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Sample records for optimal hypothesis testing

  1. Neuroadaptive Bayesian Optimization and Hypothesis Testing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lorenz, Romy; Hampshire, Adam; Leech, Robert

    2017-03-01

    Cognitive neuroscientists are often interested in broad research questions, yet use overly narrow experimental designs by considering only a small subset of possible experimental conditions. This limits the generalizability and reproducibility of many research findings. Here, we propose an alternative approach that resolves these problems by taking advantage of recent developments in real-time data analysis and machine learning. Neuroadaptive Bayesian optimization is a powerful strategy to efficiently explore more experimental conditions than is currently possible with standard methodology. We argue that such an approach could broaden the hypotheses considered in cognitive science, improving the generalizability of findings. In addition, Bayesian optimization can be combined with preregistration to cover exploration, mitigating researcher bias more broadly and improving reproducibility.

  2. Proper image subtraction - optimal transient detection, photometry and hypothesis testing

    CERN Document Server

    Zackay, Barak; Gal-Yam, Avishay

    2016-01-01

    Transient detection and flux measurement via image subtraction stand at the base of time domain astronomy. Due to the varying seeing conditions, the image subtraction process is non-trivial, and existing solutions suffer from a variety of problems. Starting from basic statistical principles, we develop the optimal statistic for transient detection, flux measurement and any image-difference hypothesis testing. We derive a closed-form statistic that: (i) Is mathematically proven to be the optimal transient detection statistic in the limit of background-dominated noise; (ii) Is numerically stable; (iii) For accurately registered, adequately sampled images, does not leave subtraction or deconvolution artifacts; (iv) Allows automatic transient detection to the theoretical sensitivity limit by providing credible detection significance; (v) Has uncorrelated white noise; (vi) Is a sufficient statistic for any further statistical test on the difference image, and in particular, allows to distinguish particle hits and ...

  3. The optimal design for hypothesis test and its application in genetic linkage analysis

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    XIE; Minyu(谢民育); LI; Zhaohai(李照海)

    2003-01-01

    This paper proposes a class of linear models with inequable variance, based on background in genetic linkage analysis, and considers the optimal design problem for the hypothesis test of the parameters in such models. To assess a design for the test, a frame of decision theory is established. Under this frame, an admissible minimax design is obtained. It is shown to be not only admissible and minimax in genetic linkage analysis, but best among a reasonable subclass of designs. The power of the test in genetic linkage analysis is substantially improved by using this optimal design.

  4. A test of the herbivore optimization hypothesis using muskoxen and a graminoid meadow plant community

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David L. Smith

    1996-01-01

    Full Text Available A prediction from the herbivore optimization hypothesis is that grazing by herbivores at moderate intensities will increase net above-ground primary productivity more than at lower or higher intensities. I tested this hypothesis in an area of high muskox {Ovibos moschatus density on north-central Banks Island, Northwest Territories, Canada (73°50'N, 119°53'W. Plots (1 m2 in graminoid meadows dominated by cottongrass (Eriophorum triste were either clipped, exposed to muskoxen, protected for part of one growing season, or permanently protected. This resulted in the removal of 22-44%, 10-39%, 0-39% or 0%, respectively, of shoot tissue during each growing season. Contrary to the predictions of the herbivore optimization hypothesis, productivity did not increase across this range of tissue removal. Productivity of plants clipped at 1.5 cm above ground once or twice per growing season, declined by 60+/-5% in 64% of the tests. The productivity of plants grazed by muskoxen declined by 56+/-7% in 25% of the tests. No significant change in productivity was observed in 36% and 75% of the tests in clipped and grazed treatments, respecrively. Clipping and grazing reduced below-ground standing crop except where removals were small. Grazing and clipping did not stimulate productivity of north-central Banks Island graminoid meadows.

  5. Robust Adaptive Rate-Optimal Testing for the White Noise Hypothesis

    CERN Document Server

    Guay, Alain; Lazarova, Stepana

    2011-01-01

    A new test is proposed for the weak white noise null hypothesis. The test is based on an automatic choice of the order for a Box-Pierce or Hong test statistic. The simplest version of the test uses Lobato (2001) or Kuan and Lee (2006) HAC critical values but the procedure is flexible enough to improve the detection properties of any prescribed test. This can allow for instance to calibrate the test for optimal detection of specific alternatives as in Delgado and Velasco (2010a). The data-driven order choice is tailored to give a test which achieves adaptive rate-optimality against several classes of alternatives, namely (i) alternatives with a large enough number of autocorrelation coefficients converging to 0 faster than the parametric rate; (ii) alternatives with a "peak and valley" spectral density function. A simulation experiment leads to prefer the Box-Pierce version of the test, both under the null and the alternative. An application to daily exchange rate returns illustrates the usefulness of the prop...

  6. Proper Image Subtraction—Optimal Transient Detection, Photometry, and Hypothesis Testing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zackay, Barak; Ofek, Eran O.; Gal-Yam, Avishay

    2016-10-01

    Transient detection and flux measurement via image subtraction stand at the base of time domain astronomy. Due to the varying seeing conditions, the image subtraction process is non-trivial, and existing solutions suffer from a variety of problems. Starting from basic statistical principles, we develop the optimal statistic for transient detection, flux measurement, and any image-difference hypothesis testing. We derive a closed-form statistic that: (1) is mathematically proven to be the optimal transient detection statistic in the limit of background-dominated noise, (2) is numerically stable, (3) for accurately registered, adequately sampled images, does not leave subtraction or deconvolution artifacts, (4) allows automatic transient detection to the theoretical sensitivity limit by providing credible detection significance, (5) has uncorrelated white noise, (6) is a sufficient statistic for any further statistical test on the difference image, and, in particular, allows us to distinguish particle hits and other image artifacts from real transients, (7) is symmetric to the exchange of the new and reference images, (8) is at least an order of magnitude faster to compute than some popular methods, and (9) is straightforward to implement. Furthermore, we present extensions of this method that make it resilient to registration errors, color-refraction errors, and any noise source that can be modeled. In addition, we show that the optimal way to prepare a reference image is the proper image coaddition presented in Zackay & Ofek. We demonstrate this method on simulated data and real observations from the PTF data release 2. We provide an implementation of this algorithm in MATLAB and Python.

  7. F-Ratio Test and Hypothesis Weighting: A Methodology to Optimize Feature Vector Size

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. M. Dünki

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Reducing a feature vector to an optimized dimensionality is a common problem in biomedical signal analysis. This analysis retrieves the characteristics of the time series and its associated measures with an adequate methodology followed by an appropriate statistical assessment of these measures (e.g., spectral power or fractal dimension. As a step towards such a statistical assessment, we present a data resampling approach. The techniques allow estimating σ2(F, that is, the variance of an F-value from variance analysis. Three test statistics are derived from the so-called F-ratio σ2(F/F2. A Bayesian formalism assigns weights to hypotheses and their corresponding measures considered (hypothesis weighting. This leads to complete, partial, or noninclusion of these measures into an optimized feature vector. We thus distinguished the EEG of healthy probands from the EEG of patients diagnosed as schizophrenic. A reliable discriminance performance of 81% based on Taken's χ, α-, and δ-power was found.

  8. Active SAmpling Protocol (ASAP) to Optimize Individual Neurocognitive Hypothesis Testing: A BCI-Inspired Dynamic Experimental Design.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanchez, Gaëtan; Lecaignard, Françoise; Otman, Anatole; Maby, Emmanuel; Mattout, Jérémie

    2016-01-01

    The relatively young field of Brain-Computer Interfaces has promoted the use of electrophysiology and neuroimaging in real-time. In the meantime, cognitive neuroscience studies, which make extensive use of functional exploration techniques, have evolved toward model-based experiments and fine hypothesis testing protocols. Although these two developments are mostly unrelated, we argue that, brought together, they may trigger an important shift in the way experimental paradigms are being designed, which should prove fruitful to both endeavors. This change simply consists in using real-time neuroimaging in order to optimize advanced neurocognitive hypothesis testing. We refer to this new approach as the instantiation of an Active SAmpling Protocol (ASAP). As opposed to classical (static) experimental protocols, ASAP implements online model comparison, enabling the optimization of design parameters (e.g., stimuli) during the course of data acquisition. This follows the well-known principle of sequential hypothesis testing. What is radically new, however, is our ability to perform online processing of the huge amount of complex data that brain imaging techniques provide. This is all the more relevant at a time when physiological and psychological processes are beginning to be approached using more realistic, generative models which may be difficult to tease apart empirically. Based upon Bayesian inference, ASAP proposes a generic and principled way to optimize experimental design adaptively. In this perspective paper, we summarize the main steps in ASAP. Using synthetic data we illustrate its superiority in selecting the right perceptual model compared to a classical design. Finally, we briefly discuss its future potential for basic and clinical neuroscience as well as some remaining challenges.

  9. Active Sequential Hypothesis Testing

    CERN Document Server

    Naghshvar, Mohammad

    2012-01-01

    Consider a decision maker who is responsible to dynamically collect observations so as to enhance his information in a speedy manner about an underlying phenomena of interest while accounting for the penalty of wrong declaration. The special cases of the problem are shown to be that of variable-length coding with feedback and noisy dynamic search. Due to the sequential nature of the problem, the decision maker relies on his current information state to adaptively select the most "informative" sensing action among the available ones. In this paper, using results in dynamic programming, a lower bound for the optimal total cost is established. Moreover, upper bounds are obtained via an analysis of heuristic policies for dynamic selection of actions. It is shown that the proposed heuristics achieve asymptotic optimality in many practically relevant problems including the problems of variable-length coding with feedback and noisy dynamic search; where asymptotic optimality implies that the relative difference betw...

  10. Does moderate iron deficiency protect against childhood illness? A test of the optimal iron hypothesis in Tanzania.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hadley, Craig; DeCaro, Jason A

    2015-08-01

    To test the hypothesis that moderate iron deficiency among children is associated with lower likelihood of infection. We use data from a population representative cross sectional study of 1164 Tanzanian children aged 6-59 months from the Tanzania Demographic and Health Survey. Respondents' iron levels were assessed through serum transferrin receptor (sTfR) and anemia was assessed using hemoglobin. C-reactive protein (CRP) was used as a marker of infection. Nearly 25% of the children were categorized as normal (iron replete, non-anemic); 45% were IDE (low iron, non-anemic), 24% were classified as IDA (low iron, anemic), and 69 children (5.9%) were anemic but had no evidence of iron deficiency. IDE was not associated with a lower likelihood of elevated CRP compared to iron replete, non-anemic children; 45% of normal children had elevated CRP compared to 51% of IDE children (P = 0.10). IDA, by contrast, was associated with a higher likelihood of elevated CRP (68%, P iron hypothesis as conventionally formulated. The fact that we did not find an effect where some other studies have may be due to differences in study design, sample (e.g., age), or the baseline pathogenic ecology. Alternatively, it may be more fruitful to investigate iron regulation as an allostatic system that responds to infections adaptively, rather than to expect an optimal pre-infection value. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  11. The venom optimization hypothesis revisited.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morgenstern, David; King, Glenn F

    2013-03-01

    Animal venoms are complex chemical mixtures that typically contain hundreds of proteins and non-proteinaceous compounds, resulting in a potent weapon for prey immobilization and predator deterrence. However, because venoms are protein-rich, they come with a high metabolic price tag. The metabolic cost of venom is sufficiently high to result in secondary loss of venom whenever its use becomes non-essential to survival of the animal. The high metabolic cost of venom leads to the prediction that venomous animals may have evolved strategies for minimizing venom expenditure. Indeed, various behaviors have been identified that appear consistent with frugality of venom use. This has led to formulation of the "venom optimization hypothesis" (Wigger et al. (2002) Toxicon 40, 749-752), also known as "venom metering", which postulates that venom is metabolically expensive and therefore used frugally through behavioral control. Here, we review the available data concerning economy of venom use by animals with either ancient or more recently evolved venom systems. We conclude that the convergent nature of the evidence in multiple taxa strongly suggests the existence of evolutionary pressures favoring frugal use of venom. However, there remains an unresolved dichotomy between this economy of venom use and the lavish biochemical complexity of venom, which includes a high degree of functional redundancy. We discuss the evidence for biochemical optimization of venom as a means of resolving this conundrum. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Counselor Hypothesis-Testing Strategies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strohmer, Douglas C.; Newman, Lisa J.

    1983-01-01

    Reports two experiments relevant to the questioning strategies counselors use in testing their hypotheses about clients. Results supported the idea that counselors are able to take a tentative hypothesis about a client and test its accuracy against additional independent, unbiased observations of the client. (LLL)

  13. Robust and distributed hypothesis testing

    CERN Document Server

    Gül, Gökhan

    2017-01-01

    This book generalizes and extends the available theory in robust and decentralized hypothesis testing. In particular, it presents a robust test for modeling errors which is independent from the assumptions that a sufficiently large number of samples is available, and that the distance is the KL-divergence. Here, the distance can be chosen from a much general model, which includes the KL-divergence as a very special case. This is then extended by various means. A minimax robust test that is robust against both outliers as well as modeling errors is presented. Minimax robustness properties of the given tests are also explicitly proven for fixed sample size and sequential probability ratio tests. The theory of robust detection is extended to robust estimation and the theory of robust distributed detection is extended to classes of distributions, which are not necessarily stochastically bounded. It is shown that the quantization functions for the decision rules can also be chosen as non-monotone. Finally, the boo...

  14. Robust estimation and hypothesis testing

    CERN Document Server

    Tiku, Moti L

    2004-01-01

    In statistical theory and practice, a certain distribution is usually assumed and then optimal solutions sought. Since deviations from an assumed distribution are very common, one cannot feel comfortable with assuming a particular distribution and believing it to be exactly correct. That brings the robustness issue in focus. In this book, we have given statistical procedures which are robust to plausible deviations from an assumed mode. The method of modified maximum likelihood estimation is used in formulating these procedures. The modified maximum likelihood estimators are explicit functions of sample observations and are easy to compute. They are asymptotically fully efficient and are as efficient as the maximum likelihood estimators for small sample sizes. The maximum likelihood estimators have computational problems and are, therefore, elusive. A broad range of topics are covered in this book. Solutions are given which are easy to implement and are efficient. The solutions are also robust to data anomali...

  15. Hypothesis testing in hydrology: Theory and practice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirchner, James; Pfister, Laurent

    2017-04-01

    Well-posed hypothesis tests have spurred major advances in hydrological theory. However, a random sample of recent research papers suggests that in hydrology, as in other fields, hypothesis formulation and testing rarely correspond to the idealized model of the scientific method. Practices such as "p-hacking" or "HARKing" (Hypothesizing After the Results are Known) are major obstacles to more rigorous hypothesis testing in hydrology, along with the well-known problem of confirmation bias - the tendency to value and trust confirmations more than refutations - among both researchers and reviewers. Hypothesis testing is not the only recipe for scientific progress, however: exploratory research, driven by innovations in measurement and observation, has also underlain many key advances. Further improvements in observation and measurement will be vital to both exploratory research and hypothesis testing, and thus to advancing the science of hydrology.

  16. Minimax hypothesis testing for curve registration

    CERN Document Server

    Collier, Olivier

    2011-01-01

    This paper is concerned with the problem of goodness-of-fit for curve registration, and more precisely for the shifted curve model, whose application field reaches from computer vision and road traffic prediction to medicine. We give bounds for the asymptotic minimax separation rate, when the functions in the alternative lie in Sobolev balls and the separation from the null hypothesis is measured by the l2-norm. We use the generalized likelihood ratio to build a nonadaptive procedure depending on a tuning parameter, which we choose in an optimal way according to the smoothness of the ambient space. Then, a Bonferroni procedure is applied to give an adaptive test over a range of Sobolev balls. Both achieve the asymptotic minimax separation rates, up to possible logarithmic factors.

  17. Testing the stress shadow hypothesis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Felzer, Karen R.; Brodsky, Emily E.

    2005-05-01

    A fundamental question in earthquake physics is whether aftershocks are predominantly triggered by static stress changes (permanent stress changes associated with fault displacement) or dynamic stresses (temporary stress changes associated with earthquake shaking). Both classes of models provide plausible explanations for earthquake triggering of aftershocks, but only the static stress model predicts stress shadows, or regions in which activity is decreased by a nearby earthquake. To test for whether a main shock has produced a stress shadow, we calculate time ratios, defined as the ratio of the time between the main shock and the first earthquake to follow it and the time between the last earthquake to precede the main shock and the first earthquake to follow it. A single value of the time ratio is calculated for each 10 × 10 km bin within 1.5 fault lengths of the main shock epicenter. Large values of the time ratio indicate a long wait for the first earthquake to follow the main shock and thus a potential stress shadow, whereas small values indicate the presence of aftershocks. Simulations indicate that the time ratio test should have sufficient sensitivity to detect stress shadows if they are produced in accordance with the rate and state friction model. We evaluate the 1989 MW 7.0 Loma Prieta, 1992 MW 7.3 Landers, 1994 MW 6.7 Northridge, and 1999 MW 7.1 Hector Mine main shocks. For each main shock, there is a pronounced concentration of small time ratios, indicating the presence of aftershocks, but the number of large time ratios is less than at other times in the catalog. This suggests that stress shadows are not present. By comparing our results to simulations we estimate that we can be at least 98% confident that the Loma Prieta and Landers main shocks did not produce stress shadows and 91% and 84% confident that stress shadows were not generated by the Hector Mine and Northridge main shocks, respectively. We also investigate the long hypothesized existence

  18. Knowledge dimensions in hypothesis test problems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krishnan, Saras; Idris, Noraini

    2012-05-01

    The reformation in statistics education over the past two decades has predominantly shifted the focus of statistical teaching and learning from procedural understanding to conceptual understanding. The emphasis of procedural understanding is on the formulas and calculation procedures. Meanwhile, conceptual understanding emphasizes students knowing why they are using a particular formula or executing a specific procedure. In addition, the Revised Bloom's Taxonomy offers a twodimensional framework to describe learning objectives comprising of the six revised cognition levels of original Bloom's taxonomy and four knowledge dimensions. Depending on the level of complexities, the four knowledge dimensions essentially distinguish basic understanding from the more connected understanding. This study identifiesthe factual, procedural and conceptual knowledgedimensions in hypothesis test problems. Hypothesis test being an important tool in making inferences about a population from sample informationis taught in many introductory statistics courses. However, researchers find that students in these courses still have difficulty in understanding the underlying concepts of hypothesis test. Past studies also show that even though students can perform the hypothesis testing procedure, they may not understand the rationale of executing these steps or know how to apply them in novel contexts. Besides knowing the procedural steps in conducting a hypothesis test, students must have fundamental statistical knowledge and deep understanding of the underlying inferential concepts such as sampling distribution and central limit theorem. By identifying the knowledge dimensions of hypothesis test problems in this study, suitable instructional and assessment strategies can be developed in future to enhance students' learning of hypothesis test as a valuable inferential tool.

  19. Error probabilities in default Bayesian hypothesis testing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gu, Xin; Hoijtink, Herbert; Mulder, J,

    2016-01-01

    This paper investigates the classical type I and type II error probabilities of default Bayes factors for a Bayesian t test. Default Bayes factors quantify the relative evidence between the null hypothesis and the unrestricted alternative hypothesis without needing to specify prior distributions for

  20. Statistical reasoning in clinical trials: hypothesis testing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelen, G D; Brown, C G; Ashton, J

    1988-01-01

    Hypothesis testing is based on certain statistical and mathematical principles that allow investigators to evaluate data by making decisions based on the probability or implausibility of observing the results obtained. However, classic hypothesis testing has its limitations, and probabilities mathematically calculated are inextricably linked to sample size. Furthermore, the meaning of the p value frequently is misconstrued as indicating that the findings are also of clinical significance. Finally, hypothesis testing allows for four possible outcomes, two of which are errors that can lead to erroneous adoption of certain hypotheses: 1. The null hypothesis is rejected when, in fact, it is false. 2. The null hypothesis is rejected when, in fact, it is true (type I or alpha error). 3. The null hypothesis is conceded when, in fact, it is true. 4. The null hypothesis is conceded when, in fact, it is false (type II or beta error). The implications of these errors, their relation to sample size, the interpretation of negative trials, and strategies related to the planning of clinical trials will be explored in a future article in this journal.

  1. Statistical hypothesis testing with SAS and R

    CERN Document Server

    Taeger, Dirk

    2014-01-01

    A comprehensive guide to statistical hypothesis testing with examples in SAS and R When analyzing datasets the following questions often arise:Is there a short hand procedure for a statistical test available in SAS or R?If so, how do I use it?If not, how do I program the test myself? This book answers these questions and provides an overview of the most commonstatistical test problems in a comprehensive way, making it easy to find and performan appropriate statistical test. A general summary of statistical test theory is presented, along with a basicdescription for each test, including the

  2. Groupthink: Hypothesis in Need of Testing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moorhead, Gregory

    1982-01-01

    Reviews the major tenets of the groupthink hypothesis of Irving Janis, as well as the research on which it is based. Reviews previous research on group dynamics related to groupthink. Proposes guidelines for research to test the propositions of groupthink. (Author/RC)

  3. Hypothesis Formation and Testing in Clinical Judgment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strohmer, Douglas C.; And Others

    1983-01-01

    Examined the influence of cognitive complexity and client observation on the quality of clinical hypotheses counselors develop and the number of questions generated to test them. Results showed no effect of these variables on hypothesis quality; but a significant interaction between client observations on the number of questions developed. (LLL)

  4. Multi-agent sequential hypothesis testing

    KAUST Repository

    Kim, Kwang-Ki K.

    2014-12-15

    This paper considers multi-agent sequential hypothesis testing and presents a framework for strategic learning in sequential games with explicit consideration of both temporal and spatial coordination. The associated Bayes risk functions explicitly incorporate costs of taking private/public measurements, costs of time-difference and disagreement in actions of agents, and costs of false declaration/choices in the sequential hypothesis testing. The corresponding sequential decision processes have well-defined value functions with respect to (a) the belief states for the case of conditional independent private noisy measurements that are also assumed to be independent identically distributed over time, and (b) the information states for the case of correlated private noisy measurements. A sequential investment game of strategic coordination and delay is also discussed as an application of the proposed strategic learning rules.

  5. Probability, clinical decision making and hypothesis testing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A Banerjee

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Few clinicians grasp the true concept of probability expressed in the ′P value.′ For most, a statistically significant P value is the end of the search for truth. In fact, the opposite is the case. The present paper attempts to put the P value in proper perspective by explaining different types of probabilities, their role in clinical decision making, medical research and hypothesis testing.

  6. Testing competing forms of the Milankovitch hypothesis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kaufmann, Robert K.; Juselius, Katarina

    2016-01-01

    We test competing forms of the Milankovitch hypothesis by estimating the coefficients and diagnostic statistics for a cointegrated vector autoregressive model that includes 10 climate variables and four exogenous variables for solar insolation. The estimates are consistent with the physical...... mechanisms postulated to drive glacial cycles. They show that the climate variables are driven partly by solar insolation, determining the timing and magnitude of glaciations and terminations, and partly by internal feedback dynamics, pushing the climate variables away from equilibrium. We argue...... that the latter is consistent with a weak form of the Milankovitch hypothesis and that it should be restated as follows: Internal climate dynamics impose perturbations on glacial cycles that are driven by solar insolation. Our results show that these perturbations are likely caused by slow adjustment between land...

  7. Biostatistics Series Module 2: Overview of Hypothesis Testing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hazra, Avijit; Gogtay, Nithya

    2016-01-01

    Hypothesis testing (or statistical inference) is one of the major applications of biostatistics. Much of medical research begins with a research question that can be framed as a hypothesis. Inferential statistics begins with a null hypothesis that reflects the conservative position of no change or no difference in comparison to baseline or between groups. Usually, the researcher has reason to believe that there is some effect or some difference which is the alternative hypothesis. The researcher therefore proceeds to study samples and measure outcomes in the hope of generating evidence strong enough for the statistician to be able to reject the null hypothesis. The concept of the P value is almost universally used in hypothesis testing. It denotes the probability of obtaining by chance a result at least as extreme as that observed, even when the null hypothesis is true and no real difference exists. Usually, if P is < 0.05 the null hypothesis is rejected and sample results are deemed statistically significant. With the increasing availability of computers and access to specialized statistical software, the drudgery involved in statistical calculations is now a thing of the past, once the learning curve of the software has been traversed. The life sciences researcher is therefore free to devote oneself to optimally designing the study, carefully selecting the hypothesis tests to be applied, and taking care in conducting the study well. Unfortunately, selecting the right test seems difficult initially. Thinking of the research hypothesis as addressing one of five generic research questions helps in selection of the right hypothesis test. In addition, it is important to be clear about the nature of the variables (e.g., numerical vs. categorical; parametric vs. nonparametric) and the number of groups or data sets being compared (e.g., two or more than two) at a time. The same research question may be explored by more than one type of hypothesis test. While this may be

  8. Biostatistics series module 2: Overview of hypothesis testing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Avijit Hazra

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Hypothesis testing (or statistical inference is one of the major applications of biostatistics. Much of medical research begins with a research question that can be framed as a hypothesis. Inferential statistics begins with a null hypothesis that reflects the conservative position of no change or no difference in comparison to baseline or between groups. Usually, the researcher has reason to believe that there is some effect or some difference which is the alternative hypothesis. The researcher therefore proceeds to study samples and measure outcomes in the hope of generating evidence strong enough for the statistician to be able to reject the null hypothesis. The concept of the P value is almost universally used in hypothesis testing. It denotes the probability of obtaining by chance a result at least as extreme as that observed, even when the null hypothesis is true and no real difference exists. Usually, if P is < 0.05 the null hypothesis is rejected and sample results are deemed statistically significant. With the increasing availability of computers and access to specialized statistical software, the drudgery involved in statistical calculations is now a thing of the past, once the learning curve of the software has been traversed. The life sciences researcher is therefore free to devote oneself to optimally designing the study, carefully selecting the hypothesis tests to be applied, and taking care in conducting the study well. Unfortunately, selecting the right test seems difficult initially. Thinking of the research hypothesis as addressing one of five generic research questions helps in selection of the right hypothesis test. In addition, it is important to be clear about the nature of the variables (e.g., numerical vs. categorical; parametric vs. nonparametric and the number of groups or data sets being compared (e.g., two or more than two at a time. The same research question may be explored by more than one type of hypothesis test

  9. Test of Taylor's Hypothesis with Distributed Temperature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, Y.; Gentine, P.; Sayde, C.; Tanner, E.; Ochsner, T. E.; Dong, J.

    2016-12-01

    Taylor's hypothesis[Taylor, 1938] assumes that mean wind speed carries the spatial pattern of turbulent motion past a fixed point in a "frozen" way, which has been widely used to relate streamwise wavenumber and angular frequency . Experiments[Fisher, 1964; Tong, 1996] have shown some deviation from Taylor's hypothesis at highly turbulent intensity flows and at high wavenumbers. However, the velocity or scalar measurements have always been fixed at a few spatial points rather than distributed in space. This experiment was designed for the first time to directly compare the time and spatial spectrum of temperature to test Taylor's hypothesis, measuring temperature with high resolution in both time and space by Distributed Temperature Sensing utilizing the attenuation difference of Raman scattering in the optic fiber at the MOISST site Oklahoma. The length of transact is 233 meters along the dominant wind direction. The temperature sampling distance is 0.127m and sampling time frequency is 1 Hz. The heights of the 4 fiber cables parallel to ground are 1m, 1.254m, 1.508m and 1.762m respectively. Also, eddy covariance instrument was set up near the Distributed Temperature Sensing as comparison for temperature data. The temperature spatial spectrum could be obtained with one fixed time point, while the temperature time spectrum could be obtained with one fixed spatial point in the middle of transact. The preliminary results would be presented in the AGU fall meeting. Reference Fisher, M. J., and Davies, P.O.A.L (1964), Correlation measurements in a non-frozen pattern of turbulence, Journal of fluid mechanics, 18(1), 97-116. Taylor, G. I. (1938), The spectrum of turbulence, Proceedings of the Royal Society of London A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 164(919), 476-490. Tong, C. (1996), Taylor's Hypothesis and Two-point Coherence Measurements, Boundary-Layer Meteorology, 81(3), 399-410.

  10. Hypothesis Testing as an Act of Rationality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nearing, Grey

    2017-04-01

    Statistical hypothesis testing is ad hoc in two ways. First, setting probabilistic rejection criteria is, as Neyman (1957) put it, an act of will rather than an act of rationality. Second, physical theories like conservation laws do not inherently admit probabilistic predictions, and so we must use what are called epistemic bridge principles to connect model predictions with the actual methods of hypothesis testing. In practice, these bridge principles are likelihood functions, error functions, or performance metrics. I propose that the reason we are faced with these problems is because we have historically failed to account for a fundamental component of basic logic - namely the portion of logic that explains how epistemic states evolve in the presence of empirical data. This component of Cox' (1946) calculitic logic is called information theory (Knuth, 2005), and adding information theory our hypothetico-deductive account of science yields straightforward solutions to both of the above problems. This also yields a straightforward method for dealing with Popper's (1963) problem of verisimilitude by facilitating a quantitative approach to measuring process isomorphism. In practice, this involves data assimilation. Finally, information theory allows us to reliably bound measures of epistemic uncertainty, thereby avoiding the problem of Bayesian incoherency under misspecified priors (Grünwald, 2006). I therefore propose solutions to four of the fundamental problems inherent in both hypothetico-deductive and/or Bayesian hypothesis testing. - Neyman (1957) Inductive Behavior as a Basic Concept of Philosophy of Science. - Cox (1946) Probability, Frequency and Reasonable Expectation. - Knuth (2005) Lattice Duality: The Origin of Probability and Entropy. - Grünwald (2006). Bayesian Inconsistency under Misspecification. - Popper (1963) Conjectures and Refutations: The Growth of Scientific Knowledge.

  11. Testing the gonadal regression-cytoprotection hypothesis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crawford, B A; Spaliviero, J A; Simpson, J M; Handelsman, D J

    1998-11-15

    Germinal damage is an almost universal accompaniment of cancer treatment as the result of bystander damage to the testis from cytotoxic drugs and/or irradiation. Cancer treatment for the most common cancers of the reproductive age group in men has improved such that most are now treated with curative intent, and many others are treated with likelihood of prolonged survival, so that the preservation of fertility is an important component of posttreatment quality of life. This has led to the consideration of developing adjuvant treatments that may reduce the gonadal toxicity of cancer therapy. One dominant hypothesis has been based on the supposition that the immature testis was resistant to cytotoxin damage. Hence, if hormonal treatment were able to cause spermatogenic regression to an immature state via an effective withdrawal of gonadotrophin secretion, the testis might be maintained temporarily in a protected state during cytotoxin exposure. However, clinical studies have been disappointing but have also been unable to test the hypothesis definitively thus far, due to the inability to completely suppress gonadotrophin secretion. Similarly, experimental models have also given conflicting results and, at best, a modest cytoprotection. To definitively test this hypothesis experimentally, we used the fact that the functionally hpg mouse has complete gonadotrophin deficiency but can undergo the induction of full spermatogenesis by testosterone. Thus, if complete gonadotrophin deficiency were an advantage during cytotoxin exposure, then the hpg mouse should exhibit some degree of germinal protection against cytotoxin-induced damage. We therefore administered three different cytotoxins (200 mg/kg procarbazine, 9 mg/kg doxorubicin, 8 Gy of X irradiation) to produce a range of severity in testicular damage and mechanism of action to either phenotypically normal or hpg mice. Testis weight and homogenization-resistant spermatid numbers were measured to evaluate the

  12. The Logical Consistency of Simultaneous Agnostic Hypothesis Tests

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luís G. Esteves

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Simultaneous hypothesis tests can fail to provide results that meet logical requirements. For example, if A and B are two statements such that A implies B, there exist tests that, based on the same data, reject B but not A. Such outcomes are generally inconvenient to statisticians (who want to communicate the results to practitioners in a simple fashion and non-statisticians (confused by conflicting pieces of information. Based on this inconvenience, one might want to use tests that satisfy logical requirements. However, Izbicki and Esteves shows that the only tests that are in accordance with three logical requirements (monotonicity, invertibility and consonance are trivial tests based on point estimation, which generally lack statistical optimality. As a possible solution to this dilemma, this paper adapts the above logical requirements to agnostic tests, in which one can accept, reject or remain agnostic with respect to a given hypothesis. Each of the logical requirements is characterized in terms of a Bayesian decision theoretic perspective. Contrary to the results obtained for regular hypothesis tests, there exist agnostic tests that satisfy all logical requirements and also perform well statistically. In particular, agnostic tests that fulfill all logical requirements are characterized as region estimator-based tests. Examples of such tests are provided.

  13. The discovered preference hypothesis - an empirical test

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lundhede, Thomas; Ladenburg, Jacob; Olsen, Søren Bøye

    Using stated preference methods for valuation of non-market goods is known to be vulnerable to a range of biases. Some authors claim that these so-called anomalies in effect render the methods useless for the purpose. However, the Discovered Preference Hypothesis, as put forth by Plott [31], offers...... an nterpretation and explanation of biases which entails that the stated preference methods need not to be completely written off. In this paper we conduct a test for the validity and relevance of the DPH interpretation of biases. In a choice experiment concerning preferences for protection of Danish nature areas...... from new motorway development, we find that respondent preferences are susceptible to starting point bias. In particular, our results show that the bias is gender-specific as only female respondents are significantly biased. Importantly, we find that the impact of the starting point bias decays...

  14. The discovered preference hypothesis - an empirical test

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lundhede, Thomas; Ladenburg, Jacob; Olsen, Søren Bøye

    an nterpretation and explanation of biases which entails that the stated preference methods need not to be completely written off. In this paper we conduct a test for the validity and relevance of the DPH interpretation of biases. In a choice experiment concerning preferences for protection of Danish nature areas...... from new motorway development, we find that respondent preferences are susceptible to starting point bias. In particular, our results show that the bias is gender-specific as only female respondents are significantly biased. Importantly, we find that the impact of the starting point bias decays......Using stated preference methods for valuation of non-market goods is known to be vulnerable to a range of biases. Some authors claim that these so-called anomalies in effect render the methods useless for the purpose. However, the Discovered Preference Hypothesis, as put forth by Plott [31], offers...

  15. Bayesian hypothesis testing for key comparisons

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wübbeler, Gerd; Bodnar, Olha; Elster, Clemens

    2016-08-01

    Unilateral degrees of equivalence are the key result in the analysis of key comparison data and they are used to approve, or disapprove, calibration and measurement capabilities of the participating laboratories. To this end, it is checked whether a degree of equivalence differs significantly from zero. Proceeding in such a way can be viewed as carrying out a classical hypothesis test. We develop a Bayesian counterpart to this approach which has the advantage that it can include prior assessment of the corresponding Consultative Committee about the calibration and measurement capabilities of the participating laboratories. Simple expressions are derived and their implementation is provided in terms of MATLAB® and R programs. The novel procedure is illustrated by its application to two recent key comparisons CCL-K1 and CCM.FF-K4.1.2011.

  16. The hubris hypothesis: The downside of comparative optimism displays.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoorens, Vera; Van Damme, Carolien; Helweg-Larsen, Marie; Sedikides, Constantine

    2017-04-01

    According to the hubris hypothesis, observers respond more unfavorably to individuals who express their positive self-views comparatively than to those who express their positive self-views non-comparatively, because observers infer that the former hold a more disparaging view of others and particularly of observers. Two experiments extended the hubris hypothesis in the domain of optimism. Observers attributed less warmth (but not less competence) to, and showed less interest in affiliating with, an individual displaying comparative optimism (the belief that one's future will be better than others' future) than with an individual displaying absolute optimism (the belief that one's future will be good). Observers responded differently to individuals displaying comparative versus absolute optimism, because they inferred that the former held a gloomier view of the observers' future. Consistent with previous research, observers still attributed more positive traits to a comparative or absolute optimist than to a comparative or absolute pessimist. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  17. Vocational Hypothesis Testing in Career Decision-Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blustein, David L.; Strohmer, Douglas C.

    1987-01-01

    Examined vocational hypothesis testing by applying Snyder's hypothesis-testing research paradigm to a vocational task in two experiments. Subjects (N=106) were asked to evaluate the appropriateness of a specific occupation for themselves. Subjects tended to exhibit confirmatory hypothesis-testing strategies when relevant occupations were…

  18. Epithelial ovarian cancer: testing the 'androgens hypothesis'.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olsen, Catherine M; Green, Adèle C; Nagle, Christina M; Jordan, Susan J; Whiteman, David C; Bain, Christopher J; Webb, Penelope M

    2008-12-01

    In 1998, Risch proposed a hypothesis for the pathogenesis of ovarian cancer relating to the role of androgens in stimulating epithelial cell proliferation. Although this hypothesis has been widely discussed, direct evidence to support it is scant. To address this issue, we have conducted a detailed analysis of factors possibly associated with high circulating levels of androgens, including polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS), hirsutism and acne (all clinically associated with hyperandrogenism) using the data collected in an Australia-wide, population-based case-control study. Cases aged 18-79 years with a new diagnosis of invasive epithelial ovarian cancer (n=1276) or borderline malignant tumour (n=315) were identified through a network of clinics and cancer registries throughout Australia. Controls (n=1508) were selected from the National Electoral Roll. Women self-reported a history of PCOS, acne, hirsutism and also use of testosterone supplements or the androgenic medication Danazol. We found no evidence that a history of PCOS, acne or hirsutism was associated with ovarian cancer overall, or with specific subtypes, with the exception of serous borderline tumours that were positively associated with a history of PCOS (OR 2.6; 95% CI 1.0-6.1). Women who had ever used testosterone supplements had an increased risk of ovarian cancer (OR 3.7; 95% CI 1.1-12.0); however, use of the androgenic medication Danazol did not increase risk (OR 1.0; 95% CI 0.4-2.9). Overall, our results do not support the hypothesis that androgen-related disorders increase the risk of ovarian cancer.

  19. A default Bayesian hypothesis test for ANOVA designs

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wetzels, R.; Grasman, R.P.P.P.; Wagenmakers, E.J.

    2012-01-01

    This article presents a Bayesian hypothesis test for analysis of variance (ANOVA) designs. The test is an application of standard Bayesian methods for variable selection in regression models. We illustrate the effect of various g-priors on the ANOVA hypothesis test. The Bayesian test for ANOVA desig

  20. Chi-square test and its application in hypothesis testing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rakesh Rana

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available In medical research, there are studies which often collect data on categorical variables that can be summarized as a series of counts. These counts are commonly arranged in a tabular format known as a contingency table. The chi-square test statistic can be used to evaluate whether there is an association between the rows and columns in a contingency table. More specifically, this statistic can be used to determine whether there is any difference between the study groups in the proportions of the risk factor of interest. Chi-square test and the logic of hypothesis testing were developed by Karl Pearson. This article describes in detail what is a chi-square test, on which type of data it is used, the assumptions associated with its application, how to manually calculate it and how to make use of an online calculator for calculating the Chi-square statistics and its associated P-value.

  1. Testing the SOC hypothesis for the magnetosphere

    CERN Document Server

    Watkins, N W; Chapman, S C; Dendy, R O

    2001-01-01

    As noted by Chang, the hypothesis of Self-Organised Criticality provides atheoretical framework in which the low dimensionality seen in magnetosphericindices can be combined with the scaling seen in their power spectra and therecently-observed plasma bursty bulk flows. As such, it has considerableappeal, describing the aspects of the magnetospheric fuelling:storage:releasecycle which are generic to slowly-driven, interaction-dominated, thresholdedsystems rather than unique to the magnetosphere. In consequence, several recentnumerical "sandpile" algorithms have been used with a view to comparison withmagnetospheric observables. However, demonstration of SOC in the magnetospherewill require further work in the definition of a set of observable propertieswhich are the unique "fingerprint" of SOC. This is because, for example, ascale-free power spectrum admits several possible explanations other than SOC. A more subtle problem is important for both simulations and data analysiswhen dealing with multiscale and hen...

  2. An algorithm for testing the efficient market hypothesis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ioana-Andreea Boboc

    Full Text Available The objective of this research is to examine the efficiency of EUR/USD market through the application of a trading system. The system uses a genetic algorithm based on technical analysis indicators such as Exponential Moving Average (EMA, Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD, Relative Strength Index (RSI and Filter that gives buying and selling recommendations to investors. The algorithm optimizes the strategies by dynamically searching for parameters that improve profitability in the training period. The best sets of rules are then applied on the testing period. The results show inconsistency in finding a set of trading rules that performs well in both periods. Strategies that achieve very good returns in the training period show difficulty in returning positive results in the testing period, this being consistent with the efficient market hypothesis (EMH.

  3. An algorithm for testing the efficient market hypothesis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boboc, Ioana-Andreea; Dinică, Mihai-Cristian

    2013-01-01

    The objective of this research is to examine the efficiency of EUR/USD market through the application of a trading system. The system uses a genetic algorithm based on technical analysis indicators such as Exponential Moving Average (EMA), Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Filter that gives buying and selling recommendations to investors. The algorithm optimizes the strategies by dynamically searching for parameters that improve profitability in the training period. The best sets of rules are then applied on the testing period. The results show inconsistency in finding a set of trading rules that performs well in both periods. Strategies that achieve very good returns in the training period show difficulty in returning positive results in the testing period, this being consistent with the efficient market hypothesis (EMH).

  4. An Algorithm for Testing the Efficient Market Hypothesis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boboc, Ioana-Andreea; Dinică, Mihai-Cristian

    2013-01-01

    The objective of this research is to examine the efficiency of EUR/USD market through the application of a trading system. The system uses a genetic algorithm based on technical analysis indicators such as Exponential Moving Average (EMA), Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Filter that gives buying and selling recommendations to investors. The algorithm optimizes the strategies by dynamically searching for parameters that improve profitability in the training period. The best sets of rules are then applied on the testing period. The results show inconsistency in finding a set of trading rules that performs well in both periods. Strategies that achieve very good returns in the training period show difficulty in returning positive results in the testing period, this being consistent with the efficient market hypothesis (EMH). PMID:24205148

  5. Reaction Coordinates and Mechanistic Hypothesis Tests.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peters, Baron

    2016-05-27

    Reaction coordinates are integral to several classic rate theories that can (a) predict kinetic trends across conditions and homologous reactions, (b) extract activation parameters with a clear physical interpretation from experimental rates, and (c) enable efficient calculations of free energy barriers and rates. New trajectory-based rare events methods can provide rates directly from dynamical trajectories without a reaction coordinate. Trajectory-based frameworks can also generate ideal (but abstract) reaction coordinates such as committors and eigenfunctions of the master equation. However, rates and mechanistic insights obtained from trajectory-based methods and abstract coordinates are not readily generalized across simulation conditions or reaction families. We discuss methods for identifying physically meaningful reaction coordinates, including committor analysis, variational transition state theory, Kramers-Langer-Berezhkovskii-Szabo theory, and statistical inference methods that can use path sampling data to screen, mix, and optimize thousands of trial coordinates. Special focus is given to likelihood maximization and inertial likelihood maximization approaches.

  6. Reaction Coordinates and Mechanistic Hypothesis Tests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peters, Baron

    2016-05-01

    Reaction coordinates are integral to several classic rate theories that can (a) predict kinetic trends across conditions and homologous reactions, (b) extract activation parameters with a clear physical interpretation from experimental rates, and (c) enable efficient calculations of free energy barriers and rates. New trajectory-based rare events methods can provide rates directly from dynamical trajectories without a reaction coordinate. Trajectory-based frameworks can also generate ideal (but abstract) reaction coordinates such as committors and eigenfunctions of the master equation. However, rates and mechanistic insights obtained from trajectory-based methods and abstract coordinates are not readily generalized across simulation conditions or reaction families. We discuss methods for identifying physically meaningful reaction coordinates, including committor analysis, variational transition state theory, Kramers-Langer-Berezhkovskii-Szabo theory, and statistical inference methods that can use path sampling data to screen, mix, and optimize thousands of trial coordinates. Special focus is given to likelihood maximization and inertial likelihood maximization approaches.

  7. Quantum Hypothesis Testing and Non-Equilibrium Statistical Mechanics

    CERN Document Server

    Jaksic, V; Pillet, C -A; Seiringer, R

    2011-01-01

    We extend the mathematical theory of quantum hypothesis testing to the general $W^*$-algebraic setting and explore its relation with recent developments in non-equilibrium quantum statistical mechanics. In particular, we relate the large deviation principle for the full counting statistics of entropy flow to quantum hypothesis testing of the arrow of time.

  8. An introduction to Bayesian hypothesis testing for management research

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Andraszewicz, S.; Scheibehenne, B.; Rieskamp, J.; Grasman, R.; Verhagen, J.; Wagenmakers, E.-J.

    2015-01-01

    In management research, empirical data are often analyzed using p-value null hypothesis significance testing (pNHST). Here we outline the conceptual and practical advantages of an alternative analysis method: Bayesian hypothesis testing and model selection using the Bayes factor. In contrast to

  9. Teaching Hypothesis Testing by Debunking a Demonstration of Telepathy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bates, John A.

    1991-01-01

    Discusses a lesson designed to demonstrate hypothesis testing to introductory college psychology students. Explains that a psychology instructor demonstrated apparent psychic abilities to students. Reports that students attempted to explain the instructor's demonstrations through hypothesis testing and revision. Provides instructions on performing…

  10. Making Knowledge Delivery Failsafe: Adding Step Zero in Hypothesis Testing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pan, Xia; Zhou, Qiang

    2010-01-01

    Knowledge of statistical analysis is increasingly important for professionals in modern business. For example, hypothesis testing is one of the critical topics for quality managers and team workers in Six Sigma training programs. Delivering the knowledge of hypothesis testing effectively can be an important step for the incapable learners or…

  11. Hypothesis testing in animal social networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Croft, Darren P; Madden, Joah R; Franks, Daniel W; James, Richard

    2011-10-01

    Behavioural ecologists are increasingly using social network analysis to describe the social organisation of animal populations and to test hypotheses. However, the statistical analysis of network data presents a number of challenges. In particular the non-independent nature of the data violates the assumptions of many common statistical approaches. In our opinion there is currently confusion and uncertainty amongst behavioural ecologists concerning the potential pitfalls when hypotheses testing using social network data. Here we review what we consider to be key considerations associated with the analysis of animal social networks and provide a practical guide to the use of null models based on randomisation to control for structure and non-independence in the data.

  12. Testing Happiness Hypothesis among the Elderly

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rossi Máximo

    2008-08-01

    Full Text Available We use a rich data set that allows us to test different happiness hypotheses employing four methodological approaches. We find that older people in Uruguay have a tendency to report themselves happy when they are married, when they have higher standards of health and when they earn higher levels of income or they consider that their income is suitable for their standard of living. On the contrary, they report lower levels of happiness when they live alone and when their nutrition is insufficient. We also find that education has no clear impact on happiness. We think that our study is a contribution to the study of those factors that can explain happiness among the elderly in Latin American countries. Future work will focus on enhanced empirical analysis and in extending our study to other countries.

  13. Unscaled Bayes factors for multiple hypothesis testing in microarray experiments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bertolino, Francesco; Cabras, Stefano; Castellanos, Maria Eugenia; Racugno, Walter

    2015-12-01

    Multiple hypothesis testing collects a series of techniques usually based on p-values as a summary of the available evidence from many statistical tests. In hypothesis testing, under a Bayesian perspective, the evidence for a specified hypothesis against an alternative, conditionally on data, is given by the Bayes factor. In this study, we approach multiple hypothesis testing based on both Bayes factors and p-values, regarding multiple hypothesis testing as a multiple model selection problem. To obtain the Bayes factors we assume default priors that are typically improper. In this case, the Bayes factor is usually undetermined due to the ratio of prior pseudo-constants. We show that ignoring prior pseudo-constants leads to unscaled Bayes factor which do not invalidate the inferential procedure in multiple hypothesis testing, because they are used within a comparative scheme. In fact, using partial information from the p-values, we are able to approximate the sampling null distribution of the unscaled Bayes factor and use it within Efron's multiple testing procedure. The simulation study suggests that under normal sampling model and even with small sample sizes, our approach provides false positive and false negative proportions that are less than other common multiple hypothesis testing approaches based only on p-values. The proposed procedure is illustrated in two simulation studies, and the advantages of its use are showed in the analysis of two microarray experiments.

  14. Approaches to informed consent for hypothesis-testing and hypothesis-generating clinical genomics research

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Facio Flavia M

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Massively-parallel sequencing (MPS technologies create challenges for informed consent of research participants given the enormous scale of the data and the wide range of potential results. Discussion We propose that the consent process in these studies be based on whether they use MPS to test a hypothesis or to generate hypotheses. To demonstrate the differences in these approaches to informed consent, we describe the consent processes for two MPS studies. The purpose of our hypothesis-testing study is to elucidate the etiology of rare phenotypes using MPS. The purpose of our hypothesis-generating study is to test the feasibility of using MPS to generate clinical hypotheses, and to approach the return of results as an experimental manipulation. Issues to consider in both designs include: volume and nature of the potential results, primary versus secondary results, return of individual results, duty to warn, length of interaction, target population, and privacy and confidentiality. Summary The categorization of MPS studies as hypothesis-testing versus hypothesis-generating can help to clarify the issue of so-called incidental or secondary results for the consent process, and aid the communication of the research goals to study participants.

  15. The old age security hypothesis and optimal population growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bental, B

    1989-03-01

    The application of the Samuelson-Diamond overlapping generations framework to the old age security hypothesis indicates that government intervention schemes can influence the relationship between population growth and capital accumulation. The most direct means of optimizing population growth is through taxes or subsidies that relate to the intergenerational transfer of wealth. A pay-as-you-go social security scheme, in which payment is predicated on the number of children the receiver has and is financed by taxes levied on the working population, emerges as the most likely intervention to produce the optimal steady state equilibrium. This system is able to correct any distortions the private sector may build into it. In contrast, a child support system, in which the government subsidizes or taxes workers according to their family size, can guarantee the optimal capital:labor ratio but not the optimal population growth rate. Thus, if the government seeks to decrease the population growth rate, the appropriate intervention is to levy a lump-sum social-security tax on workers and transfer the revenues to the old; the direction should be reversed if the goal is to increase population growth. Another alternative, a lump sum social security system, can guarantee optimal population growth but not a desirable capital:labor ratio. Finally, the introduction of money as a valued commodity into an economy with a high capital:labor ratio will also serve to decrease the population growth rate and solve the intergenerational transfer problem through the private sector without any need for government intervention.

  16. Moving beyond traditional null hypothesis testing: evaluating expectations directly

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van de Schoot, R.; Hoijtink, H.J.A.; Romeijn, J.W.

    2011-01-01

    This mini-review illustrates that testing the traditional null hypothesis is not always the appropriate strategy. Half in jest, we discuss Aristotle's scientific investigations into the shape of the earth in the context of evaluating the traditional null hypothesis. We conclude that Aristotle was ac

  17. A Test for the Zero Mean Hypothesis in Cosmology

    CERN Document Server

    Ichiki, Kiyotomo

    2014-01-01

    One working hypothesis on which analyses of cosmological data are based is the zero ensemble mean hypothesis, which is related to the statistical homogeneity of cosmological perturbations. This hypothesis, however, should be tested by observational data in the current era of precision cosmology. Herein, we test the hypothesis by analyzing recent, foreground-reduced cosmic microwave background (CMB) maps, combining the spherical harmonic coefficients of the masked CMB temperature anisotropies in such a way that the combined variables can be treated as statistically independent samples. We find evidence against the zero mean hypothesis in two particular ranges of multipoles, with significance levels of $2.5 \\sigma$ and $3.1 \\sigma$ in the multipole ranges of $\\ell \\approx 61$-$86$ and $213$-$256$, respectively, for both the Planck and Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe maps. The latter signal is consistent with our previous result found by using brute-force Monte-Carlo simulations. However, within the method ...

  18. Cross-system log file analysis for hypothesis testing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Glahn, Christian

    2008-01-01

    Glahn, C. (2008). Cross-system log file analysis for hypothesis testing. Presented at Empowering Learners for Lifelong Competence Development: pedagogical, organisational and technological issues. 4th TENCompetence Open Workshop. April, 10, 2008, Madrid, Spain.

  19. Cross-system log file analysis for hypothesis testing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Glahn, Christian

    2008-01-01

    Glahn, C. (2008). Cross-system log file analysis for hypothesis testing. Presented at Empowering Learners for Lifelong Competence Development: pedagogical, organisational and technological issues. 4th TENCompetence Open Workshop. April, 10, 2008, Madrid, Spain.

  20. Tests of the 'Convergence Hypothesis': Some Further Results

    OpenAIRE

    Cohen, Daniel

    1995-01-01

    This paper offers new tests of the `convergence hypothesis'. It first analyses the pattern of growth of measured inputs (human and physical capital conventionally measured by an inventory method) and shows that these tests sustain the hypothesis. On the other hand, when the pattern of growth of revealed inputs (physical capital and Solow residual) is analysed, one is led to reject the convergence theory. In order to understand what lies at the heart of this discrepancy, the paper shows that t...

  1. A Bayesian Decision-Theoretic Approach to Logically-Consistent Hypothesis Testing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gustavo Miranda da Silva

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available This work addresses an important issue regarding the performance of simultaneous test procedures: the construction of multiple tests that at the same time are optimal from a statistical perspective and that also yield logically-consistent results that are easy to communicate to practitioners of statistical methods. For instance, if hypothesis A implies hypothesis B, is it possible to create optimal testing procedures that reject A whenever they reject B? Unfortunately, several standard testing procedures fail in having such logical consistency. Although this has been deeply investigated under a frequentist perspective, the literature lacks analyses under a Bayesian paradigm. In this work, we contribute to the discussion by investigating three rational relationships under a Bayesian decision-theoretic standpoint: coherence, invertibility and union consonance. We characterize and illustrate through simple examples optimal Bayes tests that fulfill each of these requisites separately. We also explore how far one can go by putting these requirements together. We show that although fairly intuitive tests satisfy both coherence and invertibility, no Bayesian testing scheme meets the desiderata as a whole, strengthening the understanding that logical consistency cannot be combined with statistical optimality in general. Finally, we associate Bayesian hypothesis testing with Bayes point estimation procedures. We prove the performance of logically-consistent hypothesis testing by means of a Bayes point estimator to be optimal only under very restrictive conditions.

  2. Testing the null hypothesis: the forgotten legacy of Karl Popper?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilkinson, Mick

    2013-01-01

    Testing of the null hypothesis is a fundamental aspect of the scientific method and has its basis in the falsification theory of Karl Popper. Null hypothesis testing makes use of deductive reasoning to ensure that the truth of conclusions is irrefutable. In contrast, attempting to demonstrate the new facts on the basis of testing the experimental or research hypothesis makes use of inductive reasoning and is prone to the problem of the Uniformity of Nature assumption described by David Hume in the eighteenth century. Despite this issue and the well documented solution provided by Popper's falsification theory, the majority of publications are still written such that they suggest the research hypothesis is being tested. This is contrary to accepted scientific convention and possibly highlights a poor understanding of the application of conventional significance-based data analysis approaches. Our work should remain driven by conjecture and attempted falsification such that it is always the null hypothesis that is tested. The write up of our studies should make it clear that we are indeed testing the null hypothesis and conforming to the established and accepted philosophical conventions of the scientific method.

  3. Debates—Hypothesis testing in hydrology: Theory and practice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pfister, Laurent; Kirchner, James W.

    2017-03-01

    The basic structure of the scientific method—at least in its idealized form—is widely championed as a recipe for scientific progress, but the day-to-day practice may be different. Here, we explore the spectrum of current practice in hypothesis formulation and testing in hydrology, based on a random sample of recent research papers. This analysis suggests that in hydrology, as in other fields, hypothesis formulation and testing rarely correspond to the idealized model of the scientific method. Practices such as "p-hacking" or "HARKing" (Hypothesizing After the Results are Known) are major obstacles to more rigorous hypothesis testing in hydrology, along with the well-known problem of confirmation bias—the tendency to value and trust confirmations more than refutations—among both researchers and reviewers. Nonetheless, as several examples illustrate, hypothesis tests have played an essential role in spurring major advances in hydrological theory. Hypothesis testing is not the only recipe for scientific progress, however. Exploratory research, driven by innovations in measurement and observation, has also underlain many key advances. Further improvements in observation and measurement will be vital to both exploratory research and hypothesis testing, and thus to advancing the science of hydrology.

  4. A Numerical Test on the Riemann Hypothesis with Applications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. K. Oladejo

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Problem statement: The Riemann hypothesis involves two products of the zeta function ζ(s which are: Prime numbers and the zeros of the zeta function ζ(s. It states that the zeros of a certain complex-valued function ζ (s of a complex number s ≠ 1 all have a special form, which may be trivial or non trivial. Zeros at the negative even integers (i.e., at S = -2, S = -4, S = -6... are called the non-trivial zeros. The Riemann hypothesis is however concerned with the trivial zeros. Approach: This study tested the hypothesis numerically and established its relationship with prime numbers. Results: Test of the hypotheses was carried out via relative error and test for convergence through ratio integral test was proved to ascertain the results. Conclusion: The result obtained in the above findings and computations supports the fact that the Riemann hypothesis is true, as it assumed a smaller error as possible as x approaches infinity and that the distribution of primes was closely related to the Riemann hypothesis as was tested numerically and the Riemann hypothesis had a positive relationship with prime numbers.

  5. Bayesian Approaches to Imputation, Hypothesis Testing, and Parameter Estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ross, Steven J.; Mackey, Beth

    2015-01-01

    This chapter introduces three applications of Bayesian inference to common and novel issues in second language research. After a review of the critiques of conventional hypothesis testing, our focus centers on ways Bayesian inference can be used for dealing with missing data, for testing theory-driven substantive hypotheses without a default null…

  6. A large scale test of the gaming-enhancement hypothesis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrew K. Przybylski

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available A growing research literature suggests that regular electronic game play and game-based training programs may confer practically significant benefits to cognitive functioning. Most evidence supporting this idea, the gaming-enhancement hypothesis, has been collected in small-scale studies of university students and older adults. This research investigated the hypothesis in a general way with a large sample of 1,847 school-aged children. Our aim was to examine the relations between young people’s gaming experiences and an objective test of reasoning performance. Using a Bayesian hypothesis testing approach, evidence for the gaming-enhancement and null hypotheses were compared. Results provided no substantive evidence supporting the idea that having preference for or regularly playing commercially available games was positively associated with reasoning ability. Evidence ranged from equivocal to very strong in support for the null hypothesis over what was predicted. The discussion focuses on the value of Bayesian hypothesis testing for investigating electronic gaming effects, the importance of open science practices, and pre-registered designs to improve the quality of future work.

  7. The data aggregation problem in quantum hypothesis testing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cialdi, Simone; Paris, Matteo G. A.

    2015-01-01

    We discuss the implications of quantum-classical Yule-Simpson effect for quantum hypothesis testing in the presence of noise, and provide an experimental demonstration of its occurrence in the problem of discriminating which polarization quantum measurement has been actually performed by a detector box designed to measure linear polarization of single-photon states along a fixed but unknown direction.

  8. Interactive comparison of hypothesis tests for statistical model checking

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Boer, Pieter-Tjerk; Reijsbergen, D.P.; Scheinhardt, Willem R.W.

    2015-01-01

    We present a web-based interactive comparison of hypothesis tests as are used in statistical model checking, providing users and tool developers with more insight into their characteristics. Parameters can be modified easily and their influence is visualized in real time; an integrated simulation

  9. Segmentation by Large Scale Hypothesis Testing - Segmentation as Outlier Detection

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Darkner, Sune; Dahl, Anders Lindbjerg; Larsen, Rasmus

    2010-01-01

    locally. We propose a method based on large scale hypothesis testing with a consistent method for selecting an appropriate threshold for the given data. By estimating the background distribution we characterize the segment of interest as a set of outliers with a certain probability based on the estimated...

  10. Cross-system log file analysis for hypothesis testing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Glahn, Christian; Specht, Marcus; Schoonenboom, Judith; Sligte, Henk; Moghnieh, Ayman; Hernández-Leo, Davinia; Stefanov, Krassen; Lemmers, Ruud; Koper, Rob

    2008-01-01

    Glahn, C., Specht, M., Schoonenboom, J., Sligte, H., Moghnieh, A., Hernández-Leo, D. Stefanov, K., Lemmers, R., & Koper, R. (2008). Cross-system log file analysis for hypothesis testing. In H. Sligte & R. Koper (Eds.), Proceedings of the 4th TENCompetence Open Workshop. Empowering Learners for Lifel

  11. Hypothesis testing for rare-event simulation: limitations and possibilities

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Reijsbergen, D.P.; de Boer, Pieter-Tjerk; Scheinhardt, Willem R.W.; Margaria, Tiziana; Steffen, Bernhard

    2016-01-01

    One of the main applications of probabilistic model checking is to decide whether the probability of a property of interest is above or below a threshold. Using statistical model checking (SMC), this is done using a combination of stochastic simulation and statistical hypothesis testing. When the

  12. Sensory discrimination and intelligence: testing Spearman's other hypothesis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deary, Ian J; Bell, P Joseph; Bell, Andrew J; Campbell, Mary L; Fazal, Nicola D

    2004-01-01

    At the centenary of Spearman's seminal 1904 article, his general intelligence hypothesis remains one of the most influential in psychology. Less well known is the article's other hypothesis that there is "a correspondence between what may provisionally be called 'General Discrimination' and 'General Intelligence' which works out with great approximation to one or absoluteness" (Spearman, 1904, p. 284). Studies that do not find high correlations between psychometric intelligence and single sensory discrimination tests do not falsify this hypothesis. This study is the first directly to address Spearman's general intelligence-general sensory discrimination hypothesis. It attempts to replicate his findings with a similar sample of schoolchildren. In a well-fitting structural equation model of the data, general intelligence and general discrimination correlated .92. In a reanalysis of data published byActon and Schroeder (2001), general intelligence and general sensory ability correlated .68 in men and women. One hundred years after its conception, Spearman's other hypothesis achieves some confirmation. The association between general intelligence and general sensory ability remains to be replicated and explained.

  13. Nearly Efficient Likelihood Ratio Tests of the Unit Root Hypothesis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jansson, Michael; Nielsen, Morten Ørregaard

    Seemingly absent from the arsenal of currently available "nearly efficient" testing procedures for the unit root hypothesis, i.e. tests whose local asymptotic power functions are indistinguishable from the Gaussian power envelope, is a test admitting a (quasi-)likelihood ratio interpretation. We...... show that the likelihood ratio unit root test derived in a Gaussian AR(1) model with standard normal innovations is nearly efficient in that model. Moreover, these desirable properties carry over to more complicated models allowing for serially correlated and/or non-Gaussian innovations....

  14. Bayesian Hypothesis Test for Sparse Support Recovery using Belief Propagation

    CERN Document Server

    Kang, Jaewook; Kim, Kiseon

    2012-01-01

    In this paper, we introduce a new support recovery algorithm from noisy measurements called Bayesian hypothesis test via belief propagation (BHT-BP). BHT-BP focuses on sparse support recovery rather than sparse signal estimation. The key idea behind BHT-BP is to detect the support set of a sparse vector using hypothesis test where the posterior densities used in the test are obtained by aid of belief propagation (BP). Since BP provides precise posterior information using the noise statistic, BHT-BP can recover the support with robustness against the measurement noise. In addition, BHT-BP has low computational cost compared to the other algorithms by the use of BP. We show the support recovery performance of BHT-BP on the parameters (N; M; K; SNR) and compare the performance of BHT-BP to OMP and Lasso via numerical results.

  15. Hypothesis testing in students: Sequences, stages, and instructional strategies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moshman, David; Thompson, Pat A.

    Six sequences in the development of hypothesis-testing conceptions are proposed, involving (a) interpretation of the hypothesis; (b) the distinction between using theories and testing theories; (c) the consideration of multiple possibilities; (d) the relation of theory and data; (e) the nature of verification and falsification; and (f) the relation of truth and falsity. An alternative account is then provided involving three global stages: concrete operations, formal operations, and a postformal metaconstructivestage. Relative advantages and difficulties of the stage and sequence conceptualizations are discussed. Finally, three families of teaching strategy are distinguished, which emphasize, respectively: (a) social transmission of knowledge; (b) carefully sequenced empirical experience by the student; and (c) self-regulated cognitive activity of the student. It is argued on the basis of Piaget's theory that the last of these plays a crucial role in the construction of such logical reasoning strategies as those involved in testing hypotheses.

  16. Mechanisms of eyewitness suggestibility: tests of the explanatory role hypothesis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rindal, Eric J; Chrobak, Quin M; Zaragoza, Maria S; Weihing, Caitlin A

    2017-02-07

    In a recent paper, Chrobak and Zaragoza (Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, 142(3), 827-844, 2013) proposed the explanatory role hypothesis, which posits that the likelihood of developing false memories for post-event suggestions is a function of the explanatory function the suggestion serves. In support of this hypothesis, they provided evidence that participant-witnesses were especially likely to develop false memories for their forced fabrications when their fabrications helped to explain outcomes they had witnessed. In three experiments, we test the generality of the explanatory role hypothesis as a mechanism of eyewitness suggestibility by assessing whether this hypothesis can predict suggestibility errors in (a) situations where the post-event suggestions are provided by the experimenter (as opposed to fabricated by the participant), and (b) across a variety of memory measures and measures of recollective experience. In support of the explanatory role hypothesis, participants were more likely to subsequently freely report (E1) and recollect the suggestions as part of the witnessed event (E2, source test) when the post-event suggestion helped to provide a causal explanation for a witnessed outcome than when it did not serve this explanatory role. Participants were also less likely to recollect the suggestions as part of the witnessed event (on measures of subjective experience) when their explanatory strength had been reduced by the presence of an alternative explanation that could explain the same outcome (E3, source test + warning). Collectively, the results provide strong evidence that the search for explanatory coherence influences people's tendency to misremember witnessing events that were only suggested to them.

  17. On hypothesis testing with a partitioned random alternative

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2010-01-01

    It is common in statistical practice that one needs to make a choice among m + 1 mutually exclusive claims on distributions.When m=1,it is done by the (traditional) hypothesis test.In this paper,a generalization to the case m > 1 is proposed.The fundamental difference with the case m=1 is that the new alternative hypothesis is a partition of m multiple claims and is data-dependent.Data is used to decide which claim in the partition is to be tested as the alternative.Thus,a random alternative is involved.The conditional and overall type I errors of the proposed test are controlled at a given level,and this test can be used as a new solution for the general multiple test problem.Several classical problems,including the one-sample problem,model selection in multiple linear regression,and multi-factor analysis,are revisited,and new tests are provided correspondingly.Consequently,the famous two-sided t-test should be replaced by the proposed.

  18. Planned Hypothesis Tests Are Not Necessarily Exempt From Multiplicity Adjustment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrew V. Frane

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Scientific research often involves testing more than one hypothesis at a time, which can inflate the probability that a Type I error (false discovery will occur. To prevent this Type I error inflation, adjustments can be made to the testing procedure that compensate for the number of tests. Yet many researchers believe that such adjustments are inherently unnecessary if the tests were “planned” (i.e., if the hypotheses were specified before the study began. This longstanding misconception continues to be perpetuated in textbooks and continues to be cited in journal articles to justify disregard for Type I error inflation. I critically evaluate this myth and examine its rationales and variations. To emphasize the myth’s prevalence and relevance in current research practice, I provide examples from popular textbooks and from recent literature. I also make recommendations for improving research practice and pedagogy regarding this problem and regarding multiple testing in general.

  19. Testing competing forms of the Milankovitch hypothesis: A multivariate approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaufmann, Robert K.; Juselius, Katarina

    2016-02-01

    We test competing forms of the Milankovitch hypothesis by estimating the coefficients and diagnostic statistics for a cointegrated vector autoregressive model that includes 10 climate variables and four exogenous variables for solar insolation. The estimates are consistent with the physical mechanisms postulated to drive glacial cycles. They show that the climate variables are driven partly by solar insolation, determining the timing and magnitude of glaciations and terminations, and partly by internal feedback dynamics, pushing the climate variables away from equilibrium. We argue that the latter is consistent with a weak form of the Milankovitch hypothesis and that it should be restated as follows: internal climate dynamics impose perturbations on glacial cycles that are driven by solar insolation. Our results show that these perturbations are likely caused by slow adjustment between land ice volume and solar insolation. The estimated adjustment dynamics show that solar insolation affects an array of climate variables other than ice volume, each at a unique rate. This implies that previous efforts to test the strong form of the Milankovitch hypothesis by examining the relationship between solar insolation and a single climate variable are likely to suffer from omitted variable bias.

  20. A test of the domain-specific acculturation strategy hypothesis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Matthew J; Yang, Minji; Lim, Robert H; Hui, Kayi; Choi, Na-Yeun; Fan, Xiaoyan; Lin, Li-Ling; Grome, Rebekah E; Farrell, Jerome A; Blackmon, Sha'kema

    2013-01-01

    Acculturation literature has evolved over the past several decades and has highlighted the dynamic ways in which individuals negotiate experiences in multiple cultural contexts. The present study extends this literature by testing M. J. Miller and R. H. Lim's (2010) domain-specific acculturation strategy hypothesis-that individuals might use different acculturation strategies (i.e., assimilated, bicultural, separated, and marginalized strategies; J. W. Berry, 2003) across behavioral and values domains-in 3 independent cluster analyses with Asian American participants. Present findings supported the domain-specific acculturation strategy hypothesis as 67% to 72% of participants from 3 independent samples using different strategies across behavioral and values domains. Consistent with theory, a number of acculturation strategy cluster group differences emerged across generational status, acculturative stress, mental health symptoms, and attitudes toward seeking professional psychological help. Study limitations and future directions for research are discussed.

  1. Reliability Evaluation of Concentric Butterfly Valve Using Statistical Hypothesis Test

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chang, Mu Seong; Choi, Jong Sik; Choi, Byung Oh; Kim, Do Sik [Korea Institute of Machinery and Materials, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-12-15

    A butterfly valve is a type of flow-control device typically used to regulate a fluid flow. This paper presents an estimation of the shape parameter of the Weibull distribution, characteristic life, and B10 life for a concentric butterfly valve based on a statistical analysis of the reliability test data taken before and after the valve improvement. The difference in the shape and scale parameters between the existing and improved valves is reviewed using a statistical hypothesis test. The test results indicate that the shape parameter of the improved valve is similar to that of the existing valve, and that the scale parameter of the improved valve is found to have increased. These analysis results are particularly useful for a reliability qualification test and the determination of the service life cycles.

  2. A Test of the Neutron Star Hypothesis for Fomalhaut b

    OpenAIRE

    Poppenhaeger, K.; Auchettl, K.; Wolk, S. J.

    2017-01-01

    Fomalhaut b is a directly imaged object in the debris disk of the star Fomalhaut. It has been hypothesized to be a planet, however there are issues with the observed colours of the object that do not fit planetary models. An alternative hypothesis is that the object is a neutron star in the near fore- or background of Fomalhaut's disk. We test if Fomalhaut b could be a neutron star using X-ray observations with Chandra's HRC-I instrument in the energy range of 0.08-10 keV. We do not detect X-...

  3. Water Pollution Detection Based on Hypothesis Testing in Sensor Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xu Luo

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Water pollution detection is of great importance in water conservation. In this paper, the water pollution detection problems of the network and of the node in sensor networks are discussed. The detection problems in both cases of the distribution of the monitoring noise being normal and nonnormal are considered. The pollution detection problems are analyzed based on hypothesis testing theory firstly; then, the specific detection algorithms are given. Finally, two implementation examples are given to illustrate how the proposed detection methods are used in the water pollution detection in sensor networks and prove the effectiveness of the proposed detection methods.

  4. Testing the rate isomorphy hypothesis using five statistical methods

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Xian-Ju Kuang; Megha N. Parajulee2+,; Pei-Jian Shi; Feng Ge; Fang-Sen Xue

    2012-01-01

    Organisms are said to be in developmental rate isomorphy when the proportions of developmental stage durations are unaffected by temperature.Comprehensive stage-specific developmental data were generated on the cabbage beetle,Colaphellus bowringi Baly (Coleoptera:Chrysomelidae),at eight temperatures ranging from 16℃ to 30℃ (in 2℃ increments) and five analytical methods were used to test the rate isomorphy hypothesis,including:(i) direct comparison of lower developmental thresholds with standard errors based on the traditional linear equation describing developmental rate as the linear function of temperature; (ii) analysis of covariance to compare the lower developmental thresholds of different stages based on the Ikemoto-Takai linear equation; (iii)testing the significance of the slope item in the regression line of arcsin(√P) versus temperature,where p is the ratio of the developmental duration of a particular developmental stage to the entire pre-imaginal developmental duration for one insect or mite species; (iv)analysis of variance to test for significant differences between the ratios of developmental stage durations to that of pre-imaginal development; and (v) checking whether there is an element less than a given level of significance in the p-value matrix of rotating regression line.The results revealed no significant difference among the lower developmental thresholds or among the aforementioned ratios,and thus convincingly confirmed the rate isomorphy hypothesis.

  5. The efficient market hypothesis: problems with interpretations of empirical tests

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Denis Alajbeg

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Despite many “refutations” in empirical tests, the efficient market hypothesis (EMH remains the central concept of financial economics. The EMH’s resistance to the results of empirical testing emerges from the fact that the EMH is not a falsifiable theory. Its axiomatic definition shows how asset prices would behave under assumed conditions. Testing for this price behavior does not make much sense as the conditions in the financial markets are much more complex than the simplified conditions of perfect competition, zero transaction costs and free information used in the formulation of the EMH. Some recent developments within the tradition of the adaptive market hypothesis are promising regarding development of a falsifiable theory of price formation in financial markets, but are far from giving assurance that we are approaching a new formulation. The most that can be done in the meantime is to be very cautious while interpreting the empirical evidence that is presented as “testing” the EMH.

  6. Sequential hypothesis testing with spatially correlated presence-absence data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    DePalma, Elijah; Jeske, Daniel R; Lara, Jesus R; Hoddle, Mark

    2012-06-01

    A pest management decision to initiate a control treatment depends upon an accurate estimate of mean pest density. Presence-absence sampling plans significantly reduce sampling efforts to make treatment decisions by using the proportion of infested leaves to estimate mean pest density in lieu of counting individual pests. The use of sequential hypothesis testing procedures can significantly reduce the number of samples required to make a treatment decision. Here we construct a mean-proportion relationship for Oligonychus perseae Tuttle, Baker, and Abatiello, a mite pest of avocados, from empirical data, and develop a sequential presence-absence sampling plan using Bartlett's sequential test procedure. Bartlett's test can accommodate pest population models that contain nuisance parameters that are not of primary interest. However, it requires that population measurements be independent, which may not be realistic because of spatial correlation of pest densities across trees within an orchard. We propose to mitigate the effect of spatial correlation in a sequential sampling procedure by using a tree-selection rule (i.e., maximin) that sequentially selects each newly sampled tree to be maximally spaced from all other previously sampled trees. Our proposed presence-absence sampling methodology applies Bartlett's test to a hypothesis test developed using an empirical mean-proportion relationship coupled with a spatial, statistical model of pest populations, with spatial correlation mitigated via the aforementioned tree-selection rule. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed methodology over a range of parameter estimates appropriate for densities of O. perseae that would be observed in avocado orchards in California.

  7. Testing the modernization hypothesis and the socialist ideology hypothesis : a comparative sibling analysis of educational attainment and occupational status

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sieben, Inge; Graaf, Paul M. de

    2001-01-01

    In this study, we present a comparative sibling analysis. This enables us to test two major social mobility hypotheses, i.e. the modernization hypothesis and the socialist ideology hypothesis. We employ survey data on brothers in England, Hungary, the Netherlands, Scotland, Spain, and the USA, cover

  8. Image feature localization by multiple hypothesis testing of Gabor features.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ilonen, Jarmo; Kamarainen, Joni-Kristian; Paalanen, Pekka; Hamouz, Miroslav; Kittler, Josef; Kälviäinen, Heikki

    2008-03-01

    Several novel and particularly successful object and object category detection and recognition methods based on image features, local descriptions of object appearance, have recently been proposed. The methods are based on a localization of image features and a spatial constellation search over the localized features. The accuracy and reliability of the methods depend on the success of both tasks: image feature localization and spatial constellation model search. In this paper, we present an improved algorithm for image feature localization. The method is based on complex-valued multi resolution Gabor features and their ranking using multiple hypothesis testing. The algorithm provides very accurate local image features over arbitrary scale and rotation. We discuss in detail issues such as selection of filter parameters, confidence measure, and the magnitude versus complex representation, and show on a large test sample how these influence the performance. The versatility and accuracy of the method is demonstrated on two profoundly different challenging problems (faces and license plates).

  9. Hypothesis Testing for Automated Community Detection in Networks

    CERN Document Server

    Bickel, Peter J

    2013-01-01

    Community detection in networks is a key exploratory tool with applications in a diverse set of areas, ranging from finding communities in social and biological networks to identifying link farms in the World Wide Web. The problem of finding communities or clusters in a network has received much attention from statistics, physics and computer science. However, most clustering algorithms assume knowledge of the number of clusters k. In this paper we propose to automatically determine k in a graph generated from a Stochastic Blockmodel. Our main contribution is twofold; first, we theoretically establish the limiting distribution of the principal eigenvalue of the suitably centered and scaled adjacency matrix, and use that distribution for our hypothesis test. Secondly, we use this test to design a recursive bipartitioning algorithm. Using quantifiable classification tasks on real world networks with ground truth, we show that our algorithm outperforms existing probabilistic models for learning overlapping clust...

  10. A Highest Order Hypothesis Compatibility Test for Monocular SLAM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edmundo Guerra

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available Simultaneous Location and Mapping (SLAM is a key problem to solve in order to build truly autonomous mobile robots. SLAM with a unique camera, or monocular SLAM, is probably one of the most complex SLAM variants, based entirely on a bearing-only sensor working over six DOF. The monocular SLAM method developed in this work is based on the Delayed Inverse-Depth (DI-D Feature Initialization, with the contribution of a new data association batch validation technique, the Highest Order Hypothesis Compatibility Test, HOHCT. The Delayed Inverse-Depth technique is used to initialize new features in the system and defines a single hypothesis for the initial depth of features with the use of a stochastic technique of triangulation. The introduced HOHCT method is based on the evaluation of statistically compatible hypotheses and a search algorithm designed to exploit the strengths of the Delayed Inverse- Depth technique to achieve good performance results. This work presents the HOHCT with a detailed formulation of the monocular DI-D SLAM problem. The performance of the proposed HOHCT is validated with experimental results, in both indoor and outdoor environments, while its costs are compared with other popular approaches.

  11. A direct communication proposal to test the Zoo Hypothesis

    CERN Document Server

    de Magalhaes, Joao Pedro

    2015-01-01

    Whether we are alone in the universe is one of the greatest mysteries facing humankind. Given the >100 billion stars in our galaxy, many have argued that it is statistically unlikely that life, including intelligent life, has not emerged anywhere else. The lack of any sign of extraterrestrial intelligence, even though on a cosmic timescale extraterrestrial civilizations would have enough time to cross the galaxy, is known as Fermi's Paradox. One possible explanation for Fermi's Paradox is the Zoo Hypothesis which states that one or more extraterrestrial civilizations know of our existence and can reach us, but have chosen not to disturb us or even make their existence known to us. I propose here a proactive test of the Zoo Hypothesis. Specifically, I propose to send a message using television and radio channels to any extraterrestrial civilization(s) that might be listening and inviting them to respond. Even though I accept this is unlikely to be successful in the sense of resulting in a response from extrate...

  12. A Highest Order Hypothesis Compatibility Test for Monocular SLAM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edmundo Guerra

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available Simultaneous Location and Mapping (SLAM is a key problem to solve in order to build truly autonomous mobile robots. SLAM with a unique camera, or monocular SLAM, is probably one of the most complex SLAM variants, based entirely on a bearing-only sensor working over six DOF. The monocular SLAM method developed in this work is based on the Delayed Inverse-Depth (DI-D Feature Initialization, with the contribution of a new data association batch validation technique, the Highest Order Hypothesis Compatibility Test, HOHCT. The Delayed Inverse-Depth technique is used to initialize new features in the system and defines a single hypothesis for the initial depth of features with the use of a stochastic technique of triangulation. The introduced HOHCT method is based on the evaluation of statistically compatible hypotheses and a search algorithm designed to exploit the strengths of the Delayed Inverse-Depth technique to achieve good performance results. This work presents the HOHCT with a detailed formulation of the monocular DI-D SLAM problem. The performance of the proposed HOHCT is validated with experimental results, in both indoor and outdoor environments, while its costs are compared with other popular approaches.

  13. Testing the implicit processing hypothesis of precognitive dream experience.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valášek, Milan; Watt, Caroline; Hutton, Jenny; Neill, Rebecca; Nuttall, Rachel; Renwick, Grace

    2014-08-01

    Seemingly precognitive (prophetic) dreams may be a result of one's unconscious processing of environmental cues and having an implicit inference based on these cues manifest itself in one's dreams. We present two studies exploring this implicit processing hypothesis of precognitive dream experience. Study 1 investigated the relationship between implicit learning, transliminality, and precognitive dream belief and experience. Participants completed the Serial Reaction Time task and several questionnaires. We predicted a positive relationship between the variables. With the exception of relationships between transliminality and precognitive dream belief and experience, this prediction was not supported. Study 2 tested the hypothesis that differences in the ability to notice subtle cues explicitly might account for precognitive dream beliefs and experiences. Participants completed a modified version of the flicker paradigm. We predicted a negative relationship between the ability to explicitly detect changes and precognitive dream variables. This relationship was not found. There was also no relationship between precognitive dream belief and experience and implicit change detection. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. Decentralized Hypothesis Testing in Energy Harvesting Wireless Sensor Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tarighati, Alla; Gross, James; Jalden, Joakim

    2017-09-01

    We consider the problem of decentralized hypothesis testing in a network of energy harvesting sensors, where sensors make noisy observations of a phenomenon and send quantized information about the phenomenon towards a fusion center. The fusion center makes a decision about the present hypothesis using the aggregate received data during a time interval. We explicitly consider a scenario under which the messages are sent through parallel access channels towards the fusion center. To avoid limited lifetime issues, we assume each sensor is capable of harvesting all the energy it needs for the communication from the environment. Each sensor has an energy buffer (battery) to save its harvested energy for use in other time intervals. Our key contribution is to formulate the problem of decentralized detection in a sensor network with energy harvesting devices. Our analysis is based on a queuing-theoretic model for the battery and we propose a sensor decision design method by considering long term energy management at the sensors. We show how the performance of the system changes for different battery capacities. We then numerically show how our findings can be used in the design of sensor networks with energy harvesting sensors.

  15. Testing the activitystat hypothesis: a randomised controlled trial protocol

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gomersall Sjaan

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The activitystat hypothesis proposes that when physical activity or energy expenditure is increased or decreased in one domain, there will be a compensatory change in another domain to maintain an overall, stable level of physical activity or energy expenditure. To date, there has been no experimental study primarily designed to test the activitystat hypothesis in adults. The aim of this trial is to determine the effect of two different imposed exercise loads on total daily energy expenditure and physical activity levels. Methods This study will be a randomised, multi-arm, parallel controlled trial. Insufficiently active adults (as determined by the Active Australia survey aged 18–60 years old will be recruited for this study (n=146. Participants must also satisfy the Sports Medicine Australia Pre-Exercise Screening System and must weigh less than 150 kg. Participants will be randomly assigned to one of three groups using a computer-generated allocation sequence. Participants in the Moderate exercise group will receive an additional 150 minutes of moderate to vigorous physical activity per week for six weeks, and those in the Extensive exercise group will receive an additional 300 minutes of moderate to vigorous physical activity per week for six weeks. Exercise targets will be accumulated through both group and individual exercise sessions monitored by heart rate telemetry. Control participants will not be given any instructions regarding lifestyle. The primary outcome measures are activity energy expenditure (doubly labeled water and physical activity (accelerometry. Secondary measures will include resting metabolic rate via indirect calorimetry, use of time, maximal oxygen consumption and several anthropometric and physiological measures. Outcome measures will be conducted at baseline (zero weeks, mid- and end-intervention (three and six weeks with three (12 weeks and six month (24 week follow-up. All assessors will be

  16. Evolution of viviparity in warm-climate lizards: an experimental test of the maternal manipulation hypothesis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ji, X; Lin, C-X; Lin, L-H; Qiu, Q-B; DU, Y

    2007-05-01

    The maternal manipulation hypothesis for the evolution of reptilian viviparity has been claimed to apply to any situation where gravid females are able to maintain body temperatures different from those available in external nests, but empirical data that support this hypothesis are very limited. Here, we tested this hypothesis using gravid females of a warm-climate lizard, Mabuya multifasciata, by subjecting them to five thermal regimes for the whole gestation period. We found gravid females selected lower body temperatures and thermoregulated more precisely than did nongravid females. Offspring produced in different treatments differed in head size, limb length and sprint speed, but not in overall body size or mass. Variation in morphological traits of offspring was induced primarily by extreme temperatures. Sprint speed of offspring was more likely affected by the mean but not by the variance of gestation temperatures. Gravid females maintained more stable body temperatures than did nongravid females not because these temperatures resulted in the optimization of offspring phenotypes but because the range of temperatures optimal for embryonic development was relatively narrow. Our data conform to the main predictions from the maternal manipulation hypothesis that females should adjust thermoregulation during pregnancy to provide optimal thermal conditions for developing embryos and that phenotypic traits forged by maternal thermoregulation should enhance offspring fitness.

  17. Persistent Confusions about Hypothesis Testing in the Social Sciences

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christopher Thron

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper analyzes common confusions involving basic concepts in statistical hypothesis testing. One-third of the social science statistics textbooks examined in the study contained false statements about significance level and/or p-value. We infer that a large proportion of social scientists are being miseducated about these concepts. We analyze the causes of these persistent misunderstandings, and conclude that the conventional terminology is prone to abuse because it does not clearly represent the conditional nature of probabilities and events involved. We argue that modifications in terminology, as well as the explicit introduction of conditional probability concepts and notation into the statistics curriculum in the social sciences, are necessary to prevent the persistence of these errors.

  18. Generalized Hypergeometric Ensembles: Statistical Hypothesis Testing in Complex Networks

    CERN Document Server

    Casiraghi, Giona; Scholtes, Ingo; Schweitzer, Frank

    2016-01-01

    Statistical ensembles define probability spaces of all networks consistent with given aggregate statistics and have become instrumental in the analysis of relational data on networked systems. Their numerical and analytical study provides the foundation for the inference of topological patterns, the definition of network-analytic measures, as well as for model selection and statistical hypothesis testing. Contributing to the foundation of these important data science techniques, in this article we introduce generalized hypergeometric ensembles, a framework of analytically tractable statistical ensembles of finite, directed and weighted networks. This framework can be interpreted as a generalization of the classical configuration model, which is commonly used to randomly generate networks with a given degree sequence or distribution. Our generalization rests on the introduction of dyadic link propensities, which capture the degree-corrected tendencies of pairs of nodes to form edges between each other. Studyin...

  19. Evidence for the morphological constraint hypothesis and optimal offspring size theory in the Mexican mud turtle (Kinosternon integrum).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Macip-Ríos, Rodrigo; Brauer-Robleda, Pablo; Casas-Andreu, Gustavo; Arias-Cisneros, María de Lourdes; Sustaita-Rodríguez, Víctor Hugo

    2012-01-01

    Optimal offspring size theory states that natural selection should balance reproductive output by optimizing between offspring size and offspring number. If a species has evolved an optimal offspring size, the fitness of larger females should be increased by simply producing more offspring of an optimum size. In contrast, when offspring size is not optimized, the morphological constraint hypothesis may apply, and in this case, maternal fitness is increased by producing the greatest number of the largest offspring that mothers are physically capable of producing. We used a log-log allometric regression approach on clutch size, egg size, and body size data to test the application of optimal offspring size theory and the morphological constraint hypothesis in the Mexican mud turtle (Kinosternon integrum) in southern Mexico. Our results indicate that this turtle seems to follow the morphological constraint hypothesis when all data are analyzed together, but when data are divided between small ( 140 mm plastron length), optimal offspring (egg) size theory was supported only in large females, while the morphological constraint hypothesis was supported in small females. Our results thus indicate that K. integrum females may increase their fitness in two different, size-dependent ways as they grow from size at sexual maturity to maximum body size.

  20. Habitat fragmentation, vole population fluctuations, and the ROMPA hypothesis: An experimental test using model landscapes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Batzli, George O

    2016-11-01

    Increased habitat fragmentation leads to smaller size of habitat patches and to greater distance between patches. The ROMPA hypothesis (ratio of optimal to marginal patch area) uniquely links vole population fluctuations to the composition of the landscape. It states that as ROMPA decreases (fragmentation increases), vole population fluctuations will increase (including the tendency to display multi-annual cycles in abundance) because decreased proportions of optimal habitat result in greater population declines and longer recovery time after a harsh season. To date, only comparative observations in the field have supported the hypothesis. This paper reports the results of the first experimental test. I used prairie voles, Microtus ochrogaster, and mowed grassland to create model landscapes with 3 levels of ROMPA (high with 25% mowed, medium with 50% mowed and low with 75% mowed). As ROMPA decreased, distances between patches of favorable habitat (high cover) increased owing to a greater proportion of unfavorable (mowed) habitat. Results from the first year with intensive live trapping indicated that the preconditions for operation of the hypothesis existed (inversely density dependent emigration and, as ROMPA decreased, increased per capita mortality and decreased per capita movement between optimal patches). Nevertheless, contrary to the prediction of the hypothesis that populations in landscapes with high ROMPA should have the lowest variability, 5 years of trapping indicated that variability was lowest with medium ROMPA. The design of field experiments may never be perfect, but these results indicate that the ROMPA hypothesis needs further rigorous testing. © 2016 International Society of Zoological Sciences, Institute of Zoology/Chinese Academy of Sciences and John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd.

  1. A hypothesis on improving foreign accents by optimizing variability in vocal learning brain circuits.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simmonds, Anna J

    2015-01-01

    Rapid vocal motor learning is observed when acquiring a language in early childhood, or learning to speak another language later in life. Accurate pronunciation is one of the hardest things for late learners to master and they are almost always left with a non-native accent. Here, I propose a novel hypothesis that this accent could be improved by optimizing variability in vocal learning brain circuits during learning. Much of the neurobiology of human vocal motor learning has been inferred from studies on songbirds. Jarvis (2004) proposed the hypothesis that as in songbirds there are two pathways in humans: one for learning speech (the striatal vocal learning pathway), and one for production of previously learnt speech (the motor pathway). Learning new motor sequences necessary for accurate non-native pronunciation is challenging and I argue that in late learners of a foreign language the vocal learning pathway becomes inactive prematurely. The motor pathway is engaged once again and learners maintain their original native motor patterns for producing speech, resulting in speaking with a foreign accent. Further, I argue that variability in neural activity within vocal motor circuitry generates vocal variability that supports accurate non-native pronunciation. Recent theoretical and experimental work on motor learning suggests that variability in the motor movement is necessary for the development of expertise. I propose that there is little trial-by-trial variability when using the motor pathway. When using the vocal learning pathway variability gradually increases, reflecting an exploratory phase in which learners try out different ways of pronouncing words, before decreasing and stabilizing once the "best" performance has been identified. The hypothesis proposed here could be tested using behavioral interventions that optimize variability and engage the vocal learning pathway for longer, with the prediction that this would allow learners to develop new motor

  2. A hypothesis on improving foreign accents by optimizing variability in vocal learning brain circuits

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anna J Simmonds

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Rapid vocal motor learning is observed when acquiring a language in early childhood, or learning to speak another language later in life. Accurate pronunciation is one of the hardest things for late learners to master and they are almost always left with a non-native accent. Here I propose a novel hypothesis that this accent could be improved by optimizing variability in vocal learning brain circuits during learning. Much of the neurobiology of human vocal motor learning has been inferred from studies on songbirds. Jarvis (2004 proposed the hypothesis that as in songbirds there are two pathways in humans: one for learning speech (the striatal vocal learning pathway, and one for production of previously learnt speech (the motor pathway. Learning new motor sequences necessary for accurate non-native pronunciation is challenging and I argue that in late learners of a foreign language the vocal learning pathway becomes inactive prematurely. The motor pathway is engaged once again and learners maintain their original native motor patterns for producing speech, resulting in speaking with a foreign accent. Further, I argue that variability in neural activity within vocal motor circuitry generates vocal variability that supports accurate non-native pronunciation. Recent theoretical and experimental work on motor learning suggests that variability in the motor movement is necessary for the development of expertise. I propose that there is little trial-by-trial variability when using the motor pathway. When using the vocal learning pathway variability gradually increases, reflecting an exploratory phase in which learners try out different ways of pronouncing words, before decreasing and stabilizing once the ‘best’ performance has been identified. The hypothesis proposed here could be tested using behavioral interventions that optimize variability and engage the vocal learning pathway for longer, with the prediction that this would allow learners to

  3. Risk Based Optimal Fatigue Testing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Faber, M.H.; Kroon, I.B.

    1992-01-01

    Optimal fatigue life testing of materials is considered. Based on minimization of the total expected costs of a mechanical component a strategy is suggested to determine the optimal stress range levels for which additional experiments are to be performed together with an optimal value of the maxi......Optimal fatigue life testing of materials is considered. Based on minimization of the total expected costs of a mechanical component a strategy is suggested to determine the optimal stress range levels for which additional experiments are to be performed together with an optimal value...

  4. Parameter estimation and hypothesis testing in linear models

    CERN Document Server

    Koch, Karl-Rudolf

    1999-01-01

    The necessity to publish the second edition of this book arose when its third German edition had just been published. This second English edition is there­ fore a translation of the third German edition of Parameter Estimation and Hypothesis Testing in Linear Models, published in 1997. It differs from the first English edition by the addition of a new chapter on robust estimation of parameters and the deletion of the section on discriminant analysis, which has been more completely dealt with by the author in the book Bayesian In­ ference with Geodetic Applications, Springer-Verlag, Berlin Heidelberg New York, 1990. Smaller additions and deletions have been incorporated, to im­ prove the text, to point out new developments or to eliminate errors which became apparent. A few examples have been also added. I thank Springer-Verlag for publishing this second edition and for the assistance in checking the translation, although the responsibility of errors remains with the author. I also want to express my thanks...

  5. A test of the neutron star hypothesis for Fomalhaut b

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poppenhaeger, K.; Auchettl, K.; Wolk, S. J.

    2017-07-01

    Fomalhaut b is a directly imaged object in the debris disc of the star Fomalhaut. It has been hypothesized to be a planet; however, there are issues with the observed colours of the object that do not fit planetary models. An alternative hypothesis is that the object is a neutron star in the near fore- or background of Fomalhaut's disc. We test if Fomalhaut b could be a neutron star using X-ray observations with Chandra's HRC-I instrument in the energy range of 0.08-10 keV. We do not detect X-ray emission from either Fomalhaut b or the star Fomalhaut itself. Our non-detection corresponds to an upper limit on the X-ray flux of Fomalhaut b of FX X-ray upper limit of LX X-ray non-detection constrains the parameter space for a possible neutron star significantly, implying surface temperatures lower than 91 000 K and distances closer than 13.3 pc to the Solar system. In addition, we find that reflected starlight from the central star fits the available optical detections of Fomalhaut b; a smaller planet with a large ring system might explain such a scenario.

  6. Synthetic oxytocin and breastfeeding: reasons for testing an hypothesis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Odent, M R

    2013-11-01

    Synthetic oxytocin is widely used in developed countries and in emerging countries as well. It is the most common medical intervention in childbirth. A great variety of side effects are plausible. There are in particular theoretical reasons to test the hypothesis that the increasing incidence of breastfeeding difficulties and the frequent earlier than desired cessation of breastfeeding are related to the use of synthetic oxytocin during labour. There have already been some studies that tend to support this hypothesis. Four hundred of the 7465 children born in 2006 at the Carlos Haya University Hospital (Malaga, Spain) were randomly selected. By interviewing the mothers, information about feeding type and duration was obtained in 2011 for 316 children. Among the 189 children who were born after labours induced or augmented with synthetic oxytocin, the odds ratio for bottle-feeding was 1.451 and the odds ratio for withdrawal at 3 months was 2.294. In addition, the Battelle Developmental Inventory was used to assess at age five 148 children (84 born with synthetic oxytocin): the odds ratio for neuropsychological development disorders after use of oxytocin was 1.46. The main limitation of such a preliminary study is that in the context of a tertiary Spanish hospital the possible effects of synthetic oxytocin on the quality and duration of breastfeeding cannot be easily dissociated from the effects of other components of pharmacological assistance during labour, particularly epidural fentanyl (a synthetic opioid analgesic). This comment is valid for all studies exploring the side effects of synthetic oxytocin in obstetric units of developed countries, including explorations through videotapes of the effects of synthetic oxytocin on primitive neonatal reflexes. It is also valid for studies exploring the side effects of obstetric analgesia without taking into account the use of synthetic oxytocin. This is why we underline the importance of conducting such studies in

  7. A global test of the pollination syndrome hypothesis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ollerton, Jeff; Alarcón, Ruben; Waser, Nickolas M; Price, Mary V; Watts, Stella; Cranmer, Louise; Hingston, Andrew; Peter, Craig I; Rotenberry, John

    2009-06-01

    'Pollination syndromes' are suites of phenotypic traits hypothesized to reflect convergent adaptations of flowers for pollination by specific types of animals. They were first developed in the 1870s and honed during the mid 20th Century. In spite of this long history and their central role in organizing research on plant-pollinator interactions, the pollination syndromes have rarely been subjected to test. The syndromes were tested here by asking whether they successfully capture patterns of covariance of floral traits and predict the most common pollinators of flowers. Flowers in six communities from three continents were scored for expression of floral traits used in published descriptions of the pollination syndromes, and simultaneously the pollinators of as many species as possible were characterized. Ordination of flowers in a multivariate 'phenotype space' defined by the syndromes showed that almost no plant species fall within the discrete syndrome clusters. Furthermore, in approximately two-thirds of plant species, the most common pollinator could not be successfully predicted by assuming that each plant species belongs to the syndrome closest to it in phenotype space. The pollination syndrome hypothesis as usually articulated does not successfully describe the diversity of floral phenotypes or predict the pollinators of most plant species. Caution is suggested when using pollination syndromes for organizing floral diversity, or for inferring agents of floral adaptation. A fresh look at how traits of flowers and pollinators relate to visitation and pollen transfer is recommended, in order to determine whether axes can be identified that describe floral functional diversity more successfully than the traditional syndromes.

  8. A robust hypothesis test for the sensitive detection of constant speed radiation moving sources

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dumazert, Jonathan, E-mail: jonathan.dumazert@cea.fr [CEA, LIST, Laboratoire Capteurs Architectures Electroniques, 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette (France); Coulon, Romain; Kondrasovs, Vladimir; Boudergui, Karim; Moline, Yoann; Sannié, Guillaume; Gameiro, Jordan; Normand, Stéphane [CEA, LIST, Laboratoire Capteurs Architectures Electroniques, 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette (France); Méchin, Laurence [CNRS, UCBN, Groupe de Recherche en Informatique, Image, Automatique et Instrumentation de Caen, 14050 Caen (France)

    2015-09-21

    Radiation Portal Monitors are deployed in linear networks to detect radiological material in motion. As a complement to single and multichannel detection algorithms, inefficient under too low signal-to-noise ratios, temporal correlation algorithms have been introduced. Test hypothesis methods based on empirically estimated mean and variance of the signals delivered by the different channels have shown significant gain in terms of a tradeoff between detection sensitivity and false alarm probability. This paper discloses the concept of a new hypothesis test for temporal correlation detection methods, taking advantage of the Poisson nature of the registered counting signals, and establishes a benchmark between this test and its empirical counterpart. The simulation study validates that in the four relevant configurations of a pedestrian source carrier under respectively high and low count rate radioactive backgrounds, and a vehicle source carrier under the same respectively high and low count rate radioactive backgrounds, the newly introduced hypothesis test ensures a significantly improved compromise between sensitivity and false alarm. It also guarantees that the optimal coverage factor for this compromise remains stable regardless of signal-to-noise ratio variations between 2 and 0.8, therefore allowing the final user to parametrize the test with the sole prior knowledge of background amplitude.

  9. Counselor Hypothesis Testing Strategies: The Role of Initial Impressions and Self-Schema.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strohmer, Douglas C.; Chiodo, Anthony L.

    1984-01-01

    Presents two experiments concerning confirmatory bias in the way counselors collect data to test their hypotheses. Counselors were asked either to develop their own clinical hypothesis or were given a hypothesis to test. Confirmatory bias in hypothesis testing was not supported in either experiment. (JAC)

  10. Personal Hypothesis Testing: The Role of Consistency and Self-Schema.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strohmer, Douglas C.; And Others

    1988-01-01

    Studied how individuals test hypotheses about themselves. Examined extent to which Snyder's bias toward confirmation persists when negative or nonconsistent personal hypothesis is tested. Found negativity or positivity did not affect hypothesis testing directly, though hypothesis consistency did. Found cognitive schematic variable (vulnerability…

  11. Hypothesis tests for the detection of constant speed radiation moving sources

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dumazert, Jonathan; Coulon, Romain; Kondrasovs, Vladimir; Boudergui, Karim; Sannie, Guillaume; Gameiro, Jordan; Normand, Stephane [CEA, LIST, Laboratoire Capteurs Architectures Electroniques, 99 Gif-sur-Yvette, (France); Mechin, Laurence [CNRS, UCBN, Groupe de Recherche en Informatique, Image, Automatique et Instrumentation de Caen, 4050 Caen, (France)

    2015-07-01

    Radiation Portal Monitors are deployed in linear network to detect radiological material in motion. As a complement to single and multichannel detection algorithms, inefficient under too low signal to noise ratios, temporal correlation algorithms have been introduced. Test hypothesis methods based on empirically estimated mean and variance of the signals delivered by the different channels have shown significant gain in terms of a tradeoff between detection sensitivity and false alarm probability. This paper discloses the concept of a new hypothesis test for temporal correlation detection methods, taking advantage of the Poisson nature of the registered counting signals, and establishes a benchmark between this test and its empirical counterpart. The simulation study validates that in the four relevant configurations of a pedestrian source carrier under respectively high and low count rate radioactive background, and a vehicle source carrier under the same respectively high and low count rate radioactive background, the newly introduced hypothesis test ensures a significantly improved compromise between sensitivity and false alarm, while guaranteeing the stability of its optimization parameter regardless of signal to noise ratio variations between 2 to 0.8. (authors)

  12. A shift from significance test to hypothesis test through power analysis in medical research

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Singh Girish

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Medical research literature until recently, exhibited substantial dominance of the Fisher′s significance test approach of statistical inference concentrating more on probability of type I error over Neyman-Pearson′s hypothesis test considering both probability of type I and II error. Fisher′s approach dichotomises results into significant or not significant results with a P value. The Neyman-Pearson′s approach talks of acceptance or rejection of null hypothesis. Based on the same theory these two approaches deal with same objective and conclude in their own way. The advancement in computing techniques and availability of statistical software have resulted in increasing application of power calculations in medical research and thereby reporting the result of significance tests in the light of power of the test also. Significance test approach, when it incorporates power analysis contains the essence of hypothesis test approach. It may be safely argued that rising application of power analysis in medical research may have initiated a shift from Fisher′s significance test to Neyman-Pearson′s hypothesis test procedure.

  13. Testing the adaptive radiation hypothesis for the lemurs of Madagascar.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herrera, James P

    2017-01-01

    Lemurs, the diverse, endemic primates of Madagascar, are thought to represent a classic example of adaptive radiation. Based on the most complete phylogeny of living and extinct lemurs yet assembled, I tested predictions of adaptive radiation theory by estimating rates of speciation, extinction and adaptive phenotypic evolution. As predicted, lemur speciation rate exceeded that of their sister clade by nearly twofold, indicating the diversification dynamics of lemurs and mainland relatives may have been decoupled. Lemur diversification rates did not decline over time, however, as predicted by adaptive radiation theory. Optimal body masses diverged among dietary and activity pattern niches as lineages diversified into unique multidimensional ecospace. Based on these results, lemurs only partially fulfil the predictions of adaptive radiation theory, with phenotypic evolution corresponding to an 'early burst' of adaptive differentiation. The results must be interpreted with caution, however, because over the long evolutionary history of lemurs (approx. 50 million years), the 'early burst' signal of adaptive radiation may have been eroded by extinction.

  14. OS082. CHIPS-Child: Testing the developmental origins hypothesis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Magee, L A; Synnes, A

    2012-07-01

    CHIPS-Child is a natural test of the Developmental Origins of Health and Disease hypothesis (DOHaD) [1,2]. Reduced fetal growth rate is associated with adult cardiovascular risk markers (e.g., obesity) and disease [3,4]. Evidence worldwide indicates that this relationship is independent of birth weight. The leading theory describes 'developmental programming'in utero leading to permanent alteration of the fetal genome. While those changes are adaptive in utero, they may be maladaptive postnatally. To directly test, for the first time in humans, whether differential blood pressure (BP) control in pregnancy has developmental programming effects, independent of birth weight. We predict that, like famine or protein malnutrition, 'tight' (vs. 'less tight') control of maternal BP will be associated with fetal under-nutrition and effects will be consistent with developmental programming. CHIPS-Child is a parallel, ancillary study to the CHIPS randomized controlled trial (RCT). CHIPS is designed to determine whether 'less tight' control [target diastolic BP (dBP) 100mmHg] or 'tight' control [target dBP 85mmHg] of non-proteinuric hypertension in pregnancy is better for the baby without increasing maternal risk. CHIPS-Child will examine offspring of CHIPS participants non-invasively at 12m corrected post-gestational age (±2m) for anthropometry, hair cortisol, buccal swabs for epigenetic testing and a maternal questionnaire about infant feeding practices and background. Annual contact will be maintained in years 2-5 and will include annual parental measurement of the child's height, weight and waist circumference. CHIPS will recruit 1028 women. We estimate that 80% of CHIPS centres will participate in CHIPS-Child, approximately 97% of babies will survive, and 90% of children will be followed to 12m resulting in a sample size of 626. Power will be >80% to detect a between-group difference of ⩾0.25 in 'change in z-score for weight' between birth and 12m (2-sided alpha=0

  15. Cohabitation and Divorce in Canada: Testing the Selectivity Hypothesis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hall, David R.; Zhao, John Z.

    1995-01-01

    Investigated hypothesis that cohabitors are a select group in ways that predispose them to divorce. Found that premarital cohabitation was associated with a greater risk of divorce even after accounting for the effects of parental divorce, marital status of first spouse, age heterogamy, and the presence of stepchildren. (RJM)

  16. Harold Jeffreys’s default Bayes factor hypothesis tests : Explanation, extension, and application in psychology

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ly, A.; Verhagen, J.; Wagenmakers, E.-J.

    2016-01-01

    Harold Jeffreys pioneered the development of default Bayes factor hypothesis tests for standard statistical problems. Using Jeffreys’s Bayes factor hypothesis tests, researchers can grade the decisiveness of the evidence that the data provide for a point null hypothesis H0H0 versus a composite alter

  17. Effectiveness of Positive Hypothesis Testing in Inductive and Deductive Rule Learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laughlin; Bonner; Altermatt

    1999-02-01

    In a positive hypothesis test a person generates or examines evidence that is expected to have the property of interest if the hypothesis is correct, whereas in a negative hypothesis test a person generates or examines evidence that is not expected to have the property of interest if the hypothesis is correct. Two experiments assessed the effectiveness of positive versus negative hypothesis tests on inductive and deductive rule learning problems. In Experiment 1 problem solvers induced a rule by proposing hypotheses and selecting evidence in the eight conditions of a factorial design defined by instructions to use a positive or negative hypothesis test on each of trials 1-5, 6-10, and 11-15. Instructions to use positive tests resulted in more examples, fewer strategic hypotheses, and a higher weighted score for five types of hypotheses than instructions to use negative tests. In Experiment 2 problem solvers identified 1 of a possible 1296 correct rules in the deductive rule learning game Mastermind. When problems were classified in the 16 possible combinations of positive or negative hypothesis tests on trials 2, 3, 4, and 5 there were fewer trials to solution for positive tests on each of the four trials and fewer trials to solution with increasing positive tests. We conclude that positive hypothesis tests are generally more effective than negative hypothesis tests in both inductive and deductive rule learning. Copyright 1999 Academic Press.

  18. Towards a general theory of optimal testing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pericchi, Luis R. G.; Pereira, Carlos A. B.

    2012-10-01

    In Pericchi and Pereira [1] it is argued against the traditional way on which testing is based on fixed significance level, either using p-values (with fixed levels of evidence, like the 5% rule) or α values. We instead, follow an approach put forward by [2], on which an optimal test is chosen by minimizing type I and type II errors. Morris DeGroot in his authoritative book [2], Probability and Statistics 2nd Edition, stated that it is more reasonable to minimize a weighted sum of Type I and Type II error than to specify a value of type I error and then minimize Type II error. He showed it beyond reasonable doubt, but only in the very restrictive scenario of simple VS simple hypothesis, and it is not clear how to generalize it. We propose here a very natural generalization for composite hypothesis, by using general weight functions in the parameter space. This was also the position taken by [3, 4, 5]. We show, in a parallel manner to DeGroot's proof and Pereira's discussion, that the optimal test statistics are Bayes Factors, when the weighting functions are priors with mass on the whole parameter space. On the other hand when the weight functions are point masses in specific parameter values of practical significance, then a procedure is designed for which the sum of Type I error and Type II error in the specified points of practical significance is minimized. This can be seen as bridge between Bayesian Statistics and a new version of Hypothesis testing, more in line with statistical consistency and scientific insight.

  19. Testing the Weak-Form Market Efficiency Hypothesis for Canadian and Chinese Stock

    OpenAIRE

    Hou, Bin; Sun, Mingyang

    2014-01-01

    The main empirical test methods for Weak-form efficiency market hypothesis can be divided into two categories: one is to test the randomness of stock prices; the other is to test the invalidity of technical analysis, which testing the predictability of earnings. This study mainly focused on the first category.To examining the hypothesis whether Canadian and Chinese stock markets are efficient in the weak form, two types of test are conducted. They are parametric and non-parametric tests. For ...

  20. Testing Kuznets’ Hypothesis for Russian Regions: Trends and Interpretations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    James R. Alm

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The paper established a number of "stylized facts", one of which is a confirmation of the S. Kuznets’ hypothesis of the nonlinear dependence between the degree of inequality in income distribution and welfare economic systems on the example of a group of Russian regions for the period 2002–2012. It is shown that, for a given sample, the welfare and economic growth factors amplify their influence on inequality in income distribution in the post-crisis period. The monotonous growth of income inequality which was observed before the crisis of 2008 is slowing in the process of raising the per capita gross regional product (GRP during the post-crisis period, and for the foreseeable future, in some regions, its direction can be reversed, while maintaining a trend of socio-economic development. Despite the persistence over time of a convex nature of S. Kuznets’ curve for Russian regional data, its parameters changed during the reporting 2002–2012 period. The maximum point of the curve shifts to the left, its convexity increases. These facts indicate that the income inequality growth of the Russian regions’ as a result of growth of per capita GRP is slowing. For some regions in the post-crisis period, the income inequality does not grow with the growth of per capita GRP, or it even reduces. This fact can be attributed to the implementation of the Russian federal socially oriented projects and programs in recent years. The results can be used for the development of regional economic policy in order to regulate the level of income distribution inequality in the regions of Russia.

  1. New Tests of the Cluster Entropy Floor Hypothesis

    CERN Document Server

    McCarthy, I G; Balogh, M L; Holder, G P; Carthy, Ian G. Mc; Babul, Arif; Balogh, Michael L.; Holder, Gilbert P.

    2002-01-01

    Recent efforts to account for the observed X-ray luminosity - temperature relation of galaxy clusters has led to suggestions that the ICM has an apparent ``entropy floor'' at or above the level of 300 keV cm^2. Here, we propose new tests based on the thermal Sunyaev-Zeldovich effect and on the cluster gas mass - temperature trend (from X-ray data) to probe the level of excess entropy in the ICM. We show that these new tests lend further support to the case for a high entropy floor in massive clusters.

  2. Introduction to Permutation and Resampling-Based Hypothesis Tests

    Science.gov (United States)

    LaFleur, Bonnie J.; Greevy, Robert A.

    2009-01-01

    A resampling-based method of inference--permutation tests--is often used when distributional assumptions are questionable or unmet. Not only are these methods useful for obvious departures from parametric assumptions (e.g., normality) and small sample sizes, but they are also more robust than their parametric counterparts in the presences of…

  3. A paleointensity test of the geocentric axial dipole (GAD) hypothesis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Veikkolainen, Toni; Heimpel, Moritz; Evans, Michael E.; Pesonen, Lauri J.; Korhonen, Kimmo

    2017-04-01

    The geocentric axial dipole (GAD) model is central to many aspects of geophysics, including plate tectonics and paleoclimate. But its validity is by no means firmly established, particularly for the Precambrian. One test that has met with some success involves the distribution of paleomagnetic inclination angles. It works because any given field morphology has its own distinct probability distribution function (PDF) against which data compilations can be tested. Here, we investigate a second possible test using published paleointensity data. Once again, any given field morphology has a specific PDF of intensity. Likely field models consist of an underlying GAD on which is superimposed modest zonal quadrupole and octupole components. The corresponding paleointensity PDFs turn out to have more complicated shapes than their inclination counterparts, often having multiple maxima and minima. Given sufficient data, this complexity offers greater discrimination between models. In this paper, the potential of the paleointensity test is assessed using an extension of the PINT paleointensity database. We found it useful to analyse the Phanerozoic and Precambrian intervals separately. Despite the inherent limitations of this kind of analysis, a tripartite geodynamo with small zonal multipoles appears to be a good starting point on a way towards more fine-tuned models.

  4. Hypothesis testing in high-throughput screening for drug discovery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prummer, Michael

    2012-04-01

    Following the success of small-molecule high-throughput screening (HTS) in drug discovery, other large-scale screening techniques are currently revolutionizing the biological sciences. Powerful new statistical tools have been developed to analyze the vast amounts of data in DNA chip studies, but have not yet found their way into compound screening. In HTS, characterization of single-point hit lists is often done only in retrospect after the results of confirmation experiments are available. However, for prioritization, for optimal use of resources, for quality control, and for comparison of screens it would be extremely valuable to predict the rates of false positives and false negatives directly from the primary screening results. Making full use of the available information about compounds and controls contained in HTS results and replicated pilot runs, the Z score and from it the p value can be estimated for each measurement. Based on this consideration, we have applied the concept of p-value distribution analysis (PVDA), which was originally developed for gene expression studies, to HTS data. PVDA allowed prediction of all relevant error rates as well as the rate of true inactives, and excellent agreement with confirmation experiments was found.

  5. What Are Null Hypotheses? The Reasoning Linking Scientific and Statistical Hypothesis Testing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lawson, Anton E.

    2008-01-01

    We should dispense with use of the confusing term "null hypothesis" in educational research reports. To explain why the term should be dropped, the nature of, and relationship between, scientific and statistical hypothesis testing is clarified by explication of (a) the scientific reasoning used by Gregor Mendel in testing specific…

  6. Hypothesis testing using pairwise distances and associated kernels

    CERN Document Server

    Sejdinovic, Dino; Sriperumbudur, Bharath; Fukumizu, Kenji

    2012-01-01

    We provide a unifying framework linking two classes of statistics used in two-sample and independence testing: on the one hand, the energy distances and distance covariances from the statistics literature; on the other, distances between embeddings of distributions to reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces (RKHS), as established in machine learning. The equivalence holds when energy distances are computed with semimetrics of negative type, in which case a kernel may be defined such that the RKHS distance between distributions corresponds exactly to the energy distance. We determine the class of probability distributions for which kernels induced by semimetrics are characteristic (that is, for which embeddings of the distributions to an RKHS are injective). Finally, we investigate the performance of this family of kernels in two-sample and independence tests: we show in particular that the energy distance most commonly employed in statistics is just one member of a parametric family of kernels, and that other choic...

  7. P value and the theory of hypothesis testing: an explanation for new researchers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biau, David Jean; Jolles, Brigitte M; Porcher, Raphaël

    2010-03-01

    In the 1920s, Ronald Fisher developed the theory behind the p value and Jerzy Neyman and Egon Pearson developed the theory of hypothesis testing. These distinct theories have provided researchers important quantitative tools to confirm or refute their hypotheses. The p value is the probability to obtain an effect equal to or more extreme than the one observed presuming the null hypothesis of no effect is true; it gives researchers a measure of the strength of evidence against the null hypothesis. As commonly used, investigators will select a threshold p value below which they will reject the null hypothesis. The theory of hypothesis testing allows researchers to reject a null hypothesis in favor of an alternative hypothesis of some effect. As commonly used, investigators choose Type I error (rejecting the null hypothesis when it is true) and Type II error (accepting the null hypothesis when it is false) levels and determine some critical region. If the test statistic falls into that critical region, the null hypothesis is rejected in favor of the alternative hypothesis. Despite similarities between the two, the p value and the theory of hypothesis testing are different theories that often are misunderstood and confused, leading researchers to improper conclusions. Perhaps the most common misconception is to consider the p value as the probability that the null hypothesis is true rather than the probability of obtaining the difference observed, or one that is more extreme, considering the null is true. Another concern is the risk that an important proportion of statistically significant results are falsely significant. Researchers should have a minimum understanding of these two theories so that they are better able to plan, conduct, interpret, and report scientific experiments.

  8. Testing the efficiency market hypothesis for the Colombian stock market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juan Benjamín Duarte-Duarte

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Uno de los supuestos básicos de los modelos de valoración de activos (CAPM y APT, es la eficiencia de los mercados. El presente trabajo busca comprobar este requisito en su forma débil, tanto al Índice General de la Bolsa de Valores de Colombia como a las acciones más representativas del mercado colombiano. Para tal fin se comprueba por diferentes métodos estadísticos que las series bursátiles no siguen el patrón de una distribución normal. Además, al indagar sobre la eficiencia del mercado colombiano, mediante los test de Rachas, BDS, LB y Bartlett, se evidencia no aleatoriedad en los principales activos financieros con excepción de Ecopetrol, mientras que para el IGBC se observa una mejora en la eficiencia del mercado del 2008 a 2010, periodo que coincide con el inicio de la crisis económica mundial.

  9. Applications of abduction: hypothesis testing of neuroendocrinological qualitative compartmental models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Menzies, T; Compton, P

    1997-06-01

    It is difficult to assess hypothetical models in poorly measured domains such as neuroendocrinology. Without a large library of observations to constrain inference, the execution of such incomplete models implies making assumptions. Mutually exclusive assumptions must be kept in separate worlds. We define a general abductive multiple-worlds engine that assesses such models by (i) generating the worlds and (ii) tests if these worlds contain known behaviour. World generation is constrained via the use of relevant envisionment. We describe QCM, a modeling language for compartmental models that can be processed by this inference engine. This tool has been used to find faults in theories published in international refereed journals; i.e. QCM can detect faults which are invisible to other methods. The generality and computational limits of this approach are discussed. In short, this approach is applicable to any representation that can be compiled into an and-or graph, provided the graphs are not too big or too intricate (fanout < 7).

  10. Different meaning of the p-value in exploratory and confirmatory hypothesis testing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gerke, Oke; Høilund-Carlsen, Poul Flemming; Vach, Werner

    2011-01-01

    The outcome of clinical studies is often reduced to the statistical significance of results by indicating a p-value below the 5% significance level. Hypothesis testing and, through that, the p-value is commonly used, but their meaning is frequently misinterpreted in clinical research. The concept...... of hypothesis testing is explained and some pitfalls including those of multiple testing are given. The conceptual difference between exploratory and confirmatory hypothesis testing is discussed, and a better use of p-values, which includes presenting p-values with two or three decimals, is suggested....

  11. Debates—Hypothesis testing in hydrology: Pursuing certainty versus pursuing uberty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baker, Victor R.

    2017-03-01

    Modern hydrology places nearly all its emphasis on science-as-knowledge, the hypotheses of which are increasingly expressed as physical models, whose predictions are tested by correspondence to quantitative data sets. Though arguably appropriate for applications of theory to engineering and applied science, the associated emphases on truth and degrees of certainty are not optimal for the productive and creative processes that facilitate the fundamental advancement of science as a process of discovery. The latter requires an investigative approach, where the goal is uberty, a kind of fruitfulness of inquiry, in which the abductive mode of inference adds to the much more commonly acknowledged modes of deduction and induction. The resulting world-directed approach to hydrology provides a valuable complement to the prevailing hypothesis- (theory-) directed paradigm.Plain Language SummaryThis commentary suggests that a world-directed, investigative approach to hydrology may serve as a productive complement to the prevailing hypothesis- (theory-) directed, approaches. The emphasis of the former on discovery has the potential to be transformative for investigative hydrology.

  12. Testing the Late-Veneer hypothesis with selenium isotopes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Labidi, J.; Koenig, S.; Bennett, N.; Kurzawa, T.; Aierken, E.; Shahar, A.; Schoenberg, R.

    2016-12-01

    Selenium (Se) is a siderophile element displaying an excess abundance in Earth's mantle compared to experimental predictions [1], which may be attributed to the Late-Veneer. As Se is also volatile, testing the late-veneer addition of Se can constrain the origin of other volatile elements on Earth. Here we combine high-precision Se isotope measurements of metal-silicate partitioning experiments and chondrites to assess whether planetary differentiation could leave a measurable Se isotopic signature on planetary mantles. We performed Se isotopic measurements of 5 metal-silicate partitioning experiments and 20 chondrites of all major classes. Experiments were conducted at 1 GPa and 1650 C for 1 to 4 hours using the piston-cylinder apparatus at Carnegie's Geophysical Laboratory. After wet chemistry, data were obtained on a ThermoFisher Scientific™ NeptunePlus MC-ICP-MS at the University of Tübingen with a 74Se/77Se double spike technique. δ82/76Se values are given relative to NIST SRM-3149 and the external reproducibility calculated from duplicate meteorite analyses is ≤ 0.1‰ (2 s.d.). Chondrites vary over a 0.8‰ range of δ82/76Se values. CIs and CMs show evidence for heavier 82Se/76Se ratios, likely due to mixing processes in the proto-planetary nebula. When these isotopically heavier meteorites are excluded, remaining chondrites have δ82/76Se values varying over a 0.3‰ range, within uncertainty of previous results [2]. We suggest that these chondrites may be used to estimate a δ82/76Se value of bulk planets. At the conditions of our experiments, the partition coefficients for Se log Dmetal-silicate range from 0.7±0.1 to 1.9±0.1, consistent with previous work [1]. A small but resolvable Se isotopic fractionation was observed: 82Se/76Se ratios were enriched by ≤ 0.5‰ in the silicates relative to the metals. Thus, given current uncertainties for Se isotopic measurements, marginal differences between planetary mantles and chondrites may be resolved

  13. Just in time: circadian defense patterns and the optimal defense hypothesis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baldwin, Ian T; Meldau, Stefan

    2013-06-01

    The optimal defense hypothesis (ODH) provides a functional explanation for the inhomogeneous distribution of defensive structures and defense metabolites throughout a plant's body: tissues that are most valuable in terms of fitness and have the highest probability of attack are generally the best defended. In a previous review, we argue that ontogenically-controlled accumulations of defense metabolites are likely regulated through an integration of developmental and defense signaling pathways. In this addendum, we extend the discussion of ODH patterns by including the recent discoveries of circadian clock-controlled defenses in plants.

  14. Adolescents' Body Image Trajectories: A Further Test of the Self-Equilibrium Hypothesis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morin, Alexandre J. S.; Maïano, Christophe; Scalas, L. Francesca; Janosz, Michel; Litalien, David

    2017-01-01

    The self-equilibrium hypothesis underlines the importance of having a strong core self, which is defined as a high and developmentally stable self-concept. This study tested this hypothesis in relation to body image (BI) trajectories in a sample of 1,006 adolescents (M[subscript age] = 12.6, including 541 males and 465 females) across a 4-year…

  15. A checklist to facilitate objective hypothesis testing in social psychology research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Washburn, Anthony N; Morgan, G Scott; Skitka, Linda J

    2015-01-01

    Social psychology is not a very politically diverse area of inquiry, something that could negatively affect the objectivity of social psychological theory and research, as Duarte et al. argue in the target article. This commentary offers a number of checks to help researchers uncover possible biases and identify when they are engaging in hypothesis confirmation and advocacy instead of hypothesis testing.

  16. Balassa-Samuelson Hypothesis: A Test Of Turkish Economy By ARDL Bound Testing Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Utku ALTUNÖZ

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Balassa-Samuelson effect is a popular theme at last years that introduced by Bèla Balassa (1964 and Paul Samuelson (1964. This concept, suggests that a differentiation at international level between the relative rates of productivity of the tradable and non tradable sectors may cause structural and permanent deviations from the purchasing power parity. In this essay, related variables are tested through Balassa-Samuelson Effect in terms of Turkey-European Economy. The choice of econometric technique used to estimate the model was important because the regressors in the model appeared to be a mixture of I(0 and I(1 processes. Thus ARDL bounds testing approaches to co integration analysis in estimating the long-run determinants of the real exchange rates. Given the dataset and econometric techniques used, the results do not support the B-S hypothesis.

  17. Complexity-Measure-Based Sequential Hypothesis Testing for Real-Time Detection of Lethal Cardiac Arrhythmias

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chen Szi-Wen

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available A novel approach that employs a complexity-based sequential hypothesis testing (SHT technique for real-time detection of ventricular fibrillation (VF and ventricular tachycardia (VT is presented. A dataset consisting of a number of VF and VT electrocardiogram (ECG recordings drawn from the MIT-BIH database was adopted for such an analysis. It was split into two smaller datasets for algorithm training and testing, respectively. Each ECG recording was measured in a 10-second interval. For each recording, a number of overlapping windowed ECG data segments were obtained by shifting a 5-second window by a step of 1 second. During the windowing process, the complexity measure (CM value was calculated for each windowed segment and the task of pattern recognition was then sequentially performed by the SHT procedure. A preliminary test conducted using the database produced optimal overall predictive accuracy of . The algorithm was also implemented on a commercial embedded DSP controller, permitting a hardware realization of real-time ventricular arrhythmia detection.

  18. Research on Establishing Null Hypothesis and Alternative Hypothesis in Hypothesis Test%浅谈假设检验中原假设和备择假设的建立

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    张玉环

    2012-01-01

    Establishing null hypothesis and alternative hypothesis is the first step in hypothesis test, How to establish null hypothesis and alternative hypothesis in hypothesis test is a trouble problem for students and beginners. According to Neyman-Pearson criteria, null hypothesis and alternative hypothesis aren't in the same status. How to set up null hypothesis and alternative hypothesis in hypothesis test are discussed in this paper. Several principles are given.%建立原假设和备择假设是进行假设检验的第一步.如何设立假设检验中的原假设和备择假设,是学生和初学者普遍困扰的问题.而根据奈曼—皮尔逊准则,原假设和备择假设的地位不对等.本文对如何建立假设检验中的原假设和备择假设进行了讨论,给出了几个建立原假设和备择假设的原则.

  19. Interpretations of Directed Information in Portfolio Theory, Data Compression, and Hypothesis Testing

    CERN Document Server

    Permuter, Haim H; Weissman, Tsachy

    2009-01-01

    We investigate the role of Massey's directed information in portfolio theory, data compression, and statistics with causality constraints. In particular, we show that directed information is an upper bound on the increment in growth rates of optimal portfolios in a stock market due to {causal} side information. This upper bound is tight for gambling in a horse race, which is an extreme case of stock markets. Directed information also characterizes the value of {causal} side information in instantaneous compression and quantifies the benefit of {causal} inference in joint compression of two stochastic processes. In hypothesis testing, directed information evaluates the best error exponent for testing whether a random process $Y$ {causally} influences another process $X$ or not. These results give a natural interpretation of directed information $I(Y^n \\to X^n)$ as the amount of information that a random sequence $Y^n = (Y_1,Y_2,..., Y_n)$ {causally} provides about another random sequence $X^n = (X_1,X_2,...,X_...

  20. Testing the Granger noncausality hypothesis in stationary nonlinear models of unknown functional form

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Péguin-Feissolle, Anne; Strikholm, Birgit; Teräsvirta, Timo

    In this paper we propose a general method for testing the Granger noncausality hypothesis in stationary nonlinear models of unknown functional form. These tests are based on a Taylor expansion of the nonlinear model around a given point in the sample space. We study the performance of our tests...

  1. Hypothesis tests for large density matrices of quantum systems based on Pauli measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Donggyu; Wang, Yazhen

    2017-03-01

    For a quantum system, its density matrix usually has a size growing exponentially with the number of particles in the system, and quantum state tomography techniques often encounter an exponential complexity problem for recovering the density matrix based on experimental data. Recent statistical methods for estimating a large density matrix have been developed for the cases that (i) the entries of the density matrix with respect to the Pauli basis are sparse, or (ii) the density matrix has a low rank, and its eigenvectors are sparse. Their performances depend on the assumed structures, and it is important to test for the structures and choose appropriate estimation methods accordingly. This paper investigates hypothesis tests for sparsity. Specifically, we propose hypothesis test procedures and establish asymptotic theories for the proposed tests. Numerical studies are conducted to check the finite sample performances of the proposed hypothesis tests.

  2. The limits to pride: A test of the pro-anorexia hypothesis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cornelius, Talea; Blanton, Hart

    2016-01-01

    Many social psychological models propose that positive self-conceptions promote self-esteem. An extreme version of this hypothesis is advanced in "pro-anorexia" communities: identifying with anorexia, in conjunction with disordered eating, can lead to higher self-esteem. The current study empirically tested this hypothesis. Results challenge the pro-anorexia hypothesis. Although those with higher levels of pro-anorexia identification trended towards higher self-esteem with increased disordered eating, this did not overcome the strong negative main effect of pro-anorexia identification. These data suggest a more effective strategy for promoting self-esteem is to encourage rejection of disordered eating and an anorexic identity.

  3. [Experimental testing of Pflüger's reflex hypothesis of menstruation in late 19th century].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simmer, H H

    1980-07-01

    Pflüger's hypothesis of a nerve reflex as the cause of menstruation published in 1865 and accepted by many, nonetheless did not lead to experimental investigations for 25 years. According to this hypothesis the nerve reflex starts in the ovary by an increase of the intraovarian pressure by the growing follicles. In 1884 Adolph Kehrer proposed a program to test the nerve reflex, but only in 1890, Cohnstein artificially increased the intraovarian pressure in women by bimanual compression from the outside and the vagina. His results were not convincing. Six years later, Strassmann injected fluids into ovaries of animals and obtained changes in the uterus resembling those of oestrus. His results seemed to verify a prognosis derived from Pflüger's hypothesis. Thus, after a long interval, that hypothesis had become a paradigma. Though reasons can be given for the delay, it is little understood, why experimental testing started so late.

  4. Testing the Fetal Origins Hypothesis in a developing country: evidence from the 1918 Influenza Pandemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nelson, Richard E

    2010-10-01

    The 1918 Influenza Pandemic is used as a natural experiment to test the Fetal Origins Hypothesis. This hypothesis states that individual health as well as socioeconomic outcomes, such as educational attainment, employment status, and wages, are affected by the health of that individual while in utero. Repeated cross sections from the Pesquisa Mensal de Emprego (PME), a labor market survey from Brazil, are used to test this hypothesis. I find evidence to support the Fetal Origins Hypothesis. In particular, compared to individuals born in the few years surrounding the Influenza Pandemic, those who were in utero during the pandemic are less likely to be college educated, be employed, have formal employment, or know how to read and have fewer years of schooling and a lower hourly wage. These results underscore the importance of fetal health especially in developing countries.

  5. Plant Disease Severity Assessment-How Rater Bias, Assessment Method, and Experimental Design Affect Hypothesis Testing and Resource Use Efficiency.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chiang, Kuo-Szu; Bock, Clive H; Lee, I-Hsuan; El Jarroudi, Moussa; Delfosse, Philippe

    2016-12-01

    The effect of rater bias and assessment method on hypothesis testing was studied for representative experimental designs for plant disease assessment using balanced and unbalanced data sets. Data sets with the same number of replicate estimates for each of two treatments are termed "balanced" and those with unequal numbers of replicate estimates are termed "unbalanced". The three assessment methods considered were nearest percent estimates (NPEs), an amended 10% incremental scale, and the Horsfall-Barratt (H-B) scale. Estimates of severity of Septoria leaf blotch on leaves of winter wheat were used to develop distributions for a simulation model. The experimental designs are presented here in the context of simulation experiments which consider the optimal design for the number of specimens (individual units sampled) and the number of replicate estimates per specimen for a fixed total number of observations (total sample size for the treatments being compared). The criterion used to gauge each method was the power of the hypothesis test. As expected, at a given fixed number of observations, the balanced experimental designs invariably resulted in a higher power compared with the unbalanced designs at different disease severity means, mean differences, and variances. Based on these results, with unbiased estimates using NPE, the recommended number of replicate estimates taken per specimen is 2 (from a sample of specimens of at least 30), because this conserves resources. Furthermore, for biased estimates, an apparent difference in the power of the hypothesis test was observed between assessment methods and between experimental designs. Results indicated that, regardless of experimental design or rater bias, an amended 10% incremental scale has slightly less power compared with NPEs, and that the H-B scale is more likely than the others to cause a type II error. These results suggest that choice of assessment method, optimizing sample number and number of replicate

  6. The stationarity paradigm revisited: Hypothesis testing using diagnostics, summary metrics, and DREAM(ABC)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sadegh, Mojtaba; Vrugt, Jasper A.; Xu, Chonggang; Volpi, Elena

    2015-11-01

    Many watershed models used within the hydrologic research community assume (by default) stationary conditions, that is, the key watershed properties that control water flow are considered to be time invariant. This assumption is rather convenient and pragmatic and opens up the wide arsenal of (multivariate) statistical and nonlinear optimization methods for inference of the (temporally fixed) model parameters. Several contributions to the hydrologic literature have brought into question the continued usefulness of this stationary paradigm for hydrologic modeling. This paper builds on the likelihood-free diagnostics approach of Vrugt and Sadegh and uses a diverse set of hydrologic summary metrics to test the stationary hypothesis and detect changes in the watersheds response to hydroclimatic forcing. Models with fixed parameter values cannot simulate adequately temporal variations in the summary statistics of the observed catchment data, and consequently, the DREAM(ABC) algorithm cannot find solutions that sufficiently honor the observed metrics. We demonstrate that the presented methodology is able to differentiate successfully between watersheds that are classified as stationary and those that have undergone significant changes in land use, urbanization, and/or hydroclimatic conditions, and thus are deemed nonstationary.

  7. General Multidecision Theory: Hypothesis Testing and Changepoint Detection with Applications to Homeland Security

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-01-19

    multiple DNA sequences Siegmund (2013). Motivated by these and other applications, we consider a general sequential detection problem where observations...Nikiforov, and M. Basseville, Sequential Analysis: Hypothe- sis Testing and Changepoint Detection ( Monographs on Statistics and Applied Probability...Hypothesis Testing and Changepoint Detection. Monographs on Statistics and Applied Probability. Chapman & Hall/CRC, Boca Raton, FL, 2014a. A. G

  8. Reasoning Maps: A Generally Applicable Method for Characterizing Hypothesis-Testing Behaviour. Research Report

    Science.gov (United States)

    White, Brian

    2004-01-01

    This paper presents a generally applicable method for characterizing subjects' hypothesis-testing behaviour based on a synthesis that extends on previous work. Beginning with a transcript of subjects' speech and videotape of their actions, a Reasoning Map is created that depicts the flow of their hypotheses, tests, predictions, results, and…

  9. The Gumbel hypothesis test for left censored observations using regional earthquake records as an example

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. M. Thompson

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Annual maximum (AM time series are incomplete (i.e., censored when no events are included above the assumed censoring threshold (i.e., magnitude of completeness. We introduce a distrtibutional hypothesis test for left-censored Gumbel observations based on the probability plot correlation coefficient (PPCC. Critical values of the PPCC hypothesis test statistic are computed from Monte-Carlo simulations and are a function of sample size, censoring level, and significance level. When applied to a global catalog of earthquake observations, the left-censored Gumbel PPCC tests are unable to reject the Gumbel hypothesis for 45 of 46 seismic regions. We apply four different field significance tests for combining individual tests into a collective hypothesis test. None of the field significance tests are able to reject the global hypothesis that AM earthquake magnitudes arise from a Gumbel distribution. Because the field significance levels are not conclusive, we also compute the likelihood that these field significance tests are unable to reject the Gumbel model when the samples arise from a more complex distributional alternative. A power study documents that the censored Gumbel PPCC test is unable to reject some important and viable Generalized Extreme Value (GEV alternatives. Thus, we cannot rule out the possibility that the global AM earthquake time series could arise from a GEV distribution with a finite upper bound, also known as a reverse Weibull distribution. Our power study also indicates that the binomial and uniform field significance tests are substantially more powerful than the more commonly used Bonferonni and false discovery rate multiple comparison procedures.

  10. A parametric approach to kinship hypothesis testing using identity-by-descent parameters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    García-Magariños, Manuel; Egeland, Thore; López-de-Ullibarri, Ignacio; Hjort, Nils L; Salas, Antonio

    2015-11-01

    There is a large number of applications where family relationships need to be determined from DNA data. In forensic science, competing ideas are in general verbally formulated as the two hypotheses of a test. For the most common paternity case, the null hypothesis states that the alleged father is the true father against the alternative hypothesis that the father is an unrelated man. A likelihood ratio is calculated to summarize the evidence. We propose an alternative framework whereby a model and the hypotheses are formulated in terms of parameters representing identity-by-descent probabilities. There are several advantages to this approach. Firstly, the alternative hypothesis can be completely general. Specifically, the alternative does not need to specify an unrelated man. Secondly, the parametric formulation corresponds to the approach used in most other applications of statistical hypothesis testing and so there is a large theory of classical statistics that can be applied. Theoretical properties of the test statistic under the null hypothesis are studied. An extension to trios of individuals has been carried out. The methods are exemplified using simulations and a real dataset of 27 Spanish Romani individuals.

  11. Statistical resolution limit for the multidimensional harmonic retrieval model: hypothesis test and Cramér-Rao Bound approaches

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    El Korso Mohammed

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract The statistical resolution limit (SRL, which is defined as the minimal separation between parameters to allow a correct resolvability, is an important statistical tool to quantify the ultimate performance for parametric estimation problems. In this article, we generalize the concept of the SRL to the multidimensional SRL (MSRL applied to the multidimensional harmonic retrieval model. In this article, we derive the SRL for the so-called multidimensional harmonic retrieval model using a generalization of the previously introduced SRL concepts that we call multidimensional SRL (MSRL. We first derive the MSRL using an hypothesis test approach. This statistical test is shown to be asymptotically an uniformly most powerful test which is the strongest optimality statement that one could expect to obtain. Second, we link the proposed asymptotic MSRL based on the hypothesis test approach to a new extension of the SRL based on the Cramér-Rao Bound approach. Thus, a closed-form expression of the asymptotic MSRL is given and analyzed in the framework of the multidimensional harmonic retrieval model. Particularly, it is proved that the optimal MSRL is obtained for equi-powered sources and/or an equi-distributed number of sensors on each multi-way array.

  12. Is the Economic andTesting the Efficient Markets Hypothesis on the Romanian Capital Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dragoș Mînjină

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available Informational efficiency of capital markets has been the subject of numerous empirical studies. Intensive research of the field is justified by the important implications of the knowledge of the of informational efficiency level in the financial practice. Empirical studies that have tested the efficient markets hypothesis on the Romanian capital market revealed mostly that this market is not characterised by the weak form of the efficient markets hypothesis. However, recent empirical studies have obtained results for the weak form of the efficient markets hypothesis. The present decline period of the Romanian capital market, recorded on the background of adverse economic developments internally and externally, will be an important test for the continuation of recent positive developments, manifested the level of informational efficiency too.

  13. Hypothesis-driven methods to augment human cognition by optimizing cortical oscillations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jörn M. Horschig

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Cortical oscillations have been shown to represent fundamental functions of a working brain, e.g. communication, stimulus binding, error monitoring, and inhibition, and are directly linked to behavior. Recent studies intervening with these oscillations have demonstrated effective modulation of both the oscillations and behavior. In this review, we collect evidence in favor of how hypothesis-driven methods can be used to augment cognition by optimizing cortical oscillations. We elaborate their potential usefulness for three target groups: healthy elderly, patients with attention deficit/hyperactivity disorder, and healthy young adults. We discuss the relevance of neuronal oscillations in each group and show how each of them can benefit from the manipulation of functionally-related oscillations. Further, we describe methods for manipulation of neuronal oscillations including direct brain stimulation as well as indirect task alterations. We also discuss practical considerations about the proposed techniques. In conclusion, we propose that insights from neuroscience should guide techniques to augment human cognition, which in turn can provide a better understanding of how the human brain works.

  14. Reproductive isolation, reproductive mode, and sexual selection: empirical tests of the viviparity-driven conflict hypothesis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coleman, Seth W; Harlin-Cognato, April; Jones, Adam G

    2009-03-01

    A central goal in evolutionary biology is to elucidate general mechanisms and patterns of species divergence. The viviparity-driven conflict (VDC) hypothesis posits that intense mother-embryo conflict associated with viviparity drives rapid reproductive isolation among viviparous species, is intensified by multiple paternity, and reduces female reliance on precopulatory cues in mate choice. We tested these predictions using comparisons of oviparous and viviparous fishes. Consistent with the VDC hypothesis, we found that, relative to oviparous species, only closely related viviparous fishes are known to hybridize. Also in support of the VDC hypothesis, we found that (1) elaborate male sexual ornamentation may be more common in viviparous species with relatively low levels of maternal provisioning of embryos compared with those with high levels of provisioning and (2) the degree of multiple paternity is higher in viviparous species than in oviparous species. In contrast to a prediction of the VDC hypothesis, we found no relationship between the degree of multiple paternity and elaborate male sexual ornamentation, although statistical power was quite low for this test. Whereas overall our results strongly support the central tenet of the VDC hypothesis-that reproductive mode affects rates of evolution of reproductive isolation and the strength of sexual selection-they cannot rule out two alternative models we propose that may also explain the observed patterns.

  15. Mothers Who Kill Their Offspring: Testing Evolutionary Hypothesis in a 110-Case Italian Sample

    Science.gov (United States)

    Camperio Ciani, Andrea S.; Fontanesi, Lilybeth

    2012-01-01

    Objectives: This research aimed to identify incidents of mothers in Italy killing their own children and to test an adaptive evolutionary hypothesis to explain their occurrence. Methods: 110 cases of mothers killing 123 of their own offspring from 1976 to 2010 were analyzed. Each case was classified using 13 dichotomic variables. Descriptive…

  16. Speech production in people who stutter: Testing the motor plan assembly hypothesis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lieshout, P.H.H.M. van; Hulstijn, W.; Peters, H.F.M.

    1996-01-01

    The main purpose of the present study was to test the hypothesis that persons who stutter, when compared to persons who do not stutter, are less able to assemble abstract motor plans for short verbal responses. Subjects were adult males who stutter and age- and sex-matched control speakers, who were

  17. Using VITA Service Learning Experiences to Teach Hypothesis Testing and P-Value Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drougas, Anne; Harrington, Steve

    2011-01-01

    This paper describes a hypothesis testing project designed to capture student interest and stimulate classroom interaction and communication. Using an online survey instrument, the authors collected student demographic information and data regarding university service learning experiences. Introductory statistics students performed a series of…

  18. Information Processing Strategies in Counselor Hypothesis Testing: The Role of Selective Memory and Expectancy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strohmer, Douglas C.; And Others

    1990-01-01

    Explored issue of confirmatory bias in counselors' clinical hypothesis testing by examining the way counselors (n=84) remembered information about a client. Results indicated counselors remembered more confirmatory than discomfirmatory information. Suggests counselors need to be aware of these biases and should be trained to avoid them.…

  19. Rehabilitation Counselor Hypothesis Testing: The Role of Negative Information, Client Disability, and Counselor Experience.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strohmer, Douglas C.

    1995-01-01

    Examines the way that rehabilitation counselors (n=41) select information to test a hypothesis about a client. Consistent with previous research, rehabilitation counselors systematically noted more negative client information when presented with equal numbers of equivalently weighted positive and negative client factors. (JPS)

  20. Bayesian Hypothesis Testing for Psychologists: A Tutorial on the Savage-Dickey Method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wagenmakers, Eric-Jan; Lodewyckx, Tom; Kuriyal, Himanshu; Grasman, Raoul

    2010-01-01

    In the field of cognitive psychology, the "p"-value hypothesis test has established a stranglehold on statistical reporting. This is unfortunate, as the "p"-value provides at best a rough estimate of the evidence that the data provide for the presence of an experimental effect. An alternative and arguably more appropriate measure of evidence is…

  1. A Range-Null Hypothesis Approach for Testing DIF under the Rasch Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wells, Craig S.; Cohen, Allan S.; Patton, Jeffrey

    2009-01-01

    A primary concern with testing differential item functioning (DIF) using a traditional point-null hypothesis is that a statistically significant result does not imply that the magnitude of DIF is of practical interest. Similarly, for a given sample size, a non-significant result does not allow the researcher to conclude the item is free of DIF. To…

  2. A Critical Assessment of Null Hypothesis Significance Testing in Quantitative Communication Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levine, Timothy R.; Weber, Rene; Hullett, Craig; Park, Hee Sun; Lindsey, Lisa L. Massi

    2008-01-01

    Null hypothesis significance testing (NHST) is the most widely accepted and frequently used approach to statistical inference in quantitative communication research. NHST, however, is highly controversial, and several serious problems with the approach have been identified. This paper reviews NHST and the controversy surrounding it. Commonly…

  3. An Argument Framework for the Application of Null Hypothesis Statistical Testing in Support of Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    LeMire, Steven D.

    2010-01-01

    This paper proposes an argument framework for the teaching of null hypothesis statistical testing and its application in support of research. Elements of the Toulmin (1958) model of argument are used to illustrate the use of p values and Type I and Type II error rates in support of claims about statistical parameters and subject matter research…

  4. Acorn Caching in Tree Squirrels: Teaching Hypothesis Testing in the Park

    Science.gov (United States)

    McEuen, Amy B.; Steele, Michael A.

    2012-01-01

    We developed an exercise for a university-level ecology class that teaches hypothesis testing by examining acorn preferences and caching behavior of tree squirrels (Sciurus spp.). This exercise is easily modified to teach concepts of behavioral ecology for earlier grades, particularly high school, and provides students with a theoretical basis for…

  5. A critical discussion of null hypothesis significance testing and statistical power analysis within psychological research

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jones, Allan; Sommerlund, Bo

    2007-01-01

    The uses of null hypothesis significance testing (NHST) and statistical power analysis within psychological research are critically discussed. The article looks at the problems of relying solely on NHST when dealing with small and large sample sizes. The use of power-analysis in estimating...

  6. Connecting Science and Mathematics: The Nature of Scientific and Statistical Hypothesis Testing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lawson, Anton E.; Oehrtman, Michael; Jensen, Jamie

    2008-01-01

    Confusion persists concerning the roles played by scientific hypotheses and predictions in doing science. This confusion extends to the nature of scientific and statistical hypothesis testing. The present paper utilizes the "If/and/then/Therefore" pattern of hypothetico-deductive (HD) reasoning to explicate the nature of both scientific and…

  7. Testing Informative Hypotheses in SEM Increases Power: An Illustration Contrasting Classical Hypothesis Testing with a Parametric Bootstrap Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    van de Schoot, Rens; Strohmeier, Dagmar

    2011-01-01

    In the present paper, the application of a parametric bootstrap procedure, as described by van de Schoot, Hoijtink, and Dekovic (2010), will be applied to demonstrate that a direct test of an informative hypothesis offers more informative results compared to testing traditional null hypotheses against catch-all rivals. Also, more power can be…

  8. Concerns regarding a call for pluralism of information theory and hypothesis testing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lukacs, P.M.; Thompson, W.L.; Kendall, W.L.; Gould, W.R.; Doherty, P.F.; Burnham, K.P.; Anderson, D.R.

    2007-01-01

    1. Stephens et al . (2005) argue for `pluralism? in statistical analysis, combining null hypothesis testing and information-theoretic (I-T) methods. We show that I-T methods are more informative even in single variable problems and we provide an ecological example. 2. I-T methods allow inferences to be made from multiple models simultaneously. We believe multimodel inference is the future of data analysis, which cannot be achieved with null hypothesis-testing approaches. 3. We argue for a stronger emphasis on critical thinking in science in general and less reliance on exploratory data analysis and data dredging. Deriving alternative hypotheses is central to science; deriving a single interesting science hypothesis and then comparing it to a default null hypothesis (e.g. `no difference?) is not an efficient strategy for gaining knowledge. We think this single-hypothesis strategy has been relied upon too often in the past. 4. We clarify misconceptions presented by Stephens et al . (2005). 5. We think inference should be made about models, directly linked to scientific hypotheses, and their parameters conditioned on data, Prob(Hj| data). I-T methods provide a basis for this inference. Null hypothesis testing merely provides a probability statement about the data conditioned on a null model, Prob(data |H0). 6. Synthesis and applications. I-T methods provide a more informative approach to inference. I-T methods provide a direct measure of evidence for or against hypotheses and a means to consider simultaneously multiple hypotheses as a basis for rigorous inference. Progress in our science can be accelerated if modern methods can be used intelligently; this includes various I-T and Bayesian methods.

  9. A critical discussion of null hypothesis significance testing and statistical power analysis within psychological research

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jones, Allan; Sommerlund, Bo

    2007-01-01

    The uses of null hypothesis significance testing (NHST) and statistical power analysis within psychological research are critically discussed. The article looks at the problems of relying solely on NHST when dealing with small and large sample sizes. The use of power-analysis in estimating...... the potential error introduced by small and large samples is advocated. Power analysis is not recommended as a replacement to NHST but as an additional source of information about the phenomena under investigation. Moreover, the importance of conceptual analysis in relation to statistical analysis of hypothesis...

  10. The effects of temperature on sex determination in the bloater Coregonus hoyi: a hypothesis test

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eck, Gary W.; Allen, Jeffrey D.

    1995-01-01

    The hypothesis that temperature was an epigamic factor in bloater (Coregonus hoyi) sex determination in Lake Michigan was tested by rearing bloater larvae in the laboratory at 6, 11, and 15 degrees C for the first 80 days after hatching. The percentages of females of fish exposed to the three treatment temperatures did not differ significantly from the expected, 50%. Therefore, the null hypothesis, that temperature did not influence bloater sex determination within the confines of this study, could not be rejected. Our study of bloater sex determination was an attempt to explain the extreme female predominance (> 95%) that occurred in the Lake Michigan bloater population during the 1960s.

  11. Analysis of long-term dependence phenomenon in Benue River flow process and its hypothesis testing

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2008-01-01

    In this paper, the long-term dependence phenomenon (the Hurst Effect) which characterizes hydrological and other geophysical times series is studied. The long-term memory is analysed for both daily and monthly streamflow series of the Benue River at Makurdi, Nigeria by using heuristic methods and testing specifically the null hypothesis of short-term memory in the monthly flow series. Results obtained by applying heuristic procedures indicated that there may be the presence of long-term memory component in mean daily flow series but there is no discernible reason to suspect the presence in both average monthly and maximum monthly flow series (extreme event). Hypothesis testing was conducted by using original and modified versions of rescaled range statistic. When the modified rescaled range, which accounts for short-term memory in the series, is used, the null hypothesis is accepted for both the average monthly and maximum monthly flow series, indicating little or no probable presence of long-term memory in the series. An identical conclusion is also arrived at when second null hypothesis for independence of the monthly flow series is tested. Therefore, apart from the mean daily flow series, there is little evidence of long-term dependence in the Benue River streamflow series at Makurdi. However, considering the limited length of data used, the results are inconclusive.

  12. On the origins of cultural differences in conformity: four tests of the pathogen prevalence hypothesis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murray, Damian R; Trudeau, Russell; Schaller, Mark

    2011-03-01

    What are the origins of cultural differences in conformity? The authors deduce the hypothesis that these cultural differences may reflect historical variability in the prevalence of disease-causing pathogens: Where pathogens were more prevalent, there were likely to emerge cultural norms promoting greater conformity. The authors conducted four tests of this hypothesis, using countries as units of analysis. Results support the pathogen prevalence hypothesis. Pathogen prevalence positively predicts cultural differences in effect sizes that emerge from behavioral conformity experiments (r=.49, n=17) and in the percentage of the population who prioritize obedience (r=.48, n=83). Pathogen prevalence also negatively predicted two indicators of tolerance for nonconformity: within-country dispositional variability (r=-.48, n=33) and the percentage of the population who are left-handed (r=-.73, n=20). Additional analyses address plausible alternative causal explanations. Discussion focuses on plausible underlying mechanisms (e.g., genetic, developmental, cognitive).

  13. Timing and proximate causes of mortality in wild bird populations: testing Ashmole’s hypothesis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barton, Daniel C.; Martin, Thomas E.

    2012-01-01

    Fecundity in birds is widely recognized to increase with latitude across diverse phylogenetic groups and regions, yet the causes of this variation remain enigmatic. Ashmole’s hypothesis is one of the most broadly accepted explanations for this pattern. This hypothesis suggests that increasing seasonality leads to increasing overwinter mortality due to resource scarcity during the lean season (e.g., winter) in higher latitude climates. This mortality is then thought to yield increased per-capita resources for breeding that allow larger clutch sizes at high latitudes. Support for this hypothesis has been based on indirect tests, whereas the underlying mechanisms and assumptions remain poorly explored. We used a meta-analysis of over 150 published studies to test two underlying and critical assumptions of Ashmole’s hypothesis: first, that ad ult mortality is greatest during the season of greatest resource scarcity, and second, t hat most mortality is caused by starvation. We found that the lean season (winter) was generally not the season of greatest mortality. Instead, spring or summer was most frequently the season of greatest mortality. Moreover, monthly survival rates were not explained by monthly productivity, again opposing predictions from Ashmole’s hypothesis. Finally, predation, rather than starvation, was the most frequent proximate cause o f mortality. Our results do not support the mechanistic predictions of Ashmole‘s hypothesis, and suggest alternative explanations of latitudinal variation in clutch size should remain under consideration. Our meta-analysis also highlights a paucity of data available on the timing and causes of mortality in many bird populations, particularly tropical bird populations, despite the clear theoretical and empirical importance of such data.

  14. Information-theoretic indices and an approximate significance test for testing the molecular clock hypothesis with genetic distances.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xia, Xuhua

    2009-09-01

    Distance-based phylogenetic methods are widely used in biomedical research. However, distance-based dating of speciation events and the test of the molecular clock hypothesis are relatively underdeveloped. Here I develop an approximate test of the molecular clock hypothesis for distance-based trees, as well as information-theoretic indices that have been used frequently in model selection, for use with distance matrices. The results are in good agreement with the conventional sequence-based likelihood ratio test. Among the information-theoretic indices, AICu is the most consistent with the sequence-based likelihood ratio test. The confidence in model selection by the indices can be evaluated by bootstrapping. I illustrate the usage of the indices and the approximate significance test with both empirical and simulated sequences. The tests show that distance matrices from protein gel electrophoresis and from genome rearrangement events do not violate the molecular clock hypothesis, and that the evolution of the third codon position conforms to the molecular clock hypothesis better than the second codon position in vertebrate mitochondrial genes. I outlined evolutionary distances that are appropriate for phylogenetic reconstruction and dating.

  15. Test anxiety and intelligence testing: a closer examination of the stage-fright hypothesis and the influence of stressful instruction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meijer, Joost; Oostdam, Ron

    2007-03-01

    The influence of test anxiety and the content of instruction (stressful versus reassuring) on measurements of intelligence were investigated. It was expected that components of test anxiety would show differential effects on test performance. A Latin Square design was used to unravel the effects of test type and test order. Furthermore, effects of type of instruction, stressful versus reassuring, were studied by means of a within-subjects design. Test anxiety was measured with the Revised Worry-Emotionality Questionnaire. Measurements for verbal ability, reasoning, and memory were administered. Performance on memory tests showed less vulnerability to test anxiety compared with the other tests, with a picture recall test being insensitive. The negative effect of test anxiety was mostly confined to the beginning of a test session, independent of the type of test. Partial support for the so-called stage-fright hypothesis was found. The effect of instructional content was equivocal.

  16. Critical evidence: a test of the critical-period hypothesis for second-language acquisition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hakuta, Kenji; Bialystok, Ellen; Wiley, Edward

    2003-01-01

    The critical-period hypothesis for second-language acquisition was tested on data from the 1990 U.S. Census using responses from 2.3 million immigrants with Spanish or Chinese language backgrounds. The analyses tested a key prediction of the hypothesis, namely, that the line regressing second-language attainment on age of immigration would be markedly different on either side of the critical-age point. Predictions tested were that there would be a difference in slope, a difference in the mean while controlling for slope, or both. The results showed large linear effects for level of education and for age of immigration, but a negligible amount of additional variance was accounted for when the parameters for difference in slope and difference in means were estimated. Thus, the pattern of decline in second-language acquisition failed to produce the discontinuity that is an essential hallmark of a critical period.

  17. Constrained inversion as a hypothesis testing tool, what can we learn about the lithosphere?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moorkamp, Max; Stewart, Fishwick; Jones, Alan G.

    2017-04-01

    Inversion of geophysical data constrained by a reference model is typically used to guide the inversion of low resolution data towards a geologically plausible solution. For example, a migrated seismic section can provide the location of lithological boundaries for potential field inversions. Here we consider the inversion of long-period magnetotelluric data constrained by models generated through surface wave inversion. In this case, we do not consider the surface wave model inherently better in any sense and want to guide the magnetotelluric inversion towards this model, but we want to test the hypothesis that both datasets can be explained by models with similar structure. If the hypothesis test is successful, i.e. we can fit the observations with a conductivity model with structural similarity to the seismic model, we have found an alternative explanation compared to the individual inversion and can use the differences to learn about the resolution of the magnetotelluric data and can improve our interpretation. Conversely, if the test refutes our hypothesis of coincident structure, we have found features in the models that are sensed fundamentally different by both methods which is potentially instructive on the nature of the anomalies. We use a MT dataset acquired in central Botswana over the Okwa terrane and the adjacent Kaapvaal and Zimbabwe Cratons together with a tomographic model for the region to illustrate and test this approach. Here, various conductive structures have been identified that bridge the Moho. Furthermore, the thickness of the lithosphere inferred from the different methods differs. In both cases the question is in how far this is a result of the ill-posed nature of inversion and in how far these differences can be reconciled. Thus this dataset is an ideal test case for our hypothesis testing approach. Finally, we will demonstrate how we can use the results of the constrained inversion to extract conductivity-velocity relationships in the

  18. Testing of weak form of efficient market hypothesis: evidence from the Bahrain Bourse

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iqbal Thonse Hawaldar

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Efficient market hypothesis (EMH states that financial markets are “informationally efficient”, implying that current prices fully reflect all available information. The present study aims at testing the weak form of market efficiency of the individual stocks listed on the Bahrain Bourse for the period 2011 to 2015. Weak form of EMH is tested using the Kolmogorov-Smirnov goodness of fit test, run test and autocorrelation test. The K-S test result concludes that in general the stock price movement does not follow random walk. The results of the runs test reveals that share prices of seven companies do not follow random walk. Autocorrelation tests reveal that share prices exhibit low to moderate correlation varying from negative to positive values. As the study shows mixed results, it is difficult to conclude the weak form of efficiency of Bahrain Bourse.

  19. Is sex advantageous in adverse environments? A test of the abandon-ship hypothesis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griffiths, Joshua G; Bonser, Stephen P

    2013-12-01

    Understanding the evolution and maintenance of sexual reproduction remains a long-standing challenge in evolutionary biology. Stress often induces sexual reproduction in facultatively sexual species (those species capable of both sexual and asexual reproduction). The abandon-ship hypothesis predicts higher allocation to sex under stress to allow low-fitness individuals to recombine their genotype, potentially increasing offspring fitness. However, effective tests of the abandon-ship hypothesis, particularly in multicellular organisms, are lacking. Here we test the abandon-ship hypothesis, using cyanogenic and acyanogenic defense phenotypes of the short-lived perennial herb Trifolium repens. Cyanogenesis provides an effective defense against herbivores and is under relatively simple genetic control (plants dominant for cyanogenesis at two alleles express the defended phenotype). Thus, maladapted individuals can acquire adaptive defense alleles for their offspring in a single episode of sexual reproduction. Plants were grown under high- and low-herbivory treatments (plants were exposed to herbivorous snails) and a control treatment (no herbivory). Herbivores reduced growth and fitness in all treated plants, but herbivory induced higher sexual allocation only in maladapted (acyanogenic) individuals. Overall, our results support the abandon-ship hypothesis.

  20. Hodges-Lehmann optimality of tests

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kallenberg, W.C.M.; Kourouklis, S.

    1992-01-01

    At several places in the literature there are indications that many tests are optimal in the sense of Hodges-Lehmann efficiency. It is argued here that shrinkage of the acceptance regions of the tests to the null set in a coarse way is already enough to ensure optimality. This type of argument can b

  1. Null hypothesis significance tests. A mix-up of two different theories

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schneider, Jesper Wiborg

    2015-01-01

    Null hypothesis statistical significance tests (NHST) are widely used in quantitative research in the empirical sciences including scientometrics. Nevertheless, since their introduction nearly a century ago significance tests have been controversial. Many researchers are not aware of the numerous......-Bayesian interpretations. This is undoubtedly a major reason why NHST is very often misunderstood. But NHST also has intrinsic logical problems and the epistemic range of the information provided by such tests is much more limited than most researchers recognize. In this article we introduce to the scientometric community...

  2. Statistical hypothesis testing and common misinterpretations: Should we abandon p-value in forensic science applications?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taroni, F; Biedermann, A; Bozza, S

    2016-02-01

    Many people regard the concept of hypothesis testing as fundamental to inferential statistics. Various schools of thought, in particular frequentist and Bayesian, have promoted radically different solutions for taking a decision about the plausibility of competing hypotheses. Comprehensive philosophical comparisons about their advantages and drawbacks are widely available and continue to span over large debates in the literature. More recently, controversial discussion was initiated by an editorial decision of a scientific journal [1] to refuse any paper submitted for publication containing null hypothesis testing procedures. Since the large majority of papers published in forensic journals propose the evaluation of statistical evidence based on the so called p-values, it is of interest to expose the discussion of this journal's decision within the forensic science community. This paper aims to provide forensic science researchers with a primer on the main concepts and their implications for making informed methodological choices.

  3. Reconciliation, relationship quality, and postconflict anxiety: testing the integrated hypothesis in captive chimpanzees.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koski, Sonja E; Koops, Kathelijne; Sterck, Elisabeth H M

    2007-02-01

    Reconciliation is a conflict resolution mechanism that is common to many gregarious species with individualized societies. Reconciliation repairs the damaged relationship between the opponents and decreases postconflict (PC) anxiety. The "integrated hypothesis" links the quality of the opponents' relationship to PC anxiety, since it proposes that conflicts among partners with high relationship quality will yield high levels of PC anxiety, which in turn will lead to an increased likelihood of reconciliation. We tested the integrated hypothesis in captive chimpanzees (Pan troglodytes) in the Arnhem Zoo, The Netherlands. We applied the standard PC/matched control (MC) method. Our results mostly support the integrated hypothesis, in that more valuable and compatible partners (i.e., males and frequent groomers) reconciled more often than less valuable and weakly compatible partners (i.e., females and infrequent groomers). In addition, PC anxiety was higher after conflicts among males than among females. Emotional arousal thus appears to be a mediator facilitating reconciliation. However, in contrast to the predictions derived from the integrated hypothesis, PC anxiety appeared only in aggressees, and not in aggressors, of conflicts. This suggests that while relationship quality determines PC anxiety, it is dependent on the role of the participants in the conflict.

  4. Giant Panda Maternal Care: A Test of the Experience Constraint Hypothesis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Snyder, Rebecca J; Perdue, Bonnie M; Zhang, Zhihe; Maple, Terry L; Charlton, Benjamin D

    2016-06-07

    The body condition constraint and the experience condition constraint hypotheses have both been proposed to account for differences in reproductive success between multiparous (experienced) and primiparous (first-time) mothers. However, because primiparous mothers are typically characterized by both inferior body condition and lack of experience when compared to multiparous mothers, interpreting experience related differences in maternal care as support for either the body condition constraint hypothesis or the experience constraint hypothesis is extremely difficult. Here, we examined maternal behaviour in captive giant pandas, allowing us to simultaneously control for body condition and provide a rigorous test of the experience constraint hypothesis in this endangered animal. We found that multiparous mothers spent more time engaged in key maternal behaviours (nursing, grooming, and holding cubs) and had significantly less vocal cubs than primiparous mothers. This study provides the first evidence supporting the experience constraint hypothesis in the order Carnivora, and may have utility for captive breeding programs in which it is important to monitor the welfare of this species' highly altricial cubs, whose survival is almost entirely dependent on receiving adequate maternal care during the first few weeks of life.

  5. Evolution of viviparity: a phylogenetic test of the cold-climate hypothesis in phrynosomatid lizards.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lambert, Shea M; Wiens, John J

    2013-09-01

    The evolution of viviparity is a key life-history transition in vertebrates, but the selective forces favoring its evolution are not fully understood. With >100 origins of viviparity, squamate reptiles (lizards and snakes) are ideal for addressing this issue. Some evidence from field and laboratory studies supports the "cold-climate" hypothesis, wherein viviparity provides an advantage in cold environments by allowing mothers to maintain higher temperatures for developing embryos. Surprisingly, the cold-climate hypothesis has not been tested using both climatic data and phylogenetic comparative methods. Here, we investigate the evolution of viviparity in the lizard family Phrynosomatidae using GIS-based environmental data, an extensive phylogeny (117 species), and recently developed comparative methods. We find significant relationships between viviparity and lower temperatures during the warmest (egg-laying) season, strongly supporting the cold-climate hypothesis. Remarkably, we also find that viviparity tends to evolve more frequently at tropical latitudes, despite its association with cooler climates. Our results help explain this and two related patterns that seemingly contradict the cold-climate hypothesis: the presence of viviparous species restricted to low-elevation tropical regions and the paucity of viviparous species at high latitudes. Finally, we examine whether viviparous taxa may be at higher risk of extinction from anthropogenic climate change.

  6. Testing the Glucose Hypothesis among Capuchin Monkeys: Does Glucose Boost Self-Control?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parrish, Audrey E.; Emerson, Ishara D.; Rossettie, Mattea S.; Beran, Michael J.

    2016-01-01

    The ego-depletion hypothesis states that self-control diminishes over time and with exertion. Accordingly, the glucose hypothesis attributes this depletion of self-control resources to decreases in blood glucose levels. Research has led to mixed findings among humans and nonhuman animals, with limited evidence for such a link between glucose and self-control among closely-related nonhuman primate species, but some evidence from more distantly related species (e.g., honeybees and dogs). We tested this hypothesis in capuchin monkeys by manipulating the sugar content of a calorie-matched breakfast meal following a nocturnal fast, and then presenting each monkey with the accumulation self-control task. Monkeys were presented with food items one-by-one until the subject retrieved and ate the accumulating items, which required continual inhibition of food retrieval in the face of an increasingly desirable reward. Results indicated no relationship between self-control performance on the accumulation task and glucose ingestion levels following a fast. These results do not provide support for the glucose hypothesis of self-control among capuchin monkeys within the presented paradigm. Further research assessing self-control and its physiological correlates among closely- and distantly-related species is warranted to shed light on the mechanisms underlying self-control behavior. PMID:27527225

  7. Advertising investment as a tool for boosting consumption: testing Galbraith's hypothesis for Spain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Valentín-Alejandro Martínez-Fernández

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The recession that most of the world economies have been facing in the last years has caused a great interest in the study of its macroeconomic effects. In this context, a debate has resurged regarding the advertising investment, as for its potential capacity to impel the consumer spending and to impact positively on the economic recovery. This idea, sustained in the so-called Galbraith's hypothesis, constitutes the core of this paper, where the main objective is to test that hypothesis by means of an empirical analysis. In this study, we focus on the Spanish case and the data correspond to the period 1976 -2010. A cointegration analysis is carried out, using two different approaches (Engle-Granger test and Gregory-Hansen test, respectively, to determine if there is any relationship between the advertising investment and six macromagnitudes (GDP, National Income, Consumption, Savings and Fixed Capital Formation, as well as the registered unemployment rate. Based on the results obtained, we conclude that Galbraith's hypothesis is not fulfilled for the Spanish case.

  8. A Powerful Test of the Autoregressive Unit Root Hypothesis Based on a Tuning Parameter Free Statistic

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Morten Ørregaard

    reflects the parameter chosen to implement the test, and (iii) since the asymptotic distribution depends on d and the test remains consistent for all d > 0, it is possible to analyze the power of the test for different values of d. The usual Phillips-Perron or Dickey-Fuller type tests are indexed...... good size properties, with finite sample power that is higher than that of Breitung's (2002) test and even rivals the (nearly) optimal parametric GLS detrended augmented Dickey-Fuller test with lag length chosen by an information criterion....

  9. A test for diffusional coherency strain hypothesis in the discontinuous precipitation in Mg–Al alloy

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    K T Kashyap; C Ramachandra; V Bhat; B Chatterji

    2000-08-01

    Discontinuous precipitation (DP) occurs in many alloy systems under certain conditions. Although solute supersaturation is the chemical driving force for DP, this has to be coupled with another driving force for grain boundary migration. This was identified to be diffusional coherency strain ahead of the moving boundary in the case of diffusion induced grain boundary migration (DIGM) and liquid film migration (LFM). In the present work, the validity of diffusional coherency strain hypothesis is verified in Mg–Al alloy, which exhibits discontinuous precipitation. Samples were tested with an applied stress simultaneously with discontinuous precipitation and it was found that the velocity of the boundaries both parallel and transverse to the stress axis obeys the model for diffusional coherency strain. This work can be used as a conclusive evidence for diffusional coherency strain hypothesis for the occurrence of discontinuous precipitation in Mg–Al alloys.

  10. The self: Your own worst enemy? A test of the self-invoking trigger hypothesis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKay, Brad; Wulf, Gabriele; Lewthwaite, Rebecca; Nordin, Andrew

    2015-01-01

    The self-invoking trigger hypothesis was proposed by Wulf and Lewthwaite [Wulf, G., & Lewthwaite, R. (2010). Effortless motor learning? An external focus of attention enhances movement effectiveness and efficiency. In B. Bruya (Ed.), Effortless attention: A new perspective in attention and action (pp. 75-101). Cambridge, MA: MIT Press] as a mechanism underlying the robust effect of attentional focus on motor learning and performance. One component of this hypothesis, relevant beyond the attentional focus effect, suggests that causing individuals to access their self-schema will negatively impact their learning and performance of a motor skill. The purpose of the present two studies was to provide an initial test of the performance and learning aspects of the self-invoking trigger hypothesis by asking participants in one group to think about themselves between trial blocks-presumably activating their self-schema-to compare their performance and learning to that of a control group. In Experiment 1, participants performed 2 blocks of 10 trials on a throwing task. In one condition, participants were asked between blocks to think about their past throwing experience. While a control group maintained their performance across blocks, the self group's performance was degraded on the second block. In Experiment 2, participants were asked to practice a wiffleball hitting task on two separate days. Participants returned on a third day to perform retention and transfer tests without the self-activating manipulation. Results indicated that the self group learned the hitting task less effectively than the control group. The findings reported here provide initial support for the self-invoking trigger hypothesis.

  11. Hypothesis testing on the fractal structure of behavioral sequences: the Bayesian assessment of scaling methodology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moscoso del Prado Martín, Fermín

    2013-12-01

    I introduce the Bayesian assessment of scaling (BAS), a simple but powerful Bayesian hypothesis contrast methodology that can be used to test hypotheses on the scaling regime exhibited by a sequence of behavioral data. Rather than comparing parametric models, as typically done in previous approaches, the BAS offers a direct, nonparametric way to test whether a time series exhibits fractal scaling. The BAS provides a simpler and faster test than do previous methods, and the code for making the required computations is provided. The method also enables testing of finely specified hypotheses on the scaling indices, something that was not possible with the previously available methods. I then present 4 simulation studies showing that the BAS methodology outperforms the other methods used in the psychological literature. I conclude with a discussion of methodological issues on fractal analyses in experimental psychology.

  12. Improving the space surveillance telescope's performance using multi-hypothesis testing

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chris Zingarelli, J.; Cain, Stephen [Air Force Institute of Technology, 2950 Hobson Way, Bldg 641, Wright Patterson AFB, OH 45433 (United States); Pearce, Eric; Lambour, Richard [Lincoln Labratory, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 244 Wood Street, Lexington, MA 02421 (United States); Blake, Travis [Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, 675 North Randolph Street Arlington, VA 22203 (United States); Peterson, Curtis J. R., E-mail: John.Zingarelli@afit.edu [United States Air Force, 1690 Air Force Pentagon, Washington, DC 20330 (United States)

    2014-05-01

    The Space Surveillance Telescope (SST) is a Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency program designed to detect objects in space like near Earth asteroids and space debris in the geosynchronous Earth orbit (GEO) belt. Binary hypothesis test (BHT) methods have historically been used to facilitate the detection of new objects in space. In this paper a multi-hypothesis detection strategy is introduced to improve the detection performance of SST. In this context, the multi-hypothesis testing (MHT) determines if an unresolvable point source is in either the center, a corner, or a side of a pixel in contrast to BHT, which only tests whether an object is in the pixel or not. The images recorded by SST are undersampled such as to cause aliasing, which degrades the performance of traditional detection schemes. The equations for the MHT are derived in terms of signal-to-noise ratio (S/N), which is computed by subtracting the background light level around the pixel being tested and dividing by the standard deviation of the noise. A new method for determining the local noise statistics that rejects outliers is introduced in combination with the MHT. An experiment using observations of a known GEO satellite are used to demonstrate the improved detection performance of the new algorithm over algorithms previously reported in the literature. The results show a significant improvement in the probability of detection by as much as 50% over existing algorithms. In addition to detection, the S/N results prove to be linearly related to the least-squares estimates of point source irradiance, thus improving photometric accuracy.

  13. Paranormal psychic believers and skeptics: a large-scale test of the cognitive differences hypothesis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gray, Stephen J; Gallo, David A

    2016-02-01

    Belief in paranormal psychic phenomena is widespread in the United States, with over a third of the population believing in extrasensory perception (ESP). Why do some people believe, while others are skeptical? According to the cognitive differences hypothesis, individual differences in the way people process information about the world can contribute to the creation of psychic beliefs, such as differences in memory accuracy (e.g., selectively remembering a fortune teller's correct predictions) or analytical thinking (e.g., relying on intuition rather than scrutinizing evidence). While this hypothesis is prevalent in the literature, few have attempted to empirically test it. Here, we provided the most comprehensive test of the cognitive differences hypothesis to date. In 3 studies, we used online screening to recruit groups of strong believers and strong skeptics, matched on key demographics (age, sex, and years of education). These groups were then tested in laboratory and online settings using multiple cognitive tasks and other measures. Our cognitive testing showed that there were no consistent group differences on tasks of episodic memory distortion, autobiographical memory distortion, or working memory capacity, but skeptics consistently outperformed believers on several tasks tapping analytical or logical thinking as well as vocabulary. These findings demonstrate cognitive similarities and differences between these groups and suggest that differences in analytical thinking and conceptual knowledge might contribute to the development of psychic beliefs. We also found that psychic belief was associated with greater life satisfaction, demonstrating benefits associated with psychic beliefs and highlighting the role of both cognitive and noncognitive factors in understanding these individual differences.

  14. Fluorescence Microspectroscopy for Testing the Dimerization Hypothesis of BACE1 Protein in Cultured HEK293 Cells

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gardeen, Spencer; Johnson, Joseph L.; Heikal, Ahmed A.

    2016-06-01

    Alzheimer's Disease (AD) is a neurodegenerative disorder that results from the formation of beta-amyloid plaques in the brain that trigger the known symptoms of memory loss in AD patients. The beta-amyloid plaques are formed by the proteolytic cleavage of the amyloid precursor protein (APP) by the proteases BACE1 and gamma-secretase. These enzyme-facilitated cleavages lead to the production of beta-amyloid fragments that aggregate to form plaques, which ultimately lead to neuronal cell death. Recent detergent protein extraction studies suggest that BACE1 protein forms a dimer that has significantly higher catalytic activity than its monomeric counterpart. In this contribution, we examine the dimerization hypothesis of BACE1 in cultured HEK293 cells using complementary fluorescence spectroscopy and microscopy methods. Cells were transfected with a BACE1-EGFP fusion protein construct and imaged using confocal, and differential interference contrast to monitor the localization and distribution of intracellular BACE1. Complementary fluorescence lifetime and anisotropy measurements enabled us to examine the conformational and environmental changes of BACE1 as a function of substrate binding. Using fluorescence correlation spectroscopy, we also quantified the diffusion coefficient of BACE1-EGFP on the plasma membrane as a means to test the dimerization hypothesis as a fucntion of substrate-analog inhibitition. Our results represent an important first towards examining the substrate-mediated dimerization hypothesis of BACE1 in live cells.

  15. Hypothesis Testing, "p" Values, Confidence Intervals, Measures of Effect Size, and Bayesian Methods in Light of Modern Robust Techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilcox, Rand R.; Serang, Sarfaraz

    2017-01-01

    The article provides perspectives on p values, null hypothesis testing, and alternative techniques in light of modern robust statistical methods. Null hypothesis testing and "p" values can provide useful information provided they are interpreted in a sound manner, which includes taking into account insights and advances that have…

  16. Is conscious stimulus identification dependent on knowledge of the perceptual modality? Testing the “source misidentifcation hypothesis"

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Overgaard, Morten; Lindeløv, Jonas Kristoffer; Svejstrup, Stinna

    2013-01-01

    This paper reports an experiment intended to test a particular hypothesis derived from blindsight research, which we name the “source misidentification hypothesis.” According to this hypothesis, a subject may be correct about a stimulus without being correct about how she had access...... to this knowledge (whether the stimulus was visual, auditory, or something else). We test this hypothesis in healthy subjects, asking them to report whether a masked stimulus was presented auditorily or visually, what the stimulus was, and how clearly they experienced the stimulus using the Perceptual Awareness...... experience of the stimulus. To demonstrate that particular levels of reporting accuracy are obtained, we employ a statistical strategy, which operationally tests the hypothesis of non-equality, such that the usual rejection of the null-hypothesis admits the conclusion of equivalence....

  17. User's manual for covariance and hypothesis testing program

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Parr, J.T.; Bogar, G.P.; Johnson, D.H.

    1978-06-01

    Statistical computer programs are described which are intended for general usage in evaluating multidimensional feature indices for resource potential. In particular, the computer programs comprise a covariance computation program and a likelihood function evaluation program. These programs have been exercised in this study for geothermal exploration, using as many as 34 selected feature indices from a data base that may include up to 100 distinct indices. It is anticipated that many more indices might be considered simultaneously. Practical limitations occur with large covariances due to numerical errors in computing eigenvalues and eigenvectors. The basic concept of hypothesis testing as formulated in this study is described.

  18. Tests of the planetary hypothesis for PTFO 8-8695b

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Yu, Liang; Winn, Joshua N.; Gillon, Michaël

    2015-01-01

    The T Tauri star PTFO 8-8695 exhibits periodic fading events that have been interpreted as the transits of a giant planet on a precessing orbit. Here we present three tests of the planet hypothesis. First, we sought evidence for the secular changes in light-curve morphology that are predicted...... to be a consequence of orbital precession. We observed 28 fading events spread over several years, and did not see the expected changes. Instead we found that the fading events are not strictly periodic. Second, we attempted to detect the planet's radiation, based on infrared observations spanning the predicted times...

  19. Statistical power analysis a simple and general model for traditional and modern hypothesis tests

    CERN Document Server

    Murphy, Kevin R; Wolach, Allen

    2014-01-01

    Noted for its accessible approach, this text applies the latest approaches of power analysis to both null hypothesis and minimum-effect testing using the same basic unified model. Through the use of a few simple procedures and examples, the authors show readers with little expertise in statistical analysis how to obtain the values needed to carry out the power analysis for their research. Illustrations of how these analyses work and how they can be used to choose the appropriate criterion for defining statistically significant outcomes are sprinkled throughout. The book presents a simple and g

  20. Testing the hypothesis of the natural suicide rates: Further evidence from OECD data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andres, Antonio Rodriguez; Halicioglu, Ferda

    2011-01-01

    made ideal from the point of view of suicide (Yang and Lester, 1991). This research relates the suicide rates to harmonized unemployment and divorce rates to test the natural hypothesis statistically. We also address methodological flaws by earlier suicide studies by employing autoregressive.......64) and Japan has the highest (13.98) natural rate of suicides. In terms of the male natural suicide rates, the United Kingdom ranks the lowest (4.73) and Belgium ranks the top (15.44). As for the female natural suicide rates, Japan takes the lead (16.76) and Italy has the lowest (5.60). The results are also...

  1. Hypothesis to Explain the Size Effect Observed in APO-BMI Compression Tests

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schembri, Philip Edward [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Siranosian, Antranik Antonio [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Kingston, Lance Allen [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2015-01-07

    In 2013 compression tests were performed on cylindrical specimens of carbon-microballoon-APOBMI syntactic foam machined to different lengths (0.25, 0.5, and 2.8 inches1) (Kingston, 2013). In 2014 similar tests were performed on glass-microballoon-APO-BMI of different lengths (~0.15”, ~0.32”, and ~0.57”). In all these tests it was observed that, when strains were calculated from the platen displacement (corrected for machine compliance), the apparent Young’s modulus of the material decreased with specimen size, as shown in Table 1. The reason for this size effect was speculated to be a layer of damage on or near the top and bottom machined surfaces of the specimens (Kingston, Schembri, & Siranosian, 2014). This report examines that hypothesis in further detail.

  2. Hypothesis testing and power calculations for taxonomic-based human microbiome data.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patricio S La Rosa

    Full Text Available This paper presents new biostatistical methods for the analysis of microbiome data based on a fully parametric approach using all the data. The Dirichlet-multinomial distribution allows the analyst to calculate power and sample sizes for experimental design, perform tests of hypotheses (e.g., compare microbiomes across groups, and to estimate parameters describing microbiome properties. The use of a fully parametric model for these data has the benefit over alternative non-parametric approaches such as bootstrapping and permutation testing, in that this model is able to retain more information contained in the data. This paper details the statistical approaches for several tests of hypothesis and power/sample size calculations, and applies them for illustration to taxonomic abundance distribution and rank abundance distribution data using HMP Jumpstart data on 24 subjects for saliva, subgingival, and supragingival samples. Software for running these analyses is available.

  3. Exact Hypothesis Tests for Log-linear Models with exactLoglinTest

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brian Caffo

    2006-11-01

    Full Text Available This manuscript overviews exact testing of goodness of fit for log-linear models using the R package exactLoglinTest. This package evaluates model fit for Poisson log-linear models by conditioning on minimal sufficient statistics to remove nuisance parameters. A Monte Carlo algorithm is proposed to estimate P values from the resulting conditional distribution. In particular, this package implements a sequentially rounded normal approximation and importance sampling to approximate probabilities from the conditional distribution. Usually, this results in a high percentage of valid samples. However, in instances where this is not the case, a Metropolis Hastings algorithm can be implemented that makes more localized jumps within the reference set. The manuscript details how some conditional tests for binomial logit models can also be viewed as conditional Poisson log-linear models and hence can be performed via exactLoglinTest. A diverse battery of examples is considered to highlight use, features and extensions of the software. Notably, potential extensions to evaluating disclosure risk are also considered.

  4. Test Cases Reduction and Selection Optimization in Testing Web Services

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Izzat Alsmadi

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Software testing in web services environment faces different challenges in comparison with testing in traditional software environments. Regression testing activities are triggered based on software changes or evolutions. In web services, evolution is not a choice for service clients. They have always to use the current updated version of the software. In addition test execution or invocation is expensive in web services and hence providing algorithms to optimize test case generation and execution is vital. In this environment, we proposed several approach for test cases’ selection in web services’ regression testing. Testing in this new environment should evolve to be included part of the service contract. Service providers should provide data or usage sessions that can help service clients reduce testing expenses through optimizing the selected and executed test cases.

  5. Efficient Market Hypothesis in South Africa: Evidence from Linear and Nonlinear Unit Root Tests

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrew Phiri

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available This study investigates the weak form efficient market hypothesis (EMH for five generalized stock indices in the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE using weekly data collected from 31st January 2000 to 16th December 2014. In particular, we test for weak form market efficiency using a battery of linear and nonlinear unit root testing procedures comprising of the classical augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF tests, the two-regime threshold autoregressive (TAR unit root tests described in Enders and Granger (1998 as well as the three-regime unit root tests described in Bec, Salem, and Carrasco (2004. Based on our empirical analysis, we are able to demonstrate that whilst the linear unit root tests advocate for unit roots within the time series, the nonlinear unit root tests suggest that most stock indices are threshold stationary processes. These results bridge two opposing contentions obtained from previous studies by concluding that under a linear framework the JSE stock indices offer support in favour of weak form market efficiency whereas when nonlinearity is accounted for, a majority of the indices violate the weak form EMH.

  6. Using environmental niche models to test the 'everything is everywhere' hypothesis for Badhamia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aguilar, María; Fiore-Donno, Anna-Maria; Lado, Carlos; Cavalier-Smith, Thomas

    2014-04-01

    It is often discussed whether the biogeography of free-living protists is better explained by the 'everything is everywhere'(EiE) hypothesis, which postulates that only ecology drives their distribution, or by the alternative hypothesis of 'moderate endemicity' in which geographic barriers can limit their dispersal. To formally test this, it would be necessary not only to find organisms restricted to a geographical area but also to check for their presence in any other place with a similar ecology. We propose the use of environmental niche models to generate and test null EiE distributions. Here we have analysed the distribution of 18S rDNA variants (ribotypes) of the myxomycete Badhamia melanospora (belonging to the protozoan phylum Amoebozoa) using 125 specimens from 91 localities. Two geographically structured groups of ribotypes congruent with slight morphological differences in the spores can be distinguished. One group comprises all populations from Argentina and Chile, and the other is formed by populations from North America together with human-introduced populations from other parts of the world. Environmental climatic niche models constructed separately for the two groups have significant differences, but show several overlapping areas. However, only specimens from one group were found in an intensively surveyed area in South America where both niche models overlap. It can be concluded that everything is not everywhere for B. melanospora. This taxon constitutes a complex formed by at least two cryptic species that probably diverged allopatrically in North and South America.

  7. Using environmental niche models to test the ‘everything is everywhere' hypothesis for Badhamia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aguilar, María; Fiore-Donno, Anna-Maria; Lado, Carlos; Cavalier-Smith, Thomas

    2014-01-01

    It is often discussed whether the biogeography of free-living protists is better explained by the ‘everything is everywhere'(EiE) hypothesis, which postulates that only ecology drives their distribution, or by the alternative hypothesis of ‘moderate endemicity' in which geographic barriers can limit their dispersal. To formally test this, it would be necessary not only to find organisms restricted to a geographical area but also to check for their presence in any other place with a similar ecology. We propose the use of environmental niche models to generate and test null EiE distributions. Here we have analysed the distribution of 18S rDNA variants (ribotypes) of the myxomycete Badhamia melanospora (belonging to the protozoan phylum Amoebozoa) using 125 specimens from 91 localities. Two geographically structured groups of ribotypes congruent with slight morphological differences in the spores can be distinguished. One group comprises all populations from Argentina and Chile, and the other is formed by populations from North America together with human-introduced populations from other parts of the world. Environmental climatic niche models constructed separately for the two groups have significant differences, but show several overlapping areas. However, only specimens from one group were found in an intensively surveyed area in South America where both niche models overlap. It can be concluded that everything is not everywhere for B. melanospora. This taxon constitutes a complex formed by at least two cryptic species that probably diverged allopatrically in North and South America. PMID:24132078

  8. In silico model-based inference: a contemporary approach for hypothesis testing in network biology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klinke, David J

    2014-01-01

    Inductive inference plays a central role in the study of biological systems where one aims to increase their understanding of the system by reasoning backwards from uncertain observations to identify causal relationships among components of the system. These causal relationships are postulated from prior knowledge as a hypothesis or simply a model. Experiments are designed to test the model. Inferential statistics are used to establish a level of confidence in how well our postulated model explains the acquired data. This iterative process, commonly referred to as the scientific method, either improves our confidence in a model or suggests that we revisit our prior knowledge to develop a new model. Advances in technology impact how we use prior knowledge and data to formulate models of biological networks and how we observe cellular behavior. However, the approach for model-based inference has remained largely unchanged since Fisher, Neyman and Pearson developed the ideas in the early 1900s that gave rise to what is now known as classical statistical hypothesis (model) testing. Here, I will summarize conventional methods for model-based inference and suggest a contemporary approach to aid in our quest to discover how cells dynamically interpret and transmit information for therapeutic aims that integrates ideas drawn from high performance computing, Bayesian statistics, and chemical kinetics.

  9. Testing the EKC hypothesis by considering trade openness, urbanization, and financial development: the case of Turkey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ozatac, Nesrin; Gokmenoglu, Korhan K; Taspinar, Nigar

    2017-07-01

    This study investigates the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis for the case of Turkey from 1960 to 2013 by considering energy consumption, trade, urbanization, and financial development variables. Although previous literature examines various aspects of the EKC hypothesis for the case of Turkey, our model augments the basic model with several covariates to develop a better understanding of the relationship among the variables and to refrain from omitted variable bias. The results of the bounds test and the error correction model under autoregressive distributed lag mechanism suggest long-run relationships among the variables as well as proof of the EKC and the scale effect in Turkey. A conditional Granger causality test reveals that there are causal relationships among the variables. Our findings can have policy implications including the imposition of a "polluter pays" mechanism, such as the implementation of a carbon tax for pollution trading, to raise the urban population's awareness about the importance of adopting renewable energy and to support clean, environmentally friendly technology.

  10. Concurrent language and motor performance in bilinguals: a test of the age of acquisition hypothesis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Furtado, J C; Webster, W G

    1991-12-01

    The objective of the present study was to test the hypothesis that the age at which a second language is acquired influences the pattern of cerebral lateralization associated with that language. Subjects who differed in terms of the age at which they had acquired their second language (English or French) were tested on a concurrent task paradigm involving motor and language performance. Hemispheric processing was inferred from the pattern of lateralized and generalized interference between the tasks. No support was found for the age-of-acquisition hypothesis. Instead, the data indicated a language-specific effect. Regardless of age of acquisition and of whether the first language was English or French, bilingual subjects showed lateralized interference effects consistent with left-hemisphere processing when reading in English and translating from French into English, but no lateralized interference when reading in French and translating from English into French. Whether this effect reflects characteristics of the two languages or the influence of social factors in subject-experimenter interaction is considered.

  11. Testing the stem dominance hypothesis: meaning analysis of inflected words and prepositional phrases.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Minna Lehtonen

    Full Text Available We tested the hypothesis that lexical-semantic access of inflected words is governed by the word stem. Object drawings overlaid with a dot/arrow marking position/movement were matched with corresponding linguistic expressions like "from the house". To test whether the stem dominates lexical-semantic access irrespective of its position, we used Swedish prepositional phrases (locative information via preposition immediately preceding the stem or Finnish case-inflected words (locative information via suffix immediately following the stem. Both in monolingual Swedish and in bilingual Finnish-Swedish speakers, correct stems with incorrect prepositions/case-endings were hardest to reject. This finding supports the view that the stem is indeed the dominant unit in meaning access of inflected words.

  12. Testing the stem dominance hypothesis: meaning analysis of inflected words and prepositional phrases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lehtonen, Minna; Harrer, Gabor; Wande, Erling; Laine, Matti

    2014-01-01

    We tested the hypothesis that lexical-semantic access of inflected words is governed by the word stem. Object drawings overlaid with a dot/arrow marking position/movement were matched with corresponding linguistic expressions like "from the house". To test whether the stem dominates lexical-semantic access irrespective of its position, we used Swedish prepositional phrases (locative information via preposition immediately preceding the stem) or Finnish case-inflected words (locative information via suffix immediately following the stem). Both in monolingual Swedish and in bilingual Finnish-Swedish speakers, correct stems with incorrect prepositions/case-endings were hardest to reject. This finding supports the view that the stem is indeed the dominant unit in meaning access of inflected words.

  13. TEST OF THE CATCH-UP HYPOTHESIS IN AFRICAN AGRICULTURAL GROWTH RATES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kalu Ukpai IFEGWU

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available The paper tested the catch-up hypothesis in agricultural growth rates of twenty-six African countries. Panel data used was drawn from the Food and Agricultural Organization Statistics (FAOSTAT of the United Nations. The Data Envelopment Analysis Method for measuring productivity was used to estimate productivity growth rates. The cross-section framework consisting of sigma-convergence and beta-convergence was employed to test the catching up process. Catching up is said to exist if the value of beta is negative and significant. Since catching up does not necessarily imply narrowing of national productivity inequalities, sigma-convergence which measures inequality, was estimated for the same variables. The results showed evidence of the catch-up process, but failed to find a narrowing of productivity inequalities among countries.

  14. Efficient Monte Carlo evaluation of resampling-based hypothesis tests with applications to genetic epidemiology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fung, Wing K; Yu, Kexin; Yang, Yingrui; Zhou, Ji-Yuan

    2016-08-08

    Monte Carlo evaluation of resampling-based tests is often conducted in statistical analysis. However, this procedure is generally computationally intensive. The pooling resampling-based method has been developed to reduce the computational burden but the validity of the method has not been studied before. In this article, we first investigate the asymptotic properties of the pooling resampling-based method and then propose a novel Monte Carlo evaluation procedure namely the n-times pooling resampling-based method. Theorems as well as simulations show that the proposed method can give smaller or comparable root mean squared errors and bias with much less computing time, thus can be strongly recommended especially for evaluating highly computationally intensive hypothesis testing procedures in genetic epidemiology.

  15. Understanding the Role of P Values and Hypothesis Tests in Clinical Research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mark, Daniel B; Lee, Kerry L; Harrell, Frank E

    2016-12-01

    P values and hypothesis testing methods are frequently misused in clinical research. Much of this misuse appears to be owing to the widespread, mistaken belief that they provide simple, reliable, and objective triage tools for separating the true and important from the untrue or unimportant. The primary focus in interpreting therapeutic clinical research data should be on the treatment ("oomph") effect, a metaphorical force that moves patients given an effective treatment to a different clinical state relative to their control counterparts. This effect is assessed using 2 complementary types of statistical measures calculated from the data, namely, effect magnitude or size and precision of the effect size. In a randomized trial, effect size is often summarized using constructs, such as odds ratios, hazard ratios, relative risks, or adverse event rate differences. How large a treatment effect has to be to be consequential is a matter for clinical judgment. The precision of the effect size (conceptually related to the amount of spread in the data) is usually addressed with confidence intervals. P values (significance tests) were first proposed as an informal heuristic to help assess how "unexpected" the observed effect size was if the true state of nature was no effect or no difference. Hypothesis testing was a modification of the significance test approach that envisioned controlling the false-positive rate of study results over many (hypothetical) repetitions of the experiment of interest. Both can be helpful but, by themselves, provide only a tunnel vision perspective on study results that ignores the clinical effects the study was conducted to measure.

  16. Wide but not impermeable: Testing the riverine barrier hypothesis for an Amazonian plant species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nazareno, Alison G; Dick, Christopher W; Lohmann, Lúcia G

    2017-07-01

    Wallace's riverine barrier hypothesis postulates that large rivers, such as the Amazon and its tributaries, reduce or prevent gene flow between populations on opposite banks, leading to allopatry and areas of species endemism occupying interfluvial regions. Several studies have shown that two major tributaries, Rio Branco and Rio Negro, are important barriers to gene flow for birds, amphibians and primates. No botanical studies have considered the potential role of the Rio Branco as a barrier, while a single botanical study has evaluated the Rio Negro as a barrier. We studied an Amazon shrub, Amphirrhox longifolia (A. St.-Hil.) Spreng (Violaceae), as a model to test the riverine barrier hypothesis. Twenty-six populations of A. longifolia were sampled on both banks of the Rio Branco and Rio Negro in the core Amazon Basin. Double-digest RADseq was used to identify 8,010 unlinked SNP markers from the nuclear genome of 156 individuals. Data relating to population structure support the hypothesis that the Rio Negro acted as a significant genetic barrier for A. longifolia. On the other hand, no genetic differentiation was detected among populations spanning the narrower Rio Branco, which is a tributary of the Rio Negro. This study shows that the strength of riverine barriers for Amazon plants is dependent on the width of the river separating populations and species-specific dispersal traits. Future studies of plants with contrasting life history traits will further improve our understanding of the landscape genetics and allopatric speciation history of Amazon plant diversity. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  17. The ecological stoichiometry of toxins produced by harmful cyanobacteria: an experimental test of the carbonnutrient balance hypothesis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Waal, van de D.B.; Verspagen, J.M.H.; Lürling, M.F.L.L.W.; Donk, van E.; Visser, P.M.; Huisman, J.

    2009-01-01

    The elemental composition of primary producers reflects the availability of light, carbon and nutrients in their environment. According to the carbon-nutrient balance hypothesis, this has implications for the production of secondary metabolites. To test this hypothesis, we investigated a family of t

  18. Does Merit-Based Aid Improve College Affordability? Testing the Bennett Hypothesis in the Era of Merit-Based Aid

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Jungmin

    2016-01-01

    This study tested the Bennett hypothesis by examining whether four-year colleges changed listed tuition and fees, the amount of institutional grants per student, and room and board charges after their states implemented statewide merit-based aid programs. According to the Bennett hypothesis, increases in government financial aid make it easier for…

  19. A GENERAL RELATIVISTIC NULL HYPOTHESIS TEST WITH EVENT HORIZON TELESCOPE OBSERVATIONS OF THE BLACK HOLE SHADOW IN Sgr A*

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Psaltis, Dimitrios; Özel, Feryal; Chan, Chi-Kwan; Marrone, Daniel P. [Astronomy Department, University of Arizona, 933 N. Cherry Ave, Tucson, AZ 85721 (United States)

    2015-12-01

    The half opening angle of a Kerr black hole shadow is always equal to (5 ± 0.2)GM/Dc{sup 2}, where M is the mass of the black hole and D is its distance from the Earth. Therefore, measuring the size of a shadow and verifying whether it is within this 4% range constitutes a null hypothesis test of general relativity. We show that the black hole in the center of the Milky Way, Sgr A*, is the optimal target for performing this test with upcoming observations using the Event Horizon Telescope (EHT). We use the results of optical/IR monitoring of stellar orbits to show that the mass-to-distance ratio for Sgr A* is already known to an accuracy of ∼4%. We investigate our prior knowledge of the properties of the scattering screen between Sgr A* and the Earth, the effects of which will need to be corrected for in order for the black hole shadow to appear sharp against the background emission. Finally, we explore an edge detection scheme for interferometric data and a pattern matching algorithm based on the Hough/Radon transform and demonstrate that the shadow of the black hole at 1.3 mm can be localized, in principle, to within ∼9%. All these results suggest that our prior knowledge of the properties of the black hole, of scattering broadening, and of the accretion flow can only limit this general relativistic null hypothesis test with EHT observations of Sgr A* to ≲10%.

  20. Why does Income Relate to Depressive Symptoms? Testing the Income Rank Hypothesis Longitudinally.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Osafo Hounkpatin, Hilda; Wood, Alex M; Brown, Gordon D A; Dunn, Graham

    This paper reports a test of the relative income rank hypothesis of depression, according to which it is the rank position of an individual's income amongst a comparison group, rather than the individual's absolute income, that will be associated with depressive symptoms. A new methodology is developed to test between psychosocial and material explanations of why income relates to well-being. This method was used to test the income rank hypothesis as applied to depressive symptoms. We used data from a cohort of 10,317 individuals living in Wisconsin who completed surveys in 1992 and 2003. The utility assumed to arise from income was represented with a constant relative risk aversion function to overcome limitations of previous work in which inadequate specification of the relationship between absolute income and well-being may have inappropriately favoured relative income specifications. We compared models in which current and future depressive symptoms were predicted from: (a) income utility alone, (b) income rank alone, (c) the transformed difference between the individual's income and the mean income of a comparison group and (d) income utility, income rank and distance from the mean jointly. Model comparison overcomes problems involving multi-collinearity amongst the predictors. A rank-only model was consistently supported. Similar results were obtained for the association between depressive symptoms and wealth and rank of wealth in a cohort of 32,900 British individuals who completed surveys in 2002 and 2008. We conclude that it is the rank of a person's income or wealth within a social comparison group, rather than income or wealth themselves or their deviations from the mean within a reference group, that is more strongly associated with depressive symptoms.

  1. Sexual Dimorphism of Head Size in Phrynocephalus przewalskii:Testing the Food Niche Divergence Hypothesis

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Wei ZHAO; Naifa LIU

    2013-01-01

    Sexual size dimorphism (SSD) is a general phenomenon in lizards, and can evolve through sexual selection or natural selection. But natural selection, which was thought to operate mainly through reducing the competition be-tween the two sexes (niche divergence hypothesis), gave rise to a lot of controversy. We tested the niche divergence hypothesis in the toad-headed lizard Phrynocephalus przewalskii by comparing diet composition and prey sizes between males and females. The species was found to be sexual dimorphic, with males having relatively larger snout-vent length, head width, head length, and tail length, while females have relatively larger abdomen length. Based on analysis of 93 studied stomachs, a total of 1359 prey items were identiifed. The most common prey items were formicid, lygaeid and tenebrionid. The two sexes did not differ in the relative proportions of prey size categories they consumed and the dietary overlap based on prey species was high (O=0.989). In addition, the meal size, the volume or any maximal dimension of the largest prey item in the stomach was not explained by the sexes. According to our results, food niche divergence might not play an important role in the SSD evolution of P. przewalskii.

  2. Small Stress Change Triggering a Big Earthquake: a Test of the Critical Point Hypothesis for Earthquakes

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    万永革; 吴忠良; 周公威

    2003-01-01

    Whether or not a small stress change can trigger a big earthquake is one of the most important problems related to the critical point hypothesis for earthquakes. We investigate global earthquakes with different focal mechanisms which have different levels of ambient shear stress. This ambient stress level is the stress level required by the earthquakes for their occurrence. Earthquake pairs are studied to see whether the occurrence of the preceding event encourages the occurrence of the succeeding one in terms of the Coulomb stress triggering. It is observed that the stress triggering effect produced by the change of Coulomb failure stress in the same order of magnitudes,about 10-2 MPa, is distinctly different for different focal mechanisms, and thus for different ambient stress levels.For non-strike-slip earthquakes with a relatively low ambient stress level, the triggering effect is more evident,while for strike-slip earthquakes with a relatively high ambient stress level, there is no evident triggering effect.This water level test provides an observational support to the critical point hypothesis for earthquakes.

  3. Extracurricular participation and academic outcomes: testing the over-scheduling hypothesis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fredricks, Jennifer A

    2012-03-01

    There is a growing concern that some youth are overscheduled in extracurricular activities, and that this increasing involvement has negative consequences for youth functioning. This article used data from the Educational Longitudinal Study (ELS: 2002), a nationally representative and ethnically diverse longitudinal sample of American high school students, to evaluate this hypothesis (N = 13,130; 50.4% female). On average, 10th graders participated in between 2 and 3 extracurricular activities, for an average of 5 h per week. Only a small percentage of 10th graders reported participating in extracurricular activities at high levels. Moreover, a large percentage of the sample reported no involvement in school-based extracurricular contexts in the after-school hours. Controlling for some demographic factors, prior achievement, and school size, the breadth (i.e., number of extracurricular activities) and the intensity (i.e., time in extracurricular activities) of participation at 10th grade were positively associated with math achievement test scores, grades, and educational expectations at 12th grade. Breadth and intensity of participation at 10th grade also predicted educational status at 2 years post high school. In addition, the non-linear function was significant. At higher breadth and intensity, the academic adjustment of youth declined. Implications of the findings for the over-scheduling hypothesis are discussed.

  4. Gratitude facilitates private conformity: A test of the social alignment hypothesis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ng, Jomel W X; Tong, Eddie M W; Sim, Dael L Y; Teo, Samantha W Y; Loy, Xingqi; Giesbrecht, Timo

    2017-03-01

    Past research has established clear support for the prosocial function of gratitude in improving the well-being of others. The present research provides evidence for another hypothesized function of gratitude: the social alignment function, which enhances the tendency of grateful individuals to follow social norms. We tested the social alignment hypothesis of gratitude in 2 studies with large samples. Using 2 different conformity paradigms, participants were subjected to a color judgment task (Experiment 1) and a material consumption task (Experiment 2). They were provided with information showing choices allegedly made by others, but were allowed to state their responses in private. Supporting the social alignment hypothesis, the results showed that induced gratitude increased private conformity. Specifically, participants induced to feel gratitude were more likely to conform to the purportedly popular choice, even if the option was factually incorrect (Experiment 1). This effect appears to be specific to gratitude; induction of joy produced significantly less conformity than gratitude (Experiment 2). We discuss whether the social alignment function provides a behavioral pathway in the role of gratitude in building social relationships. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

  5. TESTS OF THE PLANETARY HYPOTHESIS FOR PTFO 8-8695b

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yu, Liang; Winn, Joshua N.; Rappaport, Saul; Dai, Fei; Triaud, Amaury H. M. J. [Department of Physics, and Kavli Institute for Astrophysics and Space Research, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA 02139 (United States); Gillon, Michaël; Delrez, Laetitia; Jehin, Emmanuel; Lendl, Monika [Institut d’Astrophysique et de Géophysique, Université de Liège, allée du 6 Août 17, B-4000 Liège (Belgium); Albrecht, Simon [Stellar Astrophysics Centre, Department of Physics and Astronomy, Aarhus University, Ny Munkegade 120, DK-8000 Aarhus C (Denmark); Bieryla, Allyson; Holman, Matthew J.; Montet, Benjamin T. [Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, Cambridge, MA 02138 (United States); Hillenbrand, Lynne [Cahill Center for Astronomy and Astrophysics, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, 91125 (United States); Howard, Andrew W. [Institute for Astronomy, University of Hawaii, 2680 Woodlawn Drive, Honolulu, HI 96822 (United States); Huang, Chelsea X. [Department of Astrophysical Sciences, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544 (United States); Isaacson, Howard; Sanchis-Ojeda, Roberto [Department of Astronomy, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720 (United States); Muirhead, Philip, E-mail: yuliang@mit.edu [Department of Astronomy, Boston University, 725 Commonwealth Ave., Boston, MA 02215 (United States)

    2015-10-10

    The T Tauri star PTFO 8-8695 exhibits periodic fading events that have been interpreted as the transits of a giant planet on a precessing orbit. Here we present three tests of the planet hypothesis. First, we sought evidence for the secular changes in light-curve morphology that are predicted to be a consequence of orbital precession. We observed 28 fading events spread over several years and did not see the expected changes. Instead, we found that the fading events are not strictly periodic. Second, we attempted to detect the planet's radiation, based on infrared observations spanning the predicted times of occultations. We ruled out a signal of the expected amplitude. Third, we attempted to detect the Rossiter–McLaughlin effect by performing high-resolution spectroscopy throughout a fading event. No effect was seen at the expected level, ruling out most (but not all) possible orientations for the hypothetical planetary orbit. Our spectroscopy also revealed strong, time-variable, high-velocity Hα and Ca H and K emission features. All these observations cast doubt on the planetary hypothesis, and suggest instead that the fading events represent starspots, eclipses by circumstellar dust, or occultations of an accretion hotspot.

  6. Testing Bergmann's rule and the Rosenzweig hypothesis with craniometric studies of the South American sea lion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sepúlveda, Maritza; Oliva, Doris; Duran, L René; Urra, Alejandra; Pedraza, Susana N; Majluf, Patrícia; Goodall, Natalie; Crespo, Enrique A

    2013-04-01

    We tested the validity of Bergmann's rule and Rosenzweig's hypothesis through an analysis of the geographical variation of the skull size of Otaria flavescens along the entire distribution range of the species (except Brazil). We quantified the sizes of 606 adult South American sea lion skulls measured in seven localities of Peru, Chile, Uruguay, Argentina, and the Falkland/Malvinas Islands. Geographical and environmental variables included latitude, longitude, and monthly minimum, maximum, and mean air and ocean temperatures. We also included information on fish landings as a proxy for productivity. Males showed a positive relationship between condylobasal length (CBL) and latitude, and between CBL and the six temperature variables. By contrast, females showed a negative relationship between CBL and the same variables. Finally, female skull size showed a significant and positive correlation with fish landings, while males did not show any relationship with this variable. The body size of males conformed to Bergmann's rule, with larger individuals found in southern localities of South America. Females followed the converse of Bergmann's rule at the intraspecific level, but showed a positive relationship with the proxy for productivity, thus supporting Rosenzweig's hypothesis. Differences in the factors that drive body size in females and males may be explained by their different life-history strategies. Our analyses demonstrate that latitude and temperature are not the only factors that explain spatial variation in body size: others such as food availability are also important for explaining the ecogeographical patterns found in O. flavescens.

  7. Note on the Cardoso-Pani-Rico parametrization to test the Kerr black hole hypothesis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bambi, Cosimo

    2014-08-01

    The construction of a generic parametrization to describe the spacetime geometry around astrophysical black hole candidates is an important step to test the Kerr black hole hypothesis. In the last few years, the Johannsen-Psaltis metric has been the most common framework to study possible deviations from the Kerr solution with present and near-future observations. Recently, Cardoso, Pani, and Rico have proposed a more general parametrization. The aim of the present paper is to study this new metric in a specific context, namely, the thermal spectrum of geometrically thin and optically thick accretion disks. The most relevant finding is that the spacetime geometry around objects that look like very-fast-rotating Kerr black holes may still have large deviations from the Kerr solution. This is not the case with the Johannsen-Psaltis metric, which means the latter is missing an important class of non-Kerr spacetimes.

  8. A test of the cognitive content specificity hypothesis in depression and anxiety.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lamberton, Anna; Oei, Tian P S

    2008-03-01

    The present study tested the cognitive content specificity hypothesis (CCSH) to assess whether anxiety and depression can be differentiated on the basis of cognitive disturbance. One hundred and thirty five depressed participants were administered the Beck depression inventory (BDI), the Beck anxiety inventory (BAI), the automatic thoughts questionnaire (ATQ) and the anxious self-statements questionnaire (ASSQ). It was hypothesised that depressive cognitions would be specifically related to, and predictive of, depressive (but not anxiety) symptoms in a depressed sample. Conversely, it was predicted that anxiety cognitions would be specifically related to, and predictive of, anxiety (but not depressive) symptoms in a depressed sample. Results revealed that the ATQ was the sole predictor of the BDI and similarly, the ASSQ was the sole predictor of the BAI. These findings support the CCSH in depression and provide an integrative framework for a greater understanding of the relationship between anxiety and depression.

  9. Testing the Cuckoldry Risk Hypothesis of Partner Sexual Coercion in Community and Forensic Samples

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joseph A. Camilleri

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available Evolutionary theory has informed the investigation of male sexual coercion but has seldom been applied to the analysis of sexual coercion within established couples. The cuckoldry risk hypothesis, that sexual coercion is a male tactic used to reduce the risk of extrapair paternity, was tested in two studies. In a community sample, indirect cues of infidelity predicted male propensity for sexual coaxing in the relationship, and direct cues predicted propensity for sexual coercion. In the forensic sample, we found that most partner rapists experienced cuckoldry risk prior to committing their offence and experienced more types of cuckoldry risk events than non-sexual partner assaulters. These findings suggest that cuckoldry risk influences male sexual coercion in established sexual relationships.

  10. NSCT Domain Additive Watermark Detection Using RAO Hypothesis Test and Cauchy Distribution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hongbo Bi

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available We presented a RAO hypothesis detector by modeling Cauchy distribution for the Nonsubsampled Contourlet Transform (NSCT subband coefficients in the field of additive spread spectrum image watermarking. Firstly, the NSCT subband coefficients were modeled following the Cauchy distributions, and the Fit of Goodness shows that Cauchy distribution fits the NSCT subband coefficients more accurately than the Generalized Gaussian Distribution (GGD commonly used. Secondly, a blind RAO test watermark detector was derived in the NSCT domain, which does not need the knowledge of embedding strength at the receiving end. Finally, compared to the other three state-of-art detectors, the robustness of the proposed watermarking scheme was evaluated when the watermarked images were attacked by JPEG compression, random noise, low pass filtering, and median filtering. Experimental results show that, compared with the other three detectors, the proposed RAO detector guarantees the lower probability of miss under the given probability of false alarm.

  11. A mechanistic molecular test of the plant-sanction hypothesis in legume-rhizobia mutualism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marco, Diana E.; Pérez-Arnedo, Rebeca; Hidalgo-Perea, Ángeles; Olivares, José; Ruiz-Sainz, José E.; Sanjuán, Juan

    2009-09-01

    The origin and persistence of mutualism is difficult to explain because of the widespread occurrence of exploitative, 'cheating' partners. As a policing strategy stabilising intraspecific cooperation, host sanctions against non-N 2 fixing, cheating symbionts have been proposed to stabilise mutualism in legume-rhizobium symbiosis. Mechanism of penalisations would include decreased nodular rhizobial viability and/or early nodule senescence. We tested these potential mechanisms of penalisations in split-root experiments using two soybean varieties and two rhizobial strains, a cooperative, normal N 2-fixing strain and an isogenic non-fixing derivative. We found no differences in the number of viable rhizobia recovered from nodules and no differential expression of a nodular senescence molecular marker. Thus, our results do not support the hypothesis of plant sanctions acting against cheating rhizobia in our experimental conditions.

  12. Changes in gene expression induced by aromatic amine drugs: testing the danger hypothesis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ng, Winnie; Uetrecht, Jack

    2013-01-01

    Virtually all drugs that contain a primary aromatic amine are associated with a high incidence of idiosyncratic drug reactions (IDRs), suggesting that this functional group has biological effects that may be used as biomarkers to predict IDR risk. Most IDRs exhibit evidence of immune involvement and the ability of aromatic amines to form reactive metabolites and redox cycle may be responsible for initiation of an immune response through induction of cell stress, as postulated by the Danger Hypothesis. If true, danger signals could be biomarkers of IDR risk. A previous attempt to test the Danger Hypothesis found that sulfamethoxazole (SMX), the only aromatic amine tested, was also the only drug not associated with an increase of cell stress genes in mice. To ensure that these observations were not species-specific, and to determine biomarkers of IDR risk common to aromatic amines, rats were treated with SMX and two other aromatic amine drugs, dapsone (DDS) and aminoglutethimide (AMG), and hepatic gene expression was determined using microarrays. As in mice, SMX induced minimal gene changes in the rat, and none indicated cell stress, whereas DDS and AMG induced several changes including up-regulation of enzymes such as aldo-keto reductase, glutathione-S-transferase, and aldehyde dehydrogenase, which may represent danger signals. Early insulin-induced hepatic gene (Eiih) was up-regulated by all three drugs. Some mRNA changes were observed in the Keap-1-Nrf2-ARE pathway; however, the pattern was significantly different for each drug. Overall, the most salient finding was that the changes in the liver were minimal, even though aromatic amines cause a high incidence of IDRs. The liver generates a large number of reactive species; however, the ability of aromatic amines to be bioactivated by cells of the immune system may be why they cause a high incidence of IDRs.

  13. Individual diet variation in a marine fish assemblage: Optimal Foraging Theory, Niche Variation Hypothesis and functional identity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cachera, M.; Ernande, B.; Villanueva, M. C.; Lefebvre, S.

    2017-02-01

    Individual diet variation (i.e. diet variation among individuals) impacts intra- and inter-specific interactions. Investigating its sources and relationship with species trophic niche organization is important for understanding community structure and dynamics. Individual diet variation may increase with intra-specific phenotypic (or "individual state") variation and habitat variability, according to Optimal Foraging Theory (OFT), and with species trophic niche width, according to the Niche Variation Hypothesis (NVH). OFT proposes "proximate sources" of individual diet variation such as variations in habitat or size whereas NVH relies on "ultimate sources" related to the competitive balance between intra- and inter-specific competitions. The latter implies as a corollary that species trophic niche overlap, taken as inter-specific competition measure, decreases as species niche width and individual niche variation increase. We tested the complementary predictions of OFT and NVH in a marine fish assemblage using stomach content data and associated trophic niche metrics. The NVH predictions were tested between species of the assemblage and decomposed into a between- and a within-functional group component to assess the potential influence of species' ecological function. For most species, individual diet variation and niche overlap were consistently larger than expected. Individual diet variation increased with intra-specific variability in individual state and habitat, as expected from OFT. It also increased with species niche width but in compliance with the null expectation, thus not supporting the NVH. In contrast, species niche overlap increased significantly less than null expectation with both species niche width and individual diet variation, supporting NVH corollary. The between- and within-functional group components of the NVH relationships were consistent with those between species at the assemblage level. Changing the number of prey categories used to

  14. Testing of hypothesis of two-dimensional random variables independence on the basis of algorithm of pattern recognition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lapko, A. V.; Lapko, V. A.; Yuronen, E. A.

    2016-11-01

    The new technique of testing of hypothesis of random variables independence is offered. Its basis is made by nonparametric algorithm of pattern recognition. The considered technique doesn't demand sampling of area of values of random variables.

  15. GSMA: Gene Set Matrix Analysis, An Automated Method for Rapid Hypothesis Testing of Gene Expression Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chris Cheadle

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: Microarray technology has become highly valuable for identifying complex global changes in gene expression patterns. The assignment of functional information to these complex patterns remains a challenging task in effectively interpreting data and correlating results from across experiments, projects and laboratories. Methods which allow the rapid and robust evaluation of multiple functional hypotheses increase the power of individual researchers to data mine gene expression data more efficiently.Results: We have developed (gene set matrix analysis GSMA as a useful method for the rapid testing of group-wise up- or downregulation of gene expression simultaneously for multiple lists of genes (gene sets against entire distributions of gene expression changes (datasets for single or multiple experiments. The utility of GSMA lies in its flexibility to rapidly poll gene sets related by known biological function or as designated solely by the end-user against large numbers of datasets simultaneously.Conclusions: GSMA provides a simple and straightforward method for hypothesis testing in which genes are tested by groups across multiple datasets for patterns of expression enrichment.

  16. Feasibility of Combining Common Data Elements Across Studies to Test a Hypothesis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Corwin, Elizabeth J; Moore, Shirley M; Plotsky, Andrea; Heitkemper, Margaret M; Dorsey, Susan G; Waldrop-Valverde, Drenna; Bailey, Donald E; Docherty, Sharron L; Whitney, Joanne D; Musil, Carol M; Dougherty, Cynthia M; McCloskey, Donna J; Austin, Joan K; Grady, Patricia A

    2017-05-01

    The purpose of this article is to describe the outcomes of a collaborative initiative to share data across five schools of nursing in order to evaluate the feasibility of collecting common data elements (CDEs) and developing a common data repository to test hypotheses of interest to nursing scientists. This initiative extended work already completed by the National Institute of Nursing Research CDE Working Group that successfully identified CDEs related to symptoms and self-management, with the goal of supporting more complex, reproducible, and patient-focused research. Two exemplars describing the group's efforts are presented. The first highlights a pilot study wherein data sets from various studies by the represented schools were collected retrospectively, and merging of the CDEs was attempted. The second exemplar describes the methods and results of an initiative at one school that utilized a prospective design for the collection and merging of CDEs. Methods for identifying a common symptom to be studied across schools and for collecting the data dictionaries for the related data elements are presented for the first exemplar. The processes for defining and comparing the concepts and acceptable values, and for evaluating the potential to combine and compare the data elements are also described. Presented next are the steps undertaken in the second exemplar to prospectively identify CDEs and establish the data dictionaries. Methods for common measurement and analysis strategies are included. Findings from the first exemplar indicated that without plans in place a priori to ensure the ability to combine and compare data from disparate sources, doing so retrospectively may not be possible, and as a result hypothesis testing across studies may be prohibited. Findings from the second exemplar, however, indicated that a plan developed prospectively to combine and compare data sets is feasible and conducive to merged hypothesis testing. Although challenges exist in

  17. Testing the axial dipole hypothesis for the Moon by modeling the direction of crustal magnetization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oliveira, J. S.; Wieczorek, M. A.

    2017-02-01

    Orbital magnetic field data show that portions of the Moon's crust are strongly magnetized, and paleomagnetic data of lunar samples suggest that Earth strength magnetic fields could have existed during the first several hundred million years of lunar history. The origin of the fields that magnetized the crust are not understood and could be the result of either a long-lived core-generated dynamo or transient fields associated with large impact events. Core dynamo models usually predict that the field would be predominantly dipolar, with the dipole axis aligned with the rotation axis. We test this hypothesis by modeling the direction of crustal magnetization using a global magnetic field model of the Moon derived from Lunar Prospector and Kaguya magnetometer data. We make use of a model that assumes that the crust is unidirectionally magnetized. The intensity of magnetization can vary with the crust, and the best fitting direction of magnetization is obtained from a nonnegative least squares inversion. From the best fitting magnetization direction we obtain the corresponding north magnetic pole predicted by an internal dipolar field. Some of the obtained paleopoles are associated with the current geographic poles, while other well-constrained anomalies have paleopoles at equatorial latitudes, preferentially at 90° east and west longitudes. One plausible hypothesis for this distribution of paleopoles is that the Moon possessed a long-lived dipolar field but that the dipole was not aligned with the rotation axis as a result of large-scale heat flow heterogeneities at the core-mantle boundary.

  18. Testing a growth efficiency hypothesis with continental-scale phenological variations of common and cloned plants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liang, Liang; Schwartz, Mark D

    2014-10-01

    Variation in the timing of plant phenology caused by phenotypic plasticity is a sensitive measure of how organisms respond to weather and climate variability. Although continental-scale gradients in climate and consequential patterns in plant phenology are well recognized, the contribution of underlying genotypic difference to the geography of phenology is less well understood. We hypothesize that different temperate plant genotypes require varying amount of heat energy for resuming annual growth and reproduction as a result of adaptation and other ecological and evolutionary processes along climatic gradients. In particular, at least for some species, the growing degree days (GDD) needed to trigger the same spring phenology events (e.g., budburst and flower bloom) may be less for individuals originated from colder climates than those from warmer climates. This variable intrinsic heat energy requirement in plants can be characterized by the term growth efficiency and is quantitatively reflected in the timing of phenophases-earlier timing indicates higher efficiency (i.e., less heat energy needed to trigger phenophase transitions) and vice versa compared to a standard reference (i.e., either a uniform climate or a uniform genotype). In this study, we tested our hypothesis by comparing variations of budburst and bloom timing of two widely documented plants from the USA National Phenology Network (i.e., red maple-Acer rubrum and forsythia-Forsythia spp.) with cloned indicator plants (lilac-Syringa x chinensis 'Red Rothomagensis') at multiple eastern US sites. Our results indicate that across the accumulated temperature gradient, the two non-clonal plants showed significantly more gradual changes than the cloned plants, manifested by earlier phenology in colder climates and later phenology in warmer climates relative to the baseline clone phenological response. This finding provides initial evidence supporting the growth efficiency hypothesis, and suggests more work is

  19. Optimization in Software Testing Using Metaheuristics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    FREITAS, F. G.

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available There are Software Test problems that may not be solved with traditional software engineering techniques.Nevertheless, such problems may be modeled mathematically in order to be solved with mathematical optimization, specially with the use of metaheuristics. In this context, a new research field called Search based Software Engineering (SBSE, which deals with solving software engineering problems by means of optimization techniques, has emerged. Given the significance of the Software Testing phase, a specific subarea called Search Based Software Testing (SBST has become increasingly important. This paper presents the current state of the area and summarizes its future potential. Initially, we describe the main metaheuristics techniques used in the area. We follow with the presentation of the state of the art of SBST through the description of the main problems that have already been modeled and the results achieved. From the results, we can realize the promise of this field.

  20. Why do polygynous ungulates segregate in space? Testing the activity-budget hypothesis in soay sheep

    OpenAIRE

    2007-01-01

    Sexual segregation is the behavior in which animals of different sex in a species live in separate groups outside the mating season. Recently a new concept, namely, the >activity-budget hypothesis,> has claimed to be the ultimate explanation of this behavior. The new hypothesis explains not only sexual segregation, but also segregation between animals of different size within sex (i.e., social segregation). The hypothesis states that the activity patterns of animals will differ when big diffe...

  1. Colour vision in ADHD: part 1--testing the retinal dopaminergic hypothesis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Soyeon; Al-Haj, Mohamed; Chen, Samantha; Fuller, Stuart; Jain, Umesh; Carrasco, Marisa; Tannock, Rosemary

    2014-10-24

    To test the retinal dopaminergic hypothesis, which posits deficient blue color perception in ADHD, resulting from hypofunctioning CNS and retinal dopamine, to which blue cones are exquisitely sensitive. Also, purported sex differences in red color perception were explored. 30 young adults diagnosed with ADHD and 30 healthy young adults, matched on age and gender, performed a psychophysical task to measure blue and red color saturation and contrast discrimination ability. Visual function measures, such as the Visual Activities Questionnaire (VAQ) and Farnsworth-Munsell 100 hue test (FMT), were also administered. Females with ADHD were less accurate in discriminating blue and red color saturation relative to controls but did not differ in contrast sensitivity. Female control participants were better at discriminating red saturation than males, but no sex difference was present within the ADHD group. Poorer discrimination of red as well as blue color saturation in the female ADHD group may be partly attributable to a hypo-dopaminergic state in the retina, given that color perception (blue-yellow and red-green) is based on input from S-cones (short wavelength cone system) early in the visual pathway. The origin of female superiority in red perception may be rooted in sex-specific functional specialization in hunter-gather societies. The absence of this sexual dimorphism for red colour perception in ADHD females warrants further investigation.

  2. Polygyny among the Tsimane of Bolivia: an improved method for testing the polygyny-fertility hypothesis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winking, Jeffrey; Stieglitz, Jonathan; Kurten, Jenna; Kaplan, Hillard; Gurven, Michael

    2013-04-01

    The polygyny-fertility hypothesis states that polygyny is associated with reduced fertility for women and is supported by a large body of literature. This finding is important, because theoretical models of polygyny often differentiate systems based on the degree to which women are forced or willingly choose to enter polygynous marriages. The fact that polygyny tends to be associated with reduced fertility has been presented as evidence that polygyny is often less favourable for women, and that women must, therefore, be pressured into accepting such arrangements. Previous studies, however, have been hampered by the non-random assignment of women into monogamous and polygynous unions (i.e. self-selection), as differences between these groups of women might explain some of the effects. Furthermore, the vast majority of such studies focus on sub-Saharan populations. We address these problems in our analysis of women's fertility in polygynous marriages among the Tsimane of Bolivia. We offer a more robust method for assessing the impact of polygynous marriage on reproductive outcomes by testing for intra-individual fertility effects among first wives as they transition from monogamous to polygynous marriage. We report a significant link between polygyny and reduced fertility when including all cases of polygyny; however, this association disappears when testing only for intra-individual effects.

  3. Turbulent mix or ion diffusion? Hypothesis testing in ICF capsule implosions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoffman, N. M.; Zimmerman, G. B.; Vander Wiel, S. A.; Herrmann, H. W.; Kim, Y. H.

    2016-10-01

    Turbulent mixing at a contact surface combines materials that are initially separated across the contact. While the mixing layer may contain the initially separate materials (each assumed to be composed of a number of distinct ion species) in a range of concentrations, from zero to 100%, the concentration of individual ion species within each material, relative to one another, is not altered by turbulent mixing alone. Ion diffusion likewise causes mixing at a contact, but does alter the relative concentration of ion species within each material, since the relative diffusivity of ions, in a fixed background plasma, varies as A 1 / 2/Z2. Recent hydrodynamically equivalent capsule implosions allow a test of the influence of these processes on observed capsule behavior. We use numerical simulations and hypothesis-testing methods to show quantitatively that turbulent mixing with ion diffusion is a better explanation of observed behavior than turbulent mixing alone (subject to the assumptions inherent in the computational models of these processes.) Research supported by US DOE under contract DE-AC52-06NA25396.

  4. Polygyny among the Tsimane of Bolivia: an improved method for testing the polygyny–fertility hypothesis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winking, Jeffrey; Stieglitz, Jonathan; Kurten, Jenna; Kaplan, Hillard; Gurven, Michael

    2013-01-01

    The polygyny–fertility hypothesis states that polygyny is associated with reduced fertility for women and is supported by a large body of literature. This finding is important, because theoretical models of polygyny often differentiate systems based on the degree to which women are forced or willingly choose to enter polygynous marriages. The fact that polygyny tends to be associated with reduced fertility has been presented as evidence that polygyny is often less favourable for women, and that women must, therefore, be pressured into accepting such arrangements. Previous studies, however, have been hampered by the non-random assignment of women into monogamous and polygynous unions (i.e. self-selection), as differences between these groups of women might explain some of the effects. Furthermore, the vast majority of such studies focus on sub-Saharan populations. We address these problems in our analysis of women's fertility in polygynous marriages among the Tsimane of Bolivia. We offer a more robust method for assessing the impact of polygynous marriage on reproductive outcomes by testing for intra-individual fertility effects among first wives as they transition from monogamous to polygynous marriage. We report a significant link between polygyny and reduced fertility when including all cases of polygyny; however, this association disappears when testing only for intra-individual effects. PMID:23407840

  5. Testing the enemy release hypothesis in a native insect species with an expanding range

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Julia J. Mlynarek

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available The enemy release hypothesis (ERH predicts that the spread of (invasive species will be facilitated by release from their enemies as they occupy new areas. However, the ERH is rarely tested on native (non-invasive, long established species with expanding or shifting ranges. I tested the ERH for a native damselfly (Enallagma clausum whose range has recently expanded in western Canada, with respect to its water mite and gregarine parasites. Parasitism levels (prevalence and intensity were also compared between E. clausum and a closely related species, Enallagma boreale, which has long been established in the study region and whose range is not shifting. A total of 1,150 damselflies were collected at three ‘old’ sites for E. clausum in Saskatchewan, and three ‘new’ sites in Alberta. A little more than a quarter of the damselflies collected were parasitized with, on average, 18 water mite individuals, and 20% were parasitized by, on average, 10 gregarine individuals. I assessed whether the differences between levels of infection (prevalence and intensity were due to site type or host species. The ERH was not supported: Enallagma clausum has higher or the same levels of parasitism in new sites than old sites. However, E. boreale seems to be benefitting from the recent range expansion of a native, closely related species through ecological release from its parasites because the parasites may be choosing to infest the novel, potentially naïve, host instead of the well-established host.

  6. Globigerinoides ruber morphotypes in the Gulf of Mexico: a test of null hypothesis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thirumalai, Kaustubh; Richey, Julie N.; Quinn, Terrence M.; Poore, Richard Z.

    2014-01-01

    Planktic foraminifer Globigerinoides ruber (G. ruber), due to its abundance and ubiquity in the tropical/subtropical mixed layer, has been the workhorse of paleoceanographic studies investigating past sea-surface conditions on a range of timescales. Recent geochemical work on the two principal white G. ruber (W) morphotypes, sensu stricto (ss) and sensu lato (sl), has hypothesized differences in seasonal preferences or calcification depths, implying that reconstructions using a non-selective mixture of morphotypes could potentially be biased. Here, we test these hypotheses by performing stable isotope and abundance measurements on the two morphotypes in sediment trap, core-top, and downcore samples from the northern Gulf of Mexico. As a test of null hypothesis, we perform the same analyses on couplets of G. ruber (W) specimens with attributes intermediate to the holotypic ss and sl morphologies. We find no systematic or significant offsets in coeval ss-sl δ18O, and δ13C. These offsets are no larger than those in the intermediate pairs. Coupling our results with foraminiferal statistical model INFAUNAL, we find that contrary to previous work elsewhere, there is no evidence for discrepancies in ss-sl calcifying depth habitat or seasonality in the Gulf of Mexico.

  7. An electromyographic study of social facilitation: a test of the "mere presence' hypothesis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chapman, Antony J.

    1974-01-01

    The present experiment is concerned with providing psychophysiological support for a drive theory of social facilitation and with distinguishing between the mere presence and evaluation apprehension hypothesis. (Author)

  8. A General Relativistic Null Hypothesis Test with Event Horizon Telescope Observations of the black-hole shadow in Sgr A*

    CERN Document Server

    Psaltis, Dimitrios; Chan, Chi-Kwan; Marrone, Daniel P

    2014-01-01

    (Abridged) In General Relativity, the shadow cast by a black hole has a size that depends very weakly on its spin or the orientation of the observer. The half opening angle of the shadow is always equal to 5+-0.2 GM/Dc^2, where M is the mass of the black hole and D is its distance from the Earth. Therefore, measuring the size of the shadow of a black hole of known mass-to-distance ratio and verifying whether it is within the 4% predicted range constitutes a null hypothesis test of GR. We show that Sgr A* is the optimal target for performing this test with the Event Horizon Telescope. We use the results of monitoring of stellar orbits to show that the ratio M/D for Sgr A* is already known to an accuracy of ~6%. We investigate our prior knowledge of the scattering screen towards Sgr A, the effects of which will need to be corrected for in order for the black-hole shadow to appear sharp against the background emission. We argue that, even though the properties of the scattering ellipse at longer wavelengths are ...

  9. Depression as sickness behavior? A test of the host defense hypothesis in a high pathogen population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stieglitz, Jonathan; Trumble, Benjamin C; Thompson, Melissa Emery; Blackwell, Aaron D; Kaplan, Hillard; Gurven, Michael

    2015-10-01

    Sadness is an emotion universally recognized across cultures, suggesting it plays an important functional role in regulating human behavior. Numerous adaptive explanations of persistent sadness interfering with daily functioning (hereafter "depression") have been proposed, but most do not explain frequent bidirectional associations between depression and greater immune activation. Here we test several predictions of the host defense hypothesis, which posits that depression is part of a broader coordinated evolved response to infection or tissue injury (i.e. "sickness behavior") that promotes energy conservation and reallocation to facilitate immune activation. In a high pathogen population of lean and relatively egalitarian Bolivian forager-horticulturalists, we test whether depression and its symptoms are associated with greater baseline concentration of immune biomarkers reliably associated with depression in Western populations (i.e. tumor necrosis factor alpha [TNF-α], interleukin-1 beta [IL-1β], interleukin-6 [IL-6], and C-reactive protein [CRP]). We also test whether greater pro-inflammatory cytokine responses to ex vivo antigen stimulation are associated with depression and its symptoms, which is expected if depression facilitates immune activation. These predictions are largely supported in a sample of older adult Tsimane (mean±SD age=53.2±11.0, range=34-85, n=649) after adjusting for potential confounders. Emotional, cognitive and somatic symptoms of depression are each associated with greater immune activation, both at baseline and in response to ex vivo stimulation. The association between depression and greater immune activation is therefore not unique to Western populations. While our findings are not predicted by other adaptive hypotheses of depression, they are not incompatible with those hypotheses and future research is necessary to isolate and test competing predictions.

  10. Stochastic optimization of laboratory test workflow at metallurgical testing centers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Tošenovský

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available The objective of the paper is to present a way to shorten the time required to perform laboratory tests of materials in metallurgy. The paper finds a relation between the time to perform a test of materials and the number of technicians carrying out the test. The relation can be used to optimize the number of technicians. The approach is based on probability theory, as the amount of material to be tested is unknown in advance, and uses powerful modelling techniques involving the generalized estimating equations.

  11. Location of rut stands vs.mating opportunities in Przewalski's gazelle: A field test of the "Resource-based Hypothesis" and "Female Traffic Version of the Hotspot Hypothesis"

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Zhangqiang YOU; Zhigang JIANG; Chunwang LI

    2011-01-01

    We studied the mating tactics of Przewalski's gazelle on the Qinghal-Tibetan Plateau from 2002 to 2005.Przewalski's gazelle is a cluster mating animal whereby female groups,including juveniles,travel to and from their resting grounds along luted routes and dominant males stand on or near these travel routes during rut.To explain rut patterns in male gazelles,we tested predictions arising from the "Resource-based Hypothesis" and "Female Traffic Version of the Hotspot Hypothesis".We marked the location of each rut stand and female travel route,measured food availability in each rut stand and recorded the mating opportunities of rut stand owners.We also conducted a field experiment to force female groups to change their daily travel route,and observed whether males abandon their original rut stands and shift their rut stands to new travel routes of females during the 3rd rut.We found that:(1) male gazelle defending rut stands closer to a female travel route had a higher chance of mating; (2) food resources within rut stands had no effect on mating opportunities of the rut stand owner; (3) when the female travel route was obstructed,female groups changed grazing sites,and all males abandoned their original rut stands and defended new rut stands along the new female travel route.In conclusion,the location of rut stands in relation to female travel routes is the ultimate factor for consolidating mating opportunities in male gazelle,supporting the "Female Route Version of Hotspot Hypothesis"[Current Zoology 57 (6):701-708,2011].

  12. The Late Ordovician crisis: the Large Igneous Province hypothesis tested by global carbon cycle modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lefebvre, Vincent; Servais, Thomas; François, Louis; Averbuch, Olivier

    2010-05-01

    The causes of the well-known Late Ordovician-Hirnantian glaciation remain largely debated. This global cooling event is generally attributed to a severe decrease of atmospheric pCO2 during a time of general greenhouse climate but its duration is not fully determined. The climate perturbation is synchronous with one of the biggest biotic crisis of the Earth history. Some authors have shown that, considering the Ashgillian paleogeography, a drop in pCO2 below a threshold of 8x to 10x PAL (Present Atmospheric Level) may induce a decrease in temperature in high latitudes so that the installation of an ice-sheet on Gondwana could be possible. Such a process requires an intensification of silicate weathering and/or organic carbon burial that are the two major processes potentially driving a decrease in atmospheric pCO2 at the geologic time scale. The Late Ordovician is known to be a period of high mantellic activity marked by a lack of reversal magnetic field and high volcanic activity. Barnes (2004) and Courtillot and Olson (2007) link this process to a superplume event that may give rise to continental basalt flooding. In the present study, we tested this hypothesis with a global carbon cycle numerical box-model coupled with an Energy Balance Climate Model. The Model is an upgrade of that used by Grard et al. (2005) to simulate the environmental impact of the Siberian traps at the P/T boundary. The configuration of the box-model has been set using the Late Ordovician paleogeography. In each oceanic box, the model calculates the evolution of carbon, phosphorus and oxygen concentrations and alkalinity. It also calculates atmospheric pCO2, atmospheric and oceanic δ13C. We tested different scenarios of Large Igneous Province (LIP) emplacements and organic carbon cycle interactions simulating atmospheric pCO2 drops of amplitude large enough to produce the Hirnantian glaciation. We show that the hypothesis of low latitude LIP well accounts for the Late Ordovician climate

  13. On the Flexibility of Social Source Memory: A Test of the Emotional Incongruity Hypothesis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bell, Raoul; Buchner, Axel; Kroneisen, Meike; Giang, Trang

    2012-01-01

    A popular hypothesis in evolutionary psychology posits that reciprocal altruism is supported by a cognitive module that helps cooperative individuals to detect and remember cheaters. Consistent with this hypothesis, a source memory advantage for faces of cheaters (better memory for the cheating context in which these faces were encountered) was…

  14. Auditory frequency discrimination in adult dyslexics: A test of the anchoring hypothesis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wijnen, F.N.K.; Kappers, A.M.L.; Vlutters, L.D.; Winkel, S.

    2012-01-01

    Purpose: A recent hypothesis ascribes dyslexia to a perceptual anchoring deficit. Supporting results have so far been obtained only in children with dyslexia and additional learning difficulties, but the hypothesis has been argued to apply to all individuals with dyslexia. Method: The authors measur

  15. Auditory Frequency Discrimination in Adults with Dyslexia: A Test of the Anchoring Hypothesis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wijnen, Frank; Kappers, Astrid M. L.; Vlutters, Leoni D.; Winkel, Sven

    2012-01-01

    Purpose: A recent hypothesis ascribes dyslexia to a perceptual anchoring deficit. Supporting results have so far been obtained only in children with dyslexia and additional learning difficulties, but the hypothesis has been argued to apply to all individuals with dyslexia. Method: The authors measured auditory frequency discrimination thresholds…

  16. Auditory Frequency Discrimination in Adults with Dyslexia: A Test of the Anchoring Hypothesis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wijnen, Frank; Kappers, Astrid M. L.; Vlutters, Leoni D.; Winkel, Sven

    2012-01-01

    Purpose: A recent hypothesis ascribes dyslexia to a perceptual anchoring deficit. Supporting results have so far been obtained only in children with dyslexia and additional learning difficulties, but the hypothesis has been argued to apply to all individuals with dyslexia. Method: The authors measured auditory frequency discrimination thresholds…

  17. Testing the cultural group selection hypothesis in Northern Ghana and Oaxaca.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Acedo-Carmona, Cristina; Gomila, Antoni

    2016-01-01

    We examine the cultural group selection (CGS) hypothesis in light of our fieldwork in Northern Ghana and Oaxaca, highly multi-ethnic regions. Our evidence fails to corroborate two central predictions of the hypothesis: that the cultural group is the unit of evolution, and that cultural homogenization is to be expected as the outcome of a selective process.

  18. Role for circadian clock genes in seasonal timing: testing the Bunning hypothesis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mirko Pegoraro

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available A major question in chronobiology focuses around the "Bünning hypothesis" which implicates the circadian clock in photoperiodic (day-length measurement and is supported in some systems (e.g. plants but disputed in others. Here, we used the seasonally-regulated thermotolerance of Drosophila melanogaster to test the role of various clock genes in day-length measurement. In Drosophila, freezing temperatures induce reversible chill coma, a narcosis-like state. We have corroborated previous observations that wild-type flies developing under short photoperiods (winter-like exhibit significantly shorter chill-coma recovery times (CCRt than flies that were raised under long (summer-like photoperiods. Here, we show that arrhythmic mutant strains, per01, tim01 and ClkJrk, as well as variants that speed up or slow down the circadian period, disrupt the photoperiodic component of CCRt. Our results support an underlying circadian function mediating seasonal daylength measurement and indicate that clock genes are tightly involved in photo- and thermo-periodic measurements.

  19. Testing the thermal-niche oxygen-squeeze hypothesis for estuarine striped bass

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kraus, Richard T.; Secor, D.H.; Wingate, Rebecca L.

    2015-01-01

    In many stratified coastal ecosystems, conceptual and bioenergetics models predict seasonal reduction in quality and quantity of fish habitat due to high temperatures and hypoxia. We tested these predictions using acoustic telemetry of 2 to 4 kg striped bass (Morone saxatilis Walbaum) and high-resolution spatial water quality sampling in the Patuxent River, a sub-estuary of the Chesapeake Bay, during 2008 and 2009. Striped bass avoided hypoxic (dissolved oxygen ≤2 mg·l−1) subpycnocline waters, but frequently occupied habitats with high temperatures (>25 °C) in the summer months, as cooler habitats were typically not available. Using traditional concepts of the seasonal thermal-niche oxygen-squeeze, most of the Patuxent estuary would beconsidered unsuitable habitat for adult striped bass during summer. Application of a bioenergetics model revealed that habitats selected by striped bass during summer would support positive growth rates assuming fish could feed at one-half ofmaximum consumption. Occupancy of the estuary during summer by striped bass in this study was likely facilitated by sufficient prey and innate tolerance of high temperatures by sub-adult fish of the size range that we tagged. Our results help extend the thermalniche oxygen-squeeze hypothesis to native populations of striped bass in semi-enclosed coastal systems. Tolerance of for supraoptimal temperatures in our study supports recent suggestions by others that the thermal-niche concept for striped bass should be revised to include warmer temperatures.

  20. Handling realistic assumptions in hypothesis testing of 3D co-localization of genomic elements.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paulsen, Jonas; Lien, Tonje G; Sandve, Geir Kjetil; Holden, Lars; Borgan, Ornulf; Glad, Ingrid K; Hovig, Eivind

    2013-05-01

    The study of chromatin 3D structure has recently gained much focus owing to novel techniques for detecting genome-wide chromatin contacts using next-generation sequencing. A deeper understanding of the architecture of the DNA inside the nucleus is crucial for gaining insight into fundamental processes such as transcriptional regulation, genome dynamics and genome stability. Chromatin conformation capture-based methods, such as Hi-C and ChIA-PET, are now paving the way for routine genome-wide studies of chromatin 3D structure in a range of organisms and tissues. However, appropriate methods for analyzing such data are lacking. Here, we propose a hypothesis test and an enrichment score of 3D co-localization of genomic elements that handles intra- or interchromosomal interactions, both separately and jointly, and that adjusts for biases caused by structural dependencies in the 3D data. We show that maintaining structural properties during resampling is essential to obtain valid estimation of P-values. We apply the method on chromatin states and a set of mutated regions in leukemia cells, and find significant co-localization of these elements, with varying enrichment scores, supporting the role of chromatin 3D structure in shaping the landscape of somatic mutations in cancer.

  1. Time-frequency intracranial source localization of feedback-related EEG activity in hypothesis testing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Papo, David; Douiri, Abdel; Bouchet, Florence; Bourzeix, Jean-Claude; Caverni, Jean-Paul; Baudonnière, Pierre-Marie

    2007-06-01

    The neural correlates of the response to performance feedback have been the object of numerous neuroimaging studies. However, the precise timing and functional meaning of the resulting activations are poorly understood. We studied the electroencephalographic response time locked to positive and negative performance feedback in a hypothesis testing paradigm. The signal was convoluted with a family of complex wavelets. Intracranial sources of activity at various narrow-band frequencies were estimated in the 100- to 400-ms time window following feedback onset. Positive and negative feedback were associated to 1) early parahippocampo-cingular sources of alpha oscillations, more posteriorly located and long lasting for negative feedback and to 2) late partially overlapping neural circuits comprising regions in prefrontal, cingular, and temporal cortices but operating at feedback-specific latencies and frequencies. The results were interpreted in the light of neurophysiological models of feedback and were used to discuss methodological issues in the study of high-level cognitive functions, including reasoning and decision making.

  2. Predictors of orbital convergence in primates: a test of the snake detection hypothesis of primate evolution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wheeler, Brandon C; Bradley, Brenda J; Kamilar, Jason M

    2011-09-01

    Traditional explanations for the evolution of high orbital convergence and stereoscopic vision in primates have focused on how stereopsis might have aided early primates in foraging or locomoting in an arboreal environment. It has recently been suggested that predation risk by constricting snakes was the selective force that favored the evolution of orbital convergence in early primates, and that later exposure to venomous snakes favored further degrees of convergence in anthropoid primates. Our study tests this snake detection hypothesis (SDH) by examining whether orbital convergence among extant primates is indeed associated with the shared evolutionary history with snakes or the risk that snakes pose for a given species. We predicted that orbital convergence would be higher in species that: 1) have a longer history of sympatry with venomous snakes, 2) are likely to encounter snakes more frequently, 3) are less able to detect or deter snakes due to group size effects, and 4) are more likely to be preyed upon by snakes. Results based on phylogenetically independent contrasts do not support the SDH. Orbital convergence shows no relationship to the shared history with venomous snakes, likelihood of encountering snakes, or group size. Moreover, those species less likely to be targeted as prey by snakes show significantly higher values of orbital convergence. Although an improved ability to detect camouflaged snakes, along with other cryptic stimuli, is likely a consequence of increased orbital convergence, this was unlikely to have been the primary selective force favoring the evolution of stereoscopic vision in primates.

  3. Testing assumptions of the enemy release hypothesis: generalist versus specialist enemies of the grass Brachypodium sylvaticum.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Halbritter, Aud H; Carroll, George C; Güsewell, Sabine; Roy, Bitty A

    2012-01-01

    The enemy release hypothesis (ERH) suggests greater success of species in an invaded range due to release from natural enemies. The ERH assumes there will be more specialist enemies in the native range and that generalists will have an equal effect in both ranges. We tested these assumptions with the grass Brachypodium sylvaticum in the native range (Switzerland) and invaded range (Oregon, USA). We assessed all the kinds of damage present (caused by fungi, insects, mollusk and deer) on both leaves and seeds at 10 sites in each range and correlated damage with host fitness. Only two of the 20 fungi found on leaves were specialist pathogens, and these were more frequent in the native range. Conversely there was more insect herbivory on leaves in the invaded range. All fungi and insects found on seeds were generalists. More species of fungi were found on seeds in the native range, and a higher proportion of them were pathogenic than in the invaded range. There were more kinds of enemies in the native range, where the plants had lower fitness, in accordance with the ERH. However, contrary to assumptions of the ERH, generalists appear to be equally or more important than specialists in reducing host fitness.

  4. FADTTSter: accelerating hypothesis testing with functional analysis of diffusion tensor tract statistics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Noel, Jean; Prieto, Juan C.; Styner, Martin

    2017-03-01

    Functional Analysis of Diffusion Tensor Tract Statistics (FADTTS) is a toolbox for analysis of white matter (WM) fiber tracts. It allows associating diffusion properties along major WM bundles with a set of covariates of interest, such as age, diagnostic status and gender, and the structure of the variability of these WM tract properties. However, to use this toolbox, a user must have an intermediate knowledge in scripting languages (MATLAB). FADTTSter was created to overcome this issue and make the statistical analysis accessible to any non-technical researcher. FADTTSter is actively being used by researchers at the University of North Carolina. FADTTSter guides non-technical users through a series of steps including quality control of subjects and fibers in order to setup the necessary parameters to run FADTTS. Additionally, FADTTSter implements interactive charts for FADTTS' outputs. This interactive chart enhances the researcher experience and facilitates the analysis of the results. FADTTSter's motivation is to improve usability and provide a new analysis tool to the community that complements FADTTS. Ultimately, by enabling FADTTS to a broader audience, FADTTSter seeks to accelerate hypothesis testing in neuroimaging studies involving heterogeneous clinical data and diffusion tensor imaging. This work is submitted to the Biomedical Applications in Molecular, Structural, and Functional Imaging conference. The source code of this application is available in NITRC.

  5. Testing the Prey-Trap Hypothesis at Two Wildlife Conservancies in Kenya.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marc Dupuis-Desormeaux

    Full Text Available Protecting an endangered and highly poached species can conflict with providing an open and ecologically connected landscape for coexisting species. In Kenya, about half of the black rhino (Diceros bicornis live in electrically fenced private conservancies. Purpose-built fence-gaps permit some landscape connectivity for elephant while restricting rhino from escaping. We monitored the usage patterns at these gaps by motion-triggered cameras and found high traffic volumes and predictable patterns of prey movement. The prey-trap hypothesis (PTH proposes that predators exploit this predictable prey movement. We tested the PTH at two semi-porous reserves using two different methods: a spatial analysis and a temporal analysis. Using spatial analysis, we mapped the location of predation events with GPS and looked for concentration of kill sites near the gaps as well as conducting clustering and hot spot analysis to determine areas of statistically significant predation clustering. Using temporal analysis, we examined the time lapse between the passage of prey and predator and searched for evidence of active prey seeking and/or predator avoidance. We found no support for the PTH and conclude that the design of the fence-gaps is well suited to promoting connectivity in these types of conservancies.

  6. Testing the Axion-Conversion Hypothesis of 3.5 keV Emission with Polarization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gong, Yan; Chen, Xuelei; Feng, Hua

    2017-02-01

    The recently measured 3.5 keV line in a number of galaxy clusters, the Andromeda galaxy (M31), and the Milky Way (MW) center can be well accounted for by a scenario in which dark matter decays to axionlike particles (ALPs) and subsequently convert to 3.5 keV photons in magnetic fields of galaxy clusters or galaxies. We propose to test this hypothesis by performing x-ray polarization measurements. Since ALPs can only couple to photons with a polarization orientation parallel to the magnetic field, we can confirm or reject this model by measuring the polarization of the 3.5 keV line and compare it to the orientation of the magnetic field. We discuss luminosity and polarization measurements for both a galaxy cluster and spiral galaxy, and provide a general relation between the polarization and galaxy inclination angle. This effect is marginally detectable with x-ray polarimetry detectors currently under development, such as the enhanced X-ray Timing and Polarization satellite, the Imaging X-ray Polarimetry Explorer and the X-ray Imaging Polarimetry Explorer. The sensitivity can be further improved in the future with detectors of a larger effective area or better energy resolutions.

  7. Testing the Prey-Trap Hypothesis at Two Wildlife Conservancies in Kenya

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dupuis-Desormeaux, Marc; Davidson, Zeke; Mwololo, Mary; Kisio, Edwin; Taylor, Sam; MacDonald, Suzanne E.

    2015-01-01

    Protecting an endangered and highly poached species can conflict with providing an open and ecologically connected landscape for coexisting species. In Kenya, about half of the black rhino (Diceros bicornis) live in electrically fenced private conservancies. Purpose-built fence-gaps permit some landscape connectivity for elephant while restricting rhino from escaping. We monitored the usage patterns at these gaps by motion-triggered cameras and found high traffic volumes and predictable patterns of prey movement. The prey-trap hypothesis (PTH) proposes that predators exploit this predictable prey movement. We tested the PTH at two semi-porous reserves using two different methods: a spatial analysis and a temporal analysis. Using spatial analysis, we mapped the location of predation events with GPS and looked for concentration of kill sites near the gaps as well as conducting clustering and hot spot analysis to determine areas of statistically significant predation clustering. Using temporal analysis, we examined the time lapse between the passage of prey and predator and searched for evidence of active prey seeking and/or predator avoidance. We found no support for the PTH and conclude that the design of the fence-gaps is well suited to promoting connectivity in these types of conservancies. PMID:26489024

  8. Tests of the planetary hypothesis for PTFO 8-8695b

    CERN Document Server

    Yu, Liang; Gillon, Michaël; Albrecht, Simon; Rappaport, Saul; Bieryla, Allyson; Dai, Fei; Delrez, Laetitia; Hillenbrand, Lynne; Holman, Matthew J; Howard, Andrew W; Huang, Chelsea X; Isaacson, Howard; Jehin, Emmanuel; Lendl, Monika; Montet, Benjamin T; Muirhead, Philip; Sanchis-Ojeda, Roberto; Triaud, Amaury H M J

    2015-01-01

    The T Tauri star PTFO 8-8695 exhibits periodic fading events that have been interpreted as the transits of a giant planet on a precessing orbit. Here we present three tests of the planet hypothesis. First, we sought evidence for the secular changes in light-curve morphology that are predicted to be a consequence of orbital precession. We observed 28 fading events spread over several years, and did not see the expected changes. Instead we found that the fading events are not strictly periodic. Second, we attempted to detect the planet's radiation, based on infrared observations spanning the predicted times of occultations. We ruled out a signal of the expected amplitude. Third, we attempted to detect the Rossiter-McLaughlin effect by performing high-resolution spectroscopy throughout a fading event. No effect was seen at the expected level, ruling out most (but not all) possible orientations for the hypothetical planetary orbit. Our spectroscopy also revealed strong, time-variable, high-velocity H{\\alpha} and ...

  9. Oral Sex, Semen Displacement, and Sexual Arousal: Testing the Ejaculate Adjustment Hypothesis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael N. Pham

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Male Indian Flying Foxes (Pteropus giganteus that spend more time performing oral sex on a female also spend more time copulating with her. In humans, men who spend more time copulating with their regular partner also perform more “semen-displacing” copulatory behaviors (e.g., deeper, more vigorous penile thrusting. We investigated whether men who spend more time performing oral sex on their regular partner also spend more time copulating with her and perform more semen-displacing copulatory behaviors. We proposed and tested the ejaculate adjustment hypothesis for men's copulatory behaviors: Men adjust their copulatory behaviors to increase their sexual arousal and consequent ejaculate quality, thereby increasing their chances of success in sperm competition. Two hundred and thirty-three men in a committed, heterosexual relationship responded to questions about their copulatory behavior and sexual arousal during their most recent sexual encounter with their long-term partner. The results indicated that men who spend more time performing oral sex on their partner also spend more time copulating with her, perform more semen-displacing copulatory behaviors, and report greater sexual arousal. We discuss limitations to the current research and highlight the heuristic value of sperm competition theory for understanding human sexual behaviors.

  10. Tracing the footsteps of Sherlock Holmes: cognitive representations of hypothesis testing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Wallendael, L R; Hastie, R

    1990-05-01

    A well-documented phenomenon in opinion-revision literature is subjects' failure to revise probability estimates for an exhaustive set of mutually exclusive hypotheses in a complementary manner. However, prior research has not addressed the question of whether such behavior simply represents a misunderstanding of mathematical rules, or whether it is a consequence of a cognitive representation of hypotheses that is at odds with the Bayesian notion of a set relationship. Two alternatives to the Bayesian representation, a belief system (Shafer, 1976) and a system of independent hypotheses, were proposed, and three experiments were conducted to examine cognitive representations of hypothesis sets in the testing of multiple competing hypotheses. Subjects were given brief murder mysteries to solve and allowed to request various types of information about the suspects; after having received each new piece of information, subjects rated each suspect's probability of being the murderer. Presence and timing of suspect eliminations were varied in the first two experiments; the final experiment involved the varying of percentages of clues that referred to more than one suspect (for example, all of the female suspects). The noncomplementarity of opinion revisions remained a strong phenomenon in all conditions. Information-search data refuted the idea that subjects represented hypotheses as a Bayesian set; further study of the independent hypotheses theory and Shaferian belief functions as descriptive models is encouraged.

  11. Optimal Testing of Reed-Muller Codes

    CERN Document Server

    Bhattacharya, Arnab; Schoenebeck, Grant; Sudan, Madhu; Zuckerman, David

    2009-01-01

    We consider the problem of testing if a given function $f : \\F_2^n \\to \\F_2$ is close to any degree $d$ polynomial in $n$ variables, also known as the Reed-Muller testing problem. Alon et al. \\cite{AKKLR} proposed and analyzed a natural $2^{d+1}$-query test for this property and showed that it accepts every degree $d$ polynomial with probability 1, while rejecting functions that are $\\Omega(1)$-far with probability $\\Omega(1/(d 2^{d}))$. We give an asymptotically optimal analysis of their test showing that it rejects functions that are (even only) $\\Omega(2^{-d})$-far with $\\Omega(1)$-probability (so the rejection probability is a universal constant independent of $d$ and $n$). Our proof works by induction on $n$, and yields a new analysis of even the classical Blum-Luby-Rubinfeld \\cite{BLR} linearity test, for the setting of functions mapping $\\F_2^n$ to $\\F_2$. The optimality follows from a tighter analysis of counterexamples to the "inverse conjecture for the Gowers norm" constructed by \\cite{GT,LMS}. Our ...

  12. Environmental domains and range-limiting mechanisms: testing the Abundant Centre Hypothesis using southern African sandhoppers.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simone Baldanzi

    Full Text Available Predicting shifts of species geographical ranges is a fundamental challenge for conservation ecologists given the great complexity of factors involved in setting range limits. Distributional patterns are frequently modelled to "simplify" species responses to the environment, yet the central mechanisms that drive a particular pattern are rarely understood. We evaluated the distributions of two sandhopper species (Crustacea, Amphipoda, Talitridae, Talorchestia capensis and Africorchestia quadrispinosa along the Namibian and South African coasts, encompassing three biogeographic regions influenced by two different oceanographic systems, the Benguela and Agulhas currents. We aimed to test whether the Abundant Centre Hypothesis (ACH can explain the distributions of these species' abundances, sizes and sex ratios and examined which environmental parameters influence/drive these distributions. Animals were collected during a once-off survey at 29 sites over c.3500 km of coastline. The ACH was tested using a non-parametric constraint space analysis of the goodness of fit of five hypothetical models. Distance Based Linear Modelling (DistLM was performed to evaluate which environmental traits influenced the distribution data. Abundance, size and sex ratio showed different patterns of distribution. A ramped model fitted the abundance (Ramped North and size (Ramped South distribution for A. quadrispinosa. The Inverse Quadratic model fitted the size distribution of T. capensis. Beach slope, salinity, sand temperature and percentage of detritus found on the shore at the time of collection played important roles in driving the abundance of A. quadrispinosa. T. capensis was mainly affected by salinity and the morphodynamic state of the beach. Our results provided only some support for the ACH predictions. The DistLM confirmed that the physical state of the beach is an important factor for sandy beach organisms. The effect of salinity and temperature suggest

  13. Underwater Dendrochronology of the Sierra Nevada: Testing the Medieval Mega-Drought Hypothesis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biondi, F.; Kleppe, J. A.; Brothers, D.; Kent, G.

    2006-12-01

    As stated in the NAS STR Report, "regional and large-scale reconstructions of changes in other climatic variables, such as precipitation, over the last 2,000 years would provide a valuable complement to those made for temperature." In this context, we focus on the 'Medieval Mega-drought Hypothesis', which is based on radiocarbon dating of dead trees and stumps found underwater in Sierra Nevada lakes and streambeds, and states that century-long dry periods caused lakes to retreat and streams to dry up, with the most recent mega-droughts happening during medieval times. While several paleoclimatic records support this hypothesis, some do not, and the possibility exists that geomorphic processes, such as landslides caused by seismic events, were responsible for the presence of trees and stumps under current bodies of water. Given the relevance of this hypothesis, not only for sustainable water management but also for social stability and security, it is necessary to test it beyond reasonable doubt. One way to do so is by measuring the location, orientation, and time of origin of underwater trees, to determine if they were transported or grew in situ. For example, during 2005 wood samples were retrieved from submerged trees at Fallen Leaf Lake, California. The trees had been previously located and documented using an ROV that can obtain high resolution color video, and collect small surface samples using a gripper, down to a water depth of about 150 m. For tree-ring dating, a reference chronology from AD 543 to 2003 was developed using live and dead western juniper trees located near the lake. One underwater sample, i.e. a branch cross section that included 69 rings, was then dated to AD 1085-1153. This shows that it is feasible to obtain calendar dates and continuous ring-width series from underwater trees in the Sierra Nevada. Submerged trees in Fallen Leaf Lake were mapped in summer 2006 using an EdgeTech 4200 side-scan system capable of decimeter resolution. The 5

  14. Optimization models for flight test scheduling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holian, Derreck

    As threats around the world increase with nations developing new generations of warfare technology, the Unites States is keen on maintaining its position on top of the defense technology curve. This in return indicates that the U.S. military/government must research, develop, procure, and sustain new systems in the defense sector to safeguard this position. Currently, the Lockheed Martin F-35 Joint Strike Fighter (JSF) Lightning II is being developed, tested, and deployed to the U.S. military at Low Rate Initial Production (LRIP). The simultaneous act of testing and deployment is due to the contracted procurement process intended to provide a rapid Initial Operating Capability (IOC) release of the 5th Generation fighter. For this reason, many factors go into the determination of what is to be tested, in what order, and at which time due to the military requirements. A certain system or envelope of the aircraft must be assessed prior to releasing that capability into service. The objective of this praxis is to aide in the determination of what testing can be achieved on an aircraft at a point in time. Furthermore, it will define the optimum allocation of test points to aircraft and determine a prioritization of restrictions to be mitigated so that the test program can be best supported. The system described in this praxis has been deployed across the F-35 test program and testing sites. It has discovered hundreds of available test points for an aircraft to fly when it was thought none existed thus preventing an aircraft from being grounded. Additionally, it has saved hundreds of labor hours and greatly reduced the occurrence of test point reflight. Due to the proprietary nature of the JSF program, details regarding the actual test points, test plans, and all other program specific information have not been presented. Generic, representative data is used for example and proof-of-concept purposes. Apart from the data correlation algorithms, the optimization associated

  15. Test of the Korman hypothesis: performance, self-esteem, and job satisfaction among dentists.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaldenberg, D O; Becker, B W

    1991-08-01

    Contrary to the Korman hypothesis, this study of 416 dentists showed positive relationships between job satisfaction and productivity-based measures of performance for individuals of both low and high self-esteem.

  16. Ethnic Group Identification and Group Evaluation Among Minority and Majority Groups : Testing the Multiculturalism Hypothesis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verkuyten, Maykel J. A. M.

    2005-01-01

    Following social identity theory, the author hypothesized that members of minority groups are more likely than majority group members to endorse multiculturalism more strongly and assimilationist thinking less strongly. In addition, the multiculturalism hypothesis proposes that the more minority gro

  17. Possible Solution to Publication Bias Through Bayesian Statistics, Including Proper Null Hypothesis Testing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Konijn, Elly A.; van de Schoot, Rens; Winter, Sonja D.; Ferguson, Christopher J.

    2015-01-01

    The present paper argues that an important cause of publication bias resides in traditional frequentist statistics forcing binary decisions. An alternative approach through Bayesian statistics provides various degrees of support for any hypothesis allowing balanced decisions and proper null hypothes

  18. Community-Driven Hypothesis Testing: A Solution for the Tragedy of the Anticommons.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palma-Oliveira, José Manuel; Trump, Benjamin D; Wood, Matthew D; Linkov, Igor

    2017-07-11

    Shared ownership of property and resources is a longstanding challenge throughout history that has been amplifying with the increasing development of industrial and postindustrial societies. Where governments, project planners, and commercial developers seek to develop new infrastructure, industrial projects, and various other land-and resource-intensive tasks, veto power shared by various local stakeholders can complicate or halt progress. Risk communication has been used as an attempt to address stakeholder concerns in these contexts, but has demonstrated shortcomings. These coordination failures between project planners and stakeholders can be described as a specific kind of social dilemma that we describe as the "tragedy of the anticommons." To overcome such dilemmas, we demonstrate how a two-step process can directly address public mistrust of project planners and public perceptions of limited decision-making authority. This approach is examined via two separate empirical field experiments in Portugal and Tunisia, where public resistance and anticommons problems threatened to derail emerging industrial projects. In both applications, an intervention is undertaken to address initial public resistance to such projects, where specific public stakeholders and project sponsors collectively engaged in a hypothesis-testing process to identify and assess human and environmental health risks associated with proposed industrial facilities. These field experiments indicate that a rigorous attempt to address public mistrust and perceptions of power imbalances and change the pay-off structure of the given dilemma may help overcome such anticommons problems in specific cases, and may potentially generate enthusiasm and support for such projects by local publics moving forward. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

  19. Phylogeography of the coastal mosquito Aedes togoi across climatic zones: testing an anthropogenic dispersal hypothesis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sota, Teiji; Belton, Peter; Tseng, Michelle; Yong, Hoi Sen; Mogi, Motoyoshi

    2015-01-01

    The coastal mosquito Aedes togoi occurs more or less continuously from subarctic to subtropic zones along the coasts of the Japanese islands and the East Asian mainland. It occurs also in tropical Southeast Asia and the North American Pacific coast, and the populations there are thought to have been introduced from Japan by ship. To test this hypothesis, the genetic divergence among geographic populations of A. togoi was studied using one mitochondrial and three nuclear gene sequences. We detected 71 mitochondrial haplotypes forming four lineages, with high nucleotide diversity around temperate Japan and declining towards peripheral ranges. The major lineage (L1) comprised 57 haplotypes from temperate and subarctic zones in Japan and Southeast Asia including southern China and Taiwan. Two other lineages were found from subtropical islands (L3) and a subarctic area (L4) of Japan. The Canadian population showed one unique haplotype (L2) diverged from the other lineages. In the combined nuclear gene tree, individuals with mitochondrial L4 haplotypes diverged from those with the other mitochondrial haplotypes L1-L3; although individuals with L1-L3 haplotypes showed shallow divergences in the nuclear gene sequences, individuals from Southeast Asia and Canada each formed a monophyletic group. Overall, the genetic composition of the Southeast Asian populations was closely related to that of temperate Japanese populations, suggesting recent gene flow between these regions. The Canadian population might have originated from anthropogenic introduction from somewhere in Asia, but the possibility that it could have spread across the Beringian land bridge cannot be ruled out.

  20. Phylogeography of the coastal mosquito Aedes togoi across climatic zones: testing an anthropogenic dispersal hypothesis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Teiji Sota

    Full Text Available The coastal mosquito Aedes togoi occurs more or less continuously from subarctic to subtropic zones along the coasts of the Japanese islands and the East Asian mainland. It occurs also in tropical Southeast Asia and the North American Pacific coast, and the populations there are thought to have been introduced from Japan by ship. To test this hypothesis, the genetic divergence among geographic populations of A. togoi was studied using one mitochondrial and three nuclear gene sequences. We detected 71 mitochondrial haplotypes forming four lineages, with high nucleotide diversity around temperate Japan and declining towards peripheral ranges. The major lineage (L1 comprised 57 haplotypes from temperate and subarctic zones in Japan and Southeast Asia including southern China and Taiwan. Two other lineages were found from subtropical islands (L3 and a subarctic area (L4 of Japan. The Canadian population showed one unique haplotype (L2 diverged from the other lineages. In the combined nuclear gene tree, individuals with mitochondrial L4 haplotypes diverged from those with the other mitochondrial haplotypes L1-L3; although individuals with L1-L3 haplotypes showed shallow divergences in the nuclear gene sequences, individuals from Southeast Asia and Canada each formed a monophyletic group. Overall, the genetic composition of the Southeast Asian populations was closely related to that of temperate Japanese populations, suggesting recent gene flow between these regions. The Canadian population might have originated from anthropogenic introduction from somewhere in Asia, but the possibility that it could have spread across the Beringian land bridge cannot be ruled out.

  1. Acoustic communication in territorial butterflyfish: test of the sound production hypothesis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tricas, Timothy C; Kajiura, Stephen M; Kosaki, Randall K

    2006-12-01

    Butterflyfishes are conspicuous members of coral reefs and well known for their visual displays during social interactions. Members of the genus Chaetodon have a unique peripheral arrangement of the anterior swim bladder that connects with the lateral line (the laterophysic connection) and in many species projects towards the inner ear. This morphology has lead to the proposal that the laterophysic connection and swim bladder system may be a specialized structure for the detection of sound. However, the relevant stimuli, receiver mechanisms and functions for these putative hearing structures were unknown because butterflyfishes were previously not recognized to produce sounds during natural behavior. We performed field experiments to test the hypothesis that Chaetodon produces sounds in natural social contexts. Acoustic and motor behaviors of the monogamous multiband butterflyfish, C. multicinctus, were evoked and recorded by placement of bottled fish into feeding territories of conspecific pairs. We demonstrate that territory defense includes the production of agonistic sounds and hydrodynamic stimuli that are associated with tail slap, jump, pelvic fin flick and dorsal-anal fin erection behaviors. In addition, grunt pulse trains were produced by bottled intruders and are tentatively interpreted to function as an alert call among pair mates. Acoustic behaviors include low frequency hydrodynamic pulses sounds with peak energy from 100 Hz to 500 Hz, and a broadband high frequency click (peak frequency=3.6 kHz), which is produced only during the tail slap behavior. These results provide a biological framework for future studies to interpret the proximate function of the acoustico-lateralis sensory system, the evolution of the laterophysic mechanism and their relevance to butterflyfish social behavior.

  2. Origin of Peculiar Horizons from the Nuvvuagittuq Greenstone Belt: Testing the Conglomerate Hypothesis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kitayama, C.; Thomassot, E.; Wing, B. A.

    2009-05-01

    Earth's earliest rock record is fragmentary, and often distorted by metamorphic changes suffered under great temperatures and pressures. Recent work may, however, have opened the door to more direct examination of the earliest Earth. Measurements of Nd-142 from rocks of the Nuvvuagittuq Greenstone Belt (NGB), N. Quebec yield an apparent 4.28 Ga isochron (O'Neil et al., 2008). These are potentially the oldest rocks on Earth and understanding the protoliths of the rocks of the NGB may help constrain Earth's earliest surface environment. Peculiar horizons of quartz-rich rocks within the NGB have been hypothesized to represent metamorphosed conglomerates. In order to evaluate this hypothesis, we apply a series of consistency tests aimed at observations ranging from the field to microscale. First, we made high-resolution (10m grid) maps of the purported conglomerate horizons, and interpreted the map pattern of these horizons for their conformity with sedimentary contacts. The horizons are continuous throughout the mapped area, and do not cross cut any other lithologies, which is necessary, but not sufficient, evidence for a sedimentary origin. Second, we examined the mineralogy and three-dimensional geometry of the potential clasts in large polished blocks. The potential clasts fall into just two different types: the dominant type is made up primarily of coarse grains of quartz; the second type is distinctly subordinate and is largely made up of fine-grained equigranular quartz and relict plagioclase with minor amounts of biotite. The dominant type can occur as lozenge-shaped pods up to 5 cm thick, while the subordinate type more commonly occurs as thin (<2 cm thick) undulose layers. Neither the mineralogies nor the geometries of the potential clasts offer certain indication of a sedimentary origin, though they are potentially consistent with one. Third, we are comparing the identity and chemistry of trace minerals within the potential clasts to that of the surrounding

  3. Modeling Reader- and Text- Interactions During Narrative Comprehension: A Test of the Lexical Quality Hypothesis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamilton, Stephen T; Freed, Erin M; Long, Debra L

    2013-01-01

    The goal of this study was to examine predictions derived from the Lexical Quality Hypothesis (Perfetti & Hart, 2002; Perfetti, 2007) regarding relations among word-decoding, working-memory capacity, and the ability to integrate new concepts into a developing discourse representation. Hierarchical Linear Modeling was used to quantify the effects of two text properties (length and number of new concepts) on reading times of focal and spillover sentences, with variance in those effects estimated as a function of individual difference factors (decoding, vocabulary, print exposure, and working-memory capacity). The analysis revealed complex, cross-level interactions that complement the Lexical Quality Hypothesis.

  4. What would judgment and decision making research be like if we took a Bayesian approach to hypothesis testing?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    William J. Matthews

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Judgment and decision making research overwhelmingly uses null hypothesis significance testing as the basis for statistical inference. This article examines an alternative, Bayesian approach which emphasizes the choice between two competing hypotheses and quantifies the balance of evidence provided by the data---one consequence of which is that experimental results may be taken to strongly favour the null hypothesis. We apply a recently-developed ``Bayesian $t$-test'' to existing studies of the anchoring effect in judgment, and examine how the change in approach affects both the tone of hypothesis testing and the substantive conclusions that one draws. We compare the Bayesian approach with Fisherian and Neyman-Pearson testing, examining its relationship to conventional $p$-values, the influence of effect size, and the importance of prior beliefs about the likely state of nature. The results give a sense of how Bayesian hypothesis testing might be applied to judgment and decision making research, and of both the advantages and challenges that a shift to this approach would entail.

  5. Optimizing tuberculosis testing for basic laboratories.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramos, Eric; Schumacher, Samuel G; Siedner, Mark; Herrera, Beatriz; Quino, Willi; Alvarado, Jessica; Montoya, Rosario; Grandjean, Louis; Martin, Laura; Sherman, Jonathan M; Gilman, Robert H; Evans, Carlton A

    2010-10-01

    Optimal tuberculosis testing usually involves sputum centrifugation followed by broth culture. However, centrifuges are biohazardous and scarce in the resource-limited settings where most tuberculosis occurs. To optimize tuberculosis testing for these settings, centrifugation of 111 decontaminated sputum samples was compared with syringe-aspiration through polycarbonate membrane-filters that were then cultured in broth. To reduce the workload of repeated microscopic screening of broth cultures for tuberculosis growth, the colorimetric redox indicator 2,3-diphenyl-5-(2-thienyl) tetrazolium chloride was added to the broth, which enabled naked-eye detection of culture positivity. This combination of filtration and colorimetric growth-detection gave similar results to sputum centrifugation followed by culture microscopy regarding mean colony counts (43 versus 48; P = 0.6), contamination rates (0.9% versus 1.8%; P = 0.3), and sensitivity (94% versus 95%; P = 0.7), suggesting equivalency of the two methods. By obviating centrifugation and repeated microscopic screening of cultures, this approach may constitute a more appropriate technology for rapid and sensitive tuberculosis diagnosis in basic laboratories.

  6. A neutral model as a null hypothesis test for river network sinuosity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaucherel, C.; Salomon, L.

    2014-06-01

    Neutral models (NMs) are built to test null hypotheses and to detect properties at work in an object or a system. While several studies in geomorphology have used NMs without explicitly mentioning them or describing how they were built, it must be recognized that neutral models more often concerned theoretical explorations that drove such use. In this paper, we propose a panel of NMs of river (channel) networks based on a well-established relationship between observed and simulated sinuosity properties. We first simulated new instances of river networks with a (one-parameter) neutral model based on optimal channel networks (OCN) and leading to homogeneous sinuosity watersheds. We then proposed a "less neutral" model able to generate a variety of river networks accounting for the spatial heterogeneity of observed properties such as elevation. These models, providing confidence levels, allowed us to certify that some properties played a role in the generation of the observed network. Finally, we demonstrated and illustrated both models on the Bidasoa watershed (Spain-France frontier), with a new dedicated software (called SSM). NMs in geomorphology ensure to progressively help to identify the process operating in an observed object, and to ultimately improve our understanding of it (i.e. intrinsic need). But they also provide simulated samples statistically "similar" to an observed one, thus offering new alternatives to every process carried by the observed object (i.e. extrinsic need). Artificial river networks studied here would be of great value to environmental sciences studying geomorphology and freshwater-related processes.

  7. Entrainment of sediment particles by retrograde vortices: Test of hypothesis using near-particle observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Fu-Chun; Shih, Wu-Rong

    2012-09-01

    We conduct an experimental study to test the hypothesis that particle entrainment is associated with a passing retrograde vortex (spanwise vortex rotating counter to the mean shear). The pre- and post-entrainment quadrant structures are probed with the laser Doppler velocimetry (LDV) at a near-particle measurement spot, using the shifted-time cumulative quadrant fraction approach. The results are characterized by a pre-entrainment spiky rise of the Q1 fraction (outward interactions) and a mild increase of the Q4 fraction (sweeps), followed by the post-entrainment dominance of the Q4 fraction and a drastic drop of the Q1 fraction. Such results suggest that it is highly probable that particle entrainment is a result of the interactions with a passing retrograde-vortex-type coherent structure. The time series of 2-D velocities at the near-particle spot consistently exhibit the short-term peaks present at the time of entrainment. The quadrant signature at an alternative spot one grain diameter upstream of the target particle exhibits a sequence in which the pre-entrainment dominant Q1 fraction is replaced by the Q4 fraction, followed by a post-entrainment peak of the Q4 fraction. The results obtained from these two locations confirm the theoretical predictions, showing that different quadrant signatures would be detected at different spots during the passage of a retrograde vortex. We also perform an extra set of experiments, in which the target particle is set in an alternative pocket geometry with diagonal downstream valleys. The similar pre-entrainment quadrant signatures detected in all the experiments performed with different types of pocket geometry and the unique post-entrainment quadrant signature detected in those performed with the alternative pocket geometry imply that an obliquely oriented retrograde vortex may have passed, entraining the particle in diagonal directions. The results point to the potential discrepancy in the observed signatures that arises

  8. The Discrepancy between Fisher and Neyman- Pearson on Hypothesis Testing and the Controversy on the Null Hypothesis Significance Test in Psychology%Fisher与Neyman-Pearson的分歧与心理统计中的假设检验争议

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    吕小康

    2012-01-01

    Understanding the difference between Fisher's and Neyman-Pearson's hypothesis testing models is vital to addressing the current controversy about the null hypothesis significance test in psychological studies. As the most prominent experts of hypothesis testing, Fisher and Neyman-Pearson differed sharply in the conceptualization of statistical model, the property of two types of errors, the nature of significance level, and the proper function of hypothesis testing. Fisher constructed his significance test theory based on the vague concept of hypothetical population, which he postulated as a vital pretence that made scientific inference possible. Fisher never believed that a type Ⅱ error was necessary in the statistical testing, and argued that significance test contained no criterion for accepting a hypothesis and did not lead to any probability about the real world, but to a change in the investigator's attitudes towards the hypothesis under consideration. Hence, tests of significance served as a useful but conceptual tool of inductive inference, but not a practical tool of inductive behavior. However, Neyman-Pearson argued that the type Ⅱ error was the cornerstone of the hypothesis testing theory, without which no purely probabilistic test was possible. The two errors were interpreted from a strict frequency perspective, based on the same vague and unrealistic proposition of repeated sampling of the identical population. Uniformly most powerful tests or unbiased uniformly most powerful tests were recommended as perfect statistical testing procedures, though their applications were rather limited due to the difficulty in calculating the power of a test. Hypothesis testing implied a decision rule that either accepting the null hypothesis or rejecting it when certain events were observed and calculated. Their elegant verification won their theory considerable popularity among statisticians. It was widely considered as a refinement of Fisher's significance

  9. Premarital Cohabitation and Marital Instability: A Test of the Unconventionality Hypothesis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Demaris, Alfred; MacDonald, William

    1993-01-01

    Examined whether greater instability of marriage begun by premarital cohabitation can be accounted for by cohabitors' greater unconventionality in family ideology. Hypothesis was largely unsupported. Family attitudes/beliefs did not account for differences in stability. Controlling for background differences, only serial cohabitation was…

  10. Testing the Nonce Borrowing Hypothesis: Counter-Evidence from English-Origin Verbs in Welsh

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stammers, Jonathan R.; Deuchar, Margaret

    2012-01-01

    According to the nonce borrowing hypothesis (NBH), "[n]once borrowings pattern exactly like their native counterparts in the (unmixed) recipient language" (Poplack & Meechan, 1998a, p. 137). Nonce borrowings (Sankoff, Poplack & Vanniarajan, 1990, p. 74) are "lone other-language items" which differ from established borrowings in terms of frequency…

  11. A Cross-Sectional Test of the Similar-Trajectory Hypothesis among Adults with Mental Retardation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Facon, Bruno

    2008-01-01

    The similar-sequence and the similar-structure hypotheses are the two mainstays of the developmental approach to mental retardation. In the present study, a third way, the similar-trajectory hypothesis, is described and illustrated using the WAIS-R results of adults with and without mental retardation aged from 20 to 54 years. The whole sample (N…

  12. A quantitative test of the size efficiency hypothesis by means of a physiologically structured model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hülsmann, S.; Rinke, K.; Mooij, W.M.

    2005-01-01

    According to the size-efficiency hypothesis (SEH) larger bodied cladocerans are better competitors for food than small bodied species. In environments with fish, however, the higher losses of the large bodied species due to size-selective predation may shift the balance in favor of the small bodied

  13. Modeling Reader and Text Interactions during Narrative Comprehension: A Test of the Lexical Quality Hypothesis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamilton, Stephen T.; Freed, Erin M.; Long, Debra L.

    2013-01-01

    The goal of this study was to examine predictions derived from the Lexical Quality Hypothesis regarding relations among word decoding, working-memory capacity, and the ability to integrate new concepts into a developing discourse representation. Hierarchical Linear Modeling was used to quantify the effects of three text properties (length,…

  14. Testing the Münch hypothesis of long distance phloem transport in plants

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Knoblauch, Michael; Knoblauch, Jan; Mullendore, Daniel L.

    2016-01-01

    Long distance transport in plants occurs in sieve tubes of the phloem. The pressure flow hypothesis introduced by Ernst Münch in 1930 describes a mechanism of osmotically generated pressure differentials that are supposed to drive the movement of sugars and other solutes in the phloem...

  15. Visual working memory and number sense : Testing the double deficit hypothesis in mathematics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Toll, Sylke; Kroesbergen, Evelyn; Van Luit, Johannes E H

    2016-01-01

    Background: Evidence exists that there are two main underlying cognitive factors in mathematical difficulties: working memory and number sense. It is suggested that real math difficulties appear when both working memory and number sense are weak, here referred to as the double deficit (DD) hypothesi

  16. What Constitutes Science and Scientific Evidence: Roles of Null Hypothesis Testing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Mark

    2017-01-01

    We briefly discuss the philosophical basis of science, causality, and scientific evidence, by introducing the hidden but most fundamental principle of science: the similarity principle. The principle's use in scientific discovery is illustrated with Simpson's paradox and other examples. In discussing the value of null hypothesis statistical…

  17. Likelihood-Based Hypothesis Tests for Brain Activation Detection From MRI Data Disturbed by Colored Noise: A Simulation Study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Den Dekker, A.J.; Poot, D.H.J.; Bos, R.; Sijbers, J.

    2009-01-01

    Functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) data that are corrupted by temporally colored noise are generally preprocessed (i.e., prewhitened or precolored) prior to functional activation detection. In this paper, we propose likelihood-based hypothesis tests that account for colored noise directly

  18. The Influence of Maternal Acculturation, Neighborhood Disadvantage, and Parenting on Chinese American Adolescents' Conduct Problems: Testing the Segmented Assimilation Hypothesis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Lisa L.; Lau, Anna S.; Chen, Angela Chia-Chen; Dinh, Khanh T.; Kim, Su Yeong

    2009-01-01

    Associations among neighborhood disadvantage, maternal acculturation, parenting and conduct problems were investigated in a sample of 444 Chinese American adolescents. Adolescents (54% female, 46% male) ranged from 12 to 15 years of age (mean age = 13.0 years). Multilevel modeling was employed to test the hypothesis that the association between…

  19. On the Sampling Interpretation of Confidence Intervals and Hypothesis Tests in the Context of Conditional Maximum Likelihood Estimation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maris, E.

    1998-01-01

    The sampling interpretation of confidence intervals and hypothesis tests is discussed in the context of conditional maximum likelihood estimation. Three different interpretations are discussed, and it is shown that confidence intervals constructed from the asymptotic distribution under the third sampling scheme discussed are valid for the first…

  20. High-School Students' Need for Cognition, Self-Control Capacity, and School Achievement: Testing a Mediation Hypothesis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bertrams, Alex; Dickhauser, Oliver

    2009-01-01

    In the present article, we examine the hypothesis that high-school students' motivation to engage in cognitive endeavors (i.e., their need for cognition; NFC) is positively related to their dispositional self-control capacity. Furthermore, we test the prediction that the relation between NFC and school achievement is mediated by self-control…

  1. Silicon-rich mineral water as a non-invasive test of the 'aluminum hypothesis' in Alzheimer's disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davenward, Samantha; Bentham, Peter; Wright, Jan; Crome, Peter; Job, Deborah; Polwart, Anthony; Exley, Christopher

    2013-01-01

    There has been a plausible link between human exposure to aluminum and Alzheimer's disease for several decades. We contend that the only direct and ethically acceptable experimental test of the 'aluminum hypothesis', which would provide unequivocal data specific to the link, is to test the null hypothesis that a reduction in the body burden of aluminum to its lowest practical limit would have no influence upon the incidence, progression, or severity of Alzheimer's disease. Herein we are testing the hypothesis that silicon-rich mineral waters can be used as non-invasive methods to reduce the body burden of aluminum in individuals with Alzheimer's disease and a control group consisting of their carers and partners. We have shown that drinking up to 1 L of a silicon-rich mineral water each day for 12 weeks facilitated the removal of aluminum via the urine in both patient and control groups without any concomitant affect upon the urinary excretion of the essential metals, iron and copper. We have provided preliminary evidence that over 12 weeks of silicon-rich mineral water therapy the body burden of aluminum fell in individuals with Alzheimer's disease and, concomitantly, cognitive performance showed clinically relevant improvements in at least 3 out of 15 individuals. This is a first step in a much needed rigorous test of the 'aluminum hypothesis of Alzheimer's disease' and a longer term study involving many more individuals is now warranted.

  2. Is Variability in Mate Choice Similar for Intelligence and Personality Traits? Testing a Hypothesis about the Evolutionary Genetics of Personality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stone, Emily A.; Shackelford, Todd K.; Buss, David M.

    2012-01-01

    This study tests the hypothesis presented by Penke, Denissen, and Miller (2007a) that condition-dependent traits, including intelligence, attractiveness, and health, are universally and uniformly preferred as characteristics in a mate relative to traits that are less indicative of condition, including personality traits. We analyzed…

  3. Is Variability in Mate Choice Similar for Intelligence and Personality Traits? Testing a Hypothesis about the Evolutionary Genetics of Personality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stone, Emily A.; Shackelford, Todd K.; Buss, David M.

    2012-01-01

    This study tests the hypothesis presented by Penke, Denissen, and Miller (2007a) that condition-dependent traits, including intelligence, attractiveness, and health, are universally and uniformly preferred as characteristics in a mate relative to traits that are less indicative of condition, including personality traits. We analyzed…

  4. Is conscious stimulus identification dependent on knowledge of the perceptual modality? Testing the “source misidentifcation hypothesis"

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Overgaard, Morten; Lindeløv, Jonas Kristoffer; Svejstrup, Stinna

    2013-01-01

    Scale (PAS). We suggest that knowledge about perceptual modality may be a necessary precondition in order to issue correct reports of which stimulus was presented. Furthermore, we find that PAS ratings correlate with correctness, and that subjects are at chance level when reporting no conscious...... experience of the stimulus. To demonstrate that particular levels of reporting accuracy are obtained, we employ a statistical strategy, which operationally tests the hypothesis of non-equality, such that the usual rejection of the null-hypothesis admits the conclusion of equivalence....

  5. Ethnic group identification and group evaluation among minority and majority groups: testing the multiculturalism hypothesis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verkuyten, Maykel

    2005-01-01

    Following social identity theory, the author hypothesized that members of minority groups are more likely than majority group members to endorse multiculturalism more strongly and assimilationist thinking less strongly. In addition, the multiculturalism hypothesis proposes that the more minority groups endorse the ideology of multiculturalism (or assimilationism), the more (or less) likely they will be to identify with their ethnic in-group and to show positive in-group evaluation. In contrast, the more majority group members endorse multiculturalism (or assimilationism), the less (or more) likely they are to identify with their ethnic group and to show negative out-group evaluation. Results from 4 studies (correlational and experimental) provide support for this hypothesis among Dutch and Turkish participants living in the Netherlands.

  6. Testing the ultra-light axion hypothesis using cosmic microwave background and galaxy clustering data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grin, Daniel

    2015-08-01

    Ultra-light axions emerge from string theory and are attractive dark matter and dark energy candidates. After reviewing the motivation for ultra-light axions, I will discuss the cosmological observables in ultra-light axion cosmological scenarios, and then lay forth the methods and results of a recent search for such axions using CMB anisotropies and the clustering of galaxies, calling on Planck CMB data and the WiggleZ galaxy survey, respectively. I will then explain how isocurvature fluctuations in the CMB lead to an interesting tension between ultra-light axion dark matter and high-scale inflation, leading to interesting connections between the hunt for primordial CMB B-mode polarization and the ultra-light axion hypothesis. I will then survey the range of interesting future observational probes of the ultra-light axion dark matter hypothesis..

  7. TESTING EFFICIENCY AND THE UNBIASEDNESS HYPOTHESIS OF THE EMERGING GREEK FUTURES MARKET

    OpenAIRE

    Dimitris Kenourgios

    2005-01-01

    This paper investigates the joint hypothesis of market efficiency and unbiasedness of futures prices for the FTSE-20 blue chip index futures contract. The FTSE/ATHENS STOCK EXCHANGE (ASE)-20 futures market is the first organized derivatives market established in Greece and its operation rests with the Athens Derivatives Exchange (ADEX) and the Athens Derivatives Exchange Clearing House (ADECH). The growing importance of this new market for both investors and the Greek capital market motivated...

  8. Testing the McBeath hypothesis: relation of sexual orientation and belief in the paranormal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thalbourne, M A

    1997-12-01

    According to McBeath, the incidence of homosexuality among experiments of paranormal phenomena exceeds that which would be expected by chance. Therefore, 50 homosexual men and 50 heterosexual men were administered the forced-choice version of the 18-item Australian Sheep-Goat Scale as a measure of belief in and alleged experience of the paranormal. As no differences were found in scores on belief/experience, there was no evidence for McBeath's hypothesis.

  9. Sex differences in spatial ability: a test of the range size hypothesis in the order Carnivora

    OpenAIRE

    2011-01-01

    Sex differences in spatial cognition have been reported for many species ranging from voles to humans. The range size hypothesis predicts that sex differences in spatial ability will only occur in species in which the mating system selects for differential range size. Consistent with this prediction, we observed sex differences in spatial ability in giant pandas, a promiscuous species in which males inhabit larger ranges than females, but did not observe sex differences in Asian small-clawed ...

  10. Testing the ``tropical storm'' hypothesis of Yucatan Peninsula climate variability during the Maya Terminal Classic Period

    Science.gov (United States)

    Medina-Elizalde, Martín; Polanco-Martínez, Josué Moises; Lases-Hernández, Fernanda; Bradley, Raymond; Burns, Stephen

    2016-09-01

    We examine the "tropical storm" hypothesis that precipitation variability in the Yucatan Peninsula (YP) was linked to the frequency of tropical cyclones during the demise of the Classic Maya civilization, in the Terminal Classic Period (TCP, AD 750-950). Evidence that supports the hypothesis includes: (1) a positive relationship between tropical storm frequency and precipitation amount over the YP today (proof of feasibility), (2) a statistically significant correlation between a stalagmite (Chaac) quantitative precipitation record from the YP and the number of named tropical cyclones affecting this region today (1852-2004) (calibration sensu lato), and, (3) correlations between the stalagmite Chaac precipitation record and an Atlantic basin tropical cyclone count record and two proxy records of shifts in macro-scale climate and ocean states that influence Atlantic tropical cyclongenesis. At face value, regional paleotempestology proxy records suggest that tropical storm activity in the YP was either similar or significantly lower than today during the TCP. The "tropical storm" hypothesis has implications for our understanding of the role the hydrological cycle played in the collapse of Classic Maya polities and the role of tropical storms in possibly ameliorating future drought in the YP and other tropical regions.

  11. A test of the social cohesion hypothesis: interactive female marmots remain at home.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blumstein, Daniel T; Wey, Tina W; Tang, Karisa

    2009-08-22

    Individuals frequently leave home before reaching reproductive age, but the proximate causes of natal dispersal remain relatively unknown. The social cohesion hypothesis predicts that individuals who engage in more (affiliative) interactions are less likely to disperse. Despite the intuitive nature of this hypothesis, support is both limited and equivocal. We used formal social network analyses to quantify precisely both direct and indirect measures of social cohesion in yellow-bellied marmots. Because approximately 50 per cent of female yearlings disperse, we expected that social relationships and network measures of cohesion would predict dispersal. By contrast, because most male yearlings disperse, we expected that social relationships and cohesion would play a less important role. We found that female yearlings that interacted with more individuals, and those that were more socially embedded in their groups, were less likely to disperse. For males, social interactions were relatively unimportant determinants of dispersal. This is the first strong support for the social cohesion hypothesis and suggests that the specific nature of social relationships, not simply the number of affiliative relationships, may influence the propensity to disperse.

  12. Optimizing significance testing of astronomical forcing in cyclostratigraphy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kemp, David B.

    2016-12-01

    The recognition of astronomically forced (Milankovitch) climate cycles in geological archives marked a major advance in Earth science, revealing a heartbeat within the climate system of general importance and key utility. Power spectral analysis is the primary tool used to facilitate identification of astronomical cycles in stratigraphic data, but commonly employed methods for testing the statistical significance of relatively high narrow-band variance of potential astronomical origin in spectra have been criticized for inadequately balancing the respective probabilities of type I (false positive) and type II (false negative) errors. This has led to suggestions that the importance of astronomical forcing in Earth history is overstated. It can be readily demonstrated, however, that the imperfect nature of the stratigraphic record and the quasiperiodicity of astronomical cycles sets an upper limit on the attainable significance of astronomical signals. Optimized significance testing is that which minimizes the combined probability of type I and type II errors. Numerical simulations of stratigraphically preserved astronomical signals suggest that optimum significance levels at which to reject a null hypothesis of no astronomical forcing are between 0.01 and 0.001 (i.e., 99-99.9% confidence level). This is lower than commonly employed in the literature (90-99% confidence levels). Nevertheless, in consonance with the emergent view from other scientific disciplines, fixed-value null hypothesis significance testing of power spectra is implicitly ill suited to demonstrating astronomical forcing, and the use of spectral analysis remains a difficult and subjective endeavor in the absence of additional supporting evidence.

  13. Appraised control, coping, and stress in a community sample: a test of the goodness-of-fit hypothesis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zakowski, S G; Hall, M H; Klein, L C; Baum, A

    2001-01-01

    Lazarus and Folkman proposed one of the most comprehensive theories of stress and coping in the psychology literature, but many of their postulates have received little empirical attention, and some of the existing research hasyielded contradictory findings. This longitudinal study sought to clarify the associations among control appraisal, coping, and stress within this theoreticalframework. The theory postulates that coping strategies used tend to match the level of appraised controllability of the stressor (matching hypothesis). It further states that the effects of problem-focused versus emotion-focused coping are moderated by the appraised controllability of the stressor (goodness-of-fit hypothesis). An alternative to the latter is the main-effects hypothesis, which states that problem-focused coping is generally more effective in reducing distress regardless of appraisal. These hypotheses were tested on 72 adults who completed questionnaires on coping and control appraisal. Stress was assessed using self-report (Symptom Checklist-90-Revised) and a behavioral measure (proofreading task) at two times approximately 2 months apart. Appraised control significantly predicted type of coping such that greater control was associated with more problem-focused and less emotion-focused coping. Although the main-effects hypothesis was not supported, the goodness-of-fit hypothesis was partly confirmed by a significant control by emotion-focused coping interaction predicting both self-report and behavioral measures of stress.

  14. The Null Hypothesis as the Research Hypothesis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Myers, Barbara E.; Pohlmann, John T.

    A procedure was developed within hypothesis-testing logic that allows researchers to support a hypothesis that has traditionally been the statistical or null hypothesis. Four activities involved in attainment of this goal were discussed: (1) development of statistical logic needed to define the sampling distribution associated with the hypothesis…

  15. Testing the "Mudball Earth" Hypothesis: Are Neoproterozoic Glacial Deposits Capped with Supraglacial Dust?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goodman, J. C.; Alvim Lage, C.

    2014-12-01

    The Snowball Earth hypothesis has inspired several variants which may help to explain some of the great mysteries of the Neoproterozoic glaciations. One of these, the "Mudball Earth", proposes that as the Earth remained completely frozen for millions of years, a layer of dust accumulated on the ice surface. This dust layer would darken the planet, making it easier for the Earth to escape from the highly stable snowball climate state. This hypothesis is testable: after the ice melted at the end of a glacial era, this dust would sink to the bottom of the ocean, possibly forming a distinct clay, mud, or silt layer on the top of the glacial till deposits: this "clay drape" would then be covered by the cap carbonates that mark a return to warm climate. Sublimation and ice flow during the glacial episode should make this layer thicker at the equator and thinner or absent in the poles. Is this clay layer actually present in the rock record? Is it more prevalent at the paleoequator, as predicted? A clay drape has been noticed anecdotally, but no global survey has been done to date. We conducted a thorough literature review of all sites where Neoproterozoic glacial diamictites have been observed, identifying the type of rock that lies between the diamictite and the postglacial cap carbonate, when present, during both Sturtian and Marinoan glacial periods. Only a few publications identify a distinct clay/silt/mud layer that might represent weathered dust. These sites are not grouped by paleolatitude in any obvious way. With access only to published reports, we cannot determine whether such a layer is absent, went unreported, or was misinterpreted by us. With this work we hope to attract the attention of Neoproterozoic field geologists, inviting them to comment on the presence or absence of strata which could confirm or reject the "Mudball" hypothesis.

  16. Test of the Brink-Axel hypothesis for the pygmy dipole resonance

    CERN Document Server

    Martin, D; Tamii, A; Aoi, N; Bassauer, S; Bertulani, C A; Carter, J; Donaldson, L; Fujita, H; Fujita, Y; Hashimoto, T; Hatanaka, K; Ito, T; Krugmann, A; Liu, B; Maeda, Y; Miki, K; Neveling, R; Pietralla, N; Poltoratska, I; Ponomarev, V Yu; Richter, A; Shima, T; Yamamoto, T; Zweidinger, M

    2016-01-01

    The gamma strength function (GSF) and level density (LD) of 1- states in 96Mo have been extracted from a high-resolution study of the (p,p') reaction at 295 MeV and extreme forward angles. The GSF agrees with results of compound nucleus gamma decay experiments in the energy region of the Pygmy Dipole Resonance (PDR), validating the generalized Brink-Axel hypothesis commonly assumed in astrophysical reaction network calculations. The consistency of the LD deduced from the present data with those of the gamma decay experiments provides independent confirmation of the methods used to separate GSF and LD in Oslo-type experiments.

  17. Test of the neurolinguistic programming hypothesis that eye-movements relate to processing imagery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wertheim, E H; Habib, C; Cumming, G

    1986-04-01

    Bandler and Grinder's hypothesis that eye-movements reflect sensory processing was examined. 28 volunteers first memorized and then recalled visual, auditory, and kinesthetic stimuli. Changes in eye-positions during recall were videotaped and categorized by two raters into positions hypothesized by Bandler and Grinder's model to represent visual, auditory, and kinesthetic recall. Planned contrast analyses suggested that visual stimulus items, when recalled, elicited significantly more upward eye-positions and stares than auditory and kinesthetic items. Auditory and kinesthetic items, however, did not elicit more changes in eye-position hypothesized by the model to represent auditory and kinesthetic recall, respectively.

  18. PERSONALIZED HYPOTHESIS TESTS FOR DETECTING MEDICATION RESPONSE IN PARKINSON DISEASE PATIENTS USING iPHONE SENSOR DATA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chaibub Neto, Elias; Bot, Brian M; Perumal, Thanneer; Omberg, Larsson; Guinney, Justin; Kellen, Mike; Klein, Arno; Friend, Stephen H; Trister, Andrew D

    2016-01-01

    We propose hypothesis tests for detecting dopaminergic medication response in Parkinson disease patients, using longitudinal sensor data collected by smartphones. The processed data is composed of multiple features extracted from active tapping tasks performed by the participant on a daily basis, before and after medication, over several months. Each extracted feature corresponds to a time series of measurements annotated according to whether the measurement was taken before or after the patient has taken his/her medication. Even though the data is longitudinal in nature, we show that simple hypothesis tests for detecting medication response, which ignore the serial correlation structure of the data, are still statistically valid, showing type I error rates at the nominal level. We propose two distinct personalized testing approaches. In the first, we combine multiple feature-specific tests into a single union-intersection test. In the second, we construct personalized classifiers of the before/after medication labels using all the extracted features of a given participant, and test the null hypothesis that the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the classifier is equal to 1/2. We compare the statistical power of the personalized classifier tests and personalized union-intersection tests in a simulation study, and illustrate the performance of the proposed tests using data from mPower Parkinsons disease study, recently launched as part of Apples ResearchKit mobile platform. Our results suggest that the personalized tests, which ignore the longitudinal aspect of the data, can perform well in real data analyses, suggesting they might be used as a sound baseline approach, to which more sophisticated methods can be compared to.

  19. Application & Research of Hypothesis Test Method in Weapon Test%假设检验方法在兵器试验中的应用研究

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    尹江丽; 郭效芝

    2013-01-01

    Based on the problems which needing the hypothesis test in weapon test, this paper proposes processing data by use of a hypothesis test. By establishing the null hypothesis and alternative hypothesis to select the appropriate statistics, the sample is measured according to the data to judge the reasonableness of the hypothesis on the basis of the test of the hypothesis. If the hypothesis is proved reasonable, it can be used as the basis for data analysis and data application to establish a corresponding hypothesis test model and apply the hypothesis test to weapon test. The application example shows that this method is reasonable and effective. It applies to standard deviation and rate, as well as quality inspection, and is an effective way to test the indexes of military products.%  针对兵器试验中需要进行假设检验的问题,提出一种利用假设检验进行数据处理的方法。通过建立原假设与备选假设,选取适当的统计量,再根据资料实测样本,对所做的假设进行检验,从而判断此假设是否合理,若假设通过检验,则可以作为数据分析和应用的依据,并建立相应的假设检验模型,将假设检验方法运用到兵器试验中。实例应用结果表明:该方法合理有效,不仅适用于质量的检验,对标准差、比率等指标均可进行检验,是兵工产品指标测定的一种有效方法。

  20. External attentional focus enhances movement automatization: a comprehensive test of the constrained action hypothesis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kal, E C; van der Kamp, J; Houdijk, H

    2013-08-01

    An external focus of attention has been shown to result in superior motor performance compared to an internal focus of attention. This study investigated whether this is due to enhanced levels of movement automatization, as predicted by the constrained action hypothesis (McNevin, Shea, & Wulf, 2003). Thirty healthy participants performed a cyclic one-leg extension-flexion task with both the dominant and non-dominant leg. Focus of attention was manipulated via instructions. The degree of automatization of movement was assessed by measuring dual task costs as well as movement execution parameters (i.e., EMG activity, movement fluency, and movement regularity). Results revealed that an external focus of attention led to significantly better motor performance (i.e., shorter movement duration) than an internal focus. Although dual task costs of the motor task did not differ as a function of attentional focus, cognitive dual task costs were significantly higher when attention was directed internally. An external focus of attention resulted in more fluent and more regular movement execution than an internal focus, whereas no differences were found concerning muscular activity. These results indicate that an external focus of attention results in more automatized movements than an internal focus and, therefore, provide support for the constrained action hypothesis.

  1. Protozoan parasites in group-living primates: testing the biological island hypothesis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chapman, Colin A; Bowman, Dwight D; Ghai, Ria R; Gogarten, Jan F; Goldberg, Tony L; Rothman, Jessica M; Twinomugisha, Dennis; Walsh, Chesley

    2012-06-01

    A series of articles by W.J. Freeland published in the 1970s proposed that social organization and behavioral processes were heavily influenced by parasitic infections, which led to a number of intriguing hypotheses concerning how natural selection might act on social factors because of the benefits of avoiding parasite infections. For example, Freeland [1979] showed that all individuals within a given group harbored identical gastrointestinal protozoan faunas, which led him to postulate that social groups were akin to "biological islands" and suggest how this isolation could select specific types of ranging and dispersal patterns. Here, we reexamine the biological island hypothesis by quantifying the protozoan faunas of the same primate species examined by Freeland in the same location; our results do not support this hypothesis. In contrast, we quantified two general changes in protozoan parasite community of primates in the study area of Kibale National Park, Uganda, over the nearly 35 years between sample collections: (1) the colobines found free of parasites in the early 1970s are now infected with numerous intestinal protozoan parasites and (2) groups are no longer biological islands in terms of their protozoan parasites. Whatever the ultimate explanation for these changes, our findings have implications for studies proposing selective forces shaping primate behavior and social organization. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  2. Air Pollution and Economic Growth in MENA Countries: Testing EKC Hypothesis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Al-Rawashdeh

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC hypothesis is one of the models describing the relationship between economic growth and environmental quality. The purpose of this study is to investigate the relationship between economic growth and the two environmental indicators (SO2 emissions, SO2 emissions in 22 Middle East and North Africa (MENA countries. Based on a country level analysis and by using time series data, the study revealed that there is an evidence for SO2 - EKC for Algeria, Tunisia, Yemen, Morocco, Turkey and Libya. Our findings for CO2 emissions also support an inverted U-shape pattern associated with the EKC hypothesis for Tunisia, Morocco, Turkey and Jordan. The results also showed that MENA region as a whole did not show EKC for SO2 emissions and CO2 emissions. Stricter policy measures and higher demands for the adoption of best environmental practices are required in order to generate an inverted U shaped curve relationship between GDP per capita and environmental degradation. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5755/j01.erem.70.4.7743

  3. Cross-validation and hypothesis testing in neuroimaging: An irenic comment on the exchange between Friston and Lindquist et al.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reiss, Philip T

    2015-08-01

    The "ten ironic rules for statistical reviewers" presented by Friston (2012) prompted a rebuttal by Lindquist et al. (2013), which was followed by a rejoinder by Friston (2013). A key issue left unresolved in this discussion is the use of cross-validation to test the significance of predictive analyses. This note discusses the role that cross-validation-based and related hypothesis tests have come to play in modern data analyses, in neuroimaging and other fields. It is shown that such tests need not be suboptimal and can fill otherwise-unmet inferential needs.

  4. Testing of Frozen Turbulence Hypothesis forWind Turbine Applications with a Staring Lidar

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trujillo, Juan Jose; Trabucchi, Davide; Bischoff, Oliver; Hofsäß, Martin; Mann, Jakob; Mikkelsen, Torben; Rettenmeier, Andreas; Schlipf, David; Kühn, Martin

    2010-05-01

    A pulsed lidar installed on the nacelle of a 5 MW wind turbine (116 m rotor diameter) is used to study Taylor's hypothesis of frozen turbulence over an open field. The measurements are performed staring upstream parallel to the turbine axis and at a height of approximately 102 m. At this height, the conditions which support Taylor's theory may fail due to the vertical wind shear and inhomogeneity. The scanning system provides upstream spatially filtered and temporally averaged wind data. These data should support the wind turbine control system in forecasting the arrival of gusts to the rotor in real-time. Measurements taken simultaneously in a range between 0.4 and 1.2 rotor diameters upstream are used to search the wave-number region where the turbulent coherent structures move with the mean wind speed. By means of the coherence function it is possible to measure the correlation between turbulence measured at different points in wind direction; for the same data series, through the phase it is possible to evaluate the hypothetical time delay at each wave-number. According to Taylor's hypothesis the coherence should be one for all wave-numbers while the phase should be a straight line and its slope should be proportional to the speed of the turbulent structures. Actually they evolve following the Kolmogorov cascade theory and the smallest structures vanish by conversion into thermal energy. Moreover the shear stress may stretch the turbulent structure. These factors cause a decay in the two points coherence and influence the frozen turbulence theory. Measurement data are divided in bins according to their ten-minute statistics (average wind speed and turbulence intensity) and their spectra are evaluated with the Welch algorithm for bins with at least eighty minutes data. This choice reduces errors and gives a good frequency/wave-number resolution. The results show that the coherence of turbulence at 0.2 rotor diameter separation remains in average over 0.9 and 0

  5. "Out of my league": a real-world test of the matching hypothesis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor, Lindsay Shaw; Fiore, Andrew T; Mendelsohn, G A; Cheshire, Coye

    2011-07-01

    The matching hypothesis predicts that individuals on the dating market will assess their own self-worth and select partners whose social desirability approximately equals their own. It is often treated as well established, despite a dearth of empirical evidence to support it. In the current research, the authors sought to address conceptual and methodological inconsistencies in the extant literature and to examine whether matching occurs as defined by Walster et al. and more generally. Using data collected in the laboratory and from users of a popular online dating site, the authors found evidence for matching based on self-worth, physical attractiveness, and popularity, but to different degrees and not always at the same stage of the dating process.

  6. The Influence of Maternal Acculturation, Neighborhood Disadvantage, and Parenting on Chinese American Adolescents’ Conduct Problems: Testing the Segmented Assimilation Hypothesis

    OpenAIRE

    2008-01-01

    Associations among neighborhood disadvantage, maternal acculturation, parenting and conduct problems were investigated in a sample of 444 Chinese American adolescents. Adolescents (54% female, 46% male) ranged from 12 to 15 years of age (mean age = 13.0 years). Multilevel modeling was employed to test the hypothesis that the association between maternal acculturation and adolescents’ conduct problems could be explained by differences in mothers’ reliance on monitoring and harsh discipline. In...

  7. Test of The Weak Form Efficient Market Hypothesis for The Istanbul Stock Exchange By Markov Chains Methodology

    OpenAIRE

    KILIÇ, Öğr.Gör.Dr. Süleyman Bilgin

    2013-01-01

    In this study Markov chain methodology is used to test whether or not the daily returns of the Istanbul Stock Exchange ISE 100 index follows a martingale random walk process If the Weak Form Efficient Market Hypothesis EMH holds in any stock market stocks prices or returns follow a random walk process The random walk theory asserts that price movements will not follow any patterns or trends and that past price movements cannot be used to predict future price movements hence technic...

  8. Sexual deception in a cannibalistic mating system? Testing the Femme Fatale hypothesis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barry, Katherine L.

    2015-01-01

    Animal communication theory holds that in order to be evolutionarily stable, signals must be honest on average, but significant dishonesty (i.e. deception) by a subset of the population may also evolve. A typical praying mantid mating system involves active mate searching by males, which is guided by airborne sex pheromones in most species for which mate-searching cues have been studied. The Femme Fatale hypothesis suggests that female mantids may be selected to exploit conspecific males as prey if they benefit nutritionally from cannibalism. Such a benefit exists in the false garden mantid Pseudomantis albofimbriata—females use the resources gained from male consumption to significantly increase their body condition and reproductive output. This study aimed to examine the potential for chemical deception among the subset of females most likely to benefit from cannibalism (poorly fed females). Females were placed into one of four feeding treatments (‘Very Poor’, ‘Poor’, ‘Medium’ and ‘Good’), and males were given the opportunity to choose between visually obscured females in each of the treatments. Female body condition and fecundity varied linearly with food quantity; however, female attractiveness did not. That is, Very Poor females attracted significantly more males than any of the other female treatments, even though these females were in significantly poorer condition, less fecund (in this study) and more likely to cannibalise (in a previous study). In addition, there was a positive correlation between fecundity and attractiveness if Very Poor females were removed from the analysis, suggesting an inherently honest signalling system with a subset of dishonest individuals. This is the first empirical study to provide evidence of sexual deception via chemical cues, and the first to provide support for the Femme Fatale hypothesis. PMID:25520352

  9. Personality and Behavior in Social Dilemmas: Testing the Situational Strength Hypothesis and the Role of Hypothetical Versus Real Incentives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lozano, José H

    2016-02-01

    Previous research aimed at testing the situational strength hypothesis suffers from serious limitations regarding the conceptualization of strength. In order to overcome these limitations, the present study attempts to test the situational strength hypothesis based on the operationalization of strength as reinforcement contingencies. One dispositional factor of proven effect on cooperative behavior, social value orientation (SVO), was used as a predictor of behavior in four social dilemmas with varying degree of situational strength. The moderating role of incentive condition (hypothetical vs. real) on the relationship between SVO and behavior was also tested. One hundred undergraduates were presented with the four social dilemmas and the Social Value Orientation Scale. One-half of the sample played the social dilemmas using real incentives, whereas the other half used hypothetical incentives. Results supported the situational strength hypothesis in that no behavioral variability and no effect of SVO on behavior were found in the strongest situation. However, situational strength did not moderate the effect of SVO on behavior in situations where behavior showed variability. No moderating effect was found for incentive condition either. The implications of these results for personality theory and assessment are discussed.

  10. A Test Procedure for Ordered Hypothesis of Population Proportions Against a Control

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Waheed Babatunde YAHYA

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Objective: This paper aims to present a novel procedure for testing a set of population proportions against an ordered alternative with a control. Material and Methods: The distribution of the test statistic for the proposed test was determined theoretically and through Monte-Carlo experiments. The efficiency of the proposed test method was compared with the classical Chi-square test of homogeneity of population proportions using their empirical Type I error rates and powers at various sample sizes. Results: The new test statistic that was developed for testing a set of population proportions against an ordered alternative with a control was found to have a Chi-square distribution with non-integer values degrees of freedom v that depend on the number of population groups k being compared. Table of values of v for comparing up to 26 population groups was constructed while an expression was developed to determine v for cases where k > 26. Further results showed that the new test method is capable of detecting the superiority of a treatment, for instance a new drug type, over some of the existing ones in situations where only the qualitative data on users’ preferences of all the available treatments (drug types are available. The new test method was found to be relatively more powerful and consistent at estimating the nominal Type I error rates (α, especially at smaller sample sizes than the classical Chi-square test of homogeneity of population proportions. Conclusion: Conclusion: Conclusion: Conclusion: The new test method proposed here could find applications in pharmacology where a newly developed drug might be expected to be more preferred by users than some of the existing ones. This kind of test problem can equally exist in medicine, engineering and humanities in situations where only the qualitative data on users’ preferences of a set of treatments or systems are available.

  11. The Supermatrix Technique: A Simple Framework for Hypothesis Testing with Missing Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lang, Kyle M.; Little, Todd D.

    2014-01-01

    We present a new paradigm that allows simplified testing of multiparameter hypotheses in the presence of incomplete data. The proposed technique is a straight-forward procedure that combines the benefits of two powerful data analytic tools: multiple imputation and nested-model ?2 difference testing. A Monte Carlo simulation study was conducted to…

  12. COLOR IMAGE RETRIEVAL BASED ON NON-PARAMETRIC STATISTICAL TESTS OF HYPOTHESIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Shekhar

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available A novel method for color image retrieval, based on statistical non-parametric tests such as twosample Wald Test for equality of variance and Man-Whitney U test, is proposed in this paper. The proposed method tests the deviation, i.e. distance in terms of variance between the query and target images; if the images pass the test, then it is proceeded to test the spectrum of energy, i.e. distance between the mean values of the two images; otherwise, the test is dropped. If the query and target images pass the tests then it is inferred that the two images belong to the same class, i.e. both the images are same; otherwise, it is assumed that the images belong to different classes, i.e. both images are different. The proposed method is robust for scaling and rotation, since it adjusts itself and treats either the query image or the target image is the sample of other.

  13. Cross-Border Mergers and Acquisitions in China: A Test of the Free Cash Flow Hypothesis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yane Chandera

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available This research investigates whether Chinese cross-border investments have positive impact onshareholders wealth and whether the amount of bidders’ free cash flow influences the shareholderreturns resulted from the acquisitions. The sample is based on 77 top Chinese cross-border investmentsduring the years 2005-2009 with each deal value of minimum US$100 million. The assessmentsof acquisition abnormal returns are based on the event study methodology (Brown & Warner, 1985.Cross-sectional regression analysis is used to determine the bidding firms factors which significantlyaffect the returns. Factors are examined using OLS with White’s heteroscedasticity-corrected standarderrors, since the assumption of homoscedasticity is likely to be violated. The study proves Chinesecross- border acquisitions result in positive abnormal returns which is consistent with synergyhypothesis. The amount of bidders’ free cash flow is also found to be marginally but positively associatedwith shareholders return which is consistent with Myers and Majluf’s pecking order hypothesisbut unsupportive of Jensen’s free cash flow hypothesis.

  14. Why Do Fast-Growing Bacteria Enter Overflow Metabolism? Testing the Membrane Real Estate Hypothesis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Szenk, Mariola; Dill, Ken A; de Graff, Adam M R

    2017-08-23

    Bacteria and other cells show a puzzling behavior. At high growth rates, E. coli switch from respiration (which is ATP-efficient) to using fermentation for additional ATP (which is inefficient). This overflow metabolism results in a several-fold decrease in ATP produced per glucose molecule provided as food. By integrating diverse types of experimental data into a simple biophysical model, we give evidence that this onset is the result of the membrane real estate hypothesis: Fast growth drives cells to be bigger, reducing their surface-to-volume ratios. This decreases the membrane area available for respiratory proteins despite growing demand, causing increased crowding. Only when respiratory proteins reach their crowding limit does the cell activate fermentation, since fermentation allows faster ATP production per unit membrane area. Surface limitation thus creates a Pareto trade-off between membrane efficiency and ATP yield that links metabolic choice to the size and shape of a bacterial cell. By exploring the predictions that emerge from this trade-off, we show how consideration of molecular structures, energetics, rates, and equilibria can provide important insight into cellular behavior. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. Testing the hypothesis of the Earth's magnetosphere behaving like an avalanching system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. T. Y. Lui

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available The global auroral dissipation power as observed by the imager on the Polar spacecraft is used as a proxy for the power dissipation of the Earth's magnetosphere to examine whether or not the magnetosphere is an avalanching system. It is found that the probability density distributions for the area and power of auroral activity sites have a power law component within a finite scale range, suggestive of a scale-free nature in this finite-size system. This property is robust, prevailing with variations in the threshold used to define auroral activity sites and in the strength of the external driver, namely, the solar wind. The statistical characteristics on the temporal evolution of auroral sites are then examined, which leads to a criterion that can be used to predict about 42min in advance the total energy dissipation during the lifetime of an auroral activity site. The scale-free characteristics of auroral activity appears to be an intrinsic feature of the magnetosphere based on a comparison of the probability density distribution in the total auroral brightness power with that of the solar wind power input parameters in the same period as the auroral observations. These results are consistent with the hypothesis of the magnetosphere behaving like an avalanching system.

  16. Testing the absolute-tempo hypothesis: context effects for familiar and unfamiliar songs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rashotte, Matthew A; Wedell, Douglas H

    2014-11-01

    In two experiments, we investigated context effects on tempo judgments for familiar and unfamiliar songs performed by popular artists. In Experiment 1, participants made comparative tempo judgments to a remembered standard for song clips drawn from either a slow or a fast context, created by manipulating the tempos of the same songs. Although both familiar and unfamiliar songs showed significant shifts in their points of subjective equality toward the tempo context values, more-familiar songs showed significantly reduced contextual bias. In Experiment 2, tempo pleasantness ratings showed significant context effects in which the ordering of tempos on the pleasantness scale differed across contexts, with the most pleasant tempo shifting toward the contextual values, an assimilation of ideal points. Once again, these effects were significant but reduced for the more-familiar songs. The moderating effects of song familiarity support a weak version of the absolute-tempo hypothesis, in which long-term memory for tempo reduces but does not eliminate contextual effects. Thus, although both relative and absolute tempo information appear to be encoded in memory, the absolute representation may be subject to rapid revision by recently experienced tempo-altered versions of the same song.

  17. Men's preference for women's facial features: testing homogamy and the paternity uncertainty hypothesis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bovet, Jeanne; Barthes, Julien; Durand, Valérie; Raymond, Michel; Alvergne, Alexandra

    2012-01-01

    Male mate choice might be based on both absolute and relative strategies. Cues of female attractiveness are thus likely to reflect both fitness and reproductive potential, as well as compatibility with particular male phenotypes. In humans, absolute clues of fertility and indices of favorable developmental stability are generally associated with increased women's attractiveness. However, why men exhibit variable preferences remains less studied. Male mate choice might be influenced by uncertainty of paternity, a selective factor in species where the survival of the offspring depends on postnatal paternal care. For instance, in humans, a man might prefer a woman with recessive traits, thereby increasing the probability that his paternal traits will be visible in the child and ensuring paternity. Alternatively, attractiveness is hypothesized to be driven by self-resembling features (homogamy), which would reduce outbreeding depression. These hypotheses have been simultaneously evaluated for various facial traits using both real and artificial facial stimuli. The predicted preferences were then compared to realized mate choices using facial pictures from couples with at least 1 child. No evidence was found to support the paternity uncertainty hypothesis, as recessive features were not preferred by male raters. Conversely, preferences for self-resembling mates were found for several facial traits (hair and eye color, chin dimple, and thickness of lips and eyebrows). Moreover, realized homogamy for facial traits was also found in a sample of long-term mates. The advantages of homogamy in evolutionary terms are discussed.

  18. Eating Disorders and Intrasexual Competition: Testing an Evolutionary Hypothesis among Young Women

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abed, Riadh; Mehta, Sunil; Figueredo, Aurelio José; Aldridge, Sarah; Balson, Hannah; Meyer, Caroline; Palmer, Robert

    2012-01-01

    The sexual competition hypothesis (SCH) contends that intense female intrasexual competition (ISC) is the ultimate cause of eating disorders. The SCH explains the phenomenon of the pursuit of thinness as an adaptation to ISC in the modern environment. It argues that eating disorders are pathological phenomena that arise from the mismatch between the modern environment and the inherited female adaptations for ISC. The present study has two aims. The first is to examine the relationship between disordered eating behavior (DEB) and ISC in a sample of female undergraduates. The second is to establish whether there is any relationship between disordered eating behavior and life history (LH) strategy. Participants completed a battery of questionnaires examining eating-related attitudes and behaviors, ISC, and LH strategy. A group of 206 female undergraduates were recruited. A structural equation model was constructed to analyze the data. ISC for mates was significantly associated with DEB, as predicted by the SCH. DEB was found to be predicted by fast LH strategy, which was only partially mediated by the SCH. The results of this study are supportive of the SCH and justify research on a clinical sample. PMID:22566764

  19. Men's preference for women's facial features: testing homogamy and the paternity uncertainty hypothesis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeanne Bovet

    Full Text Available Male mate choice might be based on both absolute and relative strategies. Cues of female attractiveness are thus likely to reflect both fitness and reproductive potential, as well as compatibility with particular male phenotypes. In humans, absolute clues of fertility and indices of favorable developmental stability are generally associated with increased women's attractiveness. However, why men exhibit variable preferences remains less studied. Male mate choice might be influenced by uncertainty of paternity, a selective factor in species where the survival of the offspring depends on postnatal paternal care. For instance, in humans, a man might prefer a woman with recessive traits, thereby increasing the probability that his paternal traits will be visible in the child and ensuring paternity. Alternatively, attractiveness is hypothesized to be driven by self-resembling features (homogamy, which would reduce outbreeding depression. These hypotheses have been simultaneously evaluated for various facial traits using both real and artificial facial stimuli. The predicted preferences were then compared to realized mate choices using facial pictures from couples with at least 1 child. No evidence was found to support the paternity uncertainty hypothesis, as recessive features were not preferred by male raters. Conversely, preferences for self-resembling mates were found for several facial traits (hair and eye color, chin dimple, and thickness of lips and eyebrows. Moreover, realized homogamy for facial traits was also found in a sample of long-term mates. The advantages of homogamy in evolutionary terms are discussed.

  20. A new method to test the hypothesis of isotropy of the ultrahigh energy cosmic ray flux

    CERN Document Server

    Decerprit, Guillaume; Lachaud, Cyril

    2016-01-01

    We developed a new method in order to detect and quantify a potential anisotropy in the ultrahigh energy cosmic ray flux. The proposed method is a new statistical tool based upon the percolation process that is used in physics to describe the formation of long-range connectivity in random systems. Specifically, we investigate the dynamic of the arrangement of cosmic rays into clusters as a function of the maximum angular separation between the arrival directions of a pair of events. In a first step, we characterize the percolation process and extract the most sensitive observable through Monte-Carlo simulations. We then apply the algorithm to the data taken by the array of surface detectors of the Pierre Auger Observatory up to January 2010. The strongest signal appears at an energy threshold of 56.74 EeV and an angular scale of 4 for which the hypothesis of isotropy of the arrival directions of the highest-energy cosmic rays is rejected at a nearly 90% C.L.

  1. Plant species coexistence at local scale in temperate swamp forest: test of habitat heterogeneity hypothesis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Douda, Jan; Doudová-Kochánková, Jana; Boublík, Karel; Drašnarová, Alena

    2012-06-01

    It has been suggested that a heterogeneous environment enhances species richness and allows for the coexistence of species. However, there is increasing evidence that environmental heterogeneity can have no effect or even a negative effect on plant species richness and plant coexistence at a local scale. We examined whether plant species richness increases with local heterogeneity in the water table depth, microtopography, pH and light availability in a swamp forest community at three local spatial scales (grain: 0.6, 1.2 and 11.4 m). We also used the variance partitioning approach to assess the relative contributions of niche-based and other spatial processes to species occurrence. We found that heterogeneity in microtopography and light availability positively correlated with species richness, in accordance with the habitat heterogeneity hypothesis. However, we recorded different heterogeneity-diversity relationships for particular functional species groups. An increase in the richness of bryophytes and woody plant species was generally related to habitat heterogeneity at all measured spatial scales, whereas a low impact on herbaceous species richness was recorded only at the 11.4 m scale. The distribution of herbaceous plants was primarily explained by other spatial processes, such as dispersal, in contrast to the occurrence of bryophytes, which was better explained by environmental factors. Our results suggest that both niche-based and other spatial processes are important determinants of the plant composition and species turnover at local spatial scales in swamp forests.

  2. Testing the Environmental Kuznets Curve Hypothesis for Biodiversity Risk in the US: A Spatial Econometric Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert P. Berrens

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available This study investigates whether the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC relationship is supported for a measure of biodiversity risk and economic development across the United States (US. Using state-level data for all 48 contiguous states, biodiversity risk is measured using a Modified Index (MODEX. This index is an adaptation of a comprehensive National Biodiversity Risk Assessment Index. The MODEX differs from other measures in that it is takes into account the impact of human activities and conservation measures. The econometric approach includes corrections for spatial autocorrelation effects, which are present in the data. Modeling estimation results do not support the EKC hypothesis for biodiversity risk in the US. This finding is robust over ordinary least squares, spatial error, and spatial lag models, where the latter is shown to be the preferred model. Results from the spatial lag regression show that a 1% increase in human population density is associated with about a 0.19% increase in biodiversity risk. Spatial dependence in this case study explains 30% of the variation, as risk in one state spills over into adjoining states. From a policy perspective, this latter result supports the need for coordinated efforts at state and federal levels to address the problem of biodiversity loss.

  3. Testing the growth rate hypothesis in vascular plants with above- and below-ground biomass.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Qiang; Wu, Honghui; He, Nianpeng; Lü, Xiaotao; Wang, Zhiping; Elser, James J; Wu, Jianguo; Han, Xingguo

    2012-01-01

    The growth rate hypothesis (GRH) proposes that higher growth rate (the rate of change in biomass per unit biomass, μ) is associated with higher P concentration and lower C:P and N:P ratios. However, the applicability of the GRH to vascular plants is not well-studied and few studies have been done on belowground biomass. Here we showed that, for aboveground, belowground and total biomass of three study species, μ was positively correlated with N:C under N limitation and positively correlated with P:C under P limitation. However, the N:P ratio was a unimodal function of μ, increasing for small values of μ, reaching a maximum, and then decreasing. The range of variations in μ was positively correlated with variation in C:N:P stoichiometry. Furthermore, μ and C:N:P ranges for aboveground biomass were negatively correlated with those for belowground. Our results confirm the well-known association of growth rate with tissue concentration of the limiting nutrient and provide empirical support for recent theoretical formulations.

  4. Testing the growth rate hypothesis in vascular plants with above- and below-ground biomass.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qiang Yu

    Full Text Available The growth rate hypothesis (GRH proposes that higher growth rate (the rate of change in biomass per unit biomass, μ is associated with higher P concentration and lower C:P and N:P ratios. However, the applicability of the GRH to vascular plants is not well-studied and few studies have been done on belowground biomass. Here we showed that, for aboveground, belowground and total biomass of three study species, μ was positively correlated with N:C under N limitation and positively correlated with P:C under P limitation. However, the N:P ratio was a unimodal function of μ, increasing for small values of μ, reaching a maximum, and then decreasing. The range of variations in μ was positively correlated with variation in C:N:P stoichiometry. Furthermore, μ and C:N:P ranges for aboveground biomass were negatively correlated with those for belowground. Our results confirm the well-known association of growth rate with tissue concentration of the limiting nutrient and provide empirical support for recent theoretical formulations.

  5. Testing the self-medication hypothesis of depression and aggression in cannabis-dependent subjects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arendt, Mikkel; Rosenberg, Raben; Fjordback, Lone; Brandholdt, Jack; Foldager, Leslie; Sher, Leo; Munk-Jørgensen, Povl

    2007-07-01

    A self-medication hypothesis has been proposed to explain the association between cannabis use and psychiatric and behavioral problems. However, little is known about the reasons for use and reactions while intoxicated in cannabis users who suffer from depression or problems controlling violent behavior. We assessed 119 cannabis-dependent subjects using the Schedules of Clinical Assessment in Neuropsychiatry (SCAN), parts of the Addiction Severity Index (ASI), and questionnaires on reasons for cannabis use and reactions to cannabis use while intoxicated. Participants with lifetime depression and problems controlling violent behavior were compared to subjects without such problems. Validity of the groupings was corroborated by use of a psychiatric treatment register, previous use of psychotropic medication and convictions for violence. Subjects with lifetime depression used cannabis for the same reasons as others. While under the influence of cannabis, they more often experienced depression, sadness, anxiety and paranoia, and they were less likely to report happiness or euphoria. Participants reporting problems controlling violent behavior more often used cannabis to decrease aggression, decrease suspiciousness, and for relaxation; while intoxicated they more often reacted with aggression. Subjects with prior depression do not use cannabis as a mean of self-medication. They are more likely to experience specific increases of adverse symptoms while under the influence of cannabis, and are less likely to experience specific symptom relief. There is some evidence that cannabis is used as a means of self-medication for problems controlling aggression.

  6. Eating Disorders and Intrasexual Competition: Testing an Evolutionary Hypothesis among Young Women

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Riadh Abed

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The sexual competition hypothesis (SCH contends that intense female intrasexual competition (ISC is the ultimate cause of eating disorders. The SCH explains the phenomenon of the pursuit of thinness as an adaptation to ISC in the modern environment. It argues that eating disorders are pathological phenomena that arise from the mismatch between the modern environment and the inherited female adaptations for ISC. The present study has two aims. The first is to examine the relationship between disordered eating behavior (DEB and ISC in a sample of female undergraduates. The second is to establish whether there is any relationship between disordered eating behavior and life history (LH strategy. Participants completed a battery of questionnaires examining eating-related attitudes and behaviors, ISC, and LH strategy. A group of 206 female undergraduates were recruited. A structural equation model was constructed to analyze the data. ISC for mates was significantly associated with DEB, as predicted by the SCH. DEB was found to be predicted by fast LH strategy, which was only partially mediated by the SCH. The results of this study are supportive of the SCH and justify research on a clinical sample.

  7. Testing The Random Walk Hypothesis: An Application in the BRIC Countries and Turkey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Halime Temel Nalın

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates the weak form efficiency in the BRIC countries and Turkey with use of autocorrelation analysis, unit root tests, Johansen cointegration and Granger causality test. Monthly data covers the period from July 1997 to December 2013. Our findings indicate the efficiency among the stock markets in the weak form. The empirical findings indicate monthly closing prices of indices follow the random walk procedure. According to Granger causality and Johansen cointegration tests we found the long-run relationship between China and India, also China and Turkey.

  8. Testing the Hypothesis of Biofilm as a Source for Soft Tissue and Cell-Like Structures Preserved in Dinosaur Bone.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mary Higby Schweitzer

    Full Text Available Recovery of still-soft tissue structures, including blood vessels and osteocytes, from dinosaur bone after demineralization was reported in 2005 and in subsequent publications. Despite multiple lines of evidence supporting an endogenous source, it was proposed that these structures arose from contamination from biofilm-forming organisms. To test the hypothesis that soft tissue structures result from microbial invasion of the fossil bone, we used two different biofilm-forming microorganisms to inoculate modern bone fragments from which organic components had been removed. We show fundamental morphological, chemical and textural differences between the resultant biofilm structures and those derived from dinosaur bone. The data do not support the hypothesis that biofilm-forming microorganisms are the source of these structures.

  9. Testing the Hypothesis of Biofilm as a Source for Soft Tissue and Cell-Like Structures Preserved in Dinosaur Bone.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schweitzer, Mary Higby; Moyer, Alison E; Zheng, Wenxia

    2016-01-01

    Recovery of still-soft tissue structures, including blood vessels and osteocytes, from dinosaur bone after demineralization was reported in 2005 and in subsequent publications. Despite multiple lines of evidence supporting an endogenous source, it was proposed that these structures arose from contamination from biofilm-forming organisms. To test the hypothesis that soft tissue structures result from microbial invasion of the fossil bone, we used two different biofilm-forming microorganisms to inoculate modern bone fragments from which organic components had been removed. We show fundamental morphological, chemical and textural differences between the resultant biofilm structures and those derived from dinosaur bone. The data do not support the hypothesis that biofilm-forming microorganisms are the source of these structures.

  10. Testing the associative-link hypothesis in immediate serial recall: Evidence from word frequency and word imageability effects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tse, Chi-Shing; Altarriba, Jeanette

    2007-08-01

    Two immediate serial recall experiments were conducted to test the associative-link hypothesis (Stuart & Hulme, 2000). We manipulated interitem association by varying the intralist latent semantic analysis (LSA) cosines in our 7-item study word lists, each of which consists of high- or low-frequency words in Experiment 1 and high- or low-imageability words in Experiment 2. Whether item recall performance was scored by a serial-recall or free-recall criterion, we found main effects of interitem association, word imageability, and word frequency. The effect of interitem association also interacted with the word frequency effect, but not with the word imageability effect. The LSA-cosinexword frequency interaction occurred in the recency, but not primacy, portion of the serial position curve. The present findings set explanatory boundaries for the associative-link hypothesis and we argue that both item- and associative-based mechanisms are necessary to account for the word frequency effect in immediate serial recall.

  11. 关于假设检验的一种合理推导%A reasonable derivation to hypothesis testing

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    娄银霞

    2012-01-01

    In view of hypothesis testing plays an important role in statistical inference and learning hypothesis testing extremely difficult,By discussing two types of errors to produce and control two types of errors,combined with probability theory of the"small probability theory" and logic approach of the "reductio ad absurdum",given a clear and simple method of hypothesis testing Deduction and reasoning.The method is suitable for the inspection of an overall population mean,the overall proportion of the population variance,also applies to the next two months the overall population mean,the overall proportion of the overall variance of the test.The test results show that the reasoning method is simple,natural,suitable for promotion.%鉴于假设检验在统计推断中的重要地位和学习它的困难度,通过讨论两类错误的产生与控制,结合概率论中的"小概率原理"和逻辑方法中的"反证法",给出了一种清晰简便的假设检验推导和推理方法。该方法适用于一个总体下总体均值、总体比例、总体方差的检验,也适用于两个个总体下总体均值、总体比例、总体方差的检验。检验结果表明,该推理方法简便、自然、适宜推广。

  12. Confidence bounds and hypothesis tests for normal distribution coefficients of variation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steve Verrill; Richard A. Johnson

    2007-01-01

    For normally distributed populations, we obtain confidence bounds on a ratio of two coefficients of variation, provide a test for the equality of k coefficients of variation, and provide confidence bounds on a coefficient of variation shared by k populations.

  13. Anterior brain functions and hypnosis: a test of the frontal hypothesis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kallio, S; Revonsuo, A; Hämäläinen, H; Markela, J; Gruzelier, J

    2001-04-01

    Neuropsychological frontal lobe tests were used to compare individuals with high (n = 8) and low (n = 9) hypnotizability during both baseline and hypnosis conditions. Subjects were assessed on two hypnotic susceptibility scales and a test battery that included the Stroop test, word fluency to letter- and semantic-designated categories, tests of simple reaction time and choice reaction time, a vigilance task, and a questionnaire of 40 self-descriptive statements of focused attention. Effects for hypnotic susceptibility and hypnosis/control conditions were scant across the dependent variables. High hypnotizables scored higher on the questionnaire at baseline, and their performance on the word-fluency task during hypnosis was reduced to a greater extent than lows. Findings indicate that although the frontal area may play an important role regarding hypnotic response, the mechanisms seem to be much more complex than mere general inhibition.

  14. Subliminal or not? Comparing null-hypothesis and Bayesian methods for testing subliminal priming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sand, Anders; Nilsson, Mats E

    2016-08-01

    A difficulty for reports of subliminal priming is demonstrating that participants who actually perceived the prime are not driving the priming effects. There are two conventional methods for testing this. One is to test whether a direct measure of stimulus perception is not significantly above chance on a group level. The other is to use regression to test if an indirect measure of stimulus processing is significantly above zero when the direct measure is at chance. Here we simulated samples in which we assumed that only participants who perceived the primes were primed by it. Conventional analyses applied to these samples had a very large error rate of falsely supporting subliminal priming. Calculating a Bayes factor for the samples very seldom falsely supported subliminal priming. We conclude that conventional tests are not reliable diagnostics of subliminal priming. Instead, we recommend that experimenters calculate a Bayes factor when investigating subliminal priming.

  15. A test of the hydraulic vulnerability segmentation hypothesis in angiosperm and conifer tree species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Daniel M; Wortemann, Remi; McCulloh, Katherine A; Jordan-Meille, Lionel; Ward, Eric; Warren, Jeffrey M; Palmroth, Sari; Domec, Jean-Christophe

    2016-08-01

    Water transport from soils to the atmosphere is critical for plant growth and survival. However, we have a limited understanding about many portions of the whole-tree hydraulic pathway, because the vast majority of published information is on terminal branches. Our understanding of mature tree trunk hydraulic physiology, in particular, is limited. The hydraulic vulnerability segmentation hypothesis (HVSH) stipulates that distal portions of the plant (leaves, branches and roots) should be more vulnerable to embolism than trunks, which are nonredundant organs that require a massive carbon investment. In the current study, we compared vulnerability to loss of hydraulic function, leaf and xylem water potentials and the resulting hydraulic safety margins (in relation to the water potential causing 50% loss of hydraulic conductivity) in leaves, branches, trunks and roots of four angiosperms and four conifer tree species. Across all species, our results supported strongly the HVSH as leaves and roots were less resistant to embolism than branches or trunks. However, branches were consistently more resistant to embolism than any other portion of the plant, including trunks. Also, calculated whole-tree vulnerability to hydraulic dysfunction was much greater than vulnerability in branches. This was due to hydraulic dysfunction in roots and leaves at less negative water potentials than those causing branch or trunk dysfunction. Leaves and roots had narrow or negative hydraulic safety margins, but trunks and branches maintained positive safety margins. By using branch-based hydraulic information as a proxy for entire plants, much research has potentially overestimated embolism resistance, and possibly drought tolerance, for many species. This study highlights the necessity to reconsider past conclusions made about plant resistance to drought based on branch xylem only. This study also highlights the necessity for more research of whole-plant hydraulic physiology to better

  16. Optimal Bayesian Adaptive Design for Test-Item Calibration

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Linden, van der Wim J.; Ren, Hao

    2015-01-01

    An optimal adaptive design for test-item calibration based on Bayesian optimality criteria is presented. The design adapts the choice of field-test items to the examinees taking an operational adaptive test using both the information in the posterior distributions of their ability parameters and the

  17. A common misapplication of statistical inference: Nuisance control with null-hypothesis significance tests.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sassenhagen, Jona; Alday, Phillip M

    2016-11-01

    Experimental research on behavior and cognition frequently rests on stimulus or subject selection where not all characteristics can be fully controlled, even when attempting strict matching. For example, when contrasting patients to controls, variables such as intelligence or socioeconomic status are often correlated with patient status. Similarly, when presenting word stimuli, variables such as word frequency are often correlated with primary variables of interest. One procedure very commonly employed to control for such nuisance effects is conducting inferential tests on confounding stimulus or subject characteristics. For example, if word length is not significantly different for two stimulus sets, they are considered as matched for word length. Such a test has high error rates and is conceptually misguided. It reflects a common misunderstanding of statistical tests: interpreting significance not to refer to inference about a particular population parameter, but about 1. the sample in question, 2. the practical relevance of a sample difference (so that a nonsignificant test is taken to indicate evidence for the absence of relevant differences). We show inferential testing for assessing nuisance effects to be inappropriate both pragmatically and philosophically, present a survey showing its high prevalence, and briefly discuss an alternative in the form of regression including nuisance variables.

  18. Problem formulation and hypothesis testing for environmental risk assessments of genetically modified crops.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raybould, Alan

    2006-01-01

    Environmental risk assessments can provide high confidence of minimal risk by testing theories, "risk hypotheses", that predict the likelihood of unacceptable harmful events. The creation of risk hypotheses and a plan to test them is called problem formulation. Effective problem formulation seeks to maximize the possibility of detecting effects that indicate potential risk; if such effects are not detected, minimal risk is indicated with high confidence. Two important implications are that artificial test conditions can increase confidence, whereas prescriptive data requirements can reduce confidence (increase uncertainty) if they constrain problem formulation. Poor problem formulation can increase environmental risk because it leads to the collection of superfluous data that may delay or prevent the introduction of environmentally beneficial products.

  19. Comment on “Testing the Interbasin Flow Hypothesis at Death Valley, California”

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winograd, Isaac J.; Fridrich, Christopher J.; Sweetkind, Donald; Belcher, Wayne R.; Thomas, James M.

    In the 1960s, a major hydrogeologic investigation was conducted at the Nevada Test Site (NTS, Figure 1) that included drilling, hydraulic testing, and hydrogeochemical studies in conjunction with geologic mapping and geophysical surveys. This work demonstrated that a large part of south central Nevada is underlain by thick (several kilometers) highly fractured Paleozoic carbonate rocks that typically act as an aquifer. The aquifer flanks and underlies most of the intermontane basins from east central Nevada southward, through the NTS, to the southern Funeral Mountains east of Death Valley (Figure 1). Water levels measured in many test holes demonstrate that the potentiometric surface in the carbonate aquifer generally is uninterrupted by the ridges that separate the many topographically closed basins of the region.

  20. God's punishment and public goods : A test of the supernatural punishment hypothesis in 186 world cultures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Dominic D P

    2005-12-01

    Cooperation towards public goods relies on credible threats of punishment to deter cheats. However, punishing is costly, so it remains unclear who incurred the costs of enforcement in our evolutionary past. Theoretical work suggests that human cooperation may be promoted if people believe in supernatural punishment for moral transgressions. This theory is supported by new work in cognitive psychology and by anecdotal ethnographic evidence, but formal quantitative tests remain to be done. Using data from 186 societies around the globe, I test whether the likelihood of supernatural punishment-indexed by the importance of moralizing "high gods"-is associated with cooperation.

  1. Nitrogen Exchanges: Testing the Hypothesis of a Country without Agricultural Production

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M.-F. Slak

    2001-01-01

    Full Text Available Today, finding data on agricultural nitrogen balances is quite easy. Calculations of such balances are carried out by most of the European countries as an indicator of environmental pollution attributable to the agricultural sector. In France, average values of agricultural nitrogen balances show an excess of 1.5 to 2 million tons of nitrogen. This excess is enormous. What would the balance of a country be if agricultural activity were stopped? In the following article, a country (France is used as an example without agriculture is studied in order to assess its nitrogen balance. Using a previously published model describing nitrogen input and output of a given country, nitrogen flows are identified. Inputs include deposition, fixation, and products not intended for agricultural use. Outputs are reduced to zero if agriculture disappears (in France, agriculture is the only sector exporting products containing nitrogen. All flows are calculated considering the hypothesis of disappearance of agriculture. Nitrogen requirements to feed people and pets in France are estimated based on medical and veterinary data (recommended daily amounts for proteins and/or usual average consumption. Indeed, most of the food that nourishes the French population is produced nationally. If agriculture stops, it will be necessary to import food from foreign countries. Results show an unexpectedly high excess (for a country without agriculture having a structure similar to France: number of human beings and pets of 1.5 million tons of nitrogen. An attempt to calculate an agricultural balance with the same data gives a result close to 3 million tons. Differences in French agricultural balances found in the literature can mainly be explained by values taken into account for deposition and fixation (values used here are at least 300,000 tons higher than values used by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. In conclusion, nitrogen excess in agriculture

  2. Developing the Psychological Strain Scales (PSS): Reliability, Validity, and Preliminary Hypothesis Tests.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Jie; Lu, Juncheng; Zhao, Sibo; Lamis, Dorian A; Li, Ning; Kong, Yuanyuan; Jia, Cunxian; Zhou, Li; Ma, Zhenyu

    2014-01-01

    Since its inception, the Strain Theory of Suicide has been tested and supported in a number of empirical studies. This social psychological theory can be employed as a complementary conceptualization to account for suicidal behaviors as well as mental disorders. However, the lack of consistent measurements of the strains limits the application of the theory in scientific research. Our research team has developed such scales for future testing of the Strain Theory of Suicide in a more systematic approach. For the initial items to measure the four strains (value, aspiration, deprivation, and coping), we solicited approximately 40 items for each strain with high face validity by about 30 fellow researchers. A preliminary examination of about 160 items for consistency and validity, with a sample of about 300 college students, yielded 20 consistent items for each of the four strain scales. Then, a second study was conducted at a different university with approximately 500 students to further streamline each of the four strain scales and test the validity of each with corresponding established scales and variables. As a result, 15 items were selected for each of the four Psychological Strain Scales (PSS). In correlation and multiple regression analyses, we found support for the hypotheses regarding the positive associations between psychological strains measured by the PSS and psychopathology including suicidal ideation. Follow up research with the new scales needs to be carried out in order to test the effects of psychological strains on suicide and mental disorders for various populations.

  3. Testing the hypothesis of modified dynamics with low surface brightness galaxies and other evidence

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    McGaugh, SS; de Blok, WJG

    1998-01-01

    The rotation curves of low surface brightness galaxies provide a unique data set with which to test alternative theories of gravitation over a large dynamic range in size, mass, surface density, and acceleration. Many clearly fail, including any in which the mass discrepancy appears at a particular

  4. Estimating the Probability of Being the Best System: A Generalized Method and Nonparametric Hypothesis Test

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-03-01

    Mendenhall , and Sheaffer [25]. For the remainder of this paper, however, we will make use of the Wilcoxon rank sum test for purposes of comparison with the...B. W. Silverman, Density Estimation for Statistics and Data Analysis, Chapman & Hall/CRC, 1986, p. 48. [25] D. D. Wackerly, W. Mendenhall III and R

  5. What's in a p? Reassessing best practices for conducting and reporting hypothesis-testing research

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Meyer, Klaus E.; van Witteloostuijn, Arjen; Beugelsdijk, Sjoerd

    2017-01-01

    Social science research has recently been subject to considerable criticism regarding the validity and power of empirical tests published in leading journals, and business scholarship is no exception. Transparency and replicability of empirical findings are essential to build a cumulative body of sc

  6. Optimal Trend Tests for Genetic Association Studies of Heterogeneous Diseases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Wen-Chung

    2016-06-09

    The Cochran-Armitage trend test is a standard procedure in genetic association studies. It is a directed test with high power to detect genetic effects that follow the gene-dosage model. In this paper, the author proposes optimal trend tests for genetic association studies of heterogeneous diseases. Monte-Carlo simulations show that the power gain of the optimal trend tests over the conventional Cochran-Armitage trend test is striking when the genetic effects are heterogeneous. The easy-to-use R 3.1.2 software (R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria) code is provided. The optimal trend tests are recommended for routine use.

  7. Testing the junk-food hypothesis on marine birds: Effects of prey type on growth and development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romano, Marc D.; Piatt, J.F.; Roby, D.D.

    2006-01-01

    The junk-food hypothesis attributes declines in productivity of marine birds and mammals to changes in the species of prey they consume and corresponding differences in nutritional quality of those prey. To test this hypothesis nestling Black-legged Kittiwakes (Rissa tridactyla) and Tufted Puffins (Fratercula cirrhata) were raised in captivity under controlled conditions to determine whether the type and quality of fish consumed by young seabirds constrains their growth and development. Some nestlings were fed rations of Capelin (Mallotus villosus), Herring (Clupea pallasi) or Sand Lance (Ammodytes hexapterus) and their growth was compared with nestlings raised on equal biomass rations of Walleye Pollock (Theragra chalcograma). Nestlings fed rations of herring, sand lance, or capelin experienced higher growth increments than nestlings fed pollock. The energy density of forage fish fed to nestlings had a marked effect on growth increments and could be expected to have an effect on pre- and post-fledging survival of nestlings in the wild. These results provide empirical support for the junk-food hypothesis.

  8. Testing the Developmental Origins of Health and Disease Hypothesis for Psychopathology Using Family-Based Quasi-Experimental Designs

    Science.gov (United States)

    D’Onofrio, Brian M.; Class, Quetzal A.; Lahey, Benjamin B.; Larsson, Henrik

    2014-01-01

    The Developmental Origin of Health and Disease (DOHaD) hypothesis is a broad theoretical framework that emphasizes how early risk factors have a causal influence on psychopathology. Researchers have raised concerns about the causal interpretation of statistical associations between early risk factors and later psychopathology because most existing studies have been unable to rule out the possibility of environmental and genetic confounding. In this paper we illustrate how family-based quasi-experimental designs can test the DOHaD hypothesis by ruling out alternative hypotheses. We review the logic underlying sibling-comparison, co-twin control, offspring of siblings/twins, adoption, and in vitro fertilization designs. We then present results from studies using these designs focused on broad indices of fetal development (low birth weight and gestational age) and a particular teratogen, smoking during pregnancy. The results provide mixed support for the DOHaD hypothesis for psychopathology, illustrating the critical need to use design features that rule out unmeasured confounding. PMID:25364377

  9. Testing the fecundity advantage hypothesis with Sitobion avenae, Rhopalosiphum padi, and Schizaphis graminum (Hemiptera: Aphididae) feeding on ten wheat accessions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Xiang-Shun; Liu, Xiao-Feng; Thieme, Thomas; Zhang, Gai-Sheng; Liu, Tong-Xian; Zhao, Hui-Yan

    2015-01-01

    The fecundity advantage hypothesis suggests that females with a large body size produce more offspring than smaller females. We tested this hypothesis by exploring the correlations between life-history traits of three aphid species feeding on ten wheat accessions at three levels of analysis with respect to the host plant: overall, inter-accession, and intra-accession. We found that fecundity was significantly correlated with mean relative growth rate (MRGR), weight gain, and development time, and that the faster aphid develops the greater body and fecundity, depending on aphid species, wheat accession, and analyses level. Larger aphids of all three species produced more offspring overall; this held true for Sitobion avenae and Schizaphis graminum at the inter-accession level, and for S. avenae, Rhopalosiphum padi, and S. graminum for three, five, and eight accessions respectively at the intra-accession level. Only one correlation, between intrinsic rates of natural increase (rm) and MRGR, was significant for all aphid species at all three analysis levels. A more accurate statement of the fecundity advantage hypothesis is that cereal aphids with greater MRGR generally maintain higher rm on wheat. Our results also provide a method for exploring relationships between individual life-history traits and population dynamics for insects on host plants. PMID:26680508

  10. ON ESTIMATION AND HYPOTHESIS TESTING OF THE GRAIN SIZE DISTRIBUTION BY THE SALTYKOV METHOD

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuri Gulbin

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available The paper considers the problem of validity of unfolding the grain size distribution with the back-substitution method. Due to the ill-conditioned nature of unfolding matrices, it is necessary to evaluate the accuracy and precision of parameter estimation and to verify the possibility of expected grain size distribution testing on the basis of intersection size histogram data. In order to review these questions, the computer modeling was used to compare size distributions obtained stereologically with those possessed by three-dimensional model aggregates of grains with a specified shape and random size. Results of simulations are reported and ways of improving the conventional stereological techniques are suggested. It is shown that new improvements in estimating and testing procedures enable grain size distributions to be unfolded more efficiently.

  11. Testing the Kerr black hole hypothesis: Comparison between the gravitational wave and the iron line approaches

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alejandro Cárdenas-Avendaño

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The recent announcement of the detection of gravitational waves by the LIGO/Virgo Collaboration has opened a new window to test the nature of astrophysical black holes. Konoplya & Zhidenko have shown how the LIGO data of GW 150914 can constrain possible deviations from the Kerr metric. In this letter, we compare their constraints with those that can be obtained from accreting black holes by fitting their X-ray reflection spectrum, the so-called iron line method. We simulate observations with eXTP, a next generation X-ray mission, finding constraints much stronger than those obtained by Konoplya & Zhidenko. Our results can at least show that, contrary to what is quite commonly believed, it is not obvious that gravitational waves are the most powerful approach to test strong gravity. In the presence of high quality data and with the systematics under control, the iron line method may provide competitive constraints.

  12. Testing the Kerr black hole hypothesis: comparison between the gravitational wave and the iron line approaches

    CERN Document Server

    Cardenas-Avendano, Alejandro; Bambi, Cosimo

    2016-01-01

    The recent announcement of the detection of gravitational waves by the LIGO/Virgo collaboration has opened a new window to test the nature of astrophysical black holes. Konoplya & Zhidenko have shown how the LIGO data of GW 150914 can constrain possible deviations from the Kerr metric. In this letter, we compare their constraints with those that can be obtained from accreting black holes by fitting their reflected X-ray spectrum, the so-called iron line method. We simulate observations with eXTP, a next generation X-ray mission, finding constraints much stronger than those obtained by Konoplya & Zhidenko. Our results can at least show that, contrary to what is quite commonly believed, it is not obvious that gravitational waves are the most powerful approach to test strong gravity. In the presence of high quality data and with the systematics under control, the iron line method may provide competitive constraints.

  13. Testing the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis with bird populations as habitat-specific environmental indicators: evidence from Canada.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lantz, Van; Martínez-Espiñeira, Roberto

    2008-04-01

    The traditional environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis postulates that environmental degradation follows an inverted U-shaped relationship with gross domestic product (GDP) per capita. We tested the EKC hypothesis with bird populations in 5 different habitats as environmental quality indicators. Because birds are considered environmental goods, for them the EKC hypothesis would instead be associated with a U-shaped relationship between bird populations and GDP per capita. In keeping with the literature, we included other variables in the analysis-namely, human population density and time index variables (the latter variable captured the impact of persistent and exogenous climate and/or policy changes on bird populations over time). Using data from 9 Canadian provinces gathered over 37 years, we used a generalized least-squares regression for each bird habitat type, which accounted for the panel structure of the data, the cross-sectional dependence across provinces in the residuals, heteroskedasticity, and fixed- or random-effect specifications of the models. We found evidence that supports the EKC hypothesis for 3 of the 5 bird population habitat types. In addition, the relationship between human population density and the different bird populations varied, which emphasizes the complex nature of the impact that human populations have on the environment. The relationship between the time-index variable and the different bird populations also varied, which indicates there are other persistent and significant influences on bird populations over time. Overall our EKC results were consistent with those found for threatened bird species, indicating that economic prosperity does indeed act to benefit some bird populations.

  14. Investigating the evolutionary history of the Pacific Northwest mesic forest ecosystem: hypothesis testing within a comparative phylogeographic framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carstens, Bryan C; Brunsfeld, Steven J; Demboski, John R; Good, Jeffrey M; Sullivan, Jack

    2005-08-01

    We examine the evolution of mesic forest ecosystems in the Pacific Northwest of North America using a statistical phylogeography approach in four animal and two plant lineages. Three a priori hypotheses, which explain the disjunction in the mesic forest ecosystem with either recent dispersal or ancient vicariance, are tested with phylogenetic and coalescent methods. We find strong support in three amphibian lineages (Ascaphus spp., and Dicampton spp., and Plethodon vandykei and P. idahoensis) for deep divergence between coastal and inland populations, as predicted by the ancient vicariance hypothesis. Unlike the amphibians, the disjunction in other Pacific Northwest lineages is likely due to recent dispersal along a northern route. Topological and population divergence tests support the northern dispersal hypothesis in the water vole (Microtus richardsoni) and northern dispersal has some support in both the dusky willow (Salix melanopsis) and whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis). These analyses demonstrate that genetic data sampled from across an ecosystem can provide insight into the evolution of ecological communities and suggest that the advantages of a statistical phylogeographic approach are most pronounced in comparisons across multiple taxa in a particular ecosystem. Genetic patterns in organisms as diverse as willows and salamanders can be used to test general regional hypotheses, providing a consistent metric for comparison among members of an ecosystem with disparate life-history traits.

  15. On-line Flagging of Anomalies and Adaptive Sequential Hypothesis Testing for Fine-feature Characterization of Geosynchronous Satellites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chaudhary, A.; Payne, T.; Kinateder, K.; Dao, P.; Beecher, E.; Boone, D.; Elliott, B.

    The objective of on-line flagging in this paper is to perform interactive assessment of geosynchronous satellites anomalies such as cross-tagging of a satellites in a cluster, solar panel offset change, etc. This assessment will utilize a Bayesian belief propagation procedure and will include automated update of baseline signature data for the satellite, while accounting for the seasonal changes. Its purpose is to enable an ongoing, automated assessment of satellite behavior through its life cycle using the photometry data collected during the synoptic search performed by a ground or space-based sensor as a part of its metrics mission. The change in the satellite features will be reported along with the probabilities of Type I and Type II errors. The objective of adaptive sequential hypothesis testing in this paper is to define future sensor tasking for the purpose of characterization of fine features of the satellite. The tasking will be designed in order to maximize new information with the least number of photometry data points to be collected during the synoptic search by a ground or space-based sensor. Its calculation is based on the utilization of information entropy techniques. The tasking is defined by considering a sequence of hypotheses in regard to the fine features of the satellite. The optimal observation conditions are then ordered in order to maximize new information about a chosen fine feature. The combined objective of on-line flagging and adaptive sequential hypothesis testing is to progressively discover new information about the features of a geosynchronous satellites by leveraging the regular but sparse cadence of data collection during the synoptic search performed by a ground or space-based sensor. Automated Algorithm to Detect Changes in Geostationary Satellite's Configuration and Cross-Tagging Phan Dao, Air Force Research Laboratory/RVB By characterizing geostationary satellites based on photometry and color photometry, analysts can

  16. Induction of Monocular Stereopsis by Altering Focus Distance: A Test of Ames's Hypothesis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vishwanath, Dhanraj

    2016-03-01

    Viewing a real three-dimensional scene or a stereoscopic image with both eyes generates a vivid phenomenal impression of depth known as stereopsis. Numerous reports have highlighted the fact that an impression of stereopsis can be induced in the absence of binocular disparity. A method claimed by Ames (1925) involved altering accommodative (focus) distance while monocularly viewing a picture. This claim was tested on naïve observers using a method inspired by the observations of Gogel and Ogle on the equidistance tendency. Consistent with Ames's claim, most observers reported that the focus manipulation induced an impression of stereopsis comparable to that obtained by monocular-aperture viewing.

  17. Guns, testosterone, and aggression: an experimental test of a mediational hypothesis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klinesmith, Jennifer; Kasser, Tim; McAndrew, Francis T

    2006-07-01

    We tested whether interacting with a gun increased testosterone levels and later aggressive behavior. Thirty male college students provided a saliva sample (for testosterone assay), interacted with either a gun or a children's toy for 15 min, and then provided another saliva sample. Next, subjects added as much hot sauce as they wanted to a cup of water they believed another subject would have to drink. Males who interacted with the gun showed significantly greater increases in testosterone and added more hot sauce to the water than did those who interacted with the children's toy. Moreover, increases in testosterone partially mediated the effects of interacting with the gun on this aggressive behavior.

  18. Integrating multiple lines of evidence into historical biogeography hypothesis testing: a Bison bison case study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Metcalf, Jessica L; Prost, Stefan; Nogués-Bravo, David; DeChaine, Eric G; Anderson, Christian; Batra, Persaram; Araújo, Miguel B; Cooper, Alan; Guralnick, Robert P

    2014-02-22

    One of the grand goals of historical biogeography is to understand how and why species' population sizes and distributions change over time. Multiple types of data drawn from disparate fields, combined into a single modelling framework, are necessary to document changes in a species's demography and distribution, and to determine the drivers responsible for change. Yet truly integrated approaches are challenging and rarely performed. Here, we discuss a modelling framework that integrates spatio-temporal fossil data, ancient DNA, palaeoclimatological reconstructions, bioclimatic envelope modelling and coalescence models in order to statistically test alternative hypotheses of demographic and potential distributional changes for the iconic American bison (Bison bison). Using different assumptions about the evolution of the bioclimatic niche, we generate hypothetical distributional and demographic histories of the species. We then test these demographic models by comparing the genetic signature predicted by serial coalescence against sequence data derived from subfossils and modern populations. Our results supported demographic models that include both climate and human-associated drivers of population declines. This synthetic approach, integrating palaeoclimatology, bioclimatic envelopes, serial coalescence, spatio-temporal fossil data and heterochronous DNA sequences, improves understanding of species' historical biogeography by allowing consideration of both abiotic and biotic interactions at the population level.

  19. The hard parts of the Cambrian Explosion: a palaeobiological approach to testing the 'biomineralization toolkit' hypothesis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murdock, Duncan

    2017-04-01

    The Cambrian Explosion was the most dramatic event in the history of animal life on Earth, yet the processes underlying it are poorly understood not least the role of biomineralization in driving this fundamental evolutionary episode. One explanation for this event, based on observations on the developmental and molecular biology of modern organisms, is that all animals inherited a common 'toolkit' of genes, independently co-opted to similar tasks, including building skeletons. This initially imprecise 'toolkit' was subsequently honed by the acquisition of more and more complex gene regulatory networks. This predicts that animal skeletons, and by inference their organic frameworks, should exhibit a higher degree of morphological plasticity at their origin than later in their evolutionary history - a prediction that is virtually untested. Here I set out a new approach to testing this prediction, by quantifying the phenotypic variation displayed in fossil remains of some of the earliest animal skeletons, over multiple scales from microscopic variations in their component biominerals to how skeletons themselves are put together. This approach will provide direct evidence to test the importance of the genetic basis of the skeleton in the origin of the animals, making a significant contribution to our understanding of this crucial event in the history of life on Earth, including the evolution of our own ancestors.

  20. Hypothesis testing and estimation in ordinal data under a simple crossover design.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lui, Kung-Jong; Chang, Kuang-Chao

    2012-01-01

    Since each patient serves as his/her own control, the crossover design can be of use to improve power as compared with the parallel-groups design in studying noncurative treatments to certain chronic diseases. Although the research studies on the crossover design have been quite intensive, the discussions on analyzing ordinal data under such a design are truly limited. We propose using the generalized odds ratio (GOR) for paired sample data to measure the relative effect on patient responses for both treatment and period in ordinal data under a simple crossover trial. Assuming the treatment and period effects are multiplicative, we note that one can easily derive the maximum likelihood estimator (LE) in closed forms for the GOR of treatment and period effects. We develop asymptotic and exact procedures for testing treatment and period effects. We further derive asymptotic and exact interval estimators for the GOR of treatment and period effects. We use the data taken from a crossover trial to assess the clarity of leaflet instructions between two devices among asthma patients to illustrate the use of these test procedures and estimators developed here.

  1. An experimental test of the viscous anisotropy hypothesis for partially molten rocks

    CERN Document Server

    Qi, Chao; Katz, Richard F; Takei, Yasuko

    2014-01-01

    Chemical differentiation of rocky planets occurs by melt segregation away from the region of melting. The mechanics of this process, however, are complex and incompletely understood. In partially molten rocks undergoing shear deformation, melt pockets between grains align coherently in the stress field; it has been hypothesized that this anisotropy in microstructure creates an anisotropy in the viscosity of the aggregate. With the inclusion of anisotropic viscosity, continuum, two-phase-flow models reproduce the emergence and angle of melt-enriched bands that form in laboratory experiments. In the same theoretical context, these models also predict sample-scale melt migration due to a gradient in shear stress. Under torsional deformation, melt is expected to segregate radially inward. Here we present new torsional deformation experiments on partially molten rocks that test this prediction. Microstructural analyses of the distribution of melt and solid reveal a radial gradient in melt fraction, with more melt ...

  2. Induction of Monocular Stereopsis by Altering Focus Distance: A Test of Ames’s Hypothesis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dhanraj Vishwanath

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Viewing a real three-dimensional scene or a stereoscopic image with both eyes generates a vivid phenomenal impression of depth known as stereopsis. Numerous reports have highlighted the fact that an impression of stereopsis can be induced in the absence of binocular disparity. A method claimed by Ames (1925 involved altering accommodative (focus distance while monocularly viewing a picture. This claim was tested on naïve observers using a method inspired by the observations of Gogel and Ogle on the equidistance tendency. Consistent with Ames’s claim, most observers reported that the focus manipulation induced an impression of stereopsis comparable to that obtained by monocular-aperture viewing.

  3. Singular Spectrum Analysis for astronomical time series: constructing a parsimonious hypothesis test

    CERN Document Server

    Greco, G; Kobayashi, S; Ghil, M; Branchesi, M; Guidorzi, C; Stratta, G; Ciszak, M; Marino, F; Ortolan, A

    2015-01-01

    We present a data-adaptive spectral method - Monte Carlo Singular Spectrum Analysis (MC-SSA) - and its modification to tackle astrophysical problems. Through numerical simulations we show the ability of the MC-SSA in dealing with $1/f^{\\beta}$ power-law noise affected by photon counting statistics. Such noise process is simulated by a first-order autoregressive, AR(1) process corrupted by intrinsic Poisson noise. In doing so, we statistically estimate a basic stochastic variation of the source and the corresponding fluctuations due to the quantum nature of light. In addition, MC-SSA test retains its effectiveness even when a significant percentage of the signal falls below a certain level of detection, e.g., caused by the instrument sensitivity. The parsimonious approach presented here may be broadly applied, from the search for extrasolar planets to the extraction of low-intensity coherent phenomena probably hidden in high energy transients.

  4. Motivation towards extracurricular activities and motivation at school: A test of the generalization effect hypothesis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Denault, Anne-Sophie; Guay, Frédéric

    2017-01-01

    Participation in extracurricular activities is a promising avenue for enhancing students' school motivation. Using self-determination theory (Deci & Ryan, 2000), the goal of this study was to test a serial multiple mediator model. In this model, students' perceptions of autonomy support from their extracurricular activity leader predicted their activity-based intrinsic and identified regulations. In turn, these regulations predicted their school-based intrinsic and identified regulations during the same school year. Finally, these regulations predicted their school-based intrinsic and identified regulations one year later. A total of 276 youths (54% girls) from disadvantaged neighborhoods were surveyed over two waves of data collection. The proposed mediation model was supported for both types of regulation. These results highlight the generalization effects of motivation from the extracurricular activity context to the school context. Copyright © 2016 The Foundation for Professionals in Services for Adolescents. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. A test of the culture-performance related distress hypothesis among employees in a collectivistic culture

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pheko, M.M

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available To test the notions that people from collectivist cultures may experience more intense Sensitivity Towards being the Target of Upward Comparison (STTUC responses the current study investigated the relationships between traditional gender role orientation and STTUC, and collectivistic cultural orientation and STTUC. Using a quantitative, cross-sectional survey approach, a convenient sample of 464 participants from various organizations in Botswana completed the questionnaire. The participants were mostly female (59.9%, in a dating relationship (67.9%, and between the ages of 20 and 57 (M = 32.69, SD = 7.43. In the main, the hypotheses were not supported as the correlation results indicated that neither collectivistic cultural orientation nor traditional gender role orientation were linked to STTUC experiences. Discussions center on the importance of reporting and suggesting theoretical justifications for the so called ‘”nonsignificant findings.” Implications of the empirical findings and the future research directions are also discussed.

  6. Testing the Kerr black hole hypothesis using X-ray reflection spectroscopy

    CERN Document Server

    Bambi, Cosimo; Dauser, Thomas; Garcia, Javier A; Nampalliwar, Sourabh

    2016-01-01

    We present a code to construct the first X-ray reflection model for testing the assumption that the metric of astrophysical black holes is described by the Kerr solution. We employ the formalism of the transfer function proposed by Cunningham. The calculations of the reflection spectrum of a thin accretion disk are split into two parts: the calculation of the transfer function and the calculation of the local spectrum at any emission point in the disk. The transfer function only depends on the background metric and takes into account all the relativistic effects (gravitational redshift, Doppler boosting, light bending). Our code computes the transfer function for a spacetime described by the Johannsen metric and can be easily extended to any stationary, axisymmetric, and asymptotically flat black hole spacetime. Transfer functions and single line shapes in the Kerr metric are compared with those calculated from existing codes to check that we reach the necessary accuracy. This work is the first step to extend...

  7. Expertise in cognitive psychology: testing the hypothesis of long-term working memory in a study of soccer players.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Postal, Virginie

    2004-10-01

    This experiment compared several theories of expertise and exceptional performances in cognitive psychology. One current conception assumes that experts in a specific domain have developed a long-term working memory, which accounts for the difference in memory performance between experts and novices. The principal characteristics of this memory are the speed with which processes of storage and retrieval function and the existence of retrieval structures that allow a temporary activation of the knowledge store in long-term memory. Other authors such as Vicente and Wang argue this notion does not account for memory performance that is not intrinsic to the domain of expertise. We attempt to clarify the two viewpoints and to focus on this debate by testing the hypothesis of long-term working memory using soccer as the domain of expertise and by comparing the cognitive performance of participants who have different expertise (novices, supporters, players, and coaches). 35 male participants were administered a new version of the Reading Span test to assess their long-term working memory according to two conditions. In the first condition (structured condition), the last word of each sentence was related to the soccer domain, and these words were related to each other in such a manner that they represented a part of the game. In the second condition (unstructured condition), the last word of each sentence was related to soccer but these words did not represent part of the game. Analysis showed that the sentence span increased as a function of expertise for the structured condition but not for the unstructured condition. The results were interpreted in the framework of the constraint attunement hypothesis proposed by Vicente in 1992 and the long-term working memory hypothesis proposed by Ericsson and Kintsch in 1995.

  8. Testing the ultra-light axion hypothesis with CMB-SIV

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grin, Daniel; Hlozek, Renee; Marsh, David

    2017-01-01

    Measurements of cosmic microwave background (CMB) anisotropies provide strong evidence for the existence of dark matter and dark energy. They can also test its composition, probing the energy density and particle mass of different dark-matter and dark-energy components. CMB data have already shown that ultra-light axions (ULAs) with mass in the range 10-32 eV→10-26 eV compose a fraction constants of fa≈1016 GeV, at the grand unified scale. CMB-S4 could improve the CMB lower bound on the ULA mass from ˜10-25 eV to 10-23 eV, nearing the mass range probed by dwarf galaxy abundances and dark-matter halo density profiles. These improvements will allow for a multi-σ detection of percent-level departures from CDM over a wide range of masses. Much of this improvement is driven by the effects of weak gravitational lensing on the CMB, which breaks degeneracies between ULAs and neutrinos. We also find that the addition of ULA parameters does not significantly degrade the sensitivity of the CMB to neutrino masses. These results were obtained using the axionCAMB code (a modification to the CAMB Boltzmann code), presented here for public use.

  9. Using observations of slipping velocities to test the hypothesis that reconnection heats the active region corona

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Kai; Longcope, Dana; Guo, Yang; Ding, Mingde

    2017-08-01

    Numerous proposed coronal heating mechanisms have invoked magnetic reconnection in some role. Testing such a mechanism requires a method of measuring magnetic reconnection coupled with a prediction of the heat delivered by reconnection at the observed rate. In the absence of coronal reconnection, field line footpoints move at the same velocity as the plasma they find themselves in. The rate of coronal reconnection is therefore related to any discrepancy observed between footpoint motion and that of the local plasma — so-called slipping motion. We propose a novel method to measure this velocity discrepancy by combining a sequence of non-linear force-free field extrapolations with maps of photospheric velocity. We obtain both from a sequence of vector magnetograms of an active region (AR). We then propose a method of computing the coronal heating produced under the assumption the observed slipping velocity was due entirely to coronal reconnection. This heating rate is used to predict density and temperature at points along an equilibrium loop. This, in turn, is used to synthesize emission in EUV and SXR bands. We perform this analysis using a sequence of HMI vector magnetograms of a particular AR and compare synthesized images to observations of the same AR made by SDO. We also compare differential emission measure inferred from those observations to that of the modeled corona.

  10. Racial Discrimination and Mental Health in the USA: Testing the Reverse Racism Hypothesis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woo, Bongki

    2017-08-15

    The present study examined whether the health disadvantages consequent of racial discrimination experienced by four racial/ethnic minority groups are equivalent with that of the dominant racial group. Data was derived from the 2013 National Epidemiologic Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions. Logistic regression and heterogeneous choice models were used to test the moderating role of race/ethnicity in regards to the associations between racial discrimination and ten DSM-V diagnoses. Non-Hispanic blacks reported the highest levels of experiencing racial discrimination, while Non-Hispanic whites reported the lowest. Exposure to racial discrimination was associated with higher odds of psychiatric disorders for non-Hispanic blacks, non-Hispanic Asian/Pacific Islanders, and Hispanics than it was for non-Hispanic whites, while non-Hispanic American Indians/Alaska Natives had lower odds of psychiatric disorders. Analyses indicated that racial discrimination poses stronger mental health disadvantages on racial/ethnic minorities than it does to non-Hispanic whites. This finding not only refutes the notion of reverse racism, but also calls for more efforts to close the racial/ethnic health gap for those exposed to racial discrimination.

  11. Exchange and cohesion in dyads and triads: A test of Simmel's hypothesis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoon, Jeongkoo; Thye, Shane R; Lawler, Edward J

    2013-11-01

    This paper uses social exchange theory to address a classic question posed by Simmel (1964) regarding dyads and triads. The question is whether exchanges in a triad will generate more cohesion at the group level than exchanges in an isolated dyad. The main hypotheses, integrating several ideas from Simmel and social exchange theories, are as follows. First, triads generate less variability of behavior than dyads; that is, there is more uniformity or convergence in triads. Second, in the context of repeated exchange, we predict higher levels of cohesion in triads than in dyads. Third, positive emotion or affect has a stronger impact on cohesion in dyads than in triads, whereas uncertainty reduction has a stronger impact on cohesion in triads. To test these hypotheses, an experiment compared isolated dyads to dyads nested in a triadic exchange network. Subjects engaged in exchanges across a series of distinct episodes, using standard experimental procedures from research on relational cohesion (Lawler and Yoon, 1996) and exchange networks (Molm and Cook, 1995; Willer, 1999). Consistent with the hypotheses, the results reveal more convergence of behavior and higher cohesion in triads than in dyads; moreover, uncertainty reduction is the primary basis for cohesion in the triad, whereas positive affect was the primary basis for cohesion in the dyad. These results are discussed in relation to Simmelian dyad-triad dynamics and the theory of relational cohesion.

  12. A test of the oxidative damage hypothesis for discontinuous gas exchange in the locust Locusta migratoria.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matthews, Philip G D; Snelling, Edward P; Seymour, Roger S; White, Craig R

    2012-08-23

    The discontinuous gas exchange cycle (DGC) is a breathing pattern displayed by many insects, characterized by periodic breath-holding and intermittently low tracheal O(2) levels. It has been hypothesized that the adaptive value of DGCs is to reduce oxidative damage, with low tracheal O(2) partial pressures (PO(2) ≈ 2-5 kPa) occurring to reduce the production of oxygen free radicals. If this is so, insects displaying DGCs should continue to actively defend a low tracheal PO(2) even when breathing higher than atmospheric levels of oxygen (hyperoxia). This behaviour has been observed in moth pupae exposed to ambient PO(2) up to 50 kPa. To test this observation in adult insects, we implanted fibre-optic oxygen optodes within the tracheal systems of adult migratory locusts Locusta migratoria exposed to normoxia, hypoxia and hyperoxia. In normoxic and hypoxic atmospheres, the minimum tracheal PO(2) that occurred during DGCs varied between 3.4 and 1.2 kPa. In hyperoxia up to 40.5 kPa, the minimum tracheal PO(2) achieved during a DGC exceeded 30 kPa, increasing with ambient levels. These results are consistent with a respiratory control mechanism that functions to satisfy O(2) requirements by maintaining PO(2) above a critical level, not defend against high levels of O(2).

  13. Testing the "Sexually Abused-Abuser Hypothesis" in Adolescents: A Population-Based Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aebi, Marcel; Landolt, Markus A; Mueller-Pfeiffer, Christoph; Schnyder, Ulrich; Maier, Thomas; Mohler-Kuo, Meichun

    2015-11-01

    A long-standing belief in the literature on sex offenders is that sexually victimized youths are at increased risk of becoming sex offenders themselves. The present study tested the link between past sexual abuse, either with or without contact, and sexually offending behavior in a representative sample of male and female adolescents while controlling for other types of abuse, mental health problems, substance use, and non-sexual violent behaviors. Self-reported data were collected from a nationally representative sample of 6,628 students attending 9th grade public school in Switzerland (3,434 males, 3,194 females, mean age = 15.50 years, SD = 0.66 years). Exposure to contact and non-contact types of sexual abuse was assessed using the Child Sexual Abuse Questionnaire and sexually offending behavior by the presence of any of three behaviors indicating sexual coercion. Two-hundred-forty-five males (7.1 %) and 40 females (1.2 %) reported having sexually coerced another person. After controlling for non-sexual abuse, low parent education, urban versus rural living, mental health problems, substance use, and non-sexual violent behavior, male adolescents who were victims of contact sexual abuse and non-contact sexual abuse were significantly more likely to report coercive sexual behaviors. Females who experienced contact or non-contact sexual abuse were also found at increased risk of committing sexual coercion after controlling for covariates. The present findings demonstrate a strong relationship between past sexual abuse, with and without physical contact, and sexual-offending behavior in male and female adolescents. Reducing exposure to non-contact sexual abuse (like Internet-based sexual exploitation) should become a new area of sexual violence prevention in youths.

  14. Daily life stress and the cortisol awakening response: testing the anticipation hypothesis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel J Powell

    Full Text Available The cortisol awakening response (CAR is a distinct facet of the circadian cortisol rhythm associated with various health conditions and risk factors. It has repeatedly been suggested that the CAR could be a result of the anticipated demands of the upcoming day (stress anticipation and could support coping with daily life stress. In a sample of 23 healthy participants CARs were assessed on two consecutive days by measures of salivary cortisol upon awakening (S1 and 30 and 45 minutes later, which were aggregated to the area under the curve increase (AUCI. Stress anticipation was assessed immediately after awakening. On the same days, daily life stress and distress were assessed six times per day based on a quasi-randomized design using handheld computers. Associations were tested by day using regression analysis and standard multilevel/mixed effects models for longitudinal data. The CAR AUCI moderated the effect of daily life stress on distress; higher CAR increases were associated with attenuated distress responses to daily life stress on both days (day 1: p = .039; day 2: p = .004 adjusted for age, gender, sleep quality, time of awakening and oral contraceptive use. Lagged-effects and redundancy models showed that this effect was not due to prior-day CAR increases but specific for same day CARs. On day 2, associations between daily life stress and distress were stronger when individuals showed a higher S1 cortisol level, but this effect was similar for S1 on day 1, and the day 2 effect of S1 became non-significant when S1 on day 1 was controlled. No associations were found between stress anticipation and CARs. Findings indicate that the CAR increase is associated with successful coping with same-day daily life stress.

  15. The Avalanche Hypothesis and Compression of Morbidity: Testing Assumptions through Cohort-Sequential Analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jordan Silberman

    Full Text Available The compression of morbidity model posits a breakpoint in the adult lifespan that separates an initial period of relative health from a subsequent period of ever increasing morbidity. Researchers often assume that such a breakpoint exists; however, this assumption is hitherto untested.To test the assumption that a breakpoint exists--which we term a morbidity tipping point--separating a period of relative health from a subsequent deterioration in health status. An analogous tipping point for healthcare costs was also investigated.Four years of adults' (N = 55,550 morbidity and costs data were retrospectively analyzed. Data were collected in Pittsburgh, PA between 2006 and 2009; analyses were performed in Rochester, NY and Ann Arbor, MI in 2012 and 2013. Cohort-sequential and hockey stick regression models were used to characterize long-term trajectories and tipping points, respectively, for both morbidity and costs.Morbidity increased exponentially with age (P<.001. A morbidity tipping point was observed at age 45.5 (95% CI, 41.3-49.7. An exponential trajectory was also observed for costs (P<.001, with a costs tipping point occurring at age 39.5 (95% CI, 32.4-46.6. Following their respective tipping points, both morbidity and costs increased substantially (Ps<.001.Findings support the existence of a morbidity tipping point, confirming an important but untested assumption. This tipping point, however, may occur earlier in the lifespan than is widely assumed. An "avalanche of morbidity" occurred after the morbidity tipping point-an ever increasing rate of morbidity progression. For costs, an analogous tipping point and "avalanche" were observed. The time point at which costs began to increase substantially occurred approximately 6 years before health status began to deteriorate.

  16. Aerobic capacity of Peruvian Quechua: a test of the developmental adaptation hypothesis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kiyamu, Melisa; Rivera-Chira, María; Brutsaert, Tom D

    2015-03-01

    High altitude natives are reported to have outstanding work capacity in spite of the challenge of oxygen transport and delivery in hypoxia. To evaluate the developmental effect of lifelong exposure to hypoxia on aerobic capacity, VO2peak was measured on two groups of Peruvian Quechua subjects (18-35 years), who differed in their developmental exposure to altitude. Male and female volunteers were recruited in Lima, Peru (150 m), and were divided in two groups, based on their developmental exposure to hypoxia, those: a) Born at sea-level individuals (BSL), with no developmental exposure to hypoxia (n = 34) and b) Born at high-altitude individuals (BHA) with full developmental exposure to hypoxia (n = 32), but who migrated to sea-level as adults (>16-years-old). Tests were conducted both in normoxia (BP = 750 mm Hg) and normobaric hypoxia at sea-level (BP = 750 mm Hg, FiO2  = 0.12, equivalent to 4,449 m), after a 2-month training period (in order to control for initial differences in physical fitness) at sea-level. BHA had a significantly higher VO2peak at hypoxia (40.31 ± 1.0 ml/min/kg) as compared to BSL (35.78 ± 0.96 ml/min/kg, P = 0.001), adjusting for sex. The decrease of VO2peak at HA relative to SL (ΔVO2peak ) was not different between groups, controlling for baseline levels (VO2peak at sea-level) and sex (BHA = 0.35 ± 0.04 l/min, BSL = 0.44 ± 0.04 l/min; P = 0.12). Forced vital capacity (controlling for height) and the residuals of VO2peak (controlling for weight) had a significant association in the BHA group only (r = 0.155; P = 0.031). In sum, results indicate that developmental exposure to altitude constitutes an important factor to determine superior exercise performance.

  17. Detection of Bistability in Phase Space of a Real Galaxy, using a New Non-parametric Bayesian Test of Hypothesis

    CERN Document Server

    Chakrabarty, Dalia

    2013-01-01

    In lieu of direct detection of dark matter, estimation of the distribution of the gravitational mass in distant galaxies is of crucial importance in Astrophysics. Typically, such estimation is performed using small samples of noisy, partially missing measurements - only some of the three components of the velocity and location vectors of individual particles that live in the galaxy are measurable. Such limitations of the available data in turn demands that simplifying model assumptions be undertaken. Thus, assuming that the phase space of a galaxy manifests simple symmetries - such as isotropy - allows for the learning of the density of the gravitational mass in galaxies. This is equivalent to assuming that the phase space $pdf$ from which the velocity and location vectors of galactic particles are sampled from, is an isotropic function of these vectors. We present a new non-parametric test of hypothesis that tests for relative support in two or more measured data sets of disparate sizes, for the undertaken m...

  18. Motivation in vigilance - A test of the goal-setting hypothesis of the effectiveness of knowledge of results.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Warm, J. S.; Riechmann, S. W.; Grasha, A. F.; Seibel, B.

    1973-01-01

    This study tested the prediction, derived from the goal-setting hypothesis, that the facilitating effects of knowledge of results (KR) in a simple vigilance task should be related directly to the level of the performance standard used to regulate KR. Two groups of Ss received dichotomous KR in terms of whether Ss response times (RTs) to signal detections exceeded a high or low standard of performance. The aperiodic offset of a visual signal was the critical event for detection. The vigil was divided into a training phase followed by testing, during which KR was withdrawn. Knowledge of results enhanced performance in both phases. However, the two standards used to regulate feedback contributed little to these effects.

  19. Long-term resource variation and group size: A large-sample field test of the Resource Dispersion Hypothesis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Morecroft Michael D

    2001-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The Resource Dispersion Hypothesis (RDH proposes a mechanism for the passive formation of social groups where resources are dispersed, even in the absence of any benefits of group living per se. Despite supportive modelling, it lacks empirical testing. The RDH predicts that, rather than Territory Size (TS increasing monotonically with Group Size (GS to account for increasing metabolic needs, TS is constrained by the dispersion of resource patches, whereas GS is independently limited by their richness. We conducted multiple-year tests of these predictions using data from the long-term study of badgers Meles meles in Wytham Woods, England. The study has long failed to identify direct benefits from group living and, consequently, alternative explanations for their large group sizes have been sought. Results TS was not consistently related to resource dispersion, nor was GS consistently related to resource richness. Results differed according to data groupings and whether territories were mapped using minimum convex polygons or traditional methods. Habitats differed significantly in resource availability, but there was also evidence that food resources may be spatially aggregated within habitat types as well as between them. Conclusions This is, we believe, the largest ever test of the RDH and builds on the long-term project that initiated part of the thinking behind the hypothesis. Support for predictions were mixed and depended on year and the method used to map territory borders. We suggest that within-habitat patchiness, as well as model assumptions, should be further investigated for improved tests of the RDH in the future.

  20. Biorhythms, deciduous enamel thickness, and primary bone growth: a test of the Havers-Halberg Oscillation hypothesis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mahoney, Patrick; Miszkiewicz, Justyna J; Pitfield, Rosie; Schlecht, Stephen H; Deter, Chris; Guatelli-Steinberg, Debbie

    2016-06-01

    Across mammalian species, the periodicity with which enamel layers form (Retzius periodicity) in permanent teeth corresponds with average body mass and the pace of life history. According to the Havers-Halberg Oscillation hypothesis (HHO), Retzius periodicity (RP) is a manifestation of a biorhythm that is also expressed in lamellar bone. Potentially, these links provide a basis for investigating aspects of a species' biology from fossilized teeth. Here, we tested intra-specific predictions of this hypothesis on skeletal samples of human juveniles. We measured daily enamel growth increments to calculate RP in deciduous molars (n = 25). Correlations were sought between RP, molar average and relative enamel thickness (AET, RET), and the average amount of primary bone growth (n = 7) in humeri of age-matched juveniles. Results show a previously undescribed relationship between RP and enamel thickness. Reduced major axis regression reveals RP is significantly and positively correlated with AET and RET, and scales isometrically. The direction of the correlation was opposite to HHO predictions as currently understood for human adults. Juveniles with higher RPs and thicker enamel had increased primary bone formation, which suggests a coordinating biorhythm. However, the direction of the correspondence was, again, opposite to predictions. Next, we compared RP from deciduous molars with new data for permanent molars, and with previously published values. The lowermost RP of 4 and 5 days in deciduous enamel extends below the lowermost RP of 6 days in permanent enamel. A lowered range of RP values in deciduous enamel implies that the underlying biorhythm might change with age. Our results develop the intra-specific HHO hypothesis. © 2016 Anatomical Society.

  1. Male takeovers are reproductively costly to females in hamadryas baboons: a test of the sexual coercion hypothesis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pablo Polo

    Full Text Available During male takeovers, in addition to fighting off the female's current mating partner, males may exhibit intense aggressive mate guarding of the newly acquired females. Recent studies indicate that coercive sexual aggression by males is an important strategy through which sexual conflict is expressed. Previous tests of the sexual coercion hypothesis in primates have focused on assessing if female mate choice is effectively reduced by male aggression, however, only one recent study has tested a critical prediction of this hypothesis, namely, that male coercion is reproductively costly to victim females. The present study uses 15 years of data on inter-birth intervals from a large multilevel colony of baboons, mostly Papio h. hamadryas, with a mating system based on harem-defence polygyny to examine if male takeovers impact the length of the abducted females' inter-birth intervals. Our analysis of 121 inter-birth intervals from 45 adult females indicates that male takeovers are reproductively costly to abducted females as they are associated with an increase in the time they take to conceive and a lengthening of the inter-birth intervals. We discuss how several factors may contribute to this reproductive cost, including male-female sexual conflict, male-male competition, and female-female competition. Our findings suggest that the male's aggressive herding is the main contributor to the abducted females' immediate reproductive cost. We argue that although some of the male's aggressive herding may be driven by male-male competition, nonetheless, it serves a coercive function as it both constrains the female's mate choice options and hampers her immediate breeding performance. This conclusion is backed up by results obtained in the only other study that has tested the same prediction and which has been carried out in a wild population of hamadryas baboons.

  2. Male takeovers are reproductively costly to females in hamadryas baboons: a test of the sexual coercion hypothesis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Polo, Pablo; Hernández-Lloreda, Victoria; Colmenares, Fernando

    2014-01-01

    During male takeovers, in addition to fighting off the female's current mating partner, males may exhibit intense aggressive mate guarding of the newly acquired females. Recent studies indicate that coercive sexual aggression by males is an important strategy through which sexual conflict is expressed. Previous tests of the sexual coercion hypothesis in primates have focused on assessing if female mate choice is effectively reduced by male aggression, however, only one recent study has tested a critical prediction of this hypothesis, namely, that male coercion is reproductively costly to victim females. The present study uses 15 years of data on inter-birth intervals from a large multilevel colony of baboons, mostly Papio h. hamadryas, with a mating system based on harem-defence polygyny to examine if male takeovers impact the length of the abducted females' inter-birth intervals. Our analysis of 121 inter-birth intervals from 45 adult females indicates that male takeovers are reproductively costly to abducted females as they are associated with an increase in the time they take to conceive and a lengthening of the inter-birth intervals. We discuss how several factors may contribute to this reproductive cost, including male-female sexual conflict, male-male competition, and female-female competition. Our findings suggest that the male's aggressive herding is the main contributor to the abducted females' immediate reproductive cost. We argue that although some of the male's aggressive herding may be driven by male-male competition, nonetheless, it serves a coercive function as it both constrains the female's mate choice options and hampers her immediate breeding performance. This conclusion is backed up by results obtained in the only other study that has tested the same prediction and which has been carried out in a wild population of hamadryas baboons.

  3. Test of the hypothesis; a lymphoma stem cells exist which is capable of self-renewal

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kjeldsen, Malene Krag

      Test of the hypothesis; a lymphoma stem cell exist which is capable of self-renewal   Malene Krag Pedersen, Karen Dybkaer, Hans E. Johnsen   The Research Laboratory, Department of Haematology, Aalborg Hospital, Århus University   Failure of current therapeutics in the treatment of diffuse large B...... and sustaining cells(1-3). My project is based on studies of stem and early progenitor cells in lymphoid cell lines from patients with advanced DLBCL. The cell lines are world wide recognised and generously provided by Dr. Hans Messner and colleagues.   Hypothesis and aims: A lymphoma stem and progenitor cell......RT-PCR.          (1)    Bonnet D. Normal and leukaemic stem cells. Br J Haematol 2005 Aug;130(4):469-79.        (2)    Huntly BJ, Gilliland DG. Leukaemia stem cells and the evolution of cancer-stem-cell research. Nat Rev Cancer 2005 Apr;5(4):311-21.        (3)    Reya T, Morrison SJ, Clarke MF, Weissman IL. Stem...

  4. South East Asia as a part of an Ordovician Gondwanaland—a palaeobiogeographic test of a tectonic hypothesis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burrett, Clive; Stait, Bryan

    1985-10-01

    The hypothesis that Thailand and Malaysia (the Sibumasu block) were adjacent to Australia in the Early Palaeozoic has been tested by an examination of the Ordovician sequences and faunas of Sibumasu and Australia. The relatively stenogeographic nautiloids of the two areas are remarkably similar and have a Simpson Index of 0.92 at the generic level. Two new genera of discosorids are restricted to the two blocks and Georgina and Mesaktoceras are found elsewhere only in Tibet. Very close affinities are also evident between the gastropod, polyplacophoran and rostroconch molluscs. The Ordovician brachiopod faunas are also very close including the genus Spanodonta. Other very close similarities are found between the Upper Cambrian trilobite faunas and the Ordovician conodonts and stromatoporoids. No Ordovician faunas younger than Upper Whiterockian were found during this study in either northern Australia or Sibumasu and a stratigraphic gap probably exists from the Upper Whiterockian to the Upper Ordovician over most of the two blocks. These remarkably close faunal similarities are good evidence in favour of the hypothesis that Sibumasu was adjacent to Australia during the Early Palaeozoic. Similarly close faunal relationships between North China, South East Asia, Tibet and Australia may also suggest close proximity of those blocks during the Early Palaeozoic.

  5. BRO beta-lactamase alleles, antibiotic resistance and a test of the BRO-1 selective replacement hypothesis in Moraxella catarrhalis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levy, F; Walker, E S

    2004-02-01

    The hypothesis that BRO-1 selectively replaced the BRO-2 isoform of the Moraxella catarrhalis BRO beta-lactamase was tested by examining the temporal distribution, antibiotic resistance and epidemiological characteristics of isolates from a long-term collection at a single locale. A rapid, one-step PCR assay conducted on 354 isolates spanning 1984-1994 distinguished bro alleles in over 97% of the beta-lactamase-producing isolates. Probes of dot blots were used to distinguish PCR failure from non-beta-lactamase-mediated penicillin resistance. BRO-2 isolates comprised 0-10% of the population per year with no evidence of a decline over time. All beta-lactamase producers exceeded the clinical threshold for penicillin resistance. Bimodality of penicillin MICs for beta-lactamase producers was caused by variation within BRO-1 rather than differences between BRO-1 and BRO-2. Non-beta-lactamase factors also confer resistance to penicillin and may contribute to the BRO-1 bimodality. The 13 BRO-2 isolates were associated with diverse genotypes within which there was evidence of epidemiologically linked clusters. The exclusive association of BRO-2 with four unrelated genotypes suggested maintenance of BRO-2 by recurrent mutation or horizontal exchange. The relative rarity of BRO-2 throughout the study, the absence of a declining temporal trend, and genetic diversity within BRO-2 all failed to support the hypothesis that BRO-2 was more common in the past and has been selectively replaced by BRO-1.

  6. Optimal Bayesian Adaptive Design for Test-Item Calibration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Linden, Wim J; Ren, Hao

    2015-06-01

    An optimal adaptive design for test-item calibration based on Bayesian optimality criteria is presented. The design adapts the choice of field-test items to the examinees taking an operational adaptive test using both the information in the posterior distributions of their ability parameters and the current posterior distributions of the field-test parameters. Different criteria of optimality based on the two types of posterior distributions are possible. The design can be implemented using an MCMC scheme with alternating stages of sampling from the posterior distributions of the test takers' ability parameters and the parameters of the field-test items while reusing samples from earlier posterior distributions of the other parameters. Results from a simulation study demonstrated the feasibility of the proposed MCMC implementation for operational item calibration. A comparison of performances for different optimality criteria showed faster calibration of substantial numbers of items for the criterion of D-optimality relative to A-optimality, a special case of c-optimality, and random assignment of items to the test takers.

  7. Comparing a Real-Life WSN Platform Small Network and its OPNET Modeler Model using Hypothesis Testing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gilbert E. Pérez

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available To avoid the high cost and arduous effort usually associated with field analysis of Wireless Sensor Network (WSN, Modeling and Simulation (M&S is used to predict the behavior and performance of the network. However, the simulation models utilized to imitate real life networks are often used for general purpose. Therefore, they are less likely to provide accurate predictions for different real life networks. In this paper, a comparison methodology based on hypothesis testing is proposed to evaluate and compare simulation output versus real-life network measurements. Performance related parameters such as traffic generation rates and goodput rates for a small WSN are considered. To execute the comparison methodology, a "Comparison Tool", composed of MATLAB scripts is developed and used. The comparison tool demonstrates the need for model verification and the analysis of good agreements between the simulation and empirical measurements.

  8. Testing Cermak's hypothesis: is dissociation the mediating variable that links substance abuse in the family of origin with offspring codependency?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harkness, D

    2001-01-01

    This is a pilot study of substance abuse in the family of origin and its relation to offspring dissociation and offspring codependency. Cermak contends that substance abuse in the family of origin exposes offspring to trauma, that exposure to trauma in the family of origin engenders offspring dissociation, and that dissociation is the process underlying offspring codependency. Assuming that substance abuse in the family of origin exposes offspring to trauma, this experiment tested the hypothesis that dissociation mediates the relationship between substance abuse in the family of origin and offspring codependency. Although it was found that substance abuse in the family of origin, offspring dissociation, and offspring codependency were associated, no support was found for the prediction that dissociation mediates the relationship between substance abuse in the family of origin and offspring codependency. Replications are called for.

  9. Testing the Hydrogen Peroxide-Water Hypothesis for Life on Mars with the TEGA instrument on the Phoenix Lander

    CERN Document Server

    Schulze-Makuch, Dirk; Houtkooper, Joop; McKay, Chris

    2007-01-01

    Since Viking has conducted its life detection experiments on Mars, many missions have enhanced our knowledge about the environmental conditions on the Red Planet. However, the Martian surface chemistry and the Viking lander results remain puzzling. Non-biological explanations that favor a strong inorganic oxidant are currently favored (e.g., Mancinelli, 1989; Quinn and Zent, 1999; Klein, 1999, Yen et al., 2000), but problems remain regarding the life time, source, and abundance of that oxidant to account for the Viking observations (Zent and McKay, 1994). Alternatively, a hypothesis favoring the biological origin of a strong oxidizer has recently been advanced (Houtkooper and Schulze-Makuch, 2007). Here, we report about laboratory experiments that simulate the experiments to be conducted by the Thermal and Evolved Gas Analyzer (TEGA) instrument of the Phoenix lander, which is to descend on Mars in May 2008. Our experiments provide a baseline for an unbiased test for chemical versus biological responses, which...

  10. Cost Optimizations in Runtime Testing and Diagnosis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gonzalez Sanchez, A.

    2011-01-01

    Software testing and diagnosis (debugging) is a time-consuming but rather important task for improving software reliability. It is therefore necessary to devise an appropriate verification strategy that not only achieves this reliability goal, but also does this at a minimum cost. Since exhaustive

  11. Cost Optimizations in Runtime Testing and Diagnosis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gonzalez Sanchez, A.

    2011-01-01

    Software testing and diagnosis (debugging) is a time-consuming but rather important task for improving software reliability. It is therefore necessary to devise an appropriate verification strategy that not only achieves this reliability goal, but also does this at a minimum cost. Since exhaustive

  12. Testing the ``Wildfire Hypothesis:'' Terrestrial Organic Carbon Burning as the Cause of the Paleocene-Eocene Boundary Carbon Isotope Excursion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, E. A.; Kurtz, A. C.

    2005-12-01

    The 3‰ negative carbon isotope excursion (CIE) at the Paleocene-Eocene boundary has generally been attributed to dissociation of seafloor methane hydrates. We are testing the alternative hypothesis that the carbon cycle perturbation resulted from wildfires affecting the extensive peatlands and coal swamps formed in the Paleocene. Accounting for the CIE with terrestrial organic carbon rather than methane requires a significantly larger net release of fossil carbon to the ocean-atmosphere, which may be more consistent with the extreme global warming and ocean acidification characteristic of the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM). While other researchers have noted evidence of fires at the Paleocene-Eocene boundary in individual locations, the research presented here is designed to test the "wildfire hypothesis" for the Paleocene-Eocene boundary by examining marine sediments for evidence of a global increase in wildfire activity. Such fires would produce massive amounts of soot, widely distributed by wind and well preserved in marine sediments as refractory black carbon. We expect that global wildfires occurring at the Paleocene-Eocene boundary would produce a peak in black carbon abundance at the PETM horizon. We are using the method of Gelinas et al. (2001) to produce high-resolution concentration profiles of black carbon across the Paleocene-Eocene boundary using seafloor sediments from ODP cores, beginning with the Bass River core from ODP leg 174AX and site 1209 from ODP leg 198. This method involves the chemical and thermal extraction of non-refractory carbon followed by combustion of the residual black carbon and measurement as CO2. Measurement of the δ 13C of the black carbon will put additional constraints on the source of the organic material combusted, and will allow us to determine if this organic material was formed prior to or during the CIE.

  13. Comparison of population-genetic structuring in congeneric kelp- versus rock-associated snails: a test of a dispersal-by-rafting hypothesis

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Nikula, Raisa; Spencer, Hamish G; Waters, Jonathan M

    2011-01-01

    .... We tested this hypothesis by comparing nuclear multilocus population-genetic structuring in two sister topshell species, which both have a planktonic larval phase but are fairly well segregated...

  14. Combining Multiple Hypothesis Testing with Machine Learning Increases the Statistical Power of Genome-wide Association Studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mieth, Bettina; Kloft, Marius; Rodríguez, Juan Antonio; Sonnenburg, Sören; Vobruba, Robin; Morcillo-Suárez, Carlos; Farré, Xavier; Marigorta, Urko M.; Fehr, Ernst; Dickhaus, Thorsten; Blanchard, Gilles; Schunk, Daniel; Navarro, Arcadi; Müller, Klaus-Robert

    2016-11-01

    The standard approach to the analysis of genome-wide association studies (GWAS) is based on testing each position in the genome individually for statistical significance of its association with the phenotype under investigation. To improve the analysis of GWAS, we propose a combination of machine learning and statistical testing that takes correlation structures within the set of SNPs under investigation in a mathematically well-controlled manner into account. The novel two-step algorithm, COMBI, first trains a support vector machine to determine a subset of candidate SNPs and then performs hypothesis tests for these SNPs together with an adequate threshold correction. Applying COMBI to data from a WTCCC study (2007) and measuring performance as replication by independent GWAS published within the 2008-2015 period, we show that our method outperforms ordinary raw p-value thresholding as well as other state-of-the-art methods. COMBI presents higher power and precision than the examined alternatives while yielding fewer false (i.e. non-replicated) and more true (i.e. replicated) discoveries when its results are validated on later GWAS studies. More than 80% of the discoveries made by COMBI upon WTCCC data have been validated by independent studies. Implementations of the COMBI method are available as a part of the GWASpi toolbox 2.0.

  15. Eddy current testing probe optimization using a parallel genetic algorithm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dolapchiev Ivaylo

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper uses the developed parallel version of Michalewicz's Genocop III Genetic Algorithm (GA searching technique to optimize the coil geometry of an eddy current non-destructive testing probe (ECTP. The electromagnetic field is computed using FEMM 2D finite element code. The aim of this optimization was to determine coil dimensions and positions that improve ECTP sensitivity to physical properties of the tested devices.

  16. PSO Based Optimization of Testing and Maintenance Cost in NPPs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qiang Chou

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Testing and maintenance activities of safety equipment have drawn much attention in Nuclear Power Plant (NPP to risk and cost control. The testing and maintenance activities are often implemented in compliance with the technical specification and maintenance requirements. Technical specification and maintenance-related parameters, that is, allowed outage time (AOT, maintenance period and duration, and so forth, in NPP are associated with controlling risk level and operating cost which need to be minimized. The above problems can be formulated by a constrained multiobjective optimization model, which is widely used in many other engineering problems. Particle swarm optimizations (PSOs have proved their capability to solve these kinds of problems. In this paper, we adopt PSO as an optimizer to optimize the multiobjective optimization problem by iteratively trying to improve a candidate solution with regard to a given measure of quality. Numerical results have demonstrated the efficiency of our proposed algorithm.

  17. Computer simulation tests of optimized neutron powder diffractometer configurations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cussen, L.D., E-mail: Leo@CussenConsulting.com [Cussen Consulting, 23 Burgundy Drive, Doncaster 3108 (Australia); Lieutenant, K., E-mail: Klaus.Lieutenant@helmholtz-berlin.de [Helmholtz Zentrum Berlin, Hahn-Meitner Platz 1, 14109 Berlin (Germany)

    2016-06-21

    Recent work has developed a new mathematical approach to optimally choose beam elements for constant wavelength neutron powder diffractometers. This article compares Monte Carlo computer simulations of existing instruments with simulations of instruments using configurations chosen using the new approach. The simulations show that large performance improvements over current best practice are possible. The tests here are limited to instruments optimized for samples with a cubic structure which differs from the optimization for triclinic structure samples. A novel primary spectrometer design is discussed and simulation tests show that it performs as expected and allows a single instrument to operate flexibly over a wide range of measurement resolution.

  18. Why does Rhinopithecus bieti prefer the highest elevation range in winter? A test of the sunshine hypothesis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rui-Chang Quan

    Full Text Available Environmental factors that affect spatiotemporal distribution patterns of animals usually include resource availability, temperature, and the risk of predation. However, they do not explain the counterintuitive preference of high elevation range in winter by the black-and-white snub-nosed monkey (Rhinopithecus bieti. We asked whether variation of sunshine along with elevations is the key driving force. To test this hypothesis, we conducted field surveys to demonstrate that there was a statistically significant pattern of high elevation use during winter. We then asked whether this pattern can be explained by certain environmental factors, namely temperature, sunshine duration and solar radiation. Finally, we concluded with a possible ecological mechanism for this pattern. In this study, we employed GIS technology to quantify solar radiation and sunshine duration across the monkey's range. Our results showed that: 1 R. bieti used the high altitude range between 4100-4400 m in winter although the yearly home range spanned from 3500-4500 m; 2 both solar radiation and sunshine duration increased with elevation while temperature decreased with elevation; 3 within the winter range, the use of range was significantly correlated with solar radiation and sunshine duration; 4 monkeys moved to the areas with high solar radiation and duration following a snowfall, where the snow melts faster and food is exposed earlier. We concluded that sunshine was the main factor that influences selection of high elevation habitat for R. bieti in winter. Since some other endotherms in the area exhibit similar winter distributional patterns, we developed a sunshine hypothesis to explain this phenomenon. In addition, our work also represented a new method of integrating GIS models into traditional field ecology research to study spatiotemporal distribution pattern of wildlife. We suggest that further theoretical and empirical studies are necessary for better understanding

  19. Season of birth in siblings of patients with seasonal affective disorder. A test of the parental conception habits hypothesis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pjrek, Edda; Winkler, Dietmar; Praschak-Rieder, Nicole; Willeit, Matthäus; Stastny, Jürgen; Konstantinidis, Anastasios; Kasper, Siegfried

    2007-10-01

    Recently we have published a report on seasonally varying birth rates in 553 patients with seasonal affective disorder (SAD). The present study is aimed to test the hypothesis of an idiosyncratic seasonal conception pattern of the parents of these patients to explain this phenomenon. We conducted a telephone interview with the patients to obtain information on the birth data of their siblings. Using the method of chart review to acquire information on the family history of our patients, we excluded those siblings with psychiatric disorders. We first compared the birth months and the quarters of birth of 435 healthy siblings with the general population. Secondly, we compared the birth distribution of the index SAD patients with that of their siblings. There was a significant deviation between the birth distribution of the siblings and the general population calculated on a monthly basis (p = 0.044). When comparing quarters we found less births than expected in the first (-14.1%) and fourth quarter of the year (-15.1%) and an excess of births in the second (+7.7%) and third quarter (+21.1%; p = 0.018). There were no significant differences between the group of SAD patients and their siblings regarding their birth patterns as calculated by months (p = 0.848) or quarters (p = 0.320). Our study provides support for the hypothesis of specific parental conception habits underlying the birth seasonality in SAD. Further research could be conducted in non-seasonal depression as there is still a lack of studies on seasonality of birth in affective disorders.

  20. CO2 emissions, real output, energy consumption, trade, urbanization and financial development: testing the EKC hypothesis for the USA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dogan, Eyup; Turkekul, Berna

    2016-01-01

    This study aims to investigate the relationship between carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, energy consumption, real output (GDP), the square of real output (GDP(2)), trade openness, urbanization, and financial development in the USA for the period 1960-2010. The bounds testing for cointegration indicates that the analyzed variables are cointegrated. In the long run, energy consumption and urbanization increase environmental degradation while financial development has no effect on it, and trade leads to environmental improvements. In addition, this study does not support the validity of the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis for the USA because real output leads to environmental improvements while GDP(2) increases the levels of gas emissions. The results from the Granger causality test show that there is bidirectional causality between CO2 and GDP, CO2 and energy consumption, CO2 and urbanization, GDP and urbanization, and GDP and trade openness while no causality is determined between CO2 and trade openness, and gas emissions and financial development. In addition, we have enough evidence to support one-way causality running from GDP to energy consumption, from financial development to output, and from urbanization to financial development. In light of the long-run estimates and the Granger causality analysis, the US government should take into account the importance of trade openness, urbanization, and financial development in controlling for the levels of GDP and pollution. Moreover, it should be noted that the development of efficient energy policies likely contributes to lower CO2 emissions without harming real output.

  1. A Class of Asymptotically Optimal Sequential Tests for Composite Hypotheses’

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    陈家鼎; FredJ.Hickernell

    1994-01-01

    Suppose that X has density f(x,θ)=exp(θx-ψ(θ)} (with respect to some measure v),where θ∈(θ,θ),∞≤θ≤+∞.Consider the problem of testing the hypothesis θ≤θ0 against θ≥θ1 for some given θ0 and θ1 (θ<θ0<θ1<θ).A class of truncated sequential tests is introduced with type Ⅰ and type Ⅱ error probabilities not exceeding a and β,respectively.The expected sample sizes of these tests are shown to be asymptotically minimal for all θ as α+β↓0

  2. OptimalCutpoints: An R Package for Selecting Optimal Cutpoints in Diagnostic Tests

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mónica López-Ratón

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Continuous diagnostic tests are often used for discriminating between healthy and diseased populations. For the clinical application of such tests, it is useful to select a cutpoint or discrimination value c that defines positive and negative test results. In general, individuals with a diagnostic test value of c or higher are classified as diseased. Several search strategies have been proposed for choosing optimal cutpoints in diagnostic tests, depending on the underlying reason for this choice. This paper introduces an R package, known as OptimalCutpoints, for selecting optimal cutpoints in diagnostic tests. It incorporates criteria that take the costs of the different diagnostic decisions into account, as well as the prevalence of the target disease and several methods based on measures of diagnostic test accuracy. Moreover, it enables optimal levels to be calculated according to levels of given (categorical covariates. While the numerical output includes the optimal cutpoint values and associated accuracy measures with their confidence intervals, the graphical output includes the receiver operating characteristic (ROC and predictive ROC curves. An illustration of the use of OptimalCutpoints is provided, using a real biomedical dataset.

  3. Glucocorticoid excess and the developmental origins of disease: two decades of testing the hypothesis--2012 Curt Richter Award Winner.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reynolds, Rebecca M

    2013-01-01

    Low birthweight, a marker of an adverse in utero environment, is associated with cardiometabolic disease and brain disorders in adulthood. The adaptive changes made by the fetus in response to the intra-uterine environment result in permanent changes in physiology, structure and metabolism, a phenomenon termed early life programming. One of the key hypotheses to explain programming, namely over exposure of the developing fetus to glucocorticoids, was proposed nearly two decades ago, following the observation that the fetus was protected from high glucocorticoid levels in the mother by the actions of the placental barrier enzyme, 11β-hydroxysteroid dehydrogenase, which converts active glucocorticoids into inactive products. Numerous mechanistic studies in animal models have been carried out to test this hypothesis using manipulations to increase maternal glucocorticoids. Overall, these have resulted in offspring of lower birthweight, with an activated hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) axis and an adverse metabolic profile and behavioural phenotype in adulthood. Altered glucocorticoid activity or action is a good candidate mechanism in humans to link low birthweight with cardiometabolic and brain disorders. We have carried out detailed studies in men and women showing that high levels of endogenous glucocorticoids, or treatment with exogenous glucocorticoids, is associated with an adverse metabolic profile, increased cardiovascular disease and altered mood and cognitive decline. Our laboratory carried out the first translational studies in humans to test the glucocorticoid hypothesis, firstly demonstrating in studies of adult men and women, that low birthweight was associated with high fasting cortisol levels. We went on to dissect the mechanisms underlying the high fasting cortisol, demonstrating activation of the HPA axis, with increased cortisol responses to stimulation with exogenous adrenocorticotrophin hormone, lack of habituation to the stress of

  4. Testing the shape-similarity hypothesis between particle-size distribution and water retention for Sicilian soils

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chiara Antinoro

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Application of the Arya and Paris (AP model to estimate the soil water retention curve requires a detailed description of the particlesize distribution (PSD but limited experimental PSD data are generally determined by the conventional sieve-hydrometer (SH method. Detailed PSDs can be obtained by fitting a continuous model to SH data or performing measurements by the laser diffraction (LD method. The AP model was applied to 40 Sicilian soils for which the PSD was measured by both the SH and LD methods. The scale factor was set equal to 1.38 (procedure AP1 or estimated by a logistical model with parameters gathered from literature (procedure AP2. For both SH and LD data, procedure AP2 allowed a more accurate prediction of the water retention than procedure AP1, confirming that it is not convenient to use a unique value of  for soils that are very different in texture. Despite the differences in PSDs obtained by the SH and LD methods, the water retention predicted by a given procedure (AP1 or AP2 using SH or LD data was characterized by the same level of accuracy. Discrepancies in the estimated water retention from the two PSD measurement methods were attributed to underestimation of the finest diameter frequency obtained by the LD method. Analysis also showed that the soil water retention estimated using the SH method was affected by an estimation bias that could be corrected by an optimization procedure (OPT. Comparison of a-distributions and water retention shape indices obtained by the two methods (SH or LD indicated that the shape-similarity hypothesis is better verified if the traditional sieve-hydrometer data are used to apply the AP model. The optimization procedure allowed more accurate predictions of the water retention curves than the traditional AP1 and AP2 procedures. Therefore, OPT can be considered a valid alternative to the more complex logistical model for estimating the water retention curve of Sicilian soils.

  5. Using a Simple Binomial Model to Assess Improvement in Predictive Capability: Sequential Bayesian Inference, Hypothesis Testing, and Power Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sigeti, David E. [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Pelak, Robert A. [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2012-09-11

    We present a Bayesian statistical methodology for identifying improvement in predictive simulations, including an analysis of the number of (presumably expensive) simulations that will need to be made in order to establish with a given level of confidence that an improvement has been observed. Our analysis assumes the ability to predict (or postdict) the same experiments with legacy and new simulation codes and uses a simple binomial model for the probability, {theta}, that, in an experiment chosen at random, the new code will provide a better prediction than the old. This model makes it possible to do statistical analysis with an absolute minimum of assumptions about the statistics of the quantities involved, at the price of discarding some potentially important information in the data. In particular, the analysis depends only on whether or not the new code predicts better than the old in any given experiment, and not on the magnitude of the improvement. We show how the posterior distribution for {theta} may be used, in a kind of Bayesian hypothesis testing, both to decide if an improvement has been observed and to quantify our confidence in that decision. We quantify the predictive probability that should be assigned, prior to taking any data, to the possibility of achieving a given level of confidence, as a function of sample size. We show how this predictive probability depends on the true value of {theta} and, in particular, how there will always be a region around {theta} = 1/2 where it is highly improbable that we will be able to identify an improvement in predictive capability, although the width of this region will shrink to zero as the sample size goes to infinity. We show how the posterior standard deviation may be used, as a kind of 'plan B metric' in the case that the analysis shows that {theta} is close to 1/2 and argue that such a plan B should generally be part of hypothesis testing. All the analysis presented in the paper is done with a

  6. In vitro iron enrichment experiments in the Prydz Bay, the Southern Ocean: A test of the iron hypothesis

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2009-01-01

    In "high nitrate, low chlorophyll" (HNLC) ocean regions, iron has been typically regarded as the limiting factor for phytoplankton production. This "iron hypothesis" needs to be tested in various oceanic environments to understand the role of iron in marine biological and biogeochemical processes. In this paper, three in vitro iron enrichment experiments were performed in Prydz Bay and at the Polar Front north of the Ross Sea, to study the role of iron on phytoplankton production. At the Polar Front of Ross Sea, iron addition significantly (P<0.05, Student’s t-test) stimulated phytoplankton growth. In Prydz Bay, however, both the iron treatments and the controls showed rapid phytoplankton growth, and no significant effect (P>0.05, Student’s t-test) as a consequence of iron addition was observed. These results confirmed the limiting role of iron in the Ross Sea and indicated that iron was not the primary factor limiting phytoplankton growth in Prydz Bay. Because the light environment for phytoplankton was enhanced in experimental bottles, light was assumed to be responsible for the rapid growth of phytoplankton in all treatments and to be the limiting factor controlling field phytoplankton growth in Prydz Bay. During the incubation experiments, nutrient consumption ratios also changed with the physiological status and the growth phases of phytoplankton cells. When phytoplankton growth was stimulated by iron addition, N was the first and Si was the last nutrient which absorption enhanced. The Si/N and Si/P consumption ratios of phytoplankton in the stationary and decay phases were significantly higher than those of rapidly growing phytoplankton. These findings were helpful for studies of the ma- rine ecosystem and biogeochemistry in Prydz Bay, and were also valuable for biogeochemical studies of carbon and nutrients in various marine environments.

  7. On the Optimization of the Quality of Language Tests

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    张艳梅

    2008-01-01

    <正>Language tests are frequently used as devices to evaluate language learning and teaching; therefore,we must be concerned about the quality—reliability and validity—of our tests.Many researches have showed that the quality of language tests has been decreased owing to the misuse of multiple-choice items.It is necessary to reduce the percentage of objective items in the tests,but what is more important is test writers’ professional skills which can directly affect the quality of the tests. This essay focuses on how to optimize the quality of language tests through the training for test writers. It has become quite urgent and important now,which should involve in familiarizing the writers with basic testing theories,purposes and types of testing,and main specific testing methods.

  8. Optimization Algorithms Testing and Convergence by Using a Stacked Histogram

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ZAPLATILEK, K.

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available The article describes an original method of optimization algorithms testing and convergence. The method is based on so-called stacked histogram. Stacked histogram is a histogram with its features marked by a chosen colour scheme. Thus, the histogram maintains the information on the input digital sequence. This approach enables an easy identification of the hidden defects in the random process statistical distribution. The stacked histogram is used for the testing of the convergent quality of various optimization techniques. Its width, position and colour scheme provides enough information on the chosen algorithm optimization trajectory. Both the classic iteration techniques and the stochastic optimization algorithm with the adaptation were used as examples.

  9. Predictors of young adults' representations of and behavior in their current romantic relationship: prospective tests of the prototype hypothesis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roisman, Glenn I; Collins, W Andrew; Sroufe, L Alan; Egeland, Byron

    2005-06-01

    Although attachment theory suggests that childhood experiences with caregivers serve as a prototype for adult love relationships, few explicit tests of this hypothesis exist in the literature. Drawing on data from a longitudinal cohort followed from birth to young adulthood, this paper examined correlates and antecedents of young adults' representations of and behavior in their current romantic relationship. Young adults who experienced a secure relationship with their primary caregiver in infancy as assessed in the Strange Situation were more likely to (a) produce coherent discourse regarding their current romantic partnership in the context of the Current Relationship Interview (CRI) and (b) have a higher quality romantic relationship as observed in standard conflict and collaboration tasks. Infant security accounted for variation in CRI security above and beyond the observed quality of participants' current romantic relationship. In contrast, the association between infant and romantic security was partially mediated by individuals' self-reports about their romantic experiences, suggesting that one plausible mechanism by which early experiences with caregivers shape young adults' representations of their attachments with romantic partners is through adults' expectations for and perceptions of love relationships.

  10. Influence of prey dispersion on territory and group size of African lions: a test of the resource dispersion hypothesis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valeix, Marion; Loveridge, Andrew J; MacDonald, David W

    2012-11-01

    Empirical tests of the resource dispersion hypothesis (RDH), a theory to explain group living based on resource heterogeneity, have been complicated by the fact that resource patch dispersion and richness have proved difficult to define and measure in natural systems. Here, we studied the ecology of African lions Panthera leo in Hwange National Park, Zimbabwe, where waterholes are prey hotspots, and where dispersion of water sources and abundance of prey at these water sources are quantifiable. We combined a 10-year data set from GPS-collared lions for which information of group composition was available concurrently with data for herbivore abundance at waterholes. The distance between two neighboring waterholes was a strong determinant of lion home range size, which provides strong support for the RDH prediction that territory size increases as resource patches are more dispersed in the landscape. The mean number of herbivore herds using a waterhole, a good proxy of patch richness, determined the maximum lion group biomass an area can support. This finding suggests that patch richness sets a maximum ceiling on lion group size. This study demonstrates that landscape ecology is a major driver of ranging behavior and suggests that aspects of resource dispersion limit group sizes.

  11. Testing the dark matter subhalo hypothesis of the gamma-ray source 3FGL J2212.5+0703

    CERN Document Server

    Wang, Yuan-Peng; Ma, Peng-Xiong; Liang, Yun-Feng; Shen, Zhao-Qiang; Li, Shang; Yue, Chuan; Yuan, Qiang; Zang, Jing-Jing; Fan, Yi-Zhong; Chang, Jin

    2016-01-01

    N-body simulations predict that galaxies at the Milky Way scale host a large number of dark matter (DM) subhalos. Some of these subhalos, if they are massive enough or close enough to the Earth, might be detectable in $\\gamma$ rays due to the DM annihilation. 3FGL J2212.5+0703, an unidentified gamma-ray source, has been suggested to be the counterpart candidate of a DM subhalo by Bertoni et al. (2015, 2016). In this work we analyze the Fermi-LAT Pass 8 data of 3FGL J2212.5+0703 to independently test the DM subhalo hypothesis of this source. In order to suppress the possible contamination from two nearby very-bright blazars, we just take into account the front-converting gamma-rays which have better angular resolutions than that of the back-converting photons. In addition to the spatial distribution analysis, we have extended the spectrum analysis down to the energies of $\\sim 100$ MeV, and thoroughly examined the variability of the emission during the past 8 years. We confirm that 3FGL J2212.5+0703 is a stead...

  12. Coordination of stem and leaf hydraulic conductance in southern California shrubs: a test of the hydraulic segmentation hypothesis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pivovaroff, Alexandria L; Sack, Lawren; Santiago, Louis S

    2014-08-01

    Coordination of water movement among plant organs is important for understanding plant water use strategies. The hydraulic segmentation hypothesis (HSH) proposes that hydraulic conductance in shorter lived, 'expendable' organs such as leaves and longer lived, more 'expensive' organs such as stems may be decoupled, with resistance in leaves acting as a bottleneck or 'safety valve'. We tested the HSH in woody species from a Mediterranean-type ecosystem by measuring leaf hydraulic conductance (Kleaf) and stem hydraulic conductivity (KS). We also investigated whether leaves function as safety valves by relating Kleaf and the hydraulic safety margin (stem water potential minus the water potential at which 50% of conductivity is lost (Ψstem-Ψ50)). We also examined related plant traits including the operating range of water potentials, wood density, leaf mass per area, and leaf area to sapwood area ratio to provide insight into whole-plant water use strategies. For hydrated shoots, Kleaf was negatively correlated with KS , supporting the HSH. Additionally, Kleaf was positively correlated with the hydraulic safety margin and negatively correlated with the leaf area to sapwood area ratio. Consistent with the HSH, our data indicate that leaves may act as control valves for species with high KS , or a low safety margin. This critical role of leaves appears to contribute importantly to plant ecological specialization in a drought-prone environment.

  13. Second-order asymptotics for quantum hypothesis testing in settings beyond i.i.d. - quantum lattice systems and more

    Science.gov (United States)

    Datta, Nilanjana; Pautrat, Yan; Rouzé, Cambyse

    2016-06-01

    Quantum Stein's lemma is a cornerstone of quantum statistics and concerns the problem of correctly identifying a quantum state, given the knowledge that it is one of two specific states (ρ or σ). It was originally derived in the asymptotic i.i.d. setting, in which arbitrarily many (say, n) identical copies of the state (ρ⊗n or σ⊗n) are considered to be available. In this setting, the lemma states that, for any given upper bound on the probability αn of erroneously inferring the state to be σ, the probability βn of erroneously inferring the state to be ρ decays exponentially in n, with the rate of decay converging to the relative entropy of the two states. The second order asymptotics for quantum hypothesis testing, which establishes the speed of convergence of this rate of decay to its limiting value, was derived in the i.i.d. setting independently by Tomamichel and Hayashi, and Li. We extend this result to settings beyond i.i.d. Examples of these include Gibbs states of quantum spin systems (with finite-range, translation-invariant interactions) at high temperatures, and quasi-free states of fermionic lattice gases.

  14. Optimization applications in aircraft engine design and test

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pratt, T. K.

    1984-01-01

    Starting with the NASA-sponsored STAEBL program, optimization methods based primarily upon the versatile program COPES/CONMIN were introduced over the past few years to a broad spectrum of engineering problems in structural optimization, engine design, engine test, and more recently, manufacturing processes. By automating design and testing processes, many repetitive and costly trade-off studies have been replaced by optimization procedures. Rather than taking engineers and designers out of the loop, optimization has, in fact, put them more in control by providing sophisticated search techniques. The ultimate decision whether to accept or reject an optimal feasible design still rests with the analyst. Feedback obtained from this decision process has been invaluable since it can be incorporated into the optimization procedure to make it more intelligent. On several occasions, optimization procedures have produced novel designs, such as the nonsymmetric placement of rotor case stiffener rings, not anticipated by engineering designers. In another case, a particularly difficult resonance contraint could not be satisfied using hand iterations for a compressor blade, when the STAEBL program was applied to the problem, a feasible solution was obtained in just two iterations.

  15. Test the Ocean Acidification Hypothesis during the End-Permian Mass Extinction Using an Earth System Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cui, Y.; Kump, L.; Ridgwell, A. J.; Meyer, K. M.

    2012-12-01

    The end-Permian is associated with a 3-5‰ carbon isotope excursion in the ocean-atmosphere system within 20 kyr, which could be explained by a rapid and large amount of greenhouse gas emission. This leads to the hypothesis of ocean acidification as a primary driver for the end-Permian mass extinction event. In order to test this hypothesis, we conducted a series of experiments varying initial and boundary conditions using an Earth system model of intermediate complexity (GENIE: http://www.genie.ac.uk/). The late Permian ocean has been proposed as a "Neritan" ocean due to lack of pelagic carbonate production. We test the ocean buffering capacity to rapid CO2 emission by turning on the pelagic carbonate factory to result in a "Cretan" ocean similar to today. Due to the uncertainties on reconstructed paleo-pCO2 records, we test the model sensitivity by varying the initial pCO2, ranging from 1× PAL (preindustrial atmospheric level), 5× PAL, 10× PAL to 20× PAL. Ocean saturation state with respect to calcite (aragonite) in the Late Permian is also a key uncertainty, estimates have been varying from Ωcalcite =2.5 to supersaturated state (Ωcalcite =10) (Ridgwell 2005; Montenegro et al. 2011). We test this key uncertainty in both the "Neritan" and "Cretan" ocean cases. GENIE was spun up for >200 kyr to allow sedimentary equilibrium to ensure the weathering input balance the sediment output. Temperature-dependent silicate weathering feedback is also turned on in the model as a driver of the long-term draw down of atmospheric pCO2. We then invert the model by forcing the atmosphere δ13C to track our prescribed carbon isotopes derived from Meishan section in South China and Gartnerkofel-1 core in Alps, Austria at each time step. The two carbon isotope records are statistically treated to remove the noise that could result in unrealistic fluctuations in the derivatives of δ13C. Due to the uncertainties in the age model applied on these two records and different

  16. Event rate and reaction time performance in ADHD: Testing predictions from the state regulation deficit hypothesis using an ex-Gaussian model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Metin, Baris; Wiersema, Jan R; Verguts, Tom; Gasthuys, Roos; van Der Meere, Jacob J; Roeyers, Herbert; Sonuga-Barke, Edmund

    2014-12-06

    According to the state regulation deficit (SRD) account, ADHD is associated with a problem using effort to maintain an optimal activation state under demanding task settings such as very fast or very slow event rates. This leads to a prediction of disrupted performance at event rate extremes reflected in higher Gaussian response variability that is a putative marker of activation during motor preparation. In the current study, we tested this hypothesis using ex-Gaussian modeling, which distinguishes Gaussian from non-Gaussian variability. Twenty-five children with ADHD and 29 typically developing controls performed a simple Go/No-Go task under four different event-rate conditions. There was an accentuated quadratic relationship between event rate and Gaussian variability in the ADHD group compared to the controls. The children with ADHD had greater Gaussian variability at very fast and very slow event rates but not at moderate event rates. The results provide evidence for the SRD account of ADHD. However, given that this effect did not explain all group differences (some of which were independent of event rate) other cognitive and/or motivational processes are also likely implicated in ADHD performance deficits.

  17. Evaluation of Two Methods for Incorporating a Systematic Uncertainty into a Test of the Background-only Hypothesis for a Poisson Process

    CERN Document Server

    Tucker, Jordan

    2008-01-01

    Hypothesis tests for the presence of new sources of Poisson counts amidst background processes are frequently performed in high energy physics, gamma ray astronomy, and other branches of science. This talk brie y summarizes work in which we evaluate two classes of algorithms for dealing with uncertainty in the mean background in such tests.

  18. Effect of 8 weeks of overfeeding on ectopic fat deposition and insulin sensitivity: testing the "adipose tissue expandability" hypothesis

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Johannsen, Darcy L; Tchoukalova, Yourka; Tam, Charmaine S; Covington, Jeffrey D; Xie, Wenting; Schwarz, Jean-Marc; Bajpeyi, Sudip; Ravussin, Eric

    2014-01-01

    The presence of large subcutaneous adipocytes in obesity has been proposed to be linked with insulin resistance and type 2 diabetes through the "adipose tissue expandability" hypothesis, which holds...

  19. Optimal tests for the two-sample spherical location problem

    CERN Document Server

    Ley, Christophe; Verdebout, Thomas

    2012-01-01

    We tackle the classical two-sample spherical location problem for directional data by having recourse to the Le Cam methodology, habitually used in classical "linear" multivariate analysis. More precisely we construct locally and asymptotically optimal (in the maximin sense) parametric tests, which we then turn into semi-parametric ones in two distinct ways. First, by using a studentization argument; this leads to so-called pseudo-FvML tests. Second, by resorting to the invariance principle; this leads to efficient rank-based tests. Within each construction, the semi-parametric tests inherit optimality under a given distribution (the FvML in the first case, any rotationally symmetric one in the second) from their parametric counterparts and also improve on the latter by being valid under the whole class of rotationally symmetric distributions. Asymptotic relative efficiencies are calculated and the finite-sample behavior of the proposed tests is investigated by means of a Monte Carlo simulation.

  20. Test problem construction for single-objective bilevel optimization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sinha, Ankur; Malo, Pekka; Deb, Kalyanmoy

    2014-01-01

    In this paper, we propose a procedure for designing controlled test problems for single-objective bilevel optimization. The construction procedure is flexible and allows its user to control the different complexities that are to be included in the test problems independently of each other. In addition to properties that control the difficulty in convergence, the procedure also allows the user to introduce difficulties caused by interaction of the two levels. As a companion to the test problem construction framework, the paper presents a standard test suite of 12 problems, which includes eight unconstrained and four constrained problems. Most of the problems are scalable in terms of variables and constraints. To provide baseline results, we have solved the proposed test problems using a nested bilevel evolutionary algorithm. The results can be used for comparison, while evaluating the performance of any other bilevel optimization algorithm. The code related to the paper may be accessed from the website http://bilevel.org .

  1. The Impact of Sense of Control and Social Support on Psychological Distress: A Test of the Hypothesis of Functional Substitution

    OpenAIRE

    Whelan, Christopher T.

    1991-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to explore the relationship between sense of control and perceptions of social support particularly as it affects psychological distress. The results provide no evidence for the displacement hypothesis whereby the benefits of social support involve costs in terms of independence. Consistent support, however, is found for the functional substitution hypothesis. The conclusion is unaffected by the introduction of distinctions relating to types of support and types o...

  2. Anaerobic metabolism at thermal extremes: a metabolomic test of the oxygen limitation hypothesis in an aquatic insect.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verberk, W C E P; Sommer, U; Davidson, R L; Viant, M R

    2013-10-01

    Thermal limits in ectotherms may arise through a mismatch between supply and demand of oxygen. At higher temperatures, the ability of their cardiac and ventilatory activities to supply oxygen becomes insufficient to meet their elevated oxygen demand. Consequently, higher levels of oxygen in the environment are predicted to enhance tolerance of heat, whereas reductions in oxygen are expected to reduce thermal limits. Here, we extend previous research on thermal limits and oxygen limitation in aquatic insect larvae and directly test the hypothesis of increased anaerobic metabolism and lower energy status at thermal extremes. We quantified metabolite profiles in stonefly nymphs under varying temperatures and oxygen levels. Under normoxia, the concept of oxygen limitation applies to the insects studied. Shifts in the metabolome of heat-stressed stonefly nymphs clearly indicate the onset of anaerobic metabolism (e.g., accumulation of lactate, acetate, and alanine), a perturbation of the tricarboxylic acid cycle (e.g., accumulation of succinate and malate), and a decrease in energy status (e.g., ATP), with corresponding decreases in their ability to survive heat stress. These shifts were more pronounced under hypoxic conditions, and negated by hyperoxia, which also improved heat tolerance. Perturbations of metabolic pathways in response to either heat stress or hypoxia were found to be somewhat similar but not identical. Under hypoxia, energy status was greatly compromised at thermal extremes, but energy shortage and anaerobic metabolism could not be conclusively identified as the sole cause underlying thermal limits under hyperoxia. Metabolomics proved useful for suggesting a range of possible mechanisms to explore in future investigations, such as the involvement of leaking membranes or free radicals. In doing so, metabolomics provided a more complete picture of changes in metabolism under hypoxia and heat stress.

  3. Testing the thrifty gene hypothesis: the Gly482Ser variant in PPARGC1A is associated with BMI in Tongans

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Macartney-Coxson Donia P

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The thrifty gene hypothesis posits that, in populations that experienced periods of feast and famine, natural selection favoured individuals carrying thrifty alleles that promote the storage of fat and energy. Polynesians likely experienced long periods of cold stress and starvation during their settlement of the Pacific and today have high rates of obesity and type 2 diabetes (T2DM, possibly due to past positive selection for thrifty alleles. Alternatively, T2DM risk alleles may simply have drifted to high frequency in Polynesians. To identify thrifty alleles in Polynesians, we previously examined evidence of positive selection on T2DM-associated SNPs and identified a T2DM risk allele at unusually high frequency in Polynesians. We suggested that the risk allele of the Gly482Ser variant in the PPARGC1A gene was driven to high frequency in Polynesians by positive selection and therefore possibly represented a thrifty allele in the Pacific. Methods Here we examine whether PPARGC1A is a thrifty gene in Pacific populations by testing for an association between Gly482Ser genotypes and BMI in two Pacific populations (Maori and Tongans and by evaluating the frequency of the risk allele of the Gly482Ser variant in a sample of worldwide populations. Results We find that the Gly482Ser variant is associated with BMI in Tongans but not in Maori. In a sample of 58 populations worldwide, we also show that the 482Ser risk allele reaches its highest frequency in the Pacific. Conclusion The association between Gly482Ser genotypes and BMI in Tongans together with the worldwide frequency distribution of the Gly482Ser risk allele suggests that PPARGC1A remains a candidate thrifty gene in Pacific populations.

  4. Ecological optimality in water-limited natural soil-vegetation systems. II - Tests and applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eagleson, P. S.; Tellers, T. E.

    1982-01-01

    The long-term optimal climatic climax soil-vegetation system is defined for several climates according to previous hypotheses in terms of two free parameters, effective porosity and plant water use coefficient. The free parameters are chosen by matching the predicted and observed average annual water yield. The resulting climax soil and vegetation properties are tested by comparison with independent observations of canopy density and average annual surface runoff. The climax properties are shown also to satisfy a previous hypothesis for short-term optimization of canopy density and water use coefficient. Using these hypotheses, a relationship between average evapotranspiration and optimum vegetation canopy density is derived and is compared with additional field observations. An algorithm is suggested by which the climax soil and vegetation properties can be calculated given only the climate parameters and the soil effective porosity. Sensitivity of the climax properties to the effective porosity is explored.

  5. Hypothesis in Language Learning Research

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammad Adnan Latief

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available Hypothesis is very often inevitable in research activities. Hypothesis is of at least three kinds, each of which should not be confused. A study trying to measure the relationship between variables can predict the finding based on theory or logical common sense. This prediction is called theoretical hypothesis. In testing hypothesis quantitatively, the theoretical hypothesis should be transformed into statistical hypothesis, which takes the form of Null hypothesis and its alternatives. It is the Null hypothesis that is to be tested to justify its rejection or otherwise its acceptance. In qualitative study, the result of first data analysis is called temporal empirical hypothesis that should be validated with more data. This cycle of rechecking the result with more data is done again and again until the hypothesis becomes the final conclusion.

  6. A test of the ‘use it or lose it’ hypothesis in labour markets around the world

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Albæk, Karsten

    2016-01-01

    This paper investigates skills and the use of skills at work in 21 OECD countries. The skills included in the analysis are literacy, numeracy and problem-solving. The paper investigates the conjecture that the deterioration of skills with age might be more pronounced in occupations with a limited...... use of skills than in occupations with more intensive use of these skills – an implication of the ‘use it or lose it’ hypothesis. The paper examines the development over age of both measured skills and the use of skills at work in two aggregate categories of occupations: a group of high...... it’ hypothesis....

  7. Mechanism underlying the development of unilateral spatial neglect; A test of the network hypothesis by SPECT study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nishikiori, Etsuko (Saitama Medical School, Moroyama (Japan))

    1992-10-01

    To test the hypothesis that functional disturbance of the neural network involving the inferior parietal lobule (IPL), anterior cingulate gyrus (ACG), dorsolateral frontal lobe (DLF), and thalamus (TH) as components of the right hemisphere underlies the development of unilateral spatial neglect (USN), cerebral perfusion was measured by [sup 123]I-IMP SPECT in 32 patients with cerebrovascular right brain damage, 20 of whom had USN and 12 of whom did not. In analyzing the SPECT data, RI uptake in the four component regions and cerebellum (serving as a control) were estimated by symmetrically placing 'regions of interest' from both hemispheres on SPECT slices, most suitable for each region. The 'regional to cerebellar ratio' (R/CE ratio) for each component region was calculated and the values were compared. In the USN group, R/CE ratio values for each component region in the right hemisphere were significantly lower than those in the left, whereas in the non-USN group there was no right-left difference. When R/CE ratio values for each component region in the right hemisphere were compared between the USN and non-USN group, those for the IPL, ACG and TH were significantly lower in the USN group; the value for the DLF was also lower in the USN group, although the difference was not significant. Significantly lower values of R/CE for each component region in the right hemisphere were noticed when the regions showed apparent involvement on X-ray CT/MRI. Furthermore, in seven of the USN patients where lesions revealed by CT/MRI did not involve network components, the R/CE ratio values for the components in the right hemisphere were lower than those in the left; the difference was significant for the IPL, ACG and TH, but not for the DLF. It is suggested that functional disturbance of the neural network involving the IPL, ACG, DLF and TH in the right hemisphere might underlie the development of USN. (author).

  8. 假说检验和科学方法%Hypothesis testing and the scientific method revisited

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Jerry O. WOLFF; Charles J.KREBS

    2008-01-01

    Our intention in this essay is one of consciousness raising for investigators to revisit the scientific method, make good use of hypothesis testing in research design, and have a good understanding o f natural history in the selection of model species. Our overall premise is that science could be advanced more quickly, objectively, and conclusively by following the logic of "Strong Inference", which posits rejecting alternative hypotheses and not just supporting favored hypotheses. We emphasize the importance and provide a logical sequence of steps from the observation, I.e. Identification of a problem or unknown that has biological significance, a listing of all credible alternative hypotheses that could explain the observation, each with its own set of testable and falsifiable predictions, followed by an experimental or research design that is a logical outcome of these predictions. We also emphasize the importance of selecting model species that are appropriate for addressing a specific theoretical question and drawing inferences. What we present is not new, rather a reminder of the value of following basic scientific approaches for the advancement of science as well as individual careers.%本文的意图是让研究者审视研究方法,并在研究设计中充分使用假说检验,并在选择模式物种时充分理解其自然史.我们的总前提是,按照"强推论"(指假定拒绝某一假说而不是支持某一偏爱假说)的逻辑,科学能够进展得更快、更可观、更有确定性.我们强调并提供了符合逻辑的一系列步骤,即确定科学问题或确定具有未知生物学意义的问题;列出所有可靠的、能解释所观察现象的假说,每个假说列出其可检验的、可证明其无根据的预测;然后是符合预测检验的实验或研究设计.我们也强调,模式物种对于解决科学的理论问题以及得出推论是很重要的.本文所展示的不是新思想,只是提醒研究者要注意遵循的基本研究途径.

  9. Effects of Induced Orthographic and Semantic Knowledge on Subsequent Learning: A Test of the Partial Knowledge Hypothesis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adlof, Suzanne; Frishkoff, Gwen; Dandy, Jennifer; Perfetti, Charles

    2016-01-01

    Word learning can build the high-quality word representations that support skilled reading and language comprehension. According to the partial knowledge hypothesis, words that are partially known, also known as "frontier words" (Durso & Shore, 1991), may be good targets for instruction precisely because they are already familiar.…

  10. Born to win? Testing the fighting hypothesis in realistic fights : left-handedness in the Ultimate Fighting Championship

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pollet, Thomas V.; Stulp, Gert; Groothuis, Ton G. G.

    2013-01-01

    Given the heritability of human left-handedness and its purported associations with fitness-lowering traits, the persistence of the minority of left-handedness in human populations is an evolutionary puzzle. The fighting hypothesis proposes that these negative fitness costs are offset by fitness gai

  11. Effects of Interspersing Rates on Students Performance on and Preferences for Mathematics Assignments: Testing the Discrete Task Completion Hypothesis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cates, Gary L.; Erkfritz, Karyn N.

    2007-01-01

    The current study investigated the discreet task completion hypothesis presented by C. H. Skinner (2002) by investigating how the rate of interspersing affects performance on and preferences for academic assignments. Specifically, 70 sixth-, seventh-, and eighth-grade students were presented with four assignment pairs of multiplication problems.…

  12. Light environment and tree strategies in a Bolivian tropical moist forest; a test of the light-partitioning hypothesis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Poorter, L.; Arets, E.J.M.M.

    2003-01-01

    Light partitioning is thought to contribute to the coexistence of rain forest tree species. This study evaluates the three premises underlying the light partitioning hypothesis; 1) there is a gradient in light availability at the forest floor, 2) tree species show a differential distribution with re

  13. Increasing Task Difficulty Enhances Effects of Intersensory Redundancy: Testing a New Prediction of the Intersensory Redundancy Hypothesis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bahrick, Lorraine E.; Lickliter, Robert; Castellanos, Irina; Vaillant-Molina, Mariana

    2010-01-01

    Prior research has demonstrated intersensory facilitation for perception of amodal properties of events such as tempo and rhythm in early development, supporting predictions of the Intersensory Redundancy Hypothesis (IRH). Specifically, infants discriminate amodal properties in bimodal, redundant stimulation but not in unimodal, nonredundant…

  14. Tanpopo: Astrobiology Exposure and Micrometeoroid Capture, a Sample Return Experiment to Test Quasi-Panspermia Hypothesis Onboard the ISS-Kibo Exposed Facility

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yano, H.; Yamagishi, A.; Hashimoto, H.; Yokobori, S.; Kobayashi, K.; Yabuta, H.; Mita, H.; Tabata, M.; Kawai, H.; Higashide, M.; Okudaira, K.; Sasaki, S.; Imai, E.; Kawaguchi, Y.; Uchibori, Y.; Kodaira, S.; Tanpopo Project Team

    2013-11-01

    As the first Japanese astrobiology experiment in space, the Tanpopo will test key concepts of the quasi-panspermia hypothesis by sample returns of microbe and bio-orgaincs exposure and micrometeoroid capture onboard ISS-Kibo Exposed Facility ExHAM.

  15. Conservativeness in Rejection of the Null Hypothesis when Using the Continuity Correction in the MH Chi-Square Test in DIF Applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paek, Insu

    2010-01-01

    Conservative bias in rejection of a null hypothesis from using the continuity correction in the Mantel-Haenszel (MH) procedure was examined through simulation in a differential item functioning (DIF) investigation context in which statistical testing uses a prespecified level [alpha] for the decision on an item with respect to DIF. The standard MH…

  16. Statistical Testing of Optimality Conditions in Multiresponse Simulation-based Optimization (Revision of 2005-81)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bettonvil, B.W.M.; Del Castillo, E.; Kleijnen, J.P.C.

    2007-01-01

    This paper studies simulation-based optimization with multiple outputs. It assumes that the simulation model has one random objective function and must satisfy given constraints on the other random outputs. It presents a statistical procedure for test- ing whether a specific input combination

  17. Statistical Testing of Optimality Conditions in Multiresponse Simulation-based Optimization (Revision of 2005-81)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bettonvil, B.W.M.; Del Castillo, E.; Kleijnen, J.P.C.

    2007-01-01

    This paper studies simulation-based optimization with multiple outputs. It assumes that the simulation model has one random objective function and must satisfy given constraints on the other random outputs. It presents a statistical procedure for test- ing whether a specific input combination (propo

  18. A Case Study to Test Mozaik for Different Optimization Problems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bekar, Kursat B [ORNL; Azmy, Yousry [North Carolina State University; Unlu, Kenan [Pennsylvania State University; BrenizerJr., Jack [Pennsylvania State University

    2009-01-01

    We present four different shape optimization problems based on the existing beam port facility of the Penn State Breazeale Reactor and their results obtained by the modular optimization code package, MOZAIK. Each model problem has a different beam tube configuration with the same optimization goal: to determine an optimal D2O moderator tank shape for the given beam tube arrangement that maximizes the thermal neutron beam intensity at the beam tube exit end. In this study, the power of the automated search process was demonstrated and its capabilities were tested. In addition, the performance of the beam port was analyzed using alternative beam tube arrangements. All alternative arrangements indicate that higher thermal neutron beam intensity can be obtained at the beam tube exit end using a smaller volume of D2O in the system than is used in the existing beam port configuration. Moreover, the results show that MOZAIK is ready for deployment to address shape optimization problems involving radiation transport in nuclear engineering applications.

  19. Bayesian optimal design of step stress accelerated degradation testing

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Xiaoyang Li; Mohammad Rezvanizaniani; Zhengzheng Ge; Mohamed Abuali; Jay Lee

    2015-01-01

    This study presents a Bayesian methodology for de-signing step stress accelerated degradation testing (SSADT) and its application to batteries. First, the simulation-based Bayesian de-sign framework for SSADT is presented. Then, by considering his-torical data, specific optimal objectives oriented Kul back–Leibler (KL) divergence is established. A numerical example is discussed to il ustrate the design approach. It is assumed that the degrada-tion model (or process) fol ows a drift Brownian motion;the accele-ration model fol ows Arrhenius equation; and the corresponding parameters fol ow normal and Gamma prior distributions. Using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method and WinBUGS software, the comparison shows that KL divergence is better than quadratic loss for optimal criteria. Further, the effect of simulation outliers on the optimization plan is analyzed and the preferred sur-face fitting algorithm is chosen. At the end of the paper, a NASA lithium-ion battery dataset is used as historical information and the KL divergence oriented Bayesian design is compared with maxi-mum likelihood theory oriented local y optimal design. The results show that the proposed method can provide a much better testing plan for this engineering application.

  20. Testing the hypothesis that treatment can eliminate HIV: a nationwide, population-based study of the Danish HIV epidemic in men who have sex with men

    Science.gov (United States)

    Okano, Justin T.; Robbins, Danielle; Palk, Laurence; Gerstoft, Jan; Obel, Niels; Blower, Sally

    2017-01-01

    Summary Background Worldwide, ~35 million individuals are infected with HIV; ~25 million in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). The WHO proposes using “treatment as prevention” (TasP) to eliminate HIV. Treatment suppresses viral load, decreasing the probability an individual transmits HIV. The elimination threshold is one new HIV infection per 1,000 individuals. Here, we test the hypothesis that TasP can substantially reduce epidemics and eliminate HIV. We estimate the impact of TasP, between 1996–2013, on the Danish HIV epidemic in Men-who-have-Sex-with-Men (MSM), an epidemic UNAIDS has identified as a priority for elimination. Methods We use a CD4-staged Bayesian back-calculation approach to estimate incidence, and the “hidden epidemic” (the number of HIV-infected undiagnosed MSM). We use data from an ongoing nationwide population-based study: the Danish HIV Cohort Study. Findings Incidence, and the hidden epidemic, decreased substantially after treatment was introduced in 1996. By 2013, incidence was close to the elimination threshold: 1·4 (median, 95% Bayesian Credible Interval (BCI): 0·4–2·1) new HIV infections per 1,000 MSM. There were only 617 (median, 95% BCI: 264–858) undiagnosed MSM. Decreasing incidence and increasing treatment coverage are highly correlated; a threshold effect is apparent. Interpretation Our study is the first to show that TasP can substantially reduce a country’s HIV epidemic, and bring it close to elimination. However, we have shown the effectiveness of TasP under optimal conditions: very high treatment coverage, and exceptionally high (98%) viral suppression rate. Unless these extremely challenging conditions can be met in SSA, the WHO’s global elimination strategy is unlikely to succeed. Funding NIAID/NIH PMID:27174504

  1. Optimal allocation of testing effort during testing and debugging phases: a control theoretic approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kapur, P. K.; Pham, Hoang; Chanda, Udayan; Kumar, Vijay

    2013-09-01

    Allocation of efforts to a software development project during the testing phase is a multifaceted task for software managers. The challenges become stiffer when the nature of the development process is considered in the dynamic environment. Many software reliability growth models have been proposed in last decade to minimise the total testing-effort expenditures, but mostly under static assumption. The main purpose of this article is to investigate an optimal resource allocation plan to minimise the cost of software during the testing and operational phase under dynamic condition. An elaborate optimisation policy based on the optimal control theory is proposed and numerical examples are illustrated. This article also studies the optimal resource allocation problems for various conditions by examining the behaviour of the model parameters and also suggests policy for the optimal release time of the software. The experimental results greatly help us to identify the contribution of each selected parameter and its weight.

  2. A test of the ‘use it or lose it’ hypothesis in labour markets around the world

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Albæk, Karsten

    use of skills than in occupations with more intensive use of these skills – an implication of the ‘use it or lose it’ hypothesis. I look at the development over age of both measured skills and the use of skills at work in two aggregate categories of occupations: a group of high-skilled workers (ISCO...... for high- and low-skilled workers at about the same pace. The use of skills at work also declines from the age of 35 for both high-skilled workers and low-skilled workers at about the same pace, and at about the same rate as measured skills. The evidence does not support the ‘use it or lose it’ hypothesis....

  3. Conditional sampling technique to test the applicability of the Taylor hypothesis for the large-scale coherent structures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hussain, A. K. M. F.

    1980-01-01

    Comparisons of the distributions of large scale structures in turbulent flow with distributions based on time dependent signals from stationary probes and the Taylor hypothesis are presented. The study investigated an area in the near field of a 7.62 cm circular air jet at a Re of 32,000, specifically having coherent structures through small-amplitude controlled excitation and stable vortex pairing in the jet column mode. Hot-wire and X-wire anemometry were employed to establish phase averaged spatial distributions of longitudinal and lateral velocities, coherent Reynolds stress and vorticity, background turbulent intensities, streamlines and pseudo-stream functions. The Taylor hypothesis was used to calculate spatial distributions of the phase-averaged properties, with results indicating that the usage of the local time-average velocity or streamwise velocity produces large distortions.

  4. A new method for sperm characterization for infertility treatment: hypothesis testing by using combination of watershed segmentation and graph theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shojaedini, Seyed Vahab; Heydari, Masoud

    2014-10-01

    Shape and movement features of sperms are important parameters for infertility study and treatment. In this article, a new method is introduced for characterization sperms in microscopic videos. In this method, first a hypothesis framework is defined to distinguish sperms from other particles in captured video. Then decision about each hypothesis is done in following steps: Selecting some primary regions as candidates for sperms by watershed-based segmentation, pruning of some false candidates during successive frames using graph theory concept and finally confirming correct sperms by using their movement trajectories. Performance of the proposed method is evaluated on real captured images belongs to semen with high density of sperms. The obtained results show the proposed method may detect 97% of sperms in presence of 5% false detections and track 91% of moving sperms. Furthermore, it can be shown that better characterization of sperms in proposed algorithm doesn't lead to extracting more false sperms compared to some present approaches.

  5. Conditional sampling technique to test the applicability of the Taylor hypothesis for the large-scale coherent structures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hussain, A. K. M. F.

    1980-01-01

    Comparisons of the distributions of large scale structures in turbulent flow with distributions based on time dependent signals from stationary probes and the Taylor hypothesis are presented. The study investigated an area in the near field of a 7.62 cm circular air jet at a Re of 32,000, specifically having coherent structures through small-amplitude controlled excitation and stable vortex pairing in the jet column mode. Hot-wire and X-wire anemometry were employed to establish phase averaged spatial distributions of longitudinal and lateral velocities, coherent Reynolds stress and vorticity, background turbulent intensities, streamlines and pseudo-stream functions. The Taylor hypothesis was used to calculate spatial distributions of the phase-averaged properties, with results indicating that the usage of the local time-average velocity or streamwise velocity produces large distortions.

  6. Fine motor skills enhance lexical processing of embodied vocabulary: A test of the nimble-hands, nimble-minds hypothesis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suggate, Sebastian; Stoeger, Heidrun

    2017-10-01

    Research suggests that fine motor skills (FMS) are linked to aspects of cognitive development in children. Additionally, lexical processing advantages exist for words implying a high body-object interaction (BOI), with initial findings indicating that such words in turn link to children's FMS-for which we propose and evaluate four competing hypotheses. First, a maturational account argues that any links between FMS and lexical processing should not exist once developmental variables are controlled for. Second, functionalism posits that any link between FMS and lexical processing arises due to environmental interactions. Third, the semantic richness hypothesis argues that sensorimotor input improves lexical processing, but predicts no links between FMS and lexical processing. A fourth account, the nimble-hands, nimble minds (NHNM) hypothesis, proposes that having greater FMS improves lexical processing for high-BOI words. In two experiments, the response latencies of preschool children (n = 90, n = 76, ages = 5;1) to 45 lexical items encompassing high-BOI, low-BOI, and less imageable words were measured, alongside measures of FMS, reasoning, and general receptive/expressive vocabulary. High-BOI words appeared to show unique links to FMS, which remained after accounting for low-BOI and less imageable words, general vocabulary, reasoning, and chronological age. Although further work is needed, the findings provide initial support for the NHNM hypothesis.

  7. Global relationship of fire occurrence and fire intensity: A test of intermediate fire occurrence-intensity hypothesis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luo, Ruisen; Hui, Dafeng; Miao, Ning; Liang, Chuan; Wells, Nicholas

    2017-05-01

    Fire plays a significant role in global atmosphere and biosphere carbon and nutrient cycles. Globally, there are substantially different distributions and impacts between fire occurrence and fire intensity. It is prominent to have a thorough investigation of global relationship between fire occurrence and fire intensity for future fire prediction and management. In this study, we proposed an intermediate fire occurrence-intensity (IFOI) hypothesis for the global relationship between fire occurrence and fire intensity, suggesting that fire occurrence changes with fire intensity following a humped relationship. We examined this hypothesis via satellite data from January 2001 to December 2013 at a global scale, and in small and large fire intensity zones, respectively. Furthermore, the fire occurrence and fire intensity relationship was developed among different vegetation types to reveal the changes of parameters and strengths. Finally, the environmental factors (including climatic, hydraulic, biological, and anthropogenic variables) underpinning the fire occurrence and intensity pattern were evaluated for the underlying mechanisms. The results supported our IFOI hypothesis and demonstrated that the humped relationship is driven by different causes among vegetation types. Fire occurrence increases with fire intensity in small fire intensity zones due to alleviation of the factors limiting both fire occurrence and intensity. Beyond a certain fire intensity threshold, fire occurrence is constrained, probably due to the limitation of available fuels. The information generated in this study could be helpful for understanding global variation of fire occurrence and fire intensity due to fire-vegetation-climate-human interactions and facilitating future fire management.

  8. Seismicity and Attenuation Correlation Analysis in the Bucaramanga Nest (Colombia). A Test for the Brittle-Ductile Interaction Hypothesis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tarela, E.; Pujades, L. G.; Ugalde, A.

    2008-12-01

    Technical advances are nowadays starting to provide data sets covering large enough time windows and allowing studying the time evolution of several seismic parameters with some perspective. We study here, at a local scale, the following items: 1) the time evolution of two of these parameters, the seismicity and the coda-wave-attenuation, 2) their relationship in order to test the brittle-ductile interaction hypothesis of the lithosphere-asthenosphere complex system, and 3) its possible use as a mid-term predictor. Seismicity represents the brittle zone stress state, while the one of the ductile zone is characterized by the attenuation of coda waves, which here is measured through coda-Q quality factor. According to the model, the time series will present a similar variation rate during the calm period of the cycle. About two years before a major earthquake takes place in the region, the stress state of both the brittle and the ductile parts of the lithosphere-asthenosphere system would change and the correlation between the two parameters would break down because of this uncoupling. So, a correlation analysis of the two time series would lead to a mid- term prediction. The method is applied in a region with a complex and deep seismicity; this is, the Nest of Bucaramanga (Colombia). The seismic catalogue and waveforms for the attenuation analysis are obtained from Ingeominas; the catalogue includes 13629 events with local magnitude ML>3, fulfilling the magnitude completeness conditions. The seismic attenuation data are obtained from waveforms that have been selected between more than 17000 short period vertical seismograms, recorded at Barichara station, which is located right over the seismic nest. Over 3600 of these waveforms fulfil the magnitude completeness conditions, happened at hypocentral distances smaller than 150km and give coda Q fitting values with correlation coefficients r2≥0.7 So, for the time evolution we were able to average over 50 values of Q0

  9. Socioeconomic inequality in health in the British household panel: Tests of the social causation, health selection and the indirect selection hypothesis using dynamic fixed effects panel models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foverskov, Else; Holm, Anders

    2016-02-01

    Despite social inequality in health being well documented, it is still debated which causal mechanism best explains the negative association between socioeconomic position (SEP) and health. This paper is concerned with testing the explanatory power of three widely proposed causal explanations for social inequality in health in adulthood: the social causation hypothesis (SEP determines health), the health selection hypothesis (health determines SEP) and the indirect selection hypothesis (no causal relationship). We employ dynamic data of respondents aged 30 to 60 from the last nine waves of the British Household Panel Survey. Household income and location on the Cambridge Scale is included as measures of different dimensions of SEP and health is measured as a latent factor score. The causal hypotheses are tested using a time-based Granger approach by estimating dynamic fixed effects panel regression models following the method suggested by Anderson and Hsiao. We propose using this method to estimate the associations over time since it allows one to control for all unobserved time-invariant factors and hence lower the chances of biased estimates due to unobserved heterogeneity. The results showed no proof of the social causation hypothesis over a one to five year period and limited support for the health selection hypothesis was seen only for men in relation to HH income. These findings were robust in multiple sensitivity analysis. We conclude that the indirect selection hypothesis may be the most important in explaining social inequality in health in adulthood, indicating that the well-known cross-sectional correlations between health and SEP in adulthood seem not to be driven by a causal relationship, but instead by dynamics and influences in place before the respondents turn 30 years old that affect both their health and SEP onwards. The conclusion is limited in that we do not consider the effect of specific diseases and causal relationships in adulthood may be

  10. Permutation test for non-inferiority of the linear to the optimal combination of multiple tests.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jin, Hua; Lu, Ying

    2009-03-01

    We proposed a permutation test for non-inferiority of the linear discriminant function to the optimal combination of multiple tests based on Mann-Whitney statistic estimate of the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. Monte Carlo simulations showed its good performance.

  11. Word frequency effects in immediate serial recall of pure and mixed lists: tests of the associative link hypothesis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saint-Aubin, Jean; LeBlanc, Jacinthe

    2005-12-01

    In immediate serial recall, high-frequency words are better recalled than low-frequency words. Recently, it has been suggested that high-frequency words are better recalled because of their better long-term associative links, and not because of the intrinsic properties of their long-term representations. In the experiment reported here, recall performance was compared for pure lists of high- and low-frequency words, and for mixed lists composed of either one low- and five high-frequency words or the reverse. The usual advantage of high-frequency words was found with pure lists and this advantage was reduced, but still significant with mixed lists composed of five low-frequency words. However, the low-frequency word included in a high-frequency list was recalled just as well as high-frequency words. Results are challenging for the associative link hypothesis and are best interpreted within an item-based reconstruction hypothesis, along with a distinctiveness account.

  12. Are girls really becoming more delinquent? Testing the gender convergence hypothesis by race and ethnicity, 1976-2005.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goodkind, Sara; Wallace, John M; Shook, Jeffrey J; Bachman, Jerald; O'Malley, Patrick

    2009-08-01

    Historically, girls have been less delinquent than boys. However, increased justice system involvement among girls and current portrayals of girls in the popular media and press suggest that girls' delinquency, particularly their violence and drug use, is becoming more similar to that of boys. Are girls really becoming more delinquent? To date, this question remains unresolved. Girls' increased system involvement might reflect actual changes in their behavior or changes in justice system policies and practices. Given that girls of color are overrepresented in the justice system, efforts to rigorously examine the gender convergence hypothesis must consider the role of race/ethnicity in girls' delinquency. This study uses self-report data from a large, nationally representative sample of youth to investigate the extent to which the magnitude of gender differences in violence and substance use varies across racial/ethnic groups and explore whether these differences have decreased over time. We find little support for the gender convergence hypothesis, because, with a few exceptions, the data do not show increases in girls' violence or drug use. Furthermore, even when girls' violent behavior or drug use has increased, the magnitude of the increase is not substantial enough to account for the dramatic increases in girls' arrests for violence and drug abuse violations.

  13. The establishment of refuse fields of parameter hypothesis testing in statistics%统计学中参数假设检验拒绝域的确定

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    杨刚

    2012-01-01

    许多统计学教材关于假设检验中拒绝域和接受域的确定过程过于简洁而导致相关知识抽象、难懂,故对这个过程的深入研究很有必要。首先展示了假设检验的基本思想,接着给出了关于一个总体参数的单侧检验、双侧检验过程中拒绝域和接受域确定的推理、推导过程,并展示了应用实例。最后,对当前统计学教材中假设检验内容的组织提出了一点建议。%The descriptions of establishment process ,and refuse and acceptance fields of parameter hypothesis testing in many statistics teaching materials are so compact that the knowledge is abstract and deep. Therefore,it is necessary to make a detailed study on this process. In this paper, firstly, the author shows the essential concept of hypothesis testing. Then, he gives reasoning process of refuse and acceptance fields in one-sided and two-sided testing of one collectivity parameter, and gives application examples. Lastly, he offers some proposals for organization of parameter hypothesis testing in current statistics teaching materials.

  14. On-Chip Test Infrastructure Design for Optimal Multi-Site Testing of System Chips

    CERN Document Server

    Goel, Sandeep Kumar

    2011-01-01

    Multi-site testing is a popular and effective way to increase test throughput and reduce test costs. We present a test throughput model, in which we focus on wafer testing, and consider parameters like test time, index time, abort-on-fail, and contact yield. Conventional multi-site testing requires sufficient ATE resources, such as ATE channels, to allow to test multiple SOCs in parallel. In this paper, we design and optimize on-chip DfT, in order to maximize the test throughput for a given SOC and ATE. The on-chip DfT consists of an E-RPCT wrapper, and, for modular SOCs, module wrappers and TAMs. We present experimental results for a Philips SOC and several ITC'02 SOC Test Benchmarks.

  15. Optimal sequencing during category learning: Testing a dual-learning systems perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Noh, Sharon M; Yan, Veronica X; Bjork, Robert A; Maddox, W Todd

    2016-10-01

    Recent studies demonstrate that interleaving the exemplars of different categories, rather than blocking exemplars by category, can enhance inductive learning-the ability to categorize new exemplars-presumably because interleaving affords discriminative contrasts between exemplars from different categories. Consistent with this view, other studies have demonstrated that decreasing between-category similarity and increasing within-category variability can eliminate or even reverse the interleaving benefit. We tested another hypothesis, one based on the dual-learning systems framework-namely, that the optimal schedule for learning categories should depend on an interaction of the cognitive system that mediates learning and the structure of the particular category being learned. Blocking should enhance rule-based category learning, which is mediated by explicit, hypothesis-testing processes, whereas interleaving should enhance information-integration category learning, which is mediated by an implicit, procedural-based learning system. Consistent with this view, we found a crossover interaction between schedule (blocked vs. interleaved) and category structure (rule-based vs. information-integration). Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  16. Evaluation of two methods for incorporating a systematic uncertainty into a test of the background-only hypothesis for a Poisson process

    CERN Document Server

    Cousins, R D; Cousins, Robert D.; Tucker, Jordan

    2007-01-01

    Hypothesis tests for the presence of new sources of Poisson counts amidst background processes are frequently performed in high energy physics, gamma ray astronomy, and other branches of science. While there are conceptual issues already when the mean rate of background is precisely known, the issues are even more difficult when the mean background rate has non-negligible uncertainty, as some commonly used techniques are not on a sound foundation. In this paper, we evaluate two classes of algorithms by the criterion of how close the ensemble-average Type I error rate (rejection of the background-only hypothesis when it is true) compares with the nominal significance level given by the algorithm. Following J. Linnemann, we recommend wider use of an algorithm firmly grounded in frequentist tests of the ratio of Poisson means.

  17. Optimization of Allowed Outage Time and Surveillance Test Intervals

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Al-Dheeb, Mujahed; Kang, Sunkoo; Kim, Jonghyun [KEPCO international nuclear graduate school, Ulsan (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-10-15

    The primary purpose of surveillance testing is to assure that the components of standby safety systems will be operable when they are needed in an accident. By testing these components, failures can be detected that may have occurred since the last test or the time when the equipment was last known to be operational. The probability a system or system component performs a specified function or mission under given conditions at a prescribed time is called availability (A). Unavailability (U) as a risk measure is just the complementary probability to A(t). The increase of U means the risk is increased as well. D and T have an important impact on components, or systems, unavailability. The extension of D impacts the maintenance duration distributions for at-power operations, making them longer. This, in turn, increases the unavailability due to maintenance in the systems analysis. As for T, overly-frequent surveillances can result in high system unavailability. This is because the system may be taken out of service often due to the surveillance itself and due to the repair of test-caused failures of the component. The test-caused failures include those incurred by wear and tear of the component due to the surveillances. On the other hand, as the surveillance interval increases, the component's unavailability will grow because of increased occurrences of time-dependent random failures. In that situation, the component cannot be relied upon, and accordingly the system unavailability will increase. Thus, there should be an optimal component surveillance interval in terms of the corresponding system availability. This paper aims at finding the optimal T and D which result in minimum unavailability which in turn reduces the risk. Applying the methodology in section 2 to find the values of optimal T and D for two components, i.e., safety injection pump (SIP) and turbine driven aux feedwater pump (TDAFP). Section 4 is addressing interaction between D and T. In general

  18. Testing the economic independence hypothesis: the effect of an exogenous increase in child support on subsequent marriage and cohabitation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cancian, Maria; Meyer, Daniel R

    2014-06-01

    We examine the effects of an increase in income on the cohabitation and marriage of single mothers. Using data from an experiment that resulted in randomly assigned differences in child support receipt for welfare-receiving single mothers, we find that exogenous income increases (as a result of receiving all child support that was paid) are associated with significantly lower cohabitation rates between mothers and men who are not the fathers of their child(ren). Overall, these results support the hypothesis that additional income increases disadvantaged women's economic independence by reducing the need to be in the least stable type of partnerships. Our results also show the potential importance of distinguishing between biological and social fathers.

  19. Trappings of femininity: A test of the "beauty as currency" hypothesis in shaping college women's gender activism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calogero, Rachel M; Tylka, Tracy L; Donnelly, Lois C; McGetrick, Amber; Leger, Andrea Medrano

    2017-03-17

    This study investigated whether believing beauty is a primary currency for women operates as an antecedent force in the relation between self-objectification and gender activism. Ninety-four ethnically diverse women attending a small liberal arts college in the southeastern United States completed the study questionnaires online for course credit. Preliminary results demonstrated beauty as currency belief, self-objectification, and support for the gender status quo were negatively associated with gender activism. A serial mediation analysis revealed support for the proposed model: Beauty as currency belief was indirectly and inversely linked to gender activism through self-objectification and support for the gender status quo, offering initial evidence for our beauty as currency hypothesis. These findings suggest belief in the notion women will reap more benefits from their bodies than other attributes or pursuits may be an important legitimizing feature of feminine beauty ideology that works through self-objectification against gender social change.

  20. Effect of 8 weeks of overfeeding on ectopic fat deposition and insulin sensitivity: testing the "adipose tissue expandability" hypothesis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johannsen, Darcy L; Tchoukalova, Yourka; Tam, Charmaine S; Covington, Jeffrey D; Xie, Wenting; Schwarz, Jean-Marc; Bajpeyi, Sudip; Ravussin, Eric

    2014-10-01

    The presence of large subcutaneous adipocytes in obesity has been proposed to be linked with insulin resistance and type 2 diabetes through the "adipose tissue expandability" hypothesis, which holds that large adipocytes have a limited capacity for expansion, forcing lipids to be stored in nonadipose ectopic depots (skeletal muscle, liver), where they interfere with insulin signaling. This hypothesis has, however, been largely formulated by cross-sectional findings and to date has not been prospectively demonstrated in the development of insulin resistance in humans. Twenty-nine men (26.8 ± 5.4 years old; BMI 25.5 ± 2.3 kg/m(2)) were fed 40% more than their baseline requirement for 8 weeks. Before and after overfeeding, insulin sensitivity was determined using a two-step hyperinsulinemic-euglycemic clamp. Intrahepatic lipid (IHL) and intramyocellular lipid (IMCL) were measured by (1)H-MRS and abdominal fat by MRI. Subcutaneous abdominal adipose and skeletal muscle tissues were collected to measure adipocyte size and markers of tissue inflammation. Subjects gained 7.6 ± 2.1 kg (55% fat) and insulin sensitivity decreased 18% (P insulin sensitivity, which was linked with upregulated skeletal muscle tissue inflammation. In experimental substantial weight gain, the presence of larger adipocytes did not promote ectopic lipid accumulation. In contrast, smaller fat cells were associated with a worsened metabolic response to overfeeding. © 2014 by the American Diabetes Association. Readers may use this article as long as the work is properly cited, the use is educational and not for profit, and the work is not altered.

  1. Optimizing human semen cryopreservation by reducing test vial volume and repetitive test vial sampling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Christian F S; Ohl, Dana A; Parker, Walter R

    2015-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To investigate optimal test vial (TV) volume, utility and reliability of TVs, intermediate temperature exposure (-88°C to -93°C) before cryostorage, cryostorage in nitrogen vapor (VN2) and liquid nitrogen (LN2), and long-term stability of VN2 cryostorage of human semen. DESIGN: Prospec......OBJECTIVE: To investigate optimal test vial (TV) volume, utility and reliability of TVs, intermediate temperature exposure (-88°C to -93°C) before cryostorage, cryostorage in nitrogen vapor (VN2) and liquid nitrogen (LN2), and long-term stability of VN2 cryostorage of human semen. DESIGN...

  2. The Frontal Hypothesis of Cognitive Aging: Factor Structure and Age Effects on Four "Frontal Tests" among Healthy Individuals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodriguez-Aranda, Claudia; Sundet, Kjetil

    2006-01-01

    With 101 healthy aging adult participants, the authors investigated whether executive functions are a unitary concept. The authors established the factor structure of the Wisconsin Card Sorting Test (WCST; E. A. Berg, 1948), the Stroop color and word test (C. J. Golden, 1978), verbal fluency using the Controlled Oral Word Association Test (COWAT;…

  3. Pilot test and optimization of plasma based deNOx

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stamate, Eugen; Chen, Weifeng; Michelsen, Poul

    The NOx reduction of flue gas by plasma generated ozone was investigated in pilot test experiments at two industrial power plants running on natural gas (Ringsted) and biomass (Haslev). Reduction rates higher than 95% have been achieved for a molar ratio O3:NOx of 1.56. Fourier transform infrared....... Experiments are in good agreement with numerical simulations. An optimized oxidation scheme for NOx reduction processes with time dependent combustion, such as the biomass power plants, was developed. Ozone production by micro-hollow and capillary discharges at atmospheric pressures was investigated...

  4. Model-based optimization of phased array ultrasonic testing

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Sung-Jin; Song; Hak-Joon; Kim; Suk-Chull; Kang; Sung-Sik; Kang; Kyungcho; Kim; Myung-Ho; Song

    2010-01-01

    Simulation of phased array beams in dovetail and austenitic welds is conducted to optimize the setup of phased array ultrasonic testing(PAUT).To simulate the beam in such material with complex geometry or with characteristic of anisotropy and inhomogeneity, firstly,linear phased multi-Gaussian beam(LPMGB) models are introduced and discussed. Then,in the case of dovetail,wedge is designed to maximize the stable amplitude of the beam along the steering path;in the case of austenitic weld,modified focal law...

  5. Testing optimality with experimental evolution: lysis time in a bacteriophage.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heineman, Richard H; Bull, James J

    2007-07-01

    Optimality models collapse the vagaries of genetics into simple trade-offs to calculate phenotypes expected to evolve by natural selection. Optimality approaches are commonly criticized for this neglect of genetic details, but resolution of this disagreement has been difficult. The importance of genetic details may be tested by experimental evolution of a trait for which an optimality model exists and in which genetic details can be studied. Here we evolved lysis time in bacteriophage T7, a virus of Escherichia coli. Lysis time is equivalent to the age of reproduction in an organism that reproduces once and then dies. Delaying lysis increases the number of offspring but slows generation time, and this trade-off renders the optimum sensitive to environmental conditions: earlier lysis is favored when bacterial hosts are dense, later lysis is favored when hosts are sparse. In experimental adaptations, T7 evolved close to the optimum in conditions favoring early lysis but not in conditions favoring late lysis. One of the late lysis adaptations exhibited no detectable phenotypic evolution despite genetic evolution; the other evolved only partly toward the expected optimum. Overall, the lysis time of the adapted phages remained closer to their starting values than predicted by the model. From the perspective of the optimality model, the experimental conditions were expected to select changes only along the postulated trade-off, but a trait outside the trade-off evolved as well. Evidence suggests that the model's failure ultimately stems from a violation of the trade-off, rather than a paucity of mutations.

  6. The program structure designing and optimizing tests of GRAPES physics

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    XU GuoQiang; WANG ShiYu; CHEN DeHui; XUE JiShan; SUN Jian; SHEN XueShun; SHEN YuanFang; HUANG LiPing; WU XiangJun; ZHANG HongLiang

    2008-01-01

    According to the modularization and standardization of program structure in Global/Regional Assimi-lation and Prediction System (GRAPES), the plug-compatible and transplantable regional meso-scale and global middle-range physics software package is established, The package's component integrality is comparative with the other advanced models physics. A three-level structure of connecting GRAPES physics and dynamic frame has been constructed. The friendly interface is designed for users to plug in their own physics packages. Phenomenon of grid-point storm rainfall in numerical prediction is analyzed with the numerical tests. The scheme of air vertical velocity calculation is improved. Opti-mizing tests of physics schemes are performed with the correlative parameters adjusting. The results show that the false grid-point storm rainfall is removed by precipitation scheme improving. Then the score of precipitation forecast is enhanced.

  7. Is low IQ related to risk of death by homicide? Testing an hypothesis using data from a longitudinal study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Batty, George David; Mortensen, Laust Hvas; Gale, Catharine R

    2008-01-01

    Lower IQ test scores are related to an increased risk of violent assault. We tested the relation between IQ and death by homicide. In a prospective cohort study of 14,537 men (21 homicides), the association between lower IQ and an increased risk of homicide was lost after multiple adjustment....

  8. A test of the ‘use it or lose it’ hypothesis in labour markets around the world

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Albæk, Karsten

    This paper investigates skills and the use of skills at work in 21 OECD countries. The skills included in the analysis are literacy, numeracy and problem-solving. The paper investigates the conjecture that the deterioration of skills with age might be more pronounced in occupations with a limited...... use of skills than in occupations with more intensive use of these skills – an implication of the ‘use it or lose it’ hypothesis. I look at the development over age of both measured skills and the use of skills at work in two aggregate categories of occupations: a group of high-skilled workers (ISCO...... major ocupations from 0 to 4) and a group of low-skilled workers (ISCO major occupations from 5 to 9). High-skilled workers have higher measured skills than low-skilled workers and high-skilled workers use skills more at work than low-skilled workers. Measured skills decline from the age of 35 both...

  9. Anger management style, opioid analgesic use, and chronic pain severity: a test of the opioid-deficit hypothesis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burns, John W; Bruehl, Stephen

    2005-12-01

    Anger management style is related to both acute and chronic pain. Recent research suggests that individuals who predominantly express anger (anger-out) may report heightened chronic pain severity due in part to endogenous opioid antinociceptive dysfunction. If exogenous opioids serve to remediate opioid deficits, we predicted that regular use of opioid analgesics by chronic pain patients would alter these relationships such that anger-out would be related to chronic pain severity only among opioid-free patients. For 136 chronic pain patients, anger management style, depression, anxiety, pain severity, and use of opioid and antidepressant medication was assessed. Results of hierarchical multiple regressions to predict chronic pain severity showed: (a) a significant Anger-out x Opioid use interaction such that high Anger-out was associated with high pain severity only among patients not taking opioids; (b) controlling for depressed affect and anxiety did not affect this association; (c) the Anger-out x Antidepressant use interaction was nonsignificant; (d) Anger-in did not interact with use of any medication to affect pain severity. Results are consistent with an opioid-deficit hypothesis and suggest that regular use of opioid medications by patients high in anger expression may compensate for an endogenous opioid deficit, and mitigate the effects of elevated anger expression on chronic pain intensity.

  10. The phylogeographical history of the Iberian steppe plant Ferula loscosii (Apiaceae): a test of the abundant-centre hypothesis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pérez-Collazos, E; Sanchez-Gómez, P; Jiménez, F; Catalán, P

    2009-03-01

    The geology and climate of the western Mediterranean area were strongly modified during the Late Tertiary and the Quaternary. These geological and climatic events are thought to have induced changes in the population histories of plants in the Iberian Peninsula. However, fine-scale genetic spatial architecture across western Mediterranean steppe plant refugia has rarely been investigated. A population genetic analysis of amplified fragment length polymorphism variation was conducted on present-day, relict populations of Ferula loscosii (Apiaceae). This species exhibits high individual/population numbers in the middle Ebro river valley and, according to the hypothesis of an abundant-centre distribution, these northern populations might represent a long-standing/ancestral distribution centre. However, our results suggest that the decimated southern and central Iberian populations are more variable and structured than the northeastern ones, representing the likely vestiges of an ancestral distribution centre of the species. Phylogeographical analysis suggests that F. loscosii likely originated in southern Spain and then migrated towards the central and northeastern ranges, further supporting a Late Miocene southern-bound Mediterranean migratory way for its oriental steppe ancestors. In addition, different glacial-induced conditions affected the southern and northern steppe Iberian refugia during the Quaternary. The contrasting genetic homogeneity of the Ebro valley range populations compared to the southern Iberian ones possibly reflects more severe bottlenecks and subsequent genetic drift experienced by populations of the northern Iberia refugium during the Pleistocene, followed by successful postglacial expansion from only a few founder plants.

  11. A simulation test approach to the evaluation and comparison of unconstrained nonlinear optimization algorithms

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hillstrom, K. E.

    1976-02-01

    A simulation test technique was developed to evaluate and compare unconstrained nonlinear optimization computer algorithms. Descriptions of the test technique, test problems, computer algorithms tested, and test results are provided. (auth)

  12. Effects of disturbance on germination and seedling establishment in a coastal prairie grassland: A test of the competitive release hypothesis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jutila, H.M.; Grace, J.B.

    2002-01-01

    1. We evaluated the responses of native grassland sods to a variety of types of disturbance in order to assess hypotheses about the competitive effects of established vegetation on seed germination and seedling establishment. In particular, we consider whether germination is more responsive to the magnitude and duration of vegetation removal (competitive release) or to individual disturbance types (specific effects). 2. Field-collected sods of coastal tallgrass prairie were subjected to no manipulation, cutting with clippings left, cutting with clippings removed (hayed), burning, and complete destruction of established vegetation under greenhouse conditions. The emergence and fate of seedlings, as well as light penetration through the canopy, were followed for a period of 4.5 months. 3. Total seedling emergence increased from cut to control, hayed, burned and plants-removed treatments. Several periods of increased seedling emergence suggested responses to both light penetration and seasonal change. 4. Species richness was lowest in cut sods and highest in sods that had plants removed or were burned. Rarefaction analysis showed that these differences were largely those expected from differences in seedling number, except for the cut treatment, which produced fewer species per seedling than other treatments. 5. Indicator species analysis and ordination methods revealed that seedling community composition overlapped strongly across all treatments, although the area of ordination space did increase with increasing numbers of seedlings. 6. Overall, most of the effects of disturbance could be explained by cumulative light penetration to the soil surface, an indicator of total competitive release, although a few specific effects could be found (particularly for the cutting treatment). Thus, these results generally support the competitive release hypothesis.

  13. Testing the ecomorphological hypothesis in a headwater riffles fish assemblage of the rio São Francisco, southeastern Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lilian Casatti

    ecological data about the analyzed fish species in their natural environment seems to be strong evidence in favor of the proposed predictive capabilities of the ecomorphological hypothesis.

  14. MELT RATE FURNACE TESTING FOR SLUDGE BATCH 5 FRIT OPTIMIZATION

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Miller, D; Fox, K; Pickenheim, B; Stone, M

    2008-10-03

    Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) was requested to provide the Defense Waste Processing Facility (DWPF) with a frit composition for Sludge Batch 5 (SB5) to optimize processing. A series of experiments were designed for testing in the Melt Rate Furnace (MRF). This dry fed tool can be used to quickly determine relative melt rates for a large number of candidate frit compositions and lead to a selection for further testing. Simulated Sludge Receipt and Adjustment Tank (SRAT) product was made according to the most recent SB5 sludge projections and a series of tests were conducted with frits that covered a range of boron and alkali ratios. Several frits with relatively large projected operating windows indicated melt rates that would not severely impact production. As seen with previous MRF testing, increasing the boron concentration had positive impacts on melt rate on the SB5 system. However, there appears to be maximum values for both boron and sodium above which the there is a negative effect on melt rate. Based on these data and compositional trends, Frit 418 and a specially designed frit (Frit 550) have been selected for additional melt rate testing. Frit 418 and Frit 550 will be run in the Slurry Fed Melt Rate Furnace (SMRF), which is capable of distinguishing rheological properties not detected by the MRF. Frit 418 will be used initially for SB5 processing in DWPF (given its robustness to compositional uncertainty). The Frit 418-SB5 system will provide a baseline from which potential melt rate advantages of Frit 550 can be gauged. The data from SMRF testing will be used to determine whether Frit 550 should be recommended for implementation in DWPF.

  15. Statistical Hypothesis Testing using CNN Features for Synthesis of Adversarial Counterexamples to Human and Object Detection Vision Systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Raj, Sunny [Univ. of Central Florida, Orlando, FL (United States); Jha, Sumit Kumar [Univ. of Central Florida, Orlando, FL (United States); Pullum, Laura L. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Ramanathan, Arvind [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

    2017-05-01

    Validating the correctness of human detection vision systems is crucial for safety applications such as pedestrian collision avoidance in autonomous vehicles. The enormous space of possible inputs to such an intelligent system makes it difficult to design test cases for such systems. In this report, we present our tool MAYA that uses an error model derived from a convolutional neural network (CNN) to explore the space of images similar to a given input image, and then tests the correctness of a given human or object detection system on such perturbed images. We demonstrate the capability of our tool on the pre-trained Histogram-of-Oriented-Gradients (HOG) human detection algorithm implemented in the popular OpenCV toolset and the Caffe object detection system pre-trained on the ImageNet benchmark. Our tool may serve as a testing resource for the designers of intelligent human and object detection systems.

  16. Ostracoda (Arthropoda, Crustacea) in a Miocene oxygen minimum zone, Trinidad, West Indies: A test of the Platycopid Signal Hypothesis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Brent; Coimbra, João C.; Hayek, Lee-Ann C.

    2014-10-01

    Studies of Recent ostracodes around the area of South America shed little light on the paleoenvironmental interpretation of Miocene assemblages. Consequently, interpretations of the Miocene ostracode assemblages must be supplemented using evidence from better documented taxa. Benthic foraminifera in samples from the Lower to Middle Miocene Brasso Formation at Brasso Village, Trinidad, have previously been used to distinguish three sample groupings (Beneath, Within and Above) around an oxygen minimum zone (OMZ), this being a layer of water within which dissolved oxygen concentrations can be as low as 0.1-1.0 mL/L. Using these same samples and the foraminiferal assemblage demarcations relative to the OMZ, this paper examines the associated and rich ostracode fauna of the Brasso Formation. The mean recovery of ostracode valves per sample was approximately three times greater in the Within OMZ sample group than in either of the Beneath OMZ or Above OMZ groups, perhaps reflecting the exclusion of macro-predators from within the OMZ. Individual rarefaction of species richness S to N = 300 valves was conducted for each sample group. This showed that S did not differ between the sample groups, ranging from 22.4 to 24.8. We used all ostracode species to model group separation. Based upon the Mahalanobis' criterion, we obtained significant group separation using a model with four taxa: Munseyella ex gr. minuta, Argilloecia posterotruncata, Munseyella sp. and Xestoleberis sp., while a fifth, Argilloecia spp., provided a significant but minor increase in separation probabilities over all groups. The two most abundant species (Bradleya sp., Gangamocytheridea reticulata) were thus not the best species for detecting the OMZ. Platycopid ostracodes of the genus Cytherella were found throughout the section, rather than concentrated within the OMZ, which contradicts the Platycopid Signal Hypothesis that OMZs are characterized by platycopid dominance. The total distribution and

  17. Does the Modality Principle Hold for Different Media?: A Test of the Method-Affects-Learning Hypothesis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moreno, R.

    2006-01-01

    Does the modality of instructional messages affect learning? How does it affect different media? In this paper, I offer an answer to these questions by first proposing a theoretical framework from which effective instructional methods can be derived. Then, I report a set of studies where one method, the modality principle, was tested across…

  18. Phenotypic plasticity of hermaphrodite sex allocation promotes the evolution of separate sexes: an experimental test of the sex-differential plasticity hypothesis using Sagittaria latifolia (Alismataceae).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dorken, Marcel E; Mitchard, Edward T A

    2008-04-01

    Separate sexes can evolve under nuclear inheritance when unisexuals have more than twice the reproductive fitness of hermaphrodites through one sex function (e.g., when females have more than twice the seed fertility of hermaphrodites). Because separate sexes are thought to evolve most commonly via a gynodioecious intermediate (i.e., populations in which females and hermaphrodites cooccur), the conditions under which females can become established in populations of hermaphrodites are of considerable interest. It has been proposed that resource-poor conditions could promote the establishment of females if hermaphrodites are plastic in their sex allocation and allocate fewer resources to seed production under these conditions. If this occurs, the seed fertility of females could exceed the doubling required for the evolution of unisexuality under low-, but not high-resource conditions (the sex-differential plasticity hypothesis). We tested this hypothesis using replicate experimental arrays of the aquatic herb Sagittaria latifolia grown under two fertilizer treatments. The results supported the sex-differential plasticity hypothesis, with females having more than twice the seed fertility of hermaphrodites under low-, but not high-fertilizer conditions. Our findings are consistent with the idea that separate sexes are more likely to evolve under unfavorable conditions.

  19. Testing of Frank's hypothesis on a containerless packing of macroscopic soft spheres and comparison with mono-atomic metallic liquids

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sahu, K.K., E-mail: kisor.sahu@mat.ethz.ch [Laboratory of Metal Physics and Technology, Department of Materials, ETH Zurich, 8093 Zurich (Switzerland); Wessels, V. [Laboratory of Metal Physics and Technology, Department of Materials, ETH Zurich, 8093 Zurich (Switzerland); Kelton, K.F. [Department of Physics, Washington University, St. Louis, Missouri 63130 (United States); Loeffler, J.F. [Laboratory of Metal Physics and Technology, Department of Materials, ETH Zurich, 8093 Zurich (Switzerland)

    2011-06-15

    Highlights: > Testing of Frank's hypothesis for Centripetal Packing (CP) has been proposed. > It is shown that CP is an idealized model for Monatomic Supercooled Liquid (MSL). > The CP is fit for comparing with studies on MSL in a containerless environment. > We measure local orders in CP by HA and BOO methods for the first time. > It is shown that icosahedral order is greater in CP than MSL and reasons explored. - Abstract: It is well-known that metallic liquids can exist below their equilibrium melting temperature for a considerable time. To explain this, Frank proposed that icosahedral ordering, incompatible with crystalline long-range order, is prevalent in the atomic structure of these liquids, stabilizing them and enabling them to be supercooled. Some studies of the atomic structures of metallic liquids using Beam-line Electrostatic Levitation (BESL; containerless melting), and other techniques, support this hypothesis . Here we examine Frank's hypothesis in a system of macroscopic, monodisperse deformable spheres obtained by containerless packing under the influence of centripetal force. The local structure of this packing is analyzed and compared with atomic ensembles of liquid transition metals obtained by containerless melting using the BESL method.

  20. Testing the Fair Game Hypothesis for US Dollar/Albanian Lekë Exchange Rate Over the Period January 1994- December 2012

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Llambrini Sota

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of the paperis to test the fair game hypothesis for exchange rate process USDollar / Albanian Lekë over theperiod January 1994 – December 2012.The results of this study include: The fairgame hypothesis is rejected for mean monthlyexchange rate US Dollar/Albanian Lekë over the period January 1994 – December 2012at 99.99% level of confidence. Day – to –dayfluctuations of the nominal exchange rateUS Dollar/ Albanian Lekë during the period 1 January 2008 – 31 December 2008 followan unfair game process at99.99% level of confidence.The fair game hypothesis isrejected for mean monthly exchange rateover the period January 2008 – December 2012at 95% level of confidence. Day – to-day fluctuations of nominalexchange rate USDollar/Albanian Lekë during the period1 January 2004 – 31 December 2012 follow anunfair game at 99.99% levelof confidence. A similar result holds for relative firstdifferences of the daily exchange rate USDollar/Albanian Lekëat 99.99% level ofconfidence. These findings are noteworthy because it has long been thought of that themovements in the US dollar / Albanian lekë nominal exchange rate must be a fair game.