Operational risk and e-banking

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Şerbu, R.

2010-12-01

Full Text Available Banking involves a variety of risks. Under Basel II, the main risks are the monitored credit risk, market risk and operational risk. Frequently, operational risks are underestimated, considering that they would not affect the optimal activity of a bank. However, past experience of some credit institutions have shown that operational risk is an important cause of financial losses in the banking sector. Operational risk is generated by a complex of factors that manifests primarily as a result of direct customer interaction with the credit institution. In this context, the provision of e-banking services reduces direct contact with bank customers and thus reduces potential losses arising from operational risk. In sum, we consider it necessary to be aware of the link between operational risk and e-banking services promoted by banks and of the importance of this connection especially in a financial environment affected by the financial crisis.

A probabilistic risk assessment of the LLNL Plutonium facility's evaluation basis fire operational accident

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brumburgh, G.

1994-01-01

The Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) Plutonium Facility conducts numerous involving plutonium to include device fabrication, development of fabrication techniques, metallurgy research, and laser isotope separation. A Safety Analysis Report (SAR) for the building 332 Plutonium Facility was completed rational safety and acceptable risk to employees, the public, government property, and the environment. This paper outlines the PRA analysis of the Evaluation Basis Fire (EDF) operational accident. The EBF postulates the worst-case programmatic impact event for the Plutonium Facility

Risk-Aware Planetary Rover Operation: Autonomous Terrain Classification and Path Planning

Science.gov (United States)

Ono, Masahiro; Fuchs, Thoams J.; Steffy, Amanda; Maimone, Mark; Yen, Jeng

2015-01-01

Identifying and avoiding terrain hazards (e.g., soft soil and pointy embedded rocks) are crucial for the safety of planetary rovers. This paper presents a newly developed groundbased Mars rover operation tool that mitigates risks from terrain by automatically identifying hazards on the terrain, evaluating their risks, and suggesting operators safe paths options that avoids potential risks while achieving specified goals. The tool will bring benefits to rover operations by reducing operation cost, by reducing cognitive load of rover operators, by preventing human errors, and most importantly, by significantly reducing the risk of the loss of rovers.

A probabilistic risk assessment of the LLNL Plutonium Facility's evaluation basis fire operational accident. Revision 1

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brumburgh, G.P.

1995-01-01

The Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) Plutonium Facility conducts numerous programmatic activities involving plutonium to include device fabrication, development of improved and/or unique fabrication techniques, metallurgy research, and laser isotope separation. A Safety Analysis Report (SAR) for the building 332 Plutonium Facility was completed in July 1994 to address operational safety and acceptable risk to employees, the public, government property, and the environmental. This paper outlines the PRA analysis of the Evaluation Basis Fire (EBF) operational accident. The EBF postulates the worst-case programmatic impact event for the Plutonium Facility

Prospective evaluation of stress myocardial perfusion imaging for pre-operative cardiac risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Byrne, A.J.; Rowe, C.C.; Flannery, G.

2002-01-01

Full text: A prospective evaluation of patients who underwent stress myocardial perfusion imaging (MPI) to assess preoperative cardiac risk was undertaken. At the time of the scan patients were classified into 4 Clinical Risk groups (CR) based on known clinical data. On completion of the scan, the patient was then categorised into 4 Scan based Risk groups (SR), incorporating size of perfusion deficit, single versus multi-vessel disease and ejection fraction. Surgery at Austin and Repatriation Medical Centre within 6 months of scan and complications were identified using the hospital medical database. Major early cardiac events coded were death (cardiac related), myocardial infarction, unstable angina, acute pulmonary oedema, cardiac arrest, and urgent revascularisation. 208 patients have reached 6 months post-MPI scan. Of these 119 (57%) were identified as having surgery. Of the Scan Risk groups, 63% of normal, 57% of increased, and 47% of high and very high groups have had surgery. An abnormal scan is associated with a three-fold risk of cardiac complication (3.5% vs 11.3%). This is lower than most previous reports and may be due to higher representation of low risk surgical procedures (14% in this series), improved peri-operative care and/or the test result influence on management (suggested by decreasing surgical rate as SR estimate rose). Copyright (2002) The Australian and New Zealand Society of Nuclear Medicine Inc

Enterprise risk management in international construction operations

CERN Document Server

Zhao, Xianbo; Low, Sui Pheng

2015-01-01

This book provides readers an understanding of the implementation of Enterprise Risk Management (ERM) for international construction operations. In an extended case study, it primarily focuses on Chinese construction firms (CCFs) based in Singapore. In this regard, the book explains the differences and similarities between Risk Management (RM), Project Risk Management (PRM) and ERM in the construction industry, and examines their linkages for international construction operations in a broader context. The explanation elaborates on how companies may adopt and implement RM, PRM and ERM as appropriate in their various operations, both in their home market as well as in overseas host markets. The book also reviews the whole spectrum of work relating to organizational behavior (OB) as one of the key underpinnings for companies to evaluate and implement ERM. It will benefit practitioners from the industry as well as academics interested in the implementation of ERM practices in international construction operat...

A Scalable Distribution Network Risk Evaluation Framework via Symbolic Dynamics

Science.gov (United States)

Yuan, Kai; Liu, Jian; Liu, Kaipei; Tan, Tianyuan

2015-01-01

Background Evaluations of electric power distribution network risks must address the problems of incomplete information and changing dynamics. A risk evaluation framework should be adaptable to a specific situation and an evolving understanding of risk. Methods This study investigates the use of symbolic dynamics to abstract raw data. After introducing symbolic dynamics operators, Kolmogorov-Sinai entropy and Kullback-Leibler relative entropy are used to quantitatively evaluate relationships between risk sub-factors and main factors. For layered risk indicators, where the factors are categorized into four main factors – device, structure, load and special operation – a merging algorithm using operators to calculate the risk factors is discussed. Finally, an example from the Sanya Power Company is given to demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed method. Conclusion Distribution networks are exposed and can be affected by many things. The topology and the operating mode of a distribution network are dynamic, so the faults and their consequences are probabilistic. PMID:25789859

Safety evaluation by living probabilistic safety assessment. Procedures and applications for planning of operational activities and analysis of operating experience

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Johanson, Gunnar; Holmberg, J.

1994-01-01

Living Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) is a daily safety management system and it is based on a plant-specific PSA and supporting information systems. In the living use of PSA, plant status knowledge is used to represent actual plant safety status in monitoring or follow-up perspective. The PSA model must be able to express the risk at a given time and plant configuration. The process, to update the PSA model to represent the current or planned configuration and to use the model to evaluate and direct the changes in the configuration, is called living PSA programme. The main purposes to develop and increase the usefulness of living PSA are: Long term safety planning: To continue the risk assessment process started with the basic PSA by extending and improving the basic models and data to provide a general risk evaluation tool for analyzing the safety effects of changes in plant design and procedures. Risk planning of operational activities: To support the operational management by providing means for searching optimal operational maintenance and testing strategies from the safety point of view. The results provide support for risk decision making in the short term or in a planning mode. The operational limits and conditions given by technical specifications can be analyzed by evaluating the risk effects of alternative requirements in order to balance the requirements with respect to operational flexibility and plant economy. Risk analysis of operating experience: To provide a general risk evaluation tool for analyzing the safety effects of incidents and plant status changes. The analyses are used to: identify possible high risk situations, rank the occurred events from safety point of view, and get feedback from operational events for the identification of risk contributors. This report describes the methods, models and applications required to continue the process towards a living use of PSA. 19 tabs, 20 figs

Qualitative risk assessment for the 100-NR-2 Operable Unit. Revision 1

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1995-03-01

This qualitative risk assessment provides information about the 100- NR-2 Groundwater Operable Unit of the Hanford reservation. Topics discussed in this report are: data evaluation; human health risk assessment overview; ecological evaluations; summary of uncertainty; results of both the ecological and human health evaluations; toxicity assessment; risk characterization; and a summary of contaminants of potential concern

A study on risk perception toward nuclear power operation in Taiwan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee Ciao-tzu; Hu Shiang-ling; Chang, Wushou P.

2000-01-01

Currently, more conflicts appear between the public and government over the establishment of the 4th nuclear power plant in Taiwan. In order to improve risk management by the Society, understanding the risk perception of the public will be essential. A pilot study on the risk perception toward nuclear power operation and other current risks was conducted in summer of 1999. In addition to perception towards nuclear power operation, the survey evaluated several dimensions of health-related risks including smoking, chemical wastes, nuclear wastes, air transportation, AIDS, and food intoxication. The questionnaire was designed to be proceeded under systemic instruction and followed with self-filling. 57 (85.1%) of 67 respondents worked at the Taipei Metropolitan Rapid Transportation, including 62 male subjects (92.5%). 44 (69.8%) respondents favored building the 4th nuclear power plant in Taiwan. The acceptable distance between their houses and the nuclear power plant was 145.13 km in average, as compared with 400 km that of North and South of Taiwan. The mean expenses they are willing to pay to reduce the risk of the NPP is about US $7.73, 0.56% of their average income. However, the levels of risks toward nuclear power operation is significant higher than these for air transportation, smoking, and food intoxication. Government's spending is assumed more effective to reduce the threats from risks of nuclear power operation, rather than professional's or experts' effects. Besides, other related factors include levels of involuntary exposure to NP operation (p<0.001) and number of people potentially in danger (p<0.001). These 2 altitudes are positively correlated with the respondents' perceived risks. Different attitudes toward NP operation within these engineers, and those evaluated by others, are of great interest. Further evaluation will be conducted to compare the mechanism involved. We gratefully acknowledge financial support from the National Science Council

A study on risk perception toward nuclear power operation in Taiwan

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lee Ciao-tzu; Hu Shiang-ling; Chang, Wushou P. [National Yang-Ming University, Taiwan (China)

2000-05-01

Currently, more conflicts appear between the public and government over the establishment of the 4th nuclear power plant in Taiwan. In order to improve risk management by the Society, understanding the risk perception of the public will be essential. A pilot study on the risk perception toward nuclear power operation and other current risks was conducted in summer of 1999. In addition to perception towards nuclear power operation, the survey evaluated several dimensions of health-related risks including smoking, chemical wastes, nuclear wastes, air transportation, AIDS, and food intoxication. The questionnaire was designed to be proceeded under systemic instruction and followed with self-filling. 57 (85.1%) of 67 respondents worked at the Taipei Metropolitan Rapid Transportation, including 62 male subjects (92.5%). 44 (69.8%) respondents favored building the 4th nuclear power plant in Taiwan. The acceptable distance between their houses and the nuclear power plant was 145.13 km in average, as compared with 400 km that of North and South of Taiwan. The mean expenses they are willing to pay to reduce the risk of the NPP is about US $7.73, 0.56% of their average income. However, the levels of risks toward nuclear power operation is significant higher than these for air transportation, smoking, and food intoxication. Government's spending is assumed more effective to reduce the threats from risks of nuclear power operation, rather than professional's or experts' effects. Besides, other related factors include levels of involuntary exposure to NP operation (p<0.001) and number of people potentially in danger (p<0.001). These 2 altitudes are positively correlated with the respondents' perceived risks. Different attitudes toward NP operation within these engineers, and those evaluated by others, are of great interest. Further evaluation will be conducted to compare the mechanism involved. We gratefully acknowledge financial support from the National

Qualitative risk assessment for the 100-HR-3 groundwater operable unit

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Vukelich, S.E. [Golder Associates, Inc., Richland, WA (United States)

1994-09-22

This report provides the qualitative risk assessment for the 100-HR-3 operable unit on the Hanford Reservation. 100-HR-3 is a ground water unit. The purpose of the QRA at the 100-HR-3 operable unit is to focus on a predefined set of human and environmental exposure scenarios in order to provides sufficient information that will assist the Tri-Party signatories (Washington State Department of Ecology, EPA and US DOE) in making defensible decisions on the necessity of Interim Remedial Measures. Frequent- and occasional-use exposure scenarios are evaluated in the human health risk assessment to provide bounding estimates of risk. The ecological risk assessment consists of an evaluation of the risks to riparian and aquatic receptors which live in or near the Columbia River.

Qualitative risk assessment for the 100-HR-3 groundwater operable unit

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vukelich, S.E.

1994-01-01

This report provides the qualitative risk assessment for the 100-HR-3 operable unit on the Hanford Reservation. 100-HR-3 is a ground water unit. The purpose of the QRA at the 100-HR-3 operable unit is to focus on a predefined set of human and environmental exposure scenarios in order to provides sufficient information that will assist the Tri-Party signatories (Washington State Department of Ecology, EPA and US DOE) in making defensible decisions on the necessity of Interim Remedial Measures. Frequent- and occasional-use exposure scenarios are evaluated in the human health risk assessment to provide bounding estimates of risk. The ecological risk assessment consists of an evaluation of the risks to riparian and aquatic receptors which live in or near the Columbia River

Controlling operational risk: Concepts and practices

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van den Tillaart, A.H.A.J.

2003-01-01

The subject of this thesis is controlling 'operational risk' in banks. Operational risk is defined as the risk of losses resulting from inadequate or failed internal processes, people, systems, or from external events. Within this very broad subject, we focus on the place of operational risk

Assessing reservoir operations risk under climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Brekke, L.D.; Maurer, E.P.; Anderson, J.D.; Dettinger, M.D.; Townsley, E.S.; Harrison, A.; Pruitt, T.

2009-01-01

Risk-based planning offers a robust way to identify strategies that permit adaptive water resources management under climate change. This paper presents a flexible methodology for conducting climate change risk assessments involving reservoir operations. Decision makers can apply this methodology to their systems by selecting future periods and risk metrics relevant to their planning questions and by collectively evaluating system impacts relative to an ensemble of climate projection scenarios (weighted or not). This paper shows multiple applications of this methodology in a case study involving California's Central Valley Project and State Water Project systems. Multiple applications were conducted to show how choices made in conducting the risk assessment, choices known as analytical design decisions, can affect assessed risk. Specifically, risk was reanalyzed for every choice combination of two design decisions: (1) whether to assume climate change will influence flood-control constraints on water supply operations (and how), and (2) whether to weight climate change scenarios (and how). Results show that assessed risk would motivate different planning pathways depending on decision-maker attitudes toward risk (e.g., risk neutral versus risk averse). Results also show that assessed risk at a given risk attitude is sensitive to the analytical design choices listed above, with the choice of whether to adjust flood-control rules under climate change having considerably more influence than the choice on whether to weight climate scenarios. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.

IT Operational Risk Measurement Model Based on Internal Loss Data of Banks

Science.gov (United States)

Hao, Xiaoling

Business operation of banks relies increasingly on information technology (IT) and the most important role of IT is to guarantee the operational continuity of business process. Therefore, IT Risk management efforts need to be seen from the perspective of operational continuity. Traditional IT risk studies focused on IT asset-based risk analysis and risk-matrix based qualitative risk evaluation. In practice, IT risk management practices of banking industry are still limited to the IT department and aren't integrated into business risk management, which causes the two departments to work in isolation. This paper presents an improved methodology for dealing with IT operational risk. It adopts quantitative measurement method, based on the internal business loss data about IT events, and uses Monte Carlo simulation to predict the potential losses. We establish the correlation between the IT resources and business processes to make sure risk management of IT and business can work synergistically.

Study of operational risk-based configuration control

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Vesely, W E [Science Applications International Corp., Dublin, OH (United States); Samanta, P K; Kim, I S [Brookhaven National Lab., Upton, NY (United States)

1991-08-01

This report studies aspects of a risk-based configuration control system to detect and control plant configurations from a risk perspective. Configuration control, as the term is used here, is the management of component configurations to achieve specific objectives. One important objective is to control risk and safety. Another is to operate efficiently and make effective use of available resources. PSA-based evaluations are performed to study configuration to core-melt frequency and core-melt probability for two plants. Some equipment configurations can cause large core-melt frequency and there are a number of such configurations that are not currently controlled by technical specifications. However, the expected frequency of occurrence of the impacting configurations is small and the core-melt probability contributions are also generally small. The insights from this evaluation are used to develop the framework for an effective risk-based configuration control system. The focal points of such a system and the requirements for tools development for implementing the system are defined. The requirements of risk models needed for the system, and the uses of plant-specific data are also discussed. 18 refs., 25 figs., 10 tabs.

Risk assessment in international operations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stricklin, Daniela L.

2008-01-01

During international peace-keeping missions, a diverse number of non-battle hazards may be encountered, which range from heavily polluted areas, endemic disease, toxic industrial materials, local violence, traffic, and even psychological factors. Hence, elevated risk levels from a variety of sources are encountered during deployments. With the emphasis within the Swedish military moving from national defense towards prioritization of international missions in atypical environments, the risk of health consequences, including long term health effects, has received greater consideration. The Swedish military is interested in designing an optimal approach for assessment of health threats during deployments. The Medical Intelligence group at FOI CBRN Security and Defence in Umea has, on request from and in collaboration with the Swedish Armed Forces, reviewed a variety of international health threat and risk assessment models for military operations. Application of risk assessment methods used in different phases of military operations will be reviewed. An overview of different international approaches used in operational risk management (ORM) will be presented as well as a discussion of the specific needs and constraints for health risk assessment in military operations. This work highlights the specific challenges of risk assessment that are unique to the deployment setting such as the assessment of exposures to a variety of diverse hazards concurrently

Risk Analysis for Unintentional Slide Deployment During Airline Operations.

Science.gov (United States)

Ayra, Eduardo S; Insua, David Ríos; Castellanos, María Eugenia; Larbi, Lydia

2015-09-01

We present a risk analysis undertaken to mitigate problems in relation to the unintended deployment of slides under normal operations within a commercial airline. This type of incident entails relevant costs for the airline industry. After assessing the likelihood and severity of its consequences, we conclude that such risks need to be managed. We then evaluate the effectiveness of various countermeasures, describing and justifying the chosen ones. We also discuss several issues faced when implementing and communicating the proposed measures, thus fully illustrating the risk analysis process. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

Evaluating risk management strategies in resource planning

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Andrews, C.J.

1995-01-01

This paper discusses the evaluation of risk management strategies as a part of integrated resource planning. Value- and scope-related uncertainties can be addressed during the process of planning, but uncertainties in the operating environment require technical analysis within planning models. Flexibility and robustness are two key classes of strategies for managing the risk posed by these uncertainties. This paper reviews standard capacity expansion planning models and shows that they are poorly equipped to compare risk management strategies. Those that acknowledge uncertainty are better at evaluating robustness than flexibility, which implies a bias against flexible options. Techniques are available to overcome this bias

Qualitative risk assessment for the 100-KR-4 groundwater operable unit

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Biggerstaff, R.L.

1994-06-30

This report provides the qualitative risk assessment (QRA) for the 100-KR-4 groundwater operable unit at the US Department of Energy`s (DOE) Hanford Site in southeastern Washington State. The extent of the groundwater beneath the 100 K Area is defined in the Remedial Investigation/Feasibility Study Work Plan for the 100-KR-4 Operable Unit (DOE-RL 1992a). The QRA is an evaluation or risk using a limited amount of data and a predefined set of human and environmental exposure scenarios and is not intended to replace or be a substitute for a baseline risk assessment.

Qualitative risk assessment for the 100-KR-4 groundwater operable unit

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Biggerstaff, R.L.

1994-01-01

This report provides the qualitative risk assessment (QRA) for the 100-KR-4 groundwater operable unit at the US Department of Energy's (DOE) Hanford Site in southeastern Washington State. The extent of the groundwater beneath the 100 K Area is defined in the Remedial Investigation/Feasibility Study Work Plan for the 100-KR-4 Operable Unit (DOE-RL 1992a). The QRA is an evaluation or risk using a limited amount of data and a predefined set of human and environmental exposure scenarios and is not intended to replace or be a substitute for a baseline risk assessment

Reliability evaluation of a port oil transportation system in variable operation conditions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Soszynska, Joanna

2006-01-01

The semi-Markov model of the system operation processes is proposed and its selected parameters are determined. The series 'm out of k n ' multi-state system is considered and its reliability and risk characteristics are found. Next, the joint model of the system operation process and the system multi-state reliability and risk is constructed. Moreover, reliability and risk evaluation of the multi-state series 'm out of k n ' system in its operation process is applied to the port oil transportation system

Qualitative techniques for managing operational risk

OpenAIRE

Delfiner, Miguel; Pailhé, Cristina

2009-01-01

Qualitative techniques are essential tools for identifying and assessing operational risk (OR). Their relevance in assessing OR can be understood due to the lack of a quantitative static model capable of capturing the dynamic operational risk profile which is shaped by managerial decisions. An operational risk profile obtained solely from historical loss data could further change due to corrective actions implemented by the bank after the occurrence of those events. This document introduces s...

The construction of power grid operation index system considering the risk of maintenance

Science.gov (United States)

Tang, Jihong; Wang, Canlin; Jiang, Xinfan; Ye, Jianhui; Pan, Feilai

2018-02-01

In recent years, large-scale blackout occurred at home and abroad caused widespread concern about the operation of the grid in the world, and the maintenance risk is an important indicator of grid safety. The barrier operation of the circuit breaker exists in the process of overhaul of the power grid. The operation of the different barrier is of great significance to the change of the power flow, thus affecting the safe operation of the system. Most of the grid operating status evaluation index system did not consider the risk of maintenance, to this end, this paper from the security, economy, quality and cleanliness of the four angles, build the power grid operation index system considering the risk of maintenance.

Defining the Intrinsic Cardiac Risks of Operations to Improve Preoperative Cardiac Risk Assessments.

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Jason B; Liu, Yaoming; Cohen, Mark E; Ko, Clifford Y; Sweitzer, Bobbie J

2018-02-01

Current preoperative cardiac risk stratification practices group operations into broad categories, which might inadequately consider the intrinsic cardiac risks of individual operations. We sought to define the intrinsic cardiac risks of individual operations and to demonstrate how grouping operations might lead to imprecise estimates of perioperative cardiac risk. Elective operations (based on Common Procedural Terminology codes) performed from January 1, 2010 to December 31, 2015 at hospitals participating in the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program were studied. A composite measure of perioperative adverse cardiac events was defined as either cardiac arrest requiring cardiopulmonary resuscitation or acute myocardial infarction. Operations' intrinsic cardiac risks were derived from mixed-effects models while controlling for patient mix. Resultant risks were sorted into low-, intermediate-, and high-risk categories, and the most commonly performed operations within each category were identified. Intrinsic operative risks were also examined using a representative grouping of operations to portray within-group variation. Sixty-six low, 30 intermediate, and 106 high intrinsic cardiac risk operations were identified. Excisional breast biopsy had the lowest intrinsic cardiac risk (overall rate, 0.01%; odds ratio, 0.11; 95% CI, 0.02 to 0.25) relative to the average, whereas aorto-bifemoral bypass grafting had the highest (overall rate, 4.1%; odds ratio, 6.61; 95% CI, 5.54 to 7.90). There was wide variation in the intrinsic cardiac risks of operations within the representative grouping (median odds ratio, 1.40; interquartile range, 0.88 to 2.17). A continuum of intrinsic cardiac risk exists among operations. Grouping operations into broad categories inadequately accounts for the intrinsic cardiac risk of individual operations.

Risk Assessment for Bridges Safety Management during Operation Based on Fuzzy Clustering Algorithm

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xia Hanyu

2016-01-01

Full Text Available In recent years, large span and large sea-crossing bridges are built, bridges accidents caused by improper operational management occur frequently. In order to explore the better methods for risk assessment of the bridges operation departments, the method based on fuzzy clustering algorithm is selected. Then, the implementation steps of fuzzy clustering algorithm are described, the risk evaluation system is built, and Taizhou Bridge is selected as an example, the quantitation of risk factors is described. After that, the clustering algorithm based on fuzzy equivalence is calculated on MATLAB 2010a. In the last, Taizhou Bridge operation management departments are classified and sorted according to the degree of risk, and the safety situation of operation departments is analyzed.

The development and application of dynamic operational risk assessment in oil/gas and chemical process industry

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yang Xiaole; Mannan, M. Sam

2010-01-01

A methodology of dynamic operational risk assessment (DORA) is proposed for operational risk analysis in oil/gas and chemical industries. The methodology is introduced comprehensively starting from the conceptual framework design to mathematical modeling and to decision making based on cost-benefit analysis. The probabilistic modeling part of DORA integrates stochastic modeling and process dynamics modeling to evaluate operational risk. The stochastic system-state trajectory is modeled according to the abnormal behavior or failure of each component. For each of the possible system-state trajectories, a process dynamics evaluation is carried out to check whether process variables, e.g., level, flow rate, temperature, pressure, or chemical concentration, remain in their desirable regions. Component testing/inspection intervals and repair times are critical parameters to define the system-state configuration, and play an important role for evaluating the probability of operational failure. This methodology not only provides a framework to evaluate the dynamic operational risk in oil/gas and chemical industries, but also guides the process design and further optimization. To illustrate the probabilistic study, we present a case-study of a level control in an oil/gas separator at an offshore plant.

DEVELOPMENT OF A RISK SCREENING METHOD FOR CREDITED OPERATOR ACTIONS

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

HIGGINS, J.C.; O'HARA, J.M.; LEWIS, P.M.; PERSENSKY, J.; BONGARRA, J.

2002-01-01

DEVELOPMENT OF A RISK SCREENING METHOD FOR CREDITED OPERATOR ACTIONS. THE U.S. NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION (NRC) REVIEWS THE HUMAN FACTORS ASPECTS OF PROPOSED LICENSE AMENDMENTS THAT IMPACT HUMAN ACTIONS THAT ARE CREDITED IN A PLANTS SAFETY ANALYSIS. THE STAFF IS COMMITTED TO A GRADED APPROACH TO THESE REVIEWS THAT FOCUS RESOURCES ON THE MOST RISK IMPORTANT CHANGES. THEREFORE, A RISK INFORMED SCREENING METHOD WAS DEVELOPED BASED ON AN ADAPTATION OF EXISTING GUIDANCE FOR RISK INFORMED REGULATION AND HUMAN FACTORS. THE METHOD USES BOTH QUANTITATIVE AND QUALITATIVE INFORMATION TO DIVIDE THE AMENDMENT REQUESTS INTO DIFFERENT LEVELS OF REVIEW. THE METHOD WAS EVALUATED USING A VARIETY OF TESTS. THIS PAPER WILL SUMMARIZE THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE METHODOLOGY AND THE EVALUATIONS THAT WERE PERFORMED TO VERIFY ITS USEFULNESS

Reliability evaluation of a port oil transportation system in variable operation conditions

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Soszynska, Joanna [Department of Mathematics, Gdynia Maritime University, ul. Morska 83, 81-225 Gdynia (Poland)]. E-mail: joannas@am.gdynia.pl

2006-04-15

The semi-Markov model of the system operation processes is proposed and its selected parameters are determined. The series 'm out of k {sub n}' multi-state system is considered and its reliability and risk characteristics are found. Next, the joint model of the system operation process and the system multi-state reliability and risk is constructed. Moreover, reliability and risk evaluation of the multi-state series 'm out of k {sub n}' system in its operation process is applied to the port oil transportation system.

Risk analysis of releases from accidents during mid-loop operation at Surry

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jo, J.; Lin, C.C.; Nimnual, S.; Mubayi, V.; Neymotin, L.

1992-11-01

Studies and operating experience suggest that the risk of severe accidents during low power operation and/or shutdown (LP/S) conditions could be a significant fraction of the risk at full power operation. Two studies have begun at the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) to evaluate the severe accident progression from a risk perspective during these conditions: One at the Brookhaven National Laboratory for the Surry plant, a pressurized water reactor (PWR), and the other at the Sandia National Laboratories for the Grand Gulf plant, a boiling water reactor (BWR). Each of the studies consists of three linked, but distinct, components: a Level I probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) of the initiating events, systems analysis, and accident sequences leading to core damage; a Level 2/3 analysis of accident progression, fuel damage, releases, containment performance, source term and consequences-off-site and on-site; and a detailed Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) of actions relevant to plant conditions during LP/S operations. This paper summarizes the approach taken for the Level 2/3 analysis at Surry and provides preliminary results on the risk of releases and consequences for one plant operating state, mid-loop operation, during shutdown

Modified risk evaluation method

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Udell, C.J.; Tilden, J.A.; Toyooka, R.T.

1993-08-01

The purpose of this paper is to provide a structured and cost-oriented process to determine risks associated with nuclear material and other security interests. Financial loss is a continuing concern for US Department of Energy contractors. In this paper risk is equated with uncertainty of cost impacts to material assets or human resources. The concept provides a method for assessing the effectiveness of an integrated protection system, which includes operations, safety, emergency preparedness, and safeguards and security. The concept is suitable for application to sabotage evaluations. The protection of assets is based on risk associated with cost impacts to assets and the potential for undesirable events. This will allow managers to establish protection priorities in terms of the cost and the potential for the event, given the current level of protection

A Method of Evaluating Operation of Electric Energy Meter

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Xiangqun; Li, Tianyang; Cao, Fei; Chu, Pengfei; Zhao, Xinwang; Huang, Rui; Liu, Liping; Zhang, Chenglin

2018-05-01

The existing electric energy meter rotation maintenance strategy regularly checks the electric energy meter and evaluates the state. It only considers the influence of time factors, neglects the influence of other factors, leads to the inaccuracy of the evaluation, and causes the waste of resources. In order to evaluate the running state of the electric energy meter in time, a method of the operation evaluation of the electric energy meter is proposed. The method is based on extracting the existing data acquisition system, marketing business system and metrology production scheduling platform that affect the state of energy meters, and classified into error stability, operational reliability, potential risks and other factors according to the influencing factors, based on the above basic test score, inspecting score, monitoring score, score of family defect detection. Then, according to the evaluation model according to the scoring, we evaluate electric energy meter operating state, and finally put forward the corresponding maintenance strategy of rotation.

Operational risk management for a NPP

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Scott, C.K., E-mail: KScott@AtlanticNuclear.ca [Atlantic Nuclear Services Inc., Fredericton, New Brunswick (Canada)

2013-07-01

Organizational failures are a hazard to the successful operation of a nuclear power plant. Risk reduction strategies have been developed around two themes: using an understanding of the nature and mechanism of human failures to eliminate them by modifying work processes; or, modifying human behaviour by creating a strong safety culture that overrides the tendency to fail. This paper examines the problem from the perspective of operational risk management. It includes the internal management of operations and the influence of the external environment on the organization. A model is proposed that encompasses all the operational risk factors in the organization's decision making process. To prevent failure the organization must have the capability to adapt and the capacity to evolve. The hazards that would lead to an organizational failure are developed from this evolutionary model. The operational risk management program would include these hazards as well as the conventional nuclear safety hazards. (author)

Maintenance evaluation using risk based criteria

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Torres Valle, A.

1996-01-01

The maintenance evaluation is currently performed by using economic and, in some case, technical equipment failure criteria, however this is done to a specific equipment level. In general, when statistics are used the analysis for maintenance optimization are made isolated and whit a post mortem character; The integration provided by mean of Probabilistic Safety assessment (PSA) together with the possibilities of its applications, allow for evaluation of maintenance on the basis of broader scope criteria in regard to those traditionally used. The evaluate maintenance using risk based criteria, is necessary to follow a dynamic and systematic approach, in studying the maintenance strategy, to allow for updating the initial probabilistic models, for including operational changes that often take place during operation of complex facilities. This paper proposes a dynamic evaluation system of maintenance task. The system is illustrated by means of a practical example

Qualitative risk assessment for the 100-FR-1 source operable unit

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Corporation, I.T.

1994-08-01

This report provides the Qualitative risk assessment (QRA) for the waste sites associated with the 100-FR-1 Operable Unit. The QRA is an evaluation of risk for a predefined set of human and ecological exposure scenarios. It is not intended to replace or be a substitute for a baseline risk assessment. The QRA is streamlined to consider only two human health scenarios (frequent-and occasional-use) with four exposure pathways (soil ingestion, fugitive dust inhalation, inhalation of volatile organics, and external radiation exposure) and a limited ecological evaluation. The use of these scenarios and pathways was agreed to by the 100 Area Tri-Party unit managers

REPUTATIONAL AND OPERATIONAL RISKS IN EUROPEAN BANKS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Roxana HERGHILIGIU

2014-06-01

Full Text Available In the past 20 years operational and reputational risk has become more intriguing due to the public scandals of rogue tranding in banks like Barings Bank, Allied Irish Banks, Enron. The purpose of this study is to find the connections between operational risk and reputational risk. Our research shows that there may be a loss of reputation due to operational loss events. Moreover, every type of operational risk, from internal fraud, external fraud, legal and liability losses, processing errors, information security breaches, inappropriate business practice, physical security breaches conduct to a loss of reputation. The limitations of this paper are represented by the fact that do not have enough data to show the real impact of the reputation risk to the financial results of the European Banks.

An operations-partnered evaluation of care redesign for high-risk patients in the Veterans Health Administration (VHA): Study protocol for the PACT Intensive Management (PIM) randomized quality improvement evaluation.

Science.gov (United States)

Chang, Evelyn T; Zulman, Donna M; Asch, Steven M; Stockdale, Susan E; Yoon, Jean; Ong, Michael K; Lee, Martin; Simon, Alissa; Atkins, David; Schectman, Gordon; Kirsh, Susan R; Rubenstein, Lisa V

2018-06-01

Patient-centered medical homes have made great strides providing comprehensive care for patients with chronic conditions, but may not provide sufficient support for patients at highest risk for acute care use. To address this, the Veterans Health Administration (VHA) initiated a five-site demonstration project to evaluate the effectiveness of augmenting the VA's Patient Aligned Care Team (PACT) medical home with PACT Intensive Management (PIM) teams for Veterans at highest risk for hospitalization. Researchers partnered with VHA leadership to design a mixed-methods prospective multi-site evaluation that met leadership's desire for a rigorous evaluation conducted as quality improvement rather than research. We conducted a randomized QI evaluation and assigned high-risk patients to participate in PIM and compared them with high-risk Veterans receiving usual care through PACT. The summative evaluation examines whether PIM: 1) decreases VHA emergency department and hospital use; 2) increases satisfaction with VHA care; 3) decreases provider burnout; and 4) generates positive returns on investment. The formative evaluation aims to support improved care for high-risk patients at demonstration sites and to inform future initiatives for high-risk patients. The evaluation was reviewed by representatives from the VHA Office of Research and Development and the Office of Research Oversight and met criteria for quality improvement. VHA aims to function as a learning organization by rapidly implementing and rigorously testing QI innovations prior to final program or policy development. We observed challenges and opportunities in designing an evaluation consistent with QI standards and operations priorities, while also maintaining scientific rigor. This trial was retrospectively registered at ClinicalTrials.gov on April 3, 2017: NCT03100526. Protocol v1, FY14-17. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Comparative analysis of assessment methods for operational and anesthetic risks in ulcerative gastroduodenal bleeding

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Potakhin S.N.

2015-09-01

Full Text Available Aim of the investigation: to conduct a comparative analysis of methods of evaluation of surgical and anesthetic risks in ulcerative gastroduodenal bleeding. Materials and methods. A retrospective analysis ofthe extent of the surgical and anesthetic risks and results of treatment of 71 patients with peptic ulcer bleeding has been conducted in the study. To evaluate the surgical and anesthetic risks classification trees are used, scale ТА. Rockall and prognosis System of rebleeding (SPRK, proposed by N. V. Lebedev et al. in 2009, enabling to evaluate the probability of a fatal outcome. To compare the efficacy ofthe methods the following indicators are used: sensitivity, specificity and prediction of positive result. Results. The study compared the results ofthe risk assessment emergency operation by using these methods with the outcome ofthe operation. The comparison ofthe prognosis results in sensitivity leads to the conclusion that the scales ТА. Rockall and SPRK are worse than the developed method of classification trees in recognizing patients with poor outcome of surgery. Conclusion. The method of classification trees can be considered as the most accurate method of evaluation of surgical and anesthetic risks in ulcerative gastroduodenal bleeding.

Collision risk investigation for an operational spacecraft caused by space debris

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Binbin; Wang, Zhaokui; Zhang, Yulin

2017-04-01

The collision probability between an operational spacecraft and a population of space debris is investigated. By dividing the 3-dimensional operational space of the spacecraft into several space volume cells (SVC) and proposing a boundary selection method to calculate the collision probability in each SVC, the distribution of the collision risk, as functions of the time, the orbital height, the declination, the impact elevation, the collision velocity, etc., can be obtained. Thus, the collision risk could be carefully evaluated over a time span for the general orbital configurations of the spacecraft and the space debris. As an application, the collision risk for the Tiangong-2 space laboratory caused by the cataloged space debris is discussed and evaluated. Results show that most of the collision threat comes from the front left and front right in Tiangong-2's local, quasi-horizontal plane. And the collision probability will also accumulate when Tiangong-2 moves to the largest declinations (about {±} 42°). As a result, the manned space activities should be avoided at those declinations.

Risk management model of winter navigation operations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Valdez Banda, Osiris A.; Goerlandt, Floris; Kuzmin, Vladimir; Kujala, Pentti; Montewka, Jakub

2016-01-01

The wintertime maritime traffic operations in the Gulf of Finland are managed through the Finnish–Swedish Winter Navigation System. This establishes the requirements and limitations for the vessels navigating when ice covers this area. During winter navigation in the Gulf of Finland, the largest risk stems from accidental ship collisions which may also trigger oil spills. In this article, a model for managing the risk of winter navigation operations is presented. The model analyses the probability of oil spills derived from collisions involving oil tanker vessels and other vessel types. The model structure is based on the steps provided in the Formal Safety Assessment (FSA) by the International Maritime Organization (IMO) and adapted into a Bayesian Network model. The results indicate that ship independent navigation and convoys are the operations with higher probability of oil spills. Minor spills are most probable, while major oil spills found very unlikely but possible. - Highlights: •A model to assess and manage the risk of winter navigation operations is proposed. •The risks of oil spills in winter navigation in the Gulf of Finland are analysed. •The model assesses and prioritizes actions to control the risk of the operations. •The model suggests navigational training as the most efficient risk control option.

Quantitative modeling of operational risk in finance and banking using possibility theory

CERN Document Server

Chaudhuri, Arindam

2016-01-01

This book offers a comprehensive guide to the modelling of operational risk using possibility theory. It provides a set of methods for measuring operational risks under a certain degree of vagueness and impreciseness, as encountered in real-life data. It shows how possibility theory and indeterminate uncertainty-encompassing degrees of belief can be applied in analysing the risk function, and describes the parametric g-and-h distribution associated with extreme value theory as an interesting candidate in this regard. The book offers a complete assessment of fuzzy methods for determining both value at risk (VaR) and subjective value at risk (SVaR), together with a stability estimation of VaR and SVaR. Based on the simulation studies and case studies reported on here, the possibilistic quantification of risk performs consistently better than the probabilistic model. Risk is evaluated by integrating two fuzzy techniques: the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process and the fuzzy extension of techniques for order prefere...

An operational procedure for rapid flood risk assessment in Europe

Science.gov (United States)

Dottori, Francesco; Kalas, Milan; Salamon, Peter; Bianchi, Alessandra; Alfieri, Lorenzo; Feyen, Luc

2017-07-01

The development of methods for rapid flood mapping and risk assessment is a key step to increase the usefulness of flood early warning systems and is crucial for effective emergency response and flood impact mitigation. Currently, flood early warning systems rarely include real-time components to assess potential impacts generated by forecasted flood events. To overcome this limitation, this study describes the benchmarking of an operational procedure for rapid flood risk assessment based on predictions issued by the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS). Daily streamflow forecasts produced for major European river networks are translated into event-based flood hazard maps using a large map catalogue derived from high-resolution hydrodynamic simulations. Flood hazard maps are then combined with exposure and vulnerability information, and the impacts of the forecasted flood events are evaluated in terms of flood-prone areas, economic damage and affected population, infrastructures and cities.An extensive testing of the operational procedure has been carried out by analysing the catastrophic floods of May 2014 in Bosnia-Herzegovina, Croatia and Serbia. The reliability of the flood mapping methodology is tested against satellite-based and report-based flood extent data, while modelled estimates of economic damage and affected population are compared against ground-based estimations. Finally, we evaluate the skill of risk estimates derived from EFAS flood forecasts with different lead times and combinations of probabilistic forecasts. Results highlight the potential of the real-time operational procedure in helping emergency response and management.

Operational risk quantification and modelling within Romanian insurance industry

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tudor Răzvan

2017-07-01

Full Text Available This paper aims at covering and describing the shortcomings of various models used to quantify and model the operational risk within insurance industry with a particular focus on Romanian specific regulation: Norm 6/2015 concerning the operational risk issued by IT systems. While most of the local insurers are focusing on implementing the standard model to compute the Operational Risk solvency capital required, the local regulator has issued a local norm that requires to identify and assess the IT based operational risks from an ISO 27001 perspective. The challenges raised by the correlations assumed in the Standard model are substantially increased by this new regulation that requires only the identification and quantification of the IT operational risks. The solvency capital requirement stipulated by the implementation of Solvency II doesn’t recommend a model or formula on how to integrate the newly identified risks in the Operational Risk capital requirements. In this context we are going to assess the academic and practitioner’s understanding in what concerns: The Frequency-Severity approach, Bayesian estimation techniques, Scenario Analysis and Risk Accounting based on risk units, and how they could support the modelling of operational risk that are IT based. Developing an internal model only for the operational risk capital requirement proved to be, so far, costly and not necessarily beneficial for the local insurers. As the IT component will play a key role in the future of the insurance industry, the result of this analysis will provide a specific approach in operational risk modelling that can be implemented in the context of Solvency II, in a particular situation when (internal or external operational risk databases are scarce or not available.

Risk monitor - a tool for operational safety assessment risk monitor - user's manual

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hari Prasad, M.; Vinod, Gopika; Saraf, R.K.; Ghosh, A.K.

2006-06-01

Probabilistic Safety Assessment has become a key tool as on today to identify and understand Nuclear Power Plant vulnerabilities. As a result of the availability of these PSA studies, there is a desire to use them to enhance plant safety and to operate the nuclear stations in the most efficient manner. Risk Monitor is a PC based tool, which computes the real time safety level and assists plant personnel to manage day-to-day activities. Risk Monitor is a PC based user friendly software tool used for modification and re-analysis of a nuclear Power plant. Operation of Risk Monitor is based on PSA methods for assisting in day to day applications. Risk Monitoring programs can assess the risk profile and are used to optimize the operation of Nuclear Power Plants with respect to a minimum risk level over the operating time. This report presents the background activities of Risk Monitor, its application areas and the step by step procedure for the user.to interact with the software. This software can be used with the PSA model of any Nuclear Power Plant. (author)

Simulation-based decision support for evaluating operational plans

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Johan Schubert

2015-12-01

Full Text Available In this article, we describe simulation-based decision support techniques for evaluation of operational plans within effects-based planning. Using a decision support tool, developers of operational plans are able to evaluate thousands of alternative plans against possible courses of events and decide which of these plans are capable of achieving a desired end state. The objective of this study is to examine the potential of a decision support system that helps operational analysts understand the consequences of numerous alternative plans through simulation and evaluation. Operational plans are described in the effects-based approach to operations concept as a set of actions and effects. For each action, we examine several different alternative ways to perform the action. We use a representation where a plan consists of several actions that should be performed. Each action may be performed in one of several different alternative ways. Together these action alternatives make up all possible plan instances, which are represented as a tree of action alternatives that may be searched for the most effective sequence of alternative actions. As a test case, we use an expeditionary operation with a plan of 43 actions and several alternatives for these actions, as well as a scenario of 40 group actors. Decision support for planners is provided by several methods that analyze the impact of a plan on the 40 actors, e.g., by visualizing time series of plan performance. Detailed decision support for finding the most influential actions of a plan is presented by using sensitivity analysis and regression tree analysis. Finally, a decision maker may use the tool to determine the boundaries of an operation that it must not move beyond without risk of drastic failure. The significant contribution of this study is the presentation of an integrated approach for evaluation of operational plans.

Why operational risk modelling creates inverse incentives

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Doff, R.

2015-01-01

Operational risk modelling has become commonplace in large international banks and is gaining popularity in the insurance industry as well. This is partly due to financial regulation (Basel II, Solvency II). This article argues that operational risk modelling is fundamentally flawed, despite efforts

Gasbuggy Site Assessment and Risk Evaluation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

None

2011-03-01

This report describes the geologic and hydrologic conditions and evaluates potential health risks to workers in the natural gas industry in the vicinity of the Gasbuggy, New Mexico, site, where the U.S. Atomic Energy Commission detonated an underground nuclear device in 1967. The 29-kiloton detonation took place 4,240 feet below ground surface and was designed to evaluate the use of a nuclear detonation to enhance natural gas production from the Pictured Cliffs Formation in the San Juan Basin, Rio Arriba County, New Mexico, on land administered by Carson National Forest. A site-specific conceptual model was developed based on current understanding of the hydrologic and geologic environment. This conceptual model was used for establishing plausible contaminant exposure scenarios, which were then evaluated for human health risk potential. The most mobile and, therefore, the most probable contaminant that could result in human exposure is tritium. Natural gas production wells were identified as having the greatest potential for bringing detonation-derived contaminants (tritium) to the ground surface in the form of tritiated produced water. Three exposure scenarios addressing potential contamination from gas wells were considered in the risk evaluation: a gas well worker during gas-well-drilling operations, a gas well worker performing routine maintenance, and a residential exposure. The residential exposure scenario was evaluated only for comparison; permanent residences on national forest lands at the Gasbuggy site are prohibited

12 CFR 932.6 - Operations risk capital requirement.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... operations risk capital requirement shall at all times equal 30 percent of the sum of the Bank's credit risk... percent but no less than 10 percent of the sum of the Bank's credit risk capital requirement and market... 12 Banks and Banking 7 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Operations risk capital requirement. 932.6...

Evaluation of thermal overload in boiler operators.

Science.gov (United States)

Braga, Camila Soares; Rodrigues, Valéria Antônia Justino; Campos, Julio César Costa; de Souza, Amaury Paulo; Minette, Luciano José; de Moraes, Angêlo Casali; Sensato, Guilherme Luciano

2012-01-01

The Brazilians educational institutions need a large energy demand for the operation of laundries, restaurants and accommodation of students. Much of that energy comes from steam generated in boilers with wood fuel. The laboral activity in boiler may present problems for the operator's health due to exposure to excessive heat, and its operation has a high degree of risk. This paper describes an analysis made the conditions of thermal environment in the operation of a B category boiler, located at a Higher Education Institution, located in the Zona da Mata Mineira The equipments used to collect data were Meter WBGT of the Heat Index; Meter of Wet Bulb Index and Globe Thermometer (WBGT); Politeste Instruments, an anemometer and an Infrared Thermometer. By the application of questionnaires, the second phase consisted of collecting data on environmental factors (temperature natural environment, globe temperature, relative humidity and air velocity). The study concluded that during the period evaluated, the activity had thermal overload.

Risk assessment and risk evaluation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Niehaus, F.

1978-01-01

With the help of results of investigations and model calculations the risk of nuclear energy in routine operation is shown. In this context it is pointed out that the excellent operation results of reactors all over the world have led to the acceptability of risks from local loads no longer being in question. The attention of radiation protection is therefore focused on the emissions of long-living isotopes which collect in the atmosphere. With LWRs the risk of accidents is so minimal that statistical data is, and never will be available. One has to therefore fall back upon the so-called fault tree analyses. On the subject of risk evalution the author referred to a poll in Austria. From the result of this investigation one might conclude that nuclear energy serves as a crystallization point for a discussion of varying concepts for future development. More attention should be paid to this aspect from both sides, in order to objectify the further expansion of this source of energy. (orig./HP) [de

Innovation and employee injury risk in automotive disassembly operations

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Neumann, W. Patrick; Winkel, Jørgen; Palmerud, Gunnar

2018-01-01

to control injury hazards as part of the development and design process. These cases suggest how failure to manage RSI hazards in the innovation process may allow increases of injury risks that can compromise operational performance. This ‘innovation pitfall’ has implications for operator health...... increased movement speeds and reduced muscular recovery opportunities, implying increased RSI risk. This case study reveals a mechanism by which innovation may increase RSI risks for operators. Managers responsible for engineering innovation should ensure their teams have the tools and mandate necessary......Engineering innovations in car disassembly systems are studied for affects on system operators’ risk of repetitive strain injury (RSI). Objective instrumented measures of injury risk factors with synchronised video-based task analyses were used to examine changes in operators’ RSI risk during...

A Taxonomy of Operational Risks

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Gallagher, Brian P; Case, Pamela J; Creel, Rita C; Kushner, Susan; Williams, Ray C

2005-01-01

... identification of risks associated with the development of a software-dependent project. Since then, this method also has been used in the Software Risk Evaluation process to identify risks associated with the development of software-intensive systems...

Operational Risk Management: Increasing Mission Effectiveness Through Improved Planning and Execution of Joint Operations

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Beckvonpeccoz, Stephen

1997-01-01

.... This deficiency should be remedied with the adoption of Operational Risk Management (ORM), an existing process which would provide operational commanders a tool for making smarter risk decisions...

How Can Every Organization Manage the Operational Risk?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ferry Jie

2002-03-01

Full Text Available This article describe how every organization (generally and Australian Organizations (specifically can manage the operational risks.  Recently, the operational risks are the significant issues in every organization because every organization will suffer from poor operational performance due to risks, failure, and problems such as a number of losses which are likely to be made worse. Basically, the operational risk management process has five steps, identification, analysis, treatment, controlling, and communication/consulting. Generally, many organizations (in particularly in Australia and New Zealand have already used AS/NZS 4360-Risk Management System, AS/NZS 4801-Occupational Health and Safety Management System, ISO 14001: Effective Environmental Management System, ISO 9001: Quality Management System, AS/NZS 7799: Information Security Management, AS/NZS 3806: Compliance Management System for reducing/mitigating/managing the operational risks. Based on the SAI Certification Register, the number of Australian Organizations got the AS/NZS ISO 9000 series, AS/NZS 14000 series, AS/NZS 4801 and AS/NZS 7799.2:2000 Certifications are 3338, 30, 20 and 5 respectively. It can conclude that Australian Organizations prefer used AS/NZS ISO 9000 series rather than AS/NZS ISO 14000 series, AS/NZS 4801 and AS/NZS 7799.2:2000.

THE OPERATIONAL RISK MANAGEMENT IN THE ROMANIAN SMEs

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Roxana Mironescu

2015-07-01

Full Text Available The prerequisite for the smooth functioning of the business risk management is the correct identification. Basically, identifying business risks is fundamental to determine the optimal level of protection for a given activity. If the risk is underestimated, the protection will be insufficient to cover losses and, if overstated, the cost of protection will reduce the excess proceeds of the activity. The objective of this research was to identify the internal and external major factors which influence the present activities and the future of the SMEs from the North East region The method used in this paper work is based on a questionnaire applied to a sample of 120 top managers coming from various fields of activity, operating on the market for more than two years. The management of information and the data collection was conducted in the late 2013. In the first stage, a total of 35 risks was identified. The further evaluation of the results used the probability and the impact of the identified risks, based on questionnaires and by processing information from the documentation provided by the managers of SMEs taken under the analysis.

Ergonomic analysis for the assessment of the risk of work-related musculoskeletal disorder in forestry operations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Raimondo Gallo

2013-09-01

Full Text Available The risk to run into a Work-Related Musculoskeletal Disorder (WMSD is very high when operating in the primary sector. As a matter of fact the professional illnesses related to the WMSD in Italy are increasing. Nowadays the assessment of the WMSD in the primary sector is performed mainly in the agricultural sector, considering different agronomical activities; for the forestry sector, only few documents reported an ergonomic evaluation. The lack of available information on this topic in the forestry sector, as well as the similarity with the agricultural sector, drives the interest to the assessment of the conditions that expose workers to WMSD risks in forestry operations. Four different assessment approaches were applied in this study. These tools permitted to classify which are the exposures and if there is the presence of WMSD risk for forest operators. The approaches are respectively the OCRA checklist and the RNLE equation, both recognized as ISO standards, as well as OWAS and REBA, recommended by ISO standards. The first approach focusses on the risk due to repetitive and stressed movements, while the second evaluates the risk of injures due to the manual movement of loads. Meanwhile OWAS and REBA detect the possibility of injures due to wrong postures during the work. These approaches were applied for the cutting operations with chainsaw. Since the evaluation requires high levels of attention and also because it was necessary to gain a good level of safety for the surveyor, a digital camera was used to film the operative activities. Then, the movies were analysed in office. Aim of the research is to analyse if it is possible to apply the approaches suggested by ISO standards in order to assess the most dangerous activities that, when not properly carried out, could be the cause of WMSD in forestry operations. The study showed that during the use of the chainsaw the index of risk of professional injures was overpassed several times

Performance of European system for cardiac operative risk evaluation in Veterans General Hospital Kaohsiung cardiac surgery

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hsin-Hung Shih

2011-03-01

Conclusion: EuroSCORE is simple and easy to use. In the present study, the model demonstrated excellent accuracy in all and various surgical subgroups in VGHKS cardiovascular surgery populations. Good calibration ability in all and different risk categories was identified except for isolated CABG group. Recalibration factors of 0.55 and 0.85 were suggested for the various operative subgroups and risk categories.

Evaluation Method of Collision Risk by Using True Motion

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hayama Imazu

2017-03-01

Full Text Available It is necessary to develop a useful application to use big data like as AIS for safety and efficiency of ship operation. AIS is very useful system to collect targets information, but this information is not effective use yet. The evaluation method of collision risk is one of the cause disturb. Usually the collision risk of ship is evaluated by the value of the Closest Point of Approach (CPA which is related to a relative motion. So, it becomes difficult to find out a safety pass in a congested water. Here, Line of Predicted Collision (LOPC and Obstacle Zone by Target (OZT for evaluation of collision risk are introduced, these values are related to a true motion and it became visible of dangerous place, so it will make easy to find out a safety pass in a congested water.

Evaluation of the sanitary and environmental risks resulting from the Erika sinking and from the coasts cleaning operations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cicolella, A.

2000-03-01

This synthesis presents the methodology of the risks evaluation and of the INERIS report, the products analysis, general data on polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, the exposure evaluation, the sanitary impact evaluation for the polycyclic organic hydrocarbons and volatile organic compounds and the evaluation of ecological risks. (A.L.B.)

Improving Operational Risk Management Using Business Performance Management Technologies

OpenAIRE

Bram Pieket Weeserik; Marco Spruit

2018-01-01

Operational Risk Management (ORM) comprises the continuous management of risks resulting from: human actions, internal processes, systems, and external events. With increasing requirements, complexity and a growing volume of risks, information systems provide benefits for integrating risk management activities and optimizing performance. Business Performance Management (BPM) technologies are believed to provide a solution for effective Operational Risk Management by offering several combined ...

Methodology for Designing Operational Banking Risks Monitoring System

Science.gov (United States)

Kostjunina, T. N.

2018-05-01

The research looks at principles of designing an information system for monitoring operational banking risks. A proposed design methodology enables one to automate processes of collecting data on information security incidents in the banking network, serving as the basis for an integrated approach to the creation of an operational risk management system. The system can operate remotely ensuring tracking and forecasting of various operational events in the bank network. A structure of a content management system is described.

Operational Risk Defined Through a Complex Operating Environment

Science.gov (United States)

2015-02-26

analysis . But the report noted that “CJTF-HOA’s presence in Africa offers benefits such as its ability to respond to contingencies, provide forces for...18 Analysis ...Development JOPP Joint Operations Planning Process NGO Non-Governmental Organization PRC Profitable Risk Control SWOT Strengths, Weaknesses

Evaluation of risk management and financial performance of BMW Group

OpenAIRE

Mysina, Amira

2017-01-01

Effective risk and financial management possess a great challenge for the multinational companies operating globally. Despite the increasing development of diverse hedging strategies against foreign exchange risk, global firms cannot fully foresee and measure the degree of the impact of foreign currency fluctuations. This paper aims to evaluate the exchange risk management and financial performance of the BMW Group from the year 2005 to 2016. Moreover, this paper is devoted to provide explana...

Short Operative Duration and Surgical Site Infection Risk in Hip and Knee Arthroplasty Procedures.

Science.gov (United States)

Dicks, Kristen V; Baker, Arthur W; Durkin, Michael J; Anderson, Deverick J; Moehring, Rebekah W; Chen, Luke F; Sexton, Daniel J; Weber, David J; Lewis, Sarah S

2015-12-01

To determine the association (1) between shorter operative duration and surgical site infection (SSI) and (2) between surgeon median operative duration and SSI risk among first-time hip and knee arthroplasties. Retrospective cohort study A total of 43 community hospitals located in the southeastern United States. Adults who developed SSIs according to National Healthcare Safety Network criteria within 365 days of first-time knee or hip arthroplasties performed between January 1, 2008 and December 31, 2012. Log-binomial regression models estimated the association (1) between operative duration and SSI outcome and (2) between surgeon median operative duration and SSI outcome. Hip and knee arthroplasties were evaluated in separate models. Each model was adjusted for American Society of Anesthesiology score and patient age. A total of 25,531 hip arthroplasties and 42,187 knee arthroplasties were included in the study. The risk of SSI in knee arthroplasties with an operative duration shorter than the 25th percentile was 0.40 times the risk of SSI in knee arthroplasties with an operative duration between the 25th and 75th percentile (risk ratio [RR], 0.40; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.38-0.56; Poperative duration did not demonstrate significant association with SSI for hip arthroplasties (RR, 1.04; 95% CI, 0.79-1.37; P=.36). Knee arthroplasty surgeons with shorter median operative durations had a lower risk of SSI than surgeons with typical median operative durations (RR, 0.52; 95% CI, 0.43-0.64; Poperative durations were not associated with a higher SSI risk for knee or hip arthroplasty procedures in our analysis.

Application of risk assessment in upgrading safety and quality of radiochemical operations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lin, K.H.; Hightower, J.R.; Vaughen, V.C.A.

1990-01-01

A Comprehensive Safety Assessment and Upgrade Program (CSAUP) was commenced by the Chemical Technology Division (Chem Tech) at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) to achieve excellence in the safety and quality of its operations and condition of its facilities. In the course of conducting CSAUP, a number of issues of concern were identified. The safety risk of these issues has been assessed, and planned actions were prepared for those issues that require corrective actions or improvement/upgrading. The planned actions were evaluated on consideration for the uniqueness of Chem Tech facilities and operations to determine the risks (high, moderate or low) involved by failure to implement the actions. The risk was defined in terms of the frequency and severity of impact. Priority of categorized actions was based on the urgency of the actions. 2 refs., 1 fig., 3 tabs

User's guide to the repository intrusion risk evaluation code INTRUDE

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nancarrow, D.J.; Thorne, M.C.

1986-05-01

The report, commissioned by the Department of the Environment as part of its radioactive waste management research programme, constitutes the user's guide to the repository intrusion risk evaluation code INTRUDE. It provides an explanation of the mathematical basis of the code, the database used and the operation of the code. INTRUDE is designed to facilitate the estimation of individual risks arising from the possibility of intrusion into shallow land burial facilities for radioactive wastes. It considers a comprehensive inventory of up to 65 long-lived radionuclides and produces risk estimates for up to 20 modes of intrusion and up to 50 times of evaluation. (author)

Mastery of risks and operating safety, risks and efficiencies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2006-01-01

A proper management of ones risks consists in acting to exert prevention and protection capacities against the negative consequences of an event, but also by committing oneself into an offensive approach allowing to improve efficiency, quality and availability. Safety and efficiencies are mutual reinforcing goals aiming at ensuring the perenniality of industries and services. The implementation of a risk management approach in an industrial environment allows to reach a better reactiveness and to increase the efficiency of a system by the mastery of organization and processes. The activities in concern are those of industries and services: transports, energy and environment, automotive industry, petrochemistry, chemistry, food, space, health, defense industries, telecommunication, mining industry, information systems, textile industry, finances.. The topics approached during this meeting treat of: the relevance of risk-abatement resources with respect to risks criticality; the consistent management of uncertainties with respect to stakes; the mastery of components aging and the expression of aging-dependent availability, maintenance and safety policies; the expression of obsolescence-related renewing policies; the operating safety tools and methods applied to complex and computerized-controlled systems; the integration of social, organizational and human factors in technical decisions and companies management; transverse and global risk analysis and decision-aid approaches; the vigilance culture; crisis anticipation and management; the experience feedback on technical and organisational aspects; efficiency and risk mastery indicators; cost/benefit approach in risk management, and economic intelligence approaches. Nineteen presentations have been selected which deal with the mastery of risks and the operating safety at nuclear facilities. (J.S.)

Multivariate operational risk: dependence modelling with Lévy copulas

OpenAIRE

Böcker, K. and Klüppelberg, C.

2015-01-01

Simultaneous modelling of operational risks occurring in different event type/business line cells poses the challenge for operational risk quantification. Invoking the new concept of L´evy copulas for dependence modelling yields simple approximations of high quality for multivariate operational VAR.

Managing Risks in Dry Port Operations

OpenAIRE

Ciortescu Cezar-Gabriel; Pãvãla?cu Narcis Sebastian

2012-01-01

The purpose of this paper is to have an in-depth look into the phenomenon of risk assessment and risk management strategies in managing dry port operations as an integrated part into international containerized freight trade. The fact that world crises take the form of disruptions, bankruptcies, breakdowns, macroeconomic and political changes, and disasters leads to higher risks and makes risk management more and more difficult. This paper aims to discuss the theory behind the dry port concep...

The BWR [Boiling Water Reactor] Emergency Operating Procedures Tracking System (EOPTS): Evaluation by control-room operating crews

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Spurgin, A.J.; Orvis, D.D.; Spurgin, J.P.; Luna, C.J.

1990-05-01

This report presents the results of a project sponsored by the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) and Taiwan Power Company (TPC) and conducted by APG and TPC to perform evaluation of the Emergency Operating Procedures Tracking System (EOPTS). The EOPTS is an expert system employing artificial intelligence techniques developed by EPRI for Boiling Water Reactor (BWR) plants based on emergency operating procedures (EOPs). EOPTS is a computerized decision aid used to assist plant operators in efficient and reliable use of EOPs. The main objective of this project was to evaluate the EOPTS and determine how an operator aid of this type could noticeably improve the response time and the reliability of control room crews to multi-failure scenarios. A secondary objective was to collect data on how crew performance was affected. Experiments results indicate that the EOPTS measurably improves crew performance over crews using the EOP flow charts. Time-comparison measurements indicate that crews using the EOPTS perform required actions more quickly than do those using the flowcharts. The results indicate that crews using the EOPTS are not only faster and more consistent in their actions but make fewer errors. In addition, they have a higher likelihood of recovering from the errors that they do make. Use of the EOPTS in the control room should result in faster termination and mitigation of accidents and reduced risk of power plant operations. Recommendations are made towards possible applications of the EOPTS to operator training and evaluation, and for the applicability of the evaluation methodology developed for this project to the evaluation of similar operator aides. 17 refs., 14 figs., 14 tabs

Plant operator performance evaluation system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ujita, Hiroshi; Fukuda, Mitsuko; Kubota, Ryuji.

1989-01-01

A plant operator performance evaluation system to analyze plant operation records during accident training and to identify and classify operator errors has been developed for the purpose of supporting realization of a training and education system for plant operators. A knowledge engineering technique was applied to evaluation of operator behavior by both even-based and symptom-based procedures, in various situations including event transition due to multiple failures or operational errors. The system classifies the identified errors as to their single and double types based on Swain's error classification and the error levels reflecting Rasmussen's cognitive level, and it also evaluates the effect of errors on plant state and then classifies error influence, using 'knowledge for phenomena and operations', as represented by frames. It has additional functions for analysis of error statistics and knowledge acquisition support of 'knowledge for operations'. The system was applied to a training analysis for a scram event in a BWR plant, and its error analysis function was confirmed to be effective by operational experts. (author)

New Metrics for Evaluating Technical Benefits and Risks of DGs Increasing Penetration

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Akbari, Mohammad Amin; Aghaei, Jamshid; Barani, Mostafa

2017-01-01

and risks should be qualified and quantified. This paper introduces several probabilistic indices to evaluate the potential operational effects of increasing penetration of renewable DG units such as wind power and photovoltaic on rural distribution network with the aid of evaluating technical benefits...... and risks trade-offs. A probabilistic generation-load model is suggested to calculate these indices which combine a large number of possible operating conditions of renewable DG units with their probabilities. Temporal and annual indices of voltage profile and line flow related attributes such as Interest...... Voltage Rise (IVR), Risky Voltage Rise (RVR), Risky Voltage Down (RVD), Line Loss Reduction (LLR), Line Loss Increment (LLI) and Line overload flow (LOF) are introduced using probability and expected values of their occurrence. Also, to measure the overall interests and risks of installing DG, composite...

Assessment of three risk evaluation systems for patients aged ≥70 in East China: performance of SinoSCORE, EuroSCORE II and the STS risk evaluation system.

Science.gov (United States)

Shan, Lingtong; Ge, Wen; Pu, Yiwei; Cheng, Hong; Cang, Zhengqiang; Zhang, Xing; Li, Qifan; Xu, Anyang; Wang, Qi; Gu, Chang; Zhang, Yangyang

2018-01-01

To assess and compare the predictive ability of three risk evaluation systems (SinoSCORE, EuroSCORE II and the STS risk evaluation system) in patients aged ≥70, and who underwent coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) in East China. Three risk evaluation systems were applied to 1,946 consecutive patients who underwent isolated CABG from January 2004 to September 2016 in two hospitals. Patients were divided into two subsets according to their age: elderly group (age ≥70) with a younger group (age evaluation system were 0.78(0.64)%, 1.43(1.14)% and 0.78(0.77)%, respectively. SinoSCORE achieved the best discrimination (the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) = 0.829), followed by the STS risk evaluation system (AUC = 0.790) and EuroSCORE II (AUC = 0.769) in the entire cohort. In the elderly group, the observed mortality rate was 4.82% while it was 1.38% in the younger group. SinoSCORE (AUC = .829) also achieved the best discrimination in the elderly group, followed by the STS risk evaluation system (AUC = .730) and EuroSCORE II (AUC = 0.640) while all three risk evaluation systems all had good performances in the younger group. SinoSCORE, EuroSCORE II and the STS risk evaluation system all achieved positive calibrations in the entire cohort and subsets. The performance of the three risk evaluation systems was not ideal in the entire cohort. In the elderly group, SinoSCORE appeared to achieve better predictive efficiency than EuroSCORE II and the STS risk evaluation system.

Initial 12-h operative fluid volume is an independent risk factor for pleural effusion after hepatectomy.

Science.gov (United States)

Cheng, Xiang; Wu, Jia-Wei; Sun, Ping; Song, Zi-Fang; Zheng, Qi-Chang

2016-12-01

Pleural effusion after hepatectomy is associated with significant morbidity and prolonged hospital stays. Several studies have addressed the risk factors for postoperative pleural effusion. However, there are no researches concerning the role of the initial 12-h operative fluid volume. The aim of this study was to evaluate whether the initial 12-h operative fluid volume during liver resection is an independent risk factor for pleural effusion after hepatectomy. In this study, we retrospectively analyzed clinical data of 470 patients consecutively undergoing elective hepatectomy between January 2011 and December 2012. We prospectively collected and retrospectively analyzed baseline and clinical data, including preoperative, intraoperative, and postoperative variables. Univariate and multivariate analyses were carried out to identify whether the initial 12-h operative fluid volume was an independent risk factor for pleural effusion after hepatectomy. The multivariate analysis identified 2 independent risk factors for pleural effusion: operative time [odds ratio (OR)=10.2] and initial 12-h operative fluid volume (OR=1.0003). Threshold effect analyses revealed that the initial 12 h operative fluid volume was positively correlated with the incidence of pleural effusion when the initial 12-h operative fluid volume exceeded 4636 mL. We conclude that the initial 12-h operative fluid volume during liver resection and operative time are independent risk factors for pleural effusion after hepatectomy. Perioperative intravenous fluids should be restricted properly.

A proposed operational risk management framework for small and medium enterprises

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Micheline J. Naude

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Background: The gap between small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs and large businesses that perform risk assessment is significant. SMEs continuously face many operational risks and uncertainties in their daily operations, and these risks threaten to reduce productivity, increase costs and reduce profits. Aim: The purpose of this article was to develop an operational risk management framework that SMEs can use to identify and analyse risks in their operations and take corrective actions to mitigate these risks. Setting: Small and medium-sized enterprises in South Africa do not view risk management as a key component of organisational success, despite evidence that businesses that adopt risk management strategies are more likely to survive and grow. Methods: The article is exploratory in nature, and a conceptual analysis approach was used to formulate the framework. This study reviewed relevant literature sources on risk published between 2002 and 2017. Results: The four process steps of risk management were used as a reference point and form the foundation for the operational risk management framework. The categories of operational; marketing; technical and financial risks were identified from a review of available literature on risk management. Conclusion: There is a dearth of research that deals with operational risk management frameworks for SMEs. The expected contribution of this article, therefore, is twofold: firstly, it is envisaged that managers or owners of SMEs could use the proposed framework as a tool to appraise and minimise their operational risks; secondly, it will add to the current body of knowledge on risk appraisal for SMEs.

[Pre-operation evaluation and intra-operation management of cochlear implantation].

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Dao-xing; Hu, Bao-hua; Xiao, Yu-li; Shi, Bo-ning

2004-10-01

To summarize pre-operation evaluation experiences in cochlear implantation. Performing auditory evaluation and image analysis seriously in 158 severe hearing loss or total deaf cases before cochlear implantation, comparing their performance with the findings during and post operation. Among the total 158 cases, 116 cases with normal structure, 42 cases with the abnormal findings of the inner or middle ear. Stapedial gusher happened in 6 cases, 1 case was not predicted before operation. Except 1 case with serious malformation, the findings of other 157 cases in operation were consistent with the pre-operation evaluation. We helped all patients reconstruct auditory conduction with cochlear implantation, and the average hearing level up to 37.6 dB SPL. Performing image analysis seriously before operation and planning for operation according to HRCT can do great help to cochlear implantation. The operation under the HRCT instruction has less complications.

Risk assessment and remedial policy evaluation using predictive modeling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Linkov, L.; Schell, W.R.

1996-01-01

As a result of nuclear industry operation and accidents, large areas of natural ecosystems have been contaminated by radionuclides and toxic metals. Extensive societal pressure has been exerted to decrease the radiation dose to the population and to the environment. Thus, in making abatement and remediation policy decisions, not only economic costs but also human and environmental risk assessments are desired. This paper introduces a general framework for risk assessment and remedial policy evaluation using predictive modeling. Ecological risk assessment requires evaluation of the radionuclide distribution in ecosystems. The FORESTPATH model is used for predicting the radionuclide fate in forest compartments after deposition as well as for evaluating the efficiency of remedial policies. Time of intervention and radionuclide deposition profile was predicted as being crucial for the remediation efficiency. Risk assessment conducted for a critical group of forest users in Belarus shows that consumption of forest products (berries and mushrooms) leads to about 0.004% risk of a fatal cancer annually. Cost-benefit analysis for forest cleanup suggests that complete removal of organic layer is too expensive for application in Belarus and a better methodology is required. In conclusion, FORESTPATH modeling framework could have wide applications in environmental remediation of radionuclides and toxic metals as well as in dose reconstruction and, risk-assessment

Risk assessment of maintenance operations: the analysis of performing task and accident mechanism.

Science.gov (United States)

Carrillo-Castrillo, Jesús A; Rubio-Romero, Juan Carlos; Guadix, Jose; Onieva, Luis

2015-01-01

Maintenance operations cover a great number of occupations. Most small and medium-sized enterprises lack the appropriate information to conduct risk assessments of maintenance operations. The objective of this research is to provide a method based on the concepts of task and accident mechanisms for an initial risk assessment by taking into consideration the prevalence and severity of the maintenance accidents reported. Data were gathered from 11,190 reported accidents in maintenance operations in the manufacturing sector of Andalusia from 2003 to 2012. By using a semi-quantitative methodology, likelihood and severity were evaluated based on the actual distribution of accident mechanisms in each of the tasks. Accident mechanisms and tasks were identified by using those variables included in the European Statistics of Accidents at Work methodology. As main results, the estimated risk of the most frequent accident mechanisms identified for each of the analysed tasks is low and the only accident mechanisms with medium risk are accidents when lifting or pushing with physical stress on the musculoskeletal system in tasks involving carrying, and impacts against objects after slipping or stumbling for tasks involving movements. The prioritisation of public preventive actions for the accident mechanisms with a higher estimated risk is highly recommended.

Risk analysis of industrial plants operation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hubert, Philippe

1989-12-01

This study examines the possibilities of systematic technology risk analysis in view of territorial management (city, urban community, region), including chronic and accidental risks. The objective was to relate this evaluation with those done for permanent water and air pollution. Risk management for pollution are done for a long time. A number of studies were done in urban communities and regions both for air and water pollution. The second objective is related to management of industrial risks: nuclear, petrochemical, transport of hazardous material, pipelines, etc. At the beginning, three possibilities of effects are taken into account: human health, economic aspect and water, and possibilities of evaluation are identified. Elements of risk identification are presented for quantification of results [fr

Operational Risk Assesement Tools for Quality Management in Banking Services

OpenAIRE

Dima, Alina Mihaela

2009-01-01

Among all the different types of risks that can affect financial companies, the operational risk can be the most devastating and the most difficult to anticipate. The management of operational risk is a key component of financial and risk management discipline that drives net income results, 2capital management and customer satisfaction. The present paper contains a statistical analysis in order to determine the number of operational errors as quality based services determinants, depending on...

Operational Risk Management and Military Aviation Safety

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Ashley, Park

1999-01-01

.... The Army's Class A aviation mishap rate declined after it implemented risk management (RM) principles in 1987. This reduction caught the attention of Air Force leadership who have since stated that the application of operational risk management...

Conceptual Model of Offshore Wind Environmental Risk Evaluation System

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Anderson, Richard M.; Copping, Andrea E.; Van Cleve, Frances B.; Unwin, Stephen D.; Hamilton, Erin L.

2010-06-01

In this report we describe the development of the Environmental Risk Evaluation System (ERES), a risk-informed analytical process for estimating the environmental risks associated with the construction and operation of offshore wind energy generation projects. The development of ERES for offshore wind is closely allied to a concurrent process undertaken to examine environmental effects of marine and hydrokinetic (MHK) energy generation, although specific risk-relevant attributes will differ between the MHK and offshore wind domains. During FY10, a conceptual design of ERES for offshore wind will be developed. The offshore wind ERES mockup described in this report will provide a preview of the functionality of a fully developed risk evaluation system that will use risk assessment techniques to determine priority stressors on aquatic organisms and environments from specific technology aspects, identify key uncertainties underlying high-risk issues, compile a wide-range of data types in an innovative and flexible data organizing scheme, and inform planning and decision processes with a transparent and technically robust decision-support tool. A fully functional version of ERES for offshore wind will be developed in a subsequent phase of the project.

Operation condition for continuous anti-solvent crystallization of CBZ-SAC cocrystal considering deposition risk of undesired crystals

Science.gov (United States)

Nishimaru, Momoko; Nakasa, Miku; Kudo, Shoji; Takiyama, Hiroshi

2017-07-01

Crystallization operation of cocrystal production has deposition risk of undesired crystals. Simultaneously, continuous manufacturing processes are focused on. In this study, conditions for continuous cocrystallization considering risk reduction of undesired crystals deposition were investigated on the view point of thermodynamics and kinetics. The anti-solvent cocrystallization was carried out in four-component system of carbamazepine, saccharin, methanol and water. From the preliminary batch experiment, the relationships among undesired crystal deposition, solution composition decided by mixing ratio of solutions, and residence time for the crystals were considered, and then the conditions of continuous experiment were decided. Under these conditions, the continuous experiment was carried out. The XRD patterns of obtained crystals in the continuous experiment showed that desired cocrystals were obtained without undesired crystals. This experimental result was evaluated by using multi-component phase diagrams from the view point of the operation point's movement. From the evaluation, it was found that there is a certain operation condition which the operation point is fixed with time in the specific domain without the deposition risk of undesired single component crystals. It means the possibility of continuous production of cocrystals without deposition risk of undesired crystals was confirmed by using multi-component phase diagrams.

A risk evaluation model using on-site meteorological data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kang, C.S.

1979-01-01

A model is considered in order to evaluate the potential risk from a nuclear facility directly combining the on site meteorological data. The model is utilized to evaluate the environmental consequences from the routine releases during normal plant operation as well as following postulated accidental releases. The doses to individual and risks to the population-at-large are also analyzed in conjunction with design of rad-waste management and safety systems. It is observed that the conventional analysis, which is done in two separate unaffiliated phases of releases and atmospheric dispersion tends to result in unnecessary over-design of the systems because of high resultant doses calculated by multiplication of two extreme values. (author)

The Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm Statistically Corrected Operative Risk Evaluation (AAA SCORE) for predicting mortality after open and endovascular interventions.

Science.gov (United States)

Ambler, Graeme K; Gohel, Manjit S; Mitchell, David C; Loftus, Ian M; Boyle, Jonathan R

2015-01-01

Accurate adjustment of surgical outcome data for risk is vital in an era of surgeon-level reporting. Current risk prediction models for abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) repair are suboptimal. We aimed to develop a reliable risk model for in-hospital mortality after intervention for AAA, using rigorous contemporary statistical techniques to handle missing data. Using data collected during a 15-month period in the United Kingdom National Vascular Database, we applied multiple imputation methodology together with stepwise model selection to generate preoperative and perioperative models of in-hospital mortality after AAA repair, using two thirds of the available data. Model performance was then assessed on the remaining third of the data by receiver operating characteristic curve analysis and compared with existing risk prediction models. Model calibration was assessed by Hosmer-Lemeshow analysis. A total of 8088 AAA repair operations were recorded in the National Vascular Database during the study period, of which 5870 (72.6%) were elective procedures. Both preoperative and perioperative models showed excellent discrimination, with areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve of .89 and .92, respectively. This was significantly better than any of the existing models (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for best comparator model, .84 and .88; P AAA repair. These models were carefully developed with rigorous statistical methodology and significantly outperform existing methods for both elective cases and overall AAA mortality. These models will be invaluable for both preoperative patient counseling and accurate risk adjustment of published outcome data. Copyright © 2015 Society for Vascular Surgery. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Risk evaluation: A cost-oriented approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rogers, B.H.

1998-01-01

This method provides a structured and cost-oriented way to determine risks associated with loss and destruction of industrial security interests consisting of material assets and human resources. Loss and destruction are assumed to be adversary perpetrated, high-impact events in which the health and safety of people or high-value property is at risk. This concept provides a process for: (1) assessing effectiveness of all integrated protection system, which includes facility operations, safety, emergency and security systems, and (2) a qualitative prioritization scheme to determine the level of consequence relative to cost and subsequent risk. The method allows managers the flexibility to establish asset protection appropriate to programmatic requirements and priorities and to decide if funding is appropriate. The evaluation objectives are to: (1) provide for a systematic, qualitative tabletop process to estimate the potential for an undesirable event and its impact; and (2) identify ineffective protection and cost-effective solutions

Risk Perception and Communication in Commercial Reusable Launch Vehicle Operations

Science.gov (United States)

Hardy, Terry L.

2005-12-01

A number of inventors and entrepreneurs are currently attempting to develop and commercially operate reusable launch vehicles to carry voluntary participants into space. The operation of these launch vehicles, however, produces safety risks to the crew, to the space flight participants, and to the uninvolved public. Risk communication therefore becomes increasingly important to assure that those involved in the flight understand the risk and that those who are not directly involved understand the personal impact of RLV operations on their lives. Those involved in the launch vehicle flight may perceive risk differently from those non-participants, and these differences in perception must be understood to effectively communicate this risk. This paper summarizes existing research in risk perception and communication and applies that research to commercial reusable launch vehicle operations. Risk communication is discussed in the context of requirements of United States law for informed consent from any space flight participants on reusable suborbital launch vehicles.

Risk-based decision analysis for groundwater operable units

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chiaramonte, G.R.

1995-01-01

This document proposes a streamlined approach and methodology for performing risk assessment in support of interim remedial measure (IRM) decisions involving the remediation of contaminated groundwater on the Hanford Site. This methodology, referred to as ''risk-based decision analysis,'' also supports the specification of target cleanup volumes and provides a basis for design and operation of the groundwater remedies. The risk-based decision analysis can be completed within a short time frame and concisely documented. The risk-based decision analysis is more versatile than the qualitative risk assessment (QRA), because it not only supports the need for IRMs, but also provides criteria for defining the success of the IRMs and provides the risk-basis for decisions on final remedies. For these reasons, it is proposed that, for groundwater operable units, the risk-based decision analysis should replace the more elaborate, costly, and time-consuming QRA

Performance of the European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation II: a meta-analysis of 22 studies involving 145,592 cardiac surgery procedures.

Science.gov (United States)

Guida, Pietro; Mastro, Florinda; Scrascia, Giuseppe; Whitlock, Richard; Paparella, Domenico

2014-12-01

A systematic review of the European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (euroSCORE) II performance for prediction of operative mortality after cardiac surgery has not been performed. We conducted a meta-analysis of studies based on the predictive accuracy of the euroSCORE II. We searched the Embase and PubMed databases for all English-only articles reporting performance characteristics of the euroSCORE II. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, the observed/expected mortality ratio, and observed-expected mortality difference with their 95% confidence intervals were analyzed. Twenty-two articles were selected, including 145,592 procedures. Operative mortality occurred in 4293 (2.95%), whereas the expected events according to euroSCORE II were 4802 (3.30%). Meta-analysis of these studies provided an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.792 (95% confidence interval, 0.773-0.811), an estimated observed/expected ratio of 1.019 (95% confidence interval, 0.899-1.139), and observed-expected difference of 0.125 (95% confidence interval, -0.269 to 0.519). Statistical heterogeneity was detected among retrospective studies including less recent procedures. Subgroups analysis confirmed the robustness of combined estimates for isolated valve procedures and those combined with revascularization surgery. A significant overestimation of the euroSCORE II with an observed/expected ratio of 0.829 (95% confidence interval, 0.677-0.982) was observed in isolated coronary artery bypass grafting and a slight underestimation of predictions in high-risk patients (observed/expected ratio 1.253 and observed-expected difference 1.859). Despite the heterogeneity, the results from this meta-analysis show a good overall performance of the euroSCORE II in terms of discrimination and accuracy of model predictions for operative mortality. Validation of the euroSCORE II in prospective populations needs to be further studied for a continuous

Ergonomic risk factor identification for sewing machine operators through supervised occupational therapy fieldwork in Bangladesh: A case study.

Science.gov (United States)

Habib, Md Monjurul

2015-01-01

Many sewing machine operators are working with high risk factors for musculoskeletal health in the garments industries in Bangladesh. To identify the physical risk factors among sewing machine operators in a Bangladeshi garments factory. Sewing machine operators (327, 83% female), were evaluated. The mean age of the participants was 25.25 years. Six ergonomic risk factors were determined using the Musculoskeletal Disorders risk assessment. Data collection included measurements of sewing machine table and chair heights; this data was combined with information from informal interviews. Significant ergonomic risk factors found included the combination of awkward postures of the neck and back, repetitive hand and arm movements, poor ergonomic workstations and prolonged working hours without adequate breaks; these risk factors resulted in musculoskeletal complaints, sick leave, and switching jobs. One aspect of improving worker health in garment factories includes addressing musculoskeletal risk factors through ergonomic interventions.

Technical specifications review of nuclear power plants: a risk-informed evaluation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Saldanha, Pedro Luiz da Cruz; Sousa, Anna Leticia; Frutuoso e Melo, Paulo Fernando Ferreira; Duarte, Juliana Pacheco

2012-01-01

The use of risk information by a regulatory body as part of an integrated decision making process addresses the way in which risk information is being used as part of an integrated process in making decisions about safety issues at nuclear plants – commonly referred to as risk-informed decision making. The risk-informed approach aims to integrate in a systematic manner quantitative and qualitative, deterministic and probabilistic safety considerations to obtain a balanced decision. Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) is a methodology that can be applied to provide a structured analysis process to evaluate the frequency and consequences of accidents scenarios in nuclear power plants. Technical Specifications (TS) are specifications regarding the characteristics of nuclear power plants (variables, systems or components) of overriding importance to nuclear safety and radiation protection, which is an integral part of plant operation authorization. Limiting Conditions of Operation (LCO) are the minimum levels of performance or capacity or operating system components required for the safe operation of nuclear plants, as defined in technical specifications. The Maintenance Rule (MR) is a requirement established by the U. S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) to check the effectiveness of maintenance carried out in nuclear plants, and plant configuration control. The control of plant configuration is necessary to verify the impact of the maintenance of a safety device out of service on plant safety. The Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) has assessed the role of probabilistic safety analysis in the regulation of nuclear power plants with the following objectives: a) to provide utilities with an approach for developing and implementing nuclear power station risk-managed technical specification programs; and b) to complement and supplement existing successful configuration risk management applications such as MR. This paper focuses on the evaluation of EPRI

OR.NET: multi-perspective qualitative evaluation of an integrated operating room based on IEEE 11073 SDC.

Science.gov (United States)

Rockstroh, M; Franke, S; Hofer, M; Will, A; Kasparick, M; Andersen, B; Neumuth, T

2017-08-01

Clinical working environments have become very complex imposing many different tasks in diagnosis, medical treatment, and care procedures. During the German flagship project OR.NET, more than 50 partners developed technologies for an open integration of medical devices and IT systems in the operating room. The aim of the present work was to evaluate a large set of the proposed concepts from the perspectives of various stakeholders. The demonstration OR is focused on interventions from the head and neck surgery and was developed in close cooperation with surgeons and numerous colleagues of the project partners. The demonstration OR was qualitatively evaluated including technical as well as clinical aspects. In the evaluation, a questionnaire was used to obtain feedback from hospital operators. The clinical implications were covered by structured interviews with surgeons, anesthesiologists and OR staff. In the present work, we qualitatively evaluate a subset of the proposed concepts from the perspectives of various stakeholders. The feedback of the clinicians indicates that there is a need for a flexible data and control integration. The hospital operators stress the need for tools to simplify risk management in openly integrated operating rooms. The implementation of openly integrated operating rooms will positively affect the surgeons, the anesthesiologists, the surgical nursing staff, as well as the technical personnel and the hospital operators. The evaluation demonstrated the need for OR integration technologies and identified the missing tools to support risk management and approval as the main barriers for future installments.

Mandatory Disclosure and Operational Risk: Evidence from Hedge Fund Registration

OpenAIRE

Stephen Brown; William Goetzmann; Bing Liang; Christopher Schwarz

2006-01-01

Mandatory disclosure is a regulatory tool intended to allow market participants to assess operational risk. We examine the value of disclosure through the controversial SEC requirement, since overturned, which required major hedge funds to register as investment advisors and file Form ADV disclosures. Leverage and ownership structures suggest that lenders and equity investors were already aware of operational risk. However, operational risk does not mediate flow-performance relationships. Inv...

ANALYSIS AND OPERATING LEVERAGE RELATIONSHIP WITH THE OPERATIONAL RISK CUBAN ENTERPRISES

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

María E. González-del Foyo

2016-01-01

Full Text Available The analysis of the equilibrium point is important in the planning process, because the relation costvolume-benefit may become significantly influenced by the investment of the company in fixed assets, and the changes in the ratio of fixed assets in relation to variable assets are determined at the moment, that the finantial plans are established. Together with the analysis of the equilibrium point, the degree of leverage is calculated and interpreted and its implicatiosn for the operative risk of an company is studied. The study of the degree of leverage and its interpretation from the operative risk point of view to which an company thats operate in different conditions and economies is faced, with is the basic objetive of the present paper and is of the highest importance for the decision taking of the management, being this a phenomenon present in all economic organizations. 

Operational Performance Risk Assessment in Support of A Supervisory Control System

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Denning, Richard S. [Self Employed; Muhlheim, Michael David [ORNL; Cetiner, Sacit M. [ORNL; Guler Yigitoglu, Askin [ORNL

2017-06-01

Supervisory control system (SCS) is developed for multi-unit advanced small modular reactors to minimize human interventions in both normal and abnormal operations. In SCS, control action decisions made based on probabilistic risk assessment approach via Event Trees/Fault Trees. Although traditional PRA tools are implemented, their scope is extended to normal operations and application is reversed; success of non-safety related system instead failure of safety systems this extended PRA approach called as operational performance risk assessment (OPRA). OPRA helps to identify success paths, combination of control actions for transients and to quantify these success paths to provide possible actions without activating plant protection system. In this paper, a case study of the OPRA in supervisory control system is demonstrated within the context of the ALMR PRISM design, specifically power conversion system. The scenario investigated involved a condition that the feed water control valve is observed to be drifting to the closed position. Alternative plant configurations were identified via OPRA that would allow the plant to continue to operate at full or reduced power. Dynamic analyses were performed with a thermal-hydraulic model of the ALMR PRISM system using Modelica to evaluate remained safety margins. Successful recovery paths for the selected scenario are identified and quantified via SCS.

Patient safety in the operating room: an intervention study on latent risk factors

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

van Beuzekom Martie

2012-06-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Patient safety is one of the greatest challenges in healthcare. In the operating room errors are frequent and often consequential. This article describes an approach to a successful implementation of a patient safety program in the operating room, focussing on latent risk factors that influence patient safety. We performed an intervention to improve these latent risk factors (LRFs and increase awareness of patient safety issues amongst OR staff. Methods Latent risk factors were studied using a validated questionnaire applied to the OR staff before and after an intervention. A pre-test/post-test control group design with repeated measures was used to evaluate the effects of the interventions. The staff from one operating room of an university hospital acted as the intervention group. Controls consisted of the staff of the operating room in another university hospital. The outcomes were the changes in LRF scores, perceived incident rate, and changes in incident reports between pre- and post-intervention. Results Based on pre-test scores and participants’ key concerns about organizational factors affecting patient safety in their department the intervention focused on the following LRFs: Material Resources, Training and Staffing Recourses. After the intervention, the intervention operating room - compared to the control operating room - reported significantly fewer problems on Material Resources and Staffing Resources and a significantly lower score on perceived incident rate. The contribution of technical factors to incident causation decreased significantly in the intervention group after the intervention. Conclusion The change of state of latent risk factors can be measured using a patient safety questionnaire aimed at these factors. The change of the relevant risk factors (Material and Staffing resources concurred with a decrease in perceived and reported incident rates in the relevant categories. We conclude that

Operational Risk Management in Financial Institutions: A Literature Review

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Suren Pakhchanyan

2016-10-01

Full Text Available Following the three-pillar structure of the Basel II/III framework, the article categorises and surveys 279 academic papers on operational risk in financial institutions, covering the period from 1998 to 2014. In doing so, different lines of both theoretical and empirical directions for research are identified. In addition, this study provides an overview of existing consortia databases and other publicly available sources on operational loss that may be incorporated into empirical research, as well as in risk measurement processes by financial institutions. Finally, this paper highlights the research gaps in operational risk and outlines recommendations for further research.

An Improved Distortion Operator for Insurance Risks

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

GAO Jian-wei; QIU Wan-hua

2002-01-01

This paper reviews the distortion function approach developed in the actuarial literature for insurance risks. The main aim of this paper is to derive an extensive distortion operator, and to propose a new premium principle based on this extensive distortion operator. Furthermore, the non-robustness of general distortion operator is also discussed. Examples are provided using Bernoulli, Pareto, Lognormal and Gamma distribution assumptions.

AIRMEN AS BOLD RISK TAKERS REDEFINING RISK TO ACHIEVE OPERATIONAL AGILITY

Science.gov (United States)

2017-04-15

scenarios27, and emotion tends to cloud perceptions of risk.28 Also, as the frequency of feedback on a given situation increases, aversion to loss...are not brand new or emerging technology such that there is still limited intelligence on them—do not significantly increase operational risk. Those

Risk Analysis Based on AHP and Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation for Maglev Train Bogie

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chengxin Fan

2016-01-01

Full Text Available The maglev bogie is the key subsystem for maglev train security. To ensure life and property security, it is essential to evaluate its risk level before its operation. In this paper, a combinational method of analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation is proposed to assess hazards in a complex maglev bogie system associated with multiple subsystems’ failures. The very comprehensive identification of risk sources has been done by analyzing the structure of maglev bogie. Furthermore, based on the fuzzy theory, linguistic evaluation set is classified according to risk tolerance. The score of each risk factor is obtained by weighted sum of the result of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation. Our results show that the degree of maglev bogie’s risk is within the range of acceptability. The merits of this work facilitate finding the weak links and determining the maintenance of maglev bogie system.

Evaluation of potential severe accidents during low power and shutdown operations at Grand Gulf, Unit 1: Evaluation of severe accident risks for plant operational state 5 during a refueling outage. Main report and appendices, Volume 6, Part 1

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brown, T.D.; Kmetyk, L.N.; Whitehead, D.; Miller, L.; Forester, J.; Johnson, J.

1995-03-01

Traditionally, probabilistic risk assessments (PRAS) of severe accidents in nuclear power plants have considered initiating events potentially occurring only during full power operation. Recent studies and operational experience have, however, implied that accidents during low power and shutdown could be significant contributors to risk. In response to this concern, in 1989 the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) initiated an extensive program to carefully examine the potential risks during low power and shutdown operations. Two plants, Surry (pressurized water reactor) and Grand Gulf (boiling water reactor), were selected as the plants to be studied. The program consists of two parallel projects being performed by Brookhaven National Laboratory (Surry) and Sandia National Laboratories (Grand Gulf). The program objectives include assessing the risks of severe accidents initiated during plant operational states other than full power operation and comparing the estimated risks with the risk associated with accidents initiated during full power operation as assessed in NUREG-1150. The scope of the program is that of a Level-3 PRA. The subject of this report is the PRA of the Grand Gulf Nuclear Station, Unit 1. The Grand Gulf plant utilizes a 3833 MWt BUR-6 boiling water reactor housed in a Mark III containment. The Grand Gulf plant is located near Port Gibson, Mississippi. The regime of shutdown analyzed in this study was plant operational state (POS) 5 during a refueling outage, which is approximately Cold Shutdown as defined by Grand Gulf Technical Specifications. The entire PRA of POS 5 is documented in a multi-volume NUREG report (NUREG/CR-6143). The internal events accident sequence analysis (Level 1) is documented in Volume 2. The Level 1 internal fire and internal flood analyses are documented in Vols 3 and 4, respectively

Evaluation of potential severe accidents during low power and shutdown operations at Grand Gulf, Unit 1: Evaluation of severe accident risks for plant operational state 5 during a refueling outage. Main report and appendices, Volume 6, Part 1

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Brown, T.D.; Kmetyk, L.N.; Whitehead, D.; Miller, L. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Forester, J. [Science Applications International Corp., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Johnson, J. [GRAM, Inc., Albuquerque, NM (United States)

1995-03-01

Traditionally, probabilistic risk assessments (PRAS) of severe accidents in nuclear power plants have considered initiating events potentially occurring only during full power operation. Recent studies and operational experience have, however, implied that accidents during low power and shutdown could be significant contributors to risk. In response to this concern, in 1989 the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) initiated an extensive program to carefully examine the potential risks during low power and shutdown operations. Two plants, Surry (pressurized water reactor) and Grand Gulf (boiling water reactor), were selected as the plants to be studied. The program consists of two parallel projects being performed by Brookhaven National Laboratory (Surry) and Sandia National Laboratories (Grand Gulf). The program objectives include assessing the risks of severe accidents initiated during plant operational states other than full power operation and comparing the estimated risks with the risk associated with accidents initiated during full power operation as assessed in NUREG-1150. The scope of the program is that of a Level-3 PRA. The subject of this report is the PRA of the Grand Gulf Nuclear Station, Unit 1. The Grand Gulf plant utilizes a 3833 MWt BUR-6 boiling water reactor housed in a Mark III containment. The Grand Gulf plant is located near Port Gibson, Mississippi. The regime of shutdown analyzed in this study was plant operational state (POS) 5 during a refueling outage, which is approximately Cold Shutdown as defined by Grand Gulf Technical Specifications. The entire PRA of POS 5 is documented in a multi-volume NUREG report (NUREG/CR-6143). The internal events accident sequence analysis (Level 1) is documented in Volume 2. The Level 1 internal fire and internal flood analyses are documented in Vols 3 and 4, respectively.

Managing IT-related operational risks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Savić Ana

2008-01-01

Full Text Available Not so long ago, information technology (IT risk occupied a small corner of operational risk - the opportunity loss from a missed IT development deadline. Today, the success of an entire financial institution may lay on managing a broad landscape of IT risks. IT risk is a potential damage to an organization's value, resulting from inadequate managing of processes and technologies. IT risk includes the failure to respond to security and privacy requirements, as well as many other issues such as: human error, internal fraud through software manipulation, external fraud by intruders, obsolesce in applications and machines, reliability issues or mismanagement. The World Economic Forum provides best information about this problem. They rank a breakdown of critical information infrastructure among the most likely core global risks, with 10-20 % likelihood over the next 10 years and potential worldwide impact of $250 billion. Sustained investment in IT - almost $1.2 trillion or 29% of 2006 private-sector capital investment in the U.S. alone fuels growing exposure to IT risk. Greg Hughes, chief strategy officer in Symantec Corp. recently claimed "IT risk management is more than using technology to solve security problems. With proper planning and broad support, it can give an organization the confidence to innovate, using IT to outdistance competitors".

Managing risks and hazardous in industrial operations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Almaula, S.C. [Woodward-Clyde International, Oakland, CA (United States)

1996-12-31

The main objective of this paper is to demonstrate that it makes good business sense to identify risks and hazards of an operation and take appropriate steps to manage them effectively. Developing and implementing an effective risk and hazard management plan also contibutes to other industry requirements and standards. Development of a risk management system, key elements of a risk management plan, and hazards and risk analysis methods are outlined. Comparing potential risk to the cost of prevention is also discussed. It is estimated that the cost of developing and preparing the first risk management plan varies between $50,000 to $200,000. 3 refs., 2 figs., 1 tab.

Use of an operating microscope during spine surgery is associated with minor increases in operating room times and no increased risk of infection.

Science.gov (United States)

Basques, Bryce A; Golinvaux, Nicholas S; Bohl, Daniel D; Yacob, Alem; Toy, Jason O; Varthi, Arya G; Grauer, Jonathan N

2014-10-15

Retrospective database review. To evaluate whether microscope use during spine procedures is associated with increased operating room times or increased risk of infection. Operating microscopes are commonly used in spine procedures. It is debated whether the use of an operating microscope increases operating room time or confers increased risk of infection. The American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program database, which includes data from more than 370 participating hospitals, was used to identify patients undergoing elective spinal procedures with and without the use of an operating microscope for the years 2011 and 2012. Bivariate and multivariate linear regressions were used to test the association between microscope use and operating room times. Bivariate and multivariate logistic regressions were similarly conducted to test the association between microscope use and infection occurrence within 30 days of surgery. A total of 23,670 elective spine procedures were identified, of which 2226 (9.4%) used an operating microscope. The average patient age was 55.1±14.4 years. The average operative time (incision to closure) was 125.7±82.0 minutes.Microscope use was associated with minor increases in preoperative room time (+2.9 min, P=0.013), operative time (+13.2 min, Pmicroscope and nonmicroscope groups for occurrence of any infection, superficial surgical site infection, deep surgical site infection, organ space infection, or sepsis/septic shock, regardless of surgery type. We did not find operating room times or infection risk to be significant deterrents for use of an operating microscope during spine surgery. 3.

Risk estimation and evaluation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ferguson, R A.D.

1982-10-01

Risk assessment involves subjectivity, which makes objective decision making difficult in the nuclear power debate. The author reviews the process and uncertainties of estimating risks as well as the potential for misinterpretation and misuse. Risk data from a variety of aspects cannot be summed because the significance of different risks is not comparable. A method for including political, social, moral, psychological, and economic factors, environmental impacts, catastrophes, and benefits in the evaluation process could involve a broad base of lay and technical consultants, who would explain and argue their evaluation positions. 15 references. (DCK)

Reduction of work-related musculoskeletal risk factors following ergonomics education of sewing machine operators.

Science.gov (United States)

Bulduk, Sıdıka; Bulduk, Emre Özgür; Süren, Tufan

2017-09-01

Work-related musculoskeletal disorders (WMSDs) are a major hazard for sewing machine operators. Ergonomics education is recommended for reducing musculoskeletal disorders at workstations. This study aimed to evaluate the effect of an ergonomics education in reducing the exposure to risk factors for WMSDs among sewing machine operators. In this study of 278 workers, their exposure to the risk of WMSDs was assessed using the quick exposure check scale prior to them attending an ergonomics education programme and then again 3 months after the programme. The scores for risk exposure before the education programme were moderate for back (static) and back (dynamic), high for shoulder/arm and very high for wrist/hand and neck. The results obtained 3 months later were low for back (static) and shoulder/arm, and moderate for back (dynamic), wrist/hand and neck. Based on our results, ergonomics education can reduce the exposure to risk factors for WMSDs in the workplace.

Evaluation of potential severe accidents during low power and shutdown operations at Surry, Unit 1: Evaluation of severe accident risk during mid-loop operations. Main report. Volume 6. Part 1

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jo, J.; Lin, C.C.; Neymotin, L. [Brookhaven National Lab., Upton, NY (United States)] [and others

1995-05-01

During 1989, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) initiated an extensive program to carefully examine the potential risks during low power and shutdown operations. The program includes two parallel projects being performed by Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) and Sandia National Laboratories (SNL). Two plants, Surry (pressurized water reactor) and Grand Gulf (boiling water reactor), were selected as the plants to be studied. The objectives of the program are to assess the risks of severe accidents initiated during plant operational states other than full power operation and to compare the estimated core damage frequencies, important accident sequences and other qualitative and quantitative results with those accidents initiated during full power operation as assessed in NUREG-1150. The scope of the program includes that of a level-3 PRA. A phased approach was used in the level-1 program. In phase 1 which was completed in Fall 1991, a coarse screening analysis including internal fire and flood was performed for all plant operational states (POSs). The objective of the phase 1 study was to identify potential vulnerable plant configurations, to characterize (on a high, medium, or low basis) the potential core damage accident scenarios, and to provide a foundation for a detailed phase 2 analysis. In phase 2, mid-loop operation was selected as the plant configuration to be analyzed based on the results of the phase 1 study. The objective of the phase 2 study is to perform a detailed analysis of the potential accident scenarios that may occur during mid-loop operation, and compare the results with those of NUREG-1150. The results of the phase 2 level 2/3 study are the subject of this volume of NUREG/CR-6144, Volume 6.

Evaluation of potential severe accidents during low power and shutdown operations at Surry, Unit 1: Evaluation of severe accident risk during mid-loop operations. Main report. Volume 6. Part 1

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jo, J.; Lin, C.C.; Neymotin, L.

1995-05-01

During 1989, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) initiated an extensive program to carefully examine the potential risks during low power and shutdown operations. The program includes two parallel projects being performed by Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) and Sandia National Laboratories (SNL). Two plants, Surry (pressurized water reactor) and Grand Gulf (boiling water reactor), were selected as the plants to be studied. The objectives of the program are to assess the risks of severe accidents initiated during plant operational states other than full power operation and to compare the estimated core damage frequencies, important accident sequences and other qualitative and quantitative results with those accidents initiated during full power operation as assessed in NUREG-1150. The scope of the program includes that of a level-3 PRA. A phased approach was used in the level-1 program. In phase 1 which was completed in Fall 1991, a coarse screening analysis including internal fire and flood was performed for all plant operational states (POSs). The objective of the phase 1 study was to identify potential vulnerable plant configurations, to characterize (on a high, medium, or low basis) the potential core damage accident scenarios, and to provide a foundation for a detailed phase 2 analysis. In phase 2, mid-loop operation was selected as the plant configuration to be analyzed based on the results of the phase 1 study. The objective of the phase 2 study is to perform a detailed analysis of the potential accident scenarios that may occur during mid-loop operation, and compare the results with those of NUREG-1150. The results of the phase 2 level 2/3 study are the subject of this volume of NUREG/CR-6144, Volume 6

Operational tools to build a multicriteria territorial risk scale with multiple stakeholders

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cailloux, Olivier; Mayag, Brice; Meyer, Patrick; Mousseau, Vincent

2013-01-01

Evaluating and comparing the threats and vulnerabilities associated with territorial zones according to multiple criteria (industrial activity, population, etc.) can be a time-consuming task and often requires the participation of several stakeholders. Rather than a direct evaluation of these zones, building a risk assessment scale and using it in a formal procedure permits to automate the assessment and therefore to apply it in a repeated way and in large-scale contexts and, provided the chosen procedure and scale are accepted, to make it objective. One of the main difficulties of building such a formal evaluation procedure is to account for the multiple decision makers' preferences. The procedure used in this article, ELECTRE TRI, uses the performances of each territorial zone on multiple criteria, together with preferential parameters from multiple decision makers, to qualitatively assess their associated risk level. We also present operational tools in order to implement such a procedure in practice, and show their use on a detailed example

UNIX-based operating systems robustness evaluation

Science.gov (United States)

Chang, Yu-Ming

1996-01-01

Robust operating systems are required for reliable computing. Techniques for robustness evaluation of operating systems not only enhance the understanding of the reliability of computer systems, but also provide valuable feed- back to system designers. This thesis presents results from robustness evaluation experiments on five UNIX-based operating systems, which include Digital Equipment's OSF/l, Hewlett Packard's HP-UX, Sun Microsystems' Solaris and SunOS, and Silicon Graphics' IRIX. Three sets of experiments were performed. The methodology for evaluation tested (1) the exception handling mechanism, (2) system resource management, and (3) system capacity under high workload stress. An exception generator was used to evaluate the exception handling mechanism of the operating systems. Results included exit status of the exception generator and the system state. Resource management techniques used by individual operating systems were tested using programs designed to usurp system resources such as physical memory and process slots. Finally, the workload stress testing evaluated the effect of the workload on system performance by running a synthetic workload and recording the response time of local and remote user requests. Moderate to severe performance degradations were observed on the systems under stress.

Risk mitigation strategies for operations and maintenance activities.

Science.gov (United States)

2012-04-01

The objective of this research was to investigate the application of integrated risk modeling to operations and maintenance activities, specifically moving operations, such as pavement testing, pavement marking, painting, snow removal, shoulder work,...

Risk Analysis Based on AHP and Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation for Maglev Train Bogie

OpenAIRE

Fan, Chengxin; Dou, Fengshan; Tong, Baiming; Long, Zhiqiang

2016-01-01

The maglev bogie is the key subsystem for maglev train security. To ensure life and property security, it is essential to evaluate its risk level before its operation. In this paper, a combinational method of analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation is proposed to assess hazards in a complex maglev bogie system associated with multiple subsystems’ failures. The very comprehensive identification of risk sources has been done by analyzing the structure of maglev bogie. Furt...

Cascade reservoir flood control operation based on risk grading and warning in the Upper Yellow River

Science.gov (United States)

Xuejiao, M.; Chang, J.; Wang, Y.

2017-12-01

Flood risk reduction with non-engineering measures has become the main idea for flood management. It is more effective for flood risk management to take various non-engineering measures. In this paper, a flood control operation model for cascade reservoirs in the Upper Yellow River was proposed to lower the flood risk of the water system with multi-reservoir by combining the reservoir flood control operation (RFCO) and flood early warning together. Specifically, a discharge control chart was employed to build the joint RFCO simulation model for cascade reservoirs in the Upper Yellow River. And entropy-weighted fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method was adopted to establish a multi-factorial risk assessment model for flood warning grade. Furthermore, after determining the implementing mode of countermeasures with future inflow, an intelligent optimization algorithm was used to solve the optimization model for applicable water release scheme. In addition, another model without any countermeasure was set to be a comparative experiment. The results show that the model developed in this paper can further decrease the flood risk of water system with cascade reservoirs. It provides a new approach to flood risk management by coupling flood control operation and flood early warning of cascade reservoirs.

A Risk Assessment Architecture for Enhanced Engine Operation

Science.gov (United States)

Litt, Jonathan S.; Sharp. Lauren M.; Guo, Ten-Huei

2010-01-01

On very rare occasions, in-flight emergencies have occurred that required the pilot to utilize the aircraft's capabilities to the fullest extent possible, sometimes using actuators in ways for which they were not intended. For instance, when flight control has been lost due to damage to the hydraulic systems, pilots have had to use engine thrust to maneuver the plane to the ground and in for a landing. To assist the pilot in these situations, research is being performed to enhance the engine operation by making it more responsive or able to generate more thrust. Enabled by modification of the propulsion control, enhanced engine operation can increase the probability of a safe landing during an inflight emergency. However, enhanced engine operation introduces risk as the nominal control limits, such as those on shaft speed, temperature, and acceleration, are exceeded. Therefore, an on-line tool for quantifying this risk must be developed to ensure that the use of an enhanced control mode does not actually increase the overall danger to the aircraft. This paper describes an architecture for the implementation of this tool. It describes the type of data and algorithms required and the information flow, and how the risk based on engine component lifing and operability for enhanced operation is determined.

The Operational Risk in the Outlook of the Basel II Accord Implementation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andrei Tinca

2007-05-01

Full Text Available The financial scandals în the last two decades have determined the Basel Committee to improve the risk controls for banks în general, and for operational risk in particular. Operational risk covers all non-market or credit risk, therefore including management risk, IT and fraud risk. By the Basel II Accord, the Committee proposes three risk measurement methods, which induce increasing costs, but also greater reductions în a bank’s capital reserve, and thus în its operating costs.

Dysphagia after vertical sleeve gastrectomy: Evaluation of risk factors and assessment of endoscopic intervention

OpenAIRE

Nath, Anand; Yewale, Sayali; Tran, Tung; Brebbia, John S; Shope, Timothy R; Koch, Timothy R

2016-01-01

AIM To evaluate the risks of medical conditions, evaluate gastric sleeve narrowing, and assess hydrostatic balloon dilatation to treat dysphagia after vertical sleeve gastrectomy (VSG). METHODS VSG is being performed more frequently worldwide as a treatment for medically-complicated obesity, and dysphagia is common post-operatively. We hypothesize that post-operative dysphagia is related to underlying medical conditions or narrowing of the gastric sleeve. This is a retrospective, single insti...

Evaluation of test intervals strategies with a risk monitor

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Soerman, J.

2005-01-01

The Swedish nuclear power utility Oskarshamn Power Group (OKG), is investigating how the use of a risk monitor can facilitate and improve risk-informed decision-making at their nuclear power plants. The intent is to evaluate if risk-informed decision-making can be accepted. A pilot project was initiated and carried out in 2004. The project included investigating if a risk monitor can be used for optimising test intervals for diesel- and gas turbine generators with regard to risk level. The Oskarhamn 2 (O2), PSA Level 1 model was converted into a risk monitor using RiskSpectrum RiskWatcher (RSRW) software. The converted PSA model included the complete PSA model for the power operation mode. RSRW then performs a complete requantification for every analysis. Time dependent reliability data are taken into account, i.e. a shorter test interval will increases the components availability (possibility to e.g. start on demand). The converted O2 model was then used to investigate whether it would be possible to balance longer test intervals for diesel generators, gas turbine generators and high pressure injection system with shorter test intervals for the low pressure injection system, while maintaining a low risk level at the plant. The results show that a new mixture of test intervals can be implemented with only marginally changes in the risk calculated with the risk monitor model. The results indicate that the total number of test activities for the systems included in the pilot study could be reduced by 20% with a maintained level of risk. A risk monitor taking into account the impact from test intervals in availability calculations for components is well suited for evaluation of test interval strategies. It also enables the analyst to evaluate the risk level over a period of time including the impact the actual status of the plant may have on the risk level. (author)

The risk evaluation of a model of a high-level waste solidification plant

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bruecher, H.

1977-02-01

In this report the risk associated with the operation of a plant for vitrification of high-level liquid waste is evaluated. Considerung risk assessment it turns out that the important accidents occur during off-gas cleaning. On the other hand effects of explosions in the process equipment don't contribute very much to the overall risk. These data are compared with the risk resulting from routine discharge of the plant. It is of the same magnitude as or greater than the most important accident risks. (orig.) [de

Evaluating North Carolina Food Pantry Food Safety-Related Operating Procedures.

Science.gov (United States)

Chaifetz, Ashley; Chapman, Benjamin

2015-11-01

Almost one in seven American households were food insecure in 2012, experiencing difficulty in providing enough food for all family members due to a lack of resources. Food pantries assist a food-insecure population through emergency food provision, but there is a paucity of information on the food safety-related operating procedures used in the pantries. Food pantries operate in a variable regulatory landscape; in some jurisdictions, they are treated equivalent to restaurants, while in others, they operate outside of inspection regimes. By using a mixed methods approach to catalog the standard operating procedures related to food in 105 food pantries from 12 North Carolina counties, we evaluated their potential impact on food safety. Data collected through interviews with pantry managers were supplemented with observed food safety practices scored against a modified version of the North Carolina Food Establishment Inspection Report. Pantries partnered with organized food bank networks were compared with those that operated independently. In this exploratory research, additional comparisons were examined for pantries in metropolitan areas versus nonmetropolitan areas and pantries with managers who had received food safety training versus managers who had not. The results provide a snapshot of how North Carolina food pantries operate and document risk mitigation strategies for foodborne illness for the vulnerable populations they serve. Data analysis reveals gaps in food safety knowledge and practice, indicating that pantries would benefit from more effective food safety training, especially focusing on formalizing risk management strategies. In addition, new tools, procedures, or policy interventions might improve information actualization by food pantry personnel.

Risk-informed optimal routing of ships considering different damage scenarios and operational conditions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Decò, Alberto; Frangopol, Dan M.

2013-01-01

The aim of this paper is the development of a risk-informed decision tool for the optimal mission-oriented routing of ships. The strength of the hull is investigated by modeling the midship section with finite elements and by analyzing different damage levels depending on the propagation of plastification throughout the section. Vertical and horizontal flexural interaction is investigated. Uncertainties associated with geometry and material properties are accounted for by means of the implementation of the response surface method. Load effects are evaluated using strip theory. Reliability analysis is performed for several ship operational conditions and considering four different limit states. Then, risk is assessed by including the direct losses associated with five investigated damage states. The effects of corrosion on aged ships are included in the proposed approach. Polar representation of load effects, reliability, and direct risk are presented for a large spectrum of operational conditions. Finally, the optimal routing of ships is obtained by minimizing both the estimated time of arrival and the expected direct risk, which are clearly conflicting objectives. The optimization process provides feasible solutions belonging to the Pareto front. The proposed approach is applied to a Joint High Speed Sealift

Acceptability of the Risk Importance Measures in Evaluation of a Change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dimitrijevic, V. B.; Chapman, J. R.

1996-01-01

In this paper, the authors discuss insights gained from evaluating changes to plant design and operational practices. Evaluation of a change is performed in order to provide an answer to two fundamental questions: what is the impact and is the impact acceptable? In order to determine 'the acceptability of an impact', the risk-based technologies today provide various ranking schemes. They are based on the existing IPE studies or PSA models and use of standard risk importance measures. In 'ad hoc' applications of risk importance measures, the specific nature of the analyzed change is often neglected. This paper attempts to capture the most common problems in the application of importance measures, and defines the limits of this application. The authors' position is that the use of risk importance information as the sole basis to accept or reject with ranking results, after the basis for the rank is meaningfully established. (author)

Non-operative anti-caries agents and dental caries increment among adults at high caries risk: a retrospective cohort study

OpenAIRE

Chaffee, Benjamin W.; Cheng, Jing; Featherstone, John DB

2015-01-01

Background Consensus guidelines support non-operative preventives for dental caries management; yet, their use in practice is far from universal. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effectiveness of non-operative anti-caries agents in caries prevention among high caries risk adults at a university clinic where risk-based caries management is emphasized. Methods This retrospective observational study drew data from the electronic patient records of non-edentulous adult patients deeme...

The Risk Assessment of the Firm Activity Using the Operating Lever

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anca-Jarmila GUTA

2016-09-01

Full Text Available This paper aims identify the ways in which the risk generally and specifically operating the risk can compete in the failure or success of a business. For awareness phenomena, actions and events that can generate losses for the adoption of prudent behavior it is necessary in a first step to identify the types of risk that a company may face. For the company that makes the subject of this paper have revealed a risk of exploitation by means of operating leverage, expressing elasticity operating result of the company in relation to its turn over. Analysing the evolution of the society we found that increasing the volume of activity on the period under study led to an increase in operating leverage which means that society has become more risky because it involves revenue growth and increased operating costs.

Modeling operational risks of the nuclear industry with Bayesian networks

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wieland, Patricia [Pontificia Univ. Catolica do Rio de Janeiro (PUC-Rio), RJ (Brazil). Dept. de Engenharia Industrial; Comissao Nacional de Energia Nuclear (CNEN), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)], e-mail: pwieland@cnen.gov.br; Lustosa, Leonardo J. [Pontificia Univ. Catolica do Rio de Janeiro (PUC-Rio), RJ (Brazil). Dept. de Engenharia Industrial], e-mail: ljl@puc-rio.br

2009-07-01

Basically, planning a new industrial plant requires information on the industrial management, regulations, site selection, definition of initial and planned capacity, and on the estimation of the potential demand. However, this is far from enough to assure the success of an industrial enterprise. Unexpected and extremely damaging events may occur that deviates from the original plan. The so-called operational risks are not only in the system, equipment, process or human (technical or managerial) failures. They are also in intentional events such as frauds and sabotage, or extreme events like terrorist attacks or radiological accidents and even on public reaction to perceived environmental or future generation impacts. For the nuclear industry, it is a challenge to identify and to assess the operational risks and their various sources. Early identification of operational risks can help in preparing contingency plans, to delay the decision to invest or to approve a project that can, at an extreme, affect the public perception of the nuclear energy. A major problem in modeling operational risk losses is the lack of internal data that are essential, for example, to apply the loss distribution approach. As an alternative, methods that consider qualitative and subjective information can be applied, for example, fuzzy logic, neural networks, system dynamic or Bayesian networks. An advantage of applying Bayesian networks to model operational risk is the possibility to include expert opinions and variables of interest, to structure the model via causal dependencies among these variables, and to specify subjective prior and conditional probabilities distributions at each step or network node. This paper suggests a classification of operational risks in industry and discusses the benefits and obstacles of the Bayesian networks approach to model those risks. (author)

Modeling operational risks of the nuclear industry with Bayesian networks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wieland, Patricia; Lustosa, Leonardo J.

2009-01-01

Basically, planning a new industrial plant requires information on the industrial management, regulations, site selection, definition of initial and planned capacity, and on the estimation of the potential demand. However, this is far from enough to assure the success of an industrial enterprise. Unexpected and extremely damaging events may occur that deviates from the original plan. The so-called operational risks are not only in the system, equipment, process or human (technical or managerial) failures. They are also in intentional events such as frauds and sabotage, or extreme events like terrorist attacks or radiological accidents and even on public reaction to perceived environmental or future generation impacts. For the nuclear industry, it is a challenge to identify and to assess the operational risks and their various sources. Early identification of operational risks can help in preparing contingency plans, to delay the decision to invest or to approve a project that can, at an extreme, affect the public perception of the nuclear energy. A major problem in modeling operational risk losses is the lack of internal data that are essential, for example, to apply the loss distribution approach. As an alternative, methods that consider qualitative and subjective information can be applied, for example, fuzzy logic, neural networks, system dynamic or Bayesian networks. An advantage of applying Bayesian networks to model operational risk is the possibility to include expert opinions and variables of interest, to structure the model via causal dependencies among these variables, and to specify subjective prior and conditional probabilities distributions at each step or network node. This paper suggests a classification of operational risks in industry and discusses the benefits and obstacles of the Bayesian networks approach to model those risks. (author)

Evaluation of nuclear power plant operator's ability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wei Li; He Xuhong; Zhao Bingquan

2004-01-01

Based on the quantitative research on nuclear power plant (NPP) operator's psychological characteristics and performance, the Borda's method of fuzzy mathematics combined with the character of operator's task is used to evaluate their abilities. The result provides the reference for operator's reliability research and psychological evaluation. (author)

Reservoir shorelines : a methodology for evaluating operational impacts

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lawrence, M.; Braund-Read, J.; Musgrave, B. [BC Hydro, Burnaby, BC (Canada)

2009-07-01

BC Hydro has been operating hydroelectric facilities for over a century in British Columbia. The integrity and stability of the shorelines and slopes bordering hydroelectric reservoirs is affected by changing water levels in the reservoir, natural processes of flooding, wind and wave action and modification of groundwater levels. Establishing setbacks landward of the shoreline are needed in order to protect useable shoreline property that may be at risk of flooding, erosion or instability due to reservoir operations. Many of the reservoirs in British Columbia are situated in steep, glaciated valleys with diverse geological, geomorphological and climatic conditions and a variety of eroding shorelines. As such, geotechnical studies are needed to determine the operational impacts on reservoir shorelines. Since the 1960s BC Hydro has been developing a methodology for evaluating reservoir impacts and determining the land around the reservoir perimeter that should remain as a right of way for operations while safeguarding waterfront development. The methodology was modified in the 1990s to include geomorphological and geological processes. However, uncertainties in the methodology still exist due to limited understanding of key issues such as rates of erosion and shoreline regression, immaturity of present day reservoir shorelines and impacts of climate change. 11 refs., 1 tab., 7 figs.

Risk based limits for Operational Safety Requirements

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cappucci, A.J. Jr.

1993-01-01

OSR limits are designed to protect the assumptions made in the facility safety analysis in order to preserve the safety envelope during facility operation. Normally, limits are set based on ''worst case conditions'' without regard to the likelihood (frequency) of a credible event occurring. In special cases where the accident analyses are based on ''time at risk'' arguments, it may be desirable to control the time at which the facility is at risk. A methodology has been developed to use OSR limits to control the source terms and the times these source terms would be available, thus controlling the acceptable risk to a nuclear process facility. The methodology defines a new term ''gram-days''. This term represents the area under a source term (inventory) vs time curve which represents the risk to the facility. Using the concept of gram-days (normalized to one year) allows the use of an accounting scheme to control the risk under the inventory vs time curve. The methodology results in at least three OSR limits: (1) control of the maximum inventory or source term, (2) control of the maximum gram-days for the period based on a source term weighted average, and (3) control of the maximum gram-days at the individual source term levels. Basing OSR limits on risk based safety analysis is feasible, and a basis for development of risk based limits is defensible. However, monitoring inventories and the frequencies required to maintain facility operation within the safety envelope may be complex and time consuming

Risk factors for surgical site infection following operative ankle fracture fixation.

Science.gov (United States)

Kelly, E G; Cashman, J P; Groarke, P J; Morris, S F

2013-09-01

Ankle fracture is a common injury and there is an increasingly greater emphasis on operative fixation. The purpose of the study was to determine the complication rate in this cohort of patients and, in doing so, determine risk factors which predispose to surgical site infection. A prospective cohort study was performed at a tertiary referral trauma center examining risk factors for surgical site infection in operatively treated ankle fractures. Univariate and multivariate analysis was performed. Female gender and advancing age were determined to be the risk factors in univariate analysis. Drain usage and peri-operative pyrexia were found to be significant for infection in multivariate analysis. This study allows surgeons to identify those at increased risk of infection and counsel them appropriately. It also allows for a high level of vigilance with regard to soft tissue handling intra-operatively in this higher risk group.

Operational Area Environmental Evaluations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bailey-White, Brenda Eileen [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Nagy, Michael David [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Wagner, Katrina Marie [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Goodman, Thomas Richard [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Herring, Allen [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Catechis, Christopher S. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Kinghorn, Aubrianna Nicole [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Johnson, Ellie [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Barthel, Michael David [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Casaus, Benito [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

2017-08-01

The Operational Area Environmental Evaluation update provides a description of activities that have the potential to adversely affect natural and cultural resources, including soil, air, water, biological, ecological, and historical resources. The environmental sensitivity of an area is evaluated and summarized, which may facilitate informed management decisions as to where development may be prohibited, restricted, or subject to additional requirements.

Business operations and decommissioning strategy for imperial college London research reactor 'Consort' - A financial risk management approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Franklin, S.J.; Gardner, D.; Mumford, J.; Lea, R.; Knight, J.

2005-01-01

Imperial College London (IC) operates commercially a 100 kW research reactor, and as site licensee is responsible for funding both operations and eventual decommissioning. With long lead times ahead urgent decisions on the future business options have had to be made in 2004/5 including choices on whether to move to early decommissioning, recognising the high costs entailed, or to pursue continuing operations involving life extension measures such as refuelling. To develop a coherent overall approach strategy a financial risk driven programme was initiated to help define a robust transparent business and termination case for the reactor. This study was carried out in collaboration with a UK firm of financial risk experts, PURE Risk Management Ltd (PURE), working within a dedicated IC London reactor project team. This work evaluated immediate closure options due to financial constraints or life limiting failures, and options for continuing operation extending to 2028. Decommissioning and clean up were reviewed. Bespoke financial models created single value cost outputs and ranges of probabilistic net present values (NPV) for decommissioning costs and financial provisions to meet those costs at various levels of risk acceptance and regulatory compliance. (author)

Safety indicators as a tool for operational safety evaluation of nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Araujo, Jefferson Borges; Melo, Paulo Fernando Ferreira Frutuoso e; Schirru, Roberto

2009-01-01

Performance indicators have found a wide use in the conventional and nuclear industries. For the conventional industry, the goal is to optimize production, reducing loss of time with accidents, human error and equipment downtimes. In the nuclear industry, nuclear safety is an additional goal. This paper presents a general methodology to the establishment, selection and use of safety indicators for a two loop PWR plant, as Angra 1. The use of performance indicators is not new. The NRC has its own methodology and the IAEA presents methodology suggestions, but there is no detailed documentation about indicators selection, criteria and bases used. Additionally, only the NRC methodology performs a limited integrated evaluation. The study performed identifies areas considered critical for the plant operational safety. For each of these areas, strategic sub-areas are defined. For each strategic sub-area, specific safety indicators are defined. These proposed Safety Indicators are based on the contribution to risk considering a quantitative risk analysis. For each safety indicator, a goal, a bounded interval and proper bases are developed, to allow for a clear and comprehensive individual behavior evaluation. On the establishment of the intervals and boundaries, a probabilistic safety study, operational experience, international and national standards and technical specifications were used. Additionally, an integrated evaluation of the indicators, using expert systems, was done to obtain an overview of the plant general safety. This evaluation uses well-defined and clear rules and weights for each indicator to be considered. These rules were implemented by means of a computational language, on a friendly interface, so that it is possible to obtain a quick response about operational safety. This methodology can be used to identify situations where the plant safety is challenged, by giving a general overview of the plant operational condition. Additionally, this study can

Comparison of Qualitative and Quantitative Risk Results for Shutdown Operation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Oh, Hae Cheol; Kim, Myung Ki; Chung, Bag Soon; Seo, Mi Ro; Hong, Sung Yull

2006-01-01

The Defense-In-Depth philosophy is a fundamental concept of nuclear safety. The objective of Defense-In- Depth (DID) evaluation is to assess the level of Defense- In-Depth maintained during the various plant maintenance activities. Especially for shutdown and outage operations, the Defense-In-Depth might be challenged due to the reduction in redundancy and diversity resulting from the maintenance. The qualitative defense-in-depth evaluation using deterministic trees such as SFAT (Safety Function Assessment Tree), can provide 'Safety' related information on the levels of defense-in-depth according to the plant configuration including the levels of redundancy and diversity. For the more reasonable color decision of SFAT, it is necessary to identify the risk impact of degradation of redundancy and diversity of mitigation systems. The probabilistic safety analysis for the shutdown status can provide risk information related on the degradation of redundancy and diversity level for the safety functions during outage. Insights from the both methods for the plant status can be the same or different. The results of DID approach and PSA for the shutdown state are compared in this paper

76 FR 57767 - Proposed Generic Communication; Draft NRC Generic Letter 2011-XX: Seismic Risk Evaluations for...

Science.gov (United States)

2011-09-16

... NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION [NRC-2011-0204] Proposed Generic Communication; Draft NRC Generic Letter 2011-XX: Seismic Risk Evaluations for Operating Reactors AGENCY: Nuclear Regulatory Commission... FR 54507), that requested public comment on Draft NRC Generic Letter 2011- XX: Seismic Risk...

Judging risk behaviour and risk preference: the role of the evaluative connotation of risk terms.

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van Schie, E.C.M.; van der Pligt, J.; van Baaren, K.

1993-01-01

Two experiments investigated the impact of the evaluative connotation of risk terms on the judgment of risk behavior and on risk preference. Exp 1 focused on the evaluation congruence of the risk terms with a general risk norm and with Ss' individual risk preference, and its effects on the extremity

A Nonparametric Operational Risk Modeling Approach Based on Cornish-Fisher Expansion

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xiaoqian Zhu

2014-01-01

Full Text Available It is generally accepted that the choice of severity distribution in loss distribution approach has a significant effect on the operational risk capital estimation. However, the usually used parametric approaches with predefined distribution assumption might be not able to fit the severity distribution accurately. The objective of this paper is to propose a nonparametric operational risk modeling approach based on Cornish-Fisher expansion. In this approach, the samples of severity are generated by Cornish-Fisher expansion and then used in the Monte Carlo simulation to sketch the annual operational loss distribution. In the experiment, the proposed approach is employed to calculate the operational risk capital charge for the overall Chinese banking. The experiment dataset is the most comprehensive operational risk dataset in China as far as we know. The results show that the proposed approach is able to use the information of high order moments and might be more effective and stable than the usually used parametric approach.

Evaluation of the sanitary and environmental risks resulting from the Erika sinking and from the coasts cleaning operations; Evaluation des risques sanitaires et environnementaux resultant du naufrage de l'ERIKA et des operations de nettoyage des cotes

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Cicolella, A

2000-03-15

This synthesis presents the methodology of the risks evaluation and of the INERIS report, the products analysis, general data on polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, the exposure evaluation, the sanitary impact evaluation for the polycyclic organic hydrocarbons and volatile organic compounds and the evaluation of ecological risks. (A.L.B.)

Operational Risk Assessment and Management in Small and Medium-sized Enterprises

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Viktorija Stasytytė

2015-07-01

Full Text Available Modern organizations have raised a need to actively and quickly react to the changes in external business environment, as well as in internal processes considering not only the present situation, but also evaluating possible changes and forecasting the future. Enterprise risk assessment and management, which is strongly related with foreseeing the uncertain future, becomes topical not only scientifically, but also practically seeking to reveal new and unique solutions. Operational risk management in small and medium enterprises, creating the largest part of value added in the whole European Union, demands a separate attention and coordinated decisions and means. The objective of the paper – to analyse the process of enterprise risk management in small and medium-sized enterprises, as well as to propose adequate risk management solutions for these companies. After performing a research, it was found out that small and medium enterprises more than big organizations require a risk management strategy and methodology, need to distinguish activity objectives and events influencing them, and they can efficiently apply a risk portfolio method to manage risk. In small and medium enterprises it is recommended to incorporate a risk management system based on COSO ERM model that can be modified depending on company needs and possibilities, turning it into less formal and structured and easily applicable.

Operational Implementation of a Pc Uncertainty Construct for Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Newman, Lauri K.; Hejduk, Matthew D.; Johnson, Lauren C.

2016-01-01

Earlier this year the NASA Conjunction Assessment and Risk Analysis (CARA) project presented the theoretical and algorithmic aspects of a method to include the uncertainties in the calculation inputs when computing the probability of collision (Pc) between two space objects, principally uncertainties in the covariances and the hard-body radius. The output of this calculation approach is to produce rather than a single Pc value an entire probability density function that will represent the range of possible Pc values given the uncertainties in the inputs and bring CA risk analysis methodologies more in line with modern risk management theory. The present study provides results from the exercise of this method against an extended dataset of satellite conjunctions in order to determine the effect of its use on the evaluation of conjunction assessment (CA) event risk posture. The effects are found to be considerable: a good number of events are downgraded from or upgraded to a serious risk designation on the basis of consideration of the Pc uncertainty. The findings counsel the integration of the developed methods into NASA CA operations.

Nuclear risk and optimal civil liability of the operator

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schmitt, Andre; Spaeter, Sandrine

2007-01-01

The civil liability of nuclear operators are regulated by two sets of international Conventions. In particular, strict liability, limited financial responsibility and the obligation of providing financial guaranties are imposed to the nuclear operator by the Paris Convention and the Vienna Convention. Then national legislations are free to increase the financial cap of responsibility fixed by the international regimes. First we present the main elements of these Conventions. Then we focus on the impact of a modification in the amount of responsibility of the nuclear operator on his risk mitigation policy and on his financial condition. In particular we show that an increase of the cap beyond a given level determined by the model gives the operator some incentives to lessen the investment in prevention, contrary to what is expected. Besides, the impact of the preventive activities done by the firm on its financial constraint depends on the sensitivity of the risk distribution to the variation of the prevention level: The risk mitigation activities must be discussed with respect to the severity of the incidents and/or to the size of the nuclear park

INTRODUCTION TO THE SPECIAL ISSUE ON "OPERATIONAL RESEARCH AND ASIA RISK MANAGEMENT"

OpenAIRE

DESHENG DASH WU; DAVID L. OLSON; LUIS A. SECO; JOHN BIRGE

2011-01-01

Risks are traditionally defined as the combination of probability and severity, but are actually characterized by additional factors. We believe the characteristics of risks include uncertainties, dynamics, dependence, clusterings and complexities, which motivate the utilization of various operational research tools. The objective of this issue is to survey the practice of using operational research tools in risk management, especially Asian risk management.

Operative Start Time Does Not Affect Post-Operative Infection Risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Guidry, Christopher A; Davies, Stephen W; Willis, Rhett N; Dietch, Zachary C; Shah, Puja M; Sawyer, Robert G

2016-10-01

Surgical care is delivered 24 h a day at most institutions. Alarmingly, some authors have found that certain operative start times are associated with greater morbidity and mortality rates. This effect has been noted in both the public and private sector. Although some of these differences may be related to process, they may also be caused by the human circadian rhythm and corresponding changes in host defenses. We hypothesized that the time of day of an operation would impact the frequency of certain post-operative outcomes significantly. Cases at a single tertiary-care center reported to the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program over a 10-year period were identified. Operative start times were divided into six-hour blocks, with 6 am to noon serving as the reference. Standard univariable techniques were applied. Multivariable logistic regression with mixed effects modeling then was used to determine the relation between operative start times and infectious outcomes, controlling for surgeon clustering. Statistical significance was set at p operative infectious complication. Seventy percent of these infections (n = 1,506) were surgical site infections. On univariable analysis considering all cases, nighttime and evening operations had higher rates of post-operative infections than those in performed during the day (9.1% from 6 am to noon; 9.7% from noon to 6 pm; 14.8% from 6 pm to midnight; and 14.4% from midnight to 6 am; p operative start time was not associated with the risk of post-operative infection, even when emergency cases were considered independently. Our data suggest that operative start times have no correlation with post-operative infectious complications. Further work is required to identify the source of the time-dependent outcome variability observed in previous studies.

A Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Model for Sustainability Risk Evaluation of PPP Projects

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Libiao Bai

2017-10-01

Full Text Available Evaluating the sustainability risk level of public–private partnership (PPP projects can reduce project risk incidents and achieve the sustainable development of the organization. However, the existing studies about PPP projects risk management mainly focus on exploring the impact of financial and revenue risks but ignore the sustainability risks, causing the concept of “sustainability” to be missing while evaluating the risk level of PPP projects. To evaluate the sustainability risk level and achieve the most important objective of providing a reference for the public and private sectors when making decisions on PPP project management, this paper constructs a factor system of sustainability risk of PPP projects based on an extensive literature review and develops a mathematical model based on the methods of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model (FCEM and failure mode, effects and criticality analysis (FMECA for evaluating the sustainability risk level of PPP projects. In addition, this paper conducts computational experiment based on a questionnaire survey to verify the effectiveness and feasibility of this proposed model. The results suggest that this model is reasonable for evaluating the sustainability risk level of PPP projects. To our knowledge, this paper is the first study to evaluate the sustainability risk of PPP projects, which would not only enrich the theories of project risk management, but also serve as a reference for the public and private sectors for the sustainable planning and development. Keywords: sustainability risk eva

Probabilistic Risk Assessment for Decision Making During Spacecraft Operations

Science.gov (United States)

Meshkat, Leila

2009-01-01

Decisions made during the operational phase of a space mission often have significant and immediate consequences. Without the explicit consideration of the risks involved and their representation in a solid model, it is very likely that these risks are not considered systematically in trade studies. Wrong decisions during the operational phase of a space mission can lead to immediate system failure whereas correct decisions can help recover the system even from faulty conditions. A problem of special interest is the determination of the system fault protection strategies upon the occurrence of faults within the system. Decisions regarding the fault protection strategy also heavily rely on a correct understanding of the state of the system and an integrated risk model that represents the various possible scenarios and their respective likelihoods. Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) modeling is applicable to the full lifecycle of a space mission project, from concept development to preliminary design, detailed design, development and operations. The benefits and utilities of the model, however, depend on the phase of the mission for which it is used. This is because of the difference in the key strategic decisions that support each mission phase. The focus of this paper is on describing the particular methods used for PRA modeling during the operational phase of a spacecraft by gleaning insight from recently conducted case studies on two operational Mars orbiters. During operations, the key decisions relate to the commands sent to the spacecraft for any kind of diagnostics, anomaly resolution, trajectory changes, or planning. Often, faults and failures occur in the parts of the spacecraft but are contained or mitigated before they can cause serious damage. The failure behavior of the system during operations provides valuable data for updating and adjusting the related PRA models that are built primarily based on historical failure data. The PRA models, in turn

Risk-based evaluation of Allowed Outage Times (AOTs) considering risk of shutdown

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mankamo, T.; Kim, I.S.; Samanta, P.K.

1992-01-01

When safety systems fail during power operation, Technical Specifications (TS) usually limit the repair within Allowed Outage Time (AOT). If the repair cannot be completed within the AOT, or no AOT is allowed, the plant is required to be shut down for the repair. However, if the capability to remove decay heat is degraded, shutting down the plant with the need to operate the affected decay-heat removal systems may impose a substantial risk compared to continued power operation over a usual repair time. Thus, defining a proper AOT in such situations can be considered as a risk-comparison between the repair in frill power state with a temporarily increased level of risk, and the altemative of shutting down the plant for the repair in zero power state with a specific associated risk. The methodology of the risk-comparison approach, with a due consideration of the shutdown risk, has been further developed and applied to the AOT considerations of residual heat removal and standby service water systems of a boiling water reactor (BWR) plant. Based on the completed work, several improvements to the TS requirements for the systems studied can be suggested

Operational Risk Measurement of Chinese Commercial Banks Based on Extreme Value Theory

Science.gov (United States)

Song, Jiashan; Li, Yong; Ji, Feng; Peng, Cheng

The financial institutions and supervision institutions have all agreed on strengthening the measurement and management of operational risks. This paper attempts to build a model on the loss of operational risks basing on Peak Over Threshold model, emphasizing on weighted least square, which improved Hill’s estimation method, while discussing the situation of small sample, and fix the sample threshold more objectively basing on the media-published data of primary banks loss on operational risk from 1994 to 2007.

Operator performance evaluation using multi criteria decision making methods

Science.gov (United States)

Rani, Ruzanita Mat; Ismail, Wan Rosmanira; Razali, Siti Fatihah

2014-06-01

Operator performance evaluation is a very important operation in labor-intensive manufacturing industry because the company's productivity depends on the performance of its operators. The aims of operator performance evaluation are to give feedback to operators on their performance, to increase company's productivity and to identify strengths and weaknesses of each operator. In this paper, six multi criteria decision making methods; Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), fuzzy AHP (FAHP), ELECTRE, PROMETHEE II, Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) and VlseKriterijumska Optimizacija I Kompromisno Resenje (VIKOR) are used to evaluate the operators' performance and to rank the operators. The performance evaluation is based on six main criteria; competency, experience and skill, teamwork and time punctuality, personal characteristics, capability and outcome. The study was conducted at one of the SME food manufacturing companies in Selangor. From the study, it is found that AHP and FAHP yielded the "outcome" criteria as the most important criteria. The results of operator performance evaluation showed that the same operator is ranked the first using all six methods.

A two-stage method of quantitative flood risk analysis for reservoir real-time operation using ensemble-based hydrologic forecasts

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, P.

2013-12-01

Quantitative analysis of the risk for reservoir real-time operation is a hard task owing to the difficulty of accurate description of inflow uncertainties. The ensemble-based hydrologic forecasts directly depict the inflows not only the marginal distributions but also their persistence via scenarios. This motivates us to analyze the reservoir real-time operating risk with ensemble-based hydrologic forecasts as inputs. A method is developed by using the forecast horizon point to divide the future time into two stages, the forecast lead-time and the unpredicted time. The risk within the forecast lead-time is computed based on counting the failure number of forecast scenarios, and the risk in the unpredicted time is estimated using reservoir routing with the design floods and the reservoir water levels of forecast horizon point. As a result, a two-stage risk analysis method is set up to quantify the entire flood risks by defining the ratio of the number of scenarios that excessive the critical value to the total number of scenarios. The China's Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR) is selected as a case study, where the parameter and precipitation uncertainties are implemented to produce ensemble-based hydrologic forecasts. The Bayesian inference, Markov Chain Monte Carlo, is used to account for the parameter uncertainty. Two reservoir operation schemes, the real operated and scenario optimization, are evaluated for the flood risks and hydropower profits analysis. With the 2010 flood, it is found that the improvement of the hydrologic forecast accuracy is unnecessary to decrease the reservoir real-time operation risk, and most risks are from the forecast lead-time. It is therefore valuable to decrease the avarice of ensemble-based hydrologic forecasts with less bias for a reservoir operational purpose.

Risk-based configuration control: Application of PSA in improving technical specifications and operational safety

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Samanta, P.K.; Kim, I.S.; Vesely, W.E.

1992-01-01

Risk-based configuration control is the management of component configurations using a risk perspective to control risk and assure safety. A configuration, as used here, is a set of component operability statuses that define the state of a nuclear power plant. If the component configurations that have high risk implications do not occur, then the risk from the operation of nuclear power plants would be minimal. The control of component configurations, i.e., the management of component statuses, to minimize the risk from components being unavailable, becomes difficult, because the status of a standby safety system component is often not apparent unless it is tested. Controlling plant configuration from a risk-perspective can provide more direct risk control and also more operational flexibility by allowing looser controls in areas unimportant to risk. Risk-based configuration control approaches can be used to replace parts of nuclear power plant Technical Specifications. With the advances in probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) technology, such approaches to improve Technical Specifications and operational safety are feasible. In this paper, we present an analysis of configuration risks, and a framework for risk-based configuration control to achieve the desired control of risk-significant configurations during plant operation

The relationship between operating risk and accounting conservatism: Evidence from Iranian banking industry

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mehdi Taghavi

2014-04-01

Full Text Available The purpose of this study is to analyze the relationship between operational risk and accounting conservatism. The criterion used for operational risk in this study is asset volatility and for accounting conservatism, we use Ball and Shivakumar (2005 model [Ball, R., & Shivakumar, L. (2005. Earnings quality in UK private firms: comparative loss recognition timeliness. Journal of Accounting and Economics, 39(1, 83-128.], which analyzes accounting from balance sheet sight. The statistical society used in this study is taken from 15 banks in Tehran Stock Exchange over the period 2006-2012. The research result demonstrates that there was a negative relationship between operational risk and accounting conservatism. In other words, there is a significant negative relationship between operational risk and accounting conservatism. Hence, the results suggest that with an increase (decrease in operational risk, accounting conservatism decreases (increases.

Risk-Based Operation and Maintenance of Offshore Wind Turbines

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nielsen, Jannie Jessen; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

2009-01-01

For offshore wind turbines costs to operation and maintenance are substantial. This paper describes a risk-based lifecycle approach for optimal planning of operation and maintenance. The approach is based on pre-posterior Bayesian decision theory. Deterioration mechanisms such as fatigue, corrosion...

A review of operational risk in banks and its role in the financial crisis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Erika de Jongh

2013-11-01

Full Text Available The role of operational risk in the 2007/2008 financial crisis is explored. The factors that gave rise to the crisis are examined and it is found that although the event is largely regarded as a credit crisis, operational risk factors played a significant role in fuelling its duration and severity. It is concluded that, from an operational risk perspective, 2008 was the worst on record. Considering the extensive role of operational risk in global financial calamities, suggestions are made to improve the management of this risk type.

Non-operative anti-caries agents and dental caries increment among adults at high caries risk: a retrospective cohort study.

Science.gov (United States)

Chaffee, Benjamin W; Cheng, Jing; Featherstone, John D B

2015-09-24

Consensus guidelines support non-operative preventives for dental caries management; yet, their use in practice is far from universal. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effectiveness of non-operative anti-caries agents in caries prevention among high caries risk adults at a university clinic where risk-based caries management is emphasized. This retrospective observational study drew data from the electronic patient records of non-edentulous adult patients deemed to be at high risk for dental caries during baseline oral evaluations that were completed between July 1, 2007 and December 31, 2012 at a dental university in the United States. We calculated and compared adjusted mean estimates for the number of new decayed or restored teeth (DFT increment) from baseline to the next completed oral evaluation (N = 2,724 patients with follow-up) across three categories of delivery of non-operative anti-caries agents (e.g., high-concentration fluoride toothpaste, chlorhexidine rinse, xylitol products): never, at a single appointment, or at ≥2 appointments ≥4 weeks apart. Estimates were adjusted for patient and provider characteristics, baseline dental status, losses-to-follow-up, and follow-up time. Approximately half the patients did not receive any form of non-operative anti-caries agent. Most that received anti-caries agents were given more than one type of product in combination. One-time delivery of anti-caries agents was associated with a similar DFT increment as receiving no such therapy (difference in increment: -0.04; 95% CI: -0.28, 0.21). However, repeated, spaced delivery of anti-caries agents was associated with approximately one decayed or restored tooth prevented over 18 months for every three patients treated (difference in increment: -0.35; 95% CI: -0.65, -0.08). These results lend evidence that repeatedly receiving anti-caries agents can reduce tooth decay among high-risk patients engaged in regular dental care.

Treatment of operator actions in the HTGR risk assessment study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fleming, K.N.; Silady, F.A.; Hannaman, G.W.

1979-12-01

Methods are presented for the treatment of operator actions, developed in the AIPA risk assessment study. Some examples are given of how these methods were applied to the analysis of potential HTGR accidents. Realistic predictions of accident risks required a balanced treatment of both beneficial and detrimental actions and responses of human operators and maintenance crews. Th essential elements of the human factors methodology used in the AIPA study include event tree and fault tree analysis, time-dependent operator response and repair models, a method for quantifying common cause failure probabilities, and synthesis of relevant experience data for use in these models

Evaluation Logic of Main Control Board Fire Risk

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kang, Dae Il; Kim, Kilyoo; Lim, Ho Gon [KAERI, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2015-05-15

The main control board (MCB) is defined as the collection of control panels inside the main control room (MCR) of a nuclear power plant (NPP). As the MCB has the control and instrumentation circuits of redundant trains for almost all plant systems, small fires within the control panels may be detrimental to the safe shutdown capability. A big fire affecting many panels in the MCB can cause a forced MCR abandonment of the operators as well as function failures or spurious operations of the control and instrumentation-related components. If the MCR cannot be habitable, a safe shutdown from outside the MCR can be achieved and maintained at an alternate shutdown panel electrically and physically independent from the MCR. Because the MCB consist of many electrical panels, it may have internal barriers between them to prevent a fire from spreading from its origin to neighboring locations. However, most MCBs of domestic NPPs do not have internal barriers within them. If the MCB cabinets are not separated by a double wall with an air gap, the fire propagation of an MCB panel fire cannot be ruled out. Recently, Joglar et al. proposed a new evaluation logic for the MCB panel fires and mentioned that an MCB fire can be divided into propagation and non-propagating fires for abandonment and non-abandonment fire scenarios. However, they did not present the details on the fire modeling approaches and probability formulas for the fire scenarios. In this paper, a decision tree for evaluating the risk of an MCB fire is proposed to systematically determine the fire scenarios in terms of the fire modeling approaches. This paper proposed a decision tree for evaluating the risk of an MCB fire to systematically determine the fire scenarios in terms of fire modeling approaches.

MAPPING FRAUD RISK IN FINANCIAL AUDIT – SALES OPERATIONS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ioan RADU

2013-10-01

Full Text Available This paper provides an effective tool «fraud risk map« for organizations and auditors in mathematic assessment procedures, with real, tangible results, regarding the organization’s fraud risk exposure. Overcoming the fade and purely theoretical risk assessment methods («based on professional judgement – risk: high, medium, low«, the paper presents risk indicators as warning signals and quantitative and qualitative methods for risk assessment. Illustrating scalability methods and developping a practical tools for material misstatement of the economic entity financial statements, the case study presented, on sales operations, brigs added value to auditors work in the fraud risk assessment procedures.

A "Toy" Model for Operational Risk Quantification using Credibility Theory

OpenAIRE

Hans B\\"uhlmann; Pavel V. Shevchenko; Mario V. W\\"uthrich

2009-01-01

To meet the Basel II regulatory requirements for the Advanced Measurement Approaches in operational risk, the bank's internal model should make use of the internal data, relevant external data, scenario analysis and factors reflecting the business environment and internal control systems. One of the unresolved challenges in operational risk is combining of these data sources appropriately. In this paper we focus on quantification of the low frequency high impact losses exceeding some high thr...

WORK PRECARIOUSNESS: ERGONOMIC RISKS TO OPERATORS OF MACHINES ADAPTED FOR FOREST HARVESTING

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Stanley Schettino

Full Text Available ABSTRACT This study aimed to assess different types of machines adapted for mechanized forest harvesting activities in order to quantify the degree of compliance with ergonomic principles applicable to forest machines, as well as the ergonomic risks to which workers are exposed. The following machines were evaluated: a feller buncher adapted into a wheel loader; a mini skidder coupled to an agricultural tractor; and a forest loader adapted to an agricultural tractor; operating in the states of Paraná and Minas Gerais. Biomechanical working conditions were assessed by applying a checklist for simplified assessment of the workplace biomechanical conditions. The forced postures assessment was performed using the REBA - "Rapid Entire Body Assessment" method. In turn, ergonomic classification was through guidelines contained in the ergonomic classification manual "Ergonomic Guidelines for Forest Machines". Moreover, the environmental factors noise, temperature and vibration to which the operators of these machines were exposed were assessed. The results showed all assessed machines had ergonomic standards below those indicated in all assessed aspects, mainly related to access and dimensions of the workplace, need to adopt forced postures during working hours, and exposure to environmental factors assessed above tolerance limits. It is concluded that machines adapted for use in forest harvesting processes have shown significant gaps in relation to ergonomic aspects, presenting high and imminent risk of development of occupational diseases in their operators.

Prioritization of motor operated valves based on risk importances

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vesely, W.E.; Weidenhamer, G.H.

1994-01-01

The plant Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) can be a potentially useful and powerful tool for helping to define an effective response to GL 89-10. The plant PRA can be used to prioritize the Motor Operated Valves (MOV) dynamic test. The plant PRA can also be used to determine test schedules for the MOVs. In order for the PRA to be validly used to respond to GL 89-10, various issues need to be validly addressed. Eleven issues are specifically identified and responses to these issues are outlined. The issues of joint MOV importance, PRA truncation, and validation of the proposed approach are specifically highlighted and more detailed response considerations are described. As in all PRA applications, sensitivity studies and uncertainty considerations should be incorporated in the PRA evaluations. 4 refs, 3 tabs

Ethical and affective evaluation of environmental risks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bohm, G.; Pfister, H.R.

1998-01-01

Full text of publication follows: the present paper will be concerned with environmental risk perception, with special emphasis on those environmental risks that pertain to global change phenomena, such as climate change and ozone depletion. Two determinants of risk judgments are investigated that seem particularly relevant to environmental risks: ethical and affective evaluations. It is assumed that the focus of risk evaluation can be on one of two aspects: a) on an evaluation of potential losses, or b) on ethical considerations. We assume that both, potential loss and violation of ethical principles elicit emotional evaluations, but that these two judgmental aspects are associated with different specific emotions. Following cognitive emotion theories, we distinguish loss-based emotions, such as worry and fear, from ethical emotions, e.g., guilt and anger. A study is presented that investigates the role of ethical and affective evaluations in risk judgments. Various environmental risks were presented to subjects, e.g., air pollution, ozone depletion, climate change and destruction of ecological balance. For each environmental risk, subjects indicated in free-response format as well as on rating scales the extent to which ethical principles were violated, and the intensity of both loss-based and ethical emotions. The correlational structure of the emotion ratings confirms the distinction between loss-based and ethical emotions. Risk judgments co-vary with the strength of ethical evaluation and with the intensity of loss-based emotions, but are independent of ethical emotions. The implications of these findings for the risk appraisal process are discussed. (authors)

International co-operation in nuclear data evaluation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nordborg, C.

2003-01-01

The NEA Working Party on International Nuclear Data Evaluation Co-operation serves as a forum for the exchange of information on required improvements to evaluated nuclear data libraries used in all nuclear application areas. The main objective is to identify the major discrepancies in existing evaluated data libraries and to resolve these discrepancies in specifically established expert groups. The long-term goal is to have converging evaluated data libraries. This co-operative effort is very successful. It has resolved a number of outstanding nuclear data problems and has issued 15 reports in support of the studies undertaken jointly. (author)

A Comparison of the Views of Internal Controllers/Auditors and Branch/Call Center Personnel of the Banks for Operational Risk: A Case for Turkish Banking Sector

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sinemis Zengin

2016-10-01

Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to compare the views of internal controllers/auditors and branch/call center personnel of the banks with respect to the operational risk. Within this scope, we made two different surveys to the personnel in Turkish banks in order to achieve this objective. The first survey was conducted by 310 branch and call center personnel whereas 151 personnel in internal control and audit departments of the banks carried out the second survey. The major finding in this study is that there is a difference in the views of these two groups regarding the evaluation of operational risk. In general, internal controllers/auditors look at the operational risk more negatively than branch/call center personnel. The personnel who control and audit operations in the bank think that operational risk knowledge level of branch/call center personnel is less sufficient, operational risk levels are higher, the controls to avoid this risk are less efficient than branch/call center personnel consider.

Preparing Safety Cases for Operating Outside Prescriptive Fatigue Risk Management Regulations.

Science.gov (United States)

Gander, Philippa; Mangie, Jim; Wu, Lora; van den Berg, Margo; Signal, Leigh; Phillips, Adrienne

2017-07-01

Transport operators seeking to operate outside prescriptive fatigue management regulations are typically required to present a safety case justifying how they will manage the associated risk. This paper details a method for constructing a successful safety case. The method includes four elements: 1) scope (prescriptive rules and operations affected); 2) risk assessment; 3) risk mitigation strategies; and 4) monitoring ongoing risk. A successful safety case illustrates this method. It enables landing pilots in 3-pilot crews to choose the second or third in-flight rest break, rather than the regulatory requirement to take the third break. Scope was defined using a month of scheduled flights that would be covered (N = 4151). These were analyzed in the risk assessment using existing literature on factors affecting fatigue to estimate the maximum time awake at top of descent and sleep opportunities in each break. Additionally, limited data collected before the new regulations showed that pilots flying at landing chose the third break on only 6% of flights. A prospective survey comparing subjective reports (N = 280) of sleep in the second vs. third break and fatigue and sleepiness ratings at top of descent confirmed that the third break is not consistently superior. The safety case also summarized established systems for fatigue monitoring, risk assessment and hazard identification, and multiple fatigue mitigation strategies that are in place. Other successful safety cases have used this method. The evidence required depends on the expected level of risk and should evolve as experience with fatigue risk management systems builds.Gander P, Mangie J, Wu L, van den Berg M, Signal L, Phillips A. Preparing safety cases for operating outside prescriptive fatigue risk management regulations. Aerosp Med Hum Perform. 2017; 88(7):688-696.

Operational risk in bank governance and control: How to save capital requirement through a risk transfer strategy. Evidences from a simulated case study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Enzo Scannella

2015-06-01

Full Text Available Operational risk management in banking has assumed such importance during the last decade. It has become increasingly important to measure, manage, and assess the impact of operational risk in the economics of banking. The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate how an effective operational risk management provides mitigating effects on capital-at-risk in banking. The paper provides evidences that an implementation of an operational risk transfer strategy reduces bank capital requirement. The paper adopts the loss distribution approach, the Monte Carlo simulation, and copula methodologies to estimate the regulatory capital and simulate an operational risk transfer strategy in banking.

Cost Model for Risk Assessment of Company Operation in Audit

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. V.

2017-12-01

Full Text Available This article explores the approach to assessing the risk of company activities termination by building a cost model. This model gives auditors information on managers’ understanding of factors influencing change in the value of assets and liabilities, and the methods to identify it in more effective and reliable ways. Based on this information, the auditor can assess the adequacy of use of the assumption on continuity of company operation by management personnel when preparing financial statements. Financial uncertainty entails real manifestations of factors creating risks of the occurrence of costs, revenue losses due their manifestations, which in the long run can be a reason for termination of company operation, and, therefore, need to be foreseen in the auditor’s assessment of the adequacy of use of the continuity assumption when preparing financial statements by company management. The purpose of the study is to explore and develop a methodology for use of cost models to assess the risk of termination of company operation in audit. The issue of methodology for assessing the audit risk through analyzing methods for company valuation has not been dealt with. The review of methodologies for assessing the risks of termination of company operation in course of audit gives grounds for the conclusion that use of cost models can be an effective methodology for identification and assessment of such risks. The analysis of the above methods gives understanding of the existing system for company valuation, integrated into the management system, and the consequences of its use, i. e. comparison of the asset price data with the accounting data and the market value of the asset data. Overvalued or undervalued company assets may be a sign of future sale or liquidation of a company, which may signal on high probability of termination of company operation. A wrong choice or application of valuation methods can be indicative of the risk of non

EVALUATION OF RISKS AND WASTE CHARACTERIZATION REQUIREMENTS FOR THE TRANSURANIC WASTE EMPLACED IN WIPP DURING 1999

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Channell, J.K.; Walker, B.A.

2000-01-01

Specifically this report: 1. Compares requirements of the WAP that are pertinent from a technical viewpoint with the WIPP pre-Permit waste characterization program, 2. Presents the results of a risk analysis of the currently emplaced wastes. Expected and bounding risks from routine operations and possible accidents are evaluated; and 3. Provides conclusions and recommendations

Technology Evaluation for Environmental Risk Mitigation Compendium

Science.gov (United States)

Meinhold, A.; Greene, B.; Dussich, J.; Sorkin, A.; Olsen, W.

2017-01-01

The Technology Evaluation for Environmental Risk Mitigation (TEERM) Principal Center and its predecessor organization the Acquisition Pollution Prevention Program (AP2) supported the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) in identifying technology solutions to risks and costs to NASA programs driven by environmental regulations and requirements. TEERM researched the commercial and government marketplace to locate viable and available technologies that met NASAs needs. TEERM focused on addressing environmentally-driven risks of direct concern to NASA programs and facilities, including hazardous materials in NASA operations and materials that became obsolescent because of environmental regulations. TEERM projects aimed to reduce cost; ensure the health and safety of people, assets, and the environment; promote efficiency; and minimize duplication. Major TEERM and AP2 projects focused on waste minimization and hazardous waste treatment, recycling, corrosion prevention and control, solvent and ozone depleting substances substitution, and aqueous based cleaners. In 2017, NASA made the decision to terminate the TEERM Principal Center. This Compendium Report documents TEERM and AP2 project successes. The Compendium Report traces the evolution of TEERM based on evolving risks and requirements for NASA and its relationship to the Space Shuttle Program, the United States Department of Defense, the European Space Agency, and other public and private stakeholders. This Compendium Report also documents project details from Project Summaries and Joint Test Plans and describes project stakeholders and collaborative effort results.

Issues in Value-at-Risk Modeling and Evaluation

NARCIS (Netherlands)

J. Daníelsson (Jón); C.G. de Vries (Casper); B.N. Jorgensen (Bjørn); P.F. Christoffersen (Peter); F.X. Diebold (Francis); T. Schuermann (Til); J.A. Lopez (Jose); B. Hirtle (Beverly)

1998-01-01

textabstractDiscusses the issues in value-at-risk modeling and evaluation. Value of value at risk; Horizon problems and extreme events in financial risk management; Methods of evaluating value-at-risk estimates.

A quantitative and comparative evaluation of the risks from nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vignes, S.; Bertin, M.; Nenot, J.C.

1980-01-01

All the significant data for the assessment of risks from the operation of nuclear power plants was collected and these risks were compared with all the risks of modern life. The scientific bases for the evaluation of individual risks and detriment were defined by UNSCEAR (1977) and by ICRP 26 (1978). In different industries, the risk of death from long term occupational illness is about 130 to 14,000 per million workers. For accidental deaths, the risk is estimated at about 16 to 1,600. The risk for the nuclear industry is lower than 100 per million workers. Comparisons are made with different causes of lethality: deaths from atmospheric pollution (sulfur compounds and dusts) related to fossile fuel combustion; iatrogenic accidents attributed to some drugs used in medicine or to other kind of treatment; calculated mortality for workers exposed to asestosis. The nuclear industr of the safest. The only risk to be considered is the major accident, the probability of which is very low. (H.K.)

The nuclear industry's transition to risk-informed regulation and operation in the United States

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kadak, Andrew C.; Matsuo, Toshihiro

2007-01-01

This paper summarizes a study of the transition of the United States nuclear industry from a prescriptive regulatory structure to a more risk informed approach to operations and regulations. The transition occurred over a 20 yr period in which gradual changes were made in the fundamental regulations and to the approach to nuclear safety and operations. While the number of actual regulatory changes were few, they are continuing. The utilities that embraced risk informed operations made dramatic changes in the way they approached operations and outage management. Those utilities that used risk in operations showed dramatic improvement in safety based on Institute of Nuclear Power Operations (INPO) performance indicators. It was also shown that the use of risk did not negatively affect safety performance of the plants compared to standard prescriptive approaches. This was despite having greater flexibility in compliance to regulatory standards and the use of the newly instituted risk-informed reactor oversight process. Key factors affecting the successful transition to a more risk-informed approach to regulations and operations are: strong top management support and leadership both at the regulator and the utility; education and training in risk principles and probabilistic risk Assessment tools for engineers, operators and maintenance staff; a slow and steady introduction of risk initiatives in areas that can show value to both the regulator and the industry; a transparent regulatory foundation built around a safety goal policy and the development of a strong safety culture at the utility to allow for more independence in safety compliance and risk management. The experience of the United States shows positive results in both safety and economics. The INPO and NRC metrics presented show that the use of risk information in operations and regulation is marginally better with no degradation in safety when plants that have embraced risk-informed approaches are compared

Loss distribution approach for operational risk capital modelling under Basel II: Combining different data sources for risk estimation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Pavel V. Shevchenko

2013-07-01

Full Text Available The management of operational risk in the banking industry has undergone significant changes over the last decade due to substantial changes in operational risk environment. Globalization, deregulation, the use of complex financial products and changes in information technology have resulted in exposure to new risks very different from market and credit risks. In response, Basel Committee for banking Supervision has developed a regulatory framework, referred to as Basel II, that introduced operational risk category and corresponding capital requirements. Over the past five years, major banks in most parts of the world have received accreditation under the Basel II Advanced Measurement Approach (AMA by adopting the loss distribution approach (LDA despite there being a number of unresolved methodological challenges in its implementation. Different approaches and methods are still under hot debate. In this paper, we review methods proposed in the literature for combining different data sources (internal data, external data and scenario analysis which is one of the regulatory requirement for AMA.

Risk-based configuration control: Application of PRA in improving technical specifications and operational safety

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Samanta, P.K.; Kim, I.S.; Vesely, W.E.

1991-01-01

The objective of risk-based configuration control is to detect and control plant configurations form a risk perspective. The configurations of particular interest involve components which are down during power operation. Controlling plant configurations from a risk-perspective can provide more direct risk control and also more operational flexibility by allowing looser control in areas unimportant to risk

Designing and operating infrastructure for nonstationary flood risk management

Science.gov (United States)

Doss-Gollin, J.; Farnham, D. J.; Lall, U.

2017-12-01

Climate exhibits organized low-frequency and regime-like variability at multiple time scales, causing the risk associated with climate extremes such as floods and droughts to vary in time. Despite broad recognition of this nonstationarity, there has been little theoretical development of ideas for the design and operation of infrastructure considering the regime structure of such changes and their potential predictability. We use paleo streamflow reconstructions to illustrate an approach to the design and operation of infrastructure to address nonstationary flood and drought risk. Specifically, we consider the tradeoff between flood control and conservation storage, and develop design and operation principles for allocating these storage volumes considering both a m-year project planning period and a n-year historical sampling record. As n increases, the potential uncertainty in probabilistic estimates of the return periods associated with the T-year extreme event decreases. As the duration m of the future operation period decreases, the uncertainty associated with the occurrence of the T-year event also increases. Finally, given the quasi-periodic nature of the system it may be possible to offer probabilistic predictions of the conditions in the m-year future period, especially if m is small. In the context of such predictions, one can consider that a m-year prediction may have lower bias, but higher variance, than would be associated with using a stationary estimate from the preceding n years. This bias-variance trade-off, and the potential for considering risk management for multiple values of m, provides an interesting system design challenge. We use wavelet-based simulation models in a Bayesian framework to estimate these biases and uncertainty distributions and devise a risk-optimized decision rule for the allocation of flood and conservation storage. The associated theoretical development also provides a methodology for the sizing of storage for new

A quantitative evaluation of a qualitative risk assessment framework: Examining the assumptions and predictions of the Productivity Susceptibility Analysis (PSA)

Science.gov (United States)

2018-01-01

Qualitative risk assessment frameworks, such as the Productivity Susceptibility Analysis (PSA), have been developed to rapidly evaluate the risks of fishing to marine populations and prioritize management and research among species. Despite being applied to over 1,000 fish populations, and an ongoing debate about the most appropriate method to convert biological and fishery characteristics into an overall measure of risk, the assumptions and predictive capacity of these approaches have not been evaluated. Several interpretations of the PSA were mapped to a conventional age-structured fisheries dynamics model to evaluate the performance of the approach under a range of assumptions regarding exploitation rates and measures of biological risk. The results demonstrate that the underlying assumptions of these qualitative risk-based approaches are inappropriate, and the expected performance is poor for a wide range of conditions. The information required to score a fishery using a PSA-type approach is comparable to that required to populate an operating model and evaluating the population dynamics within a simulation framework. In addition to providing a more credible characterization of complex system dynamics, the operating model approach is transparent, reproducible and can evaluate alternative management strategies over a range of plausible hypotheses for the system. PMID:29856869

BARC-risk monitor- a tool for operational safety assessment in nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vinod, Gopika; Saraf, R.K.; Babar, A.K.; Hadap, Nikhil

2000-12-01

Probabilistic safety assessment has become a key tool as on today to identify and understand nuclear power plant vulnerabilities. As a result of the availability of these PSA studies, there is a desire to use them to enhance plant safety and to operate the nuclear stations in the most efficient manner. Risk monitor is a PC based tool, which computes the real time safety level and assists plant personnel to manage day-to-day activities. Risk monitor is a PC based user friendly software tool used for modification and re-analysis of a nuclear power plant. Operation of risk monitor is based on PSA methods for assisting in day to day applications. Risk monitoring programs can assess the risk profile and are used to optimise the operation of nuclear power plants with respect to a minimum risk level over the operating time. This report presents the background activities of risk monitor, its application areas and also gives the status of such tools in international scenarios. The software is based on the PSA model of Kaiga generating station and would be applicable to similar design configuration. (author)

RISK EVALUATION OF PIN JIG WORK UNIT IN SHIPBUILDING BY USING FUZZY AHP METHOD

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Murat Ozkok

2015-03-01

Full Text Available Shipbuilding industry includes many different industry branches in itself so various kind of work accidents occur. These work accidents often cause serious injuries and also deaths. It is a crucial thing to prevent or minimize these accidents. In order to reduce work accidents in shipyards, the most hazardous activities are needed to be determined and then, shipyard management must work on it in order to remove these hazard sources. In this study, pin jig work unit, where the curved parts are mounted on adjustable pin jigs, was considered. At first, the work activities and operations of pin jig work station were identified and they were classified as main and sub risk criterions. Then, pair comparison scales were built and these risk criterions were evaluated by experts who have been working for a shipyard located in Turkey. As a result of the evaluations of the experts, the risk weights of the activities carried out at pin jig work unit were defined by using fuzzy AHP method. Therefore, it is aimed for the shipyard management to take some precautions at pinjig work unit on the risky operations before failures happen.

Prediction of chronic post-operative pain: pre-operative DNIC testing identifies patients at risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Yarnitsky, David; Crispel, Yonathan; Eisenberg, Elon; Granovsky, Yelena; Ben-Nun, Alon; Sprecher, Elliot; Best, Lael-Anson; Granot, Michal

2008-08-15

Surgical and medical procedures, mainly those associated with nerve injuries, may lead to chronic persistent pain. Currently, one cannot predict which patients undergoing such procedures are 'at risk' to develop chronic pain. We hypothesized that the endogenous analgesia system is key to determining the pattern of handling noxious events, and therefore testing diffuse noxious inhibitory control (DNIC) will predict susceptibility to develop chronic post-thoracotomy pain (CPTP). Pre-operative psychophysical tests, including DNIC assessment (pain reduction during exposure to another noxious stimulus at remote body area), were conducted in 62 patients, who were followed 29.0+/-16.9 weeks after thoracotomy. Logistic regression revealed that pre-operatively assessed DNIC efficiency and acute post-operative pain intensity were two independent predictors for CPTP. Efficient DNIC predicted lower risk of CPTP, with OR 0.52 (0.33-0.77 95% CI, p=0.0024), i.e., a 10-point numerical pain scale (NPS) reduction halves the chance to develop chronic pain. Higher acute pain intensity indicated OR of 1.80 (1.28-2.77, p=0.0024) predicting nearly a double chance to develop chronic pain for each 10-point increase. The other psychophysical measures, pain thresholds and supra-threshold pain magnitudes, did not predict CPTP. For prediction of acute post-operative pain intensity, DNIC efficiency was not found significant. Effectiveness of the endogenous analgesia system obtained at a pain-free state, therefore, seems to reflect the individual's ability to tackle noxious events, identifying patients 'at risk' to develop post-intervention chronic pain. Applying this diagnostic approach before procedures that might generate pain may allow individually tailored pain prevention and management, which may substantially reduce suffering.

Quantitative risk analysis in two pipelines operated by TRANSPETRO

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Garcia, Claudio B. [PETROBRAS Transporte S/A (TRANSPETRO), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Pinho, Edson [Universidade Federal Rural do Rio de Janeiro (UFRRJ), Seropedica, RJ (Brazil); Bittencourt, Euclides [Centro Universitario FIB, Salvador , BA (Brazil)

2009-07-01

Transportation risk analysis techniques were used to study two pipelines operated by TRANSPETRO. The Pipeline A is for the simultaneous transportation of diesel, gasoline and LPG and comprises three parts, all of them crossing rural areas. The Pipeline B is for oil transportation and one of its ends is located in an area of a high density population. Both pipelines had their risk studied using the PHAST RISK{sup R} software and the individual risk measures, the only considered measures for license purposes for this type of studies, presented level far below the maximum tolerable levels considered. (author)

Improving Operational Risk Management Using Business Performance Management Technologies

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bram Pieket Weeserik

2018-02-01

Full Text Available Operational Risk Management (ORM comprises the continuous management of risks resulting from: human actions, internal processes, systems, and external events. With increasing requirements, complexity and a growing volume of risks, information systems provide benefits for integrating risk management activities and optimizing performance. Business Performance Management (BPM technologies are believed to provide a solution for effective Operational Risk Management by offering several combined technologies including: work flow, data warehousing, (advanced analytics, reporting and dashboards. BPM technologies can be integrated with an organization’s Planning & Control cycle and related to strategic objectives. This manuscript aims to show how ORM can benefit from BPM technologies via the development and practical validation of a new maturity model. The B4ORM maturity model was developed following the Design Science Research approach. The maturity model relates specific maturity levels of ORM processes with BPM technologies applicable for a specific maturity stage. There appears to be a strong relationship (0.78 with ORM process maturity and supporting BPM technologies. The B4ORM maturity model as described in this manuscript provides an ideal path of BPM technologies related to six distinctive stages of ORM, leading towards technologies suitable for continuous improvement of ORM processes and organization-wide integration.

Investment risk evaluation techniques: use in energy-intensive industries and implications for ERDA's Industrial Conservation Program

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

None

1977-07-13

The trade-off between risk and rate-of-return in investment evaluations is crucial in assessing the commercial potential of future energy-conservation technologies. The focus of the Industrial Conservation Program at ERDA is to reduce the perceived risks of a given technology to the extent that the private sector will adopt the technology within the normal course of its business operations. These perceived risks may emanate from technical, institutional, or commercial uncertainties, or in many cases they may result merely from a company's or industry's lack of previous experience with a particular technology. Regardless of the source of the risk surrounding a project, the uncertainty it poses to the private sector will serve to inhibit decisions to invest. This study evaluates the treatment of risk in capital investments in certain energy-intensive industries which are the primary targets of ERDA's Industrial Conservation Program. These risks evaluation considerations were placed within a context that includes capital budgeting practices and procedures, organizational considerations, and basic rate-of-return evaluation procedures in the targeted energy-intensive industries (petroleum, chemicals, paper, textiles, cement, food processing, aluminum, steel, glass, and agriculture).

Evaluation of new control rooms by operator performance analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mori, M; Tomizawa, T.; Tai, I.; Monta, K.; Yoshimura, S.; Hattori, Y.

1987-01-01

An advanced supervisory and control system called PODIA TM (Plant Operation by Displayed Information and Automation) was developed by Toshiba. Since this system utilizes computer driven CRTs as a main device for information transfer to operators, thorough system integration tests were performed at the factory and evaluations were made of operators' assessment from the initial experience of the system. The PODIA system is currently installed at two BWR power plants. Based on the experiences from the development of PODIA, a more advanced man-machine interface, Advanced-PODIA (A-PODIA), is developed. A-PODIA enhances the capabilities of PODIA in automation, diagnosis, operational guidance and information display. A-PODIA has been validated by carrying out systematic experiments with a full-scope simulator developed for the validation. The results of the experiments have been analyzed by the method of operator performance analysis and applied to further improvement of the A-PODIA system. As a feedback from actual operational experience, operator performance data in simulator training is an important source of information to evaluate human factors of a control room. To facilitate analysis of operator performance, a performance evaluation system has been developed by applying AI techniques. The knowledge contained in the performance evaluation system was elicited from operator training experts and represented as rules. The rules were implemented by employing an object-oriented paradigm to facilitate knowledge management. In conclusion, it is stated that the feedback from new control room operation can be obtained at an early stage by validation tests and also continuously by comprehensive evaluation (with the help of automated tools) of operator performance in simulator training. The results of operator performance analysis can be utilized for improvement of system design as well as operator training. (author)

"Who Bravely Dares Must Sometimes Risk a Fall." The Balance Between Tactical and Operational Risk in War

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Higginbotham, Chris

2004-01-01

... in consequence to reducing operational risk. This represents a change from the way in which United States forces have historically trained for sequential attrition based, vice simultaneous maneuver operations...

Risk effectiveness evaluation of surveillance testing

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, I.S.; Samanta, P.K.; Martorell, S.; Vesely, W.E.

1991-01-01

To address the concerns about nuclear power plant surveillance tests, i.e., their adverse safety impact due to negative effects and too burdensome requirements, it is necessary to evaluate the safety significance or risk effectiveness of such tests explicitly considering both negative and positive effects. This paper defines the negative effects of surveillance testing from a risk perspective, and then presents a methodology to quantify the negative risk impact, i.e., the risk penalty or risk increase caused by the test. The method focuses on two important kinds of negative effects, namely, test-caused transients and test-caused equipment degradations. The concepts and quantitative methods for the risk evaluation can be used in the decision-making process to establish the safety significance of the tests and to screen the plant-specific surveillance test requirements. 6 refs., 2 figs., 2 tabs

Use of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) in expert systems to advise nuclear plant operators and managers

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Uhrig, R.E.

1988-01-01

The use of expert systems in nuclear power plants to provide advice to managers, supervisors and/or operators is a concept that is rapidly gaining acceptance. Generally, expert systems rely on the expertise of human experts or knowledge that has been codified in publications, books, or regulations to provide advice under a wide variety of conditions. In this work, a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) of a nuclear power plant performed previously is used to assess the safety status of nuclear power plants and to make recommendations to the plant personnel. Nuclear power plants have many redundant systems and can continue to operate when one or more of these systems is disabled or removed from service for maintenance or testing. PRAs provide a means of evaluating the risk to the public associated with the operation of nuclear power plants with components or systems out of service. While the choice of the source term and methodology in a PRA may influence the absolute probability and consequences of a core melt, the ratio of the PRA calculations for two configurations of the same plant, carried out on a consistent basis, can readily identify the increase in risk associated with going from one configuration to the other

Contract Design: Risk Management and Evaluation.

Science.gov (United States)

Mühlbacher, Axel C; Amelung, Volker E; Juhnke, Christin

2018-01-12

Effective risk adjustment is an aspect that is more and more given weight on the background of competitive health insurance systems and vital healthcare systems. The risk structure of the providers plays a vital role in Pay for Performance. A prerequisite for optimal incentive-based service models is a (partial) dependence of the agent's returns on the provider's gain level. Integrated care systems as well as accountable care organisations (ACOs) in the US and similar concepts in other countries are advocated as an effective method of improving the performance of healthcare systems. These systems outline a payment and care delivery model that intends to tie provider reimbursements to predefined quality metrics. By this the total costs of care shall be reduced. Little is known about the contractual design and the main challenges of delegating "accountability" to these new kinds of organisations and/or contracts. The costs of market utilisation are highly relevant for the conception of healthcare contracts; furthermore information asymmetries and contract-specific investments are an obstacle to the efficient operation of ACOs. A comprehensive literature review on methods of designing contracts in Integrated Care was conducted. The research question in this article focuses on how reimbursement strategies, evaluation of measures and methods of risk adjustment can best be integrated in healthcare contracting. Each integrated care contract includes challenges for both payers and providers without having sufficient empirical data on both sides. These challenges are clinical, administrative or financial nature. Risk adjusted contracts ensure that the reimbursement roughly matches the true costs resulting from the morbidity of a population. If reimbursement of care provider corresponds to the actual expenses for an individual/population the problem of risk selection is greatly reduced. The currently used methods of risk adjustment have widely differing model and forecast

75 FR 50936 - Loan Policies and Operations; Lending and Leasing Limits and Risk Management

Science.gov (United States)

2010-08-18

...-AC60 Loan Policies and Operations; Lending and Leasing Limits and Risk Management AGENCY: Farm Credit... sound operation of System institutions by strengthening their risk management practices and abilities to... the establishment of consistent, uniform and prudent concentration risk management policies by System...

Dynamic operational risk management at industrial irradiation plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wieland, Patricia; Lustosa, Leonardo J.

2010-01-01

Although feasibility studies indicate that industrial irradiation can be sound business, some initiatives fail in few years. In Brazil, the operation of some industrial irradiation plants has been discontinued in spite of the growing export market for tropical fruits like mangoes and papayas, of which Brazil is one of the major producers. This paper discusses the overall aspects of the food irradiation in Brazil, singles out dynamic operation risk management as an important need and provides suggestions for further developments. This research work involves literature review as well as interviews with irradiation industry stake holders in order to identify the ORs and to assess the situation in a logical and integrated way. The results show that public acceptance is not a major issue for the food preservation industry in Brazil. On the contrary, evidences show that there is public support, provided that information on the subject is disseminated among consumers. Need for improvements have been detected in the areas of industrial operational risk management, external relations for export, and regulatory issues, among others to support decision making in establishing and developing industrial food irradiation capabilities to serve Brazilian tropical fruit exports. (author)

Operational risk assessments by supply chain professionals : process and performance

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Tazelaar, F.; Snijders, C.C.P.

2013-01-01

We consider the "process-performance paradox" in the assessment of operational risks by professionals in the field of operations and supply chain management (OSCM). The paradox states that although professionals with more expertise tend to decide in different ways, they often do not make better

An assessment of the risk significance of human errors in selected PSAs and operating events

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Palla, R.L. Jr.; El-Bassioni, A.

1991-01-01

Sensitivity studies based on Probabilistic Safety Assessments (PSAs) for a pressurized water reactor and a boiling water reactor are described. In each case human errors modeled in the PSAs were categorized according to such factors as error type, location, timing, and plant personnel involved. Sensitivity studies were then conducted by varying the error rates in each category and evaluating the corresponding change in total core damage frequency and accident sequence frequency. Insights obtained are discussed and reasons for differences in risk sensitivity between plants are explored. A separate investigation into the role of human error in risk-important operating events is also described. This investigation involved the analysis of data from the USNRC Accident Sequence Precursor program to determine the effect of operator-initiated events on accident precursor trends, and to determine whether improved training can be correlated to current trends. The findings of this study are also presented. 5 refs., 15 figs., 1 tab

Dynamic occupational risk model for offshore operations in harsh environments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Song, Guozheng; Khan, Faisal; Wang, Hangzhou; Leighton, Shelly; Yuan, Zhi; Liu, Hanwen

2016-01-01

The expansion of offshore oil exploitation into remote areas (e.g., Arctic) with harsh environments has significantly increased occupational risks. Among occupational accidents, slips, trips and falls from height (STFs) account for a significant portion. Thus, a dynamic risk assessment of the three main occupational accidents is meaningful to decrease offshore occupational risks. Bow-tie Models (BTs) were established in this study for the risk analysis of STFs considering extreme environmental factors. To relax the limitations of BTs, Bayesian networks (BNs) were developed based on BTs to dynamically assess risks of STFs. The occurrence and consequence probabilities of STFs were respectively calculated using BTs and BNs, and the obtained probabilities verified BNs' rationality and advantage. Furthermore, the probability adaptation for STFs was accomplished in a specific scenario with BNs. Finally, posterior probabilities of basic events were achieved through diagnostic analysis, and critical basic events were analyzed based on their posterior likelihood to cause occupational accidents. The highlight is systematically analyzing STF accidents for offshore operations and dynamically assessing their risks considering the harsh environmental factors. This study can guide the allocation of prevention resources and benefit the safety management of offshore operations. - Highlights: • A novel dynamic risk model for occupational accidents. • First time consideration of harsh environment in occupational accident modeling. • A Bayesian network based model for risk management strategies.

Evaluation of nutritional status as an independent predictor of post-operative complications and morbidity after gastro-intestinal surgery.

Science.gov (United States)

van der Kroft, G; Janssen-Heijnen, M L G; van Berlo, C L H; Konsten, J L M

2015-08-01

Nutritional Risk Screening-2002 (NRS-2002) and the Malnutrition Universal Screening Tool (MUST) are screening tools for nutritional risk that have also been used to predict post-operative complications and morbidity, though not all studies confirm the reliability of nutritional screening. Our study aims to evaluate the independent predictive value of nutritional risk screening in addition to currently documented medical, surgical and anesthesiological risk factors for post-operative complications, as well as length of hospital stay. This study is a prospective observational cohort study of 129 patients undergoing elective gastro-intestinal-surgery. Patients were screened for nutritional risk upon admission using both MUST and NRS-2002 screening tools. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to investigate the independent predictive value of nutritional risk for post-operative complications and length of hospital stay. MUST ≥2 (OR 2.87; 95% CI 1.05-7.87) and peri-operative transfusion (OR 2.78; 95% CI 1.05-7.40) were significant independent predictors for the occurrence of post-operative complications. Peri-operative transfusion (HR 2.40; 95% CI 1.45-4.00), age ≥70 (HR 1.50; 95% CI 1.05-2.16) and open surgery versus laparoscopic surgery (HR 1.39; 95% CI 0.94-2.05) were independent predictors for increased length of hospital stay, whereas American Society of Anesthesiology Score (ASA) and MUST were not. Nutritional risk screening (MUST ≥2) is an independent predictor for post-operative complications, but not for increased length of hospital stay. Copyright © 2015 European Society for Clinical Nutrition and Metabolism. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Credit Risk Evaluation : Modeling - Analysis - Management

OpenAIRE

Wehrspohn, Uwe

2002-01-01

An analysis and further development of the building blocks of modern credit risk management: -Definitions of default -Estimation of default probabilities -Exposures -Recovery Rates -Pricing -Concepts of portfolio dependence -Time horizons for risk calculations -Quantification of portfolio risk -Estimation of risk measures -Portfolio analysis and portfolio improvement -Evaluation and comparison of credit risk models -Analytic portfolio loss distributions The thesis contributes to the evaluatio...

Combining risk analysis and operating experience

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1986-10-01

In recent years there has been an increasing interest in the systematic utilization of operating experience in the decision making process concerning large industrial facilities. Even before the advent of Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA), operating experience had always played an important role in such decisions. Of course, operating experience has always been an input to PSA also; however, as PSA becomes more mature and the quality and quantity of operating experience improve, greater emphasis is now being placed on the use of operating experience to update and validate PSA and thereby provide a more rational basis for decision making. This report outlines the ways in which data are collected, processed using mathematical techniques and utilized in decision making. It is not intended to provide details of the methods and procedures to be used in these areas, but is rather intended as an introduction to these topics and some of the relevant literature. The meeting presentations were divided into three sessions devoted to the following topics: evaluation of nuclear power plants operational experience (5 papers); uncertainties (2 papers); probabilistic safety assessment studies in Member States (7 papers). A separate abstract was prepared for each of these papers

The effect of stressed economic conditions on operational risk loss distributions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ja'nel Esterhuysen

2010-12-01

Full Text Available The depth and duration of the credit crisis has highlighted a number of problems in modern finance. Banks have been accused of excessive risk taking, rating agencies of severe conflicts of interest, central banks of neglecting the inflation of asset price bubbles and national supervisors of lax regulatory controls. Credit and market losses have been considerable. Operational losses have also surged as surviving corporates merge or acquire less fortunate ones without the requisite controls. Furthermore, as more jobs get made redundant it is believed that people are getting forced to play their hand to get involved in internal fraud as their sources of income has dried up drastically and stealing from the institution seems to be their last resort.. The main objective of this paper is to establish if there has been a changed in the nature of operational risk with regards to the number of operational losses as well as their impact pre and during the crisis. The way in which operational losses have been affected will be presented and a comparison will be made between operational loss characteristics pre and during the crisis. Some of the main findings of this paper were that operational losses shown little change in frequency, but shown a significant increase in severity, meaning that their financial impact has been more severe during the crisis.  Therefore it is quite safe to say that the financial crisis most defiantly had an impact on operational risk as the impact of operational losses became much more severe

Assessment and prevention of the professional risks in the operations of industrial radiography

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pizzorno, M.; Paul, D.; Coletti, F.; Sari Minodier, I.; Azzopardi, G.; Klemenic, O.; Botta, A.

2006-01-01

Industrial radiography is a nocturnal activity, hazardous and little known; it is among the professions the most exposed to ionizing radiation. This study analyse the doses, received the industrial radiographers, their workplace conditions and organization of their tasks. Dosimetry observations on site, together with calculations using the Mercurad code, allowed mean values for reference doses for all the work (including transport, gammatron manipulation, collimator manipulation, shooting) to be established. These value were integrated into a table entitled 'reference doses' in order to provisionally evaluate the doses received by the operators. Distances for security zone demarcation, so as to forbid access to non exposed personnel during shooting, were evaluated. Assessment of the professional risks for industrial radiography, taking into account all the risks (radiological and others), has been made and is under evaluation. This led to measures for prevention based on the material used (collimator, tripod, gamma-stops), on the organization and the conditions of work (for example, time limits permitting a prior visit to the site and preparation for radiography, suitable scaffolding, sufficient lighting, siting of shootings). These prevention measure will be integrated into the new charter of good practice in industrial radiography in the Provence Alpes Cote d'Azur region (south of France). (authors)

The management of operational value at risk in banks / Ja'nel Tobias Esterhuysen

OpenAIRE

Esterhuysen, Ja'nel Tobias

2006-01-01

The measurement of operational risk has surely been one of the biggest challenges for banks worldwide. Most banks worldwide have opted for a value-at-risk (VaR) approach, based on the success achieved with market risk, to measure and quantify operational risk. The problem banks have is that they do not always find it difficult to calculate this VaR figure, as there are numerous mathematical and statistical methods and models that can calculate VaR, but they struggle to understa...

Operational Risk Management System for SMS and FRMS

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Stewart, S.; Koornneef, F.; Akselsson, R.

2009-01-01

Chapter 3: Operational Risk Management System for SMS and FRMS The European Commission HILAS project (Human Integration into the Lifecycle of Aviation Systems - a project supported by the European Commission’s 6th Framework between 2005-2009) was focused on using human factors knowledge and

Risk averse optimal operation of a virtual power plant using two stage stochastic programming

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tajeddini, Mohammad Amin; Rahimi-Kian, Ashkan; Soroudi, Alireza

2014-01-01

VPP (Virtual Power Plant) is defined as a cluster of energy conversion/storage units which are centrally operated in order to improve the technical and economic performance. This paper addresses the optimal operation of a VPP considering the risk factors affecting its daily operation profits. The optimal operation is modelled in both day ahead and balancing markets as a two-stage stochastic mixed integer linear programming in order to maximize a GenCo (generation companies) expected profit. Furthermore, the CVaR (Conditional Value at Risk) is used as a risk measure technique in order to control the risk of low profit scenarios. The uncertain parameters, including the PV power output, wind power output and day-ahead market prices are modelled through scenarios. The proposed model is successfully applied to a real case study to show its applicability and the results are presented and thoroughly discussed. - Highlights: • Virtual power plant modelling considering a set of energy generating and conversion units. • Uncertainty modelling using two stage stochastic programming technique. • Risk modelling using conditional value at risk. • Flexible operation of renewable energy resources. • Electricity price uncertainty in day ahead energy markets

Operational Contract Support: Economic Impact Evaluation and Measures of Effectiveness

Science.gov (United States)

2017-12-01

NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY, CALIFORNIA MBA PROFESSIONAL REPORT OPERATIONAL CONTRACT SUPPORT: ECONOMIC IMPACT EVALUATION AND MEASURES...DATES COVERED MBA professional report 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE OPERATIONAL CONTRACT SUPPORT: ECONOMIC IMPACT EVALUATION AND MEASURES OF EFFECTIVENESS 5...evaluation, expeditionary economics , operational contract support, measure of effectiveness 15. NUMBER OF PAGES 89 16. PRICE CODE 17. SECURITY

Assessment, Planning, and Execution Considerations for Conjunction Risk Assessment and Mitigation Operations

Science.gov (United States)

Frigm, Ryan C.; Levi, Joshua A.; Mantziaras, Dimitrios C.

2010-01-01

An operational Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis (CARA) concept is the real-time process of assessing risk posed by close approaches and reacting to those risks if necessary. The most effective way to completely mitigate conjunction risk is to perform an avoidance maneuver. The NASA Goddard Space Flight Center has implemented a routine CARA process since 2005. Over this period, considerable experience has been gained and many lessons have been learned. This paper identifies and presents these experiences as general concepts in the description of the Conjunction Assessment, Flight Dynamics, and Flight Operations methodologies and processes. These general concepts will be tied together and will be exemplified through a case study of an actual high risk conjunction event for the Aura mission.

EVALUATING RISK-PREDICTION MODELS USING DATA FROM ELECTRONIC HEALTH RECORDS.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, L E; Shaw, Pamela A; Mathelier, Hansie M; Kimmel, Stephen E; French, Benjamin

2016-03-01

The availability of data from electronic health records facilitates the development and evaluation of risk-prediction models, but estimation of prediction accuracy could be limited by outcome misclassification, which can arise if events are not captured. We evaluate the robustness of prediction accuracy summaries, obtained from receiver operating characteristic curves and risk-reclassification methods, if events are not captured (i.e., "false negatives"). We derive estimators for sensitivity and specificity if misclassification is independent of marker values. In simulation studies, we quantify the potential for bias in prediction accuracy summaries if misclassification depends on marker values. We compare the accuracy of alternative prognostic models for 30-day all-cause hospital readmission among 4548 patients discharged from the University of Pennsylvania Health System with a primary diagnosis of heart failure. Simulation studies indicate that if misclassification depends on marker values, then the estimated accuracy improvement is also biased, but the direction of the bias depends on the direction of the association between markers and the probability of misclassification. In our application, 29% of the 1143 readmitted patients were readmitted to a hospital elsewhere in Pennsylvania, which reduced prediction accuracy. Outcome misclassification can result in erroneous conclusions regarding the accuracy of risk-prediction models.

European insurance scheme to cover geological risk related to geothermal operations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Tiberi, U [European Community, General Directorate XVII, ALTERNER Program, Bruxelles (Belgium); Demange, J [BRGM, Orleans (France)

1997-12-01

The development of geothermal energy can contribute significantly to the growth of NRE (new and renewable energies that are non-nuclear and non-combustible) within the European Community and within Europe as a whole. However, the `mining risk` related to this type of operation still constitutes a major obstacle to its development. Operators find it difficult to raise the necessary financing without a guarantee against the risk of failure during the drilling stage. Standard insurance companies will not cover this type of risk, due to its very nature. We must thus therefore find a specific solution. As a result of the oil crises during the 1970s, the French Government decided promote the use of renewable energies in France. The support provided to these energies, or at least to geothermal energy, was to set up a scheme whereby the resource is guaranteed. Thus the operator, by subscribing to the scheme, benefits from a guarantee of the resource. The insurance works at two level: - in the first place, it covers the mining risk during the drilling stage, i.e. should the resource prove to be insufficient, whether in discharge or temperature, for an economically viable operation, then the totality of the costs are reimbursed, apart form the premium and any government subsidy that might have been received. - A second level of guarantee covers the risk of change in the resource`s parameters over a period of 15 years (a study is in progress to consider the possibility of extending this period to 25 years). (orig.)

Risk Importance Measures in the Designand Operation of Nuclear Power Plants

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Vrbanic I.; Samanta P.; Basic, I

2017-10-31

This monograph presents and discusses risk importance measures as quantified by the probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) models of nuclear power plants (NPPs) developed according to the current standards and practices. Usually, PRA tools calculate risk importance measures related to a single ?basic event? representing particular failure mode. This is, then, reflected in many current PRA applications. The monograph focuses on the concept of ?component-level? importance measures that take into account different failure modes of the component including common-cause failures (CCFs). In opening sections the roleof risk assessment in safety analysis of an NPP is introduced and discussion given of ?traditional?, mainly deterministic, design principles which have been established to assign a level of importance to a particular system, structure or component. This is followed by an overview of main risk importance measures for risk increase and risk decrease from current PRAs. Basic relations which exist among the measures are shown. Some of the current practical applications of risk importancemeasures from the field of NPP design, operation and regulation are discussed. The core of the monograph provides a discussion on theoreticalbackground and practical aspects of main risk importance measures at the level of ?component? as modeled in a PRA, starting from the simplest case, single basic event, and going toward more complexcases with multiple basic events and involvements in CCF groups. The intent is to express the component-level importance measures via theimportance measures and probabilities of the underlying single basic events, which are the inputs readily available from a PRA model andits results. Formulas are derived and discussed for some typical cases. The formulas and their results are demonstrated through some practicalexamples, done by means of a simplified PRA model developed in and run by RiskSpectrum? tool, which are presented in the appendices. The

Risks and health effects in operating room personnel

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van den Berg-Dijkmeijer, Marleen L.; Frings-Dresen, Monique H. W.; Sluiter, Judith K.

2011-01-01

The objective was to find the factors that pose a possible health risk to OR personnel. Work-related health problems of operating room (OR) personnel were signalled by an occupational physician and preparations for the development of new Worker's Health Surveillance (WHS) were started with a

Risk-based Regulatory Evaluation Program methodology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

DuCharme, A.R.; Sanders, G.A.; Carlson, D.D.; Asselin, S.V.

1987-01-01

The objectives of this DOE-supported Regulatory Evaluation Progrwam are to analyze and evaluate the safety importance and economic significance of existing regulatory guidance in order to assist in the improvement of the regulatory process for current generation and future design reactors. A risk-based cost-benefit methodology was developed to evaluate the safety benefit and cost of specific regulations or Standard Review Plan sections. Risk-based methods can be used in lieu of or in combination with deterministic methods in developing regulatory requirements and reaching regulatory decisions

Evaluation of BOR-60 operation safety

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Minakov, A.A.; Antipin, G.K.; Efimov, V.N.; Kuzin, G.G.; Eschenko, L.V.; Eschenko, S.N.

1987-12-01

In this communication, BOR-60 reactor operation anomalies capable to produce a dangerous overheating of the core (SDC) is examined. On bases of calculations and reactor operation experience an event tree for SDC is built. Evaluations of probable anomalies entering in the event tree and reactor parameters modifications in case of anomalies are presented. In conclusion BOR-60 agree with the sovietic nuclear safety [fr

A Discussion on Risk in Complex Operational Settings

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ellis, K., E-mail: ken.ellis@wano.org [WANO, London (United Kingdom)

2014-10-15

Full text: Many apparatus today are complicated in that they consist of many components. The risk associated with these complicated apparatus is a product of their unreliable system components and sub-components. The components are a collection of inter-related individual components/ sub-components that can be correlated in a direct cause and effect manner and thus failures can be historically retraced or predicted. Once the confines of the complicated apparatus is extended to include such inputs as humans operating the equipment, man-machine interfaces, multiple processes surrounding the operation of the apparatus, etc., the whole system becomes complex. Complex systems are based on interdependencies versus dependencies, and risk becomes a product of improperly aligned or poorly integrated activities. Cause and effect becomes more loosely coupled and both path and circumstance dependent. To better understand and improve our defence in depth strategies we need to better understand and discuss complex systems and hence allow better erection of protective barriers. (author)

Risk analysis for autonomous underwater vehicle operations in extreme environments.

Science.gov (United States)

Brito, Mario Paulo; Griffiths, Gwyn; Challenor, Peter

2010-12-01

Autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs) are used increasingly to explore hazardous marine environments. Risk assessment for such complex systems is based on subjective judgment and expert knowledge as much as on hard statistics. Here, we describe the use of a risk management process tailored to AUV operations, the implementation of which requires the elicitation of expert judgment. We conducted a formal judgment elicitation process where eight world experts in AUV design and operation were asked to assign a probability of AUV loss given the emergence of each fault or incident from the vehicle's life history of 63 faults and incidents. After discussing methods of aggregation and analysis, we show how the aggregated risk estimates obtained from the expert judgments were used to create a risk model. To estimate AUV survival with mission distance, we adopted a statistical survival function based on the nonparametric Kaplan-Meier estimator. We present theoretical formulations for the estimator, its variance, and confidence limits. We also present a numerical example where the approach is applied to estimate the probability that the Autosub3 AUV would survive a set of missions under Pine Island Glacier, Antarctica in January-March 2009. © 2010 Society for Risk Analysis.

Operational Risk Management A Practical Approach to Intelligent Data Analysis

CERN Document Server

Kenett, Ron

2010-01-01

The book will introduce modern Operational Risk (OpR) Management and illustrates the various sources of OpR assessment and OpR mitigation. This book discusses how various data sources can be integrated and analyzed and how OpR is synergetic to other risk management activities such as Financial Risk Management and Internationalization. The topics will include state of the art technology such as semantic analysis, ontology engineering, data mining and statistical analysis.

Quantifying risk for decentralized offensive cyber operations

OpenAIRE

Klipstein, Michael S.

2017-01-01

Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited Includes supplementary material. Reissued 7 Sep 2017 with corrections to committee titles. Computer networks and the amount of information stored within government computer networks have become ubiquitous. With the possible decentralization of authorities to conduct offensive cyber operations, leaders and their respective staffs of organizations below the national level cannot adequately assess risks and consequences of these ope...

A risk-informed evaluation of MOX fuel loading in PWRS

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lyman, E.S.

2001-01-01

The full text follows: The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has signed a contract with Duke Cogema Stone and Webster (DCS) for fabrication of mixed-oxide (MOX) fuel and irradiation of the MOX fuel at the Catawba and McGuire pressurized-water reactors (PWRs), operated by Duke Power. The first load of MOX fuel is scheduled for 2007. In order to use MOX in these plants, Duke Power will have to apply to the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) for amendments to their operating licenses. Until recently, there have been no numerical guidelines for determining the acceptability of license amendment requests. However, such guidelines are now at hand with the adoption in 1998 of NRC Regulatory Guide 1.174, which defines a maximum value for the permissible increase in risk to the public resulting from a proposed change to a nuclear plant's licensing basis (LB). The substitution of MOX fuel for low-enriched uranium (LEU) fuel in LWRs will have an impact on risk to the public that will require regulatory evaluation. One of the major differences is that use of MOX will increase the inventories of plutonium and minor actinides in the reactor core, thereby increasing the source term for certain severe accidents, such as a core melt with early containment failure or a spent fuel pool drain-down. The goal of this paper is to quantitatively evaluate the increase in risk associated with the greater actinide source term in MOX-fueled reactors, and to compare this increase with RG 1.174 guidelines. Standard computer programs (SCALE and MACCS2) are used to estimate the increase in severe accident risk to the public associated with the DCS plan to use 40% cores of weapons-grade MOX fuel. These values are then compared to the RG 1.174 acceptance criteria, using publicly available risk information. Since RG 1.174 guidelines are based on the assumption that severe accident source terms are not affected by LB changes, the RG 1.174 formalism must be modified for this case. A similar

Environmental issues and process risks for operation of carbon capture plant

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lajnert Radosław

2018-01-01

Full Text Available The scope of this publication is a presentation of environmental issues and process risks connected with operation an installation for carbon capture from waste gas. General technological assumptions, typical for demonstration plant for carbon capture from waste gas (DCCP with application of two different solutions – 30% water solution of monoethanoloamine (MEA and water solution with 30% AMP (2-amino-2-methyl-1-propanol and 10% piperazine have been described. The concept of DCCP installation was made for Łaziska Power Plant in Łaziska Górne owned by TAURON Wytwarzanie S.A. Main hazardous substances, typical for such installation, which can be dangerous for human life and health or for the environment have been presented. Pollution emission to the air, noise emission, waste water and solid waste management have been described. The environmental impact of the released substances has been stated. Reference to emission standards specified in regulations for considered substances has been done. Principles of risk analysis have been presented and main hazards in carbon dioxide absorption node and regeneration node have been evaluated.

Environmental issues and process risks for operation of carbon capture plant

Science.gov (United States)

Lajnert, Radosław; Nowak, Martyna; Telenga-Kopyczyńska, Jolanta

2018-01-01

The scope of this publication is a presentation of environmental issues and process risks connected with operation an installation for carbon capture from waste gas. General technological assumptions, typical for demonstration plant for carbon capture from waste gas (DCCP) with application of two different solutions - 30% water solution of monoethanoloamine (MEA) and water solution with 30% AMP (2-amino-2-methyl-1-propanol) and 10% piperazine have been described. The concept of DCCP installation was made for Łaziska Power Plant in Łaziska Górne owned by TAURON Wytwarzanie S.A. Main hazardous substances, typical for such installation, which can be dangerous for human life and health or for the environment have been presented. Pollution emission to the air, noise emission, waste water and solid waste management have been described. The environmental impact of the released substances has been stated. Reference to emission standards specified in regulations for considered substances has been done. Principles of risk analysis have been presented and main hazards in carbon dioxide absorption node and regeneration node have been evaluated.

Assessments and applications to enhance human reliability and reduce risk during less-than-full-power operations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hannaman, G.W.; Singh, A.

1992-01-01

Study of events, interviews with plant personnel, and applications of risk studies indicate that the risk of a potential accident during less-than-full-power (LTFP) operation is becoming a greater fraction of the risk as improvements are made to the full-power operations. Industry efforts have been increased to reduce risk and the cost of shutdown operations. These efforts consider the development and application of advanced tools to help utilities proactively identify issues and develop contingencies and interventions to enhance reliability and reduce risk of low-power operations at nuclear power plants. The role for human reliability assessments is to help improve utility outage planning to better achieve schedule and risk control objectives. Improvements are expected to include intervention tools to identify and reduce human error, definition of new instructional modules, and prioritization of risk reduction issues for operators. The Electric Power Research Institute is sponsoring a project to address the identification and quantification of factors that affect human reliability during LTFP operation of nuclear power plants. The results of this project are expected to promote the development of proactively applied interventions and contingencies for enhanced human reliability during shutdown operations

Risk-based Operation and Maintenance for Offshore Wind Turbines

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Nielsen, Jannie Jessen

2011-01-01

For offshore wind turbines, costs to Operation and Maintenance (OM) are substantial, and can be expected to increase when wind farms are placed at deeper water depths and in more harsh environments. Traditional strategies for OM include corrective and preventive (scheduled and condition...... statistics and costs of the different operations. The different OM strategies are described and compared in an illustrative example with focus on which types of information that are needed. Special focus is on comparison between risk-based maintenance strategies and the conventional maintenance planning...... and are often the driving mechanisms for failures / faults that need maintenance. Observations of the degree of damage can increase the reliability of predictions and decrease the costs of OM if integrated in a risk-based framework theoretically based on pre-posterior Bayesian decision theory. The mathematical...

The usefulness of myocardial SPECT for the preoperative cardiac risk evaluation in noncardiac surgery

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lim, Seok Tae; Lee, Dong Soo; Kang, Won Jon; Chung, June Key; Lee, Myung Chul

1999-01-01

We investigated whether myocardial SPECT had additional usefulness to clinical, functional or surgical indices for the preoperative evaluation of cardiac risks in noncardiac surgery. 118 patients ( M: F=66: 52, 62.7±10.5 years) were studied retrospectively. Eighteen underwent vascular surgeries and 100 nonvascular surgeries. Rest Tl-201/ stress Tc-99m-MIBI SPECT was performed before operation and cardiac events (hard event: cardiac death and myocardial infarction; soft event: ischemic ECG change, congestive heat failure and unstable angina) were surveyed through perioperative periods (14.6±5.6 days). Clinical risk indices, functional capacity, surgery procedures and SPECT findings were tested for their predictive values of perioperative cardiac events. Peri-operative cardiac events occurred in 25 patients (3 hard events and 22 soft events). Clinical risk indices, surgical procedure risks and SPECT findings but functional capacity were predictive of cardiac events. Reversible perfusion decrease was a better predictor than persistent decrease. Multivariate analysis sorted out surgical procedure risk (p=0.0018) and SPECT findings (p=0.0001) as significant risk factors. SPECT could re-stratify perioperative cardiac risks in patients ranked with surgical procedures. We conclude that myocardial SPECT provides additional predictive value to surgical type risks as well as clinical indexes or functional capacity for the prediction of preoperative cardiac events in noncardiac surgery

Evaluation of an inpatient fall risk screening tool to identify the most critical fall risk factors in inpatients.

Science.gov (United States)

Hou, Wen-Hsuan; Kang, Chun-Mei; Ho, Mu-Hsing; Kuo, Jessie Ming-Chuan; Chen, Hsiao-Lien; Chang, Wen-Yin

2017-03-01

To evaluate the accuracy of the inpatient fall risk screening tool and to identify the most critical fall risk factors in inpatients. Variations exist in several screening tools applied in acute care hospitals for examining risk factors for falls and identifying high-risk inpatients. Secondary data analysis. A subset of inpatient data for the period from June 2011-June 2014 was extracted from the nursing information system and adverse event reporting system of an 818-bed teaching medical centre in Taipei. Data were analysed using descriptive statistics, receiver operating characteristic curve analysis and logistic regression analysis. During the study period, 205 fallers and 37,232 nonfallers were identified. The results revealed that the inpatient fall risk screening tool (cut-off point of ≥3) had a low sensitivity level (60%), satisfactory specificity (87%), a positive predictive value of 2·0% and a negative predictive value of 99%. The receiver operating characteristic curve analysis revealed an area under the curve of 0·805 (sensitivity, 71·8%; specificity, 78%). To increase the sensitivity values, the Youden index suggests at least 1·5 points to be the most suitable cut-off point for the inpatient fall risk screening tool. Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed a considerably increased fall risk in patients with impaired balance and impaired elimination. The fall risk factor was also significantly associated with days of hospital stay and with admission to surgical wards. The findings can raise awareness about the two most critical risk factors for falls among future clinical nurses and other healthcare professionals and thus facilitate the development of fall prevention interventions. This study highlights the needs for redefining the cut-off points of the inpatient fall risk screening tool to effectively identify inpatients at a high risk of falls. Furthermore, inpatients with impaired balance and impaired elimination should be closely

Contract Design: Risk Management and Evaluation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Axel C. Mühlbacher

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Introduction: Effective risk adjustment is an aspect that is more and more given weight on the background of competitive health insurance systems and vital healthcare systems. The risk structure of the providers plays a vital role in Pay for Performance. A prerequisite for optimal incentive-based service models is a (partial dependence of the agent’s returns on the provider’s gain level. Integrated care systems as well as accountable care organisations (ACOs in the US and similar concepts in other countries are advocated as an effective method of improving the performance of healthcare systems. These systems outline a payment and care delivery model that intends to tie provider reimbursements to predefined quality metrics. By this the total costs of care shall be reduced.  Methods: Little is known about the contractual design and the main challenges of delegating “accountability” to these new kinds of organisations and/or contracts. The costs of market utilisation are highly relevant for the conception of healthcare contracts; furthermore information asymmetries and contract-specific investments are an obstacle to the efficient operation of ACOs. A comprehensive literature review on methods of designing contracts in Integrated Care was conducted. The research question in this article focuses on how reimbursement strategies, evaluation of measures and methods of risk adjustment can best be integrated in healthcare contracting.  Results: Each integrated care contract includes challenges for both payers and providers without having sufficient empirical data on both sides. These challenges are clinical, administrative or financial nature. Risk adjusted contracts ensure that the reimbursement roughly matches the true costs resulting from the morbidity of a population. If reimbursement of care provider corresponds to the actual expenses for an individual/population the problem of risk selection is greatly reduced. The currently used methods

The Governance of the Operational Risk Indicators

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Angelica Stratulat

2016-07-01

Full Text Available Management has won much its status of science as it is the scientific approach of solving many problems that the leadership of any entity currently has and, as such, it continues to fuel many controversies and debates. Management is the process meant to coordinate, to plan and to control the activities in an organization so as it is able to ensure its goals with maximum efficiency. Under these circumstances, future uncertainties and risks cause revolutionary mutations in approaching most of the economic and social paradigms that humankind were too long accustomed to, so that also the management processes and procedures system is exposed to corresponding changes. Operational Risk Management is not an integrated process but rather a set of fragmented activities that treat and resolve a variety of risks facing the firm/company as a whole, which determines facing the process from a holistic perspective of the whole business.

Evaluation of risk impact of changes to Completion Times addressing model and parameter uncertainties

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Martorell, S.; Martón, I.; Villamizar, M.; Sánchez, A.I.; Carlos, S.

2014-01-01

This paper presents an approach and an example of application for the evaluation of risk impact of changes to Completion Times within the License Basis of a Nuclear Power Plant based on the use of the Probabilistic Risk Assessment addressing identification, treatment and analysis of uncertainties in an integrated manner. It allows full development of a three tired approach (Tier 1–3) following the principles of the risk-informed decision-making accounting for uncertainties as proposed by many regulators. Completion Time is the maximum outage time a safety related equipment is allowed to be down, e.g. for corrective maintenance, which is established within the Limiting Conditions for Operation included into Technical Specifications for operation of a Nuclear Power Plant. The case study focuses on a Completion Time change of the Accumulators System of a Nuclear Power Plant using a level 1 PRA. It focuses on several sources of model and parameter uncertainties. The results obtained show the risk impact of the proposed CT change including both types of epistemic uncertainties is small as compared with current safety goals of concern to Tier 1. However, what concerns to Tier 2 and 3, the results obtained show how the use of some traditional and uncertainty importance measures helps in identifying high risky configurations that should be avoided in NPP technical specifications no matter the duration of CT (Tier 2), and other configurations that could take part of a configuration risk management program (Tier 3). - Highlights: • New approach for evaluation of risk impact of changes to Completion Times. • Integrated treatment and analysis of model and parameter uncertainties. • PSA based application to support risk-informed decision-making. • Measures of importance for identification of risky configurations. • Management of important safety issues to accomplish safety goals

Building a Natural Disaster Risk Index for Supply Chain Operations

OpenAIRE

Kun Liao; Ozden Bayazit; Fang Wang

2014-01-01

Risk for an organization is associated with uncertainties in all areas of its operations. As firms move toward global sourcing, supply chain risk increases dramatically, which is linked to lower financial performance and market value. One major type of supply chain risk is disruptions caused by natural or man-made disasters. In this paper, major factors causing supply chain disruptions are identified based on resource dependency theory and contingency theory. As a result of the study, a compr...

A methodology for nuclear power plant operational events evaluation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Araujo, Jeferson

2015-01-01

Operational events are normal occurrences in industrial plants and in nuclear power plants. The evaluation of operational events gains importance when it comes specifically to nuclear power plants due to the proportions that the impact and the consequences of these events may cause to the installation itself, their workers, the external area of the nuclear installation, the environment and to the public in general. These consequences, for the operation of these facilities can range from very little, until the consequences that lead to accidents and can cause significant impacts. Operational events may be associated or have influence in many fields of knowledge, such as operation, maintenance, engineering, Radiological Protection, physical protection, chemistry, Human or Organizational Factors and external events, among others. The accident at the Fukushima Daichi nuclear power plant, shows the importance of exhausting all the studies concerning operational events in order to improve the operational safety of nuclear plants, considering all the causes and possible consequences. In this context, the evaluation of operational events discipline emerges as an important and relevant tool to contribute to the maintenance and/or improvement of the operational safety of nuclear installations. Not without reason the nuclear industry actively participates in programs of exchange of operational experience, where relevant events are thoroughly evaluated and discussed in specific forums, such as power plant operators, regulators and/or joint technical meetings, always with the purpose to prevent, minimize or mitigate its consequences. Any evaluation of operational events passes necessarily by an in-depth study of the circumstances of the event, culminating with the identification of your cause and proposition of corrective actions to prevent recurrence of similar events. Additionally, the events should not be studied individually, but evaluated within a temporal context in order

A methodology for nuclear power plant operational events evaluation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Araujo, Jeferson, E-mail: jeferson@cnen.gov.br [Comissao Nacional de Energia Nuclear (CGRC/CNEN), Rio de janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Coordenacao Geral de Reatores e do Ciclo de Combustivel; Costa, Sergio Dias, E-mail: sergiodiascosta@hotmail.com [Instituto de Engenharia Nuclear (IEN/CNEN-RJ), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

2015-07-01

Operational events are normal occurrences in industrial plants and in nuclear power plants. The evaluation of operational events gains importance when it comes specifically to nuclear power plants due to the proportions that the impact and the consequences of these events may cause to the installation itself, their workers, the external area of the nuclear installation, the environment and to the public in general. These consequences, for the operation of these facilities can range from very little, until the consequences that lead to accidents and can cause significant impacts. Operational events may be associated or have influence in many fields of knowledge, such as operation, maintenance, engineering, Radiological Protection, physical protection, chemistry, Human or Organizational Factors and external events, among others. The accident at the Fukushima Daichi nuclear power plant, shows the importance of exhausting all the studies concerning operational events in order to improve the operational safety of nuclear plants, considering all the causes and possible consequences. In this context, the evaluation of operational events discipline emerges as an important and relevant tool to contribute to the maintenance and/or improvement of the operational safety of nuclear installations. Not without reason the nuclear industry actively participates in programs of exchange of operational experience, where relevant events are thoroughly evaluated and discussed in specific forums, such as power plant operators, regulators and/or joint technical meetings, always with the purpose to prevent, minimize or mitigate its consequences. Any evaluation of operational events passes necessarily by an in-depth study of the circumstances of the event, culminating with the identification of your cause and proposition of corrective actions to prevent recurrence of similar events. Additionally, the events should not be studied individually, but evaluated within a temporal context in order

Operational risk management in financial institutions: A literature review

OpenAIRE

Pakhchanyan, Suren

2016-01-01

Following the three-pillar structure of the Basel II/III framework, the article categorises and surveys 279 academic papers on operational risk in financial institutions, covering the period from 1998 to 2014. In doing so, different lines of both theoretical and empirical directions for research are identified. In addition, this study provides an overview of existing consortia databases and other publicly available sources on operational loss that may be incorporated into empirical research, ...

Evaluation of real time operating system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, Cheol Hoon; Cho, Moon Heang; Choi, In Bum; Lee, Jung Won; Kang, Hui Sung

2006-02-01

An hard RTOS used in the Nuclear Power Plants must satisfy severe performance requirements even in a worst case scenario. Since operating systems are becoming more complicated, it is not an easy job to evaluate them. So it becomes more important how to evaluate the RTOS's used in the Nuclear Power Plants. The purpose of this work is to survey design examples and performance models of RTOS's used in the nuclear power plants and based on this survey, develop a evaluation technologies

Evaluation of SMART load follow operation capability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Song, Jae Seung; Zee, Sung Quun

1998-07-01

The daily load follow operation capability of SMART, which is 330 MWth integral reactor with boron free operation concept, was evaluated. In the boron free operation core the axial offset(AO) can not be limited or limited by wider range than the typical PWR that uses soluble boron. Current SMART conceptual core design does not have the limit for the axial offset and the operation is limited by three dimensional local power peak. In this report, the capability of load follow operation is evaluated for 14-2-6-2 daily load follow by 50% power reduction that is very typical in the large commercial power reactors. The cycle length of SMART is limited by three dimensional local power peak and the nominal axial power distribution is top skewed at the end of cycle. When the power returns to 100%, control rod should be withdrawn for the compensation of reactivity decrease due to the xenon buildup. The control rod withdrawal results in the increase of three dimensional local power peak. To solve this problem, an operation strategy for the control of local peak. To solve this problem, an operation strategy for the control of local peak was established and it was shown that the strategy is effective in controlling the local peak less than target value of the three dimensional local power peak. (author). 7 refs., 5 tabs., 13 figs

Barrier and operational risk analysis of hydrocarbon releases (BORA-Release)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sklet, Snorre; Vinnem, Jan Erik; Aven, Terje

2006-01-01

This paper presents results from a case study carried out on an offshore oil and gas production platform with the purpose to apply and test BORA-Release, a method for barrier and operational risk analysis of hydrocarbon releases. A description of the BORA-Release method is given in Part I of the paper. BORA-Release is applied to express the platform specific hydrocarbon release frequencies for three release scenarios for selected systems and activities on the platform. The case study demonstrated that the BORA-Release method is a useful tool for analysing the effect on the release frequency of safety barriers introduced to prevent hydrocarbon releases, and to study the effect on the barrier performance of platform specific conditions of technical, human, operational, and organisational risk influencing factors (RIFs). BORA-Release may also be used to analyse the effect on the release frequency of risk reducing measures

Relativity evaluation of reliability on operation in nuclear power plant

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Inata, Takashi

1987-01-01

The report presents a quantitative method for evaluating the reliability of operations conducted in nuclear power plants. The quantitative reliability evaluation method is based on the 'detailed block diagram analysis (De-BDA)'. All units of a series of operations are separately displayed for each block and combined sequentially. Then, calculation is performed to evaluate the reliability. Basically, De-BDA calculation is made for pairs of operation labels, which are connected in parallel or in series at different subordination levels. The applicability of the De-BDA method is demonstrated by carrying out calculation for three model cases: operations in the event of malfunction of the control valve in the main water supply system for PWR, switching from an electrically-operated water supply pump to a turbin-operated water supply pump, and isolation and water removal operation for a low-pressure condensate pump. It is shown that the relative importance of each unit of a series of operations can be evaluated, making it possible to extract those units of greater importance, and that the priority among the factors which affect the reliability of operations can be determined. Results of the De-BDA calculation can serve to find important points to be considered in developing an operation manual, conducting education and training, and improving facilities. (Nogami, K.)

The control of operational risk in nuclear power plant operations - Some cross-cultural perspectives

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Suchard, A.; Rochlin, G.

1992-01-01

The operation of nuclear power plants requires the management of a complex technology under exacting performance and safety criteria. Organizations operating nuclear power plants are faced with the challenge of simultaneously meeting technical, organizational, and social demands, striving toward perfection in a situation where learning by trial and error can be too costly. In this process, they interact with regulatory bodies who seek to help minimize operational risk by imposing and upholding safety standards. The character of this interaction differs in various countries, as does the larger cultural setting. The study generally pursued the question of how organizations operating complex and demanding technologies adapt to such requirements and circumstances, and how they can succeed in delivering nearly error-free performance. One aspect of this study includes the comparison of organizational and cultural environments for nuclear power plant operations in the US, France, Germany, Sweden, and Switzerland. The research involved in-depth, continuous observations on location and interviews with plant personnel, especially control operators, at one plant in each country

Evaluation of thermal risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Loos, J.J.; Perry, E.S.

1993-01-01

Risk assessment was done in 1983 to estimate the ecological hazard of increasing the generating load and thermal output of an electric generating station. Subsequently, long-term monitoring in the vicinity of the station allowed verification of the predictions made in the risk assessment. This presentation will review the efficacy of early risk assessment methods in producing useful predictions from a resource management point of view. In 1984, the Chalk Point Generating facility of the Potomac Electric Power Company increased it's median generating load by 100%. Prior to this operational change, the Academy of Natural Sciences of Philadelphia synthesized site specific data, model predictions, and results from literature to assess the risk of additional waste heat to the Patuxent River subestuary of Chesapeake Bay. Risk was expressed as the number of days per year that various species of fish and the blue crab would be expected to avoid the discharge vicinity. Accuracy of these predictions is assessed by comparing observed fish and crab distributions and their observed frequencies of avoidance to those predicted. It is concluded that the predictions of this early risk assessment were sufficiently accurate to produce a reliable resource management decision

Evaluating hospital design from an operations management perspective.

Science.gov (United States)

Vos, Leti; Groothuis, Siebren; van Merode, Godefridus G

2007-12-01

This paper describes an evaluation method for the assessment of hospital building design from the viewpoint of operations management to assure that the building design supports the efficient and effective operating of care processes now and in the future. The different steps of the method are illustrated by a case study. In the case study an experimental design is applied to assess the effect of used logistical concepts, patient mix and technologies. The study shows that the evaluation method provides a valuable tool for the assessment of both functionality and the ability to meet future developments in operational control of a building design.

Operational Choices for Risk Aggregation in Insurance: PSDization and SCR Sensitivity

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xavier Milhaud

2018-04-01

Full Text Available This work addresses crucial questions about the robustness of the PSDization process for applications in insurance. PSDization refers to the process that forces a matrix to become positive semidefinite. For companies using copulas to aggregate risks in their internal model, PSDization occurs when working with correlation matrices to compute the Solvency Capital Requirement (SCR. We examine how classical operational choices concerning the modelling of risk dependence impacts the SCR during PSDization. These operations refer to the permutations of risks (or business lines in the correlation matrix, the addition of a new risk, and the introduction of confidence weights given to the correlation coefficients. The use of genetic algorithms shows that theoretically neutral transformations of the correlation matrix can surprisingly lead to significant sensitivities of the SCR (up to 6%. This highlights the need for a very strong internal control around the PSDization step.

Optimal, Risk-based Operation and Maintenance Planning for Offshore Wind Turbines

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

2008-01-01

For offshore wind turbines costs to operation and maintenance are substantial. This paper describes a risk-based life-cycle approach for optimal planning of operation and maintenance. The approach is based on pre-posterior Bayesian decision theory. Deterioration mechanisms such as fatigue...

Risk-oriented management of system configurations during power plant operation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kafka, P.

1991-01-01

The paper explains the purpose, design, and functions of an on-line database called risk monitor, which is developed on the basis of a risk model mapping an entire plant and the functions of the system configurations by a probabilistic and risk-oriented approach in a computerized simulation model. The frequency of occurrence of the various failure modes is computed and specified by fault tree analysis and event tree analysis. The monitoring system is a diagnostic tool for power plant operators. (DG) [de

Risk evaluations of transuranic waste at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Smith, T.H.; Keneshea, F.J.

1980-01-01

Approximately 75% of the defense low-level transuranic (TRU) waste stored in the United States and 25% of the buried TRU waste is located at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL). Studies have been performed to identify and evaluate technical alternatives for the long-term management of this waste. (The alternatives range from leaving the waste in place as is to reviewing, processing, and shipping it to an offsite geological repository.) Among the evalations that have been performed were preliminary risk evaluations. The dose commitment and risk of hypothetical, near-term, accidental or uncontrolled releases of radionuclides have been evaluated for each alternative. The following potential causes of radionuclide release have been studied: process and handling accidents, shipping accidents, natural events (e.g., earthquakes), man-caused events (e.g., airplane crashes), and future intrusion by individuals or small populations after loss of societal control over the waste. The hypothetical releases have been evaluated, in terms of dose commitment and (if pertinent) probability and risk, for all operational steps making up each concept. The dominant scanerios in terms of near-term risk are (1) lava flow up through or over the waste, leading to airbone releases; (2) an explosion or a criticality accident in the waste-processing facility; and (3) a tornado strike or a fire during waste retrieval. The dominant long-term releases are (1) volcanic action; and (2) intrusion of people on the waste site.Although substantial dose commitments to individual members of the public were calculated for the lava flow and intrusion scenarios, no prompt health effects would be expected from the exposures. The effects would be in the form of a slightly increased likelihood of latent cancer induction

Screening Risk Evaluation methodology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hopper, K.M.

1994-01-01

The Screening Risk Evaluation (SRE) Guidance document is a set of guidelines provided for the uniform implementation of SREs performed on D ampersand D facilities. These guidelines are designed specifically for the completion of the second (semi-quantitative screening) phase of the D ampersand D Risk-Based Process. The SRE Guidance produces screening risk scores reflecting levels of risk through the use of risk ranking indices. Five types of possible risk are calculated from the SRE: current releases, worker exposures, future releases, physical hazards, and criticality. The Current Release Index (CRI) calculates the risk to human health and the environment from ongoing or probable releases within a one year time period. The Worker Exposure Index (WEI) calculates the risk to workers, occupants, and visitors in D ampersand D facilities of contaminant exposure. The Future Release Index (FRI) calculates the risk of future releases of contaminants, after one year, to human health and the environment. The Physical Hazards Index (PHI) calculates the risk-to human health due to factors other than that of contaminants. The index of Criticality is approached as a modifying factor to the entire SRE, due to the fact that criticality issues are strictly regulated under DOE. Screening risk results will be tabulated in matrix form and Total Risk will be calculated (weighted equation) to produce a score on which to base early action recommendations. Other recommendations from the screening risk scores will be made based either on individual index scores or from reweighted Total Risk calculations. All recommendations based on the SRE will be made based on a combination of screening risk scores, decision drivers, and other considerations, determined on a project by project basis. The SRE is the first and most important step in the overall D ampersand D project level decision making process

Evaluation of real time operating system

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lee, Cheol Hoon; Cho, Moon Heang; Choi, In Bum; Lee, Jung Won; Kang, Hui Sung [Chungnam National Univ., Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2006-02-15

An hard RTOS used in the Nuclear Power Plants must satisfy severe performance requirements even in a worst case scenario. Since operating systems are becoming more complicated, it is not an easy job to evaluate them. So it becomes more important how to evaluate the RTOS's used in the Nuclear Power Plants. The purpose of this work is to survey design examples and performance models of RTOS's used in the nuclear power plants and based on this survey, develop a evaluation technologies.

FLIGHT SAFETY CONTROL OF THE BASIS OF UNCERTAIN RISK EVALUATION WITH NON-ROUTINE FLIGHT CONDITIONS INVOLVED

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

2016-01-01

Full Text Available The article deals with methods of forecasting the level of aviation safety operation of aircraft systems on the basis of methods of evaluation the risks of negative situations as a consequence of a functional loss of initial properties of the system with critical violations of standard modes of the aircraft. Mathematical Models of Risks as a Danger Measure of Discrete Random Events in Aviation Systems are presented. Technological Schemes and Structure of Risk Control Proce- dures without the Probability are illustrated as Methods of Risk Management System in Civil Aviation. The assessment of the level of safety and quality and management of aircraft, made not only from the standpoint of reliability (quality and consumer properties, but also from the position of ICAO on the basis of a risk-based approach. According to ICAO, the security assessment is performed by comparing the calculated risk with an acceptable level. The approach justifies the use of qualitative evaluation techniques safety in the forms of proactive forecasted and predictive risk management adverse impacts to aviation operations of various kinds, including the space sector and nuclear energy. However, for the events such as accidents and disasters, accidents with the aircraft, fighters in a training flight, during the preparation of the pilots on the training aircraft, etc. there is no required statistics. Density of probability distribution (p. d. f. of these events are only hypothetical, unknown with "hard tails" that completely eliminates the application of methods of confidence intervals in the traditional approaches to the assessment of safety in the form of the probability analysis.

HOW INTERNAL RISK - BASED AUDIT APPRAISES THE EVALUATION OF RISKS MANAGEMENT

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

N. Dorosh

2017-09-01

Full Text Available The article deals with the nature and function of the internal risk-based audit process approach to create patterns of risks and methods of evaluation. Deals with the relationship between the level of maturity of the risk of the company and the method of risk-based internal audit. it was emphasized that internal auditing provides an independent and objective opinion to an organization’s management as to whether its risks are being managed to acceptable levels.

A method for risk informing procedures at operating nuclear power plants

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Nelson, P. F.; Martin del Campo, C., E-mail: pnelson_007@yahoo.com [UNAM, Facultad de Ingenieria, Departamento de Sistemas Energeticos, Paseo Cuauhnahuac No. 8532, Col. Progreso, 62550 Jiutepec, Morelos (Mexico)

2012-10-15

The technical approach presented establishes a framework intended to provide the necessary elements for a deployable human performance monitoring program that incorporates insights from plant specific probabilistic risk assessments, human reliability analysis, as well as the development of plant specific human failure data. A human performance monitoring program of this structure would be used to provide the ability to risk inform procedures (e.g., operations or maintenance) to determine the operational risk significance of procedural performance (i.e., precautions, prerequisites, procedure steps), the likelihood of consequential human error dur the performance of the procedure, and the identification of procedure specific barriers to reduce or eliminate consequential human errors. The program would provide the means to assess procedures prior to execution and the means to record and trend human failure events leading to a plant specific human failure database for human activities characterized as pre-initiator. The technical methods and data processing for each of these areas are developed and presented, as well as an example application of an operational procedure error leading to a plant level event (i.e, plant trip). (Author)

Relative risk site evaluation for buildings 7740 and 7741 Fort Campbell, Kentucky

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Last, G.V.; Gilmore, T.J.; Bronson, F.J.

1998-01-01

Buildings 7740 and 7741 are a part of a former nuclear weapon`s storage and maintenance facility located in the southeastern portion of Fort Campbell, Kentucky. This underground tunnel complex was originally used as a classified storage area beginning in 1949 and continuing until 1969. Staff from the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory recently completed a detailed Relative Risk Site Evaluation of the facility. This evaluation included (1) obtaining engineering drawings of the facility and associated structures, (2) conducting detailed radiological surveys, (3) air sampling, (4) sampling drainage systems, and (5) sampling the underground wastewater storage tank. Ten samples were submitted for laboratory analysis of radionuclides and priority pollutant metals, and two samples submitted for analysis of volatile organic compounds. No volatile organic contaminants were detected using field instruments or laboratory analyses. However, several radionuclides and metals were detected in water and/or soil/sediment samples collected from this facility. Of the radionuclides detected, only {sup 226}Ra may have come from facility operations; however, its concentration is at least one order of magnitude below the relative-risk comparison value. Several metals (arsenic, beryllium, cadmium, copper, mercury, lead, and antimony) were found to exceed the relative-risk comparison values for water, while only arsenic, cadmium, and lead were found to exceed the relative risk comparison values for soil. Of these constituents, it is believed that only arsenic, beryllium, mercury, and lead may have come from facility operations. Other significant hazards posed by the tunnel complex include radon exposure and potentially low oxygen concentrations (<19.5% in atmosphere) if the tunnel complex is not allowed to vent to the outside air. Asbestos-wrapped pipes, lead-based paint, rat poison, and possibly a selenium rectifier are also present within the tunnel complex.

OPERATIONAL RISK IN INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS: TAXONOMY AND ASSESSMENT METHODS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marinoiu Ana Maria

2009-05-01

Full Text Available The paper aims at presenting the classifications and the assessment methods for operational risk according to international regulations (ie. Basel 2, in the context of its importance as a managerial tool for international business. Considering the growin

A Novel Stress-Diathesis Model to Predict Risk of Post-operative Delirium: Implications for Intra-operative Management

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Renée El-Gabalawy

2017-08-01

Full Text Available Introduction: Risk assessment for post-operative delirium (POD is poorly developed. Improved metrics could greatly facilitate peri-operative care as costs associated with POD are staggering. In this preliminary study, we develop a novel stress-diathesis model based on comprehensive pre-operative psychiatric and neuropsychological testing, a blood oxygenation level-dependent (BOLD magnetic resonance imaging (MRI carbon dioxide (CO2 stress test, and high fidelity measures of intra-operative parameters that may interact facilitating POD.Methods: The study was approved by the ethics board at the University of Manitoba and registered at clinicaltrials.gov as NCT02126215. Twelve patients were studied. Pre-operative psychiatric symptom measures and neuropsychological testing preceded MRI featuring a BOLD MRI CO2 stress test whereby BOLD scans were conducted while exposing participants to a rigorously controlled CO2 stimulus. During surgery the patient had hemodynamics and end-tidal gases downloaded at 0.5 hz. Post-operatively, the presence of POD and POD severity was comprehensively assessed using the Confusion Assessment Measure –Severity (CAM-S scoring instrument on days 0 (surgery through post-operative day 5, and patients were followed up at least 1 month post-operatively.Results: Six of 12 patients had no evidence of POD (non-POD. Three patients had POD and 3 had clinically significant confusional states (referred as subthreshold POD; ST-POD (score ≥ 5/19 on the CAM-S. Average severity for delirium was 1.3 in the non-POD group, 3.2 in ST-POD, and 6.1 in POD (F-statistic = 15.4, p < 0.001. Depressive symptoms, and cognitive measures of semantic fluency and executive functioning/processing speed were significantly associated with POD. Second level analysis revealed an increased inverse BOLD responsiveness to CO2 pre-operatively in ST-POD and marked increase in the POD groups when compared to the non-POD group. An association was also noted for

A Methodology for Evaluation of Inservice Test Intervals for Pumps and Motor-Operated Valves

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cox, D.F.; Haynes, H.D.; McElhaney, K.L.; Otaduy, P.J.; Staunton, R.H.; Vesely, W.E.

1999-01-01

Recent nuclear industry reevaluation of component inservice testing (IST) requirements is resulting in requests for IST interval extensions and changes to traditional IST programs. To evaluate these requests, long-term component performance and the methods for mitigating degradation need to be understood. Determining the appropriate IST intervals, along with component testing, monitoring, trending, and maintenance effects, has become necessary. This study provides guidelines to support the evaluation of IST intervals for pumps and motor-operated valves (MOVs). It presents specific engineering information pertinent to the performance and monitoring/testing of pumps and MOVs, provides an analytical methodology for assessing the bounding effects of aging on component margin behavior, and identifies basic elements of an overall program to help ensure component operability. Guidance for assessing probabilistic methods and the risk importance and safety consequences of the performance of pumps and MOVs has not been specifically included within the scope of this report, but these elements may be included in licensee change requests

Evaluation of piping reliability and failure data for use in risk-based inspections of nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vasconcelos, V. de; Soares, W.A.; Costa, A.C.L. da; Rabello, E.G.; Marques, R.O.

2016-01-01

During operation of industrial facilities, components and systems can deteriorate over time, thus increasing the possibility of accidents. Risk-Based Inspection (RBI) involves inspection planning based on information about risks, through assessing of probability and consequence of failures. In-service inspections are used in nuclear power plants, in order to ensure reliable and safe operation. Traditional deterministic inspection approaches investigate generic degradation mechanisms on all systems. However, operating experience indicates that degradation occurs where there are favorable conditions for developing a specific mechanism. Inspections should be prioritized at these places. Risk-Informed In-service Inspections (RI-ISI) are types of RBI that use Probabilistic Safety Assessment results, increasing reliability and plant safety, and reducing radiation exposure. These assessments use both available generic reliability and failure data, as well as plant specific information. This paper proposes a method for evaluating piping reliability and failure data important for RI-ISI programs, as well as the techniques involved. (author)

Evaluation of piping reliability and failure data for use in risk-based inspections of nuclear power plants

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Vasconcelos, V. de; Soares, W.A.; Costa, A.C.L. da; Rabello, E.G.; Marques, R.O., E-mail: vasconv@cdtn.br [Centro de Desenvolvimento da Tecnologia Nuclear (CDTN/CNEN-MG), Belo Horizonte, MG (Brazil)

2016-07-01

During operation of industrial facilities, components and systems can deteriorate over time, thus increasing the possibility of accidents. Risk-Based Inspection (RBI) involves inspection planning based on information about risks, through assessing of probability and consequence of failures. In-service inspections are used in nuclear power plants, in order to ensure reliable and safe operation. Traditional deterministic inspection approaches investigate generic degradation mechanisms on all systems. However, operating experience indicates that degradation occurs where there are favorable conditions for developing a specific mechanism. Inspections should be prioritized at these places. Risk-Informed In-service Inspections (RI-ISI) are types of RBI that use Probabilistic Safety Assessment results, increasing reliability and plant safety, and reducing radiation exposure. These assessments use both available generic reliability and failure data, as well as plant specific information. This paper proposes a method for evaluating piping reliability and failure data important for RI-ISI programs, as well as the techniques involved. (author)

Measurements and evaluation of the risks due to external radiation exposures and to intake of activated elements for operational staff engaged in the maintenance of medical cyclotrons.

Science.gov (United States)

Calandrino, R; del Vecchio, A; Parisi, R; Todde, S; De Felice, P; Savi, A; Pepe, A; Mrskova, A

2010-06-01

The aim of this paper is to assess the activation phenomena and to evaluate the risk of external exposure and intake doses for the maintenance staff of two medical cyclotrons. Two self-shielded cyclotrons are currently operating in the facility for the routine production of (11)C and (18)F. Four radiochemistry laboratories are linked to the cyclotrons by means of shielded radioisotope delivery lines. Radiopharmaceuticals are prepared both for the PET Diagnostic Department, where four CT-PET scanners are operating with a mean patient workload of 40 d(-1) and for [(18)F]FDG external distribution, to provide radiopharmaceuticals for other institutions. In spite of the fact that air contamination inside the radiochemistry laboratories during the synthesis represents the largest 'slice of the pie' in the evaluation of annual intake dose, potential contamination due to the activated particulate, generated during cyclotron irradiation by micro-corrosion of targets and other components potentially struck by the proton beam and generated neutrons, should be considered. In this regard, the most plausible long-lived (T(1/2) > 30 d) radioisotopes formed are: (97)Tc, (56)Co, (57)Co, (58)Co, (60)Co, (49)V, (55)Fe, (109)Cd, (65)Zn and (22)Na. The results for the operating personnel survey has revealed only low-level contamination for (65)Zn in one test, together with minor (18)F intake, probably due to the environmental dispersion of the radioisotope during the [(18)F]FDG synthesis.

At-Risk Youth Appearance and Job Performance Evaluation

Science.gov (United States)

Freeburg, Beth Winfrey; Workman, Jane E.

2008-01-01

The goal of this study was to identify the relationship of at-risk youth workplace appearance to other job performance criteria. Employers (n = 30; each employing from 1 to 17 youths) evaluated 178 at-risk high school youths who completed a paid summer employment experience. Appearance evaluations were significantly correlated with evaluations of…

The risks of liability for former mine operators: the implementation of a plan for preventing legal risks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Martinet, Y.

2004-01-01

Shutting down mines has 'mechanically' increased the risks of cave-ins. The local (communal and/or departmental) administrations responsible for supervising the situation do not necessarily have the means for managing shafts and tunnels. For this reason, two acts were passed in 1994 and 1999 to reform how mines are managed after shutdowns. Managing post-mining operations has spawned lawsuits against former operators, even though they shut down their mines in compliance with the laws and regulations in force at the time. By virtue of these two acts, administrative authorities are now trying to make the former operators fill in shafts and tunnels. Moreover, individuals often try to obtain compensation for the damages caused by shut-down mines. This situation causes uncertainty for various parties; and the legal settlements being proposed are not sufficiently clear. Information is provided for thinking about how to implement a 'legal risk prevention plan', which former mine operators should bear in mind. (author)

Prior inpatient admission increases the risk of post-operative infection in hepatobiliary and pancreatic surgery.

Science.gov (United States)

Dong, Zachary M; Chidi, Alexis P; Goswami, Julie; Han, Katrina; Simmons, Richard L; Rosengart, Matthew R; Tsung, Allan

2015-12-01

Hepatobiliary and pancreatic (HPB) operations have a high incidence of post-operative nosocomial infections. The aim of the present study was to determine whether hospitalization up to 1 year before HPB surgery is associated with an increased risk of post-operative infection, surgical-site infection (SSI) and infection resistant to surgical chemoprophylaxis. A retrospective cohort study of patients undergoing HPB surgeries between January 2008 and June 2013 was conducted. A multivariable logistic regression model was used for controlling for potential confounders to determine the association between pre-operative admission and post-operative infection. Of the 1384 patients who met eligibility criteria, 127 (9.18%) experienced a post-operative infection. Pre-operative hospitalization was independently associated with an increased risk of a post-operative infection [adjusted odds ratio (aOR): 1.61, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.06-2.46] and SSI (aOR: 1.79, 95% CI: 1.07-2.97). Pre-operative hospitalization was also associated with an increased risk of post-operative infections resistant to standard pre-operative antibiotics (OR: 2.64, 95% CI: 1.06-6.59) and an increased risk of resistant SSIs (OR: 3.99, 95% CI: 1.25-12.73). Pre-operative hospitalization is associated with an increased incidence of post-operative infections, often with organisms that are resistant to surgical chemoprophylaxis. Patients hospitalized up to 1 year before HPB surgery may benefit from extended spectrum chemoprophylaxis. © 2015 International Hepato-Pancreato-Biliary Association.

Assessing the feasibility of the Healthy Life in Suriname Study: using advanced hemodynamics to evaluate cardiovascular risk

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jet Q. Aartman

2017-06-01

Full Text Available ABSTRACT Objectives To determine the feasibility of assessing population cardiovascular risk with advanced hemodynamics in the Healthy Life in Suriname (HELISUR study. Methods This was a preliminary study conducted in May – June 2012 using the Technical-Economic-Legal-Operational-Scheduling (TELOS method to assess the feasibility of the HELISUR—a large-scale, cross-sectional population study of cardiovascular risk factors and disease in Suriname. Suriname, a middle-income country in South America with a population of mostly African and Asian ethnicity, has a high risk of cardiovascular disease. A total of 135 volunteers 18 – 70 years of age participated. A health questionnaire was tested in a primary health care center, and non-invasive cardiovascular evaluations were performed in an academic health center. The cardiovascular evaluation included sitting, supine, and standing blood pressure, and intermediate endpoints, such as cardiac output, peripheral vascular resistance, pulse wave velocity, and augmentation index. Results The TELOS testing found that communicating by cellular phone was most effective for appointment adherence, and that completion of the questionnaire often required assistance from a trained interviewer; modifications to improve the clarity of the questions are recommended. Regarding the extended cardiovascular assessments of peripheral and central hemodynamics, the findings showed these to be technically and operationally feasible and well tolerated by participants, in terms of burden and duration. Conclusions Findings of this feasibility assessment indicate that large-scale, detailed evaluations of cardiovascular risk, including a questionnaire and advanced central and peripheral hemodynamics, are feasible in a high-risk population in a middle-income setting.

Risk assessment in the field of energy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Berg, M.; Erdmann, G.; Leist, A.; Renn, O.; Schaber, P.; Scheringer, M.; Seiler, H.; Wiedenmann, R.

1995-01-01

The following subjects are dealt with in this book: - ethical thoughts on damage, risks and uncertainty, - risk evaluation from the point of view of sociology, - risk evaluation in the economy, - risk evaluation in law, - environmental damage due to the operation of energy generating systems. figs., tabs., refs

Risk monitor-a tool for computer aided risk assessment for NPPs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vinod, Gopika; Saraf, R.K.; Babar, A.K.; Kushwaha, H.S.; Hadap, Nikhil

2001-01-01

Considerable changes occur in components status and system design and subsequent operation due to changes in plant configuration and their operating procedures. These changes are organised because some components are randomly down and other can be planned for test, maintenance and repair. This results in a fluctuation of risk level over operating time, which is termed as risk profile. Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) is an analytical technique for assessing the risk by integrating diverse aspects of design and operation of a Nuclear Power Plant. Risk can be defined as the product of the probability of an accident and the consequences from that accident. Reactor Safety Division of BARC has developed PC based tool, which can assess the risk profile. This package can be used to optimise the operation in Nuclear Power Plants with respect to a minimum risk level over the operating time, and is termed as Risk Monitor. Risk Monitor is user friendly and can re-evaluate core damage frequency for changes in component status, test interval, initiating event frequency etc. Plant restoration advice, when the plant is in high risk configuration, current status of all plant equipment, and equipment prioritization are also provided by the package. (author)

Development and Evaluation of an Automated Machine Learning Algorithm for In-Hospital Mortality Risk Adjustment Among Critical Care Patients.

Science.gov (United States)

Delahanty, Ryan J; Kaufman, David; Jones, Spencer S

2018-06-01

Risk adjustment algorithms for ICU mortality are necessary for measuring and improving ICU performance. Existing risk adjustment algorithms are not widely adopted. Key barriers to adoption include licensing and implementation costs as well as labor costs associated with human-intensive data collection. Widespread adoption of electronic health records makes automated risk adjustment feasible. Using modern machine learning methods and open source tools, we developed and evaluated a retrospective risk adjustment algorithm for in-hospital mortality among ICU patients. The Risk of Inpatient Death score can be fully automated and is reliant upon data elements that are generated in the course of usual hospital processes. One hundred thirty-one ICUs in 53 hospitals operated by Tenet Healthcare. A cohort of 237,173 ICU patients discharged between January 2014 and December 2016. The data were randomly split into training (36 hospitals), and validation (17 hospitals) data sets. Feature selection and model training were carried out using the training set while the discrimination, calibration, and accuracy of the model were assessed in the validation data set. Model discrimination was evaluated based on the area under receiver operating characteristic curve; accuracy and calibration were assessed via adjusted Brier scores and visual analysis of calibration curves. Seventeen features, including a mix of clinical and administrative data elements, were retained in the final model. The Risk of Inpatient Death score demonstrated excellent discrimination (area under receiver operating characteristic curve = 0.94) and calibration (adjusted Brier score = 52.8%) in the validation dataset; these results compare favorably to the published performance statistics for the most commonly used mortality risk adjustment algorithms. Low adoption of ICU mortality risk adjustment algorithms impedes progress toward increasing the value of the healthcare delivered in ICUs. The Risk of Inpatient Death

IBM PC/IX operating system evaluation plan

Science.gov (United States)

Dominick, Wayne D. (Editor); Granier, Martin; Hall, Philip P.; Triantafyllopoulos, Spiros

1984-01-01

An evaluation plan for the IBM PC/IX Operating System designed for IBM PC/XT computers is discussed. The evaluation plan covers the areas of performance measurement and evaluation, software facilities available, man-machine interface considerations, networking, and the suitability of PC/IX as a development environment within the University of Southwestern Louisiana NASA PC Research and Development project. In order to compare and evaluate the PC/IX system, comparisons with other available UNIX-based systems are also included.

Guide of Evaluation of the Operation of Incinerators of Solid Waste in Costa Rica

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Herrera Sanchez, J.

2001-01-01

This project has as general objective to prepare, in accordance with the effective Costa Rica legislation, a guide to evaluate the operation of incinerators of solid waste in Costa Rica. For this, it was necessary to define the parameters and approaches to evaluate the operation of an incineration center, as well as to investigate the regulations related with the topic in our country and to detail the technical specifications of equipment of this nature.The guide embraces such aspects as the specifications of the equipment and chimney, the type of waste to incinerate, the control of gassy emissions and the administration of the scums, distributed in several sections: administration, legislation, waste type, details technician, control and operation. Initially, the state of operation of an incinerator belonging to a hospital center and the project of energy recycling that impels the National Industry of Cements are evaluated. A study of the current state of the incineration of waste in the country must monitor the gassy emissions, the variables of the water heater-chemical process and the operation conditions. For limitations in the availability of the data and for the non existence of similar studies in the country, some of the parameters proposed in the guide are not evaluated. According to spokesmen of the Ministry of Public Health, only five incinerators operate in the country. Of these, none has location permission, construction or sanitary permission of operation, and data on their operation conditions are not carried, neither control of the incinerated waste is taken, of its operation frequency and even less the generated gassy emissions. It is necessary to adapt the standards of emission of Costa Rica (PRONASA Report) to the international standards, incorporating new pollutants (dioxins, furanos) and appropriating the existent ones (solid particles). In the case of our country, the incineration should be constituted in a stage of the process of integral

Higher operational safety of nuclear power plants by evaluating the behaviour of operating personnel

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mertins, M.; Glasner, P.

1990-01-01

In the GDR power reactors have been operated since 1966. Since that time operational experiences of 73 cumulative reactor years have been collected. The behaviour of operating personnel is an essential factor to guarantee the safety of operation of the nuclear power plant. Therefore a continuous analysis of the behaviour of operating personnel has been introduced at the GDR nuclear power plants. In the paper the overall system of the selection, preparation and control of the behaviour of nuclear power plant operating personnel is presented. The methods concerned are based on recording all errors of operating personnel and on analyzing them in order to find out the reasons. The aim of the analysis of reasons is to reduce the number of errors. By a feedback of experiences the nuclear safety of the nuclear power plant can be increased. All data necessary for the evaluation of errors are recorded and evaluated by a computer program. This method is explained thoroughly in the paper. Selected results of error analysis are presented. It is explained how the activities of the personnel are made safer by means of this analysis. Comparisons with other methods are made. (author). 3 refs, 4 figs

RISK MANAGEMENT IN THE OPERATING ACTIVITIES OF AN ENTERPRISE AND IN PUBLIC-PRIVATE PARTNERSHIP PROJECTS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lech Jędrzejewski

2017-03-01

Full Text Available The paper is devoted to issues related to building a risk management system for businesses in the areas of operations and implementation of infrastructure projects. The article defines the concept of risk in business processes and identifies risks occurring in infrastructure projects. In the text, the principles have been presented for protection against the effects of political, contracting, environmental, ecological, product, process, operational and personnel risk.

PSA-based evaluation and rating of operational events

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gomez Cobo, A.

1997-01-01

The presentation discusses the PSA-based evaluation and rating of operational events, including the following: historical background, procedures for event evaluation using PSA, use of PSA for event rating, current activities

Forest fire risk assessment-an integrated approach based on multicriteria evaluation.

Science.gov (United States)

Goleiji, Elham; Hosseini, Seyed Mohsen; Khorasani, Nematollah; Monavari, Seyed Masoud

2017-11-06

The present study deals with application of the weighted linear combination method for zoning of forest fire risk in Dohezar and Sehezar region of Mazandaran province in northern Iran. In this study, the effective criteria for fires were identified by the Delphi method, and these included ecological and socioeconomic parameters. In this regard, the first step comprised of digital layers; the required data were provided from databases, related centers, and field data collected in the region. Then, the map of criteria was digitized in a geographic information system, and all criteria and indexes were normalized by fuzzy logic. After that, the geographic information system (GIS 10.3) was integrated with the Weighted Linear Combination and the Analytical Network Process, to produce zonation of the forest fire risk map in the Dohezar and Sehezar region. In order to analyze accuracy of the evaluation, the results obtained from the study were compared to records of former fire incidents in the region. This was done using the Kappa coefficient test and a receiver operating characteristic curve. The model showing estimations for forest fire risk explained that the prepared map had accuracy of 90% determined by the Kappa coefficient test and the value of 0.924 by receiver operating characteristic. These results showed that the prepared map had high accuracy and efficacy.

Operational risk: A Basel II++ step before Basel III

OpenAIRE

Guegan , Dominique; Hassani , Bertrand

2011-01-01

URL des Documents de travail : http://ces.univ-paris1.fr/cesdp/cesdp2012.html An article based on this working paper is published in Journal of Risk Management in Financial Institutions, 2012/13, Volume 6, 37-53; Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 2011.53 - ISSN : 1955-611X - Version originale Septembre 2011, révisée en Juillet 2012; Following Banking Committee on Banking Supervision, operational risk quantification is based on the Basel matrix which enables sorting inc...

76 FR 29992 - Loan Policies and Operations; Lending and Leasing Limits and Risk Management

Science.gov (United States)

2011-05-24

... FARM CREDIT ADMINISTRATION 12 CFR Part 614 RIN 3052-AC60 Loan Policies and Operations; Lending and Leasing Limits and Risk Management AGENCY: Farm Credit Administration. ACTION: Final rule. SUMMARY: The... (collectively loan) concentration risks. We expect this final rule will increase the safe and sound operation of...

Evaluation of consequences and risks in Slovenia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Susnik, J.

1996-01-01

The paper describes the evaluation of nuclear power plant accident consequences and risks using probabilistic safety codes during the last 12 years at the J. Stefan Institute. They cover classic individual and population risk studies due to assumed potential severe accident scenarios, prediction and estimation of Chernobyl accident consequences, the optimization of emergency countermeasures at the Krsko site, where the 632 MWe Westinghouse PWR NPP went into commercial operation on January 1983, and the ranking of population risk within the public debate in connection with the civil initiative to close the NPP Krsko. We report on the initial use of the CRAC2 code in 1984 and later, when it was first applied for the study of population risk in the area of the second planned Slovenian-Croatian NPP for the Prevlaka site. The study was completed a few weeks before the Chernobyl accident in April 1986. Risk evaluation was also included in the analysis of nuclear safety at the NPP Krsko during the war for Slovenia's independence in 1991. We report on the (CRAC2) analyses of the Chernobyl accident: on initial estimation of the maximal potentially expected consequences in Slovenia, on the effect of the radioactive cloud rise on the consequences relatively close to the NPP; on the further research after the detailed information on the radioactivity release and on the air masses movement were published; then the cloud activity which moved towards Slovenia was assessed and the expected consequences along its path were calculated. As the calculated integral individual exposure to the I 131 inhalation and the ground Cs 137 contamination matched with the measurements in Ljubljana and with the UNSCEAR 1988 data, our reliance on the CRAC2 code and on its ancestors is high. We report on the analyses, performed by the CRAC2 code and since 1993 also by the PC COSYMA code, related to the countermeasure effects. The consequences studied were extended to late health effects. We analyzed

Strengthening air traffic safety management by moving from outcome-based towards risk-based evaluation of runway incursions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stroeve, Sybert H.; Som, Pradip; Doorn, Bas A. van; Bakker, G.J.

2016-01-01

Current safety management of aerodrome operations uses judgements of severity categories to evaluate runway incursions. Incident data show a small minority of severe incursions and a large majority of less severe incursions. We show that these severity judgements are mainly based upon the outcomes of runway incursions, in particular on the closest distances attained. As such, the severity-based evaluation leads to coincidental safety management feedback, wherein causes and risk implications of runway incursions are not well considered. In this paper we present a new framework for the evaluation of runway incursions, which effectively uses all runway incursions, which judges same types of causes similarly, and which structures causes and risk implications. The framework is based on risks of scenarios associated with the initiation of runway incursions. As a basis an inventory of scenarios is provided, which can represent almost all runway incursions involving a conflict with an aircraft. A main step in the framework is the assessment of the conditional probability of a collision given a runway incursion scenario. This can be effectively achieved for large sets of scenarios by agent-based dynamic risk modelling. The results provide detailed feedback on risks of runway incursion scenarios, thus enabling effective safety management. - Highlights: • Current evaluation of runway incursions is primarily based on their outcomes. • A new framework assesses collision risk given initiation of runway incursions. • Agent-based dynamic risk modelling can evaluate the risks of many scenarios. • A developed scenario inventory can represent almost all runway incursions. • The framework provides detailed feedback to safety management.

Consumer Evaluations of Food Risk Management Quality in Europe

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kleef, van E.; Houghton, J.R.; Krystallis, A.; Pfenning, U.; Rowe, G.; Dijk, van H.; Lans, van der I.A.; Frewer, L.J.

2007-01-01

In developing and implementing appropriate food risk management strategies, it is important to understand how consumers evaluate the quality of food risk management practices. The aim of this study is to model the underlying psychological factors influencing consumer evaluations of food risk

Operation of inspection data acquisition and evaluation system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Takahashi, Yoichi; Harada, Hiroshi; Watanabe, Masayuki; Sakaguchi, Makoto; Ishikawa, Masayuki

2016-01-01

Rokkasho Reprocessing Plant (RRP) is a large scale plant to treat a huge amount of Plutonium significant for safeguards. The LArge SCAle Reprocessing plant safeguards (LASCAR) Forum recommended an effective utilization of unattended verification systems and automated data acquisition system etc. Based on LASCAR recommendation, Nuclear Material Control Center (NMCC) has developed the inspection data acquisition system as the automated data acquisition system from the unattended verification systems (including non-destructive assay equipment, solution monitoring system and surveillance camera). The data gathered from the unattended verification system are provided to the inspection data evaluation system for the State and the IAEA. In this development, redundancy concepts for data transfer line, in order to prevent inspection data missing, were introduced, and the timely confirmation of solution behaver such as material flows and inventories by the solution monitoring can be achieved. Furthermore, for purpose of efficiency of evaluation of inspection activity for the State, NMCC has developed the inspection data evaluation system which operates automated partition of inspection data coming from each verification equipment. Additionally, the inspection data system evaluation can manage the inspection activities and their efforts. These development and operation have been funded by JSGO (Japan Safeguards Office). This paper describes development history and operation of the inspection data acquisition and evaluation system. (author)

Risk Management Technique for design and operation of facilities and equipment

Science.gov (United States)

Fedor, O. H.; Parsons, W. N.; Coutinho, J. De S.

1975-01-01

The Risk Management System collects information from engineering, operating, and management personnel to identify potentially hazardous conditions. This information is used in risk analysis, problem resolution, and contingency planning. The resulting hazard accountability system enables management to monitor all identified hazards. Data from this system are examined in project reviews so that management can decide to eliminate or accept these risks. This technique is particularly effective in improving the management of risks in large, complex, high-energy facilities. These improvements are needed for increased cooperation among industry, regulatory agencies, and the public.

Dynamic Bayesian modeling for risk prediction in credit operations

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Borchani, Hanen; Martinez, Ana Maria; Masegosa, Andres

2015-01-01

Our goal is to do risk prediction in credit operations, and as data is collected continuously and reported on a monthly basis, this gives rise to a streaming data classification problem. Our analysis reveals some practical problems that have not previously been thoroughly analyzed in the context...

Risk evaluation of remedial alternatives for the Hanford Site

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Clark, S.W.; Lane, N.K.; Swenson, L.

1994-01-01

Risk assessment is one of the many tools used to evaluate and select remedial alternatives and evaluate the risk associated with selected remedial alternatives during and after implementation. The risk evaluation of remedial alternatives (RERA) is performed to ensure selected alternatives are protective of human health and the environment. Final remedy selection is promulgated in a record of decision (ROD) and risks of the selected alternatives are documented. Included in the ROD documentation are the risk-related analyses for long-term effectiveness, short-term effectiveness, and overall protection of human health and the environment including how a remedy will eliminate, reduce or control risks and whether exposure will be reduced to acceptable levels. A major goal of RERA in the process leading to a ROD is to provide decision-makers with specific risk information that may be needed to choose among alternatives. For the Hanford Site, there are many considerations that must be addressed from a risk perspective. These include the large size of the Hanford Site, the presence of both chemical and radionuclide contamination, one likelihood of many analogues sites, public and worker health and safety, and stakeholder concern with ecological impacts from site contamination and remedial actions. A RERA methodology has been promulgated to (1) identify the points in the process leading to a ROD where risk assessment input is either required or desirable and (2) provide guidance on how to evaluate risks associated with remedial alternatives under consideration. The methodology and evaluations parallel EPA guidance requiring consideration of short-term impacts and the overall protectiveness of remedial actions for evaluating potential human health and ecological risks during selection of remedial alternatives, implementation of remedial measures, and following completion of remedial action

Evaluating emergency risk communications: a dialogue with the experts.

Science.gov (United States)

Thomas, Craig W; Vanderford, Marsha L; Crouse Quinn, Sandra

2008-10-01

Evaluating emergency risk communications is fraught with challenges since communication can be approached from both a systemic and programmatic level. Therefore, one must consider stakeholders' perspectives, effectiveness issues, standards of evidence and utility, and channels of influence (e.g., mass media and law enforcement). Evaluation issues related to timing, evaluation questions, methods, measures, and accountability are raised in this dialogue with emergency risk communication specialists. Besides the usual evaluation competencies, evaluators in this area need to understand and work collaboratively with stakeholders and be attuned to the dynamic contextual nature of emergency risk communications. Sample resources and measures are provided here to aid in this emerging and exciting field of evaluation.

Determination operation Time Risk of Box Spinning Components-oe Spinning Machine

OpenAIRE

Slobodan Stefanovic

2013-01-01

Based on the constructed dependency diagram reliability of the exploitation operation time of each constituent components of the analyzed frame in the case of selected statistical distributions, areas of the operation exploitation and repair intervals are determined. This is done by determining the first inflection points. Based on these points analysis to determine the time of safety operation of frame components with allowable risk to the segmental linear function of the intensity of failur...

Probabilistic risk assessment methodology for risk management and regulatory applications

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

See Meng Wong; Kelly, D.L.; Riley, J.E.

1997-01-01

This paper discusses the development and potential applications of PRA methodology for risk management and regulatory applications in the U.S. nuclear industry. The new PRA methodology centers on the development of This paper discusses the time-dependent configuration risk profile for evaluating the effectiveness of operational risk management programs at U.S. nuclear power plants. Configuration-risk profiles have been used as risk-information tools for (1) a better understanding of the impact of daily operational activities on plant safety, and (2) proactive planning of operational activities to manage risk. Trial applications of the methodology were undertaken to demonstrate that configuration-risk profiles can be developed routinely, and can be useful for various industry and regulatory applications. Lessons learned include a better understanding of the issues and characteristics of PRA models available to industry, and identifying the attributes and pitfalls in the developement of risk profiles

Environmental Risk Evaluation System (ERES) for Offshore Wind - Mock-Up of ERES, Fiscal Year 2010 Progress Report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Anderson, Richard M.; Copping, Andrea E.; Van Cleve, Frances B.

2010-11-01

The Environmental Risk Evaluation System (ERES) has been created to set priorities among the environmental risks from offshore wind development. This report follows the conceptual design for ERES and shows what the system would look like, using a web interface created as part of a Knowledge Management System (KMS) for offshore wind. The KMS, called Zephyrus, and ERES for offshore wind, will be populated and made operational in a later phase of the project.

Methodology for Radiological Risk Assessment of Deep Borehole Disposal Operations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hardin, Ernest; Su, Jiann-Cherng; Peretz, Fred(ORNL)

2017-03-01

The primary purpose of the preclosure radiological safety assessment (that this document supports) is to identify risk factors for disposal operations, to aid in design for the deep borehole field test (DBFT) engineering demonstration.

An evaluation of a risk-based environmental regulation in Brazil: Limitations to risk management of hazardous installations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Naime, Andre

2017-01-01

The environmental regulation of hazardous projects with risk-based decision-making processes can lead to a deficient management of human exposure to technological hazards. Such an approach for regulation is criticized for simplifying the complexity of decisions involving the economic, social, and environmental aspects of the installation and operation of hazardous facilities in urban areas. Results of a Brazilian case study indicate that oil and gas transmission pipelines may represent a threat to diverse communities if the relationship between such linear projects and human populations is overlooked by regulatory bodies. Results also corroborate known challenges to the implementation of EIA processes and outline limitations to an effective environmental and risk management. Two preliminary topics are discussed to strengthen similar regulatory practices. Firstly, an effective integration between social impact assessment and risk assessment in EIA processes to have a more comprehensive understanding of the social fabric. Secondly, the advancement of traditional management practices for hazardous installations to pursue a strong transition from assessment and evaluation to management and control and to promote an effective interaction between land-use planning and environmental regulation.

An evaluation of a risk-based environmental regulation in Brazil: Limitations to risk management of hazardous installations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Naime, Andre, E-mail: andre.naime.ibama@gmail.com

2017-03-15

The environmental regulation of hazardous projects with risk-based decision-making processes can lead to a deficient management of human exposure to technological hazards. Such an approach for regulation is criticized for simplifying the complexity of decisions involving the economic, social, and environmental aspects of the installation and operation of hazardous facilities in urban areas. Results of a Brazilian case study indicate that oil and gas transmission pipelines may represent a threat to diverse communities if the relationship between such linear projects and human populations is overlooked by regulatory bodies. Results also corroborate known challenges to the implementation of EIA processes and outline limitations to an effective environmental and risk management. Two preliminary topics are discussed to strengthen similar regulatory practices. Firstly, an effective integration between social impact assessment and risk assessment in EIA processes to have a more comprehensive understanding of the social fabric. Secondly, the advancement of traditional management practices for hazardous installations to pursue a strong transition from assessment and evaluation to management and control and to promote an effective interaction between land-use planning and environmental regulation.

Operative Duration and Risk of Surgical Site Infection in Neurosurgery.

Science.gov (United States)

Bekelis, Kimon; Coy, Shannon; Simmons, Nathan

2016-10-01

The association of surgical duration with the risk of surgical site infection (SSI) has not been quantified in neurosurgery. We investigated the association of operative duration in neurosurgical procedures with the incidence of SSI. We performed a retrospective cohort study involving patients who underwent neurosurgical procedures from 2005 to 2012 and were registered in the American College of Surgeons National Quality Improvement Project registry. To control for confounding, we used multivariable regression models and propensity score conditioning. During the study period there were 94,744 patients who underwent a neurosurgical procedure and met the inclusion criteria. Of these patients, 4.1% developed a postoperative SSI within 30 days. Multivariable logistic regression showed an association between longer operative duration with higher incidence of SSI (odds ratio [OR], 1.18; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.16-1.20). Compared with procedures of moderate duration (third quintile, 40th-60th percentile), patients undergoing the longest procedures (>80th percentile) had higher odds (OR, 2.07; 95% CI, 1.86-2.31) of developing SSI. The shortest procedures (operative duration was associated with increased incidence of SSI for neurosurgical procedures. These results can be used by neurosurgeons to inform operative management and to stratify patients with regard to SSI risk. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Accident sequences evaluation using SFATs for low power and shutdown operation of pressurized heavy water reactors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Chansoo; Chung, Chang-Hyun; Yang, Huichang

2004-01-01

To maintain the level of defense-in-depth safety of Pressurized Heavy Water Reactor (PHWR) during LP/SD operation, the qualitative risk evaluation methods such as Safety Function Assessment Trees (SFATs) are required. Therefore SFATs are suggested to assess and manage the PHWR safety in LP/SD. Before this study, safety functions of PHWR were classified into 7 groups; Reactivity Control, Core Cooling, Secondary Heat Removal, Primary Heat Transport Inventory, Essential Electrical Power, Cooling Water, and Containment Integrity. The SFATs for PHWR LP/SD operations were developed along with the Plant Outage Status (POS) variation, and totally 38 SFATs were developed for Wolsung Unit 2. For the verification of SFATs logics developed, top 5 accident sequences those contribute the CDF of PHWR were selected, and plant safety status were evaluated for those accident sequences. Accident sequences such as DCC-4 (Dual Control Computer Failure), CL4-16 (Total Loss of Class IV Power), and FWPV-11 (Loss of Feedwater Supply to SG due to Failure of Pumps/Values) were included. In this research the evaluation of plant safety status by accident sequences using SFATs and the verification of the SFATs were performed. Through the verification of SFAT logics, the enhancements to the internal logics of the SFATs were made, and the dependencies between safety systems and support systems were considered. It is expected the defense-in-depth evaluation model of PHW just as SFATs can be utilized in the configuration risk management program (CRMP) development and improve technical specifications development for Korean PHWRs. (author)

Risk management of exposure to chemicals under operational conditions

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Langenberg, J.P.

2007-01-01

The HFM panel has decided to install an Exploratory Team, ET-078, which should advise whether or not a Technical Group (TG) should be established on the subject of risk management of exposure to chemicals under operational conditions. This paper described the context and approach of ET-078.

Minimally traumatic stapes surgery for otosclerosis: Risk reduction of post-operative vertigo

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

An-Suey Shiao

2018-06-01

Full Text Available Background: The author (Dr. Shiao modified traditional stapes surgery (TSS specifically for patients with otosclerosis. The proposed technique, referred to as minimally traumatic stapes surgery (MTSS, reduces the risk of subjective discomfort (i.e. vertigo and tinnitus following surgery. This paper compares the effectiveness of MTSS with that of TSS. Methods: The medical records of patients with otosclerosis after stapes surgery (TSS or MTSS were analyzed. Outcome variables included post-operative vertigo, tinnitus, and hearing success. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to determine the correlation between surgical technique and outcome variables. Results: TSS was performed in 23 otosclerosis ears and MTSS was performed in 33 otosclerosis ears. The risk of post-operative vertigo was significantly lower among patients that underwent MTSS (27% than among those that underwent TSS (83%, p < 0.001. No differences in the incidence of tinnitus were observed between the two groups. Post-operative audiometric outcomes were also equivalent between the two groups. However, multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed a correlation between post-operative vertigo and surgical technique (p < 0.001. Conclusion: MTSS involves a lower risk of vertigo than does TSS. MTSS helps to prevent damage to the footplate, thereby reducing the risk of footplate floating. Therefore, MTSS provides a means to overcome some of the limitations associated with the narrow surgical field in Asian patients. Keywords: Footplate floating, Minimally traumatic, Otosclerosis, Stapes surgery, Vertigo

Research on psychological evaluation method for nuclear power plant operators

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fang Xiang; He Xuhong; Zhao Bingquan

2007-01-01

The qualitative and quantitative psychology evaluation methods to the nuclear power plant operators were analyzed and discussed in the paper. The comparison analysis to the scope and result of application was carried out between method of outline figure fitted and method of fuzzy synthetic evaluation. The research results can be referenced to the evaluation of nuclear power plant operators. (authors)

Evaluation of Risk Metrics for KHNP Reference Plants Using the Latest Plant Specific Data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jeon, Ho Jun; Hwang, Seok Won; Ghi, Moon Goo

2010-01-01

As Risk-Informed Applications (RIAs) are actively implemented in the nuclear industry, an issue associated with the technical adequacy of the Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) arises in its data sources. The American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) PRA standard suggests the use of component failure data that represent the as-built and as-operated plant conditions. Furthermore, the peer reviews for the KHNP reference plants stated that the component failure data should be updated to reflect the latest plant specific data available. For ensuring the technical adequacy in PSA data elements, we try to update component failure data to reflect the as-operated plant conditions, and a trend analysis of the failure data is implemented. In addition, by applying the updated failure data to the PSA models of the KHNP reference plants, the risk metrics of Core Damage Frequency (CDF) and Large Early Release Frequency (LERF) are evaluated

A risk evaluation model and its application in online retailing trustfulness

Science.gov (United States)

Ye, Ruyi; Xu, Yingcheng

2017-08-01

Building a general model for risks evaluation in advance could improve the convenience, normality and comparability of the results of repeating risks evaluation in the case that the repeating risks evaluating are in the same area and for a similar purpose. One of the most convenient and common risks evaluation models is an index system including of several index, according weights and crediting method. One method to build a risk evaluation index system that guarantees the proportional relationship between the resulting credit and the expected risk loss is proposed and an application example is provided in online retailing in this article.

Evolution and Implementation of the NASA Robotic Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis Concept of Operations

Science.gov (United States)

Newman, L.; Hejduk, M.; Frigm, R.; Duncan, M.

2014-09-01

On-orbit collisions pose a significant mission risk to satellites operating in the space environment. Recognizing the likelihood and consequence of on-orbit collisions, NASA has taken several proactive measures to mitigate the risk of both a catastrophic loss of mission and the increase in the space debris population. In fall 2004, NASA GSFC established an Agency-wide, institutionalized process and service for identifying and reacting to predicted close approaches. The team responsible for executing this mission is the NASA Robotic Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis (CARA) team. By fall 2005, this process had resulted in the execution of the first collision avoidance maneuver by a NASA unmanned satellite. In February 2008, NASA adopted a policy, documented in NASA Procedural Requirement 8715.6a Process for Limiting Orbital Debris that directed maneuverable satellites to have such an on-orbit collision mitigation process. In 2009, NASA decided to require support for all operational satellites. By January 2014, the CARA team has processed nearly 500,000 close approach messages from the Joint Space Operations Center (JSpOC) and has assisted our mission customers with planning and executing over 75 collision avoidance maneuvers for unmanned satellites in LEO, GEO, and HEO orbital regimes. With the increase in number of operational missions supported; growth in the orbital debris environment due to events such as the intentional destruction of the Fengyun 1-C satellite in 2007 and collision between Iridium-33 and Cosmos-2251; and improvements to the United States Space Surveillance Network (SSN) and its ability to track, catalog, and screen against small debris objects, the demands on the CARA process have consequently required the CARA Concept of Operations (CONOPS) to evolve to manage those demands. This evolution is centered on the ability to effectively and efficiently manage JSpOC, CARA, and Mission Operations resources, applying operational and analytical

Prolonged Operative Duration Increases Risk of Surgical Site Infections: A Systematic Review.

Science.gov (United States)

Cheng, Hang; Chen, Brian Po-Han; Soleas, Ireena M; Ferko, Nicole C; Cameron, Chris G; Hinoul, Piet

The incidence of surgical site infection (SSI) across surgical procedures, specialties, and conditions is reported to vary from 0.1% to 50%. Operative duration is often cited as an independent and potentially modifiable risk factor for SSI. The objective of this systematic review was to provide an in-depth understanding of the relation between operating time and SSI. This review included 81 prospective and retrospective studies. Along with study design, likelihood of SSI, mean operative times, time thresholds, effect measures, confidence intervals, and p values were extracted. Three meta-analyses were conducted, whereby odds ratios were pooled by hourly operative time thresholds, increments of increasing operative time, and surgical specialty. Pooled analyses demonstrated that the association between extended operative time and SSI typically remained statistically significant, with close to twice the likelihood of SSI observed across various time thresholds. The likelihood of SSI increased with increasing time increments; for example, a 13%, 17%, and 37% increased likelihood for every 15 min, 30 min, and 60 min of surgery, respectively. On average, across various procedures, the mean operative time was approximately 30 min longer in patients with SSIs compared with those patients without. Prolonged operative time can increase the risk of SSI. Given the importance of SSIs on patient outcomes and health care economics, hospitals should focus efforts to reduce operative time.

Application of a hazard and operability study method to hazard evaluation of a chemical unit of the power station.

Science.gov (United States)

Habibi, E; Zare, M; Barkhordari, A; Mirmohammadi, Sj; Halvani, Ghh

2008-12-28

The aim of this study was to identify the hazards, evaluate their risk factors and determine the measure for promotion of the process and reduction of accidents in the chemical unit of the power station. In this case and qualitative study, HAZOP technique was used to recognize the hazards and problems of operations on the chemical section at power station. Totally, 126 deviations were documented with various causes and consequences. Ranking and evaluation of identified risks indicate that the majority of deviations were categorized as "acceptable" and less than half of that were "unacceptable". The highest calculated risk level (1B) related to both the interruption of acid entry to the discharge pumps and an increased density of the acid. About 27% of the deviations had the lowest risk level (4B). The identification of hazards by HAZOP indicates that it could, systemically, assess and criticize the process of consumption or production of acid and alkali in the chemical unit of power plant.

SYNERGISTIC EFFECTS OF TOTAL QUALITY MANAGEMENT AND OPERATIONAL RISK MANAGEMENT IN CENTRAL BANKS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Radoica Luburić

2012-12-01

Full Text Available This paper focuses on two very important and current approaches to management: Total Quality Management (TQM and Operational Risk Management (ORM. As a paradigm of business success, TQM provides the key assumptions for survival, development and success of an organisation, regardless of any limitations whatsoever. ORM, on the other hand, is predetermined to be an irreplaceable managerial tool that enables organisations to survive in any environment. In times of accelerated political, economic and technological changes, frequent natural disasters, acts of terrorism and other external events, a successful risk management has been gaining importance and becomes one of the key competitive advantages of an organisation. The ultimate objective is to make TQM and ORM, as two rather compatible and complementary approaches to risk management, harmonized, efficient and functional in order to get their synergistic effects in an organisation in full swing and practice. Various organisations, and thus central banks as conservative institutions, have an innovative opportunity to timely minimize their operational risk through preventive, comprehensive and synergistic operation of TQM and ORM and thus significantly contribute to improving their business performance.

Proposed evaluation framework for assessing operator performance with multisensor displays

Science.gov (United States)

Foyle, David C.

1992-01-01

Despite aggressive work on the development of sensor fusion algorithms and techniques, no formal evaluation procedures have been proposed. Based on existing integration models in the literature, an evaluation framework is developed to assess an operator's ability to use multisensor, or sensor fusion, displays. The proposed evaluation framework for evaluating the operator's ability to use such systems is a normative approach: The operator's performance with the sensor fusion display can be compared to the models' predictions based on the operator's performance when viewing the original sensor displays prior to fusion. This allows for the determination as to when a sensor fusion system leads to: 1) poorer performance than one of the original sensor displays (clearly an undesirable system in which the fused sensor system causes some distortion or interference); 2) better performance than with either single sensor system alone, but at a sub-optimal (compared to the model predictions) level; 3) optimal performance (compared to model predictions); or, 4) super-optimal performance, which may occur if the operator were able to use some highly diagnostic 'emergent features' in the sensor fusion display, which were unavailable in the original sensor displays. An experiment demonstrating the usefulness of the proposed evaluation framework is discussed.

RESIDUAL VALUE RISK IN AUTOMOTIVE OPERATING LEASE CONTRACTS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ivan Tot

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The subject of the research in this paper are automotive operating lease contracts in the Croatian business practice. The provisions of the general terms and conditions for operating lease contracts of the Croatian leasing companies are being analysed, particulary those relating to the rights and obligations of the parties to the contract after the operating lease contract was terminated and the motor vehicle returned to the lessor. The existence of three contractual models of the automotive operating lease contract in the Croatian business practice is established, which vary with regard to the assignment and the distribution of the residual value risk. Those contractual models are being compared with the two most common contractual models of automotive lease contracts in the Austrian and German business practice: the lease contract with the excess mileage adjustment and the lease contract with the terminal rent adjustment. On the basis of the results of this comparison, applicability of the legal solutions, developed in the Austrian and German jurisprudence and legal literature regarding the lease contract with the excess mileage adjustment and the lease contract with the terminal rent adjustment, to the automotive operating lease contract within the framework of Croatian law, is being examinded.

Operating experience review for nuclear power plants in the Systematic Evaluation Program

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mays, G.T.; Harrington, K.H.

1982-01-01

The Systematic Evaluation Program Branch (SEPB) of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) is conducting the Systematic Evaluation Program (SEP) whose purpose is to determine the safety margins of the design and operation of the eleven oldest operating commercial nuclear power plants in the United States. This paper describes the methodology and results of the operational experience review portion of the SEP evaluation. SEPB will combine the results from these operational reviews with other safety topic evaluations to perform an integrated assessment of the SEP plants

Holistic Evaluation of Lightweight Operating Systems using the PERCU Method

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kramer, William T.C.; He, Yun (Helen); Carter, Jonathan; Glenski, Joseph; Rippe, Lynn; Cardo, Nicholas

2008-05-01

The scale of Leadership Class Systems presents unique challenges to the features and performance of operating system services. This paper reports results of comprehensive evaluations of two Light Weight Operating Systems (LWOS), Cray's Catamount Virtual Node (CVN) and Linux Environment (CLE) operating systems, on the exact same large-scale hardware. The evaluation was carried out over a 5-month period on NERSC's 19,480 core Cray XT-4, Franklin, using a comprehensive evaluation method that spans Performance, Effectiveness, Reliability, Consistency and Usability criteria for all major subsystems and features. The paper presents the results of the comparison between CVN and CLE, evaluates their relative strengths, and reports observations regarding the world's largest Cray XT-4 as well.

Managing risks of market price uncertainty for a microgrid operation

Science.gov (United States)

Raghavan, Sriram

After deregulation of electricity in the United States, the day-ahead and real-time markets allow load serving entities and generation companies to bid and purchase/sell energy under the supervision of the independent system operator (ISO). The electricity market prices are inherently uncertain, and can be highly volatile. The main objective of this thesis is to hedge against the risk from the uncertainty of the market prices when purchasing/selling energy from/to the market. The energy manager can also schedule distributed generators (DGs) and storage of the microgrid to meet the demand, in addition to energy transactions from the market. The risk measure used in this work is the variance of the uncertain market purchase/sale cost/revenue, assuming the price following a Gaussian distribution. Using Markowitz optimization, the risk is minimized to find the optimal mix of purchase from the markets. The problem is formulated as a mixed integer quadratic program. The microgrid at Illinois Institute of Technology (IIT) in Chicago, IL was used as a case study. The result of this work reveals the tradeoff faced by the microgrid energy manager between minimizing the risk and minimizing the mean of the total operating cost (TOC) of the microgrid. With this information, the microgrid energy manager can make decisions in the day-ahead and real-time markets according to their risk aversion preference. The assumption of market prices following Gaussian distribution is also verified to be reasonable for the purpose of hedging against their risks. This is done by comparing the result of the proposed formulation with that obtained from the sample market prices randomly generated using the distribution of actual historic market price data.

MULTILANGUAGE WEBSITE CONCEPT FOR OPERATIONAL IT RISK RESEARCH

OpenAIRE

Romānovs, Andrejs; Lektauers, Arnis; Merkurjevs, Jurijs; Klimovs, Ruslans

2015-01-01

The paper presents an approach of researches effective organization in sphere of operational IT risk governance. For this purpose, the application of digital multilanguage research area is advised, which can simplify discussion processes for users/researchers from different countries. The concept of multilanguage website is developed based on performed analysis of following modern IT application trends of website development: Web 2.0., social networks, blogs, wiki, etc. Then, practical soluti...

Nuclear data standards - International Evaluation Co-operation volume 7

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Carlson, A.D.; Shibata, K.; Vonach, H.; Hambsch, F.J.; Chen, Z.; Hofmann, H.M.; Oh, S.Y.; Badikov, S.A.; Gai, E.V.; Pronyaev, V.G.; Smith, D.L.; Hale, G.M.; Kawano, T.; Larson, N.M.

2006-01-01

A Working Party on International Evaluation Co-operation was established under the sponsorship of the OECD/NEA Nuclear Science Committee (NSC) to promote the exchange of information on nuclear data evaluations, validation and related topics. Its aim is also to provide a framework for co-operative activities between members of the major nuclear data evaluation projects. This includes the possible exchange of scientists in order to encourage co-operation. Requirements for experimental data resulting from this activity are compiled. The working party determines common criteria for evaluated nuclear data files with a view to assessing and improving the quality and completeness of evaluated data. The parties to the project are: ENDF (United States), JEFF/EFF (NEA Data Bank member countries) and JENDL (Japan). Co-operation with evaluation projects of non-OECD countries is organised through the Nuclear Data Section of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). This report was issued by Subgroup 7, which was in charge of producing new evaluated neutron cross-section standards. When starting the project, there was a general consensus on the need to update these standards, as significant improvements had been made to the experimental database since 1991 when the last evaluation of these standards was performed. The present work was accomplished through efficient collaboration between a task force of the US Cross-section Evaluation Working Group (CSEWG), a Co-ordinated Research Project (CRP) of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and Subgroup 7 of the Working Party on International Evaluation Co-operation (WPEC) of the NEA Nuclear Science Committee. Work is reported on the results of an international effort to evaluate the neutron cross-section standards. The evaluations include the H(n,n), 6 Li(n,t), 10 B(n,α), 10 B(n,α1γ), 197 Au(n,γ), 235 U(n,f) and 238 U(n,f) standard reactions. Evaluations were also produced for the non-standard 238 U(n,γ) and 239 Pu

An application of risk-informed evaluation on MOVs and AOVs for Taiwan BWR-type nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ting, K.; Chen, K.T.; Li, Y.C.; Hwang, S.H.; Chien, F.T.; Kang, J.C.

2008-01-01

Implementing a risk-informed inservice testing (RI-IST) program provides a good aspect to the nuclear power plant licensee as an alternating program in the current ASME Section XI and 10 CFR 50.55a relevant testing programs. RI-IST concentrates testing resources on highly significant components, reduces excess testing burden, increases plant's availability, decreases dose rate on the plant's staff and also reduces cost on plant's operation and maintenance under nuclear safety expectations. Furthermore, RI-IST also gives a feature on prospective licensing change basis to a nuclear power plant's licensee. This study will focus on safety-related and PRA-molded motor-operated valves (MOVs) and air-operated valves (AOVs) under the inservice testing program in boiling water reactor (BWR)-type nuclear power plant. As MOVs and AOVs have crucial safety functions throughout the nuclear power plant's safety systems, the steady operation and performance of MOVs and AOVs will definitely ensure that the nuclear power plant operates under safety expectations; therefore, this is the key reason to implement risk-informed evaluation for MOVs and AOVs in this study and being able to provide the safety significance classification for MOVs and AOVs under the current IST program to the plant's management. As a pilot study of RI-IST, the methodology of qualitative assessment will incorporate with probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) analyzing MOVs' and AOVs' safety significance within the current PRA model. The evaluating result will then classify its safety significance into a high-safety significant component (HSSC) and a low-safety significant component (LSSC) for MOVs and AOVs based on relevant regulatory criteria. With this initiating achievement, it can provide a cornerstone for further studies on the other types of valves and pumps in RI-IST program and also provide a valuable reference as proposing license change to the licensee

Test and evaluation plan for Project W-314 tank farm restoration and safe operations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hays, W.H.

1998-01-01

The ''Tank Farm Restoration and Safe Operations'' (TFRSO), Project W-314 will restore and/or upgrade existing Hanford Tank Farm facilities and systems to ensure that the Tank Farm infrastructure will be able to support near term TWRS Privatization's waste feed delivery and disposal system and continue safe management of tank waste. The capital improvements provided by this project will increase the margin of safety for Tank Farms operations, and will aid in aligning affected Tank Farm systems with compliance requirements from applicable state, Federal, and local regulations. Secondary benefits will be realized subsequent to project completion in the form of reduced equipment down-time, reduced health and safety risks to workers, reduced operating and maintenance costs, and minimization of radioactive and/or hazardous material releases to the environment. The original regulatory (e.g., Executive Orders, WACS, CFRS, permit requirements, required engineering standards, etc.) and institutional (e.g., DOE Orders, Hanford procedures, etc.) requirements for Project W-314 were extracted from the TWRS S/RIDs during the development of the Functions and Requirements (F and Rs). The entire family of requirements were then validated for TWRS and Project W-314. This information was contained in the RDD-100 database and used to establish the original CDR. The Project Hanford Management Contract (PHMC) team recognizes that safety, quality, and cost effectiveness in the Test and Evaluation (T and E) program is achieved through a planned systematic approach to T and E activities. It is to this end that the Test and Evaluation Plan (TEP) is created. The TEP for the TFRSO Project, was developed based on the guidance in HNF-IP-0842, and the Good Practice Guide GPG-FM-005, ''Test and Evaluation,'' which is derived from DOE Order 430.1, ''Life Cycle Asset Management.'' It describes the Test and Evaluation program for the TFRSO project starting with the definitive design phase and ending

The role of risk analysis in control of complex plants' safety operation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dumitrescu, Maria; Preda, Irina Aida; Lazar, Roxana Elena; Carcadea, Elena

1999-01-01

The problem of risk estimation, assessment and control is necessary to be discussed at every decision level of an activity. In this way the performances of a system, action or technology are qualitatively assessed by indicating the possible consequences on environmental, people or property. The paper presents methodologies of risk assessment successfully applied on isotopic separation plants. The quantitative methodologies presented use fault tree and event tree to determine the accident states frequency and physical models to analyse the dispersion in atmosphere of dangerous substances. The qualitative methodologies use fuzzy models for the multi-criteria decision making, models based on risk matrix built on the basis of a combination between severity and probability of maximum admissible consequence. These methodologies present the following steps for applying: familiarising with the activity in study, establishing the adequate method of risk assessment, realising of the model of risk assessment for the activity or objective in study, developing of application of the proposed model. Applying this methodology to isotopic separation plants has led to: analysis of operation events and establishing of principal types of events potentially dangerous, analysis of human error in these plants operation and operating experience assessment, technical specifications optimisation by probabilistic safety assessment, reliability analysis and development of reliability and exploitation events database, post accident events analysis (releases, fires, explosions) and mathematical modelling of dispersion in atmosphere of dangerous substances. The risk concept being complex and with multiple implications, it is not the case of a rigid approaching neither of existence of some methods universally valid. Because of these reasons choosing of the most appropriate method for the risk assessment of an activity, leads to solution in due time, of some problems with economic, social

The role of risk analysis in control of complex plant safe operation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dumitrescu, Maria; Preda, Irina Aida; Lazar, Roxana Elena; Carcadea, Elena

1999-01-01

The problem of risk estimation assessment and control is necessary to be discussed in every decision making level of an activity. Performances of a system, action or technology, by indicating the possible consequences on environment, people or property should be qualitatively assessed. The paper presents methodologies of risk assessment successful applied on isotopic separation plants. The quantitative methodologies presented, use fault tree and event tree to determine the accident states frequency, physical models to analyse the dispersion in atmosphere of dangerous substances. The qualitative methodologies use the fuzzy models for the multicriterial decision making, models based on risk matrix build on the base of combination between the severity and the probability of maximum admissible consequence. These methodologies present the following steps for applying: familiarising with the activity in study, establishing the adequate method of risk assessment, building the model of risk assessment for the activity or objective in study, developing the applications of the proposed model. Applying this methodology to isotopic separation plants have led to: analysis of operation events and establishing of principal types of events potentially dangerous, analysis of human error in these plant operations and operating experience assessment, technical specifications for optimisation by probabilistic safety assessment, reliability analysis and development of reliability and exploitation of events database, post accident events analysis (releases, fires, explosions) and mathematical modelling of dispersion in atmosphere of dangerous substances. The risk concept being complex and with multiple implications, is not the case of a rigid approaching neither of existence of some methods universally valid. Because of these reasons, choosing of the most appropriate method for the risk assessment of an activity, leads to a solution in useful time, of some problems with economic, social

Evaluation of the Prostate Cancer Prevention Trial Risk Calculator in a High-Risk Screening Population

Science.gov (United States)

Kaplan, David J.; Boorjian, Stephen A.; Ruth, Karen; Egleston, Brian L.; Chen, David Y.T.; Viterbo, Rosalia; Uzzo, Robert G.; Buyyounouski, Mark K.; Raysor, Susan; Giri, Veda N.

2009-01-01

Introduction Clinical factors in addition to PSA have been evaluated to improve risk assessment for prostate cancer. The Prostate Cancer Prevention Trial (PCPT) risk calculator provides an assessment of prostate cancer risk based on age, PSA, race, prior biopsy, and family history. This study evaluated the risk calculator in a screening cohort of young, racially diverse, high-risk men with a low baseline PSA enrolled in the Prostate Cancer Risk Assessment Program. Patients and Methods Eligibility for PRAP include men ages 35-69 who are African-American, have a family history of prostate cancer, or have a known BRCA1/2 mutation. PCPT risk scores were determined for PRAP participants, and were compared to observed prostate cancer rates. Results 624 participants were evaluated, including 382 (61.2%) African-American men and 375 (60%) men with a family history of prostate cancer. Median age was 49.0 years (range 34.0-69.0), and median PSA was 0.9 (range 0.1-27.2). PCPT risk score correlated with prostate cancer diagnosis, as the median baseline risk score in patients diagnosed with prostate cancer was 31.3%, versus 14.2% in patients not diagnosed with prostate cancer (p<0.0001). The PCPT calculator similarly stratified the risk of diagnosis of Gleason score ≥7 disease, as the median risk score was 36.2% in patients diagnosed with Gleason ≥7 prostate cancer versus 15.2% in all other participants (p<0.0001). Conclusion PCPT risk calculator score was found to stratify prostate cancer risk in a cohort of young, primarily African-American men with a low baseline PSA. These results support further evaluation of this predictive tool for prostate cancer risk assessment in high-risk men. PMID:19709072

Evaluating the Cost, Safety, and Proliferation Risks of Small Floating Nuclear Reactors.

Science.gov (United States)

Ford, Michael J; Abdulla, Ahmed; Morgan, M Granger

2017-11-01

It is hard to see how our energy system can be decarbonized if the world abandons nuclear power, but equally hard to introduce the technology in nonnuclear energy states. This is especially true in countries with limited technical, institutional, and regulatory capabilities, where safety and proliferation concerns are acute. Given the need to achieve serious emissions mitigation by mid-century, and the multidecadal effort required to develop robust nuclear governance institutions, we must look to other models that might facilitate nuclear plant deployment while mitigating the technology's risks. One such deployment paradigm is the build-own-operate-return model. Because returning small land-based reactors containing spent fuel is infeasible, we evaluate the cost, safety, and proliferation risks of a system in which small modular reactors are manufactured in a factory, and then deployed to a customer nation on a floating platform. This floating small modular reactor would be owned and operated by a single entity and returned unopened to the developed state for refueling. We developed a decision model that allows for a comparison of floating and land-based alternatives considering key International Atomic Energy Agency plant-siting criteria. Abandoning onsite refueling is beneficial, and floating reactors built in a central facility can potentially reduce the risk of cost overruns and the consequences of accidents. However, if the floating platform must be built to military-grade specifications, then the cost would be much higher than a land-based system. The analysis tool presented is flexible, and can assist planners in determining the scope of risks and uncertainty associated with different deployment options. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

Planning Risk-Based SQC Schedules for Bracketed Operation of Continuous Production Analyzers.

Science.gov (United States)

Westgard, James O; Bayat, Hassan; Westgard, Sten A

2018-02-01

To minimize patient risk, "bracketed" statistical quality control (SQC) is recommended in the new CLSI guidelines for SQC (C24-Ed4). Bracketed SQC requires that a QC event both precedes and follows (brackets) a group of patient samples. In optimizing a QC schedule, the frequency of QC or run size becomes an important planning consideration to maintain quality and also facilitate responsive reporting of results from continuous operation of high production analytic systems. Different plans for optimizing a bracketed SQC schedule were investigated on the basis of Parvin's model for patient risk and CLSI C24-Ed4's recommendations for establishing QC schedules. A Sigma-metric run size nomogram was used to evaluate different QC schedules for processes of different sigma performance. For high Sigma performance, an effective SQC approach is to employ a multistage QC procedure utilizing a "startup" design at the beginning of production and a "monitor" design periodically throughout production. Example QC schedules are illustrated for applications with measurement procedures having 6-σ, 5-σ, and 4-σ performance. Continuous production analyzers that demonstrate high σ performance can be effectively controlled with multistage SQC designs that employ a startup QC event followed by periodic monitoring or bracketing QC events. Such designs can be optimized to minimize the risk of harm to patients. © 2017 American Association for Clinical Chemistry.

Hierarchic Analysis Method to Evaluate Rock Burst Risk

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ming Ji

2015-01-01

Full Text Available In order to reasonably evaluate the risk of rock bursts in mines, the factors impacting rock bursts and the existing grading criterion on the risk of rock bursts were studied. By building a model of hierarchic analysis method, the natural factors, technology factors, and management factors that influence rock bursts were analyzed and researched, which determined the degree of each factor’s influence (i.e., weight and comprehensive index. Then the grade of rock burst risk was assessed. The results showed that the assessment level generated by the model accurately reflected the actual risk degree of rock bursts in mines. The model improved the maneuverability and practicability of existing evaluation criteria and also enhanced the accuracy and science of rock burst risk assessment.

Realistic minimum accident source terms - Evaluation, application, and risk acceptance

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Angelo, P. L.

2009-01-01

The evaluation, application, and risk acceptance for realistic minimum accident source terms can represent a complex and arduous undertaking. This effort poses a very high impact to design, construction cost, operations and maintenance, and integrated safety over the expected facility lifetime. At the 2005 Nuclear Criticality Safety Division (NCSD) Meeting in Knoxville Tenn., two papers were presented mat summarized the Y-12 effort that reduced the number of criticality accident alarm system (CAAS) detectors originally designed for the new Highly Enriched Uranium Materials Facility (HEUMF) from 258 to an eventual as-built number of 60. Part of that effort relied on determining a realistic minimum accident source term specific to the facility. Since that time, the rationale for an alternate minimum accident has been strengthened by an evaluation process that incorporates realism. A recent update to the HEUMF CAAS technical basis highlights the concepts presented here. (authors)

Rating of intra-operative neuro-monitoring results in operative correction of the spinal deformities

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. A. Skripnikov

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Purpose of the work was filing the electrophysiological phenomena observed in the process of intra-operative neuromonitoring followed by development of the results’ scale of intra-operative neuro-physiological testing of the pyramidal tract. Materials and мethods. The selection for evaluation included data of 147 protocols of intra-operative neuromonitoring in 135 patients (53 males, 82 females, aged from 1 y. 5 m. to 52 years (14,1±0,7 years with spinal deformities of different etiology who underwent instrumentation spinal correction followed by fixation of thoracic / thoracolumbar spine segments using various variants of internal systems of trans-pedicular fixation. Intra-operative neuro-monitoring was performed using system «ISIS IOM» (Inomed Medizintechnik GmbH, Germany. The changes of motor evoked potentials were evaluated according to this scale. Results. Five types of pyramidal system reaction to operative invasion were revealed. According to neurophysiological criteria three grades of the risk of neurological disorders development during operative spinal deformity correction and, correspondingly, three levels of anxiety for the surgeon were defined. Conclusion. Intra-operative neurophysiological monitoring is the effective highly technological instrument to prevent neurological disorders in the spinal deformity. Offered rating scale of the risk of neurological complications gives the possibility to highlight three levels of anxiety during operative invasion.

Risk evaluation of medical and industrial radiation devices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jones, E.D.; Cunningham, R.E.; Rathbun, P.A.

1994-03-01

In 1991, the NRC, Division of Industrial and Medical Nuclear Safety, began a program to evaluate the use of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) in regulating medical devices. This program represents an initial step in an overall plant to evaluate the use of PRA in regulating the use of nuclear by-product materials. The NRC envisioned that the use of risk analysis techniques could assist staff in ensuring that the regulatory approach was standardized, understandable, and effective. Traditional methods of assessing risk in nuclear power plants may be inappropriate to use in assessing the use of by-product devices. The approaches used in assessing nuclear reactor risks are equipment-oriented. Secondary attention is paid to the human component, for the most part after critical system failure events have been identified. This paper describes the risk methodology developed by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), initially intended to assess risks associated with the use of the Gamma Knife, a gamma stereotactic radiosurgical device. For relatively new medical devices such as the Gamma Knife, the challenge is to perform a risk analysis with very little quantitative data but with an important human factor component. The method described below provides a basic approach for identifying the most likely risk contributors and evaluating their relative importance. The risk analysis approach developed for the Gamma Knife and described in this paper should be applicable to a broader class of devices in which the human interaction with the device is a prominent factor. In this sense, the method could be a prototypical model of nuclear medical or industrial device risk analysis

Evaluation of Seismic Risk of Siberia Territory

Science.gov (United States)

Seleznev, V. S.; Soloviev, V. M.; Emanov, A. F.

The outcomes of modern geophysical researches of the Geophysical Survey SB RAS, directed on study of geodynamic situation in large industrial and civil centers on the territory of Siberia with the purpose of an evaluation of seismic risk of territories and prediction of origin of extreme situations of natural and man-caused character, are pre- sented in the paper. First of all it concerns the testing and updating of a geoinformation system developed by Russian Emergency Ministry designed for calculations regarding the seismic hazard and response to distructive earthquakes. The GIS database contains the catalogues of earthquakes and faults, seismic zonation maps, vectorized city maps, information on industrial and housing fund, data on character of building and popula- tion in inhabited places etc. The geoinformation system allows to solve on a basis of probabilistic approaches the following problems: - estimating the earthquake impact, required forces, facilities and supplies for life-support of injured population; - deter- mining the consequences of failures on chemical and explosion-dangerous objects; - optimization problems on assurance technology of conduct of salvage operations. Using this computer program, the maps of earthquake risk have been constructed for several seismically dangerous regions of Siberia. These maps display the data on the probable amount of injured people and relative economic damage from an earthquake, which can occur in various sites of the territory according to the map of seismic zona- tion. The obtained maps have allowed determining places where the detailed seismo- logical observations should be arranged. Along with it on the territory of Siberia the wide-ranging investigations with use of new methods of evaluation of physical state of industrial and civil establishments (buildings and structures, hydroelectric power stations, bridges, dams, etc.), high-performance detailed electromagnetic researches of ground conditions of city

Instability risk analysis and risk assessment system establishment of underground storage caverns in bedded salt rock

Science.gov (United States)

Jing, Wenjun; Zhao, Yan

2018-02-01

Stability is an important part of geotechnical engineering research. The operating experiences of underground storage caverns in salt rock all around the world show that the stability of the caverns is the key problem of safe operation. Currently, the combination of theoretical analysis and numerical simulation are the mainly adopts method of reserve stability analysis. This paper introduces the concept of risk into the stability analysis of underground geotechnical structure, and studies the instability of underground storage cavern in salt rock from the perspective of risk analysis. Firstly, the definition and classification of cavern instability risk is proposed, and the damage mechanism is analyzed from the mechanical angle. Then the main stability evaluating indicators of cavern instability risk are proposed, and an evaluation method of cavern instability risk is put forward. Finally, the established cavern instability risk assessment system is applied to the analysis and prediction of cavern instability risk after 30 years of operation in a proposed storage cavern group in the Huai’an salt mine. This research can provide a useful theoretical base for the safe operation and management of underground storage caverns in salt rock.

Risk evaluation system for facility safeguards and security planning

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Udell, C.J.; Carlson, R.L.

1987-01-01

The Risk Evaluation System (RES) is an integrated approach to determining safeguards and security effectiveness and risk. RES combines the planning and technical analysis into a format that promotes an orderly development of protection strategies, planing assumptions, facility targets, vulnerability and risk determination, enhancement planning, and implementation. In addition, the RES computer database program enhances the capability of the analyst to perform a risk evaluation of the facility. The computer database is menu driven using data input screens and contains an algorithm for determining the probability of adversary defeat and risk. Also, base case and adjusted risk data records can be maintained and accessed easily

Risk evaluation system for facility safeguards and security planning

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Udell, C.J.; Carlson, R.L.

1987-01-01

The Risk Evaluation System (RES) is an integrated approach to determining safeguards and security effectiveness and risk. RES combines the planning and technical analysis into a format that promotes an orderly development of protection strategies, planning assumptions, facility targets, vulnerability and risk determination, enhancement planning, and implementation. In addition, the RES computer database program enhances the capability of the analyst to perform a risk evaluation of the facility. The computer database is menu driven using data input screens and contains an algorithm for determining the probability of adversary defeat and risk. Also, base case and adjusted risk data records can be maintained and accessed easily

Real-time risk assessment of operational events

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Perryman, L.J.; Foster, N.A.S.; Nicholls, D.R.; Grobbelaar, J.F.

1996-01-01

Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) has always been fundamental to the licensing process of Koeberg nuclear power station. Furthermore, over the past 8 years PRA has assisted in many areas of operation. One of these areas is the real-time assessment of abnormal operating events. Over the years, considerable experience has been gained in using PRA to improve plant safety and performance. This paper presents some of the insights obtained in using PRA in such a dynamic role and demonstrates that, by developing and using the plant-specific 'living' PRA, considerable safety and financial gains can be obtained. These insights specifically concern the prerequisites before optimal use of a plant-specific 'living' PRA can be made. Finally, examples are presented of occurrences when PRA was used to improve plant safety and performance. These examples serve to demonstrate the advantages that can be obtained if sufficient resources are placed at the disposal of the PRA team. (orig.)

Evaluating and predicting overall process risk using event logs

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Pika, A.; Van Der Aalst, W.M.P.; Wynn, M.T.; Fidge, C.J.; Ter Hofstede, A.H.M.

2016-01-01

Companies standardise and automate their business processes in order to improve process efficiency and minimise operational risks. However, it is difficult to eliminate all process risks during the process design stage due to the fact that processes often run in complex and changeable environments

U.S. Civil Air Show Crashes, 1993 to 2013: Burden, Fatal Risk Factors, and Evaluation of a Risk Index for Aviation Crashes.

Science.gov (United States)

Ballard, Sarah-Blythe; Osorio, Victor B

2015-01-01

This study provides new public health data about U.S. civil air shows. Risk factors for fatalities in civil air show crashes were analyzed. The value of the FIA score in predicting fatal outcomes was evaluated. With the use of the FAA's General Aviation and Air Taxi Survey and the National Transportation Safety Board's data, the incidence of civil air show crashes from 1993 to 2013 was calculated. Fatality risk factors for crashes were analyzed by means of regression methods. The FIA index was validated to predict fatal outcomes by using the factors of fire, instrument conditions, and away-from-airport location, and was evaluated through receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. The civil air show crash rate was 31 crashes per 1,000 civil air events. Of the 174 civil air show crashes that occurred during the study period, 91 (52%) involved at least one fatality; on average, 1.1 people died per fatal crash. Fatalities were associated with four major risk factors: fire [adjusted odds ratio (AOR) = 7.1, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 2.4 to 20.6, P Civil air show crashes were marked by a high risk of fatal outcomes to pilots in aerobatic performances but rare mass casualties. The FIA score was not a valid measurement of fatal risk in civil air show crashes.

Methodology for Risk Analysis of Dam Gates and Associated Operating Equipment Using Fault Tree Analysis

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Patev, Robert C; Putcha, Chandra; Foltz, Stuart D

2005-01-01

.... This report summarizes research on methodologies to assist in quantifying risks related to dam gates and associated operating equipment, and how those risks relate to overall spillway failure risk...

Credit Risk Evaluation of Power Market Players with Random Forest

Science.gov (United States)

Umezawa, Yasushi; Mori, Hiroyuki

A new method is proposed for credit risk evaluation in a power market. The credit risk evaluation is to measure the bankruptcy risk of the company. The power system liberalization results in new environment that puts emphasis on the profit maximization and the risk minimization. There is a high probability that the electricity transaction causes a risk between companies. So, power market players are concerned with the risk minimization. As a management strategy, a risk index is requested to evaluate the worth of the business partner. This paper proposes a new method for evaluating the credit risk with Random Forest (RF) that makes ensemble learning for the decision tree. RF is one of efficient data mining technique in clustering data and extracting relationship between input and output data. In addition, the method of generating pseudo-measurements is proposed to improve the performance of RF. The proposed method is successfully applied to real financial data of energy utilities in the power market. A comparison is made between the proposed and the conventional methods.

Incidence, risk factors, and morphology in operating microscope light retinopathy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Khwarg, S.G.; Linstone, F.A.; Daniels, S.A.; Isenberg, S.J.; Hanscom, T.A.; Geoghegan, M.; Straatsma, B.R.

1987-01-01

A review of 135 consecutive cataract operations identified ten cases (7.4%) of operating microscope light retinopathy. Ophthalmoscopically, these light retinopathy lesions appeared as a focal pigment epithelial change with varying degrees of pigment clumping in the center. Fluorescein angiography accentuated the lesion by demonstrating a sharply demarcated transmission defect, occasionally with multiple satellite lesions. The shape of the lesion matched the shape of the illuminating source of the particular operating microscope used during the surgery. The most significant risk factor associated with the production of these light retinopathy lesions was prolonged operating time. Mean total operating time for the ten patients with light retinopathy was 51 minutes longer than for those without (P less than .0001). Other significant associated factors were the presence of diabetes mellitus (P less than .03), younger age (P less than .05), and the use of hydrochlorothiazide (P less than .04)

Operation safety of complex industrial systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zwingelstein, G.

1999-01-01

Zero fault or zero risk is an unreachable goal in industrial activities like nuclear activities. However, methods and techniques exist to reduce the risks to the lowest possible and acceptable level. The operation safety consists in the recognition, evaluation, prediction, measurement and mastery of technological and human faults. This paper analyses each of these points successively: 1 - evolution of operation safety; 2 - definitions and basic concepts: failure, missions and functions of a system and of its components, basic concepts and operation safety; 3 - forecasting analysis of operation safety: reliability data, data-banks, precautions for the use of experience feedback data; realization of an operation safety study: management of operation safety, quality assurance, critical review and audit of operation safety studies; 6 - conclusions. (J.S.)

Association between elevated pre-operative glycosylated hemoglobin and post-operative infections after non-emergent surgery.

Science.gov (United States)

Blankush, Joseph M; Leitman, I Michael; Soleiman, Aron; Tran, Trung

2016-09-01

A chronic state of impaired glucose metabolism affects multiple components of the immune system, possibly leading to an increased incidence of post-operative infections. Such infections increase morbidity, length of stay, and overall cost. This study evaluates the correlation between elevated pre-operative glycosylated hemoglobin (HbA1c) and post-operative infections. Adult patients undergoing non-emergent procedures across all surgical subspecialties from January 2010 to July 2014 had a preoperative HbA1c measured as part of their routine pre-surgical assessment. 2200 patient charts (1100 operative infection (superficial surgical site infection, deep wound/surgical space abscess, pneumonia, and/or urinary tract infection as defined by Centers for Disease Control criteria) within 30 days of surgery. Patients with HbA1c infection rate (3.8% in the HbA1c infection. Elevated HbA1c was, however, predictive of significantly increased risk of post-operative infection when associated with increased age (≥81 years of age) or dirty wounds. The risk factors of post-operative infection are multiple and likely synergistic. While pre-operative HbA1c level is not independently associated with risk of post-operative infection, there are scenarios and patient subgroups where pre-operative HbA1c is useful in predicting an increased risk of infectious complications in the post-operative period.

Risk factors for deep surgical site infection following operative treatment of ankle fractures.

Science.gov (United States)

Ovaska, Mikko T; Mäkinen, Tatu J; Madanat, Rami; Huotari, Kaisa; Vahlberg, Tero; Hirvensalo, Eero; Lindahl, Jan

2013-02-20

Surgical site infection is one of the most common complications following ankle fracture surgery. These infections are associated with substantial morbidity and lead to increased resource utilization. Identification of risk factors is crucial for developing strategies to prevent these complications. We performed an age and sex-matched case-control study to identify patient and surgery-related risk factors for deep surgical site infection following operative ankle fracture treatment. We identified 1923 ankle fracture operations performed in 1915 patients from 2006 through 2009. A total of 131 patients with deep infection were identified and compared with an equal number of uninfected control patients. Risk factors for infection were determined with use of conditional logistic regression analysis. The incidence of deep infection was 6.8%. Univariate analysis showed diabetes (odds ratio [OR] = 2.2, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.0, 4.9), alcohol abuse (OR = 3.8, 95% CI = 1.6, 9.4), fracture-dislocation (OR = 2.0, 95% CI = 1.2, 3.5), and soft-tissue injury (a Tscherne grade of ≥1) (OR = 2.6, 95% CI = 1.3, 5.3) to be significant patient-related risk factors for infection. Surgery-related risk factors were suboptimal timing of prophylactic antibiotics (OR = 1.9, 95% CI = 1.0, 3.4), difficulties encountered during surgery, (OR = 2.1, 95% CI = 1.1, 4.0), wound complications (OR = 4.8, 95% CI = 1.6, 14.0), and fracture malreduction (OR = 3.4, 95% CI = 1.3, 9.2). Independent risk factors for infection identified by multivariable analyses were tobacco use (OR = 3.7, 95% CI = 1.6, 8.5) and a duration of surgery of more than ninety minutes (OR = 2.5, 95% CI = 1.1, 5.7). Cast application in the operating room was independently associated with a decreased infection rate (OR = 0.4, 95% CI = 0.2, 0.8). We identified several modifiable risk factors for deep surgical site infection following operative treatment of ankle fractures.

KNOWLEDGE AND LEARNING IN TERMS OF OPERATIONAL RISK MANAGEMENT IN THE FINANCIAL AND BANKING SYSTEMS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Radoica Luburic

2016-09-01

Full Text Available This paper is a part of the author`s wider research that examines the impact of operational risks on the functioning of financial organisations, with particular reference to central banks. The research clearly demonstrates the importance of the human factor in the timely identification and efficient management of operational risks. People are the basic strength of organisations; they are the source of innovation, as well as of good relations with customers and other interested parties. The paper highlights the illusion that people can be successful in improving products or providing better services without improving themselves as well. Any assessment of the impact of the human factor on the appearance, identification, and efficient management of operational risks is a very complex process. This has to be an ongoing process that develops through the development of the organisation, staff competences and motivation, as well as organisational culture. In particular, emphasis must be placed on the importance of learning and knowledge in both the recognition and the efficient management of operational risks. The paper identifies education as the foundation of knowledge and knowledge as the foundation of the long-term development of organisations. They grow in significance when employing a process approach to risk management, especially the connected roles of ?process owners? and ?risk owners? in effective process and risk management. It is also clearly shown that any defence against risk, is as strong as its weakest link, and the weakest link in the chain of defence is an untrained, demotivated or dissatisfied employee or team, who are unable to recognize risk on time.

Net Reclassification Indices for Evaluating Risk-Prediction Instruments: A Critical Review

Science.gov (United States)

Kerr, Kathleen F.; Wang, Zheyu; Janes, Holly; McClelland, Robyn L.; Psaty, Bruce M.; Pepe, Margaret S.

2014-01-01

Net reclassification indices have recently become popular statistics for measuring the prediction increment of new biomarkers. We review the various types of net reclassification indices and their correct interpretations. We evaluate the advantages and disadvantages of quantifying the prediction increment with these indices. For pre-defined risk categories, we relate net reclassification indices to existing measures of the prediction increment. We also consider statistical methodology for constructing confidence intervals for net reclassification indices and evaluate the merits of hypothesis testing based on such indices. We recommend that investigators using net reclassification indices should report them separately for events (cases) and nonevents (controls). When there are two risk categories, the components of net reclassification indices are the same as the changes in the true-positive and false-positive rates. We advocate use of true- and false-positive rates and suggest it is more useful for investigators to retain the existing, descriptive terms. When there are three or more risk categories, we recommend against net reclassification indices because they do not adequately account for clinically important differences in shifts among risk categories. The category-free net reclassification index is a new descriptive device designed to avoid pre-defined risk categories. However, it suffers from many of the same problems as other measures such as the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. In addition, the category-free index can mislead investigators by overstating the incremental value of a biomarker, even in independent validation data. When investigators want to test a null hypothesis of no prediction increment, the well-established tests for coefficients in the regression model are superior to the net reclassification index. If investigators want to use net reclassification indices, confidence intervals should be calculated using bootstrap

The use of living PSA for on-line risk management by plant operators

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Moir, Gordon R.

2004-01-01

The concept of Living Probabilistic Safety Assessment (LPSA) has existed for several years and reflects the desire to utilise the knowledge gained in producing PSAs for nuclear power plants. In most countries the regulator requires that PSA are performed on all new nuclear power plants in order to demonstrate that the design and operation of the plant will meet the required safety standards. In the past, having satisfied the regulator, these PSAs were then regarded as having served their purpose and 'put on the shelf'. In the course of time all plants undergo modification, operational procedures change and develop, and plant specific reliability data becomes available throughout the lifetime of the plant. The original plant specific PSA will therefore rapidly become outdated and need revision. The concept of LPSA is therefore to provide a vehicle for evaluating the effect of plant changes throughout the plant's lifetime. Within the framework of LPSA 'living' can mean anything from updating the PSA infrequently, e.g. as and when major design changes are implemented, to updating the PSA in real time as plant is made unavailable due to maintenance or failure. Constructing and analysing plant specific PSA takes man years of effort in analysing all safety related systems. The result is a very detailed model of the interactions between systems and how they can fail. In order to gain the maximum benefit from this extensive and detailed knowledge base. Nuclear Electric has been involved in the development of PSA codes which enable rapid assessment of PSA. The development of such a code, the Essential Systems Status Monitor (ESSM), has allowed interactive use of the PSA and has maximised the benefit of the knowledge held in the PSA to plan and manage low risk maintenance strategies. The paper describes how the emphasis in the development of the ESSM has been to provide the operator with an interactive LPSA facility to maximise the use and benefits of the original PSA model

Artificial Systems and Models for Risk Covering Operations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Laurenţiu Mihai Treapăt

2017-04-01

Full Text Available Mainly, this paper focuses on the roles of artificial intelligence based systems and especially on risk-covering operations. In this context, the paper comes with theoretical explanations on real-life based examples and applications. From a general perspective, the paper enriches its value with a wide discussion on the related subject. The paper aims to revise the volatilities’ estimation models and the correlations between the various time series and also by presenting the Risk Metrics methodology, as explained is a case study. The advantages that the VaR estimation offers, consist of its ability to quantitatively and numerically express the risk level of a portfolio, at a certain moment in time and also the risk of on open position (in titles, in FX, commodities or granted loans, belonging to an economic agent or even individual; hence, its role in a more efficient capital allocation, in the assumed risk delimitation, and also as a performance measurement instrument. In this paper and the study case that completes our work, we aim to prove how we can prevent considerable losses and even bankruptcies if VaR is known and applied accordingly. For this reason, the universities inRomaniashould include or increase their curricula with the study of the VaR model as an artificial intelligence tool. The simplicity of the presented case study, most probably, is the strongest argument of the current work because it can be understood also by the readers that are not necessarily very experienced in the risk management field.

Designing and evaluating risk-based surveillance systems

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Willeberg, Preben; Nielsen, Liza Rosenbaum; Salman, Mo

2012-01-01

Risk-based surveillance systems reveal occurrence of disease or infection in a sample of population units, which are selected on the basis of risk factors for the condition under study. The purpose of such systems for supporting practical animal disease policy formulations and management decisions...... with prudent use of resources while maintaining acceptable system performance. High-risk category units are selected for testing by identification of the presence of specific high-risk factor(s), while disregarding other factors that might also influence the risk. On this basis we argue that the most...... applicable risk estimate for use in designing and evaluating a risk-based surveillance system would be a crude (unadjusted) relative risk, odds ratio or apparent prevalence. Risk estimates found in the published literature, however, are often the results of multivariable analyses implicitly adjusting...

Method for evaluating operator inputs to digital controllers

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Venhuizen, J.R.

1983-01-01

Most industrial processes employ operator-interactive control systems. The performance of these control systems is influenced by the choice of control station (device through which operator enters control commands). While the importance of proper control-station selection is widely accepted, standard and simple selection methods are not available for the control station using color-graphics terminals. This paper describes a unique facility for evaluating the effectiveness of various control stations. In the facility, a process is simulated on a hybrid computer, color-graphics display terminals provide information to the operator, and different control stations accept input commands to control the simulation. Tests are being conducted to evaluate a keyboard, a graphics tablet, and a CRT touch panel for use as control stations on a nuclear power plant. Preliminary results indicate that our facility can be used to determine those situations where each type of station is advantageous

Lessons drawn from the operation of EDF 900MW nuclear power plants to evaluate and improve safety

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brisbois, J.; Dupuis, M.C.; Marcille, R.

1986-06-01

The lessons drawn from operation are used to detect the weak points not taken sufficiently into account by the design studies and to check that system availability remains at least equal to the level defined at the design stage. In both cases, they aim at deciding what remedial actions are to be taken. The latter may result in additional obligations (modification or addition of equipment or operating rules) and, in certain cases, may slacken obligations. This paper examines in turn: how are the events recorded and then analyzed, what lessons are drawn using concrete examples, what contribution is made by probabilistic risk studies using experience feedback in evaluating overall safety [fr

Evaluation of the risk of liver damage from the use of 5-aminolevulinic acid for intra-operative identification and resection in patients with malignant gliomas

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Offersen, Cecilie Mørck; Skjoeth-Rasmussen, Jane

2017-01-01

BACKGROUND: The clinical efficacy of 5-aminolevulinic acid (5-ALA) for fluorescence-guided surgery of malignant gliomas is evident from several studies; however, as post-operative elevations of liver enzymes have been seen, there is a potential risk of liver damage upon administration. The aim...... (September 2012-September 2014) at the University Hospital of Copenhagen, Rigshospitalet, was conducted. All patients received a pre-operative dose of 20 mg/kg bodyweight 5-ALA. The pre- and post-operative enzyme levels of alanine aminotransferase, aspartate aminotransferase, gamma glutamyltransferase...

Risk identification and evaluation of customer collaboration in product development

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xuefeng Zhang

2015-05-01

Full Text Available Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to identify risk factors that caused by customer collaboration in new product development systematically, and propose an approach to judge which risk factors are critical and catch substantial attention. Design/methodology/approach: This study identifies risk factors according to the results of case studies of enterprises in china. On this basis, an improved rough number approach is put forward to evaluate the importance of risk factors. Findings: Firstly, classify risk factors into three aspects. Then, present a risk factor set, which include thirty-seven risk factors. At last, determine which risk factors are critical by using an improved rough number approach. Originality/value: Considering there are few researches studying comprehensive risk factors of customer collaboration and assessing them, this paper explores a risk factor set of customer collaboration in product development stage, and proposes a novel approach, which can help to solve the problem of subjective, vague and lack of prior information of evaluation, to evaluate risk factors.

A longitudinal study of the incidence of pressure sores and the associated risks and strategies adopted in Italian operating theatres.

Science.gov (United States)

Bulfone, Giampiera; Marzoli, Ilaria; Quattrin, Rosanna; Fabbro, Carmen; Palese, Alvisa

2012-02-01

To explore the incidence of intraoperative pressure sores, the associated risk factors and the preventive strategies adopted by nurses, we adopted a longitudinal study in a 900-bed teaching hospital with multiple operating theatres, located in the North of Italy. Patients who underwent major surgery were evaluated four times: at the moment of operating theatre admission, at operating theatre discharge, and on their third and sixth postoperative day. Of the patients included (n = 102) who had an average age of 62.3 years (range 20-87), 12.7% (13/102) developed a pressure ulcer in the operating theatre; 46.1% (6/13) of these ulcers were still present on the third postoperative day. Some health conditions (diabetes mellitus, cardiac diseases) and intra-operative factors (lying on the operating table for more than 6.15 hours, intraoperative hypothermia) are associated with the occurrence of pressure sores.

Quality assurance and the sub-contract interface: co-operative evaluation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Churchill, G.F.; Rippon, D.J.

1977-01-01

The CEGB standard QA 42-1 quality assurance programme requires purchasers to establish supplier selection and assessment procedures either by previous continuous record of supplying identical or equivalent material satisfactorily, or by an evaluation of the sub-contractors quality system. In order to avoid the multiple evaluations that the latter would involve for projects such as nuclear power stations, which concern a hierarchy of organisations, the idea of co-operative evaluations was suggested. The requirements involved in establishing co-operative evaluations are discussed. Some potential difficulties which have been identified from experience are described. (U.K.)

Planning of operation & maintenance using risk and reliability based methods

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Florian, Mihai; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

2015-01-01

Operation and maintenance (OM) of offshore wind turbines contributes with a substantial part of the total levelized cost of energy (LCOE). The objective of this paper is to present an application of risk- and reliability-based methods for planning of OM. The theoretical basis is presented...

Computed Tomography Angiography Evaluation of Risk Factors for Unstable Intracranial Aneurysms.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Guang-Xian; Gong, Ming-Fu; Wen, Li; Liu, Lan-Lan; Yin, Jin-Bo; Duan, Chun-Mei; Zhang, Dong

2018-03-19

To evaluate risk factors for instability in intracranial aneurysms (IAs) using computed tomography angiography (CTA). A total of 614 consecutive patients diagnosed with 661 IAs between August 2011 and February 2016 were reviewed. Patients and IAs were divided into stable and unstable groups. Along with clinical characteristics, IA characteristics were evaluated by CTA. Multiple logistic regression analysis was used to identify the independent risk factors associated with unstable IAs. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was performed on the final model, and optimal thresholds were obtained. Patient age (odds ratio [OR], 0.946), cerebral atherosclerosis (CA; OR, 0.525), and IAs located at the middle cerebral artery (OR, 0.473) or internal carotid artery (OR, 0.512) were negatively correlated with instability, whereas IAs with irregular shape (OR, 2.157), deep depth (OR, 1.557), or large flow angle (FA; OR, 1.015) were more likely to be unstable. ROC analysis revealed threshold values of age, depth, and FA of 59.5 years, 4.25 mm, and 87.8°, respectively. The stability of IAs is significantly affected by several factors, including patient age and the presence of CA. IA shape and location also have an impact on the stability of IAs. Growth into an irregular shape, with a deep depth, and a large FA are risk factors for a change in IAs from stable to unstable. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Criticality Risk Management: Why Analysis of Operating Practices Matters

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Menuet, L.; Tasset, D.; Hebraud, C.

2016-01-01

The criticality risk is an unwanted neutron chain reaction that could lead, if not under control, to a criticality accident resulting in a high release of energy accompanied by an intense emission of neutron and gamma radiation. Thus, the management of criticality risk in Fuel Cycle Facilities relies mainly on a set of prescriptions and requirements established by the licencees for achieving safety objectives. This paper intends to show that, beyond prescriptions and requirements, a socio-technical approach is essential to define a relevant set of criticality safety rules favouring efficient and safe human activities. Indeed, a thorough knowledge of staff operating practices, beyond contributing significantly to the definition of appropriate technical and organizational provisions, enhances safety management combining “rule-based safety” and “managed safety”. Rule-based safety (top down definition of the rules) can be achieved by anticipating undesirable situations and defining provisions to avoid and manage them in daily practices. On the other hand, managed safety (integration of local characteristics) develops the sociotechnical system capacity to anticipate, recognise and formulate appropriate responses to unexpected scenarios that were not foreseen by the organization, or to rules that are not applicable to the operational realities. Thus, an effective safety management relies on human expertise, on the skills of individuals, on the quality of initiatives, and on the way teams and organizations perform the operations on a daily basis, interact and coordinate to integrate and regulate both ruled-based safety and managed safety.

Evaluation of potential severe accidents during low power and shutdown operations at Grand Gulf, Unit 1: Evaluation of severe accident risks for plant operational state 5 during a refueling outage. Supporting MELCOR calculations, Volume 6, Part 2

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kmetyk, L.N.; Brown, T.D.

1995-03-01

To gain a better understanding of the risk significance of low power and shutdown modes of operation, the Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research at the NRC established programs to investigate the likelihood and severity of postulated accidents that could occur during low power and shutdown (LP ampersand S) modes of operation at commercial nuclear power plants. To investigate the likelihood of severe core damage accidents during off power conditions, probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) were performed for two nuclear plants: Unit 1 of the Grand Gulf Nuclear Station, which is a BWR-6 Mark III boiling water reactor (BWR), and Unit 1 of the Surry Power Station, which is a three-loop, subatmospheric, pressurized water reactor (PWR). The analysis of the BWR was conducted at Sandia National Laboratories while the analysis of the PWR was performed at Brookhaven National Laboratory. This multi-volume report presents and discusses the results of the BWR analysis. The subject of this part presents the deterministic code calculations, performed with the MELCOR code, that were used to support the development and quantification of the PRA models. The background for the work documented in this report is summarized, including how deterministic codes are used in PRAS, why the MELCOR code is used, what the capabilities and features of MELCOR are, and how the code has been used by others in the past. Brief descriptions of the Grand Gulf plant and its configuration during LP ampersand S operation and of the MELCOR input model developed for the Grand Gulf plant in its LP ampersand S configuration are given

Evaluation of potential severe accidents during low power and shutdown operations at Grand Gulf, Unit 1: Evaluation of severe accident risks for plant operational state 5 during a refueling outage. Supporting MELCOR calculations, Volume 6, Part 2

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kmetyk, L.N.; Brown, T.D. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States)

1995-03-01

To gain a better understanding of the risk significance of low power and shutdown modes of operation, the Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research at the NRC established programs to investigate the likelihood and severity of postulated accidents that could occur during low power and shutdown (LP&S) modes of operation at commercial nuclear power plants. To investigate the likelihood of severe core damage accidents during off power conditions, probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) were performed for two nuclear plants: Unit 1 of the Grand Gulf Nuclear Station, which is a BWR-6 Mark III boiling water reactor (BWR), and Unit 1 of the Surry Power Station, which is a three-loop, subatmospheric, pressurized water reactor (PWR). The analysis of the BWR was conducted at Sandia National Laboratories while the analysis of the PWR was performed at Brookhaven National Laboratory. This multi-volume report presents and discusses the results of the BWR analysis. The subject of this part presents the deterministic code calculations, performed with the MELCOR code, that were used to support the development and quantification of the PRA models. The background for the work documented in this report is summarized, including how deterministic codes are used in PRAS, why the MELCOR code is used, what the capabilities and features of MELCOR are, and how the code has been used by others in the past. Brief descriptions of the Grand Gulf plant and its configuration during LP&S operation and of the MELCOR input model developed for the Grand Gulf plant in its LP&S configuration are given.

Reliability and risk-based planning of operation and maintenance of offshore wind turbines

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Florian, Mihai; Berzonskis, Arvydas

2016-01-01

costly (and safe), and it is important to include in the reliability assessment the information obtained during operation (from condition monitoring and inspections) and the maintenance performed (incl. repairs and replacements). The paper presents a risk-based approach for optimal planning of Operation...

Digitized operator evaluation system for main control room of nuclear power plant

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chen Yu; Yan Shengyuan; Chen Wenlong

2014-01-01

In order to evaluate the human-machine system matching relation of main control room in nuclear power plant accurately and efficiently, the expression and parameters of operator human body model were analyzed, and the evaluation required function of digital operator was determined. Based on the secondary development technology, the digital operator evaluation body model was developed. It could choose generation, gender, operation posture, single/eyes horizon, and left/right hand up to the domain according to the needs of specific evaluation, it was used to evaluate whether display information can be visible and equipment can be touch, and it also has key evaluation functions such as workspace and character visibility at the same time. The examples show that this method can complete the evaluation work of human-machine matching relation for main control room of nuclear power plant accurately, efficiently and quickly, and achieve the most optimal human-machine coordination relationship. (authors)

Risk-benefit evaluation for large technological systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Okrent, D.

1979-01-01

The related topics of risk-benefit analysis, risk analysis, and risk-acceptance criteria (How safe is safe enough) are of growing importance. An interdisciplinary study on various aspects of these topics, including applications to nuclear power, was recently completed at the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA), with the support of the National Science Foundation. In addition to more than 30 topical reports and various open-literature publications, a final report (UCLA-ENG-7777) to the study, titled ''A Generalized Evaluation Approach to Risk--Benefit for Large Technological Systems and Its Application to Nuclear Power'', was issued in early 1978. This article briefly summarizes portions of the final report dealing with general aspects of risk-benefit methodology, societal knowledge and perception of risk, and risk-acceptance criteria

An operative dengue risk stratification system in Argentina based on geospatial technology

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ximena Porcasi

2012-09-01

Full Text Available Based on an agreement between the Ministry of Health and the National Space Activities Commission in Argentina, an integrated informatics platform for dengue risk using geospatial technology for the surveillance and prediction of risk areas for dengue fever has been designed. The task was focused on developing stratification based on environmental (historical and current, viral, social and entomological situation for >3,000 cities as part of a system. The platform, developed with open-source software with pattern design, following the European Space Agency standards for space informatics, delivers two products: a national risk map consisting of point vectors for each city/town/locality and an approximate 50 m resolution urban risk map modelling the risk inside selected high-risk cities. The operative system, architecture and tools used in the development are described, including a detailed list of end users’ requirements. Additionally, an algorithm based on bibliography and landscape epidemiology concepts is presented and discussed. The system, in operation since September 2011, is capable of continuously improving the algorithms producing improved risk stratifications without a complete set of inputs. The platform was specifically developed for surveillance of dengue fever as this disease has reemerged in Argentina but the aim is to widen the scope to include also other relevant vector-borne diseases such as chagas, malaria and leishmaniasis as well as other countries belonging to south region of Latin America.

Development of safety function assessment trees for pressurized heavy water reactor LP/SD operations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yang, Hui Chang; Chung, Chang Hyun; Kim, Ki Yong; Jee, Moon Hak; Sung, Chang Kyoung

2003-01-01

The objective of Configuration Risk Management Program(CRMP) is to maintain the safety level by assuring the defense-in-depth of nuclear power plant while the configurations are changed during plant operations, especially for the LP/SD. Such a safety purpose can be achieved by establishing the risk monitoring programs with both quantitative and qualitative features. Generally, the quantitative risk evaluation models, i.e., PRA models are used for the risk evaluation during full power operation, and the qualitative risk evaluation models such as safety function assessment trees are used. Through this study, safety function assessment trees were developed

Development of Logistics for Building Radiation Storm Shelters and Their Operational Evaluation

Science.gov (United States)

Cerro, Jeffrey A.

2015-01-01

Over the past three years NASA has been studying the operational effectiveness and astronaut protection efficacy of numerous radiation protection shelters for use in space exploration activities outside of earth's magnetosphere. The work presented was part of NASA's Advanced Exploration Systems (AES) RadWorks Storm Shelter project. This paper is a summary of the concept development activities of this third year. Fabricated items were integrated into mock up deep space habitat vehicle sections for operational evaluations. Two full scale human-in-loop simulations were designed, fabricated, and implemented through an Institutional Review Board approved solicited participant assessment process. Fabricated items are described, along with usage scenarios of two protection approaches. Existing ISS type logistics along with proposed variations of those logistics were used. Preliminary Discrete Event Simulation (DES) work is noted to be useful in quantifying and documenting operational performance measures for the two primary shelter methods, including some characterization of radiation dose accumulation over a mission timeline. The project also performed correlation analyses between effective radiation dose and the Risk of Exposure Induced Death (REID) to show that concept level work may be able to include such a performance metric in early stages of mission scenario habitat design trade space investigation.

Evaluation of allowed outage times (AOTS) from a risk and reliability standpoint

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vesely, W.E.

1989-08-01

This report describes the basic risks associated with allowed outage times (AOTS), defines strategies for selecting the risks to be quantified, and describes how the risks can be quantified. This report provides a basis for risk-based approaches for regulatory and plant implementation. The AOT risk evaluations can be applied to proposed one-time AOT changes, or to permanent changes. The evaluations can also be used to quantify risks associated with present AOTs, and in establishing AOTs from a risk perspective. The report shows that the standard way of calculating AOT risks in probabilistic risk analyses (PRAs) generally is not sufficient when evaluating all the risks associated with an AOT in order to assess its acceptability. The PRA calculates an average AOT risk which includes the frequency at which the AOT is expected to occur. Other risks associated with an AOT include the single downtime risk, which is the risk incurred when (given) the AOT has occurred. The single downtime risk is generally the most applicable risk in determining the acceptability of the AOT. The single downtime risks are generally much larger than the PRA-averaged risk. For more comprehensive evaluations, both risks should be calculated. The report also describes other risks which can be considered, including personnel and economic risks. Finally, the report discusses the detailed evaluations which are involved in calculating AOT risks, including considerations of uncertainty. (author)

Screening and prioritisation of chemical risks from metal mining operations, identifying exposure media of concern.

Science.gov (United States)

Pan, Jilang; Oates, Christopher J; Ihlenfeld, Christian; Plant, Jane A; Voulvoulis, Nikolaos

2010-04-01

Metals have been central to the development of human civilisation from the Bronze Age to modern times, although in the past, metal mining and smelting have been the cause of serious environmental pollution with the potential to harm human health. Despite problems from artisanal mining in some developing countries, modern mining to Western standards now uses the best available mining technology combined with environmental monitoring, mitigation and remediation measures to limit emissions to the environment. This paper develops risk screening and prioritisation methods previously used for contaminated land on military and civilian sites and engineering systems for the analysis and prioritisation of chemical risks from modern metal mining operations. It uses hierarchical holographic modelling and multi-criteria decision making to analyse and prioritise the risks from potentially hazardous inorganic chemical substances released by mining operations. A case study of an active platinum group metals mine in South Africa is used to demonstrate the potential of the method. This risk-based methodology for identifying, filtering and ranking mining-related environmental and human health risks can be used to identify exposure media of greatest concern to inform risk management. It also provides a practical decision-making tool for mine acquisition and helps to communicate risk to all members of mining operation teams.

The integrated approach methodology for operator information evaluation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stroube, K.; Modarres, M.; Roush, M.; Hunt, N.; Pearce, R.

1986-01-01

The Integrated Approach has developed a complete method for evaluating the relative importance of operation information improvements. By use of decision trees the impact of information on success probability of a function or system can be evaluated. This approach couples goal trees and human success likelihoods to estimate anticipated consequences of a given information system

Operational safety evaluation for minor reactor accidents

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang, O.S.

1981-01-01

The purpose of this paper is to address a concern of applying conservatism in analysing minor reactor incidents. A so-called ''conservative'' safety analysis may exaggerate the system responses and result in a reactor scram tripped by the reactor protective system (RPS). In reality, a minor incident may lead the reactor to a new thermal hydraulic steady-state without scram, and the mitigation or termination of the incident may entirely depend on operator actions. An example on a small steamline break evaluation for a pressurized water reactor recently investigated by the staff at the Washington Public Power Supply System is presented to illustrate this point. A safety evaluation using mainly the safety-related systems to be consistent with the conservative assumptions used in the Safety Analysis Report was conducted. For comparison, a realistic analysis was also performed using both the safety- and control-related systems. The analyses were performed using the RETRAN plant simulation computer code. The ''conservative'' safety analysis predicts that the incident can be turned over by the RPS scram trips without operator intervention. However, the realistic analysis concludes that the reactor will reach a new steady-state at a different plant thermal hydraulic condition. As a result, the termination of the incident at this stage depends entirely on proper operator action. On the basis of this investigation it is concluded that, for minor incidents, ''conservative'' assumptions are not necessary, sometimes not justifiable. A realistic investigation from the operational safety point of view is more appropriate. It is essential to highlight the key transient indications for specific incident recognition in the operator training program

Development of an operations evaluation system for sinking EDM

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Lauwers, B.; Oosterling, J.A.J.; Vanderauwera, W.

2010-01-01

This paper describes the development and validation of an operations evaluation system for sinking EDM operations. Based on a given workpiece geometry (e.g. mould), regions to be EDM'ed are automatically indentified. For a given electrode configuration, consisting of one or more regions, EDM