WorldWideScience

Sample records for options evaluation model

  1. Modelling approach to LILW-SL repository safety evaluation for different waste packing options

    Perko, Janez; Mallants, Dirk; Volckaert, Geert; Towler, George; Egan, Mike; Virsek, Sandi; Hertl, Bojan

    2007-01-01

    The key objective of the work described here was to support the identification of a preferred disposal concept and packaging option for low and short-lived intermediate level waste (LILW-SL). The emphasis of the assessment, conducted on behalf of the Slovenian radioactive waste management agency (ARAO), was the consideration of several waste treatment and packaging options in an attempt to identify optimised containment characteristics that would result in safe disposal, taking into account the cost-benefit of alternative safety measures. Waste streams for which alternative treatment and packaging solutions were developed and evaluated include decommissioning waste and NPP operational wastes, including drums with unconditioned ion exchange resins in over-packed tube type containers (TTCs). For decommissioning wastes, the disposal options under consideration were either direct disposal of loose pieces grouted into a vault or use of high integrity containers (HIC). In relation to operational wastes, three main options were foreseen. The first is over-packing of resin containing TTCs grouted into high integrity containers, the second option is complete treatment with hydration, neutralization, and cementation of the dry resins into drums grouted into high integrity containers and the third is direct disposal of TTCs into high integrity containers without additional treatment. The long-term safety of radioactive waste repositories is usually demonstrated with the support of a safety assessment. This normally includes modelling of radionuclide release from a multi-barrier near-surface or deep repository to the geosphere and biosphere. For the current work, performance assessment models were developed for each combination of siting option, repository design and waste packaging option. Modelling of releases from the engineered containment system (the 'near-field') was undertaken using the AMBER code. Detailed unsaturated water flow modelling was undertaken using the

  2. A real option-based simulation model to evaluate investments in pump storage plants

    Muche, Thomas

    2009-01-01

    Investments in pump storage plants are expected to grow especially due to their ability to store an excess of supply from wind power plants. In order to evaluate these investments correctly the peculiarities of pump storage plants and the characteristics of liberalized power markets have to be considered. The main characteristics of power markets are the strong power price volatility and the occurrence of prices spikes. In this article a valuation model is developed capturing these aspects using power price simulation, optimization of unit commitment and capital market theory. This valuation model is able to value a future price-based unit commitment planning that corresponds to future scope of actions also called real options. The resulting real option value for the pump storage plant is compared with the traditional net present value approach. Because this approach is not able to evaluate scope of actions correctly it results in strongly smaller investment values and forces wrong investment decisions.

  3. Renewable energy policy evaluation using real option model. The case of Taiwan

    Lee, Shun-Chung; Shih, Li-Hsing

    2010-01-01

    This study presents a policy benefit evaluation model that integrates cost efficiency curve information on renewable power generation technologies into real options analysis (ROA) methods. The proposed model evaluates quantitatively the policy value provided by developing renewable energy (RE) in the face of uncertain fossil fuel prices and RE policy-related factors. The economic intuition underlying the policy-making process is elucidated, while empirical analysis illustrates the option value embedded in the current development policy in Taiwan for wind power. In addition to revealing the benefits that RE development provides when considering real options, analytical results indicate that ROA is a highly effective means of quantifying how policy planning uncertainty including managerial flexibility influences RE development. In addition to assessing the policy value of current RE development policy, this study also compares policy values in terms of internalized external costs and varying feed-in tariff (FIT). Simulation results demonstrate that the RE development policy with internalized CO 2 emission costs is appropriate policy planning from sustainability point of view. Furthermore, relationship between varying FIT and policy values can be shown quantitatively and appropriate FIT level could be determined accordingly. (author)

  4. A real options-based CCS investment evaluation model: Case study of China's power generation sector

    Zhu, Lei; Fan, Ying

    2011-01-01

    Highlights: → This paper establishes a carbon captures and storage (CCS) investment evaluation model. → The model is based on real options theory and solved by the Least Squares Monte Carlo (LSM) method. → China is taken as a case study to evaluate the effects of regulations on CCS investment. → The findings show that the current investment risk of CCS is high, climate policy having the greatest impact on CCS development. -- Abstract: This paper establishes a carbon capture and storage (CCS) investment evaluation model based on real options theory considering uncertainties from the existing thermal power generating cost, carbon price, thermal power with CCS generating cost, and investment in CCS technology deployment. The model aims to evaluate the value of the cost saving effect and amount of CO 2 emission reduction through investing in newly-built thermal power with CCS technology to replace existing thermal power in a given period from the perspective of power generation enterprises. The model is solved by the Least Squares Monte Carlo (LSM) method. Since the model could be used as a policy analysis tool, China is taken as a case study to evaluate the effects of regulations on CCS investment through scenario analysis. The findings show that the current investment risk of CCS is high, climate policy having the greatest impact on CCS development. Thus, there is an important trade off for policy makers between reducing greenhouse gas emissions and protecting the interests of power generation enterprises. The research presented would be useful for CCS technology evaluation and related policy-making.

  5. A real options evaluation model for the diffusion prospects of new renewable power generation technologies

    Kumbaroglu, Guerkan; Madlener, Reinhard; Demirel, Mustafa

    2008-01-01

    This study presents a policy planning model that integrates learning curve information on renewable power generation technologies into a dynamic programming formulation featuring real options analysis. The model recursively evaluates a set of investment alternatives on a year-by-year basis, thereby taking into account that the flexibility to delay an irreversible investment expenditure can profoundly affect the diffusion prospects of renewable power generation technologies. Price uncertainty is introduced through stochastic processes for the average wholesale price of electricity and for input fuel prices. Demand for electricity is assumed to be increasingly price-sensitive, as the electricity market deregulation proceeds, reflecting new options of consumers to react to electricity price changes (such as time-of-use pricing, unbundled electricity services, and choice of supplier). The empirical analysis is based on data for the Turkish electricity supply industry. Apart from general implications for policy-making, it provides some interesting insights about the impact of uncertainty and technical change on the diffusion of various emerging renewable energy technologies

  6. Evaluating technology service options.

    Blumberg, D F

    1997-05-01

    Four service and support options are available to healthcare organizations for maintaining their growth arsenals of medical and information technology. These options include maintaining and servicing all equipment using a facility-based biomedical engineering and MIS service department; using a combination of facility-based service and subcontracted service; expanding facility-based biomedical and MIS service departments to provide service to other healthcare organizations to achieve economies of scale; and outsourcing all maintenance, repair, and technical support services. Independent service companies and original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) are offering healthcare organizations a wider array of service and support capabilities than ever before. However, some health systems have successfully developed their own independent service organizations to take care of their own--and other healthcare organizations'--service and support needs.

  7. Sustainability Evaluation Framework of Urban Stormwater Drainage Options for Arid Environments Using Hydraulic Modeling and Multicriteria Decision-Making

    Mohammad Alhumaid

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Stormwater drainage systems in urban areas located in arid environmental regions generally consist of storm-sewer networks and man-made ponds for the collection and disposal of runoff, respectively. Due to expansion in cities’ boundaries as a result of population growth, the capacity of existing drainage systems has been exhausted. Therefore, such systems overflow even during the smaller (than the design return period floods. At the same time, changing rainfall patterns and flash floods due to climate change are other phenomena that need appropriate attention. Consequently, the municipalities in arid environmental regions are facing challenges for effective decision-making concerning (i improvement needs for drainage networks for safe collection of stormwater, (ii selection of most feasible locations for additional ponds, and (iii evaluation of other suitable options, such as micro-tunneling. In this research, a framework has been developed to evaluate different stormwater drainage options for urban areas of arid regions. Rainfall-runoff modeling was performed with the help of Hydrological-Engineering-Centre, Hydrological-Modelling-System (HEC-HMS. To evaluate the efficacy of each option for handling a given design flood, hydraulic-modeling was performed using SewerGEMS. Meteorological and topographical data was gathered from the Municipality of Buraydah and processed to generate different inputs required for hydraulic modeling. Finally, multicriteria decision-making (MCDM was performed to evaluate all the options on the basis of four sustainability criteria, i.e., flood risk, economic viability, environmental impacts, and technical constraints. Criteria weights were established through group decision-making using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP. Preference-Ranking-Organization-Method for Enrichment-Evaluation (PROMETHEE II was used for final ranking of stormwater drainage options. The proposed framework has been implemented on a case of

  8. Modelling approach to evaluate safety of LILW-SL disposal in slovenia considering different waste packaging options

    Perko, J.; Mallants, D.

    2007-01-01

    The long-term safety of radioactive waste repositories is usually demonstrated by means of a safety assessment which normally includes modelling of radionuclide release from a multi-barrier surface or deep repository to the geosphere and biosphere. The present quantitative evaluation performed emphasizes on contrasting disposal options under consideration in Slovenia and concerns siting, disposal concept (deep versus surface), and waste packaging. The assessment has identified a number of conditions that would lead to acceptable waste disposal solutions, while at the same time results also revealed options that would result in exceeding the radiological criteria. Results presented are the output of a collective effort of a Quintessa-led Consortium with SCK-CEN and Belgatom, in the framework of a recent PHARE project. The key objective of this work was to identify the preferred disposal concept and packaging option from a number of alternatives being considered by the Slovenian radioactive waste management agency (ARAO) for low and intermediate level short-lived waste (LILW-SL). The emphasis of the assessment was the consideration of several waste treatment and packaging options in an attempt to identify the minimum required containment characteristics which would result in safe disposal and the cost-benefit of additional safety measures. Waste streams for which alternative treatment and packaging solutions were developed and evaluated include decommissioning waste and NPP operational wastes containing drums with unconditioned ion exchange resins in overpacked tube type containers (TTCs). For the former the disposal options under consideration were either direct disposal of loose pieces grouted into a vault or use of high integrity containers. For the latter three options were foreseen. The first is overpacking of resin containing TTCs grouted into high integrity containers, the second option is complete treatment with hydration, neutralisation, and cementation of

  9. Document Delivery: Evaluating the Options.

    Ward, Suzanne M.

    1997-01-01

    Discusses options available to libraries for document delivery. Topics include users' needs; cost; copyright compliance; traditional interlibrary loan; types of suppliers; selection criteria, including customer service; new developments in interlibrary loan, including outsourcing arrangements; and the need to evaluate suppliers. (LRW)

  10. Depleted uranium disposal options evaluation

    Hertzler, T.J.; Nishimoto, D.D.; Otis, M.D.

    1994-05-01

    The Department of Energy (DOE), Office of Environmental Restoration and Waste Management, has chartered a study to evaluate alternative management strategies for depleted uranium (DU) currently stored throughout the DOE complex. Historically, DU has been maintained as a strategic resource because of uses for DU metal and potential uses for further enrichment or for uranium oxide as breeder reactor blanket fuel. This study has focused on evaluating the disposal options for DU if it were considered a waste. This report is in no way declaring these DU reserves a ''waste,'' but is intended to provide baseline data for comparison with other management options for use of DU. To PICS considered in this report include: Retrievable disposal; permanent disposal; health hazards; radiation toxicity and chemical toxicity

  11. Evaluating Domestic Hot Water Distribution System Options with Validated Analysis Models

    Weitzel, E. [Alliance for Residential Building Innovation, Davis, CA (United States); Hoeschele, E. [Alliance for Residential Building Innovation, Davis, CA (United States)

    2014-09-01

    A developing body of work is forming that collects data on domestic hot water consumption, water use behaviors, and energy efficiency of various distribution systems. Transient System Simulation Tool (TRNSYS) is a full distribution system developed that has been validated using field monitoring data and then exercised in a number of climates to understand climate impact on performance. In this study, the Building America team built upon previous analysis modeling work to evaluate differing distribution systems and the sensitivities of water heating energy and water use efficiency to variations of climate, load, distribution type, insulation and compact plumbing practices. Overall, 124 different TRNSYS models were simulated. The results of this work are useful in informing future development of water heating best practices guides as well as more accurate (and simulation time efficient) distribution models for annual whole house simulation programs.

  12. Evaluating State Options for Reducing Medicaid Churning

    Swartz, Katherine; Short, Pamela Farley; Graefe, Deborah R.; Uberoi, Namrata

    2015-01-01

    Medicaid churning - the constant exit and re-entry of beneficiaries as their eligibility changes - has long been a problem for both Medicaid administrators and recipients. Churning will continue under the Affordable Care Act, because despite new federal rules, Medicaid eligibility will continue to be based on current monthly income. We developed a longitudinal simulation model to evaluate four policy options for modifying or extending Medicaid eligibility to reduce churning. The simulations suggest that two options, extending Medicaid eligibility either to the end of a calendar year or for twelve months after enrollment, would be far more effective in reducing churning than the other options of a three-month extension or eligibility based on projected annual income. States should consider implementation of the option that best balances costs, including both administration and services, with improved health of Medicaid enrollees. PMID:26153313

  13. Evaluating Domestic Hot Water Distribution System Options With Validated Analysis Models

    Weitzel, E.; Hoeschele, M.

    2014-09-01

    A developing body of work is forming that collects data on domestic hot water consumption, water use behaviors, and energy efficiency of various distribution systems. A full distribution system developed in TRNSYS has been validated using field monitoring data and then exercised in a number of climates to understand climate impact on performance. This study builds upon previous analysis modelling work to evaluate differing distribution systems and the sensitivities of water heating energy and water use efficiency to variations of climate, load, distribution type, insulation and compact plumbing practices. Overall 124 different TRNSYS models were simulated. Of the configurations evaluated, distribution losses account for 13-29% of the total water heating energy use and water use efficiency ranges from 11-22%. The base case, an uninsulated trunk and branch system sees the most improvement in energy consumption by insulating and locating the water heater central to all fixtures. Demand recirculation systems are not projected to provide significant energy savings and in some cases increase energy consumption. Water use is most efficient with demand recirculation systems, followed by the insulated trunk and branch system with a central water heater. Compact plumbing practices and insulation have the most impact on energy consumption (2-6% for insulation and 3-4% per 10 gallons of enclosed volume reduced). The results of this work are useful in informing future development of water heating best practices guides as well as more accurate (and simulation time efficient) distribution models for annual whole house simulation programs.

  14. Modelling remediation options for urban contamination situations

    Thiessen, K.M.; Andersson, Kasper Grann; Charnock, T.W.

    2009-01-01

    and remedial options enables the evaluation of a variety of situations or alternative recovery strategies in contexts of preparedness or decision-making. At present a number of models and modelling approaches are available for different purposes. This paper summarizes the available modelling approaches...

  15. The community Noah land surface model with multiparameterization options (Noah-MP): 2. Evaluation over global river basins

    Yang, Zong-Liang

    2011-06-24

    The augmented Noah land surface model described in the first part of the two-part series was evaluated here over global river basins. Across various climate zones, global-scale tests can reveal a model\\'s weaknesses and strengths that a local-scale testing cannot. In addition, global-scale tests are more challenging than local- and catchment-scale tests. Given constant model parameters (e. g., runoff parameters) across global river basins, global-scale tests are more stringent. We assessed model performance against various satellite and ground-based observations over global river basins through six experiments that mimic a transition from the original Noah LSM to the fully augmented version. The model shows transitional improvements in modeling runoff, soil moisture, snow, and skin temperature, despite considerable increase in computational time by the fully augmented Noah-MP version compared to the original Noah LSM. The dynamic vegetation model favorably captures seasonal and spatial variability of leaf area index and green vegetation fraction. We also conducted 36 ensemble experiments with 36 combinations of optional schemes for runoff, leaf dynamics, stomatal resistance, and the β factor. Runoff schemes play a dominant and different role in controlling soil moisture and its relationship with evapotranspiration compared to ecological processes such as β the factor, vegetation dynamics, and stomatal resistance. The 36-member ensemble mean of runoff performs better than any single member over the world\\'s 50 largest river basins, suggesting a great potential of land-based ensemble simulations for climate prediction. Copyright © 2011 by the American Geophysical Union.

  16. Model Calibration in Option Pricing

    Andre Loerx

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available We consider calibration problems for models of pricing derivatives which occur in mathematical finance. We discuss various approaches such as using stochastic differential equations or partial differential equations for the modeling process. We discuss the development in the past literature and give an outlook into modern approaches of modelling. Furthermore, we address important numerical issues in the valuation of options and likewise the calibration of these models. This leads to interesting problems in optimization, where, e.g., the use of adjoint equations or the choice of the parametrization for the model parameters play an important role.

  17. The community Noah land surface model with multiparameterization options (Noah-MP): 1. Model description and evaluation with local-scale measurements

    Niu, Guo-Yue

    2011-06-24

    This first paper of the two-part series describes the objectives of the community efforts in improving the Noah land surface model (LSM), documents, through mathematical formulations, the augmented conceptual realism in biophysical and hydrological processes, and introduces a framework for multiple options to parameterize selected processes (Noah-MP). The Noah-MP\\'s performance is evaluated at various local sites using high temporal frequency data sets, and results show the advantages of using multiple optional schemes to interpret the differences in modeling simulations. The second paper focuses on ensemble evaluations with long-term regional (basin) and global scale data sets. The enhanced conceptual realism includes (1) the vegetation canopy energy balance, (2) the layered snowpack, (3) frozen soil and infiltration, (4) soil moisture-groundwater interaction and related runoff production, and (5) vegetation phenology. Sample local-scale validations are conducted over the First International Satellite Land Surface Climatology Project (ISLSCP) Field Experiment (FIFE) site, the W3 catchment of Sleepers River, Vermont, and a French snow observation site. Noah-MP shows apparent improvements in reproducing surface fluxes, skin temperature over dry periods, snow water equivalent (SWE), snow depth, and runoff over Noah LSM version 3.0. Noah-MP improves the SWE simulations due to more accurate simulations of the diurnal variations of the snow skin temperature, which is critical for computing available energy for melting. Noah-MP also improves the simulation of runoff peaks and timing by introducing a more permeable frozen soil and more accurate simulation of snowmelt. We also demonstrate that Noah-MP is an effective research tool by which modeling results for a given process can be interpreted through multiple optional parameterization schemes in the same model framework. Copyright © 2011 by the American Geophysical Union.

  18. The community Noah land surface model with multiparameterization options (Noah-MP): 1. Model description and evaluation with local-scale measurements

    Niu, Guo-Yue; Yang, Zong-Liang; Mitchell, Kenneth E.; Chen, Fei; Ek, Michael B.; Barlage, Michael; Kumar, Anil; Manning, Kevin; Niyogi, Dev; Rosero, Enrique; Tewari, Mukul; Xia, Youlong

    2011-01-01

    processes, and introduces a framework for multiple options to parameterize selected processes (Noah-MP). The Noah-MP's performance is evaluated at various local sites using high temporal frequency data sets, and results show the advantages of using multiple

  19. Research into real-option evaluation method

    Shiba, Tsuyoshi; Wakamatsu, Hitoshi

    2002-03-01

    As an evaluational method for valuation of a corporation, an investment project, a research and development, or the evaluation technique of an enterprise strategy, a real option analysis attracts attention instead of conventional Discount Cash Flow method. The reason is that it can divert the technique for the option valuation in financial engineering to the decision-making process performed according to change in investment environment. Related references, the analysis tools, the application examples, etc. were investigated about the decision-making technique using real option analysis, and this investigation considered the application method to decision-making of the research and development at Japan Nuclear Cycle Development Institute. Consequently, since the feature is in real option analysis being the evaluation technique on condition of that business conditions and business itself also change, the real option analysis fits for evaluation of a research and development that business conditions were opaque and it turns out that the businesses are highly flexible. Moreover, it turns out that it fits also for evaluation of a capital concentration type investment issue like power plants. (author)

  20. The community Noah land surface model with multiparameterization options (Noah-MP): 2. Evaluation over global river basins

    Yang, Zong-Liang; Niu, Guo-Yue; Mitchell, Kenneth E.; Chen, Fei; Ek, Michael B.; Barlage, Michael; Longuevergne, Laurent; Manning, Kevin; Niyogi, Dev; Tewari, Mukul; Xia, Youlong

    2011-01-01

    The augmented Noah land surface model described in the first part of the two-part series was evaluated here over global river basins. Across various climate zones, global-scale tests can reveal a model's weaknesses and strengths that a local

  1. Process to identify and evaluate restoration options

    Strand, J.; Senner, S.; Weiner, A.; Rabinowitch, S.; Brodersen, M.; Rice, K.; Klinge, K.; MacMullin, S.; Yender, R.; Thompson, R.

    1993-01-01

    The restoration planning process has yielded a number of possible alternatives for restoring resources and services injured by the Exxon Valdez oil spill. They were developed by resource managers, scientists, and the public, taking into consideration the results of damage assessment and restoration studies and information from the scientific literature. The alternatives thus far identified include no action natural recovery, management of human uses, manipulation of resources, habitat protection and acquisition, acquisition of equivalent resources, and combinations of the above. Each alternative consists of a different mix of resource- or service-specific restoration options. To decide whether it was appropriate to spend restoration funds on a particular resource or service, first criteria had to be developed that evaluated available evidence for consequential injury and the adequacy and rate of natural recovery. Then, recognizing the range of effective restoration options, a second set of criteria was applied to determine which restoration options were the most beneficial. These criteria included technical feasibility, potential to improve the rate or degree of recovery, the relationship of expected costs to benefits, cost effectiveness, and the potential to restore the ecosystem as a whole. The restoration options considered to be most beneficial will be grouped together in several or more of the above alternatives and presented in a draft restoration plan. They will be further evaluated in a companion draft environmental impact statement

  2. 48 CFR 552.217-70 - Evaluation of Options.

    2010-10-01

    ... 48 Federal Acquisition Regulations System 4 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Evaluation of Options. 552... Evaluation of Options. As prescribed in 517.208(a), insert the following provision: Evaluation of Options... period price. When option year pricing is based on a formula (e.g., changes in the Producer Price Index...

  3. A hybrid modeling approach for option pricing

    Hajizadeh, Ehsan; Seifi, Abbas

    2011-11-01

    The complexity of option pricing has led many researchers to develop sophisticated models for such purposes. The commonly used Black-Scholes model suffers from a number of limitations. One of these limitations is the assumption that the underlying probability distribution is lognormal and this is so controversial. We propose a couple of hybrid models to reduce these limitations and enhance the ability of option pricing. The key input to option pricing model is volatility. In this paper, we use three popular GARCH type model for estimating volatility. Then, we develop two non-parametric models based on neural networks and neuro-fuzzy networks to price call options for S&P 500 index. We compare the results with those of Black-Scholes model and show that both neural network and neuro-fuzzy network models outperform Black-Scholes model. Furthermore, comparing the neural network and neuro-fuzzy approaches, we observe that for at-the-money options, neural network model performs better and for both in-the-money and an out-of-the money option, neuro-fuzzy model provides better results.

  4. The use of multi-criteria decision making models in evaluating anesthesia method options in circumcision surgery.

    Hancerliogullari, Gulsah; Hancerliogullari, Kadir Oymen; Koksalmis, Emrah

    2017-01-23

    Determining the most suitable anesthesia method for circumcision surgery plays a fundamental role in pediatric surgery. This study is aimed to present pediatric surgeons' perspective on the relative importance of the criteria for selecting anesthesia method for circumcision surgery by utilizing the multi-criteria decision making methods. Fuzzy set theory offers a useful tool for transforming linguistic terms into numerical assessments. Since the evaluation of anesthesia methods requires linguistic terms, we utilize the fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and fuzzy Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS). Both mathematical decision-making methods are originated from individual judgements for qualitative factors utilizing the pair-wise comparison matrix. Our model uses four main criteria, eight sub-criteria as well as three alternatives. To assess the relative priorities, an online questionnaire was completed by three experts, pediatric surgeons, who had experience with circumcision surgery. Discussion of the results with the experts indicates that time-related factors are the most important criteria, followed by psychology, convenience and duration. Moreover, general anesthesia with penile block for circumcision surgery is the preferred choice of anesthesia compared to general anesthesia without penile block, which has a greater priority compared to local anesthesia under the discussed main-criteria and sub-criteria. The results presented in this study highlight the need to integrate surgeons' criteria into the decision making process for selecting anesthesia methods. This is the first study in which multi-criteria decision making tools, specifically fuzzy AHP and fuzzy TOPSIS, are used to evaluate anesthesia methods for a pediatric surgical procedure.

  5. Evaluation of dairy effluent management options using multiple criteria analysis.

    Hajkowicz, Stefan A; Wheeler, Sarah A

    2008-04-01

    This article describes how options for managing dairy effluent on the Lower Murray River in South Australia were evaluated using multiple criteria analysis (MCA). Multiple criteria analysis is a framework for combining multiple environmental, social, and economic objectives in policy decisions. At the time of the study, dairy irrigation in the region was based on flood irrigation which involved returning effluent to the river. The returned water contained nutrients, salts, and microbial contaminants leading to environmental, human health, and tourism impacts. In this study MCA was used to evaluate 11 options against 6 criteria for managing dairy effluent problems. Of the 11 options, the MCA model selected partial rehabilitation of dairy paddocks with the conversion of remaining land to other agriculture. Soon after, the South Australian Government adopted this course of action and is now providing incentives for dairy farmers in the region to upgrade irrigation infrastructure and/or enter alternative industries.

  6. Applying Real Options for Evaluating Investments in ERP Systems

    Nakagane, Jun; Sekozawa, Teruji

    This paper intends to verify effectiveness of real options approach for evaluating investments in Enterprise Resource Planning systems (ERP) and proves how important it is to disclose shadow options potentially embedded in ERP investment. The net present value (NPV) method is principally adopted to evaluate the value of ERP. However, the NPV method assumes no uncertainties exist in the object. It doesn't satisfy the current business circumstances which are filled with dynamic issues. Since the 1990s the effectiveness of option pricing models for Information System (IS) investment to solve issues in the NPV method has been discussed in the IS literature. This paper presents 3 business cases to review the practical advantages of such techniques for IS investments, especially ERP investments. The first case is EDI development. We evaluate the project by a new approach with lighting one of shadow options, EDI implementation. In the second case we reveal an ERP investment has an “expanding option” in a case of eliminating redundancy. The third case describes an option to contract which is deliberately slotted in ERP development to prepare transferring a manufacturing facility.

  7. 48 CFR 52.217-5 - Evaluation of Options.

    2010-10-01

    ... 48 Federal Acquisition Regulations System 2 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Evaluation of Options. 52....217-5 Evaluation of Options. As prescribed in 17.208(c), insert a provision substantially the same as the following: Evaluation of Options (JUL 1990) Except when it is determined in accordance with FAR 17...

  8. Multi-criteria Evaluation of Nuclear Option

    Feretic, D.; Tomsic, Z.; Jaksic, D.

    2002-01-01

    When evaluating power system expansion scenarios there is a need to take into consideration a range of measurable and non-measurable impacts. Measurable impacts are fixed and variable production costs and, recently, external costs. Non-measurable impacts include public attitude to certain energy technology and investor's risk in achieving the expected profit (regulatory and political risk). Public attitude has a large and sometimes essential impact on decision-making. It is mostly associated with the expected environmental impact of a potential power plant and can be divided in rational and non-rational part. Rational part, which is in proportion with scientifically approved environmental impact of energy options (inversely proportional to external costs) is relatively small, while the other, non-rational category which is not proportional with the actual environmental impact (especially in the case of nuclear power), is much larger. Investor's risk in achieving the expected profit is mostly associated with possible changes of domestic or foreign regulations or policy that can influence power plant operation and long-term fuel availability and price. Two factors that affect decision-making should be distinguished. The first is the total impact of certain non-measurable factor and the other is the impact of certain technology on that non-measurable factor like public impact, for example. The objective of multi-criteria evaluation, after weighting and quantification of all impacts is to determine the most acceptable power system expansion option. In the article a simplified quantification will be made of measurable (investment costs, annual maintenance costs, fuel price, indirect costs of power plants) and non-measurable (public attitude, investor's risk) elements that affect future investment decision. For that purpose possible relative values of non-measurable impacts of different options will be determined (their weights and impact on relative increase of annual

  9. Nuclear Fuel Cycle Evaluation and Real Options

    L. Havlíček

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available The first part of this paper describes the nuclear fuel cycle. It is divided into three parts. The first part, called Front-End, covers all activities connected with fuel procurement and fabrication. The middle part of the cycle includes fuel reload design activities and the operation of the fuel in the reactor. Back-End comprises all activities ensuring safe separation of spent fuel and radioactive waste from the environment. The individual stages of the fuel cycle are strongly interrelated. Overall economic optimization is very difficult. Generally, NPV is used for an economic evaluation in the nuclear fuel cycle. However the high volatility of uranium prices in the Front-End, and the large uncertainty of both economic and technical parameters in the Back-End, make the use of NPV difficult. The real option method is able to evaluate the value added by flexibility of decision making by a company under conditions of uncertainty. The possibility of applying this method to the nuclear fuel cycle evaluation is studied. 

  10. 48 CFR 1552.217-70 - Evaluation of contract options.

    2010-10-01

    ... options. 1552.217-70 Section 1552.217-70 Federal Acquisition Regulations System ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION... 1552.217-70 Evaluation of contract options. As prescribed in 1517.208(a), insert the following solicitation provision in Requests for Proposals when the solicitation contains options. Evaluation of Contract...

  11. Evaluating adaptation options for urban flooding based on new high-end emission scenario regional climate model simulations

    Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten; Leonardsen, L.; Madsen, Henrik

    2015-01-01

    Climate change adaptation studies on urban flooding are often based on a model chain approach from climate forcing scenarios to analysis of adaptation measures. Previous analyses of climate change impacts in Copenhagen, Denmark, were supplemented by 2 high-end scenario simulations. These include...... a regional climate model projection forced to a global temperature increase of 6 degrees C in 2100 as well as a projection based on a high radiative forcing scenario (RCP8.5). With these scenarios, projected impacts of extreme precipitation increase significantly. For extreme sea surges, the impacts do...... by almost 4 and 8 times the current EAD for the RCP8.5 and 6 degrees C scenario, respectively. For both hazards, business-as-usual is not a possible scenario, since even in the absence of policy-driven changes, significant autonomous adaptation is likely to occur. Copenhagen has developed an adaptation plan...

  12. Evaluation of Foreign Investment in Power Plants using Real Options

    Kato, Moritoshi; Zhou, Yicheng

    This paper proposes new methods for evaluating foreign investment in power plants under market uncertainty using a real options approach. We suppose a thermal power plant project in a deregulated electricity market. One of our proposed methods is that we calculate the cash flow generated by the project in a reference year using actual market data to incorporate periodic characteristics of energy prices into a yearly cash flow model. We make the stochastic yearly cash flow model with the initial value which is the cash flow in the reference year, and certain trend and volatility. Then we calculate the real options value (ROV) of the project which has abandonment options using the yearly cash flow model. Another our proposed method is that we evaluate foreign currency/domestic currency exchange rate risk by representing ROV in foreign currency as yearly pay off and exchanging it to ROV in domestic currency using a stochastic exchange rate model. We analyze the effect of the heat rate and operation and maintenance costs of the power plant on ROV, and evaluate exchange rate risk through numerical examples. Our proposed method will be useful for the risk management of foreign investment in power plants.

  13. Incentivising selective fishing under catch quotas: using an FCube modelling approach to evaluate management options for North Sea mixed fisheries

    Condie, Harriet M.; Dolder, Paul J.; Catchpole, Thomas L.

    Reforms of EU Common Fisheries Policy will make fundamental changes to European fisheries management, including a discard ban with catch quotas for regulated species and management to achieve MSY. We evaluate the impact of these changes on revenue of North Sea demersal finfish fleets and fish...... stocks. With no change in behaviour, revenue is reduced by a mean of 31% compared to current management in the first year, but partly recovers by year 3, as fishing mortality is reduced and stocks increase. There are large differences in revenue changes between fleets, varying from -99% to +36...... in revenue create a strong incentive to avoid catching the limiting species, particularly if it is not a primary target. Selectivity changes that avoid 30% cod catch reduced the economic impact for some fleets in moving to catch quotas. Increased flexibility will therefore be important in maintaining...

  14. Multivariate Option Pricing Using Dynamic Copula Models

    van den Goorbergh, R.W.J.; Genest, C.; Werker, B.J.M.

    2003-01-01

    This paper examines the behavior of multivariate option prices in the presence of association between the underlying assets.Parametric families of copulas offering various alternatives to the normal dependence structure are used to model this association, which is explicitly assumed to vary over

  15. The option to expand a project: its assessment with the binomial options pricing model

    Salvador Cruz Rambaud

    Full Text Available Traditional methods of investment appraisal, like the Net Present Value, are not able to include the value of the operational flexibility of the project. In this paper, real options, and more specifically the option to expand, are assumed to be included in the project information in addition to the expected cash flows. Thus, to calculate the total value of the project, we are going to apply the methodology of the Net Present Value to the different scenarios derived from the existence of the real option to expand. Taking into account the analogy between real and financial options, the value of including an option to expand is explored by using the binomial options pricing model. In this way, estimating the value of the option to expand is a tool which facilitates the control of the uncertainty element implicit in the project. Keywords: Real options, Option to expand, Binomial options pricing model, Investment project appraisal

  16. 48 CFR 52.217-3 - Evaluation Exclusive of Options.

    2010-10-01

    ... Options. 52.217-3 Section 52.217-3 Federal Acquisition Regulations System FEDERAL ACQUISITION REGULATION....217-3 Evaluation Exclusive of Options. As prescribed in 17.208(a), insert a provision substantially the same as the following in solicitations when the solicitation includes an option clause and does...

  17. Phytoremediation options for radioactively contaminated sites evaluated

    Vandenhove, Hildegarde

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: ► We present an overview of the most important site and environmental radioactive contamination problems encountered. ► The potential role of different phytomanagement options is discussed and illustrated with examples. ► The phytomanagement options considered are: soil phytoextraction, rhizofiltration, wetlands and alternative land use. - Abstract: The application of nuclear energy and the use of radionuclides for industrial, medical and research purposes have caused significant contamination of certain sites and their environment, which could result in health problems for several centuries if nothing is undertaken to remedy these situations. Except for the immediate environment of the facility, where decontamination activities may be feasible and affordable, the contamination often extents over a vast area and decontamination would be costly and could result in vast amounts of waste. Therefore, more realistic yet efficient remediation options should be searched for of which phytomanagement is among the potential options. A number of phytomanagement approaches will be discussed

  18. Mouse-tracking evidence for parallel anticipatory option evaluation.

    Cranford, Edward A; Moss, Jarrod

    2017-12-23

    In fast-paced, dynamic tasks, the ability to anticipate the future outcome of a sequence of events is crucial to quickly selecting an appropriate course of action among multiple alternative options. There are two classes of theories that describe how anticipation occurs. Serial theories assume options are generated and evaluated one at a time, in order of quality, whereas parallel theories assume simultaneous generation and evaluation. The present research examined the option evaluation process during a task designed to be analogous to prior anticipation tasks, but within the domain of narrative text comprehension. Prior research has relied on indirect, off-line measurement of the option evaluation process during anticipation tasks. Because the movement of the hand can provide a window into underlying cognitive processes, online metrics such as continuous mouse tracking provide more fine-grained measurements of cognitive processing as it occurs in real time. In this study, participants listened to three-sentence stories and predicted the protagonists' final action by moving a mouse toward one of three possible options. Each story was presented with either one (control condition) or two (distractor condition) plausible ending options. Results seem most consistent with a parallel option evaluation process because initial mouse trajectories deviated further from the best option in the distractor condition compared to the control condition. It is difficult to completely rule out all possible serial processing accounts, although the results do place constraints on the time frame in which a serial processing explanation must operate.

  19. Assessing the Option to Abandon an Investment Project by the Binomial Options Pricing Model

    Salvador Cruz Rambaud

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Usually, traditional methods for investment project appraisal such as the net present value (hereinafter NPV do not incorporate in their values the operational flexibility offered by including a real option included in the project. In this paper, real options, and more specifically the option to abandon, are analysed as a complement to cash flow sequence which quantifies the project. In this way, by considering the existing analogy with financial options, a mathematical expression is derived by using the binomial options pricing model. This methodology provides the value of the option to abandon the project within one, two, and in general n periods. Therefore, this paper aims to be a useful tool in determining the value of the option to abandon according to its residual value, thus making easier the control of the uncertainty element within the project.

  20. Evaluating nuclear power as the next baseload generation option

    Jackson, K.J.; Sanford, M.O.

    1992-01-01

    Numerous factors must be taken into account when planning to meet baseload generating needs of the next century. Examining nuclear power as an option to meet these needs offers significant challenges with respect to evaluating and managing the business risks. This paper describes one mechanism to accomplish this while continuing to participate in industry activities targeted at advancing the nuclear option. One possible model of pursuing high-risk, long-term projects, like nuclear power, is to spread these risks among the project participants and for each organization to commit slowly. With this model of progressive engagement, participants may invest in early information gathering with the objective of uncertainty reduction at preliminary stages in the project, before large investments must be made. For nuclear power, a partnership between a utility (or utility group) and a supplier team may well be the best means of implementing such a model. A partnership also provides opportunity to develop the long-term relationships within the industry which are imperative

  1. Evaluation of the confinement option for LMRs

    Himes, D.A.; Stepnewski, D.D.; Franz, G.R.

    1985-12-01

    The coolant in liquid metal cooled reactors operates at low pressures and therefore contains relatively little stored energy compared to LWR systems. This presents the possibility of using a more conventional building for containment coupled with a confinement system which vents the internal volume of the building through a filter/scrubber. The confinement system would be designed to keep the internal pressure in the containment near atmospheric thereby minimizing unfiltered leakage. The principal benefits of such an arrangement would be lower capital cost and less stringent leaktightness requirements permitting simpler and less disruptive testing. In conclusion, the confinement system assumed here would reduce consequences to the public of an LMR HCDA to acceptable levels. However control room doses are unacceptable due to the noble gas concentration inside the control room. A confinement system is therefore a viable design option for LMR's provided means are included for keeping noble gases out of the control room. Such means are readily available including, for example, selectable remote air intakes, an exhaust stack, or a noble gas filter. Probably the most satisfactory alternative would be a large cryogenic filter on the confinement system exhaust

  2. Comparative evaluation of radioactive waste management options. Final report

    Appel, D.; Kreusch, J.; Neumann, W.

    2001-05-01

    A comprehensive presentation of the various radioactive waste options under debate has not been made so far, let alone a comparative evaluation of the options with respect to their substantiated or assumed advantages or drawbacks. However, any appropriate discussion about the pros and cons of the specific options for final decision making has to be based on a comprehensive knowledge base drawn from profound comparative evaluation of essential options. Therefore, the study reported in this publication was to serve three major purposes: Presentation of the conditions and waste management policies and approaches in selected countries, in order to compile information about the various policy goals and the full scope of argumentation, as well as the range of individual arguments used for or against specific options. - Derivation of a methodology for evaluation, including development of criteria for a comparative and qualitative evaluation of options. - Identification of possible implications for a waste management strategy for Germany, derived from the results of the comparative evaluation and the examination of the reasonings and argumentation used in the various countries. (orig./CB) [de

  3. Evaluating Options for Improving California's Drought Resilience

    Ray, P. A.; Schwarz, A.; Wi, S.; Correa, M.; Brown, C.

    2015-12-01

    Through a unique collaborative arrangement, the University of Massachusetts (UMass) and the California Department of Water Resources (DWR) have together performed a baseline climate change analysis of the California state (State Water Project) and federal (Central Valley Project) water systems. The first step in the baseline analysis was development of an improved basinwide hydrologic model covering a large area of California including all major tributaries to the state and federal water systems. The CalLite modeling system used by DWR for planning purposes allowed simulation of the system of reservoirs, rivers, control points, and deliveries which are then used to create performance metrics that quantify a wide range of system characteristics including water deliveries, water quality, and environmental/ecological factors. A baseline climate stress test was conducted to identify current vulnerabilities to climate change through the linking of the modeling chain with Decision Scaling concepts through the UMass bottom-up climate stress-testing algorithm. This procedure allowed the first comprehensive climate stress analysis of the California state and federal water systems not constrained by observed historical variability and wet-dry year sequences. A forward-looking drought vulnerability and adaptation assessment of the water systems based on this workflow is ongoing and preliminary results will be presented. Presentation of results will include discussion of the collaborative arrangement between DWR and UMass, which is instrumental to both the success of the research and the education of policy makers.

  4. Parking taxes : evaluating options and impacts

    Litman, T.A.

    2006-01-01

    In addition to encouraging the use of alternative modes of transport, parking taxes can help to reduce congestion, air pollution, and urban sprawl. Various types of parking taxes were evaluated in this paper, as well as their impacts on parking supply, prices and travel patterns. Examples of various parking tax programs in major cities in Canada, Europe, the United States and Australia were presented. Parking tax programs were divided into 2 main categories: (1) per-space parking levies which distribute cost burdens and encourage property owners to manage parking supply more efficiently and (2) commercial parking taxes on parking rental transactions which discourage the pricing of parking and concentrate impacts in limited areas. Worksite parking levies were discussed, as well stormwater fees and employee parking as a taxable benefit. Typical parking facility financial costs were reviewed and best practices for structuring and implementing parking taxes to increase public acceptability were outlined. It was suggested that the tax base should be broad and well-defined. Local governments should increase parking prices to market rates before imposing special parking taxes, and taxes and fees should be structured to avoid undesirable land use. Parking tax reforms should be part of an overall parking and mobility management program. Stakeholders should be consulted to insure that regulations, administrative procedures and enforcement policies are efficient and fair. The establishment of an evaluation program to determine tax impacts on parking supply and pricing, economic activity, traffic and spillover problems was also recommended. 42 refs., 4 tabs., 1 fig

  5. An Economic Evaluation on Replacement Plan for Aged Thermal Power Plants through a Real Option Approach

    Kato, Moritoshi; Zhou, Yicheng

    This paper presents a novel method to evaluate replacement plan for aged thermal power plants under uncertain circumstances through a real option approach. The most economical plan is selected among the three options: an option to operate an existing oil-fired thermal plant, an option to mothball it, and an option to abandon it and to construct an advanced gas combined cycle power plant (ACC) at the same time. Basic ideas of our model are: we use quadranomial approach in order to evaluate an option value consisted by two different uncertain assets; we consider cash flow with a dividend in order to reflect conditions of an aged oil-fired thermal plant and use the sequential compound option approach; we evaluate replacement time using quadranomial decision tree taking into account the options. We also analyze value and time of replacement using numerical examples. Our proposed method will be practically used for generation planning. For example it is possible to make priority quantitatively in replacements of aged thermal power plants by real option values. The target year of replacement may be set as a year when cumulative probability of replacement becomes over certain level.

  6. A CDO option market model on standardized CDS index tranches

    Dorn, Jochen

    We provide a market model which implies a dynamic for standardized CDS index tranche spreads. This model is useful for pricing options on tranches with future Issue Dates as well as for modeling emerging options on struc- tured credit derivatives. With the upcoming regulation of the CDS market...... in perspective, the model presented here is also an attempt to face the e ects on pricing approaches provoked by an eventual Clearing Chamber . It becomes also possible to calibrate Index Tranche Options with bespoke tenors/tranche subordination to market data obtained by more liquid Index Tranche Options...

  7. Identification and evaluation of alternative radioactive waste categorisation options

    Maul, P.R.; Smith, G.M.; Stenhouse, M.J.; Watkins, B.M.

    1996-09-01

    The purpose of the research described in this report was to consider the options for future UK radioactive waste categorisation, to evaluate the advantages and disadvantages of each option and, as a result, to identify any which might be viable practical alternatives to the current arrangements. The review process included meetings with large and small waste producers, a wider consultation exercise using a questionnaire, a presentation to RWMAC, and discussion with representatives of the UK regulators. These consultations provided the basis for the formulation and evaluation of a number of alternative waste categorisation schemes. (UK)

  8. Option valuation with the simplified component GARCH model

    Dziubinski, Matt P.

    We introduce the Simplified Component GARCH (SC-GARCH) option pricing model, show and discuss sufficient conditions for non-negativity of the conditional variance, apply it to low-frequency and high-frequency financial data, and consider the option valuation, comparing the model performance...

  9. 76 FR 13404 - Cancer Therapy Evaluation Program Intellectual Property Option to Collaborator

    2011-03-11

    ... Option to Collaborator AGENCY: National Institutes of Health, HHS. ACTION: Notice. SUMMARY: The National... Cancer Therapy Evaluation Program's Intellectual Property Option to Collaborator. [[Page 13405... Evaluation Program (CTEP)'s Intellectual Property Option to Collaborator. The proposed revision represents a...

  10. ENVI Model Development for Korean Nuclear Spent Fuel Options Analysis

    Chang, Sunyoung; Jeong, Yon Hong; Han, Jae-Jun; Lee, Aeri; Hwang, Yong-Soo [Korea Institute of Nuclear Nonproliferation and Control, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-10-15

    The disposal facility of the spent nuclear fuel will be operated from 2051. This paper presents the ENVI code developed by GoldSim Software to simulate options for managing spent nuclear fuel (SNF) in South Korea. The ENVI is a simulator to allow decision-makers to assist to evaluate the performance for spent nuclear fuel management. The multiple options for managing the spent nuclear fuel including the storage and transportation are investigated into interim storage, permanent disposal in geological repositories and overseas and domestic reprocessing. The ENVI code uses the GoldSim software to simulate the logistics of the associated activities. The result by the ENVI model not only produces the total cost to compare among the multiple options but also predict the sizes and timings of different facilities required. In order to decide the policy for spent nuclear management this purpose of this paper is to draw the optimum management plan to solve the nuclear spent fuel issue in the economical aspects. This paper is focused on the development of the ENVI's logic and calculations to simulate four options(No Reprocessing, Overseas Reprocessing, Domestic Reprocessing, and Overseas and Domestic Reprocessing) for managing the spent nuclear fuel in South Korea. The time history of the spent nuclear fuel produced from both the existing and future NPP's can be predicted, based on the Goldsim software made available very user friendly model. The simulation result will be used to suggest the strategic plans for the spent nuclear fuel management.

  11. ENVI Model Development for Korean Nuclear Spent Fuel Options Analysis

    Chang, Sunyoung; Jeong, Yon Hong; Han, Jae-Jun; Lee, Aeri; Hwang, Yong-Soo

    2015-01-01

    The disposal facility of the spent nuclear fuel will be operated from 2051. This paper presents the ENVI code developed by GoldSim Software to simulate options for managing spent nuclear fuel (SNF) in South Korea. The ENVI is a simulator to allow decision-makers to assist to evaluate the performance for spent nuclear fuel management. The multiple options for managing the spent nuclear fuel including the storage and transportation are investigated into interim storage, permanent disposal in geological repositories and overseas and domestic reprocessing. The ENVI code uses the GoldSim software to simulate the logistics of the associated activities. The result by the ENVI model not only produces the total cost to compare among the multiple options but also predict the sizes and timings of different facilities required. In order to decide the policy for spent nuclear management this purpose of this paper is to draw the optimum management plan to solve the nuclear spent fuel issue in the economical aspects. This paper is focused on the development of the ENVI's logic and calculations to simulate four options(No Reprocessing, Overseas Reprocessing, Domestic Reprocessing, and Overseas and Domestic Reprocessing) for managing the spent nuclear fuel in South Korea. The time history of the spent nuclear fuel produced from both the existing and future NPP's can be predicted, based on the Goldsim software made available very user friendly model. The simulation result will be used to suggest the strategic plans for the spent nuclear fuel management

  12. Adaptation to climate change in agriculture: evaluation of options

    Dolan, A.H.; Smit, B.; Skinner, M.W.; Bradshaw, B.; Bryant, C.R.

    2001-01-01

    Adaptation was defined as the responses by stakeholders to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects to reduce vulnerability to adverse impacts or damage potential, or to realize opportunities associated with climate change. Planned policy initiatives representing change in the agricultural system were discussed in this report. An evaluation of adaptation options needed to be carried out before one could determine which adaptations should be promoted or implemented. The overall merit, suitability, utility or appropriateness of potential adaptation strategies or measures were examined. One interesting methodology was the Multiple Criteria Evaluation (MCE), which is designed to assess alternatives using more than one criterion. The criteria selected for this evaluation were: effectiveness, economic efficiency, flexibility, institutional compatibility, farmer implementation, and independent benefits. A selection of three adaptation options was made to better illustrate the utility of the evaluation framework., as follows: crop diversification, adoption of irrigation, and increase use of crop insurance. 122 refs., 6 tabs., 6 figs

  13. Multi-criteria evaluation for CHP system options

    Pilavachi, P.A.; Roumpeas, C.P.; Minett, S.; Afgan, N.H.

    2006-01-01

    Several Combined Heat and Power (CHP) system options have been considered for evaluation with respect to the end-user requirements. These included Internal Combustion Engines (Otto and Diesel), Gas Turbines, Steam Turbines and Combined Cycles covering a wide range of electrical output. Data have been obtained from literature and the CHP systems have been evaluated using different criteria such as overall efficiency, investment cost, fuel cost, electricity cost, heat cost, CO 2 production and footprint. A multi-criteria method is used with an agglomeration function based on the statistical evaluation of weight factors. The technical, economic and social aspects of each system have been evaluated in an integrated manner and the results have been compared by means of the Sustainability Index. Based on the above criteria and depending on the user requirements, the best CHP system options have been established

  14. On a Generalized Squared Gaussian Diffusion Model for Option Valuation

    Edeki S.O.

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available In financial mathematics, option pricing models are vital tools whose usefulness cannot be overemphasized. Modern approaches and modelling of financial derivatives are therefore required in option pricing and valuation settings. In this paper, we derive via the application of Ito lemma, a pricing model referred to as Generalized Squared Gaussian Diffusion Model (GSGDM for option pricing and valuation. Same approach can be considered via Stratonovich stochastic dynamics. We also show that the classical Black-Scholes, and the square root constant elasticity of variance models are special cases of the GSGDM. In addition, general solution of the GSGDM is obtained using modified variational iterative method (MVIM.

  15. A Consistent Pricing Model for Index Options and Volatility Derivatives

    Cont, Rama; Kokholm, Thomas

    observed properties of variance swap dynamics and allows for jumps in volatility and returns. An affine specification using L´evy processes as building blocks leads to analytically tractable pricing formulas for options on variance swaps as well as efficient numerical methods for pricing of European......We propose and study a flexible modeling framework for the joint dynamics of an index and a set of forward variance swap rates written on this index, allowing options on forward variance swaps and options on the underlying index to be priced consistently. Our model reproduces various empirically...... options on the underlying asset. The model has the convenient feature of decoupling the vanilla skews from spot/volatility correlations and allowing for different conditional correlations in large and small spot/volatility moves. We show that our model can simultaneously fit prices of European options...

  16. Methodology for the economic evaluation of cogeneration/desalination options: A user's manual

    1997-01-01

    The Methodology for the Economic Evaluation of Cogeneration/Desalination Options is suitable for economic evaluations and screening analyses of various desalination and energy source options. The methodology, based on the spreadsheet, includes simplified models of several types of nuclear/fossil power plants, nuclear/fossil heat sources, and both distillation and membrane desalination plants. Current cost and performance data have already been incorporated so that the spreadsheet can be quickly adapted to analyze a large variety of options with very little new input data required. The spreadsheet output includes the levelized cost of water and power, breakdowns of cost components, energy consumption and net saleable power for each selected option. Specific power plants can be modeled by adjustment of input data including design power, power cycle parameters and costs

  17. Bayesian Option Pricing Using Mixed Normal Heteroskedasticity Models

    Rombouts, Jeroen V.K.; Stentoft, Lars Peter

    While stochastic volatility models improve on the option pricing error when compared to the Black-Scholes-Merton model, mispricings remain. This paper uses mixed normal heteroskedasticity models to price options. Our model allows for significant negative skewness and time varying higher order...... moments of the risk neutral distribution. Parameter inference using Gibbs sampling is explained and we detail how to compute risk neutral predictive densities taking into account parameter uncertainty. When forecasting out-of-sample options on the S&P 500 index, substantial improvements are found compared...

  18. An options model for electric power markets

    Ghosh, Kanchan; Ramesh, V.C.

    1997-01-01

    The international electric utility industry is undergoing a radical transformation from an essentially regulated and monopolistic industry to an industry made uncertain with impending deregulation and the advent of competitive forces. This paper investigates the development of an options market for bulk power trading in a market setup while considering power system planning and operational constraints and/or requirements. In so doing it considers the different market based financial derivative instruments while can be used to trade electrical power in bulk and examines how established tools such as Optimal Power Flow (OPF) may be applied in helping to develop a price for bulk power transactions under a market based setup. (Author)

  19. DISPOSITION PATHS FOR ROCKY FLATS GLOVEBOXES: EVALUATING OPTIONS

    Lobdell, D.; Geimer, R.; Larsen, P.; Loveland, K.

    2003-01-01

    The Kaiser-Hill Company, LLC has the responsibility for closure activities at the Rocky Flats Environmental Technology Site (RFETS). One of the challenges faced for closure is the disposition of radiologically contaminated gloveboxes. Evaluation of the disposition options for gloveboxes included a detailed analysis of available treatment capabilities, disposal facilities, and lifecycle costs. The Kaiser-Hill Company, LLC followed several processes in determining how the gloveboxes would be managed for disposition. Currently, multiple disposition paths have been chosen to accommodate the needs of the varying styles and conditions of the gloveboxes, meet the needs of the decommissioning team, and to best manage lifecycle costs. Several challenges associated with developing a disposition path that addresses both the radiological and RCRA concerns as well as offering the most cost-effective solution were encountered. These challenges included meeting the radiological waste acceptance criteria of available disposal facilities, making a RCRA determination, evaluating treatment options and costs, addressing void requirements associated with disposal, and identifying packaging and transportation options. The varying disposal facility requirements affected disposition choices. Facility conditions that impacted decisions included radiological and chemical waste acceptance criteria, physical requirements, and measurement for payment options. The facility requirements also impacted onsite activities including management strategies, decontamination activities, and life-cycle cost

  20. Evaluation of design feature No.20 -- Ground support options

    Duan, F.

    2000-01-01

    Ground support options are primarily evaluated for emplacement drifts while ground support systems for non-emplacement openings such as access mains and ventilation drifts are not evaluated against LADS evaluation criteria in this report. Considerations include functional requirements for ground support, the use of a steel-lined system, and the feasibility of using an unlined ground support system principally with grouted rock bolts for permanent ground support. The feature evaluation also emphasizes the postclosure effects of ground support materials on waste isolation and the preclosure aspects such as durability, maintainability, constructibility, safety, engineering acceptability, and cost. This evaluation is to: (A) Review the existing analyses, reports, and studies regarding this design feature, and compile relevant information on performance characteristics. (B) Develop an appropriate evaluation approach for evaluating ground support options against evaluation criteria provided by the LADS team. (C) Evaluate ground support options not only for their preclosure performance in terms of drift stability, material durability, maintenance, constructibility, and cost, but also for their postclosure performance in terms of chemical effects of ground support materials (i.e., concrete, steel) on waste isolation and radionuclide transport. Specifically, the scope for ground support options evaluation include: (1) all steel-lined drifts (no cementitious materials), (2) unlined drifts with minimum cementitious materials (e.g., grout for rockbolts), and (3) concrete-lined drifts, with the focus on the postclosure acceptability evaluation. In addition, unlined drifts with zero cementitious materials (e.g., use of frictional bolts such as split sets, Swellex bolts) are briefly discussed. (D) Identify candidate ground support systems that have the potential to enhance the repository performance based on the feature evaluation. and (E) Provide conclusions and recommendations

  1. Option Pricing with Asymmetric Heteroskedastic Normal Mixture Models

    Rombouts, Jeroen V. K; Stentoft, Lars

    2015-01-01

    We propose an asymmetric GARCH in mean mixture model and provide a feasible method for option pricing within this general framework by deriving the appropriate risk neutral dynamics. We forecast the out-of-sample prices of a large sample of options on the S&P 500 index from January 2006 to December...

  2. On option pricing models in the presence of heavy tails

    Vellekoop, Michel; Nieuwenhuis, Hans

    2007-01-01

    We propose a modification of the option pricing framework derived by Borland which removes the possibilities for arbitrage within this framework. It turns out that such arbitrage possibilities arise due to an incorrect derivation of the martingale transformation in the non-Gaussian option models

  3. Biomass Power Generation Investment in China: A Real Options Evaluation

    Mingming Zhang

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes a real options model for evaluating the biomass power generation investment in China. The uncertainties in the market price of electricity, CO2 price and straw price are considered. Meanwhile the dynamic relationship between installed capacity and fuel cost, as well as the long-term reduction of subsidy are described. Two scenarios, i.e., with the carbon emission trading scheme existent and non-existent, respectively, is built to empirically analyze the investment of a 25-MW straw-based power generation project. The results show that investors should undertake the investment in 2030 under two scenarios. Investment values are 14,869,254.8 and 37,608,727 Chinese Yuan (RMB, respectively. The implementation of the carbon emission trading scheme theoretically helps improve investment value and advance the most likely optimal investment time. However, the current CO2 price is not sufficient to advance the most likely optimal investment time. The impacts of several factors, including subsidy policy, CO2 price, straw price, installed capacity, correlation structure and the validity period of investment, on the optimal investment strategy are also examined. It is suggested that governments take some measures, including increasing subsidy, setting the growth pattern of subsidy and establishing and perfecting a nationwide carbon trading market, to improve the investment environment and attract more investments.

  4. CAM Stochastic Volatility Model for Option Pricing

    Wanwan Huang

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The coupled additive and multiplicative (CAM noises model is a stochastic volatility model for derivative pricing. Unlike the other stochastic volatility models in the literature, the CAM model uses two Brownian motions, one multiplicative and one additive, to model the volatility process. We provide empirical evidence that suggests a nontrivial relationship between the kurtosis and skewness of asset prices and that the CAM model is able to capture this relationship, whereas the traditional stochastic volatility models cannot. We introduce a control variate method and Monte Carlo estimators for some of the sensitivities (Greeks of the model. We also derive an approximation for the characteristic function of the model.

  5. Hydrologic information needs for evaluating waste disposal options

    Huff, D.D.

    1983-01-01

    Before waste disposal options can be assessed, an objective or set of criteria for evaluation must be established. For hydrologists, the objective is to ensure that ground water and surface water do not become contaminated beyond acceptable limits as a result of waste disposal operations. The focus here is on the information required to quantify hydrologic transport of potential contaminants from the disposal site. It is important to recognize that the composition of the waste, its physical and chemical form, and the intended disposal methods (e.g., surface spreading, incineration, shallow land burial, or interment in a deep geologic repository) must either be specified a priori or set forth as specific options for evaluation, because these factors influence the nature of the hydrologic data needs. The hydrologic information needs of major importance are given together with specific measurable variables to be determined.

  6. 75 FR 17412 - Cancer Therapy Evaluation Program Intellectual Property Option to Collaborator

    2010-04-06

    ... Program Intellectual Property Option to Collaborator AGENCY: National Cancer Institute (NCI), National... Evaluation Program (CTEP) INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY OPTION. The proposed policy, if finalized, would establish... recommended Intellectual Property Option and Institution Notification if they wish to be considered for...

  7. Evaluating landscape options for corridor restoration between giant panda reserves.

    Fang Wang

    Full Text Available The establishment of corridors can offset the negative effects of habitat fragmentation by connecting isolated habitat patches. However, the practical value of corridor planning is minimal if corridor identification is not based on reliable quantitative information about species-environment relationships. An example of this need for quantitative information is planning for giant panda conservation. Although the species has been the focus of intense conservation efforts for decades, most corridor projects remain hypothetical due to the lack of reliable quantitative researches at an appropriate spatial scale. In this paper, we evaluated a framework for giant panda forest corridor planning. We linked our field survey data with satellite imagery, and conducted species occupancy modelling to examine the habitat use of giant panda within the potential corridor area. We then conducted least-cost and circuit models to identify potential paths of dispersal across the landscape, and compared the predicted cost under current conditions and alternative conservation management options considered during corridor planning. We found that due to giant panda's association with areas of low elevation and flat terrain, human infrastructures in the same area have resulted in corridor fragmentation. We then identified areas with high potential to function as movement corridors, and our analysis of alternative conservation scenarios showed that both forest/bamboo restoration and automobile tunnel construction would significantly improve the effectiveness of corridor, while residence relocation would not significantly improve corridor effectiveness in comparison with the current condition. The framework has general value in any conservation activities that anticipate improving habitat connectivity in human modified landscapes. Specifically, our study suggested that, in this landscape, automobile tunnels are the best means to remove current barriers to giant panda

  8. Commodity Alliance Model – An Option for Advancing Private and ...

    Commodity Alliance Model – An Option for Advancing Private and Commercial ... that ensure adequate value addition and ultimate remunerative price for farmers' ... and integrating them in terms of fair price determination, information flow and ...

  9. A Consistent Pricing Model for Index Options and Volatility Derivatives

    Kokholm, Thomas

    to be priced consistently, while allowing for jumps in volatility and returns. An affine specification using Lévy processes as building blocks leads to analytically tractable pricing formulas for volatility derivatives, such as VIX options, as well as efficient numerical methods for pricing of European options...... on the underlying asset. The model has the convenient feature of decoupling the vanilla skews from spot/volatility correlations and allowing for different conditional correlations in large and small spot/volatility moves. We show that our model can simultaneously fit prices of European options on S&P 500 across...

  10. A Consistent Pricing Model for Index Options and Volatility Derivatives

    Cont, Rama; Kokholm, Thomas

    2013-01-01

    to be priced consistently, while allowing for jumps in volatility and returns. An affine specification using Lévy processes as building blocks leads to analytically tractable pricing formulas for volatility derivatives, such as VIX options, as well as efficient numerical methods for pricing of European options...... on the underlying asset. The model has the convenient feature of decoupling the vanilla skews from spot/volatility correlations and allowing for different conditional correlations in large and small spot/volatility moves. We show that our model can simultaneously fit prices of European options on S&P 500 across...

  11. Valuation of exploration and production assets. An overview of real options models

    Dias, Marco Antonio Guimaraes

    2004-01-01

    This paper presents a set of selected real options models to evaluate investments in petroleum exploration and production (E and P) under market and technical uncertainties. First are presented some simple examples to develop the intuition about concepts like option value and optimal option exercise, comparing them with the concepts from the traditional net present value (NPV) criteria. Next, the classical model of Paddock, Siegel and Smith is presented, including a discussion on the practical values for the input parameters. The modeling of oil price uncertainty is presented by comparing some alternative stochastic processes. Other E and P applications discussed here are the selection of mutually exclusive alternatives under uncertainty, the wildcat drilling decision, the appraisal investment decisions, and the analysis of option to expand the production through optional wells

  12. Economic Evaluation for Energy Business Using Real Options Pricing Method

    Yun, W.C. [Korea Energy Economics Institute, Euiwang (Korea)

    2001-11-01

    Recently, facing the new era of restructuring, privatization, and liberalization the energy industry in the world is changing rapidly, and thus the uncertain factors tend to increase. This would imply that energy-related business is now confronted with new market risks as well as the simple price risks. The traditional investment valuation method using the concept of net present value (NPV) or internal rate of revenue (IRR) might not incorporate the managerial alternatives which enable managers to respond flexibly to the changes in business environment. This study pointed out the problems of the traditional discounted cash flow (DCF) method when evaluating a certain capital investment in energy industry. As an alternative, the real option pricing method (ROPM) was proposed, which is widely adopted in the field of profit projection for the venture business. In addition, when applying to energy sector the feasibility of ROPM was discussed, and the frameworks and major results of previous related studies were described. For those using the ROPM in real business, I explained the detailed procedures and solutions of ROPM, and introduced the log-transformed binomial model which provides a more efficient solution. In order to verify the usefulness of the ROPM, this study performed an empirical analysis for a virtual construction and operation project of power plant. And, the results from the ROPM was compared to those from the traditional DCF method. Based on the empirical results, the values of various investment opportunities were shown to be high. Therefore, the project not justified in terms of traditional DCF would turn into the project with a positive gross project value, properly reflecting managerial flexibilities inherent in the original project. (author). 58 refs., 32 figs., 33 tabs.

  13. Bayesian Option Pricing using Mixed Normal Heteroskedasticity Models

    Rombouts, Jeroen; Stentoft, Lars

    2014-01-01

    Option pricing using mixed normal heteroscedasticity models is considered. It is explained how to perform inference and price options in a Bayesian framework. The approach allows to easily compute risk neutral predictive price densities which take into account parameter uncertainty....... In an application to the S&P 500 index, classical and Bayesian inference is performed on the mixture model using the available return data. Comparing the ML estimates and posterior moments small differences are found. When pricing a rich sample of options on the index, both methods yield similar pricing errors...... measured in dollar and implied standard deviation losses, and it turns out that the impact of parameter uncertainty is minor. Therefore, when it comes to option pricing where large amounts of data are available, the choice of the inference method is unimportant. The results are robust to different...

  14. Development of real options model for nuclear power plants

    Ono, Kenji

    2004-01-01

    As the Japanese electricity market is deregulated, it becomes more important for electric utilities to recognize their financial risks and to adopt strategic and scientific decision making methodology. We have developed two models for valuation of Japanese nuclear power plants to support utilities' decision making. One is a net present value (NPV) model using discounted cash flow analysis method. Another is a real options model. This model is based on strict financial technology theory and can calculate value of early retirement, life extension and new unit addition options of nuclear units under electricity price uncertainty. This can also derive an optimal period for retirement, life extension and new unit addition. (author)

  15. A Jump-Diffusion Model for Option Pricing

    S. G. Kou

    2002-01-01

    Brownian motion and normal distribution have been widely used in the Black--Scholes option-pricing framework to model the return of assets. However, two puzzles emerge from many empirical investigations: the leptokurtic feature that the return distribution of assets may have a higher peak and two (asymmetric) heavier tails than those of the normal distribution, and an empirical phenomenon called "volatility smile" in option markets. To incorporate both of them and to strike a balance between ...

  16. ECONOMIC EVALUATION OF CO2 STORAGE AND SINK ENHANCEMENT OPTIONS

    Bert Bock; Richard Rhudy; Howard Herzog; Michael Klett; John Davison; Danial G. De La Torre Ugarte; Dale Simbeck

    2003-02-01

    This project developed life-cycle costs for the major technologies and practices under development for CO{sub 2} storage and sink enhancement. The technologies evaluated included options for storing captured CO{sub 2} in active oil reservoirs, depleted oil and gas reservoirs, deep aquifers, coal beds, and oceans, as well as the enhancement of carbon sequestration in forests and croplands. The capture costs for a nominal 500 MW{sub e} integrated gasification combined cycle plant from an earlier study were combined with the storage costs from this study to allow comparison among capture and storage approaches as well as sink enhancements.

  17. Option Pricing with Asymmetric Heteroskedastic Normal Mixture Models

    Rombouts, Jeroen V.K.; Stentoft, Lars

    This paper uses asymmetric heteroskedastic normal mixture models to fit return data and to price options. The models can be estimated straightforwardly by maximum likelihood, have high statistical fit when used on S&P 500 index return data, and allow for substantial negative skewness and time...... varying higher order moments of the risk neutral distribution. When forecasting out-of-sample a large set of index options between 1996 and 2009, substantial improvements are found compared to several benchmark models in terms of dollar losses and the ability to explain the smirk in implied volatilities...

  18. Antenatal Hydronephrosis: Differential Diagnosis, Evaluation, and Treatment Options

    Herndon, C.D. Anthony

    2006-01-01

    The diagnosis, evaluation and management of antenatal hydronephrosis has undergone a two stage paradigm shift since the advent of prenatal ultrasonography in the early 1980s. Initially the identification of a large number of asymptomatic infants appeared to afford the surgeon the opportunity for preemptive intervention. However, it has now become apparent that antenatal hydronephrosis (AH) is far more difficult to interpret thanoriginally perceived. The initial enthusiasm for surgery has now been replaced by a much more conservative approach to ureteropelvic junction(UPJ) obstruction, multi-cystic dysplastic kidney(MCDK), vesicoureteral reflux and the non-refluxing megaureter. This review will highlight the postnatal evaluation of AH and include an overview of the Society for Fetal Urology grading system for hydronephrosis. The differential diagnosis and treatment options for UPJ obstruction, vesicoureteral reflux, MCDK, duplication anomalies, megaureter, and posterior urethral valves will be discussed. PMID:17619702

  19. Confidence limits for data mining models of options prices

    Healy, J. V.; Dixon, M.; Read, B. J.; Cai, F. F.

    2004-12-01

    Non-parametric methods such as artificial neural nets can successfully model prices of financial options, out-performing the Black-Scholes analytic model (Eur. Phys. J. B 27 (2002) 219). However, the accuracy of such approaches is usually expressed only by a global fitting/error measure. This paper describes a robust method for determining prediction intervals for models derived by non-linear regression. We have demonstrated it by application to a standard synthetic example (29th Annual Conference of the IEEE Industrial Electronics Society, Special Session on Intelligent Systems, pp. 1926-1931). The method is used here to obtain prediction intervals for option prices using market data for LIFFE “ESX” FTSE 100 index options ( http://www.liffe.com/liffedata/contracts/month_onmonth.xls). We avoid special neural net architectures and use standard regression procedures to determine local error bars. The method is appropriate for target data with non constant variance (or volatility).

  20. A Continuous-Time Model for Valuing Foreign Exchange Options

    James J. Kung

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper makes use of stochastic calculus to develop a continuous-time model for valuing European options on foreign exchange (FX when both domestic and foreign spot rates follow a generalized Wiener process. Using the dollar/euro exchange rate as input for parameter estimation and employing our FX option model as a yardstick, we find that the traditional Garman-Kohlhagen FX option model, which assumes constant spot rates, values incorrectly calls and puts for different values of the ratio of exchange rate to exercise price. Specifically, it undervalues calls when the ratio is between 0.70 and 1.08, and it overvalues calls when the ratio is between 1.18 and 1.30, whereas it overvalues puts when the ratio is between 0.70 and 0.82, and it undervalues puts when the ratio is between 0.86 and 1.30.

  1. A tactical supply chain planning model with multiple flexibility options

    Esmaeilikia, Masoud; Fahimnia, Behnam; Sarkis, Joeseph

    2016-01-01

    Supply chain flexibility is widely recognized as an approach to manage uncertainty. Uncertainty in the supply chain may arise from a number of sources such as demand and supply interruptions and lead time variability. A tactical supply chain planning model with multiple flexibility options...... incorporated in sourcing, manufacturing and logistics functions can be used for the analysis of flexibility adjustment in an existing supply chain. This paper develops such a tactical supply chain planning model incorporating a realistic range of flexibility options. A novel solution method is designed...

  2. Density forecasts of crude-oil prices using option-implied and ARCH-type models

    Høg, Esben; Tsiaras, Leonicas

    2011-01-01

    of derivative contracts. Risk-neutral densities, obtained from panels of crude-oil option prices, are adjusted to reflect real-world risks using either a parametric or a non-parametric calibration approach. The relative performance of the models is evaluated for the entire support of the density, as well...... obtained by option prices and non-parametric calibration methods over those constructed using historical returns and simulated ARCH processes. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark...

  3. Clarifying evacuation options through fire behavior and traffic modeling

    Carol L. Rice; Ronny J. Coleman; Mike. Price

    2011-01-01

    Communities are becoming increasingly concerned with the variety of choices related to wildfire evacuation. We used ArcView with Network Analyst to evaluate the different options for evacuations during wildfire in a case study community. We tested overlaying fire growth patterns with the road network and population characteristics to determine recommendations for...

  4. Evaluating Nitrogen Management Options for Reducing Nitrate Leaching from Northeast U.S. Pastures

    William L. Stout

    2001-01-01

    Full Text Available Substantial amounts of nitrate nitrogen NO3-N can leach from intensively grazed pasture in the northeast U.S. where there is about 30 cm of groundwater recharge, annually. Management options for reducing NO3-N leaching were evaluated for this environment using the Cornell Net Carbohydrate and Protein System Model and a recently developed nitrogen leaching index. Management options utilizing energy supplementation of grazing dairy cows could improve nitrogen efficiency within the cow, but would not necessarily reduce NO3-N leaching at the pasture scale if stocking rate was not controlled. The management option of using white clover to supply nitrogen to the pasture decreased NO3-N leaching, but produced less dry matter yield, which in turn reduced stocking rate. The economic returns of reducing NO3-N with these options need to be evaluated in light of milk prices and commodity and fertilizer nitrogen costs. At current prices and costs, the economic benefit from the energy supplementation options is substantial.

  5. A multicriteria approach to evaluate district heating system options

    Ghafghazi, S.; Sowlati, T. [Department of Wood Science, University of British Columbia, 2931-2424 Main Mall, Vancouver, BC (Canada); Sokhansanj, S. [Department of Chemical and Biological Engineering, University of British Columbia, 2360 East Mall, Vancouver, BC (Canada); Environmental Sciences Division, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN 37831 (United States); Melin, S. [Department of Chemical and Biological Engineering, University of British Columbia, 2360 East Mall, Vancouver, BC (Canada); Delta Research Corporation, Delta, BC (Canada)

    2010-04-15

    District energy systems, in which renewable energy sources may be utilized, are centralized systems to provide energy to residential and commercial buildings. The aim of this paper is to evaluate and rank energy sources available for a case of district heating system in Vancouver, Canada, based on multiple criteria and the view points of different stakeholders, and to show how communication would affect the ranking of alternatives. The available energy sources are natural gas, biomass (wood pellets), sewer heat, and geothermal heat. The evaluation criteria include GHG emissions, particulate matter emissions, maturity of technology, traffic load, and local source. In order to rank the energy options the PROMETHEE method is used. In this paper, two different scenarios were developed to indicate how the communication between the stakeholders would affect their preferences about criteria weights and would change the ranking of alternatives. The result of this study shows that without communication the best energy source for the considered district energy system is different for different stakeholders. While, addressing concerns through efficient communication would result in a general consensus. In this case, wood pellet is the best energy alternative for all the stakeholders. (author)

  6. Dynamics Model Applied to Pricing Options with Uncertain Volatility

    Lorella Fatone

    2012-01-01

    model is proposed. The data used to test the calibration problem included observations of asset prices over a finite set of (known equispaced discrete time values. Statistical tests were used to estimate the statistical significance of the two parameters of the Black-Scholes model: the volatility and the drift. The effects of these estimates on the option pricing problem were investigated. In particular, the pricing of an option with uncertain volatility in the Black-Scholes framework was revisited, and a statistical significance was associated with the price intervals determined using the Black-Scholes-Barenblatt equations. Numerical experiments involving synthetic and real data were presented. The real data considered were the daily closing values of the S&P500 index and the associated European call and put option prices in the year 2005. The method proposed here for calibrating the Black-Scholes dynamics model could be extended to other science and engineering models that may be expressed in terms of stochastic dynamical systems.

  7. Multifactor valuation models of energy futures and options on futures

    Bertus, Mark J.

    The intent of this dissertation is to investigate continuous time pricing models for commodity derivative contracts that consider mean reversion. The motivation for pricing commodity futures and option on futures contracts leads to improved practical risk management techniques in markets where uncertainty is increasing. In the dissertation closed-form solutions to mean reverting one-factor, two-factor, three-factor Brownian motions are developed for futures contracts. These solutions are obtained through risk neutral pricing methods that yield tractable expressions for futures prices, which are linear in the state variables, hence making them attractive for estimation. These functions, however, are expressed in terms of latent variables (i.e. spot prices, convenience yield) which complicate the estimation of the futures pricing equation. To address this complication a discussion on Dynamic factor analysis is given. This procedure documents latent variables using a Kalman filter and illustrations show how this technique may be used for the analysis. In addition, to the futures contracts closed form solutions for two option models are obtained. Solutions to the one- and two-factor models are tailored solutions of the Black-Scholes pricing model. Furthermore, since these contracts are written on the futures contracts, they too are influenced by the same underlying parameters of the state variables used to price the futures contracts. To conclude, the analysis finishes with an investigation of commodity futures options that incorporate random discrete jumps.

  8. Defaultable Game Options in a Hazard Process Model

    Tomasz R. Bielecki

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available The valuation and hedging of defaultable game options is studied in a hazard process model of credit risk. A convenient pricing formula with respect to a reference filteration is derived. A connection of arbitrage prices with a suitable notion of hedging is obtained. The main result shows that the arbitrage prices are the minimal superhedging prices with sigma martingale cost under a risk neutral measure.

  9. Evaluating Options for Civil Space Situational Awareness (SSA)

    Lal, B.; Carioscia, S. A.

    In recent years, the number of active satellites and human-made orbital space debris has increased dramatically. An expansion of activities in space, as is currently being proposed by many commercial and international entities, is expected to further exacerbate this challenge. The 18th Space Control Squadron under the Department of Defense (DOD) United States Strategic Command provides space situational awareness (SSA) services to users outside the national security community at no cost. International and commercial users demand better SSA service than is currently feasible, and the demand comes at a time when DOD is under pressure to better prepare for and respond to growing space-based threats to national security. Concerned about the possibility of overextending across conflicting missions in a fiscally constrained environment, some DOD officials have publicly noted a desire to move SSA services not related to national security out of DOD purview. Responding to a request from the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) Office of Commercial Space Transportation (AST), researchers at the Science and Technology Policy Institute (STPI) identified and evaluated potential approaches for providing SSA services for civil and commercial operations in space. In this paper, we summarize the report [1] and present the pros and cons of four approaches to the provision of civil SSA services in the United States: (1) maintaining status quo through continued provision by DOD; (2) provision by a civil government entity; (3) industry self-provision; and (4) provision by an international organization. Within the second approach, assuming the provision of SSA by a civil agency, STPI further identified and discussed four options: (1) civil agency service capability embedded within DOD; (2) independent civil service capability, using DOD software and systems; (3) independent civil service capability, using commercial software and systems; and (4) the government certifies non

  10. Mercury contaminated sediment sites—An evaluation of remedial options

    Randall, Paul M., E-mail: randall.paul@epa.gov [U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Research and Development, National Risk Management Research Laboratory, 26 West Martin Luther King Drive, Cincinnati, OH 45268 (United States); Chattopadhyay, Sandip, E-mail: Sandip.Chattopadhyay@tetratech.com [Tetra Tech, Inc., 250 West Court Street, Suite 200W, Cincinnati, OH 45202 (United States)

    2013-08-15

    Mercury (Hg) is a naturally-occurring element that is ubiquitous in the aquatic environment. Though efforts have been made in recent years to decrease Hg emissions, historically-emitted Hg can be retained in the sediments of aquatic bodies where they may be slowly converted to methylmercury (MeHg). Consequently, Hg in historically-contaminated sediments can result in high levels of significant exposure for aquatic species, wildlife and human populations consuming fish. Even if source control of contaminated wastewater is achievable, it may take a very long time, perhaps decades, for Hg-contaminated aquatic systems to reach relatively safe Hg levels in both water and surface sediment naturally. It may take even longer if Hg is present at higher concentration levels in deep sediment. Hg contaminated sediment results from previous releases or ongoing contributions from sources that are difficult to identify. Due to human activities or physical, chemical, or biological processes (e.g. hydrodynamic flows, bioturbation, molecular diffusion, and chemical transformation), the buried Hg can be remobilized into the overlying water. Hg speciation in the water column and sediments critically affect the reactivity (i.e. conversion of inorganic Hg(II) to MeHg), transport, and its exposure to living organisms. Also, geochemical conditions affect the activity of methylating bacteria and its availability for methylation. This review paper discusses remedial considerations (e.g. key chemical factors in fate and transport of Hg, source characterization and control, environmental management procedures, remediation options, modeling tools) and includes practical case studies for cleaning up Hg-contaminated sediment sites. -- Highlights: ► Managing mercury-contaminated sediment sites are challenging to remediate. ► Remediation technologies are making a difference in managing these sites. ► Partitioning plays a dominant role in the distribution of mercury species. ► Mathematical

  11. Bounds for perpetual American option prices in a jump diffusion model

    Ekström, Erik

    2006-01-01

    We provide bounds for perpetual American option prices in a jump diffusion model in terms of American option prices in the standard Black-Scholes model. We also investigate the dependence of the bounds on different parameters of the model.

  12. National Options for a Sustainable Nuclear Energy System: MCDM Evaluation Using an Improved Integrated Weighting Approach

    Ruxing Gao

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available While the prospects look bright for nuclear energy development in China, no consensus about an optimum transitional path towards sustainability of the nuclear fuel cycle has been achieved. Herein, we present a preliminary study of decision making for China’s future nuclear energy systems, combined with a dynamic analysis model. In terms of sustainability assessment based on environmental, economic, and social considerations, we compared and ranked the four candidate options of nuclear fuel cycles combined with an integrated evaluation analysis using the Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM method. An improved integrated weighting method was first applied in the nuclear fuel cycle evaluation study. This method synthesizes diverse subjective/objective weighting methods to evaluate conflicting criteria among the competing decision makers at different levels of expertise and experience. The results suggest that the fuel cycle option of direct recycling of spent fuel through fast reactors is the most competitive candidate, while the fuel cycle option of direct disposal of all spent fuel without recycling is the least attractive for China, from a sustainability perspective. In summary, this study provided a well-informed decision-making tool to support the development of national nuclear energy strategies.

  13. Prognostic modelling options for remaining useful life estimation by industry

    Sikorska, J. Z.; Hodkiewicz, M.; Ma, L.

    2011-07-01

    Over recent years a significant amount of research has been undertaken to develop prognostic models that can be used to predict the remaining useful life of engineering assets. Implementations by industry have only had limited success. By design, models are subject to specific assumptions and approximations, some of which are mathematical, while others relate to practical implementation issues such as the amount of data required to validate and verify a proposed model. Therefore, appropriate model selection for successful practical implementation requires not only a mathematical understanding of each model type, but also an appreciation of how a particular business intends to utilise a model and its outputs. This paper discusses business issues that need to be considered when selecting an appropriate modelling approach for trial. It also presents classification tables and process flow diagrams to assist industry and research personnel select appropriate prognostic models for predicting the remaining useful life of engineering assets within their specific business environment. The paper then explores the strengths and weaknesses of the main prognostics model classes to establish what makes them better suited to certain applications than to others and summarises how each have been applied to engineering prognostics. Consequently, this paper should provide a starting point for young researchers first considering options for remaining useful life prediction. The models described in this paper are Knowledge-based (expert and fuzzy), Life expectancy (stochastic and statistical), Artificial Neural Networks, and Physical models.

  14. Modelling the affordability and distributional implications of future health care financing options in South Africa.

    McIntyre, Di; Ataguba, John E

    2012-03-01

    South Africa is considering introducing a universal health care system. A key concern for policy-makers and the general public is whether or not this reform is affordable. Modelling the resource and revenue generation requirements of alternative reform options is critical to inform decision-making. This paper considers three reform scenarios: universal coverage funded by increased allocations to health from general tax and additional dedicated taxes; an alternative reform option of extending private health insurance coverage to all formal sector workers and their dependents with the remainder using tax-funded services; and maintaining the status quo. Each scenario was modelled over a 15-year period using a spreadsheet model. Statistical analyses were also undertaken to evaluate the impact of options on the distribution of health care financing burden and benefits from using health services across socio-economic groups. Universal coverage would result in total health care spending levels equivalent to 8.6% of gross domestic product (GDP), which is comparable to current spending levels. It is lower than the status quo option (9.5% of GDP) and far lower than the option of expanding private insurance cover (over 13% of GDP). However, public funding of health services would have to increase substantially. Despite this, universal coverage would result in the most progressive financing system if the additional public funding requirements are generated through a surcharge on taxable income (but not if VAT is increased). The extended private insurance scheme option would be the least progressive and would impose a very high payment burden; total health care payments on average would be 10.7% of household consumption expenditure compared with the universal coverage (6.7%) and status quo (7.5%) options. The least pro-rich distribution of service benefits would be achieved under universal coverage. Universal coverage is affordable and would promote health system equity, but

  15. Representing value judgements in the evaluation options for nuclear waste

    Watson, S.R.

    1985-08-01

    In this report we show how the concept of Best Practical Environmental Option for nuclear waste management may be articulated using the methods of Multi-attribute Value Analysis. The concept of characteristic weights is introduced to represent differences of opinion on the relative importance of different factors that may reasonably be held, and show how these may be used to summarise information for decision-makers in a concise way. (author)

  16. A nuclear fuel cycle system dynamic model for spent fuel storage options

    Brinton, Samuel; Kazimi, Mujid

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: • Used nuclear fuel management requires a dynamic system analysis study due to its socio-technical complexity. • Economic comparison of local, regional, and national storage options is limited due to the public financial information. • Local and regional options of used nuclear fuel management are found to be the most economic means of storage. - Abstract: The options for used nuclear fuel storage location and affected parameters such as economic liabilities are currently a focus of several high level studies. A variety of nuclear fuel cycle system analysis models are available for such a task. The application of nuclear fuel cycle system dynamics models for waste management options is important to life-cycle impact assessment. The recommendations of the Blue Ribbon Committee on America’s Nuclear Future led to increased focus on long periods of spent fuel storage [1]. This motivated further investigation of the location dependency of used nuclear fuel in the parameters of economics, environmental impact, and proliferation risk. Through a review of available literature and interactions with each of the programs available, comparisons of post-reactor fuel storage and handling options will be evaluated based on the aforementioned parameters and a consensus of preferred system metrics and boundary conditions will be provided. Specifically, three options of local, regional, and national storage were studied. The preliminary product of this research is the creation of a system dynamics tool known as the Waste Management Module (WMM) which provides an easy to use interface for education on fuel cycle waste management economic impacts. Initial results of baseline cases point to positive benefits of regional storage locations with local regional storage options continuing to offer the lowest cost

  17. D0 HVAC System Controls Evaluation of Upgrade Options

    Markley, D.; Simon, P.

    1998-01-01

    This engineering note documents three different options for upgrading the Dzero HVAC control system. All three options leave the current field hardware and field devices intact and upgrade the computer control hardware and software. Dzero will be heading into a physics run starting in 2000. This physics run could last several years. The Dzero HVAC system is an integral part of climate control and electronics cooling. The current HVAC control system is based upon a 1985 Johnson Controls System. In order to enter the next long-term physics run with a solid HVAC control system, the current control system needs to be upgraded. This proposal investigates three options: (1) Replacement to the next generation of Johnson Controls Hardware and Software with the Johnson Controls operator interface - FESS; (2) Replacement to the next generation of Johnson Controls Hardware and Software with the FIX32 Operator Interface - FESS/Dzero; and (3) Replacement with a commercially available Programmable Logic Controller (PLC) WITH THE FIX 32 Operator Interface - Dzero.

  18. Asymptotic approach to the pricing of geometric asian options under the CEV model

    Lee, Min-Ku

    2016-01-01

    This paper studies the pricing of Asian options whose payoffs depend on the average value of an underlying asset during the period to a maturity. Since the Asian option is not so sensitive to the value of underlying asset, the possibility of manipulation is relatively small than the other options such as European vanilla and barrier options. We derive the pricing formula of geometric Asian options under the constant elasticity of variance (CEV) model that is one of local volatility models, and investigate the implication of the CEV model for geometric Asian options.

  19. Evaluation models and evaluation use

    Contandriopoulos, Damien; Brousselle, Astrid

    2012-01-01

    The use of evaluation results is at the core of evaluation theory and practice. Major debates in the field have emphasized the importance of both the evaluator’s role and the evaluation process itself in fostering evaluation use. A recent systematic review of interventions aimed at influencing policy-making or organizational behavior through knowledge exchange offers a new perspective on evaluation use. We propose here a framework for better understanding the embedded relations between evaluation context, choice of an evaluation model and use of results. The article argues that the evaluation context presents conditions that affect both the appropriateness of the evaluation model implemented and the use of results. PMID:23526460

  20. Energy options

    Hampton, Michael

    1999-01-01

    This chapter focuses on energy options as a means of managing exposure to energy prices. An intuitive approach to energy options is presented, and traditional definitions of call and put options are given. The relationship between options and swaps, option value and option exercises, commodity options, and option pricing are described. An end-user's guide to energy option strategy is outlined, and straight options, collars, participating swaps and collars, bull and bear spreads, and swaption are examined. Panels explaining the defining of basis risk, and discussing option pricing and the Greeks, delta hedging, managing oil options using the Black-Scholes model, caps, floors and collars, and guidelines on hedging versus speculation with options are included in the paper

  1. Modelling Callable Annuity Bonds with Interest-Only Optionality

    Holst, Anders; Nalholm, Morten

    2004-01-01

    In this paper an investigation of the pricing of callable annuities with interest-only (I-O) optionality is conducted. First the I-O optionality feature of callable annuities is introduced. Next an algorithm for pricing callable annuities with I-O optionality using the finite difference methodology, is formulated. This is then used to investigate optimal strategies of I-O bonds and impacts on prices from the I-O optionality. It is found that the I-O feature necessitates a simul...

  2. Real Option--A New Approach in the Evaluation of Telecom Investment Projects

    WU Hong

    2005-01-01

    This paper gives a new method into the evaluating system of telecom investment projects, I.e. Real Option. This may overcome the defects resulted from employing Net Present Value (NPV), which is now used in the evaluation of telecom projects. A theoretical analysis of Real Option is provided, followed by an example of telecom investment project to illustrate the differences between the two methods.

  3. EU ETS Allocation. Evaluation of present system and options beyond 2012

    Sijm, J.P.M. (ed.) [ECN Policy Studies, Petten (Netherlands); Berk, M.M.; Den Elzen, M.G.J.; Van den Wijngaart, R.A. [Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency NMP, Bilthoven (Netherlands)

    2007-03-15

    This study assesses various options for EU (European Union) burden sharing and EU ETS (Emissions Trading System) allocation beyond 2012, based on a sample of policy evaluation criteria and a review of the literature on (1) international and EU burden sharing of future GHG mitigation commitments, and (2) allocation of GHG emission allowances among countries, sectors and emitting installations. It shows that these options score differently with regard to a variety of individual evaluation criteria (such as environmental effectiveness, economic efficiency, social equity or political acceptability), while the overall performance of these options depends on both the selection, interpretation, weighing and adding of these criteria.

  4. Carbon flows and economic evaluation of mitigation options in Tanzania's forest sector

    Makundi, W.; Okiting'ati, Aku

    1995-01-01

    This paper presents estimates of the rate of forest use, deforestation and forest degradation, as well as the corresponding carbon flows, in the Tanzanian forest sector. It is estimated that the country lost 525,000 ha of forests in 1990, with associated committed emissions of 31.5 Mt carbon (MtC), and 7.05 MtC of committed carbon sequestration. The paper then describes the possible response options in the forest sector to mitigate GHG emissions, and evaluates the most stable subset of these - i.e. forest conservation, woodfuel plantations and agroforestry. The conservation options were found to cost an average of US$1.27 per tonne of carbon (tC) conserved. Five options for fuelwood plantations and agroforestry, with two different ownership regimes were evaluated. Each one of the options gives a positive net present value at low rates of discount, ranging from U.S.$1.06 to 3.4/tC of avoided emissions at 0% discount rate. At 10% discount, the eucalyptus and maize option has a highest PNV of U.S.$1.73/tC, and the government plantation gives a negative PNV (loss) of U.S.$ 0.13 tC sequestered. The options with a private/community type of ownership scheme fared better than government run options. This conclusion also held true when ranking the options by the BRAC indicator, with the government fuelwood plantation ranked the lowest, and the private agroforestry option of eucalyptus and corn performing best. The mitigation options evaluated here show that the forest sector in Tanzania has one of the most cost-effective GHG mitigation opportunities in the world, and they are within the development aspirations of the country. (Author)

  5. Evaluation of storage/transportation options to support criteria development for the Phase I MRS

    Sorenson, K.B.; Brown, N.N.; Bennett, P.C.; Lake, W.

    1991-01-01

    The DOE's Office of Civilian Waste Management (OCRWM) plans to develop an interim storage facility to enable acceptance of spent fuel in 1998. It is estimated that this interim storage facility would be needed for about two years. A Monitored Retrievable Storage (MRS) facility is anticipated in 2000 and a repository in 2010. Acceptance and transport of spent fuel by DOE/OCRWM in 1998 will require an operating transportation system. Because this interim storage facility is not yet defined, development of an optimally compatible transportation system is not a certainty. In order to assure a transport capability for 1998 acceptance of spent fuel, it was decided that the OCRWM transportation program had to identify likely options for an interim storage facility, including identification of the components needed for compatibility between likely interim storage facility options and transportation. Primary attention was given to existing hardware, although conceptual designs were also considered. A systems-based probabilistic decision model was suggested by Sandia National Labs. and accepted by DOE/OCRWM's transportation program. Performance of the evaluation task involved several elements of the transportation program. This paper describes the decision model developed to accomplish this task, along with some of the results and conclusions

  6. Evaluation of five guidelines for option development in multiple-choice item-writing.

    Martínez, Rafael J; Moreno, Rafael; Martín, Irene; Trigo, M Eva

    2009-05-01

    This paper evaluates certain guidelines for writing multiple-choice test items. The analysis of the responses of 5013 subjects to 630 items from 21 university classroom achievement tests suggests that an option should not differ in terms of heterogeneous content because such error has a slight but harmful effect on item discrimination. This also occurs with the "None of the above" option when it is the correct one. In contrast, results do not show the supposedly negative effects of a different-length option, the use of specific determiners, or the use of the "All of the above" option, which not only decreases difficulty but also improves discrimination when it is the correct option.

  7. An Evaluation of Energy Storage Options for Nuclear Power

    Coleman, Justin L. [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Bragg-Sitton, Shannon M. [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Dufek, Eric J. [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

    2017-06-01

    examination of energy storage options that could be integrated with nuclear generation. Figure 1 provides an overview of the 2015 energy mix by sector, which shows that NPPs are currently used exclusively for electricity generation that is ultimately consumed in the residential, commercial, and industrial sectors. Some areas for NPP energy growth in the future include power generation for electrified transportation and thermal generation for storage and industrial applications. Currently, most industrial thermal energy users combust fossil resources (i.e., coal or natural gas) to meet the energy needs of the processes, but heat from nuclear operations could also be used in certain specific applications.

  8. An Evaluation of Energy Storage Options for Nuclear Power

    Coleman, Justin L.; Bragg-Sitton, Shannon M.; Dufek, Eric J.

    2017-01-01

    examination of energy storage options that could be integrated with nuclear generation. Figure 1 provides an overview of the 2015 energy mix by sector, which shows that NPPs are currently used exclusively for electricity generation that is ultimately consumed in the residential, commercial, and industrial sectors. Some areas for NPP energy growth in the future include power generation for electrified transportation and thermal generation for storage and industrial applications. Currently, most industrial thermal energy users combust fossil resources (i.e., coal or natural gas) to meet the energy needs of the processes, but heat from nuclear operations could also be used in certain specific applications.

  9. Fuzzy Optimization of Option Pricing Model and Its Application in Land Expropriation

    Aimin Heng

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Option pricing is irreversible, fuzzy, and flexible. The fuzzy measure which is used for real option pricing is a useful supplement to the traditional real option pricing method. Based on the review of the concepts of the mean and variance of trapezoidal fuzzy number and the combination with the Carlsson-Fuller model, the trapezoidal fuzzy variable can be used to represent the current price of land expropriation and the sale price of land on the option day. Fuzzy Black-Scholes option pricing model can be constructed under fuzzy environment and problems also can be solved and discussed through numerical examples.

  10. Evaluation of Optional and/or Replacement Concrete Sealers

    2018-02-01

    This is an In-House evaluation of products performed by ODOTs Office of Materials Management. ODOT Spends about $8M per year on coating concrete for esthetic purposes. Built into the coating is sealing capability to help protect the concrete and t...

  11. Acne Scarring—Pathogenesis, Evaluation, and Treatment Options

    Connolly, Deirdre; Vu, Ha Linh; Mariwalla, Kavita

    2017-01-01

    Acne vulgaris is a ubiquitous problem affecting 80 percent of people ages 11 to 30 years, with many patients experiencing some degree of scarring. This review focuses on atrophic scars, the most common type of acne scar. We briefly address the cellular sequelae that lead to scar formation and the initial evaluation of patients with acne scars. We then discuss an algorithmic approach to the treatment of acne scarring based on the classification of scars into erythematous and atrophic types. Lastly, we discuss the future treatment of acne scars and ongoing clinical trials. PMID:29344322

  12. Mapping regulatory models for medicinal cannabis: a matrix of options.

    Belackova, Vendula; Shanahan, Marian; Ritter, Alison

    2017-05-30

    Objective The aim of the present study was to develop a framework for assessing regulatory options for medicinal cannabis in Australia. Methods International regulatory regimes for medicinal cannabis were reviewed with a qualitative policy analysis approach and key policy features were synthesised, leading to a conceptual framework that facilitates decision making across multiple dimensions. Results Two central organising dimensions of medicinal cannabis regulation were identified: cannabis supply and patient authorisation (including patient access). A number of the different supply options can be matched with a number of different patient authorisation options, leading to a matrix of possible regulatory regimes. Conclusions The regulatory options, as used internationally, involve different forms of cannabis (synthetic and plant-based pharmaceutical preparations or herbal cannabis) and the varying extent to which patient authorisation policies and procedures are stringently or more loosely defined. The optimal combination of supply and patient authorisation options in any jurisdiction that chooses to make medicinal cannabis accessible will depend on policy goals. What is known about the topic? Internationally, regulation of medicinal cannabis has developed idiosyncratically, depending on formulations that were made available and local context. There has been no attempt to date in the scientific literature to systematically document the variety of regulatory possibilities for medicinal cannabis. What does this paper add? This paper presents a new conceptual schema for considering options for the regulation of medicinal cannabis, across both supply and patient authorisation aspects. What are the implications for practitioners? The design of regulatory systems in Australia, whether for pharmaceutical or herbal products, is a vital issue for policy makers right now as federal and state and territory governments grapple with the complexities of medicinal cannabis

  13. Requirements of Integrated Design Teams While Evaluating Advanced Energy Retrofit Design Options in Immersive Virtual Environments

    Xue Yang

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available One of the significant ways to save energy use in buildings is to implement advanced energy retrofits in existing buildings. Improving energy performance of buildings through advanced energy retrofitting requires a clear understanding of the cost and energy implications of design alternatives from various engineering disciplines when different retrofit options are considered. The communication of retrofit design alternatives and their energy implications is essential in the decision-making process, as it affects the final retrofit selections and hence the energy efficiency of the retrofitted buildings. The objective of the research presented here was to identify a generic list of information requirements that are needed to be shared and collectively analyzed by integrated design teams during advanced energy retrofit design review meetings held in immersive settings. While identifying such requirements, the authors used an immersive environment based iterative requirements elicitation approach. The technology was used as a means to better identify the information requirements of integrated design teams to be analyzed as a group. This paper provides findings on information requirements of integrated design teams when evaluating retrofit options in immersive virtual environments. The information requirements were identified through interactions with sixteen experts in design and energy modeling domain, and validated with another group of participants consisting of six design experts who were experienced in integrated design processes. Industry practitioners can use the findings in deciding on what information to share with integrated design team members during design review meetings that utilize immersive virtual environments.

  14. Decision-making model of generation technology under uncertainty based on real option theory

    Ming, Zeng; Ping, Zhang; Shunkun, Yu; Ge, Zhang

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • A decision-making model of generation technology investment is proposed. • The irreversible investment concept and real option theory is introduced. • Practical data was used to prove the validity of the model. • Impact of electricity and fuel price fluctuation on investment was analyzed. - Abstract: The introduction of market competition and the increased uncertainty factors makes the generators have to decide not only on whether to invest generation capacity or not but also on what kind of generation technology to choose. In this paper, a decision-making model of generation technology investment is proposed. The irreversible investment concept and real option theory is introduced as the fundamental of the model. In order to explain the decision-making process of generator’s investment, the decision-making optimization model was built considering two generation technologies, i.e., the heat-only system and the combined heat and power generation. Also, we discussed the theory deducing process, which explained how to eliminate the overrated economic potential caused by risk hazard, based on economic evaluation of both generation technologies. Finally, practical data from electricity market of Inner Mongolia was used to prove the validity of the model and the impact of uncertainties of electricity and fuel price fluctuation on investment was analyzed according to the simulated results.

  15. Evaluating sub-national building-energy efficiency policy options under uncertainty: Efficient sensitivity testing of alternative climate, technological, and socioeconomic futures in a regional integrated-assessment model

    Scott, Michael J.; Daly, Don S.; Zhou, Yuyu; Rice, Jennie S.; Patel, Pralit L.; McJeon, Haewon C.; Page Kyle, G.; Kim, Son H.; Eom, Jiyong

    2014-01-01

    Improving the energy efficiency of building stock, commercial equipment, and household appliances can have a major positive impact on energy use, carbon emissions, and building services. Sub-national regions such as the U.S. states wish to increase energy efficiency, reduce carbon emissions, or adapt to climate change. Evaluating sub-national policies to reduce energy use and emissions is difficult because of the large uncertainties in socioeconomic factors, technology performance and cost, and energy and climate policies. Climate change itself may undercut such policies. However, assessing all of the uncertainties of large-scale energy and climate models by performing thousands of model runs can be a significant modeling effort with its accompanying computational burden. By applying fractional–factorial methods to the GCAM-USA 50-state integrated-assessment model in the context of a particular policy question, this paper demonstrates how a decision-focused sensitivity analysis strategy can greatly reduce computational burden in the presence of uncertainty and reveal the important drivers for decisions and more detailed uncertainty analysis. - Highlights: • We evaluate building energy codes and standards for climate mitigation. • We use an integrated assessment model and fractional factorial methods. • Decision criteria are energy use, CO2 emitted, and building service cost. • We demonstrate sensitivity analysis for three states. • We identify key variables to propagate with Monte Carlo or surrogate models

  16. Joint Pricing of VIX and SPX Options with Stochastic Volatility and Jump models

    Kokholm, Thomas; Stisen, Martin

    2015-01-01

    to existing literature, we derive numerically simpler VIX option and futures pricing formulas in the case of the SVJ model. Moreover, the paper is the first to study the pricing performance of three widely used models to SPX options and VIX derivatives.......With the existence of active markets for volatility derivatives and options on the underlying instrument, the need for models that are able to price these markets consistently has increased. Although pricing formulas for VIX and vanilla options are now available for commonly employed models...... and variance (SVJJ) are jointly calibrated to market quotes on SPX and VIX options together with VIX futures. The full flexibility of having jumps in both returns and volatility added to a stochastic volatility model is essential. Moreover, we find that the SVJJ model with the Feller condition imposed...

  17. The Conquest of Outer Space--Optional Curriculum Model

    Florian, Gabriel; Florian, Aurelia-Daniela; Pufu, Nicolae

    2015-01-01

    This paper proposes an optional syllabus for the students in the XIIth grade. The proposed theme analyzes the concept of "variable mass" both in terms of classical mechanics and relativistic mechanics. In terms of classical mechanics we refer to the slow motion of a body, whose mass ranges in ascending way (by annealing a mass particle…

  18. Capacity choice in (strategic) real options models : A survey

    Huberts, Nick; Huisman, Kuno; Kort, Peter; Lavrutich, Maria

    2015-01-01

    The theory of real options determines the optimal time to invest in a project of given size. As a main result, it is found that in a more uncertain environment, it is optimal for a firm to delay its investment. In other words, uncertainty generates a “value of waiting.” Recently, contributions

  19. An Evaluation of Feral Cat Management Options Using a Decision Analysis Network

    Kerrie Anne T. Loyd

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available The feral domestic cat (Felis catus is a predatory invasive species with documented negative effects on native wildlife. The issue of appropriate and acceptable feral cat management is a matter of contentious debate in cities and states across the United States due to concerns for wildlife conservation, cat welfare, and public health. Common management strategies include: Trap-Neuter-Release, Trap-Neuter-Release with removal of kittens for adoption and Trap-Euthanize. Very little empirical evidence exists relevant to the efficacy of alternative options and a model-based approach is needed to predict population response and extend calculations to impact on wildlife. We have created a structured decision support model representing multiple stakeholder groups to facilitate the coordinated management of feral cats. We used a probabilistic graphical model (a Bayesian Belief Network to evaluate and rank alternative management decisions according to efficacy, societal preferences, and cost. Our model predicts that Trap-Neuter-Release strategies would be optimal management decisions for small local populations of less than fifty cats while Trap-Euthanize would be the optimal management decision for populations greater than 50 cats. Removal is predicted to reduce feral cat populations quickly and prevent cats from taking a large number of wildlife prey.

  20. Evaluation of Landfill Cover Design Options for Waste Disposal Sites in the Coastal Regions of Ghana

    Kodwo Beedu Keelson

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Uncontrolled leachate generation from operational and closed waste disposal sites is a major environmental concern in the coastal regions of Ghana which have abundant surface water and groundwater resources. The Ghana Landfill Guidelines requires the provision of a final cover or capping system as part of a final closure plan for waste disposal sites in the country as a means of minimizing the harmful environmental effects of these emissions. However, this technical manual does not provide explicit guidance on the material types or configuration for landfill covers that would be suitable for the different climatic conditions in the country. Four landfill cover options which are based on the USEPA RCRA-type and evapotranspirative landfill cover design specifications were evaluated with the aid of the HELP computer program to determine their suitability for waste disposal sites located in the Western, Central and Greater Accra regions. The RCRA Subtitle C cover which yielded flux rates of less than 0.001 mm/yr was found to be suitable for the specific climatic conditions. The RCRA Subtitle D cover was determined to be unsuitable due to the production of very large flux rates in excess of 200 mm/yr. The results for the anisotropic barrier and capillary barrier covers were inconclusive. Recommendations for further study include a longer simulation period as well the study of the combined effects of different topsoil vegetative conditions and evaporative zone depths on the landfill water balance. The use of other water balance models such as EPIC, HYDRUS-2D and UNSAT-H for the evaluation of the evapotranspirative landfill cover design options should also be considered.

  1. The application of option pricing theory to the evaluation of mining investment

    ZHANG Neng-fu(张能福); CAI Si-jing(蔡嗣经); LIU Chao-ma(刘朝马); TANG Rui(唐瑞)

    2003-01-01

    A rational evaluation on an investment project forms the basis of a right investment decision-making. The discounted cash flow (DCF for short) method is usually used as a traditional evaluation method for a project investment. However, as the mining investment is influenced by many uncertainties, DCF method cannot take into account these uncertainties and often underestimates the value of an investment project. Based on the option pricing theory of the modern financial assets, the characteristics of a real project investment are discussed, and the management option of mine managers and its pricing method are described.

  2. Modelling mitigation options to reduce diffuse nitrogen water pollution from agriculture.

    Bouraoui, Fayçal; Grizzetti, Bruna

    2014-01-15

    Agriculture is responsible for large scale water quality degradation and is estimated to contribute around 55% of the nitrogen entering the European Seas. The key policy instrument for protecting inland, transitional and coastal water resources is the Water Framework Directive (WFD). Reducing nutrient losses from agriculture is crucial to the successful implementation of the WFD. There are several mitigation measures that can be implemented to reduce nitrogen losses from agricultural areas to surface and ground waters. For the selection of appropriate measures, models are useful for quantifying the expected impacts and the associated costs. In this article we review some of the models used in Europe to assess the effectiveness of nitrogen mitigation measures, ranging from fertilizer management to the construction of riparian areas and wetlands. We highlight how the complexity of models is correlated with the type of scenarios that can be tested, with conceptual models mostly used to evaluate the impact of reduced fertilizer application, and the physically-based models used to evaluate the timing and location of mitigation options and the response times. We underline the importance of considering the lag time between the implementation of measures and effects on water quality. Models can be effective tools for targeting mitigation measures (identifying critical areas and timing), for evaluating their cost effectiveness, for taking into consideration pollution swapping and considering potential trade-offs in contrasting environmental objectives. Models are also useful for involving stakeholders during the development of catchments mitigation plans, increasing their acceptability. © 2013.

  3. Option Price Decomposition in Spot-Dependent Volatility Models and Some Applications

    Raúl Merino

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available We obtain a Hull and White type option price decomposition for a general local volatility model. We apply the obtained formula to CEV model. As an application we give an approximated closed formula for the call option price under a CEV model and an approximated short term implied volatility surface. These approximated formulas are used to estimate model parameters. Numerical comparison is performed for our new method with exact and approximated formulas existing in the literature.

  4. Comparison of turbulence models and CFD solution options for a plain pipe

    Canli, Eyub; Ates, Ali; Bilir, Sefik

    2018-06-01

    Present paper is partly a declaration of state of a currently ongoing PhD work about turbulent flow in a thick walled pipe in order to analyze conjugate heat transfer. An ongoing effort on CFD investigation of this problem using cylindrical coordinates and dimensionless governing equations is identified alongside a literature review. The mentioned PhD work will be conducted using an in-house developed code. However it needs preliminary evaluation by means of commercial codes available in the field. Accordingly ANSYS CFD was utilized in order to evaluate mesh structure needs and asses the turbulence models and solution options in terms of computational power versus difference signification. Present work contains a literature survey, an arrangement of governing equations of the PhD work, CFD essentials of the preliminary analysis and findings about the mesh structure and solution options. Mesh element number was changed between 5,000 and 320,000. k-ɛ, k-ω, Spalart-Allmaras and Viscous-Laminar models were compared. Reynolds number was changed between 1,000 and 50,000. As it may be expected due to the literature, k-ɛ yields more favorable results near the pipe axis and k-ωyields more convenient results near the wall. However k-ɛ is found sufficient to give turbulent structures for a conjugate heat transfer problem in a thick walled plain pipe.

  5. The IIR evaluation model

    Borlund, Pia

    2003-01-01

    An alternative approach to evaluation of interactive information retrieval (IIR) systems, referred to as the IIR evaluation model, is proposed. The model provides a framework for the collection and analysis of IR interaction data. The aim of the model is two-fold: 1) to facilitate the evaluation ...

  6. The Application of the Real Options Method for the Evaluation of High-Rise Construction Projects

    Izotov, Aleksandr; Rostova, Olga; Dubgorn, Alissa

    2018-03-01

    The paper is devoted to the problem of evaluation of high-rise construction projects in a rapidly changing environment. The authors proposed an algorithm for constructing and embedding real options in high-rise construction projects, which makes it possible to increase the flexibility of managing multi-stage projects that have the ability to adapt to changing conditions of implementation.

  7. An open-label Optional Titration Trial to Evaluate the Efficacy ...

    An eight-week open-label optional titration trial to evaluate the efficacy, tolerability and safety of Valsartan 80 mg/ & 160 mg once daily was carried out in patients with mild to moderate essential hypertension at the Lagos University Teaching Hospital. There was a significant reduction in both systolic and diastolic blood ...

  8. Applicability of line outage distribution factors to evaluate distribution network expansion options

    Grond, M.O.W.; Pouw, J.I.P.; Morren, J.; Slootweg, J.G.

    2014-01-01

    Distribution network operators require more advanced planning tools to deal with the challenges of future network planning. An appropriate planning and optimization tool can identify which option for network extension should be selected from available alternatives. However, the evaluation part in

  9. Energy exotic options

    Kaminski, V.; Gibner, S.; Pinnamaneni, K.

    1999-01-01

    This chapter with 88 references focuses on the use of exotic options to control exposure to energy prices. Exotic options are defined, and the conversion of a standard option into an exotic option and pricing models are examined. Pricing and hedging exotic options, path-dependent options, multi-commodity options, options on the minimum-or-maximum of two commodities, compound options, digital options, hybrid and complex structures, and natural gas daily options are described. Formulas for option pricing for vanilla, barrier, compound, options on minimum or maximum of two assets, and look back options are given in an appendix

  10. Pricing Exotic Options under a High-Order Markovian Regime Switching Model

    Wai-Ki Ching

    2007-10-01

    Full Text Available We consider the pricing of exotic options when the price dynamics of the underlying risky asset are governed by a discrete-time Markovian regime-switching process driven by an observable, high-order Markov model (HOMM. We assume that the market interest rate, the drift, and the volatility of the underlying risky asset's return switch over time according to the states of the HOMM, which are interpreted as the states of an economy. We will then employ the well-known tool in actuarial science, namely, the Esscher transform to determine an equivalent martingale measure for option valuation. Moreover, we will also investigate the impact of the high-order effect of the states of the economy on the prices of some path-dependent exotic options, such as Asian options, lookback options, and barrier options.

  11. Integrated planning and spatial evaluation of megasite remediation and reuse options

    Schädler, Sebastian; Morio, Maximilian; Bartke, Stephan; Finkel, Michael

    2012-01-01

    Redevelopment of large contaminated brownfields (megasites) is often hampered by a lack of communication and harmonization among diverse stakeholders with potentially conflicting interests. Decision support is required to provide integrative yet transparent evaluation of often complex spatial information to stakeholders with different areas of expertise. It is considered crucial for successful redevelopment to identify a shared vision of how the respective contaminated site could be remediated and redeveloped. We describe a framework of assessment methods and models that analyzes and visualizes site- and land use-specific spatial information at the screening level, with the aim to support the derivation of recommendable land use layouts and to initiate further and more detailed planning. The framework integrates a GIS-based identification of areas to be remediated, an estimation of associated clean-up costs, a spatially explicit market value appraisal, and an assessment of the planned future land use's contribution to sustainable urban and regional development. Case study results show that derived options are potentially favorable in both a sustainability and an economic sense and that iterative re-planning is facilitated by the evaluation and visualization of economic, ecological and socio-economic aspects. The framework supports an efficient early judgment about whether and how abandoned land may be assigned a sustainable and marketable land use.

  12. Pricing European option with transaction costs under the fractional long memory stochastic volatility model

    Wang, Xiao-Tian; Wu, Min; Zhou, Ze-Min; Jing, Wei-Shu

    2012-02-01

    This paper deals with the problem of discrete time option pricing using the fractional long memory stochastic volatility model with transaction costs. Through the 'anchoring and adjustment' argument in a discrete time setting, a European call option pricing formula is obtained.

  13. Models for S&P500 Dynamics: Evidence from Realized Volatility, Daily Returns, and Option Prices

    Christoffersen, Peter; Jacobs, Kris; Mimouni, Karim

    in the search for alternative specifications. We then estimate the models using maximum likelihood on S&P500 returns. Finally, we employ nonlinear least squares on a panel of option data. In comparison with earlier studies that explicitly solve the filtering problem, we analyze a more comprehensive option data......Most recent empirical option valuation studies build on the affine square root (SQR) stochastic volatility model. The SQR model is a convenient choice, because it yields closed-form solutions for option prices. However, relatively little is known about the resulting biases. We investigate...... alternatives to the SQR model, by comparing its empirical performance with that of five different but equally parsimonious stochastic volatility models. We provide empirical evidence from three different sources. We first use realized volatilities to assess the properties of the SQR model and to guide us...

  14. American Option Pricing using GARCH models and the Normal Inverse Gaussian distribution

    Stentoft, Lars Peter

    In this paper we propose a feasible way to price American options in a model with time varying volatility and conditional skewness and leptokurtosis using GARCH processes and the Normal Inverse Gaussian distribution. We show how the risk neutral dynamics can be obtained in this model, we interpret...... properties shows that there are important option pricing differences compared to the Gaussian case as well as to the symmetric special case. A large scale empirical examination shows that our model outperforms the Gaussian case for pricing options on three large US stocks as well as a major index...

  15. Evaluation of retention and disposal options for tritium in fuel reprocessing

    Grimes, W.R.; Hampson, D.C.; Larkin, D.J.; Skolrud, J.O.; Benjamin, R.W.

    1982-08-01

    Five options were evaluated as means of retaining tritium released from light-water reactor or fast breeder reactor fuel during the head-end steps of a typical Purex reprocessing scheme. Cost estimates for these options were compared with a base case in which no retention of tritium within the facility was obtained. Costs were also estimated for a variety of disposal methods of the retained tritium. The disposal costs were combined with the retention costs to yield total costs (capital plus operating) for retention and disposal of tritium under the conditions envisioned. The above costs were converted to an annual basis and to a dollars per curie retained basis. This then was used to estimate the cost in dollars per man-rem saved by retaining the tritium. Only the options that used the least expensive disposal costs could approach the $1000/man-rem cost used as a guide by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission

  16. Economic assumptions for evaluating reactor-related options for managing plutonium

    Rothwell, G.

    1996-01-01

    This paper discusses the economic assumptions in the U.S. National Academy of Sciences' report, Management and Disposition of Excess Weapons Plutonium: Reactor-Related Options (1995). It reviews the Net Present Value approach for discounting and comparing the costs and benefits of reactor-related options. It argues that because risks associated with the returns to plutonium management are unlikely to be constant over time, it is preferable to use a real risk-free rate to discount cash flows and explicitly describe the probability distributions for costs and benefits, allowing decision makers to determine the risk premium of each option. As a baseline for comparison, it assumes that one economic benefit of changing the current plutonium management system is a reduction in on-going Surveillance and Maintenance (S and M) costs. This reduction in the present value of S and M costs can be compared with the discounted costs of each option. These costs include direct construction costs, indirect costs, operating costs minus revenues, and decontamination and decommissioning expenses. The paper also discusses how to conduct an uncertainty analysis. It finishes by summarizing conclusions and recommendations and discusses how these recommendations might apply to the evaluation of Russian plutonium management options. (author)

  17. Contraction Options and Optimal Multiple-Stopping in Spectrally Negative Lévy Models

    Yamazaki, Kazutoshi, E-mail: kyamazak@kansai-u.ac.jp [Kansai University, Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Engineering Science (Japan)

    2015-08-15

    This paper studies the optimal multiple-stopping problem arising in the context of the timing option to withdraw from a project in stages. The profits are driven by a general spectrally negative Lévy process. This allows the model to incorporate sudden declines of the project values, generalizing greatly the classical geometric Brownian motion model. We solve the one-stage case as well as the extension to the multiple-stage case. The optimal stopping times are of threshold-type and the value function admits an expression in terms of the scale function. A series of numerical experiments are conducted to verify the optimality and to evaluate the efficiency of the algorithm.

  18. Contraction Options and Optimal Multiple-Stopping in Spectrally Negative Lévy Models

    Yamazaki, Kazutoshi

    2015-01-01

    This paper studies the optimal multiple-stopping problem arising in the context of the timing option to withdraw from a project in stages. The profits are driven by a general spectrally negative Lévy process. This allows the model to incorporate sudden declines of the project values, generalizing greatly the classical geometric Brownian motion model. We solve the one-stage case as well as the extension to the multiple-stage case. The optimal stopping times are of threshold-type and the value function admits an expression in terms of the scale function. A series of numerical experiments are conducted to verify the optimality and to evaluate the efficiency of the algorithm

  19. Evaluation of cleaner production options in dyeing and printing industry: Using combination weighting method

    Kang, Hong; Zhang, Yun; Hou, Haochen; Sun, Xiaoyang; Qin, Chenglu

    2018-03-01

    The textile industry has a high environmental impact so that implementing cleaner production audit is an effective way to achieve energy conservation and emissions reduction. But the evaluation method in current cleaner production audit divided the evaluation of CPOs into two parts: environment and economy. The evaluation index system was constructed from three criteria of environment benefits, economy benefits and product performance; weights of five indicators were determined by combination weights of entropy method and factor weight sorting method. Then efficiencies were evaluated comprehensively. The results showed that the best alkali recovery option was the nanofiltration membrane method (S=0.80).

  20. Evaluation of long-term natural gas marketing agreements: An application of commodity forward and option pricing theory

    Salahor, G.S.; Laughton, D.G.

    1993-01-01

    Methods that have been empirically validated in the analysis of short-term traded securities are adapted to evaluate long-term natural gas direct-sale contracts. A sample contract is examined from the perspective of the producer, and analyzed as a series of forward and option contracts. The assessment of contract value is based on the gas price forecast, the volatility in that forecast, and the valuation of risk caused by that volatility. The method presented allows the gas producer to quantify these elements, and to evaluate the variety of terms encountered in direct-sale natural gas agreements, including features such as load factors and penalty charges. The analysis uses as inputs a probabilistic price forecast and a determination of a price of risk for gas prices. Once the forecast volatility is derived from the probabilistic forecast, the forward contracts imbedded in the long-term gas contract can be valued with a risk-discounting model, and optional aspects can be evaluated using the Black-Scholes option pricing method. 10 refs., 3 figs., 2 tabs

  1. Community Options Model): Using Artificial Intelligence for Transportation Planning and Community Decision Making

    1997-01-01

    This paper describes the Community Options Model for Transportation-Related Issues (COMTRI) designed to estimate the social and economic impacts of highway realignments on rural Michigan communities for the Michigan Department of Transportation (MDOT...

  2. Recovery of time-dependent volatility in option pricing model

    Deng, Zui-Cha; Hon, Y. C.; Isakov, V.

    2016-11-01

    In this paper we investigate an inverse problem of determining the time-dependent volatility from observed market prices of options with different strikes. Due to the non linearity and sparsity of observations, an analytical solution to the problem is generally not available. Numerical approximation is also difficult to obtain using most of the existing numerical algorithms. Based on our recent theoretical results, we apply the linearisation technique to convert the problem into an inverse source problem from which recovery of the unknown volatility function can be achieved. Two kinds of strategies, namely, the integral equation method and the Landweber iterations, are adopted to obtain the stable numerical solution to the inverse problem. Both theoretical analysis and numerical examples confirm that the proposed approaches are effective. The work described in this paper was partially supported by a grant from the Research Grant Council of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (Project No. CityU 101112) and grants from the NNSF of China (Nos. 11261029, 11461039), and NSF grants DMS 10-08902 and 15-14886 and by Emylou Keith and Betty Dutcher Distinguished Professorship at the Wichita State University (USA).

  3. The modified Black-Scholes model via constant elasticity of variance for stock options valuation

    Edeki, S. O.; Owoloko, E. A.; Ugbebor, O. O.

    2016-02-01

    In this paper, the classical Black-Scholes option pricing model is visited. We present a modified version of the Black-Scholes model via the application of the constant elasticity of variance model (CEVM); in this case, the volatility of the stock price is shown to be a non-constant function unlike the assumption of the classical Black-Scholes model.

  4. Pricing Vulnerable Options with Market Prices of Common Jump Risks under Regime-Switching Models

    Miao Han

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates the valuation of vulnerable European options considering the market prices of common systematic jump risks under regime-switching jump-diffusion models. The way of regime-switching Esscher transform is adopted to identify an equivalent martingale measure for pricing vulnerable European options. Explicit analytical pricing formulae for vulnerable European options are derived by risk-neutral pricing theory. For comparison, the other two cases are also considered separately. The first case considers all jump risks as unsystematic risks while the second one assumes all jumps risks to be systematic risks. Numerical examples for the valuation of vulnerable European options are provided to illustrate our results and indicate the influence of the market prices of jump risks on the valuation of vulnerable European options.

  5. The EMEFS model evaluation

    Barchet, W.R.; Dennis, R.L.; Seilkop, S.K.; Banic, C.M.; Davies, D.; Hoff, R.M.; Macdonald, A.M.; Mickle, R.E.; Padro, J.; Puckett, K.; Byun, D.; McHenry, J.N.; Karamchandani, P.; Venkatram, A.; Fung, C.; Misra, P.K.; Hansen, D.A.; Chang, J.S.

    1991-12-01

    The binational Eulerian Model Evaluation Field Study (EMEFS) consisted of several coordinated data gathering and model evaluation activities. In the EMEFS, data were collected by five air and precipitation monitoring networks between June 1988 and June 1990. Model evaluation is continuing. This interim report summarizes the progress made in the evaluation of the Regional Acid Deposition Model (RADM) and the Acid Deposition and Oxidant Model (ADOM) through the December 1990 completion of a State of Science and Technology report on model evaluation for the National Acid Precipitation Assessment Program (NAPAP). Because various assessment applications of RADM had to be evaluated for NAPAP, the report emphasizes the RADM component of the evaluation. A protocol for the evaluation was developed by the model evaluation team and defined the observed and predicted values to be used and the methods by which the observed and predicted values were to be compared. Scatter plots and time series of predicted and observed values were used to present the comparisons graphically. Difference statistics and correlations were used to quantify model performance. 64 refs., 34 figs., 6 tabs

  6. The EMEFS model evaluation

    Barchet, W.R. (Pacific Northwest Lab., Richland, WA (United States)); Dennis, R.L. (Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC (United States)); Seilkop, S.K. (Analytical Sciences, Inc., Durham, NC (United States)); Banic, C.M.; Davies, D.; Hoff, R.M.; Macdonald, A.M.; Mickle, R.E.; Padro, J.; Puckett, K. (Atmospheric Environment Service, Downsview, ON (Canada)); Byun, D.; McHenry, J.N.

    1991-12-01

    The binational Eulerian Model Evaluation Field Study (EMEFS) consisted of several coordinated data gathering and model evaluation activities. In the EMEFS, data were collected by five air and precipitation monitoring networks between June 1988 and June 1990. Model evaluation is continuing. This interim report summarizes the progress made in the evaluation of the Regional Acid Deposition Model (RADM) and the Acid Deposition and Oxidant Model (ADOM) through the December 1990 completion of a State of Science and Technology report on model evaluation for the National Acid Precipitation Assessment Program (NAPAP). Because various assessment applications of RADM had to be evaluated for NAPAP, the report emphasizes the RADM component of the evaluation. A protocol for the evaluation was developed by the model evaluation team and defined the observed and predicted values to be used and the methods by which the observed and predicted values were to be compared. Scatter plots and time series of predicted and observed values were used to present the comparisons graphically. Difference statistics and correlations were used to quantify model performance. 64 refs., 34 figs., 6 tabs.

  7. Evaluation of waste management options in view of long-term maintenance-free landfills

    Brunner, P.H.; Doeberl, G.; Huber, R.; Eder, M.; Pierrard, R.; Schoenbaeck, W.; Fruehwirth, W.; Hutterer, H.; Woeginger, H.

    2001-01-01

    The present case study compares and evaluates different waste management options with special consideration to their long-term implications. Multiple scenarios of these options were created and investigated as to which of term best fulfilled the goals of the Austrian waste management act (Abfallwirtschaftgesetz, AWG). Serving as a basis for this study, an elaborated model of the Austrian waste management, as described in GUA and IFIP (1998, 'Management of Household and Household-like Waste in Austria'), was used. Alterations to the GUA and IFIP study were done in order to best fulfill the needs of this assessment. Household and household-like waste, as well as municipal sewage sludge have been defined as the system input. The following list of scenarios were investigated against an up-dated status-quo (P0): M1 maximum landfilling of untreated waste; M2a maximum incineration without any after treatment; M2b maximum incineration with cement stabilization of the residual material; M2c maximum high temperature process; M3a maximum mechanical-biological treatment with the light fraction from sorting and splitting processed in a fluidized-bed furnace; M3b maximum mechanical-biological treatment with the light fraction from sorting and splitting processed in a rotary kiln for use in the cement industry; M3c maximum mechanical-biological treatment with the high caloric heavy fraction after decomposition processed in a fluidized-bed furnace; M3d maximum mechanical-biological treatment with the high caloric heavy fraction after decomposition processed in a rotary kiln for use in the cement industry. In order to oblige to the precautionary principle of the AWG, each of the scenarios were investigated, with regards to the short, middle, and long-term landfills behaviors of the deposited residual material. The macro-economical Cost-Benefit-Analysis (CBA) was used in the assessment. Additionally a so-called 'modified-Cost-Effect-Analysis' (MCEA) was developed. Unlike the

  8. Modelling and Simulation for Requirements Engineering and Options Analysis

    2010-05-01

    should be performed to work successfully in the domain; and process-based techniques model the processes that occur in the work domain. There is a crisp ...acad/sed/sedres/ dm /erg/cwa. DRDC Toronto CR 2010-049 39 23. Can the current technique for developing simulation models for assessments

  9. Model risk analysis for risk management and option pricing

    Kerkhof, F.L.J.

    2003-01-01

    Due to the growing complexity of products in financial markets, market participants rely more and more on quantitative models for trading and risk management decisions. This introduces a fairly new type of risk, namely, model risk. In the first part of this thesis we investigate the quantitative

  10. Modelling Callable Annuity Bonds with Interest-Only Optionality

    Holst, Anders; Nalholm, Morten

    that they are affected by the I-O feature, but only to a limited extent. Finally, a model of heterogenousprepayment decisions is incorporated into the framework. The model is extended to modelheterogeneity in the I-O exercise decisions. The incorporation of heterogeneity in borrowerdecisions is found to lead...

  11. Evaluation of supplier obligation policy options: Report for DTI and DEFRA

    Radov, Daniel; Klevnas, Per; Nagler, David

    2007-05-23

    This report examines various policy design options for a future 'Supplier Obligation' to promote energy efficiency in the domestic sector. It examines possible reasons that low-cost energy efficiency measures have not been taken up to the extent predicted by simple models of household financial decision-making. Having characterised these 'barriers' to energy efficiency we review a range of policy designs that could be considered to reduce household CO{sub 2} emissions. We then evaluate these options against a range of criteria and suggest areas for further research. There is a substantial literature on the barriers to energy efficiency both within households and more generally across the economy. Based on this literature, w e have identified seven categories of 'barriers'. Briefly, these include: Basic financial barriers: These include the potentially higher (upfront) costs of energy efficient products and the interest rates available to households; Hidden costs: These include 'transaction costs' associated with finding reputable providers, time costs of disruption, and the costs of differences in quality of product or service - all of which may reduce the net benefit derived from efficiency measures. Lack of information: If households do not know their level of energy expenditure, how energy use can be reduced, by how much, or at what cost, they are unlikely to consider investing in energy efficiency. Risks and uncertainty: Uncertainty about future energy prices or period of tenure may deter households from investing, since they cannot be assured of future savings. In addition, households may be wary of the risk associated with new (or unfamiliar) products or services. Poorly aligned incentives: The most commonly cited barrier of this kind is the 'landlord-tenant split, whereby landlords under-invest in energy-efficiency because tenants pay energy bills, or tenants do not economise on energy because the landlord pays

  12. A review of methodologies applied in Australian practice to evaluate long-term coastal adaptation options

    Timothy David Ramm

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Rising sea levels have the potential to alter coastal flooding regimes around the world and local governments are beginning to consider how to manage uncertain coastal change. In doing so, there is increasing recognition that such change is deeply uncertain and unable to be reliably described with probabilities or a small number of scenarios. Characteristics of methodologies applied in Australian practice to evaluate long-term coastal adaptation options are reviewed and benchmarked against two state-of-the-art international methods suited for conditions of uncertainty (Robust Decision Making and Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways. Seven out of the ten Australian case studies assumed the uncertain parameters, such as sea level rise, could be described deterministically or stochastically when identifying risk and evaluating adaptation options across multi-decadal periods. This basis is not considered sophisticated enough for long-term decision-making, implying that Australian practice needs to increase the use of scenarios to explore a much larger uncertainty space when assessing the performance of adaptation options. Two Australian case studies mapped flexible adaptation pathways to manage uncertainty, and there remains an opportunity to incorporate quantitative methodologies to support the identification of risk thresholds. The contextual framing of risk, including the approach taken to identify risk (top-down or bottom-up and treatment of uncertain parameters, were found to be fundamental characteristics that influenced the methodology selected to evaluate adaptation options. The small sample of case studies available suggests that long-term coastal adaptation in Australian is in its infancy and there is a timely opportunity to guide local government towards robust methodologies for developing long-term coastal adaptation plans.

  13. ASTM STANDARD GUIDE FOR EVALUATING DISPOSAL OPTIONS FOR REUSE OF CONCRETE FROM NUCLEAR FACILITY DECOMMISSIONING

    Phillips, Ann Marie; Meservey, Richard H.

    2003-01-01

    Within the nuclear industry, many contaminated facilities that require decommissioning contain huge volumes of concrete. This concrete is generally disposed of as low-level waste at a high cost. Much of the concrete is lightly contaminated and could be reused as roadbed, fill material, or aggregate for new concrete, thus saving millions of dollars. However, because of the possibility of volumetric contamination and the lack of a method to evaluate the risks and costs of reusing concrete, reuse is rarely considered. To address this problem, Argonne National Laboratory-East (ANL-E) and the Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory teamed to write a ''concrete protocol'' to help evaluate the ramifications of reusing concrete within the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE). This document, titled the Protocol for Development of Authorized Release Limits for Concrete at U.S. Department of Energy Site (1) is based on ANL-E's previously developed scrap metal recycle protocols; on the 10-step method outlined in DOE's draft handbook, Controlling Release for Reuse or Recycle of Property Containing Residual Radioactive Material (2); and on DOE Order 4500.5, Radiation Protection of the Public and the Environment (3). The DOE concrete protocol was the basis for the ASTM Standard Guide for Evaluating Disposal Options for Concrete from Nuclear Facility Decommissioning, which was written to make the information available to a wider audience outside DOE. The resulting ASTM Standard Guide is a more concise version that can be used by the nuclear industry worldwide to evaluate the risks and costs of reusing concrete from nuclear facility decommissioning. The bulk of the ASTM Standard Guide focuses on evaluating the dose and cost for each disposal option. The user calculates these from the detailed formulas and tabulated data provided, then compares the dose and cost for each disposal option to select the best option that meets regulatory requirements. With this information

  14. Perpetual American put options in a level-dependent volatility model

    Ekström, Erik

    2003-01-01

    We find the explicit value of perpetual American put options in the constant elasticity of variance model using the concept of smooth fit. We show that the price is increasing in the volatility and convex in the underlying stock price. Moreover, as the model converges to the standard Black and Scholes model, the value of the put is shown to approach the `correct' limit.

  15. Modelling Options for Policy Impact Analysis on African Dairy Farms

    Oghaiki Asaah NDAMBI

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Studies on the priorities for agricultural research in Eastern and CentralAfrica concluded that milk is the most important commodity for research anddevelopment in the region, based on its potential contribution to the agriculturalGDP. It has been presumed that, the right policies, marketing systems and technicalsupport must be sought for dairy development in Africa. In order to determine theright development pattern, appropriate analytical tools must be applied. The TIPICAL(Technology Impact Policy Impact model was used to analyse the impact ofdifferent policies on two typical dairy farming systems in Uganda, which accountfor more than 70% of milk produced in the country. Seven influential policy areaswere also identified: provision of veterinary services, consumption promotion,marketing promotion, input provision, credit access improvement, milk qualityimprovement and genetic improvement. In general, the policy impacts are very littleon farms with local cows but can be magnified up to threefold, if the farms havegraded cows. Policies which improve farmers’ accessibility to markets have thegreatest impacts. The results obtained from this model were compared to thoseusing the EXTRAPOLATE model. This comparison shows that both models couldcomplement each other in analysing policy impacts on African dairy farms.However, differences in results from the models indicate that more focus should bemade on farmers’ willingness to adopt new technology.

  16. Equilibrium Asset and Option Pricing under Jump-Diffusion Model with Stochastic Volatility

    Xinfeng Ruan

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available We study the equity premium and option pricing under jump-diffusion model with stochastic volatility based on the model in Zhang et al. 2012. We obtain the pricing kernel which acts like the physical and risk-neutral densities and the moments in the economy. Moreover, the exact expression of option valuation is derived by the Fourier transformation method. We also discuss the relationship of central moments between the physical measure and the risk-neutral measure. Our numerical results show that our model is more realistic than the previous model.

  17. Radiological assessments of land disposal options: recent model developments

    Fearn, H.S.; Pinner, A.V.; Hemming, C.R.

    1984-10-01

    This report describes progress in the development of methodologies and models for assessing the radiological impact of the disposal of low and intermediate level wastes by (i) shallow land burial in simple trenches (land 1), (ii) shallow land burial in engineered facilities (land 2), and (iii) emplacement in mined repositories or existing cavities (land 3/4). In particular the report describes wasteform leaching models, for unconditioned and cemented waste, the role of engineered barriers of a shallow land burial facility in reducing the magnitude of doses arising from groundwater contact and a detailed consideration of the interactions between radioactive carbon and various media. (author)

  18. Evaluation of Cloud Computing Hidden Benefits by Using Real Options Analysis

    Pavel Náplava

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Cloud computing technologies have brought new attributes to the IT world. One of them is a flexibility of IT resources. It enables effectively both to downsize and upsize the capacity of IT resources in real time. Requirements for IT size change defines business strategy and actual market state. IT costs are not stable but dynamic in this case. Standard investment valuation methods (both static and dynamic are not able to include the flexibility attribute to the evaluation of IT projects. This article describes the application of the Real Options Analysis method for the valuation of the cloud computing flexibility. The method compares costs of the on-premise and cloud computing solutions by combining put and call option valuation. Cloud computing providers can use the method as an advanced tool that explains hidden benefits of cloud computing. Unexperienced cloud computing customers can simulate the market behavior and better plan necessary IT investments.

  19. Introducing Program Evaluation Models

    Raluca GÂRBOAN

    2008-02-01

    Full Text Available Programs and project evaluation models can be extremely useful in project planning and management. The aim is to set the right questions as soon as possible in order to see in time and deal with the unwanted program effects, as well as to encourage the positive elements of the project impact. In short, different evaluation models are used in order to minimize losses and maximize the benefits of the interventions upon small or large social groups. This article introduces some of the most recently used evaluation models.

  20. Use of population viability analysis to evaluate CITES trade-management options for threatened marine fishes.

    Curtis, Janelle M R; Vincent, Amanda C J

    2008-10-01

    Achieving multiple conservation objectives can be challenging, particularly under high uncertainty. Having agreed to limit seahorse (Hippocampus) exports to sustainable levels, signatories to the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES) were offered the option of a single 10-cm minimum size limit (MSL) as an interim management measure for all Hippocampus species (> or =34). Although diverse stakeholders supported the recommended MSL, its biological and socioeconomic implications were not assessed quantitatively. We combined population viability analysis, model sensitivity analysis, and economic information to evaluate the trade-off between conservation threat to and long-term cumulative income from these exploited marine fishes of high conservation concern. We used the European long-snouted seahorse (Hippocampus guttulatus) as a representative species to compare the performance of MSLs set at alternative biological reference points. Our sensitivity analyses showed that in most of our scenarios, setting the MSL just above size at maturity (9.7 cm in H. guttulatus) would not prevent exploited populations from becoming listed as vulnerable. By contrast, the relative risk of decline and extinction were almost halved--at a cost of only a 5.6% reduction in long-term catches--by increasing the MSL to the size reached after at least one full reproductive season. On the basis of our analysis, a precautionary increase in the MSL could be compatible with sustaining fishers' livelihoods and international trade. Such management tactics that aid species conservation and have minimal effects on long term catch trends may help bolster the case for CITES trade management of other valuable marine fishes.

  1. Options and pitfalls of normal tissues complication probability models

    Dorr, Wolfgang

    2011-01-01

    Full text: Technological improvements in the physical administration of radiotherapy have led to increasing conformation of the treatment volume (TV) with the planning target volume (PTV) and of the irradiated volume (IV) with the TV. In this process of improvement of the physical quality of radiotherapy, the total volumes of organs at risk exposed to significant doses have significantly decreased, resulting in increased inhomogeneities in the dose distributions within these organs. This has resulted in a need to identify and quantify volume effects in different normal tissues. Today, irradiated volume today must be considered a 6t h 'R' of radiotherapy, in addition to the 5 'Rs' defined by Withers and Steel in the mid/end 1980 s. The current status of knowledge of these volume effects has recently been summarized for many organs and tissues by the QUANTEC (Quantitative Analysis of Normal Tissue Effects in the Clinic) initiative [Int. J. Radiat. Oncol. BioI. Phys. 76 (3) Suppl., 2010]. However, the concept of using dose-volume histogram parameters as a basis for dose constraints, even without applying any models for normal tissue complication probabilities (NTCP), is based on (some) assumptions that are not met in clinical routine treatment planning. First, and most important, dose-volume histogram (DVH) parameters are usually derived from a single, 'snap-shot' CT-scan, without considering physiological (urinary bladder, intestine) or radiation induced (edema, patient weight loss) changes during radiotherapy. Also, individual variations, or different institutional strategies of delineating organs at risk are rarely considered. Moreover, the reduction of the 3-dimentional dose distribution into a '2dimensl' DVH parameter implies that the localization of the dose within an organ is irrelevant-there are ample examples that this assumption is not justified. Routinely used dose constraints also do not take into account that the residual function of an organ may be

  2. Technical and economic evaluation of controlled disposal options for very low level radioactive wastes

    Robinson, P.J.; Vance, J.N.

    1990-08-01

    Over the past several years, there has been considerable interest by the nuclear industry in the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) explicitly defined an activity level in plant waste materials at which the radiological impacts would be so low as to be considered Below Regulatory Concern (BRC). In January 1989, Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) completed an extensive industry research effort to develop the technical bases for establishing criteria for the disposal of very low activity wastes in ordinary disposal facilities. The Nuclear Management and Resources Council (NUMARC), with assistance from the Edison Electric Institute (EEI) and the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI), drafted a petition titled: ''Petition for Rulemaking Regarding Disposal of Below Regulatory Concern Radioactive Wastes from Commercial Nuclear Power Plants.'' Subsequent to the industry making a final decision for submittal of the drafted BRC petition, EPRI was requested to evaluate the technical and economic impact of six BRC options. These options are: take no action in pursuing a BRC waste exemption, petition the NRC for authorization to disposal of any BRC waste in any ordinary disposal facility, limit disposal of BRC waste to the nuclear power plant site, limit disposal of BRC waste to the nuclear power plant site and other utility owned property, petition for a mixed waste exemption, and petition for single waste stream exemptions in sequence (i.e. soil, followed by sewage sludge, etc.). The petition and technical bases were written to support the disposal of any BRC waste type in any ordinary disposal facility. These documents do not provide all of the technical and economic information needed to completely assessment the BRC options. This report provides the technical and economic basis for a range of options concerning disposal of very low activity wastes. 3 figs., 20 tabs

  3. Data modeling and evaluation

    Bauge, E.; Hilaire, S.

    2006-01-01

    This lecture is devoted to the nuclear data evaluation process, during which the current knowledge (experimental or theoretical) of nuclear reactions is condensed and synthesised into a computer file (the evaluated data file) that application codes can process and use for simulation calculations. After an overview of the content of evaluated nuclear data files, we describe the different methods used for evaluating nuclear data. We specifically focus on the model based approach which we use to evaluate data in the continuum region. A few examples, coming from the day to day practice of data evaluation will illustrate this lecture. Finally, we will discuss the most likely perspectives for improvement of the evaluation process in the next decade. (author)

  4. Low level radioactive waste disposal: An evaluation of reports comparing ocean and land based disposal options

    1990-05-01

    This document evaluates reports presenting comparative assessments of land and sea disposal options for low and intermediate level radioactive waste. It was performed following a request by the LDC to the IAEA. In this evaluation, IAEA Safety Series No. 65 ''Environmental Assessment Methodologies for Sea Dumping of Radioactive Wastes'', was used as the main reference in reviewing the comparative assessments made to date. IAEA Safety Series No. 65 gives guidance on the performance of comparative assessments of the different options, and provides a list and scheme of factors to be considered. 5 studies were transmitted by the Contracting Parties and considered in this review. A larger number of reports was not considered in this effort on the basis that the evaluation would be most effective if directed at those studies which specifically compared ocean disposal with land based disposal in a consistent manner. It is not the purpose of this report to state whether one document is better than another or whether one report forms a good blueprint for future assessments. This would require a different type of review and is outside the scope of this document. Indeed since the purposes of the five reports were originally so different it would not be possible to produce such a ranking and any attempts in that direction would be very misleading. 11 refs, 3 tabs

  5. Preliminary evaluation of crisis-relocation fallout-shelter options. Volume 2. Detailed analysis

    Santini, D.J.; Clinch, J.M.; Davis, F.H.; Hill, L.G.; Lynch, E.P.; Tanzman, E.A.; Wernette, D.R.

    1982-12-01

    This report presents a preliminary, detailed evaluation of various shelter options for use if the President orders crisis relocation of the US urban population because of strong expectation of a nuclear war. The availability of livable shelter space at 40 ft 2 per person (congregate-care space) by state is evaluated. Options are evaluated for construction of fallout shelters allowing 10 ft 2 per person - such shelters are designed to provide 100% survival at projected levels of radioactive fallout. The FEMA concept of upgrading existing buildings to act as fallout shelters can, in principle, provide adequate shelter throughout most of the US. Exceptions are noted and remedies proposed. In terms of upgrading existing buildings to fallout shelter status, great benefits are possible by turning away from a standard national approach and adopting a more site-specific approach. Existing FEMA research provides a solid foundation for successful crisis relocation planning, but the program can be refined by making suitable modifications in its locational, engineering, and institutionally specific elements

  6. Preliminary evaluation of crisis-relocation fallout-shelter options. Volume 2. Detailed analysis

    Santini, D.J.; Clinch, J.M.; Davis, F.H.; Hill, L.G.; Lynch, E.P.; Tanzman, E.A.; Wernette, D.R.

    1982-12-01

    This report presents a preliminary, detailed evaluation of various shelter options for use if the President orders crisis relocation of the US urban population because of strong expectation of a nuclear war. The availability of livable shelter space at 40 ft/sup 2/ per person (congregate-care space) by state is evaluated. Options are evaluated for construction of fallout shelters allowing 10 ft/sup 2/ per person - such shelters are designed to provide 100% survival at projected levels of radioactive fallout. The FEMA concept of upgrading existing buildings to act as fallout shelters can, in principle, provide adequate shelter throughout most of the US. Exceptions are noted and remedies proposed. In terms of upgrading existing buildings to fallout shelter status, great benefits are possible by turning away from a standard national approach and adopting a more site-specific approach. Existing FEMA research provides a solid foundation for successful crisis relocation planning, but the program can be refined by making suitable modifications in its locational, engineering, and institutionally specific elements.

  7. Preliminary evaluation of crisis-relocation fallout-shelter options. Volume 1. Summary

    Santini, D.J.; Clinch, J.M.; Davis, F.H.; Hill, L.G.; Lynch, E.P.; Tanzman, E.A.; Wernette, D.R.

    1982-03-01

    This report, prepared for the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), presents a summary evaluation of various shelter options for use in the case where the President orders crisis relocation of the US urban population because of strong expectation of a nuclear war. The availability of livable shelter space at 40 ft 2 per person (congregate-care space) by state is evaluated. Options are evaluated for construction of fallout shelters allowing 10 ft 2 per person - such shelters are designed to provide 100% survival at projected levels of radioactive fallout. The authors find that the FEMA concept of upgrading existing buildings to act as fallout shelters can, in principle, provide adequate shelter throughout most of the US. Exceptions are noted and remedies proposed. The authors also find that, in terms of upgrading existing buildings to fallout shelter status, great benefits are possible by turning away from a standard national approach and adopting a more site-specific approach. Existing FEMA research provides a solid foundation for successful crisis relocation planning, but the program can be refined by making suitable modifications in its locational, engineering, and institutionally specific elements

  8. Contribution to the economic impact assessment of policy options to regulate animal cloning for food production with an economic simulation model

    Koen Dillen; Emanuele Ferrari; Pascal Tillie; George Philippidis; Sophie Helaine

    2013-01-01

    The EU is currently evaluating different policy options towards the use of cloning or products derived from cloned animals in the food chain. This study presents a first attempt to quantify the likely effects of different policy scenarios on international trade and EU domestic production. In the context of the Impact Asessment process the JRC was requested to simulate via a modelling study the economic impact of selected policy options. Based on a literature review and the specific constra...

  9. Explaining the level of credit spreads: Option-implied jump risk premia in a firm value model

    Cremers, K.J.M.; Driessen, J.; Maenhout, P.

    2008-01-01

    We study whether option-implied jump risk premia can explain the high observed level of credit spreads. We use a structural jump-diffusion firm value model to assess the level of credit spreads generated by option-implied jump risk premia. Prices and returns of equity index and individual options

  10. Pricing Asian Interest Rate Options with a Three-Factor HJM Model

    Claudio Henrique Barbedo

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available Pricing interest rate derivatives is a challenging task that has attracted the attention of many researchers in recent decades. Portfolio and risk managers, policymakers, traders and more generally all market participants are looking for valuable information from derivative instruments. We use a standard procedure to implement the HJM model and to price IDI options. We intend to assess the importance of the principal components of pricing and interest rate hedging derivatives in Brazil, one of the major emerging markets. Our results indicate that the HJM model consistently underprices IDI options traded in the over-the-counter market while it overprices long-term options traded in the exchange studied. We also find a direct relationship between time to maturity and pricing error and a negative relation with moneyness.

  11. Integrated Assessment Model Evaluation

    Smith, S. J.; Clarke, L.; Edmonds, J. A.; Weyant, J. P.

    2012-12-01

    Integrated assessment models of climate change (IAMs) are widely used to provide insights into the dynamics of the coupled human and socio-economic system, including emission mitigation analysis and the generation of future emission scenarios. Similar to the climate modeling community, the integrated assessment community has a two decade history of model inter-comparison, which has served as one of the primary venues for model evaluation and confirmation. While analysis of historical trends in the socio-economic system has long played a key role in diagnostics of future scenarios from IAMs, formal hindcast experiments are just now being contemplated as evaluation exercises. Some initial thoughts on setting up such IAM evaluation experiments are discussed. Socio-economic systems do not follow strict physical laws, which means that evaluation needs to take place in a context, unlike that of physical system models, in which there are few fixed, unchanging relationships. Of course strict validation of even earth system models is not possible (Oreskes etal 2004), a fact borne out by the inability of models to constrain the climate sensitivity. Energy-system models have also been grappling with some of the same questions over the last quarter century. For example, one of "the many questions in the energy field that are waiting for answers in the next 20 years" identified by Hans Landsberg in 1985 was "Will the price of oil resume its upward movement?" Of course we are still asking this question today. While, arguably, even fewer constraints apply to socio-economic systems, numerous historical trends and patterns have been identified, although often only in broad terms, that are used to guide the development of model components, parameter ranges, and scenario assumptions. IAM evaluation exercises are expected to provide useful information for interpreting model results and improving model behavior. A key step is the recognition of model boundaries, that is, what is inside

  12. Training effectiveness evaluation model

    Penrose, J.B.

    1993-01-01

    NAESCO's Training Effectiveness Evaluation Model (TEEM) integrates existing evaluation procedures with new procedures. The new procedures are designed to measure training impact on organizational productivity. TEEM seeks to enhance organizational productivity through proactive training focused on operation results. These results can be identified and measured by establishing and tracking performance indicators. Relating training to organizational productivity is not easy. TEEM is a team process. It offers strategies to assess more effectively organizational costs and benefits of training. TEEM is one organization's attempt to refine, manage and extend its training evaluation program

  13. On the Perpetual American Put Options for Level Dependent Volatility Models with Jumps

    Bayraktar, Erhan

    2007-01-01

    We prove that the perpetual American put option price of level dependent volatility model with compound Poisson jumps is convex and is the classical solution of its associated quasi-variational inequality, that it is $C^2$ except at the stopping boundary and that it is $C^1$ everywhere (i.e. the smooth pasting condition always holds).

  14. A tree-based method to price American options in the Heston model

    Vellekoop, M.; Nieuwenhuis, H.

    2009-01-01

    We develop an algorithm to price American options on assets that follow the stochastic volatility model defined by Heston. We use an approach which is based on a modification of a combined tree for stock prices and volatilities, where the number of nodes grows quadratically in the number of time

  15. Incentives for new antibiotics: the Options Market for Antibiotics (OMA) model.

    Brogan, David M; Mossialos, Elias

    2013-11-07

    Antimicrobial resistance is a growing threat resulting from the convergence of biological, economic and political pressures. Investment in research and development of new antimicrobials has suffered secondary to these pressures, leading to an emerging crisis in antibiotic resistance. Current policies to stimulate antibiotic development have proven inadequate to overcome market failures. Therefore innovative ideas utilizing market forces are necessary to stimulate new investment efforts. Employing the benefits of both the previously described Advanced Market Commitment and a refined Call Options for Vaccines model, we describe herein a novel incentive mechanism, the Options Market for Antibiotics. This model applies the benefits of a financial call option to the investment in and purchase of new antibiotics. The goal of this new model is to provide an effective mechanism for early investment and risk sharing while maintaining a credible purchase commitment and incentives for companies to ultimately bring new antibiotics to market. We believe that the Options Market for Antibiotics (OMA) may help to overcome some of the traditional market failures associated with the development of new antibiotics. Additional work must be done to develop a more robust mathematical model to pave the way for practical implementation.

  16. Evaluation of storage/transportation options to support criteria development for the Phase I MRS [Monitored Retrievable Storage

    Sorenson, K.B.; Brown, N.N.; Bennett, P.C.; Lake, W.

    1991-01-01

    The Department of Energy's (DOE) Office of Civilian Waste Management (OCRWM) plans to develop an interim storage facility to enable acceptance of spent fuel in 1998. It is estimated that this interim storage facility would be needed for about two years. A Monitored Retrievable Storage (MRS) facility is anticipated in 2000 and a repository in 2010. Acceptance and transport of spent fuel by DOE/OCRWM in 1998 will require an operating transportation system. Because this interim storage facility is not yet defined, development of an optimally compatible transportation system is not a certainty. In order to assure a transport capability for 1998 acceptance of spent fuel, it was decided that the OCRWM transportation program had to identify likely options for an interim storage facility, including identification of the components needed for compatibility between likely interim storage facility options and transportation. Primary attention was given to existing hardware, although conceptual designs were also considered. A systems-based probabilistic decision model was suggested by Sandia National Laboratories and accepted by DOE/OCRWM's transportation program. Performance of the evaluation task involved several elements of the transportation program. This paper describes the decision model developed to accomplish this task, along with some of the results and conclusions. 1 ref., 4 figs

  17. The Value of Multivariate Model Sophistication: An Application to pricing Dow Jones Industrial Average options

    Rombouts, Jeroen V.K.; Stentoft, Lars; Violante, Francesco

    innovation for a Laplace innovation assumption improves the pricing in a smaller way. Apart from investigating directly the value of model sophistication in terms of dollar losses, we also use the model condence set approach to statistically infer the set of models that delivers the best pricing performance.......We assess the predictive accuracy of a large number of multivariate volatility models in terms of pricing options on the Dow Jones Industrial Average. We measure the value of model sophistication in terms of dollar losses by considering a set 248 multivariate models that differer...

  18. Developmental Education Evaluation Model.

    Perry-Miller, Mitzi; And Others

    A developmental education evaluation model designed to be used at a multi-unit urban community college is described. The purpose of the design was to determine the cost effectiveness/worth of programs in order to initiate self-improvement. A needs assessment was conducted by interviewing and taping the responses of students, faculty, staff, and…

  19. CMAQ Model Evaluation Framework

    CMAQ is tested to establish the modeling system’s credibility in predicting pollutants such as ozone and particulate matter. Evaluation of CMAQ has been designed to assess the model’s performance for specific time periods and for specific uses.

  20. Standard Guide for Evaluating Disposal Options for Concrete from Nuclear Facility Decommissioning

    American Society for Testing and Materials. Philadelphia

    2002-01-01

    1.1 This standard guide defines the process for developing a strategy for dispositioning concrete from nuclear facility decommissioning. It outlines a 10-step method to evaluate disposal options for radioactively contaminated concrete. One of the steps is to complete a detailed analysis of the cost and dose to nonradiation workers (the public); the methodology and supporting data to perform this analysis are detailed in the appendices. The resulting data can be used to balance dose and cost and select the best disposal option. These data, which establish a technical basis to apply to release the concrete, can be used in several ways: (1) to show that the release meets existing release criteria, (2) to establish a basis to request release of the concrete on a case-by-case basis, (3) to develop a basis for establishing release criteria where none exists. 1.2 This standard guide is based on the “Protocol for Development of Authorized Release Limits for Concrete at U.S. Department of Energy Sites,” (1) from ...

  1. Underground storage tank integrated demonstration: Evaluation of pretreatment options for Hanford tank wastes

    Lumetta, G.J.; Wagner, M.J.; Colton, N.G.; Jones, E.O.

    1993-06-01

    Separation science plays a central role inn the pretreatment and disposal of nuclear wastes. The potential benefits of applying chemical separations in the pretreatment of the radioactive wastes stored at the various US Department of Energy sites cover both economic and environmental incentives. This is especially true at the Hanford Site, where the huge volume (>60 Mgal) of radioactive wastes stored in underground tanks could be partitioned into a very small volume of high-level waste (HLW) and a relatively large volume of low-level waste (LLW). The cost associated with vitrifying and disposing of just the HLW fraction in a geologic repository would be much less than those associated with vitrifying and disposing of all the wastes directly. Futhermore, the quality of the LLW form (e.g., grout) would be improved due to the lower inventory of radionuclides present in the LLW stream. In this report, we present the results of an evaluation of the pretreatment options for sludge taken from two different single-shell tanks at the Hanford Site-Tanks 241-B-110 and 241-U-110 (referred to as B-110 and U-110, respectively). The pretreatment options examined for these wastes included (1) leaching of transuranic (TRU) elements from the sludge, and (2) dissolution of the sludge followed by extraction of TRUs and 90 Sr. In addition, the TRU leaching approach was examined for a third tank waste type, neutralized cladding removal waste

  2. A Generic Decomposition Formula for Pricing Vanilla Options under Stochastic Volatility Models

    Raúl Merino

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available We obtain a decomposition of the call option price for a very general stochastic volatility diffusion model, extending a previous decomposition formula for the Heston model. We realize that a new term arises when the stock price does not follow an exponential model. The techniques used for this purpose are nonanticipative. In particular, we also see that equivalent results can be obtained by using Functional Itô Calculus. Using the same generalizing ideas, we also extend to nonexponential models the alternative call option price decomposition formula written in terms of the Malliavin derivative of the volatility process. Finally, we give a general expression for the derivative of the implied volatility under both the anticipative and the nonanticipative cases.

  3. What do you do when the binomial cannot value real options? The LSM model

    S. Alonso

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The Least-Squares Monte Carlo model (LSM model has emerged as the derivative valuation technique with the greatest impact in current practice. As with other options valuation models, the LSM algorithm was initially posited in the field of financial derivatives and its extension to the realm of real options requires considering certain questions which might hinder understanding of the algorithm and which the present paper seeks to address. The implementation of the LSM model combines Monte Carlo simulation, dynamic programming and statistical regression in a flexible procedure suitable for application to valuing nearly all types of corporate investments. The goal of this paper is to show how the LSM algorithm is applied in the context of a corporate investment, thus contributing to the understanding of the principles of its operation.

  4. Integrated model of Korean spent fuel and high level waste disposal options - 16091

    Hwang, Yongsoo; Miller, Ian

    2009-01-01

    This paper describes an integrated model developed by the Korean Atomic Energy Research Institute (KAERI) to simulate options for disposal of spent nuclear fuel (SNF) and reprocessing products in South Korea. A companion paper (Hwang and Miller, 2009) describes a systems-level model of Korean options for spent nuclear fuel (SNF) management in the 21. century. The model addresses alternative design concepts for disposal of SNF of different types (Candu, PWR), high level waste, and fission products arising from a variety of alternative fuel cycle back ends. It uses the GoldSim software to simulate the engineered system, near-field and far-field geosphere, and biosphere, resulting in long-term dose predictions for a variety of receptor groups. The model's results allow direct comparison of alternative repository design concepts, and identification of key parameter uncertainties and contributors to receptor doses. (authors)

  5. Options theory

    Markland, J.T.

    1992-01-01

    Techniques used in conventional project appraisal are mathematically very simple in comparison to those used in reservoir modelling, and in the geosciences. Clearly it would be possible to value assets in mathematically more sophisticated ways if it were meaningful and worthwhile so to do. The DCf approach in common use has recognized limitations; the inability to select a meaningful discount rate being particularly significant. Financial Theory has advanced enormously over the last few years, along with computational techniques, and methods are beginning to appear which may change the way we do project evaluations in practice. The starting point for all of this was a paper by Black and Scholes, which asserts that almost all corporate liabilities can be viewed as options of varying degrees of complexity. Although the financial presentation may be unfamiliar to engineers and geoscientists, some of the concepts used will not be. This paper outlines, in plain English, the basis of option pricing theory for assessing the market value of a project. it also attempts to assess the future role of this type of approach in practical Petroleum Exploration and Engineering economics. Reference is made to relevant published Natural Resource literature

  6. Evaluating cash benefits as real options for a commodity producer in an emerging market

    Fernando Antonio Lucena Aiube

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available The amount of cash a firm should maintain is an old problem tackled by finance literature. The recent advances in finance, mainly in the derivatives area, has opened the opportunity to revisit this subject. Cossin and Hricko (2004 studied the benefits of cash holdings using the Real Options approach. We follow their ideas extending the problem to a specific commodity producer firm in an emerging economy. We evaluate the benefits considering that raising capital takes time (timing benefit and also the benefit of avoiding the issue of securities at unfavorable moments (underpricing benefit. We use numerical procedures to solve the problem. Despite the fact that the results are not totally intuitive, we verify that the timing benefit is much more relevant than that of avoiding the underpricing benefit and that firms in emerging economies have greater advantage holding cash than those in developed economies. There is empirical evidence of this last result in the literature.

  7. Pragmatic geometric model evaluation

    Pamer, Robert

    2015-04-01

    Quantification of subsurface model reliability is mathematically and technically demanding as there are many different sources of uncertainty and some of the factors can be assessed merely in a subjective way. For many practical applications in industry or risk assessment (e. g. geothermal drilling) a quantitative estimation of possible geometric variations in depth unit is preferred over relative numbers because of cost calculations for different scenarios. The talk gives an overview of several factors that affect the geometry of structural subsurface models that are based upon typical geological survey organization (GSO) data like geological maps, borehole data and conceptually driven construction of subsurface elements (e. g. fault network). Within the context of the trans-European project "GeoMol" uncertainty analysis has to be very pragmatic also because of different data rights, data policies and modelling software between the project partners. In a case study a two-step evaluation methodology for geometric subsurface model uncertainty is being developed. In a first step several models of the same volume of interest have been calculated by omitting successively more and more input data types (seismic constraints, fault network, outcrop data). The positions of the various horizon surfaces are then compared. The procedure is equivalent to comparing data of various levels of detail and therefore structural complexity. This gives a measure of the structural significance of each data set in space and as a consequence areas of geometric complexity are identified. These areas are usually very data sensitive hence geometric variability in between individual data points in these areas is higher than in areas of low structural complexity. Instead of calculating a multitude of different models by varying some input data or parameters as it is done by Monte-Carlo-simulations, the aim of the second step of the evaluation procedure (which is part of the ongoing work) is to

  8. Informed public opinion in the Netherlands. Evaluation of CO2 capture and storage technologies in comparison with other CO2 mitigation options

    De Best-Waldhober, M. [Energy Research of the Netherlands ECN, Unit Policy Studies, Radarweg 60, 1043 NT Amsterdam (Netherlands); Daamen, D.D.L. [Centre for Energy and Environmental Studies, Dept. of Psychology, Leiden University, Wassenaarseweg 52, 2333 AK Leiden (Netherlands); Ramirez-Ramirez, A.; Faaij, A. [Copernicus Institute, Faculty of Geosciences, Utrecht University, Budapestlaat 6, 3584 CD Utrecht (Netherlands); Hendriks, C.; De Visser, E. [Ecofys Netherlands, Kanaalweg 16-a, 3526 KL Utrecht (Netherlands)

    2012-09-15

    In this study, 995 respondents in a representative sample of the Dutch general population are set in the situation of policymakers: they are faced with the issue of fulfilling the Dutch demand for energy in 2030 in such a way that emissions of carbon dioxide will be reduced by 50%. In the Information-Choice Questionnaire (ICQ) that was developed for this, respondents evaluated information from experts on seven options for CO2 emission reduction and their consequences. Two CCS options were compared to two energy efficiency options, a wind energy option, a biomass energy option, and a nuclear energy option. Results show that people are not that enthusiastic regarding the two CCS options. These are evaluated 5.3 and 5.9 on average on a scale of 1-10 and not often chosen as one of the three preferred options, but they are also rarely rejected. Most of the other options in the questionnaire were evaluated rather positively, except nuclear energy and the more ambitious efficiency option. Analysis shows that the evaluation of the information regarding consequences moderately influences how options are evaluated overall. The results further indicate that the CCS options are evaluated less positively due to the comparison with other options.

  9. Evaluating options for sustainable energy mixes in South Korea using scenario analysis

    Hong, Sanghyun; Bradshaw, Corey J.A.; Brook, Barry W.

    2013-01-01

    To mitigate greenhouse gas emissions, coal-fired electricity infrastructure needs to be replaced by low-carbon electricity generation options. Here we examine a range of possible alternative scenarios for sustainable electricity generation in South Korea, considering both physical and economic limits of current technologies. The results show that South Korea cannot achieve a 100% renewable energy mix and requires at least 55 GW of backup capacity. Given that constraint, we modelled seven scenarios: (i) the present condition, (ii) the First National Electricity Plan configuration, (iii) renewable energy (including 5 GW photovoltaic) with fuel cells or (iv) natural gas backup, (v) maximum renewable energy (including 75 GW photovoltaic) with natural gas, (vi) maximum nuclear power, and (vii) nuclear power with natural gas. We then quantify levelised cost of electricity, energy security, greenhouse gas emissions, fresh water consumption, heated water discharge, land transformation, air pollutant emissions, radioactive waste disposal, solid waste disposal and safety issues for each modelled mix. Our analysis shows that the maximum nuclear power scenario yields the fewest overall negative impacts, and the maximum renewable energy scenario with fuel cells would have the highest negative impacts. - Highlights: ► Due to physical limits of renewable sources, renewable energy cannot provide total electricity consumption in South Korea. ► A massive expansion of solar power will act to save only a small amount of backup fuel at greatly increased costs. ► A huge supply of natural gas capacity is essential, due to the absence of feasible large-scale energy storage. ► A pathway to maximize renewable energy causes more environmental and economic disadvantages than the status quo. ► Maximizing nuclear power is the most sustainable option for South Korea

  10. Carbon pricing in the EU: Evaluation of different EU ETS reform options

    Brink, Corjan; Vollebergh, Herman R.J.; Werf, Edwin van der

    2016-01-01

    This paper studies various options to support allowance prices in the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS), such as adjusting the cap, an auction reserve price, and fixed and variable carbon taxes in addition to the EU ETS. We use a dynamic computable general equilibrium model that explicitly allows for allowance banking and for a detailed cost-effectiveness analysis at the EU Member State level. We find that tightening the cap provides an ad hoc solution to the fundamental issue of the robustness of the effective carbon price, while introducing a price component to the ETS brings structural carbon price support in times of negative demand shocks for emission allowances. These price-based policies still benefit from the intertemporal flexibility through the banking provision in the EU ETS by re-allocating emissions over time with stronger emission reductions in early years and emission increases in later years. A higher emission price has a larger negative impact on the new Member States' economies than on other Member States. Furthermore, introducing a carbon tax in addition to the EU ETS decreases the price of allowances, resulting in welfare gains for net buyers of allowances while net sellers are worse off. - Highlights: • We analyse reform options for European Union Emission Trading System (EU ETS) with a CGE model. • Variable carbon tax and auction reserve price support carbon price at least cost. • Price-based reforms decrease early emissions but increase later emissions through banking. • New Member States' economies are affected more than others by higher CO_2 prices. • Lower allowance prices due to a carbon tax are unfavourable to net sellers of allowances.

  11. A real option-based model for promoting sustainable energy projects under the clean development mechanism

    Lee, Hyounkyu; Park, Taeil; Kim, Byungil; Kim, Kyeongseok; Kim, Hyoungkwan

    2013-01-01

    The clean development mechanism (CDM) provides a way of assisting sustainable development in developing countries for developed countries to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Despite its intended benefits, the primary CDM market decreased from US$5.8 billion in 2006 to US$1.5 billion in 2010. One of the primary reasons for the reduction of market size is that developed countries as investors have a high level of risks caused by the volatility of the market price for certified emission reductions (CERs). Another issue to be resolved is that developing countries as host countries cannot claim any right to the CERs produced on their own land. This paper presents a real option-based model for both parties (developed and developing countries) to have their fair share of profits and risks by controlling the uncertainty associated with the future value of CERs. A case study illustrated that the proposed model can effectively attract investors to CDM projects leading to mitigation of climate change. - Highlights: ► This study focused on the risks associated with the uncertainty of future CER value in CDM projects. ► A real option-based model was developed for both parties in CDM to have fair share of profit and risk. ► Key variables and boundary conditions were identified for application of real option to CDM. ► The model allowed both parties to own options, which have an identical value. ► Hydropower plant projects in Indonesia were used to illustrate the implementation of the model

  12. Options contracts in the nuclear fuel industry

    Fuller, D.M.

    1995-01-01

    This article discusses options trading in the nuclear fuels industry. Although there now exists no formal options market in the nuclear industry, flexibilities, or embedded options, are actually quite common in the long-term supply contracts. The value of these flexibilities can be estimated by applying the methods used to evaluate options. The method used is the Black-Scholes Model, and it is applied to a number of examples

  13. A PC-based software package for modeling DOE mixed-waste management options

    Abashian, M.S.; Carney, C.; Schum, K.

    1995-02-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Headquarters and associated contractors have developed an IBM PC-based software package that estimates costs, schedules, and public and occupational health risks for a range of mixed-waste management options. A key application of the software package is the comparison of various waste-treatment options documented in the draft Site Treatment Plans prepared in accordance with the requirements of the Federal Facility Compliance Act of 1992. This automated Systems Analysis Methodology consists of a user interface for configuring complexwide or site-specific waste-management options; calculational algorithms for cost, schedule and risk; and user-selected graphical or tabular output of results. The mixed-waste management activities modeled in the automated Systems Analysis Methodology include waste storage, characterization, handling, transportation, treatment, and disposal. Analyses of treatment options identified in the draft Site Treatment Plans suggest potential cost and schedule savings from consolidation of proposed treatment facilities. This paper presents an overview of the automated Systems Analysis Methodology

  14. Evaluation of design options for improving the energy efficiency of an environmentally safe domestic refrigerator-freezer

    Vineyard, E.A.; Sand, J.R. [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States); Bohman, R.H.

    1995-03-01

    In order to reduce greenhouse emissions from power plants and respond to regulatory actions arising from the National Appliance Energy Conservation Act (NAECA), several design options were investigated for improving the energy efficiency of a conventionally designed, domestic refrigerator-freezer. The options, such as improved cabinet insulation and high-efficiency compressor and fans, were incorporated into a prototype refrigerator-freezer cabinet and refrigeration system to produce a unit that is superior from an environmental viewpoint due to its lower energy consumption and the use of refrigerant HFC-134a as a replacement for CFC-12. Baseline energy performance of the original 1993 production refrigerator-freezer, along with cabinet heat load and compressor calorimeter test results, were extensively documented to provide a firm basis for experimentally measured energy savings. A detailed refrigerator system computer model was used to evaluate the energy savings for several design modifications that, collectively, could achieve a targeted energy consumption of 1.00 kWh/d for a 20 ft{sup 3} (570 l) top-mount, automatic-defrost, refrigerator-freezer. The energy consumption goal represents a 50% reduction in the 1993 NAECA standard for units of this size. Following the modeling simulation, laboratory prototypes were fabricated and tested to experimentally verify the analytical results and aid in improving the model in those areas where discrepancies occurred. While the 1.00 kWh/d goal was not achieved with the modifications, a substantial energy efficiency improvement of 22% (1.41 kWh/d) was demonstrated using near-term technologies. It is noted that each improvement exacts a penalty in terms of increased cost or system complexity/reliability. Further work on this project will analyze cost-effectiveness of the design changes and investigate alternative, more-elaborate, refrigeration system changes to further reduce energy consumption.

  15. Option pricing under stochastic volatility: the exponential Ornstein–Uhlenbeck model

    Perelló, Josep; Masoliver, Jaume; Sircar, Ronnie

    2008-01-01

    We study the pricing problem for a European call option when the volatility of the underlying asset is random and follows the exponential Ornstein–Uhlenbeck model. The random diffusion model proposed is a two-dimensional market process that takes a log-Brownian motion to describe price dynamics and an Ornstein–Uhlenbeck subordinated process describing the randomness of the log-volatility. We derive an approximate option price that is valid when (i) the fluctuations of the volatility are larger than its normal level, (ii) the volatility presents a slow driving force, toward its normal level and, finally, (iii) the market price of risk is a linear function of the log-volatility. We study the resulting European call price and its implied volatility for a range of parameters consistent with daily Dow Jones index data

  16. An integrated TSP-GA with EOL cost model for selecting the best EOL option

    Zakri Ghazalli

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents our research works on integrating design for disassembly with cost model for end-of-life (EOL product. This paper has two objectives. The first objective is to optimize disassembly sequence of the EOL product. We integrate a traveling salesman problem approach with genetic algorithm in finding the optimal disassembly sequence for disassembling the EOL product. Based on this optimal sequence, the second objective is to identify the best EOL option. We employ EOL profits and net present value of parts and subassemblies of the EOL product to determine the best EOL option of components and parts of the EOL product. The predicted results showed that the developed cost model has reached a good correspondence with the established methods.

  17. On the Black-Scholes European Option Pricing Model Robustness and Generality

    Takada, Hellinton Hatsuo; de Oliveira Siqueira, José

    2008-11-01

    The common presentation of the widely known and accepted Black-Scholes European option pricing model explicitly imposes some restrictions such as the geometric Brownian motion assumption for the underlying stock price. In this paper, these usual restrictions are relaxed using maximum entropy principle of information theory, Pearson's distribution system, market frictionless and risk-neutrality theories to the calculation of a unique risk-neutral probability measure calibrated with market parameters.

  18. An integrated TSP-GA with EOL cost model for selecting the best EOL option

    Zakri Ghazalli; Atsuo Murata

    2011-01-01

    This paper presents our research works on integrating design for disassembly with cost model for end-of-life (EOL) product. This paper has two objectives. The first objective is to optimize disassembly sequence of the EOL product. We integrate a traveling salesman problem approach with genetic algorithm in finding the optimal disassembly sequence for disassembling the EOL product. Based on this optimal sequence, the second objective is to identify the best EOL option. We employ EOL profits an...

  19. Evaluating Space Weather Architecture Options to Support Human Deep Space Exploration of the Moon and Mars

    Parker, L.; Minow, J.; Pulkkinen, A.; Fry, D.; Semones, E.; Allen, J.; St Cyr, C.; Mertens, C.; Jun, I.; Onsager, T.; Hock, R.

    2018-02-01

    NASA's Engineering and Space Center (NESC) is conducting an independent technical assessment of space environment monitoring and forecasting architecture options to support human and robotic deep space exploration.

  20. Pricing Options and Equity-Indexed Annuities in a Regime-switching Model by Trinomial Tree Method

    Fei Lung Yuen

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we summarize the main idea and results of Yuen and Yang (2009, 2010a, 2010b and provide some results on pricing of Parisian options under the Markov regime-switching model (MRSM. The MRSM allows the parameters of the market model depending on a Markovian process, and the model can reflect the information of the market environment which cannot be modeled solely by linear Gaussian process. However, when the parameters of the stock price model are not constant but governed by a Markovian process, the pricing of the options becomes complex. We present a fast and simple trinomial tree model to price options in MRSM. In recent years, the pricing of modern insurance products, such as Equity-Indexed annuity (EIA and variable annuities (VAs, has become a popular topic. We show here that our trinomial tree model can been used to price EIA with strong path dependent exotic options in the regime switching model.

  1. Using real options to evaluate the flexibility in the deployment of SMR

    Locatelli, G. [Univ. of Lincoln, Lincoln School of Engineering, Brayford Pool, Lincoln LN6 7TS (United Kingdom); Mancini, M. [Politecnico di Milano, Dept. of Management, Economics and Industrial Engineering, Via Lambruschini 4/B, Milano (Italy); Ruiz, F.; Solana, P. [Universidad Politecnica de Madrid, Dep. de Ingenieria de Organizacion, Administracion de Empresas y Estadistica, C/ Jose Gutierrez Abascal, 2, 28006-Madrid (Spain)

    2012-07-01

    According to recent estimations the financial gap between Large Reactors (LR) and Small Medium Reactors (SMRs) seems not as huge as the economy of scale would suggest, so the SMRs are going to be important players of the worldwide nuclear renaissance. POLIMIs INCAS model has been developed to compare the investment in SMR with respect to LR. It provides the value of IRR (Internal Rate of Return), NPV (Net Present Value), LUEC (Levelized Unitary Electricity Cost), up-front investment, etc. The aim of this research is to integrate the actual INCAS model, based on discounted cash flows, with the real option theory to measure flexibility of the investor to expand, defer or abandon a nuclear project, under future uncertainties. The work compares the investment in a large nuclear power plant with a series of smaller, modular nuclear power plants on the same site. As a consequence it compares the benefits of the large power plant, coming from the economy of scale, to the benefit of the modular project (flexibility) concluding that managerial flexibility can be measured and used by an investor to face the investment risks. (authors)

  2. Using real options to evaluate the flexibility in the deployment of SMR

    Locatelli, G.; Mancini, M.; Ruiz, F.; Solana, P.

    2012-01-01

    According to recent estimations the financial gap between Large Reactors (LR) and Small Medium Reactors (SMRs) seems not as huge as the economy of scale would suggest, so the SMRs are going to be important players of the worldwide nuclear renaissance. POLIMIs INCAS model has been developed to compare the investment in SMR with respect to LR. It provides the value of IRR (Internal Rate of Return), NPV (Net Present Value), LUEC (Levelized Unitary Electricity Cost), up-front investment, etc. The aim of this research is to integrate the actual INCAS model, based on discounted cash flows, with the real option theory to measure flexibility of the investor to expand, defer or abandon a nuclear project, under future uncertainties. The work compares the investment in a large nuclear power plant with a series of smaller, modular nuclear power plants on the same site. As a consequence it compares the benefits of the large power plant, coming from the economy of scale, to the benefit of the modular project (flexibility) concluding that managerial flexibility can be measured and used by an investor to face the investment risks. (authors)

  3. Heston Model Calibration in the Brazilian Foreign Exchange (FX Options Market

    Joe Akira Yoshino

    2004-06-01

    Full Text Available Despite the relatively recent advance in the derivative industry, the European FX option market uses simple models such as Black (1976 or Garman and Kohlhagen (1983. This widespread practice hides very important quantitative effects that could be better explored by using alternative pricing models such as the one that incorporates the stochastic volatility features. Understanding and calibrating this type of pricing model represents a challenge in the current state of art in financial engineering, specially in emerging markets that are characterized by strong volatilities, periodic changing regimes and in most case suffering of liquidity, specially during the crisis. In this sense, this paper shows how to implement the Hestons Model for the Brazilian FX option market. This approach uses the volatility matrix provided by a pool of domestic market players. Although the Hestons Model presents a formal analytical solution it does not require simulation-, the closed form solutions show a mathematical complexity. Thus, the main objective of this work is to implement this model in the Brazilian FX market.

  4. Evaluation of natural gas supply options for Southeast and Central Europe: Part 2. Multi-criteria assessment

    Afgan, Naim H.; Carvalho, Maria G.; Pilavachi, Petros A.; Martins, Nelson

    2008-01-01

    Decision making methods are used as a tool for the selection of alternatives to be evaluated on the basis of several criteria. Evaluation of the potential routes for natural gas supply to the Southeast and Central European countries is studied using single and multi-criteria evaluation. The potential options included in this analysis are the: Yamal Route; Nabucco Route; West Balkan Route; LNG Neum Route; and Gas by Wire Route. In part 1, the paper was devoted to the definition of the indicators and to single indicator analysis. In part 2, the analysis is based on multi-criteria evaluation, which comprises the possibility to assess the options under predefined constraints amongst indicators. The paper also describes different methods used for multi-criteria evaluation. This analysis focuses on cases with different priorities defined among individual weighting coefficients with the others having the same value. It was shown that all options under specific constraints can be qualified as promising in the decision making process. It is also concluded that favourite indicator constraints may exaggerate some options

  5. A numerical method to estimate the parameters of the CEV model implied by American option prices: Evidence from NYSE

    Ballestra, Luca Vincenzo; Cecere, Liliana

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • We develop a method to compute the parameters of the CEV model implied by American options. • This is the first procedure for calibrating the CEV model to American option prices. • The proposed approach is extensively tested on the NYSE market. • The novel method turns out to be very efficient in computing the CEV model parameters. • The CEV model provides only a marginal improvement over the lognormal model. - Abstract: We develop a highly efficient procedure to forecast the parameters of the constant elasticity of variance (CEV) model implied by American options. In particular, first of all, the American option prices predicted by the CEV model are calculated using an accurate and fast finite difference scheme. Then, the parameters of the CEV model are obtained by minimizing the distance between theoretical and empirical option prices, which yields an optimization problem that is solved using an ad-hoc numerical procedure. The proposed approach, which turns out to be very efficient from the computational standpoint, is used to test the goodness-of-fit of the CEV model in predicting the prices of American options traded on the NYSE. The results obtained reveal that the CEV model does not provide a very good agreement with real market data and yields only a marginal improvement over the more popular Black–Scholes model.

  6. Evaluation of forward sales and options created through natural gas storage

    Salahor, G.S.; Laughton, D.G.

    1994-01-01

    The deregulation of natural gas markets in North America has resulted in greater quantities of gas being sold under indexed price agreements. As this is occurring, natural gas storage facilities are being developed and opened up for the use of natural gas producers and marketers. While natural gas spot prices continue to exhibit some strong seasonality reflecting higher demand peak in winter, traded futures contract prices tend to discount the expected market price. The elements which contribute to this differential are examined and some of the possible opportunities for the use of gas storage in tandem with other risk management instruments are demonstrated. The specific scenario to be evaluated takes the viewpoint of a natural gas producer considering the storage and later withdrawal of gas to take some advantage of an anticipated seasonal and/or secular price increase, with the objective of locking in future prices for current production. Gas would be stored in a low season and later withdrawn and sold, with the price covered by a futures contract or by a dynamic hedging strategy. The expected returns from a natural gas storage/withdrawal scheme are analyzed and the implications of market volatility, price of risk, the local cost of storage, and observations regarding the convenience yield (a difference between the current spot market price and futures market price for future periods) are presented. Analysis of gas storage proposals of specific duration is included as well as evaluation of potential put options created when the storage duration is not fixed. 6 refs., 4 figs., 4 tabs

  7. Simulating the impact of climate change on rice production in Asia and evaluating options for adaptation.

    Matthews, R.B.; Kropff, M.J.; Horie, T.; Bachelet, D.

    1997-01-01

    The likely effects of climate change caused by increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide levels on rice production in Asia were evaluated using two rice crop simulation models, ORYZA1 and SIMRIW, running under fixed-change' climate scenarios and scenarios predicted for a doubled-CO2 (2xCO2) atmosphere

  8. 78 FR 28864 - Prospective Grant of Start-Up Exclusive Evaluation Option License Agreement: In Vitro Diagnostics...

    2013-05-16

    ... of new blood vessels) and metastasis (spread of cancer). The co-culture system is designed to mimic... contemplating the grant of a Start-Up Exclusive Evaluation Option License Agreement to Advanced Personalized... Angiogenesis and Metastasis in Three Dimensional Co- Cultures'', filed June 10, 2010 (HHS Ref. No. E-281-2007/1...

  9. 78 FR 26794 - Prospective Grant of Start-Up Exclusive Evaluation Option License Agreement: Gene Therapy and...

    2013-05-08

    ... embryonic stem cells or mesenchymal stem cells, which are suitable for cell-based therapy. In contrast to...-Up Exclusive Evaluation Option License Agreement: Gene Therapy and Cell-Based Therapy for Cardiac... the field of use may be limited to ``Gene therapy and cell-based therapy for cardiac arrhythmias in...

  10. An initial evaluation of potential options for managing riparian reserves of the Aquatic Conservation Strategy of the Northwest Forest Plan

    Gordon H. Reeves; Brian R. Pickard; K. Norman. Johnson

    2016-01-01

    The Aquatic Conservation Strategy (ACS) of the Northwest Forest Plan guides management of riparian and aquatic ecosystems on federal lands in western Oregon, western Washington, and northern California. We applied new scientific findings and tools to evaluate two potential options, A and B, for refining interim riparian reserves to meet ACS goals and likely challenges...

  11. Implied Volatility of Interest Rate Options: An Empirical Investigation of the Market Model

    Christiansen, Charlotte; Hansen, Charlotte Strunk

    2002-01-01

    We analyze the empirical properties of the volatility implied in options on the 13-week US Treasury bill rate. These options have not been studied previously. It is shown that a European style put option on the interest rate is equivalent to a call option on a zero-coupon bond. We apply the LIBOR...

  12. Options of system integrated environment modelling in the predicated dynamic cyberspace

    Janková, Martina; Dvořák, Jiří [Institute of Informatics, Faculty of Business and Management, Brno University of Technology, Brno (Czech Republic)

    2015-03-10

    In this article there are briefly mentioned some selected options of contemporary conception of cybernetic system models in the corresponding and possible integratable environment with modern system dynamics thinking and all this in the cyberspace of possible projecting of predicted system characteristics. The key to new capabilities of system integration modelling in the considered cyberspace is mainly the ability to improve the environment and the system integration options, all this with the aim of modern control in the hierarchically arranged dynamic cyberspace, e.g. in the currently desired electronic business with information. The aim of this article is to assess generally the trends in the use of modern modelling methods considering the cybernetics applications verified in practice, modern concept of project management and also the potential integration of artificial intelligence in the new projecting and project management of integratable and intelligent models, e.g. with the optimal structures and adaptable behaviour.The article results from the solution of a specific research partial task at the faculty; especially the moments proving that the new economics will be based more and more on information, knowledge system defined cyberspace of modern management, are stressed in the text.

  13. Options of system integrated environment modelling in the predicated dynamic cyberspace

    Janková, Martina; Dvořák, Jiří

    2015-01-01

    In this article there are briefly mentioned some selected options of contemporary conception of cybernetic system models in the corresponding and possible integratable environment with modern system dynamics thinking and all this in the cyberspace of possible projecting of predicted system characteristics. The key to new capabilities of system integration modelling in the considered cyberspace is mainly the ability to improve the environment and the system integration options, all this with the aim of modern control in the hierarchically arranged dynamic cyberspace, e.g. in the currently desired electronic business with information. The aim of this article is to assess generally the trends in the use of modern modelling methods considering the cybernetics applications verified in practice, modern concept of project management and also the potential integration of artificial intelligence in the new projecting and project management of integratable and intelligent models, e.g. with the optimal structures and adaptable behaviour.The article results from the solution of a specific research partial task at the faculty; especially the moments proving that the new economics will be based more and more on information, knowledge system defined cyberspace of modern management, are stressed in the text

  14. Mathematical modeling for exploring the effects of overtime option, rework, and discontinuous inventory issuing policy on EMQ model

    Singa Wang Chiu

    2018-09-01

    Full Text Available This study employs mathematical modeling to explore the effects of overtime option, rework, and discontinuous end-item issuing policy on the economic manufacturing quantity (EMQ model. Conventional EMQ model assumed that all products fabricated are of good quality and are issued under continuous policy. In real world, however, nonconforming items are randomly produced, due to diverse unexpected factors in fabrication process. When finished items are to be distributed to outside locations, discontinuous multi-shipment policy is often used rather than continuous rule. In addition, with the intention of increasing short-term capacity or shortening replenishment cycle length to smooth the production planning, adopting overtime option can be an effective strategy. To cope with the aforementioned features in real production systems, this study incorporates overtime option, rework, and multi-shipment policy into the EMQ model and explores their joint effects on optimal lot size and number of shipments, and on other relevant system parameters. Mathematical modeling and Hessian matrix equations enable us to derive the optimal policies to the problem. Through the use of numerical example, the applicability of research result is exhibited and a variety of significant effects of these features on the proposed system are revealed.

  15. Options with Extreme Strikes

    Lingjiong Zhu

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available In this short paper, we study the asymptotics for the price of call options for very large strikes and put options for very small strikes. The stock price is assumed to follow the Black–Scholes models. We analyze European, Asian, American, Parisian and perpetual options and conclude that the tail asymptotics for these option types fall into four scenarios.

  16. A rational approach for evaluation and screening of treatment and disposal options for the solar pond sludges at Rocky Flats

    Dickerson, K.S.

    1995-01-01

    This document consists of information about the treatment options for the sludge that is located in the evaporation ponds at the Rocky Flats Plant. The sludges are mixed low-level radioactive wastes whose composition and character were variable. Sludges similar to these are typically treated prior to ultimate disposal. Disposal of treated sludges includes both on-site and off-site options. The rational approach described in this paper is useful for technology evaluation and screening because it provides a format for developing objectives, listing alternatives, and weighing the alternatives against the objectives and against each other

  17. A rational approach for evaluation and screening of treatment and disposal options for the solar pond sludges at Rocky Flats

    Dickerson, K.S.

    1995-12-31

    This document consists of information about the treatment options for the sludge that is located in the evaporation ponds at the Rocky Flats Plant. The sludges are mixed low-level radioactive wastes whose composition and character were variable. Sludges similar to these are typically treated prior to ultimate disposal. Disposal of treated sludges includes both on-site and off-site options. The rational approach described in this paper is useful for technology evaluation and screening because it provides a format for developing objectives, listing alternatives, and weighing the alternatives against the objectives and against each other.

  18. Changing Climate, Challenging Choices: Identifying and Evaluating Climate Change Adaptation Options for Protected Areas Management in Ontario, Canada

    Lemieux, Christopher J.; Scott, Daniel J.

    2011-10-01

    Climate change will pose increasingly significant challenges to managers of parks and other forms of protected areas around the world. Over the past two decades, numerous scientific publications have identified potential adaptations, but their suitability from legal, policy, financial, internal capacity, and other management perspectives has not been evaluated for any protected area agency or organization. In this study, a panel of protected area experts applied a Policy Delphi methodology to identify and evaluate climate change adaptation options across the primary management areas of a protected area agency in Canada. The panel identified and evaluated one hundred and sixty five (165) adaptation options for their perceived desirability and feasibility. While the results revealed a high level of agreement with respect to the desirability of adaptation options and a moderate level of capacity pertaining to policy formulation and management direction, a perception of low capacity for implementation in most other program areas was identified. A separate panel of senior park agency decision-makers used a multiple criterion decision-facilitation matrix to further evaluate the institutional feasibility of the 56 most desirable adaptation options identified by the initial expert panel and to prioritize them for consideration in a climate change action plan. Critically, only two of the 56 adaptation options evaluated by senior decision-makers were deemed definitely implementable, due largely to fiscal and internal capacity limitations. These challenges are common to protected area agencies in developed countries and pervade those in developing countries, revealing that limited adaptive capacity represents a substantive barrier to biodiversity conservation and other protected area management objectives in an era of rapid climate change.

  19. Narrative scenario development based on cross-impact analysis for the evaluation of global-warming mitigation options

    Hayashi, Ayami; Tokimatsu, Koji; Yamamoto, Hiromi; Mori, Shunsuke

    2006-01-01

    Social, technological, economic and environmental issues should be considered comprehensively for the evaluation of global-warming mitigation options. Existing integrated assessment models include assessment of quantitative factors; however, these models do not explicitly consider interactions among qualitative factors in the background - for example, introductions of nuclear power stations interact with social acceptability. In this paper, we applied a technological forecasting method - the cross-impact method - which explicitly deals with the relationships among relevant factors, and we then developed narrative scenarios having consistency with qualitative social contexts. An example of developed scenarios in 2050, assuming the global population and the gross domestic product are the same as those of the A1 scenario of the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios, tells us that: (1) the Internet will be extensively used in all regions; (2) the global unified market will appear; (3) regional cultures will tend to converge; (4) long-term investments (of more than 30 years) will become difficult and therefore nuclear-power stations will not increase so remarkably; (5) the self-sufficient supply and diversification of primary energy sources will not progress so rapidly; and (6) due to the widespread use of the Internet, people will be more educated in global environmental issues and environmental costs will be more socially acceptable

  20. Policy options and their potential effects on Moroccan small farmers and the poor facing increased world food prices: A general equilibrium model analysis

    Diao, Xinshen; Doukkali, Rachid; Yu, Bingxin

    2008-01-01

    "This study evaluates the potential impact of the recent rise in world food prices on the Moroccan economy and possible policy options to respond to it. The study focuses mainly on the poverty effects of such an external shock and the possible policy responses to it. A new social accounting matrix (SAM) and a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model have been developed for this study based on micro-level data in combination with sectoral and economywide data. The CGE model simulations show ...

  1. Symmetry analysis of a model for the exercise of a barrier option

    O'Hara, J. G.; Sophocleous, C.; Leach, P. G. L.

    2013-09-01

    A barrier option takes into account the possibility of an unacceptable change in the price of the underlying stock. Such a change could carry considerable financial loss. We examine one model based upon the Black-Scholes-Merton Equation and determine the functional forms of the barrier function and rebate function which are consistent with a solution of the underlying evolution partial differential equation using the Lie Theory of Extended Groups. The solution is consistent with the possibility of no rebate and the barrier function is very similar to one adopted on an heuristic basis.

  2. A Model-Free No-arbitrage Price Bound for Variance Options

    Bonnans, J. Frederic, E-mail: frederic.bonnans@inria.fr [Ecole Polytechnique, INRIA-Saclay (France); Tan Xiaolu, E-mail: xiaolu.tan@polytechnique.edu [Ecole Polytechnique, CMAP (France)

    2013-08-01

    We suggest a numerical approximation for an optimization problem, motivated by its applications in finance to find the model-free no-arbitrage bound of variance options given the marginal distributions of the underlying asset. A first approximation restricts the computation to a bounded domain. Then we propose a gradient projection algorithm together with the finite difference scheme to solve the optimization problem. We prove the general convergence, and derive some convergence rate estimates. Finally, we give some numerical examples to test the efficiency of the algorithm.

  3. A Positivity-Preserving Numerical Scheme for Nonlinear Option Pricing Models

    Shengwu Zhou

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available A positivity-preserving numerical method for nonlinear Black-Scholes models is developed in this paper. The numerical method is based on a nonstandard approximation of the second partial derivative. The scheme is not only unconditionally stable and positive, but also allows us to solve the discrete equation explicitly. Monotone properties are studied in order to avoid unwanted oscillations of the numerical solution. The numerical results for European put option and European butterfly spread are compared to the standard finite difference scheme. It turns out that the proposed scheme is efficient and reliable.

  4. Evaluation of nasal and oropharyngeal flora in patients with acne vulgaris according to treatment options.

    Ozuguz, Pınar; Callioglu, Elif E; Tulaci, Kamil G; Kacar, Seval D; Balta, Ilknur; Asik, Gulsah; Karatas, Serap; Karaca, Semsettin

    2014-11-01

    The aim of this study was to evaluate changes in nasal and oropharyngeal flora in patients with acne during treatments with tetracycline and isotretinoin. Swab specimens were taken from the right and left nasal cavities and oropharynx of 55 patients with acne and 20 healthy volunteers who were admitted to the dermatology department (Etlik Educational and Research Hospital, Ankara, Turkey) before the administration of treatment and in the third month of treatment. Study participants were divided into four groups as follows: patients with acne on topical treatment only, systemic isotretinoin, and systemic tetracycline, and the control group. Of 55 patients with acne, 18 were male and 37 were female. The mean age of the patients and the control group was 22.21 ± 4.22 and 21.95 ± 7.64, respectively. Staphylococcus aureus was isolated from the nasal flora of five patients, normal flora was suppressed in the oropharyngeal cultures of seven patients, and normal flora grew in the cultures of the other 20 patients who were on tetracycline treatment. On the other hand, normal flora grew in the nasal and oropharyngeal cultures of all the patients who were on isotretinoin treatment. Treatment options and follow-up procedures for acne vulgaris may lead to the development of bacterial resistance and damage to flora. In particular, systemic tetracycline treatment leads to changes in flora of the nose and throat in patients with acne with an increased carriage of S. aureus. Therefore, careful attention should be paid to the duration of tetracycline treatment in order to not increase the risk of disturbance of microbial flora. © 2014 The International Society of Dermatology.

  5. Evaluating topic models with stability

    De Waal, A

    2008-11-01

    Full Text Available Topic models are unsupervised techniques that extract likely topics from text corpora, by creating probabilistic word-topic and topic-document associations. Evaluation of topic models is a challenge because (a) topic models are often employed...

  6. Identifying and Evaluating Options for Improving Sediment Management and Fish Passage at Hydropower Dams in the Lower Mekong River Basin

    Wild, T. B.; Reed, P. M.; Loucks, D. P.

    2015-12-01

    The Mekong River basin in Southeast Asia is undergoing intensive and pervasive hydropower development to satisfy demand for increased energy and income to support its growing population of 60 million people. Just 20 years ago this river flowed freely. Today some 30 large dams exist in the basin, and over 100 more are being planned for construction. These dams will alter the river's natural water, sediment and nutrient flows, thereby impacting river morphology and ecosystems, and will fragment fish migration pathways. In doing so, they will degrade one of the world's most valuable and productive freshwater fish habitats. For those dams that have not yet been constructed, there still exist opportunities to modify their siting, design and operation (SDO) to potentially achieve a more balanced set of tradeoffs among hydropower production, sediment/nutrient passage and fish passage. We introduce examples of such alternative SDO opportunities for Sambor Dam in Cambodia, planned to be constructed on the main stem of the Mekong River. To evaluate the performance of such alternatives, we developed a Python-based simulation tool called PySedSim. PySedSim is a daily time step mass balance model that identifies the relative tradeoffs among hydropower production, and flow and sediment regime alteration, associated with reservoir sediment management techniques such as flushing, sluicing, bypassing, density current venting and dredging. To date, there has been a very limited acknowledgement or evaluation of the significant uncertainties that impact the evaluation of SDO alternatives. This research is formalizing a model diagnostic assessment of the key assumptions and parametric uncertainties that strongly influence PySedSim SDO evaluations. Using stochastic hydrology and sediment load data, our diagnostic assessment evaluates and compares several Sambor Dam alternatives using several performance measures related to energy production, sediment trapping and regime alteration, and

  7. Environmental evaluation Methodology as part, of the project multi-aspect evaluation of the portfolio of ISAGEN options

    Ayala R, Ana Victoria

    2001-01-01

    ISAGEN designed and applied a multi-aspect methodology to classify and compare projects of the company's electricity generation options portfolio. It was developed from a holistic vision, integrating multidisciplinary information from the economic, environmental and technical aspects. This helped to classify the alternatives based on the sum of the values obtained for the different considered aspects. This document presents, in general form, the procedure adopted for the index formulation and selection of factors including the variables corresponding to the sub-aspects (or environmental dimensions) physical, biotic and social. The investigation's work, selection and classification of the variables were developed by an interdisciplinary group of experimented professionals in the environmental evaluation of projects. The integration of the three sub-aspects (physical, biotic and social) resulted in a hierarchy of projects based on environmental considerations, which were finally articulated with the respective values obtained from the technical and economical aspects. In general, the results obtained in each sub-aspect agreed with the hierarchy of projects based on an expert concept previous to the method application. In synthesis, it was observed that this technique is of great utility to make comparisons and general classifications because it allows to take advantage of information with different characteristics and include assumptions or artificial modifiable methodological items that reflect the structure of the deciding agents preferences at any given time

  8. Modeling of NOx Destruction Options for INEEL Sodium-Bearing Waste Vitrification

    Wood, Richard Arthur

    2001-09-01

    Off-gas NOx concentrations in the range of 1-5 mol% are expected as a result of the proposed vitrification of sodium-bearing waste at the Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory. An existing kinetic model for staged combustion (originally developed for NOx abatement from the calcination process) was updated for application to vitrification offgas. In addition, two new kinetic models were developed to assess the feasibility of using selective non-catalytic reduction (SNCR) or high-temperature alone for NOx abatement. Each of the models was developed using the Chemkin code. Results indicate that SNCR is a viable option, reducing NOx levels to below 1000 ppmv. In addition, SNCR may be capable of simultaneously reducing CO emissions to below 100 ppmv. Results for using high-temperature alone were not as promising, indicating that a minimum NOx concentration of 3950 ppmv is achievable at 3344°F.

  9. Implementation and assessment of improved models and options in TRAC-BF1

    Analytis, G.Th.

    1996-07-01

    A summary of modifications and options introduced in TRAC-BF1 is presented and it is shown that the predicting capabilities of the modified version of the core are greatly improved. These changes include the introduction of a different heat transfer package during reflooding, the implementation of a simple single-phase limit procedure for forcing the two phases to acquire the same velocity if one phase disappears, a close assessment of the annular flow interfacial shear correlation, implementation of a simple radiation model which seems to alleviate some numerical-oscillations problems induced by the existing highly complex model. Furthermore, different options were introduced and tested like upwinding some terms of the momentum equations (which seems to solve a number of problems reported in the past), the second upwind scheme for the convective terms of the phasic momentum equations and the implementation and assessment of a completely different annular flow interfacial shear correlation. The modified TRAC-BF1 is assessed against some bottom-flooding separate-effect experiments, a 'benchmark' top flooding simulation as well as against the TLTA test Nr. 6423. In the process of this task, the different options are assessed and discussed and is shown that the predictions of the modified code are physically sound and close to the measurements, while almost all the predicted variables are free of unphysical spurious oscillations. The modifications introduced solve a number of problems associated with the frozen version of the code and result in a version which can be confidently used for LB-LOCA analyses. (author) 19 figs., 16 refs

  10. A decision model for E and P petroleum projects using real options and preference theory

    Lima, Gabriel A.C. [Universidade Estadual de Campinas, SP (Brazil). Inst. de Geociencias. Lab. de Analise Geoconomica (LAGE); Suslick, Saul B. [Universidade Estadual de Campinas, SP (Brazil). Inst. de Geociencias. Centro de Estudo do Petroleo; Nepomuceno Filho, Francisco [PETROBRAS, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

    2004-07-01

    The results from Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) are limited as a tool for decision-making in the petroleum industry because they do not properly take into account three important features of the modern investments: uncertainty, irreversibility, timing and corporation's risk-aversion. Recent developments in real options and preference theories have allowed decision-makers to employ these two approaches separately in the process of valuation and decision-making of risky projects. This paper presents a model for valuation and decision-making integrating discounted cash flow, real options and reference theory. This model seems to be suitable to answer to the following questions: what is the current value of an oil project? what is the optimal working interest in this project venture?; what is criteria to select projects considering investment irreversibility, uncertainty and timing to implement decisions? This model is applied to valuation and decision-making of a project to produce oil from a deep-water reservoir and its results are compared to those of the traditional approach. NPV model suggest that, as the project value is above its investment cost, the corporation should invest immediately and take 100% working interest in the project. Contrarily, the integrated model suggest the corporation should invest as long as project current value is as large as 1.85 times investment cost and should take only 44.38% working interest, whereas partners fund and acquire the remaining 55,62% of the project. In general, results indicate that NPV tend to pay more attention on return and does not account properly for risk. Then, as the uncertainty or volatile of strategic variables increases, the two models give more divergent results. (author)

  11. Robust Trajectory Option Set planning in CTOP based on Bayesian game model

    Li, Lichun; Clarke, John-Paul; Feron, Eric; Shamma, Jeff S.

    2017-01-01

    The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) rations capacity to reduce en route delay, especially those caused by bad weather. This is accomplished via Collaborative Trajectory Options Program (CTOP) which has been recently developed to provide a mechanism for flight operators to communicate their route preferences for each flight via a Trajectory Option Set (TOS), as well as a mechanism for the FAA to assign the best possible route within the set of trajectories in the TOS for a given flight, i.e. the route with the lowest adjusted cost after consideration of system constraints and the requirements of all flights. The routes assigned to an airline depend not only on the TOS's for its own flights but also on the TOS's of all other flights in the CTOP, which are unknown. This paper aims to provide a detailed algorithm for the airline to design its TOS plan which is robust to the uncertainties of its competitors' TOS's. To this purpose, we model the CTOP problem as a Bayesian game, and use Linear Program (LP) to compute the security strategy in the Bayesian game model. This security strategy guarantees the airline an upper bound on the sum of the assigned times. The numerical results demonstrate the robustness of the strategy, which is not achieved by any other tested strategy.

  12. Robust Trajectory Option Set planning in CTOP based on Bayesian game model

    Li, Lichun

    2017-07-10

    The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) rations capacity to reduce en route delay, especially those caused by bad weather. This is accomplished via Collaborative Trajectory Options Program (CTOP) which has been recently developed to provide a mechanism for flight operators to communicate their route preferences for each flight via a Trajectory Option Set (TOS), as well as a mechanism for the FAA to assign the best possible route within the set of trajectories in the TOS for a given flight, i.e. the route with the lowest adjusted cost after consideration of system constraints and the requirements of all flights. The routes assigned to an airline depend not only on the TOS\\'s for its own flights but also on the TOS\\'s of all other flights in the CTOP, which are unknown. This paper aims to provide a detailed algorithm for the airline to design its TOS plan which is robust to the uncertainties of its competitors\\' TOS\\'s. To this purpose, we model the CTOP problem as a Bayesian game, and use Linear Program (LP) to compute the security strategy in the Bayesian game model. This security strategy guarantees the airline an upper bound on the sum of the assigned times. The numerical results demonstrate the robustness of the strategy, which is not achieved by any other tested strategy.

  13. A DG approach to the numerical solution of the Stein-Stein stochastic volatility option pricing model

    Hozman, J.; Tichý, T.

    2017-12-01

    Stochastic volatility models enable to capture the real world features of the options better than the classical Black-Scholes treatment. Here we focus on pricing of European-style options under the Stein-Stein stochastic volatility model when the option value depends on the time, on the price of the underlying asset and on the volatility as a function of a mean reverting Orstein-Uhlenbeck process. A standard mathematical approach to this model leads to the non-stationary second-order degenerate partial differential equation of two spatial variables completed by the system of boundary and terminal conditions. In order to improve the numerical valuation process for a such pricing equation, we propose a numerical technique based on the discontinuous Galerkin method and the Crank-Nicolson scheme. Finally, reference numerical experiments on real market data illustrate comprehensive empirical findings on options with stochastic volatility.

  14. A model to enable indirect manufacturing options transactions between organisations: An application to the ceramic industry

    Rodriguez-Rodriguez, R.; Gomez-Gasquet, P.; Oltra-Badenes, R. F.

    2014-01-01

    In the current competitive contexts, it is widely accepted and proved that inter-enterprise collaboration lead in many occasions to better results. The Spanish ceramic industry must improve, dropping its manufacturing costs in order to be able to compete with low cost products coming from Asia. In this sense, this work presents the main results obtained from applying an innovative model, which facilitates the transfer of manufacturing options between two ceramic enterprises that share a common supplier in the scenario where one of them needs more manufacturing capacity than the one booked according to its demand forecast and the another need less. Then, some decisional mechanisms are applied, which output the values for certain parameters in order to augment the benefit of all the three participants. With the application of this model better organisational results both economic and of service level are achieved. (Author)

  15. An evaluation of greenhouse gas mitigation options for coal-fired power plants in the US Great Lakes States

    Froese, Robert E.; Shonnard, David R.; Miller, Chris A.; Koers, Ken P.; Johnson, Dana M.

    2010-01-01

    We assessed options for mitigating greenhouse gas emissions from electricity generation in the US Great Lakes States, a region heavily dependent on coal-fired power plants. A proposed 600 MW power plant in northern Lower Michigan, USA provided context for our evaluation. Options to offset fossil CO 2 emissions by 20% included biomass fuel substitution from (1) forest residuals, (2) short-rotation woody crops, or (3) switchgrass; (4) biologic sequestration in forest plantations; and (5) geologic sequestration using CO 2 capture. Review of timber product output data, land cover data, and expected energy crop productivity on idle agriculture land within 120 km of the plant revealed that biomass from forestry residuals has the potential to offset 6% and from energy crops 27% of the annual fossil fuel requirement. Furthermore, annual forest harvest in the region is only 26% of growth and the surplus represents a large opportunity for forest products and bioenergy applications. We used Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) to compare mitigation options, using fossil energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions per unit electricity generation as criteria. LCA results revealed that co-firing with forestry residuals is the most attractive option and geologic sequestration is the least attractive option, based on the two criteria. Biologic sequestration is intermediate but likely infeasible because of very large land area requirements. Our study revealed that biomass feedstock potentials from land and forest resources are not limiting mitigation activities, but the most practical approach is likely a combination of options that optimize additional social, environmental and economic criteria.

  16. A conceptual framework for evaluating variable speed generator options for wind energy applications

    Reddoch, T. W.; Lipo, T. A.; Hinrichsen, E. N.; Hudson, T. L.; Thomas, R. J.

    1995-01-01

    Interest in variable speed generating technology has accelerated as greater emphasis on overall efficiency and superior dynamic and control properties in wind-electric generating systems are sought. This paper reviews variable speed technology options providing advantages and disadvantages of each. Furthermore, the dynamic properties of variable speed systems are contrasted with synchronous operation. Finally, control properties of variable speed systems are examined.

  17. Disposal options for radioactive residues. Development of interdisciplinary evaluation principles in ENTRIA; Entsorgungsoptionen fuer hoch radioaktive Abfaelle. Die Schaffung interdisziplinaerer Bewertungsgrundlagen in ENTRIA

    Walther, C. [Hannover Univ. (Germany). Inst. fuer Radiooekologie und Strahlenschutz; Chaudry, S.; Plischke, E.; Roehlig, K.J. [TU Clausthal, Clausthal-Zellerfeld (Germany). Inst. fuer Endlagerforschung; Hocke, P. [Karlsruher Institut fuer Technologie, Karlsruhe (Germany). Inst. fuer Technikfolgenabschaetzung und Systemanalyse; Eckhardt, A. [risicare GmbH, Zollikerberg (Switzerland); Ott, K. [Kiel Univ. (Germany). Philosophisches Seminar

    2016-07-01

    ENTRIA, short for ''Disposal Options for Radioactive Residues: Interdisciplinary Analyses and Development of Evaluation Principles'', is a joint project of twelve institutes or departments of German universities and research institutions as well as a partner from Switzerland. The fundamentally new approach here is the plurality of represented disciplines. ENTRIA analyzes radioactive waste management subjects from the viewpoint of natural sciences, engineering, arts, law and social science. ENTRIA works independently from politics, operators und interest groups. ENTRIA performs purely scientific research analyzing the three most important radioactive waste management option:''Final disposal in deep geological formations without any arrangements for retrieval (maintenance-free deep geological disposal)'', ''disposal in deep geological formations with arrangements for monitoring and retrieval'' and ''surface storage''. Based on these options ENTRIA developed generic ''reference models'' and generic host-rockdependent container models (ENCON). All these models are of generic character, but are elaborated to an extent, e.g. with respect to reversibility time scales, as is necessary for a comparative differentiated evaluation. Long-term surface storage is considered and evaluated because of the increasingly apparent need to address interim storage not only as (temporary) alternative, but also as a necessary part of the overall process. Besides disciplinary work packages performed in ENTRIA several tasks combine the expertise and perspective of disciplines which could classically be considered ''far apart''. A key task is the creation of interdisciplinary evaluation principles. This article provides insight into interdisciplinary working within ENTERIA and describes the present status of this work from the perspective of the authors. However, this is not

  18. Numerically pricing American options under the generalized mixed fractional Brownian motion model

    Chen, Wenting; Yan, Bowen; Lian, Guanghua; Zhang, Ying

    2016-06-01

    In this paper, we introduce a robust numerical method, based on the upwind scheme, for the pricing of American puts under the generalized mixed fractional Brownian motion (GMFBM) model. By using portfolio analysis and applying the Wick-Itô formula, a partial differential equation (PDE) governing the prices of vanilla options under the GMFBM is successfully derived for the first time. Based on this, we formulate the pricing of American puts under the current model as a linear complementarity problem (LCP). Unlike the classical Black-Scholes (B-S) model or the generalized B-S model discussed in Cen and Le (2011), the newly obtained LCP under the GMFBM model is difficult to be solved accurately because of the numerical instability which results from the degeneration of the governing PDE as time approaches zero. To overcome this difficulty, a numerical approach based on the upwind scheme is adopted. It is shown that the coefficient matrix of the current method is an M-matrix, which ensures its stability in the maximum-norm sense. Remarkably, we have managed to provide a sharp theoretic error estimate for the current method, which is further verified numerically. The results of various numerical experiments also suggest that this new approach is quite accurate, and can be easily extended to price other types of financial derivatives with an American-style exercise feature under the GMFBM model.

  19. Application of Binomial Model and Market Asset Declaimer Methodology for Valuation of Abandon and Expand Options. The Case Study

    Paweł Mielcarz

    2007-06-01

    Full Text Available The article presents a case study of valuation of real options included in a investment project. The main goal of the article is to present the calculation and methodological issues of application the methodology for real option valuation. In order to do it there are used the binomial model and Market Asset Declaimer methodology. The project presented in the article concerns the introduction of radio station to a new market. It includes two valuable real options: to abandon the project and to expand.

  20. Business models and financing options for a rapid scale-up of rooftop solar power systems in Thailand

    Tongsopit, Sopitsuda; Moungchareon, Sunee; Aksornkij, Apinya; Potisat, Tanai

    2016-01-01

    Diverse solar PV business models and financing options exist in the international landscape, helping expand and accelerate the adoption of rooftop solar PV systems. The conditions for their emergence are context specific, depending on the policies, regulations, incentives, and market conditions of each country. After a review of the international landscape, this paper compiles and analyzes business models and financing options for rooftop solar PV investment in Thailand that have emerged during the period between 2013 and 2015. Despite policy discontinuity for the support of rooftop solar systems, diverse business models and financing options are driving market expansion and expanding solar access to more Thai consumers. Drawing on our policy and regulatory analyses and in-depth interviews with business representatives, we identify four types of business models and one financing option. The business models include Roof Rental, Solar PPA, Solar Leasing, and Community Solar, and the financing option is the solar loan. We analyze the drivers for their emergence, barriers to their success, and the risks from the business owners' and consumers' viewpoints. Our policy recommendation is focused on crafting a net-metering regulation with evidence-based studies on the potential costs and benefits to different stakeholders. - Highlights: •Advances understanding on PV business models in urban developing countries' context. •Reviews emerging rooftop solar business models in Thailand. •Thailand has a dynamic solar market despite policy uncertainties.

  1. A decision methodology for the evaluation of mixed low-level radioactive waste management options for DOE sites

    Bassi, J. [Dept. of Energy, Washington, DC (United States); Abashian, M.S.; Chakraborti, S.; Devarakonda, M.; Djordjevic, S.M. [IT Corp., Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    1993-03-01

    Currently, many DOE sites are developing site-specific solutions to manage their mixed low-level wastes. These site-specific MLLW programs often result in duplication of efforts between the different sites, and consequently, inefficient use of DOE system resources. A nationally integrated program for MLLW eliminates unnecessary duplication of effort, but requires a comprehensive analysis of waste management options to ensure that all site issues are addressed. A methodology for comprehensive analysis of the complete DOE MLLW system is being developed by DOE-HQ to establish an integrated and standardized solution for managing MLLW. To be effective, the comprehensive systems analysis must consider all aspects of MLLW management from cradle-to-grave (i.e. from MLLW generation to disposal). The results of the analysis will include recommendations for alternative management options for the complete DOE MLLW system based on various components such as effectiveness, cost, health and safety risks, and the probability of regulatory acceptance for an option. Because of the diverse nature of these various components and the associated difficulties in comparing between them, a decision methodology is being developed that will integrate the above components into a single evaluation scheme for performing relative comparisons between different MLLW management options. The remainder of this paper provides an overview of the roles and responsibilities of the various participants of the DOE MLLW Program, and discusses in detail the components involved in the development of the decision methodology for a comprehensive systems analysis.

  2. Modelled female sale options demonstrate improved profitability in northern beef herds.

    Niethe, G E; Holmes, W E

    2008-12-01

    To examine the impact of improving the average value of cows sold, the risk of decreasing the number weaned, and total sales on the profitability of northern Australian cattle breeding properties. Gather, model and interpret breeder herd performances and production parameters on properties from six beef-producing regions in northern Australia. Production parameters, prices, costs and herd structure were entered into a herd simulation model for six northern Australian breeding properties that spay females to enhance their marketing options. After the data were validated by management, alternative management strategies were modelled using current market prices and most likely herd outcomes. The model predicted a close relationship between the average sale value of cows, the total herd sales and the gross margin/adult equivalent. Keeping breeders out of the herd to fatten generally improves their sale value, and this can be cost-effective, despite the lower number of progeny produced and the subsequent reduction in total herd sales. Furthermore, if the price of culled cows exceeds the price of culled heifers, provided there are sufficient replacement pregnant heifers available to maintain the breeder herd nucleus, substantial gains in profitability can be obtained by decreasing the age at which cows are culled from the herd. Generalised recommendations on improving reproductive performance are not necessarily the most cost-effective strategy to improve breeder herd profitability. Judicious use of simulation models is essential to help develop the best turnoff strategies for females and to improve station profitability.

  3. Evaluation of fuel cycle options for plutonium utilization: 1977 study. Final report

    Pardue, W.M.; Madia, W.J.; Pobereskin, M.; Tripplett, M.B.; Waddell, J.D.

    1977-05-01

    This is the third in a series of three reports on the analysis of plutonium recycle. Analyses are based upon an October, 1976, middle case ERDA forecast of nuclear growth which predicts 510 GWe of nuclear capacity in the year 2000. Four fuel cycle options were reviewed, ranging from no LWR recycle of uranium of plutonium to recycle options both with and without breeder reactors. A special effort was devoted to the review of various estimates of the costs of reprocessing nuclear fuels, with a resulting value of $190/kg of heavy metal (deflated 1975 dollars). The associated range is estimated to $125/kg to $250/kg. Sensitivity analysis of reprocessing costs, uranium consumption, average generation costs, and total discounted costs of electricity indicate that the long-term economic advantages of plutonium recycle are quite conclusive. Nuclear scenarios which project low growth rates and which delay the start of recycle and introduction of a breeder reactor postpone the apparent economic advantages

  4. Evaluation and suggestions for optional electrical engineering classes curriculum changes in elementary school

    Štulac, Anja

    2014-01-01

    The aim of the thesis is to make a survey about teaching of elective subject in the 8th or 9th grade named electrical engineering. The findings could be helpful to teachers of electrical engineering, engineering and technology, physics, as well as for amateur electrical engineering enthusiasts. It is also aimed at those who seek to make changes in the optional electrical engineering course curriculum which represents a plan of work for teachers of this course. It is therefore an important fac...

  5. Agricultural land management options following large-scale environmental contamination - evaluation for Fukushima affected agricultural land

    Vandenhove, Hildegarde

    2013-01-01

    The accident at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant has raised questions about the accumulation of radionuclides in soils, the transfer in the food chain and the possibility of continued restricted future land use. This paper summarizes what is generally understood about the application of agricultural countermeasures as a land management option to reduce the radionuclides transfer in the food chain and to facilitate the return of potentially affected soils to agricultural practices in areas impacted by a nuclear accident. (authors)

  6. Evaluating authentication options for mobile health applications in younger and older adults

    Khan, Hassan; Hengartner, Urs; Ong, Stephanie; Logan, Alexander G.; Vogel, Daniel; Gebotys, Robert; Yang, Jilan

    2018-01-01

    Objective Apps promoting patient self-management may improve health outcomes. However, methods to secure stored information on mobile devices may adversely affect usability. We tested the reliability and usability of common user authentication techniques in younger and older adults. Methodology Usability testing was conducted in two age groups, 18 to 30 years and 50 years and older. After completing a demographic questionnaire, each participant tested four authentication options in random order: four-digit personal identification number (PIN), graphical password (GRAPHICAL), Android pattern-lock (PATTERN), and a swipe-style Android fingerprint scanner (FINGERPRINT). Participants rated each option using the Systems Usability Scale (SUS). Results A total of 59 older and 43 younger participants completed the study. Overall, PATTERN was the fastest option (3.44s), and PIN had the fewest errors per attempt (0.02). Participants were able to login using PIN, PATTERN, and GRAPHICAL at least 98% of the time. FINGERPRINT was the slowest (26.97s), had an average of 1.46 errors per attempt, and had a successful login rate of 85%. Overall, PIN and PATTERN had higher SUS scores than FINGERPRINT and GRAPHICAL. Compared to younger participants, older participants were also less likely to find PATTERN to be tiring, annoying or time consuming and less likely to consider PIN to be time consuming. Younger participants were more likely to rate GRAPHICAL as annoying, time consuming and tiring than older participants. Conclusions On mobile devices, PIN and pattern-lock outperformed graphical passwords and swipe-style fingerprints. All participants took longer to authenticate using the swipe-style fingerprint compared to other options. Older participants also took two to three seconds longer to authenticate using the PIN, pattern and graphical passwords though this did not appear to affect perceived usability. PMID:29300736

  7. Agricultural land management options following large-scale environmental contamination - evaluation for Fukushima affected agricultural land

    Vandenhove, Hildegarde [Biosphere Impact Studies, Belgian Nuclear Research Center SCK-CEN, Mol (Belgium)

    2013-07-01

    The accident at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant has raised questions about the accumulation of radionuclides in soils, the transfer in the food chain and the possibility of continued restricted future land use. This paper summarizes what is generally understood about the application of agricultural countermeasures as a land management option to reduce the radionuclides transfer in the food chain and to facilitate the return of potentially affected soils to agricultural practices in areas impacted by a nuclear accident. (authors)

  8. Evaluating authentication options for mobile health applications in younger and older adults.

    Kelly Grindrod

    Full Text Available Apps promoting patient self-management may improve health outcomes. However, methods to secure stored information on mobile devices may adversely affect usability. We tested the reliability and usability of common user authentication techniques in younger and older adults.Usability testing was conducted in two age groups, 18 to 30 years and 50 years and older. After completing a demographic questionnaire, each participant tested four authentication options in random order: four-digit personal identification number (PIN, graphical password (GRAPHICAL, Android pattern-lock (PATTERN, and a swipe-style Android fingerprint scanner (FINGERPRINT. Participants rated each option using the Systems Usability Scale (SUS.A total of 59 older and 43 younger participants completed the study. Overall, PATTERN was the fastest option (3.44s, and PIN had the fewest errors per attempt (0.02. Participants were able to login using PIN, PATTERN, and GRAPHICAL at least 98% of the time. FINGERPRINT was the slowest (26.97s, had an average of 1.46 errors per attempt, and had a successful login rate of 85%. Overall, PIN and PATTERN had higher SUS scores than FINGERPRINT and GRAPHICAL. Compared to younger participants, older participants were also less likely to find PATTERN to be tiring, annoying or time consuming and less likely to consider PIN to be time consuming. Younger participants were more likely to rate GRAPHICAL as annoying, time consuming and tiring than older participants.On mobile devices, PIN and pattern-lock outperformed graphical passwords and swipe-style fingerprints. All participants took longer to authenticate using the swipe-style fingerprint compared to other options. Older participants also took two to three seconds longer to authenticate using the PIN, pattern and graphical passwords though this did not appear to affect perceived usability.

  9. Evaluating authentication options for mobile health applications in younger and older adults.

    Grindrod, Kelly; Khan, Hassan; Hengartner, Urs; Ong, Stephanie; Logan, Alexander G; Vogel, Daniel; Gebotys, Robert; Yang, Jilan

    2018-01-01

    Apps promoting patient self-management may improve health outcomes. However, methods to secure stored information on mobile devices may adversely affect usability. We tested the reliability and usability of common user authentication techniques in younger and older adults. Usability testing was conducted in two age groups, 18 to 30 years and 50 years and older. After completing a demographic questionnaire, each participant tested four authentication options in random order: four-digit personal identification number (PIN), graphical password (GRAPHICAL), Android pattern-lock (PATTERN), and a swipe-style Android fingerprint scanner (FINGERPRINT). Participants rated each option using the Systems Usability Scale (SUS). A total of 59 older and 43 younger participants completed the study. Overall, PATTERN was the fastest option (3.44s), and PIN had the fewest errors per attempt (0.02). Participants were able to login using PIN, PATTERN, and GRAPHICAL at least 98% of the time. FINGERPRINT was the slowest (26.97s), had an average of 1.46 errors per attempt, and had a successful login rate of 85%. Overall, PIN and PATTERN had higher SUS scores than FINGERPRINT and GRAPHICAL. Compared to younger participants, older participants were also less likely to find PATTERN to be tiring, annoying or time consuming and less likely to consider PIN to be time consuming. Younger participants were more likely to rate GRAPHICAL as annoying, time consuming and tiring than older participants. On mobile devices, PIN and pattern-lock outperformed graphical passwords and swipe-style fingerprints. All participants took longer to authenticate using the swipe-style fingerprint compared to other options. Older participants also took two to three seconds longer to authenticate using the PIN, pattern and graphical passwords though this did not appear to affect perceived usability.

  10. Analysing pseudoephedrine/methamphetamine policy options in Australia using multi-criteria decision modelling.

    Manning, Matthew; Wong, Gabriel T W; Ransley, Janet; Smith, Christine

    2016-06-01

    In this paper we capture and synthesize the unique knowledge of experts so that choices regarding policy measures to address methamphetamine consumption and dependency in Australia can be strengthened. We examine perceptions of the: (1) influence of underlying factors that impact on the methamphetamine problem; (2) importance of various models of intervention that have the potential to affect the success of policies; and (3) efficacy of alternative pseudoephedrine policy options. We adopt a multi-criteria decision model to unpack factors that affect decisions made by experts and examine potential variations on weight/preference among groups. Seventy experts from five groups (i.e. academia (18.6%), government and policy (27.1%), health (18.6%), pharmaceutical (17.1%) and police (18.6%)) in Australia participated in the survey. Social characteristics are considered the most important underlying factor, prevention the most effective strategy and Project STOP the most preferred policy option with respect to reducing methamphetamine consumption and dependency in Australia. One-way repeated ANOVAs indicate a statistically significant difference with regards to the influence of underlying factors (F(2.3, 144.5)=11.256, pmethamphetamine consumption and dependency. Most experts support the use of preventative mechanisms to inhibit drug initiation and delayed drug uptake. Compared to other policies, Project STOP (which aims to disrupt the initial diversion of pseudoephedrine) appears to be a more preferable preventative mechanism to control the production and subsequent sale and use of methamphetamine. This regulatory civil law lever engages third parties in controlling drug-related crime. The literature supports third-party partnerships as it engages experts who have knowledge and expertise with respect to prevention and harm minimization. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  11. Modelling Pasture-based Automatic Milking System Herds: Grazeable Forage Options

    M. R. Islam

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available One of the challenges to increase milk production in a large pasture-based herd with an automatic milking system (AMS is to grow forages within a 1-km radius, as increases in walking distance increases milking interval and reduces yield. The main objective of this study was to explore sustainable forage option technologies that can supply high amount of grazeable forages for AMS herds using the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM model. Three different basic simulation scenarios (with irrigation were carried out using forage crops (namely maize, soybean and sorghum for the spring-summer period. Subsequent crops in the three scenarios were forage rape over-sown with ryegrass. Each individual simulation was run using actual climatic records for the period from 1900 to 2010. Simulated highest forage yields in maize, soybean and sorghum- (each followed by forage rape-ryegrass based rotations were 28.2, 22.9, and 19.3 t dry matter/ha, respectively. The simulations suggested that the irrigation requirement could increase by up to 18%, 16%, and 17% respectively in those rotations in El-Niño years compared to neutral years. On the other hand, irrigation requirement could increase by up to 25%, 23%, and 32% in maize, soybean and sorghum based rotations in El-Nino years compared to La-Nina years. However, irrigation requirement could decrease by up to 8%, 7%, and 13% in maize, soybean and sorghum based rotations in La-Nina years compared to neutral years. The major implication of this study is that APSIM models have potentials in devising preferred forage options to maximise grazeable forage yield which may create the opportunity to grow more forage in small areas around the AMS which in turn will minimise walking distance and milking interval and thus increase milk production. Our analyses also suggest that simulation analysis may provide decision support during climatic uncertainty.

  12. Modelling Pasture-based Automatic Milking System Herds: Grazeable Forage Options.

    Islam, M R; Garcia, S C; Clark, C E F; Kerrisk, K L

    2015-05-01

    One of the challenges to increase milk production in a large pasture-based herd with an automatic milking system (AMS) is to grow forages within a 1-km radius, as increases in walking distance increases milking interval and reduces yield. The main objective of this study was to explore sustainable forage option technologies that can supply high amount of grazeable forages for AMS herds using the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) model. Three different basic simulation scenarios (with irrigation) were carried out using forage crops (namely maize, soybean and sorghum) for the spring-summer period. Subsequent crops in the three scenarios were forage rape over-sown with ryegrass. Each individual simulation was run using actual climatic records for the period from 1900 to 2010. Simulated highest forage yields in maize, soybean and sorghum- (each followed by forage rape-ryegrass) based rotations were 28.2, 22.9, and 19.3 t dry matter/ha, respectively. The simulations suggested that the irrigation requirement could increase by up to 18%, 16%, and 17% respectively in those rotations in El-Niño years compared to neutral years. On the other hand, irrigation requirement could increase by up to 25%, 23%, and 32% in maize, soybean and sorghum based rotations in El-Nino years compared to La-Nina years. However, irrigation requirement could decrease by up to 8%, 7%, and 13% in maize, soybean and sorghum based rotations in La-Nina years compared to neutral years. The major implication of this study is that APSIM models have potentials in devising preferred forage options to maximise grazeable forage yield which may create the opportunity to grow more forage in small areas around the AMS which in turn will minimise walking distance and milking interval and thus increase milk production. Our analyses also suggest that simulation analysis may provide decision support during climatic uncertainty.

  13. Nuclear models relevant to evaluation

    Arthur, E.D.; Chadwick, M.B.; Hale, G.M.; Young, P.G.

    1991-01-01

    The widespread use of nuclear models continues in the creation of data evaluations. The reasons include extension of data evaluations to higher energies, creation of data libraries for isotopic components of natural materials, and production of evaluations for radiative target species. In these cases, experimental data are often sparse or nonexistent. As this trend continues, the nuclear models employed in evaluation work move towards more microscopically-based theoretical methods, prompted in part by the availability of increasingly powerful computational resources. Advances in nuclear models applicable to evaluation will be reviewed. These include advances in optical model theory, microscopic and phenomenological state and level density theory, unified models that consistently describe both equilibrium and nonequilibrium reaction mechanism, and improved methodologies for calculation of prompt radiation from fission. 84 refs., 8 figs

  14. Evaluation of food waste disposal options by LCC analysis from the perspective of global warming: Jungnang case, South Korea

    Kim, Mi-Hyung; Song, Yul-Eum; Song, Han-Byul; Kim, Jung-Wk; Hwang, Sun-Jin

    2011-01-01

    Highlights: → Various food waste disposal options were evaluated from the perspective of global warming. → Costs of the options were compared by the methodology of life cycle assessment and life cycle cost analysis. → Carbon price and valuable by-products were used for analyzing environmental credits. → The benefit-cost ratio of wet feeding scenario was the highest. - Abstract: The costs associated with eight food waste disposal options, dry feeding, wet feeding, composting, anaerobic digestion, co-digestion with sewage sludge, food waste disposer, incineration, and landfilling, were evaluated in the perspective of global warming and energy and/or resource recovery. An expanded system boundary was employed to compare by-products. Life cycle cost was analyzed through the entire disposal process, which included discharge, separate collection, transportation, treatment, and final disposal stages, all of which were included in the system boundary. Costs and benefits were estimated by an avoided impact. Environmental benefits of each system per 1 tonne of food waste management were estimated using carbon prices resulting from CO 2 reduction by avoided impact, as well as the prices of by-products such as animal feed, compost, and electricity. We found that the cost of landfilling was the lowest, followed by co-digestion. The benefits of wet feeding systems were the highest and landfilling the lowest.

  15. Evaluation of electromagnetic loads on various design options of the ITER diagnostic upper port plug during plasma disruptions

    Pak, Sunil; Ku, Duck Young; Oh, Dong-Keun; Jhang, Hogun; Kim, Duck-Hoi; Cheon, Mun-Seong; Seon, Chang Rae; Lee, Hyeon Gon; Pitcher, Spencer

    2011-01-01

    Electromagnetic (EM) loads due to eddy current and halo current during plasma disruptions are evaluated for the ITER diagnostic upper port plug. To reduce strong EM loads acting on the port plug fixed to the vacuum vessel like a cantilever beam, three design options have been considered: removal of the diagnostic first wall, slitting of the diagnostic shield module and recess of the port plug. The main focus of the present study is to examine the efficacy of these options in terms of EM loads on the upper port plug. It is found that making slits is more effective than removing the first wall. It is also shown that the upper port plug needs to be recessed to reduce the EM load induced by halo current.

  16. Public health economic evaluation of different European Union-level policy options aimed at reducing population dietary trans fat intake.

    Martin-Saborido, Carlos; Mouratidou, Theodora; Livaniou, Anastasia; Caldeira, Sandra; Wollgast, Jan

    2016-11-01

    The adverse relation between dietary trans fatty acid (TFA) intake and coronary artery disease risk is well established. Many countries in the European Union (EU) and worldwide have implemented different policies to reduce the TFA intake of their populations. The aim of this study was to assess the added value of EU-level action by estimating the cost-effectiveness of 3 possible EU-level policy measures to reduce population dietary TFA intake. This was calculated against a reference situation of not implementing any EU-level policy (i.e., by assuming only national or self-regulatory measures). We developed a mathematical model to compare different policy options at the EU level: 1) to do nothing beyond the current state (reference situation), 2) to impose mandatory TFA labeling of prepackaged foods, 3) to seek voluntary agreements toward further reducing industrially produced TFA (iTFA) content in foods, and 4) to impose a legislative limit for iTFA content in foods. The model indicated that to impose an EU-level legal limit or to make voluntary agreements may, over the course of a lifetime (85 y), avoid the loss of 3.73 and 2.19 million disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), respectively, and save >51 and 23 billion euros when compared with the reference situation. Implementing mandatory TFA labeling can also avoid the loss of 0.98 million DALYs, but this option incurs more costs than it saves compared with the reference option. The model indicates that there is added value of an EU-level action, either via a legal limit or through voluntary agreements, with the legal limit option producing the highest additional health benefits. Introducing mandatory TFA labeling for the EU common market may provide some additional health benefits; however, this would likely not be a cost-effective strategy.

  17. Options Evaluation for Remediation of the Gunnar Site Using a Decision- Tree Approach

    Yankovich, Tamara L. [International Atomic Energy Agency, P.O. Box 100, 1400 Vienna (Austria); Hachkowski, Andrea [CH2M Hill Canada Limited, 1305 Kenaston Blvd, Winnipeg, Manitoba, R3P 2P2 (Canada); Klyashtorin, Alexey [Saskatchewan Research Council, 15 Innovation Blvd no.125, Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, S7N 2X8 (Canada)

    2014-07-01

    Current best practice in the nuclear industry involves proactive planning of activities from cradle-to-grave over the entire nuclear life cycle in accordance with national requirements and international guidance. This includes the development of detailed decommissioning plans (DDP) at an early stage to facilitate proactive, responsible decision-making as activities are being planned. It should be noted, however, that the current approach may not be applicable to historic nuclear legacy sites, such as abandoned uranium mines and mills, which had operated in the past under less stringent regulatory regimes. In such cases, records documenting past activities are often not available and monitoring data may not have been collected, thereby limiting knowledge of impacts related to past activities. This can lead to challenges in gaining regulatory and funding approvals related to the remediation of such sites, especially given the costs that can be associated with remediation and the uncertainties in characterizing the existing situation. The Gunnar Site, in northern Saskatchewan, is an example of an abandoned uranium mine/mill site, which was operated between the late 1950's to early 1960's under a different regulatory regime than today. Due to the lack of monitoring data and records for the site, and the corresponding uncertainties, a number of precedent-setting approaches have been developed and applied, as part of the environmental impact assessment (EIA) process. Specifically, unlike traditional environmental assessments for planned and operating facilities, it was not possible to identify a preferred and alternative remedial option. Instead, a step-wise decision-tree approach has been developed to identify all potentially feasible remedial options and to map out key decision points, during the licensing phase of the project (following approval of the environmental assessment), when final remedial options will be selected. The presentation will provide

  18. Analysis of the Exchange Rate and Pricing Foreign Currency Options on the Croatian Market: the NGARCH Model as an Alternative to the Black-Scholes Model

    Petra Posedel

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available The interest of professional investors in financial derivatives on the Croatian market is steadily increasing and trading is expected to start after the establishment of the legal framework. The quantification of the fair price of such financial instruments is therefore becoming increasingly important. Once the derivatives market is formed, the use of the Black-Scholes option pricing model is also expected. However, contrary to the assumptions of the Black-Scholes model, research in the field of option markets worldwide suggests that the volatility of the time-series returns is not constant over time. The present study analyzes the implications of volatility that changes over time for option pricing. The nonlinear-in-mean asymmetric GARCH model that reflects asymmetry in the distribution of returns and the correlation between returns and variance is recommended. For the purpose of illustration, we use the NGARCH model for the pricing of foreign currency options. Possible prices for such options having different strikes and maturities are then determined using Monte Carlo simulations. The improvement provided by the NGARCH model is that the option price is a function of the risk premium embedded in the underlying asset. This contrasts with the standard preference-free option pricing result that is obtained in the Black-Scholes model.

  19. Results of the evaluation of dematerialization options; Resultaten evaluatie dematerialisatie opties

    NONE

    2010-03-15

    In 2007 and 2008 VKO and SenterNovem commissioned a study of four options for dematerializing masonry bricks with respect to the consequences for the production and use in facades. The study of the production and energy consequences has been conducted by TCKI. The TCKI report has been incorporated in this report as an annex. [Dutch] In 2007 en 2009 zijn in opdracht van VKO en SenterNovem een viertal opties voor dematerialisaties van metselbaksteen onderzocht op hun gevolgen voor de productie en de toepassingen in de gevel. Het onderzoek naar de productie- en energieconsequenties is uitgevoerd door TCKI. Het TCKI rapport is als bijlage bij dit rapport gevoegd.

  20. Evaluation of MYBPC3 trans-Splicing and Gene Replacement as Therapeutic Options in Human iPSC-Derived Cardiomyocytes

    Maksymilian Prondzynski

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Gene therapy is a promising option for severe forms of genetic diseases. We previously provided evidence for the feasibility of trans-splicing, exon skipping, and gene replacement in a mouse model of hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM carrying a mutation in MYBPC3, encoding cardiac myosin-binding protein C (cMyBP-C. Here we used human induced pluripotent stem cell-derived cardiomyocytes (hiPSC-CMs from an HCM patient carrying a heterozygous c.1358-1359insC MYBPC3 mutation and from a healthy donor. HCM hiPSC-CMs exhibited ∼50% lower MYBPC3 mRNA and cMyBP-C protein levels than control, no truncated cMyBP-C, larger cell size, and altered gene expression, thus reproducing human HCM features. We evaluated RNA trans-splicing and gene replacement after transducing hiPSC-CMs with adeno-associated virus. trans-splicing with 5′ or 3′ pre-trans-splicing molecules represented ∼1% of total MYBPC3 transcripts in healthy hiPSC-CMs. In contrast, gene replacement with the full-length MYBPC3 cDNA resulted in ∼2.5-fold higher MYBPC3 mRNA levels in HCM and control hiPSC-CMs. This restored the cMyBP-C level to 81% of the control level, suppressed hypertrophy, and partially restored gene expression to control level in HCM cells. This study provides evidence for (1 the feasibility of trans-splicing, although with low efficiency, and (2 efficient gene replacement in hiPSC-CMs with a MYBPC3 mutation.

  1. Evaluation of advanced propulsion options for the next manned transportation system: Propulsion evolution study

    Spears, L. T.; Kramer, R. D.

    1990-01-01

    The objectives were to examine launch vehicle applications and propulsion requirements for potential future manned space transportation systems and to support planning toward the evolution of Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) and Space Transportation Main Engine (STME) engines beyond their current or initial launch vehicle applications. As a basis for examinations of potential future manned launch vehicle applications, we used three classes of manned space transportation concepts currently under study: Space Transportation System Evolution, Personal Launch System (PLS), and Advanced Manned Launch System (AMLS). Tasks included studies of launch vehicle applications and requirements for hydrogen-oxygen rocket engines; the development of suggestions for STME engine evolution beyond the mid-1990's; the development of suggestions for STME evolution beyond the Advanced Launch System (ALS) application; the study of booster propulsion options, including LOX-Hydrocarbon options; the analysis of the prospects and requirements for utilization of a single engine configuration over the full range of vehicle applications, including manned vehicles plus ALS and Shuttle C; and a brief review of on-going and planned LOX-Hydrogen propulsion technology activities.

  2. Nuclear fusion as new energy option in a global single-regional energy system model

    Eherer, C.; Baumann, M.; Dueweke, J.; Hamacher, T.

    2005-01-01

    Is there a window of opportunity for fusion on the electricity market under 'business as usual' conditions, and if not, how do the boundary conditions have to look like to open such a window? This question is addressed within a subtask of the Socio-Economic Research on Fusion (SERF) programme of the European Commission. The most advanced energy-modelling framework, the TIMES model generator developed by the Energy Technology System Analysis Project group of the IEA (ETSAP) has been used to implement a global single-regional partial equilibrium energy model. Within the current activities the potential role of fusion power in various future energy scenarios is studied. The final energy demand projections of the baseline of the investigations are based on IIASA-WEC Scenario B. Under the quite conservative baseline assumptions fusion only enters the model solution with 35 GW in 2100 and it can be observed that coal technologies dominate electricity production in 2100. Scenario variations show that the role of fusion power is strongly affected by the availability of GEN IV fission breeding technologies as energy option and by CO 2 emission caps. The former appear to be a major competitor of fusion power while the latter open a window of opportunity for fusion power on the electricity market. An interesting outcome is furthermore that the possible share of fusion electricity is more sensitive to the potential of primary resources like coal, gas and uranium, than to the share of solar and wind power in the system. This indicates that both kinds of technologies, renewables and fusion power, can coexist in future energy systems in case of CO 2 emission policies and/or resource scarcity scenarios. It is shown that Endogenous Technological Learning (ETL), a more consistent description of technological progress than mere time series, has an impact on the model results. (author)

  3. Numerical modelling to assess maintenance strategy management options for a small tidal inlet

    Shaeri, Saeed; Tomlinson, Rodger; Etemad-Shahidi, Amir; Strauss, Darrell

    2017-03-01

    Small tidal inlets are found to be more sensitive to anthropogenic alteration than their larger counterparts. Such alterations, although typically supported by technical design reports, sometimes require amendments or modification. One of the most suitable tools to conduct the necessary studies in this regard is numerical modelling, since the behaviour of the inlet system in response to proposed remedial actions, can easily be identified. In this paper, various alternative proposals are investigated to determine the most practical and viable option to mitigate the need for ongoing maintenance at a typical small, jettied tidal inlet. The main tool to investigate the alternatives is the hydro-sedimentological modelling of the inlet system, which was performed using the Delft3D software package. The proposed alternative entrance modifications were based upon structural alterations of the inlet system (such as a jetty extension or submerged weir) and non-structural scenarios (such as a change of the time of the dredging campaign or the deposition location of the dredged material). It was concluded that whilst a detailed study is inevitable in order to achieve a comprehensive design plan, based upon the results of this study the construction of a submerged weir at the entrance channel can satisfy the needs of most of the stakeholders, with justifiable costs over a longer period.

  4. Modeling options to manage type 1 wild poliovirus imported into Israel in 2013.

    Kalkowska, Dominika A; Duintjer Tebbens, Radboud J; Grotto, Itamar; Shulman, Lester M; Anis, Emilia; Wassilak, Steven G F; Pallansch, Mark A; Thompson, Kimberly M

    2015-06-01

    After 25 years without poliomyelitis cases caused by circulating wild poliovirus (WPV) in Israel, sewage sampling detected WPV type 1 (WPV1) in April 2013, despite high vaccination coverage with only inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV) since 2005. We used a differential equation-based model to simulate the dynamics of poliovirus transmission and population immunity in Israel due to past exposure to WPV and use of oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) in addition to IPV. We explored the influences of various immunization options to stop imported WPV1 circulation in Israel. We successfully modeled the potential for WPVs to circulate without detected cases in Israel. Maintaining a sequential IPV/OPV schedule instead of switching to an IPV-only schedule in 2005 would have kept population immunity high enough in Israel to prevent WPV1 circulation. The Israeli response to WPV1 detection prevented paralytic cases; a more rapid response might have interrupted transmission more quickly. IPV-based protection alone might not provide sufficient population immunity to prevent poliovirus transmission after an importation. As countries transition to IPV in immunization schedules, they may need to actively manage population immunity and consider continued use of OPV, to avoid the potential circulation of imported live polioviruses before globally coordinated cessation of OPV use. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  5. An entry and exit model on the energy-saving investment strategy with real options

    Lin, Tyrone T.; Huang, S.-L.

    2010-01-01

    This paper presents an improved decision model based on the real options approach presented by for the firms that have not yet established energy-saving equipment under the entry and exit strategies. Furthermore, the proposed model takes account of the inevitable equipment renewal and the occurrence of unexpected events under the Poisson jump process. The timing for terminating an investment when continuous operations of that business are unprofitable is also explored to realize the optimal timing of implementing the energy-saving strategy. The future discounted benefit B follows the geometric Brownian motion with the Poisson jump process and the replacement of investment equipment. A numerical analysis is followed by a sensitivity study of various parameters to better realize their impacts on the entry and exit thresholds. The results show that for the jump case, the higher probability of occurrence of unfavorable events will result in a higher entry threshold and lower exit threshold. Investors are forced to request higher benefit thresholds to cover the higher probability of losses brought by unfavorable events.

  6. Building political will for HIV response: an operational model and strategy options.

    Brinkerhoff, Derick W

    2016-10-01

    As global programs for HIV response look to transfer responsibility and financing increasingly to country governments, the political will to take on these responsibilities becomes increasingly prominent. However, defining and assessing political will are problematic; it involves intent and motivation, and thus is inherently difficult to observe. It is intimately connected to capacity and is contextually embedded. This article describes an operational model of political will comprised of seven components that are observable and measurable. Two case studies illustrate the application of the model and shed light on the interconnections among commitment, capacity and context: South Africa and China. Strategy options to build political will for HIV response identify possible actions for both government and civil society. Political will as a concept is most usefully viewed as integrated within larger political and bureaucratic processes, as a product of the complex array of incentives and disincentives that those processes create. However, this conclusion is not a recipe for discouragement or inaction. Agent-based conceptualizations of policy change offer a solid grounding for building political will that supports HIV policy and programs. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  7. Modeling and Experimental Tests on the Hydraulically Driven Control Rod option for IRIS Reactor

    Cammi, Antonio; Ricotti, Marco E.; Vitulo, Alessia

    2004-01-01

    The adoption of Internal Control Rod Drive Mechanisms (ICRDMs) represents a valuable alternative to classical, external CRDMs based on electro-magnetic devices, as adopted in current PWRs. The advantages on the safety features of the reactor are apparent: inherent elimination of the Rod Ejection accidents and of possible concerns about the vessel head penetrations. A further positive feedback on the design is the reduction of the primary system overall dimensions. Within the frame of the ICRDM concepts, the Hydraulically Driven Control Rod solution is investigated as a possible option for the IRIS integral reactor. After a brief comparison of the solutions currently proposed for integral reactors, the configuration of the Hydraulic Control Rod device for IRIS, made up by an external movable piston and an internal fixed cylinder, is described. A description of the whole control system is reported as well. Particular attention is devoted to the Control Rod profile characterization, performed by means of a Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) analysis. The investigation of the system behavior has been carried out, including the dynamic equilibrium and its stability properties, the withdrawal and insertion step movement and the sensitivity study on command time periods. A suitable dynamic model has been set up for the mentioned purposes: the models corresponding to the various Control Rod system devices have been written in an Object-Oriented language (Modelica), thus allowing an easy implementation of such a system into the simulator for the whole reactor. Finally, a preliminary low pressure, low temperature, reduced length experimental facility has been built. Tests on HDCR stability and operational transients have been performed. The results are compared with the dynamic system model and CFD simulation model, showing good agreement between simulations and experimental data. During these preliminary tests, the control system performed correctly, allowing stable dynamic

  8. Free-roaming dog populations: a cost-benefit model for different management options, applied to Abruzzo, Italy.

    Høgåsen, H R; Er, C; Di Nardo, A; Dalla Villa, P

    2013-11-01

    Since 1991, Italian free-roaming dogs have been under government protection and euthanasia is restricted by law. Management measures are regulated at the regional level and include: kennelling, adoptions, conversion of stray dogs into block dogs, and population control of owned dogs. "Block dogs" are free-roaming dogs that have been collected by the veterinary services, microchipped, sterilised, vaccinated, and released under the responsibility of the local municipalities. The present paper describes a cost-benefit model for different management options and applies it to two provinces in Abruzzo, central Italy. The model considers welfare, nuisance and direct costs to the municipality. Welfare is quantified based on the expert opinions of 60 local veterinarians, who were asked to assign a score for each dog category according to the five freedoms: freedom from pain, physical discomfort, disease, fear, and freedom to express normal behaviour. Nuisance was assessed only for comparisons between management options, using the number of free-roaming dogs per inhabitant as a proxy indicator. A community dog population model was constructed to predict the effect of management on the different subpopulations of dogs during a ten-year period. It is a user-friendly deterministic model in Excel, easily adaptable to different communities to assess the impact of their dog management policy on welfare, nuisance and direct monetary cost. We present results for Teramo and Pescara provinces. Today's management system is compared to alternative models, which evaluate the effect of specific interventions. These include either a 10% yearly increase in kennel capacity, an increase in adoptions from kennels, a doubling of the capture of stray dogs, or a stabilisation of the owned dog population. Results indicate that optimal management decisions are complex because welfare, nuisance and monetary costs may imply conflicting interventions. Nevertheless, they clearly indicate that

  9. An Agent-Based Approach for Evaluating Basic Design Options of Management Accounting Systems

    Friederike Wall

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates the effectiveness of reducing errors in management accounting systems with respect to organizational performance. In particular, different basic design options of management accounting systems of how to improve the information base by measurements of actual values are analyzed in different organizational contexts. The paper applies an agent-based simulation based on the idea of NK fitness landscapes. The results provide broad, but no universal support for conventional wisdom that lower inaccuracies of accounting information lead to more effective adaptation processes. Furthermore, results indicate that the effectiveness of improving the management accounting system subtly interferes with the complexity of the interactions within the organization and the coordination mode applied

  10. Comparison and evaluation of nuclear power plant options for geosynchronous power stations

    Williams, J.R.

    1975-01-01

    A solution to the safety, safeguards, and radwaste disposal problems of nuclear power is to locate the breeder reactor power plants far out in geosynchronous orbit and beam the power to earth with microwaves. The generation of nuclear power in space is technologically feasible and has already been demonstrated on a small scale. It has also been shown that high efficiency microwave transmission of power from synchronous orbit to earth is feasible and is not hazardous. The reactor safety problem would be virtually eliminated because of the remoteness of the satellite power station in geosynchronous orbit. The worst possible accident at such a plant would have negligible effect on the earth, certainly less than the high altitude nuclear explosions which have been conducted in the past. Accidental re-entry from geosynchronous orbit could not occur because of the very large velocity change required. The safeguards problem can be virtually eliminated by adopting the following procedures: 1) The plant is initially started up using U-235 fuel or bred plutonium or U-233 from another geosynchronous power plant, 2) Once the plant is operating, only nonhazardous fertile materials (thorium or depleted uranium) are shipped up from earth, 3) The fissile fuel is bred and used in space, and none of this highly toxic fissile material is ever returned to earth. The radioactive waste could be concentrated and ejected in canisters into deep space away from the earth. The geosynchronous nuclear power plant offers unlimited nuclear power without nuclear hazards or nuclear pollution, but at somewhat higher cost. Whether or not society will be willing to pay these higher costs of nuclear power from space, or whether new energy resources such as nuclear fusion or solar power become feasible, remains to be seen. A prudent course to follow would be to give careful consideration to all future options for large scale energy generation, including the option of nuclear power from space

  11. Hydrogen storage for wind parks: A real options evaluation for an optimal investment in more flexibility

    Kroniger, Daniel; Madlener, Reinhard

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Economic analysis of investing in H 2 storage for excess wind power production. • Use of real options analysis to account for uncertainty and managerial flexibility. • Hourly profits are simulated for profit-maximizing operation of the storage device. • Revenues by load factor increase, offering minute reserve, temporal arbitrage, H 2 sale. • Power-to-power is unprofitable under current techno-political conditions in Germany. - Abstract: In this paper, we investigate the economic viability of hydrogen storage for excess electricity produced in wind power plants. For the analysis, we define two scenarios (50 MW system with and without re-electrification unit) and apply Monte Carlo simulation and real options analysis (ROA) to compute hourly profits under uncertainty regarding wind speed, spot market electricity prices, and call of minute reserve capacity. Hydrogen as a storage medium helps to either (1) increase capacity utilization of the wind park in case of grid disconnection; (2) to offer minute reserve; or (3) to exploit temporal price arbitrage at the electricity spot market; additionally, hydrogen can also be directly sold as a commodity. We find that power-to-power operation is highly uneconomical under current framework conditions in Germany, irrespective of potential energy efficiency gains. Interestingly, due to counterbalancing effects, offshore wind parks are found to have only a modest economic advantage compared to onshore ones. The power-to-fuel plant can be operated profitably (at hydrogen prices of more than 0.36 € m −3 and a 100% utilization of the electrolyzer) if hydrogen is directly marketed instead of used to store and re-generate electrical energy. The ROA recommends investment in a storage device without re-electrification unit beyond an expected project value that is about twice the investment cost of the storage device, a figure which is reduced markedly as conversion efficiency rises, assuming technical change

  12. Rock mechanics models evaluation report

    1987-08-01

    This report documents the evaluation of the thermal and thermomechanical models and codes for repository subsurface design and for design constraint analysis. The evaluation was based on a survey of the thermal and thermomechanical codes and models that are applicable to subsurface design, followed by a Kepner-Tregoe (KT) structured decision analysis of the codes and models. The primary recommendations of the analysis are that the DOT code be used for two-dimensional thermal analysis and that the STEALTH and HEATING 5/6 codes be used for three-dimensional and complicated two-dimensional thermal analysis. STEALTH and SPECTROM 32 are recommended for thermomechanical analyses. The other evaluated codes should be considered for use in certain applications. A separate review of salt creep models indicate that the commonly used exponential time law model is appropriate for use in repository design studies. 38 refs., 1 fig., 7 tabs

  13. Performance of Solar Proxy Options of IRI-Plas Model for Equinox Seasons

    Sezen, Umut; Gulyaeva, Tamara L.; Arikan, Feza

    2018-02-01

    International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) is the most acclaimed climatic model of the ionosphere. Since 2009, the range of the IRI model has been extended to the Global Positioning System (GPS) orbital height of 20,000 km in the plasmasphere. The new model, which is called IRI extended to Plasmasphere (IRI-Plas), can input not only the ionosonde foF2 and hmF2 but also the GPS-total electron content (TEC). IRI-Plas has been provided at www.ionolab.org, where online computation of ionospheric parameters is accomplished through a user-friendly interface. The solar proxies that are available in IRI-Plas can be listed as sunspot number (SSN1), SSN2, F10.7, global electron content (GEC), TEC, IG, Mg II, Lyman-α, and GEC_RZ. In this study, ionosonde foF2 data are compared with IRI-Plas foF2 values with the Consultative Committee International Radio (CCIR) and International Union of Radio Science (URSI) model choices for each solar proxy, with or without the GPS-TEC input for the equinox months of October 2011 and March 2015. It has been observed that the best fitting model choices in Root Mean Square (RMS) and Normalized RMS (NRMS) sense are the Jet Propulsion Laboratory global ionospheric maps-TEC input with Lyman-α solar proxy option for both months. The input of TEC definitely lowers the difference between the model and ionosonde foF2 values. The IG and Mg II solar proxies produce similar model foF2 values, and they usually are the second and third best fits to the ionosonde foF2 for the midlatitude ionosphere. In high-latitude regions, Jet Propulsion Laboratory global ionospheric map-TEC inputs to IRI-Plas with Lyman-α, GEC_RZ, and TEC solar proxies are the best choices. In equatorial region, the best fitting solar proxies are IG, Lyman-α, and Mg II.

  14. Using Watershed Models and Human Behavioral Analyses to identify Management Options to Reduce Lake Erie's Harmful Algal Blooms

    Martin, J.; Wilson, R. S.; Aloysius, N.; Kalcic, M. M.; Roe, B.; Howard, G.; Irwin, E.; Zhang, W.; Liu, H.

    2017-12-01

    In early 2016, the United States and Canada formally agreed to reduce phosphorus inputs to Lake Erie by 40% to reduce the severity of annual Harmful Algal Blooms (HABs). These blooms have become more severe, with record events occurring in 2011 and 2015, and have compromised public safety, shut down drinking water supplies, and negatively impacted the economy of the western Lake Erie basin. Now, a key question is what management options should be pursued to reach the 40% reduction. This presentation will highlight interdisciplinary research to compare the amount and types of practices needed for this reduction to the current and projected levels of adoption. Multiple models of the Maumee watershed identified management plans and adoption rates needed to reach the reduction targets. For example, one successful scenario estimated necessary adoption rates of 50% for subsurface application of fertilizer on row crops, 58% for cover crops, and 78% for buffer strips. Current adoption is below these levels, but future projections based on farmer surveys shows these levels are possible. This information was then used to guide another round of watershed modeling analysis to evaluate scenarios that represented more realistic scenarios based on potential levels of management adoption. In general, these results show that accelerated adoption of management plans is needed compared to past adoption rates, and that some of these greater adoption levels are possible based on likely adoption rates. Increasing the perceived efficacy of the practices is one method that will support greater voluntary rates of adoption.

  15. An approach for assessing development and deployment risks in the DOE fuel cycle options evaluation and screening study - 5267

    Gehin, J.C.; Worrall, A.; Oakley, B.; Jenni, K.; Taiwo, T.; Wigeland, R.

    2015-01-01

    One of the key objectives of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Nuclear Energy Research/development road-map is the development of sustainable nuclear fuel cycles that can improve natural resource utilization and provide solutions to the management of nuclear wastes. Recently, an evaluation and screening (ES) of fuel cycle systems has been conducted to identify those options that provide the best opportunities for obtaining such improvements and also to identify the required research and development activities that can support the development of advanced fuel cycle options. In order to evaluate and screen fuel cycle systems in the ES study, nine criteria were used including Development and Deployment Risk (DDR). More specifically, this criterion was represented by the following metrics: Development time, development cost, deployment cost from prototypic validation to first-of-a-kind commercial, compatibility with the existing nuclear fuel cycle infrastructure, existence of regulations for the fuel cycle and familiarity with licensing, and existence of market incentives and/or barriers to commercial implementation of fuel cycle processes. Given the comprehensive nature of the study, a systematic approach was needed to determine metric data for the DDR criterion. As would be expected, the Evaluation Group representing the once-through use of uranium in thermal reactors is always the highest ranked fuel cycle Evaluation Group for this DDR criterion. Evaluation Groups that consist of once-through fuel cycles that use existing reactor types are consistently ranked very high. The highest ranked limited and continuous recycle fuel cycle Evaluation Groups are those that recycle Pu in thermal reactors. The lowest ranked fuel cycles are predominately continuous recycle single stage and multi-stage fuel cycles that involve TRU and/or U 233 recycle. (authors)

  16. Greenhouse gas mitigation options in the forestry sector of The Gambia: Analysis based on COMAP model

    Jallow, B.P.

    1996-12-31

    Results of the 1993 Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory of The Gambia showed net CO{sub 2} emissions of over (1.66 x 10{sup 6} tons) and 1% was due to uptake by plantations (0.01 x 10{sup 6} tons). This is a clear indication that there is need to identify changes in the land-use policy, law and tenure that discourages forest clearing at the same time significantly influencing the sustainable distribution of land among forestry, rangeland and livestock, and agriculture. About 11% of the total area of The Gambia is either fallow or barren flats that once supported vegetation and hence is still capable of supporting vegetation. The US Country Study Programme has provided the Government of The Gambia through the National Climate Committee funds to conduct Assessment of Mitigation Options to Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions. The Forestry Sector is one area for which assessment is being conducted. The assessment is expected to end in September 1996. The Comprehensive Mitigation Analysis Process (COMAP) is one of the Models supplied to the National Climate Committee by the Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory, on behalf of the US Country Study Programme, and is being used to conduct the analysis in The Gambia.

  17. Policy options for sustainable energy use in a general model of the UK economy

    Barker, T.; Ekins, P.; Johnstone, N.

    1996-01-01

    A quantitative general economic model has been developed for options available in greenhouse gas abatement policy concerning energy use. It has been applied in three exercises to explore the effects of energy taxes on the United Kingdom economy. One of these examined the effect of the proposed European Commission carbon/energy tax; the second attempts to set out a policy framework which would enable the UK to reach the IPCC target of 60% reduction in CO 2 emissions by 2040 and explores the economic implications; the third compares the proposal of the UK government to levy VAT on domestic fuel with the EC carbon/energy tax. Additionally, estimates have been made of the secondary benefits of reducing CO 2 emissions. The results present a striking contrast to much of the literature. They include the conclusions that: the EC carbon/energy tax would have negligible macroeconomic effects on the UK economy providing revenues were recycled in such a way as to neutralise inflation; reduction of UK CO 2 emissions by 60% would not necessarily cause great economic disruption; the secondary benefits of reducing CO 2 emissions are of sufficient size to alter radically the benefit cost profile of carbon abatement; equity and efficiency should be regarded as complementary, not competing, objectives in the abatement of CO 2 emissions from the domestic sector. (UK)

  18. TANK SPACE OPTIONS REPORT

    Willis, W.L.; Ahrendt, M.R.

    2009-01-01

    Since this report was originally issued in 2001, several options proposed for increasing double-shell tank (DST) storage space were implemented or are in the process of implementation. Changes to the single-shell tank (SST) waste retrieval schedule, completion of DST space saving options, and the DST space saving options in progress have delayed the projected shortfall of DST storage space from the 2007-2011 to the 2018-2025 timeframe (ORP-11242, River Protection Project System Plan). This report reevaluates options from Rev. 0 and includes evaluations of new options for alleviating projected restrictions on SST waste retrieval beginning in 2018 because of the lack of DST storage space.

  19. Valuation for an American Continuous-Installment Put Option on Bond under Vasicek Interest Rate Model

    Guoan Huang

    2009-01-01

    of the price of this option, integral representations of both the optimal stopping and exercise boundaries are derived. A numerical method is used to approximate the optimal stopping and exercise boundaries by quadrature formulas. Numerical results and discussions are provided.

  20. Evaluation of policy options to reform the EU Emissions Trading System. Effects on carbon price, emissions and the economy

    Verdonk, M.; Brink, C.; Vollebergh, H.; Roelfsema, M.

    2013-04-15

    The EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) is a key instrument of EU climate policy, providing a clear reduction pathway for CO2 emissions. The current carbon price (of about 3 euros per tonne of CO2, April 2013) is much lower than previously expected (which was around 30 euros) and is likely to remain low for a long time. This fuels doubts about whether the ETS will remain a key policy instrument in the long term. Such doubts also increase investment uncertainty, which is likely to have a negative impact on further investments in low-carbon technologies needed for a low-carbon economy in 2050. In November 2012, the European Commission put forward six options for a more structural reform of the EU ETS. The proposed options vary from reducing the cap and expanding the ETS to include other sectors, to strengthening the ETS by measures directly affecting allowance prices. The Dutch Ministry of Infrastructure and the Environment (IenM) asked the PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency to assess the impact of these options. Four categories of options for reforming the ETS were evaluated: (1) reducing the supply of emission allowances; (2) expanding the ETS by including other sectors; (3) a minimum price for auctioned allowances; and (4) combining ETS with a carbon tax. Recently, the European Parliament voted against the European Commission's proposal to temporarily set aside emission allowances. In an earlier assessment of this proposal, PBL concluded that the impact of this backloading proposal on CO2 prices is likely to be limited, because the total amount of allowances up to 2020 would remain unchanged. All options analysed would reduce emissions and cause the emission price to increase. A minimum price on carbon, however, would provide the best opportunity to make the ETS more robust against unforeseen events, such as a further deterioration of the economy. Such a minimum price would result in more emission reductions if abatement proves to be cheaper

  1. Fuel price and technological uncertainty in a real options model for electricity planning

    Fuss, Sabine; Szolgayova, Jana

    2010-01-01

    Electricity generation is an important source of total CO 2 emissions, which in turn have been found to relate to an acceleration of global warming. Given that many OECD countries have to replace substantial portions of their electricity-generating capacity over the next 10-20 years, investment decisions today will determine the CO 2 -intensity of the future energy mix. But by what type of power plants will old (mostly fossil-fuel-fired) capacity be replaced? Given that modern, less carbon-intensive technologies are still expensive but can be expected to undergo improvements due to technical change in the near future, they may become more attractive, especially if fossil fuel price volatility makes traditional technologies more risky. At the same time, technological progress is an inherently uncertain process itself. In this paper, we use a real options model with stochastic technical change and stochastic fossil fuel prices in order to investigate their impact on replacement investment decisions in the electricity sector. We find that the uncertainty associated with the technological progress of renewable energy technologies leads to a postponement of investment. Even the simultaneous inclusion of stochastic fossil fuel prices in the same model does not make renewable energy competitive compared to fossil-fuel-fired technology in the short run based on the data used. This implies that policymakers have to intervene if renewable energy is supposed to get diffused more quickly. Otherwise, old fossil-fuel-fired equipment will be refurbished or replaced by fossil-fuel-fired capacity again, which enforces the lock-in of the current system into unsustainable electricity generation. (author)

  2. The EU model evaluation group

    Petersen, K.E.

    1999-01-01

    The model evaluation group (MEG) was launched in 1992 growing out of the Major Technological Hazards Programme with EU/DG XII. The goal of MEG was to improve the culture in which models were developed, particularly by encouraging voluntary model evaluation procedures based on a formalised and consensus protocol. The evaluation intended to assess the fitness-for-purpose of the models being used as a measure of the quality. The approach adopted was focused on developing a generic model evaluation protocol and subsequent targeting this onto specific areas of application. Five such developments have been initiated, on heavy gas dispersion, liquid pool fires, gas explosions, human factors and momentum fires. The quality of models is an important element when complying with the 'Seveso Directive' requiring that the safety reports submitted to the authorities comprise an assessment of the extent and severity of the consequences of identified major accidents. Further, the quality of models become important in the land use planning process, where the proximity of industrial sites to vulnerable areas may be critical. (Copyright (c) 1999 Elsevier Science B.V., Amsterdam. All rights reserved.)

  3. Evaluation of transcranial surgical decompression of the optic canal as a treatment option for traumatic optic neuropathy.

    He, Zhenhua; Li, Qiang; Yuan, Jingmin; Zhang, Xinding; Gao, Ruiping; Han, Yanming; Yang, Wenzhen; Shi, Xuefeng; Lan, Zhengbo

    2015-07-01

    Traumatic optic neuropathy (TON) is a serious complication of head trauma, with the incidence rate ranging from 0.5% to 5%. The two treatment options widely practiced for TON are: (i) high-dose corticosteroid therapy and (ii) surgical decompression. However, till date, there is no consensus on the treatment protocol. This study aimed to evaluate the therapeutic efficacy of transcranial decompression of optic canal in TON patients. A total of 39 patients with visual loss resulting from TON between January 2005 and June 2013 were retrospectively reviewed for preoperative vision, preoperative image, visual evoked potential (VEP), surgical approach, postoperative visual acuity, complications, and follow-up results. All these patients underwent transcranial decompression of optic canal. During the three-month follow-up period, among the 39 patients, 21 showed an improvement in their eyesight, 6 recovered to standard logarithmic visual acuity chart "visible," 10 could count fingers, 2 could see hand movement, and 3 regained light sensation. Visual evoked potential could be used as an important preoperative and prognostic evaluation parameter for TON patients. Once TON was diagnosed, surgery is a promising therapeutic option, especially when a VEP wave is detected, irrespective of the HRCT scan findings. Operative time between trauma and operation is not necessary reference to assess the therapeutic effect of surgical decompression. The poor results of this procedure may be related to the severity of optic nerve injury. The patient's age is an important factor affecting the surgical outcomes. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  4. Evaluation of natural gas supply options for south east and central Europe. Part 1: Indicator definitions and single indicator analysis

    Afgan, Naim H.; Carvalho, Maria G.; Pilavachi, Petros A.; Martins, Nelson

    2007-01-01

    The need for diversification of energy sources is an immanent goal in long term energy strategy. In particular, this is of great importance for the natural gas supply. In this respect, evaluation and assessment of potential natural gas resources and their relation to consumers is of great importance. The natural gas supply in Europe is one of the main issues of European energy strategy to be followed in the future. In particular, the natural gas supply in the southeast countries is important. This paper provides a framework for understanding how much natural gas is available for use in south east and central Europe as well as the links to the recent supply of natural gas and its transport. The analysis is focused on evaluation of the potential routes for natural gas supply to the south east and central European countries. The potential options included in this analysis are the Yamal Route; Nabucco Route; West Balkan Route; LNG NEUM Route and Gas by Wire Route. In this analysis, attention is focused on the following indicators for assessment of potential options: environmental indicator; NG cost indicator; NG transport and royalty indicator; investment indicator; and NG demand indicator. The first part of this paper is devoted to the definition of the indicators and to single indicator analysis. (author)

  5. HTTR criticality calculations with SCALE6: Studies of various geometric and unit-cell options in modeling

    Wang, J. Y.; Chiang, M. H.; Sheu, R. J.; Liu, Y. W. H. [Inst. of Nuclear Engineering and Science, National Tsing Hua Univ., Hsinchu 30013, Taiwan (China)

    2012-07-01

    The fuel element of the High Temperature Engineering Test Reactor (HTTR) presents a doubly heterogeneous geometry, where tiny TRISO fuel particles dispersed in a graphite matrix form the fuel region of a cylindrical fuel rod, and a number of fuel rods together with moderator or reflector then constitute the lattice design of the core. In this study, a series of full-core HTTR criticality calculations were performed with the SCALE6 code system using various geometric and unit-cell options in order to systematically investigate their effects on neutronic analysis. Two geometric descriptions (ARRAY or HOLE) in SCALE6 can be used to construct a complicated and repeated model. The result shows that eliminating the use of HOLE in the HTTR geometric model can save the computation time by a factor of 4. Four unit-cell treatments for resonance self-shielding corrections in SCALE6 were tested to create problem-specific multigroup cross sections for the HTTR core model. Based on the same ENDF/B-VII cross-section library, their results were evaluated by comparing with continuous-energy calculations. The comparison indicates that the INFHOMMEDIUM result overestimates the system multiplication factor (k{sub eff}) by 55 mk, whereas the LATTICECELL and MULTIREGION treatments predict the k{sub eff} values with similar biases of approximately 10 mk overestimation. The DOUBLEHET result shows a more satisfactory agreement, about 4.2 mk underestimation in the k{sub eff} value. In addition, using cell-weighted cross sections instead of an explicit modeling of TRISO particles in fuel region can further reduce the computation time by a factor of 5 without sacrificing accuracy. (authors)

  6. Mobility Models for Systems Evaluation

    Musolesi, Mirco; Mascolo, Cecilia

    Mobility models are used to simulate and evaluate the performance of mobile wireless systems and the algorithms and protocols at the basis of them. The definition of realistic mobility models is one of the most critical and, at the same time, difficult aspects of the simulation of applications and systems designed for mobile environments. There are essentially two possible types of mobility patterns that can be used to evaluate mobile network protocols and algorithms by means of simulations: traces and synthetic models [130]. Traces are obtained by means of measurements of deployed systems and usually consist of logs of connectivity or location information, whereas synthetic models are mathematical models, such as sets of equations, which try to capture the movement of the devices.

  7. Using expanded real options analysis to evaluate capacity expansion decisions under uncertainty in the construction material industry

    Momani, Amer Mohammad

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Capacity expansion generally requires large capital expenditure on illiquid assets. Therefore, decisions to enlarge capacity must support the organisation’s strategic objectives and provide valuable input for the budgeting process. This paper applies an expanded form of Real Options Analysis (ROA to generate and evaluate capacity expansion strategies under uncertainty in the construction material industry. ROA is applied to different expansion strategies associated with different demand scenarios. Evaluating a wider variety of strategies can reduce risk and sponsor decisions that maximise the firm’s value. The case study shows that the execution of a lead expansion strategy with 10-year intervals under a 50 per cent demand satisfaction scenario produces superior results.

  8. Evaluation of small wind turbines in distributed arrangement as sustainable wind energy option for Barbados

    Bishop, Justin D.K.; Amaratunga, Gehan A.J.

    2008-01-01

    The island of Barbados is 99% dependent on fossil fuel imports to satisfy its energy needs, which is unsustainable. This study proposes a 10 MW distributed wind energy scheme using micro wind turbines (WT) of horizontal (HAWT) and vertical axis (VAWT) configurations. These units are rated less than 500 W, and the scheme is hereafter referred to as mWT10. mWT10 is compared to the proposed 10 MW medium WT farm by the Barbados Light and Power Company (BL and P). The economic bottom line is the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE). The results highlight the BL and P proposal as the best economic option at BDS$0.19 per kWh, while that of both mWT10 configurations exceeds the conventional cost of BDS$0.25 by two to nine times. This is attributed to significantly higher relative installation and operational costs. However, the financial gap between mWT10 LCOE and the retail price of electricity is much smaller due to a large fuel surcharge passed on to each customer. Annual additional benefits of using wind energy include: greenhouse gas emissions savings of 6-23 kt of carbon dioxide; and anavoided fuel costs of BDS$1.5-5.3 million. The distributed mWT10 using HAWTs competes directly with the BL and P farm, however, it provides these benefits without the visual or ecological impacts of the larger machines. Conversely, VAWTs have features that favour a visually discrete and widely repeatable scheme but suffer relatively high costs. Therefore, this study illustrates the great potential of small wind turbines to be competitive with conventional wind farms, thus challenging the small wind industry to meet its potential by producing reliable and robust machines at lower cost

  9. Rehabilitation Options

    ... Speech Pathology Occupational Therapy Art Therapy Recreational therapy Neuropsychology Home Care Options Advanced Care Planning Palliative Care ... Speech Pathology Occupational Therapy Art Therapy Recreational therapy Neuropsychology Home Care Options Advanced Care Planning Palliative Care ...

  10. New optional IVC filter for percutaneous retrieval - in vitro evaluation of embolus capturing efficiency

    Guenther, R.W.; Mossdorf, A.; Pfeffer, J.; Buecker, A.; Neuerburg, J.; Hoej, A.R.; Moelgaard-Nielsen, A.; Schmitz-Rode, T.

    2005-01-01

    Purpose: In-vitro evaluation of a new caval filter (Cook Celect Filter) developed for delayed percutaneous retrieval in comparison to the Guenther Tulip filter. Materials and Methods: The new Celect filter is constructed on the basis of the Tulip filter and consists of 4 primary anchoring legs and additional 8 thinner secondary wires to stabilize the filter and to guarantee adequate filtering efficiency. The filtering wires are of the same amount and equal distribution as the filtering wires of the Tulip filter. The secondary wires are arranged in such a way that percutaneous filter retrieval should be possible even if the wires are incorporated into the caval wall. In a flow model (tube size diameter 15-, diameter 22- and diameter 30 mm), the filter was exposed to single and multiple emboli (blood clots) of different sizes (3 x 5, 3 x 10, 5 x 10, 3 x 20, 5 x 20, 7 x 10, 7 x 20 to 10 x 24 mm) to analyse the embolus capturing efficiency under different conditions including eccentric and concentric, horizontal and vertical positions in comparison to the Tulip filter. All testing was carried out in SPSS analytic software; statistical significance was assumed for p-values <0.05. Results: The in-vitro embolus capturing efficiency of the Celect filter proved to be equivalent to the Tulip filter. In the single-embolus test, 91.6% of the clots were captured by the Celect filter and 87.2% by the Tulip filter (p=0.042). Large clots ranging from 7 x 10 to 10 x 24 mm were captured in all cases, whereas the capture rates for the 3 x 5-mm and 3 x 10-mm clots were lower. The filters captured significantly more clots in the concentric than in the eccentric location. There was no significant difference between the overall capture rates of the two filters in the multi-clot test (72.2% vs. 75.1%), which showed deterioration of filter function during multiple clot exposure. With the 15-mm tube, the Celect filter had a significantly higher capture rate than the Tulip filter, whereas it

  11. Intuitionistic fuzzy (IF) evaluations of multidimensional model

    Valova, I.

    2012-01-01

    There are different logical methods for data structuring, but no one is perfect enough. Multidimensional model-MD of data is presentation of data in a form of cube (referred also as info-cube or hypercube) with data or in form of 'star' type scheme (referred as multidimensional scheme), by use of F-structures (Facts) and set of D-structures (Dimensions), based on the notion of hierarchy of D-structures. The data, being subject of analysis in a specific multidimensional model is located in a Cartesian space, being restricted by D-structures. In fact, the data is either dispersed or 'concentrated', therefore the data cells are not distributed evenly within the respective space. The moment of occurrence of any event is difficult to be predicted and the data is concentrated as per time periods, location of performed business event, etc. To process such dispersed or concentrated data, various technical strategies are needed. The basic methods for presentation of such data should be selected. The approaches of data processing and respective calculations are connected with different options for data representation. The use of intuitionistic fuzzy evaluations (IFE) provide us new possibilities for alternative presentation and processing of data, subject of analysis in any OLAP application. The use of IFE at the evaluation of multidimensional models will result in the following advantages: analysts will dispose with more complete information for processing and analysis of respective data; benefit for the managers is that the final decisions will be more effective ones; enabling design of more functional multidimensional schemes. The purpose of this work is to apply intuitionistic fuzzy evaluations of multidimensional model of data. (authors)

  12. Policy options for alcohol price regulation: the importance of modelling population heterogeneity.

    Meier, Petra Sylvia; Purshouse, Robin; Brennan, Alan

    2010-03-01

    Context and aims Internationally, the repertoire of alcohol pricing policies has expanded to include targeted taxation, inflation-linked taxation, taxation based on alcohol-by-volume (ABV), minimum pricing policies (general or targeted), bans of below-cost selling and restricting price-based promotions. Policy makers clearly need to consider how options compare in reducing harms at the population level, but are also required to demonstrate proportionality of their actions, which necessitates a detailed understanding of policy effects on different population subgroups. This paper presents selected findings from a policy appraisal for the UK government and discusses the importance of accounting for population heterogeneity in such analyses. Method We have built a causal, deterministic, epidemiological model which takes account of differential preferences by population subgroups defined by age, gender and level of drinking (moderate, hazardous, harmful). We consider purchasing preferences in terms of the types and volumes of alcoholic beverages, prices paid and the balance between bars, clubs and restaurants as opposed to supermarkets and off-licenses. Results Age, sex and level of drinking fundamentally affect beverage preferences, drinking location, prices paid, price sensitivity and tendency to substitute for other beverage types. Pricing policies vary in their impact on different product types, price points and venues, thus having distinctly different effects on subgroups. Because population subgroups also have substantially different risk profiles for harms, policies are differentially effective in reducing health, crime, work-place absence and unemployment harms. Conclusion Policy appraisals must account for population heterogeneity and complexity if resulting interventions are to be well considered, proportionate, effective and cost-effective.

  13. Lateral Cricoarytenoid Release: Development of a Novel Surgical Treatment Option for Adductor Spasmodic Dysphonia in a Canine Laryngeal Model.

    Park, Andrea M; Paniello, Randal C

    2016-09-01

    To investigate the efficacy of a novel adductor muscle-releasing technique designed to decrease the force of vocal fold adduction, as a potential surgical therapy for patients with adductor spasmodic dysphonia (ADSD). Experimental animal study. A canine laryngeal model was used to assess the acute and sustained efficacy of a lateral cricoarytenoid (LCA) muscle release. A total of 34 canine hemilaryngeal preparations were divided among 7 experimental groups. The LCA muscle was separated from its cricoid cartilage origin via an open, anterior, submucosal approach. The laryngeal adductory pressures (LAP) were assessed pre- and post-muscle release via direct recurrent laryngeal nerve stimulation. Measurements were repeated at 1.5, 3, or 6 months postoperatively. Another study evaluated release of the thyroarytenoid (TA) muscle from its thyroid cartilage origin. Releasing the LCA muscle demonstrated a significant decrease in LAP acutely and was maintained at all 3 time points with the aid of a barrier (P < .05). Without the barrier, the LCA muscle reattached to the cricoid. Acute release of the TA muscle did not significantly decrease the LAP. The proposed LCA release procedure may provide patients with a permanent treatment option for ADSD. However, longer-term studies and human trials are needed. © The Author(s) 2016.

  14. Feasibility analysis in the expansion proposal of the nuclear power plant Laguna Verde: application of real options, binomial model

    Hernandez I, S.; Ortiz C, E.; Chavez M, C.

    2011-11-01

    At the present time, is an unquestionable fact that the nuclear electrical energy is a topic of vital importance, no more because eliminates the dependence of the hydrocarbons and is friendly with the environment, but because is also a sure and reliable energy source, and represents a viable alternative before the claims in the growing demand of electricity in Mexico. Before this panorama, was intended several scenarios to elevate the capacity of electric generation of nuclear origin with a variable participation. One of the contemplated scenarios is represented by the expansion project of the nuclear power plant Laguna Verde through the addition of a third reactor that serves as detonator of an integral program that proposes the installation of more nuclear reactors in the country. Before this possible scenario, the Federal Commission of Electricity like responsible organism of supplying energy to the population should have tools that offer it the flexibility to be adapted to the possible changes that will be presented along the project and also gives a value to the risk to future. The methodology denominated Real Options, Binomial model was proposed as an evaluation tool that allows to quantify the value of the expansion proposal, demonstrating the feasibility of the project through a periodic visualization of their evolution, all with the objective of supplying a financial analysis that serves as base and justification before the evident apogee of the nuclear energy that will be presented in future years. (Author)

  15. Numerical Methods for Pricing American Options with Time-Fractional PDE Models

    Zhiqiang Zhou

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we develop a Laplace transform method and a finite difference method for solving American option pricing problem when the change of the option price with time is considered as a fractal transmission system. In this scenario, the option price is governed by a time-fractional partial differential equation (PDE with free boundary. The Laplace transform method is applied to the time-fractional PDE. It then leads to a nonlinear equation for the free boundary (i.e., optimal early exercise boundary function in Laplace space. After numerically finding the solution of the nonlinear equation, the Laplace inversion is used to transform the approximate early exercise boundary into the time space. Finally the approximate price of the American option is obtained. A boundary-searching finite difference method is also proposed to solve the free-boundary time-fractional PDEs for pricing the American options. Numerical examples are carried out to compare the Laplace approach with the finite difference method and it is confirmed that the former approach is much faster than the latter one.

  16. Evaluation of selected near-term energy-conservation options for the Midwest

    Evans, A.R.; Colsher, C.S.; Hamilton, R.W.; Buehring, W.A.

    1978-11-01

    This report evaluates the potential for implementation of near-term energy-conservation practices for the residential, commercial, agricultural, industrial, transportation, and utility sectors of the economy in twelve states: Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, South Dakota, and Wisconsin. The information used to evaluate the magnitude of achievable energy savings includes regional energy use, the regulatory/legislative climate relating to energy conservation, technical characteristics of the measures, and their feasibility of implementation. This work is intended to provide baseline information for an ongoing regional assessment of energy and environmental impacts in the Midwest. 80 references.

  17. Utility-free heuristic models of two-option choice can mimic predictions of utility-stage models under many conditions

    Steven T Piantadosi

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Economists often model choices as if decision-makers assign each option a scalar value variable, known as utility, and then select the option with the highest utility. It remains unclear whether as-if utility models describe real mental and neural steps in choice. Although choices alone cannot prove the existence of a utility stage in choice, utility transformations are often taken to provide the most parsimonious or psychologically plausible explanation for choice data. Here, we show that it is possible to mathematically transform a large set of common utility-stage two-option choice models (specifically ones in which dimensions are linearly separable into a psychologically plausible heuristic model (specifically, a dimensional prioritization heuristic that has no utility computation stage. We then show that under a range of plausible assumptions, both classes of model predict similar neural responses. These results highlight the difficulties in using neuroeconomic data to infer the existence of a value stage in choice.

  18. Utility-free heuristic models of two-option choice can mimic predictions of utility-stage models under many conditions

    Piantadosi, Steven T.; Hayden, Benjamin Y.

    2015-01-01

    Economists often model choices as if decision-makers assign each option a scalar value variable, known as utility, and then select the option with the highest utility. It remains unclear whether as-if utility models describe real mental and neural steps in choice. Although choices alone cannot prove the existence of a utility stage, utility transformations are often taken to provide the most parsimonious or psychologically plausible explanation for choice data. Here, we show that it is possible to mathematically transform a large set of common utility-stage two-option choice models (specifically ones in which dimensions are can be decomposed into additive functions) into a heuristic model (specifically, a dimensional prioritization heuristic) that has no utility computation stage. We then show that under a range of plausible assumptions, both classes of model predict similar neural responses. These results highlight the difficulties in using neuroeconomic data to infer the existence of a value stage in choice. PMID:25914613

  19. Application of Fuzzy Synthetic Evaluation in Selection of Best Sludge Dewatering Option in Ghods Town WWTP in Tehran

    Masoud Taheriyoun

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The design and upgrade of sludge treatment systems generally depend on the decision made regarding the appropriate system from among the options available. The selection process has become increasingly important and complex due to recent technological developments that have led to increased diversity in the available options which offer a wide variety of capabilities. The multi-criteria decision making method is one of the techniques recently developed which takes into account all the criteria involved in the decision making process. The Ghods Town WWTP in the west of Tehran located in the vicinity of residential areas has given rise to claims by citizens due to the odors emitted by the sludge sand drying bed, which justifies the replacement of the present sludge dewatering system. For this purpose, the multi-criteria decision making method based on the fuzzy synthetic evaluation method was used to identify the optimal sludge dewatering system appropriate for the WWTP under consideration. Furthermore, weighting of the subjective (social, environmental, and administrative criteria was accomplished using the analytical hierarchy process and the objective (i.e., economic criteria were weighted using the entropy concept. In this method, the triangular fuzzy membership function was also used to take into account the uncertainty associated with each of the decision making parameters. Based on the results obtained, the belt filter press dewatering system and the filter press were identified as the preferred solutions.

  20. Evaluating Options for Disposal of Low-Level Waste at LANL

    Hargis, K.M.; French, S.B.; Boyance, J.A.

    2009-01-01

    Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) generates a wide range of waste types, including solid low-level radioactive waste (LLW), in conducting its national security mission and other science and technology activities. Although most of LANL's LLW has been disposed on-site, limitations on expansion, stakeholder concerns, and the potential for significant volumes from environmental remediation and decontamination and demolition (D and D) have led LANL to evaluate the feasibility of increasing off-site disposal. It appears that most of the LLW generated at LANL would meet the Waste Acceptance Criteria at the Nevada Test Site or available commercial LLW disposal sites. Some waste is considered to be problematic to transport to off-site disposal even though it could meet the off-site Waste Acceptance Criteria. Cost estimates for off-site disposal are being evaluated for comparison to estimated costs under the current plans for continued on-site disposal. An evaluation of risks associated with both on-site and off-site disposal will also be conducted. (authors)

  1. Comparative cost-effectiveness of Option B+ for prevention of mother to child transmission of HIV in Malawi: Mathematical modelling study

    Tweya, Hannock; Keiser, Olivia; Haas, Andreas D.; Tenthani, Lyson; Phiri, Sam; Egger, Matthias; Estill, Janne

    2016-01-01

    Objective To estimate the cost-effectiveness of prevention of mother to child transmission (MTCT) of HIV with lifelong antiretroviral therapy (ART) for pregnant and breastfeeding women (‘Option B+’) compared to ART during pregnancy or breastfeeding only unless clinically indicated (‘Option B’). Design Mathematical modelling study of first and second pregnancy, informed by data from the Malawi Option B+ programme. Methods Individual-based simulation model. We simulated cohorts of 10,000 women and their infants during two subsequent pregnancies, including the breastfeeding period, with either Option B+ or B. We parameterised the model with data from the literature and by analysing programmatic data. We compared total costs of ante-natal and post-natal care, and lifetime costs and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) of the infected infants between Option B+ and Option B. Results During the first pregnancy, 15% of the infants born to HIV-infected mothers acquired the infection. With Option B+, 39% of the women were on ART at the beginning of the second pregnancy, compared to 18% with Option B. For second pregnancies, the rates MTCT were 11.3% with Option B+ and 12.3% with Option B. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio comparing the two options ranged between about US$ 500 and US$ 1300 per DALY averted. Conclusion Option B+ prevents more vertical transmissions of HIV than Option B, mainly because more women are already on ART at the beginning of the next pregnancy. Option B+ is a cost-effective strategy for PMTCT if the total future costs and lost lifetime of the infected infants are taken into account. PMID:26691682

  2. Evaluating Water Supply and Water Quality Management Options for Las Vegas Valley

    Ahmad, S.

    2007-05-01

    The ever increasing population in Las Vegas is generating huge demand for water supply on one hand and need for infrastructure to collect and treat the wastewater on the other hand. Current plans to address water demand include importing water from Muddy and Virgin Rivers and northern counties, desalination of seawater with trade- payoff in California, water banking in Arizona and California, and more intense water conservation efforts in the Las Vegas Valley (LVV). Water and wastewater in the LVV are intrinsically related because treated wastewater effluent is returned back to Lake Mead, the drinking water source for the Valley, to get a return credit thereby augmenting Nevada's water allocation from the Colorado River. The return of treated wastewater however, is a major contributor of nutrients and other yet unregulated pollutants to Lake Mead. Parameters that influence the quantity of water include growth of permanent and transient population (i.e., tourists), indoor and outdoor water use, wastewater generation, wastewater reuse, water conservation, and return flow credits. The water quality of Lake Mead and the Colorado River is affected by the level of treatment of wastewater, urban runoff, groundwater seepage, and a few industrial inputs. We developed an integrated simulation model, using system dynamics modeling approach, to account for both water quantity and quality in the LVV. The model captures the interrelationships among many variables that influence both, water quantity and water quality. The model provides a valuable tool for understanding past, present and future pathways of water and its constituents in the LVV. The model is calibrated and validated using the available data on water quantity (flows at water and wastewater treatment facilities and return water credit flow rates) and water quality parameters (TDS and phosphorus concentrations). We used the model to explore important questions: a)What would be the effect of the water transported from

  3. Variation in information use in the evaluation of the social acceptability of nuclear waste management options

    Allen, P.T.

    1991-01-01

    This article considers how technical information is used in forming judgements about such complex technological phenomena as nuclear waste management. Public understanding and acceptance of innovations is also considered, particularly where health and safety issues are involved. Education of the public is not a total solution. Many problems include political, social or ethical aspects which impinge on how they are judged by non-scientists. In addition, the vested interests of various parties must be weighed. A field-based experiment is described which is designed to illustrate the difference between ''normal'' and ''normative'' evaluation procedures used by both technically experienced and lay participants. (UK)

  4. ALGORITHM FOR GENERALIZED GARMAN EQUATION IN OPTION PRICING OF A FINANCIAL DERIVATIVES WITH STOCHASTIC VOLATILITY MODELS

    Maxim Ioan

    2009-05-01

    Full Text Available In our paper we build a reccurence from generalized Garman equation and discretization of 3-dimensional domain. From reccurence we build an algorithm for computing values of an option based on time, momentan volatility of support and value of support on a

  5. Pest risk assessment of Monilinia fructicola for the EU territory and identification and evaluation of risk management options

    Baker, R.; Candresse, T.; Dormannsné Simon, E.

    2011-01-01

    The EFSA Panel on Plant Health has delivered a pest risk assessment on the risk posed by Monilinia fructicola to the EU territory and has identified risk management options and evaluated their effectiveness in reducing the risk to plant health posed by this organism. The Panel has also analysed...... the effectiveness of the special requirements presently listed in Annex IV, Part A, Section I of Council Directive 2000/29/EC, in reducing the risk of introduction of this pest into the EU territory. The Panel concluded that the main pathways for entry into the EU territory are plant material for propagation...... of the risk assessment area. Cultural practices and control measures currently applied and competition with other Monilinia species cannot prevent the establishment of M. fructicola. The probability of spread is very likely because of the multiple ways of dispersal of the pest. The overall impact...

  6. A scenario analysis of future energy systems based on an energy flow model represented as functionals of technology options

    Kikuchi, Yasunori; Kimura, Seiichiro; Okamoto, Yoshitaka; Koyama, Michihisa

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Energy flow model was represented as the functionals of technology options. • Relationships among available technologies can be visualized by developed model. • Technology roadmapping can be incorporated into the model as technical scenario. • Combination of technologies can increase their contribution to the environment. - Abstract: The design of energy systems has become an issue all over the world. A single optimal system cannot be suggested because the availability of infrastructure and resources and the acceptability of the system should be discussed locally, involving all related stakeholders in the energy system. In particular, researchers and engineers of technologies related to energy systems should be able to perform the forecasting and roadmapping of future energy systems and indicate quantitative results of scenario analyses. We report an energy flow model developed for analysing scenarios of future Japanese energy systems implementing a variety of feasible technology options. The model was modularized and represented as functionals of appropriate technology options, which enables the aggregation and disaggregation of energy systems by defining functionals for single technologies, packages integrating multi-technologies, and mini-systems such as regions implementing industrial symbiosis. Based on the model, the combinations of technologies on both energy supply and demand sides can be addressed considering not only the societal scenarios such as resource prices, economic growth and population change but also the technical scenarios including the development and penetration of energy-related technologies such as distributed solid oxide fuel cells in residential sectors and new-generation vehicles, and the replacement and shift of current technologies such as heat pumps for air conditioning and centralized power generation. The developed model consists of two main modules; namely, a power generation dispatching module for the

  7. Evaluation of options for disposition of dispersible material in B-Cell

    Tokarz, R.D.; Defferding, L.J.; Adickes, M.D.; Keene, K.E.; Pilger, J.P.; Alzheimer, J.M.; Paxton, M.M.

    1993-10-01

    The radioactive contaminants in the dispersible material in B-cell of the 324 Building Radiochemical Energy (RE) hot-cell complex at the Hanford Site in southeastern Washington exceed the allowable level. In 1986, there was a spill of 1.3 million curies of concentrated cesium and strontium in B-cell. Cleanup is required, and candidate technologies for cleaning up or otherwise addressing problems associated with the dispersible material are being evaluated by Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL). The RE hot-cell complex in 324 Building was constructed in the late 1950s. From the early 1960s until today the complex has been the site of numerous research, development, and demonstration programs using radioactive and hazardous materials. In mid-FY 1988, a program to clean B-cell was initiated. At present, dispersible material has been collected from 45% of the cell floor area, and 64% of the equipment and support racks have been removed from the cell. The evaluation of decontamination procedures are described

  8. An Evaluation System for University–Industry Partnership Sustainability: Enhancing Options for Entrepreneurial Universities

    Artūras Kaklauskas

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The concept of university–industry partnership sustainability (UIPS stands for well-adjusted progress among key players from universities and industry by sustaining their welfare, both in the present and in the future. This paper sought to develop an evaluation system for UIPS. The need for such a system is justified at three levels: the micro level (i.e., research and innovation performance, transfer and absorptive capability, and technology development, the meso level (i.e., institutional arrangements, communication networks, and local and indigenous rules and the macro level (i.e., supply and demand, regulations, financing, taxes, culture, traditions, market, climate, politics, demographics, and technology. The UIPS evaluation system developed in this study offers the possibility of calculating a fair value of UIPS and providing recommendations for improving university–industry (U–I partnerships. This can be of great importance for entrepreneurial universities that would like to strengthen their corporate links and/or reduce/reverse the “hollowing effect” of globalisation in disadvantaged regions. Additionally, this paper also contains discussions on the advantages, limitations, and managerial implications of this proposal.

  9. The residuals analysis project: Evaluating disposal options for treated mixed low-level waste

    Waters, R.D.; Gruebel, M.M.; Case, J.T.; Letourneau, M.J.

    1997-01-01

    For almost four years, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) through its Federal Facility Compliance Act Disposal Workgroup has been working with state regulators and governors' offices to develop an acceptable configuration for disposal of its mixed low-level waste (MLLW). These interactions have resulted in screening the universe of potential disposal sites from 49 to 15 and conducting ''performance evaluations'' for those fifteen sites to estimate their technical capabilities for disposal of MLLW. In the residuals analysis project, we estimated the volume of DOE's MLLW that will require disposal after treatment and the concentrations of radionuclides in the treated waste. We then compared the radionuclide concentrations with the disposal limits determined in the performance evaluation project for each of the fifteen sites. The results are a scoping-level estimate of the required volumetric capacity for MLLW disposal and the identification of waste streams that may pose problems for disposal based on current treatment plans. The analysis provides technical information for continued discussions between the DOE and affected States about disposal of MLLW and systematic input to waste treatment developers on disposal issues

  10. Evaluation of surface water treatment and discharge options for the Weldon Spring Site Remedial Action Project

    Goyette, M.L.; MacDonell, M.M.

    1992-01-01

    The US Department of Energy (DOE), under its Environmental Restoration and Waste Management Program, is responsible for conducting response actions at the Weldon Spring site in St. Charles County, Missouri. The site consists of two noncontiguous areas: (1) the chemical plant area, which includes four raffinate pits and two small ponds, and (2) a 3.6-ha (9-acre) quarry located about 6.4 km (4 mi) southwest of the chemical plant area. Both of these areas became chemically and radioactively contaminated as a result of processing and disposal activities that took place from the 1940s through 1960s. The Weldon Spring site, located about 48 km (30 mi) west of St. Louis, is listed on the National Priorities List of the US Environmental Protection Agency. Nitroaromatic explosives were processed by the Army at the chemical plant area during the 1940s, and radioactive materials were processed by DOE's predecessor agency (the Atomic Energy Commission) during the 1950s and 1960s. Overall remediation of the Weldon Spring site is being addressed through the Weldon Spring Site Remedial Action Project, and it consists of several components. One component is the management of radioactively and chemically contaminated surface water impoundments at the chemical plant area -- i.e., the four raffinate pits, Frog Pond, and Ash Pond which was addressed under a separate action and documented in an engineering evaluation/cost analysis report. This report discusses the evaluation of surface water treatment at the Weldon Spring site

  11. Carbon accounting of forest bioenergy: from model calibrations to policy options (Invited)

    Lamers, P.

    2013-12-01

    knowledge in the field by comparing different state-of-the-art temporal forest carbon modeling efforts, and discusses whether or to what extent a deterministic ';carbon debt' accounting is possible and appropriate. It concludes upon the possible scientific and eventually political choices in temporal carbon accounting for regulatory frameworks including alternative options to address unintentional carbon losses within forest ecosystems/bioenergy systems.

  12. Evaluations of the new LiF-scintillator and optional brightness enhancement films for neutron imaging

    Iikura, H., E-mail: Iikura.hiroshi@jaea.go.jp [Japan Atomic Energy Agency, 2-4 Shirakata-shirane, Tokai-mura, Naka-gun, Ibaraki (Japan); Tsutsui, N. [Chichibu Fuji Co., Ltd., Ogano, Chichibu, Saitama 368-0193 (Japan); Nakamura, T.; Katagiri, M.; Kureta, M. [Japan Atomic Energy Agency, 2-4 Shirakata-shirane, Tokai-mura, Naka-gun, Ibaraki (Japan); Kubo, J. [Nissan Motor Co., Ltd., Atsugi, Kanagawa 243-0126 (Japan); Matsubayashi, M. [Japan Atomic Energy Agency, 2-4 Shirakata-shirane, Tokai-mura, Naka-gun, Ibaraki (Japan)

    2011-09-21

    Japan Atomic Energy Agency has developed the neutron scintillator jointly with Chichibu Fuji Co., Ltd. In this study, we evaluated the new ZnS(Ag):Al/{sup 6}Li scintillator developed for neutron imaging. It was confirmed that the brightness increased by about double while maintaining equal performance for the spatial resolution as compared with a conventional scintillator. High frame-rate imaging using a high-speed video camera system and this new scintillator made it possible to image beyond 10 000 frames per second while still having enough brightness. This technique allowed us to obtain a high-frame-rate visualization of oil flow in a running car engine. Furthermore, we devised a technique to increase the light intensity of reception for a camera by adding brightness enhancement films on the output surface of the scintillator. It was confirmed that the spatial resolution degraded more than double, but the brightness increased by about three times.

  13. Economic evaluation of CO2 respone options in the forestry sector: the case of Thailand

    Wangwacharakul, V.; Bowonwiwat, R.

    1995-01-01

    Using the benefit-cost analysis approach, this paper attempts to evaluate the potential of the forestry sector in Thailand to reduce carbon emissions of the country. Protecting conserved forests can avoid a substantial amount of carbon emission from deforestation, although certain costs are attached. Reforestation also enhances carbon sequestration and, in most cases, incurs no cost to society. Under the present government's commitment to fully protect the conserved forests and reforest the deforested areas in the country, Thailand could reduce the growth of carbon emission by as much as 260 million tons over the next two decades. The costs to society, if any, would be small given other, non-quantifiable, benefits of the forests. (Author)

  14. Evaluation of optional fee structures for solid waste management in China.

    Wu, Yun-Ga; Chu, Zhu-Jie; Zhuang, Jun

    2018-06-01

    A municipal solid waste fee has become an important means for the implementation of the waste management rendered by the government all around the world. Based on the ecological environmental compensation theory, this article constructs an analytical framework of waste charging from the perspective of public policy evaluation, to carry on the comprehensive comparison and analysis to the operability, feasibility, validity, rationality, and universality of the two modes of waste charging: Ration charge and unit-pricing modes. The results indicate that in the cities with large amounts of waste production, long time of waste charging, and high disposal rate, pilot projects should be carried out; and the government needs to improve the construction of associated laws and regulations.

  15. Treatment option evaluation for liquid effluent secondary streams on the Hanford Site

    Holter, G.M.; Triplett, M.B.; Fow, C.L.; White, M.K.

    1988-08-01

    This study, conducted by the Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) for Westinghouse Hanford Company (WHC), examines the range of secondary waste types and volumes likely to result from treatment of contaminated liquid effluents. Alternatives for treatment of these effluents were considered, taking into account the implementation of the ''best-available technology'' as assumed in current and ongoing engineering studies for treating the various liquid effluent waste streams. These treatment alternatives, and potential variations in the operating schedules for Hanford Site facilities generating contaminated liquid effluents, were evaluated to project an estimated range for the volume of each of the various secondary waste streams that are likely to be generated. The conclusions and recommendations were developed, based on these estimates. 23 refs., 34 figs., 16 tabs

  16. Sustainability of arsenic mitigation interventions – an evaluation of different alternative safe drinking water options provided in Matlab, an arsenic hot spot in Bangladesh

    MOHAMMED eHOSSAIN

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available The wide spread occurrence of geogenic arsenic (As in Bangladesh groundwater drastically reduced the safe water access across the country. Since its discovery in 1993, different mitigation options tested at household and community scale have resulted in limited success. In an arsenic hotspot of southeastern Bangladesh, 841 arsenic removal filter (ARF, 190 surface water filter membrane, 23 pond sand filter (PSF, 147 rain water harvester (RWH and 59 As-safe tubewell were distributed among the severely exposed population by AsMat, a Sida supported project. After three-four years of providing these safe water options, this study was carried out during 2010-2011 for performance analysis of these options, in terms of technical viability and effectiveness and thus to evaluate the preference of different options to the end users. Household and community based surveys were done to make an assessment of the current water use pattern as impact of the distributed options, overall condition of the options provided and to identify the reasons why these options are in use and/or abandoned. In total, 284 households were surveyed and information was collected for 23 PSF, 147 RWH and 59 tubewells. None of the filters was found in use. Among other options distributed, 13% of PSF, 40% RWH and 93% of tubewell were found functioning. In all cases, tubewells were found As-safe. About 89% of households are currently using tubewell water which was 58% before. Filter was abandoned for high cost and complicated maintenance. The use of RWH and PSF was not found user friendly and ensuring year round water quality is a big challenge. Arsenic-safe tubewell was found as a widely accepted option mainly because of its easy operation and availability of water, good water quality and negligible maintenance. This study validated tubewell as the most feasible option and holds significance for planning water supply projects, improving mitigation policy as well as developing awareness

  17. A Study on the Economic Analysis for Overseas Project of New Nuclear Power Plant Using Binomial Option Pricing Model and Monte Carlo Simulation

    Kim, Beong Gwon; Roh, Myung Sub [KEPCO International Nuclear Graduate School, Ulsan (Korea, Republic of)

    2014-10-15

    Real options approach is suitable for evaluation of large-scale investment project with great uncertainties. Takizawa and Omori (2001) introduced a real option approach to calculate electricity price for economic feasibility. Rothwell (2006) modeled the net present value (NPV) of building an ABWR in Texas using ROA to determine the risk premium associated with net revenue uncertainty. W.C Yoon (2006) evaluated nuclear power plant construction value using DCF and ROA with sensitivity analysis. The value evaluations involved with nuclear power are very uncertain. This is because of a long period of construction as well as the cost uncertainties of decommissioning and nuclear waste management. Even more elements should be considered in new nuclear power valuation, including the uncertainty from the technology, operating costs, the potential risk of radiation, electricity mechanism and climate policy. In this respect, a traditional method such as discounted cash flow (DCF) can't fully catch the impacts of these uncertainties on nuclear power investment. So it is necessary to develop a proper method to handle such kinds of uncertainties to evaluate the new deployment of nuclear power plants. Meanwhile, overseas construction projects which are required capital investment, localization by target countries are increasing in these days. These elements may influence the uncertainty of project too.

  18. Quantitative Evaluation of Biologic Therapy Options for Psoriasis: A Systematic Review and Network Meta-Analysis.

    Jabbar-Lopez, Zarif K; Yiu, Zenas Z N; Ward, Victoria; Exton, Lesley S; Mohd Mustapa, M Firouz; Samarasekera, Eleanor; Burden, A David; Murphy, Ruth; Owen, Caroline M; Parslew, Richard; Venning, Vanessa; Warren, Richard B; Smith, Catherine H

    2017-08-01

    Multiple biologic treatments are licensed for psoriasis. The lack of head-to-head randomized controlled trials makes choosing between them difficult for patients, clinicians, and guideline developers. To establish their relative efficacy and tolerability, we searched MEDLINE, PubMed, Embase, and Cochrane for randomized controlled trials of licensed biologic treatments for skin psoriasis. We performed a network meta-analysis to identify direct and indirect evidence comparing biologics with one another, methotrexate, or placebo. We combined this with hierarchical cluster analysis to consider multiple outcomes related to efficacy and tolerability in combination for each treatment. Study quality, heterogeneity, and inconsistency were evaluated. Direct comparisons from 41 randomized controlled trials (20,561 participants) were included. All included biologics were efficacious compared with placebo or methotrexate at 3-4 months. Overall, cluster analysis showed adalimumab, secukinumab, and ustekinumab were comparable in terms of high efficacy and tolerability. Ixekizumab and infliximab were differentiated by very high efficacy but poorer tolerability. The lack of longer term controlled data limited our analysis to short-term outcomes. Trial performance may not equate to real-world performance, and so results need to be considered alongside real-world, long-term safety and effectiveness data. These data suggest that it is possible to discriminate between biologics to inform clinical practice and decision making (PROSPERO 2015:CRD42015017538). Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. Evaluating and planning the radioactive waste options for dismantling the Tokamak Fusion Test Reactor

    Rule, K.; Scott, J.; Larson, S. [Princeton Plasma Physics Lab., NJ (United States)] [and others

    1995-12-31

    The Tokamak Fusion Test Reactor (TFTR) is a one-of-a kind tritium fusion research reactor, and is planned to be decommissioned within the next several years. This is the largest fusion reactor in the world and as a result of deuterium-tritum reactions is tritium contaminated and activated from 14 Mev neutrons. This presents many unusual challenges when dismantling, packaging and disposing its components and ancillary systems. Special containers are being designed to accommodate the vacuum vessel, neutral beams, and tritium delivery and processing systems. A team of experienced professionals performed a detailed field study to evaluate the requirements and appropriate methods for packaging the radioactive materials. This team focused on several current and innovative methods for waste minimization that provides the oppurtunmost cost effective manner to package and dispose of the waste. This study also produces a functional time-phased schedule which conjoins the waste volume, weight, costs and container requirements with the detailed project activity schedule for the entire project scope. This study and project will be the first demonstration of the decommissioning of a tritium fusion test reactor. The radioactive waste disposal aspects of this project are instrumental in demonstrating the viability of a fusion power reactor with regard to its environmental impact and ultimate success.

  20. Performance evaluation of an integrated solar water heater as an option for building energy conservation

    Dharuman, C.; Arakeri, J.H.; Srinivasan, K. [Indian Inst. of Science, Bangalaore (India). Dept. of Mechanical Engineering

    2006-03-15

    Since a majority of residential and industrial building hot water needs are around 50 {sup o}C, an integrated solar water heater could provide a bulk source that blends collection and storage into one unit. This paper describes the design, construction and performance test results of one such water-heating device. The test unit has an absorber area of 1.3 m{sup 2} and can hold 170 l of water, of which extractable volume per day is 100 l. Its performance was evaluated under various typical operating conditions. Every morning at about 7:00 a.m., 100 l of hot water were drawn from the sump and replaced with cold water from the mains. Although, during most of the days, the peak temperatures of water obtained are between 50 and 60 {sup o}C, the next morning temperatures were lower at 45-50 {sup o}C. Daytime collection efficiencies of about 60% and overall efficiencies of about 40% were obtained. Tests were conducted with and without stratification. Night radiation losses were reduced by use of a screen insulation. (author)

  1. Scaling and long-range dependence in option pricing V: Multiscaling hedging and implied volatility smiles under the fractional Black-Scholes model with transaction costs

    Wang, Xiao-Tian

    2011-05-01

    This paper deals with the problem of discrete time option pricing using the fractional Black-Scholes model with transaction costs. Through the ‘anchoring and adjustment’ argument in a discrete time setting, a European call option pricing formula is obtained. The minimal price of an option under transaction costs is obtained. In addition, the relation between scaling and implied volatility smiles is discussed.

  2. 488-1D Ash Basin closure cap help modeling- Microdrain® liner option

    Dyer, J. A. [Savannah River Site (SRS), Aiken, SC (United States). Savannah River National Lab. (SRNL)

    2017-08-03

    At the request of Area Completion Engineering and in support of the 488-1D Ash Basin closure, the Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) performed hydrologic simulations of the revised 488-1D Ash Basin closure cap design using the Hydrologic Evaluation of Landfill Performance (HELP) model. The revised design substitutes a MicroDrain Liner®—60-mil low-density polyethylene geomembrane structurally integrated with 130-mil drainage layer—for the previously planned drainage/barrier system—300-mil geosynthetic drainage layer (GDL), 300-mil geosynthetic clay liner (GCL), and 6-inch common fill soil layer. For a 25-year, 24-hour storm event, HELP model v3.07 was employed to (1) predict the peak maximum daily hydraulic head for the geomembrane layer, and (2) ensure that South Carolina Department of Health and Environmental Control (SCDHEC) requirements for the barrier layer (i.e., ≤ 12 inches hydraulic head on top of a barrier having a saturated hydraulic conductivity ≤ 1.0E-05 cm/s) will not be exceeded. A 25-year, 24-hour storm event at the Savannah River Site (SRS) is 6.1 inches rainfall (Weber 1998). HELP model v3.07 results based upon the new planned cap design suggest that the peak maximum daily hydraulic head on the geomembrane barrier layer will be 0.15 inches for a minimum slope equal to 3%, which is two orders of magnitude below the SCDHEC upper limit of 12 inches.

  3. Policy options for non-grain bioethanol in China: Insights from an economy-energy-environment CGE model

    Ge, Jianping; Lei, Yalin

    2017-01-01

    The Chinese government has been issuing numerous incentive policies to promote non-grain bioethanol development to address the problem of excessive energy consumption and environmental pollution. In this study, we divide the incentive policies into five categories: subsidies on bioethanol production, non-grain feedstocks planting, marginal land reclamation and utilization, bioethanol consumption in more cities, and consumption tax on gasoline use. The objective of the paper is to evaluate and compare the economic, energy, and environmental effects of the incentive policies to help the government choose the optimal policies to promote bioethanol in China. The results show that subsidies on bioethanol production and consumption can boost GDP, and simultaneously, decrease crude oil and gasoline consumption, and reduce CO_2 emissions. However, the increase in bioethanol consumption is combined with the rise in coal and electricity consumption. Subsidies on bioethanol production can promote GDP and reduce energy consumption and CO_2 emission but have less effect on bioethanol development than that under the scenario of subsides on bioethanol consumption. On the contrary, although subsidies on non-grain feedstocks planting and marginal land reclamation and utilization can improve macro-economy but have a negative effect on energy saving and CO_2 emission reduction. Therefore, appropriate subsidies on bioethanol production and consumption can promote bioethanol consumption with economic, energy and environmental benefits. The Chinese government should further pay more attention to the coordination of different policy options by policy tools and intensities. - Highlights: • Non-grain bioethanol incentive policy is divided into supply and demand perspectives. • China's bioethanol CGE model is constructed. • Demand incentives have largest positive effects on GDP. • Demand incentives have better effects on energy saving and emission reduction. • Subsidies on

  4. Comparison through a LCA evaluation analysis of food waste disposal options from the perspective of global warming and resource recovery

    Kim, Mi-Hyung; Kim, Jung-Wk

    2010-01-01

    This study evaluated feed manufacturing including dry feeding and wet feeding, composting, and landfilling for food waste disposal options from the perspective of global warming and resource recovery. The method of the expanded system boundaries was employed in order to compare different by-products. The whole stages of disposal involved in the systems such as separate discharge, collection, transportation, treatment, and final disposal, were included in the system boundary and evaluated. The Global Warming Potential generated from 1 tonne of food wastes for each disposal system was analyzed by the life cycle assessment method. The results showed that 200 kg of CO 2 -eq could be produced from dry feeding process, 61 kg of CO 2 -eq from wet feeding process, 123 kg of CO 2 -eq from composting process, and 1010 kg of CO 2 -eq from landfilling. Feed manufacturing and composting, the common treatment methods currently employed, have been known to be environment friendlier than other methods. However, this study shows that they can negatively affect the environment if their by-products are not appropriately utilized as intended.

  5. Comparison through a LCA evaluation analysis of food waste disposal options from the perspective of global warming and resource recovery

    Kim, Mi-Hyung, E-mail: mhkim9@snu.ac.kr [Department of Environmental Planning, Graduate School of Environmental Studies, Seoul National University, San 56-1, Sillim-Dong, Gwanak-Gu, Seoul 151-742 (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Jung-Wk, E-mail: kimjw@snu.ac.kr [Department of Environmental Planning, Graduate School of Environmental Studies, Seoul National University, San 56-1, Sillim-Dong, Gwanak-Gu, Seoul 151-742 (Korea, Republic of)

    2010-09-01

    This study evaluated feed manufacturing including dry feeding and wet feeding, composting, and landfilling for food waste disposal options from the perspective of global warming and resource recovery. The method of the expanded system boundaries was employed in order to compare different by-products. The whole stages of disposal involved in the systems such as separate discharge, collection, transportation, treatment, and final disposal, were included in the system boundary and evaluated. The Global Warming Potential generated from 1 tonne of food wastes for each disposal system was analyzed by the life cycle assessment method. The results showed that 200 kg of CO{sub 2}-eq could be produced from dry feeding process, 61 kg of CO{sub 2}-eq from wet feeding process, 123 kg of CO{sub 2}-eq from composting process, and 1010 kg of CO{sub 2}-eq from landfilling. Feed manufacturing and composting, the common treatment methods currently employed, have been known to be environment friendlier than other methods. However, this study shows that they can negatively affect the environment if their by-products are not appropriately utilized as intended.

  6. Modeling studies of water consumption for transportation fuel options: Hawaii, US-48

    King, C. W.; Webber, M. E.

    2011-12-01

    There are now major drivers to move from petroleum transportation: moving to low-carbon transport life cycles for climate change mitigation, fuel diversity to reduce reliance on imported oil, and economic concerns regarding the relatively high price of oil ( $100/barrel) and the resulting impact on discretionary income. Unfortunately many transportation fuel alternatives also have some environmental impacts, particularly with regard to water consumption and biodiversity. In this presentation we will discuss the water and energy sustainability struggle ongoing in Hawai'i on the island of Maui with a brief history and discussion of energy and water modeling scenarios. The vast majority of surface water on Maui is diverted via man-made ditches for irrigation on sugar cane plantations. Maui currently allocates between 250 and 300 million gallons per day (Mgal/d) of irrigation water for sugarcane cultivation each day, and it is likely that the island could support a biofuel-focused sugarcane plantation by shifting production focus from raw sugar to ethanol. However, future water availability is likely to be less than existing water availability because Maui is growing, more water is being reserved for environmental purposes, and precipitation levels are on decline for the past two decades and some expect this trend to continue. While Maui residents cannot control precipitation patterns, they can control the levels of increased requirements for instream flow in Maui's streams. The Hawaii State Commission on Water Resource Management (CWRM) sets instream flow standards, and choosing not to restore instream flow could have what many locals consider negative environmental and cultural impacts that must be weighed against the effects of reducing surface water availability for agriculture. Instream flow standards that reduce legal withdrawals for streams that supply irrigation water would reduce the amount of surface water available for biofuel crop irrigation. Environmental

  7. Performability Modelling Tools, Evaluation Techniques and Applications

    Haverkort, Boudewijn R.H.M.

    1990-01-01

    This thesis deals with three aspects of quantitative evaluation of fault-tolerant and distributed computer and communication systems: performability evaluation techniques, performability modelling tools, and performability modelling applications. Performability modelling is a relatively new

  8. 488-1D Ash basin closure cap help modeling-Microdrain® liner option

    Dyer, J. [Savannah River Site (SRS), Aiken, SC (United States). Savannah River National Lab. (SRNL)

    2017-09-06

    At the request of Area Completion Engineering and in support of the 488-1D Ash Basin closure, the Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) performed hydrologic simulations of the revised 488-1D Ash Basin closure cap design using the Hydrologic Evaluation of Landfill Performance (HELP) model. The revised design substitutes a MicroDrain Liner®—50-mil linear low-density polyethylene geomembrane structurally integrated with 130-mil drainage layer—for the previously planned drainage/barrier system—300-mil geosynthetic drainage layer (GDL), 300-mil geosynthetic clay liner (GCL), and 6-inch common fill soil layer. For a 25-year, 24-hour storm event, HELP model v3.07 was employed to (1) predict the peak maximum daily hydraulic head for the geomembrane layer, and (2) ensure that South Carolina Department of Health and Environmental Control (SCDHEC) requirements for the barrier layer (i.e., ≤ 12 inches hydraulic head on top of a barrier having a saturated hydraulic conductivity ≤ 1.0E-05 cm/s) will not be exceeded. A 25-year, 24-hour storm event at the Savannah River Site (SRS) is 6.1 inches rainfall (Weber 1998). HELP model v3.07 results based upon the new planned cap design suggest that the peak maximum daily hydraulic head on the geomembrane barrier layer will be 0.179 inches for a minimum slope equal to 3%, which is approximately two orders of magnitude below the SCDHEC upper limit of 12 inches.

  9. Evaluating Virtual Options

    James Allen Conover

    2007-06-01

    Full Text Available Com opções virtuais os ativos subjacentes são informação e as regras que governam o exercício são baseadas nas realidades do reino da informação (infosphere. As opções virtuais podem ser modeladas como opções para comprar alguma informação pagando o custo das operações da informação envolvida. As opções virtuais surgem em diversos estágios da criação do valor. O estágio inicial envolve a observação de fenômenos físicos, com acompanhamento da captação de dados. O refinamento seguinte deve organizar os dados, em bases de dados estruturadas. A informação é selecionada, a partir do armazenamento e sintetizada em um produto da informação (tal como um relatório, um artigo, ou desenho de especificações do produto a ser fabricado no mundo físico. O produto da informação é apresentado, então, ao usuário por meio de uma relação eficiente que não requeira que o usuário seja um perito do campo. As opções virtuais são similares em conceito às opções reais mas, substancialmente, diferentes em seus detalhes, porque as opções reais têm objetos físicos, enquanto os ativos subjacentes e as regras que governam o exercício são baseados nas realidades do mundo físico. Também, quando se exercita uma opção financeira mata-se, tipicamente, a opção, as opções virtuais podem incluir o exercício múltiplo. As opções virtuais podem envolver a volatilidade elevada ou saltar processos e, também, adicionar além, realçando seu valor. A aplicação da teoria de preço das opçãos às opções reais criou ferramentas de análise de valor para tomada de decisão disciplinada, e o potencial e, também, é grande para os instrumentos de apoio para análise de valor de decisão baseada em opções virtuais. Este artigo trata diversas aplicações reais e importantes análises de opções no mundo da informação, incluindo modelos de processo do jump e os modelos para avaliar opções e sintetizar alguns itens n da informação em m resultados físicos de produtos .

  10. EVALUATION OF POLLUTION PREVENTION OPTIONS TO REDUCE STYRENE EMISSIONS FROM FIBER-REINFORCED PLASTIC OPEN MOLDING PROCESSES

    Pollution prevention (P2) options to reduce styrene emissions, such as new materials, and application equipment, are commercially available to the operators of open molding processes. However, information is lacking on the emissions reduction that these options can achieve. To me...

  11. A CAD-CAM prosthodontic option and gingival zenith position for a rotated maxillary right central incisor: An evaluation

    Mukesh Singhal

    2012-01-01

    Conclusion: Digital imaging provides an immediate treatment option for the patients. Software also provides an interim aid, for the clinician as well as technician, in the form of two-dimensional photographs. CAD-CAM is entirely a helping instrument against the conservative prosthetic options and gingival zenith position for a rotated central incisor. It helps in patient education and in motivation.

  12. Estimating spillover benefits of large R and D projects: Application of real options modelling approach to the case of thermonuclear fusion R and D programme

    Bednyagin, Denis; Gnansounou, Edgard

    2012-01-01

    This paper is focused on the analysis of spillover benefits of the ongoing R and D programme on thermonuclear fusion technology. The spillover effects are understood here as positive externalities of publicly funded R and D, demonstration and deployment (RDDD) activities that may be revealed at the companies' level in the form of newly created knowledge stock; development of innovative products/processes with broader market applications; strengthening of R and D, manufacturing and marketing capabilities; etc. An integrated compound real options model is proposed that allows to estimate the strategic net social present value of fusion RDDD programme taking into account the different types of spillover benefits along with the hidden real options value arising due to uncertainty and managerial flexibility. It was found that the value of spillover effects, modelled as “expansion option”, could represent a significant proportion of the overall socio-economic value of fusion RDDD programme (nearly 20%). This paper clearly demonstrates that, besides a high-level mission to assure sustainable energy supply, fusion RDDD programme may yield substantial net socio-economic benefits that may be at least two times higher compared to the expected RD and D costs, and hence the pursuit of even more ambitious programme is economically justified. - Highlights: ► Evaluate the strategic net social present value of fusion RDDD programme. ► Consider different types of spillover effects. ► Economic value of spillovers is estimated with a compound real options model. ► Spillover benefits could represent up to 20% of the value of fusion RDDD programme.

  13. "An Asymptotic Expansion Approach to Currency Options with a Market Model of Interest Rates under Stochastic Volatility Processes of Spot Exchange Rates"

    Akihiko Takahashi; Kohta Takehara

    2007-01-01

    This paper proposes an asymptotic expansion scheme of currency options with a libor market model of interest rates and stochastic volatility models of spot exchange rates. In particular, we derive closed-form approximation formulas for the density functions of the underlying assets and for pricing currency options based on the third order asymptotic expansion scheme; we do not model a foreign exchange rate's variance such as in Heston[1993], but its volatility that follows a general time-inho...

  14. Evaluation Model for Sentient Cities

    Mª Florencia Fergnani Brion

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available In this article we made a research about the Sentient Cities and produced an assessment model to analyse if a city is or could be potentially considered one. It can be used to evaluate the current situation of a city before introducing urban policies based on citizen participation in hybrid environments (physical and digital. To that effect, we've developed evaluation grids with the main elements that form a Sentient City and their measurement values. The Sentient City is a variation of the Smart City, also based on technology progress and innovation, but where the citizens are the principal agent. In this model, governments aim to have a participatory and sustainable system for achieving the Knowledge Society and Collective Intelligence development, as well as the city’s efficiency. Also, they increase communication channels between the Administration and citizens. In this new context, citizens are empowered because they have the opportunity to create a Local Identity and transform their surroundings through open and horizontal initiatives.

  15. The American Foreign Exchange Option in Time-Dependent One-Dimensional Diffusion Model for Exchange Rate

    Rehman, Nasir; Shashiashvili, Malkhaz

    2009-01-01

    The classical Garman-Kohlhagen model for the currency exchange assumes that the domestic and foreign currency risk-free interest rates are constant and the exchange rate follows a log-normal diffusion process.In this paper we consider the general case, when exchange rate evolves according to arbitrary one-dimensional diffusion process with local volatility that is the function of time and the current exchange rate and where the domestic and foreign currency risk-free interest rates may be arbitrary continuous functions of time. First non-trivial problem we encounter in time-dependent case is the continuity in time argument of the value function of the American put option and the regularity properties of the optimal exercise boundary. We establish these properties based on systematic use of the monotonicity in volatility for the value functions of the American as well as European options with convex payoffs together with the Dynamic Programming Principle and we obtain certain type of comparison result for the value functions and corresponding exercise boundaries for the American puts with different strikes, maturities and volatilities.Starting from the latter fact that the optimal exercise boundary curve is left continuous with right-hand limits we give a mathematically rigorous and transparent derivation of the significant early exercise premium representation for the value function of the American foreign exchange put option as the sum of the European put option value function and the early exercise premium.The proof essentially relies on the particular property of the stochastic integral with respect to arbitrary continuous semimartingale over the predictable subsets of its zeros. We derive from the latter the nonlinear integral equation for the optimal exercise boundary which can be studied by numerical methods

  16. The Spiral-Interactive Program Evaluation Model.

    Khaleel, Ibrahim Adamu

    1988-01-01

    Describes the spiral interactive program evaluation model, which is designed to evaluate vocational-technical education programs in secondary schools in Nigeria. Program evaluation is defined; utility oriented and process oriented models for evaluation are described; and internal and external evaluative factors and variables that define each…

  17. Budget Options

    2000-01-01

    This volume-part of the Congressional Budget Office's (CBO's) annual report to the House and Senate Committees on the Budget-is intended to help inform policymakers about options for the federal budget...

  18. EMPIRICAL TESTING OF MODIFIED BLACK-SCHOLES OPTION PRICING MODEL FORMULA ON NSE DERIVATIVE MARKET IN INDIA

    Ambrish Gupta

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The main objectives of this paper are to incorporate modification in Black-Scholes option pricing model formula by adding some new variables on the basis of given assumption related to risk-free interest rate, and also shows the calculation process of new risk-free interest rate on the basis of modified variable. This paper also identifies the various situations in empirical testing of modified and original Black-Scholes formula with respect to the market value on the basis of assumed and calculated risk-free interest rate.

  19. Evaluating water policy options in agriculture: a whole-farm study for the broye river basin (switzerland)†

    Lehmann, N.; Finger, R.

    2013-01-01

    In this study, we evaluate the impact of an increased volumetric water price and the implementation of a water quota on management decisions, income, income risk and utility of an arable farmer in the Broye River Basin, western Switzerland. We develop a bio-economic whole-farm model, which couples

  20. Prevention of mother-to-child transmission of HIV Option B+ cascade in rural Tanzania: The One Stop Clinic model.

    Anna Gamell

    Full Text Available Strategies to improve the uptake of Prevention of Mother-To-Child Transmission of HIV (PMTCT are needed. We integrated HIV and maternal, newborn and child health services in a One Stop Clinic to improve the PMTCT cascade in a rural Tanzanian setting.The One Stop Clinic of Ifakara offers integral care to HIV-infected pregnant women and their families at one single place and time. All pregnant women and HIV-exposed infants attended during the first year of Option B+ implementation (04/2014-03/2015 were included. PMTCT was assessed at the antenatal clinic (ANC, HIV care and labour ward, and compared with the pre-B+ period. We also characterised HIV-infected pregnant women and evaluated the MTCT rate.1,579 women attended the ANC. Seven (0.4% were known to be HIV-infected. Of the remainder, 98.5% (1,548/1,572 were offered an HIV test, 94% (1,456/1,548 accepted and 38 (2.6% tested HIV-positive. 51 were re-screened for HIV during late pregnancy and one had seroconverted. The HIV prevalence at the ANC was 3.1% (46/1,463. Of the 39 newly diagnosed women, 35 (90% were linked to care. HIV test was offered to >98% of ANC clients during both the pre- and post-B+ periods. During the post-B+ period, test acceptance (94% versus 90.5%, p<0.0001 and linkage to care (90% versus 26%, p<0.0001 increased. Ten additional women diagnosed outside the ANC were linked to care. 82% (37/45 of these newly-enrolled women started antiretroviral treatment (ART. After a median time of 17 months, 27% (12/45 were lost to follow-up. 79 women under HIV care became pregnant and all received ART. After a median follow-up time of 19 months, 6% (5/79 had been lost. 5,727 women delivered at the hospital, 20% (1,155/5,727 had unknown HIV serostatus. Of these, 30% (345/1,155 were tested for HIV, and 18/345 (5.2% were HIV-positive. Compared to the pre-B+ period more women were tested during labour (30% versus 2.4%, p<0.0001. During the study, the MTCT rate was 2.2%.The implementation of

  1. Options theory and strategic investment decisions

    Mann, D.; Goobie, G.; MacMillan, L.

    1992-01-01

    The possible use of options pricing theory for evaluating long-term capital investments is discussed. Using the Black and Scholes option pricing model, five variables were evaluated for a hypothetical oil sands project. These variables are: stock price as determined by the earning power of the company; exercise price which equals the investment cost of the project; price standard deviation which is assumed to be 50%; the length of time for which the company will maintain its option to invest in the project, and finally the risk free rate which is approximately equal to the yield in long term government securities. A sensitivity analysis on these variables can provide management with information on how best to influence the option value. A more in-depth analysis could provide valuable information about strategic choice for large projects. 5 refs., 3 figs

  2. Guidance on a harmonised framework for pest risk assessment and the identification and evaluation of pest risk management options by EFSA

    Baker, R.; Candresse, T.; Dormannsné Simon, E.

    2010-01-01

    The Scientific Panel on Plant Health was requested by EFSA to develop a guidance document on a harmonised framework for risk assessment of organisms harmful to plants and plant products and the identification and evaluation of risk management options. The document provides guiding principles on a...

  3. Sheep Model for Uterine Transplantation: The Best Option Before Starting a Human Program

    Wellington Andraus

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: This study reports the first four cases of a uterine transplant procedure conducted in sheep in Latin America. The aim of this study was to evaluate the success of uterine transplantation in sheep. METHOD: The study was conducted at Laboratory of Medical Investigation 37 (LIM 37 at the University of São Paulo School of Medicine. Four healthy mature ewes weighing 40-60 kg were used as both the donor and recipient for a transplant within the same animal (auto-transplant. Institutional guidelines for the care of experimental animals were followed. RESULTS: The first two cases of auto-transplant were performed to standardize the technique. After complete uterine mobilization and isolation of the blood supply, the unilateral vascular pedicle was sectioned and anastomosed on the external iliac vessels. After standardization, the protocol was implemented. Procurement surgery was performed without complications or bleeding. After isolation of uterine arteries and veins as well as full mobilization of the uterus, ligation of the distal portion of the internal iliac vessels was performed with subsequent division and end-to-side anastomosis of the external iliac vessels. After vaginal anastomosis, the final case presented with arterial thrombosis in the left uterine artery. The left uterine artery anastomosis was re-opened and flushed with saline solution to remove the clot from the artery lumen. Anastomosis was repeated with restoration of blood flow for a few minutes before another uterine artery thrombosis appeared on the same side. All four animals were alive after the surgical procedure and were euthanized after the experimental period. CONCLUSION: We describe the success of four uterine auto-transplants in sheep models.

  4. The origins of options.

    Smaldino, Paul E; Richerson, Peter J

    2012-01-01

    Most research on decision making has focused on how human or animal decision makers choose between two or more options, posed in advance by the researchers. The mechanisms by which options are generated for most decisions, however, are not well understood. Models of sequential search have examined the trade-off between continued exploration and choosing one's current best option, but still cannot explain the processes by which new options are generated. We argue that understanding the origins of options is a crucial but untapped area for decision making research. We explore a number of factors which influence the generation of options, which fall broadly into two categories: psycho-biological and socio-cultural. The former category includes factors such as perceptual biases and associative memory networks. The latter category relies on the incredible human capacity for culture and social learning, which doubtless shape not only our choices but the options available for choice. Our intention is to start a discussion that brings us closer toward understanding the origins of options.

  5. Exploring Modeling Options and Conversion of Average Response to Appropriate Vibration Envelopes for a Typical Cylindrical Vehicle Panel with Rib-stiffened Design

    Harrison, Phil; LaVerde, Bruce; Teague, David

    2009-01-01

    Although applications for Statistical Energy Analysis (SEA) techniques are more widely used in the aerospace industry today, opportunities to anchor the response predictions using measured data from a flight-like launch vehicle structure are still quite valuable. Response and excitation data from a ground acoustic test at the Marshall Space Flight Center permitted the authors to compare and evaluate several modeling techniques available in the SEA module of the commercial code VA One. This paper provides an example of vibration response estimates developed using different modeling approaches to both approximate and bound the response of a flight-like vehicle panel. Since both vibration response and acoustic levels near the panel were available from the ground test, the evaluation provided an opportunity to learn how well the different modeling options can match band-averaged spectra developed from the test data. Additional work was performed to understand the spatial averaging of the measurements across the panel from measured data. Finally an evaluation/comparison of two conversion approaches from the statistical average response results that are output from an SEA analysis to a more useful envelope of response spectra appropriate to specify design and test vibration levels for a new vehicle.

  6. Evaluation of Models of the Reading Process.

    Balajthy, Ernest

    A variety of reading process models have been proposed and evaluated in reading research. Traditional approaches to model evaluation specify the workings of a system in a simplified fashion to enable organized, systematic study of the system's components. Following are several statistical methods of model evaluation: (1) empirical research on…

  7. Particulate monitoring, modeling, and management: natural sources, long-range transport, and emission control options: a case study of Cyprus

    Kleanthous, Savvas; Savvides, Chrysanthos; Christofides, Ioannis; Hadjimitsis, Diofantos G.; Themistocleous, Kyriacos; Achilleos, Constantia; Akylas, Evangelos; Demetriadou, Chrystalla; Christodoulides, Pavlos; Douros, Ioannis; Moussiopoulos, Nicolas; Panayiotou, Charalambos; Gregoris, Charalambous; Fedra, Kurt; Kubat, Milan; Mihalopoulos, Nicolaos

    2013-08-01

    The LIFE+ Project PM3: Particulate Monitoring, Modeling, Management is coordinated by the Department of Labour Inspection in Cyprus and funded in part by LIFE+ Environment Policy & Governance. The project aims at the analysis of dust emissions, transport, and control options for Cyprus, as well as at the identification of "natural" contributions (Directive 2008/50/EC). The ultimate objective is to provide inputs for the design of a dust management plan to improve compliance to EC Directives and minimise impacts to human health and environment. This paper presents a short analysis of historical monitoring data and their patterns as well as a description of a dynamic dust entrainment model. The pyrogenic PM10 emissions combined with the wind driven emissions, are subject to a two phase non-linear multi-criteria emission control optimization procedure. The resulting emission scenarios with an hourly resolution provide input to the Comprehensive Air quality Model with extensions (CAMx) 3D fate and transport model, implemented for the 4,800 km master domain and embedded subdomains (270 km around the island of Cyprus and embedded smaller city domains of up to 30 km down to street canyon modeling). The models test the feasibility of candidate emission control solutions over a range of weather conditions. Model generated patterns of local emissions and long-range transport are discussed compared with the monitoring data, remote sensing (MODIS derived AOT), and the chemical analysis of dust samples.

  8. Early Option Exercise

    Heje Pedersen, Lasse; Jensen, Mads Vestergaard

    A classic result by Merton (1973) is that, except just before expiration or dividend payments, one should never exercise a call option and never convert a convertible bond. We show theoretically that this result is overturned when investors face frictions. Early option exercise can be optimal when...... it reduces short-sale costs, transaction costs, or funding costs. We provide consistent empirical evidence, documenting billions of dollars of early exercise for options and convertible bonds using unique data on actual exercise decisions and frictions. Our model can explain as much as 98% of early exercises...

  9. Early Option Exercise

    Jensen, Mads Vestergaard; Heje Pedersen, Lasse

    2016-01-01

    A classic result by Merton (1973) is that, except just before expiration or dividend payments, one should never exercise a call option and never convert a convertible bond. We show theoretically that this result is overturned when investors face frictions. Early option exercise can be optimal when...... it reduces short-sale costs, transaction costs, or funding costs. We provide consistent empirical evidence, documenting billions of dollars of early exercise for options and convertible bonds using unique data on actual exercise decisions and frictions. Our model can explain as much as 98% of early exercises...

  10. Index Option Pricing Models with Stochastic Volatility and Stochastic Interest Rates

    Jiang, G.J.; van der Sluis, P.J.

    2000-01-01

    This paper specifies a multivariate stochastic volatility (SV) model for the S&P500 index and spot interest rate processes. We first estimate the multivariate SV model via the efficient method of moments (EMM) technique based on observations of underlying state variables, and then investigate the

  11. Obesity trend in the United States and economic intervention options to change it: A simulation study linking ecological epidemiology and system dynamics modeling.

    Chen, H-J; Xue, H; Liu, S; Huang, T T K; Wang, Y C; Wang, Y

    2018-05-29

    To study the country-level dynamics and influences between population weight status and socio-economic distribution (employment status and family income) in the US and to project the potential impacts of socio-economic-based intervention options on obesity prevalence. Ecological study and simulation. Using the longitudinal data from the 2001-2011 Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (N = 88,453 adults), we built and calibrated a system dynamics model (SDM) capturing the feedback loops between body weight status and socio-economic status distribution and simulated the effects of employment- and income-based intervention options. The SDM-based simulation projected rising overweight/obesity prevalence in the US in the future. Improving people's income from lower to middle-income group would help control the rising prevalence, while only creating jobs for the unemployed did not show such effect. Improving people from low- to middle-income levels may be effective, instead of solely improving reemployment rate, in curbing the rising obesity trend in the US adult population. This study indicates the value of the SDM as a virtual laboratory to evaluate complex distributive phenomena of the interplay between population health and economy. Copyright © 2018 The Royal Society for Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Model Performance Evaluation and Scenario Analysis (MPESA)

    Model Performance Evaluation and Scenario Analysis (MPESA) assesses the performance with which models predict time series data. The tool was developed Hydrological Simulation Program-Fortran (HSPF) and the Stormwater Management Model (SWMM)

  13. An assessment of the potentials of nuclear power and carbon capture and storage in the long-term global warming mitigation options based on Asian Modeling Exercise scenarios

    Mori, Shunsuke

    2012-01-01

    This paper presents an evaluation of global warming mitigation options based on scenarios from the Asian Modeling Exercise. Using an extended version of the integrated assessment model MARIA-23 (Multiregional Approach for Resource and Industry Allocation), we analyze nuclear fuel recycling options, carbon capture and storage technologies (CCS), and biomass utilization. To assess the potential implications of decreased social acceptance of nuclear power in the wake of the Fukushima nuclear accident, additional scenarios including a nuclear power expansion limitation, are analyzed. We also evaluate MARIA-23 model simulation estimates of long-term contributions and interrelationships among nuclear power, biomass, and CCS. Finally, potential costs of nuclear limitation under carbon control policies are assessed. The simulation results in this paper suggest the following: (1) under the reference scenario, global GDP losses in climate limitation scenarios range from 1.3% per year to 3.9% per year in 2060, rising to between 3.5% per year and 4.5% per year in 2100; (2) the use of nuclear fuel reprocessing technologies increase rapidly in all carbon control policy scenarios; (3) under a scenario where the price of CO 2 is $30 and nuclear power expansion is strictly limited, GDP losses increase significantly—from 4.5% per year to 6.4% per year by 2100; (4) nuclear power and CCS are substitute mitigation technologies. With nuclear power technology available CCS deployment reaches approximately 15,000 Mt-CO 2 per year by 2010; without a nuclear power option, CCS deployment rises to more than 80,000 Mt-CO 2 per year; and (5) biomass utilization cannot fully compensate for limitations to nuclear power expansion in policy scenarios. In addition to examining the role of these three technologies on global scales, we report results for several major Asian regions, namely Japan, China, and India. China tends to deploy nuclear power (if available) in response to rapidly growing

  14. Evaluating options for balancing the water–electricity nexus in California: Part 2—Greenhouse gas and renewable energy utilization impacts

    Tarroja, Brian; AghaKouchak, Amir; Sobhani, Reza; Feldman, David; Jiang, Sunny; Samuelsen, Scott, E-mail: gss@uci.edu

    2014-11-01

    A study was conducted to compare the technical potential and effectiveness of different water supply options for securing water availability in a large-scale, interconnected water supply system under historical and climate-change augmented inflow and demand conditions. Part 2 of the study focused on determining the greenhouse gas and renewable energy utilization impacts of different pathways to stabilize major surface reservoir levels. Using a detailed electric grid model and taking into account impacts on the operation of the water supply infrastructure, the greenhouse gas emissions and effect on overall grid renewable penetration level was calculated for each water supply option portfolio that successfully secured water availability from Part 1. The effects on the energy signature of water supply infrastructure were found to be just as important as that of the fundamental processes for each option. Under historical (baseline) conditions, many option portfolios were capable of securing surface reservoir levels with a net neutral or negative effect on emissions and a benefit for renewable energy utilization. Under climate change augmented conditions, however, careful selection of the water supply option portfolio was required to prevent imposing major emissions increases for the system. Overall, this analysis provided quantitative insight into the tradeoffs associated with choosing different pathways for securing California's water supply. - Highlights: • Part I presents a spatially and temporally resolved model of California’s surface reservoirs. • Part II presents GHG emissions and grid renewable penetration for water availability options. • In particular, the energy signature of water supply infrastructure is delineated. • Different pathways for securing California’s water supply are developed quantitatively. • Under baseline conditions, portfolios capable of securing surface reservoir levels emerge. • Under climate change conditions, the

  15. Evaluating options for balancing the water–electricity nexus in California: Part 2—Greenhouse gas and renewable energy utilization impacts

    Tarroja, Brian; AghaKouchak, Amir; Sobhani, Reza; Feldman, David; Jiang, Sunny; Samuelsen, Scott

    2014-01-01

    A study was conducted to compare the technical potential and effectiveness of different water supply options for securing water availability in a large-scale, interconnected water supply system under historical and climate-change augmented inflow and demand conditions. Part 2 of the study focused on determining the greenhouse gas and renewable energy utilization impacts of different pathways to stabilize major surface reservoir levels. Using a detailed electric grid model and taking into account impacts on the operation of the water supply infrastructure, the greenhouse gas emissions and effect on overall grid renewable penetration level was calculated for each water supply option portfolio that successfully secured water availability from Part 1. The effects on the energy signature of water supply infrastructure were found to be just as important as that of the fundamental processes for each option. Under historical (baseline) conditions, many option portfolios were capable of securing surface reservoir levels with a net neutral or negative effect on emissions and a benefit for renewable energy utilization. Under climate change augmented conditions, however, careful selection of the water supply option portfolio was required to prevent imposing major emissions increases for the system. Overall, this analysis provided quantitative insight into the tradeoffs associated with choosing different pathways for securing California's water supply. - Highlights: • Part I presents a spatially and temporally resolved model of California’s surface reservoirs. • Part II presents GHG emissions and grid renewable penetration for water availability options. • In particular, the energy signature of water supply infrastructure is delineated. • Different pathways for securing California’s water supply are developed quantitatively. • Under baseline conditions, portfolios capable of securing surface reservoir levels emerge. • Under climate change conditions, the

  16. Using an Integrated Participatory Modeling Approach to Assess Water Management Options and Support Community Conversations on Maui

    Rushil S. Mistry

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this study is to provide an integrated analysis of water distribution on Maui and the cross-sectoral impacts of policies and regulations aimed at rejuvenating and sustaining the deep-rooted culture on the island. Since the water diversion system was implemented in 1876 on the island of Maui, there has been contention among local interest groups over the right way to manage and allocate this precious resource. There is also concern over the availability of the precious resource in the long term, as the demand for water is expected to exceed the potential supply of water on Maui by 2020. This paper analyzes various long run scenarios of policy options presently being discussed on Maui. By collaborating with local experts, business leaders, and community members, to develop a tool that facilitates policy formulation and evaluation, informed decisions can then be made by the local community to ensure sustainable development.

  17. Evaluation of options for energy recovery from municipal solid waste in India using the hierarchical analytical network process

    Nixon, J.D.; Dey, P.K.; Ghosh, S.K.; Davies, P.A.

    2013-01-01

    In this paper a Hierarchical Analytical Network Process (HANP) model is demonstrated for evaluating alternative technologies for generating electricity from MSW in India. The technological alternatives and evaluation criteria for the HANP study are characterised by reviewing the literature and consulting experts in the field of waste management. Technologies reviewed in the context of India include landfill, anaerobic digestion, incineration, pelletisation and gasification. To investigate the sensitivity of the result, we examine variations in expert opinions and carry out an Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) analysis for comparison. We find that anaerobic digestion is the preferred technology for generating electricity from MSW in India. Gasification is indicated as the preferred technology in an AHP model due to the exclusion of criteria dependencies and in an HANP analysis when placing a high priority on net output and retention time. We conclude that HANP successfully provides a structured framework for recommending which technologies to pursue in India, and the adoption of such tools is critical at a time when key investments in infrastructure are being made. Therefore the presented methodology is thought to have a wider potential for investors, policy makers, researchers and plant developers in India and elsewhere. - Highlights: • We evaluate alternative technologies for generating electricity from waste. • The methodology we develop is based on the analytical network process. • Assessment is made against technical, financial, environmental and risk criteria. • Anaerobic digestion and gasification are the preferred technologies for India. • The method reduces risk and ensures sustainability in energy project planning

  18. 2005 resource options report

    Morris, T.

    2005-01-01

    This resource options report (ROR) fulfils regulatory requirements in British Columbia's two-year resource planning process. It identifies a wide range of resources and technologies that could be used to meet BC Hydro's future electricity demand. As such, it facilitates a transparent public review of resource options which include both supply-side and demand-side options. The resource options that will be used in the 2005 integrated electricity plan (IEP) were characterized. This ROR also documents where there is a general agreement or disagreement on the resource type characterization, based on the First Nations and Stakeholder engagement. BC Hydro used current information to provide realistic ranges on volume and cost to characterize environmental and social attributes. The BC Hydro system was modelled to assess the benefit and cost of various resource options. The information resulting from this ROR and IEP will help in making decisions on how to structure competitive acquisition calls and to determine the level of transmission services needed to advance certain BC Hydro projects. The IEP forecasts the nature and quantity of domestic resources required over the next 20 years. A strategic direction on how those needs will be met has been created to guide the management of BC Hydro's energy resources. Supply-side options include near-commercial technologies such as energy storage, ocean waves, tidal, fuel cells and integrated coal gasification combined cycle technology. Supply-side options also include natural gas, coal, biomass, geothermal, wind, and hydro. 120 refs., 39 tabs., 21 figs., 6 appendices

  19. Assessment of coastal management options by means of multilayered ecosystem models

    Nobre, Ana M.; Ferreira, João G.; Nunes, João P.; Yan, Xiaojun; Bricker, Suzanne; Corner, Richard; Groom, Steve; Gu, Haifeng; Hawkins, Anthony J. S.; Hutson, Rory; Lan, Dongzhao; Silva, João D. Lencart e.; Pascoe, Philip; Telfer, Trevor; Zhang, Xuelei; Zhu, Mingyuan

    2010-03-01

    This paper presents a multilayered ecosystem modelling approach that combines the simulation of the biogeochemistry of a coastal ecosystem with the simulation of the main forcing functions, such as catchment loading and aquaculture activities. This approach was developed as a tool for sustainable management of coastal ecosystems. A key feature is to simulate management scenarios that account for changes in multiple uses and enable assessment of cumulative impacts of coastal activities. The model was applied to a coastal zone in China with large aquaculture production and multiple catchment uses, and where management efforts to improve water quality are under way. Development scenarios designed in conjunction with local managers and aquaculture producers include the reduction of fish cages and treatment of wastewater. Despite the reduction in nutrient loading simulated in three different scenarios, inorganic nutrient concentrations in the bay were predicted to exceed the thresholds for poor quality defined by Chinese seawater quality legislation. For all scenarios there is still a Moderate High to High nutrient loading from the catchment, so further reductions might be enacted, together with additional decreases in fish cage culture. The model predicts that overall, shellfish production decreases by 10%-28% using any of these development scenarios, principally because shellfish growth is being sustained by the substances to be reduced for improvement of water quality. The model outcomes indicate that this may be counteracted by zoning of shellfish aquaculture at the ecosystem level in order to optimize trade-offs between productivity and environmental effects. The present case study exemplifies the value of multilayered ecosystem modelling as a tool for Integrated Coastal Zone Management and for the adoption of ecosystem approaches for marine resource management. This modelling approach can be applied worldwide, and may be particularly useful for the application of

  20. An Analytically Tractable Model for Pricing Multiasset Options with Correlated Jump-Diffusion Equity Processes and a Two-Factor Stochastic Yield Curve

    Tristan Guillaume

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper shows how to value multiasset options analytically in a modeling framework that combines both continuous and discontinuous variations in the underlying equity or foreign exchange processes and a stochastic, two-factor yield curve. All correlations are taken into account, between the factors driving the yield curve, between fixed income and equity as asset classes, and between the individual equity assets themselves. The valuation method is applied to three of the most popular two-asset options.

  1. Freshwater Ecosystem Services in Mining Regions: Modelling Options for Policy Development Support

    Daniel Mercado-Garcia

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available The ecosystem services (ES approach offers an integrated perspective of social-ecological systems, suitable for holistic assessments of mining impacts. Yet for ES models to be policy-relevant, methodological consensus in mining contexts is needed. We review articles assessing ES in mining areas focusing on freshwater components and policy support potential. Twenty-six articles were analysed concerning (i methodological complexity (data types, number of parameters, processes and ecosystem–human integration level and (ii potential applicability for policy development (communication of uncertainties, scenario simulation, stakeholder participation and management recommendations. Articles illustrate mining impacts on ES through valuation exercises mostly. However, the lack of ground- and surface-water measurements, as well as insufficient representation of the connectivity among soil, water and humans, leave room for improvements. Inclusion of mining-specific environmental stressors models, increasing resolution of topographies, determination of baseline ES patterns and inclusion of multi-stakeholder perspectives are advantageous for policy support. We argue that achieving more holistic assessments exhorts practitioners to aim for high social-ecological connectivity using mechanistic models where possible and using inductive methods only where necessary. Due to data constraints, cause–effect networks might be the most feasible and best solution. Thus, a policy-oriented framework is proposed, in which data science is directed to environmental modelling for analysis of mining impacts on water ES.

  2. Assessing options to increase water productivity in irrigated river basins using remote sensing and modelling tools

    Dam, van J.C.; Singh, R.; Bessembinder, J.J.E.; Leffelaar, P.A.; Bastiaanssen, W.G.M.; Jhorar, R.K.; Kroes, J.G.; Droogers, P.

    2006-01-01

    In regions where water is more scarce than land, the water productivity concept (e.g. crop yield per unit of water utilized) provides a useful framework to analyse crop production increase or water savings in irrigated agriculture. Generic crop and soil models were applied at field and regional

  3. Ecology and equity in global fisheries: Modelling policy options using theoretical distributions

    Rammelt, C.F.; van Schie, Maarten

    2016-01-01

    Global fisheries present a typical case of political ecology or environmental injustice, i.e. a problem of distribution of resources within ecological limits. We built a stock-flow model to visualize this challenge and its dynamics, with both an ecological and a social dimension. We incorporated

  4. A Mathematical Model that Simulates Control Options for African Swine Fever Virus (ASFV.

    Mike B Barongo

    Full Text Available A stochastic model designed to simulate transmission dynamics of African swine fever virus (ASFV in a free-ranging pig population under various intervention scenarios is presented. The model was used to assess the relative impact of the timing of the implementation of different control strategies on disease-related mortality. The implementation of biosecurity measures was simulated through incorporation of a decay function on the transmission rate. The model predicts that biosecurity measures implemented within 14 days of the onset of an epidemic can avert up to 74% of pig deaths due to ASF while hypothetical vaccines that confer 70% immunity when deployed prior to day 14 of the epidemic could avert 65% of pig deaths. When the two control measures are combined, the model predicts that 91% of the pigs that would have otherwise succumbed to the disease if no intervention was implemented would be saved. However, if the combined interventions are delayed (defined as implementation from > 60 days only 30% of ASF-related deaths would be averted. In the absence of vaccines against ASF, we recommend early implementation of enhanced biosecurity measures. Active surveillance and use of pen-side diagnostic assays, preferably linked to rapid dissemination of this data to veterinary authorities through mobile phone technology platforms are essential for rapid detection and confirmation of ASF outbreaks. This prediction, although it may seem intuitive, rationally confirms the importance of early intervention in managing ASF epidemics. The modelling approach is particularly valuable in that it determines an optimal timing for implementation of interventions in controlling ASF outbreaks.

  5. Environmental assessment of different management options for individual waste fractions by means of life-cycle assessment modelling

    Manfredi, Simone; Tonini, Davide; Christensen, Thomas Højlund

    2011-01-01

    and environmental factors involved, including energy generation from landfill gas and storage of biogenic carbon. Leachate and gas emissions associated to each individual waste fraction have been estimated by means of a mathematical modelling. This approach towards landfilling emissions allows for a more precise...... quantification of the landfill impacts when comparing management options for selected waste fractions.Results from the life-cycle impact assessment (LCIA) show that the environmental performance estimated for landfilling with energy recovery of the fractions “organics” and “recyclable paper” is comparable...... with composting (for “organics”) and incineration (for “recyclable paper”). This however requires high degree of control over gas and leachate emissions, high gas collection efficiency and extensive gas utilization at the landfill. For the other waste fractions, recycling and incineration are favourable, although...

  6. A real option-based model to valuate CDM projects under uncertain energy policies for emission trading

    Park, Taeil; Kim, Changyoon; Kim, Hyoungkwan

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • A real option-based model for the valuation of CDM projects is proposed. • This study investigates the impact of energy policies on the value of CDM projects. • Level of target emission and its schedule should be carefully designed. • Government subsidy facilitates the implementation of CDM projects. • Period for free emission allowance prevents promoting CDM projects. - Abstract: Emission trading has been considered a primary policy tool for emission reduction. Governments establish national targets for emission reduction and assign emission reduction goals to private entities to accomplish the targets. To attain the goal, private entities should perform offset projects that can produce emission credits or buy emission credits from the market. However, it is not easy for private entities to decide to implement the projects because energy policies associated with emission trading keep changing; thus, the future benefits of the offset projects are quite uncertain. This study presents a real option-based model to investigate how uncertain energy policies affect the financial viability of an offset project. A case study showed that the establishment of a target emission was attractive to the government because it could make the CDM project financially viable with a small amount of government subsidy. In addition, the level of the government subsidy could determine the investment timing for the CDM project. In this context, governments should be cautious in designing energy policies, because even the same energy policies could have different impacts on private entities. Overall, this study is expected to assist private entities in establishing proper investment strategies for CDM projects under uncertain energy policies

  7. Process Options Description for Vitrification Flowsheet Model of INEEL Sodium Bearing Waste

    Nichols, Todd Travis; Taylor, Dean Dalton; Lauerhass, Lance; Barnes, Charles Marshall

    2001-02-01

    The purpose of this document is to provide the technical information to Savannah River Site (SRS) personnel that is required for the development of a basic steady-state process simulation of the vitrification treatment train of sodium bearing waste (SBW) at Idaho National Engineering and nvironmental Laboratory (INEEL). INEEL considers simulation to have an important role in the integration/optimization of treatment process trains for the High Level Waste (HLW) Program. This project involves a joint Technical Task Plan (TTP ID77WT31, Subtask C) between SRS and INEEL. The work scope of simulation is different at the two sites. This document addresses only the treatment of SBW at INEEL. The simulation model(s) is to be built by SRS for INEEL in FY-2001.

  8. 2018 Military Retirement Options: An Expected Net Present Value Decision Analysis Model

    2017-03-23

    and the Operational Research Commons This Thesis is brought to you for free and open access by AFIT Scholar. It has been accepted for inclusion in...and build a representation of the model using Microsoft Excel 2016, Visual Basics for Applications ( VBA ), and Excel’s Data Analysis Toolkit. The...stream of future income. However, these DOD TSP contributions are not readily accessible to the member until they reach age 59.5 due to IRS

  9. Thermal control of high energy nuclear waste, space option. [mathematical models

    Peoples, J. A.

    1979-01-01

    Problems related to the temperature and packaging of nuclear waste material for disposal in space are explored. An approach is suggested for solving both problems with emphasis on high energy density waste material. A passive cooling concept is presented which utilized conduction rods that penetrate the inner core. Data are presented to illustrate the effectiveness of the rods and the limit of their capability. A computerized thermal model is discussed and developed for the cooling concept.

  10. User's manual for DWNWND: an interactive Gaussian plume atmospheric transport model with eight dispersion parameter options

    Fields, D.E.; Miller, C.W.

    1980-05-01

    The most commonly used approach for estimating the atmospheric concentration and deposition of material downwind from its point of release is the Gaussian plume atmospheric dispersion model. Two of the critical parameters in this model are sigma/sub y/ and sigma/sub z/, the horizontal and vertical dispersion parameters, respectively. A number of different sets of values for sigma/sub y/ and sigma/sub z/ have been determined empirically for different release heights and meteorological and terrain conditions. The computer code DWNWND, described in this report, is an interactive implementation of the Gaussian plume model. This code allows the user to specify any one of eight different sets of the empirically determined dispersion paramters. Using the selected dispersion paramters, ground-level normalized exposure estimates are made at any specified downwind distance. Computed values may be corrected for plume depletion due to deposition and for plume settling due to gravitational fall. With this interactive code, the user chooses values for ten parameters which define the source, the dispersion and deposition process, and the sampling point. DWNWND is written in FORTRAN for execution on a PDP-10 computer, requiring less than one second of central processor unit time for each simulation

  11. Tobacco Town: Computational Modeling of Policy Options to Reduce Tobacco Retailer Density.

    Luke, Douglas A; Hammond, Ross A; Combs, Todd; Sorg, Amy; Kasman, Matt; Mack-Crane, Austen; Ribisl, Kurt M; Henriksen, Lisa

    2017-05-01

    To identify the behavioral mechanisms and effects of tobacco control policies designed to reduce tobacco retailer density. We developed the Tobacco Town agent-based simulation model to examine 4 types of retailer reduction policies: (1) random retailer reduction, (2) restriction by type of retailer, (3) limiting proximity of retailers to schools, and (4) limiting proximity of retailers to each other. The model examined the effects of these policies alone and in combination across 4 different types of towns, defined by 2 levels of population density (urban vs suburban) and 2 levels of income (higher vs lower). Model results indicated that reduction of retailer density has the potential to decrease accessibility of tobacco products by driving up search and purchase costs. Policy effects varied by town type: proximity policies worked better in dense, urban towns whereas retailer type and random retailer reduction worked better in less-dense, suburban settings. Comprehensive retailer density reduction policies have excellent potential to reduce the public health burden of tobacco use in communities.

  12. Peformance Tuning and Evaluation of a Parallel Community Climate Model

    Drake, J.B.; Worley, P.H.; Hammond, S.

    1999-11-13

    The Parallel Community Climate Model (PCCM) is a message-passing parallelization of version 2.1 of the Community Climate Model (CCM) developed by researchers at Argonne and Oak Ridge National Laboratories and at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in the early to mid 1990s. In preparation for use in the Department of Energy's Parallel Climate Model (PCM), PCCM has recently been updated with new physics routines from version 3.2 of the CCM, improvements to the parallel implementation, and ports to the SGIKray Research T3E and Origin 2000. We describe our experience in porting and tuning PCCM on these new platforms, evaluating the performance of different parallel algorithm options and comparing performance between the T3E and Origin 2000.

  13. Assessment of the feasibility and clinical value of further research to evaluate the management options for children with Down syndrome and otitis media with effusion: a feasibility study.

    Fortnum, Heather; Leighton, Paul; Smith, Murray D; Brown, Lisa; Jones, Matthew; Benton, Claire; Marder, Elizabeth; Marshall, Andrew; Sutton, Kate

    2014-09-01

    There is clinical uncertainty of the benefits and costs of different treatment options for children with Down syndrome who have glue ear. This study was designed to assess the extent of this lack of knowledge and determine if pursuing further information would be practical, beneficial and cost-effective. To assess the level and practical effect of current uncertainty around treatment options for children with Down syndrome and glue ear. To assess the feasibility of studying the options for management of glue ear in children with Down syndrome via a randomised controlled trial (RCT) or multicentre prospective cohort study by evaluating the willingness of (1) parents to agree to randomisation for their children and (2) clinicians to recruit participants to a definitive study. To undertake value of information analyses to demonstrate the potential economic benefit from undertaking further research. A feasibility study exploring the views of parents of children with Down syndrome and professionals who have responsibility for the health and education of children with Down syndrome, on the participation in, and value of, future research into interventions for glue ear. Data were collected from parents via self-completed questionnaires, face-to-face interviews and focus groups and from professionals via online questionnaires and a Delphi review exercise. Development of economic models to represent clinical pathways of care and a RCT informed a value of information (VOI) analysis. UK (professionals); East Midlands region of the UK (parents). Parents of children aged 1-11 years with Down syndrome (n = 156). Professionals including audiologists, ear, nose and throat surgeons, audiological physicians, speech and language therapists, and teachers of the deaf (n = 128). Quantitative and qualitative data on parental views and experiences of glue ear and its effects; interventions and treatment received; taking part in research and factors that would encourage or

  14. Accounting for water management issues within hydrological simulation: Alternative modelling options and a network optimization approach

    Efstratiadis, Andreas; Nalbantis, Ioannis; Rozos, Evangelos; Koutsoyiannis, Demetris

    2010-05-01

    In mixed natural and artificialized river basins, many complexities arise due to anthropogenic interventions in the hydrological cycle, including abstractions from surface water bodies, groundwater pumping or recharge and water returns through drainage systems. Typical engineering approaches adopt a multi-stage modelling procedure, with the aim to handle the complexity of process interactions and the lack of measured abstractions. In such context, the entire hydrosystem is separated into natural and artificial sub-systems or components; the natural ones are modelled individually, and their predictions (i.e. hydrological fluxes) are transferred to the artificial components as inputs to a water management scheme. To account for the interactions between the various components, an iterative procedure is essential, whereby the outputs of the artificial sub-systems (i.e. abstractions) become inputs to the natural ones. However, this strategy suffers from multiple shortcomings, since it presupposes that pure natural sub-systems can be located and that sufficient information is available for each sub-system modelled, including suitable, i.e. "unmodified", data for calibrating the hydrological component. In addition, implementing such strategy is ineffective when the entire scheme runs in stochastic simulation mode. To cope with the above drawbacks, we developed a generalized modelling framework, following a network optimization approach. This originates from the graph theory, which has been successfully implemented within some advanced computer packages for water resource systems analysis. The user formulates a unified system which is comprised of the hydrographical network and the typical components of a water management network (aqueducts, pumps, junctions, demand nodes etc.). Input data for the later include hydraulic properties, constraints, targets, priorities and operation costs. The real-world system is described through a conceptual graph, whose dummy properties

  15. Crafting decision options and alternatives for designing cultural observation system using general morphological modelling

    Jaber Moghaddampour

    2018-09-01

    Full Text Available According to connoisseurs, cultural system is encountering a fully new space in future decades and cultural indicators will be exposed by some dangers; for the same reason, cultural observation activities in management dialogue of Iran are emphasized; the concept of “observation” in Iran is facing with challenges including being far from the concepts of futures studies and the focus on “cultural indicators monitoring” while cultural engineering needs foresight and identification of affecting progressive and deterring factors on the culture. The present study aims at providing alternatives to design an observation system by considering the monitoring and scanning simultaneously to bring out strategic and futurist vision for cultural organizations. To this end, the solution space and morphological field of observation (parameters and values by using MA/Carma Viewer software package is designed based on the literature review and forming a five-member expert group and specialized conversations. Upon Internal Consistency Assessment of parameters and by considering some values as drivers, Parameters Activity Check was conducted to study the reactions by other parameters and values. After sense-making and proper understanding of the model behavior, an Inference and “What-If” model were devised; some configurations were studied and provided in order to aware a part of proper alternatives for designing a cultural observation system (two scenarios. Scenario selection is different due to contingencies and conditions of executing the process as well as the users’ needs and goals in cultural observation system and cultural organizations can make decisions and design detailed observation systems by using morphological models, solution space and alternatives provided in the present study and depended on their goals and needs.

  16. Density Forecasts of Crude-Oil Prices Using Option-Implied and ARCH-Type Models

    Tsiaras, Leonidas; Høg, Esben

      The predictive accuracy of competing crude-oil price forecast densities is investigated for the 1994-2006 period. Moving beyond standard ARCH models that rely exclusively on past returns, we examine the benefits of utilizing the forward-looking information that is embedded in the prices...... as for regions and intervals that are of special interest for the economic agent. We find that non-parametric adjustments of risk-neutral density forecasts perform significantly better than their parametric counterparts. Goodness-of-fit tests and out-of-sample likelihood comparisons favor forecast densities...

  17. Stargardt disease: clinical features, molecular genetics, animal models and therapeutic options

    Tanna, Preena; Strauss, Rupert W; Fujinami, Kaoru; Michaelides, Michel

    2017-01-01

    Stargardt disease (STGD1; MIM 248200) is the most prevalent inherited macular dystrophy and is associated with disease-causing sequence variants in the gene ABCA4. Significant advances have been made over the last 10 years in our understanding of both the clinical and molecular features of STGD1, and also the underlying pathophysiology, which has culminated in ongoing and planned human clinical trials of novel therapies. The aims of this review are to describe the detailed phenotypic and genotypic characteristics of the disease, conventional and novel imaging findings, current knowledge of animal models and pathogenesis, and the multiple avenues of intervention being explored. PMID:27491360

  18. Adequacy Criteria of Models of the Cargo Inspection System with Material Discrimination Option

    Osipov, S; Chakhlov, S; Osipov, O; Shtein, A; Van, J

    2016-01-01

    Generalized adequacy criteria for mathematical models in order to discriminate materials in X-ray inspection systems by the dual-energy method were developed. Two main approaches of the examination systems to produce the adequacy criteria by the final and the intermediate parameters of the dual-energy method were analyzed. The criteria were specified in respect to the discrimination by the effective atomic number and by the method of level functions. Experimental and theoretical estimates of the discrimination parameters of the test object constituents scanned by fan beams of X-ray radiation with the maximal energies of 4.5 and 9 MeV are given. (paper)

  19. Modelling the water energy nexus: should variability in water supply impact on decision making for future energy supply options?

    J. D. S. Cullis

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Many countries, like South Africa, Australia, India, China and the United States, are highly dependent on coal fired power stations for energy generation. These power stations require significant amounts of water, particularly when fitted with technology to reduce pollution and climate change impacts. As water resources come under stress it is important that spatial variability in water availability is taken into consideration for future energy planning particularly with regards to motivating for a switch from coal fired power stations to renewable technologies. This is particularly true in developing countries where there is a need for increased power production and associated increasing water demands for energy. Typically future energy supply options are modelled using a least cost optimization model such as TIMES that considers water supply as an input cost, but is generally constant for all technologies. Different energy technologies are located in different regions of the country with different levels of water availability and associated infrastructure development and supply costs. In this study we develop marginal cost curves for future water supply options in different regions of a country where different energy technologies are planned for development. These water supply cost curves are then used in an expanded version of the South Africa TIMES model called SATIM-W that explicitly models the water-energy nexus by taking into account the regional nature of water supply availability associated with different energy supply technologies. The results show a significant difference in the optimal future energy mix and in particular an increase in renewables and a demand for dry-cooling technologies that would not have been the case if the regional variability of water availability had not been taken into account. Choices in energy policy, such as the introduction of a carbon tax, will also significantly impact on future water resources, placing

  20. Modelling the water energy nexus: should variability in water supply impact on decision making for future energy supply options?

    Cullis, James D. S.; Walker, Nicholas J.; Ahjum, Fadiel; Juan Rodriguez, Diego

    2018-02-01

    Many countries, like South Africa, Australia, India, China and the United States, are highly dependent on coal fired power stations for energy generation. These power stations require significant amounts of water, particularly when fitted with technology to reduce pollution and climate change impacts. As water resources come under stress it is important that spatial variability in water availability is taken into consideration for future energy planning particularly with regards to motivating for a switch from coal fired power stations to renewable technologies. This is particularly true in developing countries where there is a need for increased power production and associated increasing water demands for energy. Typically future energy supply options are modelled using a least cost optimization model such as TIMES that considers water supply as an input cost, but is generally constant for all technologies. Different energy technologies are located in different regions of the country with different levels of water availability and associated infrastructure development and supply costs. In this study we develop marginal cost curves for future water supply options in different regions of a country where different energy technologies are planned for development. These water supply cost curves are then used in an expanded version of the South Africa TIMES model called SATIM-W that explicitly models the water-energy nexus by taking into account the regional nature of water supply availability associated with different energy supply technologies. The results show a significant difference in the optimal future energy mix and in particular an increase in renewables and a demand for dry-cooling technologies that would not have been the case if the regional variability of water availability had not been taken into account. Choices in energy policy, such as the introduction of a carbon tax, will also significantly impact on future water resources, placing additional water

  1. Process Options Description for Vitrification Flowsheet Model of INEEL Sodium Bearing Waste

    Nichols, T.T.; Taylor, D.D.; Lauerhass, L.; Barnes, C.M.

    2002-02-21

    The technical information required for the development of a basic steady-state process simulation of the vitrification treatment train of sodium bearing waste (SBW) at Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory (INEEL) is presented. The objective of the modeling effort is to provide the predictive capability required to optimize an entire treatment train and assess system-wide impacts of local changes at individual unit operations, with the aim of reducing the schedule and cost of future process/facility design efforts. All the information required a priori for engineers to construct and link unit operation modules in a commercial software simulator to represent the alternative treatment trains is presented. The information is of a mid- to high-level nature and consists of the following: (1) a description of twenty-four specific unit operations--their operating conditions and constraints, primary species and key outputs, and the initial modeling approaches that will be used in the first year of the simulation's development; (2) three potential configurations of the unit operations (trains) and their interdependencies via stream connections; and (3) representative stream compositional makeups.

  2. Process Options Description for Vitrification Flowsheet Model of INEEL Sodium Bearing Waste

    Nichols, T.T.; Taylor, D.D.; Lauerhass, L.; Barnes, C.M.

    2002-01-01

    The technical information required for the development of a basic steady-state process simulation of the vitrification treatment train of sodium bearing waste (SBW) at Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory (INEEL) is presented. The objective of the modeling effort is to provide the predictive capability required to optimize an entire treatment train and assess system-wide impacts of local changes at individual unit operations, with the aim of reducing the schedule and cost of future process/facility design efforts. All the information required a priori for engineers to construct and link unit operation modules in a commercial software simulator to represent the alternative treatment trains is presented. The information is of a mid- to high-level nature and consists of the following: (1) a description of twenty-four specific unit operations--their operating conditions and constraints, primary species and key outputs, and the initial modeling approaches that will be used in the first year of the simulation's development; (2) three potential configurations of the unit operations (trains) and their interdependencies via stream connections; and (3) representative stream compositional makeups

  3. Applying real options analysis to assess cleaner energy development strategies

    Cheng, Ching-Tsung; Lo, Shang-Lien; Lin, Tyrone T.

    2011-01-01

    The energy industry, accounts for the largest portion of CO 2 emissions, is facing the issue of compliance with the national clean energy policy. The methodology for evaluating the energy mix policy is crucial because of the characteristics of lead time embedded with the power generation facilities investment and the uncertainty of future electricity demand. In this paper, a modified binomial model based on sequential compound options, which may account for the lead time and uncertainty as a whole is established, and a numerical example on evaluating the optional strategies and the strategic value of the cleaner energy policy is also presented. It is found that the optimal decision at some nodes in the binomial tree is path dependent, which is different from the standard sequential compound option model with lead time or time lag concept. The proposed modified binomial sequential compound real options model can be generalized and extensively applied to solve the general decision problems that deal with the long lead time of many government policies as well as capital intensive investments. - Highlights: → Introducing a flexible strategic management approach for government policy making. → Developing a modified binomial real options model based on sequential compound options. → Proposing an innovative model for managing the long term policy with lead time. → Applying to evaluate the options of various scenarios of cleaner energy strategies.

  4. Options Study - Phase II

    R. Wigeland; T. Taiwo; M. Todosow; W. Halsey; J. Gehin

    2010-09-01

    The Options Study has been conducted for the purpose of evaluating the potential of alternative integrated nuclear fuel cycle options to favorably address the issues associated with a continuing or expanding use of nuclear power in the United States. The study produced information that can be used to inform decisions identifying potential directions for research and development on such fuel cycle options. An integrated nuclear fuel cycle option is defined in this study as including all aspects of the entire nuclear fuel cycle, from obtaining natural resources for fuel to the ultimate disposal of used nuclear fuel (UNF) or radioactive wastes. Issues such as nuclear waste management, especially the increasing inventory of used nuclear fuel, the current uncertainty about used fuel disposal, and the risk of nuclear weapons proliferation have contributed to the reluctance to expand the use of nuclear power, even though it is recognized that nuclear power is a safe and reliable method of producing electricity. In this Options Study, current, evolutionary, and revolutionary nuclear energy options were all considered, including the use of uranium and thorium, and both once-through and recycle approaches. Available information has been collected and reviewed in order to evaluate the ability of an option to clearly address the challenges associated with the current implementation and potential expansion of commercial nuclear power in the United States. This Options Study is a comprehensive consideration and review of fuel cycle and technology options, including those for disposal, and is not constrained by any limitations that may be imposed by economics, technical maturity, past policy, or speculated future conditions. This Phase II report is intended to be used in conjunction with the Phase I report, and much information in that report is not repeated here, although some information has been updated to reflect recent developments. The focus in this Options Study was to

  5. JSBML 1.0: providing a smorgasbord of options to encode systems biology models

    Rodriguez, Nicolas; Thomas, Alex; Watanabe, Leandro

    2015-01-01

    JSBML, the official pure Java programming library for the Systems Biology Markup Language (SBML) format, has evolved with the advent of different modeling formalisms in systems biology and their ability to be exchanged and represented via extensions of SBML. JSBML has matured into a major, active...... open-source project with contributions from a growing, international team of developers who not only maintain compatibility with SBML, but also drive steady improvements to the Java interface and promote ease-of-use with end users. Source code, binaries and documentation for JSBML can be freely...... obtained under the terms of the LGPL 2.1 from the website http://sbml.org/Software/JSBML. More information about JSBML can be found in the user guide at http://sbml.org/Software/JSBML/docs/. jsbml-development@googlegroups.com or andraeger@eng.ucsd.edu Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics...

  6. Stargardt disease: clinical features, molecular genetics, animal models and therapeutic options.

    Tanna, Preena; Strauss, Rupert W; Fujinami, Kaoru; Michaelides, Michel

    2017-01-01

    Stargardt disease (STGD1; MIM 248200) is the most prevalent inherited macular dystrophy and is associated with disease-causing sequence variants in the gene ABCA4 Significant advances have been made over the last 10 years in our understanding of both the clinical and molecular features of STGD1, and also the underlying pathophysiology, which has culminated in ongoing and planned human clinical trials of novel therapies. The aims of this review are to describe the detailed phenotypic and genotypic characteristics of the disease, conventional and novel imaging findings, current knowledge of animal models and pathogenesis, and the multiple avenues of intervention being explored. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

  7. The role of nuclear power and other options in competitive electricity market study using message model

    Scorpio Sri Herdinie and Edi Sartono

    2003-01-01

    The electricity demand in Indonesia is very high due to the National Economic Development based on industrialization and supported by a strong agriculture base. It can be noted that in the last five years, the annual electricity growth rate has been reaching around 15% per annum. Though during the economic crisis the electricity demand have time to reduction. Start early 2000s the economic growth in Indonesia will gradually increase. As a consequence, the electricity growth rate also increase in the next coming decades. MESSAGE (Model for Energy Supply Strategy Alternatives and their General Environmental Impacts) is a model designed for the optimization of energy system(i.e. energy supplies and utilization). The goal of this study is to support the national planning and decision making process in the energy and electricity sector in Indonesia with regard to the economic, health, environmental and safety aspects. The objective of this study is to analyse the role of Nuclear Power Plant in the whole energy systems by introducing the new electricity regulation and structure in the market. Seen that Nuclear Power Plant will be enter the Java Bali system in the period between 2015-2020. and will dominate the addition of capacities by the end period of study (year 2020-2025). Nuclear energy has very important long term roles in the energy scenario and it is possible to do the market competitive when the Multi buyer Multi Seller (MBMS) will be done in the system electricity in Indonesia(the government has changed the target of MBMS realization into 2007). (author)

  8. Preliminary economic analysis of poultry litter gasification option with a simple transportation model.

    Sheth, Atul C; English, Jennifer

    2005-04-01

    Several environmental issues are related to the disposal of poultry litter. In an effort to provide a more environmentally friendly alternative than landfill disposal or spreading as a soil amendment, work has been carried out previously at the University of Tennessee Space Institute (UTSI). This past UTSI work was concentrated on developing a catalytic steam gasification concept to produce energy from poultry litter. In the past UTSI studies, preliminary design and economics for a stationary, centralized gasification plant capable of processing approximately 100 ton/day of poultry litter were developed. However, in this preliminary design the economic impact of transporting litter to a centralized gasification plant location was not addressed. To determine the preliminary impact of transporting the poultry litter on the overall economics of this energy conversion plant design, a simple transportation model was developed. This model was used in conjunction with the earlier plant design prepared at UTSI to determine the economic feasibility of a centralized, stationary poultry litter gasification plant. To do so, major variables such as traveling distance, plant feed rate (or capacity), fluctuations in the sales price of the product gas (that means value of the energy), population density of poultry farms, impact of tipping fees, and cost of litter were varied. The study showed that for plant with a capacity of 1000 ton/day to be able to withstand several changes in economic conditions and sustain itself, the poultry farm density would need to be approximately 0.3 houses/mi2. Smaller plants would need either a higher energy price or some kind of subsidy to be economically feasible.

  9. Educational game models: conceptualization and evaluation ...

    Educational game models: conceptualization and evaluation. ... The Game Object Model (GOM), that marries educational theory and game design, forms the basis for the development of the Persona Outlining ... AJOL African Journals Online.

  10. A simple simulation model as a tool to assess alternative health care provider payment reform options in Vietnam.

    Cashin, Cheryl; Phuong, Nguyen Khanh; Shain, Ryan; Oanh, Tran Thi Mai; Thuy, Nguyen Thi

    2015-01-01

    Vietnam is currently considering a revision of its 2008 Health Insurance Law, including the regulation of provider payment methods. This study uses a simple spreadsheet-based, micro-simulation model to analyse the potential impacts of different provider payment reform scenarios on resource allocation across health care providers in three provinces in Vietnam, as well as on the total expenditure of the provincial branches of the public health insurance agency (Provincial Social Security [PSS]). The results show that currently more than 50% of PSS spending is concentrated at the provincial level with less than half at the district level. There is also a high degree of financial risk on district hospitals with the current fund-holding arrangement. Results of the simulation model show that several alternative scenarios for provider payment reform could improve the current payment system by reducing the high financial risk currently borne by district hospitals without dramatically shifting the current level and distribution of PSS expenditure. The results of the simulation analysis provided an empirical basis for health policy-makers in Vietnam to assess different provider payment reform options and make decisions about new models to support health system objectives.

  11. A scenario analysis of investment options for the Cuban power sector using the MARKAL model

    Wright, Evelyn L.; Belt, Juan A.B.; Chambers, Adam; Delaquil, Pat; Goldstein, Gary

    2010-01-01

    The Cuban power sector faces a need for extensive investment in new generating capacity, under a large number of uncertainties regarding future conditions, including: rate of demand growth, fluctuations in fuel prices, access to imported fuel, and access to investment capital for construction of new power plants and development of fuel import infrastructure. To identify cost effective investment strategies under these uncertainties, a supply and power sector MARKAL model was assembled, following an extensive review of available data on the Cuban power system and resource potentials. Two scenarios were assessed, a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario assuming continued moderate electricity load growth and domestic fuel production growth, and a high growth (HI) scenario assuming rapid electricity demand growth, rapid increase in domestic fuel production, and a transition to market pricing of electricity. Within these two scenarios sets, sensitivity analyses were conducted on a number of variables. The implications of least-cost investment strategies for new capacity builds, investment spending requirements, electricity prices, fuel expenditures, and carbon dioxide emissions for each scenario were assessed. Natural gas was found to be the cost effective fuel for new generation across both scenarios and most sensitivity cases, suggesting that access to natural gas, through increased domestic production and LNG import, is a clear priority for further analysis in the Cuban context.

  12. A scenario analysis of investment options for the Cuban power sector using the MARKAL model

    Wright, Evelyn L.; Chambers, Adam; Delaquil, Pat; Goldstein, Gary [International Resources Group, 1211 Connecticut Avenue, NW, Suite 700, Washington, DC 20036 (United States); Belt, Juan A.B. [US Agency for International Development, 1300 Pennsylvania Avenue, NW, Washington, DC 20523-3800 (United States)

    2010-07-15

    The Cuban power sector faces a need for extensive investment in new generating capacity, under a large number of uncertainties regarding future conditions, including: rate of demand growth, fluctuations in fuel prices, access to imported fuel, and access to investment capital for construction of new power plants and development of fuel import infrastructure. To identify cost effective investment strategies under these uncertainties, a supply and power sector MARKAL model was assembled, following an extensive review of available data on the Cuban power system and resource potentials. Two scenarios were assessed, a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario assuming continued moderate electricity load growth and domestic fuel production growth, and a high growth (HI) scenario assuming rapid electricity demand growth, rapid increase in domestic fuel production, and a transition to market pricing of electricity. Within these two scenarios sets, sensitivity analyses were conducted on a number of variables. The implications of least-cost investment strategies for new capacity builds, investment spending requirements, electricity prices, fuel expenditures, and carbon dioxide emissions for each scenario were assessed. Natural gas was found to be the cost effective fuel for new generation across both scenarios and most sensitivity cases, suggesting that access to natural gas, through increased domestic production and LNG import, is a clear priority for further analysis in the Cuban context. (author)

  13. The EMEFS model evaluation. An interim report

    Barchet, W.R. [Pacific Northwest Lab., Richland, WA (United States); Dennis, R.L. [Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC (United States); Seilkop, S.K. [Analytical Sciences, Inc., Durham, NC (United States); Banic, C.M.; Davies, D.; Hoff, R.M.; Macdonald, A.M.; Mickle, R.E.; Padro, J.; Puckett, K. [Atmospheric Environment Service, Downsview, ON (Canada); Byun, D.; McHenry, J.N. [Computer Sciences Corp., Research Triangle Park, NC (United States); Karamchandani, P.; Venkatram, A. [ENSR Consulting and Engineering, Camarillo, CA (United States); Fung, C.; Misra, P.K. [Ontario Ministry of the Environment, Toronto, ON (Canada); Hansen, D.A. [Electric Power Research Inst., Palo Alto, CA (United States); Chang, J.S. [State Univ. of New York, Albany, NY (United States). Atmospheric Sciences Research Center

    1991-12-01

    The binational Eulerian Model Evaluation Field Study (EMEFS) consisted of several coordinated data gathering and model evaluation activities. In the EMEFS, data were collected by five air and precipitation monitoring networks between June 1988 and June 1990. Model evaluation is continuing. This interim report summarizes the progress made in the evaluation of the Regional Acid Deposition Model (RADM) and the Acid Deposition and Oxidant Model (ADOM) through the December 1990 completion of a State of Science and Technology report on model evaluation for the National Acid Precipitation Assessment Program (NAPAP). Because various assessment applications of RADM had to be evaluated for NAPAP, the report emphasizes the RADM component of the evaluation. A protocol for the evaluation was developed by the model evaluation team and defined the observed and predicted values to be used and the methods by which the observed and predicted values were to be compared. Scatter plots and time series of predicted and observed values were used to present the comparisons graphically. Difference statistics and correlations were used to quantify model performance. 64 refs., 34 figs., 6 tabs.

  14. Quantifying policy options for reducing future coronary heart disease mortality in England: a modelling study.

    Shaun Scholes

    Full Text Available To estimate the number of coronary heart disease (CHD deaths potentially preventable in England in 2020 comparing four risk factor change scenarios.Using 2007 as baseline, the IMPACTSEC model was extended to estimate the potential number of CHD deaths preventable in England in 2020 by age, gender and Index of Multiple Deprivation 2007 quintiles given four risk factor change scenarios: (a assuming recent trends will continue; (b assuming optimal but feasible levels already achieved elsewhere; (c an intermediate point, halfway between current and optimal levels; and (d assuming plateauing or worsening levels, the worst case scenario. These four scenarios were compared to the baseline scenario with both risk factors and CHD mortality rates remaining at 2007 levels. This would result in approximately 97,000 CHD deaths in 2020. Assuming recent trends will continue would avert approximately 22,640 deaths (95% uncertainty interval: 20,390-24,980. There would be some 39,720 (37,120-41,900 fewer deaths in 2020 with optimal risk factor levels and 22,330 fewer (19,850-24,300 in the intermediate scenario. In the worst case scenario, 16,170 additional deaths (13,880-18,420 would occur. If optimal risk factor levels were achieved, the gap in CHD rates between the most and least deprived areas would halve with falls in systolic blood pressure, physical inactivity and total cholesterol providing the largest contributions to mortality gains.CHD mortality reductions of up to 45%, accompanied by significant reductions in area deprivation mortality disparities, would be possible by implementing optimal preventive policies.

  15. Quantifying policy options for reducing future coronary heart disease mortality in England: a modelling study.

    Scholes, Shaun; Bajekal, Madhavi; Norman, Paul; O'Flaherty, Martin; Hawkins, Nathaniel; Kivimäki, Mika; Capewell, Simon; Raine, Rosalind

    2013-01-01

    To estimate the number of coronary heart disease (CHD) deaths potentially preventable in England in 2020 comparing four risk factor change scenarios. Using 2007 as baseline, the IMPACTSEC model was extended to estimate the potential number of CHD deaths preventable in England in 2020 by age, gender and Index of Multiple Deprivation 2007 quintiles given four risk factor change scenarios: (a) assuming recent trends will continue; (b) assuming optimal but feasible levels already achieved elsewhere; (c) an intermediate point, halfway between current and optimal levels; and (d) assuming plateauing or worsening levels, the worst case scenario. These four scenarios were compared to the baseline scenario with both risk factors and CHD mortality rates remaining at 2007 levels. This would result in approximately 97,000 CHD deaths in 2020. Assuming recent trends will continue would avert approximately 22,640 deaths (95% uncertainty interval: 20,390-24,980). There would be some 39,720 (37,120-41,900) fewer deaths in 2020 with optimal risk factor levels and 22,330 fewer (19,850-24,300) in the intermediate scenario. In the worst case scenario, 16,170 additional deaths (13,880-18,420) would occur. If optimal risk factor levels were achieved, the gap in CHD rates between the most and least deprived areas would halve with falls in systolic blood pressure, physical inactivity and total cholesterol providing the largest contributions to mortality gains. CHD mortality reductions of up to 45%, accompanied by significant reductions in area deprivation mortality disparities, would be possible by implementing optimal preventive policies.

  16. Evaluation of a decontamination model

    Rippin, D.W.T.; Hanulik, J.; Schenker, E.; Ullrich, G.

    1981-02-01

    In the scale-up of a laboratory decontamination process difficulties arise due to the limited understanding of the mechanisms controlling the process. This paper contains some initial proposals which may contribute to the quantitative understanding of the chemical and physical factors which influence decontamination operations. General features required in a mathematical model to describe a fluid-solid reaction are discussed, and initial work is presented with a simple model which has had some success in describing the observed laboratory behaviour. (Auth.)

  17. Influence of Modelling Options in RELAP5/SCDAPSIM and MAAP4 Computer Codes on Core Melt Progression and Reactor Pressure Vessel Integrity

    Siniša Šadek

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available RELAP5/SCDAPSIM and MAAP4 are two widely used severe accident computer codes for the integral analysis of the core and the reactor pressure vessel behaviour following the core degradation. The objective of the paper is the comparison of code results obtained by application of different modelling options and the evaluation of influence of thermal hydraulic behaviour of the plant on core damage progression. The analysed transient was postulated station blackout in NPP Krško with a leakage from reactor coolant pump seals. Two groups of calculations were performed where each group had a different break area and, thus, a different leakage rate. Analyses have shown that MAAP4 results were more sensitive to varying thermal hydraulic conditions in the primary system. User-defined parameters had to be carefully selected when the MAAP4 model was developed, in contrast to the RELAP5/SCDAPSIM model where those parameters did not have any significant impact on final results.

  18. The Real Options Attached to an Investment Project

    Mihai-Cristian DINICĂ

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available The real options capture the importance of the managerial team’s role in creating value through investment projects. The investments in real assets have a set of options that managers can exercise during the period of the project to increase the value of the assets or to limit the eventual losses. This options have their own value.The traditional methods for investment project evaluatioan, based on discounted cash flows, have some major disadvantages: they assume the irreversibility of a decision, do not take into account the interactions between decisions in several periods and treat the investment as pasive. The evaluation using real options undertake this disadvantage. The paper shows the main types of real options, together with their elements and captures the impact of these options on the value of the investment. The main two models used to evaluate real options, the binomial model and Black-Scholes model, are explained and used to compute the value of real options attached to an investment project.

  19. Risk assessment of the oriental chestnut gall wasp, Dryocosmus kuriphilus for the EU territory and identification and evaluation of risk management options

    Baker, R.; Candresse, T.; Dormannsné Simon, E.

    2010-01-01

    in its assessment that a) Castanea plants for intended planting represent the main pathway for entry of D. kuriphilus to the EU; b) D. kuriphilus has a very high potential for establishment in the EU and the climate is suitable wherever Castanea sativa is grown in southern, central and western Europe; c......The Panel on Plant Health was requested by the European Commission to deliver a scientific opinion on the risk posed by the oriental chestnut gall wasp, Dryocosmus kuriphilus to the EU territory and to identify and evaluate risk management options. Additional analyses were conducted by the Panel...... to a) determine the distribution of the endangered area within the EU territory; b) investigate the pattern and rate of pest diffusion and c) consider the environmental risk of introduction of the biological control agent Torymus sinensis identified as a potential management option. The Panel concluded...

  20. Idaho's Energy Options

    Robert M. Neilson

    2006-03-01

    This report, developed by the Idaho National Laboratory, is provided as an introduction to and an update of the status of technologies for the generation and use of energy. Its purpose is to provide information useful for identifying and evaluating Idaho’s energy options, and for developing and implementing Idaho’s energy direction and policies.

  1. Public health economic evaluation of different European Union–level policy options aimed at reducing population dietary trans fat intake12

    Mouratidou, Theodora; Livaniou, Anastasia

    2016-01-01

    Background: The adverse relation between dietary trans fatty acid (TFA) intake and coronary artery disease risk is well established. Many countries in the European Union (EU) and worldwide have implemented different policies to reduce the TFA intake of their populations. Objective: The aim of this study was to assess the added value of EU-level action by estimating the cost-effectiveness of 3 possible EU-level policy measures to reduce population dietary TFA intake. This was calculated against a reference situation of not implementing any EU-level policy (i.e., by assuming only national or self-regulatory measures). Design: We developed a mathematical model to compare different policy options at the EU level: 1) to do nothing beyond the current state (reference situation), 2) to impose mandatory TFA labeling of prepackaged foods, 3) to seek voluntary agreements toward further reducing industrially produced TFA (iTFA) content in foods, and 4) to impose a legislative limit for iTFA content in foods. Results: The model indicated that to impose an EU-level legal limit or to make voluntary agreements may, over the course of a lifetime (85 y), avoid the loss of 3.73 and 2.19 million disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), respectively, and save >51 and 23 billion euros when compared with the reference situation. Implementing mandatory TFA labeling can also avoid the loss of 0.98 million DALYs, but this option incurs more costs than it saves compared with the reference option. Conclusions: The model indicates that there is added value of an EU-level action, either via a legal limit or through voluntary agreements, with the legal limit option producing the highest additional health benefits. Introducing mandatory TFA labeling for the EU common market may provide some additional health benefits; however, this would likely not be a cost-effective strategy. PMID:27680991

  2. Empirically evaluating decision-analytic models.

    Goldhaber-Fiebert, Jeremy D; Stout, Natasha K; Goldie, Sue J

    2010-08-01

    Model-based cost-effectiveness analyses support decision-making. To augment model credibility, evaluation via comparison to independent, empirical studies is recommended. We developed a structured reporting format for model evaluation and conducted a structured literature review to characterize current model evaluation recommendations and practices. As an illustration, we applied the reporting format to evaluate a microsimulation of human papillomavirus and cervical cancer. The model's outputs and uncertainty ranges were compared with multiple outcomes from a study of long-term progression from high-grade precancer (cervical intraepithelial neoplasia [CIN]) to cancer. Outcomes included 5 to 30-year cumulative cancer risk among women with and without appropriate CIN treatment. Consistency was measured by model ranges overlapping study confidence intervals. The structured reporting format included: matching baseline characteristics and follow-up, reporting model and study uncertainty, and stating metrics of consistency for model and study results. Structured searches yielded 2963 articles with 67 meeting inclusion criteria and found variation in how current model evaluations are reported. Evaluation of the cervical cancer microsimulation, reported using the proposed format, showed a modeled cumulative risk of invasive cancer for inadequately treated women of 39.6% (30.9-49.7) at 30 years, compared with the study: 37.5% (28.4-48.3). For appropriately treated women, modeled risks were 1.0% (0.7-1.3) at 30 years, study: 1.5% (0.4-3.3). To support external and projective validity, cost-effectiveness models should be iteratively evaluated as new studies become available, with reporting standardized to facilitate assessment. Such evaluations are particularly relevant for models used to conduct comparative effectiveness analyses.

  3. Option value of electricity demand response

    Sezgen, Osman; Goldman, C.A. [Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, 1 Cyclotron Road, Berkeley CA 94720 (United States); Krishnarao, P. [Citigroup Energy Inc., 1301 Fannin St, Houston, TX 77002 (United States)

    2007-02-15

    As electricity markets deregulate and energy tariffs increasingly expose customers to commodity price volatility, it is difficult for energy consumers to assess the economic value of investments in technologies that manage electricity demand in response to changing energy prices. The key uncertainties in evaluating the economics of demand-response technologies are the level and volatility of future wholesale energy prices. In this paper, we demonstrate that financial engineering methodologies originally developed for pricing equity and commodity derivatives (e.g., futures, swaps, options) can be used to estimate the value of demand-response technologies. We adapt models used to value energy options and assets to value three common demand-response strategies: load curtailment, load shifting or displacement, and short-term fuel substitution-specifically, distributed generation. These option models represent an improvement to traditional discounted cash flow methods for assessing the relative merits of demand-side technology investments in restructured electricity markets. (author)

  4. Option value of electricity demand response

    Sezgen, Osman; Goldman, C.A.; Krishnarao, P.

    2007-01-01

    As electricity markets deregulate and energy tariffs increasingly expose customers to commodity price volatility, it is difficult for energy consumers to assess the economic value of investments in technologies that manage electricity demand in response to changing energy prices. The key uncertainties in evaluating the economics of demand-response technologies are the level and volatility of future wholesale energy prices. In this paper, we demonstrate that financial engineering methodologies originally developed for pricing equity and commodity derivatives (e.g., futures, swaps, options) can be used to estimate the value of demand-response technologies. We adapt models used to value energy options and assets to value three common demand-response strategies: load curtailment, load shifting or displacement, and short-term fuel substitution-specifically, distributed generation. These option models represent an improvement to traditional discounted cash flow methods for assessing the relative merits of demand-side technology investments in restructured electricity markets. (author)

  5. Site descriptive modelling - strategy for integrated evaluation

    Andersson, Johan

    2003-02-01

    The current document establishes the strategy to be used for achieving sufficient integration between disciplines in producing Site Descriptive Models during the Site Investigation stage. The Site Descriptive Model should be a multidisciplinary interpretation of geology, rock mechanics, thermal properties, hydrogeology, hydrogeochemistry, transport properties and ecosystems using site investigation data from deep bore holes and from the surface as input. The modelling comprise the following iterative steps, evaluation of primary data, descriptive and quantitative modelling (in 3D), overall confidence evaluation. Data are first evaluated within each discipline and then the evaluations are checked between the disciplines. Three-dimensional modelling (i.e. estimating the distribution of parameter values in space and its uncertainty) is made in a sequence, where the geometrical framework is taken from the geological model and in turn used by the rock mechanics, thermal and hydrogeological modelling etc. The three-dimensional description should present the parameters with their spatial variability over a relevant and specified scale, with the uncertainty included in this description. Different alternative descriptions may be required. After the individual discipline modelling and uncertainty assessment a phase of overall confidence evaluation follows. Relevant parts of the different modelling teams assess the suggested uncertainties and evaluate the feedback. These discussions should assess overall confidence by, checking that all relevant data are used, checking that information in past model versions is considered, checking that the different kinds of uncertainty are addressed, checking if suggested alternatives make sense and if there is potential for additional alternatives, and by discussing, if appropriate, how additional measurements (i.e. more data) would affect confidence. The findings as well as the modelling results are to be documented in a Site Description

  6. Nevada Transportation Options Study

    P. GEHNER; E.M. WEAVER; L. FOSSUM

    2006-01-01

    of rail is restricted to approximately twelve, without upgrading public highways. There is high uncertainty as to what road upgrades and security/escorts the Nevada Department of Transportation would require to obtain an overweight/overdimensional permit. In addition, the Naval Nuclear Propulsion Program has indicated that a larger cask weight than that analyzed in the Final Environmental Impact Statement may be required for naval shipments, resulting in additional costs for heavy-haul transport. These uncertainties result in a high cost and schedule risk. Option 3 assumes that the start of rail construction will be delayed until after construction authorization is received from the Nuclear Regulatory Commission. Similar to Option 2, Option 3 uses legal-weight truck shipments and limited heavy haul truck shipments to meet the same initial waste receipt rates as Option 1, until rail becomes available. By using heavy-haul truck for two years, Option 3 contains the same uncertainties and resultant high cost and schedule risk as Option 2. The cost and schedule of legal-weight truck transport are not included in this report as that will be evaluated in the report on national transportation

  7. Standards, options and recommends for the external radiotherapy of patients reached by prostate carcinoma: evaluation of dose effect

    Pommier, P.; Fervers, B.; Villers, A.; Bataillard, A.

    2002-01-01

    The 'Standards, Options and Recommendations' (SOR) collaborative project was initiated in 1993 by the Federation of the French Cancer Centres (FNCLCC), with the 20 French Regional Cancer Centres (FNCCLCC), with the 20 French Regional Cancer Centres, several French public university and general hospitals, as well as private clinics and medical specialty societies. Its main objective is the development of serviceable clinical practice guidelines in order to improve the quality of health care and the outcome of cancer patients. The methodology is based on a literature review, followed by critical appraisal by a multidisciplinary group of experts. Draft guidelines for the radiotherapy of prostate cancer using the methodology developed by the Standards, Options and Recommendations project. The FNCLCC and the French Urology Association (AFU) designated the multidisciplinary group of experts. Available data were collected by a search of Medline and lists selected by experts in the group A first draft of the guidelines was written, they validated by independent reviewers. The main recommendations are: a minimal dose of 70 Gy; patients with intermediate prognosis are the ones who benefit most from the dose escalation effect over 74 Gy, provided they receive exclusive radiation therapy; whenever possible, patients should be included in controlled trials designed to assess the effects of dose escalation and hormonotherapy. (author)

  8. Rock mechanics models evaluation report: Draft report

    1985-10-01

    This report documents the evaluation of the thermal and thermomechanical models and codes for repository subsurface design and for design constraint analysis. The evaluation was based on a survey of the thermal and thermomechanical codes and models that are applicable to subsurface design, followed by a Kepner-Tregoe (KT) structured decision analysis of the codes and models. The end result of the KT analysis is a balanced, documented recommendation of the codes and models which are best suited to conceptual subsurface design for the salt repository. The various laws for modeling the creep of rock salt are also reviewed in this report. 37 refs., 1 fig., 7 tabs

  9. Evaluation of animal models of neurobehavioral disorders

    Nordquist Rebecca E

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Animal models play a central role in all areas of biomedical research. The process of animal model building, development and evaluation has rarely been addressed systematically, despite the long history of using animal models in the investigation of neuropsychiatric disorders and behavioral dysfunctions. An iterative, multi-stage trajectory for developing animal models and assessing their quality is proposed. The process starts with defining the purpose(s of the model, preferentially based on hypotheses about brain-behavior relationships. Then, the model is developed and tested. The evaluation of the model takes scientific and ethical criteria into consideration. Model development requires a multidisciplinary approach. Preclinical and clinical experts should establish a set of scientific criteria, which a model must meet. The scientific evaluation consists of assessing the replicability/reliability, predictive, construct and external validity/generalizability, and relevance of the model. We emphasize the role of (systematic and extended replications in the course of the validation process. One may apply a multiple-tiered 'replication battery' to estimate the reliability/replicability, validity, and generalizability of result. Compromised welfare is inherent in many deficiency models in animals. Unfortunately, 'animal welfare' is a vaguely defined concept, making it difficult to establish exact evaluation criteria. Weighing the animal's welfare and considerations as to whether action is indicated to reduce the discomfort must accompany the scientific evaluation at any stage of the model building and evaluation process. Animal model building should be discontinued if the model does not meet the preset scientific criteria, or when animal welfare is severely compromised. The application of the evaluation procedure is exemplified using the rat with neonatal hippocampal lesion as a proposed model of schizophrenia. In a manner congruent to

  10. Comparative Risk Assessment of spill response options for a deepwater oil well blowout: Part 1. Oil spill modeling.

    French-McCay, Deborah; Crowley, Deborah; Rowe, Jill J; Bock, Michael; Robinson, Hilary; Wenning, Richard; Walker, Ann Hayward; Joeckel, John; Nedwed, Tim J; Parkerton, Thomas F

    2018-05-31

    Oil spill model simulations of a deepwater blowout in the Gulf of Mexico De Soto Canyon, assuming no intervention and various response options (i.e., subsea dispersant injection SSDI, in addition to mechanical recovery, in-situ burning, and surface dispersant application) were compared. Predicted oil fate, amount and area of surfaced oil, and exposure concentrations in the water column above potential effects thresholds were used as inputs to a Comparative Risk Assessment to identify response strategies that minimize long-term impacts. SSDI reduced human and wildlife exposure to volatile organic compounds; dispersed oil into a large water volume at depth; enhanced biodegradation; and reduced surface water, nearshore and shoreline exposure to floating oil and entrained/dissolved oil in the upper water column. Tradeoffs included increased oil exposures at depth. However, since organisms are less abundant below 200 m, results indicate that overall exposure of valued ecosystem components was minimized by use of SSDI. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Computable error estimates of a finite difference scheme for option pricing in exponential Lévy models

    Kiessling, Jonas

    2014-05-06

    Option prices in exponential Lévy models solve certain partial integro-differential equations. This work focuses on developing novel, computable error approximations for a finite difference scheme that is suitable for solving such PIDEs. The scheme was introduced in (Cont and Voltchkova, SIAM J. Numer. Anal. 43(4):1596-1626, 2005). The main results of this work are new estimates of the dominating error terms, namely the time and space discretisation errors. In addition, the leading order terms of the error estimates are determined in a form that is more amenable to computations. The payoff is only assumed to satisfy an exponential growth condition, it is not assumed to be Lipschitz continuous as in previous works. If the underlying Lévy process has infinite jump activity, then the jumps smaller than some (Formula presented.) are approximated by diffusion. The resulting diffusion approximation error is also estimated, with leading order term in computable form, as well as the dependence of the time and space discretisation errors on this approximation. Consequently, it is possible to determine how to jointly choose the space and time grid sizes and the cut off parameter (Formula presented.). © 2014 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht.

  12. Modelling effects of geoengineering options in response to climate change and global warming: implications for coral reefs.

    Crabbe, M J C

    2009-12-01

    Climate change will have serious effects on the planet and on its ecosystems. Currently, mitigation efforts are proving ineffectual in reducing anthropogenic CO2 emissions. Coral reefs are the most sensitive ecosystems on the planet to climate change, and here we review modelling a number of geoengineering options, and their potential influence on coral reefs. There are two categories of geoengineering, shortwave solar radiation management and longwave carbon dioxide removal. The first set of techniques only reduce some, but not all, effects of climate change, while possibly creating other problems. They also do not affect CO2 levels and therefore fail to address the wider effects of rising CO2, including ocean acidification, important for coral reefs. Solar radiation is important to coral growth and survival, and solar radiation management is not in general appropriate for this ecosystem. Longwave carbon dioxide removal techniques address the root cause of climate change, rising CO2 concentrations, they have relatively low uncertainties and risks. They are worthy of further research and potential implementation, particularly carbon capture and storage, biochar, and afforestation methods, alongside increased mitigation of atmospheric CO2 concentrations.

  13. THE REAL OPTIONS OF CAPITAL BUDGET

    Antonio Lopo Martins

    2008-07-01

    Full Text Available The traditional techniques of capital budget, as the deducted cash flow and the net value present, do not incorporate existing flexibilities in an investment project, they tend to distort the value of certain investments, mainly those that are considered in scenes of uncertainty and risk. Therefore, this study intends to demonstrate that the Real Options Theory (TOR is a useful methodology to evaluate and to indicate the best option for project of expansion investment. To reach the considered objective the procedure method was used a case study, having as unit of case the Resort Praia Hotel do Litoral Norte of Salvador. This study was developed of the following form: first it identified the traditional net value present and later it was incorporated the volatileness of each analyzed uncertainty. Second, as the real options are analogous to the financial options, it was necessary to identify elements that composed the terminologies of the financial options with intention to get the value of the real option. For this model of options pricing of Black & Scholes jointly with a computational simulator was used (SLS to get the expanded net value present. As a result of this study it was possible to evidence that using the traditional tool of capital budget Net Value Present (VPL is negative, therefore the project of expansion of the Hotel would be rejected. While for the application of methodology TOR the project presents positive Expanded Present Value which would represent an excellent chance of investment. Key-word: Capital budget, Real options, Analysis of investments.

  14. A Simulation-Based Evaluation of Premovement Active Surveillance Protocol Options for the Managed Movement of Turkeys to Slaughter During an Outbreak of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza in the United States.

    Todd Weaver, J; Malladi, Sasidhar; Bonney, Peter J; Patyk, Kelly A; Bergeron, Justin G; Middleton, Jamie L; Alexander, Catherine Y; Goldsmith, Timothy J; Halvorson, David A

    2016-05-01

    Risk management decisions associated with live poultry movement during a highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) outbreak should be carefully considered. Live turkey movements may pose a risk for disease spread. On the other hand, interruptions in scheduled movements can disrupt business continuity. The Secure Turkey Supply (STS) Plan was developed through an industry-government-academic collaboration to address business continuity concerns that might arise during a HPAI outbreak. STS stakeholders proposed outbreak response measure options that were evaluated through risk assessment. The developed approach relies on 1) diagnostic testing of two pooled samples of swabs taken from dead turkeys immediately before movement via the influenza A matrix gene real-time reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (rRT-PCR) test; 2) enhanced biosecurity measures in combination with a premovement isolation period (PMIP), restricting movement onto the premises for a few days before movement to slaughter; and 3) incorporation of a distance factor from known infected flocks such that exposure via local area spread is unlikely. Daily exposure likelihood estimates from spatial kernels from past HPAI outbreaks were coupled with simulation models of disease spread and active surveillance to evaluate active surveillance protocol options that differ with respect to the number of swabs per pooled sample and the timing of the tests in relation to movement. Simulation model results indicate that active surveillance testing, in combination with strict biosecurity, substantially increased HPAI virus detection probability. When distance from a known infected flock was considered, the overall combined likelihood of moving an infected, undetected turkey flock to slaughter was predicted to be lower at 3 and 5 km. The analysis of different active surveillance protocol options is designed to incorporate flexibility into HPAI emergency response plans.

  15. Guidance on methodology for evaluation of the effectiveness of options for reducing the risk of introduction and spread of organisms harmful to plant health in the EU territory

    Baker, R.; Candresse, T.; Dormannsné Simon, E.

    2012-01-01

    The European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) requested the Panel on Plant Health (PLH Panel) to provide guidance for the evaluation of the effectiveness of the options for plants and plant products for reducing the risk of introduction and spread of harmful organisms in the European Union territory...... and guidance documents for assessing a proposed RRO. In addition, the current document provides recommendations for assessing RROs, specifically: on experimental design; on the use of statistical methods including approaches for studying uncertainty; on the use of quantitative pathway analysis and spread...

  16. Documentation of a restart option for the U.S. Geological Survey coupled Groundwater and Surface-Water Flow (GSFLOW) model

    Regan, R. Steve; Niswonger, Richard G.; Markstrom, Steven L.; Barlow, Paul M.

    2015-10-02

    A new option to write and read antecedent conditions (also referred to as initial conditions) has been developed for the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Groundwater and Surface-Water Flow (GSFLOW) numerical, hydrologic simulation code. GSFLOW is an integration of the USGS Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) and USGS Modular Groundwater-Flow Model (MODFLOW), and provides three simulation modes: MODFLOW-only, PRMS-only, and GSFLOW (or coupled). The new capability, referred to as the restart option, can be used for all three simulation modes, such that the results from a pair (or set) of spin-up and restart simulations are nearly identical to results produced from a continuous simulation for the same time period. The restart option writes all results to files at the end of a spin-up simulation that are required to initialize a subsequent restart simulation. Previous versions of GSFLOW have had some capability to save model results for use as antecedent condiitions in subsequent simulations; however, the existing capabilities were not comprehensive or easy to use. The new restart option supersedes the previous methods. The restart option was developed in collaboration with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Weather Service as part of the Integrated Water Resources Science and Services Partnership. The primary focus for the development of the restart option was to support medium-range (7- to 14-day) forecasts of low streamflow conditions made by the National Weather Service for critical water-supply basins in which groundwater plays an important role.

  17. Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Options in ISEEM Global Energy Model: 2010-2050 Scenario Analysis for Least-Cost Carbon Reduction in Iron and Steel Sector

    Karali, Nihan; Xu, Tengfang; Sathaye, Jayant

    2013-12-01

    The goal of the modeling work carried out in this project was to quantify long-term scenarios for the future emission reduction potentials in the iron and steel sector. The main focus of the project is to examine the impacts of carbon reduction options in the U.S. iron and steel sector under a set of selected scenarios. In order to advance the understanding of carbon emission reduction potential on the national and global scales, and to evaluate the regional impacts of potential U.S. mitigation strategies (e.g., commodity and carbon trading), we also included and examined the carbon reduction scenarios in China’s and India’s iron and steel sectors in this project. For this purpose, a new bottom-up energy modeling framework, the Industrial Sector Energy Efficiency Modeling (ISEEM), (Karali et al. 2012) was used to provide detailed annual projections starting from 2010 through 2050. We used the ISEEM modeling framework to carry out detailed analysis, on a country-by-country basis, for the U.S., China’s, and India’s iron and steel sectors. The ISEEM model applicable to iron and steel section, called ISEEM-IS, is developed to estimate and evaluate carbon emissions scenarios under several alternative mitigation options - including policies (e.g., carbon caps), commodity trading, and carbon trading. The projections will help us to better understand emission reduction potentials with technological and economic implications. The database for input of ISEEM-IS model consists of data and information compiled from various resources such as World Steel Association (WSA), the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), China Steel Year Books, India Bureau of Mines (IBM), Energy Information Administration (EIA), and recent LBNL studies on bottom-up techno-economic analysis of energy efficiency measures in the iron and steel sector of the U.S., China, and India, including long-term steel production in China. In the ISEEM-IS model, production technology and manufacturing details are

  18. Mixed waste management options

    Owens, C.B.; Kirner, N.P.

    1992-01-01

    Currently, limited storage and treatment capacity exists for commercial mixed waste streams. No commercial mixed waste disposal is available, and it has been estimated that if and when commercial mixed waste disposal becomes available, the costs will be high. If high disposal fees are imposed, generators may be willing to apply extraordinary treatment or regulatory approaches to properly dispose of their mixed waste. This paper explores the feasibility of several waste management scenarios and management options. Existing data on commercially generated mixed waste streams are used to identify the realm of mixed waste known to be generated. Each waste stream is evaluated from both a regulatory and technical perspective in order to convert the waste into a strictly low-level radioactive or a hazardous waste. Alternative regulatory approaches evaluated in this paper include a delisting petition) no migration petition) and a treatability variance. For each waste stream, potentially available treatment options are identified that could lead to these variances. Waste minimization methodology and storage for decay are also considered. Economic feasibility of each option is discussed broadly. Another option for mixed waste management that is being explored is the feasibility of Department of Energy (DOE) accepting commercial mixed waste for treatment, storage, and disposal. A study has been completed that analyzes DOE treatment capacity in comparison with commercial mixed waste streams. (author)

  19. Individual model evaluation and probabilistic weighting of models

    Atwood, C.L.

    1994-01-01

    This note stresses the importance of trying to assess the accuracy of each model individually. Putting a Bayesian probability distribution on a population of models faces conceptual and practical complications, and apparently can come only after the work of evaluating the individual models. Moreover, the primary issue is open-quotes How good is this modelclose quotes? Therefore, the individual evaluations are first in both chronology and importance. They are not easy, but some ideas are given here on how to perform them

  20. Evaluation of green house gas emissions models.

    2014-11-01

    The objective of the project is to evaluate the GHG emissions models used by transportation agencies and industry leaders. Factors in the vehicle : operating environment that may affect modal emissions, such as, external conditions, : vehicle fleet c...

  1. Evaluation of CASP8 model quality predictions

    Cozzetto, Domenico; Kryshtafovych, Andriy; Tramontano, Anna

    2009-01-01

    established a prediction category to evaluate their performance in 2006. In 2008 the experiment was repeated and its results are reported here. Participants were invited to infer the correctness of the protein models submitted by the registered automatic

  2. On a European collaboration to identify organizational models, potential shortcomings and improvement options in out-of-hours primary health care.

    Leutgeb, Ruediger; Walker, Nicola; Remmen, Roy; Klemenc-Ketis, Zalika; Szecsenyi, Joachim; Laux, Gunter

    2014-09-01

    Abstract Background: Out-of-hours care (OOHC) provision is an increasingly challenging aspect in the delivery of primary health care services. Although many European countries have implemented organizational models for out-of-hours primary care, which has been traditionally delivered by general practitioners, health care providers throughout Europe are still looking to resolve current challenges in OOHC. It is within this context that the European Research Network for Out-of-Hours Primary Health Care (EurOOHnet) was established in 2010 to investigate the provision of out-of-hours care across European countries, which have diverse political and health care systems. In this paper, we report on the EurOOHnet work related to OOHC organizational models, potential shortcomings and improvement options in out-of-hours primary health care. Needs assessment: The EurOOHnet expert working party proposed that models for OOHC should be reviewed to evaluate the availability and accessibility of OOHC for patients while also seeking ways to make the delivery of care more satisfying for service providers. To move towards resolution of OOHC challenges in primary care, as the first stage, the EurOOHnet expert working party identified the following key needs: clear and uniform definitions of the different OOHC models between different countries; adequate-ideally transnational-definitions of urgency levels and corresponding data; and educational programmes for nurses and doctors (e.g. in the use of a standardized triage system for OOHC). Finally, the need for a modern system of data transfer between different health care providers in regular care and providers in OOHC to prevent information loss was identified.

  3. Cost-Effectiveness Model for Chemoimmunotherapy Options in Patients with Previously Untreated Chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia Unsuitable for Full-Dose Fludarabine-Based Therapy.

    Becker, Ursula; Briggs, Andrew H; Moreno, Santiago G; Ray, Joshua A; Ngo, Phuong; Samanta, Kunal

    2016-06-01

    To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of treatment with anti-CD20 monoclonal antibody obinutuzumab plus chlorambucil (GClb) in untreated patients with chronic lymphocytic leukemia unsuitable for full-dose fludarabine-based therapy. A Markov model was used to assess the cost-effectiveness of GClb versus other chemoimmunotherapy options. The model comprised three mutually exclusive health states: "progression-free survival (with/without therapy)", "progression (refractory/relapsed lines)", and "death". Each state was assigned a health utility value representing patients' quality of life and a specific cost value. Comparisons between GClb and rituximab plus chlorambucil or only chlorambucil were performed using patient-level clinical trial data; other comparisons were performed via a network meta-analysis using information gathered in a systematic literature review. To support the model, a utility elicitation study was conducted from the perspective of the UK National Health Service. There was good agreement between the model-predicted progression-free and overall survival and that from the CLL11 trial. On incorporating data from the indirect treatment comparisons, it was found that GClb was cost-effective with a range of incremental cost-effectiveness ratios below a threshold of £30,000 per quality-adjusted life-year gained, and remained so during deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses under various scenarios. GClb was estimated to increase both quality-adjusted life expectancy and treatment costs compared with several commonly used therapies, with incremental cost-effectiveness ratios below commonly referenced UK thresholds. This article offers a real example of how to combine direct and indirect evidence in a cost-effectiveness analysis of oncology drugs. Copyright © 2016 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Metrics for Evaluation of Student Models

    Pelanek, Radek

    2015-01-01

    Researchers use many different metrics for evaluation of performance of student models. The aim of this paper is to provide an overview of commonly used metrics, to discuss properties, advantages, and disadvantages of different metrics, to summarize current practice in educational data mining, and to provide guidance for evaluation of student…

  5. Evaluating the Impact of Zimbabwe's Prevention of Mother-to-Child HIV Transmission Program: Population-Level Estimates of HIV-Free Infant Survival Pre-Option A.

    Buzdugan, Raluca; McCoy, Sandra I; Watadzaushe, Constancia; Kang Dufour, Mi-Suk; Petersen, Maya; Dirawo, Jeffrey; Mushavi, Angela; Mujuru, Hilda Angela; Mahomva, Agnes; Musarandega, Reuben; Hakobyan, Anna; Mugurungi, Owen; Cowan, Frances M; Padian, Nancy S

    2015-01-01

    We estimated HIV-free infant survival and mother-to-child HIV transmission (MTCT) rates in Zimbabwe, some of the first community-based estimates from a UNAIDS priority country. In 2012 we surveyed mother-infant pairs residing in the catchment areas of 157 health facilities randomly selected from 5 of 10 provinces in Zimbabwe. Enrolled infants were born 9-18 months before the survey. We collected questionnaires, blood samples for HIV testing, and verbal autopsies for deceased mothers/infants. Estimates were assessed among i) all HIV-exposed infants, as part of an impact evaluation of Option A of the 2010 WHO guidelines (rolled out in Zimbabwe in 2011), and ii) the subgroup of infants unexposed to Option A. We compared province-level MTCT rates measured among women in the community with MTCT rates measured using program monitoring data from facilities serving those communities. Among 8568 women with known HIV serostatus, 1107 (12.9%) were HIV-infected. Among all HIV-exposed infants, HIV-free infant survival was 90.9% (95% confidence interval (CI): 88.7-92.7) and MTCT was 8.8% (95% CI: 6.9-11.1). Sixty-six percent of HIV-exposed infants were still breastfeeding. Among the 762 infants born before Option A was implemented, 90.5% (95% CI: 88.1-92.5) were alive and HIV-uninfected at 9-18 months of age, and 9.1% (95%CI: 7.1-11.7) were HIV-infected. In four provinces, the community-based MTCT rate was higher than the facility-based MTCT rate. In Harare, the community and facility-based rates were 6.0% and 9.1%, respectively. By 2012 Zimbabwe had made substantial progress towards the elimination of MTCT. Our HIV-free infant survival and MTCT estimates capture HIV transmissions during pregnancy, delivery and breastfeeding regardless of whether or not mothers accessed health services. These estimates also provide a baseline against which to measure the impact of Option A guidelines (and subsequently Option B+).

  6. Multi-stage IT project evaluation: The flexibility value obtained by implementing and resolving Berk, Green and Naik (2004) model

    Abid, Fathi; Guermazi, Dorra

    2009-11-01

    In this paper, we evaluate a multi-stage information technology investment project, by implementing and resolving Berk, Green and Naik's (2004) model, which takes into account specific features of IT projects and considers the real option to suspend investment at each stage. We present a particular case of the model where the project value is the solution of an optimal control problem with a single state variable. In this case, the model is more intuitive and tractable. The case study confirms the practical potential of the model and highlights the importance of the real-option approach compared to classical discounted cash flow techniques in the valuation of IT projects.

  7. The Business Model Evaluation Tool for Smart Cities: Application to SmartSantander Use Cases

    Raimundo Díaz-Díaz

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available New technologies open up the door to multiple business models applied to public services in smart cities. However, there is not a commonly adopted methodology for evaluating business models in smart cities that can help both practitioners and researchers to choose the best option. This paper addresses this gap introducing the Business Model Evaluation Tool for Smart Cities. This methodology is a simple, organized, flexible and the transparent system that facilitates the work of the evaluators of potential business models. It is useful to compare two or more business models and take strategic decisions promptly. The method is part of a previous process of content analysis and it is based on the widely utilized Business Model Canvas. The evaluation method has been assessed by 11 experts and, subsequently it has been validated applying it to the case studies of Santander’s waste management and street lighting systems, which take advantage of innovative technologies commonly used in smart cities.

  8. The green electricity market model. Proposal for an optional, cost-neutral direct marketing model for supplying electricity customers

    Heinemann, Ronald

    2014-01-01

    One of the main goals of the Renewable Energy Law (EEG) is the market integration of renewable energy resources. For this purpose it has introduced compulsory direct marketing on the basis of a moving market premium. At the same time the green electricity privilege, a regulation which made it possible for customers to be supplied with electricity from EEG plants, has been abolished without substitution with effect from 1 August 2014. This means that, aside from other direct marketing channels, which will not be economically viable save for in a few exceptional cases, it will no longer be possible in future to sell electricity from EEG plants to electricity customers under the designation ''electricity from renewable energy''. The reason for this is that electricity sold under the market premium model can no longer justifiably be said to originate from renewable energy. As a consequence, almost all green electricity products sold in Germany carry a foreign green electricity certificate.

  9. An evaluation of BPMN modeling tools

    Yan, Z.; Reijers, H.A.; Dijkman, R.M.; Mendling, J.; Weidlich, M.

    2010-01-01

    Various BPMN modeling tools are available and it is close to impossible to understand their functional differences without simply trying them out. This paper presents an evaluation framework and presents the outcomes of its application to a set of five BPMN modeling tools. We report on various

  10. Option price and market instability

    Baaquie, Belal E.; Yu, Miao

    2017-04-01

    An option pricing formula, for which the price of an option depends on both the value of the underlying security as well as the velocity of the security, has been proposed in Baaquie and Yang (2014). The FX (foreign exchange) options price was empirically studied in Baaquie et al., (2014), and it was found that the model in general provides an excellent fit for all strike prices with a fixed model parameters-unlike the Black-Scholes option price Hull and White (1987) that requires the empirically determined implied volatility surface to fit the option data. The option price proposed in Baaquie and Cao Yang (2014) did not fit the data during the crisis of 2007-2008. We make a hypothesis that the failure of the option price to fit data is an indication of the market's large deviation from its near equilibrium behavior due to the market's instability. Furthermore, our indicator of market's instability is shown to be more accurate than the option's observed volatility. The market prices of the FX option for various currencies are studied in the light of our hypothesis.

  11. Modeling, Simulation and Performance Evaluation of Parabolic Trough

    Mekuannint

    Heat Transfer Fluid (HTF); TRNSYS power plant model; STEC library; Solar Advisor Model (SAM);. TRNSYS solar field model; Solar Electric. Generation System (SEGS). INTRODUCTION. Parabolic troughs are currently most used means of power generation option of solar sources. Solar electric generation systems (SEGs) ...

  12. Evaluation of constitutive models for crushed salt

    Callahan, G.D.; Loken, M.C.; Hurtado, L.D.; Hansen, F.D.

    1996-01-01

    Three constitutive models are recommended as candidates for describing the deformation of crushed salt. These models are generalized to three-dimensional states of stress to include the effects of mean and deviatoric stress and modified to include effects of temperature, grain size, and moisture content. A database including hydrostatic consolidation and shear consolidation tests conducted on Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) and southeastern New Mexico salt is used to determine material parameters for the models. To evaluate the capability of the models, parameter values obtained from fitting the complete database are used to predict the individual tests. Finite element calculations of a WIPP shaft with emplaced crushed salt demonstrate the model predictions

  13. Option Pricing using Realized Volatility

    Stentoft, Lars Peter

    dynamics to be used for option pricing purposes in this framework, and we show that our model explains some of the mispricings found when using traditional option pricing models based on interdaily data. We then show explicitly that a Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedastic model with Normal...... Inverse Gaussian distributed innovations is the corresponding benchmark model when only daily data is used. Finally, we perform an empirical analysis using stock options for three large American companies, and we show that in all cases our model performs significantly better than the corresponding...... benchmark model estimated on return data alone. Hence the paper provides evidence on the value of using high frequency data for option pricing purposes....

  14. Modeling for Green Supply Chain Evaluation

    Elham Falatoonitoosi

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Green supply chain management (GSCM has become a practical approach to develop environmental performance. Under strict regulations and stakeholder pressures, enterprises need to enhance and improve GSCM practices, which are influenced by both traditional and green factors. This study developed a causal evaluation model to guide selection of qualified suppliers by prioritizing various criteria and mapping causal relationships to find effective criteria to improve green supply chain. The aim of the case study was to model and examine the influential and important main GSCM practices, namely, green logistics, organizational performance, green organizational activities, environmental protection, and green supplier evaluation. In the case study, decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory technique is applied to test the developed model. The result of the case study shows only “green supplier evaluation” and “green organizational activities” criteria of the model are in the cause group and the other criteria are in the effect group.

  15. Systematic evaluation of options to avoid generation of noncertifiable transuranic (TRU) waste at Los Alamos National Laboratory

    Boak, J.M.; Kosiewicz, S.T.; Triay, I.; Gruetzmacher, K.; Montoya, A.

    1998-03-01

    At present, >35% of the volume of newly generated transuranic (TRU) waste at Los Alamos National Laboratory is not certifiable for transport to the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP). Noncertifiable waste would constitute 900--1,000 m 3 of the 2,600 m 3 of waste projected during the period of the Environmental Management (EM) Accelerated Cleanup: Focus on 2006 plan (DOE, 1997). Volume expansion of this waste to meet thermal limits would increase the shipped volume to ∼5,400 m 3 . This paper presents the results of efforts to define which TRU waste streams are noncertifiable at Los Alamos, and to prioritize site-specific options to reduce the volume of certifiable waste over the period of the EM Accelerated Cleanup Plan. A team of Los Alamos TRU waste generators and waste managers reviewed historic generation rates and thermal loads and current practices to estimate the projected volume and thermal load of TRU waste streams for Fiscal Years 1999--2006. These data defined four major problem TRU waste streams. Estimates were also made of the volume expansion that would be required to meet the permissible wattages for all waste. The four waste streams defined were: (1) 238 Pu-contaminated combustible waste from production of Radioactive Thermoelectric Generators (RTGs) with 238 Pu activity which exceeds allowable shipping limits by 10--100X. (2) 241 Am-contaminated cement waste from plutonium recovery processes (nitric and hydrochloric acid recovery) are estimated to exceed thermal limits by ∼3X. (3) 239 Pu-contaminated combustible waste, mainly organic waste materials contaminated with 239 Pu and 241 Am, is estimated to exceed thermal load requirements by a factor of ∼2X. (4) Oversized metal waste objects, (especially gloveboxes), cannot be shipped as is to WIPP because they will not fit in a standard waste box or drum

  16. Investing in Marine Scrubber under Uncertainty with Real Option Thinking

    Jiang, Liping; Hansen, Carsten Ørts

    works that examine the economic feasibility of scrubber retrofitting through the net present value rule, this paper applies the Real Option Analysis to find the optimal investment strategies. The proposed decision-making framework addresses the uncertainty and the value of deferral option embedded...... in the scrubber investment. The multiple sources of investment uncertainties are explicitly analyzed and integrated in the modeling by using Rainbow option. The results demonstrate that the value of the scrubber investment has significantly increased for several cases by considering the deferral option....... It is thus important for ship owners to consider the available options before proceeding with abandoning or investing strategy. The proposed framework can be widely applied to other ship retrofitting investment evaluations, which include similar investment alternatives and uncertainties....

  17. Evaluation of some energy options for the replacement of wood in cooking food in the Region Alto Patia

    Santacruz, Carlos A; Macia, Andres F

    2006-01-01

    In the present article an environmental evaluation appears financier and social of the different power solutions for the substitution from the wood in the food baking. First begins to describe the region of the Alto Patia, soon the objective population defines, this is village the San Juanito, in addition and they define the evaluation criteria the propose technologies that are: Solar, Electric, coal, gas and finally it is selected most suitable for this region.

  18. Conceptual modelling of human resource evaluation process

    Negoiţă Doina Olivia

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Taking into account the highly diverse tasks which employees have to fulfil due to complex requirements of nowadays consumers, the human resource within an enterprise has become a strategic element for developing and exploiting products which meet the market expectations. Therefore, organizations encounter difficulties when approaching the human resource evaluation process. Hence, the aim of the current paper is to design a conceptual model of the aforementioned process, which allows the enterprises to develop a specific methodology. In order to design the conceptual model, Business Process Modelling instruments were employed - Adonis Community Edition Business Process Management Toolkit using the ADONIS BPMS Notation. The conceptual model was developed based on an in-depth secondary research regarding the human resource evaluation process. The proposed conceptual model represents a generic workflow (sequential and/ or simultaneously activities, which can be extended considering the enterprise’s needs regarding their requirements when conducting a human resource evaluation process. Enterprises can benefit from using software instruments for business process modelling as they enable process analysis and evaluation (predefined / specific queries and also model optimization (simulations.

  19. A website evaluation model by integration of previous evaluation models using a quantitative approach

    Ali Moeini

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Regarding the ecommerce growth, websites play an essential role in business success. Therefore, many authors have offered website evaluation models since 1995. Although, the multiplicity and diversity of evaluation models make it difficult to integrate them into a single comprehensive model. In this paper a quantitative method has been used to integrate previous models into a comprehensive model that is compatible with them. In this approach the researcher judgment has no role in integration of models and the new model takes its validity from 93 previous models and systematic quantitative approach.

  20. Use of Bayesian Estimates to determine the Volatility Parameter Input in the Black-Scholes and Binomial Option Pricing Models

    Shu Wing Ho

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available The valuation of options and many other derivative instruments requires an estimation of exante or forward looking volatility. This paper adopts a Bayesian approach to estimate stock price volatility. We find evidence that overall Bayesian volatility estimates more closely approximate the implied volatility of stocks derived from traded call and put options prices compared to historical volatility estimates sourced from IVolatility.com (“IVolatility”. Our evidence suggests use of the Bayesian approach to estimate volatility can provide a more accurate measure of ex-ante stock price volatility and will be useful in the pricing of derivative securities where the implied stock price volatility cannot be observed.

  1. Evaluating Extensions to Coherent Mortality Forecasting Models

    Syazreen Shair

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Coherent models were developed recently to forecast the mortality of two or more sub-populations simultaneously and to ensure long-term non-divergent mortality forecasts of sub-populations. This paper evaluates the forecast accuracy of two recently-published coherent mortality models, the Poisson common factor and the product-ratio functional models. These models are compared to each other and the corresponding independent models, as well as the original Lee–Carter model. All models are applied to age-gender-specific mortality data for Australia and Malaysia and age-gender-ethnicity-specific data for Malaysia. The out-of-sample forecast error of log death rates, male-to-female death rate ratios and life expectancy at birth from each model are compared and examined across groups. The results show that, in terms of overall accuracy, the forecasts of both coherent models are consistently more accurate than those of the independent models for Australia and for Malaysia, but the relative performance differs by forecast horizon. Although the product-ratio functional model outperforms the Poisson common factor model for Australia, the Poisson common factor is more accurate for Malaysia. For the ethnic groups application, ethnic-coherence gives better results than gender-coherence. The results provide evidence that coherent models are preferable to independent models for forecasting sub-populations’ mortality.

  2. Multi-criteria evaluation of hydrological models

    Rakovec, Oldrich; Clark, Martyn; Weerts, Albrecht; Hill, Mary; Teuling, Ryan; Uijlenhoet, Remko

    2013-04-01

    Over the last years, there is a tendency in the hydrological community to move from the simple conceptual models towards more complex, physically/process-based hydrological models. This is because conceptual models often fail to simulate the dynamics of the observations. However, there is little agreement on how much complexity needs to be considered within the complex process-based models. One way to proceed to is to improve understanding of what is important and unimportant in the models considered. The aim of this ongoing study is to evaluate structural model adequacy using alternative conceptual and process-based models of hydrological systems, with an emphasis on understanding how model complexity relates to observed hydrological processes. Some of the models require considerable execution time and the computationally frugal sensitivity analysis, model calibration and uncertainty quantification methods are well-suited to providing important insights for models with lengthy execution times. The current experiment evaluates two version of the Framework for Understanding Structural Errors (FUSE), which both enable running model inter-comparison experiments. One supports computationally efficient conceptual models, and the second supports more-process-based models that tend to have longer execution times. The conceptual FUSE combines components of 4 existing conceptual hydrological models. The process-based framework consists of different forms of Richard's equations, numerical solutions, groundwater parameterizations and hydraulic conductivity distribution. The hydrological analysis of the model processes has evolved from focusing only on simulated runoff (final model output), to also including other criteria such as soil moisture and groundwater levels. Parameter importance and associated structural importance are evaluated using different types of sensitivity analyses techniques, making use of both robust global methods (e.g. Sobol') as well as several

  3. Application of DOE prescribed guides to the evaluation of Hanford's Mixed Low Level Solid Waste Treatment Options

    Campbell, B.F.; Nash, C.R.

    1994-10-01

    A recent Westinghouse Hanford Company report (WHC-SD-W100-ES-008, February, 1994), compared a Vitrification process to the WRAP-2A Grout/PE process for the treatment of Mixed Low Level Waste (MLLW). This comparison applied a limited scope numerical evaluation to compare technology complexity of the two processes, but focused primarily on capital and operating costs. The work reported here is supplementary to WHC-SD-Wl00-ES-008. It provides a record of the application of the more formal DOE-prescribed criteria (Treatment Selection Guides for Federal Facility Compliance Act Draft Site Treatment Plans) to the Vitrification and Grout/PE processes previously evaluated. Results of the evaluation favored the Grout/PE process by a weighted score of 83 to 78 over the Plasma arc vitrification process

  4. Saphire models and software for ASP evaluations

    Sattison, M.B.

    1997-01-01

    The Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL) over the three years has created 75 plant-specific Accident Sequence Precursor (ASP) models using the SAPHIRE suite of PRA codes. Along with the new models, the INEL has also developed a new module for SAPHIRE which is tailored specifically to the unique needs of ASP evaluations. These models and software will be the next generation of risk tools for the evaluation of accident precursors by both the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission's (NRC's) Office of Nuclear Reactor Regulation (NRR) and the Office for Analysis and Evaluation of Operational Data (AEOD). This paper presents an overview of the models and software. Key characteristics include: (1) classification of the plant models according to plant response with a unique set of event trees for each plant class, (2) plant-specific fault trees using supercomponents, (3) generation and retention of all system and sequence cutsets, (4) full flexibility in modifying logic, regenerating cutsets, and requantifying results, and (5) user interface for streamlined evaluation of ASP events. Future plans for the ASP models is also presented

  5. Modeling Energy and Development : An Evaluation of Models and Concepts

    Ruijven, Bas van; Urban, Frauke; Benders, René M.J.; Moll, Henri C.; Sluijs, Jeroen P. van der; Vries, Bert de; Vuuren, Detlef P. van

    2008-01-01

    Most global energy models are developed by institutes from developed countries focusing primarily oil issues that are important in industrialized countries. Evaluation of the results for Asia of the IPCC/SRES models shows that broad concepts of energy and development. the energy ladder and the

  6. Evaluating Predictive Uncertainty of Hyporheic Exchange Modelling

    Chow, R.; Bennett, J.; Dugge, J.; Wöhling, T.; Nowak, W.

    2017-12-01

    Hyporheic exchange is the interaction of water between rivers and groundwater, and is difficult to predict. One of the largest contributions to predictive uncertainty for hyporheic fluxes have been attributed to the representation of heterogeneous subsurface properties. This research aims to evaluate which aspect of the subsurface representation - the spatial distribution of hydrofacies or the model for local-scale (within-facies) heterogeneity - most influences the predictive uncertainty. Also, we seek to identify data types that help reduce this uncertainty best. For this investigation, we conduct a modelling study of the Steinlach River meander, in Southwest Germany. The Steinlach River meander is an experimental site established in 2010 to monitor hyporheic exchange at the meander scale. We use HydroGeoSphere, a fully integrated surface water-groundwater model, to model hyporheic exchange and to assess the predictive uncertainty of hyporheic exchange transit times (HETT). A highly parameterized complex model is built and treated as `virtual reality', which is in turn modelled with simpler subsurface parameterization schemes (Figure). Then, we conduct Monte-Carlo simulations with these models to estimate the predictive uncertainty. Results indicate that: Uncertainty in HETT is relatively small for early times and increases with transit times. Uncertainty from local-scale heterogeneity is negligible compared to uncertainty in the hydrofacies distribution. Introducing more data to a poor model structure may reduce predictive variance, but does not reduce predictive bias. Hydraulic head observations alone cannot constrain the uncertainty of HETT, however an estimate of hyporheic exchange flux proves to be more effective at reducing this uncertainty. Figure: Approach for evaluating predictive model uncertainty. A conceptual model is first developed from the field investigations. A complex model (`virtual reality') is then developed based on that conceptual model

  7. Assessing the Impact of Sustainability Improvement Options on the Agri-food Supply Chain Governance Structures: Development of an Evaluation Tool

    Cosimo Rota

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available The competitiveness of a supply chain is driven by the ability of supply chain governance structures to adapt to the chains’ continuously changing technical and organizational characteristics. The present study addresses the adoption of sustainability improvement options in the area of organization and management in the agri-food sector; within this framework the study proposes a tool for assessing the impact of sustainability oriented processes on the supply chain governance structures, in turn influencing the competitiveness of the supply chain. Two different approaches, proposed by (Gereffi et al., 2005 and (Hobbs and Young, 2000 have been linked to provide a theoretical framework for the tool development. The proposed new conceptual framework links the dimensions defining five different governance structures complexity of transaction, ability to codify and capabilities in the supply-base (Gereffi et al., to the product characteristics, regulatory and technology aspects defined by Hobbs and Young as drivers influencing the vertical coordination of supply chains. The method suggested for measuring the relations between improvement options and the chain governance structure is the adoption of experts’ evaluations. This method improves the tool capacity to provide a context-related supply chain governance structure assessment and management.

  8. Dynamique jointe stock/option et application aux stratégies de trading sur options

    El Aoud , Sofiene

    2015-01-01

    This thesis explores theoretically and empirically the implications of the stock/option joint dynamics on applications related to option trading. In the first part of the thesis, we look into the relations between stock options and index options under the risk-neutral measure. The Capital Asset Pricing Model offers an adequate mathematical framework for this study as it provides a modeling approach for the joint dynamics between the stock and the index. As we compute option prices according t...

  9. A chromate-contaminated site in southern Switzerland – Part 2: Reactive transport modeling to optimize remediation options

    Wanner, Christoph; Eggenberger, Urs; Mäder, Urs

    2012-01-01

    A 2D horizontal reactive transport model of a chromate-contaminated site near Rivera, Switzerland, was developed using the computer code CrunchFlow to evaluate site remediation strategies. Transport processes were defined according to the results of an existing hydrological model, and the definition of geochemical (reactive) processes is based on the results of a detailed mineralogical and geochemical site characterization leading to a comprehensive conceptual site model. Kinetics of naturally occurring Cr(VI) reduction by Fe(II) and natural solid organic matter is quantified by fitting measured Cr isotope ratios to a modeled 1D section along the best constrained flow line. The simulation of Cr isotope fractionation was also incorporated into the 2D model. Simulation of the measured present day Cr(VI) plume and δ 53 Cr value distribution was used for the 2D model calibration and corresponds to a situation where only monitored natural attenuation (MNA) is occurring. Other 2D model runs simulate alternate excavation scenarios. The simulations show that with an excavation of the top 2–4 m the groundwater Cr(VI) plume can be minimized, and that a deeper excavation depth only diminishes the plume if all the contaminants can be removed. A combination of an excavation of the top 2–4 m and monitoring of the ongoing natural Cr(VI) reduction is suggested as the most ecological and economical remediation strategy, even though a remaining time period with ongoing subsoil Cr(VI) contamination in the order of 1 ka is predicted.

  10. Option Pricing with a Levy-Type Stochastic Dynamic Model for Stock Price Process Under Semi-Markovian Structural Perturbations

    2015-11-30

    models ( Beckers 1980, Dupire 1997), the volatility depends on time and stock price through a deterministic func- tional. In both cases, in addition to...T1 ≤ T2 ≤ · · · ≤ Tn−1 are the regime switch- ing times caused by the semi-Markov process prior to t. For notational convenience, we denote θ−1 = θ0...of interest are currently being investigated: (1) an evaluation of the effects of the backward recurrence time, the sojourn time distribution and the

  11. CRITICAL ANALYSIS OF EVALUATION MODEL LOMCE

    José Luis Bernal Agudo

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The evaluation model that the LOMCE projects sinks its roots into the neoliberal beliefs, reflecting a specific way of understanding the world. What matters is not the process but the results, being the evaluation the center of the education-learning processes. It presents an evil planning, since the theory that justifies the model doesn’t specify upon coherent proposals, where there is an excessive worry for excellence and diversity is left out. A comprehensive way of understanding education should be recovered.

  12. Study on team evaluation. Team process model for team evaluation

    Sasou Kunihide; Ebisu, Mitsuhiro; Hirose, Ayako

    2004-01-01

    Several studies have been done to evaluate or improve team performance in nuclear and aviation industries. Crew resource management is the typical example. In addition, team evaluation recently gathers interests in other teams of lawyers, medical staff, accountants, psychiatrics, executive, etc. However, the most evaluation methods focus on the results of team behavior that can be observed through training or actual business situations. What is expected team is not only resolving problems but also training younger members being destined to lead the next generation. Therefore, the authors set the final goal of this study establishing a series of methods to evaluate and improve teams inclusively such as decision making, motivation, staffing, etc. As the first step, this study develops team process model describing viewpoints for the evaluation. The team process is defined as some kinds of power that activate or inactivate competency of individuals that is the components of team's competency. To find the team process, the authors discussed the merits of team behavior with the experienced training instructors and shift supervisors of nuclear/thermal power plants. The discussion finds four team merits and many components to realize those team merits. Classifying those components into eight groups of team processes such as 'Orientation', 'Decision Making', 'Power and Responsibility', 'Workload Management', 'Professional Trust', 'Motivation', 'Training' and 'staffing', the authors propose Team Process Model with two to four sub processes in each team process. In the future, the authors will develop methods to evaluate some of the team processes for nuclear/thermal power plant operation teams. (author)

  13. Option Pricing with Stochastic Volatility and Jump Diffusion Processes

    Radu Lupu

    2006-03-01

    Full Text Available Option pricing by the use of Black Scholes Merton (BSM model is based on the assumption that asset prices have a lognormal distribution. In spite of the use of these models on a large scale, both by practioners and academics, the assumption of lognormality is rejected by the history of returns. The objective of this article is to present the methods that developed after the Black Scholes Merton environment and deals with the option pricing model adjustment to the empirical properties of asset returns. The main models that appeared after BSM allowed for special changes of the returns that materialized in jump-diffusion and stochastic volatility processes. The article presents the foundations of risk neutral options evaluation and the empirical evidence that fed the amendment of the lognormal assumption in the first part and shows the evaluation procedure under the assumption of stock prices following the jump-diffusion process and the stochastic volatility process.

  14. Evaluation of Koontz Lake (North Indiana) Ecological Restoration Options - Comparison of Dredging and Aeration - and Broad Application to USACE Projects

    2018-01-01

    necessity of dredging, special water treatment, and maintenance of shipping and stream channels (Glassner-Shwayder 1993). Influxes of sediment have an...eutrophication, harmful algae, invasive plants, and shallowing due to accumulation of sediment and muck. A study was conducted to assist in evaluating... sediments . (The U.S. Army Engineer Research and Development Center does not endorse any specific products or brands). DISCLAIMER: The contents of this

  15. Design of Training Systems (DOTS) Project: Test and Evaluation of Phase II Models

    1976-04-01

    when the process being modeled is very much dependent upon human resoarces, precise requirement formulas are usually V unavailable. In this...mixed integer formulation options. The SGRR, in a sense, is an automiation of what is cu~rrently beinig donec men~tall y by instructors and trai ninrg nv...test and evaluation (T&E); information concerning CNETS LCDR R. J. Biersner Human Factors Analysis, N-214 AV 922-1392 CNTECHTRA CDR J. D. Davis

  16. Towards elimination of mother-to-child transmission of HIV: performance of different models of care for initiating lifelong antiretroviral therapy for pregnant women in Malawi (Option B+).

    van Lettow, Monique; Bedell, Richard; Mayuni, Isabell; Mateyu, Gabriel; Landes, Megan; Chan, Adrienne K; van Schoor, Vanessa; Beyene, Teferi; Harries, Anthony D; Chu, Stephen; Mganga, Andrew; van Oosterhout, Joep J

    2014-01-01

    Malawi introduced a new strategy to improve the effectiveness of prevention of mother-to-child HIV transmission (PMTCT), the Option B+ strategy. We aimed to (i) describe how Option B+ is provided in health facilities in the South East Zone in Malawi, identifying the diverse approaches to service organization (the "model of care") and (ii) explore associations between the "model of care" and health facility-level uptake and retention rates for pregnant women identified as HIV-positive at antenatal (ANC) clinics. A health facility survey was conducted in all facilities providing PMTCT/antiretroviral therapy (ART) services in six of Malawi's 28 districts to describe and compare Option B+ service delivery models. Associations of identified models with program performance were explored using facility cohort reports. Among 141 health facilities, four "models of care" were identified: A) facilities where newly identified HIV-positive women are initiated and followed on ART at the ANC clinic until delivery; B) facilities where newly identified HIV-positive women receive only the first dose of ART at the ANC clinic, and are referred to the ART clinic for follow-up; C) facilities where newly identified HIV-positive women are referred from ANC to the ART clinic for initiation and follow-up of ART; and D) facilities serving as ART referral sites (not providing ANC). The proportion of women tested for HIV during ANC was highest in facilities applying Model A and lowest in facilities applying Model B. The highest retention rates were reported in Model C and D facilities and lowest in Model B facilities. In multivariable analyses, health facility factors independently associated with uptake of HIV testing and counselling (HTC) in ANC were number of women per HTC counsellor, HIV test kit availability, and the "model of care" applied; factors independently associated with ART retention were district location, patient volume and the "model of care" applied. A large variety exists in

  17. Surgical treatment options following chemotherapy plus cetuximab or bevacizumab in metastatic colorectal cancer-central evaluation of FIRE-3.

    Modest, D P; Denecke, T; Pratschke, J; Ricard, I; Lang, H; Bemelmans, M; Becker, T; Rentsch, M; Seehofer, D; Bruns, C J; Gebauer, B; Modest, H I; Held, S; Folprecht, G; Heinemann, V; Neumann, U P

    2018-01-01

    The FIRE-3 trial investigated combination chemotherapy plus either cetuximab or bevacizumab in patients with untreated metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC) not scheduled for upfront surgery. We aimed to determine the number of patients who present with potentially resectable disease during systemic first-line therapy and to compare the findings with study reports concerning resections and outcome. This evaluation of 448 patients was performed as central review blinded for treatment, other reviewers' evaluations and conducted interventions. Resectability was defined if at least 50% of the reviewers recommended surgical-based intervention. Overall survival was assessed by Kaplan-Meier method. Resectability increased from 22% (97/448) at baseline before treatment to 53% (238/448) at best response (P < 0.001), compared with an actual secondary resection rate for metastases of 16% (72/448). At baseline (23% versus 20%) and best response (53% versus 53%), potential resectability of metastases in this molecular unselected population was similar in cetuximab-treated patients versus bevacizumab-treated patients and not limited to patients with one-organ disease. The actual resection rate of metastases was significantly associated with treatment setting (P = 0.02; university hospital versus hospital/practice). Overall survival was 51.3 months (95% confidence interval [CI] 35.9-66.7) in patients with resectable disease who received surgery, 30.8 months (95% CI 26.6-34.9) in patients with resectable disease without surgery and 18.6 months (95% CI 15.8-21.3) in patients with unresectable disease (P < 0.001). Our findings illustrate the potential for conversion to resectability in mCRC, certain reluctance towards metastatic resections in clinical practice and the need for pre-planned and continuous evaluation for metastatic resection in high-volume centres. CLINICALTRIALS. NCT00433927. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Using QMRAcatch - a stochastic hydrological water quality and infection risk model - to identify sustainable management options for long term drinking water resource planning

    Derx, J.; Demeter, K.; Schijven, J. F.; Sommer, R.; Zoufal-Hruza, C. M.; Kromp, H.; Farnleitner, A.; Blaschke, A. P.

    2017-12-01

    River water resources in urban environments play a critical role in sustaining human health and ecosystem services, as they are used for drinking water production, bathing and irrigation. In this study the hydrological water quality model QMRAcatch was used combined with measured concentrations of human enterovirus and human-associated genetic fecal markers. The study area is located at a river/floodplain area along the Danube which is used for drinking water production by river bank filtration and further disinfection. QMRAcatch was previously developed to support long term planning of water resources in accordance with a public infection protection target (Schijven et al., 2015). Derx et al. 2016 previously used QMRAcatch for evaluating the microbiological quality and required virus-reduction targets at the study area for the current and robust future "crisis" scenarios, i.e. for the complete failure of wastewater treatment plants and infection outbreaks. In contrast, the aim of this study was to elaborate future scenarios based on projected climate and population changes in collaboration with urban water managers. The identified scenarios until 2050 include increased wastewater discharge rates due to the projected urban population growth and more frequent storm and overflow events of urban sewer systems following forecasted changes in climate and hydrology. Based on the simulation results for the developed scenarios sustainable requirements of the drinking water treatment system for virus reductions were re-evaluated to achieve the health risk target. The model outcomes are used to guide practical and scientifically sound management options for long term water resource planning. This paper was supported by FWF (Vienna Doctoral Program on Water Resource Systems W1219-N22) and the GWRS project (Vienna Water) as part of the "(New) Danube-Lower Lobau Network Project" funded by the Government of Austria and Vienna, and the European Agricultural Fund for Rural

  19. Autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease and pain - a review of the disease from aetiology, evaluation, past surgical treatment options to current practice.

    Badani, K K; Hemal, A K; Menon, M

    2004-01-01

    Autosomal Dominant Polycystic Kidney Disease (ADPKD), often referred to as "adult" polycystic kidney disease, is one of the commonest hereditary disorders. It affects approximately 4 to 6 million individuals worldwide. The disease progresses to end-stage renal disease and it accounts for 10-15% of patients requiring dialysis in the United States. A comprehensive Medline search for aetiology, evaluation, screening, cellular biology, and treatment was utilized to locate, extract, and synthesize relevant data with respect to this topic. Special attention was focused on urologic literature and surgical textbooks regarding operative treatment of pain associated with ADPKD. Now, patients with ADPKD have more treatment options. More specifically, several therapeutic alternatives are now available for the management of pain in these patients. A recent review of literature supports the performance of open or laparoscopic cyst decortication procedures for control of pain and infection without the worry of causing further renal impairment in those with preserved renal function.

  20. Are Biodegradable Osteosyntheses Still an Option for Midface Trauma? Longitudinal Evaluation of Three Different PLA-Based Materials

    Andreas Kolk

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim was to evaluate three different biodegradable polylactic acid- (PLA- based osteosynthesis materials (OM. These OM (BioSorb, LactoSorb, and Delta were used in 64 patients of whom 55 (85.9% had fractures of the zygoma, five (7.8% in the LeFort II level, two of the frontal bone (3.1%, and two of the maxillary sinus wall (3.1%. In addition to routine follow-up (FU at 3, 6, and 12 months (m (T1, T2, and T3 all patients were finally evaluated at a mean FU after 14.1 m for minor (e.g., nerve disturbances, swelling, and pain and major (e.g., infections and occlusal disturbances complications. Out of all 64 patients 38 presented with complications; of these 28 were minor (43.8% and 10 major (15.6% resulting in an overall rate of 59.4%. Differences in minor complications regarding sensibility disturbance at T1 and T3 were statistically significant (P=0.04. Differences between the OM were not statistically significant. Apart from sufficient mechanical stability for clinical use of all tested OM complications mostly involved pain and swelling probably mainly related to the initial bulk reaction attributable to the drop of pH value during the degradation process. This paper includes a review of the current aspects of biodegradable OM.

  1. Evaluation and modelling of haul road dust palliatives

    Thompson, R.J.; Visser, A.T.

    2000-07-01

    Excessive dust generation from mine haul roads is a problem common to most surface coal mining operations. Optimal warning course material selection parameters reduce, but do not totally eliminate the potential to produce dust. For existing operations, which may not have optimally designed and maintained roads, the problem of identifying existing deficiencies, quantifying their impact and assigning priorities within the constraints of limited capital and manpower is problematic. This is reflected in the fact that most surface mine operators agree dust-free roads are desirable, but find it difficult to translate this into cost-effective betterment activities. This paper describes a dust palliative evaluation, management and costing strategy. Models are described which enable mines to assess the likely dustiness of their chosen wearing course materials as a function of surface loading of fines, traffic types and volume, together with various material parameters. These models are then combined with palliative suppression performance models to enable predictions to be made concerning the suppression- and cost-efficiency of various dust palliation options. 13 refs., 5 figs., 4 tabs.

  2. Evaluating Performances of Traffic Noise Models | Oyedepo ...

    Traffic noise in decibel dB(A) were measured at six locations using 407780A Integrating Sound Level Meter, while spot speed and traffic volume were collected with cine-camera. The predicted sound exposure level (SEL) was evaluated using Burgess, British and FWHA model. The average noise level obtained are 77.64 ...

  3. Performance Evaluation Model for Application Layer Firewalls.

    Xuan, Shichang; Yang, Wu; Dong, Hui; Zhang, Jiangchuan

    2016-01-01

    Application layer firewalls protect the trusted area network against information security risks. However, firewall performance may affect user experience. Therefore, performance analysis plays a significant role in the evaluation of application layer firewalls. This paper presents an analytic model of the application layer firewall, based on a system analysis to evaluate the capability of the firewall. In order to enable users to improve the performance of the application layer firewall with limited resources, resource allocation was evaluated to obtain the optimal resource allocation scheme in terms of throughput, delay, and packet loss rate. The proposed model employs the Erlangian queuing model to analyze the performance parameters of the system with regard to the three layers (network, transport, and application layers). Then, the analysis results of all the layers are combined to obtain the overall system performance indicators. A discrete event simulation method was used to evaluate the proposed model. Finally, limited service desk resources were allocated to obtain the values of the performance indicators under different resource allocation scenarios in order to determine the optimal allocation scheme. Under limited resource allocation, this scheme enables users to maximize the performance of the application layer firewall.

  4. Evaluation of Usability Utilizing Markov Models

    Penedo, Janaina Rodrigues; Diniz, Morganna; Ferreira, Simone Bacellar Leal; Silveira, Denis S.; Capra, Eliane

    2012-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to analyze the usability of a remote learning system in its initial development phase, using a quantitative usability evaluation method through Markov models. Design/methodology/approach: The paper opted for an exploratory study. The data of interest of the research correspond to the possible accesses of users…

  5. Performance Evaluation Model for Application Layer Firewalls.

    Shichang Xuan

    Full Text Available Application layer firewalls protect the trusted area network against information security risks. However, firewall performance may affect user experience. Therefore, performance analysis plays a significant role in the evaluation of application layer firewalls. This paper presents an analytic model of the application layer firewall, based on a system analysis to evaluate the capability of the firewall. In order to enable users to improve the performance of the application layer firewall with limited resources, resource allocation was evaluated to obtain the optimal resource allocation scheme in terms of throughput, delay, and packet loss rate. The proposed model employs the Erlangian queuing model to analyze the performance parameters of the system with regard to the three layers (network, transport, and application layers. Then, the analysis results of all the layers are combined to obtain the overall system performance indicators. A discrete event simulation method was used to evaluate the proposed model. Finally, limited service desk resources were allocated to obtain the values of the performance indicators under different resource allocation scenarios in order to determine the optimal allocation scheme. Under limited resource allocation, this scheme enables users to maximize the performance of the application layer firewall.

  6. Credit Risk Evaluation : Modeling - Analysis - Management

    Wehrspohn, Uwe

    2002-01-01

    An analysis and further development of the building blocks of modern credit risk management: -Definitions of default -Estimation of default probabilities -Exposures -Recovery Rates -Pricing -Concepts of portfolio dependence -Time horizons for risk calculations -Quantification of portfolio risk -Estimation of risk measures -Portfolio analysis and portfolio improvement -Evaluation and comparison of credit risk models -Analytic portfolio loss distributions The thesis contributes to the evaluatio...

  7. A model evaluation checklist for process-based environmental models

    Jackson-Blake, Leah

    2015-04-01

    Mechanistic catchment-scale phosphorus models appear to perform poorly where diffuse sources dominate. The reasons for this were investigated for one commonly-applied model, the INtegrated model of CAtchment Phosphorus (INCA-P). Model output was compared to 18 months of daily water quality monitoring data in a small agricultural catchment in Scotland, and model structure, key model processes and internal model responses were examined. Although the model broadly reproduced dissolved phosphorus dynamics, it struggled with particulates. The reasons for poor performance were explored, together with ways in which improvements could be made. The process of critiquing and assessing model performance was then generalised to provide a broadly-applicable model evaluation checklist, incorporating: (1) Calibration challenges, relating to difficulties in thoroughly searching a high-dimensional parameter space and in selecting appropriate means of evaluating model performance. In this study, for example, model simplification was identified as a necessary improvement to reduce the number of parameters requiring calibration, whilst the traditionally-used Nash Sutcliffe model performance statistic was not able to discriminate between realistic and unrealistic model simulations, and alternative statistics were needed. (2) Data limitations, relating to a lack of (or uncertainty in) input data, data to constrain model parameters, data for model calibration and testing, and data to test internal model processes. In this study, model reliability could be improved by addressing all four kinds of data limitation. For example, there was insufficient surface water monitoring data for model testing against an independent dataset to that used in calibration, whilst additional monitoring of groundwater and effluent phosphorus inputs would help distinguish between alternative plausible model parameterisations. (3) Model structural inadequacies, whereby model structure may inadequately represent

  8. Policy options

    Miller, A.

    1990-01-01

    The obstacles to bringing about consumer response to environmental dangers are particularly challenging for global problems like ozone depletion and the greenhouse effect. In this situation, there is the danger of what is commonly termed the tragedy of the commons, the ecological destruction that can occur from uncontrolled use of shared resources like the atmosphere. There is probably no country for which reductions in global warming provide an adequate economic incentive to reduce greenhouse gas emissions unilaterally, even though such action could yield substantial global benefits. From any one country's viewpoint, the costs of controlling emissions may exceed the benefits since, without international agreement, reductions achieved by one nation may be offset by another. Therefore, even though the entire world may be better off as a result of efforts to lower emissions, new economic incentives are necessary to lead the market to a socially efficient outcome. This paper describes the range of domestic and international policies that could be adopted to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases, and also discusses the results of modeling analyses of government actions that could reduce or increase such emissions

  9. Treatment Options for Retinoblastoma

    ... factors affect prognosis (chance of recovery) and treatment options. The prognosis (chance of recovery ) and treatment options ... or in other places in the body. Treatment Option Overview Key Points There are different types of ...

  10. Model evaluation methodology applicable to environmental assessment models

    Shaeffer, D.L.

    1979-08-01

    A model evaluation methodology is presented to provide a systematic framework within which the adequacy of environmental assessment models might be examined. The necessity for such a tool is motivated by the widespread use of models for predicting the environmental consequences of various human activities and by the reliance on these model predictions for deciding whether a particular activity requires the deployment of costly control measures. Consequently, the uncertainty associated with prediction must be established for the use of such models. The methodology presented here consists of six major tasks: model examination, algorithm examination, data evaluation, sensitivity analyses, validation studies, and code comparison. This methodology is presented in the form of a flowchart to show the logical interrelatedness of the various tasks. Emphasis has been placed on identifying those parameters which are most important in determining the predictive outputs of a model. Importance has been attached to the process of collecting quality data. A method has been developed for analyzing multiplicative chain models when the input parameters are statistically independent and lognormally distributed. Latin hypercube sampling has been offered as a promising candidate for doing sensitivity analyses. Several different ways of viewing the validity of a model have been presented. Criteria are presented for selecting models for environmental assessment purposes

  11. EVALUATION OF RATIONAL FUNCTION MODEL FOR GEOMETRIC MODELING OF CHANG'E-1 CCD IMAGES

    Y. Liu

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Rational Function Model (RFM is a generic geometric model that has been widely used in geometric processing of high-resolution earth-observation satellite images, due to its generality and excellent capability of fitting complex rigorous sensor models. In this paper, the feasibility and precision of RFM for geometric modeling of China's Chang'E-1 (CE-1 lunar orbiter images is presented. The RFM parameters of forward-, nadir- and backward-looking CE-1 images are generated though least squares solution using virtual control points derived from the rigorous sensor model. The precision of the RFM is evaluated by comparing with the rigorous sensor model in both image space and object space. Experimental results using nine images from three orbits show that RFM can precisely fit the rigorous sensor model of CE-1 CCD images with a RMS residual error of 1/100 pixel level in image space and less than 5 meters in object space. This indicates that it is feasible to use RFM to describe the imaging geometry of CE-1 CCD images and spacecraft position and orientation. RFM will enable planetary data centers to have an option to supply RFM parameters of orbital images while keeping the original orbit trajectory data confidential.

  12. In Vitro Evaluation of Molecular Tumor Targets in Nuclear Medicine: Immunohistochemistry Is One Option, but Under Which Conditions?

    Reubi, Jean Claude

    2017-12-01

    The identification of new molecular targets for diagnostic and therapeutic applications using in vitro methods is an important challenge in nuclear medicine. One such method is immunohistochemistry, increasingly popular because it is easy to perform. This review presents the case for conducting receptor immunohistochemistry to evaluate potential molecular targets in human tumor tissue sections. The focus is on the immunohistochemistry of G-protein-coupled receptors, one of the largest families of cell surface proteins, representing a major class of drug targets and thus playing an important role in nuclear medicine. This review identifies common pitfalls and challenges and provides guidelines on performing such immunohistochemical studies. An appropriate validation of the target is a prerequisite for developing robust and informative new molecular probes. © 2017 by the Society of Nuclear Medicine and Molecular Imaging.

  13. Modelling and evaluation of surgical performance using hidden Markov models.

    Megali, Giuseppe; Sinigaglia, Stefano; Tonet, Oliver; Dario, Paolo

    2006-10-01

    Minimally invasive surgery has become very widespread in the last ten years. Since surgeons experience difficulties in learning and mastering minimally invasive techniques, the development of training methods is of great importance. While the introduction of virtual reality-based simulators has introduced a new paradigm in surgical training, skill evaluation methods are far from being objective. This paper proposes a method for defining a model of surgical expertise and an objective metric to evaluate performance in laparoscopic surgery. Our approach is based on the processing of kinematic data describing movements of surgical instruments. We use hidden Markov model theory to define an expert model that describes expert surgical gesture. The model is trained on kinematic data related to exercises performed on a surgical simulator by experienced surgeons. Subsequently, we use this expert model as a reference model in the definition of an objective metric to evaluate performance of surgeons with different abilities. Preliminary results show that, using different topologies for the expert model, the method can be efficiently used both for the discrimination between experienced and novice surgeons, and for the quantitative assessment of surgical ability.

  14. Evaluating climate change adaptation options for urban flooding in Copenhagen based on new high‐end emission scenario simulations

    Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten; Leonhardsen, Lykke; Madsen, Henrik

    2014-01-01

    Climate change adaptation studies on urban flooding are often based on a model chain approach from climate forcing scenarios to analysis of adaptation measures. Previous analyses of impacts in Denmark using ensemble projections of the A1B scenario are supplemented by two high‐end scenario...... to change substantially. The impacts are assessed using Copenhagen as a case study. For both types of extremes large adaptation measures are essential in the global six degree scenario; dikes must be constructed to mitigate sea surge risk and a variety of measures to store or convey storm water must...... be implemented as well as new paradigms for city planning to mitigate the impact of change in extreme precipitation risk. For both hazards business‐as‐usual are not possible scenarios, because large autonomous adaptation will occur in lack of suitable policy‐driven changes. Copenhagen has developed an adaptation...

  15. Analysis of Options Contract, Option Pricing in Agricultural Products

    H. Tamidy

    2016-03-01

    of standardizing the underlying asset 4- Impossibility of creating cross supply of the underlying asset In addition, after the introduction of the model parameters, we offers method calculating of the volatility (standard deviation price with using historical data (time series. Parameters of Blk- Scholes model are introduced and option contract of selected product will pricing. After effect of the rise and fall agreement prices (in the form of 9-defined scenario on the price of put option and sales option are studied. In this study, after forming the hypothetical option market for the Canola, option pricing is done. In this section, the criteria for selecting an appropriate asset base is expressed for option contract. The Black–Scholes model is introduced for the valuation of call option and European put option contract. After introducing the model parameters, the calculation of volatility (standard deviation of price using historical data (time series is presented .To achieve this aim, the Black – Scholes model was used under 9 strike price scenario of 5, 10, 15, 20 percent above; 5, 10, 15, and 20 percent lower and finally equal to current prices. This model was run in Excel 2010 and Derivea gem 1.5. Results and Discussion: The results showed 43% price volatility for canola that reflects uncertainty in its price. In the next stage of pricing, the purchase and sale of the selected product was done under the nine price scenarios. The results showed that the highest authority to purchase option was for scenario K1 and the highest buy option was for the K9 scenario. The least expensive buy option is K9 and the least expensive sell option is K1. Conclusion: The results show that the increase of strike price under these scenarios leads to a decrease of call option price and decrease of put option price. In addition, the farmers, businesspersons and agricultural products transforming factories with a different degree of risk disclosure can participate in these markets

  16. Evaluation of energy efficiency options in steam assisted gravity drainage oil sands surface facilities via process integration

    Carreon, Carlos E.; Mahmoudkhani, Maryam; Alva-Argaez, Alberto; Bergerson, Joule

    2015-01-01

    While new technologies are being developed for extracting unconventional oil, in the near term economic benefits and footprint reduction can be achieved by enhancing the energy efficiency of existing facilities. The objective of this work is to evaluate energy efficiency opportunities for in situ extraction of Canada's oil sands resource using pinch analysis. Modifications to an original plant design are analyzed in order to estimate utility savings beyond those obtained for the initial process configuration. The modifications explored in this paper are estimated to deliver energy savings of up to 6% beyond ‘business as usual’. This corresponds to GHG emissions reduction of approximately 5%. However, in some cases, this increase in energy savings comes at the cost of increasing demand for make-up water and volume of disposal water. Surplus generation of steam beyond heating requirements in the water treatment system leads to energy inefficiencies. Additional cost and energy savings are obtained by reducing or eliminating the use of glycol in the cooling circuit. - Highlights: • Pinch analysis performed for unconventional oil recovery process to identify inefficiencies. • Both the removal of pinch violations and process modifications lead to savings. • Effect of energy savings on water consumption for the process is considered. • Greenhouse gas emissions reduction and economic benefit are estimated for the studied cases

  17. Characterization and evaluation of potential reuse options for wastewater sludge and combined sewer system sediments in Mexico

    Jimenez, B.; Mendez, J.M.; Barrios, J.A.; Salgado, G.; Sheinbaum, C.

    2003-07-01

    Combined sewer systems generate sediments that have characteristics similar to those of primary sludge. Mexico City has such a system composed of a network of pipes, regulation structures (dams, basins) and open channels. The annual generation of sediments is estimated in 2.8 Mm{sup 3}, which includes 0.41 Mm{sup 3} of sludge. As a result, the total capacity for transporting water is reduced considerably, making necessary to extract yearly an approximate 0.85 Mm{sup 3} of those materials and to send them to a final disposal site with a capacity that is being exhausted. As part of the local Governmental effort, this project evaluates the quality of sediments from 6 dams, 4 regulation basins, 2 open channels, and 3 transfer stations. Also, sludge from 20 wastewater treatment plants was sampled. The results showed an important presence of lead and hydrocarbons in some sediments, and some sludge samples contained arsenic and nickel above the limits. Moreover, microbial levels exceeded the limits in all the sediments and sludge samples. Erosion was linked to the generation of an important amount of sediments based on lead concentration. A classification was established to determine the degree of contamination of the sediments as well as the required treatment to allow their potential reuse. (author)

  18. The Factor Structure in Equity Options

    Christoffersen, Peter; Fournier, Mathieu; Jacobs, Kris

    Principal component analysis of equity options on Dow-Jones firms reveals a strong factor structure. The first principal component explains 77% of the variation in the equity volatility level, 77% of the variation in the equity option skew, and 60% of the implied volatility term structure across...... equities. Furthermore, the first principal component has a 92% correlation with S&P500 index option volatility, a 64% correlation with the index option skew, and a 80% correlation with the index option term structure. We develop an equity option valuation model that captures this factor structure...

  19. Model description and evaluation of model performance: DOSDIM model

    Lewyckyj, N.; Zeevaert, T.

    1996-01-01

    DOSDIM was developed to assess the impact to man from routine and accidental atmospheric releases. It is a compartmental, deterministic, radiological model. For an accidental release, dynamic transfer are used in opposition to a routine release for which equilibrium transfer factors are used. Parameters values were chosen to be conservative. Transfer between compartments are described by first-order differential equations. 2 figs

  20. Performance Evaluation and Modelling of Container Terminals

    Venkatasubbaiah, K.; Rao, K. Narayana; Rao, M. Malleswara; Challa, Suresh

    2018-02-01

    The present paper evaluates and analyzes the performance of 28 container terminals of south East Asia through data envelopment analysis (DEA), principal component analysis (PCA) and hybrid method of DEA-PCA. DEA technique is utilized to identify efficient decision making unit (DMU)s and to rank DMUs in a peer appraisal mode. PCA is a multivariate statistical method to evaluate the performance of container terminals. In hybrid method, DEA is integrated with PCA to arrive the ranking of container terminals. Based on the composite ranking, performance modelling and optimization of container terminals is carried out through response surface methodology (RSM).

  1. A quantum model of option pricing: When Black-Scholes meets Schrödinger and its semi-classical limit

    Contreras, Mauricio; Pellicer, Rely; Villena, Marcelo; Ruiz, Aaron

    2010-12-01

    The Black-Scholes equation can be interpreted from the point of view of quantum mechanics, as the imaginary time Schrödinger equation of a free particle. When deviations of this state of equilibrium are considered, as a product of some market imperfection, such as: Transaction cost, asymmetric information issues, short-term volatility, extreme discontinuities, or serial correlations; the classical non-arbitrage assumption of the Black-Scholes model is violated, implying a non-risk-free portfolio. From Haven (2002) [1] we know that an arbitrage environment is a necessary condition to embedding the Black-Scholes option pricing model in a more general quantum physics setting. The aim of this paper is to propose a new Black-Scholes-Schrödinger model based on the endogenous arbitrage option pricing formulation introduced by Contreras et al. (2010) [2]. Hence, we derive a more general quantum model of option pricing, that incorporates arbitrage as an external time dependent force, which has an associated potential related to the random dynamic of the underlying asset price. This new resultant model can be interpreted as a Schrödinger equation in imaginary time for a particle of mass 1/σ2 with a wave function in an external field force generated by the arbitrage potential. As pointed out above, this new model can be seen as a more general formulation, where the perfect market equilibrium state postulated by the Black-Scholes model represent a particular case. Finally, since the Schrödinger equation is in place, we can apply semiclassical methods, of common use in theoretical physics, to find an approximate analytical solution of the Black-Scholes equation in the presence of market imperfections, as it is the case of an arbitrage bubble. Here, as a numerical illustration of the potential of this Schrödinger equation analogy, the semiclassical approximation is performed for different arbitrage bubble forms (step, linear and parabolic) and compare with the exact

  2. Pricing FX Options in the Heston/CIR Jump-Diffusion Model with Log-Normal and Log-Uniform Jump Amplitudes

    Rehez Ahlip

    2015-01-01

    model for the exchange rate with log-normal jump amplitudes and the volatility model with log-uniformly distributed jump amplitudes. We assume that the domestic and foreign stochastic interest rates are governed by the CIR dynamics. The instantaneous volatility is correlated with the dynamics of the exchange rate return, whereas the domestic and foreign short-term rates are assumed to be independent of the dynamics of the exchange rate and its volatility. The main result furnishes a semianalytical formula for the price of the foreign exchange European call option.

  3. Development of methods for evaluating options for improving air quality in Santiago, Chile and its environs. Final report

    Williams, M.D.; Brown, M.J.

    1993-10-01

    Santiago, Chile has a serious air pollution problem. Aerosols reach very high levels and ozone exceeds US ambient standards on over 100 days a year. Chileans are very concerned about the poor air quality of Santiago and the effect of emissions from their copper smelters both near Santiago and at other sites. Officials from both the Santiago metropolitan air quality commission (La Comision Especial de Descontaminacion de le Region Metropolitana) and a government owned copper development company (La Empress Nacional de Mineria (ENAMI)) have asked for assistance to deal with the air quality problems in the city and associated with smelter emissions. This report describes the first steps in that effort. Santiago lies in a valley between a small coastal range to the west and the towering Andes to the cast. Air motion is greatly affected by the major topographical features which include the Pacific Ocean, the coastal range, and the Andes. In this first year of work the authors concentrated on gathering information on the meteorology, topography, and air quality of the metropolitan region. They examined two smelter sites and applied models to them to help their understanding and to provide assistance to ENAMI. One smelter, Ventanas, was located on the Pacific coast to the northwest of Santiago, while the other, Paipote, was located several hundred kilometers to the north. The Ventanas emissions may potentially affect Santiago air quality. Several advantages of working with the smelters in the first phase of the project are: (1) there is more monitoring in the vicinity of the smelters, (2) the development of a useful emission inventory is easier, (3) they pose a simpler problem of immediate interest whose resolution will provide an early benefit to the Chilean colleagues, and (4) the authors gain important experience as they prepare to delve deeper into Santiago`s air pollution problems.

  4. Option Derivatives in Electricity Hedging

    P. Pavlátka

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Despite the high volatility of electricity prices, there is still little demand for electricity power options, and the liquidity on the power exchanges of these power derivatives is quite low. One of the reasons is the uncertainty about how to evaluate these electricity options and about finding the right fair value of this product. Hedging of electricity is associated mainly with products such as futures and forwards. However, due to new trends in electricity trading and hedging, it is also useful to think more about options and the principles for working with them in hedging various portfolio positions and counterparties. We can quite often encounter a situation when we need to have a perfect hedge for our customer’s (end user consuming electricity portfolio, or we have to evaluate the volumetric risk (inability of a customer to predict consumption, which is very similar to selling options. Now comes the moment to compare the effects of using options or futures to hedge these open positions. From a practical viewpoint, the Black-Scholes prices appear to be the best available and the simplest method for evaluating option premiums, but there are some limitations that we have to consider.

  5. Thermo-Economic Modelling and Process Integration of CO2-Mitigation Options on Oil and Gas Platforms

    Nguyen, Tuong-Van; Tock, Laurence; Breuhaus, Peter

    2014-01-01

    recovering CO2 that can be used for enhanced oil recovery. In this paper, a North Sea platform is considered as case study, and the site-scale retrofit integration of these three options is analysed, considering thermodynamic, economic and environmental performance indicators. The results illustrate......The offshore extraction of oil and gas is an energy-intensive process associated with large CO2 and CH4 emissions to the atmosphere and chemicals to the sea. The taxation of these emissions has encouraged the development of more energy-efficient and environmental-friendly solutions, of which three...

  6. CTBT integrated verification system evaluation model supplement

    EDENBURN,MICHAEL W.; BUNTING,MARCUS; PAYNE JR.,ARTHUR C.; TROST,LAWRENCE C.

    2000-03-02

    Sandia National Laboratories has developed a computer based model called IVSEM (Integrated Verification System Evaluation Model) to estimate the performance of a nuclear detonation monitoring system. The IVSEM project was initiated in June 1994, by Sandia's Monitoring Systems and Technology Center and has been funded by the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Nonproliferation and National Security (DOE/NN). IVSEM is a simple, ''top-level,'' modeling tool which estimates the performance of a Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) monitoring system and can help explore the impact of various sensor system concepts and technology advancements on CTBT monitoring. One of IVSEM's unique features is that it integrates results from the various CTBT sensor technologies (seismic, in sound, radionuclide, and hydroacoustic) and allows the user to investigate synergy among the technologies. Specifically, IVSEM estimates the detection effectiveness (probability of detection), location accuracy, and identification capability of the integrated system and of each technology subsystem individually. The model attempts to accurately estimate the monitoring system's performance at medium interfaces (air-land, air-water) and for some evasive testing methods such as seismic decoupling. The original IVSEM report, CTBT Integrated Verification System Evaluation Model, SAND97-25 18, described version 1.2 of IVSEM. This report describes the changes made to IVSEM version 1.2 and the addition of identification capability estimates that have been incorporated into IVSEM version 2.0.

  7. CTBT integrated verification system evaluation model supplement

    EDENBURN, MICHAEL W.; BUNTING, MARCUS; PAYNE, ARTHUR C. JR.; TROST, LAWRENCE C.

    2000-01-01

    Sandia National Laboratories has developed a computer based model called IVSEM (Integrated Verification System Evaluation Model) to estimate the performance of a nuclear detonation monitoring system. The IVSEM project was initiated in June 1994, by Sandia's Monitoring Systems and Technology Center and has been funded by the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Nonproliferation and National Security (DOE/NN). IVSEM is a simple, ''top-level,'' modeling tool which estimates the performance of a Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) monitoring system and can help explore the impact of various sensor system concepts and technology advancements on CTBT monitoring. One of IVSEM's unique features is that it integrates results from the various CTBT sensor technologies (seismic, in sound, radionuclide, and hydroacoustic) and allows the user to investigate synergy among the technologies. Specifically, IVSEM estimates the detection effectiveness (probability of detection), location accuracy, and identification capability of the integrated system and of each technology subsystem individually. The model attempts to accurately estimate the monitoring system's performance at medium interfaces (air-land, air-water) and for some evasive testing methods such as seismic decoupling. The original IVSEM report, CTBT Integrated Verification System Evaluation Model, SAND97-25 18, described version 1.2 of IVSEM. This report describes the changes made to IVSEM version 1.2 and the addition of identification capability estimates that have been incorporated into IVSEM version 2.0

  8. Evaluating spatial patterns in hydrological modelling

    Koch, Julian

    the contiguous United Sates (10^6 km2). To this end, the thesis at hand applies a set of spatial performance metrics on various hydrological variables, namely land-surface-temperature (LST), evapotranspiration (ET) and soil moisture. The inspiration for the applied metrics is found in related fields...... is not fully exploited by current modelling frameworks due to the lack of suitable spatial performance metrics. Furthermore, the traditional model evaluation using discharge is found unsuitable to lay confidence on the predicted catchment inherent spatial variability of hydrological processes in a fully...

  9. Retrieval options study

    1980-03-01

    This Retrieval Options Study is part of the systems analysis activities of the Office of Nuclear Waste Isolation to develop the scientific and technological bases for radioactive waste repositories in various geologic media. The study considers two waste forms, high level waste and spent fuel, and defines various classes of waste retrieval and recovery. A methodology and data base are developed which allow the relative evaluation of retrieval and recovery costs and the following technical criteria: safety; technical feasibility; ease of retrieval; probable intact retrieval time; safeguards; monitoring; criticality; and licensability. A total of 505 repository options are defined and the cost and technical criteria evaluated utilizing a combination of facts and engineering judgments. The repositories evaluated are selected combinations of the following parameters: Geologic Media (salt, granite, basalt, shale); Retrieval Time after Emplacement (5 and 25 years); Emplacement Design (nominal hole, large hole, carbon steel canister, corrosion resistant canister, backfill in hole, nominal sleeves, thick wall sleeves); Emplacement Configuration (single vertical, multiple vertical, single horizontal, multiple horizontal, vaults; Thermal Considerations; (normal design, reduced density, once-through ventilation, recirculated ventilation); Room Backfill; (none, run-of-mine, early, 5 year delay, 25 year delay, decommissioned); and Rate of Retrieval; (same as emplacement, variably slower depending on repository/canister condition).

  10. Retrieval options study

    1980-03-01

    This Retrieval Options Study is part of the systems analysis activities of the Office of Nuclear Waste Isolation to develop the scientific and technological bases for radioactive waste repositories in various geologic media. The study considers two waste forms, high level waste and spent fuel, and defines various classes of waste retrieval and recovery. A methodology and data base are developed which allow the relative evaluation of retrieval and recovery costs and the following technical criteria: safety; technical feasibility; ease of retrieval; probable intact retrieval time; safeguards; monitoring; criticality; and licensability. A total of 505 repository options are defined and the cost and technical criteria evaluated utilizing a combination of facts and engineering judgments. The repositories evaluated are selected combinations of the following parameters: Geologic Media (salt, granite, basalt, shale); Retrieval Time after Emplacement (5 and 25 years); Emplacement Design (nominal hole, large hole, carbon steel canister, corrosion resistant canister, backfill in hole, nominal sleeves, thick wall sleeves); Emplacement Configuration (single vertical, multiple vertical, single horizontal, multiple horizontal, vaults; Thermal Considerations; (normal design, reduced density, once-through ventilation, recirculated ventilation); Room Backfill; (none, run-of-mine, early, 5 year delay, 25 year delay, decommissioned); and Rate of Retrieval;

  11. Option Strike Price and Managerial Investment Decisions

    刘鸿雁; 张维

    2003-01-01

    The manager′s investment decisions is modeled when the manager is risk-averse and has stock options as compensation. It is found that the strike price of options is crucial to the investment incentives of managers, and that the correct value, or interval of values, of managerial stock option strike price can bring stockholder and manager interests in agreement.

  12. Option Fixation: A Cognitive Contributor to Overconfidence

    Sieck, Winston R.; Merkle, Edgar C.; Van Zandt, Trisha

    2007-01-01

    The ASC model of choice and confidence in general knowledge proposes that respondents first Assess the familiarity of presented options, and then use the high-familiarity option as a retrieval cue to Search memory for the purposes of Constructing an explanation about why that high-familiarity option is true. The ASC process implies that…

  13. Transport properties site descriptive model. Guidelines for evaluation and modelling

    Berglund, Sten; Selroos, Jan-Olof

    2004-04-01

    This report describes a strategy for the development of Transport Properties Site Descriptive Models within the SKB Site Investigation programme. Similar reports have been produced for the other disciplines in the site descriptive modelling (Geology, Hydrogeology, Hydrogeochemistry, Rock mechanics, Thermal properties, and Surface ecosystems). These reports are intended to guide the site descriptive modelling, but also to provide the authorities with an overview of modelling work that will be performed. The site descriptive modelling of transport properties is presented in this report and in the associated 'Strategy for the use of laboratory methods in the site investigations programme for the transport properties of the rock', which describes laboratory measurements and data evaluations. Specifically, the objectives of the present report are to: Present a description that gives an overview of the strategy for developing Site Descriptive Models, and which sets the transport modelling into this general context. Provide a structure for developing Transport Properties Site Descriptive Models that facilitates efficient modelling and comparisons between different sites. Provide guidelines on specific modelling issues where methodological consistency is judged to be of special importance, or where there is no general consensus on the modelling approach. The objectives of the site descriptive modelling process and the resulting Transport Properties Site Descriptive Models are to: Provide transport parameters for Safety Assessment. Describe the geoscientific basis for the transport model, including the qualitative and quantitative data that are of importance for the assessment of uncertainties and confidence in the transport description, and for the understanding of the processes at the sites. Provide transport parameters for use within other discipline-specific programmes. Contribute to the integrated evaluation of the investigated sites. The site descriptive modelling of

  14. Evaluation of CNN as anthropomorphic model observer

    Massanes, Francesc; Brankov, Jovan G.

    2017-03-01

    Model observers (MO) are widely used in medical imaging to act as surrogates of human observers in task-based image quality evaluation, frequently towards optimization of reconstruction algorithms. In this paper, we explore the use of convolutional neural networks (CNN) to be used as MO. We will compare CNN MO to alternative MO currently being proposed and used such as the relevance vector machine based MO and channelized Hotelling observer (CHO). As the success of the CNN, and other deep learning approaches, is rooted in large data sets availability, which is rarely the case in medical imaging systems task-performance evaluation, we will evaluate CNN performance on both large and small training data sets.

  15. Small Animal Models for Evaluating Filovirus Countermeasures.

    Banadyga, Logan; Wong, Gary; Qiu, Xiangguo

    2018-05-11

    The development of novel therapeutics and vaccines to treat or prevent disease caused by filoviruses, such as Ebola and Marburg viruses, depends on the availability of animal models that faithfully recapitulate clinical hallmarks of disease as it is observed in humans. In particular, small animal models (such as mice and guinea pigs) are historically and frequently used for the primary evaluation of antiviral countermeasures, prior to testing in nonhuman primates, which represent the gold-standard filovirus animal model. In the past several years, however, the filovirus field has witnessed the continued refinement of the mouse and guinea pig models of disease, as well as the introduction of the hamster and ferret models. We now have small animal models for most human-pathogenic filoviruses, many of which are susceptible to wild type virus and demonstrate key features of disease, including robust virus replication, coagulopathy, and immune system dysfunction. Although none of these small animal model systems perfectly recapitulates Ebola virus disease or Marburg virus disease on its own, collectively they offer a nearly complete set of tools in which to carry out the preclinical development of novel antiviral drugs.

  16. Australian Asian Options

    Manuel Moreno; Javier F. Navas

    2003-01-01

    We study European options on the ratio of the stock price to its average and viceversa. Some of these options are traded in the Australian Stock Exchange since 1992, thus we call them Australian Asian options. For geometric averages, we obtain closed-form expressions for option prices. For arithmetic means, we use different approximations that produce very similar results.

  17. Implicit moral evaluations: A multinomial modeling approach.

    Cameron, C Daryl; Payne, B Keith; Sinnott-Armstrong, Walter; Scheffer, Julian A; Inzlicht, Michael

    2017-01-01

    Implicit moral evaluations-i.e., immediate, unintentional assessments of the wrongness of actions or persons-play a central role in supporting moral behavior in everyday life. Yet little research has employed methods that rigorously measure individual differences in implicit moral evaluations. In five experiments, we develop a new sequential priming measure-the Moral Categorization Task-and a multinomial model that decomposes judgment on this task into multiple component processes. These include implicit moral evaluations of moral transgression primes (Unintentional Judgment), accurate moral judgments about target actions (Intentional Judgment), and a directional tendency to judge actions as morally wrong (Response Bias). Speeded response deadlines reduced Intentional Judgment but not Unintentional Judgment (Experiment 1). Unintentional Judgment was stronger toward moral transgression primes than non-moral negative primes (Experiments 2-4). Intentional Judgment was associated with increased error-related negativity, a neurophysiological indicator of behavioral control (Experiment 4). Finally, people who voted for an anti-gay marriage amendment had stronger Unintentional Judgment toward gay marriage primes (Experiment 5). Across Experiments 1-4, implicit moral evaluations converged with moral personality: Unintentional Judgment about wrong primes, but not negative primes, was negatively associated with psychopathic tendencies and positively associated with moral identity and guilt proneness. Theoretical and practical applications of formal modeling for moral psychology are discussed. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  18. Wetland Biomass Production: emergent aquatic management options and evaluations. A final subcontract report. [Includes a bibliography containing 686 references on Typha from biological abstracts

    Pratt, D.C.; Dubbe, D.R.; Garver, E.G.; Linton, P.J.

    1984-07-01

    The high yield potential and attractive chemical composition of Typha make it a particularly viable energy crop. The Minnesota research effort has demonstrated that total annual biomass yields equivalent to 30 dry tonnes/ha (13 tons/acre) are possible in planted stands. This compares with yields of total plant material between 9 and 16 dry tonnes/ha (4 to 7 tons/acre) in a typical Minnesota corn field. At least 50% of the Typha plant is comprised of a belowground rhizome system containing 40% starch and sugar. This high level of easily fermentable carbohydrate makes rhizomes an attractive feedstock for alcohol production. The aboveground portion of the plant is largely cellulose, and although it is not easily fermentable, it can be gasified or burned. This report is organized in a manner that focuses on the evaluation of the management options task. Results from stand management research performed at the University of Minnesota during 1982 and 1983 are integrated with findings from an extensive survey of relevant emergent aquatic plant research and utilization. These results and findings are then arranged in sections dealing with key steps and issues that need to be dealt with in the development of a managed emergent aquatic bio-energy system. A brief section evaluating the current status of rhizome harvesting is also included along with an indexed bibliography of the biology, ecology, and utilization of Typha which was completed with support from this SERI subcontract. 686 references, 11 figures, 17 tables.

  19. The development and evaluation of options for improving future U.K. blood component labelling--outcome of the 2013 U.K. hospital survey.

    Nightingale, M J; Brazier, A M; McArthur, K; Jones, J; Cardigan, R; Lodge, L; Maclennan, S

    2014-04-01

    U.K. blood component labels have evolved to accommodate a plethora of information. Concern has, however, been expressed that current U.K. labelling is too 'cluttered', detracting from the clarity of critical information. This prompted a holistic review of labelling and available information technology (IT) with the aim of improving the situation. A survey was circulated requiring U.K. hospital participants to rank each item of information on the label according to its 'criticality' and assess three novel 'future' and one 'transition' prototype labels. Prototypes were based on applicable regulatory standards, best practice guidance, international benchmark data and U.K. expert input. The prototypes support steps towards 'full face' label printing and utilise 2D and quick response (QR) barcodes. Two-hundred eleven completed surveys were received identifying 110 contributing hospitals with 41% from clinical staff, 37% from transfusion laboratory staff and 22% from transfusion practitioners. There was excellent agreement between the three groups on the critical information, i.e., blood group, expiry date, blood component name, unique donation identification number (DIN) and blood component volume but far less on the other information, especially the various warning messages. Of the 'future' labels, option 3 (closest to the current 'quadrant model') was most popular. Option 1, with its additional inverted section replicating critical information was least popular and prompted significant safety concerns. The prototype labels correctly identified the critical items of information and extensive comments confirmed that this was more prominently and clearly displayed. Laboratory staff commented that the transition label was essential to enable IT systems to be adapted. © 2014 The Authors. Transfusion Medicine © 2014 British Blood Transfusion Society.

  20. Perpetual American options within CTRWs

    Montero, Miquel

    2008-06-01

    Continuous-time random walks are a well suited tool for the description of market behaviour at the smallest scale: the tick-to-tick evolution. We will apply this kind of market model to the valuation of perpetual American options: derivatives with no maturity that can be exercised at any time. Our approach leads to option prices that fulfill financial formulas when canonical assumptions on the dynamics governing the process are made, but it is still suitable for more exotic market conditions.