Investment Strategy of Emission-Reduction Technology in a Supply Chain

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gao Xiang Lou

2015-08-01

Full Text Available Greenhouse gas emissions have serious impacts on the natural environment. Therefore, the restrictions imposed on carbon emission force enterprises to take carbon emission into consideration when making production decisions. In this paper, in the context of allowing emission trading and investment of emission reduction technology, models were presented for a two-stage supply chain to analyze the optimal investment and pricing decisions. The results indicate that manufacturer’s endurance capacity of reduction difficulty is higher in the cooperation model than in the Stackelberg game model, and that perfect coordination of supply chains can be realized by a revenue sharing contract. From the perspective of a consumer, low-carbon products mean higher price, so that subsidies or tax exemptions should be provided to keep low prices. Meanwhile, the government can promote investment in emission-reduction technologies and achieve its emission reduction targets by controlling emission trading price, strengthening emission reduction publicity and providing technology investment subsidies.

Long-run savings and investment strategy optimization.

Science.gov (United States)

Gerrard, Russell; Guillén, Montserrat; Nielsen, Jens Perch; Pérez-Marín, Ana M

2014-01-01

We focus on automatic strategies to optimize life cycle savings and investment. Classical optimal savings theory establishes that, given the level of risk aversion, a saver would keep the same relative amount invested in risky assets at any given time. We show that, when optimizing lifecycle investment, performance and risk assessment have to take into account the investor's risk aversion and the maximum amount the investor could lose, simultaneously. When risk aversion and maximum possible loss are considered jointly, an optimal savings strategy is obtained, which follows from constant rather than relative absolute risk aversion. This result is fundamental to prove that if risk aversion and the maximum possible loss are both high, then holding a constant amount invested in the risky asset is optimal for a standard lifetime saving/pension process and outperforms some other simple strategies. Performance comparisons are based on downside risk-adjusted equivalence that is used in our illustration.

Long-Run Savings and Investment Strategy Optimization

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Russell Gerrard

2014-01-01

Full Text Available We focus on automatic strategies to optimize life cycle savings and investment. Classical optimal savings theory establishes that, given the level of risk aversion, a saver would keep the same relative amount invested in risky assets at any given time. We show that, when optimizing lifecycle investment, performance and risk assessment have to take into account the investor’s risk aversion and the maximum amount the investor could lose, simultaneously. When risk aversion and maximum possible loss are considered jointly, an optimal savings strategy is obtained, which follows from constant rather than relative absolute risk aversion. This result is fundamental to prove that if risk aversion and the maximum possible loss are both high, then holding a constant amount invested in the risky asset is optimal for a standard lifetime saving/pension process and outperforms some other simple strategies. Performance comparisons are based on downside risk-adjusted equivalence that is used in our illustration.

Optimal Priority Structure, Capital Structure, and Investment

OpenAIRE

Dirk Hackbarth; David C. Mauer

2012-01-01

We study the interaction between financing and investment decisions in a dynamic model, where the firm has multiple debt issues and equityholders choose the timing of investment. Jointly optimal capital and priority structures can virtually eliminate investment distortions because debt priority serves as a dynamically optimal contract. Examining the relative efficiency of priority rules observed in practice, we develop several predictions about how firms adjust their priority structure in res...

Minimal investment risk of a portfolio optimization problem with budget and investment concentration constraints

Science.gov (United States)

Shinzato, Takashi

2017-02-01

In the present paper, the minimal investment risk for a portfolio optimization problem with imposed budget and investment concentration constraints is considered using replica analysis. Since the minimal investment risk is influenced by the investment concentration constraint (as well as the budget constraint), it is intuitive that the minimal investment risk for the problem with an investment concentration constraint can be larger than that without the constraint (that is, with only the budget constraint). Moreover, a numerical experiment shows the effectiveness of our proposed analysis. In contrast, the standard operations research approach failed to identify accurately the minimal investment risk of the portfolio optimization problem.

Investment under uncertainty : Timing and capacity optimization

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Wen, Xingang

2017-01-01

This thesis consists of three chapters on analyzing the optimal investment timing and investment capacity for the firm(s) undertaking irreversible investment in an uncertain environment. Chapter 2 studies the investment decision of a monopoly firm when it can adjust output quantity in a market with

Optimal Deterministic Investment Strategies for Insurers

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ulrich Rieder

2013-11-01

Full Text Available We consider an insurance company whose risk reserve is given by a Brownian motion with drift and which is able to invest the money into a Black–Scholes financial market. As optimization criteria, we treat mean-variance problems, problems with other risk measures, exponential utility and the probability of ruin. Following recent research, we assume that investment strategies have to be deterministic. This leads to deterministic control problems, which are quite easy to solve. Moreover, it turns out that there are some interesting links between the optimal investment strategies of these problems. Finally, we also show that this approach works in the Lévy process framework.

Optimal control, investment and utilization schemes for energy storage under uncertainty

Science.gov (United States)

Mirhosseini, Niloufar Sadat

Energy storage has the potential to offer new means for added flexibility on the electricity systems. This flexibility can be used in a number of ways, including adding value towards asset management, power quality and reliability, integration of renewable resources and energy bill savings for the end users. However, uncertainty about system states and volatility in system dynamics can complicate the question of when to invest in energy storage and how best to manage and utilize it. This work proposes models to address different problems associated with energy storage within a microgrid, including optimal control, investment, and utilization. Electric load, renewable resources output, storage technology cost and electricity day-ahead and spot prices are the factors that bring uncertainty to the problem. A number of analytical methodologies have been adopted to develop the aforementioned models. Model Predictive Control and discretized dynamic programming, along with a new decomposition algorithm are used to develop optimal control schemes for energy storage for two different levels of renewable penetration. Real option theory and Monte Carlo simulation, coupled with an optimal control approach, are used to obtain optimal incremental investment decisions, considering multiple sources of uncertainty. Two stage stochastic programming is used to develop a novel and holistic methodology, including utilization of energy storage within a microgrid, in order to optimally interact with energy market. Energy storage can contribute in terms of value generation and risk reduction for the microgrid. The integration of the models developed here are the basis for a framework which extends from long term investments in storage capacity to short term operational control (charge/discharge) of storage within a microgrid. In particular, the following practical goals are achieved: (i) optimal investment on storage capacity over time to maximize savings during normal and emergency

Portfolio Optimization of Nanomaterial Use in Clean Energy Technologies.

Science.gov (United States)

Moore, Elizabeth A; Babbitt, Callie W; Gaustad, Gabrielle; Moore, Sean T

2018-04-03

While engineered nanomaterials (ENMs) are increasingly incorporated in diverse applications, risks of ENM adoption remain difficult to predict and mitigate proactively. Current decision-making tools do not adequately account for ENM uncertainties including varying functional forms, unique environmental behavior, economic costs, unknown supply and demand, and upstream emissions. The complexity of the ENM system necessitates a novel approach: in this study, the adaptation of an investment portfolio optimization model is demonstrated for optimization of ENM use in renewable energy technologies. Where a traditional investment portfolio optimization model maximizes return on investment through optimal selection of stock, ENM portfolio optimization maximizes the performance of energy technology systems by optimizing selective use of ENMs. Cumulative impacts of multiple ENM material portfolios are evaluated in two case studies: organic photovoltaic cells (OPVs) for renewable energy and lithium-ion batteries (LIBs) for electric vehicles. Results indicate ENM adoption is dependent on overall performance and variance of the material, resource use, environmental impact, and economic trade-offs. From a sustainability perspective, improved clean energy applications can help extend product lifespans, reduce fossil energy consumption, and substitute ENMs for scarce incumbent materials.

10 CFR 603.1340 - Technology investment agreement.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... 10 Energy 4 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Technology investment agreement. 603.1340 Section 603.1340 Energy DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY (CONTINUED) ASSISTANCE REGULATIONS TECHNOLOGY INVESTMENT AGREEMENTS Definitions of Terms Used in this Part § 603.1340 Technology investment agreement. A TIA is a special type of...

Market Power and Investment in Renewable Electricity Generation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ernstsen, Rune Ramsdal; Misir, Nihat

while incurring lower investment costs. We additionally find that highly convex investment cost greatly diminishes the impact of market power on the investment decisions. Furthermore, for both the strategic firm and the social planner, fixed baseload generation is preferable during low installed...... approach to evaluate the investment decisions. In our paper we do not only focus on the differences in costs for different technologies but also on the differences in operation of those technologies and how those differences impact the optimal investment decisions. In our model, the one-time investment...... decision requires the determination of demand shock trigger level, choice of technology and level of optimal capacity. We specifically investigate how the investment triggers, optimal capacities and technology choices change with the changes to the investment cost function, demand uncertainty and the level...

Optimal investment horizons

Science.gov (United States)

Simonsen, I.; Jensen, M. H.; Johansen, A.

2002-06-01

In stochastic finance, one traditionally considers the return as a competitive measure of an asset, i.e., the profit generated by that asset after some fixed time span Δt, say one week or one year. This measures how well (or how bad) the asset performs over that given period of time. It has been established that the distribution of returns exhibits ``fat tails'' indicating that large returns occur more frequently than what is expected from standard Gaussian stochastic processes [1-3]. Instead of estimating this ``fat tail'' distribution of returns, we propose here an alternative approach, which is outlined by addressing the following question: What is the smallest time interval needed for an asset to cross a fixed return level of say 10%? For a particular asset, we refer to this time as the investment horizon and the corresponding distribution as the investment horizon distribution. This latter distribution complements that of returns and provides new and possibly crucial information for portfolio design and risk-management, as well as for pricing of more exotic options. By considering historical financial data, exemplified by the Dow Jones Industrial Average, we obtain a novel set of probability distributions for the investment horizons which can be used to estimate the optimal investment horizon for a stock or a future contract.

Making optimal investment decisions for energy service companies under uncertainty: A case study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Deng, Qianli; Jiang, Xianglin; Zhang, Limao; Cui, Qingbin

2015-01-01

Varied initial energy efficiency investments would result in different annual energy savings achievements. In order to balance the savings revenue and the potential capital loss through EPC (Energy Performance Contracting), a cost-effective investment decision is needed when selecting energy efficiency technologies. In this research, an approach is developed for the ESCO (Energy Service Company) to evaluate the potential energy savings profit, and thus make the optimal investment decisions. The energy savings revenue under uncertainties, which are derived from energy efficiency performance variation and energy price fluctuation, are first modeled as stochastic processes. Then, the derived energy savings profit is shared by the owner and the ESCO according to the contract specification. A simulation-based model is thus built to maximize the owner's profit, and at the same time, satisfy the ESCO's expected rate of return. In order to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed approach, the University of Maryland campus case is also presented. The proposed method could not only help the ESCO determine the optimal energy efficiency investments, but also assist the owner's decision in the bidding selection. - Highlights: • An optimization model is built for determining energy efficiency investment for ESCO. • Evolution of the energy savings revenue is modeled as a stochastic process. • Simulation is adopted to calculate investment balancing the owner and the ESCO's profit. • A campus case is presented to demonstrate applicability of the proposed approach

Optimal lag in dynamical investments

OpenAIRE

Serva, M.

1998-01-01

A portfolio of different stocks and a risk-less security whose composition is dynamically maintained stable by trading shares at any time step leads to a growth of the capital with a nonrandom rate. This is the key for the theory of optimal-growth investment formulated by Kelly. In presence of transaction costs, the optimal composition changes and, more important, it turns out that the frequency of transactions must be reduced. This simple observation leads to the definition of an optimal lag...

Considerations on Optimal Financial Invest ment into Infrastructural Facilities

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

无

2002-01-01

The enlargement of government's investment into infrastructural construction is both a help medicine curing economic contraction and an effective measure to accumulate long-term economic growth.. However, the investment by finance into infrastructure also has a problem of optimization and reasonable selection. In view of market economic requirements, the policy direction of financial investment into infrastructural industries must be doing something at the expense of some other things. In the process of the adjustment and optimization of economic structure, state financial investment into infrastructural facilities has to first of all solve the problem of delimitating the best fields and selecting trades. As to the infrastructure facilities producing and selling pure public products, the development must be made by financial investment;As to the production fields of subpublic products, finance should ensure reasonable investment; As to the infrastructural facilities of pure privite production, finance should completely, in principle, pull out and let market supply. On this basis, selections should be made on best capital soureces and investment ways. The capital sources should be mainly from tax and regulational income and direct investment may be made. As to the production fields of most subpublic production, the best capital sources are national debt income and indirect investment may be made. In addition, the optimization of financial investment into infrastructural facilities must reform the managerial system of infrastructural facilities and raise investment efficiency. Only by scientifically selecting and arranging the financing ways and managerial system in investment fields,can the maximum economic efficiency and social welfare results be realized in carrying out financial investment into infrastructural facilities.

A System Model of Increasing the Investment Potential of Technologically Unrelated Sectors

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Melnyk Alexander G.

2016-02-01

Full Text Available The article presents a theoretical substantiation and the progress of practical application of the method for evaluating lagged effects of increasing the investment potential of interaction between industries in meso-level innovation systems on the example of the high-tech sector of Ukraine. The interaction data are considered in terms of their formation in such technologically unrelated sectors as the industrial sector and sector of education and sciences. It has been determined that the analytical basis to form the models of increasing the investment potential in innovation systems of meso-level should be presented by a comprehensive integrated assessment of all sectors involved in the reproduction process including technologically unrelated sectors of highly structured innovative systems. There has been proposed a system model of increasing the investment potential of the high-tech sector taking into account the optimization and synergy effects for system decisions concerning technologically unrelated sectors in economic systems of innovation type of reproduction.

NASA/ESTO investments in remote sensing technologies (Conference Presentation)

Science.gov (United States)

Babu, Sachidananda R.

2017-02-01

For more then 18 years NASA Earth Science Technology Office has been investing in remote sensing technologies. During this period ESTO has invested in more then 900 tasks. These tasks are managed under multiple programs like Instrument Incubator Program (IIP), Advanced Component Technology (ACT), Advanced Information Systems Technology (AIST), In-Space Validation of Earth Science Technologies (InVEST), Sustainable Land Imaging - Technology (SLI-T) and others. This covers the whole spectrum of technologies from component to full up satellite in space and software. Over the years many of these technologies have been infused into space missions like Aquarius, SMAP, CYGNSS, SWOT, TEMPO and others. Over the years ESTO is actively investing in Infrared sensor technologies for space applications. Recent investments have been for SLI-T and InVEST program. On these tasks technology development is from simple Bolometers to Advanced Photonic waveguide based spectrometers. Some of the details on these missions and technologies will be presented.

ESTO Investments in Innovative Sensor Technologies for Remote Sensing

Science.gov (United States)

Babu, Sachidananda R.

2017-01-01

For more then 18 years NASA Earth Science Technology Office has been investing in remote sensing technologies. During this period ESTO has invested in more then 900 tasks. These tasks are managed under multiple programs like Instrument Incubator Program (IIP), Advanced Component Technology (ACT), Advanced Information Systems Technology (AIST), In-Space Validation of Earth Science Technologies (InVEST), Sustainable Land Imaging - Technology (SLI-T) and others. This covers the whole spectrum of technologies from component to full up satellite in space and software. Over the years many of these technologies have been infused into space missions like Aquarius, SMAP, CYGNSS, SWOT, TEMPO and others. Over the years ESTO is actively investing in Infrared sensor technologies for space applications. Recent investments have been for SLI-T and InVEST program. On these tasks technology development is from simple Bolometers to Advanced Photonic waveguide based spectrometers. Some of the details on these missions and technologies will be presented.

A Duopoly Manufacturers’ Game Model Considering Green Technology Investment under a Cap-and-Trade System

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yi Zheng

2018-03-01

Full Text Available This research studied the duopoly manufacturers’ decision-making considering green technology investment and under a cap-and-trade system. It was assumed there were two manufacturers producing products which were substitutable for one another. On the basis of this assumption, the optimal production capacity, price, and green technology investment of the duopoly manufacturers under a cap-and-trade system were obtained. The increase or decrease of the optimal production quantity of the duopoly manufacturers under a cap-and-trade system was decided by their green technology level. The increase of the optimal price as well as the increase or decrease of the maximum expected profits were decided by the initial carbon emission quota granted by the government. Our research indicates that the carbon emission of unit product is inversely proportional to the market share of an enterprise and becomes an important index to measure the core competitiveness of an enterprise.

Investments Portfolio Optimal Planning for industrial assets management: Method and Tool

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lonchampt, Jerome; Fessart, Karine

2012-01-01

The purpose of this paper is to describe the method and tool dedicated to optimize investments planning for industrial assets. These investments may either be preventive maintenance tasks, asset enhancement or logistic investment such as spare parts purchase. The three methodological points to investigate in such an issue are: 1. The measure of the profitability of a portfolio of investments 2. The selection and planning of an optimal set of investments 3. The measure of the risk of a portfolio of investments The measure of the profitability of a set of investments in the IPOP (registered) tool is synthesised in the Net Present Value indicator. The NPV is the sum of the differences of discounted cash flows (direct costs, forced outages...) between the situations with and without a given investment. These cash flows are calculated through a pseudo-markov reliability model representing independently the components of the industrial asset and the spare parts inventories. The component model has been widely discussed over the years but the spare part model is a new one based on some approximations that will be discussed. This model, referred as the NPV function, takes for input an investments portfolio and gives its NPV. The second issue is to optimize the NPV. If all investments were independent, this optimization would be an easy calculation, unfortunately there are two sources of dependency. The first one is introduced by the spare part model, as if components are indeed independent in their reliability model, the fact that several components use the same inventory induces a dependency. The second dependency comes from economic, technical or logistic constraints, such as a global maintenance budget limit or a precedence constraint between two investments, making the aggregation of individual optimum not necessary feasible. The algorithm used to solve such a difficult optimization problem is a genetic algorithm. After a description of the features of the software a

Dispositional optimism and stock investments

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Angelini, Viola; Cavapozzi, D.

This paper analyzes the relationship between dispositional optimism and stock investments, controlling for cognitive skills and personality traits such as trust, social interactions and risk aversion. We use data from the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE) on investors aged

Optimal Time to Invest Energy Storage System under Uncertainty Conditions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yongma Moon

2014-04-01

Full Text Available This paper proposes a model to determine the optimal investment time for energy storage systems (ESSs in a price arbitrage trade application under conditions of uncertainty over future profits. The adoption of ESSs can generate profits from price arbitrage trade, which are uncertain because the future marginal prices of electricity will change depending on supply and demand. In addition, since the investment is optional, an investor can delay adopting an ESS until it becomes profitable, and can decide the optimal time. Thus, when we evaluate this investment, we need to incorporate the investor’s option which is not captured by traditional evaluation methods. In order to incorporate these aspects, we applied real option theory to our proposed model, which provides an optimal investment threshold. Our results concerning the optimal time to invest show that if future profits that are expected to be obtained from arbitrage trade become more uncertain, an investor needs to wait longer to invest. Also, improvement in efficiency of ESSs can reduce the uncertainty of arbitrage profit and, consequently, the reduced uncertainty enables earlier ESS investment, even for the same power capacity. Besides, when a higher rate of profits is expected and ESS costs are higher, an investor needs to wait longer. Also, by comparing a widely used net present value model to our real option model, we show that the net present value method underestimates the value for ESS investment and misleads the investor to make an investment earlier.

DETERMINATION OF THE OPTIMAL CAPITAL INVESTMENTS TO ENSURE THE SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT OF THE RAILWAY

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

O. I. Kharchenko

2015-04-01

Full Text Available Purpose. Every year more attention is paid for the theoretical and practical issue of sustainable development of railway transport. But today the mechanisms of financial support of this development are poorly understood. Therefore, the aim of this article is to determine the optimal investment allocation to ensure sustainable development of the railway transport on the example of State Enterprise «Prydniprovsk Railway» and the creation of preconditions for the mathematical model development. Methodology. The ensuring task for sustainable development of railway transport is solved on the basis of the integral indicator of sustainable development effectiveness and defined as the maximization of this criterion. The optimization of measures technological and technical characters are proposed to carry out for increasing values of the integral performance measure components. To the optimization activities of technological nature that enhance the performance criteria belongs: optimization of the number of train and shunting locomotives, optimization of power handling mechanisms at the stations, optimization of routes of train flows. The activities related to the technical nature include: modernization of railways in the direction of their electrification and modernization of the running gear and coupler drawbars of rolling stock, as well as means of separators mechanization at stations to reduce noise impacts on the environment. Findings. The work resulted in the optimal allocation of investments to ensure the sustainable development of railway transportation of State Enterprise «Prydniprovsk Railway». This allows providing such kind of railway development when functioning of State Enterprise «Prydniprovsk Railway» is characterized by a maximum value of the integral indicator of efficiency. Originality. The work was reviewed and the new approach was proposed to determine the optimal allocation of capital investments to ensure sustainable

Optimization of investments in gas networks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Andre, J.

2010-09-01

The natural gas networks require very important investments to cope with a still growing demand and to satisfy the new regulatory constraints. The gas market deregulation imposed to the gas network operators, first, transparency rules of a natural monopoly to justify their costs and ultimately their tariffs, and, second, market fluidity objectives in order to facilitate access for competition to the end-users. These major investments are the main reasons for the use of optimization techniques aiming at reducing the costs. Due to the discrete choices (investment location, limited choice of additional capacities, timing) crossed with physical non linear constraints (flow/pressures relations in the pipe or operating ranges of compressors), the programs to solve are Large Mixed Non Linear Programs (MINLP). As these types of programs are known to be hard to solve exactly in polynomial times (NP-hard), advanced optimization methods have to be implemented to obtain realistic results. The objectives of this thesis are threefold. First, one states several investment problems modeling of natural gas networks from industrial world motivations. Second, one identifies the most suitable methods and algorithms to the formulated problems. Third, one exposes the main advantages and drawbacks of these methods with the help of numerical applications on real cases. (author)

Optimization of Investment Planning Based on Game-Theoretic Approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Elena Vladimirovna Butsenko

2018-03-01

Full Text Available The game-theoretic approach has a vast potential in solving economic problems. On the other hand, the theory of games itself can be enriched by the studies of real problems of decision-making. Hence, this study is aimed at developing and testing the game-theoretic technique to optimize the management of investment planning. This technique enables to forecast the results and manage the processes of investment planning. The proposed method of optimizing the management of investment planning allows to choose the best development strategy of an enterprise. This technique uses the “game with nature” model, and the Wald criterion, the maximum criterion and the Hurwitz criterion as criteria. The article presents a new algorithm for constructing the proposed econometric method to optimize investment project management. This algorithm combines the methods of matrix games. Furthermore, I show the implementation of this technique in a block diagram. The algorithm includes the formation of initial data, the elements of the payment matrix, as well as the definition of maximin, maximal, compromise and optimal management strategies. The methodology is tested on the example of the passenger transportation enterprise of the Sverdlovsk Railway in Ekaterinburg. The application of the proposed methodology and the corresponding algorithm allowed to obtain an optimal price strategy for transporting passengers for one direction of traffic. This price strategy contributes to an increase in the company’s income with minimal risk from the launch of this direction. The obtained results and conclusions show the effectiveness of using the developed methodology for optimizing the management of investment processes in the enterprise. The results of the research can be used as a basis for the development of an appropriate tool and applied by any economic entity in its investment activities.

HIV Treatment and Prevention: A Simple Model to Determine Optimal Investment.

Science.gov (United States)

Juusola, Jessie L; Brandeau, Margaret L

2016-04-01

To create a simple model to help public health decision makers determine how to best invest limited resources in HIV treatment scale-up and prevention. A linear model was developed for determining the optimal mix of investment in HIV treatment and prevention, given a fixed budget. The model incorporates estimates of secondary health benefits accruing from HIV treatment and prevention and allows for diseconomies of scale in program costs and subadditive benefits from concurrent program implementation. Data sources were published literature. The target population was individuals infected with HIV or at risk of acquiring it. Illustrative examples of interventions include preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP), community-based education (CBE), and antiretroviral therapy (ART) for men who have sex with men (MSM) in the US. Outcome measures were incremental cost, quality-adjusted life-years gained, and HIV infections averted. Base case analysis indicated that it is optimal to invest in ART before PrEP and to invest in CBE before scaling up ART. Diseconomies of scale reduced the optimal investment level. Subadditivity of benefits did not affect the optimal allocation for relatively low implementation levels. The sensitivity analysis indicated that investment in ART before PrEP was optimal in all scenarios tested. Investment in ART before CBE became optimal when CBE reduced risky behavior by 4% or less. Limitations of the study are that dynamic effects are approximated with a static model. Our model provides a simple yet accurate means of determining optimal investment in HIV prevention and treatment. For MSM in the US, HIV control funds should be prioritized on inexpensive, effective programs like CBE, then on ART scale-up, with only minimal investment in PrEP. © The Author(s) 2015.

Output-based allocation and investment in clean technologies

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rosendahl, Knut Einar; Storroesten, Halvor Briseid

2011-07-01

Allocation of emission allowances may affect firms' incentives to invest in clean technologies. In this paper we show that so-called output-based allocation tends to stimulate such investments as long as individual firms do not assume the regulator to tighten the allocation rule as a consequence of their investments. The explanation is that output-based allocation creates an implicit subsidy to the firms' output, which increases production, leads to a higher price of allowances, and thus increases the incentives to invest in clean technologies. On the other hand, if the firms expect the regulator to tighten the allocation rule after observing their clean technology investment, the firms' incentives to invest are moderated. If strong, this last effect may outweigh the enhanced investment incentives induced by increased output and higher allowance price. (Author)

Purchasing and inventory management techniques for optimizing inventory investment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

McFarlane, I.; Gehshan, T.

1993-01-01

In an effort to reduce operations and maintenance costs among nuclear plants, many utilities are taking a closer look at their inventory investment. Various approaches for inventory reduction have been used and discussed, but these approaches are often limited to an inventory management perspective. Interaction with purchasing and planning personnel to reduce inventory investment is a necessity in utility efforts to become more cost competitive. This paper addresses the activities that purchasing and inventory management personnel should conduct in an effort to optimize inventory investment while maintaining service-level goals. Other functions within a materials management organization, such as the warehousing and investment recovery functions, can contribute to optimizing inventory investment. However, these are not addressed in this paper because their contributions often come after inventory management and purchasing decisions have been made

Effects of tax depreciation on optimal firm investments

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Wielhouwer, J.L.; Kort, P.M.; De Waegenaere, A.M.B.

1999-01-01

This paper studies how the difference between technical depreciation and tax depreciation affects the firm's optimal investment strategy. The objective is maximization of shareholder value. When tax depreciation differs from technical depreciation, an additional investment not only generates value

An Optimization Framework for Investment Evaluation of Complex Renewable Energy Systems

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

David Olave-Rojas

2017-07-01

Full Text Available Enhancing the role of renewable energies in existing power systems is one of the most crucial challenges that society faces today. However, the high variability of their generation potential and the temporal disparity between the demand and the generation potential represent technological and operational gaps that burden the massive incorporation of renewable sources into power systems. Energy storage technologies are an alternative to tackle this gap; nonetheless, their incorporation within large-scale power grids calls for decision-making tools that ensure an appropriate design and sizing of power systems that exploit the benefits of incorporating storage facilities along with renewable generation power. In this paper, we present an optimization framework for aiding the evaluation of the strategic design of complex renewable power systems. The developed tool relies on an optimization problem, the generation, transmission, storage energy location and sizing problem, which allows one to compute economically-attractive investment plans given by the location and sizing of generation and storage energy systems, along with the corresponding layout of transmission lines. Results on a real case study (located in the central region of Chile, characterized by carefully-curated data, show the potential of the developed tool for aiding long-term investment planning.

Mean-variance Optimal Reinsurance-investment Strategy in Continuous Time

OpenAIRE

Daheng Peng; Fang Zhang

2017-01-01

In this paper, Lagrange method is used to solve the continuous-time mean-variance reinsurance-investment problem. Proportional reinsurance, multiple risky assets and risk-free asset are considered synthetically in the optimal strategy for insurers. By solving the backward stochastic differential equation for the Lagrange multiplier, we get the mean-variance optimal reinsurance-investment strategy and its effective frontier in explicit forms.

Advanced Information Technology Investments at the NASA Earth Science Technology Office

Science.gov (United States)

Clune, T.; Seablom, M. S.; Moe, K.

2012-12-01

The NASA Earth Science Technology Office (ESTO) regularly makes investments for nurturing advanced concepts in information technology to enable rapid, low-cost acquisition, processing and visualization of Earth science data in support of future NASA missions and climate change research. In 2012, the National Research Council published a mid-term assessment of the 2007 decadal survey for future spacemissions supporting Earth science and applications [1]. The report stated, "Earth sciences have advanced significantly because of existing observational capabilities and the fruit of past investments, along with advances in data and information systems, computer science, and enabling technologies." The report found that NASA had responded favorably and aggressively to the decadal survey and noted the role of the recent ESTO solicitation for information systems technologies that partnered with the NASA Applied Sciences Program to support the transition into operations. NASA's future missions are key stakeholders for the ESTO technology investments. Also driving these investments is the need for the Agency to properly address questions regarding the prediction, adaptation, and eventual mitigation of climate change. The Earth Science Division has championed interdisciplinary research, recognizing that the Earth must be studied as a complete system in order toaddress key science questions [2]. Information technology investments in the low-mid technology readiness level (TRL) range play a key role in meeting these challenges. ESTO's Advanced Information Systems Technology (AIST) program invests in higher risk / higher reward technologies that solve the most challenging problems of the information processing chain. This includes the space segment, where the information pipeline begins, to the end user, where knowledge is ultimatelyadvanced. The objectives of the program are to reduce the risk, cost, size, and development time of Earth Science space-based and ground

Mean-variance Optimal Reinsurance-investment Strategy in Continuous Time

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Daheng Peng

2017-10-01

Full Text Available In this paper, Lagrange method is used to solve the continuous-time mean-variance reinsurance-investment problem. Proportional reinsurance, multiple risky assets and risk-free asset are considered synthetically in the optimal strategy for insurers. By solving the backward stochastic differential equation for the Lagrange multiplier, we get the mean-variance optimal reinsurance-investment strategy and its effective frontier in explicit forms.

Innovation investment area: Technology summary

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1994-03-01

The mission of Environmental Management`s (EM) Office of Technology Development (OTD) Innovation Investment Area is to identify and provide development support for two types of technologies that are developed to characterize, treat and dispose of DOE waste, and to remediate contaminated sites. They are: technologies that show promise to address specific EM needs, but require proof-of-principle experimentation; and (2) already proven technologies in other fields that require critical path experimentation to demonstrate feasibility for adaptation to specific EM needs. The underlying strategy is to ensure that private industry, other Federal Agencies, universities, and DOE National Laboratories are major participants in developing and deploying new and emerging technologies. To this end, about 125 different new and emerging technologies are being developed through Innovation Investment Area`s (IIA) two program elements: RDDT&E New Initiatives (RD01) and Interagency Agreements (RD02). Both of these activities are intended to foster research and development partnerships so as to introduce innovative technologies into other OTD program elements for expedited evaluation.

Innovation investment area: Technology summary

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1994-03-01

The mission of Environmental Management's (EM) Office of Technology Development (OTD) Innovation Investment Area is to identify and provide development support for two types of technologies that are developed to characterize, treat and dispose of DOE waste, and to remediate contaminated sites. They are: technologies that show promise to address specific EM needs, but require proof-of-principle experimentation; and (2) already proven technologies in other fields that require critical path experimentation to demonstrate feasibility for adaptation to specific EM needs. The underlying strategy is to ensure that private industry, other Federal Agencies, universities, and DOE National Laboratories are major participants in developing and deploying new and emerging technologies. To this end, about 125 different new and emerging technologies are being developed through Innovation Investment Area's (IIA) two program elements: RDDT ampersand E New Initiatives (RD01) and Interagency Agreements (RD02). Both of these activities are intended to foster research and development partnerships so as to introduce innovative technologies into other OTD program elements for expedited evaluation

Optimal security investments and extreme risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Mohtadi, Hamid; Agiwal, Swati

2012-08-01

In the aftermath of 9/11, concern over security increased dramatically in both the public and the private sector. Yet, no clear algorithm exists to inform firms on the amount and the timing of security investments to mitigate the impact of catastrophic risks. The goal of this article is to devise an optimum investment strategy for firms to mitigate exposure to catastrophic risks, focusing on how much to invest and when to invest. The latter question addresses the issue of whether postponing a risk mitigating decision is an optimal strategy or not. Accordingly, we develop and estimate both a one-period model and a multiperiod model within the framework of extreme value theory (EVT). We calibrate these models using probability measures for catastrophic terrorism risks associated with attacks on the food sector. We then compare our findings with the purchase of catastrophic risk insurance. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

Modeling energy technology choices. Which investment analysis tools are appropriate?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Johnson, B.E.

1994-01-01

A variety of tools from modern investment theory appear to hold promise for unraveling observed energy technology investment behavior that often appears anomalous when analyzed using traditional investment analysis methods. This paper reviews the assumptions and important insights of the investment theories most commonly suggested as candidates for explaining the apparent ''energy technology investment paradox''. The applicability of each theory is considered in the light of important aspects of energy technology investment problems, such as sunk costs, uncertainty and imperfect information. The theories addressed include the capital asset pricing model, the arbitrage pricing theory, and the theory of irreversible investment. Enhanced net present value methods are also considered. (author)

Applications of polynomial optimization in financial risk investment

Science.gov (United States)

Zeng, Meilan; Fu, Hongwei

2017-09-01

Recently, polynomial optimization has many important applications in optimization, financial economics and eigenvalues of tensor, etc. This paper studies the applications of polynomial optimization in financial risk investment. We consider the standard mean-variance risk measurement model and the mean-variance risk measurement model with transaction costs. We use Lasserre's hierarchy of semidefinite programming (SDP) relaxations to solve the specific cases. The results show that polynomial optimization is effective for some financial optimization problems.

Information Technology Investment Strategy Planning: Balance Scorecard Approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Henny Hendarti

2011-05-01

Full Text Available Purpose of this research are to prepare the IT investment strategy using Balanced Scorecard approach in the company where the appropriate planning of this IT investment strategy can maximize the competitive benefit in the company, and it also to recommended a strategy of IT investment that can be implemented and measure the rate of return from the IT investment in the company. Research Method used book studies, field studies, and analysis system. Book studies from the books and journal. Field studies done by observation, interview, and questioner, and analysis system done by analyzed the ongoing system in the company. The result from this analysis is a recommendation in investment IT such as sales module, payment module, and report module. Then for the conclusion, this information technology investment planning can be develop to another investment implementation such authorized website of the company and using PDA (Personal Digital AssistantIndex Terms - Planning, Information Technology, Investment, Balance Scorecard

Optimal Investment Timing and Size of a Logistics Park: A Real Options Perspective

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dezhi Zhang

2017-01-01

Full Text Available This paper uses a real options approach to address optimal timing and size of a logistics park investment with logistics demand volatility. Two important problems are examined: when should an investment be introduced, and what size should it be? A real option model is proposed to explicitly incorporate the effect of government subsidies on logistics park investment. Logistic demand that triggers the threshold for investment in a logistics park project is explored analytically. Comparative static analyses of logistics park investment are also carried out. Our analytical results show that (1 investors will select smaller sized logistics parks and prepone the investment if government subsidies are considered; (2 the real option will postpone the optimal investment timing of logistics parks compared with net present value approach; and (3 logistic demands can significantly affect the optimal investment size and timing of logistics park investment.

Optimizing power system investments and resilience against attacks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fang, Yiping; Sansavini, Giovanni

2017-01-01

This paper studies the combination of capacity expansion and switch installation in electric systems that ensures optimum performance under nominal operations and attacks. The planner–attacker–defender model is adopted to develop decisions that minimize investment and operating costs, and functionality loss after attacks. The model bridges long-term system planning for transmission expansion and short-term switching operations in reaction to attacks. The mixed-integer optimization is solved by decomposition via two-layer cutting plane algorithm. Numerical results on an IEEE system shows that small investments in transmission line switching enhance resilience by responding to disruptions via system reconfiguration. Sensitivity analyses show that transmission planning under the assumption of small-scale attacks provides the most robust strategy, i.e. the minimum-regret planning, if many constraints and limited investment budget affect the planning. On the other hand, the assumption of large-scale attacks provides the most robust strategy if the planning process involves large flexibility and budget. - Highlights: • Investment optimization in power systems under attacks is presented. • Capacity expansion and switch installation for system reconfiguration are combined. • The problem is solved by decomposition via two-layer cutting plane algorithm. • Small investments in switch installation enhance resilience by response to attacks. • Sensitivity analyses identify robust planning against different attack scenarios.

Optimizing investment fund allocation using vehicle routing problem framework

Science.gov (United States)

Mamat, Nur Jumaadzan Zaleha; Jaaman, Saiful Hafizah; Ahmad, Rokiah Rozita

2014-07-01

The objective of investment is to maximize total returns or minimize total risks. To determine the optimum order of investment, vehicle routing problem method is used. The method which is widely used in the field of resource distribution shares almost similar characteristics with the problem of investment fund allocation. In this paper we describe and elucidate the concept of using vehicle routing problem framework in optimizing the allocation of investment fund. To better illustrate these similarities, sectorial data from FTSE Bursa Malaysia is used. Results show that different values of utility for risk-averse investors generate the same investment routes.

Investment Strategies Optimization based on a SAX-GA Methodology

CERN Document Server

Canelas, António M L; Horta, Nuno C G

2013-01-01

This book presents a new computational finance approach combining a Symbolic Aggregate approXimation (SAX) technique with an optimization kernel based on genetic algorithms (GA). While the SAX representation is used to describe the financial time series, the evolutionary optimization kernel is used in order to identify the most relevant patterns and generate investment rules. The proposed approach considers several different chromosomes structures in order to achieve better results on the trading platform The methodology presented in this book has great potential on investment markets.

Optimization Research of Generation Investment Based on Linear Programming Model

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Juan; Ge, Xueqian

Linear programming is an important branch of operational research and it is a mathematical method to assist the people to carry out scientific management. GAMS is an advanced simulation and optimization modeling language and it will combine a large number of complex mathematical programming, such as linear programming LP, nonlinear programming NLP, MIP and other mixed-integer programming with the system simulation. In this paper, based on the linear programming model, the optimized investment decision-making of generation is simulated and analyzed. At last, the optimal installed capacity of power plants and the final total cost are got, which provides the rational decision-making basis for optimized investments.

Financial options methodology for analyzing investments in new technology

Science.gov (United States)

Wenning, B. D.

1995-01-01

The evaluation of investments in longer term research and development in emerging technologies, because of the nature of such subjects, must address inherent uncertainties. Most notably, future cash flow forecasts include substantial uncertainties. Conventional present value methodology, when applied to emerging technologies severely penalizes cash flow forecasts, and strategic investment opportunities are at risk of being neglected. Use of options evaluation methodology adapted from the financial arena has been introduced as having applicability in such technology evaluations. Indeed, characteristics of superconducting magnetic energy storage technology suggest that it is a candidate for the use of options methodology when investment decisions are being contemplated.

Financial options methodology for analyzing investments in new technology

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wenning, B.D. [Texas Utilities Services, Inc., Dallas, TX (United States)

1994-12-31

The evaluation of investments in longer term research and development in emerging technologies, because of the nature of such subjects, must address inherent uncertainties. Most notably, future cash flow forecasts include substantial uncertainties. Conventional present value methodology, when applied to emerging technologies severely penalizes cash flow forecasts, and strategic investment opportunities are at risk of being neglected. Use of options valuation methodology adapted from the financial arena has been introduced as having applicability in such technology evaluations. Indeed, characteristics of superconducting magnetic energy storage technology suggest that it is a candidate for the use of options methodology when investment decisions are being contemplated.

Financial options methodology for analyzing investments in new technology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wenning, B.D.

1994-01-01

The evaluation of investments in longer term research and development in emerging technologies, because of the nature of such subjects, must address inherent uncertainties. Most notably, future cash flow forecasts include substantial uncertainties. Conventional present value methodology, when applied to emerging technologies severely penalizes cash flow forecasts, and strategic investment opportunities are at risk of being neglected. Use of options valuation methodology adapted from the financial arena has been introduced as having applicability in such technology evaluations. Indeed, characteristics of superconducting magnetic energy storage technology suggest that it is a candidate for the use of options methodology when investment decisions are being contemplated

Towards resiliency with micro-grids: Portfolio optimization and investment under uncertainty

Science.gov (United States)

Gharieh, Kaveh

Energy security and sustained supply of power are critical for community welfare and economic growth. In the face of the increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather conditions which can result in power grid outage, the value of micro-grids to improve the communities' power reliability and resiliency is becoming more important. Micro-grids capability to operate in islanded mode in stressed-out conditions, dramatically decreases the economic loss of critical infrastructure in power shortage occasions. More wide-spread participation of micro-grids in the wholesale energy market in near future, makes the development of new investment models necessary. However, market and price risks in short term and long term along with risk factors' impacts shall be taken into consideration in development of new investment models. This work proposes a set of models and tools to address different problems associated with micro-grid assets including optimal portfolio selection, investment and financing in both community and a sample critical infrastructure (i.e. wastewater treatment plant) levels. The models account for short-term operational volatilities and long-term market uncertainties. A number of analytical methodologies and financial concepts have been adopted to develop the aforementioned models as follows. (1) Capital budgeting planning and portfolio optimization models with Monte Carlo stochastic scenario generation are applied to derive the optimal investment decision for a portfolio of micro-grid assets considering risk factors and multiple sources of uncertainties. (2) Real Option theory, Monte Carlo simulation and stochastic optimization techniques are applied to obtain optimal modularized investment decisions for hydrogen tri-generation systems in wastewater treatment facilities, considering multiple sources of uncertainty. (3) Public Private Partnership (PPP) financing concept coupled with investment horizon approach are applied to estimate public and private

The costs of electricity systems with a high share of fluctutating renewables. A stochastic investment and dispatch optimization model for Europe

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nagl, Stephan; Fuersch, Michaela; Lindenberger, Dietmar

2012-01-01

Renewable energies are meant to produce a large share of the future electricity demand. However, the availability of wind and solar power depends on local weather conditions and therefore weather characteristics must be considered when optimizing the future electricity mix. In this article we analyze the impact of the stochastic availability of wind and solar energy on the cost-minimal power plant mix and the related total system costs. To determine optimal conventional, renewable and storage capacities for different shares of renewables, we apply a stochastic investment and dispatch optimization model to the European electricity market. The model considers stochastic feed-in structures and full load hours of wind and solar technologies and different correlations between regions and technologies. Key findings include the overestimation of fluctuating renewables and underestimation of total system costs compared to deterministic investment and dispatch models. Furthermore, solar technologies are - relative to wind turbines - underestimated when neglecting negative correlations between wind speeds and solar radiation.

Optimization of the investment casting process

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Martinez-Hernandez

2012-04-01

Full Text Available Rapid prototyping is an important technique for manufacturing. This work refers to the manufacture of hollow patterns made of polymeric materials by rapid prototyping technologies for its use in the preparation of ceramic molds in the investment casting process. This work is focused on the development of a process for manufacturing patterns different from those that currently exist due to its hollow interior design, allowing its direct use in the fabrication of ceramic molds; avoiding cracking and fracture during the investment casting process, which is an important process for the foundry industry.

\\t Capital Planning and Investment Control (CPIC) for the Management of Information Technology Investments

Science.gov (United States)

Capital Planning and Investment Control (CPIC) is the Information Technology (IT) governance and management methodology in use at EPA for selecting, controlling and evaluating the performance of EPA IT investments throughout the full lifecycle.

Design of investment management optimization system for power grid companies under new electricity reform

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Chunhui; Su, Zhixiong; Wang, Xin; Liu, Yang; Qi, Yongwei

2017-03-01

The new normalization of the economic situation and the implementation of a new round of electric power system reform put forward higher requirements to the daily operation of power grid companies. As an important day-to-day operation of power grid companies, investment management is directly related to the promotion of the company's operating efficiency and management level. In this context, the establishment of power grid company investment management optimization system will help to improve the level of investment management and control the company, which is of great significance for power gird companies to adapt to market environment changing as soon as possible and meet the policy environment requirements. Therefore, the purpose of this paper is to construct the investment management optimization system of power grid companies, which includes investment management system, investment process control system, investment structure optimization system, and investment project evaluation system and investment management information platform support system.

Exploring the evolution of investment pattern on advanced manufacturing technology

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Yang, Cheng; Matthiesen, Rikke Vestergaard; Johansen, John

2014-01-01

This paper explores the evolution of investment pattern on advanced manufacturing technology in a manner that builds on a longitudinal perspective. Based on the data of investments in AMTs from 567 manufacturing companies this paper develops a longitudinal taxonomy defined by the evolution of inv...... of technology management, which is comprised primarily of cross-sectional studies that do not address the dynamic nature of investments in AMTs.......This paper explores the evolution of investment pattern on advanced manufacturing technology in a manner that builds on a longitudinal perspective. Based on the data of investments in AMTs from 567 manufacturing companies this paper develops a longitudinal taxonomy defined by the evolution...... of investment patterns on AMT followed by companies over time; identifies the possible evolutionary features of different groups of companies; and suggests the possible explanatory and outcome factors on the evolution of investment pattern on AMTs. By doing so, this study seeks to fill a void in the area...

Choosing the right amount of healthcare information technologies investments.

Science.gov (United States)

Meyer, Rodolphe; Degoulet, Patrice

2010-04-01

Choosing and justifying the right amount of investment in healthcare information technologies (HITECH or HIT) in hospitals is an ever increasing challenge. Our objectives are to assess the financial impact of HIT on hospital outcome, and propose decision-helping tools that could be used to rationalize the distribution of hospital finances. We used a production function and microeconomic tools on data of 21 Paris university hospitals recorded from 1998 to 2006 to compute the elasticity coefficients of HIT versus non-HIT capital and labor as regards to hospital financial outcome and optimize the distribution of investments according to the productivity associated with each input. HIT inputs and non-HIT inputs both have a positive and significant impact on hospital production (elasticity coefficients respectively of 0.106 and 0.893; R(2) of 0.92). We forecast 2006 results from the 1998 to 2005 dataset with an accuracy of +0.61%. With the model used, the best proportion of HIT investments was estimated to be 10.6% of total input and this was predicted to lead to a total saving of 388 million Euros for the 2006 dataset. Considering HIT investment from the point of view of a global portfolio and applying econometric and microeconomic tools allow the required confidence level to be attained for choosing the right amount of HIT investments. It could also allow hospitals using these tools to make substantial savings, and help them forecast their choices for the following year for better HITECH governance in the current stimulation context. (c) 2010 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Investment appraisal of technology innovations on dairy farm electricity consumption.

Science.gov (United States)

Upton, J; Murphy, M; De Boer, I J M; Groot Koerkamp, P W G; Berentsen, P B M; Shalloo, L

2015-02-01

The aim of this study was to conduct an investment appraisal for milk-cooling, water-heating, and milk-harvesting technologies on a range of farm sizes in 2 different electricity-pricing environments. This was achieved by using a model for electricity consumption on dairy farms. The model simulated the effect of 6 technology investment scenarios on the electricity consumption and electricity costs of the 3 largest electricity-consuming systems within the dairy farm (i.e., milk-cooling, water-heating, and milking machine systems). The technology investment scenarios were direct expansion milk-cooling, ice bank milk-cooling, milk precooling, solar water-heating, and variable speed drive vacuum pump-milking systems. A dairy farm profitability calculator was combined with the electricity consumption model to assess the effect of each investment scenario on the total discounted net income over a 10-yr period subsequent to the investment taking place. Included in the calculation were the initial investments, which were depreciated to zero over the 10-yr period. The return on additional investment for 5 investment scenarios compared with a base scenario was computed as the investment appraisal metric. The results of this study showed that the highest return on investment figures were realized by using a direct expansion milk-cooling system with precooling of milk to 15°C with water before milk entry to the storage tank, heating water with an electrical water-heating system, and using standard vacuum pump control on the milking system. Return on investment figures did not exceed the suggested hurdle rate of 10% for any of the ice bank scenarios, making the ice bank system reliant on a grant aid framework to reduce the initial capital investment and improve the return on investment. The solar water-heating and variable speed drive vacuum pump scenarios failed to produce positive return on investment figures on any of the 3 farm sizes considered on either the day and night

Essays in Investment Theory

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bobtcheff, C.

2006-01-01

This thesis analyzes different aspects of the investment decision. In the first chapter, we consider an economy in which different energy sources may produce electricity. The model focuses first on the optimal use of a hydroelectric dam from which water can be extracted and which is supplied with a random water flow. The presence of constraints on a minimal and on a maximal storage capacity makes electricity consumption smoothing possible only when the quantity of water available to the agent lies in a certain range that we determine. In a second stage, we introduce a second energy source with unlimited supply at some exogenous cost. The marginal propensity to produce hydroelectricity is an increasing function of the second technology cost. The availability at a low cost of the alternative source improves thus time diversification. Finally, the optimal electric park is composed of a number of dams that is increasing with the cost of the second technology. Chapter 2 studies the decision of an investor who wants to undertake an irreversible investment when he has the choice between two mutually exclusive projects that present input price and/or output price uncertainty. We prove that the investor decides not to invest in any project when each investment generates the same payoff independently of its size. Therefore, some inaction region appears in which the investor prefers not to invest whereas an immediate investment would have been optimal if no choice had been available: a 'choice value' is thus created. A key feature of this bidimensional degree of uncertainty is thus that the payoff generated by each project is not a sufficient statistic to make a rational investment. In this context, our analysis provides a new motive for waiting to invest: the benefits associated with the dominance of one project over the other. In chapter 3, we study the investment decision problem of a duo-poly with price competition on a market of finite size driven by stochastic taste

NASA ESTO Lidar Technologies Investment Strategy: 2016 Decadal Update

Science.gov (United States)

Valinia, Azita; Komar, George J.; Tratt, David M.; Lotshaw, William T.; Gaab, Kevin M.

2017-01-01

The NASA Earth Science Technology Office (ESTO) recently updated its investment strategy in the area of lidar technologies as it pertains to NASA's Earth Science measurement goals in the next decade. The last ESTO lidar strategy was documented in 2006. The current (2016) report assesses the state-of-the-art in lidar technologies a decade later. Lidar technology maturation in the past decade has been evaluated, and the ESTO investment strategy is updated and laid out in this report according to current NASA Earth science measurement needs and new emerging technologies.

R and D investment strategy for climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Blanford, Geoffrey J.

2009-01-01

The economic costs of stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations over the coming century depend critically on the development of new technologies in the energy sector. Our research and development (R and D) investment strategy is the control variable for technology availability. This paper proposes an analytic framework for determining optimal R and D investment allocation and presents some numerical results to demonstrate the implementation of the methodology. The value of technological advance in three targeted areas-fossil-based generation, renewables, and carbon capture and storage-is represented by the increase in expected welfare in the presence of an emissions policy constraint of initially uncertain stringency. R and D expenditure increases the probability of advance. Optimal investment is determined by its relationship with success probability, which is assumed to exhibit decreasing returns to scale, relative to the value of success. While the numerical results are speculative, the paper offers insights into the nature of an optimal technology strategy for addressing climate change. (author)

Structure Optimization of Safety Investment of Petrochemical Port Enterprises

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zhiqiang Hou

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Safety investment is an essential guarantee to identify and manage potential security problems in petrochemical port enterprises. The reasonability of safety investment structure determines overall security risks in an enterprise. Based on the definition of risks, combining Cobb-Douglas production function with FTA probability model, and taking Gompertz curve model as the constraint condition, structure optimization model of safety investment is built in order to minimize risks and work out the safety investment structure of petrochemical port enterprises. According to the case study, the calculations indicate that safety investment in corporate management presents a larger growth rate than past years and that unsafe act of human being is the main factor accounting for the greatest probability of occurrence, which is consistent with previous accident investigation results as well as enterprise reality. This testifies that the model is effective and that the results can guide the allocation of safety investment of petrochemical port enterprises scientifically.

CREATION OF OPTIMAL PERFORMANCE OF AN INVESTMENT PROJECT

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Višnja Vojvodić Rosenzweig

2010-12-01

Full Text Available The selection of an investment project is formulated as a multi-criteria decision-making problem. This paper presents a case in which the decision-maker uses nine criteria or rather attributes (Net Present Value, Internal Rate of Return, Payback Period, Accounting Rate of Return, Cumulative Cash Flows, Return on Investment, Net Profit Margin, Interest Coverage Ratio and Current Ratio. Individual utility functions are constructed for each attribute separately, as well as a global utility function representing a weighted sum of individual utility functions. For every attribute a finite set of ordered pairs or utility points is determined, taking into account the decision-maker’s assessment. The given points are then approximated by the utility function. Finally, according to the decision-maker’s assessment the optimization problem is solved with the purpose of achieving an optimal performance for each project. By way of negotiation the performances on offer approach the optimal performance of the project with the purpose of realising an agreement between the decision-maker and the investor.

Optimal Investment-Consumption Strategy under Inflation in a Markovian Regime-Switching Market

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Huiling Wu

2016-01-01

Full Text Available This paper studies an investment-consumption problem under inflation. The consumption price level, the prices of the available assets, and the coefficient of the power utility are assumed to be sensitive to the states of underlying economy modulated by a continuous-time Markovian chain. The definition of admissible strategies and the verification theory corresponding to this stochastic control problem are presented. The analytical expression of the optimal investment strategy is derived. The existence, boundedness, and feasibility of the optimal consumption are proven. Finally, we analyze in detail by mathematical and numerical analysis how the risk aversion, the correlation coefficient between the inflation and the stock price, the inflation parameters, and the coefficient of utility affect the optimal investment and consumption strategy.

State-of-the-art research: optimal investment in market-based electric power systems

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hope, Einar; Skjeret, Frode

2008-04-15

The purpose of this state-of-the-art research paper is to surveying the literature on investment in market based electric power systems as a background for identifying and discussing some important issues in the optimal design and operation of such systems. A fundamental distinction has to be made between investment in the competitive part of the power system (generation and trading) on the one hand and the natural monopoly part (network infrastructure) on the other. The paper starts with a listing and discussion on market characteristics and properties of electric power and goes on to discussing performance criteria and potential sources of market failure for optimal electric power investment. After the literature survey there is a discussion of conditions under which optimal investment may occur. (author). 78 refs., figs

Reform of investment policy in the function of sustainable development with special emphasis on investment in information technologies

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dragičević-Radičević Tatjana

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Global economy still records a decline in FDI. The main causes are increased economic instability and geopolitical risks. Given the continued negative trend, it is clear that it is necessary to reform the investment policies at the national, regional, bilateral, multilateral and international level, to ensure sustainable economic development. Key elements of the reforms are: to provide instruments to reduce risks, create mechanisms of responsible investment, improve the structural coherence and promote regional investments. Refer to the current dates of the sectors investments (according to the report of UNCTAD from 2015th shows that the services sector recorded double growth compared to the investment in the manufacturing sector in 2012. Also, if we take into consideration the fact that investment in IT sector investment involves three aspects: transactional (minimizing costs, strategic (innovation technologies, achieving competitiveness and information (improving access to information and communications, it may be assumed that the reforms in the investment policies should be directly correlated with investments in information technology.

Optimal Investment Planning of Bulk Energy Storage Systems

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dina Khastieva

2018-02-01

Full Text Available Many countries have the ambition to increase the share of renewable sources in electricity generation. However, continuously varying renewable sources, such as wind power or solar energy, require that the power system can manage the variability and uncertainty of the power generation. One solution to increase flexibility of the system is to use various forms of energy storage, which can provide flexibility to the system at different time ranges and smooth the effect of variability of the renewable generation. In this paper, we investigate three questions connected to investment planning of energy storage systems. First, how the existing flexibility in the system will affect the need for energy storage investments. Second, how presence of energy storage will affect renewable generation expansion and affect electricity prices. Third, who should be responsible for energy storage investments planning. This paper proposes to assess these questions through two different mathematical models. The first model is designed for centralized investment planning and the second model deals with a decentralized investment approach where a single independent profit maximizing utility is responsible for energy storage investments. The models have been applied in various case studies with different generation mixes and flexibility levels. The results show that energy storage system is beneficial for power system operation. However, additional regulation should be considered to achieve optimal investment and allocation of energy storage.

Using genetic algorithms to determine near-optimal pricing, investment and operating strategies in the electric power industry

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Dongjun

Network industries have technologies characterized by a spatial hierarchy, the "network," with capital-intensive interconnections and time-dependent, capacity-limited flows of products and services through the network to customers. This dissertation studies service pricing, investment and business operating strategies for the electric power network. First-best solutions for a variety of pricing and investment problems have been studied. The evaluation of genetic algorithms (GA, which are methods based on the idea of natural evolution) as a primary means of solving complicated network problems, both w.r.t. pricing: as well as w.r.t. investment and other operating decisions, has been conducted. New constraint-handling techniques in GAs have been studied and tested. The actual application of such constraint-handling techniques in solving practical non-linear optimization problems has been tested on several complex network design problems with encouraging initial results. Genetic algorithms provide solutions that are feasible and close to optimal when the optimal solution is know; in some instances, the near-optimal solutions for small problems by the proposed GA approach can only be tested by pushing the limits of currently available non-linear optimization software. The performance is far better than several commercially available GA programs, which are generally inadequate in solving any of the problems studied in this dissertation, primarily because of their poor handling of constraints. Genetic algorithms, if carefully designed, seem very promising in solving difficult problems which are intractable by traditional analytic methods.

Managerial optimism and the impact of cash flow sensitivity on corporate investment: The case of Greece

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dimitrios I. Maditinos

2015-10-01

Full Text Available Purpose - The existence of optimism as a personal psychological characteristic of managers is a necessity in contemporary economy and decision making, although the phenomenon of over-optimism may lead to unfavourable outcomes. The purpose of this study is to examine the optimism bias and its impact on the firms' future performance. Especially regarding the recent years where Greece faces increased economic depression, high percentages of unemployment and lack of budgetary discipline, the goal is therefore, to find whether managerial optimism has an impact on corporate investment of Greek firms. Design/methodology/approach - The investment of firms with optimistic managers is more sensitive to cash flow than the investment of firms with managers who are not optimistic. To test the research question a number of fixed effect panel regressions of capital expenditures (capital expenditures divided by lagged assets is the dependent variable is run. In all regressions we analyse cash flow divided by lagged assets and lagged Tobin's Q as the independent variables, for firms whose managers are classified as optimistic and not optimistic. This classification is based on the optimism "dummy" variable, which is equal to 1 when members of the Executive Board and the Supervisory Board (ALL, only the Executive Board (EB, and only CEO are classified as optimistic. The concept of this study is tested for firms which are listed in the Athens Stock Exchange. A total of 243 firms are recorded, for the time period between 2007 and 2012, including firms from 11 different industries; basic materials, chemicals, consumer goods, consumer services, health care, industrials, financials, oil and gas, technology, telecommunications and utilities. Based on the literature and on related methodology aspects, financial firms are excluded. Findings - It was revealed that managerial optimism affects corporate investment in firms with high degree of closely held shares. Moreover

R & D STRATEGIC INVESTMENT IN AN ASYMMETRICAL CASE

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

Minggao XUE; Pu GONG

2006-01-01

This article analyzes R & D investment decisions in an asymmetrical case. The investment decisions share three important characteristics. First, the investment is completely irreversible. Second,there are two kinds of uncertainties over the future returns from the investment and over technology in R & D process, respectively. Third, there is strategic competition in the asymmetrical case. This article presents the optimal investment threshold values and the optimal investment rule of high-efficient firm (leader), and shows that the investment threshold values are reduced by competition of two firms.Finally, the mixed investment strategies for two firms, the probability that each firm separately exercises the option to invest, and the probability that two firms simultaneously exercise the option are given in the paper.

Marshall Space Flight Center Technology Investments Overview

Science.gov (United States)

Tinker, Mike

2014-01-01

NASA is moving forward with prioritized technology investments that will support NASA's exploration and science missions, while benefiting other Government agencies and the U.S. aerospace enterprise. center dotThe plan provides the guidance for NASA's space technology investments during the next four years, within the context of a 20-year horizon center dotThis plan will help ensure that NASA develops technologies that enable its 4 goals to: 1.Sustain and extend human activities in space, 2.Explore the structure, origin, and evolution of the solar system, and search for life past and present, 3.Expand our understanding of the Earth and the universe and have a direct and measurable impact on how we work and live, and 4.Energize domestic space enterprise and extend benefits of space for the Nation.

The Investments in Renewable Energy Sources: Do Low Carbon Economies Better Invest in Green Technologies?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Antonio Angelo Romano

2011-01-01

Full Text Available The aim of this study is to analyse the driving of investment in renewable energy sources in low carbon and high carbon economies. To address these issues, a dynamic panel analysis of the renewable investment in a sample of 29 countries was proposed. Results demonstrate that the dynamic of investments in renewable sources is similar in the two panels, and depends by nuclear power generation, GDP and technological efficiency. Results show that countries try to reduce their environmental footprint, decreasing the CO2 intensity. Based on the estimation results, we think that energy sustainability passes through the use of renewable resources that can complement the nuclear technology on condition that both exceed their limits.

Optimal Consumption and Investment under Time-Varying Relative Risk Aversion

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Steffensen, Mogens

2011-01-01

We consider the continuous time consumption-investment problem originally formalized and solved by Merton in case of constant relative risk aversion. We present a complete solution for the case where relative risk aversion with respect to consumption varies with time, having in mind an investor...... with age-dependent risk aversion. This provides a new motivation for life-cycle investment rules. We study the optimal consumption and investment rules, in particular in the case where the relative risk aversion with respect to consumption is increasing with age....

Optimal Portfolio of Corporate Investment and Consumption Problem under Market Closure: Inflation Case

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zongyuan Huang

2013-01-01

Full Text Available We present the model of corporate optimal investment with consideration of the influence of inflation and the difference between the market opening and market closure. In our model, the investor has three market activities of his or her choice: investment in project A, investment in project B, and consumption. The optimal strategy for the investor is obtained using the Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation which is derived using the dynamic programming principle. Further along, a specific case, the Hyperbolic Absolute Risk Aversion case, is discussed in detail, where the explicit optimal strategy can be obtained using a very simple and direct method. At the very end, we present some simulation results along with a brief analysis of the relationship between the optimal strategy and other factors.

Two-part payments for the reimbursement of investments in health technologies.

Science.gov (United States)

Levaggi, Rosella; Moretto, Michele; Pertile, Paolo

2014-04-01

The paper studies the impact of alternative reimbursement systems on two provider decisions: whether to adopt a technology whose provision requires a sunk investment cost and how many patients to treat with it. Using a simple economic model we show that the optimal pricing policy involves a two-part payment: a price equal to the marginal cost of the patient whose benefit of treatment equals the cost of provision, and a separate payment for the partial reimbursement of capital costs. Departures from this scheme, which are frequent in DRG tariff systems designed around the world, lead to a trade-off between the objective of making effective technologies available to patients and the need to ensure appropriateness in use. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Brazilian investment in science and technology

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Pinheiro-Machado R.

2001-01-01

Full Text Available An analysis of Brazilian federal expenditures in science and technology is presented is this study. The 1990-1999 data were compiled from records provided by two federal agencies (MCT and CNPq responsible for managing most of the national budget related to these activities. The results indicate that the federal investments in Brazilian science and technology stagnated during the last decade (US$ 2.32 billion in 1990, US$ 2.39 billion in 1996, and US$ 2.36 billion in 1999. In contrast, a great increase in private investments in research was acknowledged both by industry and by the government during the same period, from US$ 2.12 to US$ 4.64 billion. However, this investment did not result in an increase in invention patents granted to residents (492 in 1990 and only 232 in 1997 or in a reduction of patent costs. Despite this unfavorable scenario, the number of graduate programs in the country has increased two-fold in the last decade and the contribution of Brazilians to the database of the Institute for Scientific Information has increased 4.7-fold from 1990 (2,725 scientific publications to 2000 (12,686 scientific publications. Unstable federal resources for science, together with the poor returns of private resources in terms of developing new technologies, may jeopardize the future of Brazilian technological development.

Optimal investment and consumption when allowing terminal debt

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Chen, A.; Vellekoop, M.

2017-01-01

We analyze a dynamic optimization problem which involves the consumption and investment of an investor with constant relative risk aversion for consumption but with a risk aversion for final wealth which does not necessarily imply that terminal wealth must always be positive. We require risk

Optimizing an Investment Solution in Conditions of Uncertainty and Risk as a Multicriterial Task

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kotsyuba Oleksiy S.

2017-10-01

Full Text Available The article is concerned with the methodology for optimizing investment decisions in conditions of uncertainty and risk. The subject area of the study relates, first of all, to real investment. The problem of modeling an optimal investment solution is considered to be a multicriterial task. Also, the constructive part of the publication is based on the position that the multicriteriality of objectives of investment projecting is the result, first, of the complex nature of the category of economic attractiveness (efficiency of real investment, and secondly, of the need to take into account the risk factor, which is a vector measure, in the preparation of an investment solution. An attempt has been made to develop an instrumentarium to optimize investment decisions in a situation of uncertainty and the risk it engenders, based on the use of roll-up of the local criteria. As a result of its implementation, a model has been proposed, which has the advantage that it takes into account, to a greater extent than is the case for standardized roll-up options, the contensive and formal features of the local (detailed criteria.

New drilling optimization technologies make drilling more efficient

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Chen, D.C.-K. [Halliburton Energy Services, Calgary, AB (Canada). Sperry Division

2004-07-01

Several new technologies have been adopted by the upstream petroleum industry in the past two decades in order to optimize drilling operations and improve drilling efficiency. Since financial returns from an oil and gas investment strongly depend on drilling costs, it is important to reduce non-productive time due to stuck pipes, lost circulation, hole cleaning and well bore stability problems. The most notable new technologies are the use of computer-based instrumentation and data acquisition systems, integrated rig site systems and networks, and Measurement-While-Drilling and Logging-While-Drilling (MWD/LWD) systems. Drilling optimization should include solutions for drillstring integrity, hydraulics management and wellbore integrity. New drilling optimization methods emphasize information management and real-time decision making. A recent study for drilling in shallow water in the Gulf of Mexico demonstrates that trouble time accounts for 25 per cent of rig time. This translates to about $1.5 MM U.S. per well. A reduction in trouble time could result in significant cost savings for the industry. This paper presents a case study on vibration prevention to demonstrate how the drilling industry has benefited from new technologies. 13 refs., 10 figs.

A boom in energy technology innovation despite decades of stagnant investment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bettencourt, Luis M [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Trancik, Jessika A [SANTA FE INSTITUTE; Kaur, Jasleen [INDIANA UNIV

2009-01-01

Rates of patenting in energy technologies in the United States stagnated during a period of low federal investment in the sector from the mid-1980's through 2000. To analyze the current state of the field, we built a new comprehensive database of energy patents in the USA and worldwide aggregated by nation and technology. We show that innovation in energy technologies, as measured by numbers of new patents, has grown dramatically over the last decade both for renewable and fossil fuel-based technologies, but that traditional investment -government and private support for research and development (R&D) -has not risen commensurately. We also show that while venture capital investment in the sector has increased significantly in the last few years it lags the observed uptick in patenting. We find increasing patenting rates in nations worldwide but also differences in regional priorities, as well as a marked divergence in innovation rates across technologies. Renewable energy technologies - especially solar and wind - currently show the fastest rates of innovation, while patenting levels in nuclear fission have remained low despite relatively high levels of sustained investment. While this sharp increase of innovative activity bodes well for change in the energy sector, the future of emerging technologies may hinge on sustained investment in R&D and favorable incentives for market entry.

Investment in risky R and D programs in the face of climate uncertainty

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Baker, Erin; Adu-Bonnah, Kwame

2008-01-01

We analyze how the socially optimal technology R and D investment changes with the risk-profile of the R and D program and with uncertainty about climate damages. We show that how technology is represented in the model is crucial to the results; and that uncertainty in damages interacts with uncertainty in the returns to R and D. We consider R and D that reduces the cost of abatement multiplicatively, and argue that this is a good representation of R and D into non-carbon technologies; and R and D that reduces the emissions-to-output ratio, and argue that this is a good representation of R and D into fossil fuel technologies. For R and D programs into non-carbon technologies, optimal investment is higher in riskier programs. Our empirical model indicates that the optimal investment in a risky program is about 3 1/2 times larger than in a program with certain returns. For R and D programs aimed at reducing emissions in fossil fuel based technologies, our results show that, qualitatively, investment is higher in less risky programs under most uncertain damage scenarios. Our empirical model shows, however, that the risk-profile of fossil fuel based R and D programs generally has little quantitative impact on optimal investment. The exception is that when the probability of a catastrophe inducing full abatement is very high, investment is about twice as high in risky programs compared to programs with certain returns. (author)

An Optimal Stochastic Investment and Consumption Strategy with ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

This paper considers a single investor who owns a production plant that generates units of consumption goods in a capitalist economy. The goal is to choose optimal investment and consumption policies that maximize the finite horizon expected discounted logarithmic utility of consumption and terminal wealth. A dynamical ...

Optimal investment strategies and hedging of derivatives in the presence of transaction costs (Invited Paper)

Science.gov (United States)

Muratore-Ginanneschi, Paolo

2005-05-01

Investment strategies in multiplicative Markovian market models with transaction costs are defined using growth optimal criteria. The optimal strategy is shown to consist in holding the amount of capital invested in stocks within an interval around an ideal optimal investment. The size of the holding interval is determined by the intensity of the transaction costs and the time horizon. The inclusion of financial derivatives in the models is also considered. All the results presented in this contributions were previously derived in collaboration with E. Aurell.

State investments in high-technology job growth.

Science.gov (United States)

Leicht, Kevin T; Jenkins, J Craig

2017-07-01

Since the early 1970's state and local governments have launched an array of economic development programs designed to promote high-technology development. The question our analysis addresses is whether these programs promote long-term high-technology employment growth net of state location and agglomeration advantages. Proponents talk about an infrastructure strategy that promotes investment in public research and specialized infrastructure to attract and grow new high technology industries in specific locations, and a more decentralized entrepreneurial strategy that reinforces local agglomeration capacities by investing in new enterprises and products, promoting the development of local networks and partnerships. Our results support the entrepreneurial strategy, suggesting that state governments can accelerate high technology development by adopting market-supportive programs that complement private sector initiatives. In addition to positive direct benefits of technology deployment/transfer programs and SBIR programs, entrepreneurial programs affect change in high-technology employment in concert with existing locational and agglomeration advantages. Rural (i.e. low population density) states tend to benefit by technology development programs. Infrastructure strategy programs also facilitate high technology job growth in places where local advantages already exist. Our results suggest that critics of industrial policy are correct that high technology growth is organic and endogenous, yet state governments are able to "pick winners and losers" in ways that grow their local economy. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Worst-Case Investment and Reinsurance Optimization for an Insurer under Model Uncertainty

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xiangbo Meng

2016-01-01

Full Text Available In this paper, we study optimal investment-reinsurance strategies for an insurer who faces model uncertainty. The insurer is allowed to acquire new business and invest into a financial market which consists of one risk-free asset and one risky asset whose price process is modeled by a Geometric Brownian motion. Minimizing the expected quadratic distance of the terminal wealth to a given benchmark under the “worst-case” scenario, we obtain the closed-form expressions of optimal strategies and the corresponding value function by solving the Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman (HJB equation. Numerical examples are presented to show the impact of model parameters on the optimal strategies.

The CEV Model and Its Application in a Study of Optimal Investment Strategy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Aiyin Wang

2014-01-01

Full Text Available The constant elasticity of variance (CEV model is used to describe the price of the risky asset. Maximizing the expected utility relating to the Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman (HJB equation which describes the optimal investment strategies, we obtain a partial differential equation. Applying the Legendre transform, we transform the equation into a dual problem and obtain an approximation solution and an optimal investment strategies for the exponential utility function.

INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY IN INVESTMENT PROJECT MANAGEMENT

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vjacheslav A. Kozlov

2014-01-01

Full Text Available In the article it is proved that use of information technology today is not only something innovative distinctive feature and competitive advantage for organizations, but it is a necessary condition for effective business. The article discusses the main functionality of financial-analytical system Project Expert as an effective tool of investment project management and instrument of business planning. The main advantages which organizations get from Project Expert program use are in detail considered. Thus in the article Project Expert is considered as the effective tool of investment project management which allows to receive a number of advantages and to carry out the qualitative analysis of projects.

Optimal Investment and Reinsurance for Insurers with Uncertain Time-Horizon

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ailing Gu

2014-01-01

state hits the barrier. The objective of the insurer is to maximize the expected discounted exponential utility of her terminal wealth. By dynamic programming approach and Feynman-Kac representation theorem, we derive the expressions for optimal value functions and optimal investment-reinsurance strategies in two special cases. Furthermore, an example is considered under the diffusion-approximation model, which shows some interesting results.

Initial investment to 3D printing technologies in a construction company

OpenAIRE

Cernohorsky, Zdenek; Matejka, Petr

2017-01-01

This article deals with an initial investment to 3D printing technologies in a construction company. The investment refers to the use of building information models and their integration with 3D printing technology within a construction company. In the first part, there will be discussed an introduction of 3D printing scheme in a construction company from a lifecycle perspective in general. As a part of this scheme, the ideal variant of an initial investment will be considered a.k.a a pilot p...

Delaying investments in sensor technology: The rationality of dairy farmers' investment decisions illustrated within the framework of real options theory.

Science.gov (United States)

Rutten, C J; Steeneveld, W; Oude Lansink, A G J M; Hogeveen, H

2018-05-02

The adoption rate of sensors on dairy farms varies widely. Whereas some sensors are hardly adopted, others are adopted by many farmers. A potential rational explanation for the difference in adoption may be the expected future technological progress in the sensor technology and expected future improved decision support possibilities. For some sensors not much progress can be expected because the technology has already made enormous progress in recent years, whereas for sensors that have only recently been introduced on the market, much progress can be expected. The adoption of sensors may thus be partly explained by uncertainty about the investment decision, in which uncertainty lays in the future performance of the sensors and uncertainty about whether improved informed decision support will become available. The overall aim was to offer a plausible example of why a sensor may not be adopted now. To explain this, the role of uncertainty about technological progress in the investment decision was illustrated for highly adopted sensors (automated estrus detection) and hardly adopted sensors (automated body condition score). This theoretical illustration uses the real options theory, which accounts for the role of uncertainty in the timing of investment decisions. A discrete event model, simulating a farm of 100 dairy cows, was developed to estimate the net present value (NPV) of investing now and investing in 5 yr in both sensor systems. The results show that investing now in automated estrus detection resulted in a higher NPV than investing 5 yr from now, whereas for the automated body condition score postponing the investment resulted in a higher NPV compared with investing now. These results are in line with the observation that farmers postpone investments in sensors. Also, the current high adoption of automated estrus detection sensors can be explained because the NPV of investing now is higher than the NPV of investing in 5 yr. The results confirm that

The error of fixed strategies in IT innovation investment decisions

OpenAIRE

Häckel, Björn; Isakovic, Vasko; Moser, Florian

2013-01-01

Allocating an IT Innovation budget to technologies in different maturity stages (mature vs. fashionable IT innovations) is a demanding task for companies. Due to the dynamic innovation cycles with new emerging technologies, many IT innovation investment decisions follow a bandwagon behavior or fixed investment strategies. Instead of optimizing the IT innovation budget’s allocation to mature or fashionable IT innovations and following a mindful investment strategy, fixed strategies with naïve ...

Investments in technology subject to uncertainty. Analysis and policy

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pedersen, Jørgen Lindgaard

1997-01-01

Investments in technology are today of such a magnitude that it matters. In the paper there are three important questions. First on the question in which sense technological uncertainty can be said to be a problem. Second on strategies for diminishing technological uncertainties. Three on policy...

Do investment-specific technological changes matter for business fluctuations? Evidence from Japan

OpenAIRE

Hirose, Yasuo; Kurozumi, Takushi

2011-01-01

The observed decline in the relative price of investment goods to consumption goods in Japan suggests the existence of investment-specific technological (IST) changes. We examine whether IST changes are a major source of business fluctuations in Japan, by estimating a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with Bayesian methods. We show that IST changes are less important than neutral technological changes in explaining output fluctuations. We also demonstrate that investment fluctuatio...

Technology Transfer, Foreign Direct Investment and International Trade

OpenAIRE

Leonard K. Cheng

2000-01-01

By developing a Ricardian trade model that features technology transfer via foreign direct investment (FDI), we show that technology transfer via multinational enterprises (MNEs) increases world output and trade in goods and services. When there are many goods a continuous reduction in the cost of technology transfer will cause increasingly more technologically advanced goods to go through the product cycle, i.e., goods initially produced in the advanced North are later produced in the backwa...

Evaluation on Optimal Scale of Rural Fixed-asset Investment-Based on Microcosmic Perspective of Farmers’ Income Increase

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

Jinqian; DENG; Kangkang; SHAN; Yan; ZHANG

2014-01-01

The rural fundamental and productive fixed-asset investment not only makes active influence on the changes of farmers’ operational,wages and property income,but it also has an optimal scale range for farmers’ income increase. From the perspective of farmers’ income increase,this article evaluates the optimal scale of rural fixed-asset investment by setting up model with statistic data,and the results show that the optimal scale of per capita rural fixed-asset investment is 76. 35% of per capita net income of rural residents,which has been reached in China in 2009. Therefore,compared with the adding of rural fixed-asset investment,a better income increase effect can be achieved through the adjustment of rural fixed-asset investment structure.

Assessing the economic value of co-optimized grid-scale energy storage investments in supporting high renewable portfolio standards

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Go, Roderick S.; Munoz, Francisco D.; Watson, Jean-Paul

2016-01-01

Highlights: • We present a MILP to co-optimize generation, transmission, and storage investments. • We find significant value in co-optimized storage via investment deferrals. • Operational savings from bulk services are small relative to investment deferrals. • Co-optimized energy storage significantly reduces prices associated with RPS. - Abstract: Worldwide, environmental regulations such as Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPSs) are being broadly adopted to promote renewable energy investments. With corresponding increases in renewable energy deployments, there is growing interest in grid-scale energy storage systems (ESS) to provide the flexibility needed to efficiently deliver renewable power to consumers. Our contribution in this paper is to introduce a unified generation, transmission, and bulk ESS expansion planning model subject to an RPS constraint, formulated as a two-stage stochastic mixed-integer linear program (MILP) optimization model, which we then use to study the impact of co-optimization and evaluate the economic interaction between investments in these three asset classes in achieving high renewable penetrations. We present numerical case studies using the 24-bus IEEE RTS-96 test system considering wind and solar as available renewable energy resources, and demonstrate that up to $180 million/yr in total cost savings can result from the co-optimization of all three assets, relative to a situation in which no ESS investment options are available. Surprisingly, we find that co-optimized bulk ESS investments provide significant economic value through investment deferrals in transmission and generation capacity, but very little savings in operational cost. Finally, we observe that planning transmission and generation infrastructure first and later optimizing ESS investments—as is common in industry—captures at most 1.7% ($3 million/yr) of the savings that result from co-optimizing all assets simultaneously.

Optimal investment strategies in decentralized renewable power generation under uncertainty

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fleten, S.-E.; Maribu, K.M.; Wangensteen, I.

2007-01-01

This paper presents a method for evaluating investments in decentralized renewable power generation under price un certainty. The analysis is applicable for a client with an electricity load and a renewable resource that can be utilized for power generation. The investor has a deferrable opportunity to invest in one local power generating unit, with the objective to maximize the profits from the opportunity. Renewable electricity generation can serve local load when generation and load coincide in time, and surplus power can be exported to the grid. The problem is to find the price intervals and the capacity of the generator at which to invest. Results from a case with wind power generation for an office building suggests it is optimal to wait for higher prices than the net present value break-even price under price uncertainty, and that capacity choice can depend on the current market price and the price volatility. With low price volatility there can be more than one investment price interval for different units with intermediate waiting regions between them. High price volatility increases the value of the investment opportunity, and therefore makes it more attractive to postpone investment until larger units are profitable. (author)

Liquidity, Technological Opportunities, and the Stage Distribution of Venture Capital Investments.

Science.gov (United States)

Lahr, Henry; Mina, Andrea

2014-06-01

This paper explores the determinants of the stage distribution of European venture capital investments from 1990 to 2011. Consistent with liquidity risk theory, we find that the likelihood of investing in earlier stages increases relative to all private equity investments during liquidity crisis years. While liquidity is the main driver of acquisition investments and, to some extent, of expansion financings, technological opportunities are overall the main driver of early and late stage venture capital investments. In contrast to the dotcom crash, the recent financial crisis negatively affected the relative likelihood of expansion investments, but not of early and late stage investments.

Liquidity, Technological Opportunities, and the Stage Distribution of Venture Capital Investments

Science.gov (United States)

Lahr, Henry; Mina, Andrea

2014-01-01

This paper explores the determinants of the stage distribution of European venture capital investments from 1990 to 2011. Consistent with liquidity risk theory, we find that the likelihood of investing in earlier stages increases relative to all private equity investments during liquidity crisis years. While liquidity is the main driver of acquisition investments and, to some extent, of expansion financings, technological opportunities are overall the main driver of early and late stage venture capital investments. In contrast to the dotcom crash, the recent financial crisis negatively affected the relative likelihood of expansion investments, but not of early and late stage investments. PMID:26166906

An Optimal Investment Strategy and Multiperiod Deposit Insurance Pricing Model for Commercial Banks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Grant E. Muller

2018-01-01

Full Text Available We employ the method of stochastic optimal control to derive the optimal investment strategy for maximizing an expected exponential utility of a commercial bank’s capital at some future date T>0. In addition, we derive a multiperiod deposit insurance (DI pricing model that incorporates the explicit solution of the optimal control problem and an asset value reset rule comparable to the typical practice of insolvency resolution by insuring agencies. By way of numerical simulations, we study the effects of changes in the DI coverage horizon, the risk associated with the asset portfolio of the bank, and the bank’s initial leverage level (deposit-to-asset ratio on the DI premium while the optimal investment strategy is followed.

Mean-variance portfolio analysis data for optimizing community-based photovoltaic investment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mahmoud Shakouri

2016-03-01

Full Text Available The amount of electricity generated by Photovoltaic (PV systems is affected by factors such as shading, building orientation and roof slope. To increase electricity generation and reduce volatility in generation of PV systems, a portfolio of PV systems can be made which takes advantages of the potential synergy among neighboring buildings. This paper contains data supporting the research article entitled: PACPIM: new decision-support model of optimized portfolio analysis for community-based photovoltaic investment [1]. We present a set of data relating to physical properties of 24 houses in Oregon, USA, along with simulated hourly electricity data for the installed PV systems. The developed Matlab code to construct optimized portfolios is also provided in Supplementary materials. The application of these files can be generalized to variety of communities interested in investing on PV systems. Keywords: Community solar, Photovoltaic system, Portfolio theory, Energy optimization, Electricity volatility

Social rate of return to R&D on various energy technologies: Where should we invest more? A study of G7 countries

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Inglesi-Lotz, Roula

2017-01-01

The importance of investment in Research and Development (R&D) in the energy sector is indisputable especially considering the benefits of new technologies to sustainability, security and environmental protection. However, the nature and potential of various energy technologies that are capable of improving the energy and environmental conditions globally is a challenging task for governments and policy makers that have to make decisions on the allocation of funds in R&D. To do so, the optimal resource allocation to R&D should be determined by estimating the social rate of return for R&D investments. This paper aims to estimate the social rate of return of R&D on various energy applications and technologies such as energy efficiency, fossil fuels, renewable energy sources, and nuclear for the G7 countries. The results show that primarily R&D investment on Energy Efficiency technologies and Nuclear are the ones that yield high social benefits for all G7 countries while exactly the opposite holds for Fossil fuels. - Highlights: • Allocation of R&D funding in various energy technologies is a challenging task. • This can be done by estimating the social rate of return for R&D investments • We investigate various technologies’ social rate of return for the G7 countries. • R&D funding yields social benefits from energy efficiency and nuclear technologies. • R&D investment on fossil fuels has negative social rate of return.

Mode of foreign entry, technology transfer, and foreign direct investment policy

OpenAIRE

Mattoo, Aaditya; Olarreaga, Marcelo; Saggi, Kamal

2001-01-01

Foreign direct investment can take place through the direct entry of foreign firms or the acquisition of existing domestic firms. Mattoo, Olarreaga, and Saggi examine the preferences of a foreign firm and the host country government with respect to these two modes of foreign direct investment in the presence of costly technology transfer. The tradeoff between technology transfer and market...

How Korean Venture Capitals Invest In New Technology Ventures

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Youngkeun Choi

2013-01-01

Full Text Available In the entrepreneurship field, this study examines what kinds of external endorsements are helpful for venture capitals investment and the growth of new technology ventures in developing countries. This study uses the signalling theory and the methodologies of multiple regression and survival analysis with the panel data of the ventures in Korea. In the results, collaboration with business groups and certification of government are positively influential in attracting venture capitals’ investment, which accelerate the growth of new technology ventures. The practical implication for entrepreneurs is that they need to obtain the endorsement from business groups and governments strategically.

Optimizing investments in coupled offshore wind -electrolytic hydrogen storage systems in Denmark

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hou, Peng; Enevoldsen, Peter; Eichman, Joshua

2017-01-01

, electrolyzers, and hydrogen fuel cells is explored. This research reveals the investment potential of coupling offshore wind farms with different hydrogen systems. The benefits in terms of a return on investment are demonstrated with data from the Danish electricity markets. This research also investigates......In response to electricity markets with growing levels of wind energy production and varying electricity prices, this research examines incentives for investments in integrated renewable energy power systems. A strategy for using optimization methods for a power system consisting of wind turbines...

Information technology investments must deliver value

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schulz, Y.

1998-01-01

The value of information technology (IT) management for the petroleum industry was discussed. There are currently two points of view regarding the subject. Adherents of one view hold that the strategic uses of information technology are relevant to the oil and gas industry, while those opposed find no demonstrated connection between information technology investments and business results. This paper addresses the impact of the information paradox, but maintains that information technology is not only valuable but essential to the oil and gas industry. This paper maintains that whenever it is perceived as being of limited use and too expensive, it is usually because it is not well managed. Value management can and should lead to superior outcomes. Neither exploration, nor drilling nor production, nor marketing could exist without information technology as the value is imperative. To further make the case, the nature of information technology value management and the strategies required to achieve value from information technology are reviewed. figs

The economics of project analysis: Optimal investment criteria and methods of study

Science.gov (United States)

Scriven, M. C.

1979-01-01

Insight is provided toward the development of an optimal program for investment analysis of project proposals offering commercial potential and its components. This involves a critique of economic investment criteria viewed in relation to requirements of engineering economy analysis. An outline for a systems approach to project analysis is given Application of the Leontief input-output methodology to analysis of projects involving multiple processes and products is investigated. Effective application of elements of neoclassical economic theory to investment analysis of project components is demonstrated. Patterns of both static and dynamic activity levels are incorporated.

Optimization of investment portfolio weight of stocks affected by market index

Science.gov (United States)

Azizah, E.; Rusyaman, E.; Supian, S.

2017-01-01

Stock price assessment, selection of optimum combination, and measure the risk of a portfolio investment is one important issue for investors. In this paper single index model used for the assessment of the stock price, and formulation optimization model developed using Lagrange multiplier technique to determine the proportion of assets to be invested. The level of risk is estimated by using variance. These models are used to analyse the stock price data Lippo Bank and Bumi Putera.

Optimal investment and scheduling of distributed energy resources with uncertainty in electric vehicle driving schedules

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cardoso, G.; Stadler, M.; Bozchalui, M.C.; Sharma, R.; Marnay, C.; Barbosa-Póvoa, A.; Ferrão, P.

2014-01-01

The large scale penetration of electric vehicles (EVs) will introduce technical challenges to the distribution grid, but also carries the potential for vehicle-to-grid services. Namely, if available in large enough numbers, EVs can be used as a distributed energy resource (DER) and their presence can influence optimal DER investment and scheduling decisions in microgrids. In this work, a novel EV fleet aggregator model is introduced in a stochastic formulation of DER-CAM [1], an optimization tool used to address DER investment and scheduling problems. This is used to assess the impact of EV interconnections on optimal DER solutions considering uncertainty in EV driving schedules. Optimization results indicate that EVs can have a significant impact on DER investments, particularly if considering short payback periods. Furthermore, results suggest that uncertainty in driving schedules carries little significance to total energy costs, which is corroborated by results obtained using the stochastic formulation of the problem. - Highlights: • This paper introduces a new EV aggregator model in the DER-CAM model and expands it with a stochastic formulation. • The model is used to analyze the impact of EVs in DER investment decisions in a large office building. • The uncertainty in EV driving patterns is considered through scenarios based on data from a daily commute driving survey. • Results indicate that EVs have a significant impact in optimal DER decisions, particularly when looking at short payback periods. • Furthermore, results indicate that uncertainty in EV driving schedules has little impact on DER investment decisions

Forecasting of Power Grid Investment in China Based on Support Vector Machine Optimized by Differential Evolution Algorithm and Grey Wolf Optimization Algorithm

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shuyu Dai

2018-04-01

Full Text Available In recent years, the construction of China’s power grid has experienced rapid development, and its scale has leaped into the first place in the world. Accurate and effective prediction of power grid investment can not only help pool funds and rationally arrange investment in power grid construction, but also reduce capital costs and economic risks, which plays a crucial role in promoting power grid investment planning and construction process. In order to forecast the power grid investment of China accurately, firstly on the basis of analyzing the influencing factors of power grid investment, the influencing factors system for China’s power grid investment forecasting is constructed in this article. The method of grey relational analysis is used for screening the main influencing factors as the prediction model input. Then, a novel power grid investment prediction model based on DE-GWO-SVM (support vector machine optimized by differential evolution and grey wolf optimization algorithm is proposed. Next, two cases are taken for empirical analysis to prove that the DE-GWO-SVM model has strong generalization capacity and has achieved a good prediction effect for power grid investment forecasting in China. Finally, the DE-GWO-SVM model is adopted to forecast power grid investment in China from 2018 to 2022.

Optimal Operations and Resilient Investments in Steam Networks

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bungener, Stéphane L., E-mail: stephane.bungener@a3.epfl.ch [Industrial Process and Energy Systems Engineering, École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne, Lausanne (Switzerland); Van Eetvelde, Greet [Environmental and Spatial Management, Faculty of Engineering and Architecture, Ghent University, Ghent (Belgium); Maréchal, François [Industrial Process and Energy Systems Engineering, École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne, Lausanne (Switzerland)

2016-01-20

Steam is a key energy vector for industrial sites, most commonly used for process heating and cooling, cogeneration of heat and mechanical power as a motive fluid or for stripping. Steam networks are used to carry steam from producers to consumers and between pressure levels through letdowns and steam turbines. The steam producers (boilers, heat and power cogeneration units, heat exchangers, chemical reactors) should be sized to supply the consumers at nominal operating conditions as well as peak demand. First, this paper proposes an Mixed Integer Linear Programing formulation to optimize the operations of steam networks in normal operating conditions and exceptional demand (when operating reserves fall to zero), through the introduction of load shedding. Optimization of investments based on operational and investment costs are included in the formulation. Though rare, boiler failures can have a heavy impact on steam network operations and costs, leading to undercapacity and unit shutdowns. A method is therefore proposed to simulate steam network operations when facing boiler failures. Key performance indicators are introduced to quantify the network’s resilience. The proposed methods are applied and demonstrated in an industrial case study using industrial data. The results indicate the importance of oversizing key steam producing equipments and the value of industrial symbiosis to increase industrial site resilience.

Optimal Operations and Resilient Investments in Steam Networks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bungener, Stéphane L.; Van Eetvelde, Greet; Maréchal, François

2016-01-01

Steam is a key energy vector for industrial sites, most commonly used for process heating and cooling, cogeneration of heat and mechanical power as a motive fluid or for stripping. Steam networks are used to carry steam from producers to consumers and between pressure levels through letdowns and steam turbines. The steam producers (boilers, heat and power cogeneration units, heat exchangers, chemical reactors) should be sized to supply the consumers at nominal operating conditions as well as peak demand. First, this paper proposes an Mixed Integer Linear Programing formulation to optimize the operations of steam networks in normal operating conditions and exceptional demand (when operating reserves fall to zero), through the introduction of load shedding. Optimization of investments based on operational and investment costs are included in the formulation. Though rare, boiler failures can have a heavy impact on steam network operations and costs, leading to undercapacity and unit shutdowns. A method is therefore proposed to simulate steam network operations when facing boiler failures. Key performance indicators are introduced to quantify the network’s resilience. The proposed methods are applied and demonstrated in an industrial case study using industrial data. The results indicate the importance of oversizing key steam producing equipments and the value of industrial symbiosis to increase industrial site resilience.

Investment and Usage of New Technologies : Evidence from a Shared ATM Network

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Ferrari, S.; Verboven, F.L.; Degryse, H.A.

2007-01-01

When new technologies become available, it is not only essential that firms have the correct investment incentives, but often also that consumers make the proper usage decisions. This paper studies investment and usage in a shared ATM network. Be- cause all banks coordinate their ATM investment

Investment and Usage of New Technologies : Evidence from a Shared ATM Network

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Ferrari, S.; Verboven, F.L.; Degryse, H.A.

2008-01-01

When new technologies become available, it is not only essential that firms have the correct investment incentives, but often also that consumers make the proper usage decisions. This paper studies investment and usage in a shared ATM network. Be- cause all banks coordinate their ATM investment

Mean-variance portfolio analysis data for optimizing community-based photovoltaic investment.

Science.gov (United States)

Shakouri, Mahmoud; Lee, Hyun Woo

2016-03-01

The amount of electricity generated by Photovoltaic (PV) systems is affected by factors such as shading, building orientation and roof slope. To increase electricity generation and reduce volatility in generation of PV systems, a portfolio of PV systems can be made which takes advantages of the potential synergy among neighboring buildings. This paper contains data supporting the research article entitled: PACPIM: new decision-support model of optimized portfolio analysis for community-based photovoltaic investment [1]. We present a set of data relating to physical properties of 24 houses in Oregon, USA, along with simulated hourly electricity data for the installed PV systems. The developed Matlab code to construct optimized portfolios is also provided in . The application of these files can be generalized to variety of communities interested in investing on PV systems.

Optimal investment and scheduling of distributed energy resources with uncertainty in electric vehicles driving schedules

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Cardoso, Goncalo [Technical Univ. of Lisbon (Portugal); Stadler, Michael [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Center for Energy and Innovation Technologies (Austria); Bozchalui, Mohammed C. [NEC Laboratories American Inc., Irving, TX (United States); Sharma, Ratnesh [NEC Laboratories American Inc., Irving, TX (United States); Marnay, Chris [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Barbosa-Povoa, Ana [Technical Univ. of Lisbon (Portugal); Ferrao, Paulo [Technical Univ. of Lisbon (Portugal)

2013-12-06

The large scale penetration of electric vehicles (EVs) will introduce technical challenges to the distribution grid, but also carries the potential for vehicle-to-grid services. Namely, if available in large enough numbers, EVs can be used as a distributed energy resource (DER) and their presence can influence optimal DER investment and scheduling decisions in microgrids. In this work, a novel EV fleet aggregator model is introduced in a stochastic formulation of DER-CAM [1], an optimization tool used to address DER investment and scheduling problems. This is used to assess the impact of EV interconnections on optimal DER solutions considering uncertainty in EV driving schedules. Optimization results indicate that EVs can have a significant impact on DER investments, particularly if considering short payback periods. Furthermore, results suggest that uncertainty in driving schedules carries little significance to total energy costs, which is corroborated by results obtained using the stochastic formulation of the problem.

Research on the robust optimization of the enterprise's decision on the investment to the collaborative innovation: Under the risk constraints

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhou, Qing; Fang, Gang; Wang, Dong-peng; Yang, Wei

2016-01-01

Abstracts: The robust optimization model is applied to analyze the enterprise's decision of the investment portfolio for the collaborative innovation under the risk constraints. Through the mathematical model deduction and the simulation analysis, the research result shows that the enterprise's investment to the collaborative innovation has relatively obvious robust effect. As for the collaborative innovation, the return from the investment coexists with the risk of it. Under the risk constraints, the robust optimization method could solve the minimum risk as well as the proportion of each investment scheme in the portfolio on the condition of different target returns from the investment. On the basis of the result, the enterprise could balance between the investment return and risk and make optimal decision on the investment scheme.

Heat savings and heat generation technologies: Modelling of residential investment behaviour with local health costs

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Zvingilaite, Erika; Klinge Jacobsen, Henrik

2015-01-01

The trade-off between investing in energy savings and investing in individual heating technologies with high investment and low variable costs in single family houses is modelled for a number of building and consumer categories in Denmark. For each group the private economic cost of providing hea...... for private consumers decrease by 66% when all have the option to shift to the technology with lowest variable costs. © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All Rights reserved......The trade-off between investing in energy savings and investing in individual heating technologies with high investment and low variable costs in single family houses is modelled for a number of building and consumer categories in Denmark. For each group the private economic cost of providing...

Optimal value of a firm investing in exogeneous technology

OpenAIRE

Pólvora, Pedro Ribeiro Coelho Fouto

2012-01-01

Mestrado em Matemática Financeira Neste trabalho estudamos o valor ótimo para uma Firma cujo valor função depende de um nível de tecnologia exógeno. Em qualquer ponto no tempo a Firma pode investir numa nova tecnologia incorrendo num custo imediato e em retorno passará a utilizar essa nova tecnologia gerando lucros a partir de uma dada função. Estudamos o tempo de paragem ótimo que corresponde ao ponto no tempo em que a empresa investe para obter a valorização ótima. Usamos uma abordagem d...

Optimal capital accumulation and the allocation of investment between traded and nontraded sectors in oil-producing countries.

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van Wijnbergen, S.J.G.

1985-01-01

A paper on the optimal capital accumulation and allocation of investment in oil exporting countries. Investigates the basis of consumption and investment levels on optimizing forward-looking behavior, the role of physical capital in the production, the impact of the decline in oil revenues on the

Recent Investments by NASA's National Force Measurement Technology Capability

Science.gov (United States)

Commo, Sean A.; Ponder, Jonathan D.

2016-01-01

The National Force Measurement Technology Capability (NFMTC) is a nationwide partnership established in 2008 and sponsored by NASA's Aeronautics Evaluation and Test Capabilities (AETC) project to maintain and further develop force measurement capabilities. The NFMTC focuses on force measurement in wind tunnels and provides operational support in addition to conducting balance research. Based on force measurement capability challenges, strategic investments into research tasks are designed to meet the experimental requirements of current and future aerospace research programs and projects. This paper highlights recent and force measurement investments into several areas including recapitalizing the strain-gage balance inventory, developing balance best practices, improving calibration and facility capabilities, and researching potential technologies to advance balance capabilities.

Sustainable Investment in a Supply Chain in the Big Data Era: An Information Updating Approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yanping Cheng

2018-02-01

Full Text Available We are now living in the big data era, where firms can improve their decision makings by adopting big data technology to utilize mass information. To explore the effects of the big data technology, we build an analytical model to study the sustainable investment in a supply chain, consisting of one manufacturer and one retailer, by using Bayesian information updating approach. We derive the optimal sustainable investment level for the manufacturer and the optimal order quantity for the retailer. Comparing the results with and without the big data technology, we find that whether the manufacturer should make more sustainable investment when the retailer adopts the big data technology depends on the service level at the retailer side. Interestingly, it is not always optimal for the retailer to adopt the big data technology. We identify the conditions under which the manufacturer and retailer are better off with the big data technology. In addition, we investigate the impact of the number of observations regarding the market information and find that the optimal decisions and profits increase in the number of the observations, if and only if the service level is low.

A stochastic dynamic model for optimal timing of investments in new generation capacity in restructured power systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Botterud, Audun; Korpaas, Magnus

2007-01-01

In this paper we formulate the power generation investment problem for a decentralised and profit-maximising investor operating in a restructured and competitive power system. In particular, we look at how uncertainty influences the optimal timing of investments in new power generation capacity. A real options approach is used to take long-term uncertainty in load growth, and its influence on future electricity prices, into account in the investment optimisation. In order to value the operational flexibility of a new power plant we use an electricity price model, where the spot price is a function of load level and installed generation capacity, in addition to short-term uncertainties and temporal fluctuations in the market. The investor's income from a capacity payment, which also can depend on the system's total capacity balance, can also be represented. Hence, with the optimisation model we can analyse power plant profitability and optimal timing of new investments under different market designs. In a case study from the Nordic electricity market we analyse the effect of uncertainty on optimal investment timing. We also examine how a fixed or variable capacity payment would influence the investment decision, and discuss the system consequences of the resulting investment strategies. (author)

Initial investment to 3D printing technologies in a construction company

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cernohorsky, Zdenek

2017-06-01

Full Text Available This article deals with an initial investment to 3D printing technologies in a construction company. The investment refers to the use of building information models and their integration with 3D printing technology within a construction company. In the first part, there will be discussed an introduction of 3D printing scheme in a construction company from a lifecycle perspective in general. As a part of this scheme, the ideal variant of an initial investment will be considered a.k.a a pilot project. In the second part, there will be a more detailed discussion of the pilot project, more about each activities which should be its parts and which should analyze cost categories. These categories will be about particular lifecycle stages of the pilot project. In the third part, a summary is done. This article could be a handout for a construction company in a term of an initial investment to 3D printing.

Optimal Technology Investment and Operation in Zero-Net-Energy Buildings with Demand Response

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stadler, Michael; Siddiqui, Afzal; Marnay, Chris; Hirohisa, Aki; Lai, Judy

2009-01-01

The US Department of Energy has launched the Zero-Net-Energy (ZNE) Commercial Building Initiative (CBI) in order to develop commercial buildings that produce as much energy as they use. Its objective is to make these buildings marketable by 2025 such that they minimize their energy use through cutting-edge energy-efficient technologies and meet their remaining energy needs through on-site renewable energy generation. We examine how such buildings may be implemented within the context of a cost- or carbon-minimizing microgrid that is able to adopt and operate various technologies, such as photovoltaic (PV) on-site generation, heat exchangers, solar thermal collectors, absorption chillers, and passive/demand-response technologies. We use a mixed-integer linear program (MILP) that has a multi-criteria objective function: the minimization of a weighted average of the building's annual energy costs and carbon/CO2 emissions. The MILP's constraints ensure energy balance and capacity limits. In addition, constraining the building's energy consumed to equal its energy exports enables us to explore how energy sales and demand-response measures may enable compliance with the CBI. Using a nursing home in northern California and New York with existing tariff rates and technology data, we find that a ZNE building requires ample PV capacity installed to ensure electricity sales during the day. This is complemented by investment in energy-efficient combined heat and power equipment, while occasional demand response shaves energy consumption. A large amount of storage is also adopted, which may be impractical. Nevertheless, it shows the nature of the solutions and costs necessary to achieve ZNE. For comparison, we analyze a nursing home facility in New York to examine the effects of a flatter tariff structure and different load profiles. It has trouble reaching ZNE status and its load reductions as well as efficiency measures need to be more effective than those in the CA case

Optimal investment for enhancing social concern about biodiversity conservation: a dynamic approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Joung Hun; Iwasa, Yoh

2012-11-01

To maintain biodiversity conservation areas, we need to invest in activities, such as monitoring the condition of the ecosystem, preventing illegal exploitation, and removing harmful alien species. These require a constant supply of resources, the level of which is determined by the concern of the society about biodiversity conservation. In this paper, we study the optimal fraction of the resources to invest in activities for enhancing the social concern y(t) by environmental education, museum displays, publications, and media exposure. We search for the strategy that maximizes the time-integral of the quality of the conservation area x(t) with temporal discounting. Analyses based on dynamic programming and Pontryagin's maximum principle show that the optimal control consists of two phases: (1) in the first phase, the social concern level approaches to the final optimal value y(∗), (2) in the second phase, resources are allocated to both activities, and the social concern level is kept constant y(t) = y(∗). If the social concern starts from a low initial level, the optimal path includes a period in which the quality of the conservation area declines temporarily, because all the resources are invested to enhance the social concern. When the support rate increases with the quality of the conservation area itself x(t) as well as with the level of social concern y(t), both variables may increase simultaneously in the second phase. We discuss the implication of the results to good management of biodiversity conservation areas. 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved

Investment cash flow sensitivity under managerial optimism: new evidence from NYSE panel data firms

OpenAIRE

Mohamed, Ezzeddine Ben; Fairchild, Richard; Bouri, Abdelfettah

2014-01-01

Investment cash flow sensitivity constitutes one important block of the corporate financial literature. While it is well documented in standard corporate finance, it is still young under behavioral corporate finance. In this paper, we test the investment cash flow sensitivity among panel data of American industrial firms during 1999-2010. Using Q-model of investment (Tobin, 1969), we construct and introduce a proxy of managerial optimism following Malmendier and Tate (2005a) to show the impac...

The Baetylus Theorem-the central disconnect driving consumer behavior and investment returns in Wearable Technologies.

Science.gov (United States)

Levine, James A

2016-08-01

The Wearable Technology market may increase fivefold by the end of the decade. There is almost no academic investigation as to what drives the investment hypothesis in wearable technologies. This paper seeks to examine this issue from an evidence-based perspective. There is a fundamental disconnect in how consumers view wearable sensors and how companies market them; this is called The Baetylus Theorem where people believe (falsely) that by buying a wearable sensor they will receive health benefit; data suggest that this is not the case. This idea is grounded social constructs, psychological theories and marketing approaches. A marketing proposal that fails to recognize The Baetylus Theorem and how it can be integrated into a business offering has not optimized its competitive advantage. More importantly, consumers should not falsely believe that purchasing a wearable technology, improves health.

The Baetylus Theorem—the central disconnect driving consumer behavior and investment returns in Wearable Technologies

Science.gov (United States)

Levine, James A.

2016-01-01

The Wearable Technology market may increase fivefold by the end of the decade. There is almost no academic investigation as to what drives the investment hypothesis in wearable technologies. This paper seeks to examine this issue from an evidence-based perspective. There is a fundamental disconnect in how consumers view wearable sensors and how companies market them; this is called The Baetylus Theorem where people believe (falsely) that by buying a wearable sensor they will receive health benefit; data suggest that this is not the case. This idea is grounded social constructs, psychological theories and marketing approaches. A marketing proposal that fails to recognize The Baetylus Theorem and how it can be integrated into a business offering has not optimized its competitive advantage. More importantly, consumers should not falsely believe that purchasing a wearable technology, improves health. PMID:27617162

Notification: EPA Investments in Information Technology Products and Services

Science.gov (United States)

Project #OA-FY14-0307, June 10, 2014. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Office oflnspector General (OIG) plans to begin preliminary research on the EPA's management of information technology (IT) investments.

Aircraft technology portfolio optimization using ant colony optimization

Science.gov (United States)

Villeneuve, Frederic J.; Mavris, Dimitri N.

2012-11-01

Technology portfolio selection is a combinatorial optimization problem often faced with a large number of combinations and technology incompatibilities. The main research question addressed in this article is to determine if Ant Colony Optimization (ACO) is better suited than Genetic Algorithms (GAs) and Simulated Annealing (SA) for technology portfolio optimization when incompatibility constraints between technologies are present. Convergence rate, capability to find optima, and efficiency in handling of incompatibilities are the three criteria of comparison. The application problem consists of finding the best technology portfolio from 29 aircraft technologies. The results show that ACO and GAs converge faster and find optima more easily than SA, and that ACO can optimize portfolios with technology incompatibilities without using penalty functions. This latter finding paves the way for more use of ACO when the number of constraints increases, such as in the technology and concept selection for complex engineering systems.

Capital optimization: linking investment with strategic intent.

Science.gov (United States)

Fine, Allan; Bacchetti, J Alex

2004-01-01

With operating margins showing some improvement in 2003, Y2K being a distant memory, and many critical capital investment decisions delayed as long as possible, hospitals have been on a relative spending spree, building new facilities, renovating operating rooms and inpatient units, and investing in new medical and information technologies. However, with pressure on both cost and revenue expected to continue, if not increase, this spending spree may be short-lived, and hospitals must improve their capital planning efforts; align them with their mission, vision, and strategies; and ensure that capital is available when unplanned or even expected needs arise. This article explores some of the challenges that hospitals face in their capital planning efforts and, more importantly, suggests the necessity for hospitals to integrate capital and strategic planning. Capital planning must be driven by an organization's strategies; however, we also argue that an organization's ability to execute its strategies is highly dependent on the existence of a cohesive capital prioritization and planning process. In this article, we explore a number of issues critical to developing a comprehensive capital plan, including estimating capital costs, evaluating and designing strategies to contend with risk, saving for the proverbial "rainy day," and recognizing the role and value of philanthropy, while challenging some conventional thinking of hospital executives with respect to investment, growth, and planning.

2016 Decadal Update of the NASA ESTO Lidar Technologies Investment Strategy

Science.gov (United States)

Valinia, Azita; Tratt, David M.; Lotshaw, William T.; Gaab, Kevin M.; Komar, George J.; Rioux, Norman M.; Perez, Mario R.; Smith, Erin C.

2016-01-01

We describe the 2016 update of the NASA Earth Science Technology Office (ESTO) investment strategy in the area of lidar technologies as pertaining to NASAs Earth Science measurement goals in the next decade.

Integrating energy and environmental goals. Investment needs and technology options

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2004-04-01

Economic and population growth will continue to drive an expansion of the global energy market. The Earth's energy resources are undoubtedly adequate to meet rising demand for at least the next three decades. But the projected increases in energy consumption and market developments raise serious concerns about the security of energy supplies, investment in energy infrastructure, the threat of environmental damage caused by energy use and the uneven access of the world's population to modern energy. The first two sections of this background paper provide an outlook for energy demand and emissions over the next thirty years, based on findings in the IEA's World Energy Outlook 2002. Section four presents projections for global investment needs from the latest WEO publication, the World Energy Investment Outlook 2003. For both the energy and investment outlooks, an alternative scenario for OECD countries is examined. The scenarios describe a world in which environmental and energy supply security concerns will continue to plague policy makers. Clearly, changes in power generation, automotive engines and fuel technologies will be required to change trends in energy demand and emissions over the next thirty years and beyond. Improvements in energy efficiency will also play a fundamental role. A number of technologies offer the long term potential to diversify the energy sector away from its present heavy reliance on fossil fuels. Based on various IEA studies, section five evaluates those technologies that offer the potential to reduce emissions, including renewable energy, fossil-fuel use with CO2 capture and storage, nuclear, hydrogen, biofuels and efficient energy end use. No single technology can meet the challenge by itself. Different regions and countries will require different combinations of technologies to best serve their needs and best exploit their indigenous resources. Developing countries, in particular, will face far greater challenges in the years ahead

Technology Investment Agendas to Expand Human Space Futures

Science.gov (United States)

Sherwood, Brent

2012-01-01

The paper develops four alternative core-technology advancement specifications, one for each of the four strategic goal options for government investment in human space flight. Already discussed in the literature, these are: Explore Mars; Settle the Moon; accelerate commercial development of Space Passenger Travel; and enable industrial scale-up of Space Solar Power for Earth. In the case of the Explore Mars goal, the paper starts with the contemporary NASA accounting of ?55 Mars-enabling technologies. The analysis decomposes that technology agenda into technologies applicable only to the Explore Mars goal, versus those applicable more broadly to the other three options. Salient technology needs of all four options are then elaborated to a comparable level of detail. The comparison differentiates how technologies or major developments that may seem the same at the level of budget lines or headlines (e.g., heavy-lift Earth launch) would in fact diverge widely if developed in the service of one or another of the HSF goals. The paper concludes that the explicit choice of human space flight goal matters greatly; an expensive portfolio of challenging technologies would not only enable a particular option, it would foreclose the others. Technologies essential to enable human exploration of Mars cannot prepare interchangeably for alternative futures; they would not allow us to choose later to Settle the Moon, unleash robust growth of Space Passenger Travel industries, or help the transition to a post-petroleum future with Space Solar Power for Earth. The paper concludes that a decades-long decision in the U.S.--whether made consciously or by default--to focus technology investment toward achieving human exploration of Mars someday would effectively preclude the alternative goals in our lifetime.

Applying Internet-based Technologies to Teaching Corporate Finance and Investments

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zhuoming “Joe” Peng, Ph.D.,

2006-07-01

Full Text Available Finance faculty are increasingly encouraged to use internet-based technologies in teaching. This paper examines students’ perceptions of finance faculty who use internet-based technologies and the impact on their learning experiences in undergraduate introductory corporate finance, investments, and MBA investments courses. The results suggest that offering all course materials online may enhance students’ learning experiences, however, the technologies may be best thought of as teaching tools. A better methodology for a finance course delivery may be that of in-classroom interactions between an instructor and the students while all the pertinent course materials are available online throughout the semester. There is a statistically significant difference between MBA (Master of Business Administration students and undergraduate business students in terms of their desire to use the internet for learning finance. Consistent with previous research, results indicate that it may not be common practice among faculty to use internet-based technologies, and that assistant professors tend to use technologies in teaching more often than their higher-ranked colleagues do.

HOSPITAL MANAGERS' NEED FOR INFORMATION ON HEALTH TECHNOLOGY INVESTMENTS

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ølholm, Anne Mette; Kidholm, Kristian; Birk-Olsen, Mette

2015-01-01

decision makers, is not well described. The objective was to review empirical studies analysing the information that hospital decision makers need when deciding about health technology (HT) investments. METHODS: A systematic review of empirical studies published in English or Danish from 2000 to 2012...... in the literature related to clinical, economic and political/strategic aspects. Legal, social, and ethical aspects were seldom considered most important. CONCLUSIONS: Hospital decision makers are able to describe their information needs when deciding on HT investments. The different types of information were...

Case study: technology initiative led to advanced lead optimization screening processes at Bristol-Myers Squibb, 2004-2009.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Litao; Cvijic, Mary Ellen; Lippy, Jonathan; Myslik, James; Brenner, Stephen L; Binnie, Alastair; Houston, John G

2012-07-01

In this paper, we review the key solutions that enabled evolution of the lead optimization screening support process at Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMS) between 2004 and 2009. During this time, technology infrastructure investment and scientific expertise integration laid the foundations to build and tailor lead optimization screening support models across all therapeutic groups at BMS. Together, harnessing advanced screening technology platforms and expanding panel screening strategy led to a paradigm shift at BMS in supporting lead optimization screening capability. Parallel SAR and structure liability relationship (SLR) screening approaches were first and broadly introduced to empower more-rapid and -informed decisions about chemical synthesis strategy and to broaden options for identifying high-quality drug candidates during lead optimization. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

NASA technology investments: building America's future

Science.gov (United States)

Peck, Mason

2013-03-01

Investments in technology and innovation enable new space missions, stimulate the economy, contribute to the nation's global competitiveness, and inspire America's next generation of scientists, engineers and astronauts. Chief Technologist Mason Peck will provide an overview of NASA's ambitious program of space exploration that builds on new technologies, as well as proven capabilities, as it expands humanity's reach into the solar system while providing broadly-applicable benefits here on Earth. Peck also will discuss efforts of the Office of the Chief Technologist to coordinate the agency's overall technology portfolio, identifying development needs, ensuring synergy and reducing duplication, while furthering the national initiatives as outlined by President Obama's Office of Science and Technology Policy. By coordinating technology programs within NASA, Peck's office facilitates integration of available and new technology into operational systems that support specific human-exploration missions, science missions, and aeronautics. The office also engages other government agencies and the larger aerospace community to develop partnerships in areas of mutual interest that could lead to new breakthrough capabilities. NASA technology transfer translates our air and space missions into societal benefits for people everywhere. Peck will highlight NASA's use of technology transfer and commercialization to help American entrepreneurs and innovators develop technological solutions that stimulate the growth of the innovation economy by creating new products and services, new business and industries and high quality, sustainable jobs.

Applying the Theory of the Firm to Examine a Technology Startup at the Investment Stage

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Michael Ayukawa

2012-05-01

Full Text Available The investment stage of a new technology firm is when resources, opportunities, investors, and early customers first converge. Currently, technology entrepreneurs make many expensive mistakes. They invest in assets and develop capabilities that prove to have limited value. They take too long to discover and validate the product-market fit for their firms during the investment stage and run out of time and money. Understanding how theory can help entrepreneurs make decisions during the investment stage is important to accelerate new-firm formation and growth as well as to reduce the uncertainty of founders and stakeholders of technology firms. This article introduces a model developed to examine deal making during the investment stage of a new technology firm. It is an extension of a model of lateral firm scope proposed by Oliver Hart and Bengt Holmstrom. The extensions come from considering a technology firm as being both a deal-making entity and a pool of resources during the investment stage. A deal is the result of a decision the entrepreneur and others make to coordinate (i.e., work together to achieve a common objective. Benefits from a deal include cash profits for the firm and private benefits for the entrepreneur. This extended model is then applied to examine the author’s firm which is still in the investment stage. Application of the extended model to a real-life situation generated two important insights: i when private benefits include learning from experimentation, the number of deals increases and ii at the start of the investment stage, private benefits drive deal-making, whereas at the end of the investment stage, cash profits derived from asset ownership drive deal-making.

Medical implants by using RP and investment casting technologies

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Milan Horacek

2011-02-01

Full Text Available The paper deals with the production technology of knee joint replacement by using rapid prototyping technology. The aim of the work is to outline the manufacturing technology intended for prototype production with the use of rapid prototyping and investment casting technology for use in orthopaedics and the surgery of knee joint replacement. The research results should make an effective contribution in the attempts to minimize the invasive surgical procedure, shorten the production of knee joint replacement as well as reduce the cost. At present, the research is focused on the preparation of STL data from CT (Computed Tomography and verification of the production technology of prototypes made using available RP technology and its evaluation.

Real Options Analysis of Electricity Investments

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Heggedal, Ane Marte

2012-07-01

This thesis utilizes real options analysis for evaluating investment opportunities in the electricity sector. It also formally tests how investors in hydropower plants have included uncertainty when considering their investment opportunities. The real options method applies financial options theory to quantify the value of management flexibility and is chosen due to three important characteristics of investments in the electricity sector. First; the investment is completely or partially irreversible, second; the investor can choose when to invest in the facility, and third; there is uncertainty in several factors affecting the cash flows of the investments. Factors of uncertainty include the development of electricity prices, policies, technological advances, and macroeconomics measures.Four papers are included in this thesis. Paper 1, Upgrading hydropower plants with storage: Timing and capacity choice, presents a valuation framework for deciding when to upgrade an existing hydropower plant and which capacity to choose. The second paper, Transmission capacity between Norway and Germany: A real options analysis, sheds light on when two electricity markets, in this case Norway and Germany, should be connected through a sub sea cable. The investor can choose when to invest and the capacity of the cable, and may also choose to invest sequentially. Paper 3, Optimal timing and capacity choice for pumped hydropower storage, investigates when investment in a pumped hydropower plant with storage should be undertaken and what the capacity of the facility should be. Whereas the three first papers investigate investment opportunities, Paper 4, Uncertain climate policy decisions and investment timing: Evidence from small hydropower plants, studies when investors in small hydropower plants chose to invest. The analyses disclose whether the net present value approach or the real options method best describe the investment decisions made by the investors. Viewing investment

Optimum investment strategy in the power industry mathematical models

CERN Document Server

Bartnik, Ryszard; Hnydiuk-Stefan, Anna

2016-01-01

This book presents an innovative methodology for identifying optimum investment strategies in the power industry. To do so, it examines results including, among others, the impact of oxy-fuel technology on CO2 emissions prices, and the specific cost of electricity production. The technical and economic analysis presented here extend the available knowledge in the field of investment optimization in energy engineering, while also enabling investors to make decisions involving its application. Individual chapters explore the potential impacts of different factors like environmental charges on costs connected with investments in the power sector, as well as discussing the available technologies for heat and power generation. The book offers a valuable resource for researchers, market analysts, decision makers, power engineers and students alike.

Timing of Investment and Dynamic Pricing in Privatized Sectors

OpenAIRE

Tarola, Ornella; Trento, Sandro

2010-01-01

Firms in equipment-intensive sectors, where investment in production is performed at diminishing marginal cost, spend billions of dollars in equipment and production capacity. Typically, this expenditure is induced by either the replacement of existing equipment, which deteriorates with age and can result in higher operating costs and lower production capacity, or further investment, to benefit from any technological improvement embedded in new equipment. We identify the optimal price policy,...

Unintended possible consequences of fuel input taxes for individual investments in greenhouse gas mitigation technologies and the resulting emissions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Heinz E. Klingelhöfer

2017-03-01

Full Text Available Background: South Africa is planning to introduce a carbon tax as a Pigouvian measure for the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, one of the tax bases designed as a fuel input tax. In this form, it is supposed to incentivise users to reduce and/or substitute fossil fuels, leading to a reduction of CO2 emissions. Aim: This article examines how such a carbon tax regime may affect the individual willingness to invest in greenhouse gas mitigation technologies. Setting: Mathematical derivation, using methods of linear programming, duality theory and sensitivity analysis. Methods: By employing a two-step evaluation approach, it allows to identify the factors determining the maximum price an individual investor would pay for such an investment, given the conditions of imperfect markets. Results: This price ceiling depends on the (corrected net present values of the payments and on the interdependencies arising from changes in the optimal investment and production programmes. Although the well-established results of environmental economics usually can be confirmed for a single investment, increasing carbon taxes may entail sometimes contradictory and unexpected consequences for individual investments in greenhouse gas mitigation technologies and the resulting emissions. Under certain circumstances, they may discourage such investments and, when still undertaken, even lead to higher emissions. However, these results can be interpreted in an economically comprehensible manner. Conclusion: Under the usually given conditions of imperfect markets, the impact of a carbon tax regime on individual investment decisions to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions is not as straight forward as under the usually assumed, but unrealistically simplifying perfect market conditions. To avoid undesired and discouraging effects, policy makers cannot make solitary decisions, but have to take interdependencies on the addressee´s side into account. The individual investor

Promoting Sustainability through Investment in Building Information Modeling (BIM Technologies: A Design Company Perspective

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marius Reizgevičius

2018-02-01

Full Text Available The aim of this article is to enhance the understanding of how design companies perceive the benefits of Building Information Modeling (BIM technologies application. BIM is recognized in the literature as a (potentially powerful driver leading the construction sector towards sustainability. However, for design companies, the choice to invest in BIM technologies is basically an economic one. Specifically, a design company assesses economic benefits and efficiency improvements thanks to the application of BIM technologies. The article discusses the return on investments (ROI in BIM technologies and reviews ROI calculation methodologies proposed by other authors. In order to evaluate BIM return on investment correctly practical ROI calculations are carried out. Appropriate methods, together with the relevant variables for ROI calculation, are developed. The study allows for adjusting the calculation method making it more accurate and understandable using the Autodesk Revit based ROI calculation of the first year.

Barriers to investments in energy saving technologies. Case study for the industry

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Masselink, Dirk Jan

2007-01-01

To realise future energy saving targets, the government needs to increase energy reduction rates. One option to increase energy savings is found in removing barriers to investments in cost-effective energy saving technologies. Many technologies save energ

Optimizing investments in coupled offshore wind -electrolytic hydrogen storage systems in Denmark

Science.gov (United States)

Hou, Peng; Enevoldsen, Peter; Eichman, Joshua; Hu, Weihao; Jacobson, Mark Z.; Chen, Zhe

2017-08-01

In response to electricity markets with growing levels of wind energy production and varying electricity prices, this research examines incentives for investments in integrated renewable energy power systems. A strategy for using optimization methods for a power system consisting of wind turbines, electrolyzers, and hydrogen fuel cells is explored. This research reveals the investment potential of coupling offshore wind farms with different hydrogen systems. The benefits in terms of a return on investment are demonstrated with data from the Danish electricity markets. This research also investigates the tradeoffs between selling the hydrogen directly to customers or using it as a storage medium to re-generate electricity at a time when it is more valuable. This research finds that the most beneficial configuration is to produce hydrogen at a time that complements the wind farm and sell the hydrogen directly to end users.

Investment casting or powder metallurgy – the ecological aspect

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. Tomasik

2009-04-01

Full Text Available The paper presents an analysis of manufacturing methods of material-saving products in relation to investment castings and sinteredpowder technology. Surface microgeometry, shape accuracy, performance parameters, manufacturing costs and energy consumption weretaken into account to make the optimal choice. The analysis was conducted by comparing test results for sintered powder products basedon Distaloy AB alloy that consists of 0.55% C, 1.5% Cu, 1.75% Ni and 0.5% Mo and investment castings made of high alloy cast steel andnodular cast iron. The analysis made it possible to choose the best technology, considering also the ecological aspect.

Evaluation of Representative Smart Grid Investment Project Technologies: Demand Response

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Fuller, Jason C.; Prakash Kumar, Nirupama; Bonebrake, Christopher A.

2012-02-14

This document is one of a series of reports estimating the benefits of deploying technologies similar to those implemented on the Smart Grid Investment Grant (SGIG) projects. Four technical reports cover the various types of technologies deployed in the SGIG projects, distribution automation, demand response, energy storage, and renewables integration. A fifth report in the series examines the benefits of deploying these technologies on a national level. This technical report examines the impacts of a limited number of demand response technologies and implementations deployed in the SGIG projects.

Valuing the attributes of renewable energy investments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bergmann, Ariel; Hanley, Nick; Wright, Robert

2006-01-01

Increasing the proportion of power derived from renewable energy sources is becoming an increasingly important part of many countries' strategies to achieve reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. However, renewable energy investments can often have external costs and benefits, which need to be taken into account if socially optimal investments are to be made. This paper attempts to estimate the magnitude of these external costs and benefits for the case of renewable technologies in Scotland, a country which has set particularly ambitious targets for expanding renewable energy. The external effects we consider are those on landscape quality, wildlife and air quality. We also consider the welfare implications of different investment strategies for employment and electricity prices. The methodology used to do this is the choice experiment technique. Renewable technologies considered include hydro, on-shore and off-shore wind power and biomass. Welfare changes for different combinations of impacts associated with different investment strategies are estimated. We also test for differences in preferences towards these impacts between urban and rural communities, and between high- and low-income households. (author)

Valuing the attributes of renewable energy investments

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bergmann, Ariel [Economics Department, University of Glasgow, Adam Smith Building, Glasgow G12 8RT (United Kingdom); Hanley, Nick; Wright, Robert [Economics Department, University of Stirling, Stirling FK9 4LA, Scotland (United Kingdom)

2006-06-15

Increasing the proportion of power derived from renewable energy sources is becoming an increasingly important part of many countries' strategies to achieve reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. However, renewable energy investments can often have external costs and benefits, which need to be taken into account if socially optimal investments are to be made. This paper attempts to estimate the magnitude of these external costs and benefits for the case of renewable technologies in Scotland, a country which has set particularly ambitious targets for expanding renewable energy. The external effects we consider are those on landscape quality, wildlife and air quality. We also consider the welfare implications of different investment strategies for employment and electricity prices. The methodology used to do this is the choice experiment technique. Renewable technologies considered include hydro, on-shore and off-shore wind power and biomass. Welfare changes for different combinations of impacts associated with different investment strategies are estimated. We also test for differences in preferences towards these impacts between urban and rural communities, and between high- and low-income households. (author)

Optimal Investment Under Transaction Costs: A Threshold Rebalanced Portfolio Approach

Science.gov (United States)

Tunc, Sait; Donmez, Mehmet Ali; Kozat, Suleyman Serdar

2013-06-01

We study optimal investment in a financial market having a finite number of assets from a signal processing perspective. We investigate how an investor should distribute capital over these assets and when he should reallocate the distribution of the funds over these assets to maximize the cumulative wealth over any investment period. In particular, we introduce a portfolio selection algorithm that maximizes the expected cumulative wealth in i.i.d. two-asset discrete-time markets where the market levies proportional transaction costs in buying and selling stocks. We achieve this using "threshold rebalanced portfolios", where trading occurs only if the portfolio breaches certain thresholds. Under the assumption that the relative price sequences have log-normal distribution from the Black-Scholes model, we evaluate the expected wealth under proportional transaction costs and find the threshold rebalanced portfolio that achieves the maximal expected cumulative wealth over any investment period. Our derivations can be readily extended to markets having more than two stocks, where these extensions are pointed out in the paper. As predicted from our derivations, we significantly improve the achieved wealth over portfolio selection algorithms from the literature on historical data sets.

Research on optimal investment path of transmission corridor under the global energy Internet

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, Yuehui; Li, Pai; Wang, Qi; Liu, Jichun; Gao, Han

2018-02-01

Under the background of the global energy Internet, the investment planning of transmission corridor from XinJiang to Germany is studied in this article, which passes through four countries: Kazakhstan, Russia, Belarus and Poland. Taking the specific situation of different countries into account, including the length of transmission line, unit construction cost, completion time, transmission price, state tariff, inflation rate and so on, this paper constructed a power transmission investment model. Finally, the dynamic programming method is used to simulate the example, and the optimal strategies under different objective functions are obtained.

32 CFR 37.110 - What type of instruments are technology investment agreements (TIAs)?

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... investment agreements (TIAs)? 37.110 Section 37.110 National Defense Department of Defense OFFICE OF THE... What type of instruments are technology investment agreements (TIAs)? TIAs are assistance instruments used to stimulate or support research. As discussed in appendix B to this part, a TIA may be either a...

Including investment risk in large-scale power market models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lemming, Jørgen Kjærgaard; Meibom, P.

2003-01-01

Long-term energy market models can be used to examine investments in production technologies, however, with market liberalisation it is crucial that such models include investment risks and investor behaviour. This paper analyses how the effect of investment risk on production technology selection...... can be included in large-scale partial equilibrium models of the power market. The analyses are divided into a part about risk measures appropriate for power market investors and a more technical part about the combination of a risk-adjustment model and a partial-equilibrium model. To illustrate...... the analyses quantitatively, a framework based on an iterative interaction between the equilibrium model and a separate risk-adjustment module was constructed. To illustrate the features of the proposed modelling approach we examined how uncertainty in demand and variable costs affects the optimal choice...

Investment in flood protection measures under climate change uncertainty. An investment decision

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bruin, Karianne de

2012-11-01

Recent river flooding in Europe has triggered debates among scientists and policymakers on future projections of flood frequency and the need for adaptive investments, such as flood protection measures. Because there exists uncertainty about the impact of climate change of flood risk, such investments require a careful analysis of expected benefits and costs. The objective of this paper is to show how climate change uncertainty affects the decision to invest in flood protection measures. We develop a model that simulates optimal decision making in flood protection, it incorporates flexible timing of investment decisions and scientific uncertainty on the extent of climate change impacts. This model allows decision-makers to cope with the uncertain impacts of climate change on the frequency and damage of river flood events and minimises the risk of under- or over-investment. One of the innovative elements is that we explicitly distinguish between structural and non-structural flood protection measures. Our results show that the optimal investment decision today depends strongly on the cost structure of the adaptation measures and the discount rate, especially the ratio of fixed and weighted annual costs of the measures. A higher level of annual flood damage and later resolution of uncertainty in time increases the optimal investment. Furthermore, the optimal investment decision today is influenced by the possibility of the decision-maker to adjust his decision at a future moment in time.(auth)

Risk based economic optimization of investment decisions of regulated power distribution system operators; Risikobasierte wirtschaftliche Optimierung von Investitionsentscheidungen regulierter Stromnetzbetreiber

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

John, Oliver

2012-07-01

The author of the contribution under consideration reports on risk-based economic optimization of investment decisions of regulated power distribution system operators. The focus is the economically rational decision behavior of operators under certain regulatory requirements. Investments in power distribution systems form the items subject to decisions. Starting from a description of theoretical and practical regulatory approaches, their financial implications are quantified at first. On this basis, optimization strategies are derived with respect to the investment behavior. For this purpose, an optimization algorithm is developed and applied to exemplary companies. Finally, effects of uncertainties in regulatory systems are investigated. In this context, Monte Carlo simulations are used in conjunction with real options analysis.

Assessing the capital efficiency of healthcare information technologies investments: an econometric perspective.

Science.gov (United States)

Meyer, Rodolphe; Degoulet, Patrice

2008-01-01

To examine the different methods that can be used in the quantification of the added value of information technologies (IT) in the health care sector. This quantification represents a major issue for decision-makers and health care professionals when they have to plan an IT investment. Articles were chosen via Medline, internet and the University of Geneva bibliographic portal. Some of the papers were obtained directly from their authors. We examine the most current methods used to evaluate IT return on investment (ROI) in the general business and in the health care sector, drawing attention on methods traditionally used in macroeconomic studies that could reveal themselves disruptive for IT ROI impact evaluation in hospitals. Financial and accounting methods can provide interesting data on a specific IT project but are usually incomplete for revealing the global IT investment influence. Econometric methods tend to demonstrate the positive impact of health care IT (HIT) on hospital production and productivity. Hospitals having higher levels of IT investment tend to deliver a higher level of clinical quality and show improved hospital cost performances. Information technologies are so intermingled with people and processes that the identification of specific IT benefit remains questionable. Using macroeconomic tools could be the best way to analyze and compute IT ROI in health care. Econometric tools take into account all types investments (inputs) and all the returns (outputs) enabling the precise measurement of IT investments impact, breakeven points, and possible threshold levels, thus providing helpful intelligence to reach the higher levels of IT governance in hospitals.

Incentives of carbon dioxide regulation for investment in low-carbon electricity technologies in Texas

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Castillo, Anya; Linn, Joshua

2011-01-01

This paper compares the incentives a carbon dioxide emissions price creates for investment in low carbon dioxide-emitting technologies in the electricity sector. We consider the extent to which operational differences across generation technologies - particularly, nuclear, wind and solar photovoltaic - create differences in the incentives for new investment, which is measured by the operating profits of a potential entrant. First, astylized model of an electricity system demonstrates that the composition of the existing generation system may cause electricity prices to increase by different amounts over time when a carbon dioxide price is imposed. Differences in operation across technologies therefore translate to differences in the operating profits of a potential entrant. Then, a detailed simulation model is used to consider a hypothetical carbon dioxide price of $10-$50 per metric ton for the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) market. The simulations show that, for the range of prices considered, the increase in electricity prices is positively correlated with output from a typical wind unit, but the correlation is much weaker for nuclear and photovoltaic. Consequently, a carbon dioxide price creates much stronger investment incentives for wind than for nuclear or photovoltaic technologies in the Texas market. - Highlights: → Compare incentives for new investment in low-emission electricity technologies created by carbon dioxide price. → Focus on ERCOT power system using stochastic unit commitment model. →Find a greater incentive for wind than solar or nuclear because of correlation between wind generation and increase in electricity prices.

Advocating investments in information technology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nirenberg, L.M.

1992-01-01

Information and communication systems can improve the timeliness and quality of decisions. These benefits are strategically important to the utility industry in an era of increasing competition. Because these systems often do not reduce labor cost, however, they can be difficult to evaluate. This report presents a new process for reaching consensus of the value of capital investment in information and communication systems. The results of this project is A Strategic Advocacy Process (ASAP), a methodology that can be used to evaluate investments in information technology. ASAP uses belief graphs to produce a living business case showing facts, assumptions, goals, and metrics for measuring progress toward those goals; shows how to use option pricing theory to quantify the value of managerial flexibility; ASAP uses an organizational impact assessment tool to identify the potential impact of new information systems and how to realize the benefits of managerial flexibility. The ASAP methodology addresses the critical problem of correctly valuing information and communication systems. The methodology offers a way to account for the ''intangible'' value of these systems by recognizing the managerial flexibility these systems can provide in addressing risks and uncovering new business opportunities. Metrics for measuring progress toward new goals can be defined, and plans for achieving the goals can be made. As a result, agreement can be reached on the uses, value, and priority of projects based on a metric other than on labor replacement savings

Optimal Cycle Time and Preservation Technology Investment for Deteriorating Items with Price-sensitive Stock-dependent Demand Under Inflation

Science.gov (United States)

Shah, Nita H.; Shah, Arpan D.

2014-04-01

The article analyzes economic order quantity for the retailer who has to handle imperfect quality of the product and the units are subject to deteriorate at a constant rate. To control deterioration of the units in inventory, the retailer has to deploy advanced preservation technology. Another challenge for the retailer is to have perfect quality product. This requires mandatory inspection during the production process. This model is developed with the condition of random fraction of defective items. It is assumed that after inspection, the screened defective items are sold at a discounted rate instantly. Demand is considered to be price-sensitive stock-dependent. The model is incorporating effect of inflation which is critical factor globally. The objective is to maximize profit of the retailer with respect to preservation technology investment, order quantity and cycle time. The numerical example is given to validate the proposed model. Sensitivity analysis is carried out to work out managerial issues.

Technology Investments in the NASA Entry Systems Modeling Project

Science.gov (United States)

Barnhardt, Michael; Wright, Michael; Hughes, Monica

2017-01-01

The Entry Systems Modeling (ESM) technology development project, initiated in 2012 under NASAs Game Changing Development (GCD) Program, is engaged in maturation of fundamental research developing aerosciences, materials, and integrated systems products for entry, descent, and landing(EDL)technologies [1]. To date, the ESM project has published over 200 papers in these areas, comprising the bulk of NASAs research program for EDL modeling. This presentation will provide an overview of the projects successes and challenges, and an assessment of future investments in EDL modeling and simulation relevant to NASAs mission

Analysis on Dynamic Decision-Making Model of the Enterprise Technological Innovation Investment under Uncertain Environment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yong Long

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Under the environment of fuzzy factors including the return of market, performance of product, and the demanding level of market, we use the method of dynamic programming and establish the model of investment decision, in technology innovation project of enterprise, based on the dynamic programming. Analysis of the influence caused by the changes of fuzzy uncertainty factors to technological innovation project investment of enterprise.

Formation of the Optimal Investment Portfolio as a Precondition for the Bank’s Financial Security

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anna Shapovalova

2015-01-01

Full Text Available This article analyses the definition of the bank’s financial security and investment activities. It describes a few types of models of bank’s risks management and the method CAPM, which is chosen for use. In support for the chosen CAPM method, we included the mathematical model that allows elaborating an optimal investment portfolio. The model stands at the basis of this method and a case study of one of Ukrainian banks.

Formation of the Optimal Investment Portfolio as a Precondition for the Bank’s Financial Security

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anna Shapovalova

2016-01-01

Full Text Available This article analyses the definition of the bank’s financial security and investment activities. It describes a few types of models of bank’s risks management and the method CAPM, which is chosen for use. In support for the chosen CAPM method, we included the mathematical model that allows elaborating an optimal investment portfolio. The model stands at the basis of this method and a case study of one of Ukrainian banks.

Inducing low-carbon investment in the electric power industry through a price floor for emissions trading

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brauneis, Alexander; Mestel, Roland; Palan, Stefan

2013-01-01

Uncertainty about long-term climate policy is a major driving force in the evolution of the carbon market price. Since this price enters the investment decision process of regulated firms, this uncertainty increases the cost of capital for investors and might deter investments into new technologies at the company level. We apply a real options-based approach to assess the impact of climate change policy in the form of a constant or growing price floor on investment decisions of a single firm in a competitive environment. This firm has the opportunity to switch from a high-carbon “dirty” technology to a low-carbon “clean” technology. Using Monte Carlo simulation and dynamic programming techniques for real data, we determine the optimal CO 2 price floor level and growth rate in order to induce investments into the low-carbon technology. We find that a carbon price floor can be used to induce earlier low-carbon technology investment and show this result to be robust to a large variety of input parameter settings. - Highlights: ► We model the investment decision of an electricity generating company. ► The company can invest in low and high carbon technologies. ► We investigate different carbon price floor designs. ► A carbon price floor leads to earlier investment into low-carbon technology.

Investment inefficiency and the adoption of eco-innovations: The case of household energy efficiency technologies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Diaz-Rainey, Ivan; Ashton, John K.

2015-01-01

This paper examines the factors determining household adoption of energy efficiency eco-innovations. We do so by testing hypotheses grounded in diffusion and finance theory and the literature on the barriers to energy efficiency. Using two large surveys of UK households, we explore the adoption of nine technologies. Our results indicate ‘investment inefficiency’ amongst household adopters occurs for two reasons. First, contrary to notions of rational choice, we find a negative relationship between the investment return of technologies and their level of diffusion. Second, we show adopters of these technologies display characteristics broadly consistent with diffusion theory, contradicting the prediction of finance theory that investment return, not individual characteristics, should drive adoption. We also find that policy has played a role in inducing the diffusion of these technologies and that tenure and spill-over effects are important in adoption. Finally, adoption is motivated more by a desire to save money than by environmental concern. We conclude by giving examples of how our research can lead to better policy timing and targeting. -- Highlights: •We explore the factors driving household adoption of energy efficiency technologies. •We employ two high quality nationally representative cross sectional surveys. •There is a negative relationship between investment return and level of diffusion. •Adopters display characteristics broadly consistent with diffusion theory. •Policy interventions, tenure effects and spill-over effects also influence adoption

THE PARAMETER OPTIMIZATION MODEL OF INVESTMENT AND CONSTRUCTION PROJECTS AND MANAGERIAL FEASIBILITY OF THEIR BEHAVIOR

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

P. Ye. Uvarov

2009-09-01

Full Text Available In the article the basic problem of substantiation of parameters of optimization model of organizationaltechnological solutions for investment-building projects in the system of project management is considered.

Irreversible investments revisited

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sandal, Leif K.; Steinshamn, Stein I.; Hoff, Ayoe

2007-01-01

A multi-dimensional, non-linear dynamic model in continuous time is presented for the purpose of finding the optimal combination of exploitation and capital investment in optimal renewable resource management. Non-malleability of capital is incorporated in the model through an asymmetric cost......-function of investment, and investments can be both positive and negative. Exploitation is controlled through the utilisation rate of available capital. A novel feature in this model is that there are costs associated with the available capital whether it is utilised or not. And, in contrast to most of the previous...

Optimal Reinsurance-Investment Problem for an Insurer and a Reinsurer with Jump-Diffusion Process

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hanlei Hu

2018-01-01

Full Text Available The optimal reinsurance-investment strategies considering the interests of both the insurer and reinsurer are investigated. The surplus process is assumed to follow a jump-diffusion process and the insurer is permitted to purchase proportional reinsurance from the reinsurer. Applying dynamic programming approach and dual theory, the corresponding Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equations are derived and the optimal strategies for exponential utility function are obtained. In addition, several sensitivity analyses and numerical illustrations in the case with exponential claiming distributions are presented to analyze the effects of parameters about the optimal strategies.

Investment appraisal of technology innovations on dairy farm electricity consumption

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Upton, J.; Murphy, M.; Boer, de I.J.M.; Groot Koerkamp, P.W.G.; Berentsen, P.B.M.; Shalloo, L.

2015-01-01

The aim of this study was to conduct an investment appraisal for milk-cooling, water-heating, and milk-harvesting technologies on a range of farm sizes in 2 different electricity-pricing environments. This was achieved by using a model for electricity consumption on dairy farms. The model simulated

Evaluation on Optimal Scale of Rural Fixed-asset Investment – Based on Microcosmic Perspective of Farmers’ Income Increase

OpenAIRE

DENG, Jinqian; SHAN, Kangkang; ZHANG, Yan

2014-01-01

The rural fundamental and productive fixed-asset investment not only makes active influence on the changes of farmers’ operational, wages and property income, but it also has an optimal scale range for farmers’ income increase. From the perspective of farmers’ income increase, this article evaluates the optimal scale of rural fixed-asset investment by setting up model with statistic data, and the results show that the optimal scale of per capita rural fixed-asset investment is 76.35% of...

H–J–B Equations of Optimal Consumption-Investment and Verification Theorems

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Nagai, Hideo, E-mail: nagaih@kansai-u.ac.jp [Kansai University, Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Engineering Science (Japan)

2015-04-15

We consider a consumption-investment problem on infinite time horizon maximizing discounted expected HARA utility for a general incomplete market model. Based on dynamic programming approach we derive the relevant H–J–B equation and study the existence and uniqueness of the solution to the nonlinear partial differential equation. By using the smooth solution we construct the optimal consumption rate and portfolio strategy and then prove the verification theorems under certain general settings.

H–J–B Equations of Optimal Consumption-Investment and Verification Theorems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nagai, Hideo

2015-01-01

We consider a consumption-investment problem on infinite time horizon maximizing discounted expected HARA utility for a general incomplete market model. Based on dynamic programming approach we derive the relevant H–J–B equation and study the existence and uniqueness of the solution to the nonlinear partial differential equation. By using the smooth solution we construct the optimal consumption rate and portfolio strategy and then prove the verification theorems under certain general settings

Future carbon regulations and current investments in alternative coal-fired power plant technologies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sekar, Ram C.; Parsons, John E.; Herzog, Howard J.; Jacoby, Henry D.

2007-01-01

We analyze how uncertain future US carbon regulations shape the current choice of the type of power plant to build. Our focus is on two coal-fired technologies, pulverized coal (PC) and integrated coal gasification combined cycle technology (IGCC). The PC technology is cheapest-assuming there is no need to control carbon emissions. The IGCC technology may be cheaper if carbon must be captured. Since power plants last many years and future regulations are uncertain, a US electric utility faces a standard decision under uncertainty. A company will confront the range of possible outcomes, assigning its best estimate of the probability of each scenario, averaging the results and determining the power plant technology with the lowest possible cost inclusive of expected future carbon related costs, whether those costs be in the form of emissions charges paid or capital expenditures for retrofitting to capture carbon. If the company assigns high probability to no regulation or to less stringent regulation of carbon, then it makes sense for it to build the PC plant. But if it assigns sufficient probability to scenarios with more stringent regulation, then the IGCC technology is warranted. We provide some useful benchmarks for possible future regulation and show how these relate back to the relative costs of the two technologies and the optimal technology choice. Few of the policy proposals widely referenced in the public discussion warrant the choice of the IGCC technology. Instead, the PC technology remains the least costly. However, recent carbon prices in the European Emissions Trading System are higher than these benchmarks. If it is any guide to possible future penalties for emissions in the US, then current investment in the IGCC technology is warranted. Of course, other factors need to be factored into the decision as well

Investment shocks and the relative price of investment

OpenAIRE

Justiniano, Alejandro; Primiceri, Giorgio E.; Tambalotti, Andrea

2009-01-01

We estimate a New-Neoclassical Synthesis model of the business cycle with two investment shocks. The first, an investment-specific technology shock, affects the transformation of consumption into investment goods and is identified with the relative price of investment. The second shock affects the production of installed capital from investment goods or, more broadly, the transformation of savings into future capital input. We find that this shock is the most important driver of U.S. business...

An options approach to investment in a hydrogen infrastructure

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Benthem, A.A. van; Kramer, G.J.; Ramer, R.

2006-01-01

This paper discusses the investments needed for the introduction of hydrogen as a transport fuel. Using option theory, we develop a model to calculate the value and optimal timing of a first commercial rollout of hydrogen vehicles in a larger area, taking Japan as a specific example. We find that the project is best viewed as an out-of-the-money call option with a small but positive option value. We estimate this value at approximately 1.5 billion euros, without tax advantages. An important finding is that the moment of investment is first and foremost determined by the maturing of the technology. By contrast, the investment timing is not as much affected by deployment strategy as is frequently thought: in particular, whether or not the hydrogen retail infrastructure is introduced smoothly does not sensitively influence the investment timing. Fairly independent of parameter assumptions, the project value at the moment of deployment is negative for the retailer and positive for the car manufacturer. This implies the need for a negotiated partnership. Finally, we assess various forms of government support, e.g. subsidies or tax cuts. Looking at the effectiveness of this support spending in relation to the advancement of hydrogen deployment, we find, again because investment timing is primarily determined by technology maturation, that tax incentives are relatively ineffective. We are lead to believe that government subsidy for technology development is a more effective means to achieve earlier investment, as faster production cost reductions for hydrogen and fuel cell vehicles lead to accelerated investment

Renewable energy investment: Policy and market impacts

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Reuter, Wolf Heinrich; Szolgayová, Jana; Fuss, Sabine; Obersteiner, Michael

2012-01-01

Highlights: ► Feedback of decisions to the market: large companies can have an impact on prices in the market. ► Multiple uncertainties: analysis of uncertainties emanating from both markets and environment. ► Policy analysis: impact of uncertainty about the durability of feed-in tariffs. -- Abstract: The liberalization of electricity markets in recent years has enhanced competition among power-generating firms facing uncertain decisions of competitors and thus uncertain prices. At the same time, promoting renewable energy has been a key ingredient in energy policy seeking to de-carbonize the energy mix. Public incentives for companies to invest in renewable technologies range from feed-in tariffs, to investment subsidies, tax credits, portfolio requirements and certificate systems. We use a real options model in discrete time with lumpy multiple investments to analyze the decisions of an electricity producer to invest into new power generating capacity, to select the type of technology and to optimize its operation under price uncertainty and with market effects. We account for both the specific characteristics of renewables and the market effects of investment decisions. The prices are determined endogenously by the supply of electricity in the market and by exogenous electricity price uncertainty. The framework is used to analyze energy policy, as well as the reaction of producers to uncertainty in the political and regulatory framework. In this way, we are able to compare different policies to foster investment into renewables and analyze their impacts on the market.

Decision Analysis Methods Used to Make Appropriate Investments in Human Exploration Capabilities and Technologies

Science.gov (United States)

Williams-Byrd, Julie; Arney, Dale C.; Hay, Jason; Reeves, John D.; Craig, Douglas

2016-01-01

NASA is transforming human spaceflight. The Agency is shifting from an exploration-based program with human activities in low Earth orbit (LEO) and targeted robotic missions in deep space to a more sustainable and integrated pioneering approach. Through pioneering, NASA seeks to address national goals to develop the capacity for people to work, learn, operate, live, and thrive safely beyond Earth for extended periods of time. However, pioneering space involves daunting technical challenges of transportation, maintaining health, and enabling crew productivity for long durations in remote, hostile, and alien environments. Prudent investments in capability and technology developments, based on mission need, are critical for enabling a campaign of human exploration missions. There are a wide variety of capabilities and technologies that could enable these missions, so it is a major challenge for NASA's Human Exploration and Operations Mission Directorate (HEOMD) to make knowledgeable portfolio decisions. It is critical for this pioneering initiative that these investment decisions are informed with a prioritization process that is robust and defensible. It is NASA's role to invest in targeted technologies and capabilities that would enable exploration missions even though specific requirements have not been identified. To inform these investments decisions, NASA's HEOMD has supported a variety of analysis activities that prioritize capabilities and technologies. These activities are often based on input from subject matter experts within the NASA community who understand the technical challenges of enabling human exploration missions. This paper will review a variety of processes and methods that NASA has used to prioritize and rank capabilities and technologies applicable to human space exploration. The paper will show the similarities in the various processes and showcase instances were customer specified priorities force modifications to the process. Specifically

Influence Diagram Use With Respect to Technology Planning and Investment

Science.gov (United States)

Levack, Daniel J. H.; DeHoff, Bryan; Rhodes, Russel E.

2009-01-01

Influence diagrams are relatively simple, but powerful, tools for assessing the impact of choices or resource allocations on goals or requirements. They are very general and can be used on a wide range of problems. They can be used for any problem that has defined goals, a set of factors that influence the goals or the other factors, and a set of inputs. Influence diagrams show the relationship among a set of results and the attributes that influence them and the inputs that influence the attributes. If the results are goals or requirements of a program, then the influence diagram can be used to examine how the requirements are affected by changes to technology investment. This paper uses an example to show how to construct and interpret influence diagrams, how to assign weights to the inputs and attributes, how to assign weights to the transfer functions (influences), and how to calculate the resulting influences of the inputs on the results. A study is also presented as an example of how using influence diagrams can help in technology planning and investment. The Space Propulsion Synergy Team (SPST) used this technique to examine the impact of R&D spending on the Life Cycle Cost (LCC) of a space transportation system. The question addressed was the effect on the recurring and the non-recurring portions of LCC of the proportion of R&D resources spent to impact technology objectives versus the proportion spent to impact operational dependability objectives. The goals, attributes, and the inputs were established. All of the linkages (influences) were determined. The weighting of each of the attributes and each of the linkages was determined. Finally the inputs were varied and the impacts on the LCC determined and are presented. The paper discusses how each of these was accomplished both for credibility and as an example for future studies using influence diagrams for technology planning and investment planning.

Portfolio optimization in the cryptocurrency market : an evaluation of the performance of momentum strategies in the cryptocurrency market and cryptocurrency’s place in an optimized investment portfolio

OpenAIRE

Bjordal, Andreas; Opdahl, Espen

2017-01-01

In this paper, we rigorously investigate the benefit of utilizing an active investment strategy based on momentum when investing in cryptocurrencies. We also examine how including cryptocurrencies in a more traditional asset allocation can optimize an investment portfolio. First, we create strategies with the use of exponential moving averages and simple average filters to generate a trading signal. Second, we provide evidence that the active strategies receive positive return,...

Evaluation of Representative Smart Grid Investment Grant Project Technologies: Thermal Energy Storage

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Tuffner, Francis K.; Bonebrake, Christopher A.

2012-02-14

This document is one of a series of reports estimating the benefits of deploying technologies similar to those implemented on the Smart Grid Investment Grant (SGIG) projects. Four technical reports cover the various types of technologies deployed in the SGIG projects, distribution automation, demand response, energy storage, and renewables integration. A fifth report in the series examines the benefits of deploying these technologies on a national level. This technical report examines the impacts of energy storage technologies deployed in the SGIG projects.

Offshore wind investments – Realism about cost developments is necessary

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schwanitz, Valeria Jana; Wierling, August

2016-01-01

Data available from the recent boom in European offshore wind investments contradict widely held expectations about a decline in costs per kW. Our review shows that scenario projections for investment costs are systematically flawed by over-optimistic assumptions. Contrasting offshore wind technology with onshore wind and nuclear power, we argue that offshore wind could be a candidate for negative learning since a trend towards more complex OWP (offshore wind parks) exists and uncertainty remains high. We estimate technical uncertainty and input cost uncertainty to calculate whether investments in offshore wind technology are profitable today. Applying a real option model to two reference plants using empirically derived parameter values, we allow for sunk cost and the possibility to abandon the investment. We find that for a large parameter range, investments are not profitable, even with substantial support such as feed-in tariffs under the German Energy Act. Therefore, policy incentives for building larger and more complex offshore wind parks bear a high risk to fail in their aim of bringing down investment costs. Policies that instead incentivize the optimization of offshore wind technology – in particular by increasing the load factor and material efficiency and bringing down decommissioning costs – are more sustainable. - Highlights: • We review offshore wind power investments. • Contrary to expectations costs increase. • It is unlikely to see a turn in the near future as complexity is growing. • We deploy an empirically based real option model. • Investments are not profitable across a large parameter range.

Investment in hydrogen tri-generation for wastewater treatment plants under uncertainties

Science.gov (United States)

Gharieh, Kaveh; Jafari, Mohsen A.; Guo, Qizhong

2015-11-01

In this article, we present a compound real option model for investment in hydrogen tri-generation and onsite hydrogen dispensing systems for a wastewater treatment plant under price and market uncertainties. The ultimate objective is to determine optimal timing and investment thresholds to exercise initial and subsequent options such that the total savings are maximized. Initial option includes investment in a 1.4 (MW) Molten Carbonate Fuel Cell (MCFC) fed by mixture of waste biogas from anaerobic digestion and natural gas, along with auxiliary equipment. Produced hydrogen in MCFC via internal reforming, is recovered from the exhaust gas stream using Pressure Swing Adsorption (PSA) purification technology. Therefore the expansion option includes investment in hydrogen compression, storage and dispensing (CSD) systems which creates additional revenue by selling hydrogen onsite in retail price. This work extends current state of investment modeling within the context of hydrogen tri-generation by considering: (i) Modular investment plan for hydrogen tri-generation and dispensing systems, (ii) Multiple sources of uncertainties along with more realistic probability distributions, (iii) Optimal operation of hydrogen tri-generation is considered, which results in realistic saving estimation.

Distributed electric power systems of the future: Institutional and technological drivers for near-optimal performance

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ilic, Marija; Prica, Marija; Black, Jason W.

2007-01-01

Viewing electric power distribution systems as complex engineering systems whose states and inputs are defined by both technical and non-technical components of the system could help us understand challenges and lead to possible innovative solutions. In this setup, regulatory incentives, pricing, demand, and technological innovation are all endogenous feed-forward and/or feedback signals to the existing physical network and shape its evolution in both the short and long terms. We suggest that it is, indeed, possible to design technical, economic, and regulatory feed-forward and feedback signals keeping in mind the desired performance of the system. A particularly unique challenge is to enhance and operate the existing systems by incorporating distributed technologies (distributed generation or DG, active demand response, controllable wires) whose added value comes from just-in-time and right-location adjustments to the changing conditions. One way of interpreting the value of technologies of this type is to understand that they provide flexible and efficient responses by the end-user (DG and demand), therefore reducing the need for capacity reserve at the system level. Technical implementations and regulatory rules are not in place today to support systematic penetration of these technologies into the existing distribution systems. In this paper we stress the critical role of future load serving entities (LSEs) as aggregators and catalysts of customer choice at the value as one possible way forward. The LSEs would, through systematic protocols between themselves and the wholesale markets, on one side, and the customers whom they serve, on the other side, effectively implement incentives to induce near-optimal distribution system performance over long time horizons by investing in near-optimal technologies. These incentives must capture and compare both cumulative effects of real time decisions and the effects of longer-term investment decisions on near-optimal

Influence of elements of “technological revolution” on efficiency of the investment and construction sphere

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Murashova Olga

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The article describes a new view on the investment and construction area taking into consideration the influence of information technologies and innovations. The author has pointed out the basic aspects, which could allow making a break-through in management effectiveness, if being implemented in companies’ business or in investment and construction projects. The article presents the definition of the investment and construction cycle as an integrator of innovation solutions. The paper contains the conclusion about the obvious sector development using active implementation of information modeling of the investment and construction project facilities.

Investing in efficient industrial boiler systems in China and Vietnam

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yang Ming; Dixon, Robert K.

2012-01-01

Energy efficiency in industrial boiler steam systems can be very low due to old technologies, improper design and non-optimal operation of the steam systems. Solutions include efficiency assessments and investments in steam system optimizations, education and training for operators of the systems. This paper presents case studies on assessing and investing in boiler steam systems in China and Vietnam. Methodologies and approaches for data collection and analyses were designed specifically for each of the two countries. This paper concludes: (1) investing in energy efficiency in industrial boiler steam system in China and Vietnam are cost effective; (2) government should not sent national energy efficiency standards lower than that of energy companies or energy equipment manufactures. - Highlights: ► GEF successfully catalyzed investment in industrial energy efficiency boilers in China in 1990s. ► With about $100 million of investment by the GEF/World Bank/Chinese government, the project will mitigate 40 million tons of CO 2 by 2019. ► This generated lowest unit cost of carbon reduction in the world: about $2.5 per ton of CO 2 mitigation. ► Investing in energy efficiency in industrial boiler steam system today in Vietnam will be the same cost effective as in China: $2.1 per ton of CO 2 mitigation.

Investments in information systems and technology in the healthcare: Project management mediation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jorge Gomes

2017-03-01

Full Text Available Healthcare organisations must improve their business practices and internal procedures in order to answer the increasing demand of health professionals and the general public for more and better information. Hospitals invest massively in information systems and technology (IS/IT in the hope that these investments will improve healthcare and meet patients’ demands. The main objective of our research is to study how organisational maturity, enhanced by investments in IS/IT, project management and best practices, leads to successful projects in public healthcare organisations. The rational of our model is that organisational maturity has a positive effect on IS/IT project success, and that this success is also positively enhanced by the use of project management practices. We emphasise that this combination of approaches can increase the effectiveness of projects. Furthermore, it can also improve the confidence that the results of investments will meet stakeholders’ expectations.

Evaluation of Representative Smart Grid Investment Grant Project Technologies: Distributed Generation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Singh, Ruchi; Vyakaranam, Bharat GNVSR

2012-02-14

This document is one of a series of reports estimating the benefits of deploying technologies similar to those implemented on the Smart Grid Investment Grant (SGIG) projects. Four technical reports cover the various types of technologies deployed in the SGIG projects, distribution automation, demand response, energy storage, and renewables integration. A fifth report in the series examines the benefits of deploying these technologies on a national level. This technical report examines the impacts of addition of renewable resources- solar and wind in the distribution system as deployed in the SGIG projects.

Study on optimized decision-making model of offshore wind power projects investment

Science.gov (United States)

Zhao, Tian; Yang, Shangdong; Gao, Guowei; Ma, Li

2018-02-01

China’s offshore wind energy is of great potential and plays an important role in promoting China’s energy structure adjustment. However, the current development of offshore wind power in China is inadequate, and is much less developed than that of onshore wind power. On the basis of considering all kinds of risks faced by offshore wind power development, an optimized model of offshore wind power investment decision is established in this paper by proposing the risk-benefit assessment method. To prove the practicability of this method in improving the selection of wind power projects, python programming is used to simulate the investment analysis of a large number of projects. Therefore, the paper is dedicated to provide decision-making support for the sound development of offshore wind power industry.

Effects of a Capital Investment and a Discount Rate on the Optimal Operational Duration of an HLW Repository

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Sung Ki; Lee, Min Soo; Choi, Heui Joo; Choi, Jong Won

2008-01-01

This study aims to estimate the effects of a capital investment and a discount rate on the optimal operational duration of an HLW repository. According to the previous researches of the KRS(Korea Reference System) for an HLW repository, the amounts of 7,068,200 C$K and 2,636.2 MEUR are necessary to construct and operate surface and underground facilities. Since these huge costs can be a burden to some national economies, a study for a cost optimization should be performed. So we aim to drive the dominant cost driver for an optimal operational duration. A longer operational duration may be needed to dispose of more spent fuels continuously from a nuclear power plant, or to attain a retrievability of an HLW repository at a depth of 500 m below the ground level in a stable plutonic rock body. In this sense, an extended operational duration for an HLW repository affects the overall disposal costs of a repository. In this paper, only the influence of a capital investment and a discount rate was estimated from the view of optimized economics. Because these effects must be significant factors to minimize the overall disposal costs based on minimizing the sum of operational costs and capital investments

Trade, Foreign Direct Investment or Acquisition: Optimal Entry Modes for Multinationals

OpenAIRE

Theo Eicher; Jong Woo Kang

2004-01-01

We examine multinationals’ optimal entry modes into foreign markets as a function of market size, FDI fixed costs, tariffs and transport costs. Our results highlight why large countries are more likely to attract acquisition investment, while intermediate-sized countries may be served predominantly through trade, even in the presence of high tariffs. Small countries are most likely to experience either FDI or no entry. We also show how these results vary with the competition intensity in th...

Optimal distributed energy resources and the cost of reduced greenhouse gas emissions in a large retail shopping centre

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Braslavsky, Julio H.; Wall, Josh R.; Reedman, Luke J.

2015-01-01

Highlights: • Optimal options for distributed energy resources are analysed for a shopping centre. • A multiobjective optimisation model is formulated and solved using DER-CAM. • Cost and emission trade-offs are compared in four key optimal investment scenarios. • Moderate investment in DER technologies lowers emissions by 29.6% and costs by 8.5%. • Larger investment in DER technologies lowers emissions by 72% at 47% higher costs. - Abstract: This paper presents a case study on optimal options for distributed energy resource (DER) technologies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in a large retail shopping centre located in Sydney, Australia. Large retail shopping centres take the largest share of energy consumed by all commercial buildings, and present a strong case for adoption of DER technologies to reduce energy costs and emissions. However, the complexity of optimally designing and operating DER systems has hindered their widespread adoption in practice. This paper examines and demonstrates the value of DER in reducing the carbon footprint of the shopping centre by formulating and solving a multiobjective optimisation problem using the Distributed Energy Resources Customer Adoption Model (DER-CAM) tool. An economic model of the shopping centre is developed in DER-CAM using on-site-specific demand, tariffs, and performance data for each DER technology option available. Four key optimal DER technology investment scenarios are then analysed by comparing: (1) solution trade-offs of costs and emissions, (2) the cost of reduced emissions attained in each investment scenario, and (3) investment benefits with respect to the business-as-usual scenario. The analysis shows that a moderate investment in combined cooling, heat and power (CCHP) technology alone can reduce annual energy costs by 8.5% and carbon dioxide-equivalent emissions by 29.6%. A larger investment in CCHP technology, in conjunction with on-site solar photovoltaic (PV) generation, can deliver

Inconsistent Investment and Consumption Problems

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kronborg, Morten Tolver; Steffensen, Mogens

2015-01-01

In a traditional Black–Scholes market we develop a verification theorem for a general class of investment and consumption problems where the standard dynamic programming principle does not hold. The theorem is an extension of the standard Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman equation in the form of a system...... of non-linear differential equations. We derive the optimal investment and consumption strategy for a mean-variance investor without pre-commitment endowed with labor income. In the case of constant risk aversion it turns out that the optimal amount of money to invest in stocks is independent of wealth...... of future labor income net of consumption. Using the verification theorem we give a detailed analysis of this problem. It turns out that the optimal amount of money to invest in stocks is given by a linear function of wealth plus the financial value of future labor income net of consumption. The optimal...

Benefits of using an optimization methodology for identifying robust process integration investments under uncertainty-A pulp mill example

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Svensson, Elin [Department of Energy and Environment, Division of Heat and Power Technology, Chalmers University of Technology, SE-412 96 Goeteborg (Sweden)], E-mail: elin.svensson@chalmers.se; Berntsson, Thore [Department of Energy and Environment, Division of Heat and Power Technology, Chalmers University of Technology, SE-412 96 Goeteborg (Sweden); Stroemberg, Ann-Brith [Fraunhofer-Chalmers Research Centre for Industrial Mathematics, Chalmers Science Park, SE-412 88 Gothenburg (Sweden)

2009-03-15

This paper presents a case study on the optimization of process integration investments in a pulp mill considering uncertainties in future electricity and biofuel prices and CO{sub 2} emissions charges. The work follows the methodology described in Svensson et al. [Svensson, E., Berntsson, T., Stroemberg, A.-B., Patriksson, M., 2008b. An optimization methodology for identifying robust process integration investments under uncertainty. Energy Policy, in press, (doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2008.10.023)] where a scenario-based approach is proposed for the modelling of uncertainties. The results show that the proposed methodology provides a way to handle the time dependence and the uncertainties of the parameters. For the analyzed case, a robust solution is found which turns out to be a combination of two opposing investment strategies. The difference between short-term and strategic views for the investment decision is analyzed and it is found that uncertainties are increasingly important to account for as a more strategic view is employed. Furthermore, the results imply that the obvious effect of policy instruments aimed at decreasing CO{sub 2} emissions is, in applications like this, an increased profitability for all energy efficiency investments, and not as much a shift between different alternatives.

Benefits of using an optimization methodology for identifying robust process integration investments under uncertainty. A pulp mill example

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Svensson, Elin; Berntsson, Thore [Department of Energy and Environment, Division of Heat and Power Technology, Chalmers University of Technology, SE-412 96 Goeteborg (Sweden); Stroemberg, Ann-Brith [Fraunhofer-Chalmers Research Centre for Industrial Mathematics, Chalmers Science Park, SE-412 88 Gothenburg (Sweden)

2009-03-15

This paper presents a case study on the optimization of process integration investments in a pulp mill considering uncertainties in future electricity and biofuel prices and CO{sub 2} emissions charges. The work follows the methodology described in Svensson et al. [Svensson, E., Berntsson, T., Stroemberg, A.-B., Patriksson, M., 2008b. An optimization methodology for identifying robust process integration investments under uncertainty. Energy Policy, in press, doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2008.10.023] where a scenario-based approach is proposed for the modelling of uncertainties. The results show that the proposed methodology provides a way to handle the time dependence and the uncertainties of the parameters. For the analyzed case, a robust solution is found which turns out to be a combination of two opposing investment strategies. The difference between short-term and strategic views for the investment decision is analyzed and it is found that uncertainties are increasingly important to account for as a more strategic view is employed. Furthermore, the results imply that the obvious effect of policy instruments aimed at decreasing CO{sub 2} emissions is, in applications like this, an increased profitability for all energy efficiency investments, and not as much a shift between different alternatives. (author)

Benefits of using an optimization methodology for identifying robust process integration investments under uncertainty-A pulp mill example

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Svensson, Elin; Berntsson, Thore; Stroemberg, Ann-Brith

2009-01-01

This paper presents a case study on the optimization of process integration investments in a pulp mill considering uncertainties in future electricity and biofuel prices and CO 2 emissions charges. The work follows the methodology described in Svensson et al. [Svensson, E., Berntsson, T., Stroemberg, A.-B., Patriksson, M., 2008b. An optimization methodology for identifying robust process integration investments under uncertainty. Energy Policy, in press, (doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2008.10.023)] where a scenario-based approach is proposed for the modelling of uncertainties. The results show that the proposed methodology provides a way to handle the time dependence and the uncertainties of the parameters. For the analyzed case, a robust solution is found which turns out to be a combination of two opposing investment strategies. The difference between short-term and strategic views for the investment decision is analyzed and it is found that uncertainties are increasingly important to account for as a more strategic view is employed. Furthermore, the results imply that the obvious effect of policy instruments aimed at decreasing CO 2 emissions is, in applications like this, an increased profitability for all energy efficiency investments, and not as much a shift between different alternatives

Smooth Solutions to Optimal Investment Models with Stochastic Volatilities and Portfolio Constraints

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pham, H.

2002-01-01

This paper deals with an extension of Merton's optimal investment problem to a multidimensional model with stochastic volatility and portfolio constraints. The classical dynamic programming approach leads to a characterization of the value function as a viscosity solution of the highly nonlinear associated Bellman equation. A logarithmic transformation expresses the value function in terms of the solution to a semilinear parabolic equation with quadratic growth on the derivative term. Using a stochastic control representation and some approximations, we prove the existence of a smooth solution to this semilinear equation. An optimal portfolio is shown to exist, and is expressed in terms of the classical solution to this semilinear equation. This reduction is useful for studying numerical schemes for both the value function and the optimal portfolio. We illustrate our results with several examples of stochastic volatility models popular in the financial literature

STRATEGIC EXERCISE OF REAL OPTIONS:INVESTMENT DECISIONS IN TECHNOLOGICAL SYSTEMS

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

Kevin ZHU; John WEYANT

2003-01-01

Viewing investment projects in new technologies as real options, this paper studies the effects of endogenous competition and asymmetric information on the strategic exercise of real options. We first develop a multi-period, game-theoretic model and show how competition leads to early exercise and aggressive investment behaviors and how competition erodes option values. We then relax the typical full-information assumption found in the literature and allow information asymmetry to exist across firms. Our model shows, in contrast to the literature that payoff is independent of the ordering of exercise, that the sequential exercise of real options may generate both informational and payoff externalities. We also find some surprising but interesting results such as having more information is not necessarily better.

Investment appraisal of automatic milking and conventional milking technologies in a pasture-based dairy system.

Science.gov (United States)

Shortall, J; Shalloo, L; Foley, C; Sleator, R D; O'Brien, B

2016-09-01

The successful integration of automatic milking (AM) systems and grazing has resulted in AM becoming a feasible alternative to conventional milking (CM) in pasture-based systems. The objective of this study was to identify the profitability of AM in a pasture-based system, relative to CM herringbone parlors with 2 different levels of automation, across 2 farm sizes, over a 10-yr period following initial investment. The scenarios which were evaluated were (1) a medium farm milking 70 cows twice daily, with 1 AM unit, a 12-unit CM medium-specification (MS) parlor and a 12-unit CM high-specification (HS) parlor, and (2) a large farm milking 140 cows twice daily with 2 AM units, a 20-unit CM MS parlor and a 20-unit CM HS parlor. A stochastic whole-farm budgetary simulation model combined capital investment costs and annual labor and maintenance costs for each investment scenario, with each scenario evaluated using multiple financial metrics, such as annual net profit, annual net cash flow, total discounted net profitability, total discounted net cash flow, and return on investment. The capital required for each investment was financed from borrowings at an interest rate of 5% and repaid over 10-yr, whereas milking equipment and building infrastructure were depreciated over 10 and 20 yr, respectively. A supporting labor audit (conducted on both AM and CM farms) showed a 36% reduction in labor demand associated with AM. However, despite this reduction in labor, MS CM technologies consistently achieved greater profitability, irrespective of farm size. The AM system achieved intermediate profitability at medium farm size; it was 0.5% less profitable than HS technology at the large farm size. The difference in profitability was greatest in the years after the initial investment. This study indicated that although milking with AM was less profitable than MS technologies, it was competitive when compared with a CM parlor of similar technology. Copyright © 2016 American Dairy

Carbon Capture and Storage Investment and Management in an Environment of Technological and Price Uncertainties

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Geske, Joachim; Herold, Johannes [Forschungszentrum Juelich and TU Dresden (Germany)

2009-07-01

In this paper we use a real options approach to analyze investment in a CCS postcombustion technology. Uncertainties in the development of efficiency and certificate prices are taken into account. We therefore propose a bounded monotone stochastic process to model energy efficiency development which is in line with thermodynamic limitations. The option not to employ the technology is allowed for. Parameter values are selected carefully. Numerical analysis shows plausible qualitative features. Furthermore there exist investment barriers for each uncertain parameter alone which reduce if interaction of the independent processes is permitted.

Distributed Energy Resources On-Site Optimization for Commercial Buildings with Electric and Thermal Storage Technologies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lacommare, Kristina S H; Stadler, Michael; Aki, Hirohisa; Firestone, Ryan; Lai, Judy; Marnay, Chris; Siddiqui, Afzal

2008-01-01

The addition of storage technologies such as flow batteries, conventional batteries, and heat storage can improve the economic as well as environmental attractiveness of on-site generation (e.g., PV, fuel cells, reciprocating engines or microturbines operating with or without CHP) and contribute to enhanced demand response. In order to examine the impact of storage technologies on demand response and carbon emissions, a microgrid's distributed energy resources (DER) adoption problem is formulated as a mixed-integer linear program that has the minimization of annual energy costs as its objective function. By implementing this approach in the General Algebraic Modeling System (GAMS), the problem is solved for a given test year at representative customer sites, such as schools and nursing homes, to obtain not only the level of technology investment, but also the optimal hourly operating schedules. This paper focuses on analysis of storage technologies in DER optimization on a building level, with example applications for commercial buildings. Preliminary analysis indicates that storage technologies respond effectively to time-varying electricity prices, i.e., by charging batteries during periods of low electricity prices and discharging them during peak hours. The results also indicate that storage technologies significantly alter the residual load profile, which can contribute to lower carbon emissions depending on the test site, its load profile, and its adopted DER technologies

Optimization as investment decision support in a Swedish medium-sized iron foundry - A move beyond traditional energy auditing

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Thollander, Patrik; Mardan, Nawzad; Karlsson, Magnus

2009-01-01

Due to increased globalisation, industries are facing greater competition that is pressing companies into decreasing their expenses in order to increase their profits. As regards Swedish industry, it has been faced with substantial increases in energy prices in recent years. Barriers to energy efficiency such as imperfect information inhibit investments in energy efficiency measures, energy audits being one means of reducing barriers and overcoming imperfect information. However, an evaluation of such energy audits in Sweden reveals that it is chiefly low-cost measures that are undertaken as a result of an audit. Moreover, these audits often tend to focus on support processes such as ventilation, lighting, air compressors etc., while measures impacting production processes are often not as extensively covered, which underlines the need for further support in addition to energy audits. Decision support is practised in a variety of different disciplines such as optimization and simulation and the aim of this paper is to explore whether investment decision support practices may be used successfully towards small and medium-sized manufacturers in Sweden when complex production-related investment decisions are taken. The optimization results from the different cases, involving a foundry's investment in a new melting unit, indicate that with no electricity price fluctuations over the day, the investment seems sound as it lowers the overall energy costs. However, with fluctuating electricity prices, there are no large differences in energy costs between the option of retaining the existing five melting furnaces at the foundry and investing in a twin furnace and removing the holding furnaces - which was the initial investment plan for the foundry in the study. It would not have been possible to achieve this outcome without the use of investment decision support such as MIND. One of the main conclusions in this paper is that investment decision support, when strategic

Pricing policy for declining demand using item preservation technology.

Science.gov (United States)

Khedlekar, Uttam Kumar; Shukla, Diwakar; Namdeo, Anubhav

2016-01-01

We have designed an inventory model for seasonal products in which deterioration can be controlled by item preservation technology investment. Demand for the product is considered price sensitive and decreases linearly. This study has shown that the profit is a concave function of optimal selling price, replenishment time and preservation cost parameter. We simultaneously determined the optimal selling price of the product, the replenishment cycle and the cost of item preservation technology. Additionally, this study has shown that there exists an optimal selling price and optimal preservation investment to maximize the profit for every business set-up. Finally, the model is illustrated by numerical examples and sensitive analysis of the optimal solution with respect to major parameters.

Inconsistent Investment and Consumption Problems

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kronborg, Morten Tolver, E-mail: mtk@atp.dk [ATP (Danish Labour Market Supplementary Pension Scheme) (Denmark); Steffensen, Mogens, E-mail: mogens@math.ku.dk [University of Copenhagen, Department of Mathematical Sciences (Denmark)

2015-06-15

In a traditional Black–Scholes market we develop a verification theorem for a general class of investment and consumption problems where the standard dynamic programming principle does not hold. The theorem is an extension of the standard Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman equation in the form of a system of non-linear differential equations. We derive the optimal investment and consumption strategy for a mean-variance investor without pre-commitment endowed with labor income. In the case of constant risk aversion it turns out that the optimal amount of money to invest in stocks is independent of wealth. The optimal consumption strategy is given as a deterministic bang-bang strategy. In order to have a more realistic model we allow the risk aversion to be time and state dependent. Of special interest is the case were the risk aversion is inversely proportional to present wealth plus the financial value of future labor income net of consumption. Using the verification theorem we give a detailed analysis of this problem. It turns out that the optimal amount of money to invest in stocks is given by a linear function of wealth plus the financial value of future labor income net of consumption. The optimal consumption strategy is again given as a deterministic bang-bang strategy. We also calculate, for a general time and state dependent risk aversion function, the optimal investment and consumption strategy for a mean-standard deviation investor without pre-commitment. In that case, it turns out that it is optimal to take no risk at all.

Inconsistent Investment and Consumption Problems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kronborg, Morten Tolver; Steffensen, Mogens

2015-01-01

In a traditional Black–Scholes market we develop a verification theorem for a general class of investment and consumption problems where the standard dynamic programming principle does not hold. The theorem is an extension of the standard Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman equation in the form of a system of non-linear differential equations. We derive the optimal investment and consumption strategy for a mean-variance investor without pre-commitment endowed with labor income. In the case of constant risk aversion it turns out that the optimal amount of money to invest in stocks is independent of wealth. The optimal consumption strategy is given as a deterministic bang-bang strategy. In order to have a more realistic model we allow the risk aversion to be time and state dependent. Of special interest is the case were the risk aversion is inversely proportional to present wealth plus the financial value of future labor income net of consumption. Using the verification theorem we give a detailed analysis of this problem. It turns out that the optimal amount of money to invest in stocks is given by a linear function of wealth plus the financial value of future labor income net of consumption. The optimal consumption strategy is again given as a deterministic bang-bang strategy. We also calculate, for a general time and state dependent risk aversion function, the optimal investment and consumption strategy for a mean-standard deviation investor without pre-commitment. In that case, it turns out that it is optimal to take no risk at all

Optimal R&D Investments of the Firm

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kort, P.M.

1996-01-01

This paper examines irreversible decisions on innovative activities where it takes time to complete an R&D project. The totala mountof R&D investments that the firm needs to undertake in order to obtain the breakthrough in the innovation process is uncertain. R&D investments are limited by the

PRODUCTIVITY AND LAND ENHANCING TECHNOLOGIES IN NORTHERN ETHIOPIA: HEALTH, PUBLIC INVESTMENTS, AND SEQUENTIAL ADOPTION

OpenAIRE

Ersado, Lire; Amacher, Gregory S.; Alwang, Jeffrey Roger

2003-01-01

The adoption of more efficient farming practices and technologies that enhance agricultural productivity and improve environmental sustainability is instrumental for achieving economic growth, food security and poverty alleviation in sub-Saharan Africa. Our research examines the interaction between public investments, community health, and adoption of productivity and land enhancing technologies by households in the northern Ethiopian state of Tigray. Agricultural technology adoption decision...

Optimal investment and location decisions of a firm in a flood risk area using Impulse Control Theory

Science.gov (United States)

Grames, Johanna; Grass, Dieter; Kort, Peter; Prskawetz, Alexia

2017-04-01

Flooding events can affect businesses close to rivers, lakes or coasts. This paper provides a partial equilibrium model which helps to understand the optimal location choice for a firm in flood risk areas and its investment strategies. How often, when and how much are firms willing to invest in flood risk protection measures? We apply Impulse Control Theory to solve the model analytically and develop a continuation algorithm to solve the model numerically. Firms always invest in flood defense. The investment increases the higher the flood risk and the more firms also value the future, i.e. the more sustainable they plan. Investments in production capital follow a similar path. Hence, planning in a sustainable way leads to economic growth. Sociohydrological feedbacks are crucial for the location choice of the firm, whereas different economic situations have an impact on investment strategies. If flood defense is already present, e.g. built up by the government, firms move closer to the water and invest less in flood defense, which allows firms to accrue higher expected profits. Firms with a large initial production capital surprisingly try not to keep their market advantage, but rather reduce flood risk by reducing exposed production capital.

Producer firms, technology diffusion and spillovers to local suppliers : Examining the effects of Foreign Direct Investment and the technology gap

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Jordaan, J.A.

2017-01-01

In this paper, we conduct a detailed examination of the effects of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and the technology gap on local technology dissemination and spillovers. Using unique firm level data from surveys among FDI firms and domestic producer firms and a random sample of their suppliers in

Does Foreign Direct Investment Transfer Technology Across Borders? A Reexamination

OpenAIRE

Jürgen Bitzer; Monika Kerekes

2005-01-01

Reexamining foreign direct investment (FDI) as a potential channel for knowledge diffusion -- based on industry data from seventeen OECD countries during the period 1973-2000 -- we find that FDI-receiving countries benefit strongly from FDI-related knowledge spillovers. We do not find evidence for positive FDI-related technology sourcing effects. Instead, our results suggest that outward FDI might have negative effects on the output of the FDI-sending country.

Modeling investment uncertainty in the costs of global CO2 emission policy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Birge, J.R.; Rosa, C.H.

1995-01-01

This paper investigates the effect that explicit modeling of stochastic returns to investment has on the CO 2 abatement policy returned by a large scale macroeconomic model of the United States economy. It was found that a policy derived from the mean value deterministic model in which the random variables of the stochastic model have been replaced by their expected value poorly approximates the optimal policy returned by solving the stochastic programming model. This nonoptimality is measured by determining the value of the stochastic solution and investigating the different evolutionary paths that various macroeconomic variables follow. Macroeconomic variables which stray far from their optimal paths when derived under the assumption of a certain mean valued future are as follows: the level of carbon taxation, investment in new energy production technologies, exploration for nonrenewable resources and investment in improved macroeconomic efficiency. 18 refs., 17 figs., 6 tabs

Investment, regulation, and uncertainty

Science.gov (United States)

Smyth, Stuart J; McDonald, Jillian; Falck-Zepeda, Jose

2014-01-01

As with any technological innovation, time refines the technology, improving upon the original version of the innovative product. The initial GM crops had single traits for either herbicide tolerance or insect resistance. Current varieties have both of these traits stacked together and in many cases other abiotic and biotic traits have also been stacked. This innovation requires investment. While this is relatively straight forward, certain conditions need to exist such that investments can be facilitated. The principle requirement for investment is that regulatory frameworks render consistent and timely decisions. If the certainty of regulatory outcomes weakens, the potential for changes in investment patterns increases.   This article provides a summary background to the leading plant breeding technologies that are either currently being used to develop new crop varieties or are in the pipeline to be applied to plant breeding within the next few years. Challenges for existing regulatory systems are highlighted. Utilizing an option value approach from investment literature, an assessment of uncertainty regarding the regulatory approval for these varying techniques is undertaken. This research highlights which technology development options have the greatest degree of uncertainty and hence, which ones might be expected to see an investment decline. PMID:24499745

Healthcare's Future: Strategic Investment in Technology.

Science.gov (United States)

Franklin, Michael A

2018-01-01

Recent and rapid advances in the implementation of technology have greatly affected the quality and efficiency of healthcare delivery in the United States. Simultaneously, diverse generational pressures-including the consumerism of millennials and unsustainable growth in the costs of care for baby boomers-have accelerated a revolution in healthcare delivery that was marked in 2010 by the passage of the Affordable Care Act.Against this backdrop, Maryland and the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services entered into a partnership in 2014 to modernize the Maryland All-Payer Model. Under this architecture, each Maryland hospital negotiates a global budget revenue agreement with the state's rate-setting agency, limiting the hospital's annual revenue to the budgetary cap established by the state.At Atlantic General Hospital (AGH), leaders had established a disciplined strategic planning process in which the board of trustees, medical staff, and administration annually agree on goals and initiatives to achieve the objectives set forth in its five-year strategic plans. This article describes two initiatives to improve care using technology. In 2006, AGH introduced a service guarantee in the emergency room (ER); the ER 30-Minute Promise assures patients that they will be placed in a bed or receive care within 30 minutes of arrival in the ER. In 2007, several independent hospitals in the state formed Maryland eCare to jointly contract for intensive care unit (ICU) physician coverage via telemedicine. This technology allows clinical staff to continuously monitor ICU patients remotely. The positive results of the ER 30-Minute Promise and Maryland eCare program show that technological advances in an independent, small, rural hospital can make a significant impact on its ability to maintain independence. AGH's strategic investments prepared the organization well for the transition in 2014 to a value-based payment system.

An energy pricing scheme for the diffusion of decentralized renewable technology investment in developing countries

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Thiam, Djiby Racine

2011-01-01

The purpose of this paper is to investigate price support for market penetration of renewable energy in developing nations through a decentralized supply process. We integrate the new decentralized energy support: renewable premium tariff, to analyze impacts of tariff incentives on the diffusion of renewable technology in Senegal. Based on photovoltaic and wind technologies and an assessment of renewable energy resources in Senegal, an optimization technique is combined with a cash flow analysis to investigate investment decisions in renewable energy sector. Our findings indicate that this support mechanism could strengthen the sustainable deployment of renewable energy in remote areas of Senegal. Although different payoffs emerged, profits associated with a renewable premium tariff are the highest among the set of existing payoffs. Moreover in analyzing impacts of price incentives on social welfare, we show that price tariffing schemes must be strategically scrutinized in order to minimize welfare loss associated with price incentives. Finally we argue that a sustainable promotion of incentive mechanisms supporting deployment of renewable technology in developing nations should be carried out under reliable institutional structures. The additional advantage of the proposed methodology is its ability to integrate different stakeholders (producers, investors and consumers) in the planning process. - Highlights: → We simulate impacts of price support for market penetration of renewable technology in developing nations. → An array of price incentive mechanisms strengthens diffusion of renewable technology in Senegal. → Moreover, reliable institutional frameworks in developing nations are a requirement in order to strengthen diffusion path of renewable technologies.

Artificial intelligence and exponential technologies business models evolution and new investment opportunities

CERN Document Server

Corea, Francesco

2017-01-01

Artificial Intelligence is a huge breakthrough technology that is changing our world. It requires some degrees of technical skills to be developed and understood, so in this book we are going to first of all define AI and categorize it with a non-technical language. We will explain how we reached this phase and what historically happened to artificial intelligence in the last century. Recent advancements in machine learning, neuroscience, and artificial intelligence technology will be addressed, and new business models introduced for and by artificial intelligence research will be analyzed. Finally, we will describe the investment landscape, through the quite comprehensive study of almost 14,000 AI companies and we will discuss important features and characteristics of both AI investors as well as investments. This is the “Internet of Thinks” era. AI is revolutionizing the world we live in. It is augmenting the human experiences, and it targets to amplify human intelligence in a future not so distant from...

Transportation Energy Futures Series: Vehicle Technology Deployment Pathways: An Examination of Timing and Investment Constraints

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Plotkin, S.; Stephens, T.; McManus, W.

2013-03-01

Scenarios of new vehicle technology deployment serve various purposes; some will seek to establish plausibility. This report proposes two reality checks for scenarios: (1) implications of manufacturing constraints on timing of vehicle deployment and (2) investment decisions required to bring new vehicle technologies to market. An estimated timeline of 12 to more than 22 years from initial market introduction to saturation is supported by historical examples and based on the product development process. Researchers also consider the series of investment decisions to develop and build the vehicles and their associated fueling infrastructure. A proposed decision tree analysis structure could be used to systematically examine investors' decisions and the potential outcomes, including consideration of cash flow and return on investment. This method requires data or assumptions about capital cost, variable cost, revenue, timing, and probability of success/failure, and would result in a detailed consideration of the value proposition of large investments and long lead times. This is one of a series of reports produced as a result of the Transportation Energy Futures (TEF) project, a Department of Energy-sponsored multi-agency effort to pinpoint underexplored strategies for abating GHGs and reducing petroleum dependence related to transportation.

Transportation Energy Futures Series. Vehicle Technology Deployment Pathways. An Examination of Timing and Investment Constraints

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Plotkin, Steve [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Stephens, Thomas [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); McManus, Walter [Oakland Univ., Rochester, MI (United States)

2013-03-01

Scenarios of new vehicle technology deployment serve various purposes; some will seek to establish plausibility. This report proposes two reality checks for scenarios: (1) implications of manufacturing constraints on timing of vehicle deployment and (2) investment decisions required to bring new vehicle technologies to market. An estimated timeline of 12 to more than 22 years from initial market introduction to saturation is supported by historical examples and based on the product development process. Researchers also consider the series of investment decisions to develop and build the vehicles and their associated fueling infrastructure. A proposed decision tree analysis structure could be used to systematically examine investors' decisions and the potential outcomes, including consideration of cash flow and return on investment. This method requires data or assumptions about capital cost, variable cost, revenue, timing, and probability of success/failure, and would result in a detailed consideration of the value proposition of large investments and long lead times. This is one of a series of reports produced as a result of the Transportation Energy Futures (TEF) project, a Department of Energy-sponsored multi-agency effort to pinpoint underexplored strategies for abating GHGs and reducing petroleum dependence related to transportation.

Irreversible investments revisited

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sandal, Leif K.; Steinshamn, Stein I.; Hoff, Ayoe

2007-01-01

A multi-dimensional, non-linear dynamic model in continuous time is presented for the purpose of finding the optimal combination of exploitation and capital investment in optimal renewable resource management. Non-malleability of capital is incorporated in the model through an asymmetric cost......-function of investment, and investments can be both positive and negative. Exploitation is controlled through the utilisation rate of available capital. A novel feature in this model is that there are costs associated with the available capital whether it is utilised or not. And, in contrast to most of the previous...... literature, the state variables, namely the physical capital and the biological resource, enter the objective function. Due to the nonlinearities in this model some of the results are in sharp contrast to previous literature....

Returns on investments in energy-saving technologies under energy price uncertainty in Dutch greenhouse horticulture

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Diederen, P.J.M.; Tongeren, van F.W.; Veen, van der H.B.

2003-01-01

Conventional net present value calculations evaluating the profitability of investments in energy-saving technologies in Dutch horticultural outlays predict a much higher rate of adoption of these technologies than is actually observed. This paper tries to explain this gap by applying a real options

Control of Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Optimal DER Technology Investment and Energy Management in Zero-Net-Energy Buildings

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stadler, Michael; Siddiqui, Afzal; Marnay, Chris; Aki, Hirohisa; Lai, Judy

2009-01-01

The U.S. Department of Energy has launched the commercial building initiative (CBI) in pursuit of its research goal of achieving zero-net-energy commercial buildings (ZNEB), i.e. ones that produce as much energy as they use. Its objective is to make these buildings marketable by 2025 such that they minimize their energy use through cutting-edge, energy-efficiency technologies and meet their remaining energy needs through on-site renewable energy generation. This paper examines how such buildings may be implemented within the context of a cost- or CO2-minimizing microgrid that is able to adopt and operate various technologies: photovoltaic modules (PV) and other on-site generation, heat exchangers, solar thermal collectors, absorption chillers, and passive/demand-response technologies. A mixed-integer linear program (MILP) that has a multi-criteria objective function is used. The objective is minimization of a weighted average of the building's annual energy costs and CO2 emissions. The MILP's constraints ensure energy balance and capacity limits. In addition, constraining the building's energy consumed to equal its energy exports enables us to explore how energy sales and demand-response measures may enable compliance with the ZNEB objective. Using a commercial test site in northernCalifornia with existing tariff rates and technology data, we find that a ZNEB requires ample PV capacity installed to ensure electricity sales during the day. This is complemented by investment in energy-efficient combined heat and power (CHP) equipment, while occasional demand response shaves energy consumption. A large amount of storage is also adopted, which may be impractical. Nevertheless, it shows the nature of the solutions and costs necessary to achieve a ZNEB. Additionally, the ZNEB approach does not necessary lead to zero-carbon (ZC) buildings as is frequently argued. We also show a multi-objective frontier for the CA example, whichallows us to estimate the needed technologies

Forecasting the Optimal Factors of Formation of the Population Savings as the Basis for Investment Resources of the Regional Economy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Odintsova Tetiana M.

2017-04-01

Full Text Available The article is aimed at studying the optimal factors of formation of the population savings as the basis for investment resources of the regional economy. A factorial (nonlinear correlative-regression analysis of the formation of savings of the population of Ukraine was completed. On its basis a forecast of the optimal structure and volumes of formation of the population incomes was carried out taking into consideration impact of fundamental factors on these incomes. Such approach provides to identify the marginal volumes of tax burden, population savings, and capital investments, directed to economic growth.

Adjust or invest : what is the best option to green a supply chain?

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bouchery, Y.; Ghaffari, A.; Jemai, Z.; Dallery, Y.

2011-01-01

Greening a supply chain can be achieved by considering several options. However, companies lack of clear guidelines to assess and compare these options. In this paper, we propose to use multiobjective optimization to assess operational adjustment and technology investment options in terms of cost

Energy Technology Investments: Maximizing Efficiency Through a Maritime Energy Portfolio Interface and Decision Aid

Science.gov (United States)

2012-02-09

Investment (ROI) and Break Even Point ( BEP ). These metrics are essential for determining whether an initiative would be worth pursuing. Balanced...is Unlimited Energy Decision Framework Identify Inefficiencies 2. Perform Analyses 3. Examine Technology Candidates 1. Improve Energy...Unlimited Energy Decision Framework Identify Inefficiencies 2. Perform Analyses 3. Examine Technology Candidates 1. Improve Energy Efficiency 4

Precommitted Investment Strategy versus Time-Consistent Investment Strategy for a Dual Risk Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lidong Zhang

2014-01-01

Full Text Available We are concerned with optimal investment strategy for a dual risk model. We assume that the company can invest into a risk-free asset and a risky asset. Short-selling and borrowing money are allowed. Due to lack of iterated-expectation property, the Bellman Optimization Principle does not hold. Thus we investigate the precommitted strategy and time-consistent strategy, respectively. We take three steps to derive the precommitted investment strategy. Furthermore, the time-consistent investment strategy is also obtained by solving the extended Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equations. We compare the precommitted strategy with time-consistent strategy and find that these different strategies have different advantages: the former can make value function maximized at the original time t=0 and the latter strategy is time-consistent for the whole time horizon. Finally, numerical analysis is presented for our results.

Foreign direct investment and technology spillovers in Mexico: 20 years of NAFTA

OpenAIRE

Armas, Enrique; Rodríguez, José Carlos

2017-01-01

This article analyses the development of technology capabilities in the manufacturing sector of Mexico during the last two decades. It has been argued that the inclusion of Mexico in the North America Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) in 1994 would be enough to catch up with Canada and the United States. In this regard, trade liberalisation and foreign direct investment (FDI) would have been two strategic tools to close the technology gap between Mexico and its commercial partners in North America...

On investment, uncertainty, and strategic interaction with applications in energy markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Murto, P.

2003-01-01

The thesis presents dynamic models on investment under uncertainty with the focus on strategic interaction and energy market applications. The uncertainty is modelled using stochastic processes as state variables. The specific questions analyzed include the effect of technological and revenue related uncertainties on the optimal timing of investment, the irreversibility in the choice between alternative investment projects with different degrees of uncertainty, and the effect of strategic interaction on the initiating of discrete investment projects, on the abandonment of a project, and on incremental capacity investments. The main methodological feature is the incorporation of game theoretic concepts in the theory of investment. It is argued that such an approach is often desirable in terms of real applications, because many industries are characterized by both uncertainty and strategic interaction between the firms. Besides extending the theory of investment, this line of work may be seen as an extension of the theory of industrial organization towards the direction that views market stability as one of the factors explaining rational behaviour of the firms. (orig.)

Optimal Investment in Structured Bonds

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jessen, Pernille; Jørgensen, Peter Løchte

2012-01-01

of the article is to provide possible explanations for the puzzle of why small retail investors hold structured bonds. The investment universe consists of a stock index, a risk-free bank account, and a structured bond containing an option written on another index. We apply expected utility maximization...

An exploratory investigation of barriers and enablers affecting investment in renewable companies and technologies in the UK.

Science.gov (United States)

Wells, Victoria; Greenwell, Felicity; Covey, Judith; Rosenthal, Harriet E S; Adcock, Mike; Gregory-Smith, Diana

2013-02-06

The last few years have seen considerable research expenditure on renewable fuel technologies. However, in many cases, the necessary sustained and long-term funding from the investment community has not been realized at a level needed to allow technologies to become reality. According to global consulting firm Deloitte's recent renewable energy report (http://www.deloitte.com/energypredictions2012), many renewable energy projects stalled or were not completed because of issues including the global economy, the state of government finances, difficulties in funding and regulatory uncertainty. This investigation concentrates on the funding aspect and explores the perceived barriers and enablers to renewable technologies within the investment and renewables community. Thematic analysis of 14 in-depth interviews with representatives from renewable energy producers, banks and investment companies identified key factors affecting the psychology of investor behaviour in renewables. Eight key issues are highlighted, including a range of barriers and enablers, the role of the government, balance between cost/risk, value/return on investment, investment time scales, personality/individual differences of investors and the level of innovation in the renewable technology. It was particularly notable that in the findings the role of the government was discussed more than other themes and generally in quite critical terms, highlighting the need to ensure consistency in government funding and policy and a greater understanding of how government decision-making happens. Specific findings such as these illustrate the value of crossing disciplinary boundaries and highlight potential further research. Behavioural science and economic psychology in particular have much to offer at the interface of other disciplines such as political science and financial economics.

An exploratory investigation of barriers and enablers affecting investment in renewable companies and technologies in the UK

Science.gov (United States)

Wells, Victoria; Greenwell, Felicity; Covey, Judith; Rosenthal, Harriet E. S.; Adcock, Mike; Gregory-Smith, Diana

2013-01-01

The last few years have seen considerable research expenditure on renewable fuel technologies. However, in many cases, the necessary sustained and long-term funding from the investment community has not been realized at a level needed to allow technologies to become reality. According to global consulting firm Deloitte's recent renewable energy report (http://www.deloitte.com/energypredictions2012), many renewable energy projects stalled or were not completed because of issues including the global economy, the state of government finances, difficulties in funding and regulatory uncertainty. This investigation concentrates on the funding aspect and explores the perceived barriers and enablers to renewable technologies within the investment and renewables community. Thematic analysis of 14 in-depth interviews with representatives from renewable energy producers, banks and investment companies identified key factors affecting the psychology of investor behaviour in renewables. Eight key issues are highlighted, including a range of barriers and enablers, the role of the government, balance between cost/risk, value/return on investment, investment time scales, personality/individual differences of investors and the level of innovation in the renewable technology. It was particularly notable that in the findings the role of the government was discussed more than other themes and generally in quite critical terms, highlighting the need to ensure consistency in government funding and policy and a greater understanding of how government decision-making happens. Specific findings such as these illustrate the value of crossing disciplinary boundaries and highlight potential further research. Behavioural science and economic psychology in particular have much to offer at the interface of other disciplines such as political science and financial economics. PMID:24427512

Replica Approach for Minimal Investment Risk with Cost

Science.gov (United States)

Shinzato, Takashi

2018-06-01

In the present work, the optimal portfolio minimizing the investment risk with cost is discussed analytically, where an objective function is constructed in terms of two negative aspects of investment, the risk and cost. We note the mathematical similarity between the Hamiltonian in the mean-variance model and the Hamiltonians in the Hopfield model and the Sherrington-Kirkpatrick model, show that we can analyze this portfolio optimization problem by using replica analysis, and derive the minimal investment risk with cost and the investment concentration of the optimal portfolio. Furthermore, we validate our proposed method through numerical simulations.

Technology investment fund : issues for consideration : issue paper for an expert workshop

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Drexhage, J.

2006-12-01

This document was prepared in advance of an expert workshop held to discuss technology investment funds (TIF) related to Canada's Clean Air Act. TIFs are being considered in the development of the Clean Air Act as a compliance option for air emissions regulations. Energy production is expected to dominate Canadian business in the future, and the domestic sector is undergoing a marked shift from conventional to unconventional sources such as oil sands, coalbed methane (CBM) and liquefied natural gas. Technological solutions are required to allow Canada to obtain the benefits of the country's natural resource wealth while reducing impacts to the environment. However, solutions will vary from region to region. The report examined issues related to financing research and demonstration programs. Research and development policies were discussed, as well as the role of the government in encouraging public and private partnerships. It was suggested that a portfolio of policy approaches will be required, as well as a compliance-based TIF designed to address a range of greenhouse gas (GHG) and air pollutants. Issues concerning rates of contributions and recognition for existing technology investments were also reviewed. Various taxes, levies, and funding approaches were outlined. It was concluded that a successful TIF will form part of an overall emissions trading framework.1 tab

Improving Energy Efficiency Through Technology. Trends, Investment Behaviour and Policy Design

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Florax, R.J.G.M. [Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN (United States); De Groot, H.L.F. [VU University, Amsterdam (Netherlands); Mulder, P. [Tinbergen Institute, Amsterdam (Netherlands)] (eds.)

2011-10-15

This innovative book explores the adoption of energy-saving technologies and their impact on energy efficiency improvements. It contains a mix of theoretical and empirical contributions, and combines and compares economic and physical indicators to monitor and analyse trends in energy efficiency. The authors pay considerable attention to empirical research on the determinants of energy-saving investment including uncertainty, energy-price volatility and subsidies. They also discuss the role of energy modelling in policy design and the potential effect of energy policies on technology diffusion in energy-extensive sectors. Written from a multi-disciplinary perspective, this book will appeal to academics and graduates in the areas of energy-saving technologies, energy economics and natural resource economics, as well as policy makers - particularly those in energy policy.

A case for Sandia investment in complex adaptive systems science and technology.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Colbaugh, Richard; Tsao, Jeffrey Yeenien; Johnson, Curtis Martin; Backus, George A.; Brown, Theresa Jean; Jones, Katherine A.

2012-05-01

This white paper makes a case for Sandia National Laboratories investments in complex adaptive systems science and technology (S&T) -- investments that could enable higher-value-added and more-robustly-engineered solutions to challenges of importance to Sandia's national security mission and to the nation. Complex adaptive systems are ubiquitous in Sandia's national security mission areas. We often ignore the adaptive complexity of these systems by narrowing our 'aperture of concern' to systems or subsystems with a limited range of function exposed to a limited range of environments over limited periods of time. But by widening our aperture of concern we could increase our impact considerably. To do so, the science and technology of complex adaptive systems must mature considerably. Despite an explosion of interest outside of Sandia, however, that science and technology is still in its youth. What has been missing is contact with real (rather than model) systems and real domain-area detail. With its center-of-gravity as an engineering laboratory, Sandia's has made considerable progress applying existing science and technology to real complex adaptive systems. It has focused much less, however, on advancing the science and technology itself. But its close contact with real systems and real domain-area detail represents a powerful strength with which to help complex adaptive systems science and technology mature. Sandia is thus both a prime beneficiary of, as well as potentially a prime contributor to, complex adaptive systems science and technology. Building a productive program in complex adaptive systems science and technology at Sandia will not be trivial, but a credible path can be envisioned: in the short run, continue to apply existing science and technology to real domain-area complex adaptive systems; in the medium run, jump-start the creation of new science and technology capability through Sandia's Laboratory Directed Research

A System Dynamics Analysis of Investment, Technology and Policy that Affect Natural Gas Exploration and Exploitation in China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jianzhong Xiao

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Natural gas has an increasing role in Chinese energy transformation. We present a system dynamics model of the natural gas industry in China. A new system dynamics model for natural gas companies based on reserve exploration and well construction as well as investment dynamics is proposed. The contribution of the paper is to analyze the influence of technology, investment and policy factors on the natural gas industry. We found that the dynamics of the main variables, including gas policy, cost of investment, accounting depreciation and exploitation technology, are sensitive to the sustainable development of resources. The simulations and results presented here will be helpful for government to reform policies, and for upstream companies to make decisions.

HOSPITAL MANAGERS' NEED FOR INFORMATION ON HEALTH TECHNOLOGY INVESTMENTS.

Science.gov (United States)

Ølholm, Anne Mette; Kidholm, Kristian; Birk-Olsen, Mette; Christensen, Janne Buck

2015-01-01

There is growing interest in implementing hospital-based health technology assessment (HB-HTA) as a tool to facilitate decision making based on a systematic and multidisciplinary assessment of evidence. However, the decision-making process, including the informational needs of hospital decision makers, is not well described. The objective was to review empirical studies analysing the information that hospital decision makers need when deciding about health technology (HT) investments. A systematic review of empirical studies published in English or Danish from 2000 to 2012 was carried out. The literature was assessed by two reviewers working independently. The identified informational needs were assessed with regard to their agreement with the nine domains of EUnetHTA's Core Model. A total of 2,689 articles were identified and assessed. The review process resulted in 14 relevant studies containing 74 types of information that hospital decision makers found relevant. In addition to information covered by the Core Model, other types of information dealing with political and strategic aspects were identified. The most frequently mentioned types of information in the literature related to clinical, economic and political/strategic aspects. Legal, social, and ethical aspects were seldom considered most important. Hospital decision makers are able to describe their information needs when deciding on HT investments. The different types of information were not of equal importance to hospital decision makers, however, and full agreement between EUnetHTA's Core Model and the hospital decision-makers' informational needs was not observed. They also need information on political and strategic aspects not covered by the Core Model.

Information Technology Management: Reporting of DoD Capital Investments for Information Technology in Support of the FY 2006 Budget Submission

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Truex, Kathryn M; Shaffer, Robert L; Leighton, George A; Johnson, Robert R; Brunetti, Tina N; Courtade, Rebecca S; Woodruff, Courtney E; Buscaigio, James J; Gavura, Cindy L

2005-01-01

Who Should Read This Report and Why? DoD managers preparing and certifying capital investment justifications for information technology should read this report to improve the quality of data being submitted by the Department of Defense...

Vehicle routing problem in investment fund allocation

Science.gov (United States)

Mamat, Nur Jumaadzan Zaleha; Jaaman, Saiful Hafizah; Ahmad, Rokiah Rozita; Mohd, Ismail

2013-04-01

Since its introduction by Dantzig and Ramser in 1959, vehicle routing problem keeps evolving in theories, applications and variability. The evolution in computing and technology are also important contributors to research in solving vehicle routing problem. The main sectors of interests among researchers and practitioners for vehicle routing problem are transportation, distribution and logistics. However, literature found that concept and benefits of vehicle routing problem are not taken advantages of by researchers in the field of investment. Other methods found used in investment include multi-objective programming, linear programming, goal programming and integer programming. Yet the application of vehicle routing problem is not fully explored. A proposal on a framework of the fund allocation optimization using vehicle routing problem is presented here. Preliminary results using FTSE Bursa Malaysia data testing the framework are also given.

Policy Uncertainty, Investment and Commitment Periods

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2007-07-01

Today's investment decisions in key sectors such as energy, forestry or transport have significant impacts on the levels of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions over the coming decades. Given the economic and environmental long-term implications of capital investment and retirement, a climate mitigation regime should aim to encourage capital investment in climate-friendly technologies. Many factors affect technology choice and the timing of investment, including investor expectations about future prices and policies. Recent international discussions have focused on the importance of providing more certainty about future climate policy stringency. The design of commitment periods can play a role in creating this environment. This paper assesses how the length of commitment periods influences policy uncertainty and investment decisions. In particular, the paper analyses the relationship between commitment period length and near term investment decisions in climate friendly technology.

Calculation of Investments for the Distribution of GPON Technology in the village of Bishtazhin through database

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

MSc. Jusuf Qarkaxhija

2013-12-01

Full Text Available According to daily reports, the income from internet services is getting lower each year. Landline phone services are running at a loss,  whereas mobile phone services are getting too mainstream and the only bright spot holding together cable operators (ISP  in positive balance is the income from broadband services (Fast internet, IPTV. Broadband technology is a term that defines multiple methods of information distribution through internet at great speed. Some of the broadband technologies are: optic fiber, coaxial cable, DSL, Wireless, mobile broadband, and satellite connection.  The ultimate goal of any broadband service provider is being able to provide voice, data and the video through a single network, called triple play service. The Internet distribution remains an important issue in Kosovo and particularly in rural zones. Considering the immense development of the technologies and different alternatives that we can face, the goal of this paper is to emphasize the necessity of a forecasting of such investment and to give an experience in this aspect. Because of the fact that in this investment are involved many factors related to population, geographical factors, several technologies and the fact that these factors are in continuously change, the best way is, to store all the data in a database and to use this database for different results. This database helps us to substitute the previous manual calculations with an automatic procedure of calculations. This way of work will improve the work style, having now all the tools to take the right decision about an Internet investment considering all the aspects of this investment.

Optimal investment decisions with a liability: the case of defined benefit pension plans

OpenAIRE

Josa-Fombellida, Ricardo; Rincón-Zapatero, Juan Pablo

2006-01-01

In this paper the optimal management of an aggregated dynamic pension fund is studied. To cover the promised liabilities to workers at the age of retirement, the plan sponsor continuously manages time-varying funds. He or she can choose the rate of contribution to the fund, the investment in a given number of risky assets, and a security with constant rate of return. The problem of maximizing the probability that the fund assets achieve some prescribed goal before some undesirable lower value...

Optimal Aging and Death

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Dalgaard, Carl-Johan Lars; Strulik, Holger

2010-01-01

health investments. At the same time, physiological aspects of the aging process influence optimal savings and health investment. We calibrate the model for the average US male in 2000 and proceed to show that the calibrated model accounts well for the cross-country link between labor productivity......This study introduces physiological aging into a simple model of optimal intertemporal consumption. In this endeavor we draw on the natural science literature on aging. According to the purposed theory, the speed of the aging process and the time of death are endogenously determined by optimal...... and life expectancy in the same year ("the Preston curve"); cross-country income differences can explain differences in life expectancy at age 20 of up to a decade. Moreover, technological change in health care of about 1.1% per year can account for the observed shift in the Preston curve between 1980...

Scenario-informed multiple criteria analysis for prioritizing investments in electricity capacity expansion

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Martinez, Lauro J.; Lambert, James H.; Karvetski, Christopher W.

2011-01-01

Planning the expansion and energy security of electricity capacity for a national electricity utility is a complex task in almost any economy. Planning is usually an iterative activity and can involve the use of large scale planning optimization systems accompanied by assessment of uncertain scenarios emerging from economic, technological, environmental, and regulatory developments. This paper applies a multiple criteria decision analysis to prioritize investment portfolios in capacity expansion and energy security while principally studying the robustness of the prioritization to multiple uncertain and emergent scenarios. The scenarios are identified through interaction with decision makers and stakeholders. The approach finds which scenarios most affect the prioritization of the portfolios and which portfolios have the greatest upside and downside potential across scenarios. The approach fosters innovation in the use of robust and efficient technologies, renewable energy sources, and cleaner energy fuels. A demonstration is provided for assessing the performance of technology portfolios constructed from investments in nine electricity generation technologies in Mexico.

Should France invest in new nuclear technology? The enhancement of the EPR project using 'real option' method

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Epaulard, A.; Gallon, St.

2000-01-01

The mathematical tools developed to enhance financial options can also be used to calculate the economics value of investment projects which offer flexibility but whose return is uncertain (like options offered on the stock exchange). In this article, an enhancement method of this kind is applied to a construction project (in 2000) for an EPR nuclear prototype. This prototype will make it possible to use EPR to renew the French electrical infrastructure in 2020 (flexibility), but its economic value will depend upon competitiveness vis-a-vis other production methods available at this time (hence an uncertain return). We demonstrate that investing in EPR technology in 2000 will provide sufficient flexibility in 2020 to be considered profitable, even though it is improbable that the EPR technology will be used at the end of this period. The investment agreed in 2000 to expand EPR technology therefore effectively has the role of an option, or of an insurance policy (guaranteeing against the risk that traditional electricity production methods will be expensive in 2020). (authors)

Investing in New Technology in Pulmonary Medicine: Navigating the Tortuous Path to Success.

Science.gov (United States)

Kruklitis, Robert; French, Kim; Cangelosi, Michael Joseph; Kovitz, Kevin L

2017-09-01

The introduction of new technologies offers the promise to advance medicine. This occurs alongside improved efforts to control costs of health care by hospital administrators, the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services' (CMS) pivot to value programs, and commercial payers' efforts to reduce reimbursement. These trends present a challenge for the pulmonologist, among others, who must navigate increasingly complex and highly scrutinized evaluation processes used to secure new technology (NT). Health-care providers are turning toward value assessments while simultaneously tasked with the mission of offering state of the art technologies and services. Pulmonologists desiring NT are thus faced with increased scrutiny in their evaluation of costs and clinical data to support investments. Consideration of this scrutiny and further evidence to temper the evaluation will improve the likelihood of adoption and patient access to clinically impactful technology. The identification of this evidence may provide a comprehensive view of the clinical and economic benefits of such technologies to both administrators and pulmonary clinicians. It is imperative that all parties involved in the decision process work collaboratively to deploy value added and clinically impactful technologies. Although a physician group might invest in such NT, the capital required often leads such decisions to a larger organization such as a hospital, health-care system, or privately owned entity. This article aims to provide a framework for pulmonary clinicians to better understand the processes that purchasers use to evaluate NT, the pressures that influence their consideration, and what resources may be leveraged toward success. Copyright © 2017 American College of Chest Physicians. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Optimal investment in a portfolio of HIV prevention programs.

Science.gov (United States)

Zaric, G S; Brandeau, M L

2001-01-01

In this article, the authors determine the optimal allocation of HIV prevention funds and investigate the impact of different allocation methods on health outcomes. The authors present a resource allocation model that can be used to determine the allocation of HIV prevention funds that maximizes quality-adjusted life years (or life years) gained or HIV infections averted in a population over a specified time horizon. They apply the model to determine the allocation of a limited budget among 3 types of HIV prevention programs in a population of injection drug users and nonusers: needle exchange programs, methadone maintenance treatment, and condom availability programs. For each prevention program, the authors estimate a production function that relates the amount invested to the associated change in risky behavior. The authors determine the optimal allocation of funds for both objective functions for a high-prevalence population and a low-prevalence population. They also consider the allocation of funds under several common rules of thumb that are used to allocate HIV prevention resources. It is shown that simpler allocation methods (e.g., allocation based on HIV incidence or notions of equity among population groups) may lead to alloctions that do not yield the maximum health benefit. The optimal allocation of HIV prevention funds in a population depends on HIV prevalence and incidence, the objective function, the production functions for the prevention programs, and other factors. Consideration of cost, equity, and social and political norms may be important when allocating HIV prevention funds. The model presented in this article can help decision makers determine the health consequences of different allocations of funds.

Optimizing use of library technology.

Science.gov (United States)

Wink, Diane M; Killingsworth, Elizabeth K

2011-01-01

In this bimonthly series, the author examines how nurse educators can use the Internet and Web-based computer technologies such as search, communication, collaborative writing tools; social networking and social bookmarking sites; virtual worlds; and Web-based teaching and learning programs. This article describes optimizing the use of library technology.

The Role of Technology, Investment and Ownership Structure in the Productivity Performance of the Manufacturing Sector in Vietnam

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Newman, Carol; Narciso, Gaia; Tarp, Finn

2009-01-01

. The empirical analysis reveals investment and technology usage as important determinants of enterprise productivity levels. Specifically, higher levels of productivity are found in foreign- and state-owned enterprises, driven almost entirely by higher levels of investment and technology usage. Our results...... in almost all sectors and that for many sectors the dispersion in productivity is declining over time. However, for the most productive sectors the gap is widening suggesting that productivity is being driven by the most productive enterprises getting better, leaving the least productive behind...

REGULATORY POLICY AND OPTIMIZATION OF INVESTMENT RESOURCE ALLOCATION IN THE MODEL OF FUNCTIONING OF RECREATION INDUSTRY

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hanna Shevchenko

2017-11-01

Full Text Available The research objective is the rationale of the theoretical and methodical approach concerning the improvement of regulatory policy as well as the process of distribution of financial investments using the model of the functioning of a recreational sector of the national economy. The methodology of the study includes the use of optimal control theory for the model formation of the functioning of the recreational industry as well as determining the behaviour of regulatory authorities and capabilities to optimize the allocation of investment resources in the recreational sector of the national economy. Results. The issue of equilibration of regulatory policy in the recreational sector of the national economy is actualized, including the question of targeted distribution of state and external financial investments. Also, it is proved that regulatory policy should establish the frameworks that on the one hand, do not allow public authorities to exercise extra influence on the economy of recreation, on the other hand, to keep the behaviour of the recreational business entities within the limits of normal socio-economic activity – on the basis of analysis of the continuum “recreation – work” by means of modified Brennan-Buchanan model. It is revealed that even with the condition of the tax reduction, the situation when the population resting less and works more than in the background of a developed economy is observed. However, according to the optimistic forecast, eventually on condition when the economy is emerging from the shade, we will obtain an official mode of the work in which, while maintaining taxes on proposed more advantageous for the population level, ultimately the ratio leisure and work will be established which is corresponding to the principles of sustainable development. Practical value. On the basis of methodical principles of the theory of optimal control, the model of the functioning of the recreational industry under the

Principles for the formation of an effective concept of multifunctional high-rise construction investment projects

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Beliakov Sergei

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Investment projects of high-rise construction have a number of features that determine specific risks and additional opportunities that require analysis and accounting in the formation of an effective project concept. The most significant features of high-rise construction include long construction time, complexity of technical and technological solutions, complexity of decisions on the organization of construction and operation, high cost of construction and operation, complexity in determining the ratio of areas designed to accommodate different functional areas, when organizing and coordinating the operation of the facility, with internal zoning. Taking into account the specificity of high-rise construction, among the factors determining the effectiveness of projects, it is advisable to consider as key factors: organizational, technological and investment factors. Within the framework of the article, the author singled out key particular functions for each group of factors under consideration, and also developed a system of principles for the formation of an effective concept of multifunctional high-rise construction investment projects, including the principle of logistic efficiency, the principle of optimal functional zoning, the principle of efficiency of equipment use, the principle of optimizing technological processes, the principle maximization of income, the principle of fund management, the principle of risk management . The model of formation of an effective concept of investment projects of multifunctional high-rise construction developed by the author can contribute to the development of methodological tools in the field of managing the implementation of high-rise construction projects, taking into account their specificity in the current economic conditions.

Principles for the formation of an effective concept of multifunctional high-rise construction investment projects

Science.gov (United States)

Beliakov, Sergei

2018-03-01

Investment projects of high-rise construction have a number of features that determine specific risks and additional opportunities that require analysis and accounting in the formation of an effective project concept. The most significant features of high-rise construction include long construction time, complexity of technical and technological solutions, complexity of decisions on the organization of construction and operation, high cost of construction and operation, complexity in determining the ratio of areas designed to accommodate different functional areas, when organizing and coordinating the operation of the facility, with internal zoning. Taking into account the specificity of high-rise construction, among the factors determining the effectiveness of projects, it is advisable to consider as key factors: organizational, technological and investment factors. Within the framework of the article, the author singled out key particular functions for each group of factors under consideration, and also developed a system of principles for the formation of an effective concept of multifunctional high-rise construction investment projects, including the principle of logistic efficiency, the principle of optimal functional zoning, the principle of efficiency of equipment use, the principle of optimizing technological processes, the principle maximization of income, the principle of fund management, the principle of risk management . The model of formation of an effective concept of investment projects of multifunctional high-rise construction developed by the author can contribute to the development of methodological tools in the field of managing the implementation of high-rise construction projects, taking into account their specificity in the current economic conditions.

Guide for developing an information technology investment road map for population health management.

Science.gov (United States)

Hunt, Jacquelyn S; Gibson, Richard F; Whittington, John; Powell, Kitty; Wozney, Brad; Knudson, Susan

2015-06-01

Many health systems recovering from a massive investment in electronic health records are now faced with the prospect of maturing into accountable care organizations. This maturation includes the need to cooperate with new partners, involve substantially new data sources, require investment in additional information technology (IT) solutions, and become proficient in managing care from a new perspective. Adding to the confusion, there are hundreds of population health management (PHM) vendors with overlapping product functions. This article proposes an organized approach to investing in PHM IT. The steps include assessing the organization's business and clinical goals, establishing governance, agreeing on business requirements, evaluating the ability of current IT systems to meet those requirements, setting time lines and budgets, rationalizing current and future needs and capabilities, and installing the new systems in the context of a continuously learning organization. This article will help organizations chart their position on the population health readiness spectrum and enhance their chances for a successful transition from volume-based to value-based care.

How to manage future groundwater resource of China under climate change and urbanization: An optimal stage investment design from modern portfolio theory.

Science.gov (United States)

Hua, Shanshan; Liang, Jie; Zeng, Guangming; Xu, Min; Zhang, Chang; Yuan, Yujie; Li, Xiaodong; Li, Ping; Liu, Jiayu; Huang, Lu

2015-11-15

Groundwater management in China has been facing challenges from both climate change and urbanization and is considered as a national priority nowadays. However, unprecedented uncertainty exists in future scenarios making it difficult to formulate management planning paradigms. In this paper, we apply modern portfolio theory (MPT) to formulate an optimal stage investment of groundwater contamination remediation in China. This approach generates optimal weights of investment to each stage of the groundwater management and helps maximize expected return while minimizing overall risk in the future. We find that the efficient frontier of investment displays an upward-sloping shape in risk-return space. The expected value of groundwater vulnerability index increases from 0.6118 to 0.6230 following with the risk of uncertainty increased from 0.0118 to 0.0297. If management investment is constrained not to exceed certain total cost until 2050 year, the efficient frontier could help decision makers make the most appropriate choice on the trade-off between risk and return. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Mediating Effect of Innovation on the Relationship between Information Technology Investments and Firm Performance: An Empirical Study

Science.gov (United States)

Karanja, Erastus

2011-01-01

The last couple of decades has witnessed a plethora of research studies addressing the cause-and-effect relationship between Information Technology (IT) investments and performance at the firm level. These studies elicited mixed results between IT investments and performance which led to various points of view from IT Scholars and Practitioners.…

Power sector investment risk and renewable energy: A Japanese case study using portfolio risk optimization method

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bhattacharya, Anindya; Kojima, Satoshi

2012-01-01

The conventional pricing mechanism used for electricity systematically hides huge investment risks which are embedded in the overall cost of production. Although consumers are often unaware of these risks, they present a large financial burden on the economy. This study applies the portfolio optimization concepts from the field of finance to demonstrate the scope of greater utilization of renewable energies (RE) while reducing the embedded investment risk in the conventional electricity sector and its related financial burden. This study demonstrates that RE investment can compensate for the risks associated with the total input costs; such costs being external volatilities of fossil fuel prices, capital costs, operating and maintenance costs and the carbon costs. By means of example, this case study shows that Japan could in theory obtain up to 9% of its electricity supply from green sources, as compared to the present 1.37%, based on the utilization of a portfolio risk-analysis evaluation. Explicit comparison of the monetary values of the investment risks of conventional and renewable energy sources shows that renewable energies have high market competitiveness. The study concludes with a recommendation that, as a business objective, investors would benefit by focusing on electricity supply portfolio risk minimization instead of cost. This could also inherently increase the supply of renewable energy in the market. - Research highlights: ►Energy sector investors should not be bothered only about the absolute cost figures of the input factors like fossil fuels but should also be careful about the fluctuation of their costs while making the investment decisions. ►Inclusion of renewable energy in the investment portfolio can increase the cost apparently but can reduce the risk hedging costs, too. ►International carbon price may not be a good factor to encourage renewable energy investment in the market.

Work environment investments: outcomes from three cases.

Science.gov (United States)

Rydell, Alexis; Andersson, Ing-Marie

2017-09-27

Work environment investments are important in order to create a healthy and safe workplace. This article presents findings from a seven-step interventions process aimed at examining and following-up work environment investments in small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), with a particular focus on air contaminants. Three different cases were analyzed and included in the study: (a) an educational center for welding; (b) a paint station in furniture manufacturing; (c) a joinery in furniture manufacturing. The results show that the work environment investments were highly appreciated by the employees and managers, but at the same time the investment could be optimized through markedly decreased exposure levels for the worker. Factors such as follow-ups of the investment, education and training in how to use the equipment, worker involvement in the process and leadership engagement are important in order to optimize work environment investments.

Investment in Renewable Energies in Argentina

OpenAIRE

Marina Recalde

2017-01-01

This article analyzes how the enabling conditions of the energy policy of a developing country such as Argentina, are crucial for the deployment of renewable energy investments. The conclusions highlights that the low institutional quality of the country shapes enabling conditions and reduce effect of the instruments of the energy policy, dropping incentives for investment in renewable technologies in the country. Therefore, in order to promote renewable technologies investments efficiently, ...

Electricity investments and nuclear development: investment choice modeling based on value creation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tehrani, B.S.; Bocquer, J.C.; Tomoda, T.

2014-01-01

While nuclear power may experience a technological breakthrough in Europe with Generation IV nuclear reactors within 2040, several events could question this possibility such as the Fukushima accident, the climate issues and the electricity market liberalization. This paper aims at analyzing investment choices in power generation capacities in the European scope, using simple DSM-inspired approaches. The power company and interacting stake holders in the investment choice process are considered as a complex system, and dependencies between investment drivers associated with each stake holder are studied. Focusing on the value for the power company, the compatibility of each power company with each of considered technologies is assessed through a Domain Mapping Matrix, including not only technical drivers, but also associated policy and market drivers. Technology preferences are modeled for main European companies in a set of scenarios, these preferences being then used to explore trends in generation mix. (authors)

Encouraging private sector investment in climatefriendly technologies in developing countries. An assessment of policy options for the Dutch government

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Van Rooijen, S.N.M.; Van Wees, M.T.

2006-10-01

This study aims to explore new or reformed policies to be adopted by the Dutch government to encourage private sector investments in climate-friendly technologies in developing countries. A literature review of barriers to climate-friendly investments and of directions for solutions has been complemented with a number of in-depth interviews with stakeholders representing the major actors involved in investment projects (project sponsors, financing institutions, institutional investors and government). The barrier analysis has resulted in the following list of key obstacles to climate-friendly investments: (1) Lack of a sound, transparent and stable enabling environment for investing in developing countries; (2) Shortage of experienced and creditworthy sponsors; (3) High specific project risks; (4) Overestimation investment risks related to (sustainable) investments in developing countries in general (risk perspective); (5) Additional costs of climate-friendly technologies; (6) Shortage of risk capital; (7) Insufficient guarantee mechanisms; (8) Lack of know-how on public-private partnership structures and on financial design; and (9) Lack of insight how corporate social responsibility can be operationalised. Four main gaps have been identified on the basis of an assessment of current Dutch policies and instruments: (1) Shortage of instruments to directly promote investments; (2) Underdeveloped guarantee instruments; (3) Too restrictive cap on project size in financial schemes; (4) Lack of support in operationalising the concept of corporate social responsibility. Four areas for new or intensified policies have been identified based on the barrier and gap analysis: (1) Direct promotion of (potentially large scale) investments, including: (a) Supporting (the establishment of) sponsor companies developing sustainable energy projects in developing countries; (b) Making risk capital available; (c) Creating investment credit facilities; (d) Making development capital in

Investing in biogas: Timing, technological choice and the value of flexibility from input mix

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Di Corato, Luca; Moretto, Michele

2011-01-01

In a stochastic dynamic frame, we study the technology choice problem of a continuous co-digestion biogas plant where input factors are substitutes but need to be mixed together to provide output. Given any initial rule for the composition of the feedstock, we consider the possibility of revising it if economic circumstances make it profitable. Flexibility in the mix is an advantage under randomly fluctuating input costs and comes at a higher investment cost. We show that the degree of flexibility in the productive technology installed depends on the value of the option to profitably re-arrange the input mix. Such option adds value to the project in that it provides a device for hedging against fluctuations in the input relative convenience. Accounting for such value we discuss the trade-off between investment timing and profit smoothing flexibility. - Research highlights: ► We study the technology choice problem of a continuous co-digestion biogas plant where input factors are substitutes but need to be mixed together to provide output. ► We show that the degree of flexibility in the productive technology installed depends on the value of the option to profitably re-arrange the input mix. ► Such option adds value to the project in that it provides a device for hedging against fluctuations in the input relative convenience.

Combination of real options and game-theoretic approach in investment analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Arasteh, Abdollah

2016-09-01

Investments in technology create a large amount of capital investments by major companies. Assessing such investment projects is identified as critical to the efficient assignment of resources. Viewing investment projects as real options, this paper expands a method for assessing technology investment decisions in the linkage existence of uncertainty and competition. It combines the game-theoretic models of strategic market interactions with a real options approach. Several key characteristics underlie the model. First, our study shows how investment strategies rely on competitive interactions. Under the force of competition, firms hurry to exercise their options early. The resulting "hurry equilibrium" destroys the option value of waiting and involves violent investment behavior. Second, we get best investment policies and critical investment entrances. This suggests that integrating will be unavoidable in some information product markets. The model creates some new intuitions into the forces that shape market behavior as noticed in the information technology industry. It can be used to specify best investment policies for technology innovations and adoptions, multistage R&D, and investment projects in information technology.

Uncertain R and D, backstop technology and GHGs stabilization

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bosetti, Valentina; Tavoni, Massimo

2009-01-01

This paper analyses optimal investments in innovation when dealing with a stringent climate target and with the uncertain effectiveness of R and D. The innovation needed to achieve the deep cut in emissions is modeled by a backstop carbon-free technology whose cost depends on R and D investments. To better represent the process of technological progress, we assume that R and D effectiveness is uncertain. By means of a simple analytical model, we show how accounting for the uncertainty that characterizes technological advancement yields higher investments in innovation and lower policy costs. We then confirm the results via a numerical analysis performed with a stochastic version of WITCH, an energy-economy-climate model. The results stress the importance of a correct specification of the technological change process in economy-climate models. (author)

Communication strategies to optimize commitments and investments in iron programming.

Science.gov (United States)

Griffiths, Marcia

2002-04-01

There is consensus that a communications component is crucial to the success of iron supplementation and fortification programs. However, in many instances, we have not applied what we know about successful advocacy and program communications to iron programs. Communication must play a larger and more central role in iron programs to overcome several common shortcomings and allow the use of new commitments and investments in iron programming to optimum advantage. One shortcoming is that iron program communication has been driven primarily by the supply side of the supply-demand continuum. That is, technical information has been given without thought for what people want to know or do. To overcome this, the communication component, which should be responsive to the consumer perspective, must be considered at program inception, not enlisted late in the program cycle as a remedy when interventions fail to reach their targets. Another shortcoming is the lack of program focus on behavior. Because the "technology" of iron, a supplement, or fortified or specific local food must be combined with appropriate consumer behavior, it is not enough to promote the technology. The appropriate use of technology must be ensured, and this requires precise and strategically crafted communications. A small number of projects from countries as diverse as Indonesia, Egypt, Nicaragua and Peru offer examples of successful communications efforts and strategies for adaptation by other countries.

Concentrating solar power plant investment and operation decisions under different price and support mechanisms

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kost, Christoph; Flath, Christoph M.; Möst, Dominik

2013-01-01

The dispatch opportunities provided by storage-enhanced Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) plants have direct implications on the investment decisions as not only nameplate capacity but also the storage capacity and the solar multiple play a crucial role for the viability of the plant investment. By integrating additional technical aspects and operation strategies, this paper extends the optimization model proposed by Madaeni et al., How Thermal Energy Storage Enhances the Economic Viability of Concentrating Solar Power. Using a mixed integer maximization approach the paper yields both the optimal layout decision and the operation of CSP plants. Subsequently, the economic value of CSP storage is analyzed via energy modeling of a Spanish plant location under the respective wholesale market prices as well as the local feed-in tariff. The analysis shows that investment incentives for CSP plants with storage need to appropriately account for the interdependency between the price incentives and the plant operating strategy. As the resulting revenue characteristics influence the optimal size of solar field and storage differing operating strategies also give rise to differing optimal plant layouts. Most noteworthy, the current Spanish support scheme offers only limited incentives for larger thermal storage capacity. - Highlights: • Dispatch opportunities of CSP have direct implications on both investment and operational decisions. • Valuation approach with a single mixed integer maximization problem. • Profitability of CSP plants under the premium feed-in tariff in Spain was assessed. • Layout decision and storage size are influenced by remuneration scheme. • Discuss alternative remuneration schemes for “dispatchable” RE technologies

Analysis of stage-investing strategy in equity financing market

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

XUN Minghui

2007-01-01

Stage-investing strategy is a primary measure to mitigate asymmetric information during equity investment. This paper attempts to investigate the problem faced by equity investors wishing to make optimal investment decision under stage-investing strategy.A serial investment-decision making model will be designed to help investors to take the best choice.

CEO emotional bias and investment decision, Bayesian network method

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jarboui Anis

2012-08-01

Full Text Available This research examines the determinants of firms’ investment introducing a behavioral perspective that has received little attention in corporate finance literature. The following central hypothesis emerges from a set of recently developed theories: Investment decisions are influenced not only by their fundamentals but also depend on some other factors. One factor is the biasness of any CEO to their investment, biasness depends on the cognition and emotions, because some leaders use them as heuristic for the investment decision instead of fundamentals. This paper shows how CEO emotional bias (optimism, loss aversion and overconfidence affects the investment decisions. The proposed model of this paper uses Bayesian Network Method to examine this relationship. Emotional bias has been measured by means of a questionnaire comprising several items. As for the selected sample, it has been composed of some 100 Tunisian executives. Our results have revealed that the behavioral analysis of investment decision implies leader affected by behavioral biases (optimism, loss aversion, and overconfidence adjusts its investment choices based on their ability to assess alternatives (optimism and overconfidence and risk perception (loss aversion to create of shareholder value and ensure its place at the head of the management team.

Investment in Renewable Energies in Argentina

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marina Recalde

2017-05-01

Full Text Available This article analyzes how the enabling conditions of the energy policy of a developing country such as Argentina, are crucial for the deployment of renewable energy investments. The conclusions highlights that the low institutional quality of the country shapes enabling conditions and reduce effect of the instruments of the energy policy, dropping incentives for investment in renewable technologies in the country. Therefore, in order to promote renewable technologies investments efficiently, the institutional framework of countries must be seriously improved.

NASA Program Office Technology Investments to Enable Future Missions

Science.gov (United States)

Thronson, Harley; Pham, Thai; Ganel, Opher

2018-01-01

The Cosmic Origins (COR) and Physics of the Cosmos (PCOS) Program Offices (POs) reside at NASA GSFC and implement priorities for the NASA HQ Astrophysics Division (APD). One major aspect of the POs’ activities is managing our Strategic Astrophysics Technology (SAT) program to mature technologies for future strategic missions. The Programs follow APD guidance on which missions are strategic, currently informed by the NRC’s 2010 Decadal Survey report, as well as APD’s Implementation Plan and the Astrophysics Roadmap.In preparation for the upcoming 2020 Decadal Survey, the APD has established Science and Technology Definition Teams (STDTs) to study four large-mission concepts: the Origins Space Telescope (née, Far-IR Surveyor), Habitable Exoplanet Imaging Mission, Large UV/Optical/IR Surveyor, and Lynx (née, X-ray Surveyor). The STDTs will develop the science case and design reference mission, assess technology development needs, and estimate the cost of their concept. A fifth team, the L3 Study Team (L3ST), was charged to study potential US contributions to ESA’s planned Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) gravitational-wave observatory.The POs use a rigorous and transparent process to solicit technology gaps from the scientific and technical communities, and prioritize those entries based on strategic alignment, expected impact, cross-cutting applicability, and urgency. For the past two years, the technology-gap assessments of the four STDTs and the L3ST are included in our process. Until a study team submits its final report, community-proposed changes to gaps submitted or adopted by a study team are forwarded to that study team for consideration.We discuss our technology development process, with strategic prioritization informing calls for SAT proposals and informing investment decisions. We also present results of the 2017 technology gap prioritization and showcase our current portfolio of technology development projects. To date, 96 COR and 86

Maintaining a system subject to uncertain technological evolution

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nguyen, T.P.K.; Castanier, Bruno; Yeung, Thomas G.

2014-01-01

Maintenance decisions can be directly affected by the introduction of a new asset on the market, especially when the new asset technology could increase the expected profit. However new technology has a high degree of uncertainty that must be considered such as, e.g., its appearance time on the market, the expected revenue and the purchase cost. In this way, maintenance optimization can be seen as an investment problem where the repair decision is an option for postponing a replacement decision in order to wait for a potential new asset. Technology investment decisions are usually based primarily on strategic parameters such as current probability and expected future benefits while maintenance decisions are based on “functional” parameters such as deterioration levels of the current system and associated maintenance costs. In this paper, we formulate a new combined mathematical optimization framework for taking into account both maintenance and replacement decisions when the new asset is subject to technological improvement. The decision problem is modelled as a non-stationary Markov decision process. Structural properties of the optimal policy and forecast horizon length are then derived in order to guarantee decision optimality and robustness over the infinite horizon. Finally, the performance of our model is highlighted through numerical examples

Understanding Information Technology Investment Decision-Making in the Context of Hotel Global Distribution Systems: a Multiple-Case Study

OpenAIRE

Connolly, Daniel J.

1999-01-01

UNDERSTANDING INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY INVESTMENT DECISION-MAKING IN THE CONTEXT OF HOTEL GLOBAL DISTRIBUTION SYSTEMS: A MULTIPLE-CASE STUDY by Daniel J. Connolly Dr. Michael D. Olsen, Chair Department of Hospitality and Tourism Management ABSTRACT This study investigates what three large, multinational hospitality companies do in practice when evaluating and making IT investment decisions. This study was launched in an attempt to 1) learn more about ...

A methodological model to assist in the optimization and risk management of mining investment decisions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Botin, Jose A; Guzman, Ronald R; Smith, Martin L

2011-01-01

Identifying, quantifying, and minimizing technical risks associated with investment decisions is a key challenge for mineral industry decision makers and investors. However, risk analysis in most bankable mine feasibility studies are based on the stochastic modeling of project N et Present Value (NPV)which, in most cases, fails to provide decision makers with a truly comprehensive analysis of risks associated with technical and management uncertainty and, as a result, are of little use for risk management and project optimization. This paper presents a value-chain risk management approach where project risk is evaluated for each step of the project life cycle, from exploration to mine closure, and risk management is performed as a part of a stepwise value-added optimization process.

Quantitative Model for Economic Analyses of Information Security Investment in an Enterprise Information System

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bojanc Rok

2012-11-01

Full Text Available The paper presents a mathematical model for the optimal security-technology investment evaluation and decision-making processes based on the quantitative analysis of security risks and digital asset assessments in an enterprise. The model makes use of the quantitative analysis of different security measures that counteract individual risks by identifying the information system processes in an enterprise and the potential threats. The model comprises the target security levels for all identified business processes and the probability of a security accident together with the possible loss the enterprise may suffer. The selection of security technology is based on the efficiency of selected security measures. Economic metrics are applied for the efficiency assessment and comparative analysis of different protection technologies. Unlike the existing models for evaluation of the security investment, the proposed model allows direct comparison and quantitative assessment of different security measures. The model allows deep analyses and computations providing quantitative assessments of different options for investments, which translate into recommendations facilitating the selection of the best solution and the decision-making thereof. The model was tested using empirical examples with data from real business environment.

GROWTH AND VENTURE CAPITAL INVESTMENT IN TECHNOLOGY-BASED SMALL FIRMS THE CASE OF HUNGARY

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Becsky Nagy Patricia

2014-07-01

Full Text Available Venture capital backed enterprises represent a low proportion of companies, even of innovative ones. The research question was, whether these companies have an important role in innovation and economic growth in Hungary compared to other countries. In the first part of the article I present the theoretical background of technology-based small firms, highlighting the most important models and theories of the economic impact and the special development of innovative technology-oriented small firms. In the second part of the article I present the status of the most important indicators of innovation in connection with entrepreneurship, than I elaborate on the measures of start-ups, mainly the high-tech ones with high-growth potential. I describe the current position of venture capital industry, detailing the venture capital investments, with particular emphasis on classical venture capital investments that points out the number and the amount of venture capital investments financing early stage firms with high-growth potential. At the end I summarize the status of Hungarian technology-based small firms and their possibilities to get financial sources form venture capital investors, with regards to the status and the prospects of the JEREMIE program. In Hungary the number of internationally competitive firms, ready and willing to obtain venture capital, is much lower than in the US or Western European countries. Hungary could take advantage of its competitive edges in some special fields of innovation. The efficiency of information flow would reduce the information gap between the demand and the supply side of the venture capital market and more Hungarian firms could be internationally successful through venture capital financing. The recent years’ policy and special programs like JEREMIE generated more transactions, that helped to inform the entrepreneurs about venture capital and helped to co-invest public resources with private equity more

Biomass Power Generation Investment in China: A Real Options Evaluation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mingming Zhang

2016-06-01

Full Text Available This paper proposes a real options model for evaluating the biomass power generation investment in China. The uncertainties in the market price of electricity, CO2 price and straw price are considered. Meanwhile the dynamic relationship between installed capacity and fuel cost, as well as the long-term reduction of subsidy are described. Two scenarios, i.e., with the carbon emission trading scheme existent and non-existent, respectively, is built to empirically analyze the investment of a 25-MW straw-based power generation project. The results show that investors should undertake the investment in 2030 under two scenarios. Investment values are 14,869,254.8 and 37,608,727 Chinese Yuan (RMB, respectively. The implementation of the carbon emission trading scheme theoretically helps improve investment value and advance the most likely optimal investment time. However, the current CO2 price is not sufficient to advance the most likely optimal investment time. The impacts of several factors, including subsidy policy, CO2 price, straw price, installed capacity, correlation structure and the validity period of investment, on the optimal investment strategy are also examined. It is suggested that governments take some measures, including increasing subsidy, setting the growth pattern of subsidy and establishing and perfecting a nationwide carbon trading market, to improve the investment environment and attract more investments.

Liability-driven investment in longevity risk management

OpenAIRE

Helena Aro; Teemu Pennanen

2013-01-01

This paper studies optimal investment from the point of view of an investor with longevity-linked liabilities. The relevant optimization problems rarely are analytically tractable, but we are able to show numerically that liability driven investment can significantly outperform common strategies that do not take the liabilities into account. In problems without liabilities the advantage disappears, which suggests that the superiority of the proposed strategies is indeed based on connections b...

Wright meets Markowitz: How standard portfolio theory changes when assets are technologies following experience curves

OpenAIRE

Way, Rupert; Lafond, François; Farmer, J. Doyne; Lillo, Fabrizio; Panchenko, Valentyn

2017-01-01

This paper considers how to optimally allocate investments in a portfolio of competing technologies. We introduce a simple model representing the underlying trade-off - between investing enough effort in any one project to spur rapid progress, and diversifying effort over many projects simultaneously to hedge against failure. We use stochastic experience curves to model the idea that investing more in a technology reduces its unit costs, and we use a mean-variance objective function to unders...

A Global Optimizing Policy for Decaying Items with Ramp-Type Demand Rate under Two-Level Trade Credit Financing Taking Account of Preservation Technology

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. R. Singh

2013-01-01

Full Text Available An inventory system for deteriorating items, with ramp-type demand rate, under two-level trade credit policy taking account of preservation technology is considered. The objective of this study is to develop a deteriorating inventory policy when the supplier provides to the retailer a permissible delay in payments, and during this credit period, the retailer accumulates the revenue and earns interest on that revenue; also the retailer invests on the preservation technology to reduce the rate of product deterioration. Shortages are allowed and partially backlogged. Sufficient conditions of the existence and uniqueness of the optimal replenishment policy are provided, and an algorithm, for its determination, is proposed. Numerical examples draw attention to the obtained results, and the sensitivity analysis of the optimal solution with respect to leading parameters of the system is carried out.

The impact of DOE building technology energy efficiency programs on U.S. employment, income, and investment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Scott, Michael J.; Roop, Joseph M.; Schultz, Robert W.; Anderson, David M.; Cort, Katherine A.

2008-01-01

The U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) analyzes the macroeconomic impacts of its programs that are designed to increase the energy efficiency of the U.S. residential and commercial building stock. The analysis is conducted using the Impact of Sector Energy Technologies (ImSET) model, a special-purpose 188-sector input-output model of the U.S. economy designed specifically to evaluate the impacts of energy efficiency investments and saving. For the analysis described in the paper, ImSET was amended to provide estimates of sector-by-sector capital requirements and investment. In the scenario of the Fiscal Year (FY) 2005 Building Technologies (BT) program, the technologies and building practices being developed and promoted by the BT program have the potential to save about 2.9 x 10 15 Btu in buildings by the year 2030, about 27% of the expected growth in building energy consumption by the year 2030. The analysis reported in the paper finds that, by the year 2030, these savings have the potential to increase employment by up to 446,000 jobs, increase wage income by $7.8 billion, reduce needs for capital stock in the energy sector and closely related supporting industries by about $207 billion (and the corresponding annual level of investment by $13 billion), and create net capital savings that are available to grow the nation's future economy

Power plants investment decision-making in consideration of investment risk

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Oda, Junichiro; Matsuhashi, Ryuji; Yoshida, Yoshikuni; Takashima, Ryuta

2005-01-01

In this paper, we consider the investment risk of nuclear power plants using the real options approach. It is essential that the Japanese society evaluate the investment risk, because nuclear power plants are facing definite uncertainty and Japanese governments intend to promote and assist nuclear power plants through subsidies and policy actions. We assumed that the wholesale market prices of electricity constitute the definite uncertainty and that the wholesale market prices follow the geometric Brownian motion with drift. Using the Bellman equation and a lattice framework, we evaluated the value of investment opportunity, the value of equipment, and the critical prices that are optimal prices to invest in a nuclear power plant in the finite time horizon. This analysis shows that higher volatility of the wholesale market prices would give power companies lower incentive to construct electric power plants, particularly capital-intensive power plants. In order to deliberate and hold the Japanese governments accountable for the economics of nuclear power plants, multifaceted evaluation is needed. (author)

THE ECONOMIC SUBSTANCE OF ACCOUNTING FOR FINANCIAL INVESTMENT AND THE PROSPECT OF USING “BLOCKCHAIN” TO CONTROL INVESTMENT ACTIVITY IN UKRAINE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alina Lytvynenko

2018-03-01

Full Text Available The subject matter of the research is the financial investment and the application of innovative technologies to improve accounting in the context of investment management as one of the most important components of economic development. The goal is to study the methodology of reflecting financial investments of domestic enterprises. The objectives are to improve accounting of financial investments in the enterprise, to research the development prospects of accounting by introducing innovative technologies through the disclosure of theoretical aspects of research and the estimation of practical aspects of the study, the possibility of using the technology of blockchain in Ukraine to improve the financial reporting taking into account the experience of international partners (foreign countries. The methods used are system analysis and structural analysis. The following results are obtained. The state of investment accounting was analyzed and the prospects of using blockchain technology for improving auditing efficiency, increasing the transparency of financial investments and for counteracting corruption were found. Conclusions. During the analysis of the cause and effect relations of using innovative technologies in accounting, the immaturity of the existing accounting methodology was shown; this immaturity specifies incompleteness, the decline in the adequacy of accounting data in accordance with the realities of investment processes and the development of the industry as a whole. The use of blockchain technology enables restructuring the processes of accounting and their automation and increases the level of transparency of information disclosure by enterprises. Using blockchain for auditing becomes a unique solution as auditing affects all industries and is the foundation that helps global financial markets gain investor confidence. Taking into account the economic problems of Ukraine, the use of blockchain technology will help solve the

The impact of future carbon prices on CCS investment for power generation in China

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wu, Ning; Parsons, John E.; Polenske, Karen R.

2013-01-01

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) in China is currently discussed extensively but few in-depth analyses focusing on economics are observed. In this study, we answer two related questions about the development of CCS and power generation technologies in China: (1) what is the breakeven carbon-dioxide price to justify CCS installation investment for Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle (IGCC) and pulverized coal (PC) power plants, and, (2) what are the risks associated with investment for CCS. To answer these questions, we build a net present value model for IGCC and PC plants with capacity of 600 MW, with assumptions best representing the current technologies in China. Then, we run a sensitivity analysis of capital costs and fuel costs to reveal their impact on the carbon price, and analyze the risk on investment return caused by the carbon price volatility. Our study shows that in China, a breakeven carbon price of $61/tonne is required to justify investment on CCS for PC plants, and $72/tonne for IGCC plants. In this analysis, we also advise investors on the impact of capital and fuel costs on the carbon price and suggest optimal timing for CCS investment. - Highlights: ► We collect data on CCS and power generation which best represents technologies and costs in China. ► We model power plants' net present value to find the breakeven carbon prices. ► IGCC needs $72 per tonne to breakeven while PC requires $61 in China. ► Capital and fuel costs impact the carbon prices noticeably. ► We also examine the sensitivity, impact on return and time for investment

The Baetylus Theorem?the central disconnect driving consumer behavior and investment returns in Wearable Technologies

OpenAIRE

Levine, James A.

2016-01-01

The Wearable Technology market may increase fivefold by the end of the decade. There is almost no academic investigation as to what drives the investment hypothesis in wearable technologies. This paper seeks to examine this issue from an evidence-based perspective. There is a fundamental disconnect in how consumers view wearable sensors and how companies market them; this is called The Baetylus Theorem where people believe (falsely) that by buying a wearable sensor they will receive health be...

Optimal pricing and investment in the electricity sector in Tamil Nadu, India

Science.gov (United States)

Murthy, Ranganath Srinivas

2001-07-01

Faulty pricing policies and inadequate investment in the power sector are responsible for the chronic power shortages that plague Tamil Nadu and the rest of India. Formulae for optimal pricing rules are derived for a social welfare maximizing Electricity Board which sells electricity that is used both as an intermediate, and as a final good. Because of distributional constraints, the optimal prices deviate systematically from marginal costs. Optimal relative price-marginal cost differentials are computed for Tamil Nadu, and are found to indicate a lower degree of subsidization than the prevailing prices. The rationalization of electricity tariffs would very likely increase the Board's revenues. The cost-effectiveness of nuclear power in India is examined by comparing actual data for the Madras Atomic Power Project and the Singrauli coal-fired thermal power station. The conventional (non-environmental) costs of power generation are compared at both market prices and shadow prices, calculated according to the UNIDO guidelines for project evaluation. Despite favorable assumptions for the costs of the nuclear plant, coal had a decided edge over nuclear in Tamil Nadu. Remarkably, the edge varied little when market prices are replaced by shadow prices in the computations. With regard to the environmental costs, far too much remains unknown. More research is therefore needed on the environmental impacts of both types of power generation before a final choice can be made.

Development and optimization of power plant concepts for local wet fuels

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Raiko, M.O.; Gronfors, T.H.A. [Fortum Energy Solutions, Fortum (Finland); Haukka, P. [Tampere University of Technology (Finland)

2003-01-01

Many changes in business drivers are now affecting power-producing companies. The power market has been opened up and the number of locally operating companies has increased. At the same time the need to utilize locally produced biofuels is increasing because of environmental benefits and regulations. In this situation, power-producing companies have on focus their in-house skills for generating a competitive edge over their rivals, such as the skills needed for developing the most economical energy investments for the best-paying customer for the local biomass producers. This paper explores the role of optimization in the development of small-sized energy investments. The paper provides an overview on a new design process for power companies for improved use of in-house technical and business expertise. As an example, illustrative design and optimization of local wet peat-based power investment is presented. Three concept alternatives are generated. Only power plant production capacity and peat moisture content are optimized for all alternatives. Long commercial experience of using peat as a power plant fuel in Finland can be transferred to bioenergy investments. In this paper, it is shown that conventional technology can be feasible for bioenergy production even in quite small size (below 10 MW). It is important to optimize simultaneously both the technology and the two businesses, power production and fuel production. Further, such high moisture content biomass as sludge, seaweed, grass, etc. can be economical fuels, if advanced drying systems are adopted in a power plant. (author)

RUSSIAN INDUSTRY INVESTMENT SITUATION

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

O. V. Pochukaeva

2011-01-01

Full Text Available The actual deficiency of investment into Russian industry innovative development increases its technological drag from industries of countries with developed markets. Although the rate of investment into real sectors of Russian economics mid 2000 was higher compared to the previous period, annual investment amounts were much lower than in 1990. At present, highest investment amounts are directed to industry extractive branches and to the commerce. Amounts invested to various economy branches do not correspond to their contribution to the country’sGross Added Product; particularly underinvested are manufacturing industry branches. At present, foreign share in the country economy total investment makes 15–18%. Recently, most interesting for foreigners was investment to machine-building branches with overwhelming part (for example, 90% in 2007–2008 of foreign investment into the machine-building industry being directed to creation of new automobile plants. Today, first place in the list of foreign investors’ preferences in Russia is taken by the machine-tool construction sector.

Multinational Taxation and R&D Investments

NARCIS (Netherlands)

de Waegenaere, A.; Sansing, R.C.; Wielhouwer, J.L.

2012-01-01

This study examines the effects of taxation on the incentives of multinational firms to develop and use intellectual property. We model optimal investment and production decisions by firms that engage in a patent race by making R&D investments. We investigate how taxes affect the level and

Multinational taxation and R&D investments

NARCIS (Netherlands)

De Waegenaere, A.M.B.; Sansing, R.; Wielhouwer, J.L.

2012-01-01

This study examines the effects of taxation on the incentives of multinational firms to develop and use intellectual property. We model optimal investment and production decisions by firms that engage in a patent race by making R&D investments. We investigate how taxes affect the level and

Optimal fossil-fuel taxation with backstop technologies and tenure risk

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Strand, Jon [World Bank, Development Economics Group, Washington DC 20433 (United States); Department of Economics, University of Oslo (Norway)

2010-03-15

The paper derives the global welfare-optimizing time path for a tax on fossil fuels causing a negative stock externality (climate change), under increasing marginal extraction cost, and in the presence of an unlimited backstop resource causing no externality. In a basic competitive case, the optimal tax equals the Pigou rate, equivalent to the present discounted value of marginal damage costs. We consider two separate types of tenure insecurity for resource owners, and their impact on the tax implementing the optimal policy. When insecure control is with respect to future ownership to the resource, competitive extraction is higher than otherwise, and the efficiency-implementing tax exceeds the Pigou rate. When tenure insecurity instead implies possible expropriation ('holdup') of investment in extraction capacity, it deters extraction, and the optimal tax is lower than the Pigou rate. (author)

Oscillating between Conservation and Investment: A Grounded Theory of Students’ Strategies for Optimizing Personal Resources

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Katja Hakel

2015-06-01

Full Text Available Students’ use of time and effort during their studies has been discussed exhaustively in mass media and educational research. In most cases, researchers try to give advice to teachers on how to get their students to become more active and engaged. The grounded theory presented in this article, however, challenges this approach by focusing on the students’ point of view. When interviewing students for this study, I soon realized that students only have a limited amount of time and effort at their disposal. Optimizing these personal resources emerged as their main concern. For the students, investing resources into one study activity always means having to reduce the amount of time and effort they can spend on other activities. They resolve their main concern by oscillating between conservation and investment strategies. Their decision regarding which type of strategy to use depends strongly on the students’ evaluation of their current situation.

Comparative Analysis of Investment Decision Models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ieva Kekytė

2017-06-01

Full Text Available Rapid development of financial markets resulted new challenges for both investors and investment issues. This increased demand for innovative, modern investment and portfolio management decisions adequate for market conditions. Financial market receives special attention, creating new models, includes financial risk management and investment decision support systems.Researchers recognize the need to deal with financial problems using models consistent with the reality and based on sophisticated quantitative analysis technique. Thus, role mathematical modeling in finance becomes important. This article deals with various investments decision-making models, which include forecasting, optimization, stochatic processes, artificial intelligence, etc., and become useful tools for investment decisions.

Complementary modelling approaches for analysing several effects of privatization on electricity investment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bunn, D.W.; Larsen, E.R.; Vlahos, K. (London Business School (United Kingdom))

1993-10-01

Through the impacts of higher required rates of return, debt, taxation changes and a new competitive structure for the industry, investment in electricity generating capacity has taken a shift to less capital-intensive technologies in the UK. This paper reports on the use of large-scale, long-term capacity planning models, of both an optimization and system dynamics nature, to reflect these separate factors, investigate their sensitivities and to generate future scenarios for the investment in the industry. Some new policy implications for the regulation of the industry become apparent, but the main focus of the paper is to develop some of the methodological changes required by the planning models to suit the privatized context. (Author)

Optimizing long-term investments for a sustainable development of the ASEAN power system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Huber, Matthias; Roger, Albert; Hamacher, Thomas

2015-01-01

The electricity consumption in the ASEAN (Association of East Asian Nations) region is one of the fastest growing in the world and will lead to a dramatic increase in greenhouse gas emissions in the next decades. A decarbonization of the region's electricity supply is thus a very important measure when taking action on global climate change. This paper defines cost-optimal pathways towards a sustainable power system in the region by employing linear optimization. The proposed model simultaneously optimizes the required capacities and the hourly operation of generation, transmission, and storage. The obtained results show that all different kinds of renewable sources will have to be utilized, while none of them should have a share of more than one third. The findings give reason for setting up an ASEAN power grid, as it enables the transportation of electricity from the best sites to load centers and leads to a balancing of the fluctuations from wind and solar generation. We suggest fostering a diversified extension of renewables and to elaborate on political and technical solutions that enable the build up an transnational supergrid. - Highlights: • Article presents an optimization model of the ASEAN power system with high temporal and spatial resolution. • Cost-optimal investment options for achieving a sustainable electricity system are explored. • All types of renewable energies have to be employed while none of them should provide more than one third of overall supply. • Large transcontinental transmission grids will be crucial for a cost-minimal decarbonization of the ASEAN electricity sector

A software system for oilfield facility investment minimization

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ding, Z.X.; Startzman, R.A.

1996-01-01

Minimizing investment in oilfield development is an important subject that has attracted a considerable amount of industry attention. One method to reduce investment involves the optimal placement and selection of production facilities. Because of the large amount of capital used in this process, saving a small percent of the total investment may represent a large monetary value. The literature reports algorithms using mathematical programming techniques that were designed to solve the proposed problem in a global optimal manner. Owing to the high-computational complexity and the lack of user-friendly interfaces for data entry and results display, mathematical programming techniques have not been given enough attention in practice. This paper describes an interactive, graphical software system that provides a global optimal solution to the problem of placement and selection of production facilities in oil-field development processes. This software system can be used as an investment minimization tool and a scenario-study simulator. The developed software system consists of five basic modules: (1) an interactive data-input unit, (2) a cost function generator, (3) an optimization unit, (4) a graphic-output display, and (5) a sensitivity-analysis unit

Decision-making model of generation technology under uncertainty based on real option theory

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ming, Zeng; Ping, Zhang; Shunkun, Yu; Ge, Zhang

2016-01-01

Highlights: • A decision-making model of generation technology investment is proposed. • The irreversible investment concept and real option theory is introduced. • Practical data was used to prove the validity of the model. • Impact of electricity and fuel price fluctuation on investment was analyzed. - Abstract: The introduction of market competition and the increased uncertainty factors makes the generators have to decide not only on whether to invest generation capacity or not but also on what kind of generation technology to choose. In this paper, a decision-making model of generation technology investment is proposed. The irreversible investment concept and real option theory is introduced as the fundamental of the model. In order to explain the decision-making process of generator’s investment, the decision-making optimization model was built considering two generation technologies, i.e., the heat-only system and the combined heat and power generation. Also, we discussed the theory deducing process, which explained how to eliminate the overrated economic potential caused by risk hazard, based on economic evaluation of both generation technologies. Finally, practical data from electricity market of Inner Mongolia was used to prove the validity of the model and the impact of uncertainties of electricity and fuel price fluctuation on investment was analyzed according to the simulated results.

Correlationally Assessing the Relationship of Information Technology Investments in Electronic Medical Records to Business Value

Science.gov (United States)

Richardson, Daniel J.

2009-01-01

The lag in information exchange and assimilation adoption experienced by modern primary care physicians in the conduct of evidence based medicine may be affecting health care system productivity and patient quality of care. Further, interest in whether or not information technology (IT) investments show an increase in business value has increased…

Investigation into How Managers Justify Investments in IT Infrastructure

Science.gov (United States)

Ibe, Richmond Ikechukwu

2012-01-01

Organization leaders are dependent on information technology for corporate productivity; however, senior managers have expressed concerns about insufficient benefits from information technology investments. The problem researched was to understand how midsized businesses justify investments in information technology infrastructure. The purpose of…

Essays in technology adoption and corporate finance

OpenAIRE

Patel, Pratish

2013-01-01

This dissertation consists of three chapters that concern technology adoption and corporate finance. The first chapter analyzes the optimal investment strategy of two firms confronted with the option to adopt a new technology. The second chapter analyzes the link between debt maturity and term spread. The third chapter analyzes the role of debt financing on skyscraper heights.

Foreign direct investment and technology spillovers in Mexico: 20 years of NAFTA

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Enrique Armas

2017-10-01

Full Text Available This article analyses the development of technology capabilities in the manufacturing sector of Mexico during the last two decades. It has been argued that the inclusion of Mexico in the North America Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA in 1994 would be enough to catch up with Canada and the United States. In this regard, trade liberalisation and foreign direct investment (FDI would have been two strategic tools to close the technology gap between Mexico and its commercial partners in North America. Yet, after twenty years of NAFTA, it has been demonstrated that many indigenous firms in Mexico must develop an absorptive capacity to benefit from FDI. This paper suggests that the debate on the Asian miracle in the 1990s could be an adequate theoretical framework to discuss technology development and industrialisation in the case of emerging economies. In fact, this debate reveals two alternative approaches to explain the development of technology capabilities: (i the accumulation view of growth, and (ii the assimilation view of growth. Therefore, the Asian miracle exemplifies how entrepreneurship, learning and a supporting innovation policy could be an adequate strategy to benefit from FDI and technology spillovers in the case of emerging economies.

The value from investments in health information technology at the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs.

Science.gov (United States)

Byrne, Colene M; Mercincavage, Lauren M; Pan, Eric C; Vincent, Adam G; Johnston, Douglas S; Middleton, Blackford

2010-04-01

We compare health information technology (IT) in the Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) to norms in the private sector, and we estimate the costs and benefits of selected VA health IT systems. The VA spent proportionately more on IT than the private health care sector spent, but it achieved higher levels of IT adoption and quality of care. The potential value of the VA's health IT investments is estimated at $3.09 billion in cumulative benefits net of investment costs. This study serves as a framework to inform efforts to measure and calculate the benefits of federal health IT stimulus programs.

Optimizing accelerator technology

CERN Multimedia

Katarina Anthony

2012-01-01

A new EU-funded research and training network, oPAC, is bringing together 22 universities, research centres and industry partners to optimize particle accelerator technology. CERN is one of the network’s main partners and will host 5 early-stage researchers in the BE department.   A diamond detector that will be used for novel beam diagnostics applications in the oPAC project based at CIVIDEC. (Image courtesy of CIVIDEC.) As one of the largest Marie Curie Initial Training Networks ever funded by the EU – to the tune of €6 million – oPAC extends well beyond the particle physics community. “Accelerator physics has become integral to research in almost every scientific discipline – be it biology and life science, medicine, geology and material science, or fundamental physics,” explains Carsten P. Welsch, oPAC co-ordinator based at the University of Liverpool. “By optimizing the operation of accelerators, all of these...

Model for optimization of plant investments in combined power and heat production systems

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jantunen, E.; Sinisalo, A.; Koskelainen, L.

1980-01-01

A mathematical model is developed for optimal dimensioning and timing the investments of power and heat production system in a community. The required electric power may be purchased by different production systems, such as: thermal power plants, gas turbines, diesel plants, etc. or by delivering all or part of it from a national power company. Also the required heat may be produced in many different ways in single-purpose or combined plants. The model assumes the extent of the heating system fixed, and it is not optimized. It is assumed that the same company is responsible for supplying both the power and heat for the community. It's aim is to allocate the existing capital in an optimal way, and the model may be used for facilitating the decision in such questions as: what kind of production capacity should be purchased in future; how high should the heat and power capacities be; and when should this additional capacity be available. The report also reviews the methods for forecasting the demand of power and heat and their fluctuation during the planning period. The solution of this large-scale non-linear optimization problem is searched via successive linearizations by using the Method of Approximate Programming (MAP). It was found that the solution method is very suitable for this kind of multivariable problems. The computing times with the Functional Mathematical Programmin System (FMPS) in Univac 1108 computer were quite reasonable.

The Impact Of The Foreign Direct Investment On Romania’s Economy

OpenAIRE

Mihaela Ioneci; Georgiana Mîndreci

2010-01-01

Foreign direct investment can be regarded as a factor out of the crisis of the Romanian economy. The relationship between the foreign direct investment and the gross domestic product is beneficial for the economy to the extent to which investment is directed towards innovation and new technologies. The virtuous circle diversity - change - technology needs investment to take effect. Microeconomic level investment completes the strategies and the investment decisions at macroeconomic level.

Allogeneic cell therapy bioprocess economics and optimization: single-use cell expansion technologies.

Science.gov (United States)

Simaria, Ana S; Hassan, Sally; Varadaraju, Hemanthram; Rowley, Jon; Warren, Kim; Vanek, Philip; Farid, Suzanne S

2014-01-01

For allogeneic cell therapies to reach their therapeutic potential, challenges related to achieving scalable and robust manufacturing processes will need to be addressed. A particular challenge is producing lot-sizes capable of meeting commercial demands of up to 10(9) cells/dose for large patient numbers due to the current limitations of expansion technologies. This article describes the application of a decisional tool to identify the most cost-effective expansion technologies for different scales of production as well as current gaps in the technology capabilities for allogeneic cell therapy manufacture. The tool integrates bioprocess economics with optimization to assess the economic competitiveness of planar and microcarrier-based cell expansion technologies. Visualization methods were used to identify the production scales where planar technologies will cease to be cost-effective and where microcarrier-based bioreactors become the only option. The tool outputs also predict that for the industry to be sustainable for high demand scenarios, significant increases will likely be needed in the performance capabilities of microcarrier-based systems. These data are presented using a technology S-curve as well as windows of operation to identify the combination of cell productivities and scale of single-use bioreactors required to meet future lot sizes. The modeling insights can be used to identify where future R&D investment should be focused to improve the performance of the most promising technologies so that they become a robust and scalable option that enables the cell therapy industry reach commercially relevant lot sizes. The tool outputs can facilitate decision-making very early on in development and be used to predict, and better manage, the risk of process changes needed as products proceed through the development pathway. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Gas-fired power plants: Investment timing, operating flexibility and CO2 capture

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fleten, Stein-Erik; Naesaekkaelae, Erkka

2010-01-01

We analyze investments in gas-fired power plants based on stochastic electricity and natural gas prices. A simple but realistic two-factor model is used for price processes, enabling analysis of the value of operating flexibility, the opportunity to abandon the capital equipment, as well as finding thresholds for energy prices for which it is optimal to enter into the investment. We develop a method to compute upper and lower bounds on plant values and investment threshold levels. Our case study uses representative power plant investment and operations data, and historical forward prices from well-functioning energy markets. We find that when the decision to build is considered, the abandonment option does not have significant value, whereas the operating flexibility and time-to-build option have significant effect on the building threshold. Furthermore, the joint value of the operating flexibility and the abandonment option is much smaller than the sum of their separate values, because both are options to shut down. The effects of emission costs on the value of installing CO 2 capture technology are also analyzed.

Life support technology investment strategies for flight programs: An application of decision analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Schlater, Nelson J.; Simonds, Charles H.; Ballin, Mark G.

1993-01-01

Applied research and technology development (R&TD) is often characterized by uncertainty, risk, and significant delays before tangible returns are obtained. Given the increased awareness of limitations in resources, effective R&TD today needs a method for up-front assessment of competing technologies to help guide technology investment decisions. Such an assessment approach must account for uncertainties in system performance parameters, mission requirements and architectures, and internal and external events influencing a development program. The methodology known as decision analysis has the potential to address these issues. It was evaluated by performing a case study assessment of alternative carbon dioxide removal technologies for NASA's proposed First Lunar Outpost program. An approach was developed that accounts for the uncertainties in each technology's cost and performance parameters as well as programmatic uncertainties such as mission architecture. Life cycle cost savings relative to a baseline, adjusted for the cost of money, was used as a figure of merit to evaluate each of the alternative carbon dioxide removal technology candidates. The methodology was found to provide a consistent decision-making strategy for development of new life support technology. The case study results provided insight that was not possible from more traditional analysis approaches.

Continuous nonlinear optimization for engineering applications in GAMS technology

CERN Document Server

Andrei, Neculai

2017-01-01

This book presents the theoretical details and computational performances of algorithms used for solving continuous nonlinear optimization applications imbedded in GAMS. Aimed toward scientists and graduate students who utilize optimization methods to model and solve problems in mathematical programming, operations research, business, engineering, and industry, this book enables readers with a background in nonlinear optimization and linear algebra to use GAMS technology to understand and utilize its important capabilities to optimize algorithms for modeling and solving complex, large-scale, continuous nonlinear optimization problems or applications. Beginning with an overview of constrained nonlinear optimization methods, this book moves on to illustrate key aspects of mathematical modeling through modeling technologies based on algebraically oriented modeling languages. Next, the main feature of GAMS, an algebraically oriented language that allows for high-level algebraic representation of mathematical opti...

Environmental investment funds. Investing into the future. Umweltfonds. Investieren in die Zukunft

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Homolka, W [Bayerische Hypotheken- und Wechsel-Bank AG, Muenchen (Germany)

1990-01-01

The book wants to show that ecologically oriented and socially responsible investment has so far been underrated as a criterion of choice for finance decisions. Environmental investment funds offer the chance to make important investments into the future and the development of new technologies and methods of production, provided the openness of their claim is appreciated which is to go for anything that will improve our environment. Such confidence in the positive forces of the market is adequately rewarded, as international examples show. Environmental investment funds are a form of finance management for far-sighted investors and who are committed to the environment. The author presents the bases of ethic-ecologically oriented fund investment, reports experience abroad, and gives a current overview of the situation, nationally and internationally, in this sector of the finance market. (orig./HSCH).

Titanium Aluminide Casting Technology Development

Science.gov (United States)

Bünck, Matthias; Stoyanov, Todor; Schievenbusch, Jan; Michels, Heiner; Gußfeld, Alexander

2017-12-01

Titanium aluminide alloys have been successfully introduced into civil aircraft engine technology in recent years, and a significant order volume increase is expected in the near future. Due to its beneficial buy-to-fly ratio, investment casting bears the highest potential for cost reduction of all competing production technologies for TiAl-LPTB. However, highest mechanical properties can be achieved by TiAl forging. In view of this, Access e.V. has developed technologies for the production of TiAl investment cast parts and TiAl die cast billets for forging purposes. While these parts meet the highest requirements, establishing series production and further optimizing resource and economic efficiency are present challenges. In order to meet these goals, Access has recently been certified according to aircraft standards, aiming at qualifying parts for production on technology readiness level 6. The present work gives an overview of the phases of development and certification.

Optimal investment with fixed refinancing costs

OpenAIRE

Jason G. Cummins; Ingmar Nyman

2001-01-01

Case studies show that corporate managers seek financial independence to avoid interference by outside financiers. We incorporate this financial xenophobia as a fixed cost in a simple dynamic model of financing and investment. To avoid refinancing in the future, the firm alters its behavior depending on the extent of its financial xenophobia and the realization of a revenue shock. With a sufficiently adverse shock, the firm holds no liquidity. Otherwise, the firm precautionarily saves and hol...

Optimal Investment by Financially Xenophobic Managers

OpenAIRE

Jason G. Cummins; Ingmar Nyman

2000-01-01

Case studies show that corporate managers seek financial independence to avoid interference by outside financiers. We incorporate this financial xenophobia as a fixed cost in a simple dynamic model of financing and investment. To avoid refinancing in the future, the firm alters its behavior depending on the extent of its financial xenophobia and the realization of a revenue shock. With a sufficiently adverse shock, the firm holds no liquidity. Otherwise, the firm precautionarily saves and hol...

Investment Timing, Liquidity, and Agency Costs of Debt

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hirth, Stefan; Uhrig-Homburg, Marliese

2010-01-01

This paper examines the effect of debt and liquidity on corporate investment in a continuous-time framework. We show that stockholder-bondholder agency conflicts cause investment thresholds to be U-shaped in leverage and decreasing in liquidity. In the absence of tax effects, we derive the optimal...... level of liquid funds that eliminates agency costs by implementing the first-best investment policy for a given capital structure. In a second step we generalize the framework by introducing a tax advantage of debt, and we show that an interior solution for liquidity and capital structure optimally...... trades off tax benefits and agency costs of debt....

Transmission investment problems in Europe: Going beyond standard solutions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Buijs, Patrik; Bekaert, David; Cole, Stijn; Van Hertem, Dirk; Belmans, Ronnie

2011-01-01

The European transmission grid is facing an investment challenge. There is a strong call for more transmission capacity. At the same time, the investment climate is fierce and troubled by public opposition, a complex regulatory framework, etc. Many transmission capacity expansion projects are delayed or canceled. In this paper different technology options suitable for increasing transmission capacity are discussed. The aim is to provide policy-makers with information on technologies without going too much into technical details. The focus is on opportunities and limitations to implement various technological alternatives in practice, including technical solutions that go beyond constructing new connection lines. The criteria used in this technology assessment are based on the obstacles reported in the European Priority Interconnection Plan. This ensures a realistic approach based on problems encountered in real projects. Although AC overhead lines (OHL) will remain the standard solution for grid expansion, it is argued that different technology options can overcome many obstacles that OHL face. Additionally, it is illustrated that the higher investment costs for some solutions can be offset with an increased benefit, e.g. by accomplishing investments with smaller delays due to fewer obstacles encountered. - Research highlights: → Assessment of real problems encountered in transmission investments. → Comparison of transmission technologies. → Techno-economic evaluation of transmission technologies.

Investments in the LNG Value Chain: A Multistage Stochastic Optimization Model focusing on Floating Liquefaction Units

OpenAIRE

Røstad, Lars Dybsjord; Erichsen, Jeanette Christine

2012-01-01

In this thesis, we have developed a strategic optimization model of investments in infrastructure in the LNG value chain. The focus is on floating LNG production units: when they are a viable solution and what value they add to the LNG value chain. First a deterministic model is presented with focus on describing the value chain, before it is expanded to a multistage stochastic model with uncertain field sizes and gas prices. The objective is to maximize expected discounted profits through op...

THE REGIONAL ASPECT OF USING GEOINFORMATION TECHNOLOGIES AT THE STAGE OF INCREASING THE INVESTMENT ATTRACTIVENESS OF ENGINEERING-PREPARED TERRITORIES

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. V. Volkov

2017-01-01

Full Text Available This paper highlights the advantages of geoinformation technologies using in the formation of perspective land plots for construction to increase the investment attractiveness of engineering prepared territories. It discusses the formation of land plots, which were prepared for placement of new enterprises, their legal registration and the necessary infrastructure. It analyzes the approaches to pricing prepared land plots in the market, as well as their demand among investors for major investment projects in the construction sector. The paper describes the characteristics of types of sites for construction, substantiating the creation of a data base for prospective engineering prepared territories.The emphasis is made on the question of working with a large amount of spatial information being analyzed that dictates the use of GIS technologies for increasing efficiency of interaction of interested parties. The article analyzes the structure of the Federal geographic information system, created to provide electronic interaction at the level of the Federal Executive power, local government bodies, legal persons and individuals.Geographic information system (GIS of this level can provide a comprehensive assessment of the quality of the prepared documents, execution of project agreements of territorial planning and information support for decision for all levels of government in planning of territory development. GIS allow us to operatively evaluate the investment attractiveness of prospective land plots for construction. The use of technologies of collecting and providing information about engineering prepared territories to potential investors improves the investment attractiveness of the Russian Federation on the whole. 

Optimization of use of waste in the future energy system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Muenster, Marie; Meibom, Peter

2011-01-01

Alternative uses of waste for energy production become increasingly interesting when considered from two perspectives, that of waste management and the energy system perspective. This paper presents the results of an enquiry into the use of waste in a future energy system. The analysis was performed using the energy system analysis model, Balmorel. The study is focused on Germany and the Nordic countries and demonstrates the optimization of both investments and production within the energy systems. The results present cost optimization excluding taxation concerning the use of waste for energy production in Denmark in a 2025 scenario with 48% renewable energy. Investments in a range of waste conversion technologies are facilitated, including waste incineration, co-combustion with coal, anaerobic digestion, and gasification. The most economically feasible solutions are found to be incineration of mixed waste, anaerobic digestion of organic waste, and gasification of part of the potential RDF (refuse derived fuel) for CHP (combined heat and power) production, while the remaining part is co-combusted with coal. Co-combustion mainly takes place in new coal-fired power plants, allowing investments to increase in comparison with a situation where only investments in waste incineration are allowed. -- Highlights: → The analysis is based on hourly chronological time steps, thereby taking dynamic properties of the energy system into account. → The system analyzed includes both the heat and the electricity market, which is important when analyzing e.g. CHP technologies. → The surrounding countries, which form part of the same electricity market, are included in the analysis. → New innovative Waste-to-Energy production plants have been modeled to allow for a more efficient and flexible use of waste. → The analysis includes economical optimization of operation and of investments in production and transmission of both electricity and heat.

Roadmapping or development of future investments in environmental science and technology

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wilburn, D. (Dianne)

2002-01-01

priorities for future program planning and development of future investments in environmental science and technology, which would reduce risk by delivering additional data and technologies with possible incremental improvement to baselines.

Investment, regulation, and uncertainty: managing new plant breeding techniques.

Science.gov (United States)

Smyth, Stuart J; McDonald, Jillian; Falck-Zepeda, Jose

2014-01-01

As with any technological innovation, time refines the technology, improving upon the original version of the innovative product. The initial GM crops had single traits for either herbicide tolerance or insect resistance. Current varieties have both of these traits stacked together and in many cases other abiotic and biotic traits have also been stacked. This innovation requires investment. While this is relatively straight forward, certain conditions need to exist such that investments can be facilitated. The principle requirement for investment is that regulatory frameworks render consistent and timely decisions. If the certainty of regulatory outcomes weakens, the potential for changes in investment patterns increases.   This article provides a summary background to the leading plant breeding technologies that are either currently being used to develop new crop varieties or are in the pipeline to be applied to plant breeding within the next few years. Challenges for existing regulatory systems are highlighted. Utilizing an option value approach from investment literature, an assessment of uncertainty regarding the regulatory approval for these varying techniques is undertaken. This research highlights which technology development options have the greatest degree of uncertainty and hence, which ones might be expected to see an investment decline.

An Optimal Investment Strategy for Insurers in Incomplete Markets

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mohamed Badaoui

2018-04-01

Full Text Available In this paper we consider the problem of an insurance company where the wealth of the insurer is described by a Cramér-Lundberg process. The insurer is allowed to invest in a risky asset with stochastic volatility subject to the influence of an economic factor and the remaining surplus in a bank account. The price of the risky asset and the economic factor are modeled by a system of correlated stochastic differential equations. In a finite horizon framework and assuming that the market is incomplete, we study the problem of maximizing the expected utility of terminal wealth. When the insurer’s preferences are exponential, an existence and uniqueness theorem is proven for the non-linear Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation (HJB. The optimal strategy and the value function have been produced in closed form. In addition and in order to show the connection between the insurer’s decision and the correlation coefficient we present two numerical approaches: A Monte-Carlo method based on the stochastic representation of the solution of the insurer problem via Feynman-Kac’s formula, and a mixed Finite Difference Monte-Carlo one. Finally the results are presented in the case of Scott model.

The role of technology in the de-regulated electricity marketplace

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Seckington, B.

1999-01-01

There are certain priorities for a power generation company in a deregulated market including: low cost client satisfaction, end-use technologies and quality and reliability performance; low cost/high marginal profit generation for the shareholder's values; and minimum environmental impacts, that are economically affordable and consistent with or better than regulations requirements. R and D strategic directions over time include the short term, medium term and long term, corresponding to 1-3 years, 4-6 years, and 7-10 years. In the short term, technology is operational, while in the medium term it is transitional and includes existing new technology. In the long term, there is a new generation technology emerging, and in the strategic long term of 11-20 years, there is new technology enhancement and visionary technology emerging. For short term technology in order to optimize profitability and assets, certain things are essential: for nuclear, get existing units back on track; for hydro, life management of existing equipment; and for coal, improve efficiency, optimize OMA/re-investment and improve environmental performance. Other minor means of generation and corresponding comments are added. For medium term technology in order to optimize profitability and assets, certain things are necessary including: for nuclear, get and maintain existing units on track; for hydro, life management of existing equipment; and for coal, improve efficiency, optimize OMA/re-investment and improve environmental performance. Other minor generation means are mentioned in the near term. For generation R and D in the long term, brief comments are made concerning what can be done to optimize profitability and meet new regulations, with existing assets to improve cost and environmental performance, with new generation and environmental technologies, and taking risks with developing visionary technologies, both environmental and generational. Further comments concerning optimizing

Public Investment, Revenue Shocks, and Borrowing Restrictions

OpenAIRE

Büttner, Thiess; Wildasin, David E.

2010-01-01

This paper lays out a theory of taxation and public investment in an intertemporal setting under conditions of revenue shocks. Without borrowing restrictions, the optimal policy is characterized by smooth time paths of taxes and public investment. While the introduction of formal borrowing restrictions leads to some precautionary savings, it gives rise to fluctuations in public investment in response to adverse but also favorable revenue shocks. This theoretical result is tested empirically u...

Construction project investment control model based on instant information

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

WANG Xue-tong

2006-01-01

Change of construction conditions always influences project investment by causing the loss of construction work time and extending the duration. To resolve such problem as difficult dynamic control in work construction plan, this article presents a concept of instant optimization by ways of adjustment operation time of each working procedure to minimize investment change. Based on this concept, its mathematical model is established and a strict mathematical justification is performed. An instant optimization model takes advantage of instant information in the construction process to duly complete adjustment of construction; thus we maximize cost efficiency of project investment.

Incorporating technology-based learning tools into teaching and learning of optimization problems

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Irene

2014-07-01

The traditional approach of teaching optimization problems in calculus emphasizes more on teaching the students using analytical approach through a series of procedural steps. However, optimization normally involves problem solving in real life problems and most students fail to translate the problems into mathematic models and have difficulties to visualize the concept underlying. As an educator, it is essential to embed technology in suitable content areas to engage students in construction of meaningful learning by creating a technology-based learning environment. This paper presents the applications of technology-based learning tool in designing optimization learning activities with illustrative examples, as well as to address the challenges in the implementation of using technology in teaching and learning optimization. The suggestion activities in this paper allow flexibility for educator to modify their teaching strategy and apply technology to accommodate different level of studies for the topic of optimization. Hence, this provides great potential for a wide range of learners to enhance their understanding of the concept of optimization.

Human Capital Investment and the Completion of Risky R&D Projects

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Siyahhan, Baran; Engelbert, Dockner

2010-01-01

but can be observed during the R&D phase of the project. The exogenous value of the patent determines the firm’s decisions to invest in human capital, to abandon the project if nec- essary, and to invest in marketing the new product. We study the corresponding optimal stopping times, determine their value...... and risk consequences, and derive optimal investment in the stock of human capital. While optimal investment in human capital is very sensitive to its productivity do increase the probability of a breakthrough it is insensitive to changes in the volatility of the present value of the patent. The value...... of the firm is driven by fixed labor costs that occur until the breakthrough is made, the call option to invest in human capital and market the product, and the put option to abandon the project. These options together with labor costs’ based operating leverage determine the risk dynamics. Risk varies non...

Human Capital Investment and the Value of Risky R&D Projects

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Dockner, Engelbert; Siyahhan, Baran

be observed during the R&D phase of the project. The exogenous value of the patent determines the firm’s decisions to invest in human capital, to abandon the project if necessary, and to invest in marketing the new product. We study the corresponding optimal stopping times, determine their value and risk...... consequences, and derive optimal investment in the stock of human capital. While optimal investment in human capital is very sensitive to its productivity do increase the probability of a breakthrough it is insensitive to changes in the volatility of the present value of the patent. The value of the firm...... is driven by fixed labor costs that occur until the breakthrough is made, the call option to invest in human capital and market the product, and the put option to abandon the project. These options together with labor costs’ based operating leverage determine the risk dynamics. Firm risk is inverse U...

Economic Optimization of Component Sizing for Residential Battery Storage Systems

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Holger C. Hesse

2017-06-01

Full Text Available Battery energy storage systems (BESS coupled with rooftop-mounted residential photovoltaic (PV generation, designated as PV-BESS, draw increasing attention and market penetration as more and more such systems become available. The manifold BESS deployed to date rely on a variety of different battery technologies, show a great variation of battery size, and power electronics dimensioning. However, given today’s high investment costs of BESS, a well-matched design and adequate sizing of the storage systems are prerequisites to allow profitability for the end-user. The economic viability of a PV-BESS depends also on the battery operation, storage technology, and aging of the system. In this paper, a general method for comprehensive PV-BESS techno-economic analysis and optimization is presented and applied to the state-of-art PV-BESS to determine its optimal parameters. Using a linear optimization method, a cost-optimal sizing of the battery and power electronics is derived based on solar energy availability and local demand. At the same time, the power flow optimization reveals the best storage operation patterns considering a trade-off between energy purchase, feed-in remuneration, and battery aging. Using up to date technology-specific aging information and the investment cost of battery and inverter systems, three mature battery chemistries are compared; a lead-acid (PbA system and two lithium-ion systems, one with lithium-iron-phosphate (LFP and another with lithium-nickel-manganese-cobalt (NMC cathode. The results show that different storage technology and component sizing provide the best economic performances, depending on the scenario of load demand and PV generation.

Impact of Climate Change. Policy Uncertainty in Power Investment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Blyth, W.; Yang, M.

2006-10-01

Climate change policies are being introduced or actively considered in all IEA member countries, changing the investment conditions and technology choices in the energy sector. Many of these policies are at a formative stage, and policy uncertainty is currently high. The objective of this paper is to quantify the impacts of climate change policy on power investment. We use Real Options Analysis approach in the study and model uncertain carbon price and fuel price with stochastic variables. The analysis compares the effects of climate policy uncertainty with fuel price uncertainty, showing the relative importance of these sources of risk for different technologies. This paper considers views on the importance of climate policy risk, how it is managed, and how it might affect investment behaviour. The implications for policymakers are analyzed, allowing the key messages to be transferred into policy design decisions. We found that in many cases, the dominant risks facing base-load generation investment decisions will be market risks associated with electricity and fuel prices. However, under certain conditions and for some technologies, climate policy uncertainty can be an important risk factor, creating an incentive to delay investment and raising investment thresholds. This paper concludes that government climate change policies to promote investment in low-carbon technologies should aim to overcome this incentive to delay by sending long-term investment signals backed up by strengthened international policy action to enhance domestic policy credibility

Trajectory of Sewerage System Development Optimization

Science.gov (United States)

Chupin, R. V.; Mayzel, I. V.; Chupin, V. R.

2017-11-01

The transition to market relations has determined a new technology for our country to manage the development of urban engineering systems. This technology has shifted to the municipal level and it can, in large, be presented in two stages. The first is the development of a scheme for the development of the water supply and sanitation system, the second is the implementation of this scheme on the basis of investment programs of utilities. In the investment programs, financial support is provided for the development and reconstruction of water disposal systems due to the investment component in the tariff, connection fees for newly commissioned capital construction projects and targeted financing for selected state and municipal programs, loans and credits. Financial provision with the development of sewerage systems becomes limited and the problem arises in their rational distribution between the construction of new water disposal facilities and the reconstruction of existing ones. The paper suggests a methodology for developing options for the development of sewerage systems, selecting the best of them by the life cycle cost criterion, taking into account the limited investments in their construction, models and methods of analysis, optimizing their reconstruction and development, taking into account reliability and seismic resistance.

Optimal Time-Consistent Investment Strategy for a DC Pension Plan with the Return of Premiums Clauses and Annuity Contracts

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

De-Lei Sheng

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Defined contribution and annuity contract are merged into one pension plan to study both accumulation phase and distribution phase, which results in such effects that both phases before and after retirement being “defined”. Under the Heston’s stochastic volatility model, this paper focuses on mean-variance insurers with the return of premiums clauses to study the optimal time-consistent investment strategy for the DC pension merged with an annuity contract. Both accumulation phase before retirement and distribution phase after retirement are studied. In the time-consistent framework, the extended Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equations associated with the optimization problem are established. Applying stochastic optimal control technique, the time-consistent explicit solutions of the optimal strategies and the efficient frontiers are obtained. In addition, numerical analysis illustrates our results and also deepens our knowledge or understanding of the research results.

Household Consumption, Investment and Life Insurance

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bruhn, Kenneth; Steffensen, Mogens

2011-01-01

This paper develops a continuous-time Markov model for utility optimization of households. The household optimizes expected future utility from consumption by controlling consumption, investments and purchase of lifeinsurance for each person in the household. The optimal controls are investigated...... in the special case of a two-person household, and we present graphics illustrating how differences between the two persons affect the controls....

Understanding the Impact of Business Cases on IT Investment Decisions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Berghout, Egon; Tan, Chee-Wee

2013-01-01

This study synthesizes the extant literature to derive an integrative developmental framework for IT business cases that can be applied to diagnose the feasibility of technological investments. We then construct a theoretical model that postulates the impact of IT business case elements on the in......This study synthesizes the extant literature to derive an integrative developmental framework for IT business cases that can be applied to diagnose the feasibility of technological investments. We then construct a theoretical model that postulates the impact of IT business case elements...... on the initial cost estimates of technological investments. Subsequently, our theoretical model is subjected to empirical validation through content analysis of IT business cases developed for municipal e-government projects. Findings indicate that the richness of the richness of business cases translates...... to more initial costs being identified in technological investments, thereby conserving resources for the organization through informed investment decisions....

Investment in new product reliability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Murthy, D.N.P.; Rausand, M.; Virtanen, S.

2009-01-01

Product reliability is of great importance to both manufacturers and customers. Building reliability into a new product is costly, but the consequences of inadequate product reliability can be costlier. This implies that manufacturers need to decide on the optimal investment in new product reliability by achieving a suitable trade-off between the two costs. This paper develops a framework and proposes an approach to help manufacturers decide on the investment in new product reliability.

Health technology assessment to optimize health technology utilization: using implementation initiatives and monitoring processes.

Science.gov (United States)

Frønsdal, Katrine B; Facey, Karen; Klemp, Marianne; Norderhaug, Inger Natvig; Mørland, Berit; Røttingen, John-Arne

2010-07-01

The way in which a health technology is used in any particular health system depends on the decisions and actions of a variety of stakeholders, the local culture, and context. In 2009, the HTAi Policy Forum considered how health technology assessment (HTA) could be improved to optimize the use of technologies (in terms of uptake, change in use, or disinvestment) in such complex systems. In scoping, it was agreed to focus on initiatives to implement evidence-based guidance and monitoring activities. A review identified systematic reviews of implementation initiatives and monitoring activities. A two-day deliberative workshop was held to discuss key papers, members' experiences, and collectively address key questions. This consensus paper was developed by email and finalized at a postworkshop meeting. Evidence suggests that the impact and use of HTA could be increased by ensuring timely delivery of relevant reports to clearly determined policy receptor (decision-making) points. To achieve this, the breadth of assessment, implementation initiatives such as incentives and targeted, intelligent dissemination of HTA result, needs to be considered. HTA stakeholders undertake a variety of monitoring activities, which could inform optimal use of a technology. However, the quality of these data varies and is often not submitted to an HTA. Monitoring data should be sufficiently robust so that they can be used in HTA to inform optimal use of technology. Evidence-based implementation initiatives should be developed for HTA, to better inform decision makers at all levels in a health system about the optimal use of technology.

Investments on a Rugged Landscape: The Effect of Investor Population, Network Structure, and Complexity on Technological Change

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hain, Daniel; Mas Tur, Elena

In this paper, we investigate which characteristics of technological and financial systems might be conductive for technological change. We are particularly in how the interplay between capabilities, resources and networks among investors with the complexity and maturity of technologies affect...... rates of technological change and diversity, and prevents technologies from getting stuck in the financial “valley of death”. In a next step, we introduce investor networks and allow agents to co-invest together in order to pool financial resources and get access to their forecasting capability...... in a specific technological domain. We compare which investor network structures lead to the high rates of technological change and diversity on a given technology landscape. Results from a Monte Carlo simulation indicate networked investor population to outperform the case of isolated stand-alone investors...

Optimal investment portfolio in renewable energy. The Spanish case

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Munoz, Jose Ignacio; Sanchez de la Nieta, Agustin A.; Contreras, Javier; Bernal-Agustin, Jose L.

2009-01-01

This article presents a model for investing in renewable energies in the framework of the Spanish electricity market in a way that risk is minimised for the investor while returns are maximised. The model outlined here is based on an economic model for calculating cash flows intended to obtain the internal rate of return (IRR) of the different energies being studied: wind, photovoltaic, mini hydro and thermo electrical. The IRRs obtained are considered the returns on investments, while their standard deviations are considered associated risks. In order to minimise risk, a comprehensive portfolio of investments is created that includes all of the available energies by means of a system of linear equations. The solution of the linear system is graphically checked using the efficient frontier method for the different financing options. Several case studies within the Renewable Energies Plan (PER is its Spanish abbreviation) that is in force in Spain in the period 2005-2010 are analysed in order to illustrate the method, as are other case studies using different types of financing, helping us to reach the pertinent conclusions. (author)

A Novel Approach for Risk Minimization in Life-Cycle Oil Production Optimization

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Capolei, Andrea; Christiansen, Lasse Hjuler; Jørgensen, John Bagterp

2017-01-01

The oil research community has invested much effort into computer aided optimization to enhance oil recovery. While simulation studies have demonstrated the potential of model-based technology to improve industrial standards, the largely unknown geology of subsurface reservoirs limits application...

Optimization of finances into regional energy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alexey Yuryevich Domnikov

2014-06-01

Full Text Available The development of modern Russian energy collides with the need for major investments in the modernization and renewal of generation and transmission capacity. In terms of attracting sufficient financial resources and find ways to increase, energy sector profitability and investment attractiveness of particular importance is the problem of investment financing optimizing aimed at minimizing the cost of financing while maintaining financial stability of the power companies and the goals and objectives of Russian energy system long-term development. The article discusses the problem of investment projects financing in power generation from the point of view of the need to achieve optimal investment budget. Presents the author’s approach to the investment financing optimization of power generation company that will achieve the minimum cost of resources involved, taking into account the impact of the funding structure for the power generating company financial sustainability. The developed model is applied to the problem of investment budget optimizing, for example, regional power generating company. The results can improve the efficiency of investment in energy, sustainable and competitive development of regional energy systems.

VALUE-ADDED SERVICE INVESTING AND PRICING STRATEGIES FOR A TWO-SIDED PLATFORM UNDER INVESTING RESOURCE CONSTRAINT

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

Guowei Dou; Ping He

2017-01-01

Investing on value-added service (VAS) amplifies users' participation and platform profit.However,the investing resource is usually limited in practice.This paper investigates VAS investing and pricing strategies for a two-sided platform under investing resource constraint.We reveal that with VAS investment,Subsidizing can still be done to enlarge users' demand,even when the investing cost becomes higher.For optimal pricing strategies,the network effect will be the dominating determinant if the gap between two marginal cross-side benefits (i.e.the benefit that users obtain when each new user join the other side of the platform) is large.Interestingly,we show that with the increase of the marginal investing cost,users might either be priced higher or lower.If the marginal investing cost increases to a high level,and the gap between the two marginal cross-side benefits is large,lowering the access fee for users possessing the higher cross-side network effect does not necessarily compensate more profit loss caused by higher cost.Moreover,after VAS is developed,raising the access fee for those whose marginal investing benefit is large does not necessarily generate more profit as well.The opposite strategy further enlarges users' utility,and promotes the investment to benefit more users.

Cap-and-trade policy: The influence on investments in carbon dioxide reducing technologies in Indiana

Science.gov (United States)

Fahie, Monique

With most of the energy produced in the state of Indiana coming from coal, the implementation of policy instruments such as cap-and-trade, which is included in the most recent climate bill, will have significant effects. This thesis provides an analysis of the effects that a cap-and-trade policy might have on the investment decisions for alternative technologies in the power plant sector in Indiana. Two economic models of representative coal-fired power plants, Gallagher (600MW) and Rockport (2600MW), are selected and used to evaluate the repowering decision of a plant for several technologies: integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC), wind farm combined with natural gas combined cycle (NGCC) and supercritical pulverized coal (SCPC). The firm will make its decisions based on the net present value (NPV) of cost estimates for these CO2 reducing technologies, the cost of purchasing offsets and CO 2 allowances. This model is applied to a base case and three American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009 cases derived from the Energy Information Administration (EIA, 2009b). A sensitivity analysis is done on the discount rate and capital costs. The results of the study indicate that a SCPC plant without carbon capture and storage (CCS) is the least costly compliance option for both plants under all of the cases while retrofitting the existing plant with CCS is the most expensive. Gallagher's three least expensive options across most scenarios were SCPC without CCS, the operation of the existing plant as is and investment in wind plus NGCC. Rockport's three least expensive compliance options across most scenarios were SCPC without CCS, the operation of the existing plant as is and IGCC without CCS. For both plants, when a 12% discount rate is utilized, NPV of costs are generally lower and the operation of the existing plant technology with the aid of allowances and offsets to be in compliance is the cheapest option. If capital costs were to decrease by 30%, a SCPC

Technology Spillover from Foreign Direct Investment in Turkey

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Özcan Karahan

2016-12-01

quarterly data for the period of 2002 and 2015 in Turkey. Thus we try to examine whether technological diffusion generated by FDI inflows to Turkey enhances the innovative capability of the country or not. Design/methodology/approach – The variables Foreign Direct Investment (FDI and Gross Domestic Product (GDP are sourced from Electronic Data Delivery System (EDDS in Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey. FDI series consist of values called "Net Incurrence of Liabilities" in Balance of Payments Analytical Presentation while GDP series gather from the expenditure based GDP data in EDDS. Both Johansen Cointegration Test and Granger Causality Test are applied to examine between Foreign Direct Investment flows and economic growth in Turkey. Findings – Results reveal that there is not any significant link among the FDI and economic growth during the studied time period in Turkey. It seems that FDI inflows to Turkey is not complementary to economic growth, which shows that positive spillover effect sourced from FDI inflows to Turkey does not exist. Research limitations/implications – Policymakers should recognize that technology spillover effects of FDI do not occur without greater absorptive capacity. Attracting FDI is only one part of the story and thus not yield the desired benefits itself. Positive effects of FDI depends on the overall incentive and capacity structure of the host country. Then the key policy implication here is that policymakers should give same weight of policies aimed at attracting FDI versus those that seek to improve local economic conditions. Originality/value – This study insight the spillover effects of FDI based on Turkish experience that benefits from FDI do not occur automatically and effortlessly in developing countries.

Evaluating the impact of investments in information technology on structural inertia in health organizations.

Science.gov (United States)

Bewley, Lee W

2010-01-01

Structural inertia is the overall capacity of an organization to adapt within a market environment. This paper reviews the impact of healthcare investments in information management/information technology (IM/IT) on the strategic management concept of structural inertia. Research indicates that healthcare executives should consider the relative state of structural inertia for their firms and match them with potential IM/IT solutions. Additionally, organizations should favorably consider IM/IT solutions that are comparatively less complex.

Corporate Investment Dynamic Control System Based on Chaos Cycle Perturbations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yanyan Gao

2014-11-01

Full Text Available It exists some issues such as the low predict accuracy and a bad convergence performance to predict business investment with BP neural network algorithm. This paper presents a predictive model of business investment based on improved artificial bee colony and chaos periodic disturbance optimizing BP neural network algorithm. At first, use Boltzmann selection strategy and group behaviour control strategy to optimize the artificial bee colony algorithm, and then use the improved algorithm to transform BP neural network algorithm’s optimized parameters into optimization process of artificial bee colony algorithm to reduce the training error of the original algorithm. Finally, use chaotic optimized Logistic mapping enables BP neural network out of the local minimum point in the training process based on secondary chaotic cycle perturbation strategies. Simulation results show that the proposed predictive model of investment in the enterprise based on improved artificial bee colony and chaos periodic disturbance optimizing BP neural network algorithm shows higher predict accuracy and better convergence than normal BP neural network algorithm.

News and views: perspectives on graphene and other 2d materials research and technology investments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ribeiro-Soares, J.

2014-01-01

With the actual experimental realization of graphene samples, it became possible not only to exploit the special physical properties of graphene but also to exploit its technological applications. As the field developed, the discovery of other 2D materials occurred and this opened up access to a plethora of combinations of a large variety of electrical, optical, mechanical, and chemical properties. Now there are large investments being made around the world to develop the graphene research area and to boost graphene use in technology. Here, we discuss current research and some future prospects for this area of layered nanomaterials. (author)

The Effects of Abandonment Options on Investment Timing and Profit Sharing of FDI

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Weiwei Zhang

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The paper incorporates cooperative game theory into a real option method in a foreign direct investment setting and examines the operational decisions of a multinational corporation in a cooperative framework, where the corporation is endowed with an abandonment option and shares its profit with the host country. In particular, we investigate how the abandonment options affect the optimal investment timing and the optimal profit share of a foreign direct investment using a real option game method. We show that the flexibility of the abandonment option induces the corporation to investment earlier, which indicates the negative effects on investment trigger. The result is consistent with intuition since the abandonment option provides insurance and thus reduces the overall risk of the project. We also find that the introduction of the abandonment option reduces the optimal profit share in a cooperative framework and in turn the lower profit share increases the investment trigger, thereby having a positive effect on the investment threshold to hinder the investment. By numerical analysis, we find that the overall effect of the abandonment options is inversely related to the investment trigger. These findings provide quantitative analysis about the decisions regarding cooperation in international investment extraction projects.

Essays on optimal hedging and investment strategies and on derivative pricing

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van den Goorbergh, R.W.J.

2004-01-01

This dissertation encompasses four essays on various topics within the field of finance. Chapter 1 presents an overview of the contributions of each essay. Chapter 2, titled Risk Aversion, Price Uncertainty, and Irreversible Investments, extends the theory of irreversible investment under

Optimizing time and resource allocation trade-offs for investment into morphological and behavioral defense

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Steiner, Uli; Pfeiffer, Thomas

2007-01-01

pronounced at intermediate environmental conditions. Optimizing single traits generally leads to a more pronounced response of the defense traits, which implies that studying single traits leads to an overestimation of their response to predation. Behavioral defense and morphological defense compensate......Prey organisms are confronted with time and resource allocation trade-offs. Time allocation trade-offs partition time, for example, between foraging effort to acquire resources and behavioral defense. Resource allocation trade-offs partition the acquired resources between multiple traits...... for and augment each other depending on predator densities and the effectiveness of the defense mechanisms. In the presence of time constraints, the model shows peak investment into morphological and behavioral defense at intermediate resource levels....

Coordinating Leader-Follower Supply Chain with Sustainable Green Technology Innovation on Their Fairness Concerns.

Science.gov (United States)

Du, Bisheng; Liu, Qing; Li, Guiping

2017-11-08

Sustainable green technology innovation is essential in all the stages of the supply chain development. The members of the supply chain in each stage need to invest in sustainable green technology innovation research and development. However, whether the sustainable green technology innovation investments and profits for all the members are fairness concerned is a critical factor to motivate the supply chain members. Motivated by a real business investigation, in this study, a supply chain model with one supplier and one manufacturer is analyzed. We consider fairness concerns for the supplier and the manufacturer with sustainable green technology innovation development. We derive the optimal results in both with and without fairness concern. The results indicate that fairness concerns can promote and coordinate the supply chain members without advantage inequity averseness, to invest more on their sustainable green technology innovation development.

Issues concerning outer space investments in international law ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Issues concerning outer space investments in international law. ... Recent improvements in technology have in essence increased the viability of outer space as the next frontier for international investment and development. In addition to ... Key words: Outer Space, Investments, International Law, International Space Station ...

Valuing uncertain cash flows from investments that enhance energy efficiency.

Science.gov (United States)

Abadie, Luis M; Chamorro, José M; González-Eguino, Mikel

2013-02-15

There is a broad consensus that investments to enhance energy efficiency quickly pay for themselves in lower energy bills and spared emission allowances. However, investments that at first glance seem worthwhile usually are not undertaken. One of the plausible, non-excluding explanations is the numerous uncertainties that these investments face. This paper deals with the optimal time to invest in an energy efficiency enhancement at a facility already in place that consumes huge amounts of a fossil fuel (coal) and operates under carbon constraints. We follow the Real Options approach. Our model comprises three sources of uncertainty following different stochastic processes which allows for application in a broad range of settings. We assess the investment option by means of a three-dimensional binomial lattice. We compute the trigger investment cost, i.e., the threshold level below which immediate investment would be optimal. We analyze the major drivers of this decision thus aiming at the most promising policies in this regard. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Decision and coordination of low-carbon supply chain considering technological spillover and environmental awareness.

Science.gov (United States)

Xu, Lang; Wang, Chuanxu; Li, Hui

2017-06-08

We focus on the impacts of technological spillovers and environmental awareness in a two-echelon supply chain with one-single supplier and one-single manufacturer to reduce carbon emission. In this supply chain, carbon abatement investment becomes one of key factors of cutting costs and improving profits, which is reducing production costs in the components and products-the investment from players in supply chain. On the basis of optimality theory, the centralized and decentralized models are respectively established to investigate the optimal decisions and profits. Further, setting the players' profits of the decentralized scenario as the disagreement points, we propose a bargaining-coordination contract through revenue-cost sharing to enhance the performance. Finally, by theoretical comparison and numerical analysis, the results show that: (i) The optimal profits of players and supply chain improve as technological spillovers and environmental awareness increase, and the profits of them in the bargaining-coordination contract are higher than that in the decentralized scenario; (ii) Technological spillovers between the players amplify the impact of "free-ride" behavior, in which the supplier always incentives the manufacturer to improve carbon emission intensity, but the cooperation will achieves and the profits will improve only when technological spillovers and environmental awareness are great; (iii) The contract can effectively achieve coordinated supply chain, and improve carbon abatement investment.

An Exact Soultion for the Investment and Market Value of a Firm Facing Uncertainty, Adjustment Costs, and Irreversibility

OpenAIRE

Andrew B. Abel; Janice C. Eberly

1993-01-01

This paper derives closed-form solutions for the investment and market value, under uncertainty, of competitive firms with constant returns to scale production and convex costs of adjustment. Solutions are derived for the case of irreversible investment as well as for reversible investment. Optimal investment is a non-decreasing function of q, the shadow value of capital. The conditions of optimality imply that q cannot contain a bubble; thus, optimal investment depends only on fundamentals. ...

The Role of Agribusiness Assets in Investment Portfolios

OpenAIRE

Johnson, Michael; Malcolm, Bill; O'Connor, Ian

2006-01-01

Investment in agribusiness assets has grown significantly in recent years. The question of interest is whether including agribusiness assets in investment portfolios provide benefits. The effects of diversification by including agribusiness assets in two investment portfolios, a mixed asset portfolio and a diversified share portfolio was investigated using Markowitz’s (1952) Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT) of mean-variance optimization. To measure the performance of agribusiness assets, an in...

Mechanisms for efficient investments and optimal zones in regional power market

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andročec Ivan

2014-01-01

Full Text Available The paper is result of research different cross-border electricity trading mechanisms impact. Focus is on investments in generation and transmission power system facilities in regional market. Assumptions include efficient market coupling mechanism (with more bidding zones, use of additional investment indicators (like social welfare and congestion cost and security of supply issues (capacity mechanisms. There is discussion on cost benefits analysis for particular market participants and there is possibility of risk reduction for regional power system expansion. It is shown current state-of-the-art, problems and trends in solving some aspects of market integration and investment issues. In some cases smaller and well defined bidding areas are absolutely essential in order to ensure system security and economic efficiency. There is no single criterion for power system expansion but it is possible to use combination of incentive schemes and possible through one index for cross-border trade. Risk management for cross-border electricity trading through several areas needs to be upgraded with use of financial transmission rights like weighted average area prices, respectively. Regional power system security is closely associated with timely investments in energy supply in line with economic development and environmental needs. Security of supply indicator is deriving an estimation of security of supply improvement from the market based simulation results when a generation or transmission investment project is implemented. All researched makes market integration and investments in Europe more efficient and gives more correct signals to market participants in regional market.

The Dynamics of Bertrand Price Competition with Cost-Reducing Investments

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Iskhakov, Fedor; Rust, John; Schjerning, Bertel

We present a dynamic extension of the classic static model of Bertrand price competition that allows competing duopolists to undertake cost-reducing investments in an attempt to “leapfrog” their rival to attain low-cost leadership – at least temporarily. We show that leapfrogging occurs in equili......We present a dynamic extension of the classic static model of Bertrand price competition that allows competing duopolists to undertake cost-reducing investments in an attempt to “leapfrog” their rival to attain low-cost leadership – at least temporarily. We show that leapfrogging occurs...... in equilibrium, resolving the Bertrand investment paradox., i.e. leapfrogging explains why firms have an ex ante incentive to undertake cost-reducing investments even though they realize that simultaneous investments to acquire the state of the art production technology would result in Bertrand price competition...... leader. We show that the equilibrium involves investment preemption only when the firms invest in a deterministically alternating fashion and technological progress is deterministic. We prove that when technological progress is deterministic and firms move in an alternating fashion, the game has a unique...

Investment Timing, Liquidity, and Agency Costs of Debt

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hirth, Stefan; Uhrig-Homburg, Marliese

This paper examines the effect of debt and liquidity on corporate investment in a continuous-time dynamic framework. We show that due to stockholder-bondholder agency conflicts, investment thresholds are U-shaped in leverage and decreasing in liquidity. While the underinvestment problem dominates...... for low-liquidity firms, there is overinvestment for high-liquidity firms. In the absence of tax effects, we derive the optimal level of liquid funds that eliminates agency costs by implementing the first-best investment policy for some given capital structure. In a second step we generalize the framework...... by introducing a tax advantage of debt, and we show that an interior solution for liquidity and capital structure optimally trades off tax benefits and agency costs of debt....

Chinese Foreign Direct Investment in R&D in Europe

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Di Minin, Alberto; Zhang, Jieyin; Gammeltoft, Peter

2012-01-01

’ investment in R&D in Europe, focusing on three different aspects: technology exploration vs. technology exploitation as investment motive; locational strategies for R&D investments; and the dynamics of motives of overseas R&D units. The analysis proceeds to draw out differences between the R...... rather than technological innovation, as the extant literature tends to assume. Chinese R&D units appear to evolve often from a strategy of pure technology exploration, over fusion of foreign technologies with R&D activities back home, into one of technology exploitation in foreign locations.......&D internationalization process of multinationals from developed economies and those from emerging economies. Evidence of Chinese R&D internationalization is provided through analyses of five cases of international R&D units set up by Chinese companies in Europe: ZTE Corporation, JAC Motors, Chang’an Motors, Hisense...

The timing of pollution abatement investments and the business cycle. An international comparison

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bouman, M. [Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Econometrics, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam (Netherlands); Hofkes, M.W. [Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Econometrics, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam (Netherlands)

1995-12-31

A simple equilibrium business-cycle model for an economy with both clean- and dirty-producing plants is developed. The authors derive that the optimal timing of cleaning the production process is during a slowdown of the economy. Due to external effects and market failures the timing of pollution abatement investments is not expected to be optimal in the real world. We test the optimality of the timing of those investments with data for Germany, the Netherlands and the U.S.A. It appears that for more than 25 percent of the sectors pollution abatement investments show counter-cyclical behaviour, while in only one sector these investments are pro-cyclical. 1 tab., 3 appendices, 10 refs.

The timing of pollution abatement investments and the business cycle. An international comparison

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bouman, M.; Hofkes, M.W.

1995-01-01

A simple equilibrium business-cycle model for an economy with both clean- and dirty-producing plants is developed. The authors derive that the optimal timing of cleaning the production process is during a slowdown of the economy. Due to external effects and market failures the timing of pollution abatement investments is not expected to be optimal in the real world. We test the optimality of the timing of those investments with data for Germany, the Netherlands and the U.S.A. It appears that for more than 25 percent of the sectors pollution abatement investments show counter-cyclical behaviour, while in only one sector these investments are pro-cyclical. 1 tab., 3 appendices, 10 refs

Optimal Housing, Consumption, and Investment Decisions over the Life Cycle

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kraft, Holger; Munk, Claus

2011-01-01

We derive explicit solutions to life-cycle utility maximization problems involving stock and bond investment, perishable consumption, and the rental and ownership of residential real estate. Prices of houses, stocks and bonds, and labor income are correlated. Because of a positive correlation...... between house prices and labor income, young individuals want little exposure to house price risk and tend to rent their home. Later in life the desired housing investment increases and will eventually reach and exceed the desired consumption, suggesting that the individual should buy his home—and either...... additional housing units (for renting out) or house price–linked financial assets. In the final years, preferences shift back to home rental. The derived strategies are still useful if housing positions are only reset infrequently. Our results suggest that markets for real estate investment trusts or other...

Financing Constraints, Cash-Flow Risk, and Corporate Investment

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hirth, Stefan; Viswanatha, Marc

2011-01-01

This paper examines the effect of debt and liquidity on corporate investment in a continuous-time framework. We show that stockholder-bondholder agency conflicts cause investment thresholds to be U-shaped in leverage and decreasing in liquidity. In the absence of tax effects, we derive the optimal...

Barriers to optimizing investments in the built environment to reduce youth obesity: policy-maker perspectives.

Science.gov (United States)

Grant, Jill L; MacKay, Kathryn C; Manuel, Patricia M; McHugh, Tara-Leigh F

2010-01-01

To identify factors which limit the ability of local governments to make appropriate investments in the built environment to promote youth health and reduce obesity outcomes in Atlantic Canada. Policy-makers and professionals participated in focus groups to discuss the receptiveness of local governments to introducing health considerations into decision-making. Seven facilitated focus groups involved 44 participants from Atlantic Canada. Thematic discourse analysis of the meeting transcripts identified systemic barriers to creating a built environment that fosters health for youth aged 12-15 years. Participants consistently identified four categories of barriers. Financial barriers limit the capacities of local government to build, maintain and operate appropriate facilities. Legacy issues mean that communities inherit a built environment designed to facilitate car use, with inadequate zoning authority to control fast food outlets, and without the means to determine where schools are built or how they are used. Governance barriers derive from government departments with distinct and competing mandates, with a professional structure that privileges engineering, and with funding programs that encourage competition between municipalities. Cultural factors and values affect outcomes: people have adapted to car-oriented living; poverty reduces options for many families; parental fears limit children's mobility; youth receive limited priority in built environment investments. Participants indicated that health issues have increasing profile within local government, making this an opportune time to discuss strategies for optimizing investments in the built environment. The focus group method can foster mutual learning among professionals within government in ways that could advance health promotion.

Incorporating the effects of socioeconomic uncertainty into priority setting for conservation investment.

Science.gov (United States)

McBride, Marissa F; Wilson, Kerrie A; Bode, Michael; Possingham, Hugh P

2007-12-01

Uncertainty in the implementation and outcomes of conservation actions that is not accounted for leaves conservation plans vulnerable to potential changes in future conditions. We used a decision-theoretic approach to investigate the effects of two types of investment uncertainty on the optimal allocation of global conservation resources for land acquisition in the Mediterranean Basin. We considered uncertainty about (1) whether investment will continue and (2) whether the acquired biodiversity assets are secure, which we termed transaction uncertainty and performance uncertainty, respectively. We also developed and tested the robustness of different rules of thumb for guiding the allocation of conservation resources when these sources of uncertainty exist. In the presence of uncertainty in future investment ability (transaction uncertainty), the optimal strategy was opportunistic, meaning the investment priority should be to act where uncertainty is highest while investment remains possible. When there was a probability that investments would fail (performance uncertainty), the optimal solution became a complex trade-off between the immediate biodiversity benefits of acting in a region and the perceived longevity of the investment. In general, regions were prioritized for investment when they had the greatest performance certainty, even if an alternative region was highly threatened or had higher biodiversity value. The improved performance of rules of thumb when accounting for uncertainty highlights the importance of explicitly incorporating sources of investment uncertainty and evaluating potential conservation investments in the context of their likely long-term success.

Self-Averaging Property of Minimal Investment Risk of Mean-Variance Model.

Science.gov (United States)

Shinzato, Takashi

2015-01-01

In portfolio optimization problems, the minimum expected investment risk is not always smaller than the expected minimal investment risk. That is, using a well-known approach from operations research, it is possible to derive a strategy that minimizes the expected investment risk, but this strategy does not always result in the best rate of return on assets. Prior to making investment decisions, it is important to an investor to know the potential minimal investment risk (or the expected minimal investment risk) and to determine the strategy that will maximize the return on assets. We use the self-averaging property to analyze the potential minimal investment risk and the concentrated investment level for the strategy that gives the best rate of return. We compare the results from our method with the results obtained by the operations research approach and with those obtained by a numerical simulation using the optimal portfolio. The results of our method and the numerical simulation are in agreement, but they differ from that of the operations research approach.

Self-Averaging Property of Minimal Investment Risk of Mean-Variance Model.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Takashi Shinzato

Full Text Available In portfolio optimization problems, the minimum expected investment risk is not always smaller than the expected minimal investment risk. That is, using a well-known approach from operations research, it is possible to derive a strategy that minimizes the expected investment risk, but this strategy does not always result in the best rate of return on assets. Prior to making investment decisions, it is important to an investor to know the potential minimal investment risk (or the expected minimal investment risk and to determine the strategy that will maximize the return on assets. We use the self-averaging property to analyze the potential minimal investment risk and the concentrated investment level for the strategy that gives the best rate of return. We compare the results from our method with the results obtained by the operations research approach and with those obtained by a numerical simulation using the optimal portfolio. The results of our method and the numerical simulation are in agreement, but they differ from that of the operations research approach.

Effect of Green Technology Investment on a Production-Inventory System with Carbon Tax

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tapan Kumar Datta

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Carbon emissions play the central role in global warming. Manufacturing firms are significant contributors to carbon emissions. In many countries, regulatory authorities are taking actions to reduce emissions. Carbon taxation and cap-and-trade schemes are two mechanisms implemented in many countries. In the present paper, the author analyzes a production-inventory model under a carbon tax system. The production rate is assumed to be a decision variable and can be set at any level within machine limits. A proportion of items produced are defective, and this proportion depends on the production rate. Demand depends on the selling price. Unit price is a decreasing function of the production rate. Emissions can be reduced to some extent by capital investment on green technology, and this capital investment amount is a decision variable. Customers are categorized as retail customers and wholesale customers. A discount is offered to the wholesale customers on the regular selling price. The results are illustrated by a numerical example and a sensitivity analysis is performed.

R&D Investment in New Technology-Based Firms: Strategic and Entrepreneurial Dynamics and the Impact of Universities

Science.gov (United States)

Lynskey, Michael J.

2016-01-01

This article examines how two core factors--strategic and entrepreneurial dynamics--influence research and development (R&D) investment in new technology-based firms (NTBFs) using data from a questionnaire survey conducted in Japan. Among the strategic dynamics, it is found that joint R&D projects with universities have a positive,…

HIMSS Venture+ Forum and HX360 Provide Industry View of Health Technology Innovation, Startup and Investment Activity; Advancing the New Model of Care.

Science.gov (United States)

Burde, Howard A; Scarfo, Richard

2015-01-01

Presented by HIMSS, the Venture+ Forum program and pitch competition provides a 360-degree view on health technology investing and today's top innovative companies. It features exciting 3-minute pitch presentations from emerging and growth-stage companies, investor panels and a networking reception. Recent Venture+ Forum winners include TowerView Health, Prima-Temp, ActuaiMeds and M3 Clinician. As an industry catalyst for health IT innovation and business-building resource for growing companies and emerging technology solutions, HIMSS has co-developed with A VIA, a new initiative that addresses how emerging technologies, health system business model changes and investment will transform the delivery of care. HX360 engages senior healthcare leaders, innovation teams, investors and entrepreneurs around the vision of transforming healthcare delivery by leveraging technology, process and structure.

Portfolio Optimization

OpenAIRE

Issagali, Aizhan; Alshimbayeva, Damira; Zhalgas, Aidana

2015-01-01

In this paper Portfolio Optimization techniques were used to determine the most favorable investment portfolio. In particular, stock indices of three companies, namely Microsoft Corporation, Christian Dior Fashion House and Shevron Corporation were evaluated. Using this data the amounts invested in each asset when a portfolio is chosen on the efficient frontier were calculated. In addition, the Portfolio with minimum variance, tangency portfolio and optimal Markowitz portfolio are presented.

Environmental investment and firm performance: A network approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bostian, Moriah; Färe, Rolf; Grosskopf, Shawna; Lundgren, Tommy

2016-01-01

This study examines the role of investment in environmental production practices for both environmental performance and energy efficiency over time. We employ a network DEA approach that links successive production technologies through intertemporal investment decisions with a period by period estimation. This allows us to estimate energy efficiency and environmental performance separately, as well as productivity change and its associated decompositions into efficiency change and technology change. Incorporating a network model also allows us to account for both short-term environmental management practices and long-term environmental investments in each of our productivity measures. We apply this framework to a panel of detailed plant-level production data for Swedish manufacturing firms covering the years 2002–2008. - Highlights: • We use a network DEA model to account for intertemporal environmental investment decisionsin measures of firm productivity. • We apply our network technology model to a panel of firms in Sweden's pulp and paperindustry for the years 2002 - 2008. • We model environmental investments and expenditures separately from other productionoriented inputs. • We find evidence of positive relationships between energy efficiency, environmental performance, and firm productivity.

Coordination of Regional Structures’ Interests Concerning Investment Resources of Educational Services of Enterprises under High-Risk Conditions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Semchuk Zhanna V.

2016-02-01

Full Text Available The development of professional education in the context of interaction with the labor market has been analyzed and inconsistencies of professional and economic nature have been revealed. Reasons for the imbalance in the structure of the market for labor and education have been identified, and it was noted that they have a negative impact on the economic security of educational institutions and cause the accumulation of negative factors as well. Elements of foreign experience in forecasting economic development and associated with it changes in educational services with regard to high-risk conditions have been considered for the purpose of its application in Ukraine. A conceptual model of information technology for coordination of regional structures’ interests concerning investment resources of educational services of enterprises under high-risk conditions has been proposed. The information technology is based on the econometric model for optimizing enterprise Internet payment systems, criterion of hierarchical games theories, multiobjective optimization, active systems, the model for diagnosing internal and external threats to the economic security of the educational institution; means and methodology of the system-value approach; algorithms for recognition of crisis situations; the optimization model for forecasting crisis situations and managing risk as well as the decision-making system for coordination of regional structures’ interests concerning investment resources based on the model of a program-designtarget complex

Essays on investment planning in electricity generating capacity

Science.gov (United States)

Gonzalez-Gomez, Jorge

In the first part of this study we develop and analyze two mathematical models that incorporate a time changing demand for electricity and uncertainty of input prices. The first model highlights the shortcomings in assuming a constant plant utilization under uncertainty of input prices and the effects of such assumption on the optimal investment in electricity generating capacity in a simple two period model. The second model presents sufficient restrictions to the optimal investment in electricity generating capacity problem to allow for a recursive solution. The necessary restrictions are extremely limiting to the extend that we found a solution for very simple scenarios. In our opinion, the problem is better handled in a case by case basis rather than under a general dynamic framework. Following the spirit of our conclusions of the first part of our study, in the second part we provide a methodology to simulate long-term natural gas prices, we analyze the investment prospects of nuclear and natural gas generating capacity in Mexico and provide a constraint approach for the optimal generation of hydroelectric plants in the Mexican hydroelectric system. These three problems belong to the solution of the optimal investment in electricity generating capacity in Mexico. To simulate the uncertainty of natural gas prices, we assume that natural gas prices are the sum of two stochastic processes: short-term and long-term variability. We characterize the short-term variability of natural gas prices using an Exponential General Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedastic (EGARCH) model. The uncertainty of the long-term variability of natural gas prices is based on the long-term natural gas prices scenarios of the National Energy Modeling System of the Energy Information Administration. Equipped with a methodology to simulate long-term natural gas prices, we investigate the investment prospects of nuclear and natural gas generating capacity in Mexico using the levelized

THE EVALUATION SYSTEM OF DESIGN SOLUTIONS FOR RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY ON THE PRE-INVESTMENT STAGE THROUGH NEURAL NETWORK TECHNOLOGY

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

G. D. Kostsikava

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Ever since the Soviet Union design solutions were evaluated according to different criteria and indicators. At the present stage of evaluation systems of design solutions stands systemengineering doctrine is allocated. It is complemented by the theory of efficiency and financial sustainability investment project in view of the general market concept. Also great attention is paid to the virtual object modeling. It is urgent to include the behavior prediction of an investment construction project model at each stage of its life cycle. The high cost of all phases of this life cycle makes it necessary to calculate the feasibility of the investment. Very urgent to do it as accurately as possible and before we start of design works on the stage of the investment plan evaluation. Belarus has legislated pre-investment stage of construction project development. To evaluate the design solution at this stage is necessary to develop an investment justification, a project management plan and a business plan. They will evaluate and will compare several options for future objects by the complex. This requires not only time, but considerable financial costs. In order to optimize the process to develop an evaluation system design solutions based on existing projects. It allows the customer (investor choose design solutions to build the object without developing of pre-design documentations for several options. This system it is advisable to try out the example of apartment house building with the assistance of the national fund of project documentation and objects-analogues data bank. The developed evaluation system of design solutions for residential real estate objects in the pre-investment stage is supposed to use the theory of neural networks and neyroprogramming. This system bases on the input parameters projects. The hidden layer neurons are trained to choose suitable projects of apartment houses with their classification. The projects will be classified

Optimal configuration of an integrated power and transport system

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Juul, Nina; Meibom, Peter

2011-01-01

optimal investments in both power plants and vehicle technologies is presented in this article. The model includes the interactions between the power system and the transport system including the competition between flexibility measures such as hydrogen storage in combination with electrolysis, heat...... storage in combination with heat pumps and heat boilers, and plug-in electric vehicles....

CURRENT STATUS AND TRENDS INVESTMENT IN AGRICULTURE UKRAINE

OpenAIRE

Sokolova, A. N.; Yurko, Т. S.; Klimenko, I. V.

2018-01-01

Globalization processes accelerate the pace of scientific and technological progress and innovation and require investment in innovation to enhance the efficiency of the national economy of our state and some of its branches, inter–industry complexes and sub–complexes at the level of developed countries.The article examines the current state of investment in agriculture of Ukraine. The main criteria to encourage capital investment taking into account regional peculiarities capital investment ...

Stimulating Investments in Energy Efficiency Through Supply Chain Integration

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Beatrice Marchi

2018-04-01

Full Text Available Attention to energy efficiency is recently experiencing substantial growth. To overcome the several barriers currently existing that represent an obstacle to the successful implementation of the wide set of energy efficiency measures available, the cooperation among members of a supply chain offers a huge potential. In supply chains, in addition to the traditional coordination of the operations, the members may also share financial resources or act jointly on the capital market. This study presents a two-stage supply chain model considering the opportunity to invest in new energy efficient technologies which are affected by learning effects: the member of the supply chain with better energy performance and/or better financial conditions may find it more profitable to invest in the development of the energy efficiency of its partner. The objective of the model is to determine the optimal investment for each supply chain member so as to maximize the Net Present Value of the supply chain. The impacts of the proposed joint decision-making are investigated through some numerical analysis and managerial insights are proposed: the joint decision-making process on the financial flows for the energy efficiency investments results are especially advantageous (up to a 20% increase of the supply chain Net Present Value when members have different access to capital, which could be the result of different economic conditions in companies’ countries, as well as different credit policies or different credit ratings.

32 CFR Appendix A to Part 37 - What Is the Civil-Military Integration Policy That Is the Basis for Technology Investment...

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... 32 National Defense 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false What Is the Civil-Military Integration Policy That Is the Basis for Technology Investment Agreements? A Appendix A to Part 37 National Defense Department of Defense OFFICE OF THE SECRETARY OF DEFENSE DoD GRANT AND AGREEMENT REGULATIONS TECHNOLOGY...

Development of polymer nano composite patterns using fused deposition modeling for rapid investment casting process

Science.gov (United States)

Vivek, Tiwary; Arunkumar, P.; Deshpande, A. S.; Vinayak, Malik; Kulkarni, R. M.; Asif, Angadi

2018-04-01

Conventional investment casting is one of the oldest and most economical manufacturing techniques to produce intricate and complex part geometries. However, investment casting is considered economical only if the volume of production is large. Design iterations and design optimisations in this technique proves to be very costly due to time and tooling cost for making dies for producing wax patterns. However, with the advent of Additive manufacturing technology, plastic patterns promise a very good potential to replace the wax patterns. This approach can be very useful for low volume production & lab requirements, since the cost and time required to incorporate the changes in the design is very low. This research paper discusses the steps involved for developing polymer nanocomposite filaments and checking its suitability for investment castings. The process parameters of the 3D printer machine are also optimized using the DOE technique to obtain mechanically stronger plastic patterns. The study is done to develop a framework for rapid investment casting for lab as well as industrial requirements.

Asset liquidity, corporate investment, and endogenous financing costs

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Flor, Christian Riis; Hirth, Stefan

2013-01-01

We analyze how the liquidity of real and financial assets affects corporate investment. The trade-off between liquidation costs and underinvestment costs implies that low-liquidity firms exhibit negative investment sensitivities to liquid funds, whereas high-liquidity firms have positive sensitiv......We analyze how the liquidity of real and financial assets affects corporate investment. The trade-off between liquidation costs and underinvestment costs implies that low-liquidity firms exhibit negative investment sensitivities to liquid funds, whereas high-liquidity firms have positive...... sensitivities. If real assets are not divisible in liquidation, firms with high financial liquidity optimally avoid external financing and instead cut new investment. If real assets are divisible, firms use external financing, which implies a lower sensitivity. In addition, asset redeployability decreases...... the investment sensitivity. Our findings demonstrate that asset liquidity is an important determinant of corporate investment....

Timing of adoption of clean technologies by regulated monopolies

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Youssef Slim Ben

2015-01-01

Full Text Available We consider a monopoly firm producing a good and, at the same time, polluting and using fossil energy. By incurring an investment cost, this firm can adopt a lower production cost clean technology using renewable energy. We determine the optimal adoption date for the firm in the case where it is not regulated at all and in the case where it is regulated at each period. Interestingly, the regulated firm adopts the clean technology earlier than what is socially optimal, as opposed to the nonregulated firm. The regulator can induce the firm to adopt the clean technology at the socially optimal date by a postpone adoption subsidy. Nevertheless, the regulator may be interested in the earlier adoption of the firm to encourage the diffusion of the use of clean technologies in other industries.

The Analysis of a Deviation of Investment and Corporate Governance

OpenAIRE

Shoichi Hisa

2008-01-01

Investment of firms is affected by not only fundamentals factors, but liquidity constraint, ownership or corporate structure. Information structure between manager and owner is a significant factor to decide the level of investment, and deviation of investment from optimal condition. The reputation model between manager and owner suggest that the separate of ownership and management may induce the deviation of investment, and indicate that governance structure is important to reduce it. In th...

Technology Assessment in Support of the Presidential Vision for Space Exploration

Science.gov (United States)

Weisbin, Charles R.; Lincoln, William; Mrozinski, Joe; Hua, Hook; Merida, Sofia; Shelton, Kacie; Adumitroaie, Virgil; Derleth, Jason; Silberg, Robert

2006-01-01

This paper discusses the process and results of technology assessment in support of the United States Vision for Space Exploration of the Moon, Mars and Beyond. The paper begins by reviewing the Presidential Vision: a major endeavor in building systems of systems. It discusses why we wish to return to the Moon, and the exploration architecture for getting there safely, sustaining a presence, and safely returning. Next, a methodology for optimal technology investment is proposed with discussion of inputs including a capability hierarchy, mission importance weightings, available resource profiles as a function of time, likelihoods of development success, and an objective function. A temporal optimization formulation is offered, and the investment recommendations presented along with sensitivity analyses. Key questions addressed are sensitivity of budget allocations to cost uncertainties, reduction in available budget levels, and shifting funding within constraints imposed by mission timeline.

Environmental Concerns, Environmental Policy and Green Investment.

Science.gov (United States)

Gao, Xuexian; Zheng, Haidong

2017-12-13

Environmental regulators often use environmental policy to induce green investment by firms. However, if an environmental policy fails to exert a long-run effect on regulating the economic agents' behavior, it may be more reasonable to think of the firm as the leader in the game, since the investment in green technology is usually a strategic decision. In this paper, we consider a three-stage Stackelberg game to address the interaction between a profit-maximizing firm (Stackelberg leader) facing emission-dependent demand, and the environmental regulator (Stackelberg follower). The firm decides on the green technology level in the first stage of the game based on its understanding of the regulator's profits function, especially an environmental concern that is introduced as an exogenous variable. In the current research, we show that high levels of the regulator's environmental concerns do not necessarily lead to the choice of green technology by the firm, and green investment level depends on the combined effects of the market and operational factors for a given level of the regulator's environmental concerns. The result also shows that increasing environmental awareness amongst the consumers is an effective way to drive the firm's green investment.

Investment risks under uncertain climate change policy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Blyth, William; Bradley, Richard; Yang, Ming; Bunn, Derek; Clarke, Charlie; Wilson, Tom

2007-01-01

This paper describes results from a model of decision-making under uncertainty using a real options methodology, developed by the International Energy Agency (IEA). The model represents investment decisions in power generation from the perspective of a private company. The investments are subject to uncertain future climate policy, which is treated as an external risk factor over which the company has no control. The aims of this paper are to (i) quantify these regulatory risks in order to improve understanding of how policy uncertainty may affect investment behaviour by private companies and (ii) illustrate the effectiveness of the real options approach as a policy analysis tool. The study analysed firms' investment options of coal- and gas-fired power plants and carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies. Policy uncertainty is represented as an exogenous event that creates uncertainty in the carbon price. Our findings indicate that climate policy uncertainty creates a risk premium for power generation investments. In the case of gas- and coal-fired power generation, the risk premium would lead to an increase in electricity prices of 5-10% in order to stimulate investment. In the case of CCS, the risk premium would increase the carbon price required to stimulate investment by 16-37% compared to a situation of perfect certainty. The option to retrofit CCS acts as a hedge against high future carbon prices, and could accelerate investment in coal plant. This paper concludes that to minimise investment risks in low carbon technologies, policy-makers should aim to provide some long-term regulatory certainty. (author)

Transaction fees and optimal rebalancing in the growth-optimal portfolio

Science.gov (United States)

Feng, Yu; Medo, Matúš; Zhang, Liang; Zhang, Yi-Cheng

2011-05-01

The growth-optimal portfolio optimization strategy pioneered by Kelly is based on constant portfolio rebalancing which makes it sensitive to transaction fees. We examine the effect of fees on an example of a risky asset with a binary return distribution and show that the fees may give rise to an optimal period of portfolio rebalancing. The optimal period is found analytically in the case of lognormal returns. This result is consequently generalized and numerically verified for broad return distributions and returns generated by a GARCH process. Finally we study the case when investment is rebalanced only partially and show that this strategy can improve the investment long-term growth rate more than optimization of the rebalancing period.

Optimal Smooth Consumption and Annuity Design

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bruhn, Kenneth; Steffensen, Mogens

2013-01-01

We propose an optimization criterion that yields extraordinary consumption smoothing compared to the well known results of the life-cycle model. Under this criterion we solve the related consumption and investment optimization problem faced by individuals with preferences for intertemporal stabil...... stability in consumption. We find that the consumption and investment patterns demanded under the optimization criterion is in general offered as annuity benefits from products in the class of ‘Formula Based Smoothed Investment-Linked Annuities’....

Employee Perception of the Impact of Information Technology Investment in Organisations: a survey of the hotel industry

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bruce Lo

2000-05-01

Full Text Available To improve their operational efficiency and to maintain their competitiveness in the market place many organisations continue to invest substantially in their Information Technology (IT capability. But how do the employees themselves view the impact and the value of IT investment? This paper considers this question in the context of the hospitality industry. More specifically, it investigates the different perception of hotel employees on the impact of organisational IT investment on (a IT usage by employees, (b employee satisfaction with the IT systems, (c changes in the level of employee performance, and (d organisational performance of the hotel. 945 hotel employees in Bali, Indonesia were surveyed to assess their perception of the organisational impact of IT. Factor analysis, analysis of variance and regression analysis were performed on the data to examine the' range of employee viewpoints. Results showed that there were significant differences among the employees' perception with respect to age, educational level, position in the hotel, and individual income. These findings suggest that even senior management may regard the investment in IT is worthwhile, there may be a divergence of opinion among the employees as to what are the real benefits of IT. In order to fully leverage the potential of their IT investment, managers should pay particular attention to shaping the views of the employees who ultimately determine whether the IT capabilities in an organisation are put to use.

THE IMPACT OF THE ECONOMIC CRISIS ON FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT IN ROMANIA

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

CIURLĂU LOREDANA

2014-05-01

Full Text Available Foreign Direct Investment (FDI bring an essential contribution to economic growth. They create jobs, optimize the allocation of resources, technology transfer and stimulate trade. Doing business in Romania needs friendly taxation and economic freedom for entrepreneurs, including to foreign investors, creating a favourable economic environment framework by promoting conditions conducive to attracting foreign investors, such as: fair treatment, fair and non-discriminatory manner; protection from illegal situated between kilometeres; the appeal directly to international arbitration, as well as the transformation of Romania into an attractive environment in terms of taxation.

Technology transfers, foreign investment and productivity spillovers

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Newman, Carol; Rand, John; Talbot, Theodore Purdendu

2015-01-01

This paper explores the relationship between foreign direct investment (FDI) and the productivity of host country domestic firms. We rely on a specially designed survey of over 4000 manufacturing firms in Vietnam, and separate out productivity gains along the supply chain (obtained through direct...

Thermo-economic optimization of Regenerative Organic Rankine Cycle for waste heat recovery applications

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Imran, Muhammad; Park, Byung Sik; Kim, Hyouck Ju; Lee, Dong Hyun; Usman, Muhammad; Heo, Manki

2014-01-01

Highlights: • Thermo-economic optimization of regenerative ORC is performed. • Optimization is performed using multi objective genetic algorithm. • Objective function is maximum cycle efficiency and minimum specific investment. • Evaporation pressure, pinch point and superheat are decision variables. • Sensitivity analysis is performed to investigate effect of decision variables. - Abstract: Organic Rankine Cycle (ORC) is low grade and waste heat conversion technology. The current article deal with the thermo-economic optimization of basic ORC and regenerative ORC for waste heat recovery applications under constant heat source condition. Thermal efficiency and specific investment cost of basic ORC, single stage regenerative and double stage regenerative ORC has been optimized by using Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm-II (NSGA-II). Maximum thermal efficiency and minimum specific investment cost were selected as objective functions and relative increase in thermal efficiency and cost has been analyzed taking the basic ORC as base case. The constraint set consist of evaporation pressure, superheat, pinch point temperature difference in evaporator and condenser. The optimization was performed for five different working fluids. The optimization result show that R245fa is best working under considered conditions and basic ORC has low specific investment cost and thermal efficiency compared to regenerative ORC. R245fa is low boiling organic fluid, which has high degree of thermal stability and compatible with common construction materials of ORC. The average increase in thermal efficiency from basic ORC to single stage regenerative ORC was 1.01% with an additional cost of 187 $/kW while from basic ORC to double stage regenerative ORC was 1.45% with an average increase in cost of 297 $/kW. The sensitivity analysis was also performed to investigate the effect of operating conditions which show that evaporation pressure has promising effect on thermal

The place of foreign direct investment in the global economy