitation at rain gages located over the eastern slope of the eastern range of the Colombian Andes. Rainfall at all the remaining slopes of the Andes is statistically associated with hurricanes occurring at the tropical north Atlantic and the Caribbean Sea. Moon phases are not statistically associated with the diurnal cycle and daily total rainfall

  20. Internal variability in a 1000-yr control simulation with the coupled climate model ECHO-G - II. El Nino Southern Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Min, Seung-Ki; Hense, Andreas [Univ. of Bonn (Germany). Meteorological Inst.; Legutke, Stephanie [Max Planck Inst. for Meteorology, Hamburg (Germany); Kwon, Won-Tae [Meteorological Research Inst., Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    2005-08-01

    A 1000-yr control simulation (CTL) performed with the atmosphere-ocean global climate model ECHO-G is analysed with regard to the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the two major natural climatic variabilities, in comparison with observations and other model simulations. The ENSO-related sea surface temperature climate and its seasonal cycle in the tropical Pacific and a single Intertropical Convergence Zone in the eastern tropical Pacific are simulated reasonably, and the ENSO phase-locking to the annual cycle and the subsurface ocean behaviour related to equatorial wave dynamics are also reproduced well. The simulated amplitude of the ENSO signal is however too large and its occurrence is too regular and frequent. Also, the observed westward propagation of zonal wind stress over the equatorial Pacific is not captured by the model. Nevertheless, the ENSO-related teleconnection patterns of near-surface temperature (T2m), precipitation (PCP) and mean sea level pressure (MSLP) are reproduced realistically. The NAO index, defined as the MSLP difference between Gibraltar and Iceland, has a 'white' noise spectrum similar to that of the detrended index obtained from observed data. The correlation and regression patterns of T2m, PCP and MSLP with the NAO index are also successfully simulated. However, the model overestimates the warming over the North Pacific in the high index phase of the NAO, a feature it shares with other coupled models. This might be associated with an enhanced Atlantic/Pacific teleconnection, which is hardly seen in the observations. A detection analysis of the NAO index shows that the observed recent 4060 yr trend cannot be explained by the model's internal variability while the recent 2030 yr trend occurs with a more than 1% chance in ECHO-G CTL.

  1. Pengaruh ENSO (El Niño and Southern Oscillation terhadap transpor massa air laut di Selat Malaka

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muhammad

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstrak. Penelitian ini mengkaji pengaruh ENSO (El Niño and Southern Oscillation di Selat Malaka dengan memakai indek osilasi selatan Samudera Pasifik dalam menentukan kondisi Normal, El Niño dan La Nina sebagai analisis transpor massa air laut, elevasi muka laut dan densitas laut. Metode penelitian menggunakan persamaan Navier-Stokes dengan gaya pembangkit pasang surut, angin dari National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP Tahun 1980-2007, Salinitas (Levitus dan Boyer, 1994a dan Temperatur (Levitus dan Boyer, 1994b. Persamaan gerak air laut tersebut dimodelkan dengan model Hamburg Shelf Ocean Model (HAMSOM. Hasil-hasil menunjukkan bahwa transpor di bagian barat laut Selat Malaka pergerakannya melemah dan transpor di bagian tenggara pergerakannya menguat dibandingkan pada kondisi tahun Normal dan La Nina. Sedangkan elevasi muka air di Selat Malaka pada kondisi tahun El Niño lebih rendah dibandingkan pada kondisi Normal dan La Nina. Selanjutnya densitas permukaan laut di Selat Malaka pada kondisi tahun Normal, El Niño dan La Nina berkisar 18,5 s/d 20,5 kg/m3. Densitas laut lapisan 30-50 m di Selat Malaka pada kondisi tahun Normal, El Niño dan La Nina berkisar 19 s/d 21 kg/m3. Densitas permukaan laut dan densitas laut kedalaman 30-50 m di bagian tenggara Selat Malaka pada kondisi El Niño lebih besar dibandingkan pada tahun Normal maupun tahun La Nina.

  2. The influence of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycles on wave-driven sea-floor sediment mobility along the central California continental margin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Storlazzi, Curt D.; Reid, Jane A.

    2010-01-01

    Ocean surface waves are the dominant temporally and spatially variable process influencing sea floor sediment resuspension along most continental shelves. Wave-induced sediment mobility on the continental shelf and upper continental slope off central California for different phases of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events was modeled using monthly statistics derived from more than 14 years of concurrent hourly oceanographic and meteorologic data as boundary input for the Delft SWAN wave model, gridded sea floor grain-size data from the usSEABED database, and regional bathymetry. Differences as small as 0.5 m in wave height, 1 s in wave period, and 10° in wave direction, in conjunction with the spatially heterogeneous unconsolidated sea-floor sedimentary cover, result in significant changes in the predicted mobility of continental shelf surficial sediment in the study area. El Niño events result in more frequent mobilization on the inner shelf in the summer and winter than during La Niña events and on the outer shelf and upper slope in the winter months, while La Niña events result in more frequent mobilization on the mid-shelf during spring and summer months than during El Niño events. The timing and patterns of seabed mobility are addressed in context of geologic and biologic processes. By understanding the spatial and temporal variability in the disturbance of the sea floor, scientists can better interpret sedimentary patterns and ecosystem structure, while providing managers and planners an understanding of natural impacts when considering the permitting of offshore activities that disturb the sea floor such as trawling, dredging, and the emplacement of sea-floor engineering structures.

  3. Are population dynamics of shorebirds affected by El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) while on their non-breeding grounds in Ecuador?

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Hara, Patrick D.; Haase, Ben J. M.; Elner, Robert W.; Smith, Barry D.; Kenyon, Jamie K.

    2007-08-01

    Declines in avian populations are a global concern, particularly for species that migrate between Arctic-temperate and tropical locations. Long-term population studies offer opportunities to detect and document ecological effects attributable to long-term climatic cycles such as the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). In this study, we report possible population-level effects of such climatic cycles on shorebird species that use two non-breeding season sites in Ecuador (Santa Elena peninsula area, near La Libertad). During our 9-year study period (1991/1992-1999/2000), there was a particularly strong ENSO warm phase event during 1997/1998. Population trend data for three species of shorebird, Western Sandpipers ( Calidris mauri), Semipalmated Sandpipers ( C. pusilla), and Least Sandpipers ( C. minutilla), indicated abundances generally declined during the 1990s, but there was an increase in the proportion of first-year birds and their abundance in the years following the 1997/1998 ENSO warm phase. There was some support for variation in apparent survivorship associated with the onset of the ENSO warm phase event in our population models, based on capture-mark-recapture data. Following the 1997/1998 ENSO event onset, individuals for all three species were significantly lighter during the non-breeding season ( F1,3789 = 6.6, p = 0.01). Least-squares mean mass (controlling for size, sex and day of capture) for first-year birds dropped significantly more than for adults following ENSO (first-year mass loss = 0.69 ± 0.12 g; adult mass loss = 0.34 ± 0.11 g, F1,3789 = 5.31, p = 0.021), and least-squares mean mass dropped most during the period when sandpipers prepare for northward migration by gaining mass and moulting into breeding plumage. Least Sandpipers may have declined the most in mean mass following ENSO (0.76 ± 0.19 g), whereas Semipalmated Sandpipers were 0.52 ± 0.12 g lighter, and Western Sandpipers 0.40 ± 0.13 g lighter, but overall variation among

  4. Correlations between El Niño Southern Oscillation and changes in Nearctic-Neotropic migrant condition in Central America

    Science.gov (United States)

    J.D. Wolfe; C.J. Ralph

    2009-01-01

    Climatic changes induced by the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) commonly influence biological systems; however, climatic variability and multitrophic interactions within tropical latitudes remain poorly understood. We examined relationships between migrant condition and ENSO during spring migration in Costa Rica. Our study is based on correlating an ENSO index with...

  5. Hydro-climatic variability over the Andes of Colombia associated with ENSO: a review of climatic processes and their impact on one of the Earth's most important biodiversity hotspots

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poveda, Germán; Álvarez, Diana M.; Rueda, Óscar A.

    2011-06-01

    The hydro-climatic variability of the Colombian Andes associated with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is reviewed using records of rainfall, river discharges, soil moisture, and a vegetation index (NDVI) as a surrogate for evapotranspiration. Anomalies in the components of the surface water balance during both phases of ENSO are quantified in terms of their sign, timing, and magnitude. During El Niño (La Niña), the region experiences negative (positive) anomalies in rainfall, river discharges (average and extremes), soil moisture, and NDVI. ENSO's effects are phase-locked to the seasonal cycle, being stronger during December-February, and weaker during March-May. Besides, rainfall and river discharges anomalies show that the ENSO signal exhibits a westerly wave-like propagation, being stronger (weaker) and earlier (later) over the western (eastern) Andes. Soil moisture anomalies are land-cover type dependant, but overall they are enhanced by ENSO, showing very low values during El Niño (mainly during dry seasons), but saturation values during La Niña. A suite of large-scale and regional mechanisms cooperating at the ocean-atmosphere-land system are reviewed to explaining the identified hydro-climatic anomalies. This review contributes to an understanding of the hydro-climatic framework of a region identified as the most critical hotspot for biodiversity on Earth, and constitutes a wake-up call for scientists and policy-makers alike, to take actions and mobilize resources and minds to prevent the further destruction of the region's valuable hydrologic and biodiversity resources and ecosystems. It also sheds lights towards the implementation of strategies and adaptation plans to coping with threats from global environmental change.

  6. Hydro-climatic variability over the Andes of Colombia associated with ENSO: a review of climatic processes and their impact on one of the Earth's most important biodiversity hotspots

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Poveda, German; Alvarez, Diana M. [Universidad Nacional de Colombia, School of Geosciences and Environment, Medellin (Colombia); Rueda, Oscar A. [Universidad Nacional de Colombia, School of Geosciences and Environment, Medellin (Colombia); Grupo HTM, Medellin (Colombia)

    2011-06-15

    The hydro-climatic variability of the Colombian Andes associated with El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is reviewed using records of rainfall, river discharges, soil moisture, and a vegetation index (NDVI) as a surrogate for evapotranspiration. Anomalies in the components of the surface water balance during both phases of ENSO are quantified in terms of their sign, timing, and magnitude. During El Nino (La Nina), the region experiences negative (positive) anomalies in rainfall, river discharges (average and extremes), soil moisture, and NDVI. ENSO's effects are phase-locked to the seasonal cycle, being stronger during December-February, and weaker during March-May. Besides, rainfall and river discharges anomalies show that the ENSO signal exhibits a westerly wave-like propagation, being stronger (weaker) and earlier (later) over the western (eastern) Andes. Soil moisture anomalies are land-cover type dependant, but overall they are enhanced by ENSO, showing very low values during El Nino (mainly during dry seasons), but saturation values during La Nina. A suite of large-scale and regional mechanisms cooperating at the ocean-atmosphere-land system are reviewed to explaining the identified hydro-climatic anomalies. This review contributes to an understanding of the hydro-climatic framework of a region identified as the most critical hotspot for biodiversity on Earth, and constitutes a wake-up call for scientists and policy-makers alike, to take actions and mobilize resources and minds to prevent the further destruction of the region's valuable hydrologic and biodiversity resources and ecosystems. It also sheds lights towards the implementation of strategies and adaptation plans to coping with threats from global environmental change. (orig.)

  7. Climate Prediction Center: ENSO Diagnostic Discussion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Organization Search Go Search the CPC Go Expert Assessments ENSO Diagnostic Discussion Archive About Us Our Assessments > ENSO Diagnostic Discussion El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Diagnostic Discussion PDF : English Version Spanish Version Adobe PDF Reader (Click icon for Adobe PDF Reader) Word: English Version

  8. Mean Bias in Seasonal Forecast Model and ENSO Prediction Error.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Seon Tae; Jeong, Hye-In; Jin, Fei-Fei

    2017-07-20

    This study uses retrospective forecasts made using an APEC Climate Center seasonal forecast model to investigate the cause of errors in predicting the amplitude of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-driven sea surface temperature variability. When utilizing Bjerknes coupled stability (BJ) index analysis, enhanced errors in ENSO amplitude with forecast lead times are found to be well represented by those in the growth rate estimated by the BJ index. ENSO amplitude forecast errors are most strongly associated with the errors in both the thermocline slope response and surface wind response to forcing over the tropical Pacific, leading to errors in thermocline feedback. This study concludes that upper ocean temperature bias in the equatorial Pacific, which becomes more intense with increasing lead times, is a possible cause of forecast errors in the thermocline feedback and thus in ENSO amplitude.

  9. Interdecadal variations of ENSO around 1999/2000

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Zeng-Zhen; Kumar, Arun; Huang, Bohua; Zhu, Jieshun; Ren, Hong-Li

    2017-02-01

    This paper discusses the interdecadal changes of the climate in the tropical Pacific with a focus on the corresponding changes in the characteristics of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Compared with 1979-1999, the whole tropical Pacific climate system, including both the ocean and atmosphere, shifted to a lower variability regime after 1999/2000. Meanwhile, the frequency of ENSO became less regular and was closer to a white noise process. The lead time of the equatorial Pacific's subsurface ocean heat content in preceding ENSO decreased remarkably, in addition to a reduction in the maximum correlation between them. The weakening of the correlation and the shortening of the lead time pose more challenges for ENSO prediction, and is the likely reason behind the decrease in skill with respect to ENSO prediction after 2000. Coincident with the changes in tropical Pacific climate variability, the mean states of the atmospheric and oceanic components also experienced physically coherent changes. The warm anomaly of SST in the western Pacific and cold anomaly in the eastern Pacific resulted in an increased zonal SST gradient, linked to an enhancement in surface wind stress and strengthening of the Walker circulation, as well as an increase in the slope of the thermocline. These changes were consistent with an increase (a decrease) in precipitation and an enhancement (a suppression) of the deep convection in the western (eastern) equatorial Pacific. Possible connections between the mean state and ENSO variability and frequency changes in the tropical Pacific are also discussed.

  10. ENSO Dynamics and Trends, AN Alternate View

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rojo Hernandez, J. D.; Lall, U.; Mesa, O. J.

    2017-12-01

    El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most important inter-annual climate fluctuation on a planetary level with great effects on the hydrological cycle, agriculture, ecosystems, health and society. This work demonstrates the use of the Non-Homogeneus hidden Markov Models (NHMM) to characterize ENSO using a set of discrete states with variable transition probabilities matrix using the data of sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) of the Kaplan Extended SST v2 between 120E -90W, 15N-15S from Jan-1856 to Dec-2016. ENSO spatial patterns, their temporal distribution, the transition probabilities between patterns and their temporal evolution are the main results of the NHHMM applied to ENSO. The five "hidden" states found appear to represent the different "Flavors" described in the literature: the Canonical El Niño, Central El Niño, a Neutral state, Central La Niña and the Canonical Niña. Using the whole record length of the SSTA it was possible to identify trends in the dynamic system, with a decrease in the probability of occurrence of the cold events and a significant increase of the warm events, in particular of Central El Niño events whose probability of occurrence has increased Dramatically since 1960 coupled with increases in global temperature.

  11. Contribution of tropical instability waves to ENSO irregularity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holmes, Ryan M.; McGregor, Shayne; Santoso, Agus; England, Matthew H.

    2018-05-01

    Tropical instability waves (TIWs) are a major source of internally-generated oceanic variability in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. These non-linear phenomena play an important role in the sea surface temperature (SST) budget in a region critical for low-frequency modes of variability such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). However, the direct contribution of TIW-driven stochastic variability to ENSO has received little attention. Here, we investigate the influence of TIWs on ENSO using a 1/4° ocean model coupled to a simple atmosphere. The use of a simple atmosphere removes complex intrinsic atmospheric variability while allowing the dominant mode of air-sea coupling to be represented as a statistical relationship between SST and wind stress anomalies. Using this hybrid coupled model, we perform a suite of coupled ensemble forecast experiments initiated with wind bursts in the western Pacific, where individual ensemble members differ only due to internal oceanic variability. We find that TIWs can induce a spread in the forecast amplitude of the Niño 3 SST anomaly 6-months after a given sequence of WWBs of approximately ± 45% the size of the ensemble mean anomaly. Further, when various estimates of stochastic atmospheric forcing are added, oceanic internal variability is found to contribute between about 20% and 70% of the ensemble forecast spread, with the remainder attributable to the atmospheric variability. While the oceanic contribution to ENSO stochastic forcing requires further quantification beyond the idealized approach used here, our results nevertheless suggest that TIWs may impact ENSO irregularity and predictability. This has implications for ENSO representation in low-resolution coupled models.

  12. Indian Ocean and Indian summer monsoon: relationships without ENSO in ocean-atmosphere coupled simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crétat, Julien; Terray, Pascal; Masson, Sébastien; Sooraj, K. P.; Roxy, Mathew Koll

    2017-08-01

    The relationship between the Indian Ocean and the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) and their respective influence over the Indo-Western North Pacific (WNP) region are examined in the absence of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in two partially decoupled global experiments. ENSO is removed by nudging the tropical Pacific simulated sea surface temperature (SST) toward SST climatology from either observations or a fully coupled control run. The control reasonably captures the observed relationships between ENSO, ISM and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). Despite weaker amplitude, IODs do exist in the absence of ENSO and are triggered by a boreal spring ocean-atmosphere coupled mode over the South-East Indian Ocean similar to that found in the presence of ENSO. These pure IODs significantly affect the tropical Indian Ocean throughout boreal summer, inducing a significant modulation of both the local Walker and Hadley cells. This meridional circulation is masked in the presence of ENSO. However, these pure IODs do not significantly influence the Indian subcontinent rainfall despite overestimated SST variability in the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean compared to observations. On the other hand, they promote a late summer cross-equatorial quadrupole rainfall pattern linking the tropical Indian Ocean with the WNP, inducing important zonal shifts of the Walker circulation despite the absence of ENSO. Surprisingly, the interannual ISM rainfall variability is barely modified and the Indian Ocean does not force the monsoon circulation when ENSO is removed. On the contrary, the monsoon circulation significantly forces the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal SSTs, while its connection with the western tropical Indian Ocean is clearly driven by ENSO in our numerical framework. Convection and diabatic heating associated with above-normal ISM induce a strong response over the WNP, even in the absence of ENSO, favoring moisture convergence over India.

  13. Variables for probing neutrino oscillation at super- Kamiokande and ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    and Sudbury Neutrino Observatory experiments and can sensitively signal neutrino oscillations. One class of such variables involve moments of the distributions recorded at the two facilities while another variable, specific to SNO, utilises the integrated charged and neutral current signals. The utility of these variables in the ...

  14. ENSO modulation of interannual variability of dust aerosols over the northwest Indian ocean

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Banerjee, P.; PrasannaKumar, S.

    Mineral dust is known to affect many aspects of the climate of the north Indian Ocean (IO) However, what controls its interannual variability over this region is largely unknown The authors study the mechanism controlling the interannual variability...

  15. An exploratory modeling study on bio-physical processes associated with ENSO

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Jong-Yeon; Kug, Jong-Seong; Park, Young-Gyu

    2014-05-01

    Variability of marine phytoplankton associated with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and potential biological feedbacks onto ENSO are investigated by performing coupled ocean/biogeochemical model experiments forced by realistic surface winds from 1951 to 2010. The ocean model used in this study is the MOM4, which is coupled to a biogeochemical model, called TOPAZ (Tracers in the Ocean with Allometric Zooplankton). In general, it is shown that MOM4-TOPAZ mimics the observed main features of phytoplankton variability associated with ENSO. By comparing the actively coupled MOM4-TOPAZ experiment with the ocean model experiments using prescribed chlorophyll concentrations, potential impacts of phytoplankton on ENSO are evaluated. We found that chlorophyll generally increases mean sea surface temperature (SST) and decreases subsurface temperature by altering the penetration of solar radiation. However, as the chlorophyll concentration increases, the equatorial Pacific SST decreases due to the enhanced upwelling of the cooler subsurface water with shoaling of mixed layer and thermocline. The presence of chlorophyll generally intensifies ENSO amplitude by changing the ocean basic state. On the other hand, interactively varying chlorophyll associated with the ENSO tends to reduce ENSO amplitude. Therefore, the two biological effects on SST are competing against each other regarding the SST variance in the equatorial Pacific.

  16. Fossil Coral Records of ENSO during the Last Glacial Period

    Science.gov (United States)

    Partin, J. W.; Taylor, F. W.; Shen, C. C.; Edwards, R. L.; Quinn, T. M.; DiNezro, P.

    2017-12-01

    Only a handful of paleoclimate records exist that can resolve interannual changes, and hence El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability, during the last glacial period, a time of altered mean climate. The few existing data suggest reduced ENSO variability compared to the Holocene, possibly due to a weaker zonal sea surface temperature gradient across the tropical Pacific and/or a deeper thermocline in the eastern tropical Pacific. Our goal is to add crucial data to this extremely limited subset using sub-annually resolved fossil corals that grew during this time period to reconstruct ENSO. We seek to recover fossil corals from Vanuatu, SW Pacific (16°S, 167°E) with the objective of using coral δ18O to reconstruct changes in the ENSO during and near the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Modern δ18O coral records from Vanuatu show a high degree of skill in capturing ENSO variability, making it a suitable site for reconstructing ENSO variability. We have custom designed and are building a drill system that can rapidly core many 0-25 m holes resulting in much more meters of penetration than achieved by previous land-based reef drilling. As the new drill system is extremely portable and can be quickly relocated by workers without landing craft or vehicles, it is time and cost efficient. Because the proposed drilling sites have uplifted extremely fast, 7 mm/year, the LGM shoreline has been raised from 120-140 m depth to within a depth range of 10 below to 20 m above present sea level. This enables all the drilling to be within the time range of interest ( 15-25 ka). A last advantage is that the LGM corals either are still submersed in seawater or emerged only within the last 2000 years at the uplift rate of 7 mm/yr. This greatly reduces the chances of disruption of the original climate signal because sea water is less diagenetically damaging than meteoric water in the mixed, phreatic, or vadose zones. LGM coral records will enable us to compare the proxy variability

  17. The impact of the 2015-2016 El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event on greenhouse gas exchange and surface energy budget in an Indonesian oil palm plantation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stiegler, C.; Meijide, A.; June, T.; Knohl, A.

    2016-12-01

    Oil palm plantations cover a large fraction of tropical lowlands in Southeast Asia. However, despite their growing areal extent, measurements and observations of greenhouse gas exchange and surface energy balance are still scarce. In addition, the effects of extreme events such as El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on carbon sequestration and the partitioning of surface energy balance components are widely unknown. In this study, we use micrometeorological measurements located in commercial oil palm plantations in the Jambi province (Sumatra, Indonesia) to assess the impact of the 2015-2016 ENSO event on greenhouse gas exchange and surface energy budget. Measurements are in operation since July 2013 and we assess continuously turbulent fluxes of carbon dioxide (CO2), water vapour and sensible heat using the eddy covariance technique before, during and after the 2015-2016 ENSO event. The full surface energy budget is completed by measurements of radiative components, ground heat fluxes, and soil thermal and hydrological properties. The study is part of a large interdisciplinary project focussing on the ecological and socioeconomic functions of lowland rainforest transformation systems (EFForTS). During the ENSO event, the area experienced a strong drought with decreasing soil moisture and increasing air and surface temperatures. During the peak in September and October 2015, hundreds of fires in the area resulted in strong smoke production decreasing incoming solar radiation and increasing the diffuse fraction. Compared to regular years, the carbon uptake of the oil palm plantation decreased during the ENSO event. The turbulent heat fluxes experienced an increase in sensible heat fluxes due to drought conditions at the cost of latent heat fluxes resulting in an increase in the Bowen-ratio. Overall, the ENSO event resulted in a major anomaly of exchange processes between the oil palm plantation and the atmosphere.

  18. Interhemispheric temperature difference as a predictor of boreal winter ENSO

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piskozub, Jacek; Gutowska, Dorota

    2013-04-01

    winter ENSO variability. In, fact, we did not expect a high value for a phenomenon which is a self-regulated ocean-atmosphere oscillation with timing partly triggered by stochastic atmospheric forcing, especially as we predict ENSO with (semi)global parameters. It is possible that further research may identify smaller regions of both hemispheres which temperature differences explain a larger part of ENSO variability. However in our opinion, the importance of this result is that it may not only improve ENSO prediction but also help in better understanding of ENSO variability in different time scales.

  19. The impact of the 2015-2016 El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event on greenhouse gas exchange and surface energy budget in an Indonesian oil palm plantation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stiegler, Christian; Meijide, Ana; June, Tania; Knohl, Alexander

    2017-04-01

    The 2015-2016 El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event was one of the strongest observed in the last 20 years. Oil palm plantations cover a large fraction of tropical lowlands in Southeast Asia but despite their growing areal extent, measurements and observations of greenhouse gas exchange and surface energy balance are still scarce. In addition, the effects of extreme events such as ENSO on carbon sequestration and the partitioning of surface energy balance components are widely unknown. In this study, we use micrometeorological measurements located in commercial oil palm plantations in the Jambi province (Sumatra, Indonesia) to assess the impact of the 2015-2016 ENSO event and severe forest fires on greenhouse gas exchange and surface energy budget. Continuous measurements are in operation since July 2013 and we assess turbulent fluxes of carbon dioxide (CO2), water vapour and sensible heat using the eddy covariance technique before, during and after the 2015-2016 ENSO event. In the beginning of the ENSO event, the area experienced a strong drought with decreasing soil moisture, increasing air and surface temperatures, and strong atmospheric vapour pressure deficit. During the peak of the drought from August to October 2015, hundreds of forest fires in the area resulted in strong smoke production, decreasing incoming solar radiation by 35% compared to pre-ENSO values and diffuse radiation became almost the sole shortwave radiation flux. During the beginning of the drought, carbon uptake of the oil palm plantation was around 2.1 gC m-2 d-1 and initially increased by 50% due to clear-sky conditions and high incoming photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) but increasing density of smoke turned the oil palm plantation into a source of carbon. The turbulent heat fluxes experienced an increase in sensible heat fluxes due to drought conditions at the cost of latent heat fluxes resulting in an increase in the midday Bowen-ratio from 0.17 to 0.40. Strong smoke

  20. DMS role in ENSO cycle in the tropics: DMS Role in ENSO Cycle in Tropics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Xu, Li [Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla California USA; Now at Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine California USA; Cameron-Smith, Philip [Atmospheric, Earth and Energy Division, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore California USA; Russell, Lynn M. [Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla California USA; Ghan, Steven J. [Atmospheric Science and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Liu, Ying [Atmospheric Science and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Elliott, Scott [Climate Ocean Sea Ice Modeling, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos New Mexico USA; Yang, Yang [Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla California USA; Atmospheric Science and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Lou, Sijia [Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla California USA; Atmospheric Science and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Lamjiri, Maryam A. [Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla California USA; Manizza, Manfredi [Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla California USA

    2016-11-16

    We examined the multiyear mean and variability of dimethyl sulfide (DMS) and its relationship to sulfate aerosols, as well as cloud microphysical and radiative properties. We conducted a 150 year simulation using preindustrial conditions produced by the Community Earth System Model embedded with a dynamic DMS module. The model simulated the mean spatial distribution of DMS emissions and burden, as well as sulfur budgets associated with DMS, SO2, H2SO4, and sulfate that were generally similar to available observations and inventories for a variety of regions. Changes in simulated sea-to-air DMS emissions and associated atmospheric abundance, along with associated aerosols and cloud and radiative properties, were consistently dominated by El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle in the tropical Pacific region. Simulated DMS, aerosols, and clouds showed a weak positive feedback on sea surface temperature. This feedback suggests a link among DMS, aerosols, clouds, and climate on interannual timescales. The variability of DMS emissions associated with ENSO was primarily caused by a higher variation in wind speed during La Niña events. The simulation results also suggest that variations in DMS emissions increase the frequency of La Niña events but do not alter ENSO variability in terms of the standard deviation of the Niño 3 sea surface temperature anomalies.

  1. Rainfall variability over South-east Asia - connections with Indian monsoon and ENSO extremes: new perspectives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kripalani, R. H.; Kulkarni, Ashwini

    1997-09-01

    Seasonal and annual rainfall data for 135 stations for periods varying from 25 to 125 years are utilized to investigate and understand the interannual and short-term (decadal) climate variability over the South-east Asian domain. Contemporaneous relations during the summer monsoon period (June to September) reveal that the rainfall variations over central India, north China, northern parts of Thailand, central parts of Brunei and Borneo and the Indonesian region east of 120°E vary in phase. However, the rainfall variations over the regions surrounding the South China Sea, in particular the north-west Philippines, vary in the opposite phase. Possible dynamic causes for the spatial correlation structure obtained are discussed.Based on the instrumental data available and on an objective criteria, regional rainfall anomaly time series for contiguous regions over Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore, Brunei, Indonesia and Philippines are prepared. Results reveal that although there are year-to-year random fluctuations, there are certain epochs of the above- and below-normal rainfall over each region. These epochs are not forced by the El Niño/La Nina frequencies. Near the equatorial regions the epochs tend to last for about a decade, whereas over the tropical regions, away from the Equator, epochs last for about three decades. There is no systematic climate change or trend in any of the series. Further, the impact of El Niño (La Nina) on the rainfall regimes is more severe during the below (above) normal epochs than during the above (below) normal epochs. Extreme drought/flood situations tend to occur when the epochal behaviour and the El Niño/La Nina events are phase-locked.

  2. ENSO activity during the last climate cycle using Individual Foraminifera Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leduc, G.; Vidal, L.; Thirumalai, K.

    2017-12-01

    The El Niño / Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the principal mode of interannual climate variability and affects key climate parameters such as low-latitude rainfall variability. Recent climate modeling experiments tend to suggest an increase in the frequency of both El Niño and La Niña events in the future, but these results remain model-dependent and require to be validated by paleodata-model comparisons. Fossil corals indicate that the ENSO variance during the 20th century is particularly high as compared to other time periods of the Holocene. Beyond the Holocene, however, little is known on past ENSO changes, which makes difficult to test paleoclimate model simulations that are used to study the ENSO sensitivity to various types of forcings. We have expanded an Individual Foraminifera Analysis (IFA) dataset using the thermocline-dwelling N. dutertrei on a marine core collected in the Panama Basin (Leduc et al., 2009), that has proven to be a skillful way to reconstruct the ENSO (Thirumalai et al., 2013). Our new IFA dataset comprehensively covers the Holocene, allowing to verify how the IFA method compares with ENSO reconstructions using corals. The dataset then extends back in time to Marine Isotope Stage 6 (MIS), with a special focus the last deglaciation and Termination II (MIS5/6) time windows, as well as key time periods to tests the sensitivity of ENSO to ice volume and orbital parameters. The new dataset confirms variable ENSO activity during the Holocene and weaker activity during LGM than during the Holocene, as a recent isotope-enabled climate model simulations of the LGM suggests (Zhu et al., 2017). Such pattern is reproduced for the Termination II. Leduc, G., L. Vidal, O. Cartapanis, and E. Bard (2009), Modes of eastern equatorial Pacific thermocline variability: Implications for ENSO dynamics over the last glacial period, Paleoceanography, 24, PA3202, doi:10.1029/2008PA001701. Thirumalai, K., J. W. Partin, C. S. Jackson, and T. M. Quinn (2013

  3. A possible explanation for the divergent projection of ENSO amplitude change under global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Lin; Li, Tim; Yu, Yongqiang; Behera, Swadhin K.

    2017-12-01

    The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the greatest climate variability on interannual time scale, yet what controls ENSO amplitude changes under global warming (GW) is uncertain. Here we show that the fundamental factor that controls the divergent projections of ENSO amplitude change within 20 coupled general circulation models that participated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase-5 is the change of climatologic mean Pacific subtropical cell (STC), whose strength determines the meridional structure of ENSO perturbations and thus the anomalous thermocline response to the wind forcing. The change of the thermocline response is a key factor regulating the strength of Bjerknes thermocline and zonal advective feedbacks, which ultimately lead to the divergent changes in ENSO amplitude. Furthermore, by forcing an ocean general circulation mode with the change of zonal mean zonal wind stress estimated by a simple theoretical model, a weakening of the STC in future is obtained. Such a change implies that ENSO variability might strengthen under GW, which could have a profound socio-economic consequence.

  4. Combined effect of MJO, ENSO and IOD on the intraseasonal variability of northeast monsoon rainfall over south peninsular India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sreekala, P. P.; Rao, S. Vijaya Bhaskara; Rajeevan, K.; Arunachalam, M. S.

    2018-02-01

    The present study has examined the combined effect of MJO, ENSO and IOD on the intraseasonal and interannual variability of northeast monsoon rainfall over south peninsular India. The study has revealed that the intraseasonal variation of daily rainfall over south peninsular India during NEM season is associated with various phases of eastward propagating MJO life cycle. Positive rainfall anomaly over south peninsular India and surrounding Indian Ocean (IO) is observed during the strong MJO phases 2, 3 and 4; and negative rainfall anomaly during the strong MJO phases 5,6,7,8 and 1. Above normal (below normal) convection over south peninsular India and suppressed convection over east Indian and West Pacific Ocean, high pressure (low pressure) anomaly over West Pacific Ocean, Positive (negative) SST anomalies over equatorial East and Central Pacific Ocean and easterly wind anomaly (westerly anomaly) over equatorial Indian Ocean are the observed features during the first three MJO (5, 6, 7) phases and all these features are observed in the excess (drought) NEMR composite. This suggests that a similar mode of physical mechanism is responsible for the intraseasonal and interannual variability of northeast monsoon rainfall. The number of days during the first three phases (last four phases) of MJO, where the enhanced convection and positive rainfall anomaly is over Indian Ocean (East Indian ocean and West Pacific Ocean), is more (less) during El Nino and IOD years and less during La Nina and NIOD years and vice versa. The observed excess (deficit) rainfall anomaly over west IO and south peninsular India and deficit (excess) rainfall anomaly over east IO including Bay of Bengal and West Pacific Ocean suggest that the more (less) number of first three phases during El Nino and IOD (La Nina and Negative IOD) is due to the interaction between eastward moving MJO and strong easterlies over equatorial IO present during El Nino and IOD years. This interaction would inhibit the

  5. The influence of El Niño-Southern Oscillation regimes on eastern African vegetation and its future implications under the RCP8.5 warming scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fer, Istem; Tietjen, Britta; Jeltsch, Florian; Wolff, Christian

    2017-09-01

    The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the main driver of the interannual variability in eastern African rainfall, with a significant impact on vegetation and agriculture and dire consequences for food and social security. In this study, we identify and quantify the ENSO contribution to the eastern African rainfall variability to forecast future eastern African vegetation response to rainfall variability related to a predicted intensified ENSO. To differentiate the vegetation variability due to ENSO, we removed the ENSO signal from the climate data using empirical orthogonal teleconnection (EOT) analysis. Then, we simulated the ecosystem carbon and water fluxes under the historical climate without components related to ENSO teleconnections. We found ENSO-driven patterns in vegetation response and confirmed that EOT analysis can successfully produce coupled tropical Pacific sea surface temperature-eastern African rainfall teleconnection from observed datasets. We further simulated eastern African vegetation response under future climate change as it is projected by climate models and under future climate change combined with a predicted increased ENSO intensity. Our EOT analysis highlights that climate simulations are still not good at capturing rainfall variability due to ENSO, and as we show here the future vegetation would be different from what is simulated under these climate model outputs lacking accurate ENSO contribution. We simulated considerable differences in eastern African vegetation growth under the influence of an intensified ENSO regime which will bring further environmental stress to a region with a reduced capacity to adapt effects of global climate change and food security.

  6. Different impacts of mega-ENSO and conventional ENSO on the Indian summer rainfall: developing phase

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Lei; Wu, Zhiwei; Zhou, Yefan

    2016-04-01

    Mega-El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a boarder version of conventional ENSO, is found to be a main driving force of Northern Hemisphere summer monsoon rainfall including the Indian summer rainfall (ISR). The simultaneous impacts of "pure" mega-ENSO and "pure" conventional ENSO events on the ISR in its developing summer remains unclear. This study examines the different linkages between mega-ENSO-ISR and conventional ENSO-ISR. During the developing summer of mega-El Niño, negative rainfall anomalies are seen over the northeastern Indian subcontinent, while the anomalous rainfall pattern is almost the opposite for mega-La Niña; as for the conventional ENSO, the approximate "linear opposite" phenomenon vanishes. Furthermore, the global zonal wave trains anomalous are found at mid-latitude zones, with a local triple circulation pattern over the central-east Eurasia during mega-ENSO events, which might be an explanation of corresponding rainfall response over the Indian Peninsula. Among 106-year historical run (1900-2005) of 9 state-of-the-art models from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), HadGEM2-ES performs a promising skill in simulating the anomalous circulation pattern over mid-latitude and central-east Eurasia while CanESM2 cannot. Probably, it is the models' ability of capturing the mega-ENSO-ISR linkage and the characteristic of mega-ENSO that make the difference.

  7. A 600 k.y. record of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO): Evidence for persisting teleconnections during the Middle Eocene greenhouse climate of Central Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lenz, Olaf K.; Wilde, Volker; Riegel, Walter; Harms, Franz-Juergen

    2010-07-01

    The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a globally important factor in today's climate dynamics. Annually laminated oil shales from the maar lake of Messel (Germany) provide high-resolution sedimentological and paleoenvironmental data of a time interval of ˜600 k.y. during the Eocene greenhouse phase. Individual laminae consist of a light spring and summer algal layer (Tetraedron minimum layer) and a dark winter layer composed of terrigenous background sediment. Four sections were selected from the core of the Messel 2001 well in order to count varves and to measure total varve thickness and the thickess of light and dark laminae. Spectral analyses were done in order to detect possible cyclic fluctuations in varve thickness. Fluctuations are significant in the quasi-biennial (2.1-2.5 yr) and low-frequency band (2.8-3.5 yr, 4.9-5.6 yr), thus showing that algal growth as well as the background sedimentation were controlled by ENSO effects at least over a time interval of 600 k.y. This confirms the existence of a previously postulated robust Eocene ENSO. Significant peaks within a quasi-decadal (10-11 yr), interdecadal (17-26 yr), and multidecadal band (˜52 yr, ˜82 yr) show either the enduring influence of more or less cyclic instabilities or the influence of solar cycles.

  8. A metric for quantifying El Niño pattern diversity with implications for ENSO-mean state interaction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lemmon, Danielle E.; Karnauskas, Kristopher B.

    2018-04-01

    Recent research on the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon increasingly reveals the highly complex and diverse nature of ENSO variability. A method of quantifying ENSO spatial pattern uniqueness and diversity is presented, which enables (1) formally distinguishing between unique and "canonical" El Niño events, (2) testing whether historical model simulations aptly capture ENSO diversity by comparing with instrumental observations, (3) projecting future ENSO diversity using future model simulations, (4) understanding the dynamics that give rise to ENSO diversity, and (5) analyzing the associated diversity of ENSO-related atmospheric teleconnection patterns. Here we develop a framework for measuring El Niño spatial SST pattern uniqueness and diversity for a given set of El Niño events using two indices, the El Niño Pattern Uniqueness (EPU) index and El Niño Pattern Diversity (EPD) index, respectively. By applying this framework to instrumental records, we independently confirm a recent regime shift in El Niño pattern diversity with an increase in unique El Niño event sea surface temperature patterns. However, the same regime shift is not observed in historical CMIP5 model simulations; moreover, a comparison between historical and future CMIP5 model scenarios shows no robust change in future ENSO diversity. Finally, we support recent work that asserts a link between the background cooling of the eastern tropical Pacific and changes in ENSO diversity. This robust link between an eastern Pacific cooling mode and ENSO diversity is observed not only in instrumental reconstructions and reanalysis, but also in historical and future CMIP5 model simulations.

  9. Oscillating shells: A model for a variable cosmic object

    OpenAIRE

    Nunez, Dario

    1997-01-01

    A model for a possible variable cosmic object is presented. The model consists of a massive shell surrounding a compact object. The gravitational and self-gravitational forces tend to collapse the shell, but the internal tangential stresses oppose the collapse. The combined action of the two types of forces is studied and several cases are presented. In particular, we investigate the spherically symmetric case in which the shell oscillates radially around a central compact object.

  10. Interannual variability of summertime aerosol optical depth over East Asia during 2000–2011: a potential influence from El Niño Southern Oscillation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu, Yikun; Liu, Junfeng; Tao, Shu

    2013-01-01

    Aerosols degrade air quality, perturb atmospheric radiation, and impact regional and global climate. Due to the rapid increase in anthropogenic emissions, aerosol loading over East Asia (EA) is markedly higher than other industrialized regions, which motivates a need to characterize the evolution of aerosols and understand the associated drivers. Based on the MISR satellite data during 2000–2011, a wave-like interannual variation of summertime aerosol optical depth (SAOD) is observed over the highly populated North China Plain (NCP) in East Asia. Specifically, the peak-to-trough ratio of SAOD ranges from 1.4 to 1.6, with a period of 3–4 years. This variation pattern differs apparently from what has been seen in EA emissions, indicating a periodic change in regional climate pattern during the past decade. Investigations of meteorological fields over the region reveal that the high SAOD is generally associated with the enhanced Philippine Sea Anticyclone Anomaly (PSAA) which weakens southeasterlies over northeastern EA and depresses air ventilation. Alternatively, higher temperature and lower relative humidity are found to be coincident with reduced SAOD. The behavior of PSAA has been found previously to be modulated by the El Niño Southern Oscillations (ENSO), therefore ENSO could disturb the EA SAOD as well. Rather than changing coherently with the ENSO activity, the SAOD peaks over NCP are found to be accompanied by the rapid transition of El Niño warm to cold phases developed four months ahead. An index measuring the development of ENSO during January–April is able to capture the interannual variability of SAOD over NCP during 2000–2011. This finding indicates a need to integrate the large-scale periodic climate variability in the design of regional air quality policy. (letter)

  11. The interdecadal changes of south pacific sea surface temperature in the mid-1990s and their connections with ENSO

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Gang; Li, Chongyin; Tan, Yanke; Bai, Tao

    2014-01-01

    The characteristic changes of South Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) for the period January 1979 to December 2011, during which the 1990s Pacific pan-decadal variability (PDV) interdecadal regime shifts occurred, were examined. Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis was applied to the monthly mean SSTA for two sub-periods: January 1979 to December 1994 (P1) and January 1996 to December 2011 (P2). Both the spatial and temporal features of the leading EOF mode for P1 and P2 showed a remarkable difference. The spatial structure of the leading EOF changed from a tripolar pattern for P1 (EOF-P1) to a dipole-like pattern for P2 (EOF-P2). Besides, EOF-P1 (EOF-P2) had significant spectral peaks at 4.6 yr (2.7 yr). EOF-P2 not only had a closer association with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), but also showed a faster response to ENSO than EOF-P1 based on their lead-lag relationships with ENSO. During the development of ENSO, the South Pacific SSTA associated with ENSO for both P1 and P2 showed a significant eastward propagation. However, after the peak of ENSO, EOF-P1 showed a stronger persistence than EOF-P2, which still showed eastward propagation. The variability of the SSTA associated with the whole process of ENSO evolution during P1 and the SSTA associated with the development of ENSO during P2 support the existence of ocean-to-atmosphere forcing, but the SSTA associated with the decay of ENSO shows the phenomenon of atmosphere-to-ocean forcing.

  12. On the role of ozone feedback in the ENSO amplitude response under global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nowack, P. J.; Braesicke, P.; Abraham, N. L.; Pyle, J. A.

    2017-12-01

    The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the tropical Pacific is of key importance to global climate and weather. However, climate models still disagree on the ENSO's response under climate change. Here we show that typical model representations of ozone can have a first-order impact on ENSO amplitude projections in climate sensitivity simulations (i.e. standard abrupt 4xCO2). We mainly explain this effect by the lapse rate adjustment of the tropical troposphere to ozone changes in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) under 4xCO2. The ozone-induced lapse rate changes modify the Walker circulation response to the CO2 forcing and consequently tropical Pacific surface temperature gradients. Therefore, not including ozone feedbacks increases the number of extreme ENSO events in our model. In addition, we demonstrate that even if ozone changes in the tropical UTLS are included in the simulations, the neglect of the ozone response in the middle-upper stratosphere still leads to significantly larger ENSO amplitudes (compared to simulations run with a fully interactive atmospheric chemistry scheme). Climate modeling studies of the ENSO often neglect changes in ozone. Our results imply that this could affect the inter-model spread found in ENSO projections and, more generally, surface climate change simulations. We discuss the additional complexity in quantifying such ozone-related effects that arises from the apparent model dependency of chemistry-climate feedbacks and, possibly, their range of surface climate impacts. In conclusion, we highlight the need to understand better the coupling between ozone, the tropospheric circulation, and climate variability. Reference: Nowack PJ, Braesicke P, Abraham NL, and Pyle JA (2017), On the role of ozone feedback in the ENSO amplitude response under global warming, Geophys. Res. Lett. 44, 3858-3866, doi:10.1002/2016GL072418.

  13. Global land carbon sink response to temperature and precipitation varies with ENSO phase

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fang, Yuanyuan; Michalak, Anna M.; Schwalm, Christopher R.; Huntzinger, Deborah N.; Berry, Joseph A.; Ciais, Philippe; Piao, Shilong; Poulter, Benjamin; Fisher, Joshua B.; Cook, Robert B.; Hayes, Daniel; Huang, Maoyi; Ito, Akihiko; Jain, Atul; Lei, Huimin; Lu, Chaoqun; Mao, Jiafu; Parazoo, Nicholas C.; Peng, Shushi; Ricciuto, Daniel M.; Shi, Xiaoying; Tao, Bo; Tian, Hanqin; Wang, Weile; Wei, Yaxing; Yang, Jia

    2017-05-01

    Climate variability associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and its consequent impacts on land carbon sink interannual variability have been used as a basis for investigating carbon cycle responses to climate variability more broadly, and to inform the sensitivity of the tropical carbon budget to climate change. Past studies have presented opposing views about whether temperature or precipitation is the primary factor driving the response of the land carbon sink to ENSO. Here, we show that the dominant driver varies with ENSO phase. Whereas tropical temperature explains sink dynamics following El Niño conditions (rTG,P=0.59, p<0.01), the post La Niña sink is driven largely by tropical precipitation (rPG,T=-0.46, p=0.04). This finding points to an ENSO-phase-dependent interplay between water availability and temperature in controlling the carbon uptake response to climate variations in tropical ecosystems. We further find that none of a suite of ten contemporary terrestrial biosphere models captures these ENSO-phase-dependent responses, highlighting a key uncertainty in modeling climate impacts on the future of the global land carbon sink.

  14. A Review of ENSO Influence on the North Atlantic. A Non-Stationary Signal

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Belén Rodríguez-Fonseca

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The atmospheric seasonal cycle of the North Atlantic region is dominated by meridional movements of the circulation systems: from the tropics, where the West African Monsoon and extreme tropical weather events take place, to the extratropics, where the circulation is dominated by seasonal changes in the jetstream and extratropical cyclones. Climate variability over the North Atlantic is controlled by various mechanisms. Atmospheric internal variability plays a crucial role in the mid-latitudes. However, El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO is still the main source of predictability in this region situated far away from the Pacific. Although the ENSO influence over tropical and extra-tropical areas is related to different physical mechanisms, in both regions this teleconnection seems to be non-stationary in time and modulated by multidecadal changes of the mean flow. Nowadays, long observational records (greater than 100 years and modeling projects (e.g., CMIP permit detecting non-stationarities in the influence of ENSO over the Atlantic basin, and further analyzing its potential mechanisms. The present article reviews the ENSO influence over the Atlantic region, paying special attention to the stability of this teleconnection over time and the possible modulators. Evidence is given that the ENSO–Atlantic teleconnection is weak over the North Atlantic. In this regard, the multidecadal ocean variability seems to modulate the presence of teleconnections, which can lead to important impacts of ENSO and to open windows of opportunity for seasonal predictability.

  15. ENSO impacts on flood risk at the global scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ward, Philip; Dettinger, Michael; Jongman, Brenden; Kummu, Matti; Winsemius, Hessel

    2014-05-01

    We present the impacts of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on society and the economy, via relationships between ENSO and the hydrological cycle. We also discuss ways in which this knowledge can be used in disaster risk management and risk reduction. This contribution provides the most recent results of an ongoing 4-year collaborative research initiative to assess and map the impacts of large scale interannual climate variability on flood hazard and risk at the global scale. We have examined anomalies in flood risk between ENSO phases, whereby flood risk is expressed in terms of indicators such as: annual expected damage; annual expected affected population; annual expected affected Gross Domestic Product (GDP). We show that large anomalies in flood risk occur during El Niño or La Niña years in basins covering large parts of the Earth's surface. These anomalies reach statistical significance river basins covering almost two-thirds of the Earth's surface. Particularly strong anomalies exist in southern Africa, parts of western Africa, Australia, parts of Central Eurasia (especially for El Niño), the western USA (especially La Niña anomalies), and parts of South America. We relate these anomalies to possible causal relationships between ENSO and flood hazard, using both modelled and observed data on flood occurrence and extremity. The implications for flood risk management are many-fold. In those regions where disaster risk is strongly influenced by ENSO, the potential predictably of ENSO could be used to develop probabilistic flood risk projections with lead times up to several seasons. Such data could be used by the insurance industry in managing risk portfolios and by multinational companies for assessing the robustness of their supply chains to potential flood-related interruptions. Seasonal forecasts of ENSO influence of peak flows could also allow for improved flood early warning and regulation by dam operators, which could also reduce overall risks

  16. Uncertainty in the ocean-atmosphere feedbacks associated with ENSO in the reanalysis products

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kumar, Arun; Hu, Zeng-Zhen [NCEP/NWS/NOAA, Climate Prediction Center, Camp Springs, MD (United States)

    2012-08-15

    The evolution of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability can be characterized by various ocean-atmosphere feedbacks, for example, the influence of ENSO related sea surface temperature (SST) variability on the low-level wind and surface heat fluxes in the equatorial tropical Pacific, which in turn affects the evolution of the SST. An analysis of these feedbacks requires physically consistent observational data sets. Availability of various reanalysis data sets produced during the last 15 years provides such an opportunity. A consolidated estimate of ocean surface fluxes based on multiple reanalyses also helps understand biases in ENSO predictions and simulations from climate models. In this paper, the intensity and the spatial structure of ocean-atmosphere feedback terms (precipitation, surface wind stress, and ocean surface heat flux) associated with ENSO are evaluated for six different reanalysis products. The analysis provides an estimate for the feedback terms that could be used for model validation studies. The analysis includes the robustness of the estimate across different reanalyses. Results show that one of the ''coupled'' reanalysis among the six investigated is closer to the ensemble mean of the results, suggesting that the coupled data assimilation may have the potential to better capture the overall atmosphere-ocean feedback processes associated with ENSO than the uncoupled ones. (orig.)

  17. Trans-Pacific ENSO teleconnections pose a correlated risk to global agriculture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, W. B.; Seager, R.; Cane, M. A.; Baethgen, W.

    2017-12-01

    The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a major source of interannual climate variability, particularly in the Pacific Basin. ENSO life-cycles tend to evolve over multiple years, as do the associated trans-Pacific ENSO teleconnections. This analysis, however, represents the first attempt to characterize the structure of the risk posed by ENSO to wheat, maize and soybean production across the Pacific Basin. Our results indicate that most ENSO teleconnections relevant for crop flowering seasons are the result of a single trans-Pacific circulation anomaly that develops in boreal summer and persists through the spring. During the late summer and early fall of a developing ENSO event, the tropical Pacific forces an atmospheric anomaly in the midlatitudes that spans the Pacific Basin. This teleconnection directly links the soybean and maize growing seasons of the US, Mexico and China. It also connects the wheat growing seasons of Argentina, southern Brazil and Australia. The ENSO event peaks in boreal winter, when the atmospheric circulation anomalies intensify and affect maize and soybeans in southeast South America. As the event decays, the ENSO-induced circulation anomalies persist through the wheat flowering seasons in China and the US. While the prospect of ENSO forcing simultaneous droughts in major food producing regions seems disastrous, there may be a silver lining from the perspective of global food security: trans-Pacific ENSO teleconnections to yields are often offsetting between major producing regions in the eastern and western portions of the Pacific Basin. El Niños tend to create good maize and soybean growing conditions in the US and southeast South America, but poor growing conditions in China, Mexico and northeast Brazil. The opposite is true during La Niña. Wheat growing conditions in southeast South America generally have the opposite sign of those in Australia. Finally, we investigate how trade networks interact with this structure of ENSO

  18. The Southern Oscillation and northern hemisphere temperature variability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ropelewski, C.F.; Halpert, M.S.

    1990-01-01

    The Southern Oscillation (SO) is the best defined and understood mode of interannual climate variability. The extreme phases of the SO have been identified with global-scale variations in the atmosphere/ocean circulation system and with the modulation of monsoon precipitation on the global scale. While SO-related precipitation has been the subject of several studies, the magnitude of the SO-related temperature variability on the global scale has not been well documented. In this paper the authors provide an estimate of the SO-related temperature variability in the context of monitoring global warming related to the increase in greenhouse gases. This analysis suggested that traditional time series of hemispheric and global temperature anomalies for the calendar year may confuse interannual temperature variability associated with the SO and perceived climate trend. Analyses based on calendar-year data are likely to split the effects of the SO-related temperature variability over two years. The Northern Hemisphere cold season (october through March) time series may be more appropriate to separate the SO-related effects on the hemispheric temperature from other modes of variability. mean interannual temperature anomaly differences associated with the extremes of the So are estimated to be 0.2 C for the October-to-March season in the Northern Hemisphere. In areas directly linked to the SO, the mean interannual differences amount to over 0.5 C. The So cannot account for all the variability in the hemispheric times series of surface temperature estimates, but the SO signal must be properly accounted for if these time series are to be understood

  19. Coastal upwelling along the southwest coast of India – ENSO modulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Muni Krishna

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available An index of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO in the Pacific during pre monsoon season is shown to account for a significant part of the variability of coastal Sea Surface Temperature (SST anomalies measured a few months later within the wind driven southwest coast of India coastal upwelling region 7° N–14° N. This teleconnection is thought to result from an atmospheric bridge between the Pacific and north Indian Oceans, leading to warm (cold ENSO events being associated with relaxation (intensification of the Indian trade winds and of the wind-induced coastal upwelling. This ENSO related modulation of the wind-driven coastal upwelling appears to contribute to the connection observed at the basin-scale between ENSO and SST in the Arabian Sea. The ability to use this teleconnection to give warning of large changes in the southwest coast of India coastal upwelling few months in advance is successfully tested using data from 1998 and 1999 ENSO events.

  20. On the role of ozone feedback in the ENSO amplitude response under global warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nowack, Peer J; Braesicke, Peter; Luke Abraham, N; Pyle, John A

    2017-04-28

    The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the tropical Pacific Ocean is of key importance to global climate and weather. However, state-of-the-art climate models still disagree on the ENSO's response under climate change. The potential role of atmospheric ozone changes in this context has not been explored before. Here we show that differences between typical model representations of ozone can have a first-order impact on ENSO amplitude projections in climate sensitivity simulations. The vertical temperature gradient of the tropical middle-to-upper troposphere adjusts to ozone changes in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere, modifying the Walker circulation and consequently tropical Pacific surface temperature gradients. We show that neglecting ozone changes thus results in a significant increase in the number of extreme ENSO events in our model. Climate modeling studies of the ENSO often neglect changes in ozone. We therefore highlight the need to understand better the coupling between ozone, the tropospheric circulation, and climate variability.

  1. Dynamics of heterogeneous oscillator ensembles in terms of collective variables

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pikovsky, Arkady; Rosenblum, Michael

    2011-04-01

    We consider general heterogeneous ensembles of phase oscillators, sine coupled to arbitrary external fields. Starting with the infinitely large ensembles, we extend the Watanabe-Strogatz theory, valid for identical oscillators, to cover the case of an arbitrary parameter distribution. The obtained equations yield the description of the ensemble dynamics in terms of collective variables and constants of motion. As a particular case of the general setup we consider hierarchically organized ensembles, consisting of a finite number of subpopulations, whereas the number of elements in a subpopulation can be both finite or infinite. Next, we link the Watanabe-Strogatz and Ott-Antonsen theories and demonstrate that the latter one corresponds to a particular choice of constants of motion. The approach is applied to the standard Kuramoto-Sakaguchi model, to its extension for the case of nonlinear coupling, and to the description of two interacting subpopulations, exhibiting a chimera state. With these examples we illustrate that, although the asymptotic dynamics can be found within the framework of the Ott-Antonsen theory, the transients depend on the constants of motion. The most dramatic effect is the dependence of the basins of attraction of different synchronous regimes on the initial configuration of phases.

  2. A synthesis of ENSO effects on drylands in Australia, North America and South America

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Holmgren

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Fundamentally, El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO is a climatic and oceanographic phenomenon, but it has profound effects on terrestrial ecosystems. Although the ecological effects of ENSO are becoming increasingly known from a wide range of terrestrial ecosystems (Holmgren et al., 2001, their impacts have been more intensively studied in arid and semiarid systems. In this brief communication, we summarize the main conclusions of a recent symposium on the effects of ENSO in these ecosystems, which was convened as part of the First Alexander von Humboldt International Conference on the El Niño Phenomenon and its Global Impact, in Guayaquil, Ecuador, from 16–20 May 2005. Participants in the symposium shared results and perspectives from research conducted in North and South America and Australia, regions where the ecological effects of ENSO have been studied in depth. Although the reports covered a wide array of organisms and ecological systems (Fig. 1, a recurring theme was the strong increase in rainfall associated with ENSO events in dry ecosystems (during the El Niño phase of the oscillation in the Americas and the La Niña phase in Australia. Because inter-annual variability in precipitation is such a strong determinant of productivity in arid and semiarid ecosystems, increased ENSO rainfall is crucial for plant recruitment, productivity and diversity in these ecosystems. Several long-term studies show that this pulse in primary productivity causes a subsequent increase in herbivores, followed by an increase in carnivores, with consequences for changes in ecosystem structure and functioning that can be quite complex.

  3. Tropical cyclone prediction skills - MJO and ENSO dependence in S2S data sets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, C. Y.; Camargo, S.; Vitart, F.; Sobel, A. H.; Tippett, M.

    2017-12-01

    The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) are two important climate controls on tropical cyclone (TC) activity. The seasonal prediction skill of dynamical models is determined in large part by their accurate representations of the ENSO-TC relationship. Regarding intraseasonal TC variability, observations suggest MJO to be the primary control. Given the ongoing effort to develop dynamical seasonal-to-subseasonal (S2S) TC predictions, it is important to examine whether the global models, running on S2S timescales, are able to reproduce these known ENSO-TC and MJO-TC relationships, and how this ability affects forecasting skill. Results from the S2S project (from F. Vitart) suggest that global models have skill in predicting MJO phase with up to two weeks of lead time (four weeks for ECMWF). Meanwhile, our results show that, qualitatively speaking, the MJO-TC relationship in storm genesis is reasonably captured, with some models (e.g., ECMWF, BoM, NCEP, MetFr) performing better than the others. However, we also find that model skill in predicting basin-wide genesis and accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) are mainly due to the models' ability to capture the climatological seasonality. Removing the seasonality significantly reduces the models' skill; even the best model (ECMWF) in the most reliable basin (western north Pacific and Atlantic) has very little skill (close to 0.1 in Brier skill score for genesis and close to 0 in rank probability skill score for ACE). This brings up the question: do any factors contribute to intraseasonal TC prediction skill other than seasonality? Is the low skill, after removing the seasonality, due to poor MJO and ENSO simulations, or to poor representation of other ENSO-TC or MJO-TC relationships, such as ENSO's impact on the storm tracks? We will quantitatively discuss the dependence of the TC prediction skill on ENSO and MJO, focusing on Western North Pacific and Atlantic, where we have sufficient

  4. Evaluation of the effects of ENSO teleconnection on climatic parameters fluctuations in Khorasan Province I.R. of Iran

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ehteramian, Kourosh; Shahabfar, Alireza; Gharaei, Sohrab M.; Jamali, Javad B.

    2004-01-01

    The long term forecasting and monitoring of climatological parameters depends on identification of all effective factors, which are affects on this phenomena. One of these parameters is the weather signal. These signals are determinable and specific pattern and occurs in the distinguished regions in the world, but it's effects are world wide. One of the famous signals is ENSO phenomenon, which have two phases. In this paper with using annual and seasonal correlations between southern oscillation index (SOI) and precipitation and temperature data the effective amounts of ENSO phases on the differences of these factors was studied in the all regions of Khorasan province in Iran, then for more comprehensive study the classification maps in relation of ENSO and variability of precipitation and temperature were drown. It was concluded that the mentioned parameters in the whole of the province especially in central and north strip have shown significant action to ENSO, in other word the average of precipitation and temperature correlation indices are negative annually and seasonally, it means when SOI amounts are increased the precipitation and temperature in Khorasan will be decreased. With regard to increasing the above weather parameters in all regions of Khorasan at the time of ENSO negative phases (El Nino condition) variations of precipitation and temperature could be related to the changes of the pattern of occurrence this phenomenon (ENSO) due to climatic change around the world. (Author)

  5. La pluviométrie au Pérou pendant les phases ENSO et LNSO

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    1998-01-01

    separate areas of Peru (the coast, the Andes and the Amazonian Plain are analyzed during the ENSO and LNSO phases of the Pacific Southern Oscillation. Only at Piura, in the Northern coastal region of Peru, are high rainfall amounts significant during the ENSO phase (using the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test but the rainfall amounts are very different from one event to another. In other areas, the differences between the ENSO (and the LNSO phases and the normal periods are not significant. Nevertheless, rainfall is often lower in the Andes during the ENSO. It is equally lower during the LNSO period in the Southern Andes but more often higher in the north. On the Amazonian Plain, the spatio-temporal variability is too important to allow us to identify a general pattern.

  6. ENSO's non-stationary and non-Gaussian character: the role of climate shifts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boucharel, J.; Dewitte, B.; Garel, B.; Du Penhoat, Y.

    2009-07-01

    El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant mode of climate variability in the Pacific, having socio-economic impacts on surrounding regions. ENSO exhibits significant modulation on decadal to inter-decadal time scales which is related to changes in its characteristics (onset, amplitude, frequency, propagation, and predictability). Some of these characteristics tend to be overlooked in ENSO studies, such as its asymmetry (the number and amplitude of warm and cold events are not equal) and the deviation of its statistics from those of the Gaussian distribution. These properties could be related to the ability of the current generation of coupled models to predict ENSO and its modulation. Here, ENSO's non-Gaussian nature and asymmetry are diagnosed from in situ data and a variety of models (from intermediate complexity models to full-physics coupled general circulation models (CGCMs)) using robust statistical tools initially designed for financial mathematics studies. In particular α-stable laws are used as theoretical background material to measure (and quantify) the non-Gaussian character of ENSO time series and to estimate the skill of ``naïve'' statistical models in producing deviation from Gaussian laws and asymmetry. The former are based on non-stationary processes dominated by abrupt changes in mean state and empirical variance. It is shown that the α-stable character of ENSO may result from the presence of climate shifts in the time series. Also, cool (warm) periods are associated with ENSO statistics having a stronger (weaker) tendency towards Gaussianity and lower (greater) asymmetry. This supports the hypothesis of ENSO being rectified by changes in mean state through nonlinear processes. The relationship between changes in mean state and nonlinearity (skewness) is further investigated both in the Zebiak and Cane (1987)'s model and the models of the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC). Whereas there is a clear relationship in all

  7. Climate variability and El Niño Southern Oscillation: implications for natural coastal resources and management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thatje, Sven; Heilmayer, Olaf; Laudien, Jürgen

    2008-03-01

    The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) significantly influences marine ecosystems and the sustained exploitation of marine resources in the coastal zone of the Humboldt Current upwelling system. Both its warm (El Niño: EN) and cold (La Niña: LN) phase have drastic implications for the ecology, socio-economy and infrastructure along most of Pacific South America. Local artisanal fisheries, which especially suffer from the effects of EN, represent a major part for the domestic economy of Chile and Peru and in consequence a huge amount of published and unpublished studies exists aiming at identifying effects of EN and LN. However, most processes and underlying mechanisms fostering the ecology of organisms along Pacific South America have not been analyzed yet and for the marine realm most knowledge is traditionally based on rather descriptive approaches. We herein advocate that small-scale comparative and interdisciplinary process studies work as one possible solution to understand better the variability observed in EN/LN effects at local scale. We propose that differences in small-scale impacts of ENSO along the coast rather than the macro-ecological and oceanographic view are essential for the sustainable management of costal ecosystems and the livelihood of the people depending on it. Based on this, we summarize the conceptual approach from the EU-funded International Science and Technology Cooperation (INCO) project “Climate variability and El Niño Southern Oscillation: Implications for Natural Coastal Resources and Management (CENSOR)” that aims at enhancing the detection, compilation, and understanding of EN and LN effects on the coastal zone and its natural resources. We promote a multidisciplinary avenue within present international funding schemes, with the intention to bridge the traditional gap between basic and applied coastal research. The long-term aim is an increased mitigation of harm caused by EN as well as a better use of beneficial effects

  8. Homotopic mapping solution of an oscillator for the El Niño/La Niña-southern oscillation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xian-Chun, Zhou; Yi-Hua, Lin; Wan-Tao, Lin; Jia-Qi, Mo

    2009-01-01

    This paper considers a class of oscillator for the El Niño/La Niña-southern oscillation (ENSO) model. By using the homotopic mapping method, it obtains approximations of the solution for the ENSO model. (general)

  9. Digitally controlled oscillator design with a variable capacitance XOR gate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kumar, Manoj; Arya, Sandeep K.; Pandey, Sujata

    2011-01-01

    A digitally controlled oscillator (DCO) using a three-transistor XOR gate as the variable load has been presented. A delay cell using an inverter and a three-transistor XOR gate as the variable capacitance is also proposed. Three-, five- and seven-stage DCO circuits have been designed using the proposed delay cell. The output frequency is controlled digitally with bits applied to the delay cells. The three-bit DCO shows output frequency and power consumption variation in the range of 3.2486–4.0267 GHz and 0.6121–0.3901 mW, respectively, with a change in the control word 111–000. The five-bit DCO achieves frequency and power of 1.8553–2.3506 GHz and 1.0202–0.6501 mW, respectively, with a change in the control word 11111–00000. Moreover, the seven-bit DCO shows a frequency and power consumption variation of 1.3239–1.6817 GHz and 1.4282–0.9102 mW, respectively, with a varying control word 1111111–0000000. The power consumption and output frequency of the proposed circuits have been compared with earlier reported circuits and the present approaches show significant improvements. (semiconductor integrated circuits)

  10. Interannual sea level variability in the Pearl River Estuary and its response to El Niño-Southern Oscillation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Linlin; Li, Qiang; Mao, Xian-zhong; Bi, Hongsheng; Yin, Peng

    2018-03-01

    The South China coast, especially the Pearl River Estuary (PRE) region, is prosperous and densely populated, but vulnerable to sea level changes. Sea level anomalies (SLA) during 1954-2012 from tide gauge station data and regional SLAs during 1993-2012 from satellite altimetry are analyzed and compare to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Results show that sea level declines during El Niño events and rises during La Niña. Sea level in the PRE responds to ENSO with 3-month lag. The ENSO can cause sea level in the PRE to fluctuate from -8.70 to 8.11 cm. Sea level cycles of 3 and 5 years are related to ENSO. The ENSO mechanism affecting sea level in the PRE was analyzed by identifying dominant regional and local forces. Weak/strong SLAs in most El Niño/La Niña events may be attributed to less/more seawater transport driven by anomalously weak/strong north winds and local anomalously high/low sea level pressure. Wind-driven coastal current is the predominant factor. It generated coastal seawater volume transport along a 160 km wide cross section to decrease by 21.07% in a typical El Niño period (January 2010) and increase by 44.03% in a typical La Niña period (January 2011) as compared to an ENSO neutral situation (January 2013). Results of sea level rise and its potential mechanism provide insight for disaster protection during extreme El Niño/La Niña events.

  11. An Ensemble Approach to Understanding the ENSO Response to Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stevenson, S.; Capotondi, A.; Fasullo, J.; Otto-Bliesner, B. L.

    2017-12-01

    The dynamics of the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are known to be sensitive to changes in background climate conditions, as well as atmosphere/ocean feedbacks. However, the degree to which shifts in ENSO characteristics can be robustly attributed to external climate forcings remains unknown. Efforts to assess these changes in a multi-model framework are subject to uncertainties due to both differing model physics and internal ENSO variability. New community ensembles created at the National Center for Atmospheric Research and the NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory are ideally suited to addressing this problem, providing many realizations of the climate of the 850-2100 period with a combination of both natural and anthropogenic climate forcing factors. Here we analyze the impacts of external forcing on El Nino and La Nina evolution using four sets of simulations: the CESM Last Millennium Ensemble (CESM-LME), which covers the 850-2005 period and provides long-term context for forced responses; the Large Ensemble (CESM-LE), which includes 20th century and 21st century (RCP8.5) projections; the Medium Ensemble (CESM-ME), which is composed of 21st century RCP4.5 projections; and a large ensemble with the GFDL ESM2M, which includes 20th century and RCP8.5 projections. In the CESM, ENSO variance increases slightly over the 20th century in all ensembles, with the effects becoming much larger during the 21st. The slower increase in variance over the 20th century is shown to arise from compensating influences from greenhouse gas (GHG) and anthropogenic aerosol emissions, which give way to GHG-dominated effects by 2100. However, the 21st century variance increase is not robust: CESM and the ESM2M differ drastically in their ENSO projections. The mechanisms for these inter-model differences are discussed, as are the implications for the design of future multi-model ENSO projection experiments.

  12. Impacto de los eventos de El Niño Southern oscillation (ENSO sobre la leishmaniosis cutánea en Sucre, Venezuela, a través del uso de información satelital, 1994 - 2003

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gilberto Cabaniel S

    2005-03-01

    Full Text Available Objetivos: Describir los posibles impactos de El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO sobre la leishmaniosis cutánea (LC en Sucre, Venezuela en el período 1994-2003. Materiales y Métodos: La data climática se obtuvo de sistemas remotos y fue clasificada de acuerdo con la National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA en periodos El Niño, Neutral o La Niña, usando el Southern Oscillation Index (SOI como indicador de variabilidad. Los datos de LC fueron obtenidos de la Gerencia de Saneamiento Ambiental en Sucre. Se realizaron comparaciones de las variaciones anuales y desviaciones de las tendencias medias, entre la incidencia de LC y variabilidad climática, así como modelos de regresión. Resultados: Se registraron entre 1994 -2003 en Sucre 2212 casos de LC. Se observaron tres fases importantes de El Niño: 1994-1995, 1997-1998 y 2001-2003, la más relevante correspondió a 1997-1998, que fue seguido de un periodo frío y lluvioso en 1999 (La Niña. Durante 1999/2000, se registraron 360 casos de LC en Sucre, con importante variabilidad intraanual, se observó un incremento en 66,7% de los casos de LC (F=10,06, p=0,0051 asociado a la presencia de La Niña débil (poco frío y lluvioso. Los modelos mostraron que a mayores valores del SOI menor incidencia de LC (r 2 =0,3308, p=0,0504. El incremento sobre la tendencia media de las precipitaciones se asoció con incrementos sobre las tendencias de la LC durante 1994-2003 (p=0,0358. Conclusiones: Estos datos reflejan la importancia del ENSO sobre la incidencia de la LC, abriendo una nueva línea de investigación con posible impacto en la predicción y monitoreo con relevancia en salud pública.

  13. The complex influence of ENSO on droughts in Ecuador

    KAUST Repository

    Vicente-Serrano, S. M.

    2016-03-26

    In this study, we analyzed the influence of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the spatio-temporal variability of droughts in Ecuador for a 48-year period (1965–2012). Droughts were quantified from 22 high-quality and homogenized time series of precipitation and air temperature by means of the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index. In addition, the propagation of two different ENSO indices (El Niño 3.4 and El Niño 1 + 2 indices) and other atmospheric circulation processes (e.g., vertical velocity) on different time-scales of drought severity were investigated. The results showed a very complex influence of ENSO on drought behavior across Ecuador, with two regional patterns in the evolution of droughts: (1) the Andean chain with no changes in drought severity, and (2) the Western plains with less severe and frequent droughts. We also detected that drought variability in the Andes mountains is explained by the El Niño 3.4 index [sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the central Pacific], whereas the Western plains are much more driven by El Niño 1 + 2 index (SST anomalies in the eastern Pacific). Moreover, it was also observed that El Niño and La Niña phases enhance droughts in the Andes and Western plains regions, respectively. The results of this work could be crucial for predicting and monitoring drought variability and intensity in Ecuador. © 2016 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg

  14. Comparison of Forced ENSO-Like Hydrological Expressions in Simulations of the Preindustrial and Mid-Holocene

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lewis, Sophie C.; LeGrande, Allegra N.; Schmidt, Gavin A.; Kelley, Maxwell

    2014-01-01

    Using the water isotope- and vapor source distribution (VSD) tracer-enabled Goddard Institute for Space Studies ModelE-R, we examine changing El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-like expressions in the hydrological cycle in a suite of model experiments. We apply strong surface temperature anomalies associated with composite observed El Nino and La Nina events as surface boundary conditions to preindustrial and mid-Holocene model experiments in order to investigate ENSO-like expressions in the hydrological cycle under varying boundary conditions. We find distinct simulated hydrological anomalies associated with El Nino-like ("ENSOWARM") and La Nina-like ("ENSOCOOL") conditions, and the region-specific VSD tracers show hydrological differences across the Pacific basin between El Nino-like and La Nina-like events. The application of ENSOCOOL forcings does not produce climatological anomalies that represent the equal but opposite impacts of the ENSOWARM experiment, as the isotopic anomalies associated with ENSOWARM conditions are generally stronger than with ENSOCOOL and the spatial patterns of change distinct. Also, when the same ENSO-like surface temperature anomalies are imposed on the mid-Holocene, the hydrological response is muted, relative to the preindustrial. Mid-Holocene changes in moisture sources to the analyzed regions across the Pacific reveal potentially complex relationships between ENSO-like conditions and boundary conditions. Given the complex impacts of ENSO-like conditions on various aspects of the hydrological cycle, we suggest that proxy record insights into paleo-ENSO variability are most likely to be robust when synthesized from a network of many spatially diverse archives, which can account for the potential nonstationarity of ENSO teleconnections under different boundary conditions.

  15. Evaluation of the impact of ENSO on precipitation extremes in southern Brazil considering the ODP phases

    Science.gov (United States)

    Firpo, M. A.; Sansigolo, C. A.

    2011-12-01

    One of the most important modes of interannual variability from ocean-atmosphere system is the El Niño/Southern Oscillation - ENSO. The Brazil southern region belongs to the Southeast of South America, where there is a strong signal of ENSO, especially over the precipitation. This phenomenon can be modulated by low frequency climate patterns, especially the dominant pattern of North Pacific, called Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Attempting to better understand these interactions, the objective of this study was to investigate the seasonal impact of ENSO events over the Southern Brazil precipitation, taking into account the PDO phases. The dataset used in this study, consist of monthly precipitation records of six well distributed stations from southern Brazil (Rio Grande do Sul state). From these series it was calculated a unique index, which was categorized in three classes, in order to obtain the extremes: very below normal precipitation (below the percentile 10), normal precipitation (between percentile 10 and 90) and very above normal precipitation (above the percentile 90). To characterize the ENSO events, it was applied the Trenberth (1997) criteria in the index proposed by Bunge and Clarke (2009), which corrects the inconsistencies between the conventional SST index for Niño 3.4 region and the Southern Oscillation Index before 1950, going beyond the incoherence for decadal scale. For PDO, it was used the index proposed by Mantua et al. (1997). Contingency tables were constructed to analyze the seasonal, simultaneous, and 3, 6, 9 and 12 months lagged relationships between ENSO events (El Niño, neutral, La Niña), and extreme precipitation anomalies (categories), also considering the PDO phases during the 1913-1999 period. Moreover, a wavelet analysis was used to check the coherency and phase among these 3 times series during the 1913-2006 period. The Contingency Tables analysis showed that, generally, there were more positive (negative) precipitation

  16. Future changes in rainfall associated with ENSO, IOD and changes in the mean state over Eastern Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Endris, Hussen Seid; Lennard, Christopher; Hewitson, Bruce; Dosio, Alessandro; Nikulin, Grigory; Artan, Guleid A.

    2018-05-01

    This study examines the projected changes in the characteristics of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) in terms of mean state, intensity and frequency, and associated rainfall anomalies over eastern Africa. Two regional climate models driven by the same four global climate models (GCMs) and the corresponding GCM simulations are used to investigate projected changes in teleconnection patterns and East African rainfall. The period 1976-2005 is taken as the reference for present climate and the far-future climate (2070-2099) under Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) is analyzed for projected change. Analyses of projections based on GCMs indicate an El Niño-like (positive IOD-like) warming pattern over the tropical Pacific (Indian) Ocean. However, large uncertainties remain in the projected future changes in ENSO/IOD frequency and intensity with some GCMs show increase of ENSO/IOD frequency and intensity, and others a decrease or no/small change. Projected changes in mean rainfall over eastern Africa based on the GCM and RCM data indicate a decrease in rainfall over most parts of the region during JJAS and MAM seasons, and an increase in rainfall over equatorial and southern part of the region during OND, with the greatest changes in equatorial region. During ENSO and IOD years, important changes in the strength of the teleconnections are found. During JJAS, when ENSO is an important driver of rainfall variability over the region, both GCM and RCM projections show an enhanced La Niña-related rainfall anomaly compared to the present period. Although the long rains (MAM) have little association with ENSO in the reference period, both GCMs and RCMs project stronger ENSO teleconnections in the future. On the other hand, during the short rains (OND), a dipole future change in rainfall teleconnection associated with ENSO and IOD is found, with a stronger ENSO/IOD related rainfall anomaly over the eastern part of the domain

  17. Where was ENSO strongest?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cane, M. A.; Chen, D.; Kaplan, A.

    2008-12-01

    Mark A. Cane, Dake Chen, Alexey Kaplan The description of this session begins: "Historical SST records suggest that for the past three decades, ENSO has been anomalously strong" and goes on to ask why. In this talk we dispute this interpretation of the historical record from within the historical record. In particular, we suggest that the most "anomalously strong" period in the historical ENSO record is the late nineteenth century. This claim requires a discussion of how we measure "ENSO strength". We also speculate on possible reasons for the strength of ENSO in this earlier period. Finally, we consult the models, and in reiteration of the collective conclusion of all speakers at this session, find that the riddles the models provide are inelegant and disobliging, lacking the cryptic wisdom of the classical oracles.

  18. Enhanced biennial variability in the Pacific due to Atlantic capacitor effect.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Lei; Yu, Jin-Yi; Paek, Houk

    2017-03-20

    The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the variability in the Pacific subtropical highs (PSHs) have major impacts on social and ecological systems. Here we present an Atlantic capacitor effect mechanism to suggest that the Atlantic is a key pacemaker of the biennial variability in the Pacific including that in ENSO and the PSHs during recent decades. The 'charging' (that is, ENSO imprinting the North Tropical Atlantic (NTA) sea surface temperature (SST) via an atmospheric bridge mechanism) and 'discharging' (that is, the NTA SST triggering the following ENSO via a subtropical teleconnection mechanism) processes alternate, generating the biennial rhythmic changes in the Pacific. Since the early 1990s, a warmer Atlantic due to the positive phase of Atlantic multidecadal oscillation and global warming trend has provided more favourable background state for the Atlantic capacitor effect, giving rise to enhanced biennial variability in the Pacific that may increase the occurrence frequency of severe natural hazard events.

  19. Atmospheric QBO and ENSO indices with high vertical resolution from GNSS radio occultation temperature measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilhelmsen, Hallgeir; Ladstädter, Florian; Scherllin-Pirscher, Barbara; Steiner, Andrea K.

    2018-03-01

    We provide atmospheric temperature variability indices for the tropical troposphere and stratosphere based on global navigation satellite system (GNSS) radio occultation (RO) temperature measurements. By exploiting the high vertical resolution and the uniform distribution of the GNSS RO temperature soundings we introduce two approaches, both based on an empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis. The first method utilizes the whole vertical and horizontal RO temperature field from 30° S to 30° N and from 2 to 35 km altitude. The resulting indices, the leading principal components, resemble the well-known patterns of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the tropics. They provide some information on the vertical structure; however, they are not vertically resolved. The second method applies the EOF analysis on each altitude level separately and the resulting indices contain information on the horizontal variability at each densely available altitude level. They capture more variability than the indices from the first method and present a mixture of all variability modes contributing at the respective altitude level, including the QBO and ENSO. Compared to commonly used variability indices from QBO winds or ENSO sea surface temperature, these new indices cover the vertical details of the atmospheric variability. Using them as proxies for temperature variability is also of advantage because there is no further need to account for response time lags. Atmospheric variability indices as novel products from RO are expected to be of great benefit for studies on atmospheric dynamics and variability, for climate trend analysis, as well as for climate model evaluation.

  20. Non-radial oscillations of rotating stars and their relevance to the short-period oscillations of cataclysmic variables

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Papaloizou, J.; Pringle, J.E.

    1978-01-01

    The usual hypothesis, that the short-period coherent oscillations seen in cataclysmic variables are attributable to g modes in a slowly rotating white dwarf, is considered. It is shown that this hypothesis is untenable for three main reasons: (i) the observed periods are too short for reasonable white dwarf models, (ii) the observed variability of the oscillations is too rapid and (iii) the expected rotation of the white dwarf, due to accretion, invalidates the slow rotation assumption on which standard g-mode theory is based. The low-frequency spectrum of a rotating pulsating star is investigated taking the effects of rotation fully into account. In this case there are two sets of low-frequency modes, the g modes, and modes similar to Rossby waves in the Earth's atmosphere and oceans, which are designated r modes. Typical periods for such modes are 1/m times the rotation period of the white dwarfs outer layers (m is the aximuthal wavenumber). It is concluded that non-radial oscillations of rotating white dwarfs can account for the properties of the oscillations seen in dwarf novae. Application of these results to other systems is also discussed. (author)

  1. A New ENSO Index Derived from Satellite Measurements of Column Ozone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ziemke, J. R.; Chandra, S.; Oman, L. D.; Bhartia, P. K.

    2010-01-01

    Column Ozone measured in tropical latitudes from Nimbus 7 total ozone mapping spectrometer (TOMS), Earth Probe TOMS, solar backscatter ultraviolet (SBUV), and Aura ozone monitoring instrument (OMI) are used to derive an El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) index. This index, which covers a time period from 1979 to the present, is defined as the Ozone ENSO Index (OEI) and is the first developed from atmospheric trace gas measurements. The OEI is constructed by first averaging monthly mean column ozone over two broad regions in the western and eastern Pacific and then taking their difference. This differencing yields a self-calibrating ENSO index which is independent of individual instrument calibration offsets and drifts in measurements over the long record. The combined Aura OMI and MLS ozone data confirm that zonal variability in total column ozone in the tropics caused by ENSO events lies almost entirely in the troposphere. As a result, the OEI can be derived directly from total column ozone instead of tropospheric column ozone. For clear-sky ozone measurements a +1K change in Nino 3.4 index corresponds to +2.9 Dobson Unit (DU) change in the OEI, while a +1 hPa change in SOI coincides with a -1.7DU change in the OEI. For ozone measurements under all cloud conditions these numbers are +2.4DU and -1.4 DU, respectively. As an ENSO index based upon ozone, it is potentially useful in evaluating climate models predicting long term changes in ozone and other trace gases.

  2. Impacts of El Niño Southern Oscillation and Indian Ocean Dipole on dengue incidence in Bangladesh.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Banu, Shahera; Guo, Yuming; Hu, Wenbiao; Dale, Pat; Mackenzie, John S; Mengersen, Kerrie; Tong, Shilu

    2015-11-05

    Dengue dynamics are driven by complex interactions between hosts, vectors and viruses that are influenced by environmental and climatic factors. Several studies examined the role of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in dengue incidence. However, the role of Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), a coupled ocean atmosphere phenomenon in the Indian Ocean, which controls the summer monsoon rainfall in the Indian region, remains unexplored. Here, we examined the effects of ENSO and IOD on dengue incidence in Bangladesh. According to the wavelet coherence analysis, there was a very weak association between ENSO, IOD and dengue incidence, but a highly significant coherence between dengue incidence and local climate variables (temperature and rainfall). However, a distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) revealed that the association between dengue incidence and ENSO or IOD were comparatively stronger after adjustment for local climate variables, seasonality and trend. The estimated effects were nonlinear for both ENSO and IOD with higher relative risks at higher ENSO and IOD. The weak association between ENSO, IOD and dengue incidence might be driven by the stronger effects of local climate variables such as temperature and rainfall. Further research is required to disentangle these effects.

  3. Strong influence of El Niño Southern Oscillation on flood risk around the world

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ward, P.J.; Jongman, B.; Kummu, M.S.; Dettinger, M.D.; Sperna Weiland, F.C.; Winsemius, H.C.

    2014-01-01

    El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most dominant interannual signal of climate variability and has a strong influence on climate over large parts of the world. In turn, it strongly influences many natural hazards (such as hurricanes and droughts) and their resulting socioeconomic impacts,

  4. Transverse Motion of a Particle with an Oscillating Charge and Variable Mass in a Magnetic Field

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alisultanov, Z. Z.; Ragimkhanov, G. B.

    2018-03-01

    The problem of motion of a particle with an oscillating electric charge and variable mass in an uniform magnetic field has been solved. Three laws of mass variation have been considered: linear growth, oscillations, and stepwise growth. Analytical expressions for the particle velocity at different time dependences of the particle mass are obtained. It is established that simultaneous consideration of changes in the mass and charge leads to a significant change in the particle trajectory.

  5. Voluntary reduction of force variability via modulation of low-frequency oscillations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Seoung Hoon; Casamento-Moran, Agostina; Yacoubi, Basma; Christou, Evangelos A

    2017-09-01

    Visual feedback can influence the force output by changing the power in frequencies below 1 Hz. However, it remains unknown whether visual guidance can help an individual reduce force variability voluntarily. The purpose of this study, therefore, was to determine whether an individual can voluntarily reduce force variability during constant contractions with visual guidance, and whether this reduction is associated with a decrease in the power of low-frequency oscillations (0-1 Hz) in force and muscle activity. Twenty young adults (27.6 ± 3.4 years) matched a force target of 15% MVC (maximal voluntary contraction) with ankle dorsiflexion. Participants performed six visually unrestricted contractions, from which we selected the trial with the least variability. Following, participants performed six visually guided contractions and were encouraged to reduce their force variability within two guidelines (±1 SD of the least variable unrestricted trial). Participants decreased the SD of force by 45% (P  0.2). The decrease in force variability was associated with decreased low-frequency oscillations (0-1 Hz) in force (R 2  = 0.59), which was associated with decreased low-frequency oscillations in EMG bursts (R 2  = 0.35). The reduction in low-frequency oscillations in EMG burst was positively associated with power in the interference EMG from 35 to 60 Hz (R 2  = 0.47). In conclusion, voluntary reduction of force variability is associated with decreased low-frequency oscillations in EMG bursts and consequently force output. We provide novel evidence that visual guidance allows healthy young adults to reduce force variability voluntarily likely by adjusting the low-frequency oscillations in the neural drive.

  6. Influences of the ENSO event on the rainfall of dry Sudan

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    One third of the world's population live in places where medium to high water stress is compounded by pollution, climate change, inefficient management approaches and governance issues. This study detects the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events and signals, and the influences of the different ENSO stages in the ...

  7. A synthesis of ENSO effects on drylands in Australia, North America and South America

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Holmgren, M.; Stapp, P.; Dickman, C.; Gracia, C.; Graham, S.

    2005-01-01

    Fundamentally, El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a climatic and oceanographic phenomenon, but it has profound effects on terrestrial ecosystems. Although the ecological effects of ENSO are becoming increasingly known from a wide range of terrestrial ecosystems (Holmgren et al., 2001), their

  8. Mechanism of ENSO influence on the South Asian monsoon rainfall in global model simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joshi, Sneh; Kar, Sarat C.

    2018-02-01

    Coupled ocean atmosphere global climate models are increasingly being used for seasonal scale simulation of the South Asian monsoon. In these models, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) evolve as coupled air-sea interaction process. However, sensitivity experiments with various SST forcing can only be done in an atmosphere-only model. In this study, the Global Forecast System (GFS) model at T126 horizontal resolution has been used to examine the mechanism of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forcing on the monsoon circulation and rainfall. The model has been integrated (ensemble) with observed, climatological and ENSO SST forcing to document the mechanism on how the South Asian monsoon responds to basin-wide SST variations in the Indian and Pacific Oceans. The model simulations indicate that the internal variability gets modulated by the SSTs with warming in the Pacific enhancing the ensemble spread over the monsoon region as compared to cooling conditions. Anomalous easterly wind anomalies cover the Indian region both at 850 and 200 hPa levels during El Niño years. The locations and intensity of Walker and Hadley circulations are altered due to ENSO SST forcing. These lead to reduction of monsoon rainfall over most parts of India during El Niño events compared to La Niña conditions. However, internally generated variability is a major source of uncertainty in the model-simulated climate.

  9. Effects of ocean initial perturbation on developing phase of ENSO in a coupled seasonal prediction model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Hyun-Chul; Kumar, Arun; Wang, Wanqiu

    2018-03-01

    Coupled prediction systems for seasonal and inter-annual variability in the tropical Pacific are initialized from ocean analyses. In ocean initial states, small scale perturbations are inevitably smoothed or distorted by the observational limits and data assimilation procedures, which tends to induce potential ocean initial errors for the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) prediction. Here, the evolution and effects of ocean initial errors from the small scale perturbation on the developing phase of ENSO are investigated by an ensemble of coupled model predictions. Results show that the ocean initial errors at the thermocline in the western tropical Pacific grow rapidly to project on the first mode of equatorial Kelvin wave and propagate to the east along the thermocline. In boreal spring when the surface buoyancy flux weakens in the eastern tropical Pacific, the subsurface errors influence sea surface temperature variability and would account for the seasonal dependence of prediction skill in the NINO3 region. It is concluded that the ENSO prediction in the eastern tropical Pacific after boreal spring can be improved by increasing the observational accuracy of subsurface ocean initial states in the western tropical Pacific.

  10. Reforecasting the ENSO Events in the Past Fifty-Seven Years (1958-2014)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, B.; Shin, C. S.; Shukla, J.; Marx, L.; Balmaseda, M.; Halder, S.; Dirmeyer, P.; Kinter, J. L.

    2016-12-01

    A set of ensemble seasonal reforecasts for 1958-2014 is conducted using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2), initialized with observation-based ocean, atmosphere, land and sea ice reanalyses, including the Eu­ropean Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) global ocean reanalysis version 4, the ERA-40 atmospheric reanalysis, the NCEP CFS Reanalysis for atmosphere, land and sea ice, and the NASA Global Land Data Assimilation System reanalysis version 2.0 for land. The purpose is to examine a long and continuous seasonal reforecast dataset from a modern seasonal forecast system to be used by the research community. In comparison with other current reforecasts, this dataset allows us to evaluate the degree to which El Niño and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events can be predicted, using a larger sample of events. Furthermore, we can directly compare the predictability of the ENSO events in 1960s-70s with the more widely studied ENSO events occurring since the 1980s to examine the state-of-the-art seasonal forecast system's capability at different phases of global climate change and multidecadal variability. A major concern is whether the seasonal reforecasts before 1979 have useful skill when there were fewer ocean observations. Our preliminary examination of the reforecasts shows that, although the reforecasts have lower skill in predicting the SST anomalies in the North Pacific and North Atlantic before 1979, the prediction skill of the ENSO onset and development for 1958-1978 is comparable to that for 1979-2014. The skill of the earlier predictions declines faster in the ENSO decaying phase because the reforecasts initialized after the summer season persistently predict lingering wind and SST anomalies in the eastern equatorial Pacific during the decaying phase of several major ENSO events in the 1960s-70s. Since the 1980s, the reforecasts initialized in fall overestimate the peak SST

  11. Salinity anomaly as a trigger for ENSO events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Jieshun; Huang, Bohua; Zhang, Rong-Hua; Hu, Zeng-Zhen; Kumar, Arun; Balmaseda, Magdalena A; Marx, Lawrence; Kinter, James L

    2014-10-29

    According to the classical theories of ENSO, subsurface anomalies in ocean thermal structure are precursors for ENSO events and their initial specification is essential for skillful ENSO forecast. Although ocean salinity in the tropical Pacific (particularly in the western Pacific warm pool) can vary in response to El Niño events, its effect on ENSO evolution and forecasts of ENSO has been less explored. Here we present evidence that, in addition to the passive response, salinity variability may also play an active role in ENSO evolution, and thus important in forecasting El Niño events. By comparing two forecast experiments in which the interannually variability of salinity in the ocean initial states is either included or excluded, the salinity variability is shown to be essential to correctly forecast the 2007/08 La Niña starting from April 2007. With realistic salinity initial states, the tendency to decay of the subsurface cold condition during the spring and early summer 2007 was interrupted by positive salinity anomalies in the upper central Pacific, which working together with the Bjerknes positive feedback, contributed to the development of the La Niña event. Our study suggests that ENSO forecasts will benefit from more accurate salinity observations with large-scale spatial coverage.

  12. Influence of ENSO on coastal flood hazard and exposure at the global-scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muis, S.; Haigh, I. D.; Guimarães Nobre, G.; Aerts, J.; Ward, P.

    2017-12-01

    The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant signal of interannual climate variability. The unusually warm (El Niño) and cold (La Niña) oceanic and atmospheric conditions in the tropical Pacific drives interannual variability in both mean and extreme sea levels, which in turn may influence the probabilities and impacts of coastal flooding. We assess the influence of ENSO on coastal flood hazard and exposure using daily timeseries from the Global Time and Surge Reanalysis (GTSR) dataset (Muis et al., 2016). As the GTSR timeseries do not include steric effects (i.e. density differences), we improve the GTSR timeseries by adding steric sea levels. Evaluation against observed sea levels shows that the including steric sea levels leads to a much better representation of the seasonal and interannual variability. We show that sea level anomalies occur during ENSO years with higher sea levels during La Niña in the South-Atlantic, Indian Ocean and the West Pacific, whereas sea levels are lower in the east Pacific. The pattern is generally inversed for El Niño. We also find an effect of ENSO in the number of people exposed to coastal flooding. Although the effect is minor at the global-scale, it may be important for flood risk management to consider at the national or sub national levels. Previous studies at the global-scale have used tide gauge observation to assess the influence of ENSO on extreme sea levels. The advantage of our approach over observations is that GTSR provides a consistent dataset with a full global coverage for the period 1979-2014. This allows us to assess ENSO's influence on sea level extremes anywhere in the world. Furthermore, it enables us to also calculate the impacts of extreme sea levels in terms of coastal flooding and exposed population. ReferencesMuis et al (2016) A global reanalysis of storm surges and extreme sea levels. Nature Communications.7:11969. doi:10.1038/ncomms11969.

  13. Do regions outside the tropical Pacific influence ENSO through atmospheric teleconnections?

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Dayan, H.; Izumo, T.; Vialard, J.; Lengaigne, M.; Masson, S

    This paper aims at identifying oceanic regions outside the tropical Pacific, which may influence the El Ni�o Southern Oscillation (ENSO) through interannual modulation of equatorial Pacific winds An Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM) 7...

  14. El ciclo anual de la hidrología de Colombia en relación con el ENSO y la NAO

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    1998-01-01

    . The impact of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO phenomenon ENSO and of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO on the annual cycle of the Colombian hydroclimatology is quantified. Results of the NCEP/NCAR Climatic Reanalysis Project are used to compare the climatology of the annual cycle of diverse variables and to evaluate the behavior during the extreme phases of ENSO. Of particular importance, during El Niño there is a weakening of the low-level westerly jet penetrating from the Pacific Ocean inland Colombia, that constitutes one main circulation mechanism that helps to explain the observed negative hydrological anomalies during El Niño in Colombia. Correlation analysis confirms the strong influence of ENSO and NAO on the annual cycle of rainfall and river discharges anomalies in Colombia, in particular during SON and DJF.

  15. Influence of Mean State Changes on the Structure of ENSO in a Tropical Coupled GCM.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Codron, Francis; Vintzileos, Augustin; Sadourny, Robert

    2001-03-01

    This study examines the response of the climate simulated by the Institut Pierre Simon Laplace tropical Pacific coupled general circulation model to two changes in parameterization: an improved coupling scheme at the coast, and the introduction of a saturation mixing ratio limiter in the water vapor advection scheme, which improves the rainfall distribution over and around orography. The main effect of these modifications is the suppression of spurious upwelling off the South American coast in Northern Hemisphere summer. Coupled feedbacks then extend this warming over the whole basin in an El Niño-like structure, with a maximum at the equator and in the eastern part of the basin. The mean precipitation pattern widens and moves equatorward as the trade winds weaken.This warmer mean state leads to a doubling of the standard deviation of interannual SST anomalies, and to a longer ENSO period. The structure of the ENSO cycle also shifts from westward propagation in the original simulation to a standing oscillation. The simulation of El Niño thus improves when compared to recent observed events. The study of ENSO spatial structure and lagged correlations shows that these changes of El Niño characteristics are caused by both the increase of amplitude and the modification of the spatial structure of the wind stress response to SST anomalies.These results show that both the mean state and variability of the tropical ocean can be very sensitive to biases or forcings, even geographically localized. They may also give some insight into the mechanisms responsible for the changes in ENSO characteristics due to decadal variability or climate change.

  16. Impacts of ENSO on air-sea oxygen exchange: Observations and mechanisms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eddebbar, Yassir A.; Long, Matthew C.; Resplandy, Laure; Rödenbeck, Christian; Rodgers, Keith B.; Manizza, Manfredi; Keeling, Ralph F.

    2017-05-01

    Models and observations of atmospheric potential oxygen (APO ≃ O2 + 1.1 * CO2) are used to investigate the influence of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on air-sea O2 exchange. An atmospheric transport inversion of APO data from the Scripps flask network shows significant interannual variability in tropical APO fluxes that is positively correlated with the Niño3.4 index, indicating anomalous ocean outgassing of APO during El Niño. Hindcast simulations of the Community Earth System Model (CESM) and the Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace model show similar APO sensitivity to ENSO, differing from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory model, which shows an opposite APO response. In all models, O2 accounts for most APO flux variations. Detailed analysis in CESM shows that the O2 response is driven primarily by ENSO modulation of the source and rate of equatorial upwelling, which moderates the intensity of O2 uptake due to vertical transport of low-O2 waters. These upwelling changes dominate over counteracting effects of biological productivity and thermally driven O2 exchange. During El Niño, shallower and weaker upwelling leads to anomalous O2 outgassing, whereas deeper and intensified upwelling during La Niña drives enhanced O2 uptake. This response is strongly localized along the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, leading to an equatorial zonal dipole in atmospheric anomalies of APO. This dipole is further intensified by ENSO-related changes in winds, reconciling apparently conflicting APO observations in the tropical Pacific. These findings suggest a substantial and complex response of the oceanic O2 cycle to climate variability that is significantly (>50%) underestimated in magnitude by ocean models.

  17. Perturbation method of studying the EI Niño oscillation with two parameters by using the delay sea-air oscillator model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Du Zeng-Ji; Lin Wan-Tao; Mo Jia-Qi

    2012-01-01

    The EI Niño-southern oscillation (ENSO) is an interannual phenomenon involved in tropical Pacific ocean-atmosphere interactions. In this paper, we develop an asymptotic method of solving the nonlinear equation using the ENSO model. Based on a class of the oscillator of the ENSO model, a approximate solution of the corresponding problem is studied employing the perturbation method

  18. Greenland ice core evidence for spatial and temporal variability of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Chylek, P.; Folland, C.K.; Frankcombe, L.M.; Dijkstra, H.A.; Lesins, G.; Dubey, M.

    2012-01-01

    [1] The Greenland δ18O ice core record is used as a proxy for Greenland surface air temperatures and to interpret Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) variability. An analysis of annual δ18O data from six Arctic ice cores (five from Greenland and one from Canada's Ellesmere Island) suggests a

  19. Oscillation Criteria of First Order Neutral Delay Differential Equations with Variable Coefficients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fatima N. Ahmed

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Some new oscillation criteria are given for first order neutral delay differential equations with variable coefficients. Our results generalize and extend some of the well-known results in the literature. Some examples are considered to illustrate the main results.

  20. Action-angle variables for the harmonic oscillator : ambiguity spin x duplication spin

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oliveira, C.R. de; Malta, C.P.

    1983-08-01

    The difficulties of obtaining for the harmonic oscillator a well defined unitary transformation to action-angle variables were overcome by M. Moshinsky and T.H. Seligman through the introduction of a spinlike variable (ambiguity spin) from a classical point of view. The difficulty of defining a unitary phase operator for the harmonic oscillator was overcome by Roger G. Newton also through the introduction of a spinlike variable (named duplication spin by us) but within a quantum framework. The relation between the ambiguity spin and the duplication spin by introducing these two types of spins in the canonical transformation to action-angle variables is investigated. Doing this it is possible to obtain both well defined unitary transformation and phase operator. (Author) [pt

  1. Interdecadal variability of the tropospheric biennial oscillation in the western North Pacific

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zheng Bin; Lin Ailan; Gu Dejun; Li Chunhui

    2008-01-01

    The observed tropospheric biennial oscillation (TBO) in the western North Pacific (WNP) monsoon region has an interdecadal variability with a period of 40–50 yr. That suggests a weaker effect of the TBO on the East Asia followed by a stronger one. A simple analytic model was designed to investigate the mechanism of the interdecadal variability of the TBO. The results indicated that a local TBO air-sea system not only supports the TBO variability in the WNP monsoon region but also produces an interdecadal variability of the TBO

  2. Balances de glaciares y clima en Bolivia y Perú: impacto de los eventos ENSO

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    1995-01-01

    sensiblemente y esto afecta el término ablación del balance de masa. Se verifica en estas series de 20 años que todos los años ENSO estén asociados a balances negativos. Durante la mayoría de los eventos ENSO, en el sur de Perú y en Bolivia, se produce una reducción de las precipitaciones, lo que contribuye a acentuar el efecto ENSO sobre los balances. Estos acontecimientos tienen una influencia importante sobre la evolución actual de los glaciares andinos, caracterizada por un retroceso rápido. GLACIER BALANCE AND CLIMATE IN BOLIVIA AND PERU: EFFECTS OF ENSO EVENTS. Mass balance of Zongo Glacier (Cordillera Real, Bolivia was reconstructed by using hydrological data. Moreover, the “linear model” (Llliboutry was applied on the balance measurements from Yanamarey and Uruashraju ablation zone (Cordillera Blanca, Peru. Compared with temperature and precipitation data from reliable meteorological stations, these 15-20 yr time series of glacier balances allow us to point out temperature as the principal factor controlling mass balance evolution. Temperature variability strongly depends on ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation events: a clear positive deviation of maxima and minima is generally observed during these events, which strongly increases the ablation. Consequently, a systematical negative mass balance is associated with ENSO events. In Southern Peru and in Bolivia, this tendance is enhanced by a frequent decrease in the precipitation, which modifies the accumulation term at high altitude. So, it is demonstrated that ENSO phenomena closely control the glacier mass balance variability and have a great influence in the rapid glacier retreat observed in this area of Tropical Andes.

  3. An MJO-Mediated Mechanism to Explain ENSO and IOD Impacts on East African Short Rains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zaitchik, B. F.; Berhane, F.; Gnanadesikan, A.

    2015-12-01

    Previous studies have found that the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) have significant impacts on rainfall over East Africa (EA) during the short rains (Oct-Dec). However, not all ENSO and IOD events are associated with significant precipitation anomalies over EA. Our analysis shows that the IOD and ENSO influence EA rainfall by modifying the MJO. Composite analysis of rainfall and outgoing longwave radiation data show that the MJO over the Indian Ocean (phases 2 and 3 of the Wheeler and Hendon index) is associated with significant increase in precipitation over EA during El Niño. In La Niña and non-ENSO years, the MJO over the Indian Ocean has very weak impacts on EA convection and precipitation. Although previous studies have found that El Niño / La Niña events are associated with anomalous wetness/dryness over EA, the associations are not evident in the absence of the MJO. Similarly, the IOD exhibits strong associations with EA precipitation when there is MJO activity over the Indian Ocean. During the positive phase of the IOD, the MJO over the Indian Ocean has impacts that extend to EA. In the absence of the MJO, however, the IOD shows weak associations with EA precipitation. Furthermore, there are more MJO days in the Indian Ocean during El Niño and positive IOD events, which implies stronger impacts on EA. During La Niña events more MJO days are observed in the Pacific Ocean, favoring subsidence over the western Indian Ocean and dry anomalies over EA. These observations suggest two critical MJO-related questions that must be addressed in order to explain EA short rain variability typically attributed to ENSO or IOD: first, how do ENSO and IOD modify background conditions in a way that causes Indian Ocean MJO activity to be more strongly connected to EA under El Niño and IOD positive conditions, and second, why is it that El Niño and IOD positive states slow MJO propagation over the Indian Ocean and speed it over

  4. Atmosphere-Ocean Variations in the Indo-Pacific Sector during ENSO Episodes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lau, Ngar-Cheung; Nath, Mary Jo

    2003-01-01

    The influences of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events on air-sea interaction in the Indian-western Pacific (IWP) Oceans have been investigated using a general circulation model. Observed monthly sea surface temperature (SST) variations in the deep tropical eastern/central Pacific (DTEP) have been inserted in the lower boundary of this model through the 1950-99 period. At all maritime grid points outside of DTEP, the model atmosphere has been coupled with an oceanic mixed layer model with variable depth. Altogether 16 independent model runs have been conducted.Composite analysis of selected ENSO episodes illustrates that the prescribed SST anomalies in DTEP affect the surface atmospheric circulation and precipitation patterns in IWP through displacements of the near-equatorial Walker circulation and generation of Rossby wave modes in the subtropics. Such atmospheric responses modulate the surface fluxes as well as the oceanic mixed layer depth, and thereby establish a well-defined SST anomaly pattern in the IWP sector several months after the peak in ENSO forcing in DTEP. In most parts of the IWP region, the net SST tendency induced by atmospheric changes has the same polarity as the local composite SST anomaly, thus indicating that the atmospheric forcing acts to reinforce the underlying SST signal.By analyzing the output from a suite of auxiliary experiments, it is demonstrated that the SST perturbations in IWP (which are primarily generated by ENSO-related atmospheric changes) can, in turn, exert notable influences on the atmospheric conditions over that region. This feedback mechanism also plays an important role in the eastward migration of the subtropical anticyclones over the western Pacific in both hemispheres.

  5. Volcanic Tephra ejected in south eastern Asia is the sole cause of all historic ENSO events. This natural aerosol plume has been intensified by an anthropogenic plume in the same region in recent decades which has intensified some ENSO events and altered the Southern Oscillation Index characteristics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Potts, K. A.

    2017-12-01

    ENSO events are the most significant perturbation of the climate system. Previous attempts to link ENSO with volcanic eruptions typically failed because only large eruptions across the globe which eject tephra into the stratosphere were considered. I analyse all volcanic eruptions in South Eastern (SE) Asia (10ºS to 10ºN and from 90ºE to 160ºE) the most volcanically active area in the world with over 23% of all eruptions in the Global Volcanism Program database occurring here and with 5 volcanoes stated to have erupted nearly continuously for 30 years. SE Asia is also the region where the convective arm of the thermally direct Walker Circulation occurs driven by the intense equatorial solar radiation which creates the high surface temperature. The volcanic tephra plume intercepts some of the solar radiation by absorption/reflection which cools the surface and heats the atmosphere creating a temperature inversion compared to periods without the plume. This reduces convection and causes the Walker Cell and Trade Winds to weaken. This reduced wind speed causes the central Pacific Ocean to warm which creates convection there which further weakens the Walker Cell. With the reduced wind stress the western Pacific warm pool migrates east. This creates an ENSO event which continues until the tephra plume reduces, typically when the SE Asian monsoon commences, and convection is re-established over SE Asia and the Pacific warm pool migrates back to the west. Correlations of SE Asian tephra and the ENSO indices are typically over 0.80 at p indices. If two events A and B correlate 5 options are available: 1. A causes B; 2. B causes A; 3. C, another event, causes A &B simultaneously; 4. It's a coincidence; and 5. The relationship is complex with feedback. The volcanic correlations only allow options 1 or 4 as ENSO cannot cause volcanoes to erupt and are backed up by several independent satellite datasets. I conclude volcanic and anthropogenic aerosols over SE Asia are the

  6. Disturbed solution of the El Niño-southern oscillation sea—air delayed oscillator

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xie Feng; Lin Wan-Tao; Lin Yi-Hua; Mo Jia-Qi

    2011-01-01

    A class of delayed oscillators of El Niño-southern oscillation (ENSO) models is considered. Using the delayed theory, the perturbed theory and other methods, the asymptotic expansions of the solutions for ENSO models are obtained and the asymptotic behaviour of solution of corresponding problem is studied. (general)

  7. The Defining Characteristics of ENSO Extremes and the Strong 2015/2016 El Niño

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santoso, Agus; Mcphaden, Michael J.; Cai, Wenju

    2017-12-01

    The year 2015 was special for climate scientists, particularly for the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) research community, as a major El Niño finally materialized after a long pause since the 1997/1998 extreme El Niño. It was scientifically exciting since, due to the short observational record, our knowledge of an extreme El Niño has been based only on the 1982/1983 and 1997/1998 events. The 2015/2016 El Niño was marked by many environmental disasters that are consistent with what is expected for an extreme El Niño. Considering the dramatic impacts of extreme El Niño, and the risk of a potential increase in frequency of ENSO extremes under greenhouse warming, it is timely to evaluate how the recent event fits into our understanding of ENSO extremes. Here we provide a review of ENSO, its nature and dynamics, and through analysis of various observed key variables, we outline the processes that characterize its extremes. The 2015/2016 El Niño brings a useful perspective into the state of understanding of these events and highlights areas for future research. While the 2015/2016 El Niño is characteristically distinct from the 1982/1983 and 1997/1998 events, it still can be considered as the first extreme El Niño of the 21st century. Its extremity can be attributed in part to unusually warm condition in 2014 and to long-term background warming. In effect, this study provides a list of physically meaningful indices that are straightforward to compute for identifying and tracking extreme ENSO events in observations and climate models.

  8. The forgotten role of central volume in low frequency oscillations of heart rate variability.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Manuela Ferrario

    Full Text Available The hypothesis that central volume plays a key role in the source of low frequency (LF oscillations of heart rate variability (HRV was tested in a population of end stage renal disease patients undergoing conventional hemodialysis (HD treatment, and thus subject to large fluid shifts and sympathetic activation. Fluid overload (FO in 58 chronic HD patients was assessed by whole body bioimpedance measurements before the midweek HD session. Heart Rate Variability (HRV was measured using 24-hour Holter electrocardiogram recordings starting before the same HD treatment. Time domain and frequency domain analyses were performed on HRV signals. Patients were retrospectively classified in three groups according to tertiles of FO normalized to the extracellular water (FO/ECW%. These groups were also compared after stratification by diabetes mellitus. Patients with the low to medium hydration status before the treatment (i.e. 1st and 2nd FO/ECW% tertiles showed a significant increase in LF power during last 30 min of HD compared to dialysis begin, while no significant change in LF power was seen in the third group (i.e. those with high pre-treatment hydration values. In conclusion, several mechanisms can generate LF oscillations in the cardiovascular system, including baroreflex feedback loops and central oscillators. However, the current results emphasize the role played by the central volume in determining the power of LF oscillations.

  9. The forgotten role of central volume in low frequency oscillations of heart rate variability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferrario, Manuela; Moissl, Ulrich; Garzotto, Francesco; Cruz, Dinna N; Tetta, Ciro; Signorini, Maria G; Ronco, Claudio; Grassmann, Aileen; Cerutti, Sergio; Guzzetti, Stefano

    2015-01-01

    The hypothesis that central volume plays a key role in the source of low frequency (LF) oscillations of heart rate variability (HRV) was tested in a population of end stage renal disease patients undergoing conventional hemodialysis (HD) treatment, and thus subject to large fluid shifts and sympathetic activation. Fluid overload (FO) in 58 chronic HD patients was assessed by whole body bioimpedance measurements before the midweek HD session. Heart Rate Variability (HRV) was measured using 24-hour Holter electrocardiogram recordings starting before the same HD treatment. Time domain and frequency domain analyses were performed on HRV signals. Patients were retrospectively classified in three groups according to tertiles of FO normalized to the extracellular water (FO/ECW%). These groups were also compared after stratification by diabetes mellitus. Patients with the low to medium hydration status before the treatment (i.e. 1st and 2nd FO/ECW% tertiles) showed a significant increase in LF power during last 30 min of HD compared to dialysis begin, while no significant change in LF power was seen in the third group (i.e. those with high pre-treatment hydration values). In conclusion, several mechanisms can generate LF oscillations in the cardiovascular system, including baroreflex feedback loops and central oscillators. However, the current results emphasize the role played by the central volume in determining the power of LF oscillations.

  10. A High-Resolution ENSO-Driven Rainfall Record Derived From an Exceptionally Fast Growing Stalagmite From Niue Island (South Pacific)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Troy, S.; Aharon, P.; Lambert, W. J.

    2012-12-01

    El Niño-Southern Oscillation's (ENSO) dominant control over the present global climate and its unpredictable response to a global warming makes the study of paleo-ENSO important. So far corals, spanning the Tropical Pacific Ocean, are the most commonly used geological archives of paleo-ENSO. This is because corals typically exhibit high growth rates (>1 cm/yr), and reproduce reliably surface water temperatures at sub-annual resolution. However there are limitations to coral archives because their time span is relatively brief (in the order of centuries), thus far making a long and continuous ENSO record difficult to achieve. On the other hand stalagmites from island settings can offer long and continuous records of ENSO-driven rainfall. Niue Island caves offer an unusual opportunity to investigate ENSO-driven paleo-rainfall because the island is isolated from other large land masses, making it untainted by continental climate artifacts, and its geographical location is within the Tropical Pacific "rain pool" (South Pacific Convergence Zone; SPCZ) that makes the rainfall variability particularly sensitive to the ENSO phase switches. We present here a δ18O and δ13C time series from a stalagmite sampled on Niue Island (19°00' S, 169°50' W) that exhibits exceptionally high growth rates (~1.2 mm/yr) thus affording a resolution comparable to corals but for much longer time spans. A precise chronology, dating back to several millennia, was achieved by U/Th dating of the stalagmite. The stalagmite was sampled using a Computer Automated Mill (CAM) at 300 μm increments in order to receive sub-annual resolution (every 3 months) and calcite powders of 50-100 μg weight were analyzed for δ18O and δ13C using a Continuous Flow Isotope Ratio Mass Spectrometer (CF-IRMS). The isotope time series contains variable shifts at seasonal, inter-annual, and inter-decadal periodicities. The δ13C and δ18O yield ranges of -3.0 to -13.0 (‰ VPDB) and -3.2 to -6.2 (‰ VPDB

  11. An Ocean Biology-induced Negative Feedback on ENSO in the Tropical Pacific Climate System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, R. H.

    2016-02-01

    Biological conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean (e.g., phytoplankton biomass) are strongly regulated by physical changes associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The existence and variation of phytoplankton biomass, in turn, act to modulate the vertical penetration of the incoming sunlight in the upper ocean, presenting an ocean biology-induced heating (OBH) effect on the climate system. Previously, a penetration depth of solar radiation in the upper ocean (Hp) is defined to describe the related bio-climate connections. Parameterized in terms of its relationship with the sea surface temperature (SST) in the tropical Pacific, an empirical model for interannual Hp variability has been derived from remotely sensed ocean color data, which is incorporated into a hybrid coupled model (HCM) to represent OBH effects. In this paper, various HCM experiments are performed to demonstrate the bio-feedback onto ENSO, including a climatological Hp run (in which Hp is prescribed as seasonally varying only), interannual Hp runs (with different intensities of interannually varying OBH effects), and a run in which the sign of the OBH effect is artificially reversed. Significant modulating impacts on interannual variability are found in the HCM, characterized by a negative feedback between ocean biology and the climate system in the tropical Pacific: the stronger the OBH feedback, the weaker the interannual variability. Processes involved in the feedback are analyzed; it is illustrated that the SST is modulated indirectly by ocean dynamical processes induced by OBH. The significance and implication of the OBH effects are discussed for their roles in ENSO variability and model biases in the tropical Pacific.

  12. Dynamics of the Indian monsoon and ENSO relationships in the SINTEX global coupled model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Terray, P. [LODYC, Paris (France); Universite Paris 7, Paris (France); Guilyardi, E. [LSCE, Gif-sur-Yvette (France); CGAM, Reading (United Kingdom); Fischer, A.S. [LODYC, Paris (France); Delecluse, P. [LODYC, Paris (France); LSCE, Gif-sur-Yvette (France)

    2005-02-01

    This paper uses recent gridded climatological data and a coupled general circulation model (GCM) simulation in order to assess the relationships between the interannual variability of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) and the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The focus is on the dynamics of the ISM-ENSO relationships and the ability of the state-of-the-art coupled GCM to reproduce the complex lead-lag relationships between the ISM and the ENSO. The coupled GCM is successful in reproducing the ISM circulation and rainfall climatology in the Indian areas even though the entire ISM circulation is weaker relative to that observed. In both observations and in the simulation, the ISM rainfall anomalies are significantly associated with fluctuations of the Hadley circulation and the 200 hPa zonal wind anomalies over the Indian Ocean. A quasi-biennial time scale is found to structure the ISM dynamical and rainfall indices in both cases. Moreover, ISM indices have a similar interannual variability in the simulation and observations. The coupled model is less successful in simulating the annual cycle in the tropical Pacific. Despite some problems in simulation of the annual cycle and the Southern Oscillation, the coupled model captures some aspects of the interannual variability in the tropical Pacific. ENSO events are phase-locked with the annual cycle as observed, but are of reduced amplitude relative to the observations. Wavelet analysis of the model Nino34 time series shows enhanced power in the 2-4 year band, as compared to the 2-8 year range for observations during the 1950-2000 period. The ISM circulation is weakened during ENSO years in both the simulation and the observations. However, the model fails to reproduce the lead-lag relationship between the ISM and Nino34 sea surface temperatures (SSTs). Furthermore, lag correlations show that the delayed response of the wind stress over the central Pacific to ISM variability is insignificant in the simulation. These

  13. Observation of strong continuous-variable Einstein-Podolsky-Rosen entanglement using shaped local oscillators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shinjo, Ami; Hashiyama, Naoyuki; Koshio, Akane; Eto, Yujiro; Hirano, Takuya

    2016-10-01

    The continuous-variable (CV) Einstein-Podolsky-Rosen (EPR) paradox and steering are demonstrated using a pulsed light source and waveguides. We shorten the duration of the local oscillator (LO) pulse by using parametric amplification to improve the temporal mode-matching between the entangled pulse and the LO pulse. After correcting for the amplifier noise, the product of the measured conditional variance of the quadrature-phase amplitudes is 0.74 EPR-Reid criterion.

  14. Interdecadal modulation of the relationship between ENSO, IPO and precipitation: insights from tree rings in Australia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Heinrich, Ingo [School of Resources, Environment and Society, Australian National University, Canberra, ACT (Australia); Helmholtz Centre Potsdam, GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Climate Dynamics and Landscape Evolution, Potsdam (Germany); Weidner, Kathrin [Helmholtz Centre Potsdam, GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Climate Dynamics and Landscape Evolution, Potsdam (Germany); Forschungszentrum Juelich GmbH, Institute for Chemistry and Dynamics of the Geosphere, Juelich (Germany); Helle, Gerhard [Helmholtz Centre Potsdam, GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Climate Dynamics and Landscape Evolution, Potsdam (Germany); Vos, Heinz [Forschungszentrum Juelich GmbH, Institute for Chemistry and Dynamics of the Geosphere, Juelich (Germany); Lindesay, Janette; Banks, John C.G. [School of Resources, Environment and Society, Australian National University, Canberra, ACT (Australia)

    2009-07-15

    Australian climate-proxy reconstructions based on tree rings from tropical and subtropical forests have not been achieved so far due to the rarity of species producing anatomically distinct annual growth rings. Our study identifies the Australian Red Cedar (Toona ciliata) as one of the most promising tree species for tree-ring research in Australasia because this species exhibits distinct annual tree rings, a prerequisite for high quality tropical dendroclimatology. Based on these preliminary studies, we were able, for the first time in subtropical and tropical Australia, to develop a statistically robust, precisely dated and annually resolved chronology back to AD1854. We show that the variability in ring widths of T. ciliata is mainly dependent on annual precipitation. The developed proxy data series contains both high- and low-frequency climate signals which can be associated with the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). A comparison of different data sets (Brisbane precipitation, tree rings, coral luminescence record from the Great Barrier Reef, ENSO and IPO) revealed non-stationary correlation patterns throughout the twentieth century but little instability between the new tree-ring chronology and Brisbane precipitation. (orig.)

  15. The North Atlantic Oscillation: variability and interactions with the North Atlantic ocean and Artic sea ice

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jung, T

    2000-07-01

    The North Atlantic oscillation (NAO) represents the dominant mode of atmospheric variability in the North Atlantic region and describes the strengthening and weakening of the midlatitude westerlies. In this study, variability of the NAO during wintertime and its relationship to the North Atlantic ocean and Arctic sea ice is investigated. For this purpose, observational data are analyzed along with integrations of models for the Atlantic ocean, Arctic sea ice, and the coupled global climate system. From a statistical point of view, the observed NAO index shows unusually high variance on interdecadal time scales during the 20th century. Variability on other time scales is consistent with realizations of random processes (''white noise''). Recurrence of wintertime NAO anomalies from winter-to-winter with missing signals during the inbetween nonwinter seasons is primarily associated with interdecadal variability of the NAO. This recurrence indicates that low-frequency changes of the NAO during the 20th century were in part externally forced. (orig.)

  16. Upper-Level Mediterranean Oscillation index and seasonal variability of rainfall and temperature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Redolat, Dario; Monjo, Robert; Lopez-Bustins, Joan A.; Martin-Vide, Javier

    2018-02-01

    The need for early seasonal forecasts stimulates continuous research in climate teleconnections. The large variability of the Mediterranean climate presents a greater difficulty in predicting climate anomalies. This article reviews teleconnection indices commonly used for the Mediterranean basin and explores possible extensions of one of them, the Mediterranean Oscillation index (MOi). In particular, the anomalies of the geopotential height field at 500 hPa are analyzed using segmentation of the Mediterranean basin in seven spatial windows: three at eastern and four at western. That is, different versions of an Upper-Level Mediterranean Oscillation index (ULMOi) were calculated, and monthly and annual variability of precipitation and temperature were analyzed for 53 observatories from 1951 to 2015. Best versions were selected according to the Pearson correlation, its related p value, and two measures of standardized error. The combination of the Balearic Sea and Libya/Egypt windows was the best for precipitation and temperature, respectively. The ULMOi showed the highest predictive ability in combination with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation index (AMOi) for the annual temperature throughout the Mediterranean basin. The best model built from the indices presented a final mean error between 15 and 25% in annual precipitation for most of the studied area.

  17. The influence of solar system oscillation on the variability of the total solar irradiance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yndestad, Harald; Solheim, Jan-Erik

    2017-02-01

    Total solar irradiance (TSI) is the primary quantity of energy that is provided to the Earth. The properties of the TSI variability are critical for understanding the cause of the irradiation variability and its expected influence on climate variations. A deterministic property of TSI variability can provide information about future irradiation variability and expected long-term climate variation, whereas a non-deterministic variability can only explain the past. This study of solar variability is based on an analysis of two TSI data series, one since 1700 A.D. and one since 1000 A.D.; a sunspot data series since 1610 A.D.; and a solar orbit data series from 1000 A.D. The study is based on a wavelet spectrum analysis. First, the TSI data series are transformed into a wavelet spectrum. Then, the wavelet spectrum is transformed into an autocorrelation spectrum to identify stationary, subharmonic and coincidence periods in the TSI variability. The results indicate that the TSI and sunspot data series have periodic cycles that are correlated with the oscillations of the solar position relative to the barycenter of the solar system, which is controlled by gravity force variations from the large planets Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus and Neptune. A possible explanation for solar activity variations is forced oscillations between the large planets and the solar dynamo. We find that a stationary component of the solar variability is controlled by the 12-year Jupiter period and the 84-year Uranus period with subharmonics. For TSI and sunspot variations, we find stationary periods related to the 84-year Uranus period. Deterministic models based on the stationary periods confirm the results through a close relation to known long solar minima since 1000 A.D. and suggest a modern maximum period from 1940 to 2015. The model computes a new Dalton-type sunspot minimum from approximately 2025 to 2050 and a new Dalton-type period TSI minimum from approximately 2040 to 2065.

  18. ENSO variations and drought occurrence in Indonesia and the Philippines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harger, J. R. E.

    The "El Nino-Southern Oscillation" (ENSO) consists of a sympathetic movement involving the Pacific ocean and associated atmosphere in an essentially chaotic manner along the equator. The system oscillates between extremes of the so-called "warm events" usually lasting 1 or 2 yr and involving movement of warm sea water from the western Pacific along the equator to impact on the west coast of the American continent and "cold events" associated with easterly trade-wind-induced flows of colder water from the eastern Pacific towards the west. Information drawn from meteorological records in southeast Asia clearly indicates that each event is unique in terms of the signature which it imposes on the rainfall and temperature from location to location. Nevertheless, a strong underlying pattern within the context of each event, itself apparently initiated or molded by the character of the preceding years, can be detected. This pattern permits relatively circumscribed predictions of forward conditions (drought intensity) for 2-3 yr, to be made once the event "locks in" for the duration of the warm event and at least 1 yr beyond. The character of the intervening non-ENSO years can also be projected but in a more tenuous, though fairly regular manner. When the non-ENSO years leading up to a warm event are scored in terms of the extent to which they depart from the secular warming trend for the warmest month using data from Jakarta and Semarang on the north coast of Java, the cumulative temperature deviations signal the character of the upcoming ENSO event. This signal does not, however, allow an exact determination to be made with respect to whether or not an ENSO event will occur in the next year. For the available historical instrumental data, all markedly upward-moving traces eventually delivered a hot dry season in east Indonesia. This sort of tendency within non-ENSO blocks can thus serve as a caution in the sense that a very hot ENSO event is likely in the offing. The

  19. Theoretical study of chemical reaction effects on vertical oscillating plate with variable temperature

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muthucumaraswamy R.

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available An exact solution to the flow of a viscous incompressible unsteady flow past an infinite vertical oscillating plate with variable temperature and mass diffusion is presented here, taking into account of the homogeneous chemical reaction of first-order. Both the plate temperature and the concentration level near the plate are raised linearly with respect to time. The dimensionless governing equations has been obtained by the Laplace transform method, when the plate is oscillating harmonically in its own plane. The effects of velocity and concentration are studied for different parameters like phase angle, chemical reaction parameter, thermal Grashof number, mass Grashof number, Schmidt number and time are studied. The solutions are valid only for small values of time t. It is observed that the velocity increases with decreasing phase angle ωt or chemical reaction parameter. .

  20. The interaction of thermal radiation on vertical oscillating plate with variable temperature and mass diffusion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muthucumaraswamy R.

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Thermal radiation effects on unsteady free convective flow of a viscous incompressible flow past an infinite vertical oscillating plate with variable temperature and mass diffusion has been studied. The fluid considered here is a gray, absorbing-emitting radiation but a non-scattering medium. The plate temperature is raised linearly with respect to time and the concentration level near the plate is also raised linearly with respect to time. An exact solution to the dimensionless governing equations has been obtained by the Laplace transform method, when the plate is oscillating harmonically in its own plane. The effects of velocity, temperature and concentration are studied for different parameters like phase angle, radiation parameter, Schmidt number, thermal Grashof number, mass Grashof number and time are studied. It is observed that the velocity increases with decreasing phase angle ωt. .

  1. Western tropical Pacific multidecadal variability forced by the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kucharski, F.; Sun, C.; Li, J.; Jin, F. F.; Kang, I. S.; Ding, R.

    2017-12-01

    Observational analysis suggests that the western tropical Pacific (WTP) sea surface temperature (SST) shows predominant variability over multidecadal time scales, which is unlikely to be explained by the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation. Here we show that this variability is largely explained by the remote Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO). A suite of Atlantic Pacemaker experiments successfully reproduces the WTP multidecadal variability and the AMO-WTP SST connection. The AMO warm SST anomaly generates an atmospheric teleconnection to the North Pacific, which weakens the Aleutian low and subtropical North Pacific westerlies. The wind changes induce a subtropical North Pacific SST warming through wind-evaporation-SST effect, and in response to this warming, the surface winds converge towards the subtropical North Pacific from the tropics, leading to anomalous cyclonic circulation and low pressure over the WTP region. The warm SST anomaly further develops due to the SST-sea level pressure-cloud-longwave radiation positive feedback. Our findings suggest that the Atlantic Ocean acts as a key pacemaker for the western Pacific decadal climate variability.

  2. Evaluation of the UK Met Office's HadGEM3-RA and HadRM3P regional climate models within South America-CORDEX simulations: ENSO related interannual precipitation variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bozkurt, D.; Rojas, M.

    2014-12-01

    This study aims to investigate and compare the ability of the UK Met Office's HadGEM3-RA and HadRM3P regional climate models (RCMs) to simulate mean and interannual variability of precipitation over South America with a special focus on Chile. The HadGEM3-RA is a regional version of the newly developed HadGEM3 global model and the HadRM3P is based on the earlier HadCM3 global model. The RCMs simulations were carried out at 0.44o x 0.44o degree resolution over South America-CORDEX domain for the period 1989-2008. The initial and boundary conditions were provided by ERA-Interim Reanalysis data available at 6-h intervals with a resolution of 1.5o x 1.5o in the horizontal and 37 pressure levels. We compare the results against a number of observational datasets, including gridded dataset of CRU, UDEL, TRMM and GPCP. Moreover, available station data is derived from Direccion General de Aguas (DGA) mainly for Central Chile, which is the heartland of Chile with the highest population and important economic activities. The analysis is mainly focused on evaluating the abilities of the RCMs in simulating spatial pattern and ENSO related precipitation variability in different subregions of South America-CORDEX domain. In general, both RCMs have a good skill in reproducing spatial pattern and annual cycle of observed precipitation in climatically different subregions. However, both RCMs tend to underestimate precipitation in the Amazon Basin, which is more pronounced in the HadRM3P simulations. On the contrary, the RCMs tend to overestimate the precipitation over the Andes and southern Chile. The overestimation could be related to the physical core of the RCMs, but the discrepancies could also arise due to insufficient station network, especially in the mountainous areas, potentially yielding smaller precipitation quantities in the observed data than the true ones. In terms of interannual variability, the models capture ENSO related wet and dry interannual precipitation

  3. Teleconnections in Groundwater of U.S. Principal Aquifers to the Non-Stationarity of ENSO, NAO, PDO, and AMO

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gurdak, J. J.; Kuss, A. M.

    2012-12-01

    Groundwater will play an important role in society's adaptation to climate variability and change. Therefore, it is particularly important to detect and quantify teleconnections in groundwater with non-stationarity in climate variability on interannual to multidecadal timescales because of the tangible and near-term implications for water-resource management. Interannual to multidecadal climate variability partially controls precipitation distribution in space and time, drought frequency and severity, snowmelt runoff, streamflow, and other hydrologic processes that profoundly affects surface-water resources. However, the effects of interannual to multidecadal climate variability on recharge rates and mechanisms and other subsurface hydrologic processes that affect groundwater quantity and quality are largely unknown in most aquifers of the United States (U.S.) and other regions of the world. Here we use singular spectrum analysis (SSA), wavelet coherence analysis, and lag correlation to quantify the effects of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) (2-7 year cycle), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) (3-6 year cycle), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) (10-25 year cycle), and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) (50-70 year cycle) on precipitation, groundwater levels, simulated groundwater pumping, and climate varying recharge rates across the regionally extensive Central Valley (52,000 km2), Basin and Range (700,000 km2), High Plains (450,000 km2), and North Atlantic Coastal Plain (130,000 km2) Principal Aquifers (PAs) of the U.S. The results indicate that precipitation, recharge, and groundwater levels are partially affected by interannual to multidecadal climate variability and groundwater-level fluctuations are not solely a function of temporal patterns in pumping. ENSO and PDO have a greater control than NAO and AMO on variability in precipitation and groundwater levels across the U.S., particularly in the western and central PAs. At many locations, recharge

  4. Sensitivity of North American agriculture to ENSO-based climate scenarios and their socio-economic consequences: Modeling in an integrated assessment framework

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rosenberg, N.J.; Izaurralde, R.C.; Brown, R.A.; Sands, R.D. [Pacific Northwest National Lab., Richland, WA (United States); Legler, D. [Florida State Univ., Tallahassee, FL (United States). Center for Ocean Atmosphere Prediction Studies; Srinivasan, R. [Texas A and M Univ., College Station, TX (United States). Blacklands Research Center; Tiscareno-Lopez, M.

    1997-09-01

    A group of Canadian, US and Mexican natural resource specialists, organized by the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) under its North American Energy, Environment and Economy (NA3E) Program, has applied a simulation modeling approach to estimating the impact of ENSO-driven climatic variations on the productivity of major crops grown in the three countries. Methodological development is described and results of the simulations presented in this report. EPIC (the Erosion Productivity Impact Calculator) was the agro-ecosystem model selected-for this study. EPIC uses a daily time step to simulate crop growth and yield, water use, runoff and soil erosion among other variables. The model was applied to a set of so-called representative farms parameterized through a specially-assembled Geographic Information System (GIS) to reflect the soils, topography, crop management and weather typical of the regions represented. Fifty one representative farms were developed for Canada, 66 for the US and 23 for Mexico. El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) scenarios for the EPIC simulations were created using the historic record of sea-surface temperature (SST) prevailing in the eastern tropical Pacific for the period October 1--September 30. Each year between 1960 and 1989 was thus assigned to an ENSO category or state. The ENSO states were defined as El Nino (EN, SST warmer than the long-term mean), Strong El Nino (SEN, much warmer), El Viejo (EV, cooler) and Neutral (within {+-}0.5 C of the long-term mean). Monthly means of temperature and precipitation were then calculated at each farm for the period 1960--1989 and the differences (or anomalies) between the means in Neutral years and EN, SEN and EV years determined. The average monthly anomalies for each ENSO state were then used to create new monthly statistics for each farm and ENSO-state combination. The adjusted monthly statistics characteristic of each ENSO state were then used to drive a stochastic-weather simulator

  5. The influence of ENSO on an oceanic eddy pair in the South China Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chu, Xiaoqing; Dong, Changming; Qi, Yiquan

    2017-03-01

    An eddy pair off the Vietnam coast is one of the most important features of the summertime South China Sea circulation. Its variability is of interest due to its profound impact on regional climate, ecosystems, biological processes, and fisheries. This study examines the influence of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a basin-scale climatic mode, on the interannual variability of this regional eddy pair using satellite observational data and historical hydrographic measurements. Over the last three decades, the eddy pair strengthened in 1994 and 2002, and weakened in 2006, 2007, and 2008. It was absent in 1988, 1995, 1998, and 2010, coinciding with strong El Nino-to-La Nina transitions. Composite analyses showed that the strong transition events of ENSO led to radical changes in the summer monsoon, through the forcing of a unique sea surface temperature anomaly structure over the tropical Indo-Pacific basin. With weaker zonal wind, a more northward wind direction, and the disappearance of a pair of positive and negative wind stress curls, the eastward current jet turns northward along the Vietnam coast and the eddy pair disappears.

  6. ENSO-Type Signals Recorded in the Late Cretaceous Laminated Sediments of Songliao Basin, Northeast China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, E.; Wang, C.; Hinnov, L. A.; Wu, H.

    2014-12-01

    The quasi-periodic, ca. 2-7 year El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon globally influences the inter-annual variability of temperature and precipitation. Global warming may increase the frequency of extreme ENSO events. Although the Cretaceous plate tectonic configuration was different from today, the sedimentary record suggests that ENSO-type oscillations had existed at the time of Cretaceous greenhouse conditions. Cored Cretaceous lacustrine sediments from the Songliao Basin in Northeast China (SK-1 cores from the International Continental Drilling Program) potentially offer a partially varved record of Cretaceous paleoclimate. Fourteen polished thin sections from the depth interval 1096.12-1096.53 m with an age of 84.4 Ma were analyzed by optical and scanning electron microscopy (SEM). ImageJ software was applied to extract gray scale curves from optical images at pixel resolution. We tracked minimum values of the gray scale curves to estimate the thickness of each lamina. Five sedimentary structures were recognized: flaser bedding, wavy bedding, lenticular bedding, horizontal bedding, and massive layers. The mean layer thicknesses with different sedimentary structures range from 116 to 162mm, very close to the mean sedimentation rate estimated for this sampled interval, 135mm/year, indicating that the layers bounded by pure clay lamina with the minimum gray values are varves. SEM images indicate that a varve is composed, in succession, of one lamina rich in coarse silt, one lamina rich in fine silt, one clay-rich lamina with some silt, and one clay-rich lamina. This suggests that a Cretaceous year featured four distinct depositional seasons, two of which were rainy and the others were lacking precipitation. Spectral analysis of extended intervals of the tuned gray scale curve indicates the presence of inter-annual periodicities of 2.2-2.7 yr, 3.5-6.1 year, and 10.1-14.5 year consistent with those of modern ENSO cycles and solar cycles, as well as

  7. Forest Understory Fire in the Brazilian Amazon in ENSO and Non-ENSO Years: Area Burned and Committed Carbon Emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alencar, A.; Nepstad, D.; Ver-Diaz, M. Del. C.

    2004-01-01

    "Understory fires" that burn the floor of standing forests are one of the most important types of forest impoverishment in the Amazon, especially during the severe droughts of El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) episodes. However, we are aware of no estimates of the areal extent of these fires for the Brazilian Amazon and, hence, of their contribution to Amazon carbon fluxes to the atmosphere. We calculated the area of forest understory fires for the Brazilian Amazon region during an El Nino (1998) and a non El Nino (1995) year based on forest fire scars mapped with satellite images for three locations in eastern and southern Amazon, where deforestation is concentrated. The three study sites represented a gradient of both forest types and dry season severity. The burning scar maps were used to determine how the percentage of forest that burned varied with distance from agricultural clearings. These spatial functions were then applied to similar forest/climate combinations outside of the study sites to derive an initial estimate for the Brazilian Amazon. Ninety-one percent of the forest area that burned in the study sites was within the first kilometer of a clearing for the non ENSO year and within the first four kilometers for the ENSO year. The area of forest burned by understory forest fire during the severe drought (ENSO) year (3.9 millions of hectares) was 13 times greater than the area burned during the average rainfall year (0.2 million hectares), and twice the area of annual deforestation rate. Dense forest was, proportionally, the forest area most affected by understory fires during the El Nino year, while understory fires were concentrated in transitional forests during the year of average rainfall. Our estimate of aboveground tree biomass killed by fire ranged from 0.06 Pg to 0.38 Pg during the ENSO and from 0,004 Pg to 0,024 Pg during the non ENSO.

  8. Asian Summer Monsoon Rainfall associated with ENSO and its Predictability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shin, C. S.; Huang, B.; Zhu, J.; Marx, L.; Kinter, J. L.; Shukla, J.

    2015-12-01

    The leading modes of the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) rainfall variability and their seasonal predictability are investigated using the CFSv2 hindcasts initialized from multiple ocean analyses over the period of 1979-2008 and observation-based analyses. It is shown that the two leading empirical orthogonal function (EOF) modes of the observed ASM rainfall anomalies, which together account for about 34% of total variance, largely correspond to the ASM responses to the ENSO influences during the summers of the developing and decaying years of a Pacific anomalous event, respectively. These two ASM modes are then designated as the contemporary and delayed ENSO responses, respectively. It is demonstrated that the CFSv2 is capable of predicting these two dominant ASM modes up to the lead of 5 months. More importantly, the predictability of the ASM rainfall are much higher with respect to the delayed ENSO mode than the contemporary one, with the predicted principal component time series of the former maintaining high correlation skill and small ensemble spread with all lead months whereas the latter shows significant degradation in both measures with lead-time. A composite analysis for the ASM rainfall anomalies of all warm ENSO events in this period substantiates the finding that the ASM is more predictable following an ENSO event. The enhanced predictability mainly comes from the evolution of the warm SST anomalies over the Indian Ocean in the spring of the ENSO maturing phases and the persistence of the anomalous high sea surface pressure over the western Pacific in the subsequent summer, which the hindcasts are able to capture reasonably well. The results also show that the ensemble initialization with multiple ocean analyses improves the CFSv2's prediction skill of both ENSO and ASM rainfall. In fact, the skills of the ensemble mean hindcasts initialized from the four different ocean analyses are always equivalent to the best ones initialized from any individual ocean

  9. Zonally resolved impact of ENSO on the stratospheric circulation and water vapor entry values

    Science.gov (United States)

    Konopka, Paul; Ploeger, Felix; Tao, Mengchu; Riese, Martin

    2016-10-01

    Based on simulations with the Chemical Lagrangian Model of the Stratosphere (CLaMS) for the period 1979-2013, with model transport driven by the ECMWF ERA-Interim reanalysis, we discuss the impact of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the variability of the dynamics, water vapor, ozone, and mean age of air (AoA) in the tropical lower stratosphere during boreal winter. Our zonally resolved analysis at the 390 K potential temperature level reveals that not only (deseasonalized) ENSO-related temperature anomalies are confined to the tropical Pacific (180-300°E) but also anomalous wave propagation and breaking, as quantified in terms of the Eliassen-Palm (EP) flux divergence, with strongest local contribution during the La Niña phase. This anomaly is coherent with respective anomalies of water vapor (±0.5 ppmv) and ozone (±100 ppbv) derived from CLaMS being in excellent agreement with the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder observations. Thus, during El Niño a more zonally symmetric wave forcing drives a deep branch of the Brewer-Dobson (BD) circulation. During La Niña this forcing increases at lower levels (≈390 K) over the tropical Pacific, likely influencing the shallow branch of the BD circulation. In agreement with previous studies, wet (dry) and young (old) tape recorder anomalies propagate upward in the subsequent months following El Niño (La Niña). Using CLaMS, these anomalies are found to be around +0.3 (-0.2) ppmv and -4 (+4) months for water vapor and AoA, respectively. The AoA ENSO anomaly is more strongly affected by the residual circulation (≈2/3) than by eddy mixing (≈1/3).

  10. A study of Solar-Enso correlation with southern Brazil tree ring index (1955- 1991)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rigozo, N.; Nordemann, D.; Vieira, L.; Echer, E.

    The effects of solar activity and El Niño-Southern Oscillation on tree growth in Southern Brazil were studied by correlation analysis. Trees for this study were native Araucaria (Araucaria Angustifolia)from four locations in Rio Grande do Sul State, in Southern Brazil: Canela (29o18`S, 50o51`W, 790 m asl), Nova Petropolis (29o2`S, 51o10`W, 579 m asl), Sao Francisco de Paula (29o25`S, 50o24`W, 930 m asl) and Sao Martinho da Serra (29o30`S, 53o53`W, 484 m asl). From these four sites, an average tree ring Index for this region was derived, for the period 1955-1991. Linear correlations were made on annual and 10 year running averages of this tree ring Index, of sunspot number Rz and SOI. For annual averages, the correlation coefficients were low, and the multiple regression between tree ring and SOI and Rz indicates that 20% of the variance in tree rings was explained by solar activity and ENSO variability. However, when the 10 year running averages correlations were made, the coefficient correlations were much higher. A clear anticorrelation is observed between SOI and Index (r=-0.81) whereas Rz and Index show a positive correlation (r=0.67). The multiple regression of 10 year running averages indicates that 76% of the variance in tree ring INdex was explained by solar activity and ENSO. These results indicate that the effects of solar activity and ENSO on tree rings are better seen on long timescales.

  11. The North Atlantic Oscillation: variability and interactions with the North Atlantic ocean and Artic sea ice

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jung, T.

    2000-07-01

    The North Atlantic oscillation (NAO) represents the dominant mode of atmospheric variability in the North Atlantic region and describes the strengthening and weakening of the midlatitude westerlies. In this study, variability of the NAO during wintertime and its relationship to the North Atlantic ocean and Arctic sea ice is investigated. For this purpose, observational data are analyzed along with integrations of models for the Atlantic ocean, Arctic sea ice, and the coupled global climate system. From a statistical point of view, the observed NAO index shows unusually high variance on interdecadal time scales during the 20th century. Variability on other time scales is consistent with realizations of random processes (''white noise''). Recurrence of wintertime NAO anomalies from winter-to-winter with missing signals during the inbetween nonwinter seasons is primarily associated with interdecadal variability of the NAO. This recurrence indicates that low-frequency changes of the NAO during the 20th century were in part externally forced. (orig.)

  12. Impact of including surface currents on simulation of Indian Ocean variability with the POAMA coupled model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhao, Mei; Wang, Guomin; Hendon, Harry H.; Alves, Oscar [Bureau of Meteorology, Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, Melbourne (Australia)

    2011-04-15

    Impacts on the coupled variability of the Indo-Pacific by including the effects of surface currents on surface stress are explored in four extended integrations of an experimental version of the Bureau of Meteorology's coupled seasonal forecast model POAMA. The first pair of simulations differs only in their treatment of momentum coupling: one version includes the effects of surface currents on the surface stress computation and the other does not. The version that includes the effect of surface currents has less mean-state bias in the equatorial Pacific cold tongue but produces relatively weak coupled variability in the Tropics, especially that related to the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) and El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The version without the effects of surface currents has greater bias in the Pacific cold tongue but stronger IOD and ENSO variability. In order to diagnose the role of changes in local coupling from changes in remote forcing by ENSO for causing changes in IOD variability, a second set of simulations is conducted where effects of surface currents are included only in the Indian Ocean and only in the Pacific Ocean. IOD variability is found to be equally reduced by inclusion of the local effects of surface currents in the Indian Ocean and by the reduction of ENSO variability as a result of including effects of surface currents in the Pacific. Some implications of these results for predictability of the IOD and its dependence on ENSO, and for ocean subsurface data assimilation are discussed. (orig.)

  13. How are streamflow responses to the El Nino Southern Oscillation affected by watershed characteristics?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rice, Joshua S.; Emanuel, Ryan E.

    2017-05-01

    Understanding the factors that influence how global climate phenomena, such as the El-Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), affect streamflow behavior is an important area of research in the hydrologic sciences. While large-scale patterns in ENSO-streamflow relationships have been thoroughly studied, and are relatively well-understood, information is scarce concerning factors that affect variation in ENSO responses from one watershed to another. To this end, we examined relationships between variability in ENSO activity and streamflow for 2731 watersheds across the conterminous U.S. from 1970 to 2014 using a novel approach to account for the intermediary role of precipitation. We applied an ensemble of regression techniques to describe relationships between variability in ENSO activity and streamflow as a function of watershed characteristics including: hydroclimate, topography, geomorphology, geographic location, land cover, soil characteristics, bedrock geology, and anthropogenic influences. We found that variability in watershed scale ENSO-streamflow relationships was strongly related to factors including: precipitation timing and phase, forest cover, and interactions between watershed topography and geomorphology. These, and other influential factors, share in common the ability to affect the partitioning and movement of water within watersheds. Our results demonstrate that the conceptualization of watersheds as signal filters for hydroclimate inputs, commonly applied to short-term rainfall-runoff responses, also applies to long-term hydrologic responses to sources of recurrent climate variability. These results also show that watershed processes, which are typically studied at relatively fine spatial scales, are also critical for understanding continental scale hydrologic responses to global climate.

  14. The homotopic method of travelling wave solution for El Niño tropic sea–air coupled oscillator

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mo Jiaqi; Lin Wantao

    2008-01-01

    The EI Niño and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is an interannual phenomenon involved in the tropical Pacific sea–air interactions. In this paper, an asymptotic method of solving nonlinear equations for the ENSO model is proposed. And based on a class of oscillator of the ENSO model and by employing the method of homotopic mapping, the approximate solution of equations for the corresponding ENSO model is studied. It is proved from the results that homotopic method can be used for analysing the sea surface temperature anomaly in the equatorial Pacific of the sea–air oscillator for the ENSO model

  15. Rapid oscillations in cataclysmic variables. III. An oblique rotator in AE aquarii

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Patternson, J.

    1979-01-01

    A rapid, strictly periodic oscillation has been discovered in the light curve of the novalike variable AE Aquarii. The fundamental period is 33.076737 s, with comparable power at the first harmonic. The amplitude averages 0.2--0.3% but can exceed 1% in flares. Pulse timings around the binary orbit prove that the periodicity arises in the white dwarf, and lead to an accurate measurement of the projected orbital velocity. The velocity curve and other constraints lead to a mass determination for the component stars :0.74 +- 0.06 M/sub sun/ for the late-type star and 0.94 +- 0.10 M/sub sun/ for the white dwarf. Estimates are also given for the system dimensions, luminosity, distance, and mass transfer rate.Quasi-periodic oscillations are also detected in flares, and have periods near the coherent periods of 16.5 and 33 s. Their characteristics suggest an origin in gaseous blobs produced by instabilities near the inner edge of the accretion disk.A model is presented in which the strict periodicity arises from the rotation of an accreting, magnetized white dwarf, with a surface field of 10 6 --10 7 gauss. Future spectroscopic, polarimetric, and X-ray observations should provide critical tests for predictions of the model

  16. Spatio-Temporal Variability of the Phase of Total Ozone Quasi-Decennial Oscillations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Visheratin, K. N.

    2017-12-01

    The SBUV/SBUV2 (65° S-65° N) and Bodeker Scientific (90° S-90° N) satellite databases have been used for composite and cross-wavelet analyses of the spatio-temporal variability of phase relations between a 11-year cycle of solar activity (SA) and quasi-decennial oscillations (QDOs) of total ozone content (TOC). For globally average TOC values, the QDO maxima coincide in phase with the solar-activity maxima, and amplitude variations of TOC correlate with those of the 11-year solar cycle. According to the analysis of amplitude and phase of QDOs for the zonal average TOC fields, a QDO amplitude is about 6-7 Dobson Units (DU) in the high northern and southern latitudes, and it does not exceed 2-3 DU in the tropic regions. The latitudinal TOC variations are distinguished by a delay of the quasi-decennial oscillation phase in the southern latitudes in comparison with the northern latitudes. The TOC maxima phase coincides with the SA maxima phase in the tropic regions; the TOC variations go ahead of the SA variations, on average, in moderate and high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere; the TOC variations are behind the SA variations in the Southern Hemisphere. The phase delay between TOC QDO maxima in the northern and southern latitudes appears to increase in the course of time, and the TOC quasi-decennial variations in the Arctic and Antarctic subpolar regions occur approximately in an antiphase over the last two decades.

  17. Investigation into the Effects of the Variable Displacement Mechanism on Swash Plate Oscillation in High-Speed Piston Pumps

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xu Fang

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available High-speed, pressure-compensated variable displacement piston pumps are widely used in aircraft hydraulic systems for their high power density. The swash plate is controlled by the pressure-compensated valve, which uses pressure feedback so that the instantaneous output flow of the pump is exactly enough to maintain a presetting pressure. The oscillation of the swash plate is one of the major excitation sources in the high-speed piston pump, which may cause lower efficiency, shorter service life, and even serious damage. This paper presents an improved model to investigate the influence of the variable displacement mechanism on the swash plate oscillation and introduces some feasible ways to reduce oscillation of the swash plate. Most of the variable structural parameters of the variable displacement mechanism are taken into consideration, and their influences on swash plate oscillation are discussed in detail. The influence of the load pipe on the oscillation of the swash plate is considered in the improved model. A test rig is built and similarities between the experiments and simulated results prove that the simulation model can effectively predict the variable displacement mechanism state. The simulation results show that increasing the volume of the outlet chamber, the spring stiffness of the control valve, the action area of the actuator piston, and offset distance of the actuator piston can significantly reduce the oscillation amplitude of the swash plate. Furthermore, reducing the diameter of the control valve spool and the dead volume of the actuator piston chamber can also have a positive effect on oscillation amplitude reduction.

  18. Exact solution of thermal radiation on vertical oscillating plate with variable temperature and mass flux

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muthucumaraswamy R.

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Thermal radiation effects on unsteady flow past an infinite vertical oscillating plate in the presence of variable temperature and uniform mass flux is considered. The fluid considered here is a gray, absorbing-emitting radiation but a non-scattering medium. The plate temperature is raised linearly with time and the mass is diffused from the plate to the fluid at an uniform rate. The dimensionless governing equations are solved using the Laplace transform technique. The velocity, concentration and temperature are studied for different physical parameters like the phase angle, radiation parameter, Schmidt number, thermal Grashof number, mass Grashof number and time. It is observed that the velocity increases with decreasing phase angle ωt.

  19. Analysis of a continuous-variable quadripartite cluster state from a single optical parametric oscillator

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Midgley, S. L. W.; Olsen, M. K.; Bradley, A. S.; Pfister, O.

    2010-01-01

    We examine the feasibility of generating continuous-variable multipartite entanglement in an intracavity concurrent downconversion scheme that has been proposed for the generation of cluster states by Menicucci et al. [Phys. Rev. Lett. 101, 130501 (2008)]. By calculating optimized versions of the van Loock-Furusawa correlations we demonstrate genuine quadripartite entanglement and investigate the degree of entanglement present. Above the oscillation threshold the basic cluster state geometry under consideration suffers from phase diffusion. We alleviate this problem by incorporating a small injected signal into our analysis. Finally, we investigate squeezed joint operators. While the squeezed joint operators approach zero in the undepleted regime, we find that this is not the case when we consider the full interaction Hamiltonian and the presence of a cavity. In fact, we find that the decay of these operators is minimal in a cavity, and even depletion alone inhibits cluster state formation.

  20. ENSO-based probabilistic forecasts of March-May U.S. tornado and hail activity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lepore, Chiara; Tippett, Michael K.; Allen, John T.

    2017-09-01

    Extended logistic regression is used to predict March-May severe convective storm (SCS) activity based on the preceding December-February (DJF) El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) state. The spatially resolved probabilistic forecasts are verified against U.S. tornado counts, hail events, and two environmental indices for severe convection. The cross-validated skill is positive for roughly a quarter of the U.S. Overall, indices are predicted with more skill than are storm reports, and hail events are predicted with more skill than tornado counts. Skill is higher in the cool phase of ENSO (La Niña like) when overall SCS activity is higher. SCS forecasts based on the predicted DJF ENSO state from coupled dynamical models initialized in October of the previous year extend the lead time with only a modest reduction in skill compared to forecasts based on the observed DJF ENSO state.

  1. Ocean Chlorophyll as a Precursor of ENSO: An Earth System Modeling Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Jong-Yeon; Dunne, John P.; Stock, Charles A.

    2018-02-01

    Ocean chlorophyll concentration, a proxy for phytoplankton, is strongly influenced by internal ocean dynamics such as those associated with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Observations show that ocean chlorophyll responses to ENSO generally lead sea surface temperature (SST) responses in the equatorial Pacific. A long-term global Earth system model simulation incorporating marine biogeochemical processes also exhibits a preceding chlorophyll response. In contrast to simulated SST anomalies, which significantly lag the wind-driven subsurface heat response to ENSO, chlorophyll anomalies respond rapidly. Iron was found to be the key factor connecting the simulated surface chlorophyll anomalies to the subsurface ocean response. Westerly wind bursts decrease central Pacific chlorophyll by reducing iron supply through wind-driven thermocline deepening but increase western Pacific chlorophyll by enhancing the influx of coastal iron from the maritime continent. Our results mechanistically support the potential for chlorophyll-based indices to inform seasonal ENSO forecasts beyond previously identified SST-based indices.

  2. Spatial patterns of North Atlantic Oscillation influence on mass balance variability of European glaciers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Marzeion

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available We present and validate a set of minimal models of glacier mass balance variability. The most skillful model is then applied to reconstruct 7735 individual time series of mass balance variability for all glaciers in the European Alps and Scandinavia. Subsequently, we investigate the influence of atmospheric variability associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO on the glaciers' mass balances.

    We find a spatial coherence in the glaciers' sensitivity to NAO forcing which is caused by regionally similar mechanisms relating the NAO forcing to the mass balance: in southwestern Scandinavia, winter precipitation causes a correlation of mass balances with the NAO. In northern Scandinavia, temperature anomalies outside the core winter season cause an anti-correlation between NAO and mass balances. In the western Alps, both temperature and winter precipitation anomalies lead to a weak anti-correlation of mass balances with the NAO, while in the eastern Alps, the influences of winter precipitation and temperature anomalies tend to cancel each other, and only on the southern side a slight anti-correlation of mass balances with the NAO prevails.

  3. Impacts of Interannual Climate Variability on Agricultural and Marine Ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cane, M. A.; Zebiak, S.; Kaplan, A.; Chen, D.

    2001-01-01

    The El Nino - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant mode of global interannual climate variability, and seems to be the only mode for which current prediction methods are more skillful than climatology or persistence. The Zebiak and Cane intermediate coupled ocean-atmosphere model has been in use for ENSO prediction for more than a decade, with notable success. However, the sole dependence of its original initialization scheme and the improved initialization on wind fields derived from merchant ship observations proved to be a liability during 1997/1998 El Nino event: the deficiencies of wind observations prevented the oceanic component of the model from reaching the realistic state during the year prior to the event, and the forecast failed. Our work on the project was concentrated on the use of satellite data for improving various stages of ENSO prediction technology: model initialization, bias correction, and data assimilation. Close collaboration with other teams of the IDS project was maintained throughout.

  4. Air-temperature variations and ENSO effects in Indonesia, the Philippines and El Salvador. ENSO patterns and changes from 1866-1993

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harger, J. R. E.

    The major features in development of the "El Nino-Southern Oscillation" (ENSO) involve oscillation of the Pacific ocean-atmosphere in an essentially unpredictable (chaotic) fashion. The system moves between extremes of the so-called "warm events" lasting one or two years and involving movement of warm sea water from the western Pacific along the equator to impact on the west coast of the American continent and "cold-events" associated with easterly trade-wind-induced flows of colder water from the eastern Pacific towards the west. Historical data indicate that ENSO years as experienced by the Island of Java are either much warmer than non-ENSO years or only slightly, if at all, warmer than normal (non-ENSO) years. Hot-dry years within the ENSO warm event cycle are almost always followed by cooler wet years and vice versa. This pattern also extends to include the year immediately following the terminal year of an ENSO warm event set. The initial year of an ENSO warm event set may be either hot with a long dry season or relatively cool (nearer to the temperature of a non-ENSO year) and having a short dry season. In recent years, since 1950, of the 9 ENSO warm events, the initial year tends to have been hot and dry for 6 (1951, 1957, 1963, 1972, 1982, 1991) and neutral or cool and wet for 3 (1968, 1976, 1986). An area of 88,000 ha burned in 1991 (Jakarta Post 30 November 1991) largely in Kalimantan in association with the 1991-1992 ENSO event, an extensive pall of smoke developed over Kalimantan, Singapore and Malaysia during September-October of 1991. Surface vegetation-based fires continued to burn in East Kalimantan as of 29 April 1992 and extended into the 1992 dry season, in response to the ENSO conditions carrying forward from 1991. The increasing annual trend in air-temperature exhibited by the mean monthly values over the period 1866-1993, for the Jakarta and the Semarang data taken together is 1.64°C (0.0132°C per year from 25.771 to 27.409°C). The major

  5. Using transfer functions to quantify El Niño Southern Oscillation dynamics in data and models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacMartin, Douglas G; Tziperman, Eli

    2014-09-08

    Transfer function tools commonly used in engineering control analysis can be used to better understand the dynamics of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), compare data with models and identify systematic model errors. The transfer function describes the frequency-dependent input-output relationship between any pair of causally related variables, and can be estimated from time series. This can be used first to assess whether the underlying relationship is or is not frequency dependent, and if so, to diagnose the underlying differential equations that relate the variables, and hence describe the dynamics of individual subsystem processes relevant to ENSO. Estimating process parameters allows the identification of compensating model errors that may lead to a seemingly realistic simulation in spite of incorrect model physics. This tool is applied here to the TAO array ocean data, the GFDL-CM2.1 and CCSM4 general circulation models, and to the Cane-Zebiak ENSO model. The delayed oscillator description is used to motivate a few relevant processes involved in the dynamics, although any other ENSO mechanism could be used instead. We identify several differences in the processes between the models and data that may be useful for model improvement. The transfer function methodology is also useful in understanding the dynamics and evaluating models of other climate processes.

  6. Strong influence of El Niño Southern Oscillation on flood risk around the world

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ward, Philip J.; Jongman, B; Kummu, M.; Dettinger, Mike; Sperna Weiland, F.C; Winsemius, H.C

    2014-01-01

    El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most dominant interannual signal of climate variability and has a strong influence on climate over large parts of the world. In turn, it strongly influences many natural hazards (such as hurricanes and droughts) and their resulting socioeconomic impacts, including economic damage and loss of life. However, although ENSO is known to influence hydrology in many regions of the world, little is known about its influence on the socioeconomic impacts of floods (i.e., flood risk). To address this, we developed a modeling framework to assess ENSO’s influence on flood risk at the global scale, expressed in terms of affected population and gross domestic product and economic damages. We show that ENSO exerts strong and widespread influences on both flood hazard and risk. Reliable anomalies of flood risk exist during El Niño or La Niña years, or both, in basins spanning almost half (44%) of Earth’s land surface. Our results show that climate variability, especially from ENSO, should be incorporated into disaster-risk analyses and policies. Because ENSO has some predictive skill with lead times of several seasons, the findings suggest the possibility to develop probabilistic flood-risk projections, which could be used for improved disaster planning. The findings are also relevant in the context of climate change. If the frequency and/or magnitude of ENSO events were to change in the future, this finding could imply changes in flood-risk variations across almost half of the world’s terrestrial regions.

  7. Strong influence of El Niño Southern Oscillation on flood risk around the world

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ward, Philip J.; Jongman, Brenden; Kummu, Matti; Dettinger, Michael D.; Sperna Weiland, Frederiek C.; Winsemius, Hessel C.

    2014-01-01

    El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most dominant interannual signal of climate variability and has a strong influence on climate over large parts of the world. In turn, it strongly influences many natural hazards (such as hurricanes and droughts) and their resulting socioeconomic impacts, including economic damage and loss of life. However, although ENSO is known to influence hydrology in many regions of the world, little is known about its influence on the socioeconomic impacts of floods (i.e., flood risk). To address this, we developed a modeling framework to assess ENSO’s influence on flood risk at the global scale, expressed in terms of affected population and gross domestic product and economic damages. We show that ENSO exerts strong and widespread influences on both flood hazard and risk. Reliable anomalies of flood risk exist during El Niño or La Niña years, or both, in basins spanning almost half (44%) of Earth’s land surface. Our results show that climate variability, especially from ENSO, should be incorporated into disaster-risk analyses and policies. Because ENSO has some predictive skill with lead times of several seasons, the findings suggest the possibility to develop probabilistic flood-risk projections, which could be used for improved disaster planning. The findings are also relevant in the context of climate change. If the frequency and/or magnitude of ENSO events were to change in the future, this finding could imply changes in flood-risk variations across almost half of the world’s terrestrial regions. PMID:25331867

  8. Analysis of Disturbance Source Inducing by The Variable Speed Wind Turbine System Forced Power Oscillations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tan, Jin; Hu, Weihao; Wang, Xiaoru

    2015-01-01

    The main focus of forced low frequency oscillations is to analyze the disturbance source and the origin of forced oscillations. In this paper, the origin of low-frequency periodical oscillations induced by wind turbines’ mechanical power is investigated and the mechanism is studied of fluctuating...... power transfer through permanent magnet generator wind turbine system. Considering the tower shadow and the wind shear effect, the mechanical and generator coupling model is developed by PSCAD. Simulation is done to analyze the impacts on output power of operation points and mechanical fluctuation...... components. It is shown that when the oscillation frequency of tower shadow coincides with the system natural frequency, it may cause forced oscillations, whereas, the wind shear and natural wind speed fluctuation are not likely to induce forced oscillations....

  9. Rapid oscillations in cataclysmic variables. VI. Periodicities in erupting dwarf novae

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Patterson, J.

    1981-01-01

    We report an extensive study of the coherent oscillations observed in high-speed photometry of dwarf novae during eruption. The oscillations are in all cases singly periodic and sinusoidal to the limits of measurement. The detection of oscillations in 14 separate eruptions of AH Her and SY Cnc enables a general study of period variations. The stars trace out characteristic loops (''banana diagrams'') in the period-intensity plane. New detections are also reported for SS Cyg, EM Cyg, and HT Cas

  10. Seasonality in ENSO-related precipitation, river discharges, soil moisture, and vegetation index in Colombia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poveda, GermáN.; Jaramillo, Alvaro; Gil, Marta MaríA.; Quiceno, Natalia; Mantilla, Ricardo I.

    2001-08-01

    An analysis of hydrologic variability in Colombia shows different seasonal effects associated with El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. Spectral and cross-correlation analyses are developed between climatic indices of the tropical Pacific Ocean and the annual cycle of Colombia's hydrology: precipitation, river flows, soil moisture, and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). Our findings indicate stronger anomalies during December-February and weaker during March-May. The effects of ENSO are stronger for streamflow than for precipitation, owing to concomitant effects on soil moisture and evapotranspiration. We studied time variability of 10-day average volumetric soil moisture, collected at the tropical Andes of central Colombia at depths of 20 and 40 cm, in coffee growing areas characterized by shading vegetation ("shaded coffee"), forest, and sunlit coffee. The annual and interannual variability of soil moisture are highly intertwined for the period 1997-1999, during strong El Niño and La Niña events. Soil moisture exhibited greater negative anomalies during 1997-1998 El Niño, being strongest during the two dry seasons that normally occur in central Colombia. Soil moisture deficits were more drastic at zones covered by sunlit coffee than at those covered by forest and shaded coffee. Soil moisture responds to wetter than normal precipitation conditions during La Niña 1998-1999, reaching maximum levels throughout that period. The probability density function of soil moisture records is highly skewed and exhibits different kinds of multimodality depending upon land cover type. NDVI exhibits strong negative anomalies throughout the year during El Niños, in particular during September-November (year 0) and June-August (year 0). The strong negative relation between NDVI and El Niño has enormous implications for carbon, water, and energy budgets over the region, including the tropical Andes and Amazon River basin.

  11. Relationship between the precipitation variability in Montenegro and the Mediterranean oscillation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Burić Dragan

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This study investigates the influence of atmospheric circulation in the Mediterranean region on the precipitation in Montenegro. Nine precipitation parameters have been used in the analysis and the relationship has been investigated by the Mediterranean and West Mediterranean Oscillation change index (MO and WeMO. According to a 60 - year observed period (1951-2010, the research results show that nothing characteristic happens with seasonal and annual precipitation sums because the trend is mainly insignificant. However, precipitation extremes are getting more extreme, which corresponds with a general idea of global warming. Negative consequences of daily intensity increase and frequency of precipitation days above fixed and percentile thresholds have been recorded recently in the form of torrents, floods, intensive erosive processes, etc., but it should be pointed out that human factor is partly a cause of such events. The estimate of the influence of teleconnection patterns primarily related to the Mediterranean Basin has shown that their variability affects the observed precipitation parameters on the territory of Montenegro regarding both seasonal and annual sums and frequency and intensity of extreme events shown by climate indices.

  12. Pilot-multiplexed continuous-variable quantum key distribution with a real local oscillator

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Tao; Huang, Peng; Zhou, Yingming; Liu, Weiqi; Zeng, Guihua

    2018-01-01

    We propose a pilot-multiplexed continuous-variable quantum key distribution (CVQKD) scheme based on a local local oscillator (LLO). Our scheme utilizes time-multiplexing and polarization-multiplexing techniques to dramatically isolate the quantum signal from the pilot, employs two heterodyne detectors to separately detect the signal and the pilot, and adopts a phase compensation method to almost eliminate the multifrequency phase jitter. In order to analyze the performance of our scheme, a general LLO noise model is constructed. Besides the phase noise and the modulation noise, the photon-leakage noise from the reference path and the quantization noise due to the analog-to-digital converter (ADC) are also considered, which are first analyzed in the LLO regime. Under such general noise model, our scheme has a higher key rate and longer secure distance compared with the preexisting LLO schemes. Moreover, we also conduct an experiment to verify our pilot-multiplexed scheme. Results show that it maintains a low level of the phase noise and is expected to obtain a 554-Kbps secure key rate within a 15-km distance under the finite-size effect.

  13. Impact of 1990-'95 ENSO/WEPO event on Indian monsoon rainfall

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Gopinathan, C.K.

    The negative phase of the 1990-'95 El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the associated Warming of the Equatorial Pacific Ocean (WEPO) was the longest observed in the 113 years of its recorded history, compared to its normal duration of 1 to 2...

  14. The 1950-1998 warm ENSO events and regional implications to ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    1998 seasonal El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is investigated in 502 rivers gauged in 9 countries of the Southern African region. We found some evidence of possible links between available surface water resources in terms of mean annual ...

  15. Do ENSO and Coastal Development Enhance Coastal Burial of Terrestrial Carbon?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Macreadie, Peter I; Rolph, Timothy C; Boyd, Ron; Schröder-Adams, Claudia J; Skilbeck, Charles G

    2015-01-01

    Carbon cycling on the east coast of Australia has the potential to be strongly affected by El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) intensification and coastal development (industrialization and urbanization). We performed paleoreconstructions of estuarine sediments from a seagrass-dominated estuary on the east coast of Australia (Tuggerah Lake, New South Wales) to test the hypothesis that millennial-scale ENSO intensification and European settlement in Australia have increased the transfer of organic carbon from land into coastal waters. Our data show that carbon accumulation rates within coastal sediments increased significantly during periods of maximum millennial-scale ENSO intensity ("super-ENSO") and coastal development. We suggest that ENSO and coastal development destabilize and liberate terrestrial soil carbon, which, during rainfall events (e.g., La Niña), washes into estuaries and becomes trapped and buried by coastal vegetation (seagrass in this case). Indeed, periods of high carbon burial were generally characterized as having rapid sedimentation rates, higher content of fine-grained sediments, and increased content of wood and charcoal fragments. These results, though preliminary, suggest that coastal development and ENSO intensification--both of which are predicted to increase over the coming century--can enhance capture and burial of terrestrial carbon by coastal ecosystems. These findings have important relevance for current efforts to build an understanding of terrestrial-marine carbon connectivity into global carbon budgets.

  16. Oxygen isotopes in tree rings are a good proxy for Amazon precipitation and El Niño-Southern Oscillation variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brienen, Roel J. W.; Helle, Gerd; Pons, Thijs L.; Guyot, Jean-Loup; Gloor, Manuel

    2012-10-01

    We present a unique proxy for the reconstruction of variation in precipitation over the Amazon: oxygen isotope ratios in annual rings in tropical cedar (Cedrela odorata). A century-long record from northern Bolivia shows that tree rings preserve the signal of oxygen isotopes in precipitation during the wet season, with weaker influences of temperature and vapor pressure. Tree ring δ18O correlates strongly with δ18O in precipitation from distant stations in the center and west of the basin, and with Andean ice core δ18O showing that the signal is coherent over large areas. The signal correlates most strongly with basin-wide precipitation and Amazon river discharge. We attribute the strength of this (negative) correlation mainly to the cumulative rainout processes of oxygen isotopes (Rayleigh distillation) in air parcels during westward transport across the basin. We further find a clear signature of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the record, with strong ENSO influences over recent decades, but weaker influence from 1925 to 1975 indicating decadal scale variation in the controls on the hydrological cycle. The record exhibits a significant increase in δ18O over the 20th century consistent with increases in Andean δ18O ice core and lake records, which we tentatively attribute to increased water vapor transport into the basin. Taking these data together, our record reveals a fresh path to diagnose and improve our understanding of variation and trends of the hydrological cycle of the world's largest river catchment.

  17. The nonstationary impact of local temperature changes and ENSO on extreme precipitation at the global scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Qiaohong; Miao, Chiyuan; Qiao, Yuanyuan; Duan, Qingyun

    2017-12-01

    The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and local temperature are important drivers of extreme precipitation. Understanding the impact of ENSO and temperature on the risk of extreme precipitation over global land will provide a foundation for risk assessment and climate-adaptive design of infrastructure in a changing climate. In this study, nonstationary generalized extreme value distributions were used to model extreme precipitation over global land for the period 1979-2015, with ENSO indicator and temperature as covariates. Risk factors were estimated to quantify the contrast between the influence of different ENSO phases and temperature. The results show that extreme precipitation is dominated by ENSO over 22% of global land and by temperature over 26% of global land. With a warming climate, the risk of high-intensity daily extreme precipitation increases at high latitudes but decreases in tropical regions. For ENSO, large parts of North America, southern South America, and southeastern and northeastern China are shown to suffer greater risk in El Niño years, with more than double the chance of intense extreme precipitation in El Niño years compared with La Niña years. Moreover, regions with more intense precipitation are more sensitive to ENSO. Global climate models were used to investigate the changing relationship between extreme precipitation and the covariates. The risk of extreme, high-intensity precipitation increases across high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere but decreases in middle and lower latitudes under a warming climate scenario, and will likely trigger increases in severe flooding and droughts across the globe. However, there is some uncertainties associated with the influence of ENSO on predictions of future extreme precipitation, with the spatial extent and risk varying among the different models.

  18. ENSO, IOD and Indian Summer Monsoon in NCEP climate forecast system

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pokhrel, Samir; Chaudhari, H.S.; Saha, Subodh K.; Dhakate, Ashish; Yadav, R.K.; Salunke, Kiran; Mahapatra, S.; Rao, Suryachandra A. [Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pashan, Pune (India)

    2012-11-15

    El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and Indian Summer Monsoon rainfall features are explored statistically and dynamically using National Centers for Environment Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System (CFSv1) freerun in relation to observations. The 100 years of freerun provides a sufficiently long homogeneous data set to find out the mean state, periodicity, coherence among these climatic events and also the influence of ENSO and IOD on the Indian monsoon. Differences in the occurrence of seasonal precipitation between the observations and CFS freerun are examined as a coupled ocean-atmosphere system. CFS simulated ENSO and IOD patterns and their associated tropical Walker and regional Hadley circulation in pure ENSO (PEN), pure IOD (PIO) and coexisting ENSO-IOD (PEI) events have some similarity to the observations. PEN composites are much closer to the observation as compared to PIO and PEI composites, which suggest a better ENSO prediction and its associated teleconnections as compared to IOD and combined phenomenon. Similar to the observation, the model simulation also show that the decrease in the Indian summer monsoon rainfall during ENSO phases is associated with a descending motion of anomalous Walker circulation and the increase in the Indian summer monsoon rainfall during IOD phase is associated with the ascending branch of anomalous regional Hadley circulation. During co-existing ENSO and IOD years, however, the fate of Indian summer monsoon is dictated by the combined influence of both of them. The shift in the anomalous descending and ascending branches of the Walker and Hadley circulation may be somewhat attributed to the cold (warm) bias over eastern (western) equatorial Indian Ocean basin, respectively in the model. This study will be useful for identifying some of the limitations of the CFS model and consequently it will be helpful in improving the model to unravel the realistic coupled ocean-atmosphere interactions

  19. The ENSO-pandemic influenza connection: coincident or causal?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shaman, J. L.; Lipsitch, M.

    2011-12-01

    The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a coupled ocean-atmosphere system in the tropical Pacific, which affects weather conditions, including temperatures, precipitation, winds and storm activity, across the planet. ENSO has two extreme phases marked by either warmer (El Niño) or cooler (La Niña) than average sea surface temperatures in the central equatorial Pacific. We find that the 4 most recent human influenza pandemics (1918, 1957, 1968, 2009), all of which were first identified in boreal spring or summer, were preceded by La Niña conditions in the equatorial Pacific. Changes in ENSO have been shown to alter the migration, stopover time, fitness and interspecies mixing of migratory birds, and consequently likely affect their mixing with domestic animals. We hypothesize that La Niña conditions bring divergent influenza subtypes together in some parts of the world and favor the reassortment of influenza through simultaneous multiple infection of individual hosts and the generation of novel pandemic strains. We propose approaches to test this hypothesis using influenza population genetics, virus prevalence in various host species, and avian migration patterns.

  20. On the unstable ENSO-Western North Pacific Monsoon relation during the 20th Century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vega Martín, Inmaculada; Gallego Puyol, David; Ribera Rodriguez, Pedro; Gómez Delgado, Francisco de Paula; Peña-Ortiz, Cristina

    2017-04-01

    The concept of the Western North Pacific Summer Monsoon (WNPSM) appeared for the first time in 1987. Unlike the Indian Summer Monsoon and the East Asian summer monsoon, the WNPSM is an oceanic monsoon driven essentially by the meridional gradient of sea surface temperature. Its circulation is characterized by a northwest-southeast oriented monsoon trough with intense precipitation and low-level southwesterlies and upper-tropospheric easterlies in the region [100°-130° E, 5°-15°N]. Although this monsoon is mainly oceanic, it modulates the precipitation of densely populated areas such as the Philippines. To date, the WNPSM has been quantified by the so-called Western North Pacific Monsoon Index (WNPMI), an index based on wind anomalies over large domains of the Western Pacific. The requirement of continuous observed wind over remote oceanic areas to compute the WNPMI has limited its availability to the 1949-2014 period. In this work we have extended the index by almost 100 years by using historical observations of wind direction taken aboard ships. Our Western North Pacific Directional Index (WNPDI), is defined as the sum of the persistence of the low-level westerly winds in [5°-15°N, 100°-130°E] and easterly winds in [20°-30°N, 110°-140°E]. The new WNPDI index is highly correlated to the existent WNPMI for the concurrent period (1948-2014). (r=+0.88, p<0.01), indicating that the new approach based in the use of wind direction alone (a variable that can be considered instrumental even before the 20th Century), captures most of the monsoonal signal. Previous studies found that, during the second part of the 20th Century the WNPSM exhibited two basic characteristics: first a large interannual variability and second, a significant relation between the WNPSM and the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in a way in which a strong (weak) WNPSM tends to occur during the El Niño (La Niña) developing year or/and La Niña (El Niño) decaying year. The analysis of

  1. The Spatial and Temporal Variability of the North Atlantic Oscillation Recorded in Ice Core Major Ion Time Series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wawrzeniak, T. L.; Wake, C. P.; Fischer, H.; Fisher, D. A.; Schwikowski, M.

    2006-05-01

    The North Atlantic Oscillation represents a significant mode of atmospheric variability for the Arctic and sub- Artic climate system. Developing a longer-term record of the spatial and temporal variability of the NAO could improve our understanding of natural climate variability in the region. Previous work has shown a significant relationship between Greenland ice core records and the NAO. Here, we have compared sea-salt and dust records from nine ice cores around the Arctic region to sea level pressure and NAO indices to evaluate the extent to which these ice cores can be used to reconstruct the NAO.

  2. Abrupt millennial variability and interdecadal-interstadial oscillations in a global coupled model: sensitivity to the background climate state

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Arzel, Olivier [The University of New South Wales, Climate Change Research Centre (CCRC), Sydney (Australia); Universite de Bretagne Occidentale, Laboratoire de Physique des Oceans (LPO), Brest (France); England, Matthew H. [The University of New South Wales, Climate Change Research Centre (CCRC), Sydney (Australia); Verdiere, Alain Colin de; Huck, Thierry [Universite de Bretagne Occidentale, Laboratoire de Physique des Oceans (LPO), Brest (France)

    2012-07-15

    The origin and bifurcation structure of abrupt millennial-scale climate transitions under steady external solar forcing and in the absence of atmospheric synoptic variability is studied by means of a global coupled model of intermediate complexity. We show that the origin of Dansgaard-Oeschger type oscillations in the model is caused by the weaker northward oceanic heat transport in the Atlantic basin. This is in agreement with previous studies realized with much simpler models, based on highly idealized geometries and simplified physics. The existence of abrupt millennial-scale climate transitions during glacial times can therefore be interpreted as a consequence of the weakening of the negative temperature-advection feedback. This is confirmed through a series of numerical experiments designed to explore the sensitivity of the bifurcation structure of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation to increased atmospheric CO{sub 2} levels under glacial boundary conditions. Contrasting with the cold, stadial, phases of millennial oscillations, we also show the emergence of strong interdecadal variability in the North Atlantic sector during warm interstadials. The instability driving these interdecadal-interstadial oscillations is shown to be identical to that found in ocean-only models forced by fixed surface buoyancy fluxes, that is, a large-scale baroclinic instability developing in the vicinity of the western boundary current in the North Atlantic. Comparisons with modern observations further suggest a physical mechanism similar to that driving the 30-40 years time scale associated with the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation. (orig.)

  3. Fourier transform methods for calculating action variables and semiclassical eigenvalues for coupled oscillator systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eaker, C.W.; Schatz, G.C.; De Leon, N.; Heller, E.J.

    1984-01-01

    Two methods for calculating the good action variables and semiclassical eigenvalues for coupled oscillator systems are presented, both of which relate the actions to the coefficients appearing in the Fourier representation of the normal coordinates and momenta. The two methods differ in that one is based on the exact expression for the actions together with the EBK semiclassical quantization condition while the other is derived from the Sorbie--Handy (SH) approximation to the actions. However, they are also very similar in that the actions in both methods are related to the same set of Fourier coefficients and both require determining the perturbed frequencies in calculating actions. These frequencies are also determined from the Fourier representations, which means that the actions in both methods are determined from information entirely contained in the Fourier expansion of the coordinates and momenta. We show how these expansions can very conveniently be obtained from fast Fourier transform (FFT) methods and that numerical filtering methods can be used to remove spurious Fourier components associated with the finite trajectory integration duration. In the case of the SH based method, we find that the use of filtering enables us to relax the usual periodicity requirement on the calculated trajectory. Application to two standard Henon--Heiles models is considered and both are shown to give semiclassical eigenvalues in good agreement with previous calculations for nondegenerate and 1:1 resonant systems. In comparing the two methods, we find that although the exact method is quite general in its ability to be used for systems exhibiting complex resonant behavior, it converges more slowly with increasing trajectory integration duration and is more sensitive to the algorithm for choosing perturbed frequencies than the SH based method

  4. Changes of extreme precipitation and nonlinear influence of climate variables over monsoon region in China

    KAUST Repository

    Gao, Tao

    2017-07-19

    The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) are well understood to be major drivers for the variability of precipitation extremes over monsoon regions in China (MRC). However, research on monsoon extremes in China and their associations with climate variables is limited. In this study, we examine the space-time variations of extreme precipitation across the MRC, and assess the time-varying influences of the climate drivers using Bayesian dynamic linear regression and their combined nonlinear effects through fitting generalized additive models. Results suggest that the central-east and south China is dominated by less frequent but more intense precipitation. Extreme rainfalls show significant positive trends, coupled with a significant decline of dry spells, indicating an increasing chance of occurrence of flood-induced disasters in the MRC during 1960–2014. Majority of the regional indices display some abrupt shifts during the 1990s. The influences of climate variables on monsoon extremes exhibit distinct interannual or interdecadal variations. IOD, ENSO and AMO have strong impacts on monsoon and extreme precipitation, especially during the 1990s, which is generally consistent with the abrupt shifts in precipitation regimes around this period. Moreover, ENSO mainly affects moderate rainfalls and dry spells, while IOD has a more significant impact on precipitation extremes. These findings could be helpful for improving the forecasting of monsoon extremes in China and the evaluations of climate models.

  5. Marine lake ecosystem dynamics illustrate ENSO variation in the tropical western Pacific

    OpenAIRE

    Martin, Laura E; Dawson, Michael N; Bell, Lori J; Colin, Patrick L

    2005-01-01

    Understanding El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and its biological consequences is hindered by a lack of high-resolution, long-term data from the tropical western Pacific. We describe a preliminary, 6 year dataset that shows tightly coupled ENSO-related bio-physical dynamics in a seawater lake in Palau, Micronesia. The lake is more strongly stratified during La Niña than El Niño conditions, temperature anomalies in the lake co-vary strongly with the Niño 3.4 climate index, and the abundance...

  6. Water table depth fluctuations during ENSO phenomenon on different tropical peat swamp forest land covers in Katingan, Indonesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rossita, A.; Witono, A.; Darusman, T.; Lestari, D. P.; Risdiyanto, I.

    2018-03-01

    As it is the main role to maintain hydrological function, peatland has been a limelight since drainage construction for agriculture evolved. Drainage construction will decrease water table depth (WTD) and result in CO2 emission release to the atmosphere. Regardless of human intervention, WTD fluctuations can be affected by seasonal climate and climate variability, foremost El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). This study aims to determine the correlation between rainfall in Katingan and ENSO index, analyze the pattern of WTD fluctuation of open area and forest area in 2015 (during very strong El Niño) and 2016 (during weak La Niña), calculate the WTD trendline slope during the dry season, and rainfall and WTD correlation. The result showed that open area has a sharper slope of decreasing or increasing WTD when entering the dry, compared to the forest area. Also, it is found that very strong El Niño in 2015 generated a pattern of more extreme decreasing WTD during the dry season than weak La Niña in 2016.

  7. Impacts of the ENSO Modoki and other Tropical Indo-Pacific Climate-Drivers on African Rainfall.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Preethi, B; Sabin, T P; Adedoyin, J A; Ashok, K

    2015-11-16

    The study diagnoses the relative impacts of the four known tropical Indo-Pacific drivers, namely, El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), ENSO Modoki, Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), and Indian Ocean Basin-wide mode (IOBM) on African seasonal rainfall variability. The canonical El Niño and El Niño Modoki are in general associated with anomalous reduction (enhancement) of rainfall in southern (northern) hemispheric regions during March-May season. However, both the El Niño flavours anomalously reduce the northern hemispheric rainfall during June-September. Interestingly, during boreal spring and summer, in many regions, the Indian Ocean drivers have influences opposite to those from tropical Pacific drivers. On the other hand, during the October-December season, the canonical El Niño and/or positive IOD are associated with an anomalous enhancement of rainfall in the Eastern Africa, while the El Niño Modoki events are associated with an opposite impact. In addition to the Walker circulation changes, the Indo-Pacific drivers influence the African rainfall through modulating jet streams. During boreal summer, the El Niño Modoki and canonical El Niño (positive IOD) tend to weaken (strengthen) the tropical easterly jet, and result in strengthening (weakening) and southward shift of African easterly jet. This anomalously reduces (enhances) rainfall in the tropical north, including Sahelian Africa.

  8. A change in the relationship between tropical central Pacific SST variability and the extratropical atmosphere around 1990

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yu, Jin-Yi; Kim, Seon Tae; Lu, Mong-Ming

    2012-01-01

    A newly released reanalysis dataset covering the period 1979–2009 is analyzed to show that the sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the tropical central Pacific is more closely related to the SST variability in the tropical eastern Pacific before 1990 but more closely related to sea level pressure (SLP) variations associated with the North Pacific Oscillation (NPO) after 1990. Only during the period after 1990 can the NPO excite large SST variability in the tropical central Pacific. Related to this change, El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) SST anomalies tend to spread from the eastern to central tropical Pacific before 1990 in a pattern resembling that associated with the Eastern Pacific (EP) type of ENSO, but are more closely connected to SST variability in the subtropical north Pacific after 1990 with a pattern resembling that of the Central Pacific (CP) type of ENSO. This study concludes that the increased influence of the NPO on the tropical Pacific is a likely reason for the increasing occurrence of the CP type of ENSO since 1990. An analysis of the mean atmospheric circulation during these two periods suggests that the increased NPO influence is associated with a strengthening Hadley circulation after 1990. (letter)

  9. Climate Prediction Center - The ENSO Cycle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weather Service NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS home page Climate Prediction Center Home Site Map News Web resources and services. HOME > El Niño/La Niña > The ENSO Cycle ENSO Cycle Banner Climate for Weather and Climate Prediction Climate Prediction Center 5830 University Research Court College

  10. A critical oscillation constant as a variable of time scales for half-linear dynamic equations

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Řehák, Pavel

    2010-01-01

    Roč. 60, č. 2 (2010), s. 237-256 ISSN 0139-9918 R&D Projects: GA AV ČR KJB100190701 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10190503 Keywords : dynamic equation * time scale * half-linear equation * (non)oscillation criteria * Hille-Nehari criteria * Kneser criteria * critical constant * oscillation constant * Hardy inequality Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics Impact factor: 0.316, year: 2010 http://link.springer.com/article/10.2478%2Fs12175-010-0009-7

  11. Long term changes in flooding and heavy rainfall associated with North Atlantic tropical cyclones: Roles of the North Atlantic Oscillation and El Niño-Southern Oscillation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aryal, Yog N.; Villarini, Gabriele; Zhang, Wei; Vecchi, Gabriel A.

    2018-04-01

    The aim of this study is to examine the contribution of North Atlantic tropical cyclones (TCs) to flooding and heavy rainfall across the continental United States. Analyses highlight the spatial variability in these hazards, their temporal changes in terms of frequency and magnitude, and their connection to large-scale climate, in particular to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). We use long-term stream and rain gage measurements, and our analyses are based on annual maxima (AMs) and peaks-over-threshold (POTs). TCs contribute to ∼20-30% of AMs and POTs over Florida and coastal areas of the eastern United States, and the contribution decreases as we move inland. We do not detect statistically significant trends in the magnitude or frequency of TC floods. Regarding the role of climate, NAO and ENSO do not play a large role in controlling the frequency and magnitude of TC flooding. The connection between heavy rainfall and TCs is comparable to what observed in terms of flooding. Unlike flooding, NAO plays a significant role in TC-related extreme rainfall along the U.S. East Coast, while ENSO is most strongly linked to the TC precipitation in Texas.

  12. Variation characteristics and influences of climate factors on aridity index and its association with AO and ENSO in northern China from 1961 to 2012

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Kexin; Qian, Xiaoqing; Liu, Puxing; Xu, Yihong; Cao, Liguo; Hao, Yongpei; Dai, Shengpei

    2017-10-01

    Analyses of the variation characteristics for aridity index (AI) can further enhance the understanding of climate change and have effect on hydrology and agriculture. In this paper, based on the data of 283 standard meteorological stations, the temporal-spatial variations and the influences of climate factors on AI were investigated and the relationship between AI and two climate indices (the Arctic Oscillation (AO); El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)) were also assessed in northern China (NC) during the period from 1961 to 2012. The results revealed that the annual mean AI decreased at the rate of -0.031 per decade in the past 52 years and the trend was statistically significant at the 0.01 level. The Mann-Kendall (M-K) test presented that the percentages of stations with positive trends and negative trends for AI were 10 and 81.9 % (22.6 % statistically significant), respectively. Spatially, in the western part of 100° E, the extremely dry area declined and the climate tended to become wet obviously. In the eastern part of 100° E, dry area moved toward the east and the south, which resulted in the enhancement of semiarid area and the shrinkage of subhumid area. The contributions of sunshine duration and precipitation to the decline of AI are more than those of other meteorological variables in NC. Moreover, the average temperature has risen significantly and AI decreased in NC, which indicated the existence of "paradox." Relationship between climate indices (AO and ENSO) and AI demonstrated that the influence of ENSO on AI overweight the AO on AI in NC.

  13. Pacific centre of the Arctic Oscillation: product of high local variability rather than teleconnectivity

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Huth, Radan

    58A, č. 5 (2006), s. 601-604 ISSN 0280-6495 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA205/05/2282 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z30420517 Keywords : Arctic Oscillation * Pacific centre * principal component analysis Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 2.245, year: 2006

  14. Southern Hemisphere Extratropical Cyclones and their Relationship with ENSO in springtime

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reboita, M. S.; Ambrizzi, T.; Da Rocha, R.

    2013-05-01

    Extratropical cyclones occurrence is associated with the teleconnection mechanisms that produce climate variability. Among these mechanisms we have El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Some works have indicated that during the ENSO positive phase there are more cyclogenetic conditions in some parts of the globe as the southwest of South Atlantic Ocean. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to verify if the extratropical cyclones number and location are altered in the different ENSO phases in the austral spring over the Southern Hemisphere (SH). The Melbourne University automatic tracking scheme was used to determine the cyclone climatology from 1980 to 2012. All cyclones that appear with lifetime higher or equal to 24 hours in the sea level pressure data from National Centers for Environment Prediction reanalysis I were included in the climatology. El Niño (EN), La Niña (LN) and Neutral (N) years were identified through the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) from Climate Prediction Center/NOAA. The average number of cyclones in the spring over the SH is similar in the EN (200), N (184) and LN (197) episodes. By latitude bands, during EN episodes the cyclones occurrence reduces in 16% between 70-60 degrees and increases in ~15% between 80-70 and 50-40 degrees. On the other hand, during the LN episodes, the cyclones are 17% more frequent in 50-60 degrees and 22% less frequent in 30-20 degrees. One more detailed analysis of the cyclones trajectory density (that is a statistic product of the tracking algorithm) shows that in the South Atlantic Ocean, near the southeast of South America, the number of cyclones in EN years is higher than in the neutral period and lower than in the LN years. In the Indian Ocean, the EN year is characterized by a cyclones reduction in the west and east sector, near the continents. In the Pacific Ocean, the region southward the New Zealand presents more cyclones occurrence in EN years.

  15. ENSO surface shortwave radiation forcing over the tropical Pacific

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. G. Pavlakis

    2008-09-01

    Full Text Available We have studied the spatial and temporal variation of the downward shortwave radiation (DSR at the surface of the Earth during ENSO events for a 21-year period over the tropical and subtropical Pacific Ocean (40° S–40° N, 90° E–75° W. The fluxes were computed using a deterministic model for atmospheric radiation transfer, along with satellite data from the ISCCP-D2 database, reanalysis data from NCEP/NCAR for the key atmospheric and surface input parameters, and aerosol parameters from GADS (acronyms explained in main text. A clear anti-correlation was found between the downward shortwave radiation anomaly (DSR-A time-series, in the region 7° S–5° N 160° E–160° W located west of the Niño-3.4 region, and the Niño-3.4 index time-series. In this region where the highest in absolute value DSR anomalies are observed, the mean DSR anomaly values range from −45 Wm−2 during El Niño episodes to +40 Wm−2 during La Niña events. Within the Niño-3.4 region no significant DSR anomalies are observed during the cold ENSO phase in contrast to the warm ENSO phase. A high correlation was also found over the western Pacific (10° S–5° N, 120–140° E, where the mean DSR anomaly values range from +20 Wm−2 to −20 Wm−2 during El Niño and La Niña episodes, respectively. There is also convincing evidence that the time series of the mean downward shortwave radiation anomaly in the off-equatorial western Pacific region 7–15° N 150–170° E, precedes the Niño-3.4 index time-series by about 7 months and the pattern of this anomaly is indicative of ENSO operating through the mechanism of the western Pacific oscillator. Thus, the downward shortwave radiation anomaly is a complementary index to the SST anomaly for the study of ENSO events and can be used to assess whether or not El Niño or La Niña conditions prevail.

  16. Source of low frequency modulation of ENSO amplitude in a CGCM

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moon, Byung-Kwon [Chonbuk National University, Division of Science Education/Institute of Science Education, Jeonju (Korea); Yeh, Sang-Wook [Korea Ocean Research and Development Institute, Ansan (Korea); Dewitte, Boris [Laboratoire d' Etude en Geophysique et Oceanographie Spatiale, Toulouse (France); Jhun, Jong-Ghap [Seoul National University, School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Seoul (Korea); Kang, In-Sik [Seoul National University, Climate Environment System Research Center (CES), Seoul (Korea)

    2007-07-15

    We study the relationship between changes in equatorial stratification and low frequency El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) amplitude modulation in a coupled general circulation model (CGCM) that uses an anomaly coupling strategy to prevent climate drifts in the mean state. The stratification is intensified at upper levels in the western and central equatorial Pacific during periods of high ENSO amplitude. Furthermore, changes in equatorial stratification are connected with subsurface temperature anomalies originating from the central south tropical Pacific. The correlation analysis of ocean temperature anomalies against an index for the ENSO modulation supports the hypothesis of the existence of an oceanic ''tunnel'' that connects the south tropical Pacific to the equatorial wave guide. Further analysis of the wind stress projection coefficient onto the oceanic baroclinic modes suggests that the low frequency modulation of ENSO amplitude is associated with a significant contribution of higher-order modes in the western and central equatorial Pacific. In the light of these results, we suggest that, in the CGCM, change in the baroclinic mode energy distribution associated with low frequency ENSO amplitude modulation have its source in the central south tropical Pacific. (orig.)

  17. Identification of symmetric and asymmetric responses in seasonal streamflow globally to ENSO phase

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Donghoon; Ward, Philip J.; Block, Paul

    2018-04-01

    The phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has large-ranging effects on streamflow and hydrologic conditions globally. While many studies have evaluated this relationship through correlation analysis between annual streamflow and ENSO indices, an assessment of potential asymmetric relationships between ENSO and streamflow is lacking. Here, we evaluate seasonal variations in streamflow by ENSO phase to identify asymmetric (AR) and symmetric (SR) spatial pattern responses globally and further corroborate with local precipitation and hydrological condition. The AR and SR patterns between seasonal precipitation and streamflow are identified at many locations for the first time. Our results identify strong SR patterns in particular regions including northwestern and southern US, northeastern and southeastern South America, northeastern and southern Africa, southwestern Europe, and central-south Russia. The seasonally lagged anomalous streamflow patterns are also identified and attributed to snowmelt, soil moisture, and/or cumulative hydrological processes across river basins. These findings may be useful in water resources management and natural hazards planning by better characterizing the propensity of flood or drought conditions by ENSO phase.

  18. Influence of El Niño Southern Oscillation on global hydropower production

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ng, Jia Yi; Turner, Sean; Galelli, Stefano

    2016-04-01

    Hydropower contributes significantly to meeting the world's energy demand, accounting for at least 16% of total electrical output. Its role as a mature and cost competitive renewable energy source is expected to become increasingly important as the world transits to a low-carbon economy. A key component of hydropower production is runoff, which is highly dependent on precipitation and other climate variables. As such, it becomes critical to understand how the drivers of climate variability impact hydropower production. One globally-important driver is the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). While it is known that ENSO influences hydrological processes, the potential value of its associated teleconnection in design related tasks has yet to be explored at the global scale. Our work seeks to characterize the impact of ENSO on global hydropower production so as to quantify the potential for increased production brought about by incorporating climate information within reservoir operating models. We study over 1,500 hydropower reservoirs - representing more than half the world's hydropower capacity. A historical monthly reservoir inflow time series is assigned to each reservoir from a 0.5 degree gridded global runoff dataset. Reservoir operating rules are designed using stochastic dynamic programming, and storage dynamics are simulated to assess performance under the climate conditions of the 20th century. Results show that hydropower reservoirs in the United States, Brazil, Argentina, Australia, and Eastern China are strongly influenced by ENSO episodes. Statistically significant lag correlations between ENSO indicators and hydropower production demonstrate predictive skill with lead times up to several months. Our work highlights the potential for using these indicators to increase the contribution of existing hydropower plants to global energy supplies.

  19. Decadal variability of drought conditions over the southern part of Europe based on Principal Oscillation Pattern Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ionita-Scholz, Monica; Tallaksen, Lena M.; Scholz, Patrick

    2017-04-01

    This study introduces a novel method of estimating the decay time, mean period and forcing statistics of drought conditions over large spatial domains, demonstrated here for southern part of Europe (10°E - 40°E, 35°N - 50°N). It uses a two-dimensional stochastically forced damped linear oscillator model with the model parameters estimated from a Principal Oscillation Pattern (POP) analysis and associated observed power spectra. POP is a diagnostic technique that aims to derive the space-time characteristics of a data set objectively. This analysis is performed on an extended observational time series of 114 years (1902 - 2015) of the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index for an accumulation period of 12 months (SPEI12), based on the Climate Research Unit (CRU TS v. 3.24) data set. The POP analysis reveals four exceptionally stable modes of variability, which together explain more than 62% of the total explained variance. The most stable POP mode, which explains 16.3% of the total explained variance, is characterized by a period of oscillation of 14 years and a decay time of 31 years. The real part of POP1 is characterized by a monopole-like structure with the highest loadings over Portugal, western part of Spain and Turkey. The second stable mode, which explains 15.9% of the total explained variance, is characterized by a period of oscillation of 20 years and a decay time of 26.4 years. The spatial structure of the real part of POP2 has a dipole-like structure with the highest positive loadings over France, southern Germany and Romania and negative loadings over southern part of Spain. The third POP mode, in terms of stability, explains 14.0% of the total variance and is characterized by a period of oscillation of 33 years and a decay time of 43.5 years. The real part of POP3 is characterized by negative loadings over the eastern part of Europe and positive loadings over Turkey. The fourth stable POP mode, explaining 15.5% of the total variance

  20. Variability of North Sea pH and CO2 in response to North Atlantic Oscillation forcing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Salt, Lesley A.; Thomas, Helmuth; Prowe, Friederike

    2013-01-01

    [1] High biological activity causes a distinct seasonality of surface water pH in the North Sea, which is a strong sink for atmospheric CO2 via an effective shelf pump. The intimate connection between the North Sea and the North Atlantic Ocean suggests that the variability of the CO2 system...... of the North Atlantic Ocean may, in part, be responsible for the observed variability of pH and CO2 in the North Sea. In this work, we demonstrate the role of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the dominant climate mode for the North Atlantic, in governing this variability. Based on three extensive...... observational records covering the relevant levels of the NAO index, we provide evidence that the North Sea pH and CO2 system strongly responds to external and internal expressions of the NAO. Under positive NAO, the higher rates of inflow of water from the North Atlantic Ocean and the Baltic outflow lead...

  1. Daily modes of South Asian summer monsoon variability in the NCEP climate forecast system

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Achuthavarier, Deepthi; Krishnamurthy, V. [George Mason University, Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic and Earth Sciences, Fairfax, VA (United States); Institute of Global Environment and Society, Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, Calverton, MD (United States)

    2011-05-15

    The leading modes of daily variability of the Indian summer monsoon in the climate forecast system (CFS), a coupled general circulation model, of the National Centers for Environmental Predictions (NCEP) are examined. The space-time structures of the daily modes are obtained by applying multi-channel singular spectrum analysis (MSSA) on the daily anomalies of rainfall. Relations of the daily modes to intraseasonal and interannual variability of the monsoon are investigated. The CFS has three intraseasonal oscillations with periods around 106, 57 and 30 days with a combined variance of 7%. The 106-day mode has spatial structure and propagation features similar to the northeastward propagating 45-day mode in the observations except for its longer period. The 57-day mode, despite being in the same time scale as of the observations has poor eastward propagation. The 30-day mode is northwestward propagating and is similar to its observational counterpart. The 106-day mode is specific to the model and should not be mistaken for a new scale of variability in observations. The dominant interannual signal is related to El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and, unlike in the observations, has maximum variance in the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean. Although the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) mode was not obtained as a separate mode in the rainfall, the ENSO signal has good correlations with the dipole variability, which, therefore, indicates the dominance of ENSO in the model. The interannual variability is largely determined by the ENSO signal over the regions where it has maximum variance. The interannual variability of the intraseasonal oscillations is smaller in comparison. (orig.)

  2. Tropical cyclone genesis in the Southern Hemisphere and its relationship with the ENSO

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kuleshov, Y.; Qi, L. [Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, VIC (Australia). National Climate Centre; Chane Ming, F.; Chouaibou, I.; Hoareau, C. [UMR CNRS-Meteo-France-Univ. de la Reunion, La Reunion (France). Lab. de l' Atmosphere et des Cyclones; Roux, F. [Paul Sabatier Univ., CNRS, Toulouse (France). Lab. d' Aerologie

    2009-07-01

    Tropical cyclogenesis climatology over the South Indian and South Pacific Oceans has been developed using a new tropical cyclone (TC) archive for the Southern Hemisphere, and changes in geographical distribution of areas favourable for TC genesis related to changes in the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phases have been investigated. To explain these changes, large-scale environmental variables which influence TC genesis and development such as sea surface temperatures (SSTs), relative humidity in mid-troposphere, vertical wind shear and lower tropospheric vorticity have been examined. In the South Indian Ocean, reduction of TC genesis in the western part of the basin and its increase in the eastern part as well as displacement of the area favourable for TC genesis further away from the equator during La Nina events compared to El Nino events can be explained by changes in geographical distribution of relative humidity and vorticity across the basin as primary contributors; positive anomalies of SSTs observed during La Nina seasons in the eastern part of the basin additionally contribute to enhanced cyclogenesis near the Western Australia. In the South Pacific Ocean, changes in geographical distribution of relative humidity and vorticity appear to be the key large-scale environmental factors responsible for enhanced TC genesis in the eastern (western) part of the basin as well as for the northeast (southwest) shift of points of cyclogenesis during El Nino (La Nina) events, with vertical wind shear and SSTs as additional contributing large-scale environmental variables. (orig.)

  3. Indo-Pacific ENSO modes in a double-basin Zebiak-Cane model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wieners, Claudia; de Ruijter, Will; Dijkstra, Henk

    2016-04-01

    We study Indo-Pacific interactions on ENSO timescales in a double-basin version of the Zebiak-Cane ENSO model, employing both time integrations and bifurcation analysis (continuation methods). The model contains two oceans (the Indian and Pacific Ocean) separated by a meridional wall. Interaction between the basins is possible via the atmosphere overlaying both basins. We focus on the effect of the Indian Ocean (both its mean state and its variability) on ENSO stability. In addition, inspired by analysis of observational data (Wieners et al, Coherent tropical Indo-Pacific interannual climate variability, in review), we investigate the effect of state-dependent atmospheric noise. Preliminary results include the following: 1) The background state of the Indian Ocean stabilises the Pacific ENSO (i.e. the Hopf bifurcation is shifted to higher values of the SST-atmosphere coupling), 2) the West Pacific cooling (warming) co-occurring with El Niño (La Niña) is essential to simulate the phase relations between Pacific and Indian SST anomalies, 3) a non-linear atmosphere is needed to simulate the effect of the Indian Ocean variability onto the Pacific ENSO that is suggested by observations.

  4. Development of the Second-Generation Oscillating Surge Wave Energy Converter with Variable Geometry: Preprint

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tom, Nathan M [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Yu, Yi-Hsiang [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Thresher, Robert W [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Kelly, Michael [South Dakota School of Mines

    2017-07-25

    This study investigates the effect of design changes on the hydrodynamics of a novel oscillating surge wave energy converter being developed at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. The design utilizes controllable geometry features to shed structural loads while maintaining a rated power over a greater number of sea states. The second-generation design will seek to provide a more refined control of performance because the first-generation design demonstrated performance reductions considered too large for smooth power output. Performance is evaluated using frequency domain analysis with consideration of a nonideal power-take-off system, with respect to power absorption, foundation loads, and power-take-off torque.

  5. Synchronization states and multistability in a ring of periodic oscillators: Experimentally variable coupling delays

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Caitlin R. S.; Sorrentino, Francesco; Murphy, Thomas E.; Roy, Rajarshi

    2013-12-01

    We experimentally study the complex dynamics of a unidirectionally coupled ring of four identical optoelectronic oscillators. The coupling between these systems is time-delayed in the experiment and can be varied over a wide range of delays. We observe that as the coupling delay is varied, the system may show different synchronization states, including complete isochronal synchrony, cluster synchrony, and two splay-phase states. We analyze the stability of these solutions through a master stability function approach, which we show can be effectively applied to all the different states observed in the experiment. Our analysis supports the experimentally observed multistability in the system.

  6. Impacts of a Pinatubo-size volcanic eruption on ENSO

    KAUST Repository

    Predybaylo, Evgeniya

    2017-01-16

    Observations and model simulations of the climate responses to strong explosive low-latitude volcanic eruptions suggest a significant increase in the likelihood of El Niño during the eruption and posteruption years, though model results have been inconclusive and have varied in magnitude and even sign. In this study, we test how this spread of responses depends on the initial phase of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the eruption year and on the eruption\\'s seasonal timing. We employ the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory CM2.1 global coupled general circulation model to investigate the impact of the Pinatubo 1991 eruption, assuming that in 1991 ENSO would otherwise be in central or eastern Pacific El Niño, La Niña, or neutral phases. We obtain statistically significant El Niño responses in a year after the eruption for all cases except La Niña, which shows no response in the eastern equatorial Pacific. The eruption has a weaker impact on eastern Pacific El Niños than on central Pacific El Niños. We find that the ocean dynamical thermostat and (to a lesser extent) wind changes due to land-ocean temperature gradients are the main feedbacks affecting El Niño development after the eruption. The El Niño responses to eruptions occurring in summer are more pronounced than for winter and spring eruptions. That the climate response depends on eruption season and initial ENSO phase may help to reconcile apparent inconsistencies among previous studies.

  7. Ice core evidence for secular variability and 200-year dipolar oscillations in atmospheric circulation over East Antarctica during the Holocene

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Delmonte, B. [Laboratoire de Glaciologie et de Geophysique de l' Environnement (LGGE-CNRS), Saint Martin d' Heres (France); Department of Environmental Sciences, University Milano-Bicocca (Italy); Department of Geological Sciences, University of Siena (Italy); Petit, J.R.; Krinner, G. [Laboratoire de Glaciologie et de Geophysique de l' Environnement (LGGE-CNRS), Saint Martin d' Heres (France); Maggi, V. [Department of Environmental Sciences, University Milano-Bicocca (Italy); Jouzel, J. [Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l' Environnement, UMR CEA-CNRS, Saclay (France); Udisti, R. [Chemistry Department, University of Florence (Italy)

    2005-05-01

    Two Holocene ice core records from East Antarctica (Vostok and EPICA-Dome C) were analysed for dust concentration and size distribution at a temporal resolution of 1 sample per {proportional_to}50 years. A series of volcanic markers randomly distributed over the common part of the ice cores (from 9.8 to 3.5 kyear BP) ensures accurate relative dating ({+-}33 years). Dust-size records from the two sites display oscillations structured in cycles with sub-millennial and secular scale frequencies that are apparently asynchronous. The power spectra of the composite sum ({sigma}) of the two dust-size records display spectral energy mostly for 150- to 500-year periodicities. On the other hand, the 200-year band is common to both records and the 200 year components of the two sites are out-of-phase (100-year lead or lag) over {proportional_to}5.5 kyear, a phenomenon also reflected by a significant (>99% conf. lev.) band in the power spectra of the composite difference ({delta}) of the two size records. During long-range transport, mineral dust originating from the Southern Hemisphere continents is graded to a variable extent depending on the altitude and duration of atmospheric transport. Relatively coarse dust is associated with air mass penetration from the middle-lower troposphere and conversely relatively fine dust with upper troposphere air masses or the influence of subsidence over the Antarctic plateau, a hypothesis already proposed for the changes that occurred during the Last Glacial Maximum to Holocene transition (Delmonte et al. 2004b). Moreover, we assume that the overall fluctuation of air mass advection over Antarctica depends on the meridional pressure gradient with respect to low latitudes, i.e. the Antarctic Oscillation (AAO). We therefore suggest a regional variability in atmospheric circulation over East Antarctica. The 150-500 year power spectrum of the composite ({sigma}) parameter represents the long term variability of the AAO, imprinted by secular

  8. Propagation and forcing of high-frequency sea level variability along the west coast of South America

    Science.gov (United States)

    del Pilar Cornejo-Rodriguez, Maria; Enfield, David B.

    1987-12-01

    Tide and wind data from coastal and island stations from Buenaventura, Colombia (4°N), to Callao, Peru (12°S), have been analyzed for the 1979-1984 time period to determine the propagation and forcing characteristics of coastal sea level variability at periods of days to weeks, as well as how they vary either with season or between the 1982-1983 El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) period and non-ENSO years. During four non-ENSO years, the ensemble averaged cross spectra between coastal sea level height (SLH) and local winds show weak evidence of local forcing during the whole year without significant differences between the austral summer and winter seasons, other than a greater energy in the wind fluctuations at Talara during summer. Cross spectra between SLH series from neighboring stations show evidence of poleward phase propagation during winter seasons at speeds of about 2.0 m s-1 between La Libertad and Talara at periods of a week or more, and about 2.7 m s-1 between Talara and Callao at periods of 5-11 days, but no propagation is found during summers. During the 1982-1983 ENSO there is a large increase in SLH energy at most frequencies at all coastal stations, but especially in the 8-to-11-day band, where energies are enhanced by as much as an order of magnitude above non-ENSO levels. The cross spectra between adjacent SLH stations indicate a nondispersive poleward propagation of events during the 1982-1983 ENSO with phase speeds of 2.2-3.5 m s-1 from La Libertad to Talara (periods of a week or more) and 3.4-3.6 m s-1 from Talara to Callao (3.5 days or more). As with the SLH energy, the coherence and phase propagation were much stronger along the Peru coast in 1982-1983 than during non-ENSO periods, especially in the 8-to-11-day band. The one-third increase in phase speeds during the ENSO over the non-ENSO speeds is found to be consistent with the anomalous depressions of the density structure during El Niño. Comparisons between coastal SLH and the local

  9. Inter-decadal modulation of ENSO teleconnections to the Indian Ocean in a coupled model: Special emphasis on decay phase of El Niño

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chowdary, J. S.; Parekh, Anant; Gnanaseelan, C.; Sreenivas, P.

    2014-01-01

    Inter-decadal modulation of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnections to tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) is investigated in the coupled general circulation model Climate Forecast System (CFS) using a hundred year integration. The model is able to capture the periodicity of El Niño variability, which is similar to that of the observations. The maximum TIO/north Indian Ocean (NIO) SST warming (during spring following the decay phase of El Niño) associated with El Niño is well captured by the model. Detailed analysis reveals that the surface heat flux variations mainly contribute to the El Niño forced TIO SST variations both in observations and model. However, spring warming is nearly stationary throughout the model integration period, indicating poor inter-decadal El Niño teleconnections. The observations on the other hand displayed maximum SST warming with strong seasonality from epoch to epoch. The model El Niño decay delayed by more than two seasons, results in persistent TIO/NIO SST warming through the following December unlike in the observations. The ocean wave adjustments and persistent westerly wind anomalies over the equatorial Pacific are responsible for late decay of El Niño in the model. Consistent late decay of El Niño, throughout the model integration period (low variance), is mainly responsible for the poor inter-decadal ENSO teleconnections to TIO/NIO. This study deciphers that the model needs to produce El Niño decay phase variability correctly to obtain decadal-modulations in ENSO teleconnection.

  10. Oscillation Mode Variability in Evolved Compact Pulsators from Kepler Photometry. I. The Hot B Subdwarf Star KIC 3527751

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zong, Weikai; Charpinet, Stéphane; Fu, Jian-Ning; Vauclair, Gérard; Niu, Jia-Shu; Su, Jie

    2018-02-01

    We present the first results of an ensemble and systematic survey of oscillation mode variability in pulsating hot B subdwarf (sdB) and white dwarf stars observed with the original Kepler mission. The satellite provides uninterrupted high-quality photometric data with a time baseline that can reach up to 4 yr collected on pulsating stars. This is a unique opportunity to characterize long-term behaviors of oscillation modes. A mode modulation in amplitude and frequency can be independently inferred by its fine structure in the Fourier spectrum, from the sLSP, or with prewhitening methods applied to various parts of the light curve. We apply all these techniques to the sdB star KIC 3527751, a long-period-dominated hybrid pulsator. We find that all the detected modes with sufficiently large amplitudes to be thoroughly studied show amplitude and/or frequency variations. Components of three identified quintuplets around 92, 114, and 253 μHz show signatures that can be linked to nonlinear interactions according to the resonant mode coupling theory. This interpretation is further supported by the fact that many oscillation modes are found to have amplitudes and frequencies showing correlated or anticorrelated variations, a behavior that can be linked to the amplitude equation formalism, where nonlinear frequency corrections are determined by their amplitude variations. Our results suggest that oscillation modes varying with diverse patterns are a very common phenomenon in pulsating sdB stars. Close structures around main frequencies therefore need to be carefully interpreted in light of this finding to secure a robust identification of real eigenfrequencies, which is crucial for seismic modeling. The various modulation patterns uncovered should encourage further developments in the field of nonlinear stellar oscillation theory. It also raises a warning to any long-term project aiming at measuring the rate of period change of pulsations caused by stellar evolution, or at

  11. X-Ray Quasi-periodic Oscillations in the Lense–Thirring Precession Model. I. Variability of Relativistic Continuum

    Science.gov (United States)

    You, Bei; Bursa, Michal; Życki, Piotr T.

    2018-05-01

    We develop a Monte Carlo code to compute the Compton-scattered X-ray flux arising from a hot inner flow that undergoes Lense–Thirring precession. The hot flow intercepts seed photons from an outer truncated thin disk. A fraction of the Comptonized photons will illuminate the disk, and the reflected/reprocessed photons will contribute to the observed spectrum. The total spectrum, including disk thermal emission, hot flow Comptonization, and disk reflection, is modeled within the framework of general relativity, taking light bending and gravitational redshift into account. The simulations are performed in the context of the Lense–Thirring precession model for the low-frequency quasi-periodic oscillations, so the inner flow is assumed to precess, leading to periodic modulation of the emitted radiation. In this work, we concentrate on the energy-dependent X-ray variability of the model and, in particular, on the evolution of the variability during the spectral transition from hard to soft state, which is implemented by the decrease of the truncation radius of the outer disk toward the innermost stable circular orbit. In the hard state, where the Comptonizing flow is geometrically thick, the Comptonization is weakly variable with a fractional variability amplitude of ≤10% in the soft state, where the Comptonizing flow is cooled down and thus becomes geometrically thin, the fractional variability of the Comptonization is highly variable, increasing with photon energy. The fractional variability of the reflection increases with energy, and the reflection emission for low spin is counterintuitively more variable than the one for high spin.

  12. ENSO Effect on East Asian Tropical Cyclone Landfall via Changes in Tracks and Genesis in a Statistical Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yonekura, Emmi; Hall, Timothy M.

    2014-01-01

    Improvements on a statistical tropical cyclone (TC) track model in the western North Pacific Ocean are described. The goal of the model is to study the effect of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on East Asian TC landfall. The model is based on the International Best-Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) database of TC observations for 1945-2007 and employs local regression of TC formation rates and track increments on the Nino-3.4 index and seasonally varying climate parameters. The main improvements are the inclusion of ENSO dependence in the track propagation and accounting for seasonality in both genesis and tracks. A comparison of simulations of the 1945-2007 period with observations concludes that the model updates improve the skill of this model in simulating TCs. Changes in TC genesis and tracks are analyzed separately and cumulatively in simulations of stationary extreme ENSO states. ENSO effects on regional (100-km scale) landfall are attributed to changes in genesis and tracks. The effect of ENSO on genesis is predominantly a shift in genesis location from the southeast in El Nino years to the northwest in La Nina years, resulting in higher landfall rates for the East Asian coast during La Nina. The effect of ENSO on track propagation varies seasonally and spatially. In the peak activity season (July-October), there are significant changes in mean tracks with ENSO. Landfall-rate changes from genesis- and track-ENSO effects in the Philippines cancel out, while coastal segments of Vietnam, China, the Korean Peninsula, and Japan show enhanced La Nina-year increases.

  13. The multidecadal variations of the interannual relationship between the East Asian summer monsoon and ENSO in a coupled model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Bo; Huang, Gang; Hu, Kaiming; Wu, Renguang; Gong, Hainan; Wang, Pengfei; Zhao, Guijie

    2017-10-01

    This study investigates the multidecadal variations of the interannual relationship between the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in 1000-year simulation of a coupled climate model. The interannual relationship between ENSO and EASM has experienced pronounced changes throughout the 1000-year simulation. During the periods with significant ENSO-EASM relationship, the ENSO-related circulation anomalies show a Pacific-Japan (PJ)-like pattern with significant wave-activity flux propagating from the tropics to the north in lower troposphere and from the mid-latitudes to the south in upper troposphere. The resultant ENSO-related precipitation anomalies are more (less) than normal over the East Asia (western North Pacific) in the decaying summers of El Niño events. In contrast, the circulation and precipitation anomalies are weak over East Asia-western North Pacific during the periods with weak ENSO-EASM relationship. Based on the energy conversion analysis, the related anomalies achieve barotropic and baroclinic energy from the mean flow during the periods with strong ENSO-EASM relationship. On the contrary, during the low-correlation periods, the energy conversion is too weak to form the link between the tropics and mid-latitudes. The main reason for the multidecadal variations of ENSO-EASM relationship is the amplitude discrepancy of SST anomalies over the Indo-western Pacific Ocean which, in turn, leads to the intensity difference of the western North Pacific anomalous anticyclone (WPAC) and related climate anomalies.

  14. Variable speed control in wells turbine-based oscillating water column devices: optimum rotational speed

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lekube, J.; Garrido, A. J.; Garrido, I.

    2018-03-01

    The effects of climate change and global warming reveal the need to find alternative sources of clean energy. In this sense, wave energy power plants, and in particular Oscillating Water Column (OWC) devices, offer a huge potential of energy harnessing. Nevertheless, the conversion systems have not reached a commercially mature stage yet so as to compete with conventional power plants. At this point, the use of new control methods over the existing technology arises as a doable way to improve the efficiency of the system. Due to the non-uniform response that the turbine shows to the rotational speed variation, the speed control of the turbo-generator may offer a feasible solution for efficiency improvement during the energy conversion. In this context, a novel speed control approach for OWC systems is presented in this paper, demonstrating its goodness and affording promising results when particularized to the Mutriku’s wave power plant.

  15. Synoptic aspects of the central Chile rainfall variability associated with the southern oscillation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rutllant, J.; Fuenzalida, H.

    1988-07-01

    Central Chile winter rainfall patterns show a positive anomaly during the developing stage of warm events associated to the negative phase of the Southern Oscillation. On the other hand, cold events during the positive phase of the Southern Oscillation, correspond quite closely to dry conditions. However, several dry years seem to precede or follow warm events without being necessarily classified as cold events. A synoptic characterization of major winter storms during the development of the most recent warm events in 1972, 1982 and 1987, is presented. Dry winter months during cold-event years are described in terms of average 500 hPa contour anomaly fields. Significant departures from this general behavior, as storms not associated to warm events and extended dry periods during otherwise wet winters, are also analyzed. It is found that major winter storms occurring during the developing phase of warm events are related to hemispheric types of blocking and anomaly patterns where sonal wavenumber 4 and a particular phase of wavenumber 3 dominate. The blockings, located in the Bellingshausen sea area, split the westerly flow diverting the storm tracks towards central Chile. Cold years, often immediately preceding or following a warm event, bring dry conditions in the study area due to a well developed subtropical anticyclonic belt and predominantly sonal westerly flow. Superimposed on these general conditions, anomaly contour patterns in southern South America reveal opposite signs with respect to those associated to warm events. Heavy winter storms not coinciding with warm events show local types of blocking in the Antartic peninsula area, with meridionally or slightly NE-SW oriented troughs and ridges. Extended dry spells and rainfall episodes during warm-event winters seem to be connected with alternating subtropical anomalies moving east with an intraseasonal time scale, superimposed on the aforementioned anomaly pattern at high latitudes. 21 refs, 17 figs, 1 tab

  16. Das El Niño/Southern Oscillation-Phänomen / The El Niño/Southern Oscillation Phenomenon

    OpenAIRE

    Latif, Mojib

    2006-01-01

    Zusammenfassung Das El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-Phänomen ist die stärkste kurzfristige natürliche Klimaschwankung auf Zeitskalen von einigen Monaten bis zu mehreren Jahren. Obwohl ENSO seinen Ursprung im äquatorialen Pazifik hat, wirkt es sich dennoch auf das globale Klima aus. ENSO resultiert aus der Wechselwirkung zwischen Ozean und Atmosphäre und ist einige Monate im voraus vorhersagbar. Es besteht die Möglichkeit, dass der anthropogene Klimawandel die ENSO-Statistik...

  17. Analysis of El Niño-Southern Oscillation Phenomena's Effect on the Gross Domestic Product of Western Pacific Nations

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Connell, M.; Lewis, A.; Mezzafonte, D.

    2014-12-01

    El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a climatological phenomenon that occurs in the tropical Pacific Ocean which has a direct influence on the climate of western Pacific nations. This study evaluated the meteorological effects of ENSO on the economies of Indonesia and the Philippines. It was hypothesized that decreased precipitation in the western Tropical Pacific region during El Niño events causes decreases in agricultural production in the region resulting in a negative effect on a nation's Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Furthermore, during La Niña events, when precipitation increases, an increase in the nation's agricultural GDP and overall GDP is expected. Annual GDP data were obtained from the World Bank and the Bank of Indonesia for 1960-2012. Sea surface temperatures (SST) data, in the Niño 3.4 region, were obtained from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Climate Data Center. Data of the agricultural and total GDP of Indonesia and the Philippines had inconclusive correlations with ENSO signal data. By examining data between smaller time segments of the overall 1960-2012 timeframe, more conclusive results could not be discerned. Indonesia's quarterly non-oil GDP for 2000-2009 was independently correlated with ENSO providing better insight on the variables' relationship during discrete ENSO phenomena. The results provided strong correlation coefficients of 0.831 and 0.624 in support of the antithesis as well as -0.421 in support of the hypothesis. An economic anomaly known as the East Asian Financial Crisis may have been the cause of the unexpected correlations however more data is needed to be certain. Overall, the results demonstrated weak to moderate correlations between studied variables. However, more data is needed to reach substantial conclusions.

  18. Multiple-wavelength Variability and Quasi-periodic Oscillation of PMN J0948+0022

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhang, Jin [Key Laboratory of Space Astronomy and Technology, National Astronomical Observatories, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100012 (China); Zhang, Hai-Ming; Zhu, Yong-Kai; Lu, Rui-Jing; Liang, En-Wei [Guangxi Key Laboratory for Relativistic Astrophysics, Department of Physics, Guangxi University, Nanning 530004 (China); Yi, Ting-Feng [Department of Physics, Yunnan Normal University, Kunming 650500 (China); Yao, Su, E-mail: jinzhang@bao.ac.cn [Kavli Institute for Astronomy and Astrophysics, Peking University, Beijing 100871 (China)

    2017-11-01

    We present a comprehensive analysis of multiple-wavelength observational data of the first GeV-selected narrow-line Seyfert 1 galaxy PMN J0948+0022. We derive its light curves in the γ -ray and X-ray bands from the data observed with Fermi /LAT and Swift /XRT, and generate the optical and radio light curves by collecting the data from the literature. These light curves show significant flux variations. With the LAT data we show that this source is analogous to typical flat spectrum radio quasars in the L {sub γ} –Γ {sub γ} plane, where L {sub γ} and Γ {sub γ} are the luminosity and spectral index in the LAT energy band. The γ -ray flux is correlated with the V-band flux with a lag of ∼44 days, and a moderate quasi-periodic oscillation (QPO) with a periodicity of ∼490 days observed in the LAT light curve. A similar QPO signature is also found in the V-band light curve. The γ -ray flux is not correlated with the radio flux in 15 GHz, and no similar QPO signature is found at a confidence level of 95%. Possible mechanisms of the QPO are discussed. We propose that gravitational-wave observations in the future may clarify the current plausible models for the QPO.

  19. QUASI-PERIODIC OSCILLATIONS AND BROADBAND VARIABILITY IN SHORT MAGNETAR BURSTS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Huppenkothen, Daniela; Watts, Anna L.; Uttley, Phil; Van der Horst, Alexander J.; Van der Klis, Michiel [Astronomical Institute ' ' Anton Pannekoek' ' , University of Amsterdam, Postbus 94249, 1090-GE Amsterdam (Netherlands); Kouveliotou, Chryssa [Office of Science and Technology, ZP12, NASA Marshall Space Flight Center, Huntsville, AL 35812 (United States); Goegues, Ersin [Sabanc Latin-Small-Letter-Dotless-I University, Orhanl Latin-Small-Letter-Dotless-I -Tuzla, Istanbul 34956 (Turkey); Granot, Jonathan [The Open University of Israel, 1 University Road, P.O. Box 808, Ra' anana 43537 (Israel); Vaughan, Simon [X-Ray and Observational Astronomy Group, University of Leicester, Leicester LE1 7RH (United Kingdom); Finger, Mark H., E-mail: D.Huppenkothen@uva.nl [Universities Space Research Association, Huntsville, AL 35805 (United States)

    2013-05-01

    The discovery of quasi-periodic oscillations (QPOs) in magnetar giant flares has opened up prospects for neutron star asteroseismology. However, with only three giant flares ever recorded, and only two with data of sufficient quality to search for QPOs, such analysis is seriously data limited. We set out a procedure for doing QPO searches in the far more numerous, short, less energetic magnetar bursts. The short, transient nature of these bursts requires the implementation of sophisticated statistical techniques to make reliable inferences. Using Bayesian statistics, we model the periodogram as a combination of red noise at low frequencies and white noise at high frequencies, which we show is a conservative approach to the problem. We use empirical models to make inferences about the potential signature of periodic and QPOs at these frequencies. We compare our method with previously used techniques and find that although it is on the whole more conservative, it is also more reliable in ruling out false positives. We illustrate our Bayesian method by applying it to a sample of 27 bursts from the magnetar SGR J0501+4516 observed by the Fermi Gamma-ray Burst Monitor, and we find no evidence for the presence of QPOs in any of the bursts in the unbinned spectra, but do find a candidate detection in the binned spectra of one burst. However, whether this signal is due to a genuine quasi-periodic process, or can be attributed to unmodeled effects in the noise is at this point a matter of interpretation.

  20. Indo-Pacific Variability on Seasonal to Multidecadal Time Scales. Part I: Intrinsic SST Modes in Models and Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slawinska, Joanna; Giannakis, Dimitrios

    2017-07-01

    The variability of Indo-Pacific SST on seasonal to multidecadal timescales is investigated using a recently introduced technique called nonlinear Laplacian spectral analysis (NLSA). Through this technique, drawbacks associated with ad hoc pre-filtering of the input data are avoided, enabling recovery of low-frequency and intermittent modes not previously accessible via classical approaches. Here, a multiscale hierarchy of spatiotemporal modes is identified for Indo-Pacific SST in millennial control runs of CCSM4 and CM3 and in HadISST data. On interannual timescales, a mode with spatiotemporal patterns corresponding to the fundamental component of ENSO emerges, along with ENSO-modulated annual modes consistent with combination mode theory. The ENSO combination modes also feature prominent activity in the Indian Ocean, explaining significant fraction of the SST variance in regions associated with the Indian Ocean dipole. A pattern resembling the tropospheric biennial oscillation emerges in addition to ENSO and the associated combination modes. On multidecadal timescales, the dominant NLSA mode in the model data is predominantly active in the western tropical Pacific. The interdecadal Pacific oscillation also emerges as a distinct NLSA mode, though with smaller explained variance than the western Pacific multidecadal mode. Analogous modes on interannual and decadal timescales are also identified in HadISST data for the industrial era, as well as in model data of comparable timespan, though decadal modes are either absent or of degraded quality in these datasets.

  1. Coupled decadal variability of the North Atlantic Oscillation, regional rainfall and karst spring discharges in the Campania region (southern Italy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. De Vita

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Thus far, studies on climate change have focused mainly on the variability of the atmospheric and surface components of the hydrologic cycle, investigating the impact of this variability on the environment, especially with respect to the risks of desertification, droughts and floods. Conversely, the impacts of climate change on the recharge of aquifers and on the variability of groundwater flow have been less investigated, especially in Mediterranean karst areas whose water supply systems depend heavily upon groundwater exploitation.

    In this paper, long-term climatic variability and its influence on groundwater recharge were analysed by examining decadal patterns of precipitation, air temperature and spring discharges in the Campania region (southern Italy, coupled with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO.

    The time series of precipitation and air temperature were gathered over 90 yr, from 1921 to 2010, using 18 rain gauges and 9 air temperature stations with the most continuous functioning. The time series of the winter NAO index and of the discharges of 3 karst springs, selected from those feeding the major aqueducts systems, were collected for the same period.

    Regional normalised indexes of the precipitation, air temperature and karst spring discharges were calculated, and different methods were applied to analyse the related time series, including long-term trend analysis using smoothing numerical techniques, cross-correlation and Fourier analysis.

    The investigation of the normalised indexes highlighted the existence of long-term complex periodicities, from 2 to more than 30 yr, with differences in average values of up to approximately ±30% for precipitation and karst spring discharges, which were both strongly correlated with the winter NAO index.

    Although the effects of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO had already been demonstrated in the long-term precipitation and streamflow patterns of

  2. Climate variability from isotope records in precipitation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grassl, H.; Latif, M.; Schotterer, U.; Gourcy, L.

    2002-01-01

    Selected time series from the Global Network for Isotopes in Precipitation (GNIP) revealed a close relationship to climate variability phenomena like El Nino - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) or the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) although the precipitation anomaly in the case studies of Manaus (Brazil) and Groningen (The Netherlands) is rather weak. For a sound understanding of this relationship especially in the case of Manaus, the data should include major events like the 1997/98 El Nino, however, the time series are interrupted frequently or important stations are even closed. Improvements are only possible if existing key stations and new ones (placed at 'hot spots' derived from model experiments) are supported continuously. A close link of GNIP to important scientific programmes like CLIVAR, the Climate Variability and Predictability Programme seems to be indispensable for a successful continuation. (author)

  3. Marine lake ecosystem dynamics illustrate ENSO variation in the tropical western Pacific.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, Laura E; Dawson, Michael N; Bell, Lori J; Colin, Patrick L

    2006-03-22

    Understanding El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and its biological consequences is hindered by a lack of high-resolution, long-term data from the tropical western Pacific. We describe a preliminary, 6 year dataset that shows tightly coupled ENSO-related bio-physical dynamics in a seawater lake in Palau, Micronesia. The lake is more strongly stratified during La Niña than El Niño conditions, temperature anomalies in the lake co-vary strongly with the Niño 3.4 climate index, and the abundance of the dominant member of the pelagic community, an endemic subspecies of zooxanthellate jellyfish, is temperature associated. These results have broad relevance because the lake: (i) illustrates an ENSO signal that is partly obscured in surrounding semi-enclosed lagoon waters and, therefore, (ii) may provide a model system for studying the effects of climate change on community evolution and cnidarian-zooxanthellae symbioses, which (iii) should be traceable throughout the Holocene because the lake harbours a high quality sediment record; the sediment record should (iv) provide a sensitive and regionally unique record of Holocene climate relevant to predicting ENSO responses to future global climate change and, finally, (v) seawater lake ecosystems elsewhere in the Pacific may hold similar potential for past, present, and predictive measurements of climate variation and ecosystem response.

  4. Effect of AMOC collapse on ENSO in a high resolution general circulation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williamson, Mark S.; Collins, Mat; Drijfhout, Sybren S.; Kahana, Ron; Mecking, Jennifer V.; Lenton, Timothy M.

    2018-04-01

    We look at changes in the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in a high-resolution eddy-permitting climate model experiment in which the Atlantic Meridional Circulation (AMOC) is switched off using freshwater hosing. The ENSO mode is shifted eastward and its period becomes longer and more regular when the AMOC is off. The eastward shift can be attributed to an anomalous eastern Ekman transport in the mean equatorial Pacific ocean state. Convergence of this transport deepens the thermocline in the eastern tropical Pacific and increases the temperature anomaly relaxation time, causing increased ENSO period. The anomalous Ekman transport is caused by a surface northerly wind anomaly in response to the meridional sea surface temperature dipole that results from switching the AMOC off. In contrast to a previous study with an earlier version of the model, which showed an increase in ENSO amplitude in an AMOC off experiment, here the amplitude remains the same as in the AMOC on control state. We attribute this difference to variations in the response of decreased stochastic forcing in the different models, which competes with the reduced damping of temperature anomalies. In the new high-resolution model, these effects approximately cancel resulting in no change in amplitude.

  5. Variability and Reliability of Paired-Pulse Depression and Cortical Oscillation Induced by Median Nerve Stimulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Onishi, Hideaki; Otsuru, Naofumi; Kojima, Sho; Miyaguchi, Shota; Saito, Kei; Inukai, Yasuto; Yamashiro, Koya; Sato, Daisuke; Tamaki, Hiroyuki; Shirozu, Hiroshi; Kameyama, Shigeki

    2018-05-08

    Paired-pulse depression (PPD) has been widely used to investigate the functional profiles of somatosensory cortical inhibition. However, PPD induced by somatosensory stimulation is variable, and the reasons for between- and within-subject PPD variability remains unclear. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to clarify the factors influencing PPD variability induced by somatosensory stimulation. The study participants were 19 healthy volunteers. First, we investigated the relationship between the PPD ratio of each component (N20m, P35m, and P60m) of the somatosensory magnetic field, and the alpha, beta, and gamma band changes in power [event-related desynchronization (ERD) and event-related synchronization (ERS)] induced by median nerve stimulation. Second, because brain-derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF) gene polymorphisms reportedly influence the PPD ratio, we assessed whether BDNF genotype influences PPD ratio variability. Finally, we evaluated the test-retest reliability of PPD and the alpha, beta, and gamma ERD/ERS induced by somatosensory stimulation. Significant positive correlations were observed between the P60m_PPD ratio and beta power change, and the P60m_PPD ratio was significantly smaller for the beta ERD group than for the beta ERS group. P35m_PPD was found to be robust and highly reproducible; however, P60m_PPD reproducibility was poor. In addition, the ICC values for alpha, beta, and gamma ERD/ERS were 0.680, 0.760, and 0.552 respectively. These results suggest that the variability of PPD for the P60m deflection may be influenced by the ERD/ERS magnitude, which is induced by median nerve stimulation.

  6. Waves of El Nino-southern Oscillation and Influenza Pandemics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olusegun Steven Ayodele Oluwole

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Influenza pandemics have occurred at irregular intervals for over 500 years, unlike seasonal influenza epidemics which occur annually. Although the risk factors are known, the basis for the timing of influenza pandemic waves are unknown. Coherence of peaks of El Niño and influenza pandemic in 2009–2010, however, suggests that both waves are coupled. This study was done to determine the relation of influenza pandemics to the peaks and waveforms of El Niño southern oscillation (ENSO. ENSO cycles from 1871–2015 which had El Niño phases were windowed from Multivariate El Niño Index. Influenza pandemic peaks were mapped to ENSO monthly time series. ENSO waveforms were compared graphically, and fitted to nonstationary cosinor models. Second order polynomial regression model was fitted to the peak and duration of El Niño. Agglomerative hierarchical cluster of ENSO waveforms was performed. All influenza pandemic peaks mapped to El Niño peaks, with lags of 0–5 months. ENSO waveforms during influenza pandemics share parameters of oscillation. Nonstationary cosinor models showed that ENSO cycles are complex waves. There was second order polynomial relationship between peak and duration of El Niños, p < 0.0001. ENSO waveforms clustered into four distinct groups. ENSO waveforms during influenza pandemics of 1889–1900, 1957–1958, and 1968–1969 linked closely. ENSO indices were significantly high from 7–16 months after onset of cycles, p < 0.0001. Surveillance for El Niño events to forecast periods of maximal transmission and survival of influenza A viruses is, therefore, crucial for public health control strategies.

  7. Final Report for UW-Madison Portion of DE-SC0005301, "Collaborative Project: Pacific Decadal Variability and Central Pacific Warming El Niño in a Changing Climate"

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vimont, Daniel [University of Wisconsin - Madison

    2014-06-13

    This project funded two efforts at understanding the interactions between Central Pacific ENSO events, the mid-latitude atmosphere, and decadal variability in the Pacific. The first was an investigation of conditions that lead to Central Pacific (CP) and East Pacific (EP) ENSO events through the use of linear inverse modeling with defined norms. The second effort was a modeling study that combined output from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Atmospheric Model (CAM4) with the Battisti (1988) intermediate coupled model. The intent of the second activity was to investigate the relationship between the atmospheric North Pacific Oscillation (NPO), the Pacific Meridional Mode (PMM), and ENSO. These two activities are described herein.

  8. Joint spatiotemporal variability of global sea surface temperatures and global Palmer drought severity index values

    Science.gov (United States)

    Apipattanavis, S.; McCabe, G.J.; Rajagopalan, B.; Gangopadhyay, S.

    2009-01-01

    Dominant modes of individual and joint variability in global sea surface temperatures (SST) and global Palmer drought severity index (PDSI) values for the twentieth century are identified through a multivariate frequency domain singular value decomposition. This analysis indicates that a secular trend and variability related to the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are the dominant modes of variance shared among the global datasets. For the SST data the secular trend corresponds to a positive trend in Indian Ocean and South Atlantic SSTs, and a negative trend in North Pacific and North Atlantic SSTs. The ENSO reconstruction shows a strong signal in the tropical Pacific, North Pacific, and Indian Ocean regions. For the PDSI data, the secular trend reconstruction shows high amplitudes over central Africa including the Sahel, whereas the regions with strong ENSO amplitudes in PDSI are the southwestern and northwestern United States, South Africa, northeastern Brazil, central Africa, the Indian subcontinent, and Australia. An additional significant frequency, multidecadal variability, is identified for the Northern Hemisphere. This multidecadal frequency appears to be related to the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO). The multidecadal frequency is statistically significant in the Northern Hemisphere SST data, but is statistically nonsignificant in the PDSI data.

  9. REDEFINING ENSO EPISODES BASED ON CHANGED CLIMATE REFERENCES

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LI Xiao-yan; ZHAI Pan-mao; REN Fu-min

    2005-01-01

    Through studying changes in ENSO indices relative to change of climate reference from 1961~1990 to 1971~2000, the study generated new standards to define ENSO episodes and their intensities. Then according to the new climate references and new index standards, ENSO episodes and their intensities for the period 1951 -2003 have been classified. Finally, an analysis has been performed comparing the new characteristics with the old ones for ENSO period, peak values and intensities.

  10. Is ENSO related to 2015 Easter Star Capsized on the Yangtze River of China?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, P.

    2015-12-01

    Natural disasters have profound effects on community security and economic damage of China's Hubei province. In June 1st, 2015, a cruise ship, Easter Star, capsized on Yangtze River in Hubei province with 442 died. What reason gives rise to such strong convection causing ship sunk? Based on the wind disasters of Hubei province happened in 1963-2015, this study analyzes their features bytime-series regression, and correlates them to global El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. The compared results demonstrated that the wind disasters shown an increasing tendency. There are two peaks corresponding to the strongest ENSO peaks during the past 50 years; each peak lasts two-three years. The facts demonstrated an essential linear relation between the ENSO phenomena and wind disasters in Hubei province. 2015 Easter Star capsized happened at current El Niño event in 2014-2015. We also observed that the historical wind disasters appeared in seasonal variation. Over 90% events concentrated in spring and summer; very few events happened in autumn and winter. Moreover, the disasters depend on the geographic conditions. Most disasters concentrated in four zones, named as Xingshan-Baokang, Xuanen, Wufeng-Yichang, Jingzhou-Gongan, in which Xingshan and Changyang are the two most density of zones. Yangtze River provides an air flowing conduct for strong convective winds. It can be concluded that the strong convection causing 2015 Easter Star capsized is related to current global ENSO phenomenon.Keywords: ENSO, wind disaster, time-series regression analysis, Easter Star, Yangtze River, Hubei Province,

  11. An ENSO beginning in the year 2000?

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Gopinathan, C.K.

    Several models have been developed over the last few decades to predict the advent of new ENSO events several months in advance of the actual event. None of the models have predicted a warm event beginning by the year 2000. Positive SST anomalies...

  12. On the physical causes of ENSO events and the ITCZ's extreme latitudinal displacements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Njau, E.C.

    1988-08-01

    We predict the maximum latitudinal shifts of the Inter-Tropical convergence zone (ITCZ) over land masses due to variations in the surface or near-surface temperature fields. We also predict the mean locations of the ITCZ over oceans during northern hemisphere (NH) and southern hemisphere (SH) summers. All our predictions are shown to agree well with observations. Finally, on the basis of the association between the latitudinal location of the eastern pacific portion of the ITCZ and El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events as well as some previous related work (Njau, 1985a; 1985b; 1986; 1987; 1988), we suggest possible physical causes of the ENSO events. (author). 39 refs, 1 fig., 2 tabs

  13. Tailoring wheat management to ENSO phases for increased wheat production in Paraguay

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Melissa A. Ramirez-Rodrigues

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Reported regional wheat yields in Paraguay vary from 1 to 3 t/ha from year to year, but appear not to be correlated with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO phases. Historical weather data from two locations in representative wheat-growing regions of Paraguay, Encarnación-Itapúa and Ciudad del Este-Alto Paraná combined with crop modeling, were analyzed to optimize nitrogen (N fertilizer application rates according to the ENSO phase of a growing season. The ENSO phase of a growing season was defined based on the average of the sea surface temperature (SST anomalies in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific region for the period June–October using the El Niño region 3.0 index (Niño 3.0. Simulated average yields in Alto Paraná were higher in the drier and cooler La Niña wheat-growing seasons (average of 3.5 t/ha compared to the other phases (average of 3.2 t/ha and in Itapúa, in Neutral seasons (average of 3.8 t/ha compared to the other phases (average of 3.7 t/ha. Accordingly, optimal N fertilizer applications ranged between 20 and 60 kg N/ha between phases depending on the sowing date, soil type and initial amount of soil water content. Applying an ENSO or General Circulation Model (GCM-based forecast for ENSO-season-type specific N fertilizer applications resulted in benefits of >100 US$/ha when compared with current farmers’ practice of consistently low N fertilizer applications in Paraguay. When N management based on forecasts was compared with optimized N application without forecast, the benefits of the forecast was only up to 8 US$/ha. The ENSO-persistence-based forecast showed higher values than the GCM-based forecasts with two lead-times but lower skill. Using climate information can significantly increase current wheat yields and gross margins in Paraguay by tailoring N fertilizer applications to the Niño 3.0-defined ENSO phases, which can be forecasted with moderate skill at the beginning of the growing season.

  14. ENSO Diversity Changes Due To Global Warming In CESM-LE

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carreric, A.; Dewitte, B.; Guemas, V.

    2017-12-01

    The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is predicted to be modified due to global warming based on the CMIP3 and CMIP5 data bases. In particular the frequency of occurrence of extreme Eastern Pacific El Niño events is to double in the future in response to the increase in green-house gazes. Such forecast relies however on state-of-the-art models that still present mean state biases and do not simulate realistically key features of El Niño events such as its diversity which is related to the existence of at least two types of El Niño events, the Eastern Pacific (EP) El Nino and the Central Pacific (CP) El Niño events. Here we take advantage of the Community Earth System Model (CESM) Large Ensemble (LE) that provides 35 realizations of the climate of the 1920-2100 period with a combination of both natural and anthropogenic climate forcing factors, to explore on the one hand methods to detect changes in ENSO statistics and on the other hand to investigate changes in thermodynamical processes associated to the increase oceanic stratification owed to global warming. The CESM simulates realistically many aspects of the ENSO diversity, in particular the non-linear evolution of the phase space of the first two EOF modes of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies in the tropical Pacific. Based on indices accounting for the two ENSO regimes used in the literature, we show that, although there is no statistically significant (i.e. confidence level > 95%) changes in the occurrence of El Niño types from the present to the future climate, the estimate of the changes is sensitive to the definition of ENSO indices that is used. CESM simulates in particular an increase occurrence of extreme El Niño events that can vary by 28% from one method to the other. It is shown that the seasonal evolution of EP El Niño events is modified from the present to the future climate, with in particular a larger occurrence of events taking place in Austral summer in the warmer climate

  15. Linkages between ENSO/PDO signals and precipitation, streamflow in China during the last 100 years

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ouyang, R.; Liu, W.; Fu, G.; Liu, C.; Hu, L.; Wang, H.

    2014-09-01

    This paper investigates the single and combined impacts of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) on precipitation and streamflow in China over the last century. Results indicate that the precipitation and streamflow overall decrease during El Niño/PDO warm phase periods and increase during La Niña/PDO cool phase periods in the majority of China, although there are regional and seasonal differences. Precipitation and streamflow in the Yellow River basin, Yangtze River basin and Pearl River basin are more significantly influenced by El Niño and La Niña events than is precipitation and streamflow in the Songhua River basin, especially in October and November. Moreover, significant influence of ENSO on streamflow in the Yangtze River mainly occurs in summer and autumn while in the Pearl River influence primarily occurs in the winter and spring. The precipitation and streamflow are relatively greater in the warm PDO phase in the Songhua River basin and several parts of the Yellow River basin and relatively less in the Pearl River basin and most parts of Northwest China compared to those in the cool PDO phase, though there is little significance detected by Wilcoxon signed-rank test. When considering the combined influence of ENSO and PDO, the responses of precipitation/streamflow are shown to be opposite in northern China and southern China, with ENSO-related precipitation/streamflow enhanced in northern China and decreased in southern China during the warm PDO phases, and enhanced in southern China and decreased in northern China during the cool PDO phases. It is hoped that this study will be beneficial for understanding the precipitation/streamflow responses to the changing climate and will correspondingly provide valuable reference for water resources prediction and management across China.

  16. A Null-hypothesis to explain the El Niño-like Pacific Decadal Variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Lorenzo, E.

    2016-02-01

    Pacific low-frequency variability (timescale > 8 year) exhibits a well-known El Niño-like pattern of basin-scale sea surface temperature, which is found in all the major modes of Pacific decadal climate. Using a set of climate model experiments and observations, we decompose the mechanisms contributing to the growth, peak and decay of the Pacific low-frequency spatial variance. We find that the El-Niño-like inter-decadal pattern is established through the combined actions of Pacific Meridional Modes (MM) and the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Specifically, in the growing phase of the pattern, sub-tropical stochastic excitation of the MM, and its ENSO-precursor dynamics, becomes an important source of tropical low-frequency variance (e.g. red noise). Once in the tropics, ENSO amplifies and distributes this low-frequency energy in the extra-tropics through global teleconnections in the peak and decaying phases. In this stochastic red noise model of Pacific climate, the timescale of the MM/ENSO progression and extra-tropical decay (1-2 year) enhances the spatial memory of the decadal and inter-decadal El-Niño-like pattern.

  17. Tropical cyclone genesis in the Southern Hemisphere and its relationship with the ENSO

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Kuleshov

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available Tropical cyclogenesis climatology over the South Indian and South Pacific Oceans has been developed using a new tropical cyclone (TC archive for the Southern Hemisphere, and changes in geographical distribution of areas favourable for TC genesis related to changes in the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO phases have been investigated. To explain these changes, large-scale environmental variables which influence TC genesis and development such as sea surface temperatures (SSTs, relative humidity in mid-troposphere, vertical wind shear and lower tropospheric vorticity have been examined. In the South Indian Ocean, reduction of TC genesis in the western part of the basin and its increase in the eastern part as well as displacement of the area favourable for TC genesis further away from the equator during La Niña events compared to El Niño events can be explained by changes in geographical distribution of relative humidity and vorticity across the basin as primary contributors; positive anomalies of SSTs observed during La Niña seasons in the eastern part of the basin additionally contribute to enhanced cyclogenesis near the Western Australia. In the South Pacific Ocean, changes in geographical distribution of relative humidity and vorticity appear to be the key large-scale environmental factors responsible for enhanced TC genesis in the eastern (western part of the basin as well as for the northeast (southwest shift of points of cyclogenesis during El Niño (La Niña events, with vertical wind shear and SSTs as additional contributing large-scale environmental variables.

  18. Influence of surface nudging on climatological mean and ENSO feedbacks in a coupled model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Jieshun; Kumar, Arun

    2018-01-01

    Studies have suggested that surface nudging could be an efficient way to reconstruct the subsurface ocean variability, and thus a useful method for initializing climate predictions (e.g., seasonal and decadal predictions). Surface nudging is also the basis for climate models with flux adjustments. In this study, however, some negative aspects of surface nudging on climate simulations in a coupled model are identified. Specifically, a low-resolution version of the NCEP Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2L) is used to examine the influence of nudging on simulations of climatological mean and on the coupled feedbacks during ENSO. The effect on ENSO feedbacks is diagnosed following a heat budget analysis of mixed layer temperature anomalies. Diagnostics of the climatological mean state indicates that, even though SST biases in all ocean basins, as expected, are eliminated, the fidelity of climatological precipitation, surface winds and subsurface temperature (or the thermocline depth) could be highly ocean basin dependent. This is exemplified by improvements in the climatology of these variables in the tropical Atlantic, but degradations in the tropical Pacific. Furthermore, surface nudging also distorts the dynamical feedbacks during ENSO. For example, while the thermocline feedback played a critical role during the evolution of ENSO in a free simulation, it only played a minor role in the nudged simulation. These results imply that, even though the simulation of surface temperature could be improved in a climate model with surface nudging, the physics behind might be unrealistic.

  19. Present El Niño-ENSO events and past Super-ENSO events

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    1993-01-01

    Full Text Available LES ÉVÉNEMENTS ENSO ACTUELS ET LES ANCIENS ÉVÉNEMENTS SUPER-ENSO. Les événements ENSO actuels et les anciens événements Super-ENSO représentent la redistribution d’énergie et de masse dans le système terrestre, due à l’échange de momentum angulaire entre la Terre “solide” et l’hydrosphère. Les événements El Niño-ENSO actuels montrent une corrélation claire avec des décélérations interannuelles de la vitesse de rotation de la Terre: la durée du jour (LOD augmente. Bien qu’il soit généralement considéré que ces changements de rotation sont causés par l’échange de momentum angulaire avec l’atmosphère, nous démontrons ici qu’une grande partie, peut-être la majeure partie, des variations du LOD sont causées en réalité par l’échange du momentum angulaire entre la terre “solide” et l’hydrosphère dans un systéme couplé de régénération. Ce mécanisme agit aussi sur des échelles de temps qui vont de la décennie au siècle, provoquant des événements Super-ENSO. Plusieurs de ces événements ont été identifiés au cours de l’Holocène. Un événement de plus grande envergure a eu lieu à l’ère médiévale. Au cours de la période qui va de 13.5 à 9.5 Ka, les changements importants peuvent représenter des événements Mega-ENSO. Au cours des âges glaciaires, avec une vitesse de rotation plus grande, il est probable que les événements ENSO-El Niño furent absents. Dans les enregistrements du passé, de courte durée, les empreintes d’événements Super-ENSO doivent étre beaucoup plus fréquents que ceux de véritables ENSO interannuels, simplement parce que ces derniers sont trop brefs et généralement trop légers. ACTUALES EVENTOS EL NIÑO-ENSO Y ANTIGUOS EVENTOS SUPER-ENSO. Los actuales eventos ENSO y los antiguos eventos Super-ENSO representan la redistribución de energía y masa en el sistema terrestre, debido al intercambio de momento angular entre la Tierra “sólida” y la

  20. Climate Prediction Center - ENSO FAQ

    Science.gov (United States)

    data buoys used to monitor ocean temperatures? What is climate variability? A prominent aspect of our Niño or La Niña? During an El Niño or La Niña, the changes in Pacific Ocean temperatures affect Pacific. Changes in the ocean surface temperatures affect tropical rainfall patterns and atmospheric winds

  1. Assessment of the APCC Coupled MME Suite in Predicting the Distinctive Climate Impacts of Two Flavors of ENSO during Boreal Winter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeong, Hye-In; Lee, Doo Young; Karumuri, Ashok; Ahn, Joong-Bae; Lee, June-Yi; Luo, Jing-Jia; Schemm, Jae-Kyung E.; Hendon, Harry H.; Braganza, Karl; Ham, Yoo-Geun

    2012-01-01

    Forecast skill of the APEC Climate Center (APCC) Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) seasonal forecast system in predicting two main types of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), namely canonical (or cold tongue) and Modoki ENSO, and their regional climate impacts is assessed for boreal winter. The APCC MME is constructed by simple composite of ensemble forecasts from five independent coupled ocean-atmosphere climate models. Based on a hindcast set targeting boreal winter prediction for the period 19822004, we show that the MME can predict and discern the important differences in the patterns of tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomaly between the canonical and Modoki ENSO one and four month ahead. Importantly, the four month lead MME beats the persistent forecast. The MME reasonably predicts the distinct impacts of the canonical ENSO, including the strong winter monsoon rainfall over East Asia, the below normal rainfall and above normal temperature over Australia, the anomalously wet conditions across the south and cold conditions over the whole area of USA, and the anomalously dry conditions over South America. However, there are some limitations in capturing its regional impacts, especially, over Australasia and tropical South America at a lead time of one and four months. Nonetheless, forecast skills for rainfall and temperature over East Asia and North America during ENSO Modoki are comparable to or slightly higher than those during canonical ENSO events.

  2. Quantitative assessment of drivers of recent global temperature variability: an information theoretic approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhaskar, Ankush; Ramesh, Durbha Sai; Vichare, Geeta; Koganti, Triven; Gurubaran, S.

    2017-12-01

    Identification and quantification of possible drivers of recent global temperature variability remains a challenging task. This important issue is addressed adopting a non-parametric information theory technique, the Transfer Entropy and its normalized variant. It distinctly quantifies actual information exchanged along with the directional flow of information between any two variables with no bearing on their common history or inputs, unlike correlation, mutual information etc. Measurements of greenhouse gases: CO2, CH4 and N2O; volcanic aerosols; solar activity: UV radiation, total solar irradiance ( TSI) and cosmic ray flux ( CR); El Niño Southern Oscillation ( ENSO) and Global Mean Temperature Anomaly ( GMTA) made during 1984-2005 are utilized to distinguish driving and responding signals of global temperature variability. Estimates of their relative contributions reveal that CO2 ({˜ } 24 %), CH4 ({˜ } 19 %) and volcanic aerosols ({˜ }23 %) are the primary contributors to the observed variations in GMTA. While, UV ({˜ } 9 %) and ENSO ({˜ } 12 %) act as secondary drivers of variations in the GMTA, the remaining play a marginal role in the observed recent global temperature variability. Interestingly, ENSO and GMTA mutually drive each other at varied time lags. This study assists future modelling efforts in climate science.

  3. ENSO-Based Index Insurance: Approach and Peru Flood Risk Management Application

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khalil, A. F.; Kwon, H.; Lall, U.; Miranda, M. J.; Skees, J. R.

    2006-12-01

    Index insurance has recently been advocated as a useful risk transfer tool for disaster management situations where rapid fiscal relief is desirable, and where estimating insured losses may be difficult, time consuming, or subject to manipulation and falsification. For climate related hazards, a rainfall or temperature index may be proposed. However, rainfall may be highly spatially variable relative to the gauge network, and in many locations data are inadequate to develop an index due to short time-series and the spatial dispersion of stations. In such cases, it may be helpful to consider a climate proxy index as a regional rainfall index. This is particularly useful if a long record is available for the climate index through an independent source and it is well correlated with the regional rainfall hazard. Here, ENSO related climate indices are explored for use as a proxy to extreme rainfall in one of the departments of Peru -- Piura. The ENSO index insurance product may be purchased by banks or microfinance institutions (MFIs) to aid agricultural damage relief in Peru. Crop losses in the region are highly correlated with floods, but are difficult to assess directly. Beyond agriculture, many other sectors suffer as well. Basic infrastructure is destroyed during the most severe events. This disrupts trade for many micro-enterprises. The reliability and quality of the local rainfall data is variable. Averaging the financial risk across the region is desirable. Some issues with the implementation of the proxy ENSO index are identified and discussed. Specifically, we explore (a) the reliability of the index at different levels of probability of exceedance of maximum seasonal rainfall; (b) the potential for clustering of payoffs; (c) the potential that the index could be predicted with some lead time prior to the flood season; and (d) evidence for climate change or non-stationarity in the flood exceedance probability from the long ENSO record. Finally, prospects for

  4. Tree Carbohydrate Dynamics Across a Rainfall Gradient in Panama During the 2016 ENSO

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dickman, L. T.; Xu, C.; Behar, H.; McDowell, N.

    2017-12-01

    Non-structural carbohydrates (NSC) provide a measure of the carbon supply available to support respiration, growth, and defense. Support for a role of carbon starvation - or depletion of NSC stores - in drought induced tree mortality is varied without consensus for the tropics. The 2016 ENSO drought provided a unique opportunity to capture drought impacts on tropical forest carbohydrate dynamics. To quantify these impacts, we collected monthly NSC samples across a rainfall gradient in Panama for the duration of the ENSO. We observed high variability in foliar NSC among species within sites. Foliage contained very little starch, indicating that total NSC dynamics are driven by soluble sugars. Foliar NSC depletion did not progress with drought duration as predicted, but showed little variation over course of the ENSO. Foliar NSC did, however, increase with rainfall, suggesting NSC depletion may occur with longer-term drought. These results suggest that, while short-term droughts like the 2016 ENSO may not have a significant impact on carbon dynamics, we may observe greater impacts as drought progresses over longer timescales. These results will be used to evaluate whether the current implementation of carbon starvation in climate models are capturing observed trends in tropical forest carbon allocation and mortality, and to tune model parameters for improved predictive capability.

  5. ENSO shifts and their link to Southern Africa surface air temperature in summer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manatsa, D.; Mukwada, G.; Makaba, L.

    2018-05-01

    ENSO has been known to influence the trends of summer warming over Southern Africa. In this work, we used observational and reanalysis data to analyze the relationship between ENSO and maximum surface air temperature (SATmax) trends during the three epochs created by the ENSO phase shifts around 1977 and 1997 for the period 1960 to 2014. We observed that while ENSO and cloud cover remains the dominant factor controlling SATmax variability, the first two epochs had the predominant La Niña (El Niño)-like events connected to robust positive (negative) trends in cloud fraction. However, this established relationship reversed in the post-1997 La Niña-like dominated epoch which coincided with a falling cloud cover trend. It is established that this deviation from the previously established link within the previous epochs could be due to the post-1998 era in which SATmin was suppressed while SATmax was enhanced. The resulting increase in diurnal temperature range (DTR) could have discouraged the formation of low-level clouds which have relatively more extensive areal coverage and hence allowing more solar energy to reach the surface to boost daytime SATmax. It is noted that these relationships are more pronounced from December to March.

  6. Spatiotemporal Variance of Global Horizontal Moisture Transport and the Influence of Strong ENSO Events Using ERA-Interim Reanalysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kutta, E. J.; Hubbart, J. A.; Svoma, B. M.; Eichler, T. P.; Lupo, A. R.

    2016-12-01

    El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is well documented as a leading source of seasonal to inter-annual variations in global weather and climate. Strong ENSO events have been shown to alter the location and magnitude of Hadley and Walker circulations that maintain equilibrium at tropical latitudes and regulate moisture transport into mid-latitude storm tracks. Broad impacts associated with ENSO events include anomalous regional precipitation (ARP) and temperature patterns and subsequent impacts to socioeconomic and human health systems. Potential socioeconomic and human health impacts range from regional changes in water resources and agricultural productivity to local storm water management, particularly in rapidly urbanizing watersheds. Evidence is mounting to suggest that anthropogenic climate change will increase the frequency of heavy precipitation events, which compounds impacts of ARP patterns associated with strong El Nino events. Therefore, the need exists to identify common regional patterns of spatiotemporal variance of horizontal moisture flux (HMF) during months (Oct-Feb) associated with the peak intensity (Oceanic Nino Index [ONI]) of the three strongest El Nino (ONI > µ + 2σ) and La Nina (ONI hourly resolution before taking the density weighted vertical average. Long term means (LTM; 1979-2015) were quantified and the influence of strong ENSO events was assessed by quantifying deviations from the LTM for each respective covariance property during months associated with the selected ENSO events. Results reveal regions of statistically significant (CI = 0.05) differences from the LTM for the vertically integrated HMF and each covariance quantity. Broader implications of this work include potential for improved seasonal precipitation forecasts at regional scales and subsequent improvements to local water resource management. There is potential for future work objectively comparing these results with output from Earth System Models to improve

  7. An observational and modeling study of the regional impacts of climate variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horton, Radley M.

    Climate variability has large impacts on humans and their agricultural systems. Farmers are at the center of this agricultural network, but it is often agricultural planners---regional planners, extension agents, commodity groups and cooperatives---that translate climate information for users. Global climate models (GCMs) are a leading tool for understanding and predicting climate and climate change. Armed with climate projections and forecasts, agricultural planners adapt their decision-making to optimize outcomes. This thesis explores what GCMs can, and cannot, tell us about climate variability and change at regional scales. The question is important, since high-quality regional climate projections could assist farmers and regional planners in key management decisions, contributing to better agricultural outcomes. To answer these questions, climate variability and its regional impacts are explored in observations and models for the current and future climate. The goals are to identify impacts of observed variability, assess model simulation of variability, and explore how climate variability and its impacts may change under enhanced greenhouse warming. Chapter One explores how well Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) atmospheric models, forced by historical sea surface temperatures (SST), simulate climatology and large-scale features during the exceptionally strong 1997--1999 El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle. Reasonable performance in this 'proof of concept' test is considered a minimum requirement for further study of variability in models. All model versions produce appropriate local changes with ENSO, indicating that with correct ocean temperatures these versions are capable of simulating the large-scale effects of ENSO around the globe. A high vertical resolution model (VHR) provides the best simulation. Evidence is also presented that SST anomalies outside the tropical Pacific may play a key role in generating remote teleconnections even

  8. Mesoscale Convective Complexes (MCCs) over the Indonesian Maritime Continent during the ENSO events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trismidianto; Satyawardhana, H.

    2018-05-01

    This study analyzed the mesoscale convective complexes (MCCs) over the Indonesian Maritime Continent (IMC) during the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events for the the15-year period from 2001 to 2015. The MCCs identified by infrared satellite imagery that obtained from the Himawari generation satellite data. This study has reported that the frequencies of the MCC occurrences at the El Niño and La Niña were higher than that of neutral conditions during DJF. Peak of MCC occurrences during DJF at La Niña and neutral condition is in February, while El Niño is in January. ENSO strongly affects the occurrence of MCC during the DJF season. The existences of the MCC were also accompanied by increased rainfall intensity at the locations of the MCC occurrences for all ENSO events. During JJA seasons, the MCC occurrences are always found during neutral conditions, El Niño and La Niña in Indian Ocean. MCC occurring during the JJA season on El Niño and neutral conditions averaged much longer than during the DJF season. In contrast, MCCs occurring in La Niña conditions during the JJA season are more rapidly extinct than during the DJF. It indicates that the influence of MCC during La Niña during the DJF season is stronger than during the JJA season.

  9. Cyclic Markov chains with an application to an intermediate ENSO model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. A. Pasmanter

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available We develop the theory of cyclic Markov chains and apply it to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO predictability problem. At the core of Markov chain modelling is a partition of the state space such that the transition rates between different state space cells can be computed and used most efficiently. We apply a partition technique, which divides the state space into multidimensional cells containing an equal number of data points. This partition leads to mathematical properties of the transition matrices which can be exploited further such as to establish connections with the dynamical theory of unstable periodic orbits. We introduce the concept of most and least predictable states. The data basis of our analysis consists of a multicentury-long data set obtained from an intermediate coupled atmosphere-ocean model of the tropical Pacific. This cyclostationary Markov chain approach captures the spring barrier in ENSO predictability and gives insight also into the dependence of ENSO predictability on the climatic state.

  10. Analysis of the Effects of ENSO and Atmospheric Rivers on Precipitation in Los Angeles County

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santacruz, A.; Lamb, K.

    2017-12-01

    The Winter 2016-2017 season in California was marked by substantial amounts of precipitation; this resulted in critically-low reservoirs filling up and the removal of most of California from drought status. The year prior was characterized by one of the strongest El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events, though it did not produce nearly enough precipitation as the 2016-2017 season. The major contributors to the increased rainfall during the 2016-2017 season were climactic phenomenon known as atmospheric rivers (ARs), which transport water vapor through the atmosphere in narrow bands, and are known to produce extreme rain events. Determining the exact timing, landfall areas, and total precipitation amounts of ARs is currently of great interest; a recent study showed that extreme weather events are likely to increase in California in the coming years, which motivates research into how phenomenon such as ENSO and ARs play a role. Using long-term daily rain gauge data provided by the Los Angeles County Department of Public Works, we compute the precipitation volume and storm count for various locations in Los Angeles County and identify anomalies. These data will then be compared with the occurrence and intensity of AR and ENSO events by using NOAA's NOI and ESRL AR data. The results can be used to provide a better grasp of extreme climactic patterns and their effects on the amount of precipitation in the region.

  11. Impact of atmospheric model resolution on simulation of ENSO feedback processes: a coupled model study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hua, Lijuan; Chen, Lin; Rong, Xinyao; Su, Jingzhi; Wang, Lu; Li, Tim; Yu, Yongqiang

    2018-03-01

    This study examines El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-related air-sea feedback processes in a coupled general circulation model (CGCM) to gauge model errors and pin down their sources in ENSO simulation. Three horizontal resolutions of the atmospheric component (T42, T63 and T106) of the CGCM are used to investigate how the simulated ENSO behaviors are affected by the resolution. We find that air-sea feedback processes in the three experiments mainly differ in terms of both thermodynamic and dynamic feedbacks. We also find that these processes are simulated more reasonably in the highest resolution version than in the other two lower resolution versions. The difference in the thermodynamic feedback arises from the difference in the shortwave-radiation (SW) feedback. Due to the severely (mildly) excessive cold tongue in the lower (higher) resolution version, the SW feedback is severely (mildly) underestimated. The main difference in the dynamic feedback processes lies in the thermocline feedback and the zonal-advection feedback, both of which are caused by the difference in the anomalous thermocline response to anomalous zonal wind stress. The difference in representing the anomalous thermocline response is attributed to the difference in meridional structure of zonal wind stress anomaly in the three simulations, which is linked to meridional resolution.

  12. Large-scale shifts in phytoplankton groups in the Equatorial Pacific during ENSO cycles

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. Masotti

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO drives important changes in the marine productivity of the Equatorial Pacific, in particular during major El Niño/La Niña transitions. Changes in environmental conditions associated with these climatic events also likely impact phytoplankton composition. In this work, the distribution of four major phytoplankton groups (nanoeucaryotes, Prochlorococcus, Synechococcus, and diatoms was examined between 1996 and 2007 by applying the PHYSAT algorithm to the ocean color data archive from the Ocean Color and Temperature Sensor (OCTS and Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS. Coincident with the decrease in chlorophyll concentrations, a large-scale shift in the phytoplankton composition of the Equatorial Pacific, that was characterized by a decrease in Synechococcus and an increase in nanoeucaryote dominance, was observed during the early stages of both the strong El Niño of 1997 and the moderate El Niño of 2006. A significant increase in diatoms dominance was observed in the Equatorial Pacific during the 1998 La Niña and was associated with elevated marine productivity. An analysis of the environmental variables using a coupled physical-biogeochemical model (NEMO-PISCES suggests that the Synechococcus dominance decrease during the two El Niño events was associated with an abrupt decline in nutrient availability (−0.9 to −2.5 μM NO3 month−1. Alternatively, increased nutrient availability (3 μM NO3 month−1 during the 1998 La Niña resulted in Equatorial Pacific dominance diatom increase. Despite these phytoplankton community shifts, the mean composition is restored after a few months, which suggests resilience in community structure.

  13. Impacts of high-latitude volcanic eruptions on ENSO and AMOC.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pausata, Francesco S R; Chafik, Leon; Caballero, Rodrigo; Battisti, David S

    2015-11-10

    Large volcanic eruptions can have major impacts on global climate, affecting both atmospheric and ocean circulation through changes in atmospheric chemical composition and optical properties. The residence time of volcanic aerosol from strong eruptions is roughly 2-3 y. Attention has consequently focused on their short-term impacts, whereas the long-term, ocean-mediated response has not been well studied. Most studies have focused on tropical eruptions; high-latitude eruptions have drawn less attention because their impacts are thought to be merely hemispheric rather than global. No study to date has investigated the long-term effects of high-latitude eruptions. Here, we use a climate model to show that large summer high-latitude eruptions in the Northern Hemisphere cause strong hemispheric cooling, which could induce an El Niño-like anomaly, in the equatorial Pacific during the first 8-9 mo after the start of the eruption. The hemispherically asymmetric cooling shifts the Intertropical Convergence Zone southward, triggering a weakening of the trade winds over the western and central equatorial Pacific that favors the development of an El Niño-like anomaly. In the model used here, the specified high-latitude eruption also leads to a strengthening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) in the first 25 y after the eruption, followed by a weakening lasting at least 35 y. The long-lived changes in the AMOC strength also alter the variability of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO).

  14. El Niño-Southern Oscillation-based index insurance for floods: Statistical risk analyses and application to Peru

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khalil, Abedalrazq F.; Kwon, Hyun-Han; Lall, Upmanu; Miranda, Mario J.; Skees, Jerry

    2007-10-01

    Index insurance has recently been advocated as a useful risk transfer tool for disaster management situations where rapid fiscal relief is desirable and where estimating insured losses may be difficult, time consuming, or subject to manipulation and falsification. For climate-related hazards, a rainfall or temperature index may be proposed. However, rainfall may be highly spatially variable relative to the gauge network, and in many locations, data are inadequate to develop an index because of short time series and the spatial dispersion of stations. In such cases, it may be helpful to consider a climate proxy index as a regional rainfall index. This is particularly useful if a long record is available for the climate index through an independent source and it is well correlated with the regional rainfall hazard. Here El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) related climate indices are explored for use as a proxy to extreme rainfall in one of the districts of Peru, Piura. The ENSO index insurance product may be purchased by banks or microfinance institutions to aid agricultural damage relief in Peru. Crop losses in the region are highly correlated with floods but are difficult to assess directly. Beyond agriculture, many other sectors suffer as well. Basic infrastructure is destroyed during the most severe events. This disrupts trade for many microenterprises. The reliability and quality of the local rainfall data are variable. Averaging the financial risk across the region is desirable. Some issues with the implementation of the proxy ENSO index are identified and discussed. Specifically, we explore (1) the reliability of the index at different levels of probability of exceedance of maximum seasonal rainfall, (2) the effect of sampling uncertainties and the strength of the proxy's association to local outcome, (3) the potential for clustering of payoffs, (4) the potential that the index could be predicted with some lead time prior to the flood season, and (5) evidence

  15. Biennial-Aligned Lunisolar-Forcing of ENSO: Implications for Simplified Climate Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pukite, P. R.

    2017-12-01

    By solving Laplace's tidal equations along the equatorial Pacific thermocline, assuming a delayed-differential effective gravity forcing due to a combined lunar+solar (lunisolar) stimulus, we are able to precisely match ENSO periodic variations over wide intervals. The underlying pattern is difficult to decode by conventional means such as spectral analysis, which is why it has remained hidden for so long, despite the excellent agreement in the time-domain. What occurs is that a non-linear seasonal modulation with monthly and fortnightly lunar impulses along with a biennially-aligned "see-saw" is enough to cause a physical aliasing and thus multiple folding in the frequency spectrum. So, instead of a conventional spectral tidal decomposition, we opted for a time-domain cross-validating approach to calibrate the amplitude and phasing of the lunisolar cycles. As the lunar forcing consists of three fundamental periods (draconic, anomalistic, synodic), we used the measured Earth's length-of-day (LOD) decomposed and resolved at a monthly time-scale [1] to align the amplitude and phase precisely. Even slight variations from the known values of the long-period tides will degrade the fit, so a high-resolution calibration is possible. Moreover, a narrow training segment from 1880-1920 using NINO34/SOI data is adequate to extrapolate the cycles of the past 100 years (see attached figure). To further understand the biennial impact of a yearly differential-delay, we were able to also decompose using difference equations the historical sea-level-height readings at Sydney harbor to clearly expose the ENSO behavior. Finally, the ENSO lunisolar model was validated by back-extrapolating to Unified ENSO coral proxy (UEP) records dating to 1650. The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) behavior of equatorial stratospheric winds derives following a similar pattern to ENSO via the tidal equations, but with an emphasis on draconic forcing. This improvement in ENSO and QBO understanding has

  16. Tropical influence on Euro-Asian autumn rainfall variability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mariotti, A. [University of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States); ENEA, Rome (Italy); Ballabrera-Poy, J. [University of Maryland, ESSIC, College Park, MD (United States); Zeng, N. [University of Maryland, ESSIC, College Park, MD (United States); University of Maryland, Department of Meteorology,, College Park, MD (United States)

    2005-04-01

    The connection between autumn rainfall variability in the Euro-Asian domain and tropical climate is documented using state-of-the-art global observational datasets and re-analyses. Results suggest a robust statistical relationship between the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and autumn rainfall in parts of southwest Europe, northern Africa and southwest Asia. The correlation between area-mean anomalies over this region (P{sub ea}) and the NINO3.4 index is 0.68, stationary over the last 50 years. Global ENSO-like tropical climate anomalies are observed in conjunction with P{sub ea} anomalies confirming the relationship found with the NINO3.4 index. Overall, the connection with Indo-Pacific variability is stronger than that with the eastern Pacific.While rainfall anomalies in southwest Europe and southwest Asia appear to largely co-vary as one pattern under the influence of ENSO, our results suggest that different mechanisms may be contributing to the observed anomalies. In the North Atlantic/European region, it is speculated that while a PNA-like mode maybe the prevailing teleconnection mechanism for high P{sub ea}, for low P{sub ea} tropical Atlantic ENSO related SST anomalies may be playing a more relevant role forcing northeastward propagating Rossby waves. Over southwest Asia, a more direct connection to the Indo-Pacific region is suggested by the upper air anomaly observed over southern Asia, possibly the Rossby wave response to enhanced heating in the Indian Ocean. (orig.)

  17. Environmental forcing and Southern Ocean marine predator populations: effects of climate change and variability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trathan, P N; Forcada, J; Murphy, E J

    2007-12-29

    The Southern Ocean is a major component within the global ocean and climate system and potentially the location where the most rapid climate change is most likely to happen, particularly in the high-latitude polar regions. In these regions, even small temperature changes can potentially lead to major environmental perturbations. Climate change is likely to be regional and may be expressed in various ways, including alterations to climate and weather patterns across a variety of time-scales that include changes to the long interdecadal background signals such as the development of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Oscillating climate signals such as ENSO potentially provide a unique opportunity to explore how biological communities respond to change. This approach is based on the premise that biological responses to shorter-term sub-decadal climate variability signals are potentially the best predictor of biological responses over longer time-scales. Around the Southern Ocean, marine predator populations show periodicity in breeding performance and productivity, with relationships with the environment driven by physical forcing from the ENSO region in the Pacific. Wherever examined, these relationships are congruent with mid-trophic-level processes that are also correlated with environmental variability. The short-term changes to ecosystem structure and function observed during ENSO events herald potential long-term changes that may ensue following regional climate change. For example, in the South Atlantic, failure of Antarctic krill recruitment will inevitably foreshadow recruitment failures in a range of higher trophic-level marine predators. Where predator species are not able to accommodate by switching to other prey species, population-level changes will follow. The Southern Ocean, though oceanographically interconnected, is not a single ecosystem and different areas are dominated by different food webs. Where species occupy different positions in

  18. Coping Strategies to Deal with Environmental Variability and Extreme Climatic Events in the Peruvian Anchovy Fishery

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marilú Bouchon

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available The Peruvian anchovy fishery is the largest worldwide in terms of catches. The fishery started during the mid 1950s, and since then it has been highly dependent on natural stock fluctuations, due to the sensitivity of anchovy stocks to ocean-climate variability. The main driver of anchovy stock variability is the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO, and three extreme ENSO warm events were recorded in 1972–1973, 1983–1984 and 1997–1998. This study investigates the evolution of coping strategies developed by the anchovy fisheries to deal with climate variability and extreme ENSO events. Results showed eight coping strategies to reduce impacts on the fishery. These included: decentralized installation of anchovy processing factories; simultaneous ownership of fishing fleet and processing factories; use of low-cost unloading facilities; opportunistic utilization of invading fish populations; low cost intensive monitoring; rapid flexible management; reduction of fishmeal price uncertainty through controlled production based on market demand; and decoupling of fishmeal prices from those of other protein-rich feed substitutes like soybean. This research shows that there are concrete lessons to be learned from successful adaptations to cope with climate change-related extreme climatic events that impact the supply of natural resources. The lessons can contribute to improved policies for coping with climate change in the commercial fishery sector.

  19. Mid-Holocene onset of high-amplitude decadal to centennial scale variability along the Peru Chile Margin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chazen, C. R.; Altabet, M.; Herbert, T. D.

    2008-12-01

    Understanding the natural climate variations in the eastern tropical Pacific is crucial for predicting the evolution of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) system and for anticipating the ways in which increases in atmospheric CO2 will affect climate. Here we present the first continuous, high-resolution (11-12 yr) climate record across the mid-Holocene transition (10ka-1.4ka) from the Peru-Chile Margin near the epicenter of the modern ENSO system. Although the high productivity of the Peru margin should promote high deposition rates, and the anaerobic bottom water conditions should inhibit sediment mixing by benthic organisms, nearly all sediment cores recovered from this region suffer from major gaps in Holocene sedimentation. Our data comes from a ~5 meter piston core collected from the mid-Peruvian shelf (15° 15"S, 75° 58"W, ~250mwd) in the heart of the oxygen minimum/denitrification zone that provides the first uninterrupted archive of conditions along the Peru-Chile margin. A suite of geochemical proxies allow us to reconstruct sea surface temperature (SST- Uk'37), phytoplankton productivity (C37total and %BSi), and thermocline ventilation (δ15N), variables that are tightly correlated to ENSO events today. Despite the observation that the mean late Holocene state of all three variables did not change over the last 10,000 years, our data reveal a dramatic increase in climate variability after the mid Holocene (~5ka); represented by prolonged periods (50-200yrs) of climate extremes, which are absent in the early Holocene. To further investigate these climate extremes we examine benthic foraminiferal assemblages and oxygen isotopes in combination with our other proxy records in selected late Holocene sections. The roughly centennial-scale oscillations do not show typical El Niño-La Niña correlations between proxies. We therefore posit that a significant fraction of super-ENSO variance during the course of the Holocene may originate outside the tropics

  20. Response of O2 and pH to ENSO in the California Current System in a high-resolution global climate model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turi, Giuliana; Alexander, Michael; Lovenduski, Nicole S.; Capotondi, Antonietta; Scott, James; Stock, Charles; Dunne, John; John, Jasmin; Jacox, Michael

    2018-02-01

    Coastal upwelling systems, such as the California Current System (CalCS), naturally experience a wide range of O2 concentrations and pH values due to the seasonality of upwelling. Nonetheless, changes in the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) have been shown to measurably affect the biogeochemical and physical properties of coastal upwelling regions. In this study, we use a novel, high-resolution global climate model (GFDL-ESM2.6) to investigate the influence of warm and cold ENSO events on variations in the O2 concentration and the pH of the CalCS coastal waters. An assessment of the CalCS response to six El Niño and seven La Niña events in ESM2.6 reveals significant variations in the response between events. However, these variations overlay a consistent physical and biogeochemical (O2 and pH) response in the composite mean. Focusing on the mean response, our results demonstrate that O2 and pH are affected rather differently in the euphotic zone above ˜ 100 m. The strongest O2 response reaches up to several hundreds of kilometers offshore, whereas the pH signal occurs only within a ˜ 100 km wide band along the coast. By splitting the changes in O2 and pH into individual physical and biogeochemical components that are affected by ENSO variability, we found that O2 variability in the surface ocean is primarily driven by changes in surface temperature that affect the O2 solubility. In contrast, surface pH changes are predominantly driven by changes in dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC), which in turn is affected by upwelling, explaining the confined nature of the pH signal close to the coast. Below ˜ 100 m, we find conditions with anomalously low O2 and pH, and by extension also anomalously low aragonite saturation, during La Niña. This result is consistent with findings from previous studies and highlights the stress that the CalCS ecosystem could periodically undergo in addition to impacts due to climate change.

  1. Possible influence of the ENSO phenomenon on the pathoecology of diphyllobothriasis and anisakiasis in ancient Chinchorro populations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bernardo T Arriaza

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available Current clinical data show a clear relationship between the zoonosis rates of Diphyllobothrium pacificum and Anisakis caused by the El Niño Southern Oscillations (ENSO phenomenon along the Chilean coast. These parasites are endemic to the region and have a specific habitat distribution. D. pacificum prefers the warmer waters in the northern coast, while Anisakis prefers the colder waters of Southern Chile. The ENSO phenomenon causes a drastic inversion in the seawater temperatures in this region, modifying both the cool nutrient-rich seawater and the local ecology. This causes a latitudinal shift in marine parasite distribution and prevalence, as well as drastic environmental changes. The abundance of human mummies and archaeological coastal sites in the Atacama Desert provides an excellent model to test the ENSO impact on antiquity. We review the clinical and archaeological literature debating to what extent these parasites affected the health of the Chinchorros, the earliest settlers of this region. We hypothesise the Chinchorro and their descendants were affected by this natural and cyclical ENSO phenomenon and should therefore present fluctuating rates of D. pacificum and Anisakis infestations.

  2. Perspective on the northwestward shift of autumn tropical cyclogenesis locations over the western North Pacific from shifting ENSO

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Chundi; Zhang, Chengyang; Yang, Song; Chen, Dake; He, Shengping

    2017-11-01

    During the recent decades of satellite era, more tropical cyclogenesis locations (TCLs) were observed over the northwestern part of the western North Pacific (WNP), relative to the southeastern part, during the boreal autumn. This increase in TCLs over the northwestern WNP is largely attributed to the synergy of shifting El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the 1998 Pacific climate regime shift. Both central Pacific (CP) La Niña and CP El Niño have occurred more frequently since 1998, with only one eastern Pacific El Niño observed in autumn 2015. The change in the mean longitude of TCLs is closely linked to the ENSO diversity, whereas the change in the mean latitude is dominated by the warming of the WNP induced by an interdecadal tendency of CP La Niña-like events. The physical mechanisms responsible for this shifting ENSO-TCL linkage can be potentially explained by the tacit-and-mutual configurations between tropical upper-tropospheric trough and monsoon trough, on both interannual and interdecadal timescales, which is mainly due to the ENSO-related large-scale environment changes in ocean and atmosphere that modulate the WNP TCL.

  3. Disentangling Global Warming, Multidecadal Variability, and El Niño in Pacific Temperatures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wills, Robert C.; Schneider, Tapio; Wallace, John M.; Battisti, David S.; Hartmann, Dennis L.

    2018-03-01

    A key challenge in climate science is to separate observed temperature changes into components due to internal variability and responses to external forcing. Extended integrations of forced and unforced climate models are often used for this purpose. Here we demonstrate a novel method to separate modes of internal variability from global warming based on differences in time scale and spatial pattern, without relying on climate models. We identify uncorrelated components of Pacific sea surface temperature variability due to global warming, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Our results give statistical representations of PDO and ENSO that are consistent with their being separate processes, operating on different time scales, but are otherwise consistent with canonical definitions. We isolate the multidecadal variability of the PDO and find that it is confined to midlatitudes; tropical sea surface temperatures and their teleconnections mix in higher-frequency variability. This implies that midlatitude PDO anomalies are more persistent than previously thought.

  4. Comparative Study of the Effects of ENSO Phenomenon (El Niño, La Niña on Temperature and Precipitation of Mashhad

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    vajiheh mohammadi sabet

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: The Southern Oscillation is a large scale phenomenon that changes the Normal oscillating air pressure on both sides of the Pacific Ocean. It disrupted the normal conditions and the patterns of temperature and precipitation change in the nearby region and other regions of the world. This phenomenon is caused by changing the water slope in the Pacific Ocean between Peru (northwestern South America and Northern Australia (about Indonesia and Malaysia. ENSO phenomenon is formed of Elnino (warm state and La Niña (cold state. There is high pressure system in the East and low pressure system in the West Pacific Ocean in normal conditions (Walker cycle. The trade winds blow from East to West with high intensity. ENSO start when the trade winds and temperature and pressure balance on both sides of the PacificOcean change. High pressure will form in the west and low pressure will form in the East. As a result, west will have high and east will have low rainfall. Temperature will change at these two locations. Enso longs about 6 to 18 months. This research investigated the impact of ENSO on monthly precipitation and temperature of Mashhad.The results showed that temperature and rainfall have a good relation with ENSO.This relation occurs in 0-5 month lag. Materials and Methods: The severity of ENSO phenomenon is known by an index which is called ENSO index. The index is the anomaly of sea surface temperature in the Pacific. The long-term temperature and precipitation data of Mashhad selected and analyzed. The Rainfall has no trend but temperature has trend. The trend of temperature modeled by MARS regression and trend was removed.The rainfall data changed to standard and temperature changed to anomaly for comparison with ENSO index. The 2016 annual and monthly temperature of Mashhad is not available. The 2016 Annual temperature was forecasted by ARMA (1,1 model. Then this forecast disaggregated to monthly temperature. For each period of

  5. Oceanic Channel of the IOD-ENSO teleconnection over the Indo-Pacific Ocean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuan, Dongliang; Wang, Jing; Zhao, Xia; Zhou, Hui; Xu, Tengfei; Xu, Peng

    2017-04-01

    The lag correlations of observations and model simulated data that participate the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase-5 (CMIP5) are used to study the precursory teleconnection between the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and the Pacific ENSO one year later through the Indonesian seas. The results suggest that Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) play an important role in the IOD-ENSO teleconnection. Numerical simulations using a hierarchy of ocean models and climate coupled models have shown that the interannual sea level depressions in the southeastern Indian Ocean during IOD force enhanced ITF to transport warm water of the Pacific warm pool to the Indian Ocean, producing cold subsurface temperature anomalies, which propagate to the eastern equatorial Pacific and induce significant coupled ocean-atmosphere evolution. The teleconnection is found to have decadal variability. Similar decadal variability has also been identified in the historical simulations of the CMIP5 models. The dynamics of the inter-basin teleconnection during the positive phases of the decadal variability are diagnosed to be the interannual variations of the ITF associated with the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). During the negative phases, the thermocline in the eastern equatorial Pacific is anomalously deeper so that the sea surface temperature anomalies in the cold tongue are not sensitive to the thermocline depth changes. The IOD-ENSO teleconnection is found not affected significantly by the anthropogenic forcing.

  6. An alternative approach to exact wave functions for time-dependent coupled oscillator model of charged particle in variable magnetic field

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Menouar, Salah; Maamache, Mustapha; Choi, Jeong Ryeol

    2010-01-01

    The quantum states of time-dependent coupled oscillator model for charged particles subjected to variable magnetic field are investigated using the invariant operator methods. To do this, we have taken advantage of an alternative method, so-called unitary transformation approach, available in the framework of quantum mechanics, as well as a generalized canonical transformation method in the classical regime. The transformed quantum Hamiltonian is obtained using suitable unitary operators and is represented in terms of two independent harmonic oscillators which have the same frequencies as that of the classically transformed one. Starting from the wave functions in the transformed system, we have derived the full wave functions in the original system with the help of the unitary operators. One can easily take a complete description of how the charged particle behaves under the given Hamiltonian by taking advantage of these analytical wave functions.

  7. Radio and γ -Ray Variability in the BL Lac PKS 0219−164: Detection of Quasi-periodic Oscillations in the Radio Light Curve

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bhatta, Gopal, E-mail: gopalbhatta716@gmail.com [Astronomical Observatory of the Jagiellonian University, ul. Orla 171, 30-244 Kraków (Poland); Mt. Suhora Observatory, Pedagogical University, ul. Podchorazych 2, 30-084 Kraków (Poland)

    2017-09-20

    In this work, we explore the long-term variability properties of the blazar PKS 0219−164 in the radio and the γ -ray regime, utilizing the OVRO 15 GHz and the Fermi /LAT observations from the period 2008–2017. We found that γ -ray emission is more variable than the radio emission implying that γ -ray emission possibly originated in more compact regions while the radio emission represented continuum emission from the large-scale jets. Also, in the γ -ray, the source exhibited spectral variability, characterized by the softer-when-brighter trend, a less frequently observed feature in the high-energy emission by BL Lacs. In radio, using Lomb–Scargle periodogram and weighted wavelet z -transform, we detected a strong signal of quasi-periodic oscillation (QPO) with a periodicity of 270 ± 26 days with possible harmonics of 550 ± 42 and 1150 ± 157 day periods. At a time when detections of QPOs in blazars are still under debate, the observed QPO with high statistical significance (∼97%–99% global significance over underlying red-noise processes) and persistent over nearly 10 oscillations could make one of the strongest cases for the detection of QPOs in blazar light curves. We discuss various blazar models that might lead to the γ -ray and radio variability, QPO, and the achromatic behavior seen in the high-energy emission from the source.

  8. Impacts of winter NPO on subsequent winter ENSO: sensitivity to the definition of NPO index

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Shangfeng; Wu, Renguang

    2018-01-01

    This study investigates the linkage between boreal winter North Pacific Oscillation (NPO) and subsequent winter El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) based on seven different NPO indices. Results show that the influence of winter NPO on the subsequent winter El Niño is sensitive to how the NPO is defined. A significant NPO-El Niño connection is obtained when the NPO-related anomalous cyclone over the subtropical North Pacific extends to near-equatorial regions. The anomalous cyclone induces warm sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies through modulating surface heat fluxes. These warm SST anomalies are able to maintain into the following spring and summer through an air-sea coupled process and in turn induce significant westerly wind anomalies over the tropical western Pacific. In contrast, the NPO-El Niño relationship is unclear when the NPO-related anomalous cyclone over the subtropical North Pacific is confined to off-equatorial regions and cannot induce significant warm SST anomalies over the subtropical North Pacific. The present study suggests that definitions of NPO should be taken into account when using NPO to predict ENSO. In particular, we recommend defining the NPO index based on the empirical orthogonal function technique over appropriate region that does not extend too far north.

  9. Improving seasonal forecasts of hydroclimatic variables through the state of multiple large-scale climate signals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castelletti, A.; Giuliani, M.; Block, P. J.

    2017-12-01

    Increasingly uncertain hydrologic regimes combined with more frequent and intense extreme events are challenging water systems management worldwide, emphasizing the need of accurate medium- to long-term predictions to timely prompt anticipatory operations. Despite modern forecasts are skillful over short lead time (from hours to days), predictability generally tends to decrease on longer lead times. Global climate teleconnection, such as El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), may contribute in extending forecast lead times. However, ENSO teleconnection is well defined in some locations, such as Western USA and Australia, while there is no consensus on how it can be detected and used in other regions, particularly in Europe, Africa, and Asia. In this work, we generalize the Niño Index Phase Analysis (NIPA) framework by contributing the Multi Variate Niño Index Phase Analysis (MV-NIPA), which allows capturing the state of multiple large-scale climate signals (i.e. ENSO, North Atlantic Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation, Indian Ocean Dipole) to forecast hydroclimatic variables on a seasonal time scale. Specifically, our approach distinguishes the different phases of the considered climate signals and, for each phase, identifies relevant anomalies in Sea Surface Temperature (SST) that influence the local hydrologic conditions. The potential of the MV-NIPA framework is demonstrated through an application to the Lake Como system, a regulated lake in northern Italy which is mainly operated for flood control and irrigation supply. Numerical results show high correlations between seasonal SST values and one season-ahead precipitation in the Lake Como basin. The skill of the resulting MV-NIPA forecast outperforms the one of ECMWF products. This information represents a valuable contribution to partially anticipate the summer water availability, especially during drought events, ultimately supporting the improvement of the Lake Como

  10. Evidences linking ENSO and coral growth in the Southwestern-South Atlantic

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Evangelista, H. [LARAMG, Laboratorio de Radioecologia e Mudancas Globais/DBB/UERJ. Pav. HLC, Subsolo, Maracana, RJ (Brazil); Godiva, D. [LARAMG, Laboratorio de Radioecologia e Mudancas Globais/DBB/UERJ. Pav. HLC, Subsolo, Maracana, RJ (Brazil); Universidade Federal Fluminense, Outeiro Sao Joao Batista, s/n, Centro, Departamento de Geoquimica Ambiental, Niteroi, RJ (Brazil); Sifeddine, A. [IRD, Institut de Recherche Pour le Developpement, UR055 Paleotropique, Bondy (France); Universidade Federal Fluminense, Outeiro Sao Joao Batista, s/n, Centro, Departamento de Geoquimica Ambiental, Niteroi, RJ (Brazil); Leao, Z.M.A.N.; Kikuchi, R.K.P. [UFBA/Instituto de Geociencias. Rua Barao de Geremoabo, s/n, Federacao, Salvador, BA (Brazil); Rigozo, N.R. [LARAMG, Laboratorio de Radioecologia e Mudancas Globais/DBB/UERJ. Pav. HLC, Subsolo, Maracana, RJ (Brazil); FAETEC, Faculdade de Educacao e Tecnologia Thereza Porto Marques, Jacarei, SP (Brazil); Segal, B. [UFRJ/Museu Nacional/Setor de Celenterologia/Departamento de Invertebrados, Quinta da Boa Vista s/n, Sao Cristovao, RJ (Brazil); Ambrizzi, T. [USP/Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil); Kampel, M. [INPE/Divisao de Sensoriamento Remoto, Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil); Cornec, F. le [Universidade Federal Fluminense, Outeiro Sao Joao Batista, s/n, Centro, Departamento de Geoquimica Ambiental, Niteroi, RJ (Brazil)

    2007-12-15

    Physical and biological changes in the marine environment, induced by oceanic-atmospheric processes, can be imprinted in massive coral skeletons. Herein, we present an evidence of potential El Nino impacts at the Southwestern South Atlantic Ocean (SWSA) inferred from the sclerochronology of the reef coral Favia leptophylla. The application of spectral analysis (wavelet decomposition and the iterative regression) to coral growth length and to meteorological-oceanographic parameters (air temperature, sea surface temperature and precipitation) as well as to Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and solar irradiation indicated a major significant inverse relationship between SOI and coral growth length at the 4-8 years frequency band. We propose here that coral growth length from the SWSA could be affected by El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events through an ''atmospheric bridge'', in contrast to its direct effect at the Pacific Ocean, related to the increase in sea surface temperature. (orig.)

  11. Effects of climate oscillations on wildland fire potential in the continental United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shelby A. Mason; Peter E. Hamlington; Benjamin D. Hamlington; W. Matt Jolly; Chad M. Hoffman

    2017-01-01

    The effects of climate oscillations on spatial and temporal variations in wildland fire potential in the continental U.S. are examined from 1979 to 2015 using cyclostationary empirical orthogonal functions (CSEOFs). The CSEOF analysis isolates effects associated with the modulated annual cycle and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The results show that, in early...

  12. Simulation of Relationship between ENSO and winter precipitation over Western Himalayas: Application of Regional climate model (RegT-Band)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tiwari, P. R.; Mohanty, U. C.; Dey, S.; Acharaya, N.; Sinha, P.

    2012-12-01

    Precipitation over the Western Himalayas region during winter is mainly associated with the passage of midlatitude synoptic systems known as western disturbances (WDs). Recently, many observational and modeling studies reported that the relationship of the Indian southwest monsoon rainfall with El Niño- Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has weakened since around 1980. But, in contrast, only very few observational studies are reported so far to examine the relationship between ENSO and the winter precipitation over the Western Himalayas region from December to February (DJF). But there is a huge gap of modeling this phenomenon. So keeping in view of the absence of modeling studies, an attempt is made to simulate the relationship between wintertime precipitations associated with large scale global forcing of ENSO over the Western Himalayas. In the present study, RegT-Band, a tropical band version of the regional climate model RegCM4 is integrated for a set of 5 El Niño (1986-87, 1991-92, 1997-98, 2002-03, 2009-10) and 4 La Niña (1984-85, 1988-89, 1999-2000, 2007-08) years with the observed sea-surface temperature and lateral boundary condition. The domain extends from 50° S to 50° N and covers the entire tropics at a grid spacing of about 45 km, i.e. it includes lateral boundary forcing only at the southern and northern boundaries. The performance evaluation of the model in capturing the large scale fields followed by ENSO response with wintertime precipitation over the Western Himalayas region has been carried out by using National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)-Department of Energy (DOE) reanalysis 2 (NNRP2) data (2.5° x 2.5°) and Aphrodite precipitation data (0.25° x 0.25°). The model is able to delineate the mean circulation associated with ENSO over the region during DJF reasonably well and shows strong southwesterly to northwesterly wind flow, which is there in verification analysis also. The vertical structure of the low as well as upper level

  13. ENSO Simulation in CGCMs and the Associated Errors in Atmospheric Response

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    AchutaRao, K.; Sperber, K.R.

    2000-01-01

    Tropical Pacific variability, and specifically the simulation of ENSO in coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation models (CGCMs) has previously been assessed in many studies (McCreary and Anderson[1991], Neelin et al.[1992], Mechoso et al.[1995], Latif et al.[2000], and Davey et al.[2000]). These studies have concentrated on SST variations in the tropical Pacific, and discussions of the atmospheric response have been limited to east-west movements of the convergence zone. In this paper we discuss the large-scale atmospheric response to simulated ENSO events. Control simulations from 17 global CGCMs from CMIP (Meehl et al.[2000]) are studied. The web site http:// www-pcmdi.llnl.gov/cmip/modeldoc provides documentation of the configurations of the models

  14. El Nino/Southern Oscillation response to global warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Latif, M; Keenlyside, N S

    2009-12-08

    The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, originating in the Tropical Pacific, is the strongest natural interannual climate signal and has widespread effects on the global climate system and the ecology of the Tropical Pacific. Any strong change in ENSO statistics will therefore have serious climatic and ecological consequences. Most global climate models do simulate ENSO, although large biases exist with respect to its characteristics. The ENSO response to global warming differs strongly from model to model and is thus highly uncertain. Some models simulate an increase in ENSO amplitude, others a decrease, and others virtually no change. Extremely strong changes constituting tipping point behavior are not simulated by any of the models. Nevertheless, some interesting changes in ENSO dynamics can be inferred from observations and model integrations. Although no tipping point behavior is envisaged in the physical climate system, smooth transitions in it may give rise to tipping point behavior in the biological, chemical, and even socioeconomic systems. For example, the simulated weakening of the Pacific zonal sea surface temperature gradient in the Hadley Centre model (with dynamic vegetation included) caused rapid Amazon forest die-back in the mid-twenty-first century, which in turn drove a nonlinear increase in atmospheric CO(2), accelerating global warming.

  15. Long-term hydroclimatic variability in monsoon shadow zone of western Himalaya, India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yadav, Ram R.

    2011-04-01

    Tree-ring-width data of Himalayan cedar [ Cedrus deodara (Roxb.) G. Don] from 11 homogeneous moisture stressed sites in the monsoon shadow zone of the western Himalaya were used to develop a mean chronology extending back to ad 1353. The chronology developed using Regional Curve Standardization method is the first from the Himalayan region of India showing centennial-scale variations. The calibration of ring-width chronology with instrumental precipitation data available from stations close to the tree ring sampling sites showed strong, direct relationship with March-April-May-June (MAMJ) precipitation. This strong relationship was used to supplement the instrumental precipitation data back to ad 1410. The precipitation reconstruction showed extended period of drought in fifteenth and sixteenth centuries. Increasingly pluvial conditions were recorded since eighteenth century, with the highest precipitation in the early part of the nineteenth century. The decreasing trend in reconstructed precipitation in the last decade of the twentieth century, consistent with the instrumental records, is associated with the decreasing trend in frequency of western disturbances. MAMJ precipitation over the monsoon shadow zone in the western Himalaya is directly associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and NINO3-SST index of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the leading modes of climate variability influencing climate over large parts of the Northern Hemisphere. However, the relationship between ENSO and MAMJ precipitation collapsed completely during 1930-1960. The breakdown in this relationship is associated with the warm phase of Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). A spectral analysis of reconstructed MAMJ precipitation indicates frequencies in the range of the variability associated with modes of NAO, ENSO and AMO.

  16. Seasonal and inter-annual turbidity variability in the Rio de la Plata from 15 years of MODIS: El Niño dilution effect

    OpenAIRE

    Dogliotti, A.I.; Ruddick, K.; Guerrero, R.

    2016-01-01

    Spatio-temporal variability of turbidity in the Río de la Plata (RdP) estuary (Argentina) at seasonal and inter-annual timescales is analyzed from 15 years (2000–2014) of MODIS data and explained in terms of river discharges and the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Satellite estimates were first validated using in situ turbidity measurements and then the time series of monthly averages were analyzed to assess the seasonal and inter-annual variability of turbidity. A strong seasonal variab...

  17. What do we need to know to predict ENSO? Student-centered learning in a Master course in Climate Physics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lübbecke, Joke; Glessmer, Mirjam

    2017-04-01

    An important learning outcome of a Master of Sciences program is to empower students to understand which information they need, how they can gain the required knowledge and skills, and how to apply those to solve a given scientific problem. In designing a class on the El-Nino-Southern-Oscillation (ENSO) for students in the Climate Physics program at Kiel University, Germany, we have implemented various active learning strategies to meet this goal. The course is guided by an overarching question, embedded in a short story: What would we need to know to successfully predict ENSO? The students identify desired learning outcomes and collaboratively construct a concept map which then serves as a structure for the 12 weeks of the course, where each individual topic is situated in the larger context of the students' own concept map. Each learning outcome of the course is therefore directly motivated by a need to know expressed by the students themselves. During each session, students are actively involved in the learning process. They work individually or in small groups, for example testing different index definitions, analyzing data sets, setting up simple numerical models and planning and constructing hands-on experiments to demonstrate physical processes involved in the formation of El Niño events. The instructor's role is to provide the necessary background information and guide the students where it is needed. Insights are shared between groups as students present their findings to each other and combine the information, for example by cooperatively constructing a world map displaying the impacts of ENSO or by exchanging experts on different ENSO oscillator theories between groups. Development of this course was supported by the PerLe Fonds for teaching innovations at Kiel University. A preliminary evaluation has been very positive with students in particular appreciating their active involvement in the class.

  18. On the motion of non-linear oscillators with a fractional-order restoring force and time variable parameters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kovacic, Ivana

    2009-01-01

    An analytical approach to determine the approximate solution for the periodic motion of non-conservative oscillators with a fractional-order restoring force and slowly varying parameters is presented. The solution has the form of the first-order differential equation for the amplitude and phase of motion. The method used is based on the combination of the Krylov-Bogoliubov method with Hamilton's variational principle with the uncommutative rule for the variation of velocity. The conservative systems with slowly varying parameters are also considered. The corresponding adiabatic invariant is obtained. Two examples are given to illustrate derived theoretical results.

  19. Collaborative Research: Process-Resolving Decomposition of the Global Temperature Response to Modes of Low Frequency Variability in a Changing Climate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Deng, Yi [Georgia Inst. of Technology, Atlanta, GA (United States)

    2014-11-24

    DOE-GTRC-05596 11/24/2104 Collaborative Research: Process-Resolving Decomposition of the Global Temperature Response to Modes of Low Frequency Variability in a Changing Climate PI: Dr. Yi Deng (PI) School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Georgia Institute of Technology 404-385-1821, yi.deng@eas.gatech.edu El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Annular Modes (AMs) represent respectively the most important modes of low frequency variability in the tropical and extratropical circulations. The projection of future changes in the ENSO and AM variability, however, remains highly uncertain with the state-of-the-science climate models. This project conducted a process-resolving, quantitative evaluations of the ENSO and AM variability in the modern reanalysis observations and in climate model simulations. The goal is to identify and understand the sources of uncertainty and biases in models’ representation of ENSO and AM variability. Using a feedback analysis method originally formulated by one of the collaborative PIs, we partitioned the 3D atmospheric temperature anomalies and surface temperature anomalies associated with ENSO and AM variability into components linked to 1) radiation-related thermodynamic processes such as cloud and water vapor feedbacks, 2) local dynamical processes including convection and turbulent/diffusive energy transfer and 3) non-local dynamical processes such as the horizontal energy transport in the oceans and atmosphere. In the past 4 years, the research conducted at Georgia Tech under the support of this project has led to 15 peer-reviewed publications and 9 conference/workshop presentations. Two graduate students and one postdoctoral fellow also received research training through participating the project activities. This final technical report summarizes key scientific discoveries we made and provides also a list of all publications and conference presentations resulted from research activities at Georgia Tech. The main findings include

  20. Coherent tropical Indo-Pacific interannual climate variability

    OpenAIRE

    Wieners, C.E.; de Ruijter, W.P.M.; Ridderinkhof, W.; von der Heydt, A.S.; Dijkstra, H.A.

    2016-01-01

    A multichannel singular spectrum analysis (MSSA) applied simultaneously to tropical sea surface temperature (SST), zonal wind, and burstiness (zonal wind variability) reveals three significant oscillatory modes. They all show a strong ENSO signal in the eastern Pacific Ocean (PO) but also a substantial SST signal in the western Indian Ocean (IO). A correlation-based analysis shows that the western IO signal contains linearly independent information on ENSO. Of the three Indo-Pacific ENSO mode...

  1. Patterns of variability of the superficial temperatures of the sea in the Colombian Caribbean coast

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bernal, Gladys; Poveda, German; Roldan, Paola; Andrade, Carlos

    2006-01-01

    The space - time variability of sea surface temperature (SST) along the Colombian coastal Caribbean zone was analyzed with monthly time series spanning the period 1982- 2000. Analyses included the spatial variability associated with the annual cycle, and inter annual time scales associated with el Nino southern oscillation (ENSO), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), as well as long-term trends. Analyses were included to study two tropical low-level atmospheric jets affecting the climatology of the northwestern corner of South America (the so-called Choco and San Andres low level jets). Two separate regions have been found along the Caribbean sea to exhibit quite different climatic behavior: the southwestern region with a warm pool directly related to panama Colombia gyre, and the northeastern region with a cold pool related to the Guajira upwelling system

  2. Matter density versus distance for the neutrino beam from Fermilab to Lead, South Dakota, and comparison of oscillations with variable and constant density

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roe, Byron

    2017-06-01

    This paper is divided into two parts. In the first part, the material densities passed through for neutrinos going from FNAL to Sanford Laboratory are calculated using two recent density tables, Crustal [G. Laske, G. Masters, Z. Ma, and M. Pasyanos, Update on CRUST1.0—A 1-degree global model of Earth's crust, Geophys. Res. Abstracts 15, EGU2013-2658 (2013),; For the programs and tables, see the website: http://igppweb.ucsd.edu/ gabi/crust1.html.] and Shen-Ritzwoller [W. Shen and M. H. Ritzwoller, Crustal and uppermost mantle structure beneath the United States, J. Geophys. Res.: Solid Earth 121, 4306 (2016)], as well as the values from an older table PEMC [A. M. Dziewonski, A. L. Hales, and E. R. Lapwood, Parametrically simple earth models consistent with geophysical data, Phys. Earth Plan. Int. 10, 12 (1975); For further information see the website: http://ds.iris.edu/ds/products/emc-pem/.]. In the second part, neutrino oscillations at Sanford Laboratory are examined for the variable density table of Shen-Ritzwoller. These results are then compared with oscillation results using the mean density from the Shen-Ritzwoller tables and with one other fixed density. For the tests made here, the mean density results are quite similar to the results using the variable density vs distance.

  3. Modes of ocean variability in the tropical Pacific as derived from GEOSAT altimetry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zou Jiansheng

    1993-01-01

    Satellite-derived (GEOSAT) sea surface height anomalies for the period November 1986 to August 1989 were investigated in order to extract the dominant modes of climate variability in the tropical Pacific. Four modes are identified by applying the POP technique. The first mode has a time scale of about 3 months and can be identified with the first baroclinic equatorial Kelvin wave mode. The second mode has a time scale of about six months and describes the semi-annual cycle in tropical Pacific sea level. Equatorial wave propagation is also crucial for this mode. The third mode is the annual cycle which is dominated by Ekman dynamics. Wave propagation or reflection are found to be unimportant. The fourth mode is associated with the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. The ENSO mode is found to be consistent with the 'delayed action oscillator' scenario. The results are substantiated by a companion analysis of the sea surface height variability simulated with an oceanic general circulation model (OGCM) forced by observed wind stresses for the period 1961 to 1989. The modal decomposition of the sea level variability is found to be similar to that derived from the GEOSAT data. The high consistency between the satellite and the model data indicates the high potential value of satellite altimetry for climate modeling and forecasting. (orig.)

  4. Characterization of extreme flood and drought events in Singapore and investigation of their relationships with ENSO

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Xin; Babovic, Vladan

    2016-04-01

    Flood and drought are hydrologic extreme events that have significant impact on human and natural systems. Characterization of flood and drought in terms of their start, duration and strength, and investigation of the impact of natural climate variability (i.e., ENSO) and anthropogenic climate change on them can help decision makers to facilitate adaptions to mitigate potential enormous economic costs. To date, numerous studies in this area have been conducted, however, they are primarily focused on extra-tropical regions. Therefore, this study presented a detailed framework to characterize flood and drought events in a tropical urban city-state (i.e., Singapore), based on daily data from 26 precipitation stations. Flood and drought events are extracted from standardized precipitation anomalies from monthly to seasonal time scales. Frequency, duration and magnitude of flood and drought at all the stations are analyzed based on crossing theory. In addition, spatial variation of flood and drought characteristics in Singapore is investigated using ordinary kriging method. Lastly, the impact of ENSO condition on flood and drought characteristics is analyzed using regional regression method. The results show that Singapore can be prone to extreme flood and drought events at both monthly and seasonal time scales. ENSO has significant influence on flood and drought characteristics in Singapore, but mainly during the South West Monsoon season. During the El Niño phase, drought can become more extreme. The results have implications for water management practices in Singapore.

  5. The association between El Niño/Southern Oscillation events and typhoons in the Marshall Islands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spennemann, D H; Marschner, I C

    1995-09-01

    An analysis of the historic record of typhoons in the Marshall Islands has identified a significant association between the occurrence of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation phenomenon (ENSO) and the occurrence of typhoons in the Marshall Islands. Whilst typhoons normally occur further to the east, the warming of the ocean waters around the Marshall Islands, as part of the ENSO phenomenon, generates typhoons further to the west. The results suggest that typhoons are 2.6 times more likely to occur during ENSO years, with a 71 per cent chance of a typhoon striking during an ENSO year, and only a 26 per cent chance of one happening during a non-ENSO year. This has implications for planning and public safety, which the relevant authorities may wish to take note of.

  6. Synchronization of hyperchaotic oscillators

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tamasevicius, A.; Cenys, A.; Mykolaitis, G.

    1997-01-01

    Synchronization of chaotic oscillators is believed to have promising applications in secure communications. Hyperchaotic systems with multiple positive Lyapunov exponents (LEs) have an advantage over common chaotic systems with only one positive LE. Three different types of hyperchaotic electronic...... oscillators are investigated demonstrating synchronization by means of only one properly selected variable....

  7. Impact of global warming on ENSO phase change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W. Cabos Narvaez

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available We compare the physical mechanisms involved in the generation and decay of ENSO events in a control (present day conditions and Scenario (Is92a, IPCC 1996 simulations performed with the coupled ocean-atmosphere GCM ECHAM4-OPYC3. A clustering technique which objectively discriminates common features in the evolution of the Tropical Pacific Heat Content anomalies leading to the peak of ENSO events allows us to group into a few classes the ENSO events occurring in 240 years of data in the control and scenario runs. In both simulations, the composites of the groups show differences in the generation and development of ENSO. We present the changes in the statistics of the groups and explore the possible mechanisms involved.

  8. Change of ENSO characteristics in response to global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, X.; Xia, Y.; Yan, Y.; Feng, W.; Huang, F.; Yang, X. Q.

    2017-12-01

    By using datasets of HadISST monthly SST from 1895 to 2014 and 600-year simulations of two CESM model experiments with/without doubling of CO2 concentration, ENSO characteristics are compared pre- and post- global warming. The main results are as follows. Due to global warming, the maximum climatological SST warming occurs in the tropical western Pacific (La Niña-like background warming) and the tropical eastern Pacific (El Niño-like background warming) for observations and model, respectively, resulting in opposite zonal SST gradient anomalies in the tropical Pacific. The La Niña-like background warming induces intense surface divergence in the tropical central Pacific, which enhances the easterly trade winds in the tropical central-western Pacific and shifts the strongest ocean-atmosphere coupling westward, correspondingly. On the contrary, the El Niño-like background warming causes westerly winds in the whole tropical Pacific and moves the strongest ocean-atmosphere coupling eastward. Under the La Niña-like background warming, ENSO tends to develop and mature in the tropical central Pacific, because the background easterly wind anomaly weakens the ENSO-induced westerly wind anomaly in the tropical western Pacific, leading to the so-called "Central Pacific ENSO (CP ENSO)". However, the so-called "Eastern Pacific ENSO (EP ENSO)" is likely formed due to increased westerly wind anomaly by the El Niño-like background warming. ENSO lifetime is significantly extended under both the El Niño-like and the La Niña-like background warmings, and especially, it can be prolonged by up to 3 months in the situation of El Niño-like background warming. The prolonged El Nino lifetime mainly applies to extreme El Niño events, which is caused by earlier outbreak of the westerly wind bursts, shallower climatological thermocline depth and weaker "discharge" rate of the ENSO warm signal in response to global warming. Results from both observations and the model also show that

  9. Spatial Patterns of Variability in Antarctic Surface Temperature: Connections to the Southern Hemisphere Annular Mode and the Southern Oscillation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kwok, Ron; Comiso, Josefino C.; Koblinsky, Chester J. (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    The 17-year (1982-1998) trend in surface temperature shows a general cooling over the Antarctic continent, warming of the sea ice zone, with moderate changes over the oceans. Warming of the peripheral seas is associated with negative trends in the regional sea ice extent. Effects of the Southern Hemisphere Annular Mode (SAM) and the extrapolar Southern Oscillation (SO) on surface temperature are quantified through regression analysis. Positive polarities of the SAM are associated with cold anomalies over most of Antarctica, with the most notable exception of the Antarctic Peninsula. Positive temperature anomalies and ice edge retreat in the Pacific sector are associated with El Nino episodes. Over the past two decades, the drift towards high polarity in the SAM and negative polarity in the SO indices couple to produce a spatial pattern with warmer temperatures in the Antarctic Peninsula and peripheral seas, and cooler temperatures over much of East Antarctica.

  10. Massive bleaching of coral reefs induced by the 2010 ENSO, Puerto Cabello, Venezuela.

    Science.gov (United States)

    del Mónaco, Carlos; Haiek, Gerard; Narciso, Samuel; Galindo, Miguel

    2012-06-01

    El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has generated global coral massive bleaching. The aim of this work was to evaluate the massive bleaching of coral reefs in Puerto Cabello, Venezuela derived from ENSO 2010. We evaluated the bleaching of reefs at five localities both at three and five meter depth. The coral cover and densities of colonies were estimated. We recorded living coral cover, number and diameter of bleached and non-bleached colonies of each coral species. The colonies were classified according to the proportion of bleached area. Satellite images (Modis Scar) were analyzed for chlorophyll-a concentration and temperature in August, September, October and November from 2008-2010. Precipitation, wind speed and air temperature information was evaluated in meteorological data for 2009 and 2010. A total of 58.3% of colonies, belonging to 11 hexacoral species, were affected and the greatest responses were observed in Colpophyllia natans, Montastraea annularis and Montastraeafaveolata. The most affected localities were closer to the mainland and had a bleached proportion up to 62.73+/-36.55%, with the highest proportion of affected colonies, whereas the farthest locality showed 20.25+/-14.00% bleached and the smallest proportion. The salinity in situ varied between 30 and 33ppm and high levels of turbidity were observed. According to the satellite images, in 2010 the surface water temperature reached 31 degree C in August, September and October, and resulted higher than those registered in 2008 and 2009. Regionally, chlorophyll values were higher in 2010 than in 2008 and 2009. The meteorological data indicated that precipitation in November 2010 was three times higher than in November 2009. Massive coral bleaching occurred due to a three month period of high temperatures followed by one month of intense ENSO-associated precipitation. However, this latter factor was likely the trigger because of the bleaching gradient observed.

  11. Tropospheric Column Ozone Response to ENSO in GEOS-5 Assimilation of OMI and MLS Ozone Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olsen, Mark A.; Wargan, Krzysztof; Pawson, Steven

    2016-01-01

    We use GEOS-5 analyses of Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) and Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) ozone observations to investigate the magnitude and spatial distribution of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influence on tropospheric column ozone (TCO) into the middle latitudes. This study provides the first explicit spatially resolved characterization of the ENSO influence and demonstrates coherent patterns and teleconnections impacting the TCO in the extratropics. The response is evaluated and characterized by both the variance explained and sensitivity of TCO to the Nino 3.4 index. The tropospheric response in the tropics agrees well with previous studies and verifies the analyses. A two-lobed response symmetric about the Equator in the western Pacific/Indonesian region seen in some prior studies and not in others is confirmed here. This two-lobed response is consistent with the large-scale vertical transport. We also find that the large-scale transport in the tropics dominates the response compared to the small-scale convective transport. The ozone response is weaker in the middle latitudes, but a significant explained variance of the TCO is found over several small regions, including the central United States. However, the sensitivity of TCO to the Nino 3.4 index is statistically significant over a large area of the middle latitudes. The sensitivity maxima and minima coincide with anomalous anti-cyclonic and cyclonic circulations where the associated vertical transport is consistent with the sign of the sensitivity. Also, ENSO related changes to the mean tropopause height can contribute significantly to the midlatitude response. Comparisons to a 22-year chemical transport model simulation demonstrate that these results from the 9- year assimilation are representative of the longer term. This investigation brings insight to several seemingly disparate prior studies of the El Nino influence on tropospheric ozone in the middle latitudes.

  12. Vegetation anomalies associated with the ENSO phenomenon in the Cauca river valley, Colombia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. M. Valencia

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The main factors affecting the production and yield of sugarcane are variety, agronomic management, soil type and climate, of which the first three there is some control, while the climate is one factor of which you cannot have any control, therefore, it should be monitored. Colombia, being located in the equatorial pacific, is affected by two atmospheric oceanic phenomena known as “El Niño” and “La Niña”, which make up the climatic phenomenon of ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation and affect the quantity and the number of days with rainfall and influences the production of sugarcane. The objective of this work is to identify spatially and temporally the zones with greater and lower impact of the ENSO phenomenon in the cultivation of sugarcane in Colombia through the use of the Standard Vegetation Index (SVI and the Rainfall Anomally Index (RAI using EVI/MODIS images and precipitation data from meteorological stations on a quarterly basis for the period 2000-2015. A similar trend was found between both indices in the “El Niño” and “Neutral” seasons, while in the “La Niña” season the RAI tended to rise while the SVI decreased when the RAI was very high, this tendency being much more marked in areas with floods caused by the overflow of the main rivers. In addition, a comparison was made between the SVI index and a productivity anomaly index (IAP, finding a direct correlation between both (R2 = 0.4, p<0.001. This work showed that through the use of vegetation indexes, a temporal analysis of the impact of climate on an agricultural crop can be carried out, especially with ENSO conditions.

  13. The Anticipation of the ENSO: What Resonantly Forced Baroclinic Waves Can Teach Us (Part II

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jean-Louis Pinault

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of the paper is to take advantage of recent work on the study of resonantly forced baroclinic waves in the tropical Pacific to significantly reduce systematic and random forecasting errors resulting from the current statistical models intended to predict El Niño. Their major drawback is that sea surface temperature (SST, which is widely used, is very difficult to decipher because of the extreme complexity of exchanges at the ocean-atmosphere interface. In contrast, El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO forecasting can be performed between 7 and 8 months in advance precisely and very simply from (1 the subsurface water temperature at particular locations and (2 the time lag of the events (their expected date of occurrence compared to a regular 4-year cycle. Discrimination of precursor signals from objective criteria prevents the anticipation of wrong events, as occurred in 2012 and 2014. The amplitude of the events, their date of appearance, as well as their potential impact on the involved regions are estimated. Three types of ENSO events characterize their climate impact according to whether they are (1 unlagged or weakly lagged, (2 strongly lagged, or (3 out of phase with the annual quasi-stationary wave (QSW (Central Pacific El Niño events. This substantial progress is based on the analysis of baroclinic QSWs in the tropical basin and the resulting genesis of ENSO events. As for cold events, the amplification of La Niña can be seen a few months before the maturation phase of an El Niño event, as occurred in 1998 and 2016.

  14. Significant influences of global mean temperature and ENSO on extreme rainfall over Southeast Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Villafuerte, Marcelino, II; Matsumoto, Jun

    2014-05-01

    Along with the increasing concerns on the consequences of global warming, and the accumulating records of disaster related to heavy rainfall events in Southeast Asia, this study investigates whether a direct link can be detected between the rising global mean temperature, as well as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and extreme rainfall over the region. The maximum likelihood modeling that allows incorporating covariates on the location parameter of the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution is employed. The GEV model is fitted to annual and seasonal rainfall extremes, which were taken from a high-resolution gauge-based gridded daily precipitation data covering a span of 57 years (1951-2007). Nonstationarities in extreme rainfall are detected over the central parts of Indochina Peninsula, eastern coasts of central Vietnam, northwest of the Sumatra Island, inland portions of Borneo Island, and on the northeastern and southwestern coasts of the Philippines. These nonstationarities in extreme rainfall are directly linked to near-surface global mean temperature and ENSO. In particular, the study reveals that a kelvin increase in global mean temperature anomaly can lead to an increase of 30% to even greater than 45% in annual maximum 1-day rainfall, which were observed pronouncedly over central Vietnam, southern coast of Myanmar, northwestern sections of Thailand, northwestern tip of Sumatra, central portions of Malaysia, and the Visayas island in central Philippines. Furthermore, a pronounced ENSO influence manifested on the seasonal maximum 1-day rainfall; a northward progression of 10%-15% drier condition over Southeast Asia as the El Niño develops from summer to winter is revealed. It is important therefore, to consider the results obtained here for water resources management as well as for adaptation planning to minimize the potential adverse impact of global warming, particularly on extreme rainfall and its associated flood risk over the region

  15. Tropospheric column ozone response to ENSO in GEOS-5 assimilation of OMI and MLS ozone data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. A. Olsen

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available We use GEOS-5 analyses of Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI and Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS ozone observations to investigate the magnitude and spatial distribution of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO influence on tropospheric column ozone (TCO into the middle latitudes. This study provides the first explicit spatially resolved characterization of the ENSO influence and demonstrates coherent patterns and teleconnections impacting the TCO in the extratropics. The response is evaluated and characterized by both the variance explained and sensitivity of TCO to the Niño 3.4 index. The tropospheric response in the tropics agrees well with previous studies and verifies the analyses. A two-lobed response symmetric about the Equator in the western Pacific/Indonesian region seen in some prior studies and not in others is confirmed here. This two-lobed response is consistent with the large-scale vertical transport. We also find that the large-scale transport in the tropics dominates the response compared to the small-scale convective transport. The ozone response is weaker in the middle latitudes, but a significant explained variance of the TCO is found over several small regions, including the central United States. However, the sensitivity of TCO to the Niño 3.4 index is statistically significant over a large area of the middle latitudes. The sensitivity maxima and minima coincide with anomalous anti-cyclonic and cyclonic circulations where the associated vertical transport is consistent with the sign of the sensitivity. Also, ENSO related changes to the mean tropopause height can contribute significantly to the midlatitude response. Comparisons to a 22-year chemical transport model simulation demonstrate that these results from the 9-year assimilation are representative of the longer term. This investigation brings insight to several seemingly disparate prior studies of the El Niño influence on tropospheric ozone in the middle latitudes.

  16. A Stalagmite record of Holocene Indonesian-Australian summer monsoon variability from the Australian tropics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Denniston, Rhawn F.; Wyrwoll, Karl-Heinz; Polyak, Victor J.; Brown, Josephine R.; Asmerom, Yemane; Wanamaker, Alan D.; LaPointe, Zachary; Ellerbroek, Rebecca; Barthelmes, Michael; Cleary, Daniel; Cugley, John; Woods, David; Humphreys, William F.

    2013-10-01

    Oxygen isotopic data from a suite of calcite and aragonite stalagmites from cave KNI-51, located in the eastern Kimberley region of tropical Western Australia, represent the first absolute-dated, high-resolution speleothem record of the Holocene Indonesian-Australian summer monsoon (IASM) from the Australian tropics. Stalagmite oxygen isotopic values track monsoon intensity via amount effects in precipitation and reveal a dynamic Holocene IASM which strengthened in the early Holocene, decreased in strength by 4 ka, with a further decrease from ˜2 to 1 ka, before strengthening again at 1 ka to years to levels similar to those between 4 and 2 ka. The relationships between the KNI-51 IASM reconstruction and those from published speleothem time series from Flores and Borneo, in combination with other data sets, appear largely inconsistent with changes in the position and/or organization of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). Instead, we argue that the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) may have played a dominant role in driving IASM variability since at least the middle Holocene. Given the muted modern monsoon rainfall responses to most El Niño events in the Kimberley, an impact of ENSO on regional monsoon precipitation over northwestern Australia would suggest non-stationarity in the long-term relationship between ENSO forcing and IASM rainfall, possibly due to changes in the mean state of the tropical Pacific over the Holocene.

  17. Multi-decadal modulation of the El Nino-Indian monsoon relationship by Indian Ocean variability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ummenhofer, Caroline C; Sen Gupta, Alexander; Li Yue; Taschetto, Andrea S; England, Matthew H

    2011-01-01

    The role of leading modes of Indo-Pacific climate variability is investigated for modulation of the strength of the Indian summer monsoon during the period 1877-2006. In particular, the effect of Indian Ocean conditions on the relationship between the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian monsoon is explored. Using an extended classification for ENSO and Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) events for the past 130 years and reanalyses, we have expanded previous interannual work to show that variations in Indian Ocean conditions modulate the ENSO-Indian monsoon relationship also on decadal timescales. El Nino events are frequently accompanied by a significantly reduced Indian monsoon and widespread drought conditions due to anomalous subsidence associated with a shift in the descending branch of the zonal Walker circulation. However, for El Nino events that co-occur with positive IOD (pIOD) events, Indian Ocean conditions act to counter El Nino's drought-inducing subsidence by enhancing moisture convergence over the Indian subcontinent, with an average monsoon season resulting. Decadal modulations of the frequency of independent and combined El Nino and pIOD events are consistent with a strengthened El Nino-Indian monsoon relationship observed at the start of the 20th century and the apparent recent weakening of the El Nino-Indian monsoon relationship.

  18. Multi-decadal modulation of the El Nino-Indian monsoon relationship by Indian Ocean variability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ummenhofer, Caroline C; Sen Gupta, Alexander; Li Yue; Taschetto, Andrea S; England, Matthew H, E-mail: c.ummenhofer@unsw.edu.au [Climate Change Research Centre, University of New South Wales, Sydney (Australia)

    2011-07-15

    The role of leading modes of Indo-Pacific climate variability is investigated for modulation of the strength of the Indian summer monsoon during the period 1877-2006. In particular, the effect of Indian Ocean conditions on the relationship between the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian monsoon is explored. Using an extended classification for ENSO and Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) events for the past 130 years and reanalyses, we have expanded previous interannual work to show that variations in Indian Ocean conditions modulate the ENSO-Indian monsoon relationship also on decadal timescales. El Nino events are frequently accompanied by a significantly reduced Indian monsoon and widespread drought conditions due to anomalous subsidence associated with a shift in the descending branch of the zonal Walker circulation. However, for El Nino events that co-occur with positive IOD (pIOD) events, Indian Ocean conditions act to counter El Nino's drought-inducing subsidence by enhancing moisture convergence over the Indian subcontinent, with an average monsoon season resulting. Decadal modulations of the frequency of independent and combined El Nino and pIOD events are consistent with a strengthened El Nino-Indian monsoon relationship observed at the start of the 20th century and the apparent recent weakening of the El Nino-Indian monsoon relationship.

  19. OBSERVATIONS OF FIVE-MINUTE SOLAR OSCILLATIONS IN THE CORONA USING THE EXTREME ULTRAVIOLET SPECTROPHOTOMETER (ESP) ON BOARD THE SOLAR DYNAMICS OBSERVATORY EXTREME ULTRAVIOLET VARIABILITY EXPERIMENT (SDO/EVE)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Didkovsky, L.; Judge, D.; Wieman, S.; Kosovichev, A. G.; Woods, T.

    2011-01-01

    We report on the detection of oscillations in the corona in the frequency range corresponding to five-minute acoustic modes of the Sun. The oscillations have been observed using soft X-ray measurements from the Extreme Ultraviolet Spectrophotometer (ESP) of the Extreme Ultraviolet Variability Experiment on board the Solar Dynamics Observatory. The ESP zeroth-order channel observes the Sun as a star without spatial resolution in the wavelength range of 0.1-7.0 nm (the energy range is 0.18-12.4 keV). The amplitude spectrum of the oscillations calculated from six-day time series shows a significant increase in the frequency range of 2-4 mHz. We interpret this increase as a response of the corona to solar acoustic (p) modes and attempt to identify p-mode frequencies among the strongest peaks. Due to strong variability of the amplitudes and frequencies of the five-minute oscillations in the corona, we study how the spectrum from two adjacent six-day time series combined together affects the number of peaks associated with the p-mode frequencies and their amplitudes. This study shows that five-minute oscillations of the Sun can be observed in the corona in variations of the soft X-ray emission. Further investigations of these oscillations may improve our understanding of the interaction of the oscillation modes with the solar atmosphere, and the interior-corona coupling, in general.

  20. Exploratory Long-Range Models to Estimate Summer Climate Variability over Southern Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jury, Mark R.; Mulenga, Henry M.; Mason, Simon J.

    1999-07-01

    Teleconnection predictors are explored using multivariate regression models in an effort to estimate southern African summer rainfall and climate impacts one season in advance. The preliminary statistical formulations include many variables influenced by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) such as tropical sea surface temperatures (SST) in the Indian and Atlantic Oceans. Atmospheric circulation responses to ENSO include the alternation of tropical zonal winds over Africa and changes in convective activity within oceanic monsoon troughs. Numerous hemispheric-scale datasets are employed to extract predictors and include global indexes (Southern Oscillation index and quasi-biennial oscillation), SST principal component scores for the global oceans, indexes of tropical convection (outgoing longwave radiation), air pressure, and surface and upper winds over the Indian and Atlantic Oceans. Climatic targets include subseasonal, area-averaged rainfall over South Africa and the Zambezi river basin, and South Africa's annual maize yield. Predictors and targets overlap in the years 1971-93, the defined training period. Each target time series is fitted by an optimum group of predictors from the preceding spring, in a linear multivariate formulation. To limit artificial skill, predictors are restricted to three, providing 17 degrees of freedom. Models with colinear predictors are screened out, and persistence of the target time series is considered. The late summer rainfall models achieve a mean r2 fit of 72%, contributed largely through ENSO modulation. Early summer rainfall cross validation correlations are lower (61%). A conceptual understanding of the climate dynamics and ocean-atmosphere coupling processes inherent in the exploratory models is outlined.Seasonal outlooks based on the exploratory models could help mitigate the impacts of southern Africa's fluctuating climate. It is believed that an advance warning of drought risk and seasonal rainfall prospects will

  1. El Niño revisited: the influence of El Niño Southern Oscillation on the world's largest tuna fisheries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Receveur, A.; Simon, N.; Menkes, C.; Tremblay-Boyer, L.; Senina, I.; Lehodey, P.

    2016-12-01

    El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) drives global climate on inter-annual scales and impacts the ecosystem structure in the warm-pool and cold-tongue of the Pacific Ocean. During the El Niño phase of ENSO, the warm-pool can stretch from the western equatorial Pacific to the eastern Pacific allowing species associated with the warm-pool to correspondingly spread eastwards. Conversely, during the la Niña phase the warm-pool is pushed to the far western equatorial Pacific by the cold-tongue allowing species associated with this ecosystem to spread westwards. Consequently, ENSO dynamics are likely to be critical for understanding the ecological processes supporting fisheries in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Surface inhabiting tuna, such as skipjack, are thought to track the convergence of the warm-pool and cold-tongue with fishing vessels tracking this tuna behavior. Given the reliance of Pacific Island economies on tuna fisheries, knowing when tunas are more likely to be present in high density in their territorial waters is beneficial for harvest control policies such as effort trading between nations. We use the SEAPODYM model to investigate the response of bigeye and skipjack tuna species to the phases of ENSO. SEAPODYM is an age structured model that integrates fisheries dependent and independent data with environmental data. We analyze the outputs of SEAPODYM using wavelets to assess the impact of environmental and biotic variables on the abundance and distribution of adult and juvenile age classes and to study time series cycle and temporal lags to ENSO. The main result for skipjack is the eastward or westward movement of the biomass pattern which is significantly lagged with the warm pool ENSO displacement. That lag ranges from 8 months for juvenile up to 18 months for adults. Such delayed response, can be traced in the model. Higher temperature in the central Pacific during El Niño leads to better recruitment which leads to lagged increase of juvenile

  2. Robustness of observation-based decadal sea level variability in the Indo-Pacific Ocean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nidheesh, A. G.; Lengaigne, M.; Vialard, J.; Izumo, T.; Unnikrishnan, A. S.; Meyssignac, B.; Hamlington, B.; de Boyer Montegut, C.

    2017-07-01

    We examine the consistency of Indo-Pacific decadal sea level variability in 10 gridded, observation-based sea level products for the 1960-2010 period. Decadal sea level variations are robust in the Pacific, with more than 50% of variance explained by decadal modulation of two flavors of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (classical ENSO and Modoki). Amplitude of decadal sea level variability is weaker in the Indian Ocean than in the Pacific. All data sets indicate a transmission of decadal sea level signals from the western Pacific to the northwest Australian coast through the Indonesian throughflow. The southern tropical Indian Ocean sea level variability is associated with decadal modulations of ENSO in reconstructions but not in reanalyses or in situ data set. The Pacific-independent Indian Ocean decadal sea level variability is not robust but tends to be maximum in the southwestern tropical Indian Ocean. The inconsistency of Indian Ocean decadal variability across the sea level products calls for caution in making definitive conclusions on decadal sea level variability in this basin.

  3. Potential role of resurfacing Subtropical Underwater in ENSO evolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qu, T.; Chi, J.

    2017-12-01

    Results from a model of the Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean (ECCO) have shown that the resurfacing of high salinity Subtropical Underwater contributes to the sea surface salinity variability in the equatorial Pacific. On interannual time scale, this contribution can account for as much as 25% of the surface freshwater flux anomalies and is believed to play a role in ENSO evolution. Having these results in mind, this study investigates the surface salinity budget and its primary controls in the equatorial Pacific using ECCO output for the period 1993-2016. Particular attention is paid to 2014/2015 and 2015/2016. Preliminary analyses of the model results suggest that enhanced subsurface processes and in particular enhanced entrainment of Subtropical Underwater are primarily responsible for the positive sea surface salinity anomalies in the central equatorial Pacific during 2014/2015, which represents an opposite phase of El Niño. These subsurface processes weakened during 2015/2016, diretly contributing to the development of the 2015/2016 El Niño. The mechanisms controlling these subsurface processes are discussed.

  4. Tropical Pacific climate variability over the last 6000 years as recorded in Bainbridge Crater Lake, Galápagos

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, Diane M.; Conroy, Jessica L.; Collins, Aaron; Hlohowskyj, Stephan R.; Overpeck, Jonathan T.; Riedinger-Whitmore, Melanie; Cole, Julia E.; Bush, Mark B.; Whitney, H.; Corley, Timothy L.; Kannan, Miriam Steinitz

    2017-08-01

    Finely laminated sediments within Bainbridge Crater Lake, Galápagos, provide a record of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events over the Holocene. Despite the importance of this sediment record, hypotheses for how climate variability is preserved in the lake sediments have not been tested. Here we present results of long-term monitoring of the local climate and limnology and a revised interpretation of the sediment record. Brown-green, organic-rich, siliciclastic laminae reflect warm, wet conditions typical of El Niño events, whereas carbonate and gypsum precipitate during cool, dry La Niña events and persistent dry periods, respectively. Applying this new interpretation, we find that ENSO events of both phases were generally less frequent during the mid-Holocene ( 6100-4000 calendar years B.P.) relative to the last 1500 calendar years. Abundant carbonate laminations between 3500 and 3000 calendar years B.P. imply that conditions in the Galápagos region were cool and dry during this period when the tropical Pacific E-W sea surface temperature (SST) gradient likely strengthened. The frequency of El Niño and La Niña events then intensified dramatically around 1750-2000 calendar years B.P., consistent with a weaker SST gradient and an increased frequency of ENSO events in other regional records. This strong interannual variability persisted until 700 calendar years B.P., when ENSO-related variability at the lake decreased as the SST gradient strengthened. Persistent, dry conditions then dominated between 300 and 50 calendar years B.P. (A.D. 1650-1900, ± 100 years), whereas wetter conditions and frequent El Niño events dominated in the most recent century.

  5. Leading El-Niño SST Oscillations around the Southern South American Continent

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yu-Chen Hsu

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available The inter-annual variations in the sea surface temperatures (SSTs of the tropical and subtropical Pacific Ocean have been widely investigated, largely due to their importance in achieving the sustainable development of marine ecosystems under a changing climate. The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO is a widely recognized variability. In the subpolar region in the southern hemisphere, the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC is one of the main sources of the Peru Current. A change in the SST in the Southern Ocean may change the physical properties of the seawater in the tropical and subtropical Pacific Ocean. However, the variations in the SST in the Southern Ocean have rarely been addressed. This study uses a 147-year (1870–2016 dataset from the Met Office Hadley Centre to show that the SST anomalies (SSTAs in the oceans west and east of South America and the Antarctic Peninsula have strong positive (R = 0.56 and negative (R = −0.67 correlations with the Niño 3.4 SSTA, respectively. Such correlations are likely related to the changes in circulations of the ACC. We further show that, statistically, the temporal variations in the SSTAs of the ACC lead the Niño 3.4 SSTA by four to six months. Such findings imply that change in the strength of ENSO or circulation under the changing climate could change the climate in regions at higher latitudes as well.

  6. El Niño-Southern Oscillation and water resources in the headwaters region of the Yellow River: links and potential for forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Lü

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available This research explores the rainfall-El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO and runoff-ENSO relationships and examines the potential for water resource forecasting using these relationships. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI, Niño1.2, Niño3, Niño4, and Niño3.4 were selected as ENSO indicators for cross-correlation analyses of precipitation and runoff. There was a significant correlation (95% confidence level between precipitation and ENSO indicators during three periods: January, March, and from September to November. In addition, monthly streamflow and monthly ENSO indictors were significantly correlated during three periods: from January to March, June, and from October to December (OND, with lag periods between one and twelve months. Because ENSO events can be accurately predicted one to two years in advance using physical modeling of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system, the lead time for forecasting runoff using ENSO indicators in the Headwaters Region of the Yellow River could extend from one to 36 months. Therefore, ENSO may have potential as a powerful forecasting tool for water resources in the headwater regions of Yellow River.

  7. Coastal oceanic climate change and variability from 1982 to 2009 ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is significantly positively correlated at a 95% level with the southern Benguela and South Coast from February to May, and negatively correlated with the Agulhas Current system south of 36° S. The correlation with the Antarctic Annular Oscillation is weaker and less coherent. El Niño ...

  8. NON-RADIAL OSCILLATIONS IN M-GIANT SEMI-REGULAR VARIABLES: STELLAR MODELS AND KEPLER OBSERVATIONS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stello, Dennis; Compton, Douglas L.; Bedding, Timothy R.; Kiss, Laszlo L.; Bellamy, Beau [Sydney Institute for Astronomy (SIfA), School of Physics, University of Sydney, NSW 2006 (Australia); Christensen-Dalsgaard, Jørgen; Kjeldsen, Hans [Stellar Astrophysics Centre, Department of Physics and Astronomy, Aarhus University, Ny Munkegade 120, DK-8000 Aarhus C (Denmark); García, Rafael A. [Laboratoire AIM, CEA/DSM-CNRS, Université Paris 7 Diderot, IRFU/SAp, Centre de Saclay, F-91191 Gif-sur-Yvette (France); Mathur, Savita, E-mail: stello@physics.usyd.edu.au [Space Science Institute, 4750 Walnut Street, Suite 205, Boulder, CO 80301 (United States)

    2014-06-10

    The success of asteroseismology relies heavily on our ability to identify the frequency patterns of stellar oscillation modes. For stars like the Sun this is relatively easy because the mode frequencies follow a regular pattern described by a well-founded asymptotic relation. When a solar-like star evolves off the main sequence and onto the red giant branch its structure changes dramatically, resulting in changes in the frequency pattern of the modes. We follow the evolution of the adiabatic frequency pattern from the main sequence to near the tip of the red giant branch for a series of models. We find a significant departure from the asymptotic relation for the non-radial modes near the red giant branch tip, resulting in a triplet frequency pattern. To support our investigation we analyze almost four years of Kepler data of the most luminous stars in the field (late K and early M type) and find that their frequency spectra indeed show a triplet pattern dominated by dipole modes even for the most luminous stars in our sample. Our identification explains previous results from ground-based observations reporting fine structure in the Petersen diagram and sub-ridges in the period-luminosity diagram. Finally, we find ''new ridges'' of non-radial modes with frequencies below the fundamental mode in our model calculations, and we speculate they are related to f modes.

  9. Quantitative assessment of drivers of recent climate variability

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bhaskar, Ankush; Ramesh, Durbha Sai; Vichare, Geeta

    2016-01-01

    Identification and quantification of possible drivers of recent climate variability remain a challenging task. This important issue is addressed adopting a non-parametric information theory technique, the Transfer Entropy and its normalized variant. It distinctly quantifies actual information...... exchanged along with the directional flow of information between any two variables with no bearing on their common history or inputs, unlike correlation, mutual information etc. Measurements of greenhouse gases, CO2, CH4, and N2O; volcanic aerosols; solar activity: UV radiation, total solar irradiance (TSI...... ) and cosmic ray flux (CR); El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Global Mean Temperature Anomaly (GMTA) made during 1984-2005 are utilized to distinguish driving and responding climate signals. Estimates of their relative contributions reveal that CO 2 (~24%), CH 4 (~19%) and volcanic aerosols (~23...

  10. Integrating interannual climate variability forecasts into weather-indexed crop insurance. The case of Malawi, Kenya and Tanzania

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vicarelli, M.; Giannini, A.; Osgood, D.

    2009-12-01

    In this study we explore the potential for re-insurance schemes built on regional climatic forecasts. We focus on micro-insurance contracts indexed on precipitation in 9 villages in Kenya, Tanzania (Eastern Africa) and Malawi (Southern Africa), and analyze the precipitation patterns and payouts resulting from El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The inability to manage future climate risk represents a “poverty trap” for several African regions. Weather shocks can potentially destabilize not only household, but also entire countries. Governments in drought-prone countries, donors and relief agencies are becoming aware of the importance to develop an ex-ante risk management framework for weather risk. Joint efforts to develop innovative mechanisms to spread and pool risk such as microinsurance and microcredit are currently being designed in several developing countries. While ENSO is an important component in modulating the rainfall regime in tropical Africa, the micro-insurance experiments currently under development to address drought risk among smallholder farmers in this region do not take into account ENSO monitoring or forecasting yet. ENSO forecasts could be integrated in the contracts and reinsurance schemes could be designed at the continental scale taking advantage of the different impact of ENSO on different regions. ENSO is associated to a bipolar precipitation pattern in Southern and Eastern Africa. La Niña years (i.e. Cold ENSO Episodes) are characterized by dry climate in Eastern Africa and wet climate in Southern Africa. During El Niño (or Warm Episode) the precipitation dipole is inverted, and Eastern Africa experiences increased probability for above normal rainfall (Halpert and Ropelewski, 1992, Journal of Climate). Our study represents the first exercise in trying to include ENSO forecasts in micro weather index insurance contract design. We analyzed the contracts payouts with respect to climate variability. In particular (i) we simulated

  11. Impacts of Forest to Urban Land Conversion and ENSO Phase on Water Quality of a Public Water Supply Reservoir

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emile Elias

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available We used coupled watershed and reservoir models to evaluate the impacts of deforestation and l Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO phase on drinking water quality. Source water total organic carbon (TOC is especially important due to the potential for production of carcinogenic disinfection byproducts (DBPs. The Environmental Fluid Dynamics Code (EFDC reservoir model is used to evaluate the difference between daily pre- and post- urbanization nutrients and TOC concentration. Post-disturbance (future reservoir total nitrogen (TN, total phosphorus (TP, TOC and chlorophyll-a concentrations were found to be higher than pre-urbanization (base concentrations (p < 0.05. Predicted future median TOC concentration was 1.1 mg·L−1 (41% higher than base TOC concentration at the source water intake. Simulations show that prior to urbanization, additional water treatment was necessary on 47% of the days between May and October. However, following simulated urbanization, additional drinking water treatment might be continuously necessary between May and October. One of six ENSO indices is weakly negatively correlated with the measured reservoir TOC indicating there may be higher TOC concentrations in times of lower streamflow (La Niña. There is a positive significant correlation between simulated TN and TP concentrations with ENSO suggesting higher concentrations during El Niño.

  12. Summer monsoon rainfall variability over North East regions of India and its association with Eurasian snow, Atlantic Sea Surface temperature and Arctic Oscillation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prabhu, Amita; Oh, Jaiho; Kim, In-won; Kripalani, R. H.; Mitra, A. K.; Pandithurai, G.

    2017-10-01

    This observational study during the 29-year period from 1979 to 2007 evaluates the potential role of Eurasian snow in modulating the North East-Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall with a lead time of almost 6 months. This link is manifested by the changes in high-latitude atmospheric winter snow variability over Eurasia associated with Arctic Oscillation (AO). Excessive wintertime Eurasian snow leads to an anomalous cooling of the overlying atmosphere and is associated with the negative mode of AO, inducing a meridional wave-train descending over the tropical north Atlantic and is associated with cooling of this region. Once the cold anomalies are established over the tropical Atlantic, it persists up to the following summer leading to an anomalous zonal wave-train further inducing a descending branch over NE-India resulting in weak summer monsoon rainfall.

  13. Comparative Analysis of Upper Ocean Heat Content Variability from Ensemble Operational Ocean Analyses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xue, Yan; Balmaseda, Magdalena A.; Boyer, Tim; Ferry, Nicolas; Good, Simon; Ishikawa, Ichiro; Rienecker, Michele; Rosati, Tony; Yin, Yonghong; Kumar, Arun

    2012-01-01

    Upper ocean heat content (HC) is one of the key indicators of climate variability on many time-scales extending from seasonal to interannual to long-term climate trends. For example, HC in the tropical Pacific provides information on thermocline anomalies that is critical for the longlead forecast skill of ENSO. Since HC variability is also associated with SST variability, a better understanding and monitoring of HC variability can help us understand and forecast SST variability associated with ENSO and other modes such as Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Tropical Atlantic Variability (TAV) and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). An accurate ocean initialization of HC anomalies in coupled climate models could also contribute to skill in decadal climate prediction. Errors, and/or uncertainties, in the estimation of HC variability can be affected by many factors including uncertainties in surface forcings, ocean model biases, and deficiencies in data assimilation schemes. Changes in observing systems can also leave an imprint on the estimated variability. The availability of multiple operational ocean analyses (ORA) that are routinely produced by operational and research centers around the world provides an opportunity to assess uncertainties in HC analyses, to help identify gaps in observing systems as they impact the quality of ORAs and therefore climate model forecasts. A comparison of ORAs also gives an opportunity to identify deficiencies in data assimilation schemes, and can be used as a basis for development of real-time multi-model ensemble HC monitoring products. The OceanObs09 Conference called for an intercomparison of ORAs and use of ORAs for global ocean monitoring. As a follow up, we intercompared HC variations from ten ORAs -- two objective analyses based on in-situ data only and eight model analyses based on ocean data assimilation systems. The mean, annual cycle, interannual variability and longterm trend of HC have

  14. Hydrological cycle effects on the aquatic community in a Neotropical stream of the Andean piedmont during the 2007-2010 ENSO events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ríos-Pulgarín, M I; Barletta, M; Mancera-Rodriguez, N J

    2016-07-01

    The seasonal and interannual changes in the fish, macroinvertebrates and phycoperiphyton assemblages of the Guarinó River were examined in relation to the physical and chemical environmental changes associated with the hydrological cycle and the El Niño-Niña/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) between 2007 and 2010. Four samplings (in dry and rainy seasons) were performed per year. Environmental variables (temperature, pH, conductivity, turbidity, oxygen, total nitrogen, orthophosphate, depth and flow rate) were measured. The temporal patterns of the taxonomic compositions for the three assemblages and the functional composition of fish and macroinvertebrate assemblages with respect to environmental variables were examined through canonical discriminant analysis, multidimensional scaling and multiple correlations. The presence and abundance of fishes, macroinvertebrates and algae species were regulated by environmental variables associated with extreme hydrological events, which derived from the natural torrential regimen of the basin and larger-scale phenomena, such as El Niño and La Niña. Fish abundance and richness were significantly correlated with algal density and pH, the macroinvertebrate density was negatively related to the flow rate and the richness was positively correlated with algal density. The algae richness was positively correlated with pH and negatively correlated with the flow rate and nitrogen. The algal density was positively correlated with pH and temperature and negatively correlated with river flow. The phycoperiphyton assemblage exhibited more direct responses in its density and richness to the hydrological changes (r(2) = 0·743 and 0·800, respectively). In functional terms, the El Niño phenomenon was defined by a greater abundance of omnivorous and insectivorous fishes, as well as filter feeders, scrapers and macroinvertebrate predators. During La Niña, a greater abundance of benthic fishes (both detritivorous and insectivorous) and

  15. The Climate Variability & Predictability (CVP) Program at NOAA - Observing and Understanding Processes Affecting the Propagation of Intraseasonal Oscillations in the Maritime Continent Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lucas, S. E.

    2017-12-01

    The Climate Variability & Predictability (CVP) Program supports research aimed at providing process-level understanding of the climate system through observation, modeling, analysis, and field studies. This vital knowledge is needed to improve climate models and predictions so that scientists can better anticipate the impacts of future climate variability and change. To achieve its mission, the CVP Program supports research carried out at NOAA and other federal laboratories, NOAA Cooperative Institutes, and academic institutions. The Program also coordinates its sponsored projects with major national and international scientific bodies including the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP), the International and U.S. Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR/US CLIVAR) Program, and the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP). The CVP program sits within NOAA's Climate Program Office (http://cpo.noaa.gov/CVP). In 2017, the CVP Program had a call for proposals focused on observing and understanding processes affecting the propagation of intraseasonal oscillations in the Maritime Continent region. This poster will present the recently funded CVP projects, the expected scientific outcomes, the geographic areas of their work in the Maritime Continent region, and the collaborations with the Office of Naval Research, Indonesian Agency for Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics (BMKG), Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC) and other partners.

  16. An idealized study of the impact of extratropical climate change on El Nino-Southern Oscillation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhang, Qiong [Chinese Academy of Sciences, LASG, Institute of Atmospheric Science, Beijing (China); Yang, Haijun [Peking University, Department of Atmospheric Science and Laboratory for Severe Storm and Flood Disasters, Beijing (China); Zhong, Yafang [University of Wisconsin-Madison, Center for Climatic Research and Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Madison, WI (United States); Wang, Dongxiao [Chinese Academy of Sciences, Laboratory of Tropical Marine Environmental Dynamics, Guangzhou (China); South China Sea Institute of Oceanology, Guangzhou (China)

    2005-12-01

    Extratropical impacts on the tropical El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are studied in a coupled climate model. Idealized experiments show that the remote impact of the extratropics on the equatorial thermocline through oceanic tunnel can substantially modulate the ENSO in both magnitude and frequency. First of all, an extratropical warming can be conveyed to the equator by the mean subduction current, resulting in a warming of the equatorial thermocline. Second, the extratropical warming can weaken the Hadley cells, which in turn slow down the mean shallow meridional overturning circulations in the upper Pacific, reducing the equatorward cold water supply and the equatorial upwelling. These oceanic dynamic processes would weaken the stratification of the equatorial thermocline and retard a buildup (purge) of excess heat content along the equator, and finally result in a weaker and longer ENSO cycle. This study highlights a nonlocal mechanism in which ENSO behavior is related to the extratropical climate conditions. (orig.)

  17. Seasonal influence of ENSO on the Atlantic ITCZ and equatorial South America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Münnich, M.; Neelin, J. D.

    2005-11-01

    In late boreal spring, especially May, a strong relationship exists in observations among precipitation anomalies over equatorial South America and the Atlantic intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ), and eastern equatorial Pacific and central equatorial Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA). A chain of correlations of equatorial Pacific SSTA, western equatorial Atlantic wind stress (WEA), equatorial Atlantic SSTA, sea surface height, and precipitation supports a causal chain in which El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) induces WEA stress anomalies, which in turn affect Atlantic equatorial ocean dynamics. These correlations show strong seasonality, apparently arising within the atmospheric links of the chain. This pathway and the influence of equatorial Atlantic SSTA on South American rainfall in May appear independent of that of the northern tropical Atlantic. Brazil's Nordeste is affected by the northern tropical Atlantic. The equatorial influence lies further to the north over the eastern Amazon and the Guiana Highlands.

  18. Evidences of the association among epidemic of malaria buds in Colombia and the phenomenon El Nino - oscillation of the south

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Poveda J, German; Rojas M, William

    1997-01-01

    The El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon is the main forcing mechanism of climatic variability in tropical South America from seasons to decades. Colombia experience below normal dry periods and above normal air temperatures during the warm phase of ENSO (El Nino), and the converse for the cold phase (La Nina). We analyze records of the annual parasitary incidence (A.P.I) index of malaria in Colombia (Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum) for the 1959-1994 period we conclude that: (1) during the occurrence of the El Nino event there is a remarkable increase in the number of cases of malaria in Colombia, with a correlation coefficient of 0.62 (statistically significant at the 95% level) between the malaria 8eries and the sea surface temperature series at the nino-4 region (5 degrades N-5 degrades S, 160 degrades E-150 degrades O); and (2) there is an increasing trend in the number of cases for the aforementioned period these statistically related correlations and modeling results may be used for developing health early warning systems (hews) of climate conditions conducive to outbreaks, facilitating early, environmentally-sound public health interventions to control and mitigate the incidence of diseases related with climate variability

  19. An analysis of surface air temperature trends and variability along the Andes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Franquist, Eric S.

    Climate change is difficult to study in mountainous regions such as the Andes since steep changes in elevation cannot always be resolved by climate models. However, it is important to examine temperature trends in this region as rises in surface air temperature are leading to the melting of tropical glaciers. Local communities rely on the glacier-fed streamflow to get their water for drinking, irrigation, and livestock. Moreover, communities also rely on the tourism of hikers who come to the region to view the glaciers. As the temperatures increase, these glaciers are no longer in equilibrium with their current climate and are receding rapidly and decreasing the streamflow. This thesis examines surface air temperature from 858 weather stations across Ecuador, Peru, and Chile in order to analyze changes in trends and variability. Three time periods were studied: 1961--1990, 1971--2000, and 1981--2010. The greatest warming occurred during the period of 1971--2000 with 92% of the stations experiencing positive trends with a mean of 0.24°C/decade. There was a clear shift toward cooler temperatures at all latitudes and below elevations of 500 m during the most recent time period studied (1981--2010). Station temperatures were more strongly correlated with the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), than the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and the Southern Annular Mode (SAM). A principal component analysis confirmed ENSO as the main contributor of variability with the most influence in the lower latitudes. There were clear multidecadal changes in correlation strength for the PDO. The PDO contributed the most to the increases in station temperature trends during the 1961--1990 period, consistent with the PDO shift to the positive phase in the middle of this period. There were many strong positive trends at individual stations during the 1971--2000 period; however, these trends could not fully be attributed to ENSO, PDO, or SAM, indicating anthropogenic effects of

  20. Impact of the Dominant Large-scale Teleconnections on Winter Temperature Variability over East Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lim, Young-Kwon; Kim, Hae-Dong

    2013-01-01

    Monthly mean geopotential height for the past 33 DJF seasons archived in Modern Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications reanalysis is decomposed into the large-scale teleconnection patterns to explain their impacts on winter temperature variability over East Asia. Following Arctic Oscillation (AO) that explains the largest variance, East Atlantic/West Russia (EA/WR), West Pacific (WP) and El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are identified as the first four leading modes that significantly explain East Asian winter temperature variation. While the northern part of East Asia north of 50N is prevailed by AO and EA/WR impacts, temperature in the midlatitudes (30N-50N), which include Mongolia, northeastern China, Shandong area, Korea, and Japan, is influenced by combined effect of the four leading teleconnections. ENSO impact on average over 33 winters is relatively weaker than the impact of the other three teleconnections. WP impact, which has received less attention than ENSO in earlier studies, characterizes winter temperatures over Korea, Japan, and central to southern China region south of 30N mainly by advective process from the Pacific. Upper level wave activity fluxes reveal that, for the AO case, the height and circulation anomalies affecting midlatitude East Asian winter temperature is mainly located at higher latitudes north of East Asia. Distribution of the fluxes also explains that the stationary wave train associated with EA/WR propagates southeastward from the western Russia, affecting the East Asian winter temperature. Investigation on the impact of each teleconnection for the selected years reveals that the most dominant teleconnection over East Asia is not the same at all years, indicating a great deal of interannual variability. Comparison in temperature anomaly distributions between observation and temperature anomaly constructed using the combined effect of four leading teleconnections clearly show a reasonable consistency between

  1. Using Remote Sensing Products to Identify Marine Association Patterns in Factors Relating to ENSO in the Pacific Ocean

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cunjin Xue

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO and its relationships with marine environmental parameters comprise a very complicated and interrelated system. Traditional spatiotemporal techniques face great challenges in dealing with which, how, and where the marine environmental parameters in different zones help to drive, and respond to, ENSO events. Remote sensing products covering a 15-year period from 1998 to 2012 were used to quantitatively explore these patterns in the Pacific Ocean (PO by a prevail quantitative association rule mining algorithm, that is, a priori, within a mining framework. The marine environmental parameters considered were monthly anomaly of sea surface chlorophyll-a (CHLA, monthly anomaly of sea surface temperature (SSTA, monthly anomaly of sea level anomaly (SLAA, monthly anomaly of sea surface precipitation (SSPA, and monthly anomaly of sea surface wind speed (WSA. Four significant discoveries are found, namely: (1 Association patterns among marine environmental parameters and ENSO events were found primarily in five sub-regions of the PO: the western PO, the central and eastern tropical PO, the middle of the northern subtropical PO, offshore of the California coast, and the southern PO; (2 In the western and the middle and east of the equatorial PO, the association patterns are more complicated than other regions; (3 The following factors were found to be predicators of and responses to La Niña events: abnormal decrease of SLAA and WSA in the east of the equatorial PO, abnormal decrease of SSPA and WSA in the middle of the equatorial PO, abnormal decrease of SSTA in the eastern and central tropical PO, and abnormal increase of SLAA in the western PO; (4 Only abnormal decrease of CHLA in the middle of the equatorial PO was found to be a predicator of and response to El Niño events. These findings will help to improve our abilities to identify the marine association patterns in factors relating to ENSO events.

  2. Modulation of the SSTA decadal variation on ENSO events and relationships of SSTA With LOD,SOI, etc

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liao, D. C.; Zhou, Y. H.; Liao, X. H.

    2007-01-01

    Interannual and decadal components of the length of day (LOD), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and Sea Surface Temperature anomaly (SSTA) in Nino regions are extracted by band-pass filtering, and used for research of the modulation of the SSTA on the ENSO events. Results show that besides the interannual components, the decadal components in SSTA have strong impacts on monitoring and representing of the ENSO events. When the ENSO events are strong, the modulation of the decadal components of the SSTA tends to prolong the life-time of the events and enlarge the extreme anomalies of the SST, while the ENSO events, which are so weak that they can not be detected by the interannual components of the SSTA, can also be detected with the help of the modulation of the SSTA decadal components. The study further draws attention to the relationships of the SSTA interannual and decadal components with those of LOD, SOI, both of the sea level pressure anomalies (SLPA) and the trade wind anomalies (TWA) in tropic Pacific, and also with those of the axial components of the atmospheric angular momentum (AAM) and oceanic angular momentum (OAM). Results of the squared coherence and coherent phases among them reveal close connections with the SSTA and almost all of the parameters mentioned above on the interannual time scales, while on the decadal time scale significant connections are among the SSTA and SOI, SLPA, TWA, ?3w and ?3w+v as well, and slight weaker connections between the SSTA and LOD, ?3pib and ?3bp

  3. How well do climate models simulate atmospheric teleconnctions over the North Pacific and East Asia associated with ENSO?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Sunyong; Son, Hye-Young; Kug, Jong-Seong

    2017-02-01

    During the El Niño and La Niña mature phase, atmospheric teleconnections over the North Pacific and East Asia vary considerably on sub-seasonal time scales, and are strongly phase-locked to the sub-seasonal evolution. In this study, we investigate how well climate models that participated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) simulate the sub-seasonal evolution of teleconnections over the North Pacific and East Asia associated with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). In the observations, there is a prominent anticyclone anomaly over the Kuroshio extension region (i.e. Kuroshio anticyclone), which significantly affects East Asian climate in the early winter (November-December) of El Niño years. However, in January, the Kuroshio anticyclone suddenly disappears, and a cyclonic flow dominates over the North Pacific. It is found here that the CMIP5 models simulate the overall extratropical teleconnection patterns, but they fail to reproduce some of these sub-seasonally-varying features in atmospheric circulation. For example, the models tend to simulate a weaker Kuroshio anticyclone in the early winter during El Niño phases, and fail to capture the abrupt decay of the Kuroshio anticyclone in the late winter. We demonstrate here that these systematic errors in ENSO teleconnection can be explained by systematic errors in tropical precipitation associated with ENSO. That is, negative precipitation anomalies over the western North Pacific (WNP) are too weak in the models compared to that in the observations, and their amplitude tends to be strengthened from December to the following January, while they are weakened in the observations. In addition, analyses on the inter-model diversity strongly support that relative magnitudes of WNP and central Pacific precipitation anomalies are critical for determining sub-seasonal evolution of ENSO teleconnections over the North Pacific and East Asia.

  4. The influence of sea surface temperature anomalies on low-frequency variability of the North Atlantic Oscillation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Manganello, Julia V. [Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, Calverton, MD (United States)

    2008-05-15

    The influence of sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) on multi-year persistence of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) during the second half of the twentieth century is investigated using the Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies (COLA) Atmospheric GCM (AGCM) with an emphasis on isolating the geographic location of the SSTA that produce this influence. The present study focuses on calculating the atmospheric response to the SSTA averaged over 1988-1995 (1961-1968) corresponding to the observed period of strong persistence of the positive (negative) phase of the decadal NAO. The model response to the global 1988-1995 average SSTA shows a statistically significant large-scale pattern characteristic of the positive phase of the NAO. Forcing with the global 1961-1968 average SSTA generates a NAO of the opposite polarity compared to observations. However, all large-scale features both in the model and observations during this period are weaker in magnitude and less significant compared to 1988-1995. Additional idealized experiments show that over the northern center of the NAO the non-linear component of the forced response appears to be quite important and acts to enhance the positive NAO signal. On the other hand, over the southern center where the model response is the strongest, it is also essentially linear. The 1988-1995 average SSTA restricted to the western tropical Pacific region produce a positive NAO remarkably similar in structure but stronger in magnitude than the model response to the global and tropical Indo-Pacific 1988-1995 forcing. A 200-hPa geopotential height response in these experiments shows a positive anomaly over the southern center of the NAO embedded in the Rossby wave trains propagating from the western tropical Pacific. Indian Ocean SSTA lead to much weaker positive NAO primarily through the effect on its northern center. SST forcing confined to the North Atlantic north of equator does not produce a response statistically different

  5. Wavelet analysis of interannual LOD, AAM, and ENSO: 1997-98 El Niño and 1998-99 La Niña signals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Y. H.; Zheng, D. W.; Liao, X. H.

    2001-05-01

    On the basis of the data series of the length of day (LOD), the atmospheric angular momentum (AAM) and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) for January 1970-June 1999, the relationship among Interannual LOD, AAM, and the EL Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is analyzed by the wavelet transform method. The results suggest that they have similar time-varying spectral structures. The signals of 1997-98 El Niño and 1998-99 La Niña events can be detected from the LOD or AAM data.

  6. Effects of Atlantic warm pool variability over climate of South America tropical transition zone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ricaurte Villota, Constanza; Romero-Rodríguez, Deisy; Andrés Ordoñez-Zuñiga, Silvio; Murcia-Riaño, Magnolia; Coca-Domínguez, Oswaldo

    2016-04-01

    Colombia is located in the northwestern corner of South America in a climatically complex region due to the influence processes modulators of climate both the Pacific and Atlantic region, becoming in a transition zone between phenomena of northern and southern hemisphere. Variations in the climatic conditions of this region, especially rainfall, have been attributed to the influence of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), but little is known about the interaction within Atlantic Ocean and specifically Caribbean Sea with the environmental conditions of this region. In this work We studied the influence of the Atlantic Warm Pool (AWP) on the Colombian Caribbean (CC) climate using data of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) between 1900 - 2014 from ERSST V4, compared with in situ data SIMAC (National System for Coral Reef Monitoring in Colombia - INVEMAR), rainfall between 1953-2013 of meteorological stations located at main airports in the Colombian Caribbean zone, administered by IDEAM, and winds data between 2003 - 2014 from WindSat sensor. The parameters analyzed showed spatial differences throughout the study area. SST anomalies, representing the variability of the AWP, showed to be associated with Multidecadal Atlantic Oscillation (AMO) and with the index of sea surface temperature of the North-tropical Atlantic (NTA), the variations was on 3 to 5 years on the ENSO scale and of approximately 11 years possibly related to solar cycles. Rainfall anomalies in the central and northern CC respond to changes in SST, while in the south zone these are not fully engage and show a high relationship with the ENSO. Finally, the winds also respond to changes in SST and showed a signal approximately 90 days possibly related to the Madden-Julian Oscillation, whose intensity depends on the CC region being analyzed. The results confirm that region is a transition zone in which operate several forcing, the variability of climate conditions is difficult to attribute only one, as ENSO

  7. Factors affecting the inter-annual to centennial timescale variability of Indian summer monsoon rainfall

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malik, Abdul; Brönnimann, Stefan

    2018-06-01

    The Modes of Ocean Variability (MOV) namely Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) can have significant impacts on Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) on different timescales. The timescales at which these MOV interacts with ISMR and the factors which may perturb their relationship with ISMR need to be investigated. We employ De-trended Cross-Correlation Analysis (DCCA), and De-trended Partial-Cross-Correlation Analysis (DPCCA) to study the timescales of interaction of ISMR with AMO, PDO, and ENSO using observational dataset (AD 1854-1999), and atmosphere-ocean-chemistry climate model simulations with SOCOL-MPIOM (AD 1600-1999). Further, this study uses De-trended Semi-Partial Cross-Correlation Analysis (DSPCCA) to address the relation between solar variability and the ISMR. We find statistically significant evidence of intrinsic correlations of ISMR with AMO, PDO, and ENSO on different timescales, consistent between model simulations and observations. However, the model fails to capture modulation in intrinsic relationship between ISRM and MOV due to external signals. Our analysis indicates that AMO is a potential source of non-stationary relationship between ISMR and ENSO. Furthermore, the pattern of correlation between ISMR and Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) is inconsistent between observations and model simulations. The observational dataset indicates statistically insignificant negative intrinsic correlation between ISMR and TSI on decadal-to-centennial timescales. This statistically insignificant negative intrinsic correlation is transformed to statistically significant positive extrinsic by AMO on 61-86-year timescale. We propose a new mechanism for Sun-monsoon connection which operates through AMO by changes in summer (June-September; JJAS) meridional gradient of tropospheric temperatures (ΔTTJJAS). There is a negative (positive) intrinsic correlation between ΔTTJJAS (AMO) and

  8. The interannual precipitation variability in the southern part of Iran as linked to large-scale climate modes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pourasghar, Farnaz; Jahanbakhsh, Saeed; Sari Sarraf, Behrooz [The University of Tabriz, Department of Physical Geography, Faculty of Humanities and Social Science, Tabriz (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Tozuka, Tomoki [The University of Tokyo, Department of Earth and Planetary Science, Graduate School of Science, Tokyo (Japan); Ghaemi, Hooshang [Iran Meteorological Organization, Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Yamagata, Toshio [The University of Tokyo, Department of Earth and Planetary Science, Graduate School of Science, Tokyo (Japan); Application Laboratory/JAMSTEC, Yokohama, Kanagawa (Japan)

    2012-11-15

    The interannual variation of precipitation in the southern part of Iran and its link with the large-scale climate modes are examined using monthly data from 183 meteorological stations during 1974-2005. The majority of precipitation occurs during the rainy season from October to May. The interannual variation in fall and early winter during the first part of the rainy season shows apparently a significant positive correlation with the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). However, a partial correlation analysis used to extract the respective influence of IOD and ENSO shows a significant positive correlation only with the IOD and not with ENSO. The southeasterly moisture flux anomaly over the Arabian Sea turns anti-cyclonically and transport more moisture to the southern part of Iran from the Arabian Sea, the Red Sea, and the Persian Gulf during the positive IOD. On the other hand, the moisture flux has northerly anomaly over Iran during the negative IOD, which results in reduced moisture supply from the south. During the latter part of the rainy season in late winter and spring, the interannual variation of precipitation is more strongly influenced by modes of variability over the Mediterranean Sea. The induced large-scale atmospheric circulation anomaly controls moisture supply from the Red Sea and the Persian Gulf. (orig.)

  9. The impact of combined ENSO and PDO on the PNA climate: a 1,000-year climate modeling study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yu, B. [Environment Canada, Climate Data and Analysis Section, Climate Research Division, Toronto, ON (Canada); Zwiers, F.W. [Environment Canada, Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Climate Research Division, Victoria (Canada)

    2007-12-15

    This study analyzes the atmospheric response to the combined Pacific interannual ENSO and decadal-interdecadal PDO variability, with a focus on the Pacific-North American (PNA) sector, using a 1,000-year long integration of the Canadian Center for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma) coupled climate model. Both the tropospheric circulation and the North American temperature suggest an enhanced PNA-like climate response and impacts on North America when ENSO and PDO variability are in phase. The anomalies of the centers of action for the PNA-like pattern are significantly different from zero and the anomaly pattern is field significant. In association with the stationary wave anomalies, large stationary wave activity fluxes appear in the mid-high latitudes originating from the North Pacific and flowing downstream toward North America. There are significant Rossby wave source anomalies in the extratropical North Pacific and in the subtropical North Pacific. In addition, the axis of the Pacific storm track shifts southward with the positive PNA. Atmospheric heating anomalies associated with ENSO variability are confined primarily to the tropics. There is an anomalous heating center over the northeast Pacific, together with anomalies with the same polarity in the tropical Pacific, for the PDO variability. The in-phase combination of ENSO and PDO would in turn provide anomalous atmospheric energy transports towards North America from both the Tropical Pacific and the North Pacific, which tends to favor the occurrence of stationary wave anomalies and would lead to a PNA-like wave anomaly structure. The modeling results also confirm our analysis based on the observational record in the twentieth century. (orig.)

  10. Separating the Effects of Tropical Atlantic and Pacific SST-driven Climate Variability on Amazon Carbon Exchange

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liptak, J.; Keppel-Aleks, G.

    2016-12-01

    Amazon forests store an estimated 25% percent of global terrestrial carbon per year1, 2, but the responses of Amazon carbon uptake to climate change is highly uncertain. One source of this uncertainty is tropical sea surface temperature variability driven by teleconnections. El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a key driver of year-to-year Amazon carbon exchange, with associated temperature and precipitation changes favoring net carbon storage in La Nina years, and net carbon release during El Nino years3. To determine how Amazon climate and terrestrial carbon fluxes react to ENSO alone and in concert with other SST-driven teleconnections such as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), we force the atmosphere (CAM5) and land (CLM4) components of the CESM(BGC) with prescribed monthly SSTs over the period 1950—2014 in a Historical control simulation. We then run an experiment (PAC) with time-varying SSTs applied only to the tropical equatorial Pacific Ocean, and repeating SST seasonal cycle climatologies elsewhere. Limiting SST variability to the equatorial Pacific indicates that other processes enhance ENSO-driven Amazon climate anomalies. Compared to the Historical control simulation, warming, drying and terrestrial carbon loss over the Amazon during El Nino periods are lower in the PAC simulation, especially prior to 1990 during the cool phase of the AMO. Cooling, moistening, and net carbon uptake during La Nina periods are also reduced in the PAC simulation, but differences are greater after 1990 during the warm phase of the AMO. By quantifying the relationships among climate drivers and carbon fluxes in the Historical and PAC simulations, we both assess the sensitivity of these relationships to the magnitude of ENSO forcing and quantify how other teleconnections affect ENSO-driven Amazon climate feedbacks. We expect that these results will help us improve hypotheses for how Atlantic and Pacific climate trends will affect future Amazon carbon carbon

  11. Recharge beneath low-impact design rain gardens and the influence of El Niño Southern Oscillation on urban, coastal groundwater resources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Newcomer, M. E.; Gurdak, J. J.

    2011-12-01

    Groundwater resources in urban, coastal environments are highly vulnerable to increased human pressures and climate variability. Impervious surfaces, such as buildings, roads, and parking lots prevent infiltration, reduce recharge to underlying aquifers, and increase contaminants in surface runoff that often overflow sewage systems. To mitigate these effects, cities worldwide are adopting low impact design (LID) approaches that direct runoff into natural vegetated systems, such as rain gardens that reduce, filter, and slow stormwater runoff, and are hypothesized to increase infiltration and recharge rates to aquifers. The effects of LID on recharge rates and quality is unknown, particularly during intense precipitation events for cities along the Pacific coast in response to interannual variability of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Using vadose zone monitoring sensors and instruments, I collected and monitored soil, hydraulic, and geochemical data to quantify the rates and quality of infiltration and recharge to the California Coastal aquifer system beneath a LID rain garden and traditional turf-lawn setting in San Francisco, CA. The data were used to calibrate a HYDRUS-3D model to simulate recharge rates under historical and future variability of ENSO. Understanding these processes has important implications for managing groundwater resources in urban, coastal environments.

  12. Eventos de tiempo severo inducidos por el ENSO en la temporada invernal cubana

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    1998-01-01

    enmarca a la temporada seca o poco lluviosa del año, en la cual, a diferencia de los sistemas tropicales del verano, no se registran usualmente fenómenos severos. Sin embargo, en las temporadas invernales bajo la influencia del ENOS se activan de manera anómala los sistemas meteorológicos invernales en latitudes situadas muy al sur. Son entonces relativamente frecuentes que se produzcan eventos de tiempo severo de 24 a 48 horas de duración, con el avance de líneas de tormentas severas, lluvias intensas, tornados, granizadas e inundaciones costeras. Estos eventos ocasionan muerte y gran destrucción, con grandes afectaciones a la agricultura y la industria azucarera. Los climatólogos reconocen en el ENOS la causa de mayor variabilidad climática interanual en el planeta. Desde este punto de vista describen y pronostican sus efectos estacionales como la desviación positiva o negativa de variables como la precipitación y la temperatura. Sin embargo, un enfoque más detallado de las afectaciones sólo puede brindarlo un estudio de los sistemas sinópticos que, inducidos por el ENOS, causan el tiempo severo. Esto es totalmente necesario para el diseño de un Sistema de Alerta Temprana que sirva a los intereses de la Defensa Civil y de la economía. En el presente trabajo se identifica el papel que juega la Corriente en Chorro Sub-tropical en la formación de los eventos de tiempo severo en Cuba. Asimismo, del estudio de las temporadas invernales con ENOS moderado o fuerte desde 1957-58 hasta la del 1996-97, se obtuvieron los patrones sinópticos de superficie y aire superior que están asociados a los eventos de tiempo severo inducidos por el ENOS. Se presentan además ejemplos de la afectación al país de los eventos principales. Con el reconocimiento de estos patrones o tipos, se diseña un Sistema de Alerta Temprana desde el plazo de 7 a 10 días, dirigido a la Defensa Civil y los intereses económicos del país. SEVERE WEATHER EVENTS INDUCED BY ENSO EVENTS DURING

  13. Intraseasonal variability of upper-ocean currents and photosynthetic primary production along the U.S. west coast associated with the Madden-Julian Oscillation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barrett, B.; Davies, A. R.; Steppe, C. N.; Hackbarth, C.

    2017-12-01

    In the first part of this study, time-lagged composites of upper-ocean currents from February to May of 1993-2016 were binned by active phase of the leading atmospheric mode of intraseasonal variability, the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). Seven days after the convectively active phase of the MJO enters the tropical Indian Ocean, anomalously strong south-southeastward upper-ocean currents are observed along the majority of U.S. west coast. Seven days after the convectively active phase enters the tropical western Pacific Ocean, upper-ocean current anomalies reverse along the U.S. west coast, with weaker southward flow. A physical pathway to the ocean was found for both of these: (a) tropical MJO convection modulates upper-tropospheric heights and circulation over the Pacific Ocean; (b) those anomalous atmospheric heights adjust the strength and position of the Aleutian Low and Hawaiian High; (c) surface winds change in response to the adjusted atmospheric pressure patterns; and (d) those surface winds project onto upper-ocean currents. In the second part of this study, we investigated if the MJO modulated intraseasonal variability of surface wind forcing and upper-ocean currents projected onto phytoplankton abundance along the U.S. west coast. Following a similar methodology, time-lagged, level 3 chlorophyll-a satellite products (a proxy for photosynthetic primary production) were binned by active MJO phase and analyzed for statistical significance using the Student's t test. Results suggest that intraseasonal variability of biological production along the U.S. west coast may be linked to the MJO, particularly since the time scale of the life cycle of phytoplankton is similar to the time scale of the MJO.

  14. Geographical distribution of the association between El Niño South Oscillation and dengue fever in the Americas: a continental analysis using geographical information system-based techniques

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marcos C. Ferreira

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available El Niño South Oscillation (ENSO is one climatic phenomenon related to the inter-annual variability of global meteorological patterns influencing sea surface temperature and rainfall variability. It influences human health indirectly through extreme temperature and moisture conditions that may accelerate the spread of some vector-borne viral diseases, like dengue fever (DF. This work examines the spatial distribution of association between ENSO and DF in the countries of the Americas during 1995-2004, which includes the 1997-1998 El Niño, one of the most important climatic events of 20th century. Data regarding the South Oscillation index (SOI, indicating El Niño-La Niña activity, were obtained from Australian Bureau of Meteorology. The annual DF incidence (AIy by country was computed using Pan-American Health Association data. SOI and AIy values were standardised as deviations from the mean and plotted in bars-line graphics. The regression coefficient values between SOI and AIy (rSOI,AI were calculated and spatially interpolated by an inverse distance weighted algorithm. The results indicate that among the five years registering high number of cases (1998, 2002, 2001, 2003 and 1997, four had El Niño activity. In the southern hemisphere, the annual spatial weighted mean centre of epidemics moved southward, from 6° 31' S in 1995 to 21° 12' S in 1999 and the rSOI,AI values were negative in Cuba, Belize, Guyana and Costa Rica, indicating a synchrony between higher DF incidence rates and a higher El Niño activity. The rSOI,AI map allows visualisation of a graded surface with higher values of ENSO-DF associations for Mexico, Central America, northern Caribbean islands and the extreme north-northwest of South America.

  15. Spatial and temporal variability of the Choco jet stream and its effect on the hydroclimatology of the Colombian pacific

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rueda, Oscar A; Poveda, German

    2006-01-01

    The Chorro del occidente Colombiano Choco is a low level jet that determines the hydroclimatology of the Colombian pacific region. In this paper, the spatial and temporal variability of the Choco were analyzed. To study this variability, the southern oscillation index (SOI) and multivariate ENSO index (MEI) from the national center for environmental prediction/national center for atmospheric research (NCEP/NCAR) were used. Sea surface temperatures (SST), specific humidity (Shum), and wind speed (WS) data were also utilized. The annual advection cycle of humidity in the core of the Choco was investigated at three different longitudes. A correlation was established between this advection cycle and the temperature gradient involving two zones of the western tropical pacific. These zones are El Nino 1+2 and the Colombian Pacific Ocean. The interannual variability of the Choco associated with both El Nino and La Nina phases of ENSO were derived from a correlation coefficient between the jet's core and both the SOI and the MEI. A wavelet analysis was made between the advection cycle and both the precipitation and river flow in the Colombian pacific region was also studied. The most important outcome of this research is a linkage relating the SST, SOI and MEI with the advection of the Choco, indicating a significant coupling of these variables and both the annual and interannual variability of the jet. These results reveal that the hydroclimatology of the Colombian pacific region is related to the amount of moisture carried by the Choco

  16. El Nino Southern Oscillation and vegetation dynamics as predictors of dengue fever cases in Costa Rica

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fuller, D O; Troyo, A; Beier, J C

    2009-01-01

    Dengue fever (DF) and dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) are growing health concerns throughout Latin America and the Caribbean. This study focuses on Costa Rica, which experienced over 100 000 cases of DF/DHF from 2003 to 2007. We utilized data on sea-surface temperature anomalies related to the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and two vegetation indices derived from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) from the Terra satellite to model the influence of climate and vegetation dynamics on DF/DHF cases in Costa Rica. Cross-correlations were calculated to evaluate both positive and negative lag effects on the relationships between independent variables and DF/DHF cases. The model, which utilizes a sinusoid and non-linear least squares to fit case data, was able to explain 83% of the variance in weekly DF/DHF cases when independent variables were shifted backwards in time. When the independent variables were shifted forward in time, consistently with a forecasting approach, the model explained 64% of the variance. Importantly, when five ENSO and two vegetation indices were included, the model reproduced a major DF/DHF epidemic of 2005. The unexplained variance in the model may be due to herd immunity and vector control measures, although information regarding these aspects of the disease system are generally lacking. Our analysis suggests that the model may be used to predict DF/DHF outbreaks as early as 40 weeks in advance and may also provide valuable information on the magnitude of future epidemics. In its current form it may be used to inform national vector control programs and policies regarding control measures; it is the first climate-based dengue model developed for this country and is potentially scalable to the broader region of Latin America and the Caribbean where dramatic increases in DF/DHF incidence and spread have been observed.

  17. El Nino Southern Oscillation and vegetation dynamics as predictors of dengue fever cases in Costa Rica

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fuller, D O [Department of Geography and Regional Studies, University of Miami, Coral Gables, FL 33124-2221 (United States); Troyo, A [Centro de Investigacion en Enfermedades Tropicales, Departamento de ParasitologIa, Facultad de MicrobiologIa, Universidad de Costa Rica, San Jose (Costa Rica); Beier, J C [Global Public Health Program, Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, University of Miami, Miami, FL (United States)], E-mail: dofuller@miami.edu

    2009-01-15

    Dengue fever (DF) and dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) are growing health concerns throughout Latin America and the Caribbean. This study focuses on Costa Rica, which experienced over 100 000 cases of DF/DHF from 2003 to 2007. We utilized data on sea-surface temperature anomalies related to the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and two vegetation indices derived from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) from the Terra satellite to model the influence of climate and vegetation dynamics on DF/DHF cases in Costa Rica. Cross-correlations were calculated to evaluate both positive and negative lag effects on the relationships between independent variables and DF/DHF cases. The model, which utilizes a sinusoid and non-linear least squares to fit case data, was able to explain 83% of the variance in weekly DF/DHF cases when independent variables were shifted backwards in time. When the independent variables were shifted forward in time, consistently with a forecasting approach, the model explained 64% of the variance. Importantly, when five ENSO and two vegetation indices were included, the model reproduced a major DF/DHF epidemic of 2005. The unexplained variance in the model may be due to herd immunity and vector control measures, although information regarding these aspects of the disease system are generally lacking. Our analysis suggests that the model may be used to predict DF/DHF outbreaks as early as 40 weeks in advance and may also provide valuable information on the magnitude of future epidemics. In its current form it may be used to inform national vector control programs and policies regarding control measures; it is the first climate-based dengue model developed for this country and is potentially scalable to the broader region of Latin America and the Caribbean where dramatic increases in DF/DHF incidence and spread have been observed.

  18. Drought Variability in the Eastern Australia and New Zealand Summer Drought Atlas (ANZDA, CE 1500-2012) Modulated by the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palmer, Jonathan G.; Cook, Edward R.; Turney, Chris S. M.; Allen, Kathy; Fenwick, Pavla; Cook, Benjamin I.; O'Donnell, Alison; Lough, Janice; Grierson, Pauline; Baker, Patrick

    2015-01-01

    Agricultural production across eastern Australia and New Zealand is highly vulnerable to drought, but there is a dearth of observational drought information prior to CE (Christian Era) 1850. Using a comprehensive network of 176 drought-sensitive tree-ring chronologies and one coral series, we report the first Southern Hemisphere gridded drought atlas extending back to CE 1500. The austral summer (December-February) Palmer drought sensitivity index reconstruction accurately reproduces historically documented drought events associated with the first European settlement of Australia in CE 1788, and the leading principal component explains over 50 percent of the underlying variance. This leading mode of variability is strongly related to the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation tripole index (IPO), with a strong and robust antiphase correlation between (1) eastern Australia and the New Zealand North Island and (2) the South Island. Reported positive, negative, and neutral phases of the IPO are consistently reconstructed by the drought atlas although the relationship since CE 1976 appears to have weakened.

  19. Galactic cosmic ray and El Nino Southern Oscillation trends in International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project D2 low-cloud properties

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Marsh, N.; Svensmark, Henrik

    2003-01-01

    [1] The recently reported correlation between clouds and galactic cosmic rays (GCR) implies the existence of a previously unknown process linking solar variability and climate. An analysis of the interannual variability of International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project D2 (ISCCP-D2) low-cloud...... a strong correlation with GCR, which suggests that low-cloud properties observed in these regions are less likely to be contaminated from overlying cloud. The GCR-low cloud correlation cannot easily be explained by internal climate processes, changes in direct solar forcing, or UV-ozone interactions...... properties over the period July 1983 to August 1994 suggests that low clouds are statistically related to two processes, (1) GCR and (2) El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), with GCR explaining a greater percentage of the total variance. Areas where satellites have an unobstructed view of low cloud possess...

  20. Tracking ENSO with tropical trees: Progress in stable isotope dendroclimatology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evans, M. N.; Poussart, P. F.; Saleska, S. R.; Schrag, D. P.

    2002-12-01

    The terrestrial tropics remain an important gap in the growing proxy network used to characterize past ENSO behavior. Here we describe a strategy for development of proxy estimates of paleo-ENSO, via proxy rainfall estimates derived from stable isotope (δ18O) measurements made on tropical trees. The approach applies a new model of oxygen isotopic composition of alpha-cellulose (Roden et al., 2000), a rapid method for cellulose extraction from raw wood (Brendel et al., 2000), and continuous flow isotope ratio mass spectrometry (Brand, 1996) to develop proxy chronological, rainfall and growth rate estimates from tropical trees, even those lacking annual rings. The promise and pitfalls of the approach are illustrated in pilot datasets from the US, Costa Rica, Brazil, and Peru, which show isotopic cycles of 4-6 per mil, and interannual anomalies of up to 8 per mil. Together with the mature ENSO proxies (corals, extratropical tree-rings, varved sediments, and ice cores), replicated and well-dated stable isotope chronologies from tropical trees may eventually improve our understanding of ENSO history over the past several hundred years.

  1. Understanding ENSO dynamics through the exploration of past climates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Phipps, Steven J; Brown, Jaclyn N

    2010-01-01

    The palaeoclimate record shows that significant changes in ENSO characteristics took place during the Holocene. Exploring these changes, using both data and models, provides a means of understanding ENSO dynamics. Previous modelling studies have suggested a mechanism whereby changes in the Earth's orbital geometry explain the strengthening of ENSO over the Holocene. Decreasing summer insolation over the Asian landmass resulted in a weakening of the Asian monsoon system. This led to a weakening of the easterly trade winds in the western Pacific, creating conditions more favourable for El Nino development. To explore this hypothesised forcing mechanism, we use a climate system model to conduct a suite of simulations of the climate of the past 8,000 years. In the early Holocene, we find that the Asian summer monsoon system is intensified, resulting in an amplification of the easterly trade winds in the western Pacific. The stronger trade winds represent a barrier to the eastward propagation of westerly wind bursts, therefore inhibiting the onset of El Nino events. The fundamental behaviour of ENSO remains unchanged, with the major change over the Holocene being the influence of the background state of the Pacific on the susceptibility of the ocean to the initiation of El Nino events.

  2. The complex influence of ENSO on droughts in Ecuador

    KAUST Repository

    Vicente-Serrano, S. M.; Aguilar, E.; Martí nez, R.; Martí n-Herná ndez, N.; Azorin-Molina, C.; Sanchez-Lorenzo, A.; El Kenawy, Ahmed M.; Tomá s-Burguera, M.; Moran-Tejeda, E.; Ló pez-Moreno, J. I.; Revuelto, J.; Beguerí a, S.; Nieto, J. J.; Drumond, A.; Gimeno, L.; Nieto, R.

    2016-01-01

    of precipitation and air temperature by means of the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index. In addition, the propagation of two different ENSO indices (El Niño 3.4 and El Niño 1 + 2 indices) and other atmospheric circulation processes (e.g., vertical

  3. The El Niño Southern Oscillation index and wildfire prediction in British Columbia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Xu, Zhen; Kooten, van G.C.

    2014-01-01

    This study investigates the potential to predict monthly wildfires and area burned in British Columbia's interior using El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB) and the generalized Pareto (GP) distributions are used, respectively, to account for uncertainty in

  4. Strategic adaptation of nitrogen management for el nino southern oscillation-induced winter wheat system

    Science.gov (United States)

    The rainfall anomaly (RA) associated with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has various unwanted impacts on agricultural system globally. The loss of inorganic nitrogen (N) depending on extreme wet or dry conditions is a major concern. The main objective of this study was to adapt site-specific N ...

  5. The Solar and Southern Oscillation Components in the Satellite Altimetry Data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Howard, Daniel; Shaviv, Nir J.; Svensmark, Henrik

    2015-01-01

    altimetry data can be explained as the combined effect of both the solar forcing and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The phase of the solar component can be used to derive the different steric and eustatic contributions. We find that the peak to peak radiative forcing associated with the solar...

  6. A pan-tropical cascade of fire driven by El Niño/Southern Oscillation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Chen, Yang; Morton, Douglas C.; Andela, Niels; Van Der Werf, Guido R.; Giglio, Louis; Randerson, James T.

    2017-01-01

    The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has a pronounced influence on year-to-year variations in climate 1 . The response of fires to this forcing 2 is complex and has not been evaluated systematically across different continents. Here we use satellite data to create a climatology of burned-area and

  7. Asian droughts in the last millennium: a search for robust impacts of Pacific Ocean surface temperature variabilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Entao; King, Martin P.; Sobolowski, Stefan; Otterå, Odd Helge; Gao, Yongqi

    2018-06-01

    This study investigates the robustness of hydroclimate impacts in Asia due to major drivers of climate variability in the Pacific Ocean, namely the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Composite analyses are carried out on a tree ring-based Palmer Drought Severity Index as well as on a long coupled global climate model control experiment. El Niño (La Niña) has a robust impact on wet (dry) conditions in West Asia and dry (wet) conditions in South Asia. For the PDO, impacts are found throughout the Asia domain. However, identifying the robust signals due to PDO from these analyses is more challenging due to the limited lengths of the data. Results indicate that West Asia (South and Southeast Asia) experiences wet (dry) conditions during periods of positive PDO. For East Asia, there is indication that positive (negative) PDO is associated with wet (dry) conditions around and southward of 30°N and dry (wet) conditions north of this latitude. This result is consistent with the current understanding of the role of PDO in the "southern-flood northern-drought" phenomenon in China. We suggest that specific extreme events or periods have regional impacts with strong intensities that cannot be fully explained through the composite analysis of ENSO, PDO, or any combination thereof. Two such examples are shown to illustrate this: the Strange Parallel Drought (1756-1768 CE) and the Great Drought (1876-1878 CE). Additionally, during these climate events, ENSO and PDO can be in phases which are not consistent with the required phases of these drivers that explain the concurrent drought and pluvial conditions in Asia. Therefore, not all historical drought and pluvial events in Northeast Asia and northern China can be related back to ENSO or PDO. Finally, we also examine the dynamical characteristics of the reported hydroclimatic impacts in the global climate model experiment. There is moisture transport into (out of) regions that exhibit

  8. El Niño/Southern Oscillation response to global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Latif, M.; Keenlyside, N. S.

    2009-01-01

    The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, originating in the Tropical Pacific, is the strongest natural interannual climate signal and has widespread effects on the global climate system and the ecology of the Tropical Pacific. Any strong change in ENSO statistics will therefore have serious climatic and ecological consequences. Most global climate models do simulate ENSO, although large biases exist with respect to its characteristics. The ENSO response to global warming differs strongly from model to model and is thus highly uncertain. Some models simulate an increase in ENSO amplitude, others a decrease, and others virtually no change. Extremely strong changes constituting tipping point behavior are not simulated by any of the models. Nevertheless, some interesting changes in ENSO dynamics can be inferred from observations and model integrations. Although no tipping point behavior is envisaged in the physical climate system, smooth transitions in it may give rise to tipping point behavior in the biological, chemical, and even socioeconomic systems. For example, the simulated weakening of the Pacific zonal sea surface temperature gradient in the Hadley Centre model (with dynamic vegetation included) caused rapid Amazon forest die-back in the mid-twenty-first century, which in turn drove a nonlinear increase in atmospheric CO2, accelerating global warming. PMID:19060210

  9. Increasing water cycle extremes in California and in relation to ENSO cycle under global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoon, Jin-Ho; Wang, S-Y Simon; Gillies, Robert R.; Kravitz, Ben; Hipps, Lawrence; Rasch, Philip J.

    2015-01-01

    Since the winter of 2013–2014, California has experienced its most severe drought in recorded history, causing statewide water stress, severe economic loss and an extraordinary increase in wildfires. Identifying the effects of global warming on regional water cycle extremes, such as the ongoing drought in California, remains a challenge. Here we analyse large-ensemble and multi-model simulations that project the future of water cycle extremes in California as well as to understand those associations that pertain to changing climate oscillations under global warming. Both intense drought and excessive flooding are projected to increase by at least 50% towards the end of the twenty-first century; this projected increase in water cycle extremes is associated with a strengthened relation to El Niño and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO)—in particular, extreme El Niño and La Niña events that modulate California's climate not only through its warm and cold phases but also its precursor patterns. PMID:26487088

  10. Hydroclimate variability: comparing dendroclimatic records and future GCM scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lapp, S.

    2008-01-01

    Drought events of the 20th Century in western North America have been linked to teleconnections that influence climate variability on inter-annual and decadal to multi-decadal time scales. These teleconnections represent the changes sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the tropical and extra-tropical regions of the Pacific Ocean, ENSO (El-Nino Southern Oscillation) and PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation), respectively, and the Atlantic Ocean, AMO (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation), and also to atmospheric circulation patterns (PNA: Pacific-North American). A network of precipitation sensitive tree-ring chronologies from Montana, Alberta, Saskatchewan and NWT highly correlate to the climate moisture index (CMI) of precipitation potential evapotranspiration (P-PET), thus, capturing the long-term hydroclimatic variability of the region. Reconstructions of annual and seasonal CMI identify drought events in previous centuries that are more extreme in magnitude, frequency and duration than recorded during the instrumental period. Variability in the future climate will include these natural climate cycles as well as modulations of these cycles affected by human induced global warming. The proxy hydroclimate records derived from tree-rings present information on decadal and multi-decadal hydroclimatic variability for the past millennium; therefore, providing a unique opportunity to validate the climate variability simulated by GCMs (Global Climate Models) on longer time scales otherwise constrained by the shorter observation records. Developing scenarios of future variability depends: 1) on our understanding of the interaction of these teleconnection; and, 2) to identify climate models that are able to accurately simulate the hydroclimatic variability as detected in the instrumental and proxy records. (author)

  11. Asymptotic solution for the El Niño time delay sea—air oscillator model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mo Jia-Qi; Lin Wan-Tao; Lin Yi-Hua

    2011-01-01

    A sea—air oscillator model is studied using the time delay theory. The aim is to find an asymptotic solving method for the El Niño-southern oscillation (ENSO) model. Employing the perturbed method, an asymptotic solution of the corresponding problem is obtained. Thus we can obtain the prognoses of the sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly and the related physical quantities. (general)

  12. Oscillator monitor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McNeill, G.A.

    1981-01-01

    Present high-speed data acquisition systems in nuclear diagnostics use high-frequency oscillators to provide timing references for signals recorded on fast, traveling-wave oscilloscopes. An oscillator's sinusoidal wave shape is superimposed on the recorded signal with each cycle representing a fixed time increment. During data analysis the sinusoid is stripped from the signal, leaving a clean signal shape with known timing. Since all signal/time relationships are totally dependant upon working oscillators, these critical devices must have remote verification of proper operation. This manual presents the newly-developed oscillator monitor which will provide the required verification

  13. Pulsating variables

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1989-01-01

    The study of stellar pulsations is a major route to the understanding of stellar structure and evolution. At the South African Astronomical Observatory (SAAO) the following stellar pulsation studies were undertaken: rapidly oscillating Ap stars; solar-like oscillations in stars; 8-Scuti type variability in a classical Am star; Beta Cephei variables; a pulsating white dwarf and its companion; RR Lyrae variables and galactic Cepheids. 4 figs

  14. El Niño-Southern Oscillation and dengue early warning in Ecuador

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stewart, A. M.; Lowe, R.

    2012-04-01

    Dengue fever, a mosquito-borne viral disease, is one of the most important emerging tropical diseases. Dengue is hyper-endemic in coastal Ecuador, where all four serotypes co-circulate. The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influences climate in Ecuador, with positive phase ENSO (El Niño) associated with wetter and warmer conditions over the southern coastal region. In turn, greater rainfall increases the availability of mosquito breeding sites for the dengue mosquito (Aedes aegypti), while warmer temperatures increase rates of larval development, mosquito biting, and viral replication in the mosquito. We report a statistical model for assessing the importance of climate as a driver for inter-annual variability in dengue fever in southern coastal Ecuador. Climate variables from a local meteorology station (precipitation, number of rainy days, minimum/maximum/mean air temperature), combined with gridded climate products, and anomalies of Pacific sea surface temperatures (Oceanic Niño Index, ONI) were used to predict monthly dengue standardized morbidity ratios (SMR) (1995-2010). Non-climatic confounding factors such as serotype introduction and vector control effort were also considered. Preliminary results indicated a statistically significant positive association between dengue risk and the number of rainy days during the previous month. Both the number of rainy days and dengue SMR were positively associated with the Pacific SST anomalies with a lead time of several months. Due to time lags involved in the climate-disease transmission system, monitoring El Niño / La Niña evolution in the Pacific Ocean could provide some predictive lead time for forecasting dengue epidemics. This is the first study of dengue fever and climate in this region. This research provides the foundation to develop a climate-driven early warning system for dengue fever in Ecuador.

  15. Dengue dynamics in Binh Thuan province, southern Vietnam: periodicity, synchronicity and climate variability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thai, Khoa T D; Cazelles, Bernard; Nguyen, Nam Van; Vo, Long Thi; Boni, Maciej F; Farrar, Jeremy; Simmons, Cameron P; van Doorn, H Rogier; de Vries, Peter J

    2010-07-13

    Dengue is a major global public health problem with increasing incidence and geographic spread. The epidemiology is complex with long inter-epidemic intervals and endemic with seasonal fluctuations. This study was initiated to investigate dengue transmission dynamics in Binh Thuan province, southern Vietnam. Wavelet analyses were performed on time series of monthly notified dengue cases from January 1994 to June 2009 (i) to detect and quantify dengue periodicity, (ii) to describe synchrony patterns in both time and space, (iii) to investigate the spatio-temporal waves and (iv) to associate the relationship between dengue incidence and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) indices in Binh Thuan province, southern Vietnam. We demonstrate a continuous annual mode of oscillation and a multi-annual cycle of around 2-3-years was solely observed from 1996-2001. Synchrony in time and between districts was detected for both the annual and 2-3-year cycle. Phase differences used to describe the spatio-temporal patterns suggested that the seasonal wave of infection was either synchronous among all districts or moving away from Phan Thiet district. The 2-3-year periodic wave was moving towards, rather than away from Phan Thiet district. A strong non-stationary association between ENSO indices and climate variables with dengue incidence in the 2-3-year periodic band was found. A multi-annual mode of oscillation was observed and these 2-3-year waves of infection probably started outside Binh Thuan province. Associations with climatic variables were observed with dengue incidence. Here, we have provided insight in dengue population transmission dynamics over the past 14.5 years. Further studies on an extensive time series dataset are needed to test the hypothesis that epidemics emanate from larger cities in southern Vietnam.

  16. Dengue dynamics in Binh Thuan province, southern Vietnam: periodicity, synchronicity and climate variability.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Khoa T D Thai

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available Dengue is a major global public health problem with increasing incidence and geographic spread. The epidemiology is complex with long inter-epidemic intervals and endemic with seasonal fluctuations. This study was initiated to investigate dengue transmission dynamics in Binh Thuan province, southern Vietnam.Wavelet analyses were performed on time series of monthly notified dengue cases from January 1994 to June 2009 (i to detect and quantify dengue periodicity, (ii to describe synchrony patterns in both time and space, (iii to investigate the spatio-temporal waves and (iv to associate the relationship between dengue incidence and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO indices in Binh Thuan province, southern Vietnam.We demonstrate a continuous annual mode of oscillation and a multi-annual cycle of around 2-3-years was solely observed from 1996-2001. Synchrony in time and between districts was detected for both the annual and 2-3-year cycle. Phase differences used to describe the spatio-temporal patterns suggested that the seasonal wave of infection was either synchronous among all districts or moving away from Phan Thiet district. The 2-3-year periodic wave was moving towards, rather than away from Phan Thiet district. A strong non-stationary association between ENSO indices and climate variables with dengue incidence in the 2-3-year periodic band was found.A multi-annual mode of oscillation was observed and these 2-3-year waves of infection probably started outside Binh Thuan province. Associations with climatic variables were observed with dengue incidence. Here, we have provided insight in dengue population transmission dynamics over the past 14.5 years. Further studies on an extensive time series dataset are needed to test the hypothesis that epidemics emanate from larger cities in southern Vietnam.

  17. Chromospheric oscillations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lites, B.W.; Rutten, R.J.; Thomas, J.H.

    1995-01-01

    We show results from SO/Sacramento Peak data to discuss three issues: (i)--the spatial occurrence of chromospheric 3--min oscillations; (ii)--the validity of Ca II H&K line-center Doppler Shift measurements; (iii)--the signi ?cance of oscillation power and phase at frequencies above 10 mHz.

  18. Inverted oscillator

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yuce, C [Physics Department, Anadolu University, Eskisehir (Turkey); Kilic, A [Physics Department, Anadolu University, Eskisehir (Turkey); Coruh, A [Physics Department, Sakarya University, Sakarya (Turkey)

    2006-07-15

    The inverted harmonic oscillator problem is investigated quantum mechanically. The exact wavefunction for the confined inverted oscillator is obtained and it is shown that the associated energy eigenvalues are discrete, and the energy is given as a linear function of the quantum number n.

  19. High-Resolution Modeling of ENSO-Induced Precipitation in the Tropical Andes: Implications for Proxy Interpretation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kiefer, J.; Karamperidou, C.

    2017-12-01

    Clastic sediment flux into high-elevation Andean lakes is controlled by glacial processes and soil erosion caused by high precipitation events, making these lakes suitable archives of past climate. To wit, sediment records from Laguna Pallcacocha in Ecuador have been interpreted as proxies of ENSO variability, owing to increased precipitation in the greater region during El Niño events. However, the location of the lake's watershed, the presence of glaciers, and the different impacts of ENSO on precipitation in the eastern vs western Andes have challenged the suitability of the Pallcacocha record as an ENSO proxy. Here, we employ WRF, a high-resolution regional mesoscale weather prediction model, to investigate the circulation dynamics, sources of moisture, and resulting precipitation response in the L. Pallcacocha region during different flavors of El Niño and La Niña events, and in the presence or absence of ice caps. In patricular, we investigate Eastern Pacific (EP), Central Pacific (CP), coastal El Niño, and La Niña events. We validate the model simulations against spatially interpolated station measurements and reanalysis data. We find that during EP events, moisture is primarily advected from the Pacific, whereas during CP events, moisture primarily originates from the Atlantic. More moisture is available during EP events, which implies higher precipitation rates. Furthermore, we find that precipitation during EP events is mostly non-convective in contrast to primarily convective precipitation during CP events. Finally, a synthesis of the sedimentary record and the EP:CP ratio of accumulated precipitation and specific humidity in the L. Pallcacocha region allows us to assess whether past changes in the relative frequency of the two ENSO flavors may have been recorded in paleoclimate archives in this region.

  20. Revisiting Cholera-Climate Teleconnections in the Native Homeland: ENSO and other Extremes through the Regional Hydroclimatic Drivers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akanda, A. S.; Jutla, A.; Huq, A.; Colwell, R. R.

    2014-12-01

    Cholera is a global disease, with significantly large outbreaks occurring since the 1990s, notably in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia and recently in Haiti, in the Caribbean. Critical knowledge gaps remain in the understanding of the annual recurrence in endemic areas and the nature of epidemic outbreaks, especially those that follow extreme hydroclimatic events. Teleconnections with large-scale climate phenomena affecting regional scale hydroclimatic drivers of cholera dynamics remain largely unexplained. For centuries, the Bengal delta region has been strongly influenced by the asymmetric availability of water in the rivers Ganges and the Brahmaputra. As these two major rivers are known to have strong contrasting affects on local cholera dynamics in the region, we argue that the role of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), or other phenomena needs to be interpreted in the context of the seasonal role of individual rivers and subsequent impact on local environmental processes, not as a teleconnection having a remote and unified effect. We present a modified hypothesis that the influences of large-scale climate phenomena such as ENSO and IOD on Bengal cholera can be explicitly identified and incorporated through regional scale hydroclimatic drivers. Here, we provide an analytical review of the literature addressing cholera and climate linkages and present hypotheses, based on recent evidence, and quantification on the role of regional scale hydroclimatic drivers of cholera. We argue that the seasonal changes in precipitation and temperature, and resulting river discharge in the GBM basin region during ENSO and IOD events have a dominant combined effect on the endemic persistence and the epidemic vulnerability to cholera outbreaks in spring and fall seasons, respectively, that is stronger than the effect of localized hydrological and socio-economic sensitivities in Bangladesh. In addition, systematic identification of underlying seasonal

  1. Stochastic and Chaotic Relaxation Oscillations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Grasman, J.; Roerdink, J.B.T.M.

    1988-01-01

    For relaxation oscillators stochastic and chaotic dynamics are investigated. The effect of random perturbations upon the period is computed. For an extended system with additional state variables chaotic behavior can be expected. As an example, the Van der Pol oscillator is changed into a

  2. Ocean-atmosphere forcing of centennial hydroclimatic variability in the Pacific Northwest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steinman, Byron A.; Abbott, Mark B.; Mann, Michael E.; Ortiz, Joseph D.; Feng, Song; Pompeani, David P.; Stansell, Nathan D.; Anderson, Lesleigh; Finney, Bruce P.; Bird, Broxton W.

    2014-01-01

    Reconstructing centennial timescale hydroclimate variability during the late Holocene is critically important for understanding large-scale patterns of drought and their relationship with climate dynamics. We present sediment oxygen isotope records spanning the last two millennia from 10 lakes, as well as climate model simulations, indicating that the Little Ice Age was dry relative to the Medieval Climate Anomaly in much of the Pacific Northwest of North America. This pattern is consistent with observed associations between the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Northern Annular Mode and drought as well as with proxy-based reconstructions of Pacific ocean-atmosphere variations over the past 1000 years. The large amplitude of centennial variability indicated by the lake data suggests that regional hydroclimate is characterized by longer-term shifts in ENSO-like dynamics, and that an improved understanding of the centennial timescale relationship between external forcing and drought conditions is necessary for projecting future hydroclimatic conditions in western North America.

  3. ENSO impact on hydrology in Peru

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lavado-Casimiro, W. S.; Felipe, O.; Silvestre, E.; Bourrel, L.

    2013-04-01

    The El Niño and La Niña impacts on the hydrology of Peru were assessed based on discharge data (1968-2006) of 20 river catchments distributed over three drainage regions in Peru: 14 in the Pacific Coast (PC), 3 in the Lake Titicaca (TL) region, and 3 in the Amazonas (AM). To classify the El Niño and La Niña events, we used the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) based on hydrological years (September to August). Using the SOI values, the events were re-classified as strong El Niño (SEN), moderate El Niño (MEN), normal years (N), moderate La Niña (MLN) and strong La Niña (SLN). On average during the SEN years, sharp increases occurred in the discharges in the north central area of the PC and decreases in the remaining discharge stations that were analyzed, while in the years of MEN events, these changes show different responses than those of the SEN. During the years classified as La Niña, positive changes are mostly observed in the majority of the stations in the rivers located in the center of Peru's Pacific Coast. Another important result of this work is that the Ilave River (south of the Titicaca watershed) shows higher positive (negative) impacts during La Niña (El Niño) years, a fact that is not clearly seen in the rivers of the northern part of the Titicaca watershed (Ramis and Huancane rivers).

  4. Changes in ENSO amplitude under climate warming and cooling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Yingying; Luo, Yiyong; Lu, Jian; Liu, Fukai

    2018-05-01

    The response of ENSO amplitude to climate warming and cooling is investigated using the Community Earth System Model (CESM), in which the warming and cooling scenarios are designed by adding heat fluxes of equal amplitude but opposite sign onto the ocean surface, respectively. Results show that the warming induces an increase of the ENSO amplitude but the cooling gives rise to a decrease of the ENSO amplitude, and these changes are robust in statistics. A mixed layer heat budget analysis finds that the increasing (decreasing) SST tendency under climate warming (cooling) is mainly due to an enhancement (weakening) of dynamical feedback processes over the equatorial Pacific, including zonal advective (ZA) feedback, meridional advective (MA) feedback, thermocline (TH) feedback, and Ekman (EK) feedback. As the climate warms, a wind anomaly of the same magnitude across the equatorial Pacific can induce a stronger zonal current change in the east (i.e., a stronger ZA feedback), which in turn produces a greater weakening of upwelling (i.e., a stronger EK feedback) and thus a larger thermocline change (i.e., a stronger TH feedback). In response to the climate warming, in addition, the MA feedback is also strengthened due to an enhancement of the meridional SST gradient around the equator resulting from a weakening of the subtropical cells (STCs). It should be noted that the weakened STCs itself has a negative contribution to the change of the MA feedback which, however, appears to be secondary. And vice versa for the cooling case. Bjerknes linear stability (BJ) index is also evaluated for the linear stability of ENSO, with remarkably larger (smaller) BJ index found for the warming (cooling) case.

  5. Bifurcation analysis of delay-induced resonances of the El-Niño Southern Oscillation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krauskopf, Bernd; Sieber, Jan

    2014-09-08

    Models of global climate phenomena of low to intermediate complexity are very useful for providing an understanding at a conceptual level. An important aspect of such models is the presence of a number of feedback loops that feature considerable delay times, usually due to the time it takes to transport energy (for example, in the form of hot/cold air or water) around the globe. In this paper, we demonstrate how one can perform a bifurcation analysis of the behaviour of a periodically forced system with delay in dependence on key parameters. As an example, we consider the El-Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which is a sea-surface temperature (SST) oscillation on a multi-year scale in the basin of the Pacific Ocean. One can think of ENSO as being generated by an interplay between two feedback effects, one positive and one negative, which act only after some delay that is determined by the speed of transport of SST anomalies across the Pacific. We perform here a case study of a simple delayed-feedback oscillator model for ENSO, which is parametrically forced by annual variation. More specifically, we use numerical bifurcation analysis tools to explore directly regions of delay-induced resonances and other stability boundaries in this delay-differential equation model for ENSO.

  6. Study of the global and regional climatic impacts of ENSO magnitude using SPEEDY AGCM

    KAUST Repository

    Dogar, Muhammad Mubashar; Kucharski, Fred; Azharuddin, Syed

    2017-01-01

    ENSO is considered as a strong atmospheric teleconnection that has pronounced global and regional circulation effects. It modifies global monsoon system, especially, Asian and African monsoons. Previous studies suggest that both the frequency and magnitude of ENSO events have increased over the last few decades resulting in a need to study climatic impacts of ENSO magnitude both at global and regional scales. Hence, to better understand the impact of ENSO amplitude over the tropical and extratropical regions focussing on the Asian and African domains, ENSO sensitivity experiments are conducted using ICTPAGCM (‘SPEEDY’). It is anticipated that the tropical Pacific SST forcing will be enough to produce ENSO-induced teleconnection patterns; therefore, the model is forced using NINO3.4 regressed SST anomalies over the tropical Pacific only. SPEEDY reproduces the impact of ENSO over the Pacific, North and South America and African regions very well. However, it underestimates ENSO teleconnection patterns and associated changes over South Asia, particularly in the Indian region, which suggests that the tropical Pacific SST forcing is not sufficient to represent ENSO-induced teleconnection patterns over South Asia. Therefore, SST forcing over the tropical Indian Ocean together with air–sea coupling is also required for better representation of ENSO-induced changes in these regions. Moreover, results obtained by this pacemaker experiment show that ENSO impacts are relatively stronger over the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) compared to extratropics and high latitude regions. The positive phase of ENSO causes weakening in rainfall activity over African tropical rain belt, parts of South and Southeast Asia, whereas, the La Niña phase produces more rain over these regions during the summer season. Model results further reveal that ENSO magnitude has a stronger impact over African Sahel and South Asia, especially over the Indian region because of its significant

  7. Study of the global and regional climatic impacts of ENSO magnitude using SPEEDY AGCM

    KAUST Repository

    Dogar, Muhammad Mubashar

    2017-03-09

    ENSO is considered as a strong atmospheric teleconnection that has pronounced global and regional circulation effects. It modifies global monsoon system, especially, Asian and African monsoons. Previous studies suggest that both the frequency and magnitude of ENSO events have increased over the last few decades resulting in a need to study climatic impacts of ENSO magnitude both at global and regional scales. Hence, to better understand the impact of ENSO amplitude over the tropical and extratropical regions focussing on the Asian and African domains, ENSO sensitivity experiments are conducted using ICTPAGCM (‘SPEEDY’). It is anticipated that the tropical Pacific SST forcing will be enough to produce ENSO-induced teleconnection patterns; therefore, the model is forced using NINO3.4 regressed SST anomalies over the tropical Pacific only. SPEEDY reproduces the impact of ENSO over the Pacific, North and South America and African regions very well. However, it underestimates ENSO teleconnection patterns and associated changes over South Asia, particularly in the Indian region, which suggests that the tropical Pacific SST forcing is not sufficient to represent ENSO-induced teleconnection patterns over South Asia. Therefore, SST forcing over the tropical Indian Ocean together with air–sea coupling is also required for better representation of ENSO-induced changes in these regions. Moreover, results obtained by this pacemaker experiment show that ENSO impacts are relatively stronger over the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) compared to extratropics and high latitude regions. The positive phase of ENSO causes weakening in rainfall activity over African tropical rain belt, parts of South and Southeast Asia, whereas, the La Niña phase produces more rain over these regions during the summer season. Model results further reveal that ENSO magnitude has a stronger impact over African Sahel and South Asia, especially over the Indian region because of its significant

  8. ENSO signals on sea-surface salinity in the eastern tropical pacific ocean

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    1998-01-01

    types collected in the tropical Pacific are analyzed to assess the regional impacts of past (1972-1996 El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO events. Focus is made on the regional changes in sea-surface temperature and salinity. Commercial vessels were recently equipped with automated thermosalinographs which allows to monitor the location of salinity front along the Panama-Tahiti line, separating the Panama Gulf from the South Pacific water masses. The latitudinal change of the salinity front is well correlated with the latitudinal change of the ITCZ. Salinity distribution gives additional information on El-Niño development. How future real time SSS data might provide interesting information on the development of ENSO phenomenon in the eastern tropical Pacific area will be discussed.

  9. An improved ENSO simulation by representing chlorophyll-induced climate feedback in the NCAR Community Earth System Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kang, Xianbiao; Zhang, Rong-Hua; Gao, Chuan; Zhu, Jieshun

    2017-12-07

    The El Niño-Southern oscillation (ENSO) simulated in the Community Earth System Model of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR CESM) is much stronger than in reality. Here, satellite data are used to derive a statistical relationship between interannual variations in oceanic chlorophyll (CHL) and sea surface temperature (SST), which is then incorporated into the CESM to represent oceanic chlorophyll -induced climate feedback in the tropical Pacific. Numerical runs with and without the feedback (referred to as feedback and non-feedback runs) are performed and compared with each other. The ENSO amplitude simulated in the feedback run is more accurate than that in the non-feedback run; quantitatively, the Niño3 SST index is reduced by 35% when the feedback is included. The underlying processes are analyzed and the results show that interannual CHL anomalies exert a systematic modulating effect on the solar radiation penetrating into the subsurface layers, which induces differential heating in the upper ocean that affects vertical mixing and thus SST. The statistical modeling approach proposed in this work offers an effective and economical way for improving climate simulations.

  10. Chemical Oscillations

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    IMTECH),. Chandigarh. Praveen Kumar is pursuing his PhD in chemical dynamics at. Panjab University,. Chandigarh. Keywords. Chemical oscillations, autoca-. talYSis, Lotka-Volterra model, bistability, hysteresis, Briggs-. Rauscher reaction.

  11. Chemical Oscillations

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    the law of mass-action that every simple reaction approaches ... from thermodynamic equilibrium. Such oscillating systems cor- respond to thermodynamically open systems. .... experimentally observable, and the third is always unstable.

  12. Very low frequency oscillations in the power spectra of heart rate variability during dry supine immersion and exposure to non-hypoxic hypobaria.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tripathi, K K

    2011-06-01

    The origin of very low frequency (VLF) oscillations in the power spectra of heart rate variability (HRV) is controversial with possible mechanisms involving thermoregulation and/or renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system. Recently, a major contribution from vagal influences has been suggested. The present study investigated the behaviour of VLF (0.004-0.040 Hz) components of HRV power spectra in a group of healthy male volunteers during their exposure to (1) dry, supine, immersion in thermo-neutral water for 6 h (n = 7) and (2) non-hypoxic hypobaria (breathing 40-60% oxygen at 15,000' simulated in a decompression chamber) for 5 h (n = 15). The two manoeuvres are established to increase vagal outflow. During both the manoeuvres, all the frequency domain indices of HRV exhibited a significant increase. Increase in HRV was much more than that in the R-R interval. At 6 h of immersion, the R-R interval increased by ∼ 15% but the total power increased ∼ fourfold. Similarly, at 5 h of exposure to hypobaria, total power increased ∼ twofold with a very modest increase in an R-R of ∼ 9%. Increase in spectral power was appreciable even after normalization with mean R-R(2). Increase in VLF during immersion was more than reported during enalaprilat blockade of angiotensin convertase enzyme. Plasma renin activity did not vary during hypobaria. There was a significant increase in pNN50, an established marker of cardiac vagal activity. Centre frequencies of the spectra and slope (β) of the relation between log(PSD) and log(frequency) did not change. Results were supportive of the notion that the parasympathetic system is pre-potent to influence slower (than respiratory) frequency components in HRV spectrum. Additionally, such an effect was without a change in the time constant of effector responses or pacemaker frequencies of VLF and LF periodicities and HRV was not a simple linear surrogate for cardiac vagal effects. An invariance of spectral exponent (β) ruled out

  13. Paleoclimate Records from New Zealand Maar Lakes, Insights into ENSO Teleconnections and Climatic Events in the South (West) Pacific.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shulmeister, J.; Nobes, D. C.; Striewski, B.

    2008-05-01

    The maar craters of the New Zealand Auckland Volcanic Field (36.5°S, 174.5°E) contain some of the highest resolution late-Quaternary paleoclimate records in the Southern Hemisphere. Here we integrate laminae count results from recent drilling in the Hopua Crater with existing records from the nearby Onepoto Crater (Pepper et al., 2004). In total these records cover many thousands of years between the onset of the last glaciation maximum and the early mid-Holocene. The cores are strongly laminated. Individual laminae in both craters are very fine (sub-mm to mm scale) and form couplets which comprise a darker mineralogenic rich layer and a lighter diatomaceous layer. In places these couplets are annual, and may reflect seasonal algal blooms, but in other sections of the record, notably through the late-Glacial and Holocene, the couplets are deposited at inter-annual time scales. Spectral analyses of couplet thickness counts using a fast Fourier transform (FFT) with 64 to 256-year running windows, and a 50 per cent overlap indicate strong spectral power during the LGM and markedly weaker power during both the deglaciation and early Holocene. In fact there is no spectral strength for most of these periods. Three brief (centennial duration) events punctuate this extended period of low spectral power. These occur at c. 16 ka, c. 14.8 ka and during the early Holocene. They display spectral power in the 5-7yr ENSO window and also at longer time intervals that may be consistent with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. We infer the local switching on (or up) of ENSO and PDO teleconnections and suspect these are embedded in circum-polar circulation changes. In addition to these spectral power episodes, there is a general increase in the number of couplet cycles per century between the deglaciation and the early mid-Holocene. This matches observations from Equador and Peru and suggests that trans-Pacific ENSO responses are in phase between western tropical South America and New

  14. Variability, trends, and teleconnections of stream flows with large-scale climate signals in the Omo-Ghibe River Basin, Ethiopia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Degefu, Mekonnen Adnew; Bewket, Woldeamlak

    2017-04-01

    This study assesses variability, trends, and teleconnections of stream flow with large-scale climate signals (global sea surface temperatures (SSTs)) for the Omo-Ghibe River Basin of Ethiopia. Fourteen hydrological indices of variability and extremes were defined from daily stream flow data series and analyzed for two common periods, which are 1972-2006 for 5 stations and 1982-2006 for 15 stations. The Mann-Kendall's test was used to detect trends at 0.05 significance level, and simple correlation analysis was applied to evaluate associations between the selected stream flow indices and SSTs. We found weak and mixed (upward and downward) trend signals for annual and wet (Kiremt) season flows. Indices generated for high-flow (flood) magnitudes showed the same weak trend signals. However, trend tests for flood frequencies and low-flow magnitudes showed little evidences of increasing change. It was also found that El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) are the major anomalies affecting stream flow variability in the Omo-Ghibe Basin. The strongest associations are observed between ENSO/Niño3.4 and the stream flow in August and September, mean Kiremt flow (July-September), and flood frequency (peak over threshold on average three peaks per year (POT3_Fre)). The findings of this study provide a general overview on the long-term stream flow variability and predictability of stream flows for the Omo-Ghibe River Basin.

  15. El Niño-Southern Oscillation effect on quasi-biennial oscillations of temperature diurnal tides in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Yang-Yi; Liu, Huixin; Miyoshi, Yasunobu; Liu, Libo; Chang, Loren C.

    2018-05-01

    In this study, we evaluate the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) signals in the two dominant temperature diurnal tides, diurnal westward wavenumber 1 (DW1) and diurnal eastward wavenumber 3 (DE3) on the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) scale (18-34 months) from 50 to 100 km altitudes. The tides are derived from the 21-year (January 1996-February 2017) Ground-to-Topside model of Atmosphere and Ionosphere for Aeronomy (GAIA) temperature simulations and 15-year (February 2002-February 2017) Thermosphere Ionosphere Mesosphere Energetics and Dynamics (TIMED)/Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) temperature observations. The results show that ENSO warm phases shorten the period ( 2 years) of the QBO in DW1 amplitude near the equator and DE3 amplitude at low latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. In contrast, the QBO period lengthens ( 2.5 years) during the ENSO neutral and cold phases. Correlation analysis shows the long-lasting effect of ENSO on the tidal QBO in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere.[Figure not available: see fulltext.

  16. Role of the Indian Ocean on the southern oscillation, atmospheric circulation indices and monsoon rainfall over India

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Sadhuram, Y.; Wells, N.C.

    Oscillation and ENSO is also examined. Indian monsoon rainfall is strongly and positively correlated with the SST of November month (0.77; statistically significant at 99% level) of the preceding calendar year. Monsoon indices (M1, U200) are strongly...

  17. Microplankton biomass and diversity in the Vietnamese upwelling area during SW monsoon under normal conditions and after an ENSO event

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Loick-Wilde, Natalie; Bombar, Deniz; Doan, Hai Nhu

    2017-01-01

    to show how climatological-driven changes can have a significant influence on the distribution of microplankton communities and their biomass via its impact on nutrient concentrations in the water column. The first summer in July 2003 followed a weak El-Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event...... (10–20 µm) prevailed ubiquitously during reduced upwelling. During normal upwelling, the diatom Rhizosolenia sp. dominated the cell-carbon biomass in the silicate poor upwelling waters. Trichodesmium erythraeum dominated in the Mekong-influenced and nutrient depleted offshore waters, where it co......Investigating microplankton biomass and diversity under different climatological conditions is key to the understanding of cascading effects of climate change on nutrient cycles and biological productivity. Here we have used data collected during two contrasting summers along the coast of Viet Nam...

  18. Interannual Variability of the Tropical Water Cycle: Capabilities in the TRMM Era and Challenges for GPM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robertson, Franklin R.

    2003-01-01

    Considerable uncertainty surrounds the issue of whether precipitation over the tropical oceans (30" NE) systematically changes with interannual sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies that accompany El Nino (warm) and La Nina (cold) events. Although it is well documented that El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events with marked SST changes over the tropical oceans, produce significant regional changes in precipitation, water vapor, and radiative fluxes in the tropics, we still cannot yet adequately quantify the associated net integrated changes to water and heat balance over the entire tropical oceanic or land sectors. Robertson et al., [2001 GRL] for example, showed that substantial disagreement exists among contemporary satellite estimates of interannual variations in tropical rainfall that are associated with SST changes. Berg et al., [2002 J. Climate] have documented the distinct differences between precipitation structure over the eastern and western Pacific ITCZ and noted how various satellite precipitation algorithms may respond quite differently to ENSO modulations of these precipitation regimes. Resolving this uncertainty is important since precipitation and latent heat release variations over land and ocean sectors are key components of the tropical heat balance in its most aggregated form. Rainfall estimates from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Precipitation Radar (PR) averaged over the tropical oceans have not solved this issue and, in fact, show marked differences with estimates from two TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) passive microwave algorithms. In this paper we will focus on findings that uncertainties in microphysical assumptions necessitated by the single-frequency PR measurement pose difficulties for detecting climate-related precipitation signals. Recent work has shown that path-integrated attenuation derived from the effects of precipitation on the radar return from the ocean surface exhibits interannual variability that agrees

  19. A 500 kyr record of global sea-level oscillations in the Gulf of Lion, Mediterranean Sea: new insights into MIS 3 sea-level variability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Frigola

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Borehole PRGL1-4 drilled in the upper slope of the Gulf of Lion provides an exceptional record to investigate the impact of late Pleistocene orbitally-driven glacio-eustatic sea-level oscillations on the sedimentary outbuilding of a river fed continental margin. High-resolution grain-size and geochemical records supported by oxygen isotope chronostratigraphy allow reinterpreting the last 500 ka upper slope seismostratigraphy of the Gulf of Lion. Five main sequences, stacked during the sea-level lowering phases of the last five glacial-interglacial 100-kyr cycles, form the upper stratigraphic outbuilding of the continental margin. The high sensitivity of the grain-size record down the borehole to sea-level oscillations can be explained by the great width of the Gulf of Lion continental shelf. Sea level driven changes in accommodation space over the shelf cyclically modified the depositional mode of the entire margin. PRGL1-4 data also illustrate the imprint of sea-level oscillations at millennial time-scale, as shown for Marine Isotopic Stage 3, and provide unambiguous evidence of relative high sea-levels at the onset of each Dansgaard-Oeschger Greenland warm interstadial. The PRGL1-4 grain-size record represents the first evidence for a one-to-one coupling of millennial time-scale sea-level oscillations associated with each Dansgaard-Oeschger cycle.

  20. ENSO Weather and Coral Bleaching on the Great Barrier Reef, Australia

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGowan, Hamish; Theobald, Alison

    2017-10-01

    The most devastating mass coral bleaching has occurred during El Niño events, with bleaching reported to be a direct result of increased sea surface temperatures (SSTs). However, El Niño itself does not cause SSTs to rise in all regions that experience bleaching. Nor is the upper ocean warming trend of 0.11°C per decade since 1971, attributed to global warming, sufficient alone to exceed the thermal tolerance of corals. Here we show that weather patterns during El Niño that result in reduced cloud cover, higher than average air temperatures and higher than average atmospheric pressures, play a crucial role in determining the extent and location of coral bleaching on the world's largest coral reef system, the World Heritage Great Barrier Reef (GBR), Australia. Accordingly, synoptic-scale weather patterns and local atmosphere-ocean feedbacks related to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and not large-scale SST warming due to El Niño alone and/or global warming are often the cause of coral bleaching on the GBR.

  1. The forcing of monthly precipitation variability over Southwest Asia during the Boreal cold season

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoell, Andrew; Shukla, Shraddhanand; Barlow, Mathew; Cannon, Forest; Kelley, Colin; Funk, Christopher C.

    2015-01-01

    Southwest Asia, deemed as the region containing the countries of Afghanistan, Iran, Iraq and Pakistan, is water scarce and receives nearly 75% of its annual rainfall during8 the boreal cold season of November-April. The forcing of Southwest Asia precipitation has been previously examined for the entire boreal cold season from the perspective of climate variability originating over the Atlantic and tropical Indo-Pacific Oceans. Here, we examine the inter-monthly differences in precipitation variability over Southwest Asia and the atmospheric conditions directly responsible in forcing monthly November-April precipitation. Seasonally averaged November-April precipitation over Southwest Asia is significantly correlated with sea surface temperature (SST) patterns consistent with Pacific Decadal Variability (PDV), the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the warming trend of SST (Trend). On the contrary, the precipitation variability during individual months of November-April are unrelated and are correlated with SST signatures that include PDV, ENSO and Trend in different combinations. Despite strong inter-monthly differences in precipitation variability during November- April over Southwest Asia, similar atmospheric circulations, highlighted by a stationary equivalent barotropic Rossby wave centered over Iraq, force the monthly spatial distributions of precipitation. Tropospheric waves on the eastern side of the equivalent barotropic Rossby wave modifies the flux of moisture and advects the mean temperature gradient, resulting in temperature advection that is balanced by vertical motions over Southwest Asia. The forcing of monthly Southwest Asia precipitation by equivalent barotropic Rossby waves is different than the forcing by baroclinic Rossby waves associated with tropically-forced-only modes of climate variability.

  2. A comprehensive analysis of coherent rainfall patterns in China and potential drivers. Part I: Interannual variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stephan, Claudia Christine; Klingaman, Nicholas Pappas; Vidale, Pier Luigi; Turner, Andrew George; Demory, Marie-Estelle; Guo, Liang

    2018-06-01

    Interannual rainfall variability in China affects agriculture, infrastructure and water resource management. To improve its understanding and prediction, many studies have associated precipitation variability with particular causes for specific seasons and regions. Here, a consistent and objective method, Empirical Orthogonal Teleconnection (EOT) analysis, is applied to 1951-2007 high-resolution precipitation observations over China in all seasons. Instead of maximizing the explained space-time variance, the method identifies regions in China that best explain the temporal variability in domain-averaged rainfall. The EOT method is validated by the reproduction of known relationships to the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO): high positive correlations with ENSO are found in eastern China in winter, along the Yangtze River in summer, and in southeast China during spring. New findings include that wintertime rainfall variability along the southeast coast is associated with anomalous convection over the tropical eastern Atlantic and communicated to China through a zonal wavenumber-three Rossby wave. Furthermore, spring rainfall variability in the Yangtze valley is related to upper-tropospheric midlatitude perturbations that are part of a Rossby wave pattern with its origin in the North Atlantic. A circumglobal wave pattern in the northern hemisphere is also associated with autumn precipitation variability in eastern areas. The analysis is objective, comprehensive, and produces timeseries that are tied to specific locations in China. This facilitates the interpretation of associated dynamical processes, is useful for understanding the regional hydrological cycle, and allows the results to serve as a benchmark for assessing general circulation models.

  3. Nonlinear oscillations

    CERN Document Server

    Nayfeh, Ali Hasan

    1995-01-01

    Nonlinear Oscillations is a self-contained and thorough treatment of the vigorous research that has occurred in nonlinear mechanics since 1970. The book begins with fundamental concepts and techniques of analysis and progresses through recent developments and provides an overview that abstracts and introduces main nonlinear phenomena. It treats systems having a single degree of freedom, introducing basic concepts and analytical methods, and extends concepts and methods to systems having degrees of freedom. Most of this material cannot be found in any other text. Nonlinear Oscillations uses sim

  4. Remote SST Forcing and Local Land-Atmosphere Moisture Coupling as Drivers of Amazon Temperature and Carbon Cycle Variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levine, P. A.; Xu, M.; Chen, Y.; Randerson, J. T.; Hoffman, F. M.

    2017-12-01

    Interannual variability of climatic conditions in the Amazon rainforest is associated with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and ocean-atmosphere interactions in the North Atlantic. Sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in these remote ocean regions drive teleconnections with Amazonian surface air temperature (T), precipitation (P), and net ecosystem production (NEP). While SST-driven NEP anomalies have been primarily linked to T anomalies, it is unclear how much the T anomalies result directly from SST forcing of atmospheric circulation, and how much result indirectly from decreases in precipitation that, in turn, influence surface energy fluxes. Interannual variability of P associated with SST anomalies lead to variability in soil moisture (SM), which would indirectly affect T via partitioning of turbulent heat fluxes between the land surface and the atmosphere. To separate the direct and indirect influence of the SST signal on T and NEP, we performed a mechanism-denial experiment to decouple SST and SM anomalies. We used the Accelerated Climate Modeling for Energy (ACMEv0.3), with version 5 of the Community Atmosphere Model and version 4.5 of the Community Land Model. We forced the model with observed SSTs from 1982-2016. We found that SST and SM variability both contribute to T and NEP anomalies in the Amazon, with relative contributions depending on lag time and location within the Amazon basin. SST anomalies associated with ENSO drive most of the T variability at shorter lag times, while the ENSO-driven SM anomalies contribute more to T variability at longer lag times. SM variability and the resulting influence on T anomalies are much stronger in the eastern Amazon than in the west. Comparing modeled T with observations demonstrate that SST alone is sufficient for simulating the correct timing of T variability, but SM anomalies are necessary for simulating the correct magnitude of the T variability. Modeled NEP indicated that variability in carbon fluxes

  5. Role of the Angola Low in modulating southern African austral summer rainfall and relationships with synoptic and interannual modes of variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crétat, Julien; Pohl, Benjamin; Dieppois, Bastien

    2017-04-01

    The Angola Low has been suggested in many previous studies to be an important regional feature governing southern African rainfall variability during austral summer, which is, in particular, expressed through modulations of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) impacts on rainfall at the interannual timescale. Here, we analyse a variety of state-of-the-art reanalyses (NCEP2, ERA-Interim and MERRA2) and rainfall data (in situ rain-gauges and satellite-derived products) for: i) identifying the recurrent regimes of the Angola Low (position and intensity) at the daily timescale; ii) diagnosing how they modulate the spatio-temporal variability of austral summer rainfall; and iii) examining their relationships with synoptic convective regimes and ENSO, both at the interannual timescale. The recurrent regimes of the Angola Low are identified over the 1980-2015 period by applying a cluster analysis to daily 700-hPa wind vorticity anomalies over the Angola sector from November to March. The exact number and morphological properties of vorticity regimes vary significantly among the reanalyses, in particular when using the lowest spatial resolution reanalysis (i.e., NCEP2) that leads to detect less diversity, smoothest patterns and weakest intensity across the recurrent regimes. Despite such uncertainties, the regimes describing active Angola Low are quite robust among the reanalyses. Three preferential locations (locked over eastern Angola, shifted few degrees eastward or south-westward), which significantly impact on the rainfall spatial distribution over tropical and subtropical southern Africa, are identified. Independently from its location, Angola Low favours moisture advection from the southwest Indian Ocean and reduces moisture export towards the southeast Atlantic, hence contributing to increase moisture convergence over the subcontinent. Lead/lag correlations with synoptic convective regimes suggest that Angola Low may be a local precursor of tropical

  6. The large-scale ENSO event, the El Niño and other important regional features

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    1993-01-01

    Full Text Available L'EVENEMENT ENSO A GRANDE ECHELLE, EL NIÑO ET AUTRES CARACTERISTIQUES REGIONALES IMPORTANTES. En ce qui concerne cette activité, on a ramassé - et on continue de le faire - une information coordonnée et améliorée. Cependant, les informations année après année sur les changements climatiques en lien avec l’Oscillation du Sud (SO sont limitées de façon primaire à la période comprise entre l’année 622 et nos jours. La fluctuation océano-atmosphérique récurrente et à grande échelle, El Niño/ Oscillation du Sud (ENSO, qui se présente sous les basses latitudes depuis l’Afrique orientale vers l’est jusqu’aux Amériques, se manifeste en gros comme une «balançoire» dans les conditions océano-atmosphériques entre la zone de l’Océan Indien tropical et celles de l’Océan Pacifique tropical. L’ENSO est en lien avec une phase de bas indice de la SO et est associé, du côté occidental de la «balançoire», à une sécheresse en Australie occidentale et septentrionale, une sècheresse par l’est de la mousson en Indonésie, une pluie déficiente de la mousson-est d’été en Inde et une pluie déficiente de la mousson d’été dans la montagne éthiopienne (qui débouche sur une faible contribution au système du Nil. Par opposition, du côté oriental de la «balançoire», celle-ci est en lien avec El Niño, avec des températures superficielles de la mer (TSM anormalement hautes, des pluies au-dessus de la normale dans le Pacifique équatorial central et oriental et des pluies anormalement fortes dans le Chili sub-tropical. Le haut indice (phase anti-Niño de la SO est en lien, du côté occidental de la «balançoire», avec des pluies anormalement fortes en Australe orientale et septentrionale, des pluies de mousson de l’est anormalement fortes en Indonésie, des pluies de mousson d’été au-dessus de la normale en Inde, et une quantité d’eau anormalement grande qui se déverse dans le Nil, suite aux pluies de

  7. Imavere Sawmill is Stora Ensos Jewel in the Region / Seppo Vainio ; interv. Toivo Tänavsuu

    Index Scriptorium Estoniae

    Vainio, Seppo

    2004-01-01

    Skandinaavia metsanduskontserni Stora Enso Timberi tegevuse juht Baltikumis vastab küsimustele, mis puudutavad Eesti suurima metsatööstuse Sylvesteri ostu 2003. aastal, Baltikumi üksuste osa Stora Enso tegevuses, Imavere saeveski valimist aasta välisinvestoriks. Vt. samas: Imavere saeveski eile ja täna. Tabel: "Välisinvestor 2004" nominendid

  8. Reply to Comment on 'Drought Variability in the Eastern Australia and New Zealand Summer Drought Atlas (ANZDA, CE 1500-2012) Modulated by the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation'

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palmer, Jonathan G.; Cook, Edward R.; Turney, Chris S. M.; Allen, Kathy; Fenwick, Pavla; Cook, Benjamin I.; O'Donnell, Alison; Lough, Janice; Grierson, Pauline; Baker, Patrick J.

    2017-01-01

    This reply is in response to Vance et al (2017), who expressed concern that their Law Dome summer sea salt record (LDsss; Vance et al 2013) and two Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) reconstructions (PLF and DT-median; Vance et al 2015) were not compared properly in our recent study (Palmer et al 2015) describing the eastern Australian and New Zealand summer Drought Atlas (ANZDA) and that this omission mischaracterizes their records.

  9. Interannual Variability of Regional Hadley Circulation Intensity Over Western Pacific During Boreal Winter and Its Climatic Impact Over Asia-Australia Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Ruping; Chen, Shangfeng; Chen, Wen; Hu, Peng

    2018-01-01

    This study investigates interannual variability of boreal winter regional Hadley circulation over western Pacific (WPHC) and its climatic impacts. A WPHC intensity index (WPHCI) is defined as the vertical shear of the divergent meridional winds. It shows that WPHCI correlates well with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). To investigate roles of the ENSO-unrelated part of WPHCI (WPHCIres), variables that are linearly related to the Niño-3 index have been removed. It reveals that meridional sea surface temperature gradient over the western Pacific plays an essential role in modulating the WPHCIres. The climatic impacts of WPHCIres are further investigated. Below-normal (above-normal) precipitation appears over south China (North Australia) when WPHCIres is stronger. This is due to the marked convergence (divergence) anomalies at the upper troposphere, divergence (convergence) at the lower troposphere, and the accompanied downward (upward) motion over south China (North Australia), which suppresses (enhances) precipitation there. In addition, a pronounced increase in surface air temperature (SAT) appears over south and central China when WPHCIres is stronger. A temperature diagnostic analysis suggests that the increase in SAT tendency over central China is primarily due to the warm zonal temperature advection and subsidence-induced adiabatic heating. In addition, the increase in SAT tendency over south China is primarily contributed by the warm meridional temperature advection. Further analysis shows that the correlation of WPHCIres with the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) is weak. Thus, this study may provide additional sources besides EAWM and ENSO to improve understanding of the Asia-Australia climate variability.

  10. Diagnosis of the Asian summer monsoon variability and the climate prediction of monsoon precipitation via physical decomposition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lim, Young-Kwon

    This study investigates the space-time evolution of the dominant modes that constitute the Asian summer monsoon (ASM), and, as an ultimate goal, the climate prediction of the ASM rainfall. Precipitation and other synoptic variables during the prominent life cycle of the ASM (May 21 to September 17) are used to show the detailed features of dominant modes, which are identified as the seasonal cycle, the ISO defined by the 40--50 day intraseasonal oscillation including the Madden-Julian oscillation, and the El Nino mode. The present study reveals that the ISO is the second largest component of the ASM rainfall variation. Correlation analysis indicates that ISO explains a larger fraction of the variance of the observed precipitation (without climatology) than the ENSO mode. The dominant ISO signal faithfully explains the northward propagation of the ISO toward the Asian continent causing intraseasonal active/break periods. The interannual variation of the ISO strength suggests that the ENSO exerts some influence on the ISO. The composite convective ISO anomaly and Kelvin-Rossby wave response over the Indian Ocean shows that the ISO tends to be stronger during the early stage of the ASM than normal in El Nino (La Nina) years, indicating greater (smaller) possibility of ISO-related extreme rainfall over India, Bangladesh, and the Bay of Bengal. The ENSO mode reveals that the following factors affect the evolution of the ASM system in El Nino (La Nina) years. (1) The anomalous sea surface temperature and sea level pressure over the Indian Ocean during the early stage of the ASM weaken (enhance) the meridional pressure gradient. (2) As a result, the westerly jet and the ensuing moisture transport toward India and the Bay of Bengal become weak (strong) and delayed (expedited), providing a less (more) favorable condition for regional monsoon onsets. (3) The Walker circulation anomaly results in an enhanced subsidence (ascent) and drought (flood) over the Maritime continent

  11. The Response of African Land Surface Phenology to Large Scale Climate Oscillations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Molly E.; de Beurs, Kirsten; Vrieling, Anton

    2010-01-01

    Variations in agricultural production due to rainfall and temperature fluctuations are a primary cause of food insecurity on the African continent. Analysis of changes in phenology can provide quantitative information on the effect of climate variability on growing seasons in agricultural regions. Using a robust statistical methodology, we describe the relationship between phenology metrics derived from the 26 year AVHRR NDVI record and the North Atlantic Oscillation index (NAO), the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI). We map the most significant positive and negative correlation for the four climate indices in Eastern, Western and Southern Africa between two phenological metrics and the climate indices. Our objective is to provide evidence of whether climate variability captured in the four indices has had a significant impact on the vegetative productivity of Africa during the past quarter century. We found that the start of season and cumulative NDVI were significantly affected by large scale variations in climate. The particular climate index and the timing showing highest correlation depended heavily on the region examined. In Western Africa the cumulative NDVI correlates with PDO in September-November. In Eastern Africa the start of the June-October season strongly correlates with PDO in March-May, while the PDO in December-February correlates with the start of the February-June season. The cumulative NDVI over this last season relates to the MEI of March-May. For Southern Africa, high correlations exist between SOS and NAO of September-November, and cumulative NDVI and MEI of March-May. The research shows that climate indices can be used to anticipate late start and variable vigor in the growing season of sensitive agricultural regions in Africa.

  12. Impact of a Stochastic Parameterization Scheme on El Nino-Southern Oscillation in the Community Climate System Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christensen, H. M.; Berner, J.; Sardeshmukh, P. D.

    2017-12-01

    Stochastic parameterizations have been used for more than a decade in atmospheric models. They provide a way to represent model uncertainty through representing the variability of unresolved sub-grid processes, and have been shown to have a beneficial effect on the spread and mean state for medium- and extended-range forecasts. There is increasing evidence that stochastic parameterization of unresolved processes can improve the bias in mean and variability, e.g. by introducing a noise-induced drift (nonlinear rectification), and by changing the residence time and structure of flow regimes. We present results showing the impact of including the Stochastically Perturbed Parameterization Tendencies scheme (SPPT) in coupled runs of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Atmosphere Model, version 4 (CAM4) with historical forcing. SPPT results in a significant improvement in the representation of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation in CAM4, improving the power spectrum, as well as both the inter- and intra-annual variability of tropical pacific sea surface temperatures. We use a Linear Inverse Modelling framework to gain insight into the mechanisms by which SPPT has improved ENSO-variability.

  13. Oscillations in quasineutral plasmas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grenier, E.

    1996-01-01

    The purpose of this article is to describe the limit, as the vacuum electric permittivity goes to zero, of a plasma physics system, deduced from the Vlasov-Poisson system for special initial data (distribution functions which are analytic in the space variable, with compact support in velocity), a limit also called open-quotes quasineutral regimeclose quotes of the plasma, and the related oscillations of the electric field, with high frequency in time. 20 refs

  14. Florida Agriculture - Utilizing TRMM to Analyze Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Patterns During El Nino Southern Oscillations and Their Effects Upon Available Fresh Water for South Florida Agricultural Planning and Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Billiot, Amanda; Lee, Lucas; McKee, Jake; Cooley, Zachary Clayton; Mitchell, Brandie

    2010-01-01

    This project utilizes Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and Landsat satellite data to assess the impact of sea breeze precipitation upon areas of agricultural land use in southern Florida. Water is a critical resource to agriculture, and the availability of water for agricultural use in Florida continues to remain a key issue. Recent projections of statewide water use by 2020 estimate that 9.3 billion gallons of water per day will be demanded, and agriculture represents 47% of this demand (Bronson 2003). Farmers have fewer options for water supplies than public users and are often limited to using available supplies from surface and ground water sources which depend in part upon variable weather patterns. Sea breeze thunderstorms are responsible for much of the rainfall delivered to Florida during the wet season (May-October) and have been recognized as an important overall contributor of rainfall in southern Florida (Almeida 2003). TRMM satellite data was used to analyze how sea breeze-induced thunderstorms during El Nino and La Nina affected interannual patterns of precipitation in southern Florida from 1998-2009. TRMM's Precipitation Radar and Microwave Imager provide data to quantify water vapor in the atmosphere, precipitation rates and intensity, and the distribution of precipitation. Rainfall accumulation data derived from TRMM and other microwave sensors were used to analyze the temporal and spatial variations of rainfall during each phase of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Through the use of TRMM and Landsat, slight variations were observed, but it was determined that neither sea breeze nor total rainfall patterns in South Florida were strongly affected by ENSO during the study period. However, more research is needed to characterize the influence of ENSO on summer weather patterns in South Florida. This research will provide the basis for continued observations and study with the Global Precipitation Measurement Mission.

  15. Massive bleaching of coral reefs induced by the 2010 ENSO, Puerto Cabello, Venezuela

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlos del Mónaco

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO has generated global coral massive bleaching. The aim of this work was to evaluate the massive bleaching of coral reefs in Puerto Cabello, Venezuela derived from ENSO 2010. We evaluated the bleaching of reefs at five localities both at three and five meter depth. The coral cover and densities of colonies were estimated. We recorded living coral cover, number and diameter of bleached and nonbleached colonies of each coral species. The colonies were classified according to the proportion of bleached area. Satellite images (Modis Scar were analyzed for chlorophyll-a concentration and temperature in August, September, October and November from 2008-2010. Precipitation, wind speed and air temperature information was evaluated in meteorological data for 2009 and 2010. A total of 58.3% of colonies, belonging to 11 hexacoral species, were affected and the greatest responses were observed in Colpophyllia natans, Montastraea annularis and Montastraea faveolata. The most affected localities were closer to the mainland and had a bleached proportion up to 62.73±36.55%, with the highest proportion of affected colonies, whereas the farthest locality showed 20.25±14.00% bleached and the smallest proportion. The salinity in situ varied between 30 and 33ppm and high levels of turbidity were observed. According to the satellite images, in 2010 the surface water temperatura reached 31ºC in August, September and October, and resulted higher than those registered in 2008 and 2009. Regionally, chlorophyll values were higher in 2010 than in 2008 and 2009. The meteorological data indicated that precipitation in November 2010 was three times higher than in November 2009. Massive coral bleaching occurred due to a three month period of high temperatures followed by one month of intense ENSO-associated precipitation. However, this latter factor was likely the trigger because of the bleaching gradient observed. Rev. Biol. Trop. 60 (2

  16. Diversity in the representation of large-scale circulation associated with ENSO-Indian summer monsoon teleconnections in CMIP5 models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramu, Dandi A.; Chowdary, Jasti S.; Ramakrishna, S. S. V. S.; Kumar, O. S. R. U. B.

    2018-04-01

    Realistic simulation of large-scale circulation patterns associated with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is vital in coupled models in order to represent teleconnections to different regions of globe. The diversity in representing large-scale circulation patterns associated with ENSO-Indian summer monsoon (ISM) teleconnections in 23 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models is examined. CMIP5 models have been classified into three groups based on the correlation between Niño3.4 sea surface temperature (SST) index and ISM rainfall anomalies, models in group 1 (G1) overestimated El Niño-ISM teleconections and group 3 (G3) models underestimated it, whereas these teleconnections are better represented in group 2 (G2) models. Results show that in G1 models, El Niño-induced Tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) SST anomalies are not well represented. Anomalous low-level anticyclonic circulation anomalies over the southeastern TIO and western subtropical northwest Pacific (WSNP) cyclonic circulation are shifted too far west to 60° E and 120° E, respectively. This bias in circulation patterns implies dry wind advection from extratropics/midlatitudes to Indian subcontinent. In addition to this, large-scale upper level convergence together with lower level divergence over ISM region corresponding to El Niño are stronger in G1 models than in observations. Thus, unrealistic shift in low-level circulation centers corroborated by upper level circulation changes are responsible for overestimation of ENSO-ISM teleconnections in G1 models. Warm Pacific SST anomalies associated with El Niño are shifted too far west in many G3 models unlike in the observations. Further large-scale circulation anomalies over the Pacific and ISM region are misrepresented during El Niño years in G3 models. Too strong upper-level convergence away from Indian subcontinent and too weak WSNP cyclonic circulation are prominent in most of G3 models in which ENSO-ISM teleconnections are

  17. Low frequency variability of the Indian Ocean from TOPEX/POSEIDON sea surface height anomalies

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Somayajulu, Y.K.; Murty, V.S.N.; Sarma, Y.V.B.

    and off Sumatra present large variability on both seasonal and inter-annual time scales. The SSH anomalies off Sumatra show dominant influence of warm (cold) ENSO events with peak negative (positive) anomalies coinciding with El Nino (La Nina...

  18. Climate, ENSO and 'Black Swans' over the Last Millennium

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, L. G.; Mosley-Thompson, E.; Davis, M. E.; Kenny, D. V.; Lin, P. N.

    2014-12-01

    Tropical rainfall patterns influence the lives of billions of people both north and south of the Equator. Evidence of major ENSO events such as droughts is often recorded in the oxygen isotopic ratios and aerosol concentrations in tropical ice cores. Here we examine unusual events recorded in three ice cores, two (Quelccaya and Coropuna) in the Southern Hemisphere on the Peruvian Altiplano and the third (Dasuopu) located 22,000 km away on the southern edge of the Tibetan Plateau at the top of the Himalayas. These records suggest that the unique lower and middle tropospheric air flow over chloride (Cl-) and fluoride (F-) enriched areas upwind of the sites during ENSO events leads to enhanced deposition of these species on these glaciers. Linkages are demonstrated between ice-core chemistry and drought indicators, changes in lake levels, and ENSO and monsoon indices. Two unusual events, in the late 18th and mid-14th Centuries, are marked by abnormally high concentrations of F- and Cl- in at least two of the ice core records. All three records document a drought from 1789 to 1800 CE in which increases in these anionic concentrations reflect the abundance of continental atmospheric dust derived from arid regions upwind of the core sites. The earlier event, apparent only in the Quelccaya and Dasuopu ice cores, begins abruptly in 1343 and tapers off by 1375. The interaction between high frequency El Niños and low frequency shifts in the inter-tropical convergence zone may have resulted in these unusually severe and extended droughts. These "Black Swan" events correspond to historically documented, devastating population disruptions that were in part climate related. The 1789 to 1800 CE event was concurrent with the Doji Bara famine resulting from extended droughts that led to over 600,000 deaths in central India by 1792. Similarly extensive climate disruptions are documented in Central and South America. The mid-14th Century drought is concomitant with major monsoon

  19. The Role of Reversed Equatorial Zonal Transport in Terminating an ENSO Event

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, H. C.; Hu, Z. Z.; Huang, B.; Sui, C. H.

    2016-02-01

    In this study, we demonstrate that a sudden reversal of anomalous equatorial zonal current at the peaking ENSO phase triggers the rapid termination of an ENSO event. Throughout an ENSO cycle, the anomalous equatorial zonal current is strongly controlled by the concavity of the anomalous thermocline meridional structure near the equator. During the ENSO developing phase, the anomalous zonal current in the central and eastern Pacific generally enhances the ENSO growth through its zonal SST advection. In the mature phase of ENSO, however, the equatorial thermocline depth anomalies are reflected in the eastern Pacific and slowly propagate westward off the equator in both hemispheres. As a result, the concavity of the thermocline anomalies near the equator is reversed, i.e., the off-equatorial thermocline depth anomalies become higher than that on the equator for El Niño events and lower for La Niño events. This meridional change of thermocline structure reverses zonal transport rapidly in the central-to-eastern equatorial Pacific, which weakens the ENSO SST anomalies by reversed advection. More importantly, the reversed zonal mass transport weakens the existing zonal tilting of equatorial thermocline and suppresses the thermocline feedback. Both processes are concentrated in the eastern equatorial Pacific and can be effective on subseasonal time scales. These current reversal effects are built-in to the ENSO peak phase and independent of the zonal wind effect on thermocline slope. It functions as an oceanic control on ENSO evolution during both El Niño and La Niña events.

  20. Summer monsoon circulation and precipitation over the tropical Indian Ocean during ENSO in the NCEP climate forecast system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chowdary, J. S.; Chaudhari, H. S.; Gnanaseelan, C.; Parekh, Anant; Suryachandra Rao, A.; Sreenivas, P.; Pokhrel, S.; Singh, P.

    2014-04-01

    This study investigates the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnections to tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) and their relationship with the Indian summer monsoon in the coupled general circulation model climate forecast system (CFS). The model shows good skill in simulating the impact of El Niño over the Indian Oceanic rim during its decay phase (the summer following peak phase of El Niño). Summer surface circulation patterns during the developing phase of El Niño are more influenced by local Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies in the model unlike in observations. Eastern TIO cooling similar to that of Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is a dominant model feature in summer. This anomalous SST pattern therefore is attributed to the tendency of the model to simulate more frequent IOD events. On the other hand, in the model baroclinic response to the diabatic heating anomalies induced by the El Niño related warm SSTs is weak, resulting in reduced zonal extension of the Rossby wave response. This is mostly due to weak eastern Pacific summer time SST anomalies in the model during the developing phase of El Niño as compared to observations. Both eastern TIO cooling and weak SST warming in El Niño region combined together undermine the ENSO teleconnections to the TIO and south Asia regions. The model is able to capture the spatial patterns of SST, circulation and precipitation well during the decay phase of El Niño over the Indo-western Pacific including the typical spring asymmetric mode and summer basin-wide warming in TIO. The model simulated El Niño decay one or two seasons later, resulting long persistent warm SST and circulation anomalies mainly over the southwest TIO. In response to the late decay of El Niño, Ekman pumping shows two maxima over the southern TIO. In conjunction with this unrealistic Ekman pumping, westward propagating Rossby waves display two peaks, which play key role in the long-persistence of the TIO warming in the model (for more than a

  1. Influence of ENSO on Regional Indian Summer Monsoon Precipitation—Local Atmospheric Influences or Remote Influence from Pacific

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Indrani Roy

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Using CMIP5 model outputs in different El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO phases, this work investigates the indicator that could be used as an Index to characterise regional Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM precipitation. Dividing the Indian subcontinent into five arbitrarily chosen regions, viz. Central North East (CNE (18°N–31°N, 86°E–75°E, Hilly (H (28°N–38°N, 85°E–70°E, North West (NW (21°N–31°N, 79°E–67°E, North East (NE (21°N–31°N, 86°E–97°E and Southern India (S (18°N–7°N, 73°E–85°E, local wind field and remote influences from the tropical Pacific are considered to improve understanding of regional monsoon rainfall. Results are also compared with observations/reanalysis data to pinpoint areas of shortcomings and agreements. Model results suggest that regional wind velocity, viz. meridional wind component (V at 850 mb level (V850 and zonal component at 200 mb (U200 and 850 mb (U850 can yield better estimation of local precipitation in regions CNE, H and NW, agreeing well with earlier proposed monsoon Indices. Such observations are independent of different subcategories of ENSO phases and models show good correspondence with observations. Analyses with V at 200 mb (V200 indicate circulation of the upper branch of Hadley cells in regions CNE and S, though suggest the best agreement among models in comparison with other fields, but there are some deviations from observations, indicating a missing mechanism in the models. Using models, this study identified the best parameter in different regions that could be used for the regional monsoon Index, irrespective of various ENSO subcategories; for CNE it is the U200, for H it is U200 and U850, and for NW it is U850. The current analysis, however, fails to indicate anything clearly about the NE region. When focusing on the remote influence from the eastern Pacific region, it is found that atmospheric contribution to regional ISM precipitation fails to indicate

  2. Initialization and Predictability of a Coupled ENSO Forecast Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Dake; Zebiak, Stephen E.; Cane, Mark A.; Busalacchi, Antonio J.

    1997-01-01

    The skill of a coupled ocean-atmosphere model in predicting ENSO has recently been improved using a new initialization procedure in which initial conditions are obtained from the coupled model, nudged toward observations of wind stress. The previous procedure involved direct insertion of wind stress observations, ignoring model feedback from ocean to atmosphere. The success of the new scheme is attributed to its explicit consideration of ocean-atmosphere coupling and the associated reduction of "initialization shock" and random noise. The so-called spring predictability barrier is eliminated, suggesting that such a barrier is not intrinsic to the real climate system. Initial attempts to generalize the nudging procedure to include SST were not successful; possible explanations are offered. In all experiments forecast skill is found to be much higher for the 1980s than for the 1970s and 1990s, suggesting decadal variations in predictability.

  3. Roles of tropical SST patterns during two types of ENSO in modulating wintertime rainfall over southern China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Kang; Huang, Qing-Lan; Tam, Chi-Yung; Wang, Weiqiang; Chen, Sheng; Zhu, Congwen

    2018-03-01

    The impacts of the eastern-Pacific (EP) and central-Pacific (CP) El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the southern China wintertime rainfall (SCWR) have been investigated. Results show that wintertime rainfall over most stations in southern China is enhanced (suppressed) during the EP (CP) El Niño, which are attributed to different atmospheric responses in the western North Pacific (WNP) and South China Sea (SCS) during two types of ENSO. When EP El Niño occurs, an anomalous low-level anticyclone is present over WNP/the Philippines region, resulting in stronger-than-normal southwesterlies over SCS. Such a wind branch acts to suppress East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) and enhance moisture supply, implying surplus SCWR. During CP El Niño, however, anomalous sinking and low-level anticyclonic flow are found to cover a broad region in SCS. These circulation features are associated with moisture divergence over the northern part of SCS and suppressed SCWR. General circulation model experiments have also been conducted to study influence of various tropical sea surface temperature (SST) patterns on the EAWM atmospheric circulation. For EP El Niño, formation of anomalous low-level WNP anticyclone is jointly attributed to positive/negative SST anomalies (SSTA) over the central-to-eastern/ western equatorial Pacific. However, both positive and negative CP Niño-related-SSTA, located respectively over the central Pacific and WNP/SCS, offset each other and contribute a weak but broad-scale anticyclone centered at SCS. These results suggest that, besides the vital role of SST warming, SST cooling over SCS/WNP during two types of El Niño should be considered carefully for understanding the El Niño-EAWM relationship.

  4. Climate variability in a coupled GCM. Pt. 2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Latif, M.; Sterl, A.; Assenbaum, M.; Junge, M.M.; Maier-Reimer, E.

    1993-01-01

    The seasonal cycle and the interannual variability of the tropical Indian Ocean circulation are investigated and the Indian Summer Monsoon is simulated by a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model in a 26 year integration. Although the model exhibits significant climate drift, it simulates realistically the seasonal changes in the tropical Indian Ocean and the onset and evolution of the Indian Summer Monsoon. The amplitudes of the seasonal changes, however, are somewhat underestimated. The coupled GCM also simulates considerable interannual variability in the tropical Indian Ocean circulation which is partly related to the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon and the associated changes in the Walker Circulation. Changes in the surface wind stress appear to be crucial in forcing interannual variations in the Indian Ocean SST. As in the Pacific Ocean, the net surface heat flux acts as a negative feedback on the SST anomalies. The interannual variability in Monsoon rainfall is simulated by the coupled GCM only about half as strongly as observed. (orig.)

  5. O impacto do ENSO e do dipolo do Atlântico no nordeste do Brasil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    1998-01-01

    Full Text Available IMPACT DANS LE NORDESTE DU BRÉSIL DE L’ENSO ET DU DIPÔLE DE L’ATLANTIQUE. Nous avons tout d’abord passé rapidement en revue les phénomènes El Niño/Oscillation du Sud et dipôle de l’Atlantique en fonction de leur impact au Brésil et surtout dans la partie septentrionale du Nordeste du Brésil. Les anomalies de précipitations sont surtout provoquées par les variations de la SST dans les océans Atlantique tropical et Pacifique équatorial. On montre la réponse de l’atmosphère tropicale pour les circulations méridionales (Hadley et zonales (Walker, qui s’affaiblissent anormalement les années sèches, alors que les déplacements verticaux s’accélèrent les années humides. Hors des latitudes tropicales, des phénomènes de blocage, associés à des trains d’ondes de Rossby dans le Pacifique changent la puissance et la trajectoire des jet-stream dans les deux hémisphères, modifiant également la trajectoire et l’intensité des systèmes de fronts froids et provoquent des pluies torrentielles et des inondations dans le Sud-est et le Sud du Brésil. Se ha realizado una breve revisión de los fenómenos El Niño Oscilación del Sur y el Dipolo Atlántico con relación a sus impactos en Brasil, especialmente en la parte noreste del Noreste de Brasil (NEB. Las anomalías en las lluvias son causadas por las variaciones del Temperatura Superficial del Mar (SST en los Atlántico Tropical y Pacífico Ecuatorial. La respuesta atmosférica tropical se muestra como cambios en la circulación meridional (Hadley y zonal (Walker con un descenso anómalo en los años secos y un acelerado movimiento vertical durante los años con exceso de precipitación. En las latitudes extra-tropicales, un fenómeno de bloqueo asociado con un séquito de ondas de Rossby desde el Pacífico cambia la magnitud y trayectoria de las Corrientes en Chorro en ambos hemisferios, también cambiando la trayectoria e intensidad de los sistemas frontales fr

  6. Oscillator circuits

    CERN Document Server

    Graf, Rudolf F

    1996-01-01

    This series of circuits provides designers with a quick source for oscillator circuits. Why waste time paging through huge encyclopedias when you can choose the topic you need and select any of the specialized circuits sorted by application?This book in the series has 250-300 practical, ready-to-use circuit designs, with schematics and brief explanations of circuit operation. The original source for each circuit is listed in an appendix, making it easy to obtain additional information.Ready-to-use circuits.Grouped by application for easy look-up.Circuit source listing

  7. Nonlinear (Anharmonic Casimir Oscillator

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Habibollah Razmi

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available We want to study the dynamics of a simple linear harmonic micro spring which is under the influence of the quantum Casimir force/pressure and thus behaves as a (an nonlinear (anharmonic Casimir oscillator. Generally, the equation of motion of this nonlinear micromechanical Casimir oscillator has no exact solvable (analytical solution and the turning point(s of the system has (have no fixed position(s; however, for particular values of the stiffness of the micro spring and at appropriately well-chosen distance scales and conditions, there is (are approximately sinusoidal solution(s for the problem (the variable turning points are collected in a very small interval of positions. This, as a simple and elementary plan, may be useful in controlling the Casimir stiction problem in micromechanical devices.

  8. Coherence among the Northern Hemisphere land, cryosphere, and ocean responses to natural variability and anthropogenic forcing during the satellite era

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gonsamo, Alemu; Chen, Jing M.; Shindell, Drew T.; Asner, Gregory P.

    2016-08-01

    A lack of long-term measurements across Earth's biological and physical systems has made observation-based detection and attribution of climate change impacts to anthropogenic forcing and natural variability difficult. Here we explore coherence among land, cryosphere and ocean responses to recent climate change using 3 decades (1980-2012) of observational satellite and field data throughout the Northern Hemisphere. Our results show coherent interannual variability among snow cover, spring phenology, solar radiation, Scandinavian Pattern, and North Atlantic Oscillation. The interannual variability of the atmospheric peak-to-trough CO2 amplitude is mostly impacted by temperature-mediated effects of El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific/North American Pattern (PNA), whereas CO2 concentration is affected by Polar Pattern control on sea ice extent dynamics. This is assuming the trend in anthropogenic CO2 emission remains constant, or the interannual changes in the trends are negligible. Our analysis suggests that sea ice decline-related CO2 release may outweigh increased CO2 uptake through longer growing seasons and higher temperatures. The direct effects of variation in solar radiation and leading teleconnections, at least in part via their impacts on temperature, dominate the interannual variability of land, cryosphere and ocean indicators. Our results reveal a coherent long-term changes in multiple physical and biological systems that are consistent with anthropogenic forcing of Earth's climate and inconsistent with natural drivers.

  9. Interannual variation in methane emissions from tropical wetlands triggered by repeated El Niño Southern Oscillation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Qiuan; Peng, Changhui; Ciais, Philippe; Jiang, Hong; Liu, Jinxun; Bousquet, Philippe; Li, Shiqin; Chang, Jie; Fang, Xiuqin; Zhou, Xiaolu; Chen, Huai; Liu, Shirong; Lin, Guanghui; Gong, Peng; Wang, Meng; Wang, Han; Xiang, Wenhua; Chen, Jing

    2017-01-01

    Methane (CH4) emissions from tropical wetlands contribute 60%–80% of global natural wetland CH4 emissions. Decreased wetland CH4 emissions can act as a negative feedback mechanism for future climate warming and vice versa. The impact of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on CH4 emissions from wetlands remains poorly quantified at both regional and global scales, and El Niño events are expected to become more severe based on climate models’ projections. We use a process-based model of global wetland CH4 emissions to investigate the impacts of the ENSO on CH4 emissions in tropical wetlands for the period from 1950 to 2012. The results show that CH4 emissions from tropical wetlands respond strongly to repeated ENSO events, with negative anomalies occurring during El Niño periods and with positive anomalies occurring during La Niña periods. An approximately 8-month time lag was detected between tropical wetland CH4 emissions and ENSO events, which was caused by the combined time lag effects of ENSO events on precipitation and temperature over tropical wetlands. The ENSO can explain 49% of interannual variations for tropical wetland CH4 emissions. Furthermore, relative to neutral years, changes in temperature have much stronger effects on tropical wetland CH4 emissions than the changes in precipitation during ENSO periods. The occurrence of several El Niño events contributed to a lower decadal mean growth rate in atmospheric CH4 concentrations throughout the 1980s and 1990s and to stable atmospheric CH4 concentrations from 1999 to 2006, resulting in negative feedback to global warming.

  10. Impacts of El Niño-Southern Oscillation on the wheat market: A global dynamic analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gutierrez, Luciano

    2017-01-01

    Although the widespread influence of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) occurrences on crop yields of the main agricultural commodities is well known, the global socio-economic consequences of ENSO still remain uncertain. Given the global importance of wheat for global consumption by providing 20% of global calories and nourishment, the monitoring and prediction of ENSO-induced variations in the worldwide wheat market are essential for allowing national governments to manage the associated risks and to ensure the supplies of wheat for consumers, including the underprivileged. To this end, we propose a global dynamic model for the analysis of ENSO impacts on wheat yield anomalies, export prices, exports and stock-to-use ratios. Our framework focuses on seven countries/regions: the six main wheat-exporting countries-the United States, Argentina, Australia, Canada, the EU, and the group of the main Black Sea export countries, i.e. Russia, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan-plus the rest of the world. The study shows that La Niña exerts, on average, a stronger and negative impact on wheat yield anomalies, exports and stock-to-use ratios than El Niño. In contrast, wheat export prices are positively related to La Niña occurrences evidencing, once again, its steady impact in both the short and long run. Our findings emphasize the importance of the two ENSO extreme phases for the worldwide wheat market.

  11. Oscillating nonlinear acoustic shock waves

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gaididei, Yuri; Rasmussen, Anders Rønne; Christiansen, Peter Leth

    2016-01-01

    We investigate oscillating shock waves in a tube using a higher order weakly nonlinear acoustic model. The model includes thermoviscous effects and is non isentropic. The oscillating shock waves are generated at one end of the tube by a sinusoidal driver. Numerical simulations show that at resona......We investigate oscillating shock waves in a tube using a higher order weakly nonlinear acoustic model. The model includes thermoviscous effects and is non isentropic. The oscillating shock waves are generated at one end of the tube by a sinusoidal driver. Numerical simulations show...... polynomial in the space and time variables, we find analytical approximations to the observed single shock waves in an infinitely long tube. Using perturbation theory for the driven acoustic system approximative analytical solutions for the off resonant case are determined....

  12. The Asian-Australian Monsoon and El Niño-Southern Oscillation in the NCAR Climate System Model*.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meehl, Gerald A.; Arblaster, Julie M.

    1998-06-01

    Features associated with the Asian-Australian monsoon system and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are described in the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) global coupled Climate System Model (CSM). Simulation characteristics are compared with a version of the atmospheric component of the CSM, the NCAR CCM3, run with time-evolving SSTs from 1950 to 1994, and with observations. The CSM is shown to represent most major features of the monsoon system in terms of mean climatology, interannual variability, and connections to the tropical Pacific. This includes a representation of the Southern Oscillation links between strong Asian-Australian monsoons and associated negative SST anomalies in the eastern equatorial Pacific. The equatorial SST gradient across the Pacific in the CSM is shown to be similar to the observed with somewhat cooler mean SSTs across the entire Pacific by about 1°-2°C. The seasonal cycle of SSTs in the eastern equatorial Pacific has the characteristic signature seen in the observations of relatively warmer SSTs propagating westward in the first half of the year followed by the reestablishment of the cold tongue with relatively colder SSTs propagating westward in the second half of the year. Like other global coupled models, the propagation is similar to the observed but with the establishment of the relatively warmer water in the first half of the year occurring about 1-2 months later than observed. The seasonal cycle of precipitation in the tropical eastern Pacific is also similar to other global coupled models in that there is a tendency for a stronger-than-observed double ITCZ year round, particularly in northern spring, but with a well-reproduced annual maximum of ITCZ strength north of the equator in the second half of the year. Time series of area-averaged SSTs for the NINO3 region in the eastern equatorial Pacific show that the CSM is producing about 60% of the amplitude of the observed variability in that region, consistent

  13. One dimension harmonic oscillator

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cohen-Tannoudji, Claude; Diu, Bernard; Laloe, Franck.

    1977-01-01

    The importance of harmonic oscillator in classical and quantum physics, eigenvalues and eigenstates of hamiltonian operator are discussed. In complement are presented: study of some physical examples of harmonic oscillators; study of stationnary states in the /x> representation; Hermite polynomials; resolution of eigenvalue equation of harmonic oscillator by polynomial method; isotope harmonic oscillator with three dimensions; charged harmonic oscillator in uniform electric field; quasi classical coherent states of harmonic oscillator; eigenmodes of vibration of two coupled harmonic oscillators; vibration modus of a continuous physical system (application to radiation: photons); vibration modus of indefinite linear chain of coupled harmonic oscillators (phonons); one-dimensional harmonic oscillator in thermodynamic equilibrium at temperature T [fr

  14. Precipitation variability inferred from the annual growth and isotopic composition of tropical trees

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ballantyne, A. P.; Baker, P. A.; Chambers, J. Q.; Villalba, R.

    2005-12-01

    Here we demonstrate that annual growth and isotopic ratios in tropical trees are responsive to seasonal and annual precipitation variability. We identify several regions of tropical South America characterized by significant relationships between oxygen isotopic ratios (δ 18O) in precipitation and precipitation amount (r = -0.82). Many of these regions are also sensitive to inter-annual variability in the South American Monsoon modulated by the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The effectiveness of δ 18O and annual growth of tropical trees as a precipitation proxy is validated by high-resolution sampling of a Tachigali vermelho tree growing near Manaus, Brazil (3.1° S, 60.0° S). Growth in Tachigali spp. was highly correlated with both precipitation and cellulose δ 18O (r = 0.60) and precipitation amount was significantly correlated with δ 18O at a lag of approximately one month (r = 0.56). We also report a multi-proxy record spanning 180 years from Cedrela odorata growing in the Peruvian Amazon near Puerto Maldonado (12.6° S, 69.2° W) revealing a significant relationship between cellulose and monsoon precipitation over the region (r = -0.33). A 150-year record obtained from Polylepis tarapacana growing at Volcan Granada in Northern Argentina (22.0° S, 66.0° W) is also reported with a significant relationship between local monsoon precipitation and a regionally derived ring width index (r = 0.38). Although no significant relationship was revealed between cellulose δ 18O and precipitation in this taxa at this location, separate radii within the same tree revealed a significantly coherent δ 18O signal (r = 0.38). We compared our proxy chronologies with monsoon precipitation reanalysis data for tropical South America, which revealed key features of the South American Monsoon and their sensitivity to ENSO variability.

  15. Variability in precipitation in a watershed in the altiplano, Peru and modes of variation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mazzarino, M.; Brown, C. M.

    2012-12-01

    This research examines system linkages between climate, water availability, pasture availability, camelids (llamas and alpacas) and indigenous herders in an Andean watershed in southern Peru. In this region, extreme meteorological events such as drought and flood, occur often and have the potential to negatively impact herding livelihoods. Predictability in the system is paramount to reducing risks associated with these events. In the altiplano, a large portion of variability in precipitation has been attributed to the influence of El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). In light of climate change and observations by herders, this research returns to the question of teleconnections in the altiplano. We use December through March precipitation totals obtained from eight meteorological stations for 43 years (1964-2006) and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the equatorial Pacific and Atlantic to characterize the hydroclimatology in the watershed and determine modes of variability. Following principal components analysis, prevailing periodicities in regional precipitation were determined using wavelet analysis and spatial correlation and regression analysis were used to determine the relationship between SST anomalies (SSTA's) and precipitation events in the watershed. Results suggest a non-linear and non-stationary mode of variability. We draw three conclusions from the results: 1) Positive precipitation extremes are dominated by an ENSO signal in the Nino 2 region; 2) Post 1987 there is a weak relationship, if any, between anomalously dry years in the precipitation record and SSTA's in the equatorial Pacific; 3) There is a stronger relationship (inverse) between precipitation in the region and SSTA's in the tropical Atlantic than previously believed.

  16. Power oscillation damping controller

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    2012-01-01

    A power oscillation damping controller is provided for a power generation device such as a wind turbine device. The power oscillation damping controller receives an oscillation indicating signal indicative of a power oscillation in an electricity network and provides an oscillation damping control...

  17. Oscillations of void lattices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Akhiezer, A.I.; Davydov, L.N.; Spol'nik, Z.A.

    1976-01-01

    Oscillations of a nonideal crystal are studied, in which macroscopic defects (pores) form a hyperlattice. It is shown that alongside with acoustic and optical phonons (relative to the hyperlattice), in such a crystal oscillations of the third type are possible which are a hydridization of sound oscillations of atoms and surface oscillations of a pore. Oscillation spectra of all three types were obtained

  18. Attribution of the variability of typhoon landfalls in China coasts to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and sea surface temperature in the tropical Indian Ocean-western Pacific

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, L.; Chen, S.; Wang, C.; Wang, D.; Wang, X.

    2017-12-01

    The typhoon (TY) landfall activity along China coasts during July-August-September (JAS) shows significant interdecadal variations during 1965-2010. Three typical episodes for TY landfall activities in JAS along the China coasts during 1965-2010 can be identified, with more TY landfall during 1965-1978 (period I) and 1998-2010 (period III), and less during 1982-1995 (period II). We found that the interdcadal variations might be related to the combined effects of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) phase change and the sea surface temperature (SST) variation in the tropical Indian Ocean and western Pacific (IO-WP). During negative PDO phase of periods I and III, a cyclonic anomaly is located in the western North Pacific (WNP) inducing easterly flow at its north, favoring TY landfall along eastern China coast. Due to Gill-pattern responses, warm SST anomalies over tropical IO-WP induce an anomalous anticyclonic circulation in the WNP, with southeasterly wind dominating in the northern SCS and WNP (10o-20o N), which favors TY reaching along southern China coast. With both landfalling-favorable conditions satisfied, there are significantly more TY landfall during period III than that of period I, which shows SST cooling in tropical IO-WP.

  19. Isotopic changes due to convective moistening of the lower troposphere associated with variations in the ENSO and IOD from 2005 to 2006

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeonghoon Lee

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available We use the tropospheric emission spectrometer measurements of the isotopic composition of water vapour (δD in the lower troposphere to examine how changes in the distribution of convection and precipitation control water vapour amount and its isotope over the Indian Ocean. Measurements of the outgoing longwave radiation and vertical velocity from NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis and cloud ice water content from the Microwave Limb Sounder show distinct variations in convection due to a phase shift of both El Niño – Southern Oscillation (ENSO and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD. These variations in convection are associated with changes in precipitation and water amount over the Western Indian Ocean (WIO and Eastern Indian Ocean (EIO, depending on the phases of ENSO and/or the IOD. Over the EIO in 2006, induced by the interplay of both positive ENSO and IOD, it is drier and less isotopically depleted due to less frequent and/or weaker deep convective activity and subsequent precipitation compared to 2005. By contrast, over the WIO in 2006, an increase in water vapour and precipitation but little isotopic fractionation in water vapour of clear sky compared to 2005 is likely associated with an increase in both enhanced deep and shallow convection, caused by the positive IOD. Therefore, paleoarchives of water isotopes near Africa will be more difficult to relate to a single process because changes in convective activity result in changes in precipitation but do not have a significant impact on the isotopic composition of the source vapour based on this case analysis.

  20. The IOD-ENSO precursory teleconnection over the tropical Indo-Pacific Ocean: dynamics and long-term trends under global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuan, Dongliang; Hu, Xiaoyue; Xu, Peng; Zhao, Xia; Masumoto, Yukio; Han, Weiqing

    2018-01-01

    The dynamics of the teleconnection between the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) in the tropical Indian Ocean and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the tropical Pacific Ocean at the time lag of one year are investigated using lag correlations between the oceanic anomalies in the southeastern tropical Indian Ocean in fall and those in the tropical Indo-Pacific Ocean in the following winter-fall seasons in the observations and in high-resolution global ocean model simulations. The lag correlations suggest that the IOD-forced interannual transport anomalies of the Indonesian Throughflow generate thermocline anomalies in the western equatorial Pacific Ocean, which propagate to the east to induce ocean-atmosphere coupled evolution leading to ENSO. In comparison, lag correlations between the surface zonal wind anomalies over the western equatorial Pacific in fall and the Indo-Pacific oceanic anomalies at time lags longer than a season are all insignificant, suggesting the short memory of the atmospheric bridge. A linear continuously stratified model is used to investigate the dynamics of the oceanic connection between the tropical Indian and Pacific Oceans. The experiments suggest that interannual equatorial Kelvin waves from the Indian Ocean propagate into the equatorial Pacific Ocean through the Makassar Strait and the eastern Indonesian seas with a penetration rate of about 10%-15% depending on the baroclinic modes. The IOD-ENSO teleconnection is found to get stronger in the past century or so. Diagnoses of the CMIP5 model simulations suggest that the increased teleconnection is associated with decreased Indonesian Throughflow transports in the recent century, which is found sensitive to the global warming forcing.

  1. Historic Hydroclimatic Variability in Northern Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    José Villanueva-Diaz; J. Cerano-Paredes; D.W. Stahle; B. H. Luckman; M.D. Therrell; M.K. Cleaveland; G. Gutierrez-Garcia

    2006-01-01

    The understanding of historic hydroclimatic variability is basic to plan for a proper management of limited water resources in northern Mexico. The objective of this study was to develop a network of tree-ring chronologies for climate reconstruction and to analyze the influence of circulatory patterns, such as ENSO. Climatic sensitive treering chronologies were...

  2. Extremes in East African hydroclimate and links to Indo-Pacific variability on interannual to decadal timescales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ummenhofer, Caroline C.; Kulüke, Marco; Tierney, Jessica E.

    2018-04-01

    East African hydroclimate exhibits considerable variability across a range of timescales, with implications for its population that depends on the region's two rainy seasons. Recent work demonstrated that current state-of-the-art climate models consistently underestimate the long rains in boreal spring over the Horn of Africa while overestimating the short rains in autumn. This inability to represent the seasonal cycle makes it problematic for climate models to project changes in East African precipitation. Here we consider whether this bias also has implications for understanding interannual and decadal variability in the East African long and short rains. Using a consistent framework with an unforced multi-century global coupled climate model simulation, the role of Indo-Pacific variability for East African rainfall is compared across timescales and related to observations. The dominant driver of East African rainfall anomalies critically depends on the timescale under consideration: Interannual variations in East African hydroclimate coincide with significant sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies across the Indo-Pacific, including those associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the eastern Pacific, and are linked to changes in the Walker circulation, regional winds and vertical velocities over East Africa. Prolonged drought/pluvial periods in contrast exhibit anomalous SST predominantly in the Indian Ocean and Indo-Pacific warm pool (IPWP) region, while eastern Pacific anomalies are insignificant. We assessed dominant frequencies in Indo-Pacific SST and found the eastern equatorial Pacific dominated by higher-frequency variability in the ENSO band, while the tropical Indian Ocean and IPWP exhibit lower-frequency variability beyond 10 years. This is consistent with the different contribution to regional precipitation anomalies for the eastern Pacific versus Indian Ocean and IPWP on interannual and decadal timescales, respectively. In the model

  3. Variability of Oceanic Mesoscale Convective System Vertical Structures Observed by CloudSat in Indo-Pacific Regions Associated with the Madden-Julian Oscillation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuan, J.

    2016-12-01

    Vertical structures of mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) during the Madden-Julian-Oscillation (MJO) are investigated using 2006-2011 CloudSat radar measurements for Indo-Pacific oceanic areas. In active phases of the MJO relatively more large MCSs and connected MCSs occur. The frequency of occurrence of connected MCSs peaks in the onset phase, a phase earlier than separated MCSs. Compared to separated MCSs, connected MCSs in all sizes have weaker reflectivity above 8 km in their deep precipitating portions and thick anvil clouds closely linked to them, suggesting more "stratiform" physics associated with them. Separated MCSs and connected MCSs together produce relatively the least anvil clouds in the onset phase while their deep precipitating portions show stronger/weaker reflectivity above 8 km before/after the onset phase. Thus after the onset phase of the MJO, MCSs shift toward more "convective" organization because separated MCSs maximize after the onset, while their internal structures appear more "stratiform" because internally they have weaker reflectivity above 8km. Connected MCSs coincide with a more humid middle troposphere spatially, even at the same places a few days before they occur. Middle-tropospheric moistening peaks in the onset phase. Moistening of the free troposphere around deep convective systems shows relatively stronger moistening/drying below the 700 hPa before/after the onset phase compared to domain-mean averages. Lower-topped clouds occur most frequently around CMCSs and in active phases, consistent with the presence of a moister free troposphere. Coexistence of these phenomena suggests that the role of middle troposphere moisture in the formation of CMCSs needs to be better understood.

  4. Variability of oceanic deep convective system vertical structures observed by CloudSat in Indo-Pacific regions associated with the Madden-Julian oscillation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuan, Jian

    2016-09-01

    Vertical structures of deep convective systems during the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) are investigated using CloudSat radar measurements in Indo-Pacific oceanic areas. In active phases of the MJO, relatively more large systems and connected mesoscale convective systems (CMCSs) occur. The occurrence frequency of CMCSs peaks in the onset phase, a phase earlier than separated mesoscale convective systems (SMCSs). Compared with SMCSs, CMCSs of all sizes have weaker reflectivity above 8 km in their deep precipitating portions and thick anvil clouds closely linked to them, suggesting more "stratiform" physics associated with them. SMCSs and CMCSs together produce relatively the least anvil clouds in the onset phase, while their deep precipitating portions show stronger/weaker reflectivity above 8 km before/after the onset phase. Thus, after the onset phase of the MJO, mesoscale convective systems shift toward a more "convective" organization because SMCSs maximize after the onset, while their internal structures appear more stratiform because internally they have weaker reflectivity above 8 km. CMCSs coincide with a more humid middle troposphere spatially, even at the same locations a few days before they occur. Middle-tropospheric moistening peaks in the onset phase. Moistening of the free troposphere around deep convective systems shows relatively stronger moistening/drying below 700 hPa before/after the onset phase than domain-mean averages. Low-topped clouds occur most frequently around CMCSs and in active phases, consistent with the presence of a moister free troposphere. Coexistence of these phenomena suggests that the role of middle troposphere moisture in the formation of CMCSs should be better understood.

  5. Terrestrial water storage changes over the Pearl River Basin from GRACE and connections with Pacific climate variability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhicai Luo

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Time-variable gravity data from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE satellite mission are used to study terrestrial water storage (TWS changes over the Pearl River Basin (PRB for the period 2003–Nov. 2014. TWS estimates from GRACE generally show good agreement with those from two hydrological models GLDAS and WGHM. But they show different capability of detecting significant TWS changes over the PRB. Among them, WGHM is likely to underestimate the seasonal variability of TWS, while GRACE detects long-term water depletions over the upper PRB as was done by hydrological models, and observes significant water increases around the Longtan Reservoir (LTR due to water impoundment. The heavy drought in 2011 caused by the persistent precipitation deficit has resulted in extreme low surface runoff and water level of the LTR. Moreover, large variability of summer and autumn precipitation may easily trigger floods and droughts in the rainy season in the PRB, especially for summer, as a high correlation of 0.89 was found between precipitation and surface runoff. Generally, the PRB TWS was negatively correlated with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO events. However, the modulation of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO may impact this relationship, and the significant TWS anomaly was likely to occur in the peak of PDO phase as they agree well in both of the magnitude and timing of peaks. This indicates that GRACE-based TWS could be a valuable parameter for studying climatic influences in the PRB.

  6. Oscillators - a simple introduction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lindberg, Erik

    2013-01-01

    Oscillators are kernel components of electrical and electronic circuits. Discussion of history, mechanisms and design based on Barkhausens observation. Discussion of a Wien Bridge oscillator based on the question: Why does this circuit oscillate ?......Oscillators are kernel components of electrical and electronic circuits. Discussion of history, mechanisms and design based on Barkhausens observation. Discussion of a Wien Bridge oscillator based on the question: Why does this circuit oscillate ?...

  7. Oscillators and Eigenvalues

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lindberg, Erik

    1997-01-01

    In order to obtain insight in the nature of nonlinear oscillators the eigenvalues of the linearized Jacobian of the differential equations describing the oscillator are found and displayed as functions of time. A number of oscillators are studied including Dewey's oscillator (piecewise linear wit...... with negative resistance), Kennedy's Colpitts-oscillator (with and without chaos) and a new 4'th order oscillator with hyper-chaos....

  8. Phenological patterns of Spodoptera Guenée, 1852 (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) is more affected by ENSO than seasonal factors and host plant availability in a Brazilian Savanna

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piovesan, Mônica; Specht, Alexandre; Carneiro, Eduardo; Paula-Moraes, Silvana Vieira; Casagrande, Mirna Martins

    2018-03-01

    The identification of factors responsible for the population dynamics is fundamental for pest management, since losses can reach 18% of annual production. Besides regular seasonal environmental factors and crop managements, additional supra-annual meteorological phenomena can also affect population dynamics, although its relevance has been rarely investigated. Among crop pests, Spodoptera stands out due to its worldwide distribution, high degree of polyphagy, thus causing damages in several crops in the world. Aiming to distinguish the relevance of different factors shaping population dynamics of Spodoptera in an ecosystem constituted of dry and rainy seasons, the current study used circular statistics to identify phenological patterns and test if its population fluctuation is driven by El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) effect, seasonal meteorological parameters, and/or host plant availability. Samplings were done in an intercropping system, in the Brazilian Savanna, during the new moon cycles between July/2013 and June/2016. Species were recorded all year round, but demonstrated differently non-uniform distribution, being concentrated in different seasons of the year. Population fluctuations were mostly affected by the ENSO intensity, despite the contrasting seasonal meteorological variation or host plant availability in a 400-m radius. Studies involving the observation of supra-annual phenomena, although rare, reach similar conclusions in relation to Neotropical insect fauna. Therefore, it is paramount to have long-term sampling studies to obtain a more precise response of the pest populations towards the agroecosystem conditions.

  9. Verification of an ENSO-Based Long-Range Prediction of Anomalous Weather Conditions During the Vancouver 2010 Olympics and Paralympics