WorldWideScience

Sample records for orbitally forced climate

  1. Orbital Forcing driving climate variability on Tropical South Atlantic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oliveira, A. S.; Baker, P. A.; Silva, C. G.; Dwyer, G. S.; Chiessi, C. M.; Rigsby, C. A.; Ferreira, F.

    2017-12-01

    Past research on climate response to orbital forcing in tropical South America has emphasized on high precession cycles influencing low latitude hydrologic cycles, and driving the meridional migration of Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ).However, marine proxy records from the tropical Pacific Ocean showed a strong 41-ka periodicities in Pleistocene seawater temperature and productivity related to fluctuations in Earth's obliquity. It Indicates that the western Pacific ITCZ migration was influenced by combined precession and obliquity changes. To reconstruct different climate regimes over the continent and understand the orbital cycle forcing over Tropical South America climate, hydrological reconstruction have been undertaken on sediment cores located on the Brazilian continental slope, representing the past 1.6 million years. Core CDH 79 site is located on a 2345 m deep seamount on the northern Brazilian continental slope (00° 39.6853' N, 44° 20.7723' W), 320 km from modern coastline of the Maranhão Gulf. High-resolution XRF analyses of Fe, Ti, K and Ca are used to define the changes in precipitation and sedimentary input history of Tropical South America. The response of the hydrology cycle to orbital forcing was studied using spectral analysis.The 1600 ka records of dry/wet conditions presented here indicates that orbital time-scale climate change has been a dominant feature of tropical climate. We conclude that the observed oscillation reflects variability in the ITCZ activity associated with the Earth's tilt. The prevalence of the eccentricity and obliquity signals in continental hydrology proxies (Ti/Ca and Fe/K) as implicated in our precipitation records, highlights that these orbital forcings play an important role in tropics hydrologic cycles. Throughout the Quaternary abrupt shifts of tropical variability are temporally correlated with abrupt climate changes and atmospheric reorganization during Mid-Pleistocene Transition and Mid-Brunhes Events

  2. Reconciliation of the Devils Hole climate record with orbital forcing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moseley, Gina E; Edwards, R Lawrence; Wendt, Kathleen A; Cheng, Hai; Dublyansky, Yuri; Lu, Yanbin; Boch, Ronny; Spötl, Christoph

    2016-01-08

    The driving force behind Quaternary glacial-interglacial cycles and much associated climate change is widely considered to be orbital forcing. However, previous versions of the iconic Devils Hole (Nevada) subaqueous calcite record exhibit shifts to interglacial values ~10,000 years before orbitally forced ice age terminations, and interglacial durations ~10,000 years longer than other estimates. Our measurements from Devils Hole 2 replicate virtually all aspects of the past 204,000 years of earlier records, except for the timing during terminations, and they lower the age of the record near Termination II by ~8000 years, removing both ~10,000-year anomalies. The shift to interglacial values now broadly coincides with the rise in boreal summer insolation, the marine termination, and the rise in atmospheric CO2, which is consistent with mechanisms ultimately tied to orbital forcing. Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

  3. Orbital forcing of Arctic climate: mechanisms of climate response and implications for continental glaciation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jackson, C S [Program in Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Princeton University, NJ 08542, Princeton (United States); Institute for Geophysics, The John A. and Katherine G. Jackson School of Geosciences, The University of Texas at Austin, 4412 Spicewood Springs Rd., Bldg 600, TX 78759, Austin (United States); Broccoli, A J [NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, NJ 08542, Princeton (United States); Department of Environmental Sciences, Rutgers University, NJ 08903, New Brunswick (United States)

    2003-12-01

    Progress in understanding how terrestrial ice volume is linked to Earth's orbital configuration has been impeded by the cost of simulating climate system processes relevant to glaciation over orbital time scales (10{sup 3}-10{sup 5} years). A compromise is usually made to represent the climate system by models that are averaged over one or more spatial dimensions or by three-dimensional models that are limited to simulating particular ''snapshots'' in time. We take advantage of the short equilibration time ({proportional_to}10 years) of a climate model consisting of a three-dimensional atmosphere coupled to a simple slab ocean to derive the equilibrium climate response to accelerated variations in Earth's orbital configuration over the past 165,000 years. Prominent decreases in ice melt and increases in snowfall are simulated during three time intervals near 26, 73, and 117 thousand years ago (ka) when aphelion was in late spring and obliquity was low. There were also significant decreases in ice melt and increases in snowfall near 97 and 142 ka when eccentricity was relatively large, aphelion was in late spring, and obliquity was high or near its long term mean. These ''glaciation-friendly'' time intervals correspond to prominent and secondary phases of terrestrial ice growth seen within the marine {delta}{sup 18}O record. Both dynamical and thermal effects contribute to the increases in snowfall during these periods, through increases in storm activity and the fraction of precipitation falling as snow. The majority of the mid- to high latitude response to orbital forcing is organized by the properties of sea ice, through its influence on radiative feedbacks that nearly double the size of the orbital forcing as well as its influence on the seasonal evolution of the latitudinal temperature gradient. (orig.)

  4. Orbital forcing of climate 1.4 billion years ago

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhang, Shuichang; Wang, Xiaomei; Hammarlund, Emma U

    2015-01-01

    Fluctuating climate is a hallmark of Earth. As one transcends deep into Earth time, however, both the evidence for and the causes of climate change become difficult to establish. We report geochemical and sedimentological evidence for repeated, short-term climate fluctuations from the exceptionally...... well-preserved ∼1.4-billion-year-old Xiamaling Formation of the North China Craton. We observe two patterns of climate fluctuations: On long time scales, over what amounts to tens of millions of years, sediments of the Xiamaling Formation record changes in geochemistry consistent with long-term changes...... reflect what appear to be orbitally forced changes in wind patterns and ocean circulation as they influenced rates of organic carbon flux, trace metal accumulation, and the source of detrital particles to the sediment....

  5. A model perspective on orbital forcing of monsoons and Mediterranean climate using EC-Earth

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bosmans, J.H.C.

    2014-01-01

    This thesis focuses on orbitally forced changes of monsoons and Mediterranean climate. Changes in the shape of the Earths orbit around the Sun and its rotational axis govern the seasonal and latitudinal distribution of incoming solar radiation on time scales of thousands to millions of years. The

  6. Orbital forcing and role of the latitudinal insolation/temperature gradient

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Davis, Basil A.S. [University of Newcastle, School of Geography, Politics and Sociology, Newcastle upon Tyne (United Kingdom); ARVE Group, ISTE, EPFL, Lausanne (Switzerland); Brewer, Simon [CEREGE, Europole de l' Arbois, Aix-en-Provence (France)

    2009-02-15

    Orbital forcing of the climate system is clearly shown in the Earths record of glacial-interglacial cycles, but the mechanism underlying this forcing is poorly understood. Traditional Milankovitch theory suggests that these cycles are driven by changes in high latitude summer insolation, yet this forcing is dominated by precession, and cannot account for the importance of obliquity in the Ice Age record. Here, we investigate an alternative forcing based on the latitudinal insolation gradient (LIG), which is dominated by both obliquity (in summer) and precession (in winter). The insolation gradient acts on the climate system through differential solar heating, which creates the Earths latitudinal temperature gradient (LTG) that drives the atmospheric and ocean circulation. A new pollen-based reconstruction of the LTG during the Holocene is used to demonstrate that the LTG may be much more sensitive to changes in the LIG than previously thought. From this, it is shown how LIG forcing of the LTG may help explain the propagation of orbital signatures throughout the climate system, including the Monsoon, Arctic Oscillation and ocean circulation. These relationships are validated over the last (Eemian) Interglacial, which occurred under a different orbital configuration to the Holocene. We conclude that LIG forcing of the LTG explains many criticisms of classic Milankovitch theory, while being poorly represented in climate models. (orig.)

  7. Response of carbon fluxes and climate to orbital forcing changes in the Community Climate System Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jochum, M.; Peacock, S.; Moore, J. K.; Lindsay, K. T.

    2009-12-01

    A global general circulation model coupled to an ocean ecosystem model is used to quantify the response of carbon fluxes and climate to changes in orbital forcing. Compared to the present-day simulation, the simulation with the Earth's orbital parameters from 115,000 years ago features significantly cooler northern high latitudes, but only moderately cooler southern high latitudes. This asymmetry is explained by a 30% reduction of the strength of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation that is caused by an increased Arctic sea-ice export and a resulting freshening of the North Atlantic. The strong northern high-latitude cooling and the direct insolation induced tropical warming lead to global shifts in precipitation and winds to the order of 10-20%. These climate shifts lead to regional differences in air-sea carbon fluxes of the same order. However, the differences in global net carbon fluxes are insignificant. This surprising result is due to several effects, two of which stand out: Firstly, colder sea surface temperature leads to a more effective solubility pump but also to increased sea-ice concentration which blocks air-sea exchange; and secondly, the weakening of Southern Ocean winds, which is predicted by some idealized studies, is small compared to its interannual variability.

  8. Response of air-sea carbon fluxes and climate to orbital forcing changes in the Community Climate System Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jochum, M.; Peacock, S.; Moore, K.; Lindsay, K.

    2010-07-01

    A global general circulation model coupled to an ocean ecosystem model is used to quantify the response of carbon fluxes and climate to changes in orbital forcing. Compared to the present-day simulation, the simulation with the Earth's orbital parameters from 115,000 years ago features significantly cooler northern high latitudes but only moderately cooler southern high latitudes. This asymmetry is explained by a 30% reduction of the strength of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation that is caused by an increased Arctic sea ice export and a resulting freshening of the North Atlantic. The strong northern high-latitude cooling and the direct insolation induced tropical warming lead to global shifts in precipitation and winds to the order of 10%-20%. These climate shifts lead to regional differences in air-sea carbon fluxes of the same order. However, the differences in global net air-sea carbon fluxes are small, which is due to several effects, two of which stand out: first, colder sea surface temperature leads to a more effective solubility pump but also to increased sea ice concentration which blocks air-sea exchange, and second, the weakening of Southern Ocean winds that is predicted by some idealized studies occurs only in part of the basin, and is compensated by stronger winds in other parts.

  9. Sensitivity of the Eocene climate to CO2 and orbital variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keery, John S.; Holden, Philip B.; Edwards, Neil R.

    2018-02-01

    The early Eocene, from about 56 Ma, with high atmospheric CO2 levels, offers an analogue for the response of the Earth's climate system to anthropogenic fossil fuel burning. In this study, we present an ensemble of 50 Earth system model runs with an early Eocene palaeogeography and variation in the forcing values of atmospheric CO2 and the Earth's orbital parameters. Relationships between simple summary metrics of model outputs and the forcing parameters are identified by linear modelling, providing estimates of the relative magnitudes of the effects of atmospheric CO2 and each of the orbital parameters on important climatic features, including tropical-polar temperature difference, ocean-land temperature contrast, Asian, African and South (S.) American monsoon rains, and climate sensitivity. Our results indicate that although CO2 exerts a dominant control on most of the climatic features examined in this study, the orbital parameters also strongly influence important components of the ocean-atmosphere system in a greenhouse Earth. In our ensemble, atmospheric CO2 spans the range 280-3000 ppm, and this variation accounts for over 90 % of the effects on mean air temperature, southern winter high-latitude ocean-land temperature contrast and northern winter tropical-polar temperature difference. However, the variation of precession accounts for over 80 % of the influence of the forcing parameters on the Asian and African monsoon rainfall, and obliquity variation accounts for over 65 % of the effects on winter ocean-land temperature contrast in high northern latitudes and northern summer tropical-polar temperature difference. Our results indicate a bimodal climate sensitivity, with values of 4.36 and 2.54 °C, dependent on low or high states of atmospheric CO2 concentration, respectively, with a threshold at approximately 1000 ppm in this model, and due to a saturated vegetation-albedo feedback. Our method gives a quantitative ranking of the influence of each of the

  10. Northern Hemisphere forcing of Southern Hemisphere climate during the last deglaciation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Feng; Shakun, Jeremy D; Clark, Peter U; Carlson, Anders E; Liu, Zhengyu; Otto-Bliesner, Bette L; Kutzbach, John E

    2013-02-07

    According to the Milankovitch theory, changes in summer insolation in the high-latitude Northern Hemisphere caused glacial cycles through their impact on ice-sheet mass balance. Statistical analyses of long climate records supported this theory, but they also posed a substantial challenge by showing that changes in Southern Hemisphere climate were in phase with or led those in the north. Although an orbitally forced Northern Hemisphere signal may have been transmitted to the Southern Hemisphere, insolation forcing can also directly influence local Southern Hemisphere climate, potentially intensified by sea-ice feedback, suggesting that the hemispheres may have responded independently to different aspects of orbital forcing. Signal processing of climate records cannot distinguish between these conditions, however, because the proposed insolation forcings share essentially identical variability. Here we use transient simulations with a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model to identify the impacts of forcing from changes in orbits, atmospheric CO(2) concentration, ice sheets and the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) on hemispheric temperatures during the first half of the last deglaciation (22-14.3 kyr BP). Although based on a single model, our transient simulation with only orbital changes supports the Milankovitch theory in showing that the last deglaciation was initiated by rising insolation during spring and summer in the mid-latitude to high-latitude Northern Hemisphere and by terrestrial snow-albedo feedback. The simulation with all forcings best reproduces the timing and magnitude of surface temperature evolution in the Southern Hemisphere in deglacial proxy records. AMOC changes associated with an orbitally induced retreat of Northern Hemisphere ice sheets is the most plausible explanation for the early Southern Hemisphere deglacial warming and its lead over Northern Hemisphere temperature; the ensuing rise in atmospheric CO(2

  11. Tectonics, orbital forcing, global climate change, and human evolution in Africa: introduction to the African paleoclimate special volume.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maslin, Mark A; Christensen, Beth

    2007-11-01

    The late Cenozoic climate of Africa is a critical component for understanding human evolution. African climate is controlled by major tectonic changes, global climate transitions, and local variations in orbital forcing. We introduce the special African Paleoclimate Issue of the Journal of Human Evolution by providing a background for and synthesis of the latest work relating to the environmental context for human evolution. Records presented in this special issue suggest that the regional tectonics, appearance of C(4) plants in East Africa, and late Cenozoic global cooling combined to produce a long-term drying trend in East Africa. Of particular importance is the uplift associated with the East African Rift Valley formation, which altered wind flow patterns from a more zonal to more meridinal direction. Results in this volume suggest a marked difference in the climate history of southern and eastern Africa, though both are clearly influenced by the major global climate thresholds crossed in the last 3 million years. Papers in this volume present lake, speleothem, and marine paleoclimate records showing that the East African long-term drying trend is punctuated by episodes of short, alternating periods of extreme wetness and aridity. These periods of extreme climate variability are characterized by the precession-forced appearance and disappearance of large, deep lakes in the East African Rift Valley and paralleled by low and high wind-driven dust loads reaching the adjacent ocean basins. Dating of these records show that over the last 3 million years such periods only occur at the times of major global climatic transitions, such as the intensification of Northern Hemisphere Glaciation (2.7-2.5 Ma), intensification of the Walker Circulation (1.9-1.7 Ma), and the Mid-Pleistocene Revolution (1-0.7 Ma). Authors in this volume suggest this onset occurs as high latitude forcing in both Hemispheres compresses the Intertropical Convergence Zone so that East Africa

  12. Radiolarian abundance - A monsoon proxy responding to the Earth`s orbital forcing: Inferences on the mid-Brunhes climate shift

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Gupta, S.M.

    stream_size 32348 stream_content_type text/plain stream_name Earth_Sci_India_2_1.pdf.txt stream_source_info Earth_Sci_India_2_1.pdf.txt Content-Encoding UTF-8 Content-Type text/plain; charset=UTF-8 Gupta http://www....earthscienceindia.info/Gupta.htm 1 of 8 1/28/2009 3:14 PM Earth Science India Vol.2 (I),January, 2009, pp. 1-20 http://www.earthscienceindia.info/ Radiolarian abundance - a monsoon proxy responding to the Earth’s orbital forcing: Inferences on the mid-Brunhes climate shift Shyam...

  13. Influence of orbital forcing and solar activity on water isotopes in precipitation during the mid- and late Holocene

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Dietrich

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available In this study we investigate the impact of mid- and late Holocene orbital forcing and solar activity on variations of the oxygen isotopic composition in precipitation. The investigation is motivated by a recently published speleothem δ18O record from the well-monitored Bunker Cave in Germany. The record reveals some high variability on multi-centennial to millennial scales that does not linearly correspond to orbital forcing. Our model study is based on a set of novel climate simulations performed with the atmosphere general circulation model ECHAM5-wiso enhanced by explicit water isotope diagnostics. From the performed model experiments, we derive the following major results: (1 the response of both orbital and solar forcing lead to changes in surface temperatures and δ18O in precipitation with similar magnitudes during the mid- and late Holocene. (2 Past δ18O anomalies correspond to changing temperatures in the orbital driven simulations. This does not hold true if an additional solar forcing is added. (3 Two orbital driven mid-Holocene experiments, simulating the mean climate state approximately 5000 and 6000 yr ago, yield very similar results. However, if an identical additional solar activity-induced forcing is added, the simulated changes of surface temperatures as well as δ18O between both periods differ. We conclude from our simulation results that non-linear effects and feedbacks of the orbital and solar activity forcing substantially alter the δ18O in precipitation pattern and its relation to temperature change.

  14. Achieving Climate Change Absolute Accuracy in Orbit

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wielicki, Bruce A.; Young, D. F.; Mlynczak, M. G.; Thome, K. J; Leroy, S.; Corliss, J.; Anderson, J. G.; Ao, C. O.; Bantges, R.; Best, F.; hide

    2013-01-01

    The Climate Absolute Radiance and Refractivity Observatory (CLARREO) mission will provide a calibration laboratory in orbit for the purpose of accurately measuring and attributing climate change. CLARREO measurements establish new climate change benchmarks with high absolute radiometric accuracy and high statistical confidence across a wide range of essential climate variables. CLARREO's inherently high absolute accuracy will be verified and traceable on orbit to Système Internationale (SI) units. The benchmarks established by CLARREO will be critical for assessing changes in the Earth system and climate model predictive capabilities for decades into the future as society works to meet the challenge of optimizing strategies for mitigating and adapting to climate change. The CLARREO benchmarks are derived from measurements of the Earth's thermal infrared spectrum (5-50 micron), the spectrum of solar radiation reflected by the Earth and its atmosphere (320-2300 nm), and radio occultation refractivity from which accurate temperature profiles are derived. The mission has the ability to provide new spectral fingerprints of climate change, as well as to provide the first orbiting radiometer with accuracy sufficient to serve as the reference transfer standard for other space sensors, in essence serving as a "NIST [National Institute of Standards and Technology] in orbit." CLARREO will greatly improve the accuracy and relevance of a wide range of space-borne instruments for decadal climate change. Finally, CLARREO has developed new metrics and methods for determining the accuracy requirements of climate observations for a wide range of climate variables and uncertainty sources. These methods should be useful for improving our understanding of observing requirements for most climate change observations.

  15. Climatic changes on orbital and sub-orbital time scale recorded by the Guliya ice core in Tibetan Plateau

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    姚檀栋; 徐柏青; 蒲健辰

    2001-01-01

    Based on ice core records in the Tibetan Plateau and Greenland, the features and possible causes of climatic changes on orbital and sub-orbital time scale were discussed. Orbital time scale climatic change recorded in ice core from the Tibetan Plateau is typically ahead of that from polar regions, which indicates that climatic change in the Tibetan Plateau might be earlier than polar regions. The solar radiation change is a major factor that dominates the climatic change on orbital time scale. However, climatic events on sub-orbital time scale occurred later in the Tibetan Plateau than in the Arctic Region, indicating a different mechanism. For example, the Younger Dryas and Heinrich events took place earlier in Greenland ice core record than in Guliya ice core record. It is reasonable to propose the hypothesis that these climatic events were affected possibly by the Laurentide Ice Sheet. Therefore, ice sheet is critically important to climatic change on sub-orbital time scale in some ice ages.

  16. Climate forcings and climate sensitivities diagnosed from atmospheric global circulation models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Anderson, Bruce T. [Boston University, Department of Geography and Environment, Boston, MA (United States); Knight, Jeff R.; Ringer, Mark A. [Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter (United Kingdom); Deser, Clara; Phillips, Adam S. [National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States); Yoon, Jin-Ho [University of Maryland, Cooperative Institute for Climate and Satellites, Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, College Park, MD (United States); Cherchi, Annalisa [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici, and Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Bologna (Italy)

    2010-12-15

    Understanding the historical and future response of the global climate system to anthropogenic emissions of radiatively active atmospheric constituents has become a timely and compelling concern. At present, however, there are uncertainties in: the total radiative forcing associated with changes in the chemical composition of the atmosphere; the effective forcing applied to the climate system resulting from a (temporary) reduction via ocean-heat uptake; and the strength of the climate feedbacks that subsequently modify this forcing. Here a set of analyses derived from atmospheric general circulation model simulations are used to estimate the effective and total radiative forcing of the observed climate system due to anthropogenic emissions over the last 50 years of the twentieth century. They are also used to estimate the sensitivity of the observed climate system to these emissions, as well as the expected change in global surface temperatures once the climate system returns to radiative equilibrium. Results indicate that estimates of the effective radiative forcing and total radiative forcing associated with historical anthropogenic emissions differ across models. In addition estimates of the historical sensitivity of the climate to these emissions differ across models. However, results suggest that the variations in climate sensitivity and total climate forcing are not independent, and that the two vary inversely with respect to one another. As such, expected equilibrium temperature changes, which are given by the product of the total radiative forcing and the climate sensitivity, are relatively constant between models, particularly in comparison to results in which the total radiative forcing is assumed constant. Implications of these results for projected future climate forcings and subsequent responses are also discussed. (orig.)

  17. Climate forcing by anthropogenic aerosols

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Charlson, R J; Schwartz, S E; Hales, J M; Cess, R D; Coakley, Jr, J A; Hansen, J E; Hofmann, D J [University of Washington, Seattle, WA (USA). Inst. for Environmental Studies, Dept. of Atmospheric Sciences

    1992-01-24

    Although long considered to be of marginal importance to global climate change, tropospheric aerosol contributes substantially to radiative forcing, and anthropogenic sulfate aerosol in particular has imposed a major perturbation to this forcing. Both the direct scattering of short wavelength solar radiation and the modification of the shortwave reflective properties of clouds by sulfate aerosol particles increase planetary albedo, thereby exerting a cooling influence on the planet. Current climate forcing due to anthropogenic sulfate is estimated to be -1 to -2 watts per square metre, globally averaged. This perturbation is comparable in magnitude to current anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing but opposite in sign. Thus, the aerosol forcing has likely offset global greenhouse warming to a substantial degree. However, differences in geographical and seasonal distributions of these forcings preclude any simple compensation. Aerosol effects must be taken into account in evaluating anthropogenic influences on past, current, and projected future climate and in formulating policy regarding controls on emission of greenhouse gases and sulfur dioxide. Resolution of such policy issues requires integrated research on the magnitude and geographical distribution of aerosol climate forcing and on the controlling chemical and physical processes. 73 refs., 4 figs., 2 tabs.

  18. Climate forcing by anthropogenic aerosols.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Charlson, R J; Schwartz, S E; Hales, J M; Cess, R D; Coakley, J A; Hansen, J E; Hofmann, D J

    1992-01-24

    Although long considered to be of marginal importance to global climate change, tropospheric aerosol contributes substantially to radiative forcing, and anthropogenic sulfate aerosol in particular has imposed a major perturbation to this forcing. Both the direct scattering of shortwavelength solar radiation and the modification of the shortwave reflective properties of clouds by sulfate aerosol particles increase planetary albedo, thereby exerting a cooling influence on the planet. Current climate forcing due to anthropogenic sulfate is estimated to be -1 to -2 watts per square meter, globally averaged. This perturbation is comparable in magnitude to current anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing but opposite in sign. Thus, the aerosol forcing has likely offset global greenhouse warming to a substantial degree. However, differences in geographical and seasonal distributions of these forcings preclude any simple compensation. Aerosol effects must be taken into account in evaluating anthropogenic influences on past, current, and projected future climate and in formulating policy regarding controls on emission of greenhouse gases and sulfur dioxide. Resolution of such policy issues requires integrated research on the magnitude and geographical distribution of aerosol climate forcing and on the controlling chemical and physical processes.

  19. Orbitally forced sedimentary rhythms in the stratigraphic record: is there room for tidal forcing?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boer, P.L. de; Trabucho Alexandre, J.

    2011-01-01

    The imprint of orbital cycles, which result from the varying eccentricity of the Earth’s orbit and changes in the orientation of its axis, have been recognised throughout the Phanerozoic rock record. Variations in insolation and their effect on climate are generally considered to be the sole

  20. Climate hypersensitivity to solar forcing?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W. Soon

    2000-05-01

    Full Text Available We compare the equilibrium climate responses of a quasi-dynamical energy balance model to radiative forcing by equivalent changes in CO2, solar total irradiance (Stot and solar UV (SUV. The response is largest in the SUV case, in which the imposed UV radiative forcing is preferentially absorbed in the layer above 250 mb, in contrast to the weak response from global-columnar radiative loading by increases in CO2 or Stot. The hypersensitive response of the climate system to solar UV forcing is caused by strongly coupled feedback involving vertical static stability, tropical thick cirrus ice clouds and stratospheric ozone. This mechanism offers a plausible explanation of the apparent hypersensitivity of climate to solar forcing, as suggested by analyses of recent climatic records. The model hypersensitivity strongly depends on climate parameters, especially cloud radiative properties, but is effective for arguably realistic values of these parameters. The proposed solar forcing mechanism should be further confirmed using other models (e.g., general circulation models that may better capture radiative and dynamical couplings of the troposphere and stratosphere.Key words: Meteorology and atmospheric dynamics (climatology · general or miscellaneous · Solar physics · astrophysics · and astronomy (ultraviolet emissions

  1. The role of orbital forcing, carbon dioxide and regolith in 100 kyr glacial cycles

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Ganopolski

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available The origin of the 100 kyr cyclicity, which dominates ice volume variations and other climate records over the past million years, remains debatable. Here, using a comprehensive Earth system model of intermediate complexity, we demonstrate that both strong 100 kyr periodicity in the ice volume variations and the timing of glacial terminations during past 800 kyr can be successfully simulated as direct, strongly nonlinear responses of the climate-cryosphere system to orbital forcing alone, if the atmospheric CO2 concentration stays below its typical interglacial value. The existence of long glacial cycles is primarily attributed to the North American ice sheet and requires the presence of a large continental area with exposed rocks. We show that the sharp, 100 kyr peak in the power spectrum of ice volume results from the long glacial cycles being synchronized with the Earth's orbital eccentricity. Although 100 kyr cyclicity can be simulated with a constant CO2 concentration, temporal variability in the CO2 concentration plays an important role in the amplification of the 100 kyr cycles.

  2. Reflections on the nature of non-linear responses of the climate to forcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ditlevsen, Peter

    2017-04-01

    On centennial to multi-millennial time scales the paleoclimatic record shows that climate responds in a very non-linear way to the external forcing. Perhaps most puzzling is the change in glacial period duration at the Middle Pleistocene Transition. From a dynamical systems perspective, this could be a change in frequency locking between the orbital forcing and the climatic response or it could be a non-linear resonance phenomenon. In both cases the climate system shows a non-trivial oscillatory behaviour. From the records it seems that this behaviour can be described by an effective dynamics on a low-dimensional slow manifold. These different possible dynamical behaviours will be discussed. References: Arianna Marchionne, Peter Ditlevsen, and Sebastian Wieczorek, "Three types of nonlinear resonances", arXiv:1605.00858 Peter Ashwin and Peter Ditlevsen, "The middle Pleistocene transition as a generic bifurcation on a slow manifold", Climate Dynamics, 45, 2683, 2015. Peter D. Ditlevsen, "The bifurcation structure and noise assisted transitions in the Pleistocene glacial cycles", Paleoceanography, 24, PA3204, 2009

  3. Application on forced traction test in surgeries for orbital blowout fracture

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bao-Hong Han

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available AIM: To discuss the application of forced traction test in surgeries for orbital blowout fracture.METHODS: The clinical data of 28 patients with reconstructive surgeries for orbital fracture were retrospectively analyzed. All patients were treated with forced traction test before/in/after operation. The eyeball movement and diplopia were examined and recorded pre-operation, 3 and 6mo after operation, respectively.RESULTS: Diplopia was improved in all 28 cases with forced traction test. There was significant difference between preoperative and post-operative diplopia at 3 and 6mo(PCONCLUSION: Forced traction test not only have a certain clinical significance in diagnosis of orbital blowout fracture, it is also an effective method in improving diplopia before/in/after operation.

  4. A technician works on the Mars Climate Orbiter in SAEF-2

    Science.gov (United States)

    1998-01-01

    In the Spacecraft Assembly and Encapsulation Facility-2 (SAEF-2), a technician works on the Mars Climate Orbiter which is scheduled to launch on Dec. 10, 1998, aboard a Boeing Delta II rocket. The Mars Climate Orbiter is heading for Mars where it will primarily support its companion Mars Polar Lander spacecraft, planned for launch on Jan. 3, 1999. After that, the Mars Climate Orbiter's instruments will monitor the Martian atmosphere and image the planet's surface on a daily basis for one Martian year (two Earth years). It will observe the appearance and movement of atmospheric dust and water vapor, as well as characterize seasonal changes on the surface. The detailed images of the surface features will provide important clues to the planet's early climate history and give scientists more information about possible liquid water reserves beneath the surface.

  5. The climatic out of control. the climatic forcing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bony-Lena, S.; Dufresne, J.L.; Acot, P.; Friedlingstein, P.; Berger, A.; Loutre, M.L.; Raynaud, D.; Thuiller, W.; Le Treut, H.; Houssais, M.N.; Duplessy, J.C.; Royer, J.F.; Douville, H.; Barberousse, A.; Quinon, P.

    2007-01-01

    The expert group on the climate evolution affirms that the global warming is unequivocal and that the human being is the main responsible. This document broaches the climatic change under many aspects: the principle, the historical aspect of the greenhouse effect, the GIEC, the carbon cycle, the paleo-climate theory, the antarctic ices and the impacts of the climatic change on the biodiversity, the simulations and the models, the climatic indicators and the climatic forcing by human activities. (A.L.B.)

  6. Irrigation as an Historical Climate Forcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cook, Benjamin I.; Shukla, Sonali P.; Puma, Michael J.; Nazarenko, Larissa S.

    2014-01-01

    Irrigation is the single largest anthropogenic water use, a modification of the land surface that significantly affects surface energy budgets, the water cycle, and climate. Irrigation, however, is typically not included in standard historical general circulation model (GCM) simulations along with other anthropogenic and natural forcings. To investigate the importance of irrigation as an anthropogenic climate forcing, we conduct two 5-member ensemble GCM experiments. Both are setup identical to the historical forced (anthropogenic plus natural) scenario used in version 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, but in one experiment we also add water to the land surface using a dataset of historically estimated irrigation rates. Irrigation has a negligible effect on the global average radiative balance at the top of the atmosphere, but causes significant cooling of global average surface air temperatures over land and dampens regional warming trends. This cooling is regionally focused and is especially strong in Western North America, the Mediterranean, the Middle East, and Asia. Irrigation enhances cloud cover and precipitation in these same regions, except for summer in parts of Monsoon Asia, where irrigation causes a reduction in monsoon season precipitation. Irrigation cools the surface, reducing upward fluxes of longwave radiation (increasing net longwave), and increases cloud cover, enhancing shortwave reflection (reducing net shortwave). The relative magnitude of these two processes causes regional increases (northern India) or decreases (Central Asia, China) in energy availability at the surface and top of the atmosphere. Despite these changes in net radiation, however, climate responses are due primarily to larger magnitude shifts in the Bowen ratio from sensible to latent heating. Irrigation impacts on temperature, precipitation, and other climate variables are regionally significant, even while other anthropogenic forcings (anthropogenic aerosols

  7. Elliptical Orbit [arrow right] 1/r[superscript 2] Force

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prentis, Jeffrey; Fulton, Bryan; Hesse, Carol; Mazzino, Laura

    2007-01-01

    Newton's proof of the connection between elliptical orbits and inverse-square forces ranks among the "top ten" calculations in the history of science. This time-honored calculation is a highlight in an upper-level mechanics course. It would be worthwhile if students in introductory physics could prove the relation "elliptical orbit" [arrow right]…

  8. Orbital Noise in the Earth System and Climate Fluctuations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Han-Shou; Smith, David E. (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    Frequency noise in the variations of the Earth's obliquity (tilt) can modulate the insolation signal for climate change. Including this frequency noise effect on the incoming solar radiation, we have applied an energy balance climate model to calculate the climate fluctuations for the past one million years. Model simulation results are in good agreement with the geologically observed paleoclimate data. We conclude that orbital noise in the Earth system may be the major cause of the climate fluctuation cycles.

  9. Classical description of dynamical many-body systems with central forces, spin-orbit forces and spin-spin forces

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goepfert, A.

    1994-01-01

    This thesis develops a new model, and related numerical methods, to describe classical time-dependent many-body systems interacting through central forces, spin-orbit forces and spin-spin forces. The model is based on two-particle interactions. The two-body forces consist of attractive and repulsive parts. In this model the investigated multi-particle systems are self-bound. Also the total potential of the whole ensemble is derived from the two-particle potential and is not imposed 'from outside'. Each particle has the three degrees of freedom of its centre-of-mass motion and the spin degree of freedom. The model allows for the particles to be either charged or uncharged. Furthermore, each particle has an angular momentum, an intrinsic spin, and a magnetic dipole moment. Through the electromagnetic forces between these charges and moments there arise dynamical couplings between them. The internal interactions between the charges and moments are well described by electromagnetic coupling mechanisms. In fact, compared to conventional classical molecular dynamics calculations in van der Waals clusters, which have no spin degrees of freedom, or for Heisenberg spin Systems, which have no orbital degrees of freedom, the model presented here contains both types of degrees of freedom with a highly non-trivial coupling. The model allows to study the fundamental effects resulting from the dynamical coupling of the spin and the orbital-motion sub-systems. In particular, the dynamics of the particle mass points show a behaviour basically different from the one of particles in a potential with only central forces. Furthermore, a special type of quenching procedure was invented, which tends to drive the multi-particle Systems into states with highly periodic, non-ergodic behaviour. Application of the model to cluster simulations has provided evidence that the model can also be used to investigate items like solid-to-liquid phase transitions (melting), isomerism and specific heat

  10. Modeling of Non-Gravitational Forces for Precise and Accurate Orbit Determination

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hackel, Stefan; Gisinger, Christoph; Steigenberger, Peter; Balss, Ulrich; Montenbruck, Oliver; Eineder, Michael

    2014-05-01

    Remote sensing satellites support a broad range of scientific and commercial applications. The two radar imaging satellites TerraSAR-X and TanDEM-X provide spaceborne Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) and interferometric SAR data with a very high accuracy. The precise reconstruction of the satellite's trajectory is based on the Global Positioning System (GPS) measurements from a geodetic-grade dual-frequency Integrated Geodetic and Occultation Receiver (IGOR) onboard the spacecraft. The increasing demand for precise radar products relies on validation methods, which require precise and accurate orbit products. An analysis of the orbit quality by means of internal and external validation methods on long and short timescales shows systematics, which reflect deficits in the employed force models. Following the proper analysis of this deficits, possible solution strategies are highlighted in the presentation. The employed Reduced Dynamic Orbit Determination (RDOD) approach utilizes models for gravitational and non-gravitational forces. A detailed satellite macro model is introduced to describe the geometry and the optical surface properties of the satellite. Two major non-gravitational forces are the direct and the indirect Solar Radiation Pressure (SRP). The satellite TerraSAR-X flies on a dusk-dawn orbit with an altitude of approximately 510 km above ground. Due to this constellation, the Sun almost constantly illuminates the satellite, which causes strong across-track accelerations on the plane rectangular to the solar rays. The indirect effect of the solar radiation is called Earth Radiation Pressure (ERP). This force depends on the sunlight, which is reflected by the illuminated Earth surface (visible spectra) and the emission of the Earth body in the infrared spectra. Both components of ERP require Earth models to describe the optical properties of the Earth surface. Therefore, the influence of different Earth models on the orbit quality is assessed. The scope of

  11. Glacial cycles: exogenous orbital changes vs. endogenous climate dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaufmann, R. K.; Juselius, K.

    2010-04-01

    We use a statistical model, the cointegrated vector autoregressive model, to assess the degree to which variations in Earth's orbit and endogenous climate dynamics can be used to simulate glacial cycles during the late Quaternary (390 kyr-present). To do so, we estimate models of varying complexity and compare the accuracy of their in-sample simulations. Results indicate that strong statistical associations between endogenous climate variables are not enough for statistical models to reproduce glacial cycles. Rather, changes in solar insolation associated with changes in Earth's orbit are needed to simulate glacial cycles accurately. Also, results suggest that non-linear dynamics, threshold effects, and/or free oscillations may not play an overriding role in glacial cycles.

  12. CLIMATE PATTERNS OF HABITABLE EXOPLANETS IN ECCENTRIC ORBITS AROUND M DWARFS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, Yuwei; Hu, Yongyun [Laboratory for Climate and Ocean-Atmosphere Sciences, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, School of Physics, Peking University, Beijing 100871 China (China); Tian, Feng, E-mail: yyhu@pku.edu.cn [Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Center for Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084 (China)

    2014-08-10

    Previous studies show that synchronous rotating habitable exoplanets around M dwarfs should have an ''eyeball'' climate pattern—a limited region of open water on the day side and ice on the rest of the planet. However, exoplanets with nonzero eccentricities could have spin-orbit resonance states different from the synchronous rotation state. Here, we show that a striped-ball climate pattern, with a global belt of open water at low and middle latitudes and ice over both polar regions, should be common on habitable exoplanets in eccentric orbits around M dwarfs. We further show that these different climate patterns can be observed by future exoplanet detection missions.

  13. Unexpected weak seasonal climate in the western Mediterranean region during MIS 31, a high-insolation forced interglacial

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oliveira, Dulce; Sánchez Goñi, Maria Fernanda; Naughton, Filipa; Polanco-Martínez, J. M.; Jimenez-Espejo, Francisco J.; Grimalt, Joan O.; Martrat, Belen; Voelker, Antje H. L.; Trigo, Ricardo; Hodell, David; Abrantes, Fátima; Desprat, Stéphanie

    2017-04-01

    Marine Isotope Stage 31 (MIS 31) is an important analogue for ongoing and projected global warming, yet key questions remain about the regional signature of its extreme orbital forcing and intra-interglacial variability. Based on a new direct land-sea comparison in SW Iberian margin IODP Site U1385 we examine the climatic variability between 1100 and 1050 ka including the ;super interglacial; MIS 31, a period dominated by the 41-ky obliquity periodicity. Pollen and biomarker analyses at centennial-scale-resolution provide new insights into the regional vegetation, precipitation regime and atmospheric and oceanic temperature variability on orbital and suborbital timescales. Our study reveals that atmospheric and SST warmth during MIS 31 was not exceptional in this region highly sensitive to precession. Unexpectedly, this warm stage stands out as a prolonged interval of a temperate and humid climate regime with reduced seasonality, despite the high insolation (precession minima values) forcing. We find that the dominant forcing on the long-term temperate forest development was obliquity, which may have induced a decrease in summer dryness and associated reduction in seasonal precipitation contrast. Moreover, this study provides the first evidence for persistent atmospheric millennial-scale variability during this interval with multiple forest decline events reflecting repeated cooling and drying episodes in SW Iberia. Our direct land-sea comparison shows that the expression of the suborbital cooling events on SW Iberian ecosystems is modulated by the predominance of high or low-latitude forcing depending on the glacial/interglacial baseline climate states. Severe dryness and air-sea cooling is detected under the larger ice volume during glacial MIS 32 and MIS 30. The extreme episodes, which in their climatic imprint are similar to the Heinrich events, are likely related to northern latitude ice-sheet instability and a disruption of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning

  14. Mitigating Climate Change with Earth Orbital Sunshades

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coverstone, Victoria; Johnson, Les

    2015-01-01

    An array of rotating sunshades based on emerging solar sail technology will be deployed in a novel Earth orbit to provide near-continuous partial shading of the Earth, reducing the heat input to the atmosphere by blocking a small percentage of the incoming sunlight, and mitigating local weather effects of anticipated climate change over the next century. The technology will provide local cooling relief during extreme heat events (and heating relief during extreme cold events) thereby saving human lives, agriculture, livestock, water and energy needs. A synthesis of the solar sail design, the sails' operational modes, and the selected orbit combine to provide local weather modification.

  15. Sensitivity of the Greenland Ice Sheet to Interglacial Climate Forcing: MIS 5e Versus MIS 11

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rachmayani, Rima; Prange, Matthias; Lunt, Daniel J.; Stone, Emma J.; Schulz, Michael

    2017-11-01

    The Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) is thought to have contributed substantially to high global sea levels during the interglacials of Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 5e and 11. Geological evidence suggests that the mass loss of the GrIS was greater during the peak interglacial of MIS 11 than MIS 5e, despite a weaker boreal summer insolation. We address this conundrum by using the three-dimensional thermomechanical ice sheet model Glimmer forced by Community Climate System Model version 3 output for MIS 5e and MIS 11 interglacial time slices. Our results suggest a stronger sensitivity of the GrIS to MIS 11 climate forcing than to MIS 5e forcing. Besides stronger greenhouse gas radiative forcing, the greater MIS 11 GrIS mass loss relative to MIS 5e is attributed to a larger oceanic heat transport toward high latitudes by a stronger Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. The vigorous MIS 11 ocean overturning, in turn, is related to a stronger wind-driven salt transport from low to high latitudes promoting North Atlantic Deep Water formation. The orbital insolation forcing, which causes the ocean current anomalies, is discussed.

  16. How weather impacts the forced climate response

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kirtman, Ben P. [University of Miami, Division of Meteorology and Physical Oceanography, Rosenstiel School for Atmospheric and Marine Science, Miami, FL (United States); Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, Calverton, MD (United States); Schneider, Edwin K.; Straus, David M. [George Mason University, Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic and Earth Sciences, Fairfax, VA (United States); Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, Calverton, MD (United States); Min, Dughong; Burgman, Robert [University of Miami, Division of Meteorology and Physical Oceanography, Rosenstiel School for Atmospheric and Marine Science, Miami, FL (United States)

    2011-12-15

    The new interactive ensemble modeling strategy is used to diagnose how noise due to internal atmospheric dynamics impacts the forced climate response during the twentieth century (i.e., 1870-1999). The interactive ensemble uses multiple realizations of the atmospheric component model coupled to a single realization of the land, ocean and ice component models in order to reduce the noise due to internal atmospheric dynamics in the flux exchange at the interface of the component models. A control ensemble of so-called climate of the twentieth century simulations of the Community Climate Simulation Model version 3 (CCSM3) are compared with a similar simulation with the interactive ensemble version of CCSM3. Despite substantial differences in the overall mean climate, the global mean trends in surface temperature, 500 mb geopotential and precipitation are largely indistinguishable between the control ensemble and the interactive ensemble. Large differences in the forced response; however, are detected particularly in the surface temperature of the North Atlantic. Associated with the forced North Atlantic surface temperature differences are local differences in the forced precipitation and a substantial remote rainfall response in the deep tropical Pacific. We also introduce a simple variance analysis to separately compare the variance due to noise and the forced response. We find that the noise variance is decreased when external forcing is included. In terms of the forced variance, we find that the interactive ensemble increases this variance relative to the control. (orig.)

  17. Attribution of climate forcing to economic sectors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Unger, Nadine; Bond, Tami C; Wang, James S; Koch, Dorothy M; Menon, Surabi; Shindell, Drew T; Bauer, Susanne

    2010-02-23

    A much-cited bar chart provided by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change displays the climate impact, as expressed by radiative forcing in watts per meter squared, of individual chemical species. The organization of the chart reflects the history of atmospheric chemistry, in which investigators typically focused on a single species of interest. However, changes in pollutant emissions and concentrations are a symptom, not a cause, of the primary driver of anthropogenic climate change: human activity. In this paper, we suggest organizing the bar chart according to drivers of change-that is, by economic sector. Climate impacts of tropospheric ozone, fine aerosols, aerosol-cloud interactions, methane, and long-lived greenhouse gases are considered. We quantify the future evolution of the total radiative forcing due to perpetual constant year 2000 emissions by sector, most relevant for the development of climate policy now, and focus on two specific time points, near-term at 2020 and long-term at 2100. Because sector profiles differ greatly, this approach fosters the development of smart climate policy and is useful to identify effective opportunities for rapid mitigation of anthropogenic radiative forcing.

  18. Tracking variable sedimentation rates in orbitally forced paleoclimate proxy series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, M.; Kump, L. R.; Hinnov, L.

    2017-12-01

    This study addresses two fundamental issues in cyclostratigraphy: quantitative testing of orbital forcing in cyclic sedimentary sequences and tracking variable sedimentation rates. The methodology proposed here addresses these issues as an inverse problem, and estimates the product-moment correlation coefficient between the frequency spectra of orbital solutions and paleoclimate proxy series over a range of "test" sedimentation rates. It is inspired by the ASM method (1). The number of orbital parameters involved in the estimation is also considered. The method relies on the hypothesis that orbital forcing had a significant impact on the paleoclimate proxy variations, and thus is also tested. The null hypothesis of no astronomical forcing is evaluated using the Beta distribution, for which the shape parameters are estimated using a Monte Carlo simulation approach. We introduce a metric to estimate the most likely sedimentation rate using the product-moment correlation coefficient, H0 significance level, and the number of contributing orbital parameters, i.e., the CHO value. The CHO metric is applied with a sliding window to track variable sedimentation rates along the paleoclimate proxy series. Two forward models with uniform and variable sedimentation rates are evaluated to demonstrate the robustness of the method. The CHO method is applied to the classical Late Triassic Newark depth rank series; the estimated sedimentation rates match closely with previously published sedimentation rates and provide a more highly time-resolved estimate (2,3). References: (1) Meyers, S.R., Sageman, B.B., Amer. J. Sci., 307, 773-792, 2007; (2) Kent, D.V., Olsen, P.E., Muttoni, G., Earth-Sci. Rev.166, 153-180, 2017; (3) Li, M., Zhang, Y., Huang, C., Ogg, J., Hinnov, L., Wang, Y., Zou, Z., Li, L., 2017. Earth Plant. Sc. Lett. doi:10.1016/j.epsl.2017.07.015

  19. Varying Influence of Different Forcings on the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohtadi, M.; Huang, E.; Hollstein, M.; Chen, Y.; Schefuß, E.; Rosenthal, Y.; Prange, M.; Oppo, D.; Liu, J.; Steinke, S.; Martinez-Mendez, G.; Tian, J.; Moffa-Sanchez, P.; Lückge, A.

    2017-12-01

    Proxy records of rainfall in marine archives from the eastern and western parts of the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool (IPWP) vary at precessional band and suggest a dominant role of orbital forcing by modulating monsoon rainfall and the position of the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone. Rainfall changes recorded in marine archives from the northern South China Sea reveal a more complex history. They are largely consistent with those recorded in the Chinese cave speleothems during glacial periods, but show opposite changes during interglacial peaks that coincide with strong Northern Hemisphere summer insolation maxima. During glacial periods, the establishment of massive Northern Hemisphere ice sheets and the exposure of broad continental shelves in East and Southeast Asia alter the large-scale routes and amounts of water vapor transport onto land relative to interglacials. Precipitation over China during glacials varies at precessional band and is dominated by water vapor transport from the nearby tropical and northwest Pacific, resulting in consistent changes in precipitation over large areas. In the absence of ice forcing during peak interglacials with a strong summer insolation, the low-level southerly monsoonal winds mainly of the Indian Ocean origin penetrate further landward and rainout along their path over China. Subsurface temperatures from the IPWP lack changes on glacial-interglacial timescales but follow the obliquity cycle, and suggest that obliquity-paced climate variations at mid-latitudes remotely control subsurface temperatures in the IPWP. Temperature and rainfall in the IPWP respond primarily to abrupt climate changes in the North Atlantic on millennial timescales, and to ENSO and solar forcing on interannual to decadal timescales. In summary, results from marine records reveal that the IPWP climate is sensitive to changes in spatial and temporal distribution of heat by many types of forcing, the influence of which seems to vary in time and space.

  20. Orbital Noise in the Earth System is a Common Cause of Climate and Greenhouse-Gas Fluctuation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, H. S.; Kolenkiewicz, R.; Wade, C., Jr.; Smith, David E. (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    The mismatch between fossil isotopic data and climate models known as the cool-tropic paradox implies that either the data are flawed or we understand very little about the climate models of greenhouse warming. Here we question the validity of the climate models on the scientific background of orbital noise in the Earth system. Our study shows that the insolation pulsation induced by orbital noise is the common cause of climate change and atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide and methane. In addition, we find that the intensity of the insolation pulses is dependent on the latitude of the Earth. Thus, orbital noise is the key to understanding the troubling paradox in climate models.

  1. Glacial cycles:exogenous orbital changes vs. endogenous climate dynamics

    OpenAIRE

    Kaufmann, R. K.; Juselius, Katarina

    2010-01-01

    We use a statistical model, the cointegrated vector autoregressive model, to assess the degree to which variations in Earth's orbit and endogenous climate dynamics can be used to simulate glacial cycles during the late Quaternary (390 kyr-present). To do so, we estimate models of varying complexity and compare the accuracy of their in-sample simulations. Results indicate that strong statistical associations between endogenous climate variables are not enough for statistical models to reproduc...

  2. CLIMATE CHANGE. Long-term climate forcing by atmospheric oxygen concentrations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poulsen, Christopher J; Tabor, Clay; White, Joseph D

    2015-06-12

    The percentage of oxygen in Earth's atmosphere varied between 10% and 35% throughout the Phanerozoic. These changes have been linked to the evolution, radiation, and size of animals but have not been considered to affect climate. We conducted simulations showing that modulation of the partial pressure of oxygen (pO2), as a result of its contribution to atmospheric mass and density, influences the optical depth of the atmosphere. Under low pO2 and a reduced-density atmosphere, shortwave scattering by air molecules and clouds is less frequent, leading to a substantial increase in surface shortwave forcing. Through feedbacks involving latent heat fluxes to the atmosphere and marine stratus clouds, surface shortwave forcing drives increases in atmospheric water vapor and global precipitation, enhances greenhouse forcing, and raises global surface temperature. Our results implicate pO2 as an important factor in climate forcing throughout geologic time. Copyright © 2015, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

  3. Testing For The Linearity of Responses To Multiple Anthropogenic Climate Forcings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forest, C. E.; Stone, P. H.; Sokolov, A. P.

    To test whether climate forcings are additive, we compare climate model simulations in which anthropogenic forcings are applied individually and in combination. Tests are performed with different values for climate system properties (climate sensitivity and rate of heat uptake by the deep ocean) as well as for different strengths of the net aerosol forcing, thereby testing for the dependence of linearity on these properties. The MIT 2D Land-Ocean Climate Model used in this study consists of a zonally aver- aged statistical-dynamical atmospheric model coupled to a mixed-layer Q-flux ocean model, with heat anomalies diffused into the deep ocean. Following our previous stud- ies, the anthropogenic forcings are the changes in concentrations of greenhouse gases (1860-1995), sulfate aerosol (1860-1995), and stratospheric and tropospheric ozone (1979-1995). The sulfate aerosol forcing is applied as a surface albedo change. For an aerosol forcing of -1.0 W/m2 and an effective ocean diffusitivity of 2.5 cm2/s, the nonlinearity of the response of global-mean surface temperatures to the combined forcing shows a strong dependence on climate sensitivity. The fractional change in decadal averages ([(TG + TS + TO) - TGSO]/TGSO) for the 1986-1995 period compared to pre-industrial times are 0.43, 0.90, and 1.08 with climate sensitiv- ities of 3.0, 4.5, and 6.2 C, respectively. The values of TGSO for these three cases o are 0.52, 0.62, and 0.76 C. The dependence of linearity on climate system properties, o the role of climate system feedbacks, and the implications for the detection of climate system's response to individual forcings will be presented. Details of the model and forcings can be found at http://web.mit.edu/globalchange/www/.

  4. Present status of the Japanese Venus climate orbiter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nakamura, M.; Imamura, T.; Abe, T.; Ishii, N.

    The code name of 24th science spacecraft of ISAS/JAXA is Planet-C. It is the first Venus Climate Orbiter (VCO) of Japan. The ministry of finance of Japan finally agreed to start phase B study of VCO from this April, 2004. We plan 1-2 years phase B study followed by 2 years of flight model integration. The spacecraft will be launched between 2009 and 2010. After arriving Venus, 2 years of operation is expected. VCO will complemet the ESA's Venus Express mission which have several spectrometers and will reveal the composition of the Venusian atmosphere. On the other hand, VCO is designed to reveal the details of the atmospheric motion on Venus and approach the dynamics of the Venusian climate. Cooperation between Japanese VCO and ESA's Venus Express, in the colaboration framework of U.S., Europian, and Japanese scienctist is very important. To elucidate the driving mechanism of the 4-days super-rotation is one of our main targets. We have 4 cameras to take snap shots of the planets in different wave lengths. They are the IR1 camera (1 micron-meter), the IR2 camera (2.4 micron-meter), the LIR camera (10-12 micron-meter), and the UVI camera (340nm). They are attached to the side panel of the 3-axis stabilized spacecraft, and are directed to Venus with the spacecraft's attitude control. Snap shots are expected to be taken every 2 hours. The spacecraft has an orbit of 300km x 13Rv (Venusian radii) with 172 degrees inclination. Orbital period is 30 hours. The angular position of the spacecraft on this orbit is synchronized for 20 hours at its apoapsis with the global atmospheric circulation at the altitude of 50km, thus the snap shots of every 2 hours will be the images of the same side of the atmosphere. In addition to these 4 cameras, we have a Lightning and Airglow camera (LAC) in visible range. This will be operated when the orbiter is close to the planet.

  5. Climate Implications of the Heterogeneity of Anthropogenic Aerosol Forcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Persad, Geeta Gayatri

    Short-lived anthropogenic aerosols are concentrated in regions of high human activity, where they interact with radiation and clouds, causing horizontally heterogeneous radiative forcing between polluted and unpolluted regions. Aerosols can absorb shortwave energy in the atmosphere, but deplete it at the surface, producing opposite radiative perturbations between the surface and atmosphere. This thesis investigates climate and policy implications of this horizontal and vertical heterogeneity of anthropogenic aerosol forcing, employing the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's AM2.1 and AM3 models, both at a global scale and using East Asia as a regional case study. The degree of difference between spatial patterns of climate change due to heterogeneous aerosol forcing versus homogeneous greenhouse gas forcing deeply impacts the detection, attribution, and prediction of regional climate change. This dissertation addresses a gap in current understanding of these two forcings' response pattern development, using AM2.1 historical forcing simulations. The results indicate that fast atmospheric and land-surface processes alone substantially homogenize the global pattern of surface energy flux response to heterogeneous aerosol forcing. Aerosols' vertical redistribution of energy significantly impacts regional climate, but is incompletely understood. It is newly identified here, via observations and historical and idealized forcing simulations, that increased aerosol-driven atmospheric absorption may explain half of East Asia's recent surface insolation decline. Further, aerosols' surface and atmospheric effects counteract each other regionally---atmospheric heating enhances summer monsoon circulation, while surface dimming suppresses it---but absorbing aerosols' combined effects reduce summer monsoon rainfall. This thesis constitutes the first vertical decomposition of aerosols' impacts in this high-emissions region and elucidates the monsoonal response to aerosols

  6. Sensitivity of regional climate to global temperature and forcing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tebaldi, Claudia; O’Neill, Brian; Lamarque, Jean-François

    2015-01-01

    The sensitivity of regional climate to global average radiative forcing and temperature change is important for setting global climate policy targets and designing scenarios. Setting effective policy targets requires an understanding of the consequences exceeding them, even by small amounts, and the effective design of sets of scenarios requires the knowledge of how different emissions, concentrations, or forcing need to be in order to produce substantial differences in climate outcomes. Using an extensive database of climate model simulations, we quantify how differences in global average quantities relate to differences in both the spatial extent and magnitude of climate outcomes at regional (250–1250 km) scales. We show that differences of about 0.3 °C in global average temperature are required to generate statistically significant changes in regional annual average temperature over more than half of the Earth’s land surface. A global difference of 0.8 °C is necessary to produce regional warming over half the land surface that is not only significant but reaches at least 1 °C. As much as 2.5 to 3 °C is required for a statistically significant change in regional annual average precipitation that is equally pervasive. Global average temperature change provides a better metric than radiative forcing for indicating differences in regional climate outcomes due to the path dependency of the effects of radiative forcing. For example, a difference in radiative forcing of 0.5 W m −2 can produce statistically significant differences in regional temperature over an area that ranges between 30% and 85% of the land surface, depending on the forcing pathway. (letter)

  7. High Fidelity Non-Gravitational Force Models for Precise and Accurate Orbit Determination of TerraSAR-X

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hackel, Stefan; Montenbruck, Oliver; Steigenberger, -Peter; Eineder, Michael; Gisinger, Christoph

    Remote sensing satellites support a broad range of scientific and commercial applications. The two radar imaging satellites TerraSAR-X and TanDEM-X provide spaceborne Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) and interferometric SAR data with a very high accuracy. The increasing demand for precise radar products relies on sophisticated validation methods, which require precise and accurate orbit products. Basically, the precise reconstruction of the satellite’s trajectory is based on the Global Positioning System (GPS) measurements from a geodetic-grade dual-frequency receiver onboard the spacecraft. The Reduced Dynamic Orbit Determination (RDOD) approach utilizes models for the gravitational and non-gravitational forces. Following a proper analysis of the orbit quality, systematics in the orbit products have been identified, which reflect deficits in the non-gravitational force models. A detailed satellite macro model is introduced to describe the geometry and the optical surface properties of the satellite. Two major non-gravitational forces are the direct and the indirect Solar Radiation Pressure (SRP). Due to the dusk-dawn orbit configuration of TerraSAR-X, the satellite is almost constantly illuminated by the Sun. Therefore, the direct SRP has an effect on the lateral stability of the determined orbit. The indirect effect of the solar radiation principally contributes to the Earth Radiation Pressure (ERP). The resulting force depends on the sunlight, which is reflected by the illuminated Earth surface in the visible, and the emission of the Earth body in the infrared spectra. Both components of ERP require Earth models to describe the optical properties of the Earth surface. Therefore, the influence of different Earth models on the orbit quality is assessed within the presentation. The presentation highlights the influence of non-gravitational force and satellite macro models on the orbit quality of TerraSAR-X.

  8. Implications for Climate Sensitivity from the Response to Individual Forcings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marvel, Kate; Schmidt, Gavin A.; Miller, Ron L.; Nazarenko, Larissa

    2015-01-01

    Climate sensitivity to doubled CO2 is a widely-used metric of the large-scale response to external forcing. Climate models predict a wide range for two commonly used definitions: the transient climate response (TCR: the warming after 70 years of CO2 concentrations that riseat 1 per year), and the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS: the equilibrium temperature change following a doubling of CO2 concentrations). Many observational datasets have been used to constrain these values, including temperature trends over the recent past 16, inferences from paleo-climate and process-based constraints from the modern satellite eras. However, as the IPCC recently reported different classes of observational constraints produce somewhat incongruent ranges. Here we show that climate sensitivity estimates derived from recent observations must account for the efficacy of each forcing active during the historical period. When we use single forcing experiments to estimate these efficacies and calculate climate sensitivity from the observed twentieth-century warming, our estimates of both TCR and ECS are revised upward compared to previous studies, improving the consistency with independent constraints.

  9. Impact of Dust Radiative Forcing upon Climate. Chapter 13

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Ronald L.; Knippertz, Peter; Perez Garcia-Pando, Carlos; Perlwitz, Jan P.; Tegan, Ina

    2014-01-01

    Dust aerosols perturb the atmospheric radiative flux at both solar and thermal wavelengths, altering the energy and water cycles. The climate adjusts by redistributing energy and moisture, so that local temperature perturbations, for example, depend upon the forcing over the entire extent of the perturbed circulation. Within regions frequently mixed by deep convection, including the deep tropics, dust particles perturb the surface air temperature primarily through radiative forcing at the top of the atmosphere (TOA). Many models predict that dust reduces global precipitation. This reduction is typically attributed to the decrease of surface evaporation in response to dimming of the surface. A counterexample is presented, where greater shortwave absorption by dust increases evaporation and precipitation despite greater dimming of the surface. This is attributed to the dependence of surface evaporation upon TOA forcing through its influence upon surface temperature and humidity. Perturbations by dust to the surface wind speed and vegetation (through precipitation anomalies) feed back upon the dust aerosol concentration. The current uncertainty of radiative forcing attributed to dust and the resulting range of climate perturbations calculated by models remain a useful test of our understanding of the mechanisms relating dust radiative forcing to the climate response.

  10. A vigorous Mesoamerican monsoon during the Last Glacial Maximum driven by orbital and oceanic forcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lachniet, M. S.; Asmerom, Y.; Bernal, J. P.; Polyak, V.; Vazquez-Selem, L. V.

    2012-12-01

    The external forcings on global monsoon strength include summer orbital insolation and ocean circulation changes, both of which are key control knobs on Earth's climate. However, few records of the North American Monsoon (NAM) are available to test its sensitivity to variations in the precession-dominated insolation signal and Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) for the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; 21 ± 3 cal ka BP) and deglacial periods. In particular, well-dated and high-resolution records from the southern sector of the NAM, referred to informally as the Mesoamerican monsoon to distinguish it from the more northerly 'core' NAM, are needed to better elucidate paleoclimate change in North America. Here, we present a 22 ka (ka = kilo years) rainfall history from absolutely-dated speleothems from tropical southwestern Mexico that documents a vigorous LGM summer monsoon, in contradiction to previous interpretations, and that the monsoon collapsed during the Heinrich stadial 1 and Younger Dryas cold events. We conclude that a strong Mesoamerican monsoon requires both a large ocean-to-land temperature contrast, driven as today by summer insolation, and a proximal latitudinal position of the Intertropical Convergence Zone, forced by active AMOC.

  11. Forcings and feedbacks by land ecosystem changes on climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Betts, R. A.

    2006-12-01

    Vegetation change is involved in climate change through both forcing and feedback processes. Emissions of CO{2} from past net deforestation are estimated to have contributed approximately 0.22 0.51 Wm - 2 to the overall 1.46 Wm - 2 radiative forcing by anthropogenic increases in CO{2} up to the year 2000. Deforestation-induced increases in global mean surface albedo are estimated to exert a radiative forcing of 0 to -0.2 Wm - 2, and dust emissions from land use may exert a radiative forcing of between approximately +0.1 and -0.2 Wm - 2. Changes in the fluxes of latent and sensible heat due to tropical deforestation are simulated to have exerted other local warming effects which cannot be quantified in terms of a Wm - 2 radiative forcing, with the potential for remote effects through changes in atmospheric circulation. With tropical deforestation continuing rapidly, radiative forcing by surface albedo change may become less useful as a measure of the forcing of climate change by changes in the physical properties of the land surface. Although net global deforestation is continuing, future scenarios used for climate change prediction suggest that fossil fuel emissions of CO{2} may continue to increase at a greater rate than land use emissions and therefore continue to increase in dominance as the main radiative forcing. The CO{2} rise may be accelerated by up to 66% by feedbacks arising from global soil carbon loss and forest dieback in Amazonia as a consequence of climate change, and Amazon forest dieback may also exert feedbacks through changes in the local water cycle and increases in dust emissions.

  12. Climate variations of Central Asia on orbital to millennial timescales.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, Hai; Spötl, Christoph; Breitenbach, Sebastian F M; Sinha, Ashish; Wassenburg, Jasper A; Jochum, Klaus Peter; Scholz, Denis; Li, Xianglei; Yi, Liang; Peng, Youbing; Lv, Yanbin; Zhang, Pingzhong; Votintseva, Antonina; Loginov, Vadim; Ning, Youfeng; Kathayat, Gayatri; Edwards, R Lawrence

    2016-11-11

    The extent to which climate variability in Central Asia is causally linked to large-scale changes in the Asian monsoon on varying timescales remains a longstanding question. Here we present precisely dated high-resolution speleothem oxygen-carbon isotope and trace element records of Central Asia's hydroclimate variability from Tonnel'naya cave, Uzbekistan, and Kesang cave, western China. On orbital timescales, the supra-regional climate variance, inferred from our oxygen isotope records, exhibits a precessional rhythm, punctuated by millennial-scale abrupt climate events, suggesting a close coupling with the Asian monsoon. However, the local hydroclimatic variability at both cave sites, inferred from carbon isotope and trace element records, shows climate variations that are distinctly different from their supra-regional modes. Particularly, hydroclimatic changes in both Tonnel'naya and Kesang areas during the Holocene lag behind the supra-regional climate variability by several thousand years. These observations may reconcile the apparent out-of-phase hydroclimatic variability, inferred from the Holocene lake proxy records, between Westerly Central Asia and Monsoon Asia.

  13. The climatic out of control. the climatic forcing; L'emballement climatique. Le forcage climatique

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bony-Lena, S.; Dufresne, J.L. [Laboratoire de Meteorologie Dynamique, LMD/IPSL, CNRS-UPMC, 75 - Paris (France); Acot, P. [Institut d' histoire et de philosophie des sciences et des techniques (IHPST), CNRS-Univ. Paris-1-ENS, 75 - Paris (France); Friedlingstein, P. [CEA Saclay, Lab. des Sciences du Climat et l' Environnement (LSCE), 91 - Gif-sur-Yvette (France); Berger, A.; Loutre, M.L. [Universite Catholique de Louvain (UCL), Louvain-la-Neuve (Belgium). Inst. d' Astronomie et de Geophysique G. Lemaitre; Jouzel, J. [Institut Pierre Simon Laplace, 75 - Paris (France); Raynaud, D. [Laboratoire de Glaciologie et Geophysique de l' Environnement (UMR 5183), 38 - Saint Martin d' Heres cedex (France); Thuiller, W. [Universite Joseph-Fourier, Lab. d' Ecologie Alpine, CNRS-Univ. Grenoble-1, 38 (France); Le Treut, H. [Laboratoire de Meteorologie dynamique du CNRS, 75 - Paris (France); Houssais, M.N. [Laboratoire d' Oceanographie et du Climat Experimentation et Approches Numerique (LOCEAN / IPSL), 75 - Paris (France); Duplessy, J.C. [Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l' Environnement (LSCE), 91 - Gif sur Yvette (France); Royer, J.F.; Douville, H. [Centre National de Recherches Meteorologiques, 31 - Toulouse (France); Barberousse, A. [Institut d' Histoire et de Philosophie des Sciences et des Techniques, CNRS, ENS, 75 - Paris (France); Quinon, P

    2007-03-15

    The expert group on the climate evolution affirms that the global warming is unequivocal and that the human being is the main responsible. This document broaches the climatic change under many aspects: the principle, the historical aspect of the greenhouse effect, the GIEC, the carbon cycle, the paleo-climate theory, the antarctic ices and the impacts of the climatic change on the biodiversity, the simulations and the models, the climatic indicators and the climatic forcing by human activities. (A.L.B.)

  14. Climate and carbon-cycle response to astronomical forcing over the last 35 Ma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Vleeschouwer, D.; Palike, H.; Vahlenkamp, M.; Crucifix, M.

    2017-12-01

    On a million-year time scale, the characteristics of insolation forcing caused by cyclical variations in the astronomical parameters of the Earth remain stable. Nevertheless, Earth's climate responded very differently to this forcing during different parts of the Cenozoic. The recently-published ∂18Obenthic megasplice (De Vleeschouwer et al., 2017) allowed for a clear visualization of these changes in global climate response to astronomical forcing. However, many open questions remain regarding how carbon-cycle dynamics influence Earth's climate sensitivity to astronomical climate forcing. To provide insight into the interaction between the carbon cycle and astronomical insolation forcing, we built a benthic carbon isotope (∂13Cbenthic) megasplice for the last 35 Ma, employing the same technique used to build the ∂18Obenthic megasplice. The ∂13Cbenthic megasplice exhibits a strong imprint of the 405 and 100-kyr eccentricity cycles throughout the last 35 Ma. This is intriguing, as the oxygen isotope megasplice looses its eccentricity imprint after the mid-Miocene climatic transition (MMCT; see Fig. 1 in De Vleeschouwer et al., 2017). In other words, the carbon cycle responded completely differently to astronomical forcing, compared to global climate during the late Miocene. We visualize this difference in response by the application of a Gaussian process, which renders the dependence of one variable (here ∂18Obenthic or ∂13Cbenthic) in a multidimensional space (here precession, obliquity and eccentricity). Together, the ∂13Cbenthic and ∂18Obenthic megasplices thus provide a unique tool for paleoclimatology, allowing for the quantification and visualization of the changing paleoclimate and carbon-cycle response to astronomical forcing throughout geologic time. References De Vleeschouwer, D., Vahlenkamp, M., Crucifix, M., Pälike, H., 2017. Alternating Southern and Northern Hemisphere climate response to astronomical forcing during the past 35 m

  15. What is the Time Scale for Orbital Forcing of the Martian Water Cycle?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hecht, M. H.

    2003-01-01

    Calculation of the periodic variations in the martian orbital parameters by Ward and subsequent refinements to the theory have inspired numerous models of variation of the martian water cycle. Most of these models have focused on variations in planetary obliquity on a both a short-term (110 kyr) time scale as well as larger oscillations occuring over millions of years. To a lesser extent, variations in planetary eccentricity have also been considered. The third and fastest mode of variation, the precession of the longitude of perihelion, has generally been deemphasized because, among the three parameters, it is the only one that does not change the integrated annual insolation. But as a result of this precession, the asymmetry in peak summer insolation between the poles exceeds 50%, with the maximum cycling between poles every 25.5 kyrs. The relative contribution of these different elements to orbital forcing of climate takes on particular importance in the context of apparently recent waterrelated features such as gullies or polar layered deposits (PLD). Christensen, for example, recently indentified mantling of heavily gullied crater walls as residual dust-covered snow deposits that were responsible for the formation of the gullies in a previous epoch. Christensen assumed that the snow was originally deposited at a period of high obliquity which was stabilized against sublimation by a lag deposit of dust. It is suggested here that not obliquity, but the shortterm oscillations associated with precession of the perihelion may play the dominant role in the formation of gullies, major strata in the polar layered deposits (PLD), and other water-related features.

  16. Orbital evolution of a test particle around a black hole: indirect determination of the self-force in the post-Newtonian approximation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Burko, Lior M

    2006-01-01

    Comparing the corrections to Kepler's law with orbital evolution under a self-force, we extract the finite, already regularized part of the latter in a specific gauge. We apply this method to a quasi-circular orbit around a Schwarzschild black hole of an extreme mass ratio binary, and determine the first- and second-order conservative gravitational self-force in a post-Newtonian expansion. We use these results in the construction of the gravitational waveform, and revisit the question of the relative contribution of the self-force and spin-orbit coupling

  17. The contribution of China's emissions to global climate forcing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Bengang; Gasser, Thomas; Ciais, Philippe; Piao, Shilong; Tao, Shu; Balkanski, Yves; Hauglustaine, Didier; Boisier, Juan-Pablo; Chen, Zhuo; Huang, Mengtian; Li, Laurent Zhaoxin; Li, Yue; Liu, Hongyan; Liu, Junfeng; Peng, Shushi; Shen, Zehao; Sun, Zhenzhong; Wang, Rong; Wang, Tao; Yin, Guodong; Yin, Yi; Zeng, Hui; Zeng, Zhenzhong; Zhou, Feng

    2016-03-17

    Knowledge of the contribution that individual countries have made to global radiative forcing is important to the implementation of the agreement on "common but differentiated responsibilities" reached by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Over the past three decades, China has experienced rapid economic development, accompanied by increased emission of greenhouse gases, ozone precursors and aerosols, but the magnitude of the associated radiative forcing has remained unclear. Here we use a global coupled biogeochemistry-climate model and a chemistry and transport model to quantify China's present-day contribution to global radiative forcing due to well-mixed greenhouse gases, short-lived atmospheric climate forcers and land-use-induced regional surface albedo changes. We find that China contributes 10% ± 4% of the current global radiative forcing. China's relative contribution to the positive (warming) component of global radiative forcing, mainly induced by well-mixed greenhouse gases and black carbon aerosols, is 12% ± 2%. Its relative contribution to the negative (cooling) component is 15% ± 6%, dominated by the effect of sulfate and nitrate aerosols. China's strongest contributions are 0.16 ± 0.02 watts per square metre for CO2 from fossil fuel burning, 0.13 ± 0.05 watts per square metre for CH4, -0.11 ± 0.05 watts per square metre for sulfate aerosols, and 0.09 ± 0.06 watts per square metre for black carbon aerosols. China's eventual goal of improving air quality will result in changes in radiative forcing in the coming years: a reduction of sulfur dioxide emissions would drive a faster future warming, unless offset by larger reductions of radiative forcing from well-mixed greenhouse gases and black carbon.

  18. Relativistic equation of the orbit of a particle in a arbitrary central force field

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aaron, Francisc D.

    2005-01-01

    The equation of the orbit of a relativistic particle moving in an arbitrary central force field is derived. Straightforward generalizations of well-known first and second order differential equations are given. It is pointed out that the relativistic equation of the orbit has the same form as in the non-relativistic case, the only changes consisting in the appearance of additional terms proportional to 1/c 2 in both potential and total energies. (author)

  19. African climate and vegetation at the roots of humankind during the Pliocene

    Science.gov (United States)

    Contoux, Camille; Ramstein, Gilles; Banks, Will; Sepulchre, Pierre; Schuster, Mathieu; Zhang, Zhongshi

    2017-04-01

    This study is devoted to the intricate links between climate, vegetation and hominin population distribution during Pliocene, during which peculiar combinations of climate and vegetation conditions have favored the development of hominin species. The aridification of North Africa from the Late Oligocene to the Tortonian has been recently linked to the Tethys shrinkage and associated changes in monsoon patterns. Since the Tortonian the response to orbital forcing has drastically increased accompanied by the onset of the Sahara desert [Zhang et al , Nature 2014] . Therefore, the context of the emergence and development of hominins is marked by a succession of wet and dry periods driven by orbital forcing factors. We focus here on the Pliocene period during which fossils have been discovered West and East of the African Rift (in the Chad basin and Rift Valley respectively). In order to better understand the climate and vegetation relationships during this period allowing populations to live both West and East of the Rift, we simulated the climate of the Pliocene for different orbital configurations with the coupled model IPSL-CM5A (OAGCM). We then use these simulated climates to carry out an equilibrium vegetation model, BIOME4, for 4 different orbital configurations with high eccentricity. We found that australopithecines occur in areas were primary productivity and precipitation are low, suggesting they were adapted to semi-arid environments.

  20. Climate forcing and desert malaria: the effect of irrigation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baeza, Andres; Bouma, Menno J; Dobson, Andy P; Dhiman, Ramesh; Srivastava, Harish C; Pascual, Mercedes

    2011-07-14

    Rainfall variability and associated remote sensing indices for vegetation are central to the development of early warning systems for epidemic malaria in arid regions. The considerable change in land-use practices resulting from increasing irrigation in recent decades raises important questions on concomitant change in malaria dynamics and its coupling to climate forcing. Here, the consequences of irrigation level for malaria epidemics are addressed with extensive time series data for confirmed Plasmodium falciparum monthly cases, spanning over two decades for five districts in north-west India. The work specifically focuses on the response of malaria epidemics to rainfall forcing and how this response is affected by increasing irrigation. Remote sensing data for the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) are used as an integrated measure of rainfall to examine correlation maps within the districts and at regional scales. The analyses specifically address whether irrigation has decreased the coupling between malaria incidence and climate variability, and whether this reflects (1) a breakdown of NDVI as a useful indicator of risk, (2) a weakening of rainfall forcing and a concomitant decrease in epidemic risk, or (3) an increase in the control of malaria transmission. The predictive power of NDVI is compared against that of rainfall, using simple linear models and wavelet analysis to study the association of NDVI and malaria variability in the time and in the frequency domain respectively. The results show that irrigation dampens the influence of climate forcing on the magnitude and frequency of malaria epidemics and, therefore, reduces their predictability. At low irrigation levels, this decoupling reflects a breakdown of local but not regional NDVI as an indicator of rainfall forcing. At higher levels of irrigation, the weakened role of climate variability may be compounded by increased levels of control; nevertheless this leads to no significant decrease

  1. A piecewise-integration method for simulating the influence of external forcing on climate

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Zhifu Zhang; Chongjian Qiu; Chenghai Wang

    2008-01-01

    Climate drift occurs in most general circulation models (GCMs) as a result of incomplete physical and numerical representation of the complex climate system,which may cause large uncertainty in sensitivity experiments evaluating climate response to changes in external forcing.To solve this problem,we propose a piecewise-integration method to reduce the systematic error in climate sensitivity studies.The observations are firstly assimilated into a numerical model by using the dynamic relaxation technique to relax to the current state of atmosphere,and then the assimilated fields are continuously used to reinitialize the simulation to reduce the error of climate simulation.When the numerical model is integrated with changed external forcing,the results can be split into two parts,background and perturbation fields,and the background is the state before the external forcing is changed.The piecewise-integration method is used to continuously reinitialize the model with the assimilated field,instead of the background.Therefore,the simulation error of the model with the external forcing can be reduced.In this way,the accuracy of climate sensitivity experiments is greatly improved.Tests with a simple low-order spectral model show that this approach can significantly reduce the uncertainty of climate sensitivity experiments.

  2. Do responses to different anthropogenic forcings add linearly in climate models?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marvel, Kate; Schmidt, Gavin A; LeGrande, Allegra N; Nazarenko, Larissa; Shindell, Drew; Bonfils, Céline; Tsigaridis, Kostas

    2015-01-01

    Many detection and attribution and pattern scaling studies assume that the global climate response to multiple forcings is additive: that the response over the historical period is statistically indistinguishable from the sum of the responses to individual forcings. Here, we use the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) and National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate System Model (CCSM4) simulations from the CMIP5 archive to test this assumption for multi-year trends in global-average, annual-average temperature and precipitation at multiple timescales. We find that responses in models forced by pre-computed aerosol and ozone concentrations are generally additive across forcings. However, we demonstrate that there are significant nonlinearities in precipitation responses to different forcings in a configuration of the GISS model that interactively computes these concentrations from precursor emissions. We attribute these to differences in ozone forcing arising from interactions between forcing agents. Our results suggest that attribution to specific forcings may be complicated in a model with fully interactive chemistry and may provide motivation for other modeling groups to conduct further single-forcing experiments. (letter)

  3. Historical and idealized climate model experiments: an EMIC intercomparison

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Eby, M.; Weaver, A. J.; Alexander, K.

    2012-01-01

    Both historical and idealized climate model experiments are performed with a variety of Earth System Models of Intermediate Complexity (EMICs) as part of a community contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report. Historical simulations start at 850 CE......, are used to assess the contributions of different climate forcings to the overall climate and carbon cycle response. The response of surface air temperature is the linear sum of the individual forcings, while the carbon cycle response shows considerable synergy between land-use change and CO2... and continue through to 2005. The standard simulations include changes in forcing from solar luminosity, Earth's orbital configuration, CO2, additional greenhouse gases, land-use, and sulphate and volcanic aerosols. In spite of very different modelled pre-industrial global surface air temperatures...

  4. Improved treatment of global positioning system force parameters in precise orbit determination applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vigue, Y.; Lichten, S. M.; Muellerschoen, R. J.; Blewitt, G.; Heflin, M. B.

    1993-01-01

    Data collected from a worldwide 1992 experiment were processed at JPL to determine precise orbits for the satellites of the Global Positioning System (GPS). A filtering technique was tested to improve modeling of solar-radiation pressure force parameters for GPS satellites. The new approach improves orbit quality for eclipsing satellites by a factor of two, with typical results in the 25- to 50-cm range. The resultant GPS-based estimates for geocentric coordinates of the tracking sites, which include the three DSN sites, are accurate to 2 to 8 cm, roughly equivalent to 3 to 10 nrad of angular measure.

  5. Future Climate Forcings and Olive Yield in a Mediterranean Orchard

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francesco Viola

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available The olive tree is one of the most characteristic rainfed trees in the Mediterranean region. Observed and forecasted climate modifications in this region, such as the CO2 concentration and temperature increase and the net radiation, rainfall and wind speed decrease, will likely alter vegetation water stress and modify productivity. In order to simulate how climatic change could alter soil moisture dynamic, biomass growth and fruit productivity, a water-driven crop model has been used in this study. The numerical model, previously calibrated on an olive orchard located in Sicily (Italy with a satisfactory reproduction of historical olive yield data, has been forced with future climate scenarios generated using a stochastic weather generator and a downscaling procedure of an ensemble of climate model outputs. The stochastic downscaling is carried out using simulations of some General Circulation Models adopted in the fourth Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC assessment report (4AR for future scenarios. The outcomes state that climatic forcings driving potential evapotranspiration compensate for each other, resulting in a slight increase of this water demand flux; moreover, the increase of CO2 concentration leads to a potential assimilation increase and, consequently, to an overall productivity increase in spite of the growth of water stress due to the rainfall reduction.

  6. The contribution of China’s emissions to global climate forcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Bengang; Gasser, Thomas; Ciais, Philippe; Piao, Shilong; Tao, Shu; Balkanski, Yves; Hauglustaine, Didier; Boisier, Juan-Pablo; Chen, Zhuo; Huang, Mengtian; Li, Laurent Zhaoxin; Li, Yue; Liu, Hongyan; Liu, Junfeng; Peng, Shushi; Shen, Zehao; Sun, Zhenzhong; Wang, Rong; Wang, Tao; Yin, Guodong; Yin, Yi; Zeng, Hui; Zeng, Zhenzhong; Zhou, Feng

    2016-03-01

    Knowledge of the contribution that individual countries have made to global radiative forcing is important to the implementation of the agreement on “common but differentiated responsibilities” reached by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Over the past three decades, China has experienced rapid economic development, accompanied by increased emission of greenhouse gases, ozone precursors and aerosols, but the magnitude of the associated radiative forcing has remained unclear. Here we use a global coupled biogeochemistry-climate model and a chemistry and transport model to quantify China’s present-day contribution to global radiative forcing due to well-mixed greenhouse gases, short-lived atmospheric climate forcers and land-use-induced regional surface albedo changes. We find that China contributes 10% ± 4% of the current global radiative forcing. China’s relative contribution to the positive (warming) component of global radiative forcing, mainly induced by well-mixed greenhouse gases and black carbon aerosols, is 12% ± 2%. Its relative contribution to the negative (cooling) component is 15% ± 6%, dominated by the effect of sulfate and nitrate aerosols. China’s strongest contributions are 0.16 ± 0.02 watts per square metre for CO2 from fossil fuel burning, 0.13 ± 0.05 watts per square metre for CH4, -0.11 ± 0.05 watts per square metre for sulfate aerosols, and 0.09 ± 0.06 watts per square metre for black carbon aerosols. China’s eventual goal of improving air quality will result in changes in radiative forcing in the coming years: a reduction of sulfur dioxide emissions would drive a faster future warming, unless offset by larger reductions of radiative forcing from well-mixed greenhouse gases and black carbon.

  7. Modeling Climate Responses to Spectral Solar Forcing on Centennial and Decadal Time Scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wen, G.; Cahalan, R.; Rind, D.; Jonas, J.; Pilewskie, P.; Harder, J.

    2012-01-01

    We report a series of experiments to explore clima responses to two types of solar spectral forcing on decadal and centennial time scales - one based on prior reconstructions, and another implied by recent observations from the SORCE (Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment) SIM (Spectral 1rradiance Monitor). We apply these forcings to the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) Global/Middle Atmosphere Model (GCMAM). that couples atmosphere with ocean, and has a model top near the mesopause, allowing us to examine the full response to the two solar forcing scenarios. We show different climate responses to the two solar forCing scenarios on decadal time scales and also trends on centennial time scales. Differences between solar maximum and solar minimum conditions are highlighted, including impacts of the time lagged reSponse of the lower atmosphere and ocean. This contrasts with studies that assume separate equilibrium conditions at solar maximum and minimum. We discuss model feedback mechanisms involved in the solar forced climate variations.

  8. Hybrid insolation forcing of Pliocene monsoon dynamics in West Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. R. Kuechler

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The Pliocene is regarded as a potential analogue for future climate with conditions generally warmer-than-today and higher-than-preindustrial atmospheric CO2 levels. Here we present the first orbitally resolved records of continental hydrology and vegetation changes from West Africa for two Pliocene time intervals (5.0–4.6 Ma, 3.6–3.0 Ma, which we compare with records from the last glacial cycle (Kuechler et al., 2013. Our results indicate that changes in local insolation alone are insufficient to explain the full degree of hydrologic variations. Generally two modes of interacting insolation forcings are observed: during eccentricity maxima, when precession was strong, the West African monsoon was driven by summer insolation; during eccentricity minima, when precession-driven variations in local insolation were minimal, obliquity-driven changes in the summer latitudinal insolation gradient became dominant. This hybrid monsoonal forcing concept explains orbitally controlled tropical climate changes, incorporating the forcing mechanism of latitudinal gradients for the Pliocene, which probably increased in importance during subsequent Northern Hemisphere glaciations.

  9. Statistical U-Th dating results of speleothem from south Europe and the orbital-scale implication

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, H. M.

    2016-12-01

    Reconstructing of hydroclimate in the Mediterranean on an orbital time scale helps improve our understanding of interaction between orbital forcing and north hemisphere climate. We collected 180 speleothem subsamples from Observatoire Cave (Monaco), Prince Cave (south France), Chateaueuf Cave (South France), Arago Cave (South France), and Basura Cave (North Italy) during 2013 to 2015 C.E. Uranium-thorium dating were conducted in the High-Precision Mass Spectrometry and Environment Change Laboratory (HISPEC), National Taiwan University. The results show that most of the speleothem formed during interglacial periods, particularly in marine isotope stage (MIS) 1, 5, and 11. However, only a few speleothem were dated between 180 to 250 thousand years ago (ka). The interval is approximately equivalent to MIS 7, which is a period with contrasting orbital parameters compared to MIS1, 5, and 11. Our statistical dating result implies that the orbital-scale humid/dry condition in southern Europe could be dominantly controlled by orbital forcing.

  10. Expert judgments about transient climate response to alternative future trajectories of radiative forcing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zickfeld, Kirsten; Morgan, M Granger; Frame, David J; Keith, David W

    2010-07-13

    There is uncertainty about the response of the climate system to future trajectories of radiative forcing. To quantify this uncertainty we conducted face-to-face interviews with 14 leading climate scientists, using formal methods of expert elicitation. We structured the interviews around three scenarios of radiative forcing stabilizing at different levels. All experts ranked "cloud radiative feedbacks" as contributing most to their uncertainty about future global mean temperature change, irrespective of the specified level of radiative forcing. The experts disagreed about the relative contribution of other physical processes to their uncertainty about future temperature change. For a forcing trajectory that stabilized at 7 Wm(-2) in 2200, 13 of the 14 experts judged the probability that the climate system would undergo, or be irrevocably committed to, a "basic state change" as > or =0.5. The width and median values of the probability distributions elicited from the different experts for future global mean temperature change under the specified forcing trajectories vary considerably. Even for a moderate increase in forcing by the year 2050, the medians of the elicited distributions of temperature change relative to 2000 range from 0.8-1.8 degrees C, and some of the interquartile ranges do not overlap. Ten of the 14 experts estimated that the probability that equilibrium climate sensitivity exceeds 4.5 degrees C is > 0.17, our interpretation of the upper limit of the "likely" range given by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Finally, most experts anticipated that over the next 20 years research will be able to achieve only modest reductions in their degree of uncertainty.

  11. Climate Forcing Datasets for Agricultural Modeling: Merged Products for Gap-Filling and Historical Climate Series Estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruane, Alex C.; Goldberg, Richard; Chryssanthacopoulos, James

    2014-01-01

    The AgMERRA and AgCFSR climate forcing datasets provide daily, high-resolution, continuous, meteorological series over the 1980-2010 period designed for applications examining the agricultural impacts of climate variability and climate change. These datasets combine daily resolution data from retrospective analyses (the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, MERRA, and the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis, CFSR) with in situ and remotely-sensed observational datasets for temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation, leading to substantial reductions in bias in comparison to a network of 2324 agricultural-region stations from the Hadley Integrated Surface Dataset (HadISD). Results compare favorably against the original reanalyses as well as the leading climate forcing datasets (Princeton, WFD, WFD-EI, and GRASP), and AgMERRA distinguishes itself with substantially improved representation of daily precipitation distributions and extreme events owing to its use of the MERRA-Land dataset. These datasets also peg relative humidity to the maximum temperature time of day, allowing for more accurate representation of the diurnal cycle of near-surface moisture in agricultural models. AgMERRA and AgCFSR enable a number of ongoing investigations in the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) and related research networks, and may be used to fill gaps in historical observations as well as a basis for the generation of future climate scenarios.

  12. The Effect of Orbital Configuration on the Possible Climates and Habitability of Kepler-62f.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shields, Aomawa L; Barnes, Rory; Agol, Eric; Charnay, Benjamin; Bitz, Cecilia; Meadows, Victoria S

    2016-06-01

    As lower-mass stars often host multiple rocky planets, gravitational interactions among planets can have significant effects on climate and habitability over long timescales. Here we explore a specific case, Kepler-62f (Borucki et al., 2013 ), a potentially habitable planet in a five-planet system with a K2V host star. N-body integrations reveal the stable range of initial eccentricities for Kepler-62f is 0.00 ≤ e ≤ 0.32, absent the effect of additional, undetected planets. We simulate the tidal evolution of Kepler-62f in this range and find that, for certain assumptions, the planet can be locked in a synchronous rotation state. Simulations using the 3-D Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (LMD) Generic global climate model (GCM) indicate that the surface habitability of this planet is sensitive to orbital configuration. With 3 bar of CO2 in its atmosphere, we find that Kepler-62f would only be warm enough for surface liquid water at the upper limit of this eccentricity range, providing it has a high planetary obliquity (between 60° and 90°). A climate similar to that of modern-day Earth is possible for the entire range of stable eccentricities if atmospheric CO2 is increased to 5 bar levels. In a low-CO2 case (Earth-like levels), simulations with version 4 of the Community Climate System Model (CCSM4) GCM and LMD Generic GCM indicate that increases in planetary obliquity and orbital eccentricity coupled with an orbital configuration that places the summer solstice at or near pericenter permit regions of the planet with above-freezing surface temperatures. This may melt ice sheets formed during colder seasons. If Kepler-62f is synchronously rotating and has an ocean, CO2 levels above 3 bar would be required to distribute enough heat to the nightside of the planet to avoid atmospheric freeze-out and permit a large enough region of open water at the planet's substellar point to remain stable. Overall, we find multiple plausible combinations of

  13. Effects of tensor forces in nuclear spin–orbit splittings from ab initio calculations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shihang Shen

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available A systematic and specific pattern due to the effects of the tensor forces is found in the evolution of spin–orbit splittings in neutron drops. This result is obtained from relativistic Brueckner–Hartree–Fock theory using the bare nucleon–nucleon interaction. It forms an important guide for future microscopic derivations of relativistic and nonrelativistic nuclear energy density functionals.

  14. Glacial forcing of central Indonesian hydroclimate since 60,000 y B.P.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Russell, James M; Vogel, Hendrik; Konecky, Bronwen L; Bijaksana, Satria; Huang, Yongsong; Melles, Martin; Wattrus, Nigel; Costa, Kassandra; King, John W

    2014-04-08

    The Indo-Pacific warm pool houses the largest zone of deep atmospheric convection on Earth and plays a critical role in global climate variations. Despite the region's importance, changes in Indo-Pacific hydroclimate on orbital timescales remain poorly constrained. Here we present high-resolution geochemical records of surface runoff and vegetation from sediment cores from Lake Towuti, on the island of Sulawesi in central Indonesia, that continuously span the past 60,000 y. We show that wet conditions and rainforest ecosystems on Sulawesi present during marine isotope stage 3 (MIS3) and the Holocene were interrupted by severe drying between ∼33,000 and 16,000 y B.P. when Northern Hemisphere ice sheets expanded and global temperatures cooled. Our record reveals little direct influence of precessional orbital forcing on regional climate, and the similarity between MIS3 and Holocene climates observed in Lake Towuti suggests that exposure of the Sunda Shelf has a weaker influence on regional hydroclimate and terrestrial ecosystems than suggested previously. We infer that hydrological variability in this part of Indonesia varies strongly in response to high-latitude climate forcing, likely through reorganizations of the monsoons and the position of the intertropical convergence zone. These findings suggest an important role for the tropical western Pacific in amplifying glacial-interglacial climate variability.

  15. The orbital record in stratigraphy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fischer, Alfred G.

    1992-01-01

    Orbital signals are being discovered in pre-Pleistocene sediments. Due to their hierarchical nature these cycle patterns are complex, and the imprecision of geochronology generally makes the assignment of stratigraphic cycles to specific orbital cycles uncertain, but in sequences such as the limnic Newark Group under study by Olsen and pelagic Cretaceous sequence worked on by our Italo-American group the relative frequencies yield a definitive match to the Milankovitch hierarchy. Due to the multiple ways in which climate impinges on depositional systems, the orbital signals are recorded in a multiplicity of parameters, and affect different sedimentary facies in different ways. In platform carbonates, for example, the chief effect is via sea-level variations (possibly tied to fluctuating ice volume), resulting in cycles of emergence and submergence. In limnic systems it finds its most dramatic expression in alternations of lake and playa conditions. Biogenic pelagic oozes such as chalks and the limestones derived from them display variations in the carbonate supplied by planktonic organisms such as coccolithophores and foraminifera, and also record variations in the aeration of bottom waters. Whereas early studies of stratigraphic cyclicity relied mainly on bedding variations visible in the field, present studies are supplementing these with instrumental scans of geochemical, paleontological, and geophysical parameters which yield quantitative curves amenable to time-series analysis; such analysis is, however, limited by problems of distorted time-scales. My own work has been largely concentrated on pelagic systems. In these, the sensitivity of pelagic organisms to climatic-oceanic changes, combined with the sensitivity of botton life to changes in oxygen availability (commonly much more restricted in the Past than now) has left cyclic patterns related to orbital forcing. These systems are further attractive because (1) they tend to offer depositional continuity

  16. Improved attribution of climate forcing to emissions by pollutant and sector

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shindell, D. T.

    2009-12-01

    Evaluating multi-component climate change mitigation strategies requires knowledge of the diverse direct and indirect effects of emissions. Methane, ozone and aerosols are linked through atmospheric chemistry so that emissions of a single pollutant can affect several species. I will show new calculations of atmospheric composition changes, radiative forcing, and the global warming potential (GWP) for increased emissions of tropospheric ozone and aerosol precursors in a coupled composition-climate model. The results demonstrate that gas-aerosol interactions substantially alter the relative importance of the various emissions, suggesting revisions to the GWPs used in international carbon trading. Additionally, I will present results showing how the net climate impact of particular activities depends strongly upon non-CO2 forcing agents for some sectors. These results will be highlighted by discussing the interplay between air quality emissions controls and climate for the case of emissions from coal-fired power plants. The changing balance between CO2 and air quality pollutants from coal plants may have contributed to the 20th century spatial and temporal patterns of climate change, and is likely to continue to do so as more and more plants are constructed in Asia.

  17. Forcing of Climate Variations by Mev-gev Particles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tinsley, Brian A.

    1990-01-01

    Changes in ionization production in the lower stratosphere by a few percent during Forbush decreases have been shown to correlate well with changes in winter tropospheric dynamics by a similar relatively small amount. Changes in ionization production by tens of percent on the decadal time scale have been shown to be correlated with changes in winter storm frequencies by tens of percent in the western North Atlantic. Changes in total solar irradiance or solar UV do not have time variations to match the tropospheric variations on the day to day time scales discussed here. Forcing related to magnetic activity is not supported. Thus solar wind/MeV-GeV particle changes appear to be the only viable forcing function for these day to day variations. If solar wind/particle forcing of a few percent amplitude can produce short term weather responses, then observed changes by tens of percent on the decadal and centennial time scale could produce climate changes on these longer time scales. The changes in circulation involved would produce regional climate changes, as observed. At present the relations between stratospheric ionization, electric fields and chemistry and aerosol and cloud microphysics are as poorly known as the relations between the latter and storm feedback processes. However, the capability for investigating these relationships now exists and has recently been most successfully used for elucidating the stratospheric chemistry and cloud microphysics associated with the Antarctic ozone hole. The economic benefits of being able to predict winter severity on an interannual basis, and the extent to which climate change related to solar variability will add to or substract from the greenhouse effect, should be more than adequate to justify support for research in this area.

  18. Non-Kyoto radiative forcing in long-run greenhouse gas emissions and climate change scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rose, S.K.; Kriegler, E.; Bibas, R.; Calvin, K.; Popp, A.; van Vuuren, D.P.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/11522016X; Weyant, J.

    2014-01-01

    Climate policies must consider radiative forcing from Kyoto greenhouse gases, as well as other forcing constituents, such as aerosols and tropospheric ozone that result from air pollutants. Non-Kyoto forcing constituents contribute negative, as well as positive forcing, and overall increases in

  19. Radiative forcing in the ACCMIP historical and future climate simulations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. T. Shindell

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available The Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP examined the short-lived drivers of climate change in current climate models. Here we evaluate the 10 ACCMIP models that included aerosols, 8 of which also participated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5. The models reproduce present-day total aerosol optical depth (AOD relatively well, though many are biased low. Contributions from individual aerosol components are quite different, however, and most models underestimate east Asian AOD. The models capture most 1980–2000 AOD trends well, but underpredict increases over the Yellow/Eastern Sea. They strongly underestimate absorbing AOD in many regions. We examine both the direct radiative forcing (RF and the forcing including rapid adjustments (effective radiative forcing; ERF, including direct and indirect effects. The models' all-sky 1850 to 2000 global mean annual average total aerosol RF is (mean; range −0.26 W m−2; −0.06 to −0.49 W m−2. Screening based on model skill in capturing observed AOD yields a best estimate of −0.42 W m−2; −0.33 to −0.50 W m−2, including adjustment for missing aerosol components in some models. Many ACCMIP and CMIP5 models appear to produce substantially smaller aerosol RF than this best estimate. Climate feedbacks contribute substantially (35 to −58% to modeled historical aerosol RF. The 1850 to 2000 aerosol ERF is −1.17 W m−2; −0.71 to −1.44 W m−2. Thus adjustments, including clouds, typically cause greater forcing than direct RF. Despite this, the multi-model spread relative to the mean is typically the same for ERF as it is for RF, or even smaller, over areas with substantial forcing. The largest 1850 to 2000 negative aerosol RF and ERF values are over and near Europe, south and east Asia and North America. ERF, however, is positive over the Sahara, the Karakoram, high Southern latitudes and especially the Arctic. Global aerosol RF

  20. Radiative forcing in the ACCMIP historical and future climate simulations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shindell, D. T.; Lamarque, J. -F.; Schulz, M.; Flanner, M.; Jiao, C.; Chin, M.; Young, P. J.; Lee, Y. H.; Rotstayn, L.; Mahowald, N.; Milly, G.; Faluvegi, G.; Balkanski, Y.; Collins, W. J.; Conley, A. J.; Dalsoren, S.; Easter, R.; Ghan, S.; Horowitz, L.; Liu, X.; Myhre, G.; Nagashima, T.; Naik, V.; Rumbold, S. T.; Skeie, R.; Sudo, K.; Szopa, S.; Takemura, T.; Voulgarakis, A.; Yoon, J. -H.; Lo, F.

    2013-01-01

    The Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP) examined the short-lived drivers of climate change in current climate models. Here we evaluate the 10 ACCMIP models that included aerosols, 8 of which also participated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). The models reproduce present-day total aerosol optical depth (AOD) relatively well, though many are biased low. Contributions from individual aerosol components are quite different, however, and most models underestimate east Asian AOD. The models capture most 1980-2000 AOD trends well, but underpredict increases over the Yellow/Eastern Sea. They strongly underestimate absorbing AOD in many regions. We examine both the direct radiative forcing (RF) and the forcing including rapid adjustments (effective radiative forcing; ERF, including direct and indirect effects). The models’ all-sky 1850 to 2000 global mean annual average total aerosol RF is (mean; range) -0.26Wm-2-2. Screening based on model skill in capturing observed AOD yields a best estimate of -0.42Wm-2-2Climate feedbacks contribute substantially (35 to -58 %) to modeled historical aerosol RF. The 1850 to 2000 aerosol ERF is -1.17Wm-2-2forcing than direct RF. Despite this, the multi-model spread relative to the mean is typically the same for ERF as it is for RF, or even smaller, over areas with substantial forcing. The largest 1850 to 2000 negative aerosol RF and ERF values are over and near Europe, south and east Asia and North America. ERF, however, is positive over the Sahara, the Karakoram, high Southern latitudes and especially the Arctic. Global

  1. Response of a comprehensive climate model to a broad range of external forcings: relevance for deep ocean ventilation and the development of late Cenozoic ice ages

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galbraith, Eric; de Lavergne, Casimir

    2018-03-01

    Over the past few million years, the Earth descended from the relatively warm and stable climate of the Pliocene into the increasingly dramatic ice age cycles of the Pleistocene. The influences of orbital forcing and atmospheric CO2 on land-based ice sheets have long been considered as the key drivers of the ice ages, but less attention has been paid to their direct influences on the circulation of the deep ocean. Here we provide a broad view on the influences of CO2, orbital forcing and ice sheet size according to a comprehensive Earth system model, by integrating the model to equilibrium under 40 different combinations of the three external forcings. We find that the volume contribution of Antarctic (AABW) vs. North Atlantic (NADW) waters to the deep ocean varies widely among the simulations, and can be predicted from the difference between the surface densities at AABW and NADW deep water formation sites. Minima of both the AABW-NADW density difference and the AABW volume occur near interglacial CO2 (270-400 ppm). At low CO2, abundant formation and northward export of sea ice in the Southern Ocean contributes to very salty and dense Antarctic waters that dominate the global deep ocean. Furthermore, when the Earth is cold, low obliquity (i.e. a reduced tilt of Earth's rotational axis) enhances the Antarctic water volume by expanding sea ice further. At high CO2, AABW dominance is favoured due to relatively warm subpolar North Atlantic waters, with more dependence on precession. Meanwhile, a large Laurentide ice sheet steers atmospheric circulation as to strengthen the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, but cools the Southern Ocean remotely, enhancing Antarctic sea ice export and leading to very salty and expanded AABW. Together, these results suggest that a `sweet spot' of low CO2, low obliquity and relatively small ice sheets would have poised the AMOC for interruption, promoting Dansgaard-Oeschger-type abrupt change. The deep ocean temperature and

  2. Modeling Past Abrupt Climate Changes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Marchionne, Arianna

    of the orbital variations on Earth's climate; however, the knowledge and tools needed to complete a unied theory for ice ages have not been developed yet. Here, we focus on the climatic variations that have occurred over the last few million years. Paleoclimatic records show that the glacial cycles are linked...... to those present in the astronomical forcing. We shall do this in terms of a general framework of conceptual dynamical models, which may or may not exhibit internal self-sustained oscillations. We introduce and discuss two distinct mechanisms for a periodic response at a dierent period to a periodic...

  3. Radiative Forcing in the ACCMIP Historical and Future Climate Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shindell, Drew Todd; Lamarque, J.-F.; Schulz, M.; Flanner, M.; Jiao, C.; Chin, M.; Young, P. J.; Lee, Y. H.; Rotstayn, L.; Mahowald, N.; hide

    2013-01-01

    A primary goal of the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model IntercomparisonProject (ACCMIP) was to characterize the short-lived drivers of preindustrial to 2100climate change in the current generation of climate models. Here we evaluate historicaland 5 future radiative forcing in the 10 ACCMIP models that included aerosols, 8 of whichalso participated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5).The models generally reproduce present-day climatological total aerosol opticaldepth (AOD) relatively well. components to this total, however, and most appear to underestimate AOD over East10 Asia. The models generally capture 1980-2000 AOD trends fairly well, though theyunderpredict AOD increases over the YellowEastern Sea. They appear to strongly underestimate absorbing AOD, especially in East Asia, South and Southeast Asia, SouthAmerica and Southern Hemisphere Africa.We examined both the conventional direct radiative forcing at the tropopause (RF) and the forcing including rapid adjustments (adjusted forcing AF, including direct andindirect effects). The models calculated all aerosol all-sky 1850 to 2000 global meanannual average RF ranges from 0.06 to 0.49 W m(sup -2), with a mean of 0.26 W m(sup -2) and a median of 0.27 W m(sup -2. Adjusting for missing aerosol components in some modelsbrings the range to 0.12 to 0.62W m(sup -2), with a mean of 0.39W m(sup -2). Screen20ing the models based on their ability to capture spatial patterns and magnitudes ofAOD and AOD trends yields a quality-controlled mean of 0.42W m(sup -2) and range of0.33 to 0.50 W m(sup -2) (accounting for missing components). The CMIP5 subset of ACCMIPmodels spans 0.06 to 0.49W m(sup -2), suggesting some CMIP5 simulations likelyhave too little aerosol RF. A substantial, but not well quantified, contribution to histori25cal aerosol RF may come from climate feedbacks (35 to 58). The mean aerosol AF during this period is 1.12W m(sup -2) (median value 1.16W m(sup -2), range 0.72 to1.44W m

  4. Recent advances in understanding secondary organic aerosol: Implications for global climate forcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shrivastava, Manish; Cappa, Christopher D.; Fan, Jiwen; Goldstein, Allen H.; Guenther, Alex B.; Jimenez, Jose L.; Kuang, Chongai; Laskin, Alexander; Martin, Scot T.; Ng, Nga Lee; Petaja, Tuukka; Pierce, Jeffrey R.; Rasch, Philip J.; Roldin, Pontus; Seinfeld, John H.; Shilling, John; Smith, James N.; Thornton, Joel A.; Volkamer, Rainer; Wang, Jian; Worsnop, Douglas R.; Zaveri, Rahul A.; Zelenyuk, Alla; Zhang, Qi

    2017-06-01

    Anthropogenic emissions and land use changes have modified atmospheric aerosol concentrations and size distributions over time. Understanding preindustrial conditions and changes in organic aerosol due to anthropogenic activities is important because these features (1) influence estimates of aerosol radiative forcing and (2) can confound estimates of the historical response of climate to increases in greenhouse gases. Secondary organic aerosol (SOA), formed in the atmosphere by oxidation of organic gases, represents a major fraction of global submicron-sized atmospheric organic aerosol. Over the past decade, significant advances in understanding SOA properties and formation mechanisms have occurred through measurements, yet current climate models typically do not comprehensively include all important processes. This review summarizes some of the important developments during the past decade in understanding SOA formation. We highlight the importance of some processes that influence the growth of SOA particles to sizes relevant for clouds and radiative forcing, including formation of extremely low volatility organics in the gas phase, acid-catalyzed multiphase chemistry of isoprene epoxydiols, particle-phase oligomerization, and physical properties such as volatility and viscosity. Several SOA processes highlighted in this review are complex and interdependent and have nonlinear effects on the properties, formation, and evolution of SOA. Current global models neglect this complexity and nonlinearity and thus are less likely to accurately predict the climate forcing of SOA and project future climate sensitivity to greenhouse gases. Efforts are also needed to rank the most influential processes and nonlinear process-related interactions, so that these processes can be accurately represented in atmospheric chemistry-climate models.

  5. The importance of precessional signals in the tropical climate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Clement, A C [Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, University of Miami, 4600 Rickenbacker Causeway, Miami, FL 33149 (United States); Hall, A [UCLA, 7955 Math Sciences Building, 405 Hilgard Ave., Box 951565, Los Angeles, CA 90095 (United States); Broccoli, A J [Rutgers University, 14 College Farm Road, New Brunswick, NJ 08901-8551 (United States)

    2004-04-01

    Past research on the climate response to orbital forcing has emphasized the glacial-interglacial variations in global ice volume, global-mean temperature, and the global hydrologic cycle. This emphasis may be inappropriate in the tropics, where the response to precessional forcing is likely to be somewhat independent of the glacial-interglacial variations, particularly in variables relating to the hydrologic cycle. To illustrate this point, we use an atmospheric general circulation model coupled to a slab ocean model, performing experiments that quantify the tropical climate's response to (1) opposite phases of precessional forcing, and (2) Last Glacial Maximum boundary conditions. While the glacially-forced tropical temperature changes are typically more than an order of magnitude larger than those arising from precessional forcing, the hydrologic signals stemming from the two forcings are comparable in magnitude. The mechanisms behind these signals are investigated and shown to be quite distinct for the precessional and glacial forcing. Because of strong dynamical linkages in the tropics, the model results illustrate the impossibility of predicting the local hydrologic response to external forcing without understanding the response at much larger spatial scales. Examples from the paleoclimate record are presented as additional evidence for the importance of precessional signals in past variations of the tropical climate. (orig.)

  6. Differences in the efficacy of climate forcings explained by variations in atmospheric boundary layer depth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davy, Richard; Esau, Igor

    2016-05-25

    The Earth has warmed in the last century and a large component of that warming has been attributed to increased anthropogenic greenhouse gases. There are also numerous processes that introduce strong, regionalized variations to the overall warming trend. However, the ability of a forcing to change the surface air temperature depends on its spatial and temporal distribution. Here we show that the efficacy of a forcing is determined by the effective heat capacity of the atmosphere, which in cold and dry climates is defined by the depth of the planetary boundary layer. This can vary by an order of magnitude on different temporal and spatial scales, and so we get a strongly amplified temperature response in shallow boundary layers. This must be accounted for to assess the efficacy of a climate forcing, and also implies that multiple climate forcings cannot be linearly combined to determine the temperature response.

  7. Orbital forcing on marine organic and carbonate production in the Indo-Pacific during the last 1.7 Myrs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beaufort, L.; Bolton, C. T.; Mazur, J. C.; Gally, Y.

    2017-12-01

    The Western Pacific Warm Pool (WPWP) is a place of intense energy storage and redistribution … It is climatically relatively stable with, for example, little seasonality in sea surface temperature (SST). However, significant changes occur in the vertical structure of the upper ocean related to El Nino Southern Oscillation dynamics. These changes significantly impact the phytoplankton communities that are adapted to specific conditions in different layers of the photic zone, and are precisely recorded in the sediments by microfossils such as those produced by coccolithophores. Core MD97-2540 was retrieved on the Eauripik rise in the WPWP and covers, in 37 metres, a time interval spanning the last 1.7 million years (Myrs). Two samples were prepared (settling slide) every 5 cm. The entire coccolith assemblage was counted and identified automatically in each sample using the software SYRACO. Morphometric characteristics (length, thickness, mass…) were measured on every coccolith. Primary productivity (PP) was estimated using a transfer function based on the percentage of the species Florisphaera profunda. Changes in mass (M) of the dominant coccolithophore group, the Noelarhabdaceae (including Emilianiaand Gephyrocapsa), were studied. We also estimated the coccolithophore carbonate export production (CCEP). Those 3 parameters (PP, M and CCEP) show a significant imprint of precession and eccentricity of the Earth's orbit. In contrast to SST and planktic foraminiferal oxygen isotopes measured on the same samples, the coccolithophore parameters exhibit significant 400 kyr cyclicity, and the 100 kyr cycle is present prior to its appearance in the SST and oxygen isotope records 0.9 Myrs ago. This indicates direct forcing by insolation and seasonality on the WPWP, independent of global climatic variations. A discussion of the relationship between the Indian Monsoon and ENSO on orbital and longer timescales is enabled via comparisons with PP and CCEP measured at a similar

  8. Relevance of land forcings and feedbacks in the attribution of climate extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seneviratne, S. I.; Davin, E.; Greve, P.; Gudmundsson, L.; Hauser, M.; Hirschi, M.; Mueller, B.; Orlowsky, B.; Orth, R.

    2014-12-01

    Land forcings and feedbacks play an important role in the climate system, in particular for the occurrence of climate extremes. Recent investigations have for instance highlighted the impacts of soil moisture-climate interactions for the development of droughts and heat waves (e.g. Seneviratne et al. 2012, Mueller and Seneviratne 2012, Seneviratne et al. 2013, Orlowsky and Seneviratne 2013). In addition, forcing from land use and land cover changes through modified albedo or turbulent fluxes can also affect the temperature variability in summer (Davin et al. 2014). These effects are important for better understanding the relationships between climate forcing and regional climate changes, and appear relevant for a recent discrepancy between trends in global mean temperature vs hot extremes over land (Seneviratne et al. 2014). This presentation will provide an overview on the underlying processes and on possible approaches for their consideration in attribution research. References:- Davin, E.L., S.I. Seneviratne, P. Ciais, A. Olioso, T. Wang, 2014: Preferential cooling of hot extremes from cropland albedo management. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci., Published ahead of print June 23, 2014.- Mueller, B., and S.I. Seneviratne, 2012: Hot days induced by precipitation deficits at the global scale. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 109 (31), 12398-12403, doi: 10.1073/pnas.1204330109.- Orlowsky, B., and S.I. Seneviratne, 2013: Elusive drought: Uncertainty in observed trends and short- and long-term CMIP5 projections. Hydr. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1765-1781, doi:10.5194/hess-17-1765-2013- Seneviratne, S.I., N. Nicholls, et al., 2012: Changes in climate extremes and their impacts on the natural physical environment. In: Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation [Field, C.B., et al. (eds.)]. A Special Report of Working Groups I and II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, pp. 109-230.- Seneviratne, S.I., et al

  9. Mars Recent Climate Change Workshop

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haberle, Robert M.; Owen, Sandra J.

    2012-11-01

    mobilize and redistribute volatile reservoirs both on and below the surface. And for Mars, these variations are large. In the past 20 My, for example, the obliquity is believed to have varied from a low of 15° to a high of 45° with a regular oscillation time scale of ~10^5 years. These variations are typically less than two degrees on the Earth. Mars, therefore, offers a natural laboratory for the study of orbitally induced climate change on a terrestrial planet. Finally, general circulation models (GCMs) for Mars have reached a level of sophistication that justifies their application to the study of spin axis/orbitally forced climate change. With recent advances in computer technology the models can run at reasonable spatial resolution for many Mars years with physics packages that include cloud microphysics, radiative transfer in scattering/absorbing atmospheres, surface heat budgets, boundary layer schemes, and a host of other processes. To be sure, the models will undergo continual improvement, but with carefully designed experiments they can now provide insights into mechanisms of climate change in the recent past. Thus, the geologic record is better preserved, the forcing function is large, and GCMs have become useful tools. While research efforts in each of these areas have progressed considerably over the past several decades, they have proceeded mostly on independent paths occasionally leading to conflicting ideas. To remedy this situation and accelerate progress in the area, the NASA/Ames Research Center's Mars General Circulation Modeling Group hosted a 3-day workshop on May 15-17, 2012 that brought together the geological and atmospheric science communities to collectively discuss the evidence for recent climate change on Mars, the nature of the change required, and how that change could be brought about. Over 50 researchers, students, and post-docs from the US, Canada, Europe, and Japan attended the meeting. The program and abstracts from the workshop are

  10. Historical and idealized climate model experiments: an EMIC intercomparison

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Eby, M.; Weaver, A. J.; Alexander, K.

    2012-01-01

    Both historical and idealized climate model experiments are performed with a variety of Earth System Models of Intermediate Complexity (EMICs) as part of a community contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report. Historical simulations start at 850 CE...... and continue through to 2005. The standard simulations include changes in forcing from solar luminosity, Earth's orbital configuration, CO2, additional greenhouse gases, land-use, and sulphate and volcanic aerosols. In spite of very different modelled pre-industrial global surface air temperatures...... the Medieval Climate Anomaly and the Little Ice Age estimated from paleoclimate reconstructions. This in turn could be a result of errors in the reconstructions of volcanic and/or solar radiative forcing used to drive the models or the incomplete representation of certain processes or variability within...

  11. Force on an electric/magnetic dipole and classical approach to spin-orbit coupling in hydrogen-like atoms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kholmetskii, A. L.; Missevitch, O. V.; Yarman, T.

    2017-09-01

    We carry out the classical analysis of spin-orbit coupling in hydrogen-like atoms, using the modern expressions for the force and energy of an electric/magnetic dipole in an electromagnetic field. We disclose a novel physical meaning of this effect and show that for a laboratory observer the energy of spin-orbit interaction is represented solely by the mechanical energy of the spinning electron (considered as a gyroscope) due to the Thomas precession of its spin. Concurrently we disclose some errors in the old and new publications on this subject.

  12. CO2 forcing induces semi-direct effects with consequences for climate feedback interpretations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrews, Timothy; Forster, Piers M.

    2008-02-01

    Climate forcing and feedbacks are diagnosed from seven slab-ocean GCMs for 2 × CO2 using a regression method. Results are compared to those using conventional methodologies to derive a semi-direct forcing due to tropospheric adjustment, analogous to the semi-direct effect of absorbing aerosols. All models show a cloud semi-direct effect, indicating a rapid cloud response to CO2; cloud typically decreases, enhancing the warming. Similarly there is evidence of semi-direct effects from water-vapour, lapse-rate, ice and snow. Previous estimates of climate feedbacks are unlikely to have taken these semi-direct effects into account and so misinterpret processes as feedbacks that depend only on the forcing, but not the global surface temperature. We show that the actual cloud feedback is smaller than what previous methods suggest and that a significant part of the cloud response and the large spread between previous model estimates of cloud feedback is due to the semi-direct forcing.

  13. Impact of climate forcing uncertainty and human water use on global and continental water balance components

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Müller Schmied

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available The assessment of water balance components using global hydrological models is subject to climate forcing uncertainty as well as to an increasing intensity of human water use within the 20th century. The uncertainty of five state-of-the-art climate forcings and the resulting range of cell runoff that is simulated by the global hydrological model WaterGAP is presented. On the global land surface, about 62 % of precipitation evapotranspires, whereas 38 % discharges into oceans and inland sinks. During 1971–2000, evapotranspiration due to human water use amounted to almost 1 % of precipitation, while this anthropogenic water flow increased by a factor of approximately 5 between 1901 and 2010. Deviation of estimated global discharge from the ensemble mean due to climate forcing uncertainty is approximately 4 %. Precipitation uncertainty is the most important reason for the uncertainty of discharge and evapotranspiration, followed by shortwave downward radiation. At continental levels, deviations of water balance components due to uncertain climate forcing are higher, with the highest discharge deviations occurring for river discharge in Africa (−6 to 11 % from the ensemble mean. Uncertain climate forcings also affect the estimation of irrigation water use and thus the estimated human impact of river discharge. The uncertainty range of global irrigation water consumption amounts to approximately 50 % of the global sum of water consumption in the other water use sector.

  14. On multi-fingerprint detection and attribution of greenhouse gas- and aerosol forced climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hegerl, G C [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Meteorologie, Hamburg (Germany); Hasselmann, K [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Meteorologie, Hamburg (Germany); Cubasch, U [Deutsches Klimarechenzentrum (DKRZ), Hamburg (Germany); Mitchell, J F.B. [Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, Bracknell (United Kingdom). Meteorological Office; Roeckner, E [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Meteorologie, Hamburg (Germany); Voss, R [Deutsches Klimarechenzentrum (DKRZ), Hamburg (Germany); Waszkewitz, J [Deutsches Klimarechenzentrum (DKRZ), Hamburg (Germany)

    1996-07-01

    A multi-fingerprint analysis is applied to the detection and attribution of anthropogenic climate change. While a single fingerprint, as applied in a previous paper by Hegerl et al. (1996), is optimal for detecting a significant climate change, the simultaneous use of several fingerprints allows one to investigate additionally the consistency between observations and model predicted climate change signals for competing candidate forcing mechanisms. Thus the multi-fingerprint method is a particularly useful technique for attributing an observed climate change to a proposed cause. Different model-predicted climate change signals are derived from three global warming simulations for the period 1880 to 2049. In one simulation, the forcing was by greenhouse gases only, while in the remaining two simulations the influence of aerosols was also included. The two dominant climate change signals derived from these simulations are optimized statistically by weighting the model-predicted climate change pattern towards low-noise directions. These optimized fingerprints are then applied to observed near surface temperature trends. The space-time structure of natural climate variability (needed to determine the signal-to-noise ratio) is estimated from several multi-century control simulations with different CGCMs and from instrumental data over the last 134 years. (orig.)

  15. Effect of Electrodynamic Forces on the Attitude Stabilization of a Satellite in Ecliptic orbits

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abdel-Aziz, Yehia

    This work is based on the previous paper of the author [1]. The present paper is devoted to the investigation of the attitude dynamics of an ecliptic satellite moving in the magnetic field of the Earth. Eelectrodynamic forces result from the motion of a charged satelite relative to the magnetic field of the Earth. The torque due to electrodynamic effect of the Lorentz forces on the attitude stabilization of the satellite is studied with the detailed model of the Earth's magnetic field. A method for estimating the stable and unstable regions of the equilibrium positions based on Euler's equation is also discussed. The results show that Lorentz forces can affect the stablization of the satellite, in particular for highly eccentric orbits and also for large satellte. [1] Abdel-Aziz, Y. A. Attitude Stabilization of a Rigid Spacecraft in the Geomagnetic Field. AdSpR 40, 18-24, 2007.

  16. Sub-Saharan Northern African climate at the end of the twenty-first century: forcing factors and climate change processes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Patricola, C.M. [Cornell University, Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Ithaca, NY (United States); Texas A and M University, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, College Station, TX (United States); Cook, K.H. [The University of Texas at Austin, Department of Geological Sciences, Jackson School of Geosciences, Austin, TX (United States)

    2011-09-15

    A regional climate model, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model, is forced with increased atmospheric CO{sub 2} and anomalous SSTs and lateral boundary conditions derived from nine coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models to produce an ensemble set of nine future climate simulations for northern Africa at the end of the twenty-first century. A well validated control simulation, agreement among ensemble members, and a physical understanding of the future climate change enhance confidence in the predictions. The regional model ensembles produce consistent precipitation projections over much of northern tropical Africa. A moisture budget analysis is used to identify the circulation changes that support future precipitation anomalies. The projected midsummer drought over the Guinean Coast region is related partly to weakened monsoon flow. Since the rainfall maximum demonstrates a southward bias in the control simulation in July-August, this may be indicative of future summer drying over the Sahel. Wetter conditions in late summer over the Sahel are associated with enhanced moisture transport by the West African westerly jet, a strengthening of the jet itself, and moisture transport from the Mediterranean. Severe drought in East Africa during August and September is accompanied by a weakened Indian monsoon and Somali jet. Simulations with projected and idealized SST forcing suggest that overall SST warming in part supports this regional model ensemble agreement, although changes in SST gradients are important over West Africa in spring and fall. Simulations which isolate the role of individual climate forcings suggest that the spatial distribution of the rainfall predictions is controlled by the anomalous SST and lateral boundary conditions, while CO{sub 2} forcing within the regional model domain plays an important secondary role and generally produces wetter conditions. (orig.)

  17. A Force Sensorless Method for CFRP/Ti Stack Interface Detection during Robotic Orbital Drilling Operations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qiang Fang

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Drilling carbon fiber reinforced plastics and titanium (CFRP/Ti stacks is one of the most important activities in aircraft assembly. It is favorable to use different drilling parameters for each layer due to their dissimilar machining properties. However, large aircraft parts with changing profiles lead to variation of thickness along the profiles, which makes it challenging to adapt the cutting parameters for different materials being drilled. This paper proposes a force sensorless method based on cutting force observer for monitoring the thrust force and identifying the drilling material during the drilling process. The cutting force observer, which is the combination of an adaptive disturbance observer and friction force model, is used to estimate the thrust force. An in-process algorithm is developed to monitor the variation of the thrust force for detecting the stack interface between the CFRP and titanium materials. Robotic orbital drilling experiments have been conducted on CFRP/Ti stacks. The estimate error of the cutting force observer was less than 13%, and the stack interface was detected in 0.25 s (or 0.05 mm before or after the tool transited it. The results show that the proposed method can successfully detect the CFRP/Ti stack interface for the cutting parameters adaptation.

  18. North American Monsoon Response to Eemian Climate Forcings and its Effect on Rocky Mountain Forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Insel, N.; Berkelhammer, M. B.

    2017-12-01

    The key to recognizing and predicting future changes in regional climate and ecosystems lies in understanding the causes and characteristics of paleovariations. The Last Interglacial (LIG: 130-116 ka) is the most recent period in Earth history when temperatures are believed to have exceeded those of today. In this study, we are focusing on the response of the North American monsoon (NAM) to shifts in orbital forcings during LIG. In particular, we are using regional climate model (RegCM) simulations under LIG (115ka, 125 ka and 135 ka) and modern forcings to evaluate changes in the strength, timing, duration, and amount of moisture transported from different sources during the NAM season. Understanding these variations is critical to forecast seasonal supply of water to the southwestern U.S. under current warming conditions. In addition, cellulose extracted stable isotopes from Rocky Mountain Eemian wood samples provides both a tool to diagnose the model simulations and to evaluate the response of western U.S. tree species to changes in temperature and moisture availability. Our preliminary results indicate enhanced summer precipitation, wind shifts and changes in NAM characteristics in response to increased Northern Hemisphere insolation. The following features were observed: (1) The NAM strengthens and extends slightly more northward during the Eemian due to a shift in upper-level divergence. (2) The onset and duration of the NAM seems to be similar between modern and Eemian simulations. (3) Consistent with modern observations, simulations suggest a western NAM region in Arizona that receives most of its monsoonal moisture from the Gulf of California, while the eastern NAM region in New Mexico obtains most of its summer rains from the Gulf of Mexico. In the Eemian, we see a spatial shift from more depleted to more enriched source waters throughout the monsoon season. These changes in the summer climate are confirmed by the tree ring isotope data, which show a

  19. Environment and Climate of Early Human Evolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levin, Naomi E.

    2015-05-01

    Evaluating the relationships between climate, the environment, and human traits is a key part of human origins research because changes in Earth's atmosphere, oceans, landscapes, and ecosystems over the past 10 Myr shaped the selection pressures experienced by early humans. In Africa, these relationships have been influenced by a combination of high-latitude ice distributions, sea surface temperatures, and low-latitude orbital forcing that resulted in large oscillations in vegetation and moisture availability that were modulated by local basin dynamics. The importance of both climate and tectonics in shaping African landscapes means that integrated views of the ecological, environmental, and tectonic histories of a region are necessary in order to understand the relationships between climate and human evolution.

  20. Decadal- to Orbital-Scale Links Between Climate, Productivity and Denitrification on the Peru Margin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Higginson, M. J.; Altabet, M. A.; Herbert, T. D.

    2002-12-01

    Denitrification is the predominant global loss term for combined nitrogen and can exert a major control on its oceanic inventory, global productivity and atmospheric CO2. Our prior work demonstrates that proxy records for changing denitrification, oxygenation and productivity in the recent geological past in the Arabian Sea exhibit unprecedented similarity with abrupt climate fluctuations recorded in high-latitude ice-cores. Since the Peru Margin and Arabian Sea together constitute almost two-thirds of global marine water-column denitrification, changes in concert in these two regions could potentially have effected rapid global climate changes through an oceanic mechanism. The Peru Margin is intimately coupled to the Equatorial Pacific, source of El Ni&ño-La Niña SST, productivity and precipitation anomalies. Here, biogeochemical cycles are especially sensitive to abrupt climatic changes on decadal time-scales by virtue of this ENSO coupling. The purpose of our research is to investigate whether longer changes in tropical Pacific oceanography represent a 'scaling up' of anomalous ENSO conditions, modulated by both internal (e.g. nutrient inventory or WPWP heat budget) and external (e.g. orbital) forcing throughout the last glacial/inter-glacial cycle. Here we present first results of a detailed investigation of recently-recovered sediments from ODP Site 1228 on the Peru margin upper continental slope, in an attempt to capture some of the essential aspects of ENSO-like variability. Despite the existing availability of high quality sediment cores from this margin, little detailed paleoclimatic information currently exists because of poor sedimentary carbonate preservation (exacerbated post-recovery) which has limited generation of essential chronostratigraphic controls. Instead, we rely on the development and novel application of compound-specific AMS dating verified and supplemented by intermittent foraminiferal and bulk-carbon AMS dates, a magnetic paleo

  1. Evaluating climatic response to external radiative forcing during the late Miocene to early Pliocene: New perspectives from eastern equatorial Pacific (IODP U1338) and North Atlantic (ODP 982) locations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drury, Anna Joy; John, Cédric M.; Shevenell, Amelia E.

    2016-01-01

    Orbital-scale climate variability during the latest Miocene-early Pliocene is poorly understood due to a lack of high-resolution records spanning 8.0-3.5 Ma, which resolve all orbital cycles. Assessing this variability improves understanding of how Earth's system sensitivity to insolation evolves and provides insight into the factors driving the Messinian Salinity Crisis (MSC) and the Late Miocene Carbon Isotope Shift (LMCIS). New high-resolution benthic foraminiferal Cibicidoides mundulus δ18O and δ13C records from equatorial Pacific International Ocean Drilling Program Site U1338 are correlated to North Atlantic Ocean Drilling Program Site 982 to obtain a global perspective. Four long-term benthic δ18O variations are identified: the Tortonian-Messinian, Miocene-Pliocene, and Early-Pliocene Oxygen Isotope Lows (8-7, 5.9-4.9, and 4.8-3.5 Ma) and the Messinian Oxygen Isotope High (MOH; 7-5.9 Ma). Obliquity-paced variability dominates throughout, except during the MOH. Eleven new orbital-scale isotopic stages are identified between 7.4 and 7.1 Ma. Cryosphere and carbon cycle sensitivities, estimated from δ18O and δ13C variability, suggest a weak cryosphere-carbon cycle coupling. The MSC termination coincided with moderate cryosphere sensitivity and reduced global ice sheets. The LMCIS coincided with reduced carbon cycle sensitivity, suggesting a driving force independent of insolation changes. The response of the cryosphere and carbon cycle to obliquity forcing is established, defined as Earth System Response (ESR). Observations reveal that two late Miocene-early Pliocene climate states existed. The first is a prevailing dynamic state with moderate ESR and obliquity-driven Antarctic ice variations, associated with reduced global ice volumes. The second is a stable state, which occurred during the MOH, with reduced ESR and lower obliquity-driven variability, associated with expanded global ice volumes.

  2. Gravitational self-force correction to the innermost stable circular equatorial orbit of a Kerr black hole.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Isoyama, Soichiro; Barack, Leor; Dolan, Sam R; Le Tiec, Alexandre; Nakano, Hiroyuki; Shah, Abhay G; Tanaka, Takahiro; Warburton, Niels

    2014-10-17

    For a self-gravitating particle of mass μ in orbit around a Kerr black hole of mass M ≫ μ, we compute the O(μ/M) shift in the frequency of the innermost stable circular equatorial orbit due to the conservative piece of the gravitational self-force acting on the particle. Our treatment is based on a Hamiltonian formulation of the dynamics in terms of geodesic motion in a certain locally defined effective smooth spacetime. We recover the same result using the so-called first law of binary black-hole mechanics. We give numerical results for the innermost stable circular equatorial orbit frequency shift as a function of the black hole's spin amplitude, and compare with predictions based on the post-Newtonian approximation and the effective one-body model. Our results provide an accurate strong-field benchmark for spin effects in the general-relativistic two-body problem.

  3. Coupling the nongravitational forces and modified Newton dynamics for cometary orbits

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maquet, Lucie; Pierret, Frédéric

    2015-04-01

    In recent work [L. Blanchet and J. Novak, Mon. Not. R. Astron. Soc. 412, 2530 (2011); L. Blanchet and J. Novak, Testing MOND in the Solar System (2011); and M. Milgrom, Mon. Not. R. Astron. Soc. 399, 474 (2009)], the authors showed that modified Newton dynamics (MOND) has a non-negligible secular perturbation effect on planets with large semimajor axes (gaseous planets) in the Solar System. Some comets also have a very eccentric orbit with a large semimajor axis (Halley family comets) going far away from the Sun (more than 15 AU) in a low acceleration regime where they would be subject to MOND perturbation. They also approach the Sun very closely (less than 3 AU) and are affected by the sublimation of ices from their nucleus, triggering so-called nongravitational forces. The main goal of this paper is to investigate the effect of MOND perturbation on three comets with various orbital elements (2 P /Encke , 1 P /Halley and 153 P /Ikeya-Zhang ) and then compare it to the nongravitational perturbations. It is motivated by the fact that when fitting an outgassing model for a comet, we have to take into account all of the small perturbing effects to avoid absorbing these effects into the nongravitational parameters. Otherwise, we could derive a completely wrong estimation of the outgassing. For this work, we use six different forms of MOND functions and compute the secular variations of the orbital elements due to MOND and nongravitational perturbations. We show that, for comets with large semimajor axis, the MONDian effects are not negligible compared to the nongravitational perturbations.

  4. Organic condensation - a vital link connecting aerosol formation to climate forcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Riipinen, I.; Pierce, J. R.; Yli-Juuti, T.; Nieminen, T.; Häkkinen, S.; Ehn, M.; Junninen, H.; Lehtipalo, K.; Petäjä, T.; Slowik, J.; Chang, R.; Shantz, N. C.; Abbatt, J.; Leaitch, W. R.; Kerminen, V.-M.; Worsnop, D. R.; Pandis, S. N.; Donahue, N. M.; Kulmala, M.

    2011-01-01

    Atmospheric aerosol particles influence global climate as well as impair air quality through their effects on atmospheric visibility and human health. Ultrafine (<100 nm) particles often dominate aerosol numbers, and nucleation of atmospheric vapors is an important source of these particles. To have climatic relevance, however, the freshly-nucleated particles need to grow in size. We combine observations from two continental sites (Egbert, Canada and Hyytiälä, Finland) to show that condensation of organic vapors is a crucial factor governing the lifetimes and climatic importance of the smallest atmospheric particles. We demonstrate that state-of-the-science organic gas-particle partitioning models fail to reproduce the observations, and propose a modeling approach that is consistent with the measurements. We demonstrate the large sensitivity of climatic forcing of atmospheric aerosols to these interactions between organic vapors and the smallest atmospheric nanoparticles - highlighting the need for representing this process in global climate models.

  5. Astronomically Forced Hydrology of the Late Cretaceous Sub-tropical Potosí Basin, Bolivia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tasistro-Hart, A.; Maloof, A. C.; Schoene, B.; Eddy, M. P.

    2017-12-01

    Orbital forcings paced the ice ages of the Pleistocene, demonstrating that periodic variations in the latitudinal distribution of insolation amplified by ice-albedo feedbacks can guide global climate. How these forcings operate in the hot-houses that span most of the planet's history, however, is unknown. The lacustrine El Molino formation of the late Cretaceous-early Paleogene Potosí Basin in present-day Bolivia contains carbonate-mud parasequences that record fluctuating hydrological conditions from 73 to 63 Ma. This study presents the first cyclostratigraphic analysis using high-resolution drone-derived imagery and 3D elevation models, combined with conventional stratigraphic measurements and magnetic susceptibility data. The drone-derived data are integrated over the entire outcrop at two field areas using a novel application of stratigraphic potential field modeling that increases signal-to-noise ratios prior to spectral analysis. We demonstrate that these parasequences exhibit significant periodicities consistent with eccentricity (400 and 100 kyr), obliquity (50 kyr, 40 kyr, and 29 kyr), precession (17-23 kyr), and semi-precession (9-11 kyr). New U-Pb ID-TIMS zircon ages from intercalacted ash beds corroborate the interpreted sedimentation rates at two sites, indicating that the Potosí Basin contains evidence for hot-house astronomical forcing of sub-tropical lacustrine hydrology. Global climate simulations of late Cretaceous orbital end-member configurations demonstrate precessional-eccentricity and obliquity driven modulation of basin hydrology. In model simulations, the forcings drive long-term shifts in the location of the intertropical convergence zone, changing precipitation along the northern extent of the Potosí Basin's catchment area. This study is the first to demonstrate orbital forcing of a lacustrine system during the Maastrichtian and could ultimately contribute to a precise age for the Cretaceous-Paleogene boundary.

  6. Late-Middle Quaternary lithostratigraphy and sedimentation patterns on the Alpha Ridge, central Arctic Ocean: Implications for Arctic climate variability on orbital time scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Rujian; Polyak, Leonid; Xiao, Wenshen; Wu, Li; Zhang, Taoliang; Sun, Yechen; Xu, Xiaomei

    2018-02-01

    We use sediment cores collected by the Chinese National Arctic Research Expeditions from the Alpha Ridge to advance Quaternary stratigraphy and paleoceanographic reconstructions for the Arctic Ocean. Our cores show a good litho/biostratigraphic correlation to sedimentary records developed earlier for the central Arctic Ocean, suggesting a recovered stratigraphic range of ca. 0.6 Ma, suitable for paleoclimatic studies on orbital time scales. This stratigraphy was tested by correlating the stacked Alpha Ridge record of bulk XRF manganese, calcium and zirconium (Mn, Ca, Zr), to global stable-isotope (LR04-δ18O) and sea-level stacks and tuning to orbital parameters. Correlation results corroborate the applicability of presumed climate/sea-level controlled Mn variations in the Arctic Ocean for orbital tuning. This approach enables better understanding of the global and orbital controls on the Arctic climate. Orbital tuning experiments for our records indicate strong eccentricity (100-kyr) and precession (∼20-kyr) controls on the Arctic Ocean, probably implemented via glaciations and sea ice. Provenance proxies like Ca and Zr are shown to be unsuitable as orbital tuning tools, but useful as indicators of glacial/deglacial processes and circulation patterns in the Arctic Ocean. Their variations suggest an overall long-term persistence of the Beaufort Gyre circulation in the Alpha Ridge region. Some glacial intervals, e.g., MIS 6 and 4/3, are predominated by material presumably transported by the Transpolar Drift. These circulation shifts likely indicate major changes in the Arctic climatic regime, which yet need to be investigated. Overall, our results demonstrate applicability of XRF data to paleoclimatic studies of the Arctic Ocean.

  7. Modeling glacial climates

    Science.gov (United States)

    North, G. R.; Crowley, T. J.

    1984-01-01

    Mathematical climate modelling has matured as a discipline to the point that it is useful in paleoclimatology. As an example a new two dimensional energy balance model is described and applied to several problems of current interest. The model includes the seasonal cycle and the detailed land-sea geographical distribution. By examining the changes in the seasonal cycle when external perturbations are forced upon the climate system it is possible to construct hypotheses about the origin of midlatitude ice sheets and polar ice caps. In particular the model predicts a rather sudden potential for glaciation over large areas when the Earth's orbital elements are only slightly altered. Similarly, the drift of continents or the change of atmospheric carbon dioxide over geological time induces radical changes in continental ice cover. With the advance of computer technology and improved understanding of the individual components of the climate system, these ideas will be tested in far more realistic models in the near future.

  8. Timing and climate forcing of volcanic eruptions for the past 2,500 years.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sigl, M; Winstrup, M; McConnell, J R; Welten, K C; Plunkett, G; Ludlow, F; Büntgen, U; Caffee, M; Chellman, N; Dahl-Jensen, D; Fischer, H; Kipfstuhl, S; Kostick, C; Maselli, O J; Mekhaldi, F; Mulvaney, R; Muscheler, R; Pasteris, D R; Pilcher, J R; Salzer, M; Schüpbach, S; Steffensen, J P; Vinther, B M; Woodruff, T E

    2015-07-30

    Volcanic eruptions contribute to climate variability, but quantifying these contributions has been limited by inconsistencies in the timing of atmospheric volcanic aerosol loading determined from ice cores and subsequent cooling from climate proxies such as tree rings. Here we resolve these inconsistencies and show that large eruptions in the tropics and high latitudes were primary drivers of interannual-to-decadal temperature variability in the Northern Hemisphere during the past 2,500 years. Our results are based on new records of atmospheric aerosol loading developed from high-resolution, multi-parameter measurements from an array of Greenland and Antarctic ice cores as well as distinctive age markers to constrain chronologies. Overall, cooling was proportional to the magnitude of volcanic forcing and persisted for up to ten years after some of the largest eruptive episodes. Our revised timescale more firmly implicates volcanic eruptions as catalysts in the major sixth-century pandemics, famines, and socioeconomic disruptions in Eurasia and Mesoamerica while allowing multi-millennium quantification of climate response to volcanic forcing.

  9. Attribution of soil moisture dynamics - Initial conditions vs. atmospheric forcing and the role of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orth, Rene; Seneviratne, Sonia I.

    2014-05-01

    The world's climate has started to change more quickly in recent decades and a stronger and faster shift is expected in the future. Even if the public perception is mostly limited to a widespread warming, climate change is a complex phenomenon impacting numerous variables of the climate system in different ways, also depending on time and location. Furthermore, extreme events may change more drastically than the mean climate. There is growing evidence that climate change is mostly man-made. However, it is still a matter of debate to which extent changes of the mean climate but also of particular (extreme) events are due to human impact. These questions are addressed by the growing science of climate attribution. Pointing out the anthropogenic influence on extreme events such as the 2010 Russian heatwave or the 2002 floods in Central Europe may help to support adaptation to climate change. This study investigates soil moisture in Europe in the context of climate change, because of its role as a key variable of the land-climate system and its practical importance for instance to agriculture. To derive soil moisture dynamics from 1984-2007 we use E-OBS forcing data together with SRB radiation data and employ an observation-based approach where soil moisture is computed from a water balance equation in which runoff (normalized with precipitation) and ET (normalized with net radiation) are simple functions of soil moisture. The constant runoff function is prescribed for the whole continent, and the ET function is calibrated using temperature data. After performing a validation of the inferred soil moisture data we use it in order to analyze changes in the likelihood of droughts. Our results show increased drought risk especially in north-eastern Europe and the Mediterranean, whereby the probability of extreme droughts increases stronger as for mild dryness episodes. To assess the potential for drought forecasting we furthermore study the importance of the initial

  10. Regional aerosol emissions and temperature response: Local and remote climate impacts of regional aerosol forcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lewinschal, Anna; Ekman, Annica; Hansson, Hans-Christen

    2017-04-01

    Emissions of anthropogenic aerosols vary substantially over the globe and the short atmospheric residence time of aerosols leads to a highly uneven radiative forcing distribution, both spatially and temporally. Regional aerosol radiative forcing can, nevertheless, exert a large influence on the temperature field away from the forcing region through changes in heat transport or the atmospheric or ocean circulation. Moreover, the global temperature response distribution to aerosol forcing may vary depending on the geographical location of the forcing. In other words, the climate sensitivity in one region can vary depending on the location of the forcing. The surface temperature distribution response to changes in sulphate aerosol forcing caused by sulphur dioxide (SO2) emission perturbations in four different regions is investigated using the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM). The four regions, Europe, North America, East and South Asia, are all regions with historically high aerosol emissions and are relevant from both an air-quality and climate policy perspective. All emission perturbations are defined relative to the year 2000 emissions provided for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5. The global mean temperature change per unit SO2 emission change is similar for all four regions for similar magnitudes of emissions changes. However, the global temperature change per unit SO2 emission in simulations where regional SO2 emission were removed is substantially higher than that obtained in simulations where regional SO2 emissions were increased. Thus, the climate sensitivity to regional SO2 emissions perturbations depends on the magnitude of the emission perturbation in NorESM. On regional scale, on the other hand, the emission perturbations in different geographical locations lead to different regional temperature responses, both locally and in remote regions. The results from the model simulations are used to construct regional temperature potential

  11. Monsoonal response to mid-holocene orbital forcing in a high resolution GCM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. H. C. Bosmans

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available In this study, we use a sophisticated high-resolution atmosphere-ocean coupled climate model, EC-Earth, to investigate the effect of Mid-Holocene orbital forcing on summer monsoons on both hemispheres. During the Mid-Holocene (6 ka, there was more summer insolation on the Northern Hemisphere than today, which intensified the meridional temperature and pressure gradients. Over North Africa, monsoonal precipitation is intensified through increased landward monsoon winds and moisture advection as well as decreased moisture convergence over the oceans and more convergence over land compared to the pre-industrial simulation. Precipitation also extends further north as the ITCZ shifts northward in response to the stronger poleward gradient of insolation. This increase and poleward extent is stronger than in most previous ocean-atmosphere GCM simulations. In north-westernmost Africa, precipitation extends up to 35° N. Over tropical Africa, internal feedbacks completely overcome the direct warming effect of increased insolation. We also find a weakened African Easterly Jet. Over Asia, monsoonal precipitation during the Mid-Holocene is increased as well, but the response is different than over North-Africa. There is more convection over land at the expense of convection over the ocean, but precipitation does not extend further northward, monsoon winds over the ocean are weaker and the surrounding ocean does not provide more moisture. On the Southern Hemisphere, summer insolation and the poleward insolation gradient were weaker during the Mid-Holocene, resulting in a reduced South American monsoon through decreased monsoon winds and less convection, as well as an equatorward shift in the ITCZ. This study corroborates the findings of paleodata research as well as previous model studies, while giving a more detailed account of Mid-Holocene monsoons.

  12. Late Pleistocene climate drivers of early human migration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Timmermann, Axel; Friedrich, Tobias

    2016-10-01

    On the basis of fossil and archaeological data it has been hypothesized that the exodus of Homo sapiens out of Africa and into Eurasia between ~50-120 thousand years ago occurred in several orbitally paced migration episodes. Crossing vegetated pluvial corridors from northeastern Africa into the Arabian Peninsula and the Levant and expanding further into Eurasia, Australia and the Americas, early H. sapiens experienced massive time-varying climate and sea level conditions on a variety of timescales. Hitherto it has remained difficult to quantify the effect of glacial- and millennial-scale climate variability on early human dispersal and evolution. Here we present results from a numerical human dispersal model, which is forced by spatiotemporal estimates of climate and sea level changes over the past 125 thousand years. The model simulates the overall dispersal of H. sapiens in close agreement with archaeological and fossil data and features prominent glacial migration waves across the Arabian Peninsula and the Levant region around 106-94, 89-73, 59-47 and 45-29 thousand years ago. The findings document that orbital-scale global climate swings played a key role in shaping Late Pleistocene global population distributions, whereas millennial-scale abrupt climate changes, associated with Dansgaard-Oeschger events, had a more limited regional effect.

  13. The Coupled Orbit-Attitude Dynamics and Control of Electric Sail in Displaced Solar Orbits

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mingying Huo

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Displaced solar orbits for spacecraft propelled by electric sails are investigated. Since the propulsive thrust is induced by the sail attitude, the orbital and attitude dynamics of electric-sail-based spacecraft are coupled and required to be investigated together. However, the coupled dynamics and control of electric sails have not been discussed in most published literatures. In this paper, the equilibrium point of the coupled dynamical system in displaced orbit is obtained, and its stability is analyzed through a linearization. The results of stability analysis show that only some of the orbits are marginally stable. For unstable displaced orbits, linear quadratic regulator is employed to control the coupled attitude-orbit system. Numerical simulations show that the proposed strategy can control the coupled system and a small torque can stabilize both the attitude and orbit. In order to generate the control force and torque, the voltage distribution problem is studied in an optimal framework. The numerical results show that the control force and torque of electric sail can be realized by adjusting the voltage distribution of charged tethers.

  14. The radiative forcing potential of different climate geoengineering options

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. M. Lenton

    2009-08-01

    Full Text Available Climate geoengineering proposals seek to rectify the Earth's current and potential future radiative imbalance, either by reducing the absorption of incoming solar (shortwave radiation, or by removing CO2 from the atmosphere and transferring it to long-lived reservoirs, thus increasing outgoing longwave radiation. A fundamental criterion for evaluating geoengineering options is their climate cooling effectiveness, which we quantify here in terms of radiative forcing potential. We use a simple analytical approach, based on energy balance considerations and pulse response functions for the decay of CO2 perturbations. This aids transparency compared to calculations with complex numerical models, but is not intended to be definitive. It allows us to compare the relative effectiveness of a range of proposals. We consider geoengineering options as additional to large reductions in CO2 emissions. By 2050, some land carbon cycle geoengineering options could be of comparable magnitude to mitigation "wedges", but only stratospheric aerosol injections, albedo enhancement of marine stratocumulus clouds, or sunshades in space have the potential to cool the climate back toward its pre-industrial state. Strong mitigation, combined with global-scale air capture and storage, afforestation, and bio-char production, i.e. enhanced CO2 sinks, might be able to bring CO2 back to its pre-industrial level by 2100, thus removing the need for other geoengineering. Alternatively, strong mitigation stabilising CO2 at 500 ppm, combined with geoengineered increases in the albedo of marine stratiform clouds, grasslands, croplands and human settlements might achieve a patchy cancellation of radiative forcing. Ocean fertilisation options are only worthwhile if sustained on a millennial timescale and phosphorus addition may have greater long-term potential than iron or nitrogen fertilisation. Enhancing ocean

  15. Probabilistic estimates of 1.5-degree carbon budgets based on uncertainty in transient climate response and aerosol forcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Partanen, A. I.; Mengis, N.; Jalbert, J.; Matthews, D.

    2017-12-01

    Nations agreed to limit the increase in global mean surface temperature relative to the preindustrial era below 2 degrees Celsius and pursue efforts to a more ambitious goal of 1.5 degrees Celsius. To achieve these goals, it is necessary to assess the amount of cumulative carbon emissions compatible with these temperature targets, i.e. so called carbon budgets. In this work, we use the intermediate complexity University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model (UVic ESCM) to assess how uncertainty in aerosol forcing and transient climate response transfers to uncertainty in future carbon budgets for burning fossil fuels. We create a perturbed parameter ensemble of model simulations by scaling aerosol forcing and transient climate response, and assess the likelihood of each simulation by comparing the simulated historical cumulative carbon emissions, CO2 concentration and radiative balance to observations. By weighting the results of each simulation with the likelihood of the simulation, the preliminary results give a carbon budget of 48 Pg C to reach 1.5 degree Celsius temperature increase. The small weighted mean is due to large fraction of simulations with strong aerosol forcing and transient climate response giving negative carbon budgets for this time period. The probability of the carbon budget being over 100 Pg C was 38% and 23% for over 200 Pg carbon budget. The carbon budgets after temperature stabilization at 1.5 degrees are even smaller with a weighted mean of -100 Pg C until the year 2200. The main reason for the negative carbon budgets after temperature stabilization is an assumed strong decrease in aerosol forcing in the 21st century. Conversely, simulations with weak aerosol forcing and transient climate response give positive carbon budgets. Our results highlight both the importance of reducing uncertainty in aerosol forcing and transient climate response, and of taking the non-CO2 forcers into account when estimating carbon budgets.

  16. Long-term climate monitoring by the global climate observing system: report of breakout group 1 - climate forcings and feedbacks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miller, C.; Bretherton, F.

    1995-01-01

    The assignment for Breakout Group A was to re-visit and expand upon the plenary session discussion on climate forcings and feedbacks and to develop a set of recommendations for each of the science disciplines or activities covered within this breakout category. Working guidelines for the group included identifying: (1) what has to be done; (2) why it has to be done, i.e. who is the customer? (3) the process for remedying deficiencies and, specifically, how to leverage the activities at operational centers; and (4) priorities (recognizing that it is premature to distinguish between major systems). The science ares addressed included: greenhouse gases (GHGs); radiation budget; water vapor; aerosols; clouds; precipitation; tropospheric ozone; and solar radiation. The role of climate satellites was also noted

  17. The role of pCO2 in astronomically-paced climate and carbon cycle variations in the Middle Miocene

    Science.gov (United States)

    Penman, D. E.; Hull, P. M.; Scher, H.; Kirtland Turner, S.; Ridgwell, A.

    2017-12-01

    The pace of Earth's background climate variability is known to be driven by the Milankovitch cycles, variations in Earth's orbital parameters and axial tilt. While the Milankovitch (orbital) theory of climate change is very nearly universally accepted, the climate system mechanisms and feedbacks responsible for amplifying orbital cycles preserved in the geologic record remain uncertain. For the late Pleistocene, the ice core-derived record of atmospheric carbon dioxide (pCO2) is strongly coupled with global temperature on orbital time scales, indicating that internal feedbacks involving the carbon cycle amplify or even cause the large changes in global temperature during orbitally driven glacial-interglacial cycles. However, for earlier time periods beyond the range of ice cores (the last 800 kyr), it is not possible to directly compare records of pCO2 to orbital climate cycles because there are no high-resolution (orbitally resolved) records of pCO2 before the Pliocene. We address this deficiency with a high-resolution ( 5-10 kyr spacing) record of planktonic foraminiferal d11B-derived surface seawater pH (as well as d13C and trace metal analyses) over a 500 kyr time window in a sedimentary record with known Milankovitch-scale climate and carbon cycle oscillations: the Middle Miocene (14.0 - 14.5 Ma) at ODP Site 926 (subtropical North Atlantic). The resulting pH record can be used to constrain atmospheric pCO2, allowing comparison of the timescale and magnitude of carbon cycle changes during a period of eccentricity-dominated variability in the response of the global climate system (the Late Pleistocene) with a period of obliquity-dominance (the middle Miocene). These new records of planktic d11B and d13C will then be used to guide simulations of astronomical climate forcing in Earth System models, resulting in refined estimates of pCO2 changes over orbital cycles and providing quantitative constraints on the mechanisms and feedbacks responsible for the

  18. Drivers of 2016 record Arctic warmth assessed using climate simulations subjected to Factual and Counterfactual forcing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lantao Sun

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available A suite of historical atmospheric model simulations is described that uses a hierarchy of global boundary forcings designed to inform research on the detection and attribution of weather and climate-related extremes. In addition to experiments forced by actual variations in sea surface temperature, sea ice concentration, and atmospheric chemical composition (so-called Factual experiments; additional (Counterfactual experiments are conducted in which the boundary forcings are adjusted by removing estimates of long-term climate change. A third suite of experiments are identical to the Factual runs except that sea ice concentrations are set to climatological conditions (Clim-Polar experiments. These were used to investigate the cause for extremely warm Arctic surface temperature during 2016.Much of the magnitude of surface temperature anomalies averaged poleward of 65°N in 2016 (3.2 ± 0.6 °C above a 1980–89 reference is shown to have been forced by observed global boundary conditions. The Factual experiments reveal that at least three quarters of the magnitude of 2016 annual mean Arctic warmth was forced, with considerable sensitivity to assumptions of sea ice thickness change. Results also indicate that 30–40% of the overall forced Arctic warming signal in 2016 originated from drivers outside of the Arctic. Despite such remote effects, the experiments reveal that the extreme magnitude of the 2016 Arctic warmth could not have occurred without consideration of the Arctic sea ice loss. We find a near-zero probability for Arctic surface temperature to be as warm as occurred in 2016 under late-19th century boundary conditions, and also under 2016 boundary conditions that do not include the depleted Arctic sea ice. Results from the atmospheric model experiments are reconciled with coupled climate model simulations which lead to a conclusion that about 60% of the 2016 Arctic warmth was likely attributable to human-induced climate change

  19. Importance of Preserving Cross-correlation in developing Statistically Downscaled Climate Forcings and in estimating Land-surface Fluxes and States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Das Bhowmik, R.; Arumugam, S.

    2015-12-01

    Multivariate downscaling techniques exhibited superiority over univariate regression schemes in terms of preserving cross-correlations between multiple variables- precipitation and temperature - from GCMs. This study focuses on two aspects: (a) develop an analytical solutions on estimating biases in cross-correlations from univariate downscaling approaches and (b) quantify the uncertainty in land-surface states and fluxes due to biases in cross-correlations in downscaled climate forcings. Both these aspects are evaluated using climate forcings available from both historical climate simulations and CMIP5 hindcasts over the entire US. The analytical solution basically relates the univariate regression parameters, co-efficient of determination of regression and the co-variance ratio between GCM and downscaled values. The analytical solutions are compared with the downscaled univariate forcings by choosing the desired p-value (Type-1 error) in preserving the observed cross-correlation. . For quantifying the impacts of biases on cross-correlation on estimating streamflow and groundwater, we corrupt the downscaled climate forcings with different cross-correlation structure.

  20. Linking the uncertainty of low frequency variability in tropical forcing in regional climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Forest, Chris E. [Pennsylvania State Univ., University Park, PA (United States). Dept. of Meteorology; Barsugli, Joseph J. [Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO (United States). CIRES; Li, Wei [Pennsylvania State Univ., University Park, PA (United States). Dept. of Meteorology

    2015-02-20

    The project utilizes multiple atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) to examine the regional climate sensitivity to tropical sea surface temperature forcing through a series of ensemble experiments. The overall goal for this work is to use the global teleconnection operator (GTO) as a metric to assess the impact of model structural differences on the uncertainties in regional climate variability.

  1. Space station orbit maintenance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaplan, D. I.; Jones, R. M.

    1983-01-01

    The orbit maintenance problem is examined for two low-earth-orbiting space station concepts - the large, manned Space Operations Center (SOC) and the smaller, unmanned Science and Applications Space Platform (SASP). Atmospheric drag forces are calculated, and circular orbit altitudes are selected to assure a 90 day decay period in the event of catastrophic propulsion system failure. Several thrusting strategies for orbit maintenance are discussed. Various chemical and electric propulsion systems for orbit maintenance are compared on the basis of propellant resupply requirements, power requirements, Shuttle launch costs, and technology readiness.

  2. Orbitally-forced Azolla blooms and middle Eocene Arctic hydrology; clues from palynology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barke, Judith; Abels, Hemmo A.; Sangiorgi, Francesca; Greenwood, David R.; Sweet, Arthur R.; Donders, Timme; Lotter, Andre F.; Reichart, Gert-Jan; Brinkhuis, Henk

    2010-05-01

    The presence of high abundances of the freshwater fern Azolla in the early Middle Eocene central Arctic Ocean sediments recovered from the Lomonosov Ridge during IODP Expedition 302, have been related to the presence of a substantial freshwater cap. Azolla massulae, belonging to the newly described Eocene species Azolla arctica Collinson et al., have been found over at least a ~4 m-thick interval. There are strong indications that Azolla has bloomed and reproduced in situ in the Arctic Ocean for several hundreds of thousands of years. Possible causes for the sudden demise of Azolla at ~48.1 Ma include salinity changes due to evolving oceanic connections or sea-level change. Distinct cyclic fluctuation in the Azolla massulae abundances have previously been related to orbitally forced climate changes. In this study, we evaluate the possible underlying forcing mechanisms for these freshwater cycles and for the eventual demise of Azolla in an integrated palynological and cyclostratigraphical approach. Our results show two clear periodicities of ~1.3 and ~0.7 m in all major aquatic and terrestrial palynomorph associations, which we can relate to obliquity (41 ka) and precession (~21 ka), respectively. Cycles in the abundances of Azolla, freshwater-tolerant dinoflagellate cysts, and swamp vegetation pollen show co-variability in the obliquity domain. Their strong correlation suggests periods of enhanced rainfall and runoff during Azolla blooms, possibly associated with increased summer season length and insolation during obliquity maxima. Cycles in the angiosperm pollen record are in anti-phase with the Azolla cycles. We interpret this pattern as edaphically drier conditions on land and reduced associated runoff during Azolla lows, possibly corresponding to obliquity minima. The precession signal is distinctly weaker than that for obliquity, and is mainly detectable in the cold-temperate Larix and bisaccate conifer pollen abundances, which is interpreted as a response to

  3. Easy Volcanic Aerosol (EVA v1.0: an idealized forcing generator for climate simulations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Toohey

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Stratospheric sulfate aerosols from volcanic eruptions have a significant impact on the Earth's climate. To include the effects of volcanic eruptions in climate model simulations, the Easy Volcanic Aerosol (EVA forcing generator provides stratospheric aerosol optical properties as a function of time, latitude, height, and wavelength for a given input list of volcanic eruption attributes. EVA is based on a parameterized three-box model of stratospheric transport and simple scaling relationships used to derive mid-visible (550 nm aerosol optical depth and aerosol effective radius from stratospheric sulfate mass. Precalculated look-up tables computed from Mie theory are used to produce wavelength-dependent aerosol extinction, single scattering albedo, and scattering asymmetry factor values. The structural form of EVA and the tuning of its parameters are chosen to produce best agreement with the satellite-based reconstruction of stratospheric aerosol properties following the 1991 Pinatubo eruption, and with prior millennial-timescale forcing reconstructions, including the 1815 eruption of Tambora. EVA can be used to produce volcanic forcing for climate models which is based on recent observations and physical understanding but internally self-consistent over any timescale of choice. In addition, EVA is constructed so as to allow for easy modification of different aspects of aerosol properties, in order to be used in model experiments to help advance understanding of what aspects of the volcanic aerosol are important for the climate system.

  4. The influence of cirrus cloud-radiative forcing on climate and climate sensitivity in a general circulation model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lohmann, U.; Roeckner, E.

    1994-01-01

    Six numerical experiments have been performed with a general circulation model (GCM) to study the influence of high-level cirrus clouds and global sea surface temperature (SST) perturbations on climate and climate sensitivity. The GCM used in this investigation is the third-generation ECHAM3 model developed jointly by the Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology and the University of Hamburg. It is shown that the model is able to reproduce many features of the observed cloud-radiative forcing with considerable skill, such as the annual mean distribution, the response to seasonal forcing and the response to observed SST variations in the equatorial Pacific. In addition to a reference experiment where the cirrus emissivity is computed as a function of the cloud water content, two sensitivity experiments have been performed in which the cirrus emissivity is either set to zero everywhere above 400 hPa ('transparent cirrus') or set to one ('black cirrus'). These three experiments are repeated identically, except for prescribing a globally uniform SST warming of 4 K. (orig.)

  5. Landscape dynamics and different climate forcings in eastern Mongolia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, N. J.; John, R.; Chen, J.

    2017-12-01

    Central and Eastern Mongolia have witnessed significant decreasing greening from the period 2000-2012. This decline may be partially, directly due to increased grazing pressure from livestock. Our study objective is to understand how landscape change may be altering heat fluxes and precipitation. Using the RAMS 6.0 regional climate model, we simulated the spatiotemporal changes in growing-season precipitation and atmospheric behavior under: (a) observed vegetation, and (b) aggressively reduced vegetation, to prognose likely locations and changes of the regional climate that might have resulted from land cover changes (2001-2010). We simulated a dzud/drought year (using forcing from 2001) and a wet year (using forcing from 2003). Our simulations show increased cloud cover and reduced daily temperature ranges for northeastern Mongolia where forest growth has expanded. Localized differences of 60 W/m2 of sensible heat flux were found when degraded landscape cover replaced older, more dense cover. More importantly, the overall trend towards reduced vegetation cover was responsible for higher screen height temperatures and reduced soil moisture throughout much of the domain, together with a shift of moisture southward of Inner Mongolia. Thus, even with improved chances for convection, soil moisture reductions of 5-10% would lead to overall even drier conditions. In the steppe regions around the Gobi desert, more complex patterns are evident and landscape drivers are less clear.

  6. Climate forcing of an emerging pathogenic fungus across a montane multi-host community.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clare, Frances C; Halder, Julia B; Daniel, Olivia; Bielby, Jon; Semenov, Mikhail A; Jombart, Thibaut; Loyau, Adeline; Schmeller, Dirk S; Cunningham, Andrew A; Rowcliffe, Marcus; Garner, Trenton W J; Bosch, Jaime; Fisher, Matthew C

    2016-12-05

    Changes in the timings of seasonality as a result of anthropogenic climate change are predicted to occur over the coming decades. While this is expected to have widespread impacts on the dynamics of infectious disease through environmental forcing, empirical data are lacking. Here, we investigated whether seasonality, specifically the timing of spring ice-thaw, affected susceptibility to infection by the emerging pathogenic fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) across a montane community of amphibians that are suffering declines and extirpations as a consequence of this infection. We found a robust temporal association between the timing of the spring thaw and Bd infection in two host species, where we show that an early onset of spring forced high prevalences of infection. A third highly susceptible species (the midwife toad, Alytes obstetricans) maintained a high prevalence of infection independent of time of spring thaw. Our data show that perennially overwintering midwife toad larvae may act as a year-round reservoir of infection with variation in time of spring thaw determining the extent to which infection spills over into sympatric species. We used future temperature projections based on global climate models to demonstrate that the timing of spring thaw in this region will advance markedly by the 2050s, indicating that climate change will further force the severity of infection. Our findings on the effect of annual variability on multi-host infection dynamics show that the community-level impact of fungal infectious disease on biodiversity will need to be re-evaluated in the face of climate change.This article is part of the themed issue 'Tackling emerging fungal threats to animal health, food security and ecosystem resilience'. © 2016 The Authors.

  7. Coupling Satellite and Ground-Based Instruments to Map Climate Forcing by Anthropogenic Aerosols

    Science.gov (United States)

    Charlson, Robert J.; Anderson, Theodore L.; Hostetler, Chris (Technical Monitor)

    2000-01-01

    Climate forcing by anthropogenic aerosols is a significant but highly uncertain factor in global climate change. Only satellites can offer the global coverage essential to reducing this uncertainty; however, satellite measurements must be coupled with correlative, in situ measurements both to constrain the aerosol optical properties required in satellite retrieval algorithms and to provide chemical identification of aerosol sources. This grant funded the first two years of a three-year project which seeks to develop methodologies for combining spaceborne lidar with in-situ aerosol data sets to improve estimates of direct aerosol climate forcing. Progress under this two-year grant consisted in the development and deployment of a new in-situ capability for measuring aerosol 180' backscatter and the extinction-to-backscatter ratio. This new measurement capacity allows definitive lidar/in-situ comparisons and improves our ability to interpret lidar data in terms of climatically relevant quantities such as the extinction coefficient and optical depth. Measurements were made along the coast of Washington State, in Central Illinois, over the Indian Ocean, and in the Central Pacific. Thus, this research, combined with previous measurements by others, is rapidly building toward a global data set of extinction-to-backscatter ratio for key aerosol types. Such information will be critical to interpreting lidar data from the upcoming PICASSO-CENA, or P-C, satellite mission. Another aspect of this project is to investigate innovative ways to couple the lidar-satellite signal with targeted in-situ measurements toward a direct determination of aerosol forcing. This aspect is progressing in collaboration with NASA Langley's P-C lidar simulator and radiative transfer modeling by the University of Lille, France.

  8. Improving BDS Autonomous Orbit Determination Performance Using Onboard Accelerometers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    QIAO Jing

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Autonomous orbit determination is a crucial step for GNSS development to improve GNSS vulnerability, integrity, reliability and robustness. The newly launched BeiDou (BD satellites are capable of conducting satellite to satellite tracking (SST, which can be used for autonomous orbit determination. However, using SST data only, the BD satellite system (BDS will have whole constellation rotation in the absence of absolute constraints from ground or other celestial body over time, due to various force perturbations. The perturbations can be categorized into conservative forces and non-conservative forces. The conservative forces, such as the Earth non-spherical perturbations, tidal perturbation, the solar, lunar and other third-body perturbations, can be precisely modeled with latest force models. The non-conservative forces (i.e. Solar Radiation Pressure (SRP, on the other hand, are difficult to be modeled precisely, which are the main factors affecting satellite orbit determination accuracy. In recent years, accelerometers onboard satellites have been used to directly measure the non-conservative forces for gravity recovery and atmosphere study, such as GRACE, CHAMP, and GOCE missions. This study investigates the feasibility to use accelerometers onboard BD satellites to improve BD autonomous orbit determination accuracy and service span. Using simulated BD orbit and SST data, together with the error models of existing space-borne accelerometers, the orbit determination accuracy for BD constellation is evaluated using either SST data only or SST data with accelerometers. An empirical SRP model is used to extract non-conservative forces. The simulation results show that the orbit determination accuracy using SST with accelerometers is significantly better than that with SST data only. Assuming 0.33 m random noises and decimeter level signal transponder system biases in SST data, IGSO and MEO satellites decimeter level orbit accuracy can be

  9. ­Orbital-scale variations in Indo-Pacific hydroclimate during the mid- to late Pleistocene from Lake Towuti, Indonesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Russell, J. M.; Vogel, H.; Bijaksana, S.; Melles, M.

    2016-12-01

    The Indo-Pacific region plays a critical role in the Earth's climate system. Changes in local insolation, greenhouse gas concentrations, ice volume, and local sea level are all hypothesized to exert a dominant control on Indo-Pacific hydroclimate, yet existing records from the region are generally short and exhibit fundamental differences in orbital-scale patterns that limit our understanding of the regional climate responses to orbital-scale forcings. In 2015 we conducted an ICDP drilling program on Lake Towuti, located near the equator in central Indonesia, one of the only terrestrial sedimentary archives in the region that continuously spans multiple glacial-interglacial cycles. We recovered over 1,000 meters of core including cores though the entire sediment sequence to bedrock. Previously published organic geochemical reconstructions of vegetation from relatively short, 60 kyr long piston from Lake Towuti exhibit strong drying during the Last Glacial Maximum, indicating that central Indonesian hydroclimate is sensitive to forcing from high-latitude ice-sheets. New, inorganic geochemical and mineralogical reconstructions of lake level also indicate a strong half-precessional climate signal during the last 60 kyr in which lake level highstands occur during austral and boreal summer insolation maxima, suggesting that equatorial rainfall varies in response to remote (likely subtropical) insolation forcing of the Asian monsoons. However, the short length of these records limits our understanding of the regional hydroclimatic response to the full range of global climate boundary conditions experienced during the late Quaternary. This presentation will discuss results from the last 60 kyr and present new geochemical reconstructions from the upper 100 m of core from Lake Towuti, dated using magnetic paleointensity, tephrachronology, and optically-stimulated luminescence to span the last 500 kyr BP.

  10. Climate forcing and infectious disease transmission in urban landscapes: integrating demographic and socioeconomic heterogeneity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santos-Vega, Mauricio; Martinez, Pamela P; Pascual, Mercedes

    2016-10-01

    Urbanization and climate change are the two major environmental challenges of the 21st century. The dramatic expansion of cities around the world creates new conditions for the spread, surveillance, and control of infectious diseases. In particular, urban growth generates pronounced spatial heterogeneity within cities, which can modulate the effect of climate factors at local spatial scales in large urban environments. Importantly, the interaction between environmental forcing and socioeconomic heterogeneity at local scales remains an open area in infectious disease dynamics, especially for urban landscapes of the developing world. A quantitative and conceptual framework on urban health with a focus on infectious diseases would benefit from integrating aspects of climate forcing, population density, and level of wealth. In this paper, we review what is known about these drivers acting independently and jointly on urban infectious diseases; we then outline elements that are missing and would contribute to building such a framework. © 2016 New York Academy of Sciences.

  11. Vertical microphysical profiles of convective clouds as a tool for obtaining aerosol cloud-mediated climate forcings

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rosenfeld, Daniel [Hebrew Univ. of Jerusalem (Israel)

    2015-12-23

    Quantifying the aerosol/cloud-mediated radiative effect at a global scale requires simultaneous satellite retrievals of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentrations and cloud base updraft velocities (Wb). Hitherto, the inability to do so has been a major cause of high uncertainty regarding anthropogenic aerosol/cloud-mediated radiative forcing. This can be addressed by the emerging capability of estimating CCN and Wb of boundary layer convective clouds from an operational polar orbiting weather satellite. Our methodology uses such clouds as an effective analog for CCN chambers. The cloud base supersaturation (S) is determined by Wb and the satellite-retrieved cloud base drop concentrations (Ndb), which is the same as CCN(S). Developing and validating this methodology was possible thanks to the ASR/ARM measurements of CCN and vertical updraft profiles. Validation against ground-based CCN instruments at the ARM sites in Oklahoma, Manaus, and onboard a ship in the northeast Pacific showed a retrieval accuracy of ±25% to ±30% for individual satellite overpasses. The methodology is presently limited to boundary layer not raining convective clouds of at least 1 km depth that are not obscured by upper layer clouds, including semitransparent cirrus. The limitation for small solar backscattering angles of <25º restricts the satellite coverage to ~25% of the world area in a single day. This methodology will likely allow overcoming the challenge of quantifying the aerosol indirect effect and facilitate a substantial reduction of the uncertainty in anthropogenic climate forcing.

  12. Climate forcing growth rates: doubling down on our Faustian bargain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, James; Kharecha, Pushker; Sato, Makiko

    2013-03-01

    Rahmstorf et al 's (2012) conclusion that observed climate change is comparable to projections, and in some cases exceeds projections, allows further inferences if we can quantify changing climate forcings and compare those with projections. The largest climate forcing is caused by well-mixed long-lived greenhouse gases. Here we illustrate trends of these gases and their climate forcings, and we discuss implications. We focus on quantities that are accurately measured, and we include comparison with fixed scenarios, which helps reduce common misimpressions about how climate forcings are changing. Annual fossil fuel CO2 emissions have shot up in the past decade at about 3% yr-1, double the rate of the prior three decades (figure 1). The growth rate falls above the range of the IPCC (2001) 'Marker' scenarios, although emissions are still within the entire range considered by the IPCC SRES (2000). The surge in emissions is due to increased coal use (blue curve in figure 1), which now accounts for more than 40% of fossil fuel CO2 emissions. Figure 1. Figure 1. CO2 annual emissions from fossil fuel use and cement manufacture, an update of figure 16 of Hansen (2003) using data of British Petroleum (BP 2012) concatenated with data of Boden et al (2012). The resulting annual increase of atmospheric CO2 (12-month running mean) has grown from less than 1 ppm yr-1 in the early 1960s to an average ~2 ppm yr-1 in the past decade (figure 2). Although CO2 measurements were not made at sufficient locations prior to the early 1980s to calculate the global mean change, the close match of global and Mauna Loa data for later years suggests that Mauna Loa data provide a good approximation of global change (figure 2), thus allowing a useful estimate of annual global change beginning with the initiation of Mauna Loa measurements in 1958 by Keeling et al (1973). Figure 2. Figure 2. Annual increase of CO2 based on data from the NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL 2012). CO2 change

  13. Air pollution and climate-forcing impacts of a global hydrogen economy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schultz, Martin G; Diehl, Thomas; Brasseur, Guy P; Zittel, Werner

    2003-10-24

    If today's surface traffic fleet were powered entirely by hydrogen fuel cell technology, anthropogenic emissions of the ozone precursors nitrogen oxide (NOx) and carbon monoxide could be reduced by up to 50%, leading to significant improvements in air quality throughout the Northern Hemisphere. Model simulations of such a scenario predict a decrease in global OH and an increased lifetime of methane, caused primarily by the reduction of the NOx emissions. The sign of the change in climate forcing caused by carbon dioxide and methane depends on the technology used to generate the molecular hydrogen. A possible rise in atmospheric hydrogen concentrations is unlikely to cause significant perturbations of the climate system.

  14. How realistic are air quality hindcasts driven by forcings from climate model simulations?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lacressonnière, G.; Peuch, V.-H.; Arteta, J.; Josse, B.; Joly, M.; Marécal, V.; Saint Martin, D.; Déqué, M.; Watson, L.

    2012-12-01

    Predicting how European air quality could evolve over the next decades in the context of changing climate requires the use of climate models to produce results that can be averaged in a climatologically and statistically sound manner. This is a very different approach from the one that is generally used for air quality hindcasts for the present period; analysed meteorological fields are used to represent specifically each date and hour. Differences arise both from the fact that a climate model run results in a pure model output, with no influence from observations (which are useful to correct for a range of errors), and that in a "climate" set-up, simulations on a given day, month or even season cannot be related to any specific period of time (but can just be interpreted in a climatological sense). Hence, although an air quality model can be thoroughly validated in a "realistic" set-up using analysed meteorological fields, the question remains of how far its outputs can be interpreted in a "climate" set-up. For this purpose, we focus on Europe and on the current decade using three 5-yr simulations performed with the multiscale chemistry-transport model MOCAGE and use meteorological forcings either from operational meteorological analyses or from climate simulations. We investigate how statistical skill indicators compare in the different simulations, discriminating also the effects of meteorology on atmospheric fields (winds, temperature, humidity, pressure, etc.) and on the dependent emissions and deposition processes (volatile organic compound emissions, deposition velocities, etc.). Our results show in particular how differing boundary layer heights and deposition velocities affect horizontal and vertical distributions of species. When the model is driven by operational analyses, the simulation accurately reproduces the observed values of O3, NOx, SO2 and, with some bias that can be explained by the set-up, PM10. We study how the simulations driven by climate

  15. Reduction of systematic biases in regional climate downscaling through ensemble forcing

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yang, Hongwei; Wang, Bin [Chinese Academy of Sciences, LASG, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Beijing (China); Wang, Bin [University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Meteorology, Honolulu, Hawaii (United States); University of Hawaii at Manoa, International Pacific Research Center, Honolulu, Hawaii (United States)

    2012-02-15

    Simulations of the East Asian summer monsoon for the period of 1979-2001 were carried out using the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model forced by three reanalysis datasets (NCEP-R2, ERA-40, and JRA-25). The experiments forced by different reanalysis data exhibited remarkable differences, primarily caused by uncertainties in the lateral boundary (LB) moisture fluxes over the Bay of Bengal and the Philippine Sea. The climatological mean water vapor convergence into the model domain computed from ERA-40 was about 24% higher than that from the NCEP-R2 reanalysis. We demonstrate that using the ensemble mean of NCEP-R2, ERA-40, and JRA-25 as LB forcing considerably reduced the biases in the model simulation. The use of ensemble forcing improved the performance in simulated mean circulation and precipitation, inter-annual variation in seasonal precipitation, and daily precipitation. The model simulated precipitation was superior to that in the reanalysis in both climatology and year-to-year variations, indicating the added value of dynamic downscaling. The results suggest that models having better performance under one set of LB forcing might worsen when another set of reanalysis data is used as LB forcing. Use of ensemble mean LB forcing for assessing regional climate model performance is recommended. (orig.)

  16. Contributions of developed and developing countries to global climate forcing and surface temperature change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ward, D S; Mahowald, N M

    2014-01-01

    Understanding the relative contributions of individual countries to global climate change for different time periods is essential for mitigation strategies that seek to hold nations accountable for their historical emissions. Previous assessments of this kind have compared countries by their greenhouse gas emissions, but have yet to consider the full spectrum of the short-lived gases and aerosols. In this study, we use the radiative forcing of anthropogenic emissions of long-lived greenhouse gases, ozone precursors, aerosols, and from albedo changes from land cover change together with a simple climate model to evaluate country contributions to climate change. We assess the historical contribution of each country to global surface temperature change from anthropogenic forcing ( Δ T s ), future Δ T s through year 2100 given two different emissions scenarios, and the Δ T s that each country has committed to from past activities between 1850 and 2010 (committed Δ T s ). By including forcings in addition to the long-lived greenhouse gases the contribution of developed countries, particularly the United States, to Δ T s from 1850 to 2010 (58%) is increased compared to an assessment of CO 2 -equivalent emissions for the same time period (52%). Contributions to committed Δ T s evaluated at year 2100, dominated by long-lived greenhouse gas forcing, are more evenly split between developed and developing countries (55% and 45%, respectively). The portion of anthropogenic Δ T s attributable to developing countries is increasing, led by emissions from China and India, and we estimate that this will surpass the contribution from developed countries around year 2030. (paper)

  17. Anthropogenic radiative forcing of southern African and Southern Hemisphere climate variability and change

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Engelbrecht, FA

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available of stratospheric ozone, greenhouse gasses, aerosols and sulphur dioxide, can improve the model's skill to simulate inter-annual variability over southern Africa. The paper secondly explores the role of different radiative forcings of future climate change over...

  18. Direct shortwave forcing of climate by anthropogenic sulfate aerosol: Sensitivity to particle size, composition, and relative humidity

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nemesure, S.; Wagener, R.; Schwartz, S.E. [Brookhaven National Lab., Upton, New York (United States)

    1996-04-01

    Recent estimates of global or hemispheric average forcing of climate by anthropogenic sulfate aerosol due to scattering of shortwave radiation are uncertain by more than a factor of 2. This paper examines the sensitivity of forcing to these microphysical properties for the purposes of obtaining a better understanding of the properties required to reduce the uncertainty in the forcing.

  19. Is climate change an unforeseen, irresistible and external factor - A force majeure in marine environmental law?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saul, Roxanne; Barnes, Richard; Elliott, Michael

    2016-12-15

    Several environmental laws include provisions on natural causes or force majeure, which except States from their commitments if it can be proven that the failure to meet the commitment is due to factors outside their control. The European Union Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD) has a pivotal role in managing EU marine waters. This paper analyses natural causes and force majeure provisions of the MFSD and other marine legislation, and addresses their interaction with climate change and its consequences, especially the effect on the obligation of ensuring seas are in Good Environmental Status. Climate change is an exogenic unmanaged pressure in that it emanates from outside the area being managed but in which the management authority has to respond to the consequences of climate change, such as sea level rise and temperature elevation, rather than its causes. It is suggested that a defence by a Member State of force majeure may be accepted if an event was proven to be due to an externality of control, irresistible and unforeseeable. The analysis contends that countering such a legal defence would centre on the fact that climate change is a well-accepted phenomenon, is foreseen with an accepted level of confidence and probability and is due to human actions. However, as yet, this has not been legally tested. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Automated cloud tracking system for the Akatsuki Venus Climate Orbiter data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ogohara, Kazunori; Kouyama, Toru; Yamamoto, Hiroki; Sato, Naoki; Takagi, Masahiro; Imamura, Takeshi

    2012-02-01

    Japanese Venus Climate Orbiter, Akatsuki, is cruising to approach to Venus again although its first Venus orbital insertion (VOI) has been failed. At present, we focus on the next opportunity of VOI and the following scientific observations.We have constructed an automated cloud tracking system for processing data obtained by Akatsuki in the present study. In this system, correction of the pointing of the satellite is essentially important for improving accuracy of the cloud motion vectors derived using the cloud tracking. Attitude errors of the satellite are reduced by fitting an ellipse to limb of an imaged Venus disk. Next, longitude-latitude distributions of brightness (cloud patterns) are calculated to make it easy to derive the cloud motion vectors. The grid points are distributed at regular intervals in the longitude-latitude coordinate. After applying the solar zenith correction and a highpass filter to the derived longitude-latitude distributions of brightness, the cloud features are tracked using pairs of images. As a result, we obtain cloud motion vectors on longitude-latitude grid points equally spaced. These entire processes are pipelined and automated, and are applied to all data obtained by combinations of cameras and filters onboard Akatsuki. It is shown by several tests that the cloud motion vectors are determined with a sufficient accuracy. We expect that longitude-latitude data sets created by the automated cloud tracking system will contribute to the Venus meteorology.

  1. Orbital-scale nonlinear response of East Asian summer monsoon to its potential driving forces in the late Quaternary

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yi, Liang; Shi, Zhengguo; Tan, Liangcheng; Deng, Chenglong

    2018-03-01

    We conducted a statistical study to characterize the nonlinear response of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) to its potential forcing factors over the last 260 ka on orbital timescales. We find that both variation in solar insolation and global ice volume were responsible for the nonlinear forcing of orbital-scale monsoonal variations, accounting for 80% of the total variance. Specifically, EASM records with dominated precession variance exhibit a more sensitive response to changes in solar insolation during intervals of enhanced monsoon strength, but are less sensitive during intervals of reduced monsoon strength. In the case of global ice volume with 100-ka variance, this difference is not one of sensitivity but rather a difference in baseline conditions, such as the relative areas of land and sea which affected the land-sea thermal gradient. We therefore suggest that EASM records with dominated precession variance recorded the signal of a shift in the location of the Inter-tropical Convergence Zone, and the associated changes in the incidence of torrential rainfall; while for proxies with dominated 100-ka variance, it recorded changes in the land-sea thermal gradient via its effects on non-torrential precipitation.

  2. Deadly Sunflower Orbits

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamilton, Douglas P.

    2018-04-01

    Solar radiation pressure is usually very effective at removing hazardous millimeter-sized debris from distant orbits around asteroidsand other small solar system bodies (Hamilton and Burns 1992). Theprimary loss mechanism, driven by the azimuthal component of radiationpressure, is eccentricity growth followed by a forced collision withthe central body. One large class of orbits, however, neatly sidestepsthis fate. Orbits oriented nearly perpendicular to the solar directioncan maintain their face-on geometry, oscillating slowly around a stableequilibrium orbit. These orbits, designated sunflower orbits, arerelated to terminator orbits studied by spacecraft mission designers(Broschart etal. 2014).Destabilization of sunflower orbits occurs only for particles smallenough that radiation pressure is some tens of percent the strength ofthe central body's direct gravity. This greatly enhanced stability,which follows from the inability of radiation incident normal to theorbit to efficiently drive eccentricities, presents a threat tospacecraft missions, as numerous dangerous projectiles are potentiallyretained in orbit. We have investigated sunflower orbits insupport of the New Horizons, Aida, and Lucy missions and find thatthese orbits are stable for hazardous particle sizes at asteroids,comets, and Kuiper belt objects of differing dimensions. Weinvestigate the sources and sinks for debris that might populate suchorbits, estimate timescales and equilibrium populations, and willreport on our findings.

  3. Climate responses to SATIRE and SIM-based spectral solar forcing in a 3D atmosphere-ocean coupled GCM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wen Guoyong

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available We apply two reconstructed spectral solar forcing scenarios, one SIM (Spectral Irradiance Monitor based, the other the SATIRE (Spectral And Total Irradiance REconstruction modeled, as inputs to the GISS (Goddard Institute for Space Studies GCMAM (Global Climate Middle Atmosphere Model to examine climate responses on decadal to centennial time scales, focusing on quantifying the difference of climate response between the two solar forcing scenarios. We run the GCMAM for about 400 years with present day trace gas and aerosol for the two solar forcing inputs. We find that the SIM-based solar forcing induces much larger long-term response and 11-year variation in global averaged stratospheric temperature and column ozone. We find significant decreasing trends of planetary albedo for both forcing scenarios in the 400-year model runs. However the mechanisms for the decrease are very different. For SATIRE solar forcing, the decreasing trend of planetary albedo is associated with changes in cloud cover. For SIM-based solar forcing, without significant change in cloud cover on centennial and longer time scales, the apparent decreasing trend of planetary albedo is mainly due to out-of-phase variation in shortwave radiative forcing proxy (downwelling flux for wavelength >330 nm and total solar irradiance (TSI. From the Maunder Minimum to present, global averaged annual mean surface air temperature has a response of ~0.1 °C to SATIRE solar forcing compared to ~0.04 °C to SIM-based solar forcing. For 11-year solar cycle, the global surface air temperature response has 3-year lagged response to either forcing scenario. The global surface air 11-year temperature response to SATIRE forcing is about 0.12 °C, similar to recent multi-model estimates, and comparable to the observational-based evidence. However, the global surface air temperature response to 11-year SIM-based solar forcing is insignificant and inconsistent with observation-based evidence.

  4. Plio-Pleistocene imprint of natural climate cycles in marine sediments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lebreiro, S. M.

    2013-06-01

    The response of Earth to natural climate cyclicity is written in marine sediments. The Earth is a complex system, as is climate change determined by various modes, frequency of cycles, forcings, boundary conditions, thresholds, and tipping elements. Oceans act as climate change buffers, and marine sediments provide archives of climate conditions in the Earths history. To read climate records they must be well-dated, well-calibrated and analysed at high-resolution. Reconstructions of past climates are based on climate variables such as atmospheric composition, temperature, salinity, ocean productivity and wind, the nature and quality which are of the utmost importance. Once the palaeoclimate and palaeoceanographic proxy-variables of past events are well documented, the best results of modelling and validation, and future predictions can be obtained from climate models. Neither the mechanisms for abrupt climate changes at orbital, millennial and multi-decadal time scales nor the origin, rhythms and stability of cyclicity are as yet fully understood. Possible sources of cyclicity are either natural in the form of internal ocean-atmosphere-land interactions or external radioactive forcing such as solar irradiance and volcanic activity, or else anthropogenic. Coupling with stochastic resonance is also very probable. I provide here, an overview of the cyclicity affecting the Earth on various time scales focussing upon the Plio-Pleistocene and Holocene epochs, together with a compilation of some of the key questions under debate, and a number of representative works that illustrate cyclicity in marine sediments. (Author)

  5. The Role of Forcing and Internal Dynamics in explaining the 'Medieval Climate Anomaly'

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goossee, Hugues; Crespin, Elisabeth; Dubinkina, Svetlana; Loutre, Marie-France; Mann, Michael E.; Renssen, Hans; Shindell, Drew

    2012-01-01

    Proxy reconstructions suggest that peak global temperature during the past warm interval known as the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA, roughly 950-1250 AD) has been exceeded only during the most recent decades. To better understand the origin of this warm period, we use model simulations constrained by data assimilation establishing the spatial pattern of temperature changes that is most consistent with forcing estimates, model physics and the empirical information contained in paleoclimate proxy records. These numerical experiments demonstrate that the reconstructed spatial temperature pattern of the MCA can be explained by a simple thermodynamical response of the climate system to relatively weak changes in radiative forcing combined with a modification of the atmospheric circulation, displaying some similarities with the positive phase of the so-called Arctic Oscillation, and with northward shifts in the position of the Gulf Stream and Kuroshio currents. The mechanisms underlying the MCA are thus quite different from anthropogenic mechanisms responsible for modern global warming.

  6. Future Climate Impacts of Direct Radiative Forcing Anthropogenic Aerosols, Tropospheric Ozone, and Long-lived Greenhouse Gases

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Wei-Ting; Liao, Hong; Seinfeld, John H.

    2007-01-01

    Long-lived greenhouse gases (GHGs) are the most important driver of climate change over the next century. Aerosols and tropospheric ozone (O3) are expected to induce significant perturbations to the GHG-forced climate. To distinguish the equilibrium climate responses to changes in direct radiative forcing of anthropogenic aerosols, tropospheric ozone, and GHG between present day and year 2100, four 80-year equilibrium climates are simulated using a unified tropospheric chemistry-aerosol model within the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) general circulation model (GCM) 110. Concentrations of sulfate, nitrate, primary organic (POA) carbon, secondary organic (SOA) carbon, black carbon (BC) aerosols, and tropospheric ozone for present day and year 2100 are obtained a priori by coupled chemistry-aerosol GCM simulations, with emissions of aerosols, ozone, and precursors based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenario (SRES) A2. Changing anthropogenic aerosols, tropospheric ozone, and GHG from present day to year 2100 is predicted to perturb the global annual mean radiative forcing by +0.18 (considering aerosol direct effects only), +0.65, and +6.54 W m(sup -2) at the tropopause, and to induce an equilibrium global annual mean surface temperature change of +0.14, +0.32, and +5.31 K, respectively, with the largest temperature response occurring at northern high latitudes. Anthropogenic aerosols, through their direct effect, are predicted to alter the Hadley circulation owing to an increasing interhemispheric temperature gradient, leading to changes in tropical precipitation. When changes in both aerosols and tropospheric ozone are considered, the predicted patterns of change in global circulation and the hydrological cycle are similar to those induced by aerosols alone. GHG-induced climate changes, such as amplified warming over high latitudes, weakened Hadley circulation, and increasing precipitation over the

  7. Satellite methods underestimate indirect climate forcing by aerosols

    Science.gov (United States)

    Penner, Joyce E.; Xu, Li; Wang, Minghuai

    2011-01-01

    Satellite-based estimates of the aerosol indirect effect (AIE) are consistently smaller than the estimates from global aerosol models, and, partly as a result of these differences, the assessment of this climate forcing includes large uncertainties. Satellite estimates typically use the present-day (PD) relationship between observed cloud drop number concentrations (Nc) and aerosol optical depths (AODs) to determine the preindustrial (PI) values of Nc. These values are then used to determine the PD and PI cloud albedos and, thus, the effect of anthropogenic aerosols on top of the atmosphere radiative fluxes. Here, we use a model with realistic aerosol and cloud processes to show that empirical relationships for ln(Nc) versus ln(AOD) derived from PD results do not represent the atmospheric perturbation caused by the addition of anthropogenic aerosols to the preindustrial atmosphere. As a result, the model estimates based on satellite methods of the AIE are between a factor of 3 to more than a factor of 6 smaller than model estimates based on actual PD and PI values for Nc. Using ln(Nc) versus ln(AI) (Aerosol Index, or the optical depth times angstrom exponent) to estimate preindustrial values for Nc provides estimates for Nc and forcing that are closer to the values predicted by the model. Nevertheless, the AIE using ln(Nc) versus ln(AI) may be substantially incorrect on a regional basis and may underestimate or overestimate the global average forcing by 25 to 35%. PMID:21808047

  8. Historical and idealized climate model experiments: an intercomparison of Earth system models of intermediate complexity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Eby, M.; Weaver, A. J.; Alexander, K.

    2013-01-01

    Both historical and idealized climate model experiments are performed with a variety of Earth system models of intermediate complexity (EMICs) as part of a community contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report. Historical simulations start at 850 CE...... and continue through to 2005. The standard simulations include changes in forcing from solar luminosity, Earth's orbital configuration, CO2, additional greenhouse gases, land use, and sulphate and volcanic aerosols. In spite of very different modelled pre-industrial global surface air temperatures, overall 20...

  9. On the Representation of Ice Nucleation in Global Climate Models, and its Importance for Simulations of Climate Forcings and Feedbacks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Storelvmo, T.

    2015-12-01

    Substantial improvements have been made to the cloud microphysical schemes used in the latest generation of global climate models (GCMs), however, an outstanding weakness of these schemes lies in the arbitrariness of their tuning parameters. Despite the growing effort in improving the cloud microphysical schemes in GCMs, most of this effort has not focused on improving the ability of GCMs to accurately simulate phase partitioning in mixed-phase clouds. Getting the relative proportion of liquid droplets and ice crystals in clouds right in GCMs is critical for the representation of cloud radiative forcings and cloud-climate feedbacks. Here, we first present satellite observations of cloud phase obtained by NASA's CALIOP instrument, and report on robust statistical relationships between cloud phase and several aerosols species that have been demonstrated to act as ice nuclei (IN) in laboratory studies. We then report on results from model intercomparison projects that reveal that GCMs generally underestimate the amount of supercooled liquid in clouds. For a selected GCM (NCAR 's CAM5), we thereafter show that the underestimate can be attributed to two main factors: i) the presence of IN in the mixed-phase temperature range, and ii) the Wegener-Bergeron-Findeisen process, which converts liquid to ice once ice crystals have formed. Finally, we show that adjusting these two processes such that the GCM's cloud phase is in agreement with the observed has a substantial impact on the simulated radiative forcing due to IN perturbations, as well as on the cloud-climate feedbacks and ultimately climate sensitivity simulated by the GCM.

  10. Early Paleogene Orbital Variations in Atmospheric CO2 and New Astronomical Solutions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeebe, R. E.

    2017-12-01

    Geologic records across the globe show prominent variations on orbital time scales during numerous epochs going back hundreds of millions of years. The origin of the Milankovic cycles are variations in orbital parameters of the bodies of the Solar System. On long time scales, the orbital variations can not be computed analytically because of the chaotic nature of the Solar System. Thus, numerical solutions are used to estimate changes in, e.g., Earth's orbital parameters in the past. The orbital solutions represent the backbone of cyclostratigraphy and astrochronology, now widely used in geology and paleoclimatology. Hitherto only two solutions for Earth's eccentricity appear to be used in paleoclimate studies, provided by two different groups that integrated the full Solar System equations over the past >100 Myr. In this presentation, I will touch on the basic physics behind, and present new results of, accurate Solar System integrations for Earth's eccentricity over the past hundred million years. I will discuss various limitations within the framework of the present simulations and compare the results to existing solutions. Furthermore, I will present new results from practical applications of such orbital solutions, including effects of orbital forcing on coupled climate- and carbon cycle variations. For instance, we have recently revealed a mechanism for a large lag between changes in carbon isotope ratios and eccentricity at the 400-kyr period, which has been observed in Paleocene, Oligocene, and Miocene sections. Finally, I will present the first estimates of orbital-scale variations in atmospheric CO2 during the early Paleogene.

  11. 75 FR 43944 - Defense Science Board; Task Force on Trends and Implications of Climate Change for National and...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-27

    ... DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE Office of the Secretary Defense Science Board; Task Force on Trends and Implications of Climate Change for National and International Security AGENCY: Department of Defense (DoD... and Implications of Climate Change for National and International Security will meet in closed session...

  12. 75 FR 34438 - Defense Science Board Task Force on Trends and Implications of Climate Change for National and...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-06-17

    ... DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE Office of the Secretary Defense Science Board Task Force on Trends and Implications of Climate Change for National and International Security AGENCY: Department of Defense (DoD... and Implications of Climate Change for National and International Security will meet in closed session...

  13. Whirling orbits around twirling black holes from conformal symmetry

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hadar, Shahar [Department of Applied Mathematics and Theoretical Physics, University of Cambridge,Wilberforce Road, Cambridge CB3 0WA (United Kingdom); Porfyriadis, Achilleas P. [Department of Physics, UCSB,Santa Barbara, CA 93106 (United States)

    2017-03-03

    Dynamics in the throat of rapidly rotating Kerr black holes is governed by an emergent near-horizon conformal symmetry. The throat contains unstable circular orbits at radii extending from the ISCO down to the light ring. We show that they are related by conformal transformations to physical plunges and osculating trajectories. These orbits have angular momentum arbitrarily higher than that of ISCO. Using the conformal symmetry we compute analytically the radiation produced by the physical orbits. We also present a simple formula for the full self-force on such trajectories in terms of the self-force on circular orbits.

  14. On the Representation of Cloud Phase in Global Climate Models, and its Importance for Simulations of Climate Forcings and Feedbacks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Storelvmo, Trude; Sagoo, Navjit; Tan, Ivy

    2016-04-01

    Despite the growing effort in improving the cloud microphysical schemes in GCMs, most of this effort has not focused on improving the ability of GCMs to accurately simulate phase partitioning in mixed-phase clouds. Getting the relative proportion of liquid droplets and ice crystals in clouds right in GCMs is critical for the representation of cloud radiative forcings and cloud-climate feedbacks. Here, we first present satellite observations of cloud phase obtained by NASA's CALIOP instrument, and report on robust statistical relationships between cloud phase and several aerosols species that have been demonstrated to act as ice nuclei (IN) in laboratory studies. We then report on results from model intercomparison projects that reveal that GCMs generally underestimate the amount of supercooled liquid in clouds. For a selected GCM (NCAR 's CAM5), we thereafter show that the underestimate can be attributed to two main factors: i) the presence of IN in the mixed-phase temperature range, and ii) the Wegener-Bergeron-Findeisen process, which converts liquid to ice once ice crystals have formed. Finally, we show that adjusting these two processes such that the GCM's cloud phase is in agreement with the observed has a substantial impact on the simulated radiative forcing due to IN perturbations, as well as on the cloud-climate feedbacks and ultimately climate sensitivity simulated by the GCM.

  15. On the climate impacts from the volcanic and solar forcings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Varotsos, Costas A.; Lovejoy, Shaun

    2016-04-01

    The observed and the modelled estimations show that the main forcings on the atmosphere are of volcanic and solar origins, which act however in an opposite way. The former can be very strong and decrease at short time scales, whereas, the latter increase with time scale. On the contrary, the observed fluctuations in temperatures increase at long scales (e.g. centennial and millennial), and the solar forcings do increase with scale. The common practice is to reduce forcings to radiative equivalents assuming that their combination is linear. In order to clarify the validity of the linearity assumption and determine its range of validity, we systematically compare the statistical properties of solar only, volcanic only and combined solar and volcanic forcings over the range of time scales from one to 1000 years. Additionally, we attempt to investigate plausible reasons for the discrepancies observed between the measured and modeled anomalies of tropospheric temperatures in the tropics. For this purpose, we analyse tropospheric temperature anomalies for both the measured and modeled time series. The results obtained show that the measured temperature fluctuations reveal white noise behavior, while the modeled ones exhibit long-range power law correlations. We suggest that the persistent signal, should be removed from the modeled values in order to achieve better agreement with observations. Keywords: Scaling, Nonlinear variability, Climate system, Solar radiation

  16. Climate Forcing Data

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Records of changes in solar irradiance, volcanic aerosols, atmospheric trace gases, and other properties thought to influence climate in the past. Parameter keywords...

  17. The Borderlands and climate change: Chapter 10 in United States-Mexican Borderlands: Facing tomorrow's challenges through USGS science

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fitzpatrick, Joan; Gray, Floyd; Dubiel, Russell; Langman, Jeff; Moring, J. Bruce; Norman, Laura M.; Page, William R.; Parcher, Jean W.

    2013-01-01

    The prediction of global climate change in response to both natural forces and human activity is one of the defining issues of our times. The unprecedented observational capacity of modern earth-orbiting satellites coupled with the development of robust computational representations (models) of the Earth’s weather and climate systems afford us the opportunity to observe and investigate how these systems work now, how they have worked in the past, and how they will work in the future when forced in specific ways. In the most recent report on global climate change by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC; Solomon and others, 2007), analyses using multiple climate models support recent observations that the Earth’s climate is changing in response to a combination of natural and human-induced causes. These changes will be significant in the United States–Mexican border region, where the process of climate change affects all of the Borderlands challenge themes discussed in the preceding chapters. The dual possibilities of both significantly-changed climate and increasing variability in climate make it challenging to take full measure of the potential effects because the Borderlands already experience a high degree of interannual variability and climatological extremes.

  18. A 3D Visualization and Analysis Model of the Earth Orbit, Milankovitch Cycles and Insolation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kostadinov, Tihomir; Gilb, Roy

    2013-04-01

    Milankovitch theory postulates that periodic variability of Earth's orbital elements is a major climate forcing mechanism. Although controversies remain, ample geologic evidence supports the major role of the Milankovitch cycles in climate, e.g. glacial-interglacial cycles. There are three Milankovitch orbital parameters: orbital eccentricity (main periodicities of ~100,000 and ~400,000 years), precession (quantified as the longitude of perihelion, main periodicities 19,000-24,000 years) and obliquity of the ecliptic (Earth's axial tilt, main periodicity 41,000 years). The combination of these parameters controls the spatio-temporal patterns of incoming solar radiation (insolation) and the timing of the seasons with respect to perihelion, as well as season duration. The complex interplay of the Milankovitch orbital parameters on various time scales makes assessment and visualization of Earth's orbit and insolation variability challenging. It is difficult to appreciate the pivotal importance of Kepler's laws of planetary motion in controlling the effects of Milankovitch cycles on insolation patterns. These factors also make Earth-Sun geometry and Milankovitch theory difficult to teach effectively. Here, an astronomically precise and accurate Earth orbit visualization model is presented. The model offers 3D visualizations of Earth's orbital geometry, Milankovitch parameters and the ensuing insolation forcings. Both research and educational uses are envisioned for the model, which is developed in Matlab® as a user-friendly graphical user interface (GUI). We present the user with a choice between the Berger et al. (1978) and Laskar et al. (2004) astronomical solutions for eccentricity, obliquity and precession. A "demo" mode is also available, which allows the three Milankovitch parameters to be varied independently of each other (and over much larger ranges than the naturally occurring ones), so the user can isolate the effects of each parameter on orbital geometry

  19. Beyond the geodesic approximation: Conservative effects of the gravitational self-force in eccentric orbits around a Schwarzschild black hole

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barack, Leor; Sago, Norichika

    2011-01-01

    We study conservative finite-mass corrections to the motion of a particle in a bound (eccentric) strong-field orbit around a Schwarzschild black hole. We assume the particle's mass μ is much smaller than the black hole mass M, and explore post-geodesic corrections of O(μ/M). Our analysis uses numerical data from a recently developed code that outputs the Lorenz-gauge gravitational self-force (GSF) acting on the particle along the eccentric geodesic. First, we calculate the O(μ/M) conservative correction to the periastron advance of the orbit, as a function of the (gauge-dependent) semilatus rectum and eccentricity. A gauge-invariant description of the GSF precession effect is made possible in the circular-orbit limit, where we express the correction to the periastron advance as a function of the invariant azimuthal frequency. We compare this relation with results from fully nonlinear numerical-relativistic simulations. In order to obtain a gauge-invariant measure of the GSF effect for fully eccentric orbits, we introduce a suitable generalization of Detweiler's circular-orbit ''redshift'' invariant. We compute the O(μ/M) conservative correction to this invariant, expressed as a function of the two invariant frequencies that parametrize the orbit. Our results are in good agreement with results from post-Newtonian calculations in the weak-field regime, as we shall report elsewhere. The results of our study can inform the development of analytical models for the dynamics of strongly gravitating binaries. They also provide an accurate benchmark for future numerical-relativistic simulations.

  20. Orbit Determination of Spacecraft in Earth-Moon L1 and L2 Libration Point Orbits

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woodard, Mark; Cosgrove, Daniel; Morinelli, Patrick; Marchese, Jeff; Owens, Brandon; Folta, David

    2011-01-01

    The ARTEMIS mission, part of the THEMIS extended mission, is the first to fly spacecraft in the Earth-Moon Lissajous regions. In 2009, two of the five THEMIS spacecraft were redeployed from Earth-centered orbits to arrive in Earth-Moon Lissajous orbits in late 2010. Starting in August 2010, the ARTEMIS P1 spacecraft executed numerous stationkeeping maneuvers, initially maintaining a lunar L2 Lissajous orbit before transitioning into a lunar L1 orbit. The ARTEMIS P2 spacecraft entered a L1 Lissajous orbit in October 2010. In April 2011, both ARTEMIS spacecraft will suspend Lissajous stationkeeping and will be maneuvered into lunar orbits. The success of the ARTEMIS mission has allowed the science team to gather unprecedented magnetospheric measurements in the lunar Lissajous regions. In order to effectively perform lunar Lissajous stationkeeping maneuvers, the ARTEMIS operations team has provided orbit determination solutions with typical accuracies on the order of 0.1 km in position and 0.1 cm/s in velocity. The ARTEMIS team utilizes the Goddard Trajectory Determination System (GTDS), using a batch least squares method, to process range and Doppler tracking measurements from the NASA Deep Space Network (DSN), Berkeley Ground Station (BGS), Merritt Island (MILA) station, and United Space Network (USN). The team has also investigated processing of the same tracking data measurements using the Orbit Determination Tool Kit (ODTK) software, which uses an extended Kalman filter and recursive smoother to estimate the orbit. The orbit determination results from each of these methods will be presented and we will discuss the advantages and disadvantages associated with using each method in the lunar Lissajous regions. Orbit determination accuracy is dependent on both the quality and quantity of tracking measurements, fidelity of the orbit force models, and the estimation techniques used. Prior to Lissajous operations, the team determined the appropriate quantity of tracking

  1. The impact of international shipping on European air quality and climate forcing

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    van Aardenne, J. [European Environment Agency (EEA), Copenhagen (Denmark); Colette, A. [INERIS (France); Degraeuwe, B.; de Vlieger, I. [VITO (Belgium); Hammingh, P. [PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (Netherlands); Viana, M. [CSIC (Spain)

    2013-03-15

    This EEA Technical report provides an overview on the state of knowledge on the impact of international shipping in European waters to air quality and climate change. Based on literature review and model assessment studies information is provided on past and future emissions of air pollutants and greenhouse gases, monitoring of ship emissions, emission mitigation policies and impact on European air quality and radiative forcing. (Author)

  2. 20th-century industrial black carbon emissions altered Arctic climate forcing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McConnell, Joseph R; Edwards, Ross; Kok, Gregory L; Flanner, Mark G; Zender, Charles S; Saltzman, Eric S; Banta, J Ryan; Pasteris, Daniel R; Carter, Megan M; Kahl, Jonathan D W

    2007-09-07

    Black carbon (BC) from biomass and fossil fuel combustion alters chemical and physical properties of the atmosphere and snow albedo, yet little is known about its emission or deposition histories. Measurements of BC, vanillic acid, and non-sea-salt sulfur in ice cores indicate that sources and concentrations of BC in Greenland precipitation varied greatly since 1788 as a result of boreal forest fires and industrial activities. Beginning about 1850, industrial emissions resulted in a sevenfold increase in ice-core BC concentrations, with most change occurring in winter. BC concentrations after about 1951 were lower but increasing. At its maximum from 1906 to 1910, estimated surface climate forcing in early summer from BC in Arctic snow was about 3 watts per square meter, which is eight times the typical preindustrial forcing value.

  3. Future discharge drought across climate regions around the world modelled with a synthetic hydrological modelling approach forced by three general circulation models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wanders, N.; Van Lanen, H. A. J.

    2015-03-01

    Hydrological drought characteristics (drought in groundwater and streamflow) likely will change in the 21st century as a result of climate change. The magnitude and directionality of these changes and their dependency on climatology and catchment characteristics, however, is uncertain. In this study a conceptual hydrological model was forced by downscaled and bias-corrected outcome from three general circulation models for the SRES A2 emission scenario (GCM forced models), and the WATCH Forcing Data set (reference model). The threshold level method was applied to investigate drought occurrence, duration and severity. Results for the control period (1971-2000) show that the drought characteristics of each GCM forced model reasonably agree with the reference model for most of the climate types, suggesting that the climate models' results after post-processing produce realistic outcomes for global drought analyses. For the near future (2021-2050) and far future (2071-2100) the GCM forced models show a decrease in drought occurrence for all major climates around the world and increase of both average drought duration and deficit volume of the remaining drought events. The largest decrease in hydrological drought occurrence is expected in cold (D) climates where global warming results in a decreased length of the snow season and an increased precipitation. In the dry (B) climates the smallest decrease in drought occurrence is expected to occur, which probably will lead to even more severe water scarcity. However, in the extreme climate regions (desert and polar), the drought analysis for the control period showed that projections of hydrological drought characteristics are most uncertain. On a global scale the increase in hydrological drought duration and severity in multiple regions will lead to a higher impact of drought events, which should motivate water resource managers to timely anticipate the increased risk of more severe drought in groundwater and streamflow

  4. Beam-beam-induced orbit effects at LHC

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schaumann, M; Fernandez, R Alemany

    2014-01-01

    For high bunch intensities the long-range beam-beam interactions are strong enough to provoke effects on the orbit. As a consequence the closed orbit changes. The closed orbit of an unperturbed machine with respect to a machine where the beam-beam force becomes more and more important has been studied and the results are presented in this paper

  5. In and out of glacial extremes by way of dust‑climate feedbacks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shaffer, Gary; Lambert, Fabrice

    2018-03-01

    Mineral dust aerosols cool Earth directly by scattering incoming solar radiation and indirectly by affecting clouds and biogeochemical cycles. Recent Earth history has featured quasi-100,000-y, glacial‑interglacial climate cycles with lower/higher temperatures and greenhouse gas concentrations during glacials/interglacials. Global average, glacial maxima dust levels were more than 3 times higher than during interglacials, thereby contributing to glacial cooling. However, the timing, strength, and overall role of dust‑climate feedbacks over these cycles remain unclear. Here we use dust deposition data and temperature reconstructions from ice sheet, ocean sediment, and land archives to construct dust‑climate relationships. Although absolute dust deposition rates vary greatly among these archives, they all exhibit striking, nonlinear increases toward coldest glacial conditions. From these relationships and reconstructed temperature time series, we diagnose glacial‑interglacial time series of dust radiative forcing and iron fertilization of ocean biota, and use these time series to force Earth system model simulations. The results of these simulations show that dust‑climate feedbacks, perhaps set off by orbital forcing, push the system in and out of extreme cold conditions such as glacial maxima. Without these dust effects, glacial temperature and atmospheric CO2 concentrations would have been much more stable at higher, intermediate glacial levels. The structure of residual anomalies over the glacial‑interglacial climate cycles after subtraction of dust effects provides constraints for the strength and timing of other processes governing these cycles.

  6. A statistical mechanical approach for the computation of the climatic response to general forcings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. Lucarini

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available The climate belongs to the class of non-equilibrium forced and dissipative systems, for which most results of quasi-equilibrium statistical mechanics, including the fluctuation-dissipation theorem, do not apply. In this paper we show for the first time how the Ruelle linear response theory, developed for studying rigorously the impact of perturbations on general observables of non-equilibrium statistical mechanical systems, can be applied with great success to analyze the climatic response to general forcings. The crucial value of the Ruelle theory lies in the fact that it allows to compute the response of the system in terms of expectation values of explicit and computable functions of the phase space averaged over the invariant measure of the unperturbed state. We choose as test bed a classical version of the Lorenz 96 model, which, in spite of its simplicity, has a well-recognized prototypical value as it is a spatially extended one-dimensional model and presents the basic ingredients, such as dissipation, advection and the presence of an external forcing, of the actual atmosphere. We recapitulate the main aspects of the general response theory and propose some new general results. We then analyze the frequency dependence of the response of both local and global observables to perturbations having localized as well as global spatial patterns. We derive analytically several properties of the corresponding susceptibilities, such as asymptotic behavior, validity of Kramers-Kronig relations, and sum rules, whose main ingredient is the causality principle. We show that all the coefficients of the leading asymptotic expansions as well as the integral constraints can be written as linear function of parameters that describe the unperturbed properties of the system, such as its average energy. Some newly obtained empirical closure equations for such parameters allow to define such properties as an explicit function of the unperturbed forcing

  7. Elucidating dynamic responses of North Pacific fish populations to climatic forcing: Influence of life-history strategy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yatsu, A.; Aydin, K. Y.; King, J. R.; McFarlane, G. A.; Chiba, S.; Tadokoro, K.; Kaeriyama, M.; Watanabe, Y.

    2008-05-01

    In order to explore mechanistic linkages between low-frequency ocean/climate variability, and fish population responses, we undertook comparative studies of time-series of recruitment-related productivity and the biomass levels of fish stocks representing five life-history strategies in the northern North Pacific between the 1950s and the present. We selected seven species: Japanese sardine ( Sardinopus melanostictus) and California sardine ( Sardinopus sagax) (opportunistic strategists), walleye pollock ( Theragra chalcogramma, intermediate strategist), pink salmon ( Oncorhynchus gorbuscha, salmonic strategist), sablefish ( Anoplopoma fimbria) and Pacific halibut ( Hippoglossus stenolepis) (periodic strategists) and spiny dogfish ( Squalus acanthias, equilibrium strategist). The responses in terms of productivity of sardine, pink salmon, sablefish and halibut to climatic regime shifts were generally immediate, delayed, or no substantial responses depending on the particular regime shift year and fish stock (population). In walleye pollock, there were some periods of high productivity and low productivity, but not coincidental to climatic regime shifts, likely due to indirect climate forcing impacts on both bottom-up and top-down processes. Biomass of zooplankton and all fish stocks examined, except for spiny dogfish whose data were limited, indicated a decadal pattern with the most gradual changes in periodic strategists and most intensive and rapid changes in opportunistic strategists. Responses of sardine productivity to regime shifts were the most intense, probably due to the absence of density-dependent effects and the availability of refuges from predators when sardine biomass was extremely low. Spiny dogfish were least affected by environmental variability. Conversely, spiny dogfish are likely to withstand only modest harvest rates due to their very low intrinsic rate of increase. Thus, each life-history strategy type had a unique response to climatic

  8. Economic Value of Narrowing the Uncertainty in Climate Sensitivity: Decadal Change in Shortwave Cloud Radiative Forcing and Low Cloud Feedback

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wielicki, B. A.; Cooke, R. M.; Golub, A. A.; Mlynczak, M. G.; Young, D. F.; Baize, R. R.

    2016-12-01

    Several previous studies have been published on the economic value of narrowing the uncertainty in climate sensitivity (Cooke et al. 2015, Cooke et al. 2016, Hope, 2015). All three of these studies estimated roughly 10 Trillion U.S. dollars for the Net Present Value and Real Option Value at a discount rate of 3%. This discount rate is the nominal discount rate used in the U.S. Social Cost of Carbon Memo (2010). The Cooke et al studies approached this problem by examining advances in accuracy of global temperature measurements, while the Hope 2015 study did not address the type of observations required. While temperature change is related to climate sensitivity, large uncertainties of a factor of 3 in current anthropogenic radiative forcing (IPCC, 2013) would need to be solved for advanced decadal temperature change observations to assist the challenge of narrowing climate sensitivity. The present study takes a new approach by extending the Cooke et al. 2015,2016 papers to replace observations of temperature change to observations of decadal change in the effects of changing clouds on the Earths radiative energy balance, a measurement known as Cloud Radiative Forcing, or Cloud Radiative Effect. Decadal change in this observation is direclty related to the largest uncertainty in climate sensitivity which is cloud feedback from changing amount of low clouds, primarily low clouds over the world's oceans. As a result, decadal changes in shortwave cloud radiative forcing are more directly related to cloud feedback uncertainty which is the dominant uncertainty in climate sensitivity. This paper will show results for the new approach, and allow an examination of the sensitivity of economic value results to different observations used as a constraint on uncertainty in climate sensitivity. The analysis suggests roughly a doubling of economic value to 20 Trillion Net Present Value or Real Option Value at 3% discount rate. The higher economic value results from two changes: a

  9. Assessing the Impact of Earth Radiation Pressure Acceleration on Low-Earth Orbit Satellites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vielberg, Kristin; Forootan, Ehsan; Lück, Christina; Kusche, Jürgen; Börger, Klaus

    2017-04-01

    The orbits of satellites are influenced by several external forces. The main non-gravitational forces besides thermospheric drag, acting on the surface of satellites, are accelerations due to the Earth and Solar Radiation Pres- sure (SRP and ERP, respectively). The sun radiates visible and infrared light reaching the satellite directly, which causes the SRP. Earth also emits and reflects the sunlight back into space, where it acts on satellites. This is known as ERP acceleration. The influence of ERP increases with decreasing distance to the Earth, and for low-earth orbit (LEO) satellites ERP must be taken into account in orbit and gravity computations. Estimating acceler- ations requires knowledge about energy emitted from the Earth, which can be derived from satellite remote sensing data, and also by considering the shape and surface material of a satellite. In this sensitivity study, we assess ERP accelerations based on different input albedo and emission fields and their modelling for the satellite missions Challenging Mini-Satellite Payload (CHAMP) and Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE). As input fields, monthly 1°x1° products of Clouds and the Earth's Radiant En- ergy System (CERES), L3 are considered. Albedo and emission models are generated as latitude-dependent, as well as in terms of spherical harmonics. The impact of different albedo and emission models as well as the macro model and the altitude of satellites on ERP accelerations will be discussed.

  10. Climate extremes, land-climate feedbacks and land-use forcing at 1.5°C.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seneviratne, Sonia I; Wartenburger, Richard; Guillod, Benoit P; Hirsch, Annette L; Vogel, Martha M; Brovkin, Victor; van Vuuren, Detlef P; Schaller, Nathalie; Boysen, Lena; Calvin, Katherine V; Doelman, Jonathan; Greve, Peter; Havlik, Petr; Humpenöder, Florian; Krisztin, Tamas; Mitchell, Daniel; Popp, Alexander; Riahi, Keywan; Rogelj, Joeri; Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich; Sillmann, Jana; Stehfest, Elke

    2018-05-13

    This article investigates projected changes in temperature and water cycle extremes at 1.5°C of global warming, and highlights the role of land processes and land-use changes (LUCs) for these projections. We provide new comparisons of changes in climate at 1.5°C versus 2°C based on empirical sampling analyses of transient simulations versus simulations from the 'Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts' (HAPPI) multi-model experiment. The two approaches yield similar overall results regarding changes in climate extremes on land, and reveal a substantial difference in the occurrence of regional extremes at 1.5°C versus 2°C. Land processes mediated through soil moisture feedbacks and land-use forcing play a major role for projected changes in extremes at 1.5°C in most mid-latitude regions, including densely populated areas in North America, Europe and Asia. This has important implications for low-emissions scenarios derived from integrated assessment models (IAMs), which include major LUCs in ambitious mitigation pathways (e.g. associated with increased bioenergy use), but are also shown to differ in the simulated LUC patterns. Biogeophysical effects from LUCs are not considered in the development of IAM scenarios, but play an important role for projected regional changes in climate extremes, and are thus of high relevance for sustainable development pathways.This article is part of the theme issue 'The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels'. © 2018 The Authors.

  11. Climate extremes, land–climate feedbacks and land-use forcing at 1.5°C

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wartenburger, Richard; Guillod, Benoit P.; Hirsch, Annette L.; Vogel, Martha M.; Brovkin, Victor; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Schaller, Nathalie; Boysen, Lena; Calvin, Katherine V.; Doelman, Jonathan; Greve, Peter; Havlik, Petr; Humpenöder, Florian; Krisztin, Tamas; Mitchell, Daniel; Popp, Alexander; Riahi, Keywan; Rogelj, Joeri; Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich; Sillmann, Jana; Stehfest, Elke

    2018-01-01

    This article investigates projected changes in temperature and water cycle extremes at 1.5°C of global warming, and highlights the role of land processes and land-use changes (LUCs) for these projections. We provide new comparisons of changes in climate at 1.5°C versus 2°C based on empirical sampling analyses of transient simulations versus simulations from the ‘Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts’ (HAPPI) multi-model experiment. The two approaches yield similar overall results regarding changes in climate extremes on land, and reveal a substantial difference in the occurrence of regional extremes at 1.5°C versus 2°C. Land processes mediated through soil moisture feedbacks and land-use forcing play a major role for projected changes in extremes at 1.5°C in most mid-latitude regions, including densely populated areas in North America, Europe and Asia. This has important implications for low-emissions scenarios derived from integrated assessment models (IAMs), which include major LUCs in ambitious mitigation pathways (e.g. associated with increased bioenergy use), but are also shown to differ in the simulated LUC patterns. Biogeophysical effects from LUCs are not considered in the development of IAM scenarios, but play an important role for projected regional changes in climate extremes, and are thus of high relevance for sustainable development pathways. This article is part of the theme issue ‘The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels'. PMID:29610382

  12. Climate extremes, land-climate feedbacks and land-use forcing at 1.5°C

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Wartenburger, Richard; Guillod, Benoit P.; Hirsch, Annette L.; Vogel, Martha M.; Brovkin, Victor; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Schaller, Nathalie; Boysen, Lena; Calvin, Katherine V.; Doelman, Jonathan; Greve, Peter; Havlik, Petr; Humpenöder, Florian; Krisztin, Tamas; Mitchell, Daniel; Popp, Alexander; Riahi, Keywan; Rogelj, Joeri; Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich; Sillmann, Jana; Stehfest, Elke

    2018-05-01

    This article investigates projected changes in temperature and water cycle extremes at 1.5°C of global warming, and highlights the role of land processes and land-use changes (LUCs) for these projections. We provide new comparisons of changes in climate at 1.5°C versus 2°C based on empirical sampling analyses of transient simulations versus simulations from the `Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts' (HAPPI) multi-model experiment. The two approaches yield similar overall results regarding changes in climate extremes on land, and reveal a substantial difference in the occurrence of regional extremes at 1.5°C versus 2°C. Land processes mediated through soil moisture feedbacks and land-use forcing play a major role for projected changes in extremes at 1.5°C in most mid-latitude regions, including densely populated areas in North America, Europe and Asia. This has important implications for low-emissions scenarios derived from integrated assessment models (IAMs), which include major LUCs in ambitious mitigation pathways (e.g. associated with increased bioenergy use), but are also shown to differ in the simulated LUC patterns. Biogeophysical effects from LUCs are not considered in the development of IAM scenarios, but play an important role for projected regional changes in climate extremes, and are thus of high relevance for sustainable development pathways. This article is part of the theme issue `The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels'.

  13. Differential and enhanced response to climate forcing in diarrheal disease due to rotavirus across a megacity of the developing world.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martinez, Pamela P; King, Aaron A; Yunus, Mohammad; Faruque, A S G; Pascual, Mercedes

    2016-04-12

    The role of climate forcing in the population dynamics of infectious diseases has typically been revealed via retrospective analyses of incidence records aggregated across space and, in particular, over whole cities. Here, we focus on the transmission dynamics of rotavirus, the main diarrheal disease in infants and young children, within the megacity of Dhaka, Bangladesh. We identify two zones, the densely urbanized core and the more rural periphery, that respond differentially to flooding. Moreover, disease seasonality differs substantially between these regions, spanning variation comparable to the variation from tropical to temperate regions. By combining process-based models with an extensive disease surveillance record, we show that the response to climate forcing is mainly seasonal in the core, where a more endemic transmission resulting from an asymptomatic reservoir facilitates the response to the monsoons. The force of infection in this monsoon peak can be an order of magnitude larger than the force of infection in the more epidemic periphery, which exhibits little or no postmonsoon outbreak in a pattern typical of nearby rural areas. A typically smaller peak during the monsoon season nevertheless shows sensitivity to interannual variability in flooding. High human density in the core is one explanation for enhanced transmission during troughs and an associated seasonal monsoon response in this diarrheal disease, which unlike cholera, has not been widely viewed as climate-sensitive. Spatial demographic, socioeconomic, and environmental heterogeneity can create reservoirs of infection and enhance the sensitivity of disease systems to climate forcing, especially in the populated cities of the developing world.

  14. Harmonically excited orbital variations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morgan, T.

    1985-01-01

    Rephrasing the equations of motion for orbital maneuvers in terms of Lagrangian generalized coordinates instead of Newtonian rectangular cartesian coordinates can make certain harmonic terms in the orbital angular momentum vector more readily apparent. In this formulation the equations of motion adopt the form of a damped harmonic oscillator when torques are applied to the orbit in a variationally prescribed manner. The frequencies of the oscillator equation are in some ways unexpected but can nonetheless be exploited through resonant forcing functions to achieve large secular variations in the orbital elements. Two cases are discussed using a circular orbit as the control case: (1) large changes in orbital inclination achieved by harmonic excitation rather than one impulsive velocity change, and (2) periodic and secular changes to the longitude of the ascending node using both stable and unstable excitation strategies. The implications of these equations are also discussed for both artificial satellites and natural satellites. For the former, two utilitarian orbits are suggested, each exploiting a form of harmonic excitation. 5 refs

  15. Impact of preindustrial to present-day changes in short-lived pollutant emissions on atmospheric composition and climate forcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naik, Vaishali; Horowitz, Larry W.; Fiore, Arlene M.; Ginoux, Paul; Mao, Jingqiu; Aghedo, Adetutu M.; Levy, Hiram

    2013-07-01

    We describe and evaluate atmospheric chemistry in the newly developed Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory chemistry-climate model (GFDL AM3) and apply it to investigate the net impact of preindustrial (PI) to present (PD) changes in short-lived pollutant emissions (ozone precursors, sulfur dioxide, and carbonaceous aerosols) and methane concentration on atmospheric composition and climate forcing. The inclusion of online troposphere-stratosphere interactions, gas-aerosol chemistry, and aerosol-cloud interactions (including direct and indirect aerosol radiative effects) in AM3 enables a more complete representation of interactions among short-lived species, and thus their net climate impact, than was considered in previous climate assessments. The base AM3 simulation, driven with observed sea surface temperature (SST) and sea ice cover (SIC) over the period 1981-2007, generally reproduces the observed mean magnitude, spatial distribution, and seasonal cycle of tropospheric ozone and carbon monoxide. The global mean aerosol optical depth in our base simulation is within 5% of satellite measurements over the 1982-2006 time period. We conduct a pair of simulations in which only the short-lived pollutant emissions and methane concentrations are changed from PI (1860) to PD (2000) levels (i.e., SST, SIC, greenhouse gases, and ozone-depleting substances are held at PD levels). From the PI to PD, we find that changes in short-lived pollutant emissions and methane have caused the tropospheric ozone burden to increase by 39% and the global burdens of sulfate, black carbon, and organic carbon to increase by factors of 3, 2.4, and 1.4, respectively. Tropospheric hydroxyl concentration decreases by 7%, showing that increases in OH sinks (methane, carbon monoxide, nonmethane volatile organic compounds, and sulfur dioxide) dominate over sources (ozone and nitrogen oxides) in the model. Combined changes in tropospheric ozone and aerosols cause a net negative top

  16. The ocean's role in polar climate change: asymmetric Arctic and Antarctic responses to greenhouse gas and ozone forcing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marshall, John; Armour, Kyle C; Scott, Jeffery R; Kostov, Yavor; Hausmann, Ute; Ferreira, David; Shepherd, Theodore G; Bitz, Cecilia M

    2014-07-13

    In recent decades, the Arctic has been warming and sea ice disappearing. By contrast, the Southern Ocean around Antarctica has been (mainly) cooling and sea-ice extent growing. We argue here that interhemispheric asymmetries in the mean ocean circulation, with sinking in the northern North Atlantic and upwelling around Antarctica, strongly influence the sea-surface temperature (SST) response to anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing, accelerating warming in the Arctic while delaying it in the Antarctic. Furthermore, while the amplitude of GHG forcing has been similar at the poles, significant ozone depletion only occurs over Antarctica. We suggest that the initial response of SST around Antarctica to ozone depletion is one of cooling and only later adds to the GHG-induced warming trend as upwelling of sub-surface warm water associated with stronger surface westerlies impacts surface properties. We organize our discussion around 'climate response functions' (CRFs), i.e. the response of the climate to 'step' changes in anthropogenic forcing in which GHG and/or ozone-hole forcing is abruptly turned on and the transient response of the climate revealed and studied. Convolutions of known or postulated GHG and ozone-hole forcing functions with their respective CRFs then yield the transient forced SST response (implied by linear response theory), providing a context for discussion of the differing warming/cooling trends in the Arctic and Antarctic. We speculate that the period through which we are now passing may be one in which the delayed warming of SST associated with GHG forcing around Antarctica is largely cancelled by the cooling effects associated with the ozone hole. By mid-century, however, ozone-hole effects may instead be adding to GHG warming around Antarctica but with diminished amplitude as the ozone hole heals. The Arctic, meanwhile, responding to GHG forcing but in a manner amplified by ocean heat transport, may continue to warm at an accelerating rate.

  17. Assessing the role of North Atlantic freshwater forcing in millennial scale climate variability: a tropical Atlantic perspective

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dahl, Kristina A [Massachusetts Institute of Technology/Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution Joint Program, Woods Hole, MA (United States); Broccoli, Anthony J [Rutgers University, Department of Environmental Sciences, New Brunswick, NJ (United States); Stouffer, Ronald J [Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ (United States)

    2005-03-01

    This study analyzes a three-member ensemble of experiments, in which 0.1 Sv of freshwater was applied to the North Atlantic for 100 years in order to address the potential for large freshwater inputs in the North Atlantic to drive abrupt climate change. The model used is the GFDL R30 coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model. We focus in particular on the effects of this forcing on the tropical Atlantic region, which has been studied extensively by paleoclimatologists. In response to the freshwater forcing, North Atlantic meridional overturning circulation is reduced to roughly 40% by the end of the 100 year freshwater pulse. Consequently, the North Atlantic region cools by up to 8 C. The extreme cooling of the North Atlantic increases the pole-to-equator temperature gradient and requires more heat be provided to the high latitude Atlantic from the tropical Atlantic. To accommodate the increased heat requirement, the ITCZ shifts southward to allow for greater heat transport across the equator. Accompanying this southward ITCZ shift, the Northeast trade winds strengthen and precipitation patterns throughout the tropical Atlantic are altered. Specifically, precipitation in Northeast Brazil increases, and precipitation in Africa decreases slightly. In addition, we find that surface air temperatures warm over the tropical Atlantic and over Africa, but cool over northern South America. Sea-surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic warm slightly with larger warm anomalies developing in the thermocline. These responses are robust for each member of the ensemble, and have now been identified by a number of freshwater forcing studies using coupled OAGCMs. The model responses to freshwater forcing are generally smaller in magnitude, but have the same direction, as paleoclimate data from the Younger Dryas suggest. In certain cases, however, the model responses and the paleoclimate data directly contradict one another. Discrepancies between the model simulations

  18. Dynamic and reduced-dynamic precise orbit determination of satellites in low earth orbits

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Swatschina, P.

    2009-01-01

    The precise positioning of satellites in Low Earth Orbits (LEO) has become a key technology for advanced space missions. Dedicated satellite missions, such as CHAMP, GRACE and GOCE, that aim to map the Earths gravity field and its variation over time with unprecedented accuracy, initiated the demand for highly precise orbit solutions of LEO satellites. Furthermore, a wide range of additional science opportunities opens up with the capability to generate accurate LEO orbits. For all considered satellite missions, the primary measurement system for navigation is a spaceborne GPS receiver. The goal of this thesis is to establish and implement methods for Precise Orbit Determination (POD) of LEO satellites using GPS. Striving for highest precision using yet efficient orbit generation strategies, the attained orbit solutions are aimed to be competitive with the most advanced solutions of other institutions. Dynamic and reduced-dynamic orbit models provide the basic concepts of this work. These orbit models are subsequently adjusted to the highly accurate GPS measurements. The GPS measurements are introduced at the zero difference level in the ionosphere free linear combination. Appropriate procedures for GPS data screening and editing are established to detect erroneous data and to employ measurements of good quality only. For the dynamic orbit model a sophisticated force model, especially designed for LEO satellites, has been developed. In order to overcome the limitations that are induced by the deficiencies of the purely dynamical model, two different types of empirical parameters are introduced into the force model. These reduced-dynamic orbit models allow for the generation of much longer orbital arcs while preserving the spacecraft dynamics to the most possible extent. The two methods for reduced-dynamic orbit modeling are instantaneous velocity changes (pulses) or piecewise constant accelerations. For both techniques highly efficient modeling algorithms are

  19. Lyapunov Orbits in the Jupiter System Using Electrodynamic Tethers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bokelmann, Kevin; Russell, Ryan P.; Lantoine, Gregory

    2013-01-01

    Various researchers have proposed the use of electrodynamic tethers for power generation and capture from interplanetary transfers. The effect of tether forces on periodic orbits in Jupiter-satellite systems are investigated. A perturbation force is added to the restricted three-body problem model and a series of simplifications allows development of a conservative system that retains the Jacobi integral. Expressions are developed to find modified locations of equilibrium positions. Modified families of Lyapunov orbits are generated as functions of tether size and Jacobi integral. Zero velocity curves and stability analyses are used to evaluate the dynamical properties of tether-modified orbits.

  20. Searching Less Perturbed Circular Orbits for a Spacecraft Travelling around Europa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. P. S. Carvalho

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Space missions to visit the natural satellite of Jupiter, Europa, constitute an important topic in space activities today, because missions to this moon are under study now. Several considerations have to be made for these missions. The present paper searches for less perturbed circular orbits around Europa. This search is made based on the total effects of the perturbing forces over the time, evaluated by the integral of those forces over the time. This value depends on the dynamical model and on the orbit of the spacecraft. The perturbing forces considered are the third-body perturbation that comes from Jupiter and the J2, J3, and C22 terms of the gravitational potential of Europa. Several numerical studies are performed and the results show the locations of the less perturbed orbits. Using those results, it is possible to find near-circular frozen orbits with smaller amplitudes of variations of the orbital elements.

  1. Northern Hemisphere Winter Climate Response to Greenhouse Gas, Ozone, Solar and Volcanic Forcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shindell, Drew T.; Schmidt, Gavin A.; Miller, Ron L.; Rind, David; Hansen, James E. (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    The Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) climate/middle atmosphere model has been used to study the impacts of increasing greenhouse gases, polar ozone depletion, volcanic eruptions, and solar cycle variability. We focus on the projection of the induced responses onto Northern Hemisphere winter surface climate. Changes in the model's surface climate take place largely through enhancement of existing variability patterns, with greenhouse gases, polar ozone depletion and volcanic eruptions primarily affecting the Arctic Oscillation (AO) pattern. Perturbations descend from the stratosphere to the surface in the model by altering the propagation of planetary waves coming up from the surface, in accord with observational evidence. Models lacking realistic stratospheric dynamics fail to capture these wave flux changes. The results support the conclusion that the stratosphere plays a crucial role in recent AO trends. We show that in our climate model, while ozone depletion has a significant effect, greenhouse gas forcing is the only one capable of causing the large, sustained increase in the AO observed over recent decades. This suggests that the AO trend, and a concurrent strengthening of the stratospheric vortex over the Arctic, are very likely anthropogenic in origin.

  2. A record of astronomically forced climate change in a late Ordovician (Sandbian) deep marine sequence, Ordos Basin, North China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fang, Qiang; Wu, Huaichun; Hinnov, Linda A.; Wang, Xunlian; Yang, Tianshui; Li, Haiyan; Zhang, Shihong

    2016-07-01

    The late Ordovician Pingliang Formation on the southwestern margin of the Ordos Basin, North China, consists of rhythmic alternations of shale, limestone, and siliceous beds. To explore the possible astronomical forcing preserved in this lithological record, continuous lithological rank and magnetic susceptibility (MS) stratigraphic series were obtained from a 34 m thick section of the Pingliang Formation at Guanzhuang. Power spectral analysis of the MS and rank series reveal 85.5 cm to 124 cm, 23 cm to 38 cm, and 15 cm to 27 cm thick sedimentary cycles that in ratio match that of late Ordovician short eccentricity, obliquity and precession astronomical cycles. The power spectrum of the MS time series, calibrated to interpreted short orbital eccentricity cycles, aligns with spectral peaks to astronomical parameters, including 95 kyr short orbital eccentricity, 35.3 kyr and 30.6 kyr obliquity, and 19.6 kyr and 16.3 kyr precession cycles. The 15 cm to 27 cm thick limestone-shale couplets mainly represent precession cycles, and siliceous bed deposition may be related to both precession and obliquity forcing. We propose that precession-forced sea-level fluctuations mainly controlled production of lime mud in a shallow marine environment, and transport to the basin. Precession and obliquity controlled biogenic silica productivity, and temperature-dependent preservation of silica may have been influenced by obliquity forcing.

  3. Untangling Topographic and Climatic Forcing of Earthflow Motion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Finnegan, N. J.; Nereson, A. L.

    2017-12-01

    . They also suggest that earthflow motion is more sensitive to pore-fluid pressure forcing than to topographic forcing and challenge the view that attenuation of pore fluid pressure with depth renders large landslides relatively insensitive to high frequency climate variability.

  4. Lessons on climate sensitivity from past climate changes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    von der Heydt, A.S.; Dijkstra, H.A.; van de Wal, R.S.W.; Caballero, R.; Crucifix, M.; Foster, G.L.; Huber, M.; Kohler, P.; Rohling, E.; Valdes, P.J.; Ashwin, P.; Bathiany, S.; Berends, T.; van Bree, L.G.J.; Ditlevsen, P.; Ghil, M.; Haywood, A.; Katzav, J.K.; Lohmann, G.; Lohmann, J.; Lucarini, V.; Marzocchi, A.; Palike, H.; Ruvalcaba Baroni, I.; Simon, D.; Sluijs, A.; Stap, L.B.; Tantet, A.; Viebahn, J.; Ziegler, M.

    2016-01-01

    Over the last decade, our understanding of climate sensitivity has improved considerably. The climate system shows variability on many timescales, is subject to non-stationary forcing and it is most likely out of equilibrium with the changes in the radiative forcing. Slow and fast feedbacks

  5. Cloud forming properties of ambient aerosol in the Netherlands and resultant shortwave radiative forcing of climate

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Khlystov, A.

    1998-01-01

    This thesis discusses properties of ambient aerosols in the Netherlands which are controlling the magnitude of the local aerosol radiative forcing. Anthropogenic aerosols influence climate by changing the radiative transfer through the atmosphere via two effects, one is direct and a second

  6. Climate variability and physical forcing of the food webs and the carbon budget on panarctic shelves

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Carmack, Eddy; Barber, David; Christensen, Jens

    2006-01-01

    , which differ for different properties and shelf types, as do the likely responses; that is, the distributions of nutrients, organic carbon, freshwater, sediments, and trace minerals will all respond differently to climate forcing. A fundamental conclusion is that the changes associated with light...

  7. The potential for cold climate conditions and permafrost in Forsmark in the next 60 000 years

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brandefelt, Jenny; Naeslund, Jens-Ove; Zhang, Qiong; Hartikainen, Juha

    2013-05-01

    This report presents results of a study devoted to extend the current knowledge of the climate in Sweden in the next ∼60,000 years (60 ka). Specifically, the potential of cold climate and permafrost development in south-central Sweden, and in the Forsmark region, over this time horizon was investigated. The climate system is an interactive system consisting of five major components: the atmosphere, the hydrosphere, the cryo sphere, the land surface and the biosphere, forced or influenced by various external forcing mechanisms, of which the most important is the Sun. Also the direct effect of human activities on the climate system is considered an external forcing. The latitudinal and seasonal distribution of incoming solar radiation (insolation) varies on millennial time scales due to variations in the Earth's orbit and axial tilt. These variations, together with variations in the atmospheric CO 2 concentration, are viewed as two main factors in determining the climate variation between interglacial (warmer) and glacial (colder) climates. Summer insolation at high northern latitudes is at a minimum 17 ka and 54 ka after present (AP). These periods were therefore identified as potential future periods of cold climate conditions in high northern latitudes in general and in south-central Sweden in particular. Due to human emissions of carbon to the atmosphere, the atmospheric CO 2 concentration is currently 392 ppmv (2011 AD), a substantial increase as compared to the range of atmospheric CO 2 concentrations of 180-295 ppmv found in ice cores for the last 400 ka. The future atmospheric CO 2 concentration is determined by i) future human carbon emissions to the atmosphere, ii) possible emissions due to feedbacks in the climate system, and iii) by the global carbon cycle. To investigate the potential of cold climate conditions in south-central Sweden in the next 60 ka the future air temperature in Forsmark was estimated based on simulations with an Earth system model

  8. Forced Climate Changes in West Antarctica and the Indo-Pacific by Northern Hemisphere Ice Sheet Topography

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, T. R.; Roberts, W. H. G.; Steig, E. J.; Cuffey, K. M.; Markle, B. R.; White, J. W. C.

    2017-12-01

    The behavior of the Indo-Pacific climate system across the last deglaciation is widely debated. Resolving these debates requires long term and continuous climate proxy records. Here, we use an ultra-high resolution and continuous water isotope record from an ice core in the Pacific sector of West Antarctica. In conjunction with the HadCM3 coupled ocean-atmosphere GCM, we demonstrate that the climate of both West Antarctica and the Indo-Pacific were substantially altered during the last deglaciation by the same forcing mechanism. Critically, these changes are not dependent on ENSO strength, but rather the location of deep tropical convection, which shifts at 16 ka in response to climate perturbations induced by the Laurentide Ice Sheet. The changed rainfall patterns in the tropics explain the deglacial shift from expanded-grasslands to rainforest-dominated ecosystems in Indonesia. High-frequency climate variability in the Southern Hemisphere is also changed, through a tropical Pacific teleconnection link dependent on the propogration of Rossby Waves.

  9. Seasonal changes in the human alteration of fire regimes beyond the climate forcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fréjaville, Thibaut; Curt, Thomas

    2017-03-01

    Human activities have altered fire regimes for millennia by suppressing or enhancing natural fire activity. However, whether these anthropogenic pressures on fire activity have exceeded and will surpass climate forcing still remains uncertain. We tested if, how and the extent to which seasonal fire activity in southern France has recently (1976-2009) deviated from climate-expected trends. The latter were simulated using an ensemble of detrended fire-climate models. We found both seasonal and regional contrasts in climatic effects through a mixture of drought-driven and fuel-limited fire regimes. Dry contemporary conditions chiefly drove fire frequency and burned area, although higher fire activity was related to wetter conditions in the last three years. Surprisingly, the relative importance of preceding wet conditions was higher in winter than in summer, illustrating the strong potential dependency of regional fire-climate relationships on the human use and control of fires. In the Mediterranean mountains, warm winters and springs favour extensive fires in the following dry summer. These results highlight that increasing dryness with climate change could have antagonistic effects on fire regime by leading to larger fires in summer (moisture-limited), but lower fire activity in winter (fuel-limited fire regime). Furthermore, fire trends have significantly diverged from climatic expectations, with a strong negative alteration in fire activity in the Mediterranean lowlands and the summer burned area in the mountains. In contrast, alteration of winter fire frequency in the Mediterranean and Temperate mountains has shifted from positive to negative (or null) trends during the mid-1990s, a period when fire suppression policy underwent major revisions. Our findings demonstrate that changes in land-use and fire suppression policy have probably exceeded the strength of climate change effects on changing fire regime in southern Europe, making regional predictions of future

  10. Experimental investigation of the abrasive crown dynamics in orbital atherectomy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Yihao; Belmont, Barry; Shih, Albert J

    2016-07-01

    Orbital atherectomy is a catheter-based minimally invasive procedure to modify the plaque within atherosclerotic arteries using a diamond abrasive crown. This study was designed to investigate the crown motion and its corresponding contact force with the vessel. To this end, a transparent arterial tissue-mimicking phantom made of polyvinyl chloride was developed, a high-speed camera and image processing technique were utilized to visualize and quantitatively analyze the crown motion in the vessel phantom, and a piezoelectric dynamometer measured the forces on the phantom during the procedure. Observed under typical orbital atherectomy rotational speeds of 60,000, 90,000, and 120,000rpm in a 4.8mm caliber vessel phantom, the crown motion was a combination of high-frequency rotation at 1000, 1500, and 1660.4-1866.1Hz and low-frequency orbiting at 18, 38, and 40Hz, respectively. The measured forces were also composed of these high and low frequencies, matching well with the rotation of the eccentric crown and the associated orbital motion. The average peak force ranged from 0.1 to 0.4N at different rotational speeds. Copyright © 2016 IPEM. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Global Climate Forcing from Albedo Change Caused by Large-scale Deforestation and Reforestation: Quantification and Attribution of Geographic Variation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiao, Tong; Williams, Christopher A.; Ghimire, Bardan; Masek, Jeffrey; Gao, Feng; Schaaf, Crystal

    2017-01-01

    Large-scale deforestation and reforestation have contributed substantially to historical and contemporary global climate change in part through albedo-induced radiative forcing, with meaningful implications for forest management aiming to mitigate climate change. Associated warming or cooling varies widely across the globe due to a range of factors including forest type, snow cover, and insolation, but resulting geographic variation remain spoorly described and has been largely based on model assessments. This study provides an observation-based approach to quantify local and global radiative forcings from large-scale deforestation and reforestation and further examines mechanisms that result in the spatial heterogeneity of radiative forcing. We incorporate a new spatially and temporally explicit land cover-specific albedo product derived from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer with a historical land use data set (Land Use Harmonization product). Spatial variation in radiative forcing was attributed to four mechanisms, including the change in snow-covered albedo, change in snow-free albedo, snow cover fraction, and incoming solar radiation. We find an albedo-only radiative forcing (RF) of -0.819 W m(exp -2) if year 2000 forests were completely deforested and converted to croplands. Albedo RF from global reforestation of present-day croplands to recover year 1700 forests is estimated to be 0.161 W m)exp -2). Snow-cover fraction is identified as the primary factor in determining the spatial variation of radiative forcing in winter, while the magnitude of the change in snow-free albedo is the primary factor determining variations in summertime RF. Findings reinforce the notion that, for conifers at the snowier high latitudes, albedo RF diminishes the warming from forest loss and the cooling from forest gain more so than for other forest types, latitudes, and climate settings.

  12. Climatic driving forces in inter-annual variation of global FPAR

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peng, Dailiang; Liu, Liangyun; Yang, Xiaohua; Zhou, Bin

    2012-09-01

    Fraction of Absorbed Photosynthetically Active Radiation (FPAR) characterizes vegetation canopy functioning and its energy absorption capacity. In this paper, we focus on climatic driving forces in inter-annual variation of global FPAR from 1982 to 2006 by Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN-Monthly) data. Using FPAR-Simple Ratio Vegetation Index (SR) relationship, Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS) Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) was used to estimate FPAR at the global scale. The correlation between inter-annual variation of FPAR and temperature, precipitation derived from GHCN-Monthly was examined, during the periods of March-May (MAM), June-August (JJA), September-November (SON), and December-February (DJF) over from 1982 to 2006. The analysis of climatic influence on global FPAR revealed the significant correlation with temperature and precipitation in some meteorological stations area, and a more significant correlation with precipitation was found than which with temperature. Some stations in the regions between 30° N and 60° N and around 30° S in South America, where the annual FPAR variation showed a significant positive correlation with temperature (P forest of Africa and Amazon during the dry season of JJA and SON.

  13. Climate forcing due to optimization of maximal leaf conductance in subtropical vegetation under rising CO2

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boer, H.J. de; Lammertsma, E.I.; Wagner-Cremer, F.; Dilcher, D.L.; Wassen, M.J.; Dekker, S.C.

    2011-01-01

    Plant physiological adaptation to the global rise in atmospheric CO 2 concentration (CO2) is identified as a crucial climatic forcing. To optimize functioning under rising CO2, plants reduce the diffusive stomatal conductance of their leaves (gs) dynamically by closing stomata and structurally by

  14. Emerging patterns of simulated regional climatic changes for the 21st century due to anthropogenic forcings

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Giorgi, Filippo; Whetton, Peter H.; Jones, Richard G.

    2001-01-01

    We analyse temperature and precipitation changes for the late decades of the 21st century (with respect to present day conditions) over 23 land regions of the world from 18 recent transient, climate change experiments with coupled atmosphere-ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs). The analysis...... involves two different forcing scenarios and nine models, and it focuses on model agreement in the simulated regional changes for the summer and winter seasons. While to date very few conclusions have been presented on regional climatic changes, mostly limited to some broad latitudinal bands, our analysis...

  15. The potential for cold climate conditions and permafrost in Forsmark in the next 60 000 years

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brandefelt, Jenny; Naeslund, Jens-Ove [Svensk Kaernbraenslehantering, Stockholm (Sweden); Zhang, Qiong [Dept. of Meteorology, Stockholm Univ., Stockholm (Sweden); Hartikainen, Juha [School of Engineering, Aalto Univ., Aalto (Finland)

    2013-05-15

    This report presents results of a study devoted to extend the current knowledge of the climate in Sweden in the next {approx}60,000 years (60 ka). Specifically, the potential of cold climate and permafrost development in south-central Sweden, and in the Forsmark region, over this time horizon was investigated. The climate system is an interactive system consisting of five major components: the atmosphere, the hydrosphere, the cryo sphere, the land surface and the biosphere, forced or influenced by various external forcing mechanisms, of which the most important is the Sun. Also the direct effect of human activities on the climate system is considered an external forcing. The latitudinal and seasonal distribution of incoming solar radiation (insolation) varies on millennial time scales due to variations in the Earth's orbit and axial tilt. These variations, together with variations in the atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentration, are viewed as two main factors in determining the climate variation between interglacial (warmer) and glacial (colder) climates. Summer insolation at high northern latitudes is at a minimum 17 ka and 54 ka after present (AP). These periods were therefore identified as potential future periods of cold climate conditions in high northern latitudes in general and in south-central Sweden in particular. Due to human emissions of carbon to the atmosphere, the atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentration is currently 392 ppmv (2011 AD), a substantial increase as compared to the range of atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentrations of 180-295 ppmv found in ice cores for the last 400 ka. The future atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentration is determined by i) future human carbon emissions to the atmosphere, ii) possible emissions due to feedbacks in the climate system, and iii) by the global carbon cycle. To investigate the potential of cold climate conditions in south-central Sweden in the next 60 ka the future air temperature in Forsmark was estimated based on

  16. {beta}-decay studies at the N=28 shell closure: indications for a weakening of the spin-orbit force far from stability?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Grevy, S. [Laboratoire de Physique Corpusculaire de Caen, IN2P3-CNRS, ENSICAEN et Universite de Caen, F-14050 Caen Cedex (France)]. E-mail: grevy@in2p3.fr; Angelique, J.C.; Baumann, P.; Borcea, C.; Buta, A.; Canchel, G.; Catford, W.N.; Courtin, S.; Daugas, J.M.; Oliveira, F. de; Dessagne, P.; Dlouhy, Z.; Knipper, A.; Kratz, K.L.; Lecolley, F.R.; Lecouey, J.L.; Lehrsenneau, G.; Lewitowicz, M.; Lienard, E.; Lukyanov, S.; Marechal, F.; Miehe, C.; Mrazek, J.; Negoita, F.; Orr, N.A.; Pantelica, D.; Penionzhkevich, Y.; Peter, J.; Pfeiffer, B.; Pietri, S.; Poirier, E.; Sorlin, O.; Stanoiu, M.; Stefan, I.; Stodel, C.; Timis, C

    2004-12-27

    A {beta}-decay experiment on nuclei in the region of N=28 has been performed at the GANIL facility. New measured half-lives for the Si isotopes from N=25 to N=28 are reported and discussed in the light of the deformation occurring in this region. Comparison with QRPA calculations suggests that a weakening of the spin-orbit force occurs for the very neutron-rich Si isotopes.

  17. Lake Baikal climatic record between 310 and 50 ky BP: Interplay between diatoms, watershed weathering and orbital forcing

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Grygar, Tomáš; Bláhová, Anna; Hradil, David; Bezdička, Petr; Kadlec, Jaroslav; Schnabl, Petr; Swann, G.; Oberhänsli, H.

    2007-01-01

    Roč. 250, 1-4 (2007), s. 50-67 ISSN 0031-0182 R&D Projects: GA AV ČR IAA3032401 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z40320502; CEZ:AV0Z3013912 Keywords : lake sediments * climate change * spectroscopy Subject RIV: CA - Inorganic Chemistry Impact factor: 2.162, year: 2007

  18. Climate evolution on the terrestrial planets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kasting, J.F.; Toon, O.B.

    1989-01-01

    The present comparative evaluation of the long-term evolution of the Venus, earth, and Mars climates suggests that the earth's climate has remained temperate over most of its history despite a secular solar luminosity increase in virtue of a negative-feedback cycle based on atmospheric CO 2 levels and climate. The examination of planetary climate histories suggests that an earth-sized planet should be able to maintain liquid water on its surface at orbital distances in the 0.9-1.5 AU range, comparable to the orbit of Mars; this, in turn, implies that there may be many other habitable planets within the Galaxy

  19. GPS Based Reduced-Dynamic Orbit Determination for Low Earth Orbiters with Ambiguity Fixing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yang Yang

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available With the ever-increasing number of satellites in Low Earth Orbit (LEO for scientific missions, the precise determination of the position and velocity of the satellite is a necessity. GPS (Global Positioning System based reduced-dynamic orbit determination (RPOD method is commonly used in the post processing with high precision. This paper presents a sequential RPOD strategy for LEO satellite in the framework of Extended Kalman Filter (EKF. Precise Point Positioning (PPP technique is used to process the GPS observations, with carrier phase ambiguity resolution using Integer Phase Clocks (IPCs products. A set of GRACE (Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment mission data is used to test and validate the RPOD performance. Results indicate that orbit determination accuracy could be improved by 15% in terms of 3D RMS error in comparison with traditional RPOD method with float ambiguity solutions.

  20. Insight to forcing of late Quaternary climate change from aeolian dust archives in eastern Australia

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGowan, H. A.; Marx, S.; Soderholm, J.; Denholm, J.; Petherick, L.

    2010-12-01

    The Australian continent is the largest source of dust in the Southern Hemisphere. Historical dust emissions records display inter-annual variability in response to the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon and inter-decadal variability which has been linked to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). These reflect change in hydrometeorology of the continents two major dust source regions, the Murray-Darling Basin and the Lake Eyre Basin. The historical records do not allow longer term variability of ENSO and the PDO and their influence on Australia to be quantified. Importantly, sub-Milankovitch centennial to multi-millennial scale climate cycles and their impacts are not represented in the historical records. In this paper we present summary results from the analysis of two aeolain dust records spanning 7 ka and 45 ka. These were developed from ombrotrophic mire and lacustrine sediment cores collected from the Australian Alps and southeast Queensland. Both sites are located in the southeast Australian dust transport pathway and provide rare insight to forcings of climate variability and its impacts on eastern Australia through the late Quaternary. Age controls for the cores were established using 14C and 210Pb dating [McGowan et al. 2008, 2010]. The cores were sliced into 2 to 5 mm segments with a sub-sample of each segment combusted at 450°C for 12 hrs to destroy organic material and allow recovery of mineral dust. Geochemical fingerprinting of the global climate variability and the impact of forcings originating from the North Hemisphere. These results highlight the potential for adverse impacts on the climate of Australia by disturbance to North Atlantic Ocean circulation. References Marx, S. K., et al. 2005: Provenance of long travelled dust determined with ultra trace element composition: A pilot study with samples from New Zealand glaciers. Earth Surf. Processes Landforms, 30, 699-716. McGowan, H.A., et al. 2008: An ultra-high resolution record of

  1. Paleoclimate from ice cores : abrupt climate change and the prolonged Holocene

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    White, J.W.C.

    2001-01-01

    Ice cores provide valuable information about the Earth's past climates and past environments. They can also help in predicting future climates and the nature of climate change. Recent findings in ice cores have shown large and abrupt climate changes in the past. This paper addressed abrupt climate changes and the peculiar nature of the Holocene. An abrupt climate change is a shift of 5 degrees C in mean annual temperature in less than 50 years. This is considered to be the most threatening aspect of potential future climate change since it leaves very little time for adaptation by humans or any other part of the Earth's ecosystem. This paper also discussed the arrival of the next glacial period. In the past 50 years, scientists have recognized the importance of the Earth's orbit around the sun in pacing the occurrence of large ice sheets. The timing of orbital forcing suggests that the Earth is overdue for the next major glaciation. The reason for this anomaly was discussed. Abrupt climate shifts seem to be caused by mode changes in sensitive points in the climate system, such as the North Atlantic Deep Water Formation and its impact on sea ice cover in the North Atlantic. These changes have been observed in ice cores in Greenland but they are not restricted to Greenland. Evidence from Antarctic ice cores suggest that abrupt climate change may also occur in the Southern Hemisphere. The Vostok ice core in Antarctica indicates that the 11,000 year long interglacial period that we are in right now is longer than the previous four interglacial periods. The Holocene epoch is unique because both methane and carbon dioxide rise in the last 6,000 years, an atypical response from these greenhouse gases during an interglacial period. It was suggested that the rise in methane can be attributed to human activities. 13 refs., 2 figs

  2. Meeting the Radiative Forcing Targets of the Representative Concentration Pathways with Agricultural Climate Impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kyle, P.; Müller, C.; Calvin, K. V.; Thomson, A. M.

    2013-12-01

    The Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) have formed the basis for much of the current scientific understanding of future climate change impacts and mitigation. However, the emissions scenarios underlying the RCPs were produced by integrated assessment models that did not include impacts of future climate change on the modeled evolution of the agricultural and energy systems. Given the prominent role of bioenergy in greenhouse gas emissions mitigation, and given the importance of land-use-related emissions in determining future atmospheric CO2 concentrations, it is possible that agricultural climate impacts may cause significant changes to the means and costs of mitigating greenhouse gas emissions. This study builds on several international modeling exercises aimed at improving understanding of climate change impacts--CMIP-5 and ISI-MIP--that have generated global gridded climate impacts on yields of major agricultural crops in each of the four RCPs. We use the climate outcomes from the HadGEM2-ES climate model, and the agricultural yield outcomes from the LPJmL crop growth model to inform inputs to the GCAM integrated assessment model, allowing analysis of how agricultural climate impacts may affect the long-term global and regional strategies for achieving the greenhouse gas concentration pathways of the RCPs. Our results indicate that for this combination of models and emissions scenarios, strongly negative climate impacts on several major commodity classes--prominently cereals and oil seeds, and particularly in the high-radiative-forcing RCPs--lead to a long-term increase in cropland and therefore land-use-related CO2 emissions. All else equal, this increases the emissions mitigation burden on the rest of the system, and therefore increases total net costs of emissions mitigation. However, the future climate change impacts on C4 bioenergy crops tend to be positive, limiting the shock of agricultural climate impacts on the modeled energy supply and

  3. Force majeure: Will climate change affect our ability to attain Good Environmental Status for marine biodiversity?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elliott, Michael; Borja, Ángel; McQuatters-Gollop, Abigail; Mazik, Krysia; Birchenough, Silvana; Andersen, Jesper H; Painting, Suzanne; Peck, Myron

    2015-06-15

    The EU Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD) requires that Good Environmental Status (GEnS), is achieved for European seas by 2020. These may deviate from GEnS, its 11 Descriptors, targets and baselines, due to endogenic managed pressures (from activities within an area) and externally due to exogenic unmanaged pressures (e.g. climate change). Conceptual models detail the likely or perceived changes expected on marine biodiversity and GEnS Descriptors in the light of climate change. We emphasise that marine management has to accommodate 'shifting baselines' caused by climate change particularly during GEnS monitoring, assessment and management and 'unbounded boundaries' given the migration and dispersal of highly-mobile species. We suggest climate change may prevent GEnS being met, but Member States may rebut legal challenges by claiming that this is outside its control, force majeure or due to 'natural causes' (Article 14 of the MSFD). The analysis is relevant to management of other global seas. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Update on orbital reconstruction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Chien-Tzung; Chen, Yu-Ray

    2010-08-01

    Orbital trauma is common and frequently complicated by ocular injuries. The recent literature on orbital fracture is analyzed with emphasis on epidemiological data assessment, surgical timing, method of approach and reconstruction materials. Computed tomographic (CT) scan has become a routine evaluation tool for orbital trauma, and mobile CT can be applied intraoperatively if necessary. Concomitant serious ocular injury should be carefully evaluated preoperatively. Patients presenting with nonresolving oculocardiac reflex, 'white-eyed' blowout fracture, or diplopia with a positive forced duction test and CT evidence of orbital tissue entrapment require early surgical repair. Otherwise, enophthalmos can be corrected by late surgery with a similar outcome to early surgery. The use of an endoscope-assisted approach for orbital reconstruction continues to grow, offering an alternative method. Advances in alloplastic materials have improved surgical outcome and shortened operating time. In this review of modern orbital reconstruction, several controversial issues such as surgical indication, surgical timing, method of approach and choice of reconstruction material are discussed. Preoperative fine-cut CT image and thorough ophthalmologic examination are key elements to determine surgical indications. The choice of surgical approach and reconstruction materials much depends on the surgeon's experience and the reconstruction area. Prefabricated alloplastic implants together with image software and stereolithographic models are significant advances that help to more accurately reconstruct the traumatized orbit. The recent evolution of orbit reconstruction improves functional and aesthetic results and minimizes surgical complications.

  5. Climate change forces new ecological states in tropical Andean lakes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Neal Michelutti

    Full Text Available Air temperatures in the tropical Andes have risen at an accelerated rate relative to the global average over recent decades. However, the effects of climate change on Andean lakes, which are vital to sustaining regional biodiversity and serve as an important water resource to local populations, remain largely unknown. Here, we show that recent climate changes have forced alpine lakes of the equatorial Andes towards new ecological and physical states, in close synchrony to the rapid shrinkage of glaciers regionally. Using dated sediment cores from three lakes in the southern Sierra of Ecuador, we record abrupt increases in the planktonic thalassiosiroid diatom Discostella stelligera from trace abundances to dominance within the phytoplankton. This unprecedented shift occurs against the backdrop of rising temperatures, changing atmospheric pressure fields, and declining wind speeds. Ecological restructuring in these lakes is linked to warming and/or enhanced water column stratification. In contrast to seasonally ice-covered Arctic and temperate alpine counterparts, aquatic production has not increased universally with warming, and has even declined in some lakes, possibly because enhanced thermal stability impedes the re-circulation of hypolimnetic nutrients to surface waters. Our results demonstrate that these lakes have already passed important ecological thresholds, with potentially far-reaching consequences for Andean water resources.

  6. Sensitivity of Pliocene Arctic climate to orbital forcing, atmospheric CO2 and sea ice albedo parameterisation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howell, Fergus W.; Haywood, Alan M.; Dowsett, Harry J.; Pickering, Steven J.

    2016-01-01

    General circulation model (GCM) simulations of the mid-Pliocene Warm Period (mPWP, 3.264 to 3.025 Myr ago) do not reproduce the magnitude of Northern Hemisphere high latitude surface air and sea surface temperature (SAT and SST) warming that proxy data indicate. There is also large uncertainty regarding the state of sea ice cover in the mPWP. Evidence for both perennial and seasonal mPWP Arctic sea ice is found through analyses of marine sediments, whilst in a multi-model ensemble of mPWP climate simulations, half of the ensemble simulated ice-free summer Arctic conditions. Given the strong influence that sea ice exerts on high latitude temperatures, an understanding of the nature of mPWP Arctic sea ice would be highly beneficial.

  7. The Influence of Volcanic and Solar forcings on the Freshwater Budget of the Arctic Ocean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davies, F. J.; Goosse, H.; Renssen, H.

    2012-04-01

    In recent decades the quantity and spatial extent of measurements for the atmospheric, terrestrial and oceanic sources and sinks, that comprise the freshwater budget of the Arctic Ocean has increased. This has been driven by a need to understand the variability of the freshwater budget, as a response to anthropogenically induced climate change, and the effects upon climate. However, the natural variability of the system due to specific forcings over a number of temporal scales, is yet to be clearly defined. This is due to several factors. A lack of a reliable freshwater proxy, coupled with a truncated instrumental record, make it difficult to elicit meaningful trends from the data that is currently available. In addition, modelling studies have not taken up the opportunity to evaluate the historical freshwater budget, instead focusing all their efforts in ascertaining the future response of the system. Therefore, when it comes to understanding the role individual forcings, such as volcanic and solar, have upon the natural variability of the freshwater budget, a noticeable void is evident. In order to understand the natural variations over the recent past one has to first consider the effects that natural forcings have upon the system, both independently and simultaneously. Therefore, in this study we seek to understand the effects solar and volcanic forcings have upon the freshwater budget of the Arctic, and by association, the climate. Here we present results of a series of transient simulations spanning the last 2000 years, performed with the earth model of intermediate complexity, LOVECLIM (Goosse et al., 2010). These series of simulations use a combination of orbital parameters, greenhouse gas concentrations, total solar irradiance and volcanic forcings. By comparing the simulation with only long-term forcings (orbital and greenhouse gas), to experiments in which the impacts of short-term forcings (solar and volcanic) are added incrementally to the effect of

  8. Millennial- to century-scale variability in Gulf of Mexico Holocene climate records

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poore, R.Z.; Dowsett, H.J.; Verardo, S.; Quinn, T.M.

    2003-01-01

    Proxy records from two piston cores in the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) provide a detailed (50-100 year resolution) record of climate variability over the last 14,000 years. Long-term (millennial-scale) trends and changes are related to the transition from glacial to interglacial conditions and movement of the average position of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) related to orbital forcing. The ??18O of the surface-dwelling planktic foraminifer Globigerinoides ruber show negative excursions between 14 and 10.2 ka (radiocarbon years) that reflect influx of meltwater into the western GOM during melting of the Laurentide Ice Sheet. The relative abundance of the planktic foraminifer Globigerinoides sacculifer is related to transport of Caribbean water into the GOM. Maximum transport of Caribbean surface waters and moisture into the GOM associated with a northward migration of the average position of the ITCZ occurs between about 6.5 and 4.5 ka. In addition, abundance variations of G. sacculifer show century-scale variability throughout most of the Holocene. The GOM record is consistent with records from other areas, suggesting that century-scale variability is a pervasive feature of Holocene climate. The frequency of several cycles in the climate records is similar to cycles identified in proxy records of solar variability, indicating that at least some of the century-scale climate variability during the Holocene is due to external (solar) forcing.

  9. Recent advances in understanding secondary organic aerosol: Implications for global climate forcing: Advances in Secondary Organic Aerosol

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shrivastava, Manish [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Cappa, Christopher D. [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California, Davis California USA; Fan, Jiwen [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Goldstein, Allen H. [Department of Environmental Science, Policy and Management and Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California, Berkeley California USA; Guenther, Alex B. [Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine California USA; Jimenez, Jose L. [Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences and Department of Chemistry and Biochemistry, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder Colorado USA; Kuang, Chongai [Brookhaven National Laboratory, Upton New York USA; Laskin, Alexander [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Martin, Scot T. [School of Engineering and Applied Sciences and Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge Massachusetts USA; Ng, Nga Lee [School of Chemical and Biomolecular Engineering and School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta Georgia USA; Petaja, Tuukka [Department of Physics, University of Helsinki, Helsinki Finland; Pierce, Jeffrey R. [Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University, Fort Collins Colorado USA; Rasch, Philip J. [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Roldin, Pontus [Department of Physics, Lund University, Lund Sweden; Seinfeld, John H. [Division of Chemistry and Chemical Engineering, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena California USA; Shilling, John [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Smith, James N. [Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine California USA; Thornton, Joel A. [Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle Washington USA; Volkamer, Rainer [Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences and Department of Chemistry and Biochemistry, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder Colorado USA; Wang, Jian [Brookhaven National Laboratory, Upton New York USA; Worsnop, Douglas R. [Aerodyne Research, Inc., Billerica Massachusetts USA; Zaveri, Rahul A. [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Zelenyuk, Alla [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Zhang, Qi [Department of Environmental Toxicology, University of California, Davis California USA

    2017-06-01

    Anthropogenic emissions and land-use changes have modified atmospheric aerosol concentrations and size distributions over time. Understanding pre-industrial conditions and changes in organic aerosol due to anthropogenic activities is important because these features 1) influence estimates of aerosol radiative forcing and 2) can confound estimates of the historical response of climate to increases in greenhouse gases (e.g. the ‘climate sensitivity’). Secondary organic aerosol (SOA), formed in the atmosphere by oxidation of organic gases, represents a major fraction of global submicron-sized atmospheric organic aerosol. Over the past decade, significant advances in understanding SOA properties and formation mechanisms have occurred through a combination of laboratory and field measurements, yet current climate models typically do not comprehensively include all important SOA-relevant processes. Therefore, major gaps exist at present between current measurement-based knowledge on the one hand and model implementation of organic aerosols on the other. The critical review herein summarizes some of the important developments in understanding SOA formation that could potentially have large impacts on our understanding of aerosol radiative forcing and climate. We highlight the importance of some recently discovered processes and properties that influence the growth of SOA particles to sizes relevant for clouds and radiative forcing, including: formation of extremely low-volatility organics in the gas-phase; isoprene epoxydiols (IEPOX) multi-phase chemistry; particle-phase oligomerization; and physical properties such as viscosity. In addition, this review also highlights some of the important processes that involve interactions between natural biogenic emissions and anthropogenic emissions, such as the role of sulfate and oxides of nitrogen (NOx) on SOA formation from biogenic volatile organic compounds. Studies that relate the observed evolution of organic aerosol

  10. Stratospheric sulfur and its implications for radiative forcing simulated by the chemistry climate model EMAC.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brühl, C; Lelieveld, J; Tost, H; Höpfner, M; Glatthor, N

    2015-03-16

    Multiyear simulations with the atmospheric chemistry general circulation model EMAC with a microphysical modal aerosol module at high vertical resolution demonstrate that the sulfur gases COS and SO 2 , the latter from low-latitude and midlatitude volcanic eruptions, predominantly control the formation of stratospheric aerosol. Marine dimethyl sulfide (DMS) and other SO 2 sources, including strong anthropogenic emissions in China, are found to play a minor role except in the lowermost stratosphere. Estimates of volcanic SO 2 emissions are based on satellite observations using Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer and Ozone Monitoring Instrument for total injected mass and Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS) on Envisat or Stratospheric Aerosol and Gases Experiment for the spatial distribution. The 10 year SO 2 and COS data set of MIPAS is also used for model evaluation. The calculated radiative forcing of stratospheric background aerosol including sulfate from COS and small contributions by DMS oxidation, and organic aerosol from biomass burning, is about 0.07W/m 2 . For stratospheric sulfate aerosol from medium and small volcanic eruptions between 2005 and 2011 a global radiative forcing up to 0.2W/m 2 is calculated, moderating climate warming, while for the major Pinatubo eruption the simulated forcing reaches 5W/m 2 , leading to temporary climate cooling. The Pinatubo simulation demonstrates the importance of radiative feedback on dynamics, e.g., enhanced tropical upwelling, for large volcanic eruptions.

  11. Experimental evidence of reorganizing landscape under changing climatic forcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, A.; Tejedor, A.; Zaliapin, I. V.; Reinhardt, L.; Foufoula-Georgiou, E.

    2015-12-01

    Quantification of the dynamics of landscape reorganization under changing climatic forcing is important to understand geomorphic transport laws under transient conditions, assess response of landscapes to external perturbations for future predictive modeling, and for interpreting past climate from stratigraphic record. For such an analysis, however, real landscape observations are limited. To this end, a series of controlled laboratory experiments on evolving landscape were conducted at the St. Anthony Falls laboratory at the University of Minnesota. High resolution elevation data at a temporal resolution of 5 mins and spatial resolution of 0.5 mm were collected as the landscape approached steady state (constant uplift and precipitation rate) and in the transient state (under the same uplift and 5 times precipitation rate). Our results reveal rapid topographic re-organization under a five-fold increase in precipitation with the fluvial regime encroaching into the previously debris dominated regime, widening and aggradation of channels and valleys, and accelerated erosion happening at hillslope scales. To better understand the initiation of the observed reorganization, we perform a connectivity and clustering analysis of the erosional and depositional events, showing strikingly different spatial patterns on landscape evolution under steady-state (SS) and transient-state (TS), even when the time under SS is renormalized to match the total volume of eroded and deposited sediment in TS. Our results suggest a regime shift in the behavior of transport processes on the landscape at the intermediate scales i.e., from supply-limited to transport-limited.

  12. CSR Interaction for a 2D Energy-Chirped Bunch on a General Orbit

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li, Rui

    2009-01-01

    When an electron bunch with initial linear energy chirp traverses a bunch compression chicane, the bunch interacts with itself via coherent synchrotron radiation (CSR) and space charge force. The effective longitudinal CSR force for such kind of 2D bunch on a circular orbit has been analyzed earlier (1). In this paper, we present the analytical results of the effective longitudinal CSR force for a 2D energy-chirped bunch going through a general orbit, which includes the entrance and exit of a circular orbit. In particular, we will show the behavior of the force in the last bend of a chicane when the bunch is under extreme compression. This is the condition when bifurcation of bunch phase space occurs in many CSR measurements. (1) R. Li, Phys. Rev. ST Accel. Beams 11, 024401 (2008)

  13. Inferring climate sensitivity from volcanic events

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boer, G.J. [Environment Canada, University of Victoria, Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Victoria, BC (Canada); Stowasser, M.; Hamilton, K. [University of Hawaii, International Pacific Research Centre, Honolulu, HI (United States)

    2007-04-15

    The possibility of estimating the equilibrium climate sensitivity of the earth-system from observations following explosive volcanic eruptions is assessed in the context of a perfect model study. Two modern climate models (the CCCma CGCM3 and the NCAR CCSM2) with different equilibrium climate sensitivities are employed in the investigation. The models are perturbed with the same transient volcano-like forcing and the responses analysed to infer climate sensitivities. For volcano-like forcing the global mean surface temperature responses of the two models are very similar, despite their differing equilibrium climate sensitivities, indicating that climate sensitivity cannot be inferred from the temperature record alone even if the forcing is known. Equilibrium climate sensitivities can be reasonably determined only if both the forcing and the change in heat storage in the system are known very accurately. The geographic patterns of clear-sky atmosphere/surface and cloud feedbacks are similar for both the transient volcano-like and near-equilibrium constant forcing simulations showing that, to a considerable extent, the same feedback processes are invoked, and determine the climate sensitivity, in both cases. (orig.)

  14. Climate change hotspots in the CMIP5 global climate model ensemble.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diffenbaugh, Noah S; Giorgi, Filippo

    2012-01-10

    We use a statistical metric of multi-dimensional climate change to quantify the emergence of global climate change hotspots in the CMIP5 climate model ensemble. Our hotspot metric extends previous work through the inclusion of extreme seasonal temperature and precipitation, which exert critical influence on climate change impacts. The results identify areas of the Amazon, the Sahel and tropical West Africa, Indonesia, and the Tibetan Plateau as persistent regional climate change hotspots throughout the 21 st century of the RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 forcing pathways. In addition, areas of southern Africa, the Mediterranean, the Arctic, and Central America/western North America also emerge as prominent regional climate change hotspots in response to intermediate and high levels of forcing. Comparisons of different periods of the two forcing pathways suggest that the pattern of aggregate change is fairly robust to the level of global warming below approximately 2°C of global warming (relative to the late-20 th -century baseline), but not at the higher levels of global warming that occur in the late-21 st -century period of the RCP8.5 pathway, with areas of southern Africa, the Mediterranean, and the Arctic exhibiting particular intensification of relative aggregate climate change in response to high levels of forcing. Although specific impacts will clearly be shaped by the interaction of climate change with human and biological vulnerabilities, our identification of climate change hotspots can help to inform mitigation and adaptation decisions by quantifying the rate, magnitude and causes of the aggregate climate response in different parts of the world.

  15. Orbitally-paced variations of water availability in the SE Asian Monsoon region following the Miocene Climate Transition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heitmann, Emma O.; Ji, Shunchuan; Nie, Junsheng; Breecker, Daniel O.

    2017-09-01

    Middle Miocene Earth had several boundary conditions similar to those predicted for future Earth including similar atmospheric pCO2 and substantial Antarctic ice cover but no northern hemisphere ice sheets. We describe a 12 m outcrop of the terrestrial Yanwan Section in the Tianshui Basin, Gansu, China, following the Miocene Climate Transition (13.9-13.7 Ma). It consists of ∼25 cm thick CaCO3-cemented horizons that overprint siltstones every ∼1 m. We suggest that stacked soils developed in siltstones under a seasonal climate with a fluctuating water table, evidenced by roots, clay films, mottling, presence of CaCO3 nodules, and stacked carbonate nodule δ13 C and δ18 O profiles that mimic modern soils. We suggest that the CaCO3-cemented horizons are capillary-fringe carbonates that formed in an arid climate with a steady water table and high potential evapotranspiration rates (PET), evidenced by sharp upper and basal contacts, micrite, sparite, and root-pore cements. The CaCO3 of the cemented horizons and the carbonate nodules have similar mean δ18 O and δ13 C values but the cements have significantly smaller variance in δ13 C and δ18 O values and a different δ18 O versus δ13 C slope, supporting the conclusion that these carbonates are from different populations. The magneto-stratigraphic age model indicates obliquity pacing of the arid conditions required to form the CaCO3-cemented horizons suggesting an orbital control on water availability. We suggest two possible drivers for the obliquity pacing of arid conditions: 1) variability in the cross-equatorial pressure gradient that controls summer monsoon (ASM) strength and is influenced by obliquity-paced variations of Antarctic ice volume and 2) variability in Western Pacific Ocean-East Asian continent pressure gradient controlled by the 25-45°N meridional insolation gradient. We also suggest that variations in aridity were influenced by variations in PET and sensible heating of the regional land

  16. Comparison of hybrid spectral-decomposition artificial neural network models for understanding climatic forcing of groundwater levels

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abrokwah, K.; O'Reilly, A. M.

    2017-12-01

    Groundwater is an important resource that is extracted every day because of its invaluable use for domestic, industrial and agricultural purposes. The need for sustaining groundwater resources is clearly indicated by declining water levels and has led to modeling and forecasting accurate groundwater levels. In this study, spectral decomposition of climatic forcing time series was used to develop hybrid wavelet analysis (WA) and moving window average (MWA) artificial neural network (ANN) models. These techniques are explored by modeling historical groundwater levels in order to provide understanding of potential causes of the observed groundwater-level fluctuations. Selection of the appropriate decomposition level for WA and window size for MWA helps in understanding the important time scales of climatic forcing, such as rainfall, that influence water levels. Discrete wavelet transform (DWT) is used to decompose the input time-series data into various levels of approximate and details wavelet coefficients, whilst MWA acts as a low-pass signal-filtering technique for removing high-frequency signals from the input data. The variables used to develop and validate the models were daily average rainfall measurements from five National Atmospheric and Oceanic Administration (NOAA) weather stations and daily water-level measurements from two wells recorded from 1978 to 2008 in central Florida, USA. Using different decomposition levels and different window sizes, several WA-ANN and MWA-ANN models for simulating the water levels were created and their relative performances compared against each other. The WA-ANN models performed better than the corresponding MWA-ANN models; also higher decomposition levels of the input signal by the DWT gave the best results. The results obtained show the applicability and feasibility of hybrid WA-ANN and MWA-ANN models for simulating daily water levels using only climatic forcing time series as model inputs.

  17. Climatic Change. Human Influence?

    OpenAIRE

    Gonçalves, Dionísio; Leite, Solange; Ribeiro, A.C.; Figueiredo, Tomás de

    2016-01-01

    We begin by presenting the functioning of the Climate System and the variety of climates that occurs on the surface of the globe. We analyze climate change based on the sun's orbital parameters and other causes, focusing on the current interglacial period and the influence it had on the development of human societies. The following text looks on developing of the climate of the last 1000 years, with considerations about the warm medieval climate, the little ice age, the recovery...

  18. The role of forcing and internal dynamics in explaining the ''Medieval Climate Anomaly''

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Goosse, Hugues; Crespin, Elisabeth; Dubinkina, Svetlana; Loutre, Marie-France; Sallaz-Damaz, Yoann [Universite Catholique de Louvain, Earth and Life Institute, Georges Lemaitre Centre for Earth and Climate Research, Louvain-la-Neuve (Belgium); Mann, Michael E. [Pennsylvania State University, Department of Meteorology and Earth and Environmental Systems Institute, University Park, PA (United States); Renssen, Hans [Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Section Climate Change and Landscape Dynamics, Department of Earth Sciences, Amsterdam (Netherlands); Shindell, Drew [NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York City, NY (United States)

    2012-12-15

    Proxy reconstructions suggest that peak global temperature during the past warm interval known as the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA, roughly 950-1250 AD) has been exceeded only during the most recent decades. To better understand the origin of this warm period, we use model simulations constrained by data assimilation establishing the spatial pattern of temperature changes that is most consistent with forcing estimates, model physics and the empirical information contained in paleoclimate proxy records. These numerical experiments demonstrate that the reconstructed spatial temperature pattern of the MCA can be explained by a simple thermodynamical response of the climate system to relatively weak changes in radiative forcing combined with a modification of the atmospheric circulation, displaying some similarities with the positive phase of the so-called Arctic Oscillation, and with northward shifts in the position of the Gulf Stream and Kuroshio currents. The mechanisms underlying the MCA are thus quite different from anthropogenic mechanisms responsible for modern global warming. (orig.)

  19. Solar Radiation Pressure Binning for the Geosynchronous Orbit

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hejduk, M. D.; Ghrist, R. W.

    2011-01-01

    Orbital maintenance parameters for individual satellites or groups of satellites have traditionally been set by examining orbital parameters alone, such as through apogee and perigee height binning; this approach ignored the other factors that governed an individual satellite's susceptibility to non-conservative forces. In the atmospheric drag regime, this problem has been addressed by the introduction of the "energy dissipation rate," a quantity that represents the amount of energy being removed from the orbit; such an approach is able to consider both atmospheric density and satellite frontal area characteristics and thus serve as a mechanism for binning satellites of similar behavior. The geo-synchronous orbit (of broader definition than the geostationary orbit -- here taken to be from 1300 to 1800 minutes in orbital period) is not affected by drag; rather, its principal non-conservative force is that of solar radiation pressure -- the momentum imparted to the satellite by solar radiometric energy. While this perturbation is solved for as part of the orbit determination update, no binning or division scheme, analogous to the drag regime, has been developed for the geo-synchronous orbit. The present analysis has begun such an effort by examining the behavior of geosynchronous rocket bodies and non-stabilized payloads as a function of solar radiation pressure susceptibility. A preliminary examination of binning techniques used in the drag regime gives initial guidance regarding the criteria for useful bin divisions. Applying these criteria to the object type, solar radiation pressure, and resultant state vector accuracy for the analyzed dataset, a single division of "large" satellites into two bins for the purposes of setting related sensor tasking and orbit determination (OD) controls is suggested. When an accompanying analysis of high area-to-mass objects is complete, a full set of binning recommendations for the geosynchronous orbit will be available.

  20. Analysis of the influence of orbital disturbances applied to an artificial lunar satellite

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gonçalves, L D; Rocco, E M; De Moraes, R V

    2015-01-01

    This paper analyzes the influence of the orbital disturbance forces in the trajectory of lunar satellites. The following gravitational and non-gravitational orbital disturbances are considered: the non-homogeneity of the lunar gravitational field; the gravitational attraction due to the third body, considering the Earth and the Sun; the lunar albedo; the solar radiation pressure. Numerical models were developed and implemented in an orbital trajectory simulator aiming to understand the dynamics of the orbital motion of an artificial satellite in lunar orbit when considering the simultaneous effect of all disturbances. Different orbits were simulated in order to characterize the major and the minor influence of each disturbing force as function of the inclination and the right ascension of the ascending node. This study can be very useful in the space mission analysis and in the selection of orbits less affected by environmental disturbances. (paper)

  1. Bifurcation structure and noise assisted transitions in the Pleistocene glacial cycles

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ditlevsen, Peter

    2009-01-01

    history. It indicates the dynamical origin of the mid-Pleistocene transition from the "41 ka world'' to the "100 ka world.'' The dominant forcing in the latter is still the 41 ka obliquity cycle, but the bifurcation structure of the climate system is changed. The model suggests that transitions between......The glacial cycles are attributed to the climatic response of the orbital changes in the irradiance to the Earth. These changes in the forcing are too small to explain the observed climate variations as simple linear responses. Nonlinear amplifications of the orbital forcing are necessary...... to account for the glacial cycles. Here an empirical model of the nonlinear response is presented. From the model it is possible to assess the role of stochastic noise in comparison to the deterministic orbital forcing of the ice ages. The model is based on the bifurcation structure derived from the climate...

  2. Parliamentary role and relationship in effectively addressing climate change issues - Swaziland

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brown, R

    2011-01-15

    Climate change is defined as any long-term and significant change in the expected patterns of a specific region's average weather for an appropriately significant period of time. It is the result of several factors, including Earth?s dynamic processes, external forces, and more recently, human activity. External factors that shape climate include such processes as variations in solar radiation, deviations in Earth's orbit, and variations in the level of greenhouse gas concentrations. Evidence of climatic change taken from a variety of sources can, in turn, be used to reconstruct past climates. Most climate evidence is inferred from changes in key climate indicators, including vegetation, ice cores, dendrochronology, sea-level change, and glacial geology. Climate change represents one of the greatest environmental, social, and economic threats facing the planet today. In developing countries, Swaziland included, climate change will likely have a significant impact on the livelihoods and living conditions of the poor. It is a particular threat to the attainment of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and progress in sustainable development in Sub-Saharan Africa. Increasing temperatures and shifting rain patterns across Africa reduce access to food and create effects that impact regions, farming systems, households, and individuals in varying ways. Additional global changes, including changed trade patterns and energy policies, have the potential to exacerbate the negative effects of climate change on some of these systems and groups.

  3. Interglacial climate dynamics and advanced time series analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mudelsee, Manfred; Bermejo, Miguel; Köhler, Peter; Lohmann, Gerrit

    2013-04-01

    Studying the climate dynamics of past interglacials (IGs) helps to better assess the anthropogenically influenced dynamics of the current IG, the Holocene. We select the IG portions from the EPICA Dome C ice core archive, which covers the past 800 ka, to apply methods of statistical time series analysis (Mudelsee 2010). The analysed variables are deuterium/H (indicating temperature) (Jouzel et al. 2007), greenhouse gases (Siegenthaler et al. 2005, Loulergue et al. 2008, L¨ü thi et al. 2008) and a model-co-derived climate radiative forcing (Köhler et al. 2010). We select additionally high-resolution sea-surface-temperature records from the marine sedimentary archive. The first statistical method, persistence time estimation (Mudelsee 2002) lets us infer the 'climate memory' property of IGs. Second, linear regression informs about long-term climate trends during IGs. Third, ramp function regression (Mudelsee 2000) is adapted to look on abrupt climate changes during IGs. We compare the Holocene with previous IGs in terms of these mathematical approaches, interprete results in a climate context, assess uncertainties and the requirements to data from old IGs for yielding results of 'acceptable' accuracy. This work receives financial support from the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (Project ClimSens within the DFG Research Priority Program INTERDYNAMIK) and the European Commission (Marie Curie Initial Training Network LINC, No. 289447, within the 7th Framework Programme). References Jouzel J, Masson-Delmotte V, Cattani O, Dreyfus G, Falourd S, Hoffmann G, Minster B, Nouet J, Barnola JM, Chappellaz J, Fischer H, Gallet JC, Johnsen S, Leuenberger M, Loulergue L, Luethi D, Oerter H, Parrenin F, Raisbeck G, Raynaud D, Schilt A, Schwander J, Selmo E, Souchez R, Spahni R, Stauffer B, Steffensen JP, Stenni B, Stocker TF, Tison JL, Werner M, Wolff EW (2007) Orbital and millennial Antarctic climate variability over the past 800,000 years. Science 317:793. Köhler P, Bintanja R

  4. Energy and the Elliptical Orbit

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nettles, Bill

    2009-03-01

    In the January 2007 issue of The Physics Teacher, Prentis, Fulton, Hesse, and Mazzino describe a laboratory exercise in which students use a geometrical analysis inspired by Newton to show that an elliptical orbit and an inverse-square law force go hand in hand. The historical, geometrical, and teamwork aspects of the exercise are useful and important. This paper presents an exercise which uses an energy/angular momentum conservation model for elliptical orbits. This exercise can be done easily by an individual student and on regular notebook-sized paper.

  5. Climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cronin, Thomas M.

    2016-01-01

    Climate change (including climate variability) refers to regional or global changes in mean climate state or in patterns of climate variability over decades to millions of years often identified using statistical methods and sometimes referred to as changes in long-term weather conditions (IPCC, 2012). Climate is influenced by changes in continent-ocean configurations due to plate tectonic processes, variations in Earth’s orbit, axial tilt and precession, atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations, solar variability, volcanism, internal variability resulting from interactions between the atmosphere, oceans and ice (glaciers, small ice caps, ice sheets, and sea ice), and anthropogenic activities such as greenhouse gas emissions and land use and their effects on carbon cycling.

  6. Environmental forcing and Southern Ocean marine predator populations: effects of climate change and variability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trathan, P N; Forcada, J; Murphy, E J

    2007-12-29

    The Southern Ocean is a major component within the global ocean and climate system and potentially the location where the most rapid climate change is most likely to happen, particularly in the high-latitude polar regions. In these regions, even small temperature changes can potentially lead to major environmental perturbations. Climate change is likely to be regional and may be expressed in various ways, including alterations to climate and weather patterns across a variety of time-scales that include changes to the long interdecadal background signals such as the development of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Oscillating climate signals such as ENSO potentially provide a unique opportunity to explore how biological communities respond to change. This approach is based on the premise that biological responses to shorter-term sub-decadal climate variability signals are potentially the best predictor of biological responses over longer time-scales. Around the Southern Ocean, marine predator populations show periodicity in breeding performance and productivity, with relationships with the environment driven by physical forcing from the ENSO region in the Pacific. Wherever examined, these relationships are congruent with mid-trophic-level processes that are also correlated with environmental variability. The short-term changes to ecosystem structure and function observed during ENSO events herald potential long-term changes that may ensue following regional climate change. For example, in the South Atlantic, failure of Antarctic krill recruitment will inevitably foreshadow recruitment failures in a range of higher trophic-level marine predators. Where predator species are not able to accommodate by switching to other prey species, population-level changes will follow. The Southern Ocean, though oceanographically interconnected, is not a single ecosystem and different areas are dominated by different food webs. Where species occupy different positions in

  7. Advancements in the use of speleothems as climate archives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wong, Corinne I.; Breecker, Daniel O.

    2015-11-01

    Speleothems have become a cornerstone of the approach to better understanding Earth's climatic teleconnections due to their precise absolute chronologies, their continuous or semicontinuous deposition and their global terrestrial distribution. We review the last decade of speleothem-related research, building off a similar review by McDermott (2004), in three themes - i) investigation of global teleconnections using speleothem-based climate reconstructions, ii) refinement of climate interpretations from speleothem proxies through cave monitoring, and iii) novel, technical methods of speleothem-based climate reconstructions. Speleothem records have enabled critical insight into the response of global hydroclimate to large climate changes. This includes the relevant forcings and sequence of climatic responses involved in glacial terminations and recognition of a global monsoon response to climate changes on orbital and millennial time scales. We review advancements in understanding of the processes that control speleothem δ13C values and introduce the idea of a direct atmospheric pCO2 influence. We discuss progress in understanding kinetic isotope fractionation, which, with further advances, may help quantify paleoclimate changes despite non-equilibrium formation of speleothems. This feeds into the potential of proxy system modeling to consider climatic, hydrological and biogeochemical processes with the objective of quantitatively interpreting speleothem proxies. Finally, we provide an overview of emerging speleothem proxies and novel approaches using existing proxies. Most recently, technical advancements made in the measurement of fluid inclusions are now yielding reliable determinations of paleotemperatures.

  8. Two-craft Coulomb formation study about circular orbits and libration points

    Science.gov (United States)

    Inampudi, Ravi Kishore

    This dissertation investigates the dynamics and control of a two-craft Coulomb formation in circular orbits and at libration points; it addresses relative equilibria, stability and optimal reconfigurations of such formations. The relative equilibria of a two-craft tether formation connected by line-of-sight elastic forces moving in circular orbits and at libration points are investigated. In circular Earth orbits and Earth-Moon libration points, the radial, along-track, and orbit normal great circle equilibria conditions are found. An example of modeling the tether force using Coulomb force is discussed. Furthermore, the non-great-circle equilibria conditions for a two-spacecraft tether structure in circular Earth orbit and at collinear libration points are developed. Then the linearized dynamics and stability analysis of a 2-craft Coulomb formation at Earth-Moon libration points are studied. For orbit-radial equilibrium, Coulomb forces control the relative distance between the two satellites. The gravity gradient torques on the formation due to the two planets help stabilize the formation. Similar analysis is performed for along-track and orbit-normal relative equilibrium configurations. Where necessary, the craft use a hybrid thrusting-electrostatic actuation system. The two-craft dynamics at the libration points provide a general framework with circular Earth orbit dynamics forming a special case. In the presence of differential solar drag perturbations, a Lyapunov feedback controller is designed to stabilize a radial equilibrium, two-craft Coulomb formation at collinear libration points. The second part of the thesis investigates optimal reconfigurations of two-craft Coulomb formations in circular Earth orbits by applying nonlinear optimal control techniques. The objective of these reconfigurations is to maneuver the two-craft formation between two charged equilibria configurations. The reconfiguration of spacecraft is posed as an optimization problem using the

  9. LightForce: An Update on Orbital Collision Avoidance Using Photon Pressure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stupl, Jan; Mason, James; De Vries, Willem; Smith, Craig; Levit, Creon; Marshall, William; Salas, Alberto Guillen; Pertica, Alexander; Olivier, Scot; Ting, Wang

    2012-01-01

    We present an update on our research on collision avoidance using photon-pressure induced by ground-based lasers. In the past, we have shown the general feasibility of employing small orbit perturbations, induced by photon pressure from ground-based laser illumination, for collision avoidance in space. Possible applications would be protecting space assets from impacts with debris and stabilizing the orbital debris environment. Focusing on collision avoidance rather than de-orbit, the scheme avoids some of the security and liability implications of active debris removal, and requires less sophisticated hardware than laser ablation. In earlier research we concluded that one ground based system consisting of a 10 kW class laser, directed by a 1.5 m telescope with adaptive optics, could avoid a significant fraction of debris-debris collisions in low Earth orbit. This paper describes our recent efforts, which include refining our original analysis, employing higher fidelity simulations and performing experimental tracking tests. We investigate the efficacy of one or more laser ground stations for debris-debris collision avoidance and satellite protection using simulations to investigate multiple case studies. The approach includes modeling of laser beam propagation through the atmosphere, the debris environment (including actual trajectories and physical parameters), laser facility operations, and simulations of the resulting photon pressure. We also present the results of experimental laser debris tracking tests. These tests track potential targets of a first technical demonstration and quantify the achievable tracking performance.

  10. The influence of atmospheric grid resolution in a climate model-forced ice sheet simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lofverstrom, Marcus; Liakka, Johan

    2018-04-01

    Coupled climate-ice sheet simulations have been growing in popularity in recent years. Experiments of this type are however challenging as ice sheets evolve over multi-millennial timescales, which is beyond the practical integration limit of most Earth system models. A common method to increase model throughput is to trade resolution for computational efficiency (compromise accuracy for speed). Here we analyze how the resolution of an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) influences the simulation quality in a stand-alone ice sheet model. Four identical AGCM simulations of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) were run at different horizontal resolutions: T85 (1.4°), T42 (2.8°), T31 (3.8°), and T21 (5.6°). These simulations were subsequently used as forcing of an ice sheet model. While the T85 climate forcing reproduces the LGM ice sheets to a high accuracy, the intermediate resolution cases (T42 and T31) fail to build the Eurasian ice sheet. The T21 case fails in both Eurasia and North America. Sensitivity experiments using different surface mass balance parameterizations improve the simulations of the Eurasian ice sheet in the T42 case, but the compromise is a substantial ice buildup in Siberia. The T31 and T21 cases do not improve in the same way in Eurasia, though the latter simulates the continent-wide Laurentide ice sheet in North America. The difficulty to reproduce the LGM ice sheets in the T21 case is in broad agreement with previous studies using low-resolution atmospheric models, and is caused by a substantial deterioration of the model climate between the T31 and T21 resolutions. It is speculated that this deficiency may demonstrate a fundamental problem with using low-resolution atmospheric models in these types of experiments.

  11. Posttraumatic Orbital Emphysema: A Numerical Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrzej Skorek

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Orbital emphysema is a common symptom accompanying orbital fracture. The pathomechanism is still not recognized and the usually assumed cause, elevated pressure in the upper airways connected with sneezing or coughing, does not always contribute to the occurrence of this type of fracture. Observations based on the finite model (simulating blowout type fracture of the deformations of the inferior orbital wall after a strike in its lower rim. Authors created a computer numeric model of the orbit with specified features—thickness and resilience modulus. During simulation an evenly spread 14400 N force was applied to the nodular points in the inferior rim (the maximal value not causing cracking of the outer rim, but only ruptures in the inferior wall. The observation was made from 1·10-3 to 1·10-2 second after a strike. Right after a strike dislocations of the inferior orbital wall toward the maxillary sinus were observed. Afterwards a retrograde wave of the dislocation of the inferior wall toward the orbit was noticed. Overall dislocation amplitude reached about 6 mm. Based on a numeric model of the orbit submitted to a strike in the inferior wall an existence of a retrograde shock wave causing orbital emphysema has been found.

  12. A double-integration hypothesis to explain ocean ecosystem response to climate forcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Lorenzo, Emanuele; Ohman, Mark D.

    2013-01-01

    Long-term time series of marine ecological indicators often are characterized by large-amplitude state transitions that can persist for decades. Understanding the significance of these variations depends critically on the underlying hypotheses characterizing expected natural variability. Using a linear autoregressive model in combination with long-term zooplankton observations off the California coast, we show that cumulative integrations of white-noise atmospheric forcing can generate marine population responses that are characterized by strong transitions and prolonged apparent state changes. This model provides a baseline hypothesis for explaining ecosystem variability and for interpreting the significance of abrupt responses and climate change signatures in marine ecosystems. PMID:23341628

  13. Constraining Carbonaceous Aerosol Climate Forcing by Bridging Laboratory, Field and Modeling Studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dubey, M. K.; Aiken, A. C.; Liu, S.; Saleh, R.; Cappa, C. D.; Williams, L. R.; Donahue, N. M.; Gorkowski, K.; Ng, N. L.; Mazzoleni, C.; China, S.; Sharma, N.; Yokelson, R. J.; Allan, J. D.; Liu, D.

    2014-12-01

    Biomass and fossil fuel combustion emits black (BC) and brown carbon (BrC) aerosols that absorb sunlight to warm climate and organic carbon (OC) aerosols that scatter sunlight to cool climate. The net forcing depends strongly on the composition, mixing state and transformations of these carbonaceous aerosols. Complexities from large variability of fuel types, combustion conditions and aging processes have confounded their treatment in models. We analyse recent laboratory and field measurements to uncover fundamental mechanism that control the chemical, optical and microphysical properties of carbonaceous aerosols that are elaborated below: Wavelength dependence of absorption and the single scattering albedo (ω) of fresh biomass burning aerosols produced from many fuels during FLAME-4 was analysed to determine the factors that control the variability in ω. Results show that ω varies strongly with fire-integrated modified combustion efficiency (MCEFI)—higher MCEFI results in lower ω values and greater spectral dependence of ω (Liu et al GRL 2014). A parameterization of ω as a function of MCEFI for fresh BB aerosols is derived from the laboratory data and is evaluated by field data, including BBOP. Our laboratory studies also demonstrate that BrC production correlates with BC indicating that that they are produced by a common mechanism that is driven by MCEFI (Saleh et al NGeo 2014). We show that BrC absorption is concentrated in the extremely low volatility component that favours long-range transport. We observe substantial absorption enhancement for internally mixed BC from diesel and wood combustion near London during ClearFlo. While the absorption enhancement is due to BC particles coated by co-emitted OC in urban regions, it increases with photochemical age in rural areas and is simulated by core-shell models. We measure BrC absorption that is concentrated in the extremely low volatility components and attribute it to wood burning. Our results support

  14. Climate variability and change

    CERN Document Server

    Grassl, H

    1998-01-01

    Many factors influence climate. The present knowledge concerning the climate relevance of earth orbital parameters, solar luminosity, volcanoes, internal interactions, and human activities will be reported as well as the vulnerability of emission scenarios for given stabilization goals for greenhouse gas concentrations and the main points of the Kyoto Protocol

  15. Future climate forcing potentially without precedent in the last 420 million years.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foster, Gavin L; Royer, Dana L; Lunt, Daniel J

    2017-04-04

    The evolution of Earth's climate on geological timescales is largely driven by variations in the magnitude of total solar irradiance (TSI) and changes in the greenhouse gas content of the atmosphere. Here we show that the slow ∼50 Wm -2 increase in TSI over the last ∼420 million years (an increase of ∼9 Wm -2 of radiative forcing) was almost completely negated by a long-term decline in atmospheric CO 2 . This was likely due to the silicate weathering-negative feedback and the expansion of land plants that together ensured Earth's long-term habitability. Humanity's fossil-fuel use, if unabated, risks taking us, by the middle of the twenty-first century, to values of CO 2 not seen since the early Eocene (50 million years ago). If CO 2 continues to rise further into the twenty-third century, then the associated large increase in radiative forcing, and how the Earth system would respond, would likely be without geological precedent in the last half a billion years.

  16. Reproducing multi-model ensemble average with Ensemble-averaged Reconstructed Forcings (ERF) in regional climate modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erfanian, A.; Fomenko, L.; Wang, G.

    2016-12-01

    Multi-model ensemble (MME) average is considered the most reliable for simulating both present-day and future climates. It has been a primary reference for making conclusions in major coordinated studies i.e. IPCC Assessment Reports and CORDEX. The biases of individual models cancel out each other in MME average, enabling the ensemble mean to outperform individual members in simulating the mean climate. This enhancement however comes with tremendous computational cost, which is especially inhibiting for regional climate modeling as model uncertainties can originate from both RCMs and the driving GCMs. Here we propose the Ensemble-based Reconstructed Forcings (ERF) approach to regional climate modeling that achieves a similar level of bias reduction at a fraction of cost compared with the conventional MME approach. The new method constructs a single set of initial and boundary conditions (IBCs) by averaging the IBCs of multiple GCMs, and drives the RCM with this ensemble average of IBCs to conduct a single run. Using a regional climate model (RegCM4.3.4-CLM4.5), we tested the method over West Africa for multiple combination of (up to six) GCMs. Our results indicate that the performance of the ERF method is comparable to that of the MME average in simulating the mean climate. The bias reduction seen in ERF simulations is achieved by using more realistic IBCs in solving the system of equations underlying the RCM physics and dynamics. This endows the new method with a theoretical advantage in addition to reducing computational cost. The ERF output is an unaltered solution of the RCM as opposed to a climate state that might not be physically plausible due to the averaging of multiple solutions with the conventional MME approach. The ERF approach should be considered for use in major international efforts such as CORDEX. Key words: Multi-model ensemble, ensemble analysis, ERF, regional climate modeling

  17. Radiative forcing estimates of sulfate aerosol in coupled climate-chemistry models with emphasis on the role of the temporal variability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Déandreis

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper describes the impact on the sulfate aerosol radiative effects of coupling the radiative code of a global circulation model with a chemistry-aerosol module. With this coupling, temporal variations of sulfate aerosol concentrations influence the estimate of aerosol radiative impacts. Effects of this coupling have been assessed on net fluxes, radiative forcing and temperature for the direct and first indirect effects of sulfate.

    The direct effect respond almost linearly to rapid changes in concentrations whereas the first indirect effect shows a strong non-linearity. In particular, sulfate temporal variability causes a modification of the short wave net fluxes at the top of the atmosphere of +0.24 and +0.22 W m−2 for the present and preindustrial periods, respectively. This change is small compared to the value of the net flux at the top of the atmosphere (about 240 W m−2. The effect is more important in regions with low-level clouds and intermediate sulfate aerosol concentrations (from 0.1 to 0.8 μg (SO4 m−3 in our model.

    The computation of the aerosol direct radiative forcing is quite straightforward and the temporal variability has little effect on its mean value. In contrast, quantifying the first indirect radiative forcing requires tackling technical issues first. We show that the preindustrial sulfate concentrations have to be calculated with the same meteorological trajectory used for computing the present ones. If this condition is not satisfied, it introduces an error on the estimation of the first indirect radiative forcing. Solutions are proposed to assess radiative forcing properly. In the reference method, the coupling between chemistry and climate results in a global average increase of 8% in the first indirect radiative forcing. This change reaches 50% in the most sensitive regions. However, the reference method is not suited to run long climate

  18. Framing Climate Goals in Terms of Cumulative CO2-Forcing-Equivalent Emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jenkins, S.; Millar, R. J.; Leach, N.; Allen, M. R.

    2018-03-01

    The relationship between cumulative CO2 emissions and CO2-induced warming is determined by the Transient Climate Response to Emissions (TCRE), but total anthropogenic warming also depends on non-CO2 forcing, complicating the interpretation of emissions budgets based on CO2 alone. An alternative is to frame emissions budgets in terms of CO2-forcing-equivalent (CO2-fe) emissions—the CO2 emissions that would yield a given total anthropogenic radiative forcing pathway. Unlike conventional "CO2-equivalent" emissions, these are directly related to warming by the TCRE and need to fall to zero to stabilize warming: hence, CO2-fe emissions generalize the concept of a cumulative carbon budget to multigas scenarios. Cumulative CO2-fe emissions from 1870 to 2015 inclusive are found to be 2,900 ± 600 GtCO2-fe, increasing at a rate of 67 ± 9.5 GtCO2-fe/yr. A TCRE range of 0.8-2.5°C per 1,000 GtC implies a total budget for 0.6°C of additional warming above the present decade of 880-2,750 GtCO2-fe, with 1,290 GtCO2-fe implied by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 median response, corresponding to 19 years' CO2-fe emissions at the current rate.

  19. A role for land surface forcing of North Atlantic climate and isotope signals during the 8.2kyr event?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hopcroft, Peter; Valdes, Paul

    2014-05-01

    An important example of abrupt climate change occurred 8200 years ago in the North Atlantic and is generally known as the 8.2kyr event. This abrupt ~160 year cooling appears to coincide with the final drainage of the ice-dammed Lakes Agassiz and Ojibway. The resultant influx of meltwater to the North Atlantic is assumed to have perturbed the Atlantic Meridional Overturning circulation, reducing northward heat transport and causing widespread cooling. Numerous lines of evidence support this theory, with reconstructions showing changes in deep water formation, reductions in salinity and evidence of sea-level rise. Coupled general circulation model (GCM) simulations driven with realistic estimates of the meltwater flux show a regional cooling but fail to replicate the duration or the magnitude of this event in comparison with proxy archives. Meltwater injection was not the only rapid climate forcing in operation at this time. Drainage of the pro-glacial lakes would have had a profound effect on the boundary layer heat fluxes over North America, with potential teleconnections further afield. In this work we use an isotope-enabled version of the coupled GCM HadCM3 with boundary conditions appropriate for the time period of 9kyr (including ice sheets, greenhouse gases and orbital parameters). This model tracks oxygen isotopes throughout the hydrological cycle allowing more robust comparison with proxy archives. We analyse the impact of the removal of a lake area corresponding to Lakes Agassiz and Ojibway at this time and present sensitivity tests designed to analyse the contributions from lake removal, orographic change and the assumed isotopic content of the pro-glacial lakes. The results show a distinct pattern of cooling across North America (in the annual mean) with an apparent teleconnection to the Barents Sea, where there is warming associated with sea-ice reduction. The isotopic implications depend on the initial isotopic content of the pro-glacial lake. Assuming

  20. Tenaghi Philippon (Greece Revisited: Drilling a Continuous Lower-Latitude Terrestrial Climate Archive of the Last 250,000 Years

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kimon Christanis

    2007-09-01

    Full Text Available With the dramatically increasing manifestation of anthropogenic forcing on the Earth's climate, understanding the mechanisms and effects of abrupt climate change is crucial to extend the lead time for mitigation and adaptation. In this context, the climate variability during the Quaternary represents the closest analogy to present-day climate change. Unprecedented insights into both short-term (i.e., decadalto centennial-scale and long-term (i.e., orbital-scale climate variability over the last 740 kyr have been derived from ice cores from polar regions (Dansgaard et al., 1993; EPICA community members, 2004. These records show that the higher latitudes repeatedly witnessed temperature changes of more than 10°C within human time scales (Severinghaus et al., 1998. Considerably less information is available on the characteristics of abrupt climate change in the middle and lower latitudes and on their imprint on terrestrial environments. These regions are, however, home to the majority of the Earth’s population, and consequently they will witnessthe greatest impact of future climate change on people's lives.

  1. How did Marine Isotope Stage 3 and Last Glacial Maximum climates differ? – Perspectives from equilibrium simulations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. J. Van Meerbeeck

    2009-03-01

    Full Text Available Dansgaard-Oeschger events occurred frequently during Marine Isotope Stage 3 (MIS3, as opposed to the following MIS2 period, which included the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM. Transient climate model simulations suggest that these abrupt warming events in Greenland and the North Atlantic region are associated with a resumption of the Thermohaline Circulation (THC from a weak state during stadials to a relatively strong state during interstadials. However, those models were run with LGM, rather than MIS3 boundary conditions. To quantify the influence of different boundary conditions on the climates of MIS3 and LGM, we perform two equilibrium climate simulations with the three-dimensional earth system model LOVECLIM, one for stadial, the other for interstadial conditions. We compare them to the LGM state simulated with the same model. Both climate states are globally 2°C warmer than LGM. A striking feature of our MIS3 simulations is the enhanced Northern Hemisphere seasonality, July surface air temperatures being 4°C warmer than in LGM. Also, despite some modification in the location of North Atlantic deep water formation, deep water export to the South Atlantic remains unaffected. To study specifically the effect of orbital forcing, we perform two additional sensitivity experiments spun up from our stadial simulation. The insolation difference between MIS3 and LGM causes half of the 30–60° N July temperature anomaly (+6°C. In a third simulation additional freshwater forcing halts the Atlantic THC, yielding a much colder North Atlantic region (−7°C. Comparing our simulation with proxy data, we find that the MIS3 climate with collapsed THC mimics stadials over the North Atlantic better than both control experiments, which might crudely estimate interstadial climate. These results suggest that freshwater forcing is necessary to return climate from warm interstadials to cold stadials during MIS3. This changes our perspective, making the stadial

  2. Many-body forces and stability of the alkaline-earth tetramers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Diaz-Torrejon, C.C.; Kaplan, Ilya G.

    2011-01-01

    Graphical abstract: Many-body forces effect. In a three-particle system, the two-body interaction energies depend upon coordinates of all three particles. The comparative study of the interaction energy and its many-body decomposition for alkaline-earths tetramers Be 4 , Mg 4 , and Ca 4 at the all-electron CCSD(T)/aug-cc-pVQZ level is performed. For study of dependence of the binding energy and the orbital population on the cluster size the corresponding dimers and trimers were also calculated at the same level of theory. In comparison with weakly bound dimers, the binding energy in trimers and, especially, in tetramers drastically increases; e.g., E b /N in Be 3 is 7 times larger and in Be 4 is 18.4 times larger than in Be 2 . This sharp increase is explained as a manifestation of many-body forces. The trimers and tetramers are stabilized by the three-body forces, whereas the two- and four-body forces are repulsive. The attractive contribution to the three-body forces has a three-atom electron exchange origin. The natural bond orbital (NBO) population analysis reveals a relatively large np-population in trimers and tetramers. The population of the valence np-orbitals leads to the sp-hybridization providing the covalent bonding. Research highlights: → The alkaline-earths trimers and tetramers are stabilized by the three-body forces. → Two- and four-body forces are repulsive for trimers and tetramers. → The attractive contribution to the three-body forces has a three-atom electron exchange origin. → The population of the np-orbitals leads to the sp-hybridization providing the covalent bonding. - Abstract: The comparative study of the interaction energy and its many-body decomposition for Be 4 , Mg 4 , and Ca 4 at the all-electron CCSD(T)/aug-cc-pVQZ level is performed. For study of dependence of the binding energy and the orbital population on the cluster size the corresponding dimers and trimers were also calculated at the same level of theory. In

  3. Real-Time Climate Simulations in the Interactive 3D Game Universe Sandbox ²

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goldenson, N. L.

    2014-12-01

    Exploration in an open-ended computer game is an engaging way to explore climate and climate change. Everyone can explore physical models with real-time visualization in the educational simulator Universe Sandbox ² (universesandbox.com/2), which includes basic climate simulations on planets. I have implemented a time-dependent, one-dimensional meridional heat transport energy balance model to run and be adjustable in real time in the midst of a larger simulated system. Universe Sandbox ² is based on the original game - at its core a gravity simulator - with other new physically-based content for stellar evolution, and handling collisions between bodies. Existing users are mostly science enthusiasts in informal settings. We believe that this is the first climate simulation to be implemented in a professionally developed computer game with modern 3D graphical output in real time. The type of simple climate model we've adopted helps us depict the seasonal cycle and the more drastic changes that come from changing the orbit or other external forcings. Users can alter the climate as the simulation is running by altering the star(s) in the simulation, dragging to change orbits and obliquity, adjusting the climate simulation parameters directly or changing other properties like CO2 concentration that affect the model parameters in representative ways. Ongoing visuals of the expansion and contraction of sea ice and snow-cover respond to the temperature calculations, and make it accessible to explore a variety of scenarios and intuitive to understand the output. Variables like temperature can also be graphed in real time. We balance computational constraints with the ability to capture the physical phenomena we wish to visualize, giving everyone access to a simple open-ended meridional energy balance climate simulation to explore and experiment with. The software lends itself to labs at a variety of levels about climate concepts including seasons, the Greenhouse effect

  4. Peptide Free Energy Landscapes Calibrated by Molecular Orbital Calculations

    OpenAIRE

    Ono, S.; Kuroda, M.; Higo, J.; Kamiya, N.; Nakajima, N.; Nakamura, H.

    2002-01-01

    Free energy landscapes of peptide conformations werecalibrated by ab initiomolecular orbital calculations, after enhancedconformational sampling using the multicanonical molecular dynamicssimulations. Three different potentials of mean force for an isolateddipeptide were individually obtained using the conventional force fields,AMBER parm94, AMBER parm96, and CHARMm22. Each potential ofmean force was calibrated based on the umbrella sampling algorithm fromthe adiabatic energy map that was cal...

  5. How Hot was Africa during the Mid-Holocene? Reexamining Africa's Thermal History via integrated Climate and Proxy System Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dee, S.; Russell, J. M.; Morrill, C.

    2017-12-01

    Climate models predict Africa will warm by up to 5°C in the coming century. Reconstructions of African temperature since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) have made fundamental contributions to our understanding of past, present, and future climate and can help constrain predictions from general circulation models (GCMs). However, many of these reconstructions are based on proxies of lake temperature, so the confounding influences of lacustrine processes may complicate our interpretations of past changes in tropical climate. These proxy-specific uncertainties require robust methodology for data-model comparison. We develop a new proxy system model (PSM) for paleolimnology to facilitate data-model comparison and to fully characterize uncertainties in climate reconstructions. Output from GCMs are used to force the PSM to simulate lake temperature, hydrology, and associated proxy uncertainties. We compare reconstructed East African lake and air temperatures in individual records and in a stack of 9 lake records to those predicted by our PSM forced with Paleoclimate Model Intercomparison Project (PMIP3) simulations, focusing on the mid-Holocene (6 kyr BP). We additionally employ single-forcing transient climate simulations from TraCE (10 kyr to 4 kyr B.P. and historical), as well as 200-yr time slice simulations from CESM1.0 to run the lake PSM. We test the sensitivity of African climate change during the mid-Holocene to orbital, greenhouse gas, and ice-sheet forcing in single-forcing simulations, and investigate dynamical hypotheses for these changes. Reconstructions of tropical African temperature indicate 1-2ºC warming during the mid-Holocene relative to the present, similar to changes predicted in the coming decades. However, most climate models underestimate the warming observed in these paleoclimate data (Fig. 1, 6kyr B.P.). We investigate this discrepancy using the new lake PSM and climate model simulations, with attention to the (potentially non

  6. Holocene record of glacier variability from lake sediments reveals tripartite climate history for Svalbard

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Bilt, Willem; Bakke, Jostein; Vasskog, Kristian; D`Andrea, William; Bradley, Raymond; Olafsdottir, Sædis

    2016-04-01

    The Arctic is responding sensitively to ongoing global climate change, warming and moistening faster than any other region on the planet. Holocene proxy paleoclimate time series are increasingly used to put this amplified response in perspective by understanding Arctic climate processes beyond the instrumental period. Glaciers rapidly respond to climate shifts as demonstrated by their current demise around the world. This response has a composite climate signature, marked by shifts in hydroclimate (winter precipitation) as well as (summer) temperature. Attendant changes in glacier size are recorded by variations in glacigenic rock flour that may be deposited in downstream lakes. Here, we present a Holocene reconstruction of glacier activity, based on sediments from Hajeren, a glacier-fed lake on northwest Spitsbergen in the High Arctic Svalbard archipelago. Owing to undisturbed sediments and robust age control, we could resolve variability on a sub-centennial scale. To ensure the accurate detection of glacier activity, we applied a toolbox of physical, magnetic and geochemical proxies in conjunction with multivariate statistics. Our findings indicate a three-stage Holocene climate history for Svalbard, driving by melt water pulses, episodic Atlantic cooling and a decline in orbitally driven summer insolation. Correspondence between inferred advances, including a Holocene glacier maximum around 9.5 ka BP, suggests forcing by the melting LIS during the Early Holocene. Following a late Holocene Thermal Maximum around 7.4 ka BP, glaciers disappeared from the catchment. Glaciers reformed around 4.2 ka BP during the regional onset of the Neoglacial, supporting previous findings. This transition did, however, not mark the onset of persistent glacier activity in the catchment, but a series of centennial-scale cycles of growth and decay, including events around 3.3 and 1.1 ka BP. As orbitally driven insolation declined towards the present, the glaciation threshold

  7. Comparison of precise orbit determination methods of zero-difference kinematic, dynamic and reduced-dynamic of GRACE-A satellite using SHORDE software

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Kai; Zhou, Xuhua; Guo, Nannan; Zhao, Gang; Xu, Kexin; Lei, Weiwei

    2017-09-01

    Zero-difference kinematic, dynamic and reduced-dynamic precise orbit determination (POD) are three methods to obtain the precise orbits of Low Earth Orbit satellites (LEOs) by using the on-board GPS observations. Comparing the differences between those methods have great significance to establish the mathematical model and is usefull for us to select a suitable method to determine the orbit of the satellite. Based on the zero-difference GPS carrier-phase measurements, Shanghai Astronomical Observatory (SHAO) has improved the early version of SHORDE and then developed it as an integrated software system, which can perform the POD of LEOs by using the above three methods. In order to introduce the function of the software, we take the Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) on-board GPS observations in January 2008 as example, then we compute the corresponding orbits of GRACE by using the SHORDE software. In order to evaluate the accuracy, we compare the orbits with the precise orbits provided by Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL). The results show that: (1) If we use the dynamic POD method, and the force models are used to represent the non-conservative forces, the average accuracy of the GRACE orbit is 2.40cm, 3.91cm, 2.34cm and 5.17cm in radial (R), along-track (T), cross-track (N) and 3D directions respectively; If we use the accelerometer observation instead of non-conservative perturbation model, the average accuracy of the orbit is 1.82cm, 2.51cm, 3.48cm and 4.68cm in R, T, N and 3D directions respectively. The result shows that if we use accelerometer observation instead of the non-conservative perturbation model, the accuracy of orbit is better. (2) When we use the reduced-dynamic POD method to get the orbits, the average accuracy of the orbit is 0.80cm, 1.36cm, 2.38cm and 2.87cm in R, T, N and 3D directions respectively. This method is carried out by setting up the pseudo-stochastic pulses to absorb the errors of atmospheric drag and other

  8. THERMAL PHASES OF EARTH-LIKE PLANETS: ESTIMATING THERMAL INERTIA FROM ECCENTRICITY, OBLIQUITY, AND DIURNAL FORCING

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cowan, Nicolas B.; Voigt, Aiko; Abbot, Dorian S.

    2012-01-01

    In order to understand the climate on terrestrial planets orbiting nearby Sun-like stars, one would like to know their thermal inertia. We use a global climate model to simulate the thermal phase variations of Earth analogs and test whether these data could distinguish between planets with different heat storage and heat transport characteristics. In particular, we consider a temperate climate with polar ice caps (like the modern Earth) and a snowball state where the oceans are globally covered in ice. We first quantitatively study the periodic radiative forcing from, and climatic response to, rotation, obliquity, and eccentricity. Orbital eccentricity and seasonal changes in albedo cause variations in the global-mean absorbed flux. The responses of the two climates to these global seasons indicate that the temperate planet has 3× the bulk heat capacity of the snowball planet due to the presence of liquid water oceans. The obliquity seasons in the temperate simulation are weaker than one would expect based on thermal inertia alone; this is due to cross-equatorial oceanic and atmospheric energy transport. Thermal inertia and cross-equatorial heat transport have qualitatively different effects on obliquity seasons, insofar as heat transport tends to reduce seasonal amplitude without inducing a phase lag. For an Earth-like planet, however, this effect is masked by the mixing of signals from low thermal inertia regions (sea ice and land) with that from high thermal inertia regions (oceans), which also produces a damped response with small phase lag. We then simulate thermal light curves as they would appear to a high-contrast imaging mission (TPF-I/Darwin). In order of importance to the present simulations, which use modern-Earth orbital parameters, the three drivers of thermal phase variations are (1) obliquity seasons, (2) diurnal cycle, and (3) global seasons. Obliquity seasons are the dominant source of phase variations for most viewing angles. A pole-on observer

  9. THERMAL PHASES OF EARTH-LIKE PLANETS: ESTIMATING THERMAL INERTIA FROM ECCENTRICITY, OBLIQUITY, AND DIURNAL FORCING

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cowan, Nicolas B. [Center for Interdisciplinary Exploration and Research in Astrophysics and Department of Physics and Astronomy, Northwestern University, 2131 Tech Drive, Evanston, IL 60208 (United States); Voigt, Aiko [Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Bundesstr. 53, D-20146 Hamburg (Germany); Abbot, Dorian S., E-mail: n-cowan@nortwestern.edu [Department of Geophysical Sciences, University of Chicago, 5734 South Ellis Avenue, Chicago, IL 60637 (United States)

    2012-09-20

    In order to understand the climate on terrestrial planets orbiting nearby Sun-like stars, one would like to know their thermal inertia. We use a global climate model to simulate the thermal phase variations of Earth analogs and test whether these data could distinguish between planets with different heat storage and heat transport characteristics. In particular, we consider a temperate climate with polar ice caps (like the modern Earth) and a snowball state where the oceans are globally covered in ice. We first quantitatively study the periodic radiative forcing from, and climatic response to, rotation, obliquity, and eccentricity. Orbital eccentricity and seasonal changes in albedo cause variations in the global-mean absorbed flux. The responses of the two climates to these global seasons indicate that the temperate planet has 3 Multiplication-Sign the bulk heat capacity of the snowball planet due to the presence of liquid water oceans. The obliquity seasons in the temperate simulation are weaker than one would expect based on thermal inertia alone; this is due to cross-equatorial oceanic and atmospheric energy transport. Thermal inertia and cross-equatorial heat transport have qualitatively different effects on obliquity seasons, insofar as heat transport tends to reduce seasonal amplitude without inducing a phase lag. For an Earth-like planet, however, this effect is masked by the mixing of signals from low thermal inertia regions (sea ice and land) with that from high thermal inertia regions (oceans), which also produces a damped response with small phase lag. We then simulate thermal light curves as they would appear to a high-contrast imaging mission (TPF-I/Darwin). In order of importance to the present simulations, which use modern-Earth orbital parameters, the three drivers of thermal phase variations are (1) obliquity seasons, (2) diurnal cycle, and (3) global seasons. Obliquity seasons are the dominant source of phase variations for most viewing angles. A

  10. Gravitational Self-Force: Orbital Mechanics Beyond Geodesic Motion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barack, Leor

    The question of motion in a gravitationally bound two-body system is a longstanding open problem of General Relativity. When the mass ratio eta; is small, the problem lends itself to a perturbative treatment, wherein corrections to the geodesic motion of the smaller object (due to radiation reaction, internal structure, etc.) are accounted for order by order in η, using the language of an effective gravitational self-force. The prospect for observing gravitational waves from compact objects inspiralling into massive black holes in the foreseeable future has in the past 15 years motivated a program to obtain a rigorous formulation of the self-force and compute it for astrophysically interesting systems. I will give a brief survey of this activity and its achievements so far, and will identify the challenges that lie ahead. As concrete examples, I will discuss recent calculations of certain conservative post-geodesic effects of the self-force, including the O(η ) correction to the precession rate of the periastron. I will highlight the way in which such calculations allow us to make a fruitful contact with other approaches to the two-body problem.

  11. Application of Semi-analytical Satellite Theory orbit propagator to orbit determination for space object catalog maintenance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Setty, Srinivas J.; Cefola, Paul J.; Montenbruck, Oliver; Fiedler, Hauke

    2016-05-01

    Catalog maintenance for Space Situational Awareness (SSA) demands an accurate and computationally lean orbit propagation and orbit determination technique to cope with the ever increasing number of observed space objects. As an alternative to established numerical and analytical methods, we investigate the accuracy and computational load of the Draper Semi-analytical Satellite Theory (DSST). The standalone version of the DSST was enhanced with additional perturbation models to improve its recovery of short periodic motion. The accuracy of DSST is, for the first time, compared to a numerical propagator with fidelity force models for a comprehensive grid of low, medium, and high altitude orbits with varying eccentricity and different inclinations. Furthermore, the run-time of both propagators is compared as a function of propagation arc, output step size and gravity field order to assess its performance for a full range of relevant use cases. For use in orbit determination, a robust performance of DSST is demonstrated even in the case of sparse observations, which is most sensitive to mismodeled short periodic perturbations. Overall, DSST is shown to exhibit adequate accuracy at favorable computational speed for the full set of orbits that need to be considered in space surveillance. Along with the inherent benefits of a semi-analytical orbit representation, DSST provides an attractive alternative to the more common numerical orbit propagation techniques.

  12. The physics of Martian weather and climate: a review

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Read, P L; Mulholland, D P; Lewis, S R

    2015-01-01

    The planet Mars hosts an atmosphere that is perhaps the closest in terms of its meteorology and climate to that of the Earth. But Mars differs from Earth in its greater distance from the Sun, its smaller size, its lack of liquid oceans and its thinner atmosphere, composed mainly of CO 2 . These factors give Mars a rather different climate to that of the Earth. In this article we review various aspects of the martian climate system from a physicist’s viewpoint, focusing on the processes that control the martian environment and comparing these with corresponding processes on Earth. These include the radiative and thermodynamical processes that determine the surface temperature and vertical structure of the atmosphere, the fluid dynamics of its atmospheric motions, and the key cycles of mineral dust and volatile transport. In many ways, the climate of Mars is as complicated and diverse as that of the Earth, with complex nonlinear feedbacks that affect its response to variations in external forcing. Recent work has shown that the martian climate is anything but static, but is almost certainly in a continual state of transient response to slowly varying insolation associated with cyclic variations in its orbit and rotation. We conclude with a discussion of the physical processes underlying these long- term climate variations on Mars, and an overview of some of the most intriguing outstanding problems that should be a focus for future observational and theoretical studies. (review)

  13. Thermal imbalance force modelling for a GPS satellite using the finite element method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vigue, Yvonne; Schutz, Bob E.

    1991-01-01

    Methods of analyzing the perturbation due to thermal radiation and determining its effects on the orbits of GPS satellites are presented, with emphasis on the FEM technique to calculate satellite solar panel temperatures which are used to determine the magnitude and direction of the thermal imbalance force. Although this force may not be responsible for all of the force mismodeling, conditions may work in combination with the thermal imbalance force to produce such accelerations on the order of 1.e-9 m/sq s. If submeter accurate orbits and centimeter-level accuracy for geophysical applications are desired, a time-dependent model of the thermal imbalance force should be used, especially when satellites are eclipsing, where the observed errors are larger than for satellites in noneclipsing orbits.

  14. Rotordynamic Forces on Centrifugal Pump Impellers

    OpenAIRE

    Franz, R.; Arndt, N.; Caughey, T. K.; Brennen, C. E.; Acosta, A. J.

    1987-01-01

    The asymmetric flow around an impeller in a volute exerts a force upon the impeller. To study the rotordynamic force on an impeller which is vibrating around its machine axis of rotation, the impeller, mounted on a dynamometer, is made to whirl in a circular orbit within the volute. The measured force is expressed as the sum of a steady radial force and an unsteady force due to the eccentric motion of the impeller. These forces were measured in separate tests on a centrifugal pump with rad...

  15. Satellite orbits in Levi-Civita space

    Science.gov (United States)

    Humi, Mayer

    2018-03-01

    In this paper we consider satellite orbits in central force field with quadratic drag using two formalisms. The first using polar coordinates in which the satellite angular momentum plays a dominant role. The second is in Levi-Civita coordinates in which the energy plays a central role. We then merge these two formalisms by introducing polar coordinates in Levi-Civita space and derive a new equation for satellite orbits which unifies these two paradigms. In this equation energy and angular momentum appear on equal footing and thus characterize the orbit by its two invariants. Using this formalism we show that equatorial orbits around oblate spheroids can be expressed analytically in terms of Elliptic functions. In the second part of the paper we derive in Levi-Civita coordinates a linearized equation for the relative motion of two spacecrafts whose trajectories are in the same plane. We carry out also a numerical verification of these equations.

  16. Computing Thermal Imbalance Forces On Satellites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vigue, Yvonne; Schutz, Robert E.; Sewell, Granville; Abusali, Pothai A. M.

    1994-01-01

    HEAT.PRO computer program calculates imbalance force caused by heating of surfaces of satellite. Calculates thermal imbalance force and determines its effect on orbit of satellite, especially where shadow cast by Earth Causes periodic changes in thermal environment around satellite. Written in FORTRAN 77.

  17. Pollen-based continental climate reconstructions at 6 and 21 ka: a global synthesis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bartlein, P.J. [University of Oregon, Department of Geography, Eugene, Oregon (United States); Harrison, S.P. [University of Bristol, School of Geographical Sciences, Bristol (United Kingdom); Macquarie University, School of Biological Sciences, North Ryde, NSW (Australia); Brewer, S. [University of Wyoming, Botany Department, Wyoming (United States); Connor, S. [University of the Algarve, Centre for Marine and Environmental Research, Faro (Portugal); Davis, B.A.S. [Ecole Polytechnique Federale de Lausanne, School of Architecture, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Lausanne (Switzerland); Gajewski, K.; Viau, A.E. [University of Ottawa, Department of Geography, Ottawa, ON (Canada); Guiot, J. [CEREGE, Aix-en-Provence cedex 4 (France); Harrison-Prentice, T.I. [GTZ, PAKLIM, Jakarta (Indonesia); Henderson, A. [University of Minnesota, Department of Geology and Geophysics, Minneapolis, MN (United States); Peyron, O. [Laboratoire Chrono-Environnement UMR 6249 CNRS-UFC UFR Sciences et Techniques, Besancon Cedex (France); Prentice, I.C. [Macquarie University, School of Biological Sciences, North Ryde, NSW (Australia); University of Bristol, QUEST, Department of Earth Sciences, Bristol (United Kingdom); Scholze, M. [University of Bristol, QUEST, Department of Earth Sciences, Bristol (United Kingdom); Seppae, H. [University of Helsinki, Department of Geology, P.O. Box 65, Helsinki (Finland); Shuman, B. [University of Wyoming, Department of Geology and Geophysics, Laramie, WY (United States); Sugita, S. [Tallinn University, Institute of Ecology, Tallinn (Estonia); Thompson, R.S. [US Geological Survey, PO Box 25046, Denver, CO (United States); Williams, J. [University of Wisconsin, Department of Geography, Madison, WI (United States); Wu, H. [Chinese Academy of Sciences, Key Laboratory of Cenozoic Geology and Environment, Institute of Geology and Geophysics, Beijing (China)

    2011-08-15

    Subfossil pollen and plant macrofossil data derived from {sup 14}C-dated sediment profiles can provide quantitative information on glacial and interglacial climates. The data allow climate variables related to growing-season warmth, winter cold, and plant-available moisture to be reconstructed. Continental-scale reconstructions have been made for the mid-Holocene (MH, around 6 ka) and Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, around 21 ka), allowing comparison with palaeoclimate simulations currently being carried out as part of the fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The synthesis of the available MH and LGM climate reconstructions and their uncertainties, obtained using modern-analogue, regression and model-inversion techniques, is presented for four temperature variables and two moisture variables. Reconstructions of the same variables based on surface-pollen assemblages are shown to be accurate and unbiased. Reconstructed LGM and MH climate anomaly patterns are coherent, consistent between variables, and robust with respect to the choice of technique. They support a conceptual model of the controls of Late Quaternary climate change whereby the first-order effects of orbital variations and greenhouse forcing on the seasonal cycle of temperature are predictably modified by responses of the atmospheric circulation and surface energy balance. (orig.)

  18. A regime shift in the Sun-Climate connection with the end of the Medieval Climate Anomaly.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smirnov, D A; Breitenbach, S F M; Feulner, G; Lechleitner, F A; Prufer, K M; Baldini, J U L; Marwan, N; Kurths, J

    2017-09-11

    Understanding the influence of changes in solar activity on Earth's climate and distinguishing it from other forcings, such as volcanic activity, remains a major challenge for palaeoclimatology. This problem is best approached by investigating how these variables influenced past climate conditions as recorded in high precision paleoclimate archives. In particular, determining if the climate system response to these forcings changes through time is critical. Here we use the Wiener-Granger causality approach along with well-established cross-correlation analysis to investigate the causal relationship between solar activity, volcanic forcing, and climate as reflected in well-established Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) rainfall proxy records from Yok Balum Cave, southern Belize. Our analysis reveals a consistent influence of volcanic activity on regional Central American climate over the last two millennia. However, the coupling between solar variability and local climate varied with time, with a regime shift around 1000-1300 CE after which the solar-climate coupling weakened considerably.

  19. Global optimum spacecraft orbit control subject to bounded thrust in presence of nonlinear and random disturbances in a low earth orbit

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tamer Mekky Ahmed Habib

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available The primary objective of this work is to develop an effective spacecraft orbit control algorithm suitable for spacecraft orbital maneuver and/or rendezvous. The actual governing equation of a spacecraft orbiting the earth is merely nonlinear. Disturbance forces resulting from aerodynamic drag, oblateness of the earth till the fourth order (i.e. J4, and random disturbances are modeled for the initial and target orbits. These disturbances increase the complexity of nonlinear governing equations. Global optimum solutions of the control algorithm parameters are determined throughout real coded genetic algorithms such that the steady state difference between the actual and desired trajectories is minimized. The resulting solutions are constrained to avoid spacecraft collision with the surface of the earth taking into account limited thrust budget.

  20. Climate simulations for 1880-2003 with GISS modelE

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hansen, J.; Lacis, A.; Miller, R.; Schmidt, G.A.; Russell, G.; Canuto, V.; Del Genio, A.; Hall, T.; Hansen, J.; Sato, M.; Kharecha, P.; Nazarenko, L.; Aleinov, I.; Bauer, S.; Chandler, M.; Faluvegi, G.; Jonas, J.; Ruedy, R.; Lo, K.; Cheng, Y.; Lacis, A.; Schmidt, G.A.; Del Genio, A.; Miller, R.; Cairns, B.; Hall, T.; Baum, E.; Cohen, A.; Fleming, E.; Jackman, C.; Friend, A.; Kelley, M.

    2007-01-01

    We carry out climate simulations for 1880-2003 with GISS modelE driven by ten measured or estimated climate forcing. An ensemble of climate model runs is carried out for each forcing acting individually and for all forcing mechanisms acting together. We compare side-by-side simulated climate change for each forcing, all forcing, observations, unforced variability among model ensemble members, and, if available, observed variability. Discrepancies between observations and simulations with all forcing are due to model deficiencies, inaccurate or incomplete forcing, and imperfect observations. Although there are notable discrepancies between model and observations, the fidelity is sufficient to encourage use of the model for simulations of future climate change. By using a fixed well-documented model and accurately defining the 1880-2003 forcing, we aim to provide a benchmark against which the effect of improvements in the model, climate forcing, and observations can be tested. Principal model deficiencies include unrealistic weak tropical El Nino-like variability and a poor distribution of sea ice, with too much sea ice in the Northern Hemisphere and too little in the Southern Hemisphere. Greatest uncertainties in the forcing are the temporal and spatial variations of anthropogenic aerosols and their indirect effects on clouds. (authors)

  1. The vertical distribution of climate forcings and feedbacks from the surface to top of atmosphere

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Previdi, Michael [Columbia University, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, NY (United States); Liepert, Beate G. [NorthWest Research Associates, Redmond, WA (United States)

    2012-08-15

    The radiative forcings and feedbacks that determine Earth's climate sensitivity are typically defined at the top-of-atmosphere (TOA) or tropopause, yet climate sensitivity itself refers to a change in temperature at the surface. In this paper, we describe how TOA radiative perturbations translate into surface temperature changes. It is shown using first principles that radiation changes at the TOA can be equated with the change in energy stored by the oceans and land surface. This ocean and land heat uptake in turn involves an adjustment of the surface radiative and non-radiative energy fluxes, with the latter being comprised of the turbulent exchange of latent and sensible heat between the surface and atmosphere. We employ the radiative kernel technique to decompose TOA radiative feedbacks in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report climate models into components associated with changes in radiative heating of the atmosphere and of the surface. (We consider the equilibrium response of atmosphere-mixed layer ocean models subjected to an instantaneous doubling of atmospheric CO{sub 2}). It is shown that most feedbacks, i.e., the temperature, water vapor and cloud feedbacks, (as well as CO{sub 2} forcing) affect primarily the turbulent energy exchange at the surface rather than the radiative energy exchange. Specifically, the temperature feedback increases the surface turbulent (radiative) energy loss by 2.87 W m{sup -2} K{sup -1} (0.60 W m{sup -2} K{sup -1}) in the multimodel mean; the water vapor feedback decreases the surface turbulent energy loss by 1.07 W m{sup -2} K{sup -1} and increases the surface radiative heating by 0.89 W m{sup -2} K{sup -1}; and the cloud feedback decreases both the turbulent energy loss and the radiative heating at the surface by 0.43 and 0.24 W m{sup -2} K{sup -1}, respectively. Since changes to the surface turbulent energy exchange are dominated in the global mean sense by changes in surface evaporation, these results serve to highlight

  2. Climatic evolution during the last century

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schuurmans, C.J.E.; Rijksuniversiteit Utrecht

    1991-01-01

    An attempt is made to list the most important changes of the coupled climate system over the last 100 years. The most obvious of these is a small, global, though non-uniform, warming. Other concepts are discussed briefly: climate change under constant external forcing and due to external forcing, short term climate changes (less than 10 years), decadal variations, changes of the atmospheric circulation, changes in variability, recent climate in longer perspective, climatic jumps as a mode of variation, detection of the greenhouse warming

  3. Future climate and surface mass balance of Svalbard glaciers in an RCP8.5 climate scenario: a study with the regional climate model MAR forced by MIROC5

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lang, C.; Fettweis, X.; Erpicum, M.

    2015-05-01

    We have performed a future projection of the climate and surface mass balance (SMB) of Svalbard with the MAR (Modèle Atmosphérique Régional) regional climate model forced by MIROC5 (Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate), following the RCP8.5 scenario at a spatial resolution of 10 km. MAR predicts a similar evolution of increasing surface melt everywhere in Svalbard followed by a sudden acceleration of melt around 2050, with a larger melt increase in the south compared to the north of the archipelago. This melt acceleration around 2050 is mainly driven by the albedo-melt feedback associated with the expansion of the ablation/bare ice zone. This effect is dampened in part as the solar radiation itself is projected to decrease due to a cloudiness increase. The near-surface temperature is projected to increase more in winter than in summer as the temperature is already close to 0 °C in summer. The model also projects a stronger winter west-to-east temperature gradient, related to the large decrease of sea ice cover around Svalbard. By 2085, SMB is projected to become negative over all of Svalbard's glaciated regions, leading to the rapid degradation of the firn layer.

  4. Future local and remote influences on Mediterranean ozone air quality and climate forcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arnold, Steve; Martin, Maria Val; Emmons, Louisa; Rap, Alex; Heald, Colette; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Tilmes, Simone

    2013-04-01

    The Mediterranean region is expected to display large increases in population over the coming decades, and to exhibit strong sensitivity to projected climate change, with increasing frequency of extreme summer temperatures and decreases in precipitation. Understanding of how these changes will affect atmospheric composition in the region is limited. The eastern Mediterranean basin has been shown to exhibit a pronounced summertime local maximum in tropospheric ozone, which impacts both local air quality and the atmospheric radiation balance. In summer, the region is subject to import of pollution from Northern Europe in the boundary layer and lower troposphere, from North American sources in the large-scale westerly flow of the free mid and upper-troposphere, as well as import of pollution lofted in the Asian monsoon and carried west to the eastern Mediterranean in anticyclonic flow in the upper troposphere over north Africa. In addition, interactions with the land-surface through biogenic emission sources and dry deposition play important roles in the Mediterranean ozone budget. Here we use the NCAR Community Earth System Model (CESM) to investigate how tropospheric ozone in the Mediterranean region responds to climate, land surface and global emissions changes between present day and 2050. We simulate climate and atmospheric composition for the year 2050, based on greenhouse gas abundances, trace gas and aerosol emissions and land cover and use from two representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios (RCP4.5 & RCP8.5), designed for use by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5(CMIP5) experiments in support of the IPCC. By comparing these simulations with a present-day scenario, we investigate the effects of predicted changes in climate and emissions on air quality and climate forcing over the Mediterranean region. The simulations suggest decreases in boundary layer ozone and sulfate aerosol throughout the tropospheric column over the Mediterranean

  5. Magnus Effect on a Spinning Satellite in Low Earth Orbit

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramjatan, Sahadeo; Fitz-Coy, Norman; Yew, Alvin Garwai

    2016-01-01

    A spinning body in a flow field generates an aerodynamic lift or Magnus effect that displaces the body in a direction normal to the freestream flow. Earth orbiting satellites with substantial body rotation in appreciable atmospheric densities may generate a Magnus force to perturb orbital dynamics. We investigate the feasibility of using this effect for spacecraft at a perigee of 80km using the Systems Tool Kit (STK). Results show that for a satellite of reasonable properties, the Magnus effect doubles the amount of time in orbit. Orbital decay was greatly mitigated for satellites spinning at 10000 and 15000RPM. This study demonstrates that the Magnus effect has the potential to sustain a spacecraft's orbit at a low perigee altitude and could also serve as an orbital maneuver capability.

  6. Hypersonic rarefied-flow aerodynamics inferred from Shuttle Orbiter acceleration measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blanchard, R. C.; Hinson, E. W.

    1989-01-01

    Data obtained from multiple flights of sensitive accelerometers on the Space Shuttle Orbiter during reentry have been used to develop an improved aerodynamic model for the Orbiter normal- and axial-force coefficients in hypersonic rarefied flow. The lack of simultaneous atmospheric density measurements was overcome in part by using the ratio of normal-to-axial acceleration, in which density cancels, as a constraint. Differences between the preflight model and the flight-acceleration-derived model in the continuum regime are attributed primarily to real gas effects. New insights are gained into the variation of the force coefficients in the transition between the continuum regime and free molecule flow.

  7. Some New Locally Optimal Control Laws for Sailcraft Dynamics in Heliocentric Orbits

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. A. Abd El-Salam

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The concept of solar sailing and its developing spacecraft is presented. The gravitational and solar radiation forces are considered. The effect of source of radiation pressure and the force due to coronal mass ejections and solar wind on the sailcraft configurations is modeled. Some analytical control laws with some mentioned input constraints for optimizing sailcraft dynamics in heliocentric orbit using lagrange’s planetary equations are obtained. Optimum force vector in a required direction is maximized by deriving optimal sail cone angle. Ignoring the absorbed and diffusely reflected parts of the radiation, some special cases are obtained. New control laws that maximize thrust to obtain certain required maximization in some particular orbital element are obtained.

  8. Why must a solar forcing be larger than a CO2 forcing to cause the same global mean surface temperature change?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Modak, Angshuman; Bala, Govindasamy; Cao, Long; Caldeira, Ken

    2016-01-01

    Many previous studies have shown that a solar forcing must be greater than a CO 2 forcing to cause the same global mean surface temperature change but a process-based mechanistic explanation is lacking in the literature. In this study, we investigate the physical mechanisms responsible for the lower efficacy of solar forcing compared to an equivalent CO 2 forcing. Radiative forcing is estimated using the Gregory method that regresses top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiative flux against the change in global mean surface temperature. For a 2.25% increase in solar irradiance that produces the same long term global mean warming as a doubling of CO 2 concentration, we estimate that the efficacy of solar forcing is ∼80% relative to CO 2 forcing in the NCAR CAM5 climate model. We find that the fast tropospheric cloud adjustments especially over land and stratospheric warming in the first four months cause the slope of the regression between the TOA net radiative fluxes and surface temperature to be steeper in the solar forcing case. This steeper slope indicates a stronger net negative feedback and hence correspondingly a larger solar forcing than CO 2 forcing for the same equilibrium surface warming. Evidence is provided that rapid land surface warming in the first four months sets up a land-sea contrast that markedly affects radiative forcing and the climate feedback parameter over this period. We also confirm the robustness of our results using simulations from the Hadley Centre climate model. Our study has important implications for estimating the magnitude of climate change caused by volcanic eruptions, solar geoengineering and past climate changes caused by change in solar irradiance such as Maunder minimum. (letter)

  9. CERES Top-of-Atmosphere Earth Radiation Budget Climate Data Record: Accounting for in-Orbit Changes in Instrument Calibration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Norman G. Loeb

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available The Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES project provides observations of Earth’s radiation budget using measurements from CERES instruments onboard the Terra, Aqua and Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (S-NPP satellites. As the objective is to create a long-term climate data record, it is necessary to periodically reprocess the data in order to incorporate the latest calibration changes and algorithm improvements. Here, we focus on the improvements and validation of CERES Terra and Aqua radiances in Edition 4, which are used to generate higher-level climate data products. Onboard sources indicate that the total (TOT channel response to longwave (LW radiation has increased relative to the start of the missions by 0.4% to 1%. In the shortwave (SW, the sensor response change ranges from −0.4% to 0.6%. To account for in-orbit changes in SW spectral response function (SRF, direct nadir radiance comparisons between instrument pairs on the same satellite are made and an improved wavelength dependent degradation model is used to adjust the SRF of the instrument operating in a rotating azimuth plane scan mode. After applying SRF corrections independently to CERES Terra and Aqua, monthly variations amongst these instruments are highly correlated and the standard deviation in the difference of monthly anomalies is 0.2 Wm−2 for ocean and 0.3 Wm−2 for land/desert. Additionally, trends in CERES Terra and Aqua monthly anomalies are consistent to 0.21 Wm−2 per decade for ocean and 0.31 Wm−2 per decade for land/desert. In the LW, adjustments to the TOT channel SRF are made to ensure that removal of the contribution from the SW portion of the TOT channel with SW channel radiance measurements during daytime is consistent throughout the mission. Accordingly, anomalies in day–night LW difference in Edition 4 are more consistent compared to Edition 3, particularly for the Aqua land/desert case.

  10. NanoSail - D Orbital and Attitude Dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heaton, Andrew F.; Faller, Brent F.; Katan, Chelsea K.

    2013-01-01

    NanoSail-D unfurled January 20th, 2011 and successfully demonstrated the deployment and deorbit capability of a solar sail in low Earth orbit. The orbit was strongly perturbed by solar radiation pressure, aerodynamic drag, and oblate gravity which were modeled using STK HPOP. A comparison of the ballistic coefficient history to the orbit parameters exhibits a strong relationship between orbital lighting, the decay rate of the mean semi-major axis and mean eccentricity. A similar comparison of mean solar area using the STK HPOP solar radiation pressure model exhibits a strong correlation of solar radiation pressure to mean eccentricity and mean argument of perigee. NanoSail-D was not actively controlled and had no capability on-board for attitude or orbit determination. To estimate attitude dynamics we created a 3-DOF attitude dynamics simulation that incorporated highly realistic estimates of perturbing forces into NanoSail-D torque models. By comparing the results of this simulation to the orbital behavior and ground observations of NanoSail-D, we conclude that there is a coupling between the orbit and attitude dynamics as well as establish approximate limits on the location of the NanoSail-D solar center of pressure. Both of these observations contribute valuable data for future solar sail designs and missions.

  11. Orbital- to Sub-Orbital-Scale Cyclicity in Seismic Reflections and Sediment Character in Early to Middle Pleistocene Mudstone, Santa Barbara Basin, California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peterson, C. D.; Behl, R. J.; Nicholson, C.; Lisiecki, L. E.; Sorlien, C. C.

    2009-12-01

    High-resolution seismic reflection records and well logs from the Santa Barbara Channel suggest that large parts of the Pleistocene succession records climate variability on orbital to sub-orbital scales with remarkable sensitivity, much like the well-studied sediments of the last glacial cycle (ODP Site 893). Spectral analysis of seismic reflection data and gamma ray logs from stratigraphically similar Pleistocene sections finds similar cyclic character and shifts through the section. This correlation suggests that acoustic impedance and physical properties of sediment are linked by basin-scale, likely climatically-driven, oscillations in lithologic composition and fabric during deposition, and that seismic profiling can provide a method for remote identification and correlation of orbital- and sub-orbital-scale sedimentary cyclicity. Where it crops out along the northern shelf of the central Santa Barbara Channel, the early to middle Pleistocene succession (~1.8-1.2 Ma) is a bathyal hemipelagic mudstone with remarkably rhythmic planar bedding, finely laminated fabric, and well-preserved foraminifera, none of which have been significantly altered, or obscured by post-depositional diagenesis or tectonic deformation. Unlike the coarser, turbiditic successions in the central Ventura and Los Angeles basins, this sequence has the potential to record Quaternary global climate change at high resolution. Seismic reflection data (towed chirp) collected on the R/V Melville 2008 Cruise (MV08) penetrate 10's of meters below seafloor into a ~1 km-long sequence of south-dipping seismic reflectors. Sampling parallel to the seafloor permits acquisition of consistent signal amplitude for similar reflectors without spreading loss. Based on established age ranges for this section, sedimentation rates may range from 0.4 to 1.4 meters/kyr, therefore suggesting that the most powerful cycles are orbital- to sub-orbital-scale. Discrete sets of cycles with high power show an abrupt shift

  12. Man -made greenhouse gases trigger unified force to start global warming impacts referred to as climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Karishnan, K.J.; Kalam, A.

    2011-01-01

    Global warming problems due to man-made greenhouse gases (GHGs), appear to be a serious concern and threat to the globe. CO/sub 2/, O/sub 3, NOx and HFC's are the main greenhouse gases and CO/sub 2/ is one of the main cause of global warming. CO/sub 2/ is emitted from burning fossil fuels to produce electricity from power plants and burning of gasoline in vehicles and airplanes. Global greenhouse gases and its sources in regions are discussed in this paper. This paper initially discusses the CO/sub 2/ emissions and the recycle of CO/sub 2/ in biodiesel. This paper mainly focuses on 'Unified Force'. The increase of H/sub 2/O in the sea due to warming of the globe triggers the 'Unified Force' or 'Self-Compressive Surrounding Pressure Force' which is proportional to the H/sub 2/O level in the sea to start global warming impacts referred to as climate change. This paper also points out the climate change and the ten surprising results of global warming. Finally, this paper suggests switching from fossil fuel technology to green energy technologies like biodiesel which recycles CO/sub 2/ emissions and also Hydrogen Energy and Fuel Cell Technologies which eradicates global warming impacts. The benefits of switching from fossil fuel to biodiesel and Hydrogen Energy utilization includes reduction of greenhouse gas emissions and pollution, economic independence by having distributed production and burning of biodiesel does not add extra CO/sub 2/ to the air that contributes global warming impacts. (author)

  13. Climate of the last millennium: a sensitivity study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bertrand, Cedric [Royal Meterological Inst. of Belgium, Brussels (Belgium); Loutre, Marie-France; Crucifix, Michel; Berger, Andre [Univ. catholique de Louvain, Louvain la-neuve (Belgium). Inst. d' Astronomie et de Geophysique G. Lemaitre

    2002-05-01

    Seventy-one sensitivity experiments have been performed using a two-dimensional sector-averaged global climate model to assess the potential impact of six different factors on the last millennium climate and in particular on the surface air temperature evolution. Both natural (i.e. solar and volcanism) and anthropogenically-induced (i.e. deforestation, additional greenhouse gases, and tropospheric aerosol burden) climate forcings have been considered. Comparisons of climate reconstructions with model results indicate that all the investigated forcings are needed to simulate the surface air temperature evolution. Due to uncertainties in historical climate forcings and temperature reconstructions, the relative importance of a particular forcing in the explanation of the recorded temperature variance is largely function of the forcing time series used. Nevertheless, our results indicate that whatever the historical solar and volcanic reconstructions may be, these externally driven natural climate forcings are unable to give climate responses comparable in magnitude and time to the late-2Oth-century temperature warming while for earlier periods combination of solar and volcanic forcings can explain the Little Ice Age and the Medieval Warm Period. Only the greenhouse gas forcing allows the model to simulate an accelerated warming rate during the last three decades. The best guess simulation (largest similarity with the reconstruction) for the period starting 1850 AD requires however to include anthropogenic sulphate forcing as well as the impact of deforestation to constrain the magnitude of the greenhouse gas twentieth century warming to better fit the observation. On the contrary, prior to 1850 AD mid-latitude land clearance tends to reinforce the Little Ice age in our simulations.

  14. Climate of an Earth-Like World with Changing Eccentricity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kohler, Susanna

    2017-02-01

    Having a giant planet like Jupiter next door can really wreak havoc on your orbit! A new study examines what such a bad neighbor might mean for the long-term climate of an Earth-like planet.Influence of a Bad NeighborThe presence of a Jupiter-like giant planet in a nearby orbit can significantly affect how terrestrial planets evolve dynamically, causing elements like the planets orbital eccentricities and axial tilts to change over time. Earth is saved this inconvenience Jupiter isnt close enough to significantly influence us, and our large moon stabilizes our orbit against Jupiters tugs.Top panels: Authors simulationoutcomes for Case1, in which the planets eccentricity varies from 0 to 0.283 over 6500 years. Bottom panels: Outcomes for Case 2, in which the planets eccentricity varies from 0 to 0.066 over 4500 years. The highereccentricities reached in Case 1 causes the climate parameters to vary more widely. Click for a better look! [Way Georgakarakos 2017]Mars, on the other hand, isnt as lucky: its possible that Jupiters gravitational pull causes Marss axial tilt, for instance, to evolve through a range as large as 0 to 60 degrees on timescales of millions of years! Marss orbital eccentricity is similarly thought to vary due to Jupiters influence, and both of these factors play a major role in determining Marss climate.As exoplanet missions discover more planets many of which are Earth-like we must carefully consider which among these are most likely to be capable of sustaining life. If having a nearby neighbor like a Jupiter can tug an Earth-like world into an orbit with varying eccentricity, how does this affect the planets climate? Will the planet remain temperate? Or will it develop a runaway heating or cooling effect as it orbits, rendering it uninhabitable?Oceans and OrbitsTo examine these questions, two scientists have built the first ever 3D global climate model simulations of an Earth-like world using a fully coupled ocean (necessary for understanding

  15. Climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1990-01-01

    In this paper, the authors discuss in brief the magnitude and rate of past changes in climate and examine the various factors influencing climate in order to place the potential warming due to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations in context. Feedback mechanisms that can amplify or lessen imposed climate changes are discussed next. The overall sensitivity of climate to changes in forcing is then considered, followed by a discussion of the time-dependent response of the Earth system. The focus is on global temperature as an indicator for the magnitude of climatic change

  16. Analysis of the Effect of UTI-UTC to High Precision Orbit

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shin, Dongseok; Kwak, Sunghee; Kim, Tag-Gon

    1999-12-01

    As the spatial resolution of remote sensing satellites becomes higher, very accurate determination of the position of a LEO (Low Earth Orbit) satellite is demanding more than ever. Non-symmetric Earth gravity is the major perturbation force to LEO satellites. Since the orbit propagation is performed in the celestial frame while Earth gravity is defined in the terrestrial frame, it is required to convert the coordinates of the satellite from one to the other accurately. Unless the coordinate conversion between the two frames is performed accurately the orbit propagation calculates incorrect Earth gravitational force at a specific time instant, and hence, causes errors in orbit prediction. The coordinate conversion between the two frames involves precession, nutation, Earth rotation and polar motion. Among these factors, unpredictability and uncertainty of Earth rotation, called UTI-UTC, is the largest error source. In this paper, the effect of UTI-UTC on the accuracy of the LEO propagation is introduced, tested and analzed. Considering the maximum unpredictability of UTI-UTC, 0.9 seconds, the meaningful order of non-spherical Earth harmonic functions is derived.

  17. High resolution chronology of late Cretaceous-early Tertiary events determined from 21,000 yr orbital-climatic cycles in marine sediments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herbert, Timothy D.; Dhondt, Steven

    1988-01-01

    A number of South Atlantic sites cored by the Deep Sea Drilling Project (DSDP) recovered late Cretaceous and early Tertiary sediments with alternating light-dark, high-low carbonate content. The sedimentary oscillations were turned into time series by digitizing color photographs of core segments at a resolution of about 5 points/cm. Spectral analysis of these records indicates prominent periodicity at 25 to 35 cm in the Cretaceous intervals, and about 15 cm in the early Tertiary sediments. The absolute period of the cycles that is determined from paleomagnetic calibration at two sites is 20,000 to 25,000 yr, and almost certainly corresponds to the period of the earth's precessional cycle. These sequences therefore contain an internal chronometer to measure events across the K/T extinction boundary at this scale of resolution. The orbital metronome was used to address several related questions: the position of the K/T boundary within magnetic chron 29R, the fluxes of biogenic and detrital material to the deep sea immediately before and after the K/T event, the duration of the Sr anomaly, and the level of background climatic variability in the latest Cretaceous time. The carbonate/color cycles that were analyzed contain primary records of ocean carbonate productivity and chemistry, as evidenced by bioturbational mixing of adjacent beds and the weak lithification of the rhythmic sequences. It was concluded that sedimentary sequences that contain orbital cyclicity are capable of providing resolution of dramatic events in earth history with much greater precision than obtainable through radiometric methods. The data show no evidence for a gradual climatic deterioration prior to the K/T extinction event, and argue for a geologically rapid revolution at this horizon.

  18. Climate changes over the past millennium: Relationships with Mediterranean climates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mann, M.E.

    2006-01-01

    Evidence is reviewed for climate change and its causes over the interval spanning roughly the past millennium. Particular emphasis is placed on patterns of climate change influencing Mediterranean climates of the Northern Hemisphere. The evidence is taken from studies using high-resolution climate proxy data sources, and climate modeling simulations. The available evidence suggests that forced changes in dynamical modes of variability including the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) have played a key role in the patterns of climate variability in Mediterranean regions over the past millennium

  19. Exo-Milankovitch Cycles. I. Orbits and Rotation States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deitrick, Russell; Barnes, Rory; Quinn, Thomas R.; Armstrong, John; Charnay, Benjamin; Wilhelm, Caitlyn

    2018-02-01

    The obliquity of the Earth, which controls our seasons, varies by only ∼2.°5 over ∼40,000 years, and its eccentricity varies by only ∼0.05 over 100,000 years. Nonetheless, these small variations influence Earth’s ice ages. For exoplanets, however, variations can be significantly larger. Previous studies of the habitability of moonless Earth-like exoplanets have found that high obliquities, high eccentricities, and dynamical variations can extend the outer edge of the habitable zone by preventing runaway glaciation (snowball states). We expand upon these studies by exploring the orbital dynamics with a semianalytic model that allows us to map broad regions of parameter space. We find that, in general, the largest drivers of obliquity variations are secular spin–orbit resonances. We show how the obliquity varies in several test cases, including Kepler-62 f, across a wide range of orbital and spin parameters. These obliquity variations, alongside orbital variations, will have a dramatic impact on the climates of such planets.

  20. Constraining Transient Climate Sensitivity Using Coupled Climate Model Simulations of Volcanic Eruptions

    KAUST Repository

    Merlis, Timothy M.; Held, Isaac M.; Stenchikov, Georgiy L.; Zeng, Fanrong; Horowitz, Larry W.

    2014-01-01

    Coupled climate model simulations of volcanic eruptions and abrupt changes in CO2 concentration are compared in multiple realizations of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Climate Model, version 2.1 (GFDL CM2.1). The change in global-mean surface temperature (GMST) is analyzed to determine whether a fast component of the climate sensitivity of relevance to the transient climate response (TCR; defined with the 1%yr-1 CO2-increase scenario) can be estimated from shorter-time-scale climate changes. The fast component of the climate sensitivity estimated from the response of the climate model to volcanic forcing is similar to that of the simulations forced by abrupt CO2 changes but is 5%-15% smaller than the TCR. In addition, the partition between the top-of-atmosphere radiative restoring and ocean heat uptake is similar across radiative forcing agents. The possible asymmetry between warming and cooling climate perturbations, which may affect the utility of volcanic eruptions for estimating the TCR, is assessed by comparing simulations of abrupt CO2 doubling to abrupt CO2 halving. There is slightly less (~5%) GMST change in 0.5 × CO2 simulations than in 2 × CO2 simulations on the short (~10 yr) time scales relevant to the fast component of the volcanic signal. However, inferring the TCR from volcanic eruptions is more sensitive to uncertainties from internal climate variability and the estimation procedure. The response of the GMST to volcanic eruptions is similar in GFDL CM2.1 and GFDL Climate Model, version 3 (CM3), even though the latter has a higher TCR associated with a multidecadal time scale in its response. This is consistent with the expectation that the fast component of the climate sensitivity inferred from volcanic eruptions is a lower bound for the TCR.

  1. Constraining Transient Climate Sensitivity Using Coupled Climate Model Simulations of Volcanic Eruptions

    KAUST Repository

    Merlis, Timothy M.

    2014-10-01

    Coupled climate model simulations of volcanic eruptions and abrupt changes in CO2 concentration are compared in multiple realizations of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Climate Model, version 2.1 (GFDL CM2.1). The change in global-mean surface temperature (GMST) is analyzed to determine whether a fast component of the climate sensitivity of relevance to the transient climate response (TCR; defined with the 1%yr-1 CO2-increase scenario) can be estimated from shorter-time-scale climate changes. The fast component of the climate sensitivity estimated from the response of the climate model to volcanic forcing is similar to that of the simulations forced by abrupt CO2 changes but is 5%-15% smaller than the TCR. In addition, the partition between the top-of-atmosphere radiative restoring and ocean heat uptake is similar across radiative forcing agents. The possible asymmetry between warming and cooling climate perturbations, which may affect the utility of volcanic eruptions for estimating the TCR, is assessed by comparing simulations of abrupt CO2 doubling to abrupt CO2 halving. There is slightly less (~5%) GMST change in 0.5 × CO2 simulations than in 2 × CO2 simulations on the short (~10 yr) time scales relevant to the fast component of the volcanic signal. However, inferring the TCR from volcanic eruptions is more sensitive to uncertainties from internal climate variability and the estimation procedure. The response of the GMST to volcanic eruptions is similar in GFDL CM2.1 and GFDL Climate Model, version 3 (CM3), even though the latter has a higher TCR associated with a multidecadal time scale in its response. This is consistent with the expectation that the fast component of the climate sensitivity inferred from volcanic eruptions is a lower bound for the TCR.

  2. Return to Venus of AKATSUKI, the Japanese Venus Orbiter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nakamura, M.; Iwagami, N.; Satoh, T.; Taguchi, M.; Watanabe, S.; Takahashi, Y.; Imamura, T.; Suzuki, M.; Ueno, M.; Yamazaki, A.; Fukuhara, T.; Yamada, M.; Ishii, N.; Ogohara, K.

    2011-12-01

    Japanese Venus Climate Orbiter 'AKATSUKI' (PLANET-C) was proposed in 2001 with strong support by international Venus science community and approved as an ISAS mission soon after the proposal. AKATSUKI and ESA's Venus Express complement each other in Venus climate study. Various coordinated observations using the two spacecraft have been planned. Also participating scientists from US have been selected. Its science target is to understand the climate of Venus. The mission life we expected was more than 2 Earth years in Venus orbit. AKATSUKI was successfully launched at 06:58:22JST on May 21, by H-IIA F17. After the separation from H-IIA, the telemetry from AKATSUKI was normally detected by DSN Goldstone station (10:00JST) and the solar cell paddles' expansion was confirmed. AKATSUKI was put into the 3-axis stabilized mode in the initial operation from Uchinoura station and the critical operation was finished at 20:00JST on the same day. The malfunction, which happened during the Venus Orbit Insertion (VOI) on7 Dec, 2010 is as follows. We set all commands on Dec. 5. Attitude control for Venus orbit insertion (VOI) was automatically done on Dec. 6. Orbital maneuver engine (OME) was fired 08:49 JST on Dec. 7. 1min. after firing the spacecraft went into the occultation region and we had no telemetry, but we expected to continuous firing for 12min. Recording on the spacecraft told us later that, unfortunately the firing continued just 152sec. and stopped. The reason of the malfunction of the OME was the blocking of check valve of the gas pressure line to push the fuel to the engine. We failed to make the spacecraft the Venus orbiter, and it is rotating the sun with the orbital period of 203 days. As the Venus orbit the sun with the period of 225 days, AKATSUKI has a chance to meet Venus again in 5 or 6 years depending on the orbit correction plan. Let us summarize the present situation of AKATSUKI. Most of the fuel still remains. But the condition of the propulsion

  3. Biennial-Aligned Lunisolar-Forcing of ENSO: Implications for Simplified Climate Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pukite, P. R.

    2017-12-01

    implications for vastly simplifying global climate models due to the straightforward application of a well-known and well-calibrated forcing. [1] Na, Sung-Ho, et al. "Characteristics of Perturbations in Recent Length of Day and Polar Motion." Journal of Astronomy and Space Sciences 30 (2013): 33-41.

  4. Orbital Eccentricity and the Stability of Planets in the Alpha Centauri System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lissauer, Jack

    2016-01-01

    Planets on initially circular orbits are typically more dynamically stable than planets initially having nonzero eccentricities. However, the presence of a major perturber that forces periodic oscillations of planetary eccentricity can alter this situation. We investigate the dependance of system lifetime on initial eccentricity for planets orbiting one star within the alpha Centauri system. Our results show that initial conditions chosen to minimize free eccentricity can substantially increase stability compared to planets on circular orbits.

  5. Combined fishing and climate forcing in the southern Benguela upwelling ecosystem: an end-to-end modelling approach reveals dampened effects.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Morgane Travers-Trolet

    Full Text Available The effects of climate and fishing on marine ecosystems have usually been studied separately, but their interactions make ecosystem dynamics difficult to understand and predict. Of particular interest to management, the potential synergism or antagonism between fishing pressure and climate forcing is analysed in this paper, using an end-to-end ecosystem model of the southern Benguela ecosystem, built from coupling hydrodynamic, biogeochemical and multispecies fish models (ROMS-N2P2Z2D2-OSMOSE. Scenarios of different intensities of upwelling-favourable wind stress combined with scenarios of fishing top-predator fish were tested. Analyses of isolated drivers show that the bottom-up effect of the climate forcing propagates up the food chain whereas the top-down effect of fishing cascades down to zooplankton in unfavourable environmental conditions but dampens before it reaches phytoplankton. When considering both climate and fishing drivers together, it appears that top-down control dominates the link between top-predator fish and forage fish, whereas interactions between the lower trophic levels are dominated by bottom-up control. The forage fish functional group appears to be a central component of this ecosystem, being the meeting point of two opposite trophic controls. The set of combined scenarios shows that fishing pressure and upwelling-favourable wind stress have mostly dampened effects on fish populations, compared to predictions from the separate effects of the stressors. Dampened effects result in biomass accumulation at the top predator fish level but a depletion of biomass at the forage fish level. This should draw our attention to the evolution of this functional group, which appears as both structurally important in the trophic functioning of the ecosystem, and very sensitive to climate and fishing pressures. In particular, diagnoses considering fishing pressure only might be more optimistic than those that consider combined effects

  6. Reconstruction of the Eemian climate using a fully coupled Earth system model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rybak, Oleg; Volodin, Evgeny; Morozova, Polina; Huybrechts, Philippe

    2017-04-01

    temperatures and precipitation fields generated by the INMCM. To provide interactive coupling of the INMCM and the GrISM, we employ a special energy- and water balance model (EWBM-G), which serves as a buffer providing effective data exchange between sub-models. EWBM-G operates in a rectangle domain including Greenland and calculates annual surface mass balance (further transferred as an external forcing to the GrISM) and fresh water flux (transferred to the oceanic block of the INMCM). Orbital parameters of the LIG were set with 1 kyr step with further interpolation to 100 years. Assuming concentrations of greenhouse gases during the LIG were not very much different from the preindustrial values, this potential forcing was neglected. Climatic block of the ESM was called every 100 model years to follow changes in orbital forcing. AISM and GrISM were asynchronously coupled to sub-models of the atmosphere and the ocean with the ratio of model years as 100 to 1. Obtained fields of deviations of air surface temperature from preindustrial values correspond in general to the estimates made in earlier studies. Evaluated contribution of the Greenland ice sheet to the global sea level rise (approximately 2 m) supports the newest estimates based on model results and proxy data analysis.

  7. Orbital Dynamics and Habitability of Exoplanets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deitrick, Russell J.

    's Pleistocene ice ages. Mutual inclinations lead not only to larger variations in a planet's obliquity, but also uncover secular spin-orbit resonances, which lead to yet more dramatic behavior. I modeled the obliquity evolution of planets in this highly non-linear dynamical regime. Connecting the dynamical models to an simple climate model with ice sheets, I modeled the effects of such dynamical evolution on an Earth-like planet's climate. As expected, such "exo-Milankovitch cycles" can be rapid and dramatic, often leading to complete collapse into a snowball state. By demonstrating a handful of the many ways dynamics can influence habitability, this research provides context to observations of exoplanets and connects to one of the key goals of astrobiology, to "Determine the potential for habitable planets beyond the Solar System, and characterize those that are observable" (Des Marais et al., 2008). It provides tools and techniques that may be used to help prioritize exoplanet targets for characterization missions when very little information is known other than orbital properties. It also demonstrates how orbital evolution affects observable quantities like albedo, and will assist in the interpretation of spectra.

  8. Multi-level emulation of complex climate model responses to boundary forcing data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tran, Giang T.; Oliver, Kevin I. C.; Holden, Philip B.; Edwards, Neil R.; Sóbester, András; Challenor, Peter

    2018-04-01

    Climate model components involve both high-dimensional input and output fields. It is desirable to efficiently generate spatio-temporal outputs of these models for applications in integrated assessment modelling or to assess the statistical relationship between such sets of inputs and outputs, for example, uncertainty analysis. However, the need for efficiency often compromises the fidelity of output through the use of low complexity models. Here, we develop a technique which combines statistical emulation with a dimensionality reduction technique to emulate a wide range of outputs from an atmospheric general circulation model, PLASIM, as functions of the boundary forcing prescribed by the ocean component of a lower complexity climate model, GENIE-1. Although accurate and detailed spatial information on atmospheric variables such as precipitation and wind speed is well beyond the capability of GENIE-1's energy-moisture balance model of the atmosphere, this study demonstrates that the output of this model is useful in predicting PLASIM's spatio-temporal fields through multi-level emulation. Meaningful information from the fast model, GENIE-1 was extracted by utilising the correlation between variables of the same type in the two models and between variables of different types in PLASIM. We present here the construction and validation of several PLASIM variable emulators and discuss their potential use in developing a hybrid model with statistical components.

  9. climate change: causes, effects and mitigation measures-a review

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    BARTH EKWUEME

    Both natural and human causes of climate change including the earth's orbital changes, solar variations .... analysis supported by climate models have revealed that cloud ... clouds could actually exert a small cooling effect as temperature ...

  10. Synchronous fire activity in the tropical high Andes: an indication of regional climate forcing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Román-Cuesta, R M; Carmona-Moreno, C; Lizcano, G; New, M; Silman, M; Knoke, T; Malhi, Y; Oliveras, I; Asbjornsen, H; Vuille, M

    2014-06-01

    Global climate models suggest enhanced warming of the tropical mid and upper troposphere, with larger temperature rise rates at higher elevations. Changes in fire activity are amongst the most significant ecological consequences of rising temperatures and changing hydrological properties in mountainous ecosystems, and there is a global evidence of increased fire activity with elevation. Whilst fire research has become popular in the tropical lowlands, much less is known of the tropical high Andean region (>2000 masl, from Colombia to Bolivia). This study examines fire trends in the high Andes for three ecosystems, the Puna, the Paramo and the Yungas, for the period 1982-2006. We pose three questions: (i) is there an increased fire response with elevation? (ii) does the El Niño- Southern Oscillation control fire activity in this region? (iii) are the observed fire trends human driven (e.g., human practices and their effects on fuel build-up) or climate driven? We did not find evidence of increased fire activity with elevation but, instead, a quasicyclic and synchronous fire response in Ecuador, Peru and Bolivia, suggesting the influence of high-frequency climate forcing on fire responses on a subcontinental scale, in the high Andes. ENSO variability did not show a significant relation to fire activity for these three countries, partly because ENSO variability did not significantly relate to precipitation extremes, although it strongly did to temperature extremes. Whilst ENSO did not individually lead the observed regional fire trends, our results suggest a climate influence on fire activity, mainly through a sawtooth pattern of precipitation (increased rainfall before fire-peak seasons (t-1) followed by drought spells and unusual low temperatures (t0), which is particularly common where fire is carried by low fuel loads (e.g., grasslands and fine fuel). This climatic sawtooth appeared as the main driver of fire trends, above local human influences and fuel build

  11. Analysis of the Effect of UTI-UTC to High Precision Orbit Propagation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dongseok Shin

    1999-12-01

    Full Text Available As the spatial resolution of remote sensing satellites becomes higher, very accurate determination of the position of a LEO (Low Earth Orbit satellite is demanding more than ever. Non-symmetric Earth gravity is the major perturbation force to LEO satellites. Since the orbit propagation is performed in the celestial frame while Earth gravity is defined in the terrestrial frame, it is required to convert the coordinates of the satellite from one to the other accurately. Unless the coordinate conversion between the two frames is performed accurately the orbit propagation calculates incorrect Earth gravitational force at a specific time instant, and hence, causes errors in orbit prediction. The coordinate conversion between the two frames involves precession, nutation, Earth rotation and polar motion. Among these factors, unpredictability and uncertainty of Earth rotation, called UTI-UTC, is the largest error source. In this paper, the effect of UTI-UTC on the accuracy of the LEO propagation is introduced, tested and analzed. Considering the maximum unpredictability of UTI-UTC, 0.9 seconds, the meaningful order of non-spherical Earth harmonic functions is derived.

  12. Effects of solar radiation on the orbits of small particles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lyttleton, R. A.

    1976-01-01

    A modification of the Robertson (1937) equations of particle motion in the presence of solar radiation is developed which allows for partial reflection of sunlight as a result of rapid and varying particle rotations caused by interaction with the solar wind. The coefficients and forces in earlier forms of the equations are compared with those in the present equations, and secular rates of change of particle orbital elements are determined. Orbital dimensions are calculated in terms of time, probable sizes and densities of meteoric and cometary particles are estimated, and times of infall to the sun are computed for a particle moving in an almost circular orbit and a particle moving in an elliptical orbit of high eccentricity. Changes in orbital elements are also determined for particles from a long-period sun-grazing comet. The results show that the time of infall to the sun from a highly eccentric orbit is substantially shorter than from a circular orbit with a radius equal to the mean distance in the eccentric orbit. The possibility is considered that the free orbital kinetic energy of particles drawn into the sun may be the energy source for the solar corona.

  13. Assessing the sensitivity of the North Atlantic Ocean circulation to freshwater perturbation in various glacial climate states

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Meerbeeck, Cedric J. van; Renssen, Hans [VU University Amsterdam, Section Climate Change and Landscape Dynamics, Department of Earth Sciences, Amsterdam (Netherlands); Roche, Didier M. [VU University Amsterdam, Section Climate Change and Landscape Dynamics, Department of Earth Sciences, Amsterdam (Netherlands); Laboratoire CEA/INSU-CNRS/UVSQ, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l' Environnement (LSCE/IPSL), Gif sur Yvette (France)

    2011-11-15

    A striking characteristic of glacial climate in the North Atlantic region is the recurrence of abrupt shifts between cold stadials and mild interstadials. These shifts have been associated with abrupt changes in Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) mode, possibly in response to glacial meltwater perturbations. However, it is poorly understood why they were more clearly expressed during Marine Isotope Stage 3 (MIS3, {proportional_to}60-27 ka BP) than during Termination 1 (T1, {proportional_to}18-10 ka BP) and especially around the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, {proportional_to}23-19 ka BP). One clue may reside in varying climate forcings, making MIS3 and T1 generally milder than LGM. To investigate this idea, we evaluate in a climate model how ice sheet size, atmospheric greenhouse gas concentration and orbital insolation changes between 56 ka BP (=56k), 21k and 12.5k affect the glacial AMOC response to additional freshwater forcing. We have performed three ensemble simulations with the earth system model LOVECLIM using those forcings. We find that the AMOC mode in the mild glacial climate type (56k and 12.5k), with deep convection in the Labrador Sea and the Nordic Seas, is more sensitive to a constant 0.15 Sv freshwater forcing than in the cold type (21k), with deep convection mainly south of Greenland and Iceland. The initial AMOC weakening in response to freshwater forcing is larger in the mild type due to an early shutdown of Labrador Sea deep convection, which is completely absent in the 21k simulation. This causes a larger fraction of the freshwater anomaly to remain at surface in the mild type compared to the cold type. After 200 years, a weak AMOC is established in both climate types, as further freshening is compensated by an anomalous salt advection from the (sub-)tropical North Atlantic. However, the slightly fresher sea surface in the mild type facilitates further weakening of the AMOC, which occurs when a surface buoyancy threshold (-0.6 kg

  14. Surface radiative forcing of forest disturbances over northeastern China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, Yuzhen; Liang, Shunlin

    2014-01-01

    Forests provide important climate forcing through biogeochemical and biogeophysical processes. In this study, we investigated the climatic effects of forest disturbances due to changes in forest biomass and surface albedo in terms of radiative forcing over northeastern China. Four types of forest disturbances were considered: fires, insect damage, logging, and afforestation and reforestation. The mechanisms of the influence of forest disturbances on climate were different. ‘Instantaneous’ net radiative forcings caused by fires, insect damage, logging, and afforestation and reforestation were estimated at 0.53 ± 0.08 W m −2 , 1.09 ± 0.14 W m −2 , 2.23 ± 0.27 W m −2 , and 0.14 ± 0.04 W m −2 , respectively. Trajectories of CO 2 -driven radiative forcing, albedo-driven radiative forcing, and net forcing were different with time for each type of disturbance. Over a decade, the estimated net forcings were 2.24 ± 0.11 W m −2 , 0.20 ± 0.31 W m −2 , 1.06 ± 0.41 W m −2 , and −0.47 ± 0.07 W m −2 , respectively. These estimated radiative forcings from satellite observations provided evidence for the mechanisms of the influences of forest disturbances on climate. (paper)

  15. Impacts of Climate Change on Native Landcover: Seeking Future Climatic Refuges

    OpenAIRE

    Zanin, Marina; Mangabeira Albernaz, Ana Luisa

    2016-01-01

    Climate change is a driver for diverse impacts on global biodiversity. We investigated its impacts on native landcover distribution in South America, seeking to predict its effect as a new force driving habitat loss and population isolation. Moreover, we mapped potential future climatic refuges, which are likely to be key areas for biodiversity conservation under climate change scenarios. Climatically similar native landcovers were aggregated using a decision tree, generating a reclassified l...

  16. Tropical-extratropical climate interaction as revealed in idealized coupled climate model experiments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yang, Haijun [Peking University, Department of Atmospheric Science and Laboratory for Severe Storm and Flood Disasters, School of Physics, Beijing (China); Liu, Zhengyu [University of Wisconsin-Madison, Center for Climatic Research and Department of the Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Madison, WI (United States)

    2005-06-01

    Tropical-extratropical climate interactions are studied by idealized experiments with a prescribed 2 C SST anomaly at different latitude bands in a coupled climate model. Instead of focusing on intrinsic climate variability, this work investigates the mean climate adjustment to remote external forcing. The extratropical impact on tropical climate can be as strong as the tropical impact on extratropical climate, with the remote sea surface temperature (SST) response being about half the magnitude of the imposed SST change in the forcing region. The equatorward impact of extratropical climate is accomplished by both the atmospheric bridge and the oceanic tunnel. About two-thirds of the tropical SST change comes from the atmospheric bridge, while the remaining one-third comes from the oceanic tunnel. The equatorial SST increase is first driven by the reduced latent heat flux and the weakened poleward surface Ekman transport, and then enhanced by the decrease in subtropical cells' strength and the equatorward subduction of warm anomalies. In contrast, the poleward impact of tropical climate is accomplished mainly by the atmospheric bridge, which is responsible for extratropical temperature changes in both the surface and subsurface. Sensitivity experiments also show the dominant role of the Southern Hemisphere oceans in the tropical climate change. (orig.)

  17. Stability of orbits around planetary satellites considering a disturbing body in an elliptical orbit: Applications to Europa and Ganymede

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cardoso dos Santos, Josué; Carvalho, Jean Paulo; Vilhena de Moraes, Rodolpho

    Europa and Ganymede are two of the four Jupiter’s moons which compose the Galilean satellite. These ones are planetary satellites of greater interest at the present moment among the scientific community. There are some missions being planned to visit them and and the Jovian system. One of them is the cooperation between NASA and ESA for the Europa Jupiter System Mission (EJSM). In this mission are planned the insertion of the spacecrafts JEO (Jupiter Europa Orbiter) and JGO (Jupiter Ganymede Orbiter) into Europa and Ganymede’s orbit. Thus, there is a great necessity for having a better comprehension of the dynamics of the orbits around this planetary satellite. This comprehension is essential for the success of this type of mission. In this context, this work aims to perform a search for low-altitude orbits around these planetary satellites. An emphasis is given in polar orbits. These orbits can be useful in the planning of aerospace activities to be conducted around this planetary satellite, with respect to the stability of orbits of artificial satellites. The study considers orbits of an artificial satellite around Europa and Ganymede under the influence of the third-body perturbation (the gravitational attraction of Jupiter) and the polygenic perturbations. These last ones occur due to forces such as the non-uniform distribution of mass (J2 and J3) of the main (central) body. A simplified dynamic model for polygenic perturbations is used. A new model for the third-body disturbance is presented considering it in an elliptical orbit. The Lagrange planetary equations, which compose a system of nonlinear differential equations, are used to describe the orbital motion of the artificial satellite around Ganymede. The equations showed here are developed in closed form to avoid expansions in inclination and eccentricity.

  18. Greenland climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Masson-Delmotte, Valérie; Swingedouw, Didier; Landais, Amaëlle

    2012-01-01

    Climate archives available from deep-sea and marine shelf sediments, glaciers, lakes and ice cores in and around Greenland allow us to place the current trends in regional climate, ice sheet dynamics, and land surface changes in a broader perspective. We show that during the last decade (2000s......), atmospheric and sea-surface temperatures are reaching levels last encountered millennia ago when northern high latitude summer insolation was higher due to a different orbital configuration. Concurrently, records from lake sediments in southern Greenland document major environmental and climatic conditions...... regional climate and ice sheet dynamics. The magnitude and rate of future changes in Greenland temperature, in response to increasing greenhouse gas emissions, may be faster than any past abrupt events occurring under interglacial conditions. Projections indicate that within one century Greenland may...

  19. Single-Particle Spin-Orbit Splittings in Nuclei

    OpenAIRE

    Kazuhiko, ANDO; Hiroharu, BANDO; Department of Physics, Kyoto University; Division of Mathematical Physics, Fukui University

    1981-01-01

    Single-particle spin-orbit splittings (Δ^) in ^O and ^Ca nuclei are evaluated within the framework of the effective interaction theory by employing the Reid soft-core potential and meson-exchange three-body forces (TBF). Among the two-body force contributions, the Pauli-rearrangement effect on Δ^ is studied with special care. The TBF contribution to Δ^ is found to be significant. The G-matrix, the second-order pauli-rearrangement and the TBF contribute to Δ^ by the amount of ~1/2, ~1/5 and ~1...

  20. Spin force and torque in non-relativistic Dirac oscillator on a sphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shikakhwa, M. S.

    2018-03-01

    The spin force operator on a non-relativistic Dirac oscillator (in the non-relativistic limit the Dirac oscillator is a spin one-half 3D harmonic oscillator with strong spin-orbit interaction) is derived using the Heisenberg equations of motion and is seen to be formally similar to the force by the electromagnetic field on a moving charged particle. When confined to a sphere of radius R, it is shown that the Hamiltonian of this non-relativistic oscillator can be expressed as a mere kinetic energy operator with an anomalous part. As a result, the power by the spin force and torque operators in this case are seen to vanish. The spin force operator on the sphere is calculated explicitly and its torque is shown to be equal to the rate of change of the kinetic orbital angular momentum operator, again with an anomalous part. This, along with the conservation of the total angular momentum, suggests that the spin force exerts a spin-dependent torque on the kinetic orbital angular momentum operator in order to conserve total angular momentum. The presence of an anomalous spin part in the kinetic orbital angular momentum operator gives rise to an oscillatory behavior similar to the Zitterbewegung. It is suggested that the underlying physics that gives rise to the spin force and the Zitterbewegung is one and the same in NRDO and in systems that manifest spin Hall effect.

  1. The CSIRO Mk3L climate system model version 1.0 – Part 2: Response to external forcings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. J. Phipps

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available The CSIRO Mk3L climate system model is a coupled general circulation model, designed primarily for millennial-scale climate simulation and palaeoclimate research. Mk3L includes components which describe the atmosphere, ocean, sea ice and land surface, and combines computational efficiency with a stable and realistic control climatology. It is freely available to the research community. This paper evaluates the response of the model to external forcings which correspond to past and future changes in the climate system.

    A simulation of the mid-Holocene climate is performed, in which changes in the seasonal and meridional distribution of incoming solar radiation are imposed. Mk3L correctly simulates increased summer temperatures at northern mid-latitudes and cooling in the tropics. However, it is unable to capture some of the regional-scale features of the mid-Holocene climate, with the precipitation over Northern Africa being deficient. The model simulates a reduction of between 7 and 15% in the amplitude of El Niño-Southern Oscillation, a smaller decrease than that implied by the palaeoclimate record. However, the realism of the simulated ENSO is limited by the model's relatively coarse spatial resolution.

    Transient simulations of the late Holocene climate are then performed. The evolving distribution of insolation is imposed, and an acceleration technique is applied and assessed. The model successfully captures the temperature changes in each hemisphere and the upward trend in ENSO variability. However, the lack of a dynamic vegetation scheme does not allow it to simulate an abrupt desertification of the Sahara.

    To assess the response of Mk3L to other forcings, transient simulations of the last millennium are performed. Changes in solar irradiance, atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations and volcanic emissions are applied to the model. The model is again broadly successful at simulating larger-scale changes in the

  2. Deployment Testing of the De-Orbit Sail Flight Hardware

    OpenAIRE

    Hillebrandt, Martin; Meyer, Sebastian; Zander, Martin; Hühne, Christian

    2015-01-01

    The paper describes the results of the deployment testing of the De-Orbit Sail flight hardware, a drag sail for de-orbiting applications, performed by DLR. It addresses in particular the deployment tests of the fullscale sail subsystem and deployment force tests performed on the boom deployment module. For the fullscale sail testing a gravity compensation device is used which is described in detail. It allows observations of the in-plane interaction of the booms with the sail membrane and the...

  3. Late Neogene Orbitally-Forced Sea Surface Temperature Variability in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific as Measured by Uk'37 and TEX86

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lawrence, K. T.; Pearson, A.; Castañeda, I. S.; Peterson, L.

    2017-12-01

    Key features of late Neogene climate remain uncertain due to conflicting records derived from different sea surface temperature (SST) proxies. To resolve these disputes, it is necessary to explore both the consistencies and differences between paleotemperature estimates from critical oceanographic regimes. Here, we report orbital-scale climate variability at ODP Site 846 in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific (EEP) in the interval from 5-6 Ma using alkenone and TEX86 temperature estimates. Results from both proxies are very similar in their secular trends and magnitude of long-term temperature change; and spectral analysis demonstrates that the records are coherent and in-phase or nearly in-phase in both the obliquity and precession bands. However, we find that the temperatures reconstructed by TEX86 are consistently offset towards colder values by 2ºC with orbital-scale variations approximately twice the amplitude of the Uk'37 derived estimates. Both temperature records are antiphased - i.e. "colder" - at higher sediment alkenone concentrations, a qualitative indicator of increased glacial productivity. Temperature differences between the proxies are accentuated during glacial intervals in contrasts to modern observations of EEP surface and subsurface temperatures, which show that thermocline temperatures are fairly stable, and thus by analogy, glacial cooling and/or enhanced upwelling should have reduced rather than accentuated temperature gradients in the upper water column. Therefore, arguments that Uk'37 corresponds to temperature variability in the surface, while TEX86 responds to the subsurface, may be too simplistic. Instead, it appears generally true that high-productivity environments, including the EEP, tend to have negative TEX86 anomalies. This may reflect a dual dependence of TEX86 records on both water column temperature and local productivity. Overall, our data suggest that in the EEP and likely in other upwelling zones, paleotemperature data derived

  4. Long-Term Prediction of Satellite Orbit Using Analytical Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jae-Cheol Yoon

    1997-12-01

    Full Text Available A long-term prediction algorithm of geostationary orbit was developed using the analytical method. The perturbation force models include geopotential upto fifth order and degree and luni-solar gravitation, and solar radiation pressure. All of the perturbation effects were analyzed by secular variations, short-period variations, and long-period variations for equinoctial elements such as the semi-major axis, eccentricity vector, inclination vector, and mean longitude of the satellite. Result of the analytical orbit propagator was compared with that of the cowell orbit propagator for the KOREASAT. The comparison indicated that the analytical solution could predict the semi-major axis with an accuarcy of better than ~35meters over a period of 3 month.

  5. Large-Scale Features of Pliocene Climate: Results from the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haywood, A. M.; Hill, D.J.; Dolan, A. M.; Otto-Bliesner, B. L.; Bragg, F.; Chan, W.-L.; Chandler, M. A.; Contoux, C.; Dowsett, H. J.; Jost, A.; hide

    2013-01-01

    Climate and environments of the mid-Pliocene warm period (3.264 to 3.025 Ma) have been extensively studied.Whilst numerical models have shed light on the nature of climate at the time, uncertainties in their predictions have not been systematically examined. The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project quantifies uncertainties in model outputs through a coordinated multi-model and multi-mode data intercomparison. Whilst commonalities in model outputs for the Pliocene are clearly evident, we show substantial variation in the sensitivity of models to the implementation of Pliocene boundary conditions. Models appear able to reproduce many regional changes in temperature reconstructed from geological proxies. However, data model comparison highlights that models potentially underestimate polar amplification. To assert this conclusion with greater confidence, limitations in the time-averaged proxy data currently available must be addressed. Furthermore, sensitivity tests exploring the known unknowns in modelling Pliocene climate specifically relevant to the high latitudes are essential (e.g. palaeogeography, gateways, orbital forcing and trace gasses). Estimates of longer-term sensitivity to CO2 (also known as Earth System Sensitivity; ESS), support previous work suggesting that ESS is greater than Climate Sensitivity (CS), and suggest that the ratio of ESS to CS is between 1 and 2, with a "best" estimate of 1.5.

  6. On the Milankovitch sensitivity of the Quaternary deep-sea record

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W. H. Berger

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available The response of the climate system to external forcing (that is, global warming has become an item of prime interest, especially with respect to the rate of melting of land-based ice masses. The deep-sea record of ice-age climate change has been useful in assessing the sensitivity of the climate system to a different type of forcing; that is, to orbital forcing, which is well known for the last several million years. The expectation is that the response to one type of forcing will yield information about the likely response to other types of forcing. When comparing response and orbital forcing, one finds that sensitivity to this type of forcing varies greatly through time, evidently in dependence on the state of the system and the associated readiness of the system for change. The changing stability of ice masses is here presumed to be the chief underlying cause for the changing state of the system. A buildup of vulnerable ice masses within the latest Tertiary, when going into the ice ages, is thus here conjectured to cause a stepwise increase of climate variability since the early Pliocene.

  7. An astronomically-tuned climate framework for hominins in the Turkana Basin

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Joordens, J.C.A.; Vonhof, H.B.; Feibel, C.S.; Lourens, L.J.; Dupont-Nivet, G.; Lubbe, J.H.J.L. van der; Sier, M.J.; Davies, G.R.; Kroon, D.

    2011-01-01

    Understanding the influence of orbital climate cycles on hominin evolution remains a key challenge in paleoanthropology. The two major unresolved issues are: the absence of a climate proxy yielding high-resolution (< 20 kyr) terrestrial climate records, and the lack of age control on hominin fossil

  8. Simulation of climate variability and anthropogenic climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bengtsson, Lennart

    1999-01-01

    The climatic changes in the last century were discussed and focus was on the questions: 1) What are the causes of the rapid climate fluctuations and 2) Is the global warming, which is observed during the last century, caused by natural or anthropogenic effects. It is concluded that an understanding of climate based on the interpretation of observational data only is not feasible, unless supported by an adequate theoretical interpretation. The capabilities of climatic models were discussed and the importance of incorporating 1) calculations of the internal variability of the atmosphere when forced from an ocean with prescribed sea surface temperature as well as for a system consisting of an atmosphere and a mixed ocean of limited depth, 2) a fully coupled atmospheric and ocean model and finally, 3) a fully coupled system including transiently changing greenhouse gases and aerosols. A short summation of the results is presented. The pronounced warming during the last century is not reproduced under the assumption of constant forcing and pollution emissions have to be incorporated into the models in order to bring the simulated data in agreement with observations

  9. The Precession Index and a Nonlinear Energy Balance Climate Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rubincam, David

    2004-01-01

    A simple nonlinear energy balance climate model yields a precession index-like term in the temperature. Despite its importance in the geologic record, the precession index e sin (Omega)S, where e is the Earth's orbital eccentricity and (Omega)S is the Sun's perigee in the geocentric frame, is not present in the insolation at the top of the atmosphere. Hence there is no one-for-one mapping of 23,000 and 19,000 year periodicities from the insolation to the paleoclimate record; a nonlinear climate model is needed to produce these long periods. A nonlinear energy balance climate model with radiative terms of form T n, where T is surface temperature and n less than 1, does produce e sin (omega)S terms in temperature; the e sin (omega)S terms are called Seversmith psychroterms. Without feedback mechanisms, the model achieves extreme values of 0.64 K at the maximum orbital eccentricity of 0.06, cooling one hemisphere while simultaneously warming the other; the hemisphere over which perihelion occurs is the cooler. In other words, the nonlinear energy balance model produces long-term cooling in the northern hemisphere when the Sun's perihelion is near northern summer solstice and long-term warming in the northern hemisphere when the aphelion is near northern summer solstice. (This behavior is similar to the inertialess gray body which radiates like T 4, but the amplitude is much lower for the energy balance model because of its thermal inertia.) This seemingly paradoxical behavior works against the standard Milankovitch model, which requires cool northern summers (Sun far from Earth in northern summer) to build up northern ice sheets, so that if the standard model is correct it must be more efficient than previously thought. Alternatively, the new mechanism could possibly be dominant and indicate southern hemisphere control of the northern ice sheets, wherein the southern oceans undergo a long-term cooling when the Sun is far from the Earth during northern summer. The cold

  10. Emergent reorganization of an evolving experimental landscape under changing climatic forcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, A.; Tejedor, A.; Zaliapin, I. V.; Reinhardt, L.; Foufoula-Georgiou, E.

    2014-12-01

    Understanding landscape re-organization under changing climatic forcing is fundamental to advancing our understanding of geomorphic transport laws under transient conditions, developing predictive models of landscape response to external perturbations, and interpreting the stratigraphic record for past climates by incorporating possible regime shifts. Real landscape observations for long-term analysis are limited and to this end a high resolution controlled laboratory experiment was conducted at the St. Anthony Falls laboratory at the University of Minnesota. Elevation data were collected at temporal resolution of 5 mins and spatial resolution of 0.5 mm as the landscape approached steady state (for a constant uplift and precipitation rate) and in the transient state (under the same uplift and 5x precipitation). The results reveal rapid topographic re-organization under a five-fold precipitation increase with the fluvial regime expanding into previously debris dominated regime, accelerated erosion happening at hillslope scales, and rivers shifting from an erosion-limited to a transport-limited regime. By studying the space-time structure of the individual erosional and depositional events in terms of their size, location, clustering, and total volume we report complex space-time patterns of change which are scale-dependent and bounded by the river network topology. At the same time, the river network topology itself adjusts at smaller scales, with new channels added to accommodate increased hillslope erosional transport, further adjusting the landscape. Some new ideas related to landscape variability and entropy evolution at different scales during steady and transient states and the possibility of analyzing the self-organization with Optimal Mass Transport (OMT) metrics to infer possible underlying "optimality" principles governing the re-organization will also be presented.

  11. Late Quaternary changes in climate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Holmgren, K; Karlen, W [Stockholm Univ. (Sweden). Dept. of Physical Geography

    1998-12-01

    This review concerns the Quaternary climate with an emphasis on the last 200 000 years. The present state of art in this field is described and evaluated. The review builds on a thorough examination of classic and recent literature. General as well as detailed patterns in climate are described and the forcing factors and feed-back effects are discussed. Changes in climate occur on all time-scales. During more than 90% of the Quaternary period earth has experienced vast ice sheets, i.e. glaciations have been more normal for the period than the warm interglacial conditions we face today. Major changes in climate, such as the 100 000 years glacial/interglacial cycle, are forced by the Milankovitch three astronomical cycles. Because the cycles have different length climate changes on earth do not follow a simple pattern and it is not possible to find perfect analogues of a certain period in the geological record. Recent discoveries include the observation that major changes in climate seem to occur at the same time on both hemispheres, although the astronomical theory implies a time-lag between latitudes. This probably reflects the influence of feed-back effects within the climate system. Another recent finding of importance is the rapid fluctuations that seem to be a normal process. When earth warmed after the last glaciation temperature jumps of up to 10 deg C occurred within less than a decade and precipitation more than doubled within the same time. The forcing factors behind these rapid fluctuations are not well understood but are believed to be a result of major re-organisations in the oceanic circulation. Realizing that nature, on its own, can cause rapid climate changes of this magnitude put some perspective on the anthropogenic global warming debate, where it is believed that the release of greenhouse gases will result in a global warming of a few C. To understand the forcing behind natural rapid climate changes appears as important as to understand the role

  12. Late Quaternary changes in climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Holmgren, K.; Karlen, W.

    1998-12-01

    This review concerns the Quaternary climate with an emphasis on the last 200 000 years. The present state of art in this field is described and evaluated. The review builds on a thorough examination of classic and recent literature. General as well as detailed patterns in climate are described and the forcing factors and feed-back effects are discussed. Changes in climate occur on all time-scales. During more than 90% of the Quaternary period earth has experienced vast ice sheets, i.e. glaciations have been more normal for the period than the warm interglacial conditions we face today. Major changes in climate, such as the 100 000 years glacial/interglacial cycle, are forced by the Milankovitch three astronomical cycles. Because the cycles have different length climate changes on earth do not follow a simple pattern and it is not possible to find perfect analogues of a certain period in the geological record. Recent discoveries include the observation that major changes in climate seem to occur at the same time on both hemispheres, although the astronomical theory implies a time-lag between latitudes. This probably reflects the influence of feed-back effects within the climate system. Another recent finding of importance is the rapid fluctuations that seem to be a normal process. When earth warmed after the last glaciation temperature jumps of up to 10 deg C occurred within less than a decade and precipitation more than doubled within the same time. The forcing factors behind these rapid fluctuations are not well understood but are believed to be a result of major re-organisations in the oceanic circulation. Realizing that nature, on its own, can cause rapid climate changes of this magnitude put some perspective on the anthropogenic global warming debate, where it is believed that the release of greenhouse gases will result in a global warming of a few C. To understand the forcing behind natural rapid climate changes appears as important as to understand the role

  13. Forcing, feedback and internal variability in global temperature trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marotzke, Jochem; Forster, Piers M

    2015-01-29

    Most present-generation climate models simulate an increase in global-mean surface temperature (GMST) since 1998, whereas observations suggest a warming hiatus. It is unclear to what extent this mismatch is caused by incorrect model forcing, by incorrect model response to forcing or by random factors. Here we analyse simulations and observations of GMST from 1900 to 2012, and show that the distribution of simulated 15-year trends shows no systematic bias against the observations. Using a multiple regression approach that is physically motivated by surface energy balance, we isolate the impact of radiative forcing, climate feedback and ocean heat uptake on GMST--with the regression residual interpreted as internal variability--and assess all possible 15- and 62-year trends. The differences between simulated and observed trends are dominated by random internal variability over the shorter timescale and by variations in the radiative forcings used to drive models over the longer timescale. For either trend length, spread in simulated climate feedback leaves no traceable imprint on GMST trends or, consequently, on the difference between simulations and observations. The claim that climate models systematically overestimate the response to radiative forcing from increasing greenhouse gas concentrations therefore seems to be unfounded.

  14. Orbital Instabilities in a Triaxial Cusp Potential

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adams, Fred C.; Bloch, Anthony M.; Butler, Suzanne C.; Druce, Jeffrey M.; Ketchum, Jacob A.

    2007-12-01

    This paper constructs an analytic form for a triaxial potential that describes the dynamics of a wide variety of astrophysical systems, including the inner portions of dark matter halos, the central regions of galactic bulges, and young embedded star clusters. Specifically, this potential results from a density profile of the form ρ(m)~m-1, where the radial coordinate is generalized to triaxial form so that m2=x2/a2+y2/b2+z2/c2. Using the resulting analytic form of the potential and the corresponding force laws, we construct orbit solutions and show that a robust orbit instability exists in these systems. For orbits initially confined to any of the three principal planes, the motion in the perpendicular direction can be unstable. We discuss the range of parameter space for which these orbits are unstable, find the growth rates and saturation levels of the instability, and develop a set of analytic model equations that elucidate the essential physics of the instability mechanism. This orbit instability has a large number of astrophysical implications and applications, including understanding the formation of dark matter halos, the structure of galactic bulges, the survival of tidal streams, and the early evolution of embedded star clusters.

  15. Frozen orbit realization using LQR analogy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nagarajan, N.; Rayan, H. Reno

    In the case of remote sensing orbits, the Frozen Orbit concept minimizes altitude variations over a given region using passive means. This is achieved by establishing the mean eccentricity vector at the orbital poles i.e., by fixing the mean argument of perigee at 90 deg with an appropriate eccentricity to balance the perturbations due to zonal harmonics J2 and J3 of the Earth's potential. Eccentricity vector is a vector whose magnitude is the eccentricity and direction is the argument of perigee. The launcher dispersions result in an eccentricity vector which is away from the frozen orbit values. The objective is then to formulate an orbit maneuver strategy to optimize the fuel required to achieve the frozen orbit in the presence of visibility and impulse constraints. It is shown that the motion of the eccentricity vector around the frozen perigee can be approximated as a circle. Combining the circular motion of the eccentricity vector around the frozen point and the maneuver equation, the following discrete equation is obtained. X(k+1) = AX(k) + Bu(k), where X is the state (i.e. eccentricity vector components), A the state transition matrix, u the scalar control force (i.e. dV in this case) and B the control matrix which transforms dV into eccentricity vector change. Based on this, it is shown that the problem of optimizing the fuel can be treated as a Linear Quadratic Regulator (LQR) problem in which the maneuver can be solved by using control system design tools like MATLAB by deriving an analogy LQR design.

  16. Adaptation to climatic variability and change. Report of the task force on climate adaptation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smit, B.

    1994-01-01

    A critique and interpretation is presented of what is known and available about adaptation to climate changes, not based on any particular climate scenario. It is assumed that variability is a fact of climate and that changes in climatic conditions are possible and are constantly occurring. Emphasis is on adaptation with regard to economic and social activities in Canada. A series of linked objectives are addressed, relating to demonstration of the significance of adaptation, consideration of case studies of adaptation (past and potential future) in Canada, clarification of the meaning of adaptation and the forms it takes, assessment of policy implications, and identification of research priorities. The basic facts on global climate change are reviewed, including long-term temperature variations, and adaptation is discussed as a public policy response. Examples of adaptation in Canada are given in the areas of Great Lakes property, power generation, and transportation; Atlantic Canada communities and fisheries; forestry; the construction industry; the energy industry; recreation and tourism; agriculture; urban areas; and national defense. Recommendations regarding adapation are made to governments, the private sector, and researchers. An inventory of adaptation strategies for agriculture, the Arctic, coastal areas, ecosystems and land use, energy supply, fisheries, forestry, urban infrastructure, and water resources is appended

  17. The Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis global coupled model and its climate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Flato, G.M.; Boer, G.J.; Lee, W.G.; McFarlane, N.A.; Ramsden, D.; Reader, M.C. [Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Victoria, BC (Canada); Weaver, A.J. [School of Earth and Ocean Sciences, University of Victoria, BC (Canada)

    2000-06-01

    A global, three-dimensional climate model, developed by coupling the CCCma second-generation atmospheric general circulation model (GCM2) to a version of the GFDL modular ocean model (MOM1), forms the basis for extended simulations of past, current and projected future climate. The spin-up and coupling procedures are described, as is the resulting climate based on a 200 year model simulation with constant atmospheric composition and external forcing. The simulated climate is systematically compared to available observations in terms of mean climate quantities and their spatial patterns, temporal variability, and regional behavior. Such comparison demonstrates a generally successful reproduction of the broad features of mean climate quantities, albeit with local discrepancies. Variability is generally well-simulated over land, but somewhat underestimated in the tropical ocean and the extratropical storm-track regions. The modelled climate state shows only small trends, indicating a reasonable level of balance at the surface, which is achieved in part by the use of heat and freshwater flux adjustments. The control simulation provides a basis against which to compare simulated climate change due to historical and projected greenhouse gas and aerosol forcing as described in companion publications. (orig.)

  18. Climatic Effects of 1950-2050 Changes in US Anthropogenic Aerosols. Part 1; Aerosol Trends and Radiative Forcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leibensperger, E. M.; Mickley, L. J.; Jacob, D. J.; Chen, W.-T.; Seinfeld, J. H.; Nenes, A.; Adams, P. J.; Streets, D. G.; Kumar, N.; Rind, D.

    2012-01-01

    We calculate decadal aerosol direct and indirect (warm cloud) radiative forcings from US anthropogenic sources over the 1950-2050 period. Past and future aerosol distributions are constructed using GEOS-Chem and historical emission inventories and future projections from the IPCC A1B scenario. Aerosol simulations are evaluated with observed spatial distributions and 1980-2010 trends of aerosol concentrations and wet deposition in the contiguous US. Direct and indirect radiative forcing is calculated using the GISS general circulation model and monthly mean aerosol distributions from GEOS-Chem. The radiative forcing from US anthropogenic aerosols is strongly localized over the eastern US. We find that its magnitude peaked in 1970-1990, with values over the eastern US (east of 100 deg W) of -2.0Wm(exp-2 for direct forcing including contributions from sulfate (-2.0Wm-2), nitrate (-0.2Wm(exp-2), organic carbon (-0.2Wm(exp-2), and black carbon (+0.4Wm(exp-2). The uncertainties in radiative forcing due to aerosol radiative properties are estimated to be about 50 %. The aerosol indirect effect is estimated to be of comparable magnitude to the direct forcing. We find that the magnitude of the forcing declined sharply from 1990 to 2010 (by 0.8Wm(exp-2) direct and 1.0Wm(exp-2 indirect), mainly reflecting decreases in SO2 emissions, and project that it will continue declining post-2010 but at a much slower rate since US SO2 emissions have already declined by almost 60% from their peak. This suggests that much of the warming effect of reducing US anthropogenic aerosol sources has already been realized. The small positive radiative forcing from US BC emissions (+0.3Wm(exp-2 over the eastern US in 2010; 5% of the global forcing from anthropogenic BC emissions worldwide) suggests that a US emission control strategy focused on BC would have only limited climate benefit.

  19. New insights into deglacial climate variability in tropical South America from molecular fossil and isotopic indicators in Lake Titicaca

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shanahan, T. M.; Hughen, K. A.; Fornace, K.; Baker, P. A.; Fritz, S. C.

    2010-12-01

    As one of the main centers of tropical convection, the South American Altiplano plays a crucial role in the long-term climate variability of South America. However, both the timing and the drivers of climate variability on orbital to millennial timescales remain poorly understood for this region. New data from molecular fossil (e.g., TEX86) and compound specific hydrogen isotope (D/H) analyses provide new insights into the climate evolution of this region over the last ~50 kyr. TEX86 temperature reconstructions suggest that the Altiplano warmed as early as 19- 21 kyr ago and proceeded rapidly, consistent with published evidence for an early retreat of LGM glaciers at this time at some locations. The early warming signal observed at Lake Titicaca also appears to be synchronous with continental temperature reconstructions at some sites in tropical Africa, but leads tropical SST changes by several thousands of years. Although the initiation of warming coincided with the peak in southern hemisphere summer insolation, subsequent temperature increases were accompanied by decreases in southern hemisphere insolation, suggesting a northern hemisphere driver for temperature changes in tropical South America. Preliminary D/H ratios from leaf waxes appear to support existing data suggesting that wet conditions prevailed until the late glacial/early Holocene and are broadly consistent with local southern hemisphere summer insolation forcing of the summer monsoon. These data suggest that temperature and precipitation changes during the last deglaciation were decoupled and that both local and extratropical drivers are important for controlling climate change in this region on orbital timescales.

  20. Analysis of Orbital Lifetime Prediction Parameters in Preparation for Post-Mission Disposal

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ha–Yeon Choi

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Atmospheric drag force is an important source of perturbation of Low Earth Orbit (LEO orbit satellites, and solar activity is a major factor for changes in atmospheric density. In particular, the orbital lifetime of a satellite varies with changes in solar activity, so care must be taken in predicting the remaining orbital lifetime during preparation for post-mission disposal. In this paper, the System Tool Kit (STK® Long-term Orbit Propagator is used to analyze the changes in orbital lifetime predictions with respect to solar activity. In addition, the STK® Lifetime tool is used to analyze the change in orbital lifetime with respect to solar flux data generation, which is needed for the orbital lifetime calculation, and its control on the drag coefficient control. Analysis showed that the application of the most recent solar flux file within the Lifetime tool gives a predicted trend that is closest to the actual orbit. We also examine the effect of the drag coefficient, by performing a comparative analysis between varying and constant coefficients in terms of solar activity intensities.

  1. Endoscopic anatomy of the orbital floor and maxillary sinus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, Corey C; Bromwich, Matthew; Roth, Kathy; Matic, Damir B

    2008-01-01

    Endoscopic repair of orbital blow-out fractures could become a predictable and efficient treatment alternative to traditional methods. However, maxillary sinus endoscopy provides a complex and disorienting view of the orbital floor. To be a useful and consistent technique for providing access to the orbital floor, specific knowledge of maxillary endoscopic anatomy is required. The purpose of the study was to provide an anatomic description of the orbital floor via the endoscopic approach. Objectives include defining consistent landmarks for use in endoscopic repair of orbital floor fractures. Using 0- and 30-degree rigid endoscopes, 6 fresh cadavers (12 maxillary sinuses) were examined via a standard Caldwell-Luc approach. Computed tomographic scans, plastic molds, and digital images were used to compare observable averages within bony anatomy. Potential bony landmarks were correlated with soft-tissue anatomy in fresh specimens. The maxillary ostium, orbital floor, and lateral ethmoid air cells were visualized, and their structures were described. Observations were made in relation to the anatomy of the orbital floor and maxillary sinus, including fracture pattern and force transmission pathways. An "orbitomaxillary" sinus bony thickening was identified and described for the first time. This study provides the basis for further refinement of surgical technique and opens the door for future clinical trials using endoscopic repair.

  2. Lageos orbit decay due to infrared radiation from earth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rubincam, David Parry

    1987-01-01

    Infrared radiation from the earth may be the principal reason for the decay of Lageos' orbit. The radiation heats up the laser retroreflectors embedded in Lageos' aluminum surface. This creates a north-south temperature gradient on the satellite. The gradient in turn causes a force to be exerted on Lageos because of recoil from photons leaving its surface. The delayed heating of the retroreflectors due to their thermal inertia gives the force a net along-track component which always acts like drag. A simple thermal model for the retroreflectors indicates that this thermal drag accounts for about half the observed average along-track acceleration of -3.3 x 10 to the -10th power m/sec squared. The contribution from the aluminum surface to this effect is negligible. The infrared effect cannot explain the large observed fluctuations in drag which occur mainly when the orbit intersects the earth's shadow.

  3. ORBIT : BEAM DYNAMICS CALCULATIONS FOR HIGH - INTENSITY RINGS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    HOLMES, J.A.; DANILOV, V.; GALAMBOS, J.; SHISHLO, A.; COUSINEAU, S.; CHOU, W.; MICHELOTTI, L.; OSTIGUY, F.; WEI, J.

    2002-01-01

    We are developing a computer code, ORBIT, specifically for beam dynamics calculations in high-intensity rings. Our approach allows detailed simulation of realistic accelerator problems. ORBIT is a particle-in-cell tracking code that transports bunches of interacting particles through a series of nodes representing elements, effects, or diagnostics that occur in the accelerator lattice. At present, ORBIT contains detailed models for strip-foil injection including painting and foil scattering; rf focusing and acceleration; transport through various magnetic elements; longitudinal and transverse impedances; longitudinal, transverse, and three-dimensional space charge forces; collimation and limiting apertures; and the calculation of many useful diagnostic quantities. ORBIT is an object-oriented code, written in C++ and utilizing a scripting interface for the convenience of the user. Ongoing improvements include the addition of a library of accelerator maps, BEAMLINE/MXYZPTLK the introduction of a treatment magnet errors and fringe fields; the conversion of the scripting interface to the standard scripting language, Python; and the parallelization of the computations using MPI. The ORBIT code is an open source, powerful, and convenient tool for studying beam dynamics in high-intensity rings

  4. Analysis of Periodic Orbits about the Triangular Solutions of the Restricted Sum-Jupiter and Earth-Moon Problem

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sang-Young Park

    1988-12-01

    Full Text Available Using the numerical solution in the plane restricted problem of three bodies, about 490 periodic orbits are computed numerically around the L5 of Sun-Jupiter and about 1600 periodic orbits also be done around the L5 of Earth-Moon system. As period increase, the energy and the shape of periodic orbits increase around the L5 of Sun-Jupiter system. But, in Earth-Moon system, the complex shapes and dents appear around the L5 and periodic orbits intersect one another in the place where dents are shown. And there is a region that three different periodic orbits exist with the same period in this region. The regions can exist around the L5 of Sun-Jupiter system where periodic orbit can be unstable by perturbation of other force besides the gravitational force of Jupiter. These regions which is close to L5 are a ~5.12 AU and a ~5.29 AU. The Trojan asteroids that have a small eccentricity and inclination can not exist in this region.

  5. Orbitally forced Azolla blooms and Middle Eocene Arctic hydrology: Clues from palynology

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Barke, J.; Abels, H.A.; Sangiorgi, F.; Greenwood, D.R.; Sweet, A.R.; Donders, T.; Reichart, G.-J.; Lotter, A.F.; Brinkhuis, H.

    2011-01-01

    The high abundances and cyclic distribution of remains of the freshwater fern Azolla in early-Middle Eocene sediments from the Arctic Ocean have previously been related to episodic surface-water freshening, which was speculated to be orbitally modulated. Our integrated palynological and

  6. Orbitally forced Azolla blooms And Middle Eocene Arctic hydrology: Clues from palynology

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Barke, J.; Abels, H.A.; Sangiorgi, F.; Greenwood, D.R.; Sweet, A.R.; Donders, T.; Reichart, G.-J.; Lotter, A.F.; Brinkhuis, H.

    2011-01-01

    The high abundances and cyclic distribution of remains of the freshwater fern Azolla in early-Middle Eocene sediments from the Arctic Ocean have previously been related to episodic surface-water freshening, which was speculated to be orbitally modulated. Our integrated palynological and

  7. THEORY OF SECULAR CHAOS AND MERCURY'S ORBIT

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lithwick, Yoram; Wu Yanqin

    2011-01-01

    We study the chaotic orbital evolution of planetary systems, focusing on secular (i.e., orbit-averaged) interactions, which dominate on long timescales. We first focus on the evolution of a test particle that is forced by multiple planets. To linear order in eccentricity and inclination, its orbit precesses with constant frequencies. But nonlinearities modify the frequencies, and can shift them into and out of resonance with either the planets' eigenfrequencies (forming eccentricity or inclination secular resonances), or with linear combinations of those frequencies (forming mixed high-order secular resonances). The overlap of these nonlinear secular resonances drives secular chaos. We calculate the locations and widths of nonlinear secular resonances, display them together on a newly developed map (the 'map of the mean momenta'), and find good agreement between analytical and numerical results. This map also graphically demonstrates how chaos emerges from overlapping secular resonances. We then apply this newfound understanding to Mercury to elucidate the origin of its orbital chaos. We find that since Mercury's two free precession frequencies (in eccentricity and inclination) lie within ∼25% of two other eigenfrequencies in the solar system (those of the Jupiter-dominated eccentricity mode and the Venus-dominated inclination mode), secular resonances involving these four modes overlap and cause Mercury's chaos. We confirm this with N-body integrations by showing that a slew of these resonant angles alternately librate and circulate. Our new analytical understanding allows us to calculate the criterion for Mercury to become chaotic: Jupiter and Venus must have eccentricity and inclination of a few percent. The timescale for Mercury's chaotic diffusion depends sensitively on the forcing. As it is, Mercury appears to be perched on the threshold for chaos, with an instability timescale comparable to the lifetime of the solar system.

  8. Resolving Orbital and Climate Keys of Earth and Extraterrestrial Environments with Dynamics (ROCKE-3D) 1.0: A General Circulation Model for Simulating the Climates of Rocky Planets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Way, M. J.; Aleinov, I.; Amundsen, David S.; Chandler, M. A.; Clune, T. L.; Del Genio, A.; Fujii, Y.; Kelley, M.; Kiang, N. Y.; Sohl, L.; hide

    2017-01-01

    Resolving Orbital and Climate Keys of Earth and Extraterrestrial Environments with Dynamics (ROCKE-3D) is a three-dimensional General Circulation Model (GCM) developed at the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies for the modeling of atmospheres of solar system and exoplanetary terrestrial planets. Its parent model, known as ModelE2, is used to simulate modern Earth and near-term paleo-Earth climates. ROCKE-3D is an ongoing effort to expand the capabilities of ModelE2 to handle a broader range of atmospheric conditions, including higher and lower atmospheric pressures, more diverse chemistries and compositions, larger and smaller planet radii and gravity, different rotation rates (from slower to more rapid than modern Earth's, including synchronous rotation), diverse ocean and land distributions and topographies, and potential basic biosphere functions. The first aim of ROCKE-3D is to model planetary atmospheres on terrestrial worlds within the solar system such as paleo-Earth, modern and paleo-Mars, paleo-Venus, and Saturn's moon Titan. By validating the model for a broad range of temperatures, pressures, and atmospheric constituents, we can then further expand its capabilities to those exoplanetary rocky worlds that have been discovered in the past, as well as those to be discovered in the future. We also discuss the current and near-future capabilities of ROCKE-3D as a community model for studying planetary and exoplanetary atmospheres.

  9. Responses of stream nitrate and DOC loadings to hydrological forcing and climate change in an upland forest of the northeastern United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stephen D. Sebestyen; Elizabeth W. Boyer; James B. Shanley

    2009-01-01

    In coming decades, higher annual temperatures, increased growing season length, and increased dormant season precipitation are expected across the northeastern United States in response to anthropogenic forcing of global climate. We synthesized long-term stream hydrochemical data from the Sleepers River Research Watershed in Vermont, United States, to explore the...

  10. Climatic Forcing on Black Sigatoka Disease of Banana Crops in Urabá, Colombia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ochoa, A.; Álvarez, P.; Poveda, G.; Buriticá, P.; Mira, J.

    2012-12-01

    Bananas are widely the most consumed fruit in the world and Colombia is one of the major producers and exporters of bananas worldwide. We analyzed the climatic forcing agents on banana crops in the Urabá region, the largest banana producer in Colombia. Although this crop is harvested continuously throughout the entire year, it exhibits climate driven seasonality. Black Sigatoka Disease (BSD) has been the most important threat for banana production worldwide. BSD attacks plant leaves producing small spots of dead material. When BSD is not treated, it can grow enough to damage the entire leaf, reducing both growth and developmental rates which may result in the loss of the plant. BSD is caused by Mycosphaerella fijiensis. This fungus is dispersed by wind with its inoculation occurring when there is water on the leaf. Thus, climatic variables such as wind, relative humidity of air (RH) and leaf wetness duration (LWD) all affect phenological phases of the banana crop (suckering, growing, flowering and harvesting). This study was carried out at the Cenibanano Experimental Plot located in Carepa (Urabá, Colombia) during 2007-2012. We used phytopathologic and weather data from the Cenibanano database along with climatic data from the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR). BSD was diagnosed using the Biological Forecasting method. Results show that rainfall drives both plant and disease development rate. During wet periods the Foliar Emission Rate exceeds rates measured during dry periods. Although wetness is a positive factor for fungal reproduction (and BSD), it also heightens the chance for the plant to create more foliar tissue to fight against BSD. Hence, during wet periods the Severity Index of BSD is reduced in relation to dry periods. This effect was also observed at the inter-annual scale of the El Niño - South Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. During the ENSO warm/cold phase (El Niño/La Niña) rainfall anomalies in Colombia were observed as negative

  11. EVOLUTIONARY TRACKS OF THE CLIMATE OF EARTH-LIKE PLANETS AROUND DIFFERENT MASS STARS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kadoya, S.; Tajika, E., E-mail: kadoya@astrobio.k.u-tokyo.ac.jp, E-mail: tajika@eps.s.u-tokyo.ac.jp [Department of Earth and Planetary Science, The University of Tokyo, Faculty of Science Bldg. 1 #711, 7-3-1 Hongo, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo, 113-0033 (Japan)

    2016-07-10

    The climatic evolution of the Earth depends strongly on the evolution of the insolation from the Sun and the amount of the greenhouse gasses, especially CO{sub 2} in the atmosphere. Here, we investigate the evolution of the climate of hypothetical Earths around stars whose masses are different from the solar mass with a luminosity evolution model of the stars, a mantle degassing model coupled with a parameterized convection model of the planetary interiors, and an energy balance climate model of the planetary surface. In the habitable zone (HZ), the climate of the planets is initially warm or hot, depending on the orbital semimajor axes. We found that, in the inner HZ, the climate of the planets becomes hotter with time owing to the increase in the luminosity of the central stars, while, in the outer HZ, it becomes colder and eventually globally ice-covered owing to the decrease in the CO{sub 2} degassing rate of the planets. The orbital condition for maintaining the warm climate similar to the present Earth becomes very limited, and more interestingly, the planet orbiting in the outer HZ becomes globally ice-covered after a certain critical age (∼3 Gyr for the hypothetical Earth with standard parameters), irrespective of the mass of the central star. This is because the critical age depends on the evolution of the planets and planetary factors, rather than on the stellar mass. The habitability of the Earth-like planet is shown to be limited with age even though it is orbiting within the HZ.

  12. EVOLUTIONARY TRACKS OF THE CLIMATE OF EARTH-LIKE PLANETS AROUND DIFFERENT MASS STARS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kadoya, S.; Tajika, E.

    2016-01-01

    The climatic evolution of the Earth depends strongly on the evolution of the insolation from the Sun and the amount of the greenhouse gasses, especially CO_2 in the atmosphere. Here, we investigate the evolution of the climate of hypothetical Earths around stars whose masses are different from the solar mass with a luminosity evolution model of the stars, a mantle degassing model coupled with a parameterized convection model of the planetary interiors, and an energy balance climate model of the planetary surface. In the habitable zone (HZ), the climate of the planets is initially warm or hot, depending on the orbital semimajor axes. We found that, in the inner HZ, the climate of the planets becomes hotter with time owing to the increase in the luminosity of the central stars, while, in the outer HZ, it becomes colder and eventually globally ice-covered owing to the decrease in the CO_2 degassing rate of the planets. The orbital condition for maintaining the warm climate similar to the present Earth becomes very limited, and more interestingly, the planet orbiting in the outer HZ becomes globally ice-covered after a certain critical age (∼3 Gyr for the hypothetical Earth with standard parameters), irrespective of the mass of the central star. This is because the critical age depends on the evolution of the planets and planetary factors, rather than on the stellar mass. The habitability of the Earth-like planet is shown to be limited with age even though it is orbiting within the HZ.

  13. Global impact of road traffic on atmospheric chemical composition and on ozone climate forcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niemeier, Ulrike; Granier, Claire; Kornblueh, Luis; Walters, Stacy; Brasseur, Guy P.

    2006-05-01

    Automobile emissions are known to contribute to local air pollution and to photochemical smog in urban areas. The impact of road traffic on the chemical composition of the troposphere at the global scale and on climate forcing is less well quantified. Calculations performed with the chemical transport MOZART-2 model show that the concentrations of ozone and its precursors (NOx, CO, and hydrocarbons) are considerably enhanced in most regions of the Northern Hemisphere in response to current surface traffic. During summertime in the Northern Hemisphere, road traffic has increased the zonally averaged ozone concentration by more than 10% in the boundary layer and in the extratropics by approximately 6% at 500 hPa and 2.5% at 300 hPa. The summertime surface ozone concentrations have increased by typically 1-5 ppbv in the remote regions and by 5-20 ppbv in industrialized regions of the Northern Hemisphere. The corresponding ozone-related radiative forcing is 0.05 Wm-2. In order to assess the sensitivity of potential changes in road traffic intensity, two additional model cases were considered, in which traffic-related emissions in all regions of the world were assumed to be on a per capita basis the same as in Europe and in the United States, respectively. In the second and most dramatic case, the surface ozone concentration increases by 30-50 ppbv (50-100%) in south Asia as compared to the present situation. Under this assumption, the global radiative forcing due to traffic-generated ozone reaches 0.27 Wm-2.

  14. Late Miocene climate and time scale reconciliation: Accurate orbital calibration from a deep-sea perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drury, Anna Joy; Westerhold, Thomas; Frederichs, Thomas; Tian, Jun; Wilkens, Roy; Channell, James E. T.; Evans, Helen; John, Cédric M.; Lyle, Mitch; Röhl, Ursula

    2017-10-01

    Accurate age control of the late Tortonian to early Messinian (8.3-6.0 Ma) is essential to ascertain the origin of benthic foraminiferal δ18O trends and the late Miocene carbon isotope shift (LMCIS), and to examine temporal relationships between the deep-sea, terrasphere and cryosphere. The current Tortonian-Messinian Geological Time Scale (GTS2012) is based on astronomically calibrated Mediterranean sections; however, no comparable non-Mediterranean stratigraphies exist for 8-6 Ma suitable for testing the GTS2012. Here, we present the first high-resolution, astronomically tuned benthic stable isotope stratigraphy (1.5 kyr resolution) and magnetostratigraphy from a single deep-sea location (IODP Site U1337, equatorial Pacific Ocean), which provides unprecedented insight into climate evolution from 8.3-6.0 Ma. The astronomically calibrated magnetostratigraphy provides robust ages, which differ by 2-50 kyr relative to the GTS2012 for polarity Chrons C3An.1n to C4r.1r, and eliminates the exceptionally high South Atlantic spreading rates based on the GTS2012 during Chron C3Bn. We show that the LMCIS was globally synchronous within 2 kyr, and provide astronomically calibrated ages anchored to the GPTS for its onset (7.537 Ma; 50% from base Chron C4n.1n) and termination (6.727 Ma; 11% from base Chron C3An.2n), confirming that the terrestrial C3:C4 shift could not have driven the LMCIS. The benthic records show that the transition into the 41-kyr world, when obliquity strongly influenced climate variability, already occurred at 7.7 Ma and further strengthened at 6.4 Ma. Previously unseen, distinctive, asymmetric saw-tooth patterns in benthic δ18O imply that high-latitude forcing played an important role in late Miocene climate dynamics from 7.7-6.9 Ma. This new integrated deep-sea stratigraphy from Site U1337 can act as a new stable isotope and magnetic polarity reference section for the 8.3-6.0 Ma interval.

  15. Toward an integrated ice core chronology using relative and orbital tie-points

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bazin, L.; Landais, A.; Lemieux-Dudon, B.; Toyé Mahamadou Kele, H.; Blunier, T.; Capron, E.; Chappellaz, J.; Fischer, H.; Leuenberger, M.; Lipenkov, V.; Loutre, M.-F.; Martinerie, P.; Parrenin, F.; Prié, F.; Raynaud, D.; Veres, D.; Wolff, E.

    2012-04-01

    Precise ice cores chronologies are essential to better understand the mechanisms linking climate change to orbital and greenhouse gases concentration forcing. A tool for ice core dating (DATICE [developed by Lemieux-Dudon et al., 2010] permits to generate a common time-scale integrating relative and absolute dating constraints on different ice cores, using an inverse method. Nevertheless, this method has only been applied for a 4-ice cores scenario and for the 0-50 kyr time period. Here, we present the bases for an extension of this work back to 800 ka using (1) a compilation of published and new relative and orbital tie-points obtained from measurements of air trapped in ice cores and (2) an adaptation of the DATICE inputs to 5 ice cores for the last 800 ka. We first present new measurements of δ18Oatm and δO2/N2 on the Talos Dome and EPICA Dome C (EDC) ice cores with a particular focus on Marine Isotopic Stages (MIS) 5, and 11. Then, we show two tie-points compilations. The first one is based on new and published CH4 and δ18Oatm measurements on 5 ice cores (NorthGRIP, EPICA Dronning Maud Land, EDC, Talos Dome and Vostok) in order to produce a table of relative gas tie-points over the last 400 ka. The second one is based on new and published records of δO2/N2, δ18Oatm and air content to provide a table of orbital tie-points over the last 800 ka. Finally, we integrate the different dating constraints presented above in the DATICE tool adapted to 5 ice cores to cover the last 800 ka and show how these constraints compare with the established gas chronologies of each ice core.

  16. One-Centimeter Orbits in Near-Real Time: The GPS Experience on OSTM/JASON-2

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haines, Bruce; Armatys, Michael; Bar-Sever, Yoaz; Bertiger, Willy; Desai, Shailen; Dorsey, Angela; Lane, Christopher; Weiss, Jan

    2010-01-01

    The advances in Precise Orbit Determination (POD) over the past three decades have been driven in large measure by the increasing demands of satellite altimetry missions. Since the launch of Seasat in 1978, both tracking-system technologies and orbit modeling capabilities have evolved considerably. The latest in a series of precise (TOPEX-class) altimeter missions is the Ocean Surface Topography Mission (OSTM, also Jason-2). GPS-based orbit solutions for this mission are accurate to 1-cm (radial RMS) within 3-5 hrs of real time. These GPS-based orbit products provide the basis for a near-real time sea-surface height product that supports increasingly diverse applications of operational oceanography and climate forecasting.

  17. Bounding the Role of Black Carbon in the Climate System: a Scientific Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bond, T. C.; Doherty, S. J.; Fahey, D. W.; Forster, P. M.; Bernsten, T.; DeAngelo, B. J.; Flanner, M. G.; Ghan, S.; Karcher, B.; Koch, D.; hide

    2013-01-01

    Black carbon aerosol plays a unique and important role in Earth's climate system. Black carbon is a type of carbonaceous material with a unique combination of physical properties. This assessment provides an evaluation of black-carbon climate forcing that is comprehensive in its inclusion of all known and relevant processes and that is quantitative in providing best estimates and uncertainties of the main forcing terms: direct solar absorption; influence on liquid, mixed phase, and ice clouds; and deposition on snow and ice. These effects are calculated with climate models, but when possible, they are evaluated with both microphysical measurements and field observations. Predominant sources are combustion related, namely, fossil fuels for transportation, solid fuels for industrial and residential uses, and open burning of biomass. Total global emissions of black carbon using bottom-up inventory methods are 7500 Gg/yr in the year 2000 with an uncertainty range of 2000 to 29000. However, global atmospheric absorption attributable to black carbon is too low in many models and should be increased by a factor of almost 3. After this scaling, the best estimate for the industrial-era (1750 to 2005) direct radiative forcing of atmospheric black carbon is +0.71 W/sq m with 90% uncertainty bounds of (+0.08, +1.27)W/sq m. Total direct forcing by all black carbon sources, without subtracting the preindustrial background, is estimated as +0.88 (+0.17, +1.48) W/sq m. Direct radiative forcing alone does not capture important rapid adjustment mechanisms. A framework is described and used for quantifying climate forcings, including rapid adjustments. The best estimate of industrial-era climate forcing of black carbon through all forcing mechanisms, including clouds and cryosphere forcing, is +1.1 W/sq m with 90% uncertainty bounds of +0.17 to +2.1 W/sq m. Thus, there is a very high probability that black carbon emissions, independent of co-emitted species, have a positive forcing

  18. Antarctic climate and ice-sheet configuration during the early Pliocene interglacial at 4.23 Ma

    Science.gov (United States)

    Golledge, Nicholas R.; Thomas, Zoë A.; Levy, Richard H.; Gasson, Edward G. W.; Naish, Timothy R.; McKay, Robert M.; Kowalewski, Douglas E.; Fogwill, Christopher J.

    2017-07-01

    The geometry of Antarctic ice sheets during warm periods of the geological past is difficult to determine from geological evidence, but is important to know because such reconstructions enable a more complete understanding of how the ice-sheet system responds to changes in climate. Here we investigate how Antarctica evolved under orbital and greenhouse gas conditions representative of an interglacial in the early Pliocene at 4.23 Ma, when Southern Hemisphere insolation reached a maximum. Using offline-coupled climate and ice-sheet models, together with a new synthesis of high-latitude palaeoenvironmental proxy data to define a likely climate envelope, we simulate a range of ice-sheet geometries and calculate their likely contribution to sea level. In addition, we use these simulations to investigate the processes by which the West and East Antarctic ice sheets respond to environmental forcings and the timescales over which these behaviours manifest. We conclude that the Antarctic ice sheet contributed 8.6 ± 2.8 m to global sea level at this time, under an atmospheric CO2 concentration identical to present (400 ppm). Warmer-than-present ocean temperatures led to the collapse of West Antarctica over centuries, whereas higher air temperatures initiated surface melting in parts of East Antarctica that over one to two millennia led to lowering of the ice-sheet surface, flotation of grounded margins in some areas, and retreat of the ice sheet into the Wilkes Subglacial Basin. The results show that regional variations in climate, ice-sheet geometry, and topography produce long-term sea-level contributions that are non-linear with respect to the applied forcings, and which under certain conditions exhibit threshold behaviour associated with behavioural tipping points.

  19. A Preliminary Formation Flying Orbit Dynamics Analysis for Leonardo-BRDF

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hughes, Steven P.; Mailhe, Laurie M.

    2001-01-01

    Leonardo-BRDF is a NASA mission concept proposed to allow the investigation of radiative transfer and its effect on the Earth's climate and atmospheric phenomenon. Enabled by the recent developments in small-satellite and formation flying technology, the mission is envisioned to be composed of an array of spacecraft in carefully designed orbits. The different perspectives provided by a distributed array of spacecraft offer a unique advantage to study the Earth's albedo. This paper presents the orbit dynamics analysis performed in the context of the Leonardo-BRDF science requirements. First, the albedo integral is investigated and the effect of viewing geometry on science return is studied. The method used in this paper, based on Gauss quadrature, provides the optimal formation geometry to ensure that the value of the integral is accurately approximated. An orbit design approach is presented to achieve specific relative orbit geometries while simultaneously satisfying orbit dynamics constraints to reduce formation-keeping fuel expenditure. The relative geometry afforded by the design is discussed in terms of mission requirements. An optimal two-burn initialization scheme is presented with the required delta-V to distribute all spacecraft from a common parking orbit into their appropriate orbits in the formation. Finally, formation-keeping strategies are developed and the associated delta-V's are calculated to maintain the formation in the presence of perturbations.

  20. Active Climate Stabilization: Practical Physics-Based Approaches to Prevention of Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teller, E.; Hyde, T.; Wood, L.

    2002-04-18

    We offer a case for active technical management of the radiative forcing of the temperatures of the Earth's fluid envelopes, rather than administrative management of atmospheric greenhouse gas inputs, in order to stabilize both the global- and time-averaged climate and its mesoscale features. We suggest that active management of radiative forcing entails negligible--indeed, likely strongly negative--economic costs and environmental impacts, and thus best complies with the pertinent mandate of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. We propose that such approaches be swiftly evaluated in sub-scale in the course of an intensive international program.

  1. Targeting Ballistic Lunar Capture Trajectories Using Periodic Orbits in the Sun-Earth CRTBP

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cooley, D.S.; Griesemer, Paul Ricord; Ocampo, Cesar

    2009-01-01

    A particular periodic orbit in the Earth-Sun circular restricted three body problem is shown to have the characteristics needed for a ballistic lunar capture transfer. An injection from a circular parking orbit into the periodic orbit serves as an initial guess for a targeting algorithm. By targeting appropriate parameters incrementally in increasingly complicated force models and using precise derivatives calculated from the state transition matrix, a reliable algorithm is produced. Ballistic lunar capture trajectories in restricted four body systems are shown to be able to be produced in a systematic way.

  2. Climate catastrophes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Budyko, Mikhail

    1999-05-01

    Climate catastrophes, which many times occurred in the geological past, caused the extinction of large or small populations of animals and plants. Changes in the terrestrial and marine biota caused by the catastrophic climate changes undoubtedly resulted in considerable fluctuations in global carbon cycle and atmospheric gas composition. Primarily, carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas contents were affected. The study of these catastrophes allows a conclusion that climate system is very sensitive to relatively small changes in climate-forcing factors (transparency of the atmosphere, changes in large glaciations, etc.). It is important to take this conclusion into account while estimating the possible consequences of now occurring anthropogenic warming caused by the increase in greenhouse gas concentration in the atmosphere.

  3. The moon as a radiometric reference source for on-orbit sensor stability calibration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stone, T.C.

    2009-01-01

    The wealth of data generated by the world's Earth-observing satellites, now spanning decades, allows the construction of long-term climate records. A key consideration for detecting climate trends is precise quantification of temporal changes in sensor calibration on-orbit. For radiometer instruments in the solar reflectance wavelength range (near-UV to shortwave-IR), the Moon can be viewed as a solar diffuser with exceptional stability properties. A model for the lunar spectral irradiance that predicts the geometric variations in the Moon's brightness with ???1% precision has been developed at the U.S. Geological Survey in Flagstaff, AZ. Lunar model results corresponding to a series of Moon observations taken by an instrument can be used to stabilize sensor calibration with sub-percent per year precision, as demonstrated by the Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS). The inherent stability of the Moon and the operational model to utilize the lunar irradiance quantity provide the Moon as a reference source for monitoring radiometric calibration in orbit. This represents an important capability for detecting terrestrial climate change from space-based radiometric measurements.

  4. Plio-Pleistocene facies environments from the KBS Member, Koobi Fora Formation: implications for climate controls on the development of lake-margin hominin habitats in the northeast Turkana Basin (northwest Kenya).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lepre, Christopher J; Quinn, Rhonda L; Joordens, Josephine C A; Swisher, Carl C; Feibel, Craig S

    2007-11-01

    Climate change is hypothesized as a cause of major events of Plio-Pleistocene East African hominin evolution, but the vertically discontinuous and laterally confined nature of the relevant geological records has led to difficulties with assessing probable links between the two. High-resolution sedimentary sequences from lacustrine settings can provide comprehensive data of environmental changes and detailed correlations with well-established orbital and marine records of climate. Hominin-bearing deposits from Koobi Fora Ridge localities in the northeast Turkana Basin of Kenya are an archive of Plio-Pleistocene lake-margin sedimentation though significant developmental junctures of northern African climates, East African environments, and hominin evolution. This study examines alluvial channel and floodplain, nearshore lacustrine, and offshore lacustrine facies environments for the approximately 136-m-thick KBS Member (Koobi Fora Formation) exposed at the Koobi Fora Ridge. Aspects of the facies environments record information on the changing hydrosedimentary dynamics of the lake margin and give insights into potential climatic controls. Seasonal/yearly climate changes are represented by the varve-like laminations in offshore mudstones and the slickensides, dish-shaped fractures, and other paleosol features overprinted on floodplain strata. Vertical shifts between facies environments, however, are interpreted to indicate lake-level fluctuations deriving from longer-term, dry-wet periods in monsoonal rainfall. Recurrence periods for the inferred lake-level changes range from about 10,000 to 50,000 years, and several are consistent with the average estimated timescales of orbital precession ( approximately 20,000 years) and obliquity ( approximately 40,000 years). KBS Member facies environments from the Koobi Fora Ridge document the development of lake-margin hominin habitats in the northeast Turkana Basin. Environmental changes in these habitats may be a result of

  5. Climate response to projected changes in short-lived species under an A1B scenario from 2000-2050 in the GISS climate model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Menon, Surabi; Shindell, Drew T.; Faluvegi, Greg; Bauer, Susanne E.; Koch, Dorothy M.; Unger, Nadine; Menon, Surabi; Miller, Ron L.; Schmidt, Gavin A.; Streets, David G.

    2007-03-26

    We investigate the climate forcing from and response to projected changes in short-lived species and methane under the A1B scenario from 2000-2050 in the GISS climate model. We present a meta-analysis of new simulations of the full evolution of gas and aerosol species and other existing experiments with variations of the same model. The comparison highlights the importance of several physical processes in determining radiative forcing, especially the effect of climate change on stratosphere-troposphere exchange, heterogeneous sulfate-nitrate-dust chemistry, and changes in methane oxidation and natural emissions. However, the impact of these fairly uncertain physical effects is substantially less than the difference between alternative emission scenarios for all short-lived species. The net global mean annual average direct radiative forcing from the short-lived species is .02 W/m{sup 2} or less in our projections, as substantial positive ozone forcing is largely offset by negative aerosol direct forcing. Since aerosol reductions also lead to a reduced indirect effect, the global mean surface temperature warms by {approx}0.07 C by 2030 and {approx}0.13 C by 2050, adding 19% and 17%, respectively, to the warming induced by long-lived greenhouse gases. Regional direct forcings are large, up to 3.8 W/m{sup 2}. The ensemble-mean climate response shows little regional correlation with the spatial pattern of the forcing, however, suggesting that oceanic and atmospheric mixing generally overwhelms the effect of even large localized forcings. Exceptions are the polar regions, where ozone and aerosols may induce substantial seasonal climate changes.

  6. Climate change: Causes, effects and mitigation measures- A review ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Global Journal of Pure and Applied Sciences ... far more than at any time in the last 650,000 years resulting in climate change or global warming. Both natural and human causes of climate change including the earth's orbital changes, ... food production, loss of biodiversity, food insecurity, decreased animal health et cetera.

  7. Impact of evolving greenhouse gas forcing on the warming signal in regional climate model experiments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jerez, S; López-Romero, J M; Turco, M; Jiménez-Guerrero, P; Vautard, R; Montávez, J P

    2018-04-03

    Variations in the atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHG) may not be included as external forcing when running regional climate models (RCMs); at least, this is a non-regulated, non-documented practice. Here we investigate the so far unexplored impact of considering the rising evolution of the CO 2 , CH 4 , and N 2 O atmospheric concentrations on near-surface air temperature (TAS) trends, for both the recent past and the near future, as simulated by a state-of-the-art RCM over Europe. The results show that the TAS trends are significantly affected by 1-2 K century -1 , which under 1.5 °C global warming translates into a non-negligible impact of up to 1 K in the regional projections of TAS, similarly affecting projections for maximum and minimum temperatures. In some cases, these differences involve a doubling signal, laying further claim to careful reconsideration of the RCM setups with regard to the inclusion of GHG concentrations as an evolving external forcing which, for the sake of research reproducibility and reliability, should be clearly documented in the literature.

  8. Innermost stable circular orbit of Kerr-MOG black hole

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Hyun-Chul; Han, Yong-Jin [Soonchunhyang University, Department of Physics, Asan (Korea, Republic of)

    2017-10-15

    We study the innermost stable circular orbit (ISCO) of the metric of the Kerr black hole in modified gravity (Kerr-MOG black hole), which is one of the exact solutions of the field equation of modified gravity in the strong gravity regime. The Kerr-MOG metric is constructed; it is the commonly known Kerr metric in Boyer-Lindquist coordinates by adding a repulsive term like the Yukawa force, which is explained in quantum gravity. In this paper, we numerically calculate the circular orbit of a photon and the ISCO of a test particle of Kerr-MOG black holes. (orig.)

  9. On the spacecraft attitude stabilization in the orbital frame

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antipov Kirill A.

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper deals with spacecraft in the circular near-Earth orbit. The spacecraft interacts with geomagnetic field by the moments of Lorentz and magnetic forces. The octupole approximation of the Earth’s magnetic field is accepted. The spacecraft electromagnetic parameters, namely the electrostatic charge moment of the first order and the eigen magnetic moment are the controlled quasiperiodic functions. The control algorithms for the spacecraft electromagnetic parameters, which allows to stabilize the spacecraft attitude position in the orbital frame are obtained. The stability of the spacecraft stabilized orientation is proved both analytically and by PC computations.

  10. Climate change. Scientific background and process

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Alfsen, Knut H; Fuglestvedt, Jan; Seip, Hans Martin; Skodvin, Tora

    1999-07-01

    The paper describes briefly the natural and man-made forces behind climate change and outlines climate variations in the past. It also discusses the future impact of anthropogenic emission of greenhouse gases, and the background, organisation and functioning of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

  11. Determining the Effect of the Lunar Nodal Cycle on Tidal Mixing and North Pacific Climate Variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ullman, D. J.; Schmittner, A.; Danabasoglu, G.; Norton, N. J.; Müller, M.

    2016-02-01

    Oscillations in the moon's orbit around the earth modulate regional tidal dissipation with a periodicity of 18.6 years. In regions where the diurnal tidal constituents dominate diapycnal mixing, this Lunar Nodal Cycle (LNC) may be significant enough to influence ocean circulation, sea surface temperature, and climate variability. Such periodicity in the LNC as an external forcing may provide a mechanistic source for Pacific decadal variability (i.e. Pacific Decadal Oscillation, PDO) where diurnal tidal constituents are strong. We have introduced three enhancements to the latest version of the Community Earth System Model (CESM) to better simulate tidal-forced mixing. First, we have produced a sub-grid scale bathymetry scheme that better resolves the vertical distribution of the barotropic energy flux in regions where the native CESM grid does not resolve high spatial-scale bathymetric features. Second, we test a number of alternative barotropic tidal constituent energy flux fields that are derived from various satellite altimeter observations and tidal models. Third, we introduce modulations of the individual diurnal and semi-diurnal tidal constituents, ranging from monthly to decadal periods, as derived from the full lunisolar tidal potential. Using both ocean-only and fully-coupled configurations, we test the influence of these enhancements, particularly the LNC modulations, on ocean mixing and bidecadal climate variability in CESM.

  12. A Numerical Study of Low-Thrust Limited Power Trajectories between Coplanar Circular Orbits in an Inverse-Square Force Field

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sandro da Silva Fernandes

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available A numerical study of optimal low-thrust limited power trajectories for simple transfer (no rendezvous between circular coplanar orbits in an inverse-square force field is performed by two different classes of algorithms in optimization of trajectories. This study is carried out by means of a direct method based on gradient techniques and by an indirect method based on the second variation theory. The direct approach of the trajectory optimization problem combines the main positive characteristics of two well-known direct methods in optimization of trajectories: the steepest-descent (first-order gradient method and a direct second variation (second-order gradient method. On the other hand, the indirect approach of the trajectory optimization problem involves two different algorithms of the well-known neighboring extremals method. Several radius ratios and transfer durations are considered, and the fuel consumption is taken as the performance criterion. For small-amplitude transfers, the results are compared to the ones provided by a linear analytical theory.

  13. Calcareous microfossil-based orbital cyclostratigraphy in the Arctic Ocean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marzen, Rachel; DeNinno, Lauren H.; Cronin, Thomas M.

    2016-01-01

    Microfaunal and geochemical proxies from marine sediment records from central Arctic Ocean (CAO) submarine ridges suggest a close relationship over the last 550 thousand years (kyr) between orbital-scale climatic oscillations, sea-ice cover, marine biological productivity and other parameters. Multiple paleoclimate proxies record glacial to interglacial cycles. To understand the climate-cryosphere-productivity relationship, we examined the cyclostratigraphy of calcareous microfossils and constructed a composite Arctic Paleoclimate Index (API) "stack" from benthic foraminiferal and ostracode density from 14 sediment cores. Following the hypothesis that API is driven mainly by changes in sea-ice related productivity, the API stack shows the Arctic experienced a series of highly productive interglacials and interstadials every ∼20 kyr. These periods signify minimal ice shelf and sea-ice cover and maximum marine productivity. Rapid transitions in productivity are seen during shifts from interglacial to glacial climate states. Discrepancies between the Arctic API curves and various global climatic, sea-level and ice-volume curves suggest abrupt growth and decay of Arctic ice shelves related to climatic and sea level oscillations.

  14. Paleo erosion rates and climate shifts recorded by Quaternary cut-and-fill sequences in the Pisco valley, central Peru

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bekaddour, Toufik; Schlunegger, Fritz; Vogel, Hendrik; Delunel, Romain; Norton, Kevin P.; Akçar, Naki; Kubik, Peter

    2014-03-01

    Fluvial cut-and-fill sequences have frequently been reported from various sites on Earth. Nevertheless, the information about the past erosional regime and hydrological conditions have not yet been adequately deciphered from these archives. The Quaternary terrace sequences in the Pisco valley, located at ca. 13°S, offer a manifestation of an orbitally-driven cyclicity in terrace construction where phases of sediment accumulation have been related to the Minchin (48-36 ka) and Tauca (26-15 ka) lake level highstands on the Altiplano. Here, we present a 10Be-based sediment budget for the cut-and-fill terrace sequences in this valley to quantify the orbitally forced changes in precipitation and erosion. We find that the Minchin period was characterized by an erosional pulse along the Pacific coast where denudation rates reached values as high as 600±80 mm/ka for a relatively short time span lasting a few thousands of years. This contrasts to the younger pluvial periods and the modern situation when 10Be-based sediment budgets register nearly zero erosion at the Pacific coast. We relate these contrasts to different erosional conditions between the modern and the Minchin time. First, the sediment budget infers a precipitation pattern that matches with the modern climate ca. 1000 km farther north, where highly erratic and extreme El Niño-related precipitation results in fast erosion and flooding along the coast. Second, the formation of a thick terrace sequence requires sufficient material on catchment hillslopes to be stripped off by erosion. This was most likely the case immediately before the start of the Minchin period, because this erosional epoch was preceded by a >50 ka-long time span with poorly erosive climate conditions, allowing for sufficient regolith to build up on the hillslopes. Finally, this study suggests a strong control of orbitally and ice sheet forced latitudinal shifts of the ITCZ on the erosional gradients and sediment production on the western

  15. Ocean-atmosphere forcing of South American tropical paleoclimate, LGM to present

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baker, P. A.; Fritz, S. C.; Dwyer, G. S.; Rigsby, C. A.; Silva, C. G.; Burns, S. J.

    2012-12-01

    Because of many recent terrestrial paleoclimatic and marine paleoceanographic records, late Quaternary South American tropical paleoclimate is as well understood as that anywhere in the world. While lessons learned from the recent instrumental record of climate are informative, this record is too short to capture much of the lower frequency variability encountered in the paleoclimate records and much of the observed paleoclimate is without modern analogue. This paleoclimate is known to be regionally variable with significant differences both north and south of the equator and between the western high Andes and eastern lowlands of the Amazon and Nordeste Brazil. Various extrinsic forcing mechanisms affected climate throughout the period, including global concentrations of GHGs, Northern Hemisphere ice sheet forcing, seasonal insolation forcing of the South American summer monsoon (SASM), millennial-scale Atlantic forcing, and Pacific forcing of the large-scale Walker circulation. The magnitude of the climate response to these forcings varied temporally, largely because of the varying amplitude of the forcing itself. For example, during the last glacial, large-amplitude north Atlantic forcing during Heinrich 1 and the LGM itself, led to wet (dry) conditions south (north) of the equator. During the Holocene, Atlantic forcing was lower amplitude, thus seasonal insolation forcing generally predominated with a weaker-than-normal SASM during the early Holocene resulting in dry conditions in the south-western tropics and wet conditions in the eastern lowlands and Nordeste; in the late Holocene seasonal insolation reached a maximum in the southern tropics and climate conditions reversed.

  16. Transition to a Moist Greenhouse with CO2 and solar forcing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Popp, Max; Schmidt, Hauke; Marotzke, Jochem

    2016-02-09

    Water-rich planets such as Earth are expected to become eventually uninhabitable, because liquid water turns unstable at the surface as temperatures increase with solar luminosity. Whether a large increase of atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases such as CO2 could also destroy the habitability of water-rich planets has remained unclear. Here we show with three-dimensional aqua-planet simulations that CO2-induced forcing as readily destabilizes the climate as does solar forcing. The climate instability is caused by a positive cloud feedback and leads to a new steady state with global-mean sea-surface temperatures above 330 K. The upper atmosphere is considerably moister in this warm state than in the reference climate, implying that the planet would be subject to substantial loss of water to space. For some elevated CO2 or solar forcings, we find both cold and warm equilibrium states, implying that the climate transition cannot be reversed by removing the additional forcing.

  17. Growth in the Number of SSN Tracked Orbital Objects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stansbery, Eugene G.

    2004-01-01

    The number of objects in earth orbit tracked by the US Space Surveillance Network (SSN) has experienced unprecedented growth since March, 2003. Approximately 2000 orbiting objects have been added to the "Analyst list" of tracked objects. This growth is primarily due to the resumption of full power/full time operation of the AN/FPS-108 Cobra Dane radar located on Shemya Island, AK. Cobra Dane is an L-band (23-cm wavelength) phased array radar which first became operational in 1977. Cobra Dane was a "Collateral Sensor" in the SSN until 1994 when its communication link with the Space Control Center (SCC) was closed. NASA and the Air Force conducted tests in 1999 using Cobra Dane to detect and track small debris. These tests confirmed that the radar was capable of detecting and maintaining orbits on objects as small as 5-cm diameter. Subsequently, Cobra Dane was reconnected to the SSN and resumed full power/full time space surveillance operations on March 4, 2003. This paper will examine the new data and its implications to the understanding of the orbital debris environment and orbital safety.

  18. Orbital controls on paleo erosion rates in the Western Escarpment of the Andes at 13° latitude

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schlunegger, Fritz; Bekaddour, Toufik; Delunel, Romain; Norton, Kevin; Akçar, Naki; Vogel, Hendrik

    2014-05-01

    The formation of fluvial terrace sequences in mountainous areas requires that two boundary conditions have to be fulfilled. First, hilllslope material available for erosion needs to be sufficiently thick and abundant. Second stripping off of this regolith cover has to occur fast and within a short time period. Contrariwise, if hillslope erosion operates at a pace concordant with the fluvial regime and in equilibrium to the prevailing climate, then no terrace sequence will form. Here, we present a 10Be-based sediment budget from the cut-and-fill terrace sequences in the Pisco valley, and particularly the Minchin terrace sequence deposited between 48-36 ka, to illustrate how the erosional regime and the precipitation pattern has changed in response to orbitally-driven climate cycles. We find that the Minchin period was characterized by an erosional pulse along the Pacific coast during which denudation rates reached values as high as 600 mm/ka (provided that the lateral valley flanks have been the major sediment source) for a relatively short time span lasting a few thousands of years. This contrasts to the younger orbitally-controlled pluvial periods and the modern situation when 10Be-based sediment budgets yield nearly zero erosion at the Pacific coast. We interpret these contrasts to indicated different erosional conditions between the modern and the Minchin time. First, the sediment budget infers a precipitation pattern that is similar to the modern climate ca. 1000 km farther north near the boundary between Peru and Ecuador, where highly erratic and extreme El Niño-related precipitation are associated with landsliding and flooding along the coast. Second, the formation of a thick terrace sequence requires the supply of sufficient material through erosion on the catchment's hillslopes. It is likely that a relatively thick regolith sequence had accumulated before the start of the Minchin period, because this erosional epoch was preceded by a >50 ka-long time span

  19. Using periodic orbits to compute chaotic transport rates between resonance zones

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sattari, Sulimon; Mitchell, Kevin A.

    2017-11-01

    Transport properties of chaotic systems are computable from data extracted from periodic orbits. Given a sufficient number of periodic orbits, the escape rate can be computed using the spectral determinant, a function that incorporates the eigenvalues and periods of periodic orbits. The escape rate computed from periodic orbits converges to the true value as more and more periodic orbits are included. Escape from a given region of phase space can be computed by considering only periodic orbits that lie within the region. An accurate symbolic dynamics along with a corresponding partitioning of phase space is useful for systematically obtaining all periodic orbits up to a given period, to ensure that no important periodic orbits are missing in the computation. Homotopic lobe dynamics (HLD) is an automated technique for computing accurate partitions and symbolic dynamics for maps using the topological forcing of intersections of stable and unstable manifolds of a few periodic anchor orbits. In this study, we apply the HLD technique to compute symbolic dynamics and periodic orbits, which are then used to find escape rates from different regions of phase space for the Hénon map. We focus on computing escape rates in parameter ranges spanning hyperbolic plateaus, which are parameter intervals where the dynamics is hyperbolic and the symbolic dynamics does not change. After the periodic orbits are computed for a single parameter value within a hyperbolic plateau, periodic orbit continuation is used to compute periodic orbits over an interval that spans the hyperbolic plateau. The escape rates computed from a few thousand periodic orbits agree with escape rates computed from Monte Carlo simulations requiring hundreds of billions of orbits.

  20. Resolving Orbital and Climate Keys of Earth and Extraterrestrial Environments with Dynamics (ROCKE-3D) 1.0: A General Circulation Model for Simulating the Climates of Rocky Planets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Way, M. J.; Aleinov, I.; Amundsen, David S.; Chandler, M. A.; Genio, A. D. Del; Fujii, Y.; Kelley, M.; Kiang, N. Y.; Sohl, L.; Tsigaridis, K.; Clune, T. L.

    2017-01-01

    Resolving Orbital and Climate Keys of Earth and Extraterrestrial Environments with Dynamics (ROCKE-3D) is a three-dimensional General Circulation Model (GCM) developed at the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies for the modeling of atmospheres of solar system and exoplanetary terrestrial planets. Its parent model, known as ModelE2, is used to simulate modern Earth and near-term paleo-Earth climates. ROCKE-3D is an ongoing effort to expand the capabilities of ModelE2 to handle a broader range of atmospheric conditions, including higher and lower atmospheric pressures, more diverse chemistries and compositions, larger and smaller planet radii and gravity, different rotation rates (from slower to more rapid than modern Earth’s, including synchronous rotation), diverse ocean and land distributions and topographies, and potential basic biosphere functions. The first aim of ROCKE-3D is to model planetary atmospheres on terrestrial worlds within the solar system such as paleo-Earth, modern and paleo-Mars, paleo-Venus, and Saturn’s moon Titan. By validating the model for a broad range of temperatures, pressures, and atmospheric constituents, we can then further expand its capabilities to those exoplanetary rocky worlds that have been discovered in the past, as well as those to be discovered in the future. We also discuss the current and near-future capabilities of ROCKE-3D as a community model for studying planetary and exoplanetary atmospheres.

  1. Resolving Orbital and Climate Keys of Earth and Extraterrestrial Environments with Dynamics (ROCKE-3D) 1.0: A General Circulation Model for Simulating the Climates of Rocky Planets

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Way, M. J.; Aleinov, I.; Amundsen, David S.; Chandler, M. A.; Genio, A. D. Del; Fujii, Y.; Kelley, M.; Kiang, N. Y.; Sohl, L.; Tsigaridis, K. [NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY 10025 (United States); Clune, T. L. [Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (United States)

    2017-07-01

    Resolving Orbital and Climate Keys of Earth and Extraterrestrial Environments with Dynamics (ROCKE-3D) is a three-dimensional General Circulation Model (GCM) developed at the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies for the modeling of atmospheres of solar system and exoplanetary terrestrial planets. Its parent model, known as ModelE2, is used to simulate modern Earth and near-term paleo-Earth climates. ROCKE-3D is an ongoing effort to expand the capabilities of ModelE2 to handle a broader range of atmospheric conditions, including higher and lower atmospheric pressures, more diverse chemistries and compositions, larger and smaller planet radii and gravity, different rotation rates (from slower to more rapid than modern Earth’s, including synchronous rotation), diverse ocean and land distributions and topographies, and potential basic biosphere functions. The first aim of ROCKE-3D is to model planetary atmospheres on terrestrial worlds within the solar system such as paleo-Earth, modern and paleo-Mars, paleo-Venus, and Saturn’s moon Titan. By validating the model for a broad range of temperatures, pressures, and atmospheric constituents, we can then further expand its capabilities to those exoplanetary rocky worlds that have been discovered in the past, as well as those to be discovered in the future. We also discuss the current and near-future capabilities of ROCKE-3D as a community model for studying planetary and exoplanetary atmospheres.

  2. Translating Big Data into Big Climate Ideas: Communicating Future Climate Scenarios to Increase Interdisciplinary Engagement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Climate change has emerged as the significant environmental challenge of the 21st century. Therefore, understanding our changing world has forced researchers from many different fields of science to join together to tackle complicated research questions. The climate change resear...

  3. Influence of various forcings on global climate in historical times using a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stendel, Martin; Mogensen, Irene A.; Christensen, Jens H.

    2006-01-01

    The results of a simulation of the climate of the last five centuries with a state-of-the-art coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model are presented. The model has been driven with most relevant forcings, both natural (solar variability, volcanic aerosol) and anthropogenic (greenhouse...... gases, sulphate aerosol, land-use changes). In contrast to previous GCM studies, we have taken into account the latitudinal dependence of volcanic aerosol and the changing land cover for a period covering several centuries. We find a clear signature of large volcanic eruptions in the simulated...

  4. External Periodic Force Control of a Single-Degree-of-Freedom Vibroimpact System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jingyue Wang

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available A single-degree-of-freedom mechanical model of vibro-impact system is established. Bifurcation and chaos in the system are revealed with the time history diagram, phase trajectory map, and Poincaré map. According to the bifurcation and chaos of the actual vibro-impact system, the paper puts forward external periodic force control strategy. The method of controlling chaos by external periodic force feedback controller is developed to guide chaotic motions towards regular motions. The stability of the control system is also analyzed especially by theory. By selecting appropriate feedback coefficients, the unstable periodic orbits of the original chaotic orbit can be stabilized to the stable periodic orbits. The effectiveness of this control method is verified by numerical simulation.

  5. Numerical Algorithms for Precise and Efficient Orbit Propagation and Positioning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bradley, Ben K.

    Motivated by the growing space catalog and the demands for precise orbit determination with shorter latency for science and reconnaissance missions, this research improves the computational performance of orbit propagation through more efficient and precise numerical integration and frame transformation implementations. Propagation of satellite orbits is required for astrodynamics applications including mission design, orbit determination in support of operations and payload data analysis, and conjunction assessment. Each of these applications has somewhat different requirements in terms of accuracy, precision, latency, and computational load. This dissertation develops procedures to achieve various levels of accuracy while minimizing computational cost for diverse orbit determination applications. This is done by addressing two aspects of orbit determination: (1) numerical integration used for orbit propagation and (2) precise frame transformations necessary for force model evaluation and station coordinate rotations. This dissertation describes a recently developed method for numerical integration, dubbed Bandlimited Collocation Implicit Runge-Kutta (BLC-IRK), and compare its efficiency in propagating orbits to existing techniques commonly used in astrodynamics. The BLC-IRK scheme uses generalized Gaussian quadratures for bandlimited functions. It requires significantly fewer force function evaluations than explicit Runge-Kutta schemes and approaches the efficiency of the 8th-order Gauss-Jackson multistep method. Converting between the Geocentric Celestial Reference System (GCRS) and International Terrestrial Reference System (ITRS) is necessary for many applications in astrodynamics, such as orbit propagation, orbit determination, and analyzing geoscience data from satellite missions. This dissertation provides simplifications to the Celestial Intermediate Origin (CIO) transformation scheme and Earth orientation parameter (EOP) storage for use in positioning and

  6. Statistical framework for evaluation of climate model simulations by use of climate proxy data from the last millennium – Part 2: A pseudo-proxy study addressing the amplitude of solar forcing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Hind

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available The statistical framework of Part 1 (Sundberg et al., 2012, for comparing ensemble simulation surface temperature output with temperature proxy and instrumental records, is implemented in a pseudo-proxy experiment. A set of previously published millennial forced simulations (Max Planck Institute – COSMOS, including both "low" and "high" solar radiative forcing histories together with other important forcings, was used to define "true" target temperatures as well as pseudo-proxy and pseudo-instrumental series. In a global land-only experiment, using annual mean temperatures at a 30-yr time resolution with realistic proxy noise levels, it was found that the low and high solar full-forcing simulations could be distinguished. In an additional experiment, where pseudo-proxies were created to reflect a current set of proxy locations and noise levels, the low and high solar forcing simulations could only be distinguished when the latter served as targets. To improve detectability of the low solar simulations, increasing the signal-to-noise ratio in local temperature proxies was more efficient than increasing the spatial coverage of the proxy network. The experiences gained here will be of guidance when these methods are applied to real proxy and instrumental data, for example when the aim is to distinguish which of the alternative solar forcing histories is most compatible with the observed/reconstructed climate.

  7. Potential forcing of CO2, technology and climate changes in maize (Zea mays) and bean (Phaseolus vulgaris) yield in southeast Brazil

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Costa, L C; Justino, F; Oliveira, L J C; Sediyama, G C; Lemos, C F; Ferreira, W P M

    2009-01-01

    Based upon sensitivity experiments, this study aims to investigate the impact of increased atmospheric CO 2 concentration, climate changes, and ongoing technological advancements on bean (Phaseolus vulgaris) and maize (Zea mays) yield. This investigation assumes that the atmospheric CO 2 concentration evolves according to the A2 scenario. For these analyses we have used climate data as projected by climate simulations conducted with the HadCM3 climate model for both present day and greenhouse warming conditions. The results demonstrated that warming conditions associated with increased greenhouse gases as delivered by the HadCM3 model lead to reductions in the potential productivity of maize and beans for the years 2050 and 2080 by up to 30%. This thermal response is, however, damped by the highly efficient CO 2 fertilization effect which is expected to increase bean productivity as compared to present day conditions. A similar investigation for maize yield revealed a different picture. It has been found that the CO 2 fertilization feedback is much weaker and cannot cancel out the thermal effect. We have found, therefore, that climate changes as simulated to occur in the future are not favorable for increasing the maize yield in southeast Brazil. By the inclusion of the third forcing evaluated, representing technological advancements, it is demonstrated that improvements in the crop system reduce the negative effect associated with warmer climate conditions for both crops. We conclude that appropriate soil and technological management as well as genetic improvements may very likely induce an increase in bean and maize yield despite the unfavorable future climate conditions.

  8. Hydrological Climate Classification: Can We Improve on Köppen-Geiger?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knoben, W.; Woods, R. A.; Freer, J. E.

    2017-12-01

    Classification is essential in the study of complex natural systems, yet hydrology so far has no formal way to structure the climate forcing which underlies hydrologic response. Various climate classification systems can be borrowed from other disciplines but these are based on different organizing principles than a hydrological classification might use. From gridded global data we calculate a gridded aridity index, an aridity seasonality index and a rain-vs-snow index, which we use to cluster global locations into climate groups. We then define the membership degree of nearly 1100 catchments to each of our climate groups based on each catchment's climate and investigate the extent to which streamflow responses within each climate group are similar. We compare this climate classification approach with the often-used Köppen-Geiger classification, using statistical tests based on streamflow signature values. We find that three climate indices are sufficient to distinguish 18 different climate types world-wide. Climates tend to change gradually in space and catchments can thus belong to multiple climate groups, albeit with different degrees of membership. Streamflow responses within a climate group tend to be similar, regardless of the catchments' geographical proximity. A Wilcoxon two-sample test based on streamflow signature values for each climate group shows that the new classification can distinguish different flow regimes using this classification scheme. The Köppen-Geiger approach uses 29 climate classes but is less able to differentiate streamflow regimes. Climate forcing exerts a strong control on typical hydrologic response and both change gradually in space. This makes arbitrary hard boundaries in any classification scheme difficult to defend. Any hydrological classification should thus acknowledge these gradual changes in forcing. Catchment characteristics (soil or vegetation type, land use, etc) can vary more quickly in space than climate does, which

  9. Greenhouse effect and climate: the man impact; Effet de serre et climat: l'influence humaine

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fouquart, Y. [Universite des Sciences et technologies de Lille, Lab. d' Optique Atmospherique, 59 - Villeneuve d' Ascq (France)

    2001-04-01

    In this article the author describes the different mechanisms that are involved in the setting of the earth climate. The main natural causes of climate variations are reviewed: - the variations in the orbit of the earth around the sun, - the interactions between oceans and the atmosphere, and - the volcanic eruptions. It is shown that mean earth temperature has continuously increased for the last 150 years. The impact of man activities on climate changes will not be scientifically proved before at least 10 years, but computerized simulations based on models taking into account industrial emissions of aerosols agree with temperatures values recorded since the beginning of the industrial era. This article supports the current opinion that climate is changing beyond natural variations. (A.C.)

  10. Retrofitting Forced Air Combi Systems: A Cold Climate Field Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schoenbauer, Ben [NorthernSTAR, St. Paul, MN (United States); Bohac, Dave [NorthernSTAR, St. Paul, MN (United States); McAlpine, Jack [NorthernSTAR, St. Paul, MN (United States); Hewett, Martha [NorthernSTAR, St. Paul, MN (United States)

    2017-06-01

    This project analyzed combined condensing water heaters or boilers and hydronic air coils to provide high efficiency domestic hot water (DHW) and forced air space heating. Called "combi" systems, they provided similar space and water heating performance less expensively than installing two condensing appliances. The system's installed costs were cheaper than installing a condensing furnace and either a condensing tankless or condensing storage water heater. However, combi costs must mature and be reduced before they are competitive with a condensing furnace and power vented water heater (energy factor of 0.60). Better insulation and tighter envelopes are reducing space heating loads for new and existing homes. For many homes, decreased space heating loads make it possible for both space and domestic water heating loads to be provided with a single heating plant. These systems can also eliminate safety issues associated with natural draft appliances through the use of one common sealed combustion vent. The combined space and water heating approach was not a new idea. Past systems have used non-condensing heating plants, which limited their usefulness in climates with high heating loads. Previous laboratory work (Schoenbauer et al. 2012a) showed that proper installation was necessary to achieve condensing with high efficiency appliances. Careful consideration was paid to proper system sizing and minimizing the water temperature returning from the air handling unit to facilitate condensing operation.

  11. Retrofitting Forced Air Combi Systems: A Cold Climate Field Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schoenbauer, Ben [Univ. of Minnesota, St. Paul, MN (United States). NorthernSTAR Building America Partnership; Bohac, Dave [Univ. of Minnesota, St. Paul, MN (United States). NorthernSTAR Building America Partnership; McAlpine, Jake [Univ. of Minnesota, St. Paul, MN (United States). NorthernSTAR Building America Partnership; Hewett, Martha [Univ. of Minnesota, St. Paul, MN (United States). NorthernSTAR Building America Partnership

    2017-06-23

    This project analyzed combined condensing water heaters or boilers and hydronic air coils to provide high efficiency domestic hot water (DHW) and forced air space heating. Called 'combi' systems, they provided similar space and water heating performance less expensively than installing two condensing appliances. The system's installed costs were cheaper than installing a condensing furnace and either a condensing tankless or condensing storage water heater. However, combi costs must mature and be reduced before they are competitive with a condensing furnace and power vented water heater (energy factor of 0.60). Better insulation and tighter envelopes are reducing space heating loads for new and existing homes. For many homes, decreased space heating loads make it possible for both space and domestic water heating loads to be provided with a single heating plant. These systems can also eliminate safety issues associated with natural draft appliances through the use of one common sealed combustion vent. The combined space and water heating approach was not a new idea. Past systems have used non-condensing heating plants, which limited their usefulness in climates with high heating loads. Previous laboratory work (Schoenbauer et al. 2012a) showed that proper installation was necessary to achieve condensing with high efficiency appliances. Careful consideration was paid to proper system sizing and minimizing the water temperature returning from the air handling unit to facilitate condensing operation.

  12. Orbital Advection with Magnetohydrodynamics and Vector Potential

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lyra, Wladimir [Department of Physics and Astronomy, California State University Northrige, 18111 Nordhoff Street, Northridge CA 91130 (United States); McNally, Colin P. [Astronomy Unit, School of Physics and Astronomy, Queen Mary University of London, Mile End Road, London E1 4NS (United Kingdom); Heinemann, Tobias [Niels Bohr International Academy, The Niels Bohr Institute, Blegdamsvej 17, DK-2100, Copenhagen Ø (Denmark); Masset, Frédéric, E-mail: wlyra@csun.edu [Instituto de Ciencias Físicas, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Av. Universidad s/n, 62210 Cuernavaca, Mor. (Mexico)

    2017-10-01

    Orbital advection is a significant bottleneck in disk simulations, and a particularly tricky one when used in connection with magnetohydrodynamics. We have developed an orbital advection algorithm suitable for the induction equation with magnetic potential. The electromotive force is split into advection and shear terms, and we find that we do not need an advective gauge since solving the orbital advection implicitly precludes the shear term from canceling the advection term. We prove and demonstrate the third order in time accuracy of the scheme. The algorithm is also suited to non-magnetic problems. Benchmarked results of (hydrodynamical) planet–disk interaction and of the magnetorotational instability are reproduced. We include detailed descriptions of the construction and selection of stabilizing dissipations (or high-frequency filters) needed to generate practical results. The scheme is self-consistent, accurate, and elegant in its simplicity, making it particularly efficient for straightforward finite-difference methods. As a result of the work, the algorithm is incorporated in the public version of the Pencil Code, where it can be used by the community.

  13. Orbital Advection with Magnetohydrodynamics and Vector Potential

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lyra, Wladimir; McNally, Colin P.; Heinemann, Tobias; Masset, Frédéric

    2017-01-01

    Orbital advection is a significant bottleneck in disk simulations, and a particularly tricky one when used in connection with magnetohydrodynamics. We have developed an orbital advection algorithm suitable for the induction equation with magnetic potential. The electromotive force is split into advection and shear terms, and we find that we do not need an advective gauge since solving the orbital advection implicitly precludes the shear term from canceling the advection term. We prove and demonstrate the third order in time accuracy of the scheme. The algorithm is also suited to non-magnetic problems. Benchmarked results of (hydrodynamical) planet–disk interaction and of the magnetorotational instability are reproduced. We include detailed descriptions of the construction and selection of stabilizing dissipations (or high-frequency filters) needed to generate practical results. The scheme is self-consistent, accurate, and elegant in its simplicity, making it particularly efficient for straightforward finite-difference methods. As a result of the work, the algorithm is incorporated in the public version of the Pencil Code, where it can be used by the community.

  14. Climate engineering and the risk of rapid climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ross, Andrew; Damon Matthews, H

    2009-01-01

    Recent research has highlighted risks associated with the use of climate engineering as a method of stabilizing global temperatures, including the possibility of rapid climate warming in the case of abrupt removal of engineered radiative forcing. In this study, we have used a simple climate model to estimate the likely range of temperature changes associated with implementation and removal of climate engineering. In the absence of climate engineering, maximum annual rates of warming ranged from 0.015 to 0.07 deg. C/year, depending on the model's climate sensitivity. Climate engineering resulted in much higher rates of warming, with the temperature change in the year following the removal of climate engineering ranging from 0.13 to 0.76 deg. C. High rates of temperature change were sustained for two decades following the removal of climate engineering; rates of change of 0.5 (0.3,0.1) deg. C/decade were exceeded over a 20 year period with 15% (75%, 100%) likelihood. Many ecosystems could be negatively affected by these rates of temperature change; our results suggest that climate engineering in the absence of deep emissions cuts could arguably constitute increased risk of dangerous anthropogenic interference in the climate system under the criteria laid out in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.

  15. Key drivers of ozone change and its radiative forcing over the 21st century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iglesias-Suarez, Fernando; Kinnison, Douglas E.; Rap, Alexandru; Maycock, Amanda C.; Wild, Oliver; Young, Paul J.

    2018-05-01

    Over the 21st century changes in both tropospheric and stratospheric ozone are likely to have important consequences for the Earth's radiative balance. In this study, we investigate the radiative forcing from future ozone changes using the Community Earth System Model (CESM1), with the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM), and including fully coupled radiation and chemistry schemes. Using year 2100 conditions from the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario, we quantify the individual contributions to ozone radiative forcing of (1) climate change, (2) reduced concentrations of ozone depleting substances (ODSs), and (3) methane increases. We calculate future ozone radiative forcings and their standard error (SE; associated with inter-annual variability of ozone) relative to year 2000 of (1) 33 ± 104 m Wm-2, (2) 163 ± 109 m Wm-2, and (3) 238 ± 113 m Wm-2 due to climate change, ODSs, and methane, respectively. Our best estimate of net ozone forcing in this set of simulations is 430 ± 130 m Wm-2 relative to year 2000 and 760 ± 230 m Wm-2 relative to year 1750, with the 95 % confidence interval given by ±30 %. We find that the overall long-term tropospheric ozone forcing from methane chemistry-climate feedbacks related to OH and methane lifetime is relatively small (46 m Wm-2). Ozone radiative forcing associated with climate change and stratospheric ozone recovery are robust with regard to background climate conditions, even though the ozone response is sensitive to both changes in atmospheric composition and climate. Changes in stratospheric-produced ozone account for ˜ 50 % of the overall radiative forcing for the 2000-2100 period in this set of simulations, highlighting the key role of the stratosphere in determining future ozone radiative forcing.

  16. Physical Processes Controlling Earth's Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Genio, Anthony Del

    2013-01-01

    As background for consideration of the climates of the other terrestrial planets in our solar system and the potential habitability of rocky exoplanets, we discuss the basic physics that controls the Earths present climate, with particular emphasis on the energy and water cycles. We define several dimensionless parameters relevant to characterizing a planets general circulation, climate and hydrological cycle. We also consider issues associated with the use of past climate variations as indicators of future anthropogenically forced climate change, and recent advances in understanding projections of future climate that might have implications for Earth-like exoplanets.

  17. Dangerous anthropogenic interference, dangerous climatic change, and harmful climatic change. Non-trivial distinctions with significant policy implications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Harvey, L.D.D.

    2007-01-01

    Article 2 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) calls for stabilization of greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations at levels that prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference (DAI) in the climate system. However, some of the recent policy literature has focused on dangerous climatic change (DCC) rather than on DAI. DAI is a set of increases in GHGs concentrations that has a non-negligible possibility of provoking changes in climate that in turn have a non-negligible possibility of causing unacceptable harm, including harm to one or more of ecosystems, food production systems, and sustainable socio-economic systems, whereas DCC is a change of climate that has actually occurred or is assumed to occur and that has a non-negligible possibility of causing unacceptable harm. If the goal of climate policy is to prevent DAI, then the determination of allowable GHG concentrations requires three inputs: the probability distribution function (pdf) for climate sensitivity, the pdf for the temperature change at which significant harm occurs, and the allowed probability ('risk') of incurring harm previously deemed to be unacceptable. If the goal of climate policy is to prevent DCC, then one must know what the correct climate sensitivity is (along with the harm pdf and risk tolerance) in order to determine allowable GHG concentrations. DAI from elevated atmospheric CO2 also arises through its impact on ocean chemistry as the ocean absorbs CO2. The primary chemical impact is a reduction in the degree of supersaturation of ocean water with respect to calcium carbonate, the structural building material for coral and for calcareous phytoplankton at the base of the marine food chain. Here, the probability of significant harm (in particular, impacts violating the subsidiary conditions in Article 2 of the UNFCCC) is computed as a function of the ratio of total GHG radiative forcing to the radiative forcing for a CO2 doubling, using two alternative pdfs for

  18. CONTRIBUTION OF SATELLITE-BORN INFORMATION TO CLIMATE SCIENCE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    MIKA J.

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Observed climate processes play important role in understanding the ongoing changes in the climate system. Our paper intends to present this cross-section of climate science illustrated by selected satellite images and diagrams in four parts. (i. Technical possibilities of the observations are briefly surveyed first. Many satellite platforms and devices started working in the 1980 and 1990s, definitely for climate purposes. (ii. Climate forcing factors and their radiation effects are comprehended, including direct observation of solar irradiance and volcanic aerosol concentration allowing us to compare natural factors to the anthropogenic ones. (iii. Detection of changes in the Earth climate system follows next, including the atmosphere, the oceans and the cryosphere, as well. (iv. Finally, satellite-born results in validation of climate models are presented in three aspects: reconstruction of present climate, validation of simulated changes and investigation of feedback mechanisms driving climate sensitivity to the external forcing factors. The above possibilities of using satellite information in climate science are mostly illustrated by key figures of the IPCC AR5 Report (2013.

  19. The National Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bloom, H.

    The tri-agency Integrated Program Office (IPO) is responsible for managing the development of the National Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System (NPOESS). NPOESS will replace the current military and civilian operational polar-orbiting ``weather'' satellites. The Northrop Grumman Space Technology - Raytheon team was competitively selected in 2002 as the Acquisition and Operations contractor team to develop, integrate, deploy, and operate NPOESS satellites to meet the tri-agency user requirements for NPOESS over the 10-year (2009-2018) operational life of the program. Beginning in 2009, NPOESS spacecraft will be launched into three orbital planes to provide significantly improved operational capabilities and benefits to satisfy critical civil and national security requirements for space-based, remotely sensed environmental data. With the development of NPOESS, we are evolving operational ``weather'' satellites into integrated environmental observing systems by expanding our capabilities to observe, assess, and predict the total Earth system - atmosphere, ocean, land, and the space environment. In recent years, the operational weather forecasting and climate science communities have levied more rigorous requirements on space-based observations of the Earth's system that have significantly increased demands on performance of the instruments, spacecraft, and ground systems required to deliver NPOESS data, products, and information to end users. The ``end-to-end'' system consists of: the spacecraft; instruments and sensors on the spacecraft; launch support capabilities; the command, control, communications, and data routing infrastructure; and data processing hardware and software. NPOESS will observe significantly more phenomena simultaneously from space than its operational predecessors. NPOESS is expected to deliver large volumes of more accurate measurements at higher spatial (horizontal and vertical) and temporal resolution at much higher data

  20. Climate Change and Human Migration: Towards a Global Governance System to Protect Climate Refugees

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Biermann, F.; Boas, I.J.C.

    2012-01-01

    Climate change will fundamentally affect the lives of millions of people who will be forced over the next decades to leave their villages and cities to seek refuge in other areas. Although the exact numbers of climate refugees are unknowable and vary from assessment to assessment depending on

  1. Understanding ENSO dynamics through the exploration of past climates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Phipps, Steven J; Brown, Jaclyn N

    2010-01-01

    The palaeoclimate record shows that significant changes in ENSO characteristics took place during the Holocene. Exploring these changes, using both data and models, provides a means of understanding ENSO dynamics. Previous modelling studies have suggested a mechanism whereby changes in the Earth's orbital geometry explain the strengthening of ENSO over the Holocene. Decreasing summer insolation over the Asian landmass resulted in a weakening of the Asian monsoon system. This led to a weakening of the easterly trade winds in the western Pacific, creating conditions more favourable for El Nino development. To explore this hypothesised forcing mechanism, we use a climate system model to conduct a suite of simulations of the climate of the past 8,000 years. In the early Holocene, we find that the Asian summer monsoon system is intensified, resulting in an amplification of the easterly trade winds in the western Pacific. The stronger trade winds represent a barrier to the eastward propagation of westerly wind bursts, therefore inhibiting the onset of El Nino events. The fundamental behaviour of ENSO remains unchanged, with the major change over the Holocene being the influence of the background state of the Pacific on the susceptibility of the ocean to the initiation of El Nino events.

  2. Climate Change, Indoor Environment and Health

    Science.gov (United States)

    Climate change is becoming a driving force for improving energy efficiency because saving energy can help reduce the greenhouse gas emissions that contribute to climate change. However, it is important to balance energy saving measures with ventilation...

  3. Health, Energy Efficiency and Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Climate change is becoming a driving force for improving energy efficiency because saving energy can help reduce the greenhouse gas emissions that contribute to climate change. However, it is important to balance energy saving measures with ventilation...

  4. Bounding the Role of Black Carbon in the Climate System: A Scientific Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bond, Tami C.; Doherty, Sarah J.; Fahey, D. W.; Forster, Piers; Berntsen, T.; DeAngelo, B. J.; Flanner, M. G.; Ghan, Steven J.; Karcher, B.; Koch, Dorothy; Kinne, Stefan; Kondo, Yutaka; Quinn, P. K.; Sarofim, Marcus; Schultz, Martin; Schulz, M.; Venkataraman, C.; Zhang, Hua; Zhang, Shiqiu; Bellouin, N.; Guttikunda, S. K.; Hopke, P. K.; Jacobson, M. Z.; Kaiser, J. W.; Klimont, Z.; Lohmann, U.; Schwarz, Joshua P.; Shindell, Drew; Storelvmo, Trude; Warren, Stephen G.; Zender, C. S.

    2013-06-06

    Black carbon aerosol plays a unique and important role in Earth’s climate system. Black carbon is a type of carbonaceous material with a unique combination of physical properties. Predominant sources are combustion related; namely, fossil fuels for transportation, solid fuels for industrial and residential uses, and open burning of biomass. Total global emissions of black carbon using bottom-up inventory methods are 7500 Gg yr-1 in the year 2000 with an uncertainty range of 2000 to 29000. This assessment provides an evaluation of black-carbon climate forcing that is comprehensive in its inclusion of all known and relevant processes and that is quantitative in providing best estimates and uncertainties of the main forcing terms: direct solar absorption, influence on liquid, mixed-phase, and ice clouds, and deposition on snow and ice. These effects are calculated with models, but when possible, they are evaluated with both microphysical measurements and field observations. Global atmospheric absorption attributable to black carbon is too low in many models, and should be increased by about about 60%. After this scaling, the best estimate for the industrial-era (1750 to 2005) direct radiative forcing of black carbon is +0.43 W m-2 with 90% uncertainty bounds of (+0.17, +0.68) W m-2. Total direct forcing by all black carbon sources in the present day is estimated as +0.49 (+0.20, +0.76) W m-2. Direct radiative forcing alone does not capture important rapid adjustment mechanisms. A framework is described and used for quantifying climate forcings and their rapid responses and feedbacks. The best estimate of industrial-era (1750 to 2005) climate forcing of black carbon through all forcing mechanisms is +0.77 W m-2 with 90% uncertainty bounds of +-0.06 to +1.53 W m-2. Thus, there is a 96% probability that black carbon emissions, independent of co-emitted species, have a positive forcing and warm the climate. With a value of +0.77 W m-2, black carbon is likely the second

  5. Isospin nonconservation in nucleon-nucleon scattering by a color force

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Braeuer, K.; Henley, E.M.; Miller, G.A.

    1986-01-01

    A recently performed high accuracy measurement indicates the existence of a spin and isospin nonconserving force in neutron-proton scattering. One origin of this effect can be the influence of the up and down quark mass difference on the one gluon exchange spin-orbit force. We include this effect in a resonating group calculation, and find that its contribution is very small compared to that conventional meson-exchange forces

  6. CASTOR: Cathode/Anode Satellite Thruster for Orbital Repositioning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mruphy, Gloria A.

    2010-01-01

    The purpose of CASTOR (Cathode/Anode Satellite Thruster for Orbital Repositioning) satellite is to demonstrate in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) a nanosatellite that uses a Divergent Cusped Field Thruster (DCFT) to perform orbital maneuvers representative of an orbital transfer vehicle. Powered by semi-deployable solar arrays generating 165W of power, CASTOR will achieve nearly 1 km/s of velocity increment over one year. As a technology demonstration mission, success of CASTOR in LEO will pave the way for a low cost, high delta-V orbital transfer capability for small military and civilian payloads in support of Air Force and NASA missions. The educational objective is to engage graduate and undergraduate students in critical roles in the design, development, test, carrier integration and on-orbit operations of CASTOR as a supplement to their curricular activities. This program is laying the foundation for a long-term satellite construction program at MIT. The satellite is being designed as a part of AFRL's University Nanosatellite Program, which provides the funding and a framework in which student satellite teams compete for a launch to orbit. To this end, the satellite must fit within an envelope of 50cmx50cmx60cm, have a mass of less than 50kg, and meet stringent structural and other requirements. In this framework, the CASTOR team successfully completed PDR in August 2009 and CDR in April 2010 and will compete at FCR (Flight Competition Review) in January 2011. The complexity of the project requires implementation of many systems engineering techniques which allow for development of CASTOR from conception through FCR and encompass the full design, fabrication, and testing process.

  7. Low-Thrust Out-of-Plane Orbital Station-Keeping Maneuvers for Satellites

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vivian M. Gomes

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper considers the problem of out of plane orbital maneuvers for station keeping of satellites. The main idea is to consider that a satellite is in an orbit around the Earth and that it has its orbit is disturbed by one or more forces. Then, it is necessary to perform a small amplitude orbital correction to return the satellite to its original orbit, to keep it performing its mission. A low thrust propulsion is used to complete this task. It is important to search for solutions that minimize the fuel consumption to increase the lifetime of the satellite. To solve this problem a hybrid optimal control approach is used. The accuracy of the satisfaction of the constraints is considered, in order to try to decrease the fuel expenditure by taking advantage of this freedom. This type of problem presents numerical difficulties and it is necessary to adjust parameters, as well as details of the algorithm, to get convergence. In this versions of the algorithm that works well for planar maneuvers are usually not adequate for the out of plane orbital corrections. In order to illustrate the method, some numerical results are presented.

  8. The health impacts of climate-related migration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwerdtle, Patricia; Bowen, Kathryn; McMichael, Celia

    2017-12-11

    Changes in climate, in conjunction with other drivers of mobility, shape human migration. While there is an increasing focus on the adaptive potential of migration, the health impacts of climate-related migration, including planned relocation and forced displacement, have not been thoroughly examined. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change stated that migration is currently, and will increasingly be, influenced by environmental degradation and climate change, and that it needs to be addressed in a focused and coordinated manner. This paper examines the links between climate change, migration, and health, considering diverse migration responses, including immobility, forced displacement and planned migration, as well as the associated health risks and opportunities in different contexts. Using case studies, the paper illustrates strategies to reduce the health risks associated with climate change-related migration. While there is an increasing body of research examining the climate change-migration nexus, a dual approach is now required. This approach must include debate and further research regarding the health consequences and responses associated with climate migration as well as immediate strengthening of health systems to make them both climate resilient and migrant inclusive.

  9. Astrophysical evidence for weak new forces

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Burgess, C.; Cloutier, J.

    1988-01-01

    Recent observations of the orbital precession rate for eclipsing binary star systems appear to be in disagreement with the predictions of general relativity. We here analyse whether these discrepancies can be interpreted as being due to the existence of a new, long range, very weak force. We find that, with a conservative estimate of the astrophysical errors involved, the binary-star data by itself is consistent with what would be expected of a new force. The coupling and range required to fit the data can be consistent with the present limits on the existence of new forces. The strongest constraints come from recent terrestrial searches for a ''fifth force''. This analysis underlines the fact that these binary star systems are sensitive to forces whose coupling strength can be as low as 10 -5 that of gravity

  10. Lunar fingerprints in the modulated incoming solar radiation: In situ insolation and latitudinal insolation gradients as two important interpretative metrics for paleoclimatic data records and theoretical climate modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cionco, Rodolfo Gustavo; Valentini, José Ernesto; Quaranta, Nancy Esther; Soon, Willie W.-H.

    2018-01-01

    We present a new set of solar radiation forcing that now incorporated not only the gravitational perturbation of the Sun-Earth-Moon geometrical orbits but also the intrinsic solar magnetic modulation of the total solar irradiance (TSI). This new dataset, covering the past 2000 years as well as a forward projection for about 100 years based on recent result by Velasco-Herrera et al. (2015), should provide a realistic basis to examine and evaluate the role of external solar forcing on Earth climate on decadal, multidecadal to multicentennial timescales. A second goal of this paper is to propose both in situ insolation forcing variable and the latitudinal insolation gradients (LIG) as two key metrics that are subjected to a deterministic modulation by lunar nodal cycle which are often confused with tidal forcing impacts as assumed and interpreted in previous studies of instrumental and paleoclimatic records. Our new results and datasets are made publicly available for all at PANGAEA site.

  11. Carbonaceous aerosols over China--review of observations, emissions, and climate forcing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Linpeng; Zhou, Xuehua; Ma, Yujie; Cao, Zhaoyu; Wu, Ruidong; Wang, Wenxing

    2016-01-01

    Carbonaceous aerosols have been attracting attention due to the influence on visibility, air quality, and regional climate. Statistical analyses based on concentration levels, spatial-temporal variations, correlations, and organic carbon (OC) to element carbon (EC) ratios from published data of OC and EC in particulate matter (PM2.5 and PM10) were carried out in order to give a carbonaceous aerosol profile in China. The results showed maxima for OC of 29.5 ± 18.2 μg C m(-3) and for EC of 8.4 ± 6.3 μg C m(-3) in winter and minima for OC of 12.9 ± 7.7 μg C m(-3) in summer and for EC of 4.6 ± 2.8 μg C m(-3) in spring. In addition, OC and EC both had higher concentrations in urban than those in rural sites. Carbonaceous aerosol levels in China are about three to seven times higher compared to those in the USA and Europe. OC and EC occupied 20 ± 6 and 7 ± 3% of PM2.5 mass and 17 ± 7 and 5 ± 3% of PM10 mass, respectively, implying that carbonaceous aerosols are the main component of PM, especially OC. Secondary organic carbon (SOC) was a significant portion of PM and contributed 41 ± 26% to OC and 8 ± 6% to PM2.5 mass. The OC/EC ratio was 3.63 ± 1.73, which, along with the good correlation between OC and EC and the OC to EC slope of 2.29, signifies that coal combustion and/or vehicular exhaust is the dominated carbonaceous aerosol source in China. These provide a primary observation-based understanding of carbonaceous aerosol pollution in China and have a great significance in improving the emission inventory and climate forcing evaluation.

  12. Climatic effects of 1950–2050 changes in US anthropogenic aerosols – Part 1: Aerosol trends and radiative forcing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. G. Streets

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available We calculate decadal aerosol direct and indirect (warm cloud radiative forcings from US anthropogenic sources over the 1950–2050 period. Past and future aerosol distributions are constructed using GEOS-Chem and historical emission inventories and future projections from the IPCC A1B scenario. Aerosol simulations are evaluated with observed spatial distributions and 1980–2010 trends of aerosol concentrations and wet deposition in the contiguous US. Direct and indirect radiative forcing is calculated using the GISS general circulation model and monthly mean aerosol distributions from GEOS-Chem. The radiative forcing from US anthropogenic aerosols is strongly localized over the eastern US. We find that its magnitude peaked in 1970–1990, with values over the eastern US (east of 100° W of −2.0 W m−2 for direct forcing including contributions from sulfate (−2.0 W m−2, nitrate (−0.2 W m−2, organic carbon (−0.2 W m−2, and black carbon (+0.4 W m−2. The uncertainties in radiative forcing due to aerosol radiative properties are estimated to be about 50%. The aerosol indirect effect is estimated to be of comparable magnitude to the direct forcing. We find that the magnitude of the forcing declined sharply from 1990 to 2010 (by 0.8 W m−2 direct and 1.0 W m−2 indirect, mainly reflecting decreases in SO2 emissions, and project that it will continue declining post-2010 but at a much slower rate since US SO2 emissions have already declined by almost 60% from their peak. This suggests that much of the warming effect of reducing US anthropogenic aerosol sources has already been realized. The small positive radiative forcing from US BC emissions (+0.3 W m−2 over the eastern US in 2010; 5% of the global forcing from anthropogenic BC emissions worldwide suggests that a US emission control strategy focused on BC would have only limited climate benefit.

  13. The ACPI Climate Change Simulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dai, A.; Washington, W.M.; Meehl, G.A.; Bettge, T.W.; Strand, W.G.

    2004-01-01

    The Parallel Climate Model (PCM) has been used in the Accelerated Climate Prediction Initiative (ACPI) Program to simulate the global climate response to projected CO2, sulfate, and other greenhouse gas forcing under a business-as-usual emissions scenario during the 21st century. In these runs, the oceans were initialized to 1995 conditions by a group from the Scripps Institution of Oceanography and other institutions. An ensemble of three model runs was then carried out to the year 2099 using the projected forcing. Atmospheric data from these runs were saved at 6-hourly intervals (hourly for certain critical fields) to support the ACPI objective of accurately modeling hydrological cycles over the western U.S. It is shown that the initialization to 1995 conditions partly removes the un-forced oceanic temperature and salinity drifts that occurred in the standard 20th century integration. The ACPI runs show a global surface temperature increase of 3-8C over northern high-latitudes by the end of the 21st century, and 1-2C over the oceans. This is generally within ±0.1C of model runs without the 1995 ocean initialization. The exception is in the Antarctic circumpolar ocean where surface air temperature is cooler in the ACPI run; however the ensemble scatter is large in this region. Although the difference in climate at the end of the 21st century is minimal between the ACPI runs and traditionally spun up runs, it might be larger for CGCMs with higher climate sensitivity or larger ocean drifts. Our results suggest that the effect of small errors in the oceans (such as those associated with climate drifts) on CGCM-simulated climate changes for the next 50-100 years may be negligible

  14. Climate change: Scientific background and process

    OpenAIRE

    Alfsen, Knut H.; Fuglestvedt, Jan S.; Seip, Hans Martin; Skodvin, Tora

    2000-01-01

    The paper gives a brief description of natural and man-made forces behind climate change and outlines climate variations in the past together with a brief synopsis likely future impacts of anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases. The paper also gives a briefing on the background, organisation and functioning of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

  15. Possible climate change over Eurasia under different emission scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sokolov, A. P.; Monier, E.; Gao, X.

    2012-12-01

    In an attempt to evaluate possible climate change over EURASIA, we analyze results of six AMIP type simulations with CAM version 3 (CAM3) at 2x2.5 degree resolution. CAM3 is driven by time series of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and sea ice obtained by running the MIT IGSM2.3, which consists of a 3D ocean GCM coupled to a zonally-averaged atmospheric climate-chemistry model. In addition to changes in SSTs, CAM3 is forced by changes in greenhouse gases and ozone concentrations, sulfate aerosol forcing and black carbon loading calculated by the IGSM2.3. An essential feature of the IGSM is the possibility to vary its climate sensitivity (using a cloud adjustment technique) and the strength of the aerosol forcing. For consistency, new modules were developed in CAM3 to modify its climate sensitivity and aerosol forcing to match those used in the simulations with the IGSM2.3. The simulations presented in this paper were carried out for two emission scenarios, a "Business as usual" scenario and a 660 ppm of CO2-EQ stabilization, which are similar to the RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 scenarios, respectively. Values of climate sensitivity used in the simulations within the IGSM-CAM framework are median and the bounds of the 90% probability interval of the probability distribution obtained by comparing the 20th century climate simulated by different versions of the IGSM with observations. The associated strength of the aerosol forcing was chosen to ensure a good agreement with the observed climate change over the 20th century. Because the concentration of sulfate aerosol significantly decreases over the 21st century in both emissions scenarios, climate changes obtained in these simulations provide a good approximation for the median, and the 5th and 95th percentiles of the probability distribution of 21st century climate change.

  16. Climate Sensitivity, Sea Level, and Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, James; Sato, Makiko; Russell, Gary; Kharecha, Pushker

    2013-01-01

    Cenozoic temperature, sea level and CO2 covariations provide insights into climate sensitivity to external forcings and sea-level sensitivity to climate change. Climate sensitivity depends on the initial climate state, but potentially can be accurately inferred from precise palaeoclimate data. Pleistocene climate oscillations yield a fast-feedback climate sensitivity of 3+/-1deg C for a 4 W/sq m CO2 forcing if Holocene warming relative to the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) is used as calibration, but the error (uncertainty) is substantial and partly subjective because of poorly defined LGM global temperature and possible human influences in the Holocene. Glacial-to-interglacial climate change leading to the prior (Eemian) interglacial is less ambiguous and implies a sensitivity in the upper part of the above range, i.e. 3-4deg C for a 4 W/sq m CO2 forcing. Slow feedbacks, especially change of ice sheet size and atmospheric CO2, amplify the total Earth system sensitivity by an amount that depends on the time scale considered. Ice sheet response time is poorly defined, but we show that the slow response and hysteresis in prevailing ice sheet models are exaggerated. We use a global model, simplified to essential processes, to investigate state dependence of climate sensitivity, finding an increased sensitivity towards warmer climates, as low cloud cover is diminished and increased water vapour elevates the tropopause. Burning all fossil fuels, we conclude, would make most of the planet uninhabitable by humans, thus calling into question strategies that emphasize adaptation to climate change.

  17. The greening of the McGill Paleoclimate Model. Part II: Simulation of Holocene millennial-scale natural climate changes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, Yi; Mysak, Lawrence A.; Wang, Zhaomin [McGill University, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences and Global Environmental and Climate Change Centre (GEC3), Montreal, Quebec (Canada); Brovkin, Victor [Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), 601203, Potsdam (Germany)

    2005-04-01

    Various proxy data reveal that in many regions of the Northern Hemisphere (NH), the middle Holocene (6 kyr BP) was warmer than the early Holocene (8 kyr BP) as well as the later Holocene, up to the end of the pre-industrial period (1800 AD). This pattern of warming and then cooling in the NH represents the response of the climate system to changes in orbital forcing, vegetation cover and the Laurentide Ice Sheet (LIS) during the Holocene. In an attempt to better understand these changes in the climate system, the McGill Paleoclimate Model (MPM) has been coupled to the dynamic global vegetation model known as VECODE (see Part I of this two-part paper), and a number of sensitivity experiments have been performed with the ''green'' MPM. The model results illustrate the following: (1) the orbital forcing together with the vegetation - albedo feedback result in the gradual cooling of global SAT from about 6 kyr BP to the end of the pre-industrial period; (2) the disappearance of the LIS over the period 8-6 kyr BP, associated with vegetation - albedo feedback, allows the global SAT to increase and reach its maximum at around 6 kyr BP; (3) the northern limit of the boreal forest moves northward during the period 8-6.4 kyr BP due to the LIS retreat; (4) during the period 6.4-0 kyr BP, the northern limit of the boreal forest moves southward about 120 km in response to the decreasing summer insolation in the NH; and (5) the desertification of northern Africa during the period 8-2.6 kyr BP is mainly explained by the decreasing summer monsoon precipitation. (orig.)

  18. Seasonal modulation of the Asian summer monsoon between the Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age: a multi model study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kamae, Youichi; Kawana, Toshi; Oshiro, Megumi; Ueda, Hiroaki

    2017-12-01

    Instrumental and proxy records indicate remarkable global climate variability over the last millennium, influenced by solar irradiance, Earth's orbital parameters, volcanic eruptions and human activities. Numerical model simulations and proxy data suggest an enhanced Asian summer monsoon during the Medieval Warm Period (MWP) compared to the Little Ice Age (LIA). Using multiple climate model simulations, we show that anomalous seasonal insolation over the Northern Hemisphere due to a long cycle of orbital parameters results in a modulation of the Asian summer monsoon transition between the MWP and LIA. Ten climate model simulations prescribing historical radiative forcing that includes orbital parameters consistently reproduce an enhanced MWP Asian monsoon in late summer and a weakened monsoon in early summer. Weakened, then enhanced Northern Hemisphere insolation before and after June leads to a seasonally asymmetric temperature response over the Eurasian continent, resulting in a seasonal reversal of the signs of MWP-LIA anomalies in land-sea thermal contrast, atmospheric circulation, and rainfall from early to late summer. This seasonal asymmetry in monsoon response is consistently found among the different climate models and is reproduced by an idealized model simulation forced solely by orbital parameters. The results of this study indicate that slow variation in the Earth's orbital parameters contributes to centennial variability in the Asian monsoon transition.[Figure not available: see fulltext.

  19. Bioclim Deliverable D3: global climatic features over the next million years and recommendation for specific situations to be considered

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2001-01-01

    ). The ice volume is relaxed to zero during the interglacial regime and there is no relaxation term during glacial regime. In both regimes the forcing is a function of a smoothed truncation of the insolation and of the obliquity. Similarly, the CO 2 concentration is relaxed towards prescribed values, according to the regime and the forcing. As for ice volume the forcing is a function of insolation and obliquity. The transition between the different regimes occurs when insolation (Northern Hemisphere Summer solstice at 65N and March equinox at 40S), obliquity and ice volume cross prescribed thresholds. It must be noted that in this model CO 2 concentration does not act on climate. This model reproduced reasonably well the succession of glacial-interglacial cycles over the late Pleistocene. Such model can only account for the natural state of the climate system and not for the potential human impact on climate. The LLN 2-D NH (two-dimension Northern Hemisphere) climate model developed in Louvain-la-Neuve has been used to simulate the global climate change over the next one million years (section 2). The primary forcing of this model is the computed latitudinal and seasonal distribution of insolation linked to orbital variations. The atmospheric concentration of CO 2 plays an important role in modifying the amplitude of the long term climatic response to solar forcing. Natural CO 2 variation is an integral component of the biosphere system. However, the model does not include a full carbon cycle that would allow the atmospheric CO 2 concentration to be internally computed. Besides, human activities also introduce additional greenhouse gases (including CO 2 ) into the atmosphere from fossil fuel burning. Therefore, various alternative scenarios of the future greenhouse gas concentration have been identified and are considered as an external forcing mechanism. Some scenarios for the future atmospheric CO 2 concentration are presented in Section 2 and have been used in the LLN

  20. Astronomy and the Climate Crisis

    CERN Document Server

    Cooke, Antony

    2012-01-01

    Climate change is one of the most hotly debated issues of today. Increasing global temperatures will impact all of us. There are more questions than answers, however, and sweeping statements on the subject made by public figures, often with little scientific understanding, only further confuses public opinion. Astronomical factors, apart from passing references to the Sun, are given short shrift in relation to climate change. However, they might be amongst the major determinants of it.  A presentation of those that have been studied that some scientists suspect might be involved are featured in this book. Included is an in-depth look at the physics of climate itself, the potential effects of the Sun, solar storms, sunspots, solar variability, the magnetosphere, solar cycles, influences of nearby planets, orbital factors, cosmic rays, possible galactic influences, monitoring from space, even climate change elsewhere in the solar system, and much more. The greatest challenge climate change scientists face is d...

  1. Dissemination of Climate Model Output to the Public and Commercial Sector

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Robert Stockwell, PhD

    2010-09-23

    Climate is defined by the Glossary of Meteorology as the mean of atmospheric variables over a period of time ranging from as short as a few months to multiple years and longer. Although the term climate is often used to refer to long-term weather statistics, the broader definition of climate is the time evolution of a system consisting of the atmosphere, hydrosphere, lithosphere, and biosphere. Physical, chemical, and biological processes are involved in interactions among the components of the climate system. Vegetation, soil moisture, and glaciers are part of the climate system in addition to the usually considered temperature and precipitation (Pielke, 2008). Climate change refers to any systematic change in the long-term statistics of climate elements (such as temperature, pressure, or winds) sustained over several decades or longer. Climate change can be initiated by external forces, such as cyclical variations in the Earth's solar orbit that are thought to have caused glacial and interglacial periods within the last 2 million years (Milankovitch, 1941). However, a linear response to astronomical forcing does not explain many other observed glacial and interglacial cycles (Petit et al., 1999). It is now understood that climate is influenced by the interaction of solar radiation with atmospheric greenhouse gasses (e.g., carbon dioxide, chlorofluorocarbons, methane, nitrous oxide, etc.), aerosols (airborne particles), and Earth's surface. A significant aspect of climate are the interannual cycles, such as the El Nino La Nina cycle which profoundly affects the weather in North America but is outside the scope of weather forecasts. Some of the most significant advances in understanding climate change have evolved from the recognition of the influence of ocean circulations upon the atmosphere (IPCC, 2007). Human activity can affect the climate system through increasing concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases, air pollution, increasing

  2. Climatic Change and the Classroom: A Teaching Aid to Understanding.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanders, C. Gerald

    Equable climates with mild winters and summers are more likely to maintain snow or ice cover in high latitudes than extreme climates having colder winters and hotter summers. A simplified version of the Milankovitch cycles can be used to develop a model instructors can use in their classes to illustrate the orbital variations producing either…

  3. Antarctic climate and ice-sheet configuration during the early Pliocene interglacial at 4.23 Ma

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. R. Golledge

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available The geometry of Antarctic ice sheets during warm periods of the geological past is difficult to determine from geological evidence, but is important to know because such reconstructions enable a more complete understanding of how the ice-sheet system responds to changes in climate. Here we investigate how Antarctica evolved under orbital and greenhouse gas conditions representative of an interglacial in the early Pliocene at 4.23 Ma, when Southern Hemisphere insolation reached a maximum. Using offline-coupled climate and ice-sheet models, together with a new synthesis of high-latitude palaeoenvironmental proxy data to define a likely climate envelope, we simulate a range of ice-sheet geometries and calculate their likely contribution to sea level. In addition, we use these simulations to investigate the processes by which the West and East Antarctic ice sheets respond to environmental forcings and the timescales over which these behaviours manifest. We conclude that the Antarctic ice sheet contributed 8.6 ± 2.8 m to global sea level at this time, under an atmospheric CO2 concentration identical to present (400 ppm. Warmer-than-present ocean temperatures led to the collapse of West Antarctica over centuries, whereas higher air temperatures initiated surface melting in parts of East Antarctica that over one to two millennia led to lowering of the ice-sheet surface, flotation of grounded margins in some areas, and retreat of the ice sheet into the Wilkes Subglacial Basin. The results show that regional variations in climate, ice-sheet geometry, and topography produce long-term sea-level contributions that are non-linear with respect to the applied forcings, and which under certain conditions exhibit threshold behaviour associated with behavioural tipping points.

  4. White Paper No 54 (2000-2001). Norwegian Climate Policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2001-01-01

    This White Paper from the Norwegian Government discusses the climate problem as a global challenge, Norway's strategy for meeting the Climate Convention and the Kyoto Protocol, the national climate policies of other countries, Norwegian national climate policy in the short term, and Norwegian national climate policy with the Kyoto agreement in force

  5. Mean Orbital Elements for Geosynchronous Orbit - II - Orbital inclination, longitude of ascending node, mean longitude

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kyu-Hong Choi

    1990-06-01

    Full Text Available The osculating orbital elements include the mean, secular, long period, and short period terms. The iterative algorithm used for conversion of osculating orbital elements to mean orbital elements is described. The mean orbital elements of Wc, Ws, and L are obtained.

  6. Plastic-covered agriculture forces the regional climate to change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, D.; Chen, J.; Chen, X.; Cao, X.

    2016-12-01

    The practice of plastic-covered agriculture as a solution to moderate the dilemma of global food shortage, meanwhile, brings great pressure to the local environment. This research was conducted to reveal the impacts of plastic-covered agritulture on regional climate change by experimenting in a plastic greenhouse (PG) dominated area - Weifang district, Shandong province, China. Based on a new plastic greenhouse index (PGI) proposed in this study, we reconstructed the spatial distribution of PG across 1995-2015 in the study area. With that, land surface temperature (LST) dataset combined with surface evapotranspiration, surface reflectance and precipitation data, was applied to the probe of PG's climatic impacts. Results showed that PG, in the study area, has experienced a striking spatial expansion during the past 20 years, and more important, the expansion correlated strongly to the local climate change. It showed that the annual precipitation, in the study area, decreased during these years, which constrasts to a slightly increasing trend of the adjacent districts without PG construction. In addition, resulting from the greenhouse effect, PG area presented a harsher increase of surface temperature compared to the non-PG areas. Our study also telled that the evapotranspiration of PG area has been largely cutted down ascribing to the gas tightness of plastic materials, showing a decline around 40%. This indicates a way that the development of plastic-covered agriculture may contribute to the change of the local climate.

  7. The Net Climate Impact of Coal-Fired Power Plant Emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shindell, D.; Faluvegi, G.

    2010-01-01

    Coal-fired power plants influence climate via both the emission of long-lived carbon dioxide (CO2) and short-lived ozone and aerosol precursors. Using a climate model, we perform the first study of the spatial and temporal pattern of radiative forcing specifically for coal plant emissions. Without substantial pollution controls, we find that near-term net global mean climate forcing is negative due to the well-known aerosol masking of the effects of CO2. Imposition of pollution controls on sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxides leads to a rapid realization of the full positive forcing from CO2, however. Long-term global mean forcing from stable (constant) emissions is positive regardless of pollution controls. Emissions from coal-fired power plants until 1970, including roughly 1/3 of total anthropogenic CO2 emissions, likely contributed little net global mean climate forcing during that period though they may have induce weak Northern Hemisphere mid-latitude (NHml) cooling. After that time many areas imposed pollution controls or switched to low sulfur coal. Hence forcing due to emissions from 1970 to 2000 and CO2 emitted previously was strongly positive and contributed to rapid global and especially NHml warming. Most recently, new construction in China and India has increased rapidly with minimal application of pollution controls. Continuation of this trend would add negative near-term global mean climate forcing but severely degrade air quality. Conversely, following the Western and Japanese pattern of imposing air quality pollution controls at a later time could accelerate future warming rates, especially at NHmls. More broadly, our results indicate that due to spatial and temporal inhomogeneities in forcing, climate impacts of multi-pollutant emissions can vary strongly from region to region and can include substantial effects on maximum rate-of-change, neither of which are captured by commonly used global metrics. The method we introduce here to estimate

  8. Solar radiation pressure application for orbital motion stabilization near the Sun-Earth collinear libration point

    Science.gov (United States)

    Polyakhova, Elena; Shmyrov, Alexander; Shmyrov, Vasily

    2018-05-01

    Orbital maneuvering in a neighborhood of the collinear libration point L1 of Sun-Earth system has specific properties, primarily associated with the instability L1. For a long stay in this area of space the stabilization problem of orbital motion requires a solution. Numerical experiments have shown that for stabilization of motion it is requires very small control influence in comparison with the gravitational forces. On the other hand, the stabilization time is quite long - months, and possibly years. This makes it highly desirable to use solar pressure forces. In this paper we illustrate the solar sail possibilities for solving of stabilization problem in a neighborhood L1 with use of the model example.

  9. A UNIFIED FRAMEWORK FOR THE ORBITAL STRUCTURE OF BARS AND TRIAXIAL ELLIPSOIDS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Valluri, Monica; Abbott, Caleb [Department of Astronomy, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109 (United States); Shen, Juntai [Key Laboratory for Research in Galaxies and Cosmology, Shanghai Astronomical Observatory, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 80 Nandan Road, Shanghai 200030 (China); Debattista, Victor P., E-mail: mvalluri@umich.edu, E-mail: calebga@umich.edu, E-mail: jshen@shao.ac.cn, E-mail: vpdebattista@uclan.ac.uk [Jeremiah Horrocks Institute, University of Central Lancashire, Preston, PR1 2HE (United Kingdom)

    2016-02-20

    We examine a large random sample of orbits in two self-consistent simulations of N-body bars. Orbits in these bars are classified both visually and with a new automated orbit classification method based on frequency analysis. The well-known prograde x1 orbit family originates from the same parent orbit as the box orbits in stationary and rotating triaxial ellipsoids. However, only a small fraction of bar orbits (∼4%) have predominately prograde motion like their periodic parent orbit. Most bar orbits arising from the x1 orbit have little net angular momentum in the bar frame, making them equivalent to box orbits in rotating triaxial potentials. In these simulations a small fraction of bar orbits (∼7%) are long-axis tubes that behave exactly like those in triaxial ellipsoids: they are tipped about the intermediate axis owing to the Coriolis force, with the sense of tipping determined by the sign of their angular momentum about the long axis. No orbits parented by prograde periodic x2 orbits are found in the pure bar model, but a tiny population (∼2%) of short-axis tube orbits parented by retrograde x4 orbits are found. When a central point mass representing a supermassive black hole (SMBH) is grown adiabatically at the center of the bar, those orbits that lie in the immediate vicinity of the SMBH are transformed into precessing Keplerian orbits that belong to the same major families (short-axis tubes, long-axis tubes and boxes) occupying the bar at larger radii. During the growth of an SMBH, the inflow of mass and outward transport of angular momentum transform some x1 and long-axis tube orbits into prograde short-axis tubes. This study has important implications for future attempts to constrain the masses of SMBHs in barred galaxies using orbit-based methods like the Schwarzschild orbit superposition scheme and for understanding the observed features in barred galaxies.

  10. Arctic climate change and decadal variability

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Linden, van der Eveline C.

    2016-01-01

    High northern latitudes exhibit enhanced near-surface warming in a climate with increasing greenhouse gases compared to other parts of the globe, indicating an amplified climate response to external forcing. Decadal to multidecadal variability sometimes enhances and at other times reduces the

  11. Millennial Scale Variability of the AMOC and its Link to Climate During the Holocene

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thornalley, D. J.; Oppo, D.; Keigwin, L. D.; Hall, I. R.; Moffa Sanchez, P.

    2014-12-01

    Several proxy and modelling studies suggest that there may have been considerable change in the operation the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) during the Holocene. Yet despite its importance for regional and global climate, the Holocene history of the AMOC is poorly constrained. Improving our knowledge of past AMOC variability will contribute to our general understanding of the dynamics of ocean circulation and the role it may play in causing or amplifying climate variability on millennial timescales. We present Holocene grain-size records in depth transects from Blake Outer Ridge and Cape Hatteras, sampling the full-depth range of the Deep Western Boundary Current (DWBC), the lower limb of the AMOC. These records will complement a depth-transect of grain-size records sampling the Iceland-Scotland (I-S) overflow, showing Holocene variations that reflect deglacial meltwater forcing in the early Holocene and insolation-forced trends from the middle-to-late Holocene (Thornalley et al., 2013, Climate of the Past). We will also present detailed grain-size records for the last 2,000 years, both in a depth transect of cores off Cape Hatteras, and from cores in the Iceland Basin, sampling the I-S overflow. Our extensive datasets enable us to provide a coherent synthesis of changes in the flow strength of key components of the AMOC on centennial-millennial and orbital timescales, which we can use to develop our understanding of past millennial-scale climate variability. Specific questions to be addressed include: How well coupled are Holocene trends in Iceland-Scotland overflow and the DWBC? How did I-S overflow and the AMOC vary during the last millennia, including the last ~150 years since the end of the Little Ice Age? Initial results suggest a long-term anti-phasing of the Nordic overflows, wherein mid-late Holocene weakening of the I-S overflow has been compensated for by a strengthening of Denmark Strait overflow. We will also report on pronounced

  12. Modeling climatic effects of anthropogenic CO2 emissions: Unknowns and uncertainties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soon, W.; Baliunas, S.; Idso, S.; Kondratyev, K. Ya.; Posmentier, E. S.

    2001-12-01

    A likelihood of disastrous global environmental consequences has been surmised as a result of projected increases in anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. These estimates are based on computer climate modeling, a branch of science still in its infancy despite recent, substantial strides in knowledge. Because the expected anthropogenic climate forcings are relatively small compared to other background and forcing factors (internal and external), the credibility of the modeled global and regional responses rests on the validity of the models. We focus on this important question of climate model validation. Specifically, we review common deficiencies in general circulation model calculations of atmospheric temperature, surface temperature, precipitation and their spatial and temporal variability. These deficiencies arise from complex problems associated with parameterization of multiply-interacting climate components, forcings and feedbacks, involving especially clouds and oceans. We also review examples of expected climatic impacts from anthropogenic CO2 forcing. Given the host of uncertainties and unknowns in the difficult but important task of climate modeling, the unique attribution of observed current climate change to increased atmospheric CO2 concentration, including the relatively well-observed latest 20 years, is not possible. We further conclude that the incautious use of GCMs to make future climate projections from incomplete or unknown forcing scenarios is antithetical to the intrinsically heuristic value of models. Such uncritical application of climate models has led to the commonly-held but erroneous impression that modeling has proven or substantiated the hypothesis that CO2 added to the air has caused or will cause significant global warming. An assessment of the positive skills of GCMs and their use in suggesting a discernible human influence on global climate can be found in the joint World Meteorological Organisation and United Nations

  13. Solar forcing for CMIP6 (v3.2)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matthes, Katja; Funke, Bernd; Andersson, Monika E.; Barnard, Luke; Beer, Jürg; Charbonneau, Paul; Clilverd, Mark A.; Dudok de Wit, Thierry; Haberreiter, Margit; Hendry, Aaron; Jackman, Charles H.; Kretzschmar, Matthieu; Kruschke, Tim; Kunze, Markus; Langematz, Ulrike; Marsh, Daniel R.; Maycock, Amanda C.; Misios, Stergios; Rodger, Craig J.; Scaife, Adam A.; Seppälä, Annika; Shangguan, Ming; Sinnhuber, Miriam; Tourpali, Kleareti; Usoskin, Ilya; van de Kamp, Max; Verronen, Pekka T.; Versick, Stefan

    2017-06-01

    This paper describes the recommended solar forcing dataset for CMIP6 and highlights changes with respect to CMIP5. The solar forcing is provided for radiative properties, namely total solar irradiance (TSI), solar spectral irradiance (SSI), and the F10.7 index as well as particle forcing, including geomagnetic indices Ap and Kp, and ionization rates to account for effects of solar protons, electrons, and galactic cosmic rays. This is the first time that a recommendation for solar-driven particle forcing has been provided for a CMIP exercise. The solar forcing datasets are provided at daily and monthly resolution separately for the CMIP6 preindustrial control, historical (1850-2014), and future (2015-2300) simulations. For the preindustrial control simulation, both constant and time-varying solar forcing components are provided, with the latter including variability on 11-year and shorter timescales but no long-term changes. For the future, we provide a realistic scenario of what solar behavior could be, as well as an additional extreme Maunder-minimum-like sensitivity scenario. This paper describes the forcing datasets and also provides detailed recommendations as to their implementation in current climate models.For the historical simulations, the TSI and SSI time series are defined as the average of two solar irradiance models that are adapted to CMIP6 needs: an empirical one (NRLTSI2-NRLSSI2) and a semi-empirical one (SATIRE). A new and lower TSI value is recommended: the contemporary solar-cycle average is now 1361.0 W m-2. The slight negative trend in TSI over the three most recent solar cycles in the CMIP6 dataset leads to only a small global radiative forcing of -0.04 W m-2. In the 200-400 nm wavelength range, which is important for ozone photochemistry, the CMIP6 solar forcing dataset shows a larger solar-cycle variability contribution to TSI than in CMIP5 (50 % compared to 35 %).We compare the climatic effects of the CMIP6 solar forcing dataset to its CMIP

  14. Solar forcing for CMIP6 (v3.2

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Matthes

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper describes the recommended solar forcing dataset for CMIP6 and highlights changes with respect to CMIP5. The solar forcing is provided for radiative properties, namely total solar irradiance (TSI, solar spectral irradiance (SSI, and the F10.7 index as well as particle forcing, including geomagnetic indices Ap and Kp, and ionization rates to account for effects of solar protons, electrons, and galactic cosmic rays. This is the first time that a recommendation for solar-driven particle forcing has been provided for a CMIP exercise. The solar forcing datasets are provided at daily and monthly resolution separately for the CMIP6 preindustrial control, historical (1850–2014, and future (2015–2300 simulations. For the preindustrial control simulation, both constant and time-varying solar forcing components are provided, with the latter including variability on 11-year and shorter timescales but no long-term changes. For the future, we provide a realistic scenario of what solar behavior could be, as well as an additional extreme Maunder-minimum-like sensitivity scenario. This paper describes the forcing datasets and also provides detailed recommendations as to their implementation in current climate models.For the historical simulations, the TSI and SSI time series are defined as the average of two solar irradiance models that are adapted to CMIP6 needs: an empirical one (NRLTSI2–NRLSSI2 and a semi-empirical one (SATIRE. A new and lower TSI value is recommended: the contemporary solar-cycle average is now 1361.0 W m−2. The slight negative trend in TSI over the three most recent solar cycles in the CMIP6 dataset leads to only a small global radiative forcing of −0.04 W m−2. In the 200–400 nm wavelength range, which is important for ozone photochemistry, the CMIP6 solar forcing dataset shows a larger solar-cycle variability contribution to TSI than in CMIP5 (50 % compared to 35 %.We compare the climatic effects of

  15. Climate Intervention as an Optimization Problem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caldeira, Ken; Ban-Weiss, George A.

    2010-05-01

    Typically, climate models simulations of intentional intervention in the climate system have taken the approach of imposing a change (eg, in solar flux, aerosol concentrations, aerosol emissions) and then predicting how that imposed change might affect Earth's climate or chemistry. Computations proceed from cause to effect. However, humans often proceed from "What do I want?" to "How do I get it?" One approach to thinking about intentional intervention in the climate system ("geoengineering") is to ask "What kind of climate do we want?" and then ask "What pattern of radiative forcing would come closest to achieving that desired climate state?" This involves defining climate goals and a cost function that measures how closely those goals are attained. (An important next step is to ask "How would we go about producing these desired patterns of radiative forcing?" However, this question is beyond the scope of our present study.) We performed a variety of climate simulations in NCAR's CAM3.1 atmospheric general circulation model with a slab ocean model and thermodynamic sea ice model. We then evaluated, for a specific set of climate forcing basis functions (ie, aerosol concentration distributions), the extent to which the climate response to a linear combination of those basis functions was similar to a linear combination of the climate response to each basis function taken individually. We then developed several cost functions (eg, relative to the 1xCO2 climate, minimize rms difference in zonal and annual mean land temperature, minimize rms difference in zonal and annual mean runoff, minimize rms difference in a combination of these temperature and runoff indices) and then predicted optimal combinations of our basis functions that would minimize these cost functions. Lastly, we produced forward simulations of the predicted optimal radiative forcing patterns and compared these with our expected results. Obviously, our climate model is much simpler than reality and

  16. The susceptibility of large river basins to orogenic and climatic drivers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haedke, Hanna; Wittmann, Hella; von Blanckenburg, Friedhelm

    2017-04-01

    Large rivers are known to buffer pulses in sediment production driven by changes in climate as sediment is transported through lowlands. Our new dataset of in situ cosmogenic nuclide concentration and chemical composition of 62 sandy bedload samples from the world largest rivers integrates over 25% of Earth's terrestrial surface, distributed over a variety of climatic zones across all continents, and represents the millennial-scale denudation rate of the sediment's source area. We can show that these denudation rates do not respond to climatic forcing, but faithfully record orogenic forcing, when analyzed with respective variables representing orogeny (strain rate, relief, bouguer anomaly, free-air anomaly), and climate (runoff, temperature, precipitation) and basin properties (floodplain response time, drainage area). In contrast to this orogenic forcing of denudation rates, elemental bedload chemistry from the fine-grained portion of the same samples correlates with climate-related variables (precipitation, runoff) and floodplain response times. It is also well-known from previous compilations of river-gauged sediment loads that the short-term basin-integrated sediment export is also climatically controlled. The chemical composition of detrital sediment shows a climate control that can originate in the rivers source area, but this signal is likely overprinted during transfer through the lowlands because we also find correlation with floodplain response times. At the same time, cosmogenic nuclides robustly preserve the orogenic forcing of the source area denudation signal through of the floodplain buffer. Conversely, previous global compilations of cosmogenic nuclides in small river basins show the preservation of climate drivers in their analysis, but these are buffered in large lowland rivers. Hence, we can confirm the assumption that cosmogenic nuclides in large rivers are poorly susceptible to climate changes, but are at the same time highly suited to detect

  17. Detecting anthropogenic climate change with an optimal fingerprint method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hegerl, G.C.; Storch, H. von; Hasselmann, K.; Santer, B.D.; Jones, P.D.

    1994-01-01

    We propose a general fingerprint strategy to detect anthropogenic climate change and present application to near surface temperature trends. An expected time-space-variable pattern of anthropogenic climate change (the 'signal') is identified through application of an appropriate optimally matched space-time filter (the 'fingerprint') to the observations. The signal and the fingerprint are represented in a space with sufficient observed and simulated data. The signal pattern is derived from a model-generated prediction of anthropogenic climate change. Application of the fingerprint filter to the data yields a scalar detection variable. The statistically optimal fingerprint is obtained by weighting the model-predicted pattern towards low-noise directions. A combination of model output and observations is used to estimate the noise characteristics of the detection variable, arising from the natural variability of climate in the absence of external forcing. We test then the null hypothesis that the observed climate change is part of natural climate variability. We conclude that a statistically significant externally induced warming has been observed, with the caveat of a possibly inadequate estimate of the internal climate variability. In order to attribute this warming uniquely to anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing, more information on the climate's response to other forcing mechanisms (e.g. changes in solar radiation, volcanic or anthropogenic aerosols) and their interaction is needed. (orig./KW)

  18. Indian monsoon variability on millennial-orbital timescales.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kathayat, Gayatri; Cheng, Hai; Sinha, Ashish; Spötl, Christoph; Edwards, R Lawrence; Zhang, Haiwei; Li, Xianglei; Yi, Liang; Ning, Youfeng; Cai, Yanjun; Lui, Weiguo Lui; Breitenbach, Sebastian F M

    2016-04-13

    The Indian summer monsoon (ISM) monsoon is critical to billions of people living in the region. Yet, significant debates remain on primary ISM drivers on millennial-orbital timescales. Here, we use speleothem oxygen isotope (δ(18)O) data from Bittoo cave, Northern India to reconstruct ISM variability over the past 280,000 years. We find strong coherence between North Indian and Chinese speleothem δ(18)O records from the East Asian monsoon domain, suggesting that both Asian monsoon subsystems exhibit a coupled response to changes in Northern Hemisphere summer insolation (NHSI) without significant temporal lags, supporting the view that the tropical-subtropical monsoon variability is driven directly by precession-induced changes in NHSI. Comparisons of the North Indian record with both Antarctic ice core and sea-surface temperature records from the southern Indian Ocean over the last glacial period do not suggest a dominant role of Southern Hemisphere climate processes in regulating the ISM variability on millennial-orbital timescales.

  19. [Orbital inflammation].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mouriaux, F; Coffin-Pichonnet, S; Robert, P-Y; Abad, S; Martin-Silva, N

    2014-12-01

    Orbital inflammation is a generic term encompassing inflammatory pathologies affecting all structures within the orbit : anterior (involvement up to the posterior aspect of the globe), diffuse (involvement of intra- and/or extraconal fat), apical (involvement of the posterior orbit), myositis (involvement of only the extraocular muscles), dacryoadenitis (involvement of the lacrimal gland). We distinguish between specific inflammation and non-specific inflammation, commonly referred to as idiopathic inflammation. Specific orbital inflammation corresponds to a secondary localization of a "generalized" disease (systemic or auto-immune). Idiopathic orbital inflammation corresponds to uniquely orbital inflammation without generalized disease, and thus an unknown etiology. At the top of the differential diagnosis for specific or idiopathic orbital inflammation are malignant tumors, represented most commonly in the adult by lympho-proliferative syndromes and metastases. Treatment of specific orbital inflammation begins with treatment of the underlying disease. For idiopathic orbital inflammation, treatment (most often corticosteroids) is indicated above all in cases of visual loss due to optic neuropathy, in the presence of pain or oculomotor palsy. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

  20. PyORBIT: A Python Shell For ORBIT

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jean-Francois Ostiguy; Jeffrey Holmes

    2003-07-01

    ORBIT is code developed at SNS to simulate beam dynamics in accumulation rings and synchrotrons. The code is structured as a collection of external C++ modules for SuperCode, a high level interpreter shell developed at LLNL in the early 1990s. SuperCode is no longer actively supported and there has for some time been interest in replacing it by a modern scripting language, while preserving the feel of the original ORBIT program. In this paper, we describe a new version of ORBIT where the role of SuperCode is assumed by Python, a free, well-documented and widely supported object-oriented scripting language. We also compare PyORBIT to ORBIT from the standpoint of features, performance and future expandability.

  1. PyORBIT: A Python Shell For ORBIT

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jean-Francois Ostiguy; Jeffrey Holmes

    2003-01-01

    ORBIT is code developed at SNS to simulate beam dynamics in accumulation rings and synchrotrons. The code is structured as a collection of external C++ modules for SuperCode, a high level interpreter shell developed at LLNL in the early 1990s. SuperCode is no longer actively supported and there has for some time been interest in replacing it by a modern scripting language, while preserving the feel of the original ORBIT program. In this paper, we describe a new version of ORBIT where the role of SuperCode is assumed by Python, a free, well-documented and widely supported object-oriented scripting language. We also compare PyORBIT to ORBIT from the standpoint of features, performance and future expandability

  2. Analytically tractable climate-carbon cycle feedbacks under 21st century anthropogenic forcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lade, Steven J.; Donges, Jonathan F.; Fetzer, Ingo; Anderies, John M.; Beer, Christian; Cornell, Sarah E.; Gasser, Thomas; Norberg, Jon; Richardson, Katherine; Rockström, Johan; Steffen, Will

    2018-05-01

    Changes to climate-carbon cycle feedbacks may significantly affect the Earth system's response to greenhouse gas emissions. These feedbacks are usually analysed from numerical output of complex and arguably opaque Earth system models. Here, we construct a stylised global climate-carbon cycle model, test its output against comprehensive Earth system models, and investigate the strengths of its climate-carbon cycle feedbacks analytically. The analytical expressions we obtain aid understanding of carbon cycle feedbacks and the operation of the carbon cycle. Specific results include that different feedback formalisms measure fundamentally the same climate-carbon cycle processes; temperature dependence of the solubility pump, biological pump, and CO2 solubility all contribute approximately equally to the ocean climate-carbon feedback; and concentration-carbon feedbacks may be more sensitive to future climate change than climate-carbon feedbacks. Simple models such as that developed here also provide workbenches for simple but mechanistically based explorations of Earth system processes, such as interactions and feedbacks between the planetary boundaries, that are currently too uncertain to be included in comprehensive Earth system models.

  3. Self-force correction to geodetic spin precession in Kerr spacetime

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akcay, Sarp

    2017-08-01

    We present an expression for the gravitational self-force correction to the geodetic spin precession of a spinning compact object with small, but non-negligible mass in a bound, equatorial orbit around a Kerr black hole. We consider only conservative backreaction effects due to the mass of the compact object (m1), thus neglecting the effects of its spin s1 on its motion; i.e., we impose s1≪G m12/c and m1≪m2, where m2 is the mass parameter of the background Kerr spacetime. We encapsulate the correction to the spin precession in ψ , the ratio of the accumulated spin-precession angle to the total azimuthal angle over one radial orbit in the equatorial plane. Our formulation considers the gauge-invariant O (m1) part of the correction to ψ , denoted by Δ ψ , and is a generalization of the results of Akcay et al. [Classical Quantum Gravity 34, 084001 (2017), 10.1088/1361-6382/aa61d6] to Kerr spacetime. Additionally, we compute the zero-eccentricity limit of Δ ψ and show that this quantity differs from the circular orbit Δ ψcirc by a gauge-invariant quantity containing the gravitational self-force correction to general relativistic periapsis advance in Kerr spacetime. Our result for Δ ψ is expressed in a manner that readily accommodates numerical/analytical self-force computations, e.g., in the radiation gauge, and paves the way for the computation of a new eccentric-orbit Kerr gauge invariant beyond the generalized redshift.

  4. Astronomically forced paleoclimate change from middle Eocene to early Oligocene: continental conditions in central China compared with the global marine isotope record

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, C.; Hinnov, L. A.

    2010-12-01

    The early Eocene climatic optimum ended with a long interval of global cooling that began in the early Middle Eocene and ended at the Eocene-Oligocene transition. During this long-term cooling, a series of short-term warming reversals occurred in the marine realm. Here, we investigate corresponding continental climate conditions as revealed in the Qianjiang Formation of the Jianghan Basin in central China, which consists of more than 4000 m of saline lake sediments. The Qianjiang Formation includes, in its deepest sections, a halite-rich rhythmic sediment succession with dark mudstone, brownish-white siltstone and sandstone, and greyish-white halite. Alternating fresh water (humid/cool)—saline water (dry/hot) deposits reflect climate cycles driven by orbital forcing. High-resolution gamma ray (GR) logging from the basin center captures these pronounced lithological rhythms throughout the formation. Several halite-rich intervals are interpreted as short-term warming events within the middle Eocene to early Oligocene, and could be expressions of coeval warming events in the global marine oxygen isotope record, for example, the middle Eocene climate optimum (MECO) event around 41 Ma. The Eocene-Oligocene boundary is distinguished by a radical change from halite-rich to clastic sediments, indicating a dramatic climate change from warm to cool conditions. Power spectral analysis of the GR series indicates strong short (~100 kyr) eccentricity cycling during the warm/hot episodes. Amplitude modulation of the short eccentricity in the GR series occurs with a strong 405 kyr periodicity. This cycling is calibrated to the La2004 orbital eccentricity model. A climate reversal occurs at 36.5 Ma within the long-term marine cooling trend following MECO, which is reflected also in the Qianjiang GR series, with the latter indicating several brief warm/dry reversals within the trend. A ~2.6 Myr halite-rich warm interval occurs in the latest Eocene in the continental record; both

  5. Climate implications of including albedo effects in terrestrial carbon policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, A. D.; Collins, W.; Torn, M. S.; Calvin, K. V.

    2012-12-01

    Proposed strategies for managing terrestrial carbon in order to mitigate anthropogenic climate change, such as financial incentives for afforestation, soil carbon sequestration, or biofuel production, largely ignore the direct effects of land use change on climate via biophysical processes that alter surface energy and water budgets. Subsequent influences on temperature, hydrology, and atmospheric circulation at regional and global scales could potentially help or hinder climate stabilization efforts. Because these policies often rely on payments or credits expressed in units of CO2-equivalents, accounting for biophysical effects would require a metric for comparing the strength of biophysical climate perturbation from land use change to that of emitting CO2. One such candidate metric that has been suggested in the literature on land use impacts is radiative forcing, which underlies the global warming potential metric used to compare the climate effects of various greenhouse gases with one another. Expressing land use change in units of radiative forcing is possible because albedo change results in a net top-of-atmosphere radiative flux change. However, this approach has also been critiqued on theoretical grounds because not all climatic changes associated with land use change are principally radiative in nature, e.g. changes in hydrology or the vertical distribution of heat within the atmosphere, and because the spatial scale of land use change forcing differs from that of well-mixed greenhouse gases. To explore the potential magnitude of this discrepancy in the context of plausible scenarios of future land use change, we conduct three simulations with the Community Climate System Model 4 (CCSM4) utilizing a slab ocean model. Each simulation examines the effect of a stepwise change in forcing relative to a pre-industrial control simulation: 1) widespread conversion of forest land to crops resulting in approximately 1 W/m2 global-mean radiative forcing from albedo

  6. Influence of impeller and diffuser geometries on the lateral fluid forces of whirling centrifugal impeller

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ohashi, Hideo; Sakurai, Akira; Nishihama, Jiro

    1989-01-01

    Lateral fluid forces on two-dimensional centrifugal impellers, which whirl on a circular orbit in a vaneless diffuser, were reported. Experiments were further conducted for the cases in which a three-dimensional centrifugal impeller, a model of the boiler feed pump, whirls in vaneless and vaned diffusers. The influence of the clearance configuration between the casing and front shroud of the impeller was also investigated. The result indicated that the fluid dynamic interaction between the impeller and the guide vanes induces quite strong fluctuating fluid forces to the impeller, but nevertheless its influence on radial and tangential force components averaged over a whirling orbit is relatively small.

  7. Chemical and climatic drivers of radiative forcing due to changes in stratospheric and tropospheric ozone over the 21st century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Banerjee, Antara; Maycock, Amanda C.; Pyle, John A.

    2018-02-01

    The ozone radiative forcings (RFs) resulting from projected changes in climate, ozone-depleting substances (ODSs), non-methane ozone precursor emissions and methane between the years 2000 and 2100 are calculated using simulations from the UM-UKCA chemistry-climate model (UK Met Office's Unified Model containing the United Kingdom Chemistry and Aerosols sub-model). Projected measures to improve air-quality through reductions in non-methane tropospheric ozone precursor emissions present a co-benefit for climate, with a net global mean ozone RF of -0.09 W m-2. This is opposed by a positive ozone RF of 0.05 W m-2 due to future decreases in ODSs, which is driven by an increase in tropospheric ozone through stratosphere-to-troposphere transport of air containing higher ozone amounts. An increase in methane abundance by more than a factor of 2 (as projected by the RCP8.5 scenario) is found to drive an ozone RF of 0.18 W m-2, which would greatly outweigh the climate benefits of non-methane tropospheric ozone precursor reductions. A small fraction (˜ 15 %) of the ozone RF due to the projected increase in methane results from increases in stratospheric ozone. The sign of the ozone RF due to future changes in climate (including the radiative effects of greenhouse gases, sea surface temperatures and sea ice changes) is shown to be dependent on the greenhouse gas emissions pathway, with a positive RF (0.05 W m-2) for RCP4.5 and a negative RF (-0.07 W m-2) for the RCP8.5 scenario. This dependence arises mainly from differences in the contribution to RF from stratospheric ozone changes. Considering the increases in tropopause height under climate change causes only small differences (≤ |0.02| W m-2) for the stratospheric, tropospheric and whole-atmosphere RFs.

  8. Projected climate change futures for Southern Africa

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Tadross, M

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available of the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR) in South Africa. In these experiments, a variable-resolution atmospheric global circulation model, CCAM, was applied as a regional climate model (RCM) to simulate both present-day and future climate... climate projection Observed climate RCM Climate forcing Climate simulation Statistical downscaling Dynamical downscaling 22 | Second Edition There are four pathways – RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5. RCP 2.6 describes a scenario of very low...

  9. Can warming particles enter global climate discussions?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bond, Tami C

    2007-01-01

    'Soot' or 'black carbon', which comes from incomplete combustion, absorbs light and warms the atmosphere. Although there have been repeated suggestions that reduction of black carbon could be a viable part of decreasing global warming, it has not yet been considered when choosing actions to reduce climatic impact. In this paper, I examine four conceptual barriers to the consideration of aerosols in global agreements. I conclude that some of the major objections to considering aerosols under hemispheric or global agreements are illusory because: (1) a few major sources will be addressed by local regulations, but the remainder may not be addressed by traditional air quality management; (2) climate forcing by carbon particles is not limited to 'hot spots'-about 90% of it occurs at relatively low concentrations; (3) while aerosol science is complex, the most salient characteristics of aerosol behavior can be condensed into tractable metrics including, but not limited to, the global warming potential; (4) despite scientific uncertainties, reducing all aerosols from major sources of black carbon will reduce direct climate warming with a very high probability. This change in climate forcing accounts for at least 25% of the accompanying CO 2 forcing with significant probability (25% for modern diesel engines, 90% for superemitting diesels, and 55% for cooking with biofuels). Thus, this fraction of radiative forcing should not be ignored

  10. Climate for change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Newell, P.

    2000-01-01

    Climate for Change: Non-State Actors and the Global Politics of the Greenhouse provides a challenging explanation of the forces that have shaped the international global warming debate. Unlike existing books on the politics of climate change, this book concentrates on how non-stage actors, such as scientific, environmental and industry groups, as opposed to governmental organisations, affect political outcomes in global fora on climate change. It also provides insights in to the role of the media in influencing the agenda. The book draws on a range of analytical approaches to assess and explain the influence of these non-governmental organisations in the course of global climate change politics. The book will be of interest to all researchers and policy-makers associated with climate change, and will be used on university courses in international relations, politics and environmental studies. (Author)

  11. Status of Precise Orbit Determination for Jason-2 Using GPS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Melachroinos, S.; Lemoine, F. G.; Zelensky, N. P.; Rowlands, D. D.; Pavlis, D. E.

    2011-01-01

    The JASON-2 satellite, launched in June 2008, is the latest follow-on to the successful TOPEX/Poseidon (T/P) and JASON-I altimetry missions. JASON-2 is equipped with a TRSR Blackjack GPS dual-frequency receiver, a laser retroreflector array, and a DORIS receiver for precise orbit determination (POD). The most recent time series of orbits computed at NASA GSFC, based on SLR/DORIS data have been completed using both ITRF2005 and ITRF2008. These orbits have been shown to agree radially at 1 cm RMS for dynamic vs SLRlDORIS reduced-dynamic orbits and in comparison with orbits produced by other analysis centers (Lemoine et al., 2010; Zelensky et al., 2010; Cerri et al., 2010). We have recently upgraded the GEODYN software to implement model improvements for GPS processing. We describe the implementation of IGS standards to the Jason2 GEODYN GPS processing, and other dynamical and measurement model improvements. Our GPS-only JASON-2 orbit accuracy is assessed using a number of tests including analysis of independent SLR and altimeter crossover residuals, orbit overlap differences, and direct comparison to orbits generated at GSFC using SLR and DORIS tracking, and to orbits generated externally at other centers. Tests based on SLR and the altimeter crossover residuals provide the best performance indicator for independent validation of the NASAlGSFC GPS-only reduced dynamic orbits. For the ITRF2005 and ITRF2008 implementation of our GPS-only obits we are using the IGS05 and IGS08 standards. Reduced dynamic versus dynamic orbit differences are used to characterize the remaining force model error and TRF instability. We evaluate the GPS vs SLR & DORIS orbits produced using the GEODYN software and assess in particular their consistency radially and the stability of the altimeter satellite reference frame in the Z direction for both ITRF2005 and ITRF2008 as a proxy to assess the consistency of the reference frame for altimeter satellite POD.

  12. Climate change and climate policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alfsen, Knut H.; Kolshus, Hans H.; Torvanger, Asbjoern

    2000-08-01

    The climate issue is a great political and scientific challenge for several reasons: (1) There are many uncertain aspects of the climate problem, such as future emission of climate gases, the response of the climate system upon these gases, and the effects of climate changes. (2) It is probable, however, that anthropogenic emission of climate gases, deforestation etc. will cause noticeable climate changes in the future. This might be observed as increased frequency of extreme weather situations. This appears to be a greater threat than a gradual increase of temperature and precipitation. (3) Since the climate system is large and react only relatively slowly on changes in for instance the emission of climate gases, the climate problem can only be solved by means of long-term measures. (4) The climate changes may be irreversible. A rational short-term strategy is to ensure maximum flexibility, which can be done by ''slowing down'' (curtailing emissions) and by avoiding irreversible actions as much as possible. The long-term challenge is to develop an economically responsible alternative to the present fossil-based energy system that permits carbon-efficient technologies to compete on price with coal and unconventional oil and gas. Norway is in a special position by being a large exporter of fossil fuel and at the same time wanting to appear responsible in environmental matters. This combination may incur considerable expenses upon Norway and it is therefore important that environmental commitments like the Kyoto agreement can be honoured to the lowest possible cost. The costs can be minimized by: (1) minimizing the measure costs in Norway, (2) working to make the international quota price as low as possible, and (3) reducing the loss of petroleum income as much as possible. This report describes the earth's climate history, the forces behind climatic changes and what the prospects for the future look like. It also reviews what is being done to curtail the emission of

  13. Impact of Earth's orbit and freshwater fluxes on Holocene climate mean seasonal cycle and ENSO characteristics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Braconnot, P.; Zheng, W. [unite mixte CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Laboratoire des Sciences du climat et de l' Environnement, Gif-sur-Yvette Cedex (France); Luan, Y. [unite mixte CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Laboratoire des Sciences du climat et de l' Environnement, Gif-sur-Yvette Cedex (France); Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG), Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP), Beijing (China); Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing (China); Brewer, Simon [University of Wyoming, Department of Botany, Laramie, WY (United States)

    2012-03-15

    We use a state-of-the-art 3-dimensional coupled model to investigate the relative impact of long term variations in the Holocene insolation forcing and of a freshwater release in the North Atlantic. We show that insolation has a greater effect on seasonality and La Nina events and is the major driver of sea surface temperature changes. In contrast, the variations in precipitation reflect changes in El Nino events. The impact of ice-sheet melting may have offset the impact of insolation on El Nino Southern Oscillation variability at the beginning of the Holocene. These simulations provide a coherent framework to refine the interpretation of proxy data and show that changes in seasonality may bias the projection of relationships established between proxy indicators and climate variations in the east Pacific from present day records. (orig.)

  14. The Chew Bahir Drilling Project (HSPDP). Deciphering climate information from the Chew Bahir sediment cores: Towards a continuous half-million year climate record near the Omo - Turkana key palaeonanthropological Site

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foerster, Verena E.; Asrat, Asfawossen; Chapot, Melissa S.; Cohen, Andrew S.; Dean, Jonathan R.; Deino, Alan; Günter, Christina; Junginger, Annett; Lamb, Henry F.; Leng, Melanie J.; Roberts, Helen M.; Schaebitz, Frank; Trauth, Martin H.

    2017-04-01

    As a contribution towards an enhanced understanding of human-climate interactions, the Hominin Sites and Paleolakes Drilling Project (HSPDP) has successfully completed coring five dominantly lacustrine archives of climate change during the last 3.5 Ma in East Africa. All five sites in Ethiopia and Kenya are adjacent to key paleoanthropological research areas encompassing diverse milestones in human evolution, dispersal episodes, and technological innovation. The 280 m-long Chew Bahir sediment records, recovered from a tectonically-bound basin in the southern Ethiopian rift in late 2014, cover the past 550 ka of environmental history, a time period that includes the transition to the Middle Stone Age, and the origin and dispersal of modern Homo sapiens. Deciphering climate information from lake sediments is challenging, due to the complex relationship between climate parameters and sediment composition. We will present the first results in our efforts to develop a reliable climate-proxy tool box for Chew Bahir by deconvolving the relationship between sedimentological and geochemical sediment composition and strongly climate-controlled processes in the basin, such as incongruent weathering, transportation and authigenic mineral alteration. Combining our first results from the long cores with those from a pilot study of short cores taken in 2009/10 along a NW-SE transect of the basin, we have developed a hypothesis linking climate forcing and paleoenvironmental signal-formation processes in the basin. X-ray diffraction analysis of the first sample sets from the long Chew Bahir record reveals similar processes that have been recognized for the uppermost 20 m during the pilot-study of the project: the diagenetic illitization of smectites during episodes of higher alkalinity and salinity in the closed-basin lake induced by a drier climate. The precise time resolution, largely continuous record and (eventually) a detailed understanding of site specific proxy formation

  15. Sweden's third national communication on climate change. Under the United Nations framework convention on climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2001-01-01

    Sweden's national communication to the UN Convention on Climate Change describes everything about the emission and absorption of greenhouse gases, the motives and forces behind emissions, and official Swedish climate policies. Every five years, Sweden submits a communication on practical climate efforts in Sweden to the UN Convention on Climate Change. The Swedish Environmental Protection Board has coordinated the work of producing the basic documentation for the communication, which also describes the measures already taken and those planned for the future. In addition, scenarios have been adopted for developments in Swedish greenhouse gas emissions, Sweden's vulnerability and Swedish research into the climate and climate change

  16. ON THE ORBIT OF EXOPLANET WASP-12b

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Campo, Christopher J.; Harrington, Joseph; Hardy, Ryan A.; Stevenson, Kevin B.; Nymeyer, Sarah; Lust, Nate B.; Blecic, Jasmina; Britt, Christopher B. T.; Bowman, William C.; Ragozzine, Darin; Anderson, David R.; Hellier, Coel; Maxted, Pierre F. L.; Collier-Cameron, Andrew; Wheatley, Peter J.; Loredo, Thomas J.; Deming, Drake; Hebb, Leslie; Pollaco, Don; West, Richard G.

    2011-01-01

    We observed two secondary eclipses of the exoplanet WASP-12b using the Infrared Array Camera on the Spitzer Space Telescope. The close proximity of WASP-12b to its G-type star results in extreme tidal forces capable of inducing apsidal precession with a period as short as a few decades. This precession would be measurable if the orbit had a significant eccentricity, leading to an estimate of the tidal Love number and an assessment of the degree of central concentration in the planetary interior. An initial ground-based secondary-eclipse phase reported by Lopez-Morales et al. (0.510 ± 0.002) implied eccentricity at the 4.5σ level. The spectroscopic orbit of Hebb et al. has eccentricity 0.049 ± 0.015, a 3σ result, implying an eclipse phase of 0.509 ± 0.007. However, there is a well-documented tendency of spectroscopic data to overestimate small eccentricities. Our eclipse phases are 0.5010 ± 0.0006 (3.6 and 5.8 μm) and 0.5006 ± 0.0007 (4.5 and 8.0 μm). An unlikely orbital precession scenario invoking an alignment of the orbit during the Spitzer observations could have explained this apparent discrepancy, but the final eclipse phase of Lopez-Morales et al. (0.510 ± +0.007 -0.006 ) is consistent with a circular orbit at better than 2σ. An orbit fit to all the available transit, eclipse, and radial-velocity data indicates precession at <1σ; a non-precessing solution fits better. We also comment on analysis and reporting for Spitzer exoplanet data in light of recent re-analyses.

  17. The neurobiology of climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Donnell, Sean

    2018-01-06

    Directional climate change (global warming) is causing rapid alterations in animals' environments. Because the nervous system is at the forefront of animals' interactions with the environment, the neurobiological implications of climate change are central to understanding how individuals, and ultimately populations, will respond to global warming. Evidence is accumulating for individual level, mechanistic effects of climate change on nervous system development and performance. Climate change can also alter sensory stimuli, changing the effectiveness of sensory and cognitive systems for achieving biological fitness. At the population level, natural selection forces stemming from directional climate change may drive rapid evolutionary change in nervous system structure and function.

  18. The neurobiology of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Donnell, Sean

    2018-02-01

    Directional climate change (global warming) is causing rapid alterations in animals' environments. Because the nervous system is at the forefront of animals' interactions with the environment, the neurobiological implications of climate change are central to understanding how individuals, and ultimately populations, will respond to global warming. Evidence is accumulating for individual level, mechanistic effects of climate change on nervous system development and performance. Climate change can also alter sensory stimuli, changing the effectiveness of sensory and cognitive systems for achieving biological fitness. At the population level, natural selection forces stemming from directional climate change may drive rapid evolutionary change in nervous system structure and function.

  19. Potential forcing of CO{sub 2}, technology and climate changes in maize (Zea mays) and bean (Phaseolus vulgaris) yield in southeast Brazil

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Costa, L C; Justino, F; Oliveira, L J C; Sediyama, G C; Lemos, C F [Department of Agricultural Engineering, Federal University of Vicosa, PH Rolfs S/N, Vicosa, MG, 36570 000 (Brazil); Ferreira, W P M [Embrapa Milho e Sorgo, Rodovia MG 424, km 45, Caixa Postal 285, CEP 35701-970 Sete Lagoas, MG (Brazil)], E-mail: fjustino@ufv.br

    2009-01-15

    Based upon sensitivity experiments, this study aims to investigate the impact of increased atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentration, climate changes, and ongoing technological advancements on bean (Phaseolus vulgaris) and maize (Zea mays) yield. This investigation assumes that the atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentration evolves according to the A2 scenario. For these analyses we have used climate data as projected by climate simulations conducted with the HadCM3 climate model for both present day and greenhouse warming conditions. The results demonstrated that warming conditions associated with increased greenhouse gases as delivered by the HadCM3 model lead to reductions in the potential productivity of maize and beans for the years 2050 and 2080 by up to 30%. This thermal response is, however, damped by the highly efficient CO{sub 2} fertilization effect which is expected to increase bean productivity as compared to present day conditions. A similar investigation for maize yield revealed a different picture. It has been found that the CO{sub 2} fertilization feedback is much weaker and cannot cancel out the thermal effect. We have found, therefore, that climate changes as simulated to occur in the future are not favorable for increasing the maize yield in southeast Brazil. By the inclusion of the third forcing evaluated, representing technological advancements, it is demonstrated that improvements in the crop system reduce the negative effect associated with warmer climate conditions for both crops. We conclude that appropriate soil and technological management as well as genetic improvements may very likely induce an increase in bean and maize yield despite the unfavorable future climate conditions.

  20. The last interglacial climate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Rasmus A.; Langen, Peter L.; Vinther, Bo M.

    2017-01-01

    The last interglacial climate was influenced by substantial changes in the annual insolation cycle that led to a warmer climate state with pronounced high northern latitude warming. We analyze the impact of the insolation changes 125,000 years before present using an equilibrium snapshot simulation...... with the EC-Earth coupled climate model at high spatial resolution. Using additional atmosphere-only simulations, we separate the direct impact from the changed insolation from the secondary contribution from changed sea surface conditions. These simulations are forced with a combination of last interglacial...

  1. Orbit Propagation and Determination of Low Earth Orbit Satellites

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ho-Nien Shou

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper represents orbit propagation and determination of low Earth orbit (LEO satellites. Satellite global positioning system (GPS configured receiver provides position and velocity measures by navigating filter to get the coordinates of the orbit propagation (OP. The main contradictions in real-time orbit which is determined by the problem are orbit positioning accuracy and the amount of calculating two indicators. This paper is dedicated to solving the problem of tradeoffs. To plan to use a nonlinear filtering method for immediate orbit tasks requires more precise satellite orbit state parameters in a short time. Although the traditional extended Kalman filter (EKF method is widely used, its linear approximation of the drawbacks in dealing with nonlinear problems was especially evident, without compromising Kalman filter (unscented Kalman Filter, UKF. As a new nonlinear estimation method, it is measured at the estimated measurements on more and more applications. This paper will be the first study on UKF microsatellites in LEO orbit in real time, trying to explore the real-time precision orbit determination techniques. Through the preliminary simulation results, they show that, based on orbit mission requirements and conditions using UKF, they can satisfy the positioning accuracy and compute two indicators.

  2. Rehabilitation of orbital cavity after orbital exenteration using polymethyl methacrylate orbital prosthesis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sumeet Jain

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Squamous cell carcinoma of the eyelid is the second most common malignant neoplasm of the eye with the incidence of 0.09 and 2.42 cases/100 000 people. Orbital invasion is a rare complication but, if recognized early, can be treated effectively with exenteration. Although with advancements in technology such as computer-aided design and computer-aided manufacturing, material science, and retentive methods like implants, orbital prosthesis with stock ocular prosthesis made of methyl methacrylate retained by anatomic undercuts is quiet effective and should not be overlooked and forgotten. This clinical report describes prosthetic rehabilitation of two male patients with polymethyl methacrylate resin orbital prosthesis after orbital exenteration, for squamous cell carcinoma of the upper eyelid. The orbital prosthesis was sufficiently retained by hard and soft tissue undercuts without any complications. The patients using the prosthesis are quite satisfied with the cosmetic results and felt comfortable attending the social events.

  3. Linearity of amplitude and phase in tapping-mode atomic force microscopy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Salapaka, M.V.; Chen, D.J.; Cleveland, J.P.

    2000-01-01

    In this article tapping-mode atomic force microscope dynamics is studied. The existence of a periodic orbit at the forcing frequency is shown under unrestrictive conditions. The dynamics is further analyzed using the impact model for the tip-sample interaction and a spring-mass-damper model of the cantilever. Stability of the periodic orbit is established. Closed-form expressions for various variables important in tapping-mode imaging are obtained. The linear relationship of the amplitude and the sine of the phase of the first harmonic of the periodic orbit with respect to cantilever-sample offset is shown. The study reinforces gentleness of the tapping-mode on the sample. Experimental results are in excellent qualitative agreement with the theoretical predictions. The linear relationship of the sine of the phase and the amplitude can be used to infer sample properties. The comparison between the theory and the experiments indicates essential features that are needed in a more refined model

  4. ORBIT: A CODE FOR COLLECTIVE BEAM DYNAMICS IN HIGH INTENSITY RINGS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    HOLMES, J.A.; DANILOV, V.; GALAMBOS, J.; SHISHLO, A.; COUSINEAU, S.; CHOU, W.; MICHELOTTI, L.; OSTIGUY, J.F.; WEI, J.

    2002-01-01

    We are developing a computer code, ORBIT, specifically for beam dynamics calculations in high-intensity rings. Our approach allows detailed simulation of realistic accelerator problems. ORBIT is a particle-in-cell tracking code that transports bunches of interacting particles through a series of nodes representing elements, effects, or diagnostics that occur in the accelerator lattice. At present, ORBIT contains detailed models for strip-foil injection, including painting and foil scattering; rf focusing and acceleration; transport through various magnetic elements; longitudinal and transverse impedances; longitudinal, transverse, and three-dimensional space charge forces; collimation and limiting apertures; and the calculation of many useful diagnostic quantities. ORBIT is an object-oriented code, written in C++ and utilizing a scripting interface for the convenience of the user. Ongoing improvements include the addition of a library of accelerator maps, BEAMLINE/MXYZPTLK, the introduction of a treatment of magnet errors and fringe fields; the conversion of the scripting interface to the standard scripting language, Python; and the parallelization of the computations using MPI. The ORBIT code is an open source, powerful, and convenient tool for studying beam dynamics in high-intensity rings

  5. ORBIT: A Code for Collective Beam Dynamics in High-Intensity Rings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holmes, J. A.; Danilov, V.; Galambos, J.; Shishlo, A.; Cousineau, S.; Chou, W.; Michelotti, L.; Ostiguy, J.-F.; Wei, J.

    2002-12-01

    We are developing a computer code, ORBIT, specifically for beam dynamics calculations in high-intensity rings. Our approach allows detailed simulation of realistic accelerator problems. ORBIT is a particle-in-cell tracking code that transports bunches of interacting particles through a series of nodes representing elements, effects, or diagnostics that occur in the accelerator lattice. At present, ORBIT contains detailed models for strip-foil injection, including painting and foil scattering; rf focusing and acceleration; transport through various magnetic elements; longitudinal and transverse impedances; longitudinal, transverse, and three-dimensional space charge forces; collimation and limiting apertures; and the calculation of many useful diagnostic quantities. ORBIT is an object-oriented code, written in C++ and utilizing a scripting interface for the convenience of the user. Ongoing improvements include the addition of a library of accelerator maps, BEAMLINE/MXYZPTLK; the introduction of a treatment of magnet errors and fringe fields; the conversion of the scripting interface to the standard scripting language, Python; and the parallelization of the computations using MPI. The ORBIT code is an open source, powerful, and convenient tool for studying beam dynamics in high-intensity rings.

  6. ORBIT: A code for collective beam dynamics in high-intensity rings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Holmes, J.A.; Danilov, V.; Galambos, J.; Shishlo, A.; Cousineau, S.; Chou, W.; Michelotti, L.; Ostiguy, J.-F.; Wei, J.

    2002-01-01

    We are developing a computer code, ORBIT, specifically for beam dynamics calculations in high-intensity rings. Our approach allows detailed simulation of realistic accelerator problems. ORBIT is a particle-in-cell tracking code that transports bunches of interacting particles through a series of nodes representing elements, effects, or diagnostics that occur in the accelerator lattice. At present, ORBIT contains detailed models for strip-foil injection, including painting and foil scattering; rf focusing and acceleration; transport through various magnetic elements; longitudinal and transverse impedances; longitudinal, transverse, and three-dimensional space charge forces; collimation and limiting apertures; and the calculation of many useful diagnostic quantities. ORBIT is an object-oriented code, written in C++ and utilizing a scripting interface for the convenience of the user. Ongoing improvements include the addition of a library of accelerator maps, BEAMLINE/MXYZPTLK; the introduction of a treatment of magnet errors and fringe fields; the conversion of the scripting interface to the standard scripting language, Python; and the parallelization of the computations using MPI. The ORBIT code is an open source, powerful, and convenient tool for studying beam dynamics in high-intensity rings

  7. Orbitally shaken shallow fluid layers. I. Regime classification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alpresa, Paola; Sherwin, Spencer; Weinberg, Peter; van Reeuwijk, Maarten

    2018-03-01

    Orbital shakers are simple devices that provide mixing, aeration, and shear stress at multiple scales and high throughput. For this reason, they are extensively used in a wide range of applications from protein production to bacterial biofilms and endothelial cell experiments. This study focuses on the behaviour of orbitally shaken shallow fluid layers in cylindrical containers. In order to investigate the behaviour over a wide range of different conditions, a significant number of numerical simulations are carried out under different configuration parameters. We demonstrate that potential theory—despite the relatively low Reynolds number of the system—describes the free-surface amplitude well and the velocity field reasonably well, except when the forcing frequency is close to a natural frequency and resonance occurs. By classifying the simulations into non-breaking, breaking, and breaking with part of the bottom uncovered, it is shown that the onset of wave breaking is well described by Δh/(2R) = 0.7Γ, where Δh is the free-surface amplitude, R is the container radius, and Γ is the container aspect ratio; Δh can be well approximated using the potential theory. This result is in agreement with standard wave breaking theories although the significant inertial forcing causes wave breaking at lower amplitudes.

  8. PCVs Estimation and their Impacts on Precise Orbit Determination of LEOs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chunmei, Z.; WANG, X.

    2017-12-01

    In the last decade the precise orbit determination (POD) based on GNSS, such as GPS, has been considered as one of the efficient methods to derive orbits of Low Earth Orbiters (LEOs) that demand accuracy requirements. The Earth gravity field recovery and its related researches require precise dynamic orbits of LEOs. With the improvements of GNSS satellites' orbit and clock accuracy, the algorithm optimization and the refinement of perturbation force models, the antenna phase-center variations (PCVs) of space-borne GNSS receiver have become an increasingly important factor that affects POD accuracy. A series of LEOs such as HY-2, ZY-3 and FY-3 with homebred space-borne GNSS receivers have been launched in the past several years in China. Some of these LEOs load dual-mode GNSS receivers of GPS and BDS signals. The reliable performance of these space-borne receivers has been establishing an important foundation for the future launches of China gravity satellites. Therefore, we first evaluate the data quality of on-board GNSS measurement by examining integrity, multipath error, cycle slip ratio and other quality indices. Then we determine the orbits of several LEOs at different altitudes by the reduced dynamic orbit determination method. The corresponding ionosphere-free carrier phase post-fit residual time series are obtained. And then we establish the PCVs model by the ionosphere-free residual approach and analyze the effects of antenna phase-center variation on orbits. It is shown that orbit accuracy of LEO satellites is greatly improved after in-flight PCV calibration. Finally, focus on the dual-mode receiver of FY-3 satellite we analyze the quality of onboard BDS data and then evaluate the accuracy of the FY-3 orbit determined using only BDS measurement onboard. The accuracy of LEO satellites orbit based on BDS would be well improved with the global completion of BDS by 2020.

  9. Nonlinearities, scale-dependence, and individualism of boreal forest trees to climate forcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolken, J. M.; Mann, D. H.; Grant, T. A., III; Lloyd, A. H.; Hollingsworth, T. N.

    2013-12-01

    Our understanding of the climate-growth relationships of trees are complicated by the nonlinearity and variability of these responses through space and time. Furthermore, trees growing at the same site may exhibit opposing growth responses to climate, a phenomenon termed growth divergence. To date the majority of dendrochronological studies in Interior Alaska have involved white spruce growing at treeline, even though black spruce is the most abundant tree species. Although changing climate-growth relationships have been observed in black spruce, there is little known about the multivariate responses of individual trees to temperature and precipitation and whether or not black spruce exhibits growth divergences similar to those documented for white spruce. To evaluate the occurrence of growth divergences in black spruce, we collected cores from trees growing on a steep, north-facing toposequence having a gradient in environmental parameters. Our overall goal was to assess how the climate-growth relationships of black spruce change over space and time. Specifically, we evaluated how topography influences the climate-growth relationships of black spruce and if the growth responses to climate are homogeneous. At the site-level most trees responded negatively to temperature and positively to precipitation, while at the tree-level black spruce exhibited heterogenous growth responses to climate that varied in both space (i.e., between sites) and time (i.e., seasonally and annually). There was a dominant response-type at each site, but there was also considerable variability in the proportion of trees exhibiting each response-type combination. Even in a climatically extreme setting like Alaska's boreal forest, tree responses to climate variability are spatially and temporally complex, as well as highly nonlinear.

  10. ORBITAL INJURIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrej Kansky

    2002-12-01

    Full Text Available Background. Orbit is involved in 40% of all facial fractures. There is considerable variety in severity, ranging from simple nondisplaced to complex comminuted fractures. Complex comminuted fractures (up to 20% are responsible for the majority of complications and unfavorable results. Orbital fractures are classified as internal orbital fractures, zygomatico-orbital fractures, naso-orbito-ethmoidal fractures and combined fractures. The ophtalmic sequelae of midfacial fractures are usually edema and ecchymosis of the soft tissues, subconjuctival hemorrhage, diplopia, iritis, retinal edema, ptosis, enophthalmos, ocular muscle paresis, mechanical restriction of ocular movement and nasolacrimal disturbances. More severe injuries such as optic nerve trauma and retinal detachments have also been reported. Within the wide range of orbital fractures small group of complex fractures causes most of the sequelae. Therefore identification of severe injuries and adequate treatment is of major importance. The introduction of craniofacial techniques made possible a wide exposure even of large orbital wall defects and their reconstruction by bone grafts. In spite of significant progress, repair of complex orbital wall defects remains a problem even for the experienced surgeons.Results. In 1999 121 facial injuries were treated at our department (Clinical Centre Ljubljana Dept. Of Maxillofacial and Oral Surgery. Orbit was involved in 65% of cases. Isolated inner orbital fractures presented 4% of all fractures. 17 (14% complex cases were treated, 5 of them being NOE, 5 orbital (frame and inner walls, 3 zygomatico-orbital, 2 FNO and 2 maxillo-orbital fractures.Conclusions. Final result of the surgical treatment depends on severity of maxillofacial trauma. Complex comminuted fractures are responsable for most of the unfavorable results and ocular function is often permanently damaged (up to 75% in these fractures.

  11. Climate, atmosphere, and volatile inventory evolution: polar processes, climate records, volatile inventories

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pollack, J.B.

    1988-01-01

    Climate change on Mars was driven by long term changes in the solar luminosity, variations in the partitioning of volatiles between the atmosphere and near-surface reservoirs, and astronomical variations in axial and orbital properties. There are important parallels between these drives for Mars and comparable ones for Earth. In the early history of the solar system, the Sun's luminosity was 25 to 30 percent lower than its current value. It is suggested that an early benign climate on Earth was due to the presence of much more carbon dioxide in its atmosphere at these early times than currently resides there. Such a partitioning of carbon dioxide, at the expense of the carbonate rock reservoir, may have resulted from a more vigorous tectonic and volcanic style at early times. Such a line of reasoning may imply that much more carbon dioxide was present in the Martian atmosphere during the planet's early history than resides there today. It is now widely recognized that astronomical variations of the Earth's axial and orbital characteristics have played a dominant role in causing the succession of glacial and interglacial periods characterizing the last several million years. The magnitude of the axial and eccentricity variations are much larger for Mars than for Earth. Such changes on Mars could result in sizeable variations in atmospheric pressure, dust storm activity, and the stability of perennial carbon dioxide and water ice polar caps. These quasi-periodic climate changes occur on periods of 100,000 to 1,000,000 years and may be recorded in the sedimentary layers of the polar layered terrain

  12. Implementation of National Space Policy on US Air Force End of Life Operations and Orbital Debris Mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-06-01

    Space Development and Test Directorate, Kirtland AFB, NM, 87117 Recent changes to US space policy regarding the execution of satellite End of Life ( EOL ...procedures have been driven by the rising significance of the orbital debris problem in Low Earth Orbit (LEO). Therefore current EOL plans are...considerations for writing operational EOL plans, with special applicability to military missions and focus on LEO satellites that are unable to relocate

  13. Orbital

    OpenAIRE

    Yourshaw, Matthew Stephen

    2017-01-01

    Orbital is a virtual reality gaming experience designed to explore the use of traditional narrative structure to enhance immersion in virtual reality. The story structure of Orbital was developed based on the developmental steps of 'The Hero's Journey,' a narrative pattern identified by Joseph Campbell. Using this standard narrative pattern, Orbital is capable of immersing the player quickly and completely for the entirety of play time. MFA

  14. Climate and Life: A Human Retrospective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    deMenocal, P. B.

    2014-12-01

    A renaissance scientist, Cesare Emiliani was also interested in climate change and its influence on human origins, ancient cultures, and our future. Climate shapes life across a range of time and space scales - seasons pace the cycle of death and renewal, and the diversity of all life is bounded by latitude. Each of the "big five" mass extinctions of the Phanerozoic is linked to environmental crisis. Has climate change also shaped us? Analytical advances, new sediment archives, and heroic international collaborations have brought new light to this question. Gone is the dated view of our ancestors emerging from some ancient dark forest to assert dominion over the grassy plains. In its place is new evidence for rapid and large orbital-scale climate cycles that shifted, stepwise after 2.8 and then again after 1.8 million years ago to establish the African savannah we know today. These climate events are coincident with clusters of hominin speciation, extinction, and behavioral innovation milestones that came to define us as human. The African Humid Period is one of the best and oldest examples of human cultural responses to climate change. Between 15,000-5,000 years ago the Saharan desert supported grassy, wooded plains, large lakes, and clusters of human settlements due to orbital increases in monsoonal rainfall. While there is an ongoing debate whether the end of this wet phase was fast (centuries) or slow (millennia), the rich archeological record shows that this region was depopulated and, within centuries, the first settlements appear along the Nile River near 5 ka BP. Many "firsts" are associated with these predynastic cultures of the Naqada III Period including the first named kings, pyramids, and hieroglyphs, resulting in political unification and Dynastic rule along the Nile. As these diverse lines of evidence come together, it appears as if an answer to the age-old question "How did I get here?" is no longer beyond our reach. Climate has played an important

  15. Orbit Functions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anatoliy Klimyk

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available In the paper, properties of orbit functions are reviewed and further developed. Orbit functions on the Euclidean space E_n are symmetrized exponential functions. The symmetrization is fulfilled by a Weyl group corresponding to a Coxeter-Dynkin diagram. Properties of such functions will be described. An orbit function is the contribution to an irreducible character of a compact semisimple Lie group G of rank n from one of its Weyl group orbits. It is shown that values of orbit functions are repeated on copies of the fundamental domain F of the affine Weyl group (determined by the initial Weyl group in the entire Euclidean space E_n. Orbit functions are solutions of the corresponding Laplace equation in E_n, satisfying the Neumann condition on the boundary of F. Orbit functions determine a symmetrized Fourier transform and a transform on a finite set of points.

  16. Novel applications of the temporal kernel method: Historical and future radiative forcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Portmann, R. W.; Larson, E.; Solomon, S.; Murphy, D. M.

    2017-12-01

    We present a new estimate of the historical radiative forcing derived from the observed global mean surface temperature and a model derived kernel function. Current estimates of historical radiative forcing are usually derived from climate models. Despite large variability in these models, the multi-model mean tends to do a reasonable job of representing the Earth system and climate. One method of diagnosing the transient radiative forcing in these models requires model output of top of the atmosphere radiative imbalance and global mean temperature anomaly. It is difficult to apply this method to historical observations due to the lack of TOA radiative measurements before CERES. We apply the temporal kernel method (TKM) of calculating radiative forcing to the historical global mean temperature anomaly. This novel approach is compared against the current regression based methods using model outputs and shown to produce consistent forcing estimates giving confidence in the forcing derived from the historical temperature record. The derived TKM radiative forcing provides an estimate of the forcing time series that the average climate model needs to produce the observed temperature record. This forcing time series is found to be in good overall agreement with previous estimates but includes significant differences that will be discussed. The historical anthropogenic aerosol forcing is estimated as a residual from the TKM and found to be consistent with earlier moderate forcing estimates. In addition, this method is applied to future temperature projections to estimate the radiative forcing required to achieve those temperature goals, such as those set in the Paris agreement.

  17. Climate Forcing of Ripple Migration and Crest Alignment in the Last 400 kyr in Meridiani Planum, Mars

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fenton, Lori K.; Carson, Helen C.; Michaels, Timothy I.

    2018-04-01

    The plains ripples of Meridiani Planum are the first paleo-aeolian bedforms on Mars to have had their last migration episode constrained in time (to 50-200 ka). Here we test how variations in orbital configuration, air pressure, and atmospheric dust loading over the past 400 kyr affect bedform mobility and crest alignment. Using the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Ames Mars Global Climate Model, we ran a series of sensitivity tests under a number of different conditions, seeking changes in wind patterns relative to those modeled for present-day conditions. Results indicate that enhanced sand drift potential in Meridiani Planum correlates with (1) high axial obliquity, (2) a longitude of perihelion (Lp) near southern summer solstice, and (3) a greater air pressure. The last pulse of westward plains ripple migration likely occurred during the most recent obliquity (relative) maximum, from 111 to 86 ka. At Lp coinciding with southern summer solstice, the Mars Global Climate Model produced a westward resultant drift direction, consistent with the observed north-south plains ripple crest alignment. However, smaller superposed ripples, aligned NNE-SSW, are consistent with a strengthened northern summer Hadley return flow, occurring when Lp coincided with northern summer solstice. The superposed NNE-SSW ripples likely formed as the axial obliquity decreased during the last relative maximum and Lp swung toward northern summer, from 86 to 72 ka. The timeline of bedform activity supports the proposed sequence of CO2 sequestration in the south polar residual cap over the past 400 kyr.

  18. Climate bifurcation during the last deglaciation?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lenton, T.M.; Livina, V.N.; Dakos, V.; Scheffer, M.

    2012-01-01

    There were two abrupt warming events during the last deglaciation, at the start of the Bolling-Allerod and at the end of the Younger Dryas, but their underlying dynamics are unclear. Some abrupt climate changes may involve gradual forcing past a bifurcation point, in which a prevailing climate state

  19. Orbital Dynamics of a Simple Solar Photon Thruster

    OpenAIRE

    Guerman, Anna D.; Smirnov, Georgi V.; Pereira, Maria Cecilia

    2009-01-01

    We study orbital dynamics of a compound solar sail, namely, a Simple Solar Photon Thruster and compare its behavior to that of a common version of sailcraft. To perform this analysis, development of a mathematical model for force created by light reflection on all sailcraft elements is essential. We deduce the equations of sailcraft's motion and compare performance of two schemes of solar propulsion for two test time-optimal control problems of trajectory transfer.

  20. KN phase shifts in a model with a spin-orbit interaction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lemaire, S.; Labarsouque, J.; Silvestre-Brac, B.

    2001-01-01

    The I=1 and I=0 kaon-nucleon s, p, d, f, g-waves phase shifts have been calculated in a non relativistic quark potential model using the resonating group method (RGM). The interquark potential includes gluon exchanges with a spin-orbit interaction. This force was determined to reproduce as well as possible the meson and baryon spectra. The same force is employed for the cluster and intercluster dynamics and the relative KN wave function is calculated without any approximation. While some channels are correctly described, the theory is still unable to explain others

  1. Responding to the Consequences of Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hildebrand, Peter H.

    2011-01-01

    The talk addresses the scientific consensus concerning climate change, and outlines the many paths that are open to mitigate climate change and its effects on human activities. Diverse aspects of the changing water cycle on Earth are used to illustrate the reality climate change. These include melting snowpack, glaciers, and sea ice; changes in runoff; rising sea level; moving ecosystems, an more. Human forcing of climate change is then explained, including: greenhouse gasses, atmospheric aerosols, and changes in land use. Natural forcing effects are briefly discussed, including volcanoes and changes in the solar cycle. Returning to Earth's water cycle, the effects of climate-induced changes in water resources is presented. Examples include wildfires, floods and droughts, changes in the production and availability of food, and human social reactions to these effects. The lk then passes to a discussion of common human reactions to these forecasts of climate change effects, with a summary of recent research on the subject, plus several recent historical examples of large-scale changes in human behavior that affect the climate and ecosystems. Finally, in the face for needed action on climate, the many options for mitigation of climate change and adaptation to its effects are presented, with examples of the ability to take affordable, and profitable action at most all levels, from the local, through national.

  2. Holocene climate change and the evidence for solar and other forcings

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Beer, J.; van Geel, B.; Battarbee, R.W.; Binney, H.A.

    2008-01-01

    Future climate change may have considerable effects on the hydrologic cycle and temperature, with significant consequences for sea level, food production, world economy, health, and biodiversity. How and why does the natural climate system vary on decadal to millennial time-scales? Do we

  3. Climate-mediated changes in marine ecosystem regulation during El Niño

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lindegren, Martin; Checkley, David M.; Koslow, J. Anthony

    2017-01-01

    concentrations and primary production). The shifts in ecosystem regulation are caused by changes in ocean-atmosphere forcing and triggered by highly variable climate conditions associated with El Niño. Furthermore, we show that biota respond differently to major El Niño events during positive or negative phases......, or whether the relative importance of bottom-up and top-down forcing may shift in response to climate change. In this study, we investigate the effects and relative importance of bottom-up, top-down and physical forcing during changing climate conditions on ecosystem regulation in the Southern California...

  4. The long view: Causes of climate change over the instrumental period

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hegerl, G. C.; Schurer, A. P.; Polson, D.; Iles, C. E.; Bronnimann, S.

    2016-12-01

    The period of instrumentally recorded data has seen remarkable changes in climate, with periods of rapid warming, and periods of stagnation or cooling. A recent analysis of the observed temperature change from the instrumental record confirms that most of the warming recorded since the middle of the 20rst century has been caused by human influences, but shows large uncertainty in separating greenhouse gas from aerosol response if accounting for model uncertainty. The contribution by natural forcing and internal variability to the recent warming is estimated to be small, but becomes more important when analysing climate change over earlier or shorter time periods. For example, the enigmatic early 20th century warming was a period of strong climate anomalies, including the US dustbowl drought and exceptional heat waves, and pronounced Arctic warming. Attribution results suggests that about half of the global warming 1901-1950 was forced by greenhouse gases increases, with an anomalously strong contribution by climate variability, and contributions by natural forcing. Long term variations in circulation are important for some regional climate anomalies. Precipitation is important for impacts of climate change and precipitation changes are uncertain in models. Analysis of the instrumental record suggests a human influence on mean and heavy precipitation, and supports climate model estimates of the spatial pattern of precipitation sensitivity to warming. Broadly, and particularly over ocean, wet regions are getting wetter and dry regions are getting drier. In conclusion, the historical record provides evidence for a strong response to external forcings, supports climate models, and raises questions about multi-decadal variability.

  5. Cosmic Rays and Climate

    CERN Document Server

    Kirkby, Jasper

    2007-01-01

    Among the most puzzling questions in climate change is that of solar-climate variability, which has attracted the attention of scientists for more than two centuries. Until recently, even the existence of solar-climate variability has been controversial—perhaps because the observations had largely involved correlations between climate and the sunspot cycle that had persisted for only a few decades. Over the last few years, however, diverse reconstructions of past climate change have revealed clear associations with cosmic ray variations recorded in cosmogenic isotope archives, providing persuasive evidence for solar or cosmic ray forcing of the climate. However, despite the increasing evidence of its importance, solar-climate variability is likely to remain controversial until a physical mechanism is established. Although this remains a mystery, observations suggest that cloud cover may be influenced by cosmic rays, which are modulated by the solar wind and, on longer time scales, by the geomagnetic fiel...

  6. Does the Bush Administration's climate policy mean climate protection?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blanchard, Odile; Perkaus, James F.

    2004-01-01

    The paper analyzes the two major components of the Bush Administration's climate policy, namely an emission intensity target and a technology strategy. The question is whether those components will generate net emission reductions that will contribute to the stabilization of the greenhouse gas concentration at a safe level in the long run. It comes out that the Bush Administration climate policy does not guarantee any meaningful contribution to climate protection. The lenient emission intensity target set by the Administration will most likely allow near term emissions to grow. In the long run, the Bush Administration places a big bet on future climate-friendly technological breakthroughs to cost-effectively compensate for the current and near term net emission increases. But the outcomes of those technological developments are uncertain in terms of emission reduction potential, cost, and timing. The way towards enhanced climate protection will most likely not come from the policies of the current Administration, but rather from the growing concern about the climate issue in Congress and at the state, corporate and civil society levels. These combined forces may raise the playing field at the federal level in the near future

  7. Effects of tensor forces in nuclei

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tanihata, Isao

    2013-01-01

    Recent studies of nuclei far from the stability line have revealed drastic changes in nuclear orbitals and reported the appearance of new magic numbers and the disappearance of magic numbers observed at the stability line. One of the important reasons for such changes is considered to be because of the effect of tensor forces on nuclear structure. Although the role of tensor forces in binding very light nuclei such as deuterons and 4 He has been known, direct experimental evidence for the effect on nuclear structure is scarce. In this paper, I review known effects of tensor forces in nuclei and then discuss the recently raised question of s–p wave mixing in a halo nucleus of 11 Li. Following these reviews, the development of a new experiment to see the high-momentum components due to the tensor forces is discussed and some of the new data are presented. (paper)

  8. Observation of helium flow induced beam orbit oscillations at RHIC

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Montag, C.; Bonati, R.; Brennan, J.M.; Butler, J.; Cameron, P.; Ganetis, G.; He, P.; Hirzel, W.; Jia, L.X.; Koello, P.; Louie, W.; McIntyre, G.; Nicoletti, A.; Rank, J.; Roser, T.; Satogata, T.; Schmalzle, J.; Sidi-Yekhlef, A.; Sondericker, J.; Tallerico, T.

    2006-01-01

    Horizontal beam orbit jitter at frequencies around 10 Hz has been observed at RHIC for several years. The distinct frequencies of this jitter have been found at superconducting low-beta quadrupole triplet magnets around the ring, where they coincide with mechanical vibration modes of the cold masses. Recently, we have identified liquid helium flow as the driving force of these oscillations

  9. LightForce Photon-Pressure Collision Avoidance: Updated Efficiency Analysis Utilizing a Highly Parallel Simulation Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stupl, Jan; Faber, Nicolas; Foster, Cyrus; Yang, Fan Yang; Nelson, Bron; Aziz, Jonathan; Nuttall, Andrew; Henze, Chris; Levit, Creon

    2014-01-01

    This paper provides an updated efficiency analysis of the LightForce space debris collision avoidance scheme. LightForce aims to prevent collisions on warning by utilizing photon pressure from ground based, commercial off the shelf lasers. Past research has shown that a few ground-based systems consisting of 10 kilowatt class lasers directed by 1.5 meter telescopes with adaptive optics could lower the expected number of collisions in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) by an order of magnitude. Our simulation approach utilizes the entire Two Line Element (TLE) catalogue in LEO for a given day as initial input. Least-squares fitting of a TLE time series is used for an improved orbit estimate. We then calculate the probability of collision for all LEO objects in the catalogue for a time step of the simulation. The conjunctions that exceed a threshold probability of collision are then engaged by a simulated network of laser ground stations. After those engagements, the perturbed orbits are used to re-assess the probability of collision and evaluate the efficiency of the system. This paper describes new simulations with three updated aspects: 1) By utilizing a highly parallel simulation approach employing hundreds of processors, we have extended our analysis to a much broader dataset. The simulation time is extended to one year. 2) We analyze not only the efficiency of LightForce on conjunctions that naturally occur, but also take into account conjunctions caused by orbit perturbations due to LightForce engagements. 3) We use a new simulation approach that is regularly updating the LightForce engagement strategy, as it would be during actual operations. In this paper we present our simulation approach to parallelize the efficiency analysis, its computational performance and the resulting expected efficiency of the LightForce collision avoidance system. Results indicate that utilizing a network of four LightForce stations with 20 kilowatt lasers, 85% of all conjunctions with a

  10. The climatic and hydrologic history of southern Nevada during the late Quaternary

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Forester, R.M.; Bradbury, J.P.; Carter, C.; Elvidge-Tuma, A.B.; Hemphill, M.L.; Lundstrom, S.C.; Mahan, S.A.; Marshall, B.D.; Neymark, L.A.; Paces, J.B.; Sharpe, S.E.; Whelan, J.F.; Wigand, P.E.

    1999-01-01

    Understanding climate change during the expected life span of a potential high-level nuclear-waste repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, requires estimates of future climate boundary conditions. These climate boundary conditions are governed by changes in the Earth's orbital properties (eccentricity, obliquity, precession) that determine insolation. Subcycles of the 400,000 year insolation-controlled climate cycles last approximately 100,000 years. This report describes the changes which have occurred in the climatic history of Southern Nevada during the past 400,000 years. These changes provide a basis for understanding the changes which may occur during the long-term future in this area

  11. Nanoscale Topographical Characterization of Orbital Implant Materials

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marco Salerno

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available The search for an ideal orbital implant is still ongoing in the field of ocular biomaterials. Major limitations of currently-available porous implants include the high cost along with a non-negligible risk of exposure and postoperative infection due to conjunctival abrasion. In the effort to develop better alternatives to the existing devices, two types of new glass-ceramic porous implants were fabricated by sponge replication, which is a relatively inexpensive method. Then, they were characterized by direct three-dimensional (3D contact probe mapping in real space by means of atomic force microscopy in order to assess their surface micro- and nano-features, which were quantitatively compared to those of the most commonly-used orbital implants. These silicate glass-ceramic materials exhibit a surface roughness in the range of a few hundred nanometers (Sq within 500–700 nm and topographical features comparable to those of clinically-used “gold-standard” alumina and polyethylene porous orbital implants. However, it was noted that both experimental and commercial non-porous implants were significantly smoother than all the porous ones. The results achieved in this work reveal that these porous glass-ceramic materials show promise for the intended application and encourage further investigation of their clinical suitability.

  12. Paleoclimatology of Upper Triassic Playa Cycles. New Insights Into an Orbital Controlled Monsoon System (Norian, German Basin)

    OpenAIRE

    Vollmer, Thorsten

    2005-01-01

    Paleoclimatology of Upper Triassic Playa Cycles: New Insights Into an Orbital Controlled Monsoon System (Norian, German Basin) Abstract The main purpose of the project was to study the rhythmic sediments of the Steinmergel Keuper playa system in the North and South German basin in order to test the hypothesis of possible climate control on sedimentation. Furthermore, in case of there being orbital control on sedimentation, the North/South correlation was tested based on high-resolution cyclos...

  13. Solar System Chaos and its climatic and biogeochemical consequences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ikeda, M.; Tada, R.; Ozaki, K.; Olsen, P. E.

    2017-12-01

    Insolation changes caused by changes in Earth's orbital parameters are the main driver of climatic variations, whose pace has been used for astronomically-calibrated geologic time scales of high accuracy to understand Earth system dynamics. However, the astrophysical models beyond several tens of million years ago have large uncertainty due to chaotic behavior of the Solar System, and its impact on amplitude modulation of multi-Myr-scale orbital variations and consequent climate changes has become the subject of debate. Here we show the geologic constraints on the past chaotic behavior of orbital cycles from early Mesozoic monsoon-related records; the 30-Myr-long lake level records of the lacustrine sequence in Newark-Hartford basins (North America) and 70-Myr-long biogenic silica (BSi) burial flux record of pelagic deep-sea chert sequence in Inuyama area (Japan). BSi burial flux of chert could be considered as proportional to the dissolved Si (DSi) input from chemical weathering on timescales longer than the residence time of DSi ( 100 kyr), because chert could represent a major sink for oceanic dissolved silica (Ikeda et al., 2017).These geologic records show multi-Myr cycles with similar frequency modulations of eccentricity solution of astronomical model La2010d (Laskar et al., 2011) compared with other astronomical solutions, but not exactly same. Our geologic records provide convincing evidence for the past chaotic dynamical behaviour of the Solar System and new and challenging additional constraints for astrophysical models. In addition, we find that ˜10 Myr cycle detected in monsoon proxies and their amplitude modulation of ˜2 Myr cycle may be related to the amplitude modulation of ˜2 Myr eccentricity cycle through non-linear process(es) of Earth system dynamics, suggesting possible impact of the chaotic behavior of Solar planets on climate change. Further impact of multi-Myr orbital cycles on global biogeochemical cycles will be discussed.

  14. Climate implications of carbonaceous aerosols: An aerosol microphysical study using the GISS/MATRIX climate model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bauer, Susanne E.; Menon, Surabi; Koch, Dorothy; Bond, Tami; Tsigaridis, Kostas

    2010-01-01

    Recently, attention has been drawn towards black carbon aerosols as a likely short-term climate warming mitigation candidate. However the global and regional impacts of the direct, cloud-indirect and semi-direct forcing effects are highly uncertain, due to the complex nature of aerosol evolution and its climate interactions. Black carbon is directly released as particle into the atmosphere, but then interacts with other gases and particles through condensation and coagulation processes leading to further aerosol growth, aging and internal mixing. A detailed aerosol microphysical scheme, MATRIX, embedded within the global GISS modelE includes the above processes that determine the lifecycle and climate impact of aerosols. This study presents a quantitative assessment of the impact of microphysical processes involving black carbon, such as emission size distributions and optical properties on aerosol cloud activation and radiative forcing. Our best estimate for net direct and indirect aerosol radiative forcing change is -0.56 W/m 2 between 1750 and 2000. However, the direct and indirect aerosol effects are very sensitive to the black and organic carbon size distribution and consequential mixing state. The net radiative forcing change can vary between -0.32 to -0.75 W/m 2 depending on these carbonaceous particle properties. Assuming that sulfates, nitrates and secondary organics form a coating shell around a black carbon core, rather than forming a uniformly mixed particles, changes the overall net radiative forcing from a negative to a positive number. Black carbon mitigation scenarios showed generally a benefit when mainly black carbon sources such as diesel emissions are reduced, reducing organic and black carbon sources such as bio-fuels, does not lead to reduced warming.

  15. Solar and atmospheric forcing on mountain lakes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luoto, Tomi P; Nevalainen, Liisa

    2016-10-01

    We investigated the influence of long-term external forcing on aquatic communities in Alpine lakes. Fossil microcrustacean (Cladocera) and macrobenthos (Chironomidae) community variability in four Austrian high-altitude lakes, determined as ultra-sensitive to climate change, were compared against records of air temperature, North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and solar forcing over the past ~400years. Summer temperature variability affected both aquatic invertebrate groups in all study sites. The influence of NAO and solar forcing on aquatic invertebrates was also significant in the lakes except in the less transparent lake known to have remained uniformly cold during the past centuries due to summertime snowmelt input. The results suggest that external forcing plays an important role in these pristine ecosystems through their impacts on limnology of the lakes. Not only does the air temperature variability influence the communities but also larger-scale external factors related to atmospheric circulation patterns and solar activity cause long-term changes in high-altitude aquatic ecosystems, through their connections to hydroclimatic conditions and light environment. These findings are important in the assessment of climate change impacts on aquatic ecosystems and in greater understanding of the consequences of external forcing on lake ontogeny. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  16. Orbital Dynamics of a Simple Solar Photon Thruster

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anna D. Guerman

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available We study orbital dynamics of a compound solar sail, namely, a Simple Solar Photon Thruster and compare its behavior to that of a common version of sailcraft. To perform this analysis, development of a mathematical model for force created by light reflection on all sailcraft elements is essential. We deduce the equations of sailcraft's motion and compare performance of two schemes of solar propulsion for two test time-optimal control problems of trajectory transfer.

  17. Quark potential model of baryon spin-orbit mass splittings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang Fan; Wong Chunwa

    1987-01-01

    We show that it is possible to make the P-wave spin-orbit mass splittings in Λ baryons consistent with those of nonstrange baryons in a naive quark model, but only by introducing additional terms in the quark-quark effective interaction. These terms might be related to contributions due to pomeron exchange and sea excitations. The implications of our model in meson spectroscopy and nuclear forces are discussed. (orig.)

  18. The Effect of Solar Forcing on the Greenland Ice Sheet during the Holocene - A Model Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bügelmayer, Marianne; Roche, Didier; Renssen, Hans

    2014-05-01

    Abrupt climate changes did not only happen during glacials but also during interglacials such as the Holocene. Marine sediments provide evidence for the periodic occurrence of centennial-scale events with enhanced iceberg discharge during the past 11.000 years (Bond et al., 2001). These events were chronologically linked to reduced solar activity as reconstructed using cosmogenic isotopes (Bond et al., 2001), indicating that even an external forcing that is considered to be small, has a potential impact on climate due to several feedback mechanisms (Renssen et al., 2006). The interactions between climate and solar irradiance have been investigated using numerical models (e.g. Haigh, 1996; Renssen et al, 2006), but so far without dynamically computing the Greenland ice sheet and iceberg calving. Thus, the impact of solar variations on iceberg discharge and the underlying mechanisms have not been analysed so far. To analyse the effect of variations in solar activity on the Greenland ice sheet (GIS) and the iceberg calving, as well as possible feedback mechanisms that enhance the impact of the total solar irradiance, we use the earth system model of intermediate complexity (iLOVECLIM, Roche et al., 2013), coupled to the ice sheet/ice shelf model GRISLI (Ritz et al., 2001) and to a dynamic-thermodynamic iceberg module (Jongma et al., 2009, Bügelmayer et al., 2014) to perform transient experiments of the last 6000 years. The experiments are conducted applying reconstructed atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, volcanic aerosol loads, orbital parameters and variations in the total solar irradiance. We present the response of the coupled model to different solar irradiance scenarios to evaluate modeled GIS sensitivity to relatively modest variations in radiative forcing. Moreover, we investigate the dependence of the model results on the chosen model sensitivity. References: Bond, G., Kromer, B., Beer, J., Muscheler, R., Evans, M. N., Showers, W., … Bonani, G

  19. ERS orbit control

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosengren, Mats

    1991-12-01

    The European remote sensing mission orbit control is addressed. For the commissioning phase, the orbit is defined by the following requirements: Sun synchronous, local time of descending node 10:30; three days repeat cycle with 43 orbital revolutions; overhead Venice tower (12.508206 deg east, 45.314222 deg north). The launch, maneuvers for the initial acquisition of the operational orbit, orbit maintenance maneuvers, evaluation of the orbit control, and the drift of the inclination are summarized.

  20. Investigating the Linear Dependence of Direct and Indirect Radiative Forcing on Emission of Carbonaceous Aerosols in a Global Climate Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chen, Yanju [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana IL USA; Wang, Hailong [Atmospheric Sciences and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland WA USA; Singh, Balwinder [Atmospheric Sciences and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland WA USA; Ma, Po-Lun [Atmospheric Sciences and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland WA USA; Rasch, Philip J. [Atmospheric Sciences and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland WA USA; Bond, Tami C. [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana IL USA

    2018-02-02

    The linearity of dependence of aerosol direct and indirect radiative forcing (DRF and IRF) on emissions is essential to answer the policy-relevant question on how the change in forcing would result from a change in emission. In this study, the forcing-to-emission relationship is investigated for black carbon (BC) and primary organic carbon (OC) emitted from North America and Asia. Direct and indirect radiative forcing of BC and OC are simulated with the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM5.1). Two diagnostics are introduced to aid in policy-relevant discussion: emission-normalized forcing (ENF) and linearity (R). DRF is linearly related to emission for both BC and OC from the two regions and emission-normalized DRF is similar, within 15%. IRF is linear to emissions for weaker sources and regions far from source (North American BC and OC), while for large emission sources and near source regions (Asian OC) the response of forcing to emission is sub-linear. In North America emission-normalized IRF (ENIRF) is 2-4 times higher than that in Asia. The difference among regions and species is primarily caused by failure of accumulation mode particles to become CCN, and then to activate into CDNC. Optimal aggregation area (30ºx 30º) has been used to communicate the regional variation of forcing-to-emission relationship. For IRF, only 15-40% of the Earth’s surface is significantly affected by the two emission regions, but the forcing in these regions comprises most of the global impact. Linearity of IRF occurs in about two-thirds of the significant regions except for Asian OC. ENF is an effective tool to estimate forcing changes due to reduction of surface emissions, as long as there is sufficient attention to the causes of nonlinearity in the simulations used to derive ENIRF (emission into polluted regions and emission elevation). The differences in ENIRF have important implications for policy decisions. Lower ENIRF in more polluted region like Asia means that reductions of

  1. Chemical and climatic drivers of radiative forcing due to changes in stratospheric and tropospheric ozone over the 21st century

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Banerjee

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available The ozone radiative forcings (RFs resulting from projected changes in climate, ozone-depleting substances (ODSs, non-methane ozone precursor emissions and methane between the years 2000 and 2100 are calculated using simulations from the UM-UKCA chemistry–climate model (UK Met Office's Unified Model containing the United Kingdom Chemistry and Aerosols sub-model. Projected measures to improve air-quality through reductions in non-methane tropospheric ozone precursor emissions present a co-benefit for climate, with a net global mean ozone RF of −0.09 W m−2. This is opposed by a positive ozone RF of 0.05 W m−2 due to future decreases in ODSs, which is driven by an increase in tropospheric ozone through stratosphere-to-troposphere transport of air containing higher ozone amounts. An increase in methane abundance by more than a factor of 2 (as projected by the RCP8.5 scenario is found to drive an ozone RF of 0.18 W m−2, which would greatly outweigh the climate benefits of non-methane tropospheric ozone precursor reductions. A small fraction (∼ 15 % of the ozone RF due to the projected increase in methane results from increases in stratospheric ozone. The sign of the ozone RF due to future changes in climate (including the radiative effects of greenhouse gases, sea surface temperatures and sea ice changes is shown to be dependent on the greenhouse gas emissions pathway, with a positive RF (0.05 W m−2 for RCP4.5 and a negative RF (−0.07 W m−2 for the RCP8.5 scenario. This dependence arises mainly from differences in the contribution to RF from stratospheric ozone changes. Considering the increases in tropopause height under climate change causes only small differences (≤ |0.02| W m−2 for the stratospheric, tropospheric and whole-atmosphere RFs.

  2. Implications of the methodological choices for hydrologic portrayals of climate change over the contiguous United States: Statistically downscaled forcing data and hydrologic models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mizukami, Naoki; Clark, Martyn P.; Gutmann, Ethan D.; Mendoza, Pablo A.; Newman, Andrew J.; Nijssen, Bart; Livneh, Ben; Hay, Lauren E.; Arnold, Jeffrey R.; Brekke, Levi D.

    2016-01-01

    Continental-domain assessments of climate change impacts on water resources typically rely on statistically downscaled climate model outputs to force hydrologic models at a finer spatial resolution. This study examines the effects of four statistical downscaling methods [bias-corrected constructed analog (BCCA), bias-corrected spatial disaggregation applied at daily (BCSDd) and monthly scales (BCSDm), and asynchronous regression (AR)] on retrospective hydrologic simulations using three hydrologic models with their default parameters (the Community Land Model, version 4.0; the Variable Infiltration Capacity model, version 4.1.2; and the Precipitation–Runoff Modeling System, version 3.0.4) over the contiguous United States (CONUS). Biases of hydrologic simulations forced by statistically downscaled climate data relative to the simulation with observation-based gridded data are presented. Each statistical downscaling method produces different meteorological portrayals including precipitation amount, wet-day frequency, and the energy input (i.e., shortwave radiation), and their interplay affects estimations of precipitation partitioning between evapotranspiration and runoff, extreme runoff, and hydrologic states (i.e., snow and soil moisture). The analyses show that BCCA underestimates annual precipitation by as much as −250 mm, leading to unreasonable hydrologic portrayals over the CONUS for all models. Although the other three statistical downscaling methods produce a comparable precipitation bias ranging from −10 to 8 mm across the CONUS, BCSDd severely overestimates the wet-day fraction by up to 0.25, leading to different precipitation partitioning compared to the simulations with other downscaled data. Overall, the choice of downscaling method contributes to less spread in runoff estimates (by a factor of 1.5–3) than the choice of hydrologic model with use of the default parameters if BCCA is excluded.

  3. A Typical Presentation of Orbital Pseudotumor Mimicking Orbital Cellulitis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Ayatollahi

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Orbital pseudotumor, also known as idiopathic orbital inflammatory syndrome (IOIS, is a benign, non- infective inflammatory condition of the orbit without identifiable local or systemic causes. The disease may mimics a variety of pathologic conditions. We pre-sent a case of pseudotumor observed in a patient admitted under the name of orbital celluli-ties. Case Report: A 26-year-old woman reffered to our hospital with the history of left ocular pain and headache 2 days before her visit.. Ophthalmological examination of the patient was normal except for the redness and lid edema, mild chemosis and conjunctival injection. Gen-eral assessment was normal but a low grade fever was observed. She was hospitalized as an orbital cellulitis patient. She was treated with intravenous antibiotics. On the third day , sud-denly diplopia, proptosis in her left eye and ocular pain in her right side appeared. MRI re-vealed bilateral enlargement of extraocular muscles. Diagnosis of orbital pseudotumor was made and the patient was treated with oral steroid.She responded promptly to the treatment. Antibiotics were discontinued and steroid was tapered in one month period under close fol-low up. Conclusion: The clinical features of orbital pseudotumor vary widely . Orbital pseudotumor and orbital cellulitis can occasionally demonstrate overlapping features.. Despite complete physical examination and appropriate imaging, sometimes correct diagnosis of the disease would be difficult (Sci J Hamadan Univ Med Sci 2013; 20 (3:256-259

  4. The Copernicus POD Service and beyond: Scientific exploitation of the orbit-related data and products

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peter, Heike; Fernández, Jaime; Fernández, Carlos; Féménias, Pierre

    2017-04-01

    The Copernicus POD (Precise Orbit Determination) Service is part of the Copernicus Processing Data Ground Segment (PDGS) of the Sentinel-1, -2 and -3 missions. A GMV-led consortium is operating the Copernicus POD Service being in charge of generating precise orbital products and auxiliary data files for their use as part of the processing chains of the respective Sentinel PDGS. The orbital products are available through the dedicated Copernicus data hub. The Copernicus POD Service is supported by the Copernicus POD Quality Working Group (QWG) for the validation of the orbit product accuracy. The QWG is delivering independent orbit solutions for the satellites. The cross-comparison of all these orbit solutions is essential to monitor and to improve the orbit accuracy because for Sentinel-1 and -2 this is the only possibility to externally assess the quality of the orbits. Each of the Sentinel-1, -2, and -3 satellites carries dual-frequency GPS receivers delivering the necessary measurements for the precise orbit determination of the satellites. The Sentinel-3 satellites are additionally equipped with a DORIS (Doppler Orbitography and Radiopositioning Integrated by Satellite) receiver and a Laser Retro Reflector for Satellite Laser Ranging. These two additional observation techniques allow for independent validation of the GPS-derived orbit determination results and for studying biases between the different techniques. The scientific exploitation of the orbit determination and the corresponding input data is manifold. Sophisticated satellite macro models improve the modelling of the non-gravitational forces acting on the satellite. On the other hand, comparisons to orbits based on pure empirical modelling of the non-gravitational forces help to sort out deficiencies in the satellite geometry information. The dual-frequency GPS data delivered by the satellites can give valuable input for ionospheric studies important for Space Weather research. So-called kinematic

  5. Assessing the Organizational Climate in the Belgian Armed Forces

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Mylle, Jacques

    1998-01-01

    ... are. Organizational climate is defined as the synthetic, collective perception of a set of relatively stable internal aspects of the organization as experienced and described by the members of that organization.

  6. Climate effects of anthropogenic sulfate: Simulations from a coupled chemistry/climate model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chuang, C.C.; Penner, J.E.; Taylor, K.E.; Walton, J.J.

    1993-09-01

    In this paper, we use a more comprehensive approach by coupling a climate model with a 3-D global chemistry model to investigate the forcing by anthropogenic aerosol sulfate. The chemistry model treats the global-scale transport, transformation, and removal of SO 2 , DMS and H 2 SO 4 species in the atmosphere. The mass concentration of anthropogenic sulfate from fossil fuel combustion and biomass burning is calculated in the chemistry model and provided to the climate model where it affects the shortwave radiation. We also investigate the effect, with cloud nucleation parameterized in terms of local aerosol number, sulfate mass concentration and updraft velocity. Our simulations indicate that anthropogenic sulfate may result in important increases in reflected solar radiation, which would mask locally the radiative forcing from increased greenhouse gases. Uncertainties in these results will be discussed

  7. Climate conditions in Sweden in a 100,000-year time perspective

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kjellstroem, Erik; Strandberg, Gustav (Rossby Centre, SMHI, Norrkoeping (Sweden)); Brandefelt, Jenny (Dept. of Mechanics, Royal Inst. of Technology, Stockholm (Sweden)); Naeslund, Jens-Ove (Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co., Stockholm (Sweden)); Smith, Ben (Dept of Physical Geography and Ecosystems Analysis, Lund Univ., Lund (Sweden)); Wohlfarth, Barbara (Dept. of Geology and Geochemistry, Stockholm Univ., Stockholm (Sweden))

    2009-04-15

    This report presents results from a project devoted to describing the climatic extremes within which the climate in Fennoscandia may vary over a 100,000 year time span. Based on forcing conditions which have yielded extreme conditions during the last glacial-interglacial cycle, as well as possible future conditions following continued anthropogenic emissions, projections of climate conditions have been made with climate models. Three different periods have been studied; i) a stadial within Marine Isotope Stage 3 (MIS 3) during the last glacial cycle, representing a cold period with a relatively small ice sheet covering parts of Fennoscandia, ii) the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), with an extensive ice sheet covering large parts of northern Europe and iii) a possible future period in a climate warmer than today. The future case is characterised by high greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere and a complete loss of the Greenland ice sheet. The climate modelling involved the use of a global climate model (GCM) for producing boundary conditions that were used by a regional climate model (RCM). The regional model produced detailed information on climate variables like near-surface air temperature and precipitation over Europe. These climate variables were subsequently used to force a vegetation model that produced a vegetation cover over Europe, consistent with the simulated regional climate. In a final step, the new vegetation cover from the vegetation model was used in the regional climate model to produce the final regional climate. For the studied periods, data on relevant climate parameters have been extracted from the regional model for the Forsmark and Oskarshamn areas on the Swedish east coast and the Olkiluoto region on the west coast of Finland. Due to computational constraints, the modelling efforts include only one forcing scenario per time period. As there is a large degree of uncertainty in the choice of an appropriate forcing scenario, we perform

  8. Climate conditions in Sweden in a 100,000-year time perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kjellstroem, Erik; Strandberg, Gustav; Brandefelt, Jenny; Naeslund, Jens-Ove; Smith, Ben; Wohlfarth, Barbara

    2009-04-01

    This report presents results from a project devoted to describing the climatic extremes within which the climate in Fennoscandia may vary over a 100,000 year time span. Based on forcing conditions which have yielded extreme conditions during the last glacial-interglacial cycle, as well as possible future conditions following continued anthropogenic emissions, projections of climate conditions have been made with climate models. Three different periods have been studied; i) a stadial within Marine Isotope Stage 3 (MIS 3) during the last glacial cycle, representing a cold period with a relatively small ice sheet covering parts of Fennoscandia, ii) the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), with an extensive ice sheet covering large parts of northern Europe and iii) a possible future period in a climate warmer than today. The future case is characterised by high greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere and a complete loss of the Greenland ice sheet. The climate modelling involved the use of a global climate model (GCM) for producing boundary conditions that were used by a regional climate model (RCM). The regional model produced detailed information on climate variables like near-surface air temperature and precipitation over Europe. These climate variables were subsequently used to force a vegetation model that produced a vegetation cover over Europe, consistent with the simulated regional climate. In a final step, the new vegetation cover from the vegetation model was used in the regional climate model to produce the final regional climate. For the studied periods, data on relevant climate parameters have been extracted from the regional model for the Forsmark and Oskarshamn areas on the Swedish east coast and the Olkiluoto region on the west coast of Finland. Due to computational constraints, the modelling efforts include only one forcing scenario per time period. As there is a large degree of uncertainty in the choice of an appropriate forcing scenario, we perform

  9. Contrasting trends in North Atlantic deep-water formation in the Labrador Sea and Nordic Seas during the Holocene

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Renssen, H.; Goosse, H.; Fichefet, T.

    2005-01-01

    The Holocene North Atlantic deep-water formation is studied in a 9,000-year long simulation with a coupled climate model of intermediate complexity, forced by changes in orbital forcing and atmospheric trace gas concentrations. During the experiment, deep-water formation in the Nordic Seas is

  10. Greenhouse gas policy influences climate via direct effects of land-use change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jones, Andrew D.; Collins, William D.; Edmonds, James A.; Torn, Margaret S.; Janetos, Anthony C.; Calvin, Katherine V.; Thomson, Allison M.; Chini, Louise M.; Mao, Jiafu; Shi, Xiaoying; Thornton, Peter; Hurtt, George; Wise, Marshall A.

    2013-06-01

    Proposed climate mitigation measures do not account for direct biophysical climate impacts of land-use change (LUC), nor do the stabilization targets modeled for the 5th Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). To examine the significance of such effects on global and regional patterns of climate change, a baseline and alternative scenario of future anthropogenic activity are simulated within the Integrated Earth System Model, which couples the Global Change Assessment Model, Global Land-use Model, and Community Earth System Model. The alternative scenario has high biofuel utilization and approximately 50% less global forest cover compared to the baseline, standard RCP4.5 scenario. Both scenarios stabilize radiative forcing from atmospheric constituents at 4.5 W/m2 by 2100. Thus, differences between their climate predictions quantify the biophysical effects of LUC. Offline radiative transfer and land model simulations are also utilized to identify forcing and feedback mechanisms driving the coupled response. Boreal deforestation is found to strongly influence climate due to increased albedo coupled with a regional-scale water vapor feedback. Globally, the alternative scenario yields a 21st century warming trend that is 0.5 °C cooler than baseline, driven by a 1 W/m2 mean decrease in radiative forcing that is distributed unevenly around the globe. Some regions are cooler in the alternative scenario than in 2005. These results demonstrate that neither climate change nor actual radiative forcing are uniquely related to atmospheric forcing targets such as those found in the RCP’s, but rather depend on particulars of the socioeconomic pathways followed to meet each target.

  11. Verified solutions for the gravitational attraction to an oblate spheroid: Implications for planet mass and satellite orbits

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hofmeister, Anne M.; Criss, Robert E.; Criss, Everett M.

    2018-03-01

    Forces external to the oblate spheroid shape, observed from planetary to galactic scales, are demonstrably non-central, which has important ramifications for planetary science. We simplify historic formulae and derive new analytical solutions for the gravitational potential and force outside a constant density oblate. Numerical calculations that sum point mass contributions in a >109 element mesh confirm our equations. We show that contours of constant force and potential about oblate bodies are closely approximated by two confocal families whose foci (f) respectively are (9/10)½ae and (3/5)½ae for a body with f = ae. This leads to useful approximations that address internal density variations. We demonstrate that the force on a general point is not directed towards the oblate's center, nor are forces simply proportional to the inverse square of that distance, despite forces in the equatorial and axial directions pointing towards the center. Our results explain complex dynamics of galactic systems. Because most planets and stars have an aspect ratio >0.9, the spherical approximation is reasonable except for orbits within ∼2 body radii. We show that applying the "generalized" potential, which assumes central forces, yields J2 values half those expected for oblate bodies, and probably underestimates masses of Uranus and Neptune by ∼0.2%. We show that the inner Saturnian moons are subject to non-central forces, which may affect calculations of their orbital precession. Our new series should improve interpretation of flyby data.

  12. Rates of change in natural and anthropogenic radiative forcing over the past 20,000 years.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joos, Fortunat; Spahni, Renato

    2008-02-05

    The rate of change of climate codetermines the global warming impacts on natural and socioeconomic systems and their capabilities to adapt. Establishing past rates of climate change from temperature proxy data remains difficult given their limited spatiotemporal resolution. In contrast, past greenhouse gas radiative forcing, causing climate to change, is well known from ice cores. We compare rates of change of anthropogenic forcing with rates of natural greenhouse gas forcing since the Last Glacial Maximum and of solar and volcanic forcing of the last millennium. The smoothing of atmospheric variations by the enclosure process of air into ice is computed with a firn diffusion and enclosure model. The 20th century increase in CO(2) and its radiative forcing occurred more than an order of magnitude faster than any sustained change during the past 22,000 years. The average rate of increase in the radiative forcing not just from CO(2) but from the combination of CO(2), CH(4), and N(2)O is larger during the Industrial Era than during any comparable period of at least the past 16,000 years. In addition, the decadal-to-century scale rate of change in anthropogenic forcing is unusually high in the context of the natural forcing variations (solar and volcanoes) of the past millennium. Our analysis implies that global climate change, which is anthropogenic in origin, is progressing at a speed that is unprecedented at least during the last 22,000 years.

  13. Joint Force Quarterly. Number 33, Winter 2002-03

    Science.gov (United States)

    2003-04-01

    Follow-on ( UFO ) System, Mobile User Objective System (MUOS) Position, Velocity, Time, Semi-synchronous Orbit Global Positioning System (GPS), GPS II/IIA...in 1945, Austria had been integral to the Nazi war machine. Occu- pation policy in the early postwar years reflected this ambiguity. U.S. forces alien

  14. Strength of forest-albedo feedback in mid-Holocene climate simulations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Otto

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available Reconstructions of the mid-Holocene climate, 6000 years before present, suggest that spring temperatures were higher at high northern latitudes compared to the pre-industrial period. A positive feedback between expansion of forest and climate presumably contributed to this warming. In the presence of snow, forests have a lower albedo than grass land. Therefore, the expansion of forest likely favoured a warming in spring, counteracting the lower insolation at the mid-Holocene.

    We investigate the sensitivity of the vegetation-atmosphere interaction under mid-Holocene orbital forcing with respect to the strength of the forest-albedo feedback by using a comprehensive coupled atmosphere-vegetation model (ECHAM5/JSBACH. We perform two sets of model simulations: a first set of simulations with a relatively weak reduction of albedo of snow by forest; and a second set of simulations with a relatively strong reduction of the albedo of snow by forest.

    We show that the parameterisation of the albedo of snow leads to uncertainties in the temperature signal. Compared to the set with weak snow masking, the simulations with strong snow masking reveal a spring warming that is three times higher, by 0.34 °C north of 60° N. This warming is related to a forest expansion of only 13%.

  15. A unified nonlinear stochastic time series analysis for climate science.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moon, Woosok; Wettlaufer, John S

    2017-03-13

    Earth's orbit and axial tilt imprint a strong seasonal cycle on climatological data. Climate variability is typically viewed in terms of fluctuations in the seasonal cycle induced by higher frequency processes. We can interpret this as a competition between the orbitally enforced monthly stability and the fluctuations/noise induced by weather. Here we introduce a new time-series method that determines these contributions from monthly-averaged data. We find that the spatio-temporal distribution of the monthly stability and the magnitude of the noise reveal key fingerprints of several important climate phenomena, including the evolution of the Arctic sea ice cover, the El Nio Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Atlantic Nio and the Indian Dipole Mode. In analogy with the classical destabilising influence of the ice-albedo feedback on summertime sea ice, we find that during some time interval of the season a destabilising process operates in all of these climate phenomena. The interaction between the destabilisation and the accumulation of noise, which we term the memory effect, underlies phase locking to the seasonal cycle and the statistical nature of seasonal predictability.

  16. Orbits

    CERN Document Server

    Xu, Guochang

    2008-01-01

    This is the first book of the satellite era which describes orbit theory with analytical solutions of the second order with respect to all possible disturbances. Based on such theory, the algorithms of orbits determination are completely revolutionized.

  17. Early Mission Maneuver Operations for the Deep Space Climate Observatory Sun-Earth L1 Libration Point Mission

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roberts, Craig; Case, Sara; Reagoso, John; Webster, Cassandra

    2015-01-01

    The Deep Space Climate Observatory mission launched on February 11, 2015, and inserted onto a transfer trajectory toward a Lissajous orbit around the Sun-Earth L1 libration point. This paper presents an overview of the baseline transfer orbit and early mission maneuver operations leading up to the start of nominal science orbit operations. In particular, the analysis and performance of the spacecraft insertion, mid-course correction maneuvers, and the deep-space Lissajous orbit insertion maneuvers are discussed, com-paring the baseline orbit with actual mission results and highlighting mission and operations constraints..

  18. The Use of Remote Sensing to Resolve the Aerosol Radiative Forcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaufman, Y. J.; Tanre, D.; Remer, Lorraine

    1999-01-01

    Satellites are used for remote sensing of aerosol optical thickness and optical properties in order to derive the aerosol direct and indirect radiative forcing of climate. Accuracy of the derived aerosol optical thickness is used as a measure of the accuracy in deriving the aerosol radiative forcing. Several questions can be asked to challenge this concept. Is the accuracy of the satellite-derived aerosol direct forcing limited to the accuracy of the measured optical thickness? What are the spectral bands needed to derive the total aerosol forcing? Does most of the direct or indirect aerosol forcing of climate originate from regions with aerosol concentrations that are high enough to be detected from space? What should be the synergism ground-based and space-borne remote sensing to solve the problem? We shall try to answer some of these questions, using AVIRIS airborne measurements and simulations.

  19. Ponderomotive force near cyclotron resonance

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kono, Mitsuo; Sanuki, Heiji

    1987-01-01

    The ponderomotive force, which is involved in the excitation of macroscopic behaviors of plasma caused by wave motion, plays an important role in various non-linear wave motion phenomena. In the present study, equations for the pondermotive force for plasma in a uniform magnetic field is derived using a renormalization theory which is based on the Vlasov equation. It is shown that the pondermotive force, which diverges at the cyclotron resonence point according to adiabatic approximation, can be expressed by a non-divergent equation by taking into account the instability of the cyclotron orbit due to high-order scattering caused by a wave. This is related with chaotic particle behaviors near cyclotron resonance, where the pondermotive force is small and the diffusion process prevails. It is assumed here that the amplitude of the high-frequency electric field is not large and that the broadening of cyclotron levels is smaller than the distance between the levels. A global chaos will be created if the amplitude of the electric field becomes greater to allow the broadening to exceed the distance between the levels. (Nogami, K.).

  20. Climate scenarios for Olkiluoto on a time-scale of 120,000 years

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pimenoff, N.; Venaelaeinen, A.; Jaervinen, H. [Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki (Finland)

    2011-12-15

    Posiva Oy is planning to dispose of spent nuclear fuel in a repository, to be constructed at a depth of 400 m in the crystalline bedrock at Olkiluoto, Finland. Planning the storage requires careful consideration of many aspects, including an assessment of long-term repository safety. For estimating possible climate states at Olkiluoto on a time-scale of 120,000 years, we analyze climate simulations of an Earth System Model of Intermediate Complexity (CLIMBER-2) coupled with an ice sheet model (SICOPOLIS). The simulations into the future clearly show that the onset of the next glaciation is strongly dependent on the Earth's orbital variations and the atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentration. It is evident that due to global warming, the climate of the next centuries will be warmer and wetter than at present. Most likely, due to global warming and low variations in the Earth's orbit around the sun, the present interglacial will last for at least the next 30,000 years. Further, the future simulations showed that the insolation minima on the Northern Hemisphere 50,000-60,000 and 90,000-100,000 years after the present hold a potential for the onset of the next glaciation. Hence, on a time-scale of 120,000 years, one must take into account climate periods lasting several thousand years having the following features: an interglacial climate, a periglacial climate, a climate with an ice sheet margin near Olkiluoto, a glacial climate with an ice sheet covering Olkiluoto, and a climate with Olkiluoto being depressed below sea level after glaciation due to isostatic depression. Due to the uncertainties related to the evolution of the future climate, it is recommended the simulations into the far future to be used only qualitatively. Quantitative information about glacial climate is achieved from the reconstructions and simulations of the past climate. (orig.)