WorldWideScience

Sample records for operative risk evaluation

  1. Operation and evaluation of online risk communication assistant tool, 'ORCAT'

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kimura, Hiroshi; Katsumura, Soichiro; Furuta, Kazuo; Matsumura, Kenichi; Tanaka, Hiroshi

    2005-01-01

    Risk communication about the high-level radioactive waste (HLW) disposal is necessary for public acceptance of HLW disposal program. Online Risk Communication Assistant Tool (ORCAT) system is developed in order to support risk communication for high-level radioactive disposal on World Wide Web. We have carried out two test operations of ORCAT system. First test operation is carried out from Jun. 26 to Feb. 13, 2003. After the first operation, we improved the ORCAT system, and carried out the second test operation from Dec. 4 to 22, 2004. In the second test operation, 20 participants replayed the questionnaire about usability of ORCAT system. In consequence, we found that the ORCAT system remains what need to refine, but is evaluated useful to the risk communication about the HLW disposal. (author)

  2. Risk evaluation system for operational events and inspection findings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lopez G, A.; Godinez S, V.; Lopez M, R.

    2010-10-01

    The Mexican Nuclear Regulatory Commission has developed an adaptation of the US NRC Significance Determination Process (SDP) to evaluate the risk significance of operational events and inspection findings in Laguna Verde nuclear power plant. The Mexican Nuclear Regulatory Commission developed a plant specific flow chart for preliminary screening instead of the open questionnaire used by the US NRC-SDP, with the aim to improve the accuracy of the screening process. Also, the work sheets and support information tables required by the SDP were built up in an Excel application which allows to perform the risk evaluation in an automatic way, focusing the regulator staff efforts in the risk significance analysis instead of the risk calculation tasks. In order to construct this tool a simplified PRA model was developed and validated with the individual plant examination model. This paper shows the Mexican Nuclear Regulatory Commission process and some risk events evaluations performed using the Risk Evaluation System for Operational Events and Inspection Findings (SERHE, by its acronyms in Spanish). (Author)

  3. Evaluation of risk management status for Croatian logistic operators

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Diana BOŽIĆ

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Understanding organisational risks makes possible to control them and to change them into organisational strengths. Being known as “measure of uncertainty” in the business process, the risk is the uncertainty of achieving the organizational objectives. It may involve positive or negative consequences. There is a level of uncertainty in every supply chain while operating transportation and warehousing, positioning on the market, developing customer support, reducing cycle times or cutting costs. Therefore, the risk assessment should be one of the main tasks for any supply chain management team. It is required to develop formal risk assessment procedures, to identify the potential impacts to the supply chain operations and to develop a set of contingency plans to mitigate risks. This paper deals with supply chain risk assessment methodology, outlining the present risk management status of Croatian logistic operators.

  4. The third experiment of operation and evaluation of online risk communication assistant tool, 'ORCAT'

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Katsumura, Soichiro; Kimura, Hiroshi; Furuta, Kazuo; Tanaka, Hiroshi

    2006-01-01

    Risk communication about the high-level radioactive waste (HLW) disposal is necessary for public acceptance of HLW disposal program. Online Risk Communication Assistant Tool (ORCAT) system is developed in order to support risk communication for HLW disposal on World Wide Web. We have been evaluating ORCAT system. After two test operations, we carried out the third test operation from Aug. 29 to Dec. 12, 2005. In the third test operation, 100 participants answered the questionnaires about the attitude change and knowledge. We classified the participants into two groups by the analysis on the number of login a week, and analyzed the change of the amount of subjective and objective knowledge. In the result of analysis on knowledge, the increase of amount of subjective knowledge doesn't always carried the increase of amount of objective knowledge. On the whole we found that the ORCAT system is evaluated useful to the risk communication about the HLW disposal. (author)

  5. Reliability and risk evaluation of a port oil pipeline transportation system in variable operation conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Soszynska, Joanna

    2010-01-01

    The semi-Markov model of the system operation processes is proposed and its selected characteristics are determined. A system composed on multi-state components is considered and its reliability and risk characteristics are found. Next, the joint model of the system operation process and the system multi-state reliability is applied to the reliability and risk evaluation of the port oil pipeline transportation system. The pipeline system is described and its operation process unknown parameters are identified on the basis of real statistical data. The mean values of the pipeline system operation process unconditional sojourn times in particular operation states are found and applied to determining this process transient probabilities in these states. The piping different reliability structures in various its operation states are fixed and their conditional reliability functions on the basis of data coming from experts are approximately determined. Finally, after applying earlier estimated transient probabilities and system conditional reliability functions in particular operation states the unconditional reliability function, the mean values and standard deviations of the pipeline lifetimes in particular reliability states, risk function and the moment when the risk exceeds a critical value are found.

  6. Reliability and risk evaluation of a port oil pipeline transportation system in variable operation conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Soszynska, Joanna, E-mail: joannas@am.gdynia.p [Department of Mathematics, Gdynia Maritime University, ul. Morska 83, 81-225 Gdynia (Poland)

    2010-02-15

    The semi-Markov model of the system operation processes is proposed and its selected characteristics are determined. A system composed on multi-state components is considered and its reliability and risk characteristics are found. Next, the joint model of the system operation process and the system multi-state reliability is applied to the reliability and risk evaluation of the port oil pipeline transportation system. The pipeline system is described and its operation process unknown parameters are identified on the basis of real statistical data. The mean values of the pipeline system operation process unconditional sojourn times in particular operation states are found and applied to determining this process transient probabilities in these states. The piping different reliability structures in various its operation states are fixed and their conditional reliability functions on the basis of data coming from experts are approximately determined. Finally, after applying earlier estimated transient probabilities and system conditional reliability functions in particular operation states the unconditional reliability function, the mean values and standard deviations of the pipeline lifetimes in particular reliability states, risk function and the moment when the risk exceeds a critical value are found.

  7. Operational risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKim, Vicky L

    2017-06-01

    In the world of risk management, which encompasses the business continuity disciplines, many types of risk require evaluation. Financial risk is most often the primary focus, followed by product and market risks. Another critical area, which typically lacks a thorough review or may be overlooked, is operational risk. This category encompasses many risk exposure types including those around building structures and systems, environmental issues, nature, neighbours, clients, regulatory compliance, network, data security and so on. At times, insurance carriers will assess internal hazards, but seldom do these assessments include more than a cursory look at other types of operational risk. In heavily regulated environments, risk assessments are required but may not always include thorough assessments of operational exposures. Vulnerabilities may linger or go unnoticed, only to become the catalyst for a business disruption at a later time, some of which are so severe that business recovery becomes nearly impossible. Businesses may suffer loss of clients as the result of a prolonged disruption of services. Comprehensive operational risk assessments can assist in identifying such vulnerabilities, exposures and threats so that the risk can be minimised or removed. This paper lays out how an assessment of this type can be successfully conducted.

  8. Evaluating the operational risks of biomedical waste using failure mode and effects analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Ying-Chu; Tsai, Pei-Yi

    2017-06-01

    The potential problems and risks of biomedical waste generation have become increasingly apparent in recent years. This study applied a failure mode and effects analysis to evaluate the operational problems and risks of biomedical waste. The microbiological contamination of biomedical waste seldom receives the attention of researchers. In this study, the biomedical waste lifecycle was divided into seven processes: Production, classification, packaging, sterilisation, weighing, storage, and transportation. Twenty main failure modes were identified in these phases and risks were assessed based on their risk priority numbers. The failure modes in the production phase accounted for the highest proportion of the risk priority number score (27.7%). In the packaging phase, the failure mode 'sharp articles not placed in solid containers' had the highest risk priority number score, mainly owing to its high severity rating. The sterilisation process is the main difference in the treatment of infectious and non-infectious biomedical waste. The failure modes in the sterilisation phase were mainly owing to human factors (mostly related to operators). This study increases the understanding of the potential problems and risks associated with biomedical waste, thereby increasing awareness of how to improve the management of biomedical waste to better protect workers, the public, and the environment.

  9. A probabilistic risk assessment of the LLNL Plutonium facility's evaluation basis fire operational accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brumburgh, G.

    1994-01-01

    The Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) Plutonium Facility conducts numerous involving plutonium to include device fabrication, development of fabrication techniques, metallurgy research, and laser isotope separation. A Safety Analysis Report (SAR) for the building 332 Plutonium Facility was completed rational safety and acceptable risk to employees, the public, government property, and the environment. This paper outlines the PRA analysis of the Evaluation Basis Fire (EDF) operational accident. The EBF postulates the worst-case programmatic impact event for the Plutonium Facility

  10. A probabilistic risk assessment of the LLNL Plutonium Facility's evaluation basis fire operational accident. Revision 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brumburgh, G.P.

    1995-01-01

    The Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) Plutonium Facility conducts numerous programmatic activities involving plutonium to include device fabrication, development of improved and/or unique fabrication techniques, metallurgy research, and laser isotope separation. A Safety Analysis Report (SAR) for the building 332 Plutonium Facility was completed in July 1994 to address operational safety and acceptable risk to employees, the public, government property, and the environmental. This paper outlines the PRA analysis of the Evaluation Basis Fire (EBF) operational accident. The EBF postulates the worst-case programmatic impact event for the Plutonium Facility

  11. A Hybrid Approach for Evaluating Faulty Behavior Risk of High-Risk Operations Using ANP and Evidence Theory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xia-Zhong Zheng

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Hydropower project construction is a high-risk operation, where accidents occur frequently. Moreover, the factors leading to accidents are often human factors, so safety evaluation of these factors for the hydropower projects’ work system is very significant. The Human Factors Analysis and Classification System (HFACS framework is applied to build evaluation system. In the evaluation process, correlation analysis is used to form the intercriteria analysis matrix that helps the decision makers to build impact relation matrix. Factor weights are calculated by the Analytic Network Process (ANP. In the index value determination step, the evidence theory is used to eliminate the conflicts of three decision makers and the index values are then calculated. The faulty behavior risk (FBR assessment value is finally obtained. The proposed method is practical and its applicability is proved by an example.

  12. Prospective evaluation of stress myocardial perfusion imaging for pre-operative cardiac risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Byrne, A.J.; Rowe, C.C.; Flannery, G.

    2002-01-01

    Full text: A prospective evaluation of patients who underwent stress myocardial perfusion imaging (MPI) to assess preoperative cardiac risk was undertaken. At the time of the scan patients were classified into 4 Clinical Risk groups (CR) based on known clinical data. On completion of the scan, the patient was then categorised into 4 Scan based Risk groups (SR), incorporating size of perfusion deficit, single versus multi-vessel disease and ejection fraction. Surgery at Austin and Repatriation Medical Centre within 6 months of scan and complications were identified using the hospital medical database. Major early cardiac events coded were death (cardiac related), myocardial infarction, unstable angina, acute pulmonary oedema, cardiac arrest, and urgent revascularisation. 208 patients have reached 6 months post-MPI scan. Of these 119 (57%) were identified as having surgery. Of the Scan Risk groups, 63% of normal, 57% of increased, and 47% of high and very high groups have had surgery. An abnormal scan is associated with a three-fold risk of cardiac complication (3.5% vs 11.3%). This is lower than most previous reports and may be due to higher representation of low risk surgical procedures (14% in this series), improved peri-operative care and/or the test result influence on management (suggested by decreasing surgical rate as SR estimate rose). Copyright (2002) The Australian and New Zealand Society of Nuclear Medicine Inc

  13. Implications of commodity price risk and operating leverage on petroleum project economic evaluations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Salahor, G.; Laughton, D.G.

    1999-01-01

    The modern asset pricing method, MAP, can provide businesses with improved tools for economic analysis. This in turn leads to greater precision in the analysis of the effects of the following parameters: project structure, time, and uncertainty. This greater precision with MAP extends to analysis of the possibility for active control of the decision alternatives for managers in the petroleum business, especially where this possibility is not questioned. A methodology is developed as a model that quantifies revenue risk based on the nature of commodity price volatility and the accepted price of risk in the commodity market. A mathematical description is included of a natural gas log-normal distribution incorporating the annual volatility in the forecast, and a measure of the rate at which volatility decreases in the long run in the forecast. Give this volatility model, a risk discount factor is determinable and applicable to the current expectation of the commodity prices at a given time, and a discount time factor of all parts of the cash flow stream. Cases are used to evaluate a natural gas development project for the purpose of yielding scenarios for capital vs. operating cost trade-offs, price risk management, production profile, and the effect of the reverting vs. non-reverting price model. In application one, a comparison is made of discounted cash flow (DCF) to MAP evaluations giving a perspective on the various development choices which a producer has through third-party service providers. Further, an example is used to compare the two methods as alternative evaluations of development alternatives to speed up or slow down the production rate and decline profile of a gas field. As in the first example, the DCF discounting is higher than the net discounting in the MAP evaluation. But in this example both methods produce the same project structure decision. The small amount of incremental capital and operating costs needed for the higher production case are

  14. Performance of European system for cardiac operative risk evaluation in Veterans General Hospital Kaohsiung cardiac surgery

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hsin-Hung Shih

    2011-03-01

    Conclusion: EuroSCORE is simple and easy to use. In the present study, the model demonstrated excellent accuracy in all and various surgical subgroups in VGHKS cardiovascular surgery populations. Good calibration ability in all and different risk categories was identified except for isolated CABG group. Recalibration factors of 0.55 and 0.85 were suggested for the various operative subgroups and risk categories.

  15. Risk evaluation for motor operated valves in an Inservice Testing Program at a PWR nuclear power plant in Taiwan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li, Y.C.; Chen, K.T.; Su, Y.L.; Ting, K.; Chien, F.T.; Li, G.D.; Huang, S.H.

    2012-01-01

    Safety related valves such as Motor Operated Valves (MOV), Air Operated Valves (AOV) or Check Valves (CV) play an important role in nuclear power plant. Functioning of these valves mainly aim at emergency reactivity control, post-accident residue heat removal, post-accident radioactivity removal and containment isolation when a design basis accident occurred. In order to maintain these valves under operable conditions, an Inservice Testing Program (IST) is defined for routine testing tasks based on the ASME Boiler and Pressure Vessel Code section XI code requirements. Risk based Inservice Testing Programs have been studied and developed extensively in the nuclear energy industry since the 1990s. Risk Based evaluations of IST can bring positive advantages to the licensee such as identifying the vulnerability of the system, reducing unnecessary testing burden, concentrating testing resources on the critical pass oriented valves and saving plant’s personnel dose exposure. This risk evaluation is incorporated with quantitative and qualitative analyses to the Motor Operated Valves under current Inservice Testing Program for PWR nuclear power plant in Taiwan. With the outcome of the risk classifications for the safety related MOVs through numerical or deterministic analyses, a risk based testing frequency relief is suggested to demonstrate the benefits received from the risk based Inservice Testing Program. The goal made of this study, it could be as a reference and cornerstone for the licensee to perform overall scope Risk-Informed Inservice Testing Program (RI-IST) evaluation by referring relevant methodologies established in this study.

  16. FUNGAL AND MICOTOXIN CONTAMINATION IN MIXED FEEDS: EVALUATING RISK IN CATTLE INTENSIVE REARING OPERATIONS (FEEDLOTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cavaglieri LR

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Argentina is the fourth global beef producer. Exposure to mycotoxins through contaminated feed is a major hazard for ruminants. In the present study we assess mycobiota, aflatoxin B1 (AFB1, fumonisin B1 (FB1, deoxynivalenol (DON and zearalenone (ZEA levels in total mixed rations (TMRs during two consecutive years. Total fungal counts were evaluated and fungal species were identified. Also, ability of A. flavus isolates to produce AFB1 in vitro was tested. Natural contamination with AFB1 and FB1 was quantified by HPLC. Deoxynivalenol and zearalenone were analysed by immunochromatography and thinlayer chromatogra- phy (TLC, respectively. Fungal counts varied from not detectable (ND to 2.10 x 108 CFU g-1. The prevalent genera were Aspergillus spp (60 % and Fusarium spp (66.7 %, respectively The prevalent species was Aspergillus fumigatus. 50 % of A. flavus strains produced 75 to 112.5 μg g-1 AFB1. 46 % of 2007 samples were contaminated with 4 to 10 μg kg-1 AFB1. Deoxynivalenol was detected in 33.3 % of the samples (≥ 1. 25 μg g-1. Fumonisin B1 and ZEA were not detected. This study can be useful to estimate the mycotoxicological risk of cattle TMRs in this region and to compare results with studies from other beef-producing countries.

  17. Evaluation of the sanitary and environmental risks resulting from the Erika sinking and from the coasts cleaning operations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cicolella, A.

    2000-03-01

    This synthesis presents the methodology of the risks evaluation and of the INERIS report, the products analysis, general data on polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, the exposure evaluation, the sanitary impact evaluation for the polycyclic organic hydrocarbons and volatile organic compounds and the evaluation of ecological risks. (A.L.B.)

  18. Human health risk assessment screening approach for evaluating contaminants at source control and integrator operable units

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blaylock, B.G.; Frank, M.L.; Hoffman, F.O.; Miller, P.D.; White, R.K.; Purucker, S.T.; Redfearn, A.

    1992-10-01

    A more streamlined approach is proposed for executing the Remedial Investigation/Feasibility Study Process. This approach recognizes the uncertainties associated with the process, particularly regarding the derivation of human health risk estimates. The approach is tailored for early identification of sites and contaminants of immediate concern, early remediation of such sites, and early identification of low-risk sites that can be eliminated from further investigations. The purpose is to hasten the clean-up process and do so in a cost-effective manner

  19. Operational Area Environmental Evaluations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bailey-White, Brenda Eileen [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Nagy, Michael David [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Wagner, Katrina Marie [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Goodman, Thomas Richard [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Herring, Allen [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Catechis, Christopher S. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Kinghorn, Aubrianna Nicole [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Johnson, Ellie [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Barthel, Michael David [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Casaus, Benito [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2017-08-01

    The Operational Area Environmental Evaluation update provides a description of activities that have the potential to adversely affect natural and cultural resources, including soil, air, water, biological, ecological, and historical resources. The environmental sensitivity of an area is evaluated and summarized, which may facilitate informed management decisions as to where development may be prohibited, restricted, or subject to additional requirements.

  20. A Taxonomy of Operational Risks

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Gallagher, Brian P; Case, Pamela J; Creel, Rita C; Kushner, Susan; Williams, Ray C

    2005-01-01

    ... identification of risks associated with the development of a software-dependent project. Since then, this method also has been used in the Software Risk Evaluation process to identify risks associated with the development of software-intensive systems...

  1. MeProRisk - a toolbox for evaluating risks in exploration, development, and operation of geothermal reservoirs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clauser, C.

    2009-04-01

    When developing geothermal resources, the risk of failure is still high when compared to hydrocarbon exploration. The MeProRisk projects aims at the improvement of strategies in all phases of the reservoir life cycle. It is a joint enterprise of five university institutes at RWTH Aachen University, Free University Berlin, and Kiel University. Two partners, namely Geophysica Beratunggesellschaft mbH, (Aachen), and RWE Dea AG (Hamburg) present the industrial side. It is funded by the German Ministry of Education and Science (BMBF). The key idea followed in this project is that the development of the understanding of a given reservoir is an iterative process. Starting from geological base knowledge and geophysical exploration one or more conceptual models will emerge, which will be incorporated in first numerical models. The use of inverse techniques in a broad sense will not only lead to an optimal model, but will produce uncertainty and resolution estimates for this model. This information may be used for further setup of optimal experiments, including the choice of exploration well locations. In later stages of reservoir development, the numerical models will be continuously updated based on the most recent models. Once wells have been drilled, the character of experiments shifts from static methods to dynamic interaction with the reservoir, e.g. by injection experiments and their monitoring. The use of all the methods with one simulation tool poses large challenges. Inverse problems require orders of magnitude larger computer resources, and the development of appropriate theoretical and numerical methods for this is on of the primary aims of this project. Due to the less obvious signatures of geothermally relevant targets, it is also necessary to improve the experimental base for model setup and update by developing new and better methods for some of the key problems in the case of geothermal targets. Among these are the development of methods to estimate

  2. Pre-operative evaluation for thorax surgery

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Silva Luis, Saenz; Morales, Oscar Alberto

    2002-01-01

    A pre-operative analysis of the function of the breathing system is made in the patient that will be taken to thorax surgery. The paper includes risk factors, pre-operative clinical evaluation and of breathing and cardiovascular system

  3. Modeling for operational event risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sattison, M.B.

    1997-01-01

    The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission has been using risk models to evaluate the risk significance of operational events in U.S. commercial nuclear power plants for more seventeen years. During that time, the models have evolved in response to the advances in risk assessment technology and insights gained with experience. Evaluation techniques fall into two categories, initiating event assessments and condition assessments. The models used for these analyses have become uniquely specialized for just this purpose

  4. Modified risk evaluation method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Udell, C.J.; Tilden, J.A.; Toyooka, R.T.

    1993-08-01

    The purpose of this paper is to provide a structured and cost-oriented process to determine risks associated with nuclear material and other security interests. Financial loss is a continuing concern for US Department of Energy contractors. In this paper risk is equated with uncertainty of cost impacts to material assets or human resources. The concept provides a method for assessing the effectiveness of an integrated protection system, which includes operations, safety, emergency preparedness, and safeguards and security. The concept is suitable for application to sabotage evaluations. The protection of assets is based on risk associated with cost impacts to assets and the potential for undesirable events. This will allow managers to establish protection priorities in terms of the cost and the potential for the event, given the current level of protection

  5. The Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm Statistically Corrected Operative Risk Evaluation (AAA SCORE) for predicting mortality after open and endovascular interventions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ambler, Graeme K; Gohel, Manjit S; Mitchell, David C; Loftus, Ian M; Boyle, Jonathan R

    2015-01-01

    Accurate adjustment of surgical outcome data for risk is vital in an era of surgeon-level reporting. Current risk prediction models for abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) repair are suboptimal. We aimed to develop a reliable risk model for in-hospital mortality after intervention for AAA, using rigorous contemporary statistical techniques to handle missing data. Using data collected during a 15-month period in the United Kingdom National Vascular Database, we applied multiple imputation methodology together with stepwise model selection to generate preoperative and perioperative models of in-hospital mortality after AAA repair, using two thirds of the available data. Model performance was then assessed on the remaining third of the data by receiver operating characteristic curve analysis and compared with existing risk prediction models. Model calibration was assessed by Hosmer-Lemeshow analysis. A total of 8088 AAA repair operations were recorded in the National Vascular Database during the study period, of which 5870 (72.6%) were elective procedures. Both preoperative and perioperative models showed excellent discrimination, with areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve of .89 and .92, respectively. This was significantly better than any of the existing models (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for best comparator model, .84 and .88; P AAA repair. These models were carefully developed with rigorous statistical methodology and significantly outperform existing methods for both elective cases and overall AAA mortality. These models will be invaluable for both preoperative patient counseling and accurate risk adjustment of published outcome data. Copyright © 2015 Society for Vascular Surgery. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  6. Risk assessment in international operations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stricklin, Daniela L.

    2008-01-01

    During international peace-keeping missions, a diverse number of non-battle hazards may be encountered, which range from heavily polluted areas, endemic disease, toxic industrial materials, local violence, traffic, and even psychological factors. Hence, elevated risk levels from a variety of sources are encountered during deployments. With the emphasis within the Swedish military moving from national defense towards prioritization of international missions in atypical environments, the risk of health consequences, including long term health effects, has received greater consideration. The Swedish military is interested in designing an optimal approach for assessment of health threats during deployments. The Medical Intelligence group at FOI CBRN Security and Defence in Umea has, on request from and in collaboration with the Swedish Armed Forces, reviewed a variety of international health threat and risk assessment models for military operations. Application of risk assessment methods used in different phases of military operations will be reviewed. An overview of different international approaches used in operational risk management (ORM) will be presented as well as a discussion of the specific needs and constraints for health risk assessment in military operations. This work highlights the specific challenges of risk assessment that are unique to the deployment setting such as the assessment of exposures to a variety of diverse hazards concurrently

  7. Evaluation of the sanitary and environmental risks resulting from the Erika sinking and from the coasts cleaning operations; Evaluation des risques sanitaires et environnementaux resultant du naufrage de l'ERIKA et des operations de nettoyage des cotes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cicolella, A

    2000-03-15

    This synthesis presents the methodology of the risks evaluation and of the INERIS report, the products analysis, general data on polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, the exposure evaluation, the sanitary impact evaluation for the polycyclic organic hydrocarbons and volatile organic compounds and the evaluation of ecological risks. (A.L.B.)

  8. Risk assessment and risk evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Niehaus, F.

    1978-01-01

    With the help of results of investigations and model calculations the risk of nuclear energy in routine operation is shown. In this context it is pointed out that the excellent operation results of reactors all over the world have led to the acceptability of risks from local loads no longer being in question. The attention of radiation protection is therefore focused on the emissions of long-living isotopes which collect in the atmosphere. With LWRs the risk of accidents is so minimal that statistical data is, and never will be available. One has to therefore fall back upon the so-called fault tree analyses. On the subject of risk evalution the author referred to a poll in Austria. From the result of this investigation one might conclude that nuclear energy serves as a crystallization point for a discussion of varying concepts for future development. More attention should be paid to this aspect from both sides, in order to objectify the further expansion of this source of energy. (orig./HP) [de

  9. Assessing reservoir operations risk under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brekke, L.D.; Maurer, E.P.; Anderson, J.D.; Dettinger, M.D.; Townsley, E.S.; Harrison, A.; Pruitt, T.

    2009-01-01

    Risk-based planning offers a robust way to identify strategies that permit adaptive water resources management under climate change. This paper presents a flexible methodology for conducting climate change risk assessments involving reservoir operations. Decision makers can apply this methodology to their systems by selecting future periods and risk metrics relevant to their planning questions and by collectively evaluating system impacts relative to an ensemble of climate projection scenarios (weighted or not). This paper shows multiple applications of this methodology in a case study involving California's Central Valley Project and State Water Project systems. Multiple applications were conducted to show how choices made in conducting the risk assessment, choices known as analytical design decisions, can affect assessed risk. Specifically, risk was reanalyzed for every choice combination of two design decisions: (1) whether to assume climate change will influence flood-control constraints on water supply operations (and how), and (2) whether to weight climate change scenarios (and how). Results show that assessed risk would motivate different planning pathways depending on decision-maker attitudes toward risk (e.g., risk neutral versus risk averse). Results also show that assessed risk at a given risk attitude is sensitive to the analytical design choices listed above, with the choice of whether to adjust flood-control rules under climate change having considerably more influence than the choice on whether to weight climate scenarios. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.

  10. Does Operational Risk Disclosure Quality Increase Operating Cash Flows?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Haitham Nobanee

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available This study aims to measure the degree of operational risk disclosure and examine its impact on operating cash flow of banks listed on the UAE Abu Dhabi Stock Exchange (ADX and Dubai Financial Market (DFM during the period 2003-2016. The authors conducted content analysis of the annual reports to measure the degree of operational risk disclosure. In addition, they used dynamic panel data regressions to analyze the impact of operational risk disclosure on the operating cash flow generated by the banks. The results show a low degree of operational risk disclosure for all UAE banks, both Islamic and conventional. In addition, the results show no association between the levels of disclosure of operational risk and cash flow for all banks, conventional and Islamic. Operational risk disclosure of Islamic banks has not been examined by any prior researchers. In addition, this paper examines the potential impact of operational risk disclosure on the operating cash flow generated by the banks.

  11. Enterprise risk management in international construction operations

    CERN Document Server

    Zhao, Xianbo; Low, Sui Pheng

    2015-01-01

    This book provides readers an understanding of the implementation of Enterprise Risk Management (ERM) for international construction operations. In an extended case study, it primarily focuses on Chinese construction firms (CCFs) based in Singapore. In this regard, the book explains the differences and similarities between Risk Management (RM), Project Risk Management (PRM) and ERM in the construction industry, and examines their linkages for international construction operations in a broader context. The explanation elaborates on how companies may adopt and implement RM, PRM and ERM as appropriate in their various operations, both in their home market as well as in overseas host markets. The book also reviews the whole spectrum of work relating to organizational behavior (OB) as one of the key underpinnings for companies to evaluate and implement ERM. It will benefit practitioners from the industry as well as academics interested in the implementation of ERM practices in international construction operat...

  12. Probability distributions in risk management operations

    CERN Document Server

    Artikis, Constantinos

    2015-01-01

    This book is about the formulations, theoretical investigations, and practical applications of new stochastic models for fundamental concepts and operations of the discipline of risk management. It also examines how these models can be useful in the descriptions, measurements, evaluations, and treatments of risks threatening various modern organizations. Moreover, the book makes clear that such stochastic models constitute very strong analytical tools which substantially facilitate strategic thinking and strategic decision making in many significant areas of risk management. In particular the incorporation of fundamental probabilistic concepts such as the sum, minimum, and maximum of a random number of continuous, positive, independent, and identically distributed random variables in the mathematical structure of stochastic models significantly supports the suitability of these models in the developments, investigations, selections, and implementations of proactive and reactive risk management operations. The...

  13. Risk estimation and evaluation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ferguson, R A.D.

    1982-10-01

    Risk assessment involves subjectivity, which makes objective decision making difficult in the nuclear power debate. The author reviews the process and uncertainties of estimating risks as well as the potential for misinterpretation and misuse. Risk data from a variety of aspects cannot be summed because the significance of different risks is not comparable. A method for including political, social, moral, psychological, and economic factors, environmental impacts, catastrophes, and benefits in the evaluation process could involve a broad base of lay and technical consultants, who would explain and argue their evaluation positions. 15 references. (DCK)

  14. Controlling operational risk: Concepts and practices

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van den Tillaart, A.H.A.J.

    2003-01-01

    The subject of this thesis is controlling 'operational risk' in banks. Operational risk is defined as the risk of losses resulting from inadequate or failed internal processes, people, systems, or from external events. Within this very broad subject, we focus on the place of operational risk

  15. Evaluation of potential severe accidents during low power and shutdown operations at Grand Gulf, Unit 1: Evaluation of severe accident risks for plant operational state 5 during a refueling outage. Main report and appendices, Volume 6, Part 1

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brown, T.D.; Kmetyk, L.N.; Whitehead, D.; Miller, L. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Forester, J. [Science Applications International Corp., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Johnson, J. [GRAM, Inc., Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    1995-03-01

    Traditionally, probabilistic risk assessments (PRAS) of severe accidents in nuclear power plants have considered initiating events potentially occurring only during full power operation. Recent studies and operational experience have, however, implied that accidents during low power and shutdown could be significant contributors to risk. In response to this concern, in 1989 the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) initiated an extensive program to carefully examine the potential risks during low power and shutdown operations. Two plants, Surry (pressurized water reactor) and Grand Gulf (boiling water reactor), were selected as the plants to be studied. The program consists of two parallel projects being performed by Brookhaven National Laboratory (Surry) and Sandia National Laboratories (Grand Gulf). The program objectives include assessing the risks of severe accidents initiated during plant operational states other than full power operation and comparing the estimated risks with the risk associated with accidents initiated during full power operation as assessed in NUREG-1150. The scope of the program is that of a Level-3 PRA. The subject of this report is the PRA of the Grand Gulf Nuclear Station, Unit 1. The Grand Gulf plant utilizes a 3833 MWt BUR-6 boiling water reactor housed in a Mark III containment. The Grand Gulf plant is located near Port Gibson, Mississippi. The regime of shutdown analyzed in this study was plant operational state (POS) 5 during a refueling outage, which is approximately Cold Shutdown as defined by Grand Gulf Technical Specifications. The entire PRA of POS 5 is documented in a multi-volume NUREG report (NUREG/CR-6143). The internal events accident sequence analysis (Level 1) is documented in Volume 2. The Level 1 internal fire and internal flood analyses are documented in Vols 3 and 4, respectively.

  16. Evaluation of potential severe accidents during low power and shutdown operations at Grand Gulf, Unit 1: Evaluation of severe accident risks for plant operational state 5 during a refueling outage. Main report and appendices, Volume 6, Part 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brown, T.D.; Kmetyk, L.N.; Whitehead, D.; Miller, L.; Forester, J.; Johnson, J.

    1995-03-01

    Traditionally, probabilistic risk assessments (PRAS) of severe accidents in nuclear power plants have considered initiating events potentially occurring only during full power operation. Recent studies and operational experience have, however, implied that accidents during low power and shutdown could be significant contributors to risk. In response to this concern, in 1989 the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) initiated an extensive program to carefully examine the potential risks during low power and shutdown operations. Two plants, Surry (pressurized water reactor) and Grand Gulf (boiling water reactor), were selected as the plants to be studied. The program consists of two parallel projects being performed by Brookhaven National Laboratory (Surry) and Sandia National Laboratories (Grand Gulf). The program objectives include assessing the risks of severe accidents initiated during plant operational states other than full power operation and comparing the estimated risks with the risk associated with accidents initiated during full power operation as assessed in NUREG-1150. The scope of the program is that of a Level-3 PRA. The subject of this report is the PRA of the Grand Gulf Nuclear Station, Unit 1. The Grand Gulf plant utilizes a 3833 MWt BUR-6 boiling water reactor housed in a Mark III containment. The Grand Gulf plant is located near Port Gibson, Mississippi. The regime of shutdown analyzed in this study was plant operational state (POS) 5 during a refueling outage, which is approximately Cold Shutdown as defined by Grand Gulf Technical Specifications. The entire PRA of POS 5 is documented in a multi-volume NUREG report (NUREG/CR-6143). The internal events accident sequence analysis (Level 1) is documented in Volume 2. The Level 1 internal fire and internal flood analyses are documented in Vols 3 and 4, respectively

  17. Screening Risk Evaluation methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hopper, K.M.

    1994-01-01

    The Screening Risk Evaluation (SRE) Guidance document is a set of guidelines provided for the uniform implementation of SREs performed on D ampersand D facilities. These guidelines are designed specifically for the completion of the second (semi-quantitative screening) phase of the D ampersand D Risk-Based Process. The SRE Guidance produces screening risk scores reflecting levels of risk through the use of risk ranking indices. Five types of possible risk are calculated from the SRE: current releases, worker exposures, future releases, physical hazards, and criticality. The Current Release Index (CRI) calculates the risk to human health and the environment from ongoing or probable releases within a one year time period. The Worker Exposure Index (WEI) calculates the risk to workers, occupants, and visitors in D ampersand D facilities of contaminant exposure. The Future Release Index (FRI) calculates the risk of future releases of contaminants, after one year, to human health and the environment. The Physical Hazards Index (PHI) calculates the risk-to human health due to factors other than that of contaminants. The index of Criticality is approached as a modifying factor to the entire SRE, due to the fact that criticality issues are strictly regulated under DOE. Screening risk results will be tabulated in matrix form and Total Risk will be calculated (weighted equation) to produce a score on which to base early action recommendations. Other recommendations from the screening risk scores will be made based either on individual index scores or from reweighted Total Risk calculations. All recommendations based on the SRE will be made based on a combination of screening risk scores, decision drivers, and other considerations, determined on a project by project basis. The SRE is the first and most important step in the overall D ampersand D project level decision making process

  18. Operational risk and e-banking

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Şerbu, R.

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Banking involves a variety of risks. Under Basel II, the main risks are the monitored credit risk, market risk and operational risk. Frequently, operational risks are underestimated, considering that they would not affect the optimal activity of a bank. However, past experience of some credit institutions have shown that operational risk is an important cause of financial losses in the banking sector. Operational risk is generated by a complex of factors that manifests primarily as a result of direct customer interaction with the credit institution. In this context, the provision of e-banking services reduces direct contact with bank customers and thus reduces potential losses arising from operational risk. In sum, we consider it necessary to be aware of the link between operational risk and e-banking services promoted by banks and of the importance of this connection especially in a financial environment affected by the financial crisis.

  19. Plant operator performance evaluation system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ujita, Hiroshi; Fukuda, Mitsuko; Kubota, Ryuji.

    1989-01-01

    A plant operator performance evaluation system to analyze plant operation records during accident training and to identify and classify operator errors has been developed for the purpose of supporting realization of a training and education system for plant operators. A knowledge engineering technique was applied to evaluation of operator behavior by both even-based and symptom-based procedures, in various situations including event transition due to multiple failures or operational errors. The system classifies the identified errors as to their single and double types based on Swain's error classification and the error levels reflecting Rasmussen's cognitive level, and it also evaluates the effect of errors on plant state and then classifies error influence, using 'knowledge for phenomena and operations', as represented by frames. It has additional functions for analysis of error statistics and knowledge acquisition support of 'knowledge for operations'. The system was applied to a training analysis for a scram event in a BWR plant, and its error analysis function was confirmed to be effective by operational experts. (author)

  20. Evaluation of the risk to underground mine personnel due to the rockmass response to continuous mining operations.

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Van Aswegen, G

    2001-11-01

    Full Text Available rockmass response to mining. This helps to understand how the time of day distribution of seismic events can be affected by changes in mining operations. The literature survey did not contribute to the development of particular procedures for the difference...

  1. Measurements and evaluation of the risks due to external radiation exposures and to intake of activated elements for operational staff engaged in the maintenance of medical cyclotrons.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calandrino, R; del Vecchio, A; Parisi, R; Todde, S; De Felice, P; Savi, A; Pepe, A; Mrskova, A

    2010-06-01

    The aim of this paper is to assess the activation phenomena and to evaluate the risk of external exposure and intake doses for the maintenance staff of two medical cyclotrons. Two self-shielded cyclotrons are currently operating in the facility for the routine production of (11)C and (18)F. Four radiochemistry laboratories are linked to the cyclotrons by means of shielded radioisotope delivery lines. Radiopharmaceuticals are prepared both for the PET Diagnostic Department, where four CT-PET scanners are operating with a mean patient workload of 40 d(-1) and for [(18)F]FDG external distribution, to provide radiopharmaceuticals for other institutions. In spite of the fact that air contamination inside the radiochemistry laboratories during the synthesis represents the largest 'slice of the pie' in the evaluation of annual intake dose, potential contamination due to the activated particulate, generated during cyclotron irradiation by micro-corrosion of targets and other components potentially struck by the proton beam and generated neutrons, should be considered. In this regard, the most plausible long-lived (T(1/2) > 30 d) radioisotopes formed are: (97)Tc, (56)Co, (57)Co, (58)Co, (60)Co, (49)V, (55)Fe, (109)Cd, (65)Zn and (22)Na. The results for the operating personnel survey has revealed only low-level contamination for (65)Zn in one test, together with minor (18)F intake, probably due to the environmental dispersion of the radioisotope during the [(18)F]FDG synthesis.

  2. Performance of the European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation II: a meta-analysis of 22 studies involving 145,592 cardiac surgery procedures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guida, Pietro; Mastro, Florinda; Scrascia, Giuseppe; Whitlock, Richard; Paparella, Domenico

    2014-12-01

    A systematic review of the European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (euroSCORE) II performance for prediction of operative mortality after cardiac surgery has not been performed. We conducted a meta-analysis of studies based on the predictive accuracy of the euroSCORE II. We searched the Embase and PubMed databases for all English-only articles reporting performance characteristics of the euroSCORE II. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, the observed/expected mortality ratio, and observed-expected mortality difference with their 95% confidence intervals were analyzed. Twenty-two articles were selected, including 145,592 procedures. Operative mortality occurred in 4293 (2.95%), whereas the expected events according to euroSCORE II were 4802 (3.30%). Meta-analysis of these studies provided an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.792 (95% confidence interval, 0.773-0.811), an estimated observed/expected ratio of 1.019 (95% confidence interval, 0.899-1.139), and observed-expected difference of 0.125 (95% confidence interval, -0.269 to 0.519). Statistical heterogeneity was detected among retrospective studies including less recent procedures. Subgroups analysis confirmed the robustness of combined estimates for isolated valve procedures and those combined with revascularization surgery. A significant overestimation of the euroSCORE II with an observed/expected ratio of 0.829 (95% confidence interval, 0.677-0.982) was observed in isolated coronary artery bypass grafting and a slight underestimation of predictions in high-risk patients (observed/expected ratio 1.253 and observed-expected difference 1.859). Despite the heterogeneity, the results from this meta-analysis show a good overall performance of the euroSCORE II in terms of discrimination and accuracy of model predictions for operative mortality. Validation of the euroSCORE II in prospective populations needs to be further studied for a continuous

  3. Evaluation of potential severe accidents during low power and shutdown operations at Surry, Unit 1: Evaluation of severe accident risk during mid-loop operations. Main report. Volume 6. Part 1

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jo, J.; Lin, C.C.; Neymotin, L. [Brookhaven National Lab., Upton, NY (United States)] [and others

    1995-05-01

    During 1989, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) initiated an extensive program to carefully examine the potential risks during low power and shutdown operations. The program includes two parallel projects being performed by Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) and Sandia National Laboratories (SNL). Two plants, Surry (pressurized water reactor) and Grand Gulf (boiling water reactor), were selected as the plants to be studied. The objectives of the program are to assess the risks of severe accidents initiated during plant operational states other than full power operation and to compare the estimated core damage frequencies, important accident sequences and other qualitative and quantitative results with those accidents initiated during full power operation as assessed in NUREG-1150. The scope of the program includes that of a level-3 PRA. A phased approach was used in the level-1 program. In phase 1 which was completed in Fall 1991, a coarse screening analysis including internal fire and flood was performed for all plant operational states (POSs). The objective of the phase 1 study was to identify potential vulnerable plant configurations, to characterize (on a high, medium, or low basis) the potential core damage accident scenarios, and to provide a foundation for a detailed phase 2 analysis. In phase 2, mid-loop operation was selected as the plant configuration to be analyzed based on the results of the phase 1 study. The objective of the phase 2 study is to perform a detailed analysis of the potential accident scenarios that may occur during mid-loop operation, and compare the results with those of NUREG-1150. The results of the phase 2 level 2/3 study are the subject of this volume of NUREG/CR-6144, Volume 6.

  4. Evaluation of potential severe accidents during low power and shutdown operations at Surry, Unit 1: Evaluation of severe accident risk during mid-loop operations. Main report. Volume 6. Part 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jo, J.; Lin, C.C.; Neymotin, L.

    1995-05-01

    During 1989, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) initiated an extensive program to carefully examine the potential risks during low power and shutdown operations. The program includes two parallel projects being performed by Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) and Sandia National Laboratories (SNL). Two plants, Surry (pressurized water reactor) and Grand Gulf (boiling water reactor), were selected as the plants to be studied. The objectives of the program are to assess the risks of severe accidents initiated during plant operational states other than full power operation and to compare the estimated core damage frequencies, important accident sequences and other qualitative and quantitative results with those accidents initiated during full power operation as assessed in NUREG-1150. The scope of the program includes that of a level-3 PRA. A phased approach was used in the level-1 program. In phase 1 which was completed in Fall 1991, a coarse screening analysis including internal fire and flood was performed for all plant operational states (POSs). The objective of the phase 1 study was to identify potential vulnerable plant configurations, to characterize (on a high, medium, or low basis) the potential core damage accident scenarios, and to provide a foundation for a detailed phase 2 analysis. In phase 2, mid-loop operation was selected as the plant configuration to be analyzed based on the results of the phase 1 study. The objective of the phase 2 study is to perform a detailed analysis of the potential accident scenarios that may occur during mid-loop operation, and compare the results with those of NUREG-1150. The results of the phase 2 level 2/3 study are the subject of this volume of NUREG/CR-6144, Volume 6

  5. Mastery of risks and operational safety, risks and opportunities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2004-01-01

    Creating socially useful richness is certainly the prime reason for companies to exist. Reaching this always moving target leads to seize opportunities and to take risks at the same time. For companies, risks and opportunities are two indissociable factors. Any decision making has to deal with an uncertain environment with random events of technological, economical, biological, human, environmental or natural origin. Because of the fear of uncertainty, risk acts as a brake to initiatives. In front of this problem, companies have to adopt a prevention policy based on a global and systemic approach, by identifying, evaluating, quantifying, sorting, mastering and managing unwanted events and by communicating about the way to treat them. In front of uncertainties, the operational safety, thanks to its methods and tools, supplies an incomparable contribution in the form of an help to any decision made with uncertainties. Operational safety contributes to the evaluation of costs and makes more realistic the economical estimations by taking into account the foreseeable and unforeseeable risks. The mastery of unwanted events, of their stakes and uncertainties, allows companies to carry out their projects in non-determined contexts and in a competitive environment. This colloquium concerns all socio-economical actors: industrialists, investors, decision makers, university and laboratory staffs, etc., who need a better evaluation of risks for a better mastery of their decisions in all sectors of activity. Seventeen papers of this conference, dealing with safety analysis and risk assessment at nuclear facilities and at other energy-related facilities, have been selected for Inis. (J.S.)

  6. An operations-partnered evaluation of care redesign for high-risk patients in the Veterans Health Administration (VHA): Study protocol for the PACT Intensive Management (PIM) randomized quality improvement evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Evelyn T; Zulman, Donna M; Asch, Steven M; Stockdale, Susan E; Yoon, Jean; Ong, Michael K; Lee, Martin; Simon, Alissa; Atkins, David; Schectman, Gordon; Kirsh, Susan R; Rubenstein, Lisa V

    2018-06-01

    Patient-centered medical homes have made great strides providing comprehensive care for patients with chronic conditions, but may not provide sufficient support for patients at highest risk for acute care use. To address this, the Veterans Health Administration (VHA) initiated a five-site demonstration project to evaluate the effectiveness of augmenting the VA's Patient Aligned Care Team (PACT) medical home with PACT Intensive Management (PIM) teams for Veterans at highest risk for hospitalization. Researchers partnered with VHA leadership to design a mixed-methods prospective multi-site evaluation that met leadership's desire for a rigorous evaluation conducted as quality improvement rather than research. We conducted a randomized QI evaluation and assigned high-risk patients to participate in PIM and compared them with high-risk Veterans receiving usual care through PACT. The summative evaluation examines whether PIM: 1) decreases VHA emergency department and hospital use; 2) increases satisfaction with VHA care; 3) decreases provider burnout; and 4) generates positive returns on investment. The formative evaluation aims to support improved care for high-risk patients at demonstration sites and to inform future initiatives for high-risk patients. The evaluation was reviewed by representatives from the VHA Office of Research and Development and the Office of Research Oversight and met criteria for quality improvement. VHA aims to function as a learning organization by rapidly implementing and rigorously testing QI innovations prior to final program or policy development. We observed challenges and opportunities in designing an evaluation consistent with QI standards and operations priorities, while also maintaining scientific rigor. This trial was retrospectively registered at ClinicalTrials.gov on April 3, 2017: NCT03100526. Protocol v1, FY14-17. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. A call for conservation scientists to evaluate opportunities and risks from operation of vertical axis wind turbines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santangeli, Andrea; Katzner, Todd E.

    2015-01-01

    A new conservation paradigm (Kareiva and Marvier, 2012) emphasizes the need for scientists to embrace a holistic approach taking into account the social and natural dimensions of conservation in human-dominated landscapes. While there is heavy debate over the new approach (Tallis and Lubchenco, 2014), most conservation scientists seem to agree on to the need to cooperate with corporations when such interaction can benefit people and the environment (Miller et al., 2014;Tallis and Lubchenco, 2014). Cooperation can be most productive when established in the early phases of development, but this requires a high capacity for forward looking pre-emptive action (i.e., anticipating potential forthcoming issues before they arise; Sutherland and Woodroof, 2009). This framework is particularly salient for rapidly developing and expanding technologies such as those for harvesting renewable energy sources. Here the stakes are very high, as they concern mitigating negative consequences to global climate while generating energy without impacting wildlife. In this vein, past experience is instructional. The environmental impacts of biofuels and wind, among others, have been identified and evaluated rather late (Sutherland and Woodroof, 2009), so that implementation of best management practices on existing facilities is now often prohibitively expensive.

  8. Qualitative techniques for managing operational risk

    OpenAIRE

    Delfiner, Miguel; Pailhé, Cristina

    2009-01-01

    Qualitative techniques are essential tools for identifying and assessing operational risk (OR). Their relevance in assessing OR can be understood due to the lack of a quantitative static model capable of capturing the dynamic operational risk profile which is shaped by managerial decisions. An operational risk profile obtained solely from historical loss data could further change due to corrective actions implemented by the bank after the occurrence of those events. This document introduces s...

  9. Operational Risk Management and Military Aviation Safety

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Ashley, Park

    1999-01-01

    .... The Army's Class A aviation mishap rate declined after it implemented risk management (RM) principles in 1987. This reduction caught the attention of Air Force leadership who have since stated that the application of operational risk management...

  10. Evaluation of potential severe accidents during low power and shutdown operations at Grand Gulf, Unit 1: Evaluation of severe accident risks for plant operational state 5 during a refueling outage. Supporting MELCOR calculations, Volume 6, Part 2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kmetyk, L.N.; Brown, T.D.

    1995-03-01

    To gain a better understanding of the risk significance of low power and shutdown modes of operation, the Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research at the NRC established programs to investigate the likelihood and severity of postulated accidents that could occur during low power and shutdown (LP ampersand S) modes of operation at commercial nuclear power plants. To investigate the likelihood of severe core damage accidents during off power conditions, probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) were performed for two nuclear plants: Unit 1 of the Grand Gulf Nuclear Station, which is a BWR-6 Mark III boiling water reactor (BWR), and Unit 1 of the Surry Power Station, which is a three-loop, subatmospheric, pressurized water reactor (PWR). The analysis of the BWR was conducted at Sandia National Laboratories while the analysis of the PWR was performed at Brookhaven National Laboratory. This multi-volume report presents and discusses the results of the BWR analysis. The subject of this part presents the deterministic code calculations, performed with the MELCOR code, that were used to support the development and quantification of the PRA models. The background for the work documented in this report is summarized, including how deterministic codes are used in PRAS, why the MELCOR code is used, what the capabilities and features of MELCOR are, and how the code has been used by others in the past. Brief descriptions of the Grand Gulf plant and its configuration during LP ampersand S operation and of the MELCOR input model developed for the Grand Gulf plant in its LP ampersand S configuration are given

  11. Evaluation of potential severe accidents during low power and shutdown operations at Grand Gulf, Unit 1: Evaluation of severe accident risks for plant operational state 5 during a refueling outage. Supporting MELCOR calculations, Volume 6, Part 2

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kmetyk, L.N.; Brown, T.D. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    1995-03-01

    To gain a better understanding of the risk significance of low power and shutdown modes of operation, the Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research at the NRC established programs to investigate the likelihood and severity of postulated accidents that could occur during low power and shutdown (LP&S) modes of operation at commercial nuclear power plants. To investigate the likelihood of severe core damage accidents during off power conditions, probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) were performed for two nuclear plants: Unit 1 of the Grand Gulf Nuclear Station, which is a BWR-6 Mark III boiling water reactor (BWR), and Unit 1 of the Surry Power Station, which is a three-loop, subatmospheric, pressurized water reactor (PWR). The analysis of the BWR was conducted at Sandia National Laboratories while the analysis of the PWR was performed at Brookhaven National Laboratory. This multi-volume report presents and discusses the results of the BWR analysis. The subject of this part presents the deterministic code calculations, performed with the MELCOR code, that were used to support the development and quantification of the PRA models. The background for the work documented in this report is summarized, including how deterministic codes are used in PRAS, why the MELCOR code is used, what the capabilities and features of MELCOR are, and how the code has been used by others in the past. Brief descriptions of the Grand Gulf plant and its configuration during LP&S operation and of the MELCOR input model developed for the Grand Gulf plant in its LP&S configuration are given.

  12. Why operational risk modelling creates inverse incentives

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Doff, R.

    2015-01-01

    Operational risk modelling has become commonplace in large international banks and is gaining popularity in the insurance industry as well. This is partly due to financial regulation (Basel II, Solvency II). This article argues that operational risk modelling is fundamentally flawed, despite efforts

  13. Risk assessment for transport operations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Appleton, P.R.; Miles, J.C.

    1990-01-01

    The world-wide safety of the transport of radioactive material is based on the IAEA Transport Regulations. Risk assessment can provide quantitative data to help in the demonstration, understanding and improvement of the effectiveness of the Regulations in assuring safety. In this Paper the methodology, data and computer codes necessary and available for transport risk assessment are reviewed. Notable examples of assessments carried out over the past 15 years are briefly described along with current research, and the benefits and limitations of the techniques are discussed. (author)

  14. Managing risks and hazardous in industrial operations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Almaula, S.C. [Woodward-Clyde International, Oakland, CA (United States)

    1996-12-31

    The main objective of this paper is to demonstrate that it makes good business sense to identify risks and hazards of an operation and take appropriate steps to manage them effectively. Developing and implementing an effective risk and hazard management plan also contibutes to other industry requirements and standards. Development of a risk management system, key elements of a risk management plan, and hazards and risk analysis methods are outlined. Comparing potential risk to the cost of prevention is also discussed. It is estimated that the cost of developing and preparing the first risk management plan varies between $50,000 to $200,000. 3 refs., 2 figs., 1 tab.

  15. An Improved Distortion Operator for Insurance Risks

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    GAO Jian-wei; QIU Wan-hua

    2002-01-01

    This paper reviews the distortion function approach developed in the actuarial literature for insurance risks. The main aim of this paper is to derive an extensive distortion operator, and to propose a new premium principle based on this extensive distortion operator. Furthermore, the non-robustness of general distortion operator is also discussed. Examples are provided using Bernoulli, Pareto, Lognormal and Gamma distribution assumptions.

  16. Evaluation of thermal overload in boiler operators.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Braga, Camila Soares; Rodrigues, Valéria Antônia Justino; Campos, Julio César Costa; de Souza, Amaury Paulo; Minette, Luciano José; de Moraes, Angêlo Casali; Sensato, Guilherme Luciano

    2012-01-01

    The Brazilians educational institutions need a large energy demand for the operation of laundries, restaurants and accommodation of students. Much of that energy comes from steam generated in boilers with wood fuel. The laboral activity in boiler may present problems for the operator's health due to exposure to excessive heat, and its operation has a high degree of risk. This paper describes an analysis made the conditions of thermal environment in the operation of a B category boiler, located at a Higher Education Institution, located in the Zona da Mata Mineira The equipments used to collect data were Meter WBGT of the Heat Index; Meter of Wet Bulb Index and Globe Thermometer (WBGT); Politeste Instruments, an anemometer and an Infrared Thermometer. By the application of questionnaires, the second phase consisted of collecting data on environmental factors (temperature natural environment, globe temperature, relative humidity and air velocity). The study concluded that during the period evaluated, the activity had thermal overload.

  17. REPUTATIONAL AND OPERATIONAL RISKS IN EUROPEAN BANKS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roxana HERGHILIGIU

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available In the past 20 years operational and reputational risk has become more intriguing due to the public scandals of rogue tranding in banks like Barings Bank, Allied Irish Banks, Enron. The purpose of this study is to find the connections between operational risk and reputational risk. Our research shows that there may be a loss of reputation due to operational loss events. Moreover, every type of operational risk, from internal fraud, external fraud, legal and liability losses, processing errors, information security breaches, inappropriate business practice, physical security breaches conduct to a loss of reputation. The limitations of this paper are represented by the fact that do not have enough data to show the real impact of the reputation risk to the financial results of the European Banks.

  18. Operational risk management for a NPP

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Scott, C.K., E-mail: KScott@AtlanticNuclear.ca [Atlantic Nuclear Services Inc., Fredericton, New Brunswick (Canada)

    2013-07-01

    Organizational failures are a hazard to the successful operation of a nuclear power plant. Risk reduction strategies have been developed around two themes: using an understanding of the nature and mechanism of human failures to eliminate them by modifying work processes; or, modifying human behaviour by creating a strong safety culture that overrides the tendency to fail. This paper examines the problem from the perspective of operational risk management. It includes the internal management of operations and the influence of the external environment on the organization. A model is proposed that encompasses all the operational risk factors in the organization's decision making process. To prevent failure the organization must have the capability to adapt and the capacity to evolve. The hazards that would lead to an organizational failure are developed from this evolutionary model. The operational risk management program would include these hazards as well as the conventional nuclear safety hazards. (author)

  19. Managing Risks in Dry Port Operations

    OpenAIRE

    Ciortescu Cezar-Gabriel; Pãvãla?cu Narcis Sebastian

    2012-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to have an in-depth look into the phenomenon of risk assessment and risk management strategies in managing dry port operations as an integrated part into international containerized freight trade. The fact that world crises take the form of disruptions, bankruptcies, breakdowns, macroeconomic and political changes, and disasters leads to higher risks and makes risk management more and more difficult. This paper aims to discuss the theory behind the dry port concep...

  20. Evaluation of the risk of liver damage from the use of 5-aminolevulinic acid for intra-operative identification and resection in patients with malignant gliomas

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Offersen, Cecilie Mørck; Skjoeth-Rasmussen, Jane

    2017-01-01

    BACKGROUND: The clinical efficacy of 5-aminolevulinic acid (5-ALA) for fluorescence-guided surgery of malignant gliomas is evident from several studies; however, as post-operative elevations of liver enzymes have been seen, there is a potential risk of liver damage upon administration. The aim...... (September 2012-September 2014) at the University Hospital of Copenhagen, Rigshospitalet, was conducted. All patients received a pre-operative dose of 20 mg/kg bodyweight 5-ALA. The pre- and post-operative enzyme levels of alanine aminotransferase, aspartate aminotransferase, gamma glutamyltransferase...

  1. Evaluations and utilizations of risk importances

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vesely, W.E.; Davis, T.C.

    1985-08-01

    This report presents approaches for utilizing Probabilistic Risk Analyses (PRA's) to determine risk importances. Risk importances are determined for design features, plant operations, and other factors that can affect risk. PRA's can be used to identify the importances of risk contributors or proposed changes to designs or operations. The objective of this report is to serve as a handbook and guide in evaluating and applying risk importances. The utilization of both qualitative risk importances and quantitative risk importances is described in this report. Qualitative risk importances are based on the logic models in the PRA, while quantitative risk importances are based on the quantitative results of the PRA. Both types of importances are among the most robust and meaningful information a PRA can provide. A wide variety of risk importance evaluations are described including evaluations of the importances of design changes, testing, maintenance, degrading environments, and aging. Specific utilizations are described in inspection and in reliability assurance programs, however the general approaches have widespread applicability. The role of personal computers and decision support programs in applying risk importance evaluations is also described

  2. Risk management model of winter navigation operations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Valdez Banda, Osiris A.; Goerlandt, Floris; Kuzmin, Vladimir; Kujala, Pentti; Montewka, Jakub

    2016-01-01

    The wintertime maritime traffic operations in the Gulf of Finland are managed through the Finnish–Swedish Winter Navigation System. This establishes the requirements and limitations for the vessels navigating when ice covers this area. During winter navigation in the Gulf of Finland, the largest risk stems from accidental ship collisions which may also trigger oil spills. In this article, a model for managing the risk of winter navigation operations is presented. The model analyses the probability of oil spills derived from collisions involving oil tanker vessels and other vessel types. The model structure is based on the steps provided in the Formal Safety Assessment (FSA) by the International Maritime Organization (IMO) and adapted into a Bayesian Network model. The results indicate that ship independent navigation and convoys are the operations with higher probability of oil spills. Minor spills are most probable, while major oil spills found very unlikely but possible. - Highlights: •A model to assess and manage the risk of winter navigation operations is proposed. •The risks of oil spills in winter navigation in the Gulf of Finland are analysed. •The model assesses and prioritizes actions to control the risk of the operations. •The model suggests navigational training as the most efficient risk control option.

  3. Operational Risk Defined Through a Complex Operating Environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-02-26

    analysis . But the report noted that “CJTF-HOA’s presence in Africa offers benefits such as its ability to respond to contingencies, provide forces for...18 Analysis ...Development JOPP Joint Operations Planning Process NGO Non-Governmental Organization PRC Profitable Risk Control SWOT Strengths, Weaknesses

  4. Risk evaluation for structures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Freudenthal, A.M.; Schueller, G.I.

    1976-01-01

    The basic principles of the risk analysis, which is based on classical statistics is discussed. The significance of the Asymptotic (Extreme Value) distributions as well as the method of basing the level of acceptable risk on economical optimization procedures is pointed out. The application of the risk analysis to special type structures such as fixed offshore platforms, television towers, reactor containments and the reliability of reactor components under creep and fatigue load is elaborated by carrying out numerical examples. (orig./HP) [de

  5. Risk analysis of industrial plants operation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hubert, Philippe

    1989-12-01

    This study examines the possibilities of systematic technology risk analysis in view of territorial management (city, urban community, region), including chronic and accidental risks. The objective was to relate this evaluation with those done for permanent water and air pollution. Risk management for pollution are done for a long time. A number of studies were done in urban communities and regions both for air and water pollution. The second objective is related to management of industrial risks: nuclear, petrochemical, transport of hazardous material, pipelines, etc. At the beginning, three possibilities of effects are taken into account: human health, economic aspect and water, and possibilities of evaluation are identified. Elements of risk identification are presented for quantification of results [fr

  6. Risk based limits for Operational Safety Requirements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cappucci, A.J. Jr.

    1993-01-01

    OSR limits are designed to protect the assumptions made in the facility safety analysis in order to preserve the safety envelope during facility operation. Normally, limits are set based on ''worst case conditions'' without regard to the likelihood (frequency) of a credible event occurring. In special cases where the accident analyses are based on ''time at risk'' arguments, it may be desirable to control the time at which the facility is at risk. A methodology has been developed to use OSR limits to control the source terms and the times these source terms would be available, thus controlling the acceptable risk to a nuclear process facility. The methodology defines a new term ''gram-days''. This term represents the area under a source term (inventory) vs time curve which represents the risk to the facility. Using the concept of gram-days (normalized to one year) allows the use of an accounting scheme to control the risk under the inventory vs time curve. The methodology results in at least three OSR limits: (1) control of the maximum inventory or source term, (2) control of the maximum gram-days for the period based on a source term weighted average, and (3) control of the maximum gram-days at the individual source term levels. Basing OSR limits on risk based safety analysis is feasible, and a basis for development of risk based limits is defensible. However, monitoring inventories and the frequencies required to maintain facility operation within the safety envelope may be complex and time consuming

  7. Evaluating risk management strategies in resource planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Andrews, C.J.

    1995-01-01

    This paper discusses the evaluation of risk management strategies as a part of integrated resource planning. Value- and scope-related uncertainties can be addressed during the process of planning, but uncertainties in the operating environment require technical analysis within planning models. Flexibility and robustness are two key classes of strategies for managing the risk posed by these uncertainties. This paper reviews standard capacity expansion planning models and shows that they are poorly equipped to compare risk management strategies. Those that acknowledge uncertainty are better at evaluating robustness than flexibility, which implies a bias against flexible options. Techniques are available to overcome this bias

  8. Risk Analysis for Unintentional Slide Deployment During Airline Operations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ayra, Eduardo S; Insua, David Ríos; Castellanos, María Eugenia; Larbi, Lydia

    2015-09-01

    We present a risk analysis undertaken to mitigate problems in relation to the unintended deployment of slides under normal operations within a commercial airline. This type of incident entails relevant costs for the airline industry. After assessing the likelihood and severity of its consequences, we conclude that such risks need to be managed. We then evaluate the effectiveness of various countermeasures, describing and justifying the chosen ones. We also discuss several issues faced when implementing and communicating the proposed measures, thus fully illustrating the risk analysis process. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

  9. Managing IT-related operational risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Savić Ana

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Not so long ago, information technology (IT risk occupied a small corner of operational risk - the opportunity loss from a missed IT development deadline. Today, the success of an entire financial institution may lay on managing a broad landscape of IT risks. IT risk is a potential damage to an organization's value, resulting from inadequate managing of processes and technologies. IT risk includes the failure to respond to security and privacy requirements, as well as many other issues such as: human error, internal fraud through software manipulation, external fraud by intruders, obsolesce in applications and machines, reliability issues or mismanagement. The World Economic Forum provides best information about this problem. They rank a breakdown of critical information infrastructure among the most likely core global risks, with 10-20 % likelihood over the next 10 years and potential worldwide impact of $250 billion. Sustained investment in IT - almost $1.2 trillion or 29% of 2006 private-sector capital investment in the U.S. alone fuels growing exposure to IT risk. Greg Hughes, chief strategy officer in Symantec Corp. recently claimed "IT risk management is more than using technology to solve security problems. With proper planning and broad support, it can give an organization the confidence to innovate, using IT to outdistance competitors".

  10. Evaluation of nuclear power plant operator's ability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wei Li; He Xuhong; Zhao Bingquan

    2004-01-01

    Based on the quantitative research on nuclear power plant (NPP) operator's psychological characteristics and performance, the Borda's method of fuzzy mathematics combined with the character of operator's task is used to evaluate their abilities. The result provides the reference for operator's reliability research and psychological evaluation. (author)

  11. Operational Risk Management: Increasing Mission Effectiveness Through Improved Planning and Execution of Joint Operations

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Beckvonpeccoz, Stephen

    1997-01-01

    .... This deficiency should be remedied with the adoption of Operational Risk Management (ORM), an existing process which would provide operational commanders a tool for making smarter risk decisions...

  12. GLObal RIsk MANagement system for plant operations GLORIMAN

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Silverman, Eugene B.

    2004-01-01

    Considerable effort has been expended by nuclear power plants in the preparation of their Independent Plant Evaluation (IPE) programs. The result of these projects is the generation of very useful information concerning plant operations, states, availability and risk. The potential application of this information is often unrealized due to the unwieldy form of the data as reported in the IPE. Plant personnel would benefit greatly from quick access to risk information as a means of supporting day-to-day decisions, but the information exists only in a difficult to understand and inaccessible form. There is a need to translate the costs invested in Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) projects into a useable tool for plant personnel. This paper describes a software tool developed by ARD Corporation to be used by plants to assist in determining the operational risks and benefits associated with modifying the plant state during normal and off-normal operations for performing maintenance. This tool integrates a relational database with an easy-to-use graphical user interface and several unique software features. The result is a responsive, easy-to-understand tool that integrates an organization's PRA/IPE into the operational and maintenance needs of the station. The Global Risk Management System is designed to allow the user to evaluate the risk associated with current and proposed plant states. The impact of changes in plant configuration, operational modes and equipment availability are assessed from a risk management perspective, but displayed in an easy-to-understand form for personnel not familiar with risk methodology. Additionally, pipe and instrumentation drawings can be retrieved by the user and displayed as a reference tool. (author)

  13. Quantifying risk for decentralized offensive cyber operations

    OpenAIRE

    Klipstein, Michael S.

    2017-01-01

    Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited Includes supplementary material. Reissued 7 Sep 2017 with corrections to committee titles. Computer networks and the amount of information stored within government computer networks have become ubiquitous. With the possible decentralization of authorities to conduct offensive cyber operations, leaders and their respective staffs of organizations below the national level cannot adequately assess risks and consequences of these ope...

  14. The Governance of the Operational Risk Indicators

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Angelica Stratulat

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Management has won much its status of science as it is the scientific approach of solving many problems that the leadership of any entity currently has and, as such, it continues to fuel many controversies and debates. Management is the process meant to coordinate, to plan and to control the activities in an organization so as it is able to ensure its goals with maximum efficiency. Under these circumstances, future uncertainties and risks cause revolutionary mutations in approaching most of the economic and social paradigms that humankind were too long accustomed to, so that also the management processes and procedures system is exposed to corresponding changes. Operational Risk Management is not an integrated process but rather a set of fragmented activities that treat and resolve a variety of risks facing the firm/company as a whole, which determines facing the process from a holistic perspective of the whole business.

  15. Mastery of risks and operating safety, risks and efficiencies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2006-01-01

    A proper management of ones risks consists in acting to exert prevention and protection capacities against the negative consequences of an event, but also by committing oneself into an offensive approach allowing to improve efficiency, quality and availability. Safety and efficiencies are mutual reinforcing goals aiming at ensuring the perenniality of industries and services. The implementation of a risk management approach in an industrial environment allows to reach a better reactiveness and to increase the efficiency of a system by the mastery of organization and processes. The activities in concern are those of industries and services: transports, energy and environment, automotive industry, petrochemistry, chemistry, food, space, health, defense industries, telecommunication, mining industry, information systems, textile industry, finances.. The topics approached during this meeting treat of: the relevance of risk-abatement resources with respect to risks criticality; the consistent management of uncertainties with respect to stakes; the mastery of components aging and the expression of aging-dependent availability, maintenance and safety policies; the expression of obsolescence-related renewing policies; the operating safety tools and methods applied to complex and computerized-controlled systems; the integration of social, organizational and human factors in technical decisions and companies management; transverse and global risk analysis and decision-aid approaches; the vigilance culture; crisis anticipation and management; the experience feedback on technical and organisational aspects; efficiency and risk mastery indicators; cost/benefit approach in risk management, and economic intelligence approaches. Nineteen presentations have been selected which deal with the mastery of risks and the operating safety at nuclear facilities. (J.S.)

  16. Track 6: safety and risk management. Plant operational risk management. Plant Configuration Risk Assessment Methodology Development for Periodic Maintenance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yang, Huichang; Chung, Chang Hyun; Sung, Key Yong

    2001-01-01

    As the operation experiences of nuclear power plants (NPPs) in Korea accumulate and NPP safety functions become enhanced, the role of stable and optimal NPP operation within acceptable safety criteria becomes important at present. To accomplish the goal of safe and optimal operation, maintenance and its related activities should be regarded as the issues of most concern. Studies of methodologies for maintenance improvement and optimization have focused on system performance rather than on the hardware itself. From this point of view, the probabilistic methods are most useful. In terms of risk including core damage frequency and unavailability, the cause that might impact plant safety during normal maintenance activities can be identified and evaluated effectively. The results from these probabilistic analyses can provide insightful information for the reallocation of risk-contributing maintenance activity. This information can be utilized in a way that separates the significant risk-contributing maintenance activities from each other unless they are timely related. In Korea, the risk-monitoring program for operating NPPs is under development and will be implemented in 2003. To accomplish the risk-monitoring program objectives, suitable risk evaluation methods should be developed before the implementation of the risk-monitoring program. The plant configuration assessment methodology was developed for these reasons, and this method is to incorporate the field experiences into the risk calculation exactly within the limit of probabilistic methods. During normal plant operation, the plant operational risk changes frequently depending on the status of the plant system and the arrangement of the components. Specific plant systems or components are typically removed from service because of random equipment failure, planned preventive/predictive maintenance, corrective maintenance, surveillance testing, and operational bypass activities, and such events usually impact the

  17. Combining risk analysis and operating experience

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1986-10-01

    In recent years there has been an increasing interest in the systematic utilization of operating experience in the decision making process concerning large industrial facilities. Even before the advent of Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA), operating experience had always played an important role in such decisions. Of course, operating experience has always been an input to PSA also; however, as PSA becomes more mature and the quality and quantity of operating experience improve, greater emphasis is now being placed on the use of operating experience to update and validate PSA and thereby provide a more rational basis for decision making. This report outlines the ways in which data are collected, processed using mathematical techniques and utilized in decision making. It is not intended to provide details of the methods and procedures to be used in these areas, but is rather intended as an introduction to these topics and some of the relevant literature. The meeting presentations were divided into three sessions devoted to the following topics: evaluation of nuclear power plants operational experience (5 papers); uncertainties (2 papers); probabilistic safety assessment studies in Member States (7 papers). A separate abstract was prepared for each of these papers

  18. DEVELOPMENT OF A RISK SCREENING METHOD FOR CREDITED OPERATOR ACTIONS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    HIGGINS, J.C.; O'HARA, J.M.; LEWIS, P.M.; PERSENSKY, J.; BONGARRA, J.

    2002-01-01

    DEVELOPMENT OF A RISK SCREENING METHOD FOR CREDITED OPERATOR ACTIONS. THE U.S. NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION (NRC) REVIEWS THE HUMAN FACTORS ASPECTS OF PROPOSED LICENSE AMENDMENTS THAT IMPACT HUMAN ACTIONS THAT ARE CREDITED IN A PLANTS SAFETY ANALYSIS. THE STAFF IS COMMITTED TO A GRADED APPROACH TO THESE REVIEWS THAT FOCUS RESOURCES ON THE MOST RISK IMPORTANT CHANGES. THEREFORE, A RISK INFORMED SCREENING METHOD WAS DEVELOPED BASED ON AN ADAPTATION OF EXISTING GUIDANCE FOR RISK INFORMED REGULATION AND HUMAN FACTORS. THE METHOD USES BOTH QUANTITATIVE AND QUALITATIVE INFORMATION TO DIVIDE THE AMENDMENT REQUESTS INTO DIFFERENT LEVELS OF REVIEW. THE METHOD WAS EVALUATED USING A VARIETY OF TESTS. THIS PAPER WILL SUMMARIZE THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE METHODOLOGY AND THE EVALUATIONS THAT WERE PERFORMED TO VERIFY ITS USEFULNESS

  19. Qualitative risk assessment for the 100-NR-2 Operable Unit. Revision 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1995-03-01

    This qualitative risk assessment provides information about the 100- NR-2 Groundwater Operable Unit of the Hanford reservation. Topics discussed in this report are: data evaluation; human health risk assessment overview; ecological evaluations; summary of uncertainty; results of both the ecological and human health evaluations; toxicity assessment; risk characterization; and a summary of contaminants of potential concern

  20. Improving Operational Risk Management Using Business Performance Management Technologies

    OpenAIRE

    Bram Pieket Weeserik; Marco Spruit

    2018-01-01

    Operational Risk Management (ORM) comprises the continuous management of risks resulting from: human actions, internal processes, systems, and external events. With increasing requirements, complexity and a growing volume of risks, information systems provide benefits for integrating risk management activities and optimizing performance. Business Performance Management (BPM) technologies are believed to provide a solution for effective Operational Risk Management by offering several combined ...

  1. Maintenance evaluation using risk based criteria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Torres Valle, A.

    1996-01-01

    The maintenance evaluation is currently performed by using economic and, in some case, technical equipment failure criteria, however this is done to a specific equipment level. In general, when statistics are used the analysis for maintenance optimization are made isolated and whit a post mortem character; The integration provided by mean of Probabilistic Safety assessment (PSA) together with the possibilities of its applications, allow for evaluation of maintenance on the basis of broader scope criteria in regard to those traditionally used. The evaluate maintenance using risk based criteria, is necessary to follow a dynamic and systematic approach, in studying the maintenance strategy, to allow for updating the initial probabilistic models, for including operational changes that often take place during operation of complex facilities. This paper proposes a dynamic evaluation system of maintenance task. The system is illustrated by means of a practical example

  2. Evaluation of thermal risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Loos, J.J.; Perry, E.S.

    1993-01-01

    Risk assessment was done in 1983 to estimate the ecological hazard of increasing the generating load and thermal output of an electric generating station. Subsequently, long-term monitoring in the vicinity of the station allowed verification of the predictions made in the risk assessment. This presentation will review the efficacy of early risk assessment methods in producing useful predictions from a resource management point of view. In 1984, the Chalk Point Generating facility of the Potomac Electric Power Company increased it's median generating load by 100%. Prior to this operational change, the Academy of Natural Sciences of Philadelphia synthesized site specific data, model predictions, and results from literature to assess the risk of additional waste heat to the Patuxent River subestuary of Chesapeake Bay. Risk was expressed as the number of days per year that various species of fish and the blue crab would be expected to avoid the discharge vicinity. Accuracy of these predictions is assessed by comparing observed fish and crab distributions and their observed frequencies of avoidance to those predicted. It is concluded that the predictions of this early risk assessment were sufficiently accurate to produce a reliable resource management decision

  3. A Method of Evaluating Operation of Electric Energy Meter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Xiangqun; Li, Tianyang; Cao, Fei; Chu, Pengfei; Zhao, Xinwang; Huang, Rui; Liu, Liping; Zhang, Chenglin

    2018-05-01

    The existing electric energy meter rotation maintenance strategy regularly checks the electric energy meter and evaluates the state. It only considers the influence of time factors, neglects the influence of other factors, leads to the inaccuracy of the evaluation, and causes the waste of resources. In order to evaluate the running state of the electric energy meter in time, a method of the operation evaluation of the electric energy meter is proposed. The method is based on extracting the existing data acquisition system, marketing business system and metrology production scheduling platform that affect the state of energy meters, and classified into error stability, operational reliability, potential risks and other factors according to the influencing factors, based on the above basic test score, inspecting score, monitoring score, score of family defect detection. Then, according to the evaluation model according to the scoring, we evaluate electric energy meter operating state, and finally put forward the corresponding maintenance strategy of rotation.

  4. A Scalable Distribution Network Risk Evaluation Framework via Symbolic Dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuan, Kai; Liu, Jian; Liu, Kaipei; Tan, Tianyuan

    2015-01-01

    Background Evaluations of electric power distribution network risks must address the problems of incomplete information and changing dynamics. A risk evaluation framework should be adaptable to a specific situation and an evolving understanding of risk. Methods This study investigates the use of symbolic dynamics to abstract raw data. After introducing symbolic dynamics operators, Kolmogorov-Sinai entropy and Kullback-Leibler relative entropy are used to quantitatively evaluate relationships between risk sub-factors and main factors. For layered risk indicators, where the factors are categorized into four main factors – device, structure, load and special operation – a merging algorithm using operators to calculate the risk factors is discussed. Finally, an example from the Sanya Power Company is given to demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed method. Conclusion Distribution networks are exposed and can be affected by many things. The topology and the operating mode of a distribution network are dynamic, so the faults and their consequences are probabilistic. PMID:25789859

  5. 12 CFR 932.6 - Operations risk capital requirement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... operations risk capital requirement shall at all times equal 30 percent of the sum of the Bank's credit risk... percent but no less than 10 percent of the sum of the Bank's credit risk capital requirement and market... 12 Banks and Banking 7 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Operations risk capital requirement. 932.6...

  6. Evaluation of real time operating system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Cheol Hoon; Cho, Moon Heang; Choi, In Bum; Lee, Jung Won; Kang, Hui Sung

    2006-02-01

    An hard RTOS used in the Nuclear Power Plants must satisfy severe performance requirements even in a worst case scenario. Since operating systems are becoming more complicated, it is not an easy job to evaluate them. So it becomes more important how to evaluate the RTOS's used in the Nuclear Power Plants. The purpose of this work is to survey design examples and performance models of RTOS's used in the nuclear power plants and based on this survey, develop a evaluation technologies

  7. An operational procedure for rapid flood risk assessment in Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dottori, Francesco; Kalas, Milan; Salamon, Peter; Bianchi, Alessandra; Alfieri, Lorenzo; Feyen, Luc

    2017-07-01

    The development of methods for rapid flood mapping and risk assessment is a key step to increase the usefulness of flood early warning systems and is crucial for effective emergency response and flood impact mitigation. Currently, flood early warning systems rarely include real-time components to assess potential impacts generated by forecasted flood events. To overcome this limitation, this study describes the benchmarking of an operational procedure for rapid flood risk assessment based on predictions issued by the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS). Daily streamflow forecasts produced for major European river networks are translated into event-based flood hazard maps using a large map catalogue derived from high-resolution hydrodynamic simulations. Flood hazard maps are then combined with exposure and vulnerability information, and the impacts of the forecasted flood events are evaluated in terms of flood-prone areas, economic damage and affected population, infrastructures and cities.An extensive testing of the operational procedure has been carried out by analysing the catastrophic floods of May 2014 in Bosnia-Herzegovina, Croatia and Serbia. The reliability of the flood mapping methodology is tested against satellite-based and report-based flood extent data, while modelled estimates of economic damage and affected population are compared against ground-based estimations. Finally, we evaluate the skill of risk estimates derived from EFAS flood forecasts with different lead times and combinations of probabilistic forecasts. Results highlight the potential of the real-time operational procedure in helping emergency response and management.

  8. Risk-Aware Planetary Rover Operation: Autonomous Terrain Classification and Path Planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ono, Masahiro; Fuchs, Thoams J.; Steffy, Amanda; Maimone, Mark; Yen, Jeng

    2015-01-01

    Identifying and avoiding terrain hazards (e.g., soft soil and pointy embedded rocks) are crucial for the safety of planetary rovers. This paper presents a newly developed groundbased Mars rover operation tool that mitigates risks from terrain by automatically identifying hazards on the terrain, evaluating their risks, and suggesting operators safe paths options that avoids potential risks while achieving specified goals. The tool will bring benefits to rover operations by reducing operation cost, by reducing cognitive load of rover operators, by preventing human errors, and most importantly, by significantly reducing the risk of the loss of rovers.

  9. UNIX-based operating systems robustness evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Yu-Ming

    1996-01-01

    Robust operating systems are required for reliable computing. Techniques for robustness evaluation of operating systems not only enhance the understanding of the reliability of computer systems, but also provide valuable feed- back to system designers. This thesis presents results from robustness evaluation experiments on five UNIX-based operating systems, which include Digital Equipment's OSF/l, Hewlett Packard's HP-UX, Sun Microsystems' Solaris and SunOS, and Silicon Graphics' IRIX. Three sets of experiments were performed. The methodology for evaluation tested (1) the exception handling mechanism, (2) system resource management, and (3) system capacity under high workload stress. An exception generator was used to evaluate the exception handling mechanism of the operating systems. Results included exit status of the exception generator and the system state. Resource management techniques used by individual operating systems were tested using programs designed to usurp system resources such as physical memory and process slots. Finally, the workload stress testing evaluated the effect of the workload on system performance by running a synthetic workload and recording the response time of local and remote user requests. Moderate to severe performance degradations were observed on the systems under stress.

  10. Gasbuggy Site Assessment and Risk Evaluation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2011-03-01

    This report describes the geologic and hydrologic conditions and evaluates potential health risks to workers in the natural gas industry in the vicinity of the Gasbuggy, New Mexico, site, where the U.S. Atomic Energy Commission detonated an underground nuclear device in 1967. The 29-kiloton detonation took place 4,240 feet below ground surface and was designed to evaluate the use of a nuclear detonation to enhance natural gas production from the Pictured Cliffs Formation in the San Juan Basin, Rio Arriba County, New Mexico, on land administered by Carson National Forest. A site-specific conceptual model was developed based on current understanding of the hydrologic and geologic environment. This conceptual model was used for establishing plausible contaminant exposure scenarios, which were then evaluated for human health risk potential. The most mobile and, therefore, the most probable contaminant that could result in human exposure is tritium. Natural gas production wells were identified as having the greatest potential for bringing detonation-derived contaminants (tritium) to the ground surface in the form of tritiated produced water. Three exposure scenarios addressing potential contamination from gas wells were considered in the risk evaluation: a gas well worker during gas-well-drilling operations, a gas well worker performing routine maintenance, and a residential exposure. The residential exposure scenario was evaluated only for comparison; permanent residences on national forest lands at the Gasbuggy site are prohibited

  11. Evaluation of BOR-60 operation safety

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Minakov, A.A.; Antipin, G.K.; Efimov, V.N.; Kuzin, G.G.; Eschenko, L.V.; Eschenko, S.N.

    1987-12-01

    In this communication, BOR-60 reactor operation anomalies capable to produce a dangerous overheating of the core (SDC) is examined. On bases of calculations and reactor operation experience an event tree for SDC is built. Evaluations of probable anomalies entering in the event tree and reactor parameters modifications in case of anomalies are presented. In conclusion BOR-60 agree with the sovietic nuclear safety [fr

  12. Operational Risk Assesement Tools for Quality Management in Banking Services

    OpenAIRE

    Dima, Alina Mihaela

    2009-01-01

    Among all the different types of risks that can affect financial companies, the operational risk can be the most devastating and the most difficult to anticipate. The management of operational risk is a key component of financial and risk management discipline that drives net income results, 2capital management and customer satisfaction. The present paper contains a statistical analysis in order to determine the number of operational errors as quality based services determinants, depending on...

  13. Risk evaluation: A cost-oriented approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rogers, B.H.

    1998-01-01

    This method provides a structured and cost-oriented way to determine risks associated with loss and destruction of industrial security interests consisting of material assets and human resources. Loss and destruction are assumed to be adversary perpetrated, high-impact events in which the health and safety of people or high-value property is at risk. This concept provides a process for: (1) assessing effectiveness of all integrated protection system, which includes facility operations, safety, emergency and security systems, and (2) a qualitative prioritization scheme to determine the level of consequence relative to cost and subsequent risk. The method allows managers the flexibility to establish asset protection appropriate to programmatic requirements and priorities and to decide if funding is appropriate. The evaluation objectives are to: (1) provide for a systematic, qualitative tabletop process to estimate the potential for an undesirable event and its impact; and (2) identify ineffective protection and cost-effective solutions

  14. Evaluation of SMART load follow operation capability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Song, Jae Seung; Zee, Sung Quun

    1998-07-01

    The daily load follow operation capability of SMART, which is 330 MWth integral reactor with boron free operation concept, was evaluated. In the boron free operation core the axial offset(AO) can not be limited or limited by wider range than the typical PWR that uses soluble boron. Current SMART conceptual core design does not have the limit for the axial offset and the operation is limited by three dimensional local power peak. In this report, the capability of load follow operation is evaluated for 14-2-6-2 daily load follow by 50% power reduction that is very typical in the large commercial power reactors. The cycle length of SMART is limited by three dimensional local power peak and the nominal axial power distribution is top skewed at the end of cycle. When the power returns to 100%, control rod should be withdrawn for the compensation of reactivity decrease due to the xenon buildup. The control rod withdrawal results in the increase of three dimensional local power peak. To solve this problem, an operation strategy for the control of local peak. To solve this problem, an operation strategy for the control of local peak was established and it was shown that the strategy is effective in controlling the local peak less than target value of the three dimensional local power peak. (author). 7 refs., 5 tabs., 13 figs

  15. Infection Risk in Sterile Operative Procedures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tacconelli, Evelina; Müller, Niklas F; Lemmen, Sebastian; Mutters, Nico T; Hagel, Stefan; Meyer, Elisabeth

    2016-04-22

    The main objective of hospital hygiene and infection prevention is to protect patients from preventable nosocomial infections. It was recently stated that the proper goal should be for zero infection rates in sterile surgical procedures. In this article, we attempt to determine whether this demand is supported by the available literature. We systematically searched the Medline and EMBASE databases for studies published in the last 10 years on the efficacy of infection control measures and carried out a meta-analysis according to the PRISMA tool. We used the following search terms: "aseptic surgery," "intervention," "surgical site infection," "nosocomial infection," "intervention," and "prevention." 2277 articles were retrieved, of which 204 were acquired in full text and analyzed. The quantitative analysis included 7 prospective cohort studies on the reduction of nosocomial infection rates after aseptic surgery. The measures used included training sessions, antibiotic prophylaxis, and operative-site disinfection and cleaning techniques. These interventions succeeded in reducing postoperative wound infections (relative risk (RR] 0.99 [0.98; 1.00]). Subgroup analyses on antibiotic prophylaxis (RR 0.99 [0.98; 1.01]) and noncontrolled trials (RR 0.97 [0.92; 1.02]) revealed small, insignificant effects. A multimodal approach with the participation of specialists from various disciplines can further reduce the rate of postoperative infection. A reduction to zero is not realistic and is not supported by available evidence.

  16. Study of operational risk-based configuration control

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vesely, W E [Science Applications International Corp., Dublin, OH (United States); Samanta, P K; Kim, I S [Brookhaven National Lab., Upton, NY (United States)

    1991-08-01

    This report studies aspects of a risk-based configuration control system to detect and control plant configurations from a risk perspective. Configuration control, as the term is used here, is the management of component configurations to achieve specific objectives. One important objective is to control risk and safety. Another is to operate efficiently and make effective use of available resources. PSA-based evaluations are performed to study configuration to core-melt frequency and core-melt probability for two plants. Some equipment configurations can cause large core-melt frequency and there are a number of such configurations that are not currently controlled by technical specifications. However, the expected frequency of occurrence of the impacting configurations is small and the core-melt probability contributions are also generally small. The insights from this evaluation are used to develop the framework for an effective risk-based configuration control system. The focal points of such a system and the requirements for tools development for implementing the system are defined. The requirements of risk models needed for the system, and the uses of plant-specific data are also discussed. 18 refs., 25 figs., 10 tabs.

  17. Evaluating X-ray absorption of nano-bismuth oxide ointment for decreasing risks associated with X-ray exposure among operating room personnel and radiology experts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Rashidi

    2015-12-01

      Conclusion: It seems that due to higher atomic number and lower toxicity, Bi2O3 nanoparticles have better efficiency in X-ray absorbtion, comparing to the lead. Cream and ointment of bismuth oxide nanoparticles can be used as X-ray absorbant for different professions such as physicians, dentists, radiology experts, and operating room staff and consequently increase health and safety of these employees.

  18. IT Operational Risk Measurement Model Based on Internal Loss Data of Banks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hao, Xiaoling

    Business operation of banks relies increasingly on information technology (IT) and the most important role of IT is to guarantee the operational continuity of business process. Therefore, IT Risk management efforts need to be seen from the perspective of operational continuity. Traditional IT risk studies focused on IT asset-based risk analysis and risk-matrix based qualitative risk evaluation. In practice, IT risk management practices of banking industry are still limited to the IT department and aren't integrated into business risk management, which causes the two departments to work in isolation. This paper presents an improved methodology for dealing with IT operational risk. It adopts quantitative measurement method, based on the internal business loss data about IT events, and uses Monte Carlo simulation to predict the potential losses. We establish the correlation between the IT resources and business processes to make sure risk management of IT and business can work synergistically.

  19. Hazard evaluation and risk management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fritzsche, A.F.

    1986-01-01

    The eigth chapter deals with the actual handling of hazards. The principal issue concerns man's behaviour towards hazards as an individual formerly and today; the evaluation of expected results of both a positive and a negative kind as determined by the individual's values which may differ and vary greatly from one individual to the next. The evaluation of benefit and hazard as well as the risk management resulting from decision-taking are political processes in the democratic state. Formal decision-taking tools play a major role in this process which concerns such central issues like who will participate; how the decision is arrived at; the participation of citizens; specialist knowledge and participation of the general public. (HSCH) [de

  20. Multivariate operational risk: dependence modelling with Lévy copulas

    OpenAIRE

    Böcker, K. and Klüppelberg, C.

    2015-01-01

    Simultaneous modelling of operational risks occurring in different event type/business line cells poses the challenge for operational risk quantification. Invoking the new concept of L´evy copulas for dependence modelling yields simple approximations of high quality for multivariate operational VAR.

  1. Evaluation of the diagnostic performance and operational ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The objectives of the study were (i) to assess the sensitivity and specificity of four on site rapid tests in comparison with Treponema pallidum haemagglutination assay (TPHA) as a gold standard and (ii) to evaluate the operational characteristics of those tests among health workers in a maternity unit. Methods: Four rapid ...

  2. Evaluation of real time operating system

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Cheol Hoon; Cho, Moon Heang; Choi, In Bum; Lee, Jung Won; Kang, Hui Sung [Chungnam National Univ., Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2006-02-15

    An hard RTOS used in the Nuclear Power Plants must satisfy severe performance requirements even in a worst case scenario. Since operating systems are becoming more complicated, it is not an easy job to evaluate them. So it becomes more important how to evaluate the RTOS's used in the Nuclear Power Plants. The purpose of this work is to survey design examples and performance models of RTOS's used in the nuclear power plants and based on this survey, develop a evaluation technologies.

  3. Radiological risks in an operational environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Castagnet, X.; Lafferrerie, C.; Amabile, J.C.; Cazoulat, A.; Laroche, P.

    2010-01-01

    A radiological hazard (e. g. a detonating dirty bomb or accidental radionuclide dispersion) leading to a large number of contaminated or irradiated people needing immediate medical assistance is one of the main threats our troops deployed in an operational environment are facing. Immediate first aid anyway shall take precedence over decontamination but the unique nature of these injuries necessitates specific medical knowledge and training. A contaminated victim needs a rapid -clinical physical and biological- medical evaluation which will determine the amount of required medical support. A person with external contamination needs to be rapidly cleansed to limit spreading surface burns as well as limiting the possible contamination internally spreading into the body. A person with internal contamination requires rapid decontamination at the wound point and antidotes to internally cleanse the body. In France, the Military Health Service has developed a centre of expertise at the Percy military hospital near Paris which is geared up to deal with the victims of radiological attacks. It also has a mobile laboratory equipped with full radio toxicology equipment and body dosimeters to enable rapid and effective results when required. (authors)

  4. Mandatory Disclosure and Operational Risk: Evidence from Hedge Fund Registration

    OpenAIRE

    Stephen Brown; William Goetzmann; Bing Liang; Christopher Schwarz

    2006-01-01

    Mandatory disclosure is a regulatory tool intended to allow market participants to assess operational risk. We examine the value of disclosure through the controversial SEC requirement, since overturned, which required major hedge funds to register as investment advisors and file Form ADV disclosures. Leverage and ownership structures suggest that lenders and equity investors were already aware of operational risk. However, operational risk does not mediate flow-performance relationships. Inv...

  5. Risk mitigation strategies for operations and maintenance activities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-04-01

    The objective of this research was to investigate the application of integrated risk modeling to operations and maintenance activities, specifically moving operations, such as pavement testing, pavement marking, painting, snow removal, shoulder work,...

  6. Credit Risk Evaluation : Modeling - Analysis - Management

    OpenAIRE

    Wehrspohn, Uwe

    2002-01-01

    An analysis and further development of the building blocks of modern credit risk management: -Definitions of default -Estimation of default probabilities -Exposures -Recovery Rates -Pricing -Concepts of portfolio dependence -Time horizons for risk calculations -Quantification of portfolio risk -Estimation of risk measures -Portfolio analysis and portfolio improvement -Evaluation and comparison of credit risk models -Analytic portfolio loss distributions The thesis contributes to the evaluatio...

  7. THE OPERATIONAL RISK MANAGEMENT IN THE ROMANIAN SMEs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roxana Mironescu

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available The prerequisite for the smooth functioning of the business risk management is the correct identification. Basically, identifying business risks is fundamental to determine the optimal level of protection for a given activity. If the risk is underestimated, the protection will be insufficient to cover losses and, if overstated, the cost of protection will reduce the excess proceeds of the activity. The objective of this research was to identify the internal and external major factors which influence the present activities and the future of the SMEs from the North East region The method used in this paper work is based on a questionnaire applied to a sample of 120 top managers coming from various fields of activity, operating on the market for more than two years. The management of information and the data collection was conducted in the late 2013. In the first stage, a total of 35 risks was identified. The further evaluation of the results used the probability and the impact of the identified risks, based on questionnaires and by processing information from the documentation provided by the managers of SMEs taken under the analysis.

  8. Methodology for Designing Operational Banking Risks Monitoring System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kostjunina, T. N.

    2018-05-01

    The research looks at principles of designing an information system for monitoring operational banking risks. A proposed design methodology enables one to automate processes of collecting data on information security incidents in the banking network, serving as the basis for an integrated approach to the creation of an operational risk management system. The system can operate remotely ensuring tracking and forecasting of various operational events in the bank network. A structure of a content management system is described.

  9. Operational risk quantification and modelling within Romanian insurance industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tudor Răzvan

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper aims at covering and describing the shortcomings of various models used to quantify and model the operational risk within insurance industry with a particular focus on Romanian specific regulation: Norm 6/2015 concerning the operational risk issued by IT systems. While most of the local insurers are focusing on implementing the standard model to compute the Operational Risk solvency capital required, the local regulator has issued a local norm that requires to identify and assess the IT based operational risks from an ISO 27001 perspective. The challenges raised by the correlations assumed in the Standard model are substantially increased by this new regulation that requires only the identification and quantification of the IT operational risks. The solvency capital requirement stipulated by the implementation of Solvency II doesn’t recommend a model or formula on how to integrate the newly identified risks in the Operational Risk capital requirements. In this context we are going to assess the academic and practitioner’s understanding in what concerns: The Frequency-Severity approach, Bayesian estimation techniques, Scenario Analysis and Risk Accounting based on risk units, and how they could support the modelling of operational risk that are IT based. Developing an internal model only for the operational risk capital requirement proved to be, so far, costly and not necessarily beneficial for the local insurers. As the IT component will play a key role in the future of the insurance industry, the result of this analysis will provide a specific approach in operational risk modelling that can be implemented in the context of Solvency II, in a particular situation when (internal or external operational risk databases are scarce or not available.

  10. Innovation and employee injury risk in automotive disassembly operations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Neumann, W. Patrick; Winkel, Jørgen; Palmerud, Gunnar

    2018-01-01

    to control injury hazards as part of the development and design process. These cases suggest how failure to manage RSI hazards in the innovation process may allow increases of injury risks that can compromise operational performance. This ‘innovation pitfall’ has implications for operator health...... increased movement speeds and reduced muscular recovery opportunities, implying increased RSI risk. This case study reveals a mechanism by which innovation may increase RSI risks for operators. Managers responsible for engineering innovation should ensure their teams have the tools and mandate necessary......Engineering innovations in car disassembly systems are studied for affects on system operators’ risk of repetitive strain injury (RSI). Objective instrumented measures of injury risk factors with synchronised video-based task analyses were used to examine changes in operators’ RSI risk during...

  11. Evaluation of operating experience with safety values

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bung, W.; Hoemke, P.; Oberender, W.; Paul, H.; Rueter, W.

    1985-01-01

    This report describes statistical investigations of 2076 functional tests carried out on power operated safety valves in conventional power plants in 1972 until 1983 with special regard to Common Mode-Failures. The results clearly show that Common Mode-Failures play an important part of non-availability for the controlled safety valves, especially in the control system. The 'Deutsche Risikostudie' does not consider any Common Mode-Failures of the primary safety valves. However there is no significant increase of the risk resulted by the primary safety valves in the 'Referenzanlage' if the calculated Common Mode-Failures probabilities are considered. (orig.) [de

  12. Risk Perception and Communication in Commercial Reusable Launch Vehicle Operations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hardy, Terry L.

    2005-12-01

    A number of inventors and entrepreneurs are currently attempting to develop and commercially operate reusable launch vehicles to carry voluntary participants into space. The operation of these launch vehicles, however, produces safety risks to the crew, to the space flight participants, and to the uninvolved public. Risk communication therefore becomes increasingly important to assure that those involved in the flight understand the risk and that those who are not directly involved understand the personal impact of RLV operations on their lives. Those involved in the launch vehicle flight may perceive risk differently from those non-participants, and these differences in perception must be understood to effectively communicate this risk. This paper summarizes existing research in risk perception and communication and applies that research to commercial reusable launch vehicle operations. Risk communication is discussed in the context of requirements of United States law for informed consent from any space flight participants on reusable suborbital launch vehicles.

  13. Contract Design: Risk Management and Evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mühlbacher, Axel C; Amelung, Volker E; Juhnke, Christin

    2018-01-12

    Effective risk adjustment is an aspect that is more and more given weight on the background of competitive health insurance systems and vital healthcare systems. The risk structure of the providers plays a vital role in Pay for Performance. A prerequisite for optimal incentive-based service models is a (partial) dependence of the agent's returns on the provider's gain level. Integrated care systems as well as accountable care organisations (ACOs) in the US and similar concepts in other countries are advocated as an effective method of improving the performance of healthcare systems. These systems outline a payment and care delivery model that intends to tie provider reimbursements to predefined quality metrics. By this the total costs of care shall be reduced. Little is known about the contractual design and the main challenges of delegating "accountability" to these new kinds of organisations and/or contracts. The costs of market utilisation are highly relevant for the conception of healthcare contracts; furthermore information asymmetries and contract-specific investments are an obstacle to the efficient operation of ACOs. A comprehensive literature review on methods of designing contracts in Integrated Care was conducted. The research question in this article focuses on how reimbursement strategies, evaluation of measures and methods of risk adjustment can best be integrated in healthcare contracting. Each integrated care contract includes challenges for both payers and providers without having sufficient empirical data on both sides. These challenges are clinical, administrative or financial nature. Risk adjusted contracts ensure that the reimbursement roughly matches the true costs resulting from the morbidity of a population. If reimbursement of care provider corresponds to the actual expenses for an individual/population the problem of risk selection is greatly reduced. The currently used methods of risk adjustment have widely differing model and forecast

  14. Contract Design: Risk Management and Evaluation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Axel C. Mühlbacher

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Effective risk adjustment is an aspect that is more and more given weight on the background of competitive health insurance systems and vital healthcare systems. The risk structure of the providers plays a vital role in Pay for Performance. A prerequisite for optimal incentive-based service models is a (partial dependence of the agent’s returns on the provider’s gain level. Integrated care systems as well as accountable care organisations (ACOs in the US and similar concepts in other countries are advocated as an effective method of improving the performance of healthcare systems. These systems outline a payment and care delivery model that intends to tie provider reimbursements to predefined quality metrics. By this the total costs of care shall be reduced.  Methods: Little is known about the contractual design and the main challenges of delegating “accountability” to these new kinds of organisations and/or contracts. The costs of market utilisation are highly relevant for the conception of healthcare contracts; furthermore information asymmetries and contract-specific investments are an obstacle to the efficient operation of ACOs. A comprehensive literature review on methods of designing contracts in Integrated Care was conducted. The research question in this article focuses on how reimbursement strategies, evaluation of measures and methods of risk adjustment can best be integrated in healthcare contracting.  Results: Each integrated care contract includes challenges for both payers and providers without having sufficient empirical data on both sides. These challenges are clinical, administrative or financial nature. Risk adjusted contracts ensure that the reimbursement roughly matches the true costs resulting from the morbidity of a population. If reimbursement of care provider corresponds to the actual expenses for an individual/population the problem of risk selection is greatly reduced. The currently used methods

  15. Operational safety evaluation for minor reactor accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, O.S.

    1981-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to address a concern of applying conservatism in analysing minor reactor incidents. A so-called ''conservative'' safety analysis may exaggerate the system responses and result in a reactor scram tripped by the reactor protective system (RPS). In reality, a minor incident may lead the reactor to a new thermal hydraulic steady-state without scram, and the mitigation or termination of the incident may entirely depend on operator actions. An example on a small steamline break evaluation for a pressurized water reactor recently investigated by the staff at the Washington Public Power Supply System is presented to illustrate this point. A safety evaluation using mainly the safety-related systems to be consistent with the conservative assumptions used in the Safety Analysis Report was conducted. For comparison, a realistic analysis was also performed using both the safety- and control-related systems. The analyses were performed using the RETRAN plant simulation computer code. The ''conservative'' safety analysis predicts that the incident can be turned over by the RPS scram trips without operator intervention. However, the realistic analysis concludes that the reactor will reach a new steady-state at a different plant thermal hydraulic condition. As a result, the termination of the incident at this stage depends entirely on proper operator action. On the basis of this investigation it is concluded that, for minor incidents, ''conservative'' assumptions are not necessary, sometimes not justifiable. A realistic investigation from the operational safety point of view is more appropriate. It is essential to highlight the key transient indications for specific incident recognition in the operator training program

  16. An evaluation of dental operative simulation materials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Li-Hong; Foster Page, Lyndie; Purton, David

    2012-01-01

    The study was to evaluate the performance of different materials used in dental operative simulation and compare them with those of natural teeth. Three typical phantom teeth materials were compared with extracted permanent teeth by a nanoindentation system and evaluated by students and registered dentists on the drilling sensation of the materials. Moreover, the tool life (machinability) of new cylindrical diamond burs on cutting the sample materials was tested and the burs were observed. Although student and dentist evaluations were scattered and inconclusive, it was found that elastic modulus (E) and hardness (H) were not the main factors in determining the drilling sensation of the materials. The sensation of drilling is a reflection of cutting force and power consumption.An ideal material for dental simulation should be able to generate similar drilling resistance to that of natural tooth, which is the machinability of the material.

  17. Technology Evaluation for Environmental Risk Mitigation Compendium

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meinhold, A.; Greene, B.; Dussich, J.; Sorkin, A.; Olsen, W.

    2017-01-01

    The Technology Evaluation for Environmental Risk Mitigation (TEERM) Principal Center and its predecessor organization the Acquisition Pollution Prevention Program (AP2) supported the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) in identifying technology solutions to risks and costs to NASA programs driven by environmental regulations and requirements. TEERM researched the commercial and government marketplace to locate viable and available technologies that met NASAs needs. TEERM focused on addressing environmentally-driven risks of direct concern to NASA programs and facilities, including hazardous materials in NASA operations and materials that became obsolescent because of environmental regulations. TEERM projects aimed to reduce cost; ensure the health and safety of people, assets, and the environment; promote efficiency; and minimize duplication. Major TEERM and AP2 projects focused on waste minimization and hazardous waste treatment, recycling, corrosion prevention and control, solvent and ozone depleting substances substitution, and aqueous based cleaners. In 2017, NASA made the decision to terminate the TEERM Principal Center. This Compendium Report documents TEERM and AP2 project successes. The Compendium Report traces the evolution of TEERM based on evolving risks and requirements for NASA and its relationship to the Space Shuttle Program, the United States Department of Defense, the European Space Agency, and other public and private stakeholders. This Compendium Report also documents project details from Project Summaries and Joint Test Plans and describes project stakeholders and collaborative effort results.

  18. Simulation-based decision support for evaluating operational plans

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Johan Schubert

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available In this article, we describe simulation-based decision support techniques for evaluation of operational plans within effects-based planning. Using a decision support tool, developers of operational plans are able to evaluate thousands of alternative plans against possible courses of events and decide which of these plans are capable of achieving a desired end state. The objective of this study is to examine the potential of a decision support system that helps operational analysts understand the consequences of numerous alternative plans through simulation and evaluation. Operational plans are described in the effects-based approach to operations concept as a set of actions and effects. For each action, we examine several different alternative ways to perform the action. We use a representation where a plan consists of several actions that should be performed. Each action may be performed in one of several different alternative ways. Together these action alternatives make up all possible plan instances, which are represented as a tree of action alternatives that may be searched for the most effective sequence of alternative actions. As a test case, we use an expeditionary operation with a plan of 43 actions and several alternatives for these actions, as well as a scenario of 40 group actors. Decision support for planners is provided by several methods that analyze the impact of a plan on the 40 actors, e.g., by visualizing time series of plan performance. Detailed decision support for finding the most influential actions of a plan is presented by using sensitivity analysis and regression tree analysis. Finally, a decision maker may use the tool to determine the boundaries of an operation that it must not move beyond without risk of drastic failure. The significant contribution of this study is the presentation of an integrated approach for evaluation of operational plans.

  19. MAPPING FRAUD RISK IN FINANCIAL AUDIT – SALES OPERATIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ioan RADU

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available This paper provides an effective tool «fraud risk map« for organizations and auditors in mathematic assessment procedures, with real, tangible results, regarding the organization’s fraud risk exposure. Overcoming the fade and purely theoretical risk assessment methods («based on professional judgement – risk: high, medium, low«, the paper presents risk indicators as warning signals and quantitative and qualitative methods for risk assessment. Illustrating scalability methods and developping a practical tools for material misstatement of the economic entity financial statements, the case study presented, on sales operations, brigs added value to auditors work in the fraud risk assessment procedures.

  20. Evaluating Grayware Characteristics and Risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhongqiang Chen

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Grayware encyclopedias collect known species to provide information for incident analysis, however, the lack of categorization and generalization capability renders them ineffective in the development of defense strategies against clustered strains. A grayware categorization framework is therefore proposed here to not only classify grayware according to diverse taxonomic features but also facilitate evaluations on grayware risk to cyberspace. Armed with Support Vector Machines, the framework builds learning models based on training data extracted automatically from grayware encyclopedias and visualizes categorization results with Self-Organizing Maps. The features used in learning models are selected with information gain and the high dimensionality of feature space is reduced by word stemming and stopword removal process. The grayware categorizations on diversified features reveal that grayware typically attempts to improve its penetration rate by resorting to multiple installation mechanisms and reduced code footprints. The framework also shows that grayware evades detection by attacking victims' security applications and resists being removed by enhancing its clotting capability with infected hosts. Our analysis further points out that species in categories Spyware and Adware continue to dominate the grayware landscape and impose extremely critical threats to the Internet ecosystem.

  1. Safety evaluation by living probabilistic safety assessment. Procedures and applications for planning of operational activities and analysis of operating experience

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Johanson, Gunnar; Holmberg, J.

    1994-01-01

    Living Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) is a daily safety management system and it is based on a plant-specific PSA and supporting information systems. In the living use of PSA, plant status knowledge is used to represent actual plant safety status in monitoring or follow-up perspective. The PSA model must be able to express the risk at a given time and plant configuration. The process, to update the PSA model to represent the current or planned configuration and to use the model to evaluate and direct the changes in the configuration, is called living PSA programme. The main purposes to develop and increase the usefulness of living PSA are: Long term safety planning: To continue the risk assessment process started with the basic PSA by extending and improving the basic models and data to provide a general risk evaluation tool for analyzing the safety effects of changes in plant design and procedures. Risk planning of operational activities: To support the operational management by providing means for searching optimal operational maintenance and testing strategies from the safety point of view. The results provide support for risk decision making in the short term or in a planning mode. The operational limits and conditions given by technical specifications can be analyzed by evaluating the risk effects of alternative requirements in order to balance the requirements with respect to operational flexibility and plant economy. Risk analysis of operating experience: To provide a general risk evaluation tool for analyzing the safety effects of incidents and plant status changes. The analyses are used to: identify possible high risk situations, rank the occurred events from safety point of view, and get feedback from operational events for the identification of risk contributors. This report describes the methods, models and applications required to continue the process towards a living use of PSA. 19 tabs, 20 figs

  2. Judging risk behaviour and risk preference: the role of the evaluative connotation of risk terms.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Schie, E.C.M.; van der Pligt, J.; van Baaren, K.

    1993-01-01

    Two experiments investigated the impact of the evaluative connotation of risk terms on the judgment of risk behavior and on risk preference. Exp 1 focused on the evaluation congruence of the risk terms with a general risk norm and with Ss' individual risk preference, and its effects on the extremity

  3. Evaluation of risk management and financial performance of BMW Group

    OpenAIRE

    Mysina, Amira

    2017-01-01

    Effective risk and financial management possess a great challenge for the multinational companies operating globally. Despite the increasing development of diverse hedging strategies against foreign exchange risk, global firms cannot fully foresee and measure the degree of the impact of foreign currency fluctuations. This paper aims to evaluate the exchange risk management and financial performance of the BMW Group from the year 2005 to 2016. Moreover, this paper is devoted to provide explana...

  4. Defining the Intrinsic Cardiac Risks of Operations to Improve Preoperative Cardiac Risk Assessments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Jason B; Liu, Yaoming; Cohen, Mark E; Ko, Clifford Y; Sweitzer, Bobbie J

    2018-02-01

    Current preoperative cardiac risk stratification practices group operations into broad categories, which might inadequately consider the intrinsic cardiac risks of individual operations. We sought to define the intrinsic cardiac risks of individual operations and to demonstrate how grouping operations might lead to imprecise estimates of perioperative cardiac risk. Elective operations (based on Common Procedural Terminology codes) performed from January 1, 2010 to December 31, 2015 at hospitals participating in the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program were studied. A composite measure of perioperative adverse cardiac events was defined as either cardiac arrest requiring cardiopulmonary resuscitation or acute myocardial infarction. Operations' intrinsic cardiac risks were derived from mixed-effects models while controlling for patient mix. Resultant risks were sorted into low-, intermediate-, and high-risk categories, and the most commonly performed operations within each category were identified. Intrinsic operative risks were also examined using a representative grouping of operations to portray within-group variation. Sixty-six low, 30 intermediate, and 106 high intrinsic cardiac risk operations were identified. Excisional breast biopsy had the lowest intrinsic cardiac risk (overall rate, 0.01%; odds ratio, 0.11; 95% CI, 0.02 to 0.25) relative to the average, whereas aorto-bifemoral bypass grafting had the highest (overall rate, 4.1%; odds ratio, 6.61; 95% CI, 5.54 to 7.90). There was wide variation in the intrinsic cardiac risks of operations within the representative grouping (median odds ratio, 1.40; interquartile range, 0.88 to 2.17). A continuum of intrinsic cardiac risk exists among operations. Grouping operations into broad categories inadequately accounts for the intrinsic cardiac risk of individual operations.

  5. Operational Risk Management in Financial Institutions: A Literature Review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Suren Pakhchanyan

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Following the three-pillar structure of the Basel II/III framework, the article categorises and surveys 279 academic papers on operational risk in financial institutions, covering the period from 1998 to 2014. In doing so, different lines of both theoretical and empirical directions for research are identified. In addition, this study provides an overview of existing consortia databases and other publicly available sources on operational loss that may be incorporated into empirical research, as well as in risk measurement processes by financial institutions. Finally, this paper highlights the research gaps in operational risk and outlines recommendations for further research.

  6. Comparison of Qualitative and Quantitative Risk Results for Shutdown Operation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oh, Hae Cheol; Kim, Myung Ki; Chung, Bag Soon; Seo, Mi Ro; Hong, Sung Yull

    2006-01-01

    The Defense-In-Depth philosophy is a fundamental concept of nuclear safety. The objective of Defense-In- Depth (DID) evaluation is to assess the level of Defense- In-Depth maintained during the various plant maintenance activities. Especially for shutdown and outage operations, the Defense-In-Depth might be challenged due to the reduction in redundancy and diversity resulting from the maintenance. The qualitative defense-in-depth evaluation using deterministic trees such as SFAT (Safety Function Assessment Tree), can provide 'Safety' related information on the levels of defense-in-depth according to the plant configuration including the levels of redundancy and diversity. For the more reasonable color decision of SFAT, it is necessary to identify the risk impact of degradation of redundancy and diversity of mitigation systems. The probabilistic safety analysis for the shutdown status can provide risk information related on the degradation of redundancy and diversity level for the safety functions during outage. Insights from the both methods for the plant status can be the same or different. The results of DID approach and PSA for the shutdown state are compared in this paper

  7. Prioritization of motor operated valves based on risk importances

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vesely, W.E.; Weidenhamer, G.H.

    1994-01-01

    The plant Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) can be a potentially useful and powerful tool for helping to define an effective response to GL 89-10. The plant PRA can be used to prioritize the Motor Operated Valves (MOV) dynamic test. The plant PRA can also be used to determine test schedules for the MOVs. In order for the PRA to be validly used to respond to GL 89-10, various issues need to be validly addressed. Eleven issues are specifically identified and responses to these issues are outlined. The issues of joint MOV importance, PRA truncation, and validation of the proposed approach are specifically highlighted and more detailed response considerations are described. As in all PRA applications, sensitivity studies and uncertainty considerations should be incorporated in the PRA evaluations. 4 refs, 3 tabs

  8. Risk-based decision analysis for groundwater operable units

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chiaramonte, G.R.

    1995-01-01

    This document proposes a streamlined approach and methodology for performing risk assessment in support of interim remedial measure (IRM) decisions involving the remediation of contaminated groundwater on the Hanford Site. This methodology, referred to as ''risk-based decision analysis,'' also supports the specification of target cleanup volumes and provides a basis for design and operation of the groundwater remedies. The risk-based decision analysis can be completed within a short time frame and concisely documented. The risk-based decision analysis is more versatile than the qualitative risk assessment (QRA), because it not only supports the need for IRMs, but also provides criteria for defining the success of the IRMs and provides the risk-basis for decisions on final remedies. For these reasons, it is proposed that, for groundwater operable units, the risk-based decision analysis should replace the more elaborate, costly, and time-consuming QRA

  9. Evaluation of consequences and risks in Slovenia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Susnik, J.

    1996-01-01

    The paper describes the evaluation of nuclear power plant accident consequences and risks using probabilistic safety codes during the last 12 years at the J. Stefan Institute. They cover classic individual and population risk studies due to assumed potential severe accident scenarios, prediction and estimation of Chernobyl accident consequences, the optimization of emergency countermeasures at the Krsko site, where the 632 MWe Westinghouse PWR NPP went into commercial operation on January 1983, and the ranking of population risk within the public debate in connection with the civil initiative to close the NPP Krsko. We report on the initial use of the CRAC2 code in 1984 and later, when it was first applied for the study of population risk in the area of the second planned Slovenian-Croatian NPP for the Prevlaka site. The study was completed a few weeks before the Chernobyl accident in April 1986. Risk evaluation was also included in the analysis of nuclear safety at the NPP Krsko during the war for Slovenia's independence in 1991. We report on the (CRAC2) analyses of the Chernobyl accident: on initial estimation of the maximal potentially expected consequences in Slovenia, on the effect of the radioactive cloud rise on the consequences relatively close to the NPP; on the further research after the detailed information on the radioactivity release and on the air masses movement were published; then the cloud activity which moved towards Slovenia was assessed and the expected consequences along its path were calculated. As the calculated integral individual exposure to the I 131 inhalation and the ground Cs 137 contamination matched with the measurements in Ljubljana and with the UNSCEAR 1988 data, our reliance on the CRAC2 code and on its ancestors is high. We report on the analyses, performed by the CRAC2 code and since 1993 also by the PC COSYMA code, related to the countermeasure effects. The consequences studied were extended to late health effects. We analyzed

  10. LSST Painting Risk Evaluation Memo

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wolfe, Justin E. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

    2016-11-10

    The optics subsystem is required to paint the edges of optics black where possible. Due to the risks in applying the paint LSST requests a review of the impact of removing this requirement for the filters and L3.

  11. OPERATIONAL RISK IN INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS: TAXONOMY AND ASSESSMENT METHODS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marinoiu Ana Maria

    2009-05-01

    Full Text Available The paper aims at presenting the classifications and the assessment methods for operational risk according to international regulations (ie. Basel 2, in the context of its importance as a managerial tool for international business. Considering the growin

  12. Methodology for Radiological Risk Assessment of Deep Borehole Disposal Operations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hardin, Ernest; Su, Jiann-Cherng; Peretz, Fred(ORNL)

    2017-03-01

    The primary purpose of the preclosure radiological safety assessment (that this document supports) is to identify risk factors for disposal operations, to aid in design for the deep borehole field test (DBFT) engineering demonstration.

  13. Gamma irradiation facility: Evaluation of operational modes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Adesanmi, C.A.; Ali, M.S.; Shonowo, O.A.; Akueche, E.C.; Sadare, O.O.; Mustapha, T.K.; Yusuf, U.; Inyanda, A.K.

    2007-01-01

    The multipurpose Gamma Irradiation Facility (GIF) at the Nuclear Technology Centre (NTC), Sheda Science and Technology Complex (SHETSCO), Abuja, Nigeria is designed as a semi-commercial plant with facilities for research and development (R and D). The design takes into account the different needs of the various research applications which require a wide dose range, a variety of techniques, different product sizes, shapes, mass, volume, densities and types. Programmable doses are used for food irradiation (0.04 - 10 kGy), biological seed mutation breeding and sterile insect technique (STI) (0.01- 5 kGy) sterilization of medical, pharmaceutical and cosmetic products and packages (up to 25 kGy) and cross-linking of polymers (up to 100 kGy). The six different modes of operations (sample elevator, stationary, swiveling, 2-path inner lane and 2-path outer lane and 4-path line) were evaluated. The dose range, mass range and range of irradiation time practicable were established and advantages for radiation processing of food and industrial products were enumerated for the six modes of operations for the first time

  14. A "Toy" Model for Operational Risk Quantification using Credibility Theory

    OpenAIRE

    Hans B\\"uhlmann; Pavel V. Shevchenko; Mario V. W\\"uthrich

    2009-01-01

    To meet the Basel II regulatory requirements for the Advanced Measurement Approaches in operational risk, the bank's internal model should make use of the internal data, relevant external data, scenario analysis and factors reflecting the business environment and internal control systems. One of the unresolved challenges in operational risk is combining of these data sources appropriately. In this paper we focus on quantification of the low frequency high impact losses exceeding some high thr...

  15. The determination of allowed outage time using the evaluation of transition risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kang, D. I.; Kim, K. Y.; Jang, S. C.

    2001-03-01

    he objectives of this study are to propose a new evaluation method for transition risk and to determine the AOT using the new method. We review and compare the evaluation methods of transition risk which was previously studied. We also identify important assumptions used in previous studies for the evaluation of transition risk. We select general items required for the development of evaluation method for the transition risk. Based on the items selected, we propose a new evaluation method for transition risk. The new evaluation method for the transition risk is based on following assumptions; 1)For the same time span, the risk occurred from the failure to the completion of component repair during power operation is the same as the total risk including the risk occurred from power operation to specific shutdown/low power operation and the risk from specific shutdown/low power operation to power operation. 2)Shutdown operation and the repair of components are initiated just after the identification of the failure of components. The evaluation of the transition risk is performed to incorporate the characteristics of shutdown operation into Ulchin Units 3 and 4 Level 1 internal PSA for power operation. The application results of the new method to the HPSIS and the LPSIS for Ulchin Units 3 and 4 show that the AOT of HPSIS is properly determined and the AOT of LPSIS can be greatly increased. In this study, the main factors affecting the determination of AOT using the evaluation for transition risk are identified as the time of shutdown operation, the consideration of the change on common cause failure probability, and the risk of shutdown operation. It is expected that the evaluation method for the transition risk proposed in this study will be used for the determination of AOT and for the decision, in the case of the components unavailable, whether power operation is continuously performed or shutdown operation is initiated

  16. Evaluation of German and international operating experience

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stueck, Reinhard; Verstegen, Claus

    2014-01-01

    The systematic analysis of safety-relevant events in nuclear power plants and their causes is a key driver for the further development of nuclear safety. The findings obtained from the evaluation of operating experience in this respect form the basis for both technical and organisational improvements in the plants as well as for adaptations of technical rules and standards. In its role as Technical Safety Organisation advising the German federal government, Gesellschaft fuer Anlagen- und Reaktorsicherheit (GRS) has been concerned with the detection and analysis of failure mechanisms that underlie events in nuclear power plants at home and abroad since its foundation in 1977. This article provides an overview of the different objectives which are pursued in this context by order of or funded by the Federal Environment Ministry. Here, the focus is on the evaluation of reportable events for the preparation of so-called Information Notices and generic reports as well as for the acquisition of data that can be used for in-depth probabilistic analyses.

  17. Risk-Based Operation and Maintenance of Offshore Wind Turbines

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Jannie Jessen; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    2009-01-01

    For offshore wind turbines costs to operation and maintenance are substantial. This paper describes a risk-based lifecycle approach for optimal planning of operation and maintenance. The approach is based on pre-posterior Bayesian decision theory. Deterioration mechanisms such as fatigue, corrosion...

  18. Operational risk assessments by supply chain professionals : process and performance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tazelaar, F.; Snijders, C.C.P.

    2013-01-01

    We consider the "process-performance paradox" in the assessment of operational risks by professionals in the field of operations and supply chain management (OSCM). The paradox states that although professionals with more expertise tend to decide in different ways, they often do not make better

  19. Operational Risk Management A Practical Approach to Intelligent Data Analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Kenett, Ron

    2010-01-01

    The book will introduce modern Operational Risk (OpR) Management and illustrates the various sources of OpR assessment and OpR mitigation. This book discusses how various data sources can be integrated and analyzed and how OpR is synergetic to other risk management activities such as Financial Risk Management and Internationalization. The topics will include state of the art technology such as semantic analysis, ontology engineering, data mining and statistical analysis.

  20. Building a Natural Disaster Risk Index for Supply Chain Operations

    OpenAIRE

    Kun Liao; Ozden Bayazit; Fang Wang

    2014-01-01

    Risk for an organization is associated with uncertainties in all areas of its operations. As firms move toward global sourcing, supply chain risk increases dramatically, which is linked to lower financial performance and market value. One major type of supply chain risk is disruptions caused by natural or man-made disasters. In this paper, major factors causing supply chain disruptions are identified based on resource dependency theory and contingency theory. As a result of the study, a compr...

  1. User's guide to the repository intrusion risk evaluation code INTRUDE

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nancarrow, D.J.; Thorne, M.C.

    1986-05-01

    The report, commissioned by the Department of the Environment as part of its radioactive waste management research programme, constitutes the user's guide to the repository intrusion risk evaluation code INTRUDE. It provides an explanation of the mathematical basis of the code, the database used and the operation of the code. INTRUDE is designed to facilitate the estimation of individual risks arising from the possibility of intrusion into shallow land burial facilities for radioactive wastes. It considers a comprehensive inventory of up to 65 long-lived radionuclides and produces risk estimates for up to 20 modes of intrusion and up to 50 times of evaluation. (author)

  2. The construction of power grid operation index system considering the risk of maintenance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, Jihong; Wang, Canlin; Jiang, Xinfan; Ye, Jianhui; Pan, Feilai

    2018-02-01

    In recent years, large-scale blackout occurred at home and abroad caused widespread concern about the operation of the grid in the world, and the maintenance risk is an important indicator of grid safety. The barrier operation of the circuit breaker exists in the process of overhaul of the power grid. The operation of the different barrier is of great significance to the change of the power flow, thus affecting the safe operation of the system. Most of the grid operating status evaluation index system did not consider the risk of maintenance, to this end, this paper from the security, economy, quality and cleanliness of the four angles, build the power grid operation index system considering the risk of maintenance.

  3. Treatment of operator actions in the HTGR risk assessment study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fleming, K.N.; Silady, F.A.; Hannaman, G.W.

    1979-12-01

    Methods are presented for the treatment of operator actions, developed in the AIPA risk assessment study. Some examples are given of how these methods were applied to the analysis of potential HTGR accidents. Realistic predictions of accident risks required a balanced treatment of both beneficial and detrimental actions and responses of human operators and maintenance crews. Th essential elements of the human factors methodology used in the AIPA study include event tree and fault tree analysis, time-dependent operator response and repair models, a method for quantifying common cause failure probabilities, and synthesis of relevant experience data for use in these models

  4. How Can Every Organization Manage the Operational Risk?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ferry Jie

    2002-03-01

    Full Text Available This article describe how every organization (generally and Australian Organizations (specifically can manage the operational risks.  Recently, the operational risks are the significant issues in every organization because every organization will suffer from poor operational performance due to risks, failure, and problems such as a number of losses which are likely to be made worse. Basically, the operational risk management process has five steps, identification, analysis, treatment, controlling, and communication/consulting. Generally, many organizations (in particularly in Australia and New Zealand have already used AS/NZS 4360-Risk Management System, AS/NZS 4801-Occupational Health and Safety Management System, ISO 14001: Effective Environmental Management System, ISO 9001: Quality Management System, AS/NZS 7799: Information Security Management, AS/NZS 3806: Compliance Management System for reducing/mitigating/managing the operational risks. Based on the SAI Certification Register, the number of Australian Organizations got the AS/NZS ISO 9000 series, AS/NZS 14000 series, AS/NZS 4801 and AS/NZS 7799.2:2000 Certifications are 3338, 30, 20 and 5 respectively. It can conclude that Australian Organizations prefer used AS/NZS ISO 9000 series rather than AS/NZS ISO 14000 series, AS/NZS 4801 and AS/NZS 7799.2:2000.

  5. Operational Contract Support: Economic Impact Evaluation and Measures of Effectiveness

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-12-01

    NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY, CALIFORNIA MBA PROFESSIONAL REPORT OPERATIONAL CONTRACT SUPPORT: ECONOMIC IMPACT EVALUATION AND MEASURES...DATES COVERED MBA professional report 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE OPERATIONAL CONTRACT SUPPORT: ECONOMIC IMPACT EVALUATION AND MEASURES OF EFFECTIVENESS 5...evaluation, expeditionary economics , operational contract support, measure of effectiveness 15. NUMBER OF PAGES 89 16. PRICE CODE 17. SECURITY

  6. Evaluation of Seismic Risk of Siberia Territory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seleznev, V. S.; Soloviev, V. M.; Emanov, A. F.

    The outcomes of modern geophysical researches of the Geophysical Survey SB RAS, directed on study of geodynamic situation in large industrial and civil centers on the territory of Siberia with the purpose of an evaluation of seismic risk of territories and prediction of origin of extreme situations of natural and man-caused character, are pre- sented in the paper. First of all it concerns the testing and updating of a geoinformation system developed by Russian Emergency Ministry designed for calculations regarding the seismic hazard and response to distructive earthquakes. The GIS database contains the catalogues of earthquakes and faults, seismic zonation maps, vectorized city maps, information on industrial and housing fund, data on character of building and popula- tion in inhabited places etc. The geoinformation system allows to solve on a basis of probabilistic approaches the following problems: - estimating the earthquake impact, required forces, facilities and supplies for life-support of injured population; - deter- mining the consequences of failures on chemical and explosion-dangerous objects; - optimization problems on assurance technology of conduct of salvage operations. Using this computer program, the maps of earthquake risk have been constructed for several seismically dangerous regions of Siberia. These maps display the data on the probable amount of injured people and relative economic damage from an earthquake, which can occur in various sites of the territory according to the map of seismic zona- tion. The obtained maps have allowed determining places where the detailed seismo- logical observations should be arranged. Along with it on the territory of Siberia the wide-ranging investigations with use of new methods of evaluation of physical state of industrial and civil establishments (buildings and structures, hydroelectric power stations, bridges, dams, etc.), high-performance detailed electromagnetic researches of ground conditions of city

  7. Quantitative risk analysis in two pipelines operated by TRANSPETRO

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Garcia, Claudio B. [PETROBRAS Transporte S/A (TRANSPETRO), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Pinho, Edson [Universidade Federal Rural do Rio de Janeiro (UFRRJ), Seropedica, RJ (Brazil); Bittencourt, Euclides [Centro Universitario FIB, Salvador , BA (Brazil)

    2009-07-01

    Transportation risk analysis techniques were used to study two pipelines operated by TRANSPETRO. The Pipeline A is for the simultaneous transportation of diesel, gasoline and LPG and comprises three parts, all of them crossing rural areas. The Pipeline B is for oil transportation and one of its ends is located in an area of a high density population. Both pipelines had their risk studied using the PHAST RISK{sup R} software and the individual risk measures, the only considered measures for license purposes for this type of studies, presented level far below the maximum tolerable levels considered. (author)

  8. Modeling operational risks of the nuclear industry with Bayesian networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wieland, Patricia; Lustosa, Leonardo J.

    2009-01-01

    Basically, planning a new industrial plant requires information on the industrial management, regulations, site selection, definition of initial and planned capacity, and on the estimation of the potential demand. However, this is far from enough to assure the success of an industrial enterprise. Unexpected and extremely damaging events may occur that deviates from the original plan. The so-called operational risks are not only in the system, equipment, process or human (technical or managerial) failures. They are also in intentional events such as frauds and sabotage, or extreme events like terrorist attacks or radiological accidents and even on public reaction to perceived environmental or future generation impacts. For the nuclear industry, it is a challenge to identify and to assess the operational risks and their various sources. Early identification of operational risks can help in preparing contingency plans, to delay the decision to invest or to approve a project that can, at an extreme, affect the public perception of the nuclear energy. A major problem in modeling operational risk losses is the lack of internal data that are essential, for example, to apply the loss distribution approach. As an alternative, methods that consider qualitative and subjective information can be applied, for example, fuzzy logic, neural networks, system dynamic or Bayesian networks. An advantage of applying Bayesian networks to model operational risk is the possibility to include expert opinions and variables of interest, to structure the model via causal dependencies among these variables, and to specify subjective prior and conditional probabilities distributions at each step or network node. This paper suggests a classification of operational risks in industry and discusses the benefits and obstacles of the Bayesian networks approach to model those risks. (author)

  9. Modeling operational risks of the nuclear industry with Bayesian networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wieland, Patricia [Pontificia Univ. Catolica do Rio de Janeiro (PUC-Rio), RJ (Brazil). Dept. de Engenharia Industrial; Comissao Nacional de Energia Nuclear (CNEN), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)], e-mail: pwieland@cnen.gov.br; Lustosa, Leonardo J. [Pontificia Univ. Catolica do Rio de Janeiro (PUC-Rio), RJ (Brazil). Dept. de Engenharia Industrial], e-mail: ljl@puc-rio.br

    2009-07-01

    Basically, planning a new industrial plant requires information on the industrial management, regulations, site selection, definition of initial and planned capacity, and on the estimation of the potential demand. However, this is far from enough to assure the success of an industrial enterprise. Unexpected and extremely damaging events may occur that deviates from the original plan. The so-called operational risks are not only in the system, equipment, process or human (technical or managerial) failures. They are also in intentional events such as frauds and sabotage, or extreme events like terrorist attacks or radiological accidents and even on public reaction to perceived environmental or future generation impacts. For the nuclear industry, it is a challenge to identify and to assess the operational risks and their various sources. Early identification of operational risks can help in preparing contingency plans, to delay the decision to invest or to approve a project that can, at an extreme, affect the public perception of the nuclear energy. A major problem in modeling operational risk losses is the lack of internal data that are essential, for example, to apply the loss distribution approach. As an alternative, methods that consider qualitative and subjective information can be applied, for example, fuzzy logic, neural networks, system dynamic or Bayesian networks. An advantage of applying Bayesian networks to model operational risk is the possibility to include expert opinions and variables of interest, to structure the model via causal dependencies among these variables, and to specify subjective prior and conditional probabilities distributions at each step or network node. This paper suggests a classification of operational risks in industry and discusses the benefits and obstacles of the Bayesian networks approach to model those risks. (author)

  10. Initial 12-h operative fluid volume is an independent risk factor for pleural effusion after hepatectomy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, Xiang; Wu, Jia-Wei; Sun, Ping; Song, Zi-Fang; Zheng, Qi-Chang

    2016-12-01

    Pleural effusion after hepatectomy is associated with significant morbidity and prolonged hospital stays. Several studies have addressed the risk factors for postoperative pleural effusion. However, there are no researches concerning the role of the initial 12-h operative fluid volume. The aim of this study was to evaluate whether the initial 12-h operative fluid volume during liver resection is an independent risk factor for pleural effusion after hepatectomy. In this study, we retrospectively analyzed clinical data of 470 patients consecutively undergoing elective hepatectomy between January 2011 and December 2012. We prospectively collected and retrospectively analyzed baseline and clinical data, including preoperative, intraoperative, and postoperative variables. Univariate and multivariate analyses were carried out to identify whether the initial 12-h operative fluid volume was an independent risk factor for pleural effusion after hepatectomy. The multivariate analysis identified 2 independent risk factors for pleural effusion: operative time [odds ratio (OR)=10.2] and initial 12-h operative fluid volume (OR=1.0003). Threshold effect analyses revealed that the initial 12 h operative fluid volume was positively correlated with the incidence of pleural effusion when the initial 12-h operative fluid volume exceeded 4636 mL. We conclude that the initial 12-h operative fluid volume during liver resection and operative time are independent risk factors for pleural effusion after hepatectomy. Perioperative intravenous fluids should be restricted properly.

  11. Evaluation of health risks related to the operation of the AREVA sites of the Tricastin platform: Georges Besse plants I and II, SOCATRI, COGEMA Pierrelatte and COMURHEX (first level approach) Assessment of health studies. Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mandin, C.

    2006-03-01

    This document reports the study of health risks related to the chemical toxicity of species related to the operation of several AREVA installations in Tricastin. A qualitative and quantitative inventory of the species released in the atmosphere and in waters is based on data supplied by the operator. A selection of health tracers has lead to a global investigation of nitrogen oxides, sulphur dioxide, fluorine, uranium, arsenic, hexavalent chromium, mercury and nickel. The hazard associated with each of these species has been characterized. Different exposure ways have been considered: inhalation, soil ingestion, by vegetable, fruit and crop ingestion, ingestion of meat, milk and eggs produced by local breeding, fish ingestion, and ingestion of water sampled from the Tricastin aquifer. Atmospheric concentrations, soil deposits, surface soil layer concentrations, and other concentrations (in meat, milk, eggs, crops, vegetables, fruits, and drinking water) have been either modelled or measured. Different exposure scenarios have been defined, and the different risks (carcinogen or not) have been assessed

  12. Risk effectiveness evaluation of surveillance testing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, I.S.; Samanta, P.K.; Martorell, S.; Vesely, W.E.

    1991-01-01

    To address the concerns about nuclear power plant surveillance tests, i.e., their adverse safety impact due to negative effects and too burdensome requirements, it is necessary to evaluate the safety significance or risk effectiveness of such tests explicitly considering both negative and positive effects. This paper defines the negative effects of surveillance testing from a risk perspective, and then presents a methodology to quantify the negative risk impact, i.e., the risk penalty or risk increase caused by the test. The method focuses on two important kinds of negative effects, namely, test-caused transients and test-caused equipment degradations. The concepts and quantitative methods for the risk evaluation can be used in the decision-making process to establish the safety significance of the tests and to screen the plant-specific surveillance test requirements. 6 refs., 2 figs., 2 tabs

  13. Risk Assessment for Bridges Safety Management during Operation Based on Fuzzy Clustering Algorithm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xia Hanyu

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available In recent years, large span and large sea-crossing bridges are built, bridges accidents caused by improper operational management occur frequently. In order to explore the better methods for risk assessment of the bridges operation departments, the method based on fuzzy clustering algorithm is selected. Then, the implementation steps of fuzzy clustering algorithm are described, the risk evaluation system is built, and Taizhou Bridge is selected as an example, the quantitation of risk factors is described. After that, the clustering algorithm based on fuzzy equivalence is calculated on MATLAB 2010a. In the last, Taizhou Bridge operation management departments are classified and sorted according to the degree of risk, and the safety situation of operation departments is analyzed.

  14. Evaluation of test intervals strategies with a risk monitor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Soerman, J.

    2005-01-01

    The Swedish nuclear power utility Oskarshamn Power Group (OKG), is investigating how the use of a risk monitor can facilitate and improve risk-informed decision-making at their nuclear power plants. The intent is to evaluate if risk-informed decision-making can be accepted. A pilot project was initiated and carried out in 2004. The project included investigating if a risk monitor can be used for optimising test intervals for diesel- and gas turbine generators with regard to risk level. The Oskarhamn 2 (O2), PSA Level 1 model was converted into a risk monitor using RiskSpectrum RiskWatcher (RSRW) software. The converted PSA model included the complete PSA model for the power operation mode. RSRW then performs a complete requantification for every analysis. Time dependent reliability data are taken into account, i.e. a shorter test interval will increases the components availability (possibility to e.g. start on demand). The converted O2 model was then used to investigate whether it would be possible to balance longer test intervals for diesel generators, gas turbine generators and high pressure injection system with shorter test intervals for the low pressure injection system, while maintaining a low risk level at the plant. The results show that a new mixture of test intervals can be implemented with only marginally changes in the risk calculated with the risk monitor model. The results indicate that the total number of test activities for the systems included in the pilot study could be reduced by 20% with a maintained level of risk. A risk monitor taking into account the impact from test intervals in availability calculations for components is well suited for evaluation of test interval strategies. It also enables the analyst to evaluate the risk level over a period of time including the impact the actual status of the plant may have on the risk level. (author)

  15. Ethical and affective evaluation of environmental risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bohm, G.; Pfister, H.R.

    1998-01-01

    Full text of publication follows: the present paper will be concerned with environmental risk perception, with special emphasis on those environmental risks that pertain to global change phenomena, such as climate change and ozone depletion. Two determinants of risk judgments are investigated that seem particularly relevant to environmental risks: ethical and affective evaluations. It is assumed that the focus of risk evaluation can be on one of two aspects: a) on an evaluation of potential losses, or b) on ethical considerations. We assume that both, potential loss and violation of ethical principles elicit emotional evaluations, but that these two judgmental aspects are associated with different specific emotions. Following cognitive emotion theories, we distinguish loss-based emotions, such as worry and fear, from ethical emotions, e.g., guilt and anger. A study is presented that investigates the role of ethical and affective evaluations in risk judgments. Various environmental risks were presented to subjects, e.g., air pollution, ozone depletion, climate change and destruction of ecological balance. For each environmental risk, subjects indicated in free-response format as well as on rating scales the extent to which ethical principles were violated, and the intensity of both loss-based and ethical emotions. The correlational structure of the emotion ratings confirms the distinction between loss-based and ethical emotions. Risk judgments co-vary with the strength of ethical evaluation and with the intensity of loss-based emotions, but are independent of ethical emotions. The implications of these findings for the risk appraisal process are discussed. (authors)

  16. Approved Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategies

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — The Food and Drug Administration Amendments Act of 2007 gave FDA the authority to require a Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy (REMS) from manufacturers to...

  17. A study on risk perception toward nuclear power operation in Taiwan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee Ciao-tzu; Hu Shiang-ling; Chang, Wushou P.

    2000-01-01

    Currently, more conflicts appear between the public and government over the establishment of the 4th nuclear power plant in Taiwan. In order to improve risk management by the Society, understanding the risk perception of the public will be essential. A pilot study on the risk perception toward nuclear power operation and other current risks was conducted in summer of 1999. In addition to perception towards nuclear power operation, the survey evaluated several dimensions of health-related risks including smoking, chemical wastes, nuclear wastes, air transportation, AIDS, and food intoxication. The questionnaire was designed to be proceeded under systemic instruction and followed with self-filling. 57 (85.1%) of 67 respondents worked at the Taipei Metropolitan Rapid Transportation, including 62 male subjects (92.5%). 44 (69.8%) respondents favored building the 4th nuclear power plant in Taiwan. The acceptable distance between their houses and the nuclear power plant was 145.13 km in average, as compared with 400 km that of North and South of Taiwan. The mean expenses they are willing to pay to reduce the risk of the NPP is about US $7.73, 0.56% of their average income. However, the levels of risks toward nuclear power operation is significant higher than these for air transportation, smoking, and food intoxication. Government's spending is assumed more effective to reduce the threats from risks of nuclear power operation, rather than professional's or experts' effects. Besides, other related factors include levels of involuntary exposure to NP operation (p<0.001) and number of people potentially in danger (p<0.001). These 2 altitudes are positively correlated with the respondents' perceived risks. Different attitudes toward NP operation within these engineers, and those evaluated by others, are of great interest. Further evaluation will be conducted to compare the mechanism involved. We gratefully acknowledge financial support from the National Science Council

  18. A study on risk perception toward nuclear power operation in Taiwan

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee Ciao-tzu; Hu Shiang-ling; Chang, Wushou P. [National Yang-Ming University, Taiwan (China)

    2000-05-01

    Currently, more conflicts appear between the public and government over the establishment of the 4th nuclear power plant in Taiwan. In order to improve risk management by the Society, understanding the risk perception of the public will be essential. A pilot study on the risk perception toward nuclear power operation and other current risks was conducted in summer of 1999. In addition to perception towards nuclear power operation, the survey evaluated several dimensions of health-related risks including smoking, chemical wastes, nuclear wastes, air transportation, AIDS, and food intoxication. The questionnaire was designed to be proceeded under systemic instruction and followed with self-filling. 57 (85.1%) of 67 respondents worked at the Taipei Metropolitan Rapid Transportation, including 62 male subjects (92.5%). 44 (69.8%) respondents favored building the 4th nuclear power plant in Taiwan. The acceptable distance between their houses and the nuclear power plant was 145.13 km in average, as compared with 400 km that of North and South of Taiwan. The mean expenses they are willing to pay to reduce the risk of the NPP is about US $7.73, 0.56% of their average income. However, the levels of risks toward nuclear power operation is significant higher than these for air transportation, smoking, and food intoxication. Government's spending is assumed more effective to reduce the threats from risks of nuclear power operation, rather than professional's or experts' effects. Besides, other related factors include levels of involuntary exposure to NP operation (p<0.001) and number of people potentially in danger (p<0.001). These 2 altitudes are positively correlated with the respondents' perceived risks. Different attitudes toward NP operation within these engineers, and those evaluated by others, are of great interest. Further evaluation will be conducted to compare the mechanism involved. We gratefully acknowledge financial support from the National

  19. Evaluation of a constipation risk assessment scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zernike, W; Henderson, A

    1999-06-01

    This project was undertaken in order to evaluate the utility of a constipation risk assessment scale and the accompanying bowel management protocol. The risk assessment scale was primarily introduced to teach and guide staff in managing constipation when caring for patients. The intention of the project was to reduce the incidence of constipation in patients during their admission to hospital.

  20. Qualitative risk assessment for the 100-HR-3 groundwater operable unit

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vukelich, S.E. [Golder Associates, Inc., Richland, WA (United States)

    1994-09-22

    This report provides the qualitative risk assessment for the 100-HR-3 operable unit on the Hanford Reservation. 100-HR-3 is a ground water unit. The purpose of the QRA at the 100-HR-3 operable unit is to focus on a predefined set of human and environmental exposure scenarios in order to provides sufficient information that will assist the Tri-Party signatories (Washington State Department of Ecology, EPA and US DOE) in making defensible decisions on the necessity of Interim Remedial Measures. Frequent- and occasional-use exposure scenarios are evaluated in the human health risk assessment to provide bounding estimates of risk. The ecological risk assessment consists of an evaluation of the risks to riparian and aquatic receptors which live in or near the Columbia River.

  1. Qualitative risk assessment for the 100-HR-3 groundwater operable unit

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vukelich, S.E.

    1994-01-01

    This report provides the qualitative risk assessment for the 100-HR-3 operable unit on the Hanford Reservation. 100-HR-3 is a ground water unit. The purpose of the QRA at the 100-HR-3 operable unit is to focus on a predefined set of human and environmental exposure scenarios in order to provides sufficient information that will assist the Tri-Party signatories (Washington State Department of Ecology, EPA and US DOE) in making defensible decisions on the necessity of Interim Remedial Measures. Frequent- and occasional-use exposure scenarios are evaluated in the human health risk assessment to provide bounding estimates of risk. The ecological risk assessment consists of an evaluation of the risks to riparian and aquatic receptors which live in or near the Columbia River

  2. Evaluating Robot-Operator Job Performance

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Moses, Franklin L; Brooks, Peter S; Hofmann, M; Johnson, E; Laveson, J; Zaccaro, S

    2007-01-01

    .... Tests that do include performance of the human operator often rely on qualitative observations -- observer judgments and interviews about workload, situation awareness, cognitive issues, and so on...

  3. Dynamic occupational risk model for offshore operations in harsh environments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Song, Guozheng; Khan, Faisal; Wang, Hangzhou; Leighton, Shelly; Yuan, Zhi; Liu, Hanwen

    2016-01-01

    The expansion of offshore oil exploitation into remote areas (e.g., Arctic) with harsh environments has significantly increased occupational risks. Among occupational accidents, slips, trips and falls from height (STFs) account for a significant portion. Thus, a dynamic risk assessment of the three main occupational accidents is meaningful to decrease offshore occupational risks. Bow-tie Models (BTs) were established in this study for the risk analysis of STFs considering extreme environmental factors. To relax the limitations of BTs, Bayesian networks (BNs) were developed based on BTs to dynamically assess risks of STFs. The occurrence and consequence probabilities of STFs were respectively calculated using BTs and BNs, and the obtained probabilities verified BNs' rationality and advantage. Furthermore, the probability adaptation for STFs was accomplished in a specific scenario with BNs. Finally, posterior probabilities of basic events were achieved through diagnostic analysis, and critical basic events were analyzed based on their posterior likelihood to cause occupational accidents. The highlight is systematically analyzing STF accidents for offshore operations and dynamically assessing their risks considering the harsh environmental factors. This study can guide the allocation of prevention resources and benefit the safety management of offshore operations. - Highlights: • A novel dynamic risk model for occupational accidents. • First time consideration of harsh environment in occupational accident modeling. • A Bayesian network based model for risk management strategies.

  4. Qualitative risk assessment for the 100-KR-4 groundwater operable unit

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Biggerstaff, R.L.

    1994-06-30

    This report provides the qualitative risk assessment (QRA) for the 100-KR-4 groundwater operable unit at the US Department of Energy`s (DOE) Hanford Site in southeastern Washington State. The extent of the groundwater beneath the 100 K Area is defined in the Remedial Investigation/Feasibility Study Work Plan for the 100-KR-4 Operable Unit (DOE-RL 1992a). The QRA is an evaluation or risk using a limited amount of data and a predefined set of human and environmental exposure scenarios and is not intended to replace or be a substitute for a baseline risk assessment.

  5. Qualitative risk assessment for the 100-KR-4 groundwater operable unit

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Biggerstaff, R.L.

    1994-01-01

    This report provides the qualitative risk assessment (QRA) for the 100-KR-4 groundwater operable unit at the US Department of Energy's (DOE) Hanford Site in southeastern Washington State. The extent of the groundwater beneath the 100 K Area is defined in the Remedial Investigation/Feasibility Study Work Plan for the 100-KR-4 Operable Unit (DOE-RL 1992a). The QRA is an evaluation or risk using a limited amount of data and a predefined set of human and environmental exposure scenarios and is not intended to replace or be a substitute for a baseline risk assessment

  6. Operational risk management in financial institutions: A literature review

    OpenAIRE

    Pakhchanyan, Suren

    2016-01-01

    Following the three-pillar structure of the Basel II/III framework, the article categorises and surveys 279 academic papers on operational risk in financial institutions, covering the period from 1998 to 2014. In doing so, different lines of both theoretical and empirical directions for research are identified. In addition, this study provides an overview of existing consortia databases and other publicly available sources on operational loss that may be incorporated into empirical research, ...

  7. Reservoir shorelines : a methodology for evaluating operational impacts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lawrence, M.; Braund-Read, J.; Musgrave, B. [BC Hydro, Burnaby, BC (Canada)

    2009-07-01

    BC Hydro has been operating hydroelectric facilities for over a century in British Columbia. The integrity and stability of the shorelines and slopes bordering hydroelectric reservoirs is affected by changing water levels in the reservoir, natural processes of flooding, wind and wave action and modification of groundwater levels. Establishing setbacks landward of the shoreline are needed in order to protect useable shoreline property that may be at risk of flooding, erosion or instability due to reservoir operations. Many of the reservoirs in British Columbia are situated in steep, glaciated valleys with diverse geological, geomorphological and climatic conditions and a variety of eroding shorelines. As such, geotechnical studies are needed to determine the operational impacts on reservoir shorelines. Since the 1960s BC Hydro has been developing a methodology for evaluating reservoir impacts and determining the land around the reservoir perimeter that should remain as a right of way for operations while safeguarding waterfront development. The methodology was modified in the 1990s to include geomorphological and geological processes. However, uncertainties in the methodology still exist due to limited understanding of key issues such as rates of erosion and shoreline regression, immaturity of present day reservoir shorelines and impacts of climate change. 11 refs., 1 tab., 7 figs.

  8. EVALUATING THE SUCCESS OF PEACE OPERATIONS

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Garb, Maja

    Peacekeepers are lightly armed and do not fire except in self-defence; .... communication theories, he assumes that the success of peace support operations is ..... UNAVEM III – United Nations Angola Verification Mission III; UNIFIL –.

  9. Airborne Data Link Operational Evaluation Test Plan

    Science.gov (United States)

    1993-08-01

    This plan describes an end-to-end study of operational concepts and procedures associated with the introduction of electronic data communications between flight crews and air traffic controllers. Full performance controllers from : terminal facilitie...

  10. Risk-based Regulatory Evaluation Program methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    DuCharme, A.R.; Sanders, G.A.; Carlson, D.D.; Asselin, S.V.

    1987-01-01

    The objectives of this DOE-supported Regulatory Evaluation Progrwam are to analyze and evaluate the safety importance and economic significance of existing regulatory guidance in order to assist in the improvement of the regulatory process for current generation and future design reactors. A risk-based cost-benefit methodology was developed to evaluate the safety benefit and cost of specific regulations or Standard Review Plan sections. Risk-based methods can be used in lieu of or in combination with deterministic methods in developing regulatory requirements and reaching regulatory decisions

  11. Incidence, risk factors, and morphology in operating microscope light retinopathy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khwarg, S.G.; Linstone, F.A.; Daniels, S.A.; Isenberg, S.J.; Hanscom, T.A.; Geoghegan, M.; Straatsma, B.R.

    1987-01-01

    A review of 135 consecutive cataract operations identified ten cases (7.4%) of operating microscope light retinopathy. Ophthalmoscopically, these light retinopathy lesions appeared as a focal pigment epithelial change with varying degrees of pigment clumping in the center. Fluorescein angiography accentuated the lesion by demonstrating a sharply demarcated transmission defect, occasionally with multiple satellite lesions. The shape of the lesion matched the shape of the illuminating source of the particular operating microscope used during the surgery. The most significant risk factor associated with the production of these light retinopathy lesions was prolonged operating time. Mean total operating time for the ten patients with light retinopathy was 51 minutes longer than for those without (P less than .0001). Other significant associated factors were the presence of diabetes mellitus (P less than .03), younger age (P less than .05), and the use of hydrochlorothiazide (P less than .04)

  12. Qualitative risk assessment for the 100-FR-1 source operable unit

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Corporation, I.T.

    1994-08-01

    This report provides the Qualitative risk assessment (QRA) for the waste sites associated with the 100-FR-1 Operable Unit. The QRA is an evaluation of risk for a predefined set of human and ecological exposure scenarios. It is not intended to replace or be a substitute for a baseline risk assessment. The QRA is streamlined to consider only two human health scenarios (frequent-and occasional-use) with four exposure pathways (soil ingestion, fugitive dust inhalation, inhalation of volatile organics, and external radiation exposure) and a limited ecological evaluation. The use of these scenarios and pathways was agreed to by the 100 Area Tri-Party unit managers

  13. Dynamic Bayesian modeling for risk prediction in credit operations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Borchani, Hanen; Martinez, Ana Maria; Masegosa, Andres

    2015-01-01

    Our goal is to do risk prediction in credit operations, and as data is collected continuously and reported on a monthly basis, this gives rise to a streaming data classification problem. Our analysis reveals some practical problems that have not previously been thoroughly analyzed in the context...

  14. Operational Risk Management System for SMS and FRMS

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stewart, S.; Koornneef, F.; Akselsson, R.

    2009-01-01

    Chapter 3: Operational Risk Management System for SMS and FRMS The European Commission HILAS project (Human Integration into the Lifecycle of Aviation Systems - a project supported by the European Commission’s 6th Framework between 2005-2009) was focused on using human factors knowledge and

  15. Risks and health effects in operating room personnel

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van den Berg-Dijkmeijer, Marleen L.; Frings-Dresen, Monique H. W.; Sluiter, Judith K.

    2011-01-01

    The objective was to find the factors that pose a possible health risk to OR personnel. Work-related health problems of operating room (OR) personnel were signalled by an occupational physician and preparations for the development of new Worker's Health Surveillance (WHS) were started with a

  16. Risk management of exposure to chemicals under operational conditions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Langenberg, J.P.

    2007-01-01

    The HFM panel has decided to install an Exploratory Team, ET-078, which should advise whether or not a Technical Group (TG) should be established on the subject of risk management of exposure to chemicals under operational conditions. This paper described the context and approach of ET-078.

  17. Planning of operation & maintenance using risk and reliability based methods

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Florian, Mihai; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    2015-01-01

    Operation and maintenance (OM) of offshore wind turbines contributes with a substantial part of the total levelized cost of energy (LCOE). The objective of this paper is to present an application of risk- and reliability-based methods for planning of OM. The theoretical basis is presented...

  18. Risk management for operations of the LANL Critical Experiments Facility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Paternoster, R.; Butterfield, K.

    1998-01-01

    The Los Alamos Critical Experiments Facility (LACEF) currently operates two burst reactors (Godiva-IV and Skua), one solution assembly [the Solution High-Energy Burst Assembly (SHEBA)], two fast-spectrum benchmark assemblies (Flattop and Big Ten), and five general-purpose remote assembly machines that may be configured with nuclear materials and assembled by remote control. Special nuclear materials storage vaults support these and other operations at the site. With this diverse set of operations, several approaches are possible in the analysis and management of risk. The most conservative approach would be to write a safety analysis report (SAR) for each assembly and experiment. A more cost-effective approach is to analyze the probability and consequences of several classes of operations representative of operations on each critical assembly machine and envelope the bounding case accidents. Although the neutron physics of these machines varies widely, the operations performed at LACEF fall into four operational modes: steady-state mode, approach-to-critical mode, prompt burst mode, and nuclear material operations, which can include critical assembly fuel loading. The operational sequences of each mode are very nearly identical, whether operated on one assembly machine or another. The use of an envelope approach to accident analysis is facilitated by the use of classes of operations and the use of bounding case consequence analysis. A simple fault tree analysis of operational modes helps resolve which operations are sensitive to human error and which are initiated by hardware of software failures. Where possible, these errors and failures are blocked by TSR LCOs. Future work will determine the probability of accidents with various initiators

  19. D ampersand D screening risk evaluation guidance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Robers, S.K.; Golden, K.M.; Wollert, D.A.

    1995-09-01

    The Screening Risk Evaluation (SRE) guidance document is a set of guidelines provided for the uniform implementation of SREs performed on decontamination and decommissioning (D ampersand D) facilities. Although this method has been developed for D ampersand D facilities, it can be used for transition (EM-60) facilities as well. The SRE guidance produces screening risk scores reflecting levels of risk through the use of risk ranking indices. Five types of possible risk are calculated from the SRE: current releases, worker exposures, future releases, physical hazards, and criticality. The Current Release Index (CRI) calculates the current risk to human health and the environment, exterior to the building, from ongoing or probable releases within a one-year time period. The Worker Exposure Index (WEI) calculates the current risk to workers, occupants and visitors inside contaminated D ampersand D facilities due to contaminant exposure. The Future Release Index (FRI) calculates the hypothetical risk of future releases of contaminants, after one year, to human health and the environment. The Physical Hazards Index (PHI) calculates the risks to human health due to factors other than that of contaminants. Criticality is approached as a modifying factor to the entire SRE, due to the fact that criticality issues are strictly regulated under DOE. Screening risk results will be tabulated in matrix form, and Total Risk will be calculated (weighted equation) to produce a score on which to base early action recommendations. Other recommendations from the screening risk scores will be made based either on individual index scores or from reweighted Total Risk calculations. All recommendations based on the SRE will be made based on a combination of screening risk scores, decision drivers, and other considerations, as determined on a project-by-project basis

  20. D & D screening risk evaluation guidance

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Robers, S.K.; Golden, K.M.; Wollert, D.A.

    1995-09-01

    The Screening Risk Evaluation (SRE) guidance document is a set of guidelines provided for the uniform implementation of SREs performed on decontamination and decommissioning (D&D) facilities. Although this method has been developed for D&D facilities, it can be used for transition (EM-60) facilities as well. The SRE guidance produces screening risk scores reflecting levels of risk through the use of risk ranking indices. Five types of possible risk are calculated from the SRE: current releases, worker exposures, future releases, physical hazards, and criticality. The Current Release Index (CRI) calculates the current risk to human health and the environment, exterior to the building, from ongoing or probable releases within a one-year time period. The Worker Exposure Index (WEI) calculates the current risk to workers, occupants and visitors inside contaminated D&D facilities due to contaminant exposure. The Future Release Index (FRI) calculates the hypothetical risk of future releases of contaminants, after one year, to human health and the environment. The Physical Hazards Index (PHI) calculates the risks to human health due to factors other than that of contaminants. Criticality is approached as a modifying factor to the entire SRE, due to the fact that criticality issues are strictly regulated under DOE. Screening risk results will be tabulated in matrix form, and Total Risk will be calculated (weighted equation) to produce a score on which to base early action recommendations. Other recommendations from the screening risk scores will be made based either on individual index scores or from reweighted Total Risk calculations. All recommendations based on the SRE will be made based on a combination of screening risk scores, decision drivers, and other considerations, as determined on a project-by-project basis.

  1. A Risk Assessment Architecture for Enhanced Engine Operation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Litt, Jonathan S.; Sharp. Lauren M.; Guo, Ten-Huei

    2010-01-01

    On very rare occasions, in-flight emergencies have occurred that required the pilot to utilize the aircraft's capabilities to the fullest extent possible, sometimes using actuators in ways for which they were not intended. For instance, when flight control has been lost due to damage to the hydraulic systems, pilots have had to use engine thrust to maneuver the plane to the ground and in for a landing. To assist the pilot in these situations, research is being performed to enhance the engine operation by making it more responsive or able to generate more thrust. Enabled by modification of the propulsion control, enhanced engine operation can increase the probability of a safe landing during an inflight emergency. However, enhanced engine operation introduces risk as the nominal control limits, such as those on shaft speed, temperature, and acceleration, are exceeded. Therefore, an on-line tool for quantifying this risk must be developed to ensure that the use of an enhanced control mode does not actually increase the overall danger to the aircraft. This paper describes an architecture for the implementation of this tool. It describes the type of data and algorithms required and the information flow, and how the risk based on engine component lifing and operability for enhanced operation is determined.

  2. Research on psychological evaluation method for nuclear power plant operators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fang Xiang; He Xuhong; Zhao Bingquan

    2007-01-01

    The qualitative and quantitative psychology evaluation methods to the nuclear power plant operators were analyzed and discussed in the paper. The comparison analysis to the scope and result of application was carried out between method of outline figure fitted and method of fuzzy synthetic evaluation. The research results can be referenced to the evaluation of nuclear power plant operators. (authors)

  3. Issues in Value-at-Risk Modeling and Evaluation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    J. Daníelsson (Jón); C.G. de Vries (Casper); B.N. Jorgensen (Bjørn); P.F. Christoffersen (Peter); F.X. Diebold (Francis); T. Schuermann (Til); J.A. Lopez (Jose); B. Hirtle (Beverly)

    1998-01-01

    textabstractDiscusses the issues in value-at-risk modeling and evaluation. Value of value at risk; Horizon problems and extreme events in financial risk management; Methods of evaluating value-at-risk estimates.

  4. Probabilistic Risk Assessment for Decision Making During Spacecraft Operations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meshkat, Leila

    2009-01-01

    Decisions made during the operational phase of a space mission often have significant and immediate consequences. Without the explicit consideration of the risks involved and their representation in a solid model, it is very likely that these risks are not considered systematically in trade studies. Wrong decisions during the operational phase of a space mission can lead to immediate system failure whereas correct decisions can help recover the system even from faulty conditions. A problem of special interest is the determination of the system fault protection strategies upon the occurrence of faults within the system. Decisions regarding the fault protection strategy also heavily rely on a correct understanding of the state of the system and an integrated risk model that represents the various possible scenarios and their respective likelihoods. Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) modeling is applicable to the full lifecycle of a space mission project, from concept development to preliminary design, detailed design, development and operations. The benefits and utilities of the model, however, depend on the phase of the mission for which it is used. This is because of the difference in the key strategic decisions that support each mission phase. The focus of this paper is on describing the particular methods used for PRA modeling during the operational phase of a spacecraft by gleaning insight from recently conducted case studies on two operational Mars orbiters. During operations, the key decisions relate to the commands sent to the spacecraft for any kind of diagnostics, anomaly resolution, trajectory changes, or planning. Often, faults and failures occur in the parts of the spacecraft but are contained or mitigated before they can cause serious damage. The failure behavior of the system during operations provides valuable data for updating and adjusting the related PRA models that are built primarily based on historical failure data. The PRA models, in turn

  5. Evaluating operational vacuum for landfill biogas extraction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fabbricino, Massimiliano

    2007-01-01

    This manuscript proposes a practical methodology for estimating the operational vacuum for landfill biogas extraction from municipal landfills. The procedure is based on two sub-models which simulate landfill gas production from organic waste decomposition and distribution of gas pressure and gas movement induced by suction at a blower station. The two models are coupled in a single mass balance equation, obtaining a relationship between the operational vacuum and the amount of landfill gas that can be extracted from an assigned system of vertical wells. To better illustrate the procedure, it is applied to a case study, where a good agreement between simulated and measured data, within +/- 30%, is obtained.

  6. Reliability evaluation of a port oil transportation system in variable operation conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Soszynska, Joanna

    2006-01-01

    The semi-Markov model of the system operation processes is proposed and its selected parameters are determined. The series 'm out of k n ' multi-state system is considered and its reliability and risk characteristics are found. Next, the joint model of the system operation process and the system multi-state reliability and risk is constructed. Moreover, reliability and risk evaluation of the multi-state series 'm out of k n ' system in its operation process is applied to the port oil transportation system

  7. Reliability evaluation of a port oil transportation system in variable operation conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Soszynska, Joanna [Department of Mathematics, Gdynia Maritime University, ul. Morska 83, 81-225 Gdynia (Poland)]. E-mail: joannas@am.gdynia.pl

    2006-04-15

    The semi-Markov model of the system operation processes is proposed and its selected parameters are determined. The series 'm out of k {sub n}' multi-state system is considered and its reliability and risk characteristics are found. Next, the joint model of the system operation process and the system multi-state reliability and risk is constructed. Moreover, reliability and risk evaluation of the multi-state series 'm out of k {sub n}' system in its operation process is applied to the port oil transportation system.

  8. Evaluation Method of Collision Risk by Using True Motion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hayama Imazu

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available It is necessary to develop a useful application to use big data like as AIS for safety and efficiency of ship operation. AIS is very useful system to collect targets information, but this information is not effective use yet. The evaluation method of collision risk is one of the cause disturb. Usually the collision risk of ship is evaluated by the value of the Closest Point of Approach (CPA which is related to a relative motion. So, it becomes difficult to find out a safety pass in a congested water. Here, Line of Predicted Collision (LOPC and Obstacle Zone by Target (OZT for evaluation of collision risk are introduced, these values are related to a true motion and it became visible of dangerous place, so it will make easy to find out a safety pass in a congested water.

  9. Nuclear risk and optimal civil liability of the operator

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schmitt, Andre; Spaeter, Sandrine

    2007-01-01

    The civil liability of nuclear operators are regulated by two sets of international Conventions. In particular, strict liability, limited financial responsibility and the obligation of providing financial guaranties are imposed to the nuclear operator by the Paris Convention and the Vienna Convention. Then national legislations are free to increase the financial cap of responsibility fixed by the international regimes. First we present the main elements of these Conventions. Then we focus on the impact of a modification in the amount of responsibility of the nuclear operator on his risk mitigation policy and on his financial condition. In particular we show that an increase of the cap beyond a given level determined by the model gives the operator some incentives to lessen the investment in prevention, contrary to what is expected. Besides, the impact of the preventive activities done by the firm on its financial constraint depends on the sensitivity of the risk distribution to the variation of the prevention level: The risk mitigation activities must be discussed with respect to the severity of the incidents and/or to the size of the nuclear park

  10. Designing and operating infrastructure for nonstationary flood risk management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doss-Gollin, J.; Farnham, D. J.; Lall, U.

    2017-12-01

    Climate exhibits organized low-frequency and regime-like variability at multiple time scales, causing the risk associated with climate extremes such as floods and droughts to vary in time. Despite broad recognition of this nonstationarity, there has been little theoretical development of ideas for the design and operation of infrastructure considering the regime structure of such changes and their potential predictability. We use paleo streamflow reconstructions to illustrate an approach to the design and operation of infrastructure to address nonstationary flood and drought risk. Specifically, we consider the tradeoff between flood control and conservation storage, and develop design and operation principles for allocating these storage volumes considering both a m-year project planning period and a n-year historical sampling record. As n increases, the potential uncertainty in probabilistic estimates of the return periods associated with the T-year extreme event decreases. As the duration m of the future operation period decreases, the uncertainty associated with the occurrence of the T-year event also increases. Finally, given the quasi-periodic nature of the system it may be possible to offer probabilistic predictions of the conditions in the m-year future period, especially if m is small. In the context of such predictions, one can consider that a m-year prediction may have lower bias, but higher variance, than would be associated with using a stationary estimate from the preceding n years. This bias-variance trade-off, and the potential for considering risk management for multiple values of m, provides an interesting system design challenge. We use wavelet-based simulation models in a Bayesian framework to estimate these biases and uncertainty distributions and devise a risk-optimized decision rule for the allocation of flood and conservation storage. The associated theoretical development also provides a methodology for the sizing of storage for new

  11. AIRMEN AS BOLD RISK TAKERS REDEFINING RISK TO ACHIEVE OPERATIONAL AGILITY

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-04-15

    scenarios27, and emotion tends to cloud perceptions of risk.28 Also, as the frequency of feedback on a given situation increases, aversion to loss...are not brand new or emerging technology such that there is still limited intelligence on them—do not significantly increase operational risk. Those

  12. Evaluating Process Effectiveness to Reduce Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shepherd, Christena C.

    2017-01-01

    security; loss of confidence in government; failure of publicly funded projects; damage to the environment; ethics violations, and the list goes on; with local, national and even international consequences. The Plan-Do-Check-Act process, also known as the "process approach" can be used at any time to establish and standardize a process, and it can also be used to check periodically for "process creep" (i.e., informal, unauthorized changes that have occurred over time), any necessary updates and improvements. While ISO 9001 compliance is not mandated for all government agencies, if interpreted correctly, it can be useful in establishing a framework and implementing effective management systems and processes.4 Another method that can be used to evaluate effectiveness is the scorecard definitions in Mallory's Process Management Standard5 as a basis for evaluating work on the process level on effective, and continuously improved and improving processes. With processes on the lower end of the scale, agencies are vulnerable to a great many risks, with employees and managers making up many of the rules as they go, leading to the above listed negative results. Without clear guidance for nominal operations, off-nominal situations can, and do, increase the likelihood of chaos. In an increasingly technical environment, with inter-agency communication and collaboration becoming the norm, agencies need to come to grips with the fact that processes can become rapidly outdated, and that the technical community should take on an increased role in the maturation of the agency's processes. Industry has long known that effective processes are also efficient, and process improvement methods such as Kaizen, Lean, Six Sigma, 5S, and mistake proofing lead to increased productivity, improved quality, and decreased cost. Again, government agencies have different concerns, but inefficiencies and mistakes can have dire and wide reaching consequences for the public that they serve. While no one goes

  13. PSA-based evaluation and rating of operational events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gomez Cobo, A.

    1997-01-01

    The presentation discusses the PSA-based evaluation and rating of operational events, including the following: historical background, procedures for event evaluation using PSA, use of PSA for event rating, current activities

  14. Cost Model for Risk Assessment of Company Operation in Audit

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. V.

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available This article explores the approach to assessing the risk of company activities termination by building a cost model. This model gives auditors information on managers’ understanding of factors influencing change in the value of assets and liabilities, and the methods to identify it in more effective and reliable ways. Based on this information, the auditor can assess the adequacy of use of the assumption on continuity of company operation by management personnel when preparing financial statements. Financial uncertainty entails real manifestations of factors creating risks of the occurrence of costs, revenue losses due their manifestations, which in the long run can be a reason for termination of company operation, and, therefore, need to be foreseen in the auditor’s assessment of the adequacy of use of the continuity assumption when preparing financial statements by company management. The purpose of the study is to explore and develop a methodology for use of cost models to assess the risk of termination of company operation in audit. The issue of methodology for assessing the audit risk through analyzing methods for company valuation has not been dealt with. The review of methodologies for assessing the risks of termination of company operation in course of audit gives grounds for the conclusion that use of cost models can be an effective methodology for identification and assessment of such risks. The analysis of the above methods gives understanding of the existing system for company valuation, integrated into the management system, and the consequences of its use, i. e. comparison of the asset price data with the accounting data and the market value of the asset data. Overvalued or undervalued company assets may be a sign of future sale or liquidation of a company, which may signal on high probability of termination of company operation. A wrong choice or application of valuation methods can be indicative of the risk of non

  15. Improving Operational Risk Management Using Business Performance Management Technologies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bram Pieket Weeserik

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Operational Risk Management (ORM comprises the continuous management of risks resulting from: human actions, internal processes, systems, and external events. With increasing requirements, complexity and a growing volume of risks, information systems provide benefits for integrating risk management activities and optimizing performance. Business Performance Management (BPM technologies are believed to provide a solution for effective Operational Risk Management by offering several combined technologies including: work flow, data warehousing, (advanced analytics, reporting and dashboards. BPM technologies can be integrated with an organization’s Planning & Control cycle and related to strategic objectives. This manuscript aims to show how ORM can benefit from BPM technologies via the development and practical validation of a new maturity model. The B4ORM maturity model was developed following the Design Science Research approach. The maturity model relates specific maturity levels of ORM processes with BPM technologies applicable for a specific maturity stage. There appears to be a strong relationship (0.78 with ORM process maturity and supporting BPM technologies. The B4ORM maturity model as described in this manuscript provides an ideal path of BPM technologies related to six distinctive stages of ORM, leading towards technologies suitable for continuous improvement of ORM processes and organization-wide integration.

  16. Risk analysis for autonomous underwater vehicle operations in extreme environments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brito, Mario Paulo; Griffiths, Gwyn; Challenor, Peter

    2010-12-01

    Autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs) are used increasingly to explore hazardous marine environments. Risk assessment for such complex systems is based on subjective judgment and expert knowledge as much as on hard statistics. Here, we describe the use of a risk management process tailored to AUV operations, the implementation of which requires the elicitation of expert judgment. We conducted a formal judgment elicitation process where eight world experts in AUV design and operation were asked to assign a probability of AUV loss given the emergence of each fault or incident from the vehicle's life history of 63 faults and incidents. After discussing methods of aggregation and analysis, we show how the aggregated risk estimates obtained from the expert judgments were used to create a risk model. To estimate AUV survival with mission distance, we adopted a statistical survival function based on the nonparametric Kaplan-Meier estimator. We present theoretical formulations for the estimator, its variance, and confidence limits. We also present a numerical example where the approach is applied to estimate the probability that the Autosub3 AUV would survive a set of missions under Pine Island Glacier, Antarctica in January-March 2009. © 2010 Society for Risk Analysis.

  17. Risk analysis of releases from accidents during mid-loop operation at Surry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jo, J.; Lin, C.C.; Nimnual, S.; Mubayi, V.; Neymotin, L.

    1992-11-01

    Studies and operating experience suggest that the risk of severe accidents during low power operation and/or shutdown (LP/S) conditions could be a significant fraction of the risk at full power operation. Two studies have begun at the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) to evaluate the severe accident progression from a risk perspective during these conditions: One at the Brookhaven National Laboratory for the Surry plant, a pressurized water reactor (PWR), and the other at the Sandia National Laboratories for the Grand Gulf plant, a boiling water reactor (BWR). Each of the studies consists of three linked, but distinct, components: a Level I probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) of the initiating events, systems analysis, and accident sequences leading to core damage; a Level 2/3 analysis of accident progression, fuel damage, releases, containment performance, source term and consequences-off-site and on-site; and a detailed Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) of actions relevant to plant conditions during LP/S operations. This paper summarizes the approach taken for the Level 2/3 analysis at Surry and provides preliminary results on the risk of releases and consequences for one plant operating state, mid-loop operation, during shutdown

  18. Managing Climate Risk. Integrating Adaptation into World Bank Group Operations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van Aalst, M.

    2006-08-01

    Climate change is already taking place, and further changes are inevitable. Developing countries, and particularly the poorest people in these countries, are most at risk. The impacts result not only from gradual changes in temperature and sea level but also, in particular, from increased climate variability and extremes, including more intense floods, droughts, and storms. These changes are already having major impacts on the economic performance of developing countries and on the lives and livelihoods of millions of poor people around the world. Climate change thus directly affects the World Bank Group's mission of eradicating poverty. It also puts at risk many projects in a wide range of sectors, including infrastructure, agriculture, human health, water resources, and environment. The risks include physical threats to the investments, potential underperformance, and the possibility that projects will indirectly contribute to rising vulnerability by, for example, triggering investment and settlement in high-risk areas. The way to address these concerns is not to separate climate change adaptation from other priorities but to integrate comprehensive climate risk management into development planning, programs, and projects. While there is a great need to heighten awareness of climate risk in Bank work, a large body of experience on climate risk management is already available, in analytical work, in country dialogues, and in a growing number of investment projects. This operational experience highlights the general ingredients for successful integration of climate risk management into the mainstream development agenda: getting the right sectoral departments and senior policy makers involved; incorporating risk management into economic planning; engaging a wide range of nongovernmental actors (businesses, nongovernmental organizations, communities, and so on); giving attention to regulatory issues; and choosing strategies that will pay off immediately under current

  19. Operational risk: A Basel II++ step before Basel III

    OpenAIRE

    Guegan , Dominique; Hassani , Bertrand

    2011-01-01

    URL des Documents de travail : http://ces.univ-paris1.fr/cesdp/cesdp2012.html An article based on this working paper is published in Journal of Risk Management in Financial Institutions, 2012/13, Volume 6, 37-53; Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 2011.53 - ISSN : 1955-611X - Version originale Septembre 2011, révisée en Juillet 2012; Following Banking Committee on Banking Supervision, operational risk quantification is based on the Basel matrix which enables sorting inc...

  20. [Pre-operation evaluation and intra-operation management of cochlear implantation].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Dao-xing; Hu, Bao-hua; Xiao, Yu-li; Shi, Bo-ning

    2004-10-01

    To summarize pre-operation evaluation experiences in cochlear implantation. Performing auditory evaluation and image analysis seriously in 158 severe hearing loss or total deaf cases before cochlear implantation, comparing their performance with the findings during and post operation. Among the total 158 cases, 116 cases with normal structure, 42 cases with the abnormal findings of the inner or middle ear. Stapedial gusher happened in 6 cases, 1 case was not predicted before operation. Except 1 case with serious malformation, the findings of other 157 cases in operation were consistent with the pre-operation evaluation. We helped all patients reconstruct auditory conduction with cochlear implantation, and the average hearing level up to 37.6 dB SPL. Performing image analysis seriously before operation and planning for operation according to HRCT can do great help to cochlear implantation. The operation under the HRCT instruction has less complications.

  1. Risk evaluation of accident management strategies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dingman, S.; Camp, A.

    1992-01-01

    The use of Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) methods to evaluate accident management strategies in nuclear power plants discussed in this paper. The PRA framework allows an integrated evaluation to be performed to give the full implications of a particular strategy. The methodology is demonstrated for a particular accident management strategy, intentional depressurization of the reactor coolant system to avoid containment pressurization during the ejection of molten debris at vessel breach

  2. [Conflict matrix : Risk management tool in the operating room].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andel, D; Markstaller, K; Andel, H

    2017-05-01

    In business conflicts have long been known to have a negative effect on costs and team performance. In medicine this aspect has been widely neglected, especially when optimizing processes for operating room (OR) management. In the multidisciplinary setting of OR management, shortcomings in rules for decision making and lack of communication result in members perceiving themselves as competitors in the patient's environment rather than acting as art of a multiprofessional team. This inevitably leads to the emergence and escalation of conflicts. We developed a conflict matrix to provide an inexpensive and objective way for evaluating the level of escalation of conflicts in a multiprofessional working environment, such as an OR. The senior members of all involved disciplines were asked to estimate the level of conflict escalation between the individual professional groups on a scale of 0-9. By aggregating the response data, an overview of the conflict matrix within this OR section was created. No feedback was received from 1 of the 11 contacted occupational groups. By color coding the median, minimum and maximum values of the retrieved data, an intuitive overview of the escalation levels of conflict could be provided. The value range of all feedbacks was between 0 and 6. Estimation of the escalation levels differed widely within one category, showing a range of up to 6 (out of 6) levels. The presented assessment using a conflict matrix is a simple and cost-effective method to assess the conflict landscape, especially in multidisciplinary environments, such as OR management. The chance of conflict prevention or the early recognition of existing conflicts represents an enormous potential for cost and risk saving and might have positive long-term effects by building a culture of conflict prevention at the workplace and a positive influence on interdisciplinary cooperation in this working environment.

  3. ANALYSIS AND OPERATING LEVERAGE RELATIONSHIP WITH THE OPERATIONAL RISK CUBAN ENTERPRISES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    María E. González-del Foyo

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The analysis of the equilibrium point is important in the planning process, because the relation costvolume-benefit may become significantly influenced by the investment of the company in fixed assets, and the changes in the ratio of fixed assets in relation to variable assets are determined at the moment, that the finantial plans are established. Together with the analysis of the equilibrium point, the degree of leverage is calculated and interpreted and its implicatiosn for the operative risk of an company is studied. The study of the degree of leverage and its interpretation from the operative risk point of view to which an company thats operate in different conditions and economies is faced, with is the basic objetive of the present paper and is of the highest importance for the decision taking of the management, being this a phenomenon present in all economic organizations. 

  4. Risk-based Operation and Maintenance for Offshore Wind Turbines

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Nielsen, Jannie Jessen

    2011-01-01

    For offshore wind turbines, costs to Operation and Maintenance (OM) are substantial, and can be expected to increase when wind farms are placed at deeper water depths and in more harsh environments. Traditional strategies for OM include corrective and preventive (scheduled and condition...... statistics and costs of the different operations. The different OM strategies are described and compared in an illustrative example with focus on which types of information that are needed. Special focus is on comparison between risk-based maintenance strategies and the conventional maintenance planning...... and are often the driving mechanisms for failures / faults that need maintenance. Observations of the degree of damage can increase the reliability of predictions and decrease the costs of OM if integrated in a risk-based framework theoretically based on pre-posterior Bayesian decision theory. The mathematical...

  5. MULTILANGUAGE WEBSITE CONCEPT FOR OPERATIONAL IT RISK RESEARCH

    OpenAIRE

    Romānovs, Andrejs; Lektauers, Arnis; Merkurjevs, Jurijs; Klimovs, Ruslans

    2015-01-01

    The paper presents an approach of researches effective organization in sphere of operational IT risk governance. For this purpose, the application of digital multilanguage research area is advised, which can simplify discussion processes for users/researchers from different countries. The concept of multilanguage website is developed based on performed analysis of following modern IT application trends of website development: Web 2.0., social networks, blogs, wiki, etc. Then, practical soluti...

  6. Risk monitor - a tool for operational safety assessment risk monitor - user's manual

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hari Prasad, M.; Vinod, Gopika; Saraf, R.K.; Ghosh, A.K.

    2006-06-01

    Probabilistic Safety Assessment has become a key tool as on today to identify and understand Nuclear Power Plant vulnerabilities. As a result of the availability of these PSA studies, there is a desire to use them to enhance plant safety and to operate the nuclear stations in the most efficient manner. Risk Monitor is a PC based tool, which computes the real time safety level and assists plant personnel to manage day-to-day activities. Risk Monitor is a PC based user friendly software tool used for modification and re-analysis of a nuclear Power plant. Operation of Risk Monitor is based on PSA methods for assisting in day to day applications. Risk Monitoring programs can assess the risk profile and are used to optimize the operation of Nuclear Power Plants with respect to a minimum risk level over the operating time. This report presents the background activities of Risk Monitor, its application areas and the step by step procedure for the user.to interact with the software. This software can be used with the PSA model of any Nuclear Power Plant. (author)

  7. Operative Start Time Does Not Affect Post-Operative Infection Risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guidry, Christopher A; Davies, Stephen W; Willis, Rhett N; Dietch, Zachary C; Shah, Puja M; Sawyer, Robert G

    2016-10-01

    Surgical care is delivered 24 h a day at most institutions. Alarmingly, some authors have found that certain operative start times are associated with greater morbidity and mortality rates. This effect has been noted in both the public and private sector. Although some of these differences may be related to process, they may also be caused by the human circadian rhythm and corresponding changes in host defenses. We hypothesized that the time of day of an operation would impact the frequency of certain post-operative outcomes significantly. Cases at a single tertiary-care center reported to the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program over a 10-year period were identified. Operative start times were divided into six-hour blocks, with 6 am to noon serving as the reference. Standard univariable techniques were applied. Multivariable logistic regression with mixed effects modeling then was used to determine the relation between operative start times and infectious outcomes, controlling for surgeon clustering. Statistical significance was set at p operative infectious complication. Seventy percent of these infections (n = 1,506) were surgical site infections. On univariable analysis considering all cases, nighttime and evening operations had higher rates of post-operative infections than those in performed during the day (9.1% from 6 am to noon; 9.7% from noon to 6 pm; 14.8% from 6 pm to midnight; and 14.4% from midnight to 6 am; p operative start time was not associated with the risk of post-operative infection, even when emergency cases were considered independently. Our data suggest that operative start times have no correlation with post-operative infectious complications. Further work is required to identify the source of the time-dependent outcome variability observed in previous studies.

  8. Making Risk Models Operational for Situational Awareness and Decision Support

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Paulson, P.R.; Coles, G.; Shoemaker, S.

    2012-01-01

    We present CARIM, a decision support tool to aid in the evaluation of plans for converting control systems to digital instruments. The model provides the capability to optimize planning and resource allocation to reduce risk from multiple safety and economic perspectives. (author)

  9. Risk variables in evaluation of transport projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vařbuchta, Petr; Kovářová, Hana; Hromádka, Vít; Vítková, Eva

    2017-09-01

    Depending on the constantly increasing demands on assessment of investment projects, especially assessment of large-scale projects in transport and important European projects with wide impacts, there is constantly increasing focus on risk management, whether to find mitigations, creating corrective measures or their implementation in assessment, especially in the context of Cost-Benefit analysis. To project assessment is often used implementation of certain risk variables, which can generate negative impacts of project outputs in framework of assess. Especially in case of transportation infrastructure projects is taken much emphasis on the influence of risk variables. However, currently in case of assessment of transportation projects is in Czech Republic used a few risk variables, which occur in the most projects. This leads to certain limitation in framework of impact assessment of risk variables. This papers aims to specify a new risk variables and process of applying them to already executed project assessment. Based on changes generated by new risk variables will be evaluated differences between original and adapted assessment.

  10. Risk evaluation mitigation strategies: the evolution of risk management policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hollingsworth, Kristen; Toscani, Michael

    2013-04-01

    The United States Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has the primary regulatory responsibility to ensure that medications are safe and effective both prior to drug approval and while the medication is being actively marketed by manufacturers. The responsibility for safe medications prior to marketing was signed into law in 1938 under the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act; however, a significant risk management evolution has taken place since 1938. Additional federal rules, entitled the Food and Drug Administration Amendments Act, were established in 2007 and extended the government's oversight through the addition of a Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy (REMS) for certain drugs. REMS is a mandated strategy to manage a known or potentially serious risk associated with a medication or biological product. Reasons for this extension of oversight were driven primarily by the FDA's movement to ensure that patients and providers are better informed of drug therapies and their specific benefits and risks prior to initiation. This article provides an historical perspective of the evolution of medication risk management policy and includes a review of REMS programs, an assessment of the positive and negative aspects of REMS, and provides suggestions for planning and measuring outcomes. In particular, this publication presents an overview of the evolution of the REMS program and its implications.

  11. Applied decision analysis and risk evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ferse, W.; Kruber, S.

    1995-01-01

    During 1994 the workgroup 'Applied Decision Analysis and Risk Evaluation; continued the work on the knowledge based decision support system XUMA-GEFA for the evaluation of the hazard potential of contaminated sites. Additionally a new research direction was started which aims at the support of a later stage of the treatment of contaminated sites: The clean-up decision. For the support of decisions arising at this stage, the methods of decision analysis will be used. Computational aids for evaluation and decision support were implemented and a case study at a waste disposal site in Saxony which turns out to be a danger for the surrounding groundwater ressource was initiated. (orig.)

  12. Operative Duration and Risk of Surgical Site Infection in Neurosurgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bekelis, Kimon; Coy, Shannon; Simmons, Nathan

    2016-10-01

    The association of surgical duration with the risk of surgical site infection (SSI) has not been quantified in neurosurgery. We investigated the association of operative duration in neurosurgical procedures with the incidence of SSI. We performed a retrospective cohort study involving patients who underwent neurosurgical procedures from 2005 to 2012 and were registered in the American College of Surgeons National Quality Improvement Project registry. To control for confounding, we used multivariable regression models and propensity score conditioning. During the study period there were 94,744 patients who underwent a neurosurgical procedure and met the inclusion criteria. Of these patients, 4.1% developed a postoperative SSI within 30 days. Multivariable logistic regression showed an association between longer operative duration with higher incidence of SSI (odds ratio [OR], 1.18; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.16-1.20). Compared with procedures of moderate duration (third quintile, 40th-60th percentile), patients undergoing the longest procedures (>80th percentile) had higher odds (OR, 2.07; 95% CI, 1.86-2.31) of developing SSI. The shortest procedures (operative duration was associated with increased incidence of SSI for neurosurgical procedures. These results can be used by neurosurgeons to inform operative management and to stratify patients with regard to SSI risk. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  13. Short Operative Duration and Surgical Site Infection Risk in Hip and Knee Arthroplasty Procedures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dicks, Kristen V; Baker, Arthur W; Durkin, Michael J; Anderson, Deverick J; Moehring, Rebekah W; Chen, Luke F; Sexton, Daniel J; Weber, David J; Lewis, Sarah S

    2015-12-01

    To determine the association (1) between shorter operative duration and surgical site infection (SSI) and (2) between surgeon median operative duration and SSI risk among first-time hip and knee arthroplasties. Retrospective cohort study A total of 43 community hospitals located in the southeastern United States. Adults who developed SSIs according to National Healthcare Safety Network criteria within 365 days of first-time knee or hip arthroplasties performed between January 1, 2008 and December 31, 2012. Log-binomial regression models estimated the association (1) between operative duration and SSI outcome and (2) between surgeon median operative duration and SSI outcome. Hip and knee arthroplasties were evaluated in separate models. Each model was adjusted for American Society of Anesthesiology score and patient age. A total of 25,531 hip arthroplasties and 42,187 knee arthroplasties were included in the study. The risk of SSI in knee arthroplasties with an operative duration shorter than the 25th percentile was 0.40 times the risk of SSI in knee arthroplasties with an operative duration between the 25th and 75th percentile (risk ratio [RR], 0.40; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.38-0.56; Poperative duration did not demonstrate significant association with SSI for hip arthroplasties (RR, 1.04; 95% CI, 0.79-1.37; P=.36). Knee arthroplasty surgeons with shorter median operative durations had a lower risk of SSI than surgeons with typical median operative durations (RR, 0.52; 95% CI, 0.43-0.64; Poperative durations were not associated with a higher SSI risk for knee or hip arthroplasty procedures in our analysis.

  14. Managing risks of market price uncertainty for a microgrid operation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raghavan, Sriram

    After deregulation of electricity in the United States, the day-ahead and real-time markets allow load serving entities and generation companies to bid and purchase/sell energy under the supervision of the independent system operator (ISO). The electricity market prices are inherently uncertain, and can be highly volatile. The main objective of this thesis is to hedge against the risk from the uncertainty of the market prices when purchasing/selling energy from/to the market. The energy manager can also schedule distributed generators (DGs) and storage of the microgrid to meet the demand, in addition to energy transactions from the market. The risk measure used in this work is the variance of the uncertain market purchase/sale cost/revenue, assuming the price following a Gaussian distribution. Using Markowitz optimization, the risk is minimized to find the optimal mix of purchase from the markets. The problem is formulated as a mixed integer quadratic program. The microgrid at Illinois Institute of Technology (IIT) in Chicago, IL was used as a case study. The result of this work reveals the tradeoff faced by the microgrid energy manager between minimizing the risk and minimizing the mean of the total operating cost (TOC) of the microgrid. With this information, the microgrid energy manager can make decisions in the day-ahead and real-time markets according to their risk aversion preference. The assumption of market prices following Gaussian distribution is also verified to be reasonable for the purpose of hedging against their risks. This is done by comparing the result of the proposed formulation with that obtained from the sample market prices randomly generated using the distribution of actual historic market price data.

  15. Risk assessment and remedial policy evaluation using predictive modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Linkov, L.; Schell, W.R.

    1996-01-01

    As a result of nuclear industry operation and accidents, large areas of natural ecosystems have been contaminated by radionuclides and toxic metals. Extensive societal pressure has been exerted to decrease the radiation dose to the population and to the environment. Thus, in making abatement and remediation policy decisions, not only economic costs but also human and environmental risk assessments are desired. This paper introduces a general framework for risk assessment and remedial policy evaluation using predictive modeling. Ecological risk assessment requires evaluation of the radionuclide distribution in ecosystems. The FORESTPATH model is used for predicting the radionuclide fate in forest compartments after deposition as well as for evaluating the efficiency of remedial policies. Time of intervention and radionuclide deposition profile was predicted as being crucial for the remediation efficiency. Risk assessment conducted for a critical group of forest users in Belarus shows that consumption of forest products (berries and mushrooms) leads to about 0.004% risk of a fatal cancer annually. Cost-benefit analysis for forest cleanup suggests that complete removal of organic layer is too expensive for application in Belarus and a better methodology is required. In conclusion, FORESTPATH modeling framework could have wide applications in environmental remediation of radionuclides and toxic metals as well as in dose reconstruction and, risk-assessment

  16. Operator performance evaluation using multi criteria decision making methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rani, Ruzanita Mat; Ismail, Wan Rosmanira; Razali, Siti Fatihah

    2014-06-01

    Operator performance evaluation is a very important operation in labor-intensive manufacturing industry because the company's productivity depends on the performance of its operators. The aims of operator performance evaluation are to give feedback to operators on their performance, to increase company's productivity and to identify strengths and weaknesses of each operator. In this paper, six multi criteria decision making methods; Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), fuzzy AHP (FAHP), ELECTRE, PROMETHEE II, Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) and VlseKriterijumska Optimizacija I Kompromisno Resenje (VIKOR) are used to evaluate the operators' performance and to rank the operators. The performance evaluation is based on six main criteria; competency, experience and skill, teamwork and time punctuality, personal characteristics, capability and outcome. The study was conducted at one of the SME food manufacturing companies in Selangor. From the study, it is found that AHP and FAHP yielded the "outcome" criteria as the most important criteria. The results of operator performance evaluation showed that the same operator is ranked the first using all six methods.

  17. Modelling operator cognitive interactions in nuclear power plant safety evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Senders, J.W.; Moray, N.; Smiley, A.; Sellen, A.

    1985-08-01

    The overall objectives of the study were to review methods which are applicable to the analysis of control room operator cognitive interactions in nuclear plant safety evaluations and to indicate where future research effort in this area should be directed. This report is based on an exhaustive search and review of the literature on NPP (Nuclear Power Plant) operator error, human error, human cognitive function, and on human performance. A number of methods which have been proposed for the estimation of data for probabilistic risk analysis have been examined and have been found wanting. None addresses the problem of diagnosis error per se. Virtually all are concerned with the more easily detected and identified errors of action. None addresses underlying cause and mechanism. It is these mechanisms which must be understood if diagnosis errors and other cognitive errors are to be controlled and predicted. We have attempted to overcome the deficiencies of earlier work and have constructed a model/taxonomy, EXHUME, which we consider to be exhaustive. This construct has proved to be fruitful in organizing our thinking about the kinds of error that can occur and the nature of self-correcting mechanisms, and has guided our thinking in suggesting a research program which can provide the data needed for quantification of cognitive error rates and of the effects of mitigating efforts. In addition a preliminary outline of EMBED, a causal model of error, is given based on general behavioural research into perception, attention, memory, and decision making. 184 refs

  18. Conceptual Model of Offshore Wind Environmental Risk Evaluation System

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Anderson, Richard M.; Copping, Andrea E.; Van Cleve, Frances B.; Unwin, Stephen D.; Hamilton, Erin L.

    2010-06-01

    In this report we describe the development of the Environmental Risk Evaluation System (ERES), a risk-informed analytical process for estimating the environmental risks associated with the construction and operation of offshore wind energy generation projects. The development of ERES for offshore wind is closely allied to a concurrent process undertaken to examine environmental effects of marine and hydrokinetic (MHK) energy generation, although specific risk-relevant attributes will differ between the MHK and offshore wind domains. During FY10, a conceptual design of ERES for offshore wind will be developed. The offshore wind ERES mockup described in this report will provide a preview of the functionality of a fully developed risk evaluation system that will use risk assessment techniques to determine priority stressors on aquatic organisms and environments from specific technology aspects, identify key uncertainties underlying high-risk issues, compile a wide-range of data types in an innovative and flexible data organizing scheme, and inform planning and decision processes with a transparent and technically robust decision-support tool. A fully functional version of ERES for offshore wind will be developed in a subsequent phase of the project.

  19. Reduction of work-related musculoskeletal risk factors following ergonomics education of sewing machine operators.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bulduk, Sıdıka; Bulduk, Emre Özgür; Süren, Tufan

    2017-09-01

    Work-related musculoskeletal disorders (WMSDs) are a major hazard for sewing machine operators. Ergonomics education is recommended for reducing musculoskeletal disorders at workstations. This study aimed to evaluate the effect of an ergonomics education in reducing the exposure to risk factors for WMSDs among sewing machine operators. In this study of 278 workers, their exposure to the risk of WMSDs was assessed using the quick exposure check scale prior to them attending an ergonomics education programme and then again 3 months after the programme. The scores for risk exposure before the education programme were moderate for back (static) and back (dynamic), high for shoulder/arm and very high for wrist/hand and neck. The results obtained 3 months later were low for back (static) and shoulder/arm, and moderate for back (dynamic), wrist/hand and neck. Based on our results, ergonomics education can reduce the exposure to risk factors for WMSDs in the workplace.

  20. The GNP testbed for operator support evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goodstein, L.P.; Hedegaard, J.; Hoejberg, K.S.; Lind, M.

    1984-11-01

    The GNP project is an outgrowth of our work over the past few years in the area of man-machine system representation and modelling - particularly with an eye towards studying the activities of diagnosis and decision making in connection with complex technical systems. Previous publications have dealt with the conceptual basis for this work. However, there was felt to be a need for a realistic test bed of a reasonable (and variable) complexity for evaluating the concepts by means of a suitably designed experimental program. This paper will thus describe the socalled GNP project and the associated activity to date. The following points will be covered: - GNP as a prototypical process - GNP as a simulation - The current GNP experimental setup at Risoe - Initial GNP - Experiments at Risoe - Planning - Experience to date. (author)

  1. RESIDUAL VALUE RISK IN AUTOMOTIVE OPERATING LEASE CONTRACTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivan Tot

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The subject of the research in this paper are automotive operating lease contracts in the Croatian business practice. The provisions of the general terms and conditions for operating lease contracts of the Croatian leasing companies are being analysed, particulary those relating to the rights and obligations of the parties to the contract after the operating lease contract was terminated and the motor vehicle returned to the lessor. The existence of three contractual models of the automotive operating lease contract in the Croatian business practice is established, which vary with regard to the assignment and the distribution of the residual value risk. Those contractual models are being compared with the two most common contractual models of automotive lease contracts in the Austrian and German business practice: the lease contract with the excess mileage adjustment and the lease contract with the terminal rent adjustment. On the basis of the results of this comparison, applicability of the legal solutions, developed in the Austrian and German jurisprudence and legal literature regarding the lease contract with the excess mileage adjustment and the lease contract with the terminal rent adjustment, to the automotive operating lease contract within the framework of Croatian law, is being examinded.

  2. Relativity evaluation of reliability on operation in nuclear power plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Inata, Takashi

    1987-01-01

    The report presents a quantitative method for evaluating the reliability of operations conducted in nuclear power plants. The quantitative reliability evaluation method is based on the 'detailed block diagram analysis (De-BDA)'. All units of a series of operations are separately displayed for each block and combined sequentially. Then, calculation is performed to evaluate the reliability. Basically, De-BDA calculation is made for pairs of operation labels, which are connected in parallel or in series at different subordination levels. The applicability of the De-BDA method is demonstrated by carrying out calculation for three model cases: operations in the event of malfunction of the control valve in the main water supply system for PWR, switching from an electrically-operated water supply pump to a turbin-operated water supply pump, and isolation and water removal operation for a low-pressure condensate pump. It is shown that the relative importance of each unit of a series of operations can be evaluated, making it possible to extract those units of greater importance, and that the priority among the factors which affect the reliability of operations can be determined. Results of the De-BDA calculation can serve to find important points to be considered in developing an operation manual, conducting education and training, and improving facilities. (Nogami, K.)

  3. Comparative analysis of assessment methods for operational and anesthetic risks in ulcerative gastroduodenal bleeding

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Potakhin S.N.

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Aim of the investigation: to conduct a comparative analysis of methods of evaluation of surgical and anesthetic risks in ulcerative gastroduodenal bleeding. Materials and methods. A retrospective analysis ofthe extent of the surgical and anesthetic risks and results of treatment of 71 patients with peptic ulcer bleeding has been conducted in the study. To evaluate the surgical and anesthetic risks classification trees are used, scale ТА. Rockall and prognosis System of rebleeding (SPRK, proposed by N. V. Lebedev et al. in 2009, enabling to evaluate the probability of a fatal outcome. To compare the efficacy ofthe methods the following indicators are used: sensitivity, specificity and prediction of positive result. Results. The study compared the results ofthe risk assessment emergency operation by using these methods with the outcome ofthe operation. The comparison ofthe prognosis results in sensitivity leads to the conclusion that the scales ТА. Rockall and SPRK are worse than the developed method of classification trees in recognizing patients with poor outcome of surgery. Conclusion. The method of classification trees can be considered as the most accurate method of evaluation of surgical and anesthetic risks in ulcerative gastroduodenal bleeding.

  4. Operation of the EPRI Nondestructive Evaluation Center

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stone, R.M.; Ammirato, F.V.; Becker, F.L.

    1989-11-01

    This report describes the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) funded nondestructive evaluation (NDE) and life assessment project activities carried out at the EPRI NDE Center in 1988. The primary support for this program is provided through contract RP 1570-2 with the EPRI Nuclear Division. Supplementary funding is provided by other contracts with the EPRI Nuclear, Coal Combustion, and Electrical Systems Divisions. The major objective of this program is to provide improved and field-qualified NDE equipment, procedures, and personnel training to the electric utility industry. A second program objective involves the validation, provision, and maintenance of life assessment codes for selected plant components. Significant assistance has been provided to the utility industry under this project in the form of improved, field-ready equipment and procedures; critically needed assessments of inspection method capability; demonstrations of effectiveness of examination methods; rapid response for critical, short-term problems; assistance with selected life assessment computer codes; and training for specific utility industry needs. These efforts have specifically involved heat exchanger, piping, steam turbine, generator, and heavy section problems. Certain components of both nuclear and fossil plants have been addressed. 56 refs., 48 figs., 13 tabs

  5. Evaluation of new control rooms by operator performance analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mori, M; Tomizawa, T.; Tai, I.; Monta, K.; Yoshimura, S.; Hattori, Y.

    1987-01-01

    An advanced supervisory and control system called PODIA TM (Plant Operation by Displayed Information and Automation) was developed by Toshiba. Since this system utilizes computer driven CRTs as a main device for information transfer to operators, thorough system integration tests were performed at the factory and evaluations were made of operators' assessment from the initial experience of the system. The PODIA system is currently installed at two BWR power plants. Based on the experiences from the development of PODIA, a more advanced man-machine interface, Advanced-PODIA (A-PODIA), is developed. A-PODIA enhances the capabilities of PODIA in automation, diagnosis, operational guidance and information display. A-PODIA has been validated by carrying out systematic experiments with a full-scope simulator developed for the validation. The results of the experiments have been analyzed by the method of operator performance analysis and applied to further improvement of the A-PODIA system. As a feedback from actual operational experience, operator performance data in simulator training is an important source of information to evaluate human factors of a control room. To facilitate analysis of operator performance, a performance evaluation system has been developed by applying AI techniques. The knowledge contained in the performance evaluation system was elicited from operator training experts and represented as rules. The rules were implemented by employing an object-oriented paradigm to facilitate knowledge management. In conclusion, it is stated that the feedback from new control room operation can be obtained at an early stage by validation tests and also continuously by comprehensive evaluation (with the help of automated tools) of operator performance in simulator training. The results of operator performance analysis can be utilized for improvement of system design as well as operator training. (author)

  6. Dynamic operational risk management at industrial irradiation plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wieland, Patricia; Lustosa, Leonardo J.

    2010-01-01

    Although feasibility studies indicate that industrial irradiation can be sound business, some initiatives fail in few years. In Brazil, the operation of some industrial irradiation plants has been discontinued in spite of the growing export market for tropical fruits like mangoes and papayas, of which Brazil is one of the major producers. This paper discusses the overall aspects of the food irradiation in Brazil, singles out dynamic operation risk management as an important need and provides suggestions for further developments. This research work involves literature review as well as interviews with irradiation industry stake holders in order to identify the ORs and to assess the situation in a logical and integrated way. The results show that public acceptance is not a major issue for the food preservation industry in Brazil. On the contrary, evidences show that there is public support, provided that information on the subject is disseminated among consumers. Need for improvements have been detected in the areas of industrial operational risk management, external relations for export, and regulatory issues, among others to support decision making in establishing and developing industrial food irradiation capabilities to serve Brazilian tropical fruit exports. (author)

  7. Criticality Risk Management: Why Analysis of Operating Practices Matters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Menuet, L.; Tasset, D.; Hebraud, C.

    2016-01-01

    The criticality risk is an unwanted neutron chain reaction that could lead, if not under control, to a criticality accident resulting in a high release of energy accompanied by an intense emission of neutron and gamma radiation. Thus, the management of criticality risk in Fuel Cycle Facilities relies mainly on a set of prescriptions and requirements established by the licencees for achieving safety objectives. This paper intends to show that, beyond prescriptions and requirements, a socio-technical approach is essential to define a relevant set of criticality safety rules favouring efficient and safe human activities. Indeed, a thorough knowledge of staff operating practices, beyond contributing significantly to the definition of appropriate technical and organizational provisions, enhances safety management combining “rule-based safety” and “managed safety”. Rule-based safety (top down definition of the rules) can be achieved by anticipating undesirable situations and defining provisions to avoid and manage them in daily practices. On the other hand, managed safety (integration of local characteristics) develops the sociotechnical system capacity to anticipate, recognise and formulate appropriate responses to unexpected scenarios that were not foreseen by the organization, or to rules that are not applicable to the operational realities. Thus, an effective safety management relies on human expertise, on the skills of individuals, on the quality of initiatives, and on the way teams and organizations perform the operations on a daily basis, interact and coordinate to integrate and regulate both ruled-based safety and managed safety.

  8. Credit risk evaluation based on social media.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Yang; Gu, Jing; Zhou, Zongfang

    2016-07-01

    Social media has been playing an increasingly important role in the sharing of individuals' opinions on many financial issues, including credit risk in investment decisions. This paper analyzes whether these opinions, which are transmitted through social media, can accurately predict enterprises' future credit risk. We consider financial statements oriented evaluation results based on logit and probit approaches as the benchmarks. We then conduct textual analysis to retrieve both posts and their corresponding commentaries published on two of the most popular social media platforms for financial investors in China. Professional advice from financial analysts is also investigated in this paper. We surprisingly find that the opinions extracted from both posts and commentaries surpass opinions of analysts in terms of credit risk prediction. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. The control of operational risk in nuclear power plant operations - Some cross-cultural perspectives

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Suchard, A.; Rochlin, G.

    1992-01-01

    The operation of nuclear power plants requires the management of a complex technology under exacting performance and safety criteria. Organizations operating nuclear power plants are faced with the challenge of simultaneously meeting technical, organizational, and social demands, striving toward perfection in a situation where learning by trial and error can be too costly. In this process, they interact with regulatory bodies who seek to help minimize operational risk by imposing and upholding safety standards. The character of this interaction differs in various countries, as does the larger cultural setting. The study generally pursued the question of how organizations operating complex and demanding technologies adapt to such requirements and circumstances, and how they can succeed in delivering nearly error-free performance. One aspect of this study includes the comparison of organizational and cultural environments for nuclear power plant operations in the US, France, Germany, Sweden, and Switzerland. The research involved in-depth, continuous observations on location and interviews with plant personnel, especially control operators, at one plant in each country

  10. Artificial Systems and Models for Risk Covering Operations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laurenţiu Mihai Treapăt

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Mainly, this paper focuses on the roles of artificial intelligence based systems and especially on risk-covering operations. In this context, the paper comes with theoretical explanations on real-life based examples and applications. From a general perspective, the paper enriches its value with a wide discussion on the related subject. The paper aims to revise the volatilities’ estimation models and the correlations between the various time series and also by presenting the Risk Metrics methodology, as explained is a case study. The advantages that the VaR estimation offers, consist of its ability to quantitatively and numerically express the risk level of a portfolio, at a certain moment in time and also the risk of on open position (in titles, in FX, commodities or granted loans, belonging to an economic agent or even individual; hence, its role in a more efficient capital allocation, in the assumed risk delimitation, and also as a performance measurement instrument. In this paper and the study case that completes our work, we aim to prove how we can prevent considerable losses and even bankruptcies if VaR is known and applied accordingly. For this reason, the universities inRomaniashould include or increase their curricula with the study of the VaR model as an artificial intelligence tool. The simplicity of the presented case study, most probably, is the strongest argument of the current work because it can be understood also by the readers that are not necessarily very experienced in the risk management field.

  11. Real-time risk assessment of operational events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Perryman, L.J.; Foster, N.A.S.; Nicholls, D.R.; Grobbelaar, J.F.

    1996-01-01

    Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) has always been fundamental to the licensing process of Koeberg nuclear power station. Furthermore, over the past 8 years PRA has assisted in many areas of operation. One of these areas is the real-time assessment of abnormal operating events. Over the years, considerable experience has been gained in using PRA to improve plant safety and performance. This paper presents some of the insights obtained in using PRA in such a dynamic role and demonstrates that, by developing and using the plant-specific 'living' PRA, considerable safety and financial gains can be obtained. These insights specifically concern the prerequisites before optimal use of a plant-specific 'living' PRA can be made. Finally, examples are presented of occurrences when PRA was used to improve plant safety and performance. These examples serve to demonstrate the advantages that can be obtained if sufficient resources are placed at the disposal of the PRA team. (orig.)

  12. Evaluation and Adaptation of Mine-Hunting Operations with AUVs

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vossen, R. van; Giodini, S.; Hunter, A.J.; Beckers, A.L.D.; Williams, D.F.

    2013-01-01

    The effectiveness and efficiency of mine-hunting operations with autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs) are greatly influenced by environmental conditions, such as seabed, turbidity, currents, and tides. Therefore accurate environmental information is needed for the planning and evaluation of

  13. Patient safety in the operating room: an intervention study on latent risk factors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    van Beuzekom Martie

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Patient safety is one of the greatest challenges in healthcare. In the operating room errors are frequent and often consequential. This article describes an approach to a successful implementation of a patient safety program in the operating room, focussing on latent risk factors that influence patient safety. We performed an intervention to improve these latent risk factors (LRFs and increase awareness of patient safety issues amongst OR staff. Methods Latent risk factors were studied using a validated questionnaire applied to the OR staff before and after an intervention. A pre-test/post-test control group design with repeated measures was used to evaluate the effects of the interventions. The staff from one operating room of an university hospital acted as the intervention group. Controls consisted of the staff of the operating room in another university hospital. The outcomes were the changes in LRF scores, perceived incident rate, and changes in incident reports between pre- and post-intervention. Results Based on pre-test scores and participants’ key concerns about organizational factors affecting patient safety in their department the intervention focused on the following LRFs: Material Resources, Training and Staffing Recourses. After the intervention, the intervention operating room - compared to the control operating room - reported significantly fewer problems on Material Resources and Staffing Resources and a significantly lower score on perceived incident rate. The contribution of technical factors to incident causation decreased significantly in the intervention group after the intervention. Conclusion The change of state of latent risk factors can be measured using a patient safety questionnaire aimed at these factors. The change of the relevant risk factors (Material and Staffing resources concurred with a decrease in perceived and reported incident rates in the relevant categories. We conclude that

  14. International co-operation in nuclear data evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nordborg, C.

    2003-01-01

    The NEA Working Party on International Nuclear Data Evaluation Co-operation serves as a forum for the exchange of information on required improvements to evaluated nuclear data libraries used in all nuclear application areas. The main objective is to identify the major discrepancies in existing evaluated data libraries and to resolve these discrepancies in specifically established expert groups. The long-term goal is to have converging evaluated data libraries. This co-operative effort is very successful. It has resolved a number of outstanding nuclear data problems and has issued 15 reports in support of the studies undertaken jointly. (author)

  15. Cascade reservoir flood control operation based on risk grading and warning in the Upper Yellow River

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xuejiao, M.; Chang, J.; Wang, Y.

    2017-12-01

    Flood risk reduction with non-engineering measures has become the main idea for flood management. It is more effective for flood risk management to take various non-engineering measures. In this paper, a flood control operation model for cascade reservoirs in the Upper Yellow River was proposed to lower the flood risk of the water system with multi-reservoir by combining the reservoir flood control operation (RFCO) and flood early warning together. Specifically, a discharge control chart was employed to build the joint RFCO simulation model for cascade reservoirs in the Upper Yellow River. And entropy-weighted fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method was adopted to establish a multi-factorial risk assessment model for flood warning grade. Furthermore, after determining the implementing mode of countermeasures with future inflow, an intelligent optimization algorithm was used to solve the optimization model for applicable water release scheme. In addition, another model without any countermeasure was set to be a comparative experiment. The results show that the model developed in this paper can further decrease the flood risk of water system with cascade reservoirs. It provides a new approach to flood risk management by coupling flood control operation and flood early warning of cascade reservoirs.

  16. INTEGRATED SENSOR EVALUATION CIRCUIT AND METHOD FOR OPERATING SAID CIRCUIT

    OpenAIRE

    Krüger, Jens; Gausa, Dominik

    2015-01-01

    WO15090426A1 Sensor evaluation device and method for operating said device Integrated sensor evaluation circuit for evaluating a sensor signal (14) received from a sensor (12), having a first connection (28a) for connection to the sensor and a second connection (28b) for connection to the sensor. The integrated sensor evaluation circuit comprises a configuration data memory (16) for storing configuration data which describe signal properties of a plurality of sensor control signals (26a-c). T...

  17. An Online Evaluation of Operating Reserve for System Security

    OpenAIRE

    Le-Ren Chang-Chien; Yin-Juin Lin; Chin-Chung Wu

    2007-01-01

    Utilities use operating reserve for frequency regulation.To ensure that the operating frequency and system security are well maintained, the operating grid codes always specify that the reserve quantity and response rate should meet some prescribed levels. This paper proposes a methodology to evaluate system's contingency reserve for an isolated power network. With the presented algorithm to estimate system's frequency response characteristic, an online allocation of contingency reserve would...

  18. Ergonomic risk factor identification for sewing machine operators through supervised occupational therapy fieldwork in Bangladesh: A case study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Habib, Md Monjurul

    2015-01-01

    Many sewing machine operators are working with high risk factors for musculoskeletal health in the garments industries in Bangladesh. To identify the physical risk factors among sewing machine operators in a Bangladeshi garments factory. Sewing machine operators (327, 83% female), were evaluated. The mean age of the participants was 25.25 years. Six ergonomic risk factors were determined using the Musculoskeletal Disorders risk assessment. Data collection included measurements of sewing machine table and chair heights; this data was combined with information from informal interviews. Significant ergonomic risk factors found included the combination of awkward postures of the neck and back, repetitive hand and arm movements, poor ergonomic workstations and prolonged working hours without adequate breaks; these risk factors resulted in musculoskeletal complaints, sick leave, and switching jobs. One aspect of improving worker health in garment factories includes addressing musculoskeletal risk factors through ergonomic interventions.

  19. Prediction of chronic post-operative pain: pre-operative DNIC testing identifies patients at risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yarnitsky, David; Crispel, Yonathan; Eisenberg, Elon; Granovsky, Yelena; Ben-Nun, Alon; Sprecher, Elliot; Best, Lael-Anson; Granot, Michal

    2008-08-15

    Surgical and medical procedures, mainly those associated with nerve injuries, may lead to chronic persistent pain. Currently, one cannot predict which patients undergoing such procedures are 'at risk' to develop chronic pain. We hypothesized that the endogenous analgesia system is key to determining the pattern of handling noxious events, and therefore testing diffuse noxious inhibitory control (DNIC) will predict susceptibility to develop chronic post-thoracotomy pain (CPTP). Pre-operative psychophysical tests, including DNIC assessment (pain reduction during exposure to another noxious stimulus at remote body area), were conducted in 62 patients, who were followed 29.0+/-16.9 weeks after thoracotomy. Logistic regression revealed that pre-operatively assessed DNIC efficiency and acute post-operative pain intensity were two independent predictors for CPTP. Efficient DNIC predicted lower risk of CPTP, with OR 0.52 (0.33-0.77 95% CI, p=0.0024), i.e., a 10-point numerical pain scale (NPS) reduction halves the chance to develop chronic pain. Higher acute pain intensity indicated OR of 1.80 (1.28-2.77, p=0.0024) predicting nearly a double chance to develop chronic pain for each 10-point increase. The other psychophysical measures, pain thresholds and supra-threshold pain magnitudes, did not predict CPTP. For prediction of acute post-operative pain intensity, DNIC efficiency was not found significant. Effectiveness of the endogenous analgesia system obtained at a pain-free state, therefore, seems to reflect the individual's ability to tackle noxious events, identifying patients 'at risk' to develop post-intervention chronic pain. Applying this diagnostic approach before procedures that might generate pain may allow individually tailored pain prevention and management, which may substantially reduce suffering.

  20. Development of an operations evaluation system for sinking EDM

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lauwers, B.; Oosterling, J.A.J.; Vanderauwera, W.

    2010-01-01

    This paper describes the development and validation of an operations evaluation system for sinking EDM operations. Based on a given workpiece geometry (e.g. mould), regions to be EDM'ed are automatically indentified. For a given electrode configuration, consisting of one or more regions, EDM

  1. Risk-based configuration control: Application of PRA in improving technical specifications and operational safety

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Samanta, P.K.; Kim, I.S.; Vesely, W.E.

    1991-01-01

    The objective of risk-based configuration control is to detect and control plant configurations form a risk perspective. The configurations of particular interest involve components which are down during power operation. Controlling plant configurations from a risk-perspective can provide more direct risk control and also more operational flexibility by allowing looser control in areas unimportant to risk

  2. A Discussion on Risk in Complex Operational Settings

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ellis, K., E-mail: ken.ellis@wano.org [WANO, London (United Kingdom)

    2014-10-15

    Full text: Many apparatus today are complicated in that they consist of many components. The risk associated with these complicated apparatus is a product of their unreliable system components and sub-components. The components are a collection of inter-related individual components/ sub-components that can be correlated in a direct cause and effect manner and thus failures can be historically retraced or predicted. Once the confines of the complicated apparatus is extended to include such inputs as humans operating the equipment, man-machine interfaces, multiple processes surrounding the operation of the apparatus, etc., the whole system becomes complex. Complex systems are based on interdependencies versus dependencies, and risk becomes a product of improperly aligned or poorly integrated activities. Cause and effect becomes more loosely coupled and both path and circumstance dependent. To better understand and improve our defence in depth strategies we need to better understand and discuss complex systems and hence allow better erection of protective barriers. (author)

  3. The BWR [Boiling Water Reactor] Emergency Operating Procedures Tracking System (EOPTS): Evaluation by control-room operating crews

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Spurgin, A.J.; Orvis, D.D.; Spurgin, J.P.; Luna, C.J.

    1990-05-01

    This report presents the results of a project sponsored by the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) and Taiwan Power Company (TPC) and conducted by APG and TPC to perform evaluation of the Emergency Operating Procedures Tracking System (EOPTS). The EOPTS is an expert system employing artificial intelligence techniques developed by EPRI for Boiling Water Reactor (BWR) plants based on emergency operating procedures (EOPs). EOPTS is a computerized decision aid used to assist plant operators in efficient and reliable use of EOPs. The main objective of this project was to evaluate the EOPTS and determine how an operator aid of this type could noticeably improve the response time and the reliability of control room crews to multi-failure scenarios. A secondary objective was to collect data on how crew performance was affected. Experiments results indicate that the EOPTS measurably improves crew performance over crews using the EOP flow charts. Time-comparison measurements indicate that crews using the EOPTS perform required actions more quickly than do those using the flowcharts. The results indicate that crews using the EOPTS are not only faster and more consistent in their actions but make fewer errors. In addition, they have a higher likelihood of recovering from the errors that they do make. Use of the EOPTS in the control room should result in faster termination and mitigation of accidents and reduced risk of power plant operations. Recommendations are made towards possible applications of the EOPTS to operator training and evaluation, and for the applicability of the evaluation methodology developed for this project to the evaluation of similar operator aides. 17 refs., 14 figs., 14 tabs

  4. Application of risk assessment in upgrading safety and quality of radiochemical operations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lin, K.H.; Hightower, J.R.; Vaughen, V.C.A.

    1990-01-01

    A Comprehensive Safety Assessment and Upgrade Program (CSAUP) was commenced by the Chemical Technology Division (Chem Tech) at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) to achieve excellence in the safety and quality of its operations and condition of its facilities. In the course of conducting CSAUP, a number of issues of concern were identified. The safety risk of these issues has been assessed, and planned actions were prepared for those issues that require corrective actions or improvement/upgrading. The planned actions were evaluated on consideration for the uniqueness of Chem Tech facilities and operations to determine the risks (high, moderate or low) involved by failure to implement the actions. The risk was defined in terms of the frequency and severity of impact. Priority of categorized actions was based on the urgency of the actions. 2 refs., 1 fig., 3 tabs

  5. Municipal Treated Wastewater Irrigation: Microbiological Risk Evaluation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonio Lonigro

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available Municipal wastewater for irrigation, though treated, can contain substances and pathogens toxic for humans and animals. Pathogens, although not harmful from an agronomical aspect, undoubtedly represent a major concern with regards to sanitary and hygienic profile. In fact, vegetable crops irrigated with treated wastewater exalt the risk of infection since these products can also be eaten raw, as well as transformed or cooked. Practically, the evaluation of the microbiological risk is important to verify if the microbial limits imposed by law for treated municipal wastewater for irrigation, are valid, thus justifying the treatments costs, or if they are too low and, therefore, they don’ t justify them. Different probabilistic models have been studied to assess the microbiological risk; among these, the Beta-Poisson model resulted the most reliable. Thus, the Dipartimento di Scienze delle Produzioni Vegetali of the University of Bari, which has been carrying out researches on irrigation with municipal filtered wastewater for several years, considered interesting to verify if the microbial limits imposed by the italian law n.185/03 are too severe, estimating the biological risk by the probabilistic Beta-Poisson model. Results of field trials on vegetable crops irrigated by municipal filtered wastewater, processed by the Beta-Poisson model, show that the probability to get infection and/or illness is extremely low, and that the actual italian microbial limits are excessively restrictive.

  6. A risk evaluation model using on-site meteorological data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kang, C.S.

    1979-01-01

    A model is considered in order to evaluate the potential risk from a nuclear facility directly combining the on site meteorological data. The model is utilized to evaluate the environmental consequences from the routine releases during normal plant operation as well as following postulated accidental releases. The doses to individual and risks to the population-at-large are also analyzed in conjunction with design of rad-waste management and safety systems. It is observed that the conventional analysis, which is done in two separate unaffiliated phases of releases and atmospheric dispersion tends to result in unnecessary over-design of the systems because of high resultant doses calculated by multiplication of two extreme values. (author)

  7. Operation Risk Mitigation On Halal Meat Supply Chain Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mansur, Agus; Farida, Ayu; Ulil Albab, Muhammad

    2017-06-01

    Business owner of perishable goods such as meats has barriers to meet the demand of worldwide shipping. One of potential risk is damage resulting in decreased quality product, while the product selection criteria not only focus on quality. As the development of health issues and needs, halal meats is not only considered by the Muslim consumer but also consumer globally. In addition, they have to pay attention to the possible risk that might occur during the logistic operations so as they prevent loss if they fail to deal with the problem and risk properly. Quality Function Development proposed to identify what consumer’s need as well as to analyse the condition of market in the future. The study is conducted in the context of business owner’s feelings based on their obstacles. It also aims to unravel the expectations and perceptions of owners with interrelated issues such as halal meats with each affecting on the other multidirectional ways. This study has revealed new insights for policy makers, logistics service providers, and practitioners whose decisions might impact the industry.

  8. Evaluating hospital design from an operations management perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vos, Leti; Groothuis, Siebren; van Merode, Godefridus G

    2007-12-01

    This paper describes an evaluation method for the assessment of hospital building design from the viewpoint of operations management to assure that the building design supports the efficient and effective operating of care processes now and in the future. The different steps of the method are illustrated by a case study. In the case study an experimental design is applied to assess the effect of used logistical concepts, patient mix and technologies. The study shows that the evaluation method provides a valuable tool for the assessment of both functionality and the ability to meet future developments in operational control of a building design.

  9. Quantitative modeling of operational risk in finance and banking using possibility theory

    CERN Document Server

    Chaudhuri, Arindam

    2016-01-01

    This book offers a comprehensive guide to the modelling of operational risk using possibility theory. It provides a set of methods for measuring operational risks under a certain degree of vagueness and impreciseness, as encountered in real-life data. It shows how possibility theory and indeterminate uncertainty-encompassing degrees of belief can be applied in analysing the risk function, and describes the parametric g-and-h distribution associated with extreme value theory as an interesting candidate in this regard. The book offers a complete assessment of fuzzy methods for determining both value at risk (VaR) and subjective value at risk (SVaR), together with a stability estimation of VaR and SVaR. Based on the simulation studies and case studies reported on here, the possibilistic quantification of risk performs consistently better than the probabilistic model. Risk is evaluated by integrating two fuzzy techniques: the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process and the fuzzy extension of techniques for order prefere...

  10. The integrated approach methodology for operator information evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stroube, K.; Modarres, M.; Roush, M.; Hunt, N.; Pearce, R.

    1986-01-01

    The Integrated Approach has developed a complete method for evaluating the relative importance of operation information improvements. By use of decision trees the impact of information on success probability of a function or system can be evaluated. This approach couples goal trees and human success likelihoods to estimate anticipated consequences of a given information system

  11. Gasbuggy Site Assessment and Risk Evaluation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2011-03-01

    The Gasbuggy site is in northern New Mexico in the San Juan Basin, Rio Arriba County (Figure 1-1). The Gasbuggy experiment was designed to evaluate the use of a nuclear detonation to enhance natural gas production from the Pictured Cliffs Formation, a tight, gas-bearing sandstone formation. The 29-kiloton-yield nuclear device was placed in a 17.5-inch wellbore at 4,240 feet (ft) below ground surface (bgs), approximately 40 ft below the Pictured Cliffs/Lewis shale contact, in an attempt to force the cavity/chimney formed by the detonation up into the Pictured Cliffs Sandstone. The test was conducted below the southwest quarter of Section 36, Township 29 North, Range 4 West, New Mexico Principal Meridian. The device was detonated on December 10, 1967, creating a 335-ft-high chimney above the detonation point and a cavity 160 ft in diameter. The gas produced from GB-ER (the emplacement and reentry well) during the post-detonation production tests was radioactive and diluted, primarily by carbon dioxide. After 2 years, the energy content of the gas had recovered to 80 percent of the value of gas in conventionally developed wells in the area. There is currently no technology capable of remediating deep underground nuclear detonation cavities and chimneys. Consequently, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) must continue to manage the Gasbuggy site to ensure that no inadvertent intrusion into the residual contamination occurs. DOE has complete control over the 1/4 section (160 acres) containing the shot cavity, and no drilling is permitted on that property. However, oil and gas leases are on the surrounding land. Therefore, the most likely route of intrusion and potential exposure would be through contaminated natural gas or contaminated water migrating into a producing natural gas well outside the immediate vicinity of ground zero. The purpose of this report is to describe the current site conditions and evaluate the potential health risks posed by the most plausible

  12. Understanding operational risk capital approximations: First and second orders

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gareth W. Peters

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available We set the context for capital approximation within the framework of the Basel II / III regulatory capital accords. This is particularly topical as the Basel III accord is shortly due to take effect. In this regard, we provide a summary of the role of capital adequacy in the new accord, highlighting along the way the significant loss events that have been attributed to the Operational Risk class that was introduced in the Basel II and III accords. Then we provide a semi-tutorial discussion on the modelling aspects of capital estimation under a Loss Distributional Approach (LDA. Our emphasis is to focuss on the important loss processes with regard to those that contribute most to capital, the so called “high consequence, low frequency" loss processes. This leads us to provide a tutorial overview of heavy tailed loss process modelling in OpRisk under Basel III, with discussion on the implications of such tail assumptions for the severity model in an LDA structure. This provides practitioners with a clear understanding of the features that they may wish to consider when developing OpRisk severity models in practice. From this discussion on heavy tailed severity models, we then develop an understanding of the impact such models have on the right tail asymptotics of the compound loss process and we provide detailed presentation of what are known as first and second order tail approximations for the resulting heavy tailed loss process. From this we develop a tutorial on three key families of risk measures and their equivalent second order asymptotic approximations: Value-at-Risk (Basel III industry standard; Expected Shortfall (ES and the Spectral Risk Measure. These then form the capital approximations. We then provide a few example case studies to illustrate the accuracy of these asymptotic captial approximations, the rate of the convergence of the assymptotic result as a function of the LDA frequency and severity model parameters, the sensitivity

  13. Perioperative risks associated with the operative treatment of clavicle fractures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    d'Heurle, Albert; Le, Toan; Grawe, Brian; Casstevens, E Christopher; Edgington, Jon; Archdeacon, Michael T; Wyrick, John

    2013-11-01

    Clavicle fractures are a common injury among young adults who were historically treated non-operatively with satisfactory outcomes. However, more recent studies have shown a higher nonunion rate for displaced clavicle fractures treated conservatively. The purpose of this study is to investigate the midterm complications, clinical outcomes and overall patient satisfaction after osteosynthesis of midshaft clavicular fractures. A total of 37 patients treated for a clavicle fracture from January 2007 to December 2008 with at least 12 months' follow-up were identified from a billing code search. At the latest follow-up appointment, the patients completed the Constant Shoulder, the Disabilities of the Arm, Shoulder and Hand scale (DASH) and the Medical Outcomes Study 36-Item Short-Form Health Survey version 2.0 (SF36v2) functional outcome surveys as well as a custom questionnaire to assess hand dominance, employment status, the amount of time taken before returning to work, the presence of numbness around the incision site (a surrogate marker of a supraclavicular nerve palsy), whether the patient desired the plate removed and/or if it was worth another surgery. With regard to the functional outcome surveys, the average DASH score was 11.8 ± 16.4, the Constant score was 93.3 ± 7.2, the SF36v2 physical component summary (PCS) was 50.7 ± 10.1 and the SF36v2 mental component summary (MCS) 50.6 ± 11.2. From the custom questionnaire, 27 patients (73%) found their cosmetic appearance acceptable while the remaining 10 patients (27%) were bothered by the appearance of the plate. The average time to return to work was 82.1 ± 77.4 days. There were no infections, refractures or nonunions of the clavicle. As the relative indications for open reduction and internal fixation of clavicle fractures become more popular, such as cosmetic concerns or faster recovery, we wish to demonstrate that the procedure is not without risks, including implant discomfort requiring a subsequent

  14. Holistic Evaluation of Lightweight Operating Systems using the PERCU Method

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kramer, William T.C.; He, Yun (Helen); Carter, Jonathan; Glenski, Joseph; Rippe, Lynn; Cardo, Nicholas

    2008-05-01

    The scale of Leadership Class Systems presents unique challenges to the features and performance of operating system services. This paper reports results of comprehensive evaluations of two Light Weight Operating Systems (LWOS), Cray's Catamount Virtual Node (CVN) and Linux Environment (CLE) operating systems, on the exact same large-scale hardware. The evaluation was carried out over a 5-month period on NERSC's 19,480 core Cray XT-4, Franklin, using a comprehensive evaluation method that spans Performance, Effectiveness, Reliability, Consistency and Usability criteria for all major subsystems and features. The paper presents the results of the comparison between CVN and CLE, evaluates their relative strengths, and reports observations regarding the world's largest Cray XT-4 as well.

  15. Risk assessment of maintenance operations: the analysis of performing task and accident mechanism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carrillo-Castrillo, Jesús A; Rubio-Romero, Juan Carlos; Guadix, Jose; Onieva, Luis

    2015-01-01

    Maintenance operations cover a great number of occupations. Most small and medium-sized enterprises lack the appropriate information to conduct risk assessments of maintenance operations. The objective of this research is to provide a method based on the concepts of task and accident mechanisms for an initial risk assessment by taking into consideration the prevalence and severity of the maintenance accidents reported. Data were gathered from 11,190 reported accidents in maintenance operations in the manufacturing sector of Andalusia from 2003 to 2012. By using a semi-quantitative methodology, likelihood and severity were evaluated based on the actual distribution of accident mechanisms in each of the tasks. Accident mechanisms and tasks were identified by using those variables included in the European Statistics of Accidents at Work methodology. As main results, the estimated risk of the most frequent accident mechanisms identified for each of the analysed tasks is low and the only accident mechanisms with medium risk are accidents when lifting or pushing with physical stress on the musculoskeletal system in tasks involving carrying, and impacts against objects after slipping or stumbling for tasks involving movements. The prioritisation of public preventive actions for the accident mechanisms with a higher estimated risk is highly recommended.

  16. Proposed evaluation framework for assessing operator performance with multisensor displays

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foyle, David C.

    1992-01-01

    Despite aggressive work on the development of sensor fusion algorithms and techniques, no formal evaluation procedures have been proposed. Based on existing integration models in the literature, an evaluation framework is developed to assess an operator's ability to use multisensor, or sensor fusion, displays. The proposed evaluation framework for evaluating the operator's ability to use such systems is a normative approach: The operator's performance with the sensor fusion display can be compared to the models' predictions based on the operator's performance when viewing the original sensor displays prior to fusion. This allows for the determination as to when a sensor fusion system leads to: 1) poorer performance than one of the original sensor displays (clearly an undesirable system in which the fused sensor system causes some distortion or interference); 2) better performance than with either single sensor system alone, but at a sub-optimal (compared to the model predictions) level; 3) optimal performance (compared to model predictions); or, 4) super-optimal performance, which may occur if the operator were able to use some highly diagnostic 'emergent features' in the sensor fusion display, which were unavailable in the original sensor displays. An experiment demonstrating the usefulness of the proposed evaluation framework is discussed.

  17. Operational tools to build a multicriteria territorial risk scale with multiple stakeholders

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cailloux, Olivier; Mayag, Brice; Meyer, Patrick; Mousseau, Vincent

    2013-01-01

    Evaluating and comparing the threats and vulnerabilities associated with territorial zones according to multiple criteria (industrial activity, population, etc.) can be a time-consuming task and often requires the participation of several stakeholders. Rather than a direct evaluation of these zones, building a risk assessment scale and using it in a formal procedure permits to automate the assessment and therefore to apply it in a repeated way and in large-scale contexts and, provided the chosen procedure and scale are accepted, to make it objective. One of the main difficulties of building such a formal evaluation procedure is to account for the multiple decision makers' preferences. The procedure used in this article, ELECTRE TRI, uses the performances of each territorial zone on multiple criteria, together with preferential parameters from multiple decision makers, to qualitatively assess their associated risk level. We also present operational tools in order to implement such a procedure in practice, and show their use on a detailed example

  18. Operational Risk Assessment and Management in Small and Medium-sized Enterprises

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Viktorija Stasytytė

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Modern organizations have raised a need to actively and quickly react to the changes in external business environment, as well as in internal processes considering not only the present situation, but also evaluating possible changes and forecasting the future. Enterprise risk assessment and management, which is strongly related with foreseeing the uncertain future, becomes topical not only scientifically, but also practically seeking to reveal new and unique solutions. Operational risk management in small and medium enterprises, creating the largest part of value added in the whole European Union, demands a separate attention and coordinated decisions and means. The objective of the paper – to analyse the process of enterprise risk management in small and medium-sized enterprises, as well as to propose adequate risk management solutions for these companies. After performing a research, it was found out that small and medium enterprises more than big organizations require a risk management strategy and methodology, need to distinguish activity objectives and events influencing them, and they can efficiently apply a risk portfolio method to manage risk. In small and medium enterprises it is recommended to incorporate a risk management system based on COSO ERM model that can be modified depending on company needs and possibilities, turning it into less formal and structured and easily applicable.

  19. Methodology for Risk Analysis of Dam Gates and Associated Operating Equipment Using Fault Tree Analysis

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Patev, Robert C; Putcha, Chandra; Foltz, Stuart D

    2005-01-01

    .... This report summarizes research on methodologies to assist in quantifying risks related to dam gates and associated operating equipment, and how those risks relate to overall spillway failure risk...

  20. INTRODUCTION TO THE SPECIAL ISSUE ON "OPERATIONAL RESEARCH AND ASIA RISK MANAGEMENT"

    OpenAIRE

    DESHENG DASH WU; DAVID L. OLSON; LUIS A. SECO; JOHN BIRGE

    2011-01-01

    Risks are traditionally defined as the combination of probability and severity, but are actually characterized by additional factors. We believe the characteristics of risks include uncertainties, dynamics, dependence, clusterings and complexities, which motivate the utilization of various operational research tools. The objective of this issue is to survey the practice of using operational research tools in risk management, especially Asian risk management.

  1. Evaluation of Composite-Hull Ships Operating in Arctic Ice

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-06-01

    COMPOSITE- HULL SHIPS OPERATING IN ARCTIC ICE by Ryan M. Tran June 2016 Thesis Advisor: Young W. Kwon Co-Advisor: Jarema M. Didoszak THIS...Master’s thesis 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE EVALUATION OF COMPOSITE- HULL SHIPS OPERATING IN ARCTIC ICE 5. FUNDING NUMBERS 6. AUTHOR Ryan M. Tran 7...melting ice caps. Extensive research is thus being conducted to determine the interaction between ice and steel- hulls in anticipation of opening sea

  2. Savannah River Site peer evaluator standards: Operator assessment for restart

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1990-01-01

    Savannah River Site has implemented a Peer Evaluator program for the assessment of certified Central Control Room Operators, Central Control Room Supervisors and Shift Technical Engineers prior to restart. This program is modeled after the nuclear Regulatory Commission's (NRC's) Examiner Standard, ES-601, for the requalification of licensed operators in the commercial utility industry. It has been tailored to reflect the unique differences between Savannah River production reactors and commercial power reactors

  3. Design and Operation of the Transformed National Healthy Start Evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Banks, Jamelle E; Dwyer, Maura; Hirai, Ashley; Ghandour, Reem M; Atrash, Hani K

    2017-12-01

    Purpose Improving pregnancy outcomes for women and children is one of the nation's top priorities. The Healthy Start (HS) program was created to address factors that contribute to high infant mortality rates (IMRs) and persistent disparities in IMRs. The program began in 1991 and was transformed in 2014 to apply lessons from emerging research, past evaluation findings, and expert recommendations. To understand the implementation and impact of the transformed program, there is a need for a robust and comprehensive evaluation. Description The national HS evaluation will include an implementation evaluation, which will describe program components that affect outcomes; a utilization evaluation, which will examine the characteristics of women and infants who did and did not utilize the program; and an outcome evaluation, which will assess the program's effectiveness with regard to producing expected outcomes among the target population. Data sources include the National HS Program Survey, a HS participant survey, and individual-level program data linked to vital records and the Pregnancy Risk Assessment Monitoring System (PRAMS) survey. Assessment Descriptive analyses will be used to examine differences in risk profiles between participants and non-participants, as well as to calculate penetration rates for high-risk women in respective service areas. Multivariable analyses will be used to determine the impact of the program on key outcomes and will explore variation by dose, type of services received, and grantee characteristics. Conclusion Evaluation findings are expected to inform program decisions and direction, including identification of effective program components that can be spread and scaled.

  4. A methodology for nuclear power plant operational events evaluation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Araujo, Jeferson, E-mail: jeferson@cnen.gov.br [Comissao Nacional de Energia Nuclear (CGRC/CNEN), Rio de janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Coordenacao Geral de Reatores e do Ciclo de Combustivel; Costa, Sergio Dias, E-mail: sergiodiascosta@hotmail.com [Instituto de Engenharia Nuclear (IEN/CNEN-RJ), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

    2015-07-01

    Operational events are normal occurrences in industrial plants and in nuclear power plants. The evaluation of operational events gains importance when it comes specifically to nuclear power plants due to the proportions that the impact and the consequences of these events may cause to the installation itself, their workers, the external area of the nuclear installation, the environment and to the public in general. These consequences, for the operation of these facilities can range from very little, until the consequences that lead to accidents and can cause significant impacts. Operational events may be associated or have influence in many fields of knowledge, such as operation, maintenance, engineering, Radiological Protection, physical protection, chemistry, Human or Organizational Factors and external events, among others. The accident at the Fukushima Daichi nuclear power plant, shows the importance of exhausting all the studies concerning operational events in order to improve the operational safety of nuclear plants, considering all the causes and possible consequences. In this context, the evaluation of operational events discipline emerges as an important and relevant tool to contribute to the maintenance and/or improvement of the operational safety of nuclear installations. Not without reason the nuclear industry actively participates in programs of exchange of operational experience, where relevant events are thoroughly evaluated and discussed in specific forums, such as power plant operators, regulators and/or joint technical meetings, always with the purpose to prevent, minimize or mitigate its consequences. Any evaluation of operational events passes necessarily by an in-depth study of the circumstances of the event, culminating with the identification of your cause and proposition of corrective actions to prevent recurrence of similar events. Additionally, the events should not be studied individually, but evaluated within a temporal context in order

  5. A methodology for nuclear power plant operational events evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Araujo, Jeferson

    2015-01-01

    Operational events are normal occurrences in industrial plants and in nuclear power plants. The evaluation of operational events gains importance when it comes specifically to nuclear power plants due to the proportions that the impact and the consequences of these events may cause to the installation itself, their workers, the external area of the nuclear installation, the environment and to the public in general. These consequences, for the operation of these facilities can range from very little, until the consequences that lead to accidents and can cause significant impacts. Operational events may be associated or have influence in many fields of knowledge, such as operation, maintenance, engineering, Radiological Protection, physical protection, chemistry, Human or Organizational Factors and external events, among others. The accident at the Fukushima Daichi nuclear power plant, shows the importance of exhausting all the studies concerning operational events in order to improve the operational safety of nuclear plants, considering all the causes and possible consequences. In this context, the evaluation of operational events discipline emerges as an important and relevant tool to contribute to the maintenance and/or improvement of the operational safety of nuclear installations. Not without reason the nuclear industry actively participates in programs of exchange of operational experience, where relevant events are thoroughly evaluated and discussed in specific forums, such as power plant operators, regulators and/or joint technical meetings, always with the purpose to prevent, minimize or mitigate its consequences. Any evaluation of operational events passes necessarily by an in-depth study of the circumstances of the event, culminating with the identification of your cause and proposition of corrective actions to prevent recurrence of similar events. Additionally, the events should not be studied individually, but evaluated within a temporal context in order

  6. The evaluation of operator reliability factors on power reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Karlina, Itjeu; Supriatna, Piping; W, Suharyo; Santosa, Kussigit; Darlis; S, Bambang; Y, Sasongko

    1999-01-01

    The sophisticated technology system was not assured the reliability system itself because it has contained a part of human dependence affected successfully of reactor operation either how work smoothly and safe or failure ac cured and then accident appears promptly. The evaluation of operator reliability factor on ABWR power reactor has been carried out which consist of criterion skill and workload according to NUREG/CR-2254, NUREG/CR-4016 and NUREG-0835 the reactor operation reliability emphasize to the operator are synergic between skill and workload themselves. The employee's skill will affect to the type and level of their tasks. The operator's skill depend on education and experiences, position or responsibility of tasks, physical conditions (age uninvalid of physic/mental

  7. From risk analysis to risk control in land transport of dangerous materials. Contribution of quantitative evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hubert, Ph.; Pages, P.

    1985-03-01

    The different approaches of risks and risk management system are described: statistics, potential risk, prevention, information and intervention. Quantitative evaluation is developed: data collection, purposes and methods. Two examples of application are given on risks associated to road transport of propane and of uranium hexafluoride. In conclusion level of risk and practical use of studies on risks are examined. 41 refs [fr

  8. IBM PC/IX operating system evaluation plan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dominick, Wayne D. (Editor); Granier, Martin; Hall, Philip P.; Triantafyllopoulos, Spiros

    1984-01-01

    An evaluation plan for the IBM PC/IX Operating System designed for IBM PC/XT computers is discussed. The evaluation plan covers the areas of performance measurement and evaluation, software facilities available, man-machine interface considerations, networking, and the suitability of PC/IX as a development environment within the University of Southwestern Louisiana NASA PC Research and Development project. In order to compare and evaluate the PC/IX system, comparisons with other available UNIX-based systems are also included.

  9. Independent auto evaluation of an operative radiological protection program

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Medrano L, M.A.; Rodriguez C, C.C.; Linares R, D.; Zarate M, N.; Zempoalteca B, R.

    2006-01-01

    The program of operative radiological protection of a nuclear power plant consists of multiple procedures and associate tasks that have as purpose the radiological protection of the workers of the power station. It is for this reason that the constant evaluation of the one it programs it is an important tool in the identification of their weaknesses (and strengths), so they can be assisted appropriately. In this work the main elements of the program of independent auto evaluation of the program of operative radiological protection of the Laguna Verde Central that has been developed and implemented by the National Institute of Nuclear Research are described. (Author)

  10. The Risk Assessment at the Workplace of Assembly Operation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marek Burda

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Risk Assessment Process by FMEA method involve hazard identification, risk assessment and risk control processes and their input is fundamental to a successful EH&S system. This Risk assessment tool follows the general process and requirements of the Health and Safety Risk Assessment Procedure.

  11. "Who Bravely Dares Must Sometimes Risk a Fall." The Balance Between Tactical and Operational Risk in War

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Higginbotham, Chris

    2004-01-01

    ... in consequence to reducing operational risk. This represents a change from the way in which United States forces have historically trained for sequential attrition based, vice simultaneous maneuver operations...

  12. Risk Management: An Integral Part of Operational Planning

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Latrash, Frederick

    1999-01-01

    ...) and Joint Task Force (JTF) Commander to achieve military objectives. Risk Management (RM) is a five step process that identifies hazards, assesses risks and implements controls to reduce risks to an acceptable level...

  13. An assessment of the risk significance of human errors in selected PSAs and operating events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Palla, R.L. Jr.; El-Bassioni, A.

    1991-01-01

    Sensitivity studies based on Probabilistic Safety Assessments (PSAs) for a pressurized water reactor and a boiling water reactor are described. In each case human errors modeled in the PSAs were categorized according to such factors as error type, location, timing, and plant personnel involved. Sensitivity studies were then conducted by varying the error rates in each category and evaluating the corresponding change in total core damage frequency and accident sequence frequency. Insights obtained are discussed and reasons for differences in risk sensitivity between plants are explored. A separate investigation into the role of human error in risk-important operating events is also described. This investigation involved the analysis of data from the USNRC Accident Sequence Precursor program to determine the effect of operator-initiated events on accident precursor trends, and to determine whether improved training can be correlated to current trends. The findings of this study are also presented. 5 refs., 15 figs., 1 tab

  14. Risk Importance Measures in the Designand Operation of Nuclear Power Plants

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vrbanic I.; Samanta P.; Basic, I

    2017-10-31

    This monograph presents and discusses risk importance measures as quantified by the probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) models of nuclear power plants (NPPs) developed according to the current standards and practices. Usually, PRA tools calculate risk importance measures related to a single ?basic event? representing particular failure mode. This is, then, reflected in many current PRA applications. The monograph focuses on the concept of ?component-level? importance measures that take into account different failure modes of the component including common-cause failures (CCFs). In opening sections the roleof risk assessment in safety analysis of an NPP is introduced and discussion given of ?traditional?, mainly deterministic, design principles which have been established to assign a level of importance to a particular system, structure or component. This is followed by an overview of main risk importance measures for risk increase and risk decrease from current PRAs. Basic relations which exist among the measures are shown. Some of the current practical applications of risk importancemeasures from the field of NPP design, operation and regulation are discussed. The core of the monograph provides a discussion on theoreticalbackground and practical aspects of main risk importance measures at the level of ?component? as modeled in a PRA, starting from the simplest case, single basic event, and going toward more complexcases with multiple basic events and involvements in CCF groups. The intent is to express the component-level importance measures via theimportance measures and probabilities of the underlying single basic events, which are the inputs readily available from a PRA model andits results. Formulas are derived and discussed for some typical cases. The formulas and their results are demonstrated through some practicalexamples, done by means of a simplified PRA model developed in and run by RiskSpectrum? tool, which are presented in the appendices. The

  15. Designs for Risk Evaluation and Management

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2015-12-01

    The Designs for Risk Evaluation and Management (DREAM) tool was developed as part of the effort to quantify the risk of geologic storage of carbon dioxide (CO2) under the U.S. Department of Energy's National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP). DREAM is an optimization tool created to identify optimal monitoring schemes that minimize the time to first detection of CO2 leakage from a subsurface storage formation. DREAM acts as a post-processer on user-provided output from subsurface leakage simulations. While DREAM was developed for CO2 leakage scenarios, it is applicable to any subsurface leakage simulation of the same output format. The DREAM tool is comprised of three main components: (1) a Java wizard used to configure and execute the simulations, (2) a visualization tool to view the domain space and optimization results, and (3) a plotting tool used to analyze the results. A secondary Java application is provided to aid users in converting common American Standard Code for Information Interchange (ASCII) output data to the standard DREAM hierarchical data format (HDF5). DREAM employs a simulated annealing approach that searches the solution space by iteratively mutating potential monitoring schemes built of various configurations of monitoring locations and leak detection parameters. This approach has proven to be orders of magnitude faster than an exhaustive search of the entire solution space. The user's manual illustrates the program graphical user interface (GUI), describes the tool inputs, and includes an example application.

  16. JCL roundtable: Risk evaluation and mitigation strategy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, W Virgil; Bramlet, Dean A; Ross, Joyce L; Underberg, James A

    Many factors enter into the decision by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to approve a new drug for use by physicians and other health care providers in treating diseases. Initially, the FDA authority was restricted to issues of safety and only later did the documentation of efficacy become part of the review process required for approval. However, all drugs have the potential for causing harm at some dose level to all and at lower doses in certain patients with vulnerability to the particular pharmacology of the agent. As new drugs have been designed to manage disorders that are uncommon, but of significant consequence, they may have adverse effects that are acceptable only because they are so uniquely beneficial to these specific conditions. The risk of these adverse effects may be acceptable since the benefit can outweigh the harm in most patients and the adversity can be predicted and managed. The approval of this category of drugs has grown rapidly since definition of a mechanism of action to manage and modify the risk has been provided by a process known as known as Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy or "REMS." In 2007, the Food and Drug Administration Amendments Act (FDAAA) allowed the FDA to require postmarketing studies and the authority to mandate the implementation of a REMS for drugs with efficacy but documented potential for harm. Two relatively new drugs useful in the management of severe elevations of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol have been approved under a requirement for a REMS. These are lomitapide, an inhibitor of microsomal triglyceride transfer protein and mipomersen, an antisense oligonucleotide which reduces the synthesis of apolipoprotein B. Copyright © 2016 National Lipid Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. Higher operational safety of nuclear power plants by evaluating the behaviour of operating personnel

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mertins, M.; Glasner, P.

    1990-01-01

    In the GDR power reactors have been operated since 1966. Since that time operational experiences of 73 cumulative reactor years have been collected. The behaviour of operating personnel is an essential factor to guarantee the safety of operation of the nuclear power plant. Therefore a continuous analysis of the behaviour of operating personnel has been introduced at the GDR nuclear power plants. In the paper the overall system of the selection, preparation and control of the behaviour of nuclear power plant operating personnel is presented. The methods concerned are based on recording all errors of operating personnel and on analyzing them in order to find out the reasons. The aim of the analysis of reasons is to reduce the number of errors. By a feedback of experiences the nuclear safety of the nuclear power plant can be increased. All data necessary for the evaluation of errors are recorded and evaluated by a computer program. This method is explained thoroughly in the paper. Selected results of error analysis are presented. It is explained how the activities of the personnel are made safer by means of this analysis. Comparisons with other methods are made. (author). 3 refs, 4 figs

  18. The Operational Risk in the Outlook of the Basel II Accord Implementation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrei Tinca

    2007-05-01

    Full Text Available The financial scandals în the last two decades have determined the Basel Committee to improve the risk controls for banks în general, and for operational risk in particular. Operational risk covers all non-market or credit risk, therefore including management risk, IT and fraud risk. By the Basel II Accord, the Committee proposes three risk measurement methods, which induce increasing costs, but also greater reductions în a bank’s capital reserve, and thus în its operating costs.

  19. 46 CFR 8.535 - Training and operational evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... will report periodically to the cognizant OCMI and the Company SIP Agent on the vessel's performance...) have been approved by the cognizant OCMI, the company may begin training and operating under the plans. This evaluation phase includes the following: (a) The company shall provide the designated SIP support...

  20. Safety evaluation of the Dalat research reactor operation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Long, V.H.; Lam, P.V.; An, T.K.

    1989-01-01

    After an introduction presenting the essential characteristics of the Dalat Nuclear Research Reactor, the document presents i) The safety assurance condition of the reactor, ii) Its safety behaviour after 5 years of operation, iii) Safety research being realized on the reactor. Following is questionnaire of safety evaluation and a list of attachments, which concern the reactor

  1. Method for evaluating operator inputs to digital controllers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Venhuizen, J.R.

    1983-01-01

    Most industrial processes employ operator-interactive control systems. The performance of these control systems is influenced by the choice of control station (device through which operator enters control commands). While the importance of proper control-station selection is widely accepted, standard and simple selection methods are not available for the control station using color-graphics terminals. This paper describes a unique facility for evaluating the effectiveness of various control stations. In the facility, a process is simulated on a hybrid computer, color-graphics display terminals provide information to the operator, and different control stations accept input commands to control the simulation. Tests are being conducted to evaluate a keyboard, a graphics tablet, and a CRT touch panel for use as control stations on a nuclear power plant. Preliminary results indicate that our facility can be used to determine those situations where each type of station is advantageous

  2. AEOD (Office for Analysis and Evaluation of Operational Data)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1989-06-01

    The annual report of the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission's Office for Analysis and Evaluation of Operational Data (AEOD) is devoted to the activities performed during 1988. The report is published in two separate parts. The report is published in two separate parts. NUREG-1272, Vol. 3, No. 1, covers Power Reactors and presents an overview of the operating experience of the nuclear power industry, including comments about the trends of some key performance measures. The report also includes the principal findings and issues identified in AEOD studies over the past year and summarizes information from Licensee Event Reports, Diagnostic Evaluations, and reports to the NRC's Operations Center. NUREG-1272, Vol. 3, No. 2, covers Nonreactors and presents a review of the nonreactor events and misadministrations that were reported in 1988 and a brief synopsis of AEOD studies published in 1988. Each volume contains a list of the AEOD reports issued for 1980--1988. 15 figs., 10 tabs

  3. EVALUATION OF RISKS AND WASTE CHARACTERIZATION REQUIREMENTS FOR THE TRANSURANIC WASTE EMPLACED IN WIPP DURING 1999

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Channell, J.K.; Walker, B.A.

    2000-01-01

    Specifically this report: 1. Compares requirements of the WAP that are pertinent from a technical viewpoint with the WIPP pre-Permit waste characterization program, 2. Presents the results of a risk analysis of the currently emplaced wastes. Expected and bounding risks from routine operations and possible accidents are evaluated; and 3. Provides conclusions and recommendations

  4. 76 FR 57767 - Proposed Generic Communication; Draft NRC Generic Letter 2011-XX: Seismic Risk Evaluations for...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-09-16

    ... NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION [NRC-2011-0204] Proposed Generic Communication; Draft NRC Generic Letter 2011-XX: Seismic Risk Evaluations for Operating Reactors AGENCY: Nuclear Regulatory Commission... FR 54507), that requested public comment on Draft NRC Generic Letter 2011- XX: Seismic Risk...

  5. Operation of inspection data acquisition and evaluation system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Takahashi, Yoichi; Harada, Hiroshi; Watanabe, Masayuki; Sakaguchi, Makoto; Ishikawa, Masayuki

    2016-01-01

    Rokkasho Reprocessing Plant (RRP) is a large scale plant to treat a huge amount of Plutonium significant for safeguards. The LArge SCAle Reprocessing plant safeguards (LASCAR) Forum recommended an effective utilization of unattended verification systems and automated data acquisition system etc. Based on LASCAR recommendation, Nuclear Material Control Center (NMCC) has developed the inspection data acquisition system as the automated data acquisition system from the unattended verification systems (including non-destructive assay equipment, solution monitoring system and surveillance camera). The data gathered from the unattended verification system are provided to the inspection data evaluation system for the State and the IAEA. In this development, redundancy concepts for data transfer line, in order to prevent inspection data missing, were introduced, and the timely confirmation of solution behaver such as material flows and inventories by the solution monitoring can be achieved. Furthermore, for purpose of efficiency of evaluation of inspection activity for the State, NMCC has developed the inspection data evaluation system which operates automated partition of inspection data coming from each verification equipment. Additionally, the inspection data system evaluation can manage the inspection activities and their efforts. These development and operation have been funded by JSGO (Japan Safeguards Office). This paper describes development history and operation of the inspection data acquisition and evaluation system. (author)

  6. Realistic minimum accident source terms - Evaluation, application, and risk acceptance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Angelo, P. L.

    2009-01-01

    The evaluation, application, and risk acceptance for realistic minimum accident source terms can represent a complex and arduous undertaking. This effort poses a very high impact to design, construction cost, operations and maintenance, and integrated safety over the expected facility lifetime. At the 2005 Nuclear Criticality Safety Division (NCSD) Meeting in Knoxville Tenn., two papers were presented mat summarized the Y-12 effort that reduced the number of criticality accident alarm system (CAAS) detectors originally designed for the new Highly Enriched Uranium Materials Facility (HEUMF) from 258 to an eventual as-built number of 60. Part of that effort relied on determining a realistic minimum accident source term specific to the facility. Since that time, the rationale for an alternate minimum accident has been strengthened by an evaluation process that incorporates realism. A recent update to the HEUMF CAAS technical basis highlights the concepts presented here. (authors)

  7. A review of operational risk in banks and its role in the financial crisis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Erika de Jongh

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available The role of operational risk in the 2007/2008 financial crisis is explored. The factors that gave rise to the crisis are examined and it is found that although the event is largely regarded as a credit crisis, operational risk factors played a significant role in fuelling its duration and severity. It is concluded that, from an operational risk perspective, 2008 was the worst on record. Considering the extensive role of operational risk in global financial calamities, suggestions are made to improve the management of this risk type.

  8. Nuclear data standards - International Evaluation Co-operation volume 7

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carlson, A.D.; Shibata, K.; Vonach, H.; Hambsch, F.J.; Chen, Z.; Hofmann, H.M.; Oh, S.Y.; Badikov, S.A.; Gai, E.V.; Pronyaev, V.G.; Smith, D.L.; Hale, G.M.; Kawano, T.; Larson, N.M.

    2006-01-01

    A Working Party on International Evaluation Co-operation was established under the sponsorship of the OECD/NEA Nuclear Science Committee (NSC) to promote the exchange of information on nuclear data evaluations, validation and related topics. Its aim is also to provide a framework for co-operative activities between members of the major nuclear data evaluation projects. This includes the possible exchange of scientists in order to encourage co-operation. Requirements for experimental data resulting from this activity are compiled. The working party determines common criteria for evaluated nuclear data files with a view to assessing and improving the quality and completeness of evaluated data. The parties to the project are: ENDF (United States), JEFF/EFF (NEA Data Bank member countries) and JENDL (Japan). Co-operation with evaluation projects of non-OECD countries is organised through the Nuclear Data Section of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). This report was issued by Subgroup 7, which was in charge of producing new evaluated neutron cross-section standards. When starting the project, there was a general consensus on the need to update these standards, as significant improvements had been made to the experimental database since 1991 when the last evaluation of these standards was performed. The present work was accomplished through efficient collaboration between a task force of the US Cross-section Evaluation Working Group (CSEWG), a Co-ordinated Research Project (CRP) of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and Subgroup 7 of the Working Party on International Evaluation Co-operation (WPEC) of the NEA Nuclear Science Committee. Work is reported on the results of an international effort to evaluate the neutron cross-section standards. The evaluations include the H(n,n), 6 Li(n,t), 10 B(n,α), 10 B(n,α1γ), 197 Au(n,γ), 235 U(n,f) and 238 U(n,f) standard reactions. Evaluations were also produced for the non-standard 238 U(n,γ) and 239 Pu

  9. Evaluation of Electrocardiographic Changes after Arterial Switch Operation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hamid Amoozgar

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Background: Transposition of Great Arteries (TGA is a serious congenital heart disease which can be accompanied by good outcomes with anatomic correction within the first few weeks of life. Objectives: The present study aimed to evaluate electrocardiographic changes in the children with uncomplicated Arterial Switch Operation (ASO. Patients and Methods: Twelve lead electrocardiograms were obtained from thirty-three patients with TGA after ASO. Then, the patients’ QT-dispersion and P-wave dispersion were compared to those of 33 age- and gender-matched individuals as the normal control group. Both groups were also evaluated by M-mode echocardiography. Student’s t-test and Pearson correlation were used to analyze the data. Besides, P < 0.05 was considered as statistically significant. Results: The mean age of the patients and the control group was 41 ± 3.7 and 40.12 ± 4.2 months, respectively. Comparison of P wave, T wave, QRS complex, PR interval, QT segment, and corrected QT segment showed significant differences in the frequency of inverted T wave in pericardial leads [V3, V4, V5, and V6] (P = 0.004; more in patients, P wave amplitude in lead II (P < 0.001; more in patients, R wave amplitude in V1 (P = 0.016; smaller in patients, R and S waves amplitude in V6 (P = 0.004 and P = 0.001; taller in patients, corrected QT segment (in lead V5; P < 0.0001: prolonger in patients, and PR interval (P = 0.001; prolonger in patients. However, no significant differences were found regarding the vector axis and heart rate. Right bundle branch block (18% vs. 0%, Bifascicular (3% vs. 0%, and first-degree blocks (15% vs. 0% were significantly more in the patients. Besides, the PR interval was longer in the corrected complex TGA (146 ± 24.4 vs. 127.7 ± 23.1, P = 0.001. Moreover, R/S ratio in lead V1 was significantly prolonger, among the patients (2.86 ± 3.35 vs. 0.706 ± 0.53, P = 0.002. Nonetheless, no significant was observed between the patients and

  10. Consumer Evaluations of Food Risk Management Quality in Europe

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kleef, van E.; Houghton, J.R.; Krystallis, A.; Pfenning, U.; Rowe, G.; Dijk, van H.; Lans, van der I.A.; Frewer, L.J.

    2007-01-01

    In developing and implementing appropriate food risk management strategies, it is important to understand how consumers evaluate the quality of food risk management practices. The aim of this study is to model the underlying psychological factors influencing consumer evaluations of food risk

  11. 75 FR 50936 - Loan Policies and Operations; Lending and Leasing Limits and Risk Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-08-18

    ...-AC60 Loan Policies and Operations; Lending and Leasing Limits and Risk Management AGENCY: Farm Credit... sound operation of System institutions by strengthening their risk management practices and abilities to... the establishment of consistent, uniform and prudent concentration risk management policies by System...

  12. The development and application of dynamic operational risk assessment in oil/gas and chemical process industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yang Xiaole; Mannan, M. Sam

    2010-01-01

    A methodology of dynamic operational risk assessment (DORA) is proposed for operational risk analysis in oil/gas and chemical industries. The methodology is introduced comprehensively starting from the conceptual framework design to mathematical modeling and to decision making based on cost-benefit analysis. The probabilistic modeling part of DORA integrates stochastic modeling and process dynamics modeling to evaluate operational risk. The stochastic system-state trajectory is modeled according to the abnormal behavior or failure of each component. For each of the possible system-state trajectories, a process dynamics evaluation is carried out to check whether process variables, e.g., level, flow rate, temperature, pressure, or chemical concentration, remain in their desirable regions. Component testing/inspection intervals and repair times are critical parameters to define the system-state configuration, and play an important role for evaluating the probability of operational failure. This methodology not only provides a framework to evaluate the dynamic operational risk in oil/gas and chemical industries, but also guides the process design and further optimization. To illustrate the probabilistic study, we present a case-study of a level control in an oil/gas separator at an offshore plant.

  13. Economic evaluation of nuclear reactor operation utilizing power effect

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Budinsky, M.; Mydliar, J.

    1988-01-01

    The operation of a reactor at the so-called power effect may substantially increase the burnup of fuel to be removed. The aim of the evaluation of such reactor operation is the optimal determination of the time over which the yield of the higher use of fuel exceeds economic losses resulting from the increased share of constant expenditure of the price of generated kWh of electric power which ensues from such operation. A mathematical model is presented for such evaluation of reactor operation with regard to benefits for the national economy which is the basis of the ESTER 2 computer program. The calculations show that the prices of generated and delivered kWh are minimally 2% less than the prices of generated power without the power effect use. The minimum ranges in the interval of 30 to 50 days. The dependence of the price of generated and delivered kWh from the point of view of the operator of the power plant as well as the component of fuel price of generated kWh will not reach the minimum even after 50 days of operation. From the operating and physical points of view the duration of power effect is not expected to exceed 20 to 30 days which means that from the point of view of the national economy the price of generated and delivered kWh will be 1.6 to 2% less and the fuel component of the price of the generated kWh will be 3 to 4.5% lower. (Z.M.). 5 figs., 3 refs

  14. Use of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) in expert systems to advise nuclear plant operators and managers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Uhrig, R.E.

    1988-01-01

    The use of expert systems in nuclear power plants to provide advice to managers, supervisors and/or operators is a concept that is rapidly gaining acceptance. Generally, expert systems rely on the expertise of human experts or knowledge that has been codified in publications, books, or regulations to provide advice under a wide variety of conditions. In this work, a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) of a nuclear power plant performed previously is used to assess the safety status of nuclear power plants and to make recommendations to the plant personnel. Nuclear power plants have many redundant systems and can continue to operate when one or more of these systems is disabled or removed from service for maintenance or testing. PRAs provide a means of evaluating the risk to the public associated with the operation of nuclear power plants with components or systems out of service. While the choice of the source term and methodology in a PRA may influence the absolute probability and consequences of a core melt, the ratio of the PRA calculations for two configurations of the same plant, carried out on a consistent basis, can readily identify the increase in risk associated with going from one configuration to the other

  15. Collision risk investigation for an operational spacecraft caused by space debris

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Binbin; Wang, Zhaokui; Zhang, Yulin

    2017-04-01

    The collision probability between an operational spacecraft and a population of space debris is investigated. By dividing the 3-dimensional operational space of the spacecraft into several space volume cells (SVC) and proposing a boundary selection method to calculate the collision probability in each SVC, the distribution of the collision risk, as functions of the time, the orbital height, the declination, the impact elevation, the collision velocity, etc., can be obtained. Thus, the collision risk could be carefully evaluated over a time span for the general orbital configurations of the spacecraft and the space debris. As an application, the collision risk for the Tiangong-2 space laboratory caused by the cataloged space debris is discussed and evaluated. Results show that most of the collision threat comes from the front left and front right in Tiangong-2's local, quasi-horizontal plane. And the collision probability will also accumulate when Tiangong-2 moves to the largest declinations (about {±} 42°). As a result, the manned space activities should be avoided at those declinations.

  16. Risk-informed optimal routing of ships considering different damage scenarios and operational conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Decò, Alberto; Frangopol, Dan M.

    2013-01-01

    The aim of this paper is the development of a risk-informed decision tool for the optimal mission-oriented routing of ships. The strength of the hull is investigated by modeling the midship section with finite elements and by analyzing different damage levels depending on the propagation of plastification throughout the section. Vertical and horizontal flexural interaction is investigated. Uncertainties associated with geometry and material properties are accounted for by means of the implementation of the response surface method. Load effects are evaluated using strip theory. Reliability analysis is performed for several ship operational conditions and considering four different limit states. Then, risk is assessed by including the direct losses associated with five investigated damage states. The effects of corrosion on aged ships are included in the proposed approach. Polar representation of load effects, reliability, and direct risk are presented for a large spectrum of operational conditions. Finally, the optimal routing of ships is obtained by minimizing both the estimated time of arrival and the expected direct risk, which are clearly conflicting objectives. The optimization process provides feasible solutions belonging to the Pareto front. The proposed approach is applied to a Joint High Speed Sealift

  17. Operating room fires in otolaryngology: risk factors and prevention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Lee P; Roy, Soham

    2011-01-01

    The aim of the study was to characterize the causes of operating room (OR) fires in otolaryngology. A questionnaire was designed to elicit the characteristics of OR fires experienced by otolaryngologists. The survey was advertised to 8523 members of the American Academy of Otolaryngology-Head and Neck Surgery. Three hundred forty-nine questionnaires were completed. Eighty-eight surgeons (25.2%) witnessed at least one OR fire in their career, 10 experienced 2 fires each, and 2 reported 5 fires each. Of 106 reported fires, details were available for 100. The most common ignition sources were an electrosurgical unit (59%), a laser (32%), and a light cord (7%). Twenty-seven percent of fires occurred during endoscopic airway surgery, 24% during oropharyngeal surgery, 23% during cutaneous or transcutaneous surgery of the head and neck, and 18% during tracheostomy; 7% were related to a light cord, and 1% was related to an anesthesia machine. Eighty-one percent of fires occurred while supplemental oxygen was in use. Common fuels included an endotracheal tube (31%), OR drapes/towels (18%), and flash fire (where no substrate burned) (11%). Less common fuels included alcohol-based preparation solution, gauze sponges, patient's hair or skin, electrosurgical unit with retrofitted insulation over the tip, tracheostomy tube, tonsil sponge, suction tubing, a cottonoid pledget, and a red rubber catheter. OR fire may occur in a wide variety of clinical settings; endoscopic airway surgery, oropharyngeal surgery, cutaneous surgery, and tracheostomy present the highest risk for otolaryngologists. Electrosurgical devices and lasers are the most likely to produce ignition. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. Operational Performance Risk Assessment in Support of A Supervisory Control System

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Denning, Richard S. [Self Employed; Muhlheim, Michael David [ORNL; Cetiner, Sacit M. [ORNL; Guler Yigitoglu, Askin [ORNL

    2017-06-01

    Supervisory control system (SCS) is developed for multi-unit advanced small modular reactors to minimize human interventions in both normal and abnormal operations. In SCS, control action decisions made based on probabilistic risk assessment approach via Event Trees/Fault Trees. Although traditional PRA tools are implemented, their scope is extended to normal operations and application is reversed; success of non-safety related system instead failure of safety systems this extended PRA approach called as operational performance risk assessment (OPRA). OPRA helps to identify success paths, combination of control actions for transients and to quantify these success paths to provide possible actions without activating plant protection system. In this paper, a case study of the OPRA in supervisory control system is demonstrated within the context of the ALMR PRISM design, specifically power conversion system. The scenario investigated involved a condition that the feed water control valve is observed to be drifting to the closed position. Alternative plant configurations were identified via OPRA that would allow the plant to continue to operate at full or reduced power. Dynamic analyses were performed with a thermal-hydraulic model of the ALMR PRISM system using Modelica to evaluate remained safety margins. Successful recovery paths for the selected scenario are identified and quantified via SCS.

  19. Evaluation of Cardiovascular Risk Scores Applied to NASA's Astronant Corps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jain, I.; Charvat, J. M.; VanBaalen, M.; Lee, L.; Wear, M. L.

    2014-01-01

    In an effort to improve cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk prediction, this analysis evaluates and compares the applicability of multiple CVD risk scores to the NASA Astronaut Corps which is extremely healthy at selection.

  20. Diagnosis and Tests: Evaluating a Fall or Risk of Falling

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... as a physical therapist, who can evaluate your fall risk. If your healthcare provider concludes that you are ... to check for things that can impact your fall risk, such as electrolyte balance and the possibility of ...

  1. Ergonomic evaluation model of operational room based on team performance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    YANG Zhiyi

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available A theoretical calculation model based on the ergonomic evaluation of team performance was proposed in order to carry out the ergonomic evaluation of the layout design schemes of the action station in a multitasking operational room. This model was constructed in order to calculate and compare the theoretical value of team performance in multiple layout schemes by considering such substantial influential factors as frequency of communication, distance, angle, importance, human cognitive characteristics and so on. An experiment was finally conducted to verify the proposed model under the criteria of completion time and accuracy rating. As illustrated by the experiment results,the proposed approach is conductive to the prediction and ergonomic evaluation of the layout design schemes of the action station during early design stages,and provides a new theoretical method for the ergonomic evaluation,selection and optimization design of layout design schemes.

  2. Evaluation of operating experience for service life of components

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schulz, H.; Sunder, R.

    1987-01-01

    The evaluation of the operating experience of German light-water reactor components based on licensee event reports indicates that a large part of the defects and failures are caused by fatigue and/or corrosion type mechanisms. Actions have been taken to eliminate the causes by redesigning systems, replacement of components and change of operating procedures. The interaction of fatigue and corrosion mechanisms are not understood in all details today, further research is still necessary. To establish a more realistic data base of the local loading and water chemistry condition for all loading conditions the application of advanced monitoring systems is proposed. The benefits of these systems are that the operating procedures can be further optimized, the actual used life time fraction can be calculated regularly and the data base can be used for life time extension. (orig.) [de

  3. Systematic evaluation of nuclear operator team skills training

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Harrington, D.K.; Kello, J.E.

    1991-01-01

    In recent years, the nuclear industry has increasingly recognized with the technical training given its control room operators. As yet, however, little has been done to determine the actual effectiveness of such nontechnical training. Thus, the questions of how team training should be carried out for maximum impact on the safety and efficiency of control room operation and just what the benefits of such training might be remain open. We are in the early stages of establishing a systematic evaluation process that will help nuclear utilities assess the effectiveness of their existing team skills training programs for control room operators. Research focuses on defining the specific behavioral and attitudinal objectives of team skills training. Simply put, what does good practice look like and sound like in the control room environment? What specific behaviors and attitudes should the training be directed toward? Obviously, the answers to the questions have clear implications for the design of nuclear team skills training programs

  4. Use of an operating microscope during spine surgery is associated with minor increases in operating room times and no increased risk of infection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Basques, Bryce A; Golinvaux, Nicholas S; Bohl, Daniel D; Yacob, Alem; Toy, Jason O; Varthi, Arya G; Grauer, Jonathan N

    2014-10-15

    Retrospective database review. To evaluate whether microscope use during spine procedures is associated with increased operating room times or increased risk of infection. Operating microscopes are commonly used in spine procedures. It is debated whether the use of an operating microscope increases operating room time or confers increased risk of infection. The American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program database, which includes data from more than 370 participating hospitals, was used to identify patients undergoing elective spinal procedures with and without the use of an operating microscope for the years 2011 and 2012. Bivariate and multivariate linear regressions were used to test the association between microscope use and operating room times. Bivariate and multivariate logistic regressions were similarly conducted to test the association between microscope use and infection occurrence within 30 days of surgery. A total of 23,670 elective spine procedures were identified, of which 2226 (9.4%) used an operating microscope. The average patient age was 55.1±14.4 years. The average operative time (incision to closure) was 125.7±82.0 minutes.Microscope use was associated with minor increases in preoperative room time (+2.9 min, P=0.013), operative time (+13.2 min, Pmicroscope and nonmicroscope groups for occurrence of any infection, superficial surgical site infection, deep surgical site infection, organ space infection, or sepsis/septic shock, regardless of surgery type. We did not find operating room times or infection risk to be significant deterrents for use of an operating microscope during spine surgery. 3.

  5. Surgical team turnover and operative time: An evaluation of operating room efficiency during pulmonary resection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Azzi, Alain Joe; Shah, Karan; Seely, Andrew; Villeneuve, James Patrick; Sundaresan, Sudhir R; Shamji, Farid M; Maziak, Donna E; Gilbert, Sebastien

    2016-05-01

    Health care resources are costly and should be used judiciously and efficiently. Predicting the duration of surgical procedures is key to optimizing operating room resources. Our objective was to identify factors influencing operative time, particularly surgical team turnover. We performed a single-institution, retrospective review of lobectomy operations. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to evaluate the impact of different factors on surgical time (skin-to-skin) and total procedure time. Staff turnover within the nursing component of the surgical team was defined as the number of instances any nurse had to leave the operating room over the total number of nurses involved in the operation. A total of 235 lobectomies were performed by 5 surgeons, most commonly for lung cancer (95%). On multivariate analysis, percent forced expiratory volume in 1 second, surgical approach, and lesion size had a significant effect on surgical time. Nursing turnover was associated with a significant increase in surgical time (53.7 minutes; 95% confidence interval, 6.4-101; P = .026) and total procedure time (83.2 minutes; 95% confidence interval, 30.1-136.2; P = .002). Active management of surgical team turnover may be an opportunity to improve operating room efficiency when the surgical team is engaged in a major pulmonary resection. Copyright © 2016 The American Association for Thoracic Surgery. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  6. At-Risk Youth Appearance and Job Performance Evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Freeburg, Beth Winfrey; Workman, Jane E.

    2008-01-01

    The goal of this study was to identify the relationship of at-risk youth workplace appearance to other job performance criteria. Employers (n = 30; each employing from 1 to 17 youths) evaluated 178 at-risk high school youths who completed a paid summer employment experience. Appearance evaluations were significantly correlated with evaluations of…

  7. Evaluation Logic of Main Control Board Fire Risk

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kang, Dae Il; Kim, Kilyoo; Lim, Ho Gon [KAERI, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-05-15

    The main control board (MCB) is defined as the collection of control panels inside the main control room (MCR) of a nuclear power plant (NPP). As the MCB has the control and instrumentation circuits of redundant trains for almost all plant systems, small fires within the control panels may be detrimental to the safe shutdown capability. A big fire affecting many panels in the MCB can cause a forced MCR abandonment of the operators as well as function failures or spurious operations of the control and instrumentation-related components. If the MCR cannot be habitable, a safe shutdown from outside the MCR can be achieved and maintained at an alternate shutdown panel electrically and physically independent from the MCR. Because the MCB consist of many electrical panels, it may have internal barriers between them to prevent a fire from spreading from its origin to neighboring locations. However, most MCBs of domestic NPPs do not have internal barriers within them. If the MCB cabinets are not separated by a double wall with an air gap, the fire propagation of an MCB panel fire cannot be ruled out. Recently, Joglar et al. proposed a new evaluation logic for the MCB panel fires and mentioned that an MCB fire can be divided into propagation and non-propagating fires for abandonment and non-abandonment fire scenarios. However, they did not present the details on the fire modeling approaches and probability formulas for the fire scenarios. In this paper, a decision tree for evaluating the risk of an MCB fire is proposed to systematically determine the fire scenarios in terms of the fire modeling approaches. This paper proposed a decision tree for evaluating the risk of an MCB fire to systematically determine the fire scenarios in terms of fire modeling approaches.

  8. Office for Analysis and Evaluation of Operational Data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1990-07-01

    The annual report of the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission's Office for Analysis and Evaluation of Operational Data (AEOD) is devoted to the activities performed during 1989. The report covers nonreactors and presents a review of the events and concerns during 1989 associated with the use of licensed material in nonreactor applications, such as personnel overexposures and medical misadministrations. This volume contains a list of the AEOD reports issued for 1980--1989. 5 tabs

  9. Definition and Evaluation of Bus and Truck Automation Operations Concepts

    OpenAIRE

    Tsao, H.-S. Jacob; Botha, Jan L.

    2002-01-01

    Traffic congestion will continue to worsen and likely worsen at a faster rate than ever. People throughput and freight throughput have become critical issues for California and the rest of the nation. PATH has been funding a one-year research project entitled "Definition and Evaluation of Bus and Truck Automation Operations Concepts," proposed by the authors. This report summarizes the results of the research project achieved during the first six months. During those six months, we reviewed l...

  10. Risk Analysis Based on AHP and Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation for Maglev Train Bogie

    OpenAIRE

    Fan, Chengxin; Dou, Fengshan; Tong, Baiming; Long, Zhiqiang

    2016-01-01

    The maglev bogie is the key subsystem for maglev train security. To ensure life and property security, it is essential to evaluate its risk level before its operation. In this paper, a combinational method of analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation is proposed to assess hazards in a complex maglev bogie system associated with multiple subsystems’ failures. The very comprehensive identification of risk sources has been done by analyzing the structure of maglev bogie. Furt...

  11. Structured assessment format for evaluating operative reports in general surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vergis, Ashley; Gillman, Lawrence; Minor, Samuel; Taylor, Mark; Park, Jason

    2008-01-01

    Despite its multifaceted importance, no validated or reliable tools assess the quality of the dictated operative note. This study determined the construct validity, interrater reliability, and internal consistency of a Structured Assessment Format for Evaluating Operative Reports (SAFE-OR) in general surgery. SAFE-OR was developed by using consensus criteria set forth by the Canadian Association of General Surgeons. This instrument includes a structured assessment and a global quality rating scale. Residents divided into novice and experienced groups viewed and dictated a videotaped laparoscopic sigmoid colectomy. Blinded, independent faculty evaluators graded the transcribed reports using SAFE-OR. Twenty-one residents participated in the study. Mean structured assessment scores (out of 44) were significantly lower for novice versus experienced residents (23.3 +/- 5.2 vs 34.1 +/- 6.0, t = .001). Mean global quality scores (out of 45) were similarly lower for novice residents (25.6 +/- 4.7 vs 35.9 +/- 7.6, t = .006). Interclass correlation coefficients were .98 (95% confidence interval, .96-.99) for structured assessment and .93 (95% confidence interval, .83-.97) for global quality scales. Cronbach alpha coefficients for internal consistency were .85 for structured assessment and .96 for global quality assessment scales. SAFE-OR shows significant construct validity, excellent interrater reliability, and high internal consistency. This tool will allow educators to objectively evaluate the quality of trainee operative reports and provide a mechanism for implementing, monitoring, and refining curriculum for dictation skills.

  12. MODERN RISK MEASURES FOR INDIVIDUAL HIGHER EDUCATION INVESTMENT RISK EVALUATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vona Mate

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available One of the reasons why people get degree and participate in organized education is that they want to raise their human capital or signal their inner abilities to future employers by sorting themselves out. In both cases they can expect return to their investment, because they can expect higher life-time earnings than those who do not have degree. In this paper we will refer this activity as higher education investment or education investment. In this paper the investment of the state into educating their citizens will not be considered. The question of this paper will develop the findings of Vona (2014. I suggested to introduce modern risk measures because individual risk-taking became a serious question. It was considered that modern risk measures can help to solve some issues with the relation of investment and risk. However before applying some measures from a different field of science, namely investment finance and financial mathematics, to another, economics of education, there must be a very careful consideration, because there are debate over these measures applicability even on their field of science. Value at Risk is not coherent and Expected Shortfall is only one of a great deal of possible tail loss measures. For this reason it will be discussed in detail how should we should adopt the measures, what kind of data is necessary for calculating this risk measures and what kind of new insight they can bring. With the aid of a numerical example it will be shown that with expected shortfall measure we can reflect some large losses, and potential high value of diversification. We show the value at risk based measure is not coherent and this means it points out something different in this environment. It is can be an indicator of loss in opportunities for high end returns.

  13. Evaluating emergency risk communications: a dialogue with the experts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, Craig W; Vanderford, Marsha L; Crouse Quinn, Sandra

    2008-10-01

    Evaluating emergency risk communications is fraught with challenges since communication can be approached from both a systemic and programmatic level. Therefore, one must consider stakeholders' perspectives, effectiveness issues, standards of evidence and utility, and channels of influence (e.g., mass media and law enforcement). Evaluation issues related to timing, evaluation questions, methods, measures, and accountability are raised in this dialogue with emergency risk communication specialists. Besides the usual evaluation competencies, evaluators in this area need to understand and work collaboratively with stakeholders and be attuned to the dynamic contextual nature of emergency risk communications. Sample resources and measures are provided here to aid in this emerging and exciting field of evaluation.

  14. Operational Risk Measurement of Chinese Commercial Banks Based on Extreme Value Theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Jiashan; Li, Yong; Ji, Feng; Peng, Cheng

    The financial institutions and supervision institutions have all agreed on strengthening the measurement and management of operational risks. This paper attempts to build a model on the loss of operational risks basing on Peak Over Threshold model, emphasizing on weighted least square, which improved Hill’s estimation method, while discussing the situation of small sample, and fix the sample threshold more objectively basing on the media-published data of primary banks loss on operational risk from 1994 to 2007.

  15. Dysphagia after vertical sleeve gastrectomy: Evaluation of risk factors and assessment of endoscopic intervention

    OpenAIRE

    Nath, Anand; Yewale, Sayali; Tran, Tung; Brebbia, John S; Shope, Timothy R; Koch, Timothy R

    2016-01-01

    AIM To evaluate the risks of medical conditions, evaluate gastric sleeve narrowing, and assess hydrostatic balloon dilatation to treat dysphagia after vertical sleeve gastrectomy (VSG). METHODS VSG is being performed more frequently worldwide as a treatment for medically-complicated obesity, and dysphagia is common post-operatively. We hypothesize that post-operative dysphagia is related to underlying medical conditions or narrowing of the gastric sleeve. This is a retrospective, single insti...

  16. Reliability evaluation of oil pipelines operating in aggressive environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Magomedov, R. M.; Paizulaev, M. M.; Gebel, E. S.

    2017-08-01

    In connection with modern increased requirements for ecology and safety, the development of diagnostic services complex is obligatory and necessary enabling to ensure the reliable operation of the gas transportation infrastructure. Estimation of oil pipelines technical condition should be carried out not only to establish the current values of the equipment technological parameters in operation, but also to predict the dynamics of changes in the physical and mechanical characteristics of the material, the appearance of defects, etc. to ensure reliable and safe operation. In the paper, existing Russian and foreign methods for evaluation of the oil pipelines reliability are considered, taking into account one of the main factors leading to the appearance of crevice in the pipeline material, i.e. change the shape of its cross-section, - corrosion. Without compromising the generality of the reasoning, the assumption of uniform corrosion wear for the initial rectangular cross section has been made. As a result a formula for calculation the probability of failure-free operation was formulated. The proposed mathematical model makes it possible to predict emergency situations, as well as to determine optimal operating conditions for oil pipelines.

  17. Risk evaluation system for facility safeguards and security planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Udell, C.J.; Carlson, R.L.

    1987-01-01

    The Risk Evaluation System (RES) is an integrated approach to determining safeguards and security effectiveness and risk. RES combines the planning and technical analysis into a format that promotes an orderly development of protection strategies, planing assumptions, facility targets, vulnerability and risk determination, enhancement planning, and implementation. In addition, the RES computer database program enhances the capability of the analyst to perform a risk evaluation of the facility. The computer database is menu driven using data input screens and contains an algorithm for determining the probability of adversary defeat and risk. Also, base case and adjusted risk data records can be maintained and accessed easily

  18. Risk evaluation system for facility safeguards and security planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Udell, C.J.; Carlson, R.L.

    1987-01-01

    The Risk Evaluation System (RES) is an integrated approach to determining safeguards and security effectiveness and risk. RES combines the planning and technical analysis into a format that promotes an orderly development of protection strategies, planning assumptions, facility targets, vulnerability and risk determination, enhancement planning, and implementation. In addition, the RES computer database program enhances the capability of the analyst to perform a risk evaluation of the facility. The computer database is menu driven using data input screens and contains an algorithm for determining the probability of adversary defeat and risk. Also, base case and adjusted risk data records can be maintained and accessed easily

  19. The gamma knife: Dose and risk evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jones, E.D.; Alesso, H.P.; Banks, W.W.; Rathbun, P.A.

    1992-01-01

    This paper outlines a risk analysis approach designed to identify and assess most likely failure modes and high-risk, human initiated actions for nuclear medical devices. This approach is being developed under the auspices of the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Office of Nuclear Material Safety and Safeguards. The methodology is initiated intended to assess risk associated with the use of the Leksell Gamma Unit (LGU) or gamma knife, a gamma stereotactic radiosurgical device

  20. Comparative evaluation of risks at regional level

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aigueperse, J.; Anguenot, F.; Hardy, S.

    1990-01-01

    In this paper we give the risks for the population of the South-East part of France. The risks are given, in case of chronic intake for energy production (coal and uranium mines, oil refineries, electricity production), for natural and medical irradiation (X-ray radiography-radiotherapy) and for domestic risks (use of chemical products). In case of accidents, the risks are studied in the optic of territorial gestion: transport of dangerous products (natural gas-fuel-chemical products) fires or explosions in chemical manufactories, water pollution by manufactories and agricultural uses [fr

  1. AN EVALUATION OF RISK MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES FOR DAIRY FARMS

    OpenAIRE

    Bosch, Darrell J.; Johnson, Christian J.

    1992-01-01

    Variability in feed prices and crop yields are important sources of risk to dairy farmers. A simulation model of a representative dairy farm was used to evaluate crop insurance and hedging as risk management strategies. These strategies lowered expected net returns but also reduced risk. The preferred set of strategies at lower levels of risk aversion included hedging and crop insurance, although a base scenario in which no risk management strategies were employed was also efficient. The pref...

  2. RISK MANAGEMENT IN THE OPERATING ACTIVITIES OF AN ENTERPRISE AND IN PUBLIC-PRIVATE PARTNERSHIP PROJECTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lech Jędrzejewski

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available The paper is devoted to issues related to building a risk management system for businesses in the areas of operations and implementation of infrastructure projects. The article defines the concept of risk in business processes and identifies risks occurring in infrastructure projects. In the text, the principles have been presented for protection against the effects of political, contracting, environmental, ecological, product, process, operational and personnel risk.

  3. A proposed operational risk management framework for small and medium enterprises

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Micheline J. Naude

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Background: The gap between small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs and large businesses that perform risk assessment is significant. SMEs continuously face many operational risks and uncertainties in their daily operations, and these risks threaten to reduce productivity, increase costs and reduce profits. Aim: The purpose of this article was to develop an operational risk management framework that SMEs can use to identify and analyse risks in their operations and take corrective actions to mitigate these risks. Setting: Small and medium-sized enterprises in South Africa do not view risk management as a key component of organisational success, despite evidence that businesses that adopt risk management strategies are more likely to survive and grow. Methods: The article is exploratory in nature, and a conceptual analysis approach was used to formulate the framework. This study reviewed relevant literature sources on risk published between 2002 and 2017. Results: The four process steps of risk management were used as a reference point and form the foundation for the operational risk management framework. The categories of operational; marketing; technical and financial risks were identified from a review of available literature on risk management. Conclusion: There is a dearth of research that deals with operational risk management frameworks for SMEs. The expected contribution of this article, therefore, is twofold: firstly, it is envisaged that managers or owners of SMEs could use the proposed framework as a tool to appraise and minimise their operational risks; secondly, it will add to the current body of knowledge on risk appraisal for SMEs.

  4. The risk evaluation of a model of a high-level waste solidification plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bruecher, H.

    1977-02-01

    In this report the risk associated with the operation of a plant for vitrification of high-level liquid waste is evaluated. Considerung risk assessment it turns out that the important accidents occur during off-gas cleaning. On the other hand effects of explosions in the process equipment don't contribute very much to the overall risk. These data are compared with the risk resulting from routine discharge of the plant. It is of the same magnitude as or greater than the most important accident risks. (orig.) [de

  5. Operational Implementation of a Pc Uncertainty Construct for Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Newman, Lauri K.; Hejduk, Matthew D.; Johnson, Lauren C.

    2016-01-01

    Earlier this year the NASA Conjunction Assessment and Risk Analysis (CARA) project presented the theoretical and algorithmic aspects of a method to include the uncertainties in the calculation inputs when computing the probability of collision (Pc) between two space objects, principally uncertainties in the covariances and the hard-body radius. The output of this calculation approach is to produce rather than a single Pc value an entire probability density function that will represent the range of possible Pc values given the uncertainties in the inputs and bring CA risk analysis methodologies more in line with modern risk management theory. The present study provides results from the exercise of this method against an extended dataset of satellite conjunctions in order to determine the effect of its use on the evaluation of conjunction assessment (CA) event risk posture. The effects are found to be considerable: a good number of events are downgraded from or upgraded to a serious risk designation on the basis of consideration of the Pc uncertainty. The findings counsel the integration of the developed methods into NASA CA operations.

  6. The term 'risk' and its evaluation bases

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brueckner, R.

    1976-01-01

    The term risk, the risk itself and its application for radiation exposure in practised medicine is presented from the following points of view: Life expectation, susceptibility to sickness and permanent inability to work, impaired professional and earning capacity, work accident and sickness. (HP) [de

  7. Post-operative Transient Hypoparathyroidism: Incidence and Risk ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Background: There is limited data on the incidence and risk factors for developing postoperative hypoparathyroidism (POHP) in the South African setting. Objectives: This study aims to calculate the incidence of postoperative hypoparathyroidism in a South African tertiary setting, and to compare local risk factors for POHP to ...

  8. Cladding failure probability modeling for risk evaluations of fast reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mueller, C.J.; Kramer, J.M.

    1987-01-01

    This paper develops the methodology to incorporate cladding failure data and associated modeling into risk evaluations of liquid metal-cooled fast reactors (LMRs). Current US innovative designs for metal-fueled pool-type LMRs take advantage of inherent reactivity feedback mechanisms to limit reactor temperature increases in response to classic anticipated-transient-without-scram (ATWS) initiators. Final shutdown without reliance on engineered safety features can then be accomplished if sufficient time is available for operator intervention to terminate fission power production and/or provide auxiliary cooling prior to significant core disruption. Coherent cladding failure under the sustained elevated temperatures of ATWS events serves as one indicator of core disruption. In this paper we combine uncertainties in cladding failure data with uncertainties in calculations of ATWS cladding temperature conditions to calculate probabilities of cladding failure as a function of the time for accident recovery

  9. Cladding failure probability modeling for risk evaluations of fast reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mueller, C.J.; Kramer, J.M.

    1987-01-01

    This paper develops the methodology to incorporate cladding failure data and associated modeling into risk evaluations of liquid metal-cooled fast reactors (LMRs). Current U.S. innovative designs for metal-fueled pool-type LMRs take advantage of inherent reactivity feedback mechanisms to limit reactor temperature increases in response to classic anticipated-transient-without-scram (ATWS) initiators. Final shutdown without reliance on engineered safety features can then be accomplished if sufficient time is available for operator intervention to terminate fission power production and/or provide auxiliary cooling prior to significant core disruption. Coherent cladding failure under the sustained elevated temperatures of ATWS events serves as one indicator of core disruption. In this paper we combine uncertainties in cladding failure data with uncertainties in calculations of ATWS cladding temperature conditions to calculate probabilities of cladding failure as a function of the time for accident recovery. (orig.)

  10. Pre-operative evaluation of patients with chronic liver disease

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tapias M Monica; Idrovo Cubides, Victor

    2006-01-01

    Patients with advanced liver disease have an increased risk of complications, compared to healthy patients when they undergo a surgical procedure. This risk is related to the type of surgery, to the type of anesthetic used, and to the severity of the underlying liver disease. Several risk factors for liver disease should be identified prior to a procedure. Those with advanced disease should undergo specific pre-surgical diagnostic tests. The Child Pugh score, and the MELD score, are very useful to establish the surgical risk in individuals with liver disease. The Child-Pugh score is a very useful tool that correlates closely to morbidity and mortality in patients with liver disease. Mortality rates in these patients undergoing major surgery is 10, 30 and 82% for Child-Pugh scores A, B and C respectively. In order to optimize the patient's condition before surgery, a complete evaluation and management of conditions such as jaundice, coagulopathy, ascites, electrolyte abnormalities, renal insufficiency and encephalopathy must be performed. This approach helps to reduce the complication rate in these individuals

  11. Risk-based configuration control: Application of PSA in improving technical specifications and operational safety

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Samanta, P.K.; Kim, I.S.; Vesely, W.E.

    1992-01-01

    Risk-based configuration control is the management of component configurations using a risk perspective to control risk and assure safety. A configuration, as used here, is a set of component operability statuses that define the state of a nuclear power plant. If the component configurations that have high risk implications do not occur, then the risk from the operation of nuclear power plants would be minimal. The control of component configurations, i.e., the management of component statuses, to minimize the risk from components being unavailable, becomes difficult, because the status of a standby safety system component is often not apparent unless it is tested. Controlling plant configuration from a risk-perspective can provide more direct risk control and also more operational flexibility by allowing looser controls in areas unimportant to risk. Risk-based configuration control approaches can be used to replace parts of nuclear power plant Technical Specifications. With the advances in probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) technology, such approaches to improve Technical Specifications and operational safety are feasible. In this paper, we present an analysis of configuration risks, and a framework for risk-based configuration control to achieve the desired control of risk-significant configurations during plant operation

  12. Operational Art and Risk: Why Doctrine Does Not Help

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-05-23

    across all levels of warfare towards a single immutable strategic end state. 19 The critical factor for the operational artists is the arrangement of...of tactical actions to strategic objectives happens from tactical to strategic levels of war. 20 Operational art is the mental gymnastics that creates

  13. Risk Analysis Based on AHP and Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation for Maglev Train Bogie

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chengxin Fan

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The maglev bogie is the key subsystem for maglev train security. To ensure life and property security, it is essential to evaluate its risk level before its operation. In this paper, a combinational method of analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation is proposed to assess hazards in a complex maglev bogie system associated with multiple subsystems’ failures. The very comprehensive identification of risk sources has been done by analyzing the structure of maglev bogie. Furthermore, based on the fuzzy theory, linguistic evaluation set is classified according to risk tolerance. The score of each risk factor is obtained by weighted sum of the result of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation. Our results show that the degree of maglev bogie’s risk is within the range of acceptability. The merits of this work facilitate finding the weak links and determining the maintenance of maglev bogie system.

  14. Evaluation of a completely robotized neurosurgical operating microscope.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kantelhardt, Sven R; Finke, Markus; Schweikard, Achim; Giese, Alf

    2013-01-01

    Operating microscopes are essential for most neurosurgical procedures. Modern robot-assisted controls offer new possibilities, combining the advantages of conventional and automated systems. We evaluated the prototype of a completely robotized operating microscope with an integrated optical coherence tomography module. A standard operating microscope was fitted with motors and control instruments, with the manual control mode and balance preserved. In the robot mode, the microscope was steered by a remote control that could be fixed to a surgical instrument. External encoders and accelerometers tracked microscope movements. The microscope was additionally fitted with an optical coherence tomography-scanning module. The robotized microscope was tested on model systems. It could be freely positioned, without forcing the surgeon to take the hands from the instruments or avert the eyes from the oculars. Positioning error was about 1 mm, and vibration faded in 1 second. Tracking of microscope movements, combined with an autofocus function, allowed determination of the focus position within the 3-dimensional space. This constituted a second loop of navigation independent from conventional infrared reflector-based techniques. In the robot mode, automated optical coherence tomography scanning of large surface areas was feasible. The prototype of a robotized optical coherence tomography-integrated operating microscope combines the advantages of a conventional manually controlled operating microscope with a remote-controlled positioning aid and a self-navigating microscope system that performs automated positioning tasks such as surface scans. This demonstrates that, in the future, operating microscopes may be used to acquire intraoperative spatial data, volume changes, and structural data of brain or brain tumor tissue.

  15. Ergonomic analysis for the assessment of the risk of work-related musculoskeletal disorder in forestry operations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raimondo Gallo

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available The risk to run into a Work-Related Musculoskeletal Disorder (WMSD is very high when operating in the primary sector. As a matter of fact the professional illnesses related to the WMSD in Italy are increasing. Nowadays the assessment of the WMSD in the primary sector is performed mainly in the agricultural sector, considering different agronomical activities; for the forestry sector, only few documents reported an ergonomic evaluation. The lack of available information on this topic in the forestry sector, as well as the similarity with the agricultural sector, drives the interest to the assessment of the conditions that expose workers to WMSD risks in forestry operations. Four different assessment approaches were applied in this study. These tools permitted to classify which are the exposures and if there is the presence of WMSD risk for forest operators. The approaches are respectively the OCRA checklist and the RNLE equation, both recognized as ISO standards, as well as OWAS and REBA, recommended by ISO standards. The first approach focusses on the risk due to repetitive and stressed movements, while the second evaluates the risk of injures due to the manual movement of loads. Meanwhile OWAS and REBA detect the possibility of injures due to wrong postures during the work. These approaches were applied for the cutting operations with chainsaw. Since the evaluation requires high levels of attention and also because it was necessary to gain a good level of safety for the surveyor, a digital camera was used to film the operative activities. Then, the movies were analysed in office. Aim of the research is to analyse if it is possible to apply the approaches suggested by ISO standards in order to assess the most dangerous activities that, when not properly carried out, could be the cause of WMSD in forestry operations. The study showed that during the use of the chainsaw the index of risk of professional injures was overpassed several times

  16. Eielson Air Force Base Operable Unit 2 baseline risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lewis, R.E.; Jarvis, T.T.; Jarvis, M.R.; Whelan, G.

    1994-10-01

    Operable Unit 2 at Eielson Air Force Base (AFB) near Fairbanks, is one of several operable units characterized by petroleum, oil, and lubricant contamination, and by the presence of organic products floating at the water table, as a result of Air Force operations since the 1940s. The base is approximately 19,270 acres in size, and comprises the areas for military operations and a residential neighborhood for military dependents. Within Operable Unit 2, there are seven source areas. These source areas were grouped together primarily because of the contaminants released and hence are not necessarily in geographical proximity. Source area ST10 includes a surface water body (Hardfill Lake) next to a fuel spill area. The primary constituents of concern for human health include benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, and xylenes (BTEX). Monitored data showed these volatile constituents to be present in groundwater wells. The data also showed an elevated level of trace metals in groundwater.

  17. Experimental evaluation of an expert system for nuclear reactor operators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nelson, W.R.

    1984-10-01

    The United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC) is supporting a program for the experimental evaluation of an expert system for nuclear reactor operators. A prototype expert system, called the Response Tree System, has been developed and implemented at INEL. The Response Tree System is designed to assess the status of a reactor system following an accident and recommend corrective actions to reactor operators. The system is implemented using color graphic displays and is driven by a computer simulation of the reactor system. Control of the system is accomplished using a transparent touch panel. Controlled experiments are being conducted to measure performance differences between operators using the Response Tree System and those not using it to respond to simulated accident situations. This paper summarizes the methodology and results of the evaluation of the Response Tree System, including the quantitative results obtained in the experiments thus far. Design features of the Response Tree System are discussed, and general conclusions regarding the applicability of expert systems in reactor control rooms are presented

  18. Office for Analysis and Evaluation of Operational Data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1993-10-01

    The annual report of the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission's Office for Analysis and Evaluation of Operational Data (AEOD) is devoted to the activities performed during 1992. The report is published in two separate parts. NUREG-1272, Vol. 7, No. 1, covers power reactors and presents an overview of the operating experience of the nuclear power industry from the NRC perspective, including comments about the trends of some key performance measures. The report also includes the principal findings and issues identified in AEOD studies over the past year and summarizes information from such sources as licensee event reports, diagnostic evaluations, and reports to the NRC's Operations Center. NUREG-1272, Vol. 7, No. 2, covers nonreactors and presents a review of the events and concerns during 1992 associated with the use of licensed material in nonreactor applications, such as personnel overexposures and medical misadministrations. Both reports also contain a discussion of the Incident Investigation Team program and summarize both the Incident Investigation Team and Augmented Inspection Team reports. Each volume contains a list of the AEOD reports issued for 1981--1992

  19. RISK VIP: Evaluation of Flood Risk on the French Railway Network Using an Innovative GIS Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cheetham Mark

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Flooding can have significant direct and indirect negative effects on a railway network affecting both infrastructure and rail operations. Such impacts include the delaying or cancelling of train services, damage to railway structures or the implementation of costly maintenance and monitoring programs to ensure the safety and performance of the railway system. Identifying sections of railway line at risk from flooding allows appropriate actions to be targeted at specific areas and contributes to an effective asset management plan. Flooding of railway infrastructure can have numerous sources including surface water run-off, insufficient capacity of hydraulic structures or the inundation of embankments located in floodplains. Consequences of flooding include the destabilisation of structures (surface erosion of embankments or the undermining of bridge foundations, differential settlement of structures and damage to the track structure. This paper details an innovative approach developed at the SNCF using a Geographic Information System (GIS model to identify zones of the railway network at risk of different types of flooding. The GIS model RiskVIP has been constructed through the assessment of three distinct components of risk: “Vulnerability” (assessment of the susceptibility of the railway infrastructure to flood conditions, Intensity’ (capacity of a catchment to generate a flood flow, Probability’ (probability of a rainfall event.Through the application of decision trees, the component ‘Intensity’ has been characterised in the model by the physical properties of the catchment intercepted by the railway line (surface area of the catchment, slope and land cover characteristics and “Vulnerability” by the infrastructure itself (type, geometry and the presence of hydraulic structures. In order to evaluate its efficiency at identifying sites at risk of flooding, the model has been tested in the region of Languedoc-Roussillon in France

  20. LiveWall Operational Evaluation: Seattle Law Enforcement Pilot

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barr, Jonathan L.; Burtner, Edwin R.; Stein, Steven L.

    2013-10-01

    The LiveWall concept envisioned as an outgrowth of the Precision Information Environment (PIE) project allows communications between separate groups using interactive video, audio, and a shared desktop environment; this allows everyone to participate and collaborate in real time, regardless of location. The LiveWall concept provides a virtual window to other locations, where all parties can interact and collaboratively work with each other. This functionality is intended to improve multi-site coordination amongst emergency operations centers (EOC), field operations sites and across organizations and jurisdictions to accommodate communications during routine and emergency events. For the initial LiveWall operational evaluation PNNL partnered with the Seattle Police Department (SPD). This partnership allowed for the creation of an excellent LiveWall test bed specific to law enforcement. This partnership made it possible to test the LiveWall concept with scenarios involving the many facets of the law enforcement work done by SPD. PNNL and SPD agreed that integrating the systems into operations for a real event would be the best test of the technology and give SPD staff greater visibility into the functionality and benefits offered by the LiveWall concept.

  1. Conventional myelography - evaluation of risk and benefit

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hentschel, F.

    1989-01-01

    While the benefit and methodic risk of conventional myelography (KMG) are known, a radiation risk of 0.04 to 0.9 annual radiation-induced cancers can be estimated for all inhabitants of the GDR, dependent on the investigated region and the technique used. An optimized technique can reduce the radiation burden to 50 or 25%. With comparable values of benefit and radiation risk spinal CT and KMG are not contradictory but complementary investigations. Alternative methods (MRT, US) must not be discussed from the standpoint of radiation burden, but according to their availability and their methodic limitations. (author)

  2. WORK PRECARIOUSNESS: ERGONOMIC RISKS TO OPERATORS OF MACHINES ADAPTED FOR FOREST HARVESTING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stanley Schettino

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT This study aimed to assess different types of machines adapted for mechanized forest harvesting activities in order to quantify the degree of compliance with ergonomic principles applicable to forest machines, as well as the ergonomic risks to which workers are exposed. The following machines were evaluated: a feller buncher adapted into a wheel loader; a mini skidder coupled to an agricultural tractor; and a forest loader adapted to an agricultural tractor; operating in the states of Paraná and Minas Gerais. Biomechanical working conditions were assessed by applying a checklist for simplified assessment of the workplace biomechanical conditions. The forced postures assessment was performed using the REBA - "Rapid Entire Body Assessment" method. In turn, ergonomic classification was through guidelines contained in the ergonomic classification manual "Ergonomic Guidelines for Forest Machines". Moreover, the environmental factors noise, temperature and vibration to which the operators of these machines were exposed were assessed. The results showed all assessed machines had ergonomic standards below those indicated in all assessed aspects, mainly related to access and dimensions of the workplace, need to adopt forced postures during working hours, and exposure to environmental factors assessed above tolerance limits. It is concluded that machines adapted for use in forest harvesting processes have shown significant gaps in relation to ergonomic aspects, presenting high and imminent risk of development of occupational diseases in their operators.

  3. Evaluation of environmental impact of radioactive waste from reactor operation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lombard, J.; Pages, P.

    1989-10-01

    This paper evaluates the environmental impact of radioactive wastes from reactors operation. We estimate a case of a plant of 20 GWe power operating for 30 years which is equivalent to 600 tons of uranium per year. According to the properties, the waste is stored on surface (Aube site). Starting from the year of storage, we have defined the maximum dose equivalent for an individual from the reference group. The calculation depends on water of outlet water in which some initially stored radionuclides have migrated. Under the most pessimistic estimation, maximum annual dose was of the order of magnitude 0.5 μ Sv (0.05 mrem) for the storage 400 years after opening the site, and after 4000 years. Compared to the values obtained for the radioactive waste storage, the value of this impact is five times higher than the respective surface storage, but two time less than values for underground storage [fr

  4. Use of an operational model evaluation system for model intercomparison

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Foster, K. T., LLNL

    1998-03-01

    The Atmospheric Release Advisory Capability (ARAC) is a centralized emergency response system used to assess the impact from atmospheric releases of hazardous materials. As part of an on- going development program, new three-dimensional diagnostic windfield and Lagrangian particle dispersion models will soon replace ARAC`s current operational windfield and dispersion codes. A prototype model performance evaluation system has been implemented to facilitate the study of the capabilities and performance of early development versions of these new models relative to ARAC`s current operational codes. This system provides tools for both objective statistical analysis using common performance measures and for more subjective visualization of the temporal and spatial relationships of model results relative to field measurements. Supporting this system is a database of processed field experiment data (source terms and meteorological and tracer measurements) from over 100 individual tracer releases.

  5. Managing Competing Influences: Risk Acceptance in Operation Rolling Thunder

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-03-12

    perspective beyond the chance of loss because the nation may require units to fight, even when the odds may not be in their favor. James Creelman and...J. Davidson Frame, Managing Risk in Organizations: A Guide for Managers (San Francisco: Jossey-Bass, 2003), 7. 22 James Creelman and Andrew Smart...translated by Peter Paret and Michael Howard. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1976. Creelman , James, and Andrew Smart. Risk-Based Performance

  6. Risks and benefits of antireflux operations in neurologically impaired children

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Borgstein, E. S.; Heij, H. A.; Beugelaar, J. D.; Ekkelkamp, S.; Vos, A.

    1994-01-01

    Gastro-oesophageal reflux (GER) in neurologically impaired children often causes feeding problems and complications of oesophagitis and is frequently resistant to medical treatment. Fifty neurologically impaired children underwent anterior gastropexy as anti-reflux operation, combined with

  7. The formulation of a peer evaluation measure for special forces: operational forces operator traits and attitude questionnaire (SFO-TAQ)

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Van Heerden, A

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available International Military Testing Association (IMTA) Conference, New Delhi, India, 7-11 November 2016 The formulation of a peer evaluation measure for special forces: operational forces operator traits and attitude questionnaire (SFO-TAQ) Van Heerden A...

  8. Middleware Evaluation and Benchmarking for Use in Mission Operations Centers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Antonucci, Rob; Waktola, Waka

    2005-01-01

    Middleware technologies have been promoted as timesaving, cost-cutting alternatives to the point-to-point communication used in traditional mission operations systems. However, missions have been slow to adopt the new technology. The lack of existing middleware-based missions has given rise to uncertainty about middleware's ability to perform in an operational setting. Most mission architects are also unfamiliar with the technology and do not know the benefits and detriments to architectural choices - or even what choices are available. We will present the findings of a study that evaluated several middleware options specifically for use in a mission operations system. We will address some common misconceptions regarding the applicability of middleware-based architectures, and we will identify the design decisions and tradeoffs that must be made when choosing a middleware solution. The Middleware Comparison and Benchmark Study was conducted at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center to comprehensively evaluate candidate middleware products, compare and contrast the performance of middleware solutions with the traditional point- to-point socket approach, and assess data delivery and reliability strategies. The study focused on requirements of the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission, validating the potential use of middleware in the GPM mission ground system. The study was jointly funded by GPM and the Goddard Mission Services Evolution Center (GMSEC), a virtual organization for providing mission enabling solutions and promoting the use of appropriate new technologies for mission support. The study was broken into two phases. To perform the generic middleware benchmarking and performance analysis, a network was created with data producers and consumers passing data between themselves. The benchmark monitored the delay, throughput, and reliability of the data as the characteristics were changed. Measurements were taken under a variety of topologies, data demands

  9. Office for Analysis and Evaluation of Operational Data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1991-07-01

    The annual report of the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission's Office for Analysis and Evaluation of Operational Data (AEOD) is devoted to the activities performed during 1990. This document, NUREG-1272, Vol. 5, No. 2, covers nonreactors and presents a review of the events and concerns during 1990 associated with the use of licensed material in nonreactor applications, such as personnel overexposures and medical misadministrations. The reports contain a discussion of the Incident Investigation Team program and summarize both the Incident Investigation Team and Augmented Inspection Team reports for that group of licensees. Each volume contains a list of the AEOD reports issued for 1981 through 1990

  10. Leukemia risk as a consequence of Mayak PA operation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kuznetsova, I.S.; Koshurnikova, N. A.

    2004-01-01

    The purpose of this study is the epidemiological risk assessment of leukemia incidence and mortality in population of Ozyorsk, the closest town to Mayak Production Association as well as in Mayak workers during 1948-2000. Standardized rates of leukemia incidence and mortality in the whole population of Ozyorsk were proved to be significantly higher in comparison with national rates. Relative risk values decrease 10-30% in occupationally non-exposed population ( the rest of the population) compared with estimations on the whole population, however, remaining to be more than one. Standardized incidence rate (SIR) in males was: 1, 33 (95% CI: 1,00-1,75), in females: 1,17 (95% CI: 0,90-1,49), Standardized mortality rate (SMR) in males was 1,34 (95%CI:1,01-1,74), in females 1,24 (95% CI:0,97-1,56). Given more accurate diagnostics in the city compared with national one, there are no grounds to connect the increase in leukemia incidence and mortality in the rest of the population with radiation factor also because now there is no information on dose effect due to living in the vicinity of Mayak Production Association. Standardized leukemia mortality ratio in Mayak workers was 1,91 (95% CI: 1,48-2,43) in males and 2,07 (95% CI:1,31-3,10) in females. Regardless of the better quality of fit in linear-quadratic model, the preference in the analysis is given to linear dependence which allows to avoid underestimation of risk at doses of most interest for radiation protection. The doses were lagged for 2 years. Thus, using linear model with 2-year lag excess relative risk per 1 Gy of external g-exposure was 1.8 (95% CI:0.8-3,6). The study of risk dependence to time since exposure demonstrated that the highest risk of leukemia mortality falls on the period of 2-5 years after exposure (excess relative risk of leukemia mortality in this, period was 11,1 compared to the period of 0-2 years). Excess relative risk for the period of 5-10 years is 7,6, i. e. 1,5 times lower than in the

  11. 76 FR 29992 - Loan Policies and Operations; Lending and Leasing Limits and Risk Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-05-24

    ... FARM CREDIT ADMINISTRATION 12 CFR Part 614 RIN 3052-AC60 Loan Policies and Operations; Lending and Leasing Limits and Risk Management AGENCY: Farm Credit Administration. ACTION: Final rule. SUMMARY: The... (collectively loan) concentration risks. We expect this final rule will increase the safe and sound operation of...

  12. Credit Risk Evaluation of Swedish SMEs : A Banking Sector Perspective

    OpenAIRE

    Hörstedt, Maria; Linjamaa, Johanna

    2015-01-01

    As a result from the latest financial crisis, the banking industry has undergone major modifications during the last years in order to limit banks’ risks. A vast majority of existing literature tends to focus upon credit risk evaluation methods and techniques mainly concerning quantitative measures and large companies. Thus, the lack of research regarding credit risk evaluation of SMEs is profound, especially considering Sweden. With the dominant market share of SMEs compared to large corpora...

  13. Evaluating and predicting overall process risk using event logs

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pika, A.; Van Der Aalst, W.M.P.; Wynn, M.T.; Fidge, C.J.; Ter Hofstede, A.H.M.

    2016-01-01

    Companies standardise and automate their business processes in order to improve process efficiency and minimise operational risks. However, it is difficult to eliminate all process risks during the process design stage due to the fact that processes often run in complex and changeable environments

  14. The relationship between operating risk and accounting conservatism: Evidence from Iranian banking industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mehdi Taghavi

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this study is to analyze the relationship between operational risk and accounting conservatism. The criterion used for operational risk in this study is asset volatility and for accounting conservatism, we use Ball and Shivakumar (2005 model [Ball, R., & Shivakumar, L. (2005. Earnings quality in UK private firms: comparative loss recognition timeliness. Journal of Accounting and Economics, 39(1, 83-128.], which analyzes accounting from balance sheet sight. The statistical society used in this study is taken from 15 banks in Tehran Stock Exchange over the period 2006-2012. The research result demonstrates that there was a negative relationship between operational risk and accounting conservatism. In other words, there is a significant negative relationship between operational risk and accounting conservatism. Hence, the results suggest that with an increase (decrease in operational risk, accounting conservatism decreases (increases.

  15. HOW INTERNAL RISK - BASED AUDIT APPRAISES THE EVALUATION OF RISKS MANAGEMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Dorosh

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The article deals with the nature and function of the internal risk-based audit process approach to create patterns of risks and methods of evaluation. Deals with the relationship between the level of maturity of the risk of the company and the method of risk-based internal audit. it was emphasized that internal auditing provides an independent and objective opinion to an organization’s management as to whether its risks are being managed to acceptable levels.

  16. EVALUATION OF RISK FACTORS IN ACUTE STROKE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Putta

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Cerebrovascular disease is the third most common cause of death in the developed world after cancer and ischemic heart disease. In India, community surveys have shown a crude prevalence rate of 200 per 100000 population for hemiplegia. Aims and objectives: Identification of risk factors for c erebrovascular disease. Materials and Methods: Inclusion Criteria: Cases of acute stroke admitted in S.V.R.R.G.G.H, Tirupati were taken for the study. Exclusion Criteria: Head injury cases, neoplasm cases producing cerebrovascular disease were excluded. Re sults: Stroke was more common in male, 54% patients were male 46% were female. It was more common in 6 th and 7 th decade. More common risk factors were hypertension followed by smoking, diabetes mellitus. More common pathology was infarction. Conclusion: Com mon risk factors for acute stroke are hypertension, smoking, diabetes mellitus, alcoholism, obesity, cardiac disease. Stroke was confirmed by CT scan of brain.

  17. Qualitative risk assessment for 100-DR-1 source operable unit

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Naiknimbalkar, N.M.

    1994-01-01

    The Washington State Department of Ecology (Ecology), the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), and the US Department of Energy (DOE), signatories to the Hanford Federal Facility Agreement and Consent Order have developed the Hanford site Past-Practice Strategy to emphasize initiating and completing waste site cleanups with a bias for action. This strategy relies, in part, upon the use of a qualitative risk assessment (QRA) to assist in decision-making. The QRA is performed using the Hanford Site Baseline Risk Assessment Methodology (HSBRAM) as guidance (DOE-RL 1993a). The results will be used, along with other considerations, to make a recommendation for or against an interim remedial measure (IRM) at each high-priority waste site. The objective of conducting IRMs at Hanford, is to achieve cleanup and reduce risk in the shortest time possible and in a cost effective manner

  18. Risk-Based Operation and Maintenance of Offshore Wind Turbines

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Jannie Sønderkær

    to oil and gas structures. In addition, condition monitoring systems are often available, and the information should be taken into account when making decisions. In this thesis, methods for risk-based maintenance planning using Bayesian methods are investigated, with the aim of making optimal decisions......, but presently maintenance is not planned using advanced methods taking all available information into account in a consistent manner. Maintenance decisions can be made based on risk-based methods, where the total expected life cycle costs are minimized. Methods have been developed for assessing the corrective...... considering all available information. First, a theoretical damage model is formulated, the model is then updated using condition monitoring data, and the updated model is used as basis for risk-based decision making. Several approaches for solving the decision problems have been considered: various types...

  19. A longitudinal study of the incidence of pressure sores and the associated risks and strategies adopted in Italian operating theatres.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bulfone, Giampiera; Marzoli, Ilaria; Quattrin, Rosanna; Fabbro, Carmen; Palese, Alvisa

    2012-02-01

    To explore the incidence of intraoperative pressure sores, the associated risk factors and the preventive strategies adopted by nurses, we adopted a longitudinal study in a 900-bed teaching hospital with multiple operating theatres, located in the North of Italy. Patients who underwent major surgery were evaluated four times: at the moment of operating theatre admission, at operating theatre discharge, and on their third and sixth postoperative day. Of the patients included (n = 102) who had an average age of 62.3 years (range 20-87), 12.7% (13/102) developed a pressure ulcer in the operating theatre; 46.1% (6/13) of these ulcers were still present on the third postoperative day. Some health conditions (diabetes mellitus, cardiac diseases) and intra-operative factors (lying on the operating table for more than 6.15 hours, intraoperative hypothermia) are associated with the occurrence of pressure sores.

  20. Evaluation of the field relevance of several injury risk functions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prasad, Priya; Mertz, Harold J; Dalmotas, Danius J; Augenstein, Jeffrey S; Diggs, Kennerly

    2010-11-01

    An evaluation of the four injury risk curves proposed in the NHTSA NCAP for estimating the risk of AIS>= 3 injuries to the head, neck, chest and AIS>=2 injury to the Knee-Thigh-Hip (KTH) complex has been conducted. The predicted injury risk to the four body regions based on driver dummy responses in over 300 frontal NCAP tests were compared against those to drivers involved in real-world crashes of similar severity as represented in the NASS. The results of the study show that the predicted injury risks to the head and chest were slightly below those in NASS, and the predicted risk for the knee-thigh-hip complex was substantially below that observed in the NASS. The predicted risk for the neck by the Nij curve was greater than the observed risk in NASS by an order of magnitude due to the Nij risk curve predicting a non-zero risk when Nij = 0. An alternative and published Nte risk curve produced a risk estimate consistent with the NASS estimate of neck injury. Similarly, an alternative and published chest injury risk curve produced a risk estimate that was within the bounds of the NASS estimates. No published risk curve for femur compressive load could be found that would give risk estimates consistent with the range of the NASS estimates. Additional work on developing a femur compressive load risk curve is recommended.

  1. EVALUATION OF FORWARDER WOOD EXTRACTION COST OF OPERATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Larissa Nunes dos Santos

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this study was to determine the costs of the activity of timber extraction done by forwarders until approximately 30,000 work hours. We used 7 John Deere forwarders, model 1710D with 160 kW engine power. A database provided by a forestry company located in the state of Minas Gerais was used, containing all the information necessary for calculating the operating cost of the machines and for the subsequent sensitivity analysis. The operating cost was obtained by the sum of the fixed and variable costs. For the sensitivity analysis a variation ± 20% of the most representative elements of the total cost of the machine was performed. The result obtained for the average operating cost of the forwarder was US$ 147.80 h-1. Costs for repairs and maintenance, labor, fuel, and depreciation represented approximately 90% of the total cost of the machine. A 10% reduction in their values resulted in a savings of approximately 9% in all years evaluated.

  2. Evaluating the risks of clinical research: direct comparative analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rid, Annette; Abdoler, Emily; Roberson-Nay, Roxann; Pine, Daniel S; Wendler, David

    2014-09-01

    Many guidelines and regulations allow children and adolescents to be enrolled in research without the prospect of clinical benefit when it poses minimal risk. However, few systematic methods exist to determine when research risks are minimal. This situation has led to significant variation in minimal risk judgments, raising concern that some children are not being adequately protected. To address this concern, we describe a new method for implementing the widely endorsed "risks of daily life" standard for minimal risk. This standard defines research risks as minimal when they do not exceed the risks posed by daily life activities or routine examinations. This study employed a conceptual and normative analysis, and use of an illustrative example. Different risks are composed of the same basic elements: Type, likelihood, and magnitude of harm. Hence, one can compare the risks of research and the risks of daily life by comparing the respective basic elements with each other. We use this insight to develop a systematic method, direct comparative analysis, for implementing the "risks of daily life" standard for minimal risk. The method offers a way of evaluating research procedures that pose the same types of risk as daily life activities, such as the risk of experiencing anxiety, stress, or other psychological harm. We thus illustrate how direct comparative analysis can be applied in practice by using it to evaluate whether the anxiety induced by a respiratory CO2 challenge poses minimal or greater than minimal risks in children and adolescents. Direct comparative analysis is a systematic method for applying the "risks of daily life" standard for minimal risk to research procedures that pose the same types of risk as daily life activities. It thereby offers a method to protect children and adolescents in research, while ensuring that important studies are not blocked because of unwarranted concerns about research risks.

  3. Assessment and prevention of the professional risks in the operations of industrial radiography

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pizzorno, M.; Paul, D.; Coletti, F.; Sari Minodier, I.; Azzopardi, G.; Klemenic, O.; Botta, A.

    2006-01-01

    Industrial radiography is a nocturnal activity, hazardous and little known; it is among the professions the most exposed to ionizing radiation. This study analyse the doses, received the industrial radiographers, their workplace conditions and organization of their tasks. Dosimetry observations on site, together with calculations using the Mercurad code, allowed mean values for reference doses for all the work (including transport, gammatron manipulation, collimator manipulation, shooting) to be established. These value were integrated into a table entitled 'reference doses' in order to provisionally evaluate the doses received by the operators. Distances for security zone demarcation, so as to forbid access to non exposed personnel during shooting, were evaluated. Assessment of the professional risks for industrial radiography, taking into account all the risks (radiological and others), has been made and is under evaluation. This led to measures for prevention based on the material used (collimator, tripod, gamma-stops), on the organization and the conditions of work (for example, time limits permitting a prior visit to the site and preparation for radiography, suitable scaffolding, sufficient lighting, siting of shootings). These prevention measure will be integrated into the new charter of good practice in industrial radiography in the Provence Alpes Cote d'Azur region (south of France). (authors)

  4. Evaluating a Health Risk Reduction Program.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nagelberg, Daniel B.

    1981-01-01

    A health risk reduction program at Bowling Green State University (Ohio) tested the efficacy of peer education against the efficacy of returning (by mail) health questionnaire results. A peer health education program did not appear to be effective in changing student attitudes or lifestyles; however, the research methodology may not have been…

  5. Research items regarding seismic residual risk evaluation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2013-08-15

    After learning the Fukushima Dai-ichi NPP severe accidents in 2011, the government investigation committee proposed the effective use of probabilistic safety assessment (PSA), and now it is required to establish new safety rules reflecting the results of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) and proposed severe accident measures. Since the Seismic Design Guide has been revised on September 19, 2006, JNES has been discussing seismic PRA (Levels 1-3) methods to review licensees' residual risk assessment while preparing seismic PRA models. Meanwhile, new safety standards for light water reactors are to be issued and enforced on July 2013, which require the residual risk of tsunami, in addition to earthquakes, should be lowered as much as possible. The Fukushima accidents raised the problems related to risk assessment, e.g. approaches based on multi-hazard (earthquake and tsunami), multi-unit, multi-site, and equipment's common cause failure. This fiscal year, while performing seismic and/or tsunami PRA to work on these problems, JNES picked up the equipment whose failure greatly contribute to core damage, surveyed accident management measures on those equipment as well as effectiveness to reduce core damage probability. (author)

  6. Preoperative evaluation : risk management and implementation aspects

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Klei, W.A. van

    2002-01-01

    In preoperative risk management the anesthesiologist uses diagnostic information to estimate the probability of outcomes and to decide on the anesthetic strategy in a particular patient. The aim of this thesis was explore to what extent simple patient characteristics, particularly obtained from

  7. THE EFFECT OF CREDIT LINES AND RISKS ON OPERATIONS OF ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    credit risks that had weakened the microfinance sub sector and its ability to achieve ... Institutional structures for the provision of microcredit vary and may be ... Most of these poor people also earn low income and they are .... They lack access to ... are women, poorly trained and playing dual roles of provider and caregiver.

  8. Risk-Based Operation and Maintenance Using Bayesian Networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Jannie Jessen; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    2011-01-01

    This paper describes how risk-based decision making can be used for maintenance planning of components exposed to degradation such as fatigue in offshore wind turbines. In fatigue models, large epistemic uncertainties are usually present. These can be reduced if monitoring results are used to upd...

  9. A Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Model for Sustainability Risk Evaluation of PPP Projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Libiao Bai

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Evaluating the sustainability risk level of public–private partnership (PPP projects can reduce project risk incidents and achieve the sustainable development of the organization. However, the existing studies about PPP projects risk management mainly focus on exploring the impact of financial and revenue risks but ignore the sustainability risks, causing the concept of “sustainability” to be missing while evaluating the risk level of PPP projects. To evaluate the sustainability risk level and achieve the most important objective of providing a reference for the public and private sectors when making decisions on PPP project management, this paper constructs a factor system of sustainability risk of PPP projects based on an extensive literature review and develops a mathematical model based on the methods of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model (FCEM and failure mode, effects and criticality analysis (FMECA for evaluating the sustainability risk level of PPP projects. In addition, this paper conducts computational experiment based on a questionnaire survey to verify the effectiveness and feasibility of this proposed model. The results suggest that this model is reasonable for evaluating the sustainability risk level of PPP projects. To our knowledge, this paper is the first study to evaluate the sustainability risk of PPP projects, which would not only enrich the theories of project risk management, but also serve as a reference for the public and private sectors for the sustainable planning and development. Keywords: sustainability risk eva

  10. Designing and evaluating risk-based surveillance systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Willeberg, Preben; Nielsen, Liza Rosenbaum; Salman, Mo

    2012-01-01

    Risk-based surveillance systems reveal occurrence of disease or infection in a sample of population units, which are selected on the basis of risk factors for the condition under study. The purpose of such systems for supporting practical animal disease policy formulations and management decisions...... with prudent use of resources while maintaining acceptable system performance. High-risk category units are selected for testing by identification of the presence of specific high-risk factor(s), while disregarding other factors that might also influence the risk. On this basis we argue that the most...... applicable risk estimate for use in designing and evaluating a risk-based surveillance system would be a crude (unadjusted) relative risk, odds ratio or apparent prevalence. Risk estimates found in the published literature, however, are often the results of multivariable analyses implicitly adjusting...

  11. Multi-hazard risk assessment applied to hydraulic fracturing operations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia-Aristizabal, Alexander; Gasparini, Paolo; Russo, Raffaella; Capuano, Paolo

    2017-04-01

    Without exception, the exploitation of any energy resource produces impacts and intrinsically bears risks. Therefore, to make sound decisions about future energy resource exploitation, it is important to clearly understand the potential environmental impacts in the full life-cycle of an energy development project, distinguishing between the specific impacts intrinsically related to exploiting a given energy resource and those shared with the exploitation of other energy resources. Technological advances as directional drilling and hydraulic fracturing have led to a rapid expansion of unconventional resources (UR) exploration and exploitation; as a consequence, both public health and environmental concerns have risen. The main objective of a multi-hazard risk assessment applied to the development of UR is to assess the rate (or the likelihood) of occurrence of incidents and the relative potential impacts on surrounding environment, considering different hazards and their interactions. Such analyses have to be performed considering the different stages of development of a project; however, the discussion in this paper is mainly focused on the analysis applied to the hydraulic fracturing stage of a UR development project. The multi-hazard risk assessment applied to the development of UR poses a number of challenges, making of this one a particularly complex problem. First, a number of external hazards might be considered as potential triggering mechanisms. Such hazards can be either of natural origin or anthropogenic events caused by the same industrial activities. Second, failures might propagate through the industrial elements, leading to complex scenarios according to the layout of the industrial site. Third, there is a number of potential risk receptors, ranging from environmental elements (as the air, soil, surface water, or groundwater) to local communities and ecosystems. The multi-hazard risk approach for this problem is set by considering multiple hazards

  12. Experimental Evaluation of MHD Generators Operating at High Hall Coefficients

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barthelemy, R.R.; Stephan, B.G.; Cooper, R.F.

    1966-01-01

    The experimental evaluation of such open-cycle MHD generator operation, particularly at large values of the Hall parameter and Mach number, is scarce. A flexible combustion-driven MHD generator test facility is being constructed to investigate various generator-operating parameters, generator configurations and designs, and component materials. The plasma source is a combustion chamber in which toluene, or another suitable fuel, is burned with gaseous oxygen diluted with nitrogen. Potassium hydroxide seed is injected with the fuel to produce the necessary plasma conductivity. The gas stream is accelerated in a supersonic nozzle and then flows through the channel. The Hall channel is constructed of water-cooled Inconel rings suitably grooved for the zirconia electrode material. The rings are insulated from each other with Teflon spacers which are shielded from the high temperature gas by a layer of alumina refractory. The channel consists of 54 water-cooled rings assembled in three independent sections. Provisions for instrumentation consist of 15 points for static pressure measurement along the nozzle, channel and diffuser; 20 thermocouple measurements; 3 split rings for transverse current measurements; a voltmeter panel for all 54 electrodes; and all necessary fluid and electrical monitoring instruments. The channel is followed by a diffuser in which some of the dynamic pressure of the gas stream is recovered. The magnet is an iron core design with coils wound of hollow conductor to permit of water-cooling for high power operation. The magnet can operate at field strengths of up to 23 kG. Details of the test programme planned for the generator (commissioning at the end of 1966) are given. (author)

  13. Information Theory for Risk-based Water System Operation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Weijs, S.V.

    2011-01-01

    Operational management of water resources needs predictions of future behavior of water systems, to anticipate shortage or excess of water in a timely manner. Because the natural systems that are part of the hydrological cycle are complex, the predictions inevitably are subject to considerable

  14. Evaluating investments in renewable energy under policy risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gatzert, Nadine; Vogl, Nikolai

    2016-01-01

    The considerable amount of required infrastructure and renewable energy investments expected in the forthcoming years also implies an increasingly relevant contribution of private and institutional investors. In this context, especially regulatory and policy risks have been shown to play a major role for investors when evaluating investments in renewable energy and should thus also be taken into account in risk assessment and when deriving risk-return profiles. In this paper, we provide a stochastic model framework to quantify policy risks associated with renewable energy investments (e.g. a retrospective reduction of a feed-in tariff), thereby also taking into account energy price risk, resource risk, and inflation risk. The model is illustrated by means of simulations and scenario analyses, and it makes use of expert estimates and fuzzy set theory for quantifying policy risks. Our numerical results for a portfolio of onshore wind farms in Germany and France show that policy risk can strongly impact risk-return profiles, and that cross-country diversification effects can considerably decrease the overall risk for investors. - Highlights: •Quantification of policy risks associated with renewable energy investments. •Results emphasize that policy risk has a major impact on risk and return. •Study of the cross-country diversification potential. •Cross-country diversification can considerably decrease the risk for an investor.

  15. Risk identification and evaluation of customer collaboration in product development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xuefeng Zhang

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to identify risk factors that caused by customer collaboration in new product development systematically, and propose an approach to judge which risk factors are critical and catch substantial attention. Design/methodology/approach: This study identifies risk factors according to the results of case studies of enterprises in china. On this basis, an improved rough number approach is put forward to evaluate the importance of risk factors. Findings: Firstly, classify risk factors into three aspects. Then, present a risk factor set, which include thirty-seven risk factors. At last, determine which risk factors are critical by using an improved rough number approach. Originality/value: Considering there are few researches studying comprehensive risk factors of customer collaboration and assessing them, this paper explores a risk factor set of customer collaboration in product development stage, and proposes a novel approach, which can help to solve the problem of subjective, vague and lack of prior information of evaluation, to evaluate risk factors.

  16. Microclimate risk evaluation in agroindustrial work environments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Monarca, D.; Porceddu, P.; Cecchini, M.; Babucci, V.

    2005-01-01

    The concept of workers' safety includes not only the prevention from accidents, as a result of improvements in the devices utilised, but also their welfare and comfort microclimate, i.e., the complex of parameters that affect the thermal exchange between workers and the surrounding environment is one of the main factors that affect the working environment. The paper describes the main risk assessment methodologies and the main actions to be taken for improving the working environment and workers' personal comfort [it

  17. Prometheus unbound - challenges of risk evaluation, risk classification, and risk management

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Klinke, A.; Renn, O.

    1999-11-01

    For dealing with risks in a rational fashion, it is necessary to characterize risks and use the parameters of characterization as tools for designing appropriate actions. This reports suggests a set of criteria that one can use in evaluating risks. These criteria include: - Damage potential, i.e. the amount of damage that the hazard can cause; - probability of occurrence, i.e. the likelihood that a specific damage will occur; - incertitude, i.e., the remaining uncertainties that are not covered by the assessment of probabilities (subdivided in statistical uncertainties, genuine uncertainty, and ignorance); - ubiquity which defines the geographic dispersion of potential damages (intragenerational justice); - persistency which defines the temporal extension of potential damages (intergenerational justice); - irreversibility which describes the impossible restoration of the situation to the state before the damage occurred (possible restoration are e.g. reforestation and cleaning of water); - delay effects which characterize the time of latency between the initial event and the actual impact of damage. The time of latency could be of physical, chemical or biological nature; and - potential of mobilization which is understood as violation of individual, social or cultural interests and values generating social conflicts and psychological reactions by affected people. (orig.)

  18. Evaluating the benefits of risk prevention initiatives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Baldassarre, G.

    2012-04-01

    The likelihood and adverse impacts of water-related disasters, such as floods and landslides, are increasing in many countries because of changes in climate and land-use. This presentation illustrates some preliminary results of a comprehensive demonstration of the benefits of risk prevention measures, carried out within the European FP7 KULTURisk project. The study is performed by using a variety of case studies characterised by diverse socio-economic contexts, different types of water-related hazards (floods, debris flows and landslides, storm surges) and space-time scales. In particular, the benefits of state-of-the-art prevention initiatives, such as early warning systems, non-structural options (e.g. mapping and planning), risk transfer strategies (e.g. insurance policy), and structural measures, are showed. Lastly, the importance of homogenising criteria to create hazard inventories and build memory, efficient risk communication and warning methods as well as active dialogue with and between public and private stakeholders, is highlighted.

  19. Operation condition for continuous anti-solvent crystallization of CBZ-SAC cocrystal considering deposition risk of undesired crystals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nishimaru, Momoko; Nakasa, Miku; Kudo, Shoji; Takiyama, Hiroshi

    2017-07-01

    Crystallization operation of cocrystal production has deposition risk of undesired crystals. Simultaneously, continuous manufacturing processes are focused on. In this study, conditions for continuous cocrystallization considering risk reduction of undesired crystals deposition were investigated on the view point of thermodynamics and kinetics. The anti-solvent cocrystallization was carried out in four-component system of carbamazepine, saccharin, methanol and water. From the preliminary batch experiment, the relationships among undesired crystal deposition, solution composition decided by mixing ratio of solutions, and residence time for the crystals were considered, and then the conditions of continuous experiment were decided. Under these conditions, the continuous experiment was carried out. The XRD patterns of obtained crystals in the continuous experiment showed that desired cocrystals were obtained without undesired crystals. This experimental result was evaluated by using multi-component phase diagrams from the view point of the operation point's movement. From the evaluation, it was found that there is a certain operation condition which the operation point is fixed with time in the specific domain without the deposition risk of undesired single component crystals. It means the possibility of continuous production of cocrystals without deposition risk of undesired crystals was confirmed by using multi-component phase diagrams.

  20. Risk factors for surgical site infection following operative ankle fracture fixation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelly, E G; Cashman, J P; Groarke, P J; Morris, S F

    2013-09-01

    Ankle fracture is a common injury and there is an increasingly greater emphasis on operative fixation. The purpose of the study was to determine the complication rate in this cohort of patients and, in doing so, determine risk factors which predispose to surgical site infection. A prospective cohort study was performed at a tertiary referral trauma center examining risk factors for surgical site infection in operatively treated ankle fractures. Univariate and multivariate analysis was performed. Female gender and advancing age were determined to be the risk factors in univariate analysis. Drain usage and peri-operative pyrexia were found to be significant for infection in multivariate analysis. This study allows surgeons to identify those at increased risk of infection and counsel them appropriately. It also allows for a high level of vigilance with regard to soft tissue handling intra-operatively in this higher risk group.

  1. A Nonparametric Operational Risk Modeling Approach Based on Cornish-Fisher Expansion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaoqian Zhu

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available It is generally accepted that the choice of severity distribution in loss distribution approach has a significant effect on the operational risk capital estimation. However, the usually used parametric approaches with predefined distribution assumption might be not able to fit the severity distribution accurately. The objective of this paper is to propose a nonparametric operational risk modeling approach based on Cornish-Fisher expansion. In this approach, the samples of severity are generated by Cornish-Fisher expansion and then used in the Monte Carlo simulation to sketch the annual operational loss distribution. In the experiment, the proposed approach is employed to calculate the operational risk capital charge for the overall Chinese banking. The experiment dataset is the most comprehensive operational risk dataset in China as far as we know. The results show that the proposed approach is able to use the information of high order moments and might be more effective and stable than the usually used parametric approach.

  2. The Risk Assessment of the Firm Activity Using the Operating Lever

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anca-Jarmila GUTA

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper aims identify the ways in which the risk generally and specifically operating the risk can compete in the failure or success of a business. For awareness phenomena, actions and events that can generate losses for the adoption of prudent behavior it is necessary in a first step to identify the types of risk that a company may face. For the company that makes the subject of this paper have revealed a risk of exploitation by means of operating leverage, expressing elasticity operating result of the company in relation to its turn over. Analysing the evolution of the society we found that increasing the volume of activity on the period under study led to an increase in operating leverage which means that society has become more risky because it involves revenue growth and increased operating costs.

  3. Evaluation of an inpatient fall risk screening tool to identify the most critical fall risk factors in inpatients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hou, Wen-Hsuan; Kang, Chun-Mei; Ho, Mu-Hsing; Kuo, Jessie Ming-Chuan; Chen, Hsiao-Lien; Chang, Wen-Yin

    2017-03-01

    To evaluate the accuracy of the inpatient fall risk screening tool and to identify the most critical fall risk factors in inpatients. Variations exist in several screening tools applied in acute care hospitals for examining risk factors for falls and identifying high-risk inpatients. Secondary data analysis. A subset of inpatient data for the period from June 2011-June 2014 was extracted from the nursing information system and adverse event reporting system of an 818-bed teaching medical centre in Taipei. Data were analysed using descriptive statistics, receiver operating characteristic curve analysis and logistic regression analysis. During the study period, 205 fallers and 37,232 nonfallers were identified. The results revealed that the inpatient fall risk screening tool (cut-off point of ≥3) had a low sensitivity level (60%), satisfactory specificity (87%), a positive predictive value of 2·0% and a negative predictive value of 99%. The receiver operating characteristic curve analysis revealed an area under the curve of 0·805 (sensitivity, 71·8%; specificity, 78%). To increase the sensitivity values, the Youden index suggests at least 1·5 points to be the most suitable cut-off point for the inpatient fall risk screening tool. Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed a considerably increased fall risk in patients with impaired balance and impaired elimination. The fall risk factor was also significantly associated with days of hospital stay and with admission to surgical wards. The findings can raise awareness about the two most critical risk factors for falls among future clinical nurses and other healthcare professionals and thus facilitate the development of fall prevention interventions. This study highlights the needs for redefining the cut-off points of the inpatient fall risk screening tool to effectively identify inpatients at a high risk of falls. Furthermore, inpatients with impaired balance and impaired elimination should be closely

  4. Risk evaluation of remedial alternatives for the Hanford Site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clark, S.W.; Lane, N.K.; Swenson, L.

    1994-01-01

    Risk assessment is one of the many tools used to evaluate and select remedial alternatives and evaluate the risk associated with selected remedial alternatives during and after implementation. The risk evaluation of remedial alternatives (RERA) is performed to ensure selected alternatives are protective of human health and the environment. Final remedy selection is promulgated in a record of decision (ROD) and risks of the selected alternatives are documented. Included in the ROD documentation are the risk-related analyses for long-term effectiveness, short-term effectiveness, and overall protection of human health and the environment including how a remedy will eliminate, reduce or control risks and whether exposure will be reduced to acceptable levels. A major goal of RERA in the process leading to a ROD is to provide decision-makers with specific risk information that may be needed to choose among alternatives. For the Hanford Site, there are many considerations that must be addressed from a risk perspective. These include the large size of the Hanford Site, the presence of both chemical and radionuclide contamination, one likelihood of many analogues sites, public and worker health and safety, and stakeholder concern with ecological impacts from site contamination and remedial actions. A RERA methodology has been promulgated to (1) identify the points in the process leading to a ROD where risk assessment input is either required or desirable and (2) provide guidance on how to evaluate risks associated with remedial alternatives under consideration. The methodology and evaluations parallel EPA guidance requiring consideration of short-term impacts and the overall protectiveness of remedial actions for evaluating potential human health and ecological risks during selection of remedial alternatives, implementation of remedial measures, and following completion of remedial action

  5. Field study evaluation of diffuse ceiling ventilation in classroom during real operating conditions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kristensen, Martin Heine; Jensen, Jakob Søland; Heiselberg, Per Kvols

    2017-01-01

    Highlights •Field experimental measurements during real operating conditions. •Evaluation of pressure chamber effect. •Evaluation of displacement effect. •Evaluation of thermal comfort.......Highlights •Field experimental measurements during real operating conditions. •Evaluation of pressure chamber effect. •Evaluation of displacement effect. •Evaluation of thermal comfort....

  6. Bank branch operating efficiency: evaluation with data envelopment analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roozbeh Talebi Zarinkamar

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Measuring the relative efficiency of similar units has been a popular research especially when the units were mostly non-financial. Even, similar financial units may not be necessarily evaluated based on traditional financial figures such as return of equities, return of assets, etc. In this paper, we present an empirical investigation to measure the relative efficiency of 30 branches of an Iranian bank named Bank Mellat. The study considers four inputs including operating expenses, interest paid, capital expenditures and fixed assets. In addition, we use customers’ bank deposit, commissions and loans paid as output parameters. Using three different data envelopment analyses, the study measures the relative efficiencies of all units. The preliminary results indicate that most banks were working under desirable level of efficiency.

  7. Health risk evaluation of nitrogen oxides

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Berglund, M; Ewetz, L; Gustafsson, L; Moldeus, P; Pershagen, G; Victorin, K [Karolinska Inst., Stockholm (Sweden). Inst. of Environmental Medicine

    1996-12-31

    At the request of the Swedish Environmental Protection Agency a criteria document on nitrogen oxides has been prepared, and is intended to serve as a basis for revised air quality standards in Sweden. The criteria document is based on a thorough literature survey, and the health risk assessment is summarized in this presentation. The present standard for nitrogen dioxide (NO{sub 2}) is 110 {mu}g/m{sup 3} as 1-hour mean (98th percentile); 75 {mu}g/m{sup 3} as 24- hour mean (98th percentile); and 50 {mu}g/m{sup 3} as 6-month mean (arithmetic eman during winter half-year). (author)

  8. Health risk evaluation of nitrogen oxides

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Berglund, M.; Ewetz, L.; Gustafsson, L.; Moldeus, P.; Pershagen, G.; Victorin, K. [Karolinska Inst., Stockholm (Sweden). Inst. of Environmental Medicine

    1995-12-31

    At the request of the Swedish Environmental Protection Agency a criteria document on nitrogen oxides has been prepared, and is intended to serve as a basis for revised air quality standards in Sweden. The criteria document is based on a thorough literature survey, and the health risk assessment is summarized in this presentation. The present standard for nitrogen dioxide (NO{sub 2}) is 110 {mu}g/m{sup 3} as 1-hour mean (98th percentile); 75 {mu}g/m{sup 3} as 24- hour mean (98th percentile); and 50 {mu}g/m{sup 3} as 6-month mean (arithmetic eman during winter half-year). (author)

  9. Evaluation of potential distractors in the urology operating room.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Jason Y; Lantz, Andrea G; McDougall, Elspeth M; Landman, Jaime; Gettman, Matthew; Sweet, Robert; Sundaram, Chandru P; Zorn, Kevin C

    2013-09-01

    Surgical outcomes depend on patient and disease-related factors, as well as the technical skill of the surgeon. Various distractions in the operating room (OR) environment have been shown to negatively impact a surgeon's performance. A survey was conducted with the objective to evaluate and characterize distractions during urologic surgery. An Internet-based survey was distributed to 2057 international urologists via email between April and October 2011; questions focused on a variety of disruptive factors postulated to have a negative impact on surgical performance. Of the 523 (25%) respondents, 58% practiced in North America, 42% were from an academic institution, and 68% had completed a clinical fellowship. In an average year, 83% reported having operated at least once while sleep deprived, 84% when significantly ill, 55% with a musculoskeletal injury, and 65% under significant social stress. Up to 38% reported that on at least one occasion, such "internal distractions" had significantly affected surgical performance and 14% perceived that at least one surgical complication was caused mainly by an internal distraction. Less than 50% had ever cancelled surgery because of an internal distraction. Music was routinely played in the OR by 57% of respondents, >67% reported answering pages and discussing consults while operating, and 25% reported "commonly" working with scrub nurses/techs that were unfamiliar with the procedure and/or instruments. Only 44% had consistent individual(s) assisting, and 27% reported that the scrub nurse/tech would "commonly" scrub out during a critical portion of the procedure. Overall, 14.5% reported that at least one complication had occurred mainly because of such "external" or "interactive" distractions. Urologists face various distractions in the OR that can negatively impact surgical performance, potentially compromising patient outcomes and safety. Further studies are needed to elucidate the true impact of such distractions and to

  10. Plant operator performance evaluation based on cognitive process analysis experiment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ujita, H.; Fukuda, M.

    1990-01-01

    This paper reports on an experiment to clarify plant operators' cognitive processes that has been performed, to improve the man-machine interface which supports their diagnoses and decisions. The cognitive processes under abnormal conditions were evaluated by protocol analyses interviews, etc. in the experiment using a plant training simulator. A cognitive process model is represented by a stochastic network, based on Rasmussen's decision making model. Each node of the network corresponds to an element of the cognitive process, such as observation, interpretation, execution, etc. Some observations were obtained as follows, by comparison of Monte Carlo simulation results with the experiment results: A process to reconfirm the plant parameters after execution of a task and feedback paths from this process to the observation and the task definition of next task were observed. The feedback probability average and standard deviation should be determined for each incident type to explain correctly the individual differences in the cognitive processes. The tendency for the operator's cognitive level to change from skill-based to knowledge-based via rule-based behavior was observed during the feedback process

  11. Communicating Sustainability: An Operational Model for Evaluating Corporate Websites

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alfonso Siano

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The interest in corporate sustainability has increased rapidly in recent years and has encouraged organizations to adopt appropriate digital communication strategies, in which the corporate website plays a key role. Despite this growing attention in both the academic and business communities, models for the analysis and evaluation of online sustainability communication have not been developed to date. This paper aims to develop an operational model to identify and assess the requirements of sustainability communication in corporate websites. It has been developed from a literature review on corporate sustainability and digital communication and the analysis of the websites of the organizations included in the “Global CSR RepTrak 2015” by the Reputation Institute. The model identifies the core dimensions of online sustainability communication (orientation, structure, ergonomics, content—OSEC, sub-dimensions, such as stakeholder engagement and governance tools, communication principles, and measurable items (e.g., presence of the materiality matrix, interactive graphs. A pilot study on the websites of the energy and utilities companies included in the Dow Jones Sustainability World Index 2015 confirms the applicability of the OSEC framework. Thus, the model can provide managers and digital communication consultants with an operational tool that is useful for developing an industry ranking and assessing the best practices. The model can also help practitioners to identify corrective actions in the critical areas of digital sustainability communication and avoid greenwashing.

  12. Operative and economic evaluation of a 'Laser Printer Multimodality' System

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Battaglia, G.; Moscatelli, G.; Maroldi, R.; Chiesa, A.

    1991-01-01

    The increasing application of digital techniques to diagnostic imaging is causing significant changes in several related activities, such as a reproduction of digital images on film. In the Department of Diagnostic Imaging of the University of Brescia, about 70% of the whole of images are produced by digital techniques; at present, most of these images are reproduced on film with a Multimodality System interfacing CT, MR, DSA, and DR units with a single laser printer. Our analysis evaluates the operative and economics aspects of image reproduction, by comparing the 'single cassette' multiformat Camera and the Laser Printer Multimodality SAystem. Our results point out the advantages obtained by reproducing images with a Laser Printer Multimodality System: outstanding quality, reproduction of multiple originals, and marked reduction in the time needed for both image archiving and film handling. The Laser Printer Multimodality System allows over 5 hours/day to be saved -that is to say the working day of an operator, who can be thus shifted to other functions. The important economic aspect of the reproduction of digital images on film proves the Laser Printer Multimodality System to have some advantage over Cameras

  13. Evaluation of temperature distribution in a containment vessel during operation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Utanohara, Yoichi; Murase, Michio; Yanagi, Chihiro; Masui, Akihiro; Inomata, Ryo; Kamiya, Yuji

    2012-01-01

    For safety analysis of the containment vessel (CV) in a nuclear power plant, the average temperature of the gas phase in the CV during operation is used as an initial condition. An actual CV, however, has a temperature distribution, which makes the estimation of the average temperature difficult. Numerical simulation seems to be useful for the average temperature estimation, but it has several difficulties such as predictions of temperature distribution in a large and closed space that has several compartments, and modeling the heat generating components and the convection-diffusion of heat by ventilation air-conditioning systems. The main purpose of this study was to simulate the temperature distribution and evaluate the average temperature in the CV of a three-loop pressurized water reactor (PWR) during the reactor operation. The simulation considered the heat generation of equipment, flow due to the ventilation and air conditioning systems, heat loss to the CV exterior, and the solar heat. The predicted temperature distribution was significantly affected by the flow. Particularly, openings, which became flow paths, affected the temperature distribution. The temperature increased with a rise in height within the CV and the flow field seemed to transform from forced convection to natural convection. The volume-averaged temperature was different between gas and solid (concrete, CV wall) phases as well as between heights. The total volume-averaged temperature of the CV was nearly equal to the average gas phase temperature. It was found to be easy to evaluate the effect of openings on the temperature distribution and estimate the average temperature in CV by numerical simulation. (author)

  14. Application of Fuzzy Logic Inference System, Interval Numbers and Mapping Operator for Determination of Risk Level

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohsen Omidvar

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Background & objective: Due to the features such as intuitive graphical appearance, ease of perception and straightforward applicability, risk matrix has become as one of the most used risk assessment tools. On the other hand, features such as the lack of precision in the classification of risk index, as well as subjective computational process, has limited its use. In order to solve this problem, in the current study we used fuzzy logic inference systems and mathematical operators (interval numbers and mapping operator. Methods: In this study, first 10 risk scenarios in the excavation and piping process were selected, then the outcome of the risk assessment were studied using four types of matrix including traditional (ORM, displaced cells (RCM , extended (ERM and fuzzy (FRM risk matrixes. Results: The results showed that the use of FRM and ERM matrix have prority, due to the high level of " Risk Tie Density" (RTD and "Risk Level Density" (RLD in the ORM and RCM matrix, as well as more accurate results presented in FRM and ERM, in risk assessment. While, FRM matrix provides more reliable results due to the application of fuzzy membership functions. Conclusion: Using new mathematical issues such as fuzzy sets and arithmetic and mapping operators for risk assessment could improve the accuracy of risk matrix and increase the reliability of the risk assessment results, when the accurate data are not available, or its data are avaliable in a limit range.

  15. Chemical risk evaluation data sources summary

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carrillo, M.

    2013-01-01

    The power point presentation is about danger identification, threshold, data concentration PreR, data concentration PosT, timely and probabilistic estimation, deterministic and precise estimates, consumers loyal, Probabilistic models, Random sampling (Monte Carlo simulation), modeling for the evaluation of acute and chronic dietary, dietary exposure assessments acute

  16. Planning Risk-Based SQC Schedules for Bracketed Operation of Continuous Production Analyzers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Westgard, James O; Bayat, Hassan; Westgard, Sten A

    2018-02-01

    To minimize patient risk, "bracketed" statistical quality control (SQC) is recommended in the new CLSI guidelines for SQC (C24-Ed4). Bracketed SQC requires that a QC event both precedes and follows (brackets) a group of patient samples. In optimizing a QC schedule, the frequency of QC or run size becomes an important planning consideration to maintain quality and also facilitate responsive reporting of results from continuous operation of high production analytic systems. Different plans for optimizing a bracketed SQC schedule were investigated on the basis of Parvin's model for patient risk and CLSI C24-Ed4's recommendations for establishing QC schedules. A Sigma-metric run size nomogram was used to evaluate different QC schedules for processes of different sigma performance. For high Sigma performance, an effective SQC approach is to employ a multistage QC procedure utilizing a "startup" design at the beginning of production and a "monitor" design periodically throughout production. Example QC schedules are illustrated for applications with measurement procedures having 6-σ, 5-σ, and 4-σ performance. Continuous production analyzers that demonstrate high σ performance can be effectively controlled with multistage SQC designs that employ a startup QC event followed by periodic monitoring or bracketing QC events. Such designs can be optimized to minimize the risk of harm to patients. © 2017 American Association for Clinical Chemistry.

  17. Guide of Evaluation of the Operation of Incinerators of Solid Waste in Costa Rica

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Herrera Sanchez, J.

    2001-01-01

    This project has as general objective to prepare, in accordance with the effective Costa Rica legislation, a guide to evaluate the operation of incinerators of solid waste in Costa Rica. For this, it was necessary to define the parameters and approaches to evaluate the operation of an incineration center, as well as to investigate the regulations related with the topic in our country and to detail the technical specifications of equipment of this nature.The guide embraces such aspects as the specifications of the equipment and chimney, the type of waste to incinerate, the control of gassy emissions and the administration of the scums, distributed in several sections: administration, legislation, waste type, details technician, control and operation. Initially, the state of operation of an incinerator belonging to a hospital center and the project of energy recycling that impels the National Industry of Cements are evaluated. A study of the current state of the incineration of waste in the country must monitor the gassy emissions, the variables of the water heater-chemical process and the operation conditions. For limitations in the availability of the data and for the non existence of similar studies in the country, some of the parameters proposed in the guide are not evaluated. According to spokesmen of the Ministry of Public Health, only five incinerators operate in the country. Of these, none has location permission, construction or sanitary permission of operation, and data on their operation conditions are not carried, neither control of the incinerated waste is taken, of its operation frequency and even less the generated gassy emissions. It is necessary to adapt the standards of emission of Costa Rica (PRONASA Report) to the international standards, incorporating new pollutants (dioxins, furanos) and appropriating the existent ones (solid particles). In the case of our country, the incineration should be constituted in a stage of the process of integral

  18. HOW TO MAKE MAGNESIUM ALLOYS BE RESISTANT TO OPERATIONAL RISKS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. M. Chigrinova

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper studies regularities and mechanisms of structure and phase formation in the surface layers of magnesium alloys when they are processed by method of micro-arc oxidation [MAO]. It has been determined that the same specific features of structure formation, namely: existence of a thin dense inner sublayer and a thicker outer sublayer with developed porosity are common for all types of coatings on the surface of magnesium and aluminum alloys. Such structural state of a protective coating can not be considered as a guaranteed protection against operational impacts, taking into account the fields of their primary application that is aviation construction, automotive construction, instrumentation, building construction, etc. The paper has analyzed the effect of alkaline electrolytes with varying chemical composition due to additions of sodium fluoride or potassium on the structure and properties of these alloys as well as on the level of basic performance characteristics of the layers formed in such electrolytes. On the basis of the analysis a conclusion has been made that it is possible to extend their life-span under operational conditions. It has been revealed that the existing techniques and methods for process control of MAO aluminum and magnesium alloys, particularly processing modes and technological equipment capacity determine a nature of structure formation and changes in a phase composition of the formed coatings.

  19. The nuclear industry's transition to risk-informed regulation and operation in the United States

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kadak, Andrew C.; Matsuo, Toshihiro

    2007-01-01

    This paper summarizes a study of the transition of the United States nuclear industry from a prescriptive regulatory structure to a more risk informed approach to operations and regulations. The transition occurred over a 20 yr period in which gradual changes were made in the fundamental regulations and to the approach to nuclear safety and operations. While the number of actual regulatory changes were few, they are continuing. The utilities that embraced risk informed operations made dramatic changes in the way they approached operations and outage management. Those utilities that used risk in operations showed dramatic improvement in safety based on Institute of Nuclear Power Operations (INPO) performance indicators. It was also shown that the use of risk did not negatively affect safety performance of the plants compared to standard prescriptive approaches. This was despite having greater flexibility in compliance to regulatory standards and the use of the newly instituted risk-informed reactor oversight process. Key factors affecting the successful transition to a more risk-informed approach to regulations and operations are: strong top management support and leadership both at the regulator and the utility; education and training in risk principles and probabilistic risk Assessment tools for engineers, operators and maintenance staff; a slow and steady introduction of risk initiatives in areas that can show value to both the regulator and the industry; a transparent regulatory foundation built around a safety goal policy and the development of a strong safety culture at the utility to allow for more independence in safety compliance and risk management. The experience of the United States shows positive results in both safety and economics. The INPO and NRC metrics presented show that the use of risk information in operations and regulation is marginally better with no degradation in safety when plants that have embraced risk-informed approaches are compared

  20. Evaluation of risk effective STIs with specific application to diesels

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vesely, W.E.; Samanta, P.K.; Ginzburg, T.

    1987-01-01

    From a risk standpoint, the objective of surveillance tests is to control the risk arising from failures which can occur while the component is on standby. At the same time, risks caused by the test from test-caused failures and test-caused degradations need also to be controlled. Risk-acceptable test intervals balance these risks in an attempt to achieve an acceptable low, overall risk. Risk and reliability approaches are presented which allow risk-acceptable test intervals to be determined for any component. To provide focus for the approaches, diesels are specifically evaluated, however, the approaches can be applied not only to diesels, but to any component with suitable data. Incorporation of the approaches in personal computer (PC) software is discussed, which can provide tools for the regulator or plant personnel for determining acceptable diesel test intervals for any plant specific or generic application. The FRANTIC III computer code was run to validate the approaches and to evaluate specific issues associated with determining risk effective test intervals for diesels. Using the approaches presented, diesel accident unavailability can be more effectively monitored and be controlled on a plant-specific or generic basis. Test intervals can be made more risk effective than they are now, producing more acceptable accident unavailabilities. The methods presented are one step toward performance-based technical specifications, which more directly control risks

  1. Evaluating shielding effectiveness for reducing space radiation cancer risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cucinotta, Francis A.; Kim, Myung-Hee Y.; Ren, Lei

    2006-01-01

    We discuss calculations of probability distribution functions (PDF) representing uncertainties in projecting fatal cancer risk from galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and solar particle events (SPE). The PDFs are used in significance tests for evaluating the effectiveness of potential radiation shielding approaches. Uncertainties in risk coefficients determined from epidemiology data, dose and dose-rate reduction factors, quality factors, and physics models of radiation environments are considered in models of cancer risk PDFs. Competing mortality risks and functional correlations in radiation quality factor uncertainties are included in the calculations. We show that the cancer risk uncertainty, defined as the ratio of the upper value of 95% confidence interval (CI) to the point estimate is about 4-fold for lunar and Mars mission risk projections. For short-stay lunar missions ( 180d) or Mars missions, GCR risks may exceed radiation risk limits that are based on acceptable levels of risk. For example, the upper 95% CI exceeding 10% fatal risk for males and females on a Mars mission. For reducing GCR cancer risks, shielding materials are marginally effective because of the penetrating nature of GCR and secondary radiation produced in tissue by relativistic particles. At the present time, polyethylene or carbon composite shielding cannot be shown to significantly reduce risk compared to aluminum shielding based on a significance test that accounts for radiobiology uncertainties in GCR risk projection

  2. The management of operational value at risk in banks / Ja'nel Tobias Esterhuysen

    OpenAIRE

    Esterhuysen, Ja'nel Tobias

    2006-01-01

    The measurement of operational risk has surely been one of the biggest challenges for banks worldwide. Most banks worldwide have opted for a value-at-risk (VaR) approach, based on the success achieved with market risk, to measure and quantify operational risk. The problem banks have is that they do not always find it difficult to calculate this VaR figure, as there are numerous mathematical and statistical methods and models that can calculate VaR, but they struggle to understa...

  3. Evaluation of cable aging degradation based on plant operating condition

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Jong-Seog

    2005-01-01

    Extending the lifetime of nuclear power plant [(hereafter referred simply as ''NPP'')] is one of the most important concerns in the world nuclear industry. Cables are one of the long live items which have not been considered to be replaced during the design life of NPP. To extend the cable life beyond the design life, we need to prove that the design life is too conservative compared with the actual aging. Condition monitoring is one of the useful ways for evaluating the aging condition of cable. In order to simulate the natural aging in nuclear power plant, a study on accelerated aging needs to be conducted first. In this paper, evaluations of mechanical aging degradation for cable jacket were performed after accelerated aging under the continuous heating and intermittent heating. Contrary to general expectation, the intermittent heating to cable jacket showed low aging degradation, 50% break-elongation and 60% indenter modulus, compared with continuous heating. With the plant maintenance period of 1 month after every 12 or 18 months operation, we can easily deduce that the life time of cable jacket can be extended much longer than estimated through the general EQ (Environmental Qualification) test, which adopts continuous accelerated aging for determining cable life. Therefore, a systematic approach which considers the actual environment condition of nuclear power plant is required for determining the life of cables. (author)

  4. Rethinking ASME III seismic analysis for piping operability evaluations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Adams, T.M.; Stevenson, J.D.

    1994-01-01

    It has been recognized since the mid 1980's that there are very large seismic margins to failure for nuclear piping systems when designed using current industry practice, design criteria, and methods. As a result of this realization there are or have been approximately eighteen initiatives within the ASME , Boiler and Pressure Vessel Code Section III, Division 1, in the form of proposed code cases and proposed code text changes designed to reduce these failure margins to more realistic values. For the most part these initiatives have concentrated on reclassifying seismic inertia stresses in the piping as secondary and increasing the allowable stress limits permitted by Section III of the ASME, Boiler Code. This paper focuses on the application of non-linear spectral analysis methods as a method to reduce the input seismic demand determination and thereby reduce the seismic failure margins. The approach is evaluated using the ASME Boiler Pressure Vessel Code Section III Subgroup on Design benchmark procedure as proposed by the Subgroup's Special Task Group on Integrated Piping Criteria. Using this procedure, criteria are compared to current code criterion and analysis methods, and several other of the currently proposed Boiler and Pressure Vessel, Section III, changes. Finally, the applicability of the non-linear spectral analysis to continued Safe Operation Evaluations is reviewed and discussed

  5. Evaluation of LWR fuel rod behavior under operational transient conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nakamura, M.; Hiramoto, K.; Maru, A.

    1984-01-01

    To evaluate the effects of fission gas flow and diffusion in the fuel-cladding gap on fuel rod thermal and mechanical behaviors in light water reactor (LWR) fuel rods under operational transient conditions, computer sub-programs which can calculate the gas flow and diffusion have been developed and integrated into the LWR fuel rod performance code BEAF. This integrated code also calculates transient temperature distribution in the fuel-pellet and cladding. The integrated code was applied to an analysis of Inter Ramp Project data, which showed that by taking into account the gas flow and diffusion effects, the calculated cladding damage indices predicted for the failed rods in the ramp test were consistent with iodine-SCC (Stress Corrosion Cracking) failure conditions which were obtained from out-of-reactor pressurized tube experiments with irradiated Zircaloy claddings. This consistency was not seen if the gas flow and diffusion effects were neglected. Evaluation were also made for the BWR 8x8 RJ fuel rod temperatures under power ramp conditions. (orig.)

  6. Youth Suicide Risk: Evaluation and Crisis Intervention

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Catarina Pereira

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available Suicide attempts and suicidal behaviours represent a complex problem, with high prevalence in adolescence. The management of youth suicidal behaviour may occur in diverse contexts of child and adolescent psychiatric activity, not only in the emergency room, but also in liaison work and ambulatory consultation. In suicidal crisis intervention it ́s fundamental to involve the youth and the family as this represents a crucial moment for clinical assessment and treatment compliance. This review on child and adolescent suicidal behaviour focuses on characterizing and understanding the developmental features of these behaviours, risk and protection factors and it offers orientations about assessment and acute management of children and adolescents who present with suicidal behaviour.

  7. A Novel Stress-Diathesis Model to Predict Risk of Post-operative Delirium: Implications for Intra-operative Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Renée El-Gabalawy

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Risk assessment for post-operative delirium (POD is poorly developed. Improved metrics could greatly facilitate peri-operative care as costs associated with POD are staggering. In this preliminary study, we develop a novel stress-diathesis model based on comprehensive pre-operative psychiatric and neuropsychological testing, a blood oxygenation level-dependent (BOLD magnetic resonance imaging (MRI carbon dioxide (CO2 stress test, and high fidelity measures of intra-operative parameters that may interact facilitating POD.Methods: The study was approved by the ethics board at the University of Manitoba and registered at clinicaltrials.gov as NCT02126215. Twelve patients were studied. Pre-operative psychiatric symptom measures and neuropsychological testing preceded MRI featuring a BOLD MRI CO2 stress test whereby BOLD scans were conducted while exposing participants to a rigorously controlled CO2 stimulus. During surgery the patient had hemodynamics and end-tidal gases downloaded at 0.5 hz. Post-operatively, the presence of POD and POD severity was comprehensively assessed using the Confusion Assessment Measure –Severity (CAM-S scoring instrument on days 0 (surgery through post-operative day 5, and patients were followed up at least 1 month post-operatively.Results: Six of 12 patients had no evidence of POD (non-POD. Three patients had POD and 3 had clinically significant confusional states (referred as subthreshold POD; ST-POD (score ≥ 5/19 on the CAM-S. Average severity for delirium was 1.3 in the non-POD group, 3.2 in ST-POD, and 6.1 in POD (F-statistic = 15.4, p < 0.001. Depressive symptoms, and cognitive measures of semantic fluency and executive functioning/processing speed were significantly associated with POD. Second level analysis revealed an increased inverse BOLD responsiveness to CO2 pre-operatively in ST-POD and marked increase in the POD groups when compared to the non-POD group. An association was also noted for

  8. Evaluation of effective dose and excess lifetime cancer risk from ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Evaluation of effective dose and excess lifetime cancer risk from indoor and outdoor gamma dose rate of university of Port Harcourt Teaching Hospital, Rivers State. ... Therefore, the management of University of Port Harcourt teaching hospital ...

  9. Credit Risk Evaluation System For Nigerian Banks Using Artificial Ne

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    MANKABS

    CREDIT RISK EVALUATION SYSTEM: AN ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK APPROACH of their own experiential .... limitations concern the high computational ... Number of existing credits at this bank. 7. Personal status and sex. 14. Job. 17.

  10. Risk-Based Operation and Maintenance of Offshore Wind Turbines

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Jannie Sønderkær

    For offshore wind turbines, maintenance costs are substantial due to a large number of component failures. In addition to the repair costs, equipment costs and lost production costs are large due to limited accessibility to the turbines. In order to reduce the costs, preventive methods can be used......, but presently maintenance is not planned using advanced methods taking all available information into account in a consistent manner. Maintenance decisions can be made based on risk-based methods, where the total expected life cycle costs are minimized. Methods have been developed for assessing the corrective...... maintenance costs, and many studies have also been published for preventive maintenance. However, an important part is the modeling of the relationship between maintenance and reliability, which is typically not modeled in a consistent way. Therefore, the methods cannot be used directly for optimal...

  11. Credit Risk Evaluation System: An Artificial Neural Network Approach

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    On the other hand, this kind of bank's activity is connected with high risk as big amount of bad decisions may even cause bankruptcy. The key problem consists of distinguishing good (that surely repay) and bad (that likely default) credit applicants. Credit risk evaluation is an important and interesting management science ...

  12. Credit Risk Evaluation of Power Market Players with Random Forest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Umezawa, Yasushi; Mori, Hiroyuki

    A new method is proposed for credit risk evaluation in a power market. The credit risk evaluation is to measure the bankruptcy risk of the company. The power system liberalization results in new environment that puts emphasis on the profit maximization and the risk minimization. There is a high probability that the electricity transaction causes a risk between companies. So, power market players are concerned with the risk minimization. As a management strategy, a risk index is requested to evaluate the worth of the business partner. This paper proposes a new method for evaluating the credit risk with Random Forest (RF) that makes ensemble learning for the decision tree. RF is one of efficient data mining technique in clustering data and extracting relationship between input and output data. In addition, the method of generating pseudo-measurements is proposed to improve the performance of RF. The proposed method is successfully applied to real financial data of energy utilities in the power market. A comparison is made between the proposed and the conventional methods.

  13. Evaluation of the Prostate Cancer Prevention Trial Risk Calculator in a High-Risk Screening Population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaplan, David J.; Boorjian, Stephen A.; Ruth, Karen; Egleston, Brian L.; Chen, David Y.T.; Viterbo, Rosalia; Uzzo, Robert G.; Buyyounouski, Mark K.; Raysor, Susan; Giri, Veda N.

    2009-01-01

    Introduction Clinical factors in addition to PSA have been evaluated to improve risk assessment for prostate cancer. The Prostate Cancer Prevention Trial (PCPT) risk calculator provides an assessment of prostate cancer risk based on age, PSA, race, prior biopsy, and family history. This study evaluated the risk calculator in a screening cohort of young, racially diverse, high-risk men with a low baseline PSA enrolled in the Prostate Cancer Risk Assessment Program. Patients and Methods Eligibility for PRAP include men ages 35-69 who are African-American, have a family history of prostate cancer, or have a known BRCA1/2 mutation. PCPT risk scores were determined for PRAP participants, and were compared to observed prostate cancer rates. Results 624 participants were evaluated, including 382 (61.2%) African-American men and 375 (60%) men with a family history of prostate cancer. Median age was 49.0 years (range 34.0-69.0), and median PSA was 0.9 (range 0.1-27.2). PCPT risk score correlated with prostate cancer diagnosis, as the median baseline risk score in patients diagnosed with prostate cancer was 31.3%, versus 14.2% in patients not diagnosed with prostate cancer (p<0.0001). The PCPT calculator similarly stratified the risk of diagnosis of Gleason score ≥7 disease, as the median risk score was 36.2% in patients diagnosed with Gleason ≥7 prostate cancer versus 15.2% in all other participants (p<0.0001). Conclusion PCPT risk calculator score was found to stratify prostate cancer risk in a cohort of young, primarily African-American men with a low baseline PSA. These results support further evaluation of this predictive tool for prostate cancer risk assessment in high-risk men. PMID:19709072

  14. Operational risk in bank governance and control: How to save capital requirement through a risk transfer strategy. Evidences from a simulated case study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Enzo Scannella

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Operational risk management in banking has assumed such importance during the last decade. It has become increasingly important to measure, manage, and assess the impact of operational risk in the economics of banking. The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate how an effective operational risk management provides mitigating effects on capital-at-risk in banking. The paper provides evidences that an implementation of an operational risk transfer strategy reduces bank capital requirement. The paper adopts the loss distribution approach, the Monte Carlo simulation, and copula methodologies to estimate the regulatory capital and simulate an operational risk transfer strategy in banking.

  15. Pipeline integrity handbook risk management and evaluation

    CERN Document Server

    Singh, Ramesh

    2013-01-01

    Based on over 40 years of experience in the field, Ramesh Singh goes beyond corrosion control, providing techniques for addressing present and future integrity issues. Pipeline Integrity Handbook provides pipeline engineers with the tools to evaluate and inspect pipelines, safeguard the life cycle of their pipeline asset and ensure that they are optimizing delivery and capability. Presented in easy-to-use, step-by-step order, Pipeline Integrity Handbook is a quick reference for day-to-day use in identifying key pipeline degradation mechanisms and threats to pipeline integrity. The book begins

  16. The use of living PSA for on-line risk management by plant operators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moir, Gordon R.

    2004-01-01

    The concept of Living Probabilistic Safety Assessment (LPSA) has existed for several years and reflects the desire to utilise the knowledge gained in producing PSAs for nuclear power plants. In most countries the regulator requires that PSA are performed on all new nuclear power plants in order to demonstrate that the design and operation of the plant will meet the required safety standards. In the past, having satisfied the regulator, these PSAs were then regarded as having served their purpose and 'put on the shelf'. In the course of time all plants undergo modification, operational procedures change and develop, and plant specific reliability data becomes available throughout the lifetime of the plant. The original plant specific PSA will therefore rapidly become outdated and need revision. The concept of LPSA is therefore to provide a vehicle for evaluating the effect of plant changes throughout the plant's lifetime. Within the framework of LPSA 'living' can mean anything from updating the PSA infrequently, e.g. as and when major design changes are implemented, to updating the PSA in real time as plant is made unavailable due to maintenance or failure. Constructing and analysing plant specific PSA takes man years of effort in analysing all safety related systems. The result is a very detailed model of the interactions between systems and how they can fail. In order to gain the maximum benefit from this extensive and detailed knowledge base. Nuclear Electric has been involved in the development of PSA codes which enable rapid assessment of PSA. The development of such a code, the Essential Systems Status Monitor (ESSM), has allowed interactive use of the PSA and has maximised the benefit of the knowledge held in the PSA to plan and manage low risk maintenance strategies. The paper describes how the emphasis in the development of the ESSM has been to provide the operator with an interactive LPSA facility to maximise the use and benefits of the original PSA model

  17. OR.NET: multi-perspective qualitative evaluation of an integrated operating room based on IEEE 11073 SDC.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rockstroh, M; Franke, S; Hofer, M; Will, A; Kasparick, M; Andersen, B; Neumuth, T

    2017-08-01

    Clinical working environments have become very complex imposing many different tasks in diagnosis, medical treatment, and care procedures. During the German flagship project OR.NET, more than 50 partners developed technologies for an open integration of medical devices and IT systems in the operating room. The aim of the present work was to evaluate a large set of the proposed concepts from the perspectives of various stakeholders. The demonstration OR is focused on interventions from the head and neck surgery and was developed in close cooperation with surgeons and numerous colleagues of the project partners. The demonstration OR was qualitatively evaluated including technical as well as clinical aspects. In the evaluation, a questionnaire was used to obtain feedback from hospital operators. The clinical implications were covered by structured interviews with surgeons, anesthesiologists and OR staff. In the present work, we qualitatively evaluate a subset of the proposed concepts from the perspectives of various stakeholders. The feedback of the clinicians indicates that there is a need for a flexible data and control integration. The hospital operators stress the need for tools to simplify risk management in openly integrated operating rooms. The implementation of openly integrated operating rooms will positively affect the surgeons, the anesthesiologists, the surgical nursing staff, as well as the technical personnel and the hospital operators. The evaluation demonstrated the need for OR integration technologies and identified the missing tools to support risk management and approval as the main barriers for future installments.

  18. Risk-benefit evaluation for large technological systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Okrent, D.

    1979-01-01

    The related topics of risk-benefit analysis, risk analysis, and risk-acceptance criteria (How safe is safe enough) are of growing importance. An interdisciplinary study on various aspects of these topics, including applications to nuclear power, was recently completed at the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA), with the support of the National Science Foundation. In addition to more than 30 topical reports and various open-literature publications, a final report (UCLA-ENG-7777) to the study, titled ''A Generalized Evaluation Approach to Risk--Benefit for Large Technological Systems and Its Application to Nuclear Power'', was issued in early 1978. This article briefly summarizes portions of the final report dealing with general aspects of risk-benefit methodology, societal knowledge and perception of risk, and risk-acceptance criteria

  19. is there an increased risk of post-operative surgical site infection

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2012-09-06

    Sep 6, 2012 ... requiring implant orthopaedic surgery are at an increased risk for post-operative surgical ... further studies should determine the effect of reduced CD4 counts, viral load .... Language not Enlish, French, Ducth or German (n=2).

  20. Liquid Pipeline Operator's Control Room Human Factors Risk Assessment and Management Guide

    Science.gov (United States)

    2008-11-26

    The purpose of this guide is to document methodologies, tools, procedures, guidance, and instructions that have been developed to provide liquid pipeline operators with an efficient and effective means of managing the human factors risks in their con...

  1. Analysis and evaluation of operational data. Annual report, 1996

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1997-12-01

    The United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission's Office for Analysis and Evaluation of Operational Data (AEOD) has published reports of its activities since 1984. The first report covered January through June of 1984, and the second report covered July through December of 1984. After those first two semiannual reports, AEOD published annual reports of its activities from 1985 through 1993. Beginning with report for 1986, AEOD Annual Reports have been published as NUREG-1272. Beginning with the report for 1987, NUREG-1272 has been published in two parts, No. 1 covering power reactors and No. 2 covering nonreactors (changed to 'nuclear materials' with the 1993 report). AEOD changed its annual report from a calendar year (CY) to a fiscal year report, and added part No. 3 covering technical training, beginning with the combined Annual Report for CY 1994 and fiscal year 1995, NUREG-1272, Vol. 9, Nos. 1-3. This report, NUREG-1272, Vol. 10, No. 2, covers nuclear materials and presents a review of the events and concerns associated with the use of licensed material in applications other than power reactores. NUREG-1272, Vol. 10, No. 1, covers power reactors and presents an overview of the fiscal year 1996 operating experience of the nuclear power industry from the NRC perspective. NUREG-1272, Vol. 10, No. 3, covers technical training and presents the activities of the Technical Training Center in support of the NRC's mission. Throughout these reports, whenever information is presented for a calendar year, it is so designated. Fiscal year information is designated by the four digits of the fiscal year

  2. Analysis and evaluation of operational data. Annual report, 1996

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1997-12-01

    The United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission`s Office for Analysis and Evaluation of Operational Data (AEOD) has published reports of its activities since 1984. The first report covered January through June of 1984, and the second report covered July through December of 1984. After those first two semiannual reports, AEOD published annual reports of its activities from 1985 through 1993. Beginning with report for 1986, AEOD Annual Reports have been published as NUREG-1272. Beginning with the report for 1987, NUREG-1272 has been published in two parts, No. 1 covering power reactors and No. 2 covering nonreactors (changed to `nuclear materials` with the 1993 report). AEOD changed its annual report from a calendar year (CY) to a fiscal year report, and added part No. 3 covering technical training, beginning with the combined Annual Report for CY 1994 and fiscal year 1995, NUREG-1272, Vol. 9, Nos. 1-3. This report, NUREG-1272, Vol. 10, No. 2, covers nuclear materials and presents a review of the events and concerns associated with the use of licensed material in applications other than power reactores. NUREG-1272, Vol. 10, No. 1, covers power reactors and presents an overview of the fiscal year 1996 operating experience of the nuclear power industry from the NRC perspective. NUREG-1272, Vol. 10, No. 3, covers technical training and presents the activities of the Technical Training Center in support of the NRC`s mission. Throughout these reports, whenever information is presented for a calendar year, it is so designated. Fiscal year information is designated by the four digits of the fiscal year.

  3. Reducing Risks of Arctic Operations with Ice Simulator

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Koponen

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available During the process of development of the Full Mission Bridge Simulator, I have come in to a conclusion that an important part of a successful learning process is the ability to train with a high fidelity bridge simulator. The Polar areas are harsh environments and to survive there, one must have special training and experience. This surviving means that the polar ecosystem will survive from pollution and the vessels and their crew from the bad judgments or misconduct of vessel operators. The most cost-effective way to improve special skills needed in the Polar waters is to include bridge simulator training to the Deck Officers requirements. In this paper I will introduce a real life situation in which an icebreaker assisting a merchant vessel gets into a “close call” situation and how this was handled. Maritime industry hasn’t studied much about the influence simulator training has to the navigators. Here the maritime industry could learn from aviation and medical industry, since they have done some extensive scientific studies to prove the need for simulators.

  4. Risk evaluation of uranium mining: A geochemical inverse modelling approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rillard, J.; Zuddas, P.; Scislewski, A.

    2011-12-01

    It is well known that uranium extraction operations can increase risks linked to radiation exposure. The toxicity of uranium and associated heavy metals is the main environmental concern regarding exploitation and processing of U-ore. In areas where U mining is planned, a careful assessment of toxic and radioactive element concentrations is recommended before the start of mining activities. A background evaluation of harmful elements is important in order to prevent and/or quantify future water contamination resulting from possible migration of toxic metals coming from ore and waste water interaction. Controlled leaching experiments were carried out to investigate processes of ore and waste (leached ore) degradation, using samples from the uranium exploitation site located in Caetité-Bahia, Brazil. In experiments in which the reaction of waste with water was tested, we found that the water had low pH and high levels of sulphates and aluminium. On the other hand, in experiments in which ore was tested, the water had a chemical composition comparable to natural water found in the region of Caetité. On the basis of our experiments, we suggest that waste resulting from sulphuric acid treatment can induce acidification and salinization of surface and ground water. For this reason proper storage of waste is imperative. As a tool to evaluate the risks, a geochemical inverse modelling approach was developed to estimate the water-mineral interaction involving the presence of toxic elements. We used a method earlier described by Scislewski and Zuddas 2010 (Geochim. Cosmochim. Acta 74, 6996-7007) in which the reactive surface area of mineral dissolution can be estimated. We found that the reactive surface area of rock parent minerals is not constant during time but varies according to several orders of magnitude in only two months of interaction. We propose that parent mineral heterogeneity and particularly, neogenic phase formation may explain the observed variation of the

  5. Risk evaluation in biotechnology of environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mazaheri Asadi, M.

    2003-01-01

    It is the Era of technology and many countries are adjusting their economy with it. The research on biotechnology is done with a logarithmic rate at different technologies such as pharmacy, agriculture, environment, food, oil, and etc. The relevant research would result in the production of new materials which are released into the environment. In many developed countries biotechnology is regarded as a firm base for economic development and without doubt plays a determined role in humane wealth and well-being, but this technology should be sustainable and controllable. The producer and consumer of biotechnology must think deeply about this matter and take into account the health and sustain ability of earth and the environment. Evaluation of ecological impacts of micro- organisms and manipulated genetically organism should be considered in all countries of the world and such an activities should be regulated and controlled as it was don in Canada under the supervision of Dept

  6. Literature Review on Modeling Cyber Networks and Evaluating Cyber Risks.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kelic, Andjelka; Campbell, Philip L

    2018-04-01

    The National Infrastructure Simulations and Analysis Center (NISAC) conducted a literature review on modeling cyber networks and evaluating cyber risks. The literature review explores where modeling is used in the cyber regime and ways that consequence and risk are evaluated. The relevant literature clusters in three different spaces: network security, cyber-physical, and mission assurance. In all approaches, some form of modeling is utilized at varying levels of detail, while the ability to understand consequence varies, as do interpretations of risk. This document summarizes the different literature viewpoints and explores their applicability to securing enterprise networks.

  7. The risks of liability for former mine operators: the implementation of a plan for preventing legal risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martinet, Y.

    2004-01-01

    Shutting down mines has 'mechanically' increased the risks of cave-ins. The local (communal and/or departmental) administrations responsible for supervising the situation do not necessarily have the means for managing shafts and tunnels. For this reason, two acts were passed in 1994 and 1999 to reform how mines are managed after shutdowns. Managing post-mining operations has spawned lawsuits against former operators, even though they shut down their mines in compliance with the laws and regulations in force at the time. By virtue of these two acts, administrative authorities are now trying to make the former operators fill in shafts and tunnels. Moreover, individuals often try to obtain compensation for the damages caused by shut-down mines. This situation causes uncertainty for various parties; and the legal settlements being proposed are not sufficiently clear. Information is provided for thinking about how to implement a 'legal risk prevention plan', which former mine operators should bear in mind. (author)

  8. Evaluating North Carolina Food Pantry Food Safety-Related Operating Procedures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chaifetz, Ashley; Chapman, Benjamin

    2015-11-01

    Almost one in seven American households were food insecure in 2012, experiencing difficulty in providing enough food for all family members due to a lack of resources. Food pantries assist a food-insecure population through emergency food provision, but there is a paucity of information on the food safety-related operating procedures used in the pantries. Food pantries operate in a variable regulatory landscape; in some jurisdictions, they are treated equivalent to restaurants, while in others, they operate outside of inspection regimes. By using a mixed methods approach to catalog the standard operating procedures related to food in 105 food pantries from 12 North Carolina counties, we evaluated their potential impact on food safety. Data collected through interviews with pantry managers were supplemented with observed food safety practices scored against a modified version of the North Carolina Food Establishment Inspection Report. Pantries partnered with organized food bank networks were compared with those that operated independently. In this exploratory research, additional comparisons were examined for pantries in metropolitan areas versus nonmetropolitan areas and pantries with managers who had received food safety training versus managers who had not. The results provide a snapshot of how North Carolina food pantries operate and document risk mitigation strategies for foodborne illness for the vulnerable populations they serve. Data analysis reveals gaps in food safety knowledge and practice, indicating that pantries would benefit from more effective food safety training, especially focusing on formalizing risk management strategies. In addition, new tools, procedures, or policy interventions might improve information actualization by food pantry personnel.

  9. Mycotoxins: Risks, regulations and European co-operation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Van Egmond Hans P.

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Mycotoxins and mycotoxicises have been problems of the past and the present, but scientific attention for mycotoxins did not start until the early 1960’s. Nowa­days, many mycotoxins are known, and their occurrence in food and animal feed may cause various adverse effects on human and animal health, including carcinogenic, hepatotoxic, immunotoxic, nephrotoxic, neurotoxic, oestrogenic and teratogenic effects. Some important mycotoxins include the aflatoxins, ochratoxin A, the fumonisins and the trichothecenes, and their significance is briefly described. To protect human and animal health, many countries have enacted specific regulations for mycotoxins in food and animal feed. Risk assessment is a major factor for scientific underpinning of regulations, but other factors such as availability of adequate sampling and analysis procedures also play an important a role in the establishment of mycotoxin regulations. In addition, socio-economic factors such as cost-benefit considerations, trade issues and sufficiency of food supply are equally important in the decision-taking process to come to meaningful regulations. Nowadays, more than 100 countries have formal mycotoxin regulations for food and feed. The mycotoxin regulations are the most stringent in the EU, where various organizations and pan-European networks contribute to combat the mycotoxin problem. It is to be expected that mycotoxins will stay with us in the future and climate change might have a negative influence in this respect. Several possibilities exist to mitigate the problems caused by mycotoxins. In particular prevention of mould growth and mycotoxin formation is key to the control of mycotoxins.

  10. Prior inpatient admission increases the risk of post-operative infection in hepatobiliary and pancreatic surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, Zachary M; Chidi, Alexis P; Goswami, Julie; Han, Katrina; Simmons, Richard L; Rosengart, Matthew R; Tsung, Allan

    2015-12-01

    Hepatobiliary and pancreatic (HPB) operations have a high incidence of post-operative nosocomial infections. The aim of the present study was to determine whether hospitalization up to 1 year before HPB surgery is associated with an increased risk of post-operative infection, surgical-site infection (SSI) and infection resistant to surgical chemoprophylaxis. A retrospective cohort study of patients undergoing HPB surgeries between January 2008 and June 2013 was conducted. A multivariable logistic regression model was used for controlling for potential confounders to determine the association between pre-operative admission and post-operative infection. Of the 1384 patients who met eligibility criteria, 127 (9.18%) experienced a post-operative infection. Pre-operative hospitalization was independently associated with an increased risk of a post-operative infection [adjusted odds ratio (aOR): 1.61, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.06-2.46] and SSI (aOR: 1.79, 95% CI: 1.07-2.97). Pre-operative hospitalization was also associated with an increased risk of post-operative infections resistant to standard pre-operative antibiotics (OR: 2.64, 95% CI: 1.06-6.59) and an increased risk of resistant SSIs (OR: 3.99, 95% CI: 1.25-12.73). Pre-operative hospitalization is associated with an increased incidence of post-operative infections, often with organisms that are resistant to surgical chemoprophylaxis. Patients hospitalized up to 1 year before HPB surgery may benefit from extended spectrum chemoprophylaxis. © 2015 International Hepato-Pancreato-Biliary Association.

  11. Hierarchic Analysis Method to Evaluate Rock Burst Risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ming Ji

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available In order to reasonably evaluate the risk of rock bursts in mines, the factors impacting rock bursts and the existing grading criterion on the risk of rock bursts were studied. By building a model of hierarchic analysis method, the natural factors, technology factors, and management factors that influence rock bursts were analyzed and researched, which determined the degree of each factor’s influence (i.e., weight and comprehensive index. Then the grade of rock burst risk was assessed. The results showed that the assessment level generated by the model accurately reflected the actual risk degree of rock bursts in mines. The model improved the maneuverability and practicability of existing evaluation criteria and also enhanced the accuracy and science of rock burst risk assessment.

  12. An approach to assessing risk in coalbed methane prospect evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vanorsdale, C.R.

    1991-01-01

    The economic evaluation of drilling prospects requires assessing the degree of risk involved and its impact on reserve estimates. In developed areas, risk can be determined in a fairly straightforward manner. In remote wildcat areas, risk can almost never be adequately identified or quantified. Between these extremes lie complex reservoirs -- reservoirs to heterogeneous that each well drilled could exhibit production characteristics unlike those of its neighbors. This paper illustrates the use of a risk assessment methodology in a case study of Fruitland coal prospects in the San Juan Basin of New Mexico. This approach could be applied to coalbed methane prospects or any unconventional or highly heterogeneous reservoir with appropriate modification. The utility of this approach is made apparent in a graphical analysis that relates reserves, rate of return and payout time for managerial or financial presentation. This graphical technique and the underlying risk assessment were used to aid a conservative management team in evaluating participation in a multi-well coalbed project

  13. Risk-Based Decision-Making and the Use of Operational Risk Management in Developing a Course of Action (COA) for the Joint Task Force (JTF)

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Faherty, Denis

    2003-01-01

    .... Operational Risk Management (ORM) is the process that assists the military commander in reducing or offsetting risk and helps him think through his options when faced with force employment and the requirement for risk control for mission success...

  14. Technology development for evaluation of operational quantities in radiation protection

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jang, Si Young; Lee, T. Y.; Kim, B. H.

    2003-03-01

    Korean government recently published a national regulation on the internal exposure monitoring and dose evaluation (internal dosimetry) based on the most recent ICRP recommendation 60 and subsequent publications, which supercede the former ICRP recommendation 26 and publication 30, on which the internal dosimetry practice in Korea had been based so far. Consequently, this project, according to the demand from both government and nuclear industry, had been launched to develop a user-friendly computer code on internal dosimetry adopting the most up to date ICRP biokinetic and dosimetric model to resolve the difficulties and problems faced to nuclear industry and to develop related technology. The reliability of this code, named as BiDAS, as a result of several benchmark calculations for self assurance appeared to be excellent comparing with the foreign computer code. This computer code is expected to be successfully utilized in nuclear industry and related fields in complying with the national regulation on internal dosimetry program started from late 2003. Reference low level gamma(γ) radiation field for calibration of environmental radiation(γ) monitor and reference neutron field for calibration of n monitoring equipment have been established and characterized. International cross comparison of these reference radiation fields have been performed and radiation response of various radiation monitoring instrument has been tested by using these reference radiation fields. A technology which can directly measure the radiation quality factor and tissue absorbed dose has been established to evaluate the neutron dose in terms of operational quantity in the unknown mixed n-γ radiation field. Spherical and cylindrical TEPC systems have been designed and manufactured and a portable TEPC system to measure the neutron quality and dose in the real work field has been developed and tested in accelerator laboratory

  15. New Metrics for Evaluating Technical Benefits and Risks of DGs Increasing Penetration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Akbari, Mohammad Amin; Aghaei, Jamshid; Barani, Mostafa

    2017-01-01

    and risks should be qualified and quantified. This paper introduces several probabilistic indices to evaluate the potential operational effects of increasing penetration of renewable DG units such as wind power and photovoltaic on rural distribution network with the aid of evaluating technical benefits...... and risks trade-offs. A probabilistic generation-load model is suggested to calculate these indices which combine a large number of possible operating conditions of renewable DG units with their probabilities. Temporal and annual indices of voltage profile and line flow related attributes such as Interest...... Voltage Rise (IVR), Risky Voltage Rise (RVR), Risky Voltage Down (RVD), Line Loss Reduction (LLR), Line Loss Increment (LLI) and Line overload flow (LOF) are introduced using probability and expected values of their occurrence. Also, to measure the overall interests and risks of installing DG, composite...

  16. Non-operative anti-caries agents and dental caries increment among adults at high caries risk: a retrospective cohort study

    OpenAIRE

    Chaffee, Benjamin W.; Cheng, Jing; Featherstone, John DB

    2015-01-01

    Background Consensus guidelines support non-operative preventives for dental caries management; yet, their use in practice is far from universal. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effectiveness of non-operative anti-caries agents in caries prevention among high caries risk adults at a university clinic where risk-based caries management is emphasized. Methods This retrospective observational study drew data from the electronic patient records of non-edentulous adult patients deeme...

  17. Business operations and decommissioning strategy for imperial college London research reactor 'Consort' - A financial risk management approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Franklin, S.J.; Gardner, D.; Mumford, J.; Lea, R.; Knight, J.

    2005-01-01

    Imperial College London (IC) operates commercially a 100 kW research reactor, and as site licensee is responsible for funding both operations and eventual decommissioning. With long lead times ahead urgent decisions on the future business options have had to be made in 2004/5 including choices on whether to move to early decommissioning, recognising the high costs entailed, or to pursue continuing operations involving life extension measures such as refuelling. To develop a coherent overall approach strategy a financial risk driven programme was initiated to help define a robust transparent business and termination case for the reactor. This study was carried out in collaboration with a UK firm of financial risk experts, PURE Risk Management Ltd (PURE), working within a dedicated IC London reactor project team. This work evaluated immediate closure options due to financial constraints or life limiting failures, and options for continuing operation extending to 2028. Decommissioning and clean up were reviewed. Bespoke financial models created single value cost outputs and ranges of probabilistic net present values (NPV) for decommissioning costs and financial provisions to meet those costs at various levels of risk acceptance and regulatory compliance. (author)

  18. Risk evaluation and monitoring in multiple sclerosis therapeutics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clanet, Michel C; Wolinsky, Jerry S; Ashton, Raymond J; Hartung, Hans-Peter; Reingold, Stephen C

    2014-09-01

    Risk for multiple sclerosis (MS) disease-modifying therapies (DMT) must be assessed on an ongoing basis. Early concerns regarding the first-approved DMTs for MS have been mitigated, but recently licensed therapies have been linked to possibly greater risks. The objective of this review is to discuss risk assessment in MS therapeutics based on an international workshop and comprehensive literature search and recommend strategies for risk assessment/monitoring. Assessment and perception of therapeutic risks vary between patients, doctors and regulators. Acceptability of risk depends on the magnitude of risk and the demonstrated clinical benefits of any agent. Safety signals must be distinguishable from chance occurrences in a clinical trial and in long-term use of medications. Post-marketing research is crucial for assessing longer-term safety in large patient cohorts. Reporting of adverse events is becoming more proactive, allowing more rapid identification of risks. Communication about therapeutic risks and their relationship to clinical benefit must involve patients in shared decision making. It is difficult to produce a general risk-assessment algorithm for all MS therapies. Specific algorithms are required for each DMT in every treated-patient population. New and evolving risks must be evaluated and communicated rapidly to allow patients and physicians to be well informed and able to share treatment decisions. © The Author(s) 2013.

  19. Food and Drug Administration Evaluation and Cigarette Smoking Risk Perceptions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaufman, Annette R.; Waters, Erika A.; Parascandola, Mark; Augustson, Erik M.; Bansal-Travers, Maansi; Hyland, Andrew; Cummings, K. Michael

    2011-01-01

    Objectives: To examine the relationship between a belief about Food and Drug Administration (FDA) safety evaluation of cigarettes and smoking risk perceptions. Methods: A nationally representative, random-digit-dialed telephone survey of 1046 adult current cigarette smokers. Results: Smokers reporting that the FDA does not evaluate cigarettes for…

  20. Are University Co-Operative Education Students Safe? Perceptions of Risk to Students on Work Terms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Newhook, Rebecca

    2016-01-01

    As students venture off campus for university-sponsored activities, are they at risk, given that universities are better able to control risk factors on campus than they can for their off-campus activities? Co-operative education is a formalized and longstanding academic program that often sees students spend upwards of a third of their time off…

  1. Evaluation of the operational characteristics of a CT ionization chamber

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maia, Ana F.; Caldas, Linda V.E.

    2006-01-01

    The most common ionization chamber used in computed tomography dosimetry is the 'pencil ionization chamber'. It is a special cylindrical dosimeter developed for attending computed tomography beams particularities. In this study, a Victoreen pencil ionization chamber was submitted to a set of tests for a detailed evaluation of its operational characteristics. Such as many kinds of detectors, especially field instruments, this ionization chamber had originally a preamplifier to keep it electrically more stable. In this study, the performance of the chamber was analyzed with the original preamplifier and after its removal, and the results were compared. The objective of the preamplifier removal was to enable connecting the chamber to other kinds of electrometers available in laboratories. The behavior of the pencil ionization chamber before and after the removal of the preamplifier was very similar, and the results obtained were always within the limits of international recommendations. The results obtained in both situations allow, if necessary, the preamplifier removal of the system without lack of precision in the measurements

  2. Sharing the Burden and Risk: An Operational Assessment of the Reserve Components in Operation Iraqi Freedom

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-10-01

    Assessment, Joint Test and Evaluation, 1 June 2004. E-3 Commander Intent Met” field. Fields left blank or comments such as “UNK” and “ clouds obscured...Report of the Military Compensation and Retirement Modernization Commission: Final Report, 29 January 2015. Miller, Drew, Col USAFR, HQ USAF A8FX

  3. Reliability and risk-based planning of operation and maintenance of offshore wind turbines

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Florian, Mihai; Berzonskis, Arvydas

    2016-01-01

    costly (and safe), and it is important to include in the reliability assessment the information obtained during operation (from condition monitoring and inspections) and the maintenance performed (incl. repairs and replacements). The paper presents a risk-based approach for optimal planning of Operation...

  4. Optimal, Risk-based Operation and Maintenance Planning for Offshore Wind Turbines

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    2008-01-01

    For offshore wind turbines costs to operation and maintenance are substantial. This paper describes a risk-based life-cycle approach for optimal planning of operation and maintenance. The approach is based on pre-posterior Bayesian decision theory. Deterioration mechanisms such as fatigue...

  5. Control of Risks Through the Use of Procedures: A Method for Evaluating the Change in Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Praino, Gregory T.; Sharit, Joseph

    2010-01-01

    This paper considers how procedures can be used to control risks faced by an organization and proposes a means of recognizing if a particular procedure reduces risk or contributes to the organization's exposure. The proposed method was developed out of the review of work documents and the governing procedures performed in the wake of the Columbia accident by NASA and the Space Shuttle prime contractor, United Space Alliance, LLC. A technique was needed to understand the rules, or procedural controls, in place at the time in the context of how important the role of each rule was. The proposed method assesses procedural risks, the residual risk associated with a hazard after a procedure's influence is accounted for, by considering each clause of a procedure as a unique procedural control that may be beneficial or harmful. For procedural risks with consequences severe enough to threaten the survival of the organization, the method measures the characteristics of each risk on a scale that is an alternative to the traditional consequence/likelihood couple. The dual benefits of the substitute scales are that they eliminate both the need to quantify a relationship between different consequence types and the need for the extensive history a probabilistic risk assessment would require. Control Value is used as an analog for the consequence, where the value of a rule is based on how well the control reduces the severity of the consequence when operating successfully. This value is composed of two parts: the inevitability of the consequence in the absence of the control, and the opportunity to intervene before the consequence is realized. High value controls will be ones where there is minimal need for intervention but maximum opportunity to actively prevent the outcome. Failure Likelihood is used as the substitute for the conventional likelihood of the outcome. For procedural controls, a failure is considered to be any non-malicious violation of the rule, whether intended or

  6. A Study on Safety and Risk Assessment of Dangerous Cargo Operations in Oil/Chemical Tankers

    OpenAIRE

    Cenk ŞAKAR; Yusuf ZORBA

    2017-01-01

    The safety and risk assessment of dangerous cargo operations in oil and chemical tankers is a necessary process to prevent possible accidents during these operations. Fire and explosion are the major accidents encountered in tanker operations. In this study, a model was constructed through the Fuzzy Bayes Network Method for the probabilistic relationships between the causes of fire and explosion accidents that could occur during the tank cleaning process. The study is composed of two stages. ...

  7. Determination operation Time Risk of Box Spinning Components-oe Spinning Machine

    OpenAIRE

    Slobodan Stefanovic

    2013-01-01

    Based on the constructed dependency diagram reliability of the exploitation operation time of each constituent components of the analyzed frame in the case of selected statistical distributions, areas of the operation exploitation and repair intervals are determined. This is done by determining the first inflection points. Based on these points analysis to determine the time of safety operation of frame components with allowable risk to the segmental linear function of the intensity of failur...

  8. [The operational role of the occupational health physician in the assessment and management of health risks related to night risks].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mucci, Nicola; Giorgi, Gabriele; Gonnelli, Irene Margherita; Garbarino, Sergio; Cupelli, Vincenzo; Arcangelil, Giulio

    2016-01-01

    The operational role of the occupational health physician in the assessment and management of health risks related to night work. Night work, in the last 30-40 years, has been extended to almost all areas of employment. The potential effects on workers' health--related to the disruption of circadian rhythms--are now well defined and studied in the Literature. All issues about the protection of safety and health for night workers are governed by the Italian Legislative Decree no. 66/2003 and subsequent amendments. The management of night work hasn't been included into the main Law on Occupational Safety and Health (Italian Legislative Decree no. 81/2008 and subsequent amendments) and a coordination between the two disciplines is desirable. The occupational health physician, as a global consultant for the protection of all health issues into a company, has to evaluate the potential effects of night work on health, both individually and as a group of workers. In this way, the physician may use either traditional tools (history, physical examination, blood tests) or innovative tools (questionnaires, health promotion programs, interventions on shift schedules). In the management of night work is useful to employ schedules that respect both psychophysical integrity and social welfare of workers and the needs of the production. The occupational health physician plays a significant role in information and training of workers, both individually and as a group of workers, and in the organization of health promotion programs (whit a voluntary participation by the workers).

  9. Seismic risk evaluation for high voltage air insulated substations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Camensig, Carlo; Bresesti, Luca; Clementel, Stefano; Salvetti, Maurizio

    1997-01-01

    This paper describes the results of the analytical and experimental activities performed by ISMES for the evaluation of the structural reliability of electrical substations with respect to seismic events. In the following, the reference station is described along with the methods used to define the site seismic input, the analytical and experimental evaluation of the components' fragility curves and the whole station seismic risk evaluation

  10. RISK ANALYSIS AND EVALUATION FOR CRITICAL LOGISTICAL INFRASTRUCTURE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sascha Düerkop

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Logistical infrastructure builds the backbone of an economy. Without an effective logistical infrastructure in place, the supply for both enterprises and consumers might not be met. But even a high-quality logistical infrastructure can be threatened by risks. Thus, it is important to identify, analyse, and evaluate risks for logistical infrastructure that might threaten logistical processes. Only if those risks are known and their impact estimated, decision makers can implement counteractive measures to reduce risks. In this article, we develop a network-based approach that allows for the evaluation of risks and their consequences onto the logistical network. We will demonstrate the relevance of this approach by applying it to the logistics network of the central German state of Hesse. Even though transport data is extensively tracked and recorded nowadays, typical daily risks, like accidents on a motorway, and extraordinary risks, like a bridge at risk to collapse, terrorist attacks or climate-related catastrophes, are not systematically anticipated. Several studies unveiled recently that the overall impact for an economy of possible failures of single nodes and/or edges in a network are not calculated, and particularly critical edges are not identified in advance. We address this information gap by a method that helps to identify and quantify risks in a given network. To reach this objective, we define a mathematical optimization model that quantifies the current “risk-related costs” of the overall network and quantify the risk by investigating the change of the overall costs in the case a risk is realized.

  11. Environmental issues and process risks for operation of carbon capture plant

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lajnert Radosław

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The scope of this publication is a presentation of environmental issues and process risks connected with operation an installation for carbon capture from waste gas. General technological assumptions, typical for demonstration plant for carbon capture from waste gas (DCCP with application of two different solutions – 30% water solution of monoethanoloamine (MEA and water solution with 30% AMP (2-amino-2-methyl-1-propanol and 10% piperazine have been described. The concept of DCCP installation was made for Łaziska Power Plant in Łaziska Górne owned by TAURON Wytwarzanie S.A. Main hazardous substances, typical for such installation, which can be dangerous for human life and health or for the environment have been presented. Pollution emission to the air, noise emission, waste water and solid waste management have been described. The environmental impact of the released substances has been stated. Reference to emission standards specified in regulations for considered substances has been done. Principles of risk analysis have been presented and main hazards in carbon dioxide absorption node and regeneration node have been evaluated.

  12. Environmental issues and process risks for operation of carbon capture plant

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lajnert, Radosław; Nowak, Martyna; Telenga-Kopyczyńska, Jolanta

    2018-01-01

    The scope of this publication is a presentation of environmental issues and process risks connected with operation an installation for carbon capture from waste gas. General technological assumptions, typical for demonstration plant for carbon capture from waste gas (DCCP) with application of two different solutions - 30% water solution of monoethanoloamine (MEA) and water solution with 30% AMP (2-amino-2-methyl-1-propanol) and 10% piperazine have been described. The concept of DCCP installation was made for Łaziska Power Plant in Łaziska Górne owned by TAURON Wytwarzanie S.A. Main hazardous substances, typical for such installation, which can be dangerous for human life and health or for the environment have been presented. Pollution emission to the air, noise emission, waste water and solid waste management have been described. The environmental impact of the released substances has been stated. Reference to emission standards specified in regulations for considered substances has been done. Principles of risk analysis have been presented and main hazards in carbon dioxide absorption node and regeneration node have been evaluated.

  13. A Proposal of Operational Risk Management Method Using FMEA for Drug Manufacturing Computerized System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takahashi, Masakazu; Nanba, Reiji; Fukue, Yoshinori

    This paper proposes operational Risk Management (RM) method using Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) for drug manufacturing computerlized system (DMCS). The quality of drug must not be influenced by failures and operational mistakes of DMCS. To avoid such situation, DMCS has to be conducted enough risk assessment and taken precautions. We propose operational RM method using FMEA for DMCS. To propose the method, we gathered and compared the FMEA results of DMCS, and develop a list that contains failure modes, failures and countermeasures. To apply this list, we can conduct RM in design phase, find failures, and conduct countermeasures efficiently. Additionally, we can find some failures that have not been found yet.

  14. Risk averse optimal operation of a virtual power plant using two stage stochastic programming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tajeddini, Mohammad Amin; Rahimi-Kian, Ashkan; Soroudi, Alireza

    2014-01-01

    VPP (Virtual Power Plant) is defined as a cluster of energy conversion/storage units which are centrally operated in order to improve the technical and economic performance. This paper addresses the optimal operation of a VPP considering the risk factors affecting its daily operation profits. The optimal operation is modelled in both day ahead and balancing markets as a two-stage stochastic mixed integer linear programming in order to maximize a GenCo (generation companies) expected profit. Furthermore, the CVaR (Conditional Value at Risk) is used as a risk measure technique in order to control the risk of low profit scenarios. The uncertain parameters, including the PV power output, wind power output and day-ahead market prices are modelled through scenarios. The proposed model is successfully applied to a real case study to show its applicability and the results are presented and thoroughly discussed. - Highlights: • Virtual power plant modelling considering a set of energy generating and conversion units. • Uncertainty modelling using two stage stochastic programming technique. • Risk modelling using conditional value at risk. • Flexible operation of renewable energy resources. • Electricity price uncertainty in day ahead energy markets

  15. Risk evaluation of medical and industrial radiation devices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jones, E.D.; Cunningham, R.E.; Rathbun, P.A.

    1994-03-01

    In 1991, the NRC, Division of Industrial and Medical Nuclear Safety, began a program to evaluate the use of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) in regulating medical devices. This program represents an initial step in an overall plant to evaluate the use of PRA in regulating the use of nuclear by-product materials. The NRC envisioned that the use of risk analysis techniques could assist staff in ensuring that the regulatory approach was standardized, understandable, and effective. Traditional methods of assessing risk in nuclear power plants may be inappropriate to use in assessing the use of by-product devices. The approaches used in assessing nuclear reactor risks are equipment-oriented. Secondary attention is paid to the human component, for the most part after critical system failure events have been identified. This paper describes the risk methodology developed by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), initially intended to assess risks associated with the use of the Gamma Knife, a gamma stereotactic radiosurgical device. For relatively new medical devices such as the Gamma Knife, the challenge is to perform a risk analysis with very little quantitative data but with an important human factor component. The method described below provides a basic approach for identifying the most likely risk contributors and evaluating their relative importance. The risk analysis approach developed for the Gamma Knife and described in this paper should be applicable to a broader class of devices in which the human interaction with the device is a prominent factor. In this sense, the method could be a prototypical model of nuclear medical or industrial device risk analysis

  16. BARC-risk monitor- a tool for operational safety assessment in nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vinod, Gopika; Saraf, R.K.; Babar, A.K.; Hadap, Nikhil

    2000-12-01

    Probabilistic safety assessment has become a key tool as on today to identify and understand nuclear power plant vulnerabilities. As a result of the availability of these PSA studies, there is a desire to use them to enhance plant safety and to operate the nuclear stations in the most efficient manner. Risk monitor is a PC based tool, which computes the real time safety level and assists plant personnel to manage day-to-day activities. Risk monitor is a PC based user friendly software tool used for modification and re-analysis of a nuclear power plant. Operation of risk monitor is based on PSA methods for assisting in day to day applications. Risk monitoring programs can assess the risk profile and are used to optimise the operation of nuclear power plants with respect to a minimum risk level over the operating time. This report presents the background activities of risk monitor, its application areas and also gives the status of such tools in international scenarios. The software is based on the PSA model of Kaiga generating station and would be applicable to similar design configuration. (author)

  17. PRESSCA: A regional operative Early Warning System for landslides risk scenario assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ponziani, Francesco; Stelluti, Marco; Berni, Nicola; Brocca, Luca; Moramarco, Tommaso

    2013-04-01

    The Italian national alert system for the hydraulic and hydrogeological risk is ensured by the National Civil Protection Department, through the "Functional Centres" Network, together with scientific/technical Support Centres, named "Competence Centres". The role of the Functional Centres is to alert regional/national civil protection network, to manage the prediction and the monitoring phases, thus ensuring the flow of data for the management of the emergency. The Umbria regional alerting procedure is based on three increasing warning levels of criticality for 6 sub-areas (~1200 km²). Specifically, for each duration (from 1 to 48 hours), three criticality levels are assigned to the rainfall values corresponding to a recurrence interval of 2, 5, and 10 years. In order to improve confidence on the daily work for hydrogeological risk assessment and management, a simple and operational early warning system for the prediction of shallow landslide triggering on regional scale was implemented. The system is primarily based on rainfall thresholds, which represent the main element of evaluation for the early-warning procedures of the Italian Civil Protection system. Following previous studies highlighting that soil moisture conditions play a key role on landslide triggering, a continuous physically-based soil water balance model was implemented for the estimation of soil moisture conditions over the whole regional territory. In fact, a decreasing trend between the cumulated rainfall values over 24, 36 and 48 hours and the soil moisture conditions prior to past landslide events was observed. This trend provides an easy-to-use tool to dynamically adjust the operational rainfall thresholds with the soil moisture conditions simulated by the soil water balance model prior to rainfall events. The application of this procedure allowed decreasing the uncertainties tied to the application of the rainfall thresholds only. The system is actually operational in real-time and it was

  18. Safety indicators as a tool for operational safety evaluation of nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Araujo, Jefferson Borges; Melo, Paulo Fernando Ferreira Frutuoso e; Schirru, Roberto

    2009-01-01

    Performance indicators have found a wide use in the conventional and nuclear industries. For the conventional industry, the goal is to optimize production, reducing loss of time with accidents, human error and equipment downtimes. In the nuclear industry, nuclear safety is an additional goal. This paper presents a general methodology to the establishment, selection and use of safety indicators for a two loop PWR plant, as Angra 1. The use of performance indicators is not new. The NRC has its own methodology and the IAEA presents methodology suggestions, but there is no detailed documentation about indicators selection, criteria and bases used. Additionally, only the NRC methodology performs a limited integrated evaluation. The study performed identifies areas considered critical for the plant operational safety. For each of these areas, strategic sub-areas are defined. For each strategic sub-area, specific safety indicators are defined. These proposed Safety Indicators are based on the contribution to risk considering a quantitative risk analysis. For each safety indicator, a goal, a bounded interval and proper bases are developed, to allow for a clear and comprehensive individual behavior evaluation. On the establishment of the intervals and boundaries, a probabilistic safety study, operational experience, international and national standards and technical specifications were used. Additionally, an integrated evaluation of the indicators, using expert systems, was done to obtain an overview of the plant general safety. This evaluation uses well-defined and clear rules and weights for each indicator to be considered. These rules were implemented by means of a computational language, on a friendly interface, so that it is possible to obtain a quick response about operational safety. This methodology can be used to identify situations where the plant safety is challenged, by giving a general overview of the plant operational condition. Additionally, this study can

  19. Loss distribution approach for operational risk capital modelling under Basel II: Combining different data sources for risk estimation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pavel V. Shevchenko

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available The management of operational risk in the banking industry has undergone significant changes over the last decade due to substantial changes in operational risk environment. Globalization, deregulation, the use of complex financial products and changes in information technology have resulted in exposure to new risks very different from market and credit risks. In response, Basel Committee for banking Supervision has developed a regulatory framework, referred to as Basel II, that introduced operational risk category and corresponding capital requirements. Over the past five years, major banks in most parts of the world have received accreditation under the Basel II Advanced Measurement Approach (AMA by adopting the loss distribution approach (LDA despite there being a number of unresolved methodological challenges in its implementation. Different approaches and methods are still under hot debate. In this paper, we review methods proposed in the literature for combining different data sources (internal data, external data and scenario analysis which is one of the regulatory requirement for AMA.

  20. Evaluation of severe accident risks, Grand Gulf, Unit 1: Appendices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brown, T.D.; Breeding, R.J.; Jow, H.N.; Higgins, S.J.; Shiver, A.W.; Helton, J.C.; Amos, C.N.

    1990-12-01

    In support of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission's (NRC's) assessment of the risk from severe accidents at commercial nuclear power plants in the US report in NUREG-1150, the Severe Accident Risk Reduction Program (SARRP) has completed a revised calculation of the risk to the general public from severe accidents at the Grand Gulf Nuclear Station, Unit 1. This power plant, located in Port Gibson, Mississippi, is operated by the System Energy Resources, Inc. (SERI). The emphasis in this risk analysis was not on determining a ''so-called'' point estimate of risk. Rather, it was to determine the distribution of risk, and to discover the uncertainties that account for the breadth of this distribution. Off-site risk initiated by events internal to the power plant was assessed. This document provides Appendices A through E for this report. Topics included are, respectively: supporting information for the accident progression analysis; supporting information for the source term analysis; supporting information for the consequence analysis; risk results; and sampling information

  1. Acceptability of the Risk Importance Measures in Evaluation of a Change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dimitrijevic, V. B.; Chapman, J. R.

    1996-01-01

    In this paper, the authors discuss insights gained from evaluating changes to plant design and operational practices. Evaluation of a change is performed in order to provide an answer to two fundamental questions: what is the impact and is the impact acceptable? In order to determine 'the acceptability of an impact', the risk-based technologies today provide various ranking schemes. They are based on the existing IPE studies or PSA models and use of standard risk importance measures. In 'ad hoc' applications of risk importance measures, the specific nature of the analyzed change is often neglected. This paper attempts to capture the most common problems in the application of importance measures, and defines the limits of this application. The authors' position is that the use of risk importance information as the sole basis to accept or reject with ranking results, after the basis for the rank is meaningfully established. (author)

  2. Operator model-based design and evaluation of advanced systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schryver, J.C.

    1988-01-01

    A multi-level operator modeling approach is recommended to provide broad support for the integrated design of advanced control and protection systems for new nuclear power plants. Preliminary design should address the symbiosis of automated systems and human operator by giving careful attention to the roles assigned to these two system elements. A conceptual model of the operator role is developed in the context of a command control-communication problem. According to this approach, joint responsibility can be realized in at least two ways: sharing or allocation. The inherent stabilities of different regions of the operator role space are considered

  3. Stochastic evaluation of tsunami inundation and quantitative estimating tsunami risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fukutani, Yo; Anawat, Suppasri; Abe, Yoshi; Imamura, Fumihiko

    2014-01-01

    We performed a stochastic evaluation of tsunami inundation by using results of stochastic tsunami hazard assessment at the Soma port in the Tohoku coastal area. Eleven fault zones along the Japan trench were selected as earthquake faults generating tsunamis. The results show that estimated inundation area of return period about 1200 years had good agreement with that in the 2011 Tohoku earthquake. In addition, we evaluated quantitatively tsunami risk for four types of building; a reinforced concrete, a steel, a brick and a wood at the Soma port by combining the results of inundation assessment and tsunami fragility assessment. The results of quantitative estimating risk would reflect properly vulnerability of the buildings, that the wood building has high risk and the reinforced concrete building has low risk. (author)

  4. Evaluation of AECB-1119, risk of energy production

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1978-01-01

    The Inhaber report, 'Risk of Energy Production', is evaluated based on how the conclusions of the report match its objectives, the methodology used to reach the report's conclusions, and the presentation of the report. The authors recommend that a second volume containing the pertinent data used in the report should be published; and that total risks should be calculated ignoring material acquisition, construction and transportation risks, using the actual energy output of the various systems without imposing a backup energy supply, and comparing systems in such a way that death, injury and disease risks may be considered separately. They propose that the Atomic Energy Control Board should show how the report results relate to nuclear safety, and that the AECB should clarify the criteria for evaluating the small probability of a catastrophic nuclear accident. The response of the author of AECB--1119 is given in a separate section

  5. Assessment, Planning, and Execution Considerations for Conjunction Risk Assessment and Mitigation Operations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frigm, Ryan C.; Levi, Joshua A.; Mantziaras, Dimitrios C.

    2010-01-01

    An operational Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis (CARA) concept is the real-time process of assessing risk posed by close approaches and reacting to those risks if necessary. The most effective way to completely mitigate conjunction risk is to perform an avoidance maneuver. The NASA Goddard Space Flight Center has implemented a routine CARA process since 2005. Over this period, considerable experience has been gained and many lessons have been learned. This paper identifies and presents these experiences as general concepts in the description of the Conjunction Assessment, Flight Dynamics, and Flight Operations methodologies and processes. These general concepts will be tied together and will be exemplified through a case study of an actual high risk conjunction event for the Aura mission.

  6. Qualitative and quantitative physical land evaluation : an operational approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lanen, van H.A.J.

    1991-01-01

    Physical land evaluation methods are crucial for evaluating potentials and constraints of land for intended land use. Physical resources, such as soil, climate, hydrology, and topography are evaluated. Different technical procedures are used for physical land evaluation ranging from simple

  7. The effect of stressed economic conditions on operational risk loss distributions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ja'nel Esterhuysen

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available The depth and duration of the credit crisis has highlighted a number of problems in modern finance. Banks have been accused of excessive risk taking, rating agencies of severe conflicts of interest, central banks of neglecting the inflation of asset price bubbles and national supervisors of lax regulatory controls. Credit and market losses have been considerable. Operational losses have also surged as surviving corporates merge or acquire less fortunate ones without the requisite controls. Furthermore, as more jobs get made redundant it is believed that people are getting forced to play their hand to get involved in internal fraud as their sources of income has dried up drastically and stealing from the institution seems to be their last resort.. The main objective of this paper is to establish if there has been a changed in the nature of operational risk with regards to the number of operational losses as well as their impact pre and during the crisis. The way in which operational losses have been affected will be presented and a comparison will be made between operational loss characteristics pre and during the crisis. Some of the main findings of this paper were that operational losses shown little change in frequency, but shown a significant increase in severity, meaning that their financial impact has been more severe during the crisis.  Therefore it is quite safe to say that the financial crisis most defiantly had an impact on operational risk as the impact of operational losses became much more severe

  8. Evaluating intergenerational risks: Probabillity adjusted rank-discounted utilitarianism

    OpenAIRE

    Asheim, Geir B.; Zuber, Stéphane

    2015-01-01

    Climate policies have stochastic consequences that involve a great number of generations. This calls for evaluating social risk (what kind of societies will future people be born into) rather than individual risk (what will happen to people during their own lifetimes). As a response we propose and axiomatize probability adjusted rank-discounted critical-level generalized utilitarianism (PARDCLU), through a key axiom that requires that the social welfare order both be ethical and satisfy first...

  9. Risk-based evaluation of Allowed Outage Times (AOTs) considering risk of shutdown

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mankamo, T.; Kim, I.S.; Samanta, P.K.

    1992-01-01

    When safety systems fail during power operation, Technical Specifications (TS) usually limit the repair within Allowed Outage Time (AOT). If the repair cannot be completed within the AOT, or no AOT is allowed, the plant is required to be shut down for the repair. However, if the capability to remove decay heat is degraded, shutting down the plant with the need to operate the affected decay-heat removal systems may impose a substantial risk compared to continued power operation over a usual repair time. Thus, defining a proper AOT in such situations can be considered as a risk-comparison between the repair in frill power state with a temporarily increased level of risk, and the altemative of shutting down the plant for the repair in zero power state with a specific associated risk. The methodology of the risk-comparison approach, with a due consideration of the shutdown risk, has been further developed and applied to the AOT considerations of residual heat removal and standby service water systems of a boiling water reactor (BWR) plant. Based on the completed work, several improvements to the TS requirements for the systems studied can be suggested

  10. Accident sequences evaluation using SFATs for low power and shutdown operation of pressurized heavy water reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Chansoo; Chung, Chang-Hyun; Yang, Huichang

    2004-01-01

    To maintain the level of defense-in-depth safety of Pressurized Heavy Water Reactor (PHWR) during LP/SD operation, the qualitative risk evaluation methods such as Safety Function Assessment Trees (SFATs) are required. Therefore SFATs are suggested to assess and manage the PHWR safety in LP/SD. Before this study, safety functions of PHWR were classified into 7 groups; Reactivity Control, Core Cooling, Secondary Heat Removal, Primary Heat Transport Inventory, Essential Electrical Power, Cooling Water, and Containment Integrity. The SFATs for PHWR LP/SD operations were developed along with the Plant Outage Status (POS) variation, and totally 38 SFATs were developed for Wolsung Unit 2. For the verification of SFATs logics developed, top 5 accident sequences those contribute the CDF of PHWR were selected, and plant safety status were evaluated for those accident sequences. Accident sequences such as DCC-4 (Dual Control Computer Failure), CL4-16 (Total Loss of Class IV Power), and FWPV-11 (Loss of Feedwater Supply to SG due to Failure of Pumps/Values) were included. In this research the evaluation of plant safety status by accident sequences using SFATs and the verification of the SFATs were performed. Through the verification of SFAT logics, the enhancements to the internal logics of the SFATs were made, and the dependencies between safety systems and support systems were considered. It is expected the defense-in-depth evaluation model of PHW just as SFATs can be utilized in the configuration risk management program (CRMP) development and improve technical specifications development for Korean PHWRs. (author)

  11. Risk Management Technique for design and operation of facilities and equipment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fedor, O. H.; Parsons, W. N.; Coutinho, J. De S.

    1975-01-01

    The Risk Management System collects information from engineering, operating, and management personnel to identify potentially hazardous conditions. This information is used in risk analysis, problem resolution, and contingency planning. The resulting hazard accountability system enables management to monitor all identified hazards. Data from this system are examined in project reviews so that management can decide to eliminate or accept these risks. This technique is particularly effective in improving the management of risks in large, complex, high-energy facilities. These improvements are needed for increased cooperation among industry, regulatory agencies, and the public.

  12. The usefulness of myocardial SPECT for the preoperative cardiac risk evaluation in noncardiac surgery

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lim, Seok Tae; Lee, Dong Soo; Kang, Won Jon; Chung, June Key; Lee, Myung Chul

    1999-01-01

    We investigated whether myocardial SPECT had additional usefulness to clinical, functional or surgical indices for the preoperative evaluation of cardiac risks in noncardiac surgery. 118 patients ( M: F=66: 52, 62.7±10.5 years) were studied retrospectively. Eighteen underwent vascular surgeries and 100 nonvascular surgeries. Rest Tl-201/ stress Tc-99m-MIBI SPECT was performed before operation and cardiac events (hard event: cardiac death and myocardial infarction; soft event: ischemic ECG change, congestive heat failure and unstable angina) were surveyed through perioperative periods (14.6±5.6 days). Clinical risk indices, functional capacity, surgery procedures and SPECT findings were tested for their predictive values of perioperative cardiac events. Peri-operative cardiac events occurred in 25 patients (3 hard events and 22 soft events). Clinical risk indices, surgical procedure risks and SPECT findings but functional capacity were predictive of cardiac events. Reversible perfusion decrease was a better predictor than persistent decrease. Multivariate analysis sorted out surgical procedure risk (p=0.0018) and SPECT findings (p=0.0001) as significant risk factors. SPECT could re-stratify perioperative cardiac risks in patients ranked with surgical procedures. We conclude that myocardial SPECT provides additional predictive value to surgical type risks as well as clinical indexes or functional capacity for the prediction of preoperative cardiac events in noncardiac surgery

  13. Evaluating the Success of Peace Operations | Garb | Scientia ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Questioning and investigating the success of peace operations is not a new research activity. However, there are still many open questions, because the surveys do not show the same results. One of the crucial points in the analysis of the success of peace operations is a definition of such success. In this article, firstly, ...

  14. The 'PROCESO' index: a new methodology for the evaluation of operational safety in the chemical industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marono, M.; Pena, J.A.; Santamaria, J.

    2006-01-01

    The acknowledgement of industrial installations as complex systems in the early 1980s outstands as a milestone in the path to operational safety. Process plants are social-technical complex systems of a dynamic nature, whose properties depend not only on their components, but also on the inter-relations among them. A comprehensive assessment of operational safety requires a systemic approach, i.e. an integrated framework that includes all the relevant factors influencing safety. Risk analysis methodologies and safety management systems head the list of methods that point in this direction, but they normally require important plant resources. As a consequence, their use is frequently restricted to especially dangerous processes often driven by compliance with legal requirements. In this work a new safety index for the chemical industry, termed the 'Proceso' Index (standing for the Spanish terms for PROCedure for the Evaluation of Operational Safety), has been developed. PROCESO is based on the principles of systems theory, has a tree-like structure and considers 25 areas to guide the review of plant safety. The method uses indicators whose respective weight values have been obtained via an expert judgement technique. This paper describes the steps followed to develop this new Operational Safety Index, explains its structure and illustrates its application to process plants

  15. Risk evaluation and mitigation strategies: a focus on belatacept.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sam, Teena; Gabardi, Steven; Tichy, Eric M

    2013-03-01

    To review the elements and components of the risk evaluation and mitigation strategies (REMS) for the costimulation blocker belatacept and associated implications for health care providers working with transplant recipients. The MEDLINE and EMBASE databases (January 1990 to March 2012) were searched by using risk evaluation and mitigation strategies, REMS, belatacept, and organ transplant as search terms (individual organs were also searched). Retrieved articles were supplemented with analysis of information obtained from the Federal Register, the Food and Drug Administration, and the manufacturer of belatacept. REMS are risk-management strategies implemented to ensure that a product's benefits outweigh its known safety risks. Although belatacept offers a novel strategy in maintenance immunosuppression and was associated with superior renal function compared with cyclosporine in phase 2 and 3 trials, belatacept is also associated with increased risk of posttransplant lymphoproliferative disorder and central nervous system infections. The Food and Drug Administration required development of a REMS program as part of belatacept's approval process to ensure safe and appropriate use of the medication and optimization of its risk-benefit profile. Elements of the belatacept REMS include a medication guide that must be dispensed with each infusion and a communication plan. In the management of a complex population of patients, it is essential that those who care for transplant recipients, and patients, recognize the implications of potential and known risks of belatacept. The REMS program aims to facilitate careful selection and education of patients and vigilant monitoring.

  16. Societal risk approach to safeguards design and evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Murphey, W.M.; Sherr, T.S.; Bennett, C.A.

    1975-01-01

    A comprehensive rationale for safeguards design and evaluation, and a framework for continuing systematic assessment of the system's effectiveness and efficient allocation of available safeguards resources for balanced protection, were developed. The societal risk approach employed considers the likelihood of successful destructive acts involving nuclear materials or facilities and the magnitude of the effects on society. The safeguards problem is described in terms of events affecting societal risk and adversary actions. Structure of the safeguards system and the evaluation of its adequacy are discussed. Adversary characteristics are also discussed

  17. Test and evaluation plan for Project W-314 tank farm restoration and safe operations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hays, W.H.

    1998-01-01

    The ''Tank Farm Restoration and Safe Operations'' (TFRSO), Project W-314 will restore and/or upgrade existing Hanford Tank Farm facilities and systems to ensure that the Tank Farm infrastructure will be able to support near term TWRS Privatization's waste feed delivery and disposal system and continue safe management of tank waste. The capital improvements provided by this project will increase the margin of safety for Tank Farms operations, and will aid in aligning affected Tank Farm systems with compliance requirements from applicable state, Federal, and local regulations. Secondary benefits will be realized subsequent to project completion in the form of reduced equipment down-time, reduced health and safety risks to workers, reduced operating and maintenance costs, and minimization of radioactive and/or hazardous material releases to the environment. The original regulatory (e.g., Executive Orders, WACS, CFRS, permit requirements, required engineering standards, etc.) and institutional (e.g., DOE Orders, Hanford procedures, etc.) requirements for Project W-314 were extracted from the TWRS S/RIDs during the development of the Functions and Requirements (F and Rs). The entire family of requirements were then validated for TWRS and Project W-314. This information was contained in the RDD-100 database and used to establish the original CDR. The Project Hanford Management Contract (PHMC) team recognizes that safety, quality, and cost effectiveness in the Test and Evaluation (T and E) program is achieved through a planned systematic approach to T and E activities. It is to this end that the Test and Evaluation Plan (TEP) is created. The TEP for the TFRSO Project, was developed based on the guidance in HNF-IP-0842, and the Good Practice Guide GPG-FM-005, ''Test and Evaluation,'' which is derived from DOE Order 430.1, ''Life Cycle Asset Management.'' It describes the Test and Evaluation program for the TFRSO project starting with the definitive design phase and ending

  18. Application of a hazard and operability study method to hazard evaluation of a chemical unit of the power station.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Habibi, E; Zare, M; Barkhordari, A; Mirmohammadi, Sj; Halvani, Ghh

    2008-12-28

    The aim of this study was to identify the hazards, evaluate their risk factors and determine the measure for promotion of the process and reduction of accidents in the chemical unit of the power station. In this case and qualitative study, HAZOP technique was used to recognize the hazards and problems of operations on the chemical section at power station. Totally, 126 deviations were documented with various causes and consequences. Ranking and evaluation of identified risks indicate that the majority of deviations were categorized as "acceptable" and less than half of that were "unacceptable". The highest calculated risk level (1B) related to both the interruption of acid entry to the discharge pumps and an increased density of the acid. About 27% of the deviations had the lowest risk level (4B). The identification of hazards by HAZOP indicates that it could, systemically, assess and criticize the process of consumption or production of acid and alkali in the chemical unit of power plant.

  19. Screening and prioritisation of chemical risks from metal mining operations, identifying exposure media of concern.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pan, Jilang; Oates, Christopher J; Ihlenfeld, Christian; Plant, Jane A; Voulvoulis, Nikolaos

    2010-04-01

    Metals have been central to the development of human civilisation from the Bronze Age to modern times, although in the past, metal mining and smelting have been the cause of serious environmental pollution with the potential to harm human health. Despite problems from artisanal mining in some developing countries, modern mining to Western standards now uses the best available mining technology combined with environmental monitoring, mitigation and remediation measures to limit emissions to the environment. This paper develops risk screening and prioritisation methods previously used for contaminated land on military and civilian sites and engineering systems for the analysis and prioritisation of chemical risks from modern metal mining operations. It uses hierarchical holographic modelling and multi-criteria decision making to analyse and prioritise the risks from potentially hazardous inorganic chemical substances released by mining operations. A case study of an active platinum group metals mine in South Africa is used to demonstrate the potential of the method. This risk-based methodology for identifying, filtering and ranking mining-related environmental and human health risks can be used to identify exposure media of greatest concern to inform risk management. It also provides a practical decision-making tool for mine acquisition and helps to communicate risk to all members of mining operation teams.

  20. Prolonged Operative Duration Increases Risk of Surgical Site Infections: A Systematic Review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, Hang; Chen, Brian Po-Han; Soleas, Ireena M; Ferko, Nicole C; Cameron, Chris G; Hinoul, Piet

    The incidence of surgical site infection (SSI) across surgical procedures, specialties, and conditions is reported to vary from 0.1% to 50%. Operative duration is often cited as an independent and potentially modifiable risk factor for SSI. The objective of this systematic review was to provide an in-depth understanding of the relation between operating time and SSI. This review included 81 prospective and retrospective studies. Along with study design, likelihood of SSI, mean operative times, time thresholds, effect measures, confidence intervals, and p values were extracted. Three meta-analyses were conducted, whereby odds ratios were pooled by hourly operative time thresholds, increments of increasing operative time, and surgical specialty. Pooled analyses demonstrated that the association between extended operative time and SSI typically remained statistically significant, with close to twice the likelihood of SSI observed across various time thresholds. The likelihood of SSI increased with increasing time increments; for example, a 13%, 17%, and 37% increased likelihood for every 15 min, 30 min, and 60 min of surgery, respectively. On average, across various procedures, the mean operative time was approximately 30 min longer in patients with SSIs compared with those patients without. Prolonged operative time can increase the risk of SSI. Given the importance of SSIs on patient outcomes and health care economics, hospitals should focus efforts to reduce operative time.

  1. Evaluating the operations capability of Freedom's Data Management System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sowizral, Henry A.

    1990-01-01

    Three areas of Data Management System (DMS) performance are examined: raw processor speed, the subjective speed of the Lynx OS X-Window system, and the operational capacity of the Runtime Object Database (RODB). It is concluded that the proposed processor will operate at its specified rate of speed and that the X-Window system operates within users' subjective needs. It is also concluded that the RODB cannot provide the required level of service, even with a two-order of magnitude (100 fold) improvement in speed.

  2. KNOWLEDGE AND LEARNING IN TERMS OF OPERATIONAL RISK MANAGEMENT IN THE FINANCIAL AND BANKING SYSTEMS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Radoica Luburic

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper is a part of the author`s wider research that examines the impact of operational risks on the functioning of financial organisations, with particular reference to central banks. The research clearly demonstrates the importance of the human factor in the timely identification and efficient management of operational risks. People are the basic strength of organisations; they are the source of innovation, as well as of good relations with customers and other interested parties. The paper highlights the illusion that people can be successful in improving products or providing better services without improving themselves as well. Any assessment of the impact of the human factor on the appearance, identification, and efficient management of operational risks is a very complex process. This has to be an ongoing process that develops through the development of the organisation, staff competences and motivation, as well as organisational culture. In particular, emphasis must be placed on the importance of learning and knowledge in both the recognition and the efficient management of operational risks. The paper identifies education as the foundation of knowledge and knowledge as the foundation of the long-term development of organisations. They grow in significance when employing a process approach to risk management, especially the connected roles of ?process owners? and ?risk owners? in effective process and risk management. It is also clearly shown that any defence against risk, is as strong as its weakest link, and the weakest link in the chain of defence is an untrained, demotivated or dissatisfied employee or team, who are unable to recognize risk on time.

  3. Preparing Safety Cases for Operating Outside Prescriptive Fatigue Risk Management Regulations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gander, Philippa; Mangie, Jim; Wu, Lora; van den Berg, Margo; Signal, Leigh; Phillips, Adrienne

    2017-07-01

    Transport operators seeking to operate outside prescriptive fatigue management regulations are typically required to present a safety case justifying how they will manage the associated risk. This paper details a method for constructing a successful safety case. The method includes four elements: 1) scope (prescriptive rules and operations affected); 2) risk assessment; 3) risk mitigation strategies; and 4) monitoring ongoing risk. A successful safety case illustrates this method. It enables landing pilots in 3-pilot crews to choose the second or third in-flight rest break, rather than the regulatory requirement to take the third break. Scope was defined using a month of scheduled flights that would be covered (N = 4151). These were analyzed in the risk assessment using existing literature on factors affecting fatigue to estimate the maximum time awake at top of descent and sleep opportunities in each break. Additionally, limited data collected before the new regulations showed that pilots flying at landing chose the third break on only 6% of flights. A prospective survey comparing subjective reports (N = 280) of sleep in the second vs. third break and fatigue and sleepiness ratings at top of descent confirmed that the third break is not consistently superior. The safety case also summarized established systems for fatigue monitoring, risk assessment and hazard identification, and multiple fatigue mitigation strategies that are in place. Other successful safety cases have used this method. The evidence required depends on the expected level of risk and should evolve as experience with fatigue risk management systems builds.Gander P, Mangie J, Wu L, van den Berg M, Signal L, Phillips A. Preparing safety cases for operating outside prescriptive fatigue risk management regulations. Aerosp Med Hum Perform. 2017; 88(7):688-696.

  4. Psychosocial risks evaluation factors: study with higher education teachers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sara Lopes Borges

    2018-02-01

    Method: The study consisted of the administration of two instruments, one for the characterization of the sample and the other for assessing psychosocial risk factors — the Copenhagen Psychosocial Questionnaire — consisting of 76 items (5-point Likert scale, distributed in five dimensions, which measure indicators of exposure to psychosocial risks and their effects. Results: The study included 59 teachers, mostly men (50.8%, aged between 41 - 50 years (45.8%, with master's degree (59%, assistant professors (47.5%; with a stable employment relationship (68%, years of service between 14-17 years (18.7% and teaching between 11 - 17 hours a week (64.4%. The analysis of the various subscales revealed a psychosocial risk, showing that teachers are in a situation of vulnerability. There were significant differences between the risks experienced in public higher education and those experienced in private higher education. Gender, age, academic background, and professional category influenced the type of psychosocial risk. Conclusions: The study confirms the importance of the evaluation of psychosocial risk factors in the exercise of the teaching profession in higher education. It is recognized that it is necessary to assess and manage psychosocial risks in order to promote healthy working conditions, ensure respect and fair treatment, and encourage the promotion of work / family life balance, in order to minimize psychosocial risks and situations of vulnerability in higher education teachers.

  5. SMART operational field test evaluation : dispatchers survey report : final report

    Science.gov (United States)

    1997-06-01

    The Suburban Mobility Authority for Regional Transportation (SMART) has installed an automaticscheduling and dispatch system (ASD) in Southeast Michigan in accordance with their plans toimplement ITS as a site for an operational field test. The purpo...

  6. SMART operational field test evaluation : scheduler survey report : final report

    Science.gov (United States)

    1997-06-01

    The Suburban Mobility Authority for Regional Transportation (SMART) has installed an automatic scheduling and dispatch system (ASD) in Southeast Michigan in accordance with their plans to implement ITS as a site for an operational field test. The pur...

  7. Evaluation of physical facilities and processing operations of major ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ADEYEYE

    abattoirs were as a result of failure to enforce the use of standard facilities in carrying out abattoir operations and general maintenance ... incinerator, chemical treatment and disposal. Sub- .... Veterinary laboratory .... sustainable food security.

  8. Open Access Evaluation of Post-Operative Visual Outcomes of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Nearly half of the operative eyes had borderline outcome (6/24-6/60) within 48 hours of surgery and at follow .... minimum time frame for complete recovery when surgery related .... consolidated data from the US, Canada, Denmark and Spain.

  9. Plant operator selection system for evaluating employment candidates' potential for success in electric power plant operations positions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dunnette, M.D.

    1982-01-01

    The Plant Operator Selection System is a battery of tests and questionnaires that can be administered to job candidates in less than three hours. Various components of the battery measure what a job candidate has accomplished in previous educational and work situations, how well a candidate compares with others on a number of important aptitudes or abilities, and whether or not a candidate possesses the kind of personal stability required in power plant operations positions. A job candidate's answers to the tests and questionnaires of the Plant Operator Selection System are scored and converted to an OVERALL POTENTIAL INDEX. Values of the OVERALL POTENTIAL INDEX [OPI] range between 0 and 15. Candidates with high OPI values are much more likely to become effective and successful plant operators than candidates with low OPI values. It is possible to estimate the financial advantages to a company of using the Plant Operator Selection System in evaluating candidates for plant operations jobs

  10. Evaluation of risk scores for risk stratification of acute coronary syndromes in the Myocardial Infarction National Audit Project (MINAP) database.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gale, C P; Manda, S O M; Weston, C F; Birkhead, J S; Batin, P D; Hall, A S

    2009-03-01

    To compare the discriminative performance of the PURSUIT, GUSTO-1, GRACE, SRI and EMMACE risk models, assess their performance among risk supergroups and evaluate the EMMACE risk model over the wider spectrum of acute coronary syndrome (ACS). Observational study of a national registry. All acute hospitals in England and Wales. 100 686 cases of ACS between 2003 and 2005. Model performance (C-index) in predicting the likelihood of death over the time period for which they were designed. The C-index, or area under the receiver-operating curve, range 0-1, is a measure of the discriminative performance of a model. The C-indexes were: PURSUIT C-index 0.79 (95% confidence interval 0.78 to 0.80); GUSTO-1 0.80 (0.79 to 0.81); GRACE in-hospital 0.80 (0.80 to 0.81); GRACE 6-month 0.80 (0.79 to 0.80); SRI 0.79 (0.78 to 0.80); and EMMACE 0.78 (0.77 to 0.78). EMMACE maintained its ability to discriminate 30-day mortality throughout different ACS diagnoses. Recalibration of the model offered no notable improvement in performance over the original risk equation. For all models the discriminative performance was reduced in patients with diabetes, chronic renal failure or angina. The five ACS risk models maintained their discriminative performance in a large unselected English and Welsh ACS population, but performed less well in higher-risk supergroups. Simpler risk models had comparable performance to more complex risk models. The EMMACE risk score performed well across the wider spectrum of ACS diagnoses.

  11. Evolution and Implementation of the NASA Robotic Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis Concept of Operations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Newman, L.; Hejduk, M.; Frigm, R.; Duncan, M.

    2014-09-01

    On-orbit collisions pose a significant mission risk to satellites operating in the space environment. Recognizing the likelihood and consequence of on-orbit collisions, NASA has taken several proactive measures to mitigate the risk of both a catastrophic loss of mission and the increase in the space debris population. In fall 2004, NASA GSFC established an Agency-wide, institutionalized process and service for identifying and reacting to predicted close approaches. The team responsible for executing this mission is the NASA Robotic Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis (CARA) team. By fall 2005, this process had resulted in the execution of the first collision avoidance maneuver by a NASA unmanned satellite. In February 2008, NASA adopted a policy, documented in NASA Procedural Requirement 8715.6a Process for Limiting Orbital Debris that directed maneuverable satellites to have such an on-orbit collision mitigation process. In 2009, NASA decided to require support for all operational satellites. By January 2014, the CARA team has processed nearly 500,000 close approach messages from the Joint Space Operations Center (JSpOC) and has assisted our mission customers with planning and executing over 75 collision avoidance maneuvers for unmanned satellites in LEO, GEO, and HEO orbital regimes. With the increase in number of operational missions supported; growth in the orbital debris environment due to events such as the intentional destruction of the Fengyun 1-C satellite in 2007 and collision between Iridium-33 and Cosmos-2251; and improvements to the United States Space Surveillance Network (SSN) and its ability to track, catalog, and screen against small debris objects, the demands on the CARA process have consequently required the CARA Concept of Operations (CONOPS) to evolve to manage those demands. This evolution is centered on the ability to effectively and efficiently manage JSpOC, CARA, and Mission Operations resources, applying operational and analytical

  12. Ergonomics and risk management in high risk organizations: nuclear power plant operator decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carvalho, Paulo Victor Rodrigues de

    2003-08-01

    Nuclear power plants are high hazard environments where emergency situations can have devastating effects. The operator crew has the ultimate responsibility to control the energy production process with safety. The outcome of a crisis is consequently dependent on the crew's judgement, decision making and situation awareness. In such way we should know how operators make their decisions in order to develop safety strategies. The aim of this thesis is to examine the cognitive processes through which operators make decisions when dealing with micro incidents during their actual work, and to determine whether they use a naturalistic or normative decision making strategy. That is, do they try to recognize the micro incident as familiar and base decisions on condition-action rules (naturalistic), or do they need to concurrently compare and contrast options before selecting the best possible (normative). The method employed for data collection was the Cognitive Task Analysis (CTA) and Ergonomic Work Analysis (EWA). The main findings of this thesis were that decision making is primarily based on naturalistic strategies, such as condition-action rules and recognition. In new situations rules are created ad hoc. These rules appear derived from experience and training rather than from Standard Operating Procedures and contrast normative competence standards used by nuclear industry. (author)

  13. Operational Choices for Risk Aggregation in Insurance: PSDization and SCR Sensitivity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xavier Milhaud

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available This work addresses crucial questions about the robustness of the PSDization process for applications in insurance. PSDization refers to the process that forces a matrix to become positive semidefinite. For companies using copulas to aggregate risks in their internal model, PSDization occurs when working with correlation matrices to compute the Solvency Capital Requirement (SCR. We examine how classical operational choices concerning the modelling of risk dependence impacts the SCR during PSDization. These operations refer to the permutations of risks (or business lines in the correlation matrix, the addition of a new risk, and the introduction of confidence weights given to the correlation coefficients. The use of genetic algorithms shows that theoretically neutral transformations of the correlation matrix can surprisingly lead to significant sensitivities of the SCR (up to 6%. This highlights the need for a very strong internal control around the PSDization step.

  14. Experimental approaches for evaluating the invasion risk of biofuel crops

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Luke Flory, S; Sollenberger, Lynn E; Lorentz, Kimberly A; Gordon, Doria R

    2012-01-01

    There is growing concern that non-native plants cultivated for bioenergy production might escape and result in harmful invasions in natural areas. Literature-derived assessment tools used to evaluate invasion risk are beneficial for screening, but cannot be used to assess novel cultivars or genotypes. Experimental approaches are needed to help quantify invasion risk but protocols for such tools are lacking. We review current methods for evaluating invasion risk and make recommendations for incremental tests from small-scale experiments to widespread, controlled introductions. First, local experiments should be performed to identify conditions that are favorable for germination, survival, and growth of candidate biofuel crops. Subsequently, experimental introductions in semi-natural areas can be used to assess factors important for establishment and performance such as disturbance, founder population size, and timing of introduction across variable habitats. Finally, to fully characterize invasion risk, experimental introductions should be conducted across the expected geographic range of cultivation over multiple years. Any field-based testing should be accompanied by safeguards and monitoring for early detection of spread. Despite the costs of conducting experimental tests of invasion risk, empirical screening will greatly improve our ability to determine if the benefits of a proposed biofuel species outweigh the projected risks of invasions. (letter)

  15. Some research results by risk-inform approaches for NPP safety and operational efficiency

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Komarov, Yu.A.

    2013-01-01

    Article is the presentation of the same name monograph, which is planned to be issued. In the article the perspective problems of further development risk-oriented approach (ROA) for the grounding and realization of measures on increase of safety and operational efficiency of NPP are considered. Unlike the traditional approach for the ROA, mean due the definition of probabilistic and/or deterministic methods of risk parameters, as criterion functions essence and the measure of the estimation are defined by the solution of specific problem in nuclear field. The ROA application allows essentially expanding opportunities of the substantiations and realizations of measures on safety and operational efficiency increase of NPP

  16. Evaluation of ergonomic risk factors in manual patient handling ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    WMSDs among nurses in West Bengal, India, evaluates the postural stresses and analyses manual patient handling risks. Responses were collected from 220 nurses by validated questionnaires. The activity and posture analyses were done through photography and by Rapid Entire Body Assessment (REBA). Results ...

  17. Rape Prevention with College Men: Evaluating Risk Status

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stephens, Kari A.; George, William H.

    2009-01-01

    This study evaluates the effectiveness of a theoretically based rape prevention intervention with college men who were at high or low risk to perpetrate sexually coercive behavior. Participants (N = 146) are randomly assigned to the intervention or control group. Outcomes include rape myth acceptance, victim empathy, attraction to sexual…

  18. Evaluation of forest management systems under risk of wildfire

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kari Hyytiainen; Robert G. Haight

    2010-01-01

    We evaluate the economic efficiency of even- and uneven-aged management systems under risk of wildfire. The management problems are formulated for a mixed-conifer stand and approximations of the optimal solutions are obtained using simulation optimization. The Northern Idaho variant of the Forest Vegetation Simulator and its Fire and Fuels Extension is used to predict...

  19. Evaluating the Security Risks of System Using Hidden Markov Models

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    System security assessment tools are either restricted to manual risk evaluation methodologies that are not appropriate for real-time application or used to determine the impact of certain events on the security status of networked systems. In this paper, we determine the strength of computer systems from the perspective of ...

  20. Market Microstructure Effects on Firm Default Risk Evaluation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Flavia Barsotti

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Default probability is a fundamental variable determining the credit worthiness of a firm and equity volatility estimation plays a key role in its evaluation. Assuming a structural credit risk modeling approach, we study the impact of choosing different non parametric equity volatility estimators on default probability evaluation, when market microstructure noise is considered. A general stochastic volatility framework with jumps for the underlying asset dynamics is defined inside a Merton-like structural model. To estimate the volatility risk component of a firm we use high-frequency equity data: market microstructure noise is introduced as a direct effect of observing noisy high-frequency equity prices. A Monte Carlo simulation analysis is conducted to (i test the performance of alternative non-parametric equity volatility estimators in their capability of filtering out the microstructure noise and backing out the true unobservable asset volatility; (ii study the effects of different non-parametric estimation techniques on default probability evaluation. The impact of the non-parametric volatility estimators on risk evaluation is not negligible: a sensitivity analysis defined for alternative values of the leverage parameter and average jumps size reveals that the characteristics of the dataset are crucial to determine which is the proper estimator to consider from a credit risk perspective.