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Sample records for online short-term solar

  1. Online Short-term Solar Power Forecasting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bacher, Peder; Madsen, Henrik; Nielsen, Henrik Aalborg

    This poster presents two approaches to online forecasting of power production from PV systems. The methods are suited for online forecasting in many applications and here they are used to predict hourly values of solar power for horizons up to 32 hours.......This poster presents two approaches to online forecasting of power production from PV systems. The methods are suited for online forecasting in many applications and here they are used to predict hourly values of solar power for horizons up to 32 hours....

  2. Online short-term solar power forecasting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bacher, Peder; Madsen, Henrik; Nielsen, Henrik Aalborg

    2009-01-01

    This paper describes a new approach to online forecasting of power production from PV systems. The method is suited to online forecasting in many applications and in this paper it is used to predict hourly values of solar power for horizons of up to 36 hours. The data used is fifteen....... Then forecasts of the normalized solar power are calculated using adaptive linear time series models. Both autoregressive (AR) and AR with exogenous input (ARX) models are evaluated, where the latter takes numerical weather predictions (NWPs) as input. The results indicate that for forecasts up to two hours...

  3. Online short-term solar power forecasting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bacher, Peder; Madsen, Henrik; Nielsen, Henrik Aalborg

    2009-01-01

    -minute observations of solar power from 21 PV systems located on rooftops in a small village in Denmark. The suggested method is a two-stage method where first a statistical normalization of the solar power is obtained using a clear sky model. The clear sky model is found using statistical smoothing techniques...

  4. Short-Term Solar Collector Power Forecasting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bacher, Peder; Madsen, Henrik; Perers, Bengt

    2011-01-01

    This paper describes a new approach to online forecasting of power output from solar thermal collectors. The method is suited for online forecasting in many applications and in this paper it is applied to predict hourly values of power from a standard single glazed large area flat plate collector....... The method is applied for horizons of up to 42 hours. Solar heating systems naturally come with a hot water tank, which can be utilized for energy storage also for other energy sources. Thereby such systems can become an important part of energy systems with a large share of uncontrollable energy sources......, such as wind power. In such a scenario online forecasting is a vital tool for optimal control and utilization of solar heating systems. The method is a two-step scheme, where first a non-linear model is applied to transform the solar power into a stationary process, which then is forecasted with robust time...

  5. Short-term predictions of solar flares.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burov, V. A.

    1990-02-01

    A review of present-day theoretical investigations of the problem of the accumulation and release of energy in solar flares permits advancing the opinion that only individual flare events are described by a concrete model and that a single model alone does not describe the entire diversity of flares. Consideration of the observational data does not permit claiming the existence of a single universal mechanism known today of flare events. It appears possible to treat the problem of prediction in terms of the algebra of logic (Boolean logic) and to compare the truth table with the often-used contingency table. The introduction of a number of very general assumptions permits forming a general approach to the development of predictive schemes and selection of the individual elements of the models and informative criteria. Experimental results are given on the testing of some prediction procedures. The author's procedure of routine short-term prediction of flares on the basis of the methods of instruction on pattern recognition implemented in the form of a set of programs is outlined. The results of the application of this procedure in 1986 - 1988 are presented.

  6. Short term fluctuations of wind and solar power systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anvari, M.; Lohmann, G.; Wächter, M.; Milan, P.; Lorenz, E.; Heinemann, D.; Rahimi Tabar, M. Reza; Peinke, Joachim

    2016-06-01

    Wind and solar power are known to be highly influenced by weather events and may ramp up or down abruptly. Such events in the power production influence not only the availability of energy, but also the stability of the entire power grid. By analysing significant amounts of data from several regions around the world with resolutions of seconds to minutes, we provide strong evidence that renewable wind and solar sources exhibit multiple types of variability and nonlinearity in the time scale of seconds and characterise their stochastic properties. In contrast to previous findings, we show that only the jumpy characteristic of renewable sources decreases when increasing the spatial size over which the renewable energies are harvested. Otherwise, the strong non-Gaussian, intermittent behaviour in the cumulative power of the total field survives even for a country-wide distribution of the systems. The strong fluctuating behaviour of renewable wind and solar sources can be well characterised by Kolmogorov-like power spectra and q-exponential probability density functions. Using the estimated potential shape of power time series, we quantify the jumpy or diffusive dynamic of the power. Finally we propose a time delayed feedback technique as a control algorithm to suppress the observed short term non-Gaussian statistics in spatially strong correlated and intermittent renewable sources.

  7. Modelling the effects of (short-term solar variability on stratospheric chemistry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Muncaster

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available The photochemical response of the stratosphere to short-term solar variability is investigated using a photochemistry column model with interactive photolysis calculation. The solar variability is here simply represented using the Lean (1997 solar minimum and maximum spectra. In order to isolate the photochemistry effect, simulations are devoid of diffusion or any other external forcing and the temperature is held constant. The solar mininum/maximum response is estimated for all chemical families and partitioning ratios, and the underlying photochemical mechanisms are described in detail. The ozone response peaks at 0.18 ppmv (approximatively 3% at 37 km altitude. In an attempt to find the simplest statistical model able to represent the effect of solar variability in the stratosphere, the diurnal-average response of ozone from an ensemble of 200 simulations is regressed linearly following two auto-regressive models. In the simplest case, an adjusted coefficient of determination R2 larger than 0.97 is found throughout the stratosphere using two predictors, namely the previous day's ozone perturbation and the current day's solar irradiance perturbation. A better accuracy (R2 larger than 0.9992 is achieved with an additional predictor, the previous day's solar irradiance perturbation. The skills of the two auto-regressive models at representing the effect of solar variability are then evaluated independently when coupled either on-line or off-line with the comprehensive photochemistry column model driven by the solar average spectrum. In all cases, the magnitude of the bias and the RMS error are found smaller than 5% and 20% of the ozone response, respectively. When used on-line, the 3-predictor model captures the ozone response to solar variability throughout the stratosphere with bias and RMS error

  8. Short term fluctuations of wind and solar power systems

    CERN Document Server

    Anvari, M; Wächter, M; Milan, P; Lorenz, E; Heinemann, D; Tabar, M Reza Rahimi; Peinke, Joachim

    2016-01-01

    Wind and solar power are known to be highly influenced by weather events and may ramp up or down abruptly. Such events in the power production influence not only the availability of energy, but also the stability of the entire power grid. By analysing significant amounts of data from several regions around the world with resolutions of seconds to minutes, we provide strong evidence that renewable wind and solar sources exhibit multiple types of variability and nonlinearity in the time scale of {\\it seconds} and characterise their stochastic properties. In contrast to previous findings, we show that only the jumpy characteristic of renewable sources decreases when increasing the spatial size over which the renewable energies are harvested. Otherwise, the strong non-Gaussian, intermittent behaviour in the cumulative power of the total field survives even for a country-wide distribution of the systems. The strong fluctuating behaviour of renewable wind and solar sources can be well characterised by Kolmogorov-li...

  9. Short-term solar irradiance and irradiation forecasts via different time series techniques: A preliminary study

    CERN Document Server

    Join, Cédric; Fliess, Michel; Muselli, Marc; Nivet, Marie Laure; Paoli, Christophe; Chaxel, Frédéric

    2014-01-01

    This communication is devoted to solar irradiance and irradiation short-term forecasts, which are useful for electricity production. Several different time series approaches are employed. Our results and the corresponding numerical simulations show that techniques which do not need a large amount of historical data behave better than those which need them, especially when those data are quite noisy.

  10. Short-Term Solar Irradiance Forecasting Model Based on Artificial Neural Network Using Statistical Feature Parameters

    OpenAIRE

    Wang, Fei; Mi, Zengqiang; Su, Shi; Zhao, Hongshan

    2012-01-01

    Short-term solar irradiance forecasting (STSIF) is of great significance for the optimal operation and power predication of grid-connected photovoltaic (PV) plants. However, STSIF is very complex to handle due to the random and nonlinear characteristics of solar irradiance under changeable weather conditions. Artificial Neural Network (ANN) is suitable for STSIF modeling and many research works on this topic are presented, but the conciseness and robustness of the existing models still need t...

  11. Impacts of Short-Term Solar Power Forecasts in System Operations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ibanez, Eduardo; Krad, Ibrahim; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Ela, Erik

    2016-05-05

    Solar generation is experiencing an exponential growth in power systems worldwide and, along with wind power, is posing new challenges to power system operations. Those challenges are characterized by an increase of system variability and uncertainty across many time scales: from days, down to hours, minutes, and seconds. Much of the research in the area has focused on the effect of solar forecasting across hours or days. This paper presents a methodology to capture the effect of short-term forecasting strategies and analyzes the economic and reliability implications of utilizing a simple, yet effective forecasting method for solar PV in intra-day operations.

  12. Very Short-term Nonparametric Probabilistic Forecasting of Renewable Energy Generation - with Application to Solar Energy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Golestaneh, Faranak; Pinson, Pierre; Gooi, Hoay Beng

    2016-01-01

    Due to the inherent uncertainty involved in renewable energy forecasting, uncertainty quantification is a key input to maintain acceptable levels of reliability and profitability in power system operation. A proposal is formulated and evaluated here for the case of solar power generation, when only...... approach to generate very short-term predictive densities, i.e., for lead times between a few minutes to one hour ahead, with fast frequency updates. We rely on an Extreme Learning Machine (ELM) as a fast regression model, trained in varied ways to obtain both point and quantile forecasts of solar power...... generation. Four probabilistic methods are implemented as benchmarks. Rival approaches are evaluated based on a number of test cases for two solar power generation sites in different climatic regions, allowing us to show that our approach results in generation of skilful and reliable probabilistic forecasts...

  13. Development of an adaptive online fuzzy arbitrator for forecasting short-term natural gas usage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lukas, Richard James, Jr.

    2001-07-01

    The focus of the work is on the development and utilization of a self-assembling Fuzzy logic controller for the purpose of improving short term natural gas load forecasts generated by artificial neural networks (ANN) and linear regression (LR) models. The approach is to form a matrix of dynamic post processors (DPP), composed of ARMAX models, which use load estimates generated by ANNs and LRs as inputs. The problem is to then determine the performance of each DPP under different operating conditions, and to generate a final load estimate using a Fuzzy logic controller. The contributions of this research are as follows. First, as part of a residuals analysis, prefiltering and nonlinear transforms are explored for the purpose of increasing the correlation of environmental input factors with gas load, while decreasing multicollinearity. This has the effect of reducing the covariance of model parameters and increasing forecast confidence. The result of this analysis will be used to develop ARMAX models to postfilter the ANN and LR forecast model estimates. The gas operating regions will be characterized by an adaptive clustering algorithm that will partition operating conditions into distinct patterns with unique consumption characteristics. Finally, an adaptive online Fuzzy controller identifies the characteristics of each DPP under different operating conditions, and generates a weighted average of the DPP estimators to produce the final gas load estimate.

  14. High-temperature solar receiver integrated with a short-term storage system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giovannelli, Ambra; Bashir, Muhammad Anser; Archilei, Erika Maria

    2017-06-01

    Small-Scale Concentrated Solar Power Plants could have a potential market for off-grid applications in rural contexts with limited access to the electrical grid and favorable environmental characteristics. Some Small-Scale plants have already been developed, like the 25-30 kWe Dish-Stirling engine. Other ones are under development as, for example, plants based on Parabolic Trough Collectors coupled with Organic Rankine Cycles. Furthermore, the technological progress achieved in the development of new small high-temperature solar receiver, makes possible the development of interesting systems based on Micro Gas Turbines coupled with Dish collectors. Such systems could have several advantages in terms of costs, reliability and availability if compared with Dish-Stirling plants. In addition, Dish-Micro Gas Turbine systems are expected to have higher performance than Solar Organic Rankine Cycle plants. The present work focuses the attention on some challenging aspects related to the design of small high-temperature solar receivers for Dish-Micro Gas Turbine systems. Natural fluctuations in the solar radiation can reduce system performance and damage seriously the Micro Gas Turbine. To stabilize the system operation, the solar receiver has to assure a proper thermal inertia. Therefore, a solar receiver integrated with a short-term storage system based on high-temperature phase-change materials is proposed in this paper. Steady-state and transient analyses (for thermal storage charge and discharge phases) have been carried out using the commercial CFD code Ansys-Fluent. Results are presented and discussed.

  15. Implications of Wide-Area Geographic Diversity for Short- Term Variability of Solar Power

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mills, Andrew; Wiser, Ryan

    2010-08-23

    Worldwide interest in the deployment of photovoltaic generation (PV) is rapidly increasing. Operating experience with large PV plants, however, demonstrates that large, rapid changes in the output of PV plants are possible. Early studies of PV grid impacts suggested that short-term variability could be a potential limiting factor in deploying PV. Many of these early studies, however, lacked high-quality data from multiple sites to assess the costs and impacts of increasing PV penetration. As is well known for wind, accounting for the potential for geographic diversity can significantly reduce the magnitude of extreme changes in aggregated PV output, the resources required to accommodate that variability, and the potential costs of managing variability. We use measured 1-min solar insolation for 23 time-synchronized sites in the Southern Great Plains network of the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement program and wind speed data from 10 sites in the same network to characterize the variability of PV with different degrees of geographic diversity and to compare the variability of PV to the variability of similarly sited wind. The relative aggregate variability of PV plants sited in a dense 10 x 10 array with 20 km spacing is six times less than the variability of a single site for variability on time scales less than 15-min. We find in our analysis of wind and PV plants similarly sited in a 5 x 5 grid with 50 km spacing that the variability of PV is only slightly more than the variability of wind on time scales of 5-15 min. Over shorter and longer time scales the level of variability is nearly identical. Finally, we use a simple approximation method to estimate the cost of carrying additional reserves to manage sub-hourly variability. We conclude that the costs of managing the short-term variability of PV are dramatically reduced by geographic diversity and are not substantially different from the costs for managing the short-term variability of similarly sited wind in

  16. Short-Term Solar Irradiance Forecasting Model Based on Artificial Neural Network Using Statistical Feature Parameters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hongshan Zhao

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Short-term solar irradiance forecasting (STSIF is of great significance for the optimal operation and power predication of grid-connected photovoltaic (PV plants. However, STSIF is very complex to handle due to the random and nonlinear characteristics of solar irradiance under changeable weather conditions. Artificial Neural Network (ANN is suitable for STSIF modeling and many research works on this topic are presented, but the conciseness and robustness of the existing models still need to be improved. After discussing the relation between weather variations and irradiance, the characteristics of the statistical feature parameters of irradiance under different weather conditions are figured out. A novel ANN model using statistical feature parameters (ANN-SFP for STSIF is proposed in this paper. The input vector is reconstructed with several statistical feature parameters of irradiance and ambient temperature. Thus sufficient information can be effectively extracted from relatively few inputs and the model complexity is reduced. The model structure is determined by cross-validation (CV, and the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm (LMA is used for the network training. Simulations are carried out to validate and compare the proposed model with the conventional ANN model using historical data series (ANN-HDS, and the results indicated that the forecast accuracy is obviously improved under variable weather conditions.

  17. Short-term forecast of the total and spectral solar irradiance

    CERN Document Server

    Vieira, Luis Eduardo A; Kretzschmar, Matthieu

    2011-01-01

    Among several heliophysical and geophysical quantities, the accurate evolution of the solar irradiance is fundamental to forecast the evolution of the neutral and ionized components of the Earth's atmosphere.We developed an artificial neural network model to compute the evolution of the solar irradiance in near-real time. The model is based on the assumption that that great part of the solar irradiance variability is due to the evolution of the structure of the solar magnetic field. We employ a Layer-Recurrent Network (LRN) to model the complex relationships between the evolution of the bipolar magnetic structures (input) and the solar irradiance (output). The evolution of the bipolar magnetic structures is obtained from near-real time solar disk magnetograms and intensity images. The magnetic structures are identify and classified according to the area of the solar disk covered. We constrained the model by comparing the output of the model and observations of the solar irradiance made by instruments onboard ...

  18. Short-term forecasting of solar energetic ions on board LISA

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Grimani, C [Istituto di Fisica Universita degli Studi di Urbino ' Carlo Bo' , Urbino (PU) and Istituto Nazionale di Fisica Nucleare, Florence (Italy); Araujo, H M; Shaul, D N A; Sumner, T J [Imperial College, London (United Kingdom); Fabi, M [Istituto di Fisica Universita degli studi di Urbino ' Carlo Bo' (Italy); Finetti, N [Dipartimento di Fisica, Universita degli Studi dell' Aquila and Istituto Nazionale di Fisica Nucleare, Laboratori Nazionali del Gran Sasso, Gruppo collegato dell' Aquila, L' Aquila (Italy); Lobo, A; Mateos, I, E-mail: catia.grimani@uniurb.i [Institut d' Estudis Espacials de Catalunya (IEEC), Barcelona (Spain)

    2010-05-01

    LISA (Laser Interferometer Space Antenna) and LISA Pathfinder (LISA-PF) free-falling test-masses are charged by galactic and solar energetic particles. This process generates spurious forces on the test masses which appear as noise in the experiments. It was shown that relativistic solar electron detection can be used for up-to-one-hour forecasting of incoming energetic ions at 1 AU. Warning of incoming solar energetic particle events could allow us to optimize the test-mass discharging. The current LISA-PF radiation monitor design needs to be upgraded if solar electron detection is to be implemented in LISA.

  19. A search for short-term meteorological effects of solar variability in an atmospheric circulation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Somerville, R. C. J.; Quirk, W. J.; Hansen, J. E.; Lacis, A. A.; Stone, P. H.

    1976-01-01

    A set of numerical experiments is carried out to test the short-range sensitivity of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies global atmospheric general-circulation model to changes in solar constant and ozone amount. These experiments consist of forecasts initiated with actual atmospheric data. One set of forecasts is made with a standard version of the model; another set uses the model modified by very different values of the solar constant (two-thirds and three-halves of the standard value) and of the ozone amount (zero and twice the standard amount). Twelve-day integrations with these very large variations show such small effects that the effects of realistic variations would almost certainly be insignificant meteorologically on this time scale.

  20. Short-term solar wind modulation of the global electric circuit

    Science.gov (United States)

    Engfer, Daniel William

    Five separate key day sets are used to determine correlations between two candidate solar wind mechanisms and changes in atmospheric parameters at Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii and Colaba Observatory in India. We evaluate responses of these parameters to external modulation of the global electric circuit by the solar wind using the superposed epoch method of analysis. The results are interpreted in terms of a simplified global electric circuit model with two parallel return paths, one at low to middle geomagnetic latitudes and the other at middle to high geomagnetic latitudes. We find responses similar to those expected from external modulation, but of marginal statistical significance. The Mauna Loa set contains current density, potential gradient and positive and negative conductivity data for the 1976-1984 period, while the Colaba set contains potential gradient data through the 1936-1966 period. A data reduction technique is devised to increase the signal to noise ratio of our results by removing noisy data and periodic variations from these ground-based data sets. Throughout this process diurnal and annual variations of these parameters at both sites are evaluated and compared with available observations by other researchers. Using two separate key day sets and data from the Dynamics Explorer 2 satellite for the August 1981 to February 1983 time period, we endeavor to determine correlations between changes in ionospheric horizontal potential gradients and solar wind related physical inputs using superposed epoch analysis. In this manner, responses to external inputs are revealed for potential gradients of various latitudinal extents 5md ranges of local time. The local time variation is evaluated and subtracted from all potential gradients to increase the signal to noise ratio of the results. We also consider the possible effects of solar wind-modulated ionospheric potential gradients on the global electric circuit.

  1. Influence of short-term solar disturbances on the fair weather conduction current

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elhalel Gal

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The fair weather atmospheric electrical current (Jz couples the ionosphere to the lower atmosphere and thus provides a route by which changes in solar activity can modify processes in the lower troposphere. This paper examines the temporal variations and spectral characteristics of continuous measurements of Jz conducted at the Wise Observatory in Mitzpe-Ramon, Israel (30°35′ N, 34°45′ E, during two large CMEs, and during periods of increased solar wind density. Evidence is presented for the effects of geomagnetic storms and sub-storms on low latitude Jz during two coronal mass ejections (CMEs, on 24–25th October 2011 and 7–8th March 2012, when the variability in Jz increased by an order of magnitude compared to normal fair weather conditions. The dynamic spectrum of the increased Jz fluctuations exhibit peaks in the Pc5 frequency range. Similar low frequency characteristics occur during periods of enhanced solar wind proton density. During the October 2011 event, the periods of increased fluctuations in Jz lasted for 7 h and coincided with fluctuations of the inter-planetary magnetic field (IMF detected by the ACE satellite. We suggest downward mapping of ionospheric electric fields as a possible mechanism for the increased fluctuations.

  2. Prognostic indicators influencing short term outcomes among ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Prognostic indicators influencing short term outcomes among operated head injury patients ... AFRICAN JOURNALS ONLINE (AJOL) · Journals · Advanced Search ... indicators for short term outcomes in operated head injury patients at KCMC.

  3. Comparison of brief versus extended personalised feedback in an online intervention for cannabis users: Short-term findings of a randomised trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Copeland, Jan; Rooke, Sally; Rodriquez, Dan; Norberg, Melissa M; Gibson, Lisa

    2017-05-01

    Previous studies have shown brief online self-help interventions to be a useful method of treating cannabis use and related problems; however, no studies have compared the effects of brief versus extended feedback for online brief intervention programs. The current study was a two arm randomised trial aimed at testing the short term effectiveness of a brief and extended feedback version of Grassessment, a brief online intervention for cannabis users that provides individualised feedback regarding use, motives, and harms. Participants (n=287) reporting at least one symptom of DSM IV cannabis abuse or dependence were recruited using online and offline advertising methods. Participants were randomised to receive either a brief or extended feedback version of the Grassessment program and were required to complete a one month follow up questionnaire. One hundred and ninety four participants completed the one month follow up. Wilcoxon analyses showed a significant decrease in past month quantity and frequency of cannabis use (psbrief feedback condition. Participants in the extended feedback group also demonstrated significant decreases in patterns of use (psbrief online self-complete interventions to reduce cannabis use and related problems in the short term. The findings suggest that in the case of the brief online screening and feedback program Grassessment, extended feedback does not lead to superior outcomes over brief feedback. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Short-Term Forecasting of Surface Solar Irradiance Based on Meteosat-SEVIRI Data Using a Nighttime Cloud Index

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Annette Hammer

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available The cloud index is a key parameter of the Heliosat method. This method is widely used to calculate solar irradiance on the Earth’s surface from Meteosat visible channel images. Moreover, cloud index images are the basis of short-term forecasting of solar irradiance and photovoltaic power production. For this purpose, cloud motion vectors are derived from consecutive images, and the motion of clouds is extrapolated to obtain forecasted cloud index images. The cloud index calculation is restricted to the daylight hours, as long as SEVIRI HR-VIS images are used. Hence, this forecast method cannot be used before sunrise. In this paper, a method is introduced that can be utilized a few hours before sunrise. The cloud information is gained from the brightness temperature difference (BTD of the 10.8 µm and 3.9 µm SEVIRI infrared channels. A statistical relation is developed to assign a cloud index value to either the BTD or the brightness temperature T10:8, depending on the cloud class to which the pixel belongs (fog and low stratus, clouds with temperatures less than 232 K, other clouds. Images are composed of regular HR-VIS cloud index values that are used to the east of the terminator and of nighttime BTD-derived cloud index values used to the west of the terminator, where the Sun has not yet risen. The motion vector algorithm is applied to the images and delivers a forecast of irradiance at sunrise and in the morning. The forecasted irradiance is validated with ground measurements of global horizontal irradiance, and the advantage of the new approach is shown. The RMSE of forecasted irradiance based on the presented nighttime cloud index for the morning hours is between 3 and 70 W/m2, depending on the time of day. This is an improvement against the previous precision range of the forecast based on the daytime cloud index between 70 and 85 W/m2.

  5. Short-term prediction of solar energy in Saudi Arabia using automated-design fuzzy logic systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-01-01

    Solar energy is considered as one of the main sources for renewable energy in the near future. However, solar energy and other renewable energy sources have a drawback related to the difficulty in predicting their availability in the near future. This problem affects optimal exploitation of solar energy, especially in connection with other resources. Therefore, reliable solar energy prediction models are essential to solar energy management and economics. This paper presents work aimed at designing reliable models to predict the global horizontal irradiance (GHI) for the next day in 8 stations in Saudi Arabia. The designed models are based on computational intelligence methods of automated-design fuzzy logic systems. The fuzzy logic systems are designed and optimized with two models using fuzzy c-means clustering (FCM) and simulated annealing (SA) algorithms. The first model uses FCM based on the subtractive clustering algorithm to automatically design the predictor fuzzy rules from data. The second model is using FCM followed by simulated annealing algorithm to enhance the prediction accuracy of the fuzzy logic system. The objective of the predictor is to accurately predict next-day global horizontal irradiance (GHI) using previous-day meteorological and solar radiation observations. The proposed models use observations of 10 variables of measured meteorological and solar radiation data to build the model. The experimentation and results of the prediction are detailed where the root mean square error of the prediction was approximately 88% for the second model tuned by simulated annealing compared to 79.75% accuracy using the first model. This results demonstrate a good modeling accuracy of the second model despite that the training and testing of the proposed models were carried out using spatially and temporally independent data. PMID:28806754

  6. Short-term prediction of solar energy in Saudi Arabia using automated-design fuzzy logic systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Almaraashi, Majid

    2017-01-01

    Solar energy is considered as one of the main sources for renewable energy in the near future. However, solar energy and other renewable energy sources have a drawback related to the difficulty in predicting their availability in the near future. This problem affects optimal exploitation of solar energy, especially in connection with other resources. Therefore, reliable solar energy prediction models are essential to solar energy management and economics. This paper presents work aimed at designing reliable models to predict the global horizontal irradiance (GHI) for the next day in 8 stations in Saudi Arabia. The designed models are based on computational intelligence methods of automated-design fuzzy logic systems. The fuzzy logic systems are designed and optimized with two models using fuzzy c-means clustering (FCM) and simulated annealing (SA) algorithms. The first model uses FCM based on the subtractive clustering algorithm to automatically design the predictor fuzzy rules from data. The second model is using FCM followed by simulated annealing algorithm to enhance the prediction accuracy of the fuzzy logic system. The objective of the predictor is to accurately predict next-day global horizontal irradiance (GHI) using previous-day meteorological and solar radiation observations. The proposed models use observations of 10 variables of measured meteorological and solar radiation data to build the model. The experimentation and results of the prediction are detailed where the root mean square error of the prediction was approximately 88% for the second model tuned by simulated annealing compared to 79.75% accuracy using the first model. This results demonstrate a good modeling accuracy of the second model despite that the training and testing of the proposed models were carried out using spatially and temporally independent data.

  7. The HARPS search for southern extra-solar planets. XXX. Planetary systems around stars with solar-like magnetic cycles and short-term activity variation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dumusque, X.; Lovis, C.; Ségransan, D.; Mayor, M.; Udry, S.; Benz, W.; Bouchy, F.; Lo Curto, G.; Mordasini, C.; Pepe, F.; Queloz, D.; Santos, N. C.; Naef, D.

    2011-11-01

    We present the discovery of four new long-period planets within the HARPS high-precision sample: HD 137388b (Msini = 0.22 MJ), HD 204941b (Msini = 0.27 MJ), HD 7199b (Msini = 0.29 MJ), HD 7449b (Msini = 1.04 MJ). A long-period companion, probably a second planet, is also found orbiting HD 7449. Planets around HD 137388, HD 204941, and HD 7199 have rather low eccentricities (less than 0.4) relative to the 0.82 eccentricity of HD 7449b. All these planets were discovered even though their hosting stars have clear signs of activity. Solar-like magnetic cycles, characterized by long-term activity variations, can be seen for HD 137388, HD 204941 and HD 7199, whereas the measurements of HD 7449 reveal a short-term activity variation, most probably induced by magnetic features on the stellar surface. We confirm that magnetic cycles induce a long-term radial velocity variation and propose a method to reduce considerably the associated noise. The procedure consists of fitting the activity index and applying the same solution to the radial velocities because a linear correlation between the activity index and the radial velocity is found. Tested on HD 137388, HD 204941, and HD 7199, this correction reduces considerably the stellar noise induced by magnetic cycles and allows us to derive precisely the orbital parameters of planetary companions. Based on observations made with the HARPS instrument on the ESO 3.6-m telescope at La Silla Observatory (Chile), under programme IDs 072.C-0488 and 183.C-0972.Radial velocities (Tables 4-7) are only available at the CDS via anonymous ftp to cdsarc.u-strasbg.fr (130.79.128.5) or via http://cdsarc.u-strasbg.fr/viz-bin/qcat?J/A+A/535/A55

  8. A model study of the response of mesospheric ozone to short-term solar ultraviolet flux variations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Summers, M. E.; Bevilacqua, R. M.; Strobel, D. F.; Zhu, Xun; Deland, M. T.; Allen, M.; Keating, G. M.

    1990-01-01

    An investigation is conducted in order to determine the relative importance of several modeled processes in controlling the magnitude and phase of the mesospheric ozone response. A detailed one-dimensional modeling study of the mesospheric ozone response to solar UV flux variations is conducted to remove some of the deficiencies in previous studies. This study is also used to examine specifically the importance of solar zenith angle, self-consistent calculation of water vapor abundance, and temperature feedback with a nonlocal thermodynamic equilibrium radiation model. The photochemical model is described, and the assumptions made for the purpose of comparing model results with the observed ozone response obtained from a statistical analysis of Solar Mesosphere Explorer data (Keating et al., 1987) are discussed. The numerical results for the theoretical ozone response are presented. The results of selected time-dependent calculations are considered to illustrate the degree to which a relatively simple model of the mesosphere is able to capture the major characteristics of the observed response.

  9. Very short-term reactive forecasting of the solar ultraviolet index using an extreme learning machine integrated with the solar zenith angle.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deo, Ravinesh C; Downs, Nathan; Parisi, Alfio V; Adamowski, Jan F; Quilty, John M

    2017-05-01

    Exposure to erythemally-effective solar ultraviolet radiation (UVR) that contributes to malignant keratinocyte cancers and associated health-risk is best mitigated through innovative decision-support systems, with global solar UV index (UVI) forecast necessary to inform real-time sun-protection behaviour recommendations. It follows that the UVI forecasting models are useful tools for such decision-making. In this study, a model for computationally-efficient data-driven forecasting of diffuse and global very short-term reactive (VSTR) (10-min lead-time) UVI, enhanced by drawing on the solar zenith angle (θs) data, was developed using an extreme learning machine (ELM) algorithm. An ELM algorithm typically serves to address complex and ill-defined forecasting problems. UV spectroradiometer situated in Toowoomba, Australia measured daily cycles (0500-1700h) of UVI over the austral summer period. After trialling activations functions based on sine, hard limit, logarithmic and tangent sigmoid and triangular and radial basis networks for best results, an optimal ELM architecture utilising logarithmic sigmoid equation in hidden layer, with lagged combinations of θs as the predictor data was developed. ELM's performance was evaluated using statistical metrics: correlation coefficient (r), Willmott's Index (WI), Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (ENS), root mean square error (RMSE), and mean absolute error (MAE) between observed and forecasted UVI. Using these metrics, the ELM model's performance was compared to that of existing methods: multivariate adaptive regression spline (MARS), M5 Model Tree, and a semi-empirical (Pro6UV) clear sky model. Based on RMSE and MAE values, the ELM model (0.255, 0.346, respectively) outperformed the MARS (0.310, 0.438) and M5 Model Tree (0.346, 0.466) models. Concurring with these metrics, the Willmott's Index for the ELM, MARS and M5 Model Tree models were 0.966, 0.942 and 0.934, respectively. About 57% of the ELM model's absolute

  10. Short Term Effect of Exercise on Intraocular Pressure of Ocular ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Short Term Effect of Exercise on Intraocular Pressure of Ocular Hypertensive Subjects. ... AFRICAN JOURNALS ONLINE (AJOL) · Journals · Advanced Search ... Keywords: Intraocular pressure; short term exercise; ocular hypertension.

  11. Analysis of growth characteristics in short-term divergently selected ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Analysis of growth characteristics in short-term divergently selected Japanese quail. ... AFRICAN JOURNALS ONLINE (AJOL) · Journals · Advanced Search · USING ... This study was carried out to examine the effect of short-term selection for ...

  12. Effect Of Admission Hyperglycaemia On Short-Term Outcome In ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Effect Of Admission Hyperglycaemia On Short-Term Outcome In Adult ... AFRICAN JOURNALS ONLINE (AJOL) · Journals · Advanced Search · USING AJOL ... Admission hyperglycaemia is a significant predictor of short-term case fatality but ...

  13. Short term climate trend and variability around Woliso, Oromia ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Short term climate trend and variability around Woliso, Oromia Region, Central Ethiopia. ... AFRICAN JOURNALS ONLINE (AJOL) · Journals · Advanced Search ... for the last decade (2004-2013), short-term climate variability was assessed.

  14. The “Weather Intelligence for Renewable Energies” Benchmarking Exercise on Short-Term Forecasting of Wind and Solar Power Generation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simone Sperati

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available A benchmarking exercise was organized within the framework of the European Action Weather Intelligence for Renewable Energies (“WIRE” with the purpose of evaluating the performance of state of the art models for short-term renewable energy forecasting. The exercise consisted in forecasting the power output of two wind farms and two photovoltaic power plants, in order to compare the merits of forecasts based on different modeling approaches and input data. It was thus possible to obtain a better knowledge of the state of the art in both wind and solar power forecasting, with an overview and comparison of the principal and the novel approaches that are used today in the field, and to assess the evolution of forecast performance with respect to previous benchmarking exercises. The outcome of this exercise consisted then in proposing new challenges in the renewable power forecasting field and identifying the main areas for improving accuracy in the future.

  15. The “Weather Intelligence for Renewable Energies” Benchmarking Exercise on Short-Term Forecasting of Wind and Solar Power Generation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sperati, Simone; Alessandrini, Stefano; Pinson, Pierre

    2015-01-01

    A benchmarking exercise was organized within the framework of the European Action Weather Intelligence for Renewable Energies (“WIRE”) with the purpose of evaluating the performance of state of the art models for short-term renewable energy forecasting. The exercise consisted in forecasting...... the power output of two wind farms and two photovoltaic power plants, in order to compare the merits of forecasts based on different modeling approaches and input data. It was thus possible to obtain a better knowledge of the state of the art in both wind and solar power forecasting, with an overview...... and comparison of the principal and the novel approaches that are used today in the field, and to assess the evolution of forecast performance with respect to previous benchmarking exercises. The outcome of this exercise consisted then in proposing new challenges in the renewable power forecasting field...

  16. Development of a dynamic short-term test method for installed thermal solar systems; Entwicklung eines dynamischen Kurzzeittestverfahrens fuer installierte thermische Solaranlagen

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Beikircher, T.; Gut, M.; Kronthaler, P.; Oberdorf, C.; Schoelkopf, W. [Bayerisches Zentrum fuer Angewandte Energieforschung, Muenchen (Germany). Abt. Solarthermie und Biomasse

    1998-12-31

    A short-term test method for in-situ measurement of the collector field, pipelines and heat exchanger of large-surface solar systems was developed at ZAE Bayern, together with the necessary technical systems (mobile acquisition of meteorological data via telemetering, non-invasive surface temperature sensors and ultrasonic volume flow measuring instruments). Dynamic measurements were made for 11 days in a large-surface solar system of the ``Solarthermie 2000`` programme using the new measuring system. In order to optimize the evaluation procedure, the plant was simulated, and the influence of different models and operating conditions during the measurements on the prediction quality was investigated in detail. On this basis, it was possible to predict the long-term collector yield of the ZfS Hilden, which was measured for a period of 7 months, with an error of less than 5%. The method will be validated in two further industrial-scale systems. [Deutsch] Am ZAE Bayern wurde ein Kurzzeittestverfahren zur insitu-Vermessung des Kollektorkreises (Kollektorfeld, Rohrleitungen, Waermetauscher) grosser Solaranlagen entwickelt. Hierzu wurde eine der Aufgabenstellung angepasste Messtechnik entwickelt (Mobile meteorologische Datenerfassung mit Funkbetrieb, nicht-invasive Oberflaechen-Temperaturfuehler und Ultraschall-Volumenstrommessgeraete). Der Kollektorkreis einer grossen Solaranlage aus dem Programm Solarthermie 2000 wurde dynamisch ueber 11 Tage (29.10.-8.11.1997) mit der neuen Messtechnik vermessen. Zur Entwicklung eines geeigneten Auswerteverfahrens wurde die Anlage simulatorisch abgebildet und der Einfluss verschiedener Modellansaetze und der Betriebsbedingungen waehrend des Mess- und Vorhersagezeitraums auf die Vorhersageguete im Detail untersucht. Mit dem entwickelten Verfahren konnte aus der dynamischen Kurzzeitvermessung der in einer Langzeitmessung der ZfS Hilden ueber 7 Monate ermittelte Kollektorertrag nach dem solaren Waermetauscher auf deutlich besser als 5

  17. Solar induced long- and short-term variations of the cosmic ray intensity in the past, and predictions and opportunities for the future

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCracken, K. G.; McDonald, F. B.; Beer, J.

    2009-12-01

    The cosmogenic radionuclide data from the past 10,000 years, and the instrumental cosmic ray data since 1936 provide detailed information on the possible consequences of the present long and deep solar minimum. Furthermore, the cosmic ray transport equation has been used to estimate the strength of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) throughout the past 10,000 years. This paper presents a series of figures that document the behavior of both the cosmic radiation and the IMF at Earth in the past. In particular, the 11-year cycles in both quantities for the past 600 years are displayed; and estimates given of the cosmic ray spectrum at Earth for situations that history tells us may occur in the near future. Over the longer term, a minimum of the Hallstatt cycle (2200 yr periodicity) of solar activity occurred ~500 years ago and the Sun is now on a steadily rising plane of activity. The historic record shows that the cosmic ray intensity has decreased extremely rapidly after earlier prolonged deep minima and this suggests rapid and large changes in the heliospheric conditions that we may see replicated. The paper will also display data from the deep, isolated solar minimum of 1956 that exhibited unusual low energy cosmic ray fluxes, and a highly anomalous cosmic ray gradient in the inner heliosphere. Paleo-cosmic ray evidence will also be displayed of an episode of intense solar energetic particle (SEP) events in the interval of reduced solar activity, 1892-1900, that may possibly be repeated. If the present long, deep solar minimum is a precursor to a “Grand Minimum” such as the Dalton minimum, it will provide a much improved insight into the spectrum of the cosmic radiation in interstellar space, and to the cosmic ray modulation process in the heliosphere. With this in mind, the paper suggests key measurements, and speculates on experimental conditions that may be markedly different from those encountered in the instrumental era.

  18. Cu{sub 2}ZnSnS{sub 4} solar cells fabricated by short-term sulfurization of sputtered Sn/Zn/Cu precursors under an H{sub 2}S atmosphere

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Emrani, Amin, E-mail: amin.emrani@gmail.com; Rajbhandari, Pravakar P.; Dhakal, Tara P.; Westgate, Charles R.

    2015-02-27

    Synthesis of Cu{sub 2}ZnSnS{sub 4} (CZTS) thin films by short-term sulfurization of sputtered Sn/Zn/Cu precursors under ambient H{sub 2}S is studied. The effect of the sulfurization processes on the film morphology, surface roughness, composition of the CZTS, and the crystallinity was investigated by using scanning electron microscopy, optical profiler, energy dispersive spectroscopy, and X-ray diffraction respectively. To further explore the CZTS layer, the following additional layers were deposited to complete the solar cells: CdS with chemical bath deposition; ZnO and Al{sub 2}O{sub 3}-doped ZnO with RF magnetron deposition; and, silver fingers as the front contact as the last layer. The optical and morphological properties of the CZTS films were investigated and compared. Subsequently, the electrical characteristics and the efficiencies of the regarding solar cells were analyzed. A maximum efficiency of 3.8% has been obtained for the fast sulfurization (30 min at 580 °C) and finally, the performance is compared with our best cell fabricated through the more common slow annealing. - Highlights: • Development of Cu{sub 2}ZnSnS{sub 4} (CZTS) solar cells using elemental metal sputtering • 112-oriented CZTS films with well-defined morphology obtained • Reported efficiency of 3.8% for a short-term annealing (less than 30 min) under ambient H{sub 2}S • A detailed comparison between the fast and the more common slow annealing is reported.

  19. The GEOSER project - short-term storage of solar heat in horticultural greenhouses; GEOSER Stockage solaire a court terme en serres horticoles

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hollmuller, P.; Lachal, P.; Gil, J. [University of Geneva, Centre Universitaire d' Etude des Problemes de l' Energie (CUEPE), Carouge (Switzerland); Jaboyedoff, P. [Sorane, Lausanne (Switzerland); Reist, A. [Centre des Fougeres, Station de recherches en production vegetale de Changins, Conthey (Switzerland); Danloy, L. [Danloy Luc, Meyrin (Switzerland)

    2002-07-01

    Today, horticultural greenhouses are significantly contributing to fresh victualling supply. In a temperate climate they have to be more or less permanently heated to make all-year round production possible. To reduce energy consumption, greenhouses were successively improved since the 70es, beginning with their envelope and heat distribution systems. The next step was the development of storage/heat-recovery systems for solar heat in greenhouses. Here, mainly two types are encountered: air/ground heat exchangers placed under the greenhouse ground; air/water heat exchangers in the greenhouse, connected to an underground water store. In the present report the two types are compared in a side-by-side experiment including a third greenhouse with a conventional gas heating and heat distribution system, as a reference. Comprehensive energy balances including parasitic energy consumption (electricity) are presented. In the three greenhouses the same agricultural programme was carried out. The comparative evaluation included this aspect as well. Computerized simulations supplemented the analysis, enabling a parametric study and the evaluation of potential improvements towards optimal systems.

  20. A Short Term Analogue Memory

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Shah, Peter Jivan

    1992-01-01

    A short term analogue memory is described. It is based on a well-known sample-hold topology in which leakage currents have been minimized partly by circuit design and partly by layout techniques. Measurements on a test chip implemented in a standard 2.4 micron analogue CMOS process show a droop...... rate of 0.075mV per second with a 1pF hold capacitor. This is equivalent to a retention time of approximately 1½ minute with 10 bits accuracy, assuming a full scale of +/-3.5V. It is expected that this can be improved by more than an order of magnitude by improving the layout of the hold capacitor...

  1. Onboard Short Term Plan Viewer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hall, Tim; LeBlanc, Troy; Ulman, Brian; McDonald, Aaron; Gramm, Paul; Chang, Li-Min; Keerthi, Suman; Kivlovitz, Dov; Hadlock, Jason

    2011-01-01

    Onboard Short Term Plan Viewer (OSTPV) is a computer program for electronic display of mission plans and timelines, both aboard the International Space Station (ISS) and in ISS ground control stations located in several countries. OSTPV was specifically designed both (1) for use within the limited ISS computing environment and (2) to be compatible with computers used in ground control stations. OSTPV supplants a prior system in which, aboard the ISS, timelines were printed on paper and incorporated into files that also contained other paper documents. Hence, the introduction of OSTPV has both reduced the consumption of resources and saved time in updating plans and timelines. OSTPV accepts, as input, the mission timeline output of a legacy, print-oriented, UNIX-based program called "Consolidated Planning System" and converts the timeline information for display in an interactive, dynamic, Windows Web-based graphical user interface that is used by both the ISS crew and ground control teams in real time. OSTPV enables the ISS crew to electronically indicate execution of timeline steps, launch electronic procedures, and efficiently report to ground control teams on the statuses of ISS activities, all by use of laptop computers aboard the ISS.

  2. Long short-term memory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hochreiter, S; Schmidhuber, J

    1997-11-15

    Learning to store information over extended time intervals by recurrent backpropagation takes a very long time, mostly because of insufficient, decaying error backflow. We briefly review Hochreiter's (1991) analysis of this problem, then address it by introducing a novel, efficient, gradient-based method called long short-term memory (LSTM). Truncating the gradient where this does not do harm, LSTM can learn to bridge minimal time lags in excess of 1000 discrete-time steps by enforcing constant error flow through constant error carousels within special units. Multiplicative gate units learn to open and close access to the constant error flow. LSTM is local in space and time; its computational complexity per time step and weight is O(1). Our experiments with artificial data involve local, distributed, real-valued, and noisy pattern representations. In comparisons with real-time recurrent learning, back propagation through time, recurrent cascade correlation, Elman nets, and neural sequence chunking, LSTM leads to many more successful runs, and learns much faster. LSTM also solves complex, artificial long-time-lag tasks that have never been solved by previous recurrent network algorithms.

  3. Short-term intercultural psychotherapy: ethnographic inquiry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seeley, Karen M

    2004-01-01

    This article examines the challenges specific to short-term intercultural treatments and recently developed approaches to intercultural treatments based on notions of cultural knowledge and cultural competence. The article introduces alternative approaches to short-term intercultural treatments based on ethnographic inquiry adapted for clinical practice. Such approaches allow clinicians conducting short-term intercultural treatments to foreground clients' indigenous conceptions of selfhood, mind, relationship, and emotional disturbance, and thus to more fully grasp their internal, interpersonal, and external worlds. This article demonstrates the uses of clinically adapted ethnographic inquiry in three short-term intercultural cases.

  4. Short-term managerial contracts facilitate cartels

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Han, M.A.

    2010-01-01

    This paper shows how a series of commonly observed short-term CEO employment contracts improves cartel stability compared to a long-term contract. When a manager’s short-term appointment is renewed if and only if the firm hits a certain profit target, then (a) defection from collusion results in sup

  5. Analyzing Short-Term Disability Benefits.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Houff, James N.; Wiatrowski, William J.

    1989-01-01

    The Bureau of Labour Statistics has combined data on sick leave and sickness and accident insurance. Results show that short-term disability benefits vary by length of service and between the private and public sectors. (Author)

  6. Short-term memory across eye blinks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Irwin, David E

    2014-01-01

    The effect of eye blinks on short-term memory was examined in two experiments. On each trial, participants viewed an initial display of coloured, oriented lines, then after a retention interval they viewed a test display that was either identical or different by one feature. Participants kept their eyes open throughout the retention interval on some blocks of trials, whereas on others they made a single eye blink. Accuracy was measured as a function of the number of items in the display to determine the capacity of short-term memory on blink and no-blink trials. In separate blocks of trials participants were instructed to remember colour only, orientation only, or both colour and orientation. Eye blinks reduced short-term memory capacity by approximately 0.6-0.8 items for both feature and conjunction stimuli. A third, control, experiment showed that a button press during the retention interval had no effect on short-term memory capacity, indicating that the effect of an eye blink was not due to general motoric dual-task interference. Eye blinks might instead reduce short-term memory capacity by interfering with attention-based rehearsal processes.

  7. Visual Short-Term Memory Complexity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Thomas Alrik

    Several recent studies have explored the nature and limits of visual short-term memory (VSTM) (e.g. Luck & Vogel, 1997). A general VSTM capacity limit of about 3 to 4 letters has been found, thus confirming results from earlier studies (e.g. Cattell, 1885; Sperling, 1960). However, Alvarez...

  8. Abdominal Pain (Stomach Pain), Short-Term

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... in Children and TeensRead MoreBMI Calculator Abdominal Pain (Stomach Pain), Short-termJust about everyone has had a " ... time or another. But sudden severe abdominal pain (stomach pain), also called acute pain, shouldn't be ...

  9. LIFE with Short-Term Memory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alonso-Sanz, Ramón

    This chapter considers an extension to the standard framework of cellular automata in which, cells are endowed with memory of their previous state values. The effect of short-term memory, i.e., memory of only the latest states, in the (formally unaltered) Life rule is described in this work.

  10. Frequency-specific insight into short-term memory capacity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feurra, Matteo; Galli, Giulia; Pavone, Enea Francesco; Rossi, Alessandro; Rossi, Simone

    2016-07-01

    The digit span is one of the most widely used memory tests in clinical and experimental neuropsychology for reliably measuring short-term memory capacity. In the forward version, sequences of digits of increasing length have to be reproduced in the order in which they are presented, whereas in the backward version items must be reproduced in the reversed order. Here, we assessed whether transcranial alternating current stimulation (tACS) increases the memory span for digits of young and midlife adults. Imperceptibly weak electrical currents in the alpha (10 Hz), beta (20 Hz), theta (5 Hz), and gamma (40 Hz) range, as well as a sham stimulation, were delivered over the left posterior parietal cortex, a cortical region thought to sustain maintenance processes in short-term memory through oscillatory brain activity in the beta range. We showed a frequency-specific effect of beta-tACS that robustly increased the forward memory span of young, but not middle-aged, healthy individuals. The effect correlated with age: the younger the subjects, the greater the benefit arising from parietal beta stimulation. Our results provide evidence of a short-term memory capacity improvement in young adults by online frequency-specific tACS application. Copyright © 2016 the American Physiological Society.

  11. Short-term prediction towards the 21st century

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Torben Skov; Joensen, Alfred K.; Madsen, Henrik

    2000-01-01

    A new chapter in the continued and exiting story of short-term prediction has begun! The paper will describe a new project funded by the Dnaisn Ministry of Energy where all the Danish utilities (Elkraft, ELsam, Eltra, and SEAS) will participate. The goal of the project is to develop and implement...... on-line a model combining the RISO and IMM models. This will ensure that the best forecasts are giveen on all prediction horizons form the very short range (o-9 hours) to the very long range (36-48 hours)....

  12. Online National Solar Energy Directory and 2005 Solar Decathlon Product Directory. Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hamm, Julia; Taylor, Mike

    2008-12-31

    The Solar Electric Power Association (SEPA), in partnership with the American Solar Energy Society, developed an online National Solar Energy Directory with clear, comprehensive information on suppliers and purchasing options. The site was originally located at FindSolar.com, but has recently been moved to Find-Solar.org. The original FindSolar.com domain name has been taken by the American Solar Energy Society (a partner in this project) and utilized for a similar but different project. This Find-Solar.org directory offers the rapidly growing base of potential solar customers a simple, straightforward destination to learn about their solar options. Members of the public are able to easily locate contractors in their geographic area and verify companies' qualifications with accurate third-party information. It allows consumers to obtain key information on the economics, incentives, desirability, and workings of a solar energy system, as well as competing quotes from different contractors and reviews from customers they have worked with previously. Find-Solar.org is a means of facilitating the growing public interest in solar power and overcoming a major barrier to widespread development of U.S. solar markets. In addition to the development of Find-Solar.org, SEPA developed a separate online product directory for the 2005 DOE Solar Decathlon to facilitate the communication of information about the energy efficiency and renewable energy products used in each university team's home.

  13. Astronomical observation tasks short-term scheduling using PDDS algorithm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kornilov, M. V.

    2016-07-01

    A concept of the ground-based optical astronomical observation efficiency is considered in this paper. We believe that a telescope efficiency can be increased by properly allocating observation tasks with respect to the current environment state and probability to obtain the data with required properties under the current conditions. An online observations scheduling is assumed to be an essential part for raising the efficiency. The short-term online scheduling is treated as the discrete optimisation problems which are stated using several abstraction levels. The optimisation problems are solved using the parallel depth-bounded discrepancy search (PDDS) algorithm by Moisan et al. (2014). Some aspects of the algorithm performance are discussed. The presented algorithm is a core of open-source chelyabinsk C++ library which is planned to be used at 2.5 m telescope of Sternberg Astronomical Institute of Lomonosov Moscow State University.

  14. Implementation of short-term prediction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Landberg, L.; Joensen, A.; Giebel, G. [and others

    1999-03-01

    This paper will giver a general overview of the results from a EU JOULE funded project (`Implementing short-term prediction at utilities`, JOR3-CT95-0008). Reference will be given to specialised papers where applicable. The goal of the project was to implement wind farm power output prediction systems in operational environments at a number of utilities in Europe. Two models were developed, one by Risoe and one by the Technical University of Denmark (DTU). Both prediction models used HIRLAM predictions from the Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI). (au) EFP-94; EU-JOULE. 11 refs.

  15. Short Term Airing by Natural Ventilation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Heiselberg, Per; Perino, M.

    2010-01-01

    principles is necessary. The present study analyses and presents the results of an experimental evaluation of airing performance in terms of ventilation characteristics, IAQ and thermal comfort. It includes investigations of the consequences of opening time, opening frequency, opening area and expected...... airflow rate, ventilation efficiency, thermal comfort and dynamic temperature conditions. A suitable laboratory test rig was developed to perform extensive experimental analyses of the phenomenon under controlled and repeatable conditions. The results showed that short-term window airing is very effective...... and can provide both acceptable IAQ and thermal comfort conditions in buildings....

  16. Short-term energy outlook, January 1999

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1999-01-01

    The Energy Information Administration (EIA) prepares the Short-Term Energy Outlook (energy supply, demand, and price projections) monthly. The forecast period for this issue of the Outlook extends from January 1999 through December 2000. Data values for the fourth quarter 1998, however, are preliminary EIA estimates (for example, some monthly values for petroleum supply and disposition are derived in part from weekly data reported in EIA`s Weekly Petroleum Status Report) or are calculated from model simulations that use the latest exogenous information available (for example, electricity sales and generation are simulated by using actual weather data). The historical energy data, compiled in the January 1999 version of the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) database, are mostly EIA data regularly published in the Monthly Energy Review, Petroleum Supply Monthly, and other EIA publications. Minor discrepancies between the data in these publications and the historical data in this Outlook are due to independent rounding. The STIFS model is driven principally by three sets of assumptions or inputs: estimates of key macroeconomic variables, world oil price assumptions, and assumptions about the severity of weather. Macroeconomic estimates are produced by DRI/McGraw-Hill but are adjusted by EIA to reflect EIA assumptions about the world price of crude oil, energy product prices, and other assumptions which may affect the macroeconomic outlook. By varying the assumptions, alternative cases are produced by using the STIFS model. 28 figs., 19 tabs.

  17. Short-term energy outlook, July 1998

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1998-07-01

    The Energy Information Administration (EIA) prepares The Short-Term Energy Outlook (energy supply, demand, and price projections) monthly for distribution on the internet at: www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/contents.html. In addition, printed versions of the report are available to subscribers in January, April, July and October. The forecast period for this issue of the Outlook extends from July 1998 through December 1999. Values for second quarter of 1998 data, however, are preliminary EIA estimates (for example, some monthly values for petroleum supply and disposition are derived in part from weekly data reported in EIA`s Weekly Petroleum Status Report) or are calculated from model simulations that use the latest exogenous information available (for example, electricity sales and generation are simulated by using actual weather data). The historical energy data, compiled in the July 1998 version of the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) database, are mostly EIA data regularly published in the Monthly Energy Review, Petroleum Supply Monthly, and other EIA publications. Minor discrepancies between the data in these publications and the historical data in this Outlook are due to independent rounding. 28 figs., 19 tabs.

  18. Short term depression unmasks the ghost frequency.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tjeerd V Olde Scheper

    Full Text Available Short Term Plasticity (STP has been shown to exist extensively in synapses throughout the brain. Its function is more or less clear in the sense that it alters the probability of synaptic transmission at short time scales. However, it is still unclear what effect STP has on the dynamics of neural networks. We show, using a novel dynamic STP model, that Short Term Depression (STD can affect the phase of frequency coded input such that small networks can perform temporal signal summation and determination with high accuracy. We show that this property of STD can readily solve the problem of the ghost frequency, the perceived pitch of a harmonic complex in absence of the base frequency. Additionally, we demonstrate that this property can explain dynamics in larger networks. By means of two models, one of chopper neurons in the Ventral Cochlear Nucleus and one of a cortical microcircuit with inhibitory Martinotti neurons, it is shown that the dynamics in these microcircuits can reliably be reproduced using STP. Our model of STP gives important insights into the potential roles of STP in self-regulation of cortical activity and long-range afferent input in neuronal microcircuits.

  19. Short-term energy outlook, July 1998

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1998-07-01

    The Energy Information Administration (EIA) prepares The Short-Term Energy Outlook (energy supply, demand, and price projections) monthly for distribution on the internet at: www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/contents.html. In addition, printed versions of the report are available to subscribers in January, April, July and October. The forecast period for this issue of the Outlook extends from July 1998 through December 1999. Values for second quarter of 1998 data, however, are preliminary EIA estimates (for example, some monthly values for petroleum supply and disposition are derived in part from weekly data reported in EIA`s Weekly Petroleum Status Report) or are calculated from model simulations that use the latest exogenous information available (for example, electricity sales and generation are simulated by using actual weather data). The historical energy data, compiled in the July 1998 version of the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) database, are mostly EIA data regularly published in the Monthly Energy Review, Petroleum Supply Monthly, and other EIA publications. Minor discrepancies between the data in these publications and the historical data in this Outlook are due to independent rounding. 28 figs., 19 tabs.

  20. Short-term forecasts of district heating load and outdoor temperature by use of on-line connected computers; Korttidsprognoser foer fjaerrvaermelast och utetemperatur med on-linekopplade datorer

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Malmstroem, B.; Ernfors, P.; Nilsson, Daniel; Vallgren, H. [Chalmers Tekniska Hoegskola, Goeteborg (Sweden). Institutionen foer Energiteknik

    1996-10-01

    In this report the available methods for forecasting weather and district heating load have been studied. A forecast method based on neural networks has been tested against the more common statistical methods. The accuracy of the weather forecasts from the SMHI (Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute) has been estimated. In connection with these tests, the possibilities of improving the forecasts by using on-line connected computers has been analysed. The most important results from the study are: Energy company staff generally look upon the forecasting of district heating load as a problem of such a magnitude that computer support is needed. At the companies where computer calculated forecasts are in use, their accuracy is regarded as quite satisfactory; The interest in computer produced load forecasts among energy company staff is increasing; At present, a sufficient number of commercial suppliers of weather forecasts as well as load forecasts is available to fulfill the needs of energy companies; Forecasts based on neural networks did not attain any precision improvement in comparison to more traditional statistical methods. There may though be other types of neural networks, not tested in this study, that are possibly capable of improving the forecast precision; Forecasts of outdoor temperature and district heating load can be significantly improved through the use of on-line-connected computers supplied with instantaneous measurements of temperature and load. This study shows that a general reduction of the load prediction errors by approximately 15% is attainable. For short time horizons (less than 5 hours), more extensive load prediction error reductions can be reached. For the 1-hour time horizon, the possible reduction amounts to up to 50%. 21 refs, 4 figs, 7 appendices

  1. Visual Short-Term Memory Complexity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Thomas Alrik

    Several recent studies have explored the nature and limits of visual short-term memory (VSTM) (e.g. Luck & Vogel, 1997). A general VSTM capacity limit of about 3 to 4 letters has been found, thus confirming results from earlier studies (e.g. Cattell, 1885; Sperling, 1960). However, Alvarez...... and Cavanagh (2004) have raised the question that the capacity of VSTM is dependent on visual complexity rather than the number of objects. We hypothesise that VSTM capacity is dependent on both the objective and subjective complexity of visual stimuli. Contrary to Alvarez and Cavanagh, who argue for the role...... of objective complexity, it seems that subjective complexity - which is dependent on the familiarity of the stimulus - plays a more important role than the objective visual complexity of the objects stored. In two studies, we explored how familiarity influences the capacity of VSTM. 1) In children learning...

  2. Operations Management in Short Term Power Markets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Heide-Jørgensen, Ditte Mølgård

    minutes. The stochastic input is the electricity price modelled as a time inhomogenous Markov chain that the power producer uses to maximise profits. To maintain computational tractability with such high time resolution and stochastics the model is solved with dynamic programming. The two models differ......Electricity market models have often been modelled as deterministic or at most two-stage stochastic models with an hourly time resolution. This thesis looks into possible ways of extending such models and formulating new models to handle both higher time resolution than hourly and stochastics....... The first is an introduction to the background for the work with stochastic electricity market models with a high time resolution. It is followed by three self-contained chapters. The second chapter Short-term balancing of supply and demand in an electricity system: forecasting and scheduling...

  3. In Search of Decay in Verbal Short-Term Memory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berman, Marc G.; Jonides, John; Lewis, Richard L.

    2009-01-01

    Is forgetting in the short term due to decay with the mere passage of time, interference from other memoranda, or both? Past research on short-term memory has revealed some evidence for decay and a plethora of evidence showing that short-term memory is worsened by interference. However, none of these studies has directly contrasted decay and…

  4. Short-Term Saved Leave Scheme

    CERN Multimedia

    HR Department

    2007-01-01

    As announced at the meeting of the Standing Concertation Committee (SCC) on 26 June 2007 and in http://Bulletin No. 28/2007, the existing Saved Leave Scheme will be discontinued as of 31 December 2007. Staff participating in the Scheme will shortly receive a contract amendment stipulating the end of financial contributions compensated by save leave. Leave already accumulated on saved leave accounts can continue to be taken in accordance with the rules applicable to the current scheme. A new system of saved leave will enter into force on 1 January 2008 and will be the subject of a new im-plementation procedure entitled "Short-term saved leave scheme" dated 1 January 2008. At its meeting on 4 December 2007, the SCC agreed to recommend the Director-General to approve this procedure, which can be consulted on the HR Department’s website at the following address: https://cern.ch/hr-services/services-Ben/sls_shortterm.asp All staff wishing to participate in the new scheme ...

  5. Short-Term Saved Leave Scheme

    CERN Multimedia

    2007-01-01

    As announced at the meeting of the Standing Concertation Committee (SCC) on 26 June 2007 and in http://Bulletin No. 28/2007, the existing Saved Leave Scheme will be discontinued as of 31 December 2007. Staff participating in the Scheme will shortly receive a contract amendment stipulating the end of financial contributions compensated by save leave. Leave already accumulated on saved leave accounts can continue to be taken in accordance with the rules applicable to the current scheme. A new system of saved leave will enter into force on 1 January 2008 and will be the subject of a new implementation procedure entitled "Short-term saved leave scheme" dated 1 January 2008. At its meeting on 4 December 2007, the SCC agreed to recommend the Director-General to approve this procedure, which can be consulted on the HR Department’s website at the following address: https://cern.ch/hr-services/services-Ben/sls_shortterm.asp All staff wishing to participate in the new scheme a...

  6. Continuity of Landsat observations: Short term considerations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wulder, M.A.; White, Joanne C.; Masek, J.G.; Dwyer, J.; Roy, D.P.

    2011-01-01

    As of writing in mid-2010, both Landsat-5 and -7 continue to function, with sufficient fuel to enable data collection until the launch of the Landsat Data Continuity Mission (LDCM) scheduled for December of 2012. Failure of one or both of Landsat-5 or -7 may result in a lack of Landsat data for a period of time until the 2012 launch. Although the potential risk of a component failure increases the longer the sensor's design life is exceeded, the possible gap in Landsat data acquisition is reduced with each passing day and the risk of Landsat imagery being unavailable diminishes for all except a handful of applications that are particularly data demanding. Advances in Landsat data compositing and fusion are providing opportunities to address issues associated with Landsat-7 SLC-off imagery and to mitigate a potential acquisition gap through the integration of imagery from different sensors. The latter will likely also provide short-term, regional solutions to application-specific needs for the continuity of Landsat-like observations. Our goal in this communication is not to minimize the community's concerns regarding a gap in Landsat observations, but rather to clarify how the current situation has evolved and provide an up-to-date understanding of the circumstances, implications, and mitigation options related to a potential gap in the Landsat data record. ?? 2010.

  7. Short-term energy outlook, April 1999

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1999-04-01

    The forecast period for this issue of the Outlook extends from April 1999 through December 2000. Data values for the first quarter 1999, however, are preliminary EIA estimates (for example, some monthly values for petroleum supply and disposition are derived in part from weekly data reported in EIA`s Weekly Petroleum Status Report) or are calculated from model simulations that use the latest exogenous information available (for example, electricity sales and generation are simulated by using actual weather data). The historical energy data, compiled in the April 1999 version of the Short-Term Integrated forecasting system (STIFS) database, are mostly EIA data regularly published in the Monthly Energy Review, Petroleum Supply Monthly, and other EIA publications. Minor discrepancies between the data in these publications and the historical data in this Outlook are due to independent rounding. The STIFS model is driven principally by three sets of assumptions or inputs: estimates of key macroeconomic variables, world oil price assumptions, and assumptions about the severity of weather. Macroeconomic estimates are produced by DRI/McGraw-Hill but are adjusted by EIA to reflect EIA assumptions about the world price of crude oil, energy product prices, and other assumptions which may affect the macroeconomic outlook. By varying the assumptions, alternative cases are produced by using the STIFS model. 25 figs., 19 tabs.

  8. Short-term GNSS satellite clock stability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griggs, E.; Kursinski, E. R.; Akos, D.

    2015-08-01

    Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) clock stability is characterized via the modified Allan deviation using active hydrogen masers as the receiver frequency reference. The high stability of the maser reference allows the GNSS clock contribution to the GNSS carrier phase variance to be determined quite accurately. Satellite clock stability for four different GNSS constellations are presented, highlighting the similarities and differences between the constellations as well as satellite blocks and clock types. Impact on high-rate applications, such as GNSS radio occultation (RO), is assessed through the calculation of the maximum carrier phase error due to clock instability. White phase noise appears to dominate at subsecond time scales. However, while we derived the theoretical contribution of white phase modulation to the modified Allan deviation, our analysis of the GNSS satellite clocks was limited to 1-200 s time scales because of inconsistencies between the subsecond results from the commercial and software-defined receivers. The rubidium frequency standards on board the Global Positioning System (GPS) Block IIF, BeiDou, and Galileo satellites show improved stability results in comparison to previous GPS blocks for time scales relevant to RO. The Globalnaya Navigatsionnaya Sputnikovaya Sistema (GLONASS) satellites are the least stable of the GNSS constellations in the short term and will need high-rate corrections to produce RO results comparable to those from the other GNSS constellations.

  9. Spatiotemporal Proximity Effects in Visual Short-Term Memory Examined by Target-Nontarget Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sapkota, Raju P.; Pardhan, Shahina; van der Linde, Ian

    2016-01-01

    Visual short-term memory (VSTM) is a limited-capacity system that holds a small number of objects online simultaneously, implying that competition for limited storage resources occurs (Phillips, 1974). How the spatial and temporal proximity of stimuli affects this competition is unclear. In this 2-experiment study, we examined the effect of the…

  10. Short-term and long-term deflection of reinforced hollow core ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Short-term and long-term deflection of reinforced hollow core concrete slab systems. ... AFRICAN JOURNALS ONLINE (AJOL) · Journals · Advanced Search ... For the prediction of the long-term deflection, a measured ratio of long-term ...

  11. Confined placental mosaicism in short term culture

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Petrović Bojana

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Finding of fetal chromosomal mosaicism complicates genetic counseling, as well as pregnancy management. The aim of this study was to determine the risk of confined placental mosaicism in short term culture of chorionic villous samples. We conducted a retrospective review of karyotype analysis results obtained after chorionic villous sampling (CVS in two years period. A 420 samples of chorionic villi were taken transabdominally and obtained by a semidirect method (overnight incubating culture. All fetuses with CVS mosaicism were under the intensive perinatal care. In all cases of chromosome mosaicism the additional karyotyping was performed from fetal blood samples after 22nd gestational week in order to exclude true fetal mosaicism. After delivery newborns were examined by experienced pediatrician. From 420 analyzed samples in 11 (2,6% cases we found placental mosaicism. No anomalies were seen in genetic sonogram of this fetuses and mosaicism was confirmed only in one case. Confined placental mosaicism (CPM was found in 2,1% (9/420 of all analyzed cases, and it made 90% of all placental mosaicism. In 60% (6/10 of placental mosaicism cases we found mosaicism with single aberrant cell. Trisomy 21 mosaicism was the most frequent aberration found in 30% of cases. Finding of mosaicism in chorionic villi sample is at special importance for genetic counseling, because every case has to be reveled individually regarding the type and level of mosaicism. Anyway, in every case of placental mosaicism intensive antenatal monitoring is necessary, with additional chromosome analysis from different tissue in consideration of previous findings.

  12. Advancement and prospect of short-term numerical climate prediction

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2001-01-01

    The defects of present methods of short-term numerical climate prediction are discussed in this paper, and four challenging problems are put forward. Considering our under developed computer conditions, we should innovate in the approcuch of numerical climate prediction on the basis of our own achievements and experiences in the field of short-term numerical climate prediction. It is possibly an effective way to settle the present defects of short-term numerical climate prediction.``

  13. The Domestic Market for Short-term Debt Securities

    OpenAIRE

    Matthew Boge; Ian Wilson

    2011-01-01

    The market for short-term debt is dominated by the issuance of bank securities. Yields on these securities act as an important reference rate within the financial system. The turmoil in global markets during recent years has led to significant changes in the short-term debt market as the funding profiles of banks and other issuers of short-term securities has altered.

  14. Short-Term Memory and Aphasia: From Theory to Treatment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Minkina, Irene; Rosenberg, Samantha; Kalinyak-Fliszar, Michelene; Martin, Nadine

    2017-02-01

    This article reviews existing research on the interactions between verbal short-term memory and language processing impairments in aphasia. Theoretical models of short-term memory are reviewed, starting with a model assuming a separation between short-term memory and language, and progressing to models that view verbal short-term memory as a cognitive requirement of language processing. The review highlights a verbal short-term memory model derived from an interactive activation model of word retrieval. This model holds that verbal short-term memory encompasses the temporary activation of linguistic knowledge (e.g., semantic, lexical, and phonological features) during language production and comprehension tasks. Empirical evidence supporting this model, which views short-term memory in the context of the processes it subserves, is outlined. Studies that use a classic measure of verbal short-term memory (i.e., number of words/digits correctly recalled in immediate serial recall) as well as those that use more intricate measures (e.g., serial position effects in immediate serial recall) are discussed. Treatment research that uses verbal short-term memory tasks in an attempt to improve language processing is then summarized, with a particular focus on word retrieval. A discussion of the limitations of current research and possible future directions concludes the review. Thieme Medical Publishers 333 Seventh Avenue, New York, NY 10001, USA.

  15. Short-term wind power prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Joensen, Alfred K.

    2003-01-01

    The present thesis consists of 10 research papers published during the period 1997-2002 together with a summary report. The objective of the work described in the thesis is to develop models and methods for calculation of high accuracy predictions of wind power generated electricity......, and to implement these models and methods in an on-line software application. The economical value of having predictions available is also briefly considered. The summary report outlines the background and motivation for developing wind power prediction models. The meteorological theory which is relevant...... for the thesis is outlined and the background for the models and methods which are proposed in the various papers is described. The software system, Zephyr, which has been developed is also described in the summary report. The main part of the papers have been written in conjunction with two research projects...

  16. Short-term Memory Training in Listening Comprehension

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    李一菡

    2015-01-01

    Listening comprehension is a basic skill in English learning.Here,we will talk about the relationship between the short-term memory and listening comprehension, and try to find the way of the short-term memory training to improve the skill of the students in middle school.

  17. Pediatric polytrauma : Short-term and long-term outcomes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    vanderSluis, CK; Kingma, J; Eisma, WH; tenDuis, HJ

    1997-01-01

    Objective: To assess the short-term and long-term outcomes of pediatric polytrauma patients and to analyze the extent to which short-term outcomes can predict long-term outcomes. Materials and Methods: Ail pediatric polytrauma patients (Injury Severity Score of greater than or equal to 16, less than

  18. 75 FR 58285 - Short-Term, Small Amount Loans

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-09-24

    ... Part 701 RIN 3133-AD71 Short-Term, Small Amount Loans Agency: National Credit Union Administration... unions (FCUs) to offer short-term, small amount loans (STS loans) as a viable alternative to predatory payday loans. The amendment permits FCUs to charge a higher interest rate for an STS loan than is...

  19. 22 CFR 62.21 - Short-term scholars.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 22 Foreign Relations 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Short-term scholars. 62.21 Section 62.21 Foreign Relations DEPARTMENT OF STATE PUBLIC DIPLOMACY AND EXCHANGES EXCHANGE VISITOR PROGRAM Specific Program Provisions § 62.21 Short-term scholars. (a) Introduction. These regulations govern scholars...

  20. Short-Term Robustness of Production Management Systems : New Methodology

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kleijnen, J.P.C.; Gaury, E.G.A.

    2000-01-01

    This paper investigates the short-term robustness of production planning and control systems. This robustness is defined here as the systems ability to maintain short-term service probabilities (i.e., the probability that the fill rate remains within a prespecified range), in a variety of environmen

  1. Short-term growth in asthmatic children using fluticasone propionate

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Visser, MJ; van Aalderen, WMC; Elliott, BM; Odink, RJ; Brand, PLP

    1998-01-01

    Background: Inhaled corticosteroids may reduce short-term growth velocity in asthmatic children and knemometry is the most sensitive tool to detect this short-term growth suppression. Study objective: To compare lower leg growth velocity, as measured by knemometry, in asthmatic children during and a

  2. Comparison of Sugammadex and Neostigmine in Short Term Surgery

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fatih Koc

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Aim: This study compared the efficacy and cost effectivines of sugammadex and neostigmine for reversal of neuromuscular blockade induced by rocuronium for short term elective surgery. Material and Method: After written informed consent, 33 patients aged 18%u201365, ASA I-III, who were undergoing short term surgery (

  3. Short-term energy outlook annual supplement, 1993

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1993-08-06

    The Short-Term Energy Outlook Annual Supplement (supplement) is published once a year as a complement to the Short-Term Energy Outlook (Outlook), Quarterly Projections. The purpose of the Supplement is to review the accuracy of the forecasts published in the Outlook, make comparisons with other independent energy forecasts, and examine current energy topics that affect the forecasts.

  4. A new ensemble model for short term wind power prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Henrik; Albu, Razvan-Daniel; Felea, Ioan

    2012-01-01

    As the objective of this study, a non-linear ensemble system is used to develop a new model for predicting wind speed in short-term time scale. Short-term wind power prediction becomes an extremely important field of research for the energy sector. Regardless of the recent advancements in the re-search...

  5. Short-Term Robustness of Production Management Systems : New Methodology

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kleijnen, J.P.C.; Gaury, E.G.A.

    2000-01-01

    This paper investigates the short-term robustness of production planning and control systems. This robustness is defined here as the systems ability to maintain short-term service probabilities (i.e., the probability that the fill rate remains within a prespecified range), in a variety of

  6. The mind and brain of short-term memory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jonides, John; Lewis, Richard L; Nee, Derek Evan; Lustig, Cindy A; Berman, Marc G; Moore, Katherine Sledge

    2008-01-01

    The past 10 years have brought near-revolutionary changes in psychological theories about short-term memory, with similarly great advances in the neurosciences. Here, we critically examine the major psychological theories (the "mind") of short-term memory and how they relate to evidence about underlying brain mechanisms. We focus on three features that must be addressed by any satisfactory theory of short-term memory. First, we examine the evidence for the architecture of short-term memory, with special attention to questions of capacity and how--or whether--short-term memory can be separated from long-term memory. Second, we ask how the components of that architecture enact processes of encoding, maintenance, and retrieval. Third, we describe the debate over the reason about forgetting from short-term memory, whether interference or decay is the cause. We close with a conceptual model tracing the representation of a single item through a short-term memory task, describing the biological mechanisms that might support psychological processes on a moment-by-moment basis as an item is encoded, maintained over a delay with some forgetting, and ultimately retrieved.

  7. Analog VLSI Circuits for Short-Term Dynamic Synapses

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shih-Chii Liu

    2003-06-01

    Full Text Available Short-term dynamical synapses increase the computational power of neuronal networks. These synapses act as additional filters to the inputs of a neuron before the subsequent integration of these signals at its cell body. In this work, we describe a model of depressing and facilitating synapses derived from a hardware circuit implementation. This model is equivalent to theoretical models of short-term synaptic dynamics in network simulations. These circuits have been added to a network of leaky integrate-and-fire neurons. A cortical model of direction-selectivity that uses short-term dynamic synapses has been implemented with this network.

  8. Concussion Can Spur Short-Term Change in Women's Periods

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... page: https://medlineplus.gov/news/fullstory_167006.html Concussion Can Spur Short-Term Change in Women's Periods ... MONDAY, July 3, 2017 (HealthDay News) -- After a concussion, a young woman might notice that her next ...

  9. Short term variations in particulate matter in Mahi river estuary

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Bhosle, N.B.; Rokade, M.A.; Zingde, M.D.

    The particulate matter (PM) collected from Mahi River Estuary was analysed for organic carbon (POC), nitrogen (PON), and chlorophyll a (Chl a). The concentration of PM, POC, PON and Chl a showed short term variations. Average surface concentration...

  10. Short term results of pterygium surgery with adjunctive amniotic ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2012-11-30

    Nov 30, 2012 ... Conclusion: Short term results suggests that adjunctive amniotic membrane transplant with pterygium excision is ... recurrence rate of 7% and 12.1% respectively with ..... Source of Support: Nil, Conflict of Interest: None declared.

  11. Short-term incentive schemes for hospital managers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lucas Malambe

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Orientation: Short-term incentives, considered to be an extrinsic motivation, are commonly used to motivate performance. This study explored hospital managers’ perceptions of short term incentives in maximising performance and retention.Research purpose: The study explored the experiences, views and perceptions of private hospital managers in South Africa regarding the use of short-term incentives to maximise performance and retention, as well as the applicability of the findings to public hospitals.Motivation for the study: Whilst there is an established link between performance reward schemes and organisational performance, there is little understanding of the effects of short term incentives on the performance and retention of hospital managers within the South African context.Research design, approach, and method: The study used a qualitative research design: interviews were conducted with a purposive sample of 19 hospital managers, and a thematic content analysis was performed.Main findings: Short-term incentives may not be the primary motivator for hospital managers, but they do play a critical role in sustaining motivation. Participants indicated that these schemes could also be applicable to public hospitals.Practical/managerial implications: Hospital managers are inclined to be more motivated by intrinsic than extrinsic factors. However, hospital managers (as middle managers also seem to be motivated by short-term incentives. A combination of intrinsic and extrinsic motivators should thus be used to maximise performance and retention.Contribution/value-add: Whilst the study sought to explore hospital managers’ perceptions of short-term incentives, it also found that an adequate balance between internal and external motivators is key to implementing an effective short-term incentive scheme.

  12. Encephalopathy and vestibulopathy following short-term hydrocarbon exposure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hodgson, M J; Furman, J; Ryan, C; Durrant, J; Kern, E

    1989-01-01

    Dizziness, headaches, and weakness occurred among three men after short-term hydrocarbon exposure during improper welding procedures in a closed container. Symptoms were related to objective evidence of vestibular and cognitive dysfunction. Symptoms and abnormal test results persisted for 6 to 18 months. Simulation of the accident failed to demonstrate likely exposures except aliphatic hydrocarbons, well within the permissible exposure levels. Short-term exposures to neurotoxins may lead to long-term central nervous system abnormalities.

  13. Short-term memory and dual task performance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Regan, J. E.

    1982-01-01

    Two hypotheses concerning the way in which short-term memory interacts with another task in a dual task situation are considered. It is noted that when two tasks are combined, the activity of controlling and organizing performance on both tasks simultaneously may compete with either task for a resource; this resource may be space in a central mechanism or general processing capacity or it may be some task-specific resource. If a special relationship exists between short-term memory and control, especially if there is an identity relationship between short-term and a central controlling mechanism, then short-term memory performance should show a decrement in a dual task situation. Even if short-term memory does not have any particular identity with a controlling mechanism, but both tasks draw on some common resource or resources, then a tradeoff between the two tasks in allocating resources is possible and could be reflected in performance. The persistent concurrence cost in memory performance in these experiments suggests that short-term memory may have a unique status in the information processing system.

  14. MONITORING SHORT-TERM COSMIC-RAY SPECTRAL VARIATIONS USING NEUTRON MONITOR TIME-DELAY MEASUREMENTS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ruffolo, D.; Sáiz, A.; Mangeard, P.-S.; Kamyan, N.; Muangha, P. [Department of Physics, Faculty of Science, Mahidol University, Bangkok 10400 (Thailand); Nutaro, T.; Rujiwarodom, M.; Tooprakai, P. [Thailand Center of Excellence in Physics, CHE, Ministry of Education, Bangkok 10400 (Thailand); Sumran, S.; Chaiwattana, C.; Gasiprong, N.; Channok, C.; Wuttiya, C. [Department of Physics, Faculty of Science, Ubon Ratchathani University, Ubon Ratchathani 34190 (Thailand); Asavapibhop, B. [Department of Physics, Faculty of Science, Chulalongkorn University, Bangkok 10330 (Thailand); Bieber, J. W.; Clem, J.; Evenson, P. [Bartol Research Institute, Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Delaware, Newark, DE 19716 (United States); Munakata, K., E-mail: david.ruf@mahidol.ac.th [Physics Department, Shinshu University, Matsumoto, Nagano 390-8621 (Japan)

    2016-01-20

    Neutron monitors (NMs) are ground-based detectors of cosmic-ray showers that are widely used for high-precision monitoring of changes in the Galactic cosmic-ray (GCR) flux due to solar storms and solar wind variations. In the present work, we show that a single neutron monitor station can also monitor short-term changes in the GCR spectrum, avoiding the systematic uncertainties in comparing data from different stations, by means of NM time-delay histograms. Using data for 2007–2014 from the Princess Sirindhorn Neutron Monitor, a station at Doi Inthanon, Thailand, with the world’s highest vertical geomagnetic cutoff rigidity of 16.8 GV, we have developed an analysis of time-delay histograms that removes the chance coincidences that can dominate conventional measures of multiplicity. We infer the “leader fraction” L of neutron counts that do not follow a previous neutron count in the same counter from the same atmospheric secondary, which is inversely related to the actual multiplicity and increases for increasing GCR spectral index. After correction for atmospheric pressure and water vapor, we find that L indicates substantial short-term GCR spectral hardening during some but not all Forbush decreases in GCR flux due to solar storms. Such spectral data from Doi Inthanon provide information about cosmic-ray energies beyond the Earth’s maximum geomagnetic cutoff, extending the reach of the worldwide NM network and opening a new avenue in the study of short-term GCR decreases.

  15. Monitoring Short-term Cosmic-ray Spectral Variations Using Neutron Monitor Time-delay Measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruffolo, D.; Sáiz, A.; Mangeard, P.-S.; Kamyan, N.; Muangha, P.; Nutaro, T.; Sumran, S.; Chaiwattana, C.; Gasiprong, N.; Channok, C.; Wuttiya, C.; Rujiwarodom, M.; Tooprakai, P.; Asavapibhop, B.; Bieber, J. W.; Clem, J.; Evenson, P.; Munakata, K.

    2016-01-01

    Neutron monitors (NMs) are ground-based detectors of cosmic-ray showers that are widely used for high-precision monitoring of changes in the Galactic cosmic-ray (GCR) flux due to solar storms and solar wind variations. In the present work, we show that a single neutron monitor station can also monitor short-term changes in the GCR spectrum, avoiding the systematic uncertainties in comparing data from different stations, by means of NM time-delay histograms. Using data for 2007-2014 from the Princess Sirindhorn Neutron Monitor, a station at Doi Inthanon, Thailand, with the world’s highest vertical geomagnetic cutoff rigidity of 16.8 GV, we have developed an analysis of time-delay histograms that removes the chance coincidences that can dominate conventional measures of multiplicity. We infer the “leader fraction” L of neutron counts that do not follow a previous neutron count in the same counter from the same atmospheric secondary, which is inversely related to the actual multiplicity and increases for increasing GCR spectral index. After correction for atmospheric pressure and water vapor, we find that L indicates substantial short-term GCR spectral hardening during some but not all Forbush decreases in GCR flux due to solar storms. Such spectral data from Doi Inthanon provide information about cosmic-ray energies beyond the Earth’s maximum geomagnetic cutoff, extending the reach of the worldwide NM network and opening a new avenue in the study of short-term GCR decreases.

  16. The functional neuroanatomy of multitasking: combining dual tasking with a short term memory task.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deprez, Sabine; Vandenbulcke, Mathieu; Peeters, Ron; Emsell, Louise; Amant, Frederic; Sunaert, Stefan

    2013-09-01

    Insight into the neural architecture of multitasking is crucial when investigating the pathophysiology of multitasking deficits in clinical populations. Presently, little is known about how the brain combines dual-tasking with a concurrent short-term memory task, despite the relevance of this mental operation in daily life and the frequency of complaints related to this process, in disease. In this study we aimed to examine how the brain responds when a memory task is added to dual-tasking. Thirty-three right-handed healthy volunteers (20 females, mean age 39.9 ± 5.8) were examined with functional brain imaging (fMRI). The paradigm consisted of two cross-modal single tasks (a visual and auditory temporal same-different task with short delay), a dual-task combining both single tasks simultaneously and a multi-task condition, combining the dual-task with an additional short-term memory task (temporal same-different visual task with long delay). Dual-tasking compared to both individual visual and auditory single tasks activated a predominantly right-sided fronto-parietal network and the cerebellum. When adding the additional short-term memory task, a larger and more bilateral frontoparietal network was recruited. We found enhanced activity during multitasking in components of the network that were already involved in dual-tasking, suggesting increased working memory demands, as well as recruitment of multitask-specific components including areas that are likely to be involved in online holding of visual stimuli in short-term memory such as occipito-temporal cortex. These results confirm concurrent neural processing of a visual short-term memory task during dual-tasking and provide evidence for an effective fMRI multitasking paradigm. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Impaired short-term memory for pitch in congenital amusia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tillmann, Barbara; Lévêque, Yohana; Fornoni, Lesly; Albouy, Philippe; Caclin, Anne

    2016-06-01

    Congenital amusia is a neuro-developmental disorder of music perception and production. The hypothesis is that the musical deficits arise from altered pitch processing, with impairments in pitch discrimination (i.e., pitch change detection, pitch direction discrimination and identification) and short-term memory. The present review article focuses on the deficit of short-term memory for pitch. Overall, the data discussed here suggest impairments at each level of processing in short-term memory tasks; starting with the encoding of the pitch information and the creation of the adequate memory trace, the retention of the pitch traces over time as well as the recollection and comparison of the stored information with newly incoming information. These impairments have been related to altered brain responses in a distributed fronto-temporal network, associated with decreased connectivity between these structures, as well as in abnormalities in the connectivity between the two auditory cortices. In contrast, amusic participants׳ short-term memory abilities for verbal material are preserved. These findings show that short-term memory deficits in congenital amusia are specific to pitch, suggesting a pitch-memory system that is, at least partly, separated from verbal memory. This article is part of a Special Issue entitled SI: Auditory working memory. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  18. Holding Multiple Items in Short Term Memory: A Neural Mechanism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rolls, Edmund T.; Dempere-Marco, Laura; Deco, Gustavo

    2013-01-01

    Human short term memory has a capacity of several items maintained simultaneously. We show how the number of short term memory representations that an attractor network modeling a cortical local network can simultaneously maintain active is increased by using synaptic facilitation of the type found in the prefrontal cortex. We have been able to maintain 9 short term memories active simultaneously in integrate-and-fire simulations where the proportion of neurons in each population, the sparseness, is 0.1, and have confirmed the stability of such a system with mean field analyses. Without synaptic facilitation the system can maintain many fewer memories active in the same network. The system operates because of the effectively increased synaptic strengths formed by the synaptic facilitation just for those pools to which the cue is applied, and then maintenance of this synaptic facilitation in just those pools when the cue is removed by the continuing neuronal firing in those pools. The findings have implications for understanding how several items can be maintained simultaneously in short term memory, how this may be relevant to the implementation of language in the brain, and suggest new approaches to understanding and treating the decline in short term memory that can occur with normal aging. PMID:23613789

  19. Asymmetric features of short-term blood pressure variability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guzik, Przemyslaw; Piskorski, Jaroslaw; Krauze, Tomasz; Narkiewicz, Krzysztof; Wykretowicz, Andrzej; Wysocki, Henryk

    2010-11-01

    Prolongations of cardiac cycles have a significantly larger contribution to short-term heart rate variability than shortenings--this is called heart rate asymmetry. Our aim is to establish the existence of blood pressure asymmetry phenomenon, which has not been done so far. We used 30-min resting continuous recordings of finger pressure waveforms from 227 healthy young volunteers (19-31 years old; 97 female), and performed Poincaré plot analysis of systolic blood pressure (SBP) to quantify the effect. Median contribution of SBP increases (C(i)) to short-term blood pressure variability was 52.8% (inter-quartile range: 50.9-55.1%) and median number of SBP increases (N(i)) was 48.8% (inter-quartile range: 47.2-50.1%). The C(i)>50% was found in 82% (P<0.0001; binomial test) and N(i)<50% in 75% (P<0.0001) of the subjects. Although SBP increases are significantly less abundant than reductions, their contribution to short-term blood pressure variability is significantly larger, which means that short-term blood pressure variability is asymmetric. SBP increases and reductions have unequal contribution to short-term blood pressure variability at supine rest in young healthy people. As this asymmetric behavior of blood pressure variability is present in most of the healthy studied people at rest, it can be concluded that blood pressure asymmetry is a physiological phenomenon.

  20. Why do short term workers have high mortality?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kolstad, Henrik; Olsen, Jørn

    1999-01-01

    Increased mortality is often reported among workers in short term employment. This may indicate either a health-related selection process or the presence of different lifestyle or social conditions among short term workers. The authors studied these two aspects of short term employment among 16......,404 Danish workers in the reinforced plastics industry who were hired between 1978 and 1985 and were followed to the end of 1988. Preemployment hospitalization histories for 1977-1984 were ascertained and were related to length of employment between 1978 and 1988. Workers who had been hospitalized prior...... to employment showed a 20% higher risk of early termination of employment than those never hospitalized (rate ratio (RR) = 1.20, 95% confidence interval (Cl) 1.16-1.29), and the risk increased with number of hospitalizations. For workers with two or more preemployment hospitalizations related to alcohol abuse...

  1. Short-Termed Integrated Forecasting System: 1993 Model documentation report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1993-05-01

    The purpose of this report is to define the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) and describe its basic properties. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the US Energy Department (DOE) developed the STIFS model to generate short-term (up to 8 quarters), monthly forecasts of US supplies, demands, imports exports, stocks, and prices of various forms of energy. The models that constitute STIFS generate forecasts for a wide range of possible scenarios, including the following ones done routinely on a quarterly basis: A base (mid) world oil price and medium economic growth. A low world oil price and high economic growth. A high world oil price and low economic growth. This report is written for persons who want to know how short-term energy markets forecasts are produced by EIA. The report is intended as a reference document for model analysts, users, and the public.

  2. The epidemiology of long- and short-term cancer survivors

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jarlbæk, Lene; Christensen, Linda; Bruera, Eduardo;

    2014-01-01

    Introduction. In this study, we present data from a population-based cohort of incident cancer patients separated in long- and short-term survivors. Our aim was to procure denominators for use in the planning of rehabilitation and palliative care programs. Material and methods. A registry......-linkage cohort study. All cancer patients, diagnosed from 1993 to 2003 from a 470 000 large population, were followed individually from diagnosis to death or until 31 December 2008. Long-term survivors lived five years or more after the time of the cancer diagnosis (TOCD). Short-term survivors died less than...... five years after TOCD. Results. The cohort comprised 24 162 incident cancer patients with 41% long-term survivors (N = 9813). Seventy percent of the cohort was 60 + years at TOCD. The 14 349 short-term survivors' median survival was 0.6 year, and 78% died less than two years after TOCD. A 12 years...

  3. Short-term and working memory impairments in aphasia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Potagas, Constantin; Kasselimis, Dimitrios; Evdokimidis, Ioannis

    2011-08-01

    The aim of the present study is to investigate short-term memory and working memory deficits in aphasics in relation to the severity of their language impairment. Fifty-eight aphasic patients participated in this study. Based on language assessment, an aphasia score was calculated for each patient. Memory was assessed in two modalities, verbal and spatial. Mean scores for all memory tasks were lower than normal. Aphasia score was significantly correlated with performance on all memory tasks. Correlation coefficients for short-term memory and working memory were approximately of the same magnitude. According to our findings, severity of aphasia is related with both verbal and spatial memory deficits. Moreover, while aphasia score correlated with lower scores in both short-term memory and working memory tasks, the lack of substantial difference between corresponding correlation coefficients suggests a possible primary deficit in information retention rather than impairment in working memory. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. The pedagogy of Short-Term Study-Abroad Programs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jude Gonsalvez

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available This paper focuses on establishing guidelines on the pedagogy of short term study abroad programs. This study follows 33 students who participated in a short-term study-abroad program to India with the researcher from 2006 through 2011. The study relies heavily on the student reflections and expressions as they experienced them. It is qualitative in nature. Focus groups were the main method of data collection, where participants were invited to reflect, express, and share their experiences with one another. This provided an opportunity for the participants to come together, relive their experiences, and help provide information as to how and what type of an influence this short-term study-abroad program provided.

  5. Short-Termed Integrated Forecasting System: 1993 Model documentation report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1993-05-01

    The purpose of this report is to define the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) and describe its basic properties. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the US Energy Department (DOE) developed the STIFS model to generate short-term (up to 8 quarters), monthly forecasts of US supplies, demands, imports exports, stocks, and prices of various forms of energy. The models that constitute STIFS generate forecasts for a wide range of possible scenarios, including the following ones done routinely on a quarterly basis: A base (mid) world oil price and medium economic growth. A low world oil price and high economic growth. A high world oil price and low economic growth. This report is written for persons who want to know how short-term energy markets forecasts are produced by EIA. The report is intended as a reference document for model analysts, users, and the public.

  6. Least squares support vector machine for short-term prediction of meteorological time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mellit, A.; Pavan, A. Massi; Benghanem, M.

    2013-01-01

    The prediction of meteorological time series plays very important role in several fields. In this paper, an application of least squares support vector machine (LS-SVM) for short-term prediction of meteorological time series (e.g. solar irradiation, air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, wind direction and pressure) is presented. In order to check the generalization capability of the LS-SVM approach, a K-fold cross-validation and Kolmogorov-Smirnov test have been carried out. A comparison between LS-SVM and different artificial neural network (ANN) architectures (recurrent neural network, multi-layered perceptron, radial basis function and probabilistic neural network) is presented and discussed. The comparison showed that the LS-SVM produced significantly better results than ANN architectures. It also indicates that LS-SVM provides promising results for short-term prediction of meteorological data.

  7. Auditory short-term memory activation during score reading

    OpenAIRE

    Simoens, Veerle L; Mari Tervaniemi

    2013-01-01

    Performing music on the basis of reading a score requires reading ahead of what is being played in order to anticipate the necessary actions to produce the notes. Score reading thus not only involves the decoding of a visual score and the comparison to the auditory feedback, but also short-term storage of the musical information due to the delay of the auditory feedback during reading ahead. This study investigates the mechanisms of encoding of musical information in short-term memory during ...

  8. AR-based Algorithms for Short Term Load Forecast

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zuhairi Baharudin

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available Short-term load forecast plays an important role in planning and operation of power systems. The accuracy of the forecast value is necessary for economically efficient operation and effective control of the plant. This study describes the methods of Autoregressive (AR Burg’s and Modified Covariance (MCOV in solving the short term load forecast. Both algorithms are tested with power load data from Malaysian grid and New South Wales, Australia. The forecast accuracy is assessed in terms of their errors. For the comparison the algorithms are tested and benchmark with the previous successful proposed methods.

  9. Short-term Effects of Gamma Ray Bursts on Earth

    OpenAIRE

    2009-01-01

    The aim of the present work is to study the potential short-term atmospheric and biospheric influence of Gamma Ray Bursts on the Earth. We focus in the ultraviolet flash at the planet's surface, which occurs as a result of the retransmission of the $\\gamma$ radiation through the atmosphere. This would be the only important short-term effect on life. We mostly consider Archean and Proterozoic eons, and for completeness we also comment on the Phanerozoic. Therefore, in our study we consider atm...

  10. A short-term group with drug users in prison

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roberta Campo

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available This article describes a short term group, according to the viewpoint of group analysis theory. The experience was made in the prison of Sicily. The group was composed by prisoners in the protected area with issues of addiction. The article highlights the usefulness of a work on the Motivation to change through the device of the group. Furthermore, it underlines how much of the work in this context was to encourage participants in the transition to reflection, critical to work on yourself. We walk through fragments of sessions, those were the main themes emerged: the relationship, responsibility, guilt, punishment.Keywords: Addiction, Motivation to change, Short-term group

  11. Predicting short-term stock fluctuations by using processing fluency

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alter, Adam L.; Oppenheimer, Daniel M.

    2006-01-01

    Three studies investigated the impact of the psychological principle of fluency (that people tend to prefer easily processed information) on short-term share price movements. In both a laboratory study and two analyses of naturalistic real-world stock market data, fluently named stocks robustly outperformed stocks with disfluent names in the short term. For example, in one study, an initial investment of $1,000 yielded a profit of $112 more after 1 day of trading for a basket of fluently named shares than for a basket of disfluently named shares. These results imply that simple, cognitive approaches to modeling human behavior sometimes outperform more typical, complex alternatives. PMID:16754871

  12. 77 FR 61229 - Short-Term Investment Funds

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-10-09

    ... resilience of STIFs to credit and liquidity events while not unduly restricting a bank's ability to invest... liquidity or valuation stress. \\29\\ See Interagency Policy on Banks/Thrifts Providing Financial Support to... revises the requirements imposed on national banks pursuant to the OCC's short-term investment fund...

  13. 47 CFR 74.24 - Short-term operation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... in subparts D, E, F and H of this part, except wireless video assist devices, may be operated on a... notification provision shall not apply where an unanticipated need for immediate short-term mobile station... guidelines, which will be provided by Cornell University. In addition, the applicant shall indicate in...

  14. Short-Term Memory, Executive Control, and Children's Route Learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Purser, Harry R. M.; Farran, Emily K.; Courbois, Yannick; Lemahieu, Axelle; Mellier, Daniel; Sockeel, Pascal; Blades, Mark

    2012-01-01

    The aim of this study was to investigate route-learning ability in 67 children aged 5 to 11 years and to relate route-learning performance to the components of Baddeley's model of working memory. Children carried out tasks that included measures of verbal and visuospatial short-term memory and executive control and also measures of verbal and…

  15. Short-term outcomes following laparoscopic resection for colon cancer.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Kavanagh, Dara O

    2011-03-01

    Laparoscopic resection for colon cancer has been proven to have a similar oncological efficacy compared to open resection. Despite this, it is performed by a minority of colorectal surgeons. The aim of our study was to evaluate the short-term clinical, oncological and survival outcomes in all patients undergoing laparoscopic resection for colon cancer.

  16. Climax spent fuel dosimetry. Short term exposure, 8 March 1983

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Quam, W.; DeVore, T.

    1984-06-01

    The second short-term exposure (performed 8 March 1983) in Hole CFH3 at the Climax Spent Fuel Test site is described. These short-term (1 hour long) exposures are intended to provide an independent measurement of the exposure rate at the wall and the 0.51-m and 0.66-m locations. Only CaF{sub 2} TLD`s were used in the second short-term exposure. Harshaw chips were cut to 0.32 x 0.18 x 0.09 cm size and aged by several exposure/readout/bakeout cycles until all odd chips were weeded out and the remaining chips exhibited stable sensitivities. Exposure at Climax was done by removing the existing long-term dosimetry strings and inserting identical strings using the CaF{sub 2} TLD`s in the stainless steel holders. The first short-term exposure produced absorbed doses as high as {similar_to}000 rads-LiF. The linearity corrections determined for the CaF{sub 2} TLD`s at these exposure levels were {similar_to}2%. The present post-exposure calibration method used calibration doses very close to those encountered in the field.

  17. Short-Term Effects of Televised Aggression on Children's Behavior.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liebert, Robert M.; Baron, Robert A.

    Recently collected data appear to warrant advancing some tentative conslusions concerning the short-term effects of violence in television on children: 1) children are exposed to a substantial amount of violent content on television, and they can remember and learn from such exposure; 2) correlational studies have disclosed a regular association…

  18. Improving creativity performance by short-term meditation

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-01-01

    Background One form of meditation intervention, the integrative body-mind training (IBMT) has been shown to improve attention, reduce stress and change self-reports of mood. In this paper we examine whether short-term IBMT can improve performance related to creativity and determine the role that mood may play in such improvement. Methods Forty Chinese undergraduates were randomly assigned to short-term IBMT group or a relaxation training (RT) control group. Mood and creativity performance were assessed by the Positive and Negative Affect Schedule (PANAS) and Torrance Tests of Creative Thinking (TTCT) questionnaire respectively. Results As predicted, the results indicated that short-term (30 min per day for 7 days) IBMT improved creativity performance on the divergent thinking task, and yielded better emotional regulation than RT. In addition, cross-lagged analysis indicated that both positive and negative affect may influence creativity in IBMT group (not RT group). Conclusions Our results suggested that emotion-related creativity-promoting mechanism may be attributed to short-term meditation. PMID:24645871

  19. Narcissism and the Strategic Pursuit of Short-Term Mating

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schmitt, David P.; Alcalay, Lidia; Allik, Jüri

    2017-01-01

    associating with key sexual outcomes (e.g., more active pursuit of short-term mating, intimate partner violence, and sexual aggression) and sex-related personality traits (e.g., higher extraversion and openness to experience). Whereas some features of personality (e.g., subjective well-being) were universally...

  20. Orienting attention to objects in visual short-term memory

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dell'Acqua, Roberto; Sessa, Paola; Toffanin, Paolo; Luria, Roy; Joliccoeur, Pierre

    2010-01-01

    We measured electroencephalographic activity during visual search of a target object among objects available to perception or among objects held in visual short-term memory (VSTM). For perceptual search, a single shape was shown first (pre-cue) followed by a search-array and the task was to decide w

  1. Short-Term Energy Outlook: Quarterly projections. Fourth quarter 1993

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1993-11-05

    The Energy Information Administration (EIA) prepares quarterly, short-term energy supply, demand, and price projections for publication in February, May, August, and November in the Short-Term Energy Outlook (Outlook). An annual supplement analyzes the performance of previous forecasts, compares recent cases with those of other forecasting services, and discusses current topics related to the short-term energy markets. (See Short-Term Energy Outlook Annual Supplement, DOE/EIA-0202.) The forecast period for this issue of the Outlook extends from the fourth quarter of 1993 through the fourth quarter of 1994. Values for the third quarter of 1993, however, are preliminary EIA estimates (for example, some monthly values for petroleum supply and disposition are derived in part from weekly data reported in the Weekly Petroleum Status Report) or are calculated from model simulations using the latest exogenous information available (for example, electricity sales and generation are simulated using actual weather data). The historical energy data are EIA data published in the Monthly Energy Review, Petroleum Supply Monthly, and other EIA publications.

  2. SHORT-TERM MEMORY IS INDEPENDENT OF BRAIN PROTEIN SYNTHESIS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Davis, Hasker P.; Rosenzweig, Mark R.; Jones, Oliver W.

    1980-09-01

    Male Swiss albino CD-1 mice given a single injection of a cerebral protein synthesis inhibitor, anisomycin (ANI) (1 mg/animal), 20 min prior to single trial passive avoidance training demonstrated impaired retention at tests given 3 hr, 6 hr, 1 day, and 7 days after training. Retention was not significantly different from saline controls when tests were given 0.5 or 1.5 hr after training. Prolonging inhibition of brain protein synthesis by giving either 1 or 2 additional injections of ANI 2 or 2 and 4 hr after training did not prolong short-term retention performance. The temporal development of impaired retention in ANI treated mice could not be accounted for by drug dosage, duration of protein synthesis inhibition, or nonspecific sickness at test. In contrast to the suggestion that protein synthesis inhibition prolongs short-term memory (Quinton, 1978), the results of this experiment indicate that short-term memory is not prolonged by antibiotic drugs that inhibit cerebral protein synthesis. All evidence seems consistent with the hypothesis that short-term memory is protein synthesis independent and that the establishment of long-term memory depends upon protein synthesis during or shortly after training. Evidence for a role of protein synthesis in memory maintenance is discussed.

  3. Pigeon visual short-term memory directly compared to primates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wright, Anthony A; Elmore, L Caitlin

    2016-02-01

    Three pigeons were trained to remember arrays of 2-6 colored squares and detect which of two squares had changed color to test their visual short-term memory. Procedures (e.g., stimuli, displays, viewing times, delays) were similar to those used to test monkeys and humans. Following extensive training, pigeons performed slightly better than similarly trained monkeys, but both animal species were considerably less accurate than humans with the same array sizes (2, 4 and 6 items). Pigeons and monkeys showed calculated memory capacities of one item or less, whereas humans showed a memory capacity of 2.5 items. Despite the differences in calculated memory capacities, the pigeons' memory results, like those from monkeys and humans, were all well characterized by an inverse power-law function fit to d' values for the five display sizes. This characterization provides a simple, straightforward summary of the fundamental processing of visual short-term memory (how visual short-term memory declines with memory load) that emphasizes species similarities based upon similar functional relationships. By closely matching pigeon testing parameters to those of monkeys and humans, these similar functional relationships suggest similar underlying processes of visual short-term memory in pigeons, monkeys and humans. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  4. The Precategorical Nature of Visual Short-Term Memory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quinlan, Philip T.; Cohen, Dale J.

    2016-01-01

    We conducted a series of recognition experiments that assessed whether visual short-term memory (VSTM) is sensitive to shared category membership of to-be-remembered (tbr) images of common objects. In Experiment 1 some of the tbr items shared the same basic level category (e.g., hand axe): Such items were no better retained than others. In the…

  5. Retrieval-Induced Inhibition in Short-Term Memory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kang, Min-Suk; Choi, Joongrul

    2015-07-01

    We used a visual illusion called motion repulsion as a model system for investigating competition between two mental representations. Subjects were asked to remember two random-dot-motion displays presented in sequence and then to report the motion directions for each. Remembered motion directions were shifted away from the actual motion directions, an effect similar to the motion repulsion observed during perception. More important, the item retrieved second showed greater repulsion than the item retrieved first. This suggests that earlier retrieval exerted greater inhibition on the other item being held in short-term memory. This retrieval-induced motion repulsion could be explained neither by reduced cognitive resources for maintaining short-term memory nor by continued inhibition between short-term memory representations. These results indicate that retrieval of memory representations inhibits other representations in short-term memory. We discuss mechanisms of retrieval-induced inhibition and their implications for the structure of memory. © The Author(s) 2015.

  6. Exogenous Attention Influences Visual Short-Term Memory in Infants

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ross-Sheehy, Shannon; Oakes, Lisa M.; Luck, Steven J.

    2011-01-01

    Two experiments examined the hypothesis that developing visual attentional mechanisms influence infants' Visual Short-Term Memory (VSTM) in the context of multiple items. Five- and 10-month-old infants (N = 76) received a change detection task in which arrays of three differently colored squares appeared and disappeared. On each trial one square…

  7. Short-Term Memory, Executive Control, and Children's Route Learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Purser, Harry R. M.; Farran, Emily K.; Courbois, Yannick; Lemahieu, Axelle; Mellier, Daniel; Sockeel, Pascal; Blades, Mark

    2012-01-01

    The aim of this study was to investigate route-learning ability in 67 children aged 5 to 11 years and to relate route-learning performance to the components of Baddeley's model of working memory. Children carried out tasks that included measures of verbal and visuospatial short-term memory and executive control and also measures of verbal and…

  8. Short-Term Effects of Playing Computer Games on Attention

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tahiroglu, Aysegul Yolga; Celik, Gonca Gul; Avci, Ayse; Seydaoglu, Gulsah; Uzel, Mehtap; Altunbas, Handan

    2010-01-01

    Objective: The main aim of the present study is to investigate the short-term cognitive effects of computer games in children with different psychiatric disorders and normal controls. Method: One hundred one children are recruited for the study (aged between 9 and 12 years). All participants played a motor-racing game on the computer for 1 hour.…

  9. Short-term robustness of production management systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kleijnen, J.P.C.; Gaury, E.G.A.

    1998-01-01

    Short-term performance of a production management system for make-to-stock factories may be quantified through the service rate per shift; long-term performance through the average monthly work in process (WIP). This may yield, for example, that WIP is minimized, while the probability of the service

  10. Short-term forecasting tools for agricultural nutrient management

    Science.gov (United States)

    The advent of real time/short term farm management tools is motivated by the need to protect water quality above and beyond the general guidance offered by existing nutrient management plans. Advances in high performance computing and hydrologic/climate modeling have enabled rapid dissemination of ...

  11. Orienting attention to objects in visual short-term memory

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dell'Acqua, Roberto; Sessa, Paola; Toffanin, Paolo; Luria, Roy; Joliccoeur, Pierre

    2010-01-01

    We measured electroencephalographic activity during visual search of a target object among objects available to perception or among objects held in visual short-term memory (VSTM). For perceptual search, a single shape was shown first (pre-cue) followed by a search-array and the task was to decide w

  12. Orienting attention to objects in visual short-term memory

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dell'Acqua, Roberto; Sessa, Paola; Toffanin, Paolo; Luria, Roy; Joliccoeur, Pierre

    We measured electroencephalographic activity during visual search of a target object among objects available to perception or among objects held in visual short-term memory (VSTM). For perceptual search, a single shape was shown first (pre-cue) followed by a search-array and the task was to decide

  13. Physical approach to short-term wind power prediction

    CERN Document Server

    Lange, Matthias

    2006-01-01

    Offers an approach to the ultimate goal of the short-term prediction of the power output of winds farms. This book addresses scientists and engineers working in wind energy related R and D and industry, as well as graduate students and nonspecialists researchers in the fields of atmospheric physics and meteorology.

  14. Improving creativity performance by short-term meditation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ding, Xiaoqian; Tang, Yi-Yuan; Tang, Rongxiang; Posner, Michael I

    2014-03-19

    One form of meditation intervention, the integrative body-mind training (IBMT) has been shown to improve attention, reduce stress and change self-reports of mood. In this paper we examine whether short-term IBMT can improve performance related to creativity and determine the role that mood may play in such improvement. Forty Chinese undergraduates were randomly assigned to short-term IBMT group or a relaxation training (RT) control group. Mood and creativity performance were assessed by the Positive and Negative Affect Schedule (PANAS) and Torrance Tests of Creative Thinking (TTCT) questionnaire respectively. As predicted, the results indicated that short-term (30 min per day for 7 days) IBMT improved creativity performance on the divergent thinking task, and yielded better emotional regulation than RT. In addition, cross-lagged analysis indicated that both positive and negative affect may influence creativity in IBMT group (not RT group). Our results suggested that emotion-related creativity-promoting mechanism may be attributed to short-term meditation.

  15. Relationship between short-term sexual strategies and sexual jealousy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mathes, Eugene W

    2005-02-01

    In a classic study, Buss, Larson, Westen, and Semmelroth reported that men were more distressed by the thought of a partner's sexual infidelity (sexual jealousy) and women were more distressed by the thought of a partner's emotional infidelity (emotional jealousy). Initially, Buss and his associates explained these results by suggesting that men are concerned about uncertainty of paternity, that is, the possibility of raising another man's child while believing the child is their own. However, later they explained the results in terms of men's preference for short-term sexual strategies. The purpose of this research was to test the explanation of short-term sexual strategies. Men and women subjects were instructed to imagine themselves in a relationship which was either short-term (primarily sexual) or long-term (involving commitment) and then respond to Buss's jealousy items. It was hypothesized that, when both men and women imagined a short-term relationship, they would be more threatened by a partner's sexual infidelity, and, when they imagined a long-term relationship, they would be more threatened by a partner's emotional infidelity. Support was found for this hypothesis.

  16. 75 FR 59865 - Short-Term Borrowings Disclosure

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-09-28

    ... registrant to provide, in a separately captioned subsection of Management's Discussion and Analysis of... the terminology contained in the proposed short-term borrowings disclosure requirement. In a companion... liquidity and capital resources in Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and...

  17. Complex network structure influences processing in long-term and short-term memory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vitevitch, Michael S.; Chan, Kit Ying; Roodenrys, Steven

    2012-01-01

    Complex networks describe how entities in systems interact; the structure of such networks is argued to influence processing. One measure of network structure, clustering coefficient, C, measures the extent to which neighbors of a node are also neighbors of each other. Previous psycholinguistic experiments found that the C of phonological word-forms influenced retrieval from the mental lexicon (that portion of long-term memory dedicated to language) during the on-line recognition and production of spoken words. In the present study we examined how network structure influences other retrieval processes in long- and short-term memory. In a false-memory task—examining long-term memory—participants falsely recognized more words with low- than high-C. In a recognition memory task—examining veridical memories in long-term memory—participants correctly recognized more words with low- than high-C. However, participants in a serial recall task—examining redintegration in short-term memory—recalled lists comprised of high-C words more accurately than lists comprised of low-C words. These results demonstrate that network structure influences cognitive processes associated with several forms of memory including lexical, long-term, and short-term. PMID:22745522

  18. Adaptive ultra-short-term wind power prediction based on risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Xue, Yusheng; Yu, Chen; Li, Kang;

    2016-01-01

    A risk assessment based adaptive ultra-short-term wind power prediction (USTWPP) method is proposed in this paper. The method first extracts features from the historical data, and split every wind power time series (WPTS) into several subsets defined by their stationary patterns. A WPTS that does...... not match with any of the stationary patterns is then included into a subset of non-stationary patterns. Every WPTS subset is then related to a USTWPP model which is specially selected and optimized offline based on the proposed risk assessment index. For on-line applications, the pattern of the last short...

  19. Online educative activities for solar ultraviolet radiation based on measurements of cloud amount and solar exposures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parisi, A V; Downs, N; Turner, J; Amar, A

    2016-09-01

    A set of online activities for children and the community that are based on an integrated real-time solar UV and cloud measurement system are described. These activities use the functionality of the internet to provide an educative tool for school children and the public on the influence of cloud and the angle of the sun above the horizon on the global erythemal UV or sunburning UV, the diffuse erythemal UV, the global UVA (320-400nm) and the vitamin D effective UV. Additionally, the units of UV exposure and UV irradiance are investigated, along with the meaning and calculation of the UV index (UVI). This research will help ensure that children and the general public are better informed about sun safety by improving their personal understanding of the daily and the atmospheric factors that influence solar UV radiation and the solar UV exposures of the various wavebands in the natural environment. The activities may correct common misconceptions of children and the public about UV irradiances and exposure, utilising the widespread reach of the internet to increase the public's awareness of the factors influencing UV irradiances and exposures in order to provide clear information for minimizing UV exposure, while maintaining healthy, outdoor lifestyles.

  20. Ordered Short-Term Memory Differs in Signers and Speakers: Implications for Models of Short-Term Memory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bavelier, Daphne; Newport, Elissa L.; Hall, Matt; Supalla, Ted; Boutla, Mrim

    2008-01-01

    Capacity limits in linguistic short-term memory (STM) are typically measured with forward span tasks in which participants are asked to recall lists of words in the order presented. Using such tasks, native signers of American Sign Language (ASL) exhibit smaller spans than native speakers ([Boutla, M., Supalla, T., Newport, E. L., & Bavelier, D.…

  1. Ordered Short-Term Memory Differs in Signers and Speakers: Implications for Models of Short-Term Memory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bavelier, Daphne; Newport, Elissa L.; Hall, Matt; Supalla, Ted; Boutla, Mrim

    2008-01-01

    Capacity limits in linguistic short-term memory (STM) are typically measured with forward span tasks in which participants are asked to recall lists of words in the order presented. Using such tasks, native signers of American Sign Language (ASL) exhibit smaller spans than native speakers ([Boutla, M., Supalla, T., Newport, E. L., & Bavelier, D.…

  2. A Novel Hybrid Model for Short-Term Forecasting in PV Power Generation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuan-Kang Wu

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The increasing use of solar power as a source of electricity has led to increased interest in forecasting its power output over short-time horizons. Short-term forecasts are needed for operational planning, switching sources, programming backup, reserve usage, and peak load matching. However, the output of a photovoltaic (PV system is influenced by irradiation, cloud cover, and other weather conditions. These factors make it difficult to conduct short-term PV output forecasting. In this paper, an experimental database of solar power output, solar irradiance, air, and module temperature data has been utilized. It includes data from the Green Energy Office Building in Malaysia, the Taichung Thermal Plant of Taipower, and National Penghu University. Based on the historical PV power and weather data provided in the experiment, all factors that influence photovoltaic-generated energy are discussed. Moreover, five types of forecasting modules were developed and utilized to predict the one-hour-ahead PV output. They include the ARIMA, SVM, ANN, ANFIS, and the combination models using GA algorithm. Forecasting results show the high precision and efficiency of this combination model. Therefore, the proposed model is suitable for ensuring the stable operation of a photovoltaic generation system.

  3. Findings from an Independent Evaluation of the AMNH's Online Seminars on Science Course: "The Solar System"

    Science.gov (United States)

    Inverness Research, 2009

    2009-01-01

    Inverness Research studied the American Museum of Natural History (AMNH) Seminars on Science program for eight years, from its inception in 1998 to 2006. In 2009, Inverness Research conducted additional studies of the AMNH's new online course, The Solar System. This paper presents teacher survey ratings for The Solar System, along with profiles of…

  4. Findings from an Independent Evaluation of the AMNH's Online Seminars on Science Course: "The Solar System"

    Science.gov (United States)

    Inverness Research, 2009

    2009-01-01

    Inverness Research studied the American Museum of Natural History (AMNH) Seminars on Science program for eight years, from its inception in 1998 to 2006. In 2009, Inverness Research conducted additional studies of the AMNH's new online course, The Solar System. This paper presents teacher survey ratings for The Solar System, along with profiles of…

  5. Short-Term Wind Speed Forecasting for Power System Operations

    KAUST Repository

    Zhu, Xinxin

    2012-04-01

    The emphasis on renewable energy and concerns about the environment have led to large-scale wind energy penetration worldwide. However, there are also significant challenges associated with the use of wind energy due to the intermittent and unstable nature of wind. High-quality short-term wind speed forecasting is critical to reliable and secure power system operations. This article begins with an overview of the current status of worldwide wind power developments and future trends. It then reviews some statistical short-term wind speed forecasting models, including traditional time series approaches and more advanced space-time statistical models. It also discusses the evaluation of forecast accuracy, in particular, the need for realistic loss functions. New challenges in wind speed forecasting regarding ramp events and offshore wind farms are also presented. © 2012 The Authors. International Statistical Review © 2012 International Statistical Institute.

  6. Short-term hydropower production planning by stochastic programming

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fleten, Stein-Erik; Kristoffersen, Trine

    2008-01-01

    Within the framework of multi-stage mixed-integer linear stochastic programming we develop a short-term production plan for a price-taking hydropower plant operating under uncertainty. Current production must comply with the day-ahead commitments of the previous day which makes short......-term production planning a matter of spatial distribution among the reservoirs of the plant. Day-ahead market prices and reservoir inflows are, however, uncertain beyond the current operation day and water must be allocated among the reservoirs in order to strike a balance between current profits and expected...... future profits. A demonstration is presented with data from a Norwegian hydropower producer and the Nordic power market at Nord Pool....

  7. Short-term Effects of Gamma Ray Bursts on Earth

    CERN Document Server

    Martín, Osmel; Cárdenas, Rolando; Horváth, J E

    2009-01-01

    The aim of the present work is to study the potential short-term atmospheric and biospheric influence of Gamma Ray Bursts on the Earth. We focus in the ultraviolet flash at the planet's surface, which occurs as a result of the retransmission of the $\\gamma$ radiation through the atmosphere. This would be the only important short-term effect on life. We mostly consider Archean and Proterozoic eons, and for completeness we also comment on the Phanerozoic. Therefore, in our study we consider atmospheres with oxygen levels ranging from $10^{-5}$ to 1% of the present atmospheric level, representing different moments in the oxygen rise history. Ecological consequences and some strategies to estimate their importance are outlined.

  8. Delivery after previous cesarean: Short-term perinatal outcomes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patel, Ravi Mangal; Jain, Lucky

    2010-01-01

    Women must often choose between a vaginal birth after prior cesarean and elective repeat cesarean delivery. Short-term risks of vaginal birth after cesarean can be potentially catastrophic in the setting of uterine rupture. Although randomized controlled trials comparing these two modes of delivery are lacking, observational studies suggest an increased risk of perinatal mortality and hypoxic-ischemic encephalopathy in infants whose mothers undergo a trial of labor. These rare risks compete with more common, albeit less severe, short-term risks associated with elective repeat cesarean delivery with a particular emphasis on increased respiratory morbidities. Further studies are needed to identify potential strategies to improve perinatal outcomes and help guide physicians and patients in choosing optimal methods of delivery. PMID:20654778

  9. The psychotomimetic effects of short-term sensory deprivation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mason, Oliver J; Brady, Francesca

    2009-10-01

    People experiencing sensory deprivation often report perceptual disturbances such as hallucinations, especially over extended periods of time. However, there is little evidence concerning short-term sensory deprivation and whether its effects differ depending on the individual concerned, and in particular their proneness to psychosis. This study explored whether perceptual disturbances could be elicited by a brief period of complete isolation from sound and vision in both highly hallucination prone and nonhallucination prone groups. Greater psychotomimetic experiences taking the form of perceptual disturbances, paranoia, and anhedonia were found across both groups when under sensory deprivation. In addition, hallucination-prone individuals experienced more perceptual disturbances when placed in short-term sensory deprivation than nonprone individuals. This result is discussed in terms of difficulties in source monitoring as a possible mechanism involved in proneness to hallucinations.

  10. A new ensemble model for short term wind power prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Henrik; Albu, Razvan-Daniel; Felea, Ioan;

    2012-01-01

    As the objective of this study, a non-linear ensemble system is used to develop a new model for predicting wind speed in short-term time scale. Short-term wind power prediction becomes an extremely important field of research for the energy sector. Regardless of the recent advancements in the re......-search of prediction models, it was observed that different models have different capabilities and also no single model is suitable under all situations. The idea behind EPS (ensemble prediction systems) is to take advantage of the unique features of each subsystem to detain diverse patterns that exist in the dataset....... The conferred results show that the prediction errors can be decreased, while the computation time is reduced....

  11. Short-term effects of supernova explosions on radiocarbon production

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Povinec, P. (Komenskeho Univ., Bratislava (Czechoslovakia). Prirodovedecka Fakulta)

    1980-01-01

    The short-term increase in cosmic ray intensity caused by a supernova gamma-ray burst as well as the long-term increase resulting from corpuscular particles accelerated during the supernova explosion may be investigated by cosmogenic radiocarbon. It is shown that o.alactic supernovae exploding at distances up to 1 kpc from the Earth could cause a measurable increase in radiocarbon concentration in the past. Radiocarbon measurements for the period of the Tycho de Brahe supernova showed negative results.

  12. Cardioprotective Signature of Short-Term Caloric Restriction.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hossein Noyan

    Full Text Available To understand the molecular pathways underlying the cardiac preconditioning effect of short-term caloric restriction (CR.Lifelong CR has been suggested to reduce the incidence of cardiovascular disease through a variety of mechanisms. However, prolonged adherence to a CR life-style is difficult. Here we reveal the pathways that are modulated by short-term CR, which are associated with protection of the mouse heart from ischemia.Male 10-12 wk old C57bl/6 mice were randomly assigned to an ad libitum (AL diet with free access to regular chow, or CR, receiving 30% less food for 7 days (d, prior to myocardial infarction (MI via permanent coronary ligation. At d8, the left ventricles (LV of AL and CR mice were collected for Western blot, mRNA and microRNA (miR analyses to identify cardioprotective gene expression signatures. In separate groups, infarct size, cardiac hemodynamics and protein abundance of caspase 3 was measured at d2 post-MI.This short-term model of CR was associated with cardio-protection, as evidenced by decreased infarct size (18.5±2.4% vs. 26.6±1.7%, N=10/group; P=0.01. mRNA and miR profiles pre-MI (N=5/group identified genes modulated by short-term CR to be associated with circadian clock, oxidative stress, immune function, apoptosis, metabolism, angiogenesis, cytoskeleton and extracellular matrix (ECM. Western blots pre-MI revealed CR-associated increases in phosphorylated Akt and GSK3ß, reduced levels of phosphorylated AMPK and mitochondrial related proteins PGC-1α, cytochrome C and cyclooxygenase (COX IV, with no differences in the levels of phosphorylated eNOS or MAPK (ERK1/2; p38. CR regimen was also associated with reduced protein abundance of cleaved caspase 3 in the infarcted heart and improved cardiac function.

  13. Auditory short-term memory activation during score reading.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Veerle L Simoens

    Full Text Available Performing music on the basis of reading a score requires reading ahead of what is being played in order to anticipate the necessary actions to produce the notes. Score reading thus not only involves the decoding of a visual score and the comparison to the auditory feedback, but also short-term storage of the musical information due to the delay of the auditory feedback during reading ahead. This study investigates the mechanisms of encoding of musical information in short-term memory during such a complicated procedure. There were three parts in this study. First, professional musicians participated in an electroencephalographic (EEG experiment to study the slow wave potentials during a time interval of short-term memory storage in a situation that requires cross-modal translation and short-term storage of visual material to be compared with delayed auditory material, as it is the case in music score reading. This delayed visual-to-auditory matching task was compared with delayed visual-visual and auditory-auditory matching tasks in terms of EEG topography and voltage amplitudes. Second, an additional behavioural experiment was performed to determine which type of distractor would be the most interfering with the score reading-like task. Third, the self-reported strategies of the participants were also analyzed. All three parts of this study point towards the same conclusion according to which during music score reading, the musician most likely first translates the visual score into an auditory cue, probably starting around 700 or 1300 ms, ready for storage and delayed comparison with the auditory feedback.

  14. Auditory short-term memory activation during score reading.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simoens, Veerle L; Tervaniemi, Mari

    2013-01-01

    Performing music on the basis of reading a score requires reading ahead of what is being played in order to anticipate the necessary actions to produce the notes. Score reading thus not only involves the decoding of a visual score and the comparison to the auditory feedback, but also short-term storage of the musical information due to the delay of the auditory feedback during reading ahead. This study investigates the mechanisms of encoding of musical information in short-term memory during such a complicated procedure. There were three parts in this study. First, professional musicians participated in an electroencephalographic (EEG) experiment to study the slow wave potentials during a time interval of short-term memory storage in a situation that requires cross-modal translation and short-term storage of visual material to be compared with delayed auditory material, as it is the case in music score reading. This delayed visual-to-auditory matching task was compared with delayed visual-visual and auditory-auditory matching tasks in terms of EEG topography and voltage amplitudes. Second, an additional behavioural experiment was performed to determine which type of distractor would be the most interfering with the score reading-like task. Third, the self-reported strategies of the participants were also analyzed. All three parts of this study point towards the same conclusion according to which during music score reading, the musician most likely first translates the visual score into an auditory cue, probably starting around 700 or 1300 ms, ready for storage and delayed comparison with the auditory feedback.

  15. Short-term synchronization of intercostal motoneurone activity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sears, T A; Stagg, D

    1976-12-01

    1. The hypothesis is advanced that the joint occurrence of unitary excitatory post-synaptic potentials e.p.s.p.s) evoked in motoneurones by branches of common stem pre-synaptic fibres causes short-term synchronization of their discharge during the rising phases of the unitary e.p.s.p.s. 2. This hypothesis was tested using the pre- and post-stimulus time (PPST) histogram to detect synchronized firing among groups of intercostal motoneurones discharging in response to their natural synaptic drives. 3. Motor nerve action potentials were recorded monophasically from nerve filaments of the external intercostal muscles of anaesthetized, paralysed cats maintained on artificial ventilation. 4. Computer methods were used to measure peak spike amplitude, spike amplitude, spike interval and filament identification for simultaneous recordings from four filaments. The spike amplitude histograms were derived for each filament and groups of spikes were selected for analysis. 5. With spikes of one group designated as 'stimuli' (occurring at zero time) and those of a second as 'response' the PPST histogram was computed with different time bin widths. 6. With bin widths of 100 and 10 msec the central respiratory periodicity was apparent in the PPST histogram. With 1.0 msec bins the PPST histogram showed a narrow central peak extending to +/- 3.0 msec at its base. This 'short-term synchronization' supports the hypothesis of joint firing due to common presynaptic connectivity. 7. It was shown that detection of short-term synchronization was critically dependent on a sufficient quantity of data but that provided a simple criterion of adequate counts per bin in the PPST histogram was met, short-term synchronization could be detected between intercostal motoneurones of the same and adjacent segments.

  16. Short-term traffic flow forecasting with A-SVARMA

    OpenAIRE

    2013-01-01

    PUBLISHED Short-term Traffic Flow Forecasting (STFF), the process of predicting future traffic conditions based on historical and real-time observations, is an essential aspect of Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS). The existing well-known algorithms used for STFF include time-series analysis based techniques, among which the seasonal Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) model is one of the most precise methods used in this field. The effectiveness of STFF in an urban transport netwo...

  17. A strategy for short-term load forecasting in Ireland

    OpenAIRE

    Fay, Damien

    2004-01-01

    Electric utilities require short-term forecasts of electricity demand (load) in order to schedule generating plant up to several days ahead on an hourly basis. Errors in the forecasts may lead to generation plant operation that is not required or sub-optimal scheduling of generation plants. In addition, with the introduction of the Electricity Regulation Act 1999, a deregulated market structure has been introduced, adding increased impetus to reducing forecast error and the associated costs. ...

  18. Short term teleconnections associated with an individual tropical cyclone

    OpenAIRE

    Woll, Stephen C.

    1993-01-01

    Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. The short term teleconnections associated with an individual western Pacific tropical cyclone have been investigated using an atmospheric general circulation model. The general strategy was to use the GCM, in combination with several tropical cyclone bogusing procedures, to isolate the effects on the global circulation of the tropical cyclone. The bogusing procedures were used to alter the tropical cyclone in the initial conditions fo...

  19. Determinants of Short-Term Export Performance in Pakistan

    OpenAIRE

    Subhani, Muhammad Imtiaz; Osman, Ms. Amber; Habib, Sukaina

    2010-01-01

    This research investigates the interdependency between independent (Increase of pricing strategy adaptation, Increase of export intensity, Firm's commitment to exporting, Export market development, Export market competition, Past Pricing Strategy Adaptation, Past Export Performance Satisfaction, Past Export Intensity, Export market distance) and dependent variables (i.e. Expected Short-Term Export Performance improvement) of export performance. The framework is tested via a survey through que...

  20. Short-term memory in networks of dissociated cortical neurons.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dranias, Mark R; Ju, Han; Rajaram, Ezhilarasan; VanDongen, Antonius M J

    2013-01-30

    Short-term memory refers to the ability to store small amounts of stimulus-specific information for a short period of time. It is supported by both fading and hidden memory processes. Fading memory relies on recurrent activity patterns in a neuronal network, whereas hidden memory is encoded using synaptic mechanisms, such as facilitation, which persist even when neurons fall silent. We have used a novel computational and optogenetic approach to investigate whether these same memory processes hypothesized to support pattern recognition and short-term memory in vivo, exist in vitro. Electrophysiological activity was recorded from primary cultures of dissociated rat cortical neurons plated on multielectrode arrays. Cultures were transfected with ChannelRhodopsin-2 and optically stimulated using random dot stimuli. The pattern of neuronal activity resulting from this stimulation was analyzed using classification algorithms that enabled the identification of stimulus-specific memories. Fading memories for different stimuli, encoded in ongoing neural activity, persisted and could be distinguished from each other for as long as 1 s after stimulation was terminated. Hidden memories were detected by altered responses of neurons to additional stimulation, and this effect persisted longer than 1 s. Interestingly, network bursts seem to eliminate hidden memories. These results are similar to those that have been reported from similar experiments in vivo and demonstrate that mechanisms of information processing and short-term memory can be studied using cultured neuronal networks, thereby setting the stage for therapeutic applications using this platform.

  1. Short-term energy outlook: Quarterly projections, fourth quarter 1997

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1997-10-14

    The Energy Information Administration (EIA) prepares quarterly short-term energy supply, demand, and price projections for printed publication in January, April, July, and October in the Short-Term Energy Outlook. The details of these projections, as well as monthly updates on or about the 6th of each interim month, are available on the internet at: www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/contents.html. The forecast period for this issue of the Outlook extends from the fourth quarter of 1997 through the fourth quarter of 1998. Values for the fourth quarter of 1997, however, are preliminary EIA estimates (for example, some monthly values for petroleum supply and disposition are derived in part from weekly data reported in EIA`s Weekly Petroleum Status Report) or are calculated from model simulations that use the latest exogenous information available (for example, electricity sales and generation are simulated by using actual weather data). The historical energy data, compiled in the fourth quarter 1997 version of the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) database, are mostly EIA data regularly published in the Monthly Energy Review, Petroleum Supply Monthly, and other EIA publications. Minor discrepancies between the data in these publications and the historical data in this Outlook are due to independent rounding. The STIFS model is driven principally by three sets of assumptions or inputs: estimates of key macroeconomic variables, world oil price assumptions, and assumptions about the severity of weather. 19 tabs.

  2. Does tonality boost short-term memory in congenital amusia?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Albouy, Philippe; Schulze, Katrin; Caclin, Anne; Tillmann, Barbara

    2013-11-06

    Congenital amusia is a neuro-developmental disorder of music perception and production. Recent findings have demonstrated that this deficit is linked to an impaired short-term memory for tone sequences. As it has been shown before that non-musicians' implicit knowledge of musical regularities can improve short-term memory for tone information, the present study investigated if this type of implicit knowledge could also influence amusics' short-term memory performance. Congenital amusics and their matched controls, who were non-musicians, had to indicate whether sequences of five tones, presented in pairs, were the same or different; half of the pairs respected musical regularities (tonal sequences) and the other half did not (atonal sequences). As previously reported for non-musician participants, the control participants showed better performance (as measured with d') for tonal sequences than for atonal ones. While this improvement was not observed in amusics, both control and amusic participants showed faster response times for tonal sequences than for atonal sequences. These findings suggest that some implicit processing of tonal structures is potentially preserved in congenital amusia. This observation is encouraging as it strengthens the perspective to exploit implicit knowledge to help reducing pitch perception and memory deficits in amusia. © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  3. Short-term indicators. Intensities as a proxy for savings

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boonekamp, P.G.M.; Gerdes, J. [ECN Policy Studies, Petten (Netherlands); Faberi, S. [Institute of Studies for the Integration of Systems ISIS, Rome (Italy)

    2013-12-15

    The ODYSSEE database on energy efficiency indicators (www.odyssee-indicators.org) has been set up to enable the monitoring and evaluation of realised energy efficiency improvements and related energy savings. The database covers the 27 EU countries as well as Norway and Croatia and data are available from 1990 on. This work contributes to the growing need for quantitative monitoring and evaluation of the impacts of energy policies and measures, both at the EU and national level, e.g. due to the Energy Services Directive and the proposed Energy Efficiency Directive. Because the underlying data become available only after some time, the savings figures are not always timely available. This is especially true for the ODEX efficiency indices per sector that rely on a number of indicators. Therefore, there is a need for so-called short-term indicators that become available shortly after the year has passed for which data are needed. The short term indicators do not replace the savings indicators but function as a proxy for the savings in the most recent year. This proxy value is faster available, but will be less accurate than the saving indicators themselves. The short term indicators have to be checked regularly with the ODEX indicators in order to see whether they can function still as a proxy.

  4. Long and short term pump testing for landfill gas wells

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stevens, D.W.; Fleming, I.R. [Saskatchewan Univ., Saskatoon, SK (Canada). Dept. of Civil and Geological Engineering

    2009-07-01

    A study was conducted to evaluate vertical well designs drilled into existing landfills as part of a landfill gas collection retrofitting project. Well designs and construction techniques were compared in relation to pneumatic efficiency and the capacity of each well. The aim of the study was to devise a method of evaluating well efficiency and long-term performance. Short-term, single well step-drawdown tests were conducted. Long-term pumping from the entire well field was conducted using different flow rate control approaches. Flow rates were measured at several different system pressures. Data were then compared with drawdown flow rate data from the short-term tests. The study proved that the single well short-term tests accurately predicted the long-term performance of the well field. The study also demonstrated that there was no apparent relationship between well productivity and the length of the screened zone, the diameter of the well, or the diameter of the borehole. No relationship was observed between well performance and the capital costs of individual wells.

  5. Short-Term Variations in the Equatorial Rotation Rate of Sunspot Groups

    Science.gov (United States)

    Javaraiah, J.; Bertello, L.

    2016-12-01

    We have detected several periodicities in the solar equatorial rotation rate of sunspot groups in the catalog Greenwich Photoheliographic Results (GPR) during the period 1931 - 1976, the Solar Optical Observing Network (SOON) during the period 1977 - 2014, and the Debrecen Photoheliographic Data (DPD) during the period 1974 - 2014. We have compared the results from the fast Fourier transform (FFT), the maximum entropy method (MEM), and the Morlet wavelet power-spectra of the equatorial rotation rates determined from SOON and DPD sunspot-group data during the period 1986 - 2007 with those of the Mount Wilson Doppler-velocity data during the same period determined by Javaraiah et al. ( Solar Phys. 257, 61, 2009). We have also compared the power-spectra computed from the DPD and the combined GPR and SOON sunspot-group data during the period 1974 - 2014 to those from the GPR sunspot-group data during the period 1931 - 1973. Our results suggest a ˜ 250-day period in the equatorial rotation rate determined from both the Mt. Wilson Doppler-velocity data and the sunspot-group data during 1986 - 2007. However, a wavelet analysis reveals that this periodicity appears mostly around 1991 in the velocity data, while it is present in most of the solar cycles covered by the sunspot-group data, mainly near the minimum epochs of the solar cycles. We also found the signature of a period of ˜ 1.4 years in the velocity data during 1990 - 1995, and in the equatorial rotation rate of sunspot groups mostly around the year 1956. The equatorial rotation rate of sunspot groups reveals a strong ˜ 1.6-year periodicity around 1933 and 1955, a weaker one around 1976, and a strong ˜ 1.8-year periodicity around 1943. Our analysis also suggests periodicities of ˜ 5 years, ˜ 7 years, and ˜ 17 years, as well as some other short-term periodicities. However, short-term periodicities are mostly present at the time of solar minima. Hence, short-term periodicities cannot be confirmed because of

  6. Short-term memory in zebrafish (Danio rerio).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jia, Jason; Fernandes, Yohaan; Gerlai, Robert

    2014-08-15

    Learning and memory represent perhaps the most complex behavioral phenomena. Although their underlying mechanisms have been extensively analyzed, only a fraction of the potential molecular components have been identified. The zebrafish has been proposed as a screening tool with which mechanisms of complex brain functions may be systematically uncovered. However, as a relative newcomer in behavioral neuroscience, the zebrafish has not been well characterized for its cognitive and mnemonic features, thus learning and/or memory screens with adults have not been feasible. Here we study short-term memory of adult zebrafish. We show animated images of conspecifics (the stimulus) to the experimental subject during 1 min intervals on ten occasions separated by different (2, 4, 8 or 16 min long) inter-stimulus intervals (ISI), a between subject experimental design. We quantify the distance of the subject from the image presentation screen during each stimulus presentation interval, during each of the 1-min post-stimulus intervals immediately following the stimulus presentations and during each of the 1-min intervals furthest away from the last stimulus presentation interval and just before the next interval (pre-stimulus interval), respectively. Our results demonstrate significant retention of short-term memory even in the longest ISI group but suggest no acquisition of reference memory. Because in the employed paradigm both stimulus presentation and behavioral response quantification is computer automated, we argue that high-throughput screening for drugs or mutations that alter short-term memory performance of adult zebrafish is now becoming feasible. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  7. Short-term geomorphological evolution of proglacial systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carrivick, Jonathan L.; Heckmann, Tobias

    2017-06-01

    Proglacial systems are amongst the most rapidly changing landscapes on Earth, as glacier mass loss, permafrost degradation and more episodes of intense rainfall progress with climate change. This review addresses the urgent need to quantitatively define proglacial systems not only in terms of spatial extent but also in terms of functional processes. It firstly provides a critical appraisal of prevailing conceptual models of proglacial systems, and uses this to justify compiling data on rates of landform change in terms of planform, horizontal motion, elevation changes and sediment budgets. These data permit us to produce novel summary conceptual diagrams that consider proglacial landscape evolution in terms of a balance of longitudinal and lateral water and sediment fluxes. Throughout, we give examples of newly emerging datasets and data processing methods because these have the potential to assist with the issues of: (i) a lack of knowledge of proglacial systems within high-mountain, arctic and polar regions, (ii) considerable inter- and intra-catchment variability in the geomorphology and functioning of proglacial systems, (iii) problems with the magnitude of short-term geomorphological changes being at the threshold of detection, (iv) separating short-term variability from longer-term trends, and (v) of the representativeness of plot-scale field measurements for regionalisation and for upscaling. We consider that understanding of future climate change effects on proglacial systems requires holistic process-based modelling to explicitly consider feedbacks and linkages, especially between hillslope and valley-floor components. Such modelling must be informed by a new generation of repeated distributed topographic surveys to detect and quantify short-term geomorphological changes.

  8. Short-term energy outlook, quarterly projections, second quarter 1998

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1998-04-01

    The Energy Information Administration (EIA) prepares quarterly short-term energy supply, demand, and price projections. The details of these projections, as well as monthly updates, are available on the Internet at: www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/contents.html. The paper discusses outlook assumptions; US energy prices; world oil supply and the oil production cutback agreement of March 1998; international oil demand and supply; world oil stocks, capacity, and net trade; US oil demand and supply; US natural gas demand and supply; US coal demand and supply; US electricity demand and supply; US renewable energy demand; and US energy demand and supply sensitivities. 29 figs., 19 tabs.

  9. MHz Gravitational Waves from Short-term Anisotropic Inflation

    CERN Document Server

    Ito, Asuka

    2016-01-01

    We reveal the universality of short-term anisotropic inflation. As a demonstration, we study inflation with an exponential type gauge kinetic function which is ubiquitous in models obtained by dimensional reduction from higher dimensional fundamental theory. It turns out that an anisotropic inflation universally takes place in the later stage of conventional inflation. Remarkably, we find that primordial gravitational waves with a peak amplitude around $10^{-26}$ ~ $10^{-27}$ are copiously produced in high-frequency bands 10MHz~100MHz. If we could detect such gravitational waves in future, we would be able to probe higher dimensional fundamental theory.

  10. Short Term Electrical Load Forecasting by Artificial Neural Network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hong Li

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents an application of artificial neural networks for short-term times series electrical load forecasting. An adaptive learning algorithm is derived from system stability to ensure the convergence of training process. Historical data of hourly power load as well as hourly wind power generation are sourced from European Open Power System Platform. The simulation demonstrates that errors steadily decrease in training with the adaptive learning factor starting at different initial value and errors behave volatile with constant learning factors with different values

  11. A Simple Hybrid Model for Short-Term Load Forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Suseelatha Annamareddi

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper proposes a simple hybrid model to forecast the electrical load data based on the wavelet transform technique and double exponential smoothing. The historical noisy load series data is decomposed into deterministic and fluctuation components using suitable wavelet coefficient thresholds and wavelet reconstruction method. The variation characteristics of the resulting series are analyzed to arrive at reasonable thresholds that yield good denoising results. The constitutive series are then forecasted using appropriate exponential adaptive smoothing models. A case study performed on California energy market data demonstrates that the proposed method can offer high forecasting precision for very short-term forecasts, considering a time horizon of two weeks.

  12. The stability of short-term hearing outcome after stapedotomy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Steven Arild Wuyts; Öhman, Malin Charlotta; Sørensen, Mads Sølvsten

    2015-01-01

    the currently recommended > 12-month follow-up. The use of 3-month data in reporting outcome could reduce the bias inherent to the loss to follow-up at 12 months. OBJECTIVE: To investigate the stability of short-term postoperative hearing after stapedotomy for otosclerosis. METHODS: This was a prospective...... database study; 371 cases with otosclerosis were registered in the database between August 2004 and June 2013. We included the 166 primary cases and 37 revision cases that had attended both follow-ups. RESULTS: The mean changes in postoperative hearing thresholds between the 3-month and 12-month follow...

  13. Short term settlement of footing on snow foundation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Puneet Mahajan

    2001-10-01

    Full Text Available "A constitutive theory for snow, developed by the authors, is applied to solve for the short-term settlement of footing on snow foundation. The constitutive law used is a microstructurally-based formulation which includes the effects of bond deformation and fracture. It also includes transient creep effects and strain hardening of snow. The foundation problem is solved for stress and displacement distribution, with two different loads of 0.008 MPa and 0.1 MPa distributed uniformly over a part of the top face. The stress distribution matches closely with the existing theoretical results.

  14. Short-term effects of radiation in glioblastoma spheroids

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Asferg Petterson, Stine; Pind Jakobsen, Ida; Jensen, Stine Skov;

    2016-01-01

    and five days. We found a small reduction in primary spheroid size after radiation and an associated small increase in uptake of the cell death marker propidium iodide. Using immunohistochemistry, P53 expression was found to be significantly increased, whereas the Ki-67 proliferation index...... capacity. Gene expression analysis of nine stem cell- and two hypoxia-related genes did not reveal any upregulation after radiation. In conclusion, this study suggests that a major short-term effect of radiation is pronounced reduction of tumor cell proliferation. We found no upregulation of stem cell...

  15. A semiparametric approach to short-term oil price forecasting

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Morana, C. [University of Piemonte Orientale, Facolta di Economia, Via Lanino 1, 28100 Novara (Italy)

    2001-05-01

    In this paper it is shown how the GARCH properties of oil price changes can be employed to forecast the oil price distribution over short-term horizons. The forecasting methodology is semiparametric and it is based on the bootstrap approach. The results of an out-of-sample forecasting exercise, carried out using the Brent oil price series, suggest that the forecasting approach can be used to obtain a performance measure for the forward price, in addition to compute interval forecasts for the oil price.

  16. [Short term efficacy and safety of etanercept in psoriasis].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zulaica, A; Pérez-Pérez, L; Allegue, F

    2010-05-01

    Psoriasis is a chronic disease that occurs in episodes and which, in a certain moment of its evolution or in some patients, may affect a large portion of the body surface with serious physical and psychological repercussions. The treatment used in this type of patient is associated to many side effects and requires numerous clinical and laboratory controls. We present a clinical case of severe psoriasis that presented a rapid and complete response to etanercept. Based on this case, we performed a bibliographic review aimed at the short-term safety and efficacy aspects, less than 12 weeks of treatment, in psoriatic patients treated with this molecule.

  17. Overwriting and intrusion in short-term memory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bancroft, Tyler D; Jones, Jeffery A; Ensor, Tyler M; Hockley, William E; Servos, Philip

    2016-04-01

    Studies of interference in working and short-term memory suggest that irrelevant information may overwrite the contents of memory or intrude into memory. While some previous studies have reported greater interference when irrelevant information is similar to the contents of memory than when it is dissimilar, other studies have reported greater interference for dissimilar distractors than for similar distractors. In the present study, we find the latter effect in a paradigm that uses auditory tones as stimuli. We suggest that the effects of distractor similarity to memory contents are mediated by the type of information held in memory, particularly the complexity or simplicity of information.

  18. Short-term memory load and pronunciation rate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schweickert, Richard; Hayt, Cathrin

    1988-01-01

    In a test of short-term memory recall, two subjects attempted to recall various lists. For unpracticed subjects, the time it took to read the list is a better predictor of immediate recall than the number of items on the list. For practiced subjects, the two predictors do about equally well. If the items that must be recalled are unfamiliar, it is advantageous to keep the items short to pronounce. On the other hand, if the same items will be encountered over and over again, it is advantageous to make them distinctive, even at the cost of adding to the number of syllables.

  19. Attentional priorities and access to short-term memory

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gillebert, Celine; Dyrholm, Mads; Vangkilde, Signe Allerup

    2012-01-01

    The intraparietal sulcus (IPS) has been implicated in selective attention as well as visual short-term memory (VSTM). To contrast mechanisms of target selection, distracter filtering, and access to VSTM, we combined behavioral testing, computational modeling and functional magnetic resonance......, thereby displaying a significant interaction between the two factors. The interaction between target and distracter set size in IPS could not be accounted for by a simple explanation in terms of number of items accessing VSTM. Instead, it led us to a model where items accessing VSTM receive differential...

  20. MHz gravitational waves from short-term anisotropic inflation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ito, Asuka; Soda, Jiro [Department of Physics, Kobe University,Kobe 657-8501 (Japan)

    2016-04-18

    We reveal the universality of short-term anisotropic inflation. As a demonstration, we study inflation with an exponential type gauge kinetic function which is ubiquitous in models obtained by dimensional reduction from higher dimensional fundamental theory. It turns out that an anisotropic inflation universally takes place in the later stage of conventional inflation. Remarkably, we find that primordial gravitational waves with a peak amplitude around 10{sup −26}∼10{sup −27} are copiously produced in high-frequency bands 10 MHz∼100 MHz. If we could detect such gravitational waves in future, we would be able to probe higher dimensional fundamental theory.

  1. Improving digit span assessment of short-term verbal memory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woods, David L; Kishiyamaa, Mark M; Lund, E William; Herron, Timothy J; Edwards, Ben; Poliva, Oren; Hink, Robert F; Reed, Bruce

    2011-01-01

    We measured digit span (DS) in two experiments that used computerized presentation of randomized auditory digits with performance-adapted list length adjustment. A new mean span (MS) metric of DS was developed that showed reduced variance, improved test-retest reliability, and higher correlations with the results of other neuropsychological test results when compared to traditional DS measures. The MS metric also enhanced the sensitivity of forward versus backward span comparisons, enabled the development of normative performance criteria with subdigit precision, and elucidated changes in DS performance with age and education level. Computerized stimulus delivery and improved scoring metrics significantly enhance the precision of DS assessments of short-term verbal memory.

  2. Short-term muscle power during growth and maturation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Praagh, Emmanuel; Doré, Eric

    2002-01-01

    During growth and maturation, the study of very brief high-intensity exercise has not received the same attention from researchers as, for instance, aerobic function. In anaerobic tasks or sports events such as sprint cycling, jumping or running, the children's performance is distinctly lower than that of adults. This partly reflects children's lesser ability to generate mechanical energy from chemical energy sources during short-term intensive activity. For many years, various attempts have been made to quantify the anaerobic energy yield in maximal-intensity exercise, but many assumptions have had to be made with respect to mechanical efficiency, lactate turnover, dilution space for lactate, and so on. During childhood and adolescence, direct measurements of the rate or capacity of anaerobic pathways for energy turnover presents several ethical and methodological difficulties. Thus, rather than measure energy supply, paediatric exercise scientists have concentrated on measuring short-term muscle power (STMP) by means of standardised tests. Previously, investigators have used various protocols such as short-term cycling power tests, vertical jump tests or running tests. Cycling ergometer tests are the most common. There is, however, no ideal test, and so it is important to acknowledge the limitations of each test. Progress has been made in assessing instantaneous cycling STMP from a single exercise bout. Several investigators have reported STMP increases with age and have suggested that late pubertal period may accentuate anaerobic glycolysis. Mass-related STMP was shown to increase dramatically during childhood and adolescence, whereas the corresponding increase in peak blood lactate was considerably lower. The latter results support the hypothesis that the difference observed between children and adolescents during STMP testing is more related to neuromuscular factors, hormonal factors and improved motor coordination, rather than being an indicator of reduced

  3. Robust short-term memory without synaptic learning.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Samuel Johnson

    Full Text Available Short-term memory in the brain cannot in general be explained the way long-term memory can--as a gradual modification of synaptic weights--since it takes place too quickly. Theories based on some form of cellular bistability, however, do not seem able to account for the fact that noisy neurons can collectively store information in a robust manner. We show how a sufficiently clustered network of simple model neurons can be instantly induced into metastable states capable of retaining information for a short time (a few seconds. The mechanism is robust to different network topologies and kinds of neural model. This could constitute a viable means available to the brain for sensory and/or short-term memory with no need of synaptic learning. Relevant phenomena described by neurobiology and psychology, such as local synchronization of synaptic inputs and power-law statistics of forgetting avalanches, emerge naturally from this mechanism, and we suggest possible experiments to test its viability in more biological settings.

  4. Short-Term Test Results: Multifamily Home Energy Efficiency Retrofit

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lyons, J.

    2013-01-01

    Multifamily deep energy retrofits (DERs) represent great potential for energy savings, while also providing valuable insights on research-generated efficiency measures, cost-effectiveness metrics, and risk factor strategies for the multifamily housing industry. The Bay Ridge project is comprised of a base scope retrofit with a goal of achieving 30% savings (relative to pre-retrofit), and a DER scope with a goal of 50% savings (relative to pre-retrofit). The base scope has been applied to the entire complex, except for one 12-unit building which underwent the DER scope. Findings from the implementation, commissioning, and short-term testing at Bay Ridge include air infiltration reductions of greater than 60% in the DER building; a hybrid heat pump system with a Savings to Investment Ratio (SIR) > 1 (relative to a high efficiency furnace) which also provides the resident with added incentive for energy savings; and duct leakage reductions of > 60% using an aerosolized duct sealing approach. Despite being a moderate rehab instead of a gut rehab, the Bay Ridge DER is currently projected to achieve energy savings ≥ 50% compared to pre-retrofit, and the short-term testing supports this estimate.

  5. Short-Term Monocular Deprivation Enhances Physiological Pupillary Oscillations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Binda, Paola; Lunghi, Claudia

    2017-01-01

    Short-term monocular deprivation alters visual perception in adult humans, increasing the dominance of the deprived eye, for example, as measured with binocular rivalry. This form of plasticity may depend upon the inhibition/excitation balance in the visual cortex. Recent work suggests that cortical excitability is reliably tracked by dilations and constrictions of the pupils of the eyes. Here, we ask whether monocular deprivation produces a systematic change of pupil behavior, as measured at rest, that is independent of the change of visual perception. During periods of minimal sensory stimulation (in the dark) and task requirements (minimizing body and gaze movements), slow pupil oscillations, "hippus," spontaneously appear. We find that hippus amplitude increases after monocular deprivation, with larger hippus changes in participants showing larger ocular dominance changes (measured by binocular rivalry). This tight correlation suggests that a single latent variable explains both the change of ocular dominance and hippus. We speculate that the neurotransmitter norepinephrine may be implicated in this phenomenon, given its important role in both plasticity and pupil control. On the practical side, our results indicate that measuring the pupil hippus (a simple and short procedure) provides a sensitive index of the change of ocular dominance induced by short-term monocular deprivation, hence a proxy for plasticity.

  6. Plant community controls on short-term ecosystem nitrogen retention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Vries, Franciska T; Bardgett, Richard D

    2016-05-01

    Retention of nitrogen (N) is a critical ecosystem function, especially in the face of widespread anthropogenic N enrichment; however, our understanding of the mechanisms involved is limited. Here, we tested under glasshouse conditions how plant community attributes, including variations in the dominance, diversity and range of plant functional traits, influence N uptake and retention in temperate grassland. We added a pulse of (15) N to grassland plant communities assembled to represent a range of community-weighted mean plant traits, trait functional diversity and divergence, and species richness, and measured plant and microbial uptake of (15) N, and leaching losses of (15) N, as a short-term test of N retention in the plant-soil system. Root biomass, herb abundance and dominant plant traits were the main determinants of N retention in the plant-soil system: greater root biomass and herb abundance, and lower root tissue density, increased plant (15) N uptake, while higher specific leaf area and root tissue density increased microbial (15) N uptake. Our results provide novel, mechanistic insight into the short-term fate of N in the plant-soil system, and show that dominant plant traits, rather than trait functional diversity, control the fate of added N in the plant-soil system.

  7. Short-Term Test Results: Multifamily Home Energy Efficiency Retrofit

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lyons, J.

    2013-01-01

    Multifamily deep energy retrofits (DERs) represent great potential for energy savings, while also providing valuable insights on research-generated efficiency measures, cost-effectiveness metrics, and risk factor strategies for the multifamily housing industry. The Bay Ridge project is comprised of a base scope retrofit with a goal of achieving 30% savings (relative to pre-retrofit), and a DER scope with a goal of 50% savings (relative to pre-retrofit). The base scope has been applied to the entire complex, except for one 12-unit building which underwent the DER scope. Findings from the implementation, commissioning, and short-term testing at Bay Ridge include air infiltration reductions of greater than 60% in the DER building; a hybrid heat pump system with a Savings to Investment Ratio (SIR) > 1 (relative to a high efficiency furnace) which also provides the resident with added incentive for energy savings; and duct leakage reductions of > 60% using an aerosolized duct sealing approach. Despite being a moderate rehab instead of a gut rehab, the Bay Ridge DER is currently projected to achieve energy savings ≥ 50% compared to pre-retrofit, and the short-term testing supports this estimate.

  8. A method for short term electricity spot price forecasting

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Koreneff, G.; Seppaelae, A.; Lehtonen, M.; Kekkonen, V. [VTT Energy, Espoo (Finland); Laitinen, E.; Haekli, J. [Vaasa Univ. (Finland); Antila, E. [ABB Transmit Oy (Finland)

    1998-08-01

    In Finland, the electricity market was de-regulated in November 1995. For the electricity purchase of power companies this has caused big changes, since the old tariff based contracts of bulk power supply have been replaced by negotiated bilateral short term contracts and by power purchase from the spot market. In the spot market, in turn, there are at the present two strong actors: The electricity exchange of Finland and the Nordic power pool which is run by the Swedish and Norwegian companies. Today, the power companies in Finland have short term trade with both of the electricity exchanges. The aim of this chapter is to present methods for spot price forecasting in the electricity exchange. The main focus is given to the Finnish circumstances. In the beginning of the presentation, the practices of the electricity exchange of Finland are described, and a brief presentation is given on the different contracts, or electricity products, available in the spot market. For comparison, the practices of the Nordic electricity exchange are also outlined. A time series technique for spot price forecasting is presented. The structure of the model is presented, and its validity is tested using real case data obtained from the Finnish power market. The spot price forecasting model is a part of a computer system for distribution energy management (DEM) in a de-regulated power market

  9. Short-term cortical plasticity induced by conditioning pain modulation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Egsgaard, Line Lindhardt; Buchgreitz, Line; Wang, Li

    2012-01-01

    To investigate the effects of homotopic and heterotopic conditioning pain modulation (CPM) on short-term cortical plasticity. Glutamate (tonic pain) or isotonic saline (sham) was injected in the upper trapezius (homotopic) and in the thenar (heterotopic) muscles. Intramuscular electrical stimulat......To investigate the effects of homotopic and heterotopic conditioning pain modulation (CPM) on short-term cortical plasticity. Glutamate (tonic pain) or isotonic saline (sham) was injected in the upper trapezius (homotopic) and in the thenar (heterotopic) muscles. Intramuscular electrical......, and after homotopic and heterotopic CPM versus control. Peak latencies at N100, P200, and P300 were extracted and the location/strength of corresponding dipole current sources and multiple dipoles were estimated. Homotopic CPM caused hypoalgesia (P = 0.032, 30.6% compared to baseline) to electrical...... stimulation. No cortical changes were found for homotopic CPM. A positive correlation at P200 between electrical pain threshold after tonic pain and the z coordinate after tonic pain (P = 0.032) was found for homotopic CPM. For heterotopic CPM, no significant hypoalgesia was found and a dipole shift of the P...

  10. Robust Short-Term Memory without Synaptic Learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Samuel; Marro, J.; Torres, Joaquín J.

    2013-01-01

    Short-term memory in the brain cannot in general be explained the way long-term memory can – as a gradual modification of synaptic weights – since it takes place too quickly. Theories based on some form of cellular bistability, however, do not seem able to account for the fact that noisy neurons can collectively store information in a robust manner. We show how a sufficiently clustered network of simple model neurons can be instantly induced into metastable states capable of retaining information for a short time (a few seconds). The mechanism is robust to different network topologies and kinds of neural model. This could constitute a viable means available to the brain for sensory and/or short-term memory with no need of synaptic learning. Relevant phenomena described by neurobiology and psychology, such as local synchronization of synaptic inputs and power-law statistics of forgetting avalanches, emerge naturally from this mechanism, and we suggest possible experiments to test its viability in more biological settings. PMID:23349664

  11. Statistical approaches to short-term electricity forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kellova, Andrea

    The study of the short-term forecasting of electricity demand has played a key role in the economic optimization of the electric energy industry and is essential for power systems planning and operation. In electric energy markets, accurate short-term forecasting of electricity demand is necessary mainly for economic operations. Our focus is directed to the question of electricity demand forecasting in the Czech Republic. Firstly, we describe the current structure and organization of the Czech, as well as the European, electricity market. Secondly, we provide a complex description of the most powerful external factors influencing electricity consumption. The choice of the most appropriate model is conditioned by these electricity demand determining factors. Thirdly, we build up several types of multivariate forecasting models, both linear and nonlinear. These models are, respectively, linear regression models and artificial neural networks. Finally, we compare the forecasting power of both kinds of models using several statistical accuracy measures. Our results suggest that although the electricity demand forecasting in the Czech Republic is for the considered years rather a nonlinear than a linear problem, for practical purposes simple linear models with nonlinear inputs can be adequate. This is confirmed by the values of the empirical loss function applied to the forecasting results.

  12. Gaze direction affects visuo-spatial short-term memory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carlei, Christophe; Kerzel, Dirk

    2014-10-01

    Hemispheric asymmetries were investigated by changing the horizontal position of stimuli that had to be remembered in a visuo-spatial short-term memory task. Observers looked at matrices containing a variable number of filled squares on the left or right side of the screen center. At stimulus offset, participants reproduced the positions of the filled squares in an empty response matrix. Stimulus and response matrices were presented in the same quadrant. We observed that memory performance was better when the matrices were shown on the left side of the screen. We distinguished between recall strategies that relied on visual or non-visual (verbal) cues and found that the effect of gaze position occurred more reliably in participants using visual recall strategies. Overall, the results show that there is a solid enhancement of visuo-spatial short-term memory when observers look to the left. In contrast, vertical position had no influence on performance. We suggest that unilateral gaze to the left activates centers in the right hemisphere contributing to visuo-spatial memory. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  13. Atmospheric corrosion of carbon steel resulting from short term exposures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Balasubramanian, R.; Cook, D.C.; Perez, T.; Reyes, J. [Department of Physics, Old Dominion University, Norfolk, VA 23529 (United States)

    1998-12-31

    The study of corrosion products from short term atmospheric exposures of carbon steel, is very important to understand the processes that lead to corrosion of steels, and ultimately improve the performance of such steel in highly corrosive environments. Many regions along the Gulf of Mexico have extremely corrosive environments due to high mean annual temperature, humidity, time-of-wetness and every high atmospheric pollutants. The process the formation of corrosion products resulting from short term exposure of carbon steel, both as a function of environmental conditions and exposure time, has been investigated. Two sets of coupons were exposed at marine and marine locations, in Campeche, Mexico. Each set was exposed between 1 and 12 months to study the corrosion as a function of time. During the exposure periods, the relative humidity, rainfall, mean temperature, wind speed and wind direction were monitored along with the chloride and sulfur dioxide concentrations in the air. The corroded coupons were analyzed by Moessbauer, Raman, Infrared spectroscopies and X-ray diffraction in order to completely identify the oxides and map their location in the corrosion coating. Scattering and transmission Moessbauer analysis showed some layering of the oxides with lepidocrocite and akaganeite closer to the surface. The fraction of akaganeite phase increased at sites with higher chloride concentrations. A detailed analysis on the development of the oxide phases as a function of exposure time and environmental conditions will be presented. (Author)

  14. Birth after previous cesarean delivery: short-term maternal outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lydon-Rochelle, Mona T; Cahill, Alison G; Spong, Catherine Y

    2010-08-01

    An estimated 40% of the 1.3 million cesarean deliveries performed each year in the United States are repeat procedures. The appropriate clinical management approach for women with previous cesarean delivery remains challenging because options are limited. The risks and benefits of clinical management choices in the woman's health need to be quantified. Thus, we discuss the available published scientific data on (1) the short-term maternal outcomes of trial of labor after cesarean and elective repeat cesarean delivery, (2) the differences between outcomes for both, (3) the important factors that influence these outcomes, and (4) successful vs. unsuccessful vaginal birth after cesarean. For women with a previous cesarean delivery, a successful trial of labor offers several distinct, consistently reproducible advantages compared with elective repeat cesarean delivery, including fewer hysterectomies, fewer thromboembolic events, lower blood transfusion rates, and shorter hospital stay. However, when trial of labor after cesarean fails, emergency cesarean is associated with increased uterine rupture, hysterectomy, operative injury, blood transfusion, endometritis, and longer hospital stay. Care of women with a history of previous cesarean delivery involves a confluence of interactions between medical and nonmedical factors; however, the most important determinants of the short-term outcomes among these women are likely individualized counseling, accurate clinical diagnoses, and careful management during a trial of labor. We recommend a randomized controlled trial among women undergoing a TOLAC and a longitudinal cohort study among women with previous cesarean to evaluate adverse outcomes, with focused attention on both mother and the infant.

  15. The IEA Model of Short-term Energy Security

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2011-07-01

    Ensuring energy security has been at the centre of the IEA mission since its inception, following the oil crises of the early 1970s. While the security of oil supplies remains important, contemporary energy security policies must address all energy sources and cover a comprehensive range of natural, economic and political risks that affect energy sources, infrastructures and services. In response to this challenge, the IEA is currently developing a Model Of Short-term Energy Security (MOSES) to evaluate the energy security risks and resilience capacities of its member countries. The current version of MOSES covers short-term security of supply for primary energy sources and secondary fuels among IEA countries. It also lays the foundation for analysis of vulnerabilities of electricity and end-use energy sectors. MOSES contains a novel approach to analysing energy security, which can be used to identify energy security priorities, as a starting point for national energy security assessments and to track the evolution of a country's energy security profile. By grouping together countries with similar 'energy security profiles', MOSES depicts the energy security landscape of IEA countries. By extending the MOSES methodology to electricity security and energy services in the future, the IEA aims to develop a comprehensive policy-relevant perspective on global energy security. This Working Paper is intended for readers who wish to explore the MOSES methodology in depth; there is also a brochure which provides an overview of the analysis and results.

  16. Short-term energy outlook, Annual supplement 1995

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1995-07-25

    This supplement is published once a year as a complement to the Short- Term Energy Outlook, Quarterly Projections. The purpose of the Supplement is to review the accuracy of the forecasts published in the Outlook, make comparisons with other independent energy forecasts, and examine current energy topics that affect the forecasts. Chap. 2 analyzes the response of the US petroleum industry to the recent four Federal environmental rules on motor gasoline. Chap. 3 compares the EIA base or mid case energy projections for 1995 and 1996 (as published in the first quarter 1995 Outlook) with recent projections made by four other major forecasting groups. Chap. 4 evaluates the overall accuracy. Chap. 5 presents the methology used in the Short- Term Integrated Forecasting Model for oxygenate supply/demand balances. Chap. 6 reports theoretical and empirical results from a study of non-transportation energy demand by sector. The empirical analysis involves the short-run energy demand in the residential, commercial, industrial, and electrical utility sectors in US.

  17. Short-Term Monocular Deprivation Enhances Physiological Pupillary Oscillations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paola Binda

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Short-term monocular deprivation alters visual perception in adult humans, increasing the dominance of the deprived eye, for example, as measured with binocular rivalry. This form of plasticity may depend upon the inhibition/excitation balance in the visual cortex. Recent work suggests that cortical excitability is reliably tracked by dilations and constrictions of the pupils of the eyes. Here, we ask whether monocular deprivation produces a systematic change of pupil behavior, as measured at rest, that is independent of the change of visual perception. During periods of minimal sensory stimulation (in the dark and task requirements (minimizing body and gaze movements, slow pupil oscillations, “hippus,” spontaneously appear. We find that hippus amplitude increases after monocular deprivation, with larger hippus changes in participants showing larger ocular dominance changes (measured by binocular rivalry. This tight correlation suggests that a single latent variable explains both the change of ocular dominance and hippus. We speculate that the neurotransmitter norepinephrine may be implicated in this phenomenon, given its important role in both plasticity and pupil control. On the practical side, our results indicate that measuring the pupil hippus (a simple and short procedure provides a sensitive index of the change of ocular dominance induced by short-term monocular deprivation, hence a proxy for plasticity.

  18. Cigarette smoking and short-term addiction treatment outcome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harrell, P T; Montoya, I D; Preston, K L; Juliano, L M; Gorelick, D A

    2011-06-01

    Cigarette smoking is common among patients in cocaine and opioid dependence treatment, and may influence treatment outcome. We addressed this issue in a secondary analysis of data from an outpatient clinical trial of buprenorphine treatment for concurrent cocaine and opioid dependence (13 weeks, N=200). The association between cigarette smoking (lifetime cigarette smoking status, number of cigarettes smoked per day prior to study entry) and short-term treatment outcome (% of urine samples positive for cocaine or opioids, treatment retention) was evaluated with analysis of covariance, bivariate correlations, and multivariate linear regression. Nicotine-dependent smokers (66% of participants) had a significantly higher percentage of cocaine-positive urine samples than non-smokers (12% of participants) (76% vs. 62%), but did not differ in percentage of opioid-positive urine samples or treatment retention. Number of cigarettes smoked per day at baseline was positively associated with percentage of cocaine-positive urine samples, even after controlling for baseline sociodemographic and drug use characteristics, but was not significantly associated with percentage of opioid-positive urine samples or treatment retention. These results suggest that cigarette smoking is associated with poorer short-term outcome of outpatient treatment for cocaine dependence, but perhaps not of concurrent opioid dependence, and support the importance of offering smoking cessation treatment to cocaine-dependent patients.

  19. Variability of Short-term Precipitation and Runoff in Small Czech Drainage Basins

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kavka, Petr; Strouhal, Luděk; Landa, Martin; Neuman, Martin; Kožant, Petr; Muller, Miloslav

    2016-04-01

    The aim of this contribution is to introduce the recently started three year's project named "Variability of Short-term Precipitation and Runoff in Small Czech Drainage Basins and its Influence on Water Resources Management". Its main goal is to elaborate a methodology and online utility for deriving short-term design precipitation series, which could be utilized by a broad community of scientists, state administration as well as design planners. The outcomes of the project will especially be helpful in modelling hydrological or soil erosion problems when designing common measures for promoting water retention or landscape drainage systems in or out of the scope of Landscape consolidation projects. The precipitation scenarios will be derived from 10 years of observed data from point gauging stations and radar data. The analysis is focused on events' return period, rainfall total amount, internal intensity distribution and spatial distribution over the area of Czech Republic. The methodology will account for the choice of the simulation model. Several representatives of practically oriented models will be tested for the output sensitivity to selected precipitation scenario comparing to variability connected with other inputs uncertainty. The variability of the outputs will also be assessed in the context of economic impacts in design of landscape water structures or mitigation measures. The research was supported by the grant QJ1520265 of the Czech Ministry of Agriculture, using data provided by the Czech Hydrometeorological Institute.

  20. Short-term contracts: Descending the career ladder

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griffin, Elizabeth

    2002-12-01

    Elizabeth Griffin brings a personal insight to the hurdles that women seeking a scientific career face, arguing that the only gender differences are those of attitude, tradition and style. The policy of employing some but not all academic researchers through short-term contracts is highly divisive, in that it creates a two-tier system not only of opportunities and expectations but also of personal worth and value. Far more women than men are trapped in these career cul-de-sacs, and a seriously large fraction is unable to stay in research until retirement. It is the employment policy that is at fault, not the potential of the researchers or the quality of their research.

  1. Short-Term Planning of Hybrid Power System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knežević, Goran; Baus, Zoran; Nikolovski, Srete

    2016-07-01

    In this paper short-term planning algorithm for hybrid power system consist of different types of cascade hydropower plants (run-of-the river, pumped storage, conventional), thermal power plants (coal-fired power plants, combined cycle gas-fired power plants) and wind farms is presented. The optimization process provides a joint bid of the hybrid system, and thus making the operation schedule of hydro and thermal power plants, the operation condition of pumped-storage hydropower plants with the aim of maximizing profits on day ahead market, according to expected hourly electricity prices, the expected local water inflow in certain hydropower plants, and the expected production of electrical energy from the wind farm, taking into account previously contracted bilateral agreement for electricity generation. Optimization process is formulated as hourly-discretized mixed integer linear optimization problem. Optimization model is applied on the case study in order to show general features of the developed model.

  2. Short-term Power Load Forecasting Based on Gray Theory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cui Herui

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available Power load forecasting provides the basis for the preparation of power planning, especially the accurate short-term power load forecasting. It can formulate power rationing program of area load reliably and timely, to maintain the normal production and life. This article describes the gray prediction method, and improves GM (1,1 model via processing the original data sequence smoothly, using the correction model of parameteramending parameter values​​, adding the residual model, and also applying the idea of the metabolism. It conducts an empirical analysis of the 10KV large cable of Guigang Power Supply Bureau in Nan Ping, and verifies the limitations of ordinary gray theory. The improved gray model has a higher prediction accuracy than the conventional GM (1,1 model.  

  3. The effects of short-term hypergravity on Caenorhabditis elegans

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saldanha, Jenifer N.; Pandey, Santosh; Powell-Coffman, Jo Anne

    2016-08-01

    As we seek to recognize the opportunities of advanced aerospace technologies and spaceflight, it is increasingly important to understand the impacts of hypergravity, defined as gravitational forces greater than those present on the earth's surface. The nematode Caenorhabditis elegans has been established as a powerful model to study the effects of altered gravity regimens and has displayed remarkable resilience to space travel. In this study, we investigate the effects of short-term and defined hypergravity exposure on C. elegans motility, brood size, pharyngeal pumping rates, and lifespan. The results from this study advance our understanding of the effects of shorter durations of exposure to increased gravitational forces on C. elegans, and also contribute to the growing body of literature on the impacts of altered gravity regimens on earth's life forms.

  4. Short-Term Test Results. Multifamily Home Energy Efficiency Retrofit

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lyons, James [Building America Partnership for Improved Residential Construction (BA-PIRC), Cocoa, FL (United States)

    2013-01-01

    Multifamily deep energy retrofits (DERs) represent great potential for energy savings, while also providing valuable insights on research-generated efficiency measures, cost-effectiveness metrics, and risk factor strategies for the multifamily housing industry. This report describes the Bay Ridge project, a base scope retrofit with a goal of achieving 30% savings (relative to pre-retrofit), and a DER scope with a goal of 50% savings (relative to pre-retrofit). Findings from the short-term testing at Bay Ridge include air infiltration reductions of greater than 60% in the DER building; a hybrid heat pump system with a Savings to Investment Ratio (SIR) > 1 (relative to a high efficiency furnace) which also provides the resident with added incentive for energy savings; and duct leakage reductions of > 60% using an aerosolized duct sealing approach.

  5. Short-Term Test Results. Multifamily Home Energy Efficiency Retrofit

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lyons, James [Building America Partnership for Improved Residential Construction (BA-PIRC), Cocoa, FL (United States)

    2013-01-01

    Multifamily deep energy retrofits (DERs) represent great potential for energy savings, while also providing valuable insights on research-generated efficiency measures, cost-effectiveness metrics, and risk factor strategies for the multifamily housing industry. This report describes the Bay Ridge project, a base scope retrofit with a goal of achieving 30% savings (relative to pre-retrofit), and a DER scope with a goal of 50% savings (relative to pre-retrofit). Findings from the short-term testing at Bay Ridge include air infiltration reductions of greater than 60% in the DER building; a hybrid heat pump system with a Savings to Investment Ratio (SIR) > 1 (relative to a high efficiency furnace) which also provides the resident with added incentive for energy savings; and duct leakage reductions of > 60% using an aerosolized duct sealing approach.

  6. Short-term cost of suicides in India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gopala Sarma Poduri

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: India is experiencing increasing suicides that have much economic impact. Objective: To calculate the short-term costs of suicide in India. Materials and Methods: All the official data of suicides in India in 2014 formed the base of computation. Both direct and indirect costs were computed basing on market rates and official estimates. Perceived gains were deducted to arrive at the total cost. Results: The contribution of middle age group in the loss was high. Each suicide costs ' 2.65 L and the total cost of suicide in 2014 amounts to ' 348842.65 L in the first year. Conclusion: Much suffering and burden on individuals, family, and society can be reduced if adequate treatment facilities for psychiatry patients are made available at affordable rates everywhere. This should be complemented by much needed public education.

  7. The role of short-term memory in semantic priming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beer, A L; Diehl, V A

    2001-07-01

    Two theories of priming were compared: spreading activation theories, in particular ACT, and compound-cue theories. Whereas ACT assumes that priming is a result of diffusing activation in long-term memory, compound-cue models suggest that priming results from a formation process of prime and target in short-term memory. Thirty-eight participants took part in a study that combined a digit span task with a double lexical decision task consisting of a prime and a target item. Digit span length (low, medium, and high) and prime type (related or unrelated word or nonword) were both within-subject variables. As expected, results showed significant priming effects. In favor of ACT, no interaction between digit span length and prime type was found. Additionally, a nonword inhibition effect (unrelated versus nonword prime) was found, which was predicted by compound-cue theories. This finding is discussed in terms of the process interference and response competition hypotheses.

  8. Short Term Load Forecast Using Wavelet Neural Network

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Gui Min; Rong Fei; Luo An

    2005-01-01

    This paper presents a wavelet neural network (WNN) model combining wavelet transform and artificial neural networks for short term load forecast (STLF). Both historical load and temperature data having important impacts on load level were used in the proposed forecasting model. The model used the three-layer feed forward network trained by the error back-propagation algorithm. To enhance the forecasting accuracy by neural networks, wavelet multi-resolution analysis method was introduced to pre-process these data and reconstruct the predicted output. The proposed model has been evaluated with actual data of electricity load and temperature of Hunan Province. The simulation results show that the model is capable of providing a reasonable forecasting accuracy in STLF.

  9. Effective Short-term Forecasting of Wind Farms Power

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elżbieta Bogalecka

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Forecasting a specific wind farm’s (WF generation capacity within a 24 hour perspective requires both a reliable forecast of wind, as well as supporting tools. This tool is a dedicated model of wind farm power. This model should include not only general rules of wind to mechanical energy conversion, but also the farm’s specific features. There are many factors that influence a farm’s generation capacity, and any forecast of it, even with an accurate weather forecast, carries error. This paper presents analytical, statistical, and neuron models of wind farm power. The study is based on data from a real wind farm. Most attention is paid to the neuron models, due to a neuron network’s capability to restore farm-specific details. The research aims to answer the headline question: whether and to what extent a wind farm’s power can be forecast short-term?

  10. IMPLEMENTATION OF TRENDS OF MANAGEMENT ACCOUNTING IN SHORT TERM DECISIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kupina V. V.

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The article, based on the concept of operating leverage, gives the examples of the use of quantitative measurements of the dependence costs, sales and profits, and formulated the direction of using the results in the adoption of short-term management decisions. We present recommended forms of management reporting, report on the cash flow, balance sheet management and management reports on the financial results, as well as giving some examples of division of fixed (semi-variable costs of fixed and variable parts and bringing them into the form of a linear function. The article describes several methods for solving this problem: the method of the highest and lowest points, linear regression (least squares and graphical method

  11. Short-term facilitation may stabilize parametric working memory trace

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vladimir eItskov

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Networks with continuous set of attractors are considered to be a paradigmatic model for parametric working memory, but require fine-tuning of connections and are thus structurally unstable. Here we analyzed the network with ring attractor, where connections are not perfectly tuned and the activity state therefore drifts in the absence of the stabilizing stimulus. We derive an analytical expression for the drift dynamics and conclude that the network cannot function as working memory for a period of several seconds, a typical delay time in monkey memory experiments. We propose that short-term synaptic facilitation in recurrent connections significantly improves the robustness of the model by slowing down the drift of activity bump. Extending the calculation of the drift velocity to network with synaptic facilitation, we conclude that facilitation can slow down the drift by a large factor, rendering the network suitable as a model of working memory.

  12. Working memory training improves visual short-term memory capacity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwarb, Hillary; Nail, Jayde; Schumacher, Eric H

    2016-01-01

    Since antiquity, philosophers, theologians, and scientists have been interested in human memory. However, researchers today are still working to understand the capabilities, boundaries, and architecture. While the storage capabilities of long-term memory are seemingly unlimited (Bahrick, J Exp Psychol 113:1-2, 1984), working memory, or the ability to maintain and manipulate information held in memory, seems to have stringent capacity limits (e.g., Cowan, Behav Brain Sci 24:87-185, 2001). Individual differences, however, do exist and these differences can often predict performance on a wide variety of tasks (cf. Engle What is working-memory capacity? 297-314, 2001). Recently, researchers have promoted the enticing possibility that simple behavioral training can expand the limits of working memory which indeed may also lead to improvements on other cognitive processes as well (cf. Morrison and Chein, Psychol Bull Rev 18:46-60 2011). However, initial investigations across a wide variety of cognitive functions have produced mixed results regarding the transferability of training-related improvements. Across two experiments, the present research focuses on the benefit of working memory training on visual short-term memory capacity-a cognitive process that has received little attention in the training literature. Data reveal training-related improvement of global measures of visual short-term memory as well as of measures of the independent sub-processes that contribute to capacity (Awh et al., Psychol Sci 18(7):622-628, 2007). These results suggest that the ability to inhibit irrelevant information within and between trials is enhanced via n-back training allowing for selective improvement on untrained tasks. Additionally, we highlight a potential limitation of the standard adaptive training procedure and propose a modified design to ensure variability in the training environment.

  13. Auditory short-term memory in the primate auditory cortex.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scott, Brian H; Mishkin, Mortimer

    2016-06-01

    Sounds are fleeting, and assembling the sequence of inputs at the ear into a coherent percept requires auditory memory across various time scales. Auditory short-term memory comprises at least two components: an active ׳working memory' bolstered by rehearsal, and a sensory trace that may be passively retained. Working memory relies on representations recalled from long-term memory, and their rehearsal may require phonological mechanisms unique to humans. The sensory component, passive short-term memory (pSTM), is tractable to study in nonhuman primates, whose brain architecture and behavioral repertoire are comparable to our own. This review discusses recent advances in the behavioral and neurophysiological study of auditory memory with a focus on single-unit recordings from macaque monkeys performing delayed-match-to-sample (DMS) tasks. Monkeys appear to employ pSTM to solve these tasks, as evidenced by the impact of interfering stimuli on memory performance. In several regards, pSTM in monkeys resembles pitch memory in humans, and may engage similar neural mechanisms. Neural correlates of DMS performance have been observed throughout the auditory and prefrontal cortex, defining a network of areas supporting auditory STM with parallels to that supporting visual STM. These correlates include persistent neural firing, or a suppression of firing, during the delay period of the memory task, as well as suppression or (less commonly) enhancement of sensory responses when a sound is repeated as a ׳match' stimulus. Auditory STM is supported by a distributed temporo-frontal network in which sensitivity to stimulus history is an intrinsic feature of auditory processing. This article is part of a Special Issue entitled SI: Auditory working memory.

  14. Short-term regulation of adiponectin secretion in rat adipocytes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Szkudelski, T; Nogowski, L; Szkudelska, K

    2011-01-01

    Adiponectin belongs to the group of biologically active substances secreted by adipocytes and referred to as adipokines. Disturbances in its secretion and/or action are thought to be involved in the pathogenesis of some metabolic diseases. However, regulation of adiponectin secretion is poorly elucidated. In the present study, short-term regulation of adiponectin secretion in primary rat adipocytes was investigated. Isolated rat adipocytes were incubated in Krebs-Ringer buffer containing 5 mM glucose and insulin alone or in the combination with epinephrine, dibutyryl-cAMP, adenosine A(1) receptor antagonist (DPCPX), palmitate, 2-bromopalmitate or inhibitor of mitochondrial electron transport (rotenone). Adipocyte exposure for 2 h to insulin (1-100 nM) significantly increased secretion of adiponectin compared with secretion observed without insulin. Furthermore, secretion of adiponectin from adipocytes incubated with glucose and insulin was reduced by 1 and 2 microM epinephrine, but not by 0.25 and 0.5 microM epinephrine. Under similar conditions, 1 and 2 mM dibutyryl-cAMP substantially diminished secretion of adiponectin, whereas 0.5 mM dibutyryl-cAMP was ineffective. Secretion of adiponectin was found to be effectively decreased by DPCPX. Moreover, adipocyte exposure to rotenone also resulted in a substantial diminution of secretory response of adipocytes incubated for 2 h with glucose and insulin. It was also demonstrated that palmitate and 2-bromopalmitate (0.06-0.5 mM) failed to affect secretion of leptin. The obtained results indicated that in short-term regulation of adiponectin secretion, insulin and epinephrine exert the opposite effects. These effects appeared as early as after 2 h of exposure. Moreover, deprivation of energy or blockade of adenosine action substantially decreased secretion of adiponectin.

  15. Reconciling long-term cultural diversity and short-term collective social behavior

    CERN Document Server

    Valori, Luca; Allansdottir, Agnes; Garlaschelli, Diego

    2011-01-01

    An outstanding open problem is whether collective social phenomena occurring over short timescales can systematically reduce cultural heterogeneity in the long run, and whether offline and online human interactions contribute differently to the process. Theoretical models suggest that short-term collective behavior and long-term cultural diversity are mutually excluding, since they require very different levels of social influence. The latter jointly depends on two factors: the topology of the underlying social network and the overlap between individuals in multidimensional cultural space. However, while the empirical properties of social networks are well understood, little is known about the large-scale organization of real societies in cultural space, so that random input specifications are necessarily used in models. Here we use a large dataset to perform a high-dimensional analysis of the scientific beliefs of thousands of Europeans. We find that inter-opinion correlations determine a nontrivial ultramet...

  16. Short-term variability of fetal heart rate in cholestasis of pregnancy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ammälä, P; Kariniemi, V

    1981-09-15

    Maternal cholestasis affects about 1% of pregnancies in Finland. Although maternal prognosis in obstetric cholestasis is always good, an increased fetal risk has been reported by several authors. In this paper the differential index (DI), describing the short-term variability of fetal heart rate, was measured in 64 pregnancies with colestasis of pregnancy by a microprocessor-based "on-line" method, which uses abdominal fetal electrocardiogram as a triggering signal. The analysis was successfull in 117 of 131 trials. In five pregnancies no successful analysis was obtained. Fetal distress developed in five fetuses of 59 but not perinatal deaths occurred. The sensitivity of the antepartum DI in predicting fetal distress in labor was 80% and the predictive value was 44%. The relative risk for intrapartum fetal distress in labor after a pathologic antepartal DI compared with normal DI was 22, which is highly significant (p less than 0.001).

  17. Reconciling long-term cultural diversity and short-term collective social behavior.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valori, Luca; Picciolo, Francesco; Allansdottir, Agnes; Garlaschelli, Diego

    2012-01-24

    An outstanding open problem is whether collective social phenomena occurring over short timescales can systematically reduce cultural heterogeneity in the long run, and whether offline and online human interactions contribute differently to the process. Theoretical models suggest that short-term collective behavior and long-term cultural diversity are mutually excluding, since they require very different levels of social influence. The latter jointly depends on two factors: the topology of the underlying social network and the overlap between individuals in multidimensional cultural space. However, while the empirical properties of social networks are intensively studied, little is known about the large-scale organization of real societies in cultural space, so that random input specifications are necessarily used in models. Here we use a large dataset to perform a high-dimensional analysis of the scientific beliefs of thousands of Europeans. We find that interopinion correlations determine a nontrivial ultrametric hierarchy of individuals in cultural space. When empirical data are used as inputs in models, ultrametricity has strong and counterintuitive effects. On short timescales, it facilitates a symmetry-breaking phase transition triggering coordinated social behavior. On long timescales, it suppresses cultural convergence by restricting it within disjoint groups. Moreover, ultrametricity implies that these results are surprisingly robust to modifications of the dynamical rules considered. Thus the empirical distribution of individuals in cultural space appears to systematically optimize the coexistence of short-term collective behavior and long-term cultural diversity, which can be realized simultaneously for the same moderate level of mutual influence in a diverse range of online and offline settings.

  18. Short-Term International Internship Experiences for Future Teachers and Other Child Development Professionals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Kari Knutson; Gonzalez, Amber M.

    2016-01-01

    This paper examines outcomes associated with participation in short-term, international internship experiences. Results suggest short-term international internship experiences contribute to rich personal and professional development outcomes. Findings highlight participant challenges associated with initial internship experiences, professional…

  19. Short-term traffic safety forecasting using Gaussian mixture model and Kalman filter

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Sheng JIN; Dian-hai WANG; Cheng XU; Dong-fang MA

    2013-01-01

    In this paper; a prediction model is developed that combines a Gaussian mixture model (GMM) and a Kalman filter for online forecasting of traffic safety on expressways.Raw time-to-collision (TTC) samples are divided into two categories:those representing vehicles in risky situations and those in safe situations.Then,the GMM is used to model the bimodal distribution of the TTC samples,and the maximum likelihood (ML) estimation parameters of the TTC distribution are obtained using the expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm.We propose a new traffic safety indicator,named the proportion of exposure to traffic conflicts (PETTC),for assessing the risk and predicting the safety of expressway traffic.A Kalman filter is applied to forecast the short-term safety indicator,PETTC,and solves the online safety prediction problem.A dataset collected from four different expressway locations is used for performance estimation.The test results demonstrate the precision and robustness of the prediction model under different traffic conditions and using different datasets.These results could help decision-makers to improve their online traffic safety forecasting and enable the optimal operation of expressway traffic management systems.

  20. 22 CFR 71.11 - Short-term full diet program.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 22 Foreign Relations 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Short-term full diet program. 71.11 Section 71.... Nationals Incarcerated Abroad § 71.11 Short-term full diet program. (a) Eligibility criteria. A prisoner is considered eligible for the short-term full diet program under the following general criteria: (1)...

  1. 47 CFR 1.9035 - Short-term de facto transfer leasing arrangements.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 47 Telecommunication 1 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Short-term de facto transfer leasing... PROCEDURE Spectrum Leasing General Policies and Procedures § 1.9035 Short-term de facto transfer leasing...) and a spectrum lessee may enter into a short-term de facto transfer leasing arrangement in which...

  2. Short-Term Effects of Midseason Coach Turnover on Team Performance in Soccer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balduck, Anne-Line; Buelens, Marc; Philippaerts, Renaat

    2010-01-01

    The present study addressed the issue of short-term performance effects of midseason coach turnover in soccer. The goal of this study was to examine this effect on subsequent short-term team performance. The purposes of this study were to (a) examine whether midseason coach turnover improved results in the short term, and (b) examine how team…

  3. Short-Term Effects of Midseason Coach Turnover on Team Performance in Soccer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balduck, Anne-Line; Buelens, Marc; Philippaerts, Renaat

    2010-01-01

    The present study addressed the issue of short-term performance effects of midseason coach turnover in soccer. The goal of this study was to examine this effect on subsequent short-term team performance. The purposes of this study were to (a) examine whether midseason coach turnover improved results in the short term, and (b) examine how team…

  4. Short term Variability of the Sun Earth System: An Overview of Progress Made during the CAWSES II Period

    CERN Document Server

    Gopalswamy, Nat; Yan, Yihua

    2015-01-01

    This paper presents an overview of results obtained during the CAWSES II period on the short term variability of the Sun and how it affects the near Earth space environment. CAWSES II was planned to examine the behavior of the solar terrestrial system as the solar activity climbed to its maximum phase in solar cycle 24. After a deep minimum following cycle 23, the Sun climbed to a very weak maximum in terms of the sunspot number in cycle 24 (MiniMax24), so many of the results presented here refer to this weak activity in comparison with cycle 23. The short term variability that has immediate consequence to Earth and geospace manifests as solar eruptions from closed field regions and high speed streams from coronal holes. Both electromagnetic (flares) and mass emissions (coronal mass ejections, CMEs) are involved in solar eruptions, while coronal holes result in high speed streams that collide with slow wind forming the so called corotating interaction regions (CIRs). Fast CMEs affect Earth via leading shocks ...

  5. Reducing variability in short term orbital lifetime prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kebschull, Christopher; Flegel, Sven Kevin; Braun, Vitali; Gelhaus, Johannes; Möckel, Marek; Wiedemann, Carsten; Vörsmann, Peter

    2013-04-01

    Within the last year three major re-entries occurred. The satellites UARS, ROSAT and Phobos-Grunt entered Earth's atmosphere with fragments reaching the surface. Due to a number of uncertainties in propagating an object's trajectory the exact place and time of a satellite's re-entry is hard to determine. Major influences when predicting the re-entry time are the changing precision of the available orbital data, the satellite's ballistic coefficient, the activity of the sun which influences the Earth's atmosphere and the underlying quality of the atmospheric model. In this paper a method is presented which can reduce the variability in short-term orbital lifetime prediction induced by fluctuating orbital data accuracies. A re-entry campaign is used as a reference for this purpose. For a window of a few weeks before the re-entry the position data of a synthetic object is disturbed considering different degrees of orbital data errors. As a result different predictions will exist for the generated position data of a given day. Using a regression algorithm on the available data an average position is obtained, which is then used for the orbital lifetime prediction. The effect of this measure is a more consistent prediction of the orbital lifetime. The paper concludes with the comparison of the generated re-entry windows in various test cases for the original and the averaged data.

  6. Short-term stress: the case of transport and slaughter

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leonardo Nanni Costa

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Short-term stressors such as transport and slaughter include psychological and physical stimuli that might be aversive for the animals. Restraint, manipulation and sudden change lead to fear, or psychological stress, while hunger, thirst, fatigue, injury and extreme thermal conditions are considered as physical stresses. Animal responses to these stimuli include behavioural and physiological changes devoted to coping with adverse situations. If the recovery or the adaptation fails, the consequences can be extremely serious, ranging from weight loss and death to impaired carcass and meat quality. As the stress during transport and slaughter is unavoidable, only the knowledge of the physiological and behavioural needs of the animals during all procedures from pre-transport handling to stunning, together with the correct use of the facilities for handling and transportation, can minimize the intensity and the duration of stress. The final goal is to improve transport and slaughter conditions for the animal and, as a consequence, animal welfare and meat quality.

  7. Leukocyte subsets and neutrophil function after short-term spaceflight

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stowe, R. P.; Sams, C. F.; Mehta, S. K.; Kaur, I.; Jones, M. L.; Feeback, D. L.; Pierson, D. L.

    1999-01-01

    Changes in leukocyte subpopulations and function after spaceflight have been observed but the mechanisms underlying these changes are not well defined. This study investigated the effects of short-term spaceflight (8-15 days) on circulating leukocyte subsets, stress hormones, immunoglobulin levels, and neutrophil function. At landing, a 1.5-fold increase in neutrophils was observed compared with preflight values; lymphocytes were slightly decreased, whereas the results were variable for monocytes. No significant changes were observed in plasma levels of immunoglobulins, cortisol, or adrenocorticotropic hormone. In contrast, urinary epinephrine, norepinephrine, and cortisol were significantly elevated at landing. Band neutrophils were observed in 9 of 16 astronauts. Neutrophil chemotactic assays showed a 10-fold decrease in the optimal dose response after landing. Neutrophil adhesion to endothelial cells was increased both before and after spaceflight. At landing, the expression of MAC-1 was significantly decreased while L-selectin was significantly increased. These functional alterations may be of clinical significance on long-duration space missions.

  8. Short-Term Dynamical Interactions Among Extrasolar Planets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laughlin, Gregory; Chambers, John E.; DiVincenzi, Donald (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    We show that short-term perturbations among massive planets in multiple planet systems can result in radial velocity variations of the central star which differ substantially from velocity variations derived assuming the planets are executing independent Keplerian motions. We discuss two alternate fitting methods which can lead to an improved dynamical description of multiple planet systems. In the first method, the osculating orbital elements are determined via a Levenberg-Marquardt minimization scheme driving an N-body integrator. The second method is an improved analytic model in which orbital elements such as the periods and longitudes of periastron are allowed to vary according to a simple model for resonant interactions between the planets. Both of these methods can potentially determine the true masses for the planets by eliminating the sin(i) degeneracy inherent in fits that assume independent Keplerian motions. As more radial velocity data is accumulated from stars such as GJ876, these methods should allow for unambiguous determination of the planetary masses and relative inclinations.

  9. Short term effect of hubble-bubble smoking on voice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamdan, A-L; Sibai, A; Mahfoud, L; Oubari, D; Ashkar, J; Fuleihan, N

    2011-05-01

    To investigate the short term effect of hubble-bubble smoking on voice. Prospective study. Eighteen non-dysphonic subjects (seven men and 11 women) with a history of hubble-bubble smoking and no history of cigarette smoking underwent acoustic analysis and laryngeal video-stroboscopic examination before and 30 minutes after hubble-bubble smoking. On laryngeal video-stroboscopy, none of the subjects had vocal fold erythema either before or after smoking. Five patients had mild vocal fold oedema both before and after smoking. After smoking, there was a slight increase in the number of subjects with thick mucus between the vocal folds (six, vs four before smoking) and with vocal fold vessel dilation (two, vs one before smoking). Acoustic analysis indicated a drop in habitual pitch, fundamental frequency and voice turbulence index after smoking, and an increase in noise-to-harmonics ratio. Even 30 minutes of hubble-bubble smoking can cause a drop in vocal pitch and an increase in laryngeal secretions and vocal fold vasodilation.

  10. Short-term energy outlook, quarterly projections, first quarter 1998

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1998-01-01

    The forecast period for this issue of the Outlook extends from the first quarter of 1998 through the fourth quarter of 1999. Values for the fourth quarter of 1997, however, are preliminary EIA estimates (for example, some monthly values for petroleum supply and disposition are derived in part from weekly data reported in EIA`s Weekly Petroleum Status Report) or are calculated from model simulations that use the latest exogenous information available (for example, electricity sales and generation are simulated by using actual weather data). The historical energy data, compiled in the first quarter 1998 version of the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) database, are mostly EIA data regularly published in the Monthly Energy Review, Petroleum Supply Monthly, and other EIA publications. Minor discrepancies between the data in these publications and the historical data in this Outlook are due to independent rounding. The STIFS model is driven principally by three sets of assumptions or inputs: estimates of key macroeconomic variables, world oil price assumptions, and assumptions about the severity of weather. Macroeconomic estimates are adjusted by EIA to reflect EIA assumptions which may affect the macroeconomic outlook. By varying the assumptions, alternative cases are produced by using the STIFS model. 24 figs., 19 tabs.

  11. Short term pumped storage scheduling using two proposed techniques

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M.M. Salama, M.M. Elgazar, S.M. Abdelmaksoud, H.A. Henry

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, a genetic algorithm and constriction factor based particle swarm optimization technique are proposed for solving the short term pumped storage hydro thermal scheduling problem. The performance efficiency of the proposed techniques is demonstrated on hydrothermal test system comprising of five thermal units and one pumped storage power plant. A wide rang of thermal and hydraulic constraints are taken into consideration such as real power balance constraint, minimum and maximum limits of thermal units and pumped storage power plant, water discharge and water pumping rate limits and reservoir storage volume constraints. The simulation results obtained from the constriction factor based particle swarm optimization technique are compared with the outcomes obtained from the genetic algorithm in terms of cost saving and execution time to reveal the validity and verify the feasibility of the proposed methods. The test results show that the constriction factor based particle swarm optimization technique performs better than genetic algorithm in solving this problem in terms of cost saving and computational time.

  12. Multisensory integration in short-term memory: Musicians do rock.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aizenman, Avigael M; Gold, Jason M; Sekuler, Robert

    2017-04-29

    Demonstrated interactions between seeing and hearing led us to assess the link between music training and short-term memory for auditory, visual and audiovisual sequences of rapidly presented, quasi-random components. Visual sequences' components varied in luminance; auditory sequences' components varied in frequency. Concurrent components in audiovisual sequences were either congruent (the frequency of an auditory item increased monotonically with the luminance of the visual item it accompanied), or incongruent (an item's frequency was uncorrelated with luminance of the item it accompanied). Subjects judged whether the last four items in a sequence replicated its first four items. With audiovisual sequences, subjects were instructed to ignore the sequence's auditory components, basing their judgments solely on the visual input. Subjects with prior instrumental training significantly outperformed their untrained counterparts, with both auditory and visual sequences, and with sequences of correlated auditory and visual items. Reverse correlation showed that the presence of a correlated, concurrent auditory stream altered subjects' reliance on particular visual items in a sequence. Moreover, congruence between auditory and visual items produced performance above what would be predicted from simple summation of information from the two modalities, a result that might reflect a contribution from special-purpose, multimodal neural mechanisms. Copyright © 2017 IBRO. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Periodization of Carbohydrate Intake: Short-Term Effect on Performance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marquet, Laurie-Anne; Hausswirth, Christophe; Molle, Odeline; Hawley, John A.; Burke, Louise M.; Tiollier, Eve; Brisswalter, Jeanick

    2016-01-01

    Background: “Sleep-low” consists of a sequential periodization of carbohydrate (CHO) availability—low glycogen recovery after “train high” glycogen-depleting interval training, followed by an overnight-fast and light intensity training (“train low”) the following day. This strategy leads to an upregulation of several exercise-responsive signaling proteins, but the chronic effect on performance has received less attention. We investigated the effects of short-term exposure to this strategy on endurance performance. Methods: Following training familiarization, 11 trained cyclists were divided into two groups for a one-week intervention—one group implemented three cycles of periodized CHO intake to achieve the sleep-low strategy over six training sessions (SL, CHO intake: 6 g·kg−1·day−1), whereas the control group consumed an even distribution of CHO over the day (CON). Tests were a 2 h submaximal ride and a 20 km time trial. Results: SL improved their performance (mean: +3.2%; p < 0.05) compared to CON. The improvement was associated with a change in pacing strategy with higher power output during the second part of the test. No change in substrate utilization was observed after the training period for either group. Conclusion: Implementing the “sleep-low” strategy for one week improved performance by the same magnitude previously seen in a three-week intervention, without any significant changes in selected markers of metabolism. PMID:27897989

  14. Short-term spectroscopic variability of Plaskett's star

    CERN Document Server

    Palate, Matthieu

    2014-01-01

    Context. Plaskett's star (HD47129) is a very massive O-star binary in a post Roche-lobe overflow stage. CoRoT observations of this system revealed photometric variability with a number of frequencies. Aims. The aim of this paper is to characterize the variations in spectroscopy and investigate their origin. Methods. To sample its short-term variability, HD47129 was intensively monitored during two spectroscopic campaigns of six nights each. The spectra were disentangled and Fourier analyses were performed to determine possible periodicities and to investigate the wavelength dependence of the phase constant and the amplitude of the periodicities. Results. Complex line profile variations are observed. Frequencies near 1.65, 0.82, and 0.37 d^-1 are detected consistently in the He i 4471, He ii 4542, and N iii 4510-4518 lines. These frequencies are consistent with those of the strongest signals detected in photometry. The possibilities that these variations stem from pulsations, a recently detected magnetic field...

  15. Probing short-term face memory in developmental prosopagnosia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shah, Punit; Gaule, Anne; Gaigg, Sebastian B; Bird, Geoffrey; Cook, Richard

    2015-03-01

    It has recently been proposed that the face recognition deficits seen in neurodevelopmental disorders may reflect impaired short-term face memory (STFM). For example, introducing a brief delay between the presentation of target and test faces seems to disproportionately impair matching or recognition performance in individuals with Autism Spectrum Disorders. The present study sought to determine whether deficits of STFM contribute to impaired face recognition seen in Developmental Prosopagnosia. To determine whether developmental prosopagnosics exhibit impaired STFM, the present study used a six-alternative-forced-choice match-to-sample procedure. Memory demand was manipulated by employing a short or long delay between the presentation of the target face, and the six test faces. Crucially, the perceptual demands were identical in both conditions, thereby allowing the independent contribution of STFM to be assessed. Prosopagnosics showed clear evidence of a category-specific impairment for face-matching in both conditions; they were both slower and less accurate than matched controls. Crucially, however, the prosopagnosics showed no evidence of disproportionate face recognition impairment in the long-interval condition. While individuals with DP may have problems with the perceptual encoding of faces, it appears that their representations are stable over short durations. These results suggest that the face recognition difficulties seen in DP and autism may be qualitatively different, attributable to deficits of perceptual encoding and perceptual maintenance, respectively.

  16. Short term synaptic depression improves information transfer in perceptual multistability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zachary P Kilpatrick

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Competitive neural networks are often used to model the dynamics of perceptual bistability. Switching between percepts can occur through fluctuations and/or a slow adaptive process. Here, we analyze switching statistics in competitive networks with short term synaptic depression and noise. We start by analyzing a ring model that yields spatially structured solutions and complement this with a study of a space-free network whose populations are coupled with mutual inhibition. Dominance times arising from depression driven switching can be approximated using a separation of timescales in the ring and space-free model. For purely noise-driven switching, we derive approximate energy functions to justify how dominance times are exponentially related to input strength. We also show that a combination of depression and noise generates realistic distributions of dominance times. Unimodal functions of dominance times are more easily told apart by sampling, so switches induced by synaptic depression induced provide more information about stimuli than noise-driven switching. Finally, we analyze a competitive network model of perceptual tristability, showing depression generates a history-dependence in dominance switching.

  17. Short-term stabilization of grape marc through earthworms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gómez-Brandón, María; Lazcano, Cristina; Lores, Marta; Domínguez, Jorge

    2011-03-15

    The winery industry generates vast amounts of organic waste during the various stages of wine production. Among the possible methodological alternatives available for its treatment, vermicomposting is one of the best-known processes for the biological stabilization of solid organic wastes by transforming them into safer and more stabilized materials suitable for application to soil. In this study we carried out a mesocosm experiment to evaluate the effectiveness of the active phase of vermicomposting for the stabilization of grape marc, an enriched lignocellulosic by-product obtained after the grape crushing and pressing stages in wine production. For this we analysed the chemical, biochemical and microbiological properties of the product resulting from this phase, in comparison with those in a control treatment. Earthworm activity reduced the abundance of both bacterial and fungal PLFA biomarkers. Decreases in microbial activity and in protease and cellulase activities were also attributed to the presence of earthworms. The differences in microbial communities were accompanied by a reduction in the labile C pool and the cellulose content. These results indicate that earthworms played a key role in the stabilization of the grape marc in the short-term, via its effects on organic matter decomposition and microbial biomass and activity.

  18. Short-term uptake of heavy metals by periphyton algae

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vymazal, J.

    1984-12-31

    The utilization of periphyton for the removal of heavy metals from enriched small streams has been examined. By means of short-term batch laboratory experiments the courses of metal uptake have been studied. For uptake study naturally growing periphyton community and periphytic filamentous algae Cladophora glomerata and Oedogonium rivulare have been used. Uptakes of nine heavy metals (Pb, Cd, Cu, Co, Cr, Ni, Zn, Fe and Mn) have been determined during four hours exposure. In addition the influence of humic substances on heavy metals uptake has been determined. Uptake of all metals increased during four hours exposure but not in the same way. Some metals were removed continuously (Ni, Cr, Fe and Mn), other metals were removed more rapidly during the first hour or first two hours of exposure and then only slight removal continued (Cu, Pb, Cd, Co). Uptake of Zn was rather unambiguous. Results of these experiments suggest that the course of uptake for individual metals could be similar for most periphyton algae. It was established that humic substances significantly reduce heavy metals uptake. The highest decrease of uptake was observed in Cu, Cr, Co and Cd. The results of model experiments are being tested in a pilot scale with respect to the demands of engineering practice. (J.R.)

  19. Dimension-based attention in visual short-term memory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pilling, Michael; Barrett, Doug J K

    2016-07-01

    We investigated how dimension-based attention influences visual short-term memory (VSTM). This was done through examining the effects of cueing a feature dimension in two perceptual comparison tasks (change detection and sameness detection). In both tasks, a memory array and a test array consisting of a number of colored shapes were presented successively, interleaved by a blank interstimulus interval (ISI). In Experiment 1 (change detection), the critical event was a feature change in one item across the memory and test arrays. In Experiment 2 (sameness detection), the critical event was the absence of a feature change in one item across the two arrays. Auditory cues indicated the feature dimension (color or shape) of the critical event with 80 % validity; the cues were presented either prior to the memory array, during the ISI, or simultaneously with the test array. In Experiment 1, the cue validity influenced sensitivity only when the cue was given at the earliest position; in Experiment 2, the cue validity influenced sensitivity at all three cue positions. We attributed the greater effectiveness of top-down guidance by cues in the sameness detection task to the more active nature of the comparison process required to detect sameness events (Hyun, Woodman, Vogel, Hollingworth, & Luck, Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance, 35; 1140-1160, 2009).

  20. Short-term visual deprivation improves the perception of harmonicity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Landry, Simon P; Shiller, Douglas M; Champoux, François

    2013-12-01

    Neuroimaging studies have shown that the perception of auditory stimuli involves occipital cortical regions traditionally associated with visual processing, even in the absence of any overt visual component to the task. Analogous behavioral evidence of an interaction between visual and auditory processing during purely auditory tasks comes from studies of short-term visual deprivation on the perception of auditory cues, however, the results of such studies remain equivocal. Although some data have suggested that visual deprivation significantly increases loudness and pitch discrimination and reduces spatial localization inaccuracies, it is still unclear whether such improvement extends to the perception of spectrally complex cues, such as those involved in speech and music perception. We present data demonstrating that a 90-min period of visual deprivation causes a transient improvement in the perception of harmonicity: a spectrally complex cue that plays a key role in music and speech perception. The results provide clear behavioral evidence supporting a role for the visual system in the processing of complex auditory stimuli, even in the absence of any visual component to the task.

  1. Short-term dietary compensation in free-living adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKiernan, F; Hollis, J H; Mattes, R D

    2008-03-18

    Evidence suggests that compensatory behaviors operate in infants and pre-school children, such that the high variance characteristic of single eating occasions is much reduced over the day. However, the concept has not been fully explored in adults. The present within-subject, observational study investigated short-term dietary compensation patterns in fifty, weight-stable, normal weight (n=27), overweight (n=14), and obese (n=9) free-living adults (11 M, 39 F; age 30+/-11 y; BMI 26.3+/-5.9). Twenty four-hour diet recalls were obtained for 7 consecutive days, by the multi-pass technique. Each 24-h period was divided into 7 eating occasions. The coefficient of variation for energy intake was calculated for each adult, for each eating occasion, and over each 24-h period. Sub-group variability was assessed by BMI and frequency of consumption of sweetened energy-yielding beverages. The mean coefficient of variation for energy intake for the 7 eating occasions was 110.5%, compared to 28.9% for the day as a whole. Correlations between energy intakes at successive eating events were uniformly negative. No significant differences were noted in the sub-group analyses. Significantly greater variation in energy intake was noted for snacks compared to meals (Pindividual eating occasions, similar to the pattern previously observed in children. Further studies of compensatory responses by larger sub-groups of individuals at risk for weight gain are warranted.

  2. Dynamic Hybrid Model for Short-Term Electricity Price Forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marin Cerjan

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Accurate forecasting tools are essential in the operation of electric power systems, especially in deregulated electricity markets. Electricity price forecasting is necessary for all market participants to optimize their portfolios. In this paper we propose a hybrid method approach for short-term hourly electricity price forecasting. The paper combines statistical techniques for pre-processing of data and a multi-layer (MLP neural network for forecasting electricity price and price spike detection. Based on statistical analysis, days are arranged into several categories. Similar days are examined by correlation significance of the historical data. Factors impacting the electricity price forecasting, including historical price factors, load factors and wind production factors are discussed. A price spike index (CWI is defined for spike detection and forecasting. Using proposed approach we created several forecasting models of diverse model complexity. The method is validated using the European Energy Exchange (EEX electricity price data records. Finally, results are discussed with respect to price volatility, with emphasis on the price forecasting accuracy.

  3. A New Strategy for Short-Term Load Forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yi Yang

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Electricity is a special energy which is hard to store, so the electricity demand forecasting remains an important problem. Accurate short-term load forecasting (STLF plays a vital role in power systems because it is the essential part of power system planning and operation, and it is also fundamental in many applications. Considering that an individual forecasting model usually cannot work very well for STLF, a hybrid model based on the seasonal ARIMA model and BP neural network is presented in this paper to improve the forecasting accuracy. Firstly the seasonal ARIMA model is adopted to forecast the electric load demand day ahead; then, by using the residual load demand series obtained in this forecasting process as the original series, the follow-up residual series is forecasted by BP neural network; finally, by summing up the forecasted residual series and the forecasted load demand series got by seasonal ARIMA model, the final load demand forecasting series is obtained. Case studies show that the new strategy is quite useful to improve the accuracy of STLF.

  4. Audiovisual integration facilitates monkeys' short-term memory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bigelow, James; Poremba, Amy

    2016-07-01

    Many human behaviors are known to benefit from audiovisual integration, including language and communication, recognizing individuals, social decision making, and memory. Exceptionally little is known about the contributions of audiovisual integration to behavior in other primates. The current experiment investigated whether short-term memory in nonhuman primates is facilitated by the audiovisual presentation format. Three macaque monkeys that had previously learned an auditory delayed matching-to-sample (DMS) task were trained to perform a similar visual task, after which they were tested with a concurrent audiovisual DMS task with equal proportions of auditory, visual, and audiovisual trials. Parallel to outcomes in human studies, accuracy was higher and response times were faster on audiovisual trials than either unisensory trial type. Unexpectedly, two subjects exhibited superior unimodal performance on auditory trials, a finding that contrasts with previous studies, but likely reflects their training history. Our results provide the first demonstration of a bimodal memory advantage in nonhuman primates, lending further validation to their use as a model for understanding audiovisual integration and memory processing in humans.

  5. Optimize Short Term load Forcasting Anomalous Based Feed Forward Backpropagation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mulyadi, Y.; Abdullah, A. G.; Rohmah, K. A.

    2017-03-01

    This paper contains the Short-Term Load Forecasting (STLF) using artificial neural network especially feed forward back propagation algorithm which is particularly optimized in order to getting a reduced error value result. Electrical load forecasting target is a holiday that hasn’t identical pattern and different from weekday’s pattern, in other words the pattern of holiday load is an anomalous. Under these conditions, the level of forecasting accuracy will be decrease. Hence we need a method that capable to reducing error value in anomalous load forecasting. Learning process of algorithm is supervised or controlled, then some parameters are arranged before performing computation process. Momentum constant a value is set at 0.8 which serve as a reference because it has the greatest converge tendency. Learning rate selection is made up to 2 decimal digits. In addition, hidden layer and input component are tested in several variation of number also. The test result leads to the conclusion that the number of hidden layer impact on the forecasting accuracy and test duration determined by the number of iterations when performing input data until it reaches the maximum of a parameter value.

  6. Periodization of Carbohydrate Intake: Short-Term Effect on Performance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laurie-Anne Marquet

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Background: “Sleep-low” consists of a sequential periodization of carbohydrate (CHO availability—low glycogen recovery after “train high” glycogen-depleting interval training, followed by an overnight-fast and light intensity training (“train low” the following day. This strategy leads to an upregulation of several exercise-responsive signaling proteins, but the chronic effect on performance has received less attention. We investigated the effects of short-term exposure to this strategy on endurance performance. Methods: Following training familiarization, 11 trained cyclists were divided into two groups for a one-week intervention—one group implemented three cycles of periodized CHO intake to achieve the sleep-low strategy over six training sessions (SL, CHO intake: 6 g·kg−1·day−1, whereas the control group consumed an even distribution of CHO over the day (CON. Tests were a 2 h submaximal ride and a 20 km time trial. Results: SL improved their performance (mean: +3.2%; p < 0.05 compared to CON. The improvement was associated with a change in pacing strategy with higher power output during the second part of the test. No change in substrate utilization was observed after the training period for either group. Conclusion: Implementing the “sleep-low” strategy for one week improved performance by the same magnitude previously seen in a three-week intervention, without any significant changes in selected markers of metabolism.

  7. LISA Pathfinder test-mass charging during galactic cosmic-ray flux short-term variations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grimani, C.; Fabi, M.; Lobo, A.; Mateos, I.; Telloni, D.

    2015-02-01

    Metal free-floating test masses aboard the future interferometers devoted to gravitational wave detection in space are charged by galactic and solar cosmic rays with energies \\gt 100 MeV/n. This process represents one of the main sources of noise in the lowest frequency band (\\lt 10-3 Hz) of these experiments. We study here the charging of the LISA Pathfinder (LISA-PF) gold-platinum test masses due to galactic cosmic-ray (GCR) protons and helium nuclei with the Fluka Monte Carlo toolkit. Projections of the energy spectra of GCRs during the LISA-PF operations in 2015 are considered. This work was carried out on the basis of the solar activity level and solar polarity epoch expected for LISA-PF. The effects of GCR short-term variations are evaluated here for the first time. Classical Forbush decreases, GCR variations induced by the Sun rotation, and fluctuations in the LISA-PF frequency bandwidth are discussed.

  8. Short-term effects of endotracheal intubation on voice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamdan, Abdul-Latif; Sibai, Abla; Rameh, Charbel; Kanazeh, Ghassan

    2007-11-01

    The objective of this study was to examine the vocal symptoms and acoustic changes perceived in the short period after endotracheal intubation, and to find the association between these changes and the endotracheal tube parameters. A total of 35 subjects were included. They were examined preoperatively, and 2 and 24 hours postoperatively. The vocal symptoms of hoarseness, vocal fatigue, loss of voice, throat clearing, globus pharyngeus, throat pain, and the acoustic variables mainly average fundamental frequency, relative average perturbation, shimmer, noise to harmony ratio, voice turbulence index, habitual pitch, and maximum phonation time (MPT) were assessed as such and in relation to the following endotracheal tube parameters: duration of anesthesia, number of intubation attempts, size of the tube, cuff volume, cuff mean pressure, and the emergence. The association between anesthesia parameters with incidence of vocal complaints and changes in acoustic parameters were examined using logistic and linear regression. Vocal fatigue was associated significantly with the increase in cuff volume and the number of intubation attempts. Throat clearing was associated significantly with the increase in cuff mean pressure. Only the increase in habitual pitch was associated significantly with the increase in cuff volume. The acute short-term effect of endotracheal intubation on voice is significant. The most important endotracheal tube parameters that affect the vocal changes are the cuff mean pressure and volume. The laryngeal contribution to these vocal changes seems to be minimal. All vocal symptoms increased significantly except for globus pharyngeus at 2 hours postoperatively. The acoustic parameters did not change significantly except for a decrease in MPT. At 24 hours postoperatively, all vocal symptoms subsided with no significant difference to baseline value. The habitual pitch increased significantly, and the rest of the parameters remained comparable to baseline

  9. In vitro short-term platelet adhesion on various metals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tanaka, Yuta; Kurashima, Kazuya; Saito, Haruka; Nagai, Akiko; Tsutsumi, Yusuke; Doi, Hisashi; Nomura, Naoyuki; Hanawa, Takao

    2009-01-01

    The in vitro short-term platelet adhesion on various metals, as accelerated by the addition of Ca(2+), was evaluated in this study. Metals used for medical devices [an austenitic stainless steel, a cobalt (Co)-chromium (Cr)-molybdenum (Mo) alloy, a titanium (Ti)-6 aluminum (Al)-4 vanadium (V) alloy, a Ti-6Al-7 niobium (Nb) alloy, a Tinickel (Ni) alloy, and commercially pure Ti] were immersed into a platelet-rich plasma solution for 5 or 20 min, and platelet adhesion and aggregation on the surfaces were observed using a scanning electron microscope. The platelet adhesion level on each metal after 5 min of immersion in a platelet-rich plasma solution was the smallest in this order: stainless steel alloy alloy alloy alloy = Ti. The levels after 5 min of immersion were almost the same as those after 20 min of immersion. Platelet adhesion was minimal on stainless steel and Co-Cr-Mo alloy, which have a Cr(2)O(3)-containing passive surface oxide film, but was accelerated on Ti and Ti alloys having a TiO(2)-containing film. A Cr(2)O(3)-containing oxide film has a lower relative permittivity than a TiO(2)-containing film; it thus supports a larger electrostatic force than the latter, adsorbs more albumins, which work as inhibitory proteins, and inhibits platelet aggregation. Therefore, platelet adhesion and aggregation are controlled by the composition of the surface oxide film on a metal due to the relative permittivity of the metal, which influences the amount of adsorbed proteins.

  10. Nutritional status in short-term overtraining boxers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alexandrova, Albena; Petrov, Lubomir; Zaekov, Nikolay; Bozhkov, Borislav; Zsheliaskova-Koynova, Zshivka

    2017-03-01

    The diet is essential to the recovery process in athletes, especially those undergoing intensive training. The continuous imbalance between loading and recovery leads to development of overtraining syndrome. The purpose of this study was to establish the changes in the nutritional status of short-term overtrained athletes. Twelve boxers from the team of National Spoils Academy Sofia, Bulgaria during their preparation for the National Championship 2016 were studied. The measurements were conducted three times.in the beginning of preparation (T1), 22 days later (2) and 10 days after (32 days after first measurement), in the beginning of the recovery period, one week prior the competition (T3).The measurements included basic anthropometric data, overtraining questionnaire RESTO-Sport and nutrition questionnaire, plasma concentration of testosterone and cortisol.On the data of dietary survey the percent proportion and the amount of daily consumed proteins, fats and carbohydrates were defined and the energy intake of the tested athletes was calculated. According to the RESTO-Sport a significant decrease in the ratio stress/recovery was observed in the period with the heaviest training load T2, and an increase was estimated in the pre­competition recovery period T3. It was found a typical for the overtraining syndrome decrease in the concentration of testosterone and the ratio of testosterone/cortisol in T3. In some respondents a reduction in carbohydrates and proteins intake was observed in T2 and especially in T3, which correlates with the hormonal changes. In this work the diet changes was discussed as a possible consequence and/or a cause of the overtraining syndrome.

  11. Short-term intravenous interferon therapy for chronic hepatitis B

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Hiroaki Okushin; Toru Ohnishi; Kazuhiko Morii; Koichi Uesaka; Shiro Yuasa

    2008-01-01

    AIM: To investigate the therapeutic efficacy of short-term, multiple daily dosing of intravenous interferon (IFN)in patients with hepatitis B e antigen (HBeAg)-positive chronic hepatitis B.METHODS: IFN-β was intravenously administered at a total dose of 102 million international units (MIU) over a period of 28 d in 26 patients positive for HBeAg and HBV-DNA. IFN-beta was administered at doses of 2 MIU and 1 MIU on d 1, 3 MIU twice daily from d 2 to d 7,and 1 MIU thrice daily from d 8 to d 28. Patients were followed up for 24 wk after the end of treatment.RESULTS: Six months after the end of the treatment,loss of HBV-DNA occurred in 13 (50.0%) of the 26 patients, loss of HBeAg in 9 (34.6%), development of anti-HBe in 10 (38.5%), HBeAg seroconversion in 8 (30.8%), and normalization of alanine aminotransferase (ALT) levels in 11 (42.0%).CONCLUSION: This 4-wk long IFN-β therapy, which was much shorter than conventional therapy lasting 12 wk or even more than 1 year, produced therapeutic effects similar to those achieved by IFN-α or pegylatedIFN-α (peg-IFN). Fewer adverse effects, greater efficacy,and a shorter treatment period led to an improvement in patients' quality of life. IFN-β is administered intravenously, whereas IFN-α is administered intramuscularly or subcutaneously. Because both interferons are known to bind to an identical receptor and exert antiviral effects through intracellular signal transduction, the excellent results of IFN-β found in this study may be attributed to the multiple doses allowed by the intravenous route.

  12. Short-term effect of antibiotics on human gut microbiota.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Suchita Panda

    Full Text Available From birth onwards, the human gut microbiota rapidly increases in diversity and reaches an adult-like stage at three years of age. After this age, the composition may fluctuate in response to external factors such as antibiotics. Previous studies have shown that resilience is not complete months after cessation of the antibiotic intake. However, little is known about the short-term effects of antibiotic intake on the gut microbial community. Here we examined the load and composition of the fecal microbiota immediately after treatment in 21 patients, who received broad-spectrum antibiotics such as fluoroquinolones and β-lactams. A fecal sample was collected from all participants before treatment and one week after for microbial load and community composition analyses by quantitative PCR and pyrosequencing of the 16S rRNA gene, respectively. Fluoroquinolones and β-lactams significantly decreased microbial diversity by 25% and reduced the core phylogenetic microbiota from 29 to 12 taxa. However, at the phylum level, these antibiotics increased the Bacteroidetes/Firmicutes ratio (p = 0.0007, FDR = 0.002. At the species level, our findings unexpectedly revealed that both antibiotic types increased the proportion of several unknown taxa belonging to the Bacteroides genus, a Gram-negative group of bacteria (p = 0.0003, FDR<0.016. Furthermore, the average microbial load was affected by the treatment. Indeed, the β-lactams increased it significantly by two-fold (p = 0.04. The maintenance of or possible increase detected in microbial load and the selection of Gram-negative over Gram-positive bacteria breaks the idea generally held about the effect of broad-spectrum antibiotics on gut microbiota.

  13. Frailty as a predictor of short-term adverse outcomes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tiago Coelho

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available The objectives of this study were to compare how different frailty measures (Frailty Phenotype/FP, Groningen Frailty Indicator/GFI and Tilburg Frailty Indicator/TFI predict short-term adverse outcomes. Secondarily, adopting a multidimensional approach to frailty (integral conceptual model–TFI, this study aims to compare how physical, psychological and social frailty predict the outcomes. A longitudinal study was carried out with 95 community-dwelling elderly. Participants were assessed at baseline for frailty, determinants of frailty, and adverse outcomes (healthcare utilization, quality of life, disability in basic and instrumental activities of daily living/ADL and IADL. Ten months later the outcomes were assessed again. Frailty was associated with specific healthcare utilization indicators: the FP with a greater utilization of informal care; GFI with an increased contact with healthcare professionals; and TFI with a higher amount of contacts with a general practitioner. After controlling for the effect of life-course determinants, comorbidity and adverse outcome at baseline, GFI predicted IADL disability and TFI predicted quality of life. The effect of the FP on the outcomes was not significant, when compared with the other measures. However, when comparing TFI’s domains, the physical domain was the most significant predictor of the outcomes, even explaining part of the variance of ADL disability. Frailty at baseline was associated with adverse outcomes at follow-up. However, the relationship of each frailty measure (FP, GFI and TFI with the outcomes was different. In spite of the role of psychological frailty, TFI’s physical domain was the determinant factor for predicting disability and most of the quality of life.

  14. Short-term wind speed predictions with machine learning techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghorbani, M. A.; Khatibi, R.; FazeliFard, M. H.; Naghipour, L.; Makarynskyy, O.

    2016-02-01

    Hourly wind speed forecasting is presented by a modeling study with possible applications to practical problems including farming wind energy, aircraft safety and airport operations. Modeling techniques employed in this paper for such short-term predictions are based on the machine learning techniques of artificial neural networks (ANNs) and genetic expression programming (GEP). Recorded values of wind speed were used, which comprised 8 years of collected data at the Kersey site, Colorado, USA. The January data over the first 7 years (2005-2011) were used for model training; and the January data for 2012 were used for model testing. A number of model structures were investigated for the validation of the robustness of these two techniques. The prediction results were compared with those of a multiple linear regression (MLR) method and with the Persistence method developed for the data. The model performances were evaluated using the correlation coefficient, root mean square error, Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient and Akaike information criterion. The results indicate that forecasting wind speed is feasible using past records of wind speed alone, but the maximum lead time for the data was found to be 14 h. The results show that different techniques would lead to different results, where the choice between them is not easy. Thus, decision making has to be informed of these modeling results and decisions should be arrived at on the basis of an understanding of inherent uncertainties. The results show that both GEP and ANN are equally credible selections and even MLR should not be dismissed, as it has its uses.

  15. Algorithms for short-term production planning of cogeneration plants

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dotzauer, E.

    1998-03-01

    A cogeneration plant, feeding its output water into a district-heating network, may include several types of energy producing units. The most important being the Co-generation unit, which produces both heat and electricity. Most plants also have a Heat water storage. Finding the optimal production of both heat and electricity and the optimal use of the storage is a challenging mixed integer nonlinear optimization problem. The calculations may be divided into two sub-problems. The unit commitment problem is the problem to determine when a unit should be producing (on) or not (off). To solve the economic dispatch problem is to find the optimal production plan given which units are producing in each time interval. Together the solution of these two problems form the solution of the short-term production-planning problem. In this thesis a general approach for the mathematical modeling of a co-generation plant is presented. The model objective function is nonlinear, with nonlinear constraints. Internal plant temperatures, mass flows, storage losses, minimal up and down times and time dependent start-up costs are considered. The demand for heat, the forward temperature from the plant, the return temperature to the plant and the price of electricity are assumed to be known quantities. The net electric power produced is sold for the estimated current market price of electricity. The unit commitment problem is solved with an algorithm based on Lagrangian relaxation. The dual search direction is computed by the sub gradient method and the step length by the Polyak rule II. A heuristic method for the generation of primal feasible solutions is developed. The economic dispatch problem is solved using a combination of dynamic programming and general-purpose solvers. Algorithms to find starting values for the problem are developed. The model and the algorithms are implemented in MATLAB, illustrated with numerical examples and analyzed with numerical tests

  16. Neural circuit mechanisms of short-term memory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goldman, Mark

    Memory over time scales of seconds to tens of seconds is thought to be maintained by neural activity that is triggered by a memorized stimulus and persists long after the stimulus is turned off. This presents a challenge to current models of memory-storing mechanisms, because the typical time scales associated with cellular and synaptic dynamics are two orders of magnitude smaller than this. While such long time scales can easily be achieved by bistable processes that toggle like a flip-flop between a baseline and elevated-activity state, many neuronal systems have been observed experimentally to be capable of maintaining a continuum of stable states. For example, in neural integrator networks involved in the accumulation of evidence for decision making and in motor control, individual neurons have been recorded whose activity reflects the mathematical integral of their inputs; in the absence of input, these neurons sustain activity at a level proportional to the running total of their inputs. This represents an analog form of memory whose dynamics can be conceptualized through an energy landscape with a continuum of lowest-energy states. Such continuous attractor landscapes are structurally non-robust, in seeming violation of the relative robustness of biological memory systems. In this talk, I will present and compare different biologically motivated circuit motifs for the accumulation and storage of signals in short-term memory. Challenges to generating robust memory maintenance will be highlighted and potential mechanisms for ameliorating the sensitivity of memory networks to perturbations will be discussed. Funding for this work was provided by NIH R01 MH065034, NSF IIS-1208218, Simons Foundation 324260, and a UC Davis Ophthalmology Research to Prevent Blindness Grant.

  17. Short-term rainfall: its scaling properties over Portugal

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Lima, M. Isabel P.

    2010-05-01

    The characterization of rainfall at a variety of space- and time-scales demands usually that data from different origins and resolution are explored. Different tools and methodologies can be used for this purpose. In regions where the spatial variation of rain is marked, the study of the scaling structure of rainfall can lead to a better understanding of the type of events affecting that specific area, which is essential for many engineering applications. The relevant factors affecting rain variability, in time and space, can lead to contrasting statistics which should be carefully taken into account in design procedures and decision making processes. One such region is Mainland Portugal; the territory is located in the transitional region between the sub-tropical anticyclone and the subpolar depression zones and is characterized by strong north-south and east-west rainfall gradients. The spatial distribution and seasonal variability of rain are particularly influenced by the characteristics of the global circulation. One specific feature is the Atlantic origin of many synoptic disturbances in the context of the regional geography (e.g. latitude, orography, oceanic and continental influences). Thus, aiming at investigating the statistical signature of rain events of different origins, resulting from the large number of mechanisms and factors affecting the rainfall climate over Portugal, scale-invariant analyses of the temporal structure of rain from several locations in mainland Portugal were conducted. The study used short-term rainfall time series. Relevant scaling ranges were identified and characterized that help clarifying the small-scale behaviour and statistics of this process.

  18. Short-term load forecasting of power system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Xiaobin

    2017-05-01

    In order to ensure the scientific nature of optimization about power system, it is necessary to improve the load forecasting accuracy. Power system load forecasting is based on accurate statistical data and survey data, starting from the history and current situation of electricity consumption, with a scientific method to predict the future development trend of power load and change the law of science. Short-term load forecasting is the basis of power system operation and analysis, which is of great significance to unit combination, economic dispatch and safety check. Therefore, the load forecasting of the power system is explained in detail in this paper. First, we use the data from 2012 to 2014 to establish the partial least squares model to regression analysis the relationship between daily maximum load, daily minimum load, daily average load and each meteorological factor, and select the highest peak by observing the regression coefficient histogram Day maximum temperature, daily minimum temperature and daily average temperature as the meteorological factors to improve the accuracy of load forecasting indicators. Secondly, in the case of uncertain climate impact, we use the time series model to predict the load data for 2015, respectively, the 2009-2014 load data were sorted out, through the previous six years of the data to forecast the data for this time in 2015. The criterion for the accuracy of the prediction is the average of the standard deviations for the prediction results and average load for the previous six years. Finally, considering the climate effect, we use the BP neural network model to predict the data in 2015, and optimize the forecast results on the basis of the time series model.

  19. Short-Term Wind Power Forecasts using Doppler Lidar

    Science.gov (United States)

    Magerman, Beth

    With a ground-based Doppler lidar on the upwind side of a wind farm in the Tehachapi Pass of California, radial wind velocity measurements were collected for repeating sector sweeps, scanning up to 10 kilometers away. This region consisted of complex terrain, with the scans made between mountains. The dataset was utilized for techniques being studied for short-term forecasting of wind power by correlating changes in energy content and of turbulence intensity by tracking spatial variance, in the wind ahead of a wind farm. A ramp event was also captured and its propagation was tracked. Orthogonal horizontal wind vectors were retrieved from the radial velocity using a sector Velocity Azimuth Display method. Streamlines were plotted to determine the potential sites for a correlation of upstream wind speed with wind speed at downstream locations near the wind farm. A "virtual wind turbine" was "placed" in locations along the streamline by using the time-series velocity data at the location as the input to a modeled wind turbine, to determine the extractable energy content at that location. The relationship between this time-dependent energy content upstream and near the wind farm was studied. By correlating the energy content with each upstream location based on a time shift estimated according to advection at the mean wind speed, several fits were evaluated. A prediction of the downstream energy content was produced by shifting the power output in time and applying the best-fit function. This method made predictions of the power near the wind farm several minutes in advance. Predictions were also made up to an hour in advance for a large ramp event. The Magnitude Absolute Error and Standard Deviation are presented for the predictions based on each selected upstream location.

  20. Models for short term malaria prediction in Sri Lanka

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Galappaththy Gawrie NL

    2008-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Malaria in Sri Lanka is unstable and fluctuates in intensity both spatially and temporally. Although the case counts are dwindling at present, given the past history of resurgence of outbreaks despite effective control measures, the control programmes have to stay prepared. The availability of long time series of monitored/diagnosed malaria cases allows for the study of forecasting models, with an aim to developing a forecasting system which could assist in the efficient allocation of resources for malaria control. Methods Exponentially weighted moving average models, autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA models with seasonal components, and seasonal multiplicative autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA models were compared on monthly time series of district malaria cases for their ability to predict the number of malaria cases one to four months ahead. The addition of covariates such as the number of malaria cases in neighbouring districts or rainfall were assessed for their ability to improve prediction of selected (seasonal ARIMA models. Results The best model for forecasting and the forecasting error varied strongly among the districts. The addition of rainfall as a covariate improved prediction of selected (seasonal ARIMA models modestly in some districts but worsened prediction in other districts. Improvement by adding rainfall was more frequent at larger forecasting horizons. Conclusion Heterogeneity of patterns of malaria in Sri Lanka requires regionally specific prediction models. Prediction error was large at a minimum of 22% (for one of the districts for one month ahead predictions. The modest improvement made in short term prediction by adding rainfall as a covariate to these prediction models may not be sufficient to merit investing in a forecasting system for which rainfall data are routinely processed.

  1. Nutritional status in short-term overtraining boxers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexandrova Albena

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available The diet is essential to the recovery process in athletes, especially those undergoing intensive training. The continuous imbalance between loading and recovery leads to development of overtraining syndrome. The purpose of this study was to establish the changes in the nutritional status of short-term overtrained athletes. Twelve boxers from the team of National Spoils Academy Sofia, Bulgaria during their preparation for the National Championship 2016 were studied. The measurements were conducted three times.in the beginning of preparation (T1, 22 days later (2 and 10 days after (32 days after first measurement, in the beginning of the recovery period, one week prior the competition (T3.The measurements included basic anthropometric data, overtraining questionnaire RESTO-Sport and nutrition questionnaire, plasma concentration of testosterone and cortisol.On the data of dietary survey the percent proportion and the amount of daily consumed proteins, fats and carbohydrates were defined and the energy intake of the tested athletes was calculated. According to the RESTO-Sport a significant decrease in the ratio stress/recovery was observed in the period with the heaviest training load T2, and an increase was estimated in the pre­competition recovery period T3. It was found a typical for the overtraining syndrome decrease in the concentration of testosterone and the ratio of testosterone/cortisol in T3. In some respondents a reduction in carbohydrates and proteins intake was observed in T2 and especially in T3, which correlates with the hormonal changes. In this work the diet changes was discussed as a possible consequence and/or a cause of the overtraining syndrome.

  2. Short-term respiratory outcomes in late preterm infants

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-01-01

    Objective To evaluate short-term respiratory outcomes in late preterm infants (LPI) compared with those of term infants (TI). Methods A retrospective study conducted in a single third level Italian centre (2005–2009) to analyse the incidence and risk factors of composite respiratory morbidity (CRM), the need for adjunctive therapies (surfactant therapy, inhaled nitric oxide, pleural drainage), the highest level of respiratory support (mechanical ventilation – MV, nasal continuous positive airway pressure – N-CPAP, nasal oxygen) and the duration of pressure support (hours in N-CPAP and/or MV). Results During the study period 14,515 infants were delivered. There were 856 (5.9%) LPI and 12,948 (89.2%) TI. CRM affected 105 LPI (12.4%), and 121 TI (0.9%), with an overall rate of 1.6%. Eighty-four LPI (9.8%) and 73 TI (0.56%) received respiratory support, of which 13 LPI (1.5%) and 16 TI (0.12%) were ventilated. The adjusted OR for developing CRM significantly increased from 3.3 (95% CI 2.0-5.5) at 37 weeks to 40.8 (95% CI 19.7-84.9%) at 34 weeks. The adjusted OR for the need of MV significantly increased from 3.4 (95% CI 1.2-10) at 37 weeks to 34.4 (95% CI 6.7-180.6%) at 34 weeks. Median duration of pressure support was significantly higher at 37 weeks (66.6 h vs 40.5 h). Twin pregnancies were related to a higher risk of CRM (OR 4.3, 95% CI 2.6-7.3), but not independent of gestational age (GA). Cesarean section (CS) was associated with higher risk of CRM independently of GA, but the OR was lower in CS with labour (2.2, 95% CI 1.4-3.4 vs 3.0, 95% CI 2.1-4.2). Conclusions In this single third level care study late preterm births, pulmonary diseases and supportive respiratory interventions were lower than previously documented. LPI are at a higher risk of developing pulmonary disease than TI. Infants born from elective cesarean sections, late preterm twins in particular and 37 weekers too might benefit from preventive intervention. PMID:24893787

  3. Short-term outcome of patients with preeclampsia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Koual M

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available Meriem Koual, Hind Abbou, Marie Carbonnel, Olivier Picone, Jean-Marc Ayoubi Department of Gynecology and Obstetrics, Hôpital Foch, Suresnes, France Introduction: Preeclampsia constitutes a cause of increased mortality in mothers and fetuses. Screening for promoting factors is essential for adequate prevention in the event of any subsequent pregnancy, and for the adequate follow-up of concerned patients. The aim of the present study was to evaluate the short-term outcome of patients with preeclampsia and to identify possible new factors predisposing them to the disease. Methods: One hundred fifty-five patients having experienced preeclampsia between 2005 and 2010 from the Gynecology and Obstetrics Department of the Foch Hospital (Suresnes, France were included in the study. All patients had undergone close clinical and standard biological follow-up immediately postpartum and then 3 months later with a reference practitioner. In severe cases, further investigation was carried out by full etiological examination with an assessment of both autoimmune and thrombophilic status. Results: Obesity and gestational diabetes were observed to be major risk factors for preeclampsia, which were found in 46% and 15% of the cases, respectively. The etiological assessment showed abnormalities in 11% of the patients. Impaired thrombophilia was found in 3% of the patients, impaired autoimmune status in 4%, a combination of both abnormalities in only 1% of the patients, and detection of renal abnormalities in 3% of the patients were observed. In the immediate postpartum period, 66% of patients had maintained elevated blood pressure levels, and 66% had proteinuria > 0.3 g/24 hours. At the 3-month postpartum assessment, persisting arterial hypertension was found in 16% of the patients, requiring continuation of antihypertensive therapy, and 22% of the patients had proteinuria over the accepted threshold (0.15 g/24 hours. Conclusion: Patients with preeclampsia have

  4. Short-term respiratory outcomes in late preterm infants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Natile, Miria; Ventura, Maria Luisa; Colombo, Marco; Bernasconi, Davide; Locatelli, Anna; Plevani, Cristina; Valsecchi, Maria Grazia; Tagliabue, Paolo

    2014-06-03

    To evaluate short-term respiratory outcomes in late preterm infants (LPI) compared with those of term infants (TI). A retrospective study conducted in a single third level Italian centre (2005-2009) to analyse the incidence and risk factors of composite respiratory morbidity (CRM), the need for adjunctive therapies (surfactant therapy, inhaled nitric oxide, pleural drainage), the highest level of respiratory support (mechanical ventilation - MV, nasal continuous positive airway pressure--N-CPAP, nasal oxygen) and the duration of pressure support (hours in N-CPAP and/or MV). During the study period 14,515 infants were delivered. There were 856 (5.9%) LPI and 12,948 (89.2%) TI. CRM affected 105 LPI (12.4%), and 121 TI (0.9%), with an overall rate of 1.6%. Eighty-four LPI (9.8%) and 73 TI (0.56%) received respiratory support, of which 13 LPI (1.5%) and 16 TI (0.12%) were ventilated. The adjusted OR for developing CRM significantly increased from 3.3 (95% CI 2.0-5.5) at 37 weeks to 40.8 (95% CI 19.7-84.9%) at 34 weeks. The adjusted OR for the need of MV significantly increased from 3.4 (95% CI 1.2-10) at 37 weeks to 34.4 (95% CI 6.7-180.6%) at 34 weeks. Median duration of pressure support was significantly higher at 37 weeks (66.6 h vs 40.5 h). Twin pregnancies were related to a higher risk of CRM (OR 4.3, 95% CI 2.6-7.3), but not independent of gestational age (GA). Cesarean section (CS) was associated with higher risk of CRM independently of GA, but the OR was lower in CS with labour (2.2, 95% CI 1.4-3.4 vs 3.0, 95% CI 2.1-4.2). In this single third level care study late preterm births, pulmonary diseases and supportive respiratory interventions were lower than previously documented. LPI are at a higher risk of developing pulmonary disease than TI. Infants born from elective cesarean sections, late preterm twins in particular and 37 weekers too might benefit from preventive intervention.

  5. Vitamin D endocrine system after short-term space flight

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rhoten, William B. (Principal Investigator); Sergeev, Igor N. (Principal Investigator)

    1996-01-01

    The exposure of the body to microgravity during space flight causes a series of well-documented changes in Ca(2+) metabolism, yet the cellular/molecular mechanisms leading to these changes are poorly understood. There is some evidence for microgravity-induced alterations in the vitamin D endocrine system, which is known to be primarily involved in the regulation of Ca(2+) metabolism. Vitamin D-dependent Ca(2+) binding proteins, or calbindins, are believed to have a significant role in maintaining cellular Ca(2+) homeostasis. We used immunocytochemical, biochemical and molecular approaches to analyze the expression of calbindin-D(sub 28k) and calbindin-D(sub 9k) in kidneys and intestines of rats flown for 9 days aboard the Spacelab 3 mission. The effects of microgravity on calbindins in rats in space vs. 'grounded' animals (synchronous Animal Enclosure Module controls and tail suspension controls) were compared. Exposure to microgravity resulted in a significant decrease in calbindin-D(sub 28k) content in kidneys and calbindin-D(sub 9k) in the intestine of flight and suspended animals, as measured by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). Immunocytochemistry (ICC) in combination with quantitative computer image analysis was used to measure in situ the expression of calbindins in kidneys and intestine, and insulin in pancreas. There was a large decrease in the distal tubular cell-associated calbindin-D(sub 28k) and absorptive cell-associated calbindin-D(sub 9k) immunoreactivity in the space and suspension kidneys and intestine, as compared with matched ground controls. No consistent differences in pancreatic insulin immunoreactivity between space, suspension and ground controls was observed. There were significant correlations between results by quantitative ICC and ELISA. Western blot analysis showed no consistent changes in the low levels of intestinal and renal vitamin D receptors. These findings suggest that a decreased expression of calbindins after a short-term

  6. Artificial Neural Network for Short-Term Load Forecasting in Distribution Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luis Hernández

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available The new paradigms and latest developments in the Electrical Grid are based on the introduction of distributed intelligence at several stages of its physical layer, giving birth to concepts such as Smart Grids, Virtual Power Plants, microgrids, Smart Buildings and Smart Environments. Distributed Generation (DG is a philosophy in which energy is no longer produced exclusively in huge centralized plants, but also in smaller premises which take advantage of local conditions in order to minimize transmission losses and optimize production and consumption. This represents a new opportunity for renewable energy, because small elements such as solar panels and wind turbines are expected to be scattered along the grid, feeding local installations or selling energy to the grid depending on their local generation/consumption conditions. The introduction of these highly dynamic elements will lead to a substantial change in the curves of demanded energy. The aim of this paper is to apply Short-Term Load Forecasting (STLF in microgrid environments with curves and similar behaviours, using two different data sets: the first one packing electricity consumption information during four years and six months in a microgrid along with calendar data, while the second one will be just four months of the previous parameters along with the solar radiation from the site. For the first set of data different STLF models will be discussed, studying the effect of each variable, in order to identify the best one. That model will be employed with the second set of data, in order to make a comparison with a new model that takes into account the solar radiation, since the photovoltaic installations of the microgrid will cause the power demand to fluctuate depending on the solar radiation.

  7. Short-term international migration trends in England and Wales from 2004 to 2009.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whitworth, Simon; Loukas, Konstantinos; McGregor, Ian

    2011-01-01

    Short-term migration estimates for England and Wales are the latest addition to the Office for National Statistics (ONS) migration statistics. This article discusses definitions of short-term migration and the methodology that is used to produce the estimates. Some of the estimates and the changes in the estimates over time are then discussed. The article includes previously unpublished short-term migration statistics and therefore helps to give a more complete picture of the size and characteristics of short-term international migration for England and Wales than has previously been possible. ONS have identified a clear user requirement for short-term migration estimates at local authority (LA) level. Consequently, attention is also paid to the progress that has been made and future work that is planned to distribute England and Wales short-term migration estimates to LA level.

  8. Big Five Traits Related to Short-Term Mating: From Personality to Promiscuity across 46 Nations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David P. Schmitt

    2008-04-01

    Full Text Available As part of the International Sexuality Description Project, 13,243 participants from 46 nations responded to self-report measures of personality and mating behavior. Several traits showed consistent links with short-term mating. Extraversion positively correlated with interest in short-term mating, unrestricted sociosexuality, having engaged in short-term mate poaching attempts, having succumbed to short-term poaching attempts of others, and lacking relationship exclusivity. Low levels of agreeableness and conscientiousness also related to short-term mating, especially with extra-pair mating. Neuroticism and openness were associated with short-term mating as well, but these links were less consistent across sex and nation. Nation-level links between personality and sexuality replicated within-region findings, such as the strong association between national extraversion and national sociosexuality. Discussion focuses on the origins of personality-sexuality links and their implications across nations.

  9. What are the differences between long-term, short-term, and working memory?

    OpenAIRE

    Cowan, Nelson

    2008-01-01

    In the recent literature there has been considerable confusion about the three types of memory: long-term, short-term, and working memory. This chapter strives to reduce that confusion and makes up-to-date assessments of these types of memory. Long- and short-term memory could differ in two fundamental ways, with only short-term memory demonstrating (1) temporal decay and (2) chunk capacity limits. Both properties of short-term memory are still controversial but the current literature is rath...

  10. DYNAMICS OF THE ANXIETY DISORDERS IN THE COURSE OF SHORT-TERM PSYCHOTHERAPY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T.N. Hmylova

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available The tendency of psychotherapy modern concepts referring to the short-term forms having been taken into account, we carried out the research aimed at the study of short-term form personality-oriented psychotherapy effect on the anxiety disorder dynamics. 103 patients with neurotic disorders were examined in the neurosis and psychotherapy department of the Bekhterev Psychoneurological Research Institute. The findings revealed the situational and personal anxiety level to be objectively decreased in the short-term group psychotherapy course. The short-term group psychotherapy was proved to bean effective method in anxiety disorders treatment considering indications and limitations.

  11. Short-Term Forecasting of Radiation Belt and Ring Current

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fok, Mei-Ching

    2007-01-01

    A computer program implements a mathematical model of the radiation-belt and ring-current plasmas resulting from interactions between the solar wind and the Earth s magnetic field, for the purpose of predicting fluxes of energetic electrons (10 keV to 5 MeV) and protons (10 keV to 1 MeV), which are hazardous to humans and spacecraft. Given solar-wind and interplanetary-magnetic-field data as inputs, the program solves the convection-diffusion equations of plasma distribution functions in the range of 2 to 10 Earth radii. Phenomena represented in the model include particle drifts resulting from the gradient and curvature of the magnetic field; electric fields associated with the rotation of the Earth, convection, and temporal variation of the magnetic field; and losses along particle-drift paths. The model can readily accommodate new magnetic- and electric-field submodels and new information regarding physical processes that drive the radiation-belt and ring-current plasmas. Despite the complexity of the model, the program can be run in real time on ordinary computers. At present, the program can calculate present electron and proton fluxes; after further development, it should be able to predict the fluxes 24 hours in advance

  12. Dispersant trial at ANO-2: Results from a short-term trial prior to SG replacement

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fruzzetti, K.; Frattini, P. [Electric Power Research Inst., Palo Alto, CA (United States); Robbins, P. [Entergy Operations, Arkansas Nuclear One, Russellville, AR (United States); Miller, A. [Pedro Point Technology, Inc., Pacifica, CA (United States); Varrin, R.; Kreider, M. [Dominion Engineering Inc., McLean, VA (United States)

    2002-07-01

    Corrosion products in the secondary side of pressurized water reactor (PWR) steam generators (SGs) primarily deposit on the SG tubes. These deposits can inhibit heat transfer, lead to thermal-hydraulic instabilities through blockage of tube supports, and create occluded regions where corrosive species can concentrate along tubes and in tube-to-tube support plate crevices. The performance of the SGs is compromised not only by formation of an insulating scale, but by the removal of tubes from service due to corrosion. A potential strategy for minimizing deposition of corrosion products on SG internal surfaces is to use an online dispersant to help prevent the corrosion products from adhering to the steam generator surfaces. By inhibiting the deposition of the corrosion products, the dispersant can facilitate more effective removal from the SGs via blowdown. This type of strategy has been employed at fossil boilers for many decades. However, due to the use of inorganic (sulfur and other impurities) polymerization initiators, polymeric dispersants had not been utilized in the nuclear industry. Only recently has a poly-acrylic acid dispersant, developed by BetzDearborn (PAA), been available that meets the criteria for nuclear application. This paper summarizes the results of the short-term PAA dispersant trial in Winter/Spring 2000, lasting approximately 3 months, performed at Arkansas nuclear one unit 2 (ANO-2)-including the chronology of the trial, the increase in blowdown iron removal efficiency with use of the dispersant, and observed effects on SG performance. (authors)

  13. Improving protein disorder prediction by deep bidirectional long short-term memory recurrent neural networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanson, Jack; Yang, Yuedong; Paliwal, Kuldip; Zhou, Yaoqi

    2017-03-01

    Capturing long-range interactions between structural but not sequence neighbors of proteins is a long-standing challenging problem in bioinformatics. Recently, long short-term memory (LSTM) networks have significantly improved the accuracy of speech and image classification problems by remembering useful past information in long sequential events. Here, we have implemented deep bidirectional LSTM recurrent neural networks in the problem of protein intrinsic disorder prediction. The new method, named SPOT-Disorder, has steadily improved over a similar method using a traditional, window-based neural network (SPINE-D) in all datasets tested without separate training on short and long disordered regions. Independent tests on four other datasets including the datasets from critical assessment of structure prediction (CASP) techniques and >10 000 annotated proteins from MobiDB, confirmed SPOT-Disorder as one of the best methods in disorder prediction. Moreover, initial studies indicate that the method is more accurate in predicting functional sites in disordered regions. These results highlight the usefulness combining LSTM with deep bidirectional recurrent neural networks in capturing non-local, long-range interactions for bioinformatics applications. SPOT-disorder is available as a web server and as a standalone program at: http://sparks-lab.org/server/SPOT-disorder/index.php . j.hanson@griffith.edu.au or yuedong.yang@griffith.edu.au or yaoqi.zhou@griffith.edu.au. Supplementary data is available at Bioinformatics online.

  14. Assessing Short-Term Voltage Stability of Electric Power Systems by a Hierarchical Intelligent System.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Yan; Zhang, Rui; Zhao, Junhua; Dong, Zhao Yang; Wang, Dianhui; Yang, Hongming; Wong, Kit Po

    2016-08-01

    In the smart grid paradigm, growing integration of large-scale intermittent renewable energies has introduced significant uncertainties to the operations of an electric power system. This makes real-time dynamic security assessment (DSA) a necessity to enable enhanced situational-awareness against the risk of blackouts. Conventional DSA methods are mainly based on the time-domain simulation, which are insufficiently fast and knowledge-poor. In recent years, the intelligent system (IS) strategy has been identified as a promising approach to facilitate real-time DSA. While previous works mainly concentrate on the rotor angle stability, this paper focuses on another yet increasingly important dynamic insecurity phenomenon-the short-term voltage instability, which involves fast and complex load dynamics. The problem is modeled as a classification subproblem for transient voltage collapse and a prediction subproblem for unacceptable dynamic voltage deviation. A hierarchical IS is developed to address the two subproblems sequentially. The IS is based on ensemble learning of random-weights neural networks and is implemented in an offline training, a real-time application, and an online updating pattern. The simulation results on the New England 39-bus system verify its superiority in both learning speed and accuracy over some state-of-the-art learning algorithms.

  15. An Evaluation Methodology for Longitudinal Studies of Short-Term Cancer Research Training Programs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Padilla, Luz A; Venkatesh, Raam; Daniel, Casey L; Desmond, Renee A; Brooks, C Michael; Waterbor, John W

    2016-03-01

    The need to familiarize medical students and graduate health professional students with research training opportunities that cultivate the appeal of research careers is vital to the future of research. Comprehensive evaluation of a cancer research training program can be achieved through longitudinal tracking of program alumni to assess the program's impact on each participant's career path and professional achievements. With advances in technology and smarter means of communication, effective ways to track alumni have changed. In order to collect data on the career outcomes and achievements of nearly 500 short-term cancer research training program alumni from 1999-2013, we sought to contact each alumnus to request completion of a survey instrument online, or by means of a telephone interview. The effectiveness of each contact method that we used was quantified according to ease of use and time required. The most reliable source of contact information for tracking alumni from the early years of the program was previous tracking results, and for alumni from the later years, the most important source of contact information was university alumni records that provided email addresses and telephone numbers. Personal contacts with former preceptors were sometimes helpful, as were generic search engines and people search engines. Social networking was of little value for most searches. Using information from two or more sources in combination was most effective in tracking alumni. These results provide insights and tools for other research training programs that wish to track their alumni for long-term program evaluation.

  16. Hybrid artificial neural network system for short-term load forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ilić Slobodan A.

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a novel hybrid method for Short-Term Load Forecasting (STLF. The system comprises of two Artificial Neural Networks (ANN, assembled in a hierarchical order. The first ANN is a Multilayer Perceptron (MLP which functions as integrated load predictor (ILP for the forecasting day. The output of the ILP is then fed to another, more complex MLP, which acts as an hourly load predictor (HLP for a forecasting day. By using a separate ANN that predicts the integral of the load (ILP, additional information is presented to the actual forecasting ANN (HLP, while keeping its input space relatively small. This property enables online training and adaptation, as new data become available, because of the short training time. Different sizes of training sets have been tested, and the optimum of 30 day sliding time-window has been determined. The system has been verified on recorded data from Serbian electrical utility company. The results demonstrate better efficiency of the proposed method in comparison to non-hybrid methods because it produces better forecasts and yields smaller mean average percentage error (MAPE.

  17. Short-term Internet search using makes people rely on search engines when facing unknown issues.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Yifan; Wu, Lingdan; Luo, Liang; Zhang, Yifen; Dong, Guangheng

    2017-01-01

    The Internet search engines, which have powerful search/sort functions and ease of use features, have become an indispensable tool for many individuals. The current study is to test whether the short-term Internet search training can make people more dependent on it. Thirty-one subjects out of forty subjects completed the search training study which included a pre-test, a six-day's training of Internet search, and a post-test. During the pre- and post- tests, subjects were asked to search online the answers to 40 unusual questions, remember the answers and recall them in the scanner. Un-learned questions were randomly presented at the recalling stage in order to elicited search impulse. Comparing to the pre-test, subjects in the post-test reported higher impulse to use search engines to answer un-learned questions. Consistently, subjects showed higher brain activations in dorsolateral prefrontal cortex and anterior cingulate cortex in the post-test than in the pre-test. In addition, there were significant positive correlations self-reported search impulse and brain responses in the frontal areas. The results suggest that a simple six-day's Internet search training can make people dependent on the search tools when facing unknown issues. People are easily dependent on the Internet search engines.

  18. Development of short-term forecast quality for new offshore wind farms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kurt, M.; Lange, B.

    2014-06-01

    As the rapid wind power build-out continues, a large number of new wind farms will come online but forecasters and forecasting algorithms have little experience with them. This is a problem for statistical short term forecasts, which must be trained on a long record of historical power production - exactly what is missing for a new farm. Focus of the study was to analyse development of the offshore wind power forecast (WPF) quality from beginning of operation up to one year of operational experience. This paper represents a case study using data of the first German offshore wind farm "alpha ventus" and first German commercial offshore wind farm "Baltic1". The work was carried out with measured data from meteorological measurement mast FINO1, measured power from wind farms and numerical weather prediction (NWP) from the German Weather Service (DWD). This study facilitates to decide the length of needed time series and selection of forecast method to get a reliable WPF on a weekly time axis. Weekly development of WPF quality for day-ahead WPF via different models is presented. The models are physical model; physical model extended with a statistical correction (MOS) and artificial neural network (ANN) as a pure statistical model. Selforganizing map (SOM) is investigated for a better understanding of uncertainties of forecast error.

  19. Short-Term Forecasting of Urban Storm Water Runoff in Real-Time using Extrapolated Radar Rainfall Data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thorndahl, Søren Liedtke; Rasmussen, Michael R.

    2013-01-01

    Model based short-term forecasting of urban storm water runoff can be applied in realtime control of drainage systems in order to optimize system capacity during rain and minimize combined sewer overflows, improve wastewater treatment or activate alarms if local flooding is impending. A novel...... online system, which forecasts flows and water levels in real-time with inputs from extrapolated radar rainfall data, has been developed. The fully distributed urban drainage model includes auto-calibration using online in-sewer measurements which is seen to improve forecast skills significantly....... The radar rainfall extrapolation (nowcast) limits the lead time of the system to two hours. In this paper, the model set-up is tested on a small urban catchment for a period of 1.5 years. The 50 largest events are presented....

  20. Fragile visual short-term memory is an object-based and location-specific store

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pinto, Y.; Sligte, I.G.; Shapiro, K.L.; Lamme, V.A.F.

    2013-01-01

    Fragile visual short-term memory (FM) is a recently discovered form of visual short-term memory. Evidence suggests that it provides rich and high-capacity storage, like iconic memory, yet it exists, without interference, almost as long as visual working memory. In the present study, we sought to

  1. How Emotional Pictures Influence Visuospatial Binding in Short-Term Memory in Ageing and Alzheimer's Disease?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borg, Celine; Leroy, Nicolas; Favre, Emilie; Laurent, Bernard; Thomas-Anterion, Catherine

    2011-01-01

    The present study examines the prediction that emotion can facilitate short-term memory. Nevertheless, emotion also recruits attention to process information, thereby disrupting short-term memory when tasks involve high attentional resources. In this way, we aimed to determine whether there is a differential influence of emotional information on…

  2. Short-term and area-wide evaluation of safety measures.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Oppe, S. & Wegman, F.C.M.

    1982-01-01

    A background paper for the seminar on short-term and area-wide evaluation of safety measures is presented. The seminar is restricted to safety measures, thus only countermeasures that are intended to reduce accidents are regarded. The measures should be furthermore for the short-term and area-wide.

  3. Poor Phonemic Discrimination Does Not Underlie Poor Verbal Short-Term Memory in Down Syndrome

    Science.gov (United States)

    Purser, Harry R. M.; Jarrold, Christopher

    2013-01-01

    Individuals with Down syndrome tend to have a marked impairment of verbal short-term memory. The chief aim of this study was to investigate whether phonemic discrimination contributes to this deficit. The secondary aim was to investigate whether phonological representations are degraded in verbal short-term memory in people with Down syndrome…

  4. Focusing on Short-Term Achievement Gains Fails to Produce Long-Term Gains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grissmer, David W.; Ober, David R.; Beekman, John A.

    2014-01-01

    The short-term emphasis engendered by No Child Left Behind (NCLB) has focused research predominantly on unraveling the complexities and uncertainties in assessing short-term results, rather than developing methods and assessing results over the longer term. In this paper we focus on estimating long-term gains and address questions important to…

  5. 34 CFR 390.1 - What is the Rehabilitation Short-Term Training program?

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... designed for the support of special seminars, institutes, workshops, and other short-term courses in... 34 Education 2 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false What is the Rehabilitation Short-Term Training program...) OFFICE OF SPECIAL EDUCATION AND REHABILITATIVE SERVICES, DEPARTMENT OF EDUCATION REHABILITATION...

  6. Short-Term Faculty-Led Study Abroad Programs Enhance Cultural Exchange and Self-Awareness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaia, A. Celeste

    2015-01-01

    Though many experts argue that semester or year abroad study is the optimal path, short-term programs meet the needs of students who would not otherwise study abroad and can be effective at increasing intercultural competency. The present study describes one type of short-term program--the embedded faculty-led model--and provides evidence that…

  7. Poor Phonemic Discrimination Does Not Underlie Poor Verbal Short-Term Memory in Down Syndrome

    Science.gov (United States)

    Purser, Harry R. M.; Jarrold, Christopher

    2013-01-01

    Individuals with Down syndrome tend to have a marked impairment of verbal short-term memory. The chief aim of this study was to investigate whether phonemic discrimination contributes to this deficit. The secondary aim was to investigate whether phonological representations are degraded in verbal short-term memory in people with Down syndrome…

  8. A Short-Term Study Abroad Program for School Counseling Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cunningham, Teddi; Caldwell, Charmaine; Geltner, Jill

    2011-01-01

    Well planned, short-term study abroad programs can benefit school counseling students through exposure to new and different cultural experiences. Students gain knowledge and skills that will help them serve the diverse cultural groups found in public school settings. The objective of the short-term study abroad program described in this article…

  9. The Role of Short Term Synaptic Plasticity in Temporal Coding of Neuronal Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chandrasekaran, Lakshmi

    2008-01-01

    Short term synaptic plasticity is a phenomenon which is commonly found in the central nervous system. It could contribute to functions of signal processing namely, temporal integration and coincidence detection by modulating the input synaptic strength. This dissertation has two parts. First, we study the effects of short term synaptic plasticity…

  10. How Emotional Pictures Influence Visuospatial Binding in Short-Term Memory in Ageing and Alzheimer's Disease?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borg, Celine; Leroy, Nicolas; Favre, Emilie; Laurent, Bernard; Thomas-Anterion, Catherine

    2011-01-01

    The present study examines the prediction that emotion can facilitate short-term memory. Nevertheless, emotion also recruits attention to process information, thereby disrupting short-term memory when tasks involve high attentional resources. In this way, we aimed to determine whether there is a differential influence of emotional information on…

  11. Phonological Short-Term and Working Memory in Bilinguals' Native and Second Language

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaushanskaya, Margarita; Yoo, Jeewon

    2013-01-01

    The goal of the current study was to examine bilinguals' phonological short-term and working memory performance in their native/first (L1) and second (L2) languages. Korean-English bilinguals were tested in both Korean (L1) and English (L2). Short-term memory (STM) was measured via a nonword repetition task, where participants repeated…

  12. Exploring Developmental Differences in Visual Short-Term Memory and Working Memory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ang, Su Yin; Lee, Kerry

    2010-01-01

    Although visuospatial short-term memory tasks have been found to engage more executive resources than do their phonological counterparts, it remains unclear whether this is due to intrinsic differences between the tasks or differences in participants' experience with them. The authors found 11-year-olds' performances on both visual short-term and…

  13. What are the differences between long-term, short-term, and working memory?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cowan, Nelson

    2008-01-01

    In the recent literature there has been considerable confusion about the three types of memory: long-term, short-term, and working memory. This chapter strives to reduce that confusion and makes up-to-date assessments of these types of memory. Long- and short-term memory could differ in two fundamental ways, with only short-term memory demonstrating (1) temporal decay and (2) chunk capacity limits. Both properties of short-term memory are still controversial but the current literature is rather encouraging regarding the existence of both decay and capacity limits. Working memory has been conceived and defined in three different, slightly discrepant ways: as short-term memory applied to cognitive tasks, as a multi-component system that holds and manipulates information in short-term memory, and as the use of attention to manage short-term memory. Regardless of the definition, there are some measures of memory in the short term that seem routine and do not correlate well with cognitive aptitudes and other measures (those usually identified with the term "working memory") that seem more attention demanding and do correlate well with these aptitudes. The evidence is evaluated and placed within a theoretical framework depicted in Fig. 1.

  14. Predicting Short-Term Subway Ridership and Prioritizing Its Influential Factors Using Gradient Boosting Decision Trees

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chuan Ding

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Understanding the relationship between short-term subway ridership and its influential factors is crucial to improving the accuracy of short-term subway ridership prediction. Although there has been a growing body of studies on short-term ridership prediction approaches, limited effort is made to investigate the short-term subway ridership prediction considering bus transfer activities and temporal features. To fill this gap, a relatively recent data mining approach called gradient boosting decision trees (GBDT is applied to short-term subway ridership prediction and used to capture the associations with the independent variables. Taking three subway stations in Beijing as the cases, the short-term subway ridership and alighting passengers from its adjacent bus stops are obtained based on transit smart card data. To optimize the model performance with different combinations of regularization parameters, a series of GBDT models are built with various learning rates and tree complexities by fitting a maximum of trees. The optimal model performance confirms that the gradient boosting approach can incorporate different types of predictors, fit complex nonlinear relationships, and automatically handle the multicollinearity effect with high accuracy. In contrast to other machine learning methods—or “black-box” procedures—the GBDT model can identify and rank the relative influences of bus transfer activities and temporal features on short-term subway ridership. These findings suggest that the GBDT model has considerable advantages in improving short-term subway ridership prediction in a multimodal public transportation system.

  15. The Role of Short Term Synaptic Plasticity in Temporal Coding of Neuronal Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chandrasekaran, Lakshmi

    2008-01-01

    Short term synaptic plasticity is a phenomenon which is commonly found in the central nervous system. It could contribute to functions of signal processing namely, temporal integration and coincidence detection by modulating the input synaptic strength. This dissertation has two parts. First, we study the effects of short term synaptic plasticity…

  16. Short term memory for single surface features and bindings in ageing: A replication study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Isella, Valeria; Molteni, Federica; Mapelli, Cristina; Ferrarese, Carlo

    2015-06-01

    In the present study we replicated a previous experiment investigating visuo-spatial short term memory binding in young and older healthy individuals, in the attempt to verify the pattern of impairment that can be observed in normal elderly for short term memory for single items vs short term memory for bindings. Assessing a larger sample size (25 young and 25 older subjects), using a more appropriate measure of accuracy for a change detection task (A'), and adding the evaluation of speed of performance, we confirmed that old normals show a decline in short term memory for bindings of shape and colour that is of comparable extent, and not major, to the decline in memory for single shapes and single colours. The absence of a specific deficit of short term memory for conjunctions of surface features seems to distinguish cognitive ageing from Alzheimer's Disease. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. Differential effects of ecstasy on short-term and working memory: a meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nulsen, Claire E; Fox, Allison M; Hammond, Geoffrey R

    2010-03-01

    Quantitative analysis of studies examining the effect of ecstasy on short-term and working memory in the verbal and visuo-spatial domain was undertaken. Thirty verbal short-term memory, 22 verbal working memory, 12 visuospatial short-term memory and 9 visuospatial working memory studies met inclusion criteria. Ecstasy users performed significantly worse in all memory domains, both in studies using drug-naïve controls and studies using polydrug controls. These results are consistent with previous meta-analytic findings that ecstasy use is associated with impaired short-term memory function. Lifetime ecstasy consumption predicted effect size in working memory but not in short-term memory. The current meta-analysis adds to the literature by showing that ecstasy use in humans is also associated with impaired working memory, and that this impairment is related to total lifetime ecstasy consumption. These findings highlight the long-term, cumulative behavioral consequences associated with ecstasy use in humans.

  18. Two Machine Learning Approaches for Short-Term Wind Speed Time-Series Prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ak, Ronay; Fink, Olga; Zio, Enrico

    2016-08-01

    The increasing liberalization of European electricity markets, the growing proportion of intermittent renewable energy being fed into the energy grids, and also new challenges in the patterns of energy consumption (such as electric mobility) require flexible and intelligent power grids capable of providing efficient, reliable, economical, and sustainable energy production and distribution. From the supplier side, particularly, the integration of renewable energy sources (e.g., wind and solar) into the grid imposes an engineering and economic challenge because of the limited ability to control and dispatch these energy sources due to their intermittent characteristics. Time-series prediction of wind speed for wind power production is a particularly important and challenging task, wherein prediction intervals (PIs) are preferable results of the prediction, rather than point estimates, because they provide information on the confidence in the prediction. In this paper, two different machine learning approaches to assess PIs of time-series predictions are considered and compared: 1) multilayer perceptron neural networks trained with a multiobjective genetic algorithm and 2) extreme learning machines combined with the nearest neighbors approach. The proposed approaches are applied for short-term wind speed prediction from a real data set of hourly wind speed measurements for the region of Regina in Saskatchewan, Canada. Both approaches demonstrate good prediction precision and provide complementary advantages with respect to different evaluation criteria.

  19. Short-term estimation of GNSS TEC using a neural network model in Brazil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferreira, Arthur Amaral; Borges, Renato Alves; Paparini, Claudia; Ciraolo, Luigi; Radicella, Sandro M.

    2017-10-01

    This work presents a novel Neural Network (NN) model to estimate Total Electron Content (TEC) from Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) measurements in three distinct sectors in Brazil. The purpose of this work is to start the investigations on the development of a regional model that can be used to determine the vertical TEC over Brazil, aiming future applications on a near real-time frame estimations and short-term forecasting. The NN is used to estimate the GNSS TEC values at void locations, where no dual-frequency GNSS receiver that may be used as a source of data to GNSS TEC estimation is available. This approach is particularly useful for GNSS single-frequency users that rely on corrections of ionospheric range errors by TEC models. GNSS data from the first GLONASS network for research and development (GLONASS R&D network) installed in Latin America, and from the Brazilian Network for Continuous Monitoring of the GNSS (RMBC) were used on TEC calibration. The input parameters of the NN model are based on features known to influence TEC values, such as geographic location of the GNSS receiver, magnetic activity, seasonal and diurnal variations, and solar activity. Data from two ten-days periods (from DoY 154 to 163 and from 282 to 291) are used to train the network. Three distinct analyses have been carried out in order to assess time-varying and spatial performance of the model. At the spatial performance analysis, for each region, a set of stations is chosen to provide training data to the NN, and after the training procedure, the NN is used to estimate vTEC behavior for the test station which data were not presented to the NN in training process. An analysis is done by comparing, for each testing station, the estimated NN vTEC delivered by the NN and reference calibrated vTEC. Also, as a second analysis, the network ability to forecast one day after the time interval (DoY 292) based on information of the second period of investigation is also assessed

  20. VizieR Online Data Catalog: HD 50138 short-term variability (Borges Fernandes+, 2012)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borges Fernandes, M.; Kraus, M.; Nickeler, D. H.; De Cat, P.; Lampens, P.; Pereira, C. B.; Oksala, M. E.

    2012-10-01

    A total of 72 files related to the optical spectra taken within 8 observing nights with HERMES spectrograph, covering the photospheric HeI 4026Å and SiII 4128Å and 4131Å lines, the circumstellar [OI] 6364Å line, and the lines formed in the upper layers of the stellar atmosphere or very close to the stellar surface: SiII 6347Å and 6371Å, HeI 6678Å, H10, H9 and Halpha lines. The data were reduced by automated data reduction pipeline and cosmic ray and heliocentric velocity corrected (but not telluric corrected). (2 data files).

  1. Online short-term heat load forecasting for single family houses

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bacher, Peder; Madsen, Henrik; Nielsen, Henrik Aalborg

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents a method for forecasting the load for heating in a single-family house. Both space and hot tap water heating are forecasted. The forecasting model is built using data from sixteen houses in Sønderborg, Denmark, combined with local climate measurements and weather forecasts....... The models are optimized to fit the level of optimal adaptivity and the thermal dynamical response of the building. Identification of a model, which is suitable for application to all the houses, is carried out. The results show that the forecasting errors mainly are related to: unpredictable high frequency...

  2. Short-term forecast of the carbon monoxide concentration over the Moscow megacity region by COSMO-ART

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kislov, Alexander; Revokatova, Anastasia; Surkova, Galina; Rivin, Gdaliy

    2016-04-01

    Introduction. Atmospheric pollution in the cities is constantly increasing. It makes air pollution forecast extremely important for modern meteorology. Short-range spatial detailed forecast of air pollutants distribution should be done as a part of weather forecast. A short-term forecast of city 'chemical weather' requires real daily data on pollutant emissions. For the operational daily forecast of pollutant concentrations, long-term emissions averages are usually used, which may differ significantly from real emissions on the particular day, especially in big cities. Methodology. The method of calculation of pollutant emissions is described for the short-term forecast. An on-line coupled chemical transport model, COSMO-ART (https://www.imk-tro.kit.edu/english/3509.php), was applied for the Moscow megasity region, Russia. Because it is impossible to have real daily emissions values, the method of emission estimation on the basis of measurements of the concentrations of air pollutants is proposed. The method is based on the assumption that the pollutant concentrations reflect the intensity of emissions sources. The proposed method allows the hourly measurements of air pollutant concentrations to be transformed into emissions values as fast as the measurements can be done. Results. This method is described and its application is shown for carbon monoxide (one of the most dangerous pollutant). Around 90% of CO in Moscow is emitted by traffic. Conclusions. Verification of the COSMO-ART results demonstrates that the calculated emissions gave better results compared with the results from mean emission values (TNO emissions dataset) that were used previously. This approach provides the possibility of running an operational short-term pollutant concentration forecast with more detailed spatial structure.

  3. Attention Problems, Phonological Short-Term Memory, and Visuospatial Short-Term Memory: Differential Effects on Near- and Long-Term Scholastic Achievement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarver, Dustin E.; Rapport, Mark D.; Kofler, Michael J.; Scanlan, Sean W.; Raiker, Joseph S.; Altro, Thomas A.; Bolden, Jennifer

    2012-01-01

    The current study examined individual differences in children's phonological and visuospatial short-term memory as potential mediators of the relationship among attention problems and near- and long-term scholastic achievement. Nested structural equation models revealed that teacher-reported attention problems were associated negatively with…

  4. Attention Problems, Phonological Short-Term Memory, and Visuospatial Short-Term Memory: Differential Effects on Near- and Long-Term Scholastic Achievement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarver, Dustin E.; Rapport, Mark D.; Kofler, Michael J.; Scanlan, Sean W.; Raiker, Joseph S.; Altro, Thomas A.; Bolden, Jennifer

    2012-01-01

    The current study examined individual differences in children's phonological and visuospatial short-term memory as potential mediators of the relationship among attention problems and near- and long-term scholastic achievement. Nested structural equation models revealed that teacher-reported attention problems were associated negatively with…

  5. Genetic deletion of melanin-concentrating hormone neurons impairs hippocampal short-term synaptic plasticity and hippocampal-dependent forms of short-term memory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Le Barillier, Léa; Léger, Lucienne; Luppi, Pierre-Hervé; Fort, Patrice; Malleret, Gaël; Salin, Paul-Antoine

    2015-11-01

    The cognitive role of melanin-concentrating hormone (MCH) neurons, a neuronal population located in the mammalian postero-lateral hypothalamus sending projections to all cortical areas, remains poorly understood. Mainly activated during paradoxical sleep (PS), MCH neurons have been implicated in sleep regulation. The genetic deletion of the only known MCH receptor in rodent leads to an impairment of hippocampal dependent forms of memory and to an alteration of hippocampal long-term synaptic plasticity. By using MCH/ataxin3 mice, a genetic model characterized by a selective deletion of MCH neurons in the adult, we investigated the role of MCH neurons in hippocampal synaptic plasticity and hippocampal-dependent forms of memory. MCH/ataxin3 mice exhibited a deficit in the early part of both long-term potentiation and depression in the CA1 area of the hippocampus. Post-tetanic potentiation (PTP) was diminished while synaptic depression induced by repetitive stimulation was enhanced suggesting an alteration of pre-synaptic forms of short-term plasticity in these mice. Behaviorally, MCH/ataxin3 mice spent more time and showed a higher level of hesitation as compared to their controls in performing a short-term memory T-maze task, displayed retardation in acquiring a reference memory task in a Morris water maze, and showed a habituation deficit in an open field task. Deletion of MCH neurons could thus alter spatial short-term memory by impairing short-term plasticity in the hippocampus. Altogether, these findings could provide a cellular mechanism by which PS may facilitate memory encoding. Via MCH neuron activation, PS could prepare the day's learning by increasing and modulating short-term synaptic plasticity in the hippocampus. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  6. Decoupling eye and hand movement control: visual short-term memory influences reach planning more than saccade planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Issen, Laurel A; Knill, David C

    2012-01-04

    When reaching for objects, humans make saccades to fixate the object at or near the time the hand begins to move. In order to address whether the CNS relies on a common representation of target positions to plan both saccades and hand movements, we quantified the contributions of visual short-term memory (VSTM) to hand and eye movements executed during the same coordinated actions. Subjects performed a sequential movement task in which they picked up one of two objects on the right side of a virtual display (the "weapon"), moved it to the left side of the display (to a "reloading station") and then moved it back to the right side to hit the other object (the target). On some trials, the target was perturbed by 1° of visual angle while subjects moved the weapon to the reloading station. Although subjects did not notice the change, the original position of the target, encoded in VSTM, influenced the motor plans for both the hand and the eye back to the target. Memory influenced motor plans for distant targets more than for near targets, indicating that sensorimotor planning is sensitive to the reliability of available information; however, memory had a larger influence on hand movements than on eye movements. This suggests that spatial planning for coordinated saccades and hand movements are dissociated at the level of processing at which online visual information is integrated with information in short-term memory.

  7. Short-term prognosis and risk factors of ventricular septal rupture following acute myocardial infarction

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    胡小莹

    2013-01-01

    Objective To analyze the short-term prognosis and risk factors of ventricular septal rupture(VSR)following acute myocardial infarction(AMI).Methods A total of 70 consecutive VSR patients following AMI hospitalized in

  8. Short-term prognosis and risk factors of ventricular septal rupture following acute myocardial infarction

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    胡小莹

    2013-01-01

    Objective To analyze the short-term prognosis and risk factors of ventricular septal rupture(VSR)following acute myocardial infarction(AMI).Methods A total of 70 consecutive VSR patients following AMI

  9. Effect of short-term pre-hatch heat shock of incubating eggs on ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Effect of short-term pre-hatch heat shock of incubating eggs on subsequent. ... of thermal conditioning of broiler chickens during embryonic development on subsequent ... Keywords: Heat stress, incubation, parent age, live weight, mortality

  10. Radiology, histology and short-term outcome of asymptomatic congenital thoracic malformations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kongstad, Thomas; Buchvald, Frederik; Brenøe, Jørn;

    2012-01-01

    The aim of this study was to evaluate the safety and short-term outcome of our management of asymptomatic children with antenatally diagnosed congenital thoracic malformations (CTM), compared with recommendations from a recent review and meta-analysis....

  11. Impact of medication adherence on absenteeism and short-term disability for five chronic diseases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carls, Ginger S; Roebuck, M Christopher; Brennan, Troyen A; Slezak, Julie A; Matlin, Olga S; Gibson, Teresa B

    2012-07-01

    To estimate the impact of medication adherence on absenteeism and short-term disability among employees with chronic disease. Cross-sectional analysis of administrative health care claims, absenteeism, and short-term disability data using multivariate regression and instrumental variable models for five cohorts of employees: diabetes, hypertension, congestive heart failure, dyslipidemia, and asthma/chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Adherence was defined as possessing medication on at least 80% of days during follow-up. Adherent employees with diabetes, hypertension, dyslipidemia, and asthma/chronic obstructive pulmonary disease realized between 1.7 and 7.1 fewer days absent from work and between 1.1 and 5.0 fewer days on short-term disability. Absenteeism and short-term disability days by adherent employees with congestive heart failure were not significantly different from nonadherent employees with the condition in most specifications. Appropriate management of chronic conditions can help employers minimize losses due to missed work.

  12. Stochastic Optimal Wind Power Bidding Strategy in Short-Term Electricity Market

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hu, Weihao; Chen, Zhe; Bak-Jensen, Birgitte

    2012-01-01

    minimization problem for trading wind power in the short-term electricity market is described, to help the wind power owners optimize their bidding strategy. Stochastic optimization and a Monte Carlo method are adopted to find the optimal bidding strategy for trading wind power in the short-term electricity....... Simulation results show that the stochastic optimal bidding strategy for trading wind power in the Danish short-term electricity market is an effective measure to maximize the revenue of the wind power owners.......Due to the fluctuating nature and non-perfect forecast of the wind power, the wind power owners are penalized for the imbalance costs of the regulation, when they trade wind power in the short-term liberalized electricity market. Therefore, in this paper a formulation of an imbalance cost...

  13. Stochastic Optimal Wind Power Bidding Strategy in Short-Term Electricity Market

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hu, Weihao; Chen, Zhe; Bak-Jensen, Birgitte

    2012-01-01

    minimization problem for trading wind power in the short-term electricity market is described, to help the wind power owners optimize their bidding strategy. Stochastic optimization and a Monte Carlo method are adopted to find the optimal bidding strategy for trading wind power in the short-term electricity...... market in order to deal with the uncertainty of the regulation price, the activated regulation of the power system and the forecasted wind power generation. The Danish short-term electricity market and a wind farm in western Denmark are chosen as study cases due to the high wind power penetration here....... Simulation results show that the stochastic optimal bidding strategy for trading wind power in the Danish short-term electricity market is an effective measure to maximize the revenue of the wind power owners....

  14. Birth weight and early lung compliance as predictors of short-term ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    of short-term outcome in premature ... defined as death from respiratory failure or the development of ... Child Health, Tygerberg Hospital and University of Stellenbosch,. Tygerberg ..... explained by the amount and degree of initial ventilatory.

  15. Automatic Cloud Resource Scaling Algorithm based on Long Short-Term Memory Recurrent Neural Network

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Ashraf A. Shahin

    2016-01-01

    .... This paper has proposed dynamic threshold based auto-scaling algorithms that predict required resources using Long Short-Term Memory Recurrent Neural Network and auto-scale virtual resources based on predicted values...

  16. Trend analysis and short-term forecast of incident HIV infection in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Trend analysis and short-term forecast of incident HIV infection in Ghana. ... The study uses time-series modelling to determine and predict trends in incident HIV ... in incident cases than that predicted by the National AIDS Control Programme.

  17. Audiovisual classification of vocal outbursts in human conversation using long-short-term memory networks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Eyben, Florian; Petridis, Stavros; Schuller, Björn; Tzimiropoulos, Georgios; Zafeiriou, Stefanos; Pantic, Maja

    2011-01-01

    We investigate classification of non-linguistic vocalisations with a novel audiovisual approach and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) Recurrent Neural Networks as highly successful dynamic sequence classifiers. As database of evaluation serves this year's Paralinguistic Challenge's Audiovisual Interest

  18. Changes in brain tissue and behavior patterns induced by single short-term fasting in mice

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Hisatomi, Yuko; Asakura, Kyo; Kugino, Kenji; Kurokawa, Mamoru; Asakura, Tomiko; Nakata, Keiko

    2013-01-01

    .... To clarify the impact of malnutrition on brain function, we conducted a single short-term fasting study as an anorexia model using male adult mice and determined if changes occurred in migratory...

  19. A Master Equation Approach to Modeling Short-term Behaviors of the Stock Market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Conan; Yang, Xiaoxiang; Mazilu, Irina

    2015-03-01

    Short term fluctuations in stock prices are highly random, due to the multitude of external factors acting on the price determination process. While long-term economic factors such as inflation and revenue growth rate affect short-term price fluctuation, it is difficult to obtain the complete set of information and uncertainties associated with a given period of time. Instead, we propose a simpler short-term model based on only prior price averages and extrema. In this paper, we take a master equation under the random walk hypothesis and fit parameters based on AAPL stock price data over the past ten years. We report results for small system sizes and for the short term average price. These results may lead to a general closed-form solution to this particular master equation.

  20. Differential light threshold in automated static perimetry. Factors influencing short-term fluctuation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flammer, J; Drance, S M; Fankhauser, F; Augustiny, L

    1984-06-01

    The scatter of the differential light threshold observed during a single visual field test is called the short-term fluctuation. A number of factors that may influence the magnitude of the short-term fluctuation were studied. The main factor was the level of the differential light sensitivity itself, followed by the rate of false responses in the catch trials. The pupil size was only notable in patients with glaucoma, while age as well as the mean reaction time did not appear to be notable. The short-term fluctuation is not dependent on the location in the visual field up to 27 degrees of eccentricity degrees tested in normal subjects and patients suspected of having glaucoma, but there is a slight tendency in patients with glaucoma for a larger short-term fluctuation in the upper half of the visual field.

  1. Renovating? Take a look at the new short-term paths to financing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kluger, M

    1984-02-01

    A hospital's renovation project can be financed through a diversity of financing techniques. Although the traditional vehicle for hospital capital financing is long-term, fixed-rate debt, there are a growing number of short-term financing alternatives that can provide greater flexibility and generate debt service savings. The author describes some of the new short-term financing techniques, as well as the advantages and disadvantages of short- versus long-term financing.

  2. Short-Term Wind Power Interval Forecasting Based on an EEMD-RT-RVM Model

    OpenAIRE

    Haixiang Zang; Lei Fan; Mian Guo; Zhinong Wei; Guoqiang Sun; Li Zhang

    2016-01-01

    Accurate short-term wind power forecasting is important for improving the security and economic success of power grids. Existing wind power forecasting methods are mostly types of deterministic point forecasting. Deterministic point forecasting is vulnerable to forecasting errors and cannot effectively deal with the random nature of wind power. In order to solve the above problems, we propose a short-term wind power interval forecasting model based on ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EE...

  3. Short-term HRV Biofeedback: Perspectives in Environmental Physiology and Medicine

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liliya V. Poskotinova

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available This review demonstrates the effectiveness of short-term HRV biofeedback sessions in an evaluation of human adaptation to uncomfortable environments. A single HRV biofeedback session can be used as a test for the effectiveness of cortical-visceral connections in patients with cardiovascular disease. In addition, this method can be used as short-term assistance in adaptation to social stressful factors.

  4. The Portuguese economy in the 1980s: structural change and short-term upheavals

    OpenAIRE

    Ana Bela Nunes

    2015-01-01

    The performance of the Portuguese economy during the 1980s was conditioned by two main factors: structural changes imposed by the decision to join the European Economic Community and external shocks and short-term fluctuations in the world economy. The first half of the 1980s Portugal’s economic performance was dominated by short-term macroeconomic problems, while international economic recovery after 1985 created a positive background for Portuguese economic growth and a convergence path tha...

  5. Short-term effects of tillage on mineralization of nitrogen and carbon in soil

    OpenAIRE

    Hanne L. Kristensen; Debosz, Kasia; McCarty, Greg W.

    2003-01-01

    Tillage is known to decrease soil organic nitrogen (N) and carbon (C) pools with negative consequences for soil quality. This decrease is thought partly to be caused by exposure of protected organic matter to microbial degradation by the disturbance of soil structure. Little is known, however, about the short-term effects of tillage on mineralization of N and C, and microbial activity. We studied the short-term effects of two types of tillage (conventional plough- and a non-inverting-tillage)...

  6. Short-term sleep deprivation stimulates hippocampal neurogenesis in rats following global cerebral ischemia/reperfusion.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oumei Cheng

    Full Text Available Sleep deprivation (SD plays a complex role in central nervous system (CNS diseases. Recent studies indicate that short-term SD can affect the extent of ischemic damage. The aim of this study was to investigate whether short-term SD could stimulate hippocampal neurogenesis in a rat model of global cerebral ischemia/reperfusion (GCIR.One hundred Sprague-Dawley rats were randomly divided into Sham, GCIR and short-term SD groups based on different durations of SD; the short-term SD group was randomly divided into three subgroups: the GCIR+6hSD*3d-treated, GCIR+12hSD-treated and GCIR+12hSD*3d-treated groups. The GCIR rat model was induced via the bilateral occlusion of the common carotid arteries and hemorrhagic hypotension. The rats were sleep-deprived starting at 48 h following GCIR. A Morris water maze test was used to assess learning and memory ability; cell proliferation and differentiation were analyzed via 5-bromodeoxyuridine (BrdU and neuron-specific enolase (NSE, respectively, at 14 and 28 d; the expression of hippocampal BDNF was measured after 7 d.The different durations of short-term SD designed in our experiment exhibited improvement in cognitive function as well as increased hippocampal BDNF expression. Additionally, the short-term SD groups also showed an increased number of BrdU- and BrdU/NSE-positive cells compared with the GCIR group. Of the three short-term SD groups, the GCIR+12hSD*3d-treated group experienced the most substantial beneficial effects.Short-term SD, especially the GCIR+12hSD*3d-treated method, stimulates neurogenesis in the hippocampal dentate gyrus (DG of rats that undergo GCIR, and BDNF may be an underlying mechanism in this process.

  7. Neural evidence for a distinction between short-term memory and the focus of attention

    OpenAIRE

    Lewis-Peacock, Jarrod A.; Drysdale, Andrew T.; Oberauer, Klaus; Postle, Bradley R.

    2012-01-01

    It is widely assumed that the short-term retention of information is accomplished via maintenance of an active neural trace. However, we demonstrate that memory can be preserved across a brief delay despite the apparent loss of sustained representations. Delay-period activity may in fact reflect the focus of attention, rather than short-term memory. We unconfounded attention and memory by causing external and internal shifts of attention away from items that were being actively retained. Mult...

  8. Assessment of the Short-Term Radiometric Stability between Terra MODIS and Landsat 7 ETM+ Sensors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choi, Taeyoung; Xiong, Xiaxiong; Chander, G.; Angal, Amit

    2009-01-01

    Constellation satellites, Terra MODIS flies approximately 30 minutes behind L7 ETM+ in the same orbit. The orbit of L7 is repetitive, circular, sunsynchronous, and near polar at a nominal altitude of 705 km (438 miles) at the Equator. The spacecraft crosses the Equator from north to south on a descending node between 10:00 AM and 10:15 AM. Circling the Earth at 7.5 km/sec, each orbit takes nearly 99 minutes. The spacecraft completes just over 14 orbits per day, covering the entire Earth between 81 degrees north and south latitude every 16 days. The longest continuous imaging swath that L7 sensor can collect is for a 14-minute subinterval contact period which is equivalent to 35 full WRS-2 scenes. On the other hand, Terra can provide the entire corresponding orbit with wider swath at any given ETM+ collection without contact time limitation. There are six spectral matching band pairs between MODIS (bands 3, 4, 1, 2, 6, 7) and ETM+ (bands 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 7) sensor. MODIS has narrower spectral responses than ETM+ in all the bands. A short-term radiometric stability was evaluated using continuous ETM+ scenes within the contact period and the corresponding half orbit MODIS scenes. The near simultaneous earth observations (SNO) were limited by the smaller swath size of ETM+ (187 km) as compared to MODIS (2330 km). Two sets of continuous granules for MODIS and ETM+ were selected and mosaiced based on pixel geolocation information for non cloudy pixels over the North American continent. The Top-of- Atmosphere (TOA) reflectances were computed for the spectrally matching bands between ETM+ and MODIS over the regions of interest (ROI). The matching pixel pairs were aggregated from a finer to a coarser pixel resolution and the TOA reflectance values covering a wide dynamic range of the sensors were compared and analyzed. Considering the uncertainties of the absolute calibration of the both sensors, radiometric stability was verified for the band pairs. The Railroad Valley Playa, Nada (RVPN

  9. Short-term fasting alters cytochrome P450-mediated drug metabolism in humans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lammers, Laureen A; Achterbergh, Roos; de Vries, Emmely M; van Nierop, F Samuel; Klümpen, Heinz-Josef; Soeters, Maarten R; Boelen, Anita; Romijn, Johannes A; Mathôt, Ron A A

    2015-06-01

    Experimental studies indicate that short-term fasting alters drug metabolism. However, the effects of short-term fasting on drug metabolism in humans need further investigation. Therefore, the aim of this study was to evaluate the effects of short-term fasting (36 h) on P450-mediated drug metabolism. In a randomized crossover study design, nine healthy subjects ingested a cocktail consisting of five P450-specific probe drugs [caffeine (CYP1A2), S-warfarin (CYP2C9), omeprazole (CYP2C19), metoprolol (CYP2D6), and midazolam (CYP3A4)] on two occasions (control study after an overnight fast and after 36 h of fasting). Blood samples were drawn for pharmacokinetic analysis using nonlinear mixed effects modeling. In addition, we studied in Wistar rats the effects of short-term fasting on hepatic mRNA expression of P450 isoforms corresponding with the five studied P450 enzymes in humans. In the healthy subjects, short-term fasting increased oral caffeine clearance by 20% (P = 0.03) and decreased oral S-warfarin clearance by 25% (P fasting increased mRNA expression of the orthologs of human CYP1A2, CYP2C19, CYP2D6, and CYP3A4 (P fasting alters cytochrome P450-mediated drug metabolism in a nonuniform pattern. Therefore, short-term fasting is another factor affecting cytochrome P450-mediated drug metabolism in humans.

  10. Effects of Short-term Hypergravity Exposure on Germination, Growth and Photosynthesis of Triticum aestivum L.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vidyasagar, Pandit B.; Jagtap, Sagar S.; Dixit, Jyotsana P.; Kamble, Shailendra M.; Dhepe, Aarti P.

    2014-12-01

    Numerous studies have been carried out to investigate the hypergravity effect on plants, where seedlings (4-5 days old) were continuously exposed and grown under hypergravity condition. Here, we have used a novel `shortterm hypergravity exposure experimental method' where imbibed caryopses (instead of seedlings) were exposed to higher hypergravity values ranging from 500 g to 2500 g for a short interval time of 10 minutes and post short-term hypergravity treated caryopses were grown under 1 g conditions for five days. Changing patterns in caryopsis germination and growth, along with various photosynthetic and biochemical parameters were studied. Results revealed the significant inhibition of caryopsis germination and growth in short-term hypergravity treated seeds over control. Photosynthesis parameters such as chlorophyll content, rate of photosynthesis (PN), transpiration rate (Evap) and stomatal conductance (Gs), along with intracellular CO2 concentration (Cint) were found to be affected significantly in 5 days old seedlings exposed to short-term hypergravity treatment. In order to investigate the cause of observed inhibition, we examined the α-amylase activity and antioxidative enzyme activities. α-amylase activity was found to be inhibited, along with the reduction of sugars necessary for germination and earlier growth in short-term hypergravity treated caryopses. The activities of antioxidant enzymes such as catalase and guaiacol peroxidase were increased in short-term hypergravity treated caryopses, suggesting that caryopses might have experienced oxidative stress upon short-term hypergravity exposure.

  11. [Short-term memory characteristics of vibration intensity tactile perception on human wrist].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hao, Fei; Chen, Li-Juan; Lu, Wei; Song, Ai-Guo

    2014-12-25

    In this study, a recall experiment and a recognition experiment were designed to assess the human wrist's short-term memory characteristics of tactile perception on vibration intensity, by using a novel homemade vibrotactile display device based on the spatiotemporal combination vibration of multiple micro vibration motors as a test device. Based on the obtained experimental data, the short-term memory span, recognition accuracy and reaction time of vibration intensity were analyzed. From the experimental results, some important conclusions can be made: (1) The average short-term memory span of tactile perception on vibration intensity is 3 ± 1 items; (2) The greater difference between two adjacent discrete intensities of vibrotactile stimulation is defined, the better average short-term memory span human wrist gets; (3) There is an obvious difference of the average short-term memory span on vibration intensity between the male and female; (4) The mechanism of information extraction in short-term memory of vibrotactile display is to traverse the scanning process by comparison; (5) The recognition accuracy and reaction time performance of vibrotactile display compares unfavourably with that of visual and auditory. The results from this study are important for designing vibrotactile display coding scheme.

  12. Analysis of excess lung cancer risk in short-term employees.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lamm, S H; Levine, M S; Starr, J A; Tirey, S L

    1988-06-01

    An excess of lung cancer found in a cohort of 741 New York State tremolitic talc workers observed from 1947 through 1978 has been shown paradoxically to be concentrated in short-term workers. Review of past work histories suggests that the excess of lung cancer in these short-term workers may be accounted for by prior exposures rather than by exposures at the employment under investigation. This finding has significant implications in view of the developing practice of including short-term workers in occupational cohort studies in contrast to the more traditional practice of excluding short-term workers. The traditional practice was based on the assumption that the inclusion of short-term workers with little exposure, and thus little risk, might dilute an otherwise apparent association between mortality and exposure. This study suggests that in certain instances the inclusion of short-term workers may magnify rather than dilute the estimation of risk, reflecting the presence of confounding variables.

  13. Long-term associative learning predicts verbal short-term memory performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Gary; Macken, Bill

    2017-10-02

    Studies using tests such as digit span and nonword repetition have implicated short-term memory across a range of developmental domains. Such tests ostensibly assess specialized processes for the short-term manipulation and maintenance of information that are often argued to enable long-term learning. However, there is considerable evidence for an influence of long-term linguistic learning on performance in short-term memory tasks that brings into question the role of a specialized short-term memory system separate from long-term knowledge. Using natural language corpora, we show experimentally and computationally that performance on three widely used measures of short-term memory (digit span, nonword repetition, and sentence recall) can be predicted from simple associative learning operating on the linguistic environment to which a typical child may have been exposed. The findings support the broad view that short-term verbal memory performance reflects the application of long-term language knowledge to the experimental setting.

  14. Very-long-term and short-term chromatic adaptation: are their influences cumulative?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Belmore, Suzanne C; Shevell, Steven K

    2011-02-09

    Very-long-term (VLT) chromatic adaptation results from exposure to an altered chromatic environment for days or weeks. Color shifts from VLT adaptation are observed hours or days after leaving the altered environment. Short-term chromatic adaptation, on the other hand, results from exposure for a few minutes or less, with color shifts measured within seconds or a few minutes after the adapting light is extinguished; recovery to the pre-adapted state is complete in less than an hour. Here, both types of adaptation were combined. All adaptation was to reddish-appearing long-wavelength light. Shifts in unique yellow were measured following adaptation. Previous studies demonstrate shifts in unique yellow due to VLT chromatic adaptation, but shifts from short-term chromatic adaptation to comparable adapting light can be far greater than from VLT adaptation. The question considered here is whether the color shifts from VLT adaptation are cumulative with large shifts from short-term adaptation or, alternatively, does simultaneous short-term adaptation eliminate color shifts caused by VLT adaptation. The results show the color shifts from VLT and short-term adaptation together are cumulative, which indicates that both short-term and very-long-term chromatic adaptation affect color perception during natural viewing. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Social Welfare and the Psychology of Food Sharing: Short-Term Hunger Increases Support for Social Welfare

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petersen, Michael Bang; Aarøe, Lene; Jensen, Niels Holm

    2014-01-01

    Do politically irrelevant events influence important policy opinions? Previous research on social welfare attitudes has emphasized the role of political factors such as economic self-interest and ideology. Here, we demonstrate that attitudes to social welfare are also influenced by short......-term fluctuations in hunger. Using theories in evolutionary psychology, we predict that hungry individuals will be greedier and take more resources from others while also attempting to induce others to share by signaling cooperative intentions and expressing support for sharing, including evolutionarily novel forms...... of sharing such as social welfare. We test these predictions using self-reported hunger data as well as comparisons of subjects who participated in relevant online studies before and after eating lunch. Across four studies collected in two different welfare regimes—the United Kingdom and Denmark...

  16. Online data base of satellite sounder and insitu measurements covering two solar cycles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bilitza, D.; Reinisch, B.; Benson, R.; Grebowsky, J.; Papitashvili, N.; Huang, X.; Schar, W.; Hills, K.

    Accurate descriptions of the solar cycle variations of ionospheric parameters are an important goal of ionospheric modeling. Reliable predictions of these variations are of essential importance for almost all applications of ionospheric models. Unfortunately there are very few global data sources that cover a solar cycle or more. In an effort to expand the solar cycle coverage of data readily available for ionospheric modeling, we have processed a large number of satellite data sets from the sixties, seventies, and early eighties and have made them online accessible as part of NSSDC's ftp archive (http://nssdcftp.gsfc.nasa.gov/spacecraft data/) and it's ATMOWeb retrieval and plotting system (http://nssdc.gsfc.nasa.gov/atmoweb/). We report about two data restoration efforts supported through NASA's Applied Information Systems Research Program (AISRP). The first project deals with insitu data from a large number of US, Canadian, Japanese and German satellites that measured ionospheric densities and temperatures from 1964 to 1983. The accumulated data base includes data from the BE-B, DME-A, AE-B, Alouette 2, ISIS 1, 2, OGO-6, AEROS A, AE-C, -D, -E, Hinotori, ISS-b and DE-2 satellite missions. The second project involves the production of digital topside sounder ionograms from the ISIS 1 and 2 satellites and their subsequent inversion to produce electron-density profiles. Approximately 340,000 ionograms are available from NSSDC as of July 2002. An automatic topside ionogram scaler with true height algorithm (TOPIST) was developed as part of this project and is now being used to obtain electron density profiles from these ionograms. Providing global coverage over more than two solar cycles the database established by this two projects is a valuable asset for improvements of the International Reference Ionosphere model and for ionospheric research.

  17. Short-term Mobility and Increased Partnership Concurrency among Men in Zimbabwe.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Susan Cassels

    Full Text Available Migration has long been understood as an underlying factor for HIV transmission, and sexual partner concurrency has been increasingly studied as an important component of HIV transmission dynamics. However, less work has examined the role of short-term mobility in sexual partner concurrency using a network approach. Short-term mobility may be a risk for HIV for the migrant's partner as well either through the partner's risk behaviors while the migrant is away, such as the partner having additional partners, or via exposure to the return migrant.Using data from the 2010-11 Zimbabwe Demographic and Health Survey, weighted generalized linear regression models were used to investigate the associations between short-term mobility and partnership concurrency at the individual and partnership levels.At the individual level, we find strong evidence of an association between short-term mobility and concurrency. Men who traveled were more likely to have concurrent partnerships compared to men who did not travel and the relationship was non-linear: each trip was associated with a 2% higher probability of concurrency, with a diminishing risk at 60 trips (p<0.001. At the partnership level, short-term mobility by the male only or both partners was associated with male concurrency. Couples in which the female only traveled exhibited less male concurrency.Short-term mobility has the ability to impact population-level transmission dynamics by facilitating partnership concurrency and thus onward HIV transmission. Short-term migrants may be an important population to target for HIV testing, treatment, or social and behavioral interventions to prevent the spread of HIV.

  18. A Bayesian Method for Short-Term Probabilistic Forecasting of Photovoltaic Generation in Smart Grid Operation and Control

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabriella Ferruzzi

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available A new short-term probabilistic forecasting method is proposed to predict the probability density function of the hourly active power generated by a photovoltaic system. Firstly, the probability density function of the hourly clearness index is forecasted making use of a Bayesian auto regressive time series model; the model takes into account the dependence of the solar radiation on some meteorological variables, such as the cloud cover and humidity. Then, a Monte Carlo simulation procedure is used to evaluate the predictive probability density function of the hourly active power by applying the photovoltaic system model to the random sampling of the clearness index distribution. A numerical application demonstrates the effectiveness and advantages of the proposed forecasting method.

  19. Long-Term, Seasonal and Short-Term Fluctuations in the Water Level of the Southern Baltic Sea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wolski Tomasz

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Aim of this work are analyses of oscillations sea levels in the Southern Baltic on a scale of short-term changes, seasonal and long-term (age. The study was based on observational data in different periods time for tide gauges station of the Polish coast. On the example of some storm situations presents the part of the baric wave and the wind in the formation of extreme sea levels. The primary cause of the annual variability of sea levels was the characteristics of the annual and semi-annual oscillations (the annual and semi-annual solar tide. In the work also determined the rate of long-term sea-level rise for the Polish coast.

  20. The Comparison Study of Short-Term Prediction Methods to Enhance the Model Predictive Controller Applied to Microgrid Energy Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    César Hernández-Hernández

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Electricity load forecasting, optimal power system operation and energy management play key roles that can bring significant operational advantages to microgrids. This paper studies how methods based on time series and neural networks can be used to predict energy demand and production, allowing them to be combined with model predictive control. Comparisons of different prediction methods and different optimum energy distribution scenarios are provided, permitting us to determine when short-term energy prediction models should be used. The proposed prediction models in addition to the model predictive control strategy appear as a promising solution to energy management in microgrids. The controller has the task of performing the management of electricity purchase and sale to the power grid, maximizing the use of renewable energy sources and managing the use of the energy storage system. Simulations were performed with different weather conditions of solar irradiation. The obtained results are encouraging for future practical implementation.

  1. Association between Early Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Symptoms and Current Verbal and Visuo-Spatial Short-Term Memory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gau, Susan Shur-Fen; Chiang, Huey-Ling

    2013-01-01

    Deficits in short-term memory are common in adolescents with attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), but their current ADHD symptoms cannot well predict their short-term performance. Taking a developmental perspective, we wanted to clarify the association between ADHD symptoms at early childhood and short-term memory in late childhood and…

  2. GF-GC Theory of Human Cognition: Differentiation of Short-Term Auditory and Visual Memory Factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGhee, Ron; Lieberman, Lewis

    1994-01-01

    Study sought to determine whether separate short-term auditory and visual memory factors would emerge given a sufficient number of markers in a factor matrix. A principal component factor analysis with varimax rotation was performed. Short-term visual and short-term auditory memory factors emerged as expected. (RJM)

  3. Effect of macronutrient composition on short-term food intake and weight loss.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bellissimo, Nick; Akhavan, Tina

    2015-05-01

    The purpose of this review is to describe the role of macronutrient composition on the suppression of short-term food intake (FI) and weight loss. The effects of macronutrient composition on short-term FI will be reviewed first, followed by a brief examination of longer-term clinical trials that vary in effects of dietary macronutrient composition on weight loss. The objectives were: 1) to examine the effect of macronutrient composition on the suppression of short-term FI, 2) to determine whether some macronutrient sources suppress FI beyond their provision of energy, 3) to assess the combined effects of macronutrients on FI and glycemic response, and 4) to determine whether knowledge of the effect of macronutrients on short-term FI has led to greater success in spontaneous weight loss, adherence to energy-restricted diets, and better weight maintenance after weight loss. Although knowledge of macronutrient composition on short-term FI regulation has advanced our understanding of the role of diet composition on energy balance, it has yet to lead to greater success in long-term weight loss and weight maintenance. It is clear from this review that many approaches based on manipulating dietary macronutrient composition can help people lose weight as long as they follow the diets. However, only by evaluating the interaction between the physiologic systems that govern FI and body weight may the benefits of dietary macronutrient composition be fully realized. © 2015 American Society for Nutrition.

  4. Forecasting the Short-Term Passenger Flow on High-Speed Railway with Neural Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mei-Quan Xie

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Short-term passenger flow forecasting is an important component of transportation systems. The forecasting result can be applied to support transportation system operation and management such as operation planning and revenue management. In this paper, a divide-and-conquer method based on neural network and origin-destination (OD matrix estimation is developed to forecast the short-term passenger flow in high-speed railway system. There are three steps in the forecasting method. Firstly, the numbers of passengers who arrive at each station or depart from each station are obtained from historical passenger flow data, which are OD matrices in this paper. Secondly, short-term passenger flow forecasting of the numbers of passengers who arrive at each station or depart from each station based on neural network is realized. At last, the OD matrices in short-term time are obtained with an OD matrix estimation method. The experimental results indicate that the proposed divide-and-conquer method performs well in forecasting the short-term passenger flow on high-speed railway.

  5. Semantic and phonological contributions to short-term repetition and long-term cued sentence recall.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meltzer, Jed A; Rose, Nathan S; Deschamps, Tiffany; Leigh, Rosie C; Panamsky, Lilia; Silberberg, Alexandra; Madani, Noushin; Links, Kira A

    2016-02-01

    The function of verbal short-term memory is supported not only by the phonological loop, but also by semantic resources that may operate on both short and long time scales. Elucidation of the neural underpinnings of these mechanisms requires effective behavioral manipulations that can selectively engage them. We developed a novel cued sentence recall paradigm to assess the effects of two factors on sentence recall accuracy at short-term and long-term stages. Participants initially repeated auditory sentences immediately following a 14-s retention period. After this task was complete, long-term memory for each sentence was probed by a two-word recall cue. The sentences were either concrete (high imageability) or abstract (low imageability), and the initial 14-s retention period was filled with either an undemanding finger-tapping task or a more engaging articulatory suppression task (Exp. 1, counting backward by threes; Exp. 2, repeating a four-syllable nonword). Recall was always better for the concrete sentences. Articulatory suppression reduced accuracy in short-term recall, especially for abstract sentences, but the sentences initially recalled following articulatory suppression were retained better at the subsequent cued-recall test, suggesting that the engagement of semantic mechanisms for short-term retention promoted encoding of the sentence meaning into long-term memory. These results provide a basis for using sentence imageability and subsequent memory performance as probes of semantic engagement in short-term memory for sentences.

  6. Short-term memory in the service of executive control functions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Farshad Alizadeh Mansouri

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Short-term memory is a crucial cognitive function for supporting on-going and upcoming behaviours, allowing storage of information across delay periods. The content of this memory may typically include tangible information about features such as the shape, colour or texture of an object, its location and motion relative to the body, or phonological information. The neural correlate of these short-term memories has been found in different brain areas involved in organizing perceptual or motor functions. In particular, neuronal activity in different prefrontal areas encodes task-related information corresponding to short-term memory across delay periods, and lesions in the prefrontal cortex severely affect the ability to hold this type of memory. Recent studies have further expanded the scope and possible role of short-term memory by showing that information of abstract entities such as a behaviour-guiding rule, or the occurrence of a conflict in information processing; can also be maintained in short-term memory and used for adjusting the allocation of executive control in dynamic environments. It has also been shown that neuronal activity in the dorsolateral prefrontal and orbitofrontal cortices encodes information about such abstract entities. These findings suggest that the prefrontal cortex plays crucial roles in organizing goal-directed behaviour by supporting various mnemonic processes that maintain a wide range of information in the service of executive control of on-going or upcoming behaviour.

  7. Short-term regulation of hydro powerplants. Studies on the environmental effects

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sinisalmi, T. [ed.; Forsius, J.; Muotka, J.; Soimakallio, H. [Imatran Voima Oy, Vantaa (Finland); Riihimaeki, J. [VTT, Espoo (Finland); Vehanen, T. [Finnish Game and Fisheries Research Inst. (Finland); Yrjaenae, T. [North Ostrobothnia Regional Environmental Centre, Oulu (Finland)

    1997-12-31

    The publication is a final report on a project studying effects of short-term regulation of hydro power plants. The project consists of two parts: (1) examining and developing methods for evaluation, (2) applying methods in a case study at the Oulujoki River. The economic value of short-term regulation was studied with a model consisting of an optimization model and a river simulation model. Constraints on water level or discharge variations could be given to the power plants and their economical influence could be studied. Effects on shoreline recreation use due to water level fluctuation were studied with a model where various effects are made commensurable and expressed in monetary terms. A literature survey and field experiments were used to study the methods for assessing effects of short-term regulation on river habitats. The state and development needs of fish stocks and fisheries in large regulated rivers were studied and an environmental classification was made. Remedial measures for the short-term regulated rivers were studied with a literature survey and enquiries. A comprehensive picture of the various effects of short-term regulation was gained in the case study in Oulujoki River (110 km long, 7 power plants). Harmful effects can be reduced with the given recommendations of remedial measures on environment and the usage of the hydro power plants. (orig.) 52 refs.

  8. Forecasting the short-term passenger flow on high-speed railway with neural networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, Mei-Quan; Li, Xia-Miao; Zhou, Wen-Liang; Fu, Yan-Bing

    2014-01-01

    Short-term passenger flow forecasting is an important component of transportation systems. The forecasting result can be applied to support transportation system operation and management such as operation planning and revenue management. In this paper, a divide-and-conquer method based on neural network and origin-destination (OD) matrix estimation is developed to forecast the short-term passenger flow in high-speed railway system. There are three steps in the forecasting method. Firstly, the numbers of passengers who arrive at each station or depart from each station are obtained from historical passenger flow data, which are OD matrices in this paper. Secondly, short-term passenger flow forecasting of the numbers of passengers who arrive at each station or depart from each station based on neural network is realized. At last, the OD matrices in short-term time are obtained with an OD matrix estimation method. The experimental results indicate that the proposed divide-and-conquer method performs well in forecasting the short-term passenger flow on high-speed railway.

  9. Category Specific Knowledge Modulate Capacity Limitations of Visual Short-Term Memory

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dall, Jonas Olsen; Watanabe, Katsumi; Sørensen, Thomas Alrik

    2016-01-01

    We explore whether expertise can modulate the capacity of visual short-term memory, as some seem to argue that training affects capacity of short-term memory [13] while others are not able to find this modulation [12]. We extend on a previous study [3] demonstrating expertise effects by investiga...... are in line with the theoretical interpretation that visual short-term memory reflects the sum of the reverberating feedback loops to representations in long-term memory.......We explore whether expertise can modulate the capacity of visual short-term memory, as some seem to argue that training affects capacity of short-term memory [13] while others are not able to find this modulation [12]. We extend on a previous study [3] demonstrating expertise effects......), and expert observers (Japanese university students). For both the picture and the letter condition we find no performance difference in memory capacity, however, in the critical hiragana condition we demonstrate a systematic difference relating expertise differences between the groups. These results...

  10. Short-term memory predictions across the lifespan: monitoring span before and after conducting a task.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bertrand, Julie Marilyne; Moulin, Chris John Anthony; Souchay, Céline

    2017-05-01

    Our objective was to explore metamemory in short-term memory across the lifespan. Five age groups participated in this study: 3 groups of children (4-13 years old), and younger and older adults. We used a three-phase task: prediction-span-postdiction. For prediction and postdiction phases, participants reported with a Yes/No response if they could recall in order a series of images. For the span task, they had to actually recall such series. From 4 years old, children have some ability to monitor their short-term memory and are able to adjust their prediction after experiencing the task. However, accuracy still improves significantly until adolescence. Although the older adults had a lower span, they were as accurate as young adults in their evaluation, suggesting that metamemory is unimpaired for short-term memory tasks in older adults. •We investigate metamemory for short-term memory tasks across the lifespan. •We find younger children cannot accurately predict their span length. •Older adults are accurate in predicting their span length. •People's metamemory accuracy was related to their short-term memory span.

  11. The impact of short-term stochastic variability in solar irradiance on optimal microgrid design

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schittekatte, Tim [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Pontificia Comillas Univ., Madrid (Spain); Florence School of Regulation, Firenze (Italy); Stadler, Michael [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Center for Energy Innovation Technologies, Hofamt Priel (Austria); Cardoso, Gonçalo [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Mashayekh, Salman [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Narayanan, Sankar [Microgrid Labs, Cary, NC (United States)

    2016-07-01

    This paper proposes a new methodology to capture the impact of fast moving clouds on utility power demand charges observed in microgrids with photovoltaic (PV) arrays, generators, and electrochemical energy storage. It consists of a statistical approach to introduce sub-hourly events in the hourly economic accounting process. The methodology is implemented in the Distributed Energy Resources Customer Adoption Model (DER-CAM), a state of the art mixed integer linear model used to optimally size DER in decentralized energy systems. Results suggest that previous iterations of DER-CAM could undersize battery capacities. The improved model depicts more accurately the economic value of PV as well as the synergistic benefits of pairing PV with storage.

  12. Solar Wind Driven Autoregression Model for Ionospheric Short Term Forecast (SWIF)

    Science.gov (United States)

    2008-06-01

    International Symposium on Equatorial Aeronomy (ISEA), 19-23 May 2008, Crete, Greece 6. “From DIAS to EURIPOS: the European Research Network of...International Symposium on Equatorial Aeronomy (ISEA), 19-23 May 2008, Crete, Greece EOARD Contract FA8655-07-M-4008, Final Report, June 2008

  13. Arousal modulates activity in the medial temporal lobe during a short-term relational memory task.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christian eThoresen

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available This study investigated the effect of arousal on short-term relational memory and its underlying cortical network. Seventeen healthy participants performed a picture by location, short-term relational memory task using emotional pictures. Functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging was used to measure the BOLD signal relative to task. Subjects’ own ratings of the pictures were used to obtain subjective arousal ratings. Subjective arousal was found to have a dose-dependent effect on activations in the prefrontal cortex, amygdala, hippocampus and in higher order visual areas. Serial position analyses showed that high arousal trials produced a stronger primacy and recency effect than low arousal trials. The results indicate that short-term relational memory may be facilitated by arousal and that this may be modulated by a dose-response function in arousal-driven neuronal regions.

  14. Short term integrative meditation improves resting alpha activity and stroop performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fan, Yaxin; Tang, Yi-Yuan; Tang, Rongxiang; Posner, Michael I

    2014-12-01

    Our previous research showed that short term meditation training reduces the time to resolve conflict in the flanker task. Studies also show that resting alpha increases with long term meditation practice. The aim of this study is to determine whether short term meditation training both increases resting alpha activity and reduces the time to resolve conflict in the Stroop task and whether these two effects are related. Forty-three Chinese undergraduates were randomly assigned an experiment group given 5 days meditation training using integrative body-mind training (IBMT) and a relaxation training control. After training, only the IBMT group showed decreased conflict reaction time (RT), and increased resting mean alpha power. Moreover, the higher the enhancement of resting alpha power, the stronger the improvement of conflict RT. The results indicate that short term meditation diffusely enhances alpha and improves the ability to deal with conflict and moreover these two effects are positively related.

  15. Study on the Method of Short-Term Synthetic Earthquake Prediction in the North China Region

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Ping Jianjun; Zhang Yongxian; Zhang Qingrong; Liu Suying; Chen Jianguo; Huang Wanfa; Mi Xuemei

    2004-01-01

    Based on the extraction and calculation of the short-term seismic precursory information magnitude from the 114 major precursory observations in the North China region, and together with consideration of factors such as geological structure, seismicity, crustal thickness, and in particular, the current geodynamics of the region, the authors studied the time-space evolution characteristics of the short-term earthquake precursory information magnitude and its relationship with earthquakes and proposed the index and method for the short-term synthetic prediction of earthquakes with Ms ≥ 5.0 in the North China region. The inspection through Rvalue shows that the method is effective to a certain extent for earthquake prediction.

  16. Jump Diffusion Modelling for the Brazilian Short-Term Interest Rate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José Carlos Nogueira Cavalcante Filho

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available In order to capture the informational effect of the Brazilian short-term interest rate (SELIC rate by Poisson jumps, we build on the tests condu cted by Das (2002 and Johannes (2004, which show the significance of such structures for U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC announcements. As in the above researches, w e have found evidence that a relevant amount of the short-term volatility in the fixed in come market is captured by introducing jumps on the stochastic process of the short-term r ate. This structure also allows the verification of the information content of specific events, such as Brazilian monetary policy authority (COPOM meetings and public bond auctions.

  17. Category Specific Knowledge Modulate Capacity Limitations of Visual Short-Term Memory

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dall, Jonas Olsen; Watanabe, Katsumi; Sørensen, Thomas Alrik

    2016-01-01

    We explore whether expertise can modulate the capacity of visual short-term memory, as some seem to argue that training affects capacity of short-term memory [13] while others are not able to find this modulation [12]. We extend on a previous study [3] demonstrating expertise effects......), and expert observers (Japanese university students). For both the picture and the letter condition we find no performance difference in memory capacity, however, in the critical hiragana condition we demonstrate a systematic difference relating expertise differences between the groups. These results...... are in line with the theoretical interpretation that visual short-term memory reflects the sum of the reverberating feedback loops to representations in long-term memory....

  18. Current practice with regard to short-term incentive schemes for middle managers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chrisilla Grigoiadis

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available This study aimed to determine what the current practice is with regard to short-term incentive schemes for middle managers. This was done by means of a quantitative study through a structured research survey completed by a sample of forty-eight organisations. The design elements, performance measures and payout practices of the various schemes in use were surveyed, as well as the participants’ view on the perceived effectiveness of their short-term incentive schemes. Evidence shows that the majority of organisations have a short-term incentive scheme in place for middle managers, and that the type of scheme used in most of the organisations is a performance-related bonus scheme, introduced mainly to drive business performance and reward superior performance.

  19. A long-term/short-term model for daily electricity prices with dynamic volatility

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schlueter, Stephan

    2010-09-15

    In this paper we introduce a new stochastic long-term/short-term model for short-term electricity prices, and apply it to four major European indices, namely to the German, Dutch, UK and Nordic one. We give evidence that all time series contain certain periodic (mostly annual) patterns, and show how to use the wavelet transform, a tool of multiresolution analysis, for filtering purpose. The wavelet transform is also applied to separate the long-term trend from the short-term oscillation in the seasonal-adjusted log-prices. In all time series we find evidence for dynamic volatility, which we incorporate by using a bivariate GARCH model with constant correlation. Eventually we fit various models from the existing literature to the data, and come to the conclusion that our approach performs best. For the error distribution, the Normal Inverse Gaussian distribution shows the best fit. (author)

  20. The difference in subjective and objective complexity in the visual short-term memory

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dall, Jonas Olsen; Sørensen, Thomas Alrik

    Several studies discuss the influence of complexity on the visual short term memory; some have demonstrated that short-term memory is surprisingly stable regardless of content (e.g. Luck & Vogel, 1997) where others have shown that memory can be influenced by the complexity of stimulus (e.g. Alvarez...... characters. On the contrary expertise or word frequency may reflect what could be termed subjective complexity, as this relate directly to the individual mental categories established. This study will be able to uncover more details on how we should define complexity of objects to be encoded into short-term....... & Cavanagh, 2004). But the term complexity is often not clearly defined. Sørensen (2008; see also Dall, Katsumi, & Sørensen, 2016) suggested that complexity can be related to two different types; objective and subjective complexity. This distinction is supported by a number of studies on the influence...

  1. Temporal Prediction Errors Affect Short-Term Memory Scanning Response Time.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Limongi, Roberto; Silva, Angélica M

    2016-11-01

    The Sternberg short-term memory scanning task has been used to unveil cognitive operations involved in time perception. Participants produce time intervals during the task, and the researcher explores how task performance affects interval production - where time estimation error is the dependent variable of interest. The perspective of predictive behavior regards time estimation error as a temporal prediction error (PE), an independent variable that controls cognition, behavior, and learning. Based on this perspective, we investigated whether temporal PEs affect short-term memory scanning. Participants performed temporal predictions while they maintained information in memory. Model inference revealed that PEs affected memory scanning response time independently of the memory-set size effect. We discuss the results within the context of formal and mechanistic models of short-term memory scanning and predictive coding, a Bayes-based theory of brain function. We state the hypothesis that our finding could be associated with weak frontostriatal connections and weak striatal activity.

  2. The Nature of Short-Term Consolidation in Visual Working Memory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ricker, Timothy J; Hardman, Kyle O

    2017-07-13

    Short-term consolidation is the process by which stable working memory representations are created. This process is fundamental to cognition yet poorly understood. The present work examines short-term consolidation using a Bayesian hierarchical model of visual working memory recall to determine the underlying processes at work. Our results show that consolidation functions largely through changing the proportion of memory items successfully maintained until test. Although there was some evidence that consolidation affects representational precision, this change was modest and could not account for the bulk of the consolidation effect on memory performance. The time course of the consolidation function and selective influence of consolidation on specific serial positions strongly indicates that short-term consolidation induces an attentional blink. The blink leads to deficits in memory for the immediately following item when time pressure is introduced. Temporal distinctiveness accounts of the consolidation process are tested and ruled out. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

  3. A Postsynaptic Role for Short-Term Neuronal Facilitation in Dendritic Spines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Sunggu; Santos, Mariton D.; Tang, Cha-Min; Kim, Jae Geun; Yang, Sungchil

    2016-01-01

    Synaptic plasticity is a fundamental component of information processing in the brain. Presynaptic facilitation in response to repetitive stimuli, often referred to as paired-pulse facilitation (PPF), is a dominant form of short-term synaptic plasticity. Recently, an additional cellular mechanism for short-term facilitation, short-term postsynaptic plasticity (STPP), has been proposed. While a dendritic mechanism was described in hippocampus, its expression has not yet been demonstrated at the levels of the spine. Furthermore, it is unknown whether the mechanism can be expressed in other brain regions, such as sensory cortex. Here, we demonstrated that a postsynaptic response can be facilitated by prior spine excitation in both hippocampal and cortical neurons, using 3D digital holography and two-photon calcium imaging. The coordinated action of pre- and post-synaptic plasticity may provide a more thorough account of information processing in the brain.

  4. Obese patients have similar short-term outcomes to nonobese in laparoscopic colorectal surgery

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Manish; Chand; Henry; D; De’Ath; Muhammed; Siddiqui; Chetanya; Mehta; Shahnawaz; Rasheed; James; Bromilow; Tahseen; Qureshi

    2015-01-01

    AIM: To determine whether obese patients undergoing laparoscopic surgery within an enhanced recovery program had worse short-term outcomes.METHODS: A prospective study of consecutive patients undergoing laparoscopic colorectal resection was carried out between 2008 and 2011 in a single institution. Patients were divided in groups based on body mass index(BMI). Short-term outcomes including operative data, length of stay, complications and readmission rates were recorded and compared between the groups. Continuous data were analysed using t-test or oneway Analysis of Variance. χ2 test was used to compare categorical data.RESULTS: Two hundred and fifty four patients were included over the study period. The majority of individuals(41.7%) recruited were of a healthy weight(BMI 25) does not lead to worse short-term outcomes in laparoscopic colorectal surgery and therefore such patients should not be precluded from laparoscopic surgery.

  5. Short-term load forecasting using neural network for future smart grid application

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zennamo, Joseph Anthony, III

    Short-term load forecasting of power system has been a classic problem for a long time. Not merely it has been researched extensively and intensively, but also a variety of forecasting methods has been raised. This thesis outlines some aspects and functions of smart meter. It also presents different policies and current statuses as well as future projects and objectives of SG development in several countries. Then the thesis compares main aspects about latest products of smart meter from different companies. Lastly, three types of prediction models are established in MATLAB to emulate the functions of smart grid in the short-term load forecasting, and then their results are compared and analyzed in terms of accuracy. For this thesis, more variables such as dew point temperature are used in the Neural Network model to achieve more accuracy for better short-term load forecasting results.

  6. Dispersant trial at ANO-2: Qualification for a short-term trial prior to SG replacement

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fruzzetti, K.; Frattini, P. [Electric Power Research Inst., Palo Alto, CA (United States); Robbins, P. [Entergy Operations, Arkansas Nuclear One, Russellville, AR (United States); Miller, A. [Pedro Point Technology, Inc., Pacifica, CA (United States); Varrin, R.; Kreider, M. [Dominion Engineering Inc., McLean, VA (United States)

    2002-07-01

    initiators, polymeric dispersants had not been utilized in the nuclear industry. Only recently has a poly-acrylic acid dispersant, developed by BetzDearborn (PAA), been available off the shelf that meets the criteria for nuclear application. This paper summarizes the qualification program designed to qualify the PAA dispersant for the short-term trial at ANO-2 prior to SG replacement. (authors)

  7. Verification of“Trend-Volatility Model”in Short-Term Forecast of Grain Production Potential

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    MI Chang-hong

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available The "trend-volatility model" in short-term forecasting of grain production potential was verified and discussed systematically by using the grain production data from 1949 to 2014, in 16 typical counties and 6 typical districts, and 31 provinces, of China. The results showed as follows:(1 Size of forecast error reflected the precision of short-term production potential, the main reason of large prediction error was a great amount of high yield farmlands were occupied in developed areas and a great increase of vegetable and fruit planted that made grain yield decreased in a short time;(2 The micro-trend amendment method was a necessary part of "trend-volatility model", which could involve the short-term factors such as meteorological factors, science and technology input, social factors and other effects, while macro-trend prediction could not. Therefore, The micro-trend amendment method could improve the forecast precision.(3 In terms of actual situation in recent years in China, the more developed the areas was, the bigger the volatility of short-term production potential was; For the short-term production potential, the stage of increasing-decreasing-recovering also existed in developed areas;(4 In the terms of forecast precision of short-terms production potential, the scale of national was higher than the scale of province, the scale of province was higher than the scale of district, the scale of district was higher than the scale of county. And it was large differences in precision between different provinces, different districts and different counties respectively, which was concerned to the complementarity of domestic climate and the ability of the farmland resistance to natural disasters.

  8. Short term memory, physical fitness, and serum brain-derived neurotrophic factor in obese adolescents

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rini Rossanti

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Background Obesity in adolescents is a major health problem and has been associated with low academic achievement. Brain-derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF, a neurotrophin, plays a role in appetite suppression and memory, and its secretion is enhanced by physical activity. This neurotrophin may be associated with academic achievement in obese. Objective To compare physical fitness and serum BDNF levels to short term memory levels in obese adolescents aged 10–14 years. Methods This comparative, cross-sectional, analytic study was carried out on 40 elementary and high school students in Bandung, West Java, who were recruited by stratified random sampling. Short term memory was assessed by a psychologist using the Wechsler Intelligence Scale for Children-III Digit Span test (WISC-III Digit Span. Physical fitness was assessed by a clinical exercise physiologist using the Asian Committee on the Standardization of Physical Fitness Test (ACSPFT. Serum BDNF levels were measured by ELISA test in a certified laboratory. ANOVA test was used to assess for a correlation between serum BDNF concentration and short term memory, as well as between physical fitness level and short term memory. Pearson’s correlation test was used to analyze for a correlation between serum BDNF and physical fitness levels. Results The majority of subjects were in the physical fitness categories of moderate or poor. Subjects had a mean BDNF level of 44,227.8 (SD 10,359 pg/mL. There was no statistically significant difference in physical fitness with either serum BDNF or with short term memory levels (P=0.139 and P=0.383, respectively. Also, no correlation was determined between serum BDNF and physical fitness levels (r=0.222; P=0.169. Conclusion In obese adolescents, short term memory levels are not significantly different between physical fitness levels nor between serum BDNF levels.

  9. Short term memory, physical fitness, and serum brain-derived neurotrophic factor in obese adolescents

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rini Rossanti

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Background Obesity in adolescents is a major health problem and has been associated with low academic achievement. Brainderived neurotrophic factor (BDNF, a neurotrophin, plays a role in appetite suppression and memory, and its secretion is enhanced by physical activity. This neurotrophin may be associated with academic achievement in obese. Objective To compare physical fitness and serum BDNF levels to short term memory levels in obese adolescents aged 10–14 years. Methods This comparative, cross-sectional, analytic study was carried out on 40 elementary and high school students in Bandung, West Java, who were recruited by stratified random sampling. Short term memory was assessed by a psychologist using the Wechsler Intelligence Scale for Children-III Digit Span test (WISC-III Digit Span. Physical fitness was assessed by a clinical exercise physiologist using the Asian Committee on the Standardization of Physical Fitness Test (ACSPFT. Serum BDNF levels were measured by ELISA test in a certified laboratory. ANOVA test was used to assess for a correlation between serum BDNF concentration and short term memory, as well as between physical fitness level and short term memory. Pearson’s correlation test was used to analyze for a correlation between serum BDNF and physical fitness levels. Results The majority of subjects were in the physical fitness categories of moderate or poor. Subjects had a mean BDNF level of 44,227.8 (SD 10,359 pg/mL. There was no statistically significant difference in physical fitness with either serum BDNF or with short term memory levels (P=0.139 and P=0.383, respectively. Also, no correlation was determined between serum BDNF and physical fitness levels (r=0.222; P=0.169. Conclusion In obese adolescents, short term memory levels are not significantly different between physical fitness levels nor between serum BDNF levels.

  10. Some risks related to the short-term trading of natural gas

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mazighi, Ahmed El Hachemi

    2004-07-01

    Traditionally guided by long-term contracts, the international natural gas trade is experiencing new methods of operating, based on the short term and more flexibility. Today, indeed, the existence of uncommitted quantities of natural gas, combined with gas price discrepancies among different regions of the world, gives room for the expansion of the spot-trading of gas. The main objective of this paper is to discuss three fundamental risks related to the short-term trading of natural gas: volume risk, price risk and infrastructure risk. The defenders of globalisation argue that the transition from the long-term to the short-term trading of natural gas is mainly a question of access to gas reserves, decreasing costs of gas liquefaction, the building of liquefied natural gas (LNG) fleets and regasification facilities and third-party access to the infrastructure. This process needs to be as short as possible, so that the risks related to the transition process will disappear rapidly. On the other hand, the detractors of globalisation put the emphasis on the complexity of the gas value chain and on the fact that eliminating long-term contracts increases the risks inherent to the international natural gas business. In this paper, we try to untangle and assess the risks related to the short-term trading of natural gas. Our main conclusions are: the short-term trading of gas is far from riskless; volume risk requires stock-building in both consuming and producing countries; price risk, through the high volatility for gas, induces an increase in options prices; there is no evidence to suggest that money-lenders' appetite for financing gas infrastructure projects will continue in a short-term trading system. This would be a threat to consumers' security of supply. (Author)

  11. The index gage method to develop a flow duration curve from short-term streamflow records

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Zhenxing

    2017-10-01

    The flow duration curve (FDC) is one of the most commonly used graphical tools in hydrology and provides a comprehensive graphical view of streamflow variability at a particular site. For a gaged site, an FDC can be easily estimated with frequency analysis. When no streamflow records are available, regional FDCs are used to synthesize FDCs. However, studies on how to develop FDCs for sites with short-term records have been very limited. Deriving representative FDC when there are short-term hydrologic records is important. For instance, 43% of the 394 streamflow gages in Illinois have records of 20 years or fewer, and these short-term gages are often distributed in headwaters and contain valuable hydrologic information. In this study, the index gage method is proposed to develop FDCs using short-term hydrologic records via an information transfer technique from a nearby hydrologically similar index gage. There are three steps: (1) select an index gage; (2) determine changes of FDC; and (3) develop representative FDCs. The approach is tested using records from 92 U.S. Geological Survey streamflow gages in Illinois. A jackknife experiment is conducted to assess the performance. Bootstrap resampling is used to simulate various periods of records, i.e., 1, 2, 5, 10, 15, and 20 years of records. The results demonstrated that the index gage method is capable of developing a representative FDC using short-term records. Generally, the approach performance is improved when more hydrologic records are available, but the improvement appears to level off when the short-term gage has 10 years or more records.

  12. Neural mechanisms of semantic interference and false recognition in short-term memory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Atkins, Alexandra S; Reuter-Lorenz, Patricia A

    2011-06-01

    Decades of research using the Deese-Roediger-McDermott (DRM) paradigm have demonstrated that episodic memory is vulnerable to semantic distortion, and neuroimaging investigations of this phenomenon have shown dissociations between the neural mechanisms subserving true and false retrieval from long-term memory. Recently, false short-term memories have also been demonstrated, with false recognition of items related in meaning to memoranda encoded less than 5s earlier. Semantic interference is also evident in short-term memory, such that correct rejection of related lures is slowed relative to correct rejection of unrelated lures. The present research constitutes the first fMRI investigation of false recognition and semantic interference in short-term memory using a short-term DRM paradigm in which participants retained 4 semantic associates over a short 4-s filled retention interval. Results showed increased activation in the left mid-ventrolateral prefrontal cortex (BA45) associated with semantic interference, and significant correlations between these increases and behavioral measures of interference across subjects. Furthermore, increases in dorsolateral PFC occurred when related lures were correctly rejected versus falsely remembered. Compared with false recognition, true recognition was associated with increases in left fusiform gyrus, a finding consistent with the notion that increased perceptual processing may distinguish true from false recognition over both short and long retention intervals. Findings are discussed in relation to current models of interference resolution in short-term memory, and suggest that false short-term recognition occurs as a consequence of the failure of frontally mediated cognitive control processes which adjudicate semantic familiarity in support of accurate mnemonic retrieval.

  13. Four Examples of Short-Term and Imminent Prediction of Earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    zeng, zuoxun; Liu, Genshen; Wu, Dabin; Sibgatulin, Victor

    2014-05-01

    channel. In this way, the Minxian earthquake is successfully predicted. Short-Term and Medium-Term Prediction of Nantou Earthquake (Ms6.7) According to the analysis of the solar activity taking the sunspot number as the main factor, the two-time method of magnetic storm related to lunar phase, the analysis of the earthquake cloud and the intersection point of magnetic anomalies, We predicted that there would be an earthquake with magnitude of ML6.2 ± 0.4 occurring in Taiwan (24 ± 0.2, 121 ± 0.2E) before the mid-month of June, 2013. On May 27th, 2013, Jianwen Huang raised the alarm that the stresses were concentrating in Nantou county of Taiwan. On May 29th, he further raised the special alarm that intensive stresses were continuously concentrating. At 12:34 of June 2nd, 2013, a Ms6.7 (ML6.3) earthquake occurred in Nantou of Taiwan with the epicenter at (23.87N, 121.00E). Short-Term Prediction of Dujiangyan Earthquake (Ms4.1) At 17:16, June 3rd, 2013, on the basis of comprehensive analysis of the correspondence between cloud and ground observation by Dabing Wu, the strip degasification along the north part of the Longmenshan fracture zone and the satellite gravity anomalies of the area, Zuoxun Zeng made a prediction that the epicenter would be in (31N, 104E), the magnitude would be in Ms5.5 ± 0.5, the occurring time would be in 2 months. At 7:39, July 8th, 2013, an earthquake occurred at the border between Dujiangyan city and Wenchuan county (31.3N, 03.6E) with magnitude of Ms4.1. We name it Dujiangyan earthquake in the article.

  14. Standardizing the performance evaluation of short-term wind prediction models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Henrik; Pinson, Pierre; Kariniotakis, G.

    2005-01-01

    Short-term wind power prediction is a primary requirement for efficient large-scale integration of wind generation in power systems and electricity markets. The choice of an appropriate prediction model among the numerous available models is not trivial, and has to be based on an objective...... evaluation of model performance. This paper proposes a standardized protocol for the evaluation of short-term wind-poser preciction systems. A number of reference prediction models are also described, and their use for performance comparison is analysed. The use of the protocol is demonstrated using results...

  15. Short-term effects of Gamma Ray Bursts on oceanic photosynthesis

    CERN Document Server

    Penate, Liuba; Cardenas, Rolando; Agusti, Susana

    2010-01-01

    We continue our previous work on the potential short-term influence of a gamma ray bursts on Earth's biosphere, focusing on the only important short-term effect on life: the ultraviolet flash which occurs as a result of the retransmission of the {\\gamma} radiation through the atmosphere. Thus, in this work we calculate the ultraviolet irradiances penetrating the first hundred meters of the water column, for Jerlov's ocean water types I, II and III. Then we estimate the UV flash potential for photosynthesis inhibition, showing that it can be important in a considerable part of the water column with light enough for photosynthesis to be done, the so called photic zone.

  16. Characterizing short-term stability for Boolean networks over any distribution of transfer functions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seshadhri, C.; Smith, Andrew M.; Vorobeychik, Yevgeniy; Mayo, Jackson R.; Armstrong, Robert C.

    2016-07-01

    We present a characterization of short-term stability of Kauffman's N K (random) Boolean networks under arbitrary distributions of transfer functions. Given such a Boolean network where each transfer function is drawn from the same distribution, we present a formula that determines whether short-term chaos (damage spreading) will happen. Our main technical tool which enables the formal proof of this formula is the Fourier analysis of Boolean functions, which describes such functions as multilinear polynomials over the inputs. Numerical simulations on mixtures of threshold functions and nested canalyzing functions demonstrate the formula's correctness.

  17. Stochastic Optimal Wind Power Bidding Strategy in Short-Term Electricity Market

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hu, Weihao; Chen, Zhe; Bak-Jensen, Birgitte

    2012-01-01

    Due to the fluctuating nature and non-perfect forecast of the wind power, the wind power owners are penalized for the imbalance costs of the regulation, when they trade wind power in the short-term liberalized electricity market. Therefore, in this paper a formulation of an imbalance cost minimiz....... Simulation results show that the stochastic optimal bidding strategy for trading wind power in the Danish short-term electricity market is an effective measure to maximize the revenue of the wind power owners....

  18. Short-term load forecasting study of wind power based on Elman neural network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tian, Xinran; Yu, Jing; Long, Teng; Liu, Jicheng

    2017-01-01

    Since wind power has intermittent, irregular and volatility nature, improving load forecasting accuracy of wind power has significant influence on controlling wind system and guarantees stable operation of power grids. This paper constructed the wind farm loading forecasting in short-term based on Elman neural network, and made a numerical example analysis. . Examples show that, using input delayed of feedback Elman neural network, can reflect the inherent laws of wind load operation better, so as to present a new idea for short-term load forecasting of wind power.

  19. Improved hepatic lipid composition following short-term exercise in nonalcoholic fatty liver disease

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Haus, Jacob M; Solomon, Thomas; Kelly, Karen R

    2013-01-01

    . Design and Participants: Obese individuals (N = 17, 34.3 ± 1.0 kg/m2) with clinically confirmed NAFLD were enrolled in a short-term aerobic exercise program that consisted of 7 consecutive days of treadmill walking at ∼85% of maximal heart rate for 60 minutes per day. Preintervention and postintervention......Hepatic steatosis, insulin resistance, inflammation, low levels of polyunsaturated lipids, and adiponectin are implicated in the development and progression of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). Objective: We examined the effects of short-term aerobic exercise on these metabolic risk factors...

  20. Wavelet time series MPARIMA modeling for power system short term load forecasting

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    冉启文; 单永正; 王建赜; 王骐

    2003-01-01

    The wavelet power system short term load forecasting(STLF) uses a mulriple periodical autoregressive integrated moving average(MPARIMA) model to model the mulriple near-periodicity, nonstationarity and nonlinearity existed in power system short term quarter-hour load time series, and can therefore accurately forecast the quarter-hour loads of weekdays and weekends, and provide more accurate results than the conventional techniques, such as artificial neural networks and autoregressive moving average(ARMA) models test results. Obtained with a power system networks in a city in Northeastern part of China confirm the validity of the approach proposed.

  1. A Comparison of Different Short-Term Macroeconomic Forecasting Models: Evidence from Armenia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Poghosyan Karen

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available We evaluate the forecasting performance of four competing models for short-term macroeconomic forecasting: the traditional VAR, small scale Bayesian VAR, Factor Augmented VAR and Bayesian Factor Augmented VAR models. Using Armenian quarterly actual macroeconomic time series from 1996Q1 – 2014Q4, we estimate parameters of four competing models. Based on the out-of-sample recursive forecast evaluations and using root mean squared error (RMSE criterion we conclude that small scale Bayesian VAR and Bayesian Factor Augmented VAR models are more suitable for short-term forecasting than traditional unrestricted VAR model.

  2. Characterizing short-term stability for Boolean networks over any distribution of transfer functions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seshadhri, C; Smith, Andrew M; Vorobeychik, Yevgeniy; Mayo, Jackson R; Armstrong, Robert C

    2016-07-01

    We present a characterization of short-term stability of Kauffman's NK (random) Boolean networks under arbitrary distributions of transfer functions. Given such a Boolean network where each transfer function is drawn from the same distribution, we present a formula that determines whether short-term chaos (damage spreading) will happen. Our main technical tool which enables the formal proof of this formula is the Fourier analysis of Boolean functions, which describes such functions as multilinear polynomials over the inputs. Numerical simulations on mixtures of threshold functions and nested canalyzing functions demonstrate the formula's correctness.

  3. Long- and Short-Term Photometric Behavior of Comet Hyakutake (1996 B2)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schleicher, David G.; Osip, David J.

    2002-09-01

    Narrowband filter photometry observations of Comet Hyakutake (1996 B2) were used to investigate this comet's short-term variability as well as its behavior for the apparition as a whole. Utilizing measurements obtained on a total of 13 nights between February 9, 1996, and April 14, 1996, we find that the heliocentric distance ( rH) dependence of the production rates of OH and NH were much shallower than those for either the carbon-bearing species or the visible dust. Based on the OH measurements, the derived water rH-dependence was also significantly less steep than expected from a basic water vaporization model and required an effective active surface area of about 29 km 2 at rH=1.8 AU, 16 km 2 at rH=1 AU, and only 13 km 2 at rH=0.6 AU. This decrease in active area may be due to seasonally induced variations of a heterogeneous surface, or due to a decreasing contribution of gas from icy grains in the innermost coma. The relative abundances of the minor gas species place Hyakutake into the "typical" category of comets in the A'Hearn et al. (1995, Icarus118, 223-270) taxonomic classification system. The spectrum is generally redder at shorter wavelengths throughout the apparition; however, the dust color progressively changes from being significantly reddened (37%/1000 Å) at large rH to near-solar at small rH. This change of color with distance implies a significant change in grain sizes or a changing proportion between two or more grain populations. A major outburst was initiated near March 19.9, just prior to the comet's close approach to Earth. The characteristic recovery from the outburst differed among the observed species, with OH recovering most rapidly, essentially returning to its baseline values by March 25. The spatial radial fall-off of OH throughout this interval was consistent with the expected nominal spatial distribution, while CN and C 2 displayed fall-offs consistent with a distributed source, and the dust fall-off was significantly less steep

  4. On-line Tools for Solar Data Compiled at the Debrecen Observatory and Their Extensions with the Greenwich Sunspot Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baranyi, T.; Győri, L.; Ludmány, A.

    2016-08-01

    The primary task of the Debrecen Heliophysical Observatory (DHO) has been the most detailed, reliable, and precise documentation of the solar photospheric activity since 1958. This long-term effort resulted in various solar catalogs based on ground-based and space-borne observations. A series of sunspot databases and on-line tools were compiled at DHO: the Debrecen Photoheliographic Data (DPD, 1974 -), the dataset based on the Michelson Doppler Imager (MDI) of the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) called SOHO/MDI-Debrecen Data (SDD, 1996 - 2010), and the dataset based on the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) of the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) called SDO/HMI-Debrecen Data (HMIDD, 2010 - ). User-friendly web-presentations and on-line tools were developed to visualize and search data. As a last step of the compilation, the revised version of Greenwich Photoheliographic Results (GPR, 1874 - 1976) catalog was converted to DPD format, and a homogeneous sunspot database covering more than 140 years was created. The database of images for the GPR era was completed with the full-disc drawings of the Hungarian historical observatories Ógyalla and Kalocsa (1872 - 1919) and with the polarity drawings of Mount Wilson Observatory. We describe the main characteristics of the available data and on-line tools.

  5. On-line Tools for Solar Data Compiled at the Debrecen Observatory and Their Extensions with the Greenwich Sunspot Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baranyi, T.; Győri, L.; Ludmány, A.

    2016-11-01

    The primary task of the Debrecen Heliophysical Observatory (DHO) has been the most detailed, reliable, and precise documentation of the solar photospheric activity since 1958. This long-term effort resulted in various solar catalogs based on ground-based and space-borne observations. A series of sunspot databases and on-line tools were compiled at DHO: the Debrecen Photoheliographic Data (DPD, 1974 -), the dataset based on the Michelson Doppler Imager (MDI) of the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) called SOHO/MDI-Debrecen Data (SDD, 1996 - 2010), and the dataset based on the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) of the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) called SDO/HMI-Debrecen Data (HMIDD, 2010 - ). User-friendly web-presentations and on-line tools were developed to visualize and search data. As a last step of the compilation, the revised version of Greenwich Photoheliographic Results (GPR, 1874 - 1976) catalog was converted to DPD format, and a homogeneous sunspot database covering more than 140 years was created. The database of images for the GPR era was completed with the full-disc drawings of the Hungarian historical observatories Ógyalla and Kalocsa (1872 - 1919) and with the polarity drawings of Mount Wilson Observatory. We describe the main characteristics of the available data and on-line tools.

  6. Performance assessment of deterministic and probabilistic weather predictions for the short-term optimization of a tropical hydropower reservoir

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mainardi Fan, Fernando; Schwanenberg, Dirk; Alvarado, Rodolfo; Assis dos Reis, Alberto; Naumann, Steffi; Collischonn, Walter

    2016-04-01

    Hydropower is the most important electricity source in Brazil. During recent years, it accounted for 60% to 70% of the total electric power supply. Marginal costs of hydropower are lower than for thermal power plants, therefore, there is a strong economic motivation to maximize its share. On the other hand, hydropower depends on the availability of water, which has a natural variability. Its extremes lead to the risks of power production deficits during droughts and safety issues in the reservoir and downstream river reaches during flood events. One building block of the proper management of hydropower assets is the short-term forecast of reservoir inflows as input for an online, event-based optimization of its release strategy. While deterministic forecasts and optimization schemes are the established techniques for the short-term reservoir management, the use of probabilistic ensemble forecasts and stochastic optimization techniques receives growing attention and a number of researches have shown its benefit. The present work shows one of the first hindcasting and closed-loop control experiments for a multi-purpose hydropower reservoir in a tropical region in Brazil. The case study is the hydropower project (HPP) Três Marias, located in southeast Brazil. The HPP reservoir is operated with two main objectives: (i) hydroelectricity generation and (ii) flood control at Pirapora City located 120 km downstream of the dam. In the experiments, precipitation forecasts based on observed data, deterministic and probabilistic forecasts with 50 ensemble members of the ECMWF are used as forcing of the MGB-IPH hydrological model to generate streamflow forecasts over a period of 2 years. The online optimization depends on a deterministic and multi-stage stochastic version of a model predictive control scheme. Results for the perfect forecasts show the potential benefit of the online optimization and indicate a desired forecast lead time of 30 days. In comparison, the use of

  7. Order Short-Term Memory Capacity Predicts Nonword Reading and Spelling in First and Second Grade

    Science.gov (United States)

    Binamé, Florence; Poncelet, Martine

    2016-01-01

    Recent theories of short-term memory (STM) distinguish between item information, which reflects the temporary activation of long-term representations stored in the language system, and serial-order information, which is encoded in a specific representational system that is independent of the language network. Some studies examining the…

  8. Analysts forecast error : A robust prediction model and its short term trading

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boudt, Kris; de Goeij, Peter; Thewissen, James; Van Campenhout, Geert

    2015-01-01

    We examine the profitability of implementing a short term trading strategy based on predicting the error in analysts' earnings per share forecasts using publicly available information. Since large earnings surprises may lead to extreme values in the forecast error series that disrupt their smooth au

  9. Short-Term Memory Stages in Sign vs. Speech: The Source of the Serial Span Discrepancy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hall, Matthew L.; Bavelier, Daphne

    2011-01-01

    Speakers generally outperform signers when asked to recall a list of unrelated verbal items. This phenomenon is well established, but its source has remained unclear. In this study, we evaluate the relative contribution of the three main processing stages of short-term memory--perception, encoding, and recall--in this effect. The present study…

  10. A Short Term Therapy Approach to Processing Trauma: Art Therapy and Bilateral Stimulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tripp, Tally

    2007-01-01

    This article describes a dynamic, short-term art therapy approach that has been developed for the treatment of trauma related disorders. Using a modified Eye Movement Desensitization and Reprocessing (EMDR) protocol with alternating tactile and auditory bilateral stimulation, associations are rapidly brought to conscious awareness and expressed in…

  11. Clinical picture and risk prediction of short-term mortality in cardiogenic shock

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Harjola, Veli-Pekka; Lassus, Johan; Sionis, Alessandro

    2015-01-01

    AIMS: The aim of this study was to investigate the clinical picture and outcome of cardiogenic shock and to develop a risk prediction score for short-term mortality. METHODS AND RESULTS: The CardShock study was a multicentre, prospective, observational study conducted between 2010 and 2012. Patie...

  12. Short-term tests of estrogenic potential of plant stanols and plant stanol esters

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Turnbull, D.; Frankos, V.H.; Leeman, W.R.; Jonker, D.

    1999-01-01

    To test for potential estrogenic activity of plant stanols and plant stanol esters, two short-term tests were performed. These were the E-screen test, which measures a substance's ability to induce proliferation of estrogen-responsive human breast adenocarcinoma (MCF-7) cells in culture, and an in

  13. Predicting Changes in Cultural Sensitivity among Students of Spanish during Short-Term Study Abroad

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martinsen, Rob

    2011-01-01

    Short-term study abroad programs of less than a semester are becoming increasingly popular among undergraduate students in the United States. However, little research has examined the changes in students' cultural sensitivity through their participation in such programs or what factors may predict growth and improvement in such areas. This study…

  14. Speech Perception and Short-Term Memory Deficits in Persistent Developmental Speech Disorder

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kenney, Mary Kay; Barac-Cikoja, Dragana; Finnegan, Kimberly; Jeffries, Neal; Ludlow, Christy L.

    2006-01-01

    Children with developmental speech disorders may have additional deficits in speech perception and/or short-term memory. To determine whether these are only transient developmental delays that can accompany the disorder in childhood or persist as part of the speech disorder, adults with a persistent familial speech disorder were tested on speech…

  15. Do Children with Phonological Delay Have Phonological Short-Term and Phonological Working Memory Deficits?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Waring, Rebecca; Eadie, Patricia; Liow, Susan Rickard; Dodd, Barbara

    2017-01-01

    While little is known about why children make speech errors, it has been hypothesized that cognitive-linguistic factors may underlie phonological speech sound disorders. This study compared the phonological short-term and phonological working memory abilities (using immediate memory tasks) and receptive vocabulary size of 14 monolingual preschool…

  16. Short-term effects of glucose and sucrose on cognitive performance and mood in elderly people

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zwaluw, N.L. van der; Rest, O. van de; Kessels, R.P.C.; Groot, L.C.P.G.M. de

    2014-01-01

    In this study we determined the short-term effects of a glucose drink and a sucrose drink compared to a placebo on cognitive performance and mood in elderly people with subjective, mild memory complaints using a randomized crossover study design. In total, 43 nondiabetic older adults with

  17. Explaining Semantic Short-Term Memory Deficits: Evidence for the Critical Role of Semantic Control

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoffman, Paul; Jefferies, Elizabeth; Lambon Ralph, Matthew A.

    2011-01-01

    Patients with apparently selective short-term memory (STM) deficits for semantic information have played an important role in developing multi-store theories of STM and challenge the idea that verbal STM is supported by maintaining activation in the language system. We propose that semantic STM deficits are not as selective as previously thought…

  18. Dissociating Contents of Consciousness from Contents of Short-Term Memory

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Thomas Alrik; Ásgeirsson, Árni Gunnar; Staugaard, Camilla Funch;

    2014-01-01

    The contents of consciousness and of short-term memory are hard to disentangle. As it seems intuitive that we represent attended objects in short-term memory and in experience, to many, it also seems intuitive to equate this content. Here we investigated memory resolution for orientation of a pro......The contents of consciousness and of short-term memory are hard to disentangle. As it seems intuitive that we represent attended objects in short-term memory and in experience, to many, it also seems intuitive to equate this content. Here we investigated memory resolution for orientation...... of a probed target in combination with a conscious evaluation of the experienced stimulus using the Perceptual Awareness Scale (PAS; Ramsøy & Overgaard, 2004). Observers were trained to report how they experienced a visual stimulus on a four-point scale representing their experience from “no experience...... in VSTM is correlated with how it is consciously perceived by an observer. However, if we analyze the data across individual PAS scores and set-sizes, a different pattern emerges; across PAS scores we find that people are still affected by set-size in a systematic fashion. Controlling for target...

  19. Relation of increased short-term variability of QT interval to congenital long-QT syndrome

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hinterseer, Martin; Beckmann, Britt-Maria; Thomsen, Morten B

    2009-01-01

    Apart from clinical symptoms the diagnosis and risk stratification in long-QT syndrome (LQTS) is usually based on the surface electrocardiogram. Studies have indicated that not only prolongation of the QT interval but also an increased short-term variability of QT interval (STV(QT)) is a marker f...

  20. A fully adaptive forecasting model for short-term drinking water demand

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bakker, M.; Vreeburg, J.H.G.; Schagen, van K.M.; Rietveld, L.C.

    2013-01-01

    For the optimal control of a water supply system, a short-term water demand forecast is necessary. We developed a model that forecasts the water demand for the next 48 h with 15-min time steps. The model uses measured water demands and static calendar data as single input. Based on this input, the m

  1. Short-Term Duloxetine Administration Affects Neural Correlates of Mood-Congruent Memory

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    I. Tendolkar; G. van Wingen; M. Urner; R.J. Verkes; G. Fernandez

    2011-01-01

    It is unknown how antidepressants reverse mood-congruent memory bias, a cognitive core factor causing and maintaining depression. Using a double-blind, placebo-controlled, cross-over design, we investigated the effect of a short-term treatment (14 days) with the dual reuptake inhibitor duloxetine on

  2. Short-term duloxetine administration affects neural correlates of mood-congruent memory

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tendolkar, I.; Wingen, G.A. van; Urner, M.; Verkes, R.J.; Fernandez, G.S.E.

    2011-01-01

    It is unknown how antidepressants reverse mood-congruent memory bias, a cognitive core factor causing and maintaining depression. Using a double-blind, placebo-controlled, cross-over design, we investigated the effect of a short-term treatment (14 days) with the dual reuptake inhibitor duloxetine on

  3. 13 CFR 303.9 - Requirements for short-term Planning Investments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... Planning Investments. 303.9 Section 303.9 Business Credit and Assistance ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE PLANNING INVESTMENTS AND COMPREHENSIVE ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES § 303.9 Requirements for short-term Planning Investments. (a) In addition to providing support for CEDS...

  4. A Meta-Analysis of the Impact of Short-Term Sleep Deprivation on Cognitive Variables

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lim, Julian; Dinges, David F.

    2010-01-01

    A substantial amount of research has been conducted in an effort to understand the impact of short-term (less than 48 hr) total sleep deprivation (SD) on outcomes in various cognitive domains. Despite this wealth of information, there has been disagreement on how these data should be interpreted, arising in part because the relative magnitude of…

  5. Short-Term Study Abroad: Culture and the Path of Least Resistance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lemmons, Kelly

    2015-01-01

    American universities are decreasing the length of study abroad programs in an effort to send more students abroad. Recent publications find that "short-term" programs struggle to increase participants' cultural understanding. However, these research findings fail to offer an explanation as to why shorter programs are falling short. This…

  6. Short-term effects of carbon monoxide on mortality : An analysis within the APHEA project

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Samoli, Evangelia; Touloumi, Giota; Schwartz, Joel; Anderson, Hugh Ross; Schindler, Christian; Forsberg, Bertil; Vigotti, Maria Angela; Vonk, Judith; Kosnik, Mitja; Skorkovsky, Jiri; Katsouyanni, Klea

    2007-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: We investigated the short-term effects of carbon monoxide on total and cardiovascular mortality in 19 European cities participating in the APHEA-2 (Air Pollution and Health: A European Approach) project. METHODS: We examined the association using hierarchical models implemented in two st

  7. Short-term antioxidative responses of 15 microalgae exposed to excessive irradiance including ultraviolet radiation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Janknegt, Paul J.; De Graaff, C. Marco; Van De Poll, Willem H.; Visser, Ronald J. W.; Rijstenbil, Jan W.; Buma, Anita G. J.

    2009-01-01

    Short-term photosensitivity and oxidative stress responses were compared for three groups of marine microalgae: Antarctic microalgae, temperate diatoms and temperate flagellates. In total, 15 low-light-acclimated species were exposed to simulated surface irradiance including ultraviolet radiation (S

  8. Gender Inequality in Biology Classes in China and Its Effects on Students' Short-Term Outcomes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Ning; Neuhaus, Birgit

    2014-01-01

    This study investigated gender inequality in biology lessons and analysed the effects of the observed inequality on students' short-term knowledge achievement, situational interest and students' evaluation of teaching (SET). Twenty-two biology teachers and 803 7th-grade students from rural and urban classrooms in China participated in the study.…

  9. Impact of Auditory Selective Attention on Verbal Short-Term Memory and Vocabulary Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Majerus, Steve; Heiligenstein, Lucie; Gautherot, Nathalie; Poncelet, Martine; Van der Linden, Martial

    2009-01-01

    This study investigated the role of auditory selective attention capacities as a possible mediator of the well-established association between verbal short-term memory (STM) and vocabulary development. A total of 47 6- and 7-year-olds were administered verbal immediate serial recall and auditory attention tasks. Both task types probed processing…

  10. Binding among Select Episodic Elements Is Altered via Active Short-Term Retrieval

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bridge, Donna J.; Voss, Joel L.

    2015-01-01

    Of the many elements that comprise an episode, are any disproportionately bound to the others? We tested whether active short-term retrieval selectively increases binding. Individual objects from multiobject displays were retrieved after brief delays. Memory was later tested for the other objects. Cueing with actively retrieved objects facilitated…

  11. Language and Short-Term Memory: The Role of Perceptual-Motor Affordance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Macken, Bill; Taylor, John C.; Jones, Dylan M.

    2014-01-01

    The advantage for real words over nonwords in serial recall--the "lexicality effect"--is typically attributed to support for item-level phonology, either via redintegration, whereby partially degraded short-term traces are "cleaned up" via support from long-term representations of the phonological material or via the more…

  12. Cognitive Backward Masking: A Window Into the Formation of a Short-Term Memory Trace

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nieuwenstein, Mark; Wyble, Brad

    2012-01-01

    Working memory consolidation denotes the process that enables sensory information to be stored in short-term memory. What is currently unclear is how long this process takes and whether it continues after a stimulus has been masked. Here, we address these matters by examining whether the consolidati

  13. Recent onmiddellijk geheugenonderzoek bij zwakzinnigen [Investigation of short term memory in mentally retarded subjects

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bunt, A.A.

    1975-01-01

    The aim of this literature review is to get a preliminary answer to the problem of the type of information processing deficit of undifferentiated retardates (with an IQ of about 70). Taking the topic of verbal short-term memory as a framework, it appears that children or adults of a subnormal intell

  14. Short-term statistics of waves measured off Ratnagiri, eastern Arabian Sea

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Amrutha, M.M.; SanilKumar, V.

    coast of India have been analyzed to study the short-term statistics of waves covering full one year period. The study indicates that the values of the observed maximum wave height as a function of duration are not consistent with the theoretical...

  15. Incorporating Short Term Dynamic Psychotherapy Principles into Career Counseling: A Theoretical and Practical Approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nevo, Ofra; Wiseman, Hadas

    2002-01-01

    The Developmental Career Counseling model incorporates the following principles of Short-Term Dynamic Psychotherapy: life-span approach, limited time, working alliance, rapid and early assessment, central focus, active and directive counselor participation, therapeutic flexibility, and termination issues. The model enables career and personal…

  16. The influence of titanium dioxide additive on the short-term DC breakdown strength of polyethylene

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Khalil, M. S; Henk, Peter O; Henriksen, Mogens

    1990-01-01

    The effect of the addition of 1% by weight of titanium dioxide fine particles to low-density polyethylene (LDPE) on the short-term DC breakdown strength of the LDPE was investigated using direct and reverse polarity voltages. The samples used were cylinders of both plain and doped materials...

  17. Astroglial calcium signaling displays short-term plasticity and adjusts synaptic efficacy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeremie eSibille

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Astrocytes are dynamic signaling brain elements able to sense neuronal inputs and to respond by complex calcium signals, which are thought to represent their excitability. Such signaling has been proposed to modulate, or not, neuronal activities ranging from basal synaptic transmission to epileptiform discharges. However, whether calcium signaling in astrocytes exhibits activity-dependent changes and acutely modulates short-term synaptic plasticity is currently unclear. We here show, using dual recordings of astroglial calcium signals and synaptic transmission, that calcium signaling in astrocytes displays, concomitantly to excitatory synapses, short-term plasticity in response to prolonged repetitive and tetanic stimulations of Schaffer collaterals. We also found that acute inhibition of calcium signaling in astrocytes by intracellular calcium chelation rapidly potentiates excitatory synaptic transmission and short-term plasticity of Shaffer collateral CA1 synapses, i.e. paired-pulse facilitation and responses to tetanic and prolonged repetitive stimulation. These data reveal that calcium signaling of astrocytes is plastic and down-regulates basal transmission and short-term plasticity of hippocampal CA1 glutamatergic synapses.

  18. Pearls and pitfalls in short-term mechanical circulatory assist: how to avoid and manage complications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohite, Prashant N; Maunz, Olaf; Simon, Andre R

    2014-10-01

    In today's era, given the worsening risk profiles of patients undergoing cardiac surgery, the increasing number of complex cardiac surgeries, and the increasing number of patients undergoing thoracic organ transplantation, short-term mechanical circulatory assist (MCA) devices are indispensable. MCA devices are capable of supporting heart and lung function and have emerged as potentially lifesaving instruments, but may prove to be as hazardous as helpful due to their inherent tendency toward hemolysis, thromboembolism, and hemorrhage. Although MCA devices are being used regularly at some specialized centers, surgeries involving MCA are not as common as other routine cardiac surgeries, and even though professionals implanting and maintaining short-term MCAs are well acquainted with operating such devices, it is not uncommon to come across complications as a result of minor mistakes committed while dealing with them. Avoiding simple mistakes and taking proper precautions while implanting and maintaining these devices can prevent major catastrophes. We discuss commonly encountered problems and complications during the implantation and maintenance of short-term MCAs and offer reasonable and practical solutions. In addition, crucial issues such as anticoagulation, replacement of the device circuit, and management of the distal perfusion cannula are discussed. Continuous and efficient monitoring of the MCA device and the patient supported on MCA, together with anticipation and avoidance of complications, is key for successful short-term MCA support.

  19. Short-term photoacclimation effects on photoinhibition of phytoplankton in the Drake Passage (Southern Ocean)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Alderkamp, Anne-Carlijn; Garcon, Veronique; de Baar, Hein J. W.; Arrigo, Kevin R.

    We assessed whether short-term photoacclimation responses of natural phytoplankton populations in the Drake Passage (Southern Ocean) were affecting protection from photodamage as cells are mixed up to the surface from depth. To this end, we measured phytoplankton fluorescence characteristics and

  20. Short-term photoacclimation effects on photoinhibition of phytoplankton in the Drake Passage (Southern Ocean)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Alderkamp, A.C.; Garcon, V.; de Baar, H.J.W.; Arrigo, K.R.

    2011-01-01

    We assessed whether short-term photoacclimation responses of natural phytoplankton populations in the Drake Passage (Southern Ocean) were affecting protection from photodamage as cells are mixed up to the surface from depth. To this end, we measured phytoplankton fluorescence characteristics and

  1. Do Children with Phonological Delay Have Phonological Short-Term and Phonological Working Memory Deficits?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Waring, Rebecca; Eadie, Patricia; Liow, Susan Rickard; Dodd, Barbara

    2017-01-01

    While little is known about why children make speech errors, it has been hypothesized that cognitive-linguistic factors may underlie phonological speech sound disorders. This study compared the phonological short-term and phonological working memory abilities (using immediate memory tasks) and receptive vocabulary size of 14 monolingual preschool…

  2. Short-Term Memory for Order but Not for Item Information Is Impaired in Developmental Dyslexia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hachmann, Wibke M.; Bogaerts, Louisa; Szmalec, Arnaud; Woumans, Evy; Duyck, Wouter; Job, Remo

    2014-01-01

    Recent findings suggest that people with dyslexia experience difficulties with the learning of serial order information during the transition from short-to long-term memory (Szmalec et al. "Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, & Cognition" 37(5): 1270-1279, 2011). At the same time, models of short-term memory…

  3. Prosodic Similarity Effects in Short-Term Memory in Developmental Dyslexia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goswami, Usha; Barnes, Lisa; Mead, Natasha; Power, Alan James; Leong, Victoria

    2016-11-01

    Children with developmental dyslexia are characterized by phonological difficulties across languages. Classically, this 'phonological deficit' in dyslexia has been investigated with tasks using single-syllable words. Recently, however, several studies have demonstrated difficulties in prosodic awareness in dyslexia. Potential prosodic effects in short-term memory have not yet been investigated. Here we create a new instrument based on three-syllable words that vary in stress patterns, to investigate whether prosodic similarity (the same prosodic pattern of stressed and unstressed syllables) exerts systematic effects on short-term memory. We study participants with dyslexia and age-matched and younger reading-level-matched typically developing controls. We find that all participants, including dyslexic participants, show prosodic similarity effects in short-term memory. All participants exhibited better retention of words that differed in prosodic structure, although participants with dyslexia recalled fewer words accurately overall compared to age-matched controls. Individual differences in prosodic memory were predicted by earlier vocabulary abilities, by earlier sensitivity to syllable stress and by earlier phonological awareness. To our knowledge, this is the first demonstration of prosodic similarity effects in short-term memory. The implications of a prosodic similarity effect for theories of lexical representation and of dyslexia are discussed. © 2016 The Authors. Dyslexia published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  4. Verbal Short-Term Memory Performance in Pupils with Down Syndrome

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abdelhameed, Hala; Porter, Jill

    2010-01-01

    Research has shown that verbal short-term memory span is shorter in individuals with Down syndrome than in typically developing individuals of equivalent mental age, but little attention has been given to variations within or across groups. Differences in the environment and in particular educational experiences may play a part in the relative…

  5. The Impact of Pointing on the Short-Term Memory (STM) of Heterophonic Homographs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vaknin-Nusbaum, Vered; Miller, Paul

    2014-01-01

    This study entailed two short-term memory (STM) experiments investigating the importance of vowel diacritics for the temporary retention of three distinct Hebrew word list types: heterophonic homographs, non-homographs and homophonic homographs. Eighty university students participated in each experiment, with half of them tested with word lists…

  6. Short-Term Memory Stages in Sign vs. Speech: The Source of the Serial Span Discrepancy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hall, Matthew L.; Bavelier, Daphne

    2011-01-01

    Speakers generally outperform signers when asked to recall a list of unrelated verbal items. This phenomenon is well established, but its source has remained unclear. In this study, we evaluate the relative contribution of the three main processing stages of short-term memory--perception, encoding, and recall--in this effect. The present study…

  7. Temporal Clustering and Sequencing in Short-Term Memory and Episodic Memory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farrell, Simon

    2012-01-01

    A model of short-term memory and episodic memory is presented, with the core assumptions that (a) people parse their continuous experience into episodic clusters and (b) items are clustered together in memory as episodes by binding information within an episode to a common temporal context. Along with the additional assumption that information…

  8. Congenital Amusia: A Short-Term Memory Deficit for Non-Verbal, but Not Verbal Sounds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tillmann, Barbara; Schulze, Katrin; Foxton, Jessica M.

    2009-01-01

    Congenital amusia refers to a lifelong disorder of music processing and is linked to pitch-processing deficits. The present study investigated congenital amusics' short-term memory for tones, musical timbres and words. Sequences of five events (tones, timbres or words) were presented in pairs and participants had to indicate whether the sequences…

  9. Relations among Acute and Chronic Nicotine Administration, Short-Term Memory, and Tactics of Data Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kangas, Brian D.; Branch, Marc N.

    2012-01-01

    Emerging evidence suggests that nicotine may enhance short-term memory. Some of this evidence comes from nonhuman primate research using a procedure called delayed matching-to-sample, wherein the monkey is trained to select a comparison stimulus that matches some physical property of a previously presented sample stimulus. Delays between sample…

  10. Urine collection in the freely moving rat : Reliability for measurement of short-term renal effects

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Haas, M; Kluppel, A.C A; Moolenaar, Frits; Meijer, D.K F; de Jong, P.E; de Zeeuw, D

    1997-01-01

    Studies on short-term renal responses to (pharmacological) intervention require accurate and multiple collection of urine samples. Several invasive techniques have been described for frequent urine collection of the conscious rat, each having their own limitations. No data are available about the fe

  11. Language-Learning Motivation during Short-Term Study Abroad: An Activity Theory Perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allen, Heather Willis

    2010-01-01

    This study investigated the development of language-learning motivation during short-term study abroad (SA) for six intermediate-level students of French. Taking an activity theory perspective, findings demonstrated that one of two orientations motivated participants to study or continue studying French at the college level: linguistic motives or…

  12. Teaching Critical Reflexivity in Short-Term International Field Courses: Practices and Problems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glass, Michael R.

    2015-01-01

    This study critiques the use of critical reflexivity in short-term international field courses. Critical reflexivity's benefits include preparing students for professional research, deepening their learning, and giving the chance to see how student perspectives on fieldwork sites are influenced by their own identity and positionality. I use an…

  13. Short-Term Practice Effects and Brain Hypometabolism: Preliminary Data from an FDG PET Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duff, Kevin; Horn, Kevin P.; Foster, Norman L.; Hoffman, John M.

    2015-01-01

    Practice effects are improvements in cognitive test scores due to repeated exposure to the same tests. Typically viewed as error, short-term practice effects have been shown to provide valuable clinical information about diagnosis, prognosis, and treatment outcomes in older patients with mild cognitive impairments. This study examined short-term practice effects across one week and brain hypometabolism on fluoro-2-deoxyglucose (FDG) positron emission tomography (PET) in 25 older adults (15 intact, 10 Mild Cognitive Impairment). Averaged cerebral brain metabolism on FDG PET was correlated with multiple cognitive scores at baseline in those with Mild Cognitive Impairment, and short-term practice effects accounted for additional variance in these same subjects. The relationship between brain metabolism and cognition (either at baseline or practice effects) was minimal in the intact individuals. Although needing replication in larger samples, short-term practice effects on tests of executive functioning and memory may provide valuable information about biomarkers of Alzheimer’s disease. PMID:25908614

  14. Mixed transcortical aphasia. On relative sparing of phonological short-term store in a case.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trojano, L; Fragassi, N A; Postiglione, A; Grossi, D

    1988-01-01

    A case of Mixed Transcortical Aphasia is reported. The patient showed completely impaired verbal comprehension and speech production, with preservation of automatic speaking and singing; repetition was relatively spared. A detailed study of word and nonword repetition is reported, in order to demonstrate that the patient's residual repetition ability is based on relative sparing of short-term phonological store.

  15. The Impact of Short-Term Study Abroad Programs on L2 Listening Comprehension Skills

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cubillos, Jorge H.; Chieffo, Lisa; Fan, Chunbo

    2008-01-01

    This study investigates the impact of a five-week intermediate Spanish course on the listening comprehension ability of 48 participants in short-term study abroad programs, and compares these groups with 92 peers enrolled in a similar course on the home campus. While both on-campus and study abroad groups experienced similar gains in listening…

  16. Folk music style modelling by recurrent neural networks with long short term memory units

    OpenAIRE

    Sturm, Bob; Santos, João Felipe; Korshunova, Iryna

    2015-01-01

    We demonstrate two generative models created by training a recurrent neural network (RNN) with three hidden layers of long short-term memory (LSTM) units. This extends past work in numerous directions, including training deeper models with nearly 24,000 high-level transcriptions of folk tunes. We discuss our on-going work.

  17. Short-term tests of estrogenic potential of plant stanols and plant stanol esters

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Turnbull, D.; Frankos, V.H.; Leeman, W.R.; Jonker, D.

    1999-01-01

    To test for potential estrogenic activity of plant stanols and plant stanol esters, two short-term tests were performed. These were the E-screen test, which measures a substance's ability to induce proliferation of estrogen-responsive human breast adenocarcinoma (MCF-7) cells in culture, and an in v

  18. Toxicity of selected plant volatiles in microbial and mammalian short-term assays

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stammati, A.; Bonsi, P.; Zucco, F.; Moezelaar, R.; Alakomi, H.L.; von Wright, A.

    1999-01-01

    In this study, several short-term microbial and mammalian in vitro assays were used to evaluate cytotoxicity and genotoxicity of four plant volatiles showing antifungal activity: cinnamaldehyde, carvacrol, thymol and S(+)-carvone. All inhibited viability and proliferation of Hep-2 cells in a dose-de

  19. Short-term outcomes of the prospective multicentre 'Prostate Cancer Research International : Active Surveillance' study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van den Bergh, Roderick C. N.; Vasarainen, Hanna; van der Poel, Henk G.; Vis-Maters, Jenneke J.; Rietbergen, John B.; Pickles, Tom; Cornel, Erik B.; Valdagni, Riccardo; Jaspars, Joris J.; van der Hoeven, John; Staerman, Frederic; Oomens, Eric H. G. M.; Rannikko, Antti; Roemeling, Stijn; Steyerberg, Ewout W.; Roobol, Monique J.; Schroder, Fritz H.; Bangma, Chris H.

    2010-01-01

    OBJECTIVE To evaluate the short-term outcomes of the prospective international Prostate Cancer Research International: Active Surveillance ('PRIAS') study (Dutch Trial Register NTR1718), as active surveillance (AS) for early prostate cancer might provide a partial solution to the current overtreatme

  20. Short-term effects of carbon monoxide on mortality : An analysis within the APHEA project

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Samoli, Evangelia; Touloumi, Giota; Schwartz, Joel; Anderson, Hugh Ross; Schindler, Christian; Forsberg, Bertil; Vigotti, Maria Angela; Vonk, Judith; Kosnik, Mitja; Skorkovsky, Jiri; Katsouyanni, Klea

    2007-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: We investigated the short-term effects of carbon monoxide on total and cardiovascular mortality in 19 European cities participating in the APHEA-2 (Air Pollution and Health: A European Approach) project. METHODS: We examined the association using hierarchical models implemented in two

  1. Conceptual short-term memory (CSTM) supports core claims of Christiansen and Chater.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Potter, Mary C

    2016-01-01

    Rapid serial visual presentation (RSVP) of words or pictured scenes provides evidence for a large-capacity conceptual short-term memory (CSTM) that momentarily provides rich associated material from long-term memory, permitting rapid chunking (Potter 1993; 2009; 2012). In perception of scenes as well as language comprehension, we make use of knowledge that briefly exceeds the supposed limits of working memory.

  2. Effectiveness of short-term psychodynamic group therapy in a public outpatient psychotherapy unit

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Hans Henrik; Mortensen, Erik Lykke; Lotz, Martin

    2010-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Short-term psychodynamic group therapy in heterogeneous patient groups is common in the public Danish psychiatric system but is in need of evaluation. AIM: To investigate improvement in 39-session psychodynamic group therapy using three criteria: 1) effect size (Cohen's d), 2) statist...

  3. Temporal Clustering and Sequencing in Short-Term Memory and Episodic Memory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farrell, Simon

    2012-01-01

    A model of short-term memory and episodic memory is presented, with the core assumptions that (a) people parse their continuous experience into episodic clusters and (b) items are clustered together in memory as episodes by binding information within an episode to a common temporal context. Along with the additional assumption that information…

  4. The Impact of Pointing on the Short-Term Memory (STM) of Heterophonic Homographs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vaknin-Nusbaum, Vered; Miller, Paul

    2014-01-01

    This study entailed two short-term memory (STM) experiments investigating the importance of vowel diacritics for the temporary retention of three distinct Hebrew word list types: heterophonic homographs, non-homographs and homophonic homographs. Eighty university students participated in each experiment, with half of them tested with word lists…

  5. Japanese encephalitis in a Danish short-term traveler to Cambodia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Werlinrud, Anne M; Christiansen, Claus B; Koch, Anders

    2011-01-01

    We present a recent case of Japanese encephalitis in a Danish male traveler to Cambodia, who we believe is the second Danish case within the last 15 years. Although both this and a number of other travel-related cases occurred in short-term travelers, change in vaccination recommendations...

  6. Short-term outcomes of a back school program for chronic low back pain

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hodselmans, AP; Jaegers, SM; Goeken, LN; Göeken, L.N.

    2001-01-01

    Objective: To assess the short-term outcome of a back school program for patients suffering from chronic, nonspecific low back pain (LBP). Design: Quasi-experimental cohort study with a waiting list control group. Setting: Dutch rehabilitation department. Participants: Experimental group (n = 14) pa

  7. Short-term photoacclimation effects on photoinhibition of phytoplankton in the Drake Passage (Southern Ocean)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Alderkamp, Anne-Carlijn; Garcon, Veronique; de Baar, Hein J. W.; Arrigo, Kevin R.

    2011-01-01

    We assessed whether short-term photoacclimation responses of natural phytoplankton populations in the Drake Passage (Southern Ocean) were affecting protection from photodamage as cells are mixed up to the surface from depth. To this end, we measured phytoplankton fluorescence characteristics and the

  8. Creative Activity, Personality, Mental Illness, and Short-Term Mating Success

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beaussart, Melanie L.; Kaufman, Scott Barry; Kaufman, James C.

    2012-01-01

    It has been argued that creativity evolved, at least in part, through sexual selection to attract mates. Recent research lends support to this view and has also demonstrated a link between certain dimensions of schizotypy, creativity, and short-term mating. The current study delves deeper into these relationships by focusing on engagement in…

  9. Business Students' Choice of Short-Term or Long-Term Study Abroad Opportunities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fitzsimmons, Stacey R.; Flanagan, David J.; Wang, Xiaodan

    2013-01-01

    Recent years have seen a proliferation of short-term study abroad opportunities. Although they are both supplementing and replacing semester-long study abroad programs, research has focused primarily on semester (long-term) programs. We draw on the theory of planned behavior (TPB) to explore factors that predict why students choose long-term and…

  10. The Ineluctable Modality of the Audible: Perceptual Determinants of Auditory Verbal Short-Term Memory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maidment, David W.; Macken, William J.

    2012-01-01

    Classical cognitive accounts of verbal short-term memory (STM) invoke an abstract, phonological level of representation which, although it may be derived differently via different modalities, is itself amodal. Key evidence for this view is that serial recall of phonologically similar verbal items (e.g., the letter sounds "b", "c", "g", and "d") is…

  11. Short term memory and working memory in blind versus sighted children

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Withagen, A.; Kappers, A.M.L.; Vervloed, M.P.J.; Knoors, H.; Verhoeven, L.

    2013-01-01

    There is evidence that blind people may strengthen their memory skills to compensate for absence of vision. However, which aspects of memory are involved is open to debate and a developmental perspective is generally lacking. In the present study, we compared the short term memory (STM) and working

  12. Obesity and pregnancy: Mechanisms of short term and long term adverse consequences for mother and child

    Science.gov (United States)

    Obesity is the most common medical condition in women of reproductive age. Obesity during pregnancy has short term and long term adverse consequences for both mother and child. Obesity causes problems with infertility, and in early gestation it causes spontaneous pregnancy loss and congenital anomal...

  13. Metabolic Responses of Chick Embryos to Short-Term Temperature Fluctuations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lourens, A.; Brand, van den H.; Heetkamp, M.J.W.; Meijerhof, R.; Kemp, B.

    2006-01-01

    Two experiments were carried out to study embryonic metabolic responses to short-term temperature fluctuations in order to explore the possibilities of using embryonic metabolic responses as a tool to control the incubation process. In the first experiment, eggshell temperature (ET) in the control g

  14. Verbal Short-Term Memory Performance in Pupils with Down Syndrome

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abdelhameed, Hala; Porter, Jill

    2010-01-01

    Research has shown that verbal short-term memory span is shorter in individuals with Down syndrome than in typically developing individuals of equivalent mental age, but little attention has been given to variations within or across groups. Differences in the environment and in particular educational experiences may play a part in the relative…

  15. Job satisfaction and short-term sickness absence among Dutch workers

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Notenbomer, A; Roelen, CAM; Groothoff, JW

    Background Sickness absence is a considerable economic and social problem. Short-term sickness absence is known to be associated with behavioural attitudes. The correlation between sickness absence and job satisfaction has been studied infrequently and with contradictory results. Aims This study

  16. Metabolic Syndrome and Short-Term Heart Rate Variability in Adults with Intellectual Disabilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Yaw-Wen; Lin, Jin-Ding; Chen, Wei-Liang; Yen, Chia-Feng; Loh, Ching-Hui; Fang, Wen-Hui; Wu, Li-Wei

    2012-01-01

    Metabolic syndrome (MetS) increases the risk of cardiovascular events. Heart rate variability (HRV) represents autonomic functioning, and reduced HRV significantly increases cardiovascular mortality. The aims of the present paper are to assess the prevalence of MetS in adults with intellectual disabilities (ID), the difference in short-term HRV…

  17. Recent onmiddellijk geheugenonderzoek bij zwakzinnigen [Investigation of short term memory in mentally retarded subjects

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bunt, A.A.

    1975-01-01

    The aim of this literature review is to get a preliminary answer to the problem of the type of information processing deficit of undifferentiated retardates (with an IQ of about 70). Taking the topic of verbal short-term memory as a framework, it appears that children or adults of a subnormal

  18. Exposing Students to Repeat Photography: Increasing Cultural Understanding on a Short-Term Study Abroad

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lemmons, Kelly K.; Brannstrom, Christian; Hurd, Danielle

    2014-01-01

    Traditionally, repeat photography has been used to analyze land cover change. This paper describes how repeat photography may be used as a tool to enhance the short-term study abroad experience by facilitating cultural interaction and understanding. We present evidence from two cases and suggest a five-step repeat photography method for educators…

  19. Another look at trading costs and short-term reversal profits

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    W. de Groot (Wilma ); J.J. Huij (Joop); W. Zhou (Weili)

    2012-01-01

    textabstractSeveral studies report that abnormal returns associated with short-term reversal investment strategies diminish once trading costs are taken into account. We show that the impact of trading costs on the strategies' profitability can largely be attributed to excessively trading in small c

  20. Areas of Left Perisylvian Cortex Mediate Auditory-Verbal Short-Term Memory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koenigs, Michael; Acheson, Daniel J.; Barbey, Aron K.; Solomon, Jeffrey; Postle, Bradley R.; Grafman, Jordan

    2011-01-01

    A contentious issue in memory research is whether verbal short-term memory (STM) depends on a neural system specifically dedicated to the temporary maintenance of information, or instead relies on the same brain areas subserving the comprehension and production of language. In this study, we examined a large sample of adults with acquired brain…

  1. The Effect of Alcohol Ingestion on Short Term Memory and Attention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    sequence of four different symbols before alcohol ingestion , after alcohol ingestion and again after alcohol with motivation. The purpose of the experiment...modes, while motivation had no effect in overcoming this Short Term Memory degradation due to alcohol ingestion . (Author)

  2. Short-Term Change Detection in Wetlands Using Sentinel-1 Time Series

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Muro, Javier; Canty, Morton; Conradsen, Knut

    2016-01-01

    as by agricultural practices, whether they are sudden changes, as well as gradual. S1-omnibus is capable of detecting a wider array of short-term changes than when using consecutive pairs of Sentinel-1 images. When compared to the Landsat-based change detection method, both show an overall good agreement, although...

  3. Creative Activity, Personality, Mental Illness, and Short-Term Mating Success

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beaussart, Melanie L.; Kaufman, Scott Barry; Kaufman, James C.

    2012-01-01

    It has been argued that creativity evolved, at least in part, through sexual selection to attract mates. Recent research lends support to this view and has also demonstrated a link between certain dimensions of schizotypy, creativity, and short-term mating. The current study delves deeper into these relationships by focusing on engagement in…

  4. Dialogue Journals in Short-Term Study Abroad: "Today I Wrote My Mind"

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dressler, Roswita; Tweedie, M. Gregory

    2016-01-01

    Short-term study abroad programs are growing in popularity, and educators and researchers are exploring effective tools to enhance the learning and cultural experiences of students in these programs. Dialogue journals, writing journals in which students respond to instructor prompts and in turn initiate topics for further written discussion, are a…

  5. Monkeys Rely on Recency of Stimulus Repetition When Solving Short-Term Memory Tasks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wittig, John H., Jr.; Richmond, Barry J.

    2014-01-01

    Seven monkeys performed variants of two short-term memory tasks that others have used to differentiate between selective and nonselective memory mechanisms. The first task was to view a list of sequentially presented images and identify whether a test matched any image from the list, but not a distractor from a preceding list. Performance was best…

  6. Some effects of cognitive similarity on proactive and retriactive interference in short-term memory

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bunt, A.A.; Sanders, A.F.

    1972-01-01

    An experiment is reported on the effects of cognitive similarity on proactive and retroactive interference (PI, RI) in short term memory. To avoid confounding between cognitive and acoustic similarity, the materials - i.e. words and digits - were matched with respect to vowel pattern. Effects of

  7. The Ineluctable Modality of the Audible: Perceptual Determinants of Auditory Verbal Short-Term Memory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maidment, David W.; Macken, William J.

    2012-01-01

    Classical cognitive accounts of verbal short-term memory (STM) invoke an abstract, phonological level of representation which, although it may be derived differently via different modalities, is itself amodal. Key evidence for this view is that serial recall of phonologically similar verbal items (e.g., the letter sounds "b",…

  8. Effects of age, gender, and stimulus presentation period on visual short-term memory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kunimi, Mitsunobu

    2016-01-01

    This study focused on age-related changes in visual short-term memory using visual stimuli that did not allow verbal encoding. Experiment 1 examined the effects of age and the length of the stimulus presentation period on visual short-term memory function. Experiment 2 examined the effects of age, gender, and the length of the stimulus presentation period on visual short-term memory function. The worst memory performance and the largest performance difference between the age groups were observed in the shortest stimulus presentation period conditions. The performance difference between the age groups became smaller as the stimulus presentation period became longer; however, it did not completely disappear. Although gender did not have a significant effect on d' regardless of the presentation period in the young group, a significant gender-based difference was observed for stimulus presentation periods of 500 ms and 1,000 ms in the older group. This study indicates that the decline in visual short-term memory observed in the older group is due to the interaction of several factors.

  9. The Development of Visual Short-Term Memory for Multifeature Items during Middle childhood

    Science.gov (United States)

    Riggs, Kevin J.; Simpson, Andrew; Potts, Thomas

    2011-01-01

    Visual short-term memory (VSTM) research suggests that the adult capacity is limited to three or four multifeature object representations. Despite evidence supporting a developmental increase in capacity, it remains unclear what the unit of capacity is in children. The current study employed the change detection paradigm to investigate both the…

  10. Visual Short-Term Memory: Is Capacity Dependent on Complexity or Familiarity?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Thomas Alrik; Granlund, Rabia Line; Wiechmann, Maria

    Several recent studies have explored the nature and limits of visual short-term memory (VSTM) (e.g. Luck & Vogel, 1997). A general VSTM capacity limit of about 3 to 4 objects has been found, confirming results from earlier studies (e.g. Cattell, 1885; Sperling, 1960). However, Alvarez and Cavanagh...

  11. Monkeys Rely on Recency of Stimulus Repetition When Solving Short-Term Memory Tasks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wittig, John H., Jr.; Richmond, Barry J.

    2014-01-01

    Seven monkeys performed variants of two short-term memory tasks that others have used to differentiate between selective and nonselective memory mechanisms. The first task was to view a list of sequentially presented images and identify whether a test matched any image from the list, but not a distractor from a preceding list. Performance was best…

  12. Orienting Attention within Visual Short-Term Memory: Development and Mechanisms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shimi, Andria; Nobre, Anna C.; Astle, Duncan; Scerif, Gaia

    2014-01-01

    How does developing attentional control operate within visual short-term memory (VSTM)? Seven-year-olds, 11-year-olds, and adults (total n = 205) were asked to report whether probe items were part of preceding visual arrays. In Experiment 1, central or peripheral cues oriented attention to the location of to-be-probed items either prior to…

  13. Visual Short-Term Memory for Complex Objects in 6- and 8-Month-Old Infants

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kwon, Mee-Kyoung; Luck, Steven J.; Oakes, Lisa M.

    2014-01-01

    Infants' visual short-term memory (VSTM) for simple objects undergoes dramatic development: Six-month-old infants can store in VSTM information about only a simple object presented in isolation, whereas 8-month-old infants can store information about simple objects presented in multiple-item arrays. This study extended this work to examine…

  14. Saccadic Eye Movements Impose a Natural Bottleneck on Visual Short-Term Memory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ohl, Sven; Rolfs, Martin

    2017-01-01

    Visual short-term memory (VSTM) is a crucial repository of information when events unfold rapidly before our eyes, yet it maintains only a fraction of the sensory information encoded by the visual system. Here, we tested the hypothesis that saccadic eye movements provide a natural bottleneck for the transition of fragile content in sensory memory…

  15. Working Memory and Short-Term Memory Abilities in Accomplished Multilinguals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biedron, Adriana; Szczepaniak, Anna

    2012-01-01

    The role of short-term memory and working memory in accomplished multilinguals was investigated. Twenty-eight accomplished multilinguals were compared to 36 mainstream philology students. The following instruments were used in the study: three memory subtests of the Wechsler Intelligence Scale (Digit Span, Digit-Symbol Coding, and Arithmetic,…

  16. Phonological and Sensory Short-Term Memory Are Correlates and Both Affected in Developmental Dyslexia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laasonen, Marja; Virsu, Veijo; Oinonen, Suvi; Sandbacka, Mirja; Salakari, Anita; Service, Elisabet

    2012-01-01

    We investigated whether poor short-term memory (STM) in developmental dyslexia affects the processing of sensory stimulus sequences in addition to phonological material. STM for brief binary non-verbal stimuli (light flashes, tone bursts, finger touches, and their crossmodal combinations) was studied in 20 Finnish adults with dyslexia and 24…

  17. Two Distinct Origins of Long-Term Learning Effects in Verbal Short-Term Memory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Majerus, Steve; Perez, Trecy Martinez; Oberauer, Klaus

    2012-01-01

    Verbal short-term memory (STM) is highly sensitive to learning effects: digit sequences or nonword sequences which have been rendered more familiar via repeated exposure are recalled more accurately. In this study we show that sublist-level, incidental learning of item co-occurrence regularities affects immediate serial recall of words and…

  18. Areas of Left Perisylvian Cortex Mediate Auditory-Verbal Short-Term Memory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koenigs, Michael; Acheson, Daniel J.; Barbey, Aron K.; Solomon, Jeffrey; Postle, Bradley R.; Grafman, Jordan

    2011-01-01

    A contentious issue in memory research is whether verbal short-term memory (STM) depends on a neural system specifically dedicated to the temporary maintenance of information, or instead relies on the same brain areas subserving the comprehension and production of language. In this study, we examined a large sample of adults with acquired brain…

  19. Splitting Attention across the Two Visual Fields in Visual Short-Term Memory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delvenne, Jean-Francois; Holt, Jessica L.

    2012-01-01

    Humans have the ability to attentionally select the most relevant visual information from their extrapersonal world and to retain it in a temporary buffer, known as visual short-term memory (VSTM). Research suggests that at least two non-contiguous items can be selected simultaneously when they are distributed across the two visual hemifields. In…

  20. Visual Short-Term Memory Capacity for Simple and Complex Objects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luria, Roy; Sessa, Paola; Gotler, Alex; Jolicoeur, Pierre; Dell'Acqua, Roberto

    2010-01-01

    Does the capacity of visual short-term memory (VSTM) depend on the complexity of the objects represented in memory? Although some previous findings indicated lower capacity for more complex stimuli, other results suggest that complexity effects arise during retrieval (due to errors in the comparison process with what is in memory) that is not…

  1. The relationship between vocabulary and short-term memory measures in monolingual and bilingual speakers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaushanskaya, Margarita; Blumenfeld, Henrike K.; Marian, Viorica

    2012-01-01

    Previous studies have indicated that bilingualism may influence the efficiency of lexical access in adults. The goals of this research were (1) to compare bilingual and monolingual adults on their native-language vocabulary performance, and (2) to examine the relationship between short-term memory skills and vocabulary performance in monolinguals and bilinguals. In Experiment 1, English-speaking monolingual adults and simultaneous English–Spanish bilingual adults were administered measures of receptive English vocabulary and of phonological short-term memory. In Experiment 2, monolingual adults were compared to sequential English–Spanish bilinguals, and were administered the same measures as in Experiment 1, as well as a measure of expressive English vocabulary. Analyses revealed comparable levels of performance on the vocabulary and the short-term memory measures in the monolingual and the bilingual groups across both experiments. There was a stronger effect of digit-span in the bilingual group than in the monolingual group, with high-span bilinguals outperforming low-span bilinguals on vocabulary measures. Findings indicate that bilingual speakers may rely on short-term memory resources to support word retrieval in their native language more than monolingual speakers. PMID:22518091

  2. What's Magic about Magic Numbers? Chunking and Data Compression in Short-Term Memory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mathy, Fabien; Feldman, Jacob

    2012-01-01

    Short term memory is famously limited in capacity to Miller's (1956) magic number 7 plus or minus 2--or, in many more recent studies, about 4 plus or minus 1 "chunks" of information. But the definition of "chunk" in this context has never been clear, referring only to a set of items that are treated collectively as a single unit. We propose a new…

  3. Order Short-Term Memory Capacity Predicts Nonword Reading and Spelling in First and Second Grade

    Science.gov (United States)

    Binamé, Florence; Poncelet, Martine

    2016-01-01

    Recent theories of short-term memory (STM) distinguish between item information, which reflects the temporary activation of long-term representations stored in the language system, and serial-order information, which is encoded in a specific representational system that is independent of the language network. Some studies examining the…

  4. A Probabilistic Clustering Theory of the Organization of Visual Short-Term Memory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orhan, A. Emin; Jacobs, Robert A.

    2013-01-01

    Experimental evidence suggests that the content of a memory for even a simple display encoded in visual short-term memory (VSTM) can be very complex. VSTM uses organizational processes that make the representation of an item dependent on the feature values of all displayed items as well as on these items' representations. Here, we develop a…

  5. Relations among Acute and Chronic Nicotine Administration, Short-Term Memory, and Tactics of Data Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kangas, Brian D.; Branch, Marc N.

    2012-01-01

    Emerging evidence suggests that nicotine may enhance short-term memory. Some of this evidence comes from nonhuman primate research using a procedure called delayed matching-to-sample, wherein the monkey is trained to select a comparison stimulus that matches some physical property of a previously presented sample stimulus. Delays between sample…

  6. The Influence of Auditory Short-Term Memory on Behavior Problem Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Low, Justin; Keith, Timothy

    2015-01-01

    The purpose of this research was to determine the influence of two subcomponents of auditory short-term memory on the developmental trajectories of behavior problems. The sample included 7,058 children from the NLSY79--Children and Young Adult survey between the ages 5 and 14 years. Results suggested that anxious/depressed behavior increases…

  7. Manipulations of attention dissociate fragile visual short-term memory from visual working memory

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vandenbroucke, A.R.E.; Sligte, I.G.; Lamme, V.A.F.

    2011-01-01

    People often rely on information that is no longer in view, but maintained in visual short-term memory (VSTM). Traditionally, VSTM is thought to operate on either a short time-scale with high capacity - iconic memory - or a long time scale with small capacity - visual working memory. Recent research

  8. Phonological Short-Term Memory, Working Memory and Foreign Language Performance in Intensive Language Learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kormos, Judit; Safar, Anna

    2008-01-01

    In our research we addressed the question what the relationship is between phonological short-term and working memory capacity and performance in an end-of-year reading, writing, listening, speaking and use of English test. The participants of our study were 121 secondary school students aged 15-16 in the first intensive language training year of…

  9. Short term memory and working memory in blind versus sighted children

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Withagen, A.; Kappers, A.M.L.; Vervloed, M.P.J.; Knoors, H.; Verhoeven, L.

    2013-01-01

    There is evidence that blind people may strengthen their memory skills to compensate for absence of vision. However, which aspects of memory are involved is open to debate and a developmental perspective is generally lacking. In the present study, we compared the short term memory (STM) and working

  10. Cognitive Backward Masking: A Window Into the Formation of a Short-Term Memory Trace

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nieuwenstein, Mark; Wyble, Brad

    2012-01-01

    Working memory consolidation denotes the process that enables sensory information to be stored in short-term memory. What is currently unclear is how long this process takes and whether it continues after a stimulus has been masked. Here, we address these matters by examining whether the

  11. A Meta-Analysis of the Impact of Short-Term Sleep Deprivation on Cognitive Variables

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lim, Julian; Dinges, David F.

    2010-01-01

    A substantial amount of research has been conducted in an effort to understand the impact of short-term (less than 48 hr) total sleep deprivation (SD) on outcomes in various cognitive domains. Despite this wealth of information, there has been disagreement on how these data should be interpreted, arising in part because the relative magnitude of…

  12. Antenatal corticosteroid therapy : short-term effects on fetal behaviour and haemodynamics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mulder, E. J. H.; de Heus, R.; Visser, G. H. A.

    2009-01-01

    Antenatal corticosteroid therapy to enhance fetal lung maturity in threatened preterm delivery has a number of non-pulmonary side-effects, both beneficial and undesirable. This review focuses on the short-term (transient) effects of betamethasone and dexamethasone on aspects of fetal circulation and

  13. Experimentation Using Short-Term Spectral Features for Secure Mobile Internet Voting Authentication

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Surendra Thakur

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available We propose a secure mobile Internet voting architecture based on the Sensus reference architecture and report the experiments carried out using short-term spectral features for realizing the voice biometric based authentication module of the architecture being proposed. The short-term spectral features investigated are Mel-Frequency Cepstral Coefficients (MFCCs, Mel-Frequency Discrete Wavelet Coefficients (MFDWC, Linear Predictive Cepstral Coefficients (LPCC, and Spectral Histogram of Oriented Gradients (SHOGs. The MFCC, MFDWC, and LPCC usually have higher dimensions that oftentimes lead to high computational complexity of the pattern matching algorithms in automatic speaker recognition systems. In this study, higher dimensions of each of the short-term features were reduced to an 81-element feature vector per Speaker using Histogram of Oriented Gradients (HOG algorithm while neural network ensemble was utilized as the pattern matching algorithm. Out of the four short-term spectral features investigated, the LPCC-HOG gave the best statistical results with R statistic of 0.9127 and mean square error of 0.0407. These compact LPCC-HOG features are highly promising for implementing the authentication module of the secure mobile Internet voting architecture we are proposing in this paper.

  14. Short-term variability of mineral dust, metals and carbon emission from road dust resuspension

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Amato, F.; Schaap, M.; Denier van der Gon, H.A.C.; Pandolfi, M.; Alastuey, A.; Keuken, M.; Querol, X.

    2013-01-01

    Particulate matter (PM) pollution in cities has severe impact on morbidity and mortality of their population. In these cities, road dust resuspension contributes largely to PM and airborne heavy metals concentrations. However, the short-term variation of emission through resuspension is not well

  15. Adipose gene expression response of lean and obese mice to short-term dietary restriction.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schothorst, Evert M van; Keijer, Jaap; Pennings, Jeroen L A; Opperhuizen, Antoon; Brom, Charissa E van den; Kohl, Thomas; Franssen-van Hal, Nicole L W; Hoebee, Barbara

    2006-01-01

    Overweight and obesity lead to higher morbidity risks, which are alleviated even by mild weight loss. To gain insight in the molecular effects of weight loss in adipose tissue, we analyzed the effects of short-term dietary restriction (DR) on mice fed a low-fat diet (lean mice) or a high-fat diet (o

  16. Adipose gene expression response of lean and obese mice to short-term dietary restriction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schothorst, van E.M.; Keijer, J.; Pennings, J.L.A.; Opperhuizen, A.; Brom, van den C.E.; Kohl, T.; Franssen-Hal, van N.L.W.; Hoebee, B.

    2006-01-01

    Overweight and obesity lead to higher morbidity risks, which are alleviated even by mild weight loss. To gain insight in the molecular effects of weight loss in adipose tissue, we analyzed the effects of short-term dietary restriction (DR) on mice fed a low-fat diet (lean mice) or a high-fat diet (o

  17. Laparoscopic and open subtotal colectomies have similar short-term results

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hoogenboom, Froukje J.; Bosker, Robbert J. I.; Groen, Henk; Meijerink, Wilhelmus J. H. J.; Lamme, Bas; Pierie, Jean Pierre E. N.

    2013-01-01

    Background: Laparoscopic subtotal colectomy (STC) is a complex procedure. It is possible that short-term benefits for segmental resections cannot be attributed to this complex procedure. This study aims to assess differences in shortterm results for laparoscopic versus open STC during a 15year

  18. Splitting Attention across the Two Visual Fields in Visual Short-Term Memory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delvenne, Jean-Francois; Holt, Jessica L.

    2012-01-01

    Humans have the ability to attentionally select the most relevant visual information from their extrapersonal world and to retain it in a temporary buffer, known as visual short-term memory (VSTM). Research suggests that at least two non-contiguous items can be selected simultaneously when they are distributed across the two visual hemifields. In…

  19. Delft Cluster Railway transition zones & Switches: Factual report short-term measurement 2009

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hölscher, P.; Hartman, A.D.

    2009-01-01

    For the Delft Cluster 'Railway transition zones and switches' project, extensive measurements are made. The measurements are divided into three types. The short-term measurement of may 2009 is the subject of this report. The long-term and soil investigation measurements are described in other report

  20. Mechanisms of short-term plasticity at neuromuscular active zones of Drosophila

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hallermann, Stefan; Heckmann, Manfred; Kittel, Robert J.

    2010-01-01

    During short bursts of neuronal activity, changes in the efficacy of neurotransmitter release are governed primarily by two counteracting processes: (1) Ca2+-dependent elevations of vesicle release probability and (2) depletion of synaptic vesicles. The dynamic interplay of both processes contributes to the expression of activity-dependent synaptic plasticity. Here, we exploited various facets of short-term plasticity at the Drosophila neuromuscular junction to dissect these two processes. This enabled us to rigorously analyze different models of synaptic vesicle pools in terms of their size and mobilization properties. Independent of the specific model, we estimate ∼300 readily releasable vesicles with an average release probability of ∼50% in 1 mM extracellular calcium (∼5% in 0.4 mM extracellular calcium) under resting conditions. The models also helped interpreting the altered short-term plasticity of the previously reported mutant of the active zone component Bruchpilot (BRP). Finally, our results were independently confirmed through fluctuation analysis. Our data reveal that the altered short-term plasticity observed in BRP mutants cannot be accounted for by delocalized Ca2+ channels alone and thus suggest an additional role of BRP in short-term plasticity. PMID:20811513