WorldWideScience

Sample records for oil supply security

  1. Oil supply security -- Emergency response of IEA countries 2007

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2007-11-29

    When Hurricane Katrina hit the Gulf of Mexico in 2005, the region's oil production and refining infrastructure was devastated and world energy markets were disrupted. The International Energy Agency decided in a matter of days to bring 60 million barrels of additional oil to the market. The emergency response system worked - the collective action helped to stabilise global markets. Since its founding in 1974, oil supply security has been a core mission of the IEA and the Agency has improved its mechanisms to respond to short-term oil supply disruptions. Nevertheless, numerous factors will continue to test the delicate balance of supply and demand. Oil demand growth will continue to accelerate in Asia; oil will be increasingly produced by a shrinking number of countries; and capacities in the supply chain will need to expand. These are just a few of the challenges facing an already tight market. What are the emergency response systems of IEA countries? How are their emergency structures organised? How prepared is the IEA to deal with an oil supply disruption? This publication addresses these questions. It presents another cycle of rigorous reviews of the emergency response mechanisms of IEA member countries. The goal of these reviews is to ensure that the IEA stays ready to respond effectively to oil supply disruptions. This publication also includes overviews of how China, India and countries of Southeast Asia are progressing with domestic policies to improve oil supply security, based on emergency stocks.

  2. Oil supply security -- Emergency response of IEA countries 2007

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2007-11-29

    When Hurricane Katrina hit the Gulf of Mexico in 2005, the region's oil production and refining infrastructure was devastated and world energy markets were disrupted. The International Energy Agency decided in a matter of days to bring 60 million barrels of additional oil to the market. The emergency response system worked - the collective action helped to stabilise global markets. Since its founding in 1974, oil supply security has been a core mission of the IEA and the Agency has improved its mechanisms to respond to short-term oil supply disruptions. Nevertheless, numerous factors will continue to test the delicate balance of supply and demand. Oil demand growth will continue to accelerate in Asia; oil will be increasingly produced by a shrinking number of countries; and capacities in the supply chain will need to expand. These are just a few of the challenges facing an already tight market. What are the emergency response systems of IEA countries? How are their emergency structures organised? How prepared is the IEA to deal with an oil supply disruption? This publication addresses these questions. It presents another cycle of rigorous reviews of the emergency response mechanisms of IEA member countries. The goal of these reviews is to ensure that the IEA stays ready to respond effectively to oil supply disruptions. This publication also includes overviews of how China, India and countries of Southeast Asia are progressing with domestic policies to improve oil supply security, based on emergency stocks.

  3. Energy security of supply and oil shale resources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Elkarmi, F.

    1994-01-01

    Jordan must utilize its huge oil shale deposits in order to increase domestic security of energy supply and benefit financially. Utilization processes will require large scale financial expenditures, beyond Jordan's means. Therefore, the BOT scheme seems to be the perfects solution. Since oil shale retorting technology will produce oil which can be traded to generate valuable foreign exchange revenues, it is more advantageous than direct burning technology which produces electricity limited to local consumption regardless of economics. Under the BOT scheme, the incentive, for the foreign sponsor is to return his investment via quantities of oil; for Jordan the aim is to meet local energy demand and acquire the plant infrastructure in the long term. Recent events in the more traditional oil fields of the region make such a project in Jordan more attractive. (author) 3 tabs. 2 figs

  4. Oil supply security: the emergency response potential of IEA countries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1995-01-01

    This work deals with the oil supply security and more particularly with the emergency response potential of International Energy Agency (IEA) countries. The first part describes the changing pattern of IEA emergency response requirements. It begins with the experience from the past, then gives the energy outlook to 2010 and ends with the emergency response policy issues for the future. The second part is an overview on the IEA emergency response potential which includes the organisation, the emergency reserves, the demand restraint and the other response mechanisms. The third part gives the response potential of individual IEA countries. The last part deals with IEA emergency response in practice and more particularly with the gulf crisis of 1990-1991. It includes the initial problems raised by the gulf crisis, the adjustment and preparation and the onset of military action with the IEA response.(O.L.). 7 figs., 85 tabs

  5. Assessment of energy security in China based on ecological network analysis: A perspective from the security of crude oil supply

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lu, Weiwei; Su, Meirong; Zhang, Yan; Yang, Zhifeng; Chen, Bin; Liu, Gengyuan

    2014-01-01

    Energy security usually considers both the stability of energy supply and security of energy use and it is receiving increasing attention globally. Considering the strategic importance and sensitivity to international change of the crude oil supply, we decided to examine China’s energy security. An original network model was established based on ecological network analysis to holistically evaluate the security of the crude oil supply in China. Using this model, we found that the security of the crude oil supply in China generally increased from 2001 to 2010. The contribution of different compartments in the network to the overall energy security resembled a pyramid structure, with supply sources at the bottom, the consumption sector at the top, and the refining and transfer sectors in the middle. North and South America made the largest contribution to the security of the crude oil supply in China. We provide suggestions to improve the security of the crude oil supply in China based on our results and further scenario analysis. The original network model provides a new perspective for energy security assessment, which can be used as a baseline to develop other models and policy. - Highlights: • Ecological network analysis (ENA) is introduced into energy security assessment. • A model of crude oil supply network in China is established based on ENA. • A pyramid structure of the contributions of different compartments to energy security was found. • Suggestions for forming a stable network are given to improve energy security

  6. China’s oil security from the supply chain perspective: A review

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhao, Chunfu; Chen, Bin

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • The development phase of China’s oil industry is detailed. • Risk to oil industry in China is identified along the supply chain. • Policy aimed at improving oil security is examined. - Abstract: Oil security has become a major issue in China. This paper analyzes China’s oil security from the supply chain perspective, as the country faces challenges from an increasing reliance on imported oil, a fast-growing economy, the Malacca dilemma, and volatile international oil prices. To clarify the issue of oil security, we first review the development phase of China’s oil industry and previous research related to its energy security. Then a framework from the supply chain perspective is constructed to identify the current risk from three aspects: energy flow, financial and environmental. Finally, policies aimed at improving the country’s energy security are examined and potential problems presented. From this analysis, we conclude that the potential risk arising from China’s oil system is inherently interconnected. There is still great potential for the country to improve oil security by strengthening its strategic oil reserves, improving energy efficiency, and developing its domestic oil tanker fleet

  7. False security: the effects of long-term oil supply disruptions in a slack oil market

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kah, M; Kruvant, W J

    1984-01-01

    The authors contention that the US should continue to be concerned about energy emergency preparedness, in the event of a long-term disruption of oil supplies, despite current slack economic conditions on the international market is outlined. One quarter of the world's total supply still comes from politically volatile areas of North Africa and the Middle East, and although oil imports have fallen off, the US is still vulnerable.

  8. Security concerns in the Middle East for oil supply: Problems and solutions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sen, Samil [Istanbul Univ., Dept. of Geology, Istanbul (Turkey); Babali, Tuncay [Houston Univ., Dept. of Political Science, Houston, TX (United States)

    2007-03-15

    Comprising 65-70% of the world's oil reserves, the Gulf States (Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, UAE and Qatar) are key countries for the solutions to the energy supply matters of the world. Free flow of oil to the world markets from Gulf region is an indispensable part of the major security issues. The Middle East has had mainly security related problems such as Arab-Israeli wars and conflicts, Arab-Iranian war and conflicts, Arab-Arab war and conflicts, US-Gulf wars and conflicts and more recently radicalism and terrorist attacks. Energy supply security requires the enhancement of the peace and cooperation between countries instead of competition. Preventive policy approaches are more suitable to address energy supply matters. Preventive strategy might be possible with the active participation of NATO within the 'out of area' type operations to the Middle East and quite possibly indirectly to the Asia-Pacific regions. Religious and ethnic radicalism and terrorist attacks has also direct effects over oil supply security matters. (Author)

  9. Security concerns in the Middle East for oil supply: Problems and solutions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sen, Samil; Babali, Tuncay

    2007-01-01

    Comprising 65-70% of the world's oil reserves, the Gulf States (Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, UAE and Qatar) are key countries for the solutions to the energy supply matters of the world. Free flow of oil to the world markets from Gulf region is an indispensable part of the major security issues. The Middle East has had mainly security related problems such as Arab-Israeli wars and conflicts, Arab-Iranian war and conflicts, Arab-Arab war and conflicts, US-Gulf wars and conflicts and more recently radicalism and terrorist attacks. Energy supply security requires the enhancement of the peace and cooperation between countries instead of competition. Preventive policy approaches are more suitable to address energy supply matters. Preventive strategy might be possible with the active participation of NATO within the 'out of area' type operations to the Middle East and quite possibly indirectly to the Asia-Pacific regions. Religious and ethnic radicalism and terrorist attacks has also direct effects over oil supply security matters

  10. Eastern Canadian crude oil supply and its implications for regional energy security

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hughes, Larry

    2010-01-01

    Canada has been blessed with immense energy resources; however, their distribution is not uniform. One such example is crude oil, which is found primarily in western Canada. Eastern Canada, consisting of the six eastern-most provinces (Newfoundland and Labrador, New Brunswick, Nova Scotia, Ontario, Prince Edward Island, and Quebec), produce limited quantities of crude oil, most of which is exported to the United States. Ideally, western Canadian crude oil would meet the demands of eastern Canada; however, the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and the absence of oil pipelines means that eastern Canada increasingly relies on supplies of crude oil from a small number of oil exporting countries, many with declining production. This paper examines crude oil production, supply, and its refining in eastern Canada. It shows that crude production in the region has reached its peak and that increasing global competition for crude oil will affect energy security in eastern Canada, either through price increases or supply shortages, or both. (author)

  11. Energy Security Analysis: The case of constrained oil supply for Ireland

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Glynn, James; Chiodi, Alessandro; Gargiulo, Maurizio; Deane, J.P.; Bazilian, Morgan; Gallachóir, Brian Ó

    2014-01-01

    Ireland imports 88% of its energy requirements. Oil makes up 59% of total final energy consumption (TFC). Import dependency, low fuel diversity and volatile prices leave Ireland vulnerable in terms of energy security. This work models energy security scenarios for Ireland using long term macroeconomic forecasts to 2050, with oil production and price scenarios from the International Monetary Fund, within the Irish TIMES energy systems model. The analysis focuses on developing a least cost optimum energy system for Ireland under scenarios of constrained oil supply (0.8% annual import growth, and –2% annual import decline) and subsequent sustained long term price shocks to oil and gas imports. The results point to gas becoming the dominant fuel source for Ireland, at 54% total final energy consumption in 2020, supplanting oil from reference projections of 57% to 10.8% TFC. In 2012, the cost of net oil imports stood at €3.6 billion (2.26% GDP). The modelled high oil and gas price scenarios show an additional annual cost in comparison to a reference of between €2.9bn and €7.5bn by 2020 (1.9–4.9% of GDP) to choose to develop a least cost energy system. Investment and ramifications for energy security are discussed. - Highlights: • We investigate energy security within a techno-economic model of Ireland to 2050. • We impose scenarios constraints of volume and price derived from IMF forecasting. • Continued high oil prices lead to natural gas supplanting oil at 54% TFC by 2020. • Declining oil production induces additional energy system costs of 7.9% GDP by 2020. • High oil and gas prices are likely to strain existing Irish gas import infrastructure

  12. Measuring energy security: Trends in the diversification of oil and natural gas supplies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cohen, Gail; Joutz, Frederick; Loungani, Prakash

    2011-01-01

    We present evidence on one facet of energy security in OECD economies-the extent of diversification in sources of oil and natural gas supplies. Viewed from the perspective of the energy-importing countries as a whole, there has not been much change in diversification in oil supplies over the last decade, but diversification in sources of natural gas supplies has increased steadily. We document the considerable cross-country heterogeneity in the extent of diversification. We also show how the extent of diversification changes if account is taken of the political risk attached to suppliers; the size of the importing country; and transportation risk. - Highlights: → Global diversification is constant but large differences exist among countries. → Political risk and distance have large impacts on diversity measures. → Size has little impact on diversity measures. → France, US, and UK show low vulnerability for both fuels. → Smaller European countries show high vulnerability for both fuels.

  13. Korean public's preference for supply security of oil and gas and the impact of protest bidders

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Jihyo; Kim, Jinsoo; Kim, Yoon Kyung

    2016-01-01

    The Korean governmental support for supply security of oil and gas via overseas exploration and production (E&P) projects are publicly criticized because of some poor projects lacking of economic feasibility, even though it should be expanded from a long-term perspective. Applying the contingent valuation, this study investigates the Korean public's preferences for governmental support for overseas oil and gas E&P projects. The result shows that the governmental support for overseas E&P projects rather decreases public utility. The primary reason behind this utility decrease is that some respondents protested to bid because of their resistance toward tax increase without guaranteeing the efficient government support. This result implies that simple tax increases for expansion of the governmental support may bring about public's strong opposition. In order to overcome this public opposition, this study suggests that it is necessary to arouse public understanding of the necessity of overseas oil and gas E&P projects. - Highlights: • We investigate the Korean public's preferences for an oil and gas supply security. • The respondents are willing to pay USD 0.017 per liter of gasoline or diesel. • Governmental support for overseas E&P projects decreases the public utility. • It is need to increase public understanding of overseas oil and gas E&P projects.

  14. Fuel supply security

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wakabayashi, Hiroaki

    1987-01-01

    Stable fuel supply is a prerequisite for any nuclear power program including ISER-PIUS. It encompasses procurement of uranium ore, enriched uranium and fuel elements. Uranium is different from oil in that it can be stockpiled for more than a decade besides the fact that the core residence time is as long as six years, for example in the case of ISER-PIUS. These basic fuel characteristics are favoring nuclear fuel over others in terms of supply security. The central concern will be a gradual increase in prices of uranium and enrichment. Under the present glut situation with the worldwide prevalence of LWRs, fuel supply security seems ensured for the time being till the middle of 21st century. It is estimated that by the turn of the century, the free world will have roughly 450 GWe capacity of nuclear power. If 10 % is supplied for ISER-PIUS, more than 200 modules of 200 MWe ISER-PIUS may be deployed all over the world probably starting around 2000. As part of the fuel supply security consideration, heavy water reactor (HWR) may seem interesting to such a country as Indonesia where there is uranium resources but no enrichment capability. But it needs heavy water instead and the operation is not so easy as of LWR, because of the positive void coefficient as was seen at the Chernobyl-4. Safeguarding of the fuel is also difficult, because it lends itself to on line refueling. The current and future situation of the fuel supply security for LWR seem well founded and established long into the future. (Nogami, K.)

  15. Investments secure supply security

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van Baarle, D.

    2006-01-01

    In order to guarantee the supply of energy considerable investment must be made to improve the infrastructure (e.g. capacity for LNG-transport and -storage) and ties with the natural gas supplier in the Russian Federation must be intensified [nl

  16. Stochastic Optimization of Supply Chain Risk Measures –a Methodology for Improving Supply Security of Subsidized Fuel Oil in Indonesia

    OpenAIRE

    Adinda Yuanita; Andi Noorsaman Sommeng; Anondho Wijonarko

    2015-01-01

    Monte Carlo simulation-based methods for stochastic optimization of risk measures is required to solve complex problems in supply security of subsidized fuel oil in Indonesia. In order to overcome constraints in distribution of subsidized fuel in Indonesia, which has the fourth largest population in the world—more than 250,000,000 people with 66.5% of productive population, and has more than 17,000 islands with its population centered around the nation's capital only—it is necessary to have a...

  17. Stochastic Optimization of Supply Chain Risk Measures –a Methodology for Improving Supply Security of Subsidized Fuel Oil in Indonesia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adinda Yuanita

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Monte Carlo simulation-based methods for stochastic optimization of risk measures is required to solve complex problems in supply security of subsidized fuel oil in Indonesia. In order to overcome constraints in distribution of subsidized fuel in Indonesia, which has the fourth largest population in the world—more than 250,000,000 people with 66.5% of productive population, and has more than 17,000 islands with its population centered around the nation's capital only—it is necessary to have a measurable and integrated risk analysis with monitoring system for the purpose of supply security of subsidized fuel. In consideration of this complex issue, uncertainty and probability heavily affected this research. Therefore, this research did the Monte Carlo sampling-based stochastic simulation optimization with the state-of-the-art "FIRST" parameter combined with the Sensitivity Analysis to determine the priority of integrated risk mitigation handling so that the implication of the new model design from this research may give faster risk mitigation time. The results of the research identified innovative ideas of risk based audit on supply chain risk management and new FIRST (Fairness, Independence, Reliable, Sustainable, Transparent parameters on risk measures. In addition to that, the integration of risk analysis confirmed the innovative level of priority on sensitivity analysis. Moreover, the findings showed that the new risk mitigation time was 60% faster than the original risk mitigation time.

  18. Planning security for supply security

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Spies von Buellesheim.

    1994-01-01

    The situation of the hardcoal mining industry is still difficult, however better than last year. Due to better economic trends in the steel industry, though on a lower level, sales in 1994 have stabilised. Stocks are being significantly reduced. As to the production, we have nearly reached a level which has been politically agreed upon in the long run. Due to the determined action of the coalmining companies, a joint action of management and labour, the strong pressure has been mitigated. On the energy policy sector essential targets have been achieved: First of all the ECSC decision on state aid which will be in force up to the year 2002 and which will contribute to accomplish the results of the 1991 Coal Round. Furthermore, the 1994 Act on ensuring combustion of hardcoal in electricity production up to the year 2005. The hardcoal mining industry is grateful to all political decision makers for the achievements. The industry demands, however, that all questions still left open, including the procurement of financial means after 1996, should be settled soon on the basis of the new act and in accordance with the 1991 Coal Round and the energy concept of the Federal Government. German hardcoal is an indispensable factor within a balanced energy mix which guarantees the security of our energy supply, the security of the price structure and the respect of the environment. (orig.) [de

  19. Oil sands supply outlook

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dunbar, R.

    2004-01-01

    In March 2004, The Canadian Energy Research Institute released a report on the expected future supply from Alberta's oil sands. The report indicates that the future for the already well-established oil sands industry is promising, particularly given the outlook for oil prices. The challenges facing the industry include higher industry supply costs and the need for innovative commercial and technological solutions to address the risks of irregularities and changes in crude oil prices. In 2003, the industry produced 874 thousand barrels per day of synthetic crude oil and unprocessed crude bitumen. This represents 35 per cent of Canada's total oil production. Current production capacity has increased to 1.0 million barrels per day (mbpd) due to new projects. This number may increase to 3.5 mbpd by 2017. Some new projects may be deferred due to the higher raw bitumen and synthetic crude oil supply costs. This presentation provided supply costs for a range of oil sands recovery technologies and production projections under various business scenarios. tabs., figs

  20. Security of supply in Ireland 2006

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bazilian, Morgan; O'Leary, Fergal; O Gallachoir, Brian; Howley, Martin

    2006-12-01

    This is the second annual report on the title theme from SEI. Since SEI's initial security of supply publication there has been considerable attention paid to the security of supply aspects of energy policy worldwide. This reports updates and refines the metrics used to consider security of supply in Ireland. It also presents new analysis in three areas; the development of a supply/demand index, use of mean variance portfolio analysis for the electricity sector and a high oil price energy forecast scenario

  1. IEA Response System for Oil Supply Emergencies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2008-12-15

    Emergency response to oil supply disruptions has remained a core mission of the International Energy Agency since its founding in 1974. This information pamphlet explains the decisionmaking process leading to an IEA collective action, the measures available -- focusing on stockdraw -- and finally, the historical background of major oil supply disruptions and the IEA response to them. It also demonstrates the continuing need for emergency preparedness, including the growing importance of engaging key transition and emerging economies in dialogue about energy security.

  2. IEA Response System for Oil Supply Emergencies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2010-07-15

    Emergency response to oil supply disruptions has remained a core mission of the International Energy Agency since its founding in 1974. This information pamphlet explains the decisionmaking process leading to an IEA collective action, the measures available -- focusing on stockdraw -- and finally, the historical background of major oil supply disruptions and the IEA response to them. It also demonstrates the continuing need for emergency preparedness, including the growing importance of engaging key transition and emerging economies in dialogue about energy security.

  3. The security of energy supplies in Europe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vuillemin, Francois

    2002-01-01

    As an attempt occurred against a French oil tanker in the Persian Gulf (in 2002), and showed that security of oil supplies is not only related to oil shock or to political environment such as the Cold War, this article discusses issues of security for European energy supplies. It first addresses the situation and the evolution of energy needs and resources in the World and in Europe: predictions of evolution of consumption and production, major role of fossil fuels in the European consumption. It discusses the outage risks: the supply security can be analysed with respect to consumption per sector, per usage or per energy product, and Europe must face three major risks (no more hydrocarbon resources at a reasonable cost, economic risk due to market volatility, geopolitical risk). The next part discusses the perspective of a European strategy. It identifies several elements of choice for Europe in terms of energy demand management, of opening up to competition of electricity and gas markets. It discusses European ambitions in terms of supply security: need of a community framework, actual propositions of a directive for oil and gas

  4. The security of energy supply. The European seminar. The green book of the Commission. The IEA judgment. The strategic oil stocks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rose, D.; Burucoa, X.

    2001-01-01

    This issue of Energies et Matieres Premieres journal comprises five articles about the security of energy supplies in Europe and France. The first article is the opening talk given by Christian Pierret at the European seminar on the security of energy supplies (Paris-Bercy, France, Nov. 24 2000). The article gives a broad presentation of the French energy policy in the worldwide economical, political and environmental context of energy. The second article is the concluding talk given by Jean-Michel Charpin at the seminar. The third article reports on some excerpts of the technical summary that was used to elaborate the green book of the European commission about the security of energy supplies. The fourth article is a summary written in collaboration with the IEA about the French policy of security of energy supplies. The last article gives a presentation of the role and management of strategic oil stocks (historical aspects, rules and legal aspects, management of crises, economical impact of the US destocking of September 2000, proposal of the European Commission's green book). (J.S.)

  5. THE COSTS OF ENERGY SUPPLY SECURITY

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rogner, H.H.; Langlois, L.M.; McDonald, A.; Weisser, D.; Howells, M.

    2007-07-01

    In general, increasing a country's energy supply security does not come for free. It costs money to build up a strategic reserve, to increase supply diversity or even to accelerate energy efficiency improvements. Nor are all investments in increasing energy supply security cost effective, even if the shocks they are designed to insure against can be predicted with 100% accuracy. The first half of the paper surveys different definitions and strategies associated with the concept of energy supply security, and compares current initiatives to establish an 'assured supply of nuclear fuel' to the International Energy Agency's (IEA's) system of strategic national oil reserves. The second half of the paper presents results from several case studies of the costs and effectiveness of selected energy supply security policies. One case study examines alternative strategies for Lithuania following the scheduled closure of the Ignalina-2 nuclear reactor in 2009. The second case study examines, for countries with different energy resources and demand structures, the effectiveness of a policy to increase supply diversity by expanding renewable energy supplies. (auth)

  6. Resources and future supply of oil

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kjaerstad, Jan; Johnsson, Filip

    2009-01-01

    countries with a poor transparency. The world will become increasingly dependent on a few countries in the Middle East and on Russia not only for the supply of oil but also for the supply of gas which to a large extent will be utilised for power and heat generation. A responsible policy should under these circumstances seek to enhance energy security which should be directed towards promoting energy efficiency measures (reduce demand) in combination with increased utilisation of indigenous fuel resources such as renewables and fossil fuels in combination with CO 2 capture and storage. Such a policy would both facilitate the transmission to a more sustainable energy system in the future as well as enhance energy security

  7. International Oil Supplies and Demands

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1991-09-01

    The eleventh Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) working group met four times over the 1989--90 period to compare alternative perspectives on international oil supplies and demands through 2010 and to discuss how alternative supply and demand trends influence the world's dependence upon Middle Eastern oil. Proprietors of eleven economic models of the world oil market used their respective models to simulate a dozen scenarios using standardized assumptions. From its inception, the study was not designed to focus on the short-run impacts of disruptions on oil markets. Nor did the working group attempt to provide a forecast or just a single view of the likely future path for oil prices. The model results guided the group's thinking about many important longer-run market relationships and helped to identify differences of opinion about future oil supplies, demands, and dependence.

  8. International Oil Supplies and Demands

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1991-09-01

    The eleventh Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) working group met four times over the 1989--90 period to compare alternative perspectives on international oil supplies and demands through 2010 and to discuss how alternative supply and demand trends influence the world's dependence upon Middle Eastern oil. Proprietors of eleven economic models of the world oil market used their respective models to simulate a dozen scenarios using standardized assumptions. From its inception, the study was not designed to focus on the short-run impacts of disruptions on oil markets. Nor did the working group attempt to provide a forecast or just a single view of the likely future path for oil prices. The model results guided the group's thinking about many important longer-run market relationships and helped to identify differences of opinion about future oil supplies, demands, and dependence

  9. International Oil Supplies and Demands

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1992-04-01

    The eleventh Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) working group met four times over the 1989--1990 period to compare alternative perspectives on international oil supplies and demands through 2010 and to discuss how alternative supply and demand trends influence the world's dependence upon Middle Eastern oil. Proprietors of eleven economic models of the world oil market used their respective models to simulate a dozen scenarios using standardized assumptions. From its inception, the study was not designed to focus on the short-run impacts of disruptions on oil markets. Nor did the working group attempt to provide a forecast or just a single view of the likely future path for oil prices. The model results guided the group's thinking about many important longer-run market relationships and helped to identify differences of opinion about future oil supplies, demands, and dependence

  10. International Oil Supplies and Demands

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1992-04-01

    The eleventh Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) working group met four times over the 1989--1990 period to compare alternative perspectives on international oil supplies and demands through 2010 and to discuss how alternative supply and demand trends influence the world's dependence upon Middle Eastern oil. Proprietors of eleven economic models of the world oil market used their respective models to simulate a dozen scenarios using standardized assumptions. From its inception, the study was not designed to focus on the short-run impacts of disruptions on oil markets. Nor did the working group attempt to provide a forecast or just a single view of the likely future path for oil prices. The model results guided the group's thinking about many important longer-run market relationships and helped to identify differences of opinion about future oil supplies, demands, and dependence.

  11. Security management of water supply

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tchórzewska-Cieślak Barbara

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available The main aim of this work is to present operational problems concerning the safety of the water supply and the procedures for risk management systems functioning public water supply (CWSS and including methods of hazard identification and risk assessment. Developed a problem analysis and risk assessment, including procedures called. WSP, which is recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO as a tool for comprehensive security management of water supply from source to consumer. Water safety plan is a key element of the strategy for prevention of adverse events in CWSS.

  12. Nuclear energy and the security of energy supply

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bertel, E.

    2005-01-01

    Security of energy supply was a major concern for OECD governments in the early 1970. Since then, successive oil crises, volatility of hydrocarbon prices, as well as terrorist risks and natural disasters, have brought the issue back to the centre stage of policy agendas. In this paper, the author discusses the problem of energy supply security. Can security of supply be measured? What is the role of government and of nuclear energy? And what are measures for ensuring security of supply? (A.L.B.)

  13. Oil supply and demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rech, O.

    2004-01-01

    World oil demand, driven by economic development in China, posted the highest growth rate in 20 years. In a context of geopolitical uncertainty, prices are soaring, encouraged by low inventory and the low availability of residual production capacity. Will 2004 bring a change in the oil market paradigm? (author)

  14. Oil supply and demand

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rech, O

    2004-07-01

    World oil demand, driven by economic development in China, posted the highest growth rate in 20 years. In a context of geopolitical uncertainty, prices are soaring, encouraged by low inventory and the low availability of residual production capacity. Will 2004 bring a change in the oil market paradigm? (author)

  15. Oil supply and oil politics: Deja Vu all over again

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cleveland, Cutler J.; Kaufmann, Robert K.

    2003-01-01

    President Bush has identified US dependence on imported oil as an urgent energy, economic, and national security concern. The President's energy plan promotes the development of domestic resources, based on the assumption that economic incentives and the opening of frontier areas for exploration will increase domestic production. If realized, this will reduce dependence on imported oil and reduce OPEC's ability to affect aggregate oil supply and price. The evidence suggests, however, that this policy will not increase significantly US production of crude oil, will not reduce significantly OPEC's influence, and it will distort the US macroeconomy. Even if allowed, production from the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge will have a negligible impact on the world oil markets. Further subsidies to the oil industry will divert resources from other more productive investments. Conservation and energy efficiency merit greater emphasis in US energy policy given their ability to reduce the use of cost-effective and environmentally beneficial ways

  16. Oil supply and oil politics: Deja Vu all over again

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cleveland, C.J.; Kaufmann, R.K.

    2003-01-01

    President Bush has identified US dependence on imported oil as an urgent energy, economic, and national security concern. The President's energy plan promotes the development of domestic resources, based on the assumption that economic incentives and the opening of frontier areas for exploration will increase domestic production. If realized, this will reduce dependence on imported oil and reduce OPEC's ability to affect aggregate oil supply and price. The evidence suggests, however, that this policy will not increase significantly US production of crude oil, will not reduce significantly OPEC's influence, and it will distort the US macroeconomy. Even if allowed, production from the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge will have a negligible impact on the world oil markets. Further subsidies to the oil industry will divert resources from other more productive investments. Conservation and energy efficiency merit greater emphasis in US energy policy given their ability to reduce the use of cost-effective and environmentally beneficial ways. (author)

  17. The future of oil supply.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Richard G; Sorrell, Steven R

    2014-01-13

    Abundant supplies of oil form the foundation of modern industrial economies, but the capacity to maintain and grow global supply is attracting increasing concern. Some commentators forecast a peak in the near future and a subsequent terminal decline in global oil production, while others highlight the recent growth in 'tight oil' production and the scope for developing unconventional resources. There are disagreements over the size, cost and recoverability of different resources, the technical and economic potential of different technologies, the contribution of different factors to market trends and the economic implications of reduced supply. Few debates are more important, more contentious, more wide-ranging or more confused. This paper summarizes the main concepts, terms, issues and evidence that are necessary to understand the 'peak oil' debate. These include: the origin, nature and classification of oil resources; the trends in oil production and discoveries; the typical production profiles of oil fields, basins and producing regions; the mechanisms underlying those profiles; the extent of depletion of conventional oil; the risk of an approaching peak in global production; and the potential of various mitigation options. The aim is to introduce the subject to non-specialist readers and provide a basis for the subsequent papers in this Theme Issue.

  18. Speaker's presentations. Energy supply security

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pierret, Ch.

    2000-01-01

    This document is a collection of most of the papers used by the speakers of the European Seminar on Energy Supply Security organised in Paris (at the French Ministry of Economy, Finance and Industry) on 24 November 2000 by the General Direction of Energy and Raw Materials, in co-operation with the European Commission and the French Planning Office. About 250 attendees were present, including a lot of high level Civil Servants from the 15 European State members, and their questions have allowed to create a rich debate. It took place five days before the publication, on 29 November 2000, by the European Commission, of the Green Paper 'Towards a European Strategy for the Security of Energy Supply'. This French initiative, which took place within the framework of the European Presidency of the European Union, during the second half-year 2000. will bring a first impetus to the brainstorming launched by the Commission. (author)

  19. Oil supply and demand

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rech, O

    2006-07-01

    The year 2004 saw a change in the oil market paradigm that was confirmed in 2005. Despite a calmer geopolitical context, prices continued to rise vigorously. Driven by world demand, they remain high as a result of the saturation of production and refining capacity. The market is still seeking its new equilibrium. (author)

  20. Oil supply and demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rech, O.

    2006-01-01

    The year 2004 saw a change in the oil market paradigm that was confirmed in 2005. Despite a calmer geopolitical context, prices continued to rise vigorously. Driven by world demand, they remain high as a result of the saturation of production and refining capacity. The market is still seeking its new equilibrium. (author)

  1. Gas markets and security of supply

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gibot, G.

    1997-01-01

    In the natural gas business, some European states and companies seem to be concerned by security of supply. Security of supply for a governmental organisation is discussed, to share the author's conception and experience. The targets of a security of supply policy and the measures that can be set are described. The possible changes in implementing this policy are considered, according to recent developments in the field of gas security. The specificity of European gas markets justify the concern in security of supply, as concluded the Commission and the IEA. The integration of national gas markets in Europe will give new opportunities for managing this security of supply. (R.P.)

  2. Oil supply and demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mourez, B.; Favennec, J.P.

    1999-01-01

    During 1998, the price of oil continued to fall. In the autumn of 1997, the barrel of Brent was worth about $20 but then its price dropped to $10 during the last months of 1998. Early in 1997, market-watchers began to think that a downturn was possible, but it occurred on a scale that caught operators by surprise. It is always difficult to predict short- and medium-term prices or, in this case, to determine whether current prices, generally considered to be low, are here to stay

  3. Storage and security of supply

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Svensson, B.R.

    1990-01-01

    The paper considers the relationship between energy security and the consumption, supply and storage of natural gas, as agreed between the IEA Member countries. Additional supplies of natural gas should be obtained from as diverse sources as possible with emphasis on indigenous OECD sources. Instruments for coping with supply disruptions, such as underground storage of gas, interruptible gas sales, and dual-fired capabilities should be strengthened. These instruments, however, in combination with contractual swing factors, are also used to cope with fluctuations in demand for natural gas. The future demand and supply of natural gas in OECD Europe and North America is discussed. In OECD Europe the growth in residential and commercial demand is expected to be sustained, and, in both OECD Europe and North America, there is a further potential demand for gas for electricity generation. As residential and commercial demand (which is very temperature-dependent) grows, the need for storage facilities, interruptible sales contracts, dual-fired capabilities and swing factors in contracts will increase in order to balance the load. An expansion of gas demand for baseload electricity generation could, however, increase the load factor. Figures for the size of the storage capacity in 1987 and plans for future increases show that storage capacity is increasing. It is concluded that new underground storage represents an important contribution to the strengthening of each country's ability both to balance loads and to deal with supply disruptions. The IEA countries rely on the gas utilities to provide storage and other instruments for both purposes. (author). 2 figs, 3 tabs

  4. European oil product supply modelling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saint-Antonin, V.

    1998-01-01

    Over the last few years, trends in European oil product consumption (in terms of level as structure and quality) has important implications of the refining industry. In this context, the purpose of this thesis consists in building a mathematical programming model applied to the European refineries in order to determine oil product supply prices, European refining industry investments and oil product exchanges of the European Union. The first part presents the reason for our choice for a long-term aggregate multi-refineries linear programming model, based on European refineries characteristics and the objectives of our model. Its dual properties are studied in detail and we focus particularly on the European exchange modelling. In the second part, an analysis of the European refining trends leads us to identify parameters and variables of the model that are essential to the aggregate representation of the European oil product supply. The third part is devoted to the use of this model, regarding two scenarios of increasingly stringent specifications for gasoline and diesel oil. Our interest for these products is due to their important share of the European oil product consumption and the not insignificant responsibility of the transport sector for atmospheric pollution. Finally, in order to have the use of an overall picture of the European refining industry, we build a regression model summarizing, though a few equations, the main relations between the major endogenous and exogenous variables o the LP model. Based on pseudo-data, this kind of model provides a simple and robust representation of the oil product supply. But a more specialized analysis of the refining industry operations, turning on a technical assessment of processing units, is reliant on the use of an optimization model such as the model we have built. (author)

  5. World oil supply and demand'

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1997-01-01

    Apart from a collapse of oil and gas consumption in the CIS, a strong increase in demand in the newly industrialized countries and an upward trend in the OECD countries are observed. Non-Opec supply continued to grow, with a production decline in Usa and Russia but a record production level in the North Sea and a remarkable revival in South America (Colombia, Argentina) and Africa (Congo, Angola). In Opec countries, the trend goes from supply control to development of production capacity. Situations in Saudi Arabia, Iran and Iraq are detailed

  6. Energy supply security in Europe: principles and measures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Keppler, J.H.

    2007-01-01

    After having recalled a dozen of reasons for some worries about energy supply security in Europe during the past months (oil price increase, intentional interruption of gas and oil deliveries by Russia respectively to Ukraine and Belarus, creation of a new CO 2 trading scheme, tensions on the European electricity markets, and so on), the author distinguishes and discusses those which are actually a threat to energy supply and those which are not. Then, he proposes a classification of these threats in relationship with the reasons for delivery interruption, production capacity limitation, or price increase. These reasons can be political situations and decisions, technical problems, commercial reasons. Then, the author examines what European policy makers can do to manage these risks and ensure energy supply security. This needs economic as well as political responses, coherence between domestic energy policies and energy supply security, and an efficient foreign policy based on a multilateral approach

  7. Secure Energy Supply 2009. Welcome address

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Slugen, V.

    2009-01-01

    In this invitation lecture professor Slugen (President of Slovak Nuclear Society and President of European Nuclear Society) invited the participants of the International Conference: Secure Energy Supply 2009.

  8. Post Gulf War oil supply

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    May, W.R.

    1991-01-01

    One of the spin-offs from the Gulf War will be a change in the old order within OPEC. With Iraq and Kuwait production stopped because of the war, output from OPEC countries is around 23.5 million barrels per day compared with about 20 million last August before the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait. It is reported that there are some 225 to 235 million barrels of oil in inventory, worldwide, above normal levels. As seen in the accompanying graph, oil prices have drifted back to about the same level as in March 1990 from the wartime high of nearly $40/bbl. Before the invasion, Saudi Arabia's quota was 5.4 million bbls per day. Since then, Saudi has pumped at 7.7 to 7.9 bbls per day with plans to reactivate shut-in wells which will bring production capability to 10 million bbls per day. Other OPEC countries are at maximum capacity and some, Venezuela, for example, are also in the process of expanding production. This article discusses the effect of the war on the future oil supply, other countries' response to Iraq oil production, and prediction of possible oil price response

  9. Multi-perspective analysis of China's energy supply security

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Geng, Jiang-Bo; Ji, Qiang

    2014-01-01

    China's energy supply security has faced many challenges such as the drastic change of the international energy environment and the domestic energy situation and so on. This paper constructs a multi-dimensional indicator system for the main risks deriving from four aspects to evaluate the situation of China's energy supply security and analyze its evolution characteristics from 1994 to 2011. The results indicate that the situation of China's energy supply security generally presented a downtrend during 1994–2008, as a result of increasing international energy market monopoly and high volatility of international crude oil prices. After 2008, the overall level of China's energy supply security has improved to the level of 2003, which is attributed to the relatively stable international energy environment as well as the effective implementation of energy policies. - Highlights: • A multi-dimensional index system for energy supply security is constructed. • The dynamic influences of external and internal risks are analyzed. • China's energy supply security presents a downward trend during 1994–2008. • The level of China's energy supply security has improved since 2009

  10. IEA Response System for Oil Supply Emergencies (2012 update)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2012-09-05

    Emergency response to oil supply disruptions has remained a core mission of the International Energy Agency since its founding in 1974. This information pamphlet explains the decisionmaking process leading to an IEA collective action, the measures available -- focusing on stockdraw -- and finally, the historical background of major oil supply disruptions and the IEA response to them. It also demonstrates the continuing need for emergency preparedness, including the growing importance of engaging key transition and emerging economies in dialogue about energy security.

  11. Secure Supply Chains : Design Restrictions & Organizational Boundaries

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ludema, M.W.

    2009-01-01

    An important issue in the design of secure supply chains is the understanding of the relation between supply chains and the organizational responsibility of specific parts of these supply chains. Organizational boundaries change over time by means of vertical and/or horizontal (des)-integration and

  12. Non-OPEC oil supply

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mohammad, Y.H.

    1990-01-01

    The concentration of world oil reserves in members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has resulted in directing most of the attention toward them. Analysts in energy and petroleum place particular emphasis on developments within these countries. This emphasis is well placed and justified if the scope of the study is long term. However, it would be imprudent to minimize the role of non-OPEC producers in the world petroleum market if the scope of the study is short or medium term. The profiles of production in these countries assume particular importance in assessing market equilibrium and the resulting price pattern. Moreover, development since the early 1980s proved the resilience of production in non-OPEC nations and their ability to maintain production despite a substantial price decline. In fact, some of the countries were able to expand their output despite the decline in prices. In order to analyze this phenomenon, the present paper attempts to utilize available data to estimate an aggregate supply function for the non-OPEC producers as well as a separate supply function for the U.K. North Sea region. The objective is to assess the shape of the supply function and to get reliable estimates of the supply elasticity. The next section outlines the profiles of reserves and production in both OPEC and non-OPEC countries. Thereafter, the data and the estimation method are discussed. The subsequent fourth section presents the results of the estimation, followed by a summary and conclusions. 2 figs., 4 tabs

  13. Strategy to Enhance International Supply Chain Security

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    2007-01-01

    .... at 1901, 1903, October 13, 2006) which require the development of a strategic plan to enhance the security of the international supply chain, including protocols for the expeditious resumption of the flow of trade following...

  14. Nuclear power: energy security and supply assurances

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rogner, H.H.; McDonald, A.

    2008-01-01

    Expectations are high for nuclear power. This paper first summarizes recent global and regional projections for the medium-term, including the 2007 updates of IAEA projections plus International Energy Agency and World Energy Technology Outlook projections to 2030 and 2050. One driving force for nuclear power is concern about energy supply security. Two potential obstacles are concerns about increased nuclear weapon proliferation risks, and concerns by some countries about potential politically motivated nuclear fuel supply interruptions. Concerning supply security, the paper reviews different definitions, strategies and costs. Supply security is not free; nor does nuclear power categorically increase energy supply security in all situations. Concerning proliferation and nuclear fuel cut-off risks, the IAEA and others are exploring possible 'assurance of supply' mechanisms with 2 motivations. First, the possibility of a political fuel supply interruption is a non-market disincentive discouraging investment in nuclear power. Fuel supply assurance mechanisms could reduce this disincentive. Second, the risk of interruption creates an incentive for a country to insure against that risk by developing a national enrichment capability. Assurance mechanisms could reduce this incentive, thereby reducing the possible spread of new national enrichment capabilities and any associated weapon proliferation risks. (orig.)

  15. US oil dependency and energy security

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Noel, P.

    2002-01-01

    The three papers of this document were written in the framework of a seminar organized the 30 may 2002 by the IFRI in the framework of its program Energy and Climatic Change. The first presentation deals with the american oil policy since 1980 (relation between the oil dependence and the energy security, the Reagan oil policy, the new oil policy facing the increase of the dependence). The second one deals with the US energy security (oil security, domestic energy security, policy implications). The last presentation is devoted to the US oil dependence in a global context and the problems and policies of international energy security. (A.L.B.)

  16. Prospects for world oil supply

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Esser, R.W.

    1991-01-01

    Surprises lie ahead for world oil supplies, which are expected to increase rapidly throughout the 1990s before leveling off by the end of the century. The extent of this increase could be the major surprise of the decade. Large increases in the capacity in Gulf countries accompanied by smaller increases in the non-Middle East OPEC countries will be augmented by a gradual increase in non-OPEC capacity into the late 1990s. By 2000, declining capacity in the latter two areas will offset continued capacity increases in the Gulf countries. Overall capacity in the non-OPEC countries (excluding China, Eastern Europe, and the Soviet Union), is expected to increase by 1.1 million BOPD from the low point in the early 1990s to a mid 1990s peak. The increase will be led by a large increase in capacity from the United Kingdom and smaller contributions from the non-Middle East OPEC countries and Mexico. In the forecast, emphasis has been placed on a detailed evaluation of recent significant discoveries made in non-OPEC countries and non-Middle East OPEC countries since 1983, which when taken together, are expected to add 8 million BOPD new capacity as soon as 1995. These discoveries have taken place in both existing and evolving exploration hotspots that are expected to receive increasing industry emphasis in the 1990s

  17. International Oil Supplies and Demands. Volume 1

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1991-09-01

    The eleventh Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) working group met four times over the 1989--90 period to compare alternative perspectives on international oil supplies and demands through 2010 and to discuss how alternative supply and demand trends influence the world`s dependence upon Middle Eastern oil. Proprietors of eleven economic models of the world oil market used their respective models to simulate a dozen scenarios using standardized assumptions. From its inception, the study was not designed to focus on the short-run impacts of disruptions on oil markets. Nor did the working group attempt to provide a forecast or just a single view of the likely future path for oil prices. The model results guided the group`s thinking about many important longer-run market relationships and helped to identify differences of opinion about future oil supplies, demands, and dependence.

  18. International Oil Supplies and Demands. Volume 2

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1992-04-01

    The eleventh Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) working group met four times over the 1989--1990 period to compare alternative perspectives on international oil supplies and demands through 2010 and to discuss how alternative supply and demand trends influence the world`s dependence upon Middle Eastern oil. Proprietors of eleven economic models of the world oil market used their respective models to simulate a dozen scenarios using standardized assumptions. From its inception, the study was not designed to focus on the short-run impacts of disruptions on oil markets. Nor did the working group attempt to provide a forecast or just a single view of the likely future path for oil prices. The model results guided the group`s thinking about many important longer-run market relationships and helped to identify differences of opinion about future oil supplies, demands, and dependence.

  19. Capacity Credit and Security of Supply

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chozas, Julia Fernandez; Mathiesen, Brian Vad

    2015-01-01

    electricity systems are planned, and how renewable energies fit in these systems. The second part of the article assesses the actual contribution that variable renewable energies can make to security of supply, firstly from a qualitative point of view and secondly in measurable terms. The study is based......This paper addresses the question of how renewable energies can contribute to security of supply. In order to analyse this subject, the paper has two differentiated parts. In the first part, the concept of security of supply is reviewed. This provides the baseline to understand how current...... demand for electricity is highest, the study focuses on the capacity credit of future Danish scenarios including high penetrations of offshore wind, onshore wind, wave and solar PV. The results of this project can ultimately lead towards the improvement of existing rules and methods in system planning...

  20. Supply Security in Future Nuclear Fuel Markets

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Seward, Amy M. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Wood, Thomas W. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Gitau, Ernest T. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Ford, Benjamin E. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2013-11-18

    Previous PNNL work has shown the existing nuclear fuel markets to provide a high degree of supply security, including the ability to respond to supply disruptions that occur for technical and non-technical reasons. It is in the context of new reactor designs – that is, reactors likely to be licensed and market ready over the next several decades – that fuel supply security is most relevant. Whereas the fuel design and fabrication technology for existing reactors are well known, the construction of a new set of reactors could stress the ability of the existing market to provide adequate supply redundancy. This study shows this is unlikely to occur for at least thirty years, as most reactors likely to be built in the next three decades will be evolutions of current designs, with similar fuel designs to existing reactors.

  1. Supply Security in Future Nuclear Fuel Markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Seward, Amy M.; Wood, Thomas W.; Gitau, Ernest T.; Ford, Benjamin E.

    2013-01-01

    Previous PNNL work has shown the existing nuclear fuel markets to provide a high degree of supply security, including the ability to respond to supply disruptions that occur for technical and non-technical reasons. It is in the context of new reactor designs - that is, reactors likely to be licensed and market ready over the next several decades - that fuel supply security is most relevant. Whereas the fuel design and fabrication technology for existing reactors are well known, the construction of a new set of reactors could stress the ability of the existing market to provide adequate supply redundancy. This study shows this is unlikely to occur for at least thirty years, as most reactors likely to be built in the next three decades will be evolutions of current designs, with similar fuel designs to existing reactors.

  2. Future directions conventional oil supply, Western Canada

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Campbell, G.R.; Hayward, J.

    1997-01-01

    The history of the Canadian oil industry was briefly sketched and the future outlook for crude oil and natural gas liquids in western Canada was forecast. The historical review encompassed some of the significant events in history of the Canadian oil industry, including the Leduc discovery in 1947, the Swan Hills discovery in 1957, the start of commercial production from the Athabasca oil sands in 1967, the discovery of the Hibernia oilfield offshore Newfoundland in 1979, and the onset of the use of horizontal production wells in western Canada in 1987. The resource base, supply costs, and the technology that is being developed to reduce costs and to improve recovery, were reviewed. Future oil prices were predicted, taking into account the costs associated with technological developments. It was suggested that the character of the industry is undergoing a change from an industry dominated by conventional supply to a mixed industry with increasing volume of heavy oil, primary bitumen, synthetic oil and frontier supply replacing 'conventional' light crude oil. Projections into the future are subject to uncertainty both on the supply as well as on the demand side. The potential impact of technology can significantly affect demand, and technological developments can yield additional supplies which exceed current expectations. 10 figs

  3. International Conference SES 2006. Secure Energy Supply

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2006-01-01

    The International Conference SES 2006 (Secure Energy Supply, Bezpecna dodavka energie) was realised in Bratislava, during September 26 - 29, 2006 in the hotel Crowne Plaza and deals with most important problems of world and Slovak energetics. In work of Conference took part 108 slovak and 33 foreign participant from 11 countries of the world. Negotiations were realised in five sessions. First two days were devoted to lectures and second two days were visits of selected slovak energetic equipment. On the Conference has resounded matter of fact, that secure energy supply is extremely important subject for economy, but also for population

  4. Security Modeling on the Supply Chain Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marn-Ling Shing

    2007-10-01

    Full Text Available In order to keep the price down, a purchaser sends out the request for quotation to a group of suppliers in a supply chain network. The purchaser will then choose a supplier with the best combination of price and quality. A potential supplier will try to collect the related information about other suppliers so he/she can offer the best bid to the purchaser. Therefore, confidentiality becomes an important consideration for the design of a supply chain network. Chen et al. have proposed the application of the Bell-LaPadula model in the design of a secured supply chain network. In the Bell-LaPadula model, a subject can be in one of different security clearances and an object can be in one of various security classifications. All the possible combinations of (Security Clearance, Classification pair in the Bell-LaPadula model can be thought as different states in the Markov Chain model. This paper extends the work done by Chen et al., provides more details on the Markov Chain model and illustrates how to use it to monitor the security state transition in the supply chain network.

  5. Energy supply security and foreign policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2006-05-01

    The title memo has been sent to the Dutch Lower House. This memo reflects the response of the cabinet to the advice on Energetic Foreign Policy of the Dutch Advisory Council on International Affairs (AIV) and the Dutch Energy Council (AER). Moreover, the development of foreign policy with respect to energy supply security is depicted. [mk] [nl

  6. International Conference SES 2009: Secure Energy Supply

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2009-01-01

    The Conference included the following sessions: Opening addresses; (I) Energy policy; (II) Environment, Renewable sources and NPPs; (III) Secure energy supply - New nuclear units. Verbal 21 presentations have been inputted into INIS, all in the form of the full authors' presentations.

  7. Security of energy supply: Account of the security of supply in Denmark; Energiforsyningssikkerhed. Redegoerelse om forsyningssikkerheden i Danmark

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2010-02-15

    A secure and stable energy supply is a prerequisite for a society like the Danish. Through many years of active energy policy we in Denmark have developed an efficient energy system with a very high security of supply. In coming decades it is necessary to implement a major transformation of our energy supplies to more renewable energy and phase out fossil fuels. The Government's vision is that we must have a Denmark that is independent of fossil fuels. With such a fundamental transformation of our energy supply and energy system it becomes a challenge to maintain the high security of supply, as we know it today. Conversely, it is not a long term solution to continue to allow society to be dependent on fossil fuels. And it is against this background, the Danish Minister for Climate and Energy submit this account on security of energy supplies in Denmark. The account shows that we in Denmark have a high security of supply. There is still access to sufficient energy resources, we have a well-functioning infrastructure, and we have good access to the exchange of energy within the EU and other countries. This places Denmark in a good situation. Today, Denmark has a significant import of especially petroleum and coal and export of petroleum and gas. The future declining production of oil and gas in the North Sea means an increasing need for imported fuels from fewer and fewer countries and regions, and at the same time there will be an increased international demand for the same fuels. This brings Denmark in the same situation as the other EU countries. Thus we have the basis for reducing consumption of fossil fuels and instead accommodate increasing amounts of renewable energy in our energy supply, but it requires a further development of the system to be possible to store energy and manage energy consumption. It will be necessary if the growing parts of our energy must come from fluctuating sources like wind and solar energy. Efficiency in energy supply has

  8. Oil price, biofuels and food supply

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Timilsina, Govinda R.; Mevel, Simon; Shrestha, Ashish

    2011-01-01

    The price of oil could play a significant role in influencing the expansion of biofuels, but this issue has yet to be fully investigated in the literature. Using a global computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, this study analyzes the impact of oil price on biofuel expansion, and subsequently, on food supply. The study shows that a 65% increase in oil price in 2020 from the 2009 level would increase the global biofuel penetration to 5.4% in 2020 from 2.4% in 2009. If oil prices rise 150% from their 2009 levels by 2020, the resulting penetration of biofuels would be 9%, which is higher than that would be caused by current mandates and targets introduced in more than forty countries around the world. The study also shows that aggregate agricultural output drops due to an oil price increase, but the drop is small in major biofuel producing countries as the expansion of biofuels would partially offset the negative impacts of the oil price increase on agricultural outputs. An increase in oil price would reduce global food supply through direct impacts as well as through the diversion of food commodities and cropland towards the production of biofuels. - Highlights: ► A global CGE model to analyze impacts of oil price on biofuels and food supply. ► Global biofuel penetration increases from 2.4% (2009) to 5.4% (2020) in baseline. ► A 150% rise of oil price boosts biofuels more than current mandates and targets do. ► Biofuels partially offset drops in agricultural outputs caused by oil price rise. ► Biofuels as well as oil price rise negatively affect global food supply.

  9. Long-term factors in oil supply

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Banks, F E

    1984-01-01

    The Stanford Energy Supply Forum prediction that world oil demand in 1990 will press on supply and send prices into an irreversible climb assumes that the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries will control unemployment, that Third World population growth will require more energy, and that several oil exporters will be reducing their output. The author points out disappointing exploration results, OPEC's continued strength, downward projections of reserves by geological surveys, and other economic factors to show that oil supplies are likely to last less than 40 years, with remaining reserves concentrated in fewer producing countries. This will make it harder for non-OPEC countries to influence prices, in contrast to more positive forecasts from the oil industry.

  10. Oil supply in Central and South America

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aguilera, Roberto F.

    2009-01-01

    This paper estimates a cumulative supply curve for conventional oil in the Central and South American (CSA) region. The curve includes volumes from provinces not previously assessed by other organizations, as well as reserve growth. Volumes for the previously unassessed provinces are estimated using a variable shape distribution (VSD) model. Then the volumes are allocated to CSA countries based on each country's share of proved reserves. Figures provided by the cumulative supply curve are stock variables for all time, unlike the traditional supply curve where they are flow variables that can continue from one period to the next. In this study, the fixed stock approach is used since it provides practical information with respect to the concerns that some have expressed about oil scarcity in the near future. Results indicate that Central and South American oil is more abundant than often assumed, and can be produced at costs below current market oil prices, and substantially below mid-2008 prices.

  11. 75 FR 11841 - Proposed Information Collection; Comment Request; Short Supply Regulations, Petroleum (Crude Oil)

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-03-12

    ... DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Bureau of Industry and Security Proposed Information Collection; Comment Request; Short Supply Regulations, Petroleum (Crude Oil) AGENCY: Bureau of Industry and Security. ACTION... supporting documentation for license applications to export petroleum (crude oil) and is used by licensing...

  12. Oil and gas. Gas supply under pressure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Forbes, A.

    2008-01-01

    The latest review of natural gas markets from the International Energy Agency (IEA) paints a picture of growing demand in the face of rising prices, a strengthening link between gas and electricity markets, and a globalising influence from increasingly flexible LNG supplies. But there are growing signs that security of supply is under threat from underinvestment, delays and cost escalation

  13. Horizontal well impact on heavy oil supply

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bowers, B.; Bielecki, J.; Hu, J.; Wall, B.; Drummond, K.

    1993-01-01

    Horizontal wells can take advantage of gravity drainage mechanisms, which can be important in conventional heavy oil and bitumen recovery. Horizontal drilling will impact on the development of established conventional heavy oil pools by infill drilling and application of enhanced recovery techniques. There will also be an impact on the development of extensions to established and newly discovered heavy oil pools, as well as a major impact on development of bitumen resources. To assess the impact of horizontal drilling on heavy oil supply, high-impact and low-impact scenarios were evaluated under specified oil-price assumptions for four heavy oil areas in Saskatchewan and Alberta. Horizontal well potential for infill drilling, waterflood projects, and thermal projects was assessed and estimates were made of such developments as reserves additions and heavy oil development wells under the two scenarios. In the low case, projected supply of conventional heavy oil and bitumen stabilizes at a level in the 90,000-94,000 m 3 /d after 1994. In the high case, overall supply continuously grows from 80,000 m 3 /d in 1992 to 140,000 m 3 /d in 2002. Through application of horizontal drilling, reserves additions in western Canada could be improved by ca 100 million m 3 by 2002. 14 figs., 6 tabs

  14. Security of supply in electricity markets: Improving cost efficiency of supplying security and possible welfare gains

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Klinge Jacobsen, Henrik; Grenaa Jensen, Stine

    2012-01-01

    In liberalised markets the ability to maintain security of electricity supply is questioned because security is characterised as a public good. We discuss if this property can be modified with changing technology. Furthermore, we examine if construction of markets for security can be justified...... by possible welfare gains. From a welfare perspective it is possible that security levels are too high and obtained with too high costs. Adjusting the effort so that marginal cost for securing supply is at similar levels in generation capacity and in network maintenance could increase welfare even without...... the need to construct markets. Secondarily, a consumer defined average level of security might improve welfare. Finally, different willingness to pay among customers and construction of advanced markets might increase welfare further. We argue that several cost and welfare improvements can be achieved...

  15. Heavy oil supply economics and supply response to low oil prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fisher, L.

    1999-01-01

    The dynamics of the heavy oil industry are examined, including prices, market demand, supply and supply costs. Price assumptions are provided for the reference case oil price (west Texas intermediate at Cushing). Supply cost methodology is explained. Capital and operating costs for various heavy oil and synthetic sources are derived from modeling results. The range of supply costs for heavy oil and bitumen from various sources, supply costs in terms of reference case market values and in terms of 1995-1996 average market values for Bow River crude, are derived. The CERI long term supply forecast model is explained. Western Canada upstream oil and gas cash flow and capital expenditures, eastern Canada exploration and expenditures by hydrocarbon type, and Canadian heavy oil and bitumen production based on reference case prices are estimated. Based on these projections the outlook for heavy oil at reference case prices for better than average quality resources is judged to be economic. Lower quality resources will require technology gains for successful commercialization. SAGD is a likely candidate in this respect. Again based on reference prices, production is forecast to decline by 100 Kb/d over the next five years. Diluent supply is considered to be adequate throughout the forecast period. As far as thermal bitumen is concerned, the growth could, in fact, exceed the projection, but if so, more upgrading will be required. 11 figs

  16. Predicted supplies of oil: a controversy revisited

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mackay, R.M.; Probert, S.D.

    1993-01-01

    This investigation had two objectives. The first was to consider future problems of the oil industry, as envisaged at the time of the impending 1973-74 unit-oil-price crisis. To this end, selected early 1970's pertinent published papers have been analysed and their conclusions now assessed in hindsight. The chosen published articles were considered then to be in part controversial, visionary and simultaneously, often predicting very different outcomes for the future supply, demand and unit cost of crude oil. The second objective was to assess pertinent recent research, and compare what we at present believe to be the status quo for the oil industry, with the perception of how the industry would have developed as portrayed by the early 1970's oil publications. (author)

  17. Prospects for non-OPEC oil supply

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    O'Dell, S.

    1994-01-01

    An International Energy Agency forecast is provided of non-OPEC oil production over a 15-year horizon. Reference-case forecasts are derived from Hubbert-type resource models, official industry announcements about such matters as oil discoveries and development projects, and an oil industry consensus. Separate regional profiles are provided for North America, Europe, the former Soviet Union, and the rest of non-OPEC countries (South America, Asia, non-OPEC Middle East). Under a flat-price scenario ($18/bbl), total non-OPEC oil supply rises slightly from 41.4 million bbl/d (MBD) in 1995 to 41.9 MBD in 2010. Under a scenario in which prices rise to $28/bbl, oil supply rises to 47.5 MBD in 2010. The latter results depend on specific assumptions concerning economic growth, energy prices, the geological potential of some areas which are not yet well understood, technological advances, and the nature of political developments. Uncertainties regarding these assumptions are discussed, with reference to reserves, price responsiveness, world oil industry investment, technology, and costs. A major uncertainty is the issue of investment in the OPEC countries, since the rising-price scenario assumes that OPEC invests only reluctantly. If major OPEC producers choose to open their upstream sectors to international oil companies, the situation will change completely. Otherwise, oil markets are expected to continue to behave in the manner of the past 20 years, with highest-cost oil being developed first while cheaper oil remains in the ground. 8 refs., 10 figs., 3 tabs

  18. The security of gas supply-a critical issue for Europe?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Weisser, Hellmuth

    2007-01-01

    Gas is competing with oil for being the dominant energy source. In electricity generation gas is to play as pivotal a role as oil in transportation. The security equation of gas and electricity become unseparably interrelated. Energy disruptions have considerable influence on the national accounts far beyond the direct cost of market participants (asymmetry). The present gas supply to the EU depends dangerously on too few sources and venues. There is a decided lack of optionality. The EU directly or through its members needs a clear proactive policy on 'Security of Gas Supply' with a strong multilateral direction. The measures developed for the oil industry over the last 30 years can at least serve as a starting point for a constructive debate. When discussing security of supply dependence it is useful to clearly define the various risks one wishes to protect against. Free riders relying on alternative fuels without participating in their security systems are not permissible

  19. PETROBRAS Northeast gas security of supply study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Faertes, Denise; Heil, Luciana; Saker, Leonardo; Vieira, Flavia; Risi, Francisco [PETROBRAS, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Domingues, Joaquim; Alvarenga, Tobias; Mussel, Patricia [DNV, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

    2009-07-01

    The purpose of this paper is to present the study developed jointly by PETROBRAS Gas and Power Department and Det Norske Veritas (Brazil and United Kingdom office). The study was carried out with the objective of evaluating the security of supply 2009 PETROBRAS Northeast gas network. This network provides gas to thermo plants, to vehicles and to industrial and residential consumers. The occurrence of contract shortfalls implies on heavy fines for the suppliers. To provide best in class analysis, state of the art software was used in order to count on powerful tools to model the gas supply system and to quantify the availability and the efficiency of the overall network and of its individual components. It also provides the prioritization of investment, based on cost benefit analysis, and as a by-product, contingency plans that were developed, considering the identified failure scenarios. (author)

  20. Security of Supply of Hydrocarbonates and Differences in Approach to the Issue Definition

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dragicevic, T.

    2006-01-01

    Security of Supply became an issue during the First World War when First Lord of Admiralty, W. Churchill, decided to modernize the Navy by replacing coal with oil as a propelling fuel for ships. Crude oil that arrived from the then Persia opened up the question of Security. First Lord of Admiralty defined it in the following way: S afety and certainty in oil lie in variety and variety alone... . This concept of diversification of supply became topical again during the oil crises in 1973. It is topical even today as the world faces disruptions in supply caused by war intervention in Iraq, Al-Qaeda terrorist threats, hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico or difficulties in natural gas supply caused by disputes between Russia and Ukraine. The important element of security of supply is the own oil and gas production from domestic fields or foreign concessions. The countries that have their own oil industry regard highly the strategic importance of their own reserves. Private ownership of shares in oil companies or sources of capital does not diminish this strategic importance. Participation of renewable energy sources is important not only for environmental protection but for mitigating dependence on energy imports. Croatian energy strategy should be adjusted to new challenges and conditions on the energy market, taking also into account the relevant EU regulations.(author)

  1. Effect of crude oil and refined petroleum product imports on the national security. Critical technologies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1989-01-01

    The report contains the results of an investigation requested under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act to study the effect of oil imports on the domestic petroleum industry and on United States energy security. It reviews previous energy security assessments and resulting initiatives, assesses current US energy security, and studies emergency petroleum requirements. The report finds that there have been substantial improvements in US energy security since the last Section 232 Petroleum finding in 1979. However, declining domestic oil production, rising oil imports, and growing dependence on potentially insecure sources of supply raise concerns of vulnerability to a major supply disruption

  2. The relationship between security of supply and its drivers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2007-10-01

    The relationship between security of supply of natural gas in the UK and three possible drivers were considered. The drivers discussed are (1) supply margin, (2) reliability of supply and (3) diversity of supply. The department for Business Enterprise and Regulatory Reform's gas security of supply model may be applied to estimate 'expected energy unserved (EEU)' according to a range of conditions of supply and demand. Supply margin and mix can be varied in the model, as can the reliability of supply sources. The paper describes work exploring the impact on the EEU of changes in these three drivers

  3. Supply chain security orientation in the pharmaceutical industry ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Supply chain security orientation is an abstract phenomenon, which, up to now, has received little research attention. The purpose of this study, therefore, was to explore the supply chain security orientation of firms participating in the South African pharmaceutical supply chain with the aim of identifying specific risks and of ...

  4. Security of Europe's energy supply. Russia's role

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goffaux, P.

    1994-01-01

    A conference on ''Europe's Energy supplies by Russia'', has been organised march 17th 1994 by the Energy and Raw Materials Geopolitics Centre and the Moscow Energy Club, with participation of the World Energy Council. The round-table on petrol outlined the Eastern Europe dependency and the skepticism of western petroleum companies concerning Russian's deposits. The round table on gas outlined the importance of Russian's gas deposits and the development of its european exportations. The round table on nuclear power stated the heavy costs of security improvements, and argued for the taking off, after year 2000, of a new generation of reactors jointly designed by western and russian engineers. (D.L.). 4 figs., 1 tab

  5. China's energy security: Oil and gas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wu, Kang

    2014-01-01

    China is currently the largest energy consuming country in the world. Until the early 1990s, China had long been a net energy exporter. The country became a net oil importer in 1993, the first time since the 1960s. For China, energy security first means oil supply security. China turned into a net natural gas importer in 2007 and then a net coal importer in 2009. In other words, China is now a net importer of all three types of fossil energy—oil, natural gas, and coal. In the context of rising oil imports and implementation of China's 12th Five-Year Program from 2011 to 2015, this paper examines China's energy security strategies with a focus on three leading elements, namely overseas oil investment, strategic petroleum reserves (SPR)and unconventional gas development. Our findings suggest that the Chinese government has promoted overseas investment strongly; its SPR program has been established though the progress for Phase II has been slower than expected and the government intends to boost the unconventional gas sector development. However, the challenges are enormous as well. As for future research, other elements for each dimension of energy security should be reviewed to reach a comprehensive conclusion about how well China has done and what steps are needed to move forward. - Highlights: • Identified China's key energy security strategies during the 12th Five-Year Program (FYP) and previous FYPs. • Provided a unique insight into China's rising oil imports. • Reviewed China's overseas oil and gas investment as a key energy security measure. • Assessed China's strategic petroleum reserves program and the future growth. • Provided a comprehensive coverage of China's unconventional gas development, including both coal-bed methane and shale gas

  6. Securing cooperation from persons supplying statistical data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    AUBENQUE, M J; BLAIKLEY, R M; HARRIS, F F; LAL, R B; NEURDENBURG, M G; DE SHELLY HERNANDEZ, R

    1954-01-01

    Securing the co-operation of persons supplying information required for medical statistics is essentially a problem in human relations, and an understanding of the motivations, attitudes, and behaviour of the respondents is necessary.Before any new statistical survey is undertaken, it is suggested by Aubenque and Harris that a preliminary review be made so that the maximum use is made of existing information. Care should also be taken not to burden respondents with an overloaded questionnaire. Aubenque and Harris recommend simplified reporting. Complete population coverage is not necessary.Neurdenburg suggests that the co-operation and support of such organizations as medical associations and social security boards are important and that propaganda should be directed specifically to the groups whose co-operation is sought. Informal personal contacts are valuable and desirable, according to Blaikley, but may have adverse effects if the right kind of approach is not made.Financial payments as an incentive in securing co-operation are opposed by Neurdenburg, who proposes that only postage-free envelopes or similar small favours be granted. Blaikley and Harris, on the other hand, express the view that financial incentives may do much to gain the support of those required to furnish data; there are, however, other incentives, and full use should be made of the natural inclinations of respondents. Compulsion may be necessary in certain instances, but administrative rather than statutory measures should be adopted. Penalties, according to Aubenque, should be inflicted only when justified by imperative health requirements.The results of surveys should be made available as soon as possible to those who co-operated, and Aubenque and Harris point out that they should also be of practical value to the suppliers of the information.Greater co-operation can be secured from medical persons who have an understanding of the statistical principles involved; Aubenque and Neurdenburg

  7. US oil policy and energy security

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Noel, P.

    2002-05-01

    Although the energy dependence reached its historical maximum and will continue to increase for the next 20 years, the USA keep their oil policy. For the economist this policy is reasonable because of the poor room for the US imports reduction costs. To explain these conclusions the author discusses on the following topics: the links between the oil dependence and the energy security, the oil policy after Reagan, the oil policy evolution - or no evolution - facing the increasing dependency and the Cheney report. (A.L.B.)

  8. Panorama 2007: Oil Supply and Demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lescaroux, F.

    2007-01-01

    A new paradigm is gradually developing on the world oil market. Under extreme pressure from growing demand in emerging countries, the supply side is progressively adjusting. As the market stabilizes, prices are seeking their equilibrium. Although the WTI seems to be finding its level at about USD 60 per barrel, it is still too soon to take this price quotation as a reference. Due to the inertia in behaviours, the effects of recent trends are not all visible yet and adjustments are still underway. In this uncertain business environment, key market players have not yet finalized their strategies. (author)

  9. Non-OPEC Oil Supply: Economics and Energy Policy Options

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mourik, Maarten van [Paris (France); Shepherd, Richard K. [Perpignan (France)

    2003-07-01

    shift in investment strategy than the lure of better profits. However strong the evidence of an imminent peaking of offshore and perhaps total non-OPEC oil supply, the reality is that governments will not readily recognise a 'bad news' scenario that will inevitably tarnish their own political image. It follows that a global and permanent threat to their economies and energy security from a shortfall in oil supply outside the Persian Gulf and central Asia will only become a policy assumption if viable and attractive energy policy options are available. If there is single focus to any energy supply threat, then it is the market for transportation fuels, the strongest growing segment of the energy market and the only segment of the energy market where there are no significant alternatives already on offer. The second half of this paper suggests that there are industrial or financial obstacles to the large-scale introduction of fuels other than current specification gasoline and diesel. Almost all the current initiatives to explore and encourage alternative fuels address a long-term future in which fuel cells or hydrogen or 'California-clean' liquids replace the current fuels at the pump. Further, most research concentrates on the environmental aspects of the alternatives rather than their large-scale industrial availability. Yet the hard reality is that any solution to the global oil supply dilemma must be large scale (at least 10% of the total market for transportation fuels) and soon, which means within a decade. The technical facts are that fuels such as ethanol and methanol can be produced in very large volumes and delivered to the consumer without any significant change to the huge infrastructure constituted by the global internal combustion engine manufacturing industry and by the existing fuel distribution networks. This large, immediate and obvious opportunity has not been grasped so far for the excellent reason that the status quo is profitable

  10. 78 FR 59706 - Secure Supply Chain Pilot Program; Correction

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-09-27

    ...] Secure Supply Chain Pilot Program; Correction AGENCY: Food and Drug Administration, HHS. ACTION: Notice... Federal Register of August 20, 2013 (78 FR 51192). The document announced the start of the Secure Supply Chain Pilot Program (SSCPP). The document was published with an incorrect email address for the SSCPP...

  11. Security drives Kuwait's oil shift

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Henderson, Simon

    1998-01-01

    With Kuwait considering allowing foreign investment in its upstream oil sector, political opposition remains at the parliamentary level. The internal debate between government ministers who favour the potential $7bn investment in their economy, and politicians concerned about foreign control of this essential national asset is described in this article. This politically volatile region, with its recent experience of the Iran/Iraq war, still maintains itself in readiness in case of invasion, and badly needs the foreign investment in order to raise current production levels because of low global oil prices. (UK)

  12. China's quest for oil security: oil (wars) in the pipeline?

    OpenAIRE

    Lee, Pak K.

    2005-01-01

    China's rapidly expanding demand for crude oil in the 1990s has brought about debates about the potential impact of the energy challenges facing China. Within the country, energy as a security issue has seized the attention of its leaders. Outside China, international strategic thinkers have been arguing among themselves over how China's thirst for oil would impact on regional peace and stability.\\ud \\ud This paper sets out to examine the following questions: How and why has the basic need fo...

  13. Secure information sharing in digital supply chains

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bhargava, B.; Ranchal, R.; Ben Othmane, L.; Kalra, B.M.

    2013-01-01

    Modern organizations interact with their partners through digital supply chain business processes for producing and delivering products and services to consumers. A partner in this supply chain can be a sub-contractor to whom work is outsourced. Each partner in a supply chain uses data, generates

  14. Numerical study on oil supply system of a rotary compressor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wu, Jianhua; Wang, Gang

    2013-01-01

    The oil supply system is a crucial reliability issue for rotary compressors. This paper provides a general method for analyzing the oil supply system of a rotary compressor by using computational fluid dynamics (CFD). The process includes establishing the physical model, dividing computational grid, setting boundary conditions, calculating leakage rates through the roller end clearances, translating the dynamic issue into the static issue and so on. Validation of the rationality of the oil supply system model has been made by the measurement of the main bearing oil flow rates. The effects of operating conditions of the compressor, the oil level height of the oil sump and the main design parameters of the oil supply system on the oil supply characteristics are analyzed by numerical simulation. It is found that the main bearing oil flow rate varies circularly along with the rotation of the shaft. The shape and inclination angle of the spiral groove also influence the main bearing oil flow rate. The oil leakage rates through the roller end clearances depend largely on the operating conditions. In addition, the oil level height of the oil sump has a huge effect on the total oil flow rate. -- Highlights: • A CFD method for analyzing the oil supply system of rotary compressor is presented. • Leakage through the roller end clearances depends on the operating condition. • Groove shape and inclination angle are the main design parameters of spiral grooves. • A parabolic interface of oil and gas can be formed in the gallery of the shaft. • Single-flow model and steady solver can be applied to the oil supply system

  15. Oil and gas supply : hurdles and opportunities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Giusti, L.

    2006-01-01

    The socioeconomic development in Latin America was discussed with reference to its abundant and diverse resources. Despite its large population, Latin America represents only 6 per cent of the world gross domestic product (GDP) and a less than 6 per cent of the total world trading. This presentation described the problems of large deficits, poor economic policies, large debt and corruption that provoked inflation, economic slowdown, and foreign debt in Latin America. Policy makers agreed that reforms were needed if Latin American economies were to grow more than 6 per cent a year, and to lower the number of people living in poverty in the region. The second-generation reform for Latin America was meant to promote economic development without inflation. It is based on quality public sector governance; fiscal strengthening; an enhanced legal and regulatory framework; efficient financial markets; and, labour and market reform. This presentation also discussed the oil and gas industry's contention with the perceptions that the economic crisis in Latin America was caused by globalization, international trade and acquisitive industrialized countries. An initiative was launched in 1994 to build an integrated energy data bank, evaluate existing interconnections among Latin American countries, and identify barriers for a larger integration to facilitate and improve commercial activities. It was emphasized that while the United States has a large deficit of oil, Canada and Latin America have large surpluses of energy resources, which if developed efficiently and effectively, can be a leading engine of regional development and an important contributor to global competitiveness. Canada is the largest supplier of energy, including oil, natural gas and electricity to the United States, the world's largest energy consumer and largest oil and gas market. Mexico and Brazil were identified as the other 2 large economies in the region's energy chain, but Mexico is self sufficient and

  16. Evaluating the Security of the Global Containerized Supply Chain

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Willis, Henry H; Ortiz, David S

    2004-01-01

    .... However, heightened awareness of terrorism has redefined supply-chain security-the consequences of an attack on or via a critical global port could be a tremendous loss of life and a crippling of the U.S...

  17. Security of supply in the liberalized energy market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boffa, Federico

    2007-01-01

    The incentive schemes in the liberalized energy markets do not ensure short-term security of supply. The paper analyzes the regulatory measures suitable to tackle the issue, and evaluates their effects on market power [it

  18. Delivering a secure electricity supply on a low carbon pathway

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boston, Andy

    2013-01-01

    The energy system can only be considered sustainable in the long term if it is low carbon, affordable and secure. These three create a complex trilemma for all stakeholders in the energy business who have to strike a careful balance without neglecting any one aspect. This discussion paper examines the issues surrounding security of supply of the power system which has received less attention than the other aspects. It looks at how threats and mitigation measures can be classified in terms of where they act on the supply chain and the timescale over which they act. Only by considering the full range of timescales from seconds to decades can the full picture emerge of the effects of new technologies on security of supply. An examination of blackouts over the past 40 years sheds light on the causes of failure to supply and the most vulnerable aspects of the supply chain. - Highlights: ► Energy systems are only sustainable if they are low carbon, affordable and secure. ► Threats to security can be classified by timescale and position in the supply chain. ► The impact of new technologies on security must be considered across all timescales. ► Recent blackouts show the network is most vulnerable and weather the leading cause

  19. Security of supply and regulation of energy networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jamasb, Tooraj; Pollitt, Michael

    2008-01-01

    In recent years, the security of energy supplies has re-emerged as a central issue in the energy policy arena in the UK and elsewhere. This re-emergence takes place against a backdrop of increased liberalisation of the energy markets, so that security of supply needs to be revisited within this context. Security of supply is multifaceted, but is often discussed in terms of physical availability of energy sources and their commodity price risk. This paper discusses the relationship between security of supply and network regulation - that is, how the energy networks, and appropriate regulation of them, can contribute to security of supply in liberalised energy sectors. Energy networks are predominantly natural monopolies and as a result are generally subject to regulatory oversight. We discuss a range of issues and trends that pose challenges and opportunities to network regulation and which call for new and innovative measures. The paper identifies a number of areas where network regulation can play a significant role in increasing the security of supply of future energy systems. (author)

  20. Estimating demand and supply of edible oil in Pakistan

    OpenAIRE

    Haq, Rashida

    1991-01-01

    This paper examines the demand for edible oil in Pakistan and a dynamic supply response model to show price responsiveness by sunflower oilseed farmers. The demand for edible oil is estimated by using Ordinary Least Square (OLS) technique. It has been found that an increase in the consumption of edible oil is highly affected by urbanization, increase in per capita income, relative high price of its substitutes and the rapid growth of the population. In order to estimate supply response model ...

  1. A New EU Gas Security of Supply Architecture?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    De Jong, J. [Clingendael International Energy Programme CIEP, The Hague (Netherlands); Glachant, J.M.; Ahner, N. [European University Institute EUI, San Domenico di Fiesole (Italy); Hafner, M.; Tagliapietra, S. [Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei FEEM, Milan (Italy)

    2012-07-15

    A series of workshops has been organized in order to take stock and discuss a possible new architecture for EU gas security. Discussions and reflections reported from the workshops held under this project have developed into the concluding ideas and recommendations for a new EU gas security of supply architecture, which are reflected in this article.

  2. Supply chain security orientation in the pharmaceutical industry

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    kirstam

    related partnerships and business process backups are the most neglected aspects of supply chain ..... order to manage possible supply chain security issues. ... of the moral and ethical obligations placed on organisations as a result of such ...... Cooper, D.R. & Schindler, P.S. 2014. Business Research Methods. 12 ed.

  3. Exploring the undulating plateau: the future of global oil supply.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jackson, Peter M; Smith, Leta K

    2014-01-13

    In this paper, we analyse the factors that will influence long-term oil supply and describe the future form of the global oil supply profile as an 'undulating plateau' rather than an irreversible, short-term peak or an ever upward trend of increasing production. The ultimate transition from a world of relatively plentiful and cheap oil to one of tight supply and high cost will be slow and challenging. An understanding of the signposts for the future path of supply and the drivers of that profile will be critical to managing the transition. The ultimate form of the global supply curve may well be dictated by demand evolution rather than a limited resource endowment in the longer term. Several factors will probably control future global oil supply. We believe that the scale of global oil resource will not constitute a physical supply limit for at least the next two or three decades. However, all categories of oil resources are already more expensive to develop than in the past, requiring high oil prices to stimulate supply growth. Lower rates of oil demand growth relative to economic growth, combined with more challenging supply growth, will probably lead to an undulating plateau sometime after 2040, with demand from non-Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development states continuing to dominate. Upstream investment requirements and oil price volatility will increase towards and beyond the undulating production plateau. In this new world, high oil prices will induce demand destruction, fuel substitution and ever increasing energy efficiency. As we discuss below, the fundamental differences between the IHS Cambridge Energy Research Associates' (IHS CERA) view of the future of oil supply and many peak oil supply models are the timing of the onset of a dramatic slowdown in the rate of growth of supply and the existence or otherwise of a production plateau. We do not dispute that supply will plateau and eventually fall; the question is when, how and at what price

  4. Market Design and Supply Security in Imperfect Power Markets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schwenen, Sebastian

    2014-01-01

    Supply security in imperfect power markets is modelled under different market designs. In a uniform price auction for electricity with two firms, strategic behaviour may leave firms offering too few capacities and unable to supply all realized demand. Market design that relies oncapacity markets...... increases available generation capacities for sufficiently high capacity prices and consequently decreases energy prices. However, equilibrium capacity prices are non-competitive. Capacity markets can increase security of supply, but cannot mitigate market power, which is exercised in the capacity market...

  5. Liberalisation and the security of gas supply in the UK

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wright, Philip

    2005-01-01

    This paper contests the view held by the current UK government and its industry regulator, OFGEM, that liberalisation is good for security of supply. Focusing on the downstream aspects of the security of UK gas supply, on system security, it considers the impact of the different aspects of liberalisation: of legal governance, supply competition, de-integration, market simulation, regulation and the interaction of liberalised gas and electricity markets. Categorising these impacts in terms of security threats and threats to security response, it finds that individually and as a complex collectivity they have increased the risks of supply failure, either potential or already realised, in a variety of ways: from creating increased uncertainty and failing to signal adequate or appropriate investment, to legal ambiguity which divorces responsibility from liability and renders legal liability indeterminate ex ante. Moreover, one of the UK government's responses to these increased dangers, which it does appear to perceive, is revealed as itself paralysed by the liberalisation paradigm: the government can only intervene pre-emptively with information in attempt to persuade the market to behave as it thinks it should. Meanwhile, however, the government has also had to recognise its default responsibility for security of supply and make preparations to intervene in an emergency situation: liberalisation can only be challenged when it is already too late

  6. Assessing Security of Supply: Three Methods Used in Finland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sivonen, Hannu

    Public Private Partnership (PPP) has an important role in securing supply in Finland. Three methods are used in assessing the level of security of supply. First, in national expert groups, a linear mathematical model has been used. The model is based on interdependency estimates. It ranks societal functions or its more detailed components, such as items in the food supply chain, according to the effect and risk pertinent to the interdependencies. Second, the security of supply is assessed in industrial branch committees (clusters and pools) in the form of indicators. The level of security of supply is assessed against five generic factors (dimension 1) and tens of business branch specific functions (dimension 2). Third, in two thousand individual critical companies, the maturity of operational continuity management is assessed using Capability Maturity Model (CMM) in an extranet application. The pool committees and authorities obtain an anonymous summary. The assessments are used in allocating efforts for securing supply. The efforts may be new instructions, training, exercising, and in some cases, investment and regulation.

  7. An oil demand and supply model incorporating monetary policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Askari, Hossein; Krichene, Noureddine

    2010-01-01

    Oil price inflation may have had a significant role in pushing the world economy into its worst post-war recession during 2008-2009. Reserve currency central banks pursued an overly expansionary monetary policy during 2001-2009, in the form of low or negative real interest rates and accompanied by a rapidly falling US dollar, while paying inadequate attention to the destabilizing effects on oil markets. In this paper, we show that monetary policy variables, namely key interest rates and the US dollar exchange rate, had a powerful effect on oil markets. World oil demand was significantly influenced by interest and dollar exchange rates, while oil supply was rigid. Oil demand and supply have very low price elasticity and this characteristic makes oil prices highly volatile and subject to wider fluctuations than the prices of other commodities. Aggressive monetary policy would stimulate oil demand, however, it would be met with rigid oil supply and would turn inflationary and disruptive to economic growth if there was little excess capacity in oil output. We argue that a measure of stability in oil markets cannot be achieved unless monetary policy is restrained and real interest rates become significantly positive. Monetary tightening during 1979-1982 might imply that monetary policy has to be restrained for a long period and with high interest rates in order to bring stability back to oil markets. (author)

  8. Approach to securing of stable nuclear fuel supplies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koike, Kunihisa; Imamura, Isao; Noda, Tetsuya

    2010-01-01

    With the dual objectives of not only ensuring stable electric power supplies but also preventing global warming, the construction of new nuclear power plants is being planned in many countries throughout the world. Toshiba and Westinghouse Electric Company (WEC), a member of the Toshiba Group, are capable of supplying both boiling water reactor (BWR) and pressurized water reactor (PWR) plants to satisfy a broad range of customer requirements. Furthermore, to meet the growing demand for the securing of nuclear fuel supplies, Toshiba and WEC have been promoting the strengthening and further expansion of supply chains in the fields of uranium production, uranium hexafluoride (UF 6 ) conversion, uranium enrichment, and fuel fabrication. (author)

  9. Energy security of supply under EU climate policies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Groenenberg, H.; Wetzelaer, B.J.H.W.

    2006-12-01

    The implications of various climate policies for the security of supply in the EU-25 were investigated. The security of supply was quantified using the Supply/Demand (S/D) Index. This index aggregates quantitative information on a country's energy system into one single figure. It takes a value between 0 and 100, with higher values indicating a more secure energy system. The S/D Index was calculated for the year 2020 based on the information in a series of policy scenarios, including a baseline (S/D Index 50.7), an energy efficiency scenario (53.8), two renewable energy scenarios (52.6 and 53.3) and two scenarios with combined policies (55.9 and 55.6).The S/D Index proved a useful indicator for assessing the implications of climate policies for the security of supply. As climate policies become more stringent, CO2 index fall, and the S/D index increases. The magnitude of the changes in the two indices is not always similar however. Major falls in CO2 indices in the order of 20% for two scenarios with combined energy efficiency and renewable energy polices lead to less noteworthy improvements in the associated S/D indices. Nevertheless, this combination of policies leads to the greatest improvements in the security of supply

  10. Is the energy supply secure after 1985

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barthelt, K.

    1981-01-01

    At the centre of the remarks is the meeting of the demand for electricity in the Federal Republic of Germany, and furthermore nuclear energy for the base load and coal for the middle. In detail the author analyses the controversy which has already been around too long, and that is that of the continued extension of nuclear technology, and forcibly warning of the dangers which result from these delaying tactics. In this context, we are reminded of our dependence on imported oil and of the balance of payments' deficit resulting from the extremely sharply risen and still rising oil-prices. The strongly export-orientated German industry today not only produces with the highest wage unit-costs in the world, but also with energy which is too expensive, in particular compared to its competitors, for example France. Another just as important aspect is the endangering of promising technologies in which nuclear technology no doubt plays a big role. Highly qualified positions are in danger here. In conclusion the author appeals strongly to a energy policy of good sense in our country; it must be treated now so that no more valuable time is uselessly wasted. (orig./UA) [de

  11. Indicators of security of natural gas supply in Asia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cabalu, Helen

    2010-01-01

    Natural gas has become an increasingly valuable resource and a global commodity. The demand for it has significantly increased. Japan, Korea and Taiwan heavily rely on liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports for their gas supplies from Malaysia, Brunei, Indonesia, Australia and the Middle East. On the other hand, countries like Thailand and Singapore import gas via trans-border pipelines. Gas supply interruptions, volatile gas prices, transportation and distribution bottlenecks, and a growing reliance on imports over longer distances have renewed interest on gas security in Asia. This paper examines the relative vulnerability to natural gas supply disruptions of seven gas-importing countries in Asia for year 2008. Based on four indicators of security of gas supply, a composite gas supply security index is estimated as an overall indication of gas vulnerability for our sample countries. The results demonstrate that there are differences in the values of the overall indicator of gas vulnerability among countries and the assessment is useful in developing an effective strategy of natural gas supply security in countries in the Asian region. (author)

  12. An Early Warning System for Oil Security in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qingsong Wang

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The oil system security in a country or region will affect its sustainable development ability. China’s oil security has risen to the national strategic level. It is urgent to construct an early warning indicator system to reflect the oil security level accurately, as well as to diagnose and assess the oil system status effectively and put forward the corresponding proposals for ensuring oil security. An early warning indicator system of China’s oil system covering 23 sub-indicators from three aspects, i.e., resource security, market security and consumption security, was constructed using the SPSS (Statistical Product and Service Solutions factor analysis method. It shows that China’s oil system safety level has been seriously threatened and is generally declining. However, due to the strong introduction of energy policies and increasing energy utilization technology in recent years, the increasing proportion of new energy, renewable energy and oil substitutes eases the energy security threats. In response to complex oil security issues, the Chinese government needs to strengthen macroeconomic regulation and control at the policy level continuously, increase efforts to explore resource reserves, upgrade energy conservation and emission reduction technologies, develop new alternatives for oil products, and reduce the dependence on international oil imports.

  13. Measuring the security of external energy supply in the European Union

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Le Coq, Chloe [SITE, Stockholm School of Economics, P.O. Box 6501, Stockholm 11383 (Sweden); Paltseva, Elena [Department of Economics, Copenhagen University, Oester Farimagsgade 5, Building 26, 1353 Copenhagen (Denmark)

    2009-11-15

    The security of energy supply is one of the main objectives of EU energy policy. In this paper, we introduce an index designed to evaluate the short-term risks associated with the external supply of energy to the EU Member States. It combines measures of energy import diversification, political risks of the supplying country, risk associated with energy transit, and the economic impact of a supply disruption. We construct separate indexes for three primary energy types, oil, gas and coal, and demonstrate that Member States' levels of supply risk exposure differ across energies. Most other studies of this kind provide aggregate indexes combining different types of energy. Our results suggest that an aggregate approach could be misleading, at least for discussions of the short-term response to risks. We discuss the implications of our findings for the common energy policy. (author)

  14. Measuring the security of external energy supply in the European Union

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Le Coq, Chloe; Paltseva, Elena

    2009-01-01

    The security of energy supply is one of the main objectives of EU energy policy. In this paper, we introduce an index designed to evaluate the short-term risks associated with the external supply of energy to the EU Member States. It combines measures of energy import diversification, political risks of the supplying country, risk associated with energy transit, and the economic impact of a supply disruption. We construct separate indexes for three primary energy types, oil, gas and coal, and demonstrate that Member States' levels of supply risk exposure differ across energies. Most other studies of this kind provide aggregate indexes combining different types of energy. Our results suggest that an aggregate approach could be misleading, at least for discussions of the short-term response to risks. We discuss the implications of our findings for the common energy policy. (author)

  15. An experimental study on oil supply in a space bearing with an oil-impregnated retainer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Jianhai; Fan, Youwen; Wen, Shizhu

    1993-06-01

    Parched elastohydrodynamic lubrication (EHL) film thickness in a space ball bearing is measured by electrical capacitance and resistance, and parched transients of oil film and lubricant breakdown are observed. With different oil-impregnated polymer retainers, which are employed as oil supply resources, parched degradation is restricted to some degree, even lubricant breakdown disappears and a steady state of the oil film is produced. A long-term space bail bearing demands both the lowest driving torque and a steady state oil film, which depends on a strictly controlled oil supply from oil-impregnated retainers. The results of this experimental research describe the effects of oil supply by amounts of oil in retainers on parched EHL.

  16. Oil statistics 1976: supply and disposal

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1976-01-01

    Summary tables are included for the period 1960 to 1976. The detailed tables for 1976 cover production, supply and disposal; supply and disposal by product; imports by sources; imports from member countries; exports by destination; exports to member countries; consumption by end-use sectors; and supply and disposal of finished products by country (1975 and 1976). (DLC)

  17. Oil prices: demand and supply. Lesson plan

    OpenAIRE

    anonymous

    2005-01-01

    Upon completion of this lesson, students will be able to list the determinants of demand and supply, recognize which factors will cause demand curves or supply curves to shift, determine equilibrium using a demand/supply graph, and show the effects on price and quantity when equilibrium changes.

  18. Updated Hubbert curves analyze world oil supply

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ivanhoe, L.F.

    1996-01-01

    The question is not whether, but when, world crude oil production will start to decline, ushering in the permanent oil shock era. While global information for predicting this event is not so straightforward as the data M. King Hubbert used in creating his famous Hubbert Curve that predicted the US (Lower 48 states, or US/48) 1970 oil production peak, there are strong indications that most of the world's large exploration targets have now been found. Meanwhile, the earth's population is exploding along with the oil needs of Asia's developing nations. This article reviews Hubbert's original analyses on oil discovery and production curves for the US/48 and projects his proven methodology onto global oil discoveries and production as of 1992. The world's oil discovery curve peaked in 1962, and thence declined, as a Hubbert Curve predicts. However, global production was restricted after the 1973 Arab oil embargo. Otherwise, world production would have peaked in the mid-1990s. Two graphs show alternate versions of future global oil production

  19. The prospects for oil prices, supply and demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Al-Fathi, S.A.

    1991-01-01

    The major factors that have influenced price developments are briefly discussed. The future course of oil prices and the supply/demand fundamentals that are likely to influence them will be reviewed in the light of OPEC producers' quest for stability in the market and the maintenance of the role of oil in the energy spectrum. The environment and climate change debate is likely to influence development in the energy and oil markets for a long time to come. Its impact on oil demand is thus discussed, together with its implication for oil prices. (author)

  20. Nuclear safety and energy supply security: conflict or goal?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kutas, S.

    2006-01-01

    Energy generation and safety problems at the nuclear power plant have been analysed. Nuclear power plants are operated on the commercial basis in many countries today. Safety and security in energy generation and distribution is a complex problem. Energy supply reliability, security energy price and other issues should be co-ordinated and solved at the same time. Decentralisation and deregulation means new challenges for regulatory bodies and assurance of security. International co-operation in this field is very important. Western European Nuclear Regulators' Association (WENRA) consolidates efforts of regulatory bodies of European countries in order to harmonize approaches of nuclear safety. Nuclear Safety, and security of energy supply is the task and goal at the same time. (author)

  1. Security of Energy Supply - Indicators for Measuring Vulnerability and Risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heinrich, C.

    2010-01-01

    In an era of increasing globalization, secure and affordable energy supplies are an essential requirement for economies to work, much less develop and grow in the long term. The present study, Energy security of supply - indicators for measuring vulnerability and risk, develops a broad methodical assessment concept to raise awareness among policy makers and the public regarding the vulnerability of energy supplies to potential energy crises. It explores the different aspects of vulnerability, from the primary energy level to energy infrastructure (storage, networks, power plant parks) to the efficiency and cost of energy consumption for end users. The individual characteristics of the formal concept were quantitatively evaluated for several OECD regions (Germany, UK, Sweden, Poland, Italy, France and the US) using a comprehensive empirical database and reduced to a single indicator for assessing energy supply vulnerability. Part of the database comprises historical observations for the period between 1978 and 2007.(author).

  2. The security of supply and the international political problems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Petit, A.

    1981-01-01

    The paper deals with the problem of security of supply of electronuclear programs, especially under their political aspects. After a brief summary of the main historical events related to the subject: post-war position, Non Proliferation Treaty signature, London guidelines etc., the author underlines the fact that up to now, four countries only have been completely independent for their supplies. The elements of such independence are recalled as well as the special viewpoints of developing countries on the one hand, industrialized countries on the other hand. The final part analyses the means of reestablishing or reinforcing this security of supply. The classical commercial aspects such as preference for domestic producers, diversification of supplies and stockpiling are dealt with as well as with aspects more specific to nuclear energy, a technical one such as the possibility of developing breeders, and political ones, such as freedom to reexport, freedom to use imported materials in the frame of peaceful uses. (AF)

  3. Linking consumer energy efficiency with security of supply

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rutherford, J.P.; Scharpf, E.W.; Carrington, C.G.

    2007-01-01

    Most modern energy policies seek to achieve systematic ongoing incremental increases in consumer energy efficiency, since this contributes to improved security of supply, favourable environmental outcomes and increased economic efficiency. Yet realised levels of efficiency are typically well below the most cost-effective equilibrium due to variety of behavioural and organisational barriers, which are often linked to information constraints. In addition efficient users are normally unrewarded for collective benefits to system security and to the environment, thus reducing the incentives for energy consumers to invest in efficiency improvements. This paper examines the dichotomies and symmetries between supply- and demand-side solutions to energy security concerns and reviews opportunities to overcome barriers to improved consumer efficiency. A security market is identified as a mechanism to promote both demand- and supply-side investments that support electricity system security. Such a market would assist in setting the optimal quantity of reserves while achieving an efficient balance between supply- and demand-side initiatives. It would also help to smooth overall investment throughout the energy system by encouraging incremental approaches, such as distributed generation and demand-side alternatives where they provide competitive value. Although the discussion is applicable to energy systems in general, it focuses primarily on electricity in New Zealand

  4. Horizontal and vertical transmissions in the US oil supply chain

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kaufmann, Robert K.; Dees, Stephane; Mann, Micheal

    2009-01-01

    Oil prices, inventory levels, and utilization rates are influenced by changes that are transmitted horizontally and/or vertically through the energy supply chain. We define horizontal transmissions as changes that are generated by linkages among fuels at a similar stage of processing while vertical transmissions are changes that are generated by upstream/downstream linkages in the oil supply chain. Here, we investigate vertical and horizontal transmissions by estimating vector error correction models (VECMs) that represent relationships among the price of crude oil, US refinery utilization rates, US stocks of crude oil, US stocks of motor gasoline, the US price of motor gasoline, and the US price of a substitute fuel, natural gas. Causal relationships estimated from both weekly and quarterly observations indicate that the price of crude oil is an important gateway for disturbances to the oil supply chain. Impulse response functions indicate that disturbances to crude oil prices ripple down the oil supply chain and affect inventory behaviors, refinery utilization rates, and the price of motor gasoline, and are transmitted laterally to the natural gas market. (author)

  5. US oil dependency and energy security

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Noel, P.

    2002-12-01

    As an introduction to the seminar of the 30 May 2002 on the US oil dependency and energy security, the author analyzes the different factors which characterize the american petroleum market situation today. A special interest is thus done to the price increase of 1999-2000 due to the legislation evolution, the gas market tensions, the impact and the power of the OPEC on the international markets, the 11 September 2001 attempts and their political and military consequences. The author also discusses about three papers written after the seminar. (A.L.B.)

  6. Changing patterns in world oil supplies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Khane, A R; Bischoff, G

    1979-03-01

    The aim of the oil countries to industrialize in as short a period as possible is discussed in a dialogue with Dr. Khane. The topics of the oil price rises, the price rises for industrial plant, worldwide unemployment, the standard of living and the excess capacities in industrial countries are also discussed.

  7. The Security Impact of Oil Nationalization: Alternate Futures Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter Johnston

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available This article highlights the security impact of oil nationalization, develops and analyzes four energy security scenarios, and suggests options to reduce the potential negative impact of oil nationalization. In addition to the use of oil as a weapon, nationalization of oil can also lead to competition for scarce resources among states, facilitate the funding of terrorists or insurgents, contribute to destabilizing regional arms races, influence intra-state conflict, and sustain antagonistic political agendas.

  8. Optimal Allocation of Water Resources Based on Water Supply Security

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jianhua Wang

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Under the combined impacts of climate change and human activities, a series of water issues, such as water shortages, have arisen all over the world. According to current studies in Science and Nature, water security has become a frontier critical topic. Water supply security (WSS, which is the state of water resources and their capacity and their capacity to meet the demand of water users by water supply systems, is an important part of water security. Currently, WSS is affected by the amount of water resources, water supply projects, water quality and water management. Water shortages have also led to water supply insecurity. WSS is now evaluated based on the balance of the supply and demand under a single water resources condition without considering the dynamics of the varying conditions of water resources each year. This paper developed an optimal allocation model for water resources that can realize the optimal allocation of regional water resources and comprehensively evaluate WSS. The objective of this model is to minimize the duration of water shortages in the long term, as characterized by the Water Supply Security Index (WSSI, which is the assessment value of WSS, a larger WSSI value indicates better results. In addition, the simulation results of the model can determine the change process and dynamic evolution of the WSS. Quanzhou, a city in China with serious water shortage problems, was selected as a case study. The allocation results of the current year and target year of planning demonstrated that the level of regional comprehensive WSS was significantly influenced by the capacity of water supply projects and the conditions of the natural water resources. The varying conditions of the water resources allocation results in the same year demonstrated that the allocation results and WSSI were significantly affected by reductions in precipitation, decreases in the water yield coefficient, and changes in the underlying surface.

  9. Conference assesses world oil supply scene

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1992-01-01

    This paper reports that the Offshore Northern Seas conference heard a number of long term outlooks in Stavanger, Norway, last week, all with the same conclusion: the oil and gas industry needs massive investment if it is to match future demand. Norwegian Prime Minister Gro Harlem Bruntland built her scenario on a doubling of world population every 40 years. Mrs. Bruntland emphasized the growing dependence of the world economy on Middle East developments. Two thirds of the world's oil reserves are in the Persian Gulf region, she said, but only 28% of production comes from there. As the rest of the world depletes its reserves, dependence on Persian Gulf oil will grow

  10. Documentation of the Oil and Gas Supply Module (OGSM)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1998-01-01

    The purpose of this report is to define the objectives of the Oil and Gas Supply Model (OGSM), to describe the model`s basic approach, and to provide detail on how the model works. This report is intended as a reference document for model analysts, users, and the public. Projected production estimates of US crude oil and natural gas are based on supply functions generated endogenously within National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) by the OGSM. OGSM encompasses domestic crude oil and natural gas supply by both conventional and nonconventional recovery techniques. Nonconventional recovery includes enhanced oil recovery (EOR), and unconventional gas recovery (UGR) from tight gas formations, Devonian/Antrim shale and coalbeds. Crude oil and natural gas projections are further disaggregated by geographic region. OGSM projects US domestic oil and gas supply for six Lower 48 onshore regions, three offshore regions, and Alaska. The general methodology relies on forecasted profitability to determine exploratory and developmental drilling levels for each region and fuel type. These projected drilling levels translate into reserve additions, as well as a modification of the production capacity for each region. OGSM also represents foreign trade in natural gas, imports and exports by entry region. Foreign gas trade may occur via either pipeline (Canada or Mexico), or via transport ships as liquefied natural gas (LNG). These import supply functions are critical elements of any market modeling effort.

  11. Energy security: it's not only oil. Increasing and replacing oil resources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mandil, C.; Appert, O.

    2006-01-01

    The security of energy supplies is once again right at the top of the list of energy policy subjects, following the political tensions in the Middle East, as well as major electricity failures of recent years, the hurricanes of August and September 2005 and the gas dispute between Russia and Ukraine. Even if the system of strategic oil stocks managed by the International Energy Agency has proved to be efficient, today keywords for guarding against the risks are diversification (of energy, of its sources, its suppliers and of its supply lines) and flexibility. Dialogue with the producers is essential. It will be difficult to find substitutes for hydrocarbons (oil and natural gas) in the short and medium terms to meet the needs of transport and for the petrochemical industry; they are likely to represent, in the order of two-thirds of the total demand for the world energy by the year 2030. In order to replace oil resources, taking account of all the risks of climate change, technological innovation will play a major role and should allow us to benefit from today potentially unreliable hydrocarbon supplies for many more years, allowing our society sufficient time to develop other sources of energy, and to do so at a cost that is acceptable to everybody. (authors)

  12. Canadian crude oil production and supply forecast 2006-2020

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2006-05-01

    In order to enable members to plan for pipeline capacity requirements for transporting Canadian crude oil to markets, the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP) 2006-2020 crude oil production and supply forecast provides a long-range outlook of Canadian crude oil production. It provides a forecast of supply and demand for both western and eastern Canada. Because offshore eastern oil production does not rely on pipeline access to reach markets, the analysis primarily focuses on western Canadian production and supply. Over the next fifteen years, Alberta's oil sands provides the main source of growth in the western Canadian production forecast. A survey of CAPP members encompassing all oil sands projects was conducted. Survey responses reflect both planned and envisioned projects over a fifteen year period, although some of the envisioned projects have been risk adjusted by modifying the potential completion schedules for projects which are deemed more uncertain. Detailed tables are provided on forecast data. Three sets of tables are included to show production, two supply scenarios and a high level assessment of the need for incremental pipeline capacity. The report also discusses delays and risk factors that could slow the pace of oil sands development and the corresponding increase in production being forecast in the base case. 16 tabs

  13. Energy supply security and geopolitics : A European perspective

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Correlje, A; van der Linde, C

    The security of energy supply to the EU is examined in the context of two storylines. Markets and Institutions exemplifies an economically and politically integrated, multilateral world with effective institutions and markets, Regions and Empires involves a world broken up in rival political and

  14. Panorama 2009 - oil supply and demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2008-01-01

    The year 2008 will probably go down in the annals of the oil industry along with the oil shocks of 1973 and 1980, the counter-shock of 1986 and the demand surge of 2004. The price spikes observed until the month of July were unusually high, followed by an unusually abrupt, steep decrease. This is the result of the short-sightedness shown by all market players, most of whom failed to anticipate the economic downturn

  15. Nuclear Option for a Secure and Sustainable Energy Supply

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kolundzija, V.; Mesarovic, M.

    2002-01-01

    Present energy policy is required to ensure a balance between security of supply, competitiveness and environmental requirements. Recent changes involved by deregulation and liberalization of electricity and natural gas markets even strengthen such a policy. However, dependency on external energy sources carries risks that have to be managed since a large proportion of both oil and gas reserves are found in politically unstable regions. Electrical energy is a fundamental prerequisite for a civilized life and an essential commodity, but it cannot be stored and this restricts the extent to which there can be a real free market for electricity. Therefore, relying on imports of electricity to a large extent may prove unsecure because this requires a true, completely open market in which the opportunities for cross-border trade are effective and balanced and transport connections are adequate. This is equally applied to the countries in the South-Eastern Europe, despite very good prospects for development of the regional electricity market there. In this regard, the use of nuclear energy has not any risk associated with external dependency because there are abundant quantities of uranium available world-wide from many diverse sources. The inherent mitigation of supply risk associated with the use of uranium should act as an incentive to the further use of nuclear energy. In addition, already very large stocks of fuel assemblies and fuel-making materials available, especially when these are measured in terms of power generating capacity per year at current production rates. It is, therefore, very important for any country to recognize such strategic aspect of nuclear energy when addressing the issue of security of power supply. Nuclear option is in a unique position to restore its original role of the main source of energy with an increased attention paid to the security of electricity supply as well as regulatory changes affecting fossil fuels, particularly with due

  16. The overseas acquisitions and equity oil shares of Chinese national oil companies: A threat to the West but a boost to China's energy security?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang Zhongxiang

    2012-01-01

    This paper argues that both China and the Western countries need to de-politicize China's global quest for energy security. The Western politicians need to recognize that their rhetoric in relation to China's efforts to secure energy supplies overseas has done nothing but intensify China's fear that they might seek to deny China's access to the oil it needs for the development. China needs to reconsider its stance of distrusting global oil markets and to recognize that the reliance on aggressive acquisitions of overseas oil fields and equity oil production has been of little help in strengthening its energy security. Given that China's energy security depends increasingly and deeply on the stability of global oil markets and reliable and growing oil supplies to the market, China shares with other major oil importing countries profound common interests in maintaining and strengthening the stability of global oil markets and reducing the chance of potential disruptions to oil supply and the resulting damaging oil price shocks.

  17. Security of the electricity supply. The area of conflict between profitability and environmental compatibility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Praktiknjo, Aaron

    2013-01-01

    The scope of the book is on the one hand support for the power industry defining investment and sales strategies that intend optimum supply security in the view of the customer and on the other hand the information for energy and environmental politicians demonstrating the conflict of objectives. The following issues are covered: technical and organizational aspects of electricity supply, theoretical background of the security of electricity supply, security of supply for economic sections, security of electricity supply for private households: theoretical microeconomic approach, security of electricity supply for private households: method of defined preferences, security of electricity supply in the context of climate protection and nuclear phase-out.

  18. Security of Gas Supply in the Countries of the Visegrád Group

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michał Tarnawski

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available In spite of efforts on the part of the European Union to promote renewable sources of energy, conventional resources such as oil, natural gas and coal still dominate in individual EU energy mixes. With the rising costs of resources, their uneven distribution and limited supply, each state is busy trying to ensure its energy security. Secure and stable supply of energy resources has becoming the main preoccupation, especially in the countries of Central and Eastern Europe. Over the recent years, the Visegrád Group states have made particularly intensive efforts to ensure their supply of natural gas. The unstable political situation in the east of Europe as well as changes in natural gas markets (shale gas revolution in the USA, increased importance of LNG gave rise to new challenges when it comes to ensuring gas security, but also new opportunities to become independent of eastern imports. It is precisely the fact of being dependent on natural gas imported from Russia that determines the situation of Visegrád Group states. The present paper tries to analyse the situation in Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Hungary in terms of security of their natural gas supply.

  19. Future oil supply to the Northeast United States

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bronheim, H.

    1976-06-01

    The Northeast consumed some 4.6 million bbls/day of petroleum products in 1972. Nearly 63 percent of that supply was of foreign origin, making the Northeast the single largest oil-importing region in the nation. The remainder of its supply originated mainly in states on the Gulf of Mexico. The phasing out of coal as a major utility boiler fuel and curtailment of natural gas sales to the Northeast have led to the rapid increase in the use of petroleum products. Nationwide oil production reached a peak of 11.3 million bbls/day in 1970 and has been declining yearly ever since. The Northeast in particular has led the movement to foreign imports because of its coastal location, its distance from domestic sources, the competitive pricing of foreign oils, and because of environmental considerations. Under various assumptions of total U.S. reserves of oil (discovered and undiscovered) coupled to alternate schedules of national resource development, projections of crude oil production were made for the years 1985 and 2000. The projections indicate that even under optimistic conditions crude oil production will be declining in the post-1985 period, if not earlier. The scenarios consistently indicate that the Northeast's regional share will be heavily constrained by 1985, and rapidly declining thereafter. On the other hand, production of oil worldwide will concentrate further in the hands of the Arab OPEC nations who are likely to exercise growing control over pricing and the international supply of crude oil.

  20. Market design and supply security in imperfect power markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schwenen, Sebastian

    2014-01-01

    Supply security in imperfect power markets is modelled under different market designs. In a uniform price auction for electricity with two firms, strategic behaviour may leave firms offering too few capacities and unable to supply all realized demand. Market design that relies on capacity markets increases available generation capacities for sufficiently high capacity prices and consequently decreases energy prices. However, equilibrium capacity prices are non-competitive. Capacity markets can increase security of supply, but cannot mitigate market power, which is exercised in the capacity market instead of the energy market. - Highlights: • I model two power generating firms who compete to serve stochastic demand in a multiunit uniform price auction. • In equilibrium, blackout probabilities can arise through capacity withholding. • Capacity mechanisms decrease capacity withholding and the expected energy price. • With dominant firms, capacity mechanisms are only effective if capacity prices are non-competitive and include a mark-up for leaving the energy-only market optimum

  1. Can reserve additions in mature crude oil provinces attenuate supply-side peak oil?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Okullo, Samuel; Reynes, Frederic

    2010-09-15

    More often, oil supply has been modeled on the basis of resource availability and demand. The impact of strategy between oil producers has largely been ignored or overly simplified. In this paper, we formulate a model that embodies a weak and strong OPEC for varied rates of reserve additions. With this economic equilibrium model which has the capability to generate a supply side peak in oil production, we show that although reserves of conventional crude oil may seem abundant. OPEC has the ability to lead to substantial crude oil reserve depletion in non-OPEC countries by 2050 given likely depletion rates.

  2. EU Security of Gas Supplies: Solidarity Runs Through the Pipeline

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aoun, Marie-Claire; Rutten, Daan

    2016-05-01

    The ongoing efforts to lessen the European Union's (EU) vulnerability to gas shortages by adopting internal measures were triggered by the Ukrainian gas disputes of 2006 and 2009. The latter deprived several EU Member States of 20% of their gas supplies (30% of imports) for 14 days in the middle of winter due to tensions with Russia. This prompted Member States in 2010 to adopt a Regulation for the Security of Gas Supply, replacing the skeletal 2004 Directive. Since 2014, tensions have increased significantly between the EU and Russia, the block's main gas supplier. Although this has not led to any gas supply disruptions in Europe, and this time Ukraine has been able to revert to reverse flows, national production and storage withdrawals to replace the Russian gas flows, there remains a perceived elevated risk of gas supply disruptions to the EU, especially by certain Member States. This led the European Commission (EC) to publish its first-ever European Energy Security Strategy in May 2014, which was followed by the Gas Stress Tests of October 2014. In February 2015, the EC published its Energy Union Strategy Framework, which was strongly motivated by energy security concerns. In that context, the EC announced a series of proposals for its gas and electricity markets in 2016 and 2017, among which was the 'Sustainable Energy Security Package' (hereafter: Package). This Package, published in February 2016, consists of four proposals. Two of them have a legislative nature, namely a Regulation for Security of Gas Supply and a Decision on Intergovernmental Agreements on energy. The two non-legislative proposals are strategy papers dealing respectively with LNG and Gas Storage, and Heating and Cooling. The purpose of this paper is to focus on the proposed Regulation and to offer considerations on some of its provisions, in particular on the move from the national to the regional level of cooperation and on the legislative formalization of solidarity. (author)

  3. Supply and demand in the oil industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Favennec, J.P.

    2000-01-01

    The year 1998 was characterised a lower level of demand for energy in general and in articular for oil due to the Asian crisis. Within such a context; efforts at reducing production were not sufficient to prevent prices falling to their lowest levels since the first oil crisis. In 1999, we saw a complete reversal of this trend, with consumption back on a growth path and the new cuts in production agreed by OPEC being firmly implemented. These two factors have led to sustained increases in the price of oil, which, at the end of 1999, reached levels considered very high. Future prices will depend upon the durable nature of economic upturn and above all on continued discipline among the producer nations. (authors)

  4. Canadian heavy oil supply and demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eynon, G.

    1997-01-01

    The wealth of business opportunities presented by Canada's vast heavy oil and bitumen resources in the face of declining reserves of light and medium crude were discussed. It was argued that Western Canadian producers, as a group, appear to lack the appreciation of the impacts of midstream and downstream sectors of the heavy oil business. The vertical integration of the heavy oil industry in Venezuela was cited as an example of the direction that Canadian producers should travel to achieve the control over their own destiny through ownership of the means of transportation, refining and marketing that is commensurate with their growing importance in the energy sector. The opportunities are great, but long-term success will require a sophisticated and integrated business approach. 4 figs

  5. The Study on Global Oil and Gas Supply and Demand undertaken by the National Petroleum Council

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Slutz, James

    2007-07-01

    The National Petroleum Council (NPC) Study on Global Oil and Gas is one of the most comprehensive studies on global oil and gas supply and demand projections ever undertaken to date. This study comprises approximately 250 experts from industry, government, research institutions, academia, energy ministries from around the world, national oil companies, and non-government organizations. The NPC study team has collected and analyzed global data on supply and demand trends through the year 2030. While other studies have examined the economic, environmental, security and geo-policy implications of the oil and gas supply and demand picture, this study examines all three political priorities simultaneously. The multi-dimensional foundations of the policy recommendations, and the diverse expertise of study group members, results in findings which are truly unique, and separate this study from numerous previous studies on global oil and gas supply and demand. Although key findings and policy recommendations will not be released prior to the study's release in June of 2007, the following paper provides the scope of work and the detailed project plan that will result in an energy outlook that is differentiated from all recent studies.

  6. Modeling Turkey’s future LNG supply security strategy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Efe Biresselioglu, Mehmet; Hakan Demir, Muhittin; Kandemir, Cansu

    2012-01-01

    Turkey was among those countries which decided to increase its natural gas consumption in the 1990s, due to its relative low cost and lack of impact on the environment. However, a heavy dependence on imports, from Algeria, Qatar and Nigeria, respectively, creates a threat to energy security, both in terms of source and supply diversity. Accordingly, we follow an analytical approach to identify the accuracy of our assumption, considering the current economic, political and security risk. To this end, we formulate and solve a mixed integer programming model that determines the optimal sourcing strategy for Turkey’s increasing LNG demand. This model demonstrates a number of alternative policy options for LNG supply. Furthermore, we consider that increasing the proportion of LNG in the overall gas supply will contribute to the aim of improving Turkey’s level of energy security. - Highlights: ► Turkey’s best policy option is to increase the share of LNG. ► Turkey’s main suppliers of LNG will be Algeria, Egypt, Nigeria, and Trinidad and Tobago. ► Norway, Libya, and Oman contribute to the supply with rather smaller shares. ► With high risk scenario Algeria, Egypt, Nigeria and Libya will not be suppliers. ► Oman and Qatar will cover; even though they are high-cost suppliers.

  7. Energy supply security and geopolitics: A European perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Correlje, Aad; Linde, Coby van der

    2006-01-01

    The security of energy supply to the EU is examined in the context of two storylines. Markets and Institutions exemplifies an economically and politically integrated, multilateral world with effective institutions and markets. Regions and Empires involves a world broken up in rival political and economic blocks, competing for resources and markets via political, economic and military power. It is shown that these storylines have a significant impact on the development of the energy market, on the way in which energy supply may be secured and on the effect and applicability of the several types of instruments available. The current EU is geared towards enlargement and a deepening of economic integration, based on the tenets of the post-1945 multilateral world system. The present world tends towards Regions and Empires and suggests that the EU may have to reorient its energy security policy. Energy policy must become an integral part of EU external trade and foreign relations and security policy. The EU should develop its own strategy, actively investing in dialogues with producer countries in the Persian Gulf and Africa and with Russia. Sustainable prosperity and governance in these regions will support EU energy security

  8. Measuring energy security. Can the United States achieve oil independence?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Greene, David L.

    2010-01-01

    Stochastic simulation of the direct economic costs of oil dependence in an uncertain future is proposed as a useful metric of oil dependence. The market failure from which these costs arise is imperfect competition in the world oil market, chiefly as a consequence of the use of market power by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) cartel. Oil dependence costs can be substantial. It is estimated that oil dependence costs to the US economy in 2008 will exceed $500 billion. Other costs, such as military expenditures or foreign policy constraints are deemed to be largely derivative of the actual or potential economic costs of oil dependence. The use of quantifiable economic costs as a security metric leads to a measurable definition of oil independence, or oil security, which can be used to test the ability of specific policies to achieve oil independence in an uncertain future. (author)

  9. Strategic gas reserves and EU security-of-supply

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Austvik, Ole Gunnar

    2003-01-01

    The author attempts to distinguish a country's ''normal'' dependence on imports of a commodity from sensitivity and vulnerability dependence. We will then discuss how the risk for disruptions in supplies may be viewed as an externality in imports and, thus, consumption of gas. The model presented demonstrates how environmental externalities as a result of increased domestic production can be evaluated together with the security-of-supply problem. Finally, it is discussed how gas reserves can be used as a means in an emergency situation

  10. Security of supply of uranium as nuclear fuel

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guzman Gomez-Selles, L.

    2011-01-01

    When we talk about Sustainability related to nuclear fuel, the first concern that comes to our mind is about the possibility of having guarantees on the uranium supply for a sufficient period of time. In this paper we are going to analyze the last Reserves data published by the OCD's Red Book and also how the Reserve concept in fully linked to the uranium price. Additionally, it is demonstrated how the uranium Security of supply is guaranteed for, at least, the next 100 years. finally, some comments are made regarding other sources of nuclear fuel as it is the uranium coming from the phosphates or the thorium. (Author)

  11. What is behind the increase in oil prices? Analyzing oil consumption and supply relationship with oil price

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gallo, Andres; Mason, Paul; Shapiro, Steve; Fabritius, Michael

    2010-01-01

    The continuing increases in oil prices have renewed the argument over the real culprits behind these movements. The growth in demand for oil in international markets, especially from the United States and China, is often identified as the main source of consumption pressure on prices, and thus the upward trend in oil prices. This paper uses unit root tests with two endogenous breaks to analyze the characteristics of oil prices, production, and consumption for several countries. By taking into account structural breaks, we find that many countries' oil consumption and oil prices are stationary, while other countries' are not. We also perform causality tests to determine the direction of any possible relationship between oil price and oil consumption and production. Our statistical analysis reveals that production variables cause oil prices, while oil prices tend to cause consumption. As a result, we claim that the blame for the recent fluctuations in oil prices is more appropriately associated with supply factors, not consumption influences. (author)

  12. A Canadian perspective on the supply costs, production and economic impacts from oil sands development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McColl, D.; Masri, M.

    2008-01-01

    This article provided a synopsis of oil sands research recently conducted at the Canadian Energy Research Institute (CERI). The production profiles and capital expenditures that CERI has projected for oil sands projects were explored along with the macroeconomic benefits associated with oil sands development. In addition to rising capital and operating costs, bitumen producers are challenged by labour shortages and environmental concerns. However, CERI warrants continued growth in production from the oil sands industry, given the current high price state of the global oil market and security of supply concerns from oil importing countries. This article also provided background information and analysis to assess the implications of future development. The projected growth in the oil sands industry creates demands for infrastructure, housing, health care, education, and business services. The economic impacts were measured at the local, provincial, national and global levels in terms of changes in gross domestic product; changes in employment; and, changes in government revenues. It was concluded that with continued investment and development, Alberta's oil sands resource is expected to continue to produce oil for decades, and would eventually achieve 6 MMbpd production. 8 refs., 3 tabs., 10 figs

  13. Transparency and monitoring of security and adequacy of supply

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Newbery, D.; Von der Fehr, N.H.; Van Damme, E.

    2003-08-01

    The long-run performance of the electricity market relies on the behaviour of individual market participants, including investors (incumbents as well as entrants), consumers, traders and the financial community. In order for these market participants to make rational economic decisions they should have access to reliable information on the fundamental drivers for the market and how these evolve. Improving access to information is particularly important for decisions that involve long-term commitments, such as investment in new generation facilities. The Market Surveillance Committee (MSC) has been asked to advise on how market transparency can be increased in order to improve supply security and adequacy. In this report we discuss the need for transparency from the point of view of the market participants. We also present which information is made public in other electricity markets. We point out that, in addition to increasing transparency for market participants, there is also a need for adequate market monitoring by authorities. It may be necessary to change current rules and regulations to ensure that information is made available to both the relevant authorities and the market. From an economic efficiency point of view, security of supply is optimised if, at the margin, the costs of reducing forced rationing are balanced against the benefits of such reductions (including lowering of social costs associated with major interruptions to power supplies). Adequacy of supply is optimised if the costs of capacity expansions are aligned with the willingness to pay for the associated increases in supply capacity. To assess optimal supply security and adequacy, one would therefore need to monitor: the value of supply security to consumers, or inversely, the cost of forced rationing, e.g. as 'value of lost load' estimates; the frequency with which involuntary load-shedding is expected to occur on the basis of system characteristics, including statistical data and

  14. Designing indicators of long-term energy supply security

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jansen, J.C.; Van Arkel, W.G.; Boots, M.G.

    2004-01-01

    To our knowledge, so far amazingly little research work has been undertaken to construct meaningful indicators of long-run energy supply security for a particular nation or region. Currently, in addressing energy supply security, policy makers tend to emphasise short-term supply disruptions. In contrast, this pre-study accords with the broader Sustainability Outlook in considering the long-term perspective. This report starts with taking stock, in a concise way, of the official EU energy outlook and issues related to the opportunities to administer changes in the energy mix at the level of major energy use categories. Then a brief survey of relevant literature is made on long-term strategies to ensure survival of systems - be it biological, social, etc. - in an environment largely characterised by high uncertainty and a lot of unchartered territory. We found the work of Andrew Stirling very inspiring in this context. Based on his work and considering the limitations of the present research activity, we retained the Shannon index as the best 'simple' indicator of diversity. In the core of the report, the Shannon index is elaborated into four indicators of long-term energy supply security. Stepwise, additional aspects of long-term energy supply security are introduced. These aspects are: Diversification of energy sources in energy supply; Diversification of imports with respect to imported energy sources; Long-term political stability in regions of origin; The resource base in regions of origin, including the home region/country itself. After small adjustments to allow for data availability, these indicators were applied to the reference year 2030 of four long-term scenarios with data of base year 1995 and projections for underlying variables provided by the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (MNP). Preliminary interpretation of the results suggests the usefulness of the indicators presented in this report. A second activity undertaken in this report was

  15. The oil price and non-OPEC supplies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Seymour, A.

    1991-01-01

    The design of any effective oil pricing policy by producers depends on a knowledge of the nature and complexity of supply responses. This book examines the development of non-OPEX oil reserves on a field-by-filed basis to determine how much of the increase in non-OPEC production could be attributable to the price shocks and how much was unambiguously due to decisions and developments that preceded the price shocks. Results are presented in eighteen case-studies of non-OPEC producers. This study will be of interest to economists and planners specializing in the upstream and to policy makers both in oil producing and consuming countries

  16. Security of energy supply. Facts and possibilities for action

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hake, Juergen-Friedrich; Rath-Nagel, Stefan

    2015-01-01

    The energy infrastructure of a country has a decisive influence on the standard of living there, the competitiveness of its economy and its inner political stability. In the debate about the energy transition in Germany attention is primarily being focused on the future energy mix and how it might change, but in particular on the technical challenges involved as well as the costs of the transition as a whole. Given the growing instability that will arise in the electricity networks in the process of transition, as well as the problems that could occur with the supply of natural gas as a result of the Ukraine crisis, the issue of security of energy supply in Germany (as well as Europe) needs to be addressed anew: Is the energy supply at risk? What sources are available at home and abroad, and what leeway is there for changing the procurement mix?

  17. Petro-Canada's oil sands supply outlook

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sangster, B.

    2004-01-01

    A report by the Canadian Energy Research Institute suggests that by 2017, production from the Athabasca Oil Sands could reach as high as 3.5 million barrels per day (mbpd), or it could be as low as 1.1 mbpd. This uncertainty in production is due to several variables such as capital costs, project size, reservoir quality, pipeline capacity and workforce productivity. Other factors that influence production include marginal economics, markets and prices, investor confidence, stakeholder concerns and the Kyoto Protocol. The production level that will be achieved by 2017 will depend on how industry address these emerging issues. The author discussed these issues in detail with particular reference to the approach that Petro-Canada has taken to address the challenges. Suggestions to reduce the potential impacts of these challenges were also presented. tabs., figs

  18. Energy market and investment - political economy of supply security in the market of energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Leban, R.

    2005-01-01

    A market structure that appears to be adapted to achieving a supply security purpose in the sectors of oil power and gas, is an organisation where upstream energy markets include industrial players of adequate sizes involved downstream and where futures exchanges prevail at prices translating anticipations on 'basics' since spot markets are more of adjustment markets. Policy weighs hugely on those markets. The extra competition lately instilled in the electrical and gas markets in developed countries results in no decrease, as complicated exchange rules need to be thought up and the market power needs to be monitored. Political intervention is also carried out in the name of environmental policies, in a strong interaction with the operation of the said markets and therefore with a not insignificant risk of disruption. The oil market is a highly political one, since the key to exchanges, i.e. access to primary resources, is played between producing countries and huge oil and gas companies close to consuming countries. There is a strong temptation in the electrical sector, to add security policies in order to prevail over the market. Gas, which is oil upstream and electrical downstream, requires, in consuming countries, a delicate balance of policies to support operators as buyers and to control the same operators as players of the gas- gas competition. The prognosis on the market's ability to provide safe supply efficiently to citizens if security policies are implemented is rather good in areas where demand is moderately growing and networks are developed. It is however not as good in areas where there are high needs for production and transport investments, i.e. in countries that are developing now, and will be...in Europe soon. (author)

  19. Assessing energy supply security: Outage costs in private households

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Praktiknjo, Aaron J.; Hähnel, Alexander; Erdmann, Georg

    2011-01-01

    The objective of this paper is to contribute to the topic of energy supply security by proposing a Monte Carlo-based and a survey based model to analyze the costs of power interruptions. Outage cost estimations are particularly important when deciding on investments to improve supply security (e.g. additional transmission lines) in order to compare costs to benefits. But also other policy decisions on measures that have direct or indirect consequences for the supply security (e.g. a phasing out of nuclear energy) need to be based on results from outage cost estimations. The main focus of this paper lies with residential consumers, but the model is applied to commercial, industrial and governmental consumers as well. There are limited studies that have approached the problem of evaluating outage cost. When comparing the results of these studies, they often display a high degree of diversification. As consumers have different needs and dependencies towards the supply of electricity because of varying circumstances and preferences, a great diversity in outage cost is a logical consequence. To take the high degree of uncertainties into account, a Monte Carlo simulation was conducted in this study for the case of private households in Germany. - Highlights: ► A macroeconomic model to assess outage cost is proposed. ► Possibilities for substitution are considered by analyzing individual preferences for the time-use. ► Uncertainties are taken into account by using a Monte Carlo simulation. ► This study reveals the distribution of outage costs to different electricity consumers. ► Implications for energy policy decisions are discussed.

  20. Security of supply in Competitive Electricity Markets. Conference proceedings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2005-06-01

    A stable and reliable electricity supply is a fundamental factor in our modern economy and many people think that the deregulated market is a threat to this - or at least, they think that there is a need for a new type of regulation. Others believe that the threat to security of supply comes from short sighted politicians rather than from competitive markets. Regulation in order to increase security of supply is a threat to well functioning competitive markets - not the other way around. To give an overview of different regulatory models and to discuss each model's particular pros and cons, ELFORSK (Swedish Electrical Utilities RandD Company) on behalf of the Swedish electricity industry, the national grid company Svenska Kraftnaet and the Regulating Authority has arranged this two-day Conference. This conference once again gathers people from many different parts of the world to exchange ideas and experiences from their respective area of operations. Our belief is that people from the industry, the governments as well as from the academic world will find these two days a useful opportunity to build new relationships and gain new insights into the topics covered. There are three main topics for the Conference: Experiences from Different Markets; The Value of Security of Supply; Ongoing research projects. The members of the Conference Committee are impressed by the quality of the papers presented at this Conference and we believe that this is a source of knowledge that will influence decisions makers in many countries. (11 papers presented at the conference have been indexed separately. Powerpoint presentations have not been indexed but are available from the Market Design homrpage)

  1. Oil supply on demand: Oil pumps in serial application; Bedarfsgerechte Oelversorgung: Regeloelpumpen im Serieneinsatz

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lamparski, C. [S H W Automotive GmbH und Co. KG, Bad Schussenried (Germany)

    2007-07-01

    Usually, constant displacement oil pumps are used for the oil supply of combustion engines. Gerotor, helical or spur gear pumps or vane pumps are the most common solutions. The disadvantage of the mentioned design is the oil delivery as function of pump speed, independent from the engine needs. Variability of oil delivery for reduction of hydraulic losses is the logical consequence. The first variable displacement oil pump which has fulfilled this requirement is the Internal Regulated Oil Pump (IRP). The mass production of this oil pump started in 2002. The solution for outer gear pumps and vane cells followed shortly. The following contribution gives a summary of different technical concepts for adjusting of oil delivery, beginning with pump pressure as a leading value till map regulation and its transformation in mass production products. (orig.)

  2. Canadian oil sands : supply and potential for market growth

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Crandall, G.

    2004-01-01

    Canadian oil sands recoverable reserves rank second only to Saudi Arabia and present enormous potential, particularly through technological gains. This paper discussed the market potential for oil sands both globally and in North America. It was estimated that oil sands production would eventually surpass declining conventional production, increasing from 42 per cent of Western supply in 2002 to 78 per cent in 2015. Recoverable reserves were an estimated 174 billion barrels, with cumulative production at 4 billion barrels between 1967 to 2003. Statistics of U.S. and Canadian markets for crude oil were presented to the year 2020. A flow chart of oil sands products and market outlets was presented, as well as details of existing and potential markets for Canadian crude oil. Oil sands product dispositions were outlined, with the prediction that Asia may emerge as an incremental market. World crude oil production statistics were presented by type. World residual supply and demand estimates were presented, including details of conversion capacity and requirements for residual processing capacity in refineries and field upgraders. American refinery feedstocks were presented by type, with the identification of an increase in heavy crude runs. It was noted that recent pricing provided a strong incentive to add refining conversion capacity to process heavy oil. An outline of a study completed for the Alberta government and industry was presented, in which upgrading to light synthetic crude was determined as a base case. The value added to process bitumen beyond upgrading was discussed in relation to the upgrading of American refineries to process bitumen blends and synthetic crude. Potential cases for upgrading bitumen were presented, along with a comparison of capital costs. An overall economic comparison of projects was provided. Various measures to maximize markets for oil sands products in Alberta were presented. It was suggested that U.S. markets should absorb more new

  3. Cost of Oil and Biomass Supply Shocks under Different Biofuel Supply Chain Configurations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Uria Martinez, Rocio [ORNL; Leiby, Paul Newsome [ORNL; Brown, Maxwell L. [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL)

    2018-04-01

    This analysis estimates the cost of selected oil and biomass supply shocks for producers and consumers in the light-duty vehicle fuel market under various supply chain configurations using a mathematical programing model, BioTrans. The supply chain configurations differ by whether they include selected flexibility levers: multi-feedstock biorefineries; advanced biomass logistics; and the ability to adjust ethanol content of low-ethanol fuel blends, from E10 to E15 or E05. The simulated scenarios explore market responses to supply shocks including substitution between gasoline and ethanol, substitution between different sources of ethanol supply, biorefinery capacity additions or idling, and price adjustments. Welfare effects for the various market participants represented in BioTrans are summarized into a net shock cost measure. As oil accounts for a larger fraction of fuel by volume, its supply shocks are costlier than biomass supply shocks. Corn availability and the high cost of adding biorefinery capacity limit increases in ethanol use during gasoline price spikes. During shocks that imply sudden decreases in the price of gasoline, the renewable fuel standard (RFS) biofuel blending mandate limits the extent to which flexibility can be exercised to reduce ethanol use. The selected flexibility levers are most useful in response to cellulosic biomass supply shocks.

  4. The importance of North Sea oil to European energy supply

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bauw, R. De

    1992-01-01

    There is no doubt about the importance of North Sea oil to the energy supply of the European Community. One might however be used to it and forget about the nature and the size of its impact on our economies. Firstly, this paper intends to estimate this impact - past, present and future. Secondly, a more qualitative approach will explore possible consequences of the implementation of the internal market for North Sea oil. Thirdly, the assistance given by the Community to innovative technologies which enabled North Sea oil to contribute, under better economic conditions and within a safer environment, to our supply is recalled. And finally, some remarks on energy policy form an EC perspective, are offered. (author)

  5. Crude oil and natural gas supplies and demands for Denmark

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mackay, R.M.; Probert, S.D.

    1995-01-01

    A novel technique for forecasting the supply and extraction life-cycle of a depleting fossil fuel resource has been developed. The supply side utilises a 'skewed-normal production-profile' model that yields a better representation than earlier approaches. A simple model for extrapolating crude oil and natural gas demands has also been devised, based on the so called 'modified logit function'. The predicted crude oil and natural gas balances for the period up to AD 2010 indicate the disparity between indigenous production and future consumption for Denmark. These forecasts depend on current estimates of remaining oil and gas reserves. It will consequently be necessary to revise periodically the present projections as more reliable reserve estimates become available. (author)

  6. 76 FR 1521 - Security Zone: Fleet Industrial Supply Center Pier, San Diego, CA

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-01-11

    ...-AA87 Security Zone: Fleet Industrial Supply Center Pier, San Diego, CA AGENCY: Coast Guard, DHS. ACTION... Diego, CA. The existing security zone is around the former Fleet Industrial Supply Center Pier. The security zone encompasses all navigable waters within 100 feet of the former Fleet Industrial Supply Center...

  7. Alberta's conventional oil supply: How much? How long?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heath, M.

    1992-01-01

    To assess the future conventional crude oil supply potential in Alberta, a modelling system was designed with the capacity to determine the fraction of existing and potential reserves which could prove technically, economically and/or commercially viable over time. The reference case analysis described assumed constant real oil prices and fiscal burdens, capital and operating costs. Reserve additions from new pool discoveries were summed with reserves from existing pools to arrive at an estimate of the potential supply of established reserves in each play area. The established reserves from all plays were then totalled to provide the provincial conventional oil resource potential. Alberta's recoverable conventional crude oil reserves were shown to be declining at about 2 percent per year. However, even with declining recoverable reserves and relatively low prices, the results of the study indicated that the conventional oil industry remained a major revenue generator for the province and would continue to be so over the next 15 to 20 years. Improved operating efficiencies, cost reductions, reasonable prices and cooperation between industry and government were shown to be necessary to assure the continued viability of Alberta's conventional oil industry. figs., tabs., 11 refs

  8. Oil supply and demand - Panorama 2008

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2008-01-01

    The crude price variations of the last five years might be compared to the movements of a ball bouncing in an elevator. At regular intervals, a new high is reached, setting a record soon to be broken in turn. For each 'bounce', we might try to identify the conjuncture reasons responsible for pushing prices upwards, but there is always another new high, because the elevator has not finished going up. The price of US$ 100/bbl was reached 'by accident' at the beginning of 2008. Prices will stay high in future, and this record will inevitably be left behind for good in the next few years. Supply, limited in its nature, is inadequate in the face of needs infinite in their desires. This has placed the crude price on a growth path whose direction could only be changed, it would seem, by massive development of replacement fuels or very large gains in energy efficiency. That is, unless the world economy were hit by a major economic crisis

  9. Security of electricity supply at the generation level: Problem analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rodilla, P.; Batlle, C.

    2012-01-01

    Since the very beginning of the restructuring process, back in 1982 in Chile, the ability of an electricity market to provide the system with the required level of security of supply has been put into question. The mistrust on the ability of the market, left to its own devices, to provide sufficient generation availability when needed, is more and more leading to the implementation of additional regulatory mechanisms. This matter is undoubtedly gaining importance and it has taken a key role in the energy regulators’ agendas. In this paper, we revisit this discussion under the light of thirty years of electricity market experience. We analyze the different reasons why, although ideally the market is supposed to provide itself an adequate security of supply at the generation level, this result is still far from being achieved in practice. - Highlights: ► Discussion on the need for capacity mechanisms is revisited. ► Reasons behind adequacy problem are analyzed. ► Regulator’s intervention to guarantee supply is most of the times justified.

  10. Risk of revolutions in the Middle East. [Of importance for oil supplies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jensen, R.

    1983-01-01

    Western Europe and of course also Denmark will still for many years be dependent on the oil that is recovered in the Arabian Gulf. Denmark has the largest percentage oil conservation in Western Europe. It is not only due to the power plants using more coal, but also our energy consumption decreases more than in other Western European countries. In spite of these reulsts it is obvious, that Denmarks economy entirely depends on the economy of our neighbouring countries. Security of energy supply is therefore a western problem, which Denmark cannot solve alone. The development of societies in the Middle East countries, including the key country Saudi Arabia, is so labile, that a period of crisis with insecurity in the oil supplies cannot be excluded. In addition to this is the risk of international conflicts, that stop the oil export. The probability of these risks becoming actualized in the next 10 to 15 years is hard to tell, but it is important to call the attention to the risks. These risks seem to be much underrated in the discussions of security policy, where the east-west problems dominate. Therefore it would be wrong to take the westernization of the Arabic societies for granted. Periods with extreme ideologies are very probable. As to the international conflicts one only has to refer to the present war between Iraq and Iran.

  11. The Security of Energy Supply and the Contribution of Nuclear Energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2011-01-01

    What contribution can nuclear energy make to improve the security of energy supply? This study, which examines a selection of OECD member countries, qualitatively and quantitatively validates the often intuitive assumption that, as a largely domestic source of electricity with stable costs and no greenhouse gas emissions during production, nuclear energy can make a positive contribution. Following an analysis of the meaning and context of security of supply, the study uses transparent and policy-relevant indicators to show that, together with improvements in energy efficiency, nuclear energy has indeed contributed significantly to enhanced energy supply security in OECD countries over the past 40 years. Content: Foreword; Executive Summary; 1. The Security of Energy Supply and the Contribution of Nuclear Energy - Concepts and Issues: - Energy supply security: An introduction, - Why security of energy supply remains a policy issue in OECD countries, - The external dimension: import dependence, resource exhaustion and carbon policy, - The internal dimension: economic, financial and technical considerations for energy supply security - Orientations for government policies to enhance the security of energy supply, - Conclusions; 2. Indicators and Models for Measuring Security of Energy Supply Risks: - Introduction, - Different approaches towards designing the Supply/Demand Index, - A detailed review of selected security of supply indicators, - Comprehensive models for assessing the security of energy supply, - The Supply/Demand Index, - Concluding observations; 3. Evolution of the Security of Energy Supply in OECD Countries: - Time-dependent quantification of the security of energy supply, - Changes in security of supply in selected OECD countries, - Electricity generation and the security of energy supply, - The contribution of nuclear energy and energy intensity to the security of energy supply, - The geographical distribution of SSDI values, - Conclusions; 4. Public

  12. Oil supply increase due in 1996's second half

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beck, R.J.

    1996-01-01

    The crucial oil-market issue for this year's second half is new supply. Production will increase again outside the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. And Iraq has general approval to resume exports under limits set by the United Nations, although start of the exports has been delayed by at least 60 days. The big question is the market's ability to absorb the supply gains. As usual, the market's need for oil in the second half will depend on economies. So far in 1996, economic growth has pushed consumption to levels unexpected a year ago. Demand the rest of the year depends heavily on economic performances of the industrialized nations that make up the organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and the rapidly growing nations of the Asia-Pacific region. Growth in countries elsewhere in the developing world, especially Latin America, remains a wild card. The paper discusses the worldwide outlook, crude oil prices, US product prices, natural gas prices, US economy, US energy demand, natural gas in the US, US oil demand, gasoline prices, distillate gains, resid slumps, LPG, ethane, US supply, production patterns, rise in refinery capacity, imports, stocks, and stock coverage

  13. legal and institutional framework for promoting oil pipeline security

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    RAYAN_

    Oil pipelines are no ordinary assets, and their security is of utmost importance especially in ... 1 US Energy Information Administration, “Country Analysis Brief: Nigeria” (EIA, ..... human factors to material defects: pipe corrosion, ground erosion,.

  14. Security of energy supply: Comparing scenarios from a European perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Costantini, V.; Markandya, A.; Vicini, G.

    2007-01-01

    This policy compares different results from a set of energy scenarios produced by international energy experts, in order to analyse projections on increasing European external energy dependence and vulnerability. Comparison among different scenarios constitutes the basis of a critical review of existing energy security policies, suggesting alternative or complementary future actions. According to the analysis, the main risks and negative impacts in the long term could be the increasing risk of collusion among exporters due to growing dependence of industrialized countries and insufficient diversification; and a risk of demand/supply imbalance, with consequent instability for exporting regions due to insufficient demand, and lack of infrastructures due to insufficient supply. Cooperation with exporting countries enhancing investments in production capacity, and with developing countries in order to reinforce negotiation capacity of energy-importing countries seem to be the most effective policies at international level. (author)

  15. Security of energy supply: Comparing scenarios from a European perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Costantini, Valeria; Gracceva, Francesco; Markandya, Anil; Vicini, Giorgio

    2007-01-01

    This paper compares different results from a set of energy scenarios produced by international energy experts, in order to analyse projections on increasing European external energy dependence and vulnerability. Comparison among different scenarios constitutes the basis of a critical review of existing energy security policies, suggesting alternative or complementary future actions. According to the analysis, the main risks and negative impacts in the long term could be the increasing risk of collusion among exporters due to growing dependence of industrialized countries and insufficient diversification; and a risk of demand/supply imbalance, with consequent instability for exporting regions due to insufficient demand, and lack of infrastructures due to insufficient supply. Cooperation with exporting countries enhancing investments in production capacity, and with developing countries in order to reinforce negotiation capacity of energy-importing countries seem to be the most effective policies at international level

  16. Oil, Security, and the Post-9/11 World

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Hermsmeyer, Gregory

    2002-01-01

    The September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks did not directly threaten world oil supplies, but they exposed the long-term danger of relying on an energy source found chiefly in one of the world's most explosive regions...

  17. Security of Supply Monitoring Report 2008-2024

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2009-06-01

    The export potential for Dutch electricity is set to grow over the next few years as a number of plans for new power stations are implemented. Even if only some of these plans come to fruition, there will be more than enough capacity to meet domestic demand for electricity. These are the main conclusions of the Security of Supply Monitoring Report, an annual overview compiled by TenneT, the Dutch Transmission System Operator (TSO) at the request of the Minister of Economic Affairs. The report also reveals that the effects of the current economic downturn on the construction plans are unclear. The Security of Supply Monitoring Report 2007-2024 is based on a wide range of data, including information supplied by energy producers, and provides insight into the expected development of the demand for and supply of electricity in the Netherlands. The export potential for Dutch electricity is set to grow over the next few years. After many years of dependence on imports, the Netherlands is now self-sufficient in electricity and will see its export potential increase even further in the near future. TenneT has facilitated this development by investing in high-quality infrastructure (interconnections with other countries and new connections). In the period after 2009 we can see a further increase in the planned realisation of new large-scale production capacity. Approx. 2.3 gigawatt (GW) of capacity is to be realised in 2010, followed by 8.3 GW in the 2011-2013 period and 7.7 GW in the 2014-2016 period. This brings the total amount of planned new capacity to approx. 18.5 GW over the surveyed period from 2009 to 2016.

  18. Oil Politics and National Security in Nigeria

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-12-01

    Oil Transparency in the Niger Delta: Improving Public Sector Oil Derived Resource Flows and Utilization in Abia State, Nigeria,” Economies of...against the nine states officially recognized i.e. they exclude Ondo, Abia , and Imo states from being part of the Delta region (figure 1). 125 BBC...Peterside Sofiri Dr, “Oil Transparency in the Niger Delta: Improving Public Sector Oil Derived Resource Flows and Utilization in Abia State, Nigeria

  19. Secure energy supply without coal and nuclear power?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clement, W.

    2008-01-01

    The future of energy policy and energy supply is determined by the rising global demand for every kind of energy. Europe is being confronted with an ever growing dependence on imported oil and gas. We thus fall victim to the volatile ups and downs of oil and gas prices on the world markets. These risks to industry, and thus to jobs, are simply underrated, even ignored, in this country. Challenges of this kind require strategic solutions instead of case-by-case decisions which, in addition, more often than not are based on emotion rather than facts. Finding strategic solutions means that we must use all our scientific, technological and industrial potentials to achieve our ambitious goals in climate policy. We must use energy as intelligently as possible, i.e., we must develop and, above all, use CO 2 -free coal-fired power plants, safe nuclear power, renewable energy sources, and take measures to ensure a highly efficient management of energy. Only those four-pronged approach will enable us to ensure optimally competition, continuity of supply, and protection of the environment and the climate. Those who negate or ignore this interrelation are bound to fail in economic and ecological reality. (orig.)

  20. The oil price and non-OPEC supplies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Seymour, A.

    1990-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to examine in detail a major supply development - that of non-OPEC oil in the 1970s and 1980s - in order to determine whether a part, if any, of the increase in non-OPEC production after the price shocks was unambiguously due to decisions and developments that preceded the price shocks. This 'historical' approach which examines facts in detail and in their exact chronology enables us to disaggregate the increase in non-OPEC production into two parts; one that is totally independent of the price shocks and one that could not be said in all certainty to have been influenced by the price rise. This study thus provides a maximalist answer to the question: 'How much of the increase is non-OPEC supplies was due to the price shocks?' Our main finding however is that the maximum amount that can be attributed to the price rise is but a fraction of the total supply increase. As a foundation on which to generalize on the effect of the oil price shocks on non-OPEC supplies as a whole, case studies on eighteen non-OPEC producers are presented. These are: the UK, Norway, Egypt, Mexico, Angola, Cameron, the Congo, Brazil, Colombia, Peru, Australia, India, the Federation of Malaysia, Oman, the USA, Canada, the USSR and China. Together, these countries have accounted for over 90% of total cumulative non-OPEC supply between 1974 and 1987, inclusive. (author)

  1. Oil and international security: old and new issues

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Noel, P.

    1998-09-01

    This paper questions the effectiveness of the link between international oil and (inter)national security. First, it explains an acknowledge the rise and decline of the traditional case of this link: the threat that so called ''oil dependence'' inflicts upon the national economy, hence the problem it raises for government. The reason for that decline is looked for in the emergence of multiple forms of competition in oil and energy markets, making the ''oil weapon'' less credible and its use less desirable and less possible. In oil like in any other commodity, the normal situation is the competition between suppliers for access to markets. For all basic economics tells us and experience has confirmed, analyses and policies (at least in France) are still strongly influenced by the ''oil security'' thinking shaped in the eve of the 1970 crises. Yet, those fallacies may be the strongest obstacle to the acknowledgment of the real oil security issues we face. The main one is the possible political destabilization of the Middle East due to oil competition between its members in an increasingly competitive world market. The consequences on regional antagonisms of the come back of Iraqi oil to the market on one hand, the internal stability of Iran and Saudi Arabia in a situation of lasting low oil revenues on the other hand, are reviewed as the main possible factors of regional destabilization in a context of strong competition in the world oil market. A large scale political burst with major oil producers concerned would certainly hurt developed and developing economy. That leads us to this paradoxical situation: the very cause of the decline of the traditional oil dependence issue is, due to Middle East situation, the main cause of possible destabilization of world oil market today. (author)

  2. Proposal on concept of security of energy supply with nuclear energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ujita, Hiroshi; Matsui, Kazuaki; Yamada, Eiji

    2009-01-01

    Security of energy supply (SoS) was a major concern for OECD governments in the early 1970s. Since then, successive oil crises, volatility of hydrocarbon prices, as well as terrorist risks and natural disasters, have brought the issue back to the centre stage of policy agendas. SoS concept has been proposed which is defined by time frame and space frame as well. Wide meaning SoS consists of narrow meaning SoS of short-term energy crisis, which is the traditional concept, and long-term global energy problem, which has become important recently. Three models have been proposed here for evaluating SoS. A method to estimate energy security level in a quantitative manner by comparing with various measures has been also proposed, in which nuclear energy contribution onto SoS can be further measured. (author)

  3. Green paper - towards a European strategy for the security of energy supply, technical document

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2005-01-01

    The Green Paper sets forth a series of questions regarding the security of energy in Europe. It addresses the issue of increased consumption and dependence on oil, and sketches out possible strategies for broadening the energy supply and slowing global warming. It draws an alarming picture of the EU energy situation. If no action is taken, it predicts that the EU energy dependency will climb from 50% in 2000 to 70% in 2030. The particular situation for the main imported fossil fuels is described. This technical paper is particularly devoted to the context, the energy sources, the supply disruption, the energy demand, the fuel balance, the energy technology and the transport of fuel in the EU (transit). (A.L.B.)

  4. Review of Drug Quality and Security Act of 2013: The Drug Supply Chain Security Act (DSCSA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elona Gjini

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available The Drug Supply Chain Security Act (DSCSA signed into law in November 27, 2013 by president Obama creates a uniform national standard for tracing drug products through the supply chain. The goal of DQSA is to enhance FDA’s ability to help protect consumers by detecting and removing potential dangerous products from the pharmaceutics distribution supply chain. A new electronic, interoperable system will identify and trace only prescription drugs in the finished form for human use while distributed in the United States. The purpose of this review was to shed light on a complex and complicated process that it will require cooperation between FDA and drug manufactures, wholesale drug distributors, repackagers and dispensers. The implementation of the DSCSA is based on several law requirements and FDA has developed a schedule with time frames for each of them to be executed over a 10-year period. From this review, FDA recommendations are provided through the FDA Guidance on Identifying Suspect Product document to help trading partners and provide information about the risk of suspect drugs entering the supply chain. Moreover, FDA organized on April 5-6, 2016 in Silver Spring, MD a public workshop to gather valuable feedback from stakeholders who shared their input about the implementation of the new electronic system and its requirements. By the end of 2023, a unified system will provide easier data exchange and less errors, and will increase the safety and security of the pharmaceutical distribution supply chain.   Type: Student Project

  5. Sustainable Palm Oil Production For Bioenergy Supply Chain

    OpenAIRE

    Ng, Wai Kiat

    2009-01-01

    A bioenergy supply chain is formed by many parts which from the raw material, biomass feedstock until the distribution and utilisation. The upstream activity is always managed in a sustainable way in order to be capable enough to support the downstream activity. In this dissertation, the sustainable production of palm oil is focused and researched through problem identification and solving by using the operation management perspective and practices. At first, the global biomass industry is st...

  6. Oil Dependence, Climate Change and Energy Security: Will Constraints on Oil Shape our Climate Future or Vice Versa?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mignone, B. K.

    2008-12-01

    Threats to US and global energy security take several forms. First, the overwhelming dependence on oil in the transport sector leaves the US economy (and others) vulnerable to supply shocks and price volatility. Secondly, the global dependence on oil inflates prices and enhances the transfer of wealth to authoritarian regimes. Finally, the global reliance on fossil fuels more generally jeopardizes the stability of the climate system. These three threats - economic, strategic and environmental - can only be mitigated through a gradual substitution away from fossil fuels (both coal and oil) on a global scale. Such large-scale substitution could occur in response to potential resource constraints or in response to coordinated government policies in which these externalities are explicitly internalized. Here, I make use of a well-known integrated assessment model (MERGE) to examine both possibilities. When resource limits are considered alone, global fuel use tends to shift toward even more carbon-intensive resources, like oil shale or liquids derived from coal. On the other hand, when explicit carbon constraints are imposed, the fuel sector response is more complex. Generally, less stringent climate targets can be satisfied entirely through reductions in global coal consumption, while more stringent targets require simultaneous reductions in both coal and oil consumption. Taken together, these model results suggest that resource constraints alone will only exacerbate the climate problem, while a subset of policy-driven carbon constraints may yield tangible security benefits (in the form of reduced global oil consumption) in addition to the intended environmental outcome.

  7. Documentation of the oil and gas supply module (OGSM)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1996-01-01

    The purpose of this report is to define the objectives of the Oil and Gas Supply Model (OGSK, to describe the model`s basic approach, and to provide detail on how the model works. This report is intended as a reference document for model analysts, users, and the public. It is prepared in accordance with the Energy Information Administration`s (EIA) legal obligation to provide adequate documentation in support of its statistical and forecast reports (Public Law 93-275, Section 57(b)(2). OGSM is a comprehensive framework with which to analyze oil and gas supply potential and related issues. Its primary function is to produce forecast of crude oil, natural gas production, and natural gas imports and exports in response to price data received endogenously (within NEMS) from the Natural Gas Transmission and Distribution Model (NGTDM) and the Petroleum Market Model (PMM). To accomplish this task, OGSM does not provide production forecasts per se, but rather parameteres for short-term domestic oil and gas production functions and natural gas import functions that reside in PMM and NGTDM.

  8. Documentation of the oil and gas supply module (OGSM)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1996-01-01

    The purpose of this report is to define the objectives of the Oil and Gas Supply Model (OGSK, to describe the model's basic approach, and to provide detail on how the model works. This report is intended as a reference document for model analysts, users, and the public. It is prepared in accordance with the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) legal obligation to provide adequate documentation in support of its statistical and forecast reports (Public Law 93-275, Section 57(b)(2). OGSM is a comprehensive framework with which to analyze oil and gas supply potential and related issues. Its primary function is to produce forecast of crude oil, natural gas production, and natural gas imports and exports in response to price data received endogenously (within NEMS) from the Natural Gas Transmission and Distribution Model (NGTDM) and the Petroleum Market Model (PMM). To accomplish this task, OGSM does not provide production forecasts per se, but rather parameteres for short-term domestic oil and gas production functions and natural gas import functions that reside in PMM and NGTDM

  9. A Stochastic Model for Improving Information Security in Supply Chain Systems

    OpenAIRE

    Ibrahim Al Kattan; Ahmed Al Nunu; Kassem Saleh

    2009-01-01

    This article presents a probabilistic security model for supply chain management systems (SCM) in which the basic goals of security (including confidentiality, integrity, availability and accountability, CIAA) are modeled and analyzed. Consequently, the weak points in system security are identified. A stochastic model using measurable values to describe the information system security of a SCM is introduced. Information security is a crucial and integral part of the network of supply chains. ...

  10. Drilling rates and expected oil prices: The own price elasticity of US oil supply

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kaufmann, R.K.; Gruen, W.; Montesi, R.

    1994-01-01

    This paper evaluates the feasibility of policies to increase exploration and development by the oil industry. To do so, the authors estimate a new model for well completions in the United States that includes the effect of price expectations from survey data, that separates exploratory from development wells, and that uses a deflator based on the cost of drilling a well. The regression results indicate that the price elasticity of drilling is considerably smaller than previous estimates. When combined with recent analyses of drilling success, the results indicate that the own price elasticity of US oil supply is relatively small. The low price elasticity of supply indicates that efforts to increase domestic oil supplies by increasing well completions may be more expensive than believed previously

  11. Intrastate conflict in oil producing states: A threat to global oil supply?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Toft, Peter, E-mail: peter.toft@ec.europa.eu [Institute for Energy, Joint Research Centre of the European Commission, Westerduinweg 3, 1755 ZG Petten (Netherlands)

    2011-11-15

    In this paper I investigate how often and how much outbreaks of intrastate conflict in oil producing states translates into oil supply shortfalls. The Libyan conflict that broke out in February 2011 highlighted the fear that intrastate conflict in oil producing states may imply shortfalls and ensuing volatile global oil prices. I argue, however, that it is far from certain that shortfalls following conflict outbreak will occur, since both sides in a conflict face incentives simultaneously to protect and maintain oil installations and to strike and destroy these. Based on a quantitative analysis of 39 intrastate wars in oil producing countries (1965-2007) I conclude that outbreak of conflict does not translate into production decline with any certainty. In fact, likelihoods are less than 50% for reductions to occur. In many cases growing production actually followed conflict outbreak. I conclude by investigating four characteristics of intrastate conflict that may explain when oil production is at risk during conflict: (1) proximity of oil producing fields to key battle zones, (2) duration of conflict, (3) separatism and the location of oil in separatist territory, and (4) the relative size of oil production. While the first three factors did not prove important, oil producer size could be significant. But further research is needed to establish this with greater certainty. - Highlights: > Oil shortfall during intrastate conflict is not a given. > Statistical analysis of 39 intrastate conflicts in oil producing countries since 1965. > Examination of four characteristics of intrastate conflict in oil producing countries. > Marginal significance related to large producers and production shortfall.

  12. Intrastate conflict in oil producing states: A threat to global oil supply?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Toft, Peter

    2011-01-01

    In this paper I investigate how often and how much outbreaks of intrastate conflict in oil producing states translates into oil supply shortfalls. The Libyan conflict that broke out in February 2011 highlighted the fear that intrastate conflict in oil producing states may imply shortfalls and ensuing volatile global oil prices. I argue, however, that it is far from certain that shortfalls following conflict outbreak will occur, since both sides in a conflict face incentives simultaneously to protect and maintain oil installations and to strike and destroy these. Based on a quantitative analysis of 39 intrastate wars in oil producing countries (1965-2007) I conclude that outbreak of conflict does not translate into production decline with any certainty. In fact, likelihoods are less than 50% for reductions to occur. In many cases growing production actually followed conflict outbreak. I conclude by investigating four characteristics of intrastate conflict that may explain when oil production is at risk during conflict: (1) proximity of oil producing fields to key battle zones, (2) duration of conflict, (3) separatism and the location of oil in separatist territory, and (4) the relative size of oil production. While the first three factors did not prove important, oil producer size could be significant. But further research is needed to establish this with greater certainty. - Highlights: → Oil shortfall during intrastate conflict is not a given. → Statistical analysis of 39 intrastate conflicts in oil producing countries since 1965. → Examination of four characteristics of intrastate conflict in oil producing countries. → Marginal significance related to large producers and production shortfall.

  13. Future oil supply: The changing stance of the International Energy Agency

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miller, Richard G.

    2011-01-01

    The IEA was established in 1974 with a mandate to promote energy security amongst its members, namely the states of the OECD, and to advise those members on sound energy policy. Its recent forecasts of the medium and long term prospects for oil supply, however, have wavered, alternating from optimistic to pessimistic and back again. For policy-makers, such inconsistency is difficult to deal with. Firstly we examine whether the changing outlooks seen in IEA forecasts made between 2007 and 2010 truly reflect a demonstrable, underlying change in the known facts, and we can find no such factual changes reported by the IEA. Secondly we examine whether the serious criticisms of the forecast made by other analysts have yet been addressed, and we conclude that they have not. Thirdly we consider the possible effects of the current economic downturn upon the IEA's assumptions and upon future oil supply. We conclude that all the forecasts made by the IEA appear to be too optimistic throughout this period. - Research highlights: → IEA forecasts of oil supply have changed from optimistic to pessimistic and back. → The reasons for the changes are listed, examined and found wanting. → The most appropriate IEA forecast is nevertheless the most pessimistic one. → Some criticisms of the forecast methodology and assumptions are described.

  14. What scenario studies tell about security of energy supply in Europe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lako, P.; Jansen, J.C.

    2001-06-01

    A technical fact-finding study on security of energy supply has been performed from the European point of view and from the point of view of the Netherlands. A brief assessment is presented of fossil fuel resources. Based on data from the United States Geological Survey (USGS) and other literature, the reserves/production ratio of conventional and unconventional oil is estimated at approximately 200 years. Based on the same USGS data, the reserves/production ratio of conventional natural gas is estimated at 190 years. The unconventional gas resources are extremely large. However, environmental damage has to be prevented. The amount of recoverable resources will remain a question mark for the time being. The world's proved recoverable coal reserves amount to a reserves/production ratio of 230 years. All in all, oil remains a strategic fossil fuel, whereas the supply of natural gas seems to be more well-balanced and the supply of coal is more secure than both of oil and gas. The so-called Shared analysis project, performed by a number of research institutes in the EU, gives useful points of departure for energy policy formulation. However, the results of notably the reference scenario and to a lesser extent its variants in terms of primary energy use, CO2 emissions, and the EU's import dependence for fossil fuels have to be regarded carefully. A similar picture arises from IEA's World Energy Outlook 2000. The 'Out-look' gives due attention to OECD Europe's dependence on imported oil and gas. The share of oil imports is due to rise from 32% in 1990 to 80% in 2020. Due to a projected steady growth of gas consumption, import dependence with respect to natural gas is due to rise from 34% in 1997 to about 65% in 2020. In the scenarios developed by CPB, in collaboration with AVV, ECN, and RIVM, in 1997, the share of natural gas in total primary energy demand is projected to increase to 50-55% in all of the scenarios. In the most energy intensive scenarios, natural gas is

  15. Security of supply: a neglected fossil fuel externality

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cavallo, A.J.

    1995-01-01

    Various groups have attempted to set a monetary value on the externalities of fossil fuel usage based on damages caused by emissions of particulates, sulfur dioxide, and oxides of nitrogen and carbon. One externality that has been neglected in this type of analysis, however, is the cost of maintaining a secure supply of fossil fuels. Military expenditures for this purpose are relatively easy to quantify based on US Department of Defense and Office of Management and Budget figures, and amount to between $1 and more than $3 per million Btu, based on total fossil fuel consumption in the US. Open acknowledgment of such expenses would, at the very least, have a profound effect on the perceived competitiveness of all non-fossil fuel technologies. It should also provide a simple and easily comprehended rationale for an energy content (Btu) charge on all fossil fuels. (Author)

  16. Government's role in power supply security. A working group report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2004-01-01

    The working group was to analyse the Government's role in terms of improving the security of supply of the electricity market in exceptionally difficult capacity situations and to make propositions for the ways of arranging a tendering procedure concerning security of supply and capacity control, so as to meet the requirements of the EC Energy Internal Market Directives after 1 July 2004. The Working Group considers that there is no need at this stage to introduce a separate new system intended as a supplement to technical reserves in Finland. Such a system would not bring new capacity for the use of the power system, and in the case of existing capacity, production would only be transferred from one market to another. However, the situation may change from this, if there occur such factors on the market that aim to raise the market price of electricity or if it turned out that reserve power plants would be decommissioned on a large scale. The working group proposes that such a provision be added to the Electricity Market Act that would oblige the electricity supplier to notify the Energy Market Authority of a planned service outage of a power plant of at least 100 MVA producing electricity separately, which would fall within the time period 1 December - 28 February. The Energy Market Authority would be vested with the powers to postpone the outage due to a tight output situation, if there are not technical or safety- bound obstacles to this. It is important for the sufficiency of the power need of the Internal Market that the price signals of the market are reflected to both producers and consumers of electricity. The working group further proposes that the Ministry of Trade and Industry would look into development of the meter-reading requirements, so that they would, for their part, create the conditions for price flexibility in power consumption and for new sales products of electricity. In addition, tightening of the hourly metering requirement related to the

  17. Assessment of Political Vulnerabilities on Security of Energy Supply in the Baltic States

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Česnakas Giedrius

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The article argues that despite the evident link between political environment and security of energy supply, political elements are not sufficiently represented in contemporary scientific literature, namely in indexes that are designed for the assessment of security of energy supply. In an attempt to fill this gap, the article presents an innovative methodology for quantitative assessment of the political vulnerabilities on security of energy supply and applies it to the analysis of the Baltic States.

  18. Oil inventories should be based on margins, supply reliability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Waguespack, K.; Cantor, B.D.

    1996-01-01

    US oil inventories have plummeted to their lowest recorded levels this year, leading industry observers to conclude that refiners have adopted new just-in-time (JIT) inventory policies. Total crude oil inventories are about 300 million bbl -- 8% below the 10-year average. Distillate inventories posted similar declines this year because of unusually cold winter temperatures and refiners' reluctance to build sufficient stocks in the autumn months. Gasoline stocks are 20% below the 10-year average at 200 million bbl, despite forecasts of record-high gasoline demand this summer. The sudden drop in crude and product inventories this year is widely considered a sign that refiners have implemented JIT, signaling a permanent shift to reduced stocks. The authors submit that the shift towards reduced oil inventories is not related to a concerted adoption of JIT by US refiners, and that oil inventory management decisions should instead be based on refining margins and supply reliability. The paper discusses the JIT revolution and the optimal-inventory model

  19. More countries in recession: Oil supply looking for demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1993-01-01

    Crude oil prices fell dramatically during the fourth quarter of 1992. Refiners are reevaluating their positions to adjust to low demand growth worldwide. The only bright spot appears to be the United States' emergence from its economic recession. However, Japan and Germany are experiencing their own economic recessions, and crude oil supplies show no sign of tightening. Crude oil futures prices have fallen by more than 15% as of January 8, 1993 compared to October 1, 1992. Although the American Petroleum Institute (API) found increases in oil demand during October and November 1992, the increases are attributed to colder weather and the weak 1991 demand that was used for comparison. This issue identifies current factors at work affecting U.S. refining margins and product values, and offers a first quarter 1993 outlook. All data featured in graphs and text come from the Energy detente Refinery Netback Data Series published in each issue, in which gasoline and diesel No. 2 are Lundberg Survey unbranded racks instead of spot quotations. Margins are apparent deltas only and do not reflect actual profits for any individual operation

  20. Evaluating U.S. oil security and import reliance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brown, Stephen P.A.; Huntington, Hillard G.

    2015-01-01

    We examine the literature that considers the consequences of U.S. reliance on imported oil. We take an approach that covers many ideas about the costs arising from U.S. reliance on imported oil, and we identify which of those ideas have broad support in the economics literature and which ideas have only limited support. We also quantify the costs of U.S. reliance on imported oil using two approaches. One is fairly narrow, conforms to the economics view of externalities, and yields small cost estimates. The other is relatively expansive, is favored by some policy analysts, and yields much larger cost estimates. We estimate these costs as expected U.S. economic losses over a time horizon from 2010 through 2035, while taking into account world oil market conditions, market power, probable oil supply disruptions, and the oil-market response to those supply disruptions. - Highlights: • A variety of perspectives on the consequences of U.S. reliance on imported oil. • Quantify and evaluate the costs of U.S. reliance on oil imports. • Narrower approaches are more consistent with the economic definition of externalities. • Narrower approaches yield recommendations for relatively modest policy. • Expansive approaches favored by some policy analysts support more aggressive policy

  1. Impact of innovations on future energy supply - chemical enhanced oil recovery (CEOR).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bittner, Christian

    2013-01-01

    The International Energy Agency (IEA) expects an increase of global energy demand by one-third during next 20 years together with a change in the global energy mix. A key-influencing factor is a strong expected increase in oil and gas production in the United States driven by 'new' technologies such as hydraulic fracturing. Chemical enhanced oil recovery (CEOR) is another strong growing technology with the potential of a step change innovation, which will help to secure future oil supply by turning resources into reserves. While conventional production methods give access to on average only one-third of original oil in place, the use of surfactants and polymers allows for recovery of up to another third of this oil. In the case of polymer flooding with poly acrylamide, the number of full field implementations has increased in recent years. In the meantime new polymers have been developed to cover previously unmet needs - such polymers can be applied in fields of high salinity and high temperature. Use of surfactants is in an earlier stage, but pilot tests show promising results.

  2. Securing co-operation from persons supplying statistical data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aubenque, M. J.; Blaikley, R. M.; Harris, F. Fraser; Lal, R. B.; Neurdenburg, M. G.; Hernández, R. de Shelly

    1954-01-01

    Securing the co-operation of persons supplying information required for medical statistics is essentially a problem in human relations, and an understanding of the motivations, attitudes, and behaviour of the respondents is necessary. Before any new statistical survey is undertaken, it is suggested by Aubenque and Harris that a preliminary review be made so that the maximum use is made of existing information. Care should also be taken not to burden respondents with an overloaded questionnaire. Aubenque and Harris recommend simplified reporting. Complete population coverage is not necessary. Neurdenburg suggests that the co-operation and support of such organizations as medical associations and social security boards are important and that propaganda should be directed specifically to the groups whose co-operation is sought. Informal personal contacts are valuable and desirable, according to Blaikley, but may have adverse effects if the right kind of approach is not made. Financial payments as an incentive in securing co-operation are opposed by Neurdenburg, who proposes that only postage-free envelopes or similar small favours be granted. Blaikley and Harris, on the other hand, express the view that financial incentives may do much to gain the support of those required to furnish data; there are, however, other incentives, and full use should be made of the natural inclinations of respondents. Compulsion may be necessary in certain instances, but administrative rather than statutory measures should be adopted. Penalties, according to Aubenque, should be inflicted only when justified by imperative health requirements. The results of surveys should be made available as soon as possible to those who co-operated, and Aubenque and Harris point out that they should also be of practical value to the suppliers of the information. Greater co-operation can be secured from medical persons who have an understanding of the statistical principles involved; Aubenque and

  3. LNG, Competition and Security of Supply: the Role of Shipping

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dorigoni, S.; Mazzei, L.; Pontoni, F.; Sileo, A.

    2009-01-01

    In the last few years, one of the main concerns of European Union in the energetic field has been that of facilitating the safeguard of raw materials' security of supply, especially that of natural gas. Import through LNG chain, that is, through the employment of LNG tankers for gas transportation, has been identified by the European Council as one of the instruments to achieve these goals. In fact, import via LNG does not require, for the importer, such investments as to determine an indissoluble physical tie between producer and buyer, as happens for transport via pipeline (Chernyavska et al., 2002). In other words, investments in pipelines are very specific. Moreover, as they are made in order to support specific transactions, contracts usually take the form of long-term agreements with minimum off take requirements (take or pay clauses): such contracts definitely contribute to the cartelization of the market, hindering competition. Unlike investments in pipelines, those in the LNG chain present a much lower degree of specificity: in fact, even though the construction of a re gasification plant is generally tied to the stipulation of a long-term agreement (with take or pay clause), LNG chain costs have significantly decreased over time (until a few years ago) and, moreover, it is getting increasingly common that part of plant capacity is made available for spot transactions. What's more, once the contract is expired and the investment is sunk, the importer may satisfy his gas supply needs on the basis of his relative gains. As far as LNG import contractual practices are concerned, significant changes have started to take places in the last few years, both in terms of agreements' length average duration has significantly decreased and in terms of price indexation in the most developed markets LNG price is tied to gas spot price (IEA, 2006). One of the many possible advantages of transport via LNG is that liquefied gas enables European importers to widen their gas

  4. A simulation approach for analysis of short-term security of natural gas supply in Colombia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Villada, Juan; Olaya, Yris

    2013-01-01

    Achieving security of gas supply implies diversifying gas sources, while having enough supply, transportation, and storage capacity to meet demand peaks and supply interruptions. Devising a strategy for securing gas supply is not straightforward because gas supply depends on complex interactions of production, demand and infrastructure, and it is exposed to economic, regulatory, political, environmental and technical risks. To address this complexity, we propose a simulation approach that replicates the structure of the gas supply chain, including transportation constraints and demand fluctuations. We build and calibrate a computer model for the Colombian gas sector, and run the model to assess the impact of expanding transportation capacity and increasing market flexibility on the security of supply. Our analysis focuses on the operation and planned and proposed expansions of the transportation infrastructure because adequate regulation and development of this infrastructure can contribute to increase the security of supply in the gas sector. We find that proposed import facilities, specifically LNG import terminals at Buenaventura, increase system's security under the current market structure. - Highlights: ► We build a simulation model for analyzing natural gas trade in Colombia. ► The model captures the structure of the gas network and on market rules. ► We simulate investment decisions to increase short-term security of supply. ► Securing supply would need LNG imports and expansion of pipeline capacity.

  5. A Policy study on stabilization of heating oil supply and demand

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Bok Jae [Korea Energy Economics Institute, Euiwang (Korea)

    1999-03-01

    As a principal heating fuel for household and commercial sector, and a heat source fuel for industry, the heating oil shows its great demand intensively during a specific period (wintertime) due to its characteristics. It represents that the fluctuation of heating oil demand throughout the year is very extreme. Therefore, the stable supply of heating oil has been rising as an important task. It is desirable to develop and supply a new type of heating oil compounded of kerosene and gasoline with appropriate ratio for short- and mid-term to have a stable supply and demand of heating oil. For long-term prospect, it is desirable to supply petroleum products mixing gasoline and B-C oil as heating oil when it is equipped with combustion technology of boiler and distribution system. In this case, it is required to have investment on infrastructure for the supply of new heating oil (mixture of gasoline and B-C oil) and a proper preparatory period for the conversion of equipment (such as a boiler). The vitalization of storing oil is essential to stabilize the supply and demand of heating oil. In order to vitalize it, the price of heating oil should be determined by a market function reflecting the seasonal supply and demand circumstances. (author). 101 refs., 5 figs., 83 tabs.

  6. Security of supply and investments in the electricity sector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bouttes, J.P.

    2005-01-01

    Today, security of supply in electricity can be expressed in new terms, given the development of competition beyond national borders, particularly after the blackouts that occurred in Italy and New-York in 2003. Three causes are put forward to explain the difficulties encountered: the excessive market power of generators; market design that failed to acknowledge the electricity's specific attributes and incoherent government policy at national levels or between neighboring countries. Revisiting these debates, we try to develop the following conjectures: - If there are no regulatory or political barriers to siting, and if the market includes industrial players integrated from generation to marketing, market power is limited and controllable; - It is crucial to take into account the specific attributes of electricity in the design of power markets; - analysis of recent crises reveals them to be related to incoherent, unstable government policy and market design. Herein lies what are no doubt the most important and difficult questions to which economists and experts should devote further structured analyses. (author)

  7. Supply security and short-run capacity markets for electricity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Creti, Anna; Fabra, Natalia

    2007-01-01

    The creation of electricity markets has raised the fundamental question as to whether markets create the right incentives for the provision of the reserves needed to maintain supply security in the short-run, or whether some form of regulation is required. In some states in the US, electricity distributors have been made responsible for providing such reserves by contracting capacity in excess of their forecasted peak demand. The so-called Installed Capacity Markets provide one means of contracting reserves, and are the subject of this paper. Under monopoly as well as under perfect competition, we identify firms' short-run opportunity costs of committing resources in the capacity market and the costs of inducing full capacity commitment. The long-run investment problem is not considered. From a welfare viewpoint, we also compare the desirability of providing reserves either through capacity markets or through the demand side (i.e. power curtailments). At the optimum, capacity obligations equal peak demand (plus expected outages) and the capacity deficiency rate (which serves as a price cap) is set at firms' opportunity costs of providing full capacity commitment. (Author)

  8. Nuclear fuel supply continues to be cheap and secure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Braatz, U.; Dibbert, H.J.

    1985-01-01

    The fuel supply for German nuclear power stations has been secured in the long term in all the individual circuit stages. There are problems because of existing overcapacity worldwide on the suppliers' side. The worldwide throttling of natural uranium production has proved to be a possible way of supporting uranium prices. Because of the stagnant market for longterm contracts, there is still worry among uranium producer regarding further development of the market. The 1984 turnover on the spot market for natural uranium has nearly trebled compared with the previous year. The excess uranium conversion capacity in this sector caused low capacity utilisation and led to offers with considerable reductions. Turbulence with its epicentre in the USA has a feature of the separation work market. The centrifuge enrichers are better placed regarding production costs than the gas diffusion enrichers even with low capacity utilisation and use this advantage. The gas diffusion plants were only at half load, which led to new contract offers from DOE and to competitive prices with long term guaranteed discounts offered by COGEMA. The laser enrichment process was great interest to all energy producing countries. The use of recovered uranium and plutonium is still in the experimental stage. In view of the growing quantities of plutonium, the use of MOX in thermal reactors is growing in importance. (orig./HP) [de

  9. 33 CFR 165.1121 - Security Zone: Fleet Supply Center Industrial Pier, San Diego, CA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... Guard District § 165.1121 Security Zone: Fleet Supply Center Industrial Pier, San Diego, CA. (a... 33 Navigation and Navigable Waters 2 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Security Zone: Fleet Supply Center Industrial Pier, San Diego, CA. 165.1121 Section 165.1121 Navigation and Navigable Waters COAST...

  10. Background issues of oil supply trading in Pacific island countries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1990-01-01

    The 1980s has been a decade of considerable change within the petroleum industry resulting in new supply arrangements and continued uncertainty within the island countries about reasonable supply and pricing terms. Formulating an effective response is all the more challenging for small countries which have only recently become independent, which have miniscule public sector organizations responsible for energy policy and which occupy a region where petroleum dominates commercial energy use to a greater extent, well over 90 per cent, than any other part of the world. During the past five years the Energy Resources Section of ESCAP, and staff members of the Energy Program within the East West Center in Honolulu have frequently worked closely with the Pacific Energy Development Programme (PEDP) to advise Pacific island Governments on a wide range of petroleum policy and administration issues, including shipping, overall supply arrangements, contracts for refined products, price control and monitoring, regional co-operation, and storage options. They have also organized a number of formal and informal training activities within the petroleum sector and worked closely with a World Bank team which investigated regional bulk oil purchase in 1986. This report is of interest to readers concerned with options facing small countries, from both national and regional perspectives, for dealing with petroleum policy. Refs, figs and tabs

  11. US oil dependency and energy security; Dependance petroliere et securite energetique americaine

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Noel, P [Institut francais des Relations Internationals, 75 - Paris (France); [Universite Pierre Mendes-France-IEPE-CNRS, 38 - Grenoble (France)

    2002-07-01

    The three papers of this document were written in the framework of a seminar organized the 30 may 2002 by the IFRI in the framework of its program Energy and Climatic Change. The first presentation deals with the american oil policy since 1980 (relation between the oil dependence and the energy security, the Reagan oil policy, the new oil policy facing the increase of the dependence). The second one deals with the US energy security (oil security, domestic energy security, policy implications). The last presentation is devoted to the US oil dependence in a global context and the problems and policies of international energy security. (A.L.B.)

  12. The case for conserving oil resources: the fundamentals of supply and demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reynolds, D.B.

    2000-01-01

    This article summarises the evidence for an oil price shock and argues that oil producers, both OPEC and non-OPEC, need to cut back oil production more, in order to conserve oil for the future and to avert sudden extreme movements in oil prices in the next five-to-ten years. Four physical fundamentals determine long-run changes in oil prices: supply, demand, technology and substitutes. We show that supply, technology and substitutes are limited and demand is growing strongly. As demand pushes against supply, prices will rise rapidly. It would be better to conserve oil now, in order to have a smoother transition to higher-priced oil in the future. In addition, oil is such a valuable resource for the worlds economies in general, that we should conserve it for future generations. The world, in its haste for economic growth, should support OPEC conservation efforts. (author)

  13. The Effect of Information Security Management on Organizational Processes Integration in Supply Chain

    OpenAIRE

    Mohsen Shafiei Nikabadi; Ahmad Jafarian; Azam Jalili Bolhasani

    2012-01-01

    : The major purpose of this article was that how information security management has effect on supply chain integration and the effect of implementing "information security management system" on enhancing supplies chain integration. In this respect, current research was seeking a combination overview to these tow approaches (Information Security Management and Organizational Processes Integration by Enterprise Resources Planning System) and after that determined factors of these two import...

  14. Does Social Security Affect Retirement and Labor Supply? Using the Chilean Experience as an Experiment

    OpenAIRE

    Rodrigo Cerda

    2002-01-01

    The paper explores the effects of the social security system over retirement and labor supply decision of individuals aged 55 to 65 in Chile. We use the 1998 CASEN survey elaborated by the Chilean government. Due to regulations established by the current social security law, two social security systems coexist on 1998: the .Pay-as-you-go. and the individual account system. This property of the dataset, allows us to disentangle the effects of those two systems over retirement and labor supply....

  15. What is security of supply in the open market and how to achieve it?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Granic, Goran; Majstrovic, Matisla; Majstrovic, Goran; Zeljko, Mladen; Pesut, Damir; Bosnjak, Robert; Karan, Marko; Jelavic, Branka

    2010-09-15

    In the open market conditions the security of supply is limited. When a large number of players are introduced in to the system, each of them pursuing only partial and limited goals and tasks, the totality of care about security becomes vague. The analysis of the supply security in the responsibility chain, from producers to buyers, shows that open market model carries inherent risks because final security instance is lacking. The proposal is to introduce the State as the final instance that should be responsible for security and clear defining of the responsibilities of all entities included in the responsibility chain.

  16. 33 CFR 106.270 - Security measures for delivery of stores and industrial supplies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... stores and industrial supplies. (a) General. The OCS facility owner or operator must ensure that security...). These additional security measures may include: (1) Intensifying inspection of the stores or industrial... 33 Navigation and Navigable Waters 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Security measures for delivery of...

  17. Evaluation of security of supplies for the Danish energy system up to 1995

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Skjerk Christensen, P.; Daub, J.; Dietrich, O.W.; Laut, P.

    1979-03-01

    Security of energy supplies is one of the criteria which ought to enter into the future extension possibilities for the Danish energy system. But security of supply is a difficult concept to quantify involving as it does both technical and political aspects. The report attempts to encircle the problems relating to security of supply, partly by describing and evaluating the supply structure and the amount of the resource which could be thought of as entering into the future Danish pattern of energy supply, and partly by analyzing the consequences for the Danish consumer of a break in the supply of a specific fuel. It is noted that a supply breakdown in the electric system is not treated in the report except insofar as the fuel entering into the electric system is covered in the study. (author)

  18. Ensuring the security of electricity supply in Ontario: is demand-side management the answer?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chuddy, B.

    2004-01-01

    This paper examines the issues relating to ensuring the security of electricity supply in Ontario. In particular, it focuses on demand-side management as a means of achieving these objectives. The solution involves both conservation and supply. It is therefore critical that there be investment in new supply with multiple buyers/sellers. regulatory environment and pricing could encourage conservation

  19. The Effect of Information Security Management on Organizational Processes Integration in Supply Chain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohsen Shafiei Nikabadi

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available : The major purpose of this article was that how information security management has effect on supply chain integration and the effect of implementing "information security management system" on enhancing supplies chain integration. In this respect, current research was seeking a combination overview to these tow approaches (Information Security Management and Organizational Processes Integration by Enterprise Resources Planning System and after that determined factors of these two important issue by factor analysis. Researchers using a series of comments in the automotive experts (production planning and management and supply chain experts and caregivers car makers and suppliers in the first level and second level supply chain industry. In this way, it has been done that impact on how information security management processes enterprise supply chain integration with the help of statistical correlation analysis. The results of this investigation indicated effect of "information security management system" various dimensions that were coordination of information, prevent human errors and hardware, the accuracy of information and education for users on two dimensions of internal and external integration of business processes, supply chain and finally, it can increased integration of business processes in supply chain. At the end owing to quite these results, deployment of "information security management system" increased the integration of organizational processes in supply chain. It could be demonstrate with the consideration of relation of organizational integration processes whit the level of coordination of information, prevent errors and accuracy of information throughout the supply chain.

  20. US energy product supply elasticities. A survey and application to the US oil market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dahl, Carol; Duggan, Thomas E.

    1996-01-01

    We survey studies of simple energy supply models to find the most promising technique for developing supply elasticities in the U.S. crude oil market. The two dozen studies located include direct estimates of energy supply elasticities or cost studies from which supply or reserve elasticities can be inferred. We include all available studies for all forms of energy both primary and secondary. We find direct estimates of oil supply to obtain weak results unless depletion and price expectations are included. Oil product supply elasticities vary widely across studies but appear to be elastic. Studies that estimate reserve price elasticities by computing reserve costs appear to be the most promising for estimating reserve elasticities for fossil fuel supply. Hence we apply this technique to US oil reserves and find a reserve elasticity of 1.27

  1. Travel demand policies for saving oil during a supply emergency

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Noland, Robert B.; Cowart, William A.; Fulton, Lewis M.

    2006-01-01

    An area of growing concern is the future stability of oil producing regions and the ability to maintain stability in international petroleum markets. The transport sector, in particular, is extremely vulnerable to short-term supply disruptions with consequent implications on economic activities in most countries. This paper analyses potential transport demand restraint strategies that could potentially mitigate the impact of short-term supply disruptions. Our analysis includes estimates of the potential fuel savings from several policies. Specifically, we examine various work-based policies (telecommuting, flexible work schedules), the potential of carpooling, speed limit reductions, driving bans and restrictions, increased public transport usage, and providing information on the effect of maintaining optimal tire pressures. The analysis uses various assumptions based on existing knowledge about how travelers may respond under emergency conditions to develop estimates of potential fuel savings. Results suggest that the most restrictive policies, such as driving bans and mandatory carpooling are the most effective. Other policies provide small reductions with some, such as telecommuting and flexible work schedules, having the potential to be easily implemented. Those policies, focussed on encouraging public transport use, are less effective and potentially more costly to implement

  2. Travel demand policies for saving oil during a supply emergency

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Noland, Robert B. [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Centre for Transport Studies, Imperial College London, London SW7 2AZ (United Kingdom)]. E-mail: r.noland@imperial.ac.uk; Cowart, William A. [ICF Consulting, Ltd., Egmont House, 25-31 Tavistock Place, Bloomsbury, London, WC1H 9SU (United Kingdom); Fulton, Lewis M. [International Energy Agency, 9 Rue de la Federation, Paris 75015 (France)

    2006-11-15

    An area of growing concern is the future stability of oil producing regions and the ability to maintain stability in international petroleum markets. The transport sector, in particular, is extremely vulnerable to short-term supply disruptions with consequent implications on economic activities in most countries. This paper analyses potential transport demand restraint strategies that could potentially mitigate the impact of short-term supply disruptions. Our analysis includes estimates of the potential fuel savings from several policies. Specifically, we examine various work-based policies (telecommuting, flexible work schedules), the potential of carpooling, speed limit reductions, driving bans and restrictions, increased public transport usage, and providing information on the effect of maintaining optimal tire pressures. The analysis uses various assumptions based on existing knowledge about how travelers may respond under emergency conditions to develop estimates of potential fuel savings. Results suggest that the most restrictive policies, such as driving bans and mandatory carpooling are the most effective. Other policies provide small reductions with some, such as telecommuting and flexible work schedules, having the potential to be easily implemented. Those policies, focussed on encouraging public transport use, are less effective and potentially more costly to implement.

  3. Proceedings of the CERI 2004 Oil Conference : Insecurity of supply? CD-ROM ed.

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2004-01-01

    The 21 presentations at this conference reflected recent developments in the international petroleum industry with particular focus on the outlook of world energy markets and prospects for oil supply and reserves. Topics of discussion included an outlook for world oil prices, geopolitical hotspots for oil exporting countries, and geopolitical warm spots for the former Soviet Union. The conference also featured a debate on oil supply, prices and markets for Canadian oil. The significant potential of the Western Canadian oil sands reserves was also discussed with reference to oil sands supply outlook and development issues. Several presentations reviewed environmental issues such as climate change and the responsible use of water. The conference also provided an opportunity for participants to discuss the role that non-conventional oil play will play in the current marketplace. Thirteen papers were indexed separately for inclusion in the database. tabs., figs

  4. The united states and the world oil security. US oil policy and production of a global collective good

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Noel, P.

    2004-07-01

    The aim of this paper is to define and discusses the part of the Unites States in the world oil system operating and more particularly the US oil security policy in the world policy. It refutes some established ideas as the necessity of the US military supremacy to provide the oil security, the necessity of ''agreements'' with oil exporting countries facing the US energy consumption increase or the limitation of the resources access to other countries. At the opposite the United States seem to invest in the production of a global public good in matter of energy security. In order to illustrate this opinion the author defines the problem of the US oil security in a world context. He analyzes then the US policies to show the impacts in the world oil security and studies the specific part of the military factor in the security policy. (A.L.B.)

  5. Energy security and climate change: How oil endowment influences alternative vehicle innovation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Jung Eun

    2014-01-01

    Fast growing global energy needs raise concerns on energy supply security and climate change. Although policies addressing the two issues sometimes benefit one at the expense of the other, technology innovation, especially in alternative energy, provides a win–win solution to tackle both issues. This paper examines the effect of oil endowment on the patterns of technology innovation in the transportation sector, attempting to identify drivers of technology innovation in alternative energy. The analysis employs panel data constructed from patent data on five different types of automobile-related technologies from 1990 to 2002: oil extraction, petroleum refining, fuel cells, electric and hybrid vehicles (EHV) and vehicle energy efficiency. I find that countries with larger oil endowments perform less innovation on refining and alternative technologies. Conversely, higher gasoline prices positively impact the patent counts of alternative technologies and energy efficiency technology. The findings highlight the challenges and importance of policy designs in international climate change agreements. - Highlights: • I examine the effect of oil endowment on technology innovation in the transportation sector. • An empirical model was developed for a cross-country analysis of oil endowments. • A country's oil endowment is a negative driver of alternative technologies. • Energy price is a positive driver of alternative technologies and energy efficiency technology. • Implications for domestic and international climate policy are discussed

  6. Strategic and tactical mathematical programming models within the crude oil supply chain context : A review

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sahebi, H.; Nickel, S.; Ashayeri, J.

    In today's business world, oil companies cannot be productive and competitive, and, thus, will not survive without taking the supply chain management concepts into account. Consequently, the management of a Crude Oil Supply Chain (COSC) is increasingly receiving substantial importance. The growing

  7. Oil supply between OPEC and non-OPEC based on game theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Yuwen; Yi, Jiexin; Yan, Wei; Yang, Xinshe; Zhang, Song; Gao, Yifan; Wang, Xi

    2014-10-01

    The competing strategies between OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) and non-OPEC producers make the oil supply market a complex system, and thus, it is very difficult to model and to make predictions. In this paper, we combine the macro-model based on game theory and micro-model to propose a new approach for forecasting oil supply. We take into account the microscopic behaviour in the clearing market and also use the game relationships to adjust oil supplies in our approach. For the supply model, we analyse and consider the different behaviour of non-OPEC and OPEC producers. According to our analysis, limiting the oil supply, and thus maintaining oil price, is the best strategy for OPEC in the low-price scenario, while the rising supply is the best strategy in the high-price scenario. No matter what the oil price is, the dominant strategy for non-OPEC producers is to increase their oil supply. In the high-price scenario, OPEC will try to deplete non-OPEC's share in the oil supply market, which is to OPEC's advantage.

  8. Maritime supply chain security: Navigating through a sea of compliance requirements

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emma Maspero

    2008-11-01

    Full Text Available As a direct result of the 9-11 New York attack all modes of freight and passengertransportation were scrutinised for vulnerabilities. Over 90% of international trade takes place via sea transport for at least some part of the supply chain and as a result there has been a drive to better secure maritime transportation. This paper outlines the background to and the rationale behind the most important of the new security measures for maritime transportation and provides an overview of the likely implications for supply chain role-players. In addition the paper endeavours to create awareness of the importance of maritime supply chain security.

  9. The German electricity market. Does the present market design provide security of supply?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Janssen, Matthias; Peichert, Patrick; Perner, Jens; Riechmann, Christoph; Niedrig, Thomas

    2014-01-01

    A heated discussion is being waged in Germany and large parts of Europe over the introduction of what are referred to as capacity mechanisms, whose purpose is to provide security of supply in the electricity sector. In this context two consulting firms have undertaken a both qualitative and quantitative study of the fitness of the present market design, which is based on the ''Energy-Only Market'' (EOM), to provide security of supply in the German electricity market. The authors come to the conclusion that, if suitably framed, the EOM can continue to provide a secure electricity supply in accordance with consumer preferences and at the lowest possible cost.

  10. Second strategic energy report of the European Union - more security of supply with nuclear power

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heller, W.

    2008-01-01

    On November 13, 2008, the EU Commission presented the Second Strategic Energy Report. The Report was supplemented by one proposed directive each on the security of gas supply and on oil stockpiling, by a multitude of measures to improve energy efficiency, and by 2 communications by the Commission on offshore wind energy and the nuclear program of the EU. The Commission attaches strategic importance in securing energy supply to the domestic energy resources, renewables, coal, and nuclear power. Moreover, the Commission assigns to the use of nuclear power an important role in the transition to an economy causing only a minimum of CO 2 emissions. The updated nuclear program contains these proposals: - The most up-to-date technology is to be employed in the construction of new reactors, and - the highest standards of nuclear safety are to be applied. - The diverse licensing conditions and procedures currently existing in the member states are to be harmonized. A few days earlier, the Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) of OECD had presented the 2008 Nuclear Energy Outlook in which the points raised by the EU Commission are outlined in the same sense for the OECD member countries. Germany clearly continues to be in an isolated position worldwide in opting out of the use of nuclear power. This raises the question when and in what way political majorities may again be found which would prevent the enforcement of laws in the interest of phasing out nuclear power, and get rid of the irrational blockages in spent fuel and nuclear waste management. (orig.)

  11. Country profiles: Lithuania [Analysis of energy supply options and security of energy supply in the Baltic States

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2007-01-01

    Lithuania is a very dependent country in terms of energy resources. In 2000 only about 13.8% of the primary energy requirement was covered by domestic resources. The remaining primary fuel requirement is imported from neighbouring countries, mainly from Russia - all crude oil, natural gas and nuclear fuel are imported from this country. There is a concern about the political and economic consequences of this dependence. There is a good interconnection with neighbouring countries for both electrical grid and gas pipelines. The supply of crude oil is also available via pipeline from Russia and two existing oil terminals from other countries, including orimulsion from Venezuela. Coal can be supplied by railway from both Russia and Poland

  12. Green paper. Towards a European strategy for the security of energy supply

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2001-07-01

    This Green Paper is the response to an observable fact: Europe growing future energy dependence. Its aim is to initiate a debate on the security of energy supply, an issue that is still very much alive. Three main points emerge from the Green Paper: the European Union will become increasingly dependent on external energy sources; enlargement will not change the situation; based on current forecasts, dependence will reach 70 % in 2030; the European Union has very limited scope to influence energy supply conditions (it is essentially on the demand side that the EU can intervene, mainly by promoting energy saving in buildings and the transport sector); at present, the European Union is not in a position to respond to the challenge of climate change and to meet its commitments, notably under the Kyoto Protocol. In these circumstances, the Commission would like the debate on the future strategy to be structured around the following principal questions: 1. Can the European Union accept an increase in its dependence on external energy sources without compromising its security of supply and European competitiveness? 2. Does not Europe increasingly integrated internal market, where decisions taken in one country have an impact on the others, call for a consistent and coordinated policy at Community level? What should such a policy consist of and where should competition rules fit in? 3. Are tax and State aid policies in the energy sector an obstacle to competitiveness in the European Union or not? 4. In the framework of an ongoing dialogue with producer countries, what should supply and investment promotion agreements contain? Given the importance of a partnership with Russia in particular, how can stable quantities, prices and investments be guaranteed? 5. Should more reserves be stockpiled, as already done for oils, and should other energy sources be included, such as gas or coal? Does the risk of physical disruption to energy supplies justify more onerous measures for

  13. Green paper. Towards a European strategy for the security of energy supply

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2001-01-01

    This Green Paper is the response to an observable fact: Europe growing future energy dependence. Its aim is to initiate a debate on the security of energy supply, an issue that is still very much alive. Three main points emerge from the Green Paper: the European Union will become increasingly dependent on external energy sources; enlargement will not change the situation; based on current forecasts, dependence will reach 70 % in 2030; the European Union has very limited scope to influence energy supply conditions (it is essentially on the demand side that the EU can intervene, mainly by promoting energy saving in buildings and the transport sector); at present, the European Union is not in a position to respond to the challenge of climate change and to meet its commitments, notably under the Kyoto Protocol. In these circumstances, the Commission would like the debate on the future strategy to be structured around the following principal questions: 1. Can the European Union accept an increase in its dependence on external energy sources without compromising its security of supply and European competitiveness? 2. Does not Europe increasingly integrated internal market, where decisions taken in one country have an impact on the others, call for a consistent and coordinated policy at Community level? What should such a policy consist of and where should competition rules fit in? 3. Are tax and State aid policies in the energy sector an obstacle to competitiveness in the European Union or not? 4. In the framework of an ongoing dialogue with producer countries, what should supply and investment promotion agreements contain? Given the importance of a partnership with Russia in particular, how can stable quantities, prices and investments be guaranteed? 5. Should more reserves be stockpiled, as already done for oils, and should other energy sources be included, such as gas or coal? Does the risk of physical disruption to energy supplies justify more onerous measures for

  14. Clean and Secure Energy from Domestic Oil Shale and Oil Sands Resources

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Spinti, Jennifer [Inst. for Clean and Secure Energy, Salt Lake City, UT (United States); Birgenheier, Lauren [Inst. for Clean and Secure Energy, Salt Lake City, UT (United States); Deo, Milind [Inst. for Clean and Secure Energy, Salt Lake City, UT (United States); Facelli, Julio [Inst. for Clean and Secure Energy, Salt Lake City, UT (United States); Hradisky, Michal [Inst. for Clean and Secure Energy, Salt Lake City, UT (United States); Kelly, Kerry [Inst. for Clean and Secure Energy, Salt Lake City, UT (United States); Miller, Jan [Inst. for Clean and Secure Energy, Salt Lake City, UT (United States); McLennan, John [Inst. for Clean and Secure Energy, Salt Lake City, UT (United States); Ring, Terry [Inst. for Clean and Secure Energy, Salt Lake City, UT (United States); Ruple, John [Inst. for Clean and Secure Energy, Salt Lake City, UT (United States); Uchitel, Kirsten [Inst. for Clean and Secure Energy, Salt Lake City, UT (United States)

    2015-09-30

    This report summarizes the significant findings from the Clean and Secure Energy from Domestic Oil Shale and Oil Sands Resources program sponsored by the Department of Energy through the National Energy Technology Laboratory. There were four principle areas of research; Environmental, legal, and policy issues related to development of oil shale and oil sands resources; Economic and environmental assessment of domestic unconventional fuels industry; Basin-scale assessment of conventional and unconventional fuel development impacts; and Liquid fuel production by in situ thermal processing of oil shale Multiple research projects were conducted in each area and the results have been communicated via sponsored conferences, conference presentations, invited talks, interviews with the media, numerous topical reports, journal publications, and a book that summarizes much of the oil shale research relating to Utah’s Uinta Basin. In addition, a repository of materials related to oil shale and oil sands has been created within the University of Utah’s Institutional Repository, including the materials generated during this research program. Below is a listing of all topical and progress reports generated by this project and submitted to the Office of Science and Technical Information (OSTI). A listing of all peer-reviewed publications generated as a result of this project is included at the end of this report; Geomechanical and Fluid Transport Properties 1 (December, 2015); Validation Results for Core-Scale Oil Shale Pyrolysis (February, 2015); and Rates and Mechanisms of Oil Shale Pyrolysis: A Chemical Structure Approach (November, 2014); Policy Issues Associated With Using Simulation to Assess Environmental Impacts (November, 2014); Policy Analysis of the Canadian Oil Sands Experience (September, 2013); V-UQ of Generation 1 Simulator with AMSO Experimental Data (August, 2013); Lands with Wilderness Characteristics, Resource Management Plan Constraints, and Land Exchanges

  15. Latest data shows long-term security of uranium supply

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2010-01-01

    Full text: According to Uranium 2009: Resources, Production and Demand just published by the OECD Nuclear En ergy Agency (NEA) and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), uranium resources, production and demand are all on the rise. Exploration efforts have increased recently in line with the expected expansion of nuclear energy in the coming years. Total identified resources have grown but so too have costs of production. Worldwide exploration and mine development expenditures have more than doubled since the publication of the previous edition, Uranium 2007: Resources, Production and Demand. These expenditures have increased despite declining uranium market prices since mid- 2007. The uranium resources presented in this edition, reflecting the situation as of 1 January 2009, show that total identified resources amounted to 6 306 300 tU, an increase of about 15% compared to 2007, including those reported in the high-cost category (< USD 260/kgU or < USD 100/lbU O), reintroduced for the first time since the 1980s. This high-cost 3 8 category was used in the 2009 edition in response to the generally increased market prices for uranium in recent years, despite the decline since mid-2007, expectations of increasing demand as new nuclear power plants are being planned and built, and increased mining costs. Although total identified resources have increased overall, there has been a significant reduction in lower-cost resources owing to increased mining costs. At 2008 rates of consumption, total identified resources are sufficient for over 100 years of supply. The recognition by an increasing number of governments that nuclear power can produce competitively priced, baseload electricity that is essentially free of greenhouse gas emissions, coupled with the role that nuclear can play in enhancing security of energy supply, increases the prospects for growth in nuclear generating capacity, although the magnitude of that growth remains to be determined. According to

  16. Security of gas supply in open markets. LNG and power at a turning point

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2004-01-01

    Since the 'IEA Study on Security of Gas Supply' was published in 1995, many member countries have started to open their gas and electricity markets to competition. Governments progressively withdrew from directly managing the gas sector; they concentrate now on setting objectives and the framework for competition. With the continued growth of gas demand and the decline of domestic reserves, most IEA countries have to import more gas, mainly for power generation. This requires access to gas reserves at competitive conditions, as well as timely investment in new infrastructure to ensure a reliable gas supply. Reform has led to open markets, where supply and demand are balanced by the market. In the gas sector, supply is capacity-bound and large parts of the demand side are inelastic. The study looks at how governments and other stakeholders in IEA countries respond to the need to create a framework that enables the players to deliver secure and reliable gas supply at the border and all the way down to the final customer. This book analyses the most recent developments in security of gas supply and reliability in all IEA regions in the context of open markets and in view of the new demand and supply trends. A CD-Rom featuring the positions of the main stakeholders (governments, regulators, industry, customers and other organisations) is included with the publication. 'Security of Gas Supply in Open Markets' is a follow-up of 'Flexibility in Natural Gas Supply and Demand' in the IEA series on energy market reforms

  17. What is the place of the energy supply security and energy independence in the energy policy?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2001-12-01

    Since the petroleum crisis and the electric power cuts of the 1999 storm, the energy security interest is growing. The author recall the structural risks of the energy systems and the vulnerability of the occidental economies to the supply disruptions. They propose then a long term cooperation between producer and consumer countries, a development of operational tools to face the crisis and a supply security inside the europe. (A.L.B.)

  18. Managed groundwater development for water-supply security in Sub ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    security in Sub-Saharan Africa: Investment priorities ... 2010, together with a review of some developments in western Africa and insights from parts of Asia and Latin America. ...... and the Global Water Partnership (Ania Grobicki and Aurelie.

  19. European Gas Market Liberalisation. Competition versus security of supply?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haase, N.

    2009-01-01

    of regulatory regime on performance indicators reflecting economic and political regulatory goals such as natural gas prices, tariffs, efficiency and investment in natural gas infrastructure. In doing so, we are effectively investigating the effect of layer 3 on layer 4 in Williamson's model. The third part comprises the qualitative case studies with which we aim to move from a static to a more dynamic perspective of the regulatory process. In two case studies, we investigate whether the distribution of energy policy priorities in a multi-authority structure does influence the regulatory outcome (hypothesis 3). Next, in chapter 10, the focus switches to the revision of incentive regulation in the Netherlands, which had the aim of reducing transmission tariffs. The case study seeks to explain the shift from a revenue-cap regulation to rate-of-return regulation taking place in 2007. In chapter 11, we examine the decision by UK regulatory authorities in 2006-07 not to compel the gas industry to provide additional gas storage, which would have reduced price volatility and enhanced security of gas supply. In the concluding chapter, we summarise our main findings and answer our research questions. To facilitate this we revisit our theoretical approach and evaluate the opportunities and limitations of New Institutional Economics in general and, more specifically, Williamson's transaction cost approach in the form of the four-layer model. Following this, the empirical results of the quantitative and qualitative analyses are discussed.

  20. Evaluating the Security of the Global Containerized Supply Chain

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Willis, Henry H; Ortiz, David S

    2004-01-01

    The global supply chain is the network of suppliers, manufacturing centers, warehouses, distribution centers, and retail outlets that transforms raw materials into finished products and delivers them to consumers...

  1. Ecology, Economy and security of supply of the Dutch Electricity Supply System. A scenario based future analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roedel, J.G.

    2008-01-01

    The Dutch electricity sector has been transformed into a liberalized international energy market. Market players are free to choose from various electricity generation options when replacing or expanding production capacity. However, choices that are made now will influence emissions (ecology), integral costs (economy) and availability (security of supply) for the next 25 - 40 years. This thesis shows if and how, based on the current electricity supply system, an optimal balance of ecology, economy and security of supply can be achieved. First, the current electricity supply system is described to create a frame of reference. Then, future technological developments are described for electricity production options. Four potential scenarios are constructed featuring various uncertainties: the globalising versus the local economy; priority versus subordination for the environment; and the security/insecurity of the fuel supply. These four scenarios are worked out with a specially developed techno-economic simulation model; the results are analysed in terms of ecology, economy and security of supply. The findings indicate that it is impossible to arrive at an optimal balance for the defined scenarios. Scenarios with a low environmental impact lead to high integral costs and vice versa. However, by applying a smart combination of various modern generation technologies, CO2 capture and storage, the deployment of biomass and the re-use of residual heat it is possible to reach an optimal balance whereby the additional integral costs can be kept under control compared with the lowest-cost scenarios. To achieve this, clear growth and incentive guidelines need to be established for the various production options. This thesis will form a good starting point for that exercise

  2. The security of energy infrastructure and supply in North Africa: Hydrocarbons and renewable energies in comparative perspective

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lacher, Wolfram, E-mail: wolfram.lacher@swp-berlin.org [Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik/German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP), Berlin (Germany); Kumetat, Dennis, E-mail: d.kumetat@lse.ac.uk [Department of Geography and Environment, London School of Economics and Political Science, London (United Kingdom)

    2011-08-15

    While security risks to energy infrastructure and supply are frequently cited as a source of concern in the public debate on Europe's energy relationships with North Africa, few academic publications have addressed the issue to date. This article focuses on two potential threats to energy security in the North African context: first, intenational disruption of energy supplies by governments; second, attacks by non-state actors on energy infrastructure. Based on an analysis of North African security and energy geopolitics, the article provides an assessment of these threats as they have materialized with regard to existing energy industries, particularly oil and gas. The article then seeks to apply the findings to renewable energy schemes that are currently being discussed and developed, gauging the likelihood and impact of such threats materializing in respect to various technologies, and differentiating between different states of the region. Finally, the article provides recommendations for policy and further research needs for a successful common European-North African energy future. - Research Highlights: >Interest for investments into renewable energy projects in North Africa is growing. >Perceptions of political/security risks to renewables in North Africa are exaggerated. >Investment in renewables would boost interdependencies between Europe, North Africa. >Terrorist attacks unlikely to pose a major threat to renewables projects in North Africa.

  3. The security of energy infrastructure and supply in North Africa: Hydrocarbons and renewable energies in comparative perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lacher, Wolfram; Kumetat, Dennis

    2011-01-01

    While security risks to energy infrastructure and supply are frequently cited as a source of concern in the public debate on Europe's energy relationships with North Africa, few academic publications have addressed the issue to date. This article focuses on two potential threats to energy security in the North African context: first, intenational disruption of energy supplies by governments; second, attacks by non-state actors on energy infrastructure. Based on an analysis of North African security and energy geopolitics, the article provides an assessment of these threats as they have materialized with regard to existing energy industries, particularly oil and gas. The article then seeks to apply the findings to renewable energy schemes that are currently being discussed and developed, gauging the likelihood and impact of such threats materializing in respect to various technologies, and differentiating between different states of the region. Finally, the article provides recommendations for policy and further research needs for a successful common European-North African energy future. - Research Highlights: →Interest for investments into renewable energy projects in North Africa is growing. →Perceptions of political/security risks to renewables in North Africa are exaggerated. →Investment in renewables would boost interdependencies between Europe, North Africa. →Terrorist attacks unlikely to pose a major threat to renewables projects in North Africa.

  4. Markets during world oil supply crises: an analysis of industry, consumer, and governmental response

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Erfle, Stephen; Pound, John; Kalt, Joseph

    1981-04-01

    An analysis of the response of American markets to supply crises in world oil markets is presented. It addresses four main issues: the efficiency of the operation of American oil markets during oil supply crises; the problems of both economic efficiency and social equity which arise during the American adaptation process; the propriety of the Federal government's past policy responses to these problems; and the relationship between perceptions of the problems caused by world oil crises and the real economic natures of these problems. Specifically, Chapter 1 presents a theoretical discussion of the effects of a world supply disruption on the price level and supply availability of the world market oil to any consuming country including the US Chapter 2 provides a theoretical and empirical analysis of the efficiency of the adaptations of US oil product markets to higher world oil prices. Chapter 3 examines the responses of various groups of US oil firms to the alterations observed in world markets, while Chapter 4 presents a theoretical explanation for the price-lagging behavior exhibited by firms in the US oil industry. Chapter 5 addresses the nature of both real and imagined oil market problems in the US during periods of world oil market transition. (MCW)

  5. Conference on the security of electricity supply: France-Germany crossed views

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Caron, Antoine; Kaelble, Laure; Maurer, Christoph; Veyrenc, Thomas; Roques, Fabien; Jacquemart, Yannick; John, Oliver

    2015-01-01

    The French-German office for Renewable energies (OFAEnR), in cooperation with the French transmission system operator - RTE, organised a conference on security of electricity supply in France and in Germany. In the framework of this French-German exchange of experience, about 160 participants exchanged their views on the following topics: the regulatory framework and the legal instruments for ensuring the security of supply, the role of energy transmission system operators, the role of renewable energies in the electricity market and their impact on the security of supplies. This document brings together the available presentations (slides) made during this event: 1 - Security of supply and electricity markets (Antoine Caron); 2 - White Paper on electricity Market Design (Laure Kaelble); 3 - Security of Supply - Concept and Definition: On the Way to a Common Understanding? (Christoph Maurer); 4 - The French capacity market: lessons learnt and way forward (Thomas Veyrenc); 5 - electricity market evolutions: divergencies and compatibilities between French and German models? (Fabien Roques); 6 - Infrastructures and European coordination: action of the French transmission system operator - RTE (Yannick Jacquemart); 7 - Interconnection and Security of Supply - experiences of the German TSO Amprion at the French-German Border (Oliver John)

  6. Papers of the Canadian Institute's 3. annual conference : oil sands supply and infrastructure : labour supply, upgraders, transportation, pipelines

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2005-01-01

    The focus of this conference was on the development of the oil sands industry, with specific reference to issues concerning supply and infrastructure. Energy source development and transmission issues were discussed, as well as transportation systems. The impact of increased oil sands development on pipelines was also examined. Various fuel options were discussed, including the use of hydrogen, natural gas and alternate fuels in manufacturing and processing plants. Economic drivers and the creation of new markets were examined, and various export opportunities were reviewed. The environmental impact of increased oil sands activity was discussed, with specific reference to the Boreal regions. Management challenges in the oil sands industry were also discussed along with issues concerning human resources, labour supply, training and education. The conference featured 15 presentations, of which 13 have been catalogued separately for inclusion in this database. refs., tabs., figs

  7. Infrastructure, Attitude and Weather: Today’s Threats to Supply Chain Security

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stephen Blank

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The global economy can be viewed today as a myriad of border-crossing supply chain networks of production, supply, distribution and marketing systems. Given the enormous value embodied in these systems, and an environment increasingly characterized by uncertainty and vulnerability, it is not surprising that concern about supply chain security has intensified. Concern takes many forms. For example, how supply chains might be used as vehicles for criminal activity (smuggling, trafficking of narcotics and importing counterfeit goods or acts of terrorism (radio-active materials, bombs, even nukes in containers. Technology-based threats to supply chains, such as cybercrimes, data breaches and IT failures, now appear more frequently in the literature on supply chain security. These threats could result in substantial disruption to supply chains and damage to companies and their customers.Clima But larger storms are brewing, whose menace to supply chain security is greater still – and where actions to protect supply chains move more slowly. These include the continued deterioration of transportation infrastructure, a new posture on trade which views supply chains as threats to jobs and wages, and the impact of climate change. These threats do not lie off in the distant future; they are threats of today and tomorrow.

  8. SCOR based key success factors in cooking oil supply chain buyers perspective in Padang City

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zahara, Fatimah; Hadiguna, Rika Ampuh

    2017-11-01

    Supply chain of cooking oil is a network of companies from palm oil as raw material to retailers which work to create the value and deliver products into the end consumers. This paper is aimed to study key success factors based on consumer's perspective as the last stage in the supply chain. Consumers who are examined in this study are restaurants management or owners. Restaurant is the biggest consumption of cooking oil. The factors is studied based on Supply Chain Operation Reference (SCOR) version 10.0. Factors used are formulated based on the third-level metrics of SCOR Model. Factors are analyzed using factors analysis. This study found factors which become key success factors in managing supply chain of cooking oil encompass reliability, responsiveness and agility. Key success factors can be applied by governments as policy making and cooking oil companies as formulation of the distribution strategies.

  9. Measuring the security of external energy supply in the European Union

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Le Coq, Chloe; Paltseva, Elena

    2009-01-01

    The security of energy supply is one of the main objectives of EU energy policy. In this paper, we introduce an index designed to evaluate the short-term risks associated with the external supply of energy to the EU Member States. It combines measures of energy import diversification, political...

  10. Developing a Comprehensive Approach Could Help DOD Better Manage National Security Risks in the Supply Chain

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-02-01

    supply chains for rare earths.20 According to Industrial Analysis Center officials, only 10 percent of surveys sent to prime contractors for 79...the Supply Chain Report to Congressional Committees February 2016 GAO-16-161 United States Government Accountability Office United...Developing a Comprehensive Approach Could Help DOD Better Manage National Security Risks in the Supply Chain Why GAO Did This Study DOD depends on

  11. Diversification of oil import sources and energy security. A key strategy or an elusive objective?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vivoda, Vlado

    2009-01-01

    This paper explores the relationship between the diversification of sources of imported oil and energy security of oil-importing countries. It examines the importance of diversification policy for oil importers, explains why oil importers implement oil diversification policy, and contextualizes the oil import diversification strategy in the overall energy security policy of oil importers. The paper analyzes the factors and the contexts that affect the level of importance assigned to oil import diversification policy in oil-importing countries, and the limitations that may affect the successful implication of oil import diversification policy. The examples are drawn from the world's top three oil importers, the United States, Japan, and China. The policymakers in these and other oil-importing countries place much importance on energy security. The diversification of oil import sources is used as one of the strategies to enhance energy security in oil-importing countries. This paper is important for policymakers in oil-importing countries as it provides them with a qualitative conceptual framework with which to evaluate the need to diversify their countries' sources of imported oil, and with which to identify the likely limitations to the successful implementation of oil import diversification policy. (author)

  12. VGB-congress power plants 2013. Security of supply - from challenges to solutions. Opening address

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jaeger, Gerd

    2014-01-01

    The VGB Congress 'Power Plants 2013' took place in Masstricht/NL from September 25 to 27, 2013 under the motto 'Security of Supply - From Challenges to Solutions'. Experts from 31 countries attended the largest European congress for power and heat generation to discuss and inform about current issues. The congress comprised the sections 'Security of Supply: A Common European Challenge', 'Technical Solutions for our Future Electricity Generation', 'Operational Experience as Key Competence' and 'Thinking Ahead: Projects and Visions 2020+' where participants and lecturers dealt with the future challenges of European power supply. (orig.)

  13. The oil supply mountain - is the summit in sight?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barnes, Philip.

    1993-01-01

    A brief review of the current status of global oil reserves and the prospects of recovering this oil at prices less than $30 a barrel is presented. In addition to the uncertainties over the volumes of recoverable oil at various costs, there are many uncertainties not least geopolitical ones. (UK)

  14. Mixed Integer Linear Programming model for Crude Palm Oil Supply Chain Planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sembiring, Pasukat; Mawengkang, Herman; Sadyadharma, Hendaru; Bu'ulolo, F.; Fajriana

    2018-01-01

    The production process of crude palm oil (CPO) can be defined as the milling process of raw materials, called fresh fruit bunch (FFB) into end products palm oil. The process usually through a series of steps producing and consuming intermediate products. The CPO milling industry considered in this paper does not have oil palm plantation, therefore the FFB are supplied by several public oil palm plantations. Due to the limited availability of FFB, then it is necessary to choose from which plantations would be appropriate. This paper proposes a mixed integer linear programming model the supply chain integrated problem, which include waste processing. The mathematical programming model is solved using neighborhood search approach.

  15. Managed groundwater development for water-supply security in Sub ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    What is the scope for promoting much increased groundwater use for irrigated agriculture, and how might the investment risks be reduced and sustainable outcomes ensured? • How can the demand to expand urban groundwater use, for both further supplementing municipal water-supply systems and for direct in situ water ...

  16. Can Slovakia secure reliable electricity supply without nuclear?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pnacek, I.

    2004-01-01

    In this presentation author deals with structure of electricity production in the Slovak republic in 2006 and perspectives of electricity supply up to 2020 year. Decommissioning of Unit 1 and Unit 2 of the Bohunice NPP and completion of Unit 3 and 4 of the Mochovce NPP are discussed

  17. Securing innovation through a differentiated supply system : The fashion industry

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kamann, Dirk-Jan F.; Steller, Daan; Kaminishi, K; Duysters, G

    2007-01-01

    This paper describes a Situation where next to very innovative goods with short life cycles and volatile demand, rather commodity type goods are carried with more stable demand. A 'Two Lane Strategy' is described, with two different configurations of actors in the company's supply system. In each of

  18. California demand and supply of crude oil: An econometric analysis with projections to 2000

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ibegbulam, B.N.

    1991-01-01

    Forecast of California domestic crude oil supply requires the forecasts of California crude oil production and supply from Alaska. Future California crude oil production is forecast with an econometric model that postulates production as a function of reserves and reserves as a function of crude oil prices and exploration and development costs. Future supplies from Alaska are obtained by subtracting forecasts of Alaskan crude oil demand and shipments to the States of Hawaii, Oregon, and Washington from Alaskan North Slope crude oil production forecasts. A two-stage process was used to forecast future California crude oil demand. In the first stage, the demand for refined crude oil products was predicted with a single-equation double logarithmic rational-expectations dynamic model. In the second stage, the total demands obtained in the first stage were converted into a crude oil equivalent. It was found that the current surplus of domestic crude oil in California will end in 1994. Thereafter, California crude oil imports will sharply increase

  19. Arms, oil and security in the Gulf: a tenuous balance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Herzog, Serge

    1999-01-01

    The GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council) countries are among the world's biggest importers of weapons. It is argued that the current policy for security i.e. awarding big defence contracts in return for Western security commitments, is untenable - the income (now falling) is better spent on improving the quality of life through increased wages, better public services and improved social programmes. Data illustrating the dependency on oil of several GCC countries are given. It is also argued that the need for high quality personnel in the weapons field starves the economy with respect to diversification demands and the need to reduce dependency on foreign labour. The military strength and defence needs of the GCC countries and the role of the western world in defending GCC countries are discussed. The potential military threat from Iran and Iraq is mentioned: it appears unlikely that the GCC would be able to cope with aggression from these two countries without outside help

  20. Oil for What?—Illicit Iraqi Oil Contracts and the U.N. Security Council

    OpenAIRE

    Paul Heaton

    2005-01-01

    The Oil-For-Food program was established by United Nations Security Council Resolution 986 in 1995 as a means of providing humanitarian relief to Iraq, which had been under U.N. economic sanctions since the Persian Gulf War in 1991. After the invasion of Iraq, considerable evidence emerged suggesting that Saddam Hussein was able to subvert the Oil-For-Food program to obtain hard currency as well as items on the United Nation's prohibited transfer list. In this paper, I use recently available ...

  1. Inferred demand and supply elasticities from a comparison of world oil models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huntington, H.G.

    1992-01-01

    This paper summarizes the responses of oil supply and demand to prices and income in 11 world oil models that were compared in a recent Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) study. In May 1989, the EMF commenced a study of international oil supplies and demands (hereafter, EMF-11) to compare alternative perspectives on supply and demand issues and how these developments influence the level and direction of world oil prices. In analysing these issues, the EMF-11 working group relied partly upon results from 11 world oil models, using standardized assumptions about oil prices and gross domestic product (GDP). During the study, inferred price elasticities of supply and demand were derived from a comparison of results across different oil price scenarios with the same GDP growth path. Inferred income elasticities of demand were derived from a comparison of results across different economic growth scenarios with the same oil price-path. Together, these estimates summarize several important relationships for understanding oil markets. The first section provides some background on the EMF study and on general trends in the scenarios of interest that help to understand the results. Following sections explain the derivation and qualifications of the inferred estimates, report the results and summarize the key conclusions. (author)

  2. Peak-load management, the security of supply warranty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2010-01-01

    Even if France owns an efficient power generation park, largely exporting and clean (90% with no CO 2 emission), it encounters some difficulties during peak-load periods. The successive peak power demand records which are recorded each year represent as many alerts about a possible collapse of the power system. In order to warrant the electricity supply, the present day regulatory framework must be changed to allow the industrial players to carry out the necessary investments

  3. Impact Of The Oil Trade On The Global Economy And The Role Of Giant Fields In Predicting Supply

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kelley, Wayne; Bishop, Richard

    2010-09-15

    Confusion about global oil supply ('peak oil') is a distraction from the economic issue of massive wealth transfer associated with oil trading and its potential to destabilize the world economy. Without an accurate forecast of oil volumes (resources, reserves and supply), timing and cost, there is no reliable way to model the consequences of the oil trade on the global economy. This paper illustrates why it is imperative to improve our understanding of the oil trade on the global economy and proposes a method of forecasting oil supply for input into a credible global economic model.

  4. Dominant Middle East oil reserves critically important to world supply

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Riva, J.P. Jr.

    1991-01-01

    This paper reports that the location production, and transportation of the 60 million bbl of oil consumed in the world each day is of vital importance to relations between nations, as well as to their economic wellbeing. Oil has frequently been a decisive factor in the determination of foreign policy. The war in the Persian Gulf, while a dramatic example of the critical importance of oil, is just the latest of a long line of oil-influenced diplomatic/military incidents, which may be expected to continue. Assuming that the world's remaining oil was evenly distributed and demand did not grow, if exploration and development proceeded as efficiently as they have in the U.S., world oil production could be sustained at around current levels to about the middle of the next century. It then would begin a long decline in response to a depleting resource base. However, the world's remaining oil is very unevenly distributed. It is located primarily in the Eastern Hemisphere, mostly in the Persian Gulf, and much is controlled by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. Scientific resource assessments indicate that about half of the world's remaining conventionally recoverable crude oil resource occurs in the Persian Gulf area. In terms of proved reserves (known recoverable oil), the Persian Gulf portion increase to almost two-thirds

  5. 75 FR 15440 - Guidance for Industry on Standards for Securing the Drug Supply Chain-Standardized Numerical...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-03-29

    ...] Guidance for Industry on Standards for Securing the Drug Supply Chain--Standardized Numerical... industry entitled ``Standards for Securing the Drug Supply Chain-Standardized Numerical Identification for... the Drug Supply Chain-Standardized Numerical Identification for Prescription Drug Packages.'' In the...

  6. Non-OPEC oil supply gains to outpace demand in 1997

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beck, R.J.

    1997-01-01

    Rising oil supplies in 1997 will relax some of the market tightness that drove up crude prices last year. Worldwide demand for petroleum products in 1996 rose faster than anticipated and faster than supply from outside the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. This increased demand for OPEC oil and pushed up prices for crude. At year end, the world export price of crude was up more than 25% from the same period a year earlier. Market conditions will change in 1997. While worldwide economic growth will continue to boost demand for energy and petroleum, non-OPEC petroleum supply will grow even more. Increases in North Sea and Latin American production will help boost non-OPEC output by 1.9 million b/d. And revenues from 1996 production gains will make additional investment possible in exploration and production. The paper discusses world economic growth, world oil demand, worldwide supply, supply outlook, prices and international drilling

  7. The Role of Information Security Management Systems in Supply Chain Performance Improvement

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammad Reza Taghva

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available In recent years, the researchers have emphasized on positive effect of information system on supply chain performance such as organizational processes integration, information sharing, information technology, etc. In other hand, information security management system is one of the subjects that researches considered its effects on increase accuracy and effective information exchange, access to accurate and timely information and reduce errors of information system. Since, any research has not been done on this ground (the importance of ISMS on supply chain performance. Therefore, it was felt that a research should have done on these approaches on supply chain. In this respect, current research was seeking that how ISMS had impact on supply chain performance in automotive industry and this was the innovative aspect of this paper. So first of all, after the review of the information security management system literature, supply chain performance was considered by the balanced scorecard approach then the most important factors of these two subjects was extracted by correlation analysis. In this way, it was considered that how ISMS had impact on supply chain performance by correlation analysis. The results showed that different dimensions of ISMS (information uniformity, prevent the human and machine mistake, information be accuracy, and rectitude and instruction for users had impact on four dimensions of supply chain performance (customers, financial, internal processes and learning and growth in three levels (strategic, technical, and operational in supply chain. At the end, it was showed that ISMS lays the ground for increase supply chain performance.

  8. Portland Energy Centre: Securing supply and clearing the air

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2003-02-01

    The rationale for, and benefits derivable from the proposed Portland natural gas-fired cogeneration plant, to be located beside the former Hearn power station near the Leslie Street Spit in Toronto, are discussed. The justification for and the single most important benefit promised by the proposed plant is that it could help Ontario achieve its coal phase-out target by displacing 100 per cent of the annual output of the Lakeview coal--fired power plant in Mississauga, as well as six per cent of the annual output of the Nanticoke coal-fired power plant, in total supplying about 10 per cent of Toronto's electricity needs and providing steam to heat several office towers in downtown Toronto. Other benefits discussed include substantially improved air quality, reduced incidence of asthma and heart attacks, a more reliable power supply for Toronto, some 500 new jobs during construction, and 25 to 35 permanent jobs to operate the plant. The Fact Sheet also offers suggestions on how to generate political support for this project in particular and for renewable power sources in general

  9. A multilayered analysis of energy security research and the energy supply process

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kiriyama, Eriko; Kajikawa, Yuya

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • The analysis reveals that energy security research is highly multidisciplinary. • Diversification is important for ensuring security in the energy supply process. • A multilayered overview of the energy supply process is important for energy risk management. • Consumer lifestyle innovation will be a part of energy security in the future. - Abstract: After the Fukushima nuclear disaster, a reassessment of the energy system is needed in order to include such aspects as human security and resilience. More open and careful discussions are needed concerning the various risks and uncertainties of future energy options, both in Japan and globally. In this paper, we aim to offer a fundamental basis for discourse on energy security by analyzing the status and trends in academic publications on that issue. Our bibliometrics analysis indicates that research has shifted from promoting strategies for ensuring the self-sufficiency of the primary energy to diversification of the secondary energy supply chain by introducing energy networks consisting of an infrastructure established through international coordination. In the literature, the concept of energy security is ambiguous and allows for multiple interpretations. Our results illustrate the existence of highly multidisciplinary topics within energy security, which can be categorized into four perspectives: geopolitical, economic, policy related, and technological

  10. Finding the food-fuel balance. Supply and demand dynamics in global vegetable oil markets

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Savanti, P.

    2012-10-15

    Demand for vegetable oils for food and biofuel use is expected to increase by an additional 23 million tonnes by 2016; however supply is expected to struggle to keep up with this demand, according to this Rabobank report. Vegetable oil stocks have reached a 38 year low this year due in large part to constraints such as land availability and adverse weather.

  11. Questioning the sustainable palm oil demand: case study from French-Indonesia supply chain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chalil, D.; Barus, R.

    2018-02-01

    Sustainable palm oil has been widely debated. Consuming countries insist certified sustainable produces palm oil, but in fact the absorption of the certified palm oil is still less than 60%. This raise questions about the sustainable palm oil demand. In this study, such a condition will be analysed in French-Indonesia supply chain case. Using monthly and quarterly data from 2010 to 2016 with Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach and Error Correction Model, demand influencing factors and price integration in each market of the supply chain is estimated. Two scenarios namely re-export and direct export models are considered in the Error Correction Model. The results show that France Gross Domestic Product, prices of France palm oil import from Indonesia, Malaysia, and Germany, and price of France groundnut import significantly influence the France palm oil import volume from Indonesia. Prices in each market along palm oil re-export France-Indonesia supply chain are co-integrated and converge towards long-run equilibrium, but not in the direct export supply chain. This leads to a conclusion that France market preferences in specific and EU market preferences in general need to be considered by Indonesian palm oil decision makers.

  12. Oil-Price Shocks: Beyond Standard Aggregate Demand/Aggregate Supply Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elwood, S. Kirk

    2001-01-01

    Explores the problems of portraying oil-price shocks using the aggregate demand/aggregate supply model. Presents a simple modification of the model that differentiates between production and absorption of goods, which enables it to better reflect the effects of oil-price shocks on open economies. (RLH)

  13. Secured electrical supply at least cost: Coal, gas, nuclear, hydro

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gavor, J. [ENA Ltd., Prague (Czechoslovakia); Stary, O.; Vasicek, J. [Czech Technical Univ., Prague (Czechoslovakia)

    1995-12-01

    Electric power sector in East Central European countries finds in a difficult period. In the situation of demand stagnation, enormous investments must be realized in a very short time. Today`s decisions in the development strategy will influence the long term future of the industry. The optimal structure of the sources is one of the most important problem to be solved. Paper describes the current structure of the sources in electric power sector in the Czech Republic. The importance of coal, oil and gas, nuclear and hydro in electric power generation is compared. Taking into account the different position in the load coverage, economy of individual sources is evaluated and basic results of discounted cash flow calculations are presented. Information on specific investment programs and projects are included and further trends are estimated.

  14. 77 FR 39745 - Fuel Oil Systems for Emergency Power Supplies

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-07-05

    ... fuel oil systems for safety-related emergency diesel generators and oil-fueled gas turbine generators... Commission, Washington, DC 20555-0001. Fax comments to: RADB at 301-492-3446. For additional direction on... New Reactors, U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Washington, DC 20555-0001, telephone: 301-415-8503...

  15. Is oil supply choked by financial market pressures?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Osmundsen, P.; Mohn, K.; Misund, B.; Asche, F.

    2007-01-01

    Since the late 1990s, financial analysts have focused strongly on short-term profitability for benchmarking and valuation of international oil and gas companies. The increasing pressure for strict capital discipline among oil and gas companies may have reduced their willingness to invest for future reserves and production growth. The current high oil price is partly due to low exploration activity in the oil industry the last decade. We present and discuss the background for this development - based on previous academic research, industry trends and current valuation practices. An estimated econometric model of stock market valuation among oil and gas companies suggests that analysts and companies have put exaggerate weight on short-term earnings and accounting profitability. We therefore expect that the attention will shift back to long-term reserve and production growth. (author)

  16. Is oil supply choked by financial market pressures?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Osmundsen, Petter; Mohn, Klaus; Misund, Bard; Asche, Frank

    2007-01-01

    Since the late 1990s, financial analysts have focused strongly on short-term profitability for benchmarking and valuation of international oil and gas companies. The increasing pressure for strict capital discipline among oil and gas companies may have reduced their willingness to invest for future reserves and production growth. The current high oil price is partly due to low exploration activity in the oil industry the last decade. We present and discuss the background for this development-based on previous academic research, industry trends and current valuation practices. An estimated econometric model of stock market valuation among oil and gas companies suggests that analysts and companies have put exaggerate weight on short-term earnings and accounting profitability. We therefore expect that the attention will shift back to long-term reserve and production growth

  17. Walk the Talk: Progress in Building a Supply Chain Security Culture

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hund, Gretchen [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2016-08-31

    Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) has engaged industry to “go beyond compliance” for over a decade in controlling and securing their supply chains to ensure their goods are not diverted to nuclear weapons programs. This work has focused on dual-use industries that manufacture products that can be used in both commercial applications and in the development of a nuclear weapon. The team encourages industry to self-regulate to reduce proliferation risks. As part of that work, PNNL interviewed numerous companies about their compliance practices to understand their business and to build awareness around best practices to ensure security of goods, technology, and information along their supply chains. From conducting this work, PNNL identified indicators that a company can adopt as part of its commitment to nonproliferation ideals with a focus on supply chain security.

  18. Impact of market forces on security of supply; Markedsgoerelse af forsyningssikkerhed

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Klinge Jakobsen, H.; Kromann, M.T.; Hoermann, M. (and others)

    2010-05-15

    Marketisation of security of supply can result in efficiency in the overall energy system and cost savings for end users. The analyses show that savings may be gained, particularly in connection with the part of security of supply which is about sufficiency. With modern metering and communication equipment, it is realistic that all consumers have the opportunity to express an upper limit on the price of electricity. In the near future, selected consumption may be turned off at extremely high prices. Those parts of the security of supply, that relates to local networks and that are of the nature of a collective benefit, may be more difficult to make market-oriented. There is, however, already some marketisation, as firms with particularly critical use of electricity invest in backup power plants. The report describes methods for the regulation of grid companies, including cost control, which gives them an incentive to balance the investment in improvements to the security of supply against the cost. Marketisation of security of supply can be done in several steps. Here the following steps are analyzed: a) Cost visibility and reduction; b) Establishment of level of security of supply based on consumer preferences (cost of losses); c) Security of supply varying between consumers, duration and timing; d) Individual level of security of supply. It is at present generally difficult to judge how many of these steps it is appropriate to take. 3 simplistic cases are made of power reserves, transmission and distribution, which indicate how the costs of security of supply can be weighed against advantages. In all three cases it is concluded that supply element has costs for the consumers, but in a magnitude which might well be justified in relation to the benefits. The level of detail in the cases does not, however, justify actual conclusions about the relationship between costs and benefits. It is confirmed in this project through model analysis that savings can be achieved

  19. Walk the Talk: Progress in Building a Supply Chain Security Culture

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hund, Gretchen

    2016-01-01

    Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) has engaged industry to ''go beyond compliance'' for over a decade in controlling and securing their supply chains to ensure their goods are not diverted to nuclear weapons programs. This work has focused on dual-use industries that manufacture products that can be used in both commercial applications and in the development of a nuclear weapon. The team encourages industry to self-regulate to reduce proliferation risks. As part of that work, PNNL interviewed numerous companies about their compliance practices to understand their business and to build awareness around best practices to ensure security of goods, technology, and information along their supply chains. From conducting this work, PNNL identified indicators that a company can adopt as part of its commitment to nonproliferation ideals with a focus on supply chain security.

  20. TRANSPETRO gas security of supply program; Programa de confiabilidade de suprimento de gas natural da TRANSPETRO

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Faertes, Denise [PETROBRAS Transporte S.A. (TRANSPETRO), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

    2005-07-01

    The purpose of this paper is to present the Gas Security of Supply Program that is being implemented at TRANSPETRO since 2002. It includes the application of the state of the art techniques and models related to reliability engineering. The main objective of the program is to evaluate and optimize overall gas network performance and to provide gas to different consumers (industrial, residential, thermo-plants and vehicles) in compliance with stated reliability levels. Heavy fines will be applied to PETROBRAS in case of occurrence of shortfalls. We hope that this paper can contribute to a wider discussion about this subject of performance indicators involving security of supply, safety and environment preservation. (author)

  1. INTERDEPENDENCE AND SECURITY OF ELECTRICITY SUPPLY OF A SMALL COUNTRY: THE CASE OF LITHUANIA

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Juozaitis, R.; Bacauskas, A.

    2007-07-01

    In the report there are described the circumstances of operation of Lithuanian power system. A common plan of the Baltic power companies to build a new nuclear power plant is discussed. The report elaborates on the plans of necessary interconnections for integration of the Baltic power systems into the EU electricity market, ensuring security of supply in the Baltic region and availability to install efficient bigger capacity generation units in power stations. The experience of Lithuania demonstrates that interdependence in power sector is an advantage in maintaining security of electricity supply. (auth)

  2. Essays on the economics of energy markets. Security of supply and greenhouse gas abatement

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dieckhoener, Caroline

    2013-01-01

    In summary, the presented thesis analyzes two distinct economic subjects: security of supply in natural gas markets and greenhouse gas abatement potentials in the residential heating market. These subjects considered both reflect key points in the triangle of energy policy and are both associated with transnational market failures within energy markets. The security of supply analyses in an intermeshed network are approached from a rather normative, top-down perspective of a social planner. On the contrary, the analyses of greenhouse gases emitted by households are positive analyses of consumer choices. The normative analyses of security of supply in natural gas markets and the positive analyses on greenhouse gas abatement in the residential heating market are organized in two parts of the thesis. 1. Normative analyses - Security of supply in natural gas markets: The two papers of the first part of the dissertation thesis are based on a normative approach with the European natural gas market and infrastructure model TIGER that allows for security of supply analyses. The general idea behind the modeling approach is based on the assumption of a social planner and finds an efficient utilization of the natural gas infrastructure. More precisely, the security of supply analyses conducted in the first part of the thesis refer to scenario simulations of disrupted supply routes in the European natural gas network. The effects of these security of supply scenarios on the usage of other infrastructure components, on marginal supply costs and disruptions to consumers are investigated. 2. Positive analyses of greenhouse gas abatement potentials - Econometric modeling of consumer choices and evaluation of public policies: The second part of the thesis includes two positive analyses which investigate household choices to derive greenhouse gas abatement potentials. In the residential heating market, the energy efficiency level exhibited and the type of energy carrier used are

  3. Essays on the economics of energy markets. Security of supply and greenhouse gas abatement

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dieckhoener, Caroline

    2013-02-01

    In summary, the presented thesis analyzes two distinct economic subjects: security of supply in natural gas markets and greenhouse gas abatement potentials in the residential heating market. These subjects considered both reflect key points in the triangle of energy policy and are both associated with transnational market failures within energy markets. The security of supply analyses in an intermeshed network are approached from a rather normative, top-down perspective of a social planner. On the contrary, the analyses of greenhouse gases emitted by households are positive analyses of consumer choices. The normative analyses of security of supply in natural gas markets and the positive analyses on greenhouse gas abatement in the residential heating market are organized in two parts of the thesis. 1. Normative analyses - Security of supply in natural gas markets: The two papers of the first part of the dissertation thesis are based on a normative approach with the European natural gas market and infrastructure model TIGER that allows for security of supply analyses. The general idea behind the modeling approach is based on the assumption of a social planner and finds an efficient utilization of the natural gas infrastructure. More precisely, the security of supply analyses conducted in the first part of the thesis refer to scenario simulations of disrupted supply routes in the European natural gas network. The effects of these security of supply scenarios on the usage of other infrastructure components, on marginal supply costs and disruptions to consumers are investigated. 2. Positive analyses of greenhouse gas abatement potentials - Econometric modeling of consumer choices and evaluation of public policies: The second part of the thesis includes two positive analyses which investigate household choices to derive greenhouse gas abatement potentials. In the residential heating market, the energy efficiency level exhibited and the type of energy carrier used are

  4. Electric power supply in an offshore oil production platform | Ibe ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    powered UPS system with a rotary engine UPS which can provide long-term power supply back-up as well as the benefits of rotating machines. KEY WORDS: Offshore, Platform, Power Supply, Gas turbine, Rotary Diesel UPS. [Global Jnl ...

  5. Effects of renewables penetration on the security of Portuguese electricity supply

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gouveia, João Pedro; Dias, Luís; Martins, Inês; Seixas, Júlia

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • We assess the importance of the electricity sector in energy security in Portugal. • We compare energy security indicators for 2004 and 2011. • Strong wind penetration has an important role on the country energy security. • Infrastructure is the weaker component in electricity sector supply chain. - Abstract: The increase of renewables in power sector, together with the increase of their electricity share in final energy consumption, is changing our perception about energy security with diverse and contradictory statements. The Portuguese security of electricity supply is analyzed in this study by comparing selected indicators for 2 years before and after the high increase of onshore wind since 2005. Our goal is to find how the security of electricity supply was impacted by the penetration of renewables, taking a supply chain approach. Our analysis highlights that the penetration of renewables has decreased the energy dependence of the power sector by more than 20% between 2004 and 2011, while risks related to the concentration of natural gas suppliers and to the still-high share of fossil fuels suffering from price volatility are discussed. We observed a significant improvement in power interconnections with Spain, as well as an increase of the de-rated generation capacity margin, allowing proper management of renewable power intermittency if necessary, thereby improving power security. Although the share of intermittent renewables almost quadrupled in total installed capacity between those years, the indicators reveal an improvement in the quality of transport and distribution when delivering electricity to end-users. Although electricity prices increased, mainly due to taxes, the lack of energy efficiency is an aspect deserving improvement to alleviate the pressure on electricity security, mainly at high peak demands

  6. The development of renewable energies and supply security: A trade-off analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Röpke, Luise

    2013-01-01

    This paper analyzes the effects of the green transformation on the German electricity sector with respect to the energy-political triangle. It focuses on how the development of renewable energies will affect security of electricity supply. In a cost–benefit analysis, the value of supply security is compared with its costs of provision. More specifically, the benefits of maintaining the present quality of electricity supply are the avoided social damages from electricity outages and are compared with the respective investment costs in the low- and medium-voltage distribution grid. It is shown that the transformation process towards a green and decentralized production structure will be costly for society, even though the costs can be reduced by different measures. - Highlights: • The effects of the transformation on the German electricity sector are analyzed. • The paper focuses on the trade-off between green energies and supply security. • The benefits of maintaining supply quality are compared with the investment costs. • The costs of maintaining supply quality by far exceed the induced welfare gains. • A strong focus on renewable energies endangers different energy-political goals

  7. Value of Lost Load: An Efficient Economic Indicator for Power Supply Security? A Literature Review

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schröder, Thomas, E-mail: t.schroeder@fz-juelich.de; Kuckshinrichs, Wilhelm [Institute of Energy and Climate Research – Systems Analysis and Technology Evaluation (IEK-STE), Forschungszentrum Jülich GmbH, Jülich (Germany)

    2015-12-24

    Security of electricity supply has become a fundamental requirement for well-functioning modern societies. Because of its central position in all sections of society, the present paper considers the economic consequences of a power supply interruption. The value of lost load (VoLL) is a monetary indicator expressing the costs associated with an interruption of electricity supply. This paper reviews different methods for calculating VoLL, provides an overview of recently published studies, and presents suggestions to increase the explanatory power and international comparability of VoLL.

  8. RE-SUPPLY: Securing the supply chains of wind power and solar PV Securing the supply chain for renewable energy. Final Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lehner, Franz; Vuille, Francois; Ziem, Sabine [E4tech UK Ltd, London (United Kingdom); Rastogi, Ankur; Sengupta, Subhabrata [Avalon Consulting, Mumbai (India)

    2012-11-15

    The RE-SUPPLY project aimed to provide insight into the elements of the supply chains which are presently or can in the future evolve as critical constraints in further large-scale deployment of on- and offshore wind and solar photovoltaic energy. The objectives of the study were twofold: Risk assessment: identify potential bottlenecks in the supply chains of wind and PV and assess their criticality and timeline for occurrence; and, Risk management: identify suitable mitigation strategies and recommend specific actions at policy and industry level.

  9. Security of Supply in Australia's National Electricity Market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roberts, Sebastian

    2005-06-01

    This paper discusses the experience with an energy-only market in Australia, focusing on investment and price outcomes since market commencement. Looking back at the changes in the market since it commenced in 1998, it is fair to say that the energy-only market design has been a success so far. Demand has increased steadily, but this has been matched with new investment in generation and networks. The availability and efficiency of existing plant has also increased substantially. As a result of these gains, prices have come down and are less volatile, and the reliability and security of the market has been consolidated. Compared with 1989-90, the industry delivered more electricity (an increase of 45 per cent), to more customers (an increase of 26 per cent), and with less than half the number of employees. Industrial and residential energy users have enjoyed decreased prices, thanks to a combination of increased generation and network investment, and greater competition. Despite these successes, there is scope for further reform of the NEM to aid further improvements in the market's performance. We have seen how successful the energy-only market has been in signalling new investment in peaking generation, but there is still a question as to the effectiveness of the market in signalling baseload investment. In any case, future challenges will involve ensuring that market arrangements are conducive to new investment. Indeed, following recent reviews of the Australian energy market by Australian statutory bodies, there is a consensus view that the further reform is required to improve investment signals. The 2002 Review of Australian Energy Markets recommended structural reform of the New South Wales electricity industry and the removal of ETEF. In February this year, the Productivity Commission recommended disaggregation of the generation sector in New South Wales, and took the further step of recommending that the New South Wales government should consider

  10. Legal basis and administrative departments for securing and guaranteeing the energy supply

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Besslich, W.

    1979-01-01

    The headline is no game with the words. It distinguishes between the securing of the supply in times of peace and the guarantee in times of defense during war which is a popular topic again and follows a linguistic term by the Bundesrat of 1915 which was kept alive up to day. (orig.) [de

  11. 41 CFR 101-26.507-3 - Purchase of security equipment from Federal Supply Schedules.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 41 Public Contracts and Property Management 2 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 true Purchase of security... Management Federal Property Management Regulations System FEDERAL PROPERTY MANAGEMENT REGULATIONS SUPPLY AND PROCUREMENT 26-PROCUREMENT SOURCES AND PROGRAM 26.5-GSA Procurement Programs § 101-26.507-3 Purchase of...

  12. Increasing homogeneity in global food supplies and the implications for food security

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Khoury, C.K.; Bjorkman, A.D.; Dempewolf, H.; Ramirez-Villegas, J.; Guarino, L.; Jarvis, A.; Rieseberg, L.H.; Struik, P.C.

    2014-01-01

    The narrowing of diversity in crop species contributing to the world’s food supplies has been considered a potential threat to food security. However, changes in this diversity have not been quantified globally. We assess trends over the past 50 y in the richness, abundance, and composition of crop

  13. Security of supply during the energy transition : The role of capacity mechanisms

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bhagwat, P.C.

    2016-01-01

    The push for clean energy has caused a rapid growth of renewables in the electricity supply mix of the EU. Although one would assume that the impact of these technologies is entirely positive, recent research and experience indicate that there is reason for concern namely regarding the security of

  14. Addressing the supply security of the nuclear fuel cycle: a US merchant generator risk acceptance perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jordan, R. P.; Benavides, P.A.

    2006-01-01

    With the current rising markets across the nuclear fuel supply spectrum, understanding and managing nuclear fuel cycle supply security risk becomes an increasingly important consideration. In addressing this area, Constellation Energy is implementing an integrated multifaceted approach as consistent with a comprehensive risk profile covering the nuclear fuel supply industry. This approach is founded on use of a utility traditional procurement strategy, as dependent on the qualitative parameters of supply origination diversification, geopolitical stability, contracting duration and individual supplier financial bases. However, Constellation also adds an additional consideration into development of this nuclear fuel supply risk profile. To do such, qualitative assessments covering specific supplier risks, as based on the parameters of supplier management and organizational structure, design capacities (applicable to fabrication and enrichment only), operational history as applicable to forward-looking performance, regulatory or legal history and financial performance are also considered. Constellation overlays the risks of future availabilities, catastrophic occurrences and prices for each nuclear fuel material and service component onto a quantitative set of results. The overall focus of these assessments is the creation of a risk management perspective directed towards determining the potential loss or delay of nuclear fuel supply for our operating reactors. The conclusion of this effort is an integrated assessment of the nuclear fuel supply security as applicable to the Constellation-specific structured risk profile. Use of this assessment allows Constellation to target appropriate suppliers of interest in the marketplace and form the fundamental bases for the Constellation procurement strategy while managing risks associated with nuclear fuel cycle supply security. (authors)

  15. Technology scale and supply chains in a secure, affordable and low carbon energy transition

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoggett, Richard

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Energy systems need to decarbonise, provide security and remain affordable. • There is uncertainty over which technologies will best enable this to happen. • A strategy to deal with uncertainty is to assess a technologies ability to show resilience, flexibility and adaptability. • Scale is important and smaller scale technologies are like to display the above characteristics. • Smaller scale technologies are therefore more likely to enable a sustainable, secure, and affordable energy transition. - Abstract: This research explores the relationship between technology scale, energy security and decarbonisation within the UK energy system. There is considerable uncertainty about how best to deliver on these goals for energy policy, but a focus on supply chains and their resilience can provide useful insights into the problems uncertainty causes. Technology scale is central to this, and through an analysis of the supply chains of nuclear power and solar photovoltaics, it is suggested that smaller scale technologies are more likely to support and enable a secure, low carbon energy transition. This is because their supply chains are less complex, show more flexibility and adaptability, and can quickly respond to changes within an energy system, and as such they are more resilient than large scale technologies. These characteristics are likely to become increasingly important in a rapidly changing energy system, and prioritising those technologies that demonstrate resilience, flexibility and adaptability will better enable a transition that is rapid, sustainable, secure and affordable

  16. Probabilistic modelling of security of supply in gas networks and evaluation of new infrastructure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Praks, Pavel; Kopustinskas, Vytis; Masera, Marcelo

    2015-01-01

    The paper presents a probabilistic model to study security of supply in a gas network. The model is based on Monte-Carlo simulations with graph theory, and is implemented in the software tool ProGasNet. The software allows studying gas networks in various aspects including identification of weakest links and nodes, vulnerability analysis, bottleneck analysis, evaluation of new infrastructure etc. In this paper ProGasNet is applied to a benchmark network based on a real EU gas transmission network of several countries with the purpose of evaluating the security of supply effects of new infrastructure, either under construction, recently completed or under planning. The probabilistic model enables quantitative evaluations by comparing the reliability of gas supply in each consuming node of the network. - Highlights: • A Monte-Carlo algorithm for stochastic flow networks is presented. • Network elements can fail according to a given probabilistic model. • Priority supply pattern of gas transmission networks is assumed. • A real-world EU gas transmission network is presented and analyzed. • A risk ratio is used for security of supply quantification of a new infrastructure.

  17. Security of the electricity supply. The area of conflict between profitability and environmental compatibility; Sicherheit der Elektrizitaetsversorgung. Das Spannungsfeld von Wirtschaftlichkeit und Umweltvertraeglichkeit

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Praktiknjo, Aaron

    2013-07-01

    The scope of the book is on the one hand support for the power industry defining investment and sales strategies that intend optimum supply security in the view of the customer and on the other hand the information for energy and environmental politicians demonstrating the conflict of objectives. The following issues are covered: technical and organizational aspects of electricity supply, theoretical background of the security of electricity supply, security of supply for economic sections, security of electricity supply for private households: theoretical microeconomic approach, security of electricity supply for private households: method of defined preferences, security of electricity supply in the context of climate protection and nuclear phase-out.

  18. Energy policy of the EU and the role of Turkey in Energy Supply Security

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    MEHTER AYKIN Sibel

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available All the nations define strategies and develop policies on national and international levels to eliminate risks against energy security. The aim of this paper is to define the energy policy of the European Union and identify the potential of Turkey in securing energy supply to the European Union. To achieve this end, after explaining the policy frame of the European Union and that of Turkey in energy related matters, the existing and planned energy routes expanding from the Russian Federation, Caspian Sea and the Middle East to the European Continent are mapped, and the role assigned to Turkey as an energy hub is exemplified with reference to its accession process. It is concluded that Turkey’s membership is to enrich the European Union and contribute to its energy supply security.

  19. Japan's oil situation and relationship with the Middle East

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oka, H.

    1991-01-01

    This paper reports on Japan's energy supply structure and the demand for energy in the country. It focuses on oil relations between Japan and the Middle Eastern oil countries, and Japan's attempt to enhance energy supply-security policy measures

  20. 78 FR 36278 - Fuel Oil Systems for Emergency Power Supplies

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-06-17

    ... Emergency Diesel Generators,'' (reaffirmed in October 2007) with the exceptions and clarification stated in... with NRC regulations for assuring the quality of fuel oil for emergency diesel generators used in..., Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research, U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Washington, DC 20555-0001...

  1. Asian gas and oil supplies, production, and utilization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jonchere, J.P.

    1991-01-01

    Some changes which have occurred recently, or which are now emerging, allow one to consider commercial energy revolving effectively around three poles--oil, natural gas and electricity, and these to be viewed more and more as commodities for services. A hard core of oil consumption, mainly dedicated to the transportation sector, will continue to fuel the crude oil demand growth. In Asia, such a trend will lead to an increasing reliance on Middle East crudes and thus to the need to upgrade the heavier part of the barrel. For its part, natural gas will help to limit the reliance on oil, and its resource base is large enough to offer it increasing shares in two key energy consuming sectors: electricity generation and nitrogen fertilizers. Moreover, concerns about the need to conserve natural gas reserves for use as a feedstock for nitrogen fertilizers and other petrochemicals, do not affect the picture. Limited amounts would be required and a dynamic approach to the development of fossil fuel resources enables the consideration of natural gas as a transitional fuel for the energy hungry power sector. However, in the meantime it is expected to play a key role both in safeguarding the environment and alleviating the investment burden, particularly in the power and nitrogen fertilizer sectors

  2. Security of feedstocks supply for future bio-ethanol production in Thailand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Silalertruksa, Thapat; Gheewala, Shabbir H.

    2010-01-01

    This study assesses the security of feedstock supply to satisfy the increased demand for bio-ethanol production based on the recent 15 years biofuels development plan and target (year 2008-2022) of the Thai government. Future bio-ethanol systems are modeled and the feedstock supply potentials analyzed based on three scenarios including low-, moderate- and high-yields improvement. The three scenarios are modeled and key dimensions including availability; diversity; and environmental acceptability of feedstocks supply in terms of GHG reduction are evaluated through indicators such as net feedstock balances, Shannon index and net life cycle GHG emissions. The results show that only the case of high yields improvement scenario can result in a reliable and sufficient supply of feedstocks to satisfy the long-term demands for bio-ethanol and other related industries. Cassava is identified as the critical feedstock and a reduction in cassava export is necessary. The study concludes that to enhance long-term security of feedstocks supply for sustainable bio-ethanol production in Thailand, increasing use of sugarcane juice as feedstock, improved yields of existing feedstocks and promoting production of bio-ethanol derived from agricultural residues are three key recommendations that need to be urgently implemented by the policy makers. - Research highlights: →Bioethanol in Thailand derived from molasses, cassava, sugarcane juice could yield reductions of 64%, 49% and 87% in GHGs when compared to conventional gasoline. →High yields improvement are required for a reliable and sufficient supply of molasses, cassava and sugarcane to satisfy the long-term demands for bio-ethanol and other related industries. →Other factors to enhance long-term security of feedstocks supply for sustainable bioethanol production in Thailand include increasing use of sugarcane juice as feedstock and promoting production of bioethanol derived from agricultural residues.

  3. Cartel law as an instrument for ensuring security of energy supply; Kartellrecht als Instrument der sicheren Energieversorgung

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Roth, W.H. [Bonn Univ. (Germany). Inst. fuer Internationales Privatrecht und Rechtsvergleichung

    2007-07-01

    The title of this paper - cartel law as an instrument for ensuring security of supply - may seem surprising to some. After all, the concepts of security of supply and cartel law are generally viewed as conflicting with one another, as when prohibitive or interdictive norms of cartel law are restricted or suspended in the name of ensuring security of supply. The title implies that there is also another perspective on this relationship, namely that cartel is geared to the goal of maintaining a viable competitive environment. To the extent that competition serves the purpose of ensuring consumers' greatest possible security of supply, even though this may not be its only purpose, any economic system that is driven by competition will also work towards ensuring the security of the energy supply. Seen from this perspective the paper's title is aptly worded, speaking of security of supply through competition rather than through its (justified) restriction. The creation of a European internal energy market in which energy resources are offered and demanded across borders will contribute to ensuring the security of the energy supply. To the extent that cartel law acts towards keeping markets open and safeguarding competition it will also serve the purpose of ensuring security of supply. This applies in particular in cases where contractual bonds act as a repellent, preventing other suppliers from entering the market and thus also counteracting the diversification of buying sources.

  4. World crude oil and natural gas. A demand and supply model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krichene, Noureddine

    2002-01-01

    This paper examines world markets for crude oil and natural gas over the period 1918-1999; it analyzes the time-series properties of output and prices and estimates demand and supply elasticities during 1918-1973 and 1973-1999. Oil and gas prices were stable during the first period; they became volatile afterwards, reflecting deep changes in the market structure following the oil shock in 1973. Demand price elasticities were too low; however, demand income elasticities were high. Supply price elasticities were also too low. The elasticity estimates help to explain the market power of the oil producers and price volatility in response to shocks, and corroborate elasticity estimates in energy studies

  5. World crude oil and natural gas: a demand and supply model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krichene, N.

    2002-01-01

    This paper examines world markets for crude oil and natural gas over the period 1918-1999; it analyzes the time-series properties of output and prices and estimates demand and supply elasticities during 1918-1973 and 1973-1999. Oil and gas prices were stable during the first period; they became volatile afterwards, reflecting deep changes in the market structure following the oil shock in 1973. Demand price elasticities were too low; however, demand income elasticities were high. Supply price elasticities were also too low. The elasticity estimates help to explain the market power of the oil producers and price volatility in response to shocks, and corroborate elasticity estimates in energy studies. (author)

  6. Hong Kong faces uncertain future as oil supply centre

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McDonald, Paul

    1997-01-01

    Hong Kong's first day under Chinese rule, 1 July 1997, was not exactly auspicious. A celebratory parade organized by the Chinese was washed out by torrential rain, and the grand finale of a firework display, described as 'a bold statement..... embodying confidence in the future of Hong Kong' fizzled out when one of the firework barges caught fire. The omens are not necessarily good for the territory's oil industry either. (author)

  7. Hong Kong faces uncertain future as oil supply centre

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McDonald, Paul [Pearl Oil Ltd. (Hong Kong)

    1997-09-01

    Hong Kong`s first day under Chinese rule, 1 July 1997, was not exactly auspicious. A celebratory parade organized by the Chinese was washed out by torrential rain, and the grand finale of a firework display, described as `a bold statement..... embodying confidence in the future of Hong Kong` fizzled out when one of the firework barges caught fire. The omens are not necessarily good for the territory`s oil industry either. (author)

  8. Sustainability assessment of straight vegetable oil used as self-supply biofuel in agriculture

    OpenAIRE

    Baquero Armans, Grau; Esteban Dalmau, Bernat; Puig Vidal, Rita; Riba Ruiz, Jordi-Roger; Rius Carrasco, Antoni

    2011-01-01

    This work proposes and analyses a model for an agricultural fuel self-supply exploitation. The model is based on the current extended crop rotation of wheat and barley in Anoia region (Catalonia, Spain). The introduction of rapeseed to the current crop rotation and its conversion into oil to be used as agricultural fuel is presented. Life cycle assessment methodology is used to carry out an environmental and an economic assessment. Environmental results show a preference for the vegetable oil...

  9. Well-to-refinery emissions and net-energy analysis of China's crude-oil supply

    Science.gov (United States)

    Masnadi, Mohammad S.; El-Houjeiri, Hassan M.; Schunack, Dominik; Li, Yunpo; Roberts, Samori O.; Przesmitzki, Steven; Brandt, Adam R.; Wang, Michael

    2018-03-01

    Oil is China's second-largest energy source, so it is essential to understand the country's greenhouse gas emissions from crude-oil production. Chinese crude supply is sourced from numerous major global petroleum producers. Here, we use a per-barrel well-to-refinery life-cycle analysis model with data derived from hundreds of public and commercial sources to model the Chinese crude mix and the upstream carbon intensities and energetic productivity of China's crude supply. We generate a carbon-denominated supply curve representing Chinese crude-oil supply from 146 oilfields in 20 countries. The selected fields are estimated to emit between 1.5 and 46.9 g CO2eq MJ-1 of oil, with volume-weighted average emissions of 8.4 g CO2eq MJ-1. These estimates are higher than some existing databases, illustrating the importance of bottom-up models to support life-cycle analysis databases. This study provides quantitative insight into China's energy policy and the economic and environmental implications of China's oil consumption.

  10. Oil turbulence in the next decade. An essay on high oil prices in a supply-constrained world

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jesse, J.H.; Van der Linde, C.

    2008-06-01

    A CIEP analysis of the recent development of demand and supply for crude oil indicates that the mismatch in supply and demand growth could cause tighter oil markets than we already experience today. In the World Energy Outlook 2007, the International Energy Agency (IEA) warned of a possible 'energy crunch'. But what was anticipated to happen in the first part of the next decade has been fast-forwarded to today, more than 5 years earlier, and could shake the very foundation of our energy systems if no action is undertaken. Without exaggeration, the recent developments in the international oil market are ground-breaking: a little over a year ago, in January 2007, the West Texas Intermediate crude oil price (WTI) traded for USD50 dollar a barrel. Within a year, the price doubled to USD100 per barrel in January 2008 and pushed through to over USD135 in June 2008, against the backdrop of the fresh market supposition about reaching a whopping USD200 per barrel in 2009. If this proves to be true, the world will not only have moved from an 'Oil Demand-led World' to an 'Oil Supply-constrained World' (since 2004) but, more importantly, will then also experience a radical change in the oil price formation. Until recently, the oil price was largely underpinned by the marginal cost of the last barrel needed to match demand, with some political and economic conjuncture mark-ups or -downs. As will be presented in this paper, the current high oil prices are still primarily driven by structural factors that can be well explained without resorting to blaming speculative investors playing the futures market or the low dollar. But if prices are heading towards USD200 a barrel in 12 months' time, or for that matter even to USD150 a barrel, other drivers will gain prominence over marginal costs as the main driver. In that case, OPEC will have accomplished a long-held wish: oil will then be priced at its real value in the Western world (for instance the economic value of mobility for

  11. Development of oil supply and demand planning model for mid- and long-term

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Sung Hyun [Korea Energy Economics Institute, Euiwang (Korea)

    1997-10-01

    Despite the liberalization of oil market, a systematic model is required for reasonable supply and demand of oil, which still has an important influence on industry and state economy. It is required a demand model deriving prospects of each sector and product and a supply model examining the optimum rate of operation, production mix of products, stock, export and import, and the size of equipment investment to meet given demand. As the first phase for the development of supply and demand model, the existing oil and energy models in domestic and overseas were reviewed and recommendations for establishing a Korean oil supply and demand model were derived in this study. Based on these, a principle for establishing a model and a rough framework were set up. In advance of mid- and long-term prospects, a short-term prospect model was established and the short-term prospects for the first quarter of 1999 and for the year 1999 were presented on trial. Due to the size and characters of a supply model, a plan for an ideal model was first explained and then a plan for creating a model step by step was presented as a realistic scheme. (author). 16 refs., 9 figs., 19 tabs.

  12. Non-OPEC oil supply continues to grow

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Knapp, D.H.

    1995-01-01

    Global reserves of crude oil remain at 1 trillion bbl, according to OGJ's annual survey of producing countries. Significant gains are in Brazil, Colombia, Congo, Egypt, Libya, Nigeria, Oman, and Papua New Guinea. Decreases were reported by Indonesia, Norway, the U.K., Iran, Canada, Mexico, and the US. Natural gas reserves slipped to 4.9 quadrillion cu ft. The major production trend is a lasting surge from outside of OPEC. This year's Worldwide Production report begins with a detailed analysis of this crucial development by an international authority. This article discusses the OECD outlook by region and the turnaround in production in the former Soviet Union

  13. Report on emergency electrical power supply systems for nuclear fuel cycle and reactor facilities security systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1977-01-01

    The report includes information that will be useful to those responsible for the planning, design and implementation of emergency electric power systems for physical security and special nuclear materials accountability systems. Basic considerations for establishing the system requirements for emergency electric power for security and accountability operations are presented. Methods of supplying emergency power that are available at present and methods predicted to be available in the future are discussed. The characteristics of capacity, cost, safety, reliability and environmental and physical facility considerations of emergency electric power techniques are presented. The report includes basic considerations for the development of a system concept and the preparation of a detailed system design

  14. Report on emergency electrical power supply systems for nuclear fuel cycle and reactor facilities security systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1977-01-01

    The report includes information that will be useful to those responsible for the planning, design and implementation of emergency electric power systems for physical security and special nuclear materials accountability systems. Basic considerations for establishing the system requirements for emergency electric power for security and accountability operations are presented. Methods of supplying emergency power that are available at present and methods predicted to be available in the future are discussed. The characteristics of capacity, cost, safety, reliability and environmental and physical facility considerations of emergency electric power techniques are presented. The report includes basic considerations for the development of a system concept and the preparation of a detailed system design.

  15. Energy the security of supply in question. Combating global warming: what role for nuclear power. Warning issued by the International Energy Agency

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Montbrial, T. de [Areva, Paris (France); Moore, P. [Greenspirit Strategies Ltd, Vancouver (Canada); Cambell, N. [Greenpeace (Canada)

    2007-07-01

    This issue of Alternatives newsletter put the question of energy supplies security. The unequal distribution of the world's energy resources raises the problem of energy independence and the security of supply. This question is particularly pertinent for Europe which, along with the Far East, possesses only a meager share of the planet's store of fossil fuels. Europe must learn how to live with its energy dependency, knowing that independence is an unrealistic objective in a world built on the interdependence of trade. The world's energy system is vulnerable to disruptions in supply and to geopolitical tensions. Given this context of instability, how can the security of supply and energy independence be increased? The challenge for western countries with few fossil fuel resources is to secure reliable supply while reducing energy dependency. One solution consists in diversifying power generation sources to lower dependency on oil and gas. The nuclear question is analyzed through the different point of views of Greenpeace and Greenspirit Strategies. Greenpeace refuses even the slightest involvement of nuclear power and considers that energy efficiency and renewable technologies are the only solution to both global warming and energy questions. On the other hand, Greenspirit Strategies sees nuclear power, combined with increased efforts to develop renewable energies, playing an essential role in the sustainable production of electricity. A last article devoted to the World Energy Outlook 2006 - the report published by the International Energy Agency - presents the hypotheses advanced by the Agency regarding future energy supply and its recommendations for counteracting a scenario for 2030 that is, to say the least, very alarming.

  16. Energy the security of supply in question. Combating global warming: what role for nuclear power. Warning issued by the International Energy Agency

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Montbrial, T. de; Moore, P.; Cambell, N.

    2007-01-01

    This issue of Alternatives newsletter put the question of energy supplies security. The unequal distribution of the world's energy resources raises the problem of energy independence and the security of supply. This question is particularly pertinent for Europe which, along with the Far East, possesses only a meager share of the planet's store of fossil fuels. Europe must learn how to live with its energy dependency, knowing that independence is an unrealistic objective in a world built on the interdependence of trade. The world's energy system is vulnerable to disruptions in supply and to geopolitical tensions. Given this context of instability, how can the security of supply and energy independence be increased? The challenge for western countries with few fossil fuel resources is to secure reliable supply while reducing energy dependency. One solution consists in diversifying power generation sources to lower dependency on oil and gas. The nuclear question is analyzed through the different point of views of Greenpeace and Greenspirit Strategies. Greenpeace refuses even the slightest involvement of nuclear power and considers that energy efficiency and renewable technologies are the only solution to both global warming and energy questions. On the other hand, Greenspirit Strategies sees nuclear power, combined with increased efforts to develop renewable energies, playing an essential role in the sustainable production of electricity. A last article devoted to the World Energy Outlook 2006 - the report published by the International Energy Agency - presents the hypotheses advanced by the Agency regarding future energy supply and its recommendations for counteracting a scenario for 2030 that is, to say the least, very alarming

  17. A comparison of oil supply risks in EU, US, Japan, China and India under different climate scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moerkerk, Mike van; Crijns-Graus, Wina

    2016-01-01

    For many countries, the inflow of energy is essential to keep economies running. Oil is typically considered to be the most critical fuel as an input for the petro-chemical and transportation sector and due to limited and less spread reserves. In this study external oil supply risks are assessed for the period up to 2035 for the European Union, United States, China, Japan and India (being the five largest importers of oil in the world), based on their current supplier portfolio. Scenarios are constructed for several climate policy and oil-supply projections. It is found that risks increase strongly, when stringent climate policies are prevented from being implemented, especially when a peak in oil supply is taken into account, resulting in major oil supply-disruptions. China faces the lowest oil supply risks in most scenarios but the trends of India, China and US converge over time due to increasing import dependency of China and India. Japan faces high risks since the country has the highest oil import dependency combined with a low oil import diversification. For the EU, all figures are strongly influenced by Russia, accounting for 32% of total imports, and to a lesser extent Norway (11%), with high overall risks. - Highlights: • External oil supply risks are assessed up to 2035 under different scenarios. • Included countries are EU, US, China, Japan and India (largest importers of oil). • India, China and EU show increasing oil supply risks in all scenarios. • Strong climate policies are needed to reduce future risks. • A constructed peak oil scenario predicts major oil supply disruptions.

  18. Speaker's presentations. Energy supply security; Recueil des interventions. Securite d'approvisionnement energetique

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pierret, Ch

    2000-07-01

    This document is a collection of most of the papers used by the speakers of the European Seminar on Energy Supply Security organised in Paris (at the French Ministry of Economy, Finance and Industry) on 24 November 2000 by the General Direction of Energy and Raw Materials, in co-operation with the European Commission and the French Planning Office. About 250 attendees were present, including a lot of high level Civil Servants from the 15 European State members, and their questions have allowed to create a rich debate. It took place five days before the publication, on 29 November 2000, by the European Commission, of the Green Paper 'Towards a European Strategy for the Security of Energy Supply'. This French initiative, which took place within the framework of the European Presidency of the European Union, during the second half-year 2000. will bring a first impetus to the brainstorming launched by the Commission. (author)

  19. Walk the Talk: How PNNL is developing a Supply Chain Security Culture

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hund, Gretchen [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States). Center for Global Security

    2015-09-30

    For the past decade, a team at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) has engaged industry to “go beyond compliance” in controlling and securing their supply chains to ensure their goods are not diverted to nuclear weapons programs. This work has focused on dual-use industries that manufacture products that can be used in both commercial applications and in the development of a nuclear weapon. The team encourages industry to self-regulate to reduce proliferation risks. As part of that work, PNNL interviewed numerous companies about their compliance practices in order to understand their business and to build awareness around best practices to ensure security of goods and information along their supply chains. As a result, PNNL has identified seven indicators that a company can adopt as part of their commitment to nonproliferation ideals.

  20. Walk the Talk: How PNNL is developing a Supply Chain Security Culture

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hund, Gretchen

    2015-01-01

    For the past decade, a team at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) has engaged industry to ''go beyond compliance'' in controlling and securing their supply chains to ensure their goods are not diverted to nuclear weapons programs. This work has focused on dual-use industries that manufacture products that can be used in both commercial applications and in the development of a nuclear weapon. The team encourages industry to self-regulate to reduce proliferation risks. As part of that work, PNNL interviewed numerous companies about their compliance practices in order to understand their business and to build awareness around best practices to ensure security of goods and information along their supply chains. As a result, PNNL has identified seven indicators that a company can adopt as part of their commitment to nonproliferation ideals.

  1. An omitted variable in OECD oil supply forecasting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lynch, M.C.

    1990-01-01

    An earlier paper argued that, based on analysis of existing fields, non-OPEC production seems destined to begin declining soon. However, the author's rate of change for fields in production is about -10%/yr., and if it were adjusted based on this paper's findings, an actual increase in non-OPEC production would be observed. More work is needed to estimate coefficients for production from existing fields, incorporating 1) age of field (which would help indicate technology in place from inception) 2) viscosity of the deposit, 3) porosity of rock, 4) size of production, 5) measured remaining reserves, and 6) price paid at the wellhead. This would obviously be a formidable task. There does appear to be a persistent bias in forecasting competitive supply at the macro level, and the results here seem to suggest that at the micro level, it is due to the omission of additional investment in existing fields. This may help to explain why forecasts of non-OPEC supply have been consistently too pessimistic for at least the past decade, and implies that current forecasts of stronger markets may continue this error

  2. How to Secure UPS Operation And Supply of Safety Critical Load During Abnormal Conditions in Upstream Supply

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Andersen, Gert; Kissling, Silvan; Laaser, Joerg

    2015-01-01

    UPS system design margins are usually given by manufacturer, but the events in Forsmark showed that these margins are not sufficient to protect UPS equipment and secure supply to critical loads. To withstand such events, it is not enough just to define margins for particular equipment. The overall plant design including environmental influences must be taken into consideration. For extreme environmental conditions, a UPS must include protection which design is matching to the upstream plant equipment. Immunity against abnormal conditions can not be finally guaranteed by higher margins. A limitation that excludes such influences must be implemented into the design. This presentation discusses possibilities to specify design margins, for rectifiers and inverters based on GUTOR thyristor and IGBT technology. It shows protection features to resist and solutions to limit overvoltages. (authors)

  3. Securing the Containerized Supply Chain: Analysis of Government Incentives for Private Investment

    OpenAIRE

    Nitin Bakshi; Noah Gans

    2010-01-01

    To mitigate the threat that terrorists smuggle weapons of mass destruction into the United States through maritime containers, the U.S. Bureau of Customs and Border Protection (CBP) inspects containers upon entry to domestic ports. Inspection-driven congestion is costly, and CBP provides incentives to firms to improve security upstream in the supply chain, thereby reducing the inspection burden at U.S. ports. We perform an economic analysis of this incentive program, called Customs-Trade Part...

  4. Manufacturing Improvement Program for the Oil and Gas Industry Supply Chain and Marketing Cluster

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Taylor, Robert [Oklahoma State Univ., Stillwater, OK (United States)

    2016-09-28

    This project supported upgrades for manufacturing companies in the oil and natural gas supply chain in Oklahoma. The goal is to provide assistance that will lead to the improved efficiency advancement of the manufacturing processes currently used by the existing manufacturing clients. The basis for the work is to improve the economic environment for the clients and the communities they serve.

  5. Composite indicators for security of energy supply using ordered weighted averaging

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Costescu Badea, Anca; Rocco S, Claudio M.; Tarantola, Stefano; Bolado, Ricardo

    2011-01-01

    In this paper we propose to use an aggregation rule derived from the Group Decision Theory, and based on the ranks of a set of individual indicators, for building a family of composite indicators for the security of energy supply. This family of composite indicators depends on a parameter associated with the risk-averse level of the decision maker, which can hence vary continuously from risk-prone to risk-averse. It represents a valuable and objective instrument to evaluate the degree of security of energy supply of different countries without entering into controversial matters related to the choice of the weights. This methodology can be used to aggregate either ranks or normalized values of the individual indicators. We apply it to a set of individual indicators, accounting for different dimensions of the security of supply and derived from the outputs of an energy system model. We study the evolution in time of the countries' performances, as well as the propagation of the uncertainties associated with the individual indicators to the composite. We also studied the robustness of such composite indicators with respect to the risk-averse level.

  6. Energy planning and security of supply in Spain and their compliance with the European legal framework

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dolader, J.

    2004-01-01

    The electricity and gas markets in Spain were liberalized by the 1997 Electricity Act and the 1998 Hydrocarbons Act, respectively. The final step of the liberalization process was completed in January 2003 with the full eligibility of Spanish electricity and gas consumers. The liberalization Acts include in addition a two-way long-term energy planning process within a ten-year time scope. On the one hand the planning process involves binding planning concerning the so called 'basic infrastructures' (which include the electricity and gas transmission networks plus the total re-gasification capacity), and on the other hand, an indicative energy planning aimed at facilitating the decision making of administrations and agents by forecasting energy demand, and analyzing its coverage under the premises of security of supply. The present paper describes the current energy planning system in Spain, the provisions to ensure the security of supply and their compliance with the new European legislation - both the proposed and the existent one - regarding the security of supply in the EU.(author)

  7. A critical assessment of the different approaches aimed to secure electricity generation supply

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Batlle, C.; Rodilla, P. [Technological Research Institute, Pontifical University of Comillas, Sta. Cruz de Marcenado 26, 28015 Madrid (Spain)

    2010-11-15

    Since the very beginning of the power systems reform process, one of the key questions posed has been whether the market, of its own accord, is able to provide satisfactory security of supply at the power generation level or if some additional regulatory mechanism needs to be introduced, and in the latter case, which is the most suitable approach to tackle the problem. This matter is undoubtedly gaining importance and it has taken a key role in the energy regulators' agendas. In this paper, we critically review and categorize the different approaches regulators can opt for to deal with the problem of guaranteeing (or at least enhancing) security of supply in a market-oriented environment. We analyze the most relevant regulatory design elements throughout an updated assessment of the broad range of international experiences, highlighting the lessons we have learned so far in a variety of contexts. Based on the analysis, we conclude by providing a set of principles and criteria that should be considered by the regulator when designing a security of supply mechanism. (author)

  8. A critical assessment of the different approaches aimed to secure electricity generation supply

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Batlle, C.; Rodilla, P.

    2010-01-01

    Since the very beginning of the power systems reform process, one of the key questions posed has been whether the market, of its own accord, is able to provide satisfactory security of supply at the power generation level or if some additional regulatory mechanism needs to be introduced, and in the latter case, which is the most suitable approach to tackle the problem. This matter is undoubtedly gaining importance and it has taken a key role in the energy regulators' agendas. In this paper, we critically review and categorize the different approaches regulators can opt for to deal with the problem of guaranteeing (or at least enhancing) security of supply in a market-oriented environment. We analyze the most relevant regulatory design elements throughout an updated assessment of the broad range of international experiences, highlighting the lessons we have learned so far in a variety of contexts. Based on the analysis, we conclude by providing a set of principles and criteria that should be considered by the regulator when designing a security of supply mechanism.

  9. Research on the Food Security Condition and Food Supply Capacity of Egypt

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jian Deng

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Food security is chronically guaranteed in Egypt because of the food subsidy policy of the country. However, the increasing Egyptian population is straining the food supply. To study changes in Egyptian food security and future food supply capacity, we analysed the historical grain production, yield per unit, grain-cultivated area, and per capita grain possession of Egypt. The GM (1,1 model of the grey system was used to predict the future population. Thereafter, the result was combined with scenario analysis to forecast the grain possession and population carrying capacity of Egypt under different scenarios. Results show that the increasing population and limitations in cultivated land will strain Egyptian food security. Only in high cultivated areas and high grain yield scenarios before 2020, or in high cultivated areas and mid grain yield scenarios before 2015, can food supply be basically satisfied (assurance rate ≥ 80% under a standard of 400 kg per capita. Population carrying capacity in 2030 is between 51.45 and 89.35 million. Thus, we propose the use of advanced technologies in agriculture and the adjustment of plant structure and cropping systems to improve land utilization efficiency. Furthermore, urbanization and other uses of cultivated land should be strictly controlled to ensure the planting of grains.

  10. Research on the food security condition and food supply capacity of Egypt.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deng, Jian; Xiang, Youzhen; Hao, Wenhui; Feng, Yongzhong; Yang, Gaihe; Ren, Guangxin; Han, Xinhui

    2014-01-01

    Food security is chronically guaranteed in Egypt because of the food subsidy policy of the country. However, the increasing Egyptian population is straining the food supply. To study changes in Egyptian food security and future food supply capacity, we analysed the historical grain production, yield per unit, grain-cultivated area, and per capita grain possession of Egypt. The GM (1,1) model of the grey system was used to predict the future population. Thereafter, the result was combined with scenario analysis to forecast the grain possession and population carrying capacity of Egypt under different scenarios. Results show that the increasing population and limitations in cultivated land will strain Egyptian food security. Only in high cultivated areas and high grain yield scenarios before 2020, or in high cultivated areas and mid grain yield scenarios before 2015, can food supply be basically satisfied (assurance rate ≥ 80%) under a standard of 400 kg per capita. Population carrying capacity in 2030 is between 51.45 and 89.35 million. Thus, we propose the use of advanced technologies in agriculture and the adjustment of plant structure and cropping systems to improve land utilization efficiency. Furthermore, urbanization and other uses of cultivated land should be strictly controlled to ensure the planting of grains.

  11. Future Oil and Gas Resources of the World: A Coming Supply Crisis?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahlbrandt, T. S.

    2002-05-01

    Is the world running out of oil? Where will future oil and gas supplies come from? To help answer these questions, the U.S. Geological Survey completed in 2000 a new assessment of the undiscovered conventional oil and gas resources and potential additions to reserves from field growth. One hundred and twenty-eight provinces were assessed in a 100 man-year effort from 1995-2000. The assessed provinces included 76 priority provinces containing 95 percent of the world's discovered oil and gas and an additional 52 "boutique" provinces, many of which may be highly prospective. Total Petroleum Systems (TPS) were identified and described for each of these provinces along with associated Assessment Units (AU) that are the basic units for assessing undiscovered petroleum. The assessment process coupled geologic analysis with a probabilistic methodology to estimate remaining potential. Within the 128 assessed provinces, were 159 TPS and 274 AU. For these provinces, the endowment of recoverable oil, which includes cumulative production, remaining reserves, reserve growth, and undiscovered resources is estimated at about 3 trillion barrels of oil (TBO). The natural gas endowment is estimated at 2.6 trillion barrels of oil equivalent (TBOE). Oil reserves are currently 1.1 TBO; world consumption is about .028 TBO per year. Natural gas reserves are about .8 TBOE; world consumption is about .014 TBOE. Thus, without any additional discoveries of oil, gas or natural gas liquids, we have about 2 TBOE of proved petroleum reserves. Of the oil and gas endowment of about 5.6 TBOE, we estimate that the world has consumed about 1 TBOE, or 18 percent leaving about 82 percent of endowment to be utilized or found. Half of the world's undiscovered potential is offshore. Arctic basins with about 25 percent of undiscovered petroleum resources make up the next great frontier. An additional 279 provinces contain some oil and gas and, if considered, would increase the oil and gas endowment

  12. [Design and implementation of supply security monitoring and analysis system for Chinese patent medicines supply in national essential medicines].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Hui; Zhang, Xiao-Bo; Huang, Lu-Qi; Guo, Lan-Ping; Wang, Ling; Zhao, Yu-Ping; Yang, Guang

    2017-11-01

    The supply of Chinese patent medicine is influenced by the price of raw materials (Chinese herbal medicines) and the stock of resources. On the one hand, raw material prices show cyclical volatility or even irreversible soaring, making the price of Chinese patent medicine is not stable or even the highest cost of hanging upside down. On the other hand, due to lack of resources or disable some of the proprietary Chinese medicine was forced to stop production. Based on the micro-service architecture and Redis cluster deployment Based on the micro-service architecture and Redis cluster deployment, the supply security monitoring and analysis system for Chinese patent medicines in national essential medicines has realized the dynamic monitoring and intelligence warning of herbs and Chinese patent medicine by connecting and integrating the database of Chinese medicine resources, the dynamic monitoring system of traditional Chinese medicine resources and the basic medicine database of Chinese patent medicine. Copyright© by the Chinese Pharmaceutical Association.

  13. Crude oil and natural gas supplies and demands up to the year AD 2010 for France

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mackay, R.M.; Probert, S.D.

    1995-01-01

    A novel technique for forecasting the supply and extraction life-cycle of a depleting fossil fuel resource has been developed. The supply side utilises a 'skewed-normal production-profile' model that yields a better representation than earlier approaches. A simple model for extrapolating crude oil and natural gas demands has also been devised, based on the so called 'modified logit function'. The predicted crude oil and natural gas balances for the period up to AD 2010 indicate the disparity between indigenous production and future consumption for France. These forecasts depend on current estimates of remaining oil and gas reserves. It will consequently be necessary to revise periodically the present projections as more reliable reserve estimates become available. (author)

  14. Households' willingness to pay for safeguarding security of natural gas supply in electricity generation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Damigos, D.; Tourkolias, C.; Diakoulaki, D.

    2009-01-01

    Security of energy supply is a major issue for all EU Member States due to Europe's increasing dependence on imported fossil-fuel sources and the continuous rise in energy demand. The latter is of particular importance in electricity sector given the continuously increasing use of gas for electricity generation. In order to properly tackle with the problem, concerted actions are required by the EU Member States in several levels, i.e. legislative, political, etc. Nevertheless, these actions will come at an additional cost paid by the society either through increased electricity bills or through public financing for energy security investments. Thus, such policies should be justified on the basis of cost-benefit analysis. Towards this direction, it may be necessary to take into account non-market costs and benefits, i.e. the value that consumers place on interruptions avoided. In order to explore households' perceptions and willingness to pay for securing gas supply for electricity production, an empirical study was conducted by means of the contingent valuation method. The results indicate that consumers are willing to pay a premium on their electricity bills in order to internalize the external costs of electricity production, in terms of energy security, which are caused from imported fuels. (author)

  15. Securing of supply in short and longer term of wood and straw

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schultz, Gert

    2003-01-01

    In Denmark - as well as in the rest of Europe - the importance of biomass as energy source has developed during the last two decades. In the Nordic countries we have seen a rise in utilisation of wood, straw and biogas. Concurrently with this development the trade of biomass has grown and a market has been build up while prices for biofuels has declined by up to 40% in real term prices. The trade of biofuels is expected to increase in the future in order to meet the overall goal and fulfil the international agreements of climate change and reduction of CO 2 . Basically the object of securing supply of biomass for energy production is the same as for all types of fuel or other commodities: to make supply and demand meet at prices the market are able and willing to pay. Price and security of supply are of vital importance for users of biomass - such as Energi E2. Based on these criteria biomass would never have been a fuel for electricity production. The market and supply of biomass is small compared to fossil fuels and the price is 2-3 times the price of coal calculated on an energy basis. But legislation, financial support and tax on fossil fuels have made biomass a competitive fuel for production of electricity and heat. (au)

  16. Present state and problems of the measures for securing stable supply of uranium resources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yoneda, Fumishige

    1982-01-01

    The long-term stable supply of uranium resources must be secured in order to accelerate the development and utilization of nuclear power in Japan. All uranium required in Japan is imported from foreign countries, and depends on small number of suppliers. On the use of uranium, various restrictions have been imposed by bilateral agreements from the viewpoint of nuclear non-proliferation policy. At present, the demand-supply relation in uranium market is not stringent, but in the latter half of 1980s, it is feared that it will be stringent. The prospect of the demand and supply of uranium resources, the state of securing uranium resources, the present policy on uranium resources, the necessity of establishing the new policy, and the active promotion of uranium resource measures are described. The measures to be taken are the promotion of exploration and development of mines, the participation in the management of such foreign projects, the promotion of diversifying the supply sources, the establishment of the structure to accept uranium resources, the promotion of the storage of uranium, and the rearrangement of general coordination and promotion functions for uranium resource procurement. (Kako, I.)

  17. Security of energy supply. Facts and possibilities for action; Energiesicherheit. Fakten und Handlungsmoeglichkeiten

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hake, Juergen-Friedrich [Forschungszentrum Juelich GmbH (Germany). Inst. fuer Energie- und Klimaforschung (IEK), Systemforschung und Technologische Entwicklung (IEK-STE); Rath-Nagel, Stefan

    2015-04-15

    The energy infrastructure of a country has a decisive influence on the standard of living there, the competitiveness of its economy and its inner political stability. In the debate about the energy transition in Germany attention is primarily being focused on the future energy mix and how it might change, but in particular on the technical challenges involved as well as the costs of the transition as a whole. Given the growing instability that will arise in the electricity networks in the process of transition, as well as the problems that could occur with the supply of natural gas as a result of the Ukraine crisis, the issue of security of energy supply in Germany (as well as Europe) needs to be addressed anew: Is the energy supply at risk? What sources are available at home and abroad, and what leeway is there for changing the procurement mix?.

  18. Standard for supply security. A minimum standard to guarantee the balance between electricity demand and supply for the long term

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scheepers, M.J.J.; Van Werven, M.J.N.; Seebregts, A.J.; Poort, J.P.; De Nooij, M.; Baarsma, B.E.

    2004-05-01

    The development and use of a minimum reliability standard in the Dutch electricity market to guarantee an adequate balance between electricity demand and supply in the longer term are discussed. This standard can be based on the duration of a power outage and the related costs for society relative to the costs to prevent the power outage. The reliability standard can be translated in an adequacy standard when the reliability of foreign electricity supply to the Dutch market is taken into account. With a theoretical analysis and an assessment of the use of standards in foreign electricity markets and other sectors this study provides a survey of the use of standards in securing public interests. In electricity markets reliability standards can be used obligatory or only to inform market participants of the adequacy of supply preferred by consumers. If no standard is used, the market should rely on the economic incentives provided by contracts and liability. This study proposes to use a reliability standard for calculating the required generation capacity in an ex-ante market analysis using different future scenarios. On the basis of several market indicators, expected market developments can be monitored. Assessment of the market developments relative to the required generation capacity will give a signal to market participants with respect to the expected adequacy in the longer term (7 to 10 years). The assessment and the resulting signal should help to improve market transparency and assist producers, suppliers and consumers in their decisions towards an effective and efficient response on long-term market developments. Market monitoring results can be used by the government to take specific action, if necessary, to reduce barriers to invest. However, more general policy measures should not be linked to the monitoring results since this could provoke strategic behaviour [nl

  19. Security of supply in liberated electricity markets - key issues and experiences in OECD countries (work in progress)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stridbaek, Ulrik

    2005-06-01

    Security of supply of electricity could in principle refer to any parts of the value chain from fuel input to delivery of electricity to the final costumer with the expected quality. Concerns about security of supply are usually focused on three aspects: Timely and adequate supply of the input fuel for electricity generation is a prerequisite - security of energy supply. There has to be timely and adequate infrastructure in place to transform the input fuel into electricity and transport it to the final costumer - adequacy of generation and transmission capacity. Finally, it is an operational challenge to make the electricity system work and deliver at the expected quality - secure operation of the electricity system. Security of supply becomes relevant in a policy context from concerns about market failures in any parts of the value chain or, indeed, from the perspective that policy will set the framework for markets to serve as an instrument to secure the supply. This paper discusses some of the experiences with security of supply concerns and market failures in these three basic segments of the value chain; fuel input, adequate generation and transmission capacity and secure operation of the system, with an emphasis on the role of the market to serve as an efficient instrument. In the aftermath of the large black outs of electricity systems in North America, Italy and Sweden/Denmark IEA initiated a project on 'Transmission Reliability and Power System Security in Competitive Electricity Markets'. The results of this work will be published towards the end of 2005. After a decade with liberalised electricity markets in some pioneer regions, IEA now also finds it timely to analyse some of the lessons in a forthcoming publication. Recent and ongoing IEA-work thereby covers all the main aspects of security of supply. This paper summarises the key findings and messages, with a focus on the work in progress on lessons from liberalisation

  20. Improvement in supply chain management for oil and gas sector using drag reduction theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anjum, A.A.; Chughtai, A.; Shafeeq, A.; Muhammad, A.

    2010-01-01

    Supply chain management is an integrative philosophy about managing the flow of distribution channels from supplier to the consumer. PARCO, an oil and gas company in Pakistan has three existing pipelines. Out of three, two pipelines are running parallel from Karachi to Mehmood kot. One pipeline is of crude oil and meeting the demand of PARCO refinery while second pipeline is of High Speed Diesel (HSD) and third pipeline is of (HSD and Kerosene) running from Mehmood Kot to Machhike (Sheikhupura). PARCO supply petroleum products from Shikarpur, Mehmood Kot, Faisalabad and Machhike to oil marketing companies (OMCs) as per their share, standard and demand. The purpose of these pipelines is to meet the country demand for petroleum products at various locations all over Pakistan. In the peak season when OMCs have high demand and receipt of product from PARCO pipelines are less, there is a need to enhance the flow rate of oil inside the PARCO pipelines to fulfill the demand of OMCs. This could be done economically by the application of drag reduction theory. So by injecting drag reducer, dragging of the oil inside the pipeline could appreciably be reduced thereby improving the pumping of oil. (author)

  1. World Energy Balance Outlook and OPEC Production Capacity: Implications for Global Oil Security

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Azadeh M. Rouhani

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available The imbalance between energy resource availability, demand, and production capacity, coupled with inherent economic and environmental uncertainties make strategic energy resources planning, management, and decision-making a challenging process. In this paper, a descriptive approach has been taken to synthesize the world’s energy portfolio and the global energy balance outlook in order to provide insights into the role of Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC in maintaining “stability” and “balance” of the world’s energy market. This synthesis illustrates that in the absence of stringent policies, i.e., if historical trends of the global energy production and consumption hold into the future, it is unlikely that non-conventional liquid fuels and renewable energy sources will play a dominant role in meeting global energy demand by 2030. This should be a source of major global concern as the world may be unprepared for an ultimate shift to other energy sources when the imminent peak oil production is reached. OPEC’s potential to impact the supply and price of oil could enable this organization to act as a facilitator or a barrier for energy transition policies, and to play a key role in the global energy security through cooperative or non-cooperative strategies. It is argued that, as the global energy portfolio becomes more balanced in the long run, OPEC may change its typical high oil price strategies to drive the market prices to lower equilibria, making alternative energy sources less competitive. Alternatively, OPEC can contribute to a cooperative portfolio management approach to help mitigate the gradually emerging energy crisis and global warming, facilitating a less turbulent energy transition path while there is time.

  2. European oil product supply modelling; Modelisation de l`offre de produits petroliers en Europe

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Saint-Antonin, V

    1998-12-11

    Over the last few years, trends in European oil product consumption (in terms of level as structure and quality) has important implications of the refining industry. In this context, the purpose of this thesis consists in building a mathematical programming model applied to the European refineries in order to determine oil product supply prices, European refining industry investments and oil product exchanges of the European Union. The first part presents the reason for our choice for a long-term aggregate multi-refineries linear programming model, based on European refineries characteristics and the objectives of our model. Its dual properties are studied in detail and we focus particularly on the European exchange modelling. In the second part, an analysis of the European refining trends leads us to identify parameters and variables of the model that are essential to the aggregate representation of the European oil product supply. The third part is devoted to the use of this model, regarding two scenarios of increasingly stringent specifications for gasoline and diesel oil. Our interest for these products is due to their important share of the European oil product consumption and the not insignificant responsibility of the transport sector for atmospheric pollution. Finally, in order to have the use of an overall picture of the European refining industry, we build a regression model summarizing, though a few equations, the main relations between the major endogenous and exogenous variables o the LP model. Based on pseudo-data, this kind of model provides a simple and robust representation of the oil product supply. But a more specialized analysis of the refining industry operations, turning on a technical assessment of processing units, is reliant on the use of an optimization model such as the model we have built. (author) 102 refs.

  3. Oil and international security: old and new issues; Petrole et securite internationale: de nouveaux enjeux

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Noel, P

    1998-09-01

    This paper questions the effectiveness of the link between international oil and (inter)national security. First, it explains an acknowledge the rise and decline of the traditional case of this link: the threat that so called ''oil dependence'' inflicts upon the national economy, hence the problem it raises for government. The reason for that decline is looked for in the emergence of multiple forms of competition in oil and energy markets, making the ''oil weapon'' less credible and its use less desirable and less possible. In oil like in any other commodity, the normal situation is the competition between suppliers for access to markets. For all basic economics tells us and experience has confirmed, analyses and policies (at least in France) are still strongly influenced by the ''oil security'' thinking shaped in the eve of the 1970 crises. Yet, those fallacies may be the strongest obstacle to the acknowledgment of the real oil security issues we face. The main one is the possible political destabilization of the Middle East due to oil competition between its members in an increasingly competitive world market. The consequences on regional antagonisms of the come back of Iraqi oil to the market on one hand, the internal stability of Iran and Saudi Arabia in a situation of lasting low oil revenues on the other hand, are reviewed as the main possible factors of regional destabilization in a context of strong competition in the world oil market. A large scale political burst with major oil producers concerned would certainly hurt developed and developing economy. That leads us to this paradoxical situation: the very cause of the decline of the traditional oil dependence issue is, due to Middle East situation, the main cause of possible destabilization of world oil market today. (author)

  4. Oil and international security: old and new issues; Petrole et securite internationale: de nouveaux enjeux

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Noel, P

    1998-09-01

    This paper questions the effectiveness of the link between international oil and (inter)national security. First, it explains an acknowledge the rise and decline of the traditional case of this link: the threat that so called ''oil dependence'' inflicts upon the national economy, hence the problem it raises for government. The reason for that decline is looked for in the emergence of multiple forms of competition in oil and energy markets, making the ''oil weapon'' less credible and its use less desirable and less possible. In oil like in any other commodity, the normal situation is the competition between suppliers for access to markets. For all basic economics tells us and experience has confirmed, analyses and policies (at least in France) are still strongly influenced by the ''oil security'' thinking shaped in the eve of the 1970 crises. Yet, those fallacies may be the strongest obstacle to the acknowledgment of the real oil security issues we face. The main one is the possible political destabilization of the Middle East due to oil competition between its members in an increasingly competitive world market. The consequences on regional antagonisms of the come back of Iraqi oil to the market on one hand, the internal stability of Iran and Saudi Arabia in a situation of lasting low oil revenues on the other hand, are reviewed as the main possible factors of regional destabilization in a context of strong competition in the world oil market. A large scale political burst with major oil producers concerned would certainly hurt developed and developing economy. That leads us to this paradoxical situation: the very cause of the decline of the traditional oil dependence issue is, due to Middle East situation, the main cause of possible destabilization of world oil market today. (author)

  5. Energy supply, its demand and security issues for developed and emerging economies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Asif, M.; Muneer, T.

    2007-01-01

    Energy is inevitable for human life and a secure and accessible supply of energy is crucial for the sustainability of modern societies. Continuation of the use of fossil fuels is set to face multiple challenges: depletion of fossil fuel reserves, global warming and other environmental concerns, geopolitical and military conflicts and of late, continued and significant fuel price rise. These problems indicate an unsustainable situation. Renewable energy is the solution to the growing energy challenges. Renewable energy resources such as solar, wind, biomass, and wave and tidal energy, are abundant, inexhaustible and environmentally friendly. This article provides an overview of the current and projected energy scene. Five countries, that presently have a significant impact on global energy situation, have been studied in this work. These include China, India, Russia, UK and USA. Together the present energy budget of these countries is roughly half that of the globe. Four of the above five countries that are discussed in this work - China, India, UK and USA are all net importers of energy and are heavily dependent on imports of fuel to sustain their energy demands. Their respective local oil reserves will only last 9, 6, 7 and 4 years, respectively. China, the emerging economy in the world, is however making exemplary development in renewable energy - in 2004 renewable energy in China grew by 25% against 7-9% growth in electricity demand. While in the same year, wind energy in China saw a growth of 35%. China is also leading the global solar thermal market as it has already installed solar collectors over 65 million square meters, accounting for more than 40% of the world's total collector area. This article quantifies the period of exhaustion of the current major energy sources, i.e. coal, oil, gas and nuclear fissile material. Projected demand for energy is also presented and a feasibility of switch over to renewable energy is discussed. The article also presents

  6. Oil Producers vulnerability: restrictions for oil supply strategy - OPEC, Mexico and Norway; Indicadores de vulnerabilidade do produtor de petroleo: restricoes a estrategia de oferta - OPEP, Mexico and Norway

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Delgado, Fernanda; Schaeffer, Roberto; Szklo, Alexandre [Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ), RJ (Brazil). Coordenacao dos Programas de Pos-Graduacao de Engenharia (COPPE)

    2008-07-01

    Few analysts address the socio-economic vulnerability faced by large oil producers countries that restricts their oil supply strategies. However, such as net import countries may be vulnerable to oil supply, large oil exporters countries may also become vulnerable due to their socio-economic dependence on oil, as export revenues are so important to their wealth generation and their populations' well-fare status. The objective of this paper is to evaluate the vulnerabilities of some oil exporters as the OPEC's member-countries, Mexico and Norway face, or may face, and that may restrict their degree of freedom for productive decision making (including investments) and for elaborating oil supply strategies (aiming at taking a larger share of the oil revenue). In order to do that this paper is divided in 3 sections. Initially, socio-economic vulnerability indicators for the oil exporting countries are presented, built and analyzed. Socio-economic vulnerability indicators comprehend, for instance, the following dimensions: physical, productive, fiscal, commercial, macroeconomic and social. The next section regards the application of a multi criteria method, the AHP - Analytic Hierarchy Process in order to summarize and organize the indicators. Finally, implications of the socio-economic vulnerabilities of these oil export countries for the world oil supply and price are derived. (author)

  7. Supply chain design under uncertainty for advanced biofuel production based on bio-oil gasification

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li, Qi; Hu, Guiping

    2014-01-01

    An advanced biofuels supply chain is proposed to reduce biomass transportation costs and take advantage of the economics of scale for a gasification facility. In this supply chain, biomass is converted to bio-oil at widely distributed small-scale fast pyrolysis plants, and after bio-oil gasification, the syngas is upgraded to transportation fuels at a centralized biorefinery. A two-stage stochastic programming is formulated to maximize biofuel producers' annual profit considering uncertainties in the supply chain for this pathway. The first stage makes the capital investment decisions including the locations and capacities of the decentralized fast pyrolysis plants as well as the centralized biorefinery, while the second stage determines the biomass and biofuels flows. A case study based on Iowa in the U.S. illustrates that it is economically feasible to meet desired demand using corn stover as the biomass feedstock. The results show that the locations of fast pyrolysis plants are sensitive to uncertainties while the capacity levels are insensitive. The stochastic model outperforms the deterministic model in the stochastic environment, especially when there is insufficient biomass. Also, farmers' participation can have a significant impact on the profitability and robustness of this supply chain. - Highlights: • Decentralized supply chain design for advanced biofuel production is considered. • A two-stage stochastic programming is formulated to consider uncertainties. • Farmers' participation has a significant impact on the biofuel supply chain design

  8. Risk assessment in the upstream crude oil supply chain: Leveraging analytic hierarchy process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Briggs, Charles Awoala

    For an organization to be successful, an effective strategy is required, and if implemented appropriately the strategy will result in a sustainable competitive advantage. The importance of decision making in the oil industry is reflected in the magnitude and nature of the industry. Specific features of the oil industry supply chain, such as its longer chain, the complexity of its transportation system, its complex production and storage processes, etc., pose challenges to its effective management. Hence, understanding the risks, the risk sources, and their potential impacts on the oil industry's operations will be helpful in proposing a risk management model for the upstream oil supply chain. The risk-based model in this research uses a three-level analytic hierarchy process (AHP), a multiple-attribute decision-making technique, to underline the importance of risk analysis and risk management in the upstream crude oil supply chain. Level 1 represents the overall goal of risk management; Level 2 is comprised of the various risk factors; and Level 3 represents the alternative criteria of the decision maker as indicated on the hierarchical structure of the crude oil supply chain. Several risk management experts from different oil companies around the world were surveyed, and six major types of supply chain risks were identified: (1) exploration and production, (2) environmental and regulatory compliance, (3) transportation, (4) availability of oil, (5) geopolitical, and (6) reputational. Also identified are the preferred methods of managing risks which include; (1) accept and control the risks, (2) avoid the risk by stopping the activity, or (3) transfer or share the risks to other companies or insurers. The results from the survey indicate that the most important risk to manage is transportation risk with a priority of .263, followed by exploration/production with priority of .198, with an overall inconsistency of .03. With respect to major objectives the most

  9. System Dynamics of Polysilicon for Solar Photovoltaics: A Framework for Investigating the Energy Security of Renewable Energy Supply Chains

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Debra Sandor

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Renewable energy, produced with widely available low-cost energy resources, is often included as a component of national strategies to address energy security and sustainability. Market and political forces cannot disrupt the sun or wind, unlike oil and gas supplies. However, the cost of renewable energy is highly dependent on technologies manufactured through global supply chains in leading manufacturing countries. The countries that contribute to the global supply chains may take actions that, directly or indirectly, influence global access to materials and components. For example, high-purity polysilicon, a key material in solar photovoltaics, has experienced significant price fluctuations, affecting the manufacturing capacity and cost of both polysilicon and solar panels. This study developed and validated an initial system dynamics framework to gain insights into global trade in polysilicon. The model represents an initial framework for exploration. Three regions were modeled—China, the United States, and the rest of the world—for a range of trade scenarios to understand the impacts of import duties and non-price drivers on the relative volumes of imports and domestic supply. The model was validated with the historical case of China imposing an import duty on polysilicon from the United States, the European Union, and South Korea, which altered the regional flows of polysilicon—in terms of imports, exports, and domestic production—to varying degrees. As expected, the model tracked how regional demand shares and influx volumes decrease as a duty on a region increases. Using 2016 as a reference point, in the scenarios examined for U.S. exports to China, each 10% increase in the import duty results in a 40% decrease in import volume. The model also indicates that, under the scenarios investigated, once a duty has been imposed on a region, the demand share from that region declines and does not achieve pre-duty levels, even as global

  10. Determination of aluminium and physicochemical parameters in the palm oil estates water supply at Johor, Malaysia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siti Farizwana, M R; Mazrura, S; Zurahanim Fasha, A; Ahmad Rohi, G

    2010-01-01

    The study was to determine the concentration of aluminium (Al) and study the physicochemical parameters (pH, total dissolved solids (TDS), turbidity, and residual chlorine) in drinking water supply in selected palm oil estates in Kota Tinggi, Johor. Water samples were collected from the estates with the private and the public water supplies. The sampling points were at the water source (S), the treatment plant outlet (TPO), and at the nearest houses (H1) and the furthest houses (H2) from the TPO. All estates with private water supply failed to meet the NSDWQ for Al with mean concentration of 0.99 ± 1.52 mg/L. However, Al concentrations in all public water supply estates were well within the limit except for one estate. The pH for all samples complied with the NSDWQ except from the private estates for the drinking water supply with an acidic pH (5.50 ± 0.90). The private water supply showed violated turbidity value in the drinking water samples (14.2 ± 24.1 NTU). Insufficient amount of chlorination was observed in the private water supply estates (0.09 ± 0.30 mg/L). Private water supplies with inefficient water treatment served unsatisfactory drinking water quality to the community which may lead to major health problems.

  11. Foreign research reactor uranium supply program: The Y-12 national security complex process

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nelson, T.; Eddy, B.G.

    2010-01-01

    The Foreign Research Reactor (FRR) Uranium Supply Program at the Y-12 National Security Complex supports the nonproliferation objectives of the HEU Disposition Program, the Reduced Enrichment Research and Test Reactors (RERTR) Program, and the United States FRR Spent Nuclear Fuel (SNF) Acceptance Program. The Y-12 National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) Y-12 Site Office maintains the prime contracts with foreign governments for the supply of Low-Enriched Uranium (LEU) for their research reactors. The LEU is produced by down blending Highly Enriched Uranium (HEU) that has been declared surplus to the U.S. national defense needs. The down blending and sale of the LEU supports the Surplus HEU Disposition Program Record of Decision to make the HEU non-weapons usable and to recover the economic value of the uranium to the extent feasible. This program supports the important U.S. government and nuclear nonproliferation commitment to serve as a reliable and cost-effective uranium supplier for those foreign research reactors that are converting or have converted to LEU fuel under the guidance of the NNSA RERTR Program. In conjunction with the FRR SNF Acceptance Program which supports the global nonproliferation efforts to disposition U.S.-origin HEU, the Y-12 FRR Uranium Supply Program can provide the LEU for the replacement fuel fabrication. In addition to feedstock for fuel fabrication, Y-12 supplies LEU for target fabrication for medical isotope production. The Y-12 process uses supply forecasting tools, production improvements and efficient delivery preparations to successfully support the global research reactor community

  12. Secure and Efficient Electricity Supply. During the Transition to Low Carbon Power Systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2013-07-01

    Electricity shortages can paralyse our modern economies. All governments fear rolling black-outs and their economic consequences, especially in economies increasingly based on digital technologies. Over the last two decades, the development of markets for power has produced cost reduction, technological innovation, increased cross border trade and assured a steady supply of electricity. Now, IEA countries face the challenge of maintaining security of electricity supply during the transition to low-carbon economies. Low-carbon policies are pushing electricity markets into novel territories at a time when most of the generation and network capacity will have to be replaced. Most notably, wind and solar generation, now an integral part of electricity markets, can present new operating and investment challenges for generation, networks and the regional integration of electricity markets. In addition, the resilience of power systems facing more frequent natural disasters is also of increasing concern. IEA Ministers mandated the Secretariat to work on the Electricity Security Action Plan (ESAP), expanding to electricity the energy security mission of the IEA. This paper outlines the key conclusions and policy recommendations to ''keep the lights on'' while reducing CO2 emissions and increasing the efficiency.

  13. The Y-12 National Security Complex Foreign Research Reactor Uranium Supply Production

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nelson, T. [Nuclear Technology and Nonproliferation Programs, B and W Y-12, L.L.C., Y-12 National Security Complex, Oak Ridge, Tennessee (United States); Keller, A.P. [Disposition and Supply Programs, B and W Y-12, L.L.C., Y-12 National Security Complex, Oak Ridge, Tennessee (United States)

    2011-07-01

    The Foreign Research Reactor (FRR) Uranium Supply Program at the Y-12 National Security Complex supports the nonproliferation objectives of the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) HEU Disposition, the Reduced Enrichment Research and Test Reactors (RERTR), and the United States (U.S.) FRR Spent Nuclear Fuel (SNF) Acceptance Programs. The FRR Supply Program supports the important U.S. government nuclear nonproliferation commitment to serve as a reliable and cost-effective uranium supplier for those foreign research reactors that are converting or have converted to Low-Enriched Uranium (LEU) fuel under the RERTR Program. The NNSA Y-12 Site Office maintains the prime contracts with foreign government agencies for the supply of LEU for their research reactors. The LEU is produced by down blending Highly Enriched Uranium (HEU) that has been declared surplus to the U.S. national defense needs. The down blending and sale of the LEU supports the Surplus HEU Disposition Program Record of Decision to make the HEU non-weapons usable and to recover the economic value of the uranium to the extent feasible. In addition to uranium metal feedstock for fuel fabrication, Y-12 can produce LEU in different forms to support new fuel development or target fabrication for medical isotope production. With production improvements and efficient delivery preparations, Y-12 continues to successfully support the global research reactor community. (author)

  14. Security of supply in competitive electricity markets: The Nordic power market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Singh, Balbir

    2004-01-01

    It is well known that in the absence of a complete set of markets or under conditions of monopoly and imperfect competition, optimal provision of quality can not be taken for granted. Market set in the restructured electricity markets is not complete, physical networks per definition are natural monopolies, market-power issues are yet to be resolved, not all the services supplied through the restructured frameworks are private goods and risk of government intervention is high during the times when market prices signal shortages. Sole reliance on the energy-only markets for optimal provision of security of supply under such conditions is mistaken. On the other hand, centralization of decisions for provision of reserve capacity, such as the gas-reserve capacity proposal in the Norwegian system is not an efficient substitute for missing or imperfect markets. The solution lies in the design of permanent market-mechanisms that enhance the ability of energy-only markets to handle the medium and long-term security of supply. A carefully designed reserve energy certificates mechanism is a viable alternative in this context. (Author)

  15. Electricity and long term supply security. Search for power market respectful legal instruments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Finon, D.; Pignon, V.

    2006-01-01

    This paper, also published in 'ISMEA Economie et Societe' Journal (Energy series 2006, no.10), deals with theoretical aspects of long term electricity supply security. Market prices and contractual arrangements on the physical and financial electricity markets do not allow to create sufficient incentives to invest in adequate capacity for guaranteeing the appropriate level of supply in every circumstance. The long term security of supply by capacity adequacy must be conceptualized as a collective good. Alternative solutions to reach capacity adequacy which have been adopted in different markets are successively considered: public procurement of strategic reserves, capacity payment, capacity obligation with exchangeable rights. Each one presents theoretical limits and practical drawbacks when implemented in complex markets. That brings out the interest of mechanism of centralized auctions for forward capacity contracts (or reliability options); it combines controls by quantity and by price while stabilizing investment in peak power plants and is compatible with energy and reserves markets, that is not the case of the three other instruments. (authors)

  16. Expanding electricity capacity in Thailand to meet the twin challenges of supply security and environmental protection

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nakawiro, Thanawat; Bhattacharyya, Subhes C.; Limmeechokchai, Bundit

    2008-01-01

    Rapid growth in electricity demand in Thailand is a major challenge for electric utilities trying to ensure adequate supply. Continued reliance on natural gas for power supply makes the supply mix non-diversified and exposes the country to supply risks while a diversification to other fossil fuels imposes additional environmental burdens. To find an acceptable solution to this twin challenge, this paper assesses four scenarios of electricity capacity expansion planning for Thailand for the period between 2011 and 2025 under two different assumptions of fuel prices to reflect the case of international high oil price affecting cost of fuels for power generation in Thailand. It is found that the lowest environmental emissions are obtained from the scenario where power generation is highly dominated by natural gas. In contrast, the least cost electricity generation is achieved from the case if nuclear power plant is added into the Thai power system. Reliance on natural gas for power generation increases the spending on gas purchase as a share of the gross domestic product (GDP) - between 2.38% and 3.61% of (GDP). In addition, fuel import dependence, particularly for natural gas and coal, increases exposing the country to possible price volatility. (author)

  17. Rationales for capacity remuneration mechanisms: Security of supply externalities and asymmetric investment incentives

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Keppler, Jan Horst

    2017-01-01

    Economics so far provides little conceptual guidance on capacity remuneration mechanisms (CRM) in deregulated electricity markets. Ubiquitous in real-world electricity markets, CRMs are introduced country by country in an ad hoc manner, lacking the theoretical legitimacy and the conceptual coherence enabling comparability and coordination. They are eyed with suspicion by a profession wedded to a theoretical benchmark model that argues that competitive energy-only markets with VOLL pricing provide adequate levels of capacity. While the benchmark model is a consistent starting point for discussions about electricity market design, it ignores the two market failures that make CRMs the practically appropriate and theoretically justified policy response to capacity issues. First, energy-only markets fail to internalize security-of-supply externalities as involuntary curbs on demand under scarcity pricing generate social costs beyond the private non-consumption of electricity. Second, when demand is inelastic and the potential capacity additions are discretely sized, investors face asymmetric incentives and will underinvest at the margin rather than overinvest. After presenting the key features of the theoretical benchmark model, this paper conceptualizes security of supply externalities and asymmetric investment incentives and concludes with some consideration regarding design of CRMs. - Highlights: • Capacity remuneration mechanisms are ubiquitous in real-world electricity markets. • Theory claims that energy-only markets can provide optimal capacity on their own. • However theory fails to account for two types of market failures. • Involuntary demand curbs under VOLL-pricing create security-of-supply externalities. • With inelastic demand, discretely sized capacity options lead to underinvestment.

  18. Future electricity supplies must be secured - Swiss outlook for 2035 / 2050

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2009-01-01

    This comprehensive article reviews an update made in 2009 by the Swiss Association of Electricity Enterprises VSE on their paper 'Outlook 2006 on Swiss electricity supply for the period up to 2035 / 2050'. The association is of the opinion that the paper can still form the basis for issue-related public discussion on energy-related questions. The Swiss 'four-pillar' strategy - energy efficiency, renewable energy, large power stations and international energy policy - is noted and supported. The special role played by electricity in the Swiss energy mix is discussed and the issue of security of supply is examined. Possible shortages that could occur in the future are discussed, as is the question of carbon dioxide emissions. Economic viability and power prices are discussed. Energy efficiency and power production options are also examined. Combined heat and power, hydropower and nuclear power are examined and, finally, import and export options reviewed

  19. The Kyoto protocol - a victim of supply security? or: if Maslow were in energy politics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Frei, Christoph W. E-mail: christoph.frei@weforum.org

    2004-07-01

    History suggests that energy policy priorities can be stratified, similar to the way Maslow structured his famous pyramid of human needs. The essay below claims that access to energy, supply security, energy costs, environmental issues and social acceptance are not subject to trade-off, but to a hierarchy that underlies the importance of satisfying lower-order needs before addressing the higher-order needs. The essay demonstrates the hierarchy with an 'energy policy needs pyramid' based on historical evidence. The pyramid is used to analyze the viability of current items of the energy policy agenda. Conclusions indicate that the Kyoto protocol might be a victim of supply insecurity, that OPEC is good for the environment and that environmentalists should make the fight against energy poverty their first priority in order to achieve their overall goals.

  20. The Kyoto protocol - a victim of supply security? or: if Maslow were in energy politics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frei, Christoph W.

    2004-01-01

    History suggests that energy policy priorities can be stratified, similar to the way Maslow structured his famous pyramid of human needs. The essay below claims that access to energy, supply security, energy costs, environmental issues and social acceptance are not subject to trade-off, but to a hierarchy that underlies the importance of satisfying lower-order needs before addressing the higher-order needs. The essay demonstrates the hierarchy with an 'energy policy needs pyramid' based on historical evidence. The pyramid is used to analyze the viability of current items of the energy policy agenda. Conclusions indicate that the Kyoto protocol might be a victim of supply insecurity, that OPEC is good for the environment and that environmentalists should make the fight against energy poverty their first priority in order to achieve their overall goals

  1. US oil policy and energy security; Politique petroliere americaine et securite energetique

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Noel, P

    2002-05-15

    Although the energy dependence reached its historical maximum and will continue to increase for the next 20 years, the USA keep their oil policy. For the economist this policy is reasonable because of the poor room for the US imports reduction costs. To explain these conclusions the author discusses on the following topics: the links between the oil dependence and the energy security, the oil policy after Reagan, the oil policy evolution - or no evolution - facing the increasing dependency and the Cheney report. (A.L.B.)

  2. Russian gas export strategy and security of supply concerns in Europe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stern, J.P.

    1992-01-01

    Despite great publicity given to security of supply problems associated with Russian gas exports to Europe, these problems seem to be manageable. While the risk of short term technical breakdown exists, we are more likely to see a significant increase in Russian gas exports to Europe, than a significant fall. Increases could be achieved in the short term by moving more gas through the existing infrastructure. The restructuring of sales and transit relationships between Russia and other former Soviet republics (especially the Ukraine) as well as former CMEA member states in Central/Eastern Europe will be very important if export relationships are to be maintained and expanded. 7 refs., 1 tab

  3. Analysis And Assessment Of The Security Method Against Incidental Contamination In The Collective Water Supply System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Szpak Dawid

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents the main types of surface water incidental contaminations and the security method against incidental contamination in water sources. Analysis and assessment the collective water supply system (CWSS protection against incidental contamination was conducted. Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA was used. The FMEA method allow to use the product or process analysis, identification of weak points, and implementation the corrections and new solutions for eliminating the source of undesirable events. The developed methodology was shown in application case. It was found that the risk of water contamination in water-pipe network of the analyzed CWSS caused by water source incidental contamination is at controlled level.

  4. The COMURHEX 2 project. Investing in UF6 long-term security of supply

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bouzon, Pierre; Lacombe, Philippe; Durante, Pierre; Teyssier, Patrick

    2008-01-01

    The front-end nuclear fuel supply chain for LWRs encompasses four major industrial stages that are mining and concentration, conversion, enrichment, and eventually fuel fabrication. The different stages involve uranium in different chemical and physical forms. Enrichment of the 235-U fissile isotope requires gaseous UF6. As the standard output of mine is U3O8, referred to as ''yellow cake'', a purely chemical stage is therefore needed to fluorinate U3O8 and turn it into UFe: this is the conversion stage. U3O8 inventories management is thus performed at the conversion sites.Purification of the mining concentrates is also needed prior to actual conversion into UFe. This step is important because the front-end supply chain facilities have strict specifications concerning impurities. The conversion stage may involve intermediary products, namely UO3 and/or UF4, depending on the industrial scheme implemented. With the Comurhex 2 project, AREVA is not only shaping the future of conversion market and contributing to the security of supply of its customers, but it is also developing innovative techniques and reorganizing the conversion process steps. Providing such guaranteed and valuable conversion supply with a brand new plant is our strong commitment to a sustainable nuclear fuel cycle. And AREVA is the first that has launched such a project, looking further ahead. The three main axes of sustainable development, economical, social, and environmental, are truly taken into account in the development of the new project.

  5. Long term Gas Supply Security in an Enlarged Europe. Final Report ENGAGED Project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van Oostvoorn, F.; Likachev, V.; Morgan, T.

    2004-12-01

    The title project concerned a study on the long-term gas supply security in Europe with a focus on the developments, risks and policies in the candidate countries in Eastern Europe. For that reason the report not only includes a European and EU-30 wide scenario analysis but also chapters on specific topics. One study (a chapter in this report) concerns the gas market and regulation developments in a number of relevant candidate countries. Another chapter presents a Russian vision on gas demand, production and supplies from Russia and also includes a paragraph on the supplies from other neighbours and the transit issues in the Ukraine. Finally, the report contains a chapter discussing the required network infrastructure for bringing the gas from external gas suppliers to the EU-30 markets. Hereby it analysis and tests the network flexibility to cope with some unlikely and unexpected supply interruptions in main pipelines to EU markets. The background information of the studies underlying the chapters can be partly found in the annexes and in the individual task reports. During the project the results of the study were discussed at several seminars in candidate countries and particularly on the final seminar in Prague, in June 2003, with different and important stakeholders and market actors

  6. Examination of oil sands projects : gasification, CO{sub 2} emissions and supply costs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Elliott, K. [Energy Resources Conservation Board, Calgary, AB (Canada)

    2008-10-15

    Non-conventional resources such as Alberta's oil sands are experiencing increased global interest because of the decline in global conventional oil and natural gas reserves. Bitumen extraction and upgrading is an energy intensive process. This paper provided a general discussion of Alberta's oil sands reserves, production and energy requirements. The paper discussed the application of different technologies to the oil sands, and in particular, the use of gasification as a method to produce bitumen-derived synthesis gas. Two oil sands projects currently under construction and implementing gasification technology were briefly described. The paper also provided a comparison of emission intensities from projects that employ gasification leading to a forecast of carbon dioxide equivalent emissions from the oil sands. The impact of Alberta's legislation and the federal framework on greenhouse gas emissions were also examined. Last, the paper discussed a supply cost methodology to compare an integrated extraction and upgrading project using gasification versus a similar project using a conventional steam methane reforming process (SMR). It was concluded that after comparing carbon dioxide emission intensities across different types of projects, the type of project that would be most heavily impacted by greenhouse gas emissions penalties was an in-situ extraction with an upgrading project that employed gasification technology. 36 refs., 5 tabs., 12 figs., 1 appendix.

  7. The evaluation of supply chain performance in the Oil Products Distribution Company, using information technology indicators and fuzzy TOPSIS technique

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daryosh Mohamadi Janaki

    2018-08-01

    Full Text Available Information Technology (IT plays an essential role on development of effective supply chain planning and it can improve the supply chain performance, either directly or indirectly. As a national industry, the National Iranian Oil Products Distribution Company involves a large number of organizations within its supply chain. Therefore, this descriptive-survey uses information sharing indicators, fuzzy TOPSIS technique based on managers and expert opinions to evaluate and to rank some oil products distribution companies. Data are analyzed and the results show that Oil Products Distribution Company of Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari received the highest rank and Farsan maintained the lowest rank compared with other regional companies.

  8. Process modeling and supply chain design for advanced biofuel production based on bio-oil gasification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Qi

    As a potential substitute for petroleum-based fuel, second generation biofuels are playing an increasingly important role due to their economic, environmental, and social benefits. With the rapid development of biofuel industry, there has been an increasing literature on the techno-economic analysis and supply chain design for biofuel production based on a variety of production pathways. A recently proposed production pathway of advanced biofuel is to convert biomass to bio-oil at widely distributed small-scale fast pyrolysis plants, then gasify the bio-oil to syngas and upgrade the syngas to transportation fuels in centralized biorefinery. This thesis aims to investigate two types of assessments on this bio-oil gasification pathway: techno-economic analysis based on process modeling and literature data; supply chain design with a focus on optimal decisions for number of facilities to build, facility capacities and logistic decisions considering uncertainties. A detailed process modeling with corn stover as feedstock and liquid fuels as the final products is presented. Techno-economic analysis of the bio-oil gasification pathway is also discussed to assess the economic feasibility. Some preliminary results show a capital investment of 438 million dollar and minimum fuel selling price (MSP) of $5.6 per gallon of gasoline equivalent. The sensitivity analysis finds that MSP is most sensitive to internal rate of return (IRR), biomass feedstock cost, and fixed capital cost. A two-stage stochastic programming is formulated to solve the supply chain design problem considering uncertainties in biomass availability, technology advancement, and biofuel price. The first-stage makes the capital investment decisions including the locations and capacities of the decentralized fast pyrolysis plants and the centralized biorefinery while the second-stage determines the biomass and biofuel flows. The numerical results and case study illustrate that considering uncertainties can be

  9. Secure energy supply without coal and nuclear power?; Eine sichere Energieversorgung ohne Kohle und Kernenergie?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Clement, W. [Office Wolfgang Clement, Bonn (Germany)

    2008-03-15

    The future of energy policy and energy supply is determined by the rising global demand for every kind of energy. Europe is being confronted with an ever growing dependence on imported oil and gas. We thus fall victim to the volatile ups and downs of oil and gas prices on the world markets. These risks to industry, and thus to jobs, are simply underrated, even ignored, in this country. Challenges of this kind require strategic solutions instead of case-by-case decisions which, in addition, more often than not are based on emotion rather than facts. Finding strategic solutions means that we must use all our scientific, technological and industrial potentials to achieve our ambitious goals in climate policy. We must use energy as intelligently as possible, i.e., we must develop and, above all, use CO{sub 2}-free coal-fired power plants, safe nuclear power, renewable energy sources, and take measures to ensure a highly efficient management of energy. Only those four-pronged approach will enable us to ensure optimally competition, continuity of supply, and protection of the environment and the climate. Those who negate or ignore this interrelation are bound to fail in economic and ecological reality. (orig.)

  10. Energy crisis management: ways to cope with disruption in oil supply

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kanoh, T

    1981-03-10

    The causes and impacts of past oil-supply disruptions are examined in terms of the effectiveness of management strategies used to deal with the crisis. Progress is noted in the recent decline of US imports, augmented oil stockpiles, a turnaway from the spot market, oil self-sufficiency for Britain, conservation programs in France, price decontrol in Canada, and alternative energy projects in Japan. The International Energy Agency (IEA) plans to develop an emergency scheme that first seeks to minimize the chance of a crisis arising and then to minimize adverse impacts should one occur. The first part of the strategy incorporates demand management, increased energy production, cooperation between producing and consuming countries, and political stability. The emergency measures for dealing with an actual crisis will emphasize life and safety. 15 references. (DCK)

  11. The impact of environmental regulations on United States crude oil supplies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Godec, M.L.; Biglarbigi, K.

    1991-01-01

    A number of legislative and regulatory initiatives being considered to protect the environment could affect the economics of oil and gas exploration and production (E and P) in the Unites States. This paper summarizes the results of a comprehensive assessment of the potential cumulative energy and economic impacts of environmental regulatory initiatives on United States crude oil supplies. The results of the analysis clearly will determine the level of impact, but the results show that significant impacts are felt over a wide range of regulations, over a wide range of crude oil prices, and at two levels of development for extraction technologies. The regulations evaluated all have an impact on all resource categories analyzed in the study

  12. Untying the Energy Knot of Supply Security, Climate Change, Economic Competitiveness: The Role of Electricity

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bulteel, Paul; Capros, Pantelis

    2007-07-01

    In energy terms, the following decades will be dominated by the challenge of developing a low-carbon, energy-secure and competitive economy. EURELECTRIC launched a study, horizon 2030-2050, to develop a qualified vision about the role of electricity in responding to these challenges. The resulting message is a positive one: with the right policies that include a long-term visibility of carbon pricing to allow integration of climate change impacts in investments and business strategies, it is possible to substantially reduce greenhouse gas emissions without unreasonable costs to the economy, and at the same time to reduce oil and gas dependency. A focus on demand side energy-efficiency is a prerequisite. The development of renewables, of clean fossil fuel technology with carbon capture and storage, and of nuclear energy can make a low-carbon and largely oil-independent power generation mix a reality. This allows for formidable synergies with energy-efficient electro-technologies at the demand side. Two sectors are especially meaningful in this respect: the heating and cooling and road transport sectors, where heat pumps and plug-in hybrid cars respectively can make energy-efficient, oil-independent and low-carbon homes and cars a reality. Although the analysis is based on European conditions, the authors believe that it has worldwide relevance. (auth)

  13. Green paper - towards a European strategy for the security of energy supply, technical document; Livret vert sur la securite de l'approvisionnement en energie, document technique

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2005-07-01

    The Green Paper sets forth a series of questions regarding the security of energy in Europe. It addresses the issue of increased consumption and dependence on oil, and sketches out possible strategies for broadening the energy supply and slowing global warming. It draws an alarming picture of the EU energy situation. If no action is taken, it predicts that the EU energy dependency will climb from 50% in 2000 to 70% in 2030. The particular situation for the main imported fossil fuels is described. This technical paper is particularly devoted to the context, the energy sources, the supply disruption, the energy demand, the fuel balance, the energy technology and the transport of fuel in the EU (transit). (A.L.B.)

  14. Commitment to and preparedness for sustainable supply chain management in the oil and gas industry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wan Ahmad, Wan Nurul K; Rezaei, Jafar; Tavasszy, Lóránt A; de Brito, Marisa P

    2016-09-15

    Our current dependency on the oil and gas (O&G) industry for economic development and social activities necessitates research into the sustainability of the industry's supply chains. At present, studies on sustainable supply chain management (SSCM) practices in the industry do not include firm-internal factors that affect the sustainability strategies employed by different functional areas of its supply chains. Our study aims to address this gap by identifying the relevant internal factors and exploring their relationship with SSCM strategies. Specifically, we discuss the commitment to and preparedness for sustainable practices of companies that operate in upstream and downstream O&G supply chain. We study the impact of these factors on their sustainability strategies of four key supply chain functions: supplier management, production management, product stewardship and logistics management. The analyses of data collected through a survey among 81 companies show that management preparedness may enhance sustainable supply chain strategies in the O&G industry more than commitment does. Among the preparedness measures, management of supply chain operational risks is found to be vital to the sustainability of all supply chain functions except for production management practices. The findings also highlight the central importance of supplier and logistics management to the achievement of sustainable O&G supply chains. Companies must also develop an organizational culture that encourages, for example, team collaboration and proactive behaviour to finding innovative sustainability solutions in order to translate commitment to sustainable practices into actions that can produce actual difference to their SSCM practices. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Energy policy in the European Community: conflicts between the objectives of the unified single market, supply security and a clean environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Surrey, J.

    1992-01-01

    Policies for energy and the environment in Europe were previously the preserve of national governments, but the Commission of the European Community has gained a role in both policy areas in the past few years. This was due to the 1987 Single European Act which, in effect, extends the writ of competition law throughout the energy and other previously excluded sectors, expresses the desire to reduce acid rain and greenhouse gas emissions, and reaffirms Europe's renewed concern for long-term oil and gas supply security after the Gulf War and the disintegration of the USSR. The Commission's proposals for the unified internal energy market were driven by concern for competition and free market forces, and seemed to exclude any scope for long-term policy considerations. This paper argues that the implementation of those proposals will be uneven and protracted, and that the Commission's more recent proposals for reducing CO 2 emissions and the European Energy Charter appear to mark positive steps towards a long-term strategy for a clean environment, energy efficiency, and oil and gas supply security. 27 refs., 4 tabs

  16. Green paper: towards a European strategy for the security of energy supply

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2001-04-01

    The Green Paper ''Towards a European strategy for the security of energy supply in Europe'', published in 2002, gives a clear priority to energy efficiency and renewable. Although it is not a legislative document, it is accepted by the main actors as a reference for all energy related actions. Energie-Cites welcomes the Green Paper. This document gives a clear review of the energy context in Europe and raises fundamental questions, in particular, the place given to energy demand management, presented as the priority policy to ensure security of supply and compliance with the European Union international commitments. However, they precise three important points. It is indispensable that potential energy savings be quantified so as to emphasize the importance of a resource that has always been underestimated. By the same token, the ''demand management'' option presented in the Green Paper would gain in credibility if several alternative scenarios were proposed, the impact and the conditions for the success of such a policy being then more clearly apparent. A policy with a stronger focus on demand management and renewable energy requires one to redirect attention towards a different set of players. (A.L.B.)

  17. Modeling and forecasting the supply of oil and gas: a survey of existing approaches

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Walls, M.A.

    1992-01-01

    This paper surveys the literature on empirical oil and gas supply modeling. The models fall into two broad categories: geologic/engineering and econometric. Two types of geologic/engineering models are surveyed - play analysis, or simulation models and discovery process models. A third category of supply models, 'hybrids', which contain features of both econometric and discovery process models are also discussed. Particular attention is paid to whether or not the models have linkages between a dynamic model of producer optimizing behaviour and the factors governing supply of the resource; whether or not expectations of future prices, costs, and other stochastic variables are incorporated; whether the physical characteristics of non-renewable resources are captured; and how well the models perform. The paper concludes that the best path for future research efforts is a hybrid approach where the econometric component is derived from a stochastic dynamic optimization model of exploration behaviour. 51 refs., 3 figs., 1 tab

  18. The Oil Security Metrics Model: A Tool for Evaluating the Prospective Oil Security Benefits of DOE's Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy R&D Programs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Greene, David L [ORNL; Leiby, Paul Newsome [ORNL

    2006-05-01

    Energy technology R&D is a cornerstone of U.S. energy policy. Understanding the potential for energy technology R&D to solve the nation's energy problems is critical to formulating a successful R&D program. In light of this, the U.S. Congress requested the National Research Council (NRC) to undertake both retrospective and prospective assessments of the Department of Energy's (DOE's) Energy Efficiency and Fossil Energy Research programs (NRC, 2001; NRC, 2005). ("The Congress continued to express its interest in R&D benefits assessment by providing funds for the NRC to build on the retrospective methodology to develop a methodology for assessing prospective benefits." NRC, 2005, p. ES-2) In 2004, the NRC Committee on Prospective Benefits of DOE's Energy Efficiency and Fossil Energy R&D Programs published a report recommending a new framework and principles for prospective benefits assessment. The Committee explicitly deferred the issue of estimating security benefits to future work. Recognizing the need for a rigorous framework for assessing the energy security benefits of its R&D programs, the DOE's Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) developed a framework and approach for defining energy security metrics for R&D programs to use in gauging the energy security benefits of their programs (Lee, 2005). This report describes methods for estimating the prospective oil security benefits of EERE's R&D programs that are consistent with the methodologies of the NRC (2005) Committee and that build on Lee's (2005) framework. Its objective is to define and implement a method that makes use of the NRC's typology of prospective benefits and methodological framework, satisfies the NRC's criteria for prospective benefits evaluation, and permits measurement of that portion of the prospective energy security benefits of EERE's R&D portfolio related to oil. While the Oil Security Metrics (OSM) methodology described

  19. Focus on Energy Security. Costs, Benefits and Financing of Holding Emergency Oil Stocks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stelter, Jan; Nishida, Yuichiro

    2013-07-01

    Oil is traded in a market where uncertainty, price volatility, and sudden supply disruptions are common characteristics. Natural disasters, political disagreements and wars can seriously disrupt oil supply and demand with consequent detrimental impacts on economic activity. One particularly powerful policy tool that IEA member countries have to respond to such disruptions is the release of emergency oil stocks. In its 40 year history, the IEA released stocks on three occasions to reduce the supply disruptions and the associated economic damage. This paper provides a general guide to the existing emergency stockholding system for those countries who are considering the introduction of new stockholding systems or changes to their existing emergency stocks. It draws together analysis of the costs and benefits of emergency stocks, in addition to exploring options for financing the establishment of stocks.

  20. Improving the security of electricity supply - report by a rapporteur ad int

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Forsten, J.; Lehtonen, M.

    2002-07-01

    The storms 'Pyry' and 'Janika', which swept over Finland in October-November 2001, caused serious damages to the operability of electric systems and led to long-term and extensive interruptions in electricity supply especially in Pirkanmaa, Central Home, Poijat-Hame and in the Uusimaa region. Although the security of electricity supply in Finland has in general been on a high level, the needs of customers concerning the quality of electrical power are constantly growing, and the operational reliability of the distribution networks will thereby have to be developed. The Rapporteur ad int. appointed by the Ministry of Trade and Industry on 21 November 2001 considers that such a scheme complementing the price reduction under the Electricity Market Act should be set up that would require a fixed compensation from the distribution network operators in the case of non deliverance of electricity. The fixed compensation should be paid automatically for e.g. interruptions lasting over 12 hours. The sum would depend on the length of the interruption and on the customer's annual rate of the network service fee. The Rapporteur also gives a number of other recommendations for improving the situation. Each distribution network operator is to choose the means of improvement on a technical-economical basis. The required level in the design, construction, operation and maintenance of an electrical network should guarantee that the interruptions in electricity supply would not exceed six hours even in exceptional circumstances. Ensuring electrical safety is of prime importance in disturbance situations. Shortening the interruption times and improving the quality of electricity call for sustained investment planning and activities. The distribution network operators should draw up a ten-year action plan. including measures aiming to reduce interruptions and the related timetables. To be able to keep the interruption times short in extensive cases of disturbance, the distribution

  1. The security of energy supply. The European Commission's Green Paper stimulates debate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2000-01-01

    The growing dependence of the European Union (EU) on external supplies of energy is the central focus of a ''Green Paper'' issued in late November 2000 by the Commission of the European Communities in Brussels. Entitled ''Towards a European Strategy for the Security of Energy Supply'', the Green Paper is intended to stimulate debate on the EU's energy policies and strategies. European member States are ''interdependent'', the Green Paper states, ''both because of climate change issues and the creation of the internal energy market. Any energy policy decision taken by a Member State will inevitably have repercussions on the functioning of the market in other Member States. Energy policy has assumed a new, Community dimension.'' Three main points emerge from the Green Paper: The EU will become increasingly dependent on external energy sources; its enlargement will not change this situation. Based on current forecasts, energy dependence will reach 70% by the year 2030. - The EU has very limited scope to influence energy supply conditions; it is essentially on the demand side that the EU can intervene, mainly by promoting energy saving in buildings and the transport sector. - The EU presently is not in a position to respond to the challenge of climate change and to meet its commitments, notably under the Kyoto Protocol. Featured here is the Executive Summary of the Green Paper

  2. Insecurity of petroleum supplies and external effect: the case of security storage

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sanchez, B.

    1997-01-01

    The public intervention in the domain of security of petroleum supplies is in general justified in the literature by the existence of external effects linked with the phenomenon of insecurity of supplies. This work proposes to analyse in detail the validity of this justification and its implication in terms of energy policy recommendations. The components of the insecurity cost is analyzed in the first part. Two components are retained: the macro-economical effects of insecurity and the monopsony cost. The study of the macro-economical component of insecurity uses a disequilibrium economy-type approach. On the basis of a modeling of the macro-economical effects of insecurity on a conventionalized economy, a relation is evidenced between rupture probability and level of usefulness. This model is applied to 4 European Union countries and the effects of supplies insecurity is measured for each of them. For the monopsony component of supplies insecurity, the additional cost generated by insecurity in relation with the monopsony situation is analyzed. A numerical analysis illustrates this analysis. Then, the relevance of the monopsony concept in the description of the situation of petroleum consuming economies is questioned. The analysis of the US case leads to reject the existence of a petroleum monopsony made of the USA alone and to favour the definition of a monopsony made of the IEA member countries. Then, the analysis of the insecurity cost is made using the external cost notion. This study allows to settle the status of the macro-economical component: there effectively exists a macro-economical cost of insecurity but this cost cannot be considered as external. This result is interesting because many analyses justify the public intervention using the external cost property of the macro-economical effects. On the contrary, the monopsony component can be unambiguously identified as being at the origin of a pecuniary external cost. The insecurity of supplies can be

  3. Methane emissions from the global oil and gas supply chain: recent advances and next steps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zavala Araiza, D.; Herndon, S. C.; Roscioli, J. R.; Yacovitch, T. I.; Knighton, W. B.; Johnson, M.; Tyner, D. R.; Hamburg, S.

    2017-12-01

    A wide body of research has characterized methane emissions from the oil and gas system in the US. In contrast, empirical data is limited for other significant oil and gas producing regions across the world. As a consequence, measuring and characterizing methane emissions across global oil and gas operations will be crucial to the design of effective mitigation strategies. Several countries have announced pledges to reduce methane emissions from this system (e.g., North America, Climate and Clean Air Coalition [CCAC] ministers). In the case of Canada, the federal government recently announced regulations supporting a 40-45% reduction of methane emissions from the oil and gas production systems. For these regulations to be effective, it is critical to understand the current methane emission patterns. We present results from a coordinated multiscale (i.e., airborne-based, ground-based) measurement campaign in Alberta, Canada. We use empirically derived emission estimates to characterize site-level emissions and derive an emissions distribution. Our work shows that many major sources of emissions are unmeasured or underreported. Consistent with previous studies in the US, a small fraction of sites disproportionately account for the majority of emissions: roughly 20% of sites accounted for 75% of emissions. An independent airborne-based regional estimate was 40% lower than the ground-based regional estimate, but not statistically different. Finally, we summarize next steps as part of the CCAC Oil and Gas Methane Study: ongoing work that is targeting oil and gas sectors/production regions with limited empirical data on methane emissions. This work builds on the approach deployed in quantifying methane emissions from the oil and gas supply chain in the US, underscoring the commitment to transparency of the collected data, external review, deployment of multiple methodologies, and publication of results in peer-reviewed journals.

  4. A Crude Reality; Exploring the Interdependencies of Energy (Oil), the Macro-Economy, and National Security

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-04-11

    Policy (SWEEP) optimizing our own natural resources in the near term (oil, natural gas, coal, nuclear, wind, solar, hydro, geothermal and synthetics... geothermal and synthetics), and displaces the oil based economy with a long term energy transformation plan based on renewable energy, is vital to...climb and supply begins to diminish. Global energy demands will continue to rise as the developing economies of countries like Brazil, Russia, China

  5. North or East. Germany's crude oil and natural gas supply from Norway and Russia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Spies, M.

    2004-01-01

    This work examines the crude oil and natural gas trade from Norway and Russia to Germany. There is a considerable need for energy import in Germany because only a small part of the national consumption can be met with domestic productions. This applies especially to crude oil and natural gas. Norway and Russia are among the leading crude oil and natural gas producers and exporters in the world. The geographical vicinity of these significant demand and supply potentials leads to extensive energy based relations between Germany and Norway respectively Russia. The focus of this work is on the perception of and attitudes towards Norway and Russia as crude oil and natural gas suppliers for the domestic markets in Germany. Reporting from two leading German newspapers, Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung and Sueddeutsche Zeitung, are regarded to be a valid source for detecting these attitudes and perceptions. Relevant articles are analysed with content analysis and further multi- methodological approaches. For this reasons the work provides at the beginning full description of the Norwegian and Russian crude oil and natural gas sector as well as detailed information on the German energy markets and policy. It can be shown that differences in dealing with Norway and Russia in the articles exit. Accordingly, different perceptions and attitudes are detectable as well. This work shows where these differences can be found and examines their quality. It is argued that the reporting and the attitudes are not only based on economical facts but also on 'imagined space'. The need for impartial relations with both supplying countries is stressed. (orig.)

  6. Modeling Bottom Sediment Erosion Process by Swirling the Flow by Tangential Supply of Oil in the Tank

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nekrasov, V. O.

    2016-10-01

    The article carries out a statistical data processing of quantitative and territorial division of oil tanks operating in Tyumen region, intended for reception, storage and distribution of commercial oil through trunk pipelines. It describes the working principle of the new device of erosion and prevention of oil bottom sediment formation with tangential supply of oil pumped into reservoir. The most significant similarity criteria can be emphasized in modeling rotational flows exerting significant influence on the structure of the circulating flow of oil in tank when operation of the device described. The dependence of the distribution of the linear velocity of a point on the surface along the radius at the circular motion of the oil in the tank is characterized, and on the basis of this dependence, a formula of general kinetic energy of rotational motion of oil and asphalt-resin-paraffin deposits total volume in the oil reservoir is given.

  7. Panorama 2014 - The importance of underground storage in the security of European gas supplies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cornot-Gandolphe, Sylvie

    2013-12-01

    While European capacity for underground gas storage has increased by 16% over the last three years, levels of stock at the beginning of the 2013/2014 winter, in relation to capacity, are the lowest that have been seen since 2010; they represent only 84% of storage capacity. The suppliers of gas have no incentive to reserve storage capacity, for which the cost is considered too high in relation to the spread, currently very low, between the price of gas in winter and in summer. They also rely on sufficient gas supply thanks to other sources of flexibility available on the market: flexibility of production or imports, spot LNG purchases, purchases in the spot market... or even use of the storage capacities of neighbouring countries via European network interconnections. Yet, the 2013/2014 winter is beginning in a gas supply context in Europe that is more difficult: imports of LNG, which had already dropped sharply in 2012, have continued to contract, faced with increased competition from Asian buyers on the international LNG market. Gas imports from Norway are also declining following production limits in that country. Only Russia has strongly increased its exports to Europe in 2013. However, the dispute between Ukraine and Russia about the price of Russian gas delivered to Ukraine still raises the spectre of a threat to the European supply of Russian gas, nearly 60% of which transits via Ukraine. Under these circumstances, as demonstrated by the gas crises of 2006 and 2009 and the cold conditions of February 2012 and March/April 2013, storage is the most efficient means of securing the supply of gas providing, of course, that the storage sites are filled at the beginning of winter. (author)

  8. Subsidy modes, waste cooking oil and biofuel: Policy effectiveness and sustainable supply chains in China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, Huiming; Li, Lianshui; Zhou, Peng; Hou, Jianmin; Qiu, Yueming

    2014-01-01

    Many countries are concerned with the waste-to-energy for economic development and societal welfare. This paper constructs a dynamic game model that, for the first time compares the incentive effects of four common subsidy modes on waste cooking oil supply for biofuel refining and sales of waste cooking oil refined products. The model considers the impact of preferential tax treatment, a raw material subsidy, a sales subsidy and an investment subsidy on the profits of biofuel enterprises and waste cooking oil recyclers. Results indicate that common approaches adopted in developed economies such as raw material price subsidies and finished products sales subsidies increase the profits of both biofuel enterprises and recyclers. On the contrary, investment subsidies, which are relatively common in some regions of China, increase the profits of recyclers, while reducing revenues achieved by biofuel enterprises. To promote the supply chain, policy should give priority to raw material price subsidies and finished products sales subsidies, and for investment subsidies, however, the government should be cautious

  9. Energy demand and supply, energy policies, and energy security in the Republic of Korea

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Hoseok; Shin, Eui-soon; Chung, Woo-jin

    2011-01-01

    The Republic of Korea (ROK) has enjoyed rapid economic growth and development over the last 30 years. Rapid increases in energy use-especially petroleum, natural gas, and electricity, and especially in the industrial and transport sectors-have fueled the ROK's economic growth, but with limited fossil fuel resources of its own, the result has been that the ROK is almost entirely dependent on energy imports. The article that follows summarizes the recent trends in the ROK energy sector, including trends in energy demand and supply, and trends in economic, demographic, and other activities that underlie trends in energy use. The ROK has been experiencing drastic changes in its energy system, mainly induced by industrial, supply security, and environmental concerns, and energy policies in the ROK have evolved over the years to address such challenges through measures such as privatization of energy-sector activities, emphases on enhancing energy security through development of energy efficiency, nuclear power, and renewable energy, and a related focus on reducing greenhouse gas emissions. The assembly of a model for evaluating energy futures in the ROK (ROK2010 LEAP) is described, and results of several policy-based scenarios focused on different levels of nuclear energy utilization are described, and their impacts on of energy supply and demand in the ROK through the year 2030 are explored, along with their implications for national energy security and long-term policy plans. Nuclear power continues to hold a crucial position in the ROK's energy policy, but aggressive expansion of nuclear power alone, even if possible given post-Fukushima global concerns, will not be sufficient to attain the ROK's 'green economy' and greenhouse gas emissions reduction goals. - Research highlights: →Rapid industrialization caused ROK energy use to increase over 10-fold during 1970-2000, with dramatic structural changes. → Growth in energy use after 2000 slowed to under 5%/yr, and

  10. The green paper 'towards a European strategy for the security of energy supply'

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Laponche, B.; Tillerson, K.

    2001-01-01

    The Green Paper, 'Towards a European Strategy for the Security of Energy Supply' was adopted by the European Commission on the 20. of November, 2000 (COM(2000)769 final). At this occasion, the Commission launched a public debate on this strategic document. On the 21. of June 2001, a Public Hearing on Security of energy supply in Europe, on the basis of the Green Paper, was organised by the Committee on Industry, External Trade, Research and Energy of the European Parliament. Bernard Laponche was among the six experts participating to the Hearing and presented the following paper, prepared with Kenya Tillerson. This presentation is organised in three chapters: I - Comments on the Green Paper; II - Energy efficiency potentials; III - Conclusions and Recommendations. Chapter I shows that under the heading of the security of supply, the Green paper elaborates and proposes a global energy strategy taking into account environmental and internal market issues and constraints. This leads to recommendations for a common energy policy for Europe based, as first priority, on a demand policy, i.e. energy efficiency on the demand side. If the necessity of such a policy is clearly stated, the Green paper remains weak on the quantitative objectives, due to the lack of contrasted energy forecast scenarios, as well as on the means of a vigorous energy efficiency policy at European Level. The issue of energy efficiency potentials at European Union level is examined in Chapter II, in the light of the poor information which can be extracted from the energy scenarios presented by the European Commission in various publications. A comparison of energy consumption indicators in France and the European Union leads to a rough estimate of a potential for energy demand efficiency by 2020 of the order of 280 Mtoe on final energy consumption, for the European Union. Chapter III underlines the merits of the Green Paper which are a clear-sighted analysis and a well defined main recommendation

  11. Means of supply of extremely low-sulphur oil to the power plants of Stenungsund and Karlshamn

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1986-10-01

    The power plants in question are estimated to produce 10 TWh electric power per year and use about 2.4 Mtons of heavy fuel oil. This will imply a considerable increase of emission of acidifying sulphur oxides. The report discusses the cost of supplying low-sulphur fuel oils. The cost is compared with the cost of the installation of desulphurization of flue gas, oils or gasification

  12. Critical thinking: assessing the risks to the future security of supply of critical metals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gunn, Gus

    2015-04-01

    Increasing world population, the spread of prosperity across the globe and the demands of new technologies have led to a revival of concerns about the availability of raw materials needed by society. Despite scare stories about resource depletion, physical exhaustion of minerals is considered to be unlikely. However, we do need to know which materials might be of concern so that we can develop strategies to secure adequate supplies and to mitigate the effects of supply disruption. This requirement has led to renewed interest in criticality, a term that is generally used to refer to metals and minerals of high economic importance that have a relatively high likelihood of supply disruption. The European Union (EU) developed a quantitative methodology for the assessment of criticality which led to the definition of 14 raw materials as critical to the EU economy (EC, 2010). This has succeeded in raising awareness of potential supply issues and in helping to prioritise requirements for new policies and supporting research. The EU has recently assessed a larger number of candidate materials of which 20 are now identified as critical to the EU (EC, 2014). These include metals such as indium, mostly used in flat-screen displays, antimony for flame retardants and cobalt for rechargeable batteries, alloys and a host of other products. Although there is no consensus on the methodology for criticality assessments and broad analyses at this scale are inevitably imperfect, they can, nevertheless, provide early warning of supply problems. However, in order to develop more rigorous and dynamic assessments of future availability detailed analysis of the whole life-cycle of individual metals to identify specific problems and develop appropriate solutions is required. New policies, such as the Raw Materials Initiative (2008) and the European Innovation Partnership on Raw Materials (2013), have been developed by the European Commission (EC) and are aimed at securing sustainable

  13. Politics, markets and EU gas supply security. Case studies of the UK and Germany

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kopp, Sandu-Daniel

    2015-03-01

    Publication in the field of social sciences. Sandu-Daniel Kopp investigates whether carbon reduction targets are compatible with market-driven competition in gas (and power) industries, and whether security of supply is compatible with competitive markets. He examines the policy trade-offs which need to be made between the three different elements, and whether these policy judgements should be economically or politically based. The analysis shows the need for a complex set of politically determined options to protect (competitive) markets from price risks and emergency events and demonstrates that this has thus far failed the policy test. Overall, the author argues that the three major elements of EU energy policy are incompatible in important respects and thereby challenges much of the conventional wisdom of EU and Member State policies of the past decade.

  14. Politics, markets and EU gas supply security. Case studies of the UK and Germany

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kopp, Sandu-Daniel

    2015-01-01

    Publication in the field of social sciences. Sandu-Daniel Kopp investigates whether carbon reduction targets are compatible with market-driven competition in gas (and power) industries, and whether security of supply is compatible with competitive markets. He examines the policy trade-offs which need to be made between the three different elements, and whether these policy judgements should be economically or politically based. The analysis shows the need for a complex set of politically determined options to protect (competitive) markets from price risks and emergency events and demonstrates that this has thus far failed the policy test. Overall, the author argues that the three major elements of EU energy policy are incompatible in important respects and thereby challenges much of the conventional wisdom of EU and Member State policies of the past decade.

  15. Secure energy supply in 2025: Indonesia's need for an energy policy strategy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mujiyanto, Sugeng; Tiess, Günter

    2013-01-01

    Indonesia as an emerging country with one of the fastest growing economies requires sufficient supply with energy for national development. Domestic energy production cannot satisfy the domestic demand, and the deficiency necessitates growing imports. The present energy mix consists of 96% from non-renewable sources, i.e. fossil fuels, less than 4% from renewables. Government Regulation 5/2006 aims at increasing the proportion of renewable sources to 17%. Two scenarios for the energy situation in 2025 have been elaborated and are discussed. An overall energy policy strategy and regulatory framework covering non-renewable and renewable resources are crucial for securing energy demand. - Highlights: • Indonesia aims at 17% renewable energy in energy mix 2025. • Population growth exceeds increase of energy production. • Investment incentives for new technologies, exploration and efficient production are necessary. • Clear and comprehensive energy policy strategy and regulatory framework are crucial

  16. Location and allocation decision for supply chain network of Cajeput oil (Case in XYZ company)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mahardika, F. A.; Hisjam, M.; Widodo, B.; Kurniawan, B.

    2017-11-01

    Cajeput oil is a very promising business. And now, the fulfillment of Cajeput oil in Indonesia is still lacking. It's because the rate of production Cajeput leaves in Indonesia is still low. In Indonesia, XYZ company manages forests in 7 regions. XYZ currently are developing Cajeput oil business. XYZ is currently doing business productivity improvement of Cajeput by planting Cajeput trees in Location 3, Sragen. Besides the Cajeput trees planting program, XYZ plan to do the construction distillery Cajeput leaves. The purpose of the research in this paper is to minimize the total cost of the supply chain network of Cajeput oil in XYZ and to determine whether the construction of a Cajeput distillery should be done or not. This paper uses mixed integer linear programming to make matemathical models. To minimize the total cost, used IBM® ILOG®CPLEX software. From IBM® ILOG®CPLEX software. From the calculation ILOG®CPLEX IBM® software can be seen that the minimum total cost would be obtained if XYZ opened a new distillery with a capacity of 25000kg and a new factory with a capacity of 10000kg. Besides all the truck owned can be used entirely at optimal capacity. And the total cost from IBM® ILOG®CPLEX is IDR 113,406,250.

  17. Adapting electricity markets to decarbonisation and security of supply objectives: Toward a hybrid regime?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roques, Fabien; Finon, Dominique

    2017-01-01

    The policy objectives of decarbonisation of the electricity sector whilst maintaining security of supply have led to a new wave of market reforms in many jurisdictions which liberalised their industry. There is a wide range of models under this new hybrid regime which essentially combine the energy market with planning and long-term risk transfer arrangements. This paper takes an institutionalist approach in terms of modularity of the market design, and reviews the issues with the standard historical market model which led to the introduction of additional long term “modules”. We then study the interactions between the existing and new “modules” and identify ways in which the initial market modules can be improved to address inconsistencies with the new modules. We conclude by discussing the conditions under which the various changes in market architectures could converge toward a hybrid regime structured around a “two step competition”, with a “competition for the market” via the auctioning of long-term contracts to support investment, followed by “competition in the market” for short term system optimisation via the energy market. - Highlights: • The policy objectives of decarbonisation of the electricity sector whilst maintaining security of supply have led to a new wave of markets reforms. • Emergence of a hybrid regime combining the energy market with planning and long-term risk transfer arrangements. • Wide diversity of models in hybrid regimes, but some common fundamental features. • Replacement of the coordination function of energy prices for investment by some form of planning followed by long-term contracts. • Discussion of the conditions for possible convergence toward a “two step competition” regime.

  18. Opening of energy markets: consequences on the missions of public utility and of security of supplies in the domain of electric power and gas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2001-01-01

    This conference was jointly organized by the International Energy Agency (IEA) and the French ministry of economy, finances, and industry (general direction of energy and raw materials, DGEMP). It was organized in 6 sessions dealing with: 1 - the public utility in the domain of energy: definition of the public utility missions, experience feedback about liberalized markets, public utility obligation and pricing regulation; 2 - the new US energy policy and the lessons learnt from the California crisis; 3 - the security of electric power supplies: concepts of security of supplies, opinion of operators, security of power supplies versus liberalization and investments; 4 - security of gas supplies: markets liberalization and investments, long-term contracts and security of supplies; 5 - debate: how to integrate the objectives of public utility and of security of supplies in a competing market; 6 - conclusions. This document brings together the available talks and transparencies presented at the conference. (J.S.)

  19. Imported Oil and U.S. National Security

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-01-01

    Facing the Hard Truths About Energy: A Comprehensive View to 2030 of Global Oil and Natural Gas, Washington, D.C., July 2007. As of February 14, 2009...example, if consumers could switch easily from commuting by car to mass transit or telecommuting when fuel costs rise, the effects on the U.S. economy...levels by 2011. Higher gas prices have apparently hit the Belarusian economy hard . The Lukashenko government has been looking for loans to cover

  20. Documentation of the Oil and Gas Supply Module (OGSM). Appendix, Model developers report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1995-01-01

    The Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting (OIAF) is required to provide complete model documentation to meet the EIA Model Acceptance Standards. The Documentation for the Oil and Gas Supply Module (OGSM) provides a complete description of the OGSM methodology, structure, and relation to other modules in the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). This Model Developers Report (MDR) serves as an appendix to the methodology documentation. This report provides an overview of the model and an assessment of the sensitivity of OGSM results to changes in input data or parameters

  1. Experience in the transfer of oil sludge from Kemaman supply base (KSB) Terengganu

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bustami Abu; Ibrahim Martibi; Mazlan Mohamad; Nik Marzukee

    2005-01-01

    EPMI and MINT had signed a contract for transferring 2400 drums containing oil sludge waste from Kemaman Supply Base (KSB), Terengganu to MINT, Bangi with a cost of RM 2.5 million. The work was done in two stages; the first stage involved 800 drums and the second stage involved 1600 drums. The preparation and implementation work involved application to obtain approval from the Atomic Energy Licensing Board (AELB) and Department of Environment (DOE) as the transportation has to comply with transport regulations for radioactive and toxic waste, appointing transport company, providing information and briefing to supervisors / workers regarding radiation as well as other safety aspects during transfer of waste. (Author)

  2. Oil and Security in Nigeria: The Niger Delta Crisis | Owolabi | Africa ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This paper examines oil and security in Nigeria, with special reference to the crisis-ravaged Niger Delta. Its focus on the Niger Delta and its festering crisis stems from that region's critical importance to Nigeria. As the nation's treasure base, the Niger Delta provides over 80 percent of government revenues, 95 percent of ...

  3. Europe's thirst for Russian gas increases fears over security of supply

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shepherd, John [nuclear 24, London (United Kingdom)

    2014-10-15

    A new report from Russian Gazprom indicates that Europe is becoming increasingly reliant on gas from Russia. In 2013 the volume of Gazprom Group's gas sales to countries beyond the Commonwealth of Independent States amounted to 174.3 billion cubic metres, which accounts for one-third of the total gas consumption in Europe. Europe might normally welcome the increasing free-flow of gas to the continent, but the fact that this rising dependency on Russia comes at a time of even greater political tensions should be a wake-up call to policymakers. Policymakers should focus more on what is practical than what is politically correct. If one nation wants to tilt at windmills and abandon the security of energy supply offered by modern, safe and technological solutions of the future, such as baseload nuclear, it does not mean everyone has to follow suit. Europe's collective political leadership would do well to remember that you do not cast out or effectively demonise tried and tested solutions to keeping nations safe, warm, productive and economically vibrant at a time when very real threats to energy supply loom on the horizon.

  4. Robust optimization on sustainable biodiesel supply chain produced from waste cooking oil under price uncertainty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yong; Jiang, Yunjian

    2017-02-01

    Waste cooking oil (WCO)-for-biodiesel conversion is regarded as the "waste-to-wealthy" industry. This paper addresses the design of a WCO-for-biodiesel supply chain at both strategic and tactical levels. The supply chain of this problem is studied, which is based on a typical mode of the waste collection (from restaurants' kitchen) and conversion in the cities. The supply chain comprises three stakeholders: WCO supplier, integrated bio-refinery and demand zone. Three key problems should be addressed for the optimal design of the supply chain: (1) the number, sizes and locations of bio-refinery; (2) the sites and amount of WCO collected; (3) the transportation plans of WCO and biodiesel. A robust mixed integer linear model with muti-objective (economic, environmental and social objectives) is proposed for these problems. Finally, a large-scale practical case study is adopted based on Suzhou, a city in the east of China, to verify the proposed models. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Secure ASIC Architecture for Optimized Utilization of a Trusted Supply Chain for Common Architecture A and D Applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-03-01

    Secure ASIC Architecture for Optimized Utilization of a Trusted Supply Chain for Common Architecture A&D Applications Ezra Hall, Ray Eberhard...use applications. Furthermore, a product roadmap must be comprehended as part of this platform, offering A&D programs a solution to their...existing solutions for adoption to occur. Additionally, a well-developed roadmap to future secure SoCs, leveraging the value add of future advanced

  6. The outlook for crude oil supply and demand in Australia and its energy policy implications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1991-08-01

    Australia's oil reserves and production have contributed significantly to national economic prosperity and growth since the first large scale discoveries in Bass Strait in the 1960s. As a finite, non-renewable resource, the reserves ultimately must decline. In 1988 the forecast was that Australia's oil production would begin to decline in the mid 1990s and then rapidly tail off by the late 1990s. With this in mind, AMEC Ministers agreed in 1988 that a Working Group should review the energy policy implications of the forecast decline in the production of petroleum. The Working Group's findings are presented in this booklet. Chapter 2 examines the outlook for demand for petroleum products in Australia until 2005. This Chapter is based on current Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics (ABARE) forecasts as well as savings in fuel demand that are potentially available from fuel efficiency and fuel switching measures. Chapter 3, which includes BMR's recently revised petroleum production forecasts, looks at the outlook for crude oil and condensate production, also to 2005. Chapter 4 discusses the range of government initiatives already in place to foster the efficient exploration and production of petroleum in Australia. This Chapter also examines the outlook for Australian alternative liquid fuels. Chapter 5, which is based on analysis by ABARE, broadly examines the possible macroeconomic implications of declining oil production for Australia while Chapter 6 examines the issue of energy security and in particular its relationship with oil self sufficiency. Finally, Chapter 7 identifies some energy policy considerations and recommendations arising out of the Working Group's analysis. 7 tabs, 3 figs

  7. Commentary and contributions to green paper (alphabetical sort. Towards a European strategy for the security supply)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2005-01-01

    This document provides the answers formulated by the nuclear industry operators to the thirteen following questions: 1. Can the European Union accept an increase in its dependence on external energy sources without undermining its security of supply and European competitiveness? If this were the case, for which sources of energy would it be appropriate to contemplate a framework policy for imports? In this case, is it appropriate to favour an economic approach, in terms of energy cost, or a geopolitical approach in terms of the risk of disruption? 2. Does not Europe increasingly integrated internal market, where decisions taken in one country have an impact on others, call for a consistent and coordinated policy at Community level? What should such a policy consist of and where should competition rules fit in? 3. Do tax and State aid policies in the energy sector impair competitiveness in the European Union or not? Given the failure of attempts to harmonize indirect taxation, should the whole issue of energy taxation not be re-examined in view, in particular, of the energy and environmental targets? 4. In the framework of an ongoing dialogue with producer countries, what should supply and investment promotion agreements contain? Given the importance of a partnership with Russia in particular, how can stable quantities, prices and investment be guaranteed? 5. Should more reserves be stockpiled and should other energy sources be included, such as gas or coal? Should the Community take on a greater role in stock management and, if so, what should the objectives and modalities be? Does the risk of physical disruption to energy supply justify more onerous measures for access to resources? 6. How can we ensure the development and better operation of energy transport networks in the European Union and neighbouring countries that enable the internal market to function properly and guarantee security of supply? 7. The development of some renewable energy sources calls for

  8. Commentary and contributions to green paper (alphabetical sort. Towards a European strategy for the security supply)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2005-07-01

    This document provides the answers formulated by the nuclear industry operators to the thirteen following questions: 1. Can the European Union accept an increase in its dependence on external energy sources without undermining its security of supply and European competitiveness? If this were the case, for which sources of energy would it be appropriate to contemplate a framework policy for imports? In this case, is it appropriate to favour an economic approach, in terms of energy cost, or a geopolitical approach in terms of the risk of disruption? 2. Does not Europe increasingly integrated internal market, where decisions taken in one country have an impact on others, call for a consistent and coordinated policy at Community level? What should such a policy consist of and where should competition rules fit in? 3. Do tax and State aid policies in the energy sector impair competitiveness in the European Union or not? Given the failure of attempts to harmonize indirect taxation, should the whole issue of energy taxation not be re-examined in view, in particular, of the energy and environmental targets? 4. In the framework of an ongoing dialogue with producer countries, what should supply and investment promotion agreements contain? Given the importance of a partnership with Russia in particular, how can stable quantities, prices and investment be guaranteed? 5. Should more reserves be stockpiled and should other energy sources be included, such as gas or coal? Should the Community take on a greater role in stock management and, if so, what should the objectives and modalities be? Does the risk of physical disruption to energy supply justify more onerous measures for access to resources? 6. How can we ensure the development and better operation of energy transport networks in the European Union and neighbouring countries that enable the internal market to function properly and guarantee security of supply? 7. The development of some renewable energy sources calls for

  9. Factors influencing the choice of performance measures for the oil and gas supply chain – exploratory study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Menhat, Masha; Yusuf, Y.

    2018-04-01

    The current value of the oil price per barrel has severely impacted the oil and gas industry around the world. This has worsened the situation due to the fact that it has long been the backbone of the country through the energy supply, employability and also its role as the major economic contributor. Due to multiple external factors that affect this industry such as crude oil availability, oil price fluctuation, high transportation cost, as well as exposure to high uncertainties, it is sensible for the supply chain practitioner to shift their focus in managing their resources and capabilities. To maximise the potential of supply chain activities in improving overall company performance, it is important to pay extra attention on their performance management. This includes the design of meaningful performance measurement framework to assess organisational performance. This study will explore the influencing factors in choosing performance measures for the oil and gas supply chain. Five in-depth interviews were conducted with supply chain experts within the industry. Eight influencing factors have been identified through the interviews.

  10. Sustainable supply chain design for waste cooking oil-based biodiesel in bogor using dynamic system approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Syahdan, A. D.; Arkeman, Y.; Wijaya, H.

    2017-05-01

    Biodiesel is one of the alternative fuels that are environmentally friendly. Besides palm oil, biodiesel can also be produced from waste cooking oil. Since 2007, the government of Bogor has been utilizing waste cooking oil into biodiesel for use as Transpakuan bus’ fuel. However, in practice, the amount of waste cooking oil supplied is never sufficient the needs of fuel of 30 units Transpakuan bus. The main objective of this research is to analyze the availability of waste cooking oil that will be converted into biodiesel within the next ten years as well as providing policy advice to support the program. The method used is a dynamic system that is followed by simulation of multiple scenarios that have been defined. The system is divided into three subsystems, namely supply subsystem, demand subsystem, and production subsystem. The results showed that the current system is not able to guarantee the sustainability of the supply chain of waste cooking oil as a raw material of biodiesel. From some of the scenarios tested can be concluded that biodiesel needs would increase in line with the trend of the use of environmentally friendly fuels. It takes a new system and a new policy relating to the biodiesel supply chain. Policy suggestions that can be proposed from this research is to increase supplier participation, objectify the program of converting angkot into Transpakuan bus, and support the development of biodiesel industry.

  11. Simulating security of supply effects of the Nabucco and South Stream projects for the European natural gas market

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dieckhoener, Caroline

    2010-12-15

    Due to the increasing European import dependency, significant additional natural gas volumes will be required. In addition to the Nord Stream pipeline, the Nabucco and South Stream pipeline are projects planned for the next decade to provide further gas supplies to the European market. As one of the European Union's energy policies' foci is security of supply, the question can be raised if and how these projects contribute to this objective not only in terms of diversification but also in case of supply disruptions such as occurred in 2009 during the Russia-Ukraine gas crisis. This paper discusses the impact of these two major gas import pipeline projects on the South-Eastern Europe gas supply and analyzes their effects on gas flows and marginal cost prices in general and in case of gas supply disruptions via Ukraine in a model-based analysis with the European natural gas infrastructure and dispatch model TIGER. (orig.)

  12. The Supply of Medical Radioisotopes. Final Report of the Third Mandate of the High-level Group on the Security of Supply of Medical Radioisotopes (2013-2015)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Charlton, Kevin; )

    2016-07-01

    At the request of its member countries, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) became involved in global efforts to ensure a secure supply of molybdenum-99 ( 99 Mo)/technetium-99m ( 99m Tc). In April 2009, the High-level Group on the Security of Supply of Medical Radioisotopes (HLG-MR) was created and received an initial, two-year mandate from the NEA Steering Committee for Nuclear Energy to examine the causes of supply shortages of 99 Mo/ 99m Tc and develop a policy approach to address them. In its first mandate, the HLG-MR conducted a comprehensive economic study of the 99 Mo/ 99m Tc supply chain, which identified the key areas of vulnerability and major issues to be addressed. The HLG-MR released a policy approach, including six principles (Appendix 1) and supporting recommendations to help resolve the issues in the 99 Mo/ 99m Tc market. In the second mandate (2011-2013), the HLG-MR worked to encourage the implementation of the six policy principles and promoted an industry transition away from the use of highly enriched uranium (HEU) targets for 99 Mo production. Projects were undertaken by the NEA that resulted in the publication of documents and reports to assist in implementing the HLG-MR policy approach. The second mandate showed that, while commendable progress had occurred in many areas, there were still major issues in the 99 Mo/ 99m Tc market, with some continued government subsidisation, insufficient ORC and inadequate reimbursement for 99 mTc. Potential future periods of supply shortage were identified, particularly concerning the likely loss of significant capacity around 2016. In the third mandate, the HLG-MR continued its efforts to help ensure the global security of supply of 99 Mo/ 99m Tc through implementation of the six policy principles. The NEA undertook a further self-assessment review of the 99 Mo/ 99m Tc supply chain, focusing again on progress with implementing FCR and paid ORC and

  13. SAInt – A novel quasi-dynamic model for assessing security of supply in coupled gas and electricity transmission networks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pambour, Kwabena Addo; Cakir Erdener, Burcin; Bolado-Lavin, Ricardo; Dijkema, Gerhard P.J.

    2017-01-01

    The integration of renewable energy sources into existing electric power systems is connected with an increased interdependence between natural gas and electricity transmission networks. To analyse this interdependence and its impact on security of supply, we developed a novel quasi-dynamic

  14. Marrying project deliverability models and labour supply for the oil sands

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Albright, R.; Whitaker, C.A. [Fluor Canada Ltd., Calgary, AB (Canada)

    2005-07-01

    Alberta is predicting a labour shortage to support the construction and operation of planned oil sands projects in the region. This paper provided a framework of options available to stakeholders in addressing resource constraints from the viewpoint of Fluor Canada Ltd. A background of previous projects was presented, which highlighted various strategies used in the management of human resources issues. Strategies included local hiring through the Alberta-based trade unions; recruitment from other Canadian provinces; a higher ratio of apprentices; extremely high utilization crew schedules; and extended use of overtime. It was noted that these strategies resulted in some cost overruns and lower productivity levels. A productivity analysis was used to determine and resolve productivity issues. Various regulations in Alberta were discussed in relation to training programs and skilled immigrants. Various international training facilities operated by Fluor were reviewed. A factor model of human resources issues was presented. Summaries of supply chain management, systems, and technologies were presented. Issues concerning prefabrication, pre-assembly, modularization and offsite fabrication were discussed. It was concluded that by taking advantage of lessons learned in previous projects a solid foundation is set from which to plan for future requirements. Successful project execution is achieved by taking advantage of current technology; enhancing modular construction standards; and using supply chain management techniques and enhanced labour supply solutions. tabs., figs.

  15. Opening of Offshore Oil Business in Mexico and Associated Framework to Cope with Potential Maritime Security Threats

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adriana Ávila-Zúáiga-Nordfjeld

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available After 75 years of State oil monopoly, Mexico performed the first business oil round in 2015 involving the private sector. This auction-round offered 14 oil exploration fields located on the continental shelf to private companies. The development and exploitation of these hydrocarbon fields faces significant challenges regarding security. The economic loss for theft of hydrocarbons through illegal connections to pipelines is estimated to 973 million, 125 thousand U.S. dollar, only for the year of 2014. While productive research has been made, it has mainly focused on transportation systems and basically, pipelines. The development and establishment of policies prioritizing maritime security and protection of critical offshore infrastructure against theft of hydrocarbons, drugs organizations and terror attacks needs to be included in the national agenda to improve maritime security and mitigate potential security threats at sea, including damage to the marine environment. This could increase the trust of investors and stakeholders and would contribute to the faster development of new exploration and production fields. While the International Ship and Port Facility Security Code (ISPS Code is the cornerstone for the construction of the port?s security program and establishes the requirements of the Port Facility Security Plan (PFSP, including oil port facilities, it has not been fully implemented in several important Mexican ports. It is concluded that some important ports lack many of the core security processes, procedures and controls that should be included in any PFSP. This article briefly reviews the situation of the oil industry from a security perspective and discusses key elements of maritime security; addressing the necessity of the inclusion of maritime security and protection of critical oil infrastructure offshore in the national agenda that would provide for future research directions in the maritime security domain and contribute to

  16. Design and performance of a clean and economic power supply targeting energy independence and operative security

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mushtaha, Mohammed

    2012-07-01

    Stand alone wind-diesel power systems address the major issues for the supply of remotely located consumers or the provision of enhanced energy independence. The specific configuration considered here comprises a prior wind turbine driven induction generator and a supplementary synchronous generator driven by a combustion engine, the latter caring for frequency control and reactive power balance. An accumulator-bank and a hydrogen storage path consisting of an electrolyzer and a hydrogen storage tank are added as short-term and long-term storage devices - respectively - in order to adjust volatile wind generation and varying load demand. The hydrogen re-conversion to electricity is achieved by design of the drive of the synchronous generator as a dual-fuel engine, fed with stored hydrogen primarily, and with diesel oil in case of the rare event of hydrogen storage emptiness. An elementary waste heat recovery from engine cooling water and from exhaust gases makes the system even more energy efficient and environment friendly. For proper sizing of the particular system components under minimization of the life cycle cost - which are composed of the initial installation cost, the replacement cost, the operation and maintenance cost as well as the remaining fuel cost - the meta-heuristic computational method of Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) was applied. The crucial task of intelligently managing the energy storage strategy depending on their actual states of charge and the current excess power under a given load profile was solved by a fuzzy system and a subsequent time scheduler, the latter providing definite set-point steps for definite periods of time to the electrolyzer in order to achieve smooth and conservative operation. The concrete design and performance of the proposed system structure is shown with the two relevant application examples of independent electricity supply of the main hospital in Gaza-Strip, Palestine, and a remotely located dairy farm. For

  17. Oil prices without OPEC: a walk on the supply-side

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Roumasset, J.; Isaak, D.; Fesharaki, F.

    1983-07-01

    The rapid increases of oil prices during the 1970s are commonly regarded as prima facie evidence of monopoly power. This paper applies the theory of exhaustible resources to estimate the equilibrium oil prices (also known as efficiency prices) which would have prevailed in the absence of monopoly profits. The theory incorporates an extraction cost function wherein cost is a rising function of the cumulative amount of oil extracted. The model is used to simulate efficiency price paths under a variety of assumptions about extraction costs and real interest rates which are representative of perceptions at various times in recent history. These simulations show that the price increases of 1974 and 1979 to 1980 can be explained as a response to supply-side changes, especially changes in the perceived cost of the backstop technology and the fall in real interest rates in the mid and late 1970s. Thus, while efficiency prices were high in the 1970s, relative to extraction costs, it is plausible that average monopoly profits were negligible. This situation appears to have changed in the early 1980s due to the return of real interest rates to their historic levels. In early 1982, even spot prices, already below official prices, were substantially above the estimated efficiency or competitive price level. On the other hand, efficiency prices remain far above extraction costs. Thus, even if the price-setting power of OPEC were eroded by competition, the real price of oil would not fall below the level established in 1974. 18 references, 1 figure, 2 tables.

  18. Vital signs: oil supplies improving but natural gas tight enough to keep prices high

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lunan, D.

    2000-01-01

    Canada's 1999 year-end oil reserves were boosted by 2.1 million barrels by the launch of new oil sands mining projects near Fort McMurray and revisions in two existing operations, offsetting a decline of 3.7 per cent in remaining conventional reserves. Total oil reserves at year end stood at some 11.9 billion barrels, up from 9.8 billion barrels a year earlier. Conventional crude reserves dropped to 4.37 billion barrels. Despite the decline, the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP) were encouraged by a 70 per cent replacement rate, on production of 441 million barrels of oil, despite low activity resulting from soft prices in early part of 1999. Production from offshore Newfoundland sites amounted to 38.6 million barrels; remaining reserves in the Hibernia and Terra Nova field are estimated at 868 million barrels. Meanwhile, natural gas reserves slipped by about a trillion cubic feet to about 61 trillion cubic feet, reflecting an 83 per cent replacement rate which, however, represented an improvement from 76 per cent in 1998. Reserves replacement in 2000 is expected to improve over 1999 due to improved prices resulting in increased activity in 2000 which is expected to continue into 2001. Despite improvements in replacement, consumers have much to worry about as far as further consumer price increases are concerned. The situation can be traced back to the summer 2000 storage injection period when supplies normally stored for use in the winter were sold instead, to take advantage of high prices. The injection for storage was reduced due largely to continued strong demand from the US electric power generating sector. This situation will continue, barring a dramatic softening of the US economy

  19. The long-term supply/demand trend of world energy and the current oil situation in the Asia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Okamoto, Hiroyuki

    1996-01-01

    Total world primary energy consumption excluding the FSU increased by 2.9% in 1995, which is somewhat above the 10 year average rate of 2.4%. This reflected strong economic growth in most parts of the world. The increase in demand confirmed the recovery of the link between the economic growth and consumption of primary energy, which broke down in the period of oil crises. Oil demand in the Asian Emerging Market Economies has continued to be very strong. Oil demand has doubled in a decade in this region and is now one sixth of world consumption. Malaysia was the fastest growing oil market in the world in 1995 at 15.5%. In volume terms, S. Korea grew the most in the world by 170,000 b/d, closely followed by China and India. Because of the fast growing oil demand, many energy economists expect a tight supply situation in the Asian oil market in the early 21st Century. However, recent technological developments would be able to supply crude oil appropriate for an increase in oil demand. (author)

  20. Supplying synthetic crude oil from Canadian oil sands: A comparative study of the costs and CO2 emissions of mining and in-situ recovery

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Méjean, Aurélie; Hope, Chris

    2013-01-01

    High crude oil prices and the eventual decline of conventional oil production raise the issue of alternative fuels such as non-conventional oil. The paper describes a simple probabilistic model of the costs of synthetic crude oil produced from Canadian oil sands. Synthetic crude oil is obtained by upgrading bitumen that is first produced through mining or in-situ recovery techniques. This forward-looking analysis quantifies the effects of learning and production constraints on the costs of supplying synthetic crude oil. The sensitivity analysis shows that before 2035, the most influential parameters are the learning parameter in the case of in-situ bitumen and the depletion parameter in the case of mined bitumen. After 2035, depletion dominates in both cases. The results show that the social cost of CO 2 has a large impact on the total costs of synthetic crude oil, in particular in the case of synthetic crude oil from in-situ bitumen, due to the carbon intensity of the recovery techniques: taking into account the social cost of CO 2 adds more than half to the cost of producing synthetic crude oil from mined bitumen in 2050 (mean value), while the cost of producing synthetic crude oil from in-situ bitumen more than doubles. - Highlights: • We model the cost of Canadian synthetic crude oil (SCO) using Monte-Carlo techniques. • We reveal the uncertainty associated with each input parameter. • We quantify the effect of learning, depletion and CO 2 using sensitivity analyses. • Accounting for the social cost of CO 2 doubles the cost of SCO from in-situ bitumen. • CO 2 pricing could have a large effect on the economics of the oil sands

  1. Regional growth and energy supply: Is there an energy security issue?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Roop, J.M.; Freund, K.A.; Godoy-Kain, P.; Gu, A.Y.; Johnson, A.K.; Paananen, O.H.; Woodruff, M.G.

    1996-12-01

    This study examines how the growth of the developing world might affect energy markets in the future. Based on recent growth trends, world energy demand could reasonably be expected to grow from about 350 Exajoules (EJ: 1.0E18=0.95 Quad) to nearly 1025 EJ by the year 2020, nearly 3x current consumption estimates. Introduction of more energy-efficient technologies could reduce this growth by about 17% to 830 EJ. But one cannot rely exclusively on current trends to forecast future energy demand. The growth of the developing world will interact with supply to affect prices, which in turn will mitigate the growth of demand, and growth rates of energy use will be much more modes. Under the Business as Usual scenario, energy demand will grow to 835 EJ by 2020, and this could be reduced a further 15% to 714 EJ through the adoption of more energy efficient technologies. Fuel prices based on model results are analyzed. Energy security implications of rapid growth in the developing world are considered and found to be of likely little significance.

  2. Transient Processes in Electric Power Supply System for Oil Terminal with Own Gas-Turbine Power Station

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. M. Hаshimov

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper contains results of the investigations concerning influence of symmetrical and non-symmetrical short circuits at main power network on electric power supply system of a huge oil terminal which is powered by own gas-turbine power station. Calculations have been made in accordance with the IEC and IEEЕ requirements. Estimations for voltage level and distribution of short circuit current in the electric power supply system of the Sangachal oil terminal being operated in parallel with the AzerEnerji grid are presented in the paper

  3. Maritime supply chain security: navigating through a sea of compliance requirements

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Maspero, EL

    2008-11-01

    Full Text Available MTSA Maritime Transportation Security Act RFID Radio Frequency Identification SAFE Security and Accountability For Every port SOLAS Safety Of Life At Sea SST Smart and Secure Tradelane UNCTAD United Nations Conference on Trade and Development... for increased security within maritime shipping and so the SOLAS (the Safety of Lives at Sea) Convention Chapter 11 was amended to provide for the inclusion of the International Ships and Port Facilities Security Code (ISPS Code), which was internationally...

  4. A mixed integer linear programming model for operational planning of a biodiesel supply chain network from used cooking oil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jonrinaldi, Hadiguna, Rika Ampuh; Salastino, Rades

    2017-11-01

    Environmental consciousness has paid many attention nowadays. It is not only about how to recycle, remanufacture or reuse used end products but it is also how to optimize the operations of the reverse system. A previous research has proposed a design of reverse supply chain of biodiesel network from used cooking oil. However, the research focused on the design of the supply chain strategy not the operations of the supply chain. It only decided how to design the structure of the supply chain in the next few years, and the process of each stage will be conducted in the supply chain system in general. The supply chain system has not considered operational policies to be conducted by the companies in the supply chain. Companies need a policy for each stage of the supply chain operations to be conducted so as to produce the optimal supply chain system, including how to use all the resources that have been designed in order to achieve the objectives of the supply chain system. Therefore, this paper proposes a model to optimize the operational planning of a biodiesel supply chain network from used cooking oil. A mixed integer linear programming is developed to model the operational planning of biodiesel supply chain in order to minimize the total operational cost of the supply chain. Based on the implementation of the model developed, the total operational cost of the biodiesel supply chain incurred by the system is less than the total operational cost of supply chain based on the previous research during seven days of operational planning about amount of 2,743,470.00 or 0.186%. Production costs contributed to 74.6 % of total operational cost and the cost of purchasing the used cooking oil contributed to 24.1 % of total operational cost. So, the system should pay more attention to these two aspects as changes in the value of these aspects will cause significant effects to the change in the total operational cost of the supply chain.

  5. Securing the Safety of Nuclear Power Plants against Oil Spill Accidents at Sea

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hyun, Seung Gyu; Choi, Ho Seon; Kim, Sang Yun

    2008-01-01

    As of 2008, 20 nuclear power plants are under operation and six plants are under construction in Korea. NPPs account for approximately 38% of Korea's electric power production; however, it is expected that the share of power produced by NPPs will be further increased to reduce the level of CO 2 emissions, taking into account the concern over global warming. All of NPPs in Korea are located on the coast to facilitate the supply of cooling water sources. Thus, tar and other floating matters from vessels following oil spill accidents at sea may affect intake systems, and consequently interrupt the supply of cooling water. This study will review cases of response measures taken by NPPs against large-scale crude oil spill accidents that had occurred off the coast of Korea, including such accidents as the Sea Prince (July 23, 1995) and the Hebei Sprit(December 7, 2007), and relevant regulatory requirements at home and abroad

  6. Self-Sufficiency versus Security: How Trade Protectionism Challenges the Sustainability of the Food Supply in Russia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vasilii Erokhin

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Food security is increasingly influenced by multilateral trade systems and foreign trade policies implemented by national governments. Many of them are now concerned about the sustainability of food supply and the vulnerability of domestic food markets to price volatility, and seek to support domestic producers and protect themselves from increasing food imports. Such restrictions improve food self-sufficiency, but decrease food security. It is important to understand any changes that may have occurred in the food consumption pattern due to trade protectionism and to observe any nutritional implications of these changes. This paper employs the rational food security (RFS assessment approach, which differentiates sources of food supply on the domestic market, assesses the influence of agricultural and trade frameworks on food consumption patterns, and complies consumption with the appropriate food intake threshold. In the case of Russia, the study demonstrates that the conventional consumption approach to self-sufficiency (FSCA underestimates the food insecurity level by not accounting for nutrition factors. In addition, the gap between the FSCA and the RFS increases in times of protectionist trade policy and decreases when the agricultural and trade policy framework turns to liberalization. The paper concludes that trade protectionism challenges the sustainability of food supply by decreasing food availability and quality of food products, causes dietary changes, and threatens the food security of the country.

  7. Russian Oil and Natural Gas: Strategic Culture and Security Implications of European Dependence

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Phillips, William M

    2007-01-01

    .... The third section investigates the importance of revenues that Russia receives from consumption of oil and natural gas exports to Europe on their Gross National Product and economic growth for the future. By understanding Russia's strategic culture and the interdependence of European demand and Russian supply, conclusions are made that determine the threat, risk, and circumstances that Russia will deny energy resources to European countries.

  8. Effects of oxygen supply on the biodegradation rate in oil hydrocarbons contaminated soil

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zawierucha, I [Institute of Chemistry and Environment Protection, Jan Dlugosz University of Czestochowa, Waszyngtona 4/8, 42-200 Czestochowa (Poland); Malina, G, E-mail: iwona_zawierucha@o2.pl [Faculty of Hydrogeology and Geology Engineering, Department of Geology, Geophysics and Environment Protection, AGH University of Science and Technology, Mickiewicza 30, 30-059 Cracow (Poland)

    2011-04-01

    Respirometry studies using the 10-chamber Micro-Oxymax respirometer (Columbus, Ohio) were conducted to determine the effect of biostimulation (by diverse ways of O{sub 2} supply) on enhancing biodegradation in soils contaminated with oil hydrocarbons. Soil was collected from a former military airport in Kluczewo, Poland. Oxygen was supplied by means of aerated water, aqueous solutions of H{sub 2}O{sub 2} and KMnO{sub 4}. The biodegradation was evaluated on the basis of O{sub 2} uptake and CO{sub 2} production. The O{sub 2} consumption and CO{sub 2} production rates during hydrocarbons biodegradation were estimated from the slopes of cumulative curve linear regressions. The pertinent intrinsic and enhanced biodegradation rates were calculated on the basis of mass balance equation and O{sub 2} uptake and CO{sub 2} production rates. The biodegradation rates of 5-7 times higher as compared to a control were observed when the aqueous solution of KMnO{sub 4} in concentration of 20 g L{sup -1} was applied. Permanganate is known to readily oxidize alkene carbon - carbon double bonds; so it can be successfully applied in remediation technology for soils contaminated with oil hydrocarbons. While hydrocarbons are not completely mineralized by permanganate oxidation reactions, their structure is altered by polar functional groups providing vast improvements in aqueous solubility and availability for biodegradation. The 3% aqueous solution of H{sub 2}O{sub 2} caused significant improvement of the biodegradation rates as compared to a control (on average about 260%). Aerobic biodegradation of hydrocarbons can benefit from the presence of oxygen released during H{sub 2}O{sub 2} decomposition. Adding of aerated water resulted in an increase of biodegradation rates (about 114 - 229%) as compared to a control. The aerated water can both be the source of oxygen for microorganisms and determine the transport of substrate to bacteria cells.

  9. Proceedings of the Canadian Institute conference on maximizing oil sands growth : improving transportation logistics, labour supply and pipeline availability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2005-01-01

    This conference focused on the development of a transportation infrastructure to accommodate oil sands growth, with particular reference to building a pipeline infrastructure to meet the delivery and supply requirements of oil sands producers. The need for transmission system upgrades and additions to meet the electric power requirements of the oil sands industry was also discussed. The transportation options and new proposed pipeline construction projects that will alleviate the current transportation challenges in the oil sands region were identified. These include the implementation of new infrastructure strategies based on current pipeline availability, Kyoto requirements and downstream market demands. The impact of labour shortages on the oil sands industry was reviewed along with solutions to prevent and overcome these shortages. The conference featured 15 presentations, of which 3 have been catalogued separately for inclusion in this database. tabs., figs

  10. Western Canadian crude oil supply and markets 2002-2010 : Executive summary

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2003-08-01

    The forecast of crude supply developed by the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP) indicates that additional pipeline capacity from western Canada to existing new markets will be required. A crude market study was undertaken to investigate and assess the potential development of the North American crude markets along with expected western Canadian crude supply growth. The results revealed that additional crude export capacity from Alberta will be required by 2006 or 2007. An analysis of three export pipeline scenarios was carried out: (1) Hardisty to Chicago, with a further extension to Cushing, Oklahoma, (2) Edmonton to the west coast of British Columbia, Prince Rupert, and (3) Hardisty to California. The most attractive aggregate benefits to heavy crude producers would result from a western export pipeline to British Columbia or California. A superior alternative is a pipeline to a deepwater tanker terminal on the coast of British Columbia. The Chicago pipeline option would become more attractive if Midwestern refiners were to expand their capacity to process heavy oil. Declining netbacks associated with sustained growth that is introduced into the market place are reflected in all scenarios over the forecast period until 2010. 1 tab., 23 figs

  11. Electrical Power Supply to Offshore Oil Installations by High Voltage Direct Current Transmission

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Myhre, Joergen Chr.

    2001-07-01

    This study was initiated to investigate if it could be feasible to supply offshore oil installations in the North Sea with electrical power from land. A prestudy of alternative converter topologies indicated that the most promising solution would be to investigate a conventional system with reduced synchronous compensator rating. The study starts with a summary of the state of power supply to offshore installations today, and a short review of classical HVDC transmission. It goes on to analyse how a passive network without sources influences the inverter. The transmission, with its current controlled rectifier and large inductance, is simulated as a current source. Under these circumstances the analysis shows that the network frequency has to adapt in order to keep the active and reactive power balance until the controllers are able to react. The concept of firing angle for a thyristor is limited in a system with variable frequency, the actual control parameter is the firing delay time. Sensitivity analysis showed some astonishing consequences. The frequency rises both by an increase in the active and in the reactive load. The voltage falls by an increase in the active load, but rises by an increase in the inductive load. Two different control principles for the system of inverter, synchronous compensator and load are defined. The first takes the reference for the firing delay time from the fundamental voltage at the point of common coupling. The second takes the reference for the firing delay time from the simulated EMF of the synchronous compensator. Of these, the second is the more stable and should be chosen as the basis for a possible control system. Two simulation tools are applied. The first is a quasi-phasor model running on Matlab with Simulink. The other is a time domain model in KREAN. The time domain model is primarily used for the verification of the quasi-phasor model, and shows that quasi-phasors is still a valuable tool for making a quick analysis

  12. Speaker's presentations. Energy supply security; Recueil des interventions. Securite d'approvisionnement energetique

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pierret, Ch

    2000-07-01

    This document is a collection of most of the papers used by the speakers of the European Seminar on Energy Supply Security organised in Paris (at the French Ministry of Economy, Finance and Industry) on 24 November 2000 by the General Direction of Energy and Raw Materials, in co-operation with the European Commission and the French Planning Office. About 250 attendees were present, including a lot of high level Civil Servants from the 15 European State members, and their questions have allowed to create a rich debate. It took place five days before the publication, on 29 November 2000, by the European Commission, of the Green Paper 'Towards a European Strategy for the Security of Energy Supply'. This French initiative, which took place within the framework of the European Presidency of the European Union, during the second half-year 2000. will bring a first impetus to the brainstorming launched by the Commission. (author)

  13. You Outsource the Service but Not the Risk: Supply Chain Risk Management for the Cyber Security of Safety Critical Systems

    OpenAIRE

    Johnson, Chris W.

    2016-01-01

    Companies increasingly form interdependent relationships between contractors and sub-contractors that extend\\ud across national borders and legal jurisdictions. In consequence, supply chain risk management (SCRM) is an\\ud increasing concern for the cyber security of safety-critical systems. The following pages argue that outsourcing\\ud undermines SCRM by eroding technical expertise, which companies need to select and audit their suppliers. They\\ud are still held accountable when the failure o...

  14. Long-term security in energy supplies - the contribution of coal; Dlugofalowe bezpieczenstwo w dostawach energii - udzial wegla

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schiffer, W. [RWE Power AG, Essen (Germany)

    2004-07-01

    The paper presents the case for coal as an important pillar in a wide and balanced mix of energy sources. Both domestic lignite and hard coal can be made available at relatively low cost. With coal powering power plants it is possible to achieve all energy policy goals of economic efficiency, security of supply and environmental compatibility. The paper includes much information on the global coal trade, particularly seaborne trade. 4 refs., 26 figs.

  15. Dynamic impact of the structure of the supply chain of perishable foods on logistics performance and food security

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Javier Arturo Orjuela Castro

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: Understanding how the structure affects logistical performance and food security is critical in the supply chains of perishable foods (PFSC. This research proposes a system dynamics model to analyze the effects of structures: lean, agile, flexible, responsive and resilient, in the overall performance and of each agent of the PFSC. Design/methodology/approach: Using a system dynamics model and design of experiments it is studied how the different structures and their combination, affect the behavior of inventory, transportation, responsiveness, efficiency, availability and quality-safety of the fresh fruits supply chain and each echelon. Findings: The studies of supply chains have been done for each structure in an independent way; investigations are scarce in supply chains of perishable foods. The structures modeled in this research do not show the better performance in all the metrics of the chain, neither in all agents for each structure. The above implies the presence of trade-offs. Research limitations/implications: The results show the need to investigate mixed structures with the FPSC´s own characteristics; the model can be applied in other supply chains of perishable foods. Practical implications: Management by combining structures in the FFSC, improves logistics performance and contributes to food security. Social implications: The agents of the FFSC can apply the structures found in this study, to improve their logistics performance and the food security. Originality/value: The dynamics of individual and combined structures were identified, which constitutes a contribution to the discussion in the literature of such problems for FFSC. The model includes six echelons: farmers, wholesalers, agro-industry, third-party logistics operators and retailers. The dynamic contemplates deterioration rate to model perishability and others losses.

  16. A framework for the analysis of the security of supply of utilising carbon dioxide as a chemical feedstock.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fraga, Eric S; Ng, Melvin

    2015-01-01

    Recent developments in catalysts have enhanced the potential for the utilisation of carbon dioxide as a chemical feedstock. Using the appropriate energy efficient catalyst enables a range of chemical pathways leading to desirable products. In doing so, CO2 provides an economically and environmentally beneficial source of C1 feedstock, while improving the issues relating to security of supply that are associated with fossil-based feedstocks. However, the dependence on catalysts brings other supply chains into consideration, supply chains that may also have security of supply issues. The choice of chemical pathways for specific products will therefore entail an assessment not only of economic factors but also the security of supply issues for the catalysts. This is a multi-criteria decision making problem. In this paper, we present a modified 4A framework based on the framework suggested by the Asian Pacific Energy Research centre for macro-economic applications. The 4A methodology is named after the criteria used to compare alternatives: availability, acceptability, applicability and affordability. We have adapted this framework for the consideration of alternative chemical reaction processes using a micro-economic outlook. Data from a number of sources were collected and used to quantify each of the 4A criteria. A graphical representation of the assessments is used to support the decision maker in comparing alternatives. The framework not only allows for the comparison of processes but also highlights current limitations in the CCU processes. The framework presented can be used by a variety of stakeholders, including regulators, investors, and process industries, with the aim of identifying promising routes within a broader multi-criteria decision making process.

  17. Dynamic impact of the structure of the supply chain of perishable foods on logistics performance and food security

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Castro, Javier Arturo Orjuela; Jaimes, Wilson Adarme

    2017-07-01

    Understanding how the structure affects logistical performance and food security is critical in the supply chains of perishable foods (PFSC). This research proposes a system dynamics model to analyze the effects of structures: lean, agile, flexible, responsive and resilient, in the overall performance and of each agent of the PFSC. Design/methodology/approach: Using a system dynamics model and design of experiments it is studied how the different structures and their combination, affect the behavior of inventory, transportation, responsiveness, efficiency, availability and quality-safety of the fresh fruits supply chain and each echelon. Findings: The studies of supply chains have been done for each structure in an independent way; investigations are scarce in supply chains of perishable foods. The structures modeled in this research do not show the better performance in all the metrics of the chain, neither in all agents for each structure. The above implies the presence of trade-offs. Research limitations/implications: The results show the need to investigate mixed structures with the FPSC´s own characteristics; the model can be applied in other supply chains of perishable foods. Practical implications: Management by combining structures in the FFSC, improves logistics performance and contributes to food security. Social implications: The agents of the FFSC can apply the structures found in this study, to improve their logistics performance and the food security. Originality/value: The dynamics of individual and combined structures were identified, which constitutes a contribution to the discussion in the literature of such problems for FFSC. The model includes six echelons: farmers, wholesalers, agro-industry, third-party logistics operators and retailers. The dynamic contemplates deterioration rate to model perishability and others losses.

  18. Dynamic impact of the structure of the supply chain of perishable foods on logistics performance and food security

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Castro, Javier Arturo Orjuela; Jaimes, Wilson Adarme

    2017-01-01

    Understanding how the structure affects logistical performance and food security is critical in the supply chains of perishable foods (PFSC). This research proposes a system dynamics model to analyze the effects of structures: lean, agile, flexible, responsive and resilient, in the overall performance and of each agent of the PFSC. Design/methodology/approach: Using a system dynamics model and design of experiments it is studied how the different structures and their combination, affect the behavior of inventory, transportation, responsiveness, efficiency, availability and quality-safety of the fresh fruits supply chain and each echelon. Findings: The studies of supply chains have been done for each structure in an independent way; investigations are scarce in supply chains of perishable foods. The structures modeled in this research do not show the better performance in all the metrics of the chain, neither in all agents for each structure. The above implies the presence of trade-offs. Research limitations/implications: The results show the need to investigate mixed structures with the FPSC´s own characteristics; the model can be applied in other supply chains of perishable foods. Practical implications: Management by combining structures in the FFSC, improves logistics performance and contributes to food security. Social implications: The agents of the FFSC can apply the structures found in this study, to improve their logistics performance and the food security. Originality/value: The dynamics of individual and combined structures were identified, which constitutes a contribution to the discussion in the literature of such problems for FFSC. The model includes six echelons: farmers, wholesalers, agro-industry, third-party logistics operators and retailers. The dynamic contemplates deterioration rate to model perishability and others losses.

  19. The Model of Gas Supply Capacity Simulation In Regional Energy Security Framework: Policy Studies PT. X Cirebon Area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nuryadin; Ronny Rahman Nitibaskara, Tb; Herdiansyah, Herdis; Sari, Ravita

    2017-10-01

    The needs of energy are increasing every year. The unavailability of energy will cause economic losses and weaken energy security. To overcome the availability of gas supply in the future, planning are cruacially needed. Therefore, it is necessary to approach the system, so that the process of gas distribution is running properly. In this research, system dynamic method will be used to measure how much supply capacity planning is needed until 2050, with parameters of demand in industrial, household and commercial sectors. From the model obtained PT.X Cirebon area in 2031 was not able to meet the needs of gas customers in the Cirebon region, as well as with Businnes as usual scenario, the ratio of gas fulfillment only until 2027. The implementation of the national energy policy that is the use of NRE as government intervention in the model is produced up to 2035 PT.X Cirebon area is still able to supply the gas needs of its customers.

  20. Security of supply on the electricity market. Report of a working group

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2000-06-01

    The shift from a regulated electricity market to open competitive electricity markets has been fast in Finland. Finland together with Sweden, Norway and partly also Denmark form a common market area where the internal trade in electricity has markedly increased. Partly as a result of this, the share of net import in our electricity consumption has increased. The low price level on the Nordic market has contributed to an increased import of electricity to Finland. The generally clearly increased production of hydroelectric power together with the functioning principles of the Nordic electricity exchange have lead to a situation where the competitive position of indigenous electricity, especially that from condensing power, has become more difficult. In Finland, several condensing power plants have, accordingly, been closed and the trend seems to continue. Similar development has taken place also in Sweden and Denmark. In the current market situation, the decisions upon investment in the construction of new power plants have further been postponed until later. Because the economic interest of the market players in maintaining slow reserve capacity has been reduced in the current market situation, there is concern whether the market is able to guarantee the security of electricity supply in all circumstances with varying demand taking also account of possible long-term malfunction of power plants or disturbances in the import of electricity or gas. Sweden and Norway are besides Finland net importers of electricity in normal hydrological years. Of the Nordic countries, only Denmark is able to balance the Nordic demand for electricity in case of a poor hydrological year. The price level on the electricity market is expected to remain low still for years. Building new capacity during the coming few years seems unlikely in all Nordic countries. The increased consumption of electricity as a result of economic growth and the reduction in capacity will however lead to a

  1. Food Supply Security and Import Substitution as the Key Strategic Objectives of the Modern Agricultural Policy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anatoly Ivanovich Altukhov

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available A crucially new social- and economic situation has shaped up by now in the rural areas and agricultural sphere; in its many instances such situation does not fit in the national agricultural policy in effect called upon to be a long-term instrument for economic adjustment of the agro-food market and state support of the agricultural sphere, most significantly, its foundation — the farming sector. Ensuring of food supply security by import substitution in the age of the national farm product markets globalization is possible in the macro-economic conditions promoting the development of the agricultural sector. The main reason that retards this sector development is inequitable cross-sector exchange at sacrifice of the agricultural industry. The article sets forward and approbates the author’s method of simple assessment procedure of how the price cross-sector relations and state financial support (in the form of subsidies of the agricultural enterprises influence their profitability generation. Further to the assessment, the following conclusions have been made: — in view of the tangible contribution of the agricultural sector to the country economy, this sector is self-reliant for its own development, i.e. the state is reasonably in a position to increase expenses for eliminating negative consequences of inequitable crosssector exchange; — the amount of expenses for state financial support is supposed to enable the agricultural commodity producers to generate profitability to the level that can stimulate the farm workers’ labour efficiency and build up a system of affordable credit facilities for the objects of techno-engineering modernization necessary to produce competitive products. — the issue of improving the competitiveness of agricultural production should be addressed in the first place at the federal level. Among the essential factors to increase the competitiveness of specific types of domestic food products and

  2. Glass vs. Plastic: Life Cycle Assessment of Extra-Virgin Olive Oil Bottles across Global Supply Chains

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Riccardo Accorsi

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The environmental impacts of global food supply chains are growing with the need for their measurement and management. This paper explores the operations of a global supply chain for extra-virgin olive oil (EVOO according to a life cycle assessment (LCA methodology. The LCA assessment methodology is applied to determine the environmental impact categories associated with the bottled EVOO life cycle, focusing on packaging decisions. The proposed analysis identifies the greatest environmental stressors of the EVOO supply chain, thereby supporting strategic and operative decisions toward more efficient and environmentally-friendly operations management and packaging choices. This paper quantifies the environmental categories of the impacts of global warming potential, ozone layer depletion, non-renewable energy use, acidification, eutrophication and photochemical smog, for the observed EVOO supply chain, given alternative packaging configurations, i.e., a glass bottle vs. a plastic bottle. The observed system includes the supply of EVOO, the EVOO processing and bottling, the supply of packaging, the distribution of final products to customers, the end-of-life (EOL treatments regarding the management, recycling and the disposal of waste across a global supply chain. The findings from the LCA highlight the potential of PET bottles in reducing the environmental impact of EVOO supply chains and identifies hotspots of discussion for policy-makers, EVOO producers and consumers.

  3. Oil and Gas Security. Emergency Response of IEA Countries - Norway 2011 update

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2011-08-12

    This publication provides a detailed look at the specific systems in Norway for responding to an oil supply crisis. Initially prepared as a chapter in the overarching publication on the emergency response mechanisms in various IEA member countries, the IEA has started a new cycle of reviews which now includes reviewing gas emergency policies. Rather than waiting for the completion of the current review cycle to renew the full larger publication, the IEA will be making available updates to the country chapters as these become available following the country's review.

  4. Oil and Gas Security. Emergency Response of IEA Countries - Poland 2011 update

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2011-08-12

    This publication provides a detailed look at the specific systems in Poland for responding to an oil supply crisis. Initially prepared as a chapter in the overarching publication on the emergency response mechanisms in various IEA member countries, the IEA has started a new cycle of reviews which now includes reviewing gas emergency policies. Rather than waiting for the completion of the current review cycle to renew the full larger publication, the IEA will be making available updates to the country chapters as these become available following the country's review.

  5. Oil and Gas Security. Emergency Response of IEA Countries - Italy 2010 update

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2010-07-01

    This publication provides a detailed look at the specific systems in Italy for responding to an oil supply crisis. Initially prepared as a chapter in the overarching publication on the emergency response mechanisms in various IEA member countries, the IEA has started a new cycle of reviews which now includes reviewing gas emergency policies. Rather than waiting for the completion of the current review cycle to renew the full larger publication, the IEA will be making available updates to the country chapters as these become available following the country's review.

  6. Oil and Gas Security. Emergency Response of IEA Countries - Czech Republic 2010 update

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2010-07-01

    This publication provides a detailed look at the specific systems in Czech Republic for responding to an oil supply crisis. Initially prepared as a chapter in the overarching publication on the emergency response mechanisms in various IEA member countries, the IEA has started a new cycle of reviews which now includes reviewing gas emergency policies. Rather than waiting for the completion of the current review cycle to renew the full larger publication, the IEA will be making available updates to the country chapters as these become available following the country's review.

  7. Oil and Gas Security. Emergency Response of IEA Countries - Slovak Republic 2011 update

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2011-08-12

    This publication provides a detailed look at the specific systems in Slovak Republic for responding to an oil supply crisis. Initially prepared as a chapter in the overarching publication on the emergency response mechanisms in various IEA member countries, the IEA has started a new cycle of reviews which now includes reviewing gas emergency policies. Rather than waiting for the completion of the current review cycle to renew the full larger publication, the IEA will be making available updates to the country chapters as these become available following the country's review.

  8. Oil and Gas Security. Emergency Response of IEA Countries - Spain 2011 update

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2011-08-12

    This publication provides a detailed look at the specific systems in Spain for responding to an oil supply crisis. Initially prepared as a chapter in the overarching publication on the emergency response mechanisms in various IEA member countries, the IEA has started a new cycle of reviews which now includes reviewing gas emergency policies. Rather than waiting for the completion of the current review cycle to renew the full larger publication, the IEA will be making available updates to the country chapters as these become available following the country's review.

  9. Oil and Gas Security. Emergency Response of IEA Countries - Denmark 2011 update

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2011-08-12

    This publication provides a detailed look at the specific systems in Denmark for responding to an oil supply crisis. Initially prepared as a chapter in the overarching publication on the emergency response mechanisms in various IEA member countries, the IEA has started a new cycle of reviews which now includes reviewing gas emergency policies. Rather than waiting for the completion of the current review cycle to renew the full larger publication, the IEA will be making available updates to the country chapters as these become available following the country's review.

  10. Oil and Gas Security. Emergency Response of IEA Countries - United Kingdom 2010 update

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2010-07-01

    This publication provides a detailed look at the specific systems in United Kingdom for responding to an oil supply crisis. Initially prepared as a chapter in the overarching publication on the emergency response mechanisms in various IEA member countries, the IEA has started a new cycle of reviews which now includes reviewing gas emergency policies. Rather than waiting for the completion of the current review cycle to renew the full larger publication, the IEA will be making available updates to the country chapters as these become available following the country's review.

  11. Oil and Gas Security. Emergency Response of IEA Countries - New Zealand 2010 update

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2010-07-01

    This publication provides a detailed look at the specific systems in New Zealand for responding to an oil supply crisis. Initially prepared as a chapter in the overarching publication on the emergency response mechanisms in various IEA member countries, the IEA has started a new cycle of reviews which now includes reviewing gas emergency policies. Rather than waiting for the completion of the current review cycle to renew the full larger publication, the IEA will be making available updates to the country chapters as these become available following the country's review.

  12. Oil and Gas Security. Emergency Response of IEA Countries - Belgium 2010 update

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2011-08-12

    This publication provides a detailed look at the specific systems in Belgium for responding to an oil supply crisis. Initially prepared as a chapter in the overarching publication on the emergency response mechanisms in various IEA member countries, the IEA has started a new cycle of reviews which now includes reviewing gas emergency policies. Rather than waiting for the completion of the current review cycle to renew the full larger publication, the IEA will be making available updates to the country chapters as these become available following the country's review.

  13. Oil and Gas Security. Emergency Response of IEA Countries - Portugal 2011 update

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2011-08-12

    This publication provides a detailed look at the specific systems in Portugal for responding to an oil supply crisis. Initially prepared as a chapter in the overarching publication on the emergency response mechanisms in various IEA member countries, the IEA has started a new cycle of reviews which now includes reviewing gas emergency policies. Rather than waiting for the completion of the current review cycle to renew the full larger publication, the IEA will be making available updates to the country chapters as these become available following the country's review.

  14. Oil and Gas Security. Emergency Response of IEA Countries - Canada 2010 update

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2010-07-01

    This publication provides a detailed look at the specific systems in Canada for responding to an oil supply crisis. Initially prepared as a chapter in the overarching publication on the emergency response mechanisms in various IEA member countries, the IEA has started a new cycle of reviews which now includes reviewing gas emergency policies. Rather than waiting for the completion of the current review cycle to renew the full larger publication, the IEA will be making available updates to the country chapters as these become available following the country's review.

  15. Oil and Gas Security. Emergency Response of IEA Countries - Ireland 2011 update

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2011-08-12

    This publication provides a detailed look at the specific systems in Ireland for responding to an oil supply crisis. Initially prepared as a chapter in the overarching publication on the emergency response mechanisms in various IEA member countries, the IEA has started a new cycle of reviews which now includes reviewing gas emergency policies. Rather than waiting for the completion of the current review cycle to renew the full larger publication, the IEA will be making available updates to the country chapters as these become available following the country's review.

  16. Oil and Gas Security. Emergency Response of IEA Countries - Luxembourg 2010 update

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2010-07-01

    This publication provides a detailed look at the specific systems in Luxembourg for responding to an oil supply crisis. Initially prepared as a chapter in the overarching publication on the emergency response mechanisms in various IEA member countries, the IEA has started a new cycle of reviews which now includes reviewing gas emergency policies. Rather than waiting for the completion of the current review cycle to renew the full larger publication, the IEA will be making available updates to the country chapters as these become available following the country's review.

  17. Economics of international energy security policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Paik, I.K.

    1992-01-01

    Because there is no inexpensive substitute for crude oil and petroleum products at the present time, an oil supply disruption inevitably leads to higher oil prices and economic losses. Wealth transfer to oil producing nations, reduced output increased unemployment and inflation. For these reasons, major oil-consuming countries currently have in place various oil emergency response measures to protect themselves from adverse economic consequences of oil supply disruptions: stockpiling emergency oil reserves to augment supplies, if necessary, in an emergency; and lowering oil demand through non-price mechanisms. The main purpose of this paper is to show that while, supply enhancement and demand reduction could have the same effect on oil prices in the event of an oil supply shortfall, they may have significantly different effects on the economies. Section I discusses the principal oil emergency response measures of the members of the International Energy Agency (IEA) -- emergency oil stockpiles and demand restraint -- and their policies for implementing the measures. Section II describes the analytical method used to perform comparative economic analysis of releasing emergency stocks and restraining demand in an oil emergency. Section III presents quantitative results of the analysis, and Section IV, conclusions of the analytical results and their energy security policy implications

  18. Secure Ubiquitous Sensor Network based on Elliptic Curve MenezesQu Vanstoneas Status Data Supply of EnvironmentinDisaster Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ismed Jauhar

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Along with the many environmental changes, it enables a disaster either natural or man-made objects. One of the efforts made to prevent disasters from happening is to make a system that is able to provide information about the status of the environment that is around. Many developments in the sensor system makes it possible to load a system that will supply real-time on the status of environmental conditions with a good security system. This study created a supply system status data of environmental conditions, especially on bridges by using Ubiquitous Sensor Network. Sensor used to detect vibrations are using an accelerometer. Supply of data between sensors and servers using ZigBee communication protocol wherein the data communication will be done using the Elliptic Curve Integrated security mechanisms Encryption Scheme and on the use of Elliptic Curve key aggrement Menezes-Qu-Vanstone. Test results show the limitation of distance for communication is as far as 55 meters, with the computation time for encryption and decryption with 97 and 42 seconds extra time for key exchange is done at the beginning of communication . Keywords: Ubiquitous Sensor Network, Accelerometer, ZigBee,Elliptic Curve Menezes-Qu-Vanstone

  19. Energy security of French armies. The oil support in the context of transition

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kaeser, Paul

    2016-03-01

    Ever since its inception on the eve of World War One, the concept of securing fuel supply has consistently proven its vitality to military operations. In France, this mission is handled by the Service des Essences des Armees (SEA) since 1945. By controlling the chain of fuel supply, the SEA has been able to serve as a key organization in supporting French armed forces integration within NATO as well as their operations overseas. However, the SEA is now facing new challenges due to both external hazards (both structural and contextual) and internal vulnerabilities which combine into a systemic 'energy risk' that needs to be addressed. In order to do so in the near future, French armed forces will have to fully embrace the challenges of energy transition, so as to turn internationally recognized concepts such as 'Green Defense' into operational reality. (author)

  20. Supply Chain Security. Tools, Trends, and Techniques : Toyota and Honda cases

    OpenAIRE

    Klimova, Nadezda; Akimova, Anna

    2011-01-01

      Supply chain management has experienced great changes within the last fifty years. Inevitably, many companies entered the global market with the prime intention to achieve their defined goals. In comparison with the local markets, the global environment requires more efforts and changes in the supply chain operation in order to remain viable in business. Several business models are introduced for achieving the success in the market, suggested by the following researchers: Liker, Choi, Ronal...

  1. Oil development in China: Current status and future trends

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ma Linwei; Fu Feng; Li Zheng; Liu Pei

    2012-01-01

    The future of oil has become an important topic of the discussion of energy policy in China. This paper attempts to present a full picture of the current status and future trends of China’s oil development through system analysis. First, we map a Sankey diagram of China’s oil flow to reveal the physical pattern of China’s oil supply and consumption. Then, we present the historical and ongoing trends of China’s oil flow from key aspects such as oil demand, oil resource availability, technology improvement, and policy adjustment. Based on these understandings, we design three scenarios of China’s oil demand in 2030, and analyze policy implications for oil saving, automotive energy development, and energy security. From the analysis, we draw some conclusions for policy decisions, such as to control the total oil consumption to avoid energy security risks, to enhance oil saving in all sectors with road transportation as the emphasis, and to increase the investment on oil production and refining to secure oil supply and reduce emissions. - Highlights: ► A Sankey Diagram to reveal the physical pattern of China’s oil supply and consumption. ► Present the ongoing trends of China’s oil development. ► Discuss important policy issues such as oil saving, energy security, and emissions reduction.

  2. Security of supply, energy spillage control and peaking options within a 100% renewable electricity system for New Zealand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mason, I.G.; Page, S.C.; Williamson, A.G.

    2013-01-01

    In this paper, issues of security of supply, energy spillage control, and peaking options, within a fully renewable electricity system, are addressed. We show that a generation mix comprising 49% hydro, 23% wind, 13% geothermal, 14% pumped hydro energy storage peaking plant, and 1% biomass-fuelled generation on an installed capacity basis, was capable of ensuring security of supply over an historic 6-year period, which included the driest hydrological year on record in New Zealand since 1931. Hydro spillage was minimised, or eliminated, by curtailing a proportion of geothermal generation. Wind spillage was substantially reduced by utilising surplus generation for peaking purposes, resulting in up to 99.8% utilisation of wind energy. Peaking requirements were satisfied using 1550 MW of pumped hydro energy storage generation, with a capacity factor of 0.76% and an upper reservoir storage equivalent to 8% of existing hydro storage capacity. It is proposed that alternative peaking options, including biomass-fuelled gas turbines and demand-side measures, should be considered. As a transitional policy, the use of fossil-gas–fuelled gas turbines for peaking would result in a 99.8% renewable system on an energy basis. Further research into whether a market-based system is capable of delivering such a renewable electricity system is suggested. - Highlights: • A 100% renewable electricity system was modelled over a 6-year period. • Security of supply was demonstrated, including for the driest year since 1931. • Stored energy spillage was controlled by using flexible base-load generation. • Wind energy utilisation of 99.8% was obtained. • Transitional use of fossil gas for peaking resulted in a 99.8% renewable system

  3. Crude oil price dynamics: A study on effects of market expectation and strategic supply on price movements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jin, Xin

    Recent years have seen dramatic fluctuations in crude oil prices. This dissertation attempts to better understand price behavior. The first chapter studies the behavior of crude oil spot and futures prices. Oil prices, particularly spot and short-term futures prices, appear to have switched from I(0) to I(1) in early 2000s. To better understand this apparent change in persistence, a factor model of oil prices is proposed, where the prices are decomposed into long-term and short-term components. The change in the persistence behavior can be explained by changes in the relative volatility of the underlying components. Fitting the model to weekly data on WTI prices, the volatility of the persistent shocks increased substantially relative to other shocks. In addition, the risk premiums in futures prices have changed their signs and become more volatile. The estimated net marginal convenience yield using the model also shows changes in its behavior. These observations suggest that a dramatic fundamental change occurred in the period from 2002 to 2004 in the dynamics of the crude oil market. The second chapter explores the short-run price-inventory dynamics in the presence of different shocks. Classical competitive storage model states that inventory decision considers both current and future market condition, and thus interacts with spot and expected future spot prices. We study competitive storage holding in an equilibrium framework, focusing on the dynamic response of price and inventory to different shocks. We show that news shock generates response profile different from traditional contemporaneous shocks in price and inventory. The model is applied to world crude oil market, where the market expectation is estimated to experience a sharp change in early 2000s, together with a persisting constrained supply relative to demand. The expectation change has limited effect on crude oil spot price though. The world oil market structure has been studied extensively but no

  4. Chances for a long-term securing of the raw material supply to the FRG. Pt. 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1975-09-01

    The Federal Republic of Germany is almost completely dependent on raw material imports. Growing raw material consumption and an imminent increase in supply uncertainties will require intensified research and development work in the field of raw material safeguarding. Initial approaches to possible technical solutions are being indicated in connection with four raw materials (aluminium, copper, phosphate and carbon carriers). The material balances of these raw materials are shown and the technical and economic interrelations illustrated in the light of world-wide trends. It is being demonstrated that two essential objectives are to be pursued for securing raw material supplies: 1) extension of the raw material basis for primary and secondary raw materials, 2) improvement of raw material utilization in all sectors of economy. To provide a solution for the wide spectrum of tasks it will be necessary to establish adequate analytical methods and procedures. (orig.) [de

  5. Mining and oil. Oil shale's contribution to future oil supply; Bergbau und Oel. Der Beitrag des Oelschiefers zur Oelversorgung

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Linden, Eike von der [Linden Advisory, Dreieich (Germany)

    2012-05-15

    Crude oil contributes in Germany and globally approximately one third to the consumption of primary energies and actually is and in the foreseeable future will be the most important energy source. Recently shale oil as an unconventional oil has gained attention in public discussions. Depending on temperatures oil shale contains either already matured fluid shale oil or immature waxy kerogen. For determination of kerogen containing oil shale and shale oil common definitions for fluid hydrocarbons will be presented. Fluid hydrocarbons (molecular chains > C{sub 5}H{sub 12}) originate from animal substance which had been settled millions of years in sediments on sea- or lakebeds under anaerobic conditions. High pressure and high temperatures effect conversion to hydrocarbons. With sufficient permeability the liquid hydrocarbons migrate from the sediment as the source rock and get assembled in porous rocks under the cover of an impermeable rock strata, in so called entrapment structures. In case there is no impermeable rock strate the hydrocarbons will diffuse into the atmosphere. The hydrocarbons in entrapment structures are called conventional oil and are extracted by drilling wells. The extractable oil as part of the oil in place depends on the viscosity of the oil, the permeability of the host rock and applied exploitation methods which can affect pressure, viscosity and permeability. The exploitation achieves 30 to 50% of the oil in place. When the source rock consisting of strata hundreds of meters thick is not sufficiently permeable the matured hydrocarbons remain at its place of origination. These hydrocarbons are called shale oil and belong to the unconventional oil resources. For exploitation of shale oil by wells the source rock must be treated by intensive energy input, amongst others, by fracking which creates artificial permeability and by pressure which affects migration of the hydrocarbons to the well. The exploitation methods for shale oil do not

  6. An empirical analysis of the impacts of taxes and royalties on the supply of conventional crude oil in Alberta

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Amoah, B.

    1998-01-01

    The economic impact of taxes, royalties and government fiscal policy tools on conventional crude oil supply in Alberta was examined. A dynamic economic model of Alberta's conventional petroleum industry was developed and used to evaluate the quantitative impacts of government fiscal policies on exploration and extraction of conventional crude oil in the province. It was determined that taxes and royalties can shorten the life of the industry, reduce activity level, reduce ultimate recovery of conventional crude oil, render more of the established reserves sub-economic and create social welfare loss. It was also revealed that compared to provincial corporate income tax and crown royalties, federal corporate income tax has a larger adverse effect on the performance of the industry in terms of creating higher dead-weight loss and shortening the life of the industry

  7. Revenue management for foodstuff production to secure domestic supply in Indonesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hisyam, Ibnu

    2017-06-01

    This paper describes the application of revenue management in government services to ensure sufficient domestic supply of food in Indonesia. The use of this approach means that the government runs a specific effort to radically be able to solve the core problem. The resources for domestic food production are owned by more than 26 million families of farmers and more than 4 thousands agricultural companies. To achieve the expected quantity of foodstuff supplies, a special effort needs to take into account the profit for producers in allocating the resources at an appropriate level. With revenue management, the price of foodstuff to ensure adequate domestic supply to a certain level of productivity can be known. In this context, the price may be reduced if there is an increase in productivity. For this purpose, the supply curve and the demand-supply equilibrium of foodstuff have been modeled and specific government programs to increase productivity were formulated. One important finding here is that the macroeconomic policy of the government can be integrated to a microeconomic policy of foodstuff producers for one or more certain objectives.

  8. Coal and Oil: The Dark Monarchs of Global Energy: Understanding Supply and Extraction Patterns and their Importance for Future Production

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoeoek, Mikael

    2010-01-01

    from only 6 countries. Some of them, such as the USA show signs of increasing maturity and exhaustion of the recoverable amounts. However, there is a greater uncertainty about the recoverable reserves and coal production may yield a global maximum somewhere between 2030 and 2060. This analysis shows that the global production peaks of both oil and coal can be expected comparatively soon. This has significant consequences for the global energy supply and society, economy and environment. The results of this thesis indicate that these challenges should not be taken lightly

  9. Three protocols for securing the data pipeline of the international supply chain

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pruksasri, P.; Van den Berg, J.; Hofman, W.

    2012-01-01

    In order to make the international supply chain system highly efficient in worldwide transportation of goods, its business processes should be supported by high quality information systems that, “24x7”, provide the right data, at the right time, at the right place, to the right person. To do so, the

  10. Security of energy supply under the laws of the European Union / European Community; Energieversorgungssicherheit im Recht der Europaeischen Union, Europaeischen Gemeinschaft

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Proefrock, M.C.

    2007-07-01

    Security of supply is defined as the availability and reliability of energy supply at acceptable prices. By security of energy supply we mean a globally large supply of reliable, affordable, clean energy. By virtue of its nature security of supply in the energy sector primarily requires making provisions for the future through exploration, innovation, research, diversification and investments in technology. Energy politics takes place in a tension field defined by the goals of economic efficiency, sustainability and security of supply. In the past there have been repeated shifts within this triad of goals. The task for a rational energy policy is to reconciliate these goals in a meaningful way. European energy policy is understood to comprise all sovereign measures taken by the European Union in the energy sector, in particular measures that impact on the supply and demand for energy resources. Energy law serves, or should serve, to bring energy policy to realisation and therefore presupposes the existence of the latter. Energy policy means the figuration of an economy's energy sector in such a manner that the present and future demand of the economic region is covered.

  11. European Union and oil

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Paillard, Christophe Alexandre

    2004-01-01

    In a context of oil price increase, problems about a Russian oil company (Loukos), and uncertainties in the Middle-East, the possibility of a new oil shock is a threat for Europe, and raises the issue of a true European energy policy which would encompass, not only grid development, environmental issues or market regulation issues, but also strategic issues related to energy supply security. This article proposes an overview of the European policy: first steps for a future European energy and oil policy in the green paper of the European Commission published in November 2000, issues of pollution and safety for hydrocarbon maritime transport. The article then examines the possibility of a third oil shock due to a crisis in the Middle East, and discusses whether European must have strategic stocks to face an outage of oil supplies

  12. Book Review: America’s Blind Spot: Chávez, Oil and US Security by Andrés Cala and Michael Economides

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Boscan, Luis

    2014-01-01

    Review of: America’s Blind Spot: Chávez, Oil and US Security. Andrés Cala and Michael Economides. Continuum Books. 2012.......Review of: America’s Blind Spot: Chávez, Oil and US Security. Andrés Cala and Michael Economides. Continuum Books. 2012....

  13. Development of a Simulation Framework for Analyzing Security of Supply in Integrated Gas and Electric Power Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kwabena Addo Pambour

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Gas and power networks are tightly coupled and interact with each other due to physically interconnected facilities. In an integrated gas and power network, a contingency observed in one system may cause iterative cascading failures, resulting in network wide disruptions. Therefore, understanding the impacts of the interactions in both systems is crucial for governments, system operators, regulators and operational planners, particularly, to ensure security of supply for the overall energy system. Although simulation has been widely used in the assessment of gas systems as well as power systems, there is a significant gap in simulation models that are able to address the coupling of both systems. In this paper, a simulation framework that models and simulates the gas and power network in an integrated manner is proposed. The framework consists of a transient model for the gas system and a steady state model for the power system based on AC-Optimal Power Flow. The gas and power system model are coupled through an interface which uses the coupling equations to establish the data exchange and coordination between the individual models. The bidirectional interlink between both systems considered in this studies are the fuel gas offtake of gas fired power plants for power generation and the power supply to liquefied natural gas (LNG terminals and electric drivers installed in gas compressor stations and underground gas storage facilities. The simulation framework is implemented into an innovative simulation tool named SAInt (Scenario Analysis Interface for Energy Systems and the capabilities of the tool are demonstrated by performing a contingency analysis for a real world example. Results indicate how a disruption triggered in one system propagates to the other system and affects the operation of critical facilities. In addition, the studies show the importance of using transient gas models for security of supply studies instead of successions of

  14. Security of supply and retail competition in the European gas market

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Abada, Ibrahim, E-mail: ibrahim.abada@polytechnique.edu [IFP Energies nouvelles, 1 et 4 avenue de Bois Preau, 92852 Rueil-Malmaison (France); EDF Research and Development, 1 avenue du General de Gaulle, 92140 Clamart (France); EconomiX-CNRS, University of Paris Ouest (France); Massol, Olivier, E-mail: olivier.massol@ifpen.fr [Center for Economics and Management, IFP School, 228-232 av. Napoleon Bonaparte, 92852 Rueil-Malmaison (France); Department of Economics, City University London, Northampton Square, London EC1V 0HB (United Kingdom)

    2011-07-15

    In this paper, we analyze the impact of uncertain disruptions in gas supply upon gas retailer contracting behavior and consequent price and welfare implications in a gas market characterized by long-term gas contracts using a static Cournot model. In order to most realistically describe the economical situation, our representation divides the market into two stages: the upstream market that links, by means of long-term contracts, producers in exporting countries (Russia, Algeria, etc.) to local retailers who bring gas to the consuming countries to satisfy local demands in the downstream market. Disruption costs are modeled using short-run demand functions. First we mathematically develop a general model and write the associated KKT conditions, then we propose some case studies, under iso-elasticity assumptions, for the long-short-run inverse-demand curves in order to predict qualitatively and quantitatively the impacts of supply disruptions on Western European gas trade. In the second part, we study in detail the German gas market of the 1980s to explain the supply choices of the German retailer, and we derive interesting conclusions and insights concerning the amounts and prices of natural gas brought to the market. The last part of the paper is dedicated to a study of the Bulgarian gas market, which is greatly dependent on the Russian gas supplies and hence very sensitive to interruption risks. Some interesting conclusions are derived concerning the necessity to economically regulate the market, by means of gas amounts control, if the disruption probability is high enough. - Highlights: > We model retail competition using a Nash-Cournot framework. > Risk-neutral retailers decide their import policy among a set of risky producers. > Case 1: the German gas trade of the 1980s to understand the gas sources' choices. > Case 2: the current Bulgarian gas trade to study the market properties. > Conclusions about the market regulation for welfare optimization reasons.

  15. Security of supply and retail competition in the European gas market. Some model-based insights

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abada, Ibrahim; Massol, Olivier

    2011-04-01

    In this paper, we analyze the impact of uncertain disruptions in gas supply upon gas retailer contracting behavior and consequent price and welfare implications in a gas market characterized by long-term gas contracts using a static Cournot model. In order to most realistically describe the economical situation, our representation divides the market into two stages: the upstream market that links, by means of long-term contracts, producers in exporting countries (Russia, Algeria, etc.) to local retailers who bring gas to the consuming countries to satisfy local demands in the downstream market. Disruption costs are modeled using short-run demand functions. First we mathematically develop a general model and write the associated KKT conditions, then we propose some case studies, under iso-elasticity assumptions, for the long-short-run inverse-demand curves in order to predict qualitatively and quantitatively the impacts of supply disruptions on Western European gas trade. In the second part, we study in detail the German gas market of the 1980's to explain the supply choices of the German retailer, and we derive interesting conclusions and insights concerning the amounts and prices of natural gas brought to the market. The last part of the paper is dedicated to a study of the Bulgarian gas market, which is greatly dependent on the Russian gas supplies and hence very sensitive to interruption risks. Some interesting conclusions are derived concerning the necessity to economically regulate the market, by means of gas amounts control, if the disruption probability is high enough. (authors)

  16. Security of supply and retail competition in the European gas market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abada, Ibrahim; Massol, Olivier

    2011-01-01

    In this paper, we analyze the impact of uncertain disruptions in gas supply upon gas retailer contracting behavior and consequent price and welfare implications in a gas market characterized by long-term gas contracts using a static Cournot model. In order to most realistically describe the economical situation, our representation divides the market into two stages: the upstream market that links, by means of long-term contracts, producers in exporting countries (Russia, Algeria, etc.) to local retailers who bring gas to the consuming countries to satisfy local demands in the downstream market. Disruption costs are modeled using short-run demand functions. First we mathematically develop a general model and write the associated KKT conditions, then we propose some case studies, under iso-elasticity assumptions, for the long-short-run inverse-demand curves in order to predict qualitatively and quantitatively the impacts of supply disruptions on Western European gas trade. In the second part, we study in detail the German gas market of the 1980s to explain the supply choices of the German retailer, and we derive interesting conclusions and insights concerning the amounts and prices of natural gas brought to the market. The last part of the paper is dedicated to a study of the Bulgarian gas market, which is greatly dependent on the Russian gas supplies and hence very sensitive to interruption risks. Some interesting conclusions are derived concerning the necessity to economically regulate the market, by means of gas amounts control, if the disruption probability is high enough. - Highlights: → We model retail competition using a Nash-Cournot framework. → Risk-neutral retailers decide their import policy among a set of risky producers. → Case 1: the German gas trade of the 1980s to understand the gas sources' choices. → Case 2: the current Bulgarian gas trade to study the market properties. → Conclusions about the market regulation for welfare optimization

  17. Labour market assessment of the offshore oil and gas industry supply and service sector in Newfoundland and Labrador

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2003-09-01

    The Petroleum Industry Human Resource Committee (PIHRC) commissioned this study in December 2002 to develop a profile of the labour demand and supply for the upstream production phase of the offshore oil and gas industry. Interviews with representatives from more than 45 countries in the offshore oil and gas sector in Newfoundland and Labrador were conducted. In addition, the results of a mail survey forwarded to an additional 42 companies were included along with a review of secondary labour market research. More than 340 positions were identified in the production phase in the study. Of these, approximately 80 were identified as difficult to recruit for a variety of reasons including: insufficient experience in the oil industry; occupational shortages; short-term or project employment opportunities; very limited employment opportunities and limited occupational supply; lack of specific occupational training programs; and additional projects possibly leading to occupational shortages. The study provided valuable input concerning future labour market and human resource planning and career counselling on the 340 positions previously identified. 10 tabs

  18. Labour market assessment of the offshore oil and gas industry supply and service sector in Newfoundland and Labrador

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2003-09-01

    The Petroleum Industry Human Resource Committee (PIHRC) commissioned this study in December 2002 to develop a profile of the labour demand and supply for the upstream production phase of the offshore oil and gas industry. Interviews with representatives from more than 45 countries in the offshore oil and gas sector in Newfoundland and Labrador were conducted. In addition, the results of a mail survey forwarded to an additional 42 companies were included along with a review of secondary labour market research. More than 340 positions were identified in the production phase in the study. Of these, approximately 80 were identified as difficult to recruit for a variety of reasons including: insufficient experience in the oil industry; occupational shortages; short-term or project employment opportunities; very limited employment opportunities and limited occupational supply; lack of specific occupational training programs; and additional projects possibly leading to occupational shortages. The study provided valuable input concerning future labour market and human resource planning and career counselling on the 340 positions previously identified. 10 tabs.

  19. Can fuel services supply be secured? Building trust in a multi-lateral approach to nuclear fuel cycles

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Antoine, B. [Engineering Systems Division, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 77 Massachusetts Avenue, Room E40-261, Cambridge, MA 02139 (United States); Rodriguez-Vieitez, E. [Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, One Brattle Sq., Room 503, Cambridge, MA 02138 (United States)

    2009-06-15

    Global climate change and concerns about energy supply security fuelling the nuclear desires of an increasing number of states, there is growing interest within the nonproliferation community to promote the establishment of an international system for the provision of nuclear fuel cycle services that would be 'equitable and accessible to all users of nuclear energy' (Rauf, 2008) while reducing proliferation risks. Although the idea was already voiced on the cradle of civilian use of nuclear energy (Baruch, 1946), the IAEA director's 2003 call for a group of international experts to examine the issue (ElBaradei, 2003) triggered renewed interest that resulted in up to twelve different proposals for multilateral nuclear fuel cycle arrangements (Rauf, 2008; Simpson, 2008). Nonproliferation experts have examined the conditions under which equitable and accessible access to enrichment, reprocessing and spent fuel disposal services can be granted to all users (Rauf, 2008; Braun 2006; Pellaud and al 2005). They suggested putting together multilateral nuclear approaches (MNA) that could consist in the establishment of mechanisms to assure fuel cycle services, or the shared ownership by recipient and host countries of fuel services facilities through either the creation of new multilateral centers or the conversion of existing national facilities into multinational enterprises. While countries that possess nuclear fuel facilities would benefit from the increased global security and strengthened non-proliferation situation that would result from the establishment of these MNAs, they would also be baited into participating by possible attraction of foreign investments as well as the opportunity to export high value services (Rushkin, 2006). Yet, what incentives would there be for a recipient non-nuclear state to participate in an arrangement that would intrinsically strip it of its sovereign right to ensure its fuel supply security? In addition to the economic

  20. Securing a safer, greener, expandable nuclear fuel cycle supply chain for future power production

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Capus, Georges

    2009-01-01

    After looking at what is necessary to sustainably ensure the global nuclear power plant fleet expansion, it becomes appearant that advanced reactor design should be accompanied with a greener and more flexible fuel cycle capability. The financial crisis has invaded all the front pages and our thoughts. However it has not rescheduled the growth of world population or reduced the desire of people in emerging economies to achieve a higher level of 'development'; nor has it alleviated climate change issues that demand CO2 constrained power sources. What is the outlook for nuclear power? On a worldwide basis, we have today a significant fleet of nuclear power plants, operating well, upgrading output, extending lifetime, and producing not only a safe reliable flow of electricity but a good flow of cash as well. For the countries hosting significant shares of this fleet, their nuclear power plants are increasingly precious assets, and despite the financial crisis, most of them are considering expansion of their nuclear fleets. For the others, the desire to access such a reliable and ultimately cheap source of energy will last longer than the temporary difficulties to get its financing. In short, the outlook for a massive phase of new nuclear builds remains very likely. Then comes the consequential issue of the nuclear fuel supply chain. From uranium exploration and production to back end solutions, most of the existing facilities were designed and startup decades ago. The question is therefore, does this supply chain offer the requested characteristics to sustain the nuclear power plants fleet for the long run? By requested characteristics, it is meant not only adequate capacity and improvement of quality, but also environmentally friendly new designs and processes. This paper is aimed at recalling the current situation of the supply chain, then at describing the status of major projects, and finally at identifying some gaps and issues

  1. Security of natural gas supply in Central Europe - Case study: Slovakia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Klepac, Jan

    2010-09-15

    Europe's dependence on imported hydrocarbons is increasing. Being the second largest consumer in the world, EU will need of billions of euro over the next 20 years to satisfy the expected energy demand and to replace the ageing infrastructure. Slovakia is the main transport corridor for the Russian gas delivered to the EU countries, 20% of the natural gas consumption in the EU countries is covered by transit through the Slovak territory. Slovakia is also almost 100% dependent on import of the Russian gas. Diversification of the natural gas resources therefore belongs to the key energy security issues in Slovakia.

  2. Communication from the commission to the council and the European parliament. Final report on the green paper: towards a European strategy for the security of energy supply

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2002-06-01

    energy saving in buildings, which provides a precise legislative framework for limiting energy consumption in this sector, representing 40% of the energy consumed in the European Union. Finally, the Commission has also made regulatory and fiscal proposals to promote biofuels. A wide debate also developed around the Green Paper proposal for a new approach to oil stocks. The debate on the Green Paper has shown the need to develop a Europe-wide security of supply concept which alone will enable Europe to control its energy future. Efforts to promote new and renewable energy sources, representing only 6% of the EU energy balance, have been too feeble so far: on present trends they will account for only 9% of total European consumption by 2030. The Green Paper's proposal for the development of these sources to be financed by conventional energy sources prompted a mitigated response. The nuclear factor remains an inseparable part of the debate. One major lesson to be drawn from the Green Paper debate is that the future of this industry depends on finding a clear and unequivocal answer to the question of the processing and transportation of radioactive waste. (A.L.B.)

  3. Communication from the commission to the council and the European parliament. Final report on the green paper: towards a European strategy for the security of energy supply

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2002-06-15

    energy saving in buildings, which provides a precise legislative framework for limiting energy consumption in this sector, representing 40% of the energy consumed in the European Union. Finally, the Commission has also made regulatory and fiscal proposals to promote biofuels. A wide debate also developed around the Green Paper proposal for a new approach to oil stocks. The debate on the Green Paper has shown the need to develop a Europe-wide security of supply concept which alone will enable Europe to control its energy future. Efforts to promote new and renewable energy sources, representing only 6% of the EU energy balance, have been too feeble so far: on present trends they will account for only 9% of total European consumption by 2030. The Green Paper's proposal for the development of these sources to be financed by conventional energy sources prompted a mitigated response. The nuclear factor remains an inseparable part of the debate. One major lesson to be drawn from the Green Paper debate is that the future of this industry depends on finding a clear and unequivocal answer to the question of the processing and transportation of radioactive waste. (A.L.B.)

  4. International symposium concluded that uranium supply for nuclear power is secure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2000-01-01

    The document informs that stable uranium supply to fuel nuclear power plants will continue to be available according to the conclusion reached at the International Symposium on the Uranium Production Cycle and the Environment held from 2 to 6 October 2000 at the IAEA in Vienna. The meeting included specialists from about 40 countries, in addition to the Arab Atomic Energy Agency, European Commission, OECD/Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA), Office of Supervising Scientist (OSS)/Environment Australia, United Nations, Uranium Institute, World Bank, the World Energy Council and the Nuclear Energy Institute (NEI)

  5. Nuclear fuel market: Supplies remaining stable and secured in the mean range

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Braatz, U.; Dibbert, H.J.

    1988-01-01

    Installation of additional power plant will keep the demand for uranium at a level allowing a constant uranium production during the next few years to come, although production will have to be kept lower than demand, as inventories have to be cut in order to achieve a favourable price structure. Prospects on a mean-term basis show that natural uranium supplies are ensured, at favourable purchaser prices. Concluded contracts for new nuclear power plant indicate a better plant capacity utilization in uranium production to be attainable by the 1990s. Conversion capacity, however, is expected to remain as excessive as presently for quite a long period still, although reprocessing produces increasing amounts of recovered uranium to be converted. The capacity for uranium separative work is favourable for the customers. Existing and projected production facilities already today ensure safe supplies beyond the turn of the millenium, under conditions by far better in terms of long-term competing energy sources. (orig./HP) [de

  6. LNG REGASIFICATION TERMINALS ACCESS CAPACITY ANALYSIS FOR SECURITY OF EUROPEAN NATURAL GAS SUPPLY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matija Veselić

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Increasing natural gas consumption, declining North Sea gas reserves, increased production costs and the deregulation of European gas and electricity markets have all combined to create new opportunities for LNG in Europe. In these circumstances, LNG represents an opportunity for many European countries to diversify their natural gas supply, while decreasing their dependence on Russian natural gas import at the same time. The largest exporters of LNG to Europe are Qatar, Algeria, Nigeria, Trinidad & Tobago, Egypt and Oman. Spain, Great Britain and France are the largest European importers of LNG. Spain has six LNG regasification terminals, followed by four in Great Britain, three in France, two in Italy and Turkey and finally Greece and Portugal with one terminal each. New LNG regasification terminals are currently under construction in Italy, Spain, Sweden and Netherlands. In addition, more than 30 new LNG terminal projects have been proposed around Europe. Italy plans to construct as many as 10 new regasification terminals, due to the strong orientation of its national energy policy towards LNG. Many European countries are strongly considering participating in the LNG chain for the first time, namely Albania, Cyprus, Ireland, Lithuania, Germany, Poland, Romania, Ukraine and Croatia. This paper focuses on a specific aspect of the LNG supply chain: the import facility (the paper is published in Croatian.

  7. Proceedings of SES International Conference on Can Slovakia secure energy supply and sustainable development without nuclear? Go Nuke Slovakia!

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2004-01-01

    The Conference proceedings included 28 papers. The Conference included the following sessions: (I): International views; (II): National views; (III): Industry views. Focused in its objective, the is aimed to send a clear, hard-hitting message to decision-makers. This is that: Slovakia cannot secure future energy supply, if it does not complete its partially built reactors and if it closes its safe and effective ones. Nuclear has to remain an indispensable part of the country's future energy mix. The event was opened with invited presentations by officials at the highest level of organisations such as the IAEA, the IEA, OECD/NEA, the NEI, the WNA and WANO, as well as the European Commission and Parliament. This line-up was followed by a host of speakers from the political and nuclear industrial arenas in Slovakia, the Czech Republic, Finland, Hungary and the Russian Federation

  8. Transient effects on groundwater chemical compositions from pumping of supply wells at the Nevada National Security Site, 1951-2008

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paces, James B.; Elliott, Peggy E.; Fenelon, Joseph M.; Laczniak, Randell J.; Moreo, Michael T.

    2012-01-01

    Nuclear testing and support activities at the Nevada National Security Site have required large amounts of water for construction, public consumption, drilling, fire protection, hydraulic and nuclear testing, and dust control. To supply this demand, approximately 20,000 million gallons of water have been pumped from 23 wells completed in 19 boreholes located across the Nevada National Security Site starting as early as the 1950s. As a consequence of more or less continuous pumping from many of these wells for periods as long as 58 years, transient groundwater flow conditions have been created in the aquifers that supplied the water. To evaluate whether long-term pumping caused changes in water compositions over time, available chemical analyses of water samples from these 19 boreholes were compiled, screened, and evaluated for variability including statistically significant temporal trends that can be compared to records of groundwater pumping. Data used in this report have been extracted from a large database (Geochem08, revision 3.0, released in September 2008) containing geochemical and isotopic information created and maintained by primary contractors to the U.S. Department of Energy, National Nuclear Security Administration, Nevada Site Office. Data extracted from this source were compiled for the entire period of record, converted to uniform reporting units, and screened to eliminate analyses of poor or unknown quality, as well as clearly spurious values. The resulting data are included in accompanying spreadsheets that give values for (1) pH and specific conductance, (2) major ion concentrations, (3) trace element concentrations and environmental isotope ratios, and (4) mean, median, and variance estimates for major ion concentrations. The resulting data vary widely in quality and time-series density. An effort has been made to establish reasonable ranges of analytical uncertainty expected for each analyte and eliminate analyses that are obvious outliers

  9. Russian gas price reform and the EU-Russia gas relationship: Incentives, consequences and European security of supply

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Spanjer, Aldo

    2007-01-01

    In order to provide a comprehensive picture on the relationship between Russia and the EU, the focus should be on both the external energy relationship as well as Russia's internal organization. This paper sets out to do this by combining both strands of research in order to arrive at recommendations for Europe on the way to adjust its energy policy towards Russia. The emphasis is on whether or not Russia should impose unified gas pricing. Main conclusions are that the perceived advantages of unified Russian gas pricing to Russia as well as Europe are in fact overstated and that EU security of supply might worsen under unified gas prices. Three policy recommendations are that EU policy should (1) more explicitly acknowledge the interdependence between Russia and Europe; (2) not push Russia towards unified gas pricing; and (3) not take for granted any increase in Russian exports flowing to Europe

  10. Global supply of oil. challenges and uncertainties; El suministro global de petroleo. Retos e incertidumbres

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Marzo, M.

    2011-07-01

    The National Petroleum Council warns us of a disturbing reality: the world is running out of fossil resources, but the continued increase in oil extraction from conventional sources has increasingly risks and these are a serious obstacle to ensure demand the medium term. also the International Energy Agency also warns of serious uncertainties and risks in the field of oil production to meet global demand in the medium and long term.

  11. The German electricity market. Does the present market design provide security of supply?; Strommarkt in Deutschland. Gewaehrleistet das derzeitige Marktdesign Versorgungssicherheit?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Janssen, Matthias; Peichert, Patrick; Perner, Jens; Riechmann, Christoph [Frontier Economics, Koeln (Germany); Niedrig, Thomas [Formaet Services GmbH, Rheinbach (Germany)

    2014-09-15

    A heated discussion is being waged in Germany and large parts of Europe over the introduction of what are referred to as capacity mechanisms, whose purpose is to provide security of supply in the electricity sector. In this context two consulting firms have undertaken a both qualitative and quantitative study of the fitness of the present market design, which is based on the ''Energy-Only Market'' (EOM), to provide security of supply in the German electricity market. The authors come to the conclusion that, if suitably framed, the EOM can continue to provide a secure electricity supply in accordance with consumer preferences and at the lowest possible cost.

  12. A methodology for handling exploration risk and constructing supply curves for oil and gas plays when resources are stacked

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dallaire, S.M.

    1994-01-01

    The use of project economics to estimate full-cycle supply prices for undiscovered oil and gas resources is a straightforward exercise for those regions where oil and gas plays are not vertically superimposed on one another, ie. are not stacked. Exploration risk is incorporated into such an analysis by using a simple two-outcome decision tree model to include the costs of dry and abandoned wells. The decision tree model can be expanded to include multiple targets or discoveries, but this expansion requires additional drilling statistics and resource assessment data. A methodology is suggested to include exploration risk in the preparation of supply curves when stacked resources are expected and little or no information on uphole resources is available. In this method, all exploration costs for wells drilled to targets in the play being evaluated are assigned to that play, rather than prorated among the multiple targets or discoveries. Undiscovered pools are assumed to either bear all exploration costs (full cycle discoveries) or no exploration costs (half cycle discoveries). The weighted full- and half-cycle supply price is shown to be a more realistic estimate of the supply price of undiscovered pools in a play when stacked resources exist. The statistics required for this methodology are minimal, and resource estimates for prospects in other zones are not required. The equation relating the average pool finding cost to the discovery record is applicable to different scenarios regarding the presence of shallower and deeper resources. The equation derived for the two-outcome decision tree model is shown to be a special case of the general expression. 5 refs., 7 figs

  13. Dealing with security of supply issues in natural gas sales contracts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Park, J. J.

    1999-01-01

    To avoid huge losses in a market where commodity prices can rise dramatically, gas marketers have developed a portfolio of contractual and non-contractual structures to avoid such losses. These structures had the effect of providing a sense of security that have proven to be false, or potentially false pending the outcome of decisions of appeal courts. This paper reviews these structures and examines some of the current issues. Non-contractual strategies employed by gas marketers include corporate warranty, dealing only with financially strong and reputable parties, limiting the dollar amount of exposure, and making short-term deals only. Contractual strategies include dedication of reserves (committing the gas produced from certain specified lands), requiring guarantee from corporate parent, letters of credit, or performance bonds. The concept of 'material adverse change' (MAC) a common method for dealing with the potential need for future security and its consequences, bankruptcies, receivership and set-off are explored and the manner in which the availability of set-off has changed following the recent Blue Range decision. In this decision the Court held that Enron's Master Agreement with Blue Range was not an 'eligible financial contract' because it contemplated the physical delivery of gas. Based on this decision it is possible to argue that set-off is no longer available for contracts intended for the physical delivery of natural gas. The collective consequence of these events and the recent spate of marketing failures require the gas marketing industry to review their forms of agreement and to reconsider their market exposure to any particular purchaser or supplier. The significant losses to companies that resulted from recent bankruptcies and insolvencies provide ample evidence that assuming a safe, closed position based on conventional gas marketing contracts is a risky proposition

  14. Integrating desalination to reservoir operation to increase redundancy for more secure water supply

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhushan, Rashi; Ng, Tze Ling

    2016-08-01

    We investigate the potential of integrating desalination to existing reservoir systems to mitigate supply uncertainty. Desalinated seawater and wastewater are relatively reliable but expensive. Water from natural resources like reservoirs is generally cheaper but climate sensitive. We propose combining the operation of a reservoir and seawater and wastewater desalination plants for an overall system that is less vulnerable to scarcity and uncertainty, while constraining total cost. The joint system is modeled as a multiobjective optimization problem with the double objectives of minimizing risk and vulnerability, subject to a minimum limit on resilience. The joint model is applied to two cases, one based on the climate and demands of a location in India and the other of a location in California. The results for the Indian case indicate that it is possible for the joint system to reduce risk and vulnerability to zero given a budget increase of 20-120% under current climate conditions and 30-150% under projected future conditions. For the Californian case, this would require budget increases of 20-80% and 30-140% under current and future conditions, respectively. Further, our analysis shows a two-way interaction between the reservoir and desalination plants where the optimal operation of the former is just as much affected by the latter as the latter by the former. This highlights the importance of an integrated management approach. This study contributes to a greater quantitative understanding of desalination as a redundancy measure for adapting water supply infrastructures for a future of greater scarcity and uncertainty.

  15. Challenge of the oil market

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jaidah, A M

    1981-11-01

    The oil market is experiencing a different environment in 1981 as demand for OPEC oil fades while customers run down their inventories. The oil-producing countries face a new challenge, but the need of consuming countries for secure oil supplies and the need of producing countries to broaden their economies and reduce dependence on a depleting resource continue. Two episodes 1973 to 1975 and late 1978 to the present, illustrate the current market situation. The impact of these episodes is the basis for recommended long-run goals that go beyond market management to the real challenge of converting oil resources into the real assets of economic development. (DCK)

  16. Information security with M/490 and BSI protection profile for ensuring data security and security of supply; Informationssicherheit mit M/490 und BSI-Schutzprofil zur Sicherstellung von Datenschutz und Versorgungssicherheit

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kiessling, Andreas [MVV Energie AG, Mannheim (Germany)

    2012-07-01

    The progressive distribution of decentralized energy generation plants as well as the necessary system flexibility result in an increased cross-linking of smart system components. The cross-linking of a critical infrastructure as well as the inclusion of communicative end customers in new market mechanisms and services bring new demands to guarantee data privacy and security of supply. Thus, the data privacy should be ensured already in the system design. It is also crucial to design the end-to-end process reliability in the context of complex component interactions and stakeholder interactions. Concepts in the context of the EU Smart Grid Mandate M/490 as well as the German BSI protection profile are dedicated to ensuring information security and data privacy on top-down and bottom-up approaches which indicate the analogies in the utilization of application clusters as a basis for threat analysis. Based on these concepts, a methodology for profiling of communication standards and security standards based on application descriptions and process descriptions within application case clusters as well as communication analysis and threat assessment with assignment of security levels and data protection classes is described.

  17. The ultimate emergency measures to secure a NPP under an accidental condition with no designed power or water supply

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Liang, K.S., E-mail: ksliang@alum.mit.edu [Institute of Nuclear Engineering and Science, National Tsing Hua University, 101 Sec. 2, Kuang-Fu Road, Hsinchu 30013, Taiwan (China); School of Nuclear Science and Engineering, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, 800 Dong-Chuan Road, Shanghai (China); Chiang, S.C. [Department of Nuclear Safety, Taiwan Power Company, 242 Sec. 3, Roosevelt Road, Taipei 10016, Taiwan (China); Hsu, Y.F.; Young, H.J.; Pei, B.S. [Institute of Nuclear Engineering and Science, National Tsing Hua University, 101 Sec. 2, Kuang-Fu Road, Hsinchu 30013, Taiwan (China); Wang, L.C. [Department of Nuclear Safety, Taiwan Power Company, 242 Sec. 3, Roosevelt Road, Taipei 10016, Taiwan (China)

    2012-12-15

    Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer An ultimate measure to secure core was developed, if power or water supply cannot be restored in time. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer This ultimate measure was simulated by RELAP5-3D to verify the concept of this emergency plan. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Quantification of the required raw water injection rate was performed for NPPS in Taiwan Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Reactor controlled depressurization within the 1st hour is essential to reduce the required raw water injection rate. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer For PWR, even heat sink can be developed, RCP seal leak might eventually cause core uncover 10 h after seal leak occurs. - Abstract: In the recent nuclear catastrophe which occurred in Japan on March 11, 2011, several units of Fukushima conventional BWR experienced a total loss of power and water supply triggered by a heavy earthquake and a following Tsunami beyond design basis. In Fukushima accident it was observed that sea water was injected into reactors only after hydrogen explosion took place and it was considered a little too late to prevent core from damage. With regard to this fact, the Taiwan power company develops an ultimate measure to prevent reactor from encountering core damage, if either designed AC power or reactor water supply cannot be restored in time. This ultimate measure was named as DIVing plan, abbreviated from system depressurization, water injection and containment venting. Once any designed AC power or reactor water supply is made available, this DIVing plan will be activated to (1) depressurize reactor first, (2) inject any available water into reactor by any available power supply if this critical status cannot be restored in time, and (3) vent the containment if necessary to maintain containment integrity. In this paper the DIVing plan was simulated by RELAP5-3D to verify the concept of it and also to quantify the required raw water injection rate to prevent core from damage for both

  18. The ultimate emergency measures to secure a NPP under an accidental condition with no designed power or water supply

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liang, K.S.; Chiang, S.C.; Hsu, Y.F.; Young, H.J.; Pei, B.S.; Wang, L.C.

    2012-01-01

    Highlights: ► An ultimate measure to secure core was developed, if power or water supply cannot be restored in time. ► This ultimate measure was simulated by RELAP5-3D to verify the concept of this emergency plan. ► Quantification of the required raw water injection rate was performed for NPPS in Taiwan ► Reactor controlled depressurization within the 1st hour is essential to reduce the required raw water injection rate. ► For PWR, even heat sink can be developed, RCP seal leak might eventually cause core uncover 10 h after seal leak occurs. - Abstract: In the recent nuclear catastrophe which occurred in Japan on March 11, 2011, several units of Fukushima conventional BWR experienced a total loss of power and water supply triggered by a heavy earthquake and a following Tsunami beyond design basis. In Fukushima accident it was observed that sea water was injected into reactors only after hydrogen explosion took place and it was considered a little too late to prevent core from damage. With regard to this fact, the Taiwan power company develops an ultimate measure to prevent reactor from encountering core damage, if either designed AC power or reactor water supply cannot be restored in time. This ultimate measure was named as DIVing plan, abbreviated from system depressurization, water injection and containment venting. Once any designed AC power or reactor water supply is made available, this DIVing plan will be activated to (1) depressurize reactor first, (2) inject any available water into reactor by any available power supply if this critical status cannot be restored in time, and (3) vent the containment if necessary to maintain containment integrity. In this paper the DIVing plan was simulated by RELAP5-3D to verify the concept of it and also to quantify the required raw water injection rate to prevent core from damage for both PWR and BWR plants in Taiwan, after the loss of passive cooling mechanism. Provided the passive cooling mechanism is lost

  19. The fundamental supplier in insolvency. Compatibility of security of supply and satisfaction of creditors; Der Grundversorger in der Insolvenz. Vereinbarkeit von Versorgungssicherheit und Glaeubigerbefriedigung

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Beckermann, Alina

    2009-07-01

    Up to the liberalisation of the energy economy, the question of the insolvency of power supply companies was not important due to the monopolistic position. In the case of setting up an insolvency according to the fortune of the basic supplier, the guarantee of security of supply (paragraph paragraph 36, 38 EnWG) and the optimal satisfaction of the creditors (insolvency regulation, InsO) coincide. The author of the contribution under consideration reports on the legal questions in connection with this. The main chapters of this contribution are: (a) Contents, range and purpose of the obligation of fundamental and auxiliary supply; (b) Legal relevance of the question concerning to the compatibility of security of supply and the optimal satisfaction of the creditors; (c) Compatibility of the goals in accordance with paragraph paragraph 36, 38 EnWG and InsO.

  20. Integrated energy and climate policy. Securing the supply of natural energy. An investigation of the German and European law; Integrierte Energie- und Klimapolitik. Die Sicherstellung der Erdgasversorgung. Eine Untersuchung deutschen und europaeischen Rechts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nordmann, Henning

    2012-07-01

    Due to the extreme importance of natural gas as an energy source within an integrated energy policy and climate policy at national and European level, and due to the specific risks associated with the supply of natural gas, the contribution under consideration reports on the security of supply of natural gas. The following aspects are examined: To what extent are regulations on security of the natural gas supply provided in the German and European law. Which actors have the responsibility for the security of supply? What are the weaknesses in the legal arrangement of security of supply? The contribution also reports on the increasing importance of the EU as an actor of guarantee. The contribution of the EU to the security of supply in the supply of natural gas also is analysed.