OPEN MARKETING - A SPECIFIC FORM OF MONETARY POLICY IN ORDER TO MONETARY VOLUME ADJUSTMENT

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CHIRTOC IRINA- ELENA

2013-02-01

Full Text Available : Applying a uniform monetary policy by all European Union member states also require harmonization of monetary policy instruments and national interbank market integration also. Monetary policy instruments used by NBR (National Bank of Romania have evolved over time as a result of alignment with the instruments used by the European Central Bank. Money market operations in Romania have appeared for the first time in 1997. Starting from the wishing of Central Bank to reduce excess liquidity in 2001 they became the most important monetary policy tool used by the National Bank of Rumania. Open market operations are the instrument of monetary policy, central banking in Eastern Europe to work towards monetary contraction or expansion. Open-market operations in recent years have become the most important monetary policy instrument they play an essential role in promoting monetary policy by the central bank. Through open marketing operations the monetary authorities aim to alter bank reserves and thereby influence the amount of currency in circulation. In Romania, the open marketing operations are initiated by the National Bank of Romania, which determines what type of tools will be used while setting terms and conditions of the implementation. Through the use and control of monetary policy instruments, the central bank as the state bank seeks managing liquidity in the economy.

The interaction of fiscal and monetary policy in a monetary union : Balancing credibility and flexibility

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Beetsma, R.M.W.J.; Bovenberg, A.L.

1995-01-01

This paper explores how decentralized, national fiscal policies interact with a common monetary policy in a monetary union. We show that fiscal policy plays a more important ro le in stabilizing country-specific shocks than with national monetary policies. Whereas monetary u nification with an

Monetary Policy Committee and Monetary Policy Conduct in Nigeria: A Preliminary Investigation

OpenAIRE

Ekor, Maxwell; Saka, Jimoh; Adeniyi, Oluwatosin

2014-01-01

The study provides an incisive but preliminary investigation into the activities of the monetary policy committee of the central bank of Nigeria and the implications for monetary policy, using the standard deviation measure of volatility and the ordinary least square method. The findings show that the ‘internal’ members and majority of the ‘external’ members have different preferences as shown in the voting patterns. Also, there has been reduction in inflation, money and stock markets vola...

Leverage, monetary policy, and firm investment

OpenAIRE

Charles X. Hu

1999-01-01

In this paper, I investigate whether the effects of monetary policy on firm investment can be transmitted through leverage. I find that monetary contractions reduce the growth of investment more for highly leveraged firms than for less leveraged firms. The results suggest that the board credit channel for monetary policy exists, and that it can operate through leverage, as adverse monetary shocks aggravate real debt burdens and raise the effective costs of investment.

Monetary policy and insolvency of economic sector

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Tepavac Rajko

2012-03-01

Full Text Available The main task of monetary policy of our central bank is to achieve and preserve stability of prices and currency. Targeted inflation rate has been chosen as operating instrument for gradual realization of low and stable inflation, along with elimination of inflation expectations. Also, a specific inflation corridor is chosen to ensure operations, transparency and ex ante effects of monetary policy. The paper presents analysis on whether there really is a restrictive monetary policy, deflections of real inflation from the programmed one, level of 'restrictiveness' of monetary policy and behavior of bank loans, money supply, nominal and real economic growth. Analysis is carried out and criticism of concepts of monetary regulation of mandatory bank reserves, blocking of financial bank potential through monetary regulation instruments, but also relations between central and business banks through open market policy. Criticism of repo operations and complete disappearance of selective credit policy is provided as well. The problem of almost embedded insolvency of economic sector is highlighted.

MONETARY POLICY AND PARALLEL FINANCIAL MARKETS

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Adela IONESCU

2015-07-01

Full Text Available Monetary policy is one of the economic policy "tools" through which it acts on the currency demand and supply in the economy. The importance of monetary policy results from its primary objective - price stability, plus limiting inflation and maintaining internal and external value of the currency. Responsibility for achieving these objectives rests with the Central Bank, which has a monopoly in the formulation and the implementation of monetary policy targets. Price stability is the primary objective of monetary policy and also the central objective of economic policy, alongside with: sustainable economic growth, full employment of labor force, balance of external payments equilibrium. To achieve these overall objectives of economic policy, monetary policy acts through currency as an instrument of action and it represents the overall action exercised by the monetary authority to influence economic development and to ensure price stability. In economic processes numerous factors emerge to the sale or purchase of capital available for a shorter or longer period and to achieving their aspirations of maximize capital gains, they are negotiating, they are confronting and agreeing within specific market relationships. The entirety of relations between various economic issues, enterprises and individuals, between them and the banking intermediaries, as well as the relationship between banks and other credit institutions on the transfer of cash money as specific form of debt and fructification of capital, form capital markets or credit markets. These markets are carved up according to the nature and purposes of the participants.

CONSIDERATIONS REGARDING MONETARY POLICY IN ROMANIA

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Pitorac Ruxandra

2015-07-01

Full Text Available The main objective of this paper is to study the Romania’s monetary policy, in the period 1996-2013. The research starts with a theoretical review of the monetary policy, whose main purpose is influencing the broad money supply and the lending requirements and the institution in charge of achieving this objective is the Central Bank, highlighting its impact upon the economic activity, through the Keynesian analysis model IS-LM and a correlation between the monetary policy measures and the phases of the economic cycle whose results indicate that during the recession periods it is recommended to reduce interest rates in order to stimulate investments, by raising the money supply, and during the expansion period it is recommended to increase the interest rate in order to cut back the money supply. Starting from this premises, the research takes into account the study of the monetary policy measures adopted by the governmental authority of Romania, making a quantitative analysis of the main macroeconomic indicators: the real interest rate, the lending interest rate, the deposit interest rate and the broad money supply and through a multifactorial regression, highlighting the impact of the interest rates upon the monetary aggregate M2. Moreover, a comparison between the monetary policy measures adopted in Romania and the monetary policies recommended by specialized literature has been done, and the results have indicated that during recession periods the attention of the governmental authorities is focused upon adopting the right measures, but during the expansion periods this doesn’t happen. The results of this research highlight the economic situation in Romania and the way in which the governmental authority intervened, through the monetary policy measures, in order to mitigate the negative effects of the cyclical fluctuations.

Monetary Policy and Financial (InStability

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Adam Koronowski

2010-06-01

Full Text Available This paper presents how monetary policy, restricted only by price stability, may easily become propitious to asset inflation and – eventually – to a financial crisis. This risk is particularly high when the financial system lacks proper regulation and effective supervision. Hasty liberalization, negligence of official oversight and „Greenspan doctrine” which refuted any activist policy promoting financial stability characterized Fed’s monetary policy under the former Fed’s governor. The paper also analyses another aspect of the linkages between monetary policy and financial crises – monetary policy reaction to financial crises. It is not surprising that it consists of cutting interest rates and bail-out of insolvent, systemically important financial institutions. Such policy, especially when run too long and changed too abruptly, not only creates moral hazards but it also sets the stage for another „search for yield” and build-up of another speculative bubble. As a result, monetary policy becomes asymmetric and pro-cyclical. Fed’s reaction to the recent crisis seems to be very much in line with this pattern typical of Fed’s policy in the past. However, this time the scale of flooding the economy with liquidity and – as a consequence – the risks of future major imbalances in the financial system are unprecedented. A general conclusion of the paper says that there can’t be a sound financial and economic system unless money itself is a scarce resource. However trivial this statement is, monetary policy of some central banks seems to miss the point.

How do monetary policy tools work? An investigation on monetary transmission mechanism in Iran

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Naser Ali Yadollahzadeh Tabari

2013-04-01

Full Text Available Monetary transmission mechanism includes some channels in which monetary policy influences on macroeconomic variables such as the output and inflation. In this study, the effect of monetary policy tools including interest rate, exchange rate and money supply on the variables of monetary policy targets including inflation and output is examined through VECM methodology over the period 1989:2-2007:2. Our findings show that in long-term, monetary supply is the most important variable influencing the price followed by the variables of output and exchange rate, respectively. Exogenous-being of interest rate indicates that this channel is underdeveloped and there is no monetary policy rule like Taylor rule in Iran's economy.

Game of Thrones: Accommodating Monetary Policies in a Monetary Union

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Dmitri Blueschke

2018-02-01

Full Text Available In this paper, we present an application of the dynamic tracking games framework to a monetary union. We use a small stylized nonlinear three-country macroeconomic model of a monetary union to analyze the interactions between fiscal (governments and monetary (common central bank policy makers, assuming different objective functions of these decision makers. Using the OPTGAME algorithm, we calculate solutions for several games: a noncooperative solution where each government and the central bank play against each other (a feedback Nash equilibrium solution, a fully-cooperative solution with all players following a joint course of action (a Pareto optimal solution and three solutions where various coalitions (subsets of the players play against coalitions of the other players in a noncooperative way. It turns out that the fully-cooperative solution yields the best results, the noncooperative solution fares worst and the coalition games lie in between, with a broad coalition of the fiscally more responsible countries and the central bank against the less thrifty countries coming closest to the Pareto optimum.

Monetary and Fiscal Policy Coordination

OpenAIRE

Hanif, Muhammad N.; Arby, Muhammad Farooq

2003-01-01

Macroeconomic policies are meant to achieve non-inflationary, stable growth. There are two major groups of policy instruments to achieve the purpose; one is related to monetary conditions and the other to fiscal conditions. Monetary instruments are employed by the central bank and fiscal instruments are employed by ministry of finance. The objectives and implications of policy measures taken by the two institutions often conflict with each other and thus call for policy coordination for effec...

A Study of Philippine Monetary and Banking Policies

OpenAIRE

Bautista, Ernesto D.

1992-01-01

This study assesses the Philippine monetary and banking policies with the view of identifying preferred policy options and features of a monetary and banking policy program supportive of overall economic growth and agro-industrial development. It describes the following: the impact of existing monetary and banking policy on short- and long-term economic development and the legislative and administrative measures required to adopt and implement such a monetary and banking policy. It also ident...

Monetary Policy Shocks and Portfolio Choice

OpenAIRE

Fratzscher, Marcel; Saborowski, Christian; Straub, Roland

2010-01-01

The paper shows that monetary policy shocks exert a substantial effect on the size and composition of capital flows and the trade balance for the United States, with a 100 basis point easing raising net capital inflows and lowering the trade balance by 1% of GDP, and explaining about 20-25% of their time variation. Monetary policy easing causes positive returns to both equities and bonds. Yet such a monetary policy easing shock also induces a shift in portfolio composition out of equities and...

Optimal Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate in a Small Open Economy with Unemployment

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Hyuk-Jae Rhee

2014-09-01

Full Text Available In this paper, we consider a small open economy under the New Keynesian model with unemployment of Gali (2011a, b to discuss the design of the monetary policy. Our findings can be summarized in three parts. First, even with the existence of unemployment, the optimal policy is to minimize variance of domestic price inflation, wage inflation, and the output gap when both domestic price and wage are sticky. Second, stabilizing unemployment rate is important in reducing the welfare loss incurred by both technology and labor supply shocks. Therefore, introducing the unemployment rate as an another argument into the Taylor-rule type interest rate rule will be welfare-enhancing. Lastly, controlling CPI inflation is the best option when the policy is not allowed to respond to unemployment rate. Once the unemployment rate is controlled, however, stabilizing power of CPI inflation-based Taylor rule is diminished.

Why monetary board: Monetary board and endogenic price flexibility

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Bašić Tamara

2004-01-01

Full Text Available The paper presents a model which proves that a unilateral exchange rate fixing, i.e. monetary board, as opposed to certain opinions, is an optimal policy since it increases flexibility of nominal prices, which is the ultimate goal of a flexible exchange rate policy. A suitable calibration of the model shows that the higher the initial price flexibility, the lower the difference needed for "utility increase" in getting the producers to switch from fixed to flexible prices. The results obtained in all cases indicate that exchange rate fixing increases price flexibility, which proves that a unilateral exchange rate fixing, i.e. monetary board, could be an optimal monetary policy.

Monetary Policy Rules in Some Transition Economies

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Mohamed El-Hodiri

2014-12-01

Full Text Available In this paper we examine the question of whither monetary rules or ad hoc monetary policies were followed during the early stages of transition and in response to the global financial crisis. We study Eastern European countries and thee CIS countries. We find that during the early of transition, both developed economies and economies in transition used the monetary base, as well as the interest rate, as the main tools for monetary policy. However, in response to the global crises, priority was given to the main objective such as containing inflation and supporting economic growth. Monetary authorities had the additional possible choice of alternative objectives, such as stabilization of nominal exchange rate and real effective exchange rate, or increase in reserves. It was found that countries mostly retained priorities of monetary policy and some of them gave a greater importance to the alternative objectives.

The Impact of the FOMC's Monetary Policy Actions on the growth of Credit Risk: the Monetary Policy - Liquidity Paradox

OpenAIRE

Kwamie Dunbar

2008-01-01

Credit risk is influenced by interest rates and market liquidity. This paper examines the direct and indirect impacts of unexpected monetary policy shifts on the growth of corporate credit risk, with the aim of quantifying the size and direction of the response. The results surprisingly indicate that monetary policy and liquidity impulses move counter to each other in their effects on credit risk ("The monetary policy-liquidity paradox"). The analysis indicates that while contractionary monet...

Money in monetary policy Information variable? Channel of monetary transmission? What is its role in Poland?

OpenAIRE

Tomasz Łyziak; Jan Przystupa; Anna Sznajderska; Ewa Wróbel

2012-01-01

The paper provides an overview of the literature on the role of monetary aggregates for conducting monetary policy and attempts to assess the role of these aggregates in the Polish monetary policy. We compare theoretical and empirical arguments which justify or undermine the need for usage of monetary aggregates by central banks, as well as arguments indicating related problems. We describe the most important areas of the discussion on the role of money in monetary policy. We present studies ...

The Monetary Policy – Restrictive or Expansive?

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Adam Szafarczyk

2007-10-01

Full Text Available The monetary policy plays an important role in macroeconomic policy of government. There is a question concerning type of this policy expansive or restrictive (easy or tidy monetary policy. Unfortunately, we have a lot of criteria. Each of them gives us other answer. So due to equitation of Irving Fisher we have dominantly expansive monetary policy. This same situation exists when we use nominal value of rediscount interest rate of central bank. Opposite result appears when we use real value of this interest rate or level of obligatory reserve. Taking under consideration liquidity on money market we know, that level of interest rate is too high.

Financial stability and monetary policy -The case of Brazil

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Benjamin M. Tabak

2013-12-01

Full Text Available This paper seeks to examine the effects of monetary policy over banks' loans growth and whether there is a bank lending channel operating in Brazil. Therefore, we employ a detailed high frequency panel data in which we include bank characteristics and ownership control. We contribute to the literature on bank lending channel by showing that during periods of loosening/tightening monetary policy, banks increase/decrease their loans. Additionally,our results illustrate that large, well-capitalized and liquid banks react differentially to the effects of monetary policy shocks. Finally, we show that the impact of monetary policy differs across state-owned, foreign and private domestic banks. These results are important for developing and conducting monetary policy.

An Historical Analysis of Monetary Policy Rules

OpenAIRE

John B. Taylor

1998-01-01

This paper examines several episodes in U.S. monetary history using the framework of an interest rate rule for monetary policy. The main finding is that a monetary policy rule in which the interest rate responds to inflation and real output more aggressively than it did in the 1960s and 1970s, or than during the time of the international gold standard, and more like the late 1980s and 1990s, is a good policy rule. Moreover, if one defines rule, then such mistakes have been associated with eit...

MONETARY POLICY AND THE INFLATION TARGETING STRATEGY

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Zina V. MARCU căs. CIORAN

2013-10-01

Full Text Available The monetary policy is a basic component of the economic policy. It has an important role in fulfilling the main objectives of the economic politics, which is: price stability, insurance of a balanced economic raise, full occupancy of human resources and the external payment balance stability insurance. Inflation is a negative thing affecting the economy both on short and long term. On short term, it erodes the purchasing power of currency and thus, it mostly affects the retirees and those with fixed incomes. On long term, inflation discourages the investments and the economic growth. The purpose of this paper consists in the revision and presentation of the specialized literature concerning the impact the monetary policy has on the main macro-economical variables, especially on inflation, in terms of influence of the monetary authority decision on economic and financial conjunction. It was found that the monetary authorities of any country can evaluate exactly the rhythm and the effects of their actions on the economy by understanding the mechanisms which the monetary policy uses to influence the economy.

Monetary Policy and Price Stability in Nigeria

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Idoko Ahmed Itodo

2017-06-01

Full Text Available Irregular price changes, with its economic consequences of market risks and uncertainties, have been one of the most challenging problems facing the Nigerian economy. Successive financial sector reforms, which seek to enhance the role of monetary policy instruments in macroeconomic management, in view of the theoretical and empirical link between monetary policy and general price level, have been implemented with less than satisfactory results. This paper examines the monetary policy in stabilizing price level in Nigeria. We employ the Vector Autoregressive (VAR model, with in-built differencing to take care of unit root in these time series data, to capture this relationship. From our findings, we discover that, money supply has no significant relationship with price level in Nigeria. This, we believe, may be due to the influence of the large informal financial sector which controls a very significant fraction of money in circulation. Thus, policy reforms that would curb the influence of the informal financial sector should be implemented in order to allow the central monetary authority to work better, and enhance the role of monetary management in Nigeria.

Monetary and fiscal policy aspects of indirect tax changes in a monetary union

OpenAIRE

von Thadden, Leopold; Lipińska, Anna

2009-01-01

In recent years a number of European countries have shifted their tax structure more strongly towards indirect taxes, motivated, inter alia, by the intention to foster competitiveness. Against this background, this paper develops a tractable two-country model of a monetary union, characterised by national fiscal and supranational monetary policy, with price-setting firms and endogenously determined terms of trade. The paper discusses a number of monetary and fiscal policy questions which emer...

Japan's approach to monetary policy

OpenAIRE

Giovanni P. Olivei

2002-01-01

The goal of monetary policy as conducted by the Bank of Japan is to contribute to the sound development of the national economy through the pursuit of price stability. The objective of price stability, however, is not precisely defined as it has been for other central banks. Following the implementation of the new Bank of Japan Law in 1998, the monetary policy framework is characterized by central bank independence, the primacy of the price stability objective, instrument independence, and po...

Optimal monetary policy rules: the problem of stability under heterogeneous learning

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Bogomolova, Anna; Kolyuzhnov, Dmitri

-, č. 379 (2008), s. 1-34 ISSN 1211-3298 R&D Projects: GA MŠk LC542 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z70850503 Keywords : monetary policy rules * New Keynesian model * adaptive learning Subject RIV: AH - Economics http://www.cerge-ei.cz/pdf/wp/Wp379.pdf

THE MONETARY POLICY TRANSMISSION MECHANISM THROUGH INTEREST RATE. EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS: ROMANIA

OpenAIRE

Gabriel Bistriceanu

2008-01-01

Understanding monetary policy transmission is necessary to moentary policy projection and implementation of monetary policy in a efficient manner. I consider that interest rate monetary policy mechanism is very important because the interest rate is now the main instrument used by the majority of central banks in the world in taking monetary policy decissions and by all central banks wich have inflation targeting strategy. In this paper, I analysed monetary policy transmission mechanism throu...

The Realization Mechanism of China's Monetary Policy Objectives: 2001-2010

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

Wang Guogang

2013-01-01

This article explores the realization mechanism for the final and interim targets of China's monetary policy from 2001 to 2010.It finds that the three significant price surges in the ten years were not the results of loose monetary policy While maintaining rapid economic growth,China avoided the inflation linked with excess monetary supply.The introduction of total new lending in the interim targets also showed the maturing of China's monetary policy target system.To improve China's monetary operation,three measures need to te taken:firstly,basing stabilizing monetary policy on the trend of the non-food price index within the CPI;secondly,readjusting the definition of money according the different characteristics of transaction money and reserve money;and thirdly,including yuan exchange rates into the intermediate objectives of monetary policy.

MONETARY POLICY AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT: LESSONS ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

promote monetary stability and a sound financial system in Nigeria under the overall ... default in the money market and, (iv) Excessive borrowing for speculative ..... Crookett, A. (1979): Monetary Theory, Policy and Institutions, Thomas Nelson ...

Monetary policy, bank size and bank lending: Evidence from Australia

OpenAIRE

Liu, Luke

2011-01-01

The transmission of monetary policy may hold the key to explaining the effects of policy on the economy. The objective of the study is to assess the importance of the bank lending channel in the transmission of monetary policy in Australia. In this paper, we found that the effectiveness of monetary policy varies with the size of the bank as well as the type of the loan. For different asset size and different kinds of loans, the effect of monetary policy is different. Thus, policy has distribu...

Expectations, Bond Yields and Monetary Policy

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Chun, Albert Lee

2011-01-01

expectations about inflation, output growth, and the anticipated path of monetary policy actions contain important information for explaining movements in bond yields. Estimates from a forward-looking monetary policy rule suggest that the central bank exhibits a preemptive response to inflationary expectations...... of this type may provide traders and policymakers with a new set of tools for formally assessing the reaction of bond yields to shifts in market expectations...

EFFECTS OF MONETARY POLICY IN ROMANIA - A VAR APPROACH

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Iulian Popescu

2012-10-01

Full Text Available Understanding how monetary policy decisions affect inflation and other economic variables is particularly important. In this paper we consider the implications of monetary policy under the inflation targeting regime in Romania, based on an autoregressive vector method including recursive VAR and structural VAR (SVAR. Therefore, we focus on assessing the extent and persistence of monetary policy effects on gross domestic product (GDP, price level, extended monetary aggregate (M3 and exchange rate. The main results of VAR analysis reflect a negative response of consumer price index (CPI, GDP and M3 and positive nominal exchange rate behaviour to a monetary policy shock, and also a limited impact of a short-term interest rate shock in explaining the consumer prices, production and exchange rate fluctuations.

THE REGULATION OF MONEY CIRCULATION ON THE BASIS OF USING METHODS AND INSTRUMENTS OF MONETARY POLICY

OpenAIRE

S. Mishchenko; S. Naumenkova

2013-01-01

In the article it was researched the instruments and mechanism of safeguarding stability of money market on the basis of implementing the optimal monetary policy regime. It was determined the main directions of appliance the monetary policy methods and instruments to guiding money market stability and it was also investigated the influence of transmission mechanism on providing the soundness of money circulations.

Monetary and Fiscal Policy Interactions and Limitations: The Need ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Lwati: A Journal of Contemporary Research ... This 'divorce' of monetary and debt management functions calls for the need for effective coordination of monetary and fiscal policy if overall economic ... Therefore an appropriate combination of monetary and fiscal policy mix is crucial for macroeconomic management.

THE REGULATION OF MONEY CIRCULATION ON THE BASIS OF USING METHODS AND INSTRUMENTS OF MONETARY POLICY

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S. Mishchenko

2013-05-01

Full Text Available In the article it was researched the instruments and mechanism of safeguarding stability of money market on the basis of implementing the optimal monetary policy regime. It was determined the main directions of appliance the monetary policy methods and instruments to guiding money market stability and it was also investigated the influence of transmission mechanism on providing the soundness of money circulations.

Currency Crises and Monetary Policy in an Economy with Credit Constraints

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bergman, Ulf Michael; Hassan, Shakill

This paper revisits the currency crises model of Aghion, Bacchetta and Banerjee (2000, 2001, 2004), who show that if there exist nominal price rigidities and private sector credit constraints, and the credit multiplier depends on real interest rates, then the optimal monetary policy response...

The role of forecasts in monetary policy

OpenAIRE

Jeffery D. Amato; Thomas Laubach

2000-01-01

Forecasts of future economic developments play an important role for the monetary policy decisions of central banks. For example, forecasts of goal variables can help central banks achieve their goals and make them more accountable to the public. There are two primary explanations for the benefits of forecasts. The first is that monetary policy affects goal variables such as inflation and output only with substantial lags. Policy actions should, therefore, be based on forecasts of goal variab...

The role of EU institutions in implementing its monetary policy

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Emilia GEORGIEVA

2011-06-01

Full Text Available The main goal of the current article is to illustrate in detail the powers of the EU institutions to implement its monetary policy. The methods used to explore the topic and to draw the conclusions and interpret the findings are based on deduction and induction. On the grounds of the information presented in the article the following conclusions have been drawn: the relations between the EU institutions responsible for implementing its monetary policy (the European Central Bank, the European Parliament, the Council, the European Commission and others are entirely based on fundamental principles laid down for all its institutions; the commitments of the institutions implementing the EU monetary policy are strictly stipulated in its primary legislation and are mostly related to the establishment of the EU Economic and Monetary Union, the framing, planning and implementing of the common monetary policy, the management of the Monetary Union. In the conditions of world financial and economic crisis the EU has attempted to respond adequately to its monetary policy problems, commensurate with the scope and matching the specific nature of this crisis.

Monetary policy rules for convergence to the Euro

OpenAIRE

Orlowski, Lucjan T.

2008-01-01

This paper aims to devise a monetary policy instrument rule that is suitable for open economies undergoing monetary convergence to a common currency area. The open-economy convergence-consistent Taylor rule is forward-looking, consistent with monetary framework based on inflation targeting, containing input variables that are relative to the corresponding variables in the common currency area. The policy rule is tested empirically for three inflation targeting countries converging to the euro...

Korea's Post-Crisis Monetary Policy Reforms

OpenAIRE

Donghyun Park; Junggun Oh

2005-01-01

Korea's financial crisis of 1997–1998 was brought about by the unsustainable combination of large capital inflows and an inefficient financial system. The Bank of Korea contributed to the crisis primarily through its failures as the regulator of the financial system rather than as the conductor of monetary policy. Our paper explores the role of the two major monetary policy reforms Korea has implemented in response to the crisis — the establishment of a new financial regulator and the adoptio...

The International Impact of US Unconventional Monetary Policy

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lutz, Chandler

2015-01-01

Using a structural factor-augmented vector autoregression model and a large data set of daily time series, we study the impact of US unconventional monetary policy on British and German financial markets. Our findings indicate that a surprise US unconventional monetary policy easing leads...

Some considerations on using monetary policy to promote financial stability

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Petria, N.

2010-12-01

Full Text Available The current period of crisis on credit markets has highlighted the crucial role of the behaviour of banks in the transmission mechanism of monetary policy. This paper summarises our considerations on how monetary policy, as the main instrument, acts in order to promote financial stability and to stabilize the banking system. Central banks have a variety of tools for implementing monetary policy, but the tool that has received the most attention in literature is the interest rate. We observe that the financial crisis that erupted in the summer of 2007 has refocused attention on other channels of monetary policy, notably the transmission of policy through the supply of credit and overall conditions in the capital markets. Monetary policy has important macroeconomic effects only to the extent that it moves financial market prices that really matter—like long-term interest rates, stock market values, and exchange rates.

The Adoption of Indirect Instruments of Monetary Policy

OpenAIRE

Tomás J. T. Baliño; Charles Enoch; William E. Alexander

1995-01-01

This paper examines the experience of implementing indirect instruments of monetary policy. The experiences of country studies illustrate the variety of circumstances under which indirect instruments of monetary policy have been introduced. Case Studies are presented for Chile, Egypt, Ghana, Indonesia, Mexico, New Zealand, and Poland.

Macroeconomic Activity and Monetary Policy Actions: Some Preliminary Evidence.

OpenAIRE

Haslag, Joseph H; Hein, Scott E

1992-01-01

Monetary policy is conducted through open market operations, loans at the discount window, and changes in the reserve requirement structure. The purpose of this paper is to formally investigate the notion that the effect of changes in reserve requirement ratios is different from the effect of other policy tools. This is accomplished by decomposing the monetary base into those changes caused by changes in reserve requirement ratios and those caused by other monetary policy actions. Some prelim...

Monetary policy implications of financial innovation: In-depth analysis

OpenAIRE

Bernoth, Kerstin; Gebauer, Stefan; Schäfer, Dorothea

2017-01-01

In this policy brief, we argue that the financial innovations triggered by the FinTech industry have the potential to affect the transmission of monetary policy as well as the informational content of important monetary indicators. The growing FinTech industry could contribute substantially to the emergence of nonbank finance as a substitute for traditional commercial bank finance. While the overall effect of nonbank finance on monetary policy transmission is not yet clear, we argue that regu...

Conquering Credibility for Monetary Policy Under Sticky Confidence

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Jaylson Jair da Silveira

2015-06-01

Full Text Available We derive a best-reply monetary policy when the confidence by price setters on the monetary authority’s commitment to price level targeting may be both incomplete and sticky. We find that complete confidence (or full credibility is not a necessary condition for the achievement of a price level target even when heterogeneity in firms’ price level expectations is endogenously time-varying and may emerge as a long-run equilibrium outcome. In fact, in the absence of exogenous perturbations to the dynamic of confidence building, it is the achievement of a price level target for long enough that, due to stickiness in the state of confidence, rather ensures the conquering of full credibility. This result has relevant implications for the conduct of monetary policy in pursuit of price stability. One implication is that setting a price level target matters more as a means to provide monetary policy with a sharper focus on price stability than as a device to conquer credibility. As regards the conquering of credibility for monetary policy, it turns out that actions speak louder than words, as the continuing achievement of price stability is what ultimately performs better as a confidence-building device.

THE INFLUENCES OF INFLATION ON THE MONETARY POLICY INTEREST

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Popa Coralia Emilia

2012-12-01

Full Text Available In the context of sovereign debt crisis in Europe, a crisis entirely felt also in the direct relation between credit institutions, the National Bank of Romania (NBR adopted a monetary policy strategy meant to determine the reinforcement of its image, by initiating in the autumn of 2011 a new series of reduction of the monetary policy interest rate and implicitly the appropriate resizing of liquidity conditions. By increasing the role of liquidity adjustment, the European Central Bank (ECB succeeded to determine in the money market the decrease of interbank rate interests under the interest rate level of monetary policy. The direct inflation targeting strategy used by the European Central Bank in applying its monetary policy has the first criterion of implementation the expression of inflation target in terms of „headline inflation” (consumer price index - CPI given that the economic market in Romania is familiar with this indicator. Also, the main criterion considered by the investment segment of the market to achieve capital infusions in economic transactions is represented by the consumer price index, this one ensuring the necessary transparency related to the effects of inflation phenomenon. A strong argument supporting the use of consumer price index in monetary policy is represented by its upward flexibility towards the limited effectiveness of monetary aggregates in sizing inflationary anticipations. The downward slope of inflation phenomenon, in whose depreciation the evolution of consumer price index, whose positive trend surprised the European Central Bank, played a significant role, determined adjustments in the monetary policy strategy of the National Bank of Romania and at the same time the achievement of the inflationary target proposed with a direct effect on the monetary policy interest rate. The same measure to reduce the key interest rate is outlined in the monetary policy of the European Central Bank and it is

The monetary policy of the European Central Bank in modern conditions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kavitskaya Irina, L.

2015-12-01

Full Text Available The paper presents the monetary policy analysis of the European Central Bank (ECB under the present crisis conditions. The paper systematizes the ECB monetary policy in today's crisis and researches it at different stages of the crisis. A detailed analysis showed that the ECB's monetary policy is significantly different from the actions of other central banks during the current crisis (for example, the Federal Reserve. Thus, the ECB unconventional monetary policy combined with traditional measures, but does not replace them. Often ECB use credit easing instead of quantitative easing. The ECB's monetary policy used not only to combat the financial crisis, such as the Fed, but also to deal with the debt crisis. These features of the ECB’s monetary policy were due to both the institutional characteristics of the European Union, as well as special conditions of flow of the financial crisis in the euro zone.

Amplification Effects and Unconventional Monetary Policies

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Cécile BASTIDON GILLES

2012-02-01

Full Text Available Global financial crises trigger off amplification effects, which allow relatively small shocks to propagate through the whole financial system. For this reason, the range of Central banks policies is now widening beyond conventional monetary policies and lending of last resort. The aim of this paper is to establish a rule for this practice. The model is based on the formalization of funding conditions in various types of markets. We conduct a comprehensive analysis of the “unconventional monetary policies”, and especially quantify government bonds purchases by the Central bank.

Inflation Targeting as the Monetary Policy Framework: Bangladesh Perspective

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Mohammed SAIFUL ISLAM

2011-06-01

Full Text Available Inflation targeting strategy has become a widely accepted monetary policy framework in many countries all over the world. Our study finds that the central bank of Bangladesh is neither inflation targeting nor does follow any other rule-guided monetary policy, rather the policy is formulated with substantial discretion under the guidelines of donor agencies. This paper provides the evidence that monetary sector of Bangladesh economy has gained considerable degree of maturity and fulfils a number of prerequisites to adopt inflation targeting strategy. Using data over 1980-2010 we estimate an error correction model in order to examine if interest rate policy could fight the inflation. This is evident that deviation in inflation from target can be corrected via the changes in interest rate. Empirical findings jointly with few descriptive statistics provide strong evidence to recommend inflation targeting as the monetary policy strategy for Bangladesh.

MONETARY POLICY FORCE EFFECT BY MEANS OF BANKS MONEY CREATION

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Victoria COCIUG

2014-07-01

Full Text Available In the context of modern economy, banks play an essential role for sustainable growth, by ensuring economy with financial resources and driving impulses of monetary policy to economy. Monetary authorities influence significantly the bank's ability to fulfill this role. Thus, to achieve macroeconomic objectives, there is promoted particular monetary policy and are implemented various practical regulations for banks. In this article, we want to identify the existing relationship between monetary policy followed by the authorities and the ability of banks to create money with its impact on various practical regulations.

Taylor rule and EMU Monetary Policy Determination and ECB's Preferences

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Svatopluk Kapounek

2006-01-01

Full Text Available The aim of the article is to evaluate the preferences of the ECB in monetary policy and to compare them with preferences of the central banks of new EU member countries from Central and Eastern Europe. The ECB's responsibility for the primary objective (price stability often contrasts with the requirement for economic growth stabilization policy from the national governments. There are doubts if the current members of Eurozone constitute an optimum currency area (the Eurozone 12 is recently the combination of rapidly growing and slow-growing - low inflationary countries. The differences between the countries will even expand during the European monetary union enlargement by new EU member countries. Consequently the probability of asymmetric shocks will increase. The main question is the ability of ECB to fulfill the needs of all EMU member countries in terms of optimal monetary policy. In the first part the authors analyze differences between the preferences of the ECB and national authorities (governments. The negative experiences of Ireland, Italy and other EMU members with current status quo help us to understand fear of future member countries from possible impact of common monetary policy on their national economies. The second part of the paper deals with interest rates determination by ECB and compares it with expectations (requirements from EMU member and EMU candidate countries. The main contribution of the article may be seen in central bank's preferences analyses – the preferences are defined as the parameters in Taylor rule (the weights given by ECB and national authorities to the price stability and economic growth stimulation. The hypothesis is defined as following: are the preferences of ECB in line with the preferences of national central banks of EMU candidate countries? The empirical analysis is based on the Taylor rule decomposition. The hypothesis is tested by regression analysis. Time series regression model uses relations

MONETARY POLICY ADJUSTMENT AT THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS CONSTRAINTS

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Adina Criste

2014-12-01

Full Text Available The global financial crisis marked a border for central banks, as it raised challenges which constrained them both to extend the range of monetary policy instruments and to redefine their role in the financial system. The present paper aims to identify features of conducting the monetary policy of some central banks, during and after the global financial crisis outbreak. For that purpose, we apply to a comparative analysis between some central banks of European Union (EU, namely Czech National Bank (CNB, National Bank of Hungary (NBH, National Bank of Poland (NBP and National Bank of Romania (NBR. We also assume that the monetary policy could be characterised through both the challenges faced by the central banks and the type of measures adopted, as a reaction to these challenges. Analysis shows that central banks have different levels of burden, according to domestic condition, and also different ”pattern” of monetary policy adjustments, using more or less unconventional or macro-prudential measures. An important conclusion raised from this article refers to the increasing role of these special measures for central banks, which requires defining a new monetary policy framework in the near future.

An oil demand and supply model incorporating monetary policy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Askari, Hossein; Krichene, Noureddine

2010-01-01

Oil price inflation may have had a significant role in pushing the world economy into its worst post-war recession during 2008-2009. Reserve currency central banks pursued an overly expansionary monetary policy during 2001-2009, in the form of low or negative real interest rates and accompanied by a rapidly falling US dollar, while paying inadequate attention to the destabilizing effects on oil markets. In this paper, we show that monetary policy variables, namely key interest rates and the US dollar exchange rate, had a powerful effect on oil markets. World oil demand was significantly influenced by interest and dollar exchange rates, while oil supply was rigid. Oil demand and supply have very low price elasticity and this characteristic makes oil prices highly volatile and subject to wider fluctuations than the prices of other commodities. Aggressive monetary policy would stimulate oil demand, however, it would be met with rigid oil supply and would turn inflationary and disruptive to economic growth if there was little excess capacity in oil output. We argue that a measure of stability in oil markets cannot be achieved unless monetary policy is restrained and real interest rates become significantly positive. Monetary tightening during 1979-1982 might imply that monetary policy has to be restrained for a long period and with high interest rates in order to bring stability back to oil markets. (author)

Monetary and Fiscal Policies for a Finite Planet

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Adam Scanlan

2013-06-01

Full Text Available Current macroeconomic policy promotes continuous economic growth. Unemployment, poverty and debt are associated with insufficient growth. Economic activity depends upon the transformation of natural materials, ultimately returning to the environment as waste. Current levels of economic throughput exceed the planet’s carrying capacity. As a result of poorly constructed economic institutions, society faces the unacceptable choice between ecological catastrophe and human misery. A transition to a steady-state economy is required, characterized by a rate of throughput compatible with planetary boundaries. This paper contributes to the development of a steady-state economy by addressing US monetary and fiscal policies. A steady-state monetary policy would support counter-cyclical, debt-free vertical money creation through the public sector, in ways that contribute to sustainable well-being. The implication for a steady-state fiscal policy is that any lending or spending requires a careful balance of recovery of money, not as a means of revenue, but as an economic imperative to meet monetary policy goals. A steady-state fiscal policy would prioritize targeted public goods investments, taxation of ecological “bads” and economic rent and implementation of progressive tax structures. Institutional innovations are considered, including common asset trusts, to regulate throughput, and a public monetary trust, to strictly regulate money supply.

Optimal Policy in OG Models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ghiglino, Christian; Tvede, Mich

for generations, through fiscal policy, i.e. monetary transfers and taxes. Both situations with and without time discounting are considered. It is shown that if the discount factor is suffciently close to one then the optimal policy stabilizes the economy, i.e. the equilibrium path has the turnpike property...

Optimal Policy in OG Models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ghiglino, Christian; Tvede, Mich

2000-01-01

for generations, through fiscal policy, i.e., monetary transfers and taxes. Situations both with and without time discounting are considered. It is shown that if the discount factor is sufficiently close to one then the optimal policy stabilizes the economy, i.e. the equilibrium path has the turnpike property...

Impact of Monetary Policy and Fiscal Policy on Indonesian Stock Market

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Rossanto Dwi HANDOYO

2015-05-01

Full Text Available This paper attempts to investigate the effect of fiscal and monetary policy on Indonesian Stock price as well as main sectors stock price such as agricultural, mining, manufacture, and financial sector indexes. We consider the world oil price as a foreign variable that will influence domestic economy as in regular small open economy model. In this paper, we employ the Monte Carlo algorithm to Near-SVAR models (If some of the VAR equations have regressors not included in the others. We find that there is a positive stock price response to monetary policy shock both aggregated and sectoral stock price. In term of interaction between fiscal policy shock and stock market, we find that all sectors respond negative relationship. From this empirical finding, fiscal policy crowd out private sector activity in market, thus, its effect will be impotent in economy. We also provide the evidence that not only both policies are able to influence the stock price individually, but also the interaction between monetary and fiscal policy is important in explaining stock market performance.

The Impact of Conventional and Unconventional Monetary Policy on Investor Sentiment

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lutz, Chandler

2015-01-01

This paper examines the relationship between monetary policy and investor sentiment across conventional and unconventional monetary policy regimes. During conventional times, we find that a surprise decrease in the fed funds rate leads to a large increase in investor sentiment. Similarly, when...... the fed funds rate is at its zero lower bound, research results indicate that expansionary unconventional monetary policy shocks also have a large and positive impact on investor mood. Together, our findings highlight the importance of both conventional and unconventional monetary policy...... in the determination of investor sentiment....

On the effects of monetary policy shocks in developing countries

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Magda Kandil

2014-06-01

Full Text Available Using annual data for a sample of developing countries, the time-series evidence indicates the allocation of monetary policy shocks, both expansionary and contractionary, between price inflation and output growth. Subsequently, cross-country regressions evaluate factors that underlie the difference in these allocations and their implications. The real effects of monetary shocks increase as the elasticity of aggregate demand increases with respect to monetary shocks. Nonetheless, capacity constraints hamper the output adjustment to monetary shocks and increase price inflation. Across countries, trend output growth increases with the output response to monetary shocks. Consistent with the stabilizing function of monetary policy, the variability of output growth decreases in the face of monetary fluctuations across countries. In contrast, monetary fluctuations increase the trend and variability of price inflation across countries.

The Relative Importance of the Channels of Monetary Policy ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

importance channels of monetary policy which are working in Zambia. It answers the ... several ways through which monetary policy affect the balance sheets of economic agents and hence ... economies, especially those with flexible exchange rate regimes. ..... transmission channels work endogenously or exogenously.

The impact of monetary policy on New Zealand business cycles and inflation variability

OpenAIRE

Nathan McLellan; Robert A Buckle; Kunhong Kim

2004-01-01

This paper uses the open economy structural VAR model developed in Buckle, Kim, Kirkham, McLellan and Sharma (2002) to evaluate the impact of monetary policy on New Zealand business cycles and inflation variability and the output/inflation variability trade-off. The model includes a forward-looking Taylor Rule to identify monetary policy and the impact of monetary policy is evaluated by deriving a monetary policy index using a procedure suggested by Dungey and Pagan (2000). Monetary policy ha...

MONETARY POLICY TRANSMISSION MECHANISM AND TVP-VAR MODEL

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Andreea ROŞOIU

2013-12-01

Full Text Available The transmission of monetary policy to the economy is a subject of major importance for central banks because, by using these measures, central banks can achieve their purpose of ensuring price stability without neglecting the objective of sustainable economic growth. In order to analyze the evolution of the monetary policy transmission mechanism in Romania, a time varying structural vector autoregression model is estimated, by using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm for the posterior evolution. The conclusions of the empirical study are: both systematic and non-systematic monetary policy have changed during the investigated period of time, the systematic response of the interest rate to shocks in inflation and unemployment being faster over the recent period. Also, non-policy shocks seem more important than interest rate shocks in explaining inflation and unemployment evolution.

Essays in empirical finance and monetary policy

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van Holle, Frederiek

2017-01-01

This dissertation consists of three essays. In the first paper, “Stock-Bond Correlations, Macroeconomic Regimes and Monetary Policy”, we link the evolution of stock-bond correlations for an international sample to both local and global regimes in inflation, the output gap and monetary policy. We

Transmission Channels of Monetary Policy: A Broader View

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Lukáš Kučera

2016-08-01

Full Text Available The paper deals with a transmission mechanism of monetary policy under the regime of inflation targeting. It focuses on the expectations channel, the credit view and the cost channel. These channels work side by side and may amplify effects of the traditional view of transmission mechanisms of monetary policy, which emphasises adjustments on the demand side.

Monetary Policy: Its Impact On The Profitability Of Banks In India

OpenAIRE

Punita Rao

2011-01-01

This purpose of this study is to investigate the impact of monetary policy on the profitability of banks in the context of financial sector reforms in India. We discuss the financial sector reforms and the implication of the banks, the various instruments of monetary policy in India, and the impact of monetary policy on the profitability of banks.

The trade-off between monetary policy and bank stability

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Lamers, Martien; Mergaerts, Frederik; Meuleman, Elien; Vennet, Rudi Vander

2016-01-01

This paper investigates how monetary policy interventions by the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve affect the stock market perception of bank systemic risk. In a first step, we identify monetary policy shocks using a structural VAR approach by exploiting the changes of the volatility of

Revisiting the impacts of oil price increases on monetary policy implementation in the largest oil importers

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Nurtac Yildirim

2015-06-01

Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to test the impacts of oil price increases on monetary policy implementation in the largest oil importers. For that purpose, we estimate structural vector error correction (SVEC models to show the impacts of oil price increases on industrial production, consumer prices and immediate interest rates which are the elements of Taylor rule for the four largest oil importers (the USA, the EU, China and Japan. Our results indicate that oil price increases transmit to output and inflation and lead to fluctuations in industrial production, consumer prices and immediate interest rates which in turn influence the monetary policy stance in the following periods. The basic conclusion of research is that the channels through which oil prices affect output, inflation and interest rates should be identified by the monetary policy authorities of the USA, the EU, China and Japan. We also emphasize the importance of the determination of the optimal monetary policy framework to eliminate the negative consequences of oil price increases.

The Impact of Monetary Policy on Bank Credit During Economic Crisis: Indonesia's Experience

OpenAIRE

Mongid, Abdul

2008-01-01

The monetary policy mechanism by which monetary policy was transmitted to thereal economy had emerged as the pivotal discussion topic recently. This paper tried to discussthe impact of Bank Indonesia’s monetary policy on loan bank. By using simple loan bankframework we concluded that monetary policies were able to influence loan bank. Themonetary variables such as discount rate policy, base money and exchange rate policy werevery important in determining the banking credit. As the credit was ...

Monetary Policy, Determinancy and Learnability in the Open Economy

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bullard, J.; Schaling, E.

2005-01-01

We study how determinacy and learnability of global rational expectations equilibrium may be affected by monetary policy in a simple, two country, New Keynesian framework.The two blocks may be viewed as the U.S. and Europe, or as regions within the euro zone.We seek to understand how monetary policy

THE IMPACT OF MONETARY POLICY ON BANK CREDIT DURING ECONOMIC CRISIS: INDONESIA’S EXPERIENCE

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Abdul Mongid

2017-03-01

Full Text Available The monetary policy mechanism by which monetary policy was transmitted to thereal economy had emerged as the pivotal discussion topic recently. This paper tried to discussthe impact of Bank Indonesia’s monetary policy on loan bank. By using simple loan bankframework we concluded that monetary policies were able to influence loan bank. Themonetary variables such as discount rate policy, base money and exchange rate policy werevery important in determining the banking credit. As the credit was very important to influencesthe economic activitiy, the result provided evidence that monetary policy was important as atool to control economic activity via credit channel. The validity of this study challenged thehypotheses that monetary policy was death. However, monetary policy maker should carefullyconsider the soundness of the banking industry because it was a strategic partner for monetaryauthority to control the economic activities.

Development and Application of Econometric Models for Forecasting and Analysis of Monetary Policy Scenarios

OpenAIRE

Malugin, Vladimir; Demidenko , Mikhail; Kalechits, Dmitry; Miksjuk , Alexei; Tsukarev , Taras

2009-01-01

A system of econometric models designed for forecasting target monetary indicators as well as conducting monetary policy scenarios analysis is presented. The econometric models integrated in the system are represented in the error correction form and are interlinked by means of monetary policy instruments variables, common exogenous variables characterizing external shocks, and monetary policy target endogenous variables. Forecast accuracy estimates and monetary policy analysis results are pr...

Monetary Policy and Financial Asset Prices: Empirical Evidence from Pakistan

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Imran Umer Chhapra

2018-03-01

Full Text Available Monetary transmission mechanism assumed to be significantly influenced by the effect of policy decisions on financial markets. However, various previous studies have come up with different outcomes. The purpose of this study is to examine the impact of monetary policy on different asset classes (shares and bonds in Pakistan. This study using stock price and bond yield as dependent variable and discount rate, money supply, inflation, and exchange rate are independent variables. Data of all variables have collected from 2010 to 2016, and Vector Autoregressive (VAR technique has applied. The empirical results indicate that there is an impact of monetary policy components on both stock and bond market as an increase in policy rate causes decline in stocks prices and bonds yields. The findings of this study will help the potential investors in making long-term (in general and short-term (in particular investment strategies concerning monetary policy.DOI: 10.15408/sjie.v7i2.7099

MONETARY POLICY FORCE EFFECT BY MEANS OF BANKS MONEY CREATION

OpenAIRE

Victoria COCIUG; Olga TIMOFEI

2014-01-01

In the context of modern economy, banks play an essential role for sustainable growth, by ensuring economy with financial resources and driving impulses of monetary policy to economy. Monetary authorities influence significantly the bank's ability to fulfill this role. Thus, to achieve macroeconomic objectives, there is promoted particular monetary policy and are implemented various practical regulations for banks. In this article, we want to identify the existing relationship between monetar...

Three essays on monetary policy responses to oil price shocks

Science.gov (United States)

Plante, Michael

This dissertation contains three chapters which explore the question of how monetary policy should respond to changes in the price of oil. Each chapter explores the question from the perspective of a different economic environment. The first chapter examines welfare maximizing optimal monetary policy in a closed economy New Keynesian model that is extended to include household and firm demand for oil products, sticky wages, and capital accumulation. When households and firms demand oil products a natural difference arises between the Consumer Price Index (CPI), the core CPI, and the GDP deflator. I show that when nominal wages are flexible then the optimal policy places a heavy emphasis on stabilizing the inflation rate of the core CPI. If aggregate nominal wages are sticky then the central bank should focus on stabilizing some combination of core inflation and nominal wage inflation. Under no case examined is it optimal to stabilize either GDP deflator or CPI inflation. The second chapter examines monetary policy responses to oil price shocks in a small open economy with traded and non-traded goods. Oil and labor are used to produce the traded and non-traded goods and prices are sticky in the non-traded sector. I show analytically that the ratio of the oil and labor cost shares in the traded and non-traded sectors is crucial for determining the dynamic behavior of many macroeconomic variables after a rise in the price of oil. A policy of fixed exchange rates can produce higher or lower inflation in the non-traded sector depending upon the ratio. Likewise, a policy that stabilizes the inflation rate of prices in the non-traded sector can cause the nominal exchange rate to appreciate or depreciate. For the proper calibration, a policy that stabilizes core inflation produces results very close to the one that stabilizes non-traded inflation. Analytical results show that the fixed exchange rate always produces a unique solution. The policy of stabilizing non

MONETARY POLICY TRANSMISSION MECHANISM IN EMERGING COUNTRIES

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Andreea ROŞOIU

2013-06-01

Full Text Available The transmission channels of monetary policy are used by central banks to accomplish the main objective of price stability in the context of sustainable economic growth. The importance of interest rate and exchange rate channels for the emerging countries Romania, Poland, Czech Republic and Hungary is analyzed by using Bayesian VAR approach with Diffuse priors over 1998Q1-2012Q3. Main result of the empirical study is that both channels are effective for the monetary policy transmission mechanism in Hungary and Czech Republic. In Romania and Poland they do not exhibit puzzles, but the impact of the macroeconomic variables is not very significant and shows very high volatility. In the context of monetary integration, exchange rate channel will become irrelevant when these countries adopt Euro currency. This change will lead instead to a powerful interest rate channel.

Information and Uncertainty in the Theory of Monetary Policy

OpenAIRE

Wagner, Helmut

2007-01-01

Theory and practice of monetary policy have changed significantly over the past three decades. A very important part of today's monetary policy is management of the expectations of private market participants. Publishing and justifying the central bank's best forecast of inflation, output, and the instrument rate is argued to be the most effective way to manage those expectations.

Interdependencies Between the Capital Market and the Monetary Policy Decisions

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Claudia Guni

2010-12-01

Full Text Available The declared scope of this work is to highlight the main correlations between the monetary and the capital market, including identifying the adequate objective of monetary policy which might positively influence over the offer on the capital market. The main target of the monetary market consists in the stability of the prices. The link between monetary policy and stock market is extremely important. The stock prices are sensible to economical conditions. Moreover, these prices rapidly change, thus there is a chance for a deviation from the fundamental value, with side-effects for economy.

Interest Rate Dynamics and Monetary Policy Implementation in Switzerland

OpenAIRE

Puriya Abbassi; Dieter Nautz; Christian Offermanns

2010-01-01

The maturity of the operational target of monetary policy is a distinguishing feature of the SNB's operational framework of monetary policy. While most central banks use targets for the overnight rate to signal the policy-intended interest rate level, the SNB announces a target range for the three-month Libor. This paper investigates the working and the consequences of the SNB's unique operational framework for the behavior of Swiss money market rates before and during the financial crisis.

Did capital market convergence lower the effectiveness of monetary policy?

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Jansen, P.W.

2009-01-01

International capital market convergence reduces the ability for monetary authorities to set domestic monetary conditions. Traditionally, monetary policy transmission is channelled through the short-term interest rate. Savings and investment decisions are effected through the response of the bond

Examining the volatility of exchange rate: Does monetary policy matter?

OpenAIRE

Lim, Shu Yi; Sek, Siok Kun

2014-01-01

We conduct empirical analysis on examining the changes in exchange rate volatility under two monetary policy regimes, i.e. the pre- and post- inflation targeting (IT) regimes. In addition, we also investigate if the monetary decisions can have impacts on the volatility of exchange rate. The study is focused in four Asian countries that experienced drastic in the switch of monetary policy from the rigid exchange rate to flexible exchange rate and inflation targeting after the Asian financial c...

On the influence of institutional design on monetary policy making

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Raes, L.B.D.

2014-01-01

This thesis consists of a collection of essays on monetary policy making. These essays focus on institutional aspects which impact monetary policy making. Two chapters focus on analyzing voting records of central banks. A method is proposed to use the observed votes to infer the preferences of

House Prices and the stance of Monetary Policy.

OpenAIRE

Jarociński, Marek; Smets, Frank

2008-01-01

This paper estimates a Bayesian VAR for the US economy which includes a housing sector and addresses the following questions. Can developments in the housing sector be explained on the basis of developments in real and nominal GDP and interest rates? What are the effects of housing demand shocks on the economy? How does monetary policy affect the housing market? What are the implications of house price developments for the stance of monetary policy? Regarding the latter question, we implement...

Monetary Policy Instruments and Bank Risks in China

OpenAIRE

Zhongyuan Geng; Xue Zhai

2013-01-01

The authors use a panel data regression model to examine the effects of main monetary policy instruments on commercial bank risks in China from 1998 to 2011. The interest rate has a positive effect on bank risk while the interest rate margin, the reserve requirement ratio and open market operation have a negative effect. Among the three monetary policy instruments, the reserve requirement ratio has the greatest effect on bank risk, the interest rate (the interest rate margin) the second large...

Monetary Policy Drivers of Bond and Equity Risks

OpenAIRE

Luis Viceira; Carolin Pflueger; John Campbell

2014-01-01

How do monetary policy rules, monetary policy uncertainty, and macroeconomic shocks affect the risk properties of US Treasury bonds? The exposure of US Treasury bonds to the stock market has moved considerably over time. While it was slightly positive on average over the period 1960-2011, it was unusually high in the 1980s, and negative in the 2000s, a period during which Treasury bonds enabled investors to hedge macroeconomic risks. This paper develops a New Keynesian macroeconomic model wit...

Monetary-Fiscal-Trade Policy and Economic Growth in Pakistan: Time Series Empirical Investigation

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Syed Tehseen Jawaid

2011-01-01

Full Text Available This study empirically examines the effect of monetary, fiscal and trade policy on economic growth in Pakistan using annual time series data from 1981 to 2009. Money supply, government expenditure and trade openness are used as proxies of monetary, fiscal and trade policy respectively. Cointegration and error correction model indicate the existence of positive significant long run and short run relationship of monetary and fiscal policy with economic growth. Result also indicates that monetary policy is more effective than fiscal policy in Pakistan. In contrast, trade policy has insignificant effect on economic growth both in the short run and in the long run. In light of the findings, it is suggested that the policy makers should focus more on monetary policy in order to ensure economic growth in the country. It is also recommended that further research should be conducted to find out such components of exports and imports which lead to the ineffectiveness of trade policy to enhance economic growth in Pakistan.

Interest rate transmission mechanism of monetary policy in the selected EMU candidate countries

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Mirdala Rajmund

2009-01-01

Full Text Available The stable macroeconomic environment, as one of the primary objectives of the Visegrad countries in the 1990s, was partially supported by the exchange rate policy. Fixed exchange rate systems within gradually widen bands (Czech Republic, Slovak Republic and crawling peg system (Hungary, Poland were replaced by the managed floating in the Czech Republic (May 1997, Poland (April 2000, Slovak Republic (October 1998 and fixed exchange rate to euro in Hungary (January 2000 with broad band (October 2001. Higher macroeconomic and banking sector stability allowed countries from the Visegrad group to implement the monetary policy strategy based on the interest rate transmission mechanism. Continuous harmonization of the monetary policy framework (with the monetary policy of the ECB and the increasing sensitivity of the economy agents to the interest rates changes allowed the central banks from the Visegrad countries to implement monetary policy strategy based on the key interest rates determination. In the paper we analyze the impact of the central banks' monetary policy in the Visegrad countries on the selected macroeconomic variables in the period 1999-2008 implementing SVAR (structural vector autoregression approach. We expect that higher sensitivity of domestic variables to interest rates shocks can be interpreted as a convergence of monetary policies in candidate countries towards the ECB's monetary policy.

Relationship Between Energy Prices, Monetary Policy and Inflation; A Case Study of South Asian Economies

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Atiq-ur-Rehman

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Monetary policy tools, including money supply and interest rate, are the most popular instruments to control inflation around the globe. It is assumed that a tight monetary policy, either in form of reduction in money supply or an increase in interest rate, will reduce inflation by reducing aggregate demand in an economy. However, monetary policy could be counterproductive if cost side effects of monetary tightening prevail. High energy prices may increase the cost of production by reducing aggregate supply in the economy. If tight monetary policy is used to reduce this cost push inflation, the cost side effect of energy prices will add to cost side effects of monetary tightening and will become dominant. In this case, the monetary policy could be counterproductive. Furthermore, simultaneous reduction in aggregate supply and aggregate demand will bring twofold reduction in output. Therefore greater care is needed in the use of monetary policy in the situation of cost push inflation. This article investigates the presence of cost side effect of monetary transmission mechanism, the role of international oil prices in domestic inflation, and implications for monetary policy. The findings suggest that both monetary policy and oil prices have cost side effects on inflation and monetary tightening could be counterproductive if used to reduce energy pushed inflationary trend.

Impact of monetary policy on the volatility of stock market in pakistan

OpenAIRE

Abdul Qayyum; Saba Anwa

2010-01-01

This paper addresses the linkages between the monetary policy and the stock market in Pakistan. The estimation technique employed includes Engle Granger two step procedure and the bivariate EGARCH method. The results indicate that any change in the monetary policy stance have a significant impact on the volatility of the stock market. Thus contributing to the ongoing debate in the monetary policy rule literature regarding the proactive and reactive approach.

Markov switching monetary policy in a two-country DSGE model

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Mavromatis, K.

2012-01-01

In this paper I show, using both empirical and theoretical analysis, that changes in monetary policy in one country can have important e.ects on other economies. My ew empirical evidence shows that changes in the monetary policy behaviour of the Fed since the start of the Euro, well captured by a

The effect of monetary policy of Central Bank on activities of Tehran Stock Exchange

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Hossein Vazifehdust

2013-08-01

Full Text Available This paper examines the relationship between monetary policy and activity of the Tehran Stock Exchange. The statistical population of the research consists of all companies listed in Tehran Stock Exchange and central bank monetary policy variables including time series generated by the central bank seasonally. For the purpose of data analysis, econometric autoregressive system models, and two-stage ADF regression with unit roots test, co-integration and reliability were used to determine level of effect and type of effect of the four components of monetary policy on exchange activity. The results of this study show that there is a strong relation between share price index and monetary policy variables and between monetary policy variables and trading volume. However, the relation between monetary policy variables and cash yield index was not so strong, but monetary policy variables’ effect on stock exchange activity was acceptable considering strong relation between the two first variables. It is suggested that if this work is done using non-linear models, it will yield better results.

Banks' risk appetite, heterogeneity and monetary policy: evidence ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

The study examines the effects of bank heterogeneity on risk appetite under changing monetary policy stance of the monetary authority. The scope of the study covers the period 2005 to 2015 using data obtained from the published accounts of the affected banks and Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) statistical bulletin, various ...

Monetary policy during speculative attacks

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bergman, Ulf Michael; Jellingsø, Mads

2010-01-01

This paper extends the currency crises model of Aghion, Bacchetta and Banerjee (2000, 2001, 2004) in different directions. Our main result is that a tight monetary policy can have adverse effects beyond the short term and can potentially cause a currency crisis in the medium term, even in cases w...

Markov Switching Monetary Policy in a two-country DSGE model

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Mavromatis, K.

2013-01-01

Using real-time data for the US and the Eurozone I find evidence in favor of 1) regime changes in US monetary policy since 1999 and 2) the fact that the responses inflation and output in the Eurozone are sensitive to the regime of US monetary policy. I examine this case theoretically through the

Monetary Policy, Debt and the Cyclical Behavior of Inventories

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Abdul Ghafar Ismail

2007-01-01

Full Text Available An earlier study on the determinants of inventories investment has been proposed by Lovel (1961. However, the study fails to mention the effects of financial variables. The puzzle prevails on account of imperfect capital markets. This implies that interest rate generally affects inventory investment indirectly through the debt channel. For instance, in the period of tight monetary policy, increasing interest rates have a negative impact on the present value of firms’ collateralizable net worth. In addition, they also weaken firms’ balance sheets as interest expenses also rise up. In imperfect capital markets, this fact indicates an increase in the amount of external financing that firms need, a rise in the premium on external financing that they face, and a reduction in their accumulation of assets, their spending and their production. Given the low adjustment cost that characterizes firms, it will be inventories that firms will initially reduce. Therefore, this paper is contributes to the issue of monetary policy transmission in Malaysia. Our specific attention is limited to the channel of monetary policy on a firm’s inventory. Using micro data, we try to take into account the relevance of the firm’s balance sheet conditions in the transmission of monetary policy.

Monetary Policy and Excessive Bank Risk Taking

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Agur, I.; Demertzis, M.

2010-01-01

If monetary policy is to aim at financial stability, how would it change? To analyze this question, this paper develops a general-form model with endogenous bank risk profiles. Policy rates affect both bank incentives to search for yield and the cost of wholesale funding. Financial stability

Financial Constraints and the Response of Business Investment to Monetary Policy Shocks

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Haase Timothy J.

2016-09-01

Full Text Available In this study I investigate what impact monetary policy shocks have on firms’ fixed investment, the less liquid portion of gross investment that requires more planning. I account for firms facing financial constraints firms by utilizing a common measure of asset size, which is used in previous literature. I use two exogenous, continuous series of monetary policy shocks to show that constrained firms have statistically different responses to policy than unconstrained firms. Specifically, I find that constrained firms’ fixed investment significantly responds more to monetary policy shocks than unconstrained firms.

The Interaction of Monetary and Fiscal Policy in the Countries of the Visegrad Group

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Jan Janků

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Coordination of or at least absence of conflict between monetary and fiscal policies are key to the successful implementation of economic policy. The article aims to use reaction functions to assess whether the monetary and fiscal policies in the countries of the Visegrad Group are in coordination or in conflict and which variables influence their decisions. The central bank is the representative of monetary policy, which has interest rates as its instrument, and the government as the representative of the fiscal policy which has change revenue or spending as a share of GDP as instrument. To obtain the results, multivariate regression analysis is used. The research period is based on quarterly observations from first quarter of 2000 to the fourth quarter of 2012. Stabilizing role of monetary policy and in some countries also partially stabilizing role of fiscal policy has been found. Another result was that in the case of the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Poland, monetary policy appears to play the dominant role, whereas fiscal policy plays dominant role in Hungary. In the case of Slovakia, some different results may be due to Slovakia’s participation in ERM II, which led to the monetary policy, in addition to maintaining price stability, also aiming to maintain a fixed exchange rate and the subsequent entry of Slovakia into the Eurozone and the de facto loss of autonomous monetary policy.

Monetary Policy after August 2007

Science.gov (United States)

Gertler, Mark

2013-01-01

In this article, the author describes conceptually how to think about the dramatic changes in monetary policy since the sub-prime crisis of August 2007. He also discusses how to incorporate these changes and related economic concepts in the teaching of an undergraduate class in macroeconomics. A distinction is made between conventional and…

Financial crises and monetary policy

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Goderis, B.V.G.

2005-01-01

In the last three decades, many countries and regions around the world have suffered from currency crises. This thesis investigates the causes of such crises and assesses the role of monetary policy as a tool to avoid them or limit the damage they impose. In addition, it studies the impact of the

Essays in Open Economy Monetary Policy

OpenAIRE

Castro, Pedro

2012-01-01

International economic integration has risen during the last decades and the interdependence between each economy and the rest of the world has become central for policy decisions. My dissertation contributes to the debate about the conduct of monetary policy in a financially integrated world. In the first chapter of the dissertation I discuss the relationship between domestic policies and the currency denomination of foreign debt. Foreign debt is a double-edged sword. It allows countries to ...

Monetary Policy Transmission and Firms’ Investment: Evidence From the Manufacturing Sector of Pakistan

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Arslan Majeed

2017-12-01

Full Text Available This study explores the effects of monetary policy on firms’ business fixed investment spending through the interest rate and broad credit channels of monetary policy transmission mechanism in Pakistan. Due to the problem of endogeneity, Generalized Method of Moments (GMM two step estimation technique is applied on neo-classical investment model by using disaggregated firm level data of manufacturing sector of Pakistan over the period 1974-2010. The results suggest the relevance of both the interest rate and broad credit channels in Pakistan. Firms’ investment found to be negatively affected by the monetary contraction while positively influenced by cash flow and the sales. Small firms explored to be more sensitive to the monetary tightening as compared to large firms indicating that monetary policy exerts heterogeneous effects. Results highlight the importance of considering the financial conditions of the firms in formulation of monetary policy.

How much monetary policy rules do we need to estimate DSGE model for Russia?

OpenAIRE

Shulgin, Andrei

2014-01-01

This paper presents a three-sector DSGE model for a small open economy under the intermediate exchange rate regime. The central bank balance sheet equations are added to allow introducing two different monetary policy rules in the model. The principal question is how many independent monetary policy rules we need to describe Russian monetary policy in 2001–2012. To get an answer we perform Bayesian estimation of the DSGE model for four different combinations of monetary policy rules. The main...

MONETARY POLICIES AND INDUSTRIAL FLUCTUATIONS IN EAST EUROPEAN COUNTRIES

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Mihaela IFRIM

2015-03-01

Full Text Available Industrial fluctuations are closely related to the evolution of relative prices of produced goods and resources involved in production activity. Industrial fluctuations, as an expression of forces manifested in the real economy, are caused by changes in individuals’ consumption and investment decisions, produced within expansionary monetary policies. The ease of obtaining a bank loan in the context of decreasing interest rates and of larger amounts of money caused an increase in individuals’ demand for goods resulted from longer, capital intensive production processes. The rise in prices of intermediate and capital goods in a faster pace compared to the increase in prices of consumer goods is doubled by the increase of the share of higher order industries in the structure of production. The objective of this paper is to analyze changes in industrial structure of Eastern Europe countries within the policies of quick access to monetary resources. The analyzed states (Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Romania are part of the European Union and have autonomous monetary policies, meaning that they have not yet adopted the common currency. In all economies analyzed, we find approximately the same patterns of monetary expansion and industrial fluctuations.

THE COMPARATIVE ANALISYS OF POLISH MONETARY POLICY WITH THE MONETARY RULE FOR THE YEARS 1995–2007

OpenAIRE

Maciej Ryczkowski

2008-01-01

According to the research and econometrical model Poland’s monetary policy and the monetary rule are very similar. In many fields both strategies prove to result in the same outcomes. Both aim to guarantee low inflation and long-term economic growth. The difference is that in Poland the control of supply of money is carried out by the control inflation instead of direct control of monetary aggregates as in monetary rule. To sum up, there is no need to separate control of money’s supply in the...

The ECB monetary policy strategy and the money market

OpenAIRE

Gaspar, Vítor; Pérez Quirós, Gabriel; Sicilia, Jorge

2001-01-01

This paper aims at contributing to the understanding of how the ECB conducts monetary policy as seen from a money market perspective. More specifically it covers two different issues. First, it looks at the 'learning period' for banks since the Eurosystem started implementing the single monetary policy. It shows that during the first three weeks of 1999 the narrow corridor in place during this period was effective in limiting daily volatility of the money market overnight rates. In addition, ...

Monetary Policy of the CIVETS Countries in Years 2006-2013

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Krystyna Mitręga-Niestrój

2015-07-01

Full Text Available CIVETS countries refer to a group of countries consisting of Columbia, Indonesia, Vietnam, Egypt, Turkey and the Republic of South Africa, considered leaders of emerging markets. They are countries with dynamically developing economies, moderate debt level, and they have successfully managed to overcome the last financial and economic crisis within a short period of time. Similarly, as in case of the majority of countries, their monetary policy constitutes a significant element of macroeconomic policy, having influence not only on the condition of the banking sector, but the economy as a whole. Central banks of the CIVETS countries focused on inflation target as the goal of monetary policy. They used first of all the interest rate channel as well as instruments regulating liquidity of interbank money market of a standard character (open market operations, refinanced credits and reserve requirement, as well as non-standard monetary policy instruments in order to execute the policy of supporting liquidity of the banking sector in years 2006-2013.

Monetary Policy in Chile: a black box?

OpenAIRE

Angel Cabrera; Luis Felipe Lagos

2000-01-01

This paper studies monetary policy in Chile during the 1986-1997 period. We concentrate in understanding the monetary transmission mechanism by which the Central Bank instrument—the real interest rate—affects total expenditure, output and the inflation rate. The methodology used is structural VARS. We find a weak effect of the interest rate on all the variables. The interest rate has a significant effect on the expenditure-output gap. Both the interest rate and the expenditure-output gap have...

The Monetary Policy of the NBU and its Impact on the Placement of Households’ Savings

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Perepolkina Olena О.

2018-03-01

Full Text Available The article researches the efficiency of implementation of monetary policy in Ukraine in the context of determining the optimal ways to place households’ savings. The prospects of making deposits in both national and foreign currency as the most common directions of savings placement are considered. The research has identified that the main risks in the placement of savings by households as deposits in the national currency are the likelihood of bankruptcy of financial institutions, imperfection of the functioning of deposit guarantee system, inflationary fluctuations, and devaluation processes of the national monetary unit. Significant deterrents to the placement of foreign currency deposits are low interest rates, a large number of restrictions in the currency regulation, and a general low level of trust in the banking system. The directions of increasing the efficiency of monetary policy are proposed, that not only will increase the attractiveness of deposits for households, but also will create the basis for macroeconomic stabilization in Ukraine.

Integration of Monetary and Fiscal Policy of the Countries of the Visegrad Group

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Kappel Stanislav

2014-09-01

Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to evaluate mutual interaction of monetary and fiscal policies in the countries of the Visegrad group, i.e. in the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Poland and Hungary. The relationship of monetary and fiscal policy - their coordination, cooperation or mutual antagonism - are basic determinants of successful implementation for economic policy of the state. Fiscal and monetary policies usually have different aims, and some conflict situations may arise in practical economic and political decision- making. Each policy has to make its decision with regard to the other one. Methodical approaches of this contribution are based on the game theory, which deals with the analysis of a wide range of decision situations with more participants (players and it is primarily focused on the conflict situations. This game-theoretical approach is responsible for creating the theoretical model which is then dealt with in the empirical analysis. We find a distinctly stabilizing role of monetary policy and relatively problematic stabilizing role of fiscal policy in the analyzed countries. The dominant role of monetary policy is statistically confirmed in the case of the Czech Republic and Hungary.

Rules and Discretion in Monetary Policy: Is the Response of the Stock Market Rational?

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Ion-Iulian MARINESCU

2015-04-01

Full Text Available We investigate the effects of the monetary policy conduct on the domestic capital market for a sample of developed countries where the capital market plays a significant role in the economy. We break down the policy rate innovations in rules-based and discretionary components in order to determine the degree of prudentiality in the monetary policy conduct and we study their accounts with respect to capital market rationality. The rules-based component is determined using an interpolated vanilla Taylor-rule policy rate at the event date and the discretionary component is obtained by subtracting the rules-based rate from the target monetary policy rate innovation. Using an event study approach, we analyze the impact of monetary policy components on the returns of the stock market and we determine that the conduct of the monetary policy can cause irrational responses of the capital market. More than that, we show, for the analyzed countries, that if the general level of discretion in the monetary policy is high the response of the stock market becomes increasingly erratic, indicating that forward guidance may help reduce uncertainty on capital markets.

Monetary Policy in a Low Inflation Environment

NARCIS (Netherlands)

C.A. Ullersma (Cornelis Alexander)

2007-01-01

textabstractThis thesis shows that since the mid 1980s a sharp fall in equity and house prices tends to go hand in hand with a reduction of the monetary policy interest rate, which is the central bank’s main instrument to safeguard price stability. In exceptional circumstances, the policy rate can

THE ASSET PRICE CHANNEL AND ITS ROLE IN MONETARY POLICY TRANSMISSION

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Dan Horatiu

2013-07-01

Full Text Available his paper addresses the subject of the monetary policy transmission mechanism by focusing on the asset price channel, which is the monetary transmission channel responsible for the propagation of the effects induced by the monetary policy decisions made by the central bank that affect the price of assets. We will analyze the asset price channel by taking a close look at its structure, internal processes and the way it delivers monetary policy throughout the economy, ultimately influencing key variables such as the unemployment rate and the levels of consumption and production. After an introduction dealing with the entire monetary transmission mechanism, its role and purposes, we will focus on the particularities of the asset price channel and the two main ways in which it delivers monetary policy decision effects: through changes in Tobin’s q value, which is the ratio between the market value of a given company and its replacement cost of capital, and through the effect of wealth, both of financial and housing nature, on consumption. In our study, we will consider theoretical aspects and observations, but also empirical evidence that highlights that the exact way in which the asset price channel functions may differ from one economy to another due to differences in the structures of the respective economies and differences in psychology and cultural values of consumers. The deep understanding of the asset price transmission channel is very important for any central bank, as this is the channel that governs key aspects of monetary policy transmission linked to the market value of assets and individual wealth. These values have, as we will see in more detail throughout the paper, an important impact on both consumption and investment, two economic actions that can help the economy, but can also prove to be a crucial element in starting and perpetuating an economic crisis.

Monetary policy, banking and heterogeneous agents

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Wolski, M.

2012-01-01

The influence of heterogeneous expectations on monetary policy performance has gained a lot of attention in the recent years. It proved to be an important factor that, under some circumstances, may even destabilize the economy (Massaro, 2012). This paper investigates the phenomenon of heterogeneous

Non-Standard Monetary Policies Implemented By The European Central Bank After The Financial Crisis

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Meryem Filiz Baştürk

2017-07-01

Full Text Available The financial crisis which began in the U.S. in 2007 influenced all economies on a global scale followingthe collapse of Lehman Brothers in September 2008. As a response to the crisis, central banksstarted to implement non-standard monetary policy tools as well as short-term interest rates alsoknown as standard policy tools in order to help monetary policy transmission channels work effectively.The European Central Bank (ECB implemented non-standard monetary policies as in additionto the standard policy tools during this period. The non-standard monetary policies introducedby the ECB were different from those implemented by other central banks (Fed, Bank of England interms of implementation and results. Firstly, the policies of the ECB were not specific to one singlecountry. Secondly, the banking system was the major source of finance in Europe, which had an impacton the policies. In this regard, the ECB introduced a policy of enhanced credit support consistingof five main elements in order to maintain price stability over the medium term following the crisis.By 2010, public debt in some member countries of the European Union reached high levels, requiringthem to take additional measures. The Securities Markets Programme was introduced to that end.Initially focusing on the debt securities of Greece, Ireland, and Portugal, the Securities Markets Programmewas expanded in August 2011 to cover the debt securities of Italy and Spain. In addition, twoLong-term Refinancing Operations (LTROs were introduced. This article presents a descriptive analysisof the non-standard monetary policy tools introduced by the ECB following the financial crisis.However, the monetary policy implemented in the Euro zone is not specific to one single country, andevery country has a different financial structure, both of which limit the effectiveness of the policiesimplemented. The changing structure of the monetary policy implemented in the aftermath of the crisisaims to

Assessing the Impact of the ECB's Monetary Policy on the Stock Markets: A Sectoral View

OpenAIRE

Konstantin Kholodilin; Alberto Montagnoli; Oreste Napolitano; Boriss Siliverstovs

2008-01-01

This paper analyzes the response of the European stock markets to the monetary policy shocks by the European Central Bank using the heteroskedasticity based approach of Rigobon (2003). We find that monetary policy tightening has a heterogeneous impact on the Euro Area sectors on the day the monetary policy is publicly announced. Furthermore, we provide statistical evidence against the use of the popular event study approach when assessing the impact of monetary policy shocks on the stock mark...

Quantification model of the consequences of monetary policy shocks

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Coralia Emilia POPA

2017-11-01

Full Text Available The monetary analysis based on the BVAR (Bayesian Vector Autoregression model is extremely important in the monetary policy implementation strategy, the information provided is important not only for the Central Bank, but also for the economic agents and the population. Therefore, conducting this analysis at the level of Romania helps to understand better the mechanism by which monetary policy is transmitted in order to achieve the set target, namely inflation targeting, but it also provides us with important information regarding the accession to the euro area. The model we are trying to test helps us understand through the correlations between the interest rate, GDP and the inflation rate how monetary policy responds to shocks. The model follows the methodology presented by Sims and Zha (1998 in the paper "Bayesian Methods for Dynamic Multivariate Models and Using the Bayesian Autoregressive Vector". In the analysis of this model, quarterly data for a minimum of three years, three variables are used to make the results relevant. The data needed to model the model are used in logarithmic form, except for the interest rate, and the outcome is applied to a differentiated premium operator. Of the variables used, the interest rate is the only one that does not allow seasonal adjustment.

Revival of Legacy of Tooke and Gibson: Implications for Monetary Policy

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Rehman Atiq-ur

2015-05-01

Full Text Available The monetary policy rules used by central banks these days are based on the assumption that inflation could be reduced by increasing interest rate. On contrary, Tooke (1774-1858, the forefather of monetary economics, was of the view that the relationship between interest rate and inflation should be positive. His view was based on simple logic, ‘interest is a part of cost, and therefore, the increase in interest rate should increase inflation by increasing cost of production (Tooke, 1838’. Tooke’s view has got support from a number of empirical evidence including Gibson (1923 who found positive correlation between two variables for UK data over a period of 200 years. On the other hand, mainstream economic thinking on which the actual monetary practices are based ignored any possibility of positive relationship between interest rate and inflation throughout the history. The existence of Tooke’s cost side effects of monetary policy is a serious concern because if these effects exist than the use of monetary policy would be counterproductive. Using the data from entire globe, I attempt to explore the nature of relationship between the interest rate and inflation. I found that the data supports the perception of Tooke and Gibson and denies that the effectiveness of monetary policy currently adapted by the correlation between interest rate and inflation is positive. The results are robust to sample size, sample period, and various definitions of interest rate and inflation.

UNCONVENTIONAL MONETARY POLICY: CHANGING EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK’S PERSPECTIVE ON FINANCIAL GOVERNANCE

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Bogdan Munteanu

2017-06-01

Full Text Available The paper aims to look at the European Central Bank governance in terms of decisions taken to deploy a new kit of unconventional monetary policy measures, in order to respond to a new economic paradigm characterized by dynamic change in evolution, high volatility and enhanced financial risks. As an institution, the European Central Bank is led by the Governing Council and the decisions taken on how to use monetary policy impact an entire financial system. European Central Banking governance is about safeguarding the common currency and ensuring a future for the economic and monetary area to emerge stronger. For this purpose, when conventional monetary policies reach limits in their effects, it is time for the European Central Bank governance to analyse and assume the decision to deploy the arsenal of unconventional monetary policies. The experience of recent years showed a positive effect of the European Central Bank’s unconventional monetary measures, but costs could rise in case of extensive use of such measures. When these measures are used in combination, the effect is amplified and the European Central Bank needs to assess when it is time to withdraw the support, how to communicate and what exit strategy should use, what the costs are and impact can expect.

The Bank Lending Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission in A Dual Banking System

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Mansor H. Ibrahim

2017-02-01

Full Text Available This paper examines the impact of monetary policy on bank lending in a dual banking system, i.e. Malaysia. Making use of an unbalanced panel data set of 38 Islamic and conventional banks covering mostly 2001-2014, we find evidence that variations in monetary policy affect lending growth of Islamic banks and, to some extent, conventional banks. The results further reveal that, in conformity with studies using aggregate Islamic financing data, the Islamic financing growth reacts more strongly to monetary policy changes. Moreover, we find no marked difference between full-fledged Islamic banks and Islamic bank subsidiaries in their responses to monetary policy. While we also document some evidence indicating the significant relations between bank-specific variables and lending growth, the bank-specific variables do not seem to have any role in impacting the potency of the bank lending channel. Finally, we find that lending growth is directly related to economic growth, suggesting procyclicality of bank lending/financing in Malaysia. These results have important implications for effective implementation of monetary policy and further development of Islamic banks in Malaysia.

Assessment of the monetary policy transmission mechanism in the new EU member states

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Bungin Sanja

2016-01-01

Full Text Available In order to completely understand and analyse the transmission mechanism, it is necessary to observe all factors conditioning its overall efficiency as well as the efficiency of individual transmission channels. This paper focuses on countries that have successfully passed the transition period and have experience with implementing different monetary policy regimes. The evolution of monetary policy resulted in the development of instruments through which central banks influence the real sector activity by means of a transmission mechanism. The empirical analysis based on econometric tools investigates the efficiency of transmission mechanism channels, or more precisely, their significance in the monetary targeting regime. With a view to reaching the conclusion about the direction in which it is necessary to develop the structure of the real and financial sector, aimed at a better functioning of monetary policy instruments, the paper features a theoretical analysis of the characteristics of the monetary policy in the developed economies, as well as the structural characteristics of these economies.

EFFECTIVENESS AND LIMITATIONS OF MONETARY POLICY INSTRUMENTS IN ROMANIA AND THE EUROPEAN UNION

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Zina CIORAN

2014-12-01

Full Text Available The complexity of the monetary phenomenon as well as the effects that it induces in the social and economic life of the countries around the world have represented and still represent the subject of much controversy and dispute. The current forms of the monetary circulation organization in different countries, internationally as well, represent the result of a continuous process of changes and innovations in the monetary area. The purpose of this article is to present aspects of the monetary policy and its instruments which have evolved according to the historical conditions of each period. The paper is also a presentation of effectiveness and limits of the monetary policy instruments and their role in solving the current economic problems for which the governments seek solutions. As a consequence to the analysis, it can be seen that in most cases it uses a mixture of monetary policy instruments because, when acting in a complementary way, they have a higher efficiency.

The Regional Impact of Monetary Policy in Indonesia

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Ridhwan, M.M.; de Groot, H.L.F.; Rietveld, P.; Nijkamp, P.

2014-01-01

This paper employs vector autoregressive (VAR) models to measure the impact of monetary policy shocks on regional output in Indonesia. We find substantial cross-regional variation in policy responses in terms of both magnitude as well as timing. Our work adds to the existing literature by providing

Temporary oil production, current account deterioration and the role of monetary and fiscal policy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Harvie, C.

1992-01-01

This paper extends earlier work on the macroeconomic adjustment processes arising for an economy experiencing a temporary period of oil production. Emphasis is placed on developments in the current account, as reflected in foreign asset stock movements, after oil production ceases, as well as on the role that monetary, fiscal or fiscal/monetary policy can play in influencing current-account developments during this same period. The results presented suggest that, to improve the performance of the current account, irrespective of the wage adjustment mechanism operative, after oil production ceases, the major thrust of macroeconomic policy should operate through fiscal rather than monetary policy. However developments in non-oil output would be influenced by the wage adjustment mechanism. With wage indexation, a tight fiscal policy after oil production ceases leads to a higher level of non-oil output than in the no policy response case, or one where monetary policy alone is used. With no wage indexation, the use of monetary and/or fiscal policy leads to lower levels of non-oil output. The use of fiscal policy also has the added benefit of contributing to a lower consumer price level, again irrespective of the operative wage adjustment mechanism. If the emphasis of policy operates through monetary policy, irrespective of the wage adjustment mechanism, the current-account problem will be exacerbated since foreign assets stocks will be lower. In addition, non-oil output and consumer prices will be lower. (Author)

The Influence of Monetary Policy and Fiscal Policy on the Rural Residents' Consumptionâ «

OpenAIRE

Liu, Xinzhi; Li, Lu; Liu, Yusong

2014-01-01

This paper conducts an empirical analysis of influence of fiscal expenditure supporting agriculture monetary supply on rural residents’s consumption by adopting a vector auto-regression model, based on the data from 1978 to 2011. The study indicated that: in the short term, fiscal policy is the Granger reason of rural residents’ consumption, monetary policy is not the Granger reason of rural residents’ consumption; in the long term, the comprehensive function of fiscal policy and moneta...

Virtual Currencies – monetary policy dilemmas and regulatory challenges

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Daj Alexis

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Although the topic of virtual currencies is not completely new, the current technological developments and the extent of the globalisation process appear to have changed the scope of the research efforts needed to cover not only the advantages and opportunities, but also the disadvantages and threats that the expansion of virtual currencies can pose for monetary policy and the safety of the financial system. This paper comprises a brief presentation of the different types of virtual currencies and identifies some of the most significant implications of large-scale virtual currency adoption for monetary authorities and regulators, while providing an overview of the main trends in the evolution of virtual currencies. In the end, one conclusion is evident: whatever monetary policy or regulatory issues arise from the use of virtual currencies, their consequences are far from virtual.

PROBLEM AND PERSPECTIVE OF ISLAMIC MONETARY POLICY IN INDONESIA

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Marsuki Marsuki

2017-03-01

Full Text Available This article would try to explicate several theoretical and practical concepts on the problems and prospectsof Islamic monetary policy in Indonesia using a critical analysis approach, in accordance with standardscientific references, and would be complemented with descriptions and examples of practice. From theseillustrations and analyses, it appeared that on one hand, Islamic monetary policy would find many difficultiesif implemented fully, considering that there were several fundamental obstacles that would have to besurmounted by such an implementation, primarily the fact that Indonesian Constitution (UUD 1945 was notbased on Islamic law or syariah. On the other hand, despite problems and challenges, the existing conditionwas still open for the possibility for partial implementation of Islamic monetary policy. It was because therewere several conditions which were amenable for an implementation, for instance the facts that majority ofIndonesian population was Muslim, the increasing acceptance of the public for the advantages of Islamicmonetary and financial system, and increasing support by stakeholders of the banking system, especiallythe Indonesian central bank (BI. Moreover, there were facts about financial institutions and existingsyariah banking institutions.

The 'Thin film of gold': monetary rules and policy credibility

OpenAIRE

Niall Ferguson; Moritz Schularick

2012-01-01

This paper asks whether developing countries can reap credibility gains from submitting policy to a strict monetary rule. Following earlier work, we look at the gold standard era (1880-1914) as a "natural experiment" to test whether adoption of a rule-based monetary framework such as the gold standard increased policy credibility. On the basis of the largest possible dataset covering almost sixty independent and colonial borrowers in the London market, we challenge the traditional view that g...

The Formation of New Monetary Policies: Decisions of Central Banks on the Great Recession

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Ana Esther Castro

2014-05-01

Full Text Available The effect that the Great Recession had on monetary policies has led to the profound reorientation of central banks’ actions from 2007 to 2013. The purpose of this work is to analyze the monetary policies applied by the main central banks, mainly the European Central Bank, the Federal Reserve System of USA and the Bank of Japan, in order to raise thoughts on the guidelines that central banks should follow in the future. In the first section the bases of monetary policy before the crisis are described; in the second we explain the change in the orientation of the role of central banks during the crisis; and finally, we synthesize the bases on which the economic debate is taking place on the orientation of future monetary policies. We conclude that, in so far as the inoperativeness of transmission mechanisms still persists, monetary policies will remain in a process of change.

The Disparate Labor Market Impacts of Monetary Policy

Science.gov (United States)

Carpenter, Seth B.; Rodgers, William M., III

2004-01-01

Employing two widely used approaches to identify the effects of monetary policy, this paper explores the differential impact of policy on the labor market outcomes of teenagers, minorities, out-of-school youth, and less-skilled individuals. Evidence from recursive vector autoregressions and autoregressive distributed lag models that use…

Examining the reaction of monetary policy to exchange rate changes: A nonlinear ARDL approach

Science.gov (United States)

Manogaran, Lavaneesvari; Sek, Siok Kun

2017-04-01

Previous studies showed the exchange rate changes can have significant impacts on macroeconomic performance. Over fluctuation of exchange rate may lead to economic instability. Hence, monetary policy rule tends to react to exchange rate changes. Especially, in emerging economies where the policy-maker tends to limit the exchange rate movement through interventions. In this study, we seek to investigate how the monetary policy rule reacts to exchange rate changes. The nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model is applied to capture the asymmetric effect of exchange rate changes on monetary policy reaction function (interest rate). We focus the study in ASEAN5 countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Singapore). The results indicated the existence of asymmetric effect of exchange rates changes on the monetary reaction function for all ASEAN5 countries in the long-run. Where, in majority of the cases the monetary policy is reacting to the appreciation and depreciation of exchange rate by raising the policy rate. This affirms the intervention of policymakers with the `fear of floating' behavior.

Rules Versus Discretion in Monetary Policy

OpenAIRE

Stanley Fischer

1988-01-01

This paper examines the case for rules rather than discretion in the conduct of monetary policy, from both historical and analytic perspectives. The paper starts with the rules of the game under the gold standard. These rules were ill-defined and not adhered to; active discretionary policy was pursued to defend the gold standard -- but the gold standard came closer to a regime of rules than the current system. The arguments for rules in general developed by Milton Friedman are described mo ap...

Comparisons of different monetary policies in China with yield curve information

OpenAIRE

Pang, Iris Ai Jao

2010-01-01

This work compares the effectiveness of quantity-based and price-based monetary policies in China using FAVAR. This essay is the pioneer to identify the 1-year lending rate and deposit rate as the policy rates, and includes yield curve information in the analysis. It is found that effects of tightening monetary policies in China follow largely the stylized facts of long run neutrality of money on real activities, a long term fall in inflation and a short term rise in interest rates.

The Transmission of Monetary Policy through Conventional and Islamic Banks

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Zaheer, S.; Ongena, S.; van Wijnbergen, S.J.G.

2011-01-01

We investigate the differences in banks’ responses to monetary policy shocks across bank size, liquidity, and type, i.e., conventional versus Islamic, in Pakistan between 2002:II to 2010:I. We find that following a monetary contraction, small banks with liquid balance sheets cut their lending less

The transmission of monetary policy through conventional and islamic banks

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Zaheer, S.; Ongena, S.; van Wijnbergen, S.

2012-01-01

We investigate the differences in banks' responses to monetary policy shocks across bank size, liquidity, and type, i.e., conventional versus Islamic, in Pakistan between 2002:II to 2010:I. We find that following a monetary contraction, small banks with liquid balance sheets cut their lending less

Endogenous Monetary Policy Regime Change

OpenAIRE

Troy Davig; Eric M. Leeper

2006-01-01

This paper makes changes in monetary policy rules (or regimes) endogenous. Changes are triggered when certain endogenous variables cross specified thresholds. Rational expectations equilibria are examined in three models of threshold switching to illustrate that (i) expectations formation effects generated by the possibility of regime change can be quantitatively important; (ii) symmetric shocks can have asymmetric effects; (iii) endogenous switching is a natural way to formally model preempt...

Fiscal and monetary policies in the South Pacific Island countries: an evaluation.

Science.gov (United States)

Jayaraman, T K

2000-06-01

This paper evaluates the fiscal and monetary policies of South Pacific Island Countries (SPICs) in terms of its efficacy on economic growth. To this effect, the backgrounds on the existing fiscal and monetary policies are discussed with emphasis on their inefficiencies and limitations. In addition, the findings of an empirical study conducted in the countries of Fiji, Tonga, Vanatau, and Samoa regarding the efficacy of the policies are presented. The results, which were subjected to various tests of statistical significance, indicate that both policies were ineffective in all four SPICs. However, monetary policy had a positive impact on growth in Fiji, Tonga, and Vanatau. In view of such, several policy implications are cited, including 1) that delays and inefficiencies involved in the execution of public projects should be minimized; 2) quality and components of public expenditures is of critical significance; and 3) financial sectors should be improved.

Monetary Policy Signaling from the Administration to the Federal Reserve.

OpenAIRE

Havrilesky, Thomas

1988-01-01

This paper develops an index of monetary policy signals from the Administration to the Federal Reserve based on articles which appeared in the Wall Street Journal in which Administration off icials express a desire for easier or tighter monetary policy. In reg ressions, the index has a significant effect on the money supply. In reaction functions, the index responds to variables which measure the state of the economy. Money growth does not respond to the same stat e-of-the-economy measures bu...

The transmission of monetary policy through conventional and Islamic banks

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Zaheer, S.; Ongena, S.; van Wijnbergen, S.J.G.

2013-01-01

We investigate the differences in banks’ responses to monetary policy shocks across bank size, liquidity, and type—i.e., conventional versus Islamic—in Pakistan between 2002:Q2 and 2010:Q1. We find that following a monetary contraction, small banks with liquid balance sheets cut their lending less

THE CRUCIAL ROLE OF CENTRAL BANK TRANSPARENCY IN ASSESSING THE MONETARY POLICY COMMITTEE MECHANISM

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Dumiter Florin Cornel

2012-12-01

Full Text Available In the past, central banks used to be very reserved regarding their activities, strategies and monetary policy decisions and actions. As central banks become more and more independent, transparency gained importance based upon accountability arguments. An important fact for adopting an increasing central bank transparency lies in its importance of influencing the development of expectations. The concept of central bank transparency has emerged in the economic literature relatively later than some other key concepts. The widespread agreement of an inflation targeting regime and a more transparent central bank is desired by the most central banks around the world in the context of the need of the public disclosure of macroeconomic models, the quarterly time series for indicators like: inflation, output, budgetary deficit, public debt, interest rate, inflation expectations, the public announcement of the monetary policy decisions, objectives and targets, the publication of some key monetary tools like: inflation report, financial stability report, monetary policy committee report, annual report. These are all key issues in the construction of a more transparent and independent central bank in the context of a good global governance. Moreover, for the fruitful success of the central bank, latum sensu, and monetary policy, stricto sensu, it must be encompassed a complex monetary policy committee mechanism. This complex mechanism must by edowed with the collegial approach of the monetary policy committee, structure of the voting mechanism within the committee, the importance of the person which announces the changes within the interest rates and the public disclosure of these information’s enriched in a communication strategy. This communication strategy is very important for assessing and public understanding of the central bank’s actions but also for communicating the objectives, targets and forward looking approaches of the monetary

Monetary policy cooperation may not be counterproductive

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jensen, Henrik

1997-01-01

This paper qualifies Rogoff's famous (1985) result that international monetary policy cooperation is counterproductive. In a model similar to his, it is shown that if wage-setters are non-atomistic and inflation averse - as policymakers are - cooperation leads to higher employment and possibly...

The role of financial intermediaries in monetary policy transmission

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Beck, T.H.L.; Colciago, A.; Pfajfar, D.

The recent financial crisis has stimulated theoretical and empirical research on the propagation mechanisms underlying business cycles, in particular on the role of financial frictions. Many issues concerning the interactions between banking and monetary policy forced policy makers to redefine

Economic policy of the monetary authorities as factor of achievement of abstract financial stability

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Tashtamirov M.R.

2016-11-01

Full Text Available this article is devoted to the questions of the crisis phenomena in Russian economy in sector of a monetary and credit system and a role of economic policy of the monetary authorities (Bank of Russia in ensuring financial stability. Short assessment of the main macroeconomic indicators of the country economy is given. The author is describing the actions of economic management regarding monetary control. It is inexpedient that the Central Bank for carrying out the tough restriction policy directed to oppression of economic development and further primitivizing of national economy. It is offered to transform monetary policy for ensuring anti-recessionary actions exiting the stagnating condition.

Perspectives on Monetary Policy and Cost of Capital: Evidence from Turkey

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Turguttopbas Neslihan

2017-05-01

Full Text Available The target of monetary policy is generally set as to create an environment of manageable employment and affordable long-term interest rates. However, priorities of central banks may differ depending on economic and financial circumstances of individual countries. Modern approaches to monetary policy transmission can be grouped under two headings, Money View and Credit View. The money view concentrates on interest rates to explain the effects of monetary policy on aggregate spending by creating an interest rate channel. The credit channel transmission approach focuses on the supply of credits by banks following a monetary policy shift in interest rates. In 2010, the Central Bank of Turkey (CBT developed an interest rate corridor shaped by one-week and overnight repo lending to the financial banks to absorb excessive volatility caused by short-term capital inflows. Under this framework, the CBT implements its monetary policy in two ways; firstly it can alter the interest rates of weekly repo as well as O/N lending rate. Secondly, it can configure the funding structure it provides to the financial intermediaries. In such a framework, the interest rate transmission mechanism has been operated by two benchmark interest rates, one of which is the weighted average of the cost of funds provided by the CBT and the other is the interest rate in Borsa Istanbul (BIST money market transactions at an overnight maturity. There is a strong co-movement between the interest rates and they are affected by the movements in the CBT lending rate in both directions. Interest rates applied to deposits and loans by banks are affected by the policy rate (CBT Average Funding Rate and the market rate (BIST O/N Repo Rate.

THE ROLE OF MONETARY POLICY IN STIMULATING ECONOMIC GROWTH

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Polyakov Egor Nikolaevich

2013-05-01

Full Text Available The paper reviews the conduct of monetary policy in Russia throughout last 10 years. The core method of analysis is ADL modeling. The author explains money supply influence on key macroeconomic variables: investment, consumption, import, inflation, REER. Specifically our results show to what extent GDP growth is determined by money supply growth throughout last 10 years. The author explains efficiency fall of Central Bank expansionary actions throughout last 5 years. The author suggests the set of decisions geared towards increasing the monetary policy efficiency. Ruble devaluation is a key of them. In particular, now the Central Bank of Russia and the Government of the following may be recommended: - gradual devaluation of the ruble by operations in the currency market you with the sterilization of excess money supply; - reduction in the rate of growth of tariffs for electricity, gas, of rail transport to the level of inflation; - reduction in the rate of growth of budget expenditures to the level of inflation. According to the author, these measures will allow monetary policy to revive Russia as an effective tool to stimulate economic growth.

THE ROLE OF MONETARY POLICY IN STIMULATING ECONOMIC GROWTH

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Егор Николаевич Поляков

2013-06-01

Full Text Available The paper reviews the conduct of monetary policy in Russia throughout last 10 years. The core method of analysis is ADL modeling. The author explains money supply influence on key macroeconomic variables: investment, consumption, import, inflation, REER. Specifically our results show to what extent GDP growth is determined by money supply growth throughout last 10 years. The author explains efficiency fall of Central Bank expansionary actions throughout last 5 years. The author suggests the set of decisions geared towards increasing the monetary policy efficiency. Ruble devaluation is a key of them.In particular, now the Central Bank of Russia and the Government of the following may be recommended:- gradual devaluation of the ruble by operations in the currency market you with the sterilization of excess money supply;- reduction in the rate of growth of tariffs for electricity, gas, of rail transport to the level of inflation;- reduction in the rate of growth of budget expenditures to the level of inflation.According to the author, these measures will allow monetary policy to revive Russia as an effective tool to stimulate economic growth.DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.12731/2218-7405-2013-5-9

Foreign Shocks, Monetary Policy, and Macroeconomic Fluctuations in a Small Open Economy: A SVAR Study of Malaysia

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Zulkefly Abdul Karim

2016-06-01

Full Text Available This paper investigates the effect of foreign shocks upon domestic macroeconomic fluctuations and monetary policy, and examines the effectiveness of domestic monetary policy as a stabilization policy in Malaysia. Monetary policy variables (interest rate and money supply have been measured through a non-recursive structural VAR (SVAR identification scheme, which allows the monetary authority to set the interest rate and money supply after observing the current value of foreign variables, domestic output and inflation. The results show the important role of foreign shocks in influencing Malaysian monetary policy and macroeconomic variables. There is a real effect of monetary policy, that is, a positive shock in money supply increases domestic output. In contrast, a positive interest rates shock has a negative effect on domestic output growth and inflation. The effects of money supply and interest rate shocks on the exchange rate and stock prices are also consistent with standard economic theory. In addition, domestic monetary policy is able to mitigate the negative effect of external shocks upon domestic economy.

The Monetary Policy in a Changing World

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Mariana Trandafir

2015-05-01

Full Text Available In a context where “the economies’ evolution is driven by the crisis”, the monetary policies are facing, in the post-crisis period, challenges that bring to the forefront of debates the rethinking of objectives, strategies and even implementation tools. This paper presents in a comparative analysis, the relevance of price stability in terms of theoretical fundaments and effectiveness of the concept for the pre and post – crisis periods, in the Eurozone, the US and Japan in an attempt to identify the explicative resorts of the central bank’s monetary behavior. At this time when the central banks are obliged to unconventional measures to save the global economy from the danger of deflation, the topic is important and timely addressed. The paper uses statistical data of official documents taken from the International Monetary Fund, European Union and central bank websites.

Monetary Policy of the Federal Reserve System from the Perspective of Exit Strategies

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Aleksandra Nocoń

2015-07-01

Full Text Available Central banks, after the experience of the global financial crisis, are now starting the implementation of the exit strategies, which are the process of normalization of monetary policy. The pace of monetary policy normalization process depends on the market reaction to central bank's decisions and macroeconomic conditions, in which they will be implemented. The main aim of the study is to present the principles of the exit strategy of the Federal Reserve System (Fed, on the background of the changes that have occurred in the United States within the monetary policy during the global financial crisis.

Estimation of transmission mechanism of monetary policy in Serbia

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Bungin Sanja

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Transmission mechanism of monetary policy recently has been subject to several studies in Serbia. The so called 'black box' of monetary policy is investigated with aim to identify the effects of transmission channel in environment where exchange rate has a dominant role in central bank operations. Therefore, it is a challenge to approach this problem in inflation targeting regime where key interest rate is expected to prevail as a main policy instrument. The study employs unrestricted Vector Autoregression model for estimating significance of exchange rate and interest rate channel. As expected, exchange rate has far more stronger influence on inflation, even though there are some signs of interest rate channel existence. Introducing Euribor as endogenous variables in VAR system displayed important impact on real variables.

MODERN APPROACHES TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF MONETARY POLICY AND THE REGULATION OF FINANCIAL SYSTEMS

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Radu CUHAL

2013-01-01

Full Text Available This study determines the modern approaches to the implementation of monetary policy and regulation of financial systems. Set of measures to prevent and overcome the financial crisis is grounded taking into consideration different areas of research and the IMF. New tasks of monetary policy in central banks are specified and they are intended to ensure the financial stability of the state (within the common fiscal policy. The main directions of elaboration and implementation of new monetary policy mechanism, which is intended to ensure the effective solution of problems in macro prudential supervision and financial stability, are examined.

Modern approaches to the implementation of monetary policy and the regulation of financial systems

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Basistîi Nicolae

2013-01-01

Full Text Available This study determines the modern approaches to the implementation of monetary policy and regulation of financial systems. Set of measures to prevent and overcome the financial crisis is grounded taking into consideration different areas of research and the IMF.New tasks of monetary policy in central banks are specified and they are intended to ensure the financial stability of the state (within the common fiscal policy.The main directions of elaboration and implementation of new monetary policy mechanism, which is intended to ensure the effective solution of problems in macro prudential supervision and financial stability, are examined.

Interaction between fiscal and monetary policy in a dynamic nonlinear model.

Science.gov (United States)

Bertella, Mario A; Rego, Henio A; Neris, Celso; Silva, Jonathas N; Podobnik, Boris; Stanley, H Eugene

2015-01-01

The objective of this study is to verify the dynamics between fiscal policy, measured by public debt, and monetary policy, measured by a reaction function of a central bank. Changes in monetary policies due to deviations from their targets always generate fiscal impacts. We examine two policy reaction functions: the first related to inflation targets and the second related to economic growth targets. We find that the condition for stable equilibrium is more restrictive in the first case than in the second. We then apply our simulation model to Brazil and United Kingdom and find that the equilibrium is unstable in the Brazilian case but stable in the UK case.

Financial Plumbing and Monetary Policy

OpenAIRE

Manmohan Singh

2014-01-01

This paper focuses on how changes in financial plumbing of the markets may impact the monetary policy options as central banks contemplate lift off from zero lower bound (ZLB). Under the proposed regulations, banks will face leverage ratio constraints. As a result of quantitative easing (QE), banks want balance sheet “space” for financial intermediation/ non-depository activities. At the same time, regulatory changes are boosting demand for high quality liquid assets. The paper also discusses...

Asset Pricing and Monetary Policy

OpenAIRE

Bingbing Dong

2014-01-01

This paper examines the role of money in understanding the behavior of asset prices and whether and how monetary policy should react to asset prices such as stock prices and equity premiums. To do so, I introduce money via the form of transaction cost into a production economy with limited stock market participation where agents with lower inter-temporal elasticity of substitution (IES), called non-stockholders, have no access to stock market. In addition to facilitating transactions of consu...

Anti-crisis monetary policy on the example of selected central banks in 2007-2011

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Łukasz Kluczyński

2015-04-01

Full Text Available The purpose of this article was to present the actions of the monetary authorities in the light of the recent financial crisis. Destabilization of global markets and the economic recession that began with the collapse of Lehman Brothers meant that the standard monetary policy emerged ineffective in combating the crisis. The article shows how two major central banks of the world that is, the FED and the ECB, through modifying the existing instruments of monetary policy and the introduction of completely new tools tried to restore liquidity in the financial markets, after the standard monetary policy instruments have been insufficient and ineffective. In contrast, activities of the NBP also shown, which were primarily preventive aspect.

Signalling, wage controls and monetary disinflation policy

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van Wijnbergen, S.J.G.; Persson, T.

1993-01-01

Focuses on wage control and monetary disinflation policy. How the crucial variable to control is the money supply and wage and price controls should be avoided because of their macroeconomic costs; The two types of government as being low-inflation governments and high-inflation governments; How

MONEY AND MONETARY POLICY OF THE GOVERNMENT

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Tsvetan Iliev

2017-12-01

Full Text Available In this paper we will clarify the issues related to: the emergence of money - their functions and varieties, the specificity of their demand and supply and the main aspects of the monetary policy of the state with its effects on the economic development.

Optimal Degrees of Transparency in Monetary Policymaking

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jensen, Henrik

2002-01-01

According to most academics and policymakers, transparency in monetary policymaking is desirable. I examine this proposition in a small theoretical model emphasizing forward-looking private sector behavior. Transparency makes it easier for price setters to infer the central bank's future policy...... intentions, thereby making current inflation more responsive to policy actions. This induces the central bank to pay more attention to inflation rather than output gap stabilization. Then, transparency may be disadvantageous. It may actually be a policy-distorting straitjacket if the central bank enjoys low...

Implementation of Monetary Policy: How Do Central Banks Set Interest Rates?

OpenAIRE

Benjamin M. Friedman; Kenneth N. Kuttner

2010-01-01

Central banks no longer set the short-term interest rates that they use for monetary policy purposes by manipulating the supply of banking system reserves, as in conventional economics textbooks; today this process involves little or no variation in the supply of central bank liabilities. In effect, the announcement effect has displaced the liquidity effect as the fulcrum of monetary policy implementation. The chapter begins with an exposition of the traditional view of the implementation of ...

Monetary Policy and Nigeria's Economic Development | Akujuobi ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

This study investigated the impact of monetary policy instruments on theeconomic development of Nigeria, using multiple regression technique. Itwas found that cash reserve ratio was significant in impacting on theeconomic development of Nigeria at both 1% and 5% levels of significance,treasury bill at 5.6%, minimum ...

Analysis of monetary and fiscal policy mix

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

2010-12-01

Full Text Available Economies are constantly hit by various shocks-that effect aggregate demand and aggregate supply and have the potential to generate recession or expansion, respective a high level of unemployment and high inflation rate. Governments use fiscal and monetary policies to try to stabilioze the economy.

Monetary Policy in Small Open Economies: The Role of Exchange Rate Rules

OpenAIRE

Santacreu, Ana Maria

2015-01-01

Understanding the costs and benefits of alternative monetary policy rules is important for economic welfare. Within the context of a small open economy model and building on the work of Mihov and Santacreu (2013), the author analyzes the economic implications of two monetary policy rules. The first is a rule in which the central bank uses the nominal exchange rate as its policy instrument and adjusts the rate whenever there are changes in the economic environment. The second is a standard int...

EXPANSIONARY MONETARY POLICY AND THE OPPORTUNITIES FOR RESURGENCE OF INVESTMENT GROWTH IN UKRAINE

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A. Ignatyuk

2014-12-01

Full Text Available This article is analyzed the basic tools of the expansionary monetary policy and its impact on investment growth. It is proposed transformation of monetary policy to activate the innovation processes, in particular by introducing macro-prudential limitations of investment alternatives for the population and strengthening the role of banks with state capital. In article is suggested the methods of National bank, together with the Government to stimulate investment by the use of the allocation of funds through the instruments of monetary expansion.

Interaction between Fiscal and Monetary Policy in a Dynamic Nonlinear Model

Science.gov (United States)

Bertella, Mario A.; Rego, Henio A.; Neris, Celso; Silva, Jonathas N.; Podobnik, Boris; Stanley, H. Eugene

2015-01-01

The objective of this study is to verify the dynamics between fiscal policy, measured by public debt, and monetary policy, measured by a reaction function of a central bank. Changes in monetary policies due to deviations from their targets always generate fiscal impacts. We examine two policy reaction functions: the first related to inflation targets and the second related to economic growth targets. We find that the condition for stable equilibrium is more restrictive in the first case than in the second. We then apply our simulation model to Brazil and United Kingdom and find that the equilibrium is unstable in the Brazilian case but stable in the UK case. PMID:25799581

Is the quantity of government debt a constraint for monetary policy?

OpenAIRE

Mitra, Srobona

2015-01-01

This paper derives an interest rate rule for monetary policy in which the interest rate response of the central bank toward an increase in expected inflation falls as debts increase beyond a certain threshold level. A debt-constrained interest rate rule and the threshold level of debt are jointly estimated for Canada during the first decade of its inflation targeting regime of the 1990s. There are three main findings of this paper. First, a high government debt could constrain monetary policy...

Monetary Policy at Work: Lessons from the FOMC Transcripts.

Science.gov (United States)

Spencer, Roger W.

1996-01-01

Utilizes Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) transcripts to reveal how the Federal Reserve shapes monetary policy. Analysis of the documents shows the Committee examining a wide variety of indicators and approaches in an attempt to determine the appropriate time for a policy change. Inflationary pressures were a preeminent concern. (MJP)

Credit supply and monetary policy : Identifying the bank balance-sheet channel with loan applications

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Jimenez Porras, G.; Ongena, S.; Peydro, J.L.; Saurina, J.

2012-01-01

We analyze the impact of monetary policy on the supply of bank credit. Monetary policy affects both loan supply and demand, thus making identification a steep challenge. We therefore analyze a novel, supervisory dataset with loan applications from Spain. Accounting for time-varying firm

The impact of Monetary Policy on the economic growth of Nigeria ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Studies show that CBN Monetary Policy measures are effective in regulating both the monetary and real sector aggregates such as employment, prices, level of output and the rate of economic growth. Empirical findings from this study indicate that average price and labour force have significant influence on Gross Domestic ...

The Long-Run Effects of the Fed’s Monetary Policy on the Dynamics among Major Asset Classes

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Miao Jia

2016-09-01

Full Text Available It is well known that government monetary policies significantly impact financial markets. There have been numerous studies examining the relationship between monetary policy and the prices of financial assets, including equities and bonds. Little, however, has been done to explore the impact of major financial assets on changes in monetary policies.

Impulse-response analysis of monetary policy – Visegád group countries case

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Kateřina Myšková

2013-01-01

Full Text Available In this paper, we focus on comparability of monetary policies of Visegrád group countries (V4. Main objective of central banks function in V4 countries lies in maintaining price stability. For this purpose, inflation targeting regime is realized in a medium-term focus in V4, which means that there is a certain lag between monetary policy operation and its influence on an inflation target. Central bank does not have a direct impact on its ultimate goals. Therefore, any monetary policy analysis and assumption of its effectiveness comes out from an essential existence of a working transmission mechanism. Thus, changes in settings of monetary policy instruments have to be able to inflict causal changes on intermediary markets and via these markets on target markets. This situation can be modeled by the vector autoregressive (VAR model with suitable variables. Our main task is to compare a relationship between VAR model responses to predefined impulses for all V4 pairs. We use calibration technique for this purpose. Specifically, we will utilize one-dimensional calibration model with a linear calibration function for deriving unknown parameters. Moreover, we will test a significance of estimated parameters. We distinguish between model parameters for before-crisis- and during-crisis- data, because we suppose that financial crisis affects VAR model parameters significantly. Different responses in each country can mean the inability of the common monetary policy for V4 at present.

Customs unions, currency crises, and monetary policy coordination: The case of the Eurasian Economic Union

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Evgeny Vinokurov

2017-09-01

Full Text Available After achieving substantial progress in establishing a common customs territory and regulations, customs unions face potential disruptions due to a lack of monetary policy coordination. These disruptions might appear in the form of currency shocks and the ensuing trade conflicts. We approach this issue by looking at the case of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU. The volatility of national currencies in 2014–2015 resulted in sizable shifts in competitiveness, culminating in a currency crisis in some member states. This raises the questions of how to gradually achieve a more coordinated monetary policy, what monetary policy options are available, and what would be their relative impact on macroeconomic stability. Using a set of modeling tools and econometric models, we review three monetary regimes, which represent moves from fully independent exchange rate policy through increased policy coordination to joint exchange rate setting.

Talking about monetary policy: the virtues (and vice?) of central bank communication

OpenAIRE

Alan Blinder

2009-01-01

Central banks, which used to be so secretive, are communicating more and more these days about their monetary policy. This development has proceeded hand in glove with a burgeoning new scholarly literature on the subject. The empirical evidence, reviewed selectively here, suggests that communication can move financial markets, enhance the predictability of monetary policy decisions, and perhaps even help central banks achieve their goals. A number of theoretical drawbacks to greater communica...

Monetary policy, bank size and bank lending: evidence from Australia(new version)

OpenAIRE

liu, luke

2012-01-01

This study explores how monetary policy changes flow through the banking sector in Australia. Drawing on data between 2004 and 2010, we divide banks into three groups according to their size, and examine the impact of cash rate change on lending of different types of loans. We found the response of bank lending after a monetary policy change varies with the size of the bank as well as the types of loan.

IS THERE A LINK BETWEEN MONETARY POLICY AND RISK PERCEPTION IN EASTERN EUROPEAN COUNTRIES IMPLEMENTING INFLATION TARGETING REGIME?

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Aydan Kansu

2013-04-01

Full Text Available Following the recent financial crisis of August 2007 in US, economists and policy makers hold the view that monetary policy may have an effect on real economic activity through ‘risk taking channel’ which indicates the risk behavior of economic agents and the linkages between monetary policy and perception of risk. In this study, we examine whether changes in monetary policy stance influence the risk perceptions and generates any impact on the real side of the economy in Czech Republic, Poland, Russian Federation and Turkey implementing inflation targeting. In the context of a SVAR model, we find that monetary policy does not affect risk perception reflected by stock price variability and any attempt by central banks to stimulate real economic activity through monetary policy also appears to be ineffective in these countries.

TRANSITION TO INFLATION TARGETING IN UKRAINE: NEW TOOLS FOR MONETARY POLICY

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S. Naumenkova

2015-03-01

Full Text Available Positive experience of inflation targeting in many countries influenced the decision to implement this framework in Ukraine. Authors consider the appropriateness of retaining inflation target under conditions of deteriorating currency market. Uncertainty of forecasts is aggravated by fragile impact of monetary policy on Ukrainian economy in conditions of growing nonlinearity of macroeconomic processes. The authors suggest the possibility of using two channels of transmission mechanism, namely, exchange rate and interest rate, and recommend additional tools to specify targets of monetary policy for the National Bank of Ukraine.

Monetary Policy in the Greenspan Era

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Christensen, Anders Møller; Nielsen, Heino Bohn

2009-01-01

Relationships between the Federal funds rate, unemployment, inflation and the long-term bond rate are investigated with cointegration techniques. We find a stable long-term relationship between the Federal funds rate, unemployment and the bond rate. This relationship is interpretable as a policy...... Taylor-type target, where inflation appears instead of the bond rate, does not seem congruent with the data....... target because deviations are corrected via the Federal funds rate. Deviations of the actual Federal funds rate from the estimated target give simple indications of discretionary monetary policy, and the larger deviations relate to special episodes outside the current information set. A more traditional...

THE IMPACT OF MONETARY AND FISCAL POLICIES ON PUBLIC FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT

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Loredana Ciurlău

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Fiscal policy is the main component of financial policy. Being a component of economic policy, taxation must lead to economic objectives. Maintaining equilibria macroeconomic cannot be blamed solely in charge of monetary policy, fiscal policy and that the revenue must have a role in support and to bear the load efforts to stabilise. Large deficits are dangerous for current account, because they are associated with a greater risk of producing an adjustment steep in the exchange rate and high volatility of exchange rate has major implications on the stability and macroeconomic monetary, in general. This means that countries should his election budgets so as to cope with growing demand from the private sector and to take necessary safeguard measures against potential crises, whereas the extent fiscal deficit contributes directly to the magnitude current account deficit.

Essays on globalization, monetary policy and financial crisis'

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Qian, Z.

2012-01-01

This thesis focuses on three interlinked topics. Chapter 2 studies the determinants of sovereign CDS spreads in Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain during the recent global financial crisis and European debt crisis. Chapter 3 introduces a model on the interactions between monetary policy

Treasury bond volatility and uncertainty about monetary policy

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Arnold, I.J.M.; Vrugt, E.B.

2010-01-01

We show that dispersion-based uncertainty about the future course of monetary policy is the single most important determinant of Treasury bond volatility across all maturities. The link between Treasury bond volatility and uncertainty about macroeconomic variables is much stronger than for the more

The impact of monetary policy on output and inflation in India: A frequency domain analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Salunkhe Bhavesh

2017-01-01

Full Text Available In the recent past, several attempts by the RBI to control inflation through tight monetary policy have ended up slowing the growth process, thereby provoking prolonged discussion among academics and policymakers about the efficacy of monetary policy in India. Against this backdrop, the present study attempts to estimate the causal relationship between monetary policy and its final objectives; i.e., growth, and controlling inflation in India. The methodological tool used is testing for Granger Causality in the frequency domain as developed by Lemmens et al. (2008, and monetary policy has been proxied by the weighted average call money rate. In view of the fact that output gap is one of the determinants of future inflation, an attempt has also been made to study the causal relationship between output gap and inflation. The results of empirical estimation show a bi-directional causality between policy rate and inflation and between policy rate and output, which implies that the monetary authorities in India were equally concerned about inflation and output growth when determining policy. Furthermore, any attempt to control inflation affects output with the same or even greater magnitude than inflation, thereby damaging the growth process. The relationship between output gap and inflation was found to be positive, as reported in earlier studies for India. Furthermore, the output gap causes inflation only in the short-tomediumrun.

Monetary Policy Implications of Electronic Money

OpenAIRE

Berentsen, Aleksander

1997-01-01

The term digital money refers to various proposed electronic payment mechanisms designed for use by consumers to make retail payments. Digital money products have the potential to replace central bank currency, thereby affecting the money supply. This paper studies the effect of replacing central bank currency on the narrowly defined stock of money under various assumptions regarding regulatory policies and monetary operations of central banks and the reaction of the banking system.

Expanding Decent Employment in Kenya: The Role of Monetary Policy, Inflation Control, and the Exchange Rate

OpenAIRE

Robert Pollin; James Heintz

2007-01-01

This IPC Country Study by Robert Pollin and James Heintz examines three policy areas related to monetary policies in Kenya: inflation dynamics and the relationship between inflation and long-run growth; monetary policy targets and instruments; and exchange rate dynamics and the country?s external balance. It concludes with five main policy recommendations

Impact of the joint-stock reform of commercial banks on the effectiveness of monetary policy in China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fang Xianming

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Over the past decade, the Chinese government has conducted the joint-stock reform of state-owned commercial banks. The joint-stock reform improves the marketization level of the ownership structure of commercial banks and consequently leads to impacts on the effectiveness of monetary policy. This paper first presents the impacting mechanisms of the joint-stock reform of commercial banks on the effectiveness of monetary policy and then constructs an empirical model to test those impacts. The empirical results show that the increasing degree of joint-stock reform of commercial banks enhances the effectiveness of expansionary monetary policy but weakens the effectiveness of contractionary monetary policy in China.

The Vietnamese lending rate, policy-related rate, and monetary policy post-1997 Asian financial crisis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chu V. Nguyen

2015-12-01

Full Text Available Asymmetries in the Vietnamese lending central bank’s policy-related rate spread were documented. Empirical results revealed that the spread adjusts to the threshold faster when the central bank’s policy-related rates decrease relative to the lending rates than when the central bank’s policy-related rates move in the opposite direction. Additionally, the empirical findings indicate that Vietnamese commercial banks exhibit competitive rate setting behavior which may be attributable to graft maximization by bank’s management. The results also show bidirectional Granger causality between the Vietnamese lending rate and the central bank’s policy-related rate, indicating that the lending rate and the central bank’s policy-related rate affect each other’s movements. These results suggest that monetary authority can use its countercyclical monetary policy instruments to achieve its macroeconomics objectives. However, the estimation results of the GARCH (2, 3-in-Mean model suggest that they should intervene more frequently and by small policy measures to minimize the conditional variance of the spread to minimize the magnitude of the cycle of the lending rate.

Fiscal and monetary policies in complex evolving economies

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Dosi, G.; Fagiolo, G.; Napoletano, M.; Roventini, A.; Treibich, T.G.

2014-01-01

In this paper we explore the effects of alternative combinations of fiscal and monetary policies under different income distribution regimes. In particular, we aim at evaluating fiscal rules in economies subject to banking crises and deep recessions. We do so using an agent-based model populated by

Determinacy, Stock Market Dynamics and Monetary Policy Inertia

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pfajfar, Damjan; Santoro, Emiliano

the vantage of equilibrium uniqueness. We show that this reaction function is isomorphic to a rule with an interest rate smoothing term, whose magnitude increases in the degree of aggressiveness towards asset prices growth. As shown by Bullard and Mitra (2007, Determinacy, learnability, and monetary policy...

International Monetary Policy Coordination in a New Keynesian Model with NICE Features

Science.gov (United States)

Poutineau, Jean-Christophe; Vermandel, Gauthier

2018-01-01

The authors provide a static two-country new Keynesian model to teach two related questions in international macroeconomics: the international transmission of unilateral monetary policy decisions and the gains coming from the coordination monetary rules. They concentrate on "normal times" and use a thoroughly graphical approach to…

The implications of structural asymmetries for monetary policy and welfare in a small open economy: a linear quadratic framework

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Rychalovska, Yuliya

-, č. 380 (2008), s. 1-56 ISSN 1211-3298 R&D Projects: GA MŠk LC542 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z70850503 Keywords : DSGE models * non-traded goods * optimal monetary policy Subject RIV: AH - Economics http://www.cerge-ei.cz/pdf/wp/Wp380.pdf

The narrative approach for the identification of monetary policy shocks in small open economies

OpenAIRE

Eleni Angelopoulou

2007-01-01

This paper reviews 22 years of UK monetary policy (1971-1992) using official record from the Quarterly Bulletin of the Bank of England. A definition of policy shocks, which allows for the exclusion of cases of interest rate increases, which were unrelated to the monetary policy objectives, is used. The empirical analysis shows that output displays the usual hump-shaped response after a shock to the policy indicator but adjustment to pre-shock levels is slow. Other variables also display theor...

MODELING MONETARY POLICY RULES IN THE MENACOUNTRIES: ISSUES AND EVIDENCE

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Mohamad Husam Helmi

2011-07-01

Full Text Available This paper estimates the monetary policy reaction function for two sets of MENAcountries: The inflation target countries, (Turkeyand Israel and the exchange ratetarget countries, (Jordan and Morocco. We motivateour empirical analysis byanalyzing a simple Taylor rule. This model looks atthe effects of inflation andoutput on setting the interest rate by the centralbank. Furthermore, we extendedour model by adding the exchange rate and the foreign interest rate using similarmodel used by Clarida et al (1998 with using GMM estimator.Findings of this study yield some interesting results,all the central banks in thesample uses interest rate smoothing in managing their monetary policy. Inaddition, The Central bank in Turkey, Israel and Morocco focuses on achievinglow level of inflation. On the other hand, the Monetary Authority in Jordan caresabout stabilizing the output gap. Estimating the extended Taylor rule suggests thehighly significant effect of foreign interest rateon setting the interest rate inTurkey. Taken all together, the results lend support to the importance of followinga rule rather than discretionary in reducing the inflation rate and crediblemonetary policy. In addition, the simple Taylor rule can be applied on MENAcountries but it requires some modification such asadding the exchange rate andthe foreign interest rate.

monetary policies and credit financing as factors in agricultural ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

controls the supply of money. This assumes the ... input supply, marketing services and of course credit supply. Provision of ... credit in state, assess the impact of credit on agricultural ..... Inflation targeting be a framework for monetary policy.

The Changing Effectiveness of Monetary Policy

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Jonathan E. Leightner

2013-11-01

Full Text Available In the wake of the 2008 financial crisis, many countries are hoping that massive increases in their money supplies will revive their economies. Evaluating the effectiveness of this strategy using traditional statistical methods would require the construction of an extremely complex economic model of the world that showed how each country’s situation affected all other countries. No matter how complex that model was, it would always be subject to the criticism that it had omitted important variables. Omitting important variables from traditional statistical methods ruins all estimates and statistics. This paper uses a relatively new statistical method that solves the omitted variables problem. This technique produces a separate slope estimate for each observation which makes it possible to see how the estimated relationship has changed over time due to omitted variables. I find that the effectiveness of monetary policy has fallen between the first quarter of 2003 and the fourth quarter of 2012 by 14%, 36%, 38%, 32%, 29% and 69% for Japan, the UK, the USA, the Euro area, Brazil, and the Russian Federation respectively. I hypothesize that monetary policy is suffering from diminishing returns because it cannot address the fundamental problem with the world’s economy today; that problem is a global glut of savings that is either sitting idle or funding speculative bubbles.

The Impact of the Great Recession on Monetary and Fiscal Policy in Developed Market Economies

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Šehović Damir

2015-03-01

Full Text Available Background: With the occurrence of the crisis in 2007, which caused the largest economic contraction since the Great Depression in the thirties, it has become evident that the previous understanding of strategies, effects and roles of monetary and fiscal policy should be redefined. Objectives: The aim of this paper is to illustrate a possible expected change in monetary and fiscal policy in developed market economies that could occur as a consequence of the Great Recession. Methods/Approach: The paper provides a comparative analysis of various primary economic variables related to the developed OECD countries, as well as the empirical testing of the selected theoretical assumptions. Results: The changes in monetary policy refer to the question of raising target inflation, considering a possible use of aggregate price level targeting and paying attention to the role of central banks in suppressing the formation of an asset bubble. The success of fiscal policy in attaining stabilization depends on the size of possible fiscal measures and creation of automatic stabilizers. Conclusions: For the most part, monetary and fiscal policies will still stay unchanged, although some segments of these policies need to be improved.

The Relative Effectiveness of Monetary and Fiscal Policies in ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

The Relative Effectiveness of Monetary and Fiscal Policies in Economic ... the St. Louis model of the Federal Reserve Bank of USA by Anderson and Jordan 1978. ... the extent of the quantitative impact and relative significance of the variables ...

Monetary and Fiscal Policy Interactions in the Czech Republic

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Pavel Rezabek

2018-06-01

Full Text Available The paper provides empirical analysis of interactions between monetary and fiscal policy in the Czech Republic and document changes in policy conduct across the time. To this end, we build and estimate a six-variable Bayesian VAR and propose some refinements to the modelling framework. These improvements make it possible to better capture the main features of the economic system populated by both macroeconomic policy authorities. The results point to the lack of complementarity between policy actions adopted by the authorities and suggest that there is still enough room for enhancing the effectiveness of economic policies.

MONETARY POLICY AND INFLATION TARGETING IN A SMALL OPEN ECONOMY

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Antoni Antoni

2011-09-01

Full Text Available The danger of inflation has been the focus of many central banks. This paper analyzes the transmission mechanism of monetary policy and inflation targeting in Malaysia with a backward-looking aggregate supply and demand analysis. The manage floating regime applied in the country has an important role in achieving a stable exchange rate against its major trading partners. It also analyzes the policy of maintaining the soundness of interest rate to perceive inflation targeting to increase its economic growth. Using 1991-2004 data and a traditional structural econometric model, it shows that output gap is important in forecasting a domestic inflation rate by controlling the interest rate.  Keywords: Inflation targeting, monetary economics, structural econometric modelJEL classification numbers: E3, E52

The Narrative Approach for the Identification of Monetary Policy Shocks in a Small Open Economy

OpenAIRE

Eleni Angelopoulou

2007-01-01

This paper reviews 22 years of UK monetary policy in the pre-inflation targeting period (1971-1992) using official record from the Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin. A transparent definition of policy episodes is used. The empirical analysis shows that output displays the usual hump-shaped response after a shock to the policy indicator. All variables display theory-consistent behaviour. Monetary policy and exchange rate volatility are found to cause substantial output fluctuation in a four y...

MONETARY POLICY RULE FOR POLAND – RESULTS FOR VARIOUS SPECIFACTIONS

OpenAIRE

Pawel Baranowski

2011-01-01

The aim of the paper is to analyse monetary policy rules for Poland. We estimate models based on the proposition of Taylor, augmented with interest rate smoothing. We deal with the case of instantaneous as well as forward-looking relationship between interest rate and inflation. In the latter case, the proposition of data-rich reaction function was also considered. The evidence show that Polish monetary authority reaction to inflation is strong, contrary to the output gap. In addition, we fou...

The importance and role of the Central Bank in the creation of a healthy monetary and investment policy

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Šmigić-Miladinović Jasmina

2016-01-01

Full Text Available The paper's starting point is finding an answer to the question: What kind of monetary policy should be followed by the Central bank in new market circumstances? As a major monetary institution, the Central bank should provide credibility for its monetary policy, which is particularly important during a macroeconomic stabilisation. In order to choose the most appropriate monetary policy, its creators should be familiar with the monetary policy's effects on economic activities, first of all on investment activities and the period in which they may occur. The Central bank uses its special status and authorisations to control monetary trends, to keep and handle foreign exchange reserves, to keep banks' required reserves, to manage the country's debt, to be the final creditor of the banking system, to take care of the banking system's liquidity. That is why the Central bank has become important for the functioning of the whole financial market, and especially the monetary market. The Central bank has both direct and indirect influence on the most important events on financial markets, financial system, as well as a wider influence - on a country's whole economy. In order to envisage the financial market's impact on monetary and investment policies, one should begin with the Central bank's role on the financial market, and at the same time analyse the financial market's instruments and institutions.

Assessing Volatilities of Monetary Policy and their Effects on the Islamic and Conventional Stock Markets in Indonesia

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M Shabri Abd Majid

2018-03-01

Full Text Available The main objective of this study is to empirically assess the volatilities of the monetary policy instruments and their effects on the Indonesian Islamic and conventional stock market. The changes in exchange rate, interest rates, and money supply and their effects on the stock markets are investigated using the using the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity frameworks. As a big-open economy, the capital market of Indonesia is vulnerable to the global monetary shocks changes, thus the US federal funds rate is also incorporated into the GARCH model. The study documented that, with the exception of the US interest rate, the volatilities of all monetary policy variables of interest rate, exchange rate, and money supply were documented affecting the volatilities of both Islamic and conventional stock markets. These findings imply that the volatilities of Islamic and conventional stock markets have similar determinants, thus to stabilize the markets, the investigated monetary policy variables should be controlled for by the policy-makers. Any monetary policy design imposed by the policy-makers would have a similar effect on both conventional and Islamic stocks in Indonesia.DOI: 10.15408/sjie.v7i2.7352

Inflation Expectations and Monetary Policy Design : Evidence from the Laboratory (Replaces CentER DP 2009-007)

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Pfajfar, D.; Zakelj, B.

2011-01-01

Using laboratory experiments within a New Keynesian macro framework, we explore the formation of inflation expectations and its interaction with monetary policy design. The central question in this paper is how to design monetary policy in the environment characterized by heterogeneous expectations.

The Implementation of Monetary Policy in an Emerging Economy: The Case of Chile

OpenAIRE

Christian A Johnson; Rodrigo Vergara

2005-01-01

Central bank authorities base implementation of monetary policy on an analysis of multiple variables known as monetary policy indicators. In a small open economy such as Chile, these indicators may include in-flation misalignments, unemployment, GDP growth, money growth, the current account balance, exchange rate volatility and international re-serves. A neural network approach is used to establish the correspond-ing weights considered by the Board of the Central Bank of Chile dur-ing the per...

Money and the Transmission of Monetary Policy

OpenAIRE

Seth Carpenter; Selva Demiralp

2009-01-01

The transmission mechanism of monetary policy has received extensive treatment in the macroeconomic literature. Most models currently used for macroeconomic analysis exclude money or else model money demand as entirely endogenous. Nevertheless, academic research and many textbooks continue to use the money multiplier concept in discussions of money. We explore the institutional structure of the transmission mechanism beginning with open market operations through to money and loans to document...

Financial Inclusion and Monetary Policy: A Review of Recent Studies

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Ghana Journal of Development Studies ... in addition to cross-country and regional studies on the impact of financial inclusion on monetary policy using panel data. Keywords: Financial Inclusion, Financial Development, Financial Innovation, ...

Analysis of the Effect of Monetary Policy Development on Equity ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

2012-12-01

Dec 1, 2012 ... square regression (OLS) was run using five monetary policy variables including minimum re- discount ... investment consciousness of investors in .... operator based on information available to ...... This might account for the.

Did capital market convergence lower the effectiveness of the interest rate as a monetary policy tool?

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Jansen, Pieter W.

2006-01-01

International capital market convergence reduces the ability for monetary authorities to set domestic monetary conditions. Traditionally, monetary policy transmission is channelled through the short-term interest rate. Savings and investment decisions are effected through the response of the bond

Adjustment to Monetary Policy and Devaluation Under Two-Tier and Fixed Exchange Rate Regimes

OpenAIRE

Joshua Aizenman

1983-01-01

The purpose of this paper is to determine whether a two-tier exchange rate regime is more effective than a fixed rate regime in increasing acountry's ability to pursue an independent monetary policy in the short run.The analysis compares adjustment to a monetary policy and to a devaluation in the two exchange rate regimes in a portfolio model under imperfect asset substitutability. It is shown that the two policies have in the short run larger effects on interest rates under a two-tier regime...

Money supply growth and inflation – the monetary policy strategy of the European Central Bank

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Svatopluk Kapounek

2007-01-01

Full Text Available The main aim of this article is to find out whether there is a significant relationship between money supply growth and inflation in the Eurozone. For this reason, the monetary policy strategy of the European Central Bank (ECB has been evaluated. Since the establishment of the ECB in January 1999 to May 2003 the ECB‘s monetary policy strategy consisted of three main elements: a quantitative definition of price stability, a prominent role for money in the assessment of risks to price stability (aggregate M3 as a reference value, and a broadly based assessment of the outlook for price developments. Nevertheless, since May 2003 M3 or any other monetary aggregate has lost its prominent role in the ECB‘s strategy. Therefore the nowadays ECB‘s monetary policy strategy consists of a quantitative definition of the primary objective of price stability and an analytical framework based on two pillars – economic analysis and monetary analysis. These two pillars are used by the ECB‘s Governing Council in the overall assessment of risks to price stability and in monetary policy decisions.The empirical part of this article is based on time series correlation between money supply growth and inflation in selected member countries of the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU - Eurozone during the period 1995–2005. The time series are divided into two parts. The first part covers data for selected member countries of the European Union from 1995 till 1998, i.e. before the establishment of the EMU. Whereas the second part includes data for the whole Eurozone since its official start in 1999 to 2005. The time series are adjusted by SARIMA models.

Housing and the Monetary Transmission Mechanism

OpenAIRE

Frederic S. Mishkin

2007-01-01

The housing market is of central concern to monetary policy makers. To achieve the dual goals of price stability and maximum sustainable employment, monetary policy makers must understand the role that housing plays in the monetary transmission mechanism if they are to set policy instruments appropriately. In this paper, I examine what we know about the role of housing in the monetary transmission mechanism and then explore the implications of this knowledge for the conduct of monetary policy...

The Bank of Canada's Monetary Policy Framework; Have Recent Changes Enhanced Central Bank Credibility?

OpenAIRE

Takatoshi Ito; Brenda Gonzalez-Hermosillo

1997-01-01

In recent years the Bank of Canada has made important changes in the way it conducts monetary policy. In particular, the bank has adopted explicit inflation targets and introduced significant changes to its operational framework designed to increase transparency and reduce market uncertainty. This paper examines the key issues associated with the recent changes in the Bank of Canada’s monetary policy framework and analyzes various indicators of central bank credibility.

The Asymmetric Effects of Monetary Policy and Bank Credits in Taiwan Banking Industry - A Dynamic Panel Data Analysis

OpenAIRE

Jui-Chuan Chang; Ching-Chuan Tsong; Chieh-Tsung Wu

2010-01-01

This paper investigates whether distributional effect arising from the impact of monetary policy on bank credits will be different when monetary policy is asymmetric. Methodologically, we use a set of high frequency panel data for Taiwan commercial banks and adopt Arellano and Bond's (1991) generalized method of moments approach to conduct our empirical analysis. First of all, we investigate whether there exist the distributional effects of monetary policy on bank lending behavior which is as...

Indirect Monetary Policy Reforms and Output Growth in Nigeria: An ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

BRRE). The efforts in repositioning these banks through the current banking reforms (recapitalization and consolidation) the paper notes are a right step in the right direction. Keywords: Indirect monetary policy, Granger – causality, output growth

The co-movement of monetary policy and its time-varying nature: A DCCA approach

Science.gov (United States)

Rohit, Abhishek; Mitra, Subrata Kumar

2018-02-01

Employing a novel methodology of DCCA cross-correlation coefficient (ρDCCA), this study attempts to provide fresh evidences for the co-movement of monetary policies of the advanced (AEs) as well as the emerging economies (EMEs) vis-à-vis the United States. A higher degree of monetary co-movement as measured by ρDCCA values, is identified for the AEs as compared to the EMEs. Lower co-movement of monetary policy is especially noticeable in the short run for EMEs. We further investigate the time-varying nature of such co-movements for the AEs by splitting the period (1980-2014) into four sub periods and also by performing a rolling window estimation for the entire period to reveal smoother dynamics. Significant evidence of higher monetary coordination is revealed for sub-periods with stronger trade and financial linkages.

Fiscal policy and its implications for monetary and financial stability

OpenAIRE

Bank for International Settlements

2011-01-01

The BIS 10th Annual Conference took place in Lucerne, Switzerland on 23-24 June 2011. The event brought together senior representatives of central banks and academic institutions, who exchanged views on the conference theme of "Fiscal policy and its implications for monetary and financial stability". This volume contains the opening address of Stephen Cecchetti (Economic Adviser, BIS), a keynote address from Martin Feldstein, and the contributions of the policy panel on "Fiscal policy sustain...

Hazardous Times for Monetary Policy : What do Twenty-three Million Bank Loans Say about the Effects of Monetary Policy on Credit Risk?

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Jiminez, G.; Ongena, S.; Saurina, J.

2007-01-01

We investigate the impact of the stance and path of monetary policy on the level of credit risk of individual bank loans and on lending standards. We employ the Credit Register of the Bank of Spain that contains detailed monthly information on virtually all loans granted by all credit institutions

Le politiche monetarie in Italia dalla Golden age alle “oil crisis” nelle Relazioni della Banca d’Italia (Monetary Policy in Italy According to the 'Relazioni' of the Bank of Italy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Donatella Strangio

2017-03-01

Full Text Available Monetary policy, in recent years, is often invoked as a panacea for a severe recession that is affecting Europe, in particular Italy from 2010. This paper will examine how monetary policy reacted in times of crisis before the currency reform implemented with EMS, the main step towards the single currency. In this paper we were used the sources of the Relations of the Bank of Italy to highlight the role played by this institution in the monetary policy and the use of this policy.

Essays on systematic and unsystematic monetary and fiscal policies

OpenAIRE

Cimadomo, Jacopo

2008-01-01

The active use of macroeconomic policies to smooth economic fluctuations and, as aconsequence, the stance that policymakers should adopt over the business cycle, remaincontroversial issues in the economic literature.In the light of the dramatic experience of the early 1930s’ Great Depression, Keynes (1936)argued that the market mechanism could not be relied upon to spontaneously recover froma slump, and advocated counter-cyclical public spending and monetary policy to stimulatedemand. Albeit ...

Credit markets and the propagation of monetary policy shocks

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Boháček, Radim; Mendizábal, H. R.

2007-01-01

Roč. 39, č. 6 (2007), s. 1429-1455 ISSN 0022-2879 R&D Projects: GA AV ČR IAA700850602 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z70850503 Keywords : credit * monetary policy shock * heterogeneous agents Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 0.947, year: 2007

Managing heterogeneous and unanchored expectations: a monetary policy analysis

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hommes, C.; Lustenhouwer, J.

2016-01-01

We study monetary policy in a New Keynesian model with heterogeneity in expectations. Agents may choose from a continuum of forecasting rules and adjust their expectations based on relative past performance. The extent to which expectations are anchored to the fundamentals of the economy turns out

Monetary Policy and the Taylor Principle in Open Economies

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Linnemann, L.; Schabert, A.

2006-01-01

Nowadays, central banks mostly conduct monetary policy by setting nominal interest rates. A widely held view is that central banks can stabilize inflation if they follow the Taylor principle, which requires raising the nominal interest rate more than one-for-one in response to higher inflation. Is

An empirical analysis of Singapore’s monetary and exchange rate policies in the 1990s

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

R.C. MAYSAMI

1998-03-01

Full Text Available The economy of Singapore has remained relatively unscathed from the Asian currency crisis of 1997 and 1998 which has severely crippled the markets of Hong Kong, Indonesia, and Malaysia. The Monetary Authority of Singapore, which has overseen the country's financial development since the 1960s, has maintained sound monetary policy which has saved the economy from ruin. The government, unlike those of other countries, has also regulated real estate loans and land development and has strengthened its basic services of telecommunications and transport. The present work seeks to re-examine the conflict between monetary stability and exchange rate objectives. The authors seek to find out which policy goal the Monetary Authority of Singapore has been and should be more interested in.

Impact Of Monetary Policy On Financial Asset Returns: An Analysis ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Impact Of Monetary Policy On Financial Asset Returns: An Analysis Of Selected Stocks From The Nigerian Capital Market. ... Journal of Research in National Development. Journal Home · ABOUT THIS JOURNAL · Advanced Search · Current ...

La politica monetaria in Italia dal 1947 al 1978 (Monetary policy in Italy from 1947 to 1978

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. FAZIO

2014-03-01

Full Text Available Since the Second World War, monetary policy in Italy has taken on a fundamental role in the control of the production cycle, the balance daily payments and prices. The present study analyzes the reasons for and effects of monetary policy over the last decade, when destabilizing impulses, both internal and external, became more frequent and intense and as a result required numerous interventions. The author also considers  the stabilization policies of 1947-48 as well as those of the sixties, the control of interest rates and the evolution of monetary aggregates during the periods of development of the fifties and sixties, highlighting the similarities and differences in the instruments and performance with respect to the actions taken in the most recent period. The description is implemented in chronological order, situating the analysis of monetary policy actions in the context of economic developments, and in relation to other economic policy measures.JEL: E52, E43 

Overdeterminacy and endogenous cycles: Trygve Haavelmo’s business cycle model and its implications for monetary policy

OpenAIRE

Kallåk Anundsen , André; Sigurd Holmsen Krogh, Tord; Nymoen, Ragnar; Vislie, Jon

2011-01-01

This paper presents the business cycle model that Trygve Haavelmo developed as part of his research program in macroeconomic and monetary theory. Driven by a mismatch between the marginal return to capital and the rate of return required by capital owners, this model generates endogenous cycles. The theory leads to a distinct analysis of the scope and limitations of monetary policy. A main message of the model is that care should be taken when conducting 'autonomous' monetary policy and that ...

Monetary policy efficiency in the economies of Central Asia

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Isakova, Asel

2008-01-01

Roč. 58, 11-12 (2008), s. 525-553 ISSN 0015-1920 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z70850503 Keywords : monetary policy * Central Asia * dollarization Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 0.275, year: 2008 http://journal.fsv.cuni.cz/storage/1147_str_525_553_-_isakova.pdf

Exchange rate regimes and monetary arrangements

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ivan Ribnikar

2005-06-01

Full Text Available There is a close relationship between a country’s exchange rate regime and monetary arrangement and if we are to examine monetary arrangements then exchange rate regimes must first be analysed. Within the conventional and most widely used classification of exchange rate regimes into rigid and flexible or into polar regimes (hard peg and float on one side, and intermediate regimes on the other there, is a much greater variety among intermediate regimes. A more precise and, as will be seen, more useful classification of exchange rate regimes is the first topic of the paper. The second topic is how exchange rate regimes influence or determine monetary arrangements and monetary policy or monetary policy regimes: monetary autonomy versus monetary nonautonomy and discretion in monetary policy versus commitment in monetary policy. Both topics are important for countries on their path to the EU and the euro area

Monetary Policy Delelgation and Transparency of Policy Targets: A Positive Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

2011-06-01

neoclassical time- inconsistency framework, monetary policy is modeled as a two-stage game between the private sector and the central bank as...simple neoclassical model and keep it to a minimum complexity which suffices to derive the results. The applied game-theoretic framework stands in the...accountability may imply that central banks choose lo be opaque. Applying the theory of bureau- cracy to the ECB. Forder (2002) argues that central banks

Monetary Policy and Industrial Output in the BRICS Countries: A Markov-Switching Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kutu Adebayo Augustine

2017-12-01

Full Text Available This paper examines whether the five BRICS countries share similar business cycles and determines the probability of any of the countries moving from a contractionary regime to an expansionary regime. The study further examines the extent to which changes in monetary policy affect industrial output in expansions relative to contractions. Employing the Peersman and Smets (2001 Markov-Switching Model (MSM and monthly data from 1994.01–2013.12, the study reveals that the five BRICS countries have similar business cycles. The results further demonstrate that the BRICS countries’ business cycles are characterized by two distinct growth rate phases: a contractionary regime and an expansionary regime. It can also be observed that the area-wide monetary policy has significantly large effects on industrial output in recessions as well as in booms. It has also been established that there is a high probability of moving from state one (recession to state two (expansion and that on average, the probabilities of staying in state 2 (expansion are high for each of the five countries. It is, therefore, recommended that the BRICS countries should sustain uniform policy consistency (monetary policy, especially as they formulate and implement economic policies to stimulate industrial output.

Monetary Policy, Investment and Non-Fundamental Shocks

OpenAIRE

Fernando Alexandre

2002-01-01

Using a sticky price model with endogenous investment and adjustment costs we analyse the benefits of monetary policy reacting to asset prices, when investment is under the influence of a non-fundamental shock, both for inflation-forecast targeting rules and for Taylor rules. We conclude that in this context there are benefits from reacting to asset prices that result from a more stable output gap, which is the consequence of a much lower volatility in firms’ investment. Howeve...

Monetary policy strategy in a global environment

OpenAIRE

Moutot, Philippe; Vitale, Giovanni

2009-01-01

This paper discusses the structural implications of real and financial globalisation, with the aim of drawing lessons for the conduct of monetary policy and, in particular, for the assessment of risks to price stability. The first conclusion of the paper is that globalisation may have played only a limited role in reducing inflation and output volatility in developed economies. Central banks should remain focused on their mandate to preserve price stability. However, the globalisation of fina...

TRANSMISSION MECHANISM OF MONETARY POLICY IN TERMS OF VIETNAM

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

The Dong Phung

2013-01-01

Full Text Available In order to conduct an effective monetary policy, the Central bank should have a clear understanding of the mechanism of the money transfer and the importance of different transmission channels, and the impact of these transmission channels on the sectors of the economy, especially on the manufacturing sector.

MONETARY POLICY SHOCKS AND ISLAMIC BANKS DEPOSITS IN INDONESIAN DUAL BANKING SYSTEM AFTER THE FINANCIAL CRISIS

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Ahmad Affandi

2017-03-01

Full Text Available Use of riba (usury in the economic system remained a key factor that led to financial crisis since theinception of modern economy in the late of 17th century. Implementation of interest based monetary policystipulated rampant speculation as common practices in the global financial sector. Although Islamic bankingwas governed by syariah (Divine Law, which was assumed to be resilient from distress, the volatility ofinterest movement would generally affect Islamic banks operations in a dual banking system. This paperwould look at this issue and would empirically explore the dynamic inter-relationships between deposits ofIslamic banks with monetary policy variables in Indonesia. In terms of market share, as of 2009, Islamicbanking asset in Indonesia was a meager 2%. The industry had been affected by few monetary policy shockson its deposits and financing. The study would employ vector auto regression model (VAR to explore thedynamics between the variables. The study would focus on data from 2004 to 2008 or performance after theAsian financial crisis. The results from these tests determined that shariah based deposits played significantrole in transmitting monetary policy effects to the economy. This study found that Islamic banking depositsin Indonesia were not sensitive to monetary policy changes. This study also concluded that IndonesianIslamic banks were resilient to financial crisis.

Better Monetary Control may Increase the Inflationary Bias of Policy

NARCIS (Netherlands)

O.H. Swank (Otto)

1994-01-01

textabstractExplores the implications of imperfect monetary control and uncertainty about the trade-off between output and inflation to discretionary policy. Impact of imperfect control of money growth on policymakers' incentive to create surprises; Consequences of imperfect control of money growth

Financial stability, wealth effects and optimal macroeconomic policy combination in the United Kingdom: A new-Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium framework

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Muhammad Ali Nasir

2016-12-01

Full Text Available This study derives an optimal macroeconomic policy combination for financial sector stability in the United Kingdom by employing a New Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (NK-DSGE framework. The empirical results obtained show that disciplined fiscal and accommodative monetary policies stance is optimal for financial sector stability. Furthermore, fiscal indiscipline countered by contractionary monetary stance adversely affects financial sector stability. Financial markets, e.g. stocks and Gilts show a short-term asymmetric response to macroeconomic policy interaction and to each other. The asymmetry is a reflection of portfolio adjustment. However in the long-run, the responses to suggested optimal policy combination had homogenous effects and there was evidence of co-movement in the stock and Gilt markets.

Beurteilung der Wirksamkeit und mögliche Risiken der aktuellen Geldpolitik des Eurosystems. Assessment of effectiveness and potential risks of the Eurosystems recent monetary policy

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Armin Rohde

2015-12-01

Full Text Available In the present article effectiveness and potential risks of recently implemented non-conventional monetary policy measures by the Eurosystem are discussed. The goal of research is to show that an additional use of non-conventional monetary policy measures is meaningless to stimulate lending behaviour of the banking system in the Euro-area. At the background of the state of conventional monetary policy today, which in short is characterized by unlimited and free of charge allotment possibilities of central bank money to monetary financial institutions, there exist no monetary policy restrictions which prevent lending behaviour of the banking system. So alternative intentions of the European Central Bank are discussed in this article, why non-conventional monetary policy measures had been implemented. In this context it is shown, that the use of single non-conventional monetary policy measures as well as the whole arrangements of the recently very expansive monetary policy involve considerable potential risks, which can inflict severe problems to monetary policy in the future.

Hazardous times for monetary policy : What do twenty-three million bank loans say about the effects of monetary policy on credit risk-taking?

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Jiménez, G.; Ongena, S.; Peydro, J.L.; Saurina, J.

2014-01-01

We identify the effects of monetary policy on credit risk-taking with an exhaustive credit register of loan applications and contracts. We separate the changes in the composition of the supply of credit from the concurrent changes in the volume of supply and quality, and the volume of demand. We

Monetary policy and wage bargaining in the EMU: restrictive ECB policies, high unemployment, nominal wage restraint and inflation above the target

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Eckhard Hein

2002-09-01

Full Text Available Assessing the effects of monetary policy and wage bargaining on employment andinflation in the European Monetary Union (EMU, the first step sees development of a Post-Keynesian competitive claims model of inflation with endogenous money. In this model the NAIRU is considered to be a short-run limit to employment enforced by independent and conservative central banks. In the long run, however, the NAIRU will follow actual unemployment and is therefore also dependent on the forces determining aggregate demand, including monetary policies. But the NAIRU may also be reduced through effectively co-ordinated wage bargaining, as has been shown by institutional political economists. Applying these considerations to the economic performance of the EMU, different scenarios determined by wage bargainingcoordination and the European Central Bank's (ECB monetary policies are developed. It is shown that the first phase of the EMU was dominated by uncoordinated wage bargaining across the EMU and an "anti-growth-bias" of theECB. Thus the euro area was plagued with nominal wage restraint, highunemployment and inflation above the ECB target. Economic performance will improve if the ECB abandons its asymmetric monetary strategy. This may be facilitated by a higher degree of effective wage bargaining co-ordination across the EMU.

OPTIMIZATION OF THE RUSSIAN MACROECONOMIC POLICY FOR 2016-2020

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Gilmundinov V. M.

2016-12-01

Full Text Available This paper is concerned with the methodological issues of economic policy elaboration and optimization of economic policy instruments’ parameters. Actuality of this research is provided by growing complexity of social and economic systems, important state role in their functioning as well as multi-targets of economic policy with limited number of instruments. Considering a big variety of internal and external restrictions of social and economic development of modern Russia it has wide range of applications. Extension of the dynamic econometric general equilibrium input-output model of the Russian economy with development of the sub-model of economic policy optimization is a key purpose of this study. The sub-model of economic policy optimization allows estimating impact of economic policy measures on target indicators as well as defining optimal values of their parameters. For this purpose, we extend Robert Mundell’s approach by considering dynamic optimization and wider range of economic policy targets and measures. Use of general equilibrium input-output model allows considering impact of economic policy on different aggregate markets and sectors. Approbation of suggested approach allows us to develop multi-variant forecast for the Russian economy for 2016-2020, define optimal values of monetary policy parameters and compare considered variants by values of social losses. The obtained results could be further used in theoretical as well as applied researches concerned with issues of economic policy elaboration and forecasting of social and economic development.

Financial Inclusion and Monetary Policy: A Review of Recent Studies

African Journals Online (AJOL)

2017-05-01

May 1, 2017 ... financial inclusion and its implications for monetary policy and financial stability. ... These studies have discussed the implications of financial exclusion for the parameters ... and allocating capital, monitoring firms and exerting corporate ... decisions, and technological innovations and hence economic ...

Housing Bubbles and Monetary Policy: A Reassessment

OpenAIRE

O'Meara, Graeme

2015-01-01

This study contributes to the ongoing debate over the causes of housing bubbles. The argument that excessively low interest rates were responsible for the run up in house prices over the last decade has received considerable attention in the literature. However, few papers have attempted to quantify the extent of house price overvaluation in countries that have seen housing booms and busts, in addition to quantifying the looseness of monetary policy. For a sample of 10 OECD countries, we es...

MONETARY POLICY BEFORE AND AFTER THE FINANCIAL CRISIS. EVIDENCE FROM INFLATION TARGETING COUNTRIES IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE

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Ioana Plescau

2017-07-01

Full Text Available The aim of our study is to review the monetary framework and instruments adopted by the inflation-targeting countries in Central and Eastern Europe, from 2005-ownwards. We employ a qualitative approach and develop a comparative analysis of the changes that occurred in the conduct of monetary policy after the 2008 financial crisis. The results highlight that the central banks in our sample have adjusted their policy in order to counteract the effects of the financial crisis and adopt different instruments to fulfill this aim. The contribution of our study is twofold. First, we offer a review of the literature regarding the adjustments in the monetary policy after the crisis and their effectiveness. Second, we make a comparative analysis between countries with respect to the path of monetary policy from conventional to unconventional and assess the (potential way back.

Restoring international competitiveness in Croatia: The role of fiscal and monetary policy

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Ćorić Tomislav

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Croatia has joined the European Union as a country with several substantial structural problems, of which the most important is weak competitiveness. Although competitiveness can be viewed from the ‘institutional’ perspective, which includes World Development Indicators (WDI and Doing Business reports, in this paper the authors focus on the more standard view of competitiveness based on unit labour costs (ULC and real effective exchange rate (REER. As a small, open and highly dollarized/euroised economy that has to coordinate its economic policy with the EU policy framework, Croatia has limited space for increasing international competitiveness using monetary policy measures aimed at (nominal devaluation of the national currency. Therefore economic policy stakeholders should focus on decreasing unit labour costs and real effective exchange rate mainly through the process of internal devaluation, which is based on adequate fiscal policy measures. In this paper the authors analyse the role of monetary and fiscal policy in the deteriorating real effective exchange rate and unit labour costs since 2000, and their current capabilities and restrictions in restoring international competitiveness. The Structural VAR model (SVAR is used to estimate the effects of foreign (banking capital, credit growth, and current public expenditure on REER and ULC. The preliminary hypothesis of the paper is that monetary policy should continue to support bank lending activities and the role of fiscal policy is to achieve an internal devaluation, which will increase the competitiveness of the Croatian economy. Restoring international competitiveness is necessary due to its impact on net exports and consequently the economic recovery of the national economy, which has faced recession conditions for five years in a row. Also, restoring competitiveness is one of the most important preconditions for the success of a small country joining the single European market.

A Critical Review on Interest Rate as a Tool of Monetary Policy

OpenAIRE

diyah putriani; pras towo

2016-01-01

Objectives: This research is aimed to critically review the relationship between interest rate and economic downturnMethods: Meta-analysis.Results: The existing monetary policy will always create higher inflation rate overtime triggering economic crisis in the long run. This is not merely about how the monetary authority strictly manages the supply and demand for money in the economy.Conclusion:This paper concludes that interest rate give negative contribution to the economic growth.

A Critical Review on Interest Rate as a Tool of Monetary Policy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

diyah putriani

2016-04-01

Full Text Available Objectives: This research is aimed to critically review the relationship between interest rate and economic downturnMethods: Meta-analysis.Results: The existing monetary policy will always create higher inflation rate overtime triggering economic crisis in the long run. This is not merely about how the monetary authority strictly manages the supply and demand for money in the economy.Conclusion:This paper concludes that interest rate give negative contribution to the economic growth.

Output gap uncertainty and real-time monetary policy

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Francesco Grigoli

2015-12-01

Full Text Available Output gap estimates are subject to a wide range of uncertainty owing principally to the difficulty in distinguishing between cycle and trend in real time. We show that country desks tend to overestimate economic slack, especially during recessions, and that uncertainty in initial output gap estimates persists several years. Only a small share of output gap revisions is predictable based on output dynamics, data quality, and policy frameworks. We also show that for a group of Latin American inflation targeters the prescriptions from monetary policy rules are subject to large changes due to revised output gap estimates. These explain a sizable proportion of the deviation of inflation from target, suggesting this information is not accounted for in real-time policy decisions.

US fiscal regimes and optimal monetary policy

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Mavromatis, K.

2014-01-01

Fiscal policy in the US has been documented to have been the leading authority in the ‘60s and the ‘70s (active fiscal policy), while committing to make the necessary fiscal adjustments following Volcker’s appointment (passive fiscal policy). Moreover, while passive, US fiscal policy has at times

Welfare Implications of Alternative Monetary Policy Rules: A New Keynesian DSGE Model for Turkey

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Yağcıbaşı Özge Filiz

2017-12-01

Full Text Available In recent years, there has been extensive research on the conduct of monetary policy in small open economies that are subject to inflation and output fluctuations. Policymakers should decide whether to implement strict inflation targeting or to respond to the changes in output fluctuations while conducting monetary policy rule. This study aims to examine the response of alternative monetary policy rules to Turkish economy by means of a DSGE model that is subject to demand and technology shocks. The New Keynesian model we used is borrowed from Gali (2015 and calibrated for the Turkish economy. Welfare effects of alternative Taylor rules are evaluated under different specifications of central bank loss function. One of the main findings of this paper is that in the case of a technology shock, strict inflation targeting rules provide the minimum welfare loss under all loss function configurations. On the contrary, the losses are weakened if the monetary authority responds to output fluctuations in the presence of a demand shock. Finally, there exists a trade-off between the volatility of output and inflation in case of a technology shock, while the volatility of both variables moves in the same direction in response to a demand shock.

Two Different Views on Monetary Policy Impact: The New Consensus and Post-Keynesian Economics

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Marius-Corneliu Marinas

2007-09-01

Full Text Available The objective of this study is to make a synthesis of the differences between two new macroeconomic views. A New Consensus has arisen among neoclassical and New-Keynesian economists, such as Romer, Taylor and Walsh. This new view seeks to redefine the application of monetary policy by re-specifying the most appropriate monetary rule, which is used for inflation targeting. The framework of the monetary policy impact requires the usage of a expectations augmented Phillips curve, characterized through the lack of trade-off inflation-unemployment in the long-run. Post-keynesian macroeconomic critical, whose promoters are Arestis, Lavoie and Satterfield, argues that for most of the production levels obtained output change has no effect on inflation. This is a re-formulation of the Keynesian aggregate supply curve, which is entirely horizontal.

The impact of monetary policy on financing of Czech firms

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Aliyev, Ruslan; Hájková, D.; Kubicová, I.

2015-01-01

Roč. 65, č. 6 (2015), s. 455-476 ISSN 0015-1920 Institutional support: PRVOUK-P23 Keywords : monetary policy transmission * broad credit view * external finance Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 0.449, year: 2015 http://journal.fsv.cuni.cz/mag/article/show/id/1343

The Monetary Policy in the System of State Regulation of the Indian Economy

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Natalia V. Galistcheva

2015-01-01

Full Text Available The main task of this research is the analysis of India's monetary policy and its place in the system of state regulation of the economy. The article highlights the main directions of the Indian monetary policy in 1990-2000s aiming to raise competitiveness of the Indian goods on the foreign markets as well as stimulating the inflow of foreign capital in necessary volumes into the national economy. The author focuses on the main instruments of the modern Indian monetary policy, pursued in line with providing the undervalued rupee, which include the manipulating of the bank rate and currency interventions, directed mainly at sterilization of excessive inflow of foreign currency to the country. The article also underlines all the advantages and costs of the monetary policy. One of its main advantages is stimulation of national production's exports and among costs there are difficulties of importing machines and equipment into the country, increase of inflation rate as a result of massive inflow of export revenue, difficulties at external debt's service. The author notes the gradual nature of introduction of current account rupee convertibility and reasons for delay in achieving its full convertibility. Among them there are rather high level of fiscal deficit of the consolidated budget, essential average annual level of inflation, problems of non-performed assets in the economy, high liquidity ratio for commercial banks. The article also presents statistical data on the present state of the Indian foreign exchange reserves as well as dynamics in nominal and real effective exchange rate of rupee in 2005/06 - 2013/14 fiscal year.

Currency Mismatch, Balance-sheet effect and Monetary Policy

OpenAIRE

Nakamura, Chikafumi

2011-01-01

This paper analyzes the impact of the currency mismatch between assets and liabilities on monetary policy. The currency mismatch causes macroeconomic instability through balance-sheet effects. To analyze the problem, we apply a small open economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with international credit-market imperfections. As a result, despitethe currency mismatch and high trade openness, a targeting rule to address the terms of trade is not efficient. This result depends on...

Consumers' inflation expectations and monetary policy in Europe

OpenAIRE

Berk, J.M.

2000-01-01

This paper analyses the effects of monetary policy decisions on inflation expectations of European consumers. Using a novel approach that does not assume unbiasedness of expectations, which makes use of survey data on expected future as well as perceived past price developments and allows for non-normal peakedness and asymmetry, we convert qualitative survey responses of consumers in various European countries into quantitative time series of inflation expectations. After checking the rationa...

Interactions between Monetary and Fiscal Policy via Open Market Operations

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Schabert, A.

2004-01-01

We examine interactions of monetary and fiscal policy in a sticky price model where public debt is non-neutral, as it provides transaction services. This property is brought about by a legal restriction on open market operations by which only government bonds are eligible. Debt creation eases access

Monetary and fiscal policy under bounded rationality and heterogeneous expectations

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Lustenhouwer, J.E.

2017-01-01

The goal of this thesis is to use plausible and intuitive models of bounded rationality to give new insights in monetary and fiscal policy. Particular focus is put on the zero lower bound on the nominal interest rate, forward guidance, and fiscal consolidations. The thesis considers different forms

A structural dynamic factor model for the effects of monetary policy estimated by the EM algorithm

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bork, Lasse

This paper applies the maximum likelihood based EM algorithm to a large-dimensional factor analysis of US monetary policy. Specifically, economy-wide effects of shocks to the US federal funds rate are estimated in a structural dynamic factor model in which 100+ US macroeconomic and financial time...... series are driven by the joint dynamics of the federal funds rate and a few correlated dynamic factors. This paper contains a number of methodological contributions to the existing literature on data-rich monetary policy analysis. Firstly, the identification scheme allows for correlated factor dynamics...... as opposed to the orthogonal factors resulting from the popular principal component approach to structural factor models. Correlated factors are economically more sensible and important for a richer monetary policy transmission mechanism. Secondly, I consider both static factor loadings as well as dynamic...

Further Monetary Easing Policies under the Non-negativity Constraints of Nominal Interest Rates: Summary of the Discussion Based on Japan's Experience

OpenAIRE

Oda, Nobuyuki; Okina, Kunio

2001-01-01

This paper examines issues surrounding monetary policy under zero interest rates based on one and a half year fs experience in Japan. After reviewing the market development in Japan, it summarizes the transmission mechanism of monetary policy under zero nominal interest rates, and considers what would be the likely policy options if a central bank were to conduct further monetary easing. Specifically, a more detailed policy announcement is regarded as feasible, less costly, and the less risky...

Balance of Payments of East Asian Countries: Impact of the Coordinated Monetary Policy

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Yana Valeryevna Dyomina

2014-03-01

Full Text Available The paper examines the equilibrium state of balance of payments of East Asian countries by means of the monetary policy instruments. For this purpose the author determines the value of the equilibrium exchange rate of AMU (Asian Monetary Unit against the U.S. dollar. The equilibrium exchange rate is the one that smoothes values of net merchandise exports and net capital exports. The author employs panel data regression analysis (using statistics of trade and capital (foreign direct investment flows between East Asian countries and the United States to obtain quantitative estimation of trade and investment effects of the coordinated monetary policy. The paper shows that transition of East Asian region (China, Japan, Republic of Korea, Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam, the Philippines and Thailand to the single currency (AMU will have a negative effect on the balance of payments of the studied countries: this will increase the mismatch between commodity and capital flows

Monetary Policy Objectives During the Crisis: An Overview of Selected Southeast European Countries

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Krstevska Aneta

2015-01-01

Full Text Available The recent global crisis brought many challenges to the central bankers worldwide, including the issue of monetary policy objectives. In this view, besides price stability maintenance, a special attention by central bankers during the crisis was given to the output stabilization. This paper explores this issue on the case of a group of countries from Southeast Europe (SEE. For this purpose, rather simple analysis of the policy rate and output gap as well as output gap variability by countries have been provided, aimed at giving some initial insights of the monetary policy and output stabilization during the crisis. Our findings pointed that the central banks in the analysed SEE countries paid attention to the output stabilization, specifically during the crisis period and that was presumably enabled by controllable inflation developments.

Committee Structure and its Implications for Monetary Policy Decision-making

NARCIS (Netherlands)

J.M. Berk (Jan Marc); B.K. Bierut

2003-01-01

textabstractWe investigate the implications for the setting of interest rates when monetary policy decisions are taken by a committee, in which a subset of members may meet prior to the voting in the committee and therefore has the possibility to reach consensus ex ante to vote unanimously ex post.

Committee structure and its implications for monetary policy decision-making

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bierut, B.K.; Berk, J.M.

2003-01-01

We investigate the implications for the setting of interest rates when monetary policy decisions are taken by a committee, in which a subset of membersmay meet prior to the voting in the committee and therefore has the possibility to reach consensus ex ante to vote unanimously ex post. We allow

The asymmetric effects of oil price and monetary policy shocks. A nonlinear VAR approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rahman, Sajjadur; Serletis, Apostolos

2010-01-01

In this paper we investigate the asymmetric effects of oil price shocks and monetary policy on macroeconomic activity, using monthly data for the United States, over the period from 1983:1 to 2008:12. In doing so, we use a logistic smooth transition vector autoregression (VAR), as detailed in Terasvirta and Anderson (1992) and Weise (1999), and make a distinction between two oil price volatility regimes (high and low), using the realized oil price volatility as a switching variable. We isolate the effects of oil price and monetary policy shocks and their asymmetry on output growth and, following Koop et al. (1996) and Weise (1999), we employ simulation methods to calculate Generalized Impulse Response Functions (GIRFs) to trace the effects of independent shocks on the conditional means of the variables. Our results suggest that in addition to the price of oil, oil price volatility has an impact on macroeconomic activity and that monetary policy is not only reinforcing the effects of oil price shocks on output, it is also contributing to the asymmetric response of output to oil price shocks. (author)

The asymmetric effects of oil price and monetary policy shocks. A nonlinear VAR approach

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rahman, Sajjadur [Department of Economics, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon (Canada); Serletis, Apostolos [Department of Economics, University of Calgary, Calgary (Canada)

2010-11-15

In this paper we investigate the asymmetric effects of oil price shocks and monetary policy on macroeconomic activity, using monthly data for the United States, over the period from 1983:1 to 2008:12. In doing so, we use a logistic smooth transition vector autoregression (VAR), as detailed in Terasvirta and Anderson (1992) and Weise (1999), and make a distinction between two oil price volatility regimes (high and low), using the realized oil price volatility as a switching variable. We isolate the effects of oil price and monetary policy shocks and their asymmetry on output growth and, following Koop et al. (1996) and Weise (1999), we employ simulation methods to calculate Generalized Impulse Response Functions (GIRFs) to trace the effects of independent shocks on the conditional means of the variables. Our results suggest that in addition to the price of oil, oil price volatility has an impact on macroeconomic activity and that monetary policy is not only reinforcing the effects of oil price shocks on output, it is also contributing to the asymmetric response of output to oil price shocks. (author)

Monetary or environmental appeals for saving electricity? –Potentials for spillover on low carbon policy acceptability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Steinhorst, Julia; Matthies, Ellen

2016-01-01

The acceptability of low carbon policies is an important precondition for energy system transitions, such as the German Energiewende. This long-term experimental study examines the potential for behavioural spillover on the acceptability of low carbon policies, caused by a framed intervention to promote electricity saving behaviour. Clients of a German energy provider were randomly assigned to continuously receive electricity saving tips with either monetary framing (saving potential in €) or environmental framing (saving potential in CO_2). The control group did not receive any information. In two follow-up surveys, four (N=333) and nine months (N=258) later, participants rated the acceptability of several low carbon policies. A pre-survey assessed the personal ecological norm for saving electricity. Participants with strong personal ecological norms reported generally higher policy acceptability. After environmental framing they also indicated higher acceptability compared to the monetary framing or control group. These results indicate that information campaigns should be designed carefully in order to promote positive spillover effects. Environmental framing of private-sphere behaviour can increase the disposition for further pro-environmental behaviour in the public sphere, e.g. policy acceptability. When appealing to monetary benefits in pro-environmental behaviour, there is a risk of inhibiting positive spillover effects. - Highlights: •Policy acceptability may be influenced by type of framing and individual factors. •We examined long-term spillover effects in association with type of framing. •Framing (environmental vs. monetary) interacts with personal ecological norms. •For strong personal ecological norms, environmental framing increases acceptability. •Also, strong personal ecological norms increase low carbon policy acceptability.

Monetary policy change of the Central bank of Poland

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kraś Ireneusz

2015-07-01

Full Text Available The National Bank of Poland is an institution which, in conjunction with the government is responsible for the implementation of country’s economic policy reinforces its democratic character. Provisions of its operation are governed by the Constitution of The Republic of Poland and by the Act on the National Bank of Poland. To this end, the objective of the present research is to analyse the proposed amendments in the Act on the NBP. The latter concerns the amendment procedures, term of office and the rotations and numbers of Monetary Policy Council. The remaining part of the analyses is dedicated to the issue of dismissal of a MPC’s member in conjunction with the prohibition of occupying other positions, the adoption of the NBP’s financial statements and the separation of instruments of monetary policy’s instruments for stability of domestic financial system. Introduced changes in the proposed draft reduce the independence of the NBP while making it more subject to the Cabinet. Following the result of further consultations on the draft of Act on the NBP, provisions which reduce the independence of the NBP shall be partially removed.

The Simple Analytics of Monetary Policy: A Post-Crisis Approach

Science.gov (United States)

Friedman, Benjamin M.

2013-01-01

The standard workhorse models of monetary policy now commonly in use, both for teaching macro-economics to students and for supporting policymaking within many central banks, are incapable of incorporating the most widely accepted accounts of how the 2007-9 financial crisis occurred and are incapable too of analyzing the actions that monetary…

THEORIES OF MONETARY POLICY – FROM THE MERCANTILIST PRAGMATISM TO THE MODERN MONETARY THEORIES

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Zina CIORAN

2014-06-01

Full Text Available The purpose of this article is to perform an incursion into the monetary theories, from the mercantilists to the modern theories. The monetary area is an important component of the economic system which has always been and still is tormented by anxiety and uncertainty. The currency can be considered a barometer that promptly and precisely registers a country’s economic oscillations and the fundamental problems that torment the human society nowadays is mainly expressed in monetary terms. Being one of the major tools the state uses to balance the economy, the monetary politics has permanently generated fervent controversies and discussions. Scientific research of the monetary phenomenon, facing the complexity of the currency problems with a diversity of currency types and with the complex currency role within the company, as well as the explosive evolution of the financial institutions, structures and monetary and financial products has always kept the monetary theory in the beginning of a new research program. The monetary theory center, around which the economists‘ thinking is founded, is formed of: emphasizing the money role in the economy, the money measurement, the money offer and request with their influence factors, the monetary balance theory, the monetary impulse transition modality as well as the monetary behavior on the part of the economic agents. It was established that each economical thinking movement marked the social, economical and political life for a certain amount of time, each school has criticized or supported their predecessors’ ideas contributing to the enrichment of the monetary theory and the economic development, implicitly.

Monetary and Fiscal Policy Interaction and the Relationship between the Central Bank and the Government. (The Case of Republic of Moldova

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Corina Chironachi

2015-08-01

Full Text Available In this paper the author is analyzing the impact of fiscal and monetary policies on the dynamics of the exchange rate, inflation and other macroeconomic variables. The author investigates the forms of strategic interaction between the Government and the Central Bank in designing and implementing these policies. As a result, the author concludes the necessity of institutions cooperation in the development and implementation of monetary and fiscal policy measures, but also concluded that the responsible institutions must remain independent in achieving an efficient monetary and fiscal policy of the Republic of Moldova.

Liquidity regulation and the implementation of monetary policy

OpenAIRE

Morten L. Bech; Todd Keister

2013-01-01

In addition to revamping existing rules for bank capital, Basel III introduces a new global framework for liquidity regulation. One part of this framework is the liquidity coverage ratio (LCR), which requires banks to hold sufficient high-quality liquid assets to survive a 30-day period of market stress. As monetary policy typically involves targeting the interest rate on loans of one of these assets — central bank reserves — it is important to understand how this regulation may impact the ef...

Fiscal Policy and the Implementation of the Walsh Contract for Central Bankers

OpenAIRE

Haizhou Huang; A. Jorge Padilla

2002-01-01

We develop a simple macroeconomic model where the time inconsistency of optimal monetary policy is due to tax distortions. If fiscal policy is exogenously fixed at its optimal level, a Walsh contract (Walsh, 1995) offered to an independent central bank implements the optimal monetary policy. When fiscal policy is determined endogenously, however, this contract is subject to strategic manipulation by the government, which results in a suboptimal policy mix. Implementing the optimal policy mix ...

Vector Autoregressions with Parsimoniously Time Varying Parameters and an Application to Monetary Policy

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Callot, Laurent; Kristensen, Johannes Tang

the monetary policy response to inflation and business cycle fluctuations in the US by estimating a parsimoniously time varying parameter Taylor rule.We document substantial changes in the policy response of the Fed in the 1970s and 1980s, and since 2007, but also document the stability of this response...

Monetary policy implementation and money demand instability during the financial crisis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Svatopluk Kapounek

2011-01-01

Full Text Available The author focuses on the money endogeneity in the context of common monetary policy implementation in the euro area. The empirical analysis shows money demand function instability during the financial crisis. The instability is described by decrease in credit money creation and money velocity changes. The cointegration tests identifed long-run positive relationship between monetary aggregates and economic activity. Concurrently, the economic activity is treated to be weakly exogenous in the model.The conclusions are discussed with Postkeynesians’ assumption, that central banks cannot fix the stock of money in a country. The causality is directed from economic activity to money demand.

Firm Size and Monetary Policy Transmission: A Theoretical Model on the Role of Capital Investment Expenditures

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Raabe, K.; Arnold, I.; Kool, C.J.M.

This paper presents a dynamic investment model that explains differences in the sensitivity of small- and large-sized firms to changes in the money market interest rate. In contrast to existing studies on the firm size effects of monetary policy, the importance of firms as monetary transmission

The impact of monetary policy and exchange rate regime on real GDP and prices in the Republic of Macedonia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zeqiri Izet

2010-09-01

Full Text Available This paper investigates the relative costs and benefits associated with introducing a more active monetary and a different exchange rate regime in the Republic of Macedonia. In this finding, the econometrics result show that introducing a more active monetary policy and a different strategy of the exchange rate targeting in order to promote rapid economic growth could easy disturb macroeconomic stability (after having achieved it at a substantial cost without any significant economic benefits. Therefore, introducing a more active monetary policy and a different strategy of the exchange rate regime is likely to incur more costs than benefits, since changes of the monetary policy and exchange rate regime type do not show a persistent effect on real GDP, while changes of money stock and exchange rate regime do show a strong and persistent effect on prices level.

Is monetary policy really neutral in the long-run? Evidence for some emerging and developed economies

OpenAIRE

Reginaldo Pinto Nogueira

2009-01-01

The traditional economic theory suggests that changes in the money supply or in the interest rates can influence the business cycle, but not the long-run potential output. In other words, monetary policy is neutral over the long-run. In this paper we use some new developments in econometrics to test for the existence of a long-run relationship between the monetary policy instrument used by most Central Banks - short-term interest rates - and real output. Using annual data for 14 emerging and ...

The adaptation of monetary policy to the constraints of the global financial crisis by central banks of ASEAN-5 countries

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Sorina BOTIŞ

2015-12-01

Full Text Available Global financial crisis represented an important test for central banks, generating multiple challenges that gave rise to both expanding their monetary policy tools and redefining its role in the financial system. The present work aims to identify the characteristics of the monetary policy by the central banks of the five countries belonging to ASEAN-5 Group(Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore and Thailand, during and after the outbreak of the international financial crisis. For this purpose we carried out a comparative analysis between the five central bank s belonging to the Group, both in terms of the challenges of the monetary policy and the type of measures taken in response to the first. The analysis shows that central banks have different levels of responsibilities, corresponding to the internal economic and financial realities, and also different ways of adaptation and adjustment of their monetary policy.

An endogenous Taylor condition in an endogenous growth monetary policy model

OpenAIRE

Le, Mai Vo; Gillman, Max; Minford, Patrick

2007-01-01

The paper derives a Taylor condition as part of the agent's equilibrium behavior in an endogenous growth monetary economy. It shows the assumptions necessary to make it almost identical to the original Taylor rule, and that it can interchangably take a money supply growth rate form. From the money supply form, simple policy experiments are conducted. A full central bank policy model is derived that includes the Taylor condition along with equations comparable to the standard aggregate-demand/...

RISKS AND CONSTRAINTS FOR THE MONETARY STABILITY

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Camelia MILEA

2013-09-01

Full Text Available Starting from the definition according to which monetary stability requires an appropriate level of liquidity in an economy with dynamic objectives, of growth and job creation, non-inflationary in terms of price stability, based on the analysis of the effects of some relevant economic phenomena and on the economic literature, in this article, the author has highlighted some of the risks to monetary stability. One of the major risks is represented by the loss of its instruments, i.e. the instruments for liquidity management, through monetary and exchange rate policies. Another important risk is represented by the capital fluctuation due to various shocks: exchange rate, political, financial and capital account liberalization. Also, as a result of the analysis of relevant studies and of the effects of the European integration in terms of monetary stability, the author has shown the elements on which depends monetary stability. Among these, there are: the existence of an institutional framework with a clear goal and a proper degree of responsibility, strong operational independence of monetary policy, monetary policy implementation with a view to ensuring an appropriate balance between discipline and discretion, the level of the interest rate of monetary policy, the efficiency of the transmission mechanism of monetary policy, the existence of a viable and stable financial system, the existence of enough instruments at hand for the central bank, the structure and soundness of the financial and banking system. The paper is a capitalization of the research project “Global Risks for the Financial and Monetary Stability. Implications for Romania and European Union” elaborated in 2013, at “Victor Slăvescu” Centre for Financial and Monetary Research.

Inflation, exchange rate and efficacy of monetary policy in Nigeria: The empirical evidence

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BigBen Chukwuma Ogbonna

2016-01-01

1986 – 2008. Estimates from a vector auto regression model (VAR of key macroeconomic variables demonstrate the weak link between money supply and inflation in the both time horizons, which suggests that the hypothesis that money supply is not an effective policy instrument for management of inflationary developments cannot be rejected for Nigeria. The results further suggest that in both time horizons, exchange rate has been identified as a singular most promising macroeconomic fundamental for both internal and external sectors adjustments. However, the deregulation of the domestic economy as occasioned by SAP has significantly diluted the efficacy of exchange rate as a monetary policy instrument for the management of Nigeria’s aggregate money stock and trade balance developments. These notwithstanding, the Central Bank of Nigeria can continue to play a stabilizing role in the economy through the continuation of prudent monetary policies and frequent interventions in exchange rate management to smooth out shocks.

Strategic interaction between fiscal and monetary policies in an export-oriented economy

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Merzlyakov Sergey

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Solving the problem of stabilizing the economy is directly tied to the necessity of keeping the main macroeconomic variables stable. However, macroeconomic stability is not in the general case a purely fiscal or a purely monetary problem. How the central bank and the government interact is of principle importance. We investigate the impact of macroeconomic policies on the dynamics of the exchange rate, inflation, output and stabilization fund and consider different forms of strategic interaction between the government and the central bank. In this paper we build a stylized model of an export-oriented economy. We use numerical examples for our analysis and practical conclusions. The effective interaction of fiscal and monetary policies is possible under a cooperative Stackelberg game interaction with the government as leader. It is shown that the independence of the central bank does not play a crucial role.

Monetary policy and banking supervision: still at arm's length? A comparative analysis

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Donato Masciandaro

2012-12-01

Full Text Available By the early 2000s an increasing number of countries had adopted a well-defined central bank framework, characterized by two intertwined features: stronger specialization for the banking authority in achieving monetary policy goals, and a lessening of its traditional responsibilities for the safeguard of financial stability within its institutional perimeter. The fundamental effect was that Central Bank Involvement in Supervision (CBIS generally decreased. But then, after the Financial Crisis erupted in 2008, reforms have been undertaken and projects are being discussed to reconsider the role of the central bank in the field of supervisory tasks. The main research question is then: how is CBIS moving? This article offers two contributions. Firstly, the economics of the relationship between central banking, monetary policy and banking supervision is reviewed. Secondly, the current situation of CBIS in 88 countries around the world is analyzed.

The Impact of United States Monetary Policy in the Crude Oil futures market

Science.gov (United States)

Padilla-Padilla, Fernando M.

This research examines the empirical impact the United States monetary policy, through the federal fund interest rate, has on the volatility in the crude oil price in the futures market. Prior research has shown how macroeconomic events and variables have impacted different financial markets within short and long--term movements. After testing and decomposing the variables, the two stationary time series were analyzed using a Vector Autoregressive Model (VAR). The empirical evidence shows, with statistical significance, a direct relationship when explaining crude oil prices as function of fed fund rates (t-1) and an indirect relationship when explained as a function of fed fund rates (t-2). These results partially address the literature review lacunas within the topic of the existing implication monetary policy has within the crude oil futures market.

Navigating the Great Recession: what role for monetary policy?

OpenAIRE

Bank for International Settlements

2013-01-01

The 12th BIS Annual Conference took place in Lucerne, Switzerland on 20-21 June 2013. The event brought together a distinguished group of central bank governors, leading academics and former public officials to exchange views on the conference theme of "Navigating the Great Recession: what role for monetary policy?". This volume contains the opening address by Stephen Cecchetti (former Economic Adviser, BIS), a keynote address by Finn Kydland (University of California, Santa Barbara) and the ...

MODELING MONETARY POLICY RULES IN THE MENACOUNTRIES: ISSUES AND EVIDENCE

OpenAIRE

Mohamad Husam Helmi

2011-01-01

This paper estimates the monetary policy reaction function for two sets of MENAcountries: The inflation target countries, (Turkeyand Israel) and the exchange ratetarget countries, (Jordan and Morocco). We motivateour empirical analysis byanalyzing a simple Taylor rule. This model looks atthe effects of inflation andoutput on setting the interest rate by the centralbank. Furthermore, we extendedour model by adding the exchange rate and the foreign interest rate ...

Nonverbal contention and contempt in U.K. parliamentary oversight hearings on fiscal and monetary policy.

Science.gov (United States)

Schonhardt-Bailey, Cheryl

2017-01-01

In parliamentary committee oversight hearings on fiscal policy, monetary policy, and financial stability, where verbal deliberation is the focus, nonverbal communication may be crucial in the acceptance or rejection of arguments proffered by policymakers. Systematic qualitative coding of these hearings in the 2010-15 U.K. Parliament finds the following: (1) facial expressions, particularly in the form of anger and contempt, are more prevalent in fiscal policy hearings, where backbench parliamentarians hold frontbench parliamentarians to account, than in monetary policy or financial stability hearings, where the witnesses being held to account are unelected policy experts; (2) comparing committees across chambers, hearings in the House of Lords committee yield more reassuring facial expressions relative to hearings in the House of Commons committee, suggesting a more relaxed and less adversarial context in the former; and (3) central bank witnesses appearing before both the Lords and Commons committees tend toward expressions of appeasement, suggesting a willingness to defer to Parliament.

Is the U.S. Fed voting record informative about future monetary policy?

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Horváth, R.; Šmídková, K.; Zápal, Jan

2012-01-01

Roč. 62, č. 6 (2012), s. 478-484 ISSN 0015-1920 Institutional support: PRVOUK-P23 Keywords : monetary policy * voting record * transparency Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 0.340, year: 2012 http://journal.fsv.cuni.cz/storage/1259_478-484_---horvath.pdf

Risk premium shocks, monetary policy and exchange rate pass-through in the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland

OpenAIRE

Vonnák, Balázs

2010-01-01

This paper investigates the role of monetary policy in a small open economy, where exchange rate shocks are important. VAR models are estimated for the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland. Contemporaneous and sign restrictions are imposed in order to identify the effect of monetary policy and risk premium shocks. Estimates from the same model for Canada, Sweden and the UK are used as benchmark for developed economies with low inflation. The results suggest that the typical size a of risk premi...

Alternative Monetary Policy Rules in a Small Open Economy with Financial Frictions: The Case of Korea

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Yongseung Jung

2011-09-01

Full Text Available This paper first shows an empirical result of VAR that Korean economy has experienced a severe economic contraction to an exogenous country spread shock. To analyze the effect of alternative monetary policy on the economy, the paper sets up a multi-sector small open economy new Keynesian (NK hereafter model with financial frictions due to asymmetric information between firms and financial intermediaries along the line of Bernanke et al. (1999. It shows that the small economy with financial frictions is more vulnerable to the exogenous shocks such as the foreign exchange rate shock under the fixed exchange rate regime than under the flexible exchange regime. It also shows that the interest rate rule that responds to financial market conditions is better than any other interest rate rules only if it does not react to the exchange rate fluctuations. Moreover, an interest rate rule that responds to the exchange rate fluctuations, i.e. the monetary policy under the managed floating exchange rate regime is inferior to the monetary policy rules that do not respond to the exchange rate fluctuations. Finally, it shows that the monetary authority needs to stabilize a narrow price index such as domestic price index rather than a general price index such as consumer price index under the financial friction circumstances.

The interplay between money market development and changes in monetary policy operations in small European countries, 1980 - 2000

OpenAIRE

Forssbæck, Jens; Oxelheim, Lars

2007-01-01

We study the interplay between money market development and changes in monetary policy operating procedures in 11 European countries from c. 1980 up to the launch of EMU. Aspects of money market development such as the size and structure of different market segments, and institutional and regulatory changes, are addressed. We recount and empirically examine the extent of reorientation of monetary policy instruments away from quantitative direct control instruments toward indirect market-based...

Monetary compensations in climate policy through the lens of a general equilibrium assessment: The case of oil-exporting countries

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Waisman, Henri; Rozenberg, Julie; Hourcade, Jean Charles

2013-01-01

This paper investigates the compensations that major oil producers have claimed for since the Kyoto Protocol in order to alleviate the adverse impacts of climate policy on their economies. The amount of these adverse impacts is assessed through a general equilibrium model which endogenizes both the reduction of oil exportation revenues under international climate policy and the macroeconomic effect of carbon pricing on Middle-East's economy. We show that compensating the drop of exportation revenues does not offset GDP and welfare losses because of the time profile of the general equilibrium effects. When considering instead compensation based on GDP losses, the effectiveness of monetary transfers proves to be drastically limited by general equilibrium effects in opened economies. The main channels of this efficiency gap are investigated and its magnitude proves to be conditional upon strategic and policy choices of the Middle-East. This leads us to suggest that other means than direct monetary compensating transfers should be discussed to engage the Middle-East in climate policies. - Highlights: • We endogenize the interplay between climate policy, oil markets and the macroeconomy. • We quantify the transfers to compensate climate policy losses in oil-exporting countries. • We assess the general equilibrium effect of monetary transfers in opened economies. • The macroeconomic efficiency of transfers is altered by general equilibrium effects. • Monetary compensation schemes are not efficient for oil exporters in climate policy

Integration of Government Bond Market in the Euro Area and Monetary Policy

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Lukić Velimir

2016-01-01

Full Text Available This paper combines analysis of evolution in euro area government bond market integration and interference of European Central Bank with functioning of respective market recently. Since the introduction of euro, government bond yields converged in the euro area, bonds of different countries have become close substitutes in the perception of investors, and overall integration of the market was rather high. At the end of 2008, dramatic shift occurred and ever since disintegrative forces were set in motion. The paper presents the following measures of integration of the government bond markets: yield spreads, dispersion in yield spreads and beta coefficient. All three measures suggest unprecedented market disintegration as of 2010. The paper highlighted relevance of sovereign bond market for the smooth functioning of the monetary policy transmission mechanism in a monetary union context. Three ECB’s programmes aimed at sovereign debt crisis resolution were analysed in details. They proved successful in lowering peripheral countries’ yields and spreads, and calming the markets. If one takes central bank function of the lender of last resort for banks, then these programmes may be viewed as the “buyer of last resort” device for government bonds. Although warranted by exceptional circumstances and need for swift response, a due caution should be paid to these programmes since they pose certain challenges for conduct of monetary policy and might even have unintended consequences.

What Do a Million Observations on Banks Say about the Transmission of Monetary Policy?

OpenAIRE

Jeremy C. Stein; Anil K. Kashyap

2000-01-01

We study the monetary-transmission mechanism with a data set that includes quarterly observations of every insured U.S. commercial bank from 1976 to 1993. We find that the impact of monetary policy on lending is stronger for banks with less liquid balance sheets--i.e., banks with lower ratios of securities to assets. Moreover, this pattern is largely attributable to the smaller banks, those in the bottom 95 percent of the size distribution. Our results support the existence of a "bank lending...

Correlation and regression analysis of tools influencing on targets of monetary policy of Central Bank of the Russian Federation

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Gordyachkova O. V.

2016-07-01

Full Text Available the article presents the correlation and regression analysis of the influence of the Central Bank tools of Russian monetary policy on its aims. Such analysis is the basic method of estimating monetary policy efficiency by means of quantity-related parameters. The results outlined by the authors prove the lack of efficiency of influencing tools: inflation, money supply and the exchange rate.

Monetary Policy, Risk-Taking, and Pricing : Evidence from a Quasi-Natural Experiment

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Ioannidou, V.; Ongena, S.; Peydro, J.L.

2009-01-01

We analyse the impact of monetary policy on bank risk-taking and pricing. Bolivia provides us with an excellent experimental setting to identify this impact. Its small economy is not synchronized with the US economy but its banking system is almost fully dollarized. Consequently the US federal funds

The asymmetry of U.S. monetary policy: Evidence from a threshold Taylor rule with time-varying threshold values

Science.gov (United States)

Zhu, Yanli; Chen, Haiqiang

2017-05-01

In this paper, we revisit the issue whether U.S. monetary policy is asymmetric by estimating a forward-looking threshold Taylor rule with quarterly data from 1955 to 2015. In order to capture the potential heterogeneity for regime shift mechanism under different economic conditions, we modify the threshold model by assuming the threshold value as a latent variable following an autoregressive (AR) dynamic process. We use the unemployment rate as the threshold variable and separate the sample into two periods: expansion periods and recession periods. Our findings support that the U.S. monetary policy operations are asymmetric in these two regimes. More precisely, the monetary authority tends to implement an active Taylor rule with a weaker response to the inflation gap (the deviation of inflation from its target) and a stronger response to the output gap (the deviation of output from its potential level) in recession periods. The threshold value, interpreted as the targeted unemployment rate of monetary authorities, exhibits significant time-varying properties, confirming the conjecture that policy makers may adjust their reference point for the unemployment rate accordingly to reflect their attitude on the health of general economy.

Monetary policy as a source of risk in international business financings and investments

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Paun Cristian

2017-07-01

Full Text Available This paper aims at explaining the volatility of two main macroeconomic variables (interest rate and exchange rate that impact the cost of international capital and, consequently, the international financing decision. Firstly, the main economic theories are called to illustrate the relevant determinants of these variables from the perspective of demand and supply of capital sides. The state intervention through monetary policy is introduced to emphasize the alteration of these prices (the price of capital, the price of foreign currencies. The paper is presenting the role of these prices in international financing decision (based on the theoretical model used to estimate cost of international capital, their impact on the foreign direct investment decision and on the international portfolio investment decision. Finally, the paper describe the economic consequences of the monetary public intervention on the financing and investment decision in direct connection with the business cycle theory. The paper associates the monetary policy to the business cycles. The paper comments the unsound solutions proposed against the economic crises and that continued to harm negatively these prices generating the seeds for next international economic recession. The paper is a theoretical one, containing some very interesting research hypothesis and opening the paths for presumable further empirical researches.

Money, the Banking System and Monetary Policy in Canada: A Teaching Unit.

Science.gov (United States)

Curtis, Douglas C. A.; Staunton, Ted, Ed.

One of a series of teaching units designed to introduce secondary school students to the Canadian economy, this handbook contains instructional materials on Canada's monetary system and policy. Material is organized and presented in terms of specific topic readings and illustrative activities. The topics covered in six sections are money, the…

State Manipulation and Asymptotic Inefficiency in a Dynamic Model of Monetary Policy

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jensen, Henrik; Lockwood, Ben

2000-01-01

. In a dynamic version of a well-known monetary policy game we show that such asymptotic efficiency may not be possible, as the presence of a state variable introduces the possibility of state manipulation. Moreover, the lowest inflation rate in Nash threats equilibrium may be increasing as players become more...

Exchange Rate Pass-through and Monetary Policy in South Africa

OpenAIRE

Aron, Janine; Farrell, Greg; Muellbauer, John; Sinclair, Peter

2010-01-01

Understanding how import prices adjust to exchange rates helps anticipate inflation effects and monetary policy responses. This paper examines exchange rate passthrough to the monthly import price index in South Africa during 1980-2009. A methodological innovation allows various short-run pass-through estimates to be calculated simply without recourse to a full structural model, yet without neglecting the long-run relationships between prices or the effects of previous import price changes, a...

Monetary transmission and business cycle asymmetry

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kakes, Jan

1998-01-01

This paper investigates asymmetric effects of monetary policy over the business cycle. A two-state Markov Switching Model is employed to model both recessions and expansions. For the United States and Germany, strong evidence is found that monetary policy is more effective in a recession than during

Monetary shocks and stock returns: identification through the impossible trinity

OpenAIRE

Ali K. Ozdagli; Yifan Yu

2012-01-01

This paper attempts to identify how monetary policy shocks affect stock prices by using Mundell and Fleming's theory of the "Impossible Trinity." According to this theory, it is impossible to simultaneously have a fixed exchange rate, free capital movement (an absence of capital controls), and an independent monetary policy. The authors present evidence that Hong Kong's monetary policy is heavily dependent on the monetary policy of the United States, a stance which is consistent with this the...

The effects of monetary policy in the Czech Republic: an empirical study

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Morgese Borys, Magdalena; Horvath, R.

-, č. 922 (2008), s. 1-27 Grant - others:Česká národní banka(CZ) A3/07 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z70850503 Keywords : monetary policy transmission * vector autoregression * sectoral prices Subject RIV: AH - Economics http://www.wdi.umich.edu/files/Publications/WorkingPapers/wp922.pdf

Monetary Policy under the Border between Price Stability and Financial Stability

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Irina-Raluca BADEA

2015-09-01

Full Text Available The international financial crisis drew the line for the international and national authorities that conducted and implemented faulty monetary and financial policies, regardless the potential risks that might arise. It was only after the crisis burst when everyone realized the impact the systemic risk can have on the global financial system and, consequently, on every national economy. The conventional point of view is that inflation is the main source of financial instability, but recent evidence points out the fact that reaching the inflation target does not necessarily mean that the financial system is stable. What is the most important is that any source of financial instability should be diminished if not erased, hence preserving financial stability has become an important goal for the authorities, who dispute whether to include it on the objectives list of central banks or authorize another institution to achieve it. Therefore, the main goal of this paper is framing the present monetary policy framework with respect to its objectives and strategies and the necessity to reconsider it in a realistic manner in order to prevent another collapse in case of an economic downturn.

Smart unconventional monetary (SUMO) policies: giving impetus to green investment. Climate Report no. 46

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ferron, Camille; Morel, Romain

2014-07-01

Today, given the amount of investment needed to reach a 2-degree emissions reduction target and the tight budgetary constraints of governments worldwide, public spending alone will not be sufficient alone. Therefore, there is a double need to not only shift private financial flows from 'brown' sectors to 'green' sectors, but also to leverage new sources of financing. Addressing the second challenge, this study reviews three families of proposed funding mechanisms based on unconventional monetary policies targeting 'green' or 'climate' investments. These 'Smart Unconventional Monetary' (or SUMO) policies include: (i) the use of Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) issued by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), (ii) green quantitative easing and (iii) the issuance of Carbon Certificates. Proponents of these mechanisms assert that they have a strong potential to provide substantial low-cost financing for green projects and reduce the risks linked to green investments for private investors. Furthermore, they could have further macro-economic co-benefits in specific circumstances. For example, implemented jointly with appropriate 'demand-side' mechanisms, a SUMO policy mechanism, even if short-term, could help trigger investment, bank lending and growth in Europe and pave the way for a longer-term green policies' framework. Nevertheless, this analysis has identified that the implementation of such mechanisms has a number of challenges to overcome. The first challenge is to convince policy makers that these mechanisms, even if they resort to unconventional monetary policies, will not lead to inflation. The second challenge is the difficulty to reach multilateral agreements in the short run, because of geopolitical and institutional barriers. The third challenge is the necessity to involve the private sector. Furthermore, to facilitate their contribution to low-carbon investment, this analysis suggests that

Effects of Fiscal Policy and Monetary Policy on the Stock Market in Poland

OpenAIRE

Yu Hsing

2013-01-01

The focus of this paper is to examine potential impacts of fiscal and monetary policies on stock market performance in Poland. Applying the GARCH model and based on a sample during 1999.Q2 to 2012.Q4, this paper finds that Poland’s stock market index is not affected by the ratio of government deficits or debt to GDP and is negatively influenced by the money market rate. The stock index and the ratio of M3 to GDP show a quadratic relationship with a critical value of 46.03%, suggesting that th...

The Impact of Non-Conventional Monetary Policy of NBP on Short Term Money Market

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Ewa Dziwok

2015-07-01

Full Text Available In the situation of financial crisis large numbers of central banks have started to ease monetary conditions. The National Bank of Poland, following central banks of biggest economies, started to offer unconventional methods to increase liquidity: foreign exchange swaps. The aim of the paper is twofold: to calculate the risk premium understood as a difference between an implied forward rate and a reference rate. The second is to show the sensitivity of the risk premium (a difference between to market disturbances and than to monetary policy easing.

The Real Interest Rate Spread as a Monetary Policy Indicator

OpenAIRE

Browne, Frank; Everett, Mary

2006-01-01

This paper employs a consumption-based capital asset pricing model to derive the generalised Fisher equation, in order to estimate the natural rate of interest and corresponding real interest rate spread for the US. Analysis reveals not only is the estimated real interest rate spread a useful measure of the degree of looseness/tightness in the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy stance, but also the variable contributes substantially to an understanding of the evolution of US inflation over the...

Preferences of the Central Reserve Bank of Peru and optimal monetary rules in the inflation targeting regime

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Nilda Mercedes Cabrera Pasca

2012-03-01

Full Text Available This study aims to identify the preferences of the monetary authority in the Peruvian regime of inflation targeting through the derivation of optimal monetary rules. To achieve that, we used a calibration strategy based on the choice of values of the parameters of preferences that minimize the square deviation between the true interest rate and interest rate optimal simulation. The results showed that the monetary authority has applied a system of flexible inflation targeting, prioritizing the stabilization of inflation, but without disregarding gradualism in interest rates. On the other hand, concern over output stabilization has been minimal, revealing that the output gap has been important because it contains information about future inflation and not because it is considered a variable goal in itself. Finally, when the smoothing of the nominal exchange rate is considered in the loss function of the monetary authority, the rank order of preferences has been maintained and the smoothing of the exchange rate proved insignificant.

monetary policy and macroeconomic management: a simulation ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

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The results show that monetary variables and government finance is linked through the government's net indebtedness to the banking system. ... monetary squeeze would reduce inflation rate faster than if the reduction in ... This reduction in money supply also leads to a reduction in output, .... Methodological Framework.

The impact of monetary policy on the economic growth of a small and open economy: The case of South Africa

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V Khabo

2014-08-01

Full Text Available This study evaluates the impact of monetary policy on the economic growth of a small and open economy like that of South Africa. Structuralists contend that changes in money supply (M3 and inflation (CPI are not significantly related to changes in economic growth (GDP, while orthodox economists argue that they are. Stucturalists also hold that monetary authorities cannot control M3, whereas orthodox economists believe they can. To structuralists, when monetary authorities pursue an expansionary policy, the opposite effect is achieved. Orthodox economists counter this argument. The ADT test statistic against the McKinnon critical values was used and it was found (i that money supply changes and inflation are significantly related to changes in economic growth, and (ii whereas monetary authorities can control M3 through the repo rate,  they cannot keep it within set targets.

The Effect of Monetary Policy on Exchange Rates : How to Solve the Puzzles

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kumah, F.Y.

1996-01-01

Recent empirical research on the effects of monetary policy shocks on exchange rate fluctuations have encountered the exchange rate puzzle and th e forward discount bias puzzle.The exchange rate puzzle is the tendency of the domestic currency (of non-US G-7 countries) to depreciate against the US

DUAL MONETARY SYSTEM AND MACROECONOMIC PERFORMANCE IN INDONESIA

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Sri Herianingrum

2016-02-01

Full Text Available This research aims to evaluate the impact of dual monetary policy shock on macroeconomic indicators of Indonesia: growth and inflation. In addition, this study will also examine whether conventional monetary policy has a particular impact upon Islamic banking sector. This research apply VAR (vector auto regressive method on monthly data from Bank Of Indonesia during the period of January 2010 to December 2013. The result of IRF explain that the interest rate channel find the hard way to accomplished the macroeconomic goals while the Islamic monetary instrument indicates the potential growth of output and hold the inflation low. The result of VDC describes that the Islamic instrument still affected by conventional monetary policy because of slow development in Islamic monetary systemDOI: 10.15408/aiq.v8i1.1990

International Monetary Instability Between the Wars: Structural Flaws or Misguided Policies?

OpenAIRE

Barry Eichengreen

1989-01-01

This paper reassesses the history of the international monetary system between the wars. It confirms the generality of several widely held interpretations of recent experience with floating exchange rates. There is a positive association between nominal exchange rate variability and real exchange rate variability. But policies of intervention which reduce nominal exchange rate variability do not guarantee a proportionate reduction in nominal exchange rate risk or in real exchange rate variabi...

International Monetary Stability Between the Wars: Structural Flaws or Misguided Policies?

OpenAIRE

Eichengreen, Barry

1989-01-01

This paper examines the international monetary system between the Wars. It confirms the generality of several widely held interpretations of recent experience with floating exchange rates. There is a positive association between nominal exchange rate flexibility and nominal exchange rate variability, and between nominal and real exchange rate variability. But policies which reduce nominal exchange rate variability do not guarantee a proportionate reduction in nominal exchange rate risk or in ...

Monetary policy and inflation targeting in a small open-economy

OpenAIRE

Abdul Karim, Zulkefly; Md. Said, Fathin Faezah; Jusoh, Mansor; Md. Thahir, Md. Zyadi

2009-01-01

This paper investigates the transmission mechanism of monetary policy and inflation targeting in a small open-economy by using backward-looking of aggregate supply (AS) and aggregate demand (AD) framework. Since September 1998 until July 2005, Malaysia has implemented a currency pegged to the U.S dollar in responding to the Asian financial crisis. However, since the 21st of July 2005 until at present, the Central Bank of Malaysia (CBM) has eliminated pegging with the U.S dollar and moved to t...

MONETARY TRANSMISSION CHANNELS IN FLEXIBLE MONETARY AND EXCHANGE RATE REGIMES: THE CASE OF SELECTED TRANSITION ECONOMIES

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Kosta JOSIFIDIS

2010-01-01

Full Text Available The paper explores selected monetary transmission channels in the case of transition economies. Namely, an exchange rate channel, an interest rate channel, direct and indirect influence to an exchange rate, are focused. Specific (former transition economies are differentiated according the combination of implemented monetary and exchange rate regimes: exchange rate as a nominal anchor and rigid exchange rate regimes, exchange rate as a nominal anchor and intermediate exchange rate regimes, and implicit/explicit inflation targeting monetary regime and floating (managed/free exchange rate regime. The monetary transmission is tracked during different phases in a transition process towards the EU and compared between different nominal anchors and exchange rate regimes. In order to track the influence of a monetary policy instruments (impulses to different goals of a monetary policy (responses during the period from 6-24 months, we use VAR and VEC models. Monthly frequency of following time series are used in the models: nominal exchange rates, consumer price indexes, foreign exchange reserves, and reference interest rates. The aim of the paper is to point to the distinction between de jure and de facto exchange rate regimes, and to the adequacy of used combination of monetary and exchange rate regimes having in mind revealed features of investigated monetary transmission channels.

Inside the Impossible Triangle:Monetary Policy Autonomy in a Credible Target Zone

OpenAIRE

W. Jos Jansen

2003-01-01

This paper examines the trade-off between exchange rate stability and monetary autonomy for a target zone. Using the guilder-mark target zone in the pre-EMU period as a case study, we empirically estimate how much policy discretion the Dutch central bank still enjoyed and how much had been ceded to the German central bank. The sum of these two measures is an estimate of the policy autonomy under a free float. We find that the narrow guilder-mark target zone still permitted a modest degree of ...

Monetary management in a monetary union

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Thygesen, Niels

1991-01-01

The design and implementation of monetary policy in the EMU raises a number of difficult conceptual issues, though less complex than those of the transition. The Delors Report (1989) addressed three issues, in particular: (1) the appropriate mandate for the European system of Central Banks (ESCB)......, and on the desirable degree of decentralization within the ESCB of operational and supervisory authority. Some preliminary reflections on these issues are found in the final section......The design and implementation of monetary policy in the EMU raises a number of difficult conceptual issues, though less complex than those of the transition. The Delors Report (1989) addressed three issues, in particular: (1) the appropriate mandate for the European system of Central Banks (ESCB......): (2) the relationship of the ESCB to national and EEC political authorities, and (3) the accountability of the ESCB for its implementation of its mandate. The paper pays special attention to the interaction of these three issues. The Delors Report was less specific on the desing of instruments...

PRICE RIGIDITY AND MONETARY NON-NEUTRALITY IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES: EVIDENCE FROM NIGERIA

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Nathaniel E. Urama

2013-04-01

Full Text Available In an attempt to find out the degree of monetary non-neutrality in Nigeria we started from finding out the size of price rigidity in the country. Computation with Ball and Romer method showed that price rigidity is optimal decision for firms in Nigeria only when the menu cost is well above 2.28% of the firm’s revenue which is on the high side, showing the likelihood of weak price rigidity in the country. Confirming this, the IRFs of the SVAR shows that the response of inflation to nominal shock has only one period lag. These combined results led to a small though persistent response of output to the nominal shock. The result of the study therefore points towards large nominal and small real effect of monetary policy in Nigeria and conclude that monetary policy will be a better option for contractionary plan but not for an expansionary plan.

Moneta, attività liquide, velocità di circolazione e politica monetaria. (Money, liquid assets, velocity and monetary policy

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G. GARVY

2014-07-01

Full Text Available The present article analyses the significance of the rise in liquid assets in relation to GNP, the related increase in the velocity of money and the declining role of money as a financial asset in the U.S. economy. Moreover, the significance of these developments for monetary policy is considered. The author argues that far from being inimical to the execution of monetary policy, changes in velocity are actually another aspect of the system of checks and balances which characterise the operations of the economic system.JEL: E40, E50, E52

Monetary Policy Shocks and Stock Returns Reactions: Evidence ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

SIPHAMBE, H.K. (PROF.)

context is useful to both monetary authorities and investors. ... they should target stock prices or use stock price information as indicators of the monetary ... current account transactions, with remaining controls on the capital account eliminated ...

Planning nature in urbanized countries. An analysis of monetary and non-monetary impacts of conservation policy scenarios in the Netherlands

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Frans J. Sijtsma

2017-03-01

Full Text Available Planning and conserving nature areas are challenging tasks in urbanized and intensively used countries like the Netherlands. This paper supports decision making and public policy debate about these tasks in both an empirical and a methodological way. Empirically, we explore policy alternatives by determining the potential consequences of different nature policy scenarios in the Netherlands. Methodologically, we employ a mixed monetary and non-monetary evaluation method known as multi-criteria cost-benefit analysis (MCCBA. We evaluate four new future directions of Dutch nature policy that address four dominant stakeholder demands: biodiversity conservation, the provision of ecosystem services, recreational potential as well as economic gains. To balance compact presentation of evaluation outcomes on the one hand and information richness of results on the other, we distinguish between two impact indicator sets: three “headline” and ten “elaborate” indicators. Using these indicators we discuss the quantitative assessment of the four nature policy scenarios by comparing them to two other scenarios, reflecting the 2010 stand-still baseline situation (2010 as well as a reference policy (Trend. In total, we evaluate six scenarios; four present new directions and two reflect existing or recently (2010 halted practices. Our findings first of all show that even in an urbanized country like the Netherlands, with its intensive competition among land use functions, serious gains in national and international biodiversity are possible. Second, we find that it is doubtful whether stimulating the provision of regulating ecosystem services in a country which applies intensive and profitable agricultural techniques is beneficial. Other countries or areas that are less suitable for intensive agricultural practices may be more logical for this. Finally we demonstrate that increasing urban recreational green space − a common challenge for many urban areas

Planning nature in urbanized countries. An analysis of monetary and non-monetary impacts of conservation policy scenarios in the Netherlands.

Science.gov (United States)

Sijtsma, Frans J; van der Bilt, Willem G M; van Hinsberg, Arjen; de Knegt, Bart; van der Heide, Martijn; Leneman, Hans; Verburg, René

2017-03-01

Planning and conserving nature areas are challenging tasks in urbanized and intensively used countries like the Netherlands. This paper supports decision making and public policy debate about these tasks in both an empirical and a methodological way. Empirically, we explore policy alternatives by determining the potential consequences of different nature policy scenarios in the Netherlands. Methodologically, we employ a mixed monetary and non-monetary evaluation method known as multi-criteria cost-benefit analysis (MCCBA). We evaluate four new future directions of Dutch nature policy that address four dominant stakeholder demands: biodiversity conservation, the provision of ecosystem services, recreational potential as well as economic gains. To balance compact presentation of evaluation outcomes on the one hand and information richness of results on the other, we distinguish between two impact indicator sets: three "headline" and ten "elaborate" indicators. Using these indicators we discuss the quantitative assessment of the four nature policy scenarios by comparing them to two other scenarios, reflecting the 2010 stand-still baseline situation (2010) as well as a reference policy (Trend). In total, we evaluate six scenarios; four present new directions and two reflect existing or recently (2010) halted practices. Our findings first of all show that even in an urbanized country like the Netherlands, with its intensive competition among land use functions, serious gains in national and international biodiversity are possible. Second, we find that it is doubtful whether stimulating the provision of regulating ecosystem services in a country which applies intensive and profitable agricultural techniques is beneficial. Other countries or areas that are less suitable for intensive agricultural practices may be more logical for this. Finally we demonstrate that increasing urban recreational green space - a common challenge for many urban areas - can only be achieved at

The impact of fiscal and monetary policies on unemployment problem in Nigeria (managerial economic perspective

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Nick Attamah

2015-06-01

Full Text Available This paper investigates the impact of fiscal and Monetary Policies on Unemployment Problem in Nigeria and covers the periods 1980 to 2013. To achieve this, fiscal policy was captured here by government expenditures and revenues respectively while monetary policy was proxied by broad Money Supply (M2, Interest and Exchange rates respectively. The methodology adopted was econometric analysis employing OLS techniques and unit roots of the series were examined using the Augmented Dickey-Fuller after which the co-integration tests was conducted using the Engle Granger approach. Error correction models were estimated to take care of the short run dynamics. It was found that while government expenditure had a positive relationship with unemployment problem in Nigeria, the result of government revenue was negative and insignificant on unemployment problem. For monetary policy, it was found that money supply and exchange rate had positive and significant impact while interest rate has only a positive relationship on unemployment problem in Nigeria. This meets the a priori expectation. The study also revealed that increases in interest and exchange rates escalate unemployment by increasing cost of production which discourages the private sector from employing large workforce. On the other hand, national productivity measured by real GDP had a negative and significant impact on unemployment rate in Nigeria. This paper recommends that for an effective combat to unemployment problem in Nigeria, there should be a systematic diversion of strategies, thus more emphasis should be laid on aggressively pursuing entrepreneurial development and increased productivity. Again government should aggressively focus on investment, employment generation and economic growth that has mechanism to trickle does to the masses

Information frictions and monetary policy

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Matějka, Filip

2012-01-01

Roč. 6, č. 1 (2012), s. 7-24 ISSN 1802-792X Institutional support: RVO:67985998 Keywords : nominal rigidity * information frictions * monetary economics Subject RIV: AH - Economics http://www.vsfs.cz/periodika/acta-2012-01.pdf

Monetary Policy and Real Estate Prices: A Disaggregated Analysis for Switzerland

OpenAIRE

Berlemann, Michael; Freese, Julia

2010-01-01

Most empirical studies found that monetary policy has a significant effect on house prices while stock markets remain unaffected by interest rate shocks. In this paper we conduct a more detailed analysis by studying various sub-segments of the real estate market. Em-ploying a new dataset for Switzerland we estimate vector autoregressive models and find substitution effects between house and apartment prices on the one hand and rental prices on the other. Interestingly enough, commercial prope...

Equilibrium Strategies in a Fiscal-Monetary Game : a Simulation Analysis

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Irena Woroniecka-Leciejewicz

2015-01-01

Full Text Available The results from a simulation analysis of the policy-mix have been presented, carried out in a fiscal-monetary game, in which fiscal and monetary authorities make decisions from the point of view of realizing their own respective economic objectives. In order to represent the interrelations between, on the one hand, the instruments of fiscal policy and of monetary policy, and, on the other hand - the economic effects resulting from their application, a modified logistic function was used. The method adopted enables consideration of the specificity of the effects of these instruments on the business cycle, consisting in the limited effectiveness of applying any extremely restrictive or expansive policy, and the respective impact on the economy. The simulation study was meant to show the influence exerted both by the parameters of the function and the priorities of the fiscal and monetary authorities on the Nash equilibrium state, corresponding to the choice of a particular combination of budgetary and monetary policies. (original abstract

Dual Monetary System and Macroeconomic Performance in Indonesia

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Sri Herianingrum

2016-02-01

Full Text Available This research aims to evaluate the impact of dual monetary policyshock on macroeconomic indicators of Indonesia: growth and inflation. Inaddition, this study will also examine whether conventional monetary policy hasa particular impact upon Islamic banking sector. This research apply VAR (vectorauto regressive method on monthly data from Bank Of Indonesia during theperiod of January 2010 to December 2013. The result of IRF explain that theinterest rate channel find the hard way to accomplished the macroeconomic goalswhile the Islamic monetary instrument indicates the potential growth of outputand hold the inflation low. The result of VDC describes that the Islamic instrumentstill affected by conventional monetary policy because of slow development inIslamic monetary systemDOI: 10.15408/aiq.v8i1.2509

Modelling the monetary policy reaction function of the Colombian Central Bank

OpenAIRE

Otero, Jesus; Ramírez, Manuel

2008-01-01

This paper proposes a simple Ordered Probit model to analyse the monetary policy reaction function of the Colombian Central Bank. There is evidence that the reaction function is asymmetric, in the sense that the Bank increases the Bank rate when the gap between observed inflation and the inflation target (lagged once) is positive, but it does not reduce the Bank rate when the gap is negative. This behaviour suggests that the Bank is more interested in fulfilling the announced inflation target...

US stock market crashes and their aftermath: Implications for monetary policy

OpenAIRE

Mishkin, Frederic S.; White, Eugene N.

2002-01-01

This paper examines fifteen historical episodes of stock market crashes and their aftermath in the United States over the last one hundred years. Our basic conclusion from studying these episodes is that financial instability is the key problem facing monetary policy makers and not stock market crashes, even if they reflect the possible bursting of a bubble. With a focus on financial stability rather than the stock market, the response of central banks to stock market fluctuations is more lik...

Inflation and Monetary Policy in Russia: Transition Experience and Future Recommendations

OpenAIRE

Marek Dabrowski; Wojciech Paczynski; Lukasz Rawdanowicz

2002-01-01

This paper seeks the main factors behind inflation in Russia over the period 1996–2001. It presents a succinct description of Russian monetary policy and inflation developments. The econometric analysis establishes a long-run relationship between demand for the real money balances on the one side and the real income and short-term interest rate on the other side. It also presents several specifications of modeling shortrun dynamics of inflation. An account is made for the change in the exchan...

Monetary policy and bank behavior: Empirical evidence from India

OpenAIRE

Ghosh, Saibal

2006-01-01

The paper develops an empirical model to explore the role that bank characteristics play in influencing the monetary transmission process. Employing data on Indian commercial banks for the period 1992-2004, the findings indicate that for banks classified according to size and capitalization, a monetary contraction lowers bank lending, although large and well-capitalized banks are able to shield their loan portfolio from monetary shocks.

Comparison of Monetary Policy Actions and Central Bank Communication on Tackling Asset Price Bubbles-Evidence from China's Stock Market.

Science.gov (United States)

Sun, Ou; Liu, Zhixin

2016-01-01

We examine the different effects of monetary policy actions and central bank communication on China's stock market bubbles with a Time-varying Parameter SVAR model. We find that with negative responses of fundamental component and positive responses of bubble component of asset prices, contractionary monetary policy induces the observed stock prices to rise during periods of large bubbles. By contrast, central bank communication acts on the market through expectation guidance and has more significant effects on stock prices in the long run, which implies that central bank communication be used as an effective long-term instrument for the central bank's policymaking.

An Assessment of Malaysian Monetary Policy During the Global Financial Crisis of 2008-09

OpenAIRE

Selim Elekdag; Subir Lall; Harun Alp

2012-01-01

Malaysia was hit hard by the global financial crisis of 2008-09. Anticipating the downturn that would follow the episode of extreme financial turbulence, Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) let the exchange rate depreciate as capital flowed out, and preemptively cut the policy rate by 150 basis points. Against this backdrop, this paper tries to quantify how much deeper the recession would have been without the BNM's monetary policy response. Taking the most intense year of the crisis as our baseline (...

A Natural Experiment in Monetary Policy Covering Three Episodes of Growth and Decline in the Economy and the Stock Market

OpenAIRE

Milton Friedman

2005-01-01

The third of three episodes in a major natural experiment in monetary policy that started more than 80 years ago is just now coming to an end. The experiment consists in observing the effect on the economy and the stock market of the monetary policies followed during and after three very similar periods of rapid economic growth in response to rapid technological change: the booms of the 1920s in the United States, the 1980s in Japan and the 1990s in the United States. In this experiment, the ...

The role and importance of ECB's monetary policy in the global economic crisis

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Stakić Nikola

2014-01-01

Full Text Available This paper presents the role and importance of the European Central Bank (ECB in the context of measures and effects that are being taken to repair the consequences of the current economic crisis. The ECB, together with the European single currency, the euro, symbolizes long-lasting monetary integration of the EU states. Such form of integration has created the possibility of a supranational action of ECB in the banking sector and financial markets in general. Along with the other most important central banks in the world, the ECB applies various unconventional instruments of monetary policy to stimulate economic growth and development. In this context, the paper explains the nature and mechanism of such measures in order to influence on the insufficient liquidity in the financial markets.

Monetary Policy Transmission and the Labour Market in the Non‑eurozone Visegrad Group Countries in 2000–2014. Evidence from a SVAR Analysis

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Włodarczyk Przemysław

2017-12-01

Full Text Available This paper is aimed at filling the gap in existing economic research by delivering new evidence on the money‑labour nexus in the emerging markets of the non‑eurozone Visegrad group countries (i.e. Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland. Analyses are based on the Strucutral VAR (SVAR models of the monetary transmission mechanism, estimated using monthly data from the 2000:1-2014:2 period. In order to obtain impulse responses, the short‑run restrictions set, based on the monetary transmission theory, is imposed. Two different identification schemes are considered. The results confirm that there exists a nexus between monetary policy, employment, and unemployment. According to the obtained estimates monetary policy shocks invoked lagged, hump‑shaped reactions of output, employment and unemployment in each of the analysed countries.

Financial stability, monetary policy and budgetary coordination in EMU

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Claudiu Tiberiu ALBULESCU

2012-08-01

Full Text Available A series of recent studies analyze the impact of financial crisis on the fiscal soundness in the Euro area countries. Even if their documented results present the transmission mechanisms of the financial instability toward the fiscal sector, a more realistic problem is related to the contribution of the fiscal and budgetary disequilibrium to the financial instability propagation. In this line, we show, based on a simple econometric model, that, beside the expansionary monetary policy, the budgetary deficit conducts to the financial stability deterioration. The financial stability of the Euro area is measured based on an aggregate financial stability index, constructed by employing the IMF methodology used for the financial stress index.

In the absence of fiscal union, the Eurozone needs a more flexible monetary policy

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Pietro Alessandrini

2015-12-01

Full Text Available This paper makes three points. The first is that external imbalances between Member States are relevant for the performance of a monetary union when the latter is not backed by a strong political commitment and a solid political framework. Eurozone policymakers have ignored these inter-member imbalances and have instead concentrated on union-wide imbalances, so much so that statistical data on the former phenomenon still remain largely incomplete. There are signs that a correction is in the making, which we hope will lead to a comprehensive quantitative knowledge of intra-EMU imbalances. The second objective of the paper is to design specific policies aimed at reducing inter-member external disequilibria, for example by fixing targets on current-account imbalances symmetrically applied to both deficit and surplus countries. The contrast between the keen attention of the EZ policymakers on national fiscal imbalances and the belated and lukewarm attention given to external imbalances is striking. The third aim of the paper is to propose a more flexible monetary policy aimed at controlling the distribution of liquidity among Member States, resulting from inter-member external imbalances. Our proposal is that National Central Banks should add a risk premium cost to official interest rates on banks that accumulate “excessive” borrowings or deposits to compensate, respectively, for outflows and inflows of the monetary base due to the effect of external imbalances. JEL classification: E42, E52, E58

Industries and the bank lending effects of bank credit demand and monetary policy in Germany

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Raabe, K.; Arnold, I.J.M.; Kool, C.J.M.

2006-01-01

This paper presents evidence on the industry effects of bank lending in Germany and asks whether bank lending to single industries depends on industry-specific bank credit demand or on monetary policy as determinant of bank credit supply. To this end, we estimate individual bank lending functions

POLITICAL MONETARY CYCLES IN COALITION AND SINGLE PARTY GOVERNMENT PERIODS: A CASE STUDY ON TURKEY

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AHMET EMRAH TAYYAR

2017-12-01

Full Text Available According to the theory of political monetary cycles, the government manipulates monetary policy during election periods in order to be re-elected. According to the said theory, expansionary monetary policies are implemented before the elections with opportunistic objective, while the contractionary monetary policies are implemented to stabilize the economy immediately after the elections. The use of monetary policy instruments for political purposes depends on the presence of a non-autonomous central bank, flexible exchange rate regime in the country, and the coordination between fiscal and monetary policies. Thus, the changes in the monetary policy indicators in election periods during coalition and single party governments in Turkey between 1990 and 2016 were examined in the present study. The money in circulation (M0, M1 money supply, domestic loans and inflation series were analyzed with the seasonal Box-Jenkins method for the above mentioned periods. Based on the findings of the study, political monetary cycles were not observed during the 1990-2000 coalition governments. It was determined that there were political monetary cycles during the single party government period between 2000 and 2016.Furthermore, although it could be expected that the political monetary cycles would be removed with the liberalization of the Turkish central bank on 25 April 2001, the existence of political monetary cycles during the period of 2000-2016 indicates that central bank independence was not fully achieved in Turkey. Based on another finding of the present study, the lack of political monetary cycles during the coalition government periods could lead to the failure in financing the budget deficit that increase due to political reasons with monetary policies. However, due to the existence of political monetary cycles during the single party government period, it could be argued that politically induced budget deficits changed in consistence with the

Effects of Monetary Shocks on Exchange Rate: Empirical Evidence from India

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Sharma Chandan

2017-08-01

Full Text Available This paper examines the effect of monetary policy shocks on exchange rate in a Multiple Indicator Approach (MIA framework. This study has employed a monetary policy index of key monetary policy instruments in India (Bank rate, Cash Reserve Ratio, Repo and Reverse Repo rates. The study finds the empirical evidence for puzzling behavior of price level and exchange rate. Both price and exchange rate increase initially in response to a contractionary policy shock. Policy shocks affect output, inflation and exchange rate to an appreciable extent over a forecasting horizon of one year.

MANAGEMENT OF SUSTAINABLE SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT OF REGIONS WITHIN FISCAL AND MONETARY POLICY IN RUSSIA

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T. Usmanova

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Strategy of social and economic development of regions has to be a basis for formation budgetary and tax and a monetary policy. Formation of strategic plans have to provide an exit to the new level of innovative economic and social development of Russia. Adaptation of the current legislation is necessary for the solution of the set major problems regarding budgetary and tax and a monetary policy in the Russian Federation. The important direction of development of social and economic development of territories is the clustering and formation of projects of the public-private partnership (PPP. Within integration of the countries into the world economy the organizations as systems in the form of clusters and the PPP projects can only be the competitive. Within formation of the organizations as systems it is necessary to provide formation of standards of a sustainable development (SEU for social protection of the population and increase of the human capital.

The Effectiveness of Monetary Policy Towards Stock Index Case Study : Jakarta Islamic Index 2006-2014

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Lak lak Nashat el Hasanah

2016-06-01

Full Text Available Fluctuation in economy situation is an important indicator for investor decision making. The investor actions are base on the minimum risk while having maximum profit. One of it is observing the condition of macro variables within monetary policy. This research aims to analyze the impact of inflation, money supply, exchange rate, and birate towards stock of jakarta islamic Index. The type data used is times series periode 2006-2014. Multiple linier regression with chow test and dummy variable approach to compare and to know the behavior of each independent variables. The result shows partially that birate and exchange rate negatively impact Jakarta Islamic Index before global monetary crisis in 2008, while inflation and money supply not that significantly impact. After global monetary crisis in 2008, partially, birate variable and money supply significantly giving positive influence to Jakarta Islamic Index, while at same time exchange rate and inflation are not significantly influencial. Simultaneously, inflation, money supply, exchange rate, and birate influence Jakarta islamic Index.

The changing U.S. financial system : some implications for the monetary transmission mechanism

OpenAIRE

Gordon H. Sellon

2002-01-01

An important part of monetary policy is the monetary transmission mechanism, the process by which monetary policy actions influence the economy. While the transmission mechanism involves a number of channels, including exchange rates, bank credit, and asset prices, most economists consider interest rates to be the principal avenue by which monetary policy affects economic activity.> In recent decades, significant changes in the structure of financial markets and institutions in the United Sta...

Fiscal and monetary policy interactions in an endogenous growth model with financial intermediaries

OpenAIRE

Espinosa, Marco A.; Yip, Chong K.

1995-01-01

We review some inflationary and growth claims surrounding fiscal and monetary policy interactions. While financial intermediation has long been acknowledged as a key mechanism in the transmission of these interactions, only recently have economists incorporated the explicit modeling of such intermediaries in their analyses. Here we model financial intermediaries explicitly. We find that the relation between growth and inflation depends crucially on the agents' degree of relative risk aversion...

Aggregate Stability in Monetary Economy with Consumption Tax and Taylor Rule

OpenAIRE

Fujisaki, Seiya

2016-01-01

We analyze aggregate stability of a monetary economy with an interest-rate control type of monetary policy and endogenous consumption tax rate under balanced-budget rule, in terms of equilibrium determinacy. We find the effect of the response to income in monetary policy on macroeconomic stability depends on whether the consumption tax rate is adequately high.

The Impact of Key Monetary Variables on the Economic Growth of the CEMAC Zone

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Forgha Godfrey NJIMANTED

2016-09-01

Full Text Available This study seeks to empirically explore the impact of key monetary policy variables on the economic growth in the CEMAC zone from the period of 1981 to 2015. Carried out using the Ex post facto research design based on the principal components selection approach, the study interacts money supply, interest rate, economic growth, and inflation rate, among themselves and their lagged values using the Vector Auto-regressive (VAR analytical technique. The Classical quantity theory of money, the Cambridge Cash Balanced, the liquidity preference theory and the Monetarists as theoretical frameworks were explored to appreciate the time trends of the selected variables on the economic growth of the CEMAC zone. Based on the (VAR methodology, the study reveals that key monetary policy variables influence economic growth of the CEMAC zone in different ways with inflation rate as the impact factor. On the basis of the above findings and the evidence from other studies, lending and inflation rate generated substantial destabilizing impacts on the economic growth, suggesting that the monetary authorities should play a critical role in creating an enabling environment for growth. The determination of the optimal lending rate should reflect the overall internal rate of returns in the productive sectors with due attention to market fundamentals. In line with this, the Central Bank of CEMAC should be given complete instrumental autonomy to operate depending on a set of in-built targets by the individual countries of the zone. Effective monetary targeting and accommodating monetary policies should be designed and implemented as the need arises with little or no political motives.

"Financial Bubbles" and Monetary Policy

Science.gov (United States)

Tikhonov, Yuriy A.; Pudovkina, Olga E.; Permjakova, Juliana V.

2016-01-01

The relevance of this research is caused by the need of strengthening a role of monetary regulators to prevent financial bubbles in the financial markets. The aim of the article is the analysis of a problem of crisis phenomena in the markets of financial assets owing to an inadequate growth of their cost, owing to subjective reasons. The leading…

U.S.Stock Market Crashes and Their Aftermath: Implications for Monetary Policy

OpenAIRE

Eugene White; Frederic Mishkin

2002-01-01

This paper examines fifteen historical episodes of stock market crashes and their aftermath in the United States over the last one hundred years. Our basic conclusion from studying these episodes is that financial instability is the key problem facing monetary policy makers and not stock market crashes, even if they reflect the possible bursting of a bubble. With a focus on financial stability rather than the stock market, the response of central banks to stock market fluctuations is more lik...

Monetary policy transmission mechanism in Poland. What do we know in 2011?

OpenAIRE

Tomasz Łyziak; Oksana Demchuk; Jan Przystupa; Anna Sznajderska; Ewa Wróbel

2012-01-01

In the light of the results of empirical studies presented in the Report and the literature available45 it may be concluded that the form of the monetary policy transmission mechanism in Poland is consistent with structural features of the Polish economy and coincides with those characteristic of more developed European economies, e.g. the euro area. Although the financial intermediation system is less developed than in the euro area, Poland, like the new EU Member States is characterised by ...

Fiscal, Monetary Policies and Institutions’ Role (Political, Social and Economic in Pakistan

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Tariq HUSSAIN

2012-06-01

Full Text Available The purpose of this study is to test the fundamental relationship between fiscal, monetary policies and institutions in Pakistan from 1976 to 2008. These policies are roadmap in the progress of a country. No doubt both these policies are useful tools in the hands of the government to increase the per capita GDP of the country. Such policies depict the performance level of institutions of a country. Better institutions leads to higher level of growth. Institutions perform significant role in the progress of any country. The growth targets can be achieved through institutions. Higher the quality of institutions, higher the performance would be shown by economy. Countries can reach middle-income levels despite some corruption, but further growth requires much better institutions (Easterly, 2001, pp. 234-235, 245-248, Rodrik, 2003, pp. 16-17.Kwiatkowski et al (1992 test is used to test unit root and short run relationship is analyzed through ECM. Auto regressive distributed lags (ARDL shows that there is long run relationship among growth policies and institutions’ role in Pakistan.

Financial structure and monetary policy transmission in transition countries

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Elbourne, A.; de Haan, J.

Using the structural vector autoregressive methodology, we present estimates of monetary transmission for the new and future EU member countries in Central and Eastern Europe. Unlike most previous research we include ten transition countries. We examine to what extent monetary transmission in these

Monetary transmission and bank lending in the Netherlands

OpenAIRE

Kakes, Jan

1998-01-01

This paper investigates the role of bank lending in the monetary transmission process in the Netherlands. We observe significant differences between the responses of corporate and household lending following a monetary shock. We also find that banks hold a buffer stock of securities which they use to offset monetary shocks. The main implication of our study is that a bank lending channel is not likely to be an important transmission mechanism of monetary policy.

A Monetary Policy Simulation Game

Science.gov (United States)

Lengwiler, Yvan

2004-01-01

The author presents a computer game that puts the player in the role of a central bank governor. The game is a stochastic simulation of a standard reduced form macro model, and the user interacts with this simulation by manipulating the interest rate. The problem the player faces is in many ways quite realistic--just as a real monetary authority,…

Comparison of Monetary Policy Actions and Central Bank Communication on Tackling Asset Price Bubbles—Evidence from China’s Stock Market

Science.gov (United States)

Sun, Ou; Liu, Zhixin

2016-01-01

We examine the different effects of monetary policy actions and central bank communication on China’s stock market bubbles with a Time-varying Parameter SVAR model. We find that with negative responses of fundamental component and positive responses of bubble component of asset prices, contractionary monetary policy induces the observed stock prices to rise during periods of large bubbles. By contrast, central bank communication acts on the market through expectation guidance and has more significant effects on stock prices in the long run, which implies that central bank communication be used as an effective long-term instrument for the central bank’s policymaking. PMID:27851796

The impact of monetary policy on bank lending rate in South Africa

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B.T. Matemilola

2015-03-01

Full Text Available The pass-through of the policy rates to bank lending rate is an important subject matter because it measures the effectiveness of monetary policy to control inflation or stabilize the economy. This study investigates the long-run interest rate pass-through of the money market rate to the bank lending rate and asymmetric adjustment of the bank lending rate. The study applies the momentum threshold autoregressive and asymmetric error correction models. The asymmetric error correction results reveal that bank lending rate adjusts to a decrease in the money market rate in South Africa. The findings suggest that the South African commercial banks adjust their lending rate downward but the lending rate appears rigid upward, which supports the customer reaction hypothesis.

In the absence of fiscal union, the Eurozone needs a more flexible monetary policy: A reply

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Pietro Alessandrini

2016-09-01

Full Text Available The authors (A&F reply to Andrea Terzi’s comment on their previous paper, published in the December 2015 issue of this Review. Andrea Terzi’s two main objections to A&F analysis are: that diverging current-account (CA balances enhanced the fragility of the member countries of the euroarea, but were not the cause of the liquidity crisis that occurred between 2010 and 2012; and that A&F’s quantity-theoretic view of monetary policy implementation is not applicable to a floating currency like the euro, or to the Target2 payment system. To these objections, the authors reply that the policy prescription for targeting current-account balances is based on the proposition that relevant underlying factors such as losses of competitiveness, sticky real exchange rates, persistent trade deficits, sudden stops in capital flows, and vanishing liquidity can account for a liquidity crisis independent of fiscal irresponsibility; and that their original model simply shows that, in the aftermath of the financial crisis, the size of the balance sheets of major central banks has exploded. Considering the high correlation between the size of central banks’ balance sheets and the monetary base, the obvious question is: if the quantity of the monetary base is not a useful concept, why are we having an indigestion of quantitative easing? JEL: E42, E52, E58.

The reaction of bank lending to monetary policy in Brazil

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Tony Takeda

2005-03-01

Full Text Available This paper evaluates the relevance of the "bank lending channel'' of monetary policy transmission in Brazil. Disaggregated monthly data of the Brazilian banks balance sheets from December 1994 to December 2001 are analyzed. In addition to the short-term interest rate, we consider the effects of another monetary policy instrument frequently used in Brazil, represented by reserve requirements on overall banks deposits - demand, savings, and time deposits. Dynamic panel data techniques are employed. Our results suggest that the impact of reserve requirements is relevant and stronger for larger banks loans. This finding results from the progressive reserve rates required from banks, which affect to a greater extent banks with larger deposit volumes.Este artigo avalia o canal de empréstimos bancários na transmissão da política monetária. A análise foca os dados mensais desagregados do balanço patrimonial dos bancos comerciais brasileiros de dezembro de 1994 a dezembro de 2001. Em adição à taxa básica de juros de curto prazo, este estudo considera também os efeitos de um outro instrumento de política monetária usado freqüentemente no Brasil, representado pelos recolhimentos compulsórios sobre os depósitos à vista, de poupança e a prazo. A partir de técnicas de análise de dados em painel dinâmico, os resultados dos testes sugerem que o impacto dos compulsórios é relevante e é mais forte sobre os empréstimos dos grandes bancos, conclusão que decorre de recolhimentos compulsórios de caráter progressivo, que afetam mais fortemente os bancos com maiores volumes de depósitos.

Limitations to Keynesian demand management through monetary policy: whither Cartesian policy control

OpenAIRE

Heise, Arne

2004-01-01

During a distinguished career, Basil Moore has made numerous important contributions to macroeconomics and monetary economics, and is renowned as the progenitor of the ‘horizontalist’ analysis of endogenous money. More recently, he has embraced complexity theory as part of an ongoing effort to understand macroeconomics as an evolving, path-dependent process. This book celebrates and explores Basil Moore’s interests in and contributions to monetary and macroeconomic theory.

Forecasting and Monetary Policy Analysis in Low-Income Countries; Food and non-Food Inflation in Kenya

OpenAIRE

Michal Andrle; Andrew Berg; R. Armando Morales; Rafael Portillo; Jan Vlcek

2013-01-01

We develop a semi-structural new-Keynesian open-economy model, with separate food and non-food inflation dynamics, for forecasting and monetary policy analysis in low-income countries and apply it to Kenya. We use the model to run several policy-relevant exercises. First, we filter international and Kenyan data (on output, inflation and its components, exchange rates and interest rates) to recover a model-based decomposition of most variables into trends (or potential values) and temporary mo...

Sustainable monetary policy : lessons and evidence from the bank suspension period, 1797-1821

OpenAIRE

Newby, Elisa Maria Susanna

2008-01-01

This thesis re-examines the suspension of the gold standard rule in Britain between 1797 and 1821 within the framework of the theory of credible and time consistent monetary policy. By combining both historical and theoretical analysis the thesis challenges the prevailing theory in which the gold standard is considered as a contingent rule and the suspension as an exogenously credible regime. Firstly, the thesis analyses what made the suspension credible in the absence of the gold standar...

Non-linear effects of the U.S. Monetary Policy in the Long Run

OpenAIRE

Olmos, Lorena; Sanso Frago, Marcos

2014-01-01

We find non-linearities in the U.S. long-run relationships among trend inflation, growth rate and financial frictions. Moreover, our results show that mismeasurements of the natural rate of interest deviate the trend inflation from its target, which is especially clear when monetary policy reacts preventively against inflation deviations. The long-run growth rate, the trend inflation and the natural rate of interest, specified as time-varying, are jointly estimated over the period 1960:Q1-201...

MONETARY EXPECTATIONS OF THE ROMANIAN EXECUTIVES REGARDING THE ADHERATION

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Ramona DUMITRIU

2006-01-01

Full Text Available This paper explores the monetary expectations induced to the managers of Romanian firms by adheration. It is based on an investigation among twenty Romanian executives regarding the impact on adheration over monetary aspects: inflation, exchange rates and adoption of euro. We conclude that the results of the monetary policy in the last years made the executives confident that the Romanian authorities could maintain the monetary stability after theadheration.

Monetary Policy Rules, Supply Shocks, and the Price-Level Elasticity of Aggregate Demand: A Graphical Examination.

Science.gov (United States)

Kyer, Ben L.; Maggs, Gary E.

1995-01-01

Utilizes two-dimensional price and output graphs to demonstrate the way that the price-level elasticity of aggregate demand affects alternative monetary policy rules designed to cope with random aggregate supply shocks. Includes graphs illustrating price-level, real Gross Domestic Product (GDP), nominal GDP, and nominal money supply targeting.…

MONEY: FROM STATISTICAL DEFINITION TO MONETARY POLICY FOR ADOPTING EURO.

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Zapodeanu Daniela

2011-07-01

Full Text Available Abstract: The evolution of monetary aggregates is closely related to the economic cycle, especially the evolution of GDP. The study aims to analyse the primary monetary aggregates (M1, the secondary (M2 and the tertiary (M3 in three Central and Eastern European countries: Romania, Bulgaria and Poland. The countries were chosen as follows: Romania and Bulgaria on the basis of the economic and geographical closeness and Poland as a benchmark for the first group. The data used are money supply, monetary aggregates: primary, secondary and tertiary, in Romania, Poland and Bulgaria, for the period January 2004 - March 2011, the monthly series are obtained from central bank websites, Poland's Central Bank and Bulgarian National Statistical Institute. The evolution of monetary aggregates of the three countries was compared with the Euro area and it was noticed a high degree of similarity between countries more developed economically as compared to less developed countries. From the viewpoint of optimum currency areas, it is necessary that the countries that adopt the Euro would respond symmetrically to external shocks and also have similar economic behaviour. Our study aims, in this respect, to analyse the components and the characteristics of the monetary aggregates, as well as the trends existing within them. The analysis of the correlation between monetary aggregates will show how the way in which the monetary mass and aggregates behave and which the sense of connection established between these countries is. We find that Romania and Bulgaria have a similar comportment, the correlation between these being the highest, we observe some differences between Romania and Bulgaria versus Poland.

A SHARIA RETURN AS AN ALTERNATIVE INSTRUMENT FOR MONETARY POLICY

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Ashief Hamam

2011-09-01

Full Text Available Rapid development in Islamic financial industry has not been supported by sharia monetary policy instruments. This study looks at the possibility of sharia returns as the instrument. Using both error correction model and vector error correction model to estimate the data from 2002(1 to 2010(12, this paper finds that sharia return has the same effect as the interest rate in the demand for money. The shock effect of sharia return on broad money supply, Gross Domestic Product, and Consumer Price Index is greater than that of interest rate. In addition, these three variables are more quickly become stable following the shock of sharia return. Keywords: Sharia return, islamic financial system, vector error correction modelJEL classification numbers: E52, G15

U.S. monetary shocks and global stock prices

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Laeven, L.; Tong, H.

2012-01-01

This paper studies how US monetary policy affects global stock prices. We find that global stock prices respond strongly to changes in US interest rates, with stock prices increasing (decreasing) following unexpected monetary loosening (tightening). This impact is more pronounced for sectors that

Global Implications of Self-Oriented National Monetary Rules

OpenAIRE

Maurice Obstfeld; Kenneth Rogoff

2003-01-01

It is well known that if international linkages are relatively small, the potential gains to international monetary policy coordination are typically quite limited. But what if goods and financial markets are tightly linked? Is it then problematic if countries unilaterally design their institutions for monetary stabilization? Are the stabilization gains from having separate currencies largely squandered in the absence of effective international monetary coordination? We argue that under p...

Budget, fiscal and monetary policy in Poland and demand for transport – forwarding – logistics industry services

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Ryszard Rolbiecki

2013-06-01

Full Text Available Macroeconomic policy of a country does not always have an effect on the demand for transport. The lack of a clear relation between the nature of macroeconomic policy and changes in demand for transport services is a consequence of the overall complexity of the economic system. It can also be a result of the lack of consistency between budget and monetary policy. Macroeconomic policy as a tool to control global demand only indirectly affects the changes in demand for transport. Transport activity is in fact determined by changes in the real economy, which directly influence the increase or decrease in demand for transport services.

Education, Endogenous Human Capital, and Monetary Economic Growth with MIU Approach

OpenAIRE

Zhang, Wei-Bin

2013-01-01

This study builds a monetary growth model with inflation policy and education. The model is a synthesis of the Uzawa-Lucas two-sector growth model and traditional monetary model with the money-in-utility (MIU) approach. We show how money, physical capital and human capital interact over time under exogenous inflation policy in a free market economy. The dynamics of the economy is described by three differential equations. We show that the monetary economic system has a saddle equilibrium poin...

Divisia and Simple Sum Monetary Aggregates: Any Empirical Relevance for Turkey?

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Polat Umurcan

2018-01-01

Full Text Available In consideration of channels through which monetary policy affects economic activity, the monetary aggregates have been mostly ignored by the monetary authorities instead of which shortrun interest rates have been given a priori role. These monetary aggregates are largely argued to fail in measuring the effectiveness of different monetary policy regimes in forecasting the macroeconomic fundamentals. Grounded on the “Barnett critique”, the formation of traditional simple-sum monetary aggregates assuming for perfect substitution among the components of the money supply is blamed for such a failure of money in explaining the real activity. Given increasing varieties of financial assets which have completely different “moneyness”, it is important to provide an alternative measure of the money supply. Hereby, the Divisia monetary aggregates which give different weights to different assets have arisen as an alternative approach. In this study, a Divisia index is constructed to test its predictive power on quantities and prices compared to its simple sum counterpart. Accordingly, a Divisia index is built-up for Turkish economy for the period 2006-2016 to see whether the utilization of the Divisia monetary aggregates in the conduct of monetary policy makes any difference compared to that of traditional simple sum money supply. Under different specifications, though the relative power of the Divisia aggregates in predicting quantity and price variables is found, still, it can be argued that theoretically well-rounded formation of the Divisia index is not that much empirically justified for the case of Turkey.

IMPLEMENTING FISCAL OR MONETARY POLICY IN TIME OF CRISIS? RUNNING GRANGER CAUSALITY TO TEST THE PHILLIPS CURVE IN SOME EURO ZONE COUNTRIES

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Nico Gianluigi

2014-12-01

Full Text Available This paper aims to provide empirical evidence about the theoretical relationship between inflation and unemployment in 9 European countries. Based on two major goals for economic policymakers namely, to keep both inflation and unemployment low, we use the ingredients of the Phillips curve to orient fiscal and monetary policies. These policies are prerogative for the achievement of a desirable combination of unemployment and inflation. More in detail, we attempt to address two basic issues. One strand of the study examines the size and sign of the impact of unemployment rate on percentage changes in inflation. In our preferred econometric model, we have made explicit the evidence according to which one unit increase (% in unemployment reduces inflation of roughly 0.73 percent, on average. Next, we turn to the question concerning the causal link between inflation and unemployment and we derive a political framework enables to orient European policymakers in the implementation of either fiscal or monetary policy. In this context, by means of the Granger causality test, we mainly find evidence of a directional causality which runs from inflation to unemployment in 4 out of 9 European countries under analysis. This result implies that political authorities of Austria, Belgium, Germany and Italy should implement monetary policy in order to achieve pre-established targets of unemployment and inflation. In the same context, a directional causality running from unemployment to inflation has been found in France and Cyprus suggesting that a reduction in the unemployment level can be achieved through controlling fiscal policy. However, succeeding in this goal may lead to an increasing demand for goods and services which, in turn, might cause a higher inflation than expected. Finally, while there is no statistical evidence of a causal link between unemployment and inflation in Finland and Greece, a bidirectional causality has been found in Estonia. This

Monetary Policy Rules, Learning and Stability: a Survey of the Recent Literature (In French)

OpenAIRE

Martin ZUMPE (GREThA UMR CNRS 5113)

2010-01-01

This paper presents the literature about econometric learning and its impact on the performances of monetary policy rules in the framework of the new canonical macroeconomic model. Rational expectations which are a building block of the original model can thus be replaced by expectations based on estimation algorithms. The permanent updating of these estimations can be interpreted as a learning proces of the model’s agents. This learning proces induces additional dynamics into the model. The ...

Endogeneity and Specialization in the European Monetary Union

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Bąk Henryk

2015-06-01

Full Text Available There has been a broad discussion about the viability of the European Monetary Union (EMU in its present and prospective confines. Generally, the EMU, consisting of 19 countries, is not considered an optimal currency area due to low labor market flexibility, autonomous fiscal policies, and structural differences among its members. Considerations about the endogeneity effect of currency unions lead to the question whether the EMU will become more viable over time. According to the endogenity hypothesis formulated by Frankel and Rose [1996, 2000], a common currency area may gradually become an optimal currency area at some future point (ex post unification, despite not having been an optimal currency area (OCA prior to (ex ante currency unification. Currency unification should bring about increased intra-industry trade and greater business cycle synchronization among member states. The most recent literature and analyses presented in this paper suggest that the endogenity effect in the EMU has been frail since its onset. While real convergence between EMU member states has not advanced, divergence in i.a. economic structures, national income and productivity levels is observed. The most important economic mechanisms reinforcing convergence and divergence among monetary union members are presented in this paper. Using recent data and related research results, we show a significant divergence in economic structures, business cycle synchronization and productivity levels among Eurozone members in the last decade. The Krugman sectorial dissimilarity index is applied to measure changes in industrial similarity among member countries and the Hodrick-Prescott filter to estimate business cycle synchronization in the EMU. These divergence tendencies have been strengthened by the global financial crisis of 2008 and persist, calling for reforms and new policies within the EMU.

Internal and external transmissions of monetary and fiscal policies in the EMU

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Aarle, B. van; Garretsen, J.H.; Moorsel, C. van

2001-01-01

With the introduction of Economic and Monetary Union (EMU), the sovereignty of national monetary institutions has been replaced by a common monetary institution, the European Central Bank (ECB) and national currencies have been replaced by a common currency, the euro. EMU therefore implies the loss

Monetary Channels in Brazil through the Lens of a Semi-Structural Model

OpenAIRE

André Minella; Nelson F. Souza-Sobrinho

2009-01-01

We develop and estimate a medium-size, semi-structural model for Brazil's economy during the inflation targeting period. The model captures key features of the economy, and allows us to investigate the transmission mechanisms of monetary policy. We decompose the monetary channels into household interest rate, firm interest rate, and exchange rate channels. We find that the household interest rate channel plays the most important role in explaining output dynamics after a monetary policy shock...

Fiscal Deficits, Monetary Reform and Inflation Stabilization in Romania.

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van Wijnbergen, S.J.G.; Budina, N.

2001-01-01

Investigates the consistency between inflation, monetary reform and fiscal policy in Romania. Offers a framework for the assessment of the fiscal and monetary interactions of Romanian economy; Shows impact of inflation on fiscal inconsistency measure; Considers importance of consolidating public

Financial Stability and Monetary Policy: Need for International Surveillance

OpenAIRE

Gary Hufbauer; Daniel Danxia Xie

2010-01-01

In this article, we propose a new monetary framework that defines a broader set of assets, De Facto Money (DFM), as the benchmark for improving financial stability. DFM is defined as traditional monetary aggregates plus other liquid assets such as stocks and bonds. Empirical evidence for the USA, other Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development countries, and a few emerging countries lends strong support for the connection between exceptionally fast growth of DFM and subsequent fi...

Factors Impacting Bank Net Interest Margin and the Role of Monetary Policy: Evidence from Turkey

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Muhammed Hasan Yılmaz

2017-10-01

Full Text Available In this study, we investigate factors affecting net interest margin (NIM of commercial banks in Turkey. Especially, our results highlight the relation between unconventional monetary policy shocks and bank margins. To this end, first, we conduct an identification analysis about which parameters of asymmetric interest corridor framework are important in explaining variations in NIM. Using industry-level data, we show that there exists a pass through from BIST interbank overnight repo/reverse repo market rate and weighted average cost of funding (WACF to bank loan and deposit rates. As a result of reduced-form Vector Autoregression (VAR analysis we find the existence of a transmission mechanism from BIST rate and WACF to commercial loan rate, consumer loan rate and deposit rate. Same pass through to loan and deposit rates is also shown in individual bank level with the Panel Vector Autoregression (Panel VAR analysis in the case of 16 commercial banks in Turkey during the period 2011Q1-2016Q1. After the identification analysis, we examine the relationship between NIM and policy rates through System Generalized Method of Moments (GMM techniques by controlling bank specific, industry related and macroeconomic factors. We find that a change in the monetary policy rate has significant and positive impact on NIM. Among bank-specific factors, equity ratio and operating expenses are found to be significantly affecting NIM during the sample period. Our empirical findings also stress the significance of lag values of NIM. Estimations conducted with standardized variables indicate that economic significance of lag values and bank specific variables are larger than that of policy.

Effects of Fiscal Policy and Monetary Policy on the Stock Market in Poland

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Yu Hsing

2013-10-01

Full Text Available The focus of this paper is to examine potential impacts of fiscal and monetary policies on stock market performance in Poland. Applying the GARCH model and based on a sample during 1999.Q2 to 2012.Q4, this paper finds that Poland’s stock market index is not affected by the ratio of government deficits or debt to GDP and is negatively influenced by the money market rate. The stock index and the ratio of M3 to GDP show a quadratic relationship with a critical value of 46.03%, suggesting that they have a positive relationship if the M3/GDP ratio is less than 46.03% and a negative relationship if the M3/GDP ratio is greater than 46.03%. Furthermore, Poland’s stock index is positively associated with industrial production and stock market performance in Germany and the U.S. and negatively affected by the nominal effective exchange rate and the inflation rate.

Monetary aggregate targeting and inflation in Nigeria | Adedoyin ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Abstract. In a capitalist economy, monetary aggregate policy instruments are normally employed by monetary authorities. ... To the financial analysts, if the direction of the volume of money supply into a given economy and the velocity and output of good and services remain constant, there is bound to be an impact on prices.

On the nexus of monetary policy and financial stability: Is the financial system more resilient?

OpenAIRE

Mora, Patricia Palhau; Januska, Michael

2016-01-01

Monetary policy and financial stability are closely intertwined, and the resilience of the financial system carries weight in this relationship. This paper explores whether the financial system is more resilient as a result of the G20's post-crisis agenda for financial regulatory reform. It summarizes the agenda's key measures and implementation schedules, both internationally and in Canada, reviews the effectiveness of the reform measures in preventing and addressing financial imbalances, an...

CONSIDERATIONS REGARDING MONETARY AND FISCAL EXIT STRATEGIES FROM THE CRISIS

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MARIA VASILESCU

2010-03-01

Full Text Available The recent financial crisis and all unusual monetary and fiscal policy reactions have stressed the importance to be given to understand macroeconomic consequences of policy interventions and their interactions. This profound crisis has led to both nonstandard policy actions of various authorities around the globe, but it has also revealed limitations of traditional modeling tools to guide policymakers’ actions until nowadays. The delicate state of governments’ accounts in many countries is a consequence of the strong fiscal policy reactions, giving rise to risks of a potential fiscal crisis. Issues regarding monetary and fiscal policy decisions interactions are, therefore, the key element for successful exit strategies from the crisis.

Borrowing constraints, multiple equilibria and monetary policy

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Assenza, T.

2007-01-01

The appealing feature of Kiyotaki and Moore's Financial Accelerator model (Kiyotaki and Moore, 1997, 2002) is the linkage of asset price changes and borrowing constraints. This framework therefore is the natural vehicle to explore the net worth channel of the monetary transmission mechanism. In the

Monetary policy and the causality between inflation and money supply in Indonesia

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Gatot Sasongko

2018-05-01

Full Text Available Conceptually and empirically, inflation volatility in Indonesia is a monetary and fiscal phenomenon. This study focuses on the macroeconomic policy and public policy especially causality between two variables namely inflation and money supply in Indonesia. This study uses Indonesian macroeconomic data of inflation and money supply from the Bank of Indonesia publication during 2007.1–2017.7. Inflation is measured by the consumer price index, reflects the annual percentage change in costs of acquiring a basket of goods and services to the average consumers that may change at specified intervals. Meanwhile, money supply is measured by the currency, demand deposits, time deposits, and saving deposits. Methodically, this study uses the Granger Causality model to determine the causality between inflation and money supply. The results show that there is a one-way causality between inflation and money supply in Indonesia. These findings imply that money supply causes inflation, but not vice versa. This condition implies that the role of Indonesian Government and Bank of Indonesia were very crucial in managing and controlling macroeconomic policy and public policy. Then, analysis of money supply and inflation also related to impacting factors such as money laundering, role of banks, taxation, tax evasion, and corruption.

Monetary union without fiscal coordination may discipline policymakers

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Beetsma, R.M.W.J.; Bovenberg, A.L.

1995-01-01

We show that, with benevolent policymakers and fiscal leadership, monetary unification reduces inflation, taxes and public spending. These disciplining effects of a monetary union, which rise with the number of fiscal players in the union, are likely to raise welfare. Joining an optimally designed

Monetary Shocks in Models with Inattentive Producers.

Science.gov (United States)

Alvarez, Fernando E; Lippi, Francesco; Paciello, Luigi

2016-04-01

We study models where prices respond slowly to shocks because firms are rationally inattentive. Producers must pay a cost to observe the determinants of the current profit maximizing price, and hence observe them infrequently. To generate large real effects of monetary shocks in such a model the time between observations must be long and/or highly volatile. Previous work on rational inattentiveness has allowed for observation intervals that are either constant-but-long ( e.g . Caballero, 1989 or Reis, 2006) or volatile-but-short ( e.g . Reis's, 2006 example where observation costs are negligible), but not both. In these models, the real effects of monetary policy are small for realistic values of the duration between observations. We show that non-negligible observation costs produce both of these effects: intervals between observations are infrequent and volatile. This generates large real effects of monetary policy for realistic values of the average time between observations.

Mutations at the Level of the Measures Adopted by Monetary Authorities

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Marius Constantin APOSTOAIE

2011-11-01

Full Text Available Following the intensification of the international financial crisis in autumn 2008 the functioning of the financial system was seriously hindered. Central banks around the world responded firmly by lowering their key interest rates to historically low levels. As financial conditions didn’t improve as hoped and the real economy was still unstable, revealing therefore the limits of mainstream monetary policy, many monetary authorities employed several unconventional measures. This study documents two important approaches of classifying “unorthodox” monetary policies and reviews several measures undertook by central banks highlighting the impact and some of the possible risks to the contemporary economy.

Enhanced Debt Management: solving the eurozone crisis by linking debt management with fiscal and monetary policy

OpenAIRE

Werner, Richard A.

2014-01-01

Unconventional approaches to suit unusual circumstances have become acceptable in monetary policy, a formerly highly conservative discipline. In this paper it is argued that unconventional approaches should also be considered in sovereign debt management, in order to contribute to resolving the eurozone sovereign debt crisis. First, the Troika crisis lending to indebted sovereign borrowers in the eurozone is reviewed and compared with standard IMF post-crisis lending. The main difference and ...

Optimal patent policies: A survey

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Poulsen, Odile

2002-01-01

This paper surveys some of the patent literature, in particular, it focuses on optimal patent policies. We compare two situations. The first where the government only has a single policy tool to design the optimal patent policy, namely the optimal patent length. In the second situation......, the government uses two policy tools, the optimal breadth and length. We show that theoretical models give very different answers to what is the optimal patent policy. In particular, we show that the optimal patent policy depends among othet things on the price elasticity of demand, the intersectoral elasticity...... of research outputs as well as the degree of compettition in the R&D sector. The actual law on intellectual property, which advocates a unique patent length of 20 years is in general not supported by theoretical models....

The Effect of Monetary Policy on Exchange Rates during Currency Crises; The Role of Debt, Institutions and Financial Openness

NARCIS (Netherlands)

S.C.W. Eijffinger (Sylvester); B. Goderis

2007-01-01

textabstractThis paper examines the effect of monetary policy on the exchange rate during currency crises. Using data for a number of crisis episodes between 1986 and 2004, we find strong evidence that raising the interest rate: (i) has larger adverse balance sheet effects and is therefore less

The Effect of Monetary Policy on Exchange Rates During Currency Crises : The Role of Debt, Institutions and Financial Openness

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Eijffinger, S.C.W.; Goderis, B.V.G.

2007-01-01

This paper examines the effect of monetary policy on the exchange rate during currency crises. Using data for a number of crisis episodes between 1986 and 2004, we find strong evidence that raising the interest rate: (i) has larger adverse balance sheet effects and is therefore less effective in

Using wavelets to decompose the time frequency effects of monetary policy

Science.gov (United States)

Aguiar-Conraria, Luís; Azevedo, Nuno; Soares, Maria Joana

2008-05-01

Central banks have different objectives in the short and long run. Governments operate simultaneously at different timescales. Many economic processes are the result of the actions of several agents, who have different term objectives. Therefore, a macroeconomic time series is a combination of components operating on different frequencies. Several questions about economic time series are connected to the understanding of the behavior of key variables at different frequencies over time, but this type of information is difficult to uncover using pure time-domain or pure frequency-domain methods. To our knowledge, for the first time in an economic setup, we use cross-wavelet tools to show that the relation between monetary policy variables and macroeconomic variables has changed and evolved with time. These changes are not homogeneous across the different frequencies.

Mutations at the Level of the Measures Adopted by Monetary Authorities

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Stefan MATEI

2012-08-01

Full Text Available Following the intensification of the international financial crisis in autumn 2008, the functioning of the financial system was seriously hindered. Central banks around the world responded firmly by lowering their key interest rates to historically low levels. As financial conditions did not improve as hoped and the real economy was still unstable, revealing therefore the limits of mainstream monetary policy, many monetary authorities employed several unconventional measures. The scope of this paper is to investigate two important approaches of classifying “unorthodox” monetary policies and review several measures undertook by central banks, highlighting the impact and some of the possible risks to the contemporary economy.

Estimation of weights for the Monetary Conditions Index in Poland

OpenAIRE

Andrzej Toroj

2008-01-01

In this paper, we follow the econometric approach to assess relative importance of real interest rate and real exchange rate for the monetary conditions in Poland, quantified as weights for Monetary Conditions Index (MCI). We consider both single- and multiple-equation specifications proposed in the literature with an application to Poland. Although MCI is nowadays broadly considered a rather obsolete indicator in monetary policy conduct, we argue that the econometric framework used for this ...

Central bank policy under significant balance-of-payment shocks and structural shifts

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Andrey Sinyakov

2016-09-01

Full Text Available In this paper, we analyze a number of monetary and FX policy alternatives using the model of a small open oil-exporting economy hit by severe balance-of-payment shocks, such as those that simultaneously affected the Russian economy in 2014–2015. For our purposes, we modify Romer's (2013 IS-MP general equilibrium model by adding a structure similar to the Russian economy (tradables and oil vs. non-tradables. In the model, we consider an optimal policy mix that includes a floating exchange rate, FX liquidity provision by a central bank and temporary tightening of monetary policy. The flexible exchange rate works as a shock absorber, helping restore aggregate demand and domestic production. If inflation expectations are not anchored, contractionary monetary policy helps to stabilize them. Financial stability risks are addressed by lending FX liquidity to the banking sector.

Monetary transmission: what do we know and how can we use it?

OpenAIRE

J.M. BERK

1998-01-01

The existence of a considerable and varying time lag between the actions by the central bank in adjusting its policy instruments and the effects on the respective target variable is widely acknowledged. As a result, the monetary policy maker needs to take a forward-looking approach in decision-making. A survey is undertaken of the possible channels of monetary transmission, and the problems faced by the imperfect knowledge of the policy maker about the transmission mechanism.

BAYESIAN APPROACH TO THE ANALYSIS OF MONETARY POLICY IMPACT ON RUSSIAN MACROECONOMICS INDICATORS

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Sheveleva O. A.

2017-12-01

Full Text Available In this paper the interaction between the production macroeconomic indicators of the Russian economy and MIBOR (the main operational benchmark of the Bank of Russia, as well as the relationship between the inflation indicators and money supply were investigated with Bayesian approach. Conjugate Normal Inverse Wishart Prior was used. According to the study, tough monetary policy has a deterrent effect on the Russian economy. The growth of the money market rate causes a reduction in investments and output in the main sectors of the economy, as well as a drop in the income of the population with an increase in the unemployment rate.

Dual Effects of Monetary Policy on Corporate Investment%货币政策影响公司投资的双重效应研究

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

张西征; 刘志远; 王静

2012-01-01

In this paper, we analyze dual effects of monetary policy on corporate investment through micro level. We distinct demand effect and supply effect of monetary policy on corporate investment by panel vector auto-regression techniques ( PVAR) and the orthogonal impulse response functions, using panel data of listed companies to test hypothesized model. The results show that, monetary policy has both demand effect and supply effect on corporate investment; monetary policy has different effect on corporate's investment under different financing constraints. That is, the demand effect of lower financing constraints firms is stronger than that of higher financing constraints firms, and the supply effect of higher financing constraints firms is stronger than that of lower financing constraints firms. This research provides macro monetary policy theory with micro economic foundation.%从微观层面分析货币政策影响公司投资的双重效应,采用面板向量自回归技术,通过正交化的脉冲响应函数,区分货币政策影响公司投资的需求效应和供给效应,使用中国上市公司面板数据进行实证检验.研究结果表明,货币政策对公司投资的影响既存在需求效应又存在供给效应;对不同融资约束公司,货币政策影响其投资的双重效应存在非对称性,货币政策对低融资约束公司投资影响的需求效应强于高融资约束公司,对高融资约束公司投资影响的供给效应强于低融资约束公司.研究结果为宏观货币政策理论提供微观经济基础的支持.

The financial crisis and global health: the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) policy response.

Science.gov (United States)

Ruckert, Arne; Labonté, Ronald

2013-09-01

In this article, we interrogate the policy response of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to the global financial crisis, and discuss the likely global health implications, especially in low-income countries. In doing so, we ask if the IMF has meaningfully loosened its fiscal deficit targets in light of the economic challenges posed by the financial crisis and adjusted its macro-economic policy advice to this new reality; or has the rhetoric of counter-cyclical spending failed to translate into additional fiscal space for IMF loan-recipient countries, with negative health consequences? To answer these questions, we assess several post-crisis IMF lending agreements with countries requiring financial assistance, and draw upon recent academic studies and civil society reports examining policy conditionalities still being prescribed by the IMF. We also reference recent studies examining the health impacts of these conditionalities. We demonstrate that while the IMF has been somewhat more flexible in its crisis response than in previous episodes of financial upheaval, there has been no meaningful rethinking in the application of dominant neoliberal macro-economic policies. After showing some flexibility in the initial crisis response, the IMF is pushing for excessive contraction in most low and middle-income countries. We conclude that there remains a wide gap between the rhetoric and the reality of the IMF's policy and programming advice, with negative implications for global health.

Stabilization Policy and the Costs of Dollarization

OpenAIRE

Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe; Martin Uribe

2000-01-01

This paper compares the welfare costs of business cycles in a dollarized economy to those arising in economies with different monetary arrangements. The alternative monetary policy regimes studied belong to three broad families: devaluation rate rules, inflation targeting, and money growth rate rules. The analysis is conducted within an optimizing model of a small open economy with sticky prices. The model is calibrated to the Mexican economy and is driven by three external shocks: terms of t...

Monetary policy efficiency in the euro zone: some empirical evidence of money demand stability and endogeneity

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kapounek, S.

2010-12-01

Full Text Available The primary target of most central banks in developed economies is to maintain price stability. When there is no threat to the fulfilment of the primary target, the central bank focuses on its secondary target which is defined as support of a sustainable economic growth and full employment. Even though, a substantial part of the discussions regarding the targets of the central banks focus on price stability, the real target is to support a sustainable economic growth, especially to stabilize the fluctuation in the economic activity.This paper focuses on the current problems of monetary policy implementation in the Eurozone. Firstly, the author focus on the money demand function estimation and its stability. Another problem lies in the Postkeynesians´ assumptions of money endogeneity. Although central banks may have certain control over the money supply, they cannot fix the stock of money in a country. Different trends in monetary aggregates fluctuation contribute to reject the money exogeneity hypothesis.

Fiscal and monetary policies in light of the increasing debt service Las políticas fiscal y monetaria a la luz del creciente servicio de la deuda

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)