WorldWideScience

Sample records for opec

  1. OPEC behavior

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Bo

    This thesis aims to contribute to a further understanding of the real dynamics of OPEC production behavior and its impacts on the world oil market. A literature review in this area shows that the existing studies on OPEC still have some major deficiencies in theoretical interpretation and empirical estimation technique. After a brief background review in chapter 1, chapter 2 tests Griffin's market-sharing cartel model on the post-Griffin time horizon with a simultaneous system of equations, and an innovative hypothesis of OPEC's behavior (Saudi Arabia in particular) is then proposed based on the estimation results. Chapter 3 first provides a conceptual analysis of OPEC behavior under the framework of non-cooperative collusion with imperfect information. An empirical model is then constructed and estimated. The results of the empirical studies in this thesis strongly support the hypothesis that OPEC has operated as a market-sharing cartel since the early 1980s. In addition, the results also provide some support of the theory of non-cooperative collusion under imperfect information. OPEC members collude under normal circumstances and behave competitively at times in response to imperfect market signals of cartel compliance and some internal attributes. Periodic joint competition conduct plays an important role in sustaining the collusion in the long run. Saudi Arabia acts as the leader of the cartel, accommodating intermediate unfavorable market development and punishing others with a tit-for-tat strategy in extreme circumstances.

  2. OPEC future capacity expansions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sandrea, I.

    2005-01-01

    This conference presentation examined OPEC future capacity expansions including highlights from 2000-2004 from the supply perspective and actions by OPEC; OPEC spare capacity in 2005/2006; medium-term capacity expansion and investments; long-term scenarios, challenges and opportunities; and upstream policies in member countries. Highlights from the supply perspective included worst than expected non-OPEC supply response; non-OPEC supply affected by a number of accidents and strikes; geopolitical tensions; and higher than expected demand for OPEC crude. OPEC's actions included closer relationship with other producers and consumers; capacity expansions in 2004 and 2005/2006; and OPEC kept the market well supplied with crude in 2004. The presentation also provided data using graphical charts on OPEC net capacity additions until 2005/2006; OPEC production versus spare capacity from 2003 to 2005; OPEC production and capacity to 2010; and change in required OPEC production from 2005-2020. Medium term expansion to 2010 includes over 60 projects. Medium-term risks such as project execution, financing, costs, demand, reserves, depletion, integration of Iraq, and geopolitical tensions were also discussed. The presentation concluded that in the long term, large uncertainties remain; the peak of world supply is not imminent; and continued and enhanced cooperation is essential to market stability. tabs., figs

  3. OPEC's production policies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mabro, R.

    1989-01-01

    An enlightening study on the workings of OPEC its policies and practices, agreements and disagreements, and how each affects the world petroleum market. The book explores OPEC's production patterns and quota agreements and the relationship between production and pricing policies. Political compromises that have hindered OPEC production agreements and their successful implementation are covered - compromises such as concessions made to the U.A.E. and those resulting from the Gulf war. Notable historical events are cited, and a look into the future at what we can expect of OPEC in coming years concludes the study

  4. Prospects for OPEC capacity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Adelman, M.A.

    1995-01-01

    OPEC capacity is not exogenous, but responds to demand. Price increases have not been caused by capacity shortages. OPEC nations find it hard to set aside even very small portions of their revenues for oil investment, despite its extreme profitability. Foreign investors face high risks. Production sharing makes their after-tax return even more unstable. (author)

  5. Imperfect Cartelization in OPEC

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Okullo, Samuel; Reynes, F.

    2016-01-01

    A model of global oil production is applied to study cartelization by OPEC countries. Writing out the shadow price on quota allocations so as to draw correspondence to coefficients of cooperation (Cyert et al. 1973), we examine the incentives that different OPEC members to collude. We find that

  6. Opec's fratricidal gas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stauffer, T.

    1997-01-01

    The growing dependence of the world economy on natural gas has presented political problems to the OPEC states in terms of how to handle such exports within the oil quotes agreed between members. The impact in terms of relative gain or loss is presented for eleven OPEC members. (UK)

  7. Alternatives to OPEC oil

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Johnson, C.

    1981-01-01

    This paper starts from the assumption that, for various reasons, the supply of OPEC oil required to meet a rising world energy demand will continue to be limited. Its purpose is to present a synoptic look at the various sources of energy which are alternatives to OPEC oil, with an economic commentary on the prospects for each source. A wide variety of projects are going forward for the development of non-OPEC oil, gas, coal, and nuclear power, as well as renewable energy resources. Special attention is devoted to questions of energy pricing, investment costs, and sources of finance. (author)

  8. OPEC and natural gas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Samsam Bakhtiari, A.M.; Shahbudaghlou, F.

    1998-01-01

    This paper reviews the involvement of OPEC Member Countries in the natural gas industry in the past, present and future. It notes a tenfold increase in marketed production and a fourfold rise in re-injection since 1970. Collectively, Members now hold 41 per cent of the world's proven gas reserves and account for 20 per cent of exports. Individually, four of these countries hold position 2-5 in the world gas reserve rankings. Within OPEC, however, there remains an emphasis of oil over gas, not least because of oil's favourable position with regard to revenue-generation and profitability. As global demand continues on its upward growth curve in a more environmentally aware world, OPEC's gas horizons will widen. OPEC's strong reserve base will give its Members an undeniable role to play on the future global gas stage. However, these countries will give priority to domestic usage, particularly re-injection schemes

  9. Can OPEC hold it together?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lauerman, V.

    2002-01-01

    This presentation described the status of OPEC and whether it can continue to operate under the current economic situation. OPEC is the most successful commodity cartel in history, but the author cautions that it is only a matter of time before it self destructs. OPEC has not served the interest of Saudi Arabia in the past and it will not be able to serve its interest in the future without strong incremental demand for OPEC oil. The author stated that OPEC is threatened by Islamic fundamentalists and by financial difficulty due to a decline in export revenues. Other threats for OPEC are environmental, strategic and technological. The author concluded that Saudi Arabia is likely to choose to abandon OPEC, because the cartel will continue to be at the mercy of world oil demand and non-OPEC supply. 19 figs

  10. OPEC: 10 years later

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1983-09-01

    This paper summarizes the trends and developments in the OPEC cartel since the Arab oil boycott. It discusses the economic developments among OPEC countries and the impacts on the US economy caused price increases. It discusses the adjustments the US and other world markets are making to cut the amounts of oil consumption. The paper also goes on to discuss the effects of a possible Persian Gulf cut-off of oil to the US and US allies. The effects of falling oil prices on Arab oil producers as compared to benefits are compared.

  11. Determinants of OPEC production: Implications for OPEC behavior

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kaufmann, Robert K.; Bradford, Andrew; Belanger, Laura H.; Mclaughlin, John P.; Miki, Yosuke

    2008-01-01

    We estimate models that identify the economic and organizational determinants of crude oil production by individual OPEC nations. To clarify the interpretation of econometric results, we model production with specifications that resolve the statistical ordering of variables and estimate models with techniques that can cope with stochastic trends in the time series. We also analyze the short-run dynamics for asymmetries that may carry important insights about OPEC behavior. Results indicate that Quotas are an important determinant of production and their effects generally are symmetric, which implies that OPEC is an organization that influences production and ultimately prices. Real prices generally have a positive effect on production and the size of this effect may depend on spare capacity, which implies that OPEC behaviors also embody competitive elements. Finally all nations other than Saudi Arabia show some form of production sharing behavior, which may imply that OPEC shares mismatches between the call for OPEC production and OPEC quotas. (author)

  12. Imperfect cartelization in OPEC

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Okullo, S.J.; Reynès, F.

    2016-01-01

    A model of global oil production is applied to study cartelization by OPEC countries. We define a measure for the degree of cooperation, analogous to the market conduct parameter of Cyert et al. (1973), Geroski et al. (1987), Lofaro (1999), and Symeonidis (2000). This parameter is used to assess the

  13. OPEC annual report 1983

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1983-01-01

    This annual report is concerned with the following items: the general economic situation of OPEC member countries, other developing countries and the industrial countries; energy market developments (environment, crude oil, crude oil prices, oil stock movements); upstream and downstream activities (exploration, production and reserves, refining, petrochemicals, hydrocarbon transportation, legislation, contracts and agreements in Member Countries); activities of the Secretariat. The annexes contain statistical data, press releases and resolutions and a schedule of member Country representatives and officials of the Secretariat.

  14. The decline of OPEC

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van der Linde, C.

    1992-01-01

    Since 1973 the OPEC meets more and more problems in protecting and reconciling both the individual and collective interests of the member states. Differences in oil reserves, production capacities, dependence of oil revenues and the extent of vertical integration revealed opposite interests with regard to the price and production level. Moreover there is the problem of the economic weaker OPEC countries how to realize the necessary investments in the oil industry. It is only possible to attract foreign capital if they abandon agreements concerning restrictions of oil production. The resignation of Ecuador shows that cancellation of the OPEC membership than is only a logical consequence. Attention is paid to the developments which have lead to the above-mentioned problems. The main causes are the two oil crises in 1973, 1979/1980, and the strong reduction in oil prices in 1986. Also the necessity to extend the production capacity and to renovate existing capacity in order to fulfill the demand of lighter oil products and newly implemented environmental legislation has led to investment problems of the international oil industries. 2 figs., 17 refs

  15. Overview of geopolitical hotspots : OPEC

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cisneros-Lavaller, A.

    2004-01-01

    This presentation reviewed the recent history (from 1998) of export volumes and prices of OPEC, oil exporting countries. It summarized cyclical trends in OPEC's behaviour and claims that changes to the current Price Defense Strategy could occur by 2010. The presentation also outlined the production behaviour of different countries in compliance with OPEC agreements. Algeria, Iraq, Venezuela and Nigeria were identified as significant case studies for several reasons, including future production increases from those countries. Two divergent OPEC scenarios were presented, from re-accommodation to a free for all type of policy within the organizational context for the mid-term. The author claims that it is time to review OPEC long-term policy to ensure revenue maximization. A change in OPEC policy is viable because it is possible to achieve comparable revenue with a combination of larger production volumes and more moderate prices. tabs., figs

  16. OPEC`s response to international climate agreements

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Braaten, J.; Golombek, R.

    1996-03-01

    This publication studies a game between a group of countries that have agreed to participate in an international climate agreement (the signatories) and OPEC. The task of the signatories is to design carbon taxes that maximize their total net income, given a goal on global carbon emissions. In response to the climate agreement, OPEC imposes an oil tax on its member states that maximizes OPEC`s profits. Within a numerical model, the subgame-perfect equilibrium of a game is found in which each player chooses when to fix his decision variables. It is shown that, in equilibrium, the group of signatories chooses to be the leader and OPEC chooses to be the follower. It is demonstrated, however, that for both agents the order of move is of minor (numerical) importance. Hence, the players have limited incentives for strategic behaviour. 15 refs., 2 figs., 5 tabs.

  17. OPEC's optimal crude oil price

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Horn, Manfred

    2004-01-01

    OPEC decided to stabilise oil prices within a range of 22-28 US Dollar/barrel of crude oil. Such an oil-price-level is far beyond the short and long run marginal costs of oil production, beyond even that in regions with particularly high costs. Nevertheless, OPEC may achieve its goal if world demand for oil increases substantially in the future and oil resources outside the OPEC are not big enough to accordingly increase production. In this case OPEC, which controls about 78% of world oil reserves, has to supply a large share of that demand increase. If we assume OPEC will behave as a partial monopolist on the oil market, which takes into consideration the reaction of the other producers to its own sales strategy, it can reach its price target. Lower prices before 2020 are probable only if the OPEC cartel breaks up. Higher prices are possible if production outside OPEC is inelastic as assumed by some geologists, but they would probably stimulate the production of unconventional oil based on oil sand or coal. Crude oil prices above 30 US Dollar/barrel are therefore probably not sustainable for a long period. (Author)

  18. Who might realign with OPEC?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Djamarani, M.

    1994-01-01

    Opec's influence has waned since the heady days of the mid to late 1970s when its concerted actions first quadrupled oil prices in the wake of the Yom Kippur war in 1973 and then trebled again in 1979-80 to almost $40/barrel in the aftermath of the Iranian revolution and the start of the first Iran-Iraq war. Today OPEC member states are struggling to prevent oil prices from falling below $14/b spot prices. To boost sagging oil prices and to reassert its control over the world oil market, OPEC has been considering widening its membership or at least developing closer relations with other oil producers. (Author)

  19. OPEC's strategies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wirl, Franz [Vienna Univ. (Austria). Faculty of Business, Economics and Statistics

    2012-09-15

    This paper investigates rationale explanations of OPEC's strategies. Accounting for market characteristics in particular the sluggishness of demand and supply allows to explain price jumps as rational OPEC strategies from a narrow economic perspective (up and down) as well as from political objectives (at least up) due to the political payoff from standing up against the 'West'. Although the temptation to accrue this political payoff was and remains high, the narrow economic profit motive coupled with an imperfect cooperation among OPEC members explains past price volatility and high prices much better than the usual reference to political events. A more specific prediction is that OPEC will switch back to setting prices since the current quantity strategy encourages oil importing countries to appropriate rents in particular in connection with the need to mitigate global warming. (orig.)

  20. Non-OPEC future production

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Campbell, C.J.

    1997-01-01

    Recent optimistic predictions of future growth in non-OPEC oil production have failed to discuss the underlying resource base. Peak discovery occurred some time ago and exploration has been sufficiently extensive to indicate that no new major provinces remain undetected. Advances in technology are likely only to influence production from the smaller and more difficult fields and will not have much effect globally. The main impact of improved technology is to increase the production rate and accelerate depletion thereby. The recent increasing trend in non-OPEC production cannot be extrapolated indefinitely. It is argued that Gulf OPEC share of world production will rise to 30% before the end of the century in response to rising demand thus setting the scene for another oil price shock. (UK)

  1. Non-OPEC oil supply

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mohammad, Y.H.

    1990-01-01

    The concentration of world oil reserves in members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has resulted in directing most of the attention toward them. Analysts in energy and petroleum place particular emphasis on developments within these countries. This emphasis is well placed and justified if the scope of the study is long term. However, it would be imprudent to minimize the role of non-OPEC producers in the world petroleum market if the scope of the study is short or medium term. The profiles of production in these countries assume particular importance in assessing market equilibrium and the resulting price pattern. Moreover, development since the early 1980s proved the resilience of production in non-OPEC nations and their ability to maintain production despite a substantial price decline. In fact, some of the countries were able to expand their output despite the decline in prices. In order to analyze this phenomenon, the present paper attempts to utilize available data to estimate an aggregate supply function for the non-OPEC producers as well as a separate supply function for the U.K. North Sea region. The objective is to assess the shape of the supply function and to get reliable estimates of the supply elasticity. The next section outlines the profiles of reserves and production in both OPEC and non-OPEC countries. Thereafter, the data and the estimation method are discussed. The subsequent fourth section presents the results of the estimation, followed by a summary and conclusions. 2 figs., 4 tabs

  2. OPEC and other commodity cartels: a comparison

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alhajji, A.F.; Huettner, D.

    2000-01-01

    The economic literature provides specific characteristics for cartels. Although the theory of international cartels in not well developed in the literature, and every cartel is unique, some of these characteristics exist in each cartel. This study investigates the existence of these characteristics in six known commodity cartels including OPEC. In addition, it compares the oil companies' cartel, 'the Seven Sisters', to OPEC, and summarizes the findings of OPEC econometric models developed in the literature in the last 25 years and concludes that the results do not support cartel or competitive models for OPEC. Although other cartels are more successful than OPEC, many books and articles in economics use OPEC as a cartel example. Neither statistical tests nor theory support the popular use of OPEC as a cartel example. Indeed, this article concludes that OPEC is composed of Saudi Arabia, the dominant world producer, plus several distinct sub-groups and that separate models are required to explain the behavior of each. Assigning the power of some OPEC members to OPEC has caused confusion about its behavior. Recent OPEC success is attributed to political, natural, and technical capacity limitations in the oil fields that prevented countries from cheating on their quota. In other words, OPEC adherence to the quota, except for Saudi Arabia, is anything but voluntary. (author)

  3. Crude prices - is OPEC relevant?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Verleger, P.K. Jr.

    1994-01-01

    Oil-exporting nations are in deep trouble. A global recession is suppressing consumption growth and frustrating exporter attempts to boost prices. Future prospects for oil exporters appear even bleaker. New production from several satellites of the former Soviet Union (FSU) will reach the market within a few years, limiting the increase in OPEC scales, and the FSU's incremental output will be augmented by much larger exports from Iraq. An oil price surge resulting from turmoil in Nigeria will, ironically, only serve to emphasize OPEC's loss of influence. When a cartel-like organization breaks down, the result is usually lower and more volatile prices, and so political or physical production disruptions have a greater impact on volumes supplied. In the future, these disruptions will occur more often because of the worsening financial situation in exporting countries. (author)

  4. Oil prices and OPEC strategies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boussena, S.

    1994-01-01

    One of the main characteristics of the new world petroleum market is the high level of uncertainty in future crude price trends. Although its influence has declined, OPEC is still a decisive player now. How can its present conduct be explained. A retrospective analysis of the organization's actions in the course of these last twenty years brings out a certain number of explicit and implicit lessons it seems to have drawn from its own experience. On the basis of this analysis, and in light of the new balance of forces, OPEC is now faced with two possible strategic options. Its current practice seems rather to indicate a drift away from its plan to become the exclusive regulator of the international market. (author). 2 tabs., 3 figs

  5. Organisation of the OPEC states. Die Organisation der OPEC-Laender

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dumrath, C

    1980-01-01

    Historical, political, international, and structural aspects of all OPEC states are presented. The history of the OPEC is reviewed, its charta is discussed, and the conditions of membership are presented. Special characteristics of the member states are presented in short separate chapters. OPEC and international law is the subject of another chapter. The future prospects of the OPEC are discussed in the form of an interview.

  6. OPEC strategy on world petroleum market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boussena, S.

    1994-01-01

    OPEC has to choose between two options, either a regulated market or a situation of whole competition. The other big producers refuse to share responsibility of a market stabilization and oblige OPEC to a strategy 'uncertainty' which is in fact a 'non-interference' policy but it is not sure that OPEC accepts to be the only market regulator and then the residual supplier when supply is bigger than demand

  7. Domestic demand for petroleum in OPEC countries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chakravorty, U.; Fesharaki, F.; Zhou, S.

    2000-01-01

    The literature on OPEC energy policy has focused primarily on its production and export potential. The rapidly increasing domestic demand for petroleum products in OPEC countries has often been ignored. This study estimates domestic demand for petroleum products by the major OPEC economies and forecasts consumption trends under alternative assumptions regarding economic growth and price deregulation. It concludes that product demand is generally price and income inelastic and thus domestic consumption in OPEC will continue to grow rapidly, even if domestic prices are raised closer to world levels in the near future

  8. OPEC and non-OPEC oil production and the global economy

    OpenAIRE

    Ratti, Ronald A.; Vespignani, Joaquin L.

    2014-01-01

    Hamilton identifies 1973 to 1996 as “the age of OPEC” and 1997 to the present as “a new industrial age.” During 1974-1996 growth in non-OPEC oil production Granger causes growth in OPEC oil production. OPEC oil production decreases significantly with positive shocks to non-OPEC oil production in the earlier period, but does not do so in the “new industrial age”. In the “new industrial age” OPEC oil production rises significantly with an increase in oil prices, unlike during “the age of OPEC” ...

  9. The road from Rio - OPEC's view

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Subroto

    1994-01-01

    The Secretary General of OPEC presents the views of OPEC on the environmental debate at the Rio Summit, the topic of environmental taxation. Recommendations are put forward on the financing of Agenda 21 programs and on the concept of technology transfer, to help achieve sustainable development

  10. OPEC charts course for future oil market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Subroto, H.E.

    1992-01-01

    The author says OPEC is an economic organization with a simple mission: to provide a stable and reliable supply of oil to its customers and assure a fair return to its producers. When OPEC was formed in 1960, he recalls multinational oil companies dominated the oil market. Their operations were highly integrated from well to pump, and they kept oil prices low to fuel economic growth in prosperous industrialized countries. Host nations were rarely consulted in operations, and they reaped only minimal return for their black gold. OPEC changed all that. Today, OPEC's 13 member countries control their own oil industries, and some even own sizeable investments in the downstream sectors of consuming countries. To meet its commitment for supplying the petroleum needs of industrialized nations by the turn of the century, the author estimates OPEC will need to increase production capacity by about 40% at a cost well above what member countries can afford alone

  11. Long Run Dynamic Volatilities between OPEC and non-OPEC Crude Oil Prices

    OpenAIRE

    Ghassan, Hassan B.; Alhajhoj, Hassan R.

    2015-01-01

    Understanding the long-run dynamics of OPEC and non-OPEC crude oil prices is important in an era of increased financialization of petroleum markets. Utilizing an ECM within a threshold cointegration and CGARCH errors framework, we provide evidence on the cointegrating relationship and estimate how and to what extent the respective prices adjust to eliminate disequilibrium. Our findings suggest that the adjustment process of OPEC prices to the positive discrepancies is slow which implies that ...

  12. Oil supply between OPEC and non-OPEC based on game theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Yuwen; Yi, Jiexin; Yan, Wei; Yang, Xinshe; Zhang, Song; Gao, Yifan; Wang, Xi

    2014-10-01

    The competing strategies between OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) and non-OPEC producers make the oil supply market a complex system, and thus, it is very difficult to model and to make predictions. In this paper, we combine the macro-model based on game theory and micro-model to propose a new approach for forecasting oil supply. We take into account the microscopic behaviour in the clearing market and also use the game relationships to adjust oil supplies in our approach. For the supply model, we analyse and consider the different behaviour of non-OPEC and OPEC producers. According to our analysis, limiting the oil supply, and thus maintaining oil price, is the best strategy for OPEC in the low-price scenario, while the rising supply is the best strategy in the high-price scenario. No matter what the oil price is, the dominant strategy for non-OPEC producers is to increase their oil supply. In the high-price scenario, OPEC will try to deplete non-OPEC's share in the oil supply market, which is to OPEC's advantage.

  13. Will OPEC lose from the Kyoto Protocol?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barnett, Jon; Dessai, Suraje; Webber, Michael

    2004-01-01

    A range of energy-economy models forecast losses to members of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) should the Kyoto Protocol come into force. These forecasts are a powerful influence in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change negotiations. They are used by OPEC to advance the agenda on the impacts of response measures, covertly arguing for compensation for lost oil revenues arising from implementation of the Protocol. This paper discusses this issue, and explores the key assumptions of these models and their uncertainties. Assumptions about carbon leakage, future availability of oil reserves, substitution, innovation, and capital turnover are considered. The paper suggests that losses will not affect OPEC countries equally, and that these losses are not likely to be as substantial as the models forecast. A range of policy measures are proposed to lessen any impact the Protocol may have on OPEC

  14. OPEC's response to international climate agreements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Braaten, J.; Golombek, R.

    1998-01-01

    This paper studies a game between a group of countries that have agreed to participate in an international climate agreement (the signatories) and OPEC. The purpose of the signatories is to design carbon taxes that maximize their total net income, given a goal on global carbon emissions. As a response to the climate agreement, OPEC imposes an oil tax on its member states that maximizes OPEC's profits. Within a numerical model we find the subgame-perfect equilibrium of a game in which each player chooses when to fix his decision variables. It is shown that in equilibrium the group of signatories chooses to be the leader and OPEC chooses to be the follower. It is demonstrated, however, that for both agents the order of move is of minor (numerical) importance. Hence, the players have limited incentives for strategic behaviour. 17 refs

  15. The ineluctable growing control of OPEC

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1993-01-01

    This paper describes world petroleum supply, petroleum policy and production of OPEC. The great countries of OPEC such Kuwait, Iraq, Iran, Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates own 65 percent of world petroleum resources and ensure 25 percent of the world production. Venezuela, Nigeria and Libya dispose of considerable resources which require an important maintenance and heavy investments for using advanced technologies. Algeria, Qatar, Indonesia and Gabon dispose of petroleum resources below twenty years. 1 fig., 1 tab

  16. The market equilibrium of OPEC's pricing mechanism

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hammoudeh, S.; Madan, V.

    1990-01-01

    At least twice a year, oil ministers of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) meet in Vienna or Geneva to adjust the group's output ceiling to eliminate discrepancies between the market price and the target price. If the market imbalances are persistent, then the target price is also adjusted. Often, OPEC's members differ in their assessment of future market demand for their oil and, thus, present different views on the need to adjust the output celing and the target price. During periods of downward pressures on oil prices, the high absorbers of capital (i.e., oil revenues) prefer a speedy downward adjustment to the celing, while the low absorbers are slow to react. However, in the event of tightening markets, the low absorbers usually respond by exceeding their quotas before agreeing on a ceiling adjustment. Therefore, OPEC nations have different desirable speeds of adjustment. This paper specifies and examines the stability of OPEC's pricing mechanism. It presents a strategy which would enable the organization to achieve a target price-based market equilibrium with increased rapidity through the appropriate manipulation of the speed of output ceiling adjustment. This strategy is applied using data on market and target prices, actual output, and output ceilings for the first quarter of 1991. The main finding is that, given the target price, OPEC's equilibrium market demand is significantly lower than the assigned output ceiling. Production should have been reduced by at least 3 million barrels a day for OPEC to realize the $21 per barrel target price in the first quarter of 1991. Seasonal factors can cause slight variations in this output but would not bring out compatibility between the target price and the output ceiling within a reasonable period of time unless OPEC follows an activist policy of output adjustment. 3 figs., 1 tab

  17. Prospects for non-OPEC oil supply

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    O'Dell, S.

    1994-01-01

    An International Energy Agency forecast is provided of non-OPEC oil production over a 15-year horizon. Reference-case forecasts are derived from Hubbert-type resource models, official industry announcements about such matters as oil discoveries and development projects, and an oil industry consensus. Separate regional profiles are provided for North America, Europe, the former Soviet Union, and the rest of non-OPEC countries (South America, Asia, non-OPEC Middle East). Under a flat-price scenario ($18/bbl), total non-OPEC oil supply rises slightly from 41.4 million bbl/d (MBD) in 1995 to 41.9 MBD in 2010. Under a scenario in which prices rise to $28/bbl, oil supply rises to 47.5 MBD in 2010. The latter results depend on specific assumptions concerning economic growth, energy prices, the geological potential of some areas which are not yet well understood, technological advances, and the nature of political developments. Uncertainties regarding these assumptions are discussed, with reference to reserves, price responsiveness, world oil industry investment, technology, and costs. A major uncertainty is the issue of investment in the OPEC countries, since the rising-price scenario assumes that OPEC invests only reluctantly. If major OPEC producers choose to open their upstream sectors to international oil companies, the situation will change completely. Otherwise, oil markets are expected to continue to behave in the manner of the past 20 years, with highest-cost oil being developed first while cheaper oil remains in the ground. 8 refs., 10 figs., 3 tabs

  18. OPEC 1991 results reflect hard times

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Land, R.

    1992-01-01

    This paper reports that low crude oil prices and economic tough times in industrial countries cause a lean 1991 for members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. OPEC's 1991 annual report the member countries reported an overall loss of $12 billion in 1991 on oil revenues that fell 16.2%. Iraq and Kuwait were not included because of their unusual circumstances in the wake of the Persian Gulf war. Reduced oil revenues reflected a slide to $18.66/bbl in 1991 from $22.26/bbl in 1990 for the average price of OPEC basket crudes. As of last June 5 OPEC's basket crude price has averaged only $17.42/bbl this year, OPEC News Agency (Opecna) reported. First quarter 1992 prices averaged $16.77/bbl, compared wit $19.31/bbl in fourth quarter 1991. The average price jumped 52 cent/bbl the first week in June this year to $19.93/bbl, bouyed by Saudi Arabia's move at the end of May to shift its policy from price moderation to one in favor of higher prices, Opecna the. OPEC members increased production 1% in 1991 to an average 23.28 million b/d in spite of negligible production from Iraq and Kuwait and reduced production from Qatar

  19. OPEC suurendas sõja hirmus tootmiskvoote / Harli Uljas

    Index Scriptorium Estoniae

    Uljas, Harli

    2003-01-01

    Venezuela naftatootmise peatamisest tingitud nõudluse katmiseks suurendas OPEC 1,5 miljoni barreli võrra päevas tootmiskvoote. Autokütuste hindade ja Iraagi sõja ohu seosest. Tabel: OPEC: naftakvoodid

  20. The Middle East, OPEC and oil

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roberts, J.

    1996-01-01

    The importance of the Middle East to the oil industry, was discussed. The unresolved Arab-Israeli dispute and the ongoing conflicts in the Gulf are the two main reasons for political instability in the Middle East. This in turn, shapes the security of the region and its oil supplies. The factors which will shape the future of OPEC, including the Arab-Israeli conflict, the issue of the return of Iraqi crude to the market, and production decisions by Saudi Arabia were discussed in the context of their impact on OPEC's role as a coordinator of oil policies and of market stabilisation through price control

  1. A Threshold Cointegration Analysis of Asymmetric Adjustment of OPEC and non-OPEC Monthly Crude Oil Prices

    OpenAIRE

    Ghassan, Hassan B.; Banerjee, Prashanta K.

    2013-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to analyze the dynamics of crude oil prices of OPEC and non-OPEC countries using threshold cointegration. To capture the long run asymmetric price transmission mechanism, we develop an error correction model within a threshold cointegration and CGARCH errors framework. The empirical contribution of our paper specifies the cointegrating relation between OPEC price and non-OPEC prices and estimates how and to what extent the respective prices adjust to eliminate dis...

  2. OPEC Aid to the Developing Countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    OECD Observer, 1978

    1978-01-01

    For the third consecutive year, OPEC aid amounted to more than $5.5 billion, representing more than two percent of the gross national product. This is compared to 0.31 percent for members of OECD's Development Assistance Committee. (Author/BB)

  3. Do OPEC announcements influence oil prices?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Loutia, Amine; Mellios, Constantin; Andriosopoulos, Kostas

    2016-01-01

    This paper investigates the effect of OPEC production decisions (increase, cut, maintain) on both WTI and Brent crude oil prices between Q1 1991 and Q1 2015 by employing the event study methodology and by using two indices as benchmarks (BCI and S&P GSCI). We employ an EGARCH model to take into account the high volatility of oil prices and some stylized facts characterizing this volatility. We find that the impact of OPEC’s announcements on oil prices (i)evolves over time and among decisions, (ii) is more significant for production cut and maintain, (iii) is different for WTI and Brent prices, and (iv) is sensitive to the benchmark index. Moreover, OPEC’s decisions depend on the exploration and extraction cost of more expensive/unconventional oil resources. - Highlights: • The impact of OPEC's production decisions on both BRENT and WTI is examined. • We adopt the event study methodology. • An EGARCH model is used to capture some features characterizing oil prices volatility. • OPEC decisions effect changes over time and depends on production decisions and oil prices. • OPEC is less influential when prices are high and unconventional resources are viable.

  4. Shifting production trends point to more oil from OPEC

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ismail, I.A.H.

    1994-01-01

    Oil production from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and non-OPEC regions has undergone four major phases of change in relation to oil price since 1960. Patterns visible in those phases offer an indication of world-wide production trends in the future. These four phases are described. Overall, demand for oil during 1960--93 has increased from around 20 million b/d in 1960 to as high as 65 million b/d in 1993. The consensus among energy analysts and forecasters is that this demand growth will continue. This will encourage OPEC and non OPEC producers to invest in the oil industry to meet future demand growth. However, since the resource base is larger in OPEC than in non-OPEC areas, and since the cost of developing these resources is lower in OPEC than outside OPEC, the future call on OPEC oil to meet growth in demand will undoubtedly be substantiated as production from the non-OPEC region diminishes or at best stagnates. The paper discusses OPEC production trends, non-OPEC production, natural gas liquids, future production scenarios, and future constraints on production

  5. OPEC and Venezuelan oil production. Evidence against a cartel hypothesis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Reynolds, Douglas B.; Pippenger, Michael K. [Department of Economics, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK (United States)

    2010-10-15

    This study revisits the OPEC cartel hypothesis using a case study. A test is conducted to see if Venezuela has its production Granger cause its OPEC quota or whether the OPEC quota for Venezuela Granger causes Venezuelan production. The results show both occur at different times. In the short run, OPEC's oil production quota for Venezuela Granger causes Venezuelan production. However, shortly after cuts, Venezuela cheats on agreements, suggesting a tit-for-tat oligopoly game, which is not anti-competitive. In the long run, we show that Venezuelan oil production Granger causes OPEC's quota for Venezuela, but not vice versa. Having Venezuelan oil production Granger cause OPEC quotas for Venezuela in the long run suggests OPEC does not coordinate outputs as much as it reacts to them. The evidence suggests Venezuela is not a part of an OPEC anti-competitive syndicate even though we show that Venezuelan oil production is low. An alternative explanation for why Venezuela and possibly other OPEC members have low oil production outputs is that institutions and risk aversion, not cartel participation, is the cause. A vector error correction model shows that there is no tendency for Venezuelan oil production to converge to OPEC's quota for Venezuela. (author)

  6. OPEC and Venezuelan oil production: Evidence against a cartel hypothesis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Reynolds, Douglas B., E-mail: DBReynolds@Alaska.ed [Department of Economics, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK (United States); Pippenger, Michael K. [Department of Economics, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK (United States)

    2010-10-15

    This study revisits the OPEC cartel hypothesis using a case study. A test is conducted to see if Venezuela has its production Granger cause its OPEC quota or whether the OPEC quota for Venezuela Granger causes Venezuelan production. The results show both occur at different times. In the short run, OPEC's oil production quota for Venezuela Granger causes Venezuelan production. However, shortly after cuts, Venezuela cheats on agreements, suggesting a tit-for-tat oligopoly game, which is not anti-competitive. In the long run, we show that Venezuelan oil production Granger causes OPEC's quota for Venezuela, but not vice versa. Having Venezuelan oil production Granger cause OPEC quotas for Venezuela in the long run suggests OPEC does not coordinate outputs as much as it reacts to them. The evidence suggests Venezuela is not a part of an OPEC anti-competitive syndicate even though we show that Venezuelan oil production is low. An alternative explanation for why Venezuela and possibly other OPEC members have low oil production outputs is that institutions and risk aversion, not cartel participation, is the cause. A vector error correction model shows that there is no tendency for Venezuelan oil production to converge to OPEC's quota for Venezuela.

  7. OPEC and Venezuelan oil production: Evidence against a cartel hypothesis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reynolds, Douglas B.; Pippenger, Michael K.

    2010-01-01

    This study revisits the OPEC cartel hypothesis using a case study. A test is conducted to see if Venezuela has its production Granger cause its OPEC quota or whether the OPEC quota for Venezuela Granger causes Venezuelan production. The results show both occur at different times. In the short run, OPEC's oil production quota for Venezuela Granger causes Venezuelan production. However, shortly after cuts, Venezuela cheats on agreements, suggesting a tit-for-tat oligopoly game, which is not anti-competitive. In the long run, we show that Venezuelan oil production Granger causes OPEC's quota for Venezuela, but not vice versa. Having Venezuelan oil production Granger cause OPEC quotas for Venezuela in the long run suggests OPEC does not coordinate outputs as much as it reacts to them. The evidence suggests Venezuela is not a part of an OPEC anti-competitive syndicate even though we show that Venezuelan oil production is low. An alternative explanation for why Venezuela and possibly other OPEC members have low oil production outputs is that institutions and risk aversion, not cartel participation, is the cause. A vector error correction model shows that there is no tendency for Venezuelan oil production to converge to OPEC's quota for Venezuela.

  8. Measuring the security of energy exports demand in OPEC economies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dike, Jude Chukwudi

    2013-01-01

    One of the objectives of OPEC is the security of demand for the crude oil exports of its members. Achieving this objective is imperative with the projected decline in OECD countries' crude oil demand among other crude oil demand shocks. This paper focuses on determining the external crude oil demand security risks of OPEC member states. In assessing these risks, this study introduces two indexes. The first index, Risky Energy Exports Demand (REED), indicates the level of energy export demand security risks for OPEC members. It combines measures of export dependence, economic dependence, monopsony risk and transportation risk. The second index, Contribution to OPEC Risk Exposure (CORE), indicates the individual contribution of the OPEC members to OPEC's risk exposure. This study utilises the disaggregated index approach in measuring energy demand security risks for crude oil and natural gas and involves a country level analysis. With the disaggregated approach, the study shows that OPEC's energy export demand security risks differ across countries and energy types. - Highlights: • REED and CORE indexes are suitable measures for energy exports demand security risk. • The indexes show that energy demand security risk is different for each OPEC country. • The countries contribution to OPEC's energy demand security risk is also different. • The outcome is necessary for OPEC's common energy and climate change policies. • The outcome makes a case for oil demand security as a topical issue in the literature

  9. OPEC model : adjustment or new model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ayoub, A.

    1994-01-01

    Since the early eighties, the international oil industry went through major changes : new financial markets, reintegration, opening of the upstream, liberalization of investments, privatization. This article provides answers to two major questions : what are the reasons for these changes ? ; do these changes announce the replacement of OPEC model by a new model in which state intervention is weaker and national companies more autonomous. This would imply a profound change of political and institutional systems of oil producing countries. (Author)

  10. What does the future hold for OPEC?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2011-01-01

    The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) celebrated its 50. anniversary in September 2010. For half a century now, the cartel has succeeded in playing a major role on the energy market, despite divisions and changes. But today, its future is threatened, primarily in consequence of emerging alternative energies that are likely to blossom in the years to come due to rising crude oil prices

  11. OPEC ducks quota issue amid glut worries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1991-01-01

    This paper reports that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries has ducked the question of reestablishing quotas despite the looming prospect of a second quarter oil price slide. OPEC ministers meeting in Vienna late last month approved continuing free-for-all production in the first quarter and ordered the ministerial monitoring committee to tackle the question of second quarter production levels when it meets in Geneva Feb. 12. Oil markets responded to the lack of action by dropping futures prices

  12. Non-OPEC supply : delivering on growth

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lynch, M.C.

    2001-01-01

    This PowerPoint slide show included several graphs depicting petroleum issues dealing with non-OPEC oil supply. A forecast for 2001 was included with particular focus on changes in non-OPEC supply and annual change in non-OPEC supply to 2005. The author described ways in which to judge oil supply forecasts. The driving factors for the first approach are: investment drilling, depletion, and other factors such as natural gas prices, labor relations, and weather. The second approach to forecasting oil supply is policy driven, as in the case of Mexico and Russia, maturity driven as in the case of the United States, North Sea and Canada, and lastly, it is inertia driven. It was noted that since most oil is from aging reservoirs, depletion drivers should be carefully considered, including different types of production, such as onshore, offshore and horizontal wells. The author concluded with his prediction that we can expect much more oil unless prices are weak. There will likely be more activity in the petroleum industry which will be good for the oil service industry. He also predicted improvements in productivity. 3 tabs., 12 figs

  13. OPEC: Market failure or power failure?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cairns, Robert D.; Calfucura, Enrique

    2012-01-01

    The actions of OPEC and Saudi Arabia are discussed in terms of their objectives and their technical and social constraints. It is concluded (1) that OPEC does not act as a cartel and (2) that Hotelling’s rule is not an important feature of pricing or production. OPEC’s (more specifically, Saudi Arabia’s) ideal policy is to keep price moderate to try to assure a market for their high reserves over the long run. Such an action would require heavy investments in capacity, including in excess capacity, for times of interruption of supply from other countries as in the 1990s and for times of high demand as in the 2000s. The action may be inconsistent with other objectives and in any case may be too difficult to achieve. - Highlights: ► Hotelling models abstract from the essence of oil technology. ► Members of OPEC do not act as members of a classical cartel. ► Political–economic considerations influence objectives. ► The aim of Saudi Arabia, the price leader, is to keep price moderate. ► Supply was inelastic in the 2000s. Saudi investment was not adequate.

  14. OPEC's [Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries] learning process

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boussena, S.

    1994-01-01

    The new world oil market is distinguished by the level of uncertainty that surrounds trends in the price of crude oil. Although its influence has been diminished, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) remains a key player in this market and it is of interest to try to understand its current behaviour. A review is presented of OPEC market regulation, divergence and convergence around pricing issues, and OPEC's reactions to uncertainty, financing of additional production capacity and external competition, non-OPEC oil, alternative energy sources, and energy conservation. In the long term, OPEC has to choose, with the explicit and implicit accord of its other partners in the oil industry, between a relatively regulated market and a situation of total competition. There is the strong likelihood that in the future OPEC will not accept the role of unique regulator of the market and therefore of residual supplier when supply exceeds demand. 15 refs., 3 figs

  15. The oil market. Call on OPEC determines the oil price

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kingma, D.; Mulder, M.

    2001-01-01

    Several scenarios are applied to determine the oil price for the medium-long term, based on the so-called 'call on OPEC'. The 'call on OPEC' is part of the demand for oil which has to supplied by OPEC. It is expected that the nominal oil price will be circa $24 per barrel in 2004, based on a global growth of 4%. 2 refs

  16. Lenkungsmöglichkeiten und Marktmacht des OPEC-Kartells

    OpenAIRE

    Adolf, Jörg

    2002-01-01

    Mit hohen Rohölpreisen und einem neuen Lenkungsanspruch brachte eine wiedererstarkte OPEC die Ölverbraucher 2000/01 zum Zittern. Auch fundamentale Rohölmarkt-Daten deuten auf eine Verschiebung der Kräfteverhältnisse zu Gunsten der OPEC hin. Wie mächtig ist die OPEC tatsächlich? Wie ist die Marktmacht des OPEC-Kartells aus der Sicht der Markt- und Ordnungstheorie zu beurteilen? Welche Perspektiven ergeben sich daraus für die Rohölpreisentwicklung?

  17. OPEC's Dr. Subroto examines the market after Gulf war

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1991-01-01

    This paper reports on a relatively strong oil market emerging from the Persian Gulf war according to an Opec spokesperson. Opec is expected to remain a viable force, perhaps more cohesive than before, no matter what happens to Kuwait and Iraq

  18. The role of OPEC in the 1990s

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Subroto, Dr.

    1992-01-01

    The role of OPEC in the 1990's and beyond should grow steadily as supplies of non-OPEC oil stagnate and eventually diminish. The call on OPEC oil is expected to increase by 7.1 billion barrels per day by the end of the century. OPEC reserves have the potential to meet this increased demand, but the Organization's sustainable production capacity is currently well short of the forecast supply requirements. Major additional investment is needed, both upstream to maintain production from existing fields and to develop new fields, and downstream in modernization of refineries and tanker fleets and in meeting new environmental standards. Whilst accepting its responsibilities towards creating a cleaner, less wasteful and more energy efficient industry, OPEC is sceptical about the validity of sometimes contradictory claims about global warming and rejects the imposition of a carbon/energy tax as injudicious and unjust. OPEC would also urge that oil should not be unfairly discriminated against with respect to other energy sources and that environmental policies imposed by rich countries should not inhibit the economic aspirations of developing countries. Despite recent political upheavals and the depressed state of western economies, an increase in world oil demand in the larger term is foreseen with favourable market prospects for OPEC oil. Recent structural changes and changed attitudes augur well for future market stability, which has always been OPEC's prime objective. (U.K.)

  19. Reports of Opec's death have been greatly exaggerated

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Subroto

    1994-01-01

    The outgoing secretary-general of the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) gives an historical view of the organization since its formation in 1960. Despite criticism, over price increases and other policies, he maintains that OPEC has a continuing important role to play in the world economy. (UK)

  20. Does OPEC still exist as a cartel? An empirical investigation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bremond, Vincent; Hache, Emmanuel; Mignon, Valerie

    2010-11-01

    The aim of this paper is to determine if OPEC acts as a cartel by testing whether the production decisions of the different countries are coordinated and if they have an influence on oil prices. Relying on co-integration and causality tests in both time series and panel settings, our findings show that the OPEC influence has evolved through time, following the changes in the oil pricing system. While the influence of OPEC is found to be important just after the counter-oil shock, our results show that OPEC is price taker on the majority of the considered sub-periods. Finally, by dividing OPEC between savers and spenders, we show that it acts as a cartel mainly with a subgroup of its members. (authors)

  1. Oil production responses to price changes. An empirical application of the competitive model to OPEC and non-OPEC countries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ramcharran, Harri

    2002-01-01

    Falling oil prices over the last decade, accompanied by over-production by some OPEC members and the growth of non-OPEC supply, warrant further empirical investigation of the competitive model to ascertain production behavior. A supply function, based on a modification of Griffin's model, is estimated using data from 1973-1997. The sample period, unlike Griffin's, however, includes phases of price increase (1970s) and price decrease (1980s-1990s), thus providing a better framework for examining production behavior using the competitive model. The OPEC results do not support the competitive hypothesis; instead, a negative and significant price elasticity of supply is obtained. This result offers partial support for the target revenue theory. For most of the non-OPEC members, the estimates support the competitive model. OPEC's loss of market share and the drop in the share of oil-based energy should signal adjustments in price and quantity based on a competitive world market for crude oil

  2. The oil price and non-OPEC supplies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Seymour, A.

    1990-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to examine in detail a major supply development - that of non-OPEC oil in the 1970s and 1980s - in order to determine whether a part, if any, of the increase in non-OPEC production after the price shocks was unambiguously due to decisions and developments that preceded the price shocks. This 'historical' approach which examines facts in detail and in their exact chronology enables us to disaggregate the increase in non-OPEC production into two parts; one that is totally independent of the price shocks and one that could not be said in all certainty to have been influenced by the price rise. This study thus provides a maximalist answer to the question: 'How much of the increase is non-OPEC supplies was due to the price shocks?' Our main finding however is that the maximum amount that can be attributed to the price rise is but a fraction of the total supply increase. As a foundation on which to generalize on the effect of the oil price shocks on non-OPEC supplies as a whole, case studies on eighteen non-OPEC producers are presented. These are: the UK, Norway, Egypt, Mexico, Angola, Cameron, the Congo, Brazil, Colombia, Peru, Australia, India, the Federation of Malaysia, Oman, the USA, Canada, the USSR and China. Together, these countries have accounted for over 90% of total cumulative non-OPEC supply between 1974 and 1987, inclusive. (author)

  3. Expanding OPEC production capacity: some legal and environmental aspects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Al-Sahlawi, M.A.

    1992-01-01

    There is general consensus that the global demand for oil will increase in the medium-to-long term. It is predicted that much of this additional demand will be for OPEC oil. Therefore, it will become necessary to expand OPEC production capacity to meet this perceived increase. In recent years, many OPEC countries have launched far-reaching and, in some cases, radical plans to expand their production capacity. However, given the various investment and political constraints faced by the 13 OPEC Members, each country differs markedly in its ability to boost production capacity sufficiently to meet self-imposed targets. In this paper, we examine the importance to the oil market of recent oil supply trends and possible future attempts to build OPEC production capacity, focussing in particular on the legal and environmental issues involved. A review is provided of the legal mechanisms currently evolving in OPEC Countries to encourage investment in their oil industries. In addition, we outline the impact of the environmental movement of OPEC's expansion programmes. (author)

  4. Economic repercussions of OPEC's crude oil price increases

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Merklein, H A

    1980-05-01

    Accusations that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) created the world energy crisis and destroyed the economies of oil-importing nations are challenged by Dr. Merklein. He shows that the economic impact of OPEC price increases have only accelerated an already-developing energy shortage and only reflect the existing problems of inflation, unemployment, and declining currency exchange rates. The real problem is argued to be a US energy policy that is incapable of responding appropriately to what should be a manageable crude oil tax. When the arguments against OPEC policies are examined in an historical context, they are shown to be essentially neutral. 4 tables. (DCK)

  5. OPEC and the turning over of the petroleum market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2002-01-01

    Since 1999, the OPEC has reinforced its quotas policy for the petroleum offer with the objective of a price of 22/28 US$/b. From September 1999 to September 2001, the OPEC had reached its target, but the economical impact of the September 11, 2001 terror events have led to a price evolution inferior to the expected one. However, one can think that these events have just accelerate an inevitable process which would have constrain the OPEC to abandon its hardly sustainable pricing policy. (J.S.)

  6. OPEC: 10 years after the Arab oil boycott

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cooper, M.H.

    1983-09-23

    OPEC's dominance over world oil markets is waning 10 years after precipitating world-wide energy and economic crises. The 1979 revolution in Iran and the start of the Iranian-Iraqi war in 1980 introduced a second shock that caused oil importers to seek non-OPEC supplies and emphasize conservation. No breakup of the cartel is anticipated, however, despite internal disagreements over production and price levels. Forecasters see OPEC as the major price setter as an improved economy increases world demand for oil. Long-term forecasts are even more optimistic. 24 references, 2 figures, 2 tables. (DCK)

  7. The dynamic stability of OPEC's oil price mechanism

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hammoudeh, S.; Madan, V.

    1992-01-01

    This paper examines OPEC's long-lived mechanism which targets the oil price and adjusts the quality ceiling to meet the target. The stability of this controversial mechanism is compared to that of two alternatives: one requires quantity control without any price targeting and the other is a synthesis of quantity control and the OPEC mechanisms. All three mechanisms passed the stability test and the two alternatives give rise to some interesting policy implications. Practicality considerations which involve the availability of specific information make OPEC's mechanism the most appropriate in terms of achieved targeted revenues. The paper also offers a convergence strategy that speeds up the achievement of targeted revenues under OPEC's current mechanism. (author)

  8. Integration : OPEC is now in 35 foreign refineries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Terzian, P.

    1994-01-01

    Seven countries from OPEC own now share holdings in 35 foreign refineries. By this process of downstream reintegration, these countries hope to reach a better stability of crude oil prices. (Author). 3 tabs

  9. OPEC production ceilings and quotas: an analytical review

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bakhtiari, A.M.S.

    1992-01-01

    After the onset of Gulf hostilities in August 1990, oil production, equivalent to some five million barrels per day, dried up. With two major exporters, Iraq and Kuwait, out of contention, other OPEC Members were suddenly free to produce and export at will. For the rest of 1990 and the whole of 1991, the issue of quotas was put on the backburner. Hence, the present analytical paper on past OPEC production quota agreements has been prepared. It is an attempt to correlate individual OPEC quotas with meaningful and tangible variables, using a curve-fitting computer programme. The main endeavour in this project is to find either a theoretical or an empirical basis for the generation of OPEC quotas. (author)

  10. OPEC announcements and their effects on crude oil prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lin, Sharon Xiaowen; Tamvakis, Michael

    2010-01-01

    We investigate evidence on the effects of OPEC announcements on world oil prices by examining announcements from both official conferences and ministerial meetings on major international crudes, including the key benchmarks and several other heavy and light grades. With data from 1982 to 2008, we use event study methodology and find differentiation in the magnitude and significance of market responses to OPEC quota decisions under different price bands. We also find some (weak) evidence of differentiation between light and heavy crude grades. (author)

  11. Assessment of OPEC's oil pricing policy from 1970 to 2000

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kazim, A.

    2007-01-01

    The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is an international organization, composed of eleven developing countries that rely on oil revenues as their main source of income. The member countries include: Algeria, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Venezuela. These member countries collectively supply approximately 40 per cent of the world's oil output, and possess more than three-quarters of the world's total proven crude oil reserves. Currently, OPEC's approximate rate of oil production and export is 25 million barrels per day with Saudi Arabia alone contributing about one third of this rate. However, in the recent years the economy of major OPEC countries mainly Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, Algeria, Indonesia and Iran has been significantly hindered by the instability of oil price as a result of fluctuations in the American dollar. This paper presented a simple economical assessment of OPEC's oil pricing policy from 1970 to 2000. Fluctuations of the oil price in American dollars were analysed against other major currencies. Their influences on the generated revenues were determined. In order to explore the most advantageous scenario, the oil pricing policy during that period was compared with two baskets of currencies. It was concluded that results indicated that OPEC members could have achieved a total current savings of at least 170 billion dollars if the price of oil was linked to a basket of currencies from 1970 to 2000. These savings were approximately equivalent to the revenues generated in at least 1 year of OPEC's average rate of oil production and export. It was recommended that OPEC members should consider restructuring their oil pricing policy by taking effective measures such as linking the price of oil to a basket of currencies in order to stabilize the price of oil and secure stable revenue generated from their oil production and export. 17 refs., 1 tab., 4 figs

  12. OPEC Middle East plans for rising world demand amid uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ismail, I.A.H.

    1996-01-01

    The Middle Eastern members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries must plan for huge increases in oil production capacity yet wonder whether markets for the new output will develop as expected. With worldwide oil consumption rising and non-OPEC output likely to reach its resource limits soon, OPEC member countries face major gains in demand for their crude oil. To meet the demand growth, those with untapped resources will have to invest heavily in production capacity. Most OPEC members with such resources are in the Middle East. But financing the capacity investments remains a challenge. Some OPEC members have opened up to foreign equity participation in production projects, and others may eventually do so as financial pressures grow. That means additions to the opportunities now available to international companies in the Middle East. Uncertainties, however, hamper planning and worry OPEC. Chief among them are taxation and environmental policies of consuming-nation governments. This paper reviews these concerns and provides data on production, pricing, capital investment histories and revenues

  13. Oil Regime Change in Iraq. Possible Strategic Implications for OPEC

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boon Von Ochssee, T.A.

    2006-06-01

    The potential strategic impact of regime change in Iraq and Iran on OPEC in the long-run is explored. In the first part of the paper short overviews are given of the present international oil market; of US oil import issues and energy policy; of the strategic position of the US in the Persian Gulf and of geopolitical developments in the Persian Gulf at large. Also, attention is paid to the OPEC and the role of a 'new' Iraq. In the second part the game of 'boxed pigs' is used to explore the possible strategic impact of regime change in Iraq and possible regime change in Iran on OPEC. This exploration takes place within four possible futures for the Gulf

  14. OPEC oil production and market fundamentals: a causality relationship

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dahmani, A.; Al-Osaimy, M.H.

    2001-01-01

    This paper first establishes a statistical measurement for OPEC Member Countries' compliance levels with their respective quotas and then examines the correlations and the casual relationships between compliance levels and oil market fundamentals. The compliance level is measured by the deviation of the production level from the respective quota for OPEC Member Countries, and this is based on the Euclidean distance formula, while oil market fundamentals are represented by OECD oil demand and stock levels, and the OPEC Basket price and oil supply. Monthly data from January 1996 to June 2000 was used and two sub-periods considered, where the first sub-period was characterized by a low level of compliance and the second by a high level. The analytical results of correlations and causality showed different directions of relationships between compliance levels and oil market fundamentals. (author)

  15. Stability factors for OPEC and the oil market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yousfi, Y.

    1991-01-01

    The nationalizations of the 1970s, as well as the 1973 and 1979 sharp price increases which heightened OPEC's notoriety, considerably exaggerated the organization's image of strength, power, and dominance. In contrast, the 1980s-which witnesses the murderous war between two OPEC founding members, the shrinkage of the energy market, the emergence of new oil exporters, the dramatic price collapse in early 1986, and acute economic crises in a great number of member countries-have framed OPEC as a weak and powerless organization, incapable of enforcing any discipline or establishing any dialogue with its competitors. This paper reports that in this period of market depression, the end of a cartel-or at best its breaking apart-became common talk as too much emphasis was placed on the deep antagonisms between the rich, less populated member countries and those with dense population and relatively low income

  16. OPEC fund will continue to play it vital role

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hurtado, H

    1986-09-01

    An interview elicits personal views on the role of and issues related to the OPEC Fund from one of those responsible for its founding. Hurtado comments that the Fund is not likely to change direction, although it accepts the agricultural and industrial development priorities of recipients. He also notes a weakness in the International Fund for Agricultural Development. A shortfall of income as Member Countries respond to falling oil prices will require some management changes in the future, but he sees greater unity among OPEC and Third World countries as a result of current economic strains. The industrialized world, which has provided only one sixth as much aid as OPEC, could apply its savings from current low import prices to help developing countries. North-South cooperation is cyclical, and he expects the current situation to have a positive effect on cooperation.

  17. Challenging OPEC: World oil market projections, 1992-2007

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reinsch, A.E.; Considine, J.E.

    1992-01-01

    A number of alternatives to the scenario of continued OPEC cooperation and adherence to a low price/ high volume market strategy favoured by Saudi Arabia, were examined. The strategy of continued solidarity in support of a stable price path was considered to be ultimately most favorable to all OPEC members, however, there were two uncertainties to contend with: (1) the speed and timing of recovery of both production and product demand within the former Soviet Union, and (2) the outcome of the energy-economy-environment debate in which the international community was engaged. The study showed that OPEC could find itself caught in the vise of rising product prices and weak or declining crude prices, a situation from which it would be extremely difficult, if not impossible, to extricate itself. figs., tabs., refs

  18. The oil price and non-OPEC supplies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Seymour, A.

    1991-01-01

    The design of any effective oil pricing policy by producers depends on a knowledge of the nature and complexity of supply responses. This book examines the development of non-OPEX oil reserves on a field-by-filed basis to determine how much of the increase in non-OPEC production could be attributable to the price shocks and how much was unambiguously due to decisions and developments that preceded the price shocks. Results are presented in eighteen case-studies of non-OPEC producers. This study will be of interest to economists and planners specializing in the upstream and to policy makers both in oil producing and consuming countries

  19. OPEC production: Capital limitations, environmental movements may interfere with expansion plans

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ismail, I.A.H.

    1994-01-01

    Obtaining capital is a critical element in the production expansion plans of OPEC member countries. Another issue that may impact the plans is the environmental taxes that may reduce the call on OPEC oil by 5 million b/d in 2000 and about 16 million b/d in the year 2010. This concluding part of a two-part series discusses the expansion possibilities of non-Middle East OPEC members, OPEC's capital requirements, and environmental concerns. Non-Middle East OPEC includes Algeria, Gabon, Indonesia, Libya, Nigeria, and Venezuela

  20. Financial difficulties lead OPEC countries on the prices correction way

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1994-01-01

    The financial difficulties of OPEC countries are going to lead them to correct the petroleum prices. In front of a decreasing since 1992, it is necessary to make them grow of about $1 the barrel. It is the principal conclusion of Bali meeting for next months even perhaps for next years

  1. Essays on the behavior of the oil market and OPEC

    Science.gov (United States)

    Algudhea, Salim

    This dissertation consists of three essays. The first essay is mainly concerned with investigating the risk-responsive behavior of OPEC members. Economic theory suggests that producers respond to the risk of volatile price by lowering production level. In the case of OPEC, the risk of the volatility in the price of crude oil does not seem to be a key determinant in the production decision-making process. Engineering constraints, data frequency, and political consideration may be the main causes of such a result. In the second essay, we tested the presence of the asymmetric adjustment in the cheating behavior as a result of crude oil price shocks. We utilize a set of cointegration and error correction methods that do not assume a linear adjustment to test whether cheaters within OPEC respond more to positive or negative crude oil price shocks. We conclude that cheaters respond more to negative shocks than positive shocks in oil price. The inelastic nature of demand for oil seems to play a crucial role in such asymmetric behavior. When there is a negative price shock, OPEC producers compensate for the loss in revenue by overproducing (i.e. cheat). Yet, if there is a positive shock in the price of crude oil, OPEC producers have less incentive to overproduce because of the inelastic demand for oil. The third essay is concerned with testing for the asymmetric adjustment in gasoline prices in the U.S. We consider a Momentum Threshold Autoregressive (MTAR) process to test for the asymmetric adjustment in all of the possible stages that a gallon of gasoline goes through in order to find the source of asymmetry. Then, we examine the dynamics of gasoline prices using asymmetric error correction models based on the MTAR specifications. We find the asymmetric adjustment present in all stages. The asymmetry in the retail stage seems to be the result of insufficient demand faced by retailers.

  2. OPEC in the new petroleum context: what strategy to follow

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boussena, S.

    1993-01-01

    How to judge the current strategic behaviour of OPEC. The criteria established in the seventies no longer hold, when we try to answer this question. That is, it seems that the OPEC, having drawn the lessons from its own experience, is beginning to adapt its strategy to the new world petroleum situation. Schematically speaking, the organization has a choice between two broad options: (i) It may behave like a dominant producer whose main objective is to increase its share of a 'contestable' market by favoring low prices and sustaining a high level of uncertainty about how those prices will evolve in the future; or (ii) it may on the contrary look for a gradual and a stable rise in its receipts by trying to establish a certain level of predictability in prices and production. 14 refs., 6 figs., 5 tabs

  3. Role of the OPEC Secretariat in energy research

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Azarnia, F

    1981-08-01

    The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, OPEC, was formed in 1960 by five Founding Members, namely: Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and Venezuela. The principal aim was ''coordination and unification of the petroleum policies of Member Countries and the determination of the best means of safeguarding their interests, individually and collectively''. Since then, eight more countries - Algeria, Ecuador, Gabon, Indonesia, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates - have joined the organization as ''Full Members'', bringing the total membership to thirteen countries. This brief presentation explains the structure of OPEC and gives a broad outline of the many problems that are of interest to the Organization and are studied by the technical staff of its Secretariat.

  4. The future of national oil Companies of OPEC

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Subroto.

    1994-01-01

    OPEC countries are dependent on their National Oil Companies for international trade, economy, technology transfer and social planning. With low oil prices, increasing demand and worsened financial and economic status, time has come to give priority to two major issues necessary for health existence and growth of our national oil companies : cost reduction through the application of new technologies and less support from public funds ; planning for future markets beyond national borders, particularly developing countries. (Author)

  5. Modeling OPEC behavior: theories of risk aversion for oil producer decisions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reynolds, D.B.

    1999-01-01

    Theories of OPEC such as price leadership, cartel, or game theoretic models suggest an incentive for OPEC members to expand their production capacity well above current levels in order to maximize revenues. Yet individual OPEC members consistently explore for and develop oil fields at a level well below their potential. The cause of low oil exploration and development efforts among OPEC members, and even some non-OPEC members, may have to do with risk aversion. This paper describes an alternative theory for OPEC behavior based on risk aversion using a two piece non-Neumann-Morgenstern utility function similar to Fishburn and Koehenberger (1979, Decision Science 10, 503-518), and Friedman and Savage (1948, Journal of political Economy 56). The model shows possible low oil production behavior. (author)

  6. Economic Models of OPEC Behaviour and the Role of Saudi Arabia

    OpenAIRE

    Nourah A. Al-Yousef

    1998-01-01

    Previous studies of OPEC have suggested ways of explaining the behaviour of OPEC as a group. The specific role of Saudi Arabia in the market and within OPEC has received attention from some authors. This study analyses the role of Saudi Arabia in these models and tries to find how much they explain the role of Saudi Arabia in the period from 1973 to the present. Models of OPEC behaviour are divided into four sets. The first set of models does not address the role of Saudi Arabia; they include...

  7. A Game Theory Analysis of the OPEC's Influence on World Oil Price

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2006-01-01

    Most studies concerning OPEC's behavior were based on traditional market microstructure. However, the assumptions about oil market structure are either very rigorous or rather fuzzy. This paper demonstrates the rationality and necessity of OPEC's price band policy by using the game theory. We conclude that OPEC has the incentive to limit its price within a specific range if the game period is sufficiently long. This incentive comes either from preference for long-term interest or from future expectations. In such a way, OPEC tries its best to maximize its profit with the quotaprice dual policy and plays a price stabilizing role in the future world oil market.

  8. Does OPEC act as a cartel? Empirical investigation of coordination behavior

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kisswani, Khalid M.

    2016-01-01

    In this paper I use quarterly and monthly data from 1994 to 2014 to test if OPEC acts as a cartel, and therefore, it affects oil prices through members' coordination. I use Engle and Granger two-step approach, Johansen cointegration test and Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach of cointegration to examine the long-run relation between OPEC production and each member's production as an evidence of coordination. Besides, I apply Granger causality and Toda and Yamamoto tests to check the direction of causality between the OPEC production and oil prices (U.K. Brent and Dubai Fateh). The findings show no evidence of cointegration between the production of the members and that of OPEC, indicating no cartel behavior exists. Moreover, the results show that OPEC production does not cause oil prices; rather it is the other way around. - Highlights: • I test if OPEC acts as a cartel; it affects oil prices through members' coordination. • I use cointegration to examine long run relation between OPEC production and member's production. • I test causality between the OPEC production and oil prices. • The findings show no evidence of cointegration indicating no cartel behavior exists. • The results show OPEC production does not cause oil prices; rather it is the other way around.

  9. The oil at 50$: reserves depletion or OPEC revenge?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Noel, P.

    2005-06-01

    Although the oil price is still far from its historical maximum, the oil market is today in crisis. To explain this situation the author discusses the nature of the supply constraints. The reserves are today better known and so more plentiful than at a previous period of the oil history and the russian production since 2004 is stagnating. The main factor seems to be the OPEC policy and in particular the will of limiting the oil production to defend upper prices. (A.L.B.)

  10. Non-OPEC oil supply continues to grow

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Knapp, D.H.

    1995-01-01

    Global reserves of crude oil remain at 1 trillion bbl, according to OGJ's annual survey of producing countries. Significant gains are in Brazil, Colombia, Congo, Egypt, Libya, Nigeria, Oman, and Papua New Guinea. Decreases were reported by Indonesia, Norway, the U.K., Iran, Canada, Mexico, and the US. Natural gas reserves slipped to 4.9 quadrillion cu ft. The major production trend is a lasting surge from outside of OPEC. This year's Worldwide Production report begins with a detailed analysis of this crucial development by an international authority. This article discusses the OECD outlook by region and the turnaround in production in the former Soviet Union

  11. 1990s bright for post-OPEC Ecuador

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1993-01-01

    Ecuador, in its first full year outside the fold of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, stands poised for a significant expansion of production in the 1990s. While preparing for Ecuador's eventual withdrawal from OPEC last fall, the government since early summer 1992 has moved quickly to approve a number of key development projects. It was, perhaps, no coincidence that the most important conference on Ecuadorian petroleum prospects in recent years was timed to coincide with the government's public confirmation of the pullout. All foreign companies operating in Ecuador attended, with details disclosed of projects planned or under way. This article summarizes these projects and other key issues raised at the conference

  12. The effect of OPEC policy decisions on oil and stock prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guidi, Marco G.D.; Russell, Alexander; Tarbert, Heather

    2006-01-01

    This paper presents evidence of the effects of OPEC policy decisions on the US and UK stock markets, as well as on oil prices, during periods of conflict and non-conflict from 1986 to 2004. The outcomes of this study are potentially valuable in assessing future strategies for OPEC policy decisions on oil production targets for its Members. This paper also adds to the strong body of evidence supporting the hypothesis that market returns are influenced by factors that affect business conditions, such as oil price shocks. The key findings are that there are asymmetric reactions to OPEC policy decisions during conflict periods for the US and UK stock markets. During conflict periods, oil markets require time to incorporate OPEC decisions. Conversely, in non-conflict periods the evidence suggests that the oil markets incorporate OPEC decisions efficiently. (Author)

  13. The oil market towards 2030 - can OPEC combine high oil price with high market share

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aune, Finn Roar; Glomsroed, Solveig; Lindholt, Lars; Rosendahl, Knut Einar

    2005-01-01

    In this paper we examine within a partial equilibrium model for the oil market whether OPEC can combine high oil prices with a high market share. The oil market model explicitly accounts for reserves, development and production in 4 field categories across 13 regions. Oil companies may invest in new field development or alternatively on improved oil recovery in the decline phase of fields in production. Non-OPEC production is profit-driven, whereas OPEC meets the residual call for OPEC oil at a pre-specified oil price, while maintaining a surplus capacity. The model is run over a range of exogenous oil prices from 15 to 60 $ per barrel. Sustained high oil prices stimulate Non-OPEC production, but its remaining reserves gradually diminish despite new discoveries. Oil demand is only slightly affected by higher prices. Thus, OPEC is able to keep and eventually increase its current market share beyond 2010 even with oil prices around $30 per barrel. In fact, the model simulations indicate that an oil price around $40 is profitable for OPEC, even in the long term. Sensitivity analyses show that the most profitable price level for OPEC is generally above $35 per barrel. Even with several factors working jointly in OPEC's disfavour, the oil price seems to stick to the 30 $ level. Thus, for OPEC there is a trade-off between high prices and high market share in the short to medium term, but not in the long term. For OECD countries, on the other hand, there is a clear trade-off between low oil prices and low import dependence. (Author)

  14. Strategies for OPEC's pricing decisions. [Using model of world energy market

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gately, D; Kyle, J F; Fischer, D

    1977-11-01

    A model of the world energy market that incorporates price expectations and lagged adjustments of demand and supply is used to examine implications of various price-paths that could be selected by OPEC. After demonstrating the sensitivity of the results to changes in functional specifications and certain parameter values, the authors discuss a variety of rule-of-thumb pricing strategies under which OPEC sets prices in response to available market signals. A strategy that is relatively cautious about further major price increases serves OPEC relatively well in comparison with other stategies, but there exists a real possibility of major, abrupt price increases within the next ten years.

  15. Does a target-capacity utilization rule fulfill OPEC's economic objectives?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Suranovic, S.M.

    1993-01-01

    This paper uses the United States (US) Energy Information Administration's Oil Market Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries Simulation model to evaluate the ability of a target-capacity rule to satisfy OPEC's economic objectives. We show that when demand and supply lags exist OPEC's optimal price path may consist of periods of low prices followed by a one or two period price shock. The TCU rule does not display periodic price shocks and thus generates less discounted revenue over the planning period. The TCU rule comes closest to the optimum either when there are no lags or when OPEC optimizes subject to a minimum revenue constraint. (author)

  16. Russia and the 'Gas-Opec'. Real or perceived threat?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Finon, D.

    2007-01-01

    he threat of a gas-OPEC, waved around by certain big producers, has given rise to much fear in consuming countries. The behavior of Russia, a key exporter, has made it seem as though gas sales could be used as a political weapon. In truth, the creation of an entente between exporting countries is not technically feasible. What is more, Russia remains reticent to join any association in order not to limit its room for maneuver. Seeking to dominate the world market, it has singed a certain number of agreements with other big producers. Nevertheless, the capitalistic constraints of the gas market jeopardize the chances of long-term coordination, which is incompatible with short-term political interests. (author)

  17. Ecuador to withdraw from OPEC; group to maintain present flow

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1992-01-01

    This paper reports that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, which has agreed to maintain its present combined production of 24.2 million b/d of oil in the fourth quarter, will soon see the first pullout of a member. The 13 member group will shrink to 12, probably in November, when Ecuador withdraws. Ecuador President Sixto Duran Ballen issued notice of the pullout Sept. 17, a little more than 1 month after he took office. Ecuador, strapped for cash, wants to save OPEC membership dues reported to be $2-3 million/year. It plans to remain an associate member, although it wasn't immediately clear what that means. No other countries are regarded as associate members

  18. OPEC and the international oil market: can a cartel fuel the engine of economic development?

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Noguera, Jose; Pecchenino, R. A.

    2007-01-01

    Roč. 25, č. 1 (2007), s. 187-199 ISSN 0167-7187 Institutional research plan: CEZ:MSM0021620846 Keywords : OPEC * International oil market * oil export Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 0.464, year: 2007

  19. The shift in US oil demand and its impact on OPEC's market share

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jabir, I.

    2001-01-01

    Tremendous political pressure is being exerted on the US government by different political parties to diversify its sources of foreign oil supplies by switching from the reliance on OPEC's oil to that originating from non-OPEC nations. Without a doubt, such a shift would adversely impact the market share of some OPEC members, particularly Saudi Arabia, Venezuela and Nigeria. These countries should therefore consider seriously the negative impact of this scenario and consequently formulate individual or joint production policies aiming at protecting their oil market share. To help OPEC achieve this objective, there is a need to estimate the demand function of US oil imports. This paper proffers an estimate of such a function, taking into account, among other variables, the impact of US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR)

  20. OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) annual statistical bulletin, 1987

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1987-01-01

    Following upon the traumatic events which characterized the international oil markets in 1986, when crude prices plunged in mid-year to below $10.00 a barrel, 1987 began auspiciously foe OPEC's unremitting efforts to restore stability to the price scene. The Organization's decision in December 1986, to return to a fixed-price system for crude at an average of $18.00 a barrel, and agreed production levels for individual Member Countries, and for OPEC as a whole, undoubtly served to steer the oil industry away from the unprecedented turbulence of 1986 into calmer waters in the new year. The $18-a-barrel price was welcomed and regarded as being sustainable, both for OPEC and non-OPEC oil producers, and for the suppliers of other forms of energy. And in the early months of 1987, OPEC's strategy proved manifestly successful: prices rose dramatically, reaching levels equal to, and sometimes surpassing OPEC's reference price. Its credibility restored, the Organization looked forward to making progress towards its goal of sustainable oil prices in a stable environment. But the oil market is a highly sensitive barometer, which reacts quickly to the slightest pressure. Alas, in the second half of the year, disturbing trends emerged, indicating that the healthy upward movement of prices was being undermined: over-supply, fed by increased production on the part of non-OPEC producers, accelerated oil stock build-up by consumers are a time of increased tension in the Gulf, and, unfortunately, over-production on the part of some OPEC Members, combined to threaten the new-won stability.

  1. Proposed currency composite approach to pricing OPEC oil: problems and possibilities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shaaf, M.B.

    1982-01-01

    The primary purpose of this dissertation was to explore the nature, purposes, benefits, and barriers of establishing a currency basket for OPEC as an alternative to the use the dollar for international trade in oil. The study included the construction and evaluation of three alternative currency baskets and the evaluation of two other baskets for the protection of the real price of OPEC oil from foreign-exchange fluctuations between 1971 and 1980. A secondary objective was to assess the inflationary impact on the real price of oil. Finally, the purpose was to evaluate the changes of the terms of trade of OPEC during the same period. The findings of the research are as follows: During 1971-1980, inflation and the relative weakness of the dollar have reduced the real price of oil to OPEC. In spite of this, the terms of trade of OPEC have substantially improved. This was because OPEC increased its oil prices much more than sufficient to compensate for inflation and the fluctuation of foreign-exchange rates.

  2. Advanced neuroblastoma: improved response rate using a multiagent regimen (OPEC) including sequential cisplatin and VM-26.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shafford, E A; Rogers, D W; Pritchard, J

    1984-07-01

    Forty-two children, all over one year of age, were given vincristine, cyclophosphamide, and sequentially timed cisplatin and VM-26 (OPEC) or OPEC and doxorubicin (OPEC-D) as initial treatment for newly diagnosed stage III or IV neuroblastoma. Good partial response was achieved in 31 patients (74%) overall and in 28 (78%) of 36 patients whose treatment adhered to the chemotherapy protocol, compared with a 65% response rate achieved in a previous series of children treated with pulsed cyclophosphamide and vincristine with or without doxorubicin. Only six patients, including two of the six children whose treatment did not adhere to protocol, failed to respond, but there were five early deaths from treatment-related complications. Tumor response to OPEC, which was the less toxic of the two regimens, was at least as good as tumor response to OPEC-D. Cisplatin-induced morbidity was clinically significant in only one patient and was avoided in others by careful monitoring of glomerular filtration rate and hearing. Other centers should test the efficacy of OPEC or equivalent regimens in the treatment of advanced neuroblastoma.

  3. High oil prices: A non-OPEC capacity game

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Osmundsen, Petter; Asche, Frank; Misund, Baard; Mohn, Klaus

    2005-08-01

    The current high oil price is partly due to low investments in the oil industry the last decade. According to economic theory, exploration and development of new oil and gas fields should respond positively to increasing petroleum prices. But since the late 1990s, financial analysts have focused strongly on short-term accounting return measures, like RoACE, for benchmarking and valuation of international oil and gas companies. Consequently, the demand for strict capital discipline among oil and gas companies may have reduced their willingness to invest for future reserves and production growth. Thus, we have experienced an unusual combination of high oil prices and low investment levels in exploration and development. In many ways, the oil companies' focus on RoACE, at the expense of reserve replacement, resembles an implicit co-ordination on low capacity among non-OPEC petroleum producers. This is a partial explanation of the current high oil prices. By examining actual parameters used by the financial markets in pricing of oil companies, we address the issue of whether the low investment outcome could represent a long-term equilibrium. This is hardly likely, as oil companies are made aware that stronger emphasis is put on reserve replacement. (Author)

  4. Non-OPEC Oil Supply: Economics and Energy Policy Options

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mourik, Maarten van [Paris (France); Shepherd, Richard K. [Perpignan (France)

    2003-07-01

    Apart from the enigmatic FSU, there is little prospect of long term growth for non-OPEC oil supply and a strong likelihood that over the next few years the trend will flatten and then decline irrevocably. Decline will come faster if the spectacular discoveries in the deep water offshore plays of the southern Atlantic and the Gulf of Mexico attract sufficient investment to match the loss of production in the North Sea. Deep water oil supply might be expected to reach a peak of as much as 6-7 million barrels a day by the time the North Sea has lost more than half its current output in the period beyond 2010. But economics play as strong a role as geology in real world oil business. Current indicators suggest that the prolific deep water wells are delivering less oil than expected and for a shorter period. That means less revenue. This paper outlines the disappointing performance of recent offshore fields, in both deep water and conventional water depths, and suggests consequences for global supply in the next decade. The 30 year success story of non-OPEC oil supply stems directly from the oil price revolution of the 1970s, without which the North Sea and most other offshore oil plays would not have been economic. The non-OPEC oil boom was also necessary because access to the cheap oil of the Persian Gulf and a few other plays were simply not available to the international private sector oil industry, as they had been before. That era is now over. It is ending not because oil is too cheap, but because there are powerful reasons for change. Firstly there is not enough oil left to make a difference beyond the next few years. Secondly, the economics of deep water and other offshore oil may not be attractive enough. Thirdly the doors to the Middle East are now being opened again to companies that can write those assets on their balance sheets and generate profits, allowing better return on investment and their higher share prices. There is no more compelling reason for a

  5. The influence of South Korean energy policy on OPEC oil exports

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Almansoori, Ali

    2014-01-01

    South Korea is the fifth top oil importer worldwide with 64% of its oil coming from OPEC member countries. Over the last 30 years, South Korea accounted for a rapid increase in energy use. This in turn led South Korea to be totally dependent on oil imports. Due to this increase, South Korea has been experiencing drastic changes in its energy system which could potentially impact its dependence on OPEC oil import. External and internal factors have forced South Korea to change its energy strategy and targets. These targets would be achieved by reducing its energy intensity and utilizing electricity and renewable energies in order to reduce its dependence on oil consumption. “Low Carbon, Green Growth” is one policy along with many other energy policies developed by South Korea for reducing greenhouse gases, thus this policy is receiving a remarkable attention today. These national policies along with other international ones are needed to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions and promote other green initiatives. This study puts emphasis on these policies as well as uses them to predict the future energy profile of South Korea and how these policies will impact on oil imports from OPEC member countries. - Highlights: • Analyze energy policy of South Korea and its energy profiles. • Study the factors that affect South Korea to change its energy strategy and targets. • Analyze the implications of South Korean energy policy on oil imports from OPEC. • South Korea will continue importing oil from OPEC countries for the next decade

  6. OPEC and the world oil prices: Is the genie back in the bottle

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Griffin, J.M.

    1992-01-01

    After reviewing and analyzing OPEC's behavior in the past two decades, a simulation model is employed to explore plausible paths for oil prices. OPEC's members are subdivided into analytically convenient maximizing groups. Lener index analysis is applied to measure observed market power and the potential monopoly power for the cartel core. Price paths for the 1990s under alternative OPEC configurations are presented, and it is suggested that the return to monopolization is large. Price levels of the 1970s were not sustainable even with a perfectly disciplined cartel core. Long run supply and demand elasticities were much greater than OPEC expected. Even though cheating contributed to OPEC's predicament in the 1980s, the primary determinant of oil price decline was external market forces. Future price instability is possible for both political and economic reasons, with a likely scenario of prices oscillating around the cartel core's optimum price path that features prices in the present range rising moderately. 8 refs., 6 tabs., 3 figs

  7. The changing structure of the international oil industry: implications for OPEC

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abdalla, K.L.; )

    1995-01-01

    This paper examines the changes in international oil market structure observed in the 1980s and early 1990s and assesses possible effects on oil market conditions in the future and implications for OPEC. It focuses on the trend toward a more vertical organization mainly resulting from substantial purchases of downstream assets by state owned oil companies in major oil producing countries. While the Gulf war prevented greater horizontal concentration of oil reserves, it merely interrupted the trend toward vertical concentration in the international oil industry. The vertical integration of only some of the OPEC members will cause a further divergence of goals within the organization resulting in a lower likelihood of OPEC regaining its former position as an effective cartel. If the trend toward greater vertical concentration increases, future oil prices will, in part, be affected by decisions made by vertically integrated firms. (author)

  8. Joint IEA-OPEC workshop on CO2-enhanced oil recovery with CCS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2012-07-01

    The IEA and OPEC jointly organised a workshop to discuss CO2-EOR and its role in supporting the early demonstration of CCS. The workshop was hosted by Kuwait Petroleum Corporation, and held in Kuwait City on 7-8 February 2012. It brought together OPEC Member country experts and international CO2-EOR experts to discuss commercial, economic, technical, regulatory and policy aspects associated with the technology. Issues discussed include factors that can promote CO2-EOR ahead of ''pure'' CCS, barriers preventing uptake of the technology,and the range of policy interventions that could be employed to promote its use in OPEC Member countriesand other parts of the world. This report presents a synthesis of the discussions that took place, and lays the foundation for future analysis.

  9. Using commodity-indexed financing to fund OPEC/Alaska's development projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Essayyad, Musa

    1992-01-01

    An impediment to the process of economic diversification in OPEC and Alaska is the lack of favourable access to local and international capital markets to finance development projects, particularly mineral resource development. This paper highlights the importance of commodity-indexed bonds, including oil- and gold- indexed bonds, as a financing alternative to supplement the supply shortage of loanable funds from conventional, local and international commercial banks. The indexation concept is discussed, features of different bonds issued to date are contrasted and the benefits and risks for borrowers and investors are highlighted. An analysis is made of the experience of OPEC and Alaska in using commodity-indexed bonds and the feasibility of Alaska and some OPEC countries entering into commodity-linked-financed joint ventures is examined. Future prospects for commodity-linked bonds are explored. Not withstanding the fact that the immediate market timing is unfavourable, the long-term benefits of commodity-indexed securities are recognized. (U.K.)

  10. DEMAND FOR OIL PRODUCTS IN OPEC COUNTRIES: A PANEL COINTEGRATION ANALYSIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nourah Al Yousef

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The increasing consumption of oil-refined products on OPEC countries will have its impact on the availability of oil exports. The goal of this paper is to examine the determinants of oil refined products’ consumption for a panel consisting of 7 OPEC countries, namely, Algeria, Kuwait, Libya, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Emirates and Iran for the period of 1980–2010, by employing the recently developed panel data unit root tests and panel data cointegration techniques. Furthermore, conditional on finding cointegration, the paper extends the literature by employing the Pedroni Panel Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS Dynamic OLS (DOLS procedure to generate. The study estimates the demand for Gasoline, Kerosene and Diesel. An attempt is also made to assess the impact of this demand on the future availability of OPEC oil exports.

  11. Non-OPEC oil supply gains to outpace demand in 1997

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beck, R.J.

    1997-01-01

    Rising oil supplies in 1997 will relax some of the market tightness that drove up crude prices last year. Worldwide demand for petroleum products in 1996 rose faster than anticipated and faster than supply from outside the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. This increased demand for OPEC oil and pushed up prices for crude. At year end, the world export price of crude was up more than 25% from the same period a year earlier. Market conditions will change in 1997. While worldwide economic growth will continue to boost demand for energy and petroleum, non-OPEC petroleum supply will grow even more. Increases in North Sea and Latin American production will help boost non-OPEC output by 1.9 million b/d. And revenues from 1996 production gains will make additional investment possible in exploration and production. The paper discusses world economic growth, world oil demand, worldwide supply, supply outlook, prices and international drilling

  12. OPEC wants to keep the oil price at a high level

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krajka, D.

    2005-01-01

    Because the rest of the world has learnt to deal with expensive petroleum, the OPEC has decided to change its range of prices. The price of the oil barrel has only a weak impact on the world economy: in 2004 the world economy shows a 5% growth while the barrel price has increased of 30% and has exceeded the 50$ limit. In order to continue to control the prices, the OPEC has announced its intention of doubling its potential production capacities by the end of 2005 in order to fulfill the demand variations. (J.S.)

  13. OPEC chemotherapy (vincristine, prednisolone, etoposide and chlorambucil) for refractory and recurrent Hodgkin's disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barnett, M J; Man, A M; Richards, M A; Waxman, J H; Wrigley, P F; Lister, T A

    1987-01-01

    Fifteen adults with refractory or recurrent Hodgkin's disease were treated with a combination of: vincristine, prednisolone, etoposide and chlorambucil (OPEC). All had previously received mustine, vinblastine, procarbazine and prednisolone (MVPP) and seven had subsequently been treated with alternative regimens. Responses were achieved in four, but complete remission in only one. Toxicity was considerable and five died of treatment related complications. Only two are alive (one in complete remission) more than three years after therapy. The toxicity of the OPEC regimen outweighed its benefit in this group of poor prognosis patients.

  14. Analysis of Angola as a new OPEC member (2007) for the world oil market; Analise da entrada de Angola na OPEC (2007) para o mercado mundial do petroleo

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Garcia, Ana Paula Alves S.L.; Almeida, Gabriela Gomes de [Universidade Vila Velha, ES (Brazil). Curso de Relacoes Internacionais; Samarco Mineracao S.A., Belo Horizonte, MG (Brazil)], e-mail: anapaula_aslg@hotmail.com, e-mail: gabiptu@hotmail.com

    2008-07-01

    Angola is in the spot light lately as one of the major oil producers in the world, being the second largest oil producer in Africa. Therefore, in 2007, this country became a member of OPEC which brought to table several speculations concerning Angola's position facing the pressures and demands of an international organization. This article comes to analyse Angola's possible strategies when it comes to defending its economic interests and its participation in the price politics implemented by OPEC. All hypotheses considered in this article are analysed according to the Complex Interdependence Theory (Keohane and Nye). This International Affairs Theory is defined by a mutual and multilateral dependence between the nations. This way, we may conclude that even though Angola has a history of non fulfilling its agreements, the cooperation is made necessary because it is the most benefice alternative. The tendency is that when Angola starts fulfilling its quotas on the oil matter it will receive cooperation from OPEC and other nations in other areas where this country needs assistance. (author)

  15. Oil markets to 2010: the impact of non-Opec oil

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Enav, Peter

    1998-09-01

    This report provides an in-depth assessment of oil development scenarios in every non-Opec oil producing country from 1998 to 2010, in addition to evaluating the extent and direction of future oil trade for Opec and non-Opec countries alike. It re-assesses world oil consumption patterns in light of the Asian financial crisis, providing a concise yet comprehensive coverage of an often-neglected oil production group. The oil market development scenario is analysed in each country, with detailed consideration of the major players providing historical production, consumption, import and export data; current oil balance - production, imports and exports; an assessment of oil development policy; analysis of potential development obstacles considering regulatory, financial, political and environmental issues; oil production and consumption projections to 2010, by type; and import and export projections to 2010, by destination and source. More than 80 tables supplying essential statistics on the world's non-Opec markets accompany the report, with maps and schematic diagrams showing existing and potential infrastructure and fields. (Author)

  16. WTO law and economics and restrictive practices in energy trade : The case of the OPEC cartel

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Marhold, Anna

    2016-01-01

    The World Trade Organization cannot deal comprehensively with restrictive export practices maintained by energy cartels such as the OPEC. The main reason for this is the absence of competition rules in the multilateral trading system. However, in spite of the fact that the WTO does not have rules on

  17. Compiling an OPEC Word List: A Corpus-Informed Lexical Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ebtisam Saleh Aluthman

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The present study is conducted within the borders of lexicographic research, where corpora have increasingly become all-pervasive. The overall goal of this study is to compile an open-source OPEC[1] Word List (OWL that is available for lexicographic research and vocabulary learning related to English language learning for the purpose of oil marketing and oil industries. To achieve this goal, an OPEC Monthly Reports Corpus (OMRC comprising of 1,004,542 words was compiled. The OMRC consists of 40 OPEC monthly reports released between 2003 and 2015. Consideration was given to both range and frequency criteria when compiling the OWL which consists of 255 word types. Along with this basic goal, this study aims to investigate the coverage of the most well-recognised word lists, the General Service List of English Words (GSL (West ,1953  and  the Academic Word List (AWL (Coxhead, 2000 in the OMRC corpus. The 255 word types included in the OWL are not overlapping with either the AWL or the GSL. Results suggest the necessity of making this discipline-specific word list for ESL students of oil marketing industries. The availability of the OWL has significant pedagogical contributions to curriculum design, learning activities and the overall process of vocabulary learning in the context of teaching English for specific purposes (ESP. OPEC stands for Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries.

  18. Analysis of Saudi Arabia's behavior within OPEC and the world oil market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alkhathlan, Khalid; Gately, Dermot; Javid, Muhammad

    2014-01-01

    We analyze oil export behavior by Saudi Arabia and the Rest of OPEC since 1973. In the literature there has been a wide range of estimates of their correlation: from positive, to zero, to negative. We find that the correlation has varied over time, from moderately high (0.7) in normal periods, to negative during each of five interruptions; the average correlation has been 0.19. Saudi Arabia's oil market behavior depends upon circumstances, but its primary goal is the stability of OPEC and the world oil market. It will coordinate export reductions with the Rest of OPEC when faced with declining demand, but it will increase exports when faced with interruptions elsewhere in OPEC. Allowing for such differences provides evidence of intelligent, context-dependent consistency. But ignoring context – by wrongly assuming the same Saudi response in Normal periods and Interruptions – can lead to a conclusion of Saudi “inconsistency” because the difference in the responses has been obscured

  19. OPEC at middle age: facing an uncertain future in the world oil market economy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1992-01-01

    International institutions, like individuals, groups, and even societies and cultures, pass through various stages in their development as they grow from youth through middle age into more experienced and mature members of the international community. OPEC, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, is no exception to this generally observable phenomenon on the world economic scene. It has clearly undergone a gradual process of growth over the past three decades or so since its establishment by five founding states in Baghdad in September 1960. OPEC's history since then could be characterized as being divided into three distinct developmental stages. The first decade, the 1960s, was a period of consolidation of OPEC's power over the oil companies and their control over the member countries'oil resources. The second decade - the 1970s - was a decade characterized by almost continuous and prolonged producer - consumer confrontation as well as revelation of some of the more basic cleavages within OPEC as an organization. This was followed by the decade of the 1980s -- a period of relative accommodation between producers and consumers in the interest of longer term market stability

  20. Long-term oil strategy - creating an appropriate fiscal regime in OPEC countries to keep the upstream sector competitive

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Olorunfemi, M.A.

    1992-01-01

    The focus of this paper is to examine the factors that governed the upstream activities in OPEC countries during three distinct periods, namely: 1950 to 1973, 1974 to 1985 and 1986 to the present. Particular emphasis will be placed on the fiscal and legal instruments adopted by a number of OPEC countries in attracting oil companies to their respective countries, so as to maintain the momentum of oil exploration and production which is commensurate with their huge hydrocarbon reserves and also be in consonance with their pace of economic development while continuing to exercise their sovereign rights. The first part of the paper reviews the concepts governing the strategic behaviour of oil companies and oil-producing countries. Part two is devoted to the evolution of fiscal regimes in OPEC countries showing how the behaviour of OPEC Member Countries and oil companies illustrates the concepts in part one. How the dynamics of the oil market influence the upstream planning in OPEC Member Countries is examined in part three of the paper. Part four looks at the new cooperation and strategic alliances that are evolving between some OPEC countries and a number of oil companies to ensure that OPEC retains a leadership position which is commensurate with its Members' hydrocarbon resources. Conclusions are drawn in part five. (author)

  1. Trade balance instability and the optimal exchange rate regime: The case of OPEC countries

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Aljerrah, M.A.

    1993-01-01

    The OPEC members have experienced wide fluctuations in their trade balances. This can be attributed to several factors: (1) heavy dependence of national income and export earnings on a single primary export-oil; (2) instability of price and world demand for oil; and (3) the exchange rate regime practiced in recent years. An exchange rate policy can be used to minimize the fluctuations in trade balance, given the changes in exchange rates of major international currencies. The purpose of this study is two fold; first, examine the effects of fluctuations in trade balance on the OPEC economies, and second, propose appropriate exchange rate regime for selected OPEC members. The study is divided into two parts. The first part demonstrates the impact of trade balance changes on national income and other macroeconomic variables using a Keynesian framework. The second part involves using conventional trade models to search for the appropriate exchange rate regime to minimize the fluctuations in trade balance of each selective country. The study's findings are: first, fluctuations in trade balances had negative effects on the economics of Algeria, Kuwait, Libya, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. Second, the current exchange rate regime of no sample country is optimal in minimizing trade balance fluctuations. Third, in contrast to expectations, U.S. dollar peg did not stabilize the trade balance of any OPEC member. Finally, the results show that the sample OPEC economies could have enjoyed faster - though with different degree - economic growth if they had pegged their currencies to the derived optimal exchange rate regime. These optimal exchange rate regimes are: the SDR for Algeria and the United Arab Emirates, the purchasing power parity for Libya and Saudi Arabia, and the real Yen for Kuwait.

  2. How does ANWR exploration affect OPEC behavior? - A simulation study of an open-loop cournot-nash game

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yang, Zili

    2008-01-01

    Exploring petroleum reserves in the Alaskan Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR) has been proposed to reduce the dependence on foreign oil and to ease the energy shortage in the United States. To investigate the impacts of the ANWR exploration on strategic behavior of OPEC members, a calibrated dynamic model of oligopolistic competition and cartel collusion in the U.S. petroleum market is built in this paper. Numerical simulations on an open-loop game are used here to examine the scope and magnitude of strategic interactions between OPEC's decisions and ANWR exploration. The simulation results show that OPEC's strategic postures have much stronger effects on the U.S. petroleum market than the ANWR exploration. The simulations in this paper indicate that preventing cartel collusion by OPEC is more effective than the ANWR exploration in alleviating short petroleum supplies of the United States in the near future. (author)

  3. Global Warming: Predicting OPEC Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Petroleum Consumption Using Neural Network and Hybrid Cuckoo Search Algorithm.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chiroma, Haruna; Abdul-kareem, Sameem; Khan, Abdullah; Nawi, Nazri Mohd; Gital, Abdulsalam Ya'u; Shuib, Liyana; Abubakar, Adamu I; Rahman, Muhammad Zubair; Herawan, Tutut

    2015-01-01

    Global warming is attracting attention from policy makers due to its impacts such as floods, extreme weather, increases in temperature by 0.7°C, heat waves, storms, etc. These disasters result in loss of human life and billions of dollars in property. Global warming is believed to be caused by the emissions of greenhouse gases due to human activities including the emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) from petroleum consumption. Limitations of the previous methods of predicting CO2 emissions and lack of work on the prediction of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) CO2 emissions from petroleum consumption have motivated this research. The OPEC CO2 emissions data were collected from the Energy Information Administration. Artificial Neural Network (ANN) adaptability and performance motivated its choice for this study. To improve effectiveness of the ANN, the cuckoo search algorithm was hybridised with accelerated particle swarm optimisation for training the ANN to build a model for the prediction of OPEC CO2 emissions. The proposed model predicts OPEC CO2 emissions for 3, 6, 9, 12 and 16 years with an improved accuracy and speed over the state-of-the-art methods. An accurate prediction of OPEC CO2 emissions can serve as a reference point for propagating the reorganisation of economic development in OPEC member countries with the view of reducing CO2 emissions to Kyoto benchmarks--hence, reducing global warming. The policy implications are discussed in the paper.

  4. Global Warming: Predicting OPEC Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Petroleum Consumption Using Neural Network and Hybrid Cuckoo Search Algorithm.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Haruna Chiroma

    Full Text Available Global warming is attracting attention from policy makers due to its impacts such as floods, extreme weather, increases in temperature by 0.7°C, heat waves, storms, etc. These disasters result in loss of human life and billions of dollars in property. Global warming is believed to be caused by the emissions of greenhouse gases due to human activities including the emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2 from petroleum consumption. Limitations of the previous methods of predicting CO2 emissions and lack of work on the prediction of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC CO2 emissions from petroleum consumption have motivated this research.The OPEC CO2 emissions data were collected from the Energy Information Administration. Artificial Neural Network (ANN adaptability and performance motivated its choice for this study. To improve effectiveness of the ANN, the cuckoo search algorithm was hybridised with accelerated particle swarm optimisation for training the ANN to build a model for the prediction of OPEC CO2 emissions. The proposed model predicts OPEC CO2 emissions for 3, 6, 9, 12 and 16 years with an improved accuracy and speed over the state-of-the-art methods.An accurate prediction of OPEC CO2 emissions can serve as a reference point for propagating the reorganisation of economic development in OPEC member countries with the view of reducing CO2 emissions to Kyoto benchmarks--hence, reducing global warming. The policy implications are discussed in the paper.

  5. The behavior of crude oil spot and futures prices around OPEC and SPR announcements: An event study perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Demirer, Riza; Kutan, Ali M.

    2010-01-01

    This paper examines the informational efficiency of crude oil spot and futures markets with respect to OPEC conference and U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) announcements. We employ the event study methodology to examine the abnormal returns in crude oil spot and futures markets around OPEC conference and SPR announcement dates between 1983 and 2008. Our findings regarding OPEC announcements indicate an asymmetry in that only OPEC production cut announcements yield a statistically significant impact with the impact diminishing for longer maturities. We also find that the persistence of returns following OPEC production cut announcements creates substantial excess returns to investors who take long positions on the day following the end of OPEC conferences. In the case of SPR announcements, we find that the government's use of this program initiates a short-run market reaction following the announcement date. Furthermore, our tests of cumulative abnormal returns suggest that the market reacts efficiently to SPR announcements providing support for the use of the strategic reserves as a tool to stabilize the oil market. Our findings have significant policy implications for investors and are useful in designing effective energy policy strategies.

  6. The Compare of Concentration and Efficiency in Banking Industry: Evidence from the OPEC Countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mehdi BEHNAME

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is studying that whether the profitability from banking industry comes from the market power or it is a result of their high efficiency level. For this act, we have exerted structuralism and Chicago models versus X-and scale efficiency. Our sample covers the banks in the OPEC countries in the period 1995- 2009. The results for all countries in our sample show that X-and scale efficiency have the positive and significant effect on profitability but, concentration variable decreases profitability. Overall the results above support that the market power hypotheses are rejected for the OPEC countries, while efficiency gains appear to have a positive and significant impact on banking profitability.

  7. OPEC's production under fluctuating oil prices. Further test of the target revenue theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ramcharran, H.

    2001-01-01

    Oil production cutbacks in recent years by OPEC members to stabilize price and to increase revenues warrant further empirical verification of the target revenue theory (TRT). We estimate a modified version of Griffin (1985) target revenue model using data from 1973 to 2000. The sample period, unlike previous investigations, includes phases of both price increase (1970s) and price decrease (1980s-1990s), thus providing a better framework for examining production behavior. The results, like the earlier study, are not supportive of the strict version of the TRT, however, evidence (negative and significant elasticity of supply) of the partial version are substantiated. Further empirical estimates do not support the competitive pricing model, hypothesizing a positive elasticity of supply. OPEC's loss of market share and the drop in the share of oil-based energy should signal an adjustment in pricing and production strategies

  8. Energy conservation: an alternative for investment in the oil sector for OPEC member countries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zamani, M.

    2005-01-01

    Investment in the oil sector is the main policy of expanding net crude oil export capacity in OPEC Member Countries. The other alternative should be improving energy conservation policies. Since these countries benefit from cheap energy sources, it is reasonable to expect inefficient use of energy in their economies, resulting in relatively high energy intensity. This paper deals with the causality relationship between energy consumption and gross domestic product (GDP). First, stationary tests are run. Second, if there is a cointegrating relationship, an error correction model is applied; otherwise a standard Granger causality test is conducted. It was discovered that for all OPEC Member Countries we cannot statistically accept causality running from energy to GDP. Therefore, not only are proper conservation policies not a threat to economic growth, they also lead to an expansion of oil export capacity. (author)

  9. What does the future hold for OPEC?; Quel avenir pour l'OPEP?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2011-07-01

    The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) celebrated its 50. anniversary in September 2010. For half a century now, the cartel has succeeded in playing a major role on the energy market, despite divisions and changes. But today, its future is threatened, primarily in consequence of emerging alternative energies that are likely to blossom in the years to come due to rising crude oil prices

  10. The impact of the Gulf crisis on world oil and OPEC

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mabro, R.

    1994-01-01

    The 1990-91 Gulf conflict involved oil as a major factor or significant objective from the viewpoint of all countries involved. Low oil prices, favored by Kuwait, limited Iraqi revenues. Iraq pressed the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to raise oil prices, leading to tensions with Kuwait, with which Iraq also had long-standing territorial claims. The desire to protect access to the world's largest oil supplies was a factor in the USA's rapid reaction to the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait in August 1990. The initial response was an embargo on exports from Iraq and occupied Kuwait; this removed from the world oil market an estimated 4.5-5 million bbl/d. Although the spot price of oil rose to $27/bbl two weeks after the invasion, the market had significant supply-side flexibility. Major increases in output from Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates almost entirely compensated for the lost production, stopping the upward movement of oil prices. These peaked in September 1990, stabilized, and fell dramatically in January 1991. The fall was helped by speculator selloffs, the perception that Iraq would soon be defeated under the recently begun air attacks, and the USA decision to sell from its strategic reserves. One effect of the crisis was a disturbance of output distribution among OPEC members; the Saudis and Emirates were unwillling to give up higher output levels to accommodate the return of Kuwait, thus making OPEC production quotas more difficult to achieve. Another effect was an increase in the political dependence of the Arab Gulf countries on the Western powers, particularly the USA, as the only credible guarantor of regional security. This further inhibits moves by OPEC to control oil prices or production

  11. Health Care Expenditure and GDP in Oil Exporting Countries: Evidence From OPEC Data, 1995-2012.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fazaeli, Ali Akbar; Ghaderi, Hossein; Salehi, Masoud; Fazaeli, Ali Reza

    2015-06-11

    There is a large body of literature examining income in relation to health expenditures. The share of expenditures in health sector from GDP in developed countries is often larger than in non-developed countries, suggesting that as the level of economic growth increases, health spending increase, too. This paper estimates long-run relationships between health expenditures and GDP based on panel data of a sample of 12 countries of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), using data for the period 1995-2012. We use panel data unit root tests, cointegration analysis and ECM model to find long-run and short-run relation. This study examines whether health is a luxury or a necessity for OPEC countries within a unit root and cointegration framework. Panel data analysis indicates that health expenditures and GDP are co-integrated and have Engle and Granger causality. In addition, in oil countries that have oil export income, the share of government expenditures in the health sector is often greater than in private health expenditures similar developed countries. The findings verify that health care is not a luxury good and income has a robust relationship to health expenditures in OPEC countries.

  12. Short-term forecasting of non-OPEC supply: a test of seasonality and seasonal decomposition

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jazayeri, S.M.R.T.; Yahyai, A.

    2002-01-01

    The purpose of this study is, first to find out, based on historical data, whether quarterly averages of non-OPEC supply follow a seasonal pattern. If that is mathematically established, then, secondly, it is attempted to estimate the best seasonal factors to decompose the estimated yearly average into seasonal averages. This study applies the Fourier analysis to quarterly supply series to test for seasonality, and provides estimates of seasonal factors for the year 2001 by applying the so-called X-11 decomposition method to the annual estimate. A set of historical data, consisting of quarterly supply averages of individual countries, regional subtotals and aggregate non-OPEC for the period 1971-2000, forms the basis of the analysis. Through the application of the Fourier analysis and X-11 decomposition method, it is demonstrated that quarterly non-OPEC supply, be it by an individual major producer or regional sub-totals, clearly follows a seasonal pattern. This is a very useful conclusion for the market analyst involved with forecasting the quarterly supply. (author)

  13. OPEC/OJEC for stage 4 neuroblastoma in children over 1 year of age.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tweddle, D A; Pinkerton, C R; Lewis, I J; Ellershaw, C; Cole, M; Pearson, A D

    2001-01-01

    This paper reports the toxicity of OPEC/OJEC chemotherapy in stage 4 neuroblastoma patients over 1 year of age. Ninety-five patients with stage 4 neuroblastoma received alternating courses of OPEC/OJEC--vincristine 1.5 mg/m2 (O), cisplatin 80 mg/m2 (P), etoposide 200 mg/m2 (E), cyclophosphamide 600 mg/m2 (C), and carboplatin 500 mg/m2 (J), every 21 days if there was haematological recovery. Seventy out of ninety-five (74%) patients completed seven or more courses and were evaluable for toxicity. Of these 70 patients, 33% had more than three episodes of fever and sepsis, 35% required more than five blood or platelet transfusions, 36% had grade 2 or more gastrointestinal toxicity and 9% had neurotoxicity. There was a median reduction in GFR of 32 ml/min/1.73 m2 (-46 to 134) and there was one toxic death. OPEC/OJEC is a well-tolerated therapy for stage 4 neuroblastoma over 1 year of age.

  14. OPEC abandons quotas, more violence in Nigeria and British give away gas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon

    2006-01-01

    OPEC ministers meeting in Vienna on 11th September agreed to leave the production ceiling unchanged at 28 mn bpd. The cartel, however, is to move away from formal quotas to a system of adjusting total production to world demand. The change recognizes the fact that many OPEC countries cannot produce their full quota allowances. The new policy is described by OPEC as trying ''to ensure that supply and demand (remain) in balance with prices at reasonable levels''. ''Reasonable levels'' were not defined in the communique, but most ministers agreed they should be in the region to $60-65/bbl. The oil markets were sceptical and prices fell below $60, reaching a seven-month low at the start of October. Nigeria announced a production cut of 120,000 bpd, though this may be a recognition of the difficulty of producing oil there at present. During September, the country was plagued by further violence in the Niger Delta, including attacks on oil workers, kidnappings and sabotage to oil installations. Oil workers went on strike for two days, threatening further walk-outs. By late September, nearly 875,000 bpd of production was estimated shut-in as a result of the current unrest. Shell said it had suspended plans to repair damaged facilities in the Niger Delta because of the continuing high level of violence. (author)

  15. Real purchasing power of oil revenues for OPEC Member Countries: a broad currency basket and dynamic trade pattern approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mazraati, M.

    2005-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to examine the real purchasing power of OPEC Member Countries' oil revenues, which are subject to 'the value of the US dollar vis-a-vis other major currencies' and 'world imported inflation'. The exponential weighting average formula with a broad basket of currencies is suggested. The basket of currencies is labelled as a broad currency basket and includes the major trading partners of OPEC Member Countries. The weights are normalized OPEC import shares of the countries of the basket and are updated and adjusted every year to incorporate a gradual change in the trade pattern. In other words, the dynamic trade pattern approach is incorporated in the calculations. The nominal dollar oil revenues of OPEC Member Countries are about $5,099 billion during 1970 to 2004, of which $3,725 bn (73 per cent) have been lost due to imported inflation and the dollar's depreciation. Imported inflation and dollar depreciation have had a respective 78.6 per cent and 21.4 per cent contribution to the losses of the purchasing power of OPEC Member Countries. The imported inflation rate approaches a stable low level, but OPEC still has a lot of concerns on dollar swings. The euro offers opportunities for many oil-exporting nations that have extensive trade relations with Euro-zone countries. Payments for oil exports can be invoked in euros at the prevailing dollar-euro rate on the day of a given contract, or any other trigger formula. This would immunize a major portion of OPEC oil revenues from dollar depreciation. (author)

  16. A theory of price-fixing/market-sharing rings as applied to OPEC behavior since march 1982

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kazushi Uemura

    1992-01-01

    In the past, OPEC has been analyzed as a cartel, but usually without a formal theoretical framework. Don Patinkin's cartel model was occasionally used, but was turned down for being 'too strict' to explain OPEC behavior. One of the most serious short-comings of Patinkin's model is its prediction that high-cost producers would first shut down for the survival of a cartel. In OPEC agreements, it has been seen many times that Saudi Arabia (a low-cost producer) reduced its production for the survival of the cartel. A new and promising cartel theory, A theory of price-fixing/market-sharing rings, has been introduced ('CMT model'). In this paper, it is going to use CMT model's structure and model OPEC's major price-fixing/market-sharing agreements and a period without such an agreement since March, 1982 when OPEC, for the first time in its history, reached a price-fixing/market-sharing agreement. 3 refs., 2 figs., 2 tabs

  17. World Energy Balance Outlook and OPEC Production Capacity: Implications for Global Oil Security

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Azadeh M. Rouhani

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available The imbalance between energy resource availability, demand, and production capacity, coupled with inherent economic and environmental uncertainties make strategic energy resources planning, management, and decision-making a challenging process. In this paper, a descriptive approach has been taken to synthesize the world’s energy portfolio and the global energy balance outlook in order to provide insights into the role of Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC in maintaining “stability” and “balance” of the world’s energy market. This synthesis illustrates that in the absence of stringent policies, i.e., if historical trends of the global energy production and consumption hold into the future, it is unlikely that non-conventional liquid fuels and renewable energy sources will play a dominant role in meeting global energy demand by 2030. This should be a source of major global concern as the world may be unprepared for an ultimate shift to other energy sources when the imminent peak oil production is reached. OPEC’s potential to impact the supply and price of oil could enable this organization to act as a facilitator or a barrier for energy transition policies, and to play a key role in the global energy security through cooperative or non-cooperative strategies. It is argued that, as the global energy portfolio becomes more balanced in the long run, OPEC may change its typical high oil price strategies to drive the market prices to lower equilibria, making alternative energy sources less competitive. Alternatively, OPEC can contribute to a cooperative portfolio management approach to help mitigate the gradually emerging energy crisis and global warming, facilitating a less turbulent energy transition path while there is time.

  18. Energy efficiency and capital-energy substitutability: Evidence from four OPEC countries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Adetutu, Morakinyo O.

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • The analysis examines energy efficiency gains in selected OPEC countries during 1972–2010. • Capital-energy substitutability is also explored to analyze the impact of policy measures to reduce energy use. • The magnitudes of energy efficiency gains are somewhat small or modest. • Energy and capital are substitutes in some countries, but complements in others. • Climate change policies need to internalize the environmental cost of energy consumption in end-use prices. - Abstract: Rapid economic growth and development in several oil-exporting developing countries have led to increasing energy consumption and the accompanying greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Consequently, a good understanding of the nature and structure of energy use in developing economies is required for future energy and climate change policies. To this end, a modified translog cost function is employed in this paper to estimate energy efficiency for selected members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) over the period 1972–2010. This also allows for the estimation of energy-capital substitutability, which arguably reflects the likely ease/disruption to long-term growth arising from policy measures aimed at reducing energy consumption and GHG emissions. The estimated results show that energy efficiency gains range from −14% to 13% for sampled countries. Furthermore, factor substitution elasticities suggest that energy and capital are substitutes in Algeria and Saudi Arabia, but are found to be complements in Iran and Venezuela. The insight generated by this study is that, over the last four decades, energy efficiency improvements in selected OPEC countries are modest, possibly reflecting a “subsidy effect” arising from artificially low energy prices. Thus, policy makers should take note that measures aimed at conserving energy need to internalize the environmental cost arising from energy consumption using pricing and fiscal instruments

  19. Meting at Qatar confirms the new OPEC pragmatism; Reuniao no Qatar confirma o novo pragmatismo da OPEP

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boussena, Sadek

    2007-07-01

    On June 11, the the members of OPEC had a meeting at Qatar, and based on the current oil prices, decided not reducing their production quotes, maintaining the production total limit at 25.4 millions of b/d, established before the entering of American troops in Baghdad on April 22. Therefore, the OPEC prefers to consolidated his profits taking advantage of the positive news from prior weeks. Some factors seems to sustain the prices at an elevated level: the late retaking of Iraq exportations; the doubts on the real production capacity of the PDVSA; the inventories at under level to that recent years; the reduced production of Saudi Arab in June; and the support required by the non OPEC largest producers, including Mexico, Russia and Norwegian.

  20. Price movements guided by the OPEC cartel, when there is a possible increase on prices inside the Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alex Paubel Junger

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available The main purpose of this paper is to calculate the estimation of oil supply and demand in the last 12 quarters (2013-2015, using an OLSconometric model, indicating the supply and demand of the market, in a second moment the oil market current supply and demand curves would be indicated for the average price of Brent oil in the abovementioned period. So that in a second moment the "dead weight" of OPEC's economic price model is calculated and how this deadweight economically affects the oil and gas market globally, economically withdrawing the profits that the main producers could obtain if OPEC did not set the price artificially in unstable political scenarios. Lastly, regarding the global economy, and more precisely, the loss in the energy through financial results due the actions taken by OPEC led by Saudi Arabia and its partners in the Middle East, indicating the market failures caused by a cartel.

  1. Analysis of the impact of the Kyoto Protocol on the export revenues of OPEC member states and on the oil import requirements of non-Annex I countries

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Linden NH van der; Linde C van der; Lako P; Rooijen SNM van; Netherlands Energy Research; Netherlands Institute of International Relations; NOP

    2000-01-01

    The members of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) continue to voice their concerns about the adverse impact of the implementation of greenhouse gas emission reduction policies on the oil exporting countries. Referring to Article 4.8 of the UNFCCC, the OPEC is of the opinion

  2. Disequilibrium analysis of three macroeconomies after two OPEC shocks: US, Germany, and Japan

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lin, G.Y.

    1983-01-01

    Economic performance in each economy is discussed and an appraisal of policy choices is given. Two OPEC shocks, (1973-1974) and (1979-1980), are specially brought out because of their uniqueness in economic history and also their dominant feature as supply-side shocks which are ignored in the conventional Keynesian economics. The model considers both aggregate demand and aggregate supply in an economy, and provides a framework to describe economic phenomena after OPEC shocks. The model consists of two dynamic adjustments, quantity adjustments and price adjustments. It is assumed that quantity adjustments are observed more frequently than price adjustments in the short run. However, prices are not perfectly rigid but less frequently adjusted. Under this framework, the phenomenon of classical unemployment can be distinguished from Keynesian unemployment for the purpose of discussion. The results showed that all these three economies were in the classical unemployment regime during the first oil shock and, during the second oil shock, Germany and Japan were in the classical unemployment regime while US was in the Keynesian unemployment regime. However, both Germany and Japan performed comparatively better than the US during the second oil shock in terms of real growth of GNP and inflation rates. It demonstrated that Germany and Japan were aware of the feature of supply shocks and paid attention to both demand and supply, especially to promote supply by reducing the dependence on oil and by increasing the flexibility of money wage rates.

  3. About other countries in the Copenhagen process: India, Russia, OPEC, Canada and Brazil

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2009-06-01

    This report proposes analyses of the postures of other countries than China, United States or European countries six months before the Copenhagen Conference: India, Russia, OPEC countries, Canada, and Brazil. India displays some characteristics of a developing country as far its electrification rate, its proportion of rural population and its poverty level are concerned, and, even though this country is aware of environmental challenges, is more concerned by the security of its energy supplies. OPEC countries fear that the struggle against climate change would result in a decrease of oil demand. Russia is facing several challenges: it is the third world CO 2 emitter, it aims at doubling its GDP between 2000 and 2010 and would therefore increase its emissions, its economy mainly relies on hydrocarbon production and exports, and its government wants to decrease its domestic gas consumption because its low cost gas fields are running out. Canada possesses important oil reserves and its greenhouse gas emissions have been recently increasing but its posture is evolving towards a more environment friendly posture. Brazil is the fourth greenhouse gas emitter, mostly because of deforestation, and tries to find the balance between a necessary struggle against this deforestation and defending its agricultural interests. The authors mention for each country the participation to previous conference and the eventual signing or ratification of environmental international agreements

  4. The fluctuations in oil prices in the OPEC countries and the impact on the world oil market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Buryanova N.V.

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available the article examines the issues of influence of OPEC countries on the international oil market. Also, the author analyzes the state of the oil market and fluctuations in oil prices at the macroeconomic level for 2011–2016.

  5. The economic cost of low domestic product prices in OPEC Member Countries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guerer, N.; Ban, J.

    2000-01-01

    The present state of subsidies on major oil products (gasoline, kerosene, diesel and fuel oil) in OPEC Member Countries is analysed, in order to quantify their economic cost, keeping in mind the importance of reforming or gradually removing subsidies as one of the crucial economic challenges facing many Member Countries. The paper begins with a general definition and description of subsidies, then discusses briefly the key issues in reforming/removing them, with the potential benefits. Following a section on subsidy level estimations in recent years, the subsidy implications in terms of the accruing budget burden and foregone revenues from additional export potential are presented. This is together with some arguments supporting the process of adjustment towards internationally competitive prices for oil products as an inescapable development for Member Countries; this should progress in gradual, but firm steps. (author)

  6. Exploring crude oil production and export capacity of the OPEC Middle East countries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Matsumoto, Ken'ichi; Voudouris, Vlasios; Stasinopoulos, Dimitrios; Rigby, Robert; Di Maio, Carlo

    2012-01-01

    As the world economy highly depends on crude oil, it is important to understand the dynamics of crude oil production and export capacity of major oil-exporting countries. Since crude oil resources are predominately located in the OPEC Middle East, these countries are expected to have significant leverage in the world crude oil markets by taking into account a range of uncertainties. In this study, we develop a scenario for crude oil export and production using the ACEGES model considering uncertainties in the resource limits, demand growth, production growth, and peak/decline point. The results indicate that the country-specific peak of both crude oil export and production comes in the early this century in the OPEC Middle East countries. On the other hand, they occupy most of the world export and production before and after the peak points. Consequently, these countries are expected to be the key group in the world crude oil markets. We also find that the gap between the world crude oil demand and production broadens over time, meaning that the acceleration of the development of ultra-deep-water oil, oil sands, and extra-heavy oil will be required if the world continuous to heavily rely on oil products. - Highlights: ► We simulate the future scenario of crude oil export and production using ACEGES. ► The simulated results are analyzed using the GAMLSS framework. ► The peak points of oil export and production will come early in this century. ► The OPCE Middle East will produce most of the world crude oil in the near future. ► These countries will continuously be the key players in the crude oil markets.

  7. The non Opec petroleum supply would get from 42 to 47 Mb/day from 1995 until 2000 but the call to Opec petroleum would reach 50 Mb/day in the year 2010

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1996-01-01

    The increase of non Opec petroleum supply is going to reach 47 Mb/d in 2000. This increase comes from the North sea production and that is the reason why the international Energy Agency estimates that the petroleum prices, except supply disruption, will not increase. An increase of international energy demand is predicted from 34% to 46% between 1995 and 2010. This demand will be satisfied by fossil fuels. The petroleum demand will become from 70 millions of barrels by day to 92 and 97 millions barrels by day in 2010. The dependence of OECD countries could reach 60% in 2010 against 50% nowadays. It is predicted that middle east Opec countries would supply 50% of the worldwide petroleum needs and the OECD energy consumption could represent 50% of the worldwide energy consumption. (N.C.). 3 tabs

  8. The part of Arabian OPEC countries in the world petroleum production has raised from 19,4% in 1985 to 27,7% in 1994

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1995-01-01

    This work deals with the Arabian OPEC countries part in the world petroleum production. It has increased to 19,4% in 1985 to 27,7% in 1994. The petroleum and natural gas reserves of arab countries are given respectively in milliards of barrels and in milliards of m 3 for 1994. The number of oil wells in the Arabian OPEC countries and the petroleum production of arab countries are given too. (O.L.). 4 tabs

  9. Estimating the actual ET from a pecan farm using the OPEC energy-balance and Penman- Monteith methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Debele, B.; Bawazir, S. A.

    2006-12-01

    Accurate estimation of ET from field crops/orchards is the basis for better irrigation water management. In areas like Mesilla Valley, NM, where water is scarce, it is even more important to precisely determine the crop ET. An OPEC energy balance system was run for 117 days (June 22 October 14, 2001) in a matured pecan farm at Mesilla Valley, NM. The actual evapotranspiration (ET) from pecan orchards was determined from the surface energy balance as a residual, having measured the net radiation, soil heat flux, and sensible heat components using the OPEC method. Since pecans are large trees, we have also examined the effect of including thermal energies stored in the air (Ga) and plant canopy (Gc), on top of the commonly used thermal energy stored in the soil (Gs), on surface energy balance, and hence ET. The results indicate that incorporating thermal energies stored in the air and canopy has a significant effect on total energy storage for shorter temporal resolutions, such as 30-minutes and an hour. Conversely, for longer temporal resolutions (e.g., diurnal and monthly averages), the effect of including thermal energies stored in the air and vegetation on total thermal energy storage is negligible. Our results also showed that the bulk of the total thermal energy storage (G = Gs + Ga + Gc) in the surface energy balance was stored in the soil (Gs). In addition, we have also determined the crop coefficient (Kc) of pecan by combining the actual ET obtained from the OPEC method and potential ET (ET0) calculated using weather data in the surrounding area. Our average pecan Kc values were comparable with the ones reported by other researchers using different methods. We conclude that the OPEC energy balance method can be used to calculate Kc values for pecan whereby farmers and extension agents use the calculated Kc values in combination with ET0 to determine the consumptive use of pecan trees.

  10. Effective Comparison of Global Financial Crisis (2007 on Inflation of OPEC Countries and Selected Countries of G8

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yazdan Naghdi

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available This study has attempted to examine and compare the effects of 2007 financial crisis on inflation in OPEC countries and selected countries of G8, based on a panel data regression model during 2000-2010. It should be noted that the selected countries of G8 group are 5 industrial countries member of this group, including: America, Italy, Britain, France and Japan, that crisis has been seen faster in them than other countries. Growth economic variables (real sector of the economy, oil price and stock price index (i.e. financial market have been considered as affected shared variables of the financial crisis in both countries group. According to the obtained results, the only affected variable by the crisis in OPEC countries, is oil price which has positive and significant effect on inflation in the above mentioned countries so that one percent increase in oil price lead to about 0.08 percent increase on inflation, on the other hand, according to survey results there is no relationship between output and inflation in OPEC countries, so it reflects weak manufacturing structure sector (real sector of the economy in these countries

  11. Renewable Energy and Proven Oil Reserves Relation: Evidence from OPEC Members

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mehmet Arcan TUZCU

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The well documented literature on the relation between energy consumption and climate change has been extended by the addition of renewable energy consumption. Several studies show its impact on technical efficiency, per capita income or carbon dioxide (CO2 emission levels for developed and developing countries. However, to the extent of our knowledge, very few of them state the importance of renewable energy for the countries where the main type of fossil fuels, oil, is exported. This study aims to explore the association between renewable energy, real gross domestic product (GDP, CO2 emission level, real oil prices as well as the proven oil reserves for seven members of Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC. The analyses are conducted using panel data techniques, namely fixed effect – random effect tests. Our results show a positive and significant relation between renewable energy consumption, and real GDP and CO2 emission level. A statistically not significant coefficient is found for the relation between renewable energy and the proven oil reserves. The relation between energy and real oil prices is also insignificant.

  12. Postavení OPEC v mezinárodních hospodářských vztazích

    OpenAIRE

    Košteková, Eva

    2008-01-01

    Bakalárska práca sa týka Organizácie krajín vyvážajúcich ropu.Cieľom práce je zhodnotiť postavenie OPEC od jeho vzniku, charakterizovať význam tejto organizácie a popísať zapojenie OPEC vo svetovej ekonomike.V prvej časti práce je základná charakteristika OPEC. Druhá časť práce skúma vývoj postavenia OPEC od jeho vzniku v roku 1960 do roku 2000 so zameraním na ropné šoky. Tretia časť práce sa zaoberá postavením OPEC v treťom miléniu, vzťahmi s EÚ a obnoviteľnými zdrojmi energie....

  13. Oil prices without OPEC: a walk on the supply-side

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Roumasset, J.; Isaak, D.; Fesharaki, F.

    1983-07-01

    The rapid increases of oil prices during the 1970s are commonly regarded as prima facie evidence of monopoly power. This paper applies the theory of exhaustible resources to estimate the equilibrium oil prices (also known as efficiency prices) which would have prevailed in the absence of monopoly profits. The theory incorporates an extraction cost function wherein cost is a rising function of the cumulative amount of oil extracted. The model is used to simulate efficiency price paths under a variety of assumptions about extraction costs and real interest rates which are representative of perceptions at various times in recent history. These simulations show that the price increases of 1974 and 1979 to 1980 can be explained as a response to supply-side changes, especially changes in the perceived cost of the backstop technology and the fall in real interest rates in the mid and late 1970s. Thus, while efficiency prices were high in the 1970s, relative to extraction costs, it is plausible that average monopoly profits were negligible. This situation appears to have changed in the early 1980s due to the return of real interest rates to their historic levels. In early 1982, even spot prices, already below official prices, were substantially above the estimated efficiency or competitive price level. On the other hand, efficiency prices remain far above extraction costs. Thus, even if the price-setting power of OPEC were eroded by competition, the real price of oil would not fall below the level established in 1974. 18 references, 1 figure, 2 tables.

  14. Dioxin exerts anti-estrogenic actions in a novel dioxin-responsive telomerase-immortalized epithelial cell line of the porcine oviduct (TERT-OPEC).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hombach-Klonisch, Sabine; Pocar, Paola; Kauffold, Johannes; Klonisch, Thomas

    2006-04-01

    Oviduct epithelial cells are important for the nourishment and survival of ovulated oocytes and early embryos, and they respond to the steroid hormones estrogen and progesterone. Endocrine-disrupting polyhalogenated aromatic hydrocarbons (PHAH) are environmental toxins that act in part through the ligand-activated transcription factor arylhydrocarbon receptor (AhR; dioxin receptor), and exposure to PHAH has been shown to decrease fertility. To investigate effects of PHAHs on the oviduct epithelium as a potential target tissue of dioxin-type endocrine disruptors, we have established a novel telomerase-immortalized oviduct porcine epithelial cell line (TERT-OPEC). TERT-OPEC exhibited active telomerase and the immunoreactive epithelial marker cytokeratin but lacked the stromal marker vimentin. TERT-OPEC contained functional estrogen receptor (ER)-alpha and AhR, as determined by the detection of ER-alpha- and AhR-specific target molecules. Treatment of TERT-OPEC with the AhR ligand 2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin (TCDD) resulted in a significant increase in the production of the cytochrome P-450 microsomal enzyme CYP1A1. Activated AhR caused a downregulation of ER nuclear protein fraction and significantly decreased ER-signaling in TERT-OPEC as determined by ERE-luciferase transient transfection assays. In summary, the TCDD-induced and AhR-mediated anti-estrogenic responses by TERT-OPEC suggest that PHAH affect the predominantly estrogen-dependent differentiation of the oviduct epithelium within the fallopian tube. This action then alters the local endocrine milieu, potentially resulting in a largely unexplored cause of impaired embryonic development and female infertility.

  15. From 1985 to 1995: Opec petroleum exports have a 72,8% increase but their real value has a 38,9% decrease

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1996-01-01

    Here is described the situation of Opec petroleum export, exports whom volume has increased while the value has decreased. The author would like to warn the Opec countries of this very damageable situation for countries which burn their wealth when they are going to have great needs with an increasing population in the next years to come. As the petroleum demand is continuing to grow, each barrel which is not produced now will be produced in ten, twenty or thirty years and then it will be sold at a price very superior at nowadays one. (N.C.)

  16. from 1985 to 1994 OPEC countries have increased their production of 63.8% but the real value of their exports have decreased of 40.6%

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1995-01-01

    The prices war of 1985 was a disaster for OPEC countries because of the decrease of their financial resources, the debt and economic crisis which affects each country. Except for years 1989 and 1991 they have a chronic deficit since 1986

  17. The cause and effect of exclusionary zoning within a jurisdiction, and, The stockpile of petroleum needed to contain OPEC's price shocks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vatter, Marc H.

    In Part I, I model a jurisdiction where residents differ by income, and housing confers benefits on neighbors. By majority vote, residents choose minima on consumption of housing that differ by neighborhood, and they separate into neighborhoods by income. In practice, such laws take the form of minimum lot sizes, bans on multi-family units, building codes, and other restrictions. This policy maximizes a benefit-cost welfare criterion. Alternative policies include no minima and a uniform minimum citywide, based on libertarian and utilitarian welfare criteria, respectively. I compare the policies in terms of efficiency, implementability, and distributional consequences, and give numerical examples based on U.S. data. Willingness to pay for the benefit-cost optimum is convex in income. This helps to explain why neighborhood stratification by income has outpaced stratification of income itself in U.S metropolitan areas since 1970. In the examples, gains to a rich household are in the thousands and losses to the poor in the hundreds of dollars annually. In Part II, I estimate the stockpile of petroleum sufficient to contain a price shock perpetrated by the OPEC. I estimate world demand for petroleum such that the long run price elasticity exceeds that in the short run, and supply from non-OPEC producers with a similar kind of lagged response. Given this structure for elasticities, OPEC profits from sudden increases in price. I simulate interaction among consumers, non-OPEC producers, OPEC, and an International Energy Agency (IEA) that punishes OPEC by releasing oil onto the market. I endow the IEA with increasingly large stockpiles until they suffice to limit price shocks to specified levels. Every 5 reduction in the shock raises present-valued world GDP by about 650 billion. The IEA now has 1.4 billion barrels of petroleum, including 700 million in the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve. A 3 billion barrel stockpile would suffice to reduce a 35 price shock to 20, raising

  18. Pricing policies for a two-part exhaustible resource cartel: the case of OPEC (world oil project). Working paper

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hnyilicza, E.; Pindyck, R.S.

    1976-04-01

    This paper examines pricing policies for OPEC under the assumption that the cartel is composed of a block of spender countries with large cash needs and a block of saver countries with little immediate need for cash and a lower rate of discount. The decision problem for the two-part cartel is embodied in a game-theoretic framework and the optimal bargaining solution is computed using results from the theory of cooperative games developed by Nash. The set of feasible bargaining points--and the corresponding Nash solution--is computed under two assumptions on the behavior of output shares: that they are subject to choice and that they are fixed at historical values. The results suggest that for fixed output shares, there is little room for bargaining and the price path approximates the optimal monopoly price path. If the shares are subject to control, optimal paths depend significantly on the relative bargaining power of each block.

  19. Using Computer Techniques To Predict OPEC Oil Prices For Period 2000 To 2015 By Time-Series Methods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammad Esmail Ahmad

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available The instability in the world and OPEC oil process results from many factors through a long time. The problems can be summarized as that the oil exports dont constitute a large share of N.I. only but it also makes up most of the saving of the oil states. The oil prices affect their market through the interaction of supply and demand forces of oil. The research hypothesis states that the movement of oil prices caused shocks crises and economic problems. These shocks happen due to changes in oil prices need to make a prediction within the framework of economic planning in a short run period in order to avoid shocks through using computer techniques by time series models.

  20. Impact of Socioeconomic and Health System Factors on Infant Mortality Rate in Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC: Evidence from 2004 to 2013

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Satar Rezaei

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Background: infant mortality rate is one of the main health indicators for assessing the health system’s performance over the world. We aim to examine the socioeconomic and health system factors affect infant mortality in OPEC from 2004 to 2013. Methods: was used to examine the effects of some of the key explanatory factors (total fertility rate per women, GDP per capita (current US$, public health expenditure as % of total health expenditure and female labor force participation rate on infant mortality in OPEC from 2004 to 2013.  These data were obtained from World Bank and World Health Organization data bank. Results: our results showed the total fertility rate had a positive and significant impact on infant mortality in the studied period. Also, there are negative significant associations between GDP per capita and public health expenditure with infant mortality. We did not observe any relationship between infant mortality and female labour force participation rate in the studied countries from 2004 to 2013. Conclusion: total fertility rate per women, GDP per capita (current US$, public health expenditure as % of total health expenditure were identified as the main factors affecting on infant mortality in OPEC over the ten years (2004-2013. This study enables health policy-makers to better understand the factors affecting on infant mortality and thereby take necessary steps in managing and decreasing the infant mortality rate in the studied countries.

  1. The effect of private investment, exports, imports, inflation and GDP on per capita premium: Evidence from members of OPEC countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Reza Abedini

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available In this study, we examine the relationship between GDP, export, import, private sector investment and inflation on insurance per capita of OPEC countries. Insurance is a non-banking institution that by making sure and secure, can make and develop manufacturing and service rendering easier. Insurance companies can make financial steady and reduce stress. So, it plays essential role in economy. For this aim, data over the period 2003-2011 is collected. We use regression and SPSS software for analysis. Results for 80 year – country show that there was a positive and significant correlation between GDP, export, import, inflation and insurance per capita, which shows whenever productivity increases, insurance increases too. Results also show that there was a positive relationship between import and insurance per capita. In addition, results show that there was a positive and significant relationship between inflation and dependent variable. However, there was no significant relationship between exports and insurance per capita. The results show that there was no significant relationship between GDP and insurance per capita and finally, there was a non-significant and negative relationship between private sector investment and insurance per capita.

  2. Practical recommendations for increasing transparency in international gas and coal markets. Report by IEA, IEF and OPEC to G20 Finance Ministers, May 2013

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2013-05-26

    The communique from the G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors meeting held on 5 November 2012 in Mexico City included the following passage: ''We welcome the report prepared by the IEA, the IEF and the OPEC on increasing transparency in international gas and coal markets and ask these organizations to propose practical steps by mid-2013 that G20 countries could take to implement them.'' The attached joint paper represents a collaborative effort by the three international organizations to fulfill the request from the G20. The joint paper was submitted to the G20 on 24 May 2013.

  3. The oil at 50$: reserves depletion or OPEC revenge?; Le petrole a 50$: epuisement des reserves ou revanche de l'OPEP?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Noel, P

    2005-06-15

    Although the oil price is still far from its historical maximum, the oil market is today in crisis. To explain this situation the author discusses the nature of the supply constraints. The reserves are today better known and so more plentiful than at a previous period of the oil history and the russian production since 2004 is stagnating. The main factor seems to be the OPEC policy and in particular the will of limiting the oil production to defend upper prices. (A.L.B.)

  4. OPEC Review, 1996.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elksnin, Nick, Ed.; Elksnin, Linda, Ed.

    1996-01-01

    These four newsletters from the South Carolina Department of Education focus on teaching and serving students with disabilities. The first newsletter includes articles addressing ways that special education professionals can be good to themselves so they can meet the needs of exceptional children; strategies for instructing children with attention…

  5. Oil Producers vulnerability: restrictions for oil supply strategy - OPEC, Mexico and Norway; Indicadores de vulnerabilidade do produtor de petroleo: restricoes a estrategia de oferta - OPEP, Mexico and Norway

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Delgado, Fernanda; Schaeffer, Roberto; Szklo, Alexandre [Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ), RJ (Brazil). Coordenacao dos Programas de Pos-Graduacao de Engenharia (COPPE)

    2008-07-01

    Few analysts address the socio-economic vulnerability faced by large oil producers countries that restricts their oil supply strategies. However, such as net import countries may be vulnerable to oil supply, large oil exporters countries may also become vulnerable due to their socio-economic dependence on oil, as export revenues are so important to their wealth generation and their populations' well-fare status. The objective of this paper is to evaluate the vulnerabilities of some oil exporters as the OPEC's member-countries, Mexico and Norway face, or may face, and that may restrict their degree of freedom for productive decision making (including investments) and for elaborating oil supply strategies (aiming at taking a larger share of the oil revenue). In order to do that this paper is divided in 3 sections. Initially, socio-economic vulnerability indicators for the oil exporting countries are presented, built and analyzed. Socio-economic vulnerability indicators comprehend, for instance, the following dimensions: physical, productive, fiscal, commercial, macroeconomic and social. The next section regards the application of a multi criteria method, the AHP - Analytic Hierarchy Process in order to summarize and organize the indicators. Finally, implications of the socio-economic vulnerabilities of these oil export countries for the world oil supply and price are derived. (author)

  6. Firewood for an OPEC country

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Padilla, A.; Konings, G.; Sanchez, R.; Marcano, E. [Universidad de los Andes, Merida (Venezuela)

    1997-07-01

    This work analyzes some factors of the energy crisis in a town of the Venezuelan Andes (Llano del Hato, 3500 m.a.s.l.). The socioeconomic and climatic conditions in this region make the use of firewood as fuel mandatory. There are extensive deserted areas due to the extraction of plant species for firewood. It has been determined that there are diverse species in the area whose energy potential is superior to that reported in the literature; however, they are incorrectly used and are in danger of extinction. The absence of firewood drives peasants to use manure as a source of fuel. Parallel to the laboratory testing of different raw materials, a program of environmental education and optimization of biomass to obtain energy is under way. It is hoped that pilot plans like this will expand to all of the Andean region. (author)

  7. Long-term maintenance combination chemotherapy with OPEC/MPEC (vincristine or methotrexate, prednisolone, etoposide and cyclophosphamide) or with daily oral etoposide and prednisolone can improve survival and quality of life in adult T-cell leukemia/lymphoma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matsushita, K; Matsumoto, T; Ohtsubo, H; Fujiwara, H; Imamura, N; Hidaka, S; Kukita, T; Tei, C; Matsumoto, M; Arima, N

    1999-12-01

    Acute leukemia and lymphoma varieties of adult T-cell leukemia/lymphoma (ATL) usually carry a poor prognosis. While etoposide is generally useful for treating ATL, especially as a daily oral maintenance regimen, etoposide has not proven effective in severe types of ATL efficient in some patients. Of 87 ATL patients whom we have treated, 51 had acute leukemia, 22 lymphoma and 14 progressive chronic leukemia. Seventy-nine patients were treated with a long term maintenance combination protocol, OPEC/MPEC (weekly doses of vincristine, 0.7 mg/m2 or methotrexate, 14 mg/m2; prednisolone, 20 mg/m2; etoposide, 70 mg/m2 and cyclophosphamide, 200 mg/m2). The other 8 patients, 3 with acute leukemia, 2 with lymphoma and 3 with progressive chronic leukemia, were treated with daily oral administration of 25 mg of etoposide and 10 mg of prednisolone (DOEP). The dose administered was modified in individual cases to maintain the granulocyte count and reduce the number of ATL cells. Considering both protocols, a complete response and a partial response were achieved in 31.0% and 58.6% patients, respectively. Median survival times (MST) of all patients and, acute leukemia, lymphoma and progressive chronic leukemia types were 7.5, 6.7, 9.6 and 12.4 months, respectively. Respective MST of patients treated with OPEC/MPEC or DOEP protocols were 7.1 and 18.0 months. Relatively normal WBC counts, lower lactate dehydrogenase concentration and normal calcium concentration, limited numbers of anatomic sites involved, good performance status and good response to chemotherapy were significantly associated with long survival time. Drug toxicity was not apparent, and about half of patients were treated in an outpatient setting.

  8. Petroleum term markets and OPEC producers countries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bensarsa, F.

    1994-01-01

    The situation of petroleum producers countries in front of term markets is described. With an economics liberalization, policy configuration changing the energetic balance (increasing of american imports, of asiatic demand and developing countries; decreasing of russian production), a more efficient technology, a right management of energetic resources with energy economy, renewable energies and non polluting energies, it is difficult for producers countries to resist at the pressure of financing tools, more and more modern and efficient as they are term markets

  9. The Opec basket price at $21/b

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1996-01-01

    The increase of petroleum prices are explained by speculative buying for a part, others reasons have to be emphasized: the tension between China and Taiwan, the Usa implication in this area and the conflicts risks have increased market excitability. The petroleum demand stays dynamic in Usa, due to a rigorous winter when the petroleum storage has been at the lowest level for twenty years, refiners and distributors being used to work with low storage. Recent declarations of the United Nations secretary, Mister Boutros Boutros-Gali, according to which a lot of problems are still to solve before concluding an agreement with Iraq, have taken the Damocles sword away from petroleum prices. Certainly the petroleum prices are going to decrease but the principle question is to know at which level they will be stabilized. (N.C.). 1 tab

  10. Managing commodity markets: the case of OPEC

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Salman, R.; Ferroukhi, R.

    1993-01-01

    Since primary commodity producers first took control of their natural resources, they have attempted to utilize production/price management with varying degrees of success. As a tool aimed at regulating, rather than controlling, commodity markets, this type of resource management is an essential means of achieving realistic economic returns, which, in the long run, serves the interests of the producer of the commodity in question, as well as its consumer. By regulating commodity markets in times of stable prices producing countries would benefit from a steady and constant level of export earnings, thus allowing them to achieve a sustainable level of economic development. As far as the oil market is concerned, stable prices, set in a range favourable to both producers and consumers, would give investors the confidence needed for long-term exploration. This is particularly important for a commodity such as oil, at a time when the lead time between exploration starting and actual production getting under way is increasing. Not only would producers benefit from stable export earnings, which are an essential requirement for the planning of their development process, but consuming countries would at the same time benefit in two ways: first, they would gain security of supply; and second, as fluctuations in their expenditure for this commodity are reduced, they would be a position to manage their economies more efficiently. (author)

  11. The nuclear power implications of OPEC prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brookes, L.G.

    1975-01-01

    It is generally assumed - not unreasonably - that quadrupling oil prices offers a great opportunity to nuclear power and that installation rates should now be much than if prices had stayed down. It is argued that this view is too facile: the effect of raised oil prices on Western economies is complex and longlasting; nuclear power prospects are at least as likely to be depressed as enhanced - unless more weight is given to long-term strategic factors. (author)

  12. Energy Geopolitics in the Middle East After the Opec Summit

    OpenAIRE

    Çubukçuoğlu, Serhat Süha

    2017-01-01

    The Middle East is home to 65% of OPEC’s oil reserves and, with 32 million b/d, provides just over a third of the global oil supplies. Since 2014, the group of GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council) countries, lead by Saudi Arabia, had seen a worldwide oversupply send prices lower and reduce revenues to government budgets.1 Defending and expanding market share had been the primary goal of the low-cost Middle Eastern states with the aim to squeeze potential...

  13. OPEC: How to transition from black to green gold

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wittmann, Nadine

    2013-01-01

    Global discussions on the reduction of Co 2 emissions and the increasing interest in alternative energy sources and production technologies have started to concern oil exporting nations. International discussions on projects such as Desert Tec might also have sparked their interest to explore a possible diversification of their energy resource production portfolio. However, extremely low in-country retail prices of fossil fuels to date present a significant economic hurdle to such developments. This paper uses a formal model setup accompanied by intuitive graphical illustrations as well as a numerical example to analyze fossil fuel abundant nations′ potential to transition to a supplier of renewable energy as well as possible pitfalls resulting from their status quo situation. -- Highlights: •Global reduction of Co 2 emissions and interest in Green energy of oil exporting nations •Projects, e.g. Desert Tec, cause OPEC′s interest to diversify energy resource production portfolio •Low in-country retail prices of fossil fuels present a significant economic hurdle to Green Energy •Four step analysis – overview, formal model, graphical analysis, numerical example – conducted

  14. OPEC andis nafta hinnale loodetust erineva suuna / Tõnis Oja

    Index Scriptorium Estoniae

    Oja, Tõnis, 1957-

    2005-01-01

    Kuna Naftat Eksportivate Riikide Organisatsioon otsustas suurendada naftatootmist 500 000 barreli võrra ööpäevas, siis kerkis nafta hind 2,6 protsendi võrra, mis on kõigi aegade kõrgeim. Diagramm: Naftabarreli hind on nüüdseks tõusnud juba üle 57 dollari barreli kohta

  15. Prices high, tensions ease and a new OPEC is formed

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon

    2006-01-01

    Crude oil prices rose on news that BP was to shut-in its 400,000 bpd Prudhoe Bay field, following the discovery of corrosion in a pipeline serving the field. Dated BFO went to a record high of $78.72/bbl on 8th August. Speculation that refiners on the US West Coast would seek to replace the lost Alaska North Slope crude with supplies from the Asia/Pacific region caused prices to rise there as well. US crude prices were rather less affected than elsewhere by events in Alaska as it rapidly became clear that stock levels were sufficient to deal with any loss of production. It also emerged that BP was able to keep about half of Prudhoe Bay in production. By that time, however, oil markets had latched on to an entirely different source of worry. The announcement in London that police had uncovered a plot to blow-up aeroplanes crossing the Atlantic led to concerns of a sharp fall in passenger travel. Traders were not simply worried about the effect of this on the demand for jet fuel, but expressed concerns of a more general loss of business confidence across the world. Fears over a fall in jet fuel consumption did not appear to have spread to Singapore, where jet kerosine traded at an all-time high of $91.75/bbl early in August. (author)

  16. Future role of oil and natural gas in OPEC and non-OPEC regions up to and beyond the year 2000

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ismail, I.A.H.

    1992-01-01

    Oil and Natural Gas are very much interrelated. They are both discovered in sedimentary basins and exist in nature in equilibrium under reservoir conditions deep inside the earth. In many cases, they are found associated with each other in the same reservoir rocks, and hence the name 'petroleum' is used to indicate both oil and natural gas. Their ultimate resources in nature are always comparable. It is, therefore, not surprising to find a close link between the price of natural gas and that of crude oil. It must be stated, however, that this parallel between oil and natural gas has its limits, since natural gas, unlike crude oil, is far from being an international commodity that could benefit from international trade on a global scale. In order to project the future role of oil and natural gas, it is essential to consider their past and present performances in the primary energy mix. (author)

  17. OPEC usub analüütikutest erinevalt nafta hinna langusesse / Annika Matson

    Index Scriptorium Estoniae

    Matson, Annika, 1976-

    2004-01-01

    Ilmunud ka: Delovõje Vedomosti 1. sept. lk. 19. Vaherahu sõlmimine. Iraagi sõda langetas nafta hinda maailmaturul. Analüütikud prognoosivad aga nafta nõudluse jätkuva kasvu tõttu hinnatõusu. Kommenteerib Pärt Kivaste. Graafik: Toornafta hinna langus veab alla ka naftafirmade aktsiad. Tabel: Viie suurema hulgas kolm Euroopa naftafirmat

  18. OPEC ähvardab tõsta nafta hinna lakke / Virge Lahe

    Index Scriptorium Estoniae

    Lahe, Virge

    2007-01-01

    Ilmunud ka: Delovõje Vedomosti 13. juuni lk. 29. Naftat Eksportivate Riikide Organisatsioon hoiatas lääneriike, et tõstab biodiisli laialdase kasutuselevõtu korral nafta hinna lakke. Diagramm: Nafta hind; Bensiini hind. Kommenteerib Tõnis Oja

  19. From Climate Antagonists to Low-Carbon Protagonists? The Changing Role of the Gulf OPEC States in the UNICEF

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Micaelowa, Axel; Luomi, Mari

    2012-07-01

    Surging domestic energy consumption in the Gulf region is increasingly threatening oil and gas export revenues. The United Arab Emirates, Qatar and Saudi Arabia are initiating multiple experiments to improve energy efficiency and introduce renewable energy, prompting the emergence of new domestic actors. Still, the legacy of rentierism hinders many of these efforts.The former antagonistic stance of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states in the international climate regime is being replaced by cautious signals of a more constructive engagement, such as in the willingness of Qatar to host COP 18.The resulting opportunities for constructive and innovative dialogues should not be wasted, and premature statements from Northern governments predicting a failure for COP 18 might be counterproductive. Climate diplomacy should instead try to strengthen the position of those groups in favour of new domestic energy policies.Technical support for Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Action (NAMA) pilot projects in the GCC by the EU and other progressive countries in the climate regime could serve as a catalyst for creating sustained synergies between new energy and climate policies in the region.(Author)

  20. High oil prices are here to stay

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Toennesen, Bjoern Inge

    2004-01-01

    The presentation discusses the development in the OPEC countries with emphasis on oil price fluctuation, spare production capacity and OPEC control. The capacity expansion in non-OPEC countries and the global demand development are also surveyed. (tk)

  1. Southeast Asia Report, No. 1248

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    1983-01-01

    ..., Mokhtar To Visit Morocco, Mokhtar Discusses Al-Quds Meeting, Subroto Discusses OPEC Meeting, OPEC To Discuss Quotas, Ambassadors Present Credentials, LAPAN's Launches Succeed, Jakarta Police Commander...

  2. Taxes on petroleum products in western Europe have increased until three times as much as receipts by barrel of OPEC countries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1994-01-01

    If the petroleum prices have increased in Europe and in Japan, that because of costs and profits of refining and distribution and above all because of taxes. In 1984 the part of taxes was 35% ($21/b) and in 1993 the part is 61% ($52.88/b) during this time the petroleum price fell down from 48% ($28.8/b) to 19% ($16.47). The part of costs and profits of companies (refining and distribution) increased from 17% ($10.20/b) to 20% ($17.34/b)

  3. Near-term world oil markets : economics, politics and prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dwarkin, J.

    2002-01-01

    This paper discusses the three main factors that will determine how OPEC oil production will impact on energy markets. OPEC reassured the market in September 2001, following the terrorist attack in New York that it would not cut oil production, but by December 2001, OPEC was threatening that it would cut production unless many key non-OPEC producers collaborated to shore up prices. On January 1, 2002, OPEC members went ahead with a quota reduction, based on pledges of cuts from the non-OPEC oil exporting countries. World economies, oil demand, and the path which the U.S. economy will take during 2002 is critical in determining what happens next in terms of oil production from OPEC. Another important factor is knowing whether non-OPEC producers will actually cut output to a significant extent. The most critical factor will be the response by OPEC members if non-OPEC exporting countries do not keep their promise

  4. Scenarios of diversified power supply in OPEC states, illustrated by the example of Iran. Strategies for conversion to climate-friendly energy sources; Szenarien eines diversifizierten Energieangebots in OPEC-Staaten am Beispiel Irans. Strategien eines auf klimaschonenden Energietraegern basierenden Umstiegs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Supersberger, Nikolaus

    2007-07-02

    Iran is one of the world's biggest petroleum exporting countries and a dominant actor in the Gulf region but in spite of this, the Iran government is faced with the same problems that developing states - and the Gulf states in particular - normally have. Problems on a national scale result mostly from the fact that most of the domestic petroleum production is also produced domestically, so there is less petroleum for exports. Iran's partnership in the international climate regime is particularly interesting as renewable energy is readily available on Iran terrain. This will motivate the country to establish a sustainable energy supply regime. (orig.)

  5. Reference data on world oil markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2005-01-01

    This paper makes a status of the 2004 activity of worldwide oil markets: oil demand, oil supplies (OPEC and non-OPEC countries, unused production capacities), formation of oil prices (role of stockpiles, role of terminal markets, impact of dollar rate), economic data: OPEC objectives, market vision, volatility of prices, supply and demand. (J.S.)

  6. Can reserve additions in mature crude oil provinces attenuate peak oil?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Okullo, S.J.; Reynes, F.G.D.

    2011-01-01

    Following the peak in US crude oil production 30 years ago, more and more non-OPEC producers have seen their production decline as a result of resource depletion. OPEC, on the other hand has extracted a comparatively smaller proportion of its reserve base. Given that new non-OPEC discoveries are

  7. Trends in real costs of crude oil production: the Middle East vs its competitors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stauffer, T.R.

    1994-01-01

    ''Costs'' reflect all exploration and development outlays and include a 15% real rate of return. Costs in itself is generally not a barrier to new developments in OPEC countries. Costs are notably higher for most non-OPEC countries where they do inhibit developments. Mexico and Russia are potentially low cost producers. In the North Sea the cost-price squeeze is crucial. Low prices have forestalled net increases in new non-OPEC production. (author)

  8. Short‑Term and Long‑Term Relationships Between Prices of Imported Oil and Fuel Products in the U. S.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Václav Adamec

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available In this study, we analyzed a system of five monthly time series integrated I(1: average price of crude oil imported to the U.S. from OPEC countries (Opec, imported oil price from other than OPEC countries (NonOpec in USD per barrel, average price of regular gasoline in the U.S. (Regular, premium quality gasoline price (Premium and kerosene price (Kerosene in U.S. cents per gallon. Cointegration was established by EG test and the series were analyzed by VECM model with lag selected via BIC criterion. Cointegration rank was determined by the Johansen procedure. According to VECM coefficients, prices of oil from OPEC countries and beyond OPEC exert influence upon all commodity prices in the system, but in a contradictory manner. Responses to innovation shocks in Opec and NonOpec stabilized within 8 to 10 months upon a nonzero shift and further became permanent. Innovation shock in both types of gasoline and Kerosene had only short-term significant impact upon the system. Forecast error variance in all variables is explained mainly by variation in oil prices, especially Opec, which persists with increased horizon. For a short horizon h = 1, FEVDs in gasoline and kerosene prices are primarily made of variation in the respective fuel prices.

  9. Latest oil data, trends and prospects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tempest, Paul

    1996-01-01

    Reserves of crude oil, especially in non-opec areas continue to grow steadily. OPEC, however, remains dominant in the international trade of oil. Oil production, too, is buoyant, with expansion in OPEC running at 0.7% for 1994 and non-OPEC production expansion at 4.2%. Overall demand for oil also rose (by 1.7%), a sharp fall in CIS state consumption notwithstanding. Import dependence continues to grow. Heavy investment by the petroleum industry in production, transportation and processing is expected over the next thirty years. However, oil's share of the world energy mix continues to be eroded by nuclear power, gas and coal, despite adequate supplies. (UK)

  10. Oil outlook to 2020

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lounnas, R.; Brennand, G.

    2002-01-01

    The latest oil outlook to the year 2020 is presented, using the OPEC World Energy Model (OWEM). In the reference case, the OPEC Reference Basket of seven crudes is assumed to remain within the declared price range of US dollars 22-28 per barrel, in nominal terms, for the rest of this decade, growing with inflation thereafter. World oil demand grows from 76 million barrels a day in 2000 to 89 mb/d by 2010, and to over 106 mb/d by 2020. Two-thirds of the increase in demand over this 20-year period comes from China and the developing countries. Non-OPEC production is expected to continue to increase throughout the entire forecast period, with the decline in North Sea output more than compensated by increases in the developing countries, Russia and the Caspian region. OPEC market share in the first decade is accordingly relatively stable, as increases in output are approximately matched by higher non-OPEC supply. In the following ten years, however, it becomes increasingly inevitable that OPEC market share will increase, as the net rise in non-OPEC output slows. The net investment requirement will need to cover both additional capacity and the maintenance of the existing production potential. For OPEC alone, the estimate is around 10 billion dollars a year during this period. Substantially higher or lower oil prices than the assumed values for the reference case are shown not only to generate lower OPEC export revenue, but also to be unsustainable. (Author)

  11. Modelling the world oil market: Assessment of a quarterly econometric model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dees, Stephane; Karadeloglou, Pavlos; Kaufmann, Robert K.; Sanchez, Marcelo

    2007-01-01

    This paper describes a structural econometric model of the world oil market that can be used to analyse oil market developments and risks. Oil demand depends on domestic economic activity and the real price of oil. Oil supply for non-OPEC producers, based on competitive behaviours, is constrained by geological and institutional conditions. Oil prices are determined by a 'price rule' that includes market conditions and OPEC behaviour. Policy simulations indicate that oil demand and non-OPEC supply are rather inelastic to changes in price, while OPEC decisions about quota and capacity utilisation have a significant, immediate impact on oil prices

  12. Trends in real costs of crude oil production: The Middle East vs its competitors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stauffer, T.R.

    1993-01-01

    The costs of oil production in the major areas of the world, including both OPEC and non-OPEC countries are discussed. The success of Saudi Arabia's policy of squeezing out non-OPEC oil by unilaterally cutting prices is assessed by examining the variation in costs of production within OPEC, between OPEC and non-OPEC producers, whether there are producing areas which are cost-constrained, whether non-OPEC development has been curbed, and whether lack of capital might constrain future production, especially in OPEC states. It is concluded that low prices have been only partially successful, because in most areas the full-cycle cost of new oil production is still less than the current oil price, even allowing for a 15% rate of return. Low prices have limited new oil development only in the North Sea, the U.S. and Canada, while Oman and Malaysia continue to expand. The pace of drilling has been affected by low prices, and net increases in non-OPEC output has been forestalled. 4 figs

  13. Oil geopolitics and its implications to the production and technological strategies for the usage of brazilian oil resources; Geopolitica do petroleo e suas implicacoes sobre as estrategias produtivas e tecnologicas para o aproveitamento dos recursos petroliferos nacionais

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Machado, Giovani [Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ), RJ (Brazil). Coordenacao dos Programas de Pos-graduacao de Engenharia (COPPE). Programa de Planejamento Energetico. Programa de Recursos Humanos da ANP, PRH-21

    2004-07-01

    This study evaluates the implications of different geopolitics scenarios over the productive and technological strategies for exploiting national oil resources. Initially, it discusses the international oil market fundamentals, focusing the dynamics of the light-heavy prices differential. Then, it analysis the effects three possible scenarios over such market fundamentals: Strong OPEC due to 'reinforcement of the price band mechanism discipline'; Weak OPEC due to 'market contestation' (productive empowerment of non-OPEC countries or quitting of OPEC member-countries interested in getting more productive autonomy - such as Algeria, Nigeria and, eventually, Iraq); and, Weak OPEC due to 'strategies to reduce geopolitics vulnerability' (minimization of supply disruption risks). Afterwards, it evaluates the impacts of those scenarios over the productive and technological strategies for exploiting national oil resources. Finally, it concludes that the scenarios of Strong OPEC and Weak OPEC due to 'strategies to reduce geopolitics vulnerability' are the most favorable for the exploitation of national oil resources, whilst the scenario Weak OPEC due to 'market contestation' would challenge the oil companies operating in the country to generate productive and technology strategies which strongly promotes E and P cost reduction in Brazil in order to maintain the competitiveness of the national oil. (author)

  14. Oil supply and demand

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Babusiaux, D

    2004-07-01

    Following the military intervention in Iraq, it is taking longer than expected for Iraqi exports to make a comeback on the market. Demand is sustained by economic growth in China and in the United States. OPEC is modulating production to prevent inventory build-up. Prices have stayed high despite increased production by non-OPEC countries, especially Russia. (author)

  15. Impact on world oil prices when larger and fewer producers emerge from a political restructuring of the Middle East

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wirl, F.

    1992-01-01

    We investigate how a redistribution of oil reserves among a (probably reduced) set of producers affects OPEC's oil extraction policies and thus international crude oil-prices. The empirical investigation shows that this impact is fairly small, as long as OPEC members do not cooperate. Only cooperation will have a substantial impact. (author)

  16. A long run intertemporal model of the oil market with uncertainty and strategic interaction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lensberg, T.; Rasmussen, H.

    1991-06-01

    This paper describes a model of the long run price uncertainty in the oil market. The main feature of the model is that the uncertainty about OPEC's price strategy is assumed to be generated not by irrational behavior on the part of OPEC, but by uncertainty about OPEC's size and time preference. The control of OPEC's pricing decision is assumed to shift among a set of OPEC-types over time according to a stochastic process, with each type implementing that price strategy which best fits the interests of its supporters. The model is fully dynamic on the supply side in the sense that all oil producers are assumed to understand the working of OPEC and the oil market, in particular, the non-OPEC producers base their investment decisions on rational price expectations. On the demand side, we assume that the market insight is less developed on the average, and model it by means of a long run demand curve on current prices and a simple lag structure. The long run demand curve for crude oil is generated by a fairly detailed static long-run equilibrium model of the product markets. Preliminary experience with the model indicate that prices are likely to stay below 20 dollars in the foreseeable future, but that prices around 30 dollars may occur if the present long run time perspective of OPEC is abandoned in favor of a more short run one. 26 refs., 4 figs., 7 tabs

  17. After the oil price collapse

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kohl, W.L.

    1991-01-01

    In this book, the authors focus on issues that include the extremely high prices following the second oil shock, the resulting decline in oil demand and the increase in non-OPEC production, reduced industry concentration, OPEC's subsequent attempt to regain market share; and the resulting free-for-all of competitive pricing

  18. Naftakartell hädas kasvanud nõudluse rahuldamisega / Tõnis Oja

    Index Scriptorium Estoniae

    Oja, Tõnis, 1957-

    2004-01-01

    Vaatamata OPEC-i otsusele suurendada naftatootmist 2 miljoni barreli võrra ööpäevas, on eelkõige Hiina kiire majanduskasvu ja USA tarbimise püsiva suurenemise tõttu nõudlus jätkuvalt pakkumisest suurem. Diagramm: OPEC loodab toodangukvootide suurendamisega nafta hinnatõusu peatada

  19. Gaasiriigid astusid sammukese ühise kartelli loomise suunas / Krister Paris

    Index Scriptorium Estoniae

    Paris, Krister, 1977-

    2007-01-01

    Alžeeria energia- ja kaevanduste ministri Chakib Kheli sõnul liigutakse kaugemas perspektiivis gaasi-OPEC-i suunas, OPEC-i laadse klubi moodustamist on autori sõnul edendanud ka Iraan ja Venezuela. EL tunneb võimaliku kartelli loomise pärast muret, samas ei pruugi kartelli moodustamine ekspertide hinnangul lihtne olla

  20. The Effect of Political Campaigns

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Kasper Møller

    between the theoretical considerations and empirical data. Finally, the paper presents how these models are operationalized in the questionnaires and experiments of the project Online Panel of Electoral Campaigning (OPEC). The paper is part of a five years research project, OPEC, which is set out...

  1. Response strategies for oil producers in the face of environmental taxation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Walker, I.O.; Brennand, G.J.

    1993-01-01

    The impact of environmental taxes on the oil export revenues of developing countries, particularly OPEC, is considered; the possibility of amelioration through production management is investigated. A model of oil market dynamics is considered and applied to for different tax secenarios. These are a base case scenario where no environmental tax is imposed; an unmanaged market where a $100/t of carbon tax is imposed in all OECD regions and the resulting fall in oil demand is absorbed by OPEC, thereby keeping oil prices at base case levels; a partially managed market where the same tax is imposed, but only OPEC responds by reducing oil production even further to maintain base case revenue; a totally managed market where the same tax is imposed but both OPEC and non-OPEC agree to manage and control the market. The conclusions reached is that as long as OPEC is not able to target a revenue-maximizing path, a totally managed market is likely to prove beneficial to all developing country producers with a much more manageable, higher than base case price in a partially managed market. If, however, OPEC were able to implement a revenue-maximizing course, there would be no need for total management, since non-OPEC revenue would be concomitantly maximized. (2 tables, 4 figures). (UK)

  2. Oil supply and demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Babusiaux, D.

    2004-01-01

    Following the military intervention in Iraq, it is taking longer than expected for Iraqi exports to make a comeback on the market. Demand is sustained by economic growth in China and in the United States. OPEC is modulating production to prevent inventory build-up. Prices have stayed high despite increased production by non-OPEC countries, especially Russia. (author)

  3. Modelling long-term oil price and extraction with a Hubbert approach: The LOPEX model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rehrl, Tobias; Friedrich, Rainer

    2006-01-01

    The LOPEX (Long-term Oil Price and EXtraction) model generates long-term scenarios about future world oil supply and corresponding price paths up to the year 2100. In order to determine oil production in non-OPEC countries, the model uses Hubbert curves. Hubbert curves reflect the logistic nature of the discovery process and the associated constraint on temporal availability of oil. Extraction paths and world oil price path are both derived endogenously from OPEC's intertemporally optimal cartel behaviour. Thereby OPEC is faced with both the price-dependent production of the non-OPEC competitive fringe and the price-dependent world oil demand. World oil demand is modelled with a constant price elasticity function and refers to a scenario from ACROPOLIS-POLES. LOPEX results indicate a significant higher oil price from around 2020 onwards compared to the reference scenario, and a stagnating market share of maximal 50% to be optimal for OPEC

  4. Taxes on petroleum products in western Europe have increased until three times as much as receipts by barrel of OPEC countries; Les taxes sur les produits petroliers en Europe Occidentale ont grimpe a plus du triple des recettes par baril des pays OPEP

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Anon,

    1994-12-16

    If the petroleum prices have increased in Europe and in Japan, that because of costs and profits of refining and distribution and above all because of taxes. In 1984 the part of taxes was 35% ($21/b) and in 1993 the part is 61% ($52.88/b) during this time the petroleum price fell down from 48% ($28.8/b) to 19% ($16.47). The part of costs and profits of companies (refining and distribution) increased from 17% ($10.20/b) to 20% ($17.34/b).

  5. Oil demand continues to grow in the U.S. and worldwide

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tippee, B.; Beck, R.J.

    1995-01-01

    Rising oil consumption is challenging the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries production quota--but not the group's ability to meet demand. In the second half of 1995, the oil market will continue to need more oil from OPEC members than the group claims to be willing to produce with its quota at 24.52 million b/d. If the quota really limited supply, ingredients would be in place for a significant price hike. Growth in a non-OPEC production intensities temptations on OPEC members to cheat on quotas and has become a key factor in the market. OPEC producers have seen that if they don't meet incremental demand at the current price, other producers will. OPEC eventually will have to raise its quota or acknowledge that the artificial production limit lacks meaning. At present, the only real limit to supply is production capacity, which remains in excess relative to demand and which has demonstrated its ability to grow both within and outside of OPEC when prices rise. The paper discusses worldwide trends, pressures on OPEC, world crude prices, US prices, natural gas prices, US energy demand, natural gas use, gas supply, US demand for petroleum products, imports, and inventories

  6. Effects of spermatozoa-oviductal cell coincubation time and oviductal cell age on spermatozoa-oviduct interactions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aldarmahi, Ahmed; Elliott, Sarah; Russell, Jean; Fazeli, Alireza

    2014-01-01

    The oviduct plays a crucial role in sperm storage, maintenance of sperm viability and sperm transport to the site of fertilisation. The aim of the present study was to investigate the effects of oviductal cell culture passage number, oviductal cell age and spermatozoa-oviduct coincubation times on gene expression in oviductal cells. Immortalised oviductal epithelial cells (OPEC) obtained from two different cell passages (36 and 57) were subcultured three times with and without spermatozoa for 24 h (control group). In a second study, OPEC were cocultured with spermatozoa for different time intervals (0, 4, 12 and 24 h). Expression of adrenomedullin (ADM), heat shock 70 kDa protein 8 (HSPA8) and prostaglandin E synthase (PGES) in OPEC was measured by quantitative polymerase chain reaction. The expression of ADM and HSPA8 was decreased significantly in OPEC cells from Passage 57, particularly in the later subculture group. These effects on HSPA8, but not ADM, expression in OPEC were further altered after coculture with spermatozoa for 24 h. We also demonstrated that spermatozoa-oviduct coculture for 12 and 24 h resulted in significantly higher expression of ADM, HSPA8 and PGES in OPEC. Overall, the data suggest that the OPEC lose some of their properties as a result of oviductal cell aging and that there are spermatozoa-oviduct interactions leading to increased oviductal cell gene expression.

  7. Can reserve additions in mature crude oil provinces attenuate supply-side peak oil?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Okullo, Samuel; Reynes, Frederic

    2010-09-15

    More often, oil supply has been modeled on the basis of resource availability and demand. The impact of strategy between oil producers has largely been ignored or overly simplified. In this paper, we formulate a model that embodies a weak and strong OPEC for varied rates of reserve additions. With this economic equilibrium model which has the capability to generate a supply side peak in oil production, we show that although reserves of conventional crude oil may seem abundant. OPEC has the ability to lead to substantial crude oil reserve depletion in non-OPEC countries by 2050 given likely depletion rates.

  8. Petroleum abundance until when

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Appert, O.

    1996-01-01

    The petroleum demand goes on to increase. In front of this demand the non Opec supply increases because of new positive explorations, new technologies and a reduction of exploration-production prices. With 10% of worldwide reserves, OECD insures 30% of worldwide production. With 18% of reserves, the non-Opec world insures 48% of worldwide needs. But a return on Middle East where are 65% of reserves is inescapable but it can be all the more brutal since non Opec world consumes its own resources more quickly. 7 figs

  9. Energy crisis? Are we headed for a new countershock?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Babusiaux, D.; Rech, O.

    2001-01-01

    This article focuses on forecasts of crude oil prices and examines the impacts of petroleum resources, production costs including environmental costs, the position of oil producing groups of counties such as OPEC, world oil demand, and non-OPEC and OPEC production capacities on the price. The possibility of countershocks with downward consumption forecasts and production capacities overtaking demand is discussed, and the desirability of price relaxation leading to sustainable prices with growth rate of production capacity paralleling growth rate of demand is considered

  10. An analysis of factors affecting price volatility of the US oil market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yang, C.W.; Hwang, M.J.; Huang, B.N.

    2002-01-01

    This paper studies the price volatility of the crude oil market by examining the market structure of OPEC, the stable and unstable demand structure, and related elasticity of demand. In particular, the impacts of prosperity and recession of the world economy and the resulting demand shift on crude oil price are investigated. The error correction model is used to estimate the demand relations and related elasticity. The income effect on demand functions is evaluated to shed light on future prices. A simulation of potential oil prices under different scenarios on a cut of one million barrels per day by OPEC is evaluated. From our simulation, given the 4% cut in OPEC production, the oil price is expected to increase unless the recession is severe. The magnitude and scope of a price hike would be diminished if non-OPEC or domestic production were greatly expanded

  11. Oil price, capital mobility and oil importers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gonzalez-Romero, A.

    1992-01-01

    A three-region, three-commodity general equilibrium model is constructed to explore the impact of OPEC's pricing policies on major macro variables of importer economies. The aim of this paper is to explore general macro characteristics of the trading economies to aid understanding of the world economy response after OPEC I and OPEC II in terms of the evolution of North - South terms of trade, rates of profit and output levels. We support the view of a world economy in a three regions setting, North - South - OPEC. The analysis increases our understanding of why regions respond differently to the same external shock and how from different regimes of capital mobility we should derive alternative policy implications. With the current rise in oil prices, the topic promises to be relevant for some time, although the direction of the shocks has been reserved. (Author)

  12. World market of crude oil - review of possible scenarios of forecasting for the crude oil price movement

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Janevski, Risto

    2003-01-01

    Throughout most of 2002, crude oil prices were solidly within the range preferred by producers in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), $22 to $28 per barrel for the OPEC 'basket price' (Fig. 1). OPEC producers have been demonstrating disciplined adherence to announced cutbacks in production. Early in 2003, a dramatic upward turn in crude oil prices was brought about by a combination of two factors. First, a general strike against the Chavez regime resulted in a sudden drop in Venezuela's oil exports. Although other OPEC producers agreed to increase production to make up for the lost Venezuelan output, the obvious strain on worldwide spare capacity kept prices high. Second, price volatility was exacerbated by fears of war in Iraq. (Original)

  13. Kas nafta hind kukub 40 dollarile või tõuseb 70-80 dollarini? / John Mauldin

    Index Scriptorium Estoniae

    Mauldin, John

    2007-01-01

    Ilmunud ka: Finansovõi Menedzhment : infovõpusk nr. 11 veebr. lk. 19. Seoses nafta hinna langemisega soovib OPEC vähendada naftatootmist, kuid seni on soostunud tootmist piirama ainult Saudi Araabia

  14. Prepare(d) for impact. PV cost reduction and beyond

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sinke, Wim C. [ECN Solar Energy and European Photovoltaic Technology Platform, Petten (Netherlands)

    2012-11-01

    This paper investigates rationale explanations of OPEC's strategies. Accounting for market characteristics in particular the sluggishness of demand and supply allows to explain price jumps as rational OPEC strategies from a narrow economic perspective (up and down) as well as from political objectives (at least up) due to the political payoff from standing up against the 'West'. Although the temptation to accrue this political payoff was and remains high, the narrow economic profit motive coupled with an imperfect cooperation among OPEC members explains past price volatility and high prices much better than the usual reference to political events. A more specific prediction is that OPEC will switch back to setting prices since the current quantity strategy encourages oil importing countries to appropriate rents in particular in connection with the need to mitigate global warming. (orig.)

  15. The Next Energy Crisis: U.S. National Security Vulnerability in the 1990s

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Craig, Derek K

    1990-01-01

    .... Many analysts argue the situation has changed radically from the 1970s because U.S. imports are more diversified, there are greater supplies available outside of OPEC and the Middle East, and there is...

  16. CO{sub 2}-capture in coal based IGCC power plants

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Van Aart, F.; Fleuren, W.; Kamphuis, H.; Ploumen, P.; Jelles, S. [KEMA, Arnhem (Netherlands)

    2007-07-01

    The paper discusses IGCC with carbon capture and storage (CCS), both for retrofit and capture ready plants. The penalties for carbon dioxide capture are given, along with its effect on CAPEX and OPEC costs. 3 refs., 9 figs.

  17. Tohle vstoupí do učebnic

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Cílek, Václav

    2015-01-01

    Roč. 2015, č. 5 (2015), s. 80-85 ISSN 2336-4092 Keywords : energy commodities * oil * oil production * oil price * OPEC * politics * world economy * price developments * state revenue * gold * iron ore Subject RIV: AH - Economics

  18. New trends in Saudi Oil policy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Akins, J E

    1985-01-01

    It is deplorable that the United States and other importing countries persist in viewing OPEC as the enemy. The OPEC plan, at least insofar as Yamani has outlined it (and it seems to be acceptable to other OPEC countries), is reasonable and should be supported by consumers as well as exporters. There should be some understanding, at least in governmental circles, of the ultimate consequences of the collapse of the price of oil, not only the effects it would have on major friendly oil exporters such as Mexico, Nigeria and Venezuela, but the consequences it would have on the banking system, and most important what would happen to long-term supply and demand. Unfortunately there is no indication of any understanding or any appreciation of OPEC's positive role or of the benign nature of the Yamani plan.

  19. The effect of uncertainty and aggregate investments on crude oil price dynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tvedt, Jostein

    2002-01-01

    This paper is a study of the dynamics of the oil industry and we derive a mean reverting process for the crude oil price. Oil is supplied by a market leader, OPEC, and by an aggregate that represents non-OPEC producers. The non-OPEC producers take the oil price as given. The cost of non-OPEC producers depends on past investments. Shifts in these investments are influenced by costs of structural change in the construction industry. A drop in the oil price to below a given level triggers lower investments, but if the oil price reverts back to a high level investments may not immediately expand. In an uncertain oil demand environment cost of structural change creates a value of waiting to invest. This investment behaviour influences the oil price process

  20. The outlook for US oil dependence

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Greene, D.L.; Jones, D.W.; Leiby, P.N.

    1995-05-11

    Market share OPEC lost in defending higher prices from 1979-1985 is being steadily regained and is projected to exceed 50% by 2000. World oil markets are likely to be as vulnerable to monopoly influence as they were 20 years ago, as OPEC regains lost market share. The U.S. economy appears to be as exposed as it was in the early 1970s to losses from monopoly oil pricing. A simulated 2-year supply reduction in 2005-6 boosts OPEC revenues by roughly half a trillion dollars and costs the U.S. economy an approximately equal amount. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve appears to be of little benefit against such a determined, multi-year supply curtailment either in reducing OPEC revenues or protecting the U.S. economy. Increasing the price elasticity of oil demand and supply in the U.S. and the rest of the world, however, would be an effective strategy.

  1. The Outlook for U.S. Oil Dependence

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Greene, D.L.

    1995-01-01

    Market share OPEC lost in defending higher prices from 1979-1985 is being steadily regained and is projected to exceed 50% by 2000. World oil markets are likely to be as vulnerable to monopoly influence as they were 20 years ago, as OPEC regains lost market share. The US economy appears to be as exposed as it was in the early 1970s to losses from monopoly oil pricing. A simulated 2-year supply reduction in 2005-6 boosts OPEC revenues by roughly half a trillion dollars and costs the US economy an approximately equal amount. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve appears to be of little benefit against such a determined, multi-year supply curtailment either in reducing OPEC revenues or protecting the US economy. Increasing the price elasticity of oil demand and supply in the US and the rest of the world, however, would be an effective strategy.

  2. The new 'base case' : how low can it go?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Terry, S.

    1999-01-01

    The outlook for global demand for crude oil at various prices was examined. A cost curve for existing world crude oil production based on full and marginal operating costs was derived. Shut-in of existing production at low oil prices based on assessed marginal operating costs was estimated. Total OPEC revenues based on call on OPEC production at different prices were determined from 1990 to the present and projected at different price scenarios to 2005. 4 figs

  3. The composite barrel of retail prices and its relationship to crude oil prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Balabanoff, S.

    1993-01-01

    This paper challenges assumptions about the relationship between refinery gate prices, retail prices paid by consumers and crude oil prices. The analysis presented here considers their relationship within the context of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries' (OPEC's) composite barrel statistics, which includes taxes and other government policy effects on prices. Speed of adjustment and retail price response to taxes are analysed with respect to crude import prices. OPEC's composite barrel is explained and evaluated. Test results are summarized. (UK)

  4. Handbook on energy conservation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1989-12-01

    This book shows energy situation in recent years, which includes reserves of energy resource in the world, crude oil production records in OPEC and non OPEC, supply and demand of energy in important developed countries, prospect of supply and demand of energy and current situation of energy conservation in developed countries. It also deals with energy situation in Korea reporting natural resources status, energy conservation policy, measurement for alternative energy, energy management of Korea, investment in equipment and public education for energy conservation.

  5. Reserve growth of the world's giant oil fields

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klett, T.R.; Schmoker, J.W.

    2005-01-01

    Analysis of estimated total recoverable oil volume (field size) of 186 well-known giant oil fields of the world (>0.5 billion bbl of oil, discovered prior to 1981), exclusive of the United States and Canada, demonstrates general increases in field sizes through time. Field sizes were analyzed as a group and within subgroups of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and non-OPEC countries. From 1981 through 1996, the estimated volume of oil in the 186 fields for which adequate data were available increased from 617 billion to 777 billion bbl of oil (26%). Processes other than new field discoveries added an estimated 160 billion bbl of oil to known reserves in this subset of the world's oil fields. Although methods for estimating field sizes vary among countries, estimated sizes of the giant oil fields of the world increased, probably for many of the same reasons that estimated sizes of oil fields in the United States increased over the same time period. Estimated volumes in OPEC fields increased from a total of 550 billion to 668 billion bbl of oil and volumes in non-OPEC fields increased from 67 billion to 109 billion bbl of oil. In terms of percent change, non-OPEC field sizes increased more than OPEC field sizes (63% versus 22%). The changes in estimated total recoverable oil volumes that occurred within three 5-year increments between 1981 and 1996 were all positive. Between 1981 and 1986, the increase in estimated total recoverable oil volume within the 186 giant oil fields was 11 billion bbl of oil; between 1986 and 1991, the increase was 120 billion bbl of oil; and between 1991 and 1996, the increase was 29 billion bbl of oil. Fields in both OPEC and non-OPEC countries followed trends of substantial reserve growth.

  6. Panorama 2016 - Oil situation in 2015 and trends

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maisonnier, Guy

    2015-12-01

    In 2015, the price of Brent stood at approximately $52/bbl on average, down nearly 50% compared to the previous year. Surplus oil on the market is the reason behind this downward correction, resulting from significant production of US shale oil (LTO). OPEC's failure to cut supply, part of its strategy established in November 2014, continues to exacerbate the pressure on prices. OPEC strategy and the potential of LTO will be decisive when identifying future trends. (author)

  7. Prospects for world oil supply

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Esser, R.W.

    1991-01-01

    Surprises lie ahead for world oil supplies, which are expected to increase rapidly throughout the 1990s before leveling off by the end of the century. The extent of this increase could be the major surprise of the decade. Large increases in the capacity in Gulf countries accompanied by smaller increases in the non-Middle East OPEC countries will be augmented by a gradual increase in non-OPEC capacity into the late 1990s. By 2000, declining capacity in the latter two areas will offset continued capacity increases in the Gulf countries. Overall capacity in the non-OPEC countries (excluding China, Eastern Europe, and the Soviet Union), is expected to increase by 1.1 million BOPD from the low point in the early 1990s to a mid 1990s peak. The increase will be led by a large increase in capacity from the United Kingdom and smaller contributions from the non-Middle East OPEC countries and Mexico. In the forecast, emphasis has been placed on a detailed evaluation of recent significant discoveries made in non-OPEC countries and non-Middle East OPEC countries since 1983, which when taken together, are expected to add 8 million BOPD new capacity as soon as 1995. These discoveries have taken place in both existing and evolving exploration hotspots that are expected to receive increasing industry emphasis in the 1990s

  8. Drewry: Mideast in firm control of world oil supplies for 1990s

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1993-01-01

    Surging economic growth in the Far East will push up world crude oil demand steadily in the 1990s despite the current economic downturn. It will fall to members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries to meet that increased demand, given the expected decline in non-OPEC production. And because OPEC members in the Persian Gulf region are best positioned to meet the increase, the balance of power in oil markets will shift even more in favor of the Middle East. Seaborne oil exports from the Middle East will jump almost 30% by 1997 from 1991 levels. There will be a worldwide rise of 16% in the volume of seaborne crude oil trade, with a 29% hike in movements of refined products by tanker. Those are among the findings of a report by Drewry Shipping Consultants Ltd., London. Drewry said, It is expected that 1992 will be a low point in non-OPEC output and that production levels will recover steadily from 1993 onward, although not rapidly enough to match the anticipated rise in demand. Drewry estimates non-OPEC production in 1997 at 37.1 million b/d vs. 38.1 million b/d in 1991. With non-OPEC production falling by 2.6% between 1991 and 1997, OPEC producers will have the scope to increase their output by almost 32% over the same period

  9. Correlation between in vitro and in vivo antifungal activities in experimental fluconazole-resistant oropharyngeal and esophageal candidiasis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walsh, T J; Gonzalez, C E; Piscitelli, S; Bacher, J D; Peter, J; Torres, R; Shetti, D; Katsov, V; Kligys, K; Lyman, C A

    2000-06-01

    Oropharyngeal and esophageal candidiasis (OPEC) is a frequent opportunistic mycosis in immunocompromised patients. Azole-resistant OPEC is a refractory form of this infection occurring particularly in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected patients. The procedures developed by the Antifungal Subcommittee of the National Committee for Clinical Laboratory Standards (NCCLS) are an important advance in standardization of in vitro antifungal susceptibility methodology. In order to further understand the relationship between NCCLS methodology and antifungal therapeutic response, we studied the potential correlation between in vitro susceptibility to fluconazole and in vivo response in a rabbit model of fluconazole-resistant OPEC. MICs of fluconazole were determined by NCCLS methods. Three fluconazole-susceptible (FS) (MIC, /=64 microgram/ml) isolates of Candida albicans from prospectively monitored HIV-infected children with OPEC were studied. FR isolates were recovered from children with severe OPEC refractory to fluconazole, and FS isolates were recovered from those with mucosal candidiasis responsive to fluconazole. Fluconazole at 2 mg/kg of body weight/day was administered to infected animals for 7 days. The concentrations of fluconazole in plasma were maintained above the MICs for FS isolates throughout the dosing interval. Fluconazole concentrations in the esophagus were greater than or equal to those in plasma. Rabbits infected with FS isolates and treated with fluconazole had significant reductions in oral mucosal quantitative cultures (P OPEC due to C. albicans.

  10. Long-term prospects for oil market stability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Subroto, Dr [OPEC, Vienna (AT)

    1989-10-01

    OPEC recognize that energy consumption has its social costs and benefits, and that some energy sources impose fewer costs on society. We must consider the environmental implications of oil extraction. Our policies today should enable future generations to secure their energy needs, and OPEC is well-positioned to supply them. An inward-looking OPEC, distracted by internal wranglings and inconsistencies, cannot expect to be a stabilizing force in the oil markets. We have sought, therefore, to put our own house in order. Aside from the debate on depletion policy, a major strain on OPEC stability is the growing tendency towards regionalization in the world oil market. And the absence of universally acceptable quota allocation criteria means that OPEC may have to live with instability for some time to come, but this will be manageable in the short run. In the medium term, however, the call on OPEC oil in the 1990s is predicted to rise to a level commensurate with the sustainable capacities of member states. Producers and consumers have a common interest and should share a similar perspective on the inter-dependence between energy, the environment and economic development. (author).

  11. Oil Dependence: The Value of R{ampersand}D

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Greene, D.L.

    1997-07-01

    Over the past quarter century the United States` dependence on oil has cost its economy on the order of $5 trillion. Oil dependence is defined as economically significant consumption of oil, given price inelastic demand in the short and long run and given the ability of the OPEC cartel to use market power to influence oil prices. Although oil prices have been lower and more stable over the past decade, OPEC still holds the majority of the world`s conventional oil resources according to the best available estimates. OPEC`s share of the world oil market is likely to grow significantly in the future,restoring much if not all of their former market power. Other than market share, the key determinants of OPEC`s market power are the long and short run price elasticities of world oil demand and supply. These elasticities depend critically on the technologies of oil supply and demand, especially the technology of energy use in transportation. Research and development can change these elasticities in fundamental ways, and given the nature of the problem,the government has an important role to play in supporting such research.

  12. The rapid growth of OPEC′s domestic oil consumption

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gately, Dermot; Al-Yousef, Nourah; Al-Sheikh, Hamad M.H.

    2013-01-01

    OPEC′s domestic oil consumption has increased seven-fold in 40 years, to 8.5 million barrels per day (mbd). They consume almost as much oil as China. This constitutes one-fourth of their production. Such rapid growth in consumption (5.1% annually, faster than their income growth of 3.1%) will challenge OPEC′s ability to increase their oil exports, which are relied upon in long-term world oil projections by the International Energy Agency (IEA), US Department of Energy (DOE/EIA) and British Petroleum (BP). However, these institutions assume unprecedented slowdowns in OPEC oil consumption – to less than 2% in the future – allowing them to project increases in OPEC oil exports with only modest increases in production. We analyze 1971–2010 data econometrically, with panel co-integration methods. We estimate that the income elasticity of consumption is about 1 for energy and oil. This means that OPEC′s energy and oil consumption will grow as rapidly as their income. Hence, continued high growth rates for domestic oil consumption are more likely than the unprecedented slowdowns projected by IEA, DOE/EIA and BP – adding an extra 6 mbd of OPEC consumption in 2030. This will have major implications for OPEC production and export levels, and for world oil prices. -- Highlights: •We analyze rapid growth of OPEC oil consumption (sevenfold since 1971: 5.1% annually). •Panel co-integration econometric estimate of income elasticity about 1.0. •Consensus projections (IEA, DOE/EIA) have consistently under projected OPEC consumption. •Future oil market implications if OPEC consumption grows as fast as income (as in past)

  13. Saudi Arabia plans future strategy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roberts, John.

    1996-01-01

    The future strategy of Saudi Arabia with respect to its oil production capacity is discussed. A major uncertainty affecting planning is the prospect of an Iraqi return to the market as and when Saddam Hussein falls or he manages to comply fully with all the UN resolutions and sanctions are lifted. It is believed that Iraq could at very short notice be capable of exporting 2mb/d of crude rising to 2.5 mb/d within a few months. This is 10% of OPEC's physically traded crude. Also taken seriously are Baghdad's assertions that Iraq will have a production capacity of about 6mb/d by the year 2000. Saudi officials are concerned that OPEC is not ready to tackle the impact of an Iraqi return to the market at a time when some OPEC members are producing above quota anyway. The most likely outcome is thought to be that OPEC would simply raise their nominal production ceiling. Against this background, Saudi Arabia has embarked on the exploitation of the gigantic oil reserves of the Shaybah field. This development offers the kingdom an ability, on the one hand, to increase its earnings while remaining within its OPEC quota and, on the other hand, to increase output substantially should it ever appear that its best interests are served by not adhering to quotas. (UK)

  14. World oil flow steady in 1992; stable market ahead for 1993

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beck, R.J.

    1993-01-01

    World crude oil production in 1992 was virtually unchanged from 1991. Production last year averaged 59.96 million b/d, up only 17,000 b/d from 1991. Substantial production declines in the C.I.S. and U.S. were offset by increases among members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and a number of other countries outside the OPEC sphere. Figures from the International Energy Agency (IEA) show world demand for petroleum products moved up 300,000 b/d to 66.9 million b/d. This included an addition to stocks of an estimated 1000,000 b/d. IEA predicts world demand will continue to rise in 1993 and OPEC output will advance to meet this higher level. Even though OPEC production is expected to be up for the year, seasonal swings in demand can cause price fluctuations. The paper describes OPEC production, non-OPEC production, oil prices, the world oil supply, Russian's decline, world demand, and the outlook for 1993

  15. World oil market simulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baldwin, N.

    1992-01-01

    This paper presents a recursive simulation model of the world oil market - the World Oil Market Simulation Model (WOMS). The objective was to construct a computationally simple model which provides a transparent view of the workings of the oil market. In the event WOMS has a number of features which distinguish it from other published models: the effect of exchange rate movements is incorporated in the supply and demand functions; both demand and supply functions are dynamic; the non-OPEC supply functions account for the geological as well as the economic aspects of supply; oil prices can be determined either by OPEC setting prices (as normally included in this type of model) or by OPEC setting volumes and market forces determining the price; and consistency checks on consumers' and producers' behaviour are incorporated to confirm the plausibility of model projections. The paper commences with an outline of the model structure followed by an examination of the choice of the appropriate data. The main sections of the paper discuss the estimation of the demand and non-OPEC supply functions. Finally the modelling of OPEC's behaviour is addressed. Comparisons are made throughout with other published work. As the model was estimated using data covering 1960 to 1985, brief comments are also made comparing the events of 1986 with model determined values. (author)

  16. Soviet woes, Middle East crisis cut first half world crude oil production

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beck, R.J.

    1991-01-01

    This paper reports that the Persian Gulf crisis and the faltering Soviet oil industry spawned a 2.8% dive in world oil production during first half 1991 compared with the same period a year ago. Total world flow averaged 59.781 million b/d, down 1.728 million b/d from first half 1990. First half Soviet production fell 1.13 million b/d from a year ago to 10.6 million b/d. Production among members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries in the first half averaged 22.927 million b/d, down 1.099 million b/d. Non-OPEC production averaged 36.854 million b/d, down from the 1990 first half average of 37.483 million b/d. OPEC's share of total world production fell to 38.4% for first half 1991 from 39.1% for first half last year. In 1979 OPEC production was 49.1% of total world production. OPEC's share dropped to 29.9% of the world total in 1985 and had been moving back up since then. OPEC set new production quotas totaling 22.31 million b/d, reflecting the curtailment of production from Kuwait and Iraq. Production in the first half of 1991 was 2.8% above quota

  17. World energy strategies into the 21st century

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Johnson, H.W.

    1986-01-01

    In mid-1990s, tighter oil supply and firmer and higher price will be projected due to the declining production in non-OPEC countries. The OPEC members have the oil production capacity of 30 million barrels a day, but last year, OPEC produced 17 million barrels a day. World oil demand was down about 600,000 barrels a day due primarily to the continued substitution with natural gas, coal and nuclear power. The conclusion of the UK coal strike also contributed to the drop of the demand for residual fuel oil. Economic growth was too sluggish to offset the substitution effect. The crude oil production from non-OPEC sources has increased, but low price will reverse the trend of non-OPEC production. Energy supply will be ample to meet the projected demand through the next decade. The annual growth rate of less than 2 % was forecast for the primary energy demand in non-communist world, assuming the economic growth of 3 % a year worldwide. The trend of the use of natural gas, coal and nuclear power is discussed. At the beginning of the 21st century, world energy will be supplied 42 % by oil, 18 % by natural gas, 24 % by coal and 8 % by nuclear power. (Kako, I.)

  18. Escaping the tolerance trap

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hammoudeh, S.; Madan, V.

    1994-01-01

    In order to examine the implications of the weakening of OPEC's responsiveness in adjusting its production levels, this paper explicitly incorporates rigidity in the quantity adjustment mechanism, thereby extending previous research which assumed smooth quantity adjustments. The rigidity is manifested in a tolerance range for the discrepancy between the declared target price and that of the market. This environment gives rise to a 'tolerance trap' which impedes the convergence process and inevitably brings the market to a standstill before its reaches the targeted price and revenue objectives. OPEC's reaction to the standstill has important implications for the achievement of the target-based equilibrium and for the potential collapse of the market price. This paper examines OPEC's policy options in the tolerance trap and reveals that the optional policy in order to break this impasse and move closer to the equilibrium point is gradually to reduce output and not to flood the market. (Author)

  19. The case for conserving oil resources: the fundamentals of supply and demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reynolds, D.B.

    2000-01-01

    This article summarises the evidence for an oil price shock and argues that oil producers, both OPEC and non-OPEC, need to cut back oil production more, in order to conserve oil for the future and to avert sudden extreme movements in oil prices in the next five-to-ten years. Four physical fundamentals determine long-run changes in oil prices: supply, demand, technology and substitutes. We show that supply, technology and substitutes are limited and demand is growing strongly. As demand pushes against supply, prices will rise rapidly. It would be better to conserve oil now, in order to have a smoother transition to higher-priced oil in the future. In addition, oil is such a valuable resource for the worlds economies in general, that we should conserve it for future generations. The world, in its haste for economic growth, should support OPEC conservation efforts. (author)

  20. World oil prices flat to declining

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Adelman, M.A.

    1993-01-01

    A forecast is presented of the likely trends in world oil prices over the short to medium term. A historical background is presented of the OPEC cartel and its role in influencing oil prices. The incentives and disincentives for OPEC to raise prices, and the tensions within the cartel are explored. Slower demand growth and the expansion of natural gas are expected to put downward pressure on oil prices, which are currently artificially high. The impacts of high taxes on development and exploration are examined, and it is shown that state ownership poses an obstacle to improved performance. Threats of price decline are expected to continue to lead to threats of hasty, or even violent action on the part of OPEC members, as happened in 1990. Privatization and tax codes designed to skim rent are positive trends

  1. Challenges facing the international oil and gas industry in the 21st century

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Subroto, Dr.

    1992-01-01

    In the world league of energy suppliers, crude oil producers will continue to lead the field, lubricating the wheels of commerce and industry well into the next century. Oil has now been discovered in most of the world's regions, and some 80% of all oil produced is traded internationally. No other energy commodity offers quite the same qualities of transformability and transportability. Over the last three decades OPEC has been a major player in that trade. This paper briefly examines the turbulent history of oil since OPEC's formation over 30 years ago, noting the events leading up to the decision taken by the Organization in 1985 to abandon its role as oil price administrator and go all out to defend its market share. As the oil world moved from confrontation to dialogue in the late 1980s, OPEC sought constructive talks on the subject of proposed environmental constraints on oil development. (author)

  2. Mergers and acquisitions of downstream facilities by producing countries

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ligon, D.R.

    1988-01-01

    The author discusses a phenomenon that he calls the ''re-integration'' or ''re-coupling'' of the worldwide oil industry, as foreign, particularly OPEC, producers are becoming directly involved with downstream operations in their most important markets. This phenomenon already has produced some far-reaching consequences that will become even more important and pervasive in the near future. First, he describes the factors and logic that led to these arrangements. Next, he outlines some of their practical considerations and implications. While some of the market factors described are applicable to any non-integrated producer, he spends most of his time discussing OPEC and ''neo-OPEC'' producers such as Mexico. These are the people doing the deals and are therefore probably of greatest interest.

  3. World oil prices: Up or down in 1995? and beyond?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Browning, R.E.

    1994-01-01

    After a brief review of historical oil prices up to 1993-94, the factors influencing future prices are discussed. A survey of oil supply and demand over 1986-1993 shows oil demand has risen in Asia and fallen in the former Soviet Union and central/eastern Europe (FSU/CEE). Non-OPEC oil supply fell from 42.1 million bbl/d (MMBD) in 1986 to 40.6 MMBD in 1993, reflecting declines in Russian and U.S. production. Total OPEC production rose in the same period from 18.3 MMBD to 24.7 MMBD. OPEC production will continue to be dominant in determining prices, and demand in growing Asian economies and the FSU/CEE countries will be the most important and uncertain demand-side factor. If 7.5 MMBD of new OPEC capacity comes on stream by 2000 and OPEC production averages 31 MMBD in 2000, the utilization rate for OPEC oil at that time would be about the same as in 1973-79 and 1994. World oil production costs vary considerably by region, with the USA, North Sea, and Canada having relatively high costs; yet even in those regions, costs have been declining. A global weighted average cost based on 1993 production is $8-9/bbl. Fiscal and financial factors affecting oil prices include the need for oil revenue among oil producers. This need will put pressure on FSU economies to continue exports, although increases in such exports will require new infrastructure. In any case, the world oil market is likely to see a continuing trend to regarding oil as a commodity, which tends to reduce the control that physical participants exert on price-setting. Long-term real prices are not expected to rise but will likely remain volatile, cycling around $13/bbl. Spot prices in 1995 for West Texas Intermediate are forecast to be in the $16-20/bbl range. 4 figs., 4 tabs

  4. An empirical exploration of the world oil price under the target zone model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tang, Linghui; Hammoudeh, Shawkat

    2002-01-01

    This paper investigates the behavior of the world oil price based on the first-generation target zone model. Using anecdotal data during the period of 1988-1999, we found that OPEC has tried to maintain a weak target zone regime for the oil price. Our econometric tests suggest that the movement of the oil price is not only manipulated by actual and substantial interventions by OPEC but also tempered by market participants' expectations of interventions. As a consequence, the non-linear model based on the target zone theory has very good forecasting ability when the oil price approaches the upper or lower limit of the band

  5. An empirical exploration of the world oil price under the target zone model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Linghui Tang; Shawkat Hammoudeh

    2002-01-01

    This paper investigates the behavior of the world oil price based on the first-generation target zone model. Using anecdotal data during the period of 1988-1999, we found that OPEC has tried to maintain a weak target zone regime for the oil price. Our econometric tests suggest that the movement of the oil price is not only manipulated by actual and substantial interventions by OPEC but also tempered by market participants' expectations of interventions. As a consequence, the non-linear model based on the target zone theory has very good forecasting ability when the oil price approaches the upper or lower limit of the band. (author)

  6. New frontiers for tomorrow`s world

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kassler, P [Shell International Petroleum Co. Ltd., London (United Kingdom)

    1994-12-31

    The conference paper deals with new frontiers and barricades in the global economic development and their influence on fuel consumption and energy source development. Topics discussed are incremental energy supply - new frontiers, world car population - new frontiers, OPEC crude production capacity vs call on OPEC, incremental world oil demand by region 1992-2000, oil resource cost curve, progress in seismic 1983-1991, Troll picture, cost reduction in renewables, sustained growth scenario, nuclear electricity capacity - France, OECD road transport fuels - barricades, and energy taxation. 18 figs.

  7. The empirical role of the exchange rate on the crude-oil price formation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yousefi, A.; Wirjanto, T.S.; University of Waterloo, Ont.

    2004-01-01

    This paper adopts a novel empirical approach to the crude-oil price formation for the purpose of understanding the price reactions of OPEC member countries to changes in the exchange rate of the US dollar against other major currencies and prices of other members. The results are broadly consistent with the view of the absence of a unified OPEC determined price in the international crude market literature. In addition, the results also highlight a cross regional dimension of the crude oil market. (author)

  8. Panorama 2017 - Oil situation in 2016 and trends

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maisonnier, Guy

    2016-12-01

    The price of Brent posted an exceptional decline of around 60% over two years. It was approximately $44/bbl in 2016, compared with $52/bbl in 2015 and nearly $100/bbl in 2014. With the possible reduction of excess supply in 2017, a price of $50 to 60/bbl can be envisaged, which would boost investments in exploration. However, the actual price level will depend on the conditions for application of the OPEC/non-OPEC agreement and the response by U.S. production. The highly unstable financial and geopolitical environment may also result in chaotic price movements

  9. Tests of a robust eddy correlation system for sensible heat flux

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blanford, J. H.; Gay, L. W.

    1992-03-01

    Sensible heat flux estimates from a simple, one-propeller eddy correlation system (OPEC) were compared with those from a sonic anemometer eddy correlation system (SEC). In accordance with similarity theory, the performance of the OPEC system improved with increasing height of the sensor above the surface. Flux totals from the two systems at sites with adequate fetch were in excellent agreement after frequency response corrections were applied. The propeller system appears suitable for long periods of unattended measurement. The sensible heat flux measurements can be combined with net radiation and soil heat flux measurements to estimate latent heat as a residual in the surface energy balance.

  10. Oil Companies and Reserves | Compagnies et réserves pétrolières

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Top 20 World Oil CorporationsTop 20 des compagnies pétrolières mondialesSources: OPEC, Annual Statistical Bulletin, 2009; 2009 official reports of oil companies; British Petroleum, BP Statistical Review of Word Energy, 2010.Crude Oil Exports per Area (in Million Tonnes, 2009Exportations de pétrole brut par région (en millions de tonnes, 2009Sources : www.iea.org; www.opec.org; www.gecforum.org; British Petroleum, BP Statistical Review of World Energy, 2010.China’s Crude Oil Imports from Afr...

  11. The arch oil price manipulators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1998-01-01

    First set up in 1960, OPEC has become a highly successful cartel and a key player on the world geopolitical scene. Through quotas and dragooning its members, it has maintained the world price of oil at a level much higher than the marginal cost of new oil from the largest producers by holding off new supplies which might otherwise have flooded the market. The two main factors which have made this persistent success possible are examined. They are OPEC's very low production costs vis-a-vis its competitors and the extent of the organisation's shut-in, low-cost reserves. (UK)

  12. Refining revolution

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fesharaki, F.; Isaak, D.

    1984-01-01

    A review of changes in the oil refining industry since 1973 examines the drop in capacity use and its effect on profits of the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries compared to world refining. OPEC countries used their new oil revenues to expand Gulf refineries, which put additional pressure on OECD refiners. OPEC involvement in global marketing, however, could help to secure supplies. Scrapping some older OECD refineries could improve the percentage of capacity in use if new construction is kept to a minimum. Other issues facing refiners are the changes in oil demand patterns and government responses to the market. 2 tables.

  13. Saudi Arabia's oil policy after 1. oil crisis explained with the help of a cartel model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Linderoth, H.

    1992-01-01

    Saudi Arabian oil policy is analyzed by using a cartel model where Saudi Arabia's oil production is a function of oil price and oil production in other OPEC countries. Elasticities for oil production and oil price are estimated covering oil crises and 3 intercrises periods. During all intercrises periods, production elasticity is not significantly different from 1 which, to a considerable extent, shows that the oil production in Saudi Arabia followed that of the other OPEC countries. During oil crisis periods, production elasticities were either significantly negative or not significantly different from zero. In most cases, the price elasticity was not significantly different from zero. (au)

  14. Crude petroleum

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1990-01-01

    Crude petroleum statistics by country of production, export values and import values from 1983 to 1988 are given. Table A.1 of the Annex includes free market prices and price indices for crude petroleum based on average of Dubai, United Kingdom Brent and Alaska N Slope crude prices (price expressed in dollars/barrel). The data sources are: Crude petroleum United Nations Statistical Office; OPEC Annual Statistical Bulletin, and Petroleum Economist. For trade the sources of data are: National trade statistics; United Nations international trade statistics; International Moneytary Fund (IMF); Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC); UNCTAD secretariat estimates. Tabs

  15. World oil supply and demand'

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1997-01-01

    Apart from a collapse of oil and gas consumption in the CIS, a strong increase in demand in the newly industrialized countries and an upward trend in the OECD countries are observed. Non-Opec supply continued to grow, with a production decline in Usa and Russia but a record production level in the North Sea and a remarkable revival in South America (Colombia, Argentina) and Africa (Congo, Angola). In Opec countries, the trend goes from supply control to development of production capacity. Situations in Saudi Arabia, Iran and Iraq are detailed

  16. New frontiers for tomorrow's world

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kassler, P.

    1994-01-01

    The conference paper deals with new frontiers and barricades in the global economic development and their influence on fuel consumption and energy source development. Topics discussed are incremental energy supply - new frontiers, world car population - new frontiers, OPEC crude production capacity vs call on OPEC, incremental world oil demand by region 1992-2000, oil resource cost curve, progress in seismic 1983-1991, Troll picture, cost reduction in renewables, sustained growth scenario, nuclear electricity capacity - France, OECD road transport fuels - barricades, and energy taxation. 18 figs

  17. Indicators on the world petroleum markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2000-10-01

    This paper presents tendencies of the petroleum industry market. It analyses the petroleum demand and supply, the prices elaboration, the petroleum market and the OPEC objective, the third petroleum crisis of the year 2000 and gives some data concerning the petroleum market. (A.L.B.)

  18. Politics, economics and the price of oil

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zaki Yamani, S.A.

    1992-01-01

    This paper describes petroleum price instability in connection with politics intrusion into the oil business. The author shows the dominant position of OPEC on petroleum market during the 70s and the 80s, the influence of Iranian revolution, Iran / Iraq war and Kuwait invasion by Iraq on petroleum price evolution. 5 figs

  19. USAs tuleks bensiiniaktsiisi hoopis tõsta, mitte langetada / Kenneth Rogoff

    Index Scriptorium Estoniae

    Rogoff, Kenneth

    2008-01-01

    Autor leiab, et bensiiniaktsiisi tuleks tõsta, mitte langetada. Nafta hinda kõrgena hoides teeb OPEC keskkonna säilitamiseks rohkem kui lääne poliitikud, kes püüavad pikendada ökoloogiliselt jätkusuutmatut lääne tarbimiskultust

  20. Near-term oil prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lynch, M.C.

    2001-01-01

    This PowerPoint presentation included 36 slides that described the state of oil prices and how to predict them. Prices are random, stochastic, chaotic, mean-reverting and driven by speculators, oil companies and OPEC. The many factors that enable price forecasting are economic growth, weather, industry behaviour, speculators, OPEC policy choices, Mexico/Russia production policy, non-OPEC supply and the interpretation of the above factors by OPEC, speculators, traders and the petroleum industry. Several graphs were included depicting such things as WTI price forecasts, differentials, oil market change in 2001, inventory levels, and WTI backwardation. The presentation provided some explanations for price uncertainties, price surges and collapses. U.S. GDP growth and the volatility of Iraq's production was also depicted. The author predicted that economic growth will occur and that oil demand will go up. Oil prices will fluctuate as the Middle East will be politically unstable and weather will be a major factor that will influence oil prices. The prices are likely to be more volatile than in the 1986 to 1995 period. 2 tabs., 22 figs

  1. In the long term, the United States will have a relatively little influence on the Iraqi petroleum

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Noel, P.

    2003-01-01

    The author examines the US policy in the petroleum domain, the US intentions concerning the Iraqi petroleum, the Opec coherence facing the come back of the Iraq and the increase power of Russian and the demand increase (77 mb/d today for 115 mb/d in 2030). (A.L.B.)

  2. Advancing the design of a dynamic petro-dollar currency basket

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Elbeck, Matt

    2010-01-01

    This study offers Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) member nations a crude oil pricing currency basket based on currency liquidity, in contrast with prior emphasis on OPEC trading patterns. Motivating the search for an alternative US dollar pricing of crude oil is the significant and inverse relationship (r=-0.82, p<0.01) between the US dollar major currencies index and crude oil price over the period January 1999-March 2009. A dynamically weighted petro-dollar currency basket is proposed based on the five currency claims (US dollar, Euro, British pound, Japanese yen and Swiss franc) and their varying proportions of foreign exchange reserves held by central banks. The major currencies US dollar index is compared against the proposed petro-dollar index to reveal an average US$8.1 billion annual gain in favor of the petro-dollar currency basket, offering OPEC members a revenue stream of diversified and highly liquid currencies to transition away from complete dependence on the US dollar crude oil pricing. The proposed petro-dollar crude oil pricing schema offers OPEC a crude oil price dynamically denominated in currencies reflecting the global use and importance of crude oil. This paper concludes with implementation issues facing a move toward the dynamically weighted petro-dollar crude oil pricing schema. (author)

  3. The petroleum in the postwar period

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martinez Ortiz, Astrid

    2003-01-01

    This paper analyzes some antecedents and are answers formulated to questions as: how is the oil world after Iraq? Which is the future of the OPEC, how are evolved the prices of the petroleum and repercussions of these facts in Colombia

  4. The outlook for US oil dependence

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Greene, D.L.; Jones, D.W.; Leiby, P.N.

    1998-01-01

    Oil dependence is defined as a dynamic problem of short- and long-run market power. The potential monopoly power of an oil cartel depends on its market share and the elasticities of oil supply and demand, while the economic vulnerability of oil-consuming states depends most directly on the quantity of oil imported and the oil cost share of gross domestic product (GDP). Of these factors, only the market share of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) cartel and the rate of growth of world oil demand are clearly different than they were 25 years ago. OPEC still holds the majority of world oil and, in the future, will regain market share. A hypothetical 2-year supply reduction in 2005-2006, similar in size to those of 1973-1974 or 1979-1980, illustrates the potential benefits to OPEC and harm to the US economy of a future oil price shock. OPEC's revenues are estimated to increase by roughly $0.7 trillion, while the US economy loses about $0.5 trillion. Strategic petroleum reserves seem ineffective against a determined, multi-year supply curtailment. Increasing the market's price responsiveness by improving the technologies of oil supply and oil demand can greatly reduce the costs of oil dependence. Each element of this interpretation of the oil dependence problem is well supported by previous studies. This paper's contribution is to unite these elements into a coherent explanation and to point out the enormously important implications for energy policy. (Author)

  5. The importance of Norway in the oil and natural gas markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Noreng, Oeystein

    2006-01-01

    The article presents an analysis of the global energy markets with emphasis on the Northern areas and the importance of Norway. The energy supplies and prices, the OPEC role, the role of Norway and Russia in the natural gas markets and energy policies are discussed. Various risk aspects particularly for Norway are mentioned. (tk)

  6. Enforced Sparse Non-Negative Matrix Factorization

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-01-23

    proposals quotas opec legislation revenue england ico iraq vote passenger yen producer iranian surplus Figure 4. Example NMF with and without sparsity...preprint arXiv:1007.0380, 2010. [22] A. Cichocki and P. Anh-Huy, “Fast local algorithms for large scale nonnegative matrix and tensor factorizations

  7. Present energy status

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Desprairies, P

    1988-04-01

    This paper reviews the past and present situation of the World Oil Market and assumes future trends and possible future evolution. Low oil prices between 1950 and 1973 have contributed to an exceptional growth of oil demand during more than 20 years which was more and more supplied by OPEC. The oil shocks of 1973 and 1979 have dramatically changed this situation. Some of the most important changes have been the emergence of non-OPEC new oil producers, the growth of substitute energies, especially natural gas and nuclear power, on the supply side; and substantial decrease of energy consumption in many industrialized countries which has greatly reduced oil demand to OPEC on the demand side. Today this situation seems somewhat stabilized (after the reversal of world oil prices in 1986) and OPEC is producing around 18 million b/day as against a producing capacity of about 30 million b/day. It is generally considered that in coming years oil prices will remain relatively low (or occasionally even become lower than today) due to excess oil production capacity and relative abundance of other types of energy. However, many experts think that these trends can be reversed when oil supply will more and more concentrate again in the Middle East; but it is hard to say if this will begin in 1995, 2000, 2010.

  8. Algeria embraces globalisation and liberalisation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    De Saint Jacob, Y.

    2008-07-15

    Algeria's culture of state monopoly and single party rule has been set aside as the country appears to have resolutely chosen globalisation and liberalisation of its markets. The 2-page article is followed by an interview with the Algerian Minister of Energy and President of OPEC for 2008, explaining the energy policy of Algeria.

  9. A fatal blow to Sunday driving in 1973

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wagner, Michael

    2011-01-01

    The Yom Kippur war in October 1973 resulted in an oil embargo from OPEC (Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries) and as a consequence for eleven weekends it was strictly forbidden to drive on Sundays in Denmark –similar measures were taken in western Germany and the Netherlands. The ban...

  10. Naftahinna olulist langust lähiajal loota ei maksa / Erik Aru

    Index Scriptorium Estoniae

    Aru, Erik

    2008-01-01

    Analüütikute hinnangul kujuneb tänavu nafta keskmiseks hinnaks 83,87 krooni barrelilt. Energiaanalüütik Julian Lee on seisukohal, et keskpikas perspektiivis peaks naftapuhastustehaste mahu kasv sundima naftahinna langema, Deutsche Banki tooraineanalüüsi juhi Michael Lewise arvates ei saa praegu suuremat hinnalangust tulla. Lisa: OPEC viivitab toodangukärpega. Diagramm

  11. Energy Costs and Energy Conservation Programs in Colleges and Universities: 1972-73, 1974-75. Higher Education Panel Reports, Number 31.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Atelsek, Frank J.; Gomberg, Irene L.

    A survey was initiated at the request of the U.S. Office of Education and the Energy Task Force to: (1) measure the increase in energy expenditures since the OPEC oil embargo of 1973-74; (2) assess changes in energy consumption over a two-year period; and (3) examine some of the specific conservation practices of higher education institutions.…

  12. World Hunger Crisis Kit. Hope for the Hungry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woito, Robert, Ed.

    This booklet introduces the problem of world hunger and provides information, facts, and perspectives about the crisis. Section one presents the reader with the basic facts of the hunger crisis through a self-survey, a statistical study of the developed Oil Producing Export Countries (OPEC), and a one-page indication of what one would have to give…

  13. Discussion and Conclusion: A Global Perspective on the World Economy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hague, Douglas

    1983-01-01

    Important changes are taking place in the world economy which are not adequately dealt with by either Keynesian or monetarist theories. Too much emphasis placed on what is happening in the American and western European economies can blind us to important developments in such nonwestern economies as the OPEC nations. (IS)

  14. International Demand for American Higher Education: An Extension.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mixon, J. Wilson, Jr.; Wan, Weidong

    1990-01-01

    A study of the relationship of population and income in Asian countries and Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) members to their demand for American higher education found that both population and income significantly affect demand, but not proportionally. Findings suggest countries meet most change in citizens' demand with…

  15. New energy Era: Short Term and Long Term.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beckwith, Robert

    This paper examines the causes and effects of the 1973 oil embargo imposed by OPEC. The author notes that since the embargo, little positive action has been taken to reduce American dependence upon a very limited and very expensive energy source. In order to achieve any degree of independence, it will be necessary to repidly expand coal and…

  16. Jumps into democracy: The transition in the Polity Index

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Paldam, Martin; Gundlach, Erich

    stepwise stability. The 158 countries are divided in two groups: A small OPEC group, where the transition is skew, and a Main group, where the data show the well-defined long-run path of the Democratic Transition. The distance to the transition path is termed the tension of the regime. The short...

  17. Evidence that the terms of petroleum contracts influence the rate of development of oil fields

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mahmud, M.B.; Russell, A.

    2002-01-01

    This paper presents evidence that the main determinant of the rate of development of Libya's crude oil upstream activities, from 1961 to 1999, was the terms of the petroleum contractual agreements, which existed between the state and the international oil industry during that period, and that US sanctions against the Socialist People's Libyan Arab Jamahiriya failed to affect this rate of development. In keeping with other Members of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), Libya has, over three decades, been a key player in helping to regulate global production levels of oil and gas. However, the economic and political strengths and weaknesses of individual Members of OPEC vary widely and it is inevitable that the stresses arising from adherence to OPEC policies will vary proportionately to these strengths and weaknesses. It is instructive, therefore, to analyse how successfully Libya has exploited its own petroleum resources. The results are thought-provoking and send signals to the superpowers of the futility of economic sanctions against countries whose political policies they find distasteful. Further, the analysis highlights the need for OPEC Members to be fully informed of the significance of the terms of the petroleum agreements they employ in their countries. (author)

  18. Digging Deep for Meaning: A Critical Hermeneutic Analysis of CEO Letters to Shareholders in the Oil Industry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prasad, Anshuman; Mir, Raza

    2002-01-01

    Uses the methodology of critical hermeneutics to analyze Chief Executive Officers' letters to shareholders in the United States petroleum industry during the 1970s and 1980s. Suggests these letters were deployed to produce a certain attitude toward OPEC (Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries) among their readers that deflected attention of…

  19. World oil flow slips in 1991 amid Mideast, U.S.S.R. woes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beck, R.J.

    1992-01-01

    World crude oil production slipped 0.9% in 1991 to average 59,964 million b/d. This paper reports that production declines related to war damage in Kuwait, United Nations sanctions on exports from Iraq, and oil sector woes in the crumbling U.S.S.R. were almost offset by higher production from other members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. OPEC crude production rose 0.6% in 1991 to average 23.425 million b/d, and non-OPEC output fell 1.9% to average 36.539 million b/d in 1991. Excluding the U.S.S.R., non-OPEC production moved up 1.5% to average 26.239 million b/d. World demand inched up about 200,000 b/d, estimates International Energy Agency, and IEA data show about 300,000 b/d was added to stocks in 1991. World crude prices started 1991 at their highest level, then fell off to average $17.82/bbl, down 16.5% from 1990 levels. Meantime, a slight increase in demand is predicted for 1992, and price stability again hinges on OPEC's ability to limit production

  20. Eesti võib ka teisel korral eurota jääda / Harry Tuul

    Index Scriptorium Estoniae

    Tuul, Harry

    2006-01-01

    Eesti Panga teatel mõjutab Lähis-Ida konflikti tõttu tõusta võiv naftahind Eesti võimet euroga liitumiseks vajalikku inflatsioonikriteeriumi täita. Vt. samas: OPEC: hinnatõus peatub 2007. aastal; Eesti Pank ohjab laenuriske. Lisa: Eestil täitmata vaid üks nõue

  1. History of United States Energy. A Basic Teaching Unit on Energy. Revised.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McDermott, Hugh, Ed.; Scharmann, Larry, Ed.

    Intended as a supplement to the units "Oil: Fuel of the Past" and "Coal: Fuel of the Past, Hope of the Future," this 3-4 day unit contains three activities which briefly explain the chronological development of energy resources and the formation and development of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). The…

  2. De dubbele paradox van de Iraanse energiesector

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schippers, J.L.; Geuns, van L.

    2010-01-01

    In Iran bestaat wat betreft de energievoorziening een paradoxale situatie. Het land is, na Saoedi-Arabië, de tweede olieproducent van de OPEC-landen en de vierde grootste olie-exporteur ter wereld. Iran heeft verder, na Rusland, de grootse aardgasreserve. Onder meer door te weinig

  3. Personal View

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, D. C.

    1975-01-01

    The first recorded case of iatrogenic Cushing's syndrome of a whole country is described. For no good reason the patient, an elderly insular country of limited endocrine resources, is receiving, among other things, enormous doses of opec ACTH in crude Arab oil (“givitbACTHen depot”). Since the patient is not under my care she will probably continue to deteriorate.

  4. Middle East and North African Oil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Al-Quazzaz, Ayad

    1981-01-01

    Traces the history of oil and natural gas in the Middle East and relates the importance of the Middle East's current stores of oil to economic development. Information is presented on the relationship of major oil companies and local governments, OPEC, rate of production, and the impact of oil on the societies of the Middle East and North Africa.…

  5. Myths & Realities of the Coming Decade.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lazer, William

    Since the late 1970s Americans have adopted a more pessimistic outlook of the future than at any time since World War II. Reasons for this include inflation, unemployment, a low rate of productivity, the flow of U.S. funds to OPEC nations, an unfavorable balance of trade, and the unstable international environment. In view of these factors, some…

  6. Cyclopentenyl cytosine has biological and anti-tumour activity, but does not enhance the efficacy of gemcitabine and radiation in two animal tumour models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Bree, Chris; Barten-van Rijbroek, Angeliqué D.; Leen, René; Rodermond, Hans M.; van Kuilenburg, André B. P.; Kal, Henk B.

    2009-01-01

    Cyclopentenyl cytosine (CPEC), targetting the de novo biosynthesis of cytidine triphosphate (CTP), increases the cytotoxicity of gemcitabine (2',2'-difluoro-2'-deoxycytidine, dFdC) alone and in combination with irradiation in several human tumour cells in vitro. We investigated whether OPEC enhances

  7. From Toledo to Trieste--Renewing Our Commitment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salam, Abdus

    1980-01-01

    Briefly reviews past endeavors at achieving international communication among scientists. Describes present accomplishments of the International Centre for Theoretical Physics. Makes appeals for scientific and technological development to the development countries, to the international community, and to representations of the OPEC countries. (CS)

  8. Can a cartel fuel the engine of economic development?

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Noguera, Jose; Pecchenino, R. A.

    -, č. 280 (2005), s. 1-30 ISSN 1211-3298 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z70850503 Keywords : OPEC * macroeconomic stability * resource curse Subject RIV: AH - Economics http://www.cerge-ei.cz/pdf/wp/Wp280.pdf

  9. Proceedings of the CERI 2002 World Oil Conference : Reading the Future. CD ed.

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2002-01-01

    The integration and expansion of world oil markets was the main topic of this conference which featured 18 presentations dealing with developments in the international energy sector. The conference provided an opportunity for participants to discuss issues regarding oil supply and demand, oil prices, OPEC's spare capacity, OPEC's view regarding increasing competition from Canada's oil sands, and what role non-conventional oil plays in today's marketplace. The conference was divided into 6 sessions entitled: (1) oil prices, business as usual, (2) world oil demand, the incredible shrinking market, (3) global oil supplies, (4) going offshore, (5) the politics of oil, and (6) the growing North American supply. The outlook of world energy markets was reviewed with particular emphasis on prospects for oil supply and reserves. Also, the current status of the petroleum industry in both OPEC and non-OPEC oil exporting countries was discussed with reference to exploration, production, reserves, and hydrocarbon potential as well as the environmental, and socio-economic challenges that the industry must face. refs., tabs., figs

  10. Oil price movements and production agreements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mazraati, M.

    2004-01-01

    The purpose of this technical exercise is to apply econometric modelling to study the relationship between movements in the oil price and compliance by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) with its self-assigned production agreements, whose purpose is to bring order and stability to the international oil market. After introducing various methods of measurement of compliance, the study applies these methods to monthly data for 1995-2002 for OPEC. It then identifies the method ''over-production as a percentage of ceiling'' as the best-fitting and most accurate criterion for measuring OPEC compliance. The paper then elaborates on intervention analysis, explains the various types of intervention in detail and introduces a number of econometric models to monitor oil price movements resulting from OPEC's intervention in the oil market, along with the extent of its compliance with its agreements. On applying the models to a set of historical monthly data, the study finds that higher oil prices have been achieved when the effective level of compliance lies in the range of 94-99 per cent, and that lower oil prices have been experienced when there is less compliance and more volatility. The paper notes that the achievement of order and stability is the responsibility of all parties in an international market that is inherently volatile. (author)

  11. The third oil shock: The effects of lower oil prices

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pearce, J

    1983-01-01

    This book assesses how oil prices have affected other elements of the economy and assesses the costs and benefits that could result from lower oil prices for different groups of countries. The book also analyses the extent of OPEC's influence, the consumers countries' needs for energy security and the altered role of the oil industry.

  12. Outlook for international oil markets

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zanoyan, V; French, M

    1984-01-01

    Despite increased hostilities in the Persian Gulf, there has been a slack in both petroleum product and crude markets and concern over the possibility of a wave of refinery bankruptcies. The short-term outlook recognizes that OPEC problems are not permanent. Demand is not expected to return to pre-1979 levels, and demand growth will not have an equal distribution among OPEC members. Mid-term projections are for real oil prices to be about 12% below 1982 levels, with the decline continuing through 1986. The only significant demand expansion will occur in the industrial sectors of the developing countries due to conservation efforts and fuel substitution that will continue to reduce petroleum's share of total energy consumed by developed countries. Consumption in the transport sector will probably remain at current levels. Oil production in Western countries should peak and then decline during the 1980s, with non-OPEC developing countries filling some of the demand gap and OPEC prices going up instead of production. 6 tables.

  13. Algeria embraces globalisation and liberalisation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    De Saint Jacob, Y.

    2008-01-01

    Algeria's culture of state monopoly and single party rule has been set aside as the country appears to have resolutely chosen globalisation and liberalisation of its markets. The 2-page article is followed by an interview with the Algerian Minister of Energy and President of OPEC for 2008, explaining the energy policy of Algeria

  14. The oil policies of the Gulf Arab Nations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ripple, R.D.; Hagen, R.E.

    1995-03-01

    At its heart, Arab oil policy is inseparable from Arab economic and social policy. This holds whether we are talking about the Arab nations as a group or each separately. The seven Arab nations covered in this report-Bahrain, Iraq, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates--participate in several organizations focusing on regional cooperation regarding economic development, social programs, and Islamic unity, as well as organizations concerned with oil policies. This report focuses on the oil-related activities of the countries that may reveal the de facto oil policies of the seven Persian Gulf nations. Nevertheless it should be kept in mind that the decision makers participating in the oil policy organizations are also involved with the collaborative efforts of these other organizations. Oil policies of five of the seven Arab nations are expressed within the forums of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries (OAPEC). Only Oman, among the seven, is not a member of either OAPEC or OPEC; Bahrain is a member of OAPEC but not of OPEC. OPEC and OAPEC provide forums for compromise and cooperation among their members. Nevertheless, each member state maintains its own sovereignty and follows its own policies. Each country deviates from the group prescription from time to time, depending upon individual circumstances.

  15. Iraq cracks a few heads in the Gulf

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bernstein, J.

    1990-08-20

    Last month Saddam Hussein charged that oil overproduction by his neighbors was costing Iraq dearly. When an OPEC meeting collapsed last week, he sent 100,000 troops to seize Kuwait, which he had accused of stealing oil. The US is scrambling to organize a Western boycott, but some analysts question just how effective such a more would be.

  16. A methodology for assessing the market benefits of alternative motor fuels: The Alternative Fuels Trade Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Leiby, P.N.

    1993-09-01

    This report describes a modeling methodology for examining the prospective economic benefits of displacing motor gasoline use by alternative fuels. The approach is based on the Alternative Fuels Trade Model (AFTM). AFTM development was undertaken by the US Department of Energy (DOE) as part of a longer term study of alternative fuels issues. The AFTM is intended to assist with evaluating how alternative fuels may be promoted effectively, and what the consequences of substantial alternative fuels use might be. Such an evaluation of policies and consequences of an alternative fuels program is being undertaken by DOE as required by Section 502(b) of the Energy Policy Act of 1992. Interest in alternative fuels is based on the prospective economic, environmental and energy security benefits from the substitution of these fuels for conventional transportation fuels. The transportation sector is heavily dependent on oil. Increased oil use implies increased petroleum imports, with much of the increase coming from OPEC countries. Conversely, displacement of gasoline has the potential to reduce US petroleum imports, thereby reducing reliance on OPEC oil and possibly weakening OPEC`s ability to extract monopoly profits. The magnitude of US petroleum import reduction, the attendant fuel price changes, and the resulting US benefits, depend upon the nature of oil-gas substitution and the supply and demand behavior of other world regions. The methodology applies an integrated model of fuel market interactions to characterize these effects.

  17. Petroleum: Price trends

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Babusiaux, Denis; Pierru, Axel

    2010-01-01

    The Organization of Petroleum-Exporting Countries (OPEC), some political leaders and financiers have mainly attributed the price spike of oil in 2008 - followed by a just as spectacular drop in prices - to the speculative moves made by financial investors on the futures market instead of to market fundamentals

  18. Global Warming: A Review of the Debates on the Causes ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    USER

    Herath (2011), the debates are human versus natural, small amount of warming versus ... computer model simulations and supported by Kyoto Protocol since it is without scientific ..... priorities, the Kyoto Protocol was a battleground between businesses and ... as OPEC (Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries).

  19. The role of market fundamentals and speculation in recent price changes for crude oil

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kaufmann, Robert K.

    2011-01-01

    I hypothesize that the price spike and collapse of 2007-2008 are driven by both changes in both market fundamentals and speculative pressures. Contrary to arguments for a demand shock, I hypothesize that prices rise sharply in 2007-2008 because ongoing growth in Chinese oil demand runs into a sudden and unexpected halt to a decade long increase in non-OPEC production. This caused a loss of OPEC spare capacity because increased demand for OPEC production runs ahead of increases in OPEC capacity. These changes are reinforced by speculative expectations. Although difficult to measure directly, I argue for the role of speculation based on the following: (1) a significant increase in private US crude oil inventories since 2004; (2) repeated and extended break-downs (starting in 2004) in the cointegrating relationship between spot and far month future prices that are inconsistent with the law of one price and arbitrage opportunities; and (3) statistical and predictive failures by an econometric model of oil prices that is based on market fundamentals. These changes are related to the behavior and impact of noise traders on asset prices to sketch mechanisms by which speculative expectations can affect crude oil prices. - Research Highlights: → The 2007-2009 spike and collapse in oil prices is caused by a combination of market fundamentals and speculative expectations. → The rise is caused by an unexpected hiatus in non-OPEC oil production, not a sudden increase in demand. → The role of speculation is suggested by an increase in oil inventories, which reverses a twenty year period of declines, a decoupling between spot and futures prices, which violates the law of one price, and a breakdown of empirical models of oil prices based solely on market fundamentals. → Speculative expectations affect oil prices via noise traders, who create a risk that deters rational arbitrageurs from betting against them.

  20. Oil outlook to 2005

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shihab-Eldin, Adnan; Hamel, Mohamed; Brennand, Garry

    2004-01-01

    This paper presents the OPEC Secretariat's latest outlook to 2025 for oil supply and demand. The results have been developed using the OPEC World Energy Model, OWEM. The next two decades are expected to see increases in energy demand met predominantly by fossil fuels, with oil set to continue to maintain its major role. There is also a clear expectation that the oil resource base is sufficiently abundant to satisfy this demand growth. Global oil demand rises in the reference case by 12 million barrels per day to 89 mb/d from 2002 to 2010, an average annual growth rate of 1.5 mb/d, or 1.8 per cent per annum, over the period. In the following decade, demand grows by a further 17 mb/d to 106 mb/d by 2020, and then by another 9 mb/d to 115 mb/d by 2025. Almost three-quarters of the increase in demand over the period 2002-25 comes from developing countries. In the short-to-medium term, overall non-OPEC supply is expected to continue to increase - rising to a plateau of 55-57 mb/d in the post-2010 period. The key sources for the increase in non-OPEC supply will be Latin America, Africa, Russia and the Caspian. In the longer term, OPEC will increasingly be called upon to supply the incremental barrel. Uncertainties over future economic growth, government policies and the rate of development and diffusion of newer technologies raise questions over the future scale of investment that will be required. These uncertainties, coupled with long lead times, inevitably complicate the task of maintaining market stability. Medium-term prospects suggest that there is a need to ensure that spare capacity is not too high and that it is consistent with sustained market stability. There are genuine risks of downward pressure on oil prices, and this could sow the seeds of instability. (Author)

  1. Oil outlook to 2025

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Adnan Shihab-Eldin; Mohamed Hamel; Brennand, G.

    2004-01-01

    This paper presents the OPEC Secretariat's latest outlook to 2025 for oil supply and demand. The results have been developed using the OPEC World Energy Model, OWEM. The next two decades are expected to see increases in energy demand met predominantly by fossil fuels, with oil set to continue to maintain its major role. There is also a clear expectation that the oil resource base is sufficiently abundant to satisfy this demand growth. Global oil demand rises in the reference case by 12 million barrels per day to 89 mb/d from 2002 to 2010, an average annual growth rate of 1.5 mb/d, or 1.8 per cent per annum, over the period. In the following decade, demand grows by a further 17 mb/d to 106 mb/d by 2020, and then by another 9 mb/d to 115 mb/d by 2025. Almost three-quarters of the increase in demand over the period 2002-25 comes from developing countries. In the short-to-medium term, overall non-OPEC supply is expected to continue to increase - rising to a plateau of 55-57 mb/d in the post-2010 period. The key sources for the increase in non-OPEC supply will be Latin America, Africa, Russia and the Caspian. In the longer term, OPEC will increasingly be called upon to supply the incremental barrel. Uncertainties over future economic growth, government policies and the rate of development and diffusion of newer technologies raise questions over the future scale of investment that will be required. These uncertainties, coupled with long lead times, inevitably complicate the task of maintaining market stability. Medium-term prospects suggest that there is a need to ensure that spare capacity is not too high and that it is consistent with sustained market stability. There are genuine risks of downward pressure on oil prices, and this could sow the seeds of instability. [Author

  2. Considering extraction constraints in long-term oil price modelling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rehrl, Tobias; Friedrich, Rainer; Voss, Alfred

    2005-12-15

    Apart from divergence about the remaining global oil resources, the peak oil discussion can be reduced to a dispute about the time rate at which these resources can be supplied. On the one hand it is problematic to project oil supply trends without taking both - prices as well as supply costs - explicitly into account. On the other hand are supply cost estimates however itself heavily dependent on the underlying extraction rates and are actually only valid within a certain business-as-usual extraction rate scenario (which itself is the task to determine). In fact, even after having applied enhanced recovery technologies, the rate at which an oil field can be exploited is quite restricted. Above a certain level an additional extraction rate increase can only be costly achieved at risks of losses in the overall recoverable amounts of the oil reservoir and causes much higher marginal cost. This inflexibility in extraction can be overcome in principle by the access to new oil fields. This indicates why the discovery trend may roughly form the long-term oil production curve, at least for price-taking suppliers. The long term oil discovery trend itself can be described as a logistic process with the two opposed effects of learning and depletion. This leads to the well-known Hubbert curve. Several attempts have been made to incorporate economic variables econometrically into the Hubbert model. With this work we follow a somewhat inverse approach and integrate Hubbert curves in our Long-term Oil Price and EXtraction model LOPEX. In LOPEX we assume that non-OPEC oil production - as long as the oil can be profitably discovered and extracted - is restricted to follow self-regulative discovery trends described by Hubbert curves. Non-OPEC production in LOPEX therefore consists of those Hubbert cycles that are profitable, depending on supply cost and price. Endogenous and exogenous technical progress is extra integrated in different ways. LOPEX determines extraction and price

  3. Running down to the last drop

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Groppe, H.

    2001-01-01

    Higher oil and gas prices and tighter supplies are an indicator that the supplies of world oil and North American natural gas are going to become far more limited and that North Americans will pay more for energy until consumption shrinks to match the declining world supplies. Booming economic growth has led to the ever rapid exploitation of discovered resources. But now the world's producers aren't finding enough new supplies to keep up with demand. Canada is the only country, outside of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), with huge unexploited reserves. The world consumes non-OPEC oil at a rate of about a billion barrels every three weeks, but new discoveries do not match this. Members of OPEC manage their production so that they get the highest possible price at any given time, but prices in the west have not risen sharply enough to curtail consumption. Since 1970, the three largest non-OPEC oil discoveries were under water and were all very costly: offshore U.S. Gulf of Mexico, offshore Brazil and offshore Mexico. Peak production from each of these discoveries is estimated at one million barrels a day. OPEC has the reserves to pump more than 32 million barrels per day by the end of the decade, but that will not be enough to offset the decline in production from non-OPEC countries. Potentially, Iraq can sustain a long-term production capacity of about six million barrels a day, which is about double its current output. In 2000, Saudi Arabia, along with other OPEC members adjusted production five times to achieve target prices. Natural gas production in the U.S. alone is greater in total energy output than the oil production of Saudi Arabia and the natural gas industry is facing a shortage of deliverable reserve, particularly since natural gas is the fuel of choice for electric-power projects. Since the 1980s, increasing amounts of natural gas have been imported to the U.S. from Canada. While Canada has reached its production capacity, it

  4. Considering extraction constraints in long-term oil price modelling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rehrl, Tobias; Friedrich, Rainer; Voss, Alfred

    2005-01-01

    Apart from divergence about the remaining global oil resources, the peak oil discussion can be reduced to a dispute about the time rate at which these resources can be supplied. On the one hand it is problematic to project oil supply trends without taking both - prices as well as supply costs - explicitly into account. On the other hand are supply cost estimates however itself heavily dependent on the underlying extraction rates and are actually only valid within a certain business-as-usual extraction rate scenario (which itself is the task to determine). In fact, even after having applied enhanced recovery technologies, the rate at which an oil field can be exploited is quite restricted. Above a certain level an additional extraction rate increase can only be costly achieved at risks of losses in the overall recoverable amounts of the oil reservoir and causes much higher marginal cost. This inflexibility in extraction can be overcome in principle by the access to new oil fields. This indicates why the discovery trend may roughly form the long-term oil production curve, at least for price-taking suppliers. The long term oil discovery trend itself can be described as a logistic process with the two opposed effects of learning and depletion. This leads to the well-known Hubbert curve. Several attempts have been made to incorporate economic variables econometrically into the Hubbert model. With this work we follow a somewhat inverse approach and integrate Hubbert curves in our Long-term Oil Price and EXtraction model LOPEX. In LOPEX we assume that non-OPEC oil production - as long as the oil can be profitably discovered and extracted - is restricted to follow self-regulative discovery trends described by Hubbert curves. Non-OPEC production in LOPEX therefore consists of those Hubbert cycles that are profitable, depending on supply cost and price. Endogenous and exogenous technical progress is extra integrated in different ways. LOPEX determines extraction and price

  5. Oil outlook to 2020

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shihab-Eldin, A.; Hamel, M.; Brennand, G.

    2003-01-01

    OPEC's World Energy Model, OWEM, is used to develop the outlook for oil demand and supply to 2020. The reference case assumes world economic growth averaging 3.3 per cent per annum, while OPEC's Reference Basket of seven crudes remains mainly in the target range of US $22-28 a barrel, in nominal terms. With no additional assumed policy measures, for example, to reduce CO 2 emissions, the reference case sees world oil demand rising from 76 million barrels a day in 2000 to 89 mb/d in 2010 and 107 mb/d in 2020. More than three-quarters of this increase comes from developing countries. The most important sector for a demand increase is transportation, accounting for 60 per cent of the rise globally. On the supply side, the oil resource base is not considered a constraint to satisfying this increase in demand. Non-OPEC production is expected to continue to grow during the current decade, and to stabilise at a level of 53-55 mb/d beyond 2010. OPEC production is projected to reach 36 mb/d by 2010 and 52 mb/d in 2020. It is important, however, to recognise the uncertainties pervading such an assessment. For example, it is not clear how future economic growth, energy policies and technology will develop over this time horizon, and this inevitably clouds any assessment of future oil demand and supply. In an attempt to quantify one aspect of such uncertainty, other feasible economic growth rates have been assumed, the results of which suggest that OPEC output by 2010 could be 4-5 mb/d higher or lower than in the reference case, while the range is clearly even greater in the years to 2020. Moreover, policy reactions to such developments could compound the uncertainty. On the other hand, such alternative economic growth could place pressure upon oil prices to move outside OPEC's price band of $22-28/b. These uncertainties illustrate the scope of the challenges confronting the oil industry, especially given the long lead-time nature of oil industry investment, in making

  6. Flux agreement above a Scots pine plantation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gay, L. W.; Vogt, R.; Bernhofer, Ch.; Blanford, J. H.

    1996-03-01

    The surface energy exchange of 12m high Scots pine plantation at Hartheim, Germany, was measured with a variety of methods during a 11-day period of fine weather in mid-May 1992. Net radiation and rate of thermal storage were measured with conventional net radiometers, soil heat flux discs and temperature-based storage models. The turbulent fluxes discussed in this report were obtained with an interchanging Bowen ratio energy budget system (BREB, at 14 m), two one-propeller eddy correlation systems (OPEC systems 1 and 2 at 17m), a 1-dimensional sonic eddy correlation system (SEC system 3) at 15 m, all on one “low” tower, and a 3-dimensional sonic eddy correlation system (SEC system 22) at 22 m on the “high” tower that was about 46 m distant. All systems measured sensible and latent heat (H and LE) directly, except for OPEC systems 1 and 2 which estimated LE as a residual term in the surface energy balance. Closure of turbulent fluxes from the two SEC systems was around 80% for daytime and 30% for night, with closure of 1-dimensional SEC system 3 exceeding that of 3-dimensional SEC system 22. The night measurements of turbulent fluxes contained considerable uncertainty, especially with the BREB system where measured gradients often yielded erroneous fluxes due to problems inherent in the method (i.e., computational instability as Bowen's ratio approaches -1). Also, both eddy correlation system designs (OPEC and SEC) appeared to underestimate |H| during stable conditions at night. In addition, both sonic systems (1- and 3-dimensional) underestimated |LE| during stable conditions. The underestimate of |H| at night generated residual estimates of OPEC LE containing a “phantom dew” error that erroneously decreased daily LE totals by about 10 percent. These special night problems are circumvented here by comparing results for daytime periods only, rather than for full days. To summarize, turbulent fluxes on the low tower from OPEC system 2 and the adjacent

  7. Proceedings of the CERI 2001 World Oil Conference. CD ed.

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2001-01-01

    The integration and expansion of world oil markets was the main topic of this conference which featured 23 presentations dealing with developments in the international energy sector. The conference was divided into 8 sessions entitled: (1) oil prices, (2) oil and politics, (3) global oil supply, (4) North American supply and markets, (5) global oil demand, (6) oil.com, (7) the business of the environment, and (8) oil and money. The outlook of world energy markets was reviewed with particular emphasis on prospects for oil supply and reserves. The current status of the petroleum industry in both OPEC and non-OPEC oil exporting countries was discussed with reference to exploration, production, reserves, and hydrocarbon potential. The environmental, and socio-economic challenges that both the upstream and downstream industry will face challenges in the next century were also described. refs., tabs., figs

  8. Long-term factors in oil supply

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Banks, F E

    1984-01-01

    The Stanford Energy Supply Forum prediction that world oil demand in 1990 will press on supply and send prices into an irreversible climb assumes that the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries will control unemployment, that Third World population growth will require more energy, and that several oil exporters will be reducing their output. The author points out disappointing exploration results, OPEC's continued strength, downward projections of reserves by geological surveys, and other economic factors to show that oil supplies are likely to last less than 40 years, with remaining reserves concentrated in fewer producing countries. This will make it harder for non-OPEC countries to influence prices, in contrast to more positive forecasts from the oil industry.

  9. How does economic theory explain the Hubbert peak oil model?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reynes, F.; Okullo, S.; Hofkes, M.

    2010-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to provide an economic foundation for bell shaped oil extraction trajectories, consistent with Hubbert's peak oil model. There are several reasons why it is important to get insight into the economic foundations of peak oil. As production decisions are expected to depend on economic factors, a better comprehension of the economic foundations of oil extraction behaviour is fundamental to predict production and price over the coming years. The investigation made in this paper helps us to get a better understanding of the different mechanisms that may be at work in the case of OPEC and non-OPEC producers. We show that profitability is the main driver behind production plans. Changes in profitability due to divergent trajectories between costs and oil price may give rise to a Hubbert production curve. For this result we do not need to introduce a demand or an exploration effect as is generally assumed in the literature.

  10. The oil barrel price

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blondy, J.; Papon, P.

    2009-01-01

    This paper proposes an overview and a prospective glance on the oil barrel price. It indicates the relevant indicators: Brent quotation, euro/dollar parity, economic activity indicators, world oil consumption distribution, crude oil production, refining capacity. It briefly presents the involved stake holders: crude oil producers, oil refiners, refined product dealers, and the OPEC. It discusses the major retrospective trends: evolution in relationship with geopolitical events and energy policies, strong correlation between oil demand and economic growth, prevalence of OPEC, growing importance of national oil companies. An emerging trend is noticed: growing role of emerging countries on the crude market. Some prospective issues are discussed: duration and intensity of economic recession, separation between economic growth and energy consumption, pace and ambition level of policies of struggle against climate change, exploitable resources, and geopolitical hazards. Four evolution hypotheses are discussed

  11. Energy and remote sensing applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Summers, R. A.; Smith, W. L.; Short, N. M.

    1978-01-01

    The nature of the U.S. energy problem is examined. Based upon the best available estimates, it appears that demand for OPEC oil will exceed OPEC productive capacity in the early to mid-eighties. The upward pressure on world oil prices resulting from this supply/demand gap could have serious international consequences, both financial and in terms of foreign policy implementation. National Energy Plan objectives in response to this situation are discussed. Major strategies for achieving these objectives include a conversion of industry and utilities from oil and gas to coal and other abundant fuels. Remote sensing from aircraft and spacecraft could make significant contributions to the solution of energy problems in a number of ways, related to exploration of energy-related resources, the efficiency and safety of exploitation procedures, power plant siting, environmental monitoring and assessment, and the transportation infrastructure.

  12. Outdoor environmental assessment of attention promoting settings for preschool children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mårtensson, F; Boldemann, C; Söderström, M; Blennow, M; Englund, J-E; Grahn, P

    2009-12-01

    The restorative potential of green outdoor environments for children in preschool settings was investigated by measuring the attention of children playing in settings with different environmental features. Eleven preschools with outdoor environments typical for the Stockholm area were assessed using the outdoor play environment categories (OPEC) and the fraction of visible sky from play structures (sky view factor), and 198 children, aged 4.5-6.5 years, were rated by the staff for inattentive, hyperactive and impulsive behaviors with the ECADDES tool. Children playing in large and integrated outdoor areas containing large areas of trees, shrubbery and a hilly terrain showed less often behaviors of inattention (pOPEC can be useful when to locate and develop health-promoting land adjacent to preschools.

  13. 'Jail break' made by Iraqi oil tankers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lorenz, A.

    2000-01-01

    The implications of Iran's policy turn-about of allowing ships smuggling Iraqi crude oil to sail through its coastal waters, out of reach of UN and US ships patrolling the Persian Gulf, are discussed. It is suspected that the change in Iranian policy may be due to the fact that an infusion of Iraqi oil on the international markets would suit Iran's purposes by reducing the need for OPEC to raise production quotas. Iran is known to be opposed to an increase of production by OPEC members. At the same time, developments in US-Iranian relations and in the international oil market also have to be considered as factors influencing the Iranian position on this issue

  14. Battle for market share: World oil market projections, 1995-2010

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Considine, J.I.; Reinsch, A.E.

    1995-09-01

    A world-wide market assessment and scenario analyses were described. They were said to suggest a more bearish outlook for crude oil prices relative to last years projections. The price of WTI was projected to weaken over the 1996-1998 period due to rising non-OPEC production, gradual reintegration of Iraqi exports, a lack of unified accommodation by the rest of OPEC for incremental Iraqi volumes, and demand growth insufficient to absorb the additional production at current prices. Crude prices could be expected to lie in the $15.50-$17.50 (US) per barrel range from 1996 to 1998, and in the $14.50-$20.50 per barrel range during the first decade of the 21. century. Long-term price risk was expected to be weighted to the down side. The reasoning behind these predictions was explained in detail. 24 figs., 83 tabs., 70 refs

  15. Policy issues related to substitution of the US dollar in oil pricing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Essayyad, Musa; Algahtani, Ibrahim

    2005-01-01

    This policy paper attempts to evaluate the viability of switching from the US dollar to the euro in international oil pricing. If materialised, the switch would not impact only OPEC nations but would also have ramifications for other oil exporting as well as importing nations. It would also have considerable effect on US economy and international financial system. This paper recommends that in deciding which currency to use in oil pricing, OPEC member countries should not allow their positive or negative political rapport with the US Government to distort their rational choice. Switching to euro or any other currency will not eliminate loss of revenue, as the newly adopted currency will not be immune either from the exchange rate gyrations. In fact, there is no guarantee that the euro, yen, sterling pound, or any other major currency will be immune from fluctuations. As a way out, this paper recommends three alternatives. (Author)

  16. Oil trade: politics and prospects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hartshorn, J.E.

    1993-01-01

    After a century of exponential growth, the international oil industry suddenly slowed down in the 1970s, faltered during the 1980s, and by the early nineties was only just about back to its 1979 level. In a descriptive analysis of current influences upon the world oil trade, this book explores the reasons behind that slowdown - which are not all attributable to OPEC or its nationalisation of international major oil companies. It assesses the growth and decay of Opec monopoly power in the crude oil market, as the latest demonstration of a paradoxical but persistent imbalance in this international business: its tendency to maximise the production of high-cost rather than low-cost oil. (author)

  17. Oil supply and oil politics: Deja Vu all over again

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cleveland, Cutler J.; Kaufmann, Robert K.

    2003-01-01

    President Bush has identified US dependence on imported oil as an urgent energy, economic, and national security concern. The President's energy plan promotes the development of domestic resources, based on the assumption that economic incentives and the opening of frontier areas for exploration will increase domestic production. If realized, this will reduce dependence on imported oil and reduce OPEC's ability to affect aggregate oil supply and price. The evidence suggests, however, that this policy will not increase significantly US production of crude oil, will not reduce significantly OPEC's influence, and it will distort the US macroeconomy. Even if allowed, production from the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge will have a negligible impact on the world oil markets. Further subsidies to the oil industry will divert resources from other more productive investments. Conservation and energy efficiency merit greater emphasis in US energy policy given their ability to reduce the use of cost-effective and environmentally beneficial ways

  18. Oil supply and oil politics: Deja Vu all over again

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cleveland, C.J.; Kaufmann, R.K.

    2003-01-01

    President Bush has identified US dependence on imported oil as an urgent energy, economic, and national security concern. The President's energy plan promotes the development of domestic resources, based on the assumption that economic incentives and the opening of frontier areas for exploration will increase domestic production. If realized, this will reduce dependence on imported oil and reduce OPEC's ability to affect aggregate oil supply and price. The evidence suggests, however, that this policy will not increase significantly US production of crude oil, will not reduce significantly OPEC's influence, and it will distort the US macroeconomy. Even if allowed, production from the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge will have a negligible impact on the world oil markets. Further subsidies to the oil industry will divert resources from other more productive investments. Conservation and energy efficiency merit greater emphasis in US energy policy given their ability to reduce the use of cost-effective and environmentally beneficial ways. (author)

  19. Annual energy outlook 1993 with projections to 2010

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1992-01-01

    The Energy Information Administration's (EIA's) Annual Energy Outlook 1993 (AEO93) presents forecasts for energy prices, supply, demand, and imports over the period 1990 to 2010. These projections take into account existing legislation, including the Energy Policy Act of 1992. Even though the world oil market remains relatively tight, the long-term outlook for oil prices has been revised downward since the Annual Energy Outlook 1992 as expectations for both the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and non-OPEC production potential have been revised upward. Domestic natural gas prices are also expected to be lower than projected last year, in part because of a more optimistic outlook for drilling technology. Finally, lower growth in the demand for electricity is expected because of the Energy Policy Act of 1992, which mandates efficiency standards for new energy-using equipment. These are the most striking differences between last year's EIA evaluation of long-term energy market trends and this year's evaluation

  20. Venezuelas Pursuit of Caribbean Basin Interests: Implications for United States National Security.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1985-01-01

    sold to buyers in Western Europe and the United States. The most important Venezuelan exports in the 19th century were cocoa and coffee. In the 20th...confusion in the U.S. Congress over the difference between the Organiza- tion of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries (OAPEC), of which Venezuela was not a...member, and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), to which Venezuela belonged, the action remained in force even though Caracas had

  1. Canada: trouble with two-legged bears

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stauffer, Thomas

    1999-01-01

    The current low price of oil has serious implications for producers in Canada and the corporate survival of many of the smaller producers is now in danger. Oil production and exploration are themselves threatened. The advantages to OPEC in terms of reduced competition are discussed. The lesser impact on production of oil from tar sands and mitigation of the impact on many companies with interests in gas is also mentioned. (UK)

  2. Petroleum

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    2000-01-01

    Here are briefly summarized 1)the OPEC decisions and their consequences concerning the production of petroleum in the world 2)some news about the petroleum industry in Chad and in Iraq 3)some news about the new pipelines constructed or to be constructed in the world 4)some news about the LPG industry (start of a LPG extraction unit in Argentina, legislation in France for LPG vehicles) 4)and some news about the petroleum distribution in France. (O.M.)

  3. LA CHUTE DES PRIX DE PETROLE : QUELS IMPACTS POUR L’ECONOMIE TUNISIENNE ?

    OpenAIRE

    Dhaoui, Elwardi

    2015-01-01

    Oil prices have fallen by about half since September 2014. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) decided not to reduce production. The euro zone, China, Japan and Russia recorded slower rates of economic growth than expected. All combine to keep a sharp decline of oil prices which can be persistent. This new situation has profoundly changed the economic environment of the country. The impact will vary depending on the countries if they are exporters or importers of oil. For...

  4. Assessing the role of coal in the world energy future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hibbard Junior, W.R.

    1981-01-01

    Ten recent extensive studies of long range energy futures were evaluated and a consensus of findings developed. Progress toward the consensus was determined. In the next 20 years the United States will need all of the coal, nuclear, oil shale and tar sands that public consensus and the legislatures will permit. Concerns include the cost and availability of OPEC oil, energy efficiency, acid rain, and carbon dioxide build-up. (Author) [pt

  5. Facts and possibilities for the energy problem

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Koch, E [Kernforschungszentrum Karlsruhe (Germany, F.R.). Abt. Bauwesen

    1977-01-01

    After the oil crisis, all countries have become more aware of the energy problem. The economic dictate of OPEC countries must be counteracted at least by a partial self-supply with energy. The article deals with a few selected, realistic developments on the energy sector. Among others, the following facts are discussed: pretroleum reserves in the FRG, coal liquefaction, efficiency of thermal power plants, alternative projects for nuclear energy, reprocessing of nuclear waste, and problems of nuclear waste storage.

  6. Prices of petroleum decreased, but only awhile

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Debnar, M.

    2003-01-01

    Development of world prices of petroleum of first six months of 2003 is analysed. The influence of oil production in Iraq on oil world price is discussed. Considerations of representatives of various countries about the possibility of using Euro as currency for oil are presented. OPEC representatives stated that they are not thinking about accounting in another currency as US dollars for the time being. (Author)

  7. The International Market Petroleum after the War in the Persian Gulf

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bauer, M.; Quintanilla M, J.; Garcia P, B.; Rojas N, J.A.

    1991-01-01

    Petroleum market in post-war time of Persian Gulf could yet undergo the possibility of a drastic increasing in virtue of two main factors: first, an important elevation in oil production by OPEC - in spite of a noticeable decreasing of Iranian and Kuwaiti production and independent oil countries production; and second, a fall in demand, both for the slow evolution of global economy, as for the seasonal movement linked with the second quarter of the year (April to June). Author

  8. Structural changes, market concentration and vertical integration: would they lead to more stable markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tahmassebi, H.

    1991-01-01

    This communication is concerned with three major developments that are likely to have significant impact on the future structure of world oil markets: oil company mergers and acquisitions, shift of exploration and production activity from the United States to overseas, and joint venture agreements between producing countries and oil companies aimed at further downstream integration by OPEC. The last two developments are likely to contribute substantially to price and market stability in the future

  9. State of the art in oil market in the world

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Banks, F. E.

    2007-01-01

    Things move fast in the world of oil and unfortunately many events do not always receive an appropriate interpretation. The present update reviews the on-going oil peak debate, providing evidence against unjustified optimistic propositions, discussing the predictable shortage of energy materials and its influence on prices. Moreover, the return of OPEC to the oil market drivers seat and the irruption of state oil companies from exporting countries are also commented. (Author)

  10. Structural changes, market concentration and vertical integration: would they lead to more stable markets

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tahmassebi, H.

    This communication is concerned with three major developments that are likely to have significant impact on the future structure of world oil markets: oil company mergers and acquisitions, shift of exploration and production activity from the United States to overseas, and joint venture agreements between producing countries and oil companies aimed at further downstream integration by OPEC. The last two developments are likely to contribute substantially to price and market stability in the future.

  11. Economic Conflict and National Security Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    1977-02-22

    increases in oil prices and what the next budget was likely to be. Then, since he is from Atlanta where the Coca - Cola Company is located, he would go see...the local Coca - Cola representative and ask him similar questions. Governor Carter found that invariably the Coca - Cola representative knew a lot more...military attack. The OPEC em- bargo of 1973-74 is a conspicuous example, but is by no means the only one. The sponsorship of transnational terrorists

  12. Integrating Army Aviation into the Combined Arms Team: Operational Art in Desert Shield and Desert Storm

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-05-25

    King of Saudi Arabia. The conversation took place prior to an Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) meeting of Arab Gulf members...Blumberg and Christopher C. French, eds., The Persian Gulf War: Views from the Social and Behavioral Sciences (Lanham, MD: University Press of America...1994), 17. 72 Blumberg and French, The Persian Gulf War, 29. 20 building up forces in northeast Saudi Arabia during Operation Desert Shield, in

  13. Overcapacity forces change on the coal industry

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Soras, C.; Stodden, J.

    1987-09-01

    This article discusses the recent economic factors which have affected the coal mining industry in the USA, these include OPEC world oil prices, hostilities in the Gulf, strikes by miners and consumption rates. The recent years of over capacity have brought about key changes in the structure of the coal business and these are covered. The article forecasts an improvement in the market for coal, a free enterprise in the power market and a smaller but stronger coal industry in years to come.

  14. Venezuela ups the ante

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Collitt, Raymond.

    1997-01-01

    Strong performances by small and medium sized oil companies in Venezuela have contributed to the success of its oil industry. This paper considers the historical progress of the industry since its nationalisation twenty-one years ago, charting its attractiveness to investors and plans for expansion. Its very success has brought the Venezuelan oil industry into conflict with OPEC's quota system, which it argues, needs to be charged. (UK)

  15. The May October energy budget of a Scots pine plantation at Hartheim, Germany

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gay, L. W.; Vogt, R.; Kessler, A.

    1996-03-01

    This paper describes measurements of the Hartheim forest energy budget for the 157-day period of May 11 Oct. 14, 1992. Data were collected as 30-min means. Energy available to the forest was measured with net radiometers and soil heat flux discs; sensible heat exchange between the canopy and atmosphere was measured with two “One-Propeller Eddy Correlation” (OPEC) systems, and latent energy (evapotranspiration or ET) was determined as a residual in the surface energy balance equation. Net rediation, change in thermal storage, and sensible heat flux were verified by independent measurements during the Hartheim Experiment (HartX, May 11 12), and again during the “HartX2” experiment over 20 days late in the summer (Sep. 10 29). Specifically, sensible heat estimates from the two adjacent OPEC sensor sets were in close agreement throughout the summer, and in excellent agreement with measurements of sonic eddy correlation systems in May and September. The eddy correlation/energy balance technique was observed to overestimate occurrence of dew, leading to an underestimate of daily ET of about 5%. After taking dew into account, estimates of OPEC ET totaled 358 mm over the 5.1-month period, which is in quite good agreement with an ET estimate of 328 mm from a hydrologic water balance. An observed decrease in forest ET in July and August was clearly associated with low rainfall and increased soil water deficit. The OPEC system required only modest technical supervision, and generated a data yield of 99.5% over the period DOY 144 288. The documented verification and precision of this energy budget appears to be unmatched by any other long-term forest study reported to date.

  16. THE SITUATION OF IRAQI OIL INDUSTRY AND ITS PROSPECTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Al Dulaimi Haidar Ali

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available Iraq is a major oil producer and exporter(the second one after Saudi Arabia, member of OPEC and was able to reform its oil sector and to gradually pass to a market economy system, by restructuring and privatizing its oil production, processing and distribution. Some medium term and long term priorities set for economic development are presented in the article and also investment and business opportunities existing for domestic and foreign investors.

  17. Vincristine, cisplatin, teniposide, and cyclophosphamide combination in the treatment of recurrent or metastatic adrenocortical cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khan, Tanweera S; Sundin, Anders; Juhlin, Claes; Wilander, Erik; Oberg, Kjell; Eriksson, Barbro

    2004-01-01

    The efficacy and tolerability of a combination of vincristine, cisplatin, teniposide, and cyclophosphamide (OPEC) in 11 patients (median age, 45 yr) with recurrent and/or metastatic adrenocortical cancer (ACC) (seven functional and four nonfunctional) were evaluated. All patients received this regimen after the failure of streptozocin and o,p'-DDD (SO) combination therapy. The regimen comprised cyclophosphamide, 600 mg/m2, and vincristine, 1.5 mg/m2, maximum dose 2.0 mg (d 1); cisplatin, 100 mg/m2 (d 2) and teniposide, 150 mg/m2 (d 4). Cycles were repeated every 4 wk. One to eight cycles (median, six cycles) of OPEC were administered to each patient. The median duration of treatment was 6 mo. The overall 2-yr survival rate was 82% and the median survival since diagnosis was 44 mo while it was 21 mo since start of OPEC therapy. Responses were obtained in nine patients: partial response in two patients, and stable disease in seven patients. The median duration of response was 6.75 mo. A total of 60 cycles of chemotherapy were given to all patients; grade 1-2 toxicity occurred in 57 cycles, while grade 3 toxicity was observed only in two cycles, according to NCI's Common Toxicity Criteria. We conclude that the OPEC regimen may be considered in recurrent or metastatic ACC as a second-line medical treatment. However, the combination is accompanied by considerable side effects and dose modifications are necessary in order to be able to recommend the treatment. This regimen needs further evaluation compared with SO therapy preferably in a randomized multicenter trial.

  18. Measuring efficiency of international crude oil markets: A multifractality approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niere, H. M.

    2015-01-01

    The three major international crude oil markets are treated as complex systems and their multifractal properties are explored. The study covers daily prices of Brent crude, OPEC reference basket and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude from January 2, 2003 to January 2, 2014. A multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MFDFA) is employed to extract the generalized Hurst exponents in each of the time series. The generalized Hurst exponent is used to measure the degree of multifractality which in turn is used to quantify the efficiency of the three international crude oil markets. To identify whether the source of multifractality is long-range correlations or broad fat-tail distributions, shuffled data and surrogated data corresponding to each of the time series are generated. Shuffled data are obtained by randomizing the order of the price returns data. This will destroy any long-range correlation of the time series. Surrogated data is produced using the Fourier-Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (F-DFA). This is done by randomizing the phases of the price returns data in Fourier space. This will normalize the distribution of the time series. The study found that for the three crude oil markets, there is a strong dependence of the generalized Hurst exponents with respect to the order of fluctuations. This shows that the daily price time series of the markets under study have signs of multifractality. Using the degree of multifractality as a measure of efficiency, the results show that WTI is the most efficient while OPEC is the least efficient market. This implies that OPEC has the highest likelihood to be manipulated among the three markets. This reflects the fact that Brent and WTI is a very competitive market hence, it has a higher level of complexity compared against OPEC, which has a large monopoly power. Comparing with shuffled data and surrogated data, the findings suggest that for all the three crude oil markets, the multifractality is mainly due to long

  19. Phagocytosis of gram-negative bacteria by a unique CD14-dependent mechanism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schiff, D E; Kline, L; Soldau, K; Lee, J D; Pugin, J; Tobias, P S; Ulevitch, R J

    1997-12-01

    THP-1-derived cell lines were stably transfected with constructs encoding glycophosphatidylinositol (GPI)-anchored or transmembrane forms of human CD14. CD14 expression was associated with enhanced phagocytosis of serum (heat-inactivated)-opsonized Escherichia coli (opEc). Both the GPI-anchored and transmembrane forms of CD14 supported phagocytosis of opEc equally well. Lipopolysaccharide-binding protein (LBP) played a role in CD14-dependent phagocytosis as evidenced by inhibition of CD14-dependent phagocytosis of opEc with anti-LBP monoclonal antibody (mAb) and by enhanced phagocytosis of E. coli opsonized with purified LBP. CD14-dependent phagocytosis was inhibited by a phosphatidylinositol (PI) 3-kinase inhibitor (wortmannin) and a protein tyrosine kinase inhibitor (tyrphostin 23) but not a protein kinase C inhibitor (bisindolyl-maleimide) or a divalent cation chelator (ethylenediaminetetraacetate). Anti-LBP mAb 18G4 and anti-CD14 mAb 18E12 were used to differentiate between the pathways involved in CD14-dependent phagocytosis and CD14-dependent cell activation. F(ab')2 fragments of 18G4, a mAb to LBP that does not block cell activation, inhibited ingestion of opEc by THP1-wtCD14 cells. 18E12 (an anti-CD14 mAb that does not block LPS binding to CD14 but does inhibit CD14-dependent cell activation) did not inhibit phagocytosis of LBP-opEc by THP1-wtCD14 cells. Furthermore, CD14-dependent phagocytosis was not inhibited by anti-CD18 (CR3 and CR4 beta-chain) or anti-Fcgamma receptor mAb.

  20. Upstream squall swells to a full storm

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shepherd, Richard

    1999-01-01

    Following Shell's reduction in its base oil price by 40% against its 1997 planning value, many other oil companies have followed suit, leading to a fall in budgetary spending for 1999 and reduced the chance of any significant recovery for some time. Growth for non-OPEC oil suppliers and from offshore oil has slowed, both in reserves and production potential. It is expected that cost cutting exercises, mergers and restructuring will follow to ensure growth in profitability and revenues. (UK)

  1. National Oil Companies: the view from Venezuela

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rodriguez, M.

    1994-01-01

    National oil companies were key elements in the initial OPEC strategy and they brought a de-integration of oil industry. These companies have tried to move from crude marketing to product marketing through new investments at home and abroad in order to get higher value added and more secure markets for crude. Low prices bring new challenges. Venezuela's answers are strategic associations, operating contract for marginal fields and profit sharing agreements. (Author)

  2. Medium-Term Oil Market Report (MTOMR) 2009

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2009-06-29

    This fourth edition of the IEA Medium-Term Oil Market Report (MTOMR) confronts an economic landscape unrecognisable from that seen at the time of the release of the summer 2008 edition. Crude prices are now 55% lower as financial and economic meltdown have slashed demand, with worldwide contraction in oil use at levels not seen since the early 1980s. But how long will the downturn last, and what is the likely profile of global and regional demand recovery when economic rebound eventually takes root? Has almost a decade of rising prices and costs changed the demand-side blueprint and forced the world onto a lower oil intensity path for the period through 2014? Equally importantly, the report identifies the impact that weaker demand, low prices and a credit squeeze are having on supply-side investment - in upstream OPEC/non-OPEC supply, biofuels capacity and refining infrastructure alike. The 2009 edition of the MTOMR also delves into the issues of diversifying FSU crude exports, evolving crude and product qualities, the importance of petrochemical markets and perceptions on oil price formation in the down-cycle. Two demand scenarios are presented based on differing economic growth assumptions, with a lower non-OPEC supply scenario also accompanying the lower GDP case. Summary oil balances highlight how OPEC spare capacity could develop during 2008-2014. This year, the MTOMR also consolidates analysis of future crude availability and trade flows, refining capacity and oil products supply implications under one cover. The MTOMR remains required reading for policy makers, market analysts, industry participants and anyone with an interest in oil market trends. It contains detailed statistical appendices and a wealth of insightful graphics. Alongside its monthly sister publication, the Oil Market Report, the MTOMR is a cornerstone of the IEA commitment to enhancing oil market transparency.

  3. A Bear At My Door: How To Stop Future Russian Aggression

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-02-16

    Sunni controlled Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries’ (OPEC) saturation of the oil market has had a major impact on the Russian economy ...Shirtless horse rides with media coverage, military incursion into Crimea days after the closing ceremony of the Olympics , or having his Russian...Russian incursion and once this occurs what will be the impact ? Is the occupied nation militarily capable of a quick ten day victory as in Slovenia or

  4. Oil Trade and Climate Policy

    OpenAIRE

    Malik Curuk; Suphi Sen

    2015-01-01

    It has been argued that a depletable resource owner might optimally increase near-term supply in response to environmental policies promoting the development of alternative resources, which might render climate policy ineffective or even counterproductive. This paper empirically confirms this prediction using data on crude oil exports from OPEC to OECD countries between 2001-2010 in a gravity framework. It documents that oil exporters decrease prices and increase quantity of oil exports in re...

  5. Aircraft and Bases Powered by Compact Nuclear Reactors: Solutions to Projecting Power in Highly Contested Environments and Fossil Fuel Dependence

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-05-01

    decline.20 Since 2008, improvements in fossil fuel extraction techniques, such as fracking in the United States, have delayed the inevitable and probably...higher US production due to fracking and inaction by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).25 Assuming this relaxation does not... fracking techniques, eventually even the most ingenious extraction techniques will not be enough for supply to keep up with demand, and humans will

  6. Naftariigid tõmbavad hinnapidurit / Erik Aru

    Index Scriptorium Estoniae

    Aru, Erik

    2008-01-01

    Investeerimispanga Merrill Lynch tooraineanalüüsi juht Merril Francisco Blanchi prognoosib, et nafta hind langeb madalaimale tasemele 2009. a. esimeses pooles ning alates juunist hakkab hind tõusma. IEA prognoosib, et naftatarbimise kasv aeglustub aastatel 2008-2013 vaid keskmiselt 1,2% võrra. OPEC, kes on viimase kahe kuu jooksul juba vähendanud naftatootmist, võib vastu võtta järjekordse otsuse naftatootmist kärpida. Vt. samas: Naftaspioonide maailm

  7. Petroleum and international relations: Saudi Arabia, victim of the new world energy deal?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maraval, M.

    2002-01-01

    The US-Saudi Arabia partnership is, on the aspect of international relations, the main victim of September 11, 2001 terror events. If it is excessive today to claim that the President Bush government wishes to weaken the Saudi state, the 2002 trends of the US foreign policy have deeply modify the world energy deal to the detriment of OPEC and its main producing country

  8. Appearance and substance: World petroleum market review

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ronchi, M.

    1992-01-01

    This review of supply and demand trends in the world petroleum market includes comments on the influence of the Brent quotations, political unrest in the Middle East and OPEC's reaction to the carbon tax proposed during the Rio Earth's Summit on global environmental protection. Overall, the analysis suggests increases in surplus, following a 15 month period of stagnant demand, with increases in Asiatic countries balanced by decreases in the Eastern Bloc nations currently periencing difficulties with their transition economies

  9. Energy from the desert. Energie aus der Wueste

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1985-01-01

    Facts and data on crude oil in the Middle East are dealt with: first, the known crude oil resources of the world and the Middle East, then refinery capacities, natural gas reserves, natural gas production, consumption of mineral oil in the Middle East are listed. Oil investments and returns from oil of the OPEC-countries and the crude oil price development are described. Short historical survey of the development of crude oil at the end. (HAG).

  10. European energy market in 1980. Volume I

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ray, G; Robinson, C

    1975-01-01

    Three important general influences now affecting energy markets are: (1) exploitation of bargaining power by exporters of raw materials (especially oil); (2) changing attitudes in the developed world towards economic growth; and (3) the unprecedented combination of rapid inflation and serious recession. Fears of energy shortages helped precipitate the world crisis, but there is no energy famine imminent. The rise in energy prices resulted from use of OPEC's quasi-monopoly power rather than from real energy shortages. It is projected that European fuel markets in the next few years will be influenced by: poorer economic growth prospects, the increase in energy prices, oil-saving measures caused by consumers' adjustments over some years to the past huge oil price increases, and attempts by European governments to reduce dependence on OPEC oil. Possible substitutes for OPEC oil are their own various sources of crude oil, European natural gas, and electricity from nuclear fission. EEC's latest energy strategy calls for adequate supplies of cheap energy with minimum damage to the environment. Energy forecasts up to 1980 are given for the nine EEC countries and for Norway and Sweden. Data on energy demand, fuel consumption, and production are summarized. It is felt that, by 1980, Netherlands, United Kingdom, and Norway should be producing more energy than they consume. (MCW)

  11. Global upstream investment faces a crisis of confidence

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shepherd, Richard

    2001-01-01

    Offshore business appears to be in a catch-22 situation between on the one hand the interests of global economic welfare and on the other the stock market demands. The oil and gas industries need to grow the return on capital and to compete effectively with other (better performing) industries. But, the world demands more oil and very soon, and these are the issues and consequences discussed. The US government is confident that non-Opec oil supply can increase by 12.8 Mbd between now and 2020 and this is significantly more than projected in the last forecast. The article is presented under the headings of (i) value creation paradigm; (ii) spelling it out for 2001 and (iii) big projects, long lead times. Diagrams show (a) world oil demand 1971-2020; (b) fractional change in Brent prices 1986-2001 and (c) wells drilled and annual production in Prudhoe bay 1974-2010. Figures for the International Energy Agency forecast for both Opec and non-Opec countries are mentioned

  12. Oil: Economics and politics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ayoub, A.

    1994-01-01

    A review is presented of the evolution of the international petroleum sector since 1973 with a special emphasis on the interdependence between the economic and political factors that influence it. Two issues are focused on: the effects of the nationalization of oil companies on the sharing of oil rents and on changes in the structure of the oil market; and the determination of oil prices. Definitions are presented of oil rents, and the reasons for OPEC nationalization of oil companies are explored. The effects of nationalization on market structures, expansion of free markets, and vertical integration are discussed. The existence of an oil price floor and the reasons for such a floor are examined. It is shown that nationalization induced an internalization of rents by the producing countries, leading to the emergence of a differential rent supported by the politics of the industrialized countries. Nationalization led to the breakup of systems of vertical and horizontal integration, with replacement by a new dual structure with OPEC controlling the upstream activities of the oil sector and oil companies controlling the downstream ones. Prices move between a floor price set by the costs of substitute deposits in the U.S., while the determination of ceiling levels by OPEC rests on successive fragile compromises. Overall oil is still a strategic product, despite the existence of spot markets, forward trading options, etc. 29 refs

  13. Canadian petroleum industry review

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Feick, R. M.

    1997-01-01

    A wide ranging discussion about the factors that have influenced oil and natural gas prices, the differences of the Canadian market from international markets, the differences between eastern and western Canadian markets, and shareholders' perspectives on recent commodity price developments was presented. Developments in the OPEC countries were reviewed, noting that current OPEC production of 25 mmbbls is about 60 per cent higher than it was in 1985. It is expected that OPEC countries will continue to expand capacity to meet expected demand growth and the continuing need created by the UN embargo on Iraqi oil sales. Demand for natural gas is also likely to continue to rise especially in view of the deregulation of the electricity industry where natural gas may well become the favored fuel for incremental thermal generation capacity. Prices of both crude oil and natural gas are expected to hold owing to unusually low storage levels of both fuels. The inadequacy of infrastructure, particularly pipeline capacity as a key factor in the Canadian market was noted, along with the dynamic that will emerge in the next several years that may have potential consequences for Canadian production - namely the reversal of the Sarnia to Montreal pipeline. With regard to shareholders' expectations the main issues are (1) whether international markets reach back to the wellhead, hence the producer's positioning with respect to transportation capacity and contract portfolios, and (2) whether the proceeds from increased prices are invested in projects that are yielding more than the cost of capital. 28 figs

  14. An omitted variable in OECD oil supply forecasting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lynch, M.C.

    1990-01-01

    An earlier paper argued that, based on analysis of existing fields, non-OPEC production seems destined to begin declining soon. However, the author's rate of change for fields in production is about -10%/yr., and if it were adjusted based on this paper's findings, an actual increase in non-OPEC production would be observed. More work is needed to estimate coefficients for production from existing fields, incorporating 1) age of field (which would help indicate technology in place from inception) 2) viscosity of the deposit, 3) porosity of rock, 4) size of production, 5) measured remaining reserves, and 6) price paid at the wellhead. This would obviously be a formidable task. There does appear to be a persistent bias in forecasting competitive supply at the macro level, and the results here seem to suggest that at the micro level, it is due to the omission of additional investment in existing fields. This may help to explain why forecasts of non-OPEC supply have been consistently too pessimistic for at least the past decade, and implies that current forecasts of stronger markets may continue this error

  15. Demand outlook : back to the 1990s or a new paradigm?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Diwan, R.

    2002-01-01

    Economic growth in Asia will be much lower in the next five years compared to what it was in the first two thirds of the last decade. There are many structural reasons for this turn of events, but slower economic growth will play an important role on oil demand. Structural economic problems will slow demand in Asia, structurally reducing global demand growth in the next 3 to 5 years. The four trends that will impact oil supply levels include: (1) impact of new technologies, (2) impact of price cycle in mature areas, (3) solutions to geopolitical problems, and (4) increase in OPEC capacity. In the next 5 to 7 years oil demand in Asia will be lower than during the 1990 and 1997 period, when Pacific Basin demand growth averaged 5.5 per cent, or nearly 0.9 million barrels per day on an annual average. A new set of dynamics in the crude oil market will be created as a result of these changes. Prices and flows will be destabilized. The lower demand for oil in Asia will have major consequences for global demand, prices and OPEC strategy. The opening of the upstream sector in most OPEC countries will result in faster growth in production capacity. 13 figs

  16. Ifosfamide in previously untreated disseminated neuroblastoma. Results of Study 3A of the European Neuroblastoma Study Group.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kellie, S J; De Kraker, J; Lilleyman, J S; Bowman, A; Pritchard, J

    1988-05-01

    A prospective study of the effectiveness of ifosfamide as a single agent in the management of previously untreated patients with Evans stage IV neuroblastoma was undertaken. Eighteen children aged more than 1 year were treated with ifosfamide (IFX) 3 g/m2 daily for 2 days immediately after diagnosis and 3 weeks later. Treatment was continued with combination chemotherapy using vincristine, cyclophosphamide, cisplatinum and etoposide (OPEC) or a variant. Mesna (2-mercaptoethane sulphonate) was given to all patients during IFX treatment to prevent urotoxicity. Eight of the 18 patients (44%) responded to IFX. Nine had greater than 66% reduction in baseline tumor volume. Of 15 evaluable patients with raised pre-treatment urinary catecholamine excretion, six (40%) achieved greater than 50% reduction in pretreatment levels. Two of 10 patients evaluable for bone marrow response had complete clearance. Toxicity was mild in all patients. Upon completing 'first line' therapy, only four patients (22%) achieved a good partial remission (GPR) or complete response (CR). Median survival was 11 months. There was a lower rate of attaining GPR and shortened median survival in patients receiving phase II IFX before OPEC or variant, compared to patients with similar pre-treatment characteristics treated with OPEC from diagnosis in an earlier study.

  17. Selling energy conservation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hinrichsen, D

    1995-01-01

    This article concerns the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) crisis and its impact on energy efficiency measures in the US. In 1985, when the OPEC collapsed, the US government had avoided the need to construct 350 gigawatts of new electric capacity. The most successful efficiency improvements, especially in household appliances and equipment, lighting and tightened energy efficiency standards in new buildings, resulted from the OPEC event. The real innovation of that time was the change in profit rules for utilities. This revolution and the way some US utilities view energy have not caught on elsewhere. Despite the initiative toward improving energy efficiency in homes, offices and industries, the change has been slow. Partly to blame are the big development banks, which pointed out that short-term conservation and efficiency measures could save at least 15% of the total energy demand without the need for major investment. The benefits of energy conservation was shown during the oil shock when per capita energy consumption fell by 5% in the member states of the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development, while the per capita gross domestic product grew by a third. There has been a decrease in energy expenditure worldwide, and the scope for further energy savings is enormous, but governments need to recognize and seize the opportunity.

  18. Comparative CO{sub 2} flux measurements by eddy covariance technique using open- and closed-path gas analysers over the equatorial Pacific Ocean

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kondo, Fumiyoshi (Graduate School of Natural Science and Technology, Okayama Univ., Okayama (Japan); Atmosphere and Ocean Research Inst., Univ. of Tokyo, Tokyo (Japan)), Email: fkondo@aori.u-tokyo.ac.jp; Tsukamoto, Osamu (Graduate School of Natural Science and Technology, Okayama Univ., Okayama (Japan))

    2012-04-15

    Direct comparison of airsea CO{sub 2} fluxes by open-path eddy covariance (OPEC) and closed-path eddy covariance (CPEC) techniques was carried out over the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Previous studies over oceans have shown that the CO{sub 2} flux by OPEC was larger than the bulk CO{sub 2} flux using the gas transfer velocity estimated by the mass balance technique, while the CO{sub 2} flux by CPEC agreed with the bulk CO{sub 2} flux. We investigated a traditional conflict between the CO{sub 2} flux by the eddy covariance technique and the bulk CO{sub 2} flux, and whether the CO{sub 2} fluctuation attenuated using the closed-path analyser can be measured with sufficient time responses to resolve small CO{sub 2} flux over oceans. Our results showed that the closed-path analyser using a short sampling tube and a high volume air pump can be used to measure the small CO{sub 2} fluctuation over the ocean. Further, the underestimated CO{sub 2} flux by CPEC due to the attenuated fluctuation can be corrected by the bandpass covariance method; its contribution was almost identical to that of H{sub 2}O flux. The CO{sub 2} flux by CPEC agreed with the total CO{sub 2} flux by OPEC with density correction; however, both of them are one order of magnitude larger than the bulk CO{sub 2} flux

  19. Ecotoxicity by the biodegradation of alkylphenol polyethoxylates depends on the effect of trace elements.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hotta, Yudai; Hosoda, Akifumi; Sano, Fumihiko; Wakayama, Manabu; Niwa, Katsuki; Yoshikawa, Hiromichi; Tamura, Hiroto

    2010-01-27

    The bacteria Sphingomonas sp. strain BSN22, isolated from bean fields, degraded octylphenol polyethoxylates (OPEO(n)) to octylphenol (OP) under aerobic conditions. This biodegradation mechanism proceeded by the following two-step degradation process: (1) degradation of OPEO(n) to octylphenol triethoxylate (OPEO(3)), (2) degradation from OPEO(3) to OP via octylphenoxy acetic acid (OPEC(1)). The chemical structure of OPEC(1) was confirmed by analysis using (18)O-labeled water. Quantitative studies revealed that magnesium (Mg(2+)) and calcium (Ca(2+)) ions were essential for the biodegradation of OPEO(n). Furthermore, the rate of biodegradation was especially accelerated by ferric ions (Fe(3+)), and the accumulated amounts of endocrine active chemicals, such as OP, OPEO(1), and OPEC(1), significantly increased to the concentration of 22.8, 221.7, and 961.1 microM in the presence of 37.0 microM Fe(3+), respectively. This suggests that environmental elements significantly influence the resultant ecotoxicity as well as the rate of their biodegradation in the environment. This study on the mechanism of OPEO(n) biodegradation may play an important role in understanding and managing environmental safety, including drinking water safety.

  20. Good to the last drop : the first petroleum crisis sent researchers on a trail in search of new energy solutions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nadeau, J.B.

    2008-01-01

    The energy crisis of the 1970s provided an incentive to look for alternative energy sources. At the time, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) declared that the era of cheap oil was over. In addition to quadrupling oil prices, OPEC reduced production and placed total embargoes on some countries. With high oil demand and limited supply, lifestyles and habits that were founded on the oil market began to change. The energy crisis was also a catalyst to develop innovative conservation measures. Progressive trendsetters back in 1975 turned to solar and wind energy for their power needs. The author argued that had it not been for the energy crisis, developments such as the Athabasca oil sands, Hydro-Quebec's high-head electric power plants or nuclear power may never have occurred. This article then presented a brief history of the petroleum industry. Drilling technology in 1859 permitted drilling to a level of only 23 metres. In 1928 only 7 companies in the United States controlled the world oil market, notably, Exxon, Texaco, British Petroleum, Shell, Gulf, Standard Oil and Mobil Oil. OPEC was created in 1960, and by 1970 it controlled 40 per cent of the world oil market. According to the Association for the Study of Peak Oil, 1970 also marked the year when oil production began to decline. This article also summarized offshore operations in Atlantic Canada and the advent of enhanced recovery techniques, including the development of carbon sequestration. 6 figs

  1. The year that was : getting a bead on oil demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Knapp, D.

    2002-01-01

    The qualitative factors that generally impact oil demand were reviewed with particular reference to how each factor played out in year 2001 when oil patterns never seemed to establish themselves. In the first part of 2001, growth was slightly too fast while in the second half it was a bit too slow. The normal impacts of the economy, oil prices, weather, and gas market developments did not play out with typical timing or degree, particularly with the advent of September 11 and the special conditions that dominated some products in specialized markets such as jet fuel or U.S. utilities gas substitutable oil generation. This presentation addresses the changing geographic mix of oil demand as it relates to differences in economic conditions and how oil price changes affect different consuming countries. Year 2001 also saw widely varied weather conditions worldwide. General oil market balances affect oil demand, but most focus in 2001 was directed toward oil supply, on OPEC compliance and on OPEC/non-OPEC cooperation. However, oil demand will continue to be a critical factor within petroleum markets. It is predicted that growth in demand for oil and not oil production will save the day for producers in the second half of 2002. 10 figs

  2. Comparative CO2 flux measurements by eddy covariance technique using open- and closed-path gas analysers over the equatorial Pacific Ocean

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fumiyoshi Kondo

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Direct comparison of air–sea CO2 fluxes by open-path eddy covariance (OPEC and closed-path eddy covariance (CPEC techniques was carried out over the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Previous studies over oceans have shown that the CO2 flux by OPEC was larger than the bulk CO2 flux using the gas transfer velocity estimated by the mass balance technique, while the CO2 flux by CPEC agreed with the bulk CO2 flux. We investigated a traditional conflict between the CO2 flux by the eddy covariance technique and the bulk CO2 flux, and whether the CO2 fluctuation attenuated using the closed-path analyser can be measured with sufficient time responses to resolve small CO2 flux over oceans. Our results showed that the closed-path analyser using a short sampling tube and a high volume air pump can be used to measure the small CO2 fluctuation over the ocean. Further, the underestimated CO2 flux by CPEC due to the attenuated fluctuation can be corrected by the bandpass covariance method; its contribution was almost identical to that of H2O flux. The CO2 flux by CPEC agreed with the total CO2 flux by OPEC with density correction; however, both of them are one order of magnitude larger than the bulk CO2 flux.

  3. Post Gulf War oil supply

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    May, W.R.

    1991-01-01

    One of the spin-offs from the Gulf War will be a change in the old order within OPEC. With Iraq and Kuwait production stopped because of the war, output from OPEC countries is around 23.5 million barrels per day compared with about 20 million last August before the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait. It is reported that there are some 225 to 235 million barrels of oil in inventory, worldwide, above normal levels. As seen in the accompanying graph, oil prices have drifted back to about the same level as in March 1990 from the wartime high of nearly $40/bbl. Before the invasion, Saudi Arabia's quota was 5.4 million bbls per day. Since then, Saudi has pumped at 7.7 to 7.9 bbls per day with plans to reactivate shut-in wells which will bring production capability to 10 million bbls per day. Other OPEC countries are at maximum capacity and some, Venezuela, for example, are also in the process of expanding production. This article discusses the effect of the war on the future oil supply, other countries' response to Iraq oil production, and prediction of possible oil price response

  4. International oil market: instability and restructuring

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ayoub, A

    1988-12-01

    The three phenomena which today dominate the international oil market are: 1. the downward price trend since 1981 and the uncertainty about medium and long term price evolution; 2. chronic price instability in the short term; 3. the trend toward new forms of vertical integration and concentration which are now stabilizing a market confronted by a weakening OPEC and free markets which are volatile. The new market restructuring the present period for the international oil sector as a transition period, with the following characteristics: 1. an evident convergence in the motivations of the major oil companies and of a number of OPEC countries, to see a certain stability restored in the oil market based on vertical integration and concentration; 2. markets cannot be stabilized by political agreements between the states, but only by reciprocal financial implications and participations between companies according to the rules of the business world; 3. the market as a whole will still continue for a certain time to be governed by the OPEC-free market pair, with alternating domination by one or the other according to the economic situation. Nevertheless, the longer the market continues to be unstable, the more the trend toward concentration and integration will intensify.

  5. Major oil exporters may profit rather than lose, in a carbon-constrained world

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Persson, Tobias A.; Azar, C.; Johansson, D.; Lindgren, K.

    2007-01-01

    The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) claims compensation for losses in expected oil export revenues due to CO 2 mitigation measures in developing countries. These losses are expected for two primary reasons: a reduction in the consumption of oil in importing countries and a reduction in the producer price of oil (taxation in an importing country implies a transfer of rents from producers to consumers). So far, most studies have focused on these two mechanisms and corroborated that revenue losses for OPEC are to be expected. However, there are also mechanisms that may be expected to raise the price of oil products. In a cost-effective regime for dealing with climate change, i.e., a regime in which all or most countries participate and in which the same carbon price is applied on all carbon-emitting activities, the cost of using unconventional oil, or synthetic diesel from coal, will increase even more than the cost of using conventional oil. Given that reserves of conventional oil are expected to dwindle over time, heavy oils and coal to liquids might set the long-run price for liquid fuels, which means that the price of oil would increase beyond the carbon fee; i.e., the rent on conventional oil would increase. We use an energy-economic optimization model to analyze these three mechanisms. We find that the net present value of OPEC revenue from conventional oil increases slightly (at most by 4 percent) with a global CO 2 restriction regime. We also consider conditions under which this result does not hold

  6. Irradiation with X-rays phase-advances the molecular clockwork in liver, adrenal gland and pancreas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Müller, Mareike Hildegard; Rödel, Franz; Rüb, Udo; Korf, Horst-Werner

    2015-02-01

    The circadian clock of man and mammals shows a hierarchic organization. The master clock, located in the suprachiasmatic nuclei (SCN), controls peripheral oscillators distributed throughout the body. Rhythm generation depends on molecular clockworks based on transcriptional/translational interaction of clock genes. Numerous studies have shown that the clockwork in peripheral oscillators is capable to maintain circadian rhythms for several cycles in vitro, i.e. in the absence of signals from the SCN. The aim of the present study is to analyze the effects of irradiation with X-rays on the clockwork of liver, adrenal and pancreas. To this end organotypic slice cultures of liver (OLSC) and organotypic explant cultures of adrenal glands (OAEC) and pancreas (OPEC) were prepared from transgenic mPer2(luc) mice which express luciferase under the control of the promoter of an important clock gene, Per2, and allow to study the dynamics of the molecular clockwork by bioluminometry. The preparations were cultured in a membrane-based liquid-air interface culturing system and irradiated with X-rays at doses of 10 Gy and 50 Gy or left untreated. Bioluminometric real-time recordings show a stable oscillation of all OLSC, OAEC and OPEC for up to 12 days in vitro. Oscillations persist after irradiation with X-rays. However, a dose of 50 Gy caused a phase advance in the rhythm of the OLSC by 5 h, in the OPEC by 7 h and in the OAEC by 6 h. Our study shows that X-rays affect the molecular clockwork in liver, pancreas and adrenal leading to phase advances. Our results confirm and extend previous studies showing a phase-advancing effect of X-rays at the level of the whole animal and single cells.

  7. United States geological survey's reserve-growth models and their implementation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klett, T.R.

    2005-01-01

    The USGS has developed several mathematical models to forecast reserve growth of fields both in the United States (U.S.) and the world. The models are based on historical reserve growth patterns of fields in the U.S. The patterns of past reserve growth are extrapolated to forecast future reserve growth. Changes of individual field sizes through time are extremely variable, therefore, the reserve growth models take on a statistical approach whereby volumetric changes for populations of fields are used in the models. Field age serves as a measure of the field-development effort that is applied to promote reserve growth. At the time of the USGS World Petroleum Assessment 2000, a reserve growth model for discovered fields of the world was not available. Reserve growth forecasts, therefore, were made based on a model of historical reserve growth of fields of the U.S. To test the feasibility of such an application, reserve growth forecasts were made of 186 giant oil fields of the world (excluding the U.S. and Canada). In addition, forecasts were made for these giant oil fields subdivided into those located in and outside of Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). The model provided a reserve-growth forecast that closely matched the actual reserve growth that occurred from 1981 through 1996 for the 186 fields as a whole, as well as for both OPEC and non-OPEC subdivisions, despite the differences in reserves definition among the fields of the U.S. and the rest of the world. ?? 2005 International Association for Mathematical Geology.

  8. Chemotherapy for neuroendocrine tumors: the Beatson Oncology Centre experience.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hatton, M Q; Reed, N S

    1997-01-01

    The role of chemotherapy in malignant neuroendocrine tumours is difficult to assess because of their rarity and variation in biological behaviour. We present a retrospective review of chemotherapy given to 18 patients with metastatic and one with locally advanced neuroendocrine tumours. There were eight poorly differentiated neuroendocrine tumours, six thyroid medullary carcinomas, two phaeochromocytomas, two pancreatic islet cell tumours and one undifferentiated neuroblastoma. Four patients were given 3-weekly dacarbazine, vincristine and cyclophosphamide (DOC) chemotherapy. In eight patients, this regimen was modified by substituting the dacarbazine and cisplatin and etoposide (OPEC). A further six patients were treated with dacarbazine reintroduced into the 3-weekly regimen (DOPEC). The remaining patient received cisplatin and etoposide. There were two complete responses (both with OPEC) and eight partial responses (two with DOC, three with OPEC and three with DOPEC). Five patients had stable disease and four progressed. Four received further chemotherapy on relapse, producing one complete and one partial response. The median response duration to initial chemotherapy was 10 months (range 3-34). The median survival was 12 months (range 1-42). The main toxicity was haematological, with grade 3-4 neutropenia in 12 patients; eight suffered episodes of sepsis. One death was treatment related. Other toxicity was mild although three patients discontinued vincristine with grade 2 neurotoxicity. The response rate and side effects of these three regimens appear comparable. We conclude that, although these patient numbers are small, combination chemotherapy produces an encouraging response rate (53%; 95% CI 30-75) in malignant neuroendocrine tumours, with acceptable toxicity.

  9. Geopolitics of oil markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liscom, W.L.

    1991-01-01

    Geopolitics can inject a great deal of uncertainty and cause fundamental shifts in the overall direction of oil markets, which would otherwise act in a fairly predictable and stable manner. The Iraqi invasion of Kuwait and the response of the USA were definitely linked with oil, and the aftermath of the invasion left four geopolitical issues affecting world oil markets. The provision authorizing $1.6 billion in Iraqi oil exports under the United Nations sanctions was imposed with little concern about the potential impact of these exports on the oil market; Iraq could export as much as 1 million bbl/d and it is unlikely that exports would be stopped once the $1.6 billion limit is reached. By making up most of the supply shortfall during the Kuwait crisis, Saudi Arabia suddenly became the producer of over a third of OPEC oil supplies and now dominates OPEC. The Saudis have indicated it will swing production according to world demand, irrespective of what OPEC wants, so that world oil demand will return strongly and remain. Middle East politics in general will determine the stability of oil supplies in the region for many of the countries. A producer-consumer dialogue at the high governmental level has started, with a view to some type of multilateral understanding in the light of mutual interests in secure oil supplies. This is not likely to have a big impact on oil markets without participation and support from the USA. The recent changes in the Soviet Union have potential impacts in regard to the attraction of that market for Western investment, in particular to assist exports. The worldwide environmental movement will also play a geopolitical role in the world oil market due to its influence on oil taxation policies

  10. Global production through 2005

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Foreman, N.E.

    1996-01-01

    Two companion studies released recently should provide great food for thought among geo-political strategists and various national governments. If predictions contained in these Petroconsultants studies of oil and gas production trends for the next 10 years are realized, there will be great repercussions for net exporters and importers, alike. After analyzing and predicting trends within each of the world's significant producing nations for the 1996--2005 period, the crude oil and condensate report concludes tat global production will jump nearly 24%. By contrast, worldwide gas output will leap 40%. The cast of characters among producers and exporters that will benefit from these increases varies considerably for each fuel. On the oil side, Russia and the OPEC members, particularly the Persian Gulf nations, will be back in the driver's seat in terms of affecting export and pricing patterns. On the gas side, the leading producers will be an interesting mix of mostly non-OPEC countries. The reemergence of Persian Gulf oil producers, coupled with an anticipated long-term decline among top non-OPEC producing nations should present a sobering picture to government planners within large net importers, such as the US. They are likely to find themselves in much the same supply trap as was experienced in the 1970s, only this time the dependence on foreign oil supplies will be much worse. Gas supplies will not be similarly constrained, and some substitution for oil is probable. Here, two articles, ''World oil industry is set for transition'' and ''Worldwide gas surges forward in next decade,'' present a summary of the findings detailed in Petroconsultants' recent studies

  11. The social costs to the US of monopolization of the world oil market, 1972--1991

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Greene, D.L.; Leiby, P.N.

    1993-03-01

    The partial monopolization of the world oil market by the OPEC cartel has produced significant economic costs to the economies of the world. This paper reports estimates of the costs of monopolization of oil to the US over the period 1972--1991. Two fundamental assumptions of the analysis are, (1) that OPEC has acted as a monopoly, albeit with limited control, knowledge, and ability to act and, (2) that the US and other consuming nations could, through collective (social) action affect the cartel's ability to act as a monopoly. We measure total costs by comparing actual costs for the 1972--1991 period to a hypothetical ''more competitive'' world oil market scenario. By measuring past costs we avoid the enormous uncertainties about the future course of the world oil market and leave to the reader's judgment the issue of how much the future will be like the past. We note that total cost numbers cannot be used to determine the value of reducing US oil use by one barrel. They are useful for describing the overall size of the petroleum problem and are one important factor in deciding how much effort should be devoted to solving it. Monopoly pricing of oil transfers wealth from US oil consumers to foreign oil producers and, by increasing theeconomic scarcity of oil, reduces the economy's potential to produce. The actions of the OPEC cartel have also produced oil price shocks, both upward and downward, that generate additional costs because of the economy's inherent inability to adjust quickly to a large change in energy prices. Estimated total costs to the United States from these three sources for the 1972--1991 period are put at $4.1 trillion in 1990$($1.2 T wealth transfer, $0.8 T macroeconomic adjustment costs, $2.1 T potential GNP losses). The cost of the US's primary oil supply contingency program is small ($10 B) by comparison

  12. Oil and the world energy crisis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1981-01-01

    Almost half of the needs for primary in the world are covered by oil. The rapid growth in oil prices because of the 1973 oil crisis caused a growth in prices for other source of energy as well, primarily coal and natural gas. The sale price of 1 m/sup 3/ of oil in 1973 equalled--$18.87, and later $31.45. In recent years, the cost of 1 m/sup 3/ of oil reached $188.69, and by the end of the century, according to forecasts, should reach $628.98. The cost of extracting 1 m/sup 3/ of oil in the Near East equals $1.57, and in the North Sea $44.03-75.48. The cost of producing 1 m/sup 3/ of synthetic oil from bitumenous sands equals $94.35-157.25, and from fuel shales $94.35-122.14. The explored oil reserves at the end of 1979 were, in million T: in the OPEC countries 58, 265, including 22, 261 in Saudi Arabia, and 25, 539 in the rest of the world. Oil extraction in 1979 was, in million T: in the OPEC countries 1574 (100%), including 510 (32.4%) in Saudi Arabia, 175 ((11.1%) in Iraq, 145 (9.2%) in Iran, 130 (8.2%) in Kuwait, 125 (7.9%) in Venezuela, 114 (7.2%) in Nigeria, 101 (6.4%) in Libya, 88 (5.6%) in the United Arab Emirates, other OPEC countries 186 (11.8%), in the other countries of the world 1550 (100%), including the United States 479 (30.9%), 108 (7.0%) in The Chinese People's Republic, 86 (5.5%) in Canada, 80 (5.2%) in Mexico, 79 (5.1%) in Great Britain, 28 (1.8%) in Arab Republic of Egypt, 18 (1.2%) in Norway, and 86 (5.5%) in other countries.

  13. Oil outlook to 2020

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shihab-Eldin, A.; Lounnas, R.; Brennand, G.

    2001-01-01

    The OPEC Conference in 2000 developed a price band target of 22-28 US dollars per barrel for the Basket of OPEC crudes, in a bid to stabilise prices. This decision was made in the wake of a 12-month period that had seen tremendous fluctuations, with prices ranging from below 10/b US dollars to above 30/b US dollars. It was expected that the identification of the new price band would play a major role in stabilising oil prices, to the benefit of both producer and consumer. The assessment of potential medium-to-long-term prospects for the oil market, contained herein, are intimately related to these important developments in international oil markets, as well as our understanding of evolving fundamentals. Part 1 of this article, developed using OPEC's World Energy Model (OWEM), describes the reference case. From the demand side, a detailed analysis of both economic growth and intensity movements is used to project the growth of oil demand that can reasonably be expected over the next two decades. A resource-based approach is used to determine feasible longer-term production, utilising the latest data made available last year by the US Geological Survey. The rest of the article deals with various scenarios. The price scenario section considers the impact of high prices, beyond 30/b US dollars, and questions their sustainability. The next section deals with tax scenarios, and shows the extent to which oil demand has been reduced by historical developments in oil product taxation. Finally, a slow growth scenario explores the implications of a pessimistic view of economic growth over the coming years. (author)

  14. Oil prices in a new light

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fesharaki, F.

    1994-01-01

    For a clear picture of how oil prices develop, the author steps away from the price levels to which the world is accustomed, and evaluates scientifically. What makes prices jump from one notch to another? The move results from a political or economic shock or the perception of a particular position by the futures market and the media. The shock could range from a war or an assassination to a promise of cooperation among OPEC members (when believed by the market) or to speculation about another failure at an OPEC meeting. In the oil market, only a couple of factual figures can provide a floor to the price of oil. The cost of production of oil in the Gulf is around $2 to $3/bbl, and the cost of production of oil (capital and operating costs) in key non-OPEC areas is well under $10/bbl. With some adjustments for transport and quality, a price range of $13/bbl to $16/bbl would correspond to a reasonable sustainable floor price. The reason for prices above the floor price has been a continuous fear of oil supply interruptions. That fear kept prices above the floor price for many years. The fear factor has now almost fully disappeared. The market has gone through the drama of the Iranian Revolution, the Iran-Iraq war, the tanker war, the invasion of Kuwait, and the expulsions of the Iraqis. And still the oil flowed -- all the time. It has become abundantly clear that fears above the oil market were unjustified. Everyone needs to export oil, and oil will flow under the worst circumstances. The demise of the fear factor means that oil prices tend toward the floor price for a prolonged period

  15. Oil: economic and political factors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ayoub, A.

    1994-01-01

    This article deals with the evolution of the international petroleum sector since 1973 with a special view to interdependence between the economic and political factors that influence it. Two issues are focused upon: (1) the effects of the nationalization of oil companies on the sharing of oil rents and on changes in the structure of the oil market; and (2) the determination of oil prices. The latter involves a discussion of, on the one hand, the political and economic behaviour of the United States and Saudi Arabia and, on the other, the combination of cooperation and conflict that has tended to characterize relations among OPEC countries. (author). 30 refs

  16. De bilfrie søndage 1973-74

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Meilby, René; Wagner, Michael

    2012-01-01

    The Yom Kippur war in October 1973 resulted in an oil embargo from OPEC – for eleven weekends it was strictly forbidden to drive on Sundays in Denmark. This was basically a psychological or symbolic measure to heighten the public awareness of the fundamental dependency on oil in Denmark. The proh...... much less social harm than a rationing of gasoline or other harsh measures to everyday transportation. This event marks the crucial turning point of the mediation and consumption junction from leisure to everyday automobilism....

  17. Geopolitical hotspots : Saudi Arabia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roberts, J.

    2004-01-01

    This presentation reviewed the geopolitics of energy in the Middle East, with particular reference to Saudi Arabia as a potential hotspot. The author examined the question of who actually governs Saudi Arabia and the core relationship between Crown Prince Abdullah and the interior Minister, Prince Nayef. Issues regarding the country's social stability were discussed with reference to the high unemployment rate. The financial security of Saudi Arabia was also discussed with reference to the need for economic and political reform. Expectations for Saudi petroleum output were outlined along with regional spurs for energy competition and OPEC participation

  18. Do we have to fear a forth petroleum crash?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jestin-Fleury, N.

    1998-01-01

    This paper analyses the worldwide energy scenarios for the forecasting of petroleum supply and demand in the year 2020: competition with natural gas industry, oil reserves, resources, production, development of new technologies, investments, fields development, drop of production costs, exploitation of tar sands, extra-heavy crudes, bituminous shales, reduction of the petroleum consumption in the transportation sector (development of LPG and electric powered vehicles, chemical conversion of natural gas, fuel cells), increase of the OPEC countries production, evolution of nuclear energy and economical impact of a serious fight against greenhouse gases emission and climate changes. (J.S.)

  19. 13th CERI [Canadian Energy Research Inst.] international oil and gas markets conference

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1994-01-01

    At an oil and gas industry conference, papers were presented on world oil supply and demand, energy geopolitics, world oil prices, the status of the Chinese oil/gas industry and prospects for exploration and development, Latin American oil/gas markets and development opportunities, the oil and gas industries in non-OPEC Middle East countries (Oman, Yemen, Turkey), oil and gas markets in North America, and financial and regulatory aspects of domestic gas markets in Canada and the USA. Separate abstracts have been prepared for 17 papers from this conference

  20. Future of gas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Forbes, A.; Widdershoven, C.; Nicola, S.; Cragg, C.

    2009-01-01

    Two articles and two columns in this section on the future of natural gas. In the first article attention is paid to the possibility that large natural gas producers are setting up a cartel a la OPEC. Most experts argue that the structure of gas markets makes the gas business much less amenable to cartelisation than the oil business. If that is true, why are so many people in the gas industry afraid of a gas cartel? The second article focuses on the future role of North Africa in the supply of natural gas

  1. Challenge - oil crisis. Herausforderung Oelkrise. Risiken - Vorsorge - Alternativen

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vogler, O

    1981-01-01

    After a short survey on recent developments of energy supply the risks of future energy supply and its effects are discussed. The parameters of dependence on oil-producing countries are studied and an evaluation is given on the measures which have to be taken by the Western industrialized countries in response to the dependence on oil. Further subjects are: mechanism of oil distribution in case of crisis, long-term cooperation of producer countries, measures on international level in the USA and Japan, and the energy-importing countries in the conflict area between OPEC- and industrialized countries.

  2. North American oil demand outlook

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stewart, M.B.

    1995-01-01

    An understanding of the relationship of economic growth and potential petroleum product demand is needed to forecast the potential for North American oil demand growth as well as knowledge of world supply and price. The bullish expectations for economic growth in the US and Canada auger well for North American refiners and marketeers. The growth in world economic output forecast, however, means a larger oil demand and an increase in OPEC's pricing power. Such price increases could depress North American oil demand growth. (author)

  3. What have we learned from the experience of low oil prices?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alhajji, A.F.

    2001-01-01

    This article is an attempt to assess the effect of the low oil prices the world experienced in the mid-1980s, 1998 and early 1999. Such an assessment will help us predict the consequences of low oil prices in the future. The study focuses on the boon and bane of low oil prices from the producers' and consumers' points of view. Low oil prices, which are not related to technology and lower production costs, have depleted oil reserves, increased the income gap between consumers and producers, created friction among OPEC Members and between OPEC and non-OPEC producers, and led to the imposition of tariffs on oil imports in consuming countries. In addition, they have led to economic hardship in oil-producing countries, including declines in oil revenue, budget deficits, budget cuts and cancelled projects, borrowing and debts, deterioration in the balance of payments, negative economic growth, currency devaluations and political unrest. They have affected oil companies through reduced earnings, forced lay-offs of workers, lower investment and increased mergers. Despite these disadvantages, oil producers may benefit from low oil prices in the long run. They will increase demand, slow the process of substitution and decrease non-OPEC production. Consumers, on the other hand, will benefit from low oil prices, through higher economic growth and disposable income, and lower legislative and import costs. In addition, consumers will drive faster and longer. These benefits do not come without cost. Low prices will also increase the future vulnerability of consuming countries and lead to more dependence on oil at the expense of alternative energy sources, more dependence on oil imports, more waste, more environmental damage and less efficiency. After outlining the advantages and disadvantages, the study concludes that the disadvantages of low oil prices outweigh their benefits; that is, low oil prices have caused substantial damage. This is due to market inefficiencies and

  4. A New Era of Oil Abundance?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aoun, Marie-Claire

    2015-09-01

    From 2014 to 2015, the price of oil fell. The price drop is explained by several factors: a significant increase of oil production in the United States, the resumption of Libyan and Iraqi exports, the possible lifting of sanctions against Iran, and slowing growth in developing countries. The situation is having negative effects on oil-producing countries, but the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) remains divided as to its stance on the situation, making it all the more difficult to predict future trends in oil prices. Reprint of an article published in 'Politique Etrangere', vol. 80, no.4, Winter 2015. (author)

  5. An oil barrel against a hundred lies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Porcher, Th.

    2009-01-01

    In this book, the author shades light on the OPEC's strategy of exhausting the other oil producing countries' reserves in order to be in a monopoly situation. It reveals the content of oil contracts, the sordid reality of the relations between oil companies and producing countries. Thanks to a cross-comparison between declarations and inquiries, it points out the errors made by experts and their, sometimes disastrous, consequences for indebted countries. Finally it proposes a scenario of the World's situation by the year 2050 and demonstrates that a break up of our oil dependence and a change of our behaviours have become urgent priorities. (J.S.)

  6. Iraqi oil industry slowly returning to normal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1992-01-01

    This paper reports that Iraq is making progress in putting its battered petroleum industry back together 1 1/2 years after the Persian Gulf war ended. OPEC News Agency (Opecna) reported the finish of reconstruction of Iraq's Mina al-Bakr oil terminal on the northern tip of the Persian Gulf, using Iraqi know-how and engineering personnel. The terminal, heavily damaged during the gulf conflict, has been restored to its prewar loading capacity of 1.6 million b/d at a cost of $16 million. Ninety per cent of the port had been damaged

  7. The Arab Boycott of Israel Economic Political Warfare Against Israel

    Science.gov (United States)

    1992-12-01

    Corollas a year in Israel beginning in 1992. Nissan has indicated it is ready to make a similar move, and Mazda appears to be not far behind. [Ref. 104...Political and Diplomatic History of the Arab World, 1900-1967, A Chronological Study, vol.1, Information Handling Services Publishers, Washington D.C...pp.167-170, St. Martin’s Press, New York, 1987. 48. Faud Rouhani, A History of OPEC, pp.5-13, New York: Praeger Publishers, 1970. 49. Faisal and Oil

  8. Boomerang effect of climate policy?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van Gelder, J.W.

    1999-01-01

    Researchers at the Netherlands Energy Research Foundation (ECN) and the National Institute of Public Health and Environmental Protection (RIVM) project that fossil fuel prices will rise only gradually in the next century. They also expect the gas price mainly to follow the oil price. A stringent global climate policy will do very little to change that. The analysis shows that fossil fuel prices during the next century will depend mainly on the cost of extracting the various conventional and non conventional oil reserves in the world, and by the strategies of OPEC and their allies

  9. The new great game : international oil markets; Middle East domination or regionalisation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Odell, P.R.

    1998-01-01

    The dynamics of international supply and demand for oil and its effect on world oil prices are discussed. The impact of stagnant prices over the past 15 years on the Middle East, Russia, China and OPEC members was described, together with an attempt to explain the reasons for: (1) Middle East domination or regionalisation, (2) the emergence of a regionalized oil industry, (3) the Middle East as the residual supplier, and (4) the future of Middle East oil and of traded markets. 3 tabs., 5 figs

  10. Energy policy aspects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mattick, W.

    1980-01-01

    A general survey on the development of the total energy sector of the Federal Republic of Germany is given; the comparative presentations cover up to two decades. After some fundamental remarks on the development of the gross national product, primary energy and gross electricity consumption, as well as on the balance of performance and trade of the FRG with the OPEC countries the consumer behaviour is discussed in particular. This behaviour has scarcely changed between 1973 and 1979. The increasing demand and other omissions in the power plant construction resulting from various causes make stronger efforts in the construction of nuclear power plants necessary. (UA) [de

  11. Panorama 2001 energy and petroleum, the new international deal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brodhag, Ch.

    2001-01-01

    For the industrialized countries, the rapid economic growth presents constraints stemming from public concern over questions of environment and safety. In response to these changes the petroleum industry and the petrochemistry are confronted to a double challenge which is discussed in this document: from the technical point of view, the carbon emissions decrease and the refining; from an economic point of view, the Kyoto negotiation, the geo-political stakes, the OPEC the United States and the European positions and the benefit of allowance stemming from the expensive energy prices. (A.L.B.)

  12. A New Era of Oil Abundance?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aoun, Marie-Claire

    2015-01-01

    From 2014 to 2015, the price of oil fell. The price drop is explained by several factors: a significant increase of oil production in the United States, the resumption of Libyan and Iraqi exports, the possible lifting of sanctions against Iran, and slowing growth in developing countries. The situation is having negative effects on oil-producing countries, but the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) remains divided as to its stance on the situation, making it all the more difficult to predict future trends in oil prices

  13. The oil price outlook in 1993 and beyond

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Himona, I.

    1993-01-01

    The current reality appears to be that with spare capacity at a minimum, oil prices are truly market determined. OPEC's actual and perceived influence is much reduced, and in the absence of the cartel, in view of weak demand and fears about potential Iraqi return, the market's tendency is to push prices down. On the basis of ''good, old fashioned extrapolation'', if the current spare capacity of 5 percent is enough to depress prices, then the forecast excess capacity of 19 per cent by 1996 will certainly achieve as much - if not more. (author)

  14. Soviet energy export prospects

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Scanlan, Tony

    1991-05-01

    The Soviet Union produces 20% of world energy but since 1988 this is in decline. Awakening consumerism and a sea-change in the structure of foreign trade and internal investment are placing this key industry into unprecedented uncertainty. The difference between success and failure goes beyond the 1988 peak of six million barrels daily of exports in oil equivalent. The article quantifies the key areas of energy uncertainty as equal in volume to total OPEC output and sees the long-term changes of success more than ever dependent on coordinated planning and investment as well as on market reality. (Author).

  15. Algeria: World Oil Report 1991

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1991-01-01

    This paper reports that Algeria is positioned to achieve important, new natural gas markets. Over half of its hydrocarbon income is from exports of gas and derived products, liquified petroleum gas (LPG) and condensates, which are not subject to Opec quotas. Officials are moving away from inflexible past policies and are becoming vastly more realistic now that foreign investment laws have been liberalized and there is a need to attract foreign investors. Sonatrach must address three key issues to consolidate recent progress. Sales to existing customers in Europe, like Italy, must be expanded; new customers and markets need to found: and U.S. liquified natural gas (LNG) markets must be revived

  16. The prospects for oil prices, supply and demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Al-Fathi, S.A.

    1991-01-01

    The major factors that have influenced price developments are briefly discussed. The future course of oil prices and the supply/demand fundamentals that are likely to influence them will be reviewed in the light of OPEC producers' quest for stability in the market and the maintenance of the role of oil in the energy spectrum. The environment and climate change debate is likely to influence development in the energy and oil markets for a long time to come. Its impact on oil demand is thus discussed, together with its implication for oil prices. (author)

  17. Energy substitution in oil-exporting LDC's the Indonesian experience

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rose, A.; Soelistijo, U. (Pennsylvania State University, University Park (USA). Dept. of Mineral Economics)

    1989-02-01

    Many oil-exporting LDCs defy the stereotype of an OPEC country with an excess of oil reserves for current and future needs. In this paper it is suggested that serious consideration be given to the substitution of other fossil energy resources for oil used domestically in order to release more oil for export. This will generate more foreign exchange and extend the life of the reserve base. A coal-oil substitution programme for Indonesia is presented and analysed to illustrate the economic development benefits of this strategy. 11 refs., 1 fig., 4 tabs.

  18. Facts and figures: a graphical analysis of world energy up to 1991

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1992-01-01

    Various data are given in graphical form on primary energy production, consumption and on reserves. The energy carriers considered are: oil, gas, coal, hydro and nuclear (uranium). The subdivision of countries is done in categories like developing countries, OECD, Eastern Europe, OPEC or alternatively as geographical regions. On page 18 there is a section on 'nuclear power electricity generation capacity'. Another group of data are on non-energy figures like GPD and trade; here the partners are the groups 'developing countries' vs 'industrialized countries'

  19. [Personal experience with VP-16 in the treatment of malignant lymphomas at the Chemotherapy Clinic of the Oncology Center--M. Skłodowskiej-Curie Institute in Warsaw].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pałucka, A; Walewski, J; Siedlecki, P; Zborzil, J

    1990-01-01

    Eighteen patients with advanced malignant lymphomas who had progressed with previous chemotherapy were treated with LEPP (chlorambucil, VP-16, procarbazine, prednisone). One complete response and 5 partial remissions were observed, yielding an overall response rate of 33%, with median response duration of about 2 months. Twenty three patients with advanced Hodgkin's disease all who had progressed with previous chemotherapy (MOPP and ABVD) and 19 of them also after radiation therapy were treated with third line salvage chemotherapy consisting of OPEC (VP- 16, chlorambucil, vincristine and prednisone). Two complete response and 3 partial remissions were obtained for overall response rate of 21% with median duration of about 9 months.

  20. International energy indicators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosoi, E., Jr.

    1982-01-01

    Data are presented under the following headings: world crude oil production, OPEC crude oil productive capacity; world crude oil and refined product inventory levels; and oil consumption in the OECD countries. The USSR crude oil production and exports; free world and US nuclear electricity generation; US domestic oil supply; US gross imports of crude oil and products; landed cost of Saudi crude, current and 1974 dollars; US coal trade; US natural gas trade; summary of US merchandise trade; and energy/GNP ratio data are also included.

  1. Toward an energy efficient community

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horn, M.

    1980-10-01

    The current oil policy of the OPEC countries means that a substantial oil shortage may be expected in the future. Conservative estimates indicate an oil shortage of 65 billion tons in the year 2000. The results of numerous new studies show that (from the technological point of view) the savings potential is high enough to achieve an absolute decrease in total energy consumption by the year 2000, provided better use is made of secondary energy sources in the form of electric power, gas, and solar heat.

  2. International energy indicators, February - March 1982

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rossi, E., Jr.

    Data are compiled and graphs are presented for: world crude oil production, 1974 to 1981; OPEC crude oil productive capacity; world crude oil and refined product inventory levels; 1975 to 1981; oil consumption in OECD countries, 1975 to 1981; USSR crude oil production and exports, 1975 to 1981; free world and US nuclear electricity generation, 1973-currrent capacity; US domestic oil supply, 1977 to 1981; US gross imports of crude oil and products, 1973 to 1981; landed cost of Saudi crude current and 1974 dollars; US coal trade, 1975 to 1981; US natural gas trade, 1975 to 1981; summary of US merchandise trade, 1977 to 1981; and energy/gross national product ratio.

  3. Economics Aspects of Increasing the Oil Price

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Grendel Peter

    2004-09-01

    Full Text Available In paper I describe mainly high price of oil, which has influence on many circumstances. The important effect on growing up the price of oil has situation in Mid-east, and everyday rising consumption of oil in China. Meaningful position have USA, which using 45% of word energy. The problem is particularly in daily mining of lode. In next part i describing aspect of this situation on stock-exchange, mainly behaviour of speculators, and OPEC, and also presure on inflation in Euro-zone. In the last chapter I discuss about reaction of the big world oil concern like CONOCO, SHELL, BP, OMV and MOL.

  4. An overview of the energy situation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pitts, D. R.

    1978-01-01

    Beginning with a historical review of the domestic pattern of energy usage, the current dependence of the United States upon dwindling petroleum resources is examined. The possible limit of petroleum usage is discussed, and recent oil production trends are presented. Coupling these with projected analyses of OPEC oil productive capability in the early 1980's indicates a serious worldwide as well as American energy problem in the next decade. The need for conservation and rapid development of application of alternative energy resources is discussed including quantitative projections of significant conservation efforts as well as estimates of domestic alternative energy resource capabilities.

  5. On asymmetric causal relationships in Petropolitics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Balan Feyza

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to examine whether the First Law of Petropolitics denominated by Friedman in 2006 is valid for OPEC countries. To do this, this paper analyses the relationship between political risk and oil supply by applying the asymmetric panel causality test suggested by Hatemi-J (2011 to these countries for the period 1984-2014. The results show that the First Law of Petropolitics is valid for Angola, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, given that positive oil supply shocks significantly lead to negative political stability shocks, and negative oil supply shocks significantly lead to positive shocks in political stability.

  6. The hidden face of the petroleum

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Laurent, E.

    2006-02-01

    For the first time, a book reveals what that was hidden to the public opinions: why the petroleum crisis of 1973 what only a manipulation, an arrangement between the OPEC and the petroleum companies, why the data concerning the petroleum reserves are wrong and increased by the producers countries, how Washington used the Saudi petroleum weapon to create the Soviet Union fall, and why from march 2001 maps of the Iraq (where were drawn the future petroleum explorations) were working documents for the vice President Cheney and petroleum managers for the ''secret society''. (A.L.B.)

  7. Feedback versus open-loop leader/fringe models of the oil supply market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pelot, R.P.; Fuller, J.D.

    1991-01-01

    A multiperiod feedback Stackelberg model of exhaustible resources is presented. The results of the feedback model are compared with those from a corresponding open-loop formulation to determine whether the solution to the latter, and much simpler, model produces the same or similar outcomes. An analysis of the world oil market with OPEC as leader dictating the price to a competitive fringe comprised of the remaining oil suppliers demonstrates the features of the model. It permits variable length periods and cumulative extraction cost functions

  8. An unexpected beginning of year on the international petroleum market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nachet, S.

    1998-01-01

    The petroleum market seems to enter a durable easing phase in 1998. Most of price projections are between 16 and 18 U.S. Dollar per barrel of Brent, which represents a 1 to 2 U.S. Dollar reduction with respect to the same projections realized in December 1997. This paper analyzes the reasons of this situation and the possible duration of their effects: increase of the OPEC's production quotas in the end of November, the renewal of the resolution 986 of the United Nations concerning Iraq exports, and a mild winter and the Asian crisis which reduces the worldwide demand. (J.S.)

  9. Unrequited demand : the Middle East and the Caspian in the global energy context

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2001-01-01

    Many countries in the world would like to diversify their oil supply sources and rely less on Middle Eastern oil. For that reason, there will be considerable focus on the ability of the Caspian states and Russia to increase their output. It will be crucial for the Middle Eastern countries, the Caspian states and Russia to promote energy development in a commercial manner and not in political rivalry. If not, other non-OPEC producers such as the Gulf of Mexico, various Atlantic producers, offshore West Africa, the Brazilian offshore basins, and the United Kingdom's West of Shetland reservoir will gain the market. The biggest gainers, however, would be the core OPEC producers of the Middle East and Venezuela who would profit from high prices resulting from their own minimal efforts to increase capacity. The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts an increase in total primary energy supply of 2.0 per cent over the next 20 years. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts an increase of 2.1 per cent, while ExxonMobil's outlook is for an increase of 1.9 per cent. The IEA believes demand will rise to about 115 mb/d in 2020 and the EIA believes it will reach 117 mb/d. The two agencies do not agree where this oil will come from. The IEA believes that non-OPEC supplies will grow much less than the EIA anticipates. This paper also described production politics and financial constraints in the Gulf states with particular reference to capacity increase attitudes in the core OPEC states of Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Venezuela. The opportunities and constraints for the Caspian (Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan) to become a major force in world energy production were described with reference to the impact that oil price volatility has already had on predictions of Caspian availability. The IEA expects that the Caspian will be able to produce 75 mt a year for export by 2010. An overview of the different regions

  10. A new paradigm for oil?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Noel, P.

    2004-09-01

    The author takes stock on the dynamic of the oil system. He shows how the economic laws can be applied to the petroleum market and analyzes the effects of the prices evolution. The creeping oil shock of 2003-2004 has proven less disruptive than one may have anticipated. Commodity cycles on the one hand the shaky management of marginal supply by OPEC on the other hand, are very likely to create ample prices swings with little relations, if any, to the actual scarcity-or lack thereof-of oil resources. (A.L.B.)

  11. Venezuelan oil - the unfulfilled promise

    OpenAIRE

    2007-01-01

    Winston Churchill once said that ‘Russia was a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma.’ One is reminded of these words when approaching the subject of Venezuela’s oil strategy in the last few years. Venezuelan politics, and by implication its economy, have always been product and hostage to oil and the capriciousness of the oil price. A founder member of OPEC, and throughout history a very vocal, and at times vociferous advocate for the rights of the sovereign state against the inte...

  12. Challenge of the oil market

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jaidah, A M

    1981-11-01

    The oil market is experiencing a different environment in 1981 as demand for OPEC oil fades while customers run down their inventories. The oil-producing countries face a new challenge, but the need of consuming countries for secure oil supplies and the need of producing countries to broaden their economies and reduce dependence on a depleting resource continue. Two episodes 1973 to 1975 and late 1978 to the present, illustrate the current market situation. The impact of these episodes is the basis for recommended long-run goals that go beyond market management to the real challenge of converting oil resources into the real assets of economic development. (DCK)

  13. Saudi Arabia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sambart, A.

    1998-01-01

    Saudi Arabia is a country of the first importance because of its oil reserves (26% of the known world reserves) and its oil production: the third of the whole Opec production. This energetic gold mine finances up to 75% of the budget and assures 90% of its exports. The capacity of Saudi Arabia to refine crude oil is now comparable to that of France. Nevertheless the inflexibility of government expenditures makes foreign investors necessary to a balanced industrial development. It is expected that the Board of Trade soon presents some dispositions in order to promote and ease the opening to foreign investors. (A.C.)

  14. Petroleum: the neo-pessimism is unfounded; Petrole: le neo-pessimisme est infonde

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Noel, P

    2004-10-15

    The author takes stock on the dynamic of the oil system. He shows how the economic laws can be applied to the petroleum market and analyzes the effects of the prices evolution. The creeping oil shock of 2003-2004 has proven less disruptive than one may have anticipated. Commodity cycles on the one hand the shaky management of marginal supply by OPEC on the other hand, are very likely to create ample prices swings with little relations, if any, to the actual scarcity-or lack thereof-of oil resources. (A.L.B.)

  15. Petroleum: the neo-pessimism is unfounded

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Noel, P.

    2004-10-01

    The author takes stock on the dynamic of the oil system. He shows how the economic laws can be applied to the petroleum market and analyzes the effects of the prices evolution. The creeping oil shock of 2003-2004 has proven less disruptive than one may have anticipated. Commodity cycles on the one hand the shaky management of marginal supply by OPEC on the other hand, are very likely to create ample prices swings with little relations, if any, to the actual scarcity-or lack thereof-of oil resources. (A.L.B.)

  16. Challenge - oil crisis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vogler, O.

    1981-01-01

    After a short survey on recent developments of energy supply the risks of future energy supply and its effects are discussed. The parameters of dependence on oil-producing countries are studied and an evaluation is given on the measures which have to be taken by the Western industrialized countries in response to the dependence on oil. Further subjects are: mechanism of oil distribution in case of crisis, long-term cooperation of producer countries, measures on international level in the USA and Japan, and the energy-importing countries in the conflict area between OPEC- and industrialized countries. (UA) [de

  17. US oil dependency and energy security

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Noel, P.

    2002-12-01

    As an introduction to the seminar of the 30 May 2002 on the US oil dependency and energy security, the author analyzes the different factors which characterize the american petroleum market situation today. A special interest is thus done to the price increase of 1999-2000 due to the legislation evolution, the gas market tensions, the impact and the power of the OPEC on the international markets, the 11 September 2001 attempts and their political and military consequences. The author also discusses about three papers written after the seminar. (A.L.B.)

  18. Panorama 2001 energy and petroleum, the new international deal; Panorama 2001 energie et petrole, la nouvelle donne internationale

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brodhag, Ch. [Ecole Nationale Superieure des Mines, 42 - Saint-Etienne (France)

    2001-07-01

    For the industrialized countries, the rapid economic growth presents constraints stemming from public concern over questions of environment and safety. In response to these changes the petroleum industry and the petrochemistry are confronted to a double challenge which is discussed in this document: from the technical point of view, the carbon emissions decrease and the refining; from an economic point of view, the Kyoto negotiation, the geo-political stakes, the OPEC the United States and the European positions and the benefit of allowance stemming from the expensive energy prices. (A.L.B.)

  19. Do nations still need national energy policies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schlesinger, James [Lehman Brothers, Washington, DC (United States); Odell, P [Erasmus Univ., Rotterdam (Netherlands). Dept. of International Energy Studies; Jones, D

    1993-02-01

    Once again the issue has arisen whether a national energy policy is necessary or even desirable. No doubt renewed debate has been stimulated by recent developments - the collapse of the Soviet threat, an altered perception of the power of OPEC, or a jaundiced view regarding the effectiveness of governments in this arena. Yet, beneath the surface lie longer-standing issues regarding interests and ideology. This article attempts to deal with the issue, first, as a generic level, then in terms of the transformed energy market, and, finally, in relation to the content of energy policy. (author)

  20. Oil prices are raising up. So what?; Le petrole flambe. Et alors?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lecompte-Boin, G.

    2000-06-01

    The oil crack that started about a year ago has had practically no impact on the French economy and economic growth. Crude oil prices have increased about three times since the beginning of 1999. The increase of production quotas decided by the OPEC on June 21, 2000 has had no effect and the barrel price has stayed stuck to 30 US$. Even if oil prices do not change in the forthcoming months, nobody will care. This short paper analyzes this paradoxical situation. (J.S.)

  1. Environmental aspects of nuclear power applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Penner, S.S.; Howe, J.P.; Icerman, L.

    1976-01-01

    The paper estimates the future dangers from the nuclear industry. Historically, the occurrence of nuclear reactor accidents has not been a hazard to the U.S. population, because of relatively limited reactor deployment and because of relatively safe operation. Some factual inputs were taken from the Rasmussen Report, ''An Assessment of Accident Risks in U.S. Commercial Nuclear Power Plants.'' It is noted that data on nuclear power plant accidents follow a curve about four orders of magnitude below that for persons on the ground killed by air crashes. Data show that coal mining produced about ten times as many disabilities as uranium mining and milling per 10 6 MW(e)h of energy recovered, while the number of injuries per 10 6 man-hours of work was roughly comparable for these two types of occupations. Information on the following subjects is then presented: radiation protection standards, radiation exposures; radiation emitted from nuclear reactors under normal operating conditions; accidents involving nuclear fission reactors; fuel reprocessing; nuclear waste disposal; estimates of environmental and safety aspects of fusion power; licensing of nuclear reactors; nuclear safeguards: diversion of nuclear materials, sabotage, and subversion; and nuclear energy and trade deficits in which data are presented estimating a timetable expressing the economic power of OPEC, or the time required for OPEC wealth to purchase the world's major assets

  2. Middle East geopolitics and the great new game

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    El Mallakh, D.H.

    1998-01-01

    The dynamics of supply and demand of OPEC oil was the focus of this presentation. The geopolitics involved in moving crude oil from land-locked Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan was also discussed, along with the constraints imposed by the lack of adequate means to move land-locked crude oil and natural gas, and the reality of additional investments of $8 billion to $20 billion that will be needed over the next 10 to 20 years to establish a pipeline network. A look at U.S. crude oil imports shows that OPEC's share reached a high at 85 per cent of total imports in 1977, but declined steadily to bottom out at 41 per cent in 1985. Issues of supply security have been invoked in avoiding overdependence on Middle East (Gulf) oil imports, based on concern over the region's political instability, including inter-state conflicts. The heavy reliance of governments in the Gulf states on oil exports for much of their revenue, the implications of current demographics in the region, and the probability of unmet expectations leading to rising discontent, have important implications for future oil supply and demand from the Middle East. Much of the paper is devoted to the exploration of these implications. 6 tabs

  3. The oil market in the 1980s -- a decade of decline

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shojai, S.; Katz, B.S.

    1992-01-01

    Part 1 of this volume presents a profile of the economic dislocations and hardships that resulted from the breakup of OPEC and non-OPEC nation oil exporters. The economies and economic plans of these nations were buffeted by the oil price decline. Slowed foreign exchange receipts, declining terms of trade, and fluctuating exchange rates all mitigated against oil suppliers. Part 2 investigates a range of oil importer responses to the economic ramifications of rising (1970s) and declining (1980s) oil prices. While the oil-importing Western nations adjusted to and benefited from the declining oil prices and oil suppliers bore the cost, there were also disparate economic effects on the developing world. Part 3 investigates the oil price decline fallout. The experiences of the 1980s permit an extended analysis of market conditions resulting from changes in the price of oil. Part 4 attempts to come to grips with the impact of price changes and future developments in the international world oil market

  4. Cartel surprised by quota reduction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Debnar, M.

    2003-01-01

    Development of world prices of petroleum in April - September 2003 are analysed. OPEC accepted a decision to lower oil production in 900 thousands barrels per day to 24.5 millions barrels per day from 1 November 2003. Although Russian Federation reports higher oil production every month, it does not represent danger for OPEC for the present. Problem is to import the oil. Situation will change dramatically from 2008. Russian Federation plans anyway to build gigantic pipeline to Murmansk port in Barents Sea. Thanks to it Russian oil export to USA should sharply extend. It was reported by Russian Minister of economy German Gref with note that construction of pipeline is priority for Russian Federation, which wants to diversification its oil export from traditional Europe. Project of pipeline construction from Western Siberia to deep water of Murmansk terminal was published by five oil companies leaded by Lukoil and Yukos already at the end of last year. Pipeline should cost 4 billions USD and it should transport up to 2.4 millions barrels of oil per day. In the meantime Caspian oil should start to flow to Europe

  5. iNUIT: Internet of Things for Urban Innovation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francesco Carrino

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Internet of Things (IoT seems a viable way to enable the Smart Cities of the future. iNUIT (Internet of Things for Urban Innovation is a multi-year research program that aims to create an ecosystem that exploits the variety of data coming from multiple sensors and connected objects installed on the scale of a city, in order to meet specific needs in terms of development of new services (physical security, resource management, etc.. Among the multiple research activities within iNUIT, we present two projects: SmartCrowd and OpEc. SmartCrowd aims at monitoring the crowd’s movement during large events. It focuses on real-time tracking using sensors available in smartphones and on the use of a crowd simulator to detect possible dangerous scenarios. A proof-of-concept of the application has been tested at the Paléo Festival (Switzerland showing the feasibility of the approach. OpEc (Optimisation de l’Eclairage public aims at using IoT to implement dynamic street light management and control with the goal of reducing street light energy consumption while guaranteeing the same level of security of traditional illumination. The system has been tested during two months in a street in St-Imier (Switzerland without interruption, validating its stability and resulting in an overall energy saving of about 56%.

  6. Oman's big switch

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stauffer, T.

    1998-01-01

    Two interlined changes in the oil situation in Oman are examined. Despite extensive use of new technology, there is little hope for further growth in oil production. This has influenced Oman's oil politics. In earlier years oil production was steadily expanded and Oman profited from the price stability due to OPEC's self-restraint whilst spurning co-operation with other states, including membership of OPEC. Now in the face of low prices, high production costs and a levelling off in output, Oman has joined with other producing states in a call for production restraint in the interests of collective price maintenance. With oil on the decline, the second change is that Oman is looking to the development of proven, major gas reserves to secure its future. But the government will make money from the condensates and natural gas liquids rather than from the methane. Most of the value lies in the liquids and condensates which will be stripped from the gas before it is piped to the coast for export as liquefied natural gas which commands only low prices at present. (UK)

  7. Explaining crude oil prices using fundamental measures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coleman, Les

    2012-01-01

    Oil is the world's most important commodity, and improving the understanding of drivers of its price is a longstanding research objective. This article analyses real oil prices during 1984–2007 using a monthly dataset of fundamental and market parameters that cover financial markets, global economic growth, demand and supply of oil, and geopolitical measures. The innovation is to incorporate proxies for speculative and terrorist activity and dummies for major industry events, and quantify price impacts of each. New findings are positive links between oil prices and speculative activity, bond yields, an interaction term incorporating OPEC market share and OECD import dependence, and the number of US troops and frequency of terrorist attacks in the Middle East. Shocks also prove significant with a $6–18 per barrel impact on price for several months. - Highlights: ► Article introduces new variables to the study of oil prices. ► New variables are terrorist incidents and military activity, and oil futures market size. ► Shocks prove important affecting prices by $6–18 per barrel for several months. ► OPEC market influence rises with OECD import dependence.

  8. Modelling the oil producers: Capturing oil industry knowledge in a behavioural simulation model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morecroft, J.D.W.; Van der Heijden, K.A.J.M.

    1992-01-01

    A group of senior managers and planners from a major oil company met to discuss the changing structure of the oil industry with the purpose of improving group understanding of oil market behaviour for use in global scenarios. This broad ranging discussion led to a system dynamics simulation model of the oil producers. The model produced new insights into the power and stability of OPEC (the major oil producers' organization), the dynamic of oil prices, and the investment opportunities of non-OPEC producers. The paper traces the model development process, starting from group discussions and leading to working simulation models. Particular attention is paid to the methods used to capture team knowledge and to ensure that the computer models reflected opinions and ideas from the meetings. The paper describes how flip-chart diagrams were used to collect ideas about the logic of the principal producers' production decisions. A sub-group of the project team developed and tested an algebraic model. The paper shows partial model simulations used to build confidence and a sense of ownership in the algebraic formulations. Further simulations show how the full model can stimulate thinking about producers' behaviour and oil prices. The paper concludes with comments on the model building process. 11 figs., 37 refs

  9. The demand for refined petroleum products in Iran: Estimation and projection

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kianian, A.M.

    1990-01-01

    The estimation and projection of the demand for refined petroleum products of the OPEC states, are important for the world petroleum market from both the demand and supply sides. In this context, this study forms an econometric model to estimte the demand for the total and four major refined petroleum products (RPPs) in Iran and project their future trends into the year 2000. The fact that Iran has the largest domestic demand for RPPs among all the OPEC members has motivated some research primarily to study the structure of the demand for such products. None, however, has utilized econometric models to estimate or project the demand for RPPs. The first section of this study discusses the structure of the Iranian energy market. Next, the demand functions for gasoline, kerosine, gas oil, fuel oil, and the total RPPs in Iran are estimated. The third section puts together the demand functions to form a model used to project the demand for RPPs up to the year 2000 under an historical scenario. Finally, some condlusions are offered. 7 tabs

  10. The future for heavy crude oil

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Horsnell, P.

    1995-01-01

    The expectation, still held in 1993, that the light oil-heavy crude oil differential would go on increasing in favour of light oil has not been fulfilled. Current perceptions are that heavy oil will continue to be relatively strong and there is no inevitable upward trend in light-heavy crude differentials. Non-OPEC production has grown significantly lighter overall in recent years and is likely to continue so for several more years. This is due to expanded light oil production in the North Sea, Latin America and the Far East, and contractions in heavy oil production in Russia and the USA. OPEC production has also become lighter with, in particular, an expansion in light oil and contraction in heavy grades from Saudi Arabia. At the same time, the nature of the demand from refineries has changed with the introduction of new units designed to process the residium from heavy oil distillation. Thus the supply of light oil has expanded while demand for it has contracted with the reverse being true for heavy oil. (2 figures, 1 table) (UK)

  11. Institutional arrangements for the reduction of proliferation risks formulation, evaluation, and implementation of institutional concepts. Appendices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1979-12-01

    The purpose of this supporting analysis is to provide a foundation for developing a model, an international or multinational institution capable of accomodating the back end of the fuel cycle, while meeting US nonproliferation goals. The analysis is based on a review of selected, defunct and extant institutions which, although not necessarily concerned with nonproliferation, have faced a trade-off between acceptability and effectiveness in meeting their objectives. Discussion of the various institutions is divided into three categories: international organizations, multinational consortia, and cartels or producer associations. Examples of international organizations include the International Seabed Authority, Intelsat, the United Nations and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). The International Seabed Authority is discussed. Multinational consortia are organizations that have been developed primarily to meet common commercial objectives. Membership includes at least three member nations. Examples include the Scandinavian Airline System (SAS), URENCO, Unilever, Royal Dutch Shell, Eurochemic, Eurodif, Euratom, European Coal and Steel Community, and Serena. Cartels or producer associations are multinational agreements that restrict market forces; viz, production, market share, customers or prices. Examples include the Intergovernmental Council of Copper Exporting Countries (CIPEC), the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), and the Fifth International Tin Agreement (ITA), as well as agreements governing diamonds and uranium, bauxite and coffee. OPEC, CIPEC and ITA are discussed

  12. Oil and development

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ellis, F

    1974-10-01

    The shift in world income due to the increase in oil prices has resulted in a world economy that has been thrown off balance. Nine papers are presented that explore the background and the main implications of this ''watershed'' in international relations, particularly the extent to which it will affect the development prospects of poor countries and the climate of trade between poor and rich nations in the next few years. Two papers, ''Diary of Events in the Oil Market 1971--1974'' and ''Statistical Background,'' provide information on the financial changes implied by the price increase; some of the figures should be treated as preliminary estimates only. ''Large International Firms in the Oil Industry'' examines the part played by the major oil companies in developments in the oil market leading up to the events of 1973. Two papers, ''Can OPEC Maintain Current Prices'' and ''OPEC As a Model for Other Mineral Exporters,'' present optimistic conclusions, from the viewpoint of developing countries, on their future capability for controlling their own destinies in trade. ''A Note on Some Issues Raised for Science and Technology Policy by the Increase in Oil Prices'' looks at options open to producers and consumers of raw materials. ''Assessing the Economic Impact on Developing Countries and Some Policy Suggestions,'' ''A Note on the Implications of the Oil Price Increases for British Aid Policy,'' and ''Confrontation Versus Co-operation'' are three papers concerned with difficulties of developing countries and particularly India, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka. (MCW)

  13. Effect of a pre-freezing treatment with cholesterol-loaded cyclodextrins on boar sperm longevity, capacitation dynamics, ability to adhere to porcine oviductal epithelial cells in vitro and DNA fragmentation dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tomás, C; Blanch, E; Fazeli, A; Mocé, E

    2013-01-01

    The aim of this work was to examine how a pre-freezing treatment with cholesterol-loaded cyclodextrins (CLC) affects boar sperm longevity, capacitation dynamics, ability to bind to a porcine telomerase-immortalised oviductal epithelial cell line (TERT-OPEC) in vitro and DNA integrity dynamics after freeze-thawing. Although the samples treated with CLC exhibited lower sperm quality than the control samples (P0.05) after long-term incubation (26h at 37 or 16°C). Additionally, the CLC-treated spermatozoa underwent similar capacitation and DNA fragmentation dynamics as the control spermatozoa (P>0.05). However, CLC-treated spermatozoa were better able to bind to TERT-OPEC in vitro (POPEC in vitro, which could have an effect on the establishment of the sperm reservoir in the ampullary--isthmic junction in vivo. Additionally, frozen-thawed spermatozoa can be stored at 16°C for at least 6h without a significant observable decline in sperm quality, which could be beneficial for the transport of thawed diluted doses of spermatozoa from the laboratory to the farm.

  14. Growth of Pseudomonas sp. TX1 on a wide range of octylphenol polyethoxylate concentrations and the formation of dicarboxylated metabolites.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Yi-Wen; Guo, Gia-Luen; Hsieh, Hsiao-Cheng; Huang, Shir-Ly

    2010-04-01

    Pseudomonas sp. TX1, is able to use octylphenol polyethoxylates (OPEO(n), or Triton X-100; average n = 9.5) as a sole carbon source. It can grow on 0.05-20% of OPEO(n) with a specific growth rate of 0.34-0.44 h(-1). High-performance liquid chromatography-mass spectrometer analysis of OPEO(n) degraded metabolites revealed that strain TX1 was able to shorten the ethoxylate chain and produce octylphenol (OP). Furthermore, formation of the short carboxylate metabolites, such as carboxyoctylphenol polyethoxylates (COPEO(n), n = 2, 3) and carboxyoctylphenol polyethoxycarboxylates (COPEC(n), n = 2, 3) began at the log stage, while octylphenol polyethoxycarboxylates (OPEC(n), n = 1-3) was formed at the stationary phase. All the short-ethoxylated metabolites, OPEO(n), OPEC(n), COPEO(n), and COPEC(n), accumulated when the cells were in the stationary phase. This study is the first to demonstrate the formation of COPEO(n) and COPEC(n) from OPEO(n) by an aerobic bacterium. Copyright 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. World energy projection system: Model documentation

    Science.gov (United States)

    1992-06-01

    The World Energy Project System (WEPS) is an accounting framework that incorporates projects from independently documented models and assumptions about the future energy intensity of economic activity (ratios of total energy consumption divided by gross domestic product) and about the rate of incremental energy requirements met by hydropower, geothermal, coal, and natural gas to produce projections of world energy consumption published annually by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) in the International Energy Outlook (IEO). Two independently documented models presented in Figure 1, the Oil Market Simulation (OMS) model and the World Integrated Nuclear Evaluation System (WINES), provide projections of oil and nuclear power consumption published in the IEO. Output from a third independently documented model, and the International Coal Trade Model (ICTM), is not published in the IEO but is used in WEPS as a supply check on projections of world coal consumption produced by WEPS and published in the IEO. A WEPS model of natural gas production documented in this report provides the same type of implicit supply check on the WEPS projections of world natural gas consumption published in the IEO. Two additional models are included in Figure 1, the OPEC Capacity model and the Non-OPEC Oil Production model. These WEPS models provide inputs to the OMS model and are documented in this report.

  16. Outcome of children older than one year with neuroblastoma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fayea, Najwa Y; Atra, Ayad A; Khattab, Taha; Elimam, Najla A; Felimban, Sami; Yousef, Abdelmoutaleb; Basheer, Ahmed; Zayed, Abdullah; Baothman, Abdullah; Al-Sheikh, Nada; Hussen, Wafa

    2008-01-01

    To assess the outcome of children older than one year with neuroblastoma treated at King Abdul-Aziz Medical City, Jeddah, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. We retrospectively reviewed the files of 52 children older than one year with neuroblastoma (NBL) treated at our center between September 1987 and May 2003. Treatment consisted of OPEC chemotherapy regimen (vincristine, cisplatin, etoposide, and cyclophosphamide) or alternating OPEC/OJEC (carboplatin in place of cisplatin), surgical resection +/- radiotherapy (RT). No patient received high dose therapy (HDT). Thirty-four patients (65%) were stage 4, 12 (23%) stage 3, and 6 (11%) stage 2. Three stage 2 patients were treated with surgery only, all are alive in complete remission (CR). All stage 3 and 4 patients were treated with chemotherapy and surgery +/- RT. After induction chemotherapy, CR was achieved in 17 patients (32%) and partial remission in 10 (19%). Complete surgical resection was possible in 11 patients (22%). Disease recurrence or progression occurred in 27 patients (51%). With a median follow-up of 24 months (range 4-120), the 2-year event free survival was 10%, 82%, and 87% and the overall survival was 12%, 83%, and 100% for stage 4, 3, and 2. Children older than one year with localized NBL have good prognosis compared to those with stage 4. The use of HDT may improve the outcome in the latter group. Toxicity was significant, and adoption of risk-stratified treatment may help to reduce treatment complications.

  17. Mass spectrometric behaviour of carboxylated polyethylene glycols and carboxylated octylphenol ethoxylates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frańska, Magdalena; Zgoła, Agnieszka; Rychłowska, Joanna; Szymański, Andrzej; Łukaszewski, Zenon; Frański, Rafał

    2003-01-01

    Mass spectrometric behaviour of mono- and di-carboxylated polyethylene glycols (PEGCs and CPEGCs) and carboxylated octylphenol ethoxylates (OPECs) are discussed. The tendency for ionisation (deprotonation, protonation and cationisation by alkali metal cations) of carboxylated PEGs was compared with that of non-carboxylated correspondents by using both secondary ion mass spectrometry (SIMS) and electrospray ionisation (ESI). The fragmentation of the PEGCs and CPEGCs is discussed and also compared with their neutral correspondents, PEGs. The B/E mass spectra were recorded, using secondary ion mass spectrometry as a method for generation, for deprotonated and protonated molecules and molecules cationised by alkali metal cations. The fragmentation behaviour of PEGs is found to be different from that of CPEGCs, The presence of carboxylic groups may be confirmed not only by the determination of molecular weights of the ethoxylates studied, but also on the basis of the fragment ions formed. The metastable decomposition of the [OPEC-H](-) ions proceed through the cleavage of the bond between the octylphenol moiety and the ethoxylene chain leading to the octylphenoxy anions. It permits determination of the mass of the hydrophobic moiety of the studied carboxylated alkylphenol ethoxylate. ESI mass spectra recorded in the negative ion mode were found to be more suitable for the determination of the average molecular weight of carboxylated ethoxylates than SI mass spectra.

  18. Global outlook of nuclear power in the LDC's in the 1980's

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Malu wa Kalenga

    1981-01-01

    A programme is outlined which is sufficiently complex and capital intensive to warrant or to necessitate an international effort combining the resources and expertise of organizations such as the IAEA, the World Bank, OECD, OPEC fund, national organizations and firms, in order to tackle simultaneously: 1) the problem of education and manpower development, which is the main task of IAEA; 2) building a stronger international commitment to international financing of third world nuclear programmes, which will be the main task of World Bank, OECD, OPEC special funds; 3) devising buildings and testing the prototype of a small nuclear power reactor. This has to be done in a developed nation so that prospective buyers can see one in operation. To oversome the technical constraint related to such a project it will be necessary to help organize an international consortium which will first determine with the help of the IAEA the potential market for small reactor in the 200-400 MWe range, then select the best design and finally carry out the building and testing of the prototype. 4) to create and manage an international fuel bank in order to relieve developing countries of the considerable concerns about quaranted sources of supply. (author)

  19. Trends in exploration and exploration equipment for uranium

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Raitz, C.H.

    1976-01-01

    Uranium exploration once again is in a ''boom'' cycle. The energy needs of the OPEC and non-OPEC countries alike have created a demand for uranium which appears certain to increase in future years. In turn, this demand has stimulated a dramatic rise in both the price of uranium and the exploration activity necessary to discover new reserves. One immediate reaction to the sudden increase in uranium exploration activity has been the evaluation of old exploration methods and equipment. This paper briefly reviews some of the traditional equipment and techniques which currently are being refined and updated. Undoubtedly this equipment, complemented with good exploration planning and judgment, will continue to be relied upon for many years and will lead to the discovery of many new deposits. The paper also covers in greater detail some of the newer, less conventional techniques and equipment now being introduced for uranium exploration. These new methods may be expected to keep this country in the forefront among the uranium producers of the world

  20. Oil markets and prices: the Brent market and the formation of world oil prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Horsnell, Paul; Mabro, Robert.

    1993-01-01

    The purpose of this book is to enhance our understanding of the complex working of the world petroleum market and of the formation of oil prices in international trade. It devotes particular attention to the Brent market which involves spot, physical forward and futures trading of a blend of North Sea crudes known as Brent which has become one of the most important markers for world oil prices. Because the Brent market is central the research presented here examines its relationship to the constellation of other oil markets: those which deal on a spot basis with the main export crude of Africa, the Gulf, the Far East and the North Sea, the market for Dubai, another marker crude, and that for West Texas Intermediate (WTI). Finally an analysis of pricing mechanisms used by OPEC and many non-OPEC exporting countries for their oil sales under term contracts and which use Brent prices as one of their references complete this study on oil markets and prices. (author)

  1. Ecuador still grappling over privatization as oil flow rises

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1993-01-01

    Ecuador continues to grapple with efforts to privatize its petroleum sector a year after disclosing its plans to withdraw from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. One of OPEC's smallest members, Ecuador last year said it would leave the group in March 1993, citing high membership costs and minimal benefits. Industry observers also noted at the time Ecuador's plans to sharply boost production this century might run afoul of its OPEC quota. Political controversy is stalling efforts to implement a new reform oriented hydrocarbon law in Ecuador that would open the country's petroleum sector to greater participation by foreign companies and privatize state petroleum companies, including Petroleos del Ecuador (Petroecuador). That comes even as foreign contractors' participation in Ecuador's upstream sector are making a significant contribution to boosting the country's oil production, which had remained flat for a number of years. The paper discusses the status of the new law, the controversy surrounding reforms, the master plan, environmental concerns, reserves and production, Petroecuador activity, planned pipeline work, service contracts, start-up of Oxy, details of Oxy development, and Elf's start-up

  2. International questions. 2, petroleum: worldwide order or confusion; Questions internationales. 2, le petrole: ordre ou desordre mondial

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2003-07-01

    The sensibility of the world economy with respect to petroleum prices remains and will remain high. The supply and demand problems leads to necessarily consider the production capacities, the effective and potential reserves, the level of strategic stockpiles, the general economical perspectives and their implications on the oil and gas demand. The regulating power of the OPEC and its relations with non-OPEC producers (Russia, Mexico, Norway..) will play a more and more significant role in the world petroleum equilibrium. This book analyses 7 topics about petroleum and geopolitics: the petroleum and the international relations since 1945 (H. L'Huillier); the petroleum in the world economy (J.M. Chevalier); the USA and petroleum: from Rockefeller to the Gulf war (P. Noel); petroleum profits, geopolitics and conflicts (P. Copinschi); reasonable supply costs but fluctuating prices (J.P. Favennec, S. Raki-Rechignac); from the Caspian sea to the Arabo-Persian gulf: a new Russia-USA petro-strategy (F. Encel); the international transportation of petroleum and natural gas: a major economical stake (J. Percebois). (J.S.)

  3. Forecasting world natural gas supply

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Al-Fattah, S. M.; Startzman, R. A.

    2000-01-01

    Using the multi-cyclic Hubert approach, a 53 country-specific gas supply model was developed which enables production forecasts for virtually all of the world's gas. Supply models for some organizations such as OPEC, non-OPEC and OECD were also developed and analyzed. Results of the modeling study indicate that the world's supply of natural gas will peak in 2014, followed by an annual decline at the rate of one per cent per year. North American gas production is reported to be currently at its peak with 29 Tcf/yr; Western Europe will reach its peak supply in 2002 with 12 Tcf. According to this forecast the main sources of natural gas supply in the future will be the countries of the former Soviet Union and the Middle East. Between them, they possess about 62 per cent of the world's ultimate recoverable natural gas (4,880 Tcf). It should be noted that these estimates do not include unconventional gas resulting from tight gas reservoirs, coalbed methane, gas shales and gas hydrates. These unconventional sources will undoubtedly play an important role in the gas supply in countries such as the United States and Canada. 18 refs., 2 tabs., 18 figs

  4. Institutional arrangements for the reduction of proliferation risks formulation, evaluation, and implementation of institutional concepts. Appendices

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1979-12-01

    The purpose of this supporting analysis is to provide a foundation for developing a model, an international or multinational institution capable of accomodating the back end of the fuel cycle, while meeting US nonproliferation goals. The analysis is based on a review of selected, defunct and extant institutions which, although not necessarily concerned with nonproliferation, have faced a trade-off between acceptability and effectiveness in meeting their objectives. Discussion of the various institutions is divided into three categories: international organizations, multinational consortia, and cartels or producer associations. Examples of international organizations include the International Seabed Authority, Intelsat, the United Nations and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). The International Seabed Authority is discussed. Multinational consortia are organizations that have been developed primarily to meet common commercial objectives. Membership includes at least three member nations. Examples include the Scandinavian Airline System (SAS), URENCO, Unilever, Royal Dutch Shell, Eurochemic, Eurodif, Euratom, European Coal and Steel Community, and Serena. Cartels or producer associations are multinational agreements that restrict market forces; viz, production, market share, customers or prices. Examples include the Intergovernmental Council of Copper Exporting Countries (CIPEC), the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), and the Fifth International Tin Agreement (ITA), as well as agreements governing diamonds and uranium, bauxite and coffee. OPEC, CIPEC and ITA are discussed.

  5. Asian oil demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fesharaki, F.

    2005-01-01

    This conference presentation examined global oil market development and the role of Asian demand. It discussed plateau change versus cyclical movement in the global oil market; supply and demand issues of OPEC and non-OPEC oil; if high oil prices reduce demand; and the Asian oil picture in the global context. Asian oil demand has accounted for about 50 per cent of the global incremental oil market growth. The presentation provided data charts in graphical format on global and Asia-Pacific incremental oil demand from 1990-2005; Asia oil demand growth for selected nations; real GDP growth in selected Asian countries; and, Asia-Pacific oil production and net import requirements. It also included charts in petroleum product demand for Asia-Pacific, China, India, Japan, and South Korea. Other data charts included key indicators for China's petroleum sector; China crude production and net oil import requirements; China's imports and the share of the Middle East; China's oil exports and imports; China's crude imports by source for 2004; China's imports of main oil products for 2004; India's refining capacity; India's product balance for net-imports and net-exports; and India's trade pattern of oil products. tabs., figs

  6. World energy projection system: Model documentation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1992-06-01

    The World Energy Project System (WEPS) is an accounting framework that incorporates projects from independently documented models and assumptions about the future energy intensity of economic activity (ratios of total energy consumption divided by gross domestic product) and about the rate of incremental energy requirements met by hydropower, geothermal, coal, and natural gas to produce projections of world energy consumption published annually by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) in the International Energy Outlook (IEO) (Figure 1). Two independently documented models presented in Figure 1, the Oil Market Simulation (OMS) model and the World Integrated Nuclear Evaluation System (WINES) provide projections of oil and nuclear power consumption published in the IEO. Output from a third independently documented model, and the International Coal Trade Model (ICTM), is not published in the IEO but is used in WEPS as a supply check on projections of world coal consumption produced by WEPS and published in the IEO. A WEPS model of natural gas production documented in this report provides the same type of implicit supply check on the WEPS projections of world natural gas consumption published in the IEO. Two additional models are included in Figure 1, the OPEC Capacity model and the Non-OPEC Oil Production model. These WEPS models provide inputs to the OMS model and are documented in this report

  7. International energy workshop: overview of poll responses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Manne, A.S.; Schrattenholzer, L.; Minkoff, T.F.

    1987-01-01

    The International Energy Workshop is an informally organized group. Its general aim is to compare the most up-to-date long-term energy projections available throughout the world, and to obtain a better understanding of the reasons for their differences. The current edition of the IEW poll supersedes all previous ones, and contains only those poll responses bearing publication dates of 1984-1986. Altogether, this edition of the poll contains 192 individual responses received from 71 participating organizations. The poll covers the period 1980-2010. Appendix I contains frequency distributions for each of the eight standard IEW regions: (1) USSR and Eastern Europe, (2) China, (3) Centrally Planned Economies, Subtotal, (4) OECD, (5) OPEC, (6) Non-OPEC Developing Countries, (7) Market Economies, Subtotal, and (8) World, Total. In addition, frequency distributions are provided for four individual countries/regions: Canada, Japan, OECD Europe, and USA. Poll items 3-16 refer to individual fuel types: oil, gas, coal, hydroelectric, nuclear, solar and other renewables. To ensure international comparability, these are expressed in terms of commercial primary energy consumption, production and net trade (exports minus imports). (Author)

  8. Peace, petroleum and economic development in the Middle East

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1995-01-01

    The first obstacle which is still on the way to lead to a durable peace is the issue of negotiations between Israel and Syria and Lebanon, but it is only a question of time. Arab and Israeli people make relations in all kind of areas: industry, agriculture, finances, tourism, trade. Hope of economic development were well illustrated by big projects such roads and trains networks, interconnection of electric networks. An important challenge to realize these works is to collect the money which is necessary to their realization; the project of a bank for the development in the middle east, helped by Usa, is not welcome for arab countries of the Gulf. They think a new bank is not necessary but in reality they are afraid that the loans give profits only to Israeli people. In the same time, it does not seem possible to increase the petroleum prices when Opec and non Opec countries disagree and Usa and industrialized countries are not disposed to pay more for their energy; finally if the peace is necessary to allow an economic development in this area, it is not sufficient to solve the poverty problem, frustrations and social tensions, which are now the principle menaces in this area for the policy stability

  9. A time-series analysis of the crude oil spot and futures markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Quan Jing.

    1990-01-01

    First, the existence of the relationship is tested. Second, after the relationship is established, it is tested to determine the direction of causality. Most of previous research on this issue ignored the first step, and the existence of the relationship was taken for granted. Unfortunately, however, this assumption is not justified since it does not necessarily hold. The first relationship investigated in this study is between the crude oil spot and futures prices. It is found that spot price leads futures prices instead of the futures price providing information on the spot price. Two additional relationships studied are those between the OPEC oil supply and the futures prices and that between the same supply and spot prices. In the case of OPEC supply and spot prices, a self-adaptive model with supply interruption dummy variables is introduced to study the price behavior. It is found that prices follow an adaptive process, that is, the previous price information offers powerful influence on the current price

  10. Planning Oil Prices In The World Market And Preventive Policies In Energy Sector Of Iran

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Raees Dana, Fariborz

    1999-01-01

    The planning of oil prices in the world can not be analyzed by means of the market-competition theory or the game theory. The current prices seem to be influenced greatly by large energy consuming industries of developed countries, oil producing corporations and cartels, and oil productions outside of OPEC. There is a lack of necessary long term policies and planning so that drastic changes in market prices can be avoided. The goal of this paper is to suggest new policies by means of discussing in following issues: 1.Initiating some form of a financial support for OPEC with the necessary follow up. 2. Utilization of oil income in sectors organized to have the least susceptibility against income loss and the lowest impact on other sectors. 3. Reducing of oil production level in the local and global framework and starting in industrialization process. 4. Replacement of oil with natural gas at a faster rate. 5. improving the oil industry infrastructure for lowering production costs and increasing variety in products in light of country economic policies and occupational strategies. 6. Imposing self-reliance on development of oil-production technology

  11. Country analysis briefs: 1994. Profiles of major world energy producers, consumers, and transport centers

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1995-05-01

    Country Analysis Briefs: 1994 is a compilation of country profiles prepared by the Energy Markets and Contingency Information Division (EMCID) of the Office of Energy Markets and End Use. EMCID maintains Country Analysis Briefs (CABs) for specific countries or geographical areas that are important to world energy markets. As a general rule, CABs are prepared for all members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), major non-OPEC oil producers (i.e., the North Sea, Russia), major energy transit areas (i.e., Ukraine), and other areas of current interest to energy analysts and policy makers. As of January 1995, EMCID maintained over 40 CABs, updated on an annual schedule and subject to revision as events warrant. This report includes 25 CABs updated during 1994. All CABs contain a profile section, a map showing the country`s location, and a narrative section. The profile section includes outlines of the country`s economy, energy sector, and environment. The narrative provides further information and discussion of these topics. Some CABs also include a detailed map displaying locations of major oil and gas fields, pipelines, ports, etc. These maps were created as a result of special individual requests and so are not typically a standard feature of the CABs. They are presented here wherever available as a supplement to the information contained in the CABs.

  12. OIL AS POLITICAL WEAPON

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mariana, BUICAN

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Oil (called by some black gold has not always been as coveted and used, but only in the last hundred years has established itself as a highly sought after as an indispensable proper functioning of modern economic activity that an important factor in international politics. International oil regime has changed in the last decades. In 1960, oil regime was a private oligopol which had links with governments main consuming countries. By then the price of a barrel of oil was two U.S. dollars and seven major transnational oil companies decided the amount of oil that will be produced. Meanwhile the world region with the largest oil exports were more strongly expressed nationalism and decolonization. Result, it was so in the late 60s in the region occur independent states. They have created an organization aim of this resource to their advantage - OPEC (Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. Thus since 1973 there have been changes in the international regime governing oil field, namely producing countries were fixed production rate and price. After this time the oil weapon has become increasingly important in the management of international relations. Oil influenced the great powers to Middle East conflicts that occurred in the last century, but their attitude about the emergence of new sources of oil outside OPEC. In the late 90's, Russia has become a major supplier of oil to the West.

  13. Crude oil prices: Speculation versus fundamentals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kolodziej, Marek Krzysztof

    Beginning in 2004, the price of crude oil fluctuates rapidly over a wide range. Large and rapid price increases have recessionary consequences and dampen long-term infrastructural investment. I investigate whether price changes are driven by market fundamentals or speculation. With regard to market fundamentals, I revisit econometric evidence for the importance of demand shocks, as proxied by dry maritime cargo rates, on oil prices. When I eliminate transportation costs from both sides of the equation, disaggregate OPEC and non-OPEC production, and allow for more than one cointegrating relation, I find that previous specifications are inconsistent with arguments that demand shocks play an important role. Instead, results confirm the importance of OPEC supply shocks. I investigate two channels by which speculation may affect oil prices; the direct effect of trader behavior and changes in oil from a commodity to a financial asset. With regard to trader behavior, I find evidence that trader positions are required to explain the spread between spot and futures prices of crude oil on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The inclusion of trader positions clarifies the process of equilibrium error correction, such that there is bidirectional causality between prices and trader positions. This creates the possibility of speculative bubbles. With regard to oil as a commodity and/or financial asset, I use a Kalman Filter model to estimate the time-varying partial correlation between returns to investments in equity and oil markets. This correlation changes from negative to positive at the onset of the 2008 financial crisis. The low interest rates used to rescue the economy depress convenience yields, which reduces the benefits of holding oil as a commodity. Instead, oil becomes a financial asset (on net) as the oil market changed from contango to backwardation. Contradicting simple political narratives, my research suggests that both market fundamentals and speculation drive

  14. Crude oil prices : how high, how much harm?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Levesque, M.; Alexander, C.

    2002-01-01

    This paper discussed the issue of crude oil prices and the economy. Crude oil prices are on the rise due to the recent events in the Middle East. In early April, West Texas Intermediate crude oil climbed to nearly US$28 a barrel. Most of the increase reflects the expectation of stronger world oil demand combined with supply constraints on the part of OPEC. Although there has been some concern expressed that rising oil prices may hinder economic recovery, the authors of this report do not see evidence that rising oil prices would throw economic recovery off course, arguing that the current spike will be short-lived. They stated that even under a worse-case scenario where prices remain inflated, there is little reason to fear for the health of the Canadian economy. OPEC is expected to increase its low production quotas in June. In addition, non-OPEC nations (Russia in particular) are expected to increase oil production in the coming months. The authors also indicated that it is unlikely that conflict in the West Bank will disrupt oil supply because Israel is not an oil-exporting nation. However, oil supply could be affected if other Arab nations were drawn into the issue. It was also noted that military action against Iraq would increase oil prices, possibly as high as US$40 a barrel, but the full extent of this hike in price will probably be unsustainable. In addition, the authors emphasized that the increase in energy costs would not be enough to seriously jeopardize the economic recovery in the United States. As for Canada, it is estimated that a US$10 per barrel increase in crude oil prices would have a small, but positive impact on Canadian GDP because in contrast to the United States, Canada produces much more energy than it consumers. In 2001, Canada ran a trade surplus of $2.8 billion. The report ended by stating that although higher oil prices could add a full percentage point to headline inflation by the end of the year, core inflation is likely to remain

  15. The strategic and economic value of exploiting heavy crude

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saniere, A.

    2003-01-01

    Non-conventional oil, and particularly heavy crude varieties, will play an increasingly important role in meeting growing global energy requirements by 2030 and beyond. These heavy oils currently account for high volumes in certain areas but their proportion of global oil production remains modest for the moment, This should significantly change with the completion of several projects currently underway in Canada and Venezuela. Indeed, the technological innovations occurring over recent years have allowed for a considerable reduction in exploitation costs for these crude varieties and improved economic profitability conditions for the projects. The geographical location of resources (which are independent of the Middle East) and the fact that they are not subject to OPEC quotas also make these crude varieties particularly attractive. (authors)

  16. DETERMINANTS OF SOVEREIGN RATING: FACTOR BASED ORDERED PROBIT MODELS FOR PANEL DATA ANALYSIS MODELING FRAMEWORK

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dilek Teker

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this research is to compose a new rating methodology and provide credit notches to 23 countries which of 13 are developed and 10 are emerging. There are various literature that explains the determinants of credit ratings. Following the literature, we select 11 variables for our model which of 5 are eliminated by the factor analysis. We use specific dummies to investigate the structural breaks in time and cross section such as pre crises, post crises, BRIC membership, EU membership, OPEC membership, shipbuilder country and platinum reserved country. Then we run an ordered probit model and give credit notches to the countries. We use FITCH ratings as benchmark. Thus, at the end we compare the notches of FITCH with the ones we derive out of our estimated model.

  17. Oil. The revenge of shales

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dupin, Ludovic

    2017-01-01

    This article comments the evolutions noticed during these past years as the USA started to exploit non conventional hydrocarbons (shale gas and oil), and thus reduced their supplies from the Middle East. In reaction, OPEC members provoked a massive oil price decrease. If shale oil exploitation in the USA has slowed down for a while, it starts again: the number of platforms and production are increasing. Moreover, the profitability threshold is strongly decreasing. Argentina and China are also developing this sector, and Great-Britain and South-Africa are about to start projects. The article outlines that, even though France decided not to exploit shale gas and oil, French industries are present on this market and technology. In an interview, a representative of the French sector of non conventional hydrocarbons comments these evolutions as well as the French decision and its possible evolutions

  18. Measuring energy security. Can the United States achieve oil independence?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Greene, David L.

    2010-01-01

    Stochastic simulation of the direct economic costs of oil dependence in an uncertain future is proposed as a useful metric of oil dependence. The market failure from which these costs arise is imperfect competition in the world oil market, chiefly as a consequence of the use of market power by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) cartel. Oil dependence costs can be substantial. It is estimated that oil dependence costs to the US economy in 2008 will exceed $500 billion. Other costs, such as military expenditures or foreign policy constraints are deemed to be largely derivative of the actual or potential economic costs of oil dependence. The use of quantifiable economic costs as a security metric leads to a measurable definition of oil independence, or oil security, which can be used to test the ability of specific policies to achieve oil independence in an uncertain future. (author)

  19. Simulating an oil shock with sticky prices. [Monograph

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Giavazzi, F; Odekon, M; Wyplosz, C

    1981-01-01

    The authors extend recent work by J. Sachs on the response of a two-country-plus-OPEC neo-classical model to an oil shock with full inter-temporal optimization and perfect foresight. The role of imperfectly flexible prices is studied under the assumption that firms are constrained in output. The presence of expected inflation is shown to be pervasive. It affects the real interest-rate term structure and the valuation of all components of wealth, as well as the exchange rate and the attending distribution of world expenditures. Inflation also enters the wage-adjustment mechanism and, therefore, the path of unemployment and capital accumulation. 23 references, 3 figures, 7 tables.

  20. European energy policy and Italian national rights

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gentile, G.G.

    1991-01-01

    In light of energy market upheavals expected as a result of the up-coming European free trade market, impacts on existing Italian energy legislation, currently hinging on the monopolistic activities of ENEL, (Italian National Electricity Board) are examined. The various aspects dealt with include: legal implications of the integration, under monopolistic and deregulated national energy market scenarios, of new legislation, on the production and distribution of renewable energy sources, with existing energy legislation; the combined effects of strong competition in a new international energy market and energy supply vulnerability due strong dependence on OPEC supplied petroleum; Italian regional economic unbalance due to the possible introduction, in a deregulated European electric power market, of a common carrier system of electric power distribution, that due to Italy's particular geography is expected to be controlled by a firm locatednear the northern border; power pooling legislation and rate structure transparency in a deregulated energy market

  1. Key figures. Year 2006; Chiffres cles. Annee 2006

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2006-07-01

    This document summarizes in a series of tables the key data of the petroleum industry and of the other energies for the year 2006. Data of the two previous years are given for comparison: 1 - petroleum, France: exploration, reserves, production, transports (tankers, pipelines, crude and refined products), storage capacities, status of resources and uses, foreign trade (imports, prices, exports), refining (capacities, facilities), evolution of supplies, automotive fuels consumption; 2 - energies, France: production, consumption and trade data for coal, natural gas, electricity; total production and consumption of primary energy; consumption per sector of use; 3 - petroleum, world: crude production and reserves per geographical area, OPEC production, imports/exports and refining/consumption per geographical area, international quotation for crudes and refined products; 4 - energies, world: reserves, production and consumption data for coal, natural gas and electricity; uranium production and resources; total primary energy production and consumption per energy source and geographical area. (J.S.)

  2. Key figures. Year 2005; Chiffres cles. Annee 2005

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2005-07-01

    This document summarizes in a series of tables the key data of the petroleum industry and of the other energies for the year 2005. Data of the two previous years are given for comparison: 1 - petroleum, France: exploration, reserves, production, transports (tankers, pipelines, crude and refined products), storage capacities, status of resources and uses, foreign trade (imports, prices, exports), refining (capacities, facilities), evolution of supplies, automotive fuels consumption; 2 - energies, France: production, consumption and trade data for coal, natural gas, electricity; total production and consumption of primary energy; consumption per sector of use; 3 - petroleum, world: crude production and reserves per geographical area, OPEC production, imports/exports and refining/consumption per geographical area, international quotation for crudes and refined products; 4 - energies, world: reserves, production and consumption data for coal, natural gas and electricity; uranium production and resources; total primary energy production and consumption per energy source and geographical area. (J.S.)

  3. Petroleum and gas economy in Arab Countries, in Angola, Congo and Nigeria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1993-01-01

    This paper gives informations on petroleum and natural gas industry, petroleum market and prices, trade and contracts, exploration and production. In OPEC countries, petroleum production has increased of 1% at a level of 24.77 millions barrels per day. Petroleum exploration or oil field development are going on at Ras al Khaima and Oum al Qaiwain (Arab Union Emirates), Gachsaran and Parsi (Iran) and Masilia (Yemen). In Tunisia, Union Texas Petroleum (Houston) has obtained a license for the exploration of Ramla oil field. In 1993, for the first, world wide petroleum demand will be reduce of 150000 barrels per day since 1983. In Congo, Sofresid Petrole Gaz has obtained a contract for the building of the bridge of two offshore platforms on N'Kossa oil field. In Nigeria, Offshore Pipelines Inc. (Houston) will build offshore structures for North Apoi and Okubie oil fields

  4. The prospects for a new international petroleum order

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Finon, D.

    1991-01-01

    With OPEC no longer dominating the world oil scene and the ideology of the north-south confrontation having been eroded, a new international oil order is emerging. Although its character is not yet well-defined, it rests basically on mutual understanding that cooperation is possible. The most striking manifestations are a renewal of vertical integration, with the return of multinational oil companies to activities in exporting countries, and the new involvement of these countries in downstream activities in the importing countries. The result will be greater medium-term stability. Another more subtle aspect could materialize, that being a regular dialogue between exporting countries, the multinationals, and importing countries, which would encourage a greater degree of common interest and expectations. The institution of such a dialogue depends on the USA and Saudi Arabia, who currently determine the rules which govern the international oil market and who favour bilateralism. 31 refs., 1 tab

  5. Proceedings of the CERI 2005 Oil Conference : What's next? CD-ROM ed.

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2005-01-01

    Recent developments in the international petroleum industry were discussed, including events unfolding in the world such as rising oil prices, world oil demand and booming oil markets. The changes reflect both fundamental and geopolitical issues such as OPEC's potential productive capacity. The presentations addressed whether these developments in the petroleum industry represent a structural shift in the market or if they are merely another cyclical movement. In addition to the outlook for world energy markets and prospects for oil supply and reserves, this conference included discussions about oil price differentials, markets for Canadian oil, geopolitical hotspots for exporting countries, enhanced recovery for conventional resources and an oil sands outlook. The role that non-conventional oil play will play in the current marketplace was also addressed. The conference featured 18 presentations, of which 6 have been indexed separately for inclusion in this database. tabs., figs

  6. Leadership in the oil industry

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Duggan, J

    1988-08-01

    In this brief examination of the changing environment of the oil industry, Mr. Duggan feels that in spite of the weight of tradition and inertia in management, the future is likely to belong to the innovators and risk takers. He mentions the pre-occupation of the world's press with even the smallest fluctuation of crude oil prices - feeling it an outward manifestation of a worrying instability within the industry. Selected OPEC producers further engaging in downstream activities and the USSR embarking upon energy ventures with the West will not help the uncertainty. Mr. Duggan points to some definite sings of change among the larger companies; further, safe, solid respectable performance (e.g., EXXON) is no longer enough to excite the admiration of professionals. Finally, he observes that while the opportunities are there for the innovator with probably great rewards - they are no greater than the sanctions for failure, which could be terminal.

  7. Headings for an EEC common energy policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bailey, R.

    1976-01-01

    Although self-sufficiency in energy supplies during the 1980s may make a purely national UK energy policy look attractive, the author argues that it is in the long-term interest of all nine community members if policy is coordinated on an EEC scale. Any possible common energy policy would probably consist of separate policies for coal, oil, natural gas and nuclear power. It would follow the same general principles as the Common Agricultural Policy in maximising production of coal, natural gas and nuclear power but oil would be covered by negotiating with OPEC for current supplies and treating indigenous supplies as a strategic reserve, with Community finance available for development of marginal fields. (author)

  8. G5..., G6..., G7..., G8..., G?

    OpenAIRE

    Monteiro, António

    2001-01-01

    O G8 tem as suas raízes no primitivo embrião do G5 quando, em 1973, o então Secretário de Estado do Tesouro americano, George Schultz, convocou os Ministros das Finanças da França, Japão, Reino Unido e República Federal da Alemanha para uma reunião. O objectivo era analisar como fazer face à primeira crise do petróleo da OPEC e subsequente recessão económica nos países mais industrializados, ao colapso do sistema monetário das taxas de câmbio de paridades fixas de Bretton-Woods e ao alargamen...

  9. Worldwide outlook clouded by market slump of late 1993

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beck, R.J.

    1994-01-01

    Excess production and production capacity reasserted their influence in worldwide petroleum markets last year, pushing crude oil prices to their lowest levels since before the Persian Gulf crisis. The development ended the relative price stability that has characterized the period since the crisis ended in January 1991. One of the major questions now being asked is whether there has been a downward shift in the seasonal range of crude prices. In the near future, OPEC's degree of success in balancing the market will be a key to prices. Another is politics in the Middle East. If it were not for a United Nations embargo, the market would have another 2--3 million b/d of oil supply--from Iraq. The paper discusses worldwide demand, economic trends, the supply in 1993, the supply outlook, prices, and international drilling activities

  10. The Russian oil

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rucker, Laurent

    2003-01-01

    This article proposes a brief discussion of various assessments of Russian oil reserves, of the evolutions of Russian oil production (Russia is the second world producer after Saudi Arabia), of the distribution of Russian oil exports among various regions, and of the decrease of Russian oil consumption between 1992 and 2002. It describes the evolution of the actor system as the oil sector has been largely privatised since 1992, and indicates the main companies which should control the Russia market on a medium term. It also discusses the obstacles for the development of Production Sharing Agreements (PSA) between these companies. It addresses the issue of modernisation of the oil transport system as its status and its condition are often an obstacle to oil export for Russian companies. The article finally discusses the price issue, the relationship between Russia and other OPEC countries, and the need for huge investments

  11. Panorama 2014 - Oil situation in 2013 and trends

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maisonnier, Guy

    2013-12-01

    The average price of Brent in 2013 was $108/barrel (bbl) (WTI was around $98), slightly below the 2011 and 2012 averages ($111/bbl). The tensions with Iran in the early part of the year, then in Egypt and in Syria during the summer, drove Brent towards $120/bbl. The pressure on prices also reflected the drop in supply in certain OPEC countries, particularly Libya, but also in Iran because of the oil embargo that was implemented in July 2012. The increase in the US production of shale oil certainly prevented a stronger market reaction. This is an important issue over the medium-term, which is likely, together with the possible lifting of the embargo on Iran, to favour a significant easing in the price of oil... nevertheless according to the geopolitical context. (author)

  12. Supply and demand in the oil industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Favennec, J.P.

    2000-01-01

    The year 1998 was characterised a lower level of demand for energy in general and in articular for oil due to the Asian crisis. Within such a context; efforts at reducing production were not sufficient to prevent prices falling to their lowest levels since the first oil crisis. In 1999, we saw a complete reversal of this trend, with consumption back on a growth path and the new cuts in production agreed by OPEC being firmly implemented. These two factors have led to sustained increases in the price of oil, which, at the end of 1999, reached levels considered very high. Future prices will depend upon the durable nature of economic upturn and above all on continued discipline among the producer nations. (authors)

  13. Using non-time-series to determine supply elasticity: how far do prices change the Hubbert curve?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reynolds, D.B.

    2002-01-01

    An important concern of OPEC's work is to be able to understand how much supply of oil exists in different countries, in order to help better conserve oil. This paper extends M. King Hubbert's oil production and discovery forecasting model (Hubbert, 1962), using a non-time-series cumulative discovery and production quadratic Hubbert curve and structural shift variables to model technology and regulation changes. The model can be used to determine better world oil supplies. Price is tested, to see how powerful it is for increasing or decreasing oil supply. Using a trend of cumulative production, instead of time, will help to better fix the supply elasticity with respect to price, which is shown to be very inelastic. An interesting question is whether cumulative discovery or production constitutes an I(2) variable. This paper explains that they are not I(2) variables. (Author)

  14. International oil and natural gas demand projections: an econometric model for 2008-2030; Projecao das demandas mundiais de petroleo e de gas natural: aplicacao de um modelo agregado para o periodo 2008-2030

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Machado, Giovani; Aragao, Amanda; Valle, Ricardo Nascimento e Silva do [Empresa de Pesquisa Energetica (EPE), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

    2008-07-01

    This study forecasts the world oil and gas demands for 2008-2030 by applying econometric formulations. The basic variables are world GDP and Brent price. The forecast assumptions are: sound world economic growth remains, despite falling rates during the period; Brent prices continue high, but in a lower level, in 2006 constant prices, in harmony with Energy Information Administration reference scenario. Findings show that, should assumptions prove to be correct, world oil and gas demands will reach 118 million bbl/d and 5 trillion cubic meters in 2030, respectively. In other words, world oil demand will grow at 1.4% per year, while world gas demand will increase at 2.5% per year. Although such figures are similar to those from other institutions (EIA, IEA and OPEC), structural changes in oil and gas markets, catalyzed by high oil prices and energy and environmental policies, may reduce forecast strength of the specifications proposed. (author)

  15. Country profile: Syria

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1985-06-01

    A relatively minor oil exporter on Middle Eastern terms, Syria is a member of OPEC and one of the first Arab states to take control of its hydrocarbon resources from foreign domination. After a period of decline, a major discovery is opening new perspectives of Syria's future. The author describes Syria's history since it emerged from the Ottoman Empire and a period of French domination into a period of industrialization and economic development. Oil is the largest single item in the balance of payments and the leading provider of revenues for investment by the government. Since the first discoveries in the 1950s, a number of fields have become productive. The configuration of refineries makes it necessary to export crude oil and import light crude from the new discoveries, making crude oil and petroleum products the largest negative items on the balance of payments. 1 figure.

  16. Arab oil and gas directory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2005-01-01

    This reference book is the only oil and gas encyclopedia in the world providing detailed country surveys on the oil and gas industry in the Arab countries and Iran. It provides thorough country reports and detailed statistics on oil and gas exploration, production, transport, refining and petrochemicals, as well as on development projects in all countries in the Middle East and North Africa: Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Sudan, Syria, Tunisia, United Arab Emirates and Yemen. Separate chapters cover OPEC and OAPEC, as well as world oil and gas statistics. It includes 53 maps and 268 tables and graphs, and 2420 addresses and contact names

  17. Financial market pressure, tacit collusion and oil price formation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aune, Finn Roar; Rosendahl, Knut Einar; Mohn, Klaus; Osmundsen, Petter

    2010-01-01

    We explore a hypothesis that a change in investment behaviour among international oil companies (IOC) towards the end of the 1990s had long-lived effects on OPEC strategies, and on oil price formation. Coordinated investment constraints were imposed on the IOCs through financial market pressures for improved short-term profitability in the wake of the Asian economic crisis. A partial equilibrium model for the global oil market is applied to compare the effects of these tacitly collusive capital constraints on oil supply with an alternative characterised by industrial stability. Our results suggest that even temporary economic and financial shocks may have a long-term impact on oil price formation. (author)

  18. The world oil market after the Iraq-Kuwait crisis: Economic and politicoeconomic considerations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wirl, F.

    1994-01-01

    The recent crisis in the Gulf (Iraq's temporary annexation of Kuwait) will presumably inflict enormous damage on future oil markets on both sides, consumers and producers. Consumers will be aware of the potential insecurity of the oil supply from the Arab-Persian Gulf, ironically, at a time when OPEC members (others than Iraq and Kuwait) stood up to their commitment. The reason for this lack of confidence is that political objectives may dominate conventional economic goals so that the future oil market becomes unpredictable and potentially insecure. As a consequence, consumers may conserve even in period of low oil prices so that billions and billions of (opportunity) dollars might be wasted. Vertical integration may be a way to mitigate this insecurity and to increase the credibility of a reliable supply. Presumably the easiest way to regain some of the consumers' confidence seems to be to again offer the international oil companies larger responsibility for the oil market

  19. Vertcal integration: origins of oil industry integration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rainbow, R.

    2001-01-01

    This article examines the structure of the US oil industry in relation to the history of the industry, capital market assumptions, and advice on the enhancement of 'shareholder value'. The driving forces behind the attempts to establish cartels and vertical integration are considered, and the emergence of US companies resulting from the break-up of the Standard Oil Trust cartel, the influence of costs and logistics on the structure of the industry outside the USA , and the structure of the natural gas industry are discussed along with the discovery of large Middle East oil reserves, the enormous growth in demand for oil products in Europe and Japan, and the formation of the OPEC cartel. Details are given of the breaking down of vertical integration in the big oil companies, the theory of conglomerates, the success of big companies, the importance of scale to balance exploration risks, and the need to adjust in time to shifts in the business environment

  20. Coal reserves in the United States and around the world

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jubert, K.; Masudi, H.

    1995-01-01

    There is an urgent need to examine the role that coal might play in meeting world energy needs during the next 20 years. Oil from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) can no longer be relied upon to provide expanding supplies of energy, even with rapidly rising prices. Neither can nuclear energy be planned on for rapid expansion worldwide until present uncertainties about it are resolved. Yet, the world's energy needs will continue to grow, even with vigorous energy conservation programs and with optimistic rates of expansion in the use of solar energy. Coal already supplies 25% of the world's energy, its reserves are vast, and it is relatively inexpensive. This study, with the aid of reports from the World Coal Study (WOCOL) examines the needs for coal on a global scale, its availability past and present, and its future prospects

  1. An Assessment of Energy and Environmental Issues Related to the Use of Gas-to-Liquid Fuels in Transportation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Greene, D.L.

    1999-11-01

    Recent technological advances in processes for converting natural gas into liquid fuels, combined with a growing need for cleaner, low-sulfur distillate fuel to mitigate the environmental impacts of diesel engines have raised the possibility of a substantial global gas-to-liquids (G-T-L) industry. This report examines the implications of G-T-L supply for U.S. energy security and the environment. It appears that a G-T-L industry would increase competitiveness in world liquid fuels markets, even if OPEC states are major producers of G-T-L's. Cleaner G-T-L distillates would help reduce air pollution from diesel engines. Implications for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions could be positive or negative, depending on the sources of natural gas, their alternative uses, and the degree of sequestration that can be achieved for CO2 emissions produced during the conversion process.

  2. An assessment of energy and environmental issues related to the use of gas-to-liquid fuels in transportation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Greene, D.L.

    1999-11-01

    Recent technological advances in processes for converting natural gas into liquid fuels, combined with a growing need for cleaner, low-sulfur distillate fuel to mitigate the environmental impacts of diesel engines have raised the possibility of a substantial global gas-to-liquids (G-T-L) industry. This report examines the implications of G-T-L supply for U.S. energy security and the environment. It appears that a G-T-L industry would increase competitiveness in world liquid fuels markets, even if OPEC states are major producers of G-T-L's. Cleaner G-T-L distillates would help reduce air pollution from diesel engines. Implications for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions could be positive or negative, depending on the sources of natural gas, their alternative uses, and the degree of sequestration that can be achieved for CO{sub 2} emissions produced during the conversion process.

  3. Energy in the world: The present situation and future options

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rogner, H.H.

    1989-01-01

    It is reported that the most notable changes on the world energy scene since 1973 concerned the shift in OPEC's role from a base to a swing producer, the disruption of the fast market penetration of nuclear power and the impacts caused by the technical advances at essentially all stages of the energy system. Further, several parts of the world witnessed a strong environmental movement which attracted public attention to the conduct of the energy industry and its social implications and environmental consequences. The lecture illuminates these events in some detail and evaluate their impacts on present and future energy demand, supply and trade patterns. The future energy outlook includes two fundamentally different scenarios. Each scenario in itself appears internally consistent. The diverging projections of future energy demand and supply mixes underlying these scenarios are the result of the inclusion/omission of technical change or dynamics of technology into the analyses. 19 refs, 22 figs

  4. Progress in reorganization of international oil industry and moves of majors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    (Institute of Energy Economics, Tokyo (Japan))

    1988-10-15

    Of oil majors, Texaco, Chevron and Mobil have become depressed because of the sharp decrease in oil abundance due to the OPEC members' nationalization policy of resources in the first half of 1970's, whereas Exxon and Shell, who have made steady efforts in investment for exploration and development, have grown. BP has made a wide stride by acquisitions. Business acquisitions and mergers are increasing again in oil industries of Europe and U.S. with the dull oil price as the background. A particular feature of this trend is active involvement of western firms in North Sea oil. Oil producing countries are actively penetrating in downstream markets of consuming countries to establish stable selling routes. Whereas two directions are possible for changes in the international petroleum industry, that is, either coordinated action of producing countries and majors or increased competition among them, the age of co-existence and co-prosperity is most probable. 1 figure.

  5. International negotiations on climate change towards a new international deal?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2009-11-01

    This document reports the work performed by the French 'Centre d'Analyse Strategique' until the first of November within the perspective of a new international agreement to struggle against climate change beyond 2012. The basic idea is that such an agreement will have a meaning only if it is signed and ratified by the both main greenhouse gas emitting countries, the United States and China. A first part of this report describes the context and the post-2012 negotiation perspectives, as well as the status of international cooperation in the field of climate change. The two following chapters present syntheses of the climate policies and negotiation postures of China and United States. Then, the authors give an overview of the strategic interests and postures of some other big countries like India, Brazil, Russia, Canada, OPEC countries, and so on. The last part deals with issues of rights of intellectual property applied to the elaboration of 'clean' technologies and to international technological transfers

  6. Panorama 2015 - Oil situation in 2014 and trends

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maisonnier, Guy

    2014-01-01

    The decision by the OPEC producing countries on 27 November 2014 not to intervene in the market heralds a new world order for oil. Saudi Arabia has refused to be practically the only State to moderate its production to support prices. Therefore, against a background of oil surpluses and in the absence of a market watchdog to regulate the supply, the price has to adjust, which explains the 44% fall in Brent between June ($111/bbl) and December ($63/bbl). In 2015, subject to certain assumptions, an equilibrium price of $60 to $80/bbl could be envisaged. This price range should have the effect of mitigating the growth of American tight oil production, though in proportions that remain uncertain. It will also result in reduced investments in the oil sector, raising medium term risks for the supply. (author)

  7. Strategic resources - Europe and the World

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Godement, F.

    2005-01-01

    This document analyzes the geopolitical aspects of the energy security policy of Europe, its vulnerability with respect to other regions of the world with strong economic development and consumption (North America and East Asia), the failures of the European energy policies, and the dangers for Europe of strong changes in the rest of the World: Middle East's geopolitical instabilities, increased consumption of energy and raw materials by emerging economies, general discontinuity for raw material prices, emergence of non-OPEC oil and gas producers, high import dependency ratios from non-OECD countries. Then it analyzes the global energy scarcity hypothesis according to different scenarios: resurgence of geopolitical conflicts around resources, geopolitical spill-over from increased scarcity of resources, or interplay of market forces and business strategy. Finally, it sounds two alarms regarding energy policy: the decline of active energy saving policies across Europe, and the threat of liberalization on energy security policy. (J.S.)

  8. Oil prices remain firm, despite economic slump

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brady, Aaron; Giesecke Linda

    2002-01-01

    Despite all the evidence of sluggish economic growth throughout the world this year, WTI crude oil prices have averaged about $24/bbl year-to-date. Although prices have been lower than year-ago levels, they're a far cry from the lows that occurred in 1998 and at the beginning of 1999. Mounting tensions in the Middle East have given crude prices support. While the market has taken these tensions into account since the beginning of the year, more recent concerns about a possible U.S military conflict with Iraq have added a larger war premium to crude prices. Note that the halt of Iraqi exports itself may not be as detrimental as perceived, since these exports could easily be replaced by OPEC's excess capacity. In part, we have already seen a reduction in Iraqi exports this year due to a pricing dispute

  9. Measuring energy security. A conceptual note

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Frondel, Manuel; Schmidt, Christoph M.

    2008-11-06

    Along with the oil price, concerns about the security of energy supply have soared once again in recent years.Yet, more than 30 years after the OPEC oil embargo in 1973, energy security still remains a diffuse concept. This paper conceives a statistical indicator that aims at characterizing the energy supply risk of nations that are heavily dependent on energy imports. Our indicator condenses the bulk of empirical information on the imports of fossil fuels originating from a multitude of export countries as well as data on the indigenous contribution to the domestic energy supply into a single parameter. Applying the proposed concept to empirical energy data on Germany and the U.S. (1980-2004), we find that there is a large gap in the energy supply risks between both countries, with Germany suffering much more from a tensed energy supply situation today than the U.S. (orig.)

  10. Venezuelan gas developments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Michael, H.

    1993-01-01

    An overview is presented of the Venezuelan natural gas industry. The structure of PDVSA, the Petroleos de Venezuela Organization, its foreign and domestic affiliates, and its subsidiaries are discussed. Natural gas resources in Venezuela total 290 trillion cubic feet, and Venezuela's share of world, OPEC and latin American production and reserves are 1%, 11% and 26%, respectively for production and 3%, 6% and 49% for reserves. Venezuela's gas pipeline network, plants, production, and marketing are described. Natural gas production and demand forecasts to 2002 are presented. Gas resources are largely located in eastern Venezuela, and large volumes of natural gas non-associated with crude oil will start to become important in the Venezuelan natural gas industry. 19 figs

  11. Price and prospects for oil: carrying the burden of excess capacity in the 1980s and beyond

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Goldstein, W

    1985-12-01

    The continuing decline in world oil prices will not be halted in the short term, and prospects for the long run are not encouraging. There is a problem of unprecedented gravity in the surplus capacity of the oil industry. A glut of 10 million bbl/day of crude oil remains unsold, the cohesion of the OPEC cartel is becoming more strained, and a sizeable proportion of refinery plant has been taken off-stream. The basic difficulty is that high interest rates have curbed international capital formation and depressed demand. Upward pressures on the US dollar have been created by the deficit on US domestic and external accounts, and have retarded the recovery of the global economy. Today, the cost of money exceeds the factor price of oil, and the market is highly unstable. The devastating costs of carrying surplus capacity are likely to survive through the 1980s. 6 figures.

  12. How would the gas exporting countries forum influence gas trade?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wagbara, O.N.

    2007-01-01

    The cleanest burning fossil fuel, today, is natural gas. While many businesses have gone global, it has remained an exception. An impending challenge facing the industry, however, is the evolution of a cartel from the 5-year-old Gas Exporting Countries Forum. How would this new organization influence the trade of gas globally? Does its existence imply a threat to the development of gas trade? The paper reviews this fairly new organization within the context of the above questions. It is mainly a comparative study of the body in relation to OPEC's historical, political and economic development. Subsequently, the author proposes probable influence options available to the Forum and the impending consequence of such actions on the market. The outcome of this study calls for further analysis and research on new issues and questions of interest. (author)

  13. Petroleum and natural gas economy in Arab Countries, in Iran, Namibia Niger and Nigeria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1993-01-01

    This paper describes briefly main informations on petroleum prices and market trends, trade and contracts, production capacity, exports, demand, exploration and new discoveries. O.P.E.C. will have to invest $147-149 milliards to increase its petroleum production capacity to 37.49-38.69 Mb per day in year 2000. Gaz de France has announced the establishment of Iran Gas Europe, a joint venture entrusted to study the import of iranian liquefied natural gas in Europe. In Algeria, exploration contract has been signed by Petro-Canada and a new petroleum discovery has been announced by Repsol, in Illizi basin. In Namibia, Niger and Nigeria, new exploration permits have been conceded to Elf and Engen co

  14. Energy and the New World Order

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sander, M.

    1997-01-01

    Two major trends determine energy demand and supply; population growth and economic growth. This type of analysis very often forgets political and military events, both global and regional. This paper presents the major events influencing energy during the cold war and after the break-up of the USSR in so called ''New World Order'' which have politically and military determined energy supply and demand or, better to say, its price. The main accent is on oil and such events as the OPEC oil embargo in 1973 and the Gulf War in 1991. The relationship between oil and the other forms of primary energy production (coal, nuclear energy) as well as with energy in traffic and transportation are presented. All options in the period that we like to designate with the expression ''New World Order'' one discussed. (author)

  15. The outlook for the world and Australian oil markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Donaldson, K.; Fok, G.

    1996-01-01

    Global demand for oil is projected to continue its upward trend to 2000-1, with growth in the transport sector expected to underpin future increases in oil consumption. World oil consumption is projected to be matched by global production, keeping the average annual oil price relatively stable. In many countries, the diversion of oil revenue to other projects is threatening to constrain increases in production capacity, particularly in the OPEC countries. The encouragement of foreign investment in state oil industries is a likely method of easing the constraint. Australian exploration activity is rising steadily with the prospect of stable oil prices, expanding gas markets and the incentives provided by a number of recent discoveries. While the geographical pattern of Australian production has now changed, with Western Australian production exceeding Victoria production, Australia is expected to maintain its position in the world oil market as a significant producer, importer and exporter. (author). 6 figs., 23 refs

  16. An assessment of energy and environmental issues related to the use of gas-to-liquid fuels in transportation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Greene, D.L.

    1999-01-01

    Recent technological advances in processes for converting natural gas into liquid fuels, combined with a growing need for cleaner, low-sulfur distillate fuel to mitigate the environmental impacts of diesel engines have raised the possibility of a substantial global gas-to-liquids (G-T-L) industry. This report examines the implications of G-T-L supply for U.S. energy security and the environment. It appears that a G-T-L industry would increase competitiveness in world liquid fuels markets, even if OPEC states are major producers of G-T-L's. Cleaner G-T-L distillates would help reduce air pollution from diesel engines. Implications for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions could be positive or negative, depending on the sources of natural gas, their alternative uses, and the degree of sequestration that can be achieved for CO 2 emissions produced during the conversion process

  17. New perspectives on domestic markets for uranium and western coal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lang, E.A.

    1984-01-01

    The growth in America's energy demand has been steadily decreasing relative to economic growth ever since the OPEC embargo in 1973. The amount of energy used to produce a dollar of GNP has dropped an average 2.4 percent each year. This combined with a significant slowdown in the economy has taken its toll on the entire natural resources industry. Our primary and alloy metals have suffered more during this downturn than anyone predicted, and the extent of their comeback is still highly uncertain. But now, with an economic recovery apparently underway, the outlook for minerals tied to electricity demand coal and uranium - is somewhat more promising. Unlike total energy, electricity demand has and will continue to increase in direct proportion with the economy

  18. Gas and petroleum industry in Iraq: projects for after-embargo

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1995-01-01

    Before the gulf war during 1990/1991, the Iraq petroleum production was 3.14 millions of barrels by day and its production capacity 3.5 millions of barrels by day. Exports were 2.78 millions barrels by day. Because of destruction, capacity decreased. But, with re-building, capacity increased until 2.6 Mb/day and exports until 3.5 Mb/day. New reserves were explored and 35 deposits were discovered. Iraq reserves represent 14% of OPEC reserves and 11% of world reserves. Only 15 deposits among 73 petroleum deposits are actually operating. It is envisaged to negotiate with foreign societies to share production after embargo will be removed

  19. 'Charles River Associates analysis : impact of the world implementing the Kyoto Protocol : analysis of the impact on the Canadian upstream oil and gas industry of the global implementation of the Kyoto Protocol

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1999-09-01

    A study was conducted to estimate the impacts on the Canadian oil and gas industry from the changes in demand for oil and natural gas fuels caused by implementation of the Kyoto Protocol throughout the Canadian economy. The multi-sector, multi-region trade (MS-MRT) model was used in the study. The MS-MRT was designed to study the effects of carbon restrictions on industrial output, trade and economic welfare in different regions of the world. An overview of the model was presented. The regions in the MS-MRT model are divided as follows: Canada; United States; European Union; Other OECD; Eastern Europe and Former Soviet Union; Non-OECD Asia; Mexico and OPEC; and all other countries. This paper also described how production, consumption and trade are modelled. The cases under which the impacts on the Canadian oil and gas sectors are modelled were also presented. refs., tabs., figs

  20. Nonlinear analysis and dynamic structure in the energy market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aghababa, Hajar

    This research assesses the dynamic structure of the energy sector of the aggregate economy in the context of nonlinear mechanisms. Earlier studies have focused mainly on the price of the energy products when detecting nonlinearities in time series data of the energy market, and there is little mention of the production side of the market. Moreover, there is a lack of exploration about the implication of high dimensionality and time aggregation when analyzing the market's fundamentals. This research will address these gaps by including the quantity side of the market in addition to the price and by systematically incorporating various frequencies for sample sizes in three essays. The goal of this research is to provide an inclusive and exhaustive examination of the dynamics in the energy markets. The first essay begins with the application of statistical techniques, and it incorporates the most well-known univariate tests for nonlinearity with distinct power functions over alternatives and tests different null hypotheses. It utilizes the daily spot price observations on five major products in the energy market. The results suggest that the time series daily spot prices of the energy products are highly nonlinear in their nature. They demonstrate apparent evidence of general nonlinear serial dependence in each individual series, as well as nonlinearity in the first, second, and third moments of the series. The second essay examines the underlying mechanism of crude oil production and identifies the nonlinear structure of the production market by utilizing various monthly time series observations of crude oil production: the U.S. field, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), non-OPEC, and the world production of crude oil. The finding implies that the time series data of the U.S. field, OPEC, and the world production of crude oil exhibit deep nonlinearity in their structure and are generated by nonlinear mechanisms. However, the dynamics of the non-OPEC