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Sample records for oil market simulation

  1. World oil market simulation

    Baldwin, N.

    1992-01-01

    This paper presents a recursive simulation model of the world oil market - the World Oil Market Simulation Model (WOMS). The objective was to construct a computationally simple model which provides a transparent view of the workings of the oil market. In the event WOMS has a number of features which distinguish it from other published models: the effect of exchange rate movements is incorporated in the supply and demand functions; both demand and supply functions are dynamic; the non-OPEC supply functions account for the geological as well as the economic aspects of supply; oil prices can be determined either by OPEC setting prices (as normally included in this type of model) or by OPEC setting volumes and market forces determining the price; and consistency checks on consumers' and producers' behaviour are incorporated to confirm the plausibility of model projections. The paper commences with an outline of the model structure followed by an examination of the choice of the appropriate data. The main sections of the paper discuss the estimation of the demand and non-OPEC supply functions. Finally the modelling of OPEC's behaviour is addressed. Comparisons are made throughout with other published work. As the model was estimated using data covering 1960 to 1985, brief comments are also made comparing the events of 1986 with model determined values. (author)

  2. The oil market

    Amic, E.; Lautard, P.

    1999-01-01

    This chapter examines the structure of the oil industry and the impacts of the oil markets on the hedging strategies of the energy consumers, the oil company, and the energy derivatives' provider. An introduction to market perspectives is presented, and the hedging operations in the jet fuel market in the airline sector are discussed. Trading and risk management within an oil company, the derivatives provider, trading derivatives in a multi-dimensional world, locational risks, and the modelling of term structure and the role of storage are considered. Industrial spreads and the role of refining, future market developments and market strategies for crude oil and oil products, and marketing packages and market risk are addressed

  3. Oil market outlook

    Starling, Philip

    1997-01-01

    The role of the International Energy Agency's (IEA) ''OiMarket Report'' is described in terms of its response to and support for oil companies seeking to monitor short-term global oil market developments. The document is increasingly used for reference both by industry and governments. Data is compiled from oil companies, consultants, and government, and OECD countries provide supply/demand oil balance data by product grade on a monthly basic. (UK)

  4. Dynamic international oil markets

    van der Linde, C.

    1992-01-01

    Dynamic International Oil Market Developments and Structure 1860-1990 discusses the logic of changing market structures of the international oil industry. The market structures have, in the course of time, oscillated between competition and oligopoly, as the oil market expanded, matured, stagnated, and expanded again. This book provides a dynamic interpretation of the intensifying struggle among producer, and consumer governments, and oil companies, over the distribution of economic rents and profits. In particular, it shows the shifting fortunes of the governments and companies as they try to control the recurring capacity constraints between the upstream and downstream sectors, generated by the instability of the oil market. The first part of the book examines market conditions and developments between 1860 and 1990; the second part analyzes market structures after 1945

  5. Geopolitics of oil markets

    Liscom, W.L.

    1991-01-01

    Geopolitics can inject a great deal of uncertainty and cause fundamental shifts in the overall direction of oil markets, which would otherwise act in a fairly predictable and stable manner. The Iraqi invasion of Kuwait and the response of the USA were definitely linked with oil, and the aftermath of the invasion left four geopolitical issues affecting world oil markets. The provision authorizing $1.6 billion in Iraqi oil exports under the United Nations sanctions was imposed with little concern about the potential impact of these exports on the oil market; Iraq could export as much as 1 million bbl/d and it is unlikely that exports would be stopped once the $1.6 billion limit is reached. By making up most of the supply shortfall during the Kuwait crisis, Saudi Arabia suddenly became the producer of over a third of OPEC oil supplies and now dominates OPEC. The Saudis have indicated it will swing production according to world demand, irrespective of what OPEC wants, so that world oil demand will return strongly and remain. Middle East politics in general will determine the stability of oil supplies in the region for many of the countries. A producer-consumer dialogue at the high governmental level has started, with a view to some type of multilateral understanding in the light of mutual interests in secure oil supplies. This is not likely to have a big impact on oil markets without participation and support from the USA. The recent changes in the Soviet Union have potential impacts in regard to the attraction of that market for Western investment, in particular to assist exports. The worldwide environmental movement will also play a geopolitical role in the world oil market due to its influence on oil taxation policies

  6. European gas oil markets

    Long, D.

    1991-04-01

    The developments over the past five years of the bulk markets for gas oil in Europe are examined using advanced econometric techniques to study the related issues of pricing efficiency and hedge efficiency. The study attempts to preserve the fluctuations of the actual data as these provide insights into the process of price discovery. The markets studied include the spot, forward and futures markets and looks for evidence of differentiated markets. (UK)

  7. The oil market

    Durousset, M.

    1999-01-01

    This document presents todays economical and strategic realities of the oil market. According to the author, petroleum will remain a vital energy source essentially supplied by the Middle-East with strong increasing and decreasing demand changes. (J.S.)

  8. Crude oil market report

    1985-01-01

    Falling demand for refined products and an excess of production capacity are driving world oil prices down further. Competitive price cutting, notably by Mexico, Britain, and the Soviet Union, has left Saudi Arabia the only guardian of a costly pricing discipline in terms of crude oil sales. The current crisis is limited to the producers of crude oil. Refineries are now deciding what, where, and how to buy crude in order to meet the requirements of a slack market place. Saudi Arabia could precipitate a price collapse below $20 per barrel by increasing production volume, but that seems unlikely. 1 figure, 2 tables.

  9. Oil seed marketing prospects

    Ceroni, G.

    1992-01-01

    With its 100 million tonnes annual production, the American continent is by far the world's biggest producer of oil seed, followed by Asia - 52 million, and Europe - 27 million tonnes. The Italian and European Communities have the farming capacity to double their production, but international agreements currently prohibit such initiatives. After first providing a panorama of the world oil seed market, this paper discusses new reforms in European Communities internal agricultural policies which currently limit production. These reforms, intended to encourage the production of oil seed for use as an ecological automotive fuel alternative, call for an obligatory set-aside of 15% of producing farm-land in exchange for the compensatory removal of oil seed production limits

  10. Challenge of the oil market

    Jaidah, A M

    1981-11-01

    The oil market is experiencing a different environment in 1981 as demand for OPEC oil fades while customers run down their inventories. The oil-producing countries face a new challenge, but the need of consuming countries for secure oil supplies and the need of producing countries to broaden their economies and reduce dependence on a depleting resource continue. Two episodes 1973 to 1975 and late 1978 to the present, illustrate the current market situation. The impact of these episodes is the basis for recommended long-run goals that go beyond market management to the real challenge of converting oil resources into the real assets of economic development. (DCK)

  11. Models of the oil market

    Cremer, J.; Salehi-Isfahani, D.

    1991-01-01

    Economists have proposed a large variety of models of the oil market which differ in their methodology and in the questions they answer. This book integrates them and emphasizes the relationships between the choice of economic tools and the practical consequences of the analysis. After history of the events of the last twenty years, the authors survey the informal descriptions written by policy oriented analysts. Chapters on quantitative models follow, one stressing simulations and the other the work of theorists. Finally, a discussion of econometric work precedes a survey of open questions

  12. Oil futures and spot markets

    Samii, M.V.

    1992-01-01

    In the last decade, the oil futures market has risen to prominence and has become a major factor in influencing oil market psychology and the crude oil market. On a normal day, over 92 thousand contracts, the equivalent of 92 million barrels per day, change hands on the New York Mercantile Exchange, NYMEX. This market has provided a vehicle for hedging against risk. At the same time, it has also created opportunities for speculation. Those who previously were unable to participate in oil market transactions can now become involved through the futures market. The large number of participants in the future market and the availability of information has made this market more efficient and transparent, relative to the crude oil market. While there has been considerable in-depth analysis of other future markets, relatively little theoretical attention has focused on that of oil. This paper looks at the following issues. First, what is the relationship between futures and spot oil prices? And secondly, are futures prices a good predictor of spot crude prices in the future? (author)

  13. Review and Outlook of China's Oil Market

    Gong Jinshuang

    2006-01-01

    @@ Major features of China's oil market in 2005 China's oil market is changing under the influence of domestic economy and the international oil market, witnessing different characteristics from time to time.

  14. Update on Spain's oil market

    Whitaker, D.; Gutierrez, I.

    1994-01-01

    Since Spain's entry into the European Community a liberalisation of the oil industry has occurred culminating in two oil sector reform laws passed in 1992. While competition has increased, a return to the free-market policies which held sway before 1927 has not happened. Rather, three large companies dominate the Spanish oil market, with continuing input from government towards liberalization, if somewhat slowly. This paper describes recent changes and examines factors which limit liberalization policies. (UK)

  15. Russian oil goes to market

    Kandelaki, T.L.; Tankayev, R.U.

    1997-01-01

    In 1996, Russia retained its place as the world's third largest producer of oil and gas condensate after Saudi Arabia and the USA. Data are provided on Russia's oil sales to its domestic market, to the former Soviet Union and to the rest of the world. These are accompanied by a commentary on Russia's world-wide market, refining in Russia, transportation costs of crude from the generally remote areas where it is produced and price ranges in the various market segments. (7 tables) (UK)

  16. The oil markets: A vision

    Miras Salamanca, P.

    2007-01-01

    Although oil markets show high levels of volatility, governments and institutions are much more concern with the problem of security of supply. Fundamental drivers of these markets vary from global questions (such as the balance between world supply and demand or the geopolitical situation), to national and local issues (regulation, industry structure and the cost chain in a given market). Global factors account for the lions share of the final price. Therefore, price variations of oil products tend to be similar in different environment. However, regulators and competition watchdogs should put special attention to supervise smaller areas, where specific problems could occur. (Author)

  17. The oil market towards 2030 - can OPEC combine high oil price with high market share

    Aune, Finn Roar; Glomsroed, Solveig; Lindholt, Lars; Rosendahl, Knut Einar

    2005-01-01

    In this paper we examine within a partial equilibrium model for the oil market whether OPEC can combine high oil prices with a high market share. The oil market model explicitly accounts for reserves, development and production in 4 field categories across 13 regions. Oil companies may invest in new field development or alternatively on improved oil recovery in the decline phase of fields in production. Non-OPEC production is profit-driven, whereas OPEC meets the residual call for OPEC oil at a pre-specified oil price, while maintaining a surplus capacity. The model is run over a range of exogenous oil prices from 15 to 60 $ per barrel. Sustained high oil prices stimulate Non-OPEC production, but its remaining reserves gradually diminish despite new discoveries. Oil demand is only slightly affected by higher prices. Thus, OPEC is able to keep and eventually increase its current market share beyond 2010 even with oil prices around $30 per barrel. In fact, the model simulations indicate that an oil price around $40 is profitable for OPEC, even in the long term. Sensitivity analyses show that the most profitable price level for OPEC is generally above $35 per barrel. Even with several factors working jointly in OPEC's disfavour, the oil price seems to stick to the 30 $ level. Thus, for OPEC there is a trade-off between high prices and high market share in the short to medium term, but not in the long term. For OECD countries, on the other hand, there is a clear trade-off between low oil prices and low import dependence. (Author)

  18. Special report: EC oil market

    Anon.

    1992-01-01

    A European Commission report on the EC's oil market has conceded that the Community will not meet its official objective of reducing oil's share of energy consumption to 40% by 1995. The paper, a 'Communication' to the European Council entitled ''The Oil Market and the Refining Industry in the Community: Recent Developments and Prospects'' says oil will ''continue to account for a major share - of the order of 45% -of the Community's energy consumption'' up to the year 2000. Nonetheless, the report's authors insist the Commission has proposed ''a number of measures'' which could reduce the potential consumption of fossil fuels and help limit CO2 emissions. The report confirms that though lower in 1990 than 1980 at 530mt, oil demand picked up in the second half of the 1980s, reflecting world trends. Little impression has been made on the proportion of the Community's crude supply that is imported. However, one area where the report did find energy objectives successes was that of diversifying sources of crude oil supply. A major source of concern for the Commission at one stage in the second half of the 1980s was the possibility of massive imports of finished oil products from refineries in the oil producing countries. However, the fact that this threat did not materialise is taken as a vindication of the Commission's assessment in previous analyses that ''an open Community market should be maintained''. (author)

  19. Oil market prices 1989/1990

    Jenkins, G.

    1991-01-01

    There are many oil markets. Oil Market Prices lists the markets, provides statistics on prices and the volumes of trade, analyses the price structures in the markets and provides supplementary information on ocean freight rates and oil refining margins. Oil Market Prices will serve as a permanent record of crude oil prices including those quoted on the futures and forward markets, the many wholesale prices for refined oil products, prices consumers pay and the average prices received by the oil companies. In all instances the sources of the statistics are given together with comprehensive listing of alternative sources. (Author)

  20. Reference data on world oil markets

    2005-01-01

    This paper makes a status of the 2004 activity of worldwide oil markets: oil demand, oil supplies (OPEC and non-OPEC countries, unused production capacities), formation of oil prices (role of stockpiles, role of terminal markets, impact of dollar rate), economic data: OPEC objectives, market vision, volatility of prices, supply and demand. (J.S.)

  1. Producers and oil markets

    Greaves, W.

    1993-01-01

    This article attempts an assessment of the potential use of futures by the Middle East oil producers. It focuses on Saudi Arabia since the sheer size of Saudi Arabian sales poses problems, but the basic issues discussed are similar for the other Middle East producers. (Author)

  2. Oil price stability and free markets

    Yamani, A.Z.

    1992-01-01

    The oil industry, like any capital-intensive industry with long supply lead times, is prone to price instability. Free markets in oil reflect this inherent instability, for prices are efficient signallers of imbalances between supply and demand. Free markets are desirable in principle, but entirely free oil markets are unstable. Volatile oil prices are undesirable. This article advocates trading some market freedom for more price stability, since such a trade off will be beneficial to the world as a whole. (author)

  3. The functioning of the oil market during an oil crisis

    Hughes, G.; Siner, M.; Tijdhof, B.

    2003-01-01

    The title study regarding the functioning of the oil market during an oil crisis is carried out with particular reference to the strategic behaviour of oil companies. Section 2 identifies major oil supply disruptions since 1951 and describes some important changes in the market that have occurred in recent decades; Section 3 reviews the economic literature of the functioning of oil markets during disruptions and models of oil supply disruptions; Section 4 examines the response of oil markets to recent supply disruptions; Section 5 examines the incentives and scope for strategic behaviour; Section 6 considers the implications of our analysis for the design of policy responses to oil supply disruptions; Appendix A describes the background to the four recent oil supply disruptions; Appendix B discusses the relationship between spot and futures prices for a storable commodity; and Appendix C is the bibliography

  4. Joint ventures and concentrations in oil market

    Tabarelli, D.

    1996-01-01

    Many are the joint ventures taken during last year by the oil companies as a move towards the ever existing rules of the oil market: integration, economies of scale and reduction of competitive market uncertainty. This article discusses some of the most interesting points of the recent events and the initiatives in the Italian market

  5. Medium-Term Oil Market Report 2006

    NONE

    2006-07-01

    How much oil will the world consume in 2011? What role will OPEC play in global oil production? Will biofuels become an important part of the oil market? The International Energy Agencys (IEA) Medium-Term Oil Market Report tackles these questions, adopting a perspective that goes beyond the traditional short-term market analysis provided in the IEAs monthly Oil Market Report. Drawing on current futures curves and the investment threshold for upstream projects, the Medium-Term Oil Market Report analyses how global demand and supply balances may develop in the next five years. The forecasts look in detail at product demand and the supply potential from all the firmly planned individual upstream and downstream projects around the world. The results provide invaluable insights on vital issues such as surplus production capacity and product supply. The rapid pace of change in the oil market means that forecasts can become outdated very quickly. This interim update provides the opportunity to rebase the data and forecasts in the annual Medium-Term Oil Market Report and to discuss and analyse new issues affecting the oil industry. Policymakers, market analysts, energy experts and anyone interested in understanding and following trends in the oil market should find this report extremely useful.

  6. Growing markets to sustain oil sands development

    Wise, T.H.

    2003-01-01

    The utilization of Alberta bitumen for the clean fuels market depends on upgrading, transportation, and refining processes. Forecasts show that oil sands production, which includes synthetic crude oil (SCO), will surpass declining conventional production in Western Canada. Several issues pose a challenge to the oil sands processing industry. The producers' market is affected by crude oil prices, market expansion options, diluent availability/cost, supply cost competitiveness, and regional processing. The common market issues include light/heavy crude prices, oil sands crude qualities, prices of oil sands crudes, pipeline infrastructure, and competitive supplies. The issues facing the refiners are: refining margins, security of crude supply, refined product quality, and competitive product supply. A brief review of markets for Canadian crude oil, including synthetic crude, was provided. The share of the Midwest market by Alberta must be retained and increased. The market expansion options were reviewed for both downstream (refining) and upstream (upgrading) operations. To reach more distant markets such as Southern Midwest, Washington, and California, new pipeline capacity would be required. The market is nearly saturated for Canada's heavy oil supply. More upgrading will be required as bitumen production increases. Market growth is still possible for Canada's SCO but according to forecasts, the market could also become saturated. To increase demand and allow supplies to grow, SCO prices may fall below light crude prices. It was noted that a balance must be achieved in order for producers to increase production and for refiner/upgraders to expand their conversion capacity. tabs., figs

  7. Latin American oil markets and refining

    Yamaguchi, N.D.; Obadia, C.

    1999-01-01

    This paper provides an overview of the oil markets and refining in Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Mexico, Peru and Venezuela, and examines the production of crude oil in these countries. Details are given of Latin American refiners highlighting trends in crude distillation unit capacity, cracking to distillation ratios, and refining in the different countries. Latin American oil trade is discussed, and charts are presented illustrating crude production, oil consumption, crude refining capacity, cracking to distillation ratios, and oil imports and exports

  8. Modelling the world oil market: Assessment of a quarterly econometric model

    Dees, Stephane; Karadeloglou, Pavlos; Kaufmann, Robert K.; Sanchez, Marcelo

    2007-01-01

    This paper describes a structural econometric model of the world oil market that can be used to analyse oil market developments and risks. Oil demand depends on domestic economic activity and the real price of oil. Oil supply for non-OPEC producers, based on competitive behaviours, is constrained by geological and institutional conditions. Oil prices are determined by a 'price rule' that includes market conditions and OPEC behaviour. Policy simulations indicate that oil demand and non-OPEC supply are rather inelastic to changes in price, while OPEC decisions about quota and capacity utilisation have a significant, immediate impact on oil prices

  9. Medium-Term Oil Market Report 2007

    NONE

    2007-07-01

    How much oil will the world consume in 2012? What role will OPEC play in global oil production? Will biofuels become an important part of the oil market? How will the refinery sector cope? The International Energy Agency (IEA) Medium-Term Oil Market Report tackles these questions, adopting a perspective that goes beyond the traditional short-term market analysis provided in the IEA Oil Market Report. Drawing on current futures curves and the investment threshold for upstream projects, the Medium-Term Oil Market Report analyses how global demand and supply balances may develop. By assessing all firmly planned upstream and downstream projects worldwide, this report forecasts supply and demand potential for crude and petroleum products over the next five years. The results provide an invaluable insight into vital issues such as surplus production capacity and product supply. An essential report for all policymakers, market analysts, energy experts and anyone interested in understanding and following oil market trends, the Medium-Term Oil Market Report is a further element of the strong commitment of the IEA to improving and expanding the quality, timeliness and accuracy of energy data and analysis.

  10. Market opportunities and challenges for oil sands

    Wise, T.H.

    2004-01-01

    The use of Alberta bitumen as a clean fuel depends on upgrading, transportation, and refining processes. Forecasts show that oil sands production, which includes synthetic crude oil (SCO), will surpass declining conventional production from the Western Canada Sedimentary Basin. The challenges facing the oils sands processing industry include: crude oil prices which affect the producer's market; market expansion options; diluent availability/cost; supply cost competitiveness; and, regional processing. The common market issues include light/heavy crude prices, oil sands crude qualities, prices of oil sands crudes, pipeline infrastructure, and competitive supplies. The issues facing the refiners are: refining margins, security of crude supply, refined product quality, and competitive product supply. It was noted that Alberta must retain or increase its share of the Midwest market. The market expansion options were reviewed for both downstream (refining) and upstream (upgrading) operations. New pipeline capacity is needed to reach more distant markets such as Southern Midwest, Washington, and California. The market is nearly saturated for Canada's heavy oil supply. More upgrading will be required as bitumen production increases. Market growth is still possible for Canada's SCO but according to forecasts, the market could also become saturated. To increase demand and allow supplies to grow, SCO prices may fall below light crude prices. It was noted that a balance must be achieved in order for producers to increase production and for refiner/upgraders to expand their conversion capacity. 13 figs

  11. Economic crisis and oil market balances

    Duquesnoy, S.; Rozenberg, J.; Hourcade, J.Ch.

    2011-01-01

    One might intuitively think that an economic crisis would at least relieve the pressure on oil supply since it slows energy demand. From the model of the oil market DYSMO, we show that an economic crisis may on the contrary increase tension, as it postpones investment in oil supply. (authors)

  12. Market potential for Canadian crude oil

    Heath, M.; Fisher, L.; Golosinski, D.; Luthin, A.; Gill, L.; Raggett, C.

    1997-01-01

    Future key markets for Canadian crude were evaluated, and probable flow volumes and prices were identified. Key concerns of market participants such as pricing, alternative crude sources, pipeline tariffs and crude quality, were examined. An overview of the competition faced by Canadian crude supply in global markets was presented. World crude oil supply and demand was discussed. US and Canadian crude oil supply (2000 to 2010), refinery demand for light and heavy crudes, existing future crude oil and refined product pipeline infrastructure, and pricing implications of changing crude oil flows were analyzed. The general conclusion was that the US market will continue to provide growing markets for Canadian crude oil, and that the Canadian supply to fulfill increased export requirements will be available due to the combined effects of increasing heavy crude supply, growing production from the east coast offshore, and recent and ongoing pipeline expansions and additions. 20 refs., 64 tabs., 42 figs

  13. Outlook for international oil markets

    Zanoyan, V; French, M

    1984-01-01

    Despite increased hostilities in the Persian Gulf, there has been a slack in both petroleum product and crude markets and concern over the possibility of a wave of refinery bankruptcies. The short-term outlook recognizes that OPEC problems are not permanent. Demand is not expected to return to pre-1979 levels, and demand growth will not have an equal distribution among OPEC members. Mid-term projections are for real oil prices to be about 12% below 1982 levels, with the decline continuing through 1986. The only significant demand expansion will occur in the industrial sectors of the developing countries due to conservation efforts and fuel substitution that will continue to reduce petroleum's share of total energy consumed by developed countries. Consumption in the transport sector will probably remain at current levels. Oil production in Western countries should peak and then decline during the 1980s, with non-OPEC developing countries filling some of the demand gap and OPEC prices going up instead of production. 6 tables.

  14. Exploring oil market dynamics: a system dynamics model and microworld of the oil producers

    Morecroft, J.D.W. [London Business School (United Kingdom); Marsh, B. [St Andrews Management Institute, Fife (United Kingdom)

    1997-11-01

    This chapter focuses on the development of a simulation model of global oil markets by Royal Dutch/Shell Planners in order to explore the implications of different scenarios. The model development process, mapping the decision making logic of the oil producers, the swing producer making enough to defend the intended price, the independents, quota setting, the opportunists, and market oil price and demand are examined. Use of the model to generate scenarios development of the model as a gaming simulator for training, design of the user interface, and the value of the model are considered in detail. (UK)

  15. OIL AND GAS FUTURES AND OPTIONS MARKET

    Ante Nosić; Daria Karasalihović Sedlar; Lucija Jukić

    2017-01-01

    Energy mineral resources markets are represented by complex supply and demand ratios which are depending on different factors such as technical (transport) and geopolitical. The main specific of energy markets is represented by an uneven geographic distribution of hydrocarbon reserves and exploration on one hand and energy consumption on the other. World oil markets, although geographically localized, because of specific market trade, represent unique global market with decreasing price diffe...

  16. Oil Market and Prices Prospects for 2014

    Mariana Papatulica

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available The international crude oil prices started the year 2014 within parameters comparable to those of the precedent year: WTI (USA recorded 92 $/barrel, on the American spot market, considered a minimum value for the last 5 weeks, while Brent (Great Britain had a more stable evolution, on the spot Rotterdam market, staying around a value of 107,50 $/barrel. Despite analysts’ forecasts, which during the last 3 years staked on a lower oil price, as a consequence of the spectacular increase in non-OPEC oil production, namely of shale oil, the international oil price, namely that of Brent, closed each of the last 3 years around the same level, of 108 $/barrel. As for 2014, the great majority of oil analysts estimates again a decline of oil prices, as a result of a significant rise of oil offer globally, which will greatly surpass the demand rise.

  17. Dynamics of world oil crops market

    Knežević Marija

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available According to the harvested area, oil crops are the second most important crops after cereals. Soybean is the most important oil crop in terms of production and trade of oilseeds and meals, and second most important in terms of production and trade of vegetable oils after palm oil. Dynamics of prices of derived oil crop products in the international market is conditioned by the relationship between supply and demand in the overall market of oil crops. The substitution of animal fats with vegetable oils in human nutrition, the expansion of biodiesel industry and intensification of livestock production have led to increased demand for oil crops. The objective of this paper was to identify trends in production, consumption and trade of soybeans, rapeseed and sunflower and their derived products.

  18. Gold and oil futures markets: Are markets efficient?

    Narayan, Paresh Kumar; Zheng, Xinwei [School of Accounting, Economics and Finance, Faculty of Business and Law, Deakin University, 221 Burwood Highway, Burwood, Victoria 3125 (Australia); Narayan, Seema [School of Economics Finance and Marketing, RMIT University, Melbourne (Australia)

    2010-10-15

    In this paper we examine the long-run relationship between gold and oil spot and futures markets. We draw on the conceptual framework that when oil price rises, it creates inflationary pressures, which instigate investments in gold as a hedge against inflation. We test for the long-run relationship between gold and oil futures prices at different maturity and unravel evidence of cointegration. This implies that: (a) investors use the gold market as a hedge against inflation and (b) the oil market can be used to predict the gold market prices and vice versa, thus these two markets are jointly inefficient, at least for the sample period considered in this study. (author)

  19. Gold and oil futures markets: Are markets efficient?

    Narayan, Paresh Kumar; Zheng, Xinwei; Narayan, Seema

    2010-01-01

    In this paper we examine the long-run relationship between gold and oil spot and futures markets. We draw on the conceptual framework that when oil price rises, it creates inflationary pressures, which instigate investments in gold as a hedge against inflation. We test for the long-run relationship between gold and oil futures prices at different maturity and unravel evidence of cointegration. This implies that: (a) investors use the gold market as a hedge against inflation and (b) the oil market can be used to predict the gold market prices and vice versa, thus these two markets are jointly inefficient, at least for the sample period considered in this study. (author)

  20. 1999 Crude oil market outlook

    Cochener, J.

    1998-01-01

    Baseline projection handling of crude oil prices was discussed, based on actual crude oil price trends from 1992 to 1998. Attention was drawn to the lack of correlation between crude oil and natural gas prices. Predictions for crude oil production were extended to the year 2015. As far as the immediate future is concerned the crude oil price for 1999 was predicted to continue to be sluggish due to competitive pressure from refined products at burner tip. tabs., figs

  1. International oil market: instability and restructuring

    Ayoub, A

    1988-12-01

    The three phenomena which today dominate the international oil market are: 1. the downward price trend since 1981 and the uncertainty about medium and long term price evolution; 2. chronic price instability in the short term; 3. the trend toward new forms of vertical integration and concentration which are now stabilizing a market confronted by a weakening OPEC and free markets which are volatile. The new market restructuring the present period for the international oil sector as a transition period, with the following characteristics: 1. an evident convergence in the motivations of the major oil companies and of a number of OPEC countries, to see a certain stability restored in the oil market based on vertical integration and concentration; 2. markets cannot be stabilized by political agreements between the states, but only by reciprocal financial implications and participations between companies according to the rules of the business world; 3. the market as a whole will still continue for a certain time to be governed by the OPEC-free market pair, with alternating domination by one or the other according to the economic situation. Nevertheless, the longer the market continues to be unstable, the more the trend toward concentration and integration will intensify.

  2. Changes in the world market in oil and oil refinements

    Ristik, Julija

    1996-01-01

    Since 1980's the world market for crude oil and oil products has faced significant changes that are going to have a grate influence on the supply and consumption of crude oil derivatives in Macedonia. The knowledge of these changes would have a grate contribution in planning the future development of this part of the energetic system of Macedonia. The purpose of this paper (which is a short version of the introductory report for the ZEMAK session with a theme 'Energetic policy and development of energetics in Macedonia') is to present the actual situation on the market for crude oil products, as well as to give the main factors that would have influence on this market in the future. (author). 4 refs., 3 ills

  3. Developing new markets for oil sands products

    Crandall, G.

    2004-01-01

    This paper presents a review by Purvin and Gertz of western Canadian crude oil supply. This energy consulting firm provides advise to the energy sector. It suggests that oil sands production will surpass declining conventional production. Oil sands supply includes bitumen, synthetic crude oil (SCO), and diluent. It is forecasted that oil sands will increase from 42 per cent of western supply in 2002 to 78 per cent in 2015. The potential of Alberta's oil sands was discussed along with a recent study of refined products and petrochemicals from bitumen. Upgrading, refining and petrochemical case studies were presented. The author examined if a Canadian oil sands upgrading project with high capital costs can be competitive with competing projects in the United States and internationally. In addition to supply and demand issues, the presentation examined infrastructure capability and market potential in the United States. The economic potential and risks of preferred business cases compared to upgrading to SCO were also evaluated. 15 figs

  4. China Oil and Gas Market Assessment

    Qiu, Yu

    2004-08-01

    China, with one-fifth of the world's population and one of the fastest rates of economic growth, is experiencing a boom in its energy requirements. China has been identified as a high priority market for the oil and gas sector. This priority has resulted in the high level of investment and many large-scale projects related to the oil and gas industry. Oil production from existing fields is expected to increase, new oil and gas fields will be developed, and the country's oil and gas transmission infrastructure will be extended to meet domestic demands. In addition, total domestic investment needs for the next three decades till 2030 are estimated at around $119 billion, and upstream exploration and development will account for about $69 billion. China's oil and gas exploitation business has been the biggest beneficiary of the bearish crude oil prices, national oil stockpile and the need of infrastructure. In the first six-month period of 2005, this industry has gained a profit of USD16.5 billion, up 73.4 per cent year-on-year. The country is becoming increasingly open to international oil companies, contractors and equipment suppliers, who can bring advanced technology, equipment, and management experience. In this context, considerable opportunities in the supply and service sectors are open to Dutch companies. This report analyses the present situation and market prospect of China upstream oil and gas industry, including: Current status of Chinese oil and gas industry analysis and future development forecast; Potential customers analysis, such as three stated-owned oil companies and their foreign partners;Domestic and foreign competitors analysis; Potential opportunities and challenges analysis; Providing contacts and information on main ongoing oil exploration and development projects, and business practices

  5. How equity markets view heavy oil

    Janisch, M.L.

    2001-01-01

    A review of heavy oil economics was presented in this power point presentation with particular focus on investor motivation, the importance of heavy oil, and an outlook on commodity price for oil and natural gas. Heavy oil from oil sands is playing a major role on the Canadian domestic production front as well as globally. Almost all senior Canadian producers have a major heavy oil project in the works. Oil prices are forecasted to remain strong, but a more bullish outlook is expected for natural gas prices for both the short and long term. Natural gas drilling has increased, but the number of natural gas wells as a percentage of total wells has decreased. Recent Canadian drilling activity has placed more emphasis on crude oil production which has contributed to the lower overall natural gas drilling success rate. It was shown that infrastructure issues regarding tankers, refining capacity (at or near capacity) will be the major factor affecting the availability of crude products to market. It was also shown that heavy oil differentials have increased substantially, which could be a potential issue if oil prices begin to weaken. 1 tab., 12 figs

  6. China's oil market and refining sector

    Yamaguchi, N.D.; Fridley, D.G.

    2000-01-01

    The article assesses the future for China's oil industry as the country makes the transition from a command economy to an international market. China has one of the world's biggest oil industries and recent years have seen much growth in exploration and development, refining capacity and trade. China is more and more dependent on oil imports and is now a major international player; it has attracted much outside investment. Diagrams show (i) how coal dominates other sources of energy in China; (ii) crude production 1977-1998; (iii) how Middle East crudes now dominate Chinese crude imports; (iv) the growth of petroleum demand in China; (v) the Chinese demand for petroleum products; (vi) the growth in transport fuels; (vii) Chinese product imports: import ban targeted diesel; (viii) crude imports favoured over product imports and (ix) refinery capacity and throughput. The changes are expected to result in further integration into international markets, increased transparency and a healthier oil business

  7. OIL AND GAS FUTURES AND OPTIONS MARKET

    Ante Nosić

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Energy mineral resources markets are represented by complex supply and demand ratios which are depending on different factors such as technical (transport and geopolitical. The main specific of energy markets is represented by an uneven geographic distribution of hydrocarbon reserves and exploration on one hand and energy consumption on the other. World oil markets, although geographically localized, because of specific market trade, represent unique global market with decreasing price difference. Price differences are result of development of a transport possibilities of oil supply. Development of transport routes of natural gas and increasing number of liquefied natural gas terminals in the world give pressure to natural gas market and its integration into global gas market. Integration of regional gas markets into a common European gas market is main energy policy of EU concerning natural gas. On the other hand, there are still significant price differences on some markets (e.g. United States of America - South East Asia. Development of global energy markets is enabled by development of a futures and options contracts of an energy trade which have replaced bilateral contract deals between producers and consumers. Futures contracts are standardized contracts traded on exchanges. Buyer agrees to buy certain quantity of stock for an agreed upon price and with some future delivery date. Option is a contract which gives a buyer the option of the right to buy (or sell, depending on the option an asset at predetermined price and at a later date. Stocks price risk can be managed with the purchase and selling futures and options contracts. This paper deals with futures and options energy markets and their market strategies.

  8. OPEC charts course for future oil market

    Subroto, H.E.

    1992-01-01

    The author says OPEC is an economic organization with a simple mission: to provide a stable and reliable supply of oil to its customers and assure a fair return to its producers. When OPEC was formed in 1960, he recalls multinational oil companies dominated the oil market. Their operations were highly integrated from well to pump, and they kept oil prices low to fuel economic growth in prosperous industrialized countries. Host nations were rarely consulted in operations, and they reaped only minimal return for their black gold. OPEC changed all that. Today, OPEC's 13 member countries control their own oil industries, and some even own sizeable investments in the downstream sectors of consuming countries. To meet its commitment for supplying the petroleum needs of industrialized nations by the turn of the century, the author estimates OPEC will need to increase production capacity by about 40% at a cost well above what member countries can afford alone

  9. How equity markets view heavy oil

    Janisch, M. L. [Nesbitt Burns Research, Toronto, ON (Canada)

    1996-12-31

    Factors that influence the equity market in investment decisions vis-a-vis the oil sands/heavy oil industry were reviewed. The importance of financing methods (debt, royalty trusts, common equity), liquidity of investments, absolute vs. relative performance, comparative economics vis-a-vis conventional oil producers, oil prices, operating cost drivers (technology, natural gas costs, cost/availability of diluent), transportation and refining capacity, were summarized. In the final analysis, consistent economic success on a large scale, combined with an assessment of available alternatives, were considered to be the most likely motivators for portfolio managers. As a cautionary note, it was noted that traditionally, oil and gas investors have not been known to be in the forefront to invest in research and development.

  10. How equity markets view heavy oil

    Janisch, M. L.

    1996-01-01

    Factors that influence the equity market in investment decisions vis-a-vis the oil sands/heavy oil industry were reviewed. The importance of financing methods (debt, royalty trusts, common equity), liquidity of investments, absolute vs. relative performance, comparative economics vis-a-vis conventional oil producers, oil prices, operating cost drivers (technology, natural gas costs, cost/availability of diluent), transportation and refining capacity, were summarized. In the final analysis, consistent economic success on a large scale, combined with an assessment of available alternatives, were considered to be the most likely motivators for portfolio managers. As a cautionary note, it was noted that traditionally, oil and gas investors have not been known to be in the forefront to invest in research and development

  11. Crude oil prices: Are our oil markets too tight?

    Simmons, M.R.

    1997-01-01

    The answer to the question posed in the title is that tightness in the market will surely prevail through 1997. And as discussed herein, with worldwide demand expected to continue to grow, there will be a strong call on extra oil supply. Meeting those demands, however, will not be straightforward--as many observers wrongly believe--considering the industry's practice of maintaining crude stocks at ''Just in time'' inventory levels. Further, impact will be felt from the growing rig shortage, particularly for deepwater units, and down-stream capacity limits. While these factors indicate 1997 should be another good year for the service industry, it is difficult to get any kind of consensus view from the oil price market. With most observers' information dominated by the rarely optimistic futures price of crude, as reflected by the NYMEX, the important fact is that oil prices have remained stable for three years and increased steadily through 1996

  12. Global Trends and Development Prospects for Oil and the Oil Products Market

    Maria Dorozhkina

    2006-03-01

    Full Text Available This article discusses the important issue of the development of the global market of oil and oil products. It offers an overview of how this market was formed and its current status, classification, location and potential of countries in the oil and oil processing business. It analyzes the Ukrainian oil products market. The article discusses the shortcomings and strategic areas for the development of Ukraine’s oil transport system. It presents an optimum method for creating integration groups in order to develop the oil processing business in Ukraine for the future. The article considers the main trends and outlines development prospects for the global oil and oil products market.

  13. The Asia-Pacific oil market : prospects for Canadian oil

    Fesharaki, F.

    2004-01-01

    The Asia-Pacific region is among the fastest growing oil markets for which analysts predict healthy growth rates due to high energy demands from developing countries such as China. Increased oil demand will mean new refining capacity needs and increased supplies of crude oil. The indigenous crude supply in the Asia-Pacific region is limited and unable to meet the region's needs. Imports are therefore expected to rise continuously. Although the Middle East will continue to be the dominant player in meeting these growing oil needs, Canada has an opportunity to diversify the supply source and play a significant role in meeting the energy needs of the Asia-Pacific region. tabs., figs

  14. Market brief : the oil and gas market in Bolivia

    NONE

    2004-03-01

    This report presents a market overview of the oil and gas sector in Bolivia and describes the potential for Canadian suppliers to enter into joint ventures to establish local production facilities and transfer technology expertise. Bolivia has an estimated 54.9 trillion cubic feet of natural gas reserves and 440.5 million barrels of proven oil reserves. The main hope for future economic growth in Bolivia hinges on increasing natural gas exports. Opportunities for Canadian companies exist in exploration, production and pipeline construction. There is also a demand for drilling machinery equipment, pipeline components and services for the expansion of the proposed Bolivia-Brazil pipeline. The largest energy company in Bolivia is Repsol YPF which operates through its subsidiary Empress Petrolera Andina. The largest end-users of oil and gas equipment and services include domestic upstream operators and international oil majors and international exploration and production companies. This report describes the key factors shaping market growth along with the competitive environment, local capabilities, international competition and the Canadian position. Considerations for market-entry in Bolivia were also outlined.

  15. Simulation of thin-film deodorizers in palm oil refining

    Ceriani, Roberta; Meirelles, Antonio J.A.; Gani, Rafiqul

    2010-01-01

    As the need for healthier fats and oils (natural vitamin and trans fat contents) and interest in biofuels are growing, many changes in the world's vegetable oil market are driving the oil industry to developing new technologies and recycling traditional ones. Computational simulation is widely used...... in the chemical and petrochemical industries as a tool for optimization and design of (new) processes, but that is not the case for the edible oil industry. Thin-film deodorizers are novel equipment developed for steam deacidification of vegetable oils, and no work on the simulation of this type of equipment...... could be found in the open literature. This paper tries to fill this gap by presenting results from the study of the effect of processing variables, such as temperature, pressure and percentage of stripping steam, in the final quality of product (deacidified palm oil) in terms of final oil acidity...

  16. Oil sands market and transportation solutions

    Sandahl, R.

    2004-01-01

    This presentation outlined the immense potential of the western Canadian oil sands reserves. Recoverable reserves have been estimated at 180 billion barrels, with production forecasts estimated at 5 million barrels per day by 2030. Resource development is occurring at a time when the world's largest oil importer is increasing supplies through concern for security of supply. The second and third largest oil importers in the world are experiencing economic and energy demand growth. These factors underscore the motivation for rapid growth of the Western Canadian Oil Sands reserves. One of the challenges that must be addressed is to ensure that incremental markets for the increased production are accessed. Another challenge is to ensure adequate infrastructure in terms of pipeline capacity to ensure deliverability of the product. tabs., figs

  17. Crude oil spot market pricing: Pearsonian analysis of crude oil spot market prices

    Akinnusi, Ayo

    1994-01-01

    This paper presents a brief overview of crude oil pricing before describing a study of sets of 1991 spot market prices, and examining Pearson's model. Empirical distribution characteristics for 14 crude oils are tabulated, and skewness-kurtosis relationship and implication are considered. (UK)

  18. Market Brief : Turkey oil and gas pipelines

    2001-08-01

    This report presented some quick facts about oil and gas pipelines in Turkey and presented opportunities for trade. The key players and customers in the oil and gas sector were described along with an export check list. Turkey is looking into becoming an energy bridge between oil and gas producing countries in the Middle East, Central Asia and Europe. The oil and gas sectors are dominated by the Turkish Petroleum Corporation, a public enterprise dealing with exploration and production, and the State Pipeline Corporation which deals with energy transmission. They are also the key buyers of oil and gas equipment in Turkey. There are several pipelines connecting countries bordering the Caspian Sea. Opportunities exist in the areas of engineering consulting as well as contracting services for oil and gas pipeline transmission and distribution. Other opportunities lie in the area of pipeline construction, rehabilitation, materials, equipment, installation, and supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) systems. Currently, the major players are suppliers from Italy, Germany, France, United States and Japan. Turkey has no trade barriers and imported equipment and materials are not subjected to any restriction. The oil and gas market in Turkey expected in increase by an average annual growth rate of 15 per cent from 2001 to 2003. A brief description of pipeline projects in Turkey was presented in this report along with a list of key contacts and support services. 25 refs., 1 append

  19. Volatility persistence in crude oil markets

    Charles, Amélie; Darné, Olivier

    2014-01-01

    Financial market participants and policy-makers can benefit from a better understanding of how shocks can affect volatility over time. This study assesses the impact of structural changes and outliers on volatility persistence of three crude oil markets – Brent, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) – between January 2, 1985 and June 17, 2011. We identify outliers using a new semi-parametric test based on conditional heteroscedasticity models. These large shocks can be associated with particular event patterns, such as the invasion of Kuwait by Iraq, the Operation Desert Storm, the Operation Desert Fox, and the Global Financial Crisis as well as OPEC announcements on production reduction or US announcements on crude inventories. We show that outliers can bias (i) the estimates of the parameters of the equation governing volatility dynamics; (ii) the regularity and non-negativity conditions of GARCH-type models (GARCH, IGARCH, FIGARCH and HYGARCH); and (iii) the detection of structural breaks in volatility, and thus the estimation of the persistence of the volatility. Therefore, taking into account the outliers on the volatility modelling process may improve the understanding of volatility in crude oil markets. - Highlights: • We study the impact of outliers on volatility persistence of crude oil markets. • We identify outliers and patches of outliers due to specific events. • We show that outliers can bias (i) the estimates of the parameters of GARCH models, (ii) the regularity and non-negativity conditions of GARCH-type models, (iii) the detection of structural breaks in volatility of crude oil markets

  20. Oil markets and prices: the Brent market and the formation of world oil prices

    Horsnell, Paul; Mabro, Robert.

    1993-01-01

    The purpose of this book is to enhance our understanding of the complex working of the world petroleum market and of the formation of oil prices in international trade. It devotes particular attention to the Brent market which involves spot, physical forward and futures trading of a blend of North Sea crudes known as Brent which has become one of the most important markers for world oil prices. Because the Brent market is central the research presented here examines its relationship to the constellation of other oil markets: those which deal on a spot basis with the main export crude of Africa, the Gulf, the Far East and the North Sea, the market for Dubai, another marker crude, and that for West Texas Intermediate (WTI). Finally an analysis of pricing mechanisms used by OPEC and many non-OPEC exporting countries for their oil sales under term contracts and which use Brent prices as one of their references complete this study on oil markets and prices. (author)

  1. Asia-Pacific lube oil markets

    Yamaguchi, N.

    2001-01-01

    An overview of the Asia-Pacific (AP) lubricating oils market, its special characteristics, and its role in the global economy are presented. In the 'boom and bust' years of 1997-1999, the Asia-Pacific market was even bigger then the US market. For the short-term, the scenario is surplus capacity and poor margins, but in the long term there is enormous potential for growth. How fuel demand and quality is related to engine type is discussed. The three basic grades of baseoils are described, and the Asia-Pacific lube demand and the Asia-Pacific lube oil supply are discussed. There are 15 diagrams giving data on: (i) finished lubes in world markets as a percentage of total; (ii) how lube demand follows GDP per capita in Asia; (iii) AP baseoil capacity relationships; (iv) AP baseoil disposition by end use; (v) AP changing shares of baseoil demand; (vi) AP finished lube demand by subregion; (vii) AP finished lube demand growth, indexed; (viii) AP baseoil capacity by region; Singapore baseoil vs. Dubai crude prices, 1992-99; (ix) Singapore baseoil vs. crude prices, 1992-99; (x) AP baseoil deficit moved to surplus; (xi) AP baseoil production; (xii) East Asia net percentage change in lube sales, 1997-1999. (xiii) Southeast Asia net percentage change in lube sales, 1997-1999; (xiv) South East Asia and Australia net percentage change in lube sales, 1997-1999 and (xv) Asia-Pacific major lube marketers

  2. Economics of palm oil marketing in Owerri, Imo State, Nigeria ...

    Economics of palm oil marketing in Owerri, Imo State, Nigeria. ... Data on trades socio economic factors, marketing cost and marketing margin were collected from 80 traders randomly selected from the ... EMAIL FULL TEXT EMAIL FULL TEXT

  3. Investigating price clustering in the oil futures market

    Narayan, Paresh Kumar [School of Accounting, Economics and Finance, Deakin University (Australia); Narayan, Seema [School of Economics, Finance and Marketing, Royal Melbourne Institute of Technology, Melbourne (Australia); Popp, Stephan [Department of Economics, University of Duisburg-Essen (Germany)

    2011-01-15

    Price clustering can be a source of market inefficiency. It follows that searching for price clustering in markets have gone beyond share prices into real estate, interest rate, and exchange rate markets. In this paper, we extend this line of research to oil futures markets. In particular, we consider five different forms of oil futures contracts and test for evidence of price clustering. Our results reveal strong presence of price clustering in the oil futures market. This finding implies that price clustering can potentially be a source of oil market inefficiency, which can influence trading strategies. (author)

  4. Investigating price clustering in the oil futures market

    Narayan, Paresh Kumar; Narayan, Seema; Popp, Stephan

    2011-01-01

    Price clustering can be a source of market inefficiency. It follows that searching for price clustering in markets have gone beyond share prices into real estate, interest rate, and exchange rate markets. In this paper, we extend this line of research to oil futures markets. In particular, we consider five different forms of oil futures contracts and test for evidence of price clustering. Our results reveal strong presence of price clustering in the oil futures market. This finding implies that price clustering can potentially be a source of oil market inefficiency, which can influence trading strategies. (author)

  5. World oil and gas markets in 2005

    2006-01-01

    In front of insufficient production capacities, the petroleum and gas spot prices have won historical records in 2005. This paper analyzes this situation using the highlights of this exceptional year and concerning the producing countries (political situation), the oil and gas markets (exchange rates, demand, production capacity), the European quotations of petroleum products (automotive and domestic fuels), and the prices of petroleum products in France. (J.S.)

  6. Forecasting volatility of crude oil markets

    Kang, Sang Hoon; Kang, Sang-Mok; Yoon, Seong-Min

    2009-01-01

    This article investigates the efficacy of a volatility model for three crude oil markets - Brent, Dubai, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) - with regard to its ability to forecast and identify volatility stylized facts, in particular volatility persistence or long memory. In this context, we assess persistence in the volatility of the three crude oil prices using conditional volatility models. The CGARCH and FIGARCH models are better equipped to capture persistence than are the GARCH and IGARCH models. The CGARCH and FIGARCH models also provide superior performance in out-of-sample volatility forecasts. We conclude that the CGARCH and FIGARCH models are useful for modeling and forecasting persistence in the volatility of crude oil prices. (author)

  7. Forecasting volatility of crude oil markets

    Kang, Sang Hoon [Department of Business Administration, Gyeongsang National University, Jinju, 660-701 (Korea); Kang, Sang-Mok; Yoon, Seong-Min [Department of Economics, Pusan National University, Busan, 609-735 (Korea)

    2009-01-15

    This article investigates the efficacy of a volatility model for three crude oil markets - Brent, Dubai, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) - with regard to its ability to forecast and identify volatility stylized facts, in particular volatility persistence or long memory. In this context, we assess persistence in the volatility of the three crude oil prices using conditional volatility models. The CGARCH and FIGARCH models are better equipped to capture persistence than are the GARCH and IGARCH models. The CGARCH and FIGARCH models also provide superior performance in out-of-sample volatility forecasts. We conclude that the CGARCH and FIGARCH models are useful for modeling and forecasting persistence in the volatility of crude oil prices. (author)

  8. Russian oil prices: courting the world market

    Khartukov, E.M.

    1995-01-01

    The export and oil pricing of Russian crude was discussed. Russian crude and oil product exports are not yet wholly competitive with world oil markets. It was suggested that to do so, would be neither desirable nor actually possible at present. The reason for this is related to Russia's export duties regime and Russia's trade with its neighbouring countries which include the former Soviet republics. In the first half of 1995, the average border price of crude destined for those countries was US$75.04/tonne as opposed to US$114.77/tonne for crude exported to 'far-abroad', hard-currency markets. A breakdown of Russia's export duties for liquid fuels and a typical breakdown of export and domestic prices for Russian oil was provided. Russian crude is considerably under-priced mainly because of the poor state of the national refining industry which is in need of radical modernization. It was suggested that instead of globalization, it would be more appropriate to redirect the priorities of Russian energy policy towards defining optimal use of Russia's available energy potential, and rationalizing its domestic price structure first, which is the root cause of the national price problem. 5 refs., 5 tabs., 2 figs

  9. Preference for olive oil consumption in the Spanish local market

    Bernabéu, R.; Díaz, M.

    2016-07-01

    It is becoming ever more important for the olive oil industry in Spain to adopt a business strategy based on client orientation. In this sense, the objective of this paper is to identify the preferences of olive oil consumers and propose a series of business strategies for the producing sector. The methodology consisted in a survey of 404 olive oil consumers during the months of January and February 2013, whose preferences were determined through several multivariate techniques (conjoint analysis, consumer segmentation and a simulation of market share). The preferred olive oil is low priced, extra virgin and organic. The type of bottle does not appear to be relevant in the buying decision process, although it might be a factor in increasing market share. The current economic crisis has resulted in the emergence of two consumer segments; 67.1% of consumers selected the olive oil they buy on the basis of price and 32.9% were guided by the product’s specific attributes, which include, for example, organic production, which can be another differentiating element for producing companies.

  10. Preference for olive oil consumption in the Spanish local market

    Bernabéu, R.; Díaz, M.

    2016-01-01

    It is becoming ever more important for the olive oil industry in Spain to adopt a business strategy based on client orientation. In this sense, the objective of this paper is to identify the preferences of olive oil consumers and propose a series of business strategies for the producing sector. The methodology consisted in a survey of 404 olive oil consumers during the months of January and February 2013, whose preferences were determined through several multivariate techniques (conjoint analysis, consumer segmentation and a simulation of market share). The preferred olive oil is low priced, extra virgin and organic. The type of bottle does not appear to be relevant in the buying decision process, although it might be a factor in increasing market share. The current economic crisis has resulted in the emergence of two consumer segments; 67.1% of consumers selected the olive oil they buy on the basis of price and 32.9% were guided by the product’s specific attributes, which include, for example, organic production, which can be another differentiating element for producing companies.

  11. Preference for olive oil consumption in the Spanish local market

    Rodolfo Bernabéu

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available It is becoming ever more important for the olive oil industry in Spain to adopt a business strategy based on client orientation. In this sense, the objective of this paper is to identify the preferences of olive oil consumers and propose a series of business strategies for the producing sector. The methodology consisted in a survey of 404 olive oil consumers during the months of January and February 2013, whose preferences were determined through several multivariate techniques (conjoint analysis, consumer segmentation and a simulation of market share. The preferred olive oil is low priced, extra virgin and organic. The type of bottle does not appear to be relevant in the buying decision process, although it might be a factor in increasing market share. The current economic crisis has resulted in the emergence of two consumer segments; 67.1% of consumers selected the olive oil they buy on the basis of price and 32.9% were guided by the product’s specific attributes, which include, for example, organic production, which can be another differentiating element for producing companies.

  12. Using Simulations in the Marketing Classroom

    Kietzmann, Jan; Pitt, Leyland

    2016-01-01

    This special issue of "Journal of Marketing Education" was intended to engage as broad a perspective on simulations in the marketing classroom as possible. While some of the articles deal with the use of computerized marketing simulations, there are also articles that view simulations as imitating and pretending. The evidence from the…

  13. Alberta oil sands crudes : upgrading and marketing

    Ashar, M.

    2008-01-01

    Open pit mining and in situ techniques, such as steam stimulation, are used to recover Alberta's bitumen and heavy oil resources, which have higher viscosities than conventional hydrocarbons. The bitumen is typically upgraded to synthetic crude oil (SCO). In the simplest processing scheme, the bitumen is blended with diluent for ease in pipeline transport and then processed at refineries with upgrading facilities. The bitumen is also upgraded to light SCO at world-scale upgraders in Alberta. The SCO is then processed at refineries in downstream markets. The 2 categories of upgrading, notably primary and secondary upgrading, were described in this article along with technology options for both categories. Slurry hydrocracking is regarded as the most interesting emerging residual fuel upgrading technology. It combines special catalyst mixes with the latest slurry reactor designs as well as innovative catalyst capture and recycle schemes to produce very high conversions and potentially superior upgrading economics. The increase in volume and rate of SCO from Alberta provides refiners in the oil sands marketing sector an unprecedented choice of opportunities to improve profitability. Key trends indicate that production will increase substantially from 2008 to 2030. 5 figs

  14. Alberta oil sands crudes : upgrading and marketing

    Ashar, M. [Suncor Energy, Fort McMurray, AB (Canada)

    2008-05-15

    Open pit mining and in situ techniques, such as steam stimulation, are used to recover Alberta's bitumen and heavy oil resources, which have higher viscosities than conventional hydrocarbons. The bitumen is typically upgraded to synthetic crude oil (SCO). In the simplest processing scheme, the bitumen is blended with diluent for ease in pipeline transport and then processed at refineries with upgrading facilities. The bitumen is also upgraded to light SCO at world-scale upgraders in Alberta. The SCO is then processed at refineries in downstream markets. The 2 categories of upgrading, notably primary and secondary upgrading, were described in this article along with technology options for both categories. Slurry hydrocracking is regarded as the most interesting emerging residual fuel upgrading technology. It combines special catalyst mixes with the latest slurry reactor designs as well as innovative catalyst capture and recycle schemes to produce very high conversions and potentially superior upgrading economics. The increase in volume and rate of SCO from Alberta provides refiners in the oil sands marketing sector an unprecedented choice of opportunities to improve profitability. Key trends indicate that production will increase substantially from 2008 to 2030. 5 figs.

  15. Oil and gas market developments in Turkey

    Kaygusuz, K.

    2003-01-01

    Turkey's strategic location makes it a natural 'energy bridge' between major oil and gas producing areas in the Middle East and Caspian Sea regions on one hand and consumer markets in Europe on the other. Oil consumption has increased in recent years in Turkey, and this trend is expected to continue, with growth of 2-3% annually in coming years. The annual oil consumption of the country is around 31.3 million tons, while 83% of total consumption is supplied from imports and only 17% is supplied from indigenous production. Oil provides around 43% of Turkey's total energy requirements, but its share is declining (as the share of natural gas rises). On the other hand, due to diversification efforts of energy sources, use of natural gas was newly introduced into the Turkish economy in 1987 and has been growing rapidly. Turkey's natural gas reserves seem limited and current gas production in the country meets 2.8% of domestic consumption requirements. The annual natural gas consumption of Turkey is around 14.7 billion m 3 and is assumed to increase by 12% per annum. Turkish natural gas use is projected to increase dramatically in coming years, with the prime consumers expected to be industry and power plants. Turkey has chosen natural gas as the preferred fuel for the massive amount of new power plant capacity to be added in coming years. (Author)

  16. Southeast Asian oil markets and refining

    Yamaguchi, N.D. [FACTS, Inc., Honolulu, Hawaii (United States)

    1999-09-01

    An overview of the Southeast Asian oil markets and refining is presented concentrating on Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore and Thailand refiners. Key statistics of the refiners in this region are tabulated. The demand and the quality of Indonesian, Malaysian, Philippine, Singapore and Thai petroleum products are analysed. Crude distillation unit capacity trends in the Southeastern Asian refining industry are discussed along with cracking to distillation ratios, refining in these countries, and the impact of changes in demand and refining on the product trade.

  17. Southeast Asian oil markets and refining

    Yamaguchi, N.D.

    1999-01-01

    An overview of the Southeast Asian oil markets and refining is presented concentrating on Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore and Thailand refiners. Key statistics of the refiners in this region are tabulated. The demand and the quality of Indonesian, Malaysian, Philippine, Singapore and Thai petroleum products are analysed. Crude distillation unit capacity trends in the Southeastern Asian refining industry are discussed along with cracking to distillation ratios, refining in these countries, and the impact of changes in demand and refining on the product trade

  18. Oil and stock market volatility: A multivariate stochastic volatility perspective

    Vo, Minh

    2011-01-01

    This paper models the volatility of stock and oil futures markets using the multivariate stochastic volatility structure in an attempt to extract information intertwined in both markets for risk prediction. It offers four major findings. First, the stock and oil futures prices are inter-related. Their correlation follows a time-varying dynamic process and tends to increase when the markets are more volatile. Second, conditioned on the past information, the volatility in each market is very persistent, i.e., it varies in a predictable manner. Third, there is inter-market dependence in volatility. Innovations that hit either market can affect the volatility in the other market. In other words, conditioned on the persistence and the past volatility in their respective markets, the past volatility of the stock (oil futures) market also has predictive power over the future volatility of the oil futures (stock) market. Finally, the model produces more accurate Value-at-Risk estimates than other benchmarks commonly used in the financial industry. - Research Highlights: → This paper models the volatility of stock and oil futures markets using the multivariate stochastic volatility model. → The correlation between the two markets follows a time-varying dynamic process which tends to increase when the markets are more volatile. → The volatility in each market is very persistent. → Innovations that hit either market can affect the volatility in the other market. → The model produces more accurate Value-at-Risk estimates than other benchmarks commonly used in the financial industry.

  19. Derivative markets, speculation and oil prices

    Babusiaux, D.; Lasserre, F.; Pierru, A.

    2010-01-01

    Recent movements in oil prices have been ascribed by a number of analysts and political leaders not to market fundamentals but to the speculative positions taken by financial investors in derivatives markets. Various economists including Nobel Prize Paul Krugman believe however that the constitution of stocks is a necessary element for speculation, a feature that was not very evident during the sudden price increase in 2008; but these points of view are not entirely incompatible. Various explanations can be put forward, among which the most important is demand inertia. On the very short run, demand price elasticity is significantly lower than that usually calculated for the short term, which can significantly reduce the impact - on stocks - of a temporary price increase provoked by financial investors' behavior. (authors)

  20. OIL PRICES AND THE KUWAITI AND THE SAUDI STOCK MARKETS

    Samih Antoine Azar

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is to test the impact of oil price shocks on the stock markets of the two biggest and most liquid GCC equity markets, those of Kuwait and Saudi Arabia. It is expected that the two stock markets react similarly to oil price shocks. Actually the results show heterogeneity in responses. While there is prima facie evidence that both stock markets are influenced positively and linearly by oil price shocks, this evidence disappears when additional variables are added to the regressions. With the larger specification oil price shocks do not impact, neither linearly or non-linearly, Kuwaiti stock markets. By contrast Saudi markets react non-linearly to both oil price shocks and shocks in the US S&P 500. The only common feature for both equity markets is the positive relation with the shocks in the US S&P 500.

  1. Pipeline capacity and heavy oil markets

    Scott, G.R.

    1993-01-01

    Aspects of transporting heavy crude to markets from Canadian sources are discussed, with reference to pipeline expansion, western Canadian crude supply, and exports to various Petroleum Administration for Defense Districts (PADDs) in the USA. Pipeline expansions have been proposed by Interprovincial Pipeline, Trans Mountain Pipeline, Rangeland, and Wascana, and some of these proposals are in the review stage. Western Canadian crude supply is expected to peak at 1.9 million bbl/d in 1996. An increase in heavy crude supply is expected but this increase will not be sufficient to offset a decline in light crude supply. Adequate pipeline capacity should exist with the Interprovincial expansion volume of 170,000 bbl/d and the Trans Mountain expansion of 38,000 bbl/d forecast to be in place by 1995. Canadian crude exports to the USA have steadily increased since 1989, and heavy crude exports have grown an average of 20,000 bbl/d each year. In PADD Region IV, oil production is declining and ca 20,000 bbl/d of heavy crude will be needed by the year 2000; additional pipeline capacity will be required. In PADD Region II, Canadian heavy crude imports are ca 390,000 bbl/d and further market opportunities exist, after the Interprovincial expansion is complete. When the various combinations of possible pipeline expansions or reversals are considered, a range of heavy crude near-term growth potentials is obtained in which Canadian heavy oil would displace offshore heavy oil supplied to USA refineries. This potential is seen to range from 35,000 bbl/d to 200,000 bbl/d. 7 refs., 20 figs., 3 tabs

  2. Extreme Value Theory and Value at Risk. Application to oil market

    Marimoutou, Velayoudoum; Raggad, Bechir; Trabelsi, Abdelwahed

    2009-01-01

    Recent increases in energy prices, especially oil prices, have become a principal concern for consumers, corporations, and governments. Most analysts believe that oil price fluctuations have considerable consequences on economic activity. Oil markets have become relatively free, resulting in a high degree of oil-price volatility and generating radical changes to world energy and oil industries. Consequently, oil markets are naturally vulnerable to significant high price shifts. An example of such a case is the oil embargo crisis of 1973. In this newly created climate, protection against market risk has become a necessity. Value at Risk (VaR) measures risk exposure at a given probability level and is very important for risk management. Appealing aspects of Extreme Value Theory (EVT) have made convincing arguments for its use in managing energy price risks. In this paper, we model VaR for long and short trading positions in oil market by applying both unconditional and conditional EVT models to forecast Value at Risk. These models are compared to the performances of other well-known modelling techniques, such as GARCH, Historical Simulation and Filtered Historical Simulation. Both conditional EVT and Filtered Historical Simulation procedures offer a major improvement over the conventional methods. Furthermore, GARCH(1, 1)-t model may provide equally good results which are comparable to two combined procedures. Finally, our results confirm the importance of filtering process for the success of standard approaches. (author)

  3. Extreme Value Theory and Value at Risk. Application to oil market

    Marimoutou, Velayoudoum [GREQAM, Universite de la Mediterranee, Institut Francais de Pondichery (France); Raggad, Bechir; Trabelsi, Abdelwahed [BESTMOD, Institut Superieur de Gestion de Tunis (Tunisia)

    2009-07-15

    Recent increases in energy prices, especially oil prices, have become a principal concern for consumers, corporations, and governments. Most analysts believe that oil price fluctuations have considerable consequences on economic activity. Oil markets have become relatively free, resulting in a high degree of oil-price volatility and generating radical changes to world energy and oil industries. Consequently, oil markets are naturally vulnerable to significant high price shifts. An example of such a case is the oil embargo crisis of 1973. In this newly created climate, protection against market risk has become a necessity. Value at Risk (VaR) measures risk exposure at a given probability level and is very important for risk management. Appealing aspects of Extreme Value Theory (EVT) have made convincing arguments for its use in managing energy price risks. In this paper, we model VaR for long and short trading positions in oil market by applying both unconditional and conditional EVT models to forecast Value at Risk. These models are compared to the performances of other well-known modelling techniques, such as GARCH, Historical Simulation and Filtered Historical Simulation. Both conditional EVT and Filtered Historical Simulation procedures offer a major improvement over the conventional methods. Furthermore, GARCH(1, 1)-t model may provide equally good results which are comparable to two combined procedures. Finally, our results confirm the importance of filtering process for the success of standard approaches. (author)

  4. Oil price and financial markets: Multivariate dynamic frequency analysis

    Creti, Anna; Ftiti, Zied; Guesmi, Khaled

    2014-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to study the degree of interdependence between oil price and stock market index into two groups of countries: oil-importers and oil-exporters. To this end, we propose a new empirical methodology allowing a time-varying dynamic correlation measure between the stock market index and the oil price series. We use the frequency approach proposed by Priestley and Tong (1973), that is the evolutionary co-spectral analysis. This method allows us to distinguish between short-run and medium-run dependence. In order to complete our study by analysing long-run dependence, we use the cointegration procedure developed by Engle and Granger (1987). We find that interdependence between the oil price and the stock market is stronger in exporters' markets than in the importers' ones. - Highlights: • A new time-varying measure for the stock markets and oil price relationship in different horizons. • We propose a new empirical methodology: multivariate frequency approach. • We propose a comparison between oil importing and exporting countries. • We show that oil is not always countercyclical with respect to stock markets. • When high oil prices originate from supply shocks, oil is countercyclical with stock markets

  5. Do structural oil-market shocks affect stock prices?

    Apergis, Nicholas; Miller, Stephen M.

    2009-01-01

    This paper investigates how explicit structural shocks that characterize the endogenous character of oil price changes affect stock-market returns in a sample of eight countries - Australia, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States. For each country, the analysis proceeds in two steps. First, modifying the procedure of Kilian [Not All Oil Price Shocks are Alike: Disentangling Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market. American Economic Review.], we employ a vector error-correction or vector autoregressive model to decompose oil-price changes into three components: oil-supply shocks, global aggregate-demand shocks, and global oil-demand shocks. The last component relates to specific idiosyncratic features of the oil market, such as changes in the precautionary demand concerning the uncertainty about the availability of future oil supplies. Second, recovering the oil-supply shocks, global aggregate-demand shocks, and global oil-demand shocks from the first analysis, we then employ a vector autoregressive model to determine the effects of these structural shocks on the stock market returns in our sample of eight countries. We find that international stock market returns do not respond in a large way to oil market shocks. That is, the significant effects that exist prove small in magnitude. (author)

  6. Linkages between the markets for crude oil and the markets for refined products

    Didziulis, V.S.

    1990-01-01

    To understand the crude oil price determination process it is necessary to extend the analysis beyond the markets for petroleum. Crude oil prices are determined in two closely related markets: the markets for crude oil and the markets for refined products. An econometric-linear programming model was developed to capture the linkages between the markets for crude oil and refined products. In the LP refiners maximize profits given crude oil supplies, refining capacities, and prices of refined products. The objective function is profit maximization net of crude oil prices. The shadow price on crude oil gives the netback price. Refined product prices are obtained from the econometric models. The model covers the free world divided in five regions. The model is used to analyze the impacts on the markets of policies that affect crude oil supplies, the demands for refined products, and the refining industry. For each scenario analyzed the demand for crude oil is derived from the equilibrium conditions in the markets for products. The demand curve is confronted with a supply curve which maximizes revenues providing an equilibrium solution for both crude oil and product markets. The model also captures crude oil price differentials by quality. The results show that the demands for crude oil are different across regions due to the structure of the refining industries and the characteristics of the demands for refined products. Changes in the demands for products have a larger impact on the markets than changes in the refining industry. Since markets for refined products and crude oil are interrelated they can't be analyzed individually if an accurate and complete assessment of a policy is to be made. Changes in only one product market in one region affect the other product markets and the prices of crude oil

  7. Market analysis of shale oil co-products. Appendices

    1980-12-01

    Data are presented in these appendices on the marketing and economic potential for soda ash, aluminia, and nahcolite as by-products of shale oil production. Appendices 1 and 2 contain data on the estimated capital and operating cost of an oil shales/mineral co-products recovery facility. Appendix 3 contains the marketing research data.

  8. Modelling the oil producers: Capturing oil industry knowledge in a behavioural simulation model

    Morecroft, J.D.W.; Van der Heijden, K.A.J.M.

    1992-01-01

    A group of senior managers and planners from a major oil company met to discuss the changing structure of the oil industry with the purpose of improving group understanding of oil market behaviour for use in global scenarios. This broad ranging discussion led to a system dynamics simulation model of the oil producers. The model produced new insights into the power and stability of OPEC (the major oil producers' organization), the dynamic of oil prices, and the investment opportunities of non-OPEC producers. The paper traces the model development process, starting from group discussions and leading to working simulation models. Particular attention is paid to the methods used to capture team knowledge and to ensure that the computer models reflected opinions and ideas from the meetings. The paper describes how flip-chart diagrams were used to collect ideas about the logic of the principal producers' production decisions. A sub-group of the project team developed and tested an algebraic model. The paper shows partial model simulations used to build confidence and a sense of ownership in the algebraic formulations. Further simulations show how the full model can stimulate thinking about producers' behaviour and oil prices. The paper concludes with comments on the model building process. 11 figs., 37 refs

  9. Microbial Enhanced Oil Recovery - Advanced Reservoir Simulation

    Nielsen, Sidsel Marie

    the water phase. The biofilm formation implies that the concentration of bacteria near the inlet increases. In combination with surfactant production, the biofilm results in a higher surfactant concentration in the initial part of the reservoir. The oil that is initially bypassed in connection...... simulator. In the streamline simulator, the effect of gravity is introduced using an operator splitting technique. The gravity effect stabilizes oil displacement causing markedly improvement of the oil recovery, when the oil density becomes relatively low. The general characteristics found for MEOR in one......-dimensional simulations are also demonstrated both in two and three dimensions. Overall, this MEOR process conducted in a heterogeneous reservoir also produces more oil compared to waterflooding, when the simulations are run in multiple dimensions. The work presented in this thesis has resulted in two publications so far....

  10. Medium-Term Oil Market Report (MTOMR) 2008

    NONE

    2008-07-15

    Why have oil prices hit US$140 per barrel? How strong will oil demand be in the upcoming years? Will supply of crude oil, natural gas liquids and biofuels be sufficient to meet this future demand? And, no less crucially, what investments in refining capacity and technology can we expect and will these help ease some of the imbalance in strained oil product markets? The Medium-Term Oil Market Report (now in its third year) published by the International Energy Agency (IEA) has become a new benchmark, complementing the short-term market analysis provided in the IEA Oil Market Report. This year's edition reappraises all upstream and downstream projects worldwide, setting them against a revised demand forecast and expanding the time horizon to 2013. Special features this year include in-depth analyses of price formation, transport trends, non-OECD economies, non-OPEC production decline, project slippage, key crude export pipeline developments and a stronger emphasis on product supply bottlenecks. An essential report for all policy makers, market analysts, energy experts and anyone interested in understanding and following oil market trends, the Medium-Term Oil Market Report is a further element of the strong commitment of the IEA to improving and expanding the quality, timeliness and accuracy of energy data and analysis.

  11. Medium-Term Oil Market Report (MTOMR) 2008

    NONE

    2008-07-15

    Why have oil prices hit US$140 per barrel? How strong will oil demand be in the upcoming years? Will supply of crude oil, natural gas liquids and biofuels be sufficient to meet this future demand? And, no less crucially, what investments in refining capacity and technology can we expect and will these help ease some of the imbalance in strained oil product markets? The Medium-Term Oil Market Report (now in its third year) published by the International Energy Agency (IEA) has become a new benchmark, complementing the short-term market analysis provided in the IEA Oil Market Report. This year's edition reappraises all upstream and downstream projects worldwide, setting them against a revised demand forecast and expanding the time horizon to 2013. Special features this year include in-depth analyses of price formation, transport trends, non-OECD economies, non-OPEC production decline, project slippage, key crude export pipeline developments and a stronger emphasis on product supply bottlenecks. An essential report for all policy makers, market analysts, energy experts and anyone interested in understanding and following oil market trends, the Medium-Term Oil Market Report is a further element of the strong commitment of the IEA to improving and expanding the quality, timeliness and accuracy of energy data and analysis.

  12. The outlook for the world and Australian oil markets

    Donaldson, K.; Fok, G.

    1996-01-01

    Global demand for oil is projected to continue its upward trend to 2000-1, with growth in the transport sector expected to underpin future increases in oil consumption. World oil consumption is projected to be matched by global production, keeping the average annual oil price relatively stable. In many countries, the diversion of oil revenue to other projects is threatening to constrain increases in production capacity, particularly in the OPEC countries. The encouragement of foreign investment in state oil industries is a likely method of easing the constraint. Australian exploration activity is rising steadily with the prospect of stable oil prices, expanding gas markets and the incentives provided by a number of recent discoveries. While the geographical pattern of Australian production has now changed, with Western Australian production exceeding Victoria production, Australia is expected to maintain its position in the world oil market as a significant producer, importer and exporter. (author). 6 figs., 23 refs

  13. Crude oil options market found to be efficient

    Anon.

    1992-01-01

    This paper reports that the U.S. crude oil options market operates efficiently and does not overreact. The authors, with the JFK School of Government, studied the crude oil options market under a Department of Energy grant. The current market was created in November 1986 when the New York Mercantile Exchange introduced an options contract for delivery of West Texas intermediate crude futures. it has grown greatly since then

  14. State of the art in oil market in the world

    Banks, F. E.

    2007-01-01

    Things move fast in the world of oil and unfortunately many events do not always receive an appropriate interpretation. The present update reviews the on-going oil peak debate, providing evidence against unjustified optimistic propositions, discussing the predictable shortage of energy materials and its influence on prices. Moreover, the return of OPEC to the oil market drivers seat and the irruption of state oil companies from exporting countries are also commented. (Author)

  15. Marketing opportunities and challenges for Canada's oil sands industry

    1995-01-01

    This report demonstrated that effective marketing of Canadian oil sands products has been vital to the success of the industry in the past. Future success was expected to depend on having efficient transportation systems for the industry's products, unrestricted access to markets, and a range of products can competitively meet the needs of specific markets and customs. 9 ills

  16. Utility residual fuel oil market conditions: An update

    Mueller, H.A. Jr.

    1992-01-01

    Planning for residual fuel oil usage and management remains an important part of the generation fuel planning and management function for many utilities. EPRI's Utility Planning Methods Center has maintained its analytical overview of the fuel oil markets as part of its overall fuel planning and management research program. This overview provides an update of recent fuel oil market directions. Several key events of the past year have had important implications for residual fuel oil markets. The key events have been the changes brought about by the Persian Gulf War and its aftermath, as well as continuing environmental policy developments. The Persian Gulf conflict has created renewed interest in reducing fuel oil use by utilities as part of an overall reduction in oil imports. The policy analysis performed to date has generally failed to properly evaluate utility industry capability. The Persian Gulf conflict has also resulted in an important change in the structure of international oil markets. The result of this policy-based change is likely to be a shift in oil pricing strategy. Finally, continued change in environmental requirements is continuing to shift utility residual oil requirements, but is also changing the nature of the US resid market itself

  17. Shale oil specialty markets: Screening survey for United States applications

    1987-12-01

    EG and G requested J. E. Sinor Consultants Inc. to carry out an initial screening study on the possibilities for producing specialty chemicals from oil shale. Raw shale oil is not an acceptable feedstock to refineries and there are not enough user of heavy fuel oil in the western oil shale region to provide a dependable market. The only alternatives are to hydrotreat the oil, or else ship it long distances to a larger market area. Either of these alternatives results in a cost penalty of several dollars per barrel. Instead of attempting to enter the large-volume petroleum products market, it was hypothesized that a small shale oil facility might be able to produce specialty chemicals with a high enough average value to absorb the high costs of shipping small quantities to distant markets and still provide a higher netback to the plant site than sales to the conventional petroleum products market. This approach, rather than attempting to refine shale oil or to modify its characteristics to satisfy the specifications for petroleum feedstocks or products, focuses instead on those particular characteristics which distinguish shale oil from petroleum, and attempts to identify applications which would justify a premium value for those distinctive characteristics. Because byproducts or specialty chemicals production has been a prominent feature of oil shale industries which have flourished for periods of time in various countries, a brief review of those industries provides a starting point for this study. 9 figs., 32 tabs.

  18. Efficiency of crude oil markets: Evidences from informational entropy analysis

    Ortiz-Cruz, Alejandro; Rodriguez, Eduardo; Ibarra-Valdez, Carlos; Alvarez-Ramirez, Jose

    2012-01-01

    The role of crude oil as the main energy source for the global economic activity has motivated the discussion about the dynamics and causes of crude oil price changes. An accurate understanding of the issue should provide important guidelines for the design of optimal policies and government budget planning. Using daily data for WTI over the period January 1986–March 2011, we analyze the evolution of the informational complexity and efficiency for the crude oil market through multiscale entropy analysis. The results indicated that the crude oil market is informationally efficient over the scrutinized period except for two periods that correspond to the early 1990s and late 2000s US recessions. Overall, the results showed that deregulation has improved the operation of the market in the sense of making returns less predictable. On the other hand, there is some evidence that the probability of having a severe US economic recession increases as the informational efficiency decreases, which indicates that returns from crude oil markets are less uncertain during economic downturns. - Highlights: ► Entropy concepts are used to characterize crude oil prices. ► An index of market efficiency is introduced. ► Except for periods of economic recession, the crude oil market is informationally efficient.

  19. Canadian oil sands : supply and potential for market growth

    Crandall, G.

    2004-01-01

    Canadian oil sands recoverable reserves rank second only to Saudi Arabia and present enormous potential, particularly through technological gains. This paper discussed the market potential for oil sands both globally and in North America. It was estimated that oil sands production would eventually surpass declining conventional production, increasing from 42 per cent of Western supply in 2002 to 78 per cent in 2015. Recoverable reserves were an estimated 174 billion barrels, with cumulative production at 4 billion barrels between 1967 to 2003. Statistics of U.S. and Canadian markets for crude oil were presented to the year 2020. A flow chart of oil sands products and market outlets was presented, as well as details of existing and potential markets for Canadian crude oil. Oil sands product dispositions were outlined, with the prediction that Asia may emerge as an incremental market. World crude oil production statistics were presented by type. World residual supply and demand estimates were presented, including details of conversion capacity and requirements for residual processing capacity in refineries and field upgraders. American refinery feedstocks were presented by type, with the identification of an increase in heavy crude runs. It was noted that recent pricing provided a strong incentive to add refining conversion capacity to process heavy oil. An outline of a study completed for the Alberta government and industry was presented, in which upgrading to light synthetic crude was determined as a base case. The value added to process bitumen beyond upgrading was discussed in relation to the upgrading of American refineries to process bitumen blends and synthetic crude. Potential cases for upgrading bitumen were presented, along with a comparison of capital costs. An overall economic comparison of projects was provided. Various measures to maximize markets for oil sands products in Alberta were presented. It was suggested that U.S. markets should absorb more new

  20. Multifractal detrended cross-correlations between crude oil market and Chinese ten sector stock markets

    Yang, Liansheng; Zhu, Yingming; Wang, Yudong; Wang, Yiqi

    2016-11-01

    Based on the daily price data of spot prices of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil and ten CSI300 sector indices in China, we apply multifractal detrended cross-correlation analysis (MF-DCCA) method to investigate the cross-correlations between crude oil and Chinese sector stock markets. We find that the strength of multifractality between WTI crude oil and energy sector stock market is the highest, followed by the strength of multifractality between WTI crude oil and financial sector market, which reflects a close connection between energy and financial market. Then we do vector autoregression (VAR) analysis to capture the interdependencies among the multiple time series. By comparing the strength of multifractality for original data and residual errors of VAR model, we get a conclusion that vector auto-regression (VAR) model could not be used to describe the dynamics of the cross-correlations between WTI crude oil and the ten sector stock markets.

  1. Is the world oil market 'one great pool'? A test

    Rodriguez, A.E.; Williams, M.D.

    1993-01-01

    In a recent paper (Weiner, 1991) it was argued that crude oil markets are regionalized, thus challenging the assertion that the world oil market is homogeneous. This argument bears on the effectiveness of various energy policies. It is argued that these policies should be analyzed using constructs such as antitrust markets, rather than in relation to an ad-hoc definition of regionalization like that used by Weiner. Regionalization and geographic antitrust markets, empirics, and policy implications of regional markets are discussed. By drawing clear parallels between the concept of regionalization and antitrust markets, it is shown that: due to Wiener's flawed methodological and empirical approach, it is not clear that crude oil markets are, in fact, regional; and policies that appear at first glance to require regional markets to be effective, may be explained even in a unified world market. Strong evidence is found in support of a unified world oil market. Some policy implications in the area of import taxes are discussed. 35 refs., 1 tab

  2. An analysis of factors affecting price volatility of the US oil market

    Yang, C.W.; Hwang, M.J.; Huang, B.N.

    2002-01-01

    This paper studies the price volatility of the crude oil market by examining the market structure of OPEC, the stable and unstable demand structure, and related elasticity of demand. In particular, the impacts of prosperity and recession of the world economy and the resulting demand shift on crude oil price are investigated. The error correction model is used to estimate the demand relations and related elasticity. The income effect on demand functions is evaluated to shed light on future prices. A simulation of potential oil prices under different scenarios on a cut of one million barrels per day by OPEC is evaluated. From our simulation, given the 4% cut in OPEC production, the oil price is expected to increase unless the recession is severe. The magnitude and scope of a price hike would be diminished if non-OPEC or domestic production were greatly expanded

  3. OPEC oil production and market fundamentals: a causality relationship

    Dahmani, A.; Al-Osaimy, M.H.

    2001-01-01

    This paper first establishes a statistical measurement for OPEC Member Countries' compliance levels with their respective quotas and then examines the correlations and the casual relationships between compliance levels and oil market fundamentals. The compliance level is measured by the deviation of the production level from the respective quota for OPEC Member Countries, and this is based on the Euclidean distance formula, while oil market fundamentals are represented by OECD oil demand and stock levels, and the OPEC Basket price and oil supply. Monthly data from January 1996 to June 2000 was used and two sub-periods considered, where the first sub-period was characterized by a low level of compliance and the second by a high level. The analytical results of correlations and causality showed different directions of relationships between compliance levels and oil market fundamentals. (author)

  4. Dynamic correlation between stock market and oil prices: The case of oil-importing and oil-exporting countries

    Filis, George; Degiannakis, S.; Floros, C.

    2011-01-01

    The paper investigates the time-varying correlation between stock market prices and oil prices for oil-importing and oil-exporting countries. A DCC-GARCH-GJR approach is employed to test the above hypothesis based on data from six countries; Oil-exporting: Canada, Mexico, Brazil and Oil-importing: USA, Germany, Netherlands. The contemporaneous correlation results show that i) although time-varying correlation does not differ for oil-importing and oil-exporting economies, ii) the correlation i...

  5. Energy swaps as profit motive instruments in oil markets

    Arshi, A.A.

    1992-01-01

    In this paper, I introduce oil swaps as financial instruments available to oil producers and to buyers of crude oil and products, and the positive effects they can provide for marketing profitability. In addition, I seek to underline the complementarity of oil swaps, emphasizing the benefits which can result from efficiently monitored use of such tools. I review the various criteria to be considered when implementing swap arrangements and I examine standard and non-standard examples which I believe to be of interest. Due to the unfortunate fact that exchange market liquidity is limited, I am of the opinion that producers, if they think fit, should start with only a limited amount of their availability covered by such swap arrangements. Nevertheless, I wish to draw the attention of producers and buyers of crude oil and oil products to the benefits of swap arrangements, as described in this paper. (author)

  6. Mideast crisis and pricing in the oil futures market

    Hamed, A.H.

    1992-01-01

    Futures prices and the corresponding expected future cash price on crude oil markets differ. The difference is hypothesized to be due to a time varying risk premium where risk is due to either cash price volatility, oil output volatility, or unanticipated oil price movement. And this risk is measured by the conditional variance of the forementioned sources of risk. Using the ARCH (Autoregressive Conditional Heterosckdasticity) model and its extensions this study addresses the determination of the time varying risk premium. Political unrest in the Mideast oil exporting countries is hypothesized to be a determinant of the time varying risk premium in the oil futures market. The empirical tests allow informative inferences to be drawn on the role of political unrest in pricing oil

  7. The European Gas and Oil Market: The Role of Norway

    Harbo, F.

    2008-01-01

    The research question of this paper is related to the role of Norway in the European gas and oil market. This study aims to give a presentation of the energy policy in Norway and Norwegian participation at the European level. The first chapter will introduce Norwegian relations with Europe. For the purpose of my research, I will focus mainly on Norwegian energy policy in the second chapter, presenting Norway's oil industry in chapter 2.1.; Norwegian gas production in chapter 2.2.; and the Norwegian electrical power system in chapter 2.3. The sub-chapter 2.4. will analyse in detail the activity of the largest Norwegian oil and gas company, StatoilHydro. The third chapter will be dedicated to Norway's green energy policy (wind, sun and water), etc. The fourth chapter looks at the European perspective and will examine the European strategic gas and oil market in a globalized world. The fifth chapter will present Norway's participation in the European gas and oil market. Such strategic research must also include a look at the European Union's (EU) energy market development between Russia and Norway, which will be presented in chapter six. And finally, Norway's contribution to the development of an EU energy policy in fighting climate change will be emphasised in chapter seven. This research will analyse the following central issues: - Norwegian oil industry, - Norwegian gas production, - Norwegian electrical power system, - Norwegian challenges in the European gas and oil market. (author)

  8. The interdependence among oil markets: Any discernible patterns?

    Osayimwese, I.

    1992-01-01

    A study is presented which tests a hypothesis about co-movement of oil prices in all regions, implying that markets are interdependent. The hypothesis is tested against the background of the structural changes that occurred in the oil industry during the last 20 years, using the concept of cointegration. These changes occurred mainly in response to the oil price hikes in the 1970s and the price collapse in 1986. Refinery upgrading and increased flexibility in buying and selling crude oil and products, as well as the continuing articulation of oil markets with a variety of specific instruments, are key elements of the transformation during the past 15-20 years. A framework for modelling market interdependence via three approaches is outlined, focusing on the approach that consists of exploring the univariate time-series characteristics of two or more random variables with a view to verifying that the variables tend to move together in the long term. To examine the empirical evidence for market interdependence, monthly observations on crude and product prices from three major spot markets are used. Cointegration tests show that spot and futures market prices for gas, oil and crudes move closely together in the long run. In particular, the key role played by price differences rather than absolute price levels as a market barometer is confirmed. A test of the law of one price between two markets for the same crude or product generally confirms the co-movement of prices. It is concluded that, globally, oil markets are integrated and indeed constitute one great pool. 29 refs., 4 figs., 4 tabs

  9. National Oil Companies and their role in international market

    2007-01-01

    Thirteen of the top 20 international helders of oil and gas reserves are either traditional national oil company (NOC) or newly privatised NOC. The growing importance of NOC in the international energy markets raises questions about emerging policies, objectives and priorities of these organizations since, historically, geopolitical and strategic aims in addition to purely commercial considerations are factored into their foreign investment decisions [it

  10. Expanding U.S. markets for Canadian crude oil

    Heath, M.; Angevine, G.; Chan, K.; Renne, G.; Stariha, J.; MacKay, E.

    1993-01-01

    The quantities and types of Canadian, U.S. and competing foreign crudes flowing into U.S. market regions and the potential to retain and/or expand Canadian crude oil sales in each of those markets, was studied. The various pipeline system expansion/construction proposals were reviewed. Findings of the study with respect to prospects for crude oil sales into each of the U.S. market regions were presented. Opportunities and constraints with regard to the potential for incremental crude oil sales into each of the U.S. market regions were detailed. The study concluded that there was a substantial market in the U.S. for incremental sales of Canadian crudes. Most of the refineries in the U.S. market regions were more flexible in terms of their crude diet than they were before the rationalization and restructuring of the industry began. The market for crude oil in the U.S. was shown to be one of the most competitive in the world and the most volatile. The study also revealed that there were risks associated with large additions to the capacity to ship crude oil by pipeline from Western Canada, given the uncertainties surrounding future supply. 4 refs., figs., tabs

  11. Asian-Pacific markets : a new strategy for Alberta oil

    Laureshen, C.J.; Du Plessis, D.; Xu, C.M.; Chung, K.H.

    2004-01-01

    Alberta's oil sands contain an estimated crude bitumen-in-place of nearly 2.5 trillion barrels. Production has increased to the point where it has overtaken non-conventional sources, and is expected to reach more than 2 million barrels per day by 2012, and over 5 million barrels per day by 2030. Although it is assumed that most of this production will be marketed in the United States, the industry is facing many constraints that could affect potential crude oil production and existing market share. The Asian-Pacific region is an obvious new market for Canadian heavy oil and bitumen due to an increasing demand for petroleum products in that region and the potential for reaching the California market with the same pipeline. This paper examined the following three criteria that will determine the success of any initiative to move Canadian crude oil to Asian-Pacific markets: (1) a sustainable supply of crude from Alberta; a pipeline to transport the crude to a deepwater port on the west coast; and, a guaranteed market at the other end. The feasibility of marketing Alberta heavy oil and bitumen to Asia was also discussed. 12 refs., 1 tab., 8 figs

  12. The oil market. Call on OPEC determines the oil price

    Kingma, D.; Mulder, M.

    2001-01-01

    Several scenarios are applied to determine the oil price for the medium-long term, based on the so-called 'call on OPEC'. The 'call on OPEC' is part of the demand for oil which has to supplied by OPEC. It is expected that the nominal oil price will be circa $24 per barrel in 2004, based on a global growth of 4%. 2 refs

  13. Medium-Term Oil Market Report (MTOMR) 2009

    NONE

    2009-06-29

    This fourth edition of the IEA Medium-Term Oil Market Report (MTOMR) confronts an economic landscape unrecognisable from that seen at the time of the release of the summer 2008 edition. Crude prices are now 55% lower as financial and economic meltdown have slashed demand, with worldwide contraction in oil use at levels not seen since the early 1980s. But how long will the downturn last, and what is the likely profile of global and regional demand recovery when economic rebound eventually takes root? Has almost a decade of rising prices and costs changed the demand-side blueprint and forced the world onto a lower oil intensity path for the period through 2014? Equally importantly, the report identifies the impact that weaker demand, low prices and a credit squeeze are having on supply-side investment - in upstream OPEC/non-OPEC supply, biofuels capacity and refining infrastructure alike. The 2009 edition of the MTOMR also delves into the issues of diversifying FSU crude exports, evolving crude and product qualities, the importance of petrochemical markets and perceptions on oil price formation in the down-cycle. Two demand scenarios are presented based on differing economic growth assumptions, with a lower non-OPEC supply scenario also accompanying the lower GDP case. Summary oil balances highlight how OPEC spare capacity could develop during 2008-2014. This year, the MTOMR also consolidates analysis of future crude availability and trade flows, refining capacity and oil products supply implications under one cover. The MTOMR remains required reading for policy makers, market analysts, industry participants and anyone with an interest in oil market trends. It contains detailed statistical appendices and a wealth of insightful graphics. Alongside its monthly sister publication, the Oil Market Report, the MTOMR is a cornerstone of the IEA commitment to enhancing oil market transparency.

  14. Price dependence in the principal EU olive oil markets

    Emmanouilides, C.; Fousekis, P.; Grigoriadis, V.

    2014-06-01

    The objective of this paper is to assess the degree and the structure of price dependence in the principal EU olive oil markets (Spain, Italy and Greece). To this end, it utilizes monthly olive oil price data and the statistical tool of copulas. The empirical results suggest that prices are likely to boom together but not to crash together; this is especially true for the prices of the two most important players, Italy (importer) and Spain (exporter). The finding of asymmetric price co-movements implies that the three principal spatial olive oil markets in the EU cannot be thought of as one great pool. (Author)

  15. Technical and economic framework for market enhancement of shale oil

    Bunger, J.W.; Devineni, A.V.

    1992-01-01

    By now it is apparent that production of syncrude from shale oil will not be economically viable as long as there is a stable and reasonably-priced supply of petroleum. The costs and financial risks of producing syncrude from oil shale, in the face of price constraints imposed by petroleum markets, are too high to warrant private investment. A possible solution is to develop commodity and specialty products from shale oil which command a high market value. In this fashion, the economics are partially uncoupled from petroleum and an opportunity for a greater price/cost differential is provided

  16. Panorama 2013 - The oil market in 2012 and forward trends

    Maisonnier, Guy

    2012-11-01

    As predicted at the beginning of 2012, the past year has proved fairly similar to 2011, focused more on geopolitical risk than the economic downturn, leading to a high oil price, close to the 2011 price ($110 for Brent). For the future, caution is called for: past performance is no guarantee of future developments... the old saying certainly applies to the oil market. While tension and even runaway oil prices remain a credible scenario for geopolitical reasons, a marked decline in the coming years is also a possibility. Faced with these extreme trends, the market reached an unstable balance at $110 for Brent (WTI around $95). (author)

  17. Explaining the so-called 'price premium' in oil markets

    Merino, A.; Ortiz, A.

    2005-01-01

    This paper explores the information content of several variables on the so-called ''oil price premium over fundamentals''. We define this premium as the difference between the market oil price and the estimated price consistent with the OECD's relative industry stock level. By using Granger causality tests and extended regressions we test the systematic ability of a broad set of variables to explain the premium. We find that speculation in the oil market - measured by non-commercial long positions - can improve the traditional model, reducing the premium significantly during some parts of the sample. (author)

  18. Medium-Term Oil Market Report 2012: Market Trends and Projections to 2017

    NONE

    2012-07-01

    Supply shortfalls – from the Libyan civil war in 2011 and international sanctions on Iran in 2012 to a swathe of unplanned non-OPEC output stoppages – have buffeted the oil market, sending prices near 2008 highs and rekindling debate on the role of speculation in fuelling volatility. There have also been success stories. Growth in North American light, tight oil and non-conventional supply has reached game-changing levels. Iraqi production has scaled new heights, the Libyan production recovery in 2012 defied expectations and Saudi output surged to 30-year highs. On the demand front, the economic recovery has lost momentum. Market share continues to shift from mature to newly industrialised economies, but amid persistent concerns about the health of the former; China, the leading engine of oil demand growth of the last 15 years, is giving signs of slowdown. Those developments have challenged earlier assumptions and significantly changed the oil market outlook for the next five years. The IEA Medium-Term Oil Market Report (MTOMR) – companion to the monthly OMR – draws their implications for the future. It provides detailed projections for oil supply at field level, crude quality trends, demand by product, refined product output and oil investments through 2017. It examines oil price formation, regulatory changes, OPEC dynamics and the future of spare capacity – while also reviewing the contribution of new supplies from deepwater, light tight oil, biofuel and natural gas liquids. It explores how market changes are reshaping the refining industry – and what that means for trade flows. At a time of heightened economic and geopolitical risk, MTOMR is essential reading for anyone interested in oil market dynamics and in understanding the oil market context in which these risks are playing out.

  19. The impact of energy derivatives on the crude oil market

    Fleming, J.; Ostdiek, B. [Jones Graduate School of Management, Rice University, MS 531, P.O. Box 1892 Houston, TX (United States)

    1999-04-01

    We examine the effects of energy derivatives trading on the crude oil market. There is a common public and regulatory perception that derivative securities increase volatility and can have a destabilizing effect on the underlying market. Consistent with this view, we find an abnormal increase in volatility for three consecutive weeks following the introduction of NYMEX crude oil futures. While there is also evidence of a longer-term volatility increase, this is likely due to exogenous factors, such as the continuing deregulation of the energy markets. Subsequent introductions of crude oil options and derivatives on other energy commodities have no effect on crude oil volatility. We also examine the effects of derivatives trading on the depth and liquidity of the crude oil market. This analysis reveals a strong inverse relation between the open interest in crude oil futures and spot market volatility. Specifically, when open interest is greater, the volatility shock associated with a given unexpected increase in volume is much smaller. (Copyright (c) 1999 Elsevier Science B.V., Amsterdam. All rights reserved.)

  20. The impact of energy derivatives on the crude oil market

    Fleming, J.; Ostdiek, B.

    1999-01-01

    We examine the effects of energy derivatives trading on the crude oil market. There is a common public and regulatory perception that derivative securities increase volatility and can have a destabilizing effect on the underlying market. Consistent with this view, we find an abnormal increase in volatility for three consecutive weeks following the introduction of NYMEX crude oil futures. While there is also evidence of a longer-term volatility increase, this is likely due to exogenous factors, such as the continuing deregulation of the energy markets. Subsequent introductions of crude oil options and derivatives on other energy commodities have no effect on crude oil volatility. We also examine the effects of derivatives trading on the depth and liquidity of the crude oil market. This analysis reveals a strong inverse relation between the open interest in crude oil futures and spot market volatility. Specifically, when open interest is greater, the volatility shock associated with a given unexpected increase in volume is much smaller. (Copyright (c) 1999 Elsevier Science B.V., Amsterdam. All rights reserved.)

  1. Market analysis of shale oil co-products. Summary report

    1980-12-01

    This study examines the potential for separating, upgrading and marketing sodium mineral co-products together with shale oil production. The co-products investigated are soda ash and alumina which are derived from the minerals nahcolite and dawsonite. Five cases were selected to reflect the variance in mineral and shale oil content in the identified resource. In the five cases examined, oil content of the shale was varied from 20 to 30 gallons per ton. Two sizes of facilities were analyzed for each resource case to determine economies of scale between a 15,000 barrel per day demonstration unit and a 50,000 barrel per day full sized plant. Three separate pieces of analysis were conducted in this study: analysis of manufacturing costs for shale oil and co-products; projection of potential world markets for alumina, soda ash, and nahcolite; and determination of economic viability and market potential for shale co-products.

  2. Dynamics of the Asia-Pacific oil market

    Yamaguchi, N.D.

    1996-01-01

    The Asia-Pacific could become the world's largest oil market with an estimated 10 million b/d new demand by 2010. At the same time less Asian crude will be available for the world market. Refinery expansion is likely to be insufficient and imports of refined products will rise. The Asia-Pacific market could be the world's largest middle distillate importer and a major centre of trade for essentially every other petroleum product and form of commercial energy. (Author)

  3. Placing Brazil's heavy acid oils on international markets

    Szklo, Alexandre Salem; Machado, Giovani; Schaeffer, Roberto; Felipe Simoes, Andre; Barboza Mariano, Jacqueline

    2006-01-01

    This paper identifies the international market niches of Brazil's heavy acid oils. It analyzes the perspectives for making wider use of heavy acid oils, assessing their importance for certain oil-producing regions such as Brazil, Venezuela, West Africa, the North Sea and China. Within this context, the oil produced in the Marlim Field offshore Brazil is of specific interest, spurred by the development of its commercial brand name for placement on international markets and backed by ample production volumes. This analysis indicates keener international competition among acid oils produced in Brazil, the North Sea and the West Coast of Africa, through to 2010. However, over the long term, refinery conversion capacity is the key factor for channeling larger volumes of heavy acid oils to the international market. In this case, the future of acid oil producers will depend on investments in refineries close to oil product consumption centers. For Brazil, this means investments in modifying its refineries and setting up partnerships in the downstream segment for consumer centers absorbing all products of high added value, such as the USA and even Southeast Asia and Western Europe

  4. The peak of oil production-Timings and market recognition

    Almeida, Pedro de; Silva, Pedro D.

    2009-01-01

    Energy is essential for present societies. In particular, transportation systems depend on petroleum-based fuels. That world oil production is set to pass a peak is now a reasonably accepted concept, although its date is far from consensual. In this work, we analyze the true expectations of the oil market participants about the future availability of this fundamental energy source. We study the evolution through time of the curves of crude oil futures prices, and we conclude that the market participants, among them the crude oil producers, already expect a near-term peak of oil production. This agrees with many technical predictions for the date of peak production, including our own, that point to peak dates around the end of the present decade. If this scenario is confirmed, it can cause serious social and economical problems because societies will have little time to perform the necessary adjustments

  5. Financial market pressure, tacit collusion and oil price formation

    Aune, Finn Roar; Rosendahl, Knut Einar; Mohn, Klaus; Osmundsen, Petter

    2010-01-01

    We explore a hypothesis that a change in investment behaviour among international oil companies (IOC) towards the end of the 1990s had long-lived effects on OPEC strategies, and on oil price formation. Coordinated investment constraints were imposed on the IOCs through financial market pressures for improved short-term profitability in the wake of the Asian economic crisis. A partial equilibrium model for the global oil market is applied to compare the effects of these tacitly collusive capital constraints on oil supply with an alternative characterised by industrial stability. Our results suggest that even temporary economic and financial shocks may have a long-term impact on oil price formation. (author)

  6. Near-term world oil markets : economics, politics and prices

    Dwarkin, J.

    2002-01-01

    This paper discusses the three main factors that will determine how OPEC oil production will impact on energy markets. OPEC reassured the market in September 2001, following the terrorist attack in New York that it would not cut oil production, but by December 2001, OPEC was threatening that it would cut production unless many key non-OPEC producers collaborated to shore up prices. On January 1, 2002, OPEC members went ahead with a quota reduction, based on pledges of cuts from the non-OPEC oil exporting countries. World economies, oil demand, and the path which the U.S. economy will take during 2002 is critical in determining what happens next in terms of oil production from OPEC. Another important factor is knowing whether non-OPEC producers will actually cut output to a significant extent. The most critical factor will be the response by OPEC members if non-OPEC exporting countries do not keep their promise

  7. THE WORLD OIL MARKET – STATISTICAL ANALYSIS

    Alexandru AnaMaria

    2009-05-01

    Full Text Available For some countries the oil is the main source of income, while for others it represents the main raw material for energetic needs. Thus, the oil price has major influence on their economies and it is important for them that it stabilizes at a level profit

  8. Simulations at Czech poultry market

    Lenka Rumánková

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper defines the possible scenarios of the development of the poultry market in the Czech Republic, in view of the trends in production, consumption and foreign trade. The individual scenarios are based upon the forecasts of selected factors that have a substantial impact on the poultry market and whose changes can be expected in the subsequent years with great likelihood. The article sets out and addresses various scenarios for the period of 2012–2014. The scenarios are based upon the partial equilibrium model of the poultry market, which has been derived on the basis of time series and panel data within the years 1995–2009. The conducted analysis clearly shows that changes in the prices of agricultural producers will have an effect on changes in the production of poultry meat, an increase in VAT through consumer prices will impact the rate of domestic consumption, as well as changes in disposable income. Similarly, a change in the exchange rate will have an effect on the amount of poultry imported into the Czech Republic.

  9. Oil market in the 1990s: implications for ESCWA countries

    Gault, J.; Karbassioun, B.

    1992-01-01

    This paper, prepared for the ESCWA Expert Group Meeting in Amman, Jordan, 20-23 November 1989, concerns the outlook for oil markets in the coming decade and the implications of certain market trends for the ESCWA countries, including both the energy exporting and energy importing members of ESCWA. It is argued that increasing oil consumption may well bring world oil production close to physical capacity before the end of the 1990s, thereby provoking an increase in real oil prices. It is further argued that the uncertainty surrounding this scenario is asymmetric; it is more likely that real oil prices will rise than that they will remain stable or fall. Other major trends, including enhanced worldwide concern for the environment and the bilateralization of world trade, also will affect ESCWA countries. The authors conclude that member countries should expand petroleum exploration activities, improve the operating efficiency of their national oil companies, bring domestic energy prices into line with world markets, expand natural gas development and marketing efforts, participate in multilateral trade negotiations, and expand co-ordination in all energy matters. (Author)

  10. Jump dynamics and volatility: Oil and the stock markets

    Chiou, Jer-Shiou; Lee, Yen-Hsien

    2009-01-01

    Our study distinguishes itself from the prior studies within the oil and financial literature by not only examining the asymmetric effects of oil prices on stock returns, but also exploring the importance of structure changes in this dependency relationship. We retrieve daily data on S and P 500 and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil transactions covering the period from 1 January 1992 to 7 November 2006, and then transform the available data into daily returns. In contrast to the extant literature, in this study, consideration of expected, unexpected and negative unexpected oil price fluctuations is incorporated into the model of stock returns; we also focus on the ways in which oil price volatility, as opposed to general macroeconomic variables, can influence the stock market. We go on to implement the ARJI (Autoregressive Conditional Jump Intensity) model with structure changes, from which we conclude that high fluctuations in oil prices have asymmetric unexpected impacts on S and P 500 returns. (author)

  11. Taxing the difference: World oil market projections 1994-2009

    Reinsch, A.E.; Considine, J.I.; MacKay, E.J.

    1994-01-01

    The likely impacts of key uncertainties affecting the oil market were assessed, and reference price path to aid industry and governments in their investment and policy decisions, was provided. The reference market outlook corresponded to an annual growth of around 1.5% and a price of $ 18.00 per barrel. The greatest weakness of the market projections were found to be the expected performance of petroleum product demand growth. There was strong evidence that governments of major oil consuming countries had taken action to weaken the response of petroleum product demand to declines in the crude price, by driving an ever increasing fiscal wedge between the crude price and the corresponding product prices.The outcome is an asymmetry in demand response to crude price movements. Incorporation of this asymmetry into the world oil market model could have some disturbing results: under the reference case market assumptions, continuation of this tax and pricing policy would not only eliminate the price gains projected, but move the oil price below current levels on a sustained basis. The study concluded that OPEC members and the governments of the major industrialized oil consuming countries should strive to reach an agreement to avoid catastrophic price instability. refs., tabs., figs

  12. Comment: Reluctance to trade a risky position in oil market

    Thomas, M.

    1995-01-01

    The oil industry is re-engineering, restructuring, down-sizing, etc. as part of a draconian effort to reduce costs and enhance profit margins. Benchmarking of corporate results against the competition is in vogue, with a view to challenging performance at every level of management. The bold can do attitude behind today's oil industry revolution in management grinds to a halt when the subject is oil trading. Mention speculation, oil pricing mechanisms, market risk-taking, or derivative instruments, and many in senior management and the corporate boardroom lapse into worried silence. When an oil company finishes restructuring and reconcentrating business direction, setting new investment and performance criteria, it is still left with the huge variable of price. Any corporate management that fails to act aggressively in the trading sector by pursuing the best possible oil price as a buyer or seller isn't living up to its responsibilities to shareholders. This article discusses market retreat, market imperfections, winners and losers, the decision to trade, developing a program and issues currently attracting oil industry attention

  13. Medium-Term Oil and Gas Markets 2011

    NONE

    2011-06-16

    Oil and gas markets have been marked by an increased divergence in recent months. On the one hand, oil market developments have generated an unpleasant sense of deja vu: rapid demand growth in emerging markets eclipsed sluggish supply growth to push prices higher even before the conflict in Libya tightened supplies still further. Oil prices around $100/bbl are weighing down on an already-fragile macroeconomic and financial situation in the OECD, pressuring national budgets in the non-OECD and causing price inflation of other commodities, as well as political concerns about speculation. There is an uncanny resemblance to the first half of 2008. On the other hand, in the world of natural gas an amazing disconnect has developed as demand recovered to well above pre-financial-crisis levels in most major regions. Gas markets have tightened in Europe and Asia, where prices are about twice the level seen in the United States, as the unconventional gas revolution is in full swing. From the upstream implications of the Arab Spring to the macroeconomic consequences of the eurozone crisis, energy markets are experiencing one of the most uncertain periods in decades. This publication provides a comprehensive outlook for oil and gas fundamentals through 2016. The oil market analysis covers demand developments on a product-by-product and key-sector basis, as well as a detailed bottom-up assessment of upstream and refinery investments, trade flows, oil products supply and OPEC spare capacity. The gas market analysis offers a region-by-region assessment of demand and production, infrastructure investment, price developments and prospects for unconventional gas. It also examines the globalising LNG trade.

  14. Global market trade policy analysis for petroleum oils and oils obtained from bituminous minerals, crude

    Bagheri, F.

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available This article is based on surveying the custom tariffs imposed on the world export market of Petroleum Oils and Oils Obtained from Bituminous Minerals, Crude. We obtained the data according to the most updated available data provided online by UNCTAD and World Bank. The results indicate that none of the 142 countries in the world market of this product have imposed non-tariff trade barriers on the import of Petroleum Oils and Oils Obtained from Bituminous Minerals, Crude. The developed countries and the countries with transition economies are the main world import partners. European Union, United States, China, Japan, South Korea, Canada, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand, South Africa, Australia, Turkey, Brazil, Sweden and Belarus are the examples and have imposed low custom tariffs on Petroleum Oils and Oils Obtained from Bituminous Minerals, Crude.

  15. Vicissitudes in the Hong Kong oil market, 1980-97

    Chow, L.-H.

    2000-01-01

    Hong Kong, devoid of natural resources, has to import all the energy it consumes. Up to 1981, oil accounted for almost 100 per cent of the total primary energy requirement, of which about 59 per cent was used to generate electricity. Starting in 1982, the electricity sector switched to coal generation, leading to plummeting oil consumption. The conversion process was essentially completed by 1988. Local sales of oil products declined from 5.790 million kilolitres in 1981 to 3.470m kl in 1987, but climbed back to 5.157m kl in 1997; oil consumption stagnated between 1981 and 1997. This paper analyses the fluctuations in oil consumption during the period, covering use by the utility and non-utility sectors. Next, it deals with consumption of, and the factors involved in, the six major oil products, i.e. fuel oil, diesel, gasoline, liquefied petroleum gas, kerosene and jet fuel. Interestingly, bunker sales, including air and sea transport, rose noticeably during these years, partly offsetting the effect of slumping oil sales to the power plants and helping boost total oil demand in the 1990s. Lastly, a glimpse into the future of the Hong Kong oil market is taken. (author)

  16. Prospect for the oil market as a consequence of the financial crisis

    Koppelaar, R.

    2008-11-01

    The Peak Oil Netherlands Foundation shines its light on the consequences of the financial crisis for the global oil market and the relation between oil prices and the credit crisis; short term supply and demand on the oil market; supply and demand of petroleum up to 2015; the volatility of the oil price and the meaning of volatility for the energy transition [mk] [nl

  17. Testing efficiency and unbiasedness in the oil market

    Moosa, I.A.; Al-Loughani, N.

    1994-03-01

    This paper presents some empirical evidence on speculative efficiency or unbiasedness in the crude oil futures market and some related issues. On the basis of monthly observations on spot and futures prices of the WTI crude oil, several tests are carried out on the relevant hypotheses. The evidence suggests that futures prices are neither unbiased nor efficient forecasters of spot prices. Furthermore, a GARCH-M(1,1) model reveals the existence of a time-varying risk premium. (author)

  18. Islamic versus conventional stock market and its co-movement with crude oil: a wavelet analysis

    Kamarudin, Eka Azrin; Masih, Mansur

    2015-01-01

    Crude oil market plays an important role in economic development and its price changes give huge impact to the financial markets. In this paper, the relationships between crude oil and stock markets are examined. This study has selected Malaysian Islamic and conventional stock markets as a case study. Financialisation of crude oil and its frequent inclusion into investment portfolios warrant an analysis of the relationship between crude oil and stock market indices at various time scales or i...

  19. The tenth CERI [Canadian Energy Research Institute] international oil and gas markets conference

    1991-01-01

    At a conference on oil and gas markets, papers were presented on oil market instability and its impact on economic development, international energy policy, oil supply and demand, natural gas liquids sales, world gas trade, gas markets in Europe and Asia, petroleum industry activities and their relation to government, oil refining and product market developments, and the North American natural gas market. Separate abstracts have been prepared for 25 papers from this conference

  20. The World Oil Market: The Search for Balance in the New “Oil” Reality

    Tatjiana A. Malova

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The article provides an analysis of change of the world oil market in the face of new "oil" reality. Factors of formation of new "oil" reality in the global world defined. Scientific background and current state of research of the problem are described. It is shownthat in the Russian and foreign literature the considerable attention is paid to the analysis of dynamics of the quantitative variables characterizing fluctuations and shocks in the oil market. At the same time the search for balance in the new "oil" reality are not considerably investigated yet. The proposed approach allows toreveal the substance of the transformation of the world oil market, to assess the changes in the oil market with the development of rhenium in terms of efficiency and functioning of the mechanism, the prospects of price volatility in the oil market. The main directions of transformation of the oil market are follows. Development of a subject basis of the oil market due to changes of a role of the main market players whose structure includes the USA, Saudi Arabia, Russia now. The impact of regulatory factors complex in the oil market towards equilibrium, which include activity of OPEC, supply of shale oil, future market,activity of the uniform regulator and national regulators. Transformation of the oil market in the direction of perfection of the competitive relations, achievement of optimum market balance as a result of coordination and interaction of interests of participants of the global oil market.

  1. Market risks and oilfield ownership - Refining oil and gas disclosures

    Kretzschmar, Gavin L.; Hatherly, David; Misund, Bard

    2007-01-01

    Market risk exposures of balance sheet asset values are becoming an increasingly important accounting issue. In oil and gas, oilfield exposures to oil prices are specific and contractual, presenting a contingency problem for investors, financial analysts, standard setting bodies and government agencies. Our paper uses an extensive sample of 292 oilfields to provide evidence that the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) supplementary disclosures do not capture the price sensitivities of oil and gas disclosures implicit in the two main forms of oilfield ownership, concession and production sharing contracts (PSCs). Current asset disclosures neither distinguish between global variations in oilfield ownership terms, nor on market risk implications for the value of oilfield assets. Importantly, we show that unlike concessions, reserve and production disclosures vary in response to oil price movements for PSC regimes. Our results highlight the need to differentiate PSC disclosures from concession fields, and to fully reflect price risks implicit in oilfield ownership contracts. We extend findings by Rajgopal [1999. Early evidence on the informativeness of the SEC's market risk disclosures: the case of commodity price risk exposure of oil and gas producers. The Accounting Review 74, 251-280] and propose refinements to capture market risk in financial reporting. (author)

  2. Panorama 2012 - The oil market in 2011 and forward trends

    Maisonnier, Guy

    2012-02-01

    Geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties were the two forces that drove oil market trends in 2011. Revolutions in North Africa pushed the price of Brent crude to a record high of $111 bbl on average, despite a slowdown in the rate of global economic growth. 2012 could be fairly similar, with further economic decline and high oil prices ($100+) if the geopolitical context remains under strain. Going forward, an oil price that remains consistently above $100 bbl presents itself as an increasingly credible scenario. (author)

  3. Perspectives for pyrolysis oil production and market in Scandinavia

    Sipilae, K.; Oasmaa, A.; Solantausta, Y.; Arpiainen, V.; Nyroenen, T.

    1999-01-01

    Commercial power production from biomass is mainly based on various combustion technologies, new gasification technologies being on pilot and demonstration scale in Europe. From the market viewpoint, there will be an attractive and large market volume for small and medium-scale combined heat and power production (CHP) and for liquid bioenergy products in order to meet the Kyoto challenges in Europe by the year 2010. Biomass pyrolysis technology offers a novel method of converting solid biomass to a liquid product which can easily be transported, stored and utilised for electricity production by diesel engines and gas turbines. The overall efficiency in pyrolysis oil production can be increased from 65 to 90 % (LHV) by integrating the big-oil production to a conventional boiler plant, the-system identified by VTT. A modern diesel power plant has an efficiency of 40 - 44 % with a high power-to-heat ratio. Parallel to diesel power plants, the big-oil can be used in existing heating oil boilers with minor burner modifications. The paper comprises an overview of market assessments in Scandinavia and a summary of pyrolysis oil production, stability and properties tests. The challenge of today is to understand and improve the properties of pyrolysis oils in order to reach a 12-month storage time without any changes in the homogeneity of pyrolysis oils. Reliable operation of oil-fired boilers and diesel power plants has to be demonstrated. As soon as these problems have been solved, biomass pyrolysis technologies will offer new attractive bioenergy market opportunities where a huge potential can be reached by conversing existing petroleum-fired boilers, 0.1 - 10 MW to big-oils and followed by combined heat and power production with high-efficiency diesel power plants in 0.1 - 10 MW scale. Pyrolysis technology is clearly the most attractive method for producing liquid biofuels, compared to bioalcohols and biodiesel. With the present price structure, pyrolysis oil can be

  4. Is oil supply choked by financial market pressures?

    Osmundsen, P.; Mohn, K.; Misund, B.; Asche, F.

    2007-01-01

    Since the late 1990s, financial analysts have focused strongly on short-term profitability for benchmarking and valuation of international oil and gas companies. The increasing pressure for strict capital discipline among oil and gas companies may have reduced their willingness to invest for future reserves and production growth. The current high oil price is partly due to low exploration activity in the oil industry the last decade. We present and discuss the background for this development - based on previous academic research, industry trends and current valuation practices. An estimated econometric model of stock market valuation among oil and gas companies suggests that analysts and companies have put exaggerate weight on short-term earnings and accounting profitability. We therefore expect that the attention will shift back to long-term reserve and production growth. (author)

  5. Is oil supply choked by financial market pressures?

    Osmundsen, Petter; Mohn, Klaus; Misund, Bard; Asche, Frank

    2007-01-01

    Since the late 1990s, financial analysts have focused strongly on short-term profitability for benchmarking and valuation of international oil and gas companies. The increasing pressure for strict capital discipline among oil and gas companies may have reduced their willingness to invest for future reserves and production growth. The current high oil price is partly due to low exploration activity in the oil industry the last decade. We present and discuss the background for this development-based on previous academic research, industry trends and current valuation practices. An estimated econometric model of stock market valuation among oil and gas companies suggests that analysts and companies have put exaggerate weight on short-term earnings and accounting profitability. We therefore expect that the attention will shift back to long-term reserve and production growth

  6. Measuring efficiency of international crude oil markets: A multifractality approach

    Niere, H. M.

    2015-01-01

    The three major international crude oil markets are treated as complex systems and their multifractal properties are explored. The study covers daily prices of Brent crude, OPEC reference basket and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude from January 2, 2003 to January 2, 2014. A multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MFDFA) is employed to extract the generalized Hurst exponents in each of the time series. The generalized Hurst exponent is used to measure the degree of multifractality which in turn is used to quantify the efficiency of the three international crude oil markets. To identify whether the source of multifractality is long-range correlations or broad fat-tail distributions, shuffled data and surrogated data corresponding to each of the time series are generated. Shuffled data are obtained by randomizing the order of the price returns data. This will destroy any long-range correlation of the time series. Surrogated data is produced using the Fourier-Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (F-DFA). This is done by randomizing the phases of the price returns data in Fourier space. This will normalize the distribution of the time series. The study found that for the three crude oil markets, there is a strong dependence of the generalized Hurst exponents with respect to the order of fluctuations. This shows that the daily price time series of the markets under study have signs of multifractality. Using the degree of multifractality as a measure of efficiency, the results show that WTI is the most efficient while OPEC is the least efficient market. This implies that OPEC has the highest likelihood to be manipulated among the three markets. This reflects the fact that Brent and WTI is a very competitive market hence, it has a higher level of complexity compared against OPEC, which has a large monopoly power. Comparing with shuffled data and surrogated data, the findings suggest that for all the three crude oil markets, the multifractality is mainly due to long

  7. Future markets and the two dimensions of instability in commodity markets: The oil experience

    Calabre, S.

    1991-01-01

    Public opinion and the media often suggest that futures markets have made the price of oil more unstable than it otherwise should be. It is argued that short-term price instability, associated with the functioning commodity futures markets, must be distinguished from medium-term instability, associated with the processes that adjust supply and consumption. Futures markets appear to be price destabilizing at times, although they also facilitate the management of trade in oil. In the medium term, however, stability and instability are determined by the mechanisms that adjust production and consumption. 39 refs., 4 figs

  8. Effect of floating pricing policy: An application of system dynamics on oil market after liberalization

    Wu, Jung-Hua, E-mail: hwaa@mail.ncku.edu.tw [Department of Resources Engineering, National Cheng Kung University, Tainan 701, Taiwan (China); Huang, Yi-Lung [Exploration and Development Research Institute, Chinese Petroleum Corporation, Taiwan, No. 1, Dayuan, Wenfa Road, Miaoli City, Miaoli County 36042, Taiwan (China); Liu, Chang-Chen [Department of Resources Engineering, National Cheng Kung University, Tainan 701, Taiwan (China)

    2011-07-15

    Upon the implementation of the floating price mechanism, Taiwan's gasoline and diesel prices returned to market mechanism, which terminated the phenomenon of the public paying for the losses of the state-owned oil company-Chinese Petroleum Corporation, Taiwan (CPC). Furthermore, the relatively low production costs of the privately owned Formosa Petrochemical Corporation (FPCC) disclosed the pricing mechanism of CPC, which inspired FPCC to adopt pricing strategy in order to increase the market share. This study aims to establish a system dynamics model to analyze the effects of the floating price mechanism on Taiwan's gasoline and diesel markets. This Model is divided into four sub-systems. The model of this study passed several validation tests, and hence, is able to provide a 'virtual laboratory' for policy-makers to conduct simulation and scenario analysis. The simulation results indicate (a) feedback mechanism of expected revenues and pricing strategy could efficiently simulate the FPCC pricing mechanism, (b) price competition strategy could increase FPCC revenues, although the effect on market share is not remarkable, and (c) FPCC has a higher gas-station growth rate. Scenario analyses found (a) lowering oil security stockpile would not change FPCC's pricing strategy and (b) FPCC prefers to follow CPC pricing when it has more gas stations. - Highlights: > System dynamics model analyzes the effects of oil markets' floating price mechanism. > Feedback mechanism of expected revenues could efficiently simulate pricing mechanism. > Price competition strategy could increase FPCC revenues. > Lowering oil security stockpile, FPCC's pricing strategy would not change. > FPCC prefers to follow CPC pricing when it has more gas stations.

  9. Effect of floating pricing policy: An application of system dynamics on oil market after liberalization

    Wu, Jung-Hua; Huang, Yi-Lung; Liu, Chang-Chen

    2011-01-01

    Upon the implementation of the floating price mechanism, Taiwan's gasoline and diesel prices returned to market mechanism, which terminated the phenomenon of the public paying for the losses of the state-owned oil company-Chinese Petroleum Corporation, Taiwan (CPC). Furthermore, the relatively low production costs of the privately owned Formosa Petrochemical Corporation (FPCC) disclosed the pricing mechanism of CPC, which inspired FPCC to adopt pricing strategy in order to increase the market share. This study aims to establish a system dynamics model to analyze the effects of the floating price mechanism on Taiwan's gasoline and diesel markets. This Model is divided into four sub-systems. The model of this study passed several validation tests, and hence, is able to provide a 'virtual laboratory' for policy-makers to conduct simulation and scenario analysis. The simulation results indicate (a) feedback mechanism of expected revenues and pricing strategy could efficiently simulate the FPCC pricing mechanism, (b) price competition strategy could increase FPCC revenues, although the effect on market share is not remarkable, and (c) FPCC has a higher gas-station growth rate. Scenario analyses found (a) lowering oil security stockpile would not change FPCC's pricing strategy and (b) FPCC prefers to follow CPC pricing when it has more gas stations. - Highlights: → System dynamics model analyzes the effects of oil markets' floating price mechanism. → Feedback mechanism of expected revenues could efficiently simulate pricing mechanism. → Price competition strategy could increase FPCC revenues. → Lowering oil security stockpile, FPCC's pricing strategy would not change. → FPCC prefers to follow CPC pricing when it has more gas stations.

  10. Japan's oil market and refining sector

    Yamaguchi, N.D.

    2002-01-01

    The present economic situation in Japan is discussed. In particular, the focus is on fluctuations in oil product demand, imports of crude oil, and the refining industry. Throughout the 1990s, Japan was plagued by a volatile economy and the new millennium has shown no improvement. A prolonged recession means that the country now has little confidence in its leaders and its institutions, consumer confidence is low and asset values have deflated. Due to a low birth rate and long life expectancy, the population is aging and this means lower savings rates. The contrast between the present situation and the so-called economic miracle once enjoyed by the Japanese is hard to accept, but despite all this, the Japanese lifestyle and economy are to be envied

  11. Oil markets to 2010: the impact of non-Opec oil

    Enav, Peter

    1998-09-01

    This report provides an in-depth assessment of oil development scenarios in every non-Opec oil producing country from 1998 to 2010, in addition to evaluating the extent and direction of future oil trade for Opec and non-Opec countries alike. It re-assesses world oil consumption patterns in light of the Asian financial crisis, providing a concise yet comprehensive coverage of an often-neglected oil production group. The oil market development scenario is analysed in each country, with detailed consideration of the major players providing historical production, consumption, import and export data; current oil balance - production, imports and exports; an assessment of oil development policy; analysis of potential development obstacles considering regulatory, financial, political and environmental issues; oil production and consumption projections to 2010, by type; and import and export projections to 2010, by destination and source. More than 80 tables supplying essential statistics on the world's non-Opec markets accompany the report, with maps and schematic diagrams showing existing and potential infrastructure and fields. (Author)

  12. The economy of palm oil production and marketing in Igala land ...

    The economy of palm oil production and marketing in Igala land. ... Palm oil processing and marketing constituted one of the major occupations of the people as men, women and even the young ones ... EMAIL FULL TEXT EMAIL FULL TEXT

  13. Market for oil and gas assets defined in survey

    Taggart, L.; Murry, D.A.

    1991-01-01

    This paper reports that hundreds of companies are currently active in the oil and gas acquisition and disposition marketplace, but unfortunately, the entire sale process within the industry continues to operate inefficiently. The mechanism for selling oil and gas properties in this secondary market - as used here, a term that excludes initial investments in oil and gas assets and sales of drilling program shares - is sort of catch-as-catch- can. Identifying who is seeking what type of property at any time is difficult, bordering on guesswork. A recent survey of 186 company representatives and individuals, who declared themselves as in the market, disclosed some of this information at a point in time

  14. Mathematical simulation of oil reservoir properties

    Ramirez, A.; Romero, A.; Chavez, F.; Carrillo, F.; Lopez, S.

    2008-01-01

    The study and computational representation of porous media properties are very important for many industries where problems of fluid flow, percolation phenomena and liquid movement and stagnation are involved, for example, in building constructions, ore processing, chemical industries, mining, corrosion sciences, etc. Nevertheless, these kinds of processes present a noneasy behavior to be predicted and mathematical models must include statistical analysis, fractal and/or stochastic procedures to do it. This work shows the characterization of sandstone berea core samples which can be found as a porous media (PM) in natural oil reservoirs, rock formations, etc. and the development of a mathematical algorithm for simulating the anisotropic characteristics of a PM based on a stochastic distribution of some of their most important properties like porosity, permeability, pressure and saturation. Finally a stochastic process is used again to simulated the topography of an oil reservoir

  15. The dynamic linkages between crude oil and natural gas markets

    Batten, Jonathan A.; Ciner, Cetin; Lucey, Brian M.

    2017-01-01

    The time varying price spillovers between natural gas and crude oil markets for the period 1994 to 2014 are investigated. Contrary to earlier research, we show that in a large part of our sample the natural gas price leads the price of crude oil with price spillover effects lasting up to two weeks. This result is robust to a battery of tests including out-of-sample forecasting exercises. However, after 2006, we detect little price dependencies between these two energy commodities. These findings arise due to a conjunction of both demand and supply-side shocks arising from both natural and economic events, including Hurricane Katrina, the Tohoku earthquake and the Global Financial Crisis, as well as infrastructure and technological improvements. The increased use of new technologies such as hydraulic fracking for the extraction of gas and oil in particular affected supply in the latter part of the study. We conclude that the long term relation present in the early part of the sample has decoupled, such that price determination of these two energy sources is now independent. - Highlights: • Contrary to earlier research we find natural gas may lead crude oil prices over a long sample. • This finding holds in forecasting out of sample. • There may be a break in the relationship between oil and gas in 2006. • We suggest that new technologies and financial conditions have led to a decoupling of these markets. • Oil and natural gas prices may now be determined independently.

  16. The fluctuations in oil prices in the OPEC countries and the impact on the world oil market

    Buryanova N.V.

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available the article examines the issues of influence of OPEC countries on the international oil market. Also, the author analyzes the state of the oil market and fluctuations in oil prices at the macroeconomic level for 2011–2016.

  17. Catching the Brass Ring: Oil Market Diversification Potential for Canada

    Michal C. Moore

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines the nature and structure of the Canadian oil export market in the context of world prices for heavy crude oil and the potential price differential available to Canadian producers gaining access to new overseas markets. Success in this arena will allow Canada to reap incredible economic benefits. For example, the near term benefits for increased access to Gulf Coast markets after mid-continent bottlenecks are removed, are significant, representing nearly 10$ US per barrel for Canadian producers. On the Pacific Coast, the world market is represented by growing capacity for heavy crude products in emerging Asian markets including Japan, Korea and China and existing heavy crude facilities in California and the west coast. Here, in the reference scenario for California and Asia the benefits are assumed to begin in 2020. The differential value range in California in 2020 is estimated at $7.20US per barrel and escalates to $8.77US by 2030. In Asia, the benefit range is estimated to grow from $11.15US per barrel in 2020 to $13.60US in 2030. Those higher prices for Canadian heavy oil would translate into significant increases in profits, jobs and government revenues. With better access and new pipeline capacity, oil producers will see more efficient access to international markets which can add up to $131 billion to Canada’s GDP between 2016 and 2030 in the reference scenario. This amounts to over $27 billion in federal, provincial and municipal tax receipts, along with an estimated 649,000 person-years of employment. Alberta will be the principal but not sole beneficiary from increased access to world market pricing. Most provinces and territories will realize fiscal and economic gains from the distribution and sale of products reflecting reduced costs and increased access to refineries for heavy oil. The key to this change is the elimination of current bottlenecks in transport and the expansion of a network of pipelines that can

  18. An Empirical Analysis of the Price Discovery Function of Shanghai Fuel Oil Futures Market

    Wang Zhen; Liu Zhenhai; Chen Chao

    2007-01-01

    This paper analyzes the role of price discovery of Shanghai fuel oil futures market by using methods, such as unit root test, co-integration test, error correction model, Granger causality test, impulse-response function and variance decomposition. The results showed that there exists a strong relationship between the spot price of Huangpu fuel oil spot market and the futures price of Shanghai fuel oil futures market. In addition, the Shanghai fuel oil futures market exhibits a highly effective price discovery function.

  19. An analysis of price and volatility transmission in butter, palm oil and crude oil markets

    Dennis Bergmann

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Recent changes to the common agricultural policy (CAP saw a shift to greater market orientation for the EU dairy industry. Given this reorientation, the volatility of EU dairy commodity prices has sharply increased, creating the need to develop proper risk management tools to protect farmers’ income and to ensure stable prices for processors and consumers. In addition, there is a perceived threat that these commodities may be replaced by cheaper substitutes, such as palm oil, as dairy commodity prices become more volatile. Global production of palm oil almost doubled over the last decade while butter production remained relatively flat. Palm oil also serves as a feedstock for biodiesel production, thus establishing a new link between agricultural commodities and crude oil. Price and volatility transmission effects between EU and World butter prices, as well as between butter, palm oil and crude oil prices, before and after the Luxembourg agreement, are analysed. Vector autoregression (VAR models are applied to capture price transmission effects between these markets. These are combined with a multivariate GARCH model to account for potential volatility transmission. Results indicate strong price and volatility transmission effects between EU and World butter prices. EU butter shocks further spillover to palm oil volatility. In addition, there is evidence that oil prices spillover to World butter prices and World butter volatility.

  20. The Canadian oil market: Annual review for 1993

    1994-07-01

    An overview is provided of the salient features of the Canadian oil market for 1993. This is the first annual version of the review; previous reviews (1986 to March 1993) were published quarterly. Statistics and discussion are given for refined petroleum product demand, drilling and exploration activity, crude oil supply and disposition, major oil pipelines, refinery activity, crude oil and petroleum product stocks, crude oil prices, and refined petroleum product prices. In 1993, demand for refined products continued to slowly recover against a background of generally stable prices. Drilling activity nearly doubled from 1992, due to such factors as royalty relief, rising demand, improved prices, and lower interest rates. Crude oil production rose nearly 10% over the last two years, with most of the rise occurring in 1993, and imports in 1993 reached their highest level in 15 years. Deliveries of crude to Canadian refineries rose in almost all regions. Half of Canadian crude production was exported, and the 1993 oil trade surplus reached a record $3.4 billion. Monthly Interprovincial PipeLines apportionment levels reached record highs in 1993. Refinery rationalization continued and capacity fell 6%, raising average refinery utilization to 84%. The price of Canadian sweet crude declined 7% to a five-year low. 45 figs., 9 tabs

  1. Marketing genetic tests: empowerment or snake oil?

    Bowen, Deborah J; Battuello, Kathryn M; Raats, Monique

    2005-10-01

    Genetic tests are currently being offered to the general public with little oversight and regulation as to which tests are allowed to be sold clinically and little control over the marketing and promotion of sales and use. This article provides discussion and data to indicate that the general public holds high opinions of genetic testing and that current media outlets for public education on genetic testing are not adequate to increase accurate knowledge of genetics. The authors argue that more regulation is needed to control and correct this problem in the United States.

  2. Crude oil and stock markets. Stability, instability, and bubbles

    Miller, J. Isaac; Ratti, Ronald A.

    2009-01-01

    We analyze the long-run relationship between the world price of crude oil and international stock markets over 1971:1-2008:3 using a cointegrated vector error correction model with additional regressors. Allowing for endogenously identified breaks in the cointegrating and error correction matrices, we find evidence for breaks after 1980:5, 1988:1, and 1999:9. There is a clear long-run relationship between these series for six OECD countries for 1971:1-1980.5 and 1988:2-1999.9, suggesting that stock market indices respond negatively to increases in the oil price in the long run. During 1980.6-1988.1, we find relationships that are not statistically significantly different from either zero or from the relationships of the previous period. The expected negative long-run relationship appears to disintegrate after 1999.9. This finding supports a conjecture of change in the relationship between real oil price and real stock prices in the last decade compared to earlier years, which may suggest the presence of several stock market bubbles and/or oil price bubbles since the turn of the century. (author)

  3. Market study on the oil and petroleum industry in Mexico

    1991-01-01

    The historical background of the Mexican petroleum industry is outlined and an overview is presented of the state of the Mexican economic environment. The Mexican market for oil and gas field equipment is estimated, with a focus on the oil monopoly PEMEX. The total imports of oil and gas field equipment are estimated to increase to US$280.4 million in 1992, and the most important foreign suppliers are led by the USA, which has a 72% share. Canadian exports of oil and gas field equipment have remained fairly stable during the last few years at $2.4-2.7 million. In general, prospects for Canadian suppliers to the Mexican market are best in the area of technologically sophisticated equipment. An end-user profile of PEMEX is presented, noting that it is the largest enterprise in Latin America and had $14.2 billion in sales in 1989. Equipment imported by PEMEX includes seamless steel pipe, drilling tools, gate and control valves, electric motors, processing and control equipment, steam and gas turbines, and telecommunications equipment. PEMEX activities in 1989 are reviewed, including those in the petrochemical sector, and projected activities are described. Major efforts planned by PEMEX include expansion of petrochemical production. Access to the Mexican market is discussed in terms of PEMEX purchasing policy, payment system, import requirements, the need for using a supplier agent, and use of the metric system and other standards. 6 figs., 2 tabs

  4. False security: the effects of long-term oil supply disruptions in a slack oil market

    Kah, M; Kruvant, W J

    1984-01-01

    The authors contention that the US should continue to be concerned about energy emergency preparedness, in the event of a long-term disruption of oil supplies, despite current slack economic conditions on the international market is outlined. One quarter of the world's total supply still comes from politically volatile areas of North Africa and the Middle East, and although oil imports have fallen off, the US is still vulnerable.

  5. Marketing BTUs: Gas, electricity lead oil in innovation

    Krapels, E.N.

    1996-01-01

    The transformation in relations between energy providers and users--powered by reform of electric utilities and by continuation of natural gas deregulation--is challenging several fundamental precepts of how oil companies managed their deregulation. In the wake of the price decontrol completed by the Reagan administration in 1981, oil companies (1) retreated from national business structures, (2) focused on limited range core businesses, and (3) provided minimal oil price risk management services for their customers. By contrast, the electric and natural gas industry is consolidating for the purpose of playing a role in ever-larger markets, diversifying its products and services, and providing innovative hedging instruments to itself as well as its customers. From Enron, one can purchase physical and paper energy, delivered in whatever form desired, nationwide and internationally, with or without mechanisms to manage price risk. What will impede the newly integrated energy companies--which are composite electric plus natural gas firms--from also delivering products and services now rendered by the oil companies? Could utilities organize gasoline consumers better than oil companies? If the Price Club can sell gasoline at 10 cents below market, why can't the new energy companies do so? The paper discusses what consumers want, procurement and costs, and innovations and lessons

  6. The oil and gas equipment and services market in Nigeria

    2003-01-01

    The oil and gas market in Nigeria is being expanded by the Nigerian government over the 2003-2010 period through increased exploration and production (E and P) in new areas. Other measures being implemented are the improvements of structural flaws that hamper industry growth, the modernization of the weak downstream sector, and attempts to attract foreign investment and technologies required for petroleum development. In 2001, it was estimated that the market for oil and gas equipment in Nigeria was approximately 1.03 billion dollars, and is expected to reach 1.15 billion dollars in 2002. In deep-sea areas, major offshore E and P projects are being planned by large oil multinationals. The implementation of several gas-related E and P operations and major liquefied natural gas (LNG) and gas-to-liquid (GTL) projects are being supported by the government of Nigeria to develop the natural gas sector. Onshore and offshore exploration, surveying and geophysical prospecting, drilling equipment, facilities maintenance, deepwater E and P, equipment for LNG/GTL facilities, enhanced recovery equipment and services, gas re-injection technology, pipelines, and the refinery sector are all areas where Canadian equipment and service suppliers could benefit from opportunities in Nigeria. One of the most prominent foreign player in the Nigerian market is Royal Dutch Shell. As far as the offshore deepwater E and P sub-sector, the three major players are Shell, ChevronTexaco, and ExxonMobil. The Nigerian government advocate in upstream and downstream oil industries in the country is Nigeria National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC). The primary domestic end-users of oil and gas equipment and services are member companies of the Nigerian Association of Indigenous Petroleum Exploration Companies (NAIPEC). Canadian companies are encouraged to form joint venture partnerships in oil and gas projects, as foreign majors operating in Nigeria tend to rely on the skills and expertise of foreign

  7. The effect of global oil price shocks on China's metal markets

    Zhang, Chuanguo; Tu, Xiaohua

    2016-01-01

    This paper investigated the impacts of global oil price shocks on the whole metal market and two typical metal markets: copper and aluminum. We applied the autoregressive conditional jump intensity (ARJI) model, combining with the generalized conditional heteroscedasticity (GRACH) method, to describe the volatility process and jump behavior in the global oil market. We separated the oil price shocks into positive and negative parts, to analyze whether oil price volatility had symmetric impacts on China’s metal markets. We further used the likelihood ratio test to examine the symmetric effect of oil price shocks. In addition, we considered the jump behavior in oil prices as an input factor to investigate how China’s metal markets are affected when jumps occur in the global oil market, in contrast to the existing research paying little attention to this issue. Our results indicate that crude oil price shocks have significant impacts on China's metal markets and the impacts are symmetric. When compared with aluminum, copper is more easily affected by oil price shocks. - Highlights: • We investigated the effect of oil price shocks on China’s metal markets. • The oil price shocks had significant impacts on China's metal markets • The oil price shocks on China's metal markets were symmetric. • Copper is more easily affected by oil price shocks than aluminum.

  8. How does market concern derived from the Internet affect oil prices?

    Guo, Jian-Feng; Ji, Qiang

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: • The impact of market concern derived from the Web on oil volatility is analysed. • It has an equilibrium relationship between oil prices and long-run market concern. • The short-run market concerns have an asymmetric influence on oil price volatility. • The Internet can exaggerate the impact of information shocks on oil price. - Abstract: With the acceleration of oil marketisation and the rapid development of electronic information carriers, external information shocks can be easily and quickly transmitted to the oil market through the Internet. This paper analyses the impact of short- and long-run market concerns, derived from search query volumes in Google for different domains around the oil market on oil volatility using co-integration and the modified EGARCH model. Empirical results suggest there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between oil prices and long-run market concern for oil prices and oil demand. The short-run market concerns for the 2008 financial crisis and the Libyan war convulsion have a significant and asymmetric influence on oil price volatility. This indicates that market concern transmitted through the Internet can strengthen the linkage between oil price changes and external events by influencing the expectation of market traders, and to some extent it can exaggerate the impact of nonfundamental information shocks

  9. SUSTAINABILITY OF SUSTAINABLE PALM OIL: A MARKET INTEGRATION ANALYSIS

    Diana Chalil

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Crude Palm Oil (CPO is the biggest consumed vegetable oil in the world. The increase in CPO production raises concern on the environmental impact even outside the producing countries. As a response to this matter, the EU has made a requirement to only import certified CPO (CSPO. India and China, the two biggest importers in the world, are less restrictive to the environmental issues, and their demands are more influenced by CPO price levels. These countries are the main export markets for Indonesia and Malaysia, the two biggest CPO exporters in the world. This research using monthly price data from the Netherlands, Germany, Italy, EU28, India, China, Indonesia and Malaysia. Market integrations are tested with Cointegration Test, Vector Error Correction Model and Seemingly Unrelated Regression. The results show that these markets are integrated, but European countries are unlikely to lead the price movement. Therefore, the concern on sustainable certification from the European countries still slowly spreads to other main importers, resulting in low absorption of CSPO. Keywords: market integration; sustainable palm oil; seemingly unrelated regression; vector Error correction model

  10. Four Essays on the Economics of Oil and Gas Markets

    Tischler, Benjamin

    2015-01-01

    Since the 1960s hydrocarbons like crude oil and natural gas have been the most important energy source to fuel the world economy. Despite high recent growth rates for renewable energies, hydro- carbons are expected to be a dominant source of energy for several decades to come. In the last 20 years not only fundamental trends, but also singular events such as the financial crisis have shaped the development of crude oil and natural gas markets as well as the corresponding academic debate. On a...

  11. 13th CERI [Canadian Energy Research Inst.] international oil and gas markets conference

    1994-01-01

    At an oil and gas industry conference, papers were presented on world oil supply and demand, energy geopolitics, world oil prices, the status of the Chinese oil/gas industry and prospects for exploration and development, Latin American oil/gas markets and development opportunities, the oil and gas industries in non-OPEC Middle East countries (Oman, Yemen, Turkey), oil and gas markets in North America, and financial and regulatory aspects of domestic gas markets in Canada and the USA. Separate abstracts have been prepared for 17 papers from this conference

  12. Market Penetration Simulation of Hydrogen Powered Vehicles in Korea

    Eunju Jun; Yong Hoon, Jeong; Soon Heung, Chang

    2006-01-01

    As oil price being boosted, hydrogen has been considered to be a strong candidate for the future energy carrier along with electricity. Although hydrogen can be produced by many energy sources, carbon-free sources such as nuclear and renewable energy may be ideal ones due to their environmental friendliness. For the analysis of hydrogen economy, the cost and market penetration of various end-use technologies are the most important factors in production and consumer side, respectively. Particularly, hydrogen powered vehicle is getting more interests as fuel cell technologies are developed. In this paper, the hydrogen powered vehicle penetration into the transportation market is simulated. A system dynamic code, Vensim, was utilized to simulate the dynamics in the transportation, assuming various types of vehicle such as gasoline, hybrid electricity and hydrogen powered. Market shares of each vehicle are predicted by using currently available data. The result showed that hydrogen era will not be bright as we think. To reach the era of hydrogen fuel cell cost should be reduced dramatically. And if the hydrogen cost which includes both operating and capital cost reaches to a $0.16 per kilometer, hydrogen portion can be a 50 percent in the transportation sector. However, if strong policy or subsidy can be given, the result will be changed. [1] (authors)

  13. Oil market strengthening in the second half of 1992

    Beck, R.J.

    1992-01-01

    This paper reports that the economy and events in the Middle East continue to drive the oil market. Saudi Arabia's decision in March to reduce crude oil output boosted prices by about $3/bbl and may have signaled a significant change in the kingdom's price strategy. With Kuwaiti production capacity still less then its levels before the Iraqi invasion of 1990, with Iraqi exports still crimped by an international embargo, and with Saudi Arabia producing less than before, the market looks tight for the rest of the year. Last year's war to liberate Kuwait temporarily eliminated much of the surplus production capacity with which the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries had grappled for several years. This year, oil supply and demand have stayed in rough balance, even with Kuwaiti crude returning to the market. Two prospects have made traders nervous: resumption of Iraqi exports at significant levels and deliberate Saudi overproduction aimed at suppressing prices. The Saudi production cut put one of those fears to temporary rest. And negotiations between Baghdad and the United Nations over the Iraqi embargo seem unlikely to produce results for at least a while. Demand growth, meanwhile, will depend on economic performances of key oil consuming countries. In the US, modest economic recovery has increased industrial activity and stimulated demand for petroleum products. Crude oil and product prices began rising in April. Refiner additions to crude stocks have further added to the call on shrinking crude supplies, helping to lift prices. In turn, product prices have risen. With continued economic growth, prices will climb modestly throughout the year

  14. Oil and natural gas market: a transitional year

    Appert, Olivier

    2007-01-01

    Year 2006 represented a transitional year for the oil market: a moderate demand growth and a slowdown of price rise, that will possibly be more significant in 2007. As to the long term, the feeling is anyway pointing at important model tensions and high prices prevailing. As a consequence, governments have to develop a more active energy policy, also when deciding on the actions to be undertaken to manage worldwide climatic change [it

  15. Dynamic linkages among the gold market, US dollar and crude oil market

    Mo, Bin; Nie, He; Jiang, Yonghong

    2018-02-01

    This paper aims to examine the dynamic linkages among the gold market, US dollar and crude oil market. The analysis also delves more deeply into the effect of the global financial crisis on the short-term relationship. We use fractional cointegration to analyze the long-term memory feature of these volatility processes to investigate whether they are tied through a common long-term equilibrium. The DCC-MGARCH model is employed to investigate the time-varying long-term linkages among these markets. The Krystou-Labys non-linear asymmetric Granger causality method is used to examine the effect of the financial crisis. We find that (i) there is clearly a long-term dependence among these markets; (ii) the dynamic gold-oil relationship is always positive and the oil-dollar relationship is always negative; and (iii) after the crisis, we can observe evidence of a positive non-linear causal relationship from gold to US dollar and US dollar to crude oil, and a negative non-linear causal relationship from US dollar to gold. Investors who want to construct their optimal portfolios and policymakers who aim to make effective macroeconomic policies should take these findings into account.

  16. Simulating water markets with transaction costs

    Erfani, Tohid; Binions, Olga; Harou, Julien J.

    2014-06-01

    This paper presents an optimization model to simulate short-term pair-wise spot-market trading of surface water abstraction licenses (water rights). The approach uses a node-arc multicommodity formulation that tracks individual supplier-receiver transactions in a water resource network. This enables accounting for transaction costs between individual buyer-seller pairs and abstractor-specific rules and behaviors using constraints. Trades are driven by economic demand curves that represent each abstractor's time-varying water demand. The purpose of the proposed model is to assess potential hydrologic and economic outcomes of water markets and aid policy makers in designing water market regulations. The model is applied to the Great Ouse River basin in Eastern England. The model assesses the potential weekly water trades and abstractions that could occur in a normal and a dry year. Four sectors (public water supply, energy, agriculture, and industrial) are included in the 94 active licensed water diversions. Each license's unique environmental restrictions are represented and weekly economic water demand curves are estimated. Rules encoded as constraints represent current water management realities and plausible stakeholder-informed water market behaviors. Results show buyers favor sellers who can supply large volumes to minimize transactions. The energy plant cooling and agricultural licenses, often restricted from obtaining water at times when it generates benefits, benefit most from trades. Assumptions and model limitations are discussed. This article was corrected on 13 JUN 2014. See the end of the full text for details.

  17. A literature review of demand studies in world oil markets

    Atkins, F.; Tayyebi Jazayeri, S.M.

    2004-04-01

    The literature on world oil market demands was reviewed, summarized and organized into seven major groupings. The objective was to model economic behaviour before and after price shocks. In particular, the paper demonstrated how the price elasticity of demand in world oil markets is estimated. It also showed how the relationship between energy and oil consumption and income are estimated. The income elasticity of demand was also estimated, and empirical estimates of the elasticity of aggregate output regarding crude oil and energy prices were presented. The paper also referred to the transportation sector and estimates of the changing nature of seasonal factors. The review showed that there is much heterogeneity of econometric results. The literature showed that demand increased considerably in response to the price shocks of the 1970s, but these shocks were reversed in the 1980s when the increase in demand did not correspond with the decrease in price. Some of the literature is driven by the belief that there must be a stable, non-linear model that fits the data both before and after price shocks. The authors question whether this could be true and propose an alternative hypothesis that there is a different model that pertains to economic behaviour after price shocks. 15 refs., 7 tabs., 1 fig

  18. Long-term prospects for oil market stability

    Subroto, Dr [OPEC, Vienna (AT)

    1989-10-01

    OPEC recognize that energy consumption has its social costs and benefits, and that some energy sources impose fewer costs on society. We must consider the environmental implications of oil extraction. Our policies today should enable future generations to secure their energy needs, and OPEC is well-positioned to supply them. An inward-looking OPEC, distracted by internal wranglings and inconsistencies, cannot expect to be a stabilizing force in the oil markets. We have sought, therefore, to put our own house in order. Aside from the debate on depletion policy, a major strain on OPEC stability is the growing tendency towards regionalization in the world oil market. And the absence of universally acceptable quota allocation criteria means that OPEC may have to live with instability for some time to come, but this will be manageable in the short run. In the medium term, however, the call on OPEC oil in the 1990s is predicted to rise to a level commensurate with the sustainable capacities of member states. Producers and consumers have a common interest and should share a similar perspective on the inter-dependence between energy, the environment and economic development. (author).

  19. Marketing strategy for the BC oil and gas service sector

    NONE

    2004-10-29

    The British Columbia (BC) oil and gas service sector is collaborating with the BC Ministry of Energy and Mines (MEM) to enhance the competitiveness of oil and gas service providers in Northeast BC. The MEM agreed to provide one-time funding to develop this marketing strategy for the oil and gas sector, particularly for small to medium-sized companies with limited resources. This document is also a resource tool for suppliers in the sector that have developed and are implementing their own marketing plans and wish to enhance elements of their own plans. The strategy also outlines the potential role of associations in Northeast BC that represent the service sector. It links their marketing activities with the activities of individual service providers. Local service providers (LSP) include companies in a wide range of businesses such as drilling support, transportation, health and safety services, and construction. Six issues that directly impact the competitiveness of LSPs were also presented along with recommendations for participants in the service sector, associations and individual companies. tabs., figs., 11 appendices.

  20. Marketing strategy for the BC oil and gas service sector

    2004-01-01

    The British Columbia (BC) oil and gas service sector is collaborating with the BC Ministry of Energy and Mines (MEM) to enhance the competitiveness of oil and gas service providers in Northeast BC. The MEM agreed to provide one-time funding to develop this marketing strategy for the oil and gas sector, particularly for small to medium-sized companies with limited resources. This document is also a resource tool for suppliers in the sector that have developed and are implementing their own marketing plans and wish to enhance elements of their own plans. The strategy also outlines the potential role of associations in Northeast BC that represent the service sector. It links their marketing activities with the activities of individual service providers. Local service providers (LSP) include companies in a wide range of businesses such as drilling support, transportation, health and safety services, and construction. Six issues that directly impact the competitiveness of LSPs were also presented along with recommendations for participants in the service sector, associations and individual companies. tabs., figs., 11 appendices

  1. Development of the German mineral oil market in 1995. Pt. 2

    Mohnfeld, J.; Heinze, W.

    1996-01-01

    Following a brief glance at the boundary conditions for the German market (world oil market, inland energy consumption), the development of inland sales is described. One after one, the mineral oil products Otto engine fuel, diesel fuel, light fuel oil and heavy fuel oil are considered. Further sections deal with crude oil supply, the supply of mineral oil produce, refinery production, the development in the sales sector, the profit situation of the mineral oil industry, the development of prices (according to products) and expenditure in foreign exchange for mineral oil. The article contains numerous tables and graphs; comparisons with the years previously illustrate development trends. (UA) [de

  2. Relationships between oil price shocks and stock market: An empirical analysis from China

    Cong Ronggang; Wei Yiming; Jiao Jianlin; Fan Ying

    2008-01-01

    This paper investigates the interactive relationships between oil price shocks and Chinese stock market using multivariate vector auto-regression. Oil price shocks do not show statistically significant impact on the real stock returns of most Chinese stock market indices, except for manufacturing index and some oil companies. Some 'important' oil price shocks depress oil company stock prices. Increase in oil volatility may increase the speculations in mining index and petrochemicals index, which raise their stock returns. Both the world oil price shocks and China oil price shocks can explain much more than interest rates for manufacturing index

  3. Relationships between oil price shocks and stock market: An empirical analysis from China

    Cong, Ronggang; Wei, Yi-Ming; Jiao, Jian-Ling

    2008-01-01

    This paper investigates the interactive relationships between oil price shocks and Chinese stock market using multivariate vector auto-regression. Oil price shocks do not show statistically significant impact on the real stock returns of most Chinese stock market indices, except for manufacturing...... index and some oil companies. Some “important” oil price shocks depress oil company stock prices. Increase in oil volatility may increase the speculations in mining index and petrochemicals index, which raise their stock returns. Both the world oil price shocks and China oil price shocks can explain...

  4. Cross-correlations between crude oil and exchange markets for selected oil rich economies

    Li, Jianfeng; Lu, Xinsheng; Zhou, Ying

    2016-07-01

    Using multifractal detrended cross-correlation analysis (MF-DCCA), this paper studies the cross-correlation behavior between crude oil market and five selected exchange rate markets. The dataset covers the period of January 1,1996-December 31,2014, and contains 4,633 observations for each of the series, including daily closing prices of crude oil, Australian Dollars, Canadian Dollars, Mexican Pesos, Russian Rubles, and South African Rand. Our empirical results obtained from cross-correlation statistic and cross-correlation coefficient have confirmed the existence of cross-correlations, and the MF-DCCA results have demonstrated a strong multifractality between cross-correlated crude oil market and exchange rate markets in both short term and long term. Using rolling window analysis, we have also found the persistent cross-correlations between the exchange rates and crude oil returns, and the cross-correlation scaling exponents exhibit volatility during some time periods due to its sensitivity to sudden events.

  5. Transporting US oil imports: The impact of oil spill legislation on the tanker market

    Rowland, P.J.

    1992-05-01

    The Oil Pollution Act of 1990 (''OPA'') and an even more problematic array of State pollution laws have raised the cost, and risk, of carrying oil into and out of the US. This report, prepared under contract to the US Department of energy's Office of Domestic and International Policy, examines the impact of Federal and State oil spill legislation on the tanker market. It reviews the role of marine transportation in US oil supply, explores the OPA and State oil spill laws, studies reactions to OPA in the tanker and tank barge industries and in related industries such as insurance and ship finance, and finally, discusses the likely developments in the years ahead. US waterborne oil imports amounted to 6.5 million B/D in 1991, three-quarters of which was crude oil. Imports will rise by almost 3 million B/D by 2000 according to US Department of energy forecasts, with most of the crude oil growth after 1995. Tanker demand will grow even faster: most of the US imports and the increased traffic to other world consuming regions will be on long-haul trades. Both the number of US port calls by tankers and the volume of offshore lightering will grow. Every aspect of the tanker industry's behavior is affected by OPA and a variety of State pollution laws

  6. Transporting US oil imports: The impact of oil spill legislation on the tanker market

    Rowland, P.J. (Rowland (P.) Associates (United States))

    1992-05-01

    The Oil Pollution Act of 1990 ( OPA'') and an even more problematic array of State pollution laws have raised the cost, and risk, of carrying oil into and out of the US. This report, prepared under contract to the US Department of energy's Office of Domestic and International Policy, examines the impact of Federal and State oil spill legislation on the tanker market. It reviews the role of marine transportation in US oil supply, explores the OPA and State oil spill laws, studies reactions to OPA in the tanker and tank barge industries and in related industries such as insurance and ship finance, and finally, discusses the likely developments in the years ahead. US waterborne oil imports amounted to 6.5 million B/D in 1991, three-quarters of which was crude oil. Imports will rise by almost 3 million B/D by 2000 according to US Department of energy forecasts, with most of the crude oil growth after 1995. Tanker demand will grow even faster: most of the US imports and the increased traffic to other world consuming regions will be on long-haul trades. Both the number of US port calls by tankers and the volume of offshore lightering will grow. Every aspect of the tanker industry's behavior is affected by OPA and a variety of State pollution laws.

  7. Electricity Markets Ontology to Support MASCEM's Simulations

    Santos, Gabriel; Pinto, Tiago; Vale, Zita

    2016-01-01

    the several issues related to these systems, including the involved players that act in this domain. To take better advantage of these systems, their integration is mandatory. The main contribution of this paper is the development of the Electricity Markets Ontology, which integrates the essential concepts...... necessary to interpret all the available information related to electricity markets, while enabling an easier cooperation and adequate communication between related systems. Additionally, the concepts and rules defined by this ontology can be extended and complemented according to the needs of other......Power systems worldwide are complex and challenging environments. The increasing necessity for an adequate integration of renewable energy sources is resulting in a rising complexity in power systems operation. Multi-agent based simulation platforms have proven to be a good option to study...

  8. The Chinese Olive Oil Market Today Import Prices,Market Segments, Opportunities and Challenges%The Chinese Olive Oil Market Today Import Prioes,Market Segments, Opportunities and Challenges

    Mateo Radnic

    2011-01-01

    @@ Ⅰ .EDIBLE OIL CONSUMPTION IN CHINA According to the data of Edible Oil Consumption in China,this market has constantly growth over the last years, doublingits size in only 8 years.For the past year 2010, the market sizereaches over 29 thousand tons.

  9. Realistic electricity market simulator for energy and economic studies

    Bernal-Agustin, Jose L.; Contreras, Javier; Conejo, Antonio J.; Martin-Flores, Raul

    2007-01-01

    Electricity market simulators have become a useful tool to train engineers in the power industry. With the maturing of electricity markets throughout the world, there is a need for sophisticated software tools that can replicate the actual behavior of power markets. In most of these markets, power producers/consumers submit production/demand bids and the Market Operator clears the market producing a single price per hour. What makes markets different from each other are the bidding rules and the clearing algorithms to balance the market. This paper presents a realistic simulator of the day-ahead electricity market of mainland Spain. All the rules that govern this market are modeled. This simulator can be used either to train employees by power companies or to teach electricity markets courses in universities. To illustrate the tool, several realistic case studies are presented and discussed. (author)

  10. Relationship between Gold and Oil Prices and Stock Market Returns

    Muhammad Mansoor Baig

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available This study objective to examine the relationship between gold prices, oil prices and KSE100 return. This study important for the investor whose want to invest in real assets and financial assets. This study helps investor to achieve the portfolio diversification. This study uses the monthly data of gold prices, KSE100, and oil prices for the period of 2000 to 2010 (monthly. This study applied Descriptive statistics, Augmented Dickey Fuller test Phillip Perron test, Johansen and Jelseluis Co-integration test, Variance Decomposition test to find relationship. This study concludes that Gold prices growth, Oil prices growth and KSE100 return have no significant relationship in the long run. This study provides information to the investors who want to get the benefit of diversification by investing in Gold, Oil and stock market. In the current era Gold prices and oil prices are fluctuating day by day and investors think that stock returns may or may not affected by these fluctuations. This study is unique because it focuses on current issues and takes the current data in this research to help the investment institutions or portfolio managers.

  11. Review of Alberta Crown Crude Oil Marketing Program

    Crandall, G. R.; Kromm, R. B.

    1999-01-01

    This report contains an independent evaluation of the operations of the private marketing agents that are currently marketing the Alberta Crown's share of royalty crude oil. The evaluation includes a review of pricing performance, working relationship, current issues and the overall performance of the marketing arrangements during the fiscal years of 1997 and 1998. Overall, the outsourcing of sales of Crown production to agents is judged to be successful. For example, it has been noted that agents are becoming more aggressive in maintaining and increasing their margins. On the other hand, the increased level of aggressiveness in marketing, while tending to maximize Crown revenues, is also creating a potential conflict on how margins should be shared between the Crown and its agents. Also, there has been evidence of some management issues between the agents and the Crown concerning the extent to which the Crown should share in any increased value which the agent generates by increased third party marketing activities. These differences need to be addressed in order to maintain the strong performance of the marketing program. The consultants also recommend additional guidelines on risk management issues that more clearly define the Crown's risk tolerance. 2 tabs., 4 figs

  12. Volatility spillovers in China’s crude oil, corn and fuel ethanol markets

    Haixia, Wu; Shiping, Li

    2013-01-01

    Price volatility spillovers among China’s crude oil, corn and fuel ethanol markets are analyzed based on weekly price data from September 5, 2003 to August 31, 2012, employing the univariate EGARCH model and the BEKK-MVGARCH model, respectively. The empirical results indicate a higher interaction among crude oil, corn and fuel ethanol markets after September, 2008. In the overall sample period, the results simultaneously provide strong evidence that there exist unidirectional spillover effects from the crude oil market to the corn and fuel ethanol markets, and double-directional spillovers between the corn market and the fuel ethanol market. However, the spillover effects from the corn and fuel ethanol markets to the crude oil market are not significant. -- Highlights: •Employing univariate EGARCH model and BEKK-MVGARCH model, respectively. Unidirectional spillover effects from crude oil market to corn and fuel ethanol markets. •Double-directional spillovers between corn market and fuel ethanol market. •The spillover effects from corn and fuel ethanol markets to crude oil market are not significant. •The empirical results indicate a higher interaction among crude oil, corn and fuel ethanol markets after September, 2008

  13. Heavy crude oil and synthetic crude market outlook

    Crandall, G.R.

    1997-01-01

    This presentation included an outline of the international heavy crude supply and demand versus Canadian heavy crude supply and disposition, and pricing outlook for synthetic crudes. Differences among crude oils such as light sweet, light sour, heavy and bitumen were described and illustrated with respect to their gravity, API, percentage of sulphur, metals and nitrogen. Internationally, heavy and sour crude supplies are forecast to increase significantly over the next four years. Discoveries of light sour crude in offshore Gulf of Mexico will provide a major new source of sour crude to U.S. Gulf Coast refineries. Venezuela's supplies of heavy and sour crude are also expected to increase over the next few years. Mexico and Canada have plans to increase their heavy crude production. All of the crudes will be aimed at the U.S. Gulf Coast and Midwest markets. Pentanes and condensates are also expected to increase based on the growing Canadian natural gas production. Diluent demand will also grow to match Canadian heavy crude/bitumen production. U.S. midwest refiners are proposing expansions to allow them to process more Canadian heavy crude oil. At present, only a few refineries are equipped to process significant amounts of synthetic crude. It was suggested that to absorb available heavy and synthetic production, increased penetration into both Canadian and U.S. markets will be required. Some refineries may have to be modified to process heavy and synthetic oil supplies. Heavy oil and synthetic producers may need to develop relationships with refiners such as joint ventures and term supply agreements to secure markets. 2 tabs., 12 figs

  14. High freight rates hinder oil markets' return to equilibrium

    Anon

    2005-01-01

    Hurricane damage to refineries in the US has created shortages of refined products there, boosting imports and sending freight rates across the Atlantic to record levels. The situation was made worse for a time by a strike at France's main oil terminals in the Mediterranean, which prevented some oil tankers from being rapidly redeployed to routes across the Atlantic. Worldscale (WS) rates for routes from the UK and Europe to the US Atlantic and Gulf Coasts rose well above WS500 for clean tonnage during October. High rates were nevertheless not simply confined to product tankers crossing the Atlantic. Rates for crude tankers to the US have also risen, and tightness has begun to appear in some other markets as well. The net result has been to slow down the movement of oil from regions of surplus to those of scarcity, depressing prices in the former and keeping them at high levels in the latter. Atlantic tanker markets look like remaining tight for the rest of the year and perhaps beyond. (author)

  15. Dynamics of heating oil market prices in Europe

    Indjehagopian, J.P.; Lantz, F.; Simon, V.

    2000-01-01

    This paper concerns the German and French heating oil market and attempts to establish long- and short-term relationships between German and French monthly heating oil prices in dollars, the Rotterdam spot price for the same product and the DM/US$ and FF/US$ exchange rates during the period from January 1987 to December 1997. To model the market over the period under consideration, incorporating the Gulf War, we have used conventional unit root tests and sequential tests allowing structural changes. Long-term relationships, with shifts in regime detected by cointegration tests taking structural breaks into consideration, are estimated. The short-term dynamics defined by a vector error correction (VEC) mechanism is derived in a classic manner when in presence of a cointegrated VAR system. The econometric results obtained are commented on from an economic point of view. Weak exogeneity tests are performed and the conditional VEC model is deduced, enabling measurement of the instantaneous impact of variations in weakly exogenous exchange rates on variations in heating oil prices in Germany and France. Lastly, a study is made of the asymmetric reaction of domestic prices to positive and negative variations in exchange rates and the Rotterdam spot quotation. 25 refs

  16. Medium-Term Oil Market Report 2013: Market Trends and Projections to 2018

    NONE

    2013-06-01

    The global oil market will undergo sweeping changes over the next five years. The 2013 Medium-Term Oil Market Report evaluates the impact of these changes on the global oil system by 2018 based on all that we know today – current expectations of economic growth, existing or announced policies and regulations, commercially proven technologies, field decline rates, investment programmes (upstream, midstream and downstream), etc. The five-year forecast period corresponds to the length of the typical investment cycle and as such is critical to policymakers and market participants. This Report shows, in detailed but concise terms, why the ongoing North American hydrocarbon revolution is a ''game changer''. The region’s expected contribution to supply growth, however impressive, is only part of the story: Crude quality, infrastructure requirements, current regulations, and the potential for replication elsewhere are bound to spark a chain reaction that will leave few links in the global oil supply chain unaffected. While North America is expected to lead medium-term supply growth, the East-of- Suez region is in the lead on the demand side. Non-OECD oil demand, led by Asia and the Middle East, looks set to overtake the OECD for the first time as early as 2Q13 and will widen its lead afterwards. Non-OECD economies are already home to over half global refining capacity. With that share only expected to grow by 2018, the non-OECD region will be firmly entrenched as the world’s largest crude importer. These and other changes are carefully laid out in this Report, which also examines recent and future changes in global oil storage, shifts in OPEC production capacity and crude and product trade, and the consequences of the ongoing refinery construction boom in emerging markets and developing economies. It is required reading for anyone engaged in policy or investment decision-making in the energy sphere, and those more broadly interested in the oil

  17. Investor herds and oil prices evidence in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC equity markets

    Talat Ulussever

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper scrutinizes the effect of crude oil prices on herd behavior among investors in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC stock markets. Using firm level data from Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Oman, Kuwait, Bahrain, Dubai and Abu Dhabi stock exchanges, we examine equity return dispersions within industry portfolios and test whether investor herds exist in these markets. We then assess whether crude oil price movements have any effect on the investment behavior of traders in the aforementioned markets. Our findings reveal significant evidence supporting herd behavior in all GCC equity markets with the exception of Oman and Qatar, more consistently during periods of market losses. Furthermore, we find significant oil price effects on herd behavior in these markets, particularly during periods of extreme positive changes in the price of oil. Our findings suggest that investors’ tendency to act as a herd in the said markets is significantly affected by the developments in the oil market.

  18. Simulating market dynamics : Interactions between consumer psychology and social networks

    Janssen, M.A; Jager, W.

    2003-01-01

    Markets can show different types of dynamics, from quiet markets dominated by one or a few products, to markets with continual penetration of new and reintroduced products. in a previous article we explored the dynamics of markets from a psychological perspective using a multi-agent simulation

  19. Markets during world oil supply crises: an analysis of industry, consumer, and governmental response

    Erfle, Stephen; Pound, John; Kalt, Joseph

    1981-04-01

    An analysis of the response of American markets to supply crises in world oil markets is presented. It addresses four main issues: the efficiency of the operation of American oil markets during oil supply crises; the problems of both economic efficiency and social equity which arise during the American adaptation process; the propriety of the Federal government's past policy responses to these problems; and the relationship between perceptions of the problems caused by world oil crises and the real economic natures of these problems. Specifically, Chapter 1 presents a theoretical discussion of the effects of a world supply disruption on the price level and supply availability of the world market oil to any consuming country including the US Chapter 2 provides a theoretical and empirical analysis of the efficiency of the adaptations of US oil product markets to higher world oil prices. Chapter 3 examines the responses of various groups of US oil firms to the alterations observed in world markets, while Chapter 4 presents a theoretical explanation for the price-lagging behavior exhibited by firms in the US oil industry. Chapter 5 addresses the nature of both real and imagined oil market problems in the US during periods of world oil market transition. (MCW)

  20. OPEC and the international oil market: can a cartel fuel the engine of economic development?

    Noguera, Jose; Pecchenino, R. A.

    2007-01-01

    Roč. 25, č. 1 (2007), s. 187-199 ISSN 0167-7187 Institutional research plan: CEZ:MSM0021620846 Keywords : OPEC * International oil market * oil export Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 0.464, year: 2007

  1. Oil refining and product marketing developments in southeast Asia

    Szabo, A.M.

    1992-01-01

    Views on the future are based on supplies from a relatively stable Middle East and continued economic growth in the southeast Asian and Pacific countries. Under these circumstances the oil market for the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) will expand considerably during the decade of the 90's. Pacific country demand, 5.92 MMB/D, in 1990 is likely to grow to 7.06 MMB/D in 2000. Regional production could supply about 40% of this. The Asia-Pacific shortage of refining capacity could lead to high regional refined product prices and health refining profit margins. (author)

  2. The market and the economics of large oil tankers

    Golomer, O.

    1996-01-01

    The document aims to assist decision makers in the tanker industry to make effective management strategies for the future deployment of Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCC) in a time of financial uncertainty and environmental awareness. The VLCC market is described and the factors influencing decision-makers are discussed. Financial considerations including shipping assets and company financial security are reviewed together with the financial implications of operating VLCCs. Environmental pressures, such as international regulations an oil pollution reduction measures are then discussed. The document closes with a review of decision-making for shipowning companies in this complex milieu. (UK)

  3. Challenges of executing heavy oil projects in today's market

    Brunka, G.

    2001-01-01

    Alberta's industrial project scene from 1981 to 2000 was presented in this power point presentation with particular focus on proposed bitumen recovery projects and heavy oil project challenges. A graph depicting GTG world orders by region (Americas, Asia and Europe) showed that U.S. market continues to drive global growth. Major industrial projects in Alberta were highlighted and employment requirements by sector were outlined. In addition, mitigation measures that are needed to successfully deal with the unique challenges of today's market were described. It was noted that in recent years lower capital expenditure by the industry in general has resulted in corporate downsizing or mergers which in turn have resulted in lower technical and operational knowledge. Some of the current challenges facing the industry are new demands for water treatment expertise and an aging workforce. It was concluded that effective mitigation will require a disciplined approach within a flexible framework.1 tab., 7 figs

  4. Stability factors for OPEC and the oil market

    Yousfi, Y.

    1991-01-01

    The nationalizations of the 1970s, as well as the 1973 and 1979 sharp price increases which heightened OPEC's notoriety, considerably exaggerated the organization's image of strength, power, and dominance. In contrast, the 1980s-which witnesses the murderous war between two OPEC founding members, the shrinkage of the energy market, the emergence of new oil exporters, the dramatic price collapse in early 1986, and acute economic crises in a great number of member countries-have framed OPEC as a weak and powerless organization, incapable of enforcing any discipline or establishing any dialogue with its competitors. This paper reports that in this period of market depression, the end of a cartel-or at best its breaking apart-became common talk as too much emphasis was placed on the deep antagonisms between the rich, less populated member countries and those with dense population and relatively low income

  5. The Effects of Crude Oil on Stock Markets with use of Markov Switching Models

    Wiese, Thor August Mediaas

    2016-01-01

    In this thesis, a two regime Markov switching (MS) model is implemented to examine the relationship between crude oil, both brent oil and WTI, and stock markets. In particular, the model is applied to stock markets in both oil importing and exporting countries which include Canada, China, Japan, Germany, Netherlands, Norway, the United Kingdom and the United States. This paper first evaluates the significance of oil parameters in the detected regimes, where the two regimes respond to low mean...

  6. Transporting US oil imports: The impact of oil spill legislation on the tanker market

    1992-06-01

    This report looks at the impact of the Oil Pollution Act of 1990 and the developing State oil spill regulations on the tanker and coastal barge markets, and at the implications for the future of the U.S. seaborne petroleum trades. The analysis relied on a dual approach. Because much of the legislation, both State and Federal, is still evolving--particularly with respect to implementing regulations--as yet there can be no definitive assessment of its impact. Consequently a quantitative analysis of fleets, trades, and vessel movements, was complemented by extensive interviews. Discussions have been held with oil companies large and small, shipowners, charterers, insurance companies, classification societies, and a variety of public and private institutions active in the maritime industry. All interviews were conducted in confidence: no individual views are identified in the report. (AT)

  7. Workshop Papers: Directions and Marketing of Synthetic Crude Oil and Heavy Oil

    1997-01-01

    This workshop was organized by the National Centre for Upgrading Technology in an effort to bring together experts from the various sectors of the petroleum industry to outline their views of the directions that the synthetic crude oil market will pursue over the next decade and into the 21. century. The motivation for the Workshop came from the many announcements during 1996 and 1997 by several Canadian oil companies about plans to initiate or expand their heavy oil and synthetic crude production. During the same period, at least one US refiner also announced plans to revamp an existing refinery to allow it to process Canadian heavy oil and synthetic crude. The workshop was organized to review these plans and to discuss such questions as (1) Would the selected technologies be the familiar carbon rejection or hydrogen addition methods, or would there be radical advanced technologies? (2) Would the products be fully or partially upgraded? (3) How would they be processed in the refinery? (4) Would there be a market? This collection of papers or viewgraphs comprise all the formal presentations given at the workshop. The final section also contains the edited notes recorded during the question and answer periods. refs., tabs., figs

  8. The oil market and international agreements on CO2 emissions

    Berger, K.; Fimreite, O.; Golombek, R.; Hoel, M.

    1992-01-01

    According to most scientists, greenhouse gas emissions must be reduced significantly relative to current trends to avoid dramatic adverse climatic changes during the next century. CO 2 is the most important greenhouse gas, so any international agreement will certainly cover CO 2 emissions. Any international agreement to reduce emissions of CO 2 is going to have a significant impact on the markets for fossil fuels. The analysis shows that it is not only the amount of CO 2 emissions permitted in an agreement which matters for fossil fuel prices, but also the type of agreement. Two obvious forms of agreements, which under certain assumptions both are cost efficient, are (a) tradeable emission permits, and (b) an international CO 2 tax. If the fossil fuel markets were perfectly competitive, these two types of agreements would have the same effect on the producer price of fossil fuels. However, fossil fuel markets are not completely competitive. It is shown that, under imperfect competition, direct regulation of the 'tradeable quotas' type tends to imply higher producer prices and a larger efficiency loss than an international CO 2 tax giving the same total CO 2 emissions. A numerical illustration of the oil market indicates that the difference in producer prices for the two types of CO 2 agreements is quite significant. 6 refs., 2 figs., 2 tabs

  9. The oil market and international agreements on CO2 emissions

    Berger, K.; Fimreite, Oe.; Golombek, R.; Hoel, M.

    1991-01-01

    In order to avoid a relatively large risk of dramatic adverse climatic changes during the next century, greenhouse gas emissions must be reduced significantly relative to present emissions. CO 2 is the most important greenhouse gas, so any international agreement will certainly cover CO 2 emissions. Any international agreement to reduce emissions of CO 2 is going to have a significant impact on the markets for fossil fuels. The analysis shows that is not only the amount of CO 2 emissions permitted in an agreement which matters for fossil fuel prices, but also the type of agreement. Two obvious forms of agreements, which under certain assumptions both are cost efficient, are (a) tradeable emission permits, and (b) an international CO 2 tax. If the fossil fuel markets were perfectly competitive, these two types of agreements would have the same effect on the producer price of fossil fuels. However, fossil fuel markets are not completely competitive. It is shown that, under imperfect competition, direct regulation of the ''tradeable quotas'' type tends to imply higher producer prices than an international CO 2 tax giving the same total CO 2 emissions. A numerical illustration of the oil market indicates that the difference in producer prices for the two types of CO 2 agreements is quite significant. 6 refs., 2 figs., 1 tab

  10. The integration of China into the world crude oil market since 1998

    Li, Raymond; Leung, Guy C.K.

    2011-01-01

    The integration of China into the world oil market is an important issue for at least two reasons. First, the influence of the country on the world oil market is dependent on the level of the integration. Second, integration into the world oil market means that China is opening itself up to potential disturbances in the world market and this leads to significant energy security concerns for the country. The aim of this paper is to investigate whether or not China is an integral part of the world oil market. By reviewing the relevant trade and pricing policies of the Chinese government as well as the behavior of the Chinese national oil companies, we find that China is actively engaging itself in the world oil market. Our time-series results show that the Chinese oil price is cointegrated with the major oil prices in the world and a high degree of co-movement between the prices is found. Causality between the price pairs is found to be bi-directional in most cases. The empirical results suggest that China is now an integral part of the world oil market. - Highlights: → Review of the oil trade and pricing policies of the Chinese government. → Review of the behavior of the Chinese national oil companies. → China is actively engaging itself in the world oil market. → Shipment data show that China can no longer be regarded as a separate market. → Strong co-movement between the Chinese oil price and the international oil prices.

  11. Price dynamics of crude oil and the regional ethylene markets

    Masih, Mansur; Algahtani, Ibrahim; De Mello, Lurion

    2010-01-01

    This paper is the first attempt to investigate: (1) is the crude oil (WTI) price significantly related to the regional ethylene prices in the Naphtha intensive ethylene markets of the Far East, North West Europe, and the Mediterranean? (2) What drives the regional ethylene prices? The paper is motivated by the recent and growing debate on the lead-lag relationship between crude oil and ethylene prices. Our findings, based on the long-run structural modelling approach of Pesaran and Shin, and subject to the limitations of the study, tend to suggest: (1) crude oil (WTI) price is cointegrated with the regional ethylene prices (2) our within-sample error-correction model results tend to indicate that although the ethylene prices in North West Europe and the Mediterranean were weakly endogenous, the Far East ethylene price was weakly exogenous both in the short and long term. These results are consistent, during most of the period under review (2000.1-2006.4) with the surge in demand for ethylene throughout the Far East, particularly in China and South Korea. However, during the post-sample forecast period as evidenced in our variance decompositions analysis, the emergence of WTI as a leading player as well, is consistent with the recent surge in WTI price (fuelled mainly, among others, by the strong hedging activities in the WTI futures/options and refining tightness) reflecting the growing importance of input cost in determining the dynamic interactions of input and product prices. (author)

  12. Big questions cloud Iraq's future role in world oil market

    Tippee, B.

    1992-01-01

    This paper reports that Iraq raises questions for the world oil market beyond those frequently asked about when and under what circumstances it will resume exports. Two wars since 1981 have obscured encouraging results from a 20 year exploration program that were only beginning to come to light when Iraq invaded Kuwait in August 1990. Those results indicate the country might someday be able to produce much more than the 3.2 million b/d it was flowing before a United Nations embargo blocked exports. If exploratory potential is anywhere near what officials asserted in the late 1980s, and if Iraq eventually turns hospitable to international capital, the country could become a world class opportunity for oil companies as well as an exporter with productive capacity approaching that of Saudi Arabia. But political conditions can change quickly. Under a new, secular regime, Iraq might welcome non-Iraqi oil companies and capital as essential to economic recovery. It's a prospect that warrants a new industry look at what the country has revealed about its geology and exploration history

  13. Testing the evolution of crude oil market efficiency: Data have the conn

    Zhang, Bing; Li, Xiao-Ming; He, Fei

    2014-01-01

    Utilising a time-varying GAR (1)-TGARCH (1,1) model with different frequency data, we investigate the weak-form efficiency of major global crude oil spot markets in Europe, the US, the UAE and China for the period from December 2001 to August 2013. Our empirical results with weekly data indicate that all four markets have reached efficiency with few brief inefficient periods during the past decade, whereas the daily crude oil returns series suggest intermittent and inconsistent efficiency. We argue that the weekly Friday series fit the data better than the average series in autocorrelation tests. The evidence suggests that all four markets exhibit asymmetries in return-volatility reactions to different information shocks and that they react more strongly to bad news than to good news. The 2008 financial crisis has significantly affected the efficiency of oil markets. Furthermore, a comovement phenomenon and volatility spillover effects exist among the oil markets. Policy recommendations consistent with our empirical results are proposed, which address three issues: implementing prudential regulations, establishing an Asian pricing centre and improving transparency in crude oil spot markets. - Highlights: • We adopt a time-varying model to test the weak-form efficiency of crude oil markets. • Weekly oil returns series have been extremely efficient during the past decade. • Daily oil returns series have presented intermittent and inconsistent efficiency. • Oil markets react asymmetrically to different information shocks. • Policy recommendations are proposed according to the degree of efficiency

  14. The impacts of oil price shocks on stock market volatility: Evidence from the G7 countries

    Bastianin, Andrea; Conti, Francesca; Manera, Matteo

    2016-01-01

    We study the effects of crude oil price shocks on the stock market volatility of the G7 countries. We identify the causes underlying oil price shocks and gauge the impacts that oil supply and oil demand innovations have on financial volatility. We show that stock market volatility does not respond to oil supply shocks. On the contrary, demand shocks impact significantly on the volatility of the G7 stock markets. Our results suggest that economic policies and financial regulation activities designed to mitigate the adverse effects of unexpected oil price movements should be designed by looking at the source of the oil price shocks. - Highlights: • Effects of oil price shocks on the stock market volatility of the G7 countries. • Econometric identification of the different causes of oil shocks. • Stock market volatility does not respond to oil supply shocks. • Demand shocks impact significantly on stock market volatility. • Policy measures should be designed by considering the source of oil shocks.

  15. Chemical qualities of oils from some fresh and market vegetable ...

    JTEkanem

    production was examined by evaluating the oil yield and chemical qualities of oil extracted from fresh ... oil may be considered as Nigeria potential asset for biofuel and oleochemical production. Keywords: ..... standards for edible Arachis oil.

  16. Market opportunities in the oil and gas industry in China

    Shih, T.

    2004-01-01

    China is an emerging marketplace, with a Gross Domestic Product (GDP) ranked fourth, after the United States, the European Union and Japan. Imports to China have risen from 21 per cent in 2002 to 40 per cent in 2003, with over 54 billion dollars in direct foreign investment in 2003 alone. Private car ownership is also increasing. This paper provides a market overview of China, with specific reference to increases in energy demand fuelled by the rise of energy intensive industries such as steel, aluminum, chemicals and construction. It was noted that resource-based inputs are in need, as well as high tech goods and services. Canada has committed to doubling its trade with China by 2010. Current Canadian exports to China were overviewed. The current situation in the oil and gas sector in China were outlined, as well as a forecast of expected trends. It was suggested that a rise in domestic energy demand and instability in the Middle East was causing China to seek alternative, more secure sources of oil. Major players in the oil and gas industry in China were profiled, with an overview of domestic business, as well as potential future competitors in the sector. It was concluded that opportunities for onshore and offshore exploration and pre-drilling services were a viable option for Canadian investors. Technology and consulting services were also considered to be possible areas for trade development. A list of future projects in the Chinese oil and gas sector was provided, as well as details of necessary steps for entry into the industry and advice concerning intellectual property and legal protection. tabs., figs

  17. MASCEM: EPEX SPOT Day-Ahead market integration and simulation

    Santos, Gabriel; Fernandes, Ricardo; Pinto, Tiago

    2015-01-01

    . It is crucial to MASCEM to have the ability to simulate as many market models and player types as possible, thus enhancing the ability to recreate the electricity markets reality in its maximum possible extent. This paper presents the EPEX Spot Day-Ahead market integration in MASCEM. EPEX Spot SE's mission...

  18. A Marketing Perspective on Educational Games, Simulations and Workshops.

    Cryer, Patricia

    1989-01-01

    Examines the literature on marketing and uses the four elements of product, price, place, and promotion to elicit guidance for those who wish to market educational games, simulations, and workshops. Devising a marketing strategy centered on the customer is discussed, and the distinction between goods and services is described. (11 references)…

  19. A unified world oil market: Regions in physical, economic, geographic, and political space

    Kaufmann, Robert K.; Banerjee, Shayan

    2014-01-01

    Although there is a general consensus that the market is unified, here we quantify the factors that create regions by analyzing the price relation between 33 crude oils. ADF statistics indicate that 447 of the 528 crude oil pairings cointegrate; 81 do not. The presence/absence of cointegration is analyzed using a logit model. The likelihood that the prices for two crude oils cointegrate depends on their physical characteristics (density and sulfur content), economic factors (country risk for the nation of origin), their geographic location (distance between supply ports), and political factors (OPEC membership). Over the sample period, the technology to refine heavy crude oils penetrates the market, and this reduces the price difference between heavy and light crude oils. The effect of country risk implies that crude oils from high risk nations are not perfect substitutes for crude oils of similar quality from low risk nations. Finally, crude oils from widely separated suppliers are more likely to cointegrate than crude oils from near-by nations, which suggests consumers diversify supply across transportation chokepoints. For this sample, these sources of regionalization add $0.20 per barrel to the $2.86 average price difference between crude oils in the same market. Together, these factors have important implications for the efficacy of policy aimed at reducing dependence on unreliable suppliers and the spill-over effects of holding inventories. - Highlights: • The world oil market is not completely unified. • Regions are defined by differences in API gravity and sulfur content. • Country risk regionalizes the world oil market. • Shipping chokepoints regionalize the world oil market. • Regionalization adds $0.20 to $2.86 price difference between oils in same market

  20. Forecasting volatility and spillovers in crude oil spot, forward and future markets

    C-L. Chang (Chia-Lin); M.J. McAleer (Michael); R. Tansuchat (Roengchai)

    2009-01-01

    textabstractCrude oil price volatility has been analyzed extensively for organized spot, forward and futures markets for well over a decade, and is crucial for forecasting volatility and Value-at-Risk (VaR). There are four major benchmarks in the international oil market, namely West Texas

  1. Market Efficiency of Oil Spot and Futures: A Stochastic Dominance Approach

    H.H. Lean (Hooi Hooi); M.J. McAleer (Michael); W.-K. Wong (Wing-Keung)

    2010-01-01

    textabstractThis paper examines the market efficiency of oil spot and futures prices by using a stochastic dominance (SD) approach. As there is no evidence of an SD relationship between oil spot and futures, we conclude that there is no arbitrage opportunity between these two markets, and that both

  2. Analyzing and Forecasting Volatility Spillovers and Asymmetries in Major Crude Oil Spot, Forward and Futures Markets

    C-L. Chang (Chia-Lin); M.J. McAleer (Michael); R. Tansuchat (Roengchai)

    2010-01-01

    textabstractCrude oil price volatility has been analyzed extensively for organized spot, forward and futures markets for well over a decade, and is crucial for forecasting volatility and Value-at-Risk (VaR). There are four major benchmarks in the international oil market, namely West Texas

  3. Saudi Aramco: Oil to a Thirsty Market - International Cooperation Brings New Oil Field on Quickly

    Al-Ajmi, Ali

    2007-07-01

    In response to high oil demand in 2004, Saudi Aramco committed to build facilities for the 500,000 BOPD Khursaniyah Oil Field in only 34 months from the start of preliminary engineering to startup. The project schedule was six months faster than any previous project, in the most resource competitive market the oil business has ever seen. The execution of this project required a new contract strategy, novel engineering and construction methods, and international cooperation from EPC firms and manufacturers. The project is also building a new one billion SCF per day gas plant receiving gas from five different sources with varying pressure and H2S content, along with huge water supply and injection facilities, oil gathering lines, and product distribution lines. To execute the project in this short time frame, a temporary construction city for 30,000 men has been constructed in the desert. This city has workers from all over 30 countries, speaking more than 15 languages, all focused on achieving one goal - on time completion of the most complex project ever done in Saudi Arabia. The paper will focus on the unique challenges of managing a city of this size that lasts for only 24 months. (auth)

  4. Oil Price and Equity Markets: Modeling Co-Movement and Conditional Value at Risk

    Solvang, Jørn; Aarø, Thomas

    2017-01-01

    Master's thesis in Finance This paper studies the co-movement between oil prices and stock markets during the period 2006 – 2017 utilizing quantile regression. The studied stock indices are AEX, BOVESPA, CAC40, DAX30, EUROSTOXX50, FTSE100, SMI, S&P500 and TSX60, and the United States Oil Fund ETF represents the oil price. We investigate the co-movement and find a positive and significant co-movement between oil returns and stock market returns across quantiles for the stock market return d...

  5. Impact of changing conditions in the oil market on energy policies in the ESCWA region

    Anon.

    1992-01-01

    The present study has been prepared in the implementation of the ESCWA work programme and priorities for 1988/1989. It is aimed at examining energy issues of major concern to the region particularly the changes in the oil market, fluctuations of oil prices and their impact on energy plans and policies. The study is also intended to serve as a background document to the Meeting organized to discuss salient energy issues arising from recent developments in the oil market. It has therefore been designed to deal with downstream and upstream activities, adjustments to contractual terms, and market and national energy policies following the violent fluctuations of oil prices. Some futuristic views on the oil market are also presented and the study includes an examination of national and regional entities involved in energy issues and development of oil resources in the ESCWA region. (Author)

  6. Olive and olive pomace oil packing and marketing

    Berzosa, Juan

    2006-03-01

    Full Text Available The paper describes the industrial installations and equipments used by the olive oil sector for olive oil packing, the different types of containers used (plastic, glass, tin, and carton, and the diverse technologies applied for filling, stoppering, labelling, and packing as well as the trend and new technologies developed according to the material of the containers and the markets’ demands.Some logistic aspects such as palletization, storage, and shipment of final products are also discussed. The use of modern tools and codification systems like EAN 128 permits to follow the product distribution and assure the traceability of packed oils.The last part of the article includes the world and EU production and consumption of olive oil, paying special attention to the peculiarities of the main EU producers (Spain, Italy, Greece, and Portugal. Finally, the olive oil consumption in third countries is analysed and the consumption and its trend in merging markets like USA, Australia, and Japan commented.En este artículo se describen los equipos e instalaciones industriales que utiliza el sector del aceite de oliva para el envasado de los aceites de oliva, los tipos de envases más empleados (plástico, vidrio, metálicos y cartón y las diferentes tecnologías de llenado, taponado, etiquetado y embalado, así como las tendencias y nuevas tecnologías en función del material de los envases y la demanda de los mercados.Se contemplan también aspectos logísticos como el paletizado, el almacenamiento y la expedición del producto terminado. El uso de modernas herramientas y sistemas de codificación como el EAN 128 permite el seguimiento del producto y la trazabilidad de los aceites envasados a lo largo de la cadena de distribución.En la última parte del artículo, se indican cifras de producción y consumo de aceite de oliva en el mundo y en la Unión Europea. Se comentan especialmente las peculiaridades de los principales países productores de la

  7. Vietnam: opportunities in a developing oil and gas market

    Knott, T.

    1993-11-01

    The aim of this report is to act as an introduction to Vietnam and its oil industry opportunities for manufacturing, contracting, service and supplies companies which are seeking entry into other markets. The chapters of the report present an overview of the country, its recent history and formative events; in addition, the country's economy, industries and rebuilding process are reviewed. Detailed attention is given to trade, investment and finance, as these factors directly influence all business ventures in Vietnam, and are essential considerations in the assessment of the overall business environment. The appendices contain an extensive list of organisational contacts in Vietnam, the U.K. and elsewhere, and other useful information to support these activities. (author)

  8. Produced water: Market and global trends - oil production - water production - choice of technology

    Robertson, Steve

    2006-01-01

    The presentation discusses various aspects of the world oil production, the energy demand, the future oil supply, the oil prices and the production growth. Some problems with produced water are also discussed as well as aspects of the market for produced water technology (tk)

  9. Testing market efficiency of crude palm oil futures to European participants

    Liu, Xing

    2009-01-01

    Palm oil is the most consumed and traded vegetable oils in the EU and the world. Increasing non-food uses for vegetable oils in especially feedstock of biofuels in recent years have caused the price volatility to rise in both EU and global market. The most efficient pricing of crude palm oil (CPO) is to found on Bursa Malaysia (BMD), and it provides by far the world’s most liquid palm oil contract. The goal of this study is to investigate CPO futures market efficiency of BMD for the European ...

  10. NEB view of development potential and markets for heavy crude oil. [Canada

    Scotland, W A; Gutek, A M.H.

    1977-01-01

    The phased reduction in total crude oil and equivalent exports, from 911 Mpbd in 1974 to 465 Mbpd in 1976, has no doubt had a disruptive effect on the rate of development of heavy crude oil reserves. The effect could have become more series as total exports continued to drop. However, the separate licensing of heavy crude oil for export will allow heavy crude oil to enter available markets until the early 1980s. The construction of one or several upgrading facilities by the early 1980s, combined with growing domestic requirements for heavy crude oil feedstock, could make the disposition of heavy oil largely independent of the purchasing patterns of export markets. The prospect of increased market stability combined with increasing cash flows should provide an appropriate environment to optimize the role that heavy oil resources can play in Canada's future energy balance. (12 refs.)

  11. Reducing US Oil Dependence Using Simulation

    Ayoub, Fadi; Arnaout, Georges M.

    2011-01-01

    People across the world are addicted to oil; as a result, the instability of oil prices and the shortage of oil reserves have influenced human behaviors and global businesses. Today, the United States makes up only 5% of the global population but consumes 25% of the. world total energy. Most of this energy is generated from fossil fuels in the form of electricity. The contribution of this paper is to examine the possibilities of replacing fossil fuel with renewable energies to generate electricity as well as to examine other methods to reduce oil and gas consumption. We propose a system dynamics model in an attempt to predict the future US dependence on fossil fuels by using renewable energy resources such as, nuclear, wind, solar, and hydro powers. Based on the findings of our model, the study expects to provide insights towards promising solutions of the oil dependency problem.

  12. Charting the new world order: proceedings of the 15. CERI international oil and gas markets conference

    1996-10-01

    The 15th International Oil and Gas Markets Conference, organized by the Canadian Energy Research Institute (CERI) and held in Calgary, AB, provided a wide variety of opportunities for discussion of the global oil and gas market outlook, international oil and gas market strategies and corporate planning in the new world order, competition for investments, the re-emergence of the geopolitics of energy, energy in the Americas, international gas market strategies, and the financing of Canadian international operations. More than 100 delegates from around the world attended the conference to hear some 20 presentations. refs., tabs., figs

  13. The Dilemma of the Oil Market in the Current Geopolitical Context

    Cristina Teodora Balaceanu

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available In an increasingly globalized world, where the effects of technology have an overwhelming impact on people's lives, meaning an increase in appetite for consumption of luxury goods, of lifestyle, it seems that conventional resources are becoming fewer and their use in industrial processes lead to environmental harm, at least from pollution. Essentially, oil prices influence governments, companies, and markets of raw materials markets of finite economic goods, markets of conventional and unconventional energy and an assumed oil crisis would lead to stronger inflections on the market, with repercussions on the overall level of prices, the oil price being generally regarded as decisive for the other prices in the economy.

  14. Modelling and testing volatility spillovers in oil and financial markets for USA, UK and China

    Chang, Chia-Lin; McAleer, Michael; Tian, Jiarong

    2016-01-01

    textabstractThe primary purpose of the paper is to analyze the conditional correlations, conditional covariances, and co-volatility spillovers between international crude oil and associated financial markets. The paper investigates co-volatility spillovers (namely, the delayed effect of a returns shock in one physical or financial asset on the subsequent volatility or co-volatility in another physical or financial asset) between the oil and financial markets. The oil industry has four major r...

  15. World oil market fundamentals - Part One: The near term outlook

    Dwarkin, J.; Morton, K.; Datta, R.

    1998-03-01

    Potential implications of a number of uncertainties currently affecting the world oil market are assessed. The influence of the interplay of geopolitical events on demand and supply, inventories, prices and price trends are reviewed. Reference prices which industry and governments can use for investment and policy evaluations are provided. In this volume, the emphasis is on near term developments, with a review of the uncertainties surrounding these projections. Three different scenarios are postulated for the near term, each one taking into account different levels of Iraqi exports during the period which would effect available inventories, and hence price. Depending on which of the three scenarios actually comes to pass, unless refiners are prepared to build up inventories well beyond seasonal norms, or producers shut in, the prevailing view is that oil prices will be under severe pressure during most of 1998 and 1999. Over the longer term, however, the analysis suggests that an average real value of US$18.00 - $18.50 per barrel remains a reasonable expectation as a sustainable price. 34 refs., tabs., figs

  16. Multiple Time Series Ising Model for Financial Market Simulations

    Takaishi, Tetsuya

    2015-01-01

    In this paper we propose an Ising model which simulates multiple financial time series. Our model introduces the interaction which couples to spins of other systems. Simulations from our model show that time series exhibit the volatility clustering that is often observed in the real financial markets. Furthermore we also find non-zero cross correlations between the volatilities from our model. Thus our model can simulate stock markets where volatilities of stocks are mutually correlated

  17. Hubbert's Oil Peak Revisited by a Simulation Model

    Giraud, P.N.; Sutter, A.; Denis, T.; Leonard, C.

    2010-01-01

    As conventional oil reserves are declining, the debate on the oil production peak has become a burning issue. An increasing number of papers refer to Hubbert's peak oil theory to forecast the date of the production peak, both at regional and world levels. However, in our views, this theory lacks micro-economic foundations. Notably, it does not assume that exploration and production decisions in the oil industry depend on market prices. In an attempt to overcome these shortcomings, we have built an adaptative model, accounting for the behavior of one agent, standing for the competitive exploration-production industry, subjected to incomplete but improving information on the remaining reserves. Our work yields challenging results on the reasons for an Hubbert type peak oil, lying mainly 'above the ground', both at regional and world levels, and on the shape of the production and marginal cost trajectories. (authors)

  18. Oil price volatility: An Econometric Analysis of the WTI Market

    Hache, Emmanuel; Lantz, Frederic

    2011-04-01

    The aim of this paper is to study the oil price volatility in West Texas Intermediate (WTI) market in the US. By using statistical and econometric tools, we first attempt to identify the long-term relationship between WTI spot prices and the prices of futures contracts on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX). Subsequently we model the short-term dynamic between these two prices and this analysis points up several breaks. On this basis, a short term Markov Switching Vectorial Error Correction model (MS-VECM) with two distinct states (standard state and crisis state) has been estimated. Finally we introduce the volumes of transactions observed on the NYMEX for the WTI contracts and we estimate the influence of the non-commercial players. We conclude that the hypothesis of an influence of noncommercial players on the probability for being in the crisis state cannot be rejected. In addition, we show that the rise in liquidity of the first financial contracts, as measured by the volume of open interest, is a key element to understand the dynamics in market prices. (authors)

  19. Computer simulation of the Shetland oil spill

    Elliott, A.; Proctor, R.

    1994-01-01

    Model predictions of the movement of oil released during the Shetland oil spill in January 1993 commenced immediately following the grounding of the Braer. The initial forecast, made with a 5 nautical mile grid model, predicted oil along the west coast of the island but were too coarse to resolve the coastal bathymetry and circulation. This forced the development of a fine grid (924m) hydrodynamic model of the region which was interfaced to surface wind forecasts and meshed to a shelf-wide storm surge model. (author)

  20. Eleventh CERI [Canadian Energy Research Inst.] international oil and gas markets conference

    1992-01-01

    At a conference on international oil and gas markets, papers were presented on world oil and gas markets; energy policies; regulatory policies; supply and demand scenarios; environmental issues; the markets and industries in individual countries such as the former Soviet Union, USA, Canada, and the United Kingdom; business strategies; geopolitics of energy; and coalbed methane supplies. Separate abstracts have been prepared for 22 papers from this conference

  1. THE ORGANIZATIONAL-ECONOMIC MECHANISM OF RESTRUCTURING OF THE MARKET OF MINERAL OIL IN REGION

    V.I. Efimenkov

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available Restructuring, in opinion of the experts, one of the basic ways of steady development of managing subjects in modern conditions. In clause strategy of organizational-economic restructuring of the regional market of mineral oil is considered. Concrete actions of complex restructuring of the market of mineral oil in region and the mechanism of management are resulted by reorganization of the given market.

  2. Noteworthy: oil markets: Saudis abandon WTI price as benchmark

    Jackson Thies

    2010-01-01

    Saudi Arabia's state-owned oil company no longer uses West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil as its pricing benchmark. Saudi Aramco, the third largest U.S. oil supplier, switched to the Argus Sour Crude Index (ASCI) in January.

  3. Kyoto, the oil sands and the GHG emissions market

    Vickers, P.

    2004-01-01

    This paper reviews uncertainties in the oil sands industry in relation to climate change, greenhouse gas emissions and the Kyoto Protocol. Other issues contributing to uncertainties in the industry were also discussed, including water and natural gas issues, refinery capacity and markets, price and exchange rates as well as capital availability and project cost overruns. The potential economic impact of the Kyoto Protocol on oil sands was outlined with prices per barrel. Government regulations were examined in the context of the evolving expectations of the Canadian public. U.S. actions on climate change were examined at the federal and state level. Emissions trading systems were reviewed with reference to a post 2012 regime. The 2005 budget was discussed, along with the Canadian legislative agenda and domestic offsets program, as well as the regulatory agenda in June of 2005. Post 2012 issues were examined, including discussions on the next commitment period, with reference to the fact that there was no support for new commitments among developing countries but that domestic pressures was building in the U.S. for air and climate regulations. Pressures from shareholders and the scientific community were discussed. Emissions trading in the European Union was reviewed. Stabilization goals will mean significant cuts to emissions in order to accommodate growth. Scenario planning and climate change uncertainties were also reviewed. The benefits of scenario planning in complex situations were outlined and were seen to encourage the development of strategic options. Issues concerning environmental stewardship and possible responses by the Unites States were discussed. Three scenarios were outlined: that climate change is not man-made and all the problems will go away; that technology will evolve to accommodate changes; and that policy will be insensitive to the economy, technology will lag and the energy sector will be faced with much higher costs. Various risk management

  4. Learner Satisfaction in Marketing Simulation Games: Antecedents and Influencers

    Caruana, Albert; La Rocca, Antonella; Snehota, Ivan

    2016-01-01

    Simulation games have become widespread in business courses, yet the understanding of their learning effects remains limited. The effectiveness of using simulation in marketing classes is not uniform, and not all students welcome it to the same extent. Drawing on a survey among 173 students engaged in a simulation game as part of a course in a…

  5. An economic study of palm oil marketing in Akwa Ibom state ...

    However, the fluctuating trends in the production and marketing of palm oil in the State, calls for adequate economic investigation in order to enhance the potentials of the enterprise. The study covered the major markets in Akwa Ibom State, namely Uyo, Eket, Etinan, and Ikot Abasi main markets. In all, both the producers, ...

  6. The world oil market after the Iraq-Kuwait crisis: Economic and politicoeconomic considerations

    Wirl, F.

    1994-01-01

    The recent crisis in the Gulf (Iraq's temporary annexation of Kuwait) will presumably inflict enormous damage on future oil markets on both sides, consumers and producers. Consumers will be aware of the potential insecurity of the oil supply from the Arab-Persian Gulf, ironically, at a time when OPEC members (others than Iraq and Kuwait) stood up to their commitment. The reason for this lack of confidence is that political objectives may dominate conventional economic goals so that the future oil market becomes unpredictable and potentially insecure. As a consequence, consumers may conserve even in period of low oil prices so that billions and billions of (opportunity) dollars might be wasted. Vertical integration may be a way to mitigate this insecurity and to increase the credibility of a reliable supply. Presumably the easiest way to regain some of the consumers' confidence seems to be to again offer the international oil companies larger responsibility for the oil market

  7. Speculation and volatility spillover in the crude oil and agricultural commodity markets: A Bayesian analysis

    Du Xiaodong; Yu, Cindy L.; Hayes, Dermot J.

    2011-01-01

    This paper assesses factors that potentially influence the volatility of crude oil prices and the possible linkage between this volatility and agricultural commodity markets. Stochastic volatility models are applied to weekly crude oil, corn, and wheat futures prices from November 1998 to January 2009. Model parameters are estimated using Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods. Speculation, scalping, and petroleum inventories are found to be important in explaining the volatility of crude oil prices. Several properties of crude oil price dynamics are established, including mean-reversion, an asymmetry between returns and volatility, volatility clustering, and infrequent compound jumps. We find evidence of volatility spillover among crude oil, corn, and wheat markets after the fall of 2006. This can be largely explained by tightened interdependence between crude oil and these commodity markets induced by ethanol production.

  8. A new approach to measure speculation in the oil futures market and some policy implications

    Chan, Leo H.; Nguyen, Chi M.; Chan, Kam C.

    2015-01-01

    We propose using a new relative measure, the speculative ratio, defined as trading volume divided by open interest, to gauge speculative activity in the oil futures market. We apply the speculative ratio to examine the relation between basis and speculative activity in the oil futures market before and after the financialization of the oil market in 2003. Our finding suggests that the oil futures market is dominated by uninformed speculators in the post-financialization period. Our finding carries several practical policy implications, as follows: (1) both the commodity exchange and the regulator should design regulations and trading policies that improve basis risk; (2) on the commodity exchange side, new policies on margin requirements and position limits for speculators should be implemented; (3) margin requirements should be based on the level of basis risk; (4) regulators should speed up implementation of the position limit rule in the Dodd–Frank Act; and (5) stronger and more meaningful enforcement actions by regulators are required to punish and deter market manipulators. - Highlights: • Use a new speculative ratio to gauge speculative activities in oil futures market. • Examine the relation between basis and speculative activities. • The new speculative ratio also works well in the post-2008 oil bubble period. • Oil futures market is dominated by uninformed speculators in post-financialization in 2003.

  9. Crude oil price shocks and stock returns. Evidence from Turkish stock market under global liquidity conditions

    Berk, Istemi [Koeln Univ. (Germany). Energiewirtschaftliches Inst.; Aydogan, Berna [Izmir Univ. of Economics (Turkey). Dept. of International Trade and Finance

    2012-09-15

    The purpose of this study is to investigate the impacts of crude oil price variations on the Turkish stock market returns. We have employed vector autoregression (V AR) model using daily observations of Brent crude oil prices and Istanbul Stock Exchange National Index (ISE- 1 00) returns for the period between January 2, 1990 and November 1, 2011. We have also tested the relationship between oil prices and stock market returns under global liquidity conditions by incorporating a liquidity proxy variable, Chicago Board of Exchange's (CBOE) S and P 500 market volatility index (VIX), into the model. Variance decomposition test results suggest little empirical evidence that crude oil price shocks have been rationally evaluated in the Turkish stock market. Rather, it was global liquidity conditions that were found to account for the greatest amount of variation in stock market returns.

  10. Turmoil on the International Oil Markets. Getting Used to Production Capacity Constraints

    Ten Kate, W.; Van Geuns, L.

    2009-01-01

    In 2008 the world experienced a prelude to the new realities of the international oil market. These new realities include a tight balance between supply and demand, the rapidly increased cost of the marginal barrel and the extreme price volatility. This price volatility has driven prices up $50 a barrel in the space of 5 months, only to drop $50 in 2 months after the July 14 peak of $147 a barrel when consumers began to seriously drop out of the market and inventories were drawn down. After the extreme downward correction, the crisis on the international capital markets led to dim expectations about economic growth for the rest of the year and 2009, and this also played a role. However, prices are expected to rebound again, reflecting the fundamental upward shift of oil prices from an average of about $70-80 a barrel to about $110-120 a barrel. This fundamental upward shift is due to a combination of so-called 'underground' and 'above ground' conditions. The 'underground' problems include the size, depth and geological complexities of new oil fields that are driving up the cost per barrel. These complex oil fields need to be taken into production, since 'above ground' problems limit International Oil Companies' (IOCs) ability to access the lower-cost oil in producing countries. The 'above ground' problems slow the pace of development of medium-cost oil in the largest producing countries in the Middle East and Russia. Despite the expectation of a continued demand for oil, oil exporting countries are concerned about the security of demand, and adapt their development plans accordingly. Moreover, with the increased prices of the last few years and the resulting increase in oil revenues, the management of the monetarised oil wealth has become a concern as well. The value of the dollar has been slipping and oil exporting countries tried to match this depreciation by increasing oil prices. China's rise as an important manufacturer in the world, with the accompanying

  11. The influence of global benchmark oil prices on the regional oil spot market in multi-period evolution

    Jiang, Meihui; An, Haizhong; Jia, Xiaoliang; Sun, Xiaoqi

    2017-01-01

    Crude benchmark oil prices play a crucial role in energy policy and investment management. Previous research confined itself to studying the static, uncertain, short- or long-term relationship between global benchmark oil prices, ignoring the time-varying, quantitative, dynamic nature of the relationship during various stages of oil price volatility. This paper proposes a novel approach combining grey relation analysis, optimization wavelet analysis, and Bayesian network modeling to explore the multi-period evolution of the dynamic relationship between global benchmark oil prices and regional oil spot price. We analyze the evolution of the most significant decision-making risk periods, as well as the combined strategy-making reference oil prices and the corresponding periods during various stages of volatility. Furthermore, we determine that the network evolution of the quantitative lead/lag relationship between different influences of global benchmark oil prices shows a multi-period evolution phenomenon. For policy makers and market investors, our combined model can provide decision-making periods with the lowest expected risk and decision-making target reference oil prices and corresponding weights for strategy adjustment and market arbitrage. This study provides further information regarding period weights of target reference oil prices, facilitating efforts to perform multi-agent energy policy and intertemporal market arbitrage. - Highlights: • Multi-period evolution of the influence of different oil prices is discovered. • We combined grey relation analysis, optimization wavelet and Bayesian network. • The intensity of volatility, synchronization, and lead/lag effects are analyzed. • The target reference oil prices and corresponding period weights are determined.

  12. Direct numerical simulation of water droplet coalescence in the oil

    Mohammadi, Mehdi; Shahhosseini, Shahrokh; Bayat, Mahmoud

    2012-01-01

    Highlights: ► VOF computational technique has been used to simulate coalescence of two water droplets in oil. ► The model was validated with the experimental data for binary droplet coalescence. ► Based on the CFD simulation results a correlation has been proposed to predict the coalescence time. - Abstract: Coalescence of two water droplets in the oil was simulated using Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) techniques. The finite volume numerical method was applied to solve the Navier–Stokes equations in conjunction with the Volume of Fluid (VOF) approach for interface tracking. The effects of some parameters consisting of the collision velocity, off-center collision parameter, oil viscosity and water–oil interfacial tension on the coalescence time were investigated. The simulation results were validated against the experimental data available in the literature. The results revealed that quicker coalescence could be achieved if the head-on collisions occur or the droplets approach each other with a high velocity. In addition, low oil viscosities or large water–oil interfacial tensions cause less coalescence time. Moreover, a correlation was developed to predict coalescence efficiency as a function of the mentioned parameters.

  13. Agricultural and oil commodities: price transmission and market integration between US and Italy

    Franco Rosa

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Purpose of this article it to get some evidences of market interaction between United States and Italy using the time series analysis of spot prices spanning from January 1999 to May 2012 for crude oil and three ag-commodities: wheat, corn and soybean. These crops have been selected for their relevance in ag-commodity exchanges between US and Italy markets. The integration between US and Italy agricultural markets is hypothesized for the consistent volume of crop traded between these two countries while the price transmission is related to the leading price signals of the CBT (Chicago Board of Trade. The integration between oil and ag-commodity markets is suggested both by the large use of energy intensive inputs, (fertilizer, seed, machinery in production of these ag-commodities, and their use in biofuel production. The results suggest: a for US market the evidence of market integration between crude oil and US ag-commodities; b for Italy the integration with US ag-commodity markets and less evidence of integration with the oil market. These results are valuable information both for the agents and policy makers contributing to improve the information accuracy to predict the price movements used by marketing operators for their strategies and policy makers to set up policies to re-establish conditions of market efficiency and allocate these ag-commodities in alternative market channels.

  14. Simulation of trading strategies in the electricity market

    Charkiewicz, Kamil; Nowak, Robert

    2011-10-01

    The main objective of the energy market existence is reduction of the total cost of production, transport and distribution of energy, and so the prices paid by terminal consumers. Energy market contains few markets that are varying on operational rules, the important segments: the Futures Contract Market and Next Day Market are analyzed in presented approach. The computer system was developed to simulate the Polish Energy Market. This system use the multi-agent approach, where each agent is the separate shared library with defined interface. The software was used to compare strategies for players in energy market, where the strategies uses auto-regression, k-nearest neighbours, neural network and mixed algorithm, to predict the next price.

  15. On Monte Carlo Simulation and Analysis of Electricity Markets

    Amelin, Mikael

    2004-07-01

    This dissertation is about how Monte Carlo simulation can be used to analyse electricity markets. There are a wide range of applications for simulation; for example, players in the electricity market can use simulation to decide whether or not an investment can be expected to be profitable, and authorities can by means of simulation find out which consequences a certain market design can be expected to have on electricity prices, environmental impact, etc. In the first part of the dissertation, the focus is which electricity market models are suitable for Monte Carlo simulation. The starting point is a definition of an ideal electricity market. Such an electricity market is partly practical from a mathematical point of view (it is simple to formulate and does not require too complex calculations) and partly it is a representation of the best possible resource utilisation. The definition of the ideal electricity market is followed by analysis how the reality differs from the ideal model, what consequences the differences have on the rules of the electricity market and the strategies of the players, as well as how non-ideal properties can be included in a mathematical model. Particularly, questions about environmental impact, forecast uncertainty and grid costs are studied. The second part of the dissertation treats the Monte Carlo technique itself. To reduce the number of samples necessary to obtain accurate results, variance reduction techniques can be used. Here, six different variance reduction techniques are studied and possible applications are pointed out. The conclusions of these studies are turned into a method for efficient simulation of basic electricity markets. The method is applied to some test systems and the results show that the chosen variance reduction techniques can produce equal or better results using 99% fewer samples compared to when the same system is simulated without any variance reduction technique. More complex electricity market models

  16. Underdeveloped spot markets and futures trading: The Soya Oil exchange in India

    Bharat Ramaswami; Jatinder Bir Singh

    2006-01-01

    Abstract The limited presence of futures exchanges in developing countries where commodity markets fall short of the ideal underscore the importance of understanding the relation between spot and futures markets. The paper examines the exceptional success of the soya oil contract at the National Board of Trade (NBOT) in India. The paper asks whether the NBOT contract exhibits the fundamental features of mature futures markets in terms of its use by hedgers. If the market offers arbitrage oppo...

  17. Battle for market share: World oil market projections, 1995-2010

    Considine, J.I.; Reinsch, A.E.

    1995-09-01

    A world-wide market assessment and scenario analyses were described. They were said to suggest a more bearish outlook for crude oil prices relative to last years projections. The price of WTI was projected to weaken over the 1996-1998 period due to rising non-OPEC production, gradual reintegration of Iraqi exports, a lack of unified accommodation by the rest of OPEC for incremental Iraqi volumes, and demand growth insufficient to absorb the additional production at current prices. Crude prices could be expected to lie in the $15.50-$17.50 (US) per barrel range from 1996 to 1998, and in the $14.50-$20.50 per barrel range during the first decade of the 21. century. Long-term price risk was expected to be weighted to the down side. The reasoning behind these predictions was explained in detail. 24 figs., 83 tabs., 70 refs

  18. Helicopter training simulators: Key market factors

    Mcintosh, John

    1992-01-01

    Simulators will gain an increasingly important role in training helicopter pilots only if the simulators are of sufficient fidelity to provide positive transfer of skills to the aircraft. This must be done within an economic model of return on investment. Although rotor pilot demand is still only a small percentage of overall pilot requirements, it will grow in significance. This presentation described the salient factors influencing the use of helicopter training simulators.

  19. Market structure, excess capacity and price movement: implications for the world oil market in the 1990s

    Iwayemi, A.

    1992-01-01

    World Oil Market developments, since the second half of the 1980s, have demonstrated again the conventional wisdom in economics that competitive production and pricing strategies have among producers, when the industry is characterized by significant excess capacity, in exerting strong downward pressure on the price. The magnitude and speed of the price falls depends not only on the size and utilization of the available excess capacity, but also on the perception of the markets as regards the degree of the imbalance between demand and supply. The impact of output competition on oil revenues in the short run depends on the magnitude of the price elasticity of demand. The most vivid illustration of this phenomenon is captured by the experience of 1986, when competition for market share among oil producers, despite the existence of about 20 per cent excess capacity, culminated in a sharp drop in price, with only a marginal improvement in demand. (author)

  20. Crossed and Locked Quotes in a Multi-Market Simulation.

    Todd, Andrew; Beling, Peter; Scherer, William

    2016-01-01

    Financial markets are often fragmented, introducing the possibility that quotes in identical securities may become crossed or locked. There are a number of theoretical explanations for the existence of crossed and locked quotes, including competition, simultaneous actions, inattentiveness, fee structure and market access. In this paper, we perform a simulation experiment designed to examine the effect of simple order routing procedures on the properties of a fragmented market consisting of a single security trading in two independent limit order books. The quotes in the two markets are connected solely by the routing decision of the market participants. We report on the health of the consolidated market as measured by the duration of crossed and locked states, as well as the spread and the volatility of transaction prices in the consolidated market. We aim to quantify exactly how the prevalence of order routing among a population of market participants affects properties of the consolidated market. Our model contributes to the zero-intelligence literature by treating order routing as an experimental variable. Additionally, we introduce a parsimonious heuristic for limit order routing, allowing us to study the effects of both market order routing and limit order routing. Our model refines intuition for the sometimes subtle relationships between the prevalence of order routing and various market measures. Our model also provides a benchmark for more complex agent-based models.

  1. Monte Carlo Simulations of Neutron Oil well Logging Tools

    Azcurra, Mario

    2002-01-01

    Monte Carlo simulations of simple neutron oil well logging tools into typical geological formations are presented.The simulated tools consist of both 14 MeV pulsed and continuous Am-Be neutron sources with time gated and continuous gamma ray detectors respectively.The geological formation consists of pure limestone with 15% absolute porosity in a wide range of oil saturation.The particle transport was performed with the Monte Carlo N-Particle Transport Code System, MCNP-4B.Several gamma ray spectra were obtained at the detector position that allow to perform composition analysis of the formation.In particular, the ratio C/O was analyzed as an indicator of oil saturation.Further calculations are proposed to simulate actual detector responses in order to contribute to understand the relation between the detector response with the formation composition

  2. Monte Carlo simulations of neutron oil well logging tools

    Azcurra, Mario O.; Zamonsky, Oscar M.

    2003-01-01

    Monte Carlo simulations of simple neutron oil well logging tools into typical geological formations are presented. The simulated tools consist of both 14 MeV pulsed and continuous Am-Be neutron sources with time gated and continuous gamma ray detectors respectively. The geological formation consists of pure limestone with 15% absolute porosity in a wide range of oil saturation. The particle transport was performed with the Monte Carlo N-Particle Transport Code System, MCNP-4B. Several gamma ray spectra were obtained at the detector position that allow to perform composition analysis of the formation. In particular, the ratio C/O was analyzed as an indicator of oil saturation. Further calculations are proposed to simulate actual detector responses in order to contribute to understand the relation between the detector response with the formation composition. (author)

  3. Multi-agent simulation of competitive electricity markets: Autonomous systems cooperation for European market modeling

    Santos, Gabriel; Pinto, Tiago; Morais, Hugo; Sousa, Tiago M.; Pereira, Ivo F.; Fernandes, Ricardo; Praça, Isabel; Vale, Zita

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • Definition of an ontology allowing the communication between multi-agents systems. • Social welfare evaluation in different electricity markets. • Demonstration of the use of the proposed ontology between two multi-agents systems. • Strategic biding in electricity markets. • European electricity markets comparison. - Abstract: The electricity market restructuring, and its worldwide evolution into regional and even continental scales, along with the increasing necessity for an adequate integration of renewable energy sources, is resulting in a rising complexity in power systems operation. Several power system simulators have been developed in recent years with the purpose of helping operators, regulators, and involved players to understand and deal with this complex and constantly changing environment. The main contribution of this paper is given by the integration of several electricity market and power system models, respecting to the reality of different countries. This integration is done through the development of an upper ontology which integrates the essential concepts necessary to interpret all the available information. The continuous development of Multi-Agent System for Competitive Electricity Markets platform provides the means for the exemplification of the usefulness of this ontology. A case study using the proposed multi-agent platform is presented, considering a scenario based on real data that simulates the European Electricity Market environment, and comparing its performance using different market mechanisms. The main goal is to demonstrate the advantages that the integration of various market models and simulation platforms have for the study of the electricity markets’ evolution

  4. VOLATILITY SPILLOVER EFFECTS IN THE EXTRA VIRGIN OLIVE OIL MARKETS OF THE MEDITERRANEAN

    Dimitrios Panagiotou

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this study is to assess the existence and magnitude of volatility spillovers between the extra virgin olive oil markets of Italy, Spain and Greece. These three Mediterranean countries are responsible for 95% of olive oil production within the European Union and they account for more than 50% of olive oil exports worldwide. In order to measure the degree of volatility transmission between these countries we estimate a vector error correction model along with the BEKK parameterization of a Multivariate Generalized Conditional Autoregressive Heteroskedasticity (M-GARCH model. The empirical results reveal the presence of ARCH and GARCH effects suggesting this way the existence of volatility spillovers between the extra virgin olive oil markets of Italy, Greece and Spain. ARCH effects are the biggest in magnitude for the market between Spain and Italy. GARCH effects are the biggest in magnitude for the market between Greece and Italy.

  5. Unbiasedness and time varying risk premia in the crude oil futures market

    Moosa, I.A.; Al-Loughani, N.E.

    1994-01-01

    This paper presents some empirical evidence on market efficiency and unbiasedness in the crude oil futures market and some related issues. On the basis of monthly observations on spot and futures prices of the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil, several tests are carried out on the relevant hypotheses. The evidence suggests that futures prices are neither unbiased nor efficient forecasters of spot prices. Furthermore, a GARCH-M(1,1) model reveals the existence of a time varying risk premium. (author)

  6. Technical and Economic Efficiency of Palm Oil Marketing in the Niger Delta Region of Southern Nigeria

    Nkasiobi Silas Oguzor

    2013-01-01

    This study examined the structural performance and productive efficiency of palm oil marketing in some selected States in Southern Nigeria. Eighty districts were selected in the Niger Delta Area and data were collected from 1000 palm oil sellers randomly selected in these towns. The tools of analysis were marketing margin, Lorenz curve and Gini coefficient to measure the structural performance while the productive efficiency was measured with the use of the production function analysis using ...

  7. "Forecasting Volatility and Spillovers in Crude Oil Spot, Forward and Futures Markets"

    Chia-Lin Chang; Michael McAleer; Roengchai Tansuchat

    2009-01-01

    Crude oil price volatility has been analyzed extensively for organized spot, forward and futures markets for well over a decade, and is crucial for forecasting volatility and Value-at- Risk (VaR). There are four major benchmarks in the international oil market, namely West Texas Intermediate (USA), Brent (North Sea), Dubai/Oman (Middle East), and Tapis (Asia- Pacific), which are likely to be highly correlated. This paper analyses the volatility spillover effects across and within the four mar...

  8. The oil market in the 1980s -- a decade of decline

    Shojai, S.; Katz, B.S.

    1992-01-01

    Part 1 of this volume presents a profile of the economic dislocations and hardships that resulted from the breakup of OPEC and non-OPEC nation oil exporters. The economies and economic plans of these nations were buffeted by the oil price decline. Slowed foreign exchange receipts, declining terms of trade, and fluctuating exchange rates all mitigated against oil suppliers. Part 2 investigates a range of oil importer responses to the economic ramifications of rising (1970s) and declining (1980s) oil prices. While the oil-importing Western nations adjusted to and benefited from the declining oil prices and oil suppliers bore the cost, there were also disparate economic effects on the developing world. Part 3 investigates the oil price decline fallout. The experiences of the 1980s permit an extended analysis of market conditions resulting from changes in the price of oil. Part 4 attempts to come to grips with the impact of price changes and future developments in the international world oil market

  9. Using Intelligent System Approaches for Simulation of Electricity Markets

    Hamagami, Tomoki

    Significances and approaches of applying intelligent systems to artificial electricity market is discussed. In recent years, with the moving into restructuring of electric system in Japan, the deregulation for the electric market is progressing. The most major change of the market is a founding of JEPX (Japan Electric Power eXchange.) which is expected to help lower power bills through effective use of surplus electricity. The electricity market designates exchange of electric power between electric power suppliers (supplier agents) themselves. In the market, the goal of each supplier agents is to maximize its revenue for the entire trading period, and shows complex behavior, which can model by a multiagent platform. Using the multiagent simulations which have been studied as “artificial market" helps to predict the spot prices, to plan investments, and to discuss the rules of market. Moreover, intelligent system approaches provide for constructing more reasonable policies of each agents. This article, first, makes a brief summary of the electricity market in Japan and the studies of artificial markets. Then, a survey of tipical studies of artificial electricity market is listed. Through these topics, the future vision is presented for the studies.

  10. 78 FR 9575 - Marketing Order Regulating the Handling of Spearmint Oil Produced in the Far West; Change to...

    2013-02-11

    ... reserve oil in such manner as to accurately account for its receipt, storage, and disposition. In a rule... FR] Marketing Order Regulating the Handling of Spearmint Oil Produced in the Far West; Change to Administrative Rules Regarding the Transfer and Storage of Excess Spearmint Oil AGENCY: Agricultural Marketing...

  11. The role of reserves and production in the market capitalization of oil and gas companies

    Ewing, Bradley T.; Thompson, Mark A.

    2016-01-01

    We examine the role proved reserves and production play in the market capitalization of publicly traded oil and gas companies engaged in the exploration and production of hydrocarbons. The paper provides two important contributions to the literature. First, we extend the existing research by utilizing the method of Robust Least Squares to estimate a multivariate market capitalization model that controls for firm type. Second, we document the impacts that oil and gas reserves to production ratios have on market capitalization. This is a key finding in the context of discounted net cash flow models and the findings suggest there is an optimal tradeoff between current and future production, given current volumes of reserves, the latter of which is valued positively by the market. Moreover, this optimal tradeoff or the optimal profit-maximizing intertemporal production choice is unique to the type of hydrocarbon being considered. Additionally, our findings highlight the importance of capital structure in the heavily capital intensive oil and gas industry. The results from this research should benefit both oil and gas companies and investors. Specifically, the results provide new and robust information as to the empirical relationships between key determinants of oil and gas company market valuations. - Highlights: • We utilized Robust Least Squares to estimate a multivariate market capitalization model. • There is a differential impact that oil and gas reserves to production ratios have on market capitalization. • The optimal profit-maximizing intertemporal production choice is unique to the type of hydrocarbon being considered. • Results provide new information as to the relationships between key determinants of oil and gas company market valuations.

  12. The Stock Market Game: A Simulation of Stock Market Trading. Grades 5-8.

    Draze, Dianne

    This guide to a unit on a simulation game about the stock market contains an instructional text and two separate simulations. Through directed lessons and reproducible worksheets, the unit teaches students about business ownership, stock exchanges, benchmarks, commissions, why prices change, the logistics of buying and selling stocks, and how to…

  13. Market analysis of palm oil%棕榈油市场分析

    沙克

    2009-01-01

    分析了2008年度的棕榈油市场发展状况,对2009年度的棕榈油市场进行了展望和预测.同时,对全球棕榈油库存及库存使用比以及在全球贸易中所占比例进行了分析.%Palm oil market in 2008 was introduced, and the prospect on the market of palm oil in 2009 was also made in this paper. At the same time, global palm oil inventory situation and it global trade stares were also analyzed.

  14. Price Relationships in the Petroleum Market: An Analysis of Crude Oil and Refined Product Prices

    Asche, Frank; Gjoelberg, Ole; Voelker, Teresa

    2001-08-01

    In this paper the relationships between crude oil and refined product prices are investigated in a multivariate framework. This allows us to test several (partly competing) assumptions of earlier studies. In particular, we find that the crude oil price is weakly exogenous and that the spread is constant in some but not all relationships. Moreover, the multivariate analysis shows that the link between crude oil prices and several refined product prices implies market integration for these refined products. This is an example of supply driven market integration and producers will change the output mix in response to price changes. (author)

  15. Price relationships in the petroleum market. An analysis of crude oil and refined product prices

    Asche, Frank; Gjoelberg, Ole; Volker, Teresa

    2003-01-01

    In this paper the relationships between crude oil and refined product prices are investigated in a multivariate framework. This allows us to test several (partly competing) assumptions of earlier studies. In particular, we find that the crude oil price is weakly exogenous and that the spread is constant in some but not all relationships. Moreover, the multivariate analysis shows that the link between crude oil prices and several refined product prices implies market integration for these refined products. This is an example of supply driven market integration and producers will change the output mix in response to price changes

  16. Price relationships in the petroleum market: an analysis of crude oil and refined product prices

    Asche, F.; Gjoelberg, O.; Voelker, T.

    2003-01-01

    In this paper the relationships between crude oil and refined product prices are investigated in a multivariate framework. This allows us to test several (partly competing) assumptions of earlier studies. In particular, we find that the crude oil price is weakly exogenous and that the spread is constant in some but not all relationships. Moreover, the multivariate analysis shows that the link between crude oil prices and several refined product prices implies market integration for these refined products. This is an example of supply driven market integration and producers will change the output mix in response to price changes. (author)

  17. Dynamic Correlation between Stock Market Returns and Crude Oil Prices: Evidence from a Developing Economy

    Emenike O. Kalu

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Normal 0 false false false EN-US X-NONE X-NONE Modeling the correlation of assets returns volatilities across different markets or segments of a market has practical value for portfolio selection and diversification, market regulation, and risk management. This paper therefore evaluates the nature of time-varying correlation between volatilities of stock market and crude oil returns in Nigeria using Dynamic Conditional Correlation-Generalised Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (DCC-GARCH model. Results from DCC-GARCH (1,1 model show evidence of volatility clustering and persistence in Nigeria stock market and crude oil returns. The results also show that there is no dynamic conditional correlation in ARCH effects between stock market returns and crude oil prices in Nigeria. The results further show that there is strong evidence of time-varying volatility correlation between stock market and crude oil returns volatility. The findings will help shape policy-making in risk management and market regulation in Nigeria.

  18. Short-term outlook for Canadian crude oil to 2006 : an energy market assessment

    2005-09-01

    The National Energy Board monitors the supply of all energy commodities in Canada along with the demand for Canadian energy commodities in domestic and export markets. This report is intended to expand the effectiveness of the Board's monitoring activities by providing an assessment of the current state of the petroleum industry and the potential for growth. It provides an 18-month outlook on international and domestic crude oil prices; drilling and exploration activity; supply projections for Canadian crude oil and petroleum products; Canada's crude oil trade balance and markets for Canadian crude; existing export pipeline networks and project expansion plans; and, the Canadian petroleum products industry and the impact of higher prices. It also identifies the major issues and challenges associated with the development of Canada's crude oil. The 2 major oil producing areas in Canada are the Western Canada Sedimentary Basin (WCSB) including the oil sands, and offshore eastern Canada. While conventional production in the WCSB is declining, development focus has shifted to Alberta's oil sands as well as Hibernia, Terra Nova and White Rose, the 3 major oil fields offshore Newfoundland and Labrador. High energy prices have resulted in record profits for the Canadian oil and gas industry, and has stimulated billions of dollars in investment, with Alberta's oil sands being the main beneficiary. The 19 refineries in Canada have been operating at about 90 per cent capacity for the last several years due to strong demand for transportation fuels. 10 tabs., 37 figs., 2 appendices

  19. Oil Price Shocks and Stock Markets in BRICs

    Ono, Shigeki

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines the impact of oil prices on real stock returns for Brazil, China, India and Russia over 1999:1-2009:9 using VAR models. The results suggest that whereas real stock returns positively respond to some of the oil price indicators with statistical significance for China, India and Russia, those of Brazil do not show any significant responses. In addition, statistically significant asymmetric effects of oil price increases and decreases are observed in India. The analysis of variance decomposition shows that the contribution of oil price shocks to volatility in real stock returns is relatively large and statistically significant for China and Russia.

  20. World electricity generation, nuclear power, and oil markets

    1990-01-01

    Striking changes have characterized the world's production and use of energy over the past 15 years. Most prominent have been the wide price fluctuations, politicization of world oil prices and supply, along with profound changes in patterns of production and consumption. This report, based on a study by energy analysts at Science Concepts, Inc., in the United States, traces changes in world energy supply since 1973-74 - the time of the first oil ''price shocks''. In so doing, it identifies important lessons for the future. The study focused in particular on the role of the electric power sector because the growth in fuel use in it has been accomplished without oil. Instead, the growth has directly displaced oil. In the pre-1973 era, the world relied increasingly on oil for many energy applications, including the production of electricity. By 1973, more than on-fourth of the world's electricity was produced by burning oil. By 1987, however, despite a large increase in electric demand, the use of oil was reigned back to generating less than 10% of the world's electricity. Nuclear power played a major role in this turnaround. From 1973-87, analysts at Science Concepts found, nuclear power displaced the burning of 11.7 billion barrels of oil world-wide and avoided US $323 billion in oil purchases

  1. Simulating potential growth and yield of oil palm with PALMSIM

    Hoffmann, M.P.; Vera, A.C.; Wijk, van M.T.; Giller, K.E.; Oberthur, R.; Donough, C.; Whitbread, A.M.; Fisher, M.J.

    2014-01-01

    The growing demand for palm oil can be met by reducing the gap between potential yield and actual yield. Simulation models can quantify potential yield, and therefore indicate the scope for intensification. A relatively simple physiological approach was used to develop PALMSIM, which is a model that

  2. Experiences with linear solvers for oil reservoir simulation problems

    Joubert, W.; Janardhan, R. [Los Alamos National Lab., NM (United States); Biswas, D.; Carey, G.

    1996-12-31

    This talk will focus on practical experiences with iterative linear solver algorithms used in conjunction with Amoco Production Company`s Falcon oil reservoir simulation code. The goal of this study is to determine the best linear solver algorithms for these types of problems. The results of numerical experiments will be presented.

  3. Oil price assumptions in macroeconomic forecasts: should we follow future market expectations?

    Coimbra, C.; Esteves, P.S.

    2004-01-01

    In macroeconomic forecasting, in spite of its important role in price and activity developments, oil prices are usually taken as an exogenous variable, for which assumptions have to be made. This paper evaluates the forecasting performance of futures market prices against the other popular technical procedure, the carry-over assumption. The results suggest that there is almost no difference between opting for futures market prices or using the carry-over assumption for short-term forecasting horizons (up to 12 months), while, for longer-term horizons, they favour the use of futures market prices. However, as futures market prices reflect market expectations for world economic activity, futures oil prices should be adjusted whenever market expectations for world economic growth are different to the values underlying the macroeconomic scenarios, in order to fully ensure the internal consistency of those scenarios. (Author)

  4. Econometric simulation model of the US market for steam coal

    Labys, W C; Paik, S; Liebenthal, A M

    1979-01-01

    An econometric investigation of the historical structure of the U.S. market for steam coal was made to forecast demand, supply, inventory, and price behavior. The structure of the steam coal market is examined and a corresponding theoretical model developed. Consideration is given to alternative simulation models based on various combinations of hypotheses about demand and supply. Results from the models are presented and interpreted. 19 references.

  5. Canada's oil sands, opportunities and challenges to 2015 : an energy market assessment

    2004-05-01

    The National Energy Board monitors the supply of all energy commodities in Canada along with the demand for Canadian energy commodities in domestic and export markets. This report provides an assessment of the current state of the oil sands industry and the potential for growth. It also identifies the major issues and challenges associated with the development of Canada's oil sands, one of the world's largest hydrocarbon resources. Initial production of Canada's oil sands began in 1967. The resource has become more economic to develop in recent years due to higher energy prices and new technologies. The economic potential of Canada's oil sands has been recognized internationally. Canadian oil sands production in 2004 will surpass 160,000 cubic metres per day. By 2015, production is expected to more than double to meet market demands. The challenges facing the industry include higher natural gas prices, capital cost overruns and environmental impacts. The major factors that affect the rate of oil sands development include natural gas supply, energy demand, oil and gas pricing, markets and pipelines, environmental considerations, emerging technologies, geopolitical issues, and labour. This report includes key findings for the following four key components: economic potential and development of the resource base; markets and pipelines; environmental and socio-economic impacts; and, potential spin-off developments in the electricity and petrochemical industries. 26 tabs., 53 figs

  6. Impact of Oil Price Shocks and Exchange Rate Volatility on Stock Market Behavior in Nigeria

    Adedoyin I. Lawal

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The impact of exchange rate and oil prices fluctuation on the stock market has been a subject of hot debate among researchers. This study examined the impact of both the exchange rate volatility and oil price volatility on stock market volatility in Nigeria, so as to guide policy formulation based on the fact that the nation’s economy was foreign induced and mono-cultured with heavy dependence on oil. EGARCH estimation techniques were employed to examine if either the volatility in exchange rate, oil price volatility or both experts on stock market volatility in Nigeria. The result shows that share price volatility is induced by both the exchange rate volatility and oil price volatility. Thus, it is recommended that policymakers should pursue policies that tend to stabilize the exchange rate regime on the one hand, and guarantee the net oil exporting position for the economy, that market practitioners should formulate portfolio strategies in such a way that volatility in both exchange rates and oil price will be factored in time when investment decisions are being made.

  7. Entry, concentration and market efficiency: A simulation of the PJM energy market

    Harvill, Terry

    The rapid and substantial expansion of the PJM energy market during 2004 and 2005 provides a unique opportunity to test the theory of market concentration and its effect on market efficiency. With ten years of operational experience, the PJM energy market is uniquely suited to test the theories of market concentration and efficiency in a natural experiment. This research tests the hypothesis that, for a given number of generating units in the industry, system marginal price will be a decreasing function of the number of owners or generators controlling the units (i.e., the industry concentration ratio). Market simulations are utilized to assess price-cost markups in the PJM energy market during three distinct periods of expansion: (1) pre-Commonwealth Edison integration, (2) pre-American Electric Power (AEP), Dayton Power and Light (DPL), Duquesne Light (Duquesne), and Dominion Virginia Power (Dominion) integration, and (3) post-AFT, DPL. Duquesne, and Dominion Integration. The results of the market simulations for the May 1 to August 31 periods for 2003, 2004, and 2005, indicate that the performance of the market improved with the addition of new market participants in 2004 and 2005. The results of the simulation indicate that the load-weighted Lerner index decreased to -3.70 percent in 2005 from 0.92 percent in 2003. Clearly, the addition of Commonwealth Edison in 2004 significantly increased constraints within the PJM energy market and likely impacted the observed prices in PJM during 2004 due to the lack of a significant link to the other PJM market participants. This deficiency was address in 2005 with the addition of American Electric Power. The market simulations also highlight the prevalence of computed negative markups in the simulation results. Many of the off-peak periods in particular are characterized by negative markups where the expected marginal cost exceeds the observed price. Unit commitment constraints are believed to largely account for these

  8. Market efficiency of oil spot and futures: A mean-variance and stochastic dominance approach

    Lean, Hooi Hooi; McAleer, Michael; Wong, Wing-Keung

    2010-01-01

    This paper examines the market efficiency of oil spot and futures prices by using both mean-variance (MV) and stochastic dominance (SD) approaches. Based on the West Texas Intermediate crude oil data for the sample period 1989-2008, we find no evidence of any MV and SD relationships between oil spot and futures indices. This infers that there is no arbitrage opportunity between these two markets, spot and futures do not dominate one another, investors are indifferent to investing spot or futures, and the spot and futures oil markets are efficient and rational. The empirical findings are robust to each sub-period before and after the crises for different crises, and also to portfolio diversification.

  9. Elasticity and competitiveness of Indonesia’s palm oil export in India market

    Awan Setya Dewanta

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available This study examines the elasticity and competitiveness of Indonsia’s palm oil export in the India market, 1990 -2014. The methods used are Error Correction Model (ECM and Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA approach. The results shows that the price is inelastic in short-term but it is elastic in long-term. The income and exchange rate are elastic in the long-term. There is also a decline in competitiveness in the market India. These findings also demonstrate that palm oil is normal goods and can be easily substituted with the same products of other countries or other vegetable oils. It threatens the Indonesian palm oil competitiveness in the Indian market.

  10. Market efficiency of oil spot and futures: A mean-variance and stochastic dominance approach

    Lean, Hooi Hooi [Economics Program, School of Social Sciences, Universiti Sains Malaysia (Malaysia); McAleer, Michael [Econometric Institute, Erasmus School of Economics, Erasmus University Rotterdam, and, Tinbergen Institute (Netherlands); Wong, Wing-Keung, E-mail: awong@hkbu.edu.h [Department of Economics, Hong Kong Baptist University (Hong Kong)

    2010-09-15

    This paper examines the market efficiency of oil spot and futures prices by using both mean-variance (MV) and stochastic dominance (SD) approaches. Based on the West Texas Intermediate crude oil data for the sample period 1989-2008, we find no evidence of any MV and SD relationships between oil spot and futures indices. This infers that there is no arbitrage opportunity between these two markets, spot and futures do not dominate one another, investors are indifferent to investing spot or futures, and the spot and futures oil markets are efficient and rational. The empirical findings are robust to each sub-period before and after the crises for different crises, and also to portfolio diversification.

  11. Market efficiency of oil spot and futures. A mean-variance and stochastic dominance approach

    Lean, Hooi Hooi [Economics Program, School of Social Sciences, Universiti Sains Malaysia (Malaysia); McAleer, Michael [Econometric Institute, Erasmus School of Economics, Erasmus University Rotterdam (Netherlands); Wong, Wing-Keung [Department of Economics, Hong Kong Baptist University (China); Tinbergen Institute (Netherlands)

    2010-09-15

    This paper examines the market efficiency of oil spot and futures prices by using both mean-variance (MV) and stochastic dominance (SD) approaches. Based on the West Texas Intermediate crude oil data for the sample period 1989-2008, we find no evidence of any MV and SD relationships between oil spot and futures indices. This infers that there is no arbitrage opportunity between these two markets, spot and futures do not dominate one another, investors are indifferent to investing spot or futures, and the spot and futures oil markets are efficient and rational. The empirical findings are robust to each sub-period before and after the crises for different crises, and also to portfolio diversification. (author)

  12. Multivariate FIGARCH and long memory process: evidence of oil price markets

    Nadhem Selmi

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Oil price markets can benefit from a better considerate of how shocks can affect volatility through time. This study assesses the impact of structural changes and outliers on volatility persistence of two crude oil markets WTI and Brent oil price between January 1, 1996 and March 17, 2014. First, we identify the FIGARCH process proposed by Baillie et al. (1996 [Baillie, R.T., Bollerslev, T., & Mikkelsen, H.O., (1996, Fractionally integrated generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity. Journal of Econometrics, 74, 3-30.] and investigate some of its statistical proprieties and then incorporate this information into the volatility modelling. We also show that outliers can bias the estimation of the persistence of the volatility. Taking into account outliers on the volatility modelling process improve the understanding of volatility in crude oil markets.

  13. Modeling energy market dynamics using discrete event system simulation

    Gutierrez-Alcaraz, G.; Sheble, G.B.

    2009-01-01

    This paper proposes the use of Discrete Event System Simulation to study the interactions among fuel and electricity markets and consumers, and the decision-making processes of fuel companies (FUELCOs), generation companies (GENCOs), and consumers in a simple artificial energy market. In reality, since markets can reach a stable equilibrium or fail, it is important to observe how they behave in a dynamic framework. We consider a Nash-Cournot model in which marketers are depicted as Nash-Cournot players that determine supply to meet end-use consumption. Detailed engineering considerations such as transportation network flows are omitted, because the focus is upon the selection and use of appropriate market models to provide answers to policy questions. (author)

  14. Transporting US oil imports: The impact of oil spill legislation on the tanker market. Draft final report

    Rowland, P.J. [Rowland (P.) Associates (United States)

    1992-05-01

    The Oil Pollution Act of 1990 (``OPA``) and an even more problematic array of State pollution laws have raised the cost, and risk, of carrying oil into and out of the US. This report, prepared under contract to the US Department of energy`s Office of Domestic and International Policy, examines the impact of Federal and State oil spill legislation on the tanker market. It reviews the role of marine transportation in US oil supply, explores the OPA and State oil spill laws, studies reactions to OPA in the tanker and tank barge industries and in related industries such as insurance and ship finance, and finally, discusses the likely developments in the years ahead. US waterborne oil imports amounted to 6.5 million B/D in 1991, three-quarters of which was crude oil. Imports will rise by almost 3 million B/D by 2000 according to US Department of energy forecasts, with most of the crude oil growth after 1995. Tanker demand will grow even faster: most of the US imports and the increased traffic to other world consuming regions will be on long-haul trades. Both the number of US port calls by tankers and the volume of offshore lightering will grow. Every aspect of the tanker industry`s behavior is affected by OPA and a variety of State pollution laws.

  15. Agent-based simulation of electricity markets. A literature review

    Sensfuss, F.; Ragwitz, M. [Fraunhofer-Institut fuer Systemtechnik und Innovationsforschung (ISI), Karlsruhe (Germany); Genoese, M.; Moest, D. [Karlsruhe Univ. (T.H.) (Germany). Inst. fuer Industriebetriebslehre und Industrielle Produktion

    2007-07-01

    Liberalisation, climate policy and promotion of renewable energy are challenges to players of the electricity sector in many countries. Policy makers have to con-sider issues like market power, bounded rationality of players and the appear-ance of fluctuating energy sources in order to provide adequate legislation. Fur-thermore the interactions between markets and environmental policy instru-ments become an issue of increasing importance. A promising approach for the scientific analysis of these developments is the field of agent-based simulation. The goal of this article is to provide an overview of the current work applying this methodology to the analysis of electricity markets. (orig.)

  16. Simulating the market coefficient of relative risk aversion

    Samih Antoine Azar

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, expected utility, defined by a Taylor series expansion around expected wealth, is maximized. The coefficient of relative risk aversion (CRRA that is commensurate with a 100% investment in the risky asset is simulated. The following parameters are varied: the riskless return, the market standard deviation, the market stock premium, and the skewness and the kurtosis of the risky return. Both the high extremes and the low extremes are considered. With these figures, the upper bound of the market CRRA is 3.021 and the lower bound is 0.466. Log utility, which corresponds to a CRRA of 1, is not excluded.

  17. Golden age: marketers extract the most from oil and natural gas trade

    Lorenz, A.

    2000-04-01

    The complexity of the oil and natural gas markets, the complex factors which interact to produce the price of oil or natural gas on any given day, and the role of marketers in this high stakes game are discussed. While oil and natural gas prices are very good today compared to the low prices through much of the 1990s, marketers are now concerned about the ability of Canadian fields to produce enough to fill the expanded pipelines and meet the rising demand. As the oil and natural gas industry in Canada is moving from a pipeline-constrained environment to a resource-constrained environment, the question of declining reserves in the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin and the resulting surplus in pipeline capacity is one of the most serious issues facing industry in the immediate future. This is especially true of natural gas where the cost of transportation, which can be as high as 30 per cent, is one of major importance to gas marketers. Locking in prices or allowing prices to float can make the difference between huge losses or gains depending on the interplay of the various factor that influence price fluctuations. Examples of how decisions about oil and gas prices are made, and the various outcomes that may result from marketer decisions are described to illustrate the vagaries of the natural gas market.

  18. The efficiency of the crude oil markets: Evidence from variance ratio tests

    Charles, Amelie, E-mail: acharles@audencia.co [Audencia Nantes, School of Management, 8 route de la Joneliere, 44312 Nantes (France); Darne, Olivier, E-mail: olivier.darne@univ-nantes.f [LEMNA, University of Nantes, IEMN-IAE, Chemin de la Censive du Tertre, 44322 Nantes (France)

    2009-11-15

    This study examines the random walk hypothesis for the crude oil markets, using daily data over the period 1982-2008. The weak-form efficient market hypothesis for two crude oil markets (UK Brent and US West Texas Intermediate) is tested with non-parametric variance ratio tests developed by [Wright J.H., 2000. Alternative variance-ratio tests using ranks and signs. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 18, 1-9] and [Belaire-Franch J. and Contreras D., 2004. Ranks and signs-based multiple variance ratio tests. Working paper, Department of Economic Analysis, University of Valencia] as well as the wild-bootstrap variance ratio tests suggested by [Kim, J.H., 2006. Wild bootstrapping variance ratio tests. Economics Letters, 92, 38-43]. We find that the Brent crude oil market is weak-form efficiency while the WTI crude oil market seems to be inefficiency on the 1994-2008 sub-period, suggesting that the deregulation have not improved the efficiency on the WTI crude oil market in the sense of making returns less predictable.

  19. The efficiency of the crude oil markets. Evidence from variance ratio tests

    Charles, Amelie; Darne, Olivier

    2009-01-01

    This study examines the random walk hypothesis for the crude oil markets, using daily data over the period 1982-2008. The weak-form efficient market hypothesis for two crude oil markets (UK Brent and US West Texas Intermediate) is tested with non-parametric variance ratio tests developed by [Wright J.H., 2000. Alternative variance-ratio tests using ranks and signs. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 18, 1-9] and [Belaire-Franch J. and Contreras D., 2004. Ranks and signs-based multiple variance ratio tests. Working paper, Department of Economic Analysis, University of Valencia] as well as the wild-bootstrap variance ratio tests suggested by [Kim, J.H., 2006. Wild bootstrapping variance ratio tests. Economics Letters, 92, 38-43]. We find that the Brent crude oil market is weak-form efficiency while the WTI crude oil market seems to be inefficiency on the 1994-2008 sub-period, suggesting that the deregulation have not improved the efficiency on the WTI crude oil market in the sense of making returns less predictable. (author)

  20. The efficiency of the crude oil markets. Evidence from variance ratio tests

    Charles, Amelie [Audencia Nantes, School of Management, 8 route de la Joneliere, 44312 Nantes (France); Darne, Olivier [LEMNA, University of Nantes, IEMN-IAE, Chemin de la Censive du Tertre, 44322 Nantes (France)

    2009-11-15

    This study examines the random walk hypothesis for the crude oil markets, using daily data over the period 1982-2008. The weak-form efficient market hypothesis for two crude oil markets (UK Brent and US West Texas Intermediate) is tested with non-parametric variance ratio tests developed by [Wright J.H., 2000. Alternative variance-ratio tests using ranks and signs. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 18, 1-9] and [Belaire-Franch J. and Contreras D., 2004. Ranks and signs-based multiple variance ratio tests. Working paper, Department of Economic Analysis, University of Valencia] as well as the wild-bootstrap variance ratio tests suggested by [Kim, J.H., 2006. Wild bootstrapping variance ratio tests. Economics Letters, 92, 38-43]. We find that the Brent crude oil market is weak-form efficiency while the WTI crude oil market seems to be inefficiency on the 1994-2008 sub-period, suggesting that the deregulation have not improved the efficiency on the WTI crude oil market in the sense of making returns less predictable. (author)

  1. Macro economy, stock market and oil prices. Do meaningful relationships exist among their cyclical fluctuations?

    Filis, George

    2010-01-01

    This paper examines the relationship among consumer price index, industrial production, stock market and oil prices in Greece. Initially we use a unified statistical framework (cointegration and VECM) to study the data in levels. We then employ a multivariate VAR model to examine the relationship among the cyclical components of our series. The period of the study is from 1996:1 to 2008:6. Findings suggest that oil prices and the stock market exercise a positive effect on the Greek CPI, in the long run. Cyclical components analysis suggests that oil prices exercise significant negative influence to the stock market. In addition, oil prices are negatively influencing CPI, at a significant level. However, we find no effect of oil prices on industrial production and CPI. Finally, no relationship can be documented between the industrial production and stock market for the Greek market. The findings of this study are of particular interest and importance to policy makers, financial managers, financial analysts and investors dealing with the Greek economy and the Greek stock market. (author)

  2. Golden age: marketers extract the most from oil and natural gas trade

    Lorenz, A.

    2000-01-01

    The complexity of the oil and natural gas markets, the complex factors which interact to produce the price of oil or natural gas on any given day, and the role of marketers in this high stakes game are discussed. While oil and natural gas prices are very good today compared to the low prices through much of the 1990s, marketers are now concerned about the ability of Canadian fields to produce enough to fill the expanded pipelines and meet the rising demand. As the oil and natural gas industry in Canada is moving from a pipeline-constrained environment to a resource-constrained environment, the question of declining reserves in the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin and the resulting surplus in pipeline capacity is one of the most serious issues facing industry in the immediate future. This is especially true of natural gas where the cost of transportation, which can be as high as 30 per cent, is one of major importance to gas marketers. Locking in prices or allowing prices to float can make the difference between huge losses or gains depending on the interplay of the various factor that influence price fluctuations. Examples of how decisions about oil and gas prices are made, and the various outcomes that may result from marketer decisions are described to illustrate the vagaries of the natural gas market

  3. The impact of the Arab Spring on the hydrocarbon industry and on oil markets

    Perrin, Francis

    2011-01-01

    The author discusses direct and indirect, actual and potential, short term and medium term consequences on oil industries, sector and markets of tensions, disorders and conflicts which occurred in Arab countries during the so-called Arab Spring. He first addresses the impact on oil price in relationship with the situation of production is some of the concerned countries. If oil prices have then been increasing with a peak in April, they decreased thereafter because of perspectives of a world economic downturn. He evokes the possible consequences of the return of Libyan crude oils on international markets, and discusses the implications of a higher political risk in Northern African and Middle-Eastern countries. He finally questions the possible emergence of new oil and gas policies elaborated by authorities in these countries

  4. Comparison of historically simulated VaR: Evidence from oil prices

    Costello, Alexandra; Asem, Ebenezer; Gardner, Eldon

    2008-01-01

    Cabedo and Moya [Cabedo, J.D., Moya, I., 2003. Estimating oil price 'Value at Risk' using the historical simulation approach. Energy Economics 25, 239-253] find that ARMA with historical simulation delivers VaR forecasts that are superior to those from GARCH. We compare the ARMA with historical simulation to the semi-parametric GARCH model proposed by Barone-Adesi et al. [Barone-Adesi, G., Giannopoulos, K., Vosper, L., 1999. VaR without correlations for portfolios of derivative securities. Journal of Futures Markets 19 (5), 583-602]. The results suggest that the semi-parametric GARCH model generates VaR forecasts that are superior to the VaR forecasts from the ARMA with historical simulation. This is due to the fact that GARCH captures volatility clustering. Our findings suggest that Cabedo and Moya's conclusion is mainly driven by the normal distributional assumption imposed on the future risk structure in the GARCH model. (author)

  5. The new great game : international oil markets; Middle East domination or regionalisation

    Odell, P.R.

    1998-01-01

    The dynamics of international supply and demand for oil and its effect on world oil prices are discussed. The impact of stagnant prices over the past 15 years on the Middle East, Russia, China and OPEC members was described, together with an attempt to explain the reasons for: (1) Middle East domination or regionalisation, (2) the emergence of a regionalized oil industry, (3) the Middle East as the residual supplier, and (4) the future of Middle East oil and of traded markets. 3 tabs., 5 figs

  6. Two oil spills: interrelatedness of socioeconomic structure and impact on seafood marketing systems

    Rosenblum, I

    1978-01-01

    Little research has been done, to date, on the socioeconomic effects of oil spills. The socioeconomic investigations which were carried out in connection with the ''Saint Peter'' oil spill off the Colombian/Ecuadorian coast, and the ''Urquiola'' oil spill at La Coruna harbor in north-western Spain have provided an opportunity to document different effects on the seafood marketing systems in the two communities. The differences of the impact of the oil spills permitted an insight into the interrelatedness of socioeconomic factors both with respect to the effects produced and the degree of success of the corrective measures where such were implemented.

  7. Two oil spills: interrelation between the socioeconomic structure and impact on seafood marketing systems

    Rosenblum, I

    1979-01-01

    Little research has been done, to date, on the socioeconomic effects of oil spills. The socioeconomic investigations which were carried out in connection with the Saint Peter oil spill off the Colombian/Ecuadorian coast, and the Urquiola oil spill at La Coruna harbor in north-western Spain have provided an opportunity to document different effects on the seafood marketing systems in the two communities. The differences of the impact of the oil spills permitted an insight into the interrelation between socioeconomic factors both with respect to the effects produced and the degree of success of the corrective measures where such were implemented.

  8. 76 FR 61933 - Marketing Order Regulating the Handling of Spearmint Oil Produced in the Far West; Revision of...

    2011-10-06

    ..., 733,877 pounds of Scotch spearmint oil have already been sold or committed, which leaves just 186,505... of essential oils and the products of essential oils. In addition, the Committee estimates that 8 of...-1A IR] Marketing Order Regulating the Handling of Spearmint Oil Produced in the Far West; Revision of...

  9. North African oil and foreign investment in changing market conditions

    Fattouh, Bassam; Darbouche, Hakim

    2010-01-01

    Since the 1960s, the experiences of the North African oil producers of Libya, Algeria, Egypt and Sudan within the oil industry have followed separate paths, which have led them into different relations with foreign oil companies. While reflecting broader trends of 'resource nationalism', these relations have also been affected by a number of factors specific to these countries. In tracing the evolution of the oil investment frameworks of these countries, as well as their concomitant relations with IOCs, this paper probes the roles played by these factors and argues that the type and size of remaining reserves as well as the capability of NOCs are likely to determine the most future developments in the region's oil industry.

  10. The Asymmetric Effects of Oil Price Shocks on the Chinese Stock Market: Evidence from a Quantile Impulse Response Perspective

    Huiming Zhu

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available This paper uses a quantile impulse response approach to investigate the impact of oil price shocks on Chinese stock returns. This process allows us to uncover asymmetric effects of oil price shocks on stock market returns by taking into account the different quantiles of oil price shocks. Our results show that the responses of Chinese stock market returns to oil price shocks differ greatly, depending on whether the oil and stock market is in a bust or boom state and whether the shock is driven by demand or supply. The impacts of oil price shocks on Chinese stock returns present asymmetric features. In particular during a bust phase, oil supply and demand shocks significantly depress stock market returns, while during a boom period, the aggregate demand shock enhances stock market returns. These results suggest some important implications for investors and decision makers.

  11. Simulation of oil pollution in the Persian Gulf near Assaluyeh oil terminal

    Faghihifard, M.; Badri, M.A.

    2016-01-01

    Numerical simulation of oil slick movement with respect to tidal factors and wind effects was performed in order to counteract oil pollution in the Persian Gulf. First, a flow model was invoked with respect to water level fluctuations. The main tidal constituents were applied to the model using the initial conditions of water level variations in the Hormuz Strait near the Hangam Island. The movement of oil pollution was determined due to wind, tide and temperature effects and confirmed by applying a verified field results. Simulations were focused near an important terminal in the Persian Gulf, Assaluyeh Port. The results were led to preparing a risk-taking map in a parallel research for the Persian Gulf.

  12. Simulating market dynamics: interactions between consumer psychology and social networks.

    Janssen, Marco A; Jager, Wander

    2003-01-01

    Markets can show different types of dynamics, from quiet markets dominated by one or a few products, to markets with continual penetration of new and reintroduced products. In a previous article we explored the dynamics of markets from a psychological perspective using a multi-agent simulation model. The main results indicated that the behavioral rules dominating the artificial consumer's decision making determine the resulting market dynamics, such as fashions, lock-in, and unstable renewal. Results also show the importance of psychological variables like social networks, preferences, and the need for identity to explain the dynamics of markets. In this article we extend this work in two directions. First, we will focus on a more systematic investigation of the effects of different network structures. The previous article was based on Watts and Strogatz's approach, which describes the small-world and clustering characteristics in networks. More recent research demonstrated that many large networks display a scale-free power-law distribution for node connectivity. In terms of market dynamics this may imply that a small proportion of consumers may have an exceptional influence on the consumptive behavior of others (hubs, or early adapters). We show that market dynamics is a self-organized property depending on the interaction between the agents' decision-making process (heuristics), the product characteristics (degree of satisfaction of unit of consumption, visibility), and the structure of interactions between agents (size of network and hubs in a social network).

  13. Why is the oil price not about equilibrium?: An economic sociology account of petroleum markets

    Belyi, Andrei V.

    2016-01-01

    This opinion paper seeks to initiate discussion of the institutional and societal causes of oil price. On this basis, the social embeddedness concept is proposed instead of the frequently used producer-consumer juxtaposition. Observation shows no linearity between resource distribution imbalances and supply dynamics on the one hand and price on the other. As a socially endogenous factor, oil price generates practices and norms comprising benchmarks for resource valuation, stock market dynamics and risk aversion practices. A high oil price incentivises investments and inter-fuel competition, whereas a low oil price increases both political and market risks beyond the consumer-producer conceptualisation. Hence, it is argued that the notion of oil price affordability in energy security should be revised. - Highlights: •Oil price is not about affordability but about social embeddedness processes. •Producer-Consumer juxtaposition stems from resource-determinism concept. •Elevated oil price postpones peak oil and favors inter-fuel competition. •Important symbolisms surrounding the oil price exists in terms of business perspectives and political risk aversion.

  14. Simulation of sovereign CDS market based on interaction between market participant

    Ko, Bonggyun; Kim, Kyungwon

    2017-08-01

    A research for distributional property of financial asset is the subject of intense interest not only for financial theory but also for practitioner. Such respect is no exception to CDS market. The CDS market, which began to receive attention since the global financial debacle, is not well researched despite of the importance of research necessity. This research introduces creation of CDS market and use Ising system utilizing occurrence characteristics (to shift risk) as an important factor. Therefore the results of this paper would be of great assistance to both financial theory and practice. From this study, not only distributional property of the CDS market but also various statistics like multifractal characteristics could promote understanding about the market. A salient point in this study is that countries are mainly clustering into 2 groups and it might be because of market situation and geographical characteristics of each country. This paper suggested 2 simulation parameters representing this market based on understanding such CDS market situation. The estimated parameters are suitable for high and low risk event of CDS market respectively and these two parameters are complementary and can cover not only basic statistics but also multifractal properties of most countries. Therefore these estimated parameters can be used in researches preparing for a certain event (high or low risk). Finally this research will serve as a momentum double-checking indirectly the performance of Ising system based on these results.

  15. Microbial Enhanced Oil Recovery: 3D Simulation with Gravity Effects

    Nielsen, Sidsel Marie; Jessen, K.; Shapiro, Alexander

    2010-01-01

    Microbial enhanced oil recovery (MEOR) utilizes the activity of microorganisms, where microorganisms simultaneously grow in a reservoir and convert substrate into recovery enhancing products (usually, surfactants). In order to predict the performance of a MEOR process, a simulation tool is required...... using an operator splitting technique. To the best of our knowledge, this has resulted in the first full 3D MEOR streamline simulator. For verification purposes, we compare results from our streamline MEOR simulator to those of a conventional finite difference approach for 1D and 2D displacement...

  16. Enhanced oil recovery by nanoparticles injection: Modeling and simulation

    El-Amin, Mohamed; Sun, Shuyu; Salama, Amgad

    2013-01-01

    In the present paper, a mathematical model and numerical simulation to describe the nanoparticles-water suspension imbibes into a water-oil two-phase flow in a porous medium is introduced. We extend the model to include the negative capillary pressure and mixed relative permeabilities correlations to fit with the mixed-wet system. Also, buoyancy and capillary forces as well as Brownian diffusion are considered. Throughout this investigation, we monitor the changing of the fluids and solid properties due to addition of the nanoparticles and check for possible enhancement of the oil recovery process using numerical experiments.

  17. Plasticizer contamination in edible vegetable oil in a U.S. retail market.

    Bi, Xiaolong; Pan, Xiaojun; Yuan, Shoujun; Wang, Qiquan

    2013-10-02

    With the wide application of plastics, the contamination of plasticizers migrating from plastic materials in the environment is becoming ubiquitous. The presence of phthalates, the major group of plasticizers, in edible items has gained increasingly more concern due to their endocrine disrupting property. In this study, 15 plasticizers in 21 edible vegetable oils purchased from a U.S. retail market were analyzed using gas chromatograph-mass spectrometry. Di(2-ethylhexyl) phthalate (DEHP) and diisobutyl phthalate (DiBP) were detected in all oil samples. Benzylbutyl phthalate (BzBP), dibutyl phthalate (DBP), and diethyl phthalate (DEP) were detected at a rate of 95.2, 90.5, and 90.5%, respectively. The detection rates for all other plasticizers ranged from 0 to 57.1%. The content of total plasticizers in oil samples was determined to be 210-7558 μg/kg, which was comparable to the content range in oil marketed in Italy. Although no significant difference (p = 0.05) in the total content of plasticizer was observed among oil species (soybean, canola, corn, and olive), the wider range and higher average of total content of plasticizers in olive oil than other oil species indicated the inconsistence of plasticizer contamination in olive oil and a possible priority for quality monitoring. No significant difference (p = 0.05) in the total content of plasticizers was found among glass-bottle (n = 4), plastic-bottle (n = 14), and metal-can (n = 3) packaging, implying that oil packaging is not the major cause of plasticizer contamination. The daily intake amount of plasticizers contained in edible oil on this U.S. retail market constituted only a minimum percentage of reference dose established by US EPA, thus no obvious toxicological effect might be caused. However, the fact that DEHP content in two olive oils exceeded relevant special migration limits (SMLs) of Europe and China might need attention.

  18. The social costs to the US of monopolization of the world oil market, 1972--1991

    Greene, D.L.; Leiby, P.N.

    1993-03-01

    The partial monopolization of the world oil market by the OPEC cartel has produced significant economic costs to the economies of the world. This paper reports estimates of the costs of monopolization of oil to the US over the period 1972--1991. Two fundamental assumptions of the analysis are, (1) that OPEC has acted as a monopoly, albeit with limited control, knowledge, and ability to act and, (2) that the US and other consuming nations could, through collective (social) action affect the cartel's ability to act as a monopoly. We measure total costs by comparing actual costs for the 1972--1991 period to a hypothetical ''more competitive'' world oil market scenario. By measuring past costs we avoid the enormous uncertainties about the future course of the world oil market and leave to the reader's judgment the issue of how much the future will be like the past. We note that total cost numbers cannot be used to determine the value of reducing US oil use by one barrel. They are useful for describing the overall size of the petroleum problem and are one important factor in deciding how much effort should be devoted to solving it. Monopoly pricing of oil transfers wealth from US oil consumers to foreign oil producers and, by increasing theeconomic scarcity of oil, reduces the economy's potential to produce. The actions of the OPEC cartel have also produced oil price shocks, both upward and downward, that generate additional costs because of the economy's inherent inability to adjust quickly to a large change in energy prices. Estimated total costs to the United States from these three sources for the 1972--1991 period are put at $4.1 trillion in 1990$($1.2 T wealth transfer, $0.8 T macroeconomic adjustment costs, $2.1 T potential GNP losses). The cost of the US's primary oil supply contingency program is small ($10 B) by comparison

  19. Analyzing and forecasting volatility spillovers, asymmetries and hedging in major oil markets

    Chang, Chia-Lin; McAleer, Michael; Tansuchat, Roengchai

    2010-01-01

    Crude oil price volatility has been analyzed extensively for organized spot, forward and futures markets for well over a decade, and is crucial for forecasting volatility and Value-at-Risk (VaR). There are four major benchmarks in the international oil market, namely West Texas Intermediate (USA), Brent (North Sea), Dubai/Oman (Middle East), and Tapis (Asia-Pacific), which are likely to be highly correlated. This paper analyses the volatility spillover and asymmetric effects across and within the four markets, using three multivariate GARCH models, namely the constant conditional correlation (CCC), vector ARMA-GARCH (VARMA-GARCH) and vector ARMA-asymmetric GARCH (VARMA-AGARCH) models. A rolling window approach is used to forecast the 1-day ahead conditional correlations. The paper presents evidence of volatility spillovers and asymmetric effects on the conditional variances for most pairs of series. In addition, the forecast conditional correlations between pairs of crude oil returns have both positive and negative trends. Moreover, the optimal hedge ratios and optimal portfolio weights of crude oil across different assets and market portfolios are evaluated in order to provide important policy implications for risk management in crude oil markets. (author)

  20. Analyzing and forecasting volatility spillovers, asymmetries and hedging in major oil markets

    Chang, Chia-Lin [Department of Applied Economics National Chung Hsing University Taichung, 250 Kuo Kuang Road, National Chung Hsing University Taichung 402 (China); McAleer, Michael [Econometric Institute, Erasmus School of Economics, Erasmus University Rotterdam (Netherlands); Tinbergen Institute (Netherlands); Tansuchat, Roengchai [Faculty of Economics, Maejo University (Thailand)

    2010-11-15

    Crude oil price volatility has been analyzed extensively for organized spot, forward and futures markets for well over a decade, and is crucial for forecasting volatility and Value-at-Risk (VaR). There are four major benchmarks in the international oil market, namely West Texas Intermediate (USA), Brent (North Sea), Dubai/Oman (Middle East), and Tapis (Asia-Pacific), which are likely to be highly correlated. This paper analyses the volatility spillover and asymmetric effects across and within the four markets, using three multivariate GARCH models, namely the constant conditional correlation (CCC), vector ARMA-GARCH (VARMA-GARCH) and vector ARMA-asymmetric GARCH (VARMA-AGARCH) models. A rolling window approach is used to forecast the 1-day ahead conditional correlations. The paper presents evidence of volatility spillovers and asymmetric effects on the conditional variances for most pairs of series. In addition, the forecast conditional correlations between pairs of crude oil returns have both positive and negative trends. Moreover, the optimal hedge ratios and optimal portfolio weights of crude oil across different assets and market portfolios are evaluated in order to provide important policy implications for risk management in crude oil markets. (author)

  1. Short-term predictability of crude oil markets: A detrended fluctuation analysis approach

    Alvarez-Ramirez, Jose; Alvarez, Jesus; Rodriguez, Eduardo

    2008-01-01

    This paper analyzes the auto-correlations of international crude oil prices on the basis of the estimation of the Hurst exponent dynamics for returns over the period from 1987 to 2007. In doing so, a model-free statistical approach - detrended fluctuation analysis - that reduces the effects of non-stationary market trends and focuses on the intrinsic auto-correlation structure of market fluctuations over different time horizons, is used. Tests for time variations of the Hurst exponent indicate that over long horizons the crude oil market is consistent with the efficient market hypothesis. However, meaningful auto-correlations cannot be excluded for time horizons smaller than one month where the Hurst exponent manifests cyclic, non-periodic dynamics. This means that the market exhibits a time-varying short-term inefficient behavior that becomes efficient in the long term. The proposed methodology and its findings are put in perspective with previous studies and results. (author)

  2. The world oil market is not one great pool: A reply to Rodriguez and Williams

    Weiner, R.J.

    1993-01-01

    In a paper by Rodriguez and Williams (Energy Studies Review, 1993), the case for a single-pool world oil market is put forward. Criticisms of the assumptions and conclusions are offered. To counter the paper's assumption that antitrust is the relevant metric for measuring the extent of geographic markets, it is argued that for energy security policy decisions, it is the economic market which matters. The paper does show that the world oil market is indeed unified in the long run, but this is not relevant to the short term, the relevant time-frame for energy security decisions. The paper's choice of spot market data for its cointegration analysis is also criticized by using several examples of pricing decisions that would not make sense in a unified world market but which do make sense in a regionalized market. It is also unclear how representative spot prices are of the oil market. Finally, the conclusions of the paper that favor policies focusing on secure vs insecure import sources and supplier diversification are seen as unsupported by the paper's statistical findings. 15 refs

  3. Structural problems of the heating oil economy pose a challenge to natural gas marketing

    Zeller, U.

    1995-01-01

    The Swiss heating market is characterised by hard crowding-out competition. New energy carriers are entering the market while at the same time the demand declines. Natural gas is conquering one field of application after another and since years has steadily been increasing its share of the market. The corresponding loss of territory on the part of heating oil dealers has until now not been so tangible because it was compensated by a phase of growing demand during the past few years. If the current trend continues, then overcapacities in heat distribution and energy supply are to be expected for the future. The market will become especially difficult for heating oil dealers, as their decreasing overall share in the market will no longer be compensated by a growth in market volume, their former crutch for keeping up scales. The fight for market shares is therefore expected to become a great deal harder and have a direct impact on the natural gas economy. Commissioned by the Swiss gas industry, the Research Institute for Trade and Sales of St. Gallen University has made a study of the Swiss heating oil market. (orig.) [de

  4. The role of market fundamentals and speculation in recent price changes for crude oil

    Kaufmann, Robert K.

    2011-01-01

    I hypothesize that the price spike and collapse of 2007-2008 are driven by both changes in both market fundamentals and speculative pressures. Contrary to arguments for a demand shock, I hypothesize that prices rise sharply in 2007-2008 because ongoing growth in Chinese oil demand runs into a sudden and unexpected halt to a decade long increase in non-OPEC production. This caused a loss of OPEC spare capacity because increased demand for OPEC production runs ahead of increases in OPEC capacity. These changes are reinforced by speculative expectations. Although difficult to measure directly, I argue for the role of speculation based on the following: (1) a significant increase in private US crude oil inventories since 2004; (2) repeated and extended break-downs (starting in 2004) in the cointegrating relationship between spot and far month future prices that are inconsistent with the law of one price and arbitrage opportunities; and (3) statistical and predictive failures by an econometric model of oil prices that is based on market fundamentals. These changes are related to the behavior and impact of noise traders on asset prices to sketch mechanisms by which speculative expectations can affect crude oil prices. - Research Highlights: → The 2007-2009 spike and collapse in oil prices is caused by a combination of market fundamentals and speculative expectations. → The rise is caused by an unexpected hiatus in non-OPEC oil production, not a sudden increase in demand. → The role of speculation is suggested by an increase in oil inventories, which reverses a twenty year period of declines, a decoupling between spot and futures prices, which violates the law of one price, and a breakdown of empirical models of oil prices based solely on market fundamentals. → Speculative expectations affect oil prices via noise traders, who create a risk that deters rational arbitrageurs from betting against them.

  5. Molecular Dynamics Simulation: The Behavior of Asphaltene in Crude Oil and at the Oil/Water Interface

    Gao, Fengfeng; Xu, Zhen; Liu, Guokui; Yuan, Shiling

    2014-01-01

    of the repulsion of the anionic headgroups. Anionic C5 Pe has a distinct affinity to the oil/water interface during the simulation, while the C5 Pe molecules persist in the crude oil domain. A three-stage model of anionic C5 Pe molecules adsorbed at the oil

  6. Nature preservation acceptance model applied to tanker oil spill simulations

    Friis-Hansen, Peter; Ditlevsen, Ove Dalager

    2003-01-01

    is exemplified by a study of oil spills due to simulated tanker collisions in the Danish straits. It is found that the distribution of the oil spill volume per spill is well represented by an exponential distribution both in Oeresund and in Great Belt. When applied in the Poisson model, a risk profile reasonably...... acceptance criterion for the pollution of the environment. This NPWI acceptance criterion is applied to the oil spill example....... be defined in a similar way as the so-called Life Quality Index defined by Nathwani et al [Nathwani JS, Lind NC, Padey MD. Affordable safety by choice: the life quality method. Institute for Risk Research, University of Waterloo; Waterloo (Ontario, Canada):1997], and can be used to quantify the risk...

  7. Incorporating Customer Lifetime Value into Marketing Simulation Games

    Cannon, Hugh M.; Cannon, James N.; Schwaiger, Manfred

    2010-01-01

    Notwithstanding the emerging prominence of customer lifetime value (CLV) and customer equity (CE) in the marketing literature during the past decade, virtually nothing has been done to address these concepts in the literature on simulation and gaming. This article addresses the failing, discussing the nature of CLV and CE and demonstrating how…

  8. The Paper Airplane Challenge: A Market Economy Simulation. Lesson Plan.

    Owens, Kimberly

    This lesson plan features a classroom simulation that helps students understand the characteristics of a market economic system. The lesson plan states a purpose; cites student objectives; suggests a time duration; lists materials needed; and details a step-by-step teaching procedure. The "Paper Airplane Challenge" handout is attached. (BT)

  9. Transportation in the future : blind side of the oil market

    Schipper, L.

    2002-01-01

    The first oil embargo of 1974 and the oil crisis of 1979/1980 demonstrated that of all sectors, the transportation sector is the most threatened by abrupt changes in fuel prices. For that reason, the International Energy Agency (IEA) and member countries have strived to develop a good set of analytical tools for forecasting future energy demand in transportation. This presentation addressed issues regarding oil demand and explained why it may never be the same. Oil demand has been changed by the imposition of fuel economy standards in North America, voluntary agreements to limit fuel consumption in Europe, and the freight related component. Motor vehicle ownership is growing significantly in developing countries. Neither oil problems nor carbon dioxide emissions will slow that growth for a long time to come. Traffic congestion and pollution are major problems in most of the developing world. Therefore, policies to save oil or reduce carbon dioxide emissions should be integrated with strategies to improve transportation and clean the air in developing countries. New incentives may include clean vehicles, fuel efficiency, clean and low carbon fuels, and transportation planning. The paper also described how information technology, such as use of the Internet, is a low energy product that can boost economic activity and which in the future, may have a broader impact on transportation. It was concluded that while transportation energy is driven by economic growth, it can be impacted by higher prices and by energy policies. 16 figs

  10. Centennial review-forecast--oil sands, shales spar for markets

    Pamenter, C B

    1967-09-01

    The relationship between possible developments of tar sands and oil shale deposits to the future of the oil and gas industry is examined. The Athabasca tar sands are estimated to contain 85 billion bbl of synthetic crude oil which can be exploited using currently available mining equipment and proven techniques. Another 240 billion bbl of synthetic crude are potentially available through in-situ extraction methods. Great Canadian Oil Sands Ltd. is using an extraction procedure which involves a surface mining operation, extraction and processing of the bitumen, and product shipments via a 266-mile pipeline. This procedure will be used to produce 45,000 bpd of synthetic crude and 300 ton per day of sulfur. Syncrude Canada Ltd. and Shell Canada Ltd. both have applied to the Alberta government for permission to operate 100,000-bpd operations. Syncrudes is a mining operation and Shell plans to use in-situ extraction. A number of companies have conducted research projects concerning shale oil recovery. The majority of these projects have been aimed at improving mining operations. In-situ retorting of kerogen and extraction of oil has also received consideration.

  11. The instability of world oil market and its impact on economic development: Indonesia's experience

    Patmosukismo, S.

    1991-01-01

    The world oil market has been characterized by fluctuating prices which have a direct impact on the world economy. If the world oil price rises in real terms, upstream activities become more attractive to producers, and if the price declines, downstream opportunities become more attractive. The world oil market is currently determined not only by producers and consumers, but also by the futures trade. In addition, the elasticity of oil prices has increased since the 1970s through competition among producers and competition from other energy sources. The Asia Pacific countries are experiencing rapid economic growth, and are thus heavily dependent on oil, but generally have small reserves. Their reserves/production ratio is ca 20 years, with a major share coming from China and Indonesia. The current situation of tight and inadequate supply may increase the region's dependence on Middle East sources. The effects of the three recent major oil crises on the Asia Pacific countries are reviewed and the role of oil and gas in Indonesia's economic development is described. Export earnings from oil and gas represent a major share of total Indonesian export revenues, and taxes and receipts from oil companies continue to be the largest receipts in Indonesian government revenues. Slow changes in the primary fuel mix and high growth in domestic consumption may turn Indonesia into a net oil importer before the year 2000. A major effort to decrease domestic oil consumption has been implemented by using natural gas and coal in the power generation sector. On the supply side, recoverable oil and gas reserves of 50 billion bbl and 200 trillion ft 3 respectively may be present but their development depends on the investment scheme of the continuing exploration program

  12. Testing the weak-form efficiency of the WTI crude oil futures market

    Jiang, Zhi-Qiang; Xie, Wen-Jie; Zhou, Wei-Xing

    2014-07-01

    The weak-form efficiency of energy futures markets has long been studied and empirical evidence suggests controversial conclusions. In this work, nonparametric methods are adopted to estimate the Hurst indexes of the WTI crude oil futures prices (1983-2012) and a strict statistical test in the spirit of bootstrapping is put forward to verify the weak-form market efficiency hypothesis. The results show that the crude oil futures market is efficient when the whole period is considered. When the whole series is divided into three sub-series separated by the outbreaks of the Gulf War and the Iraq War, it is found that the Gulf War reduced the efficiency of the market. If the sample is split into two sub-series based on the signing date of the North American Free Trade Agreement, the market is found to be inefficient in the sub-periods during which the Gulf War broke out. The same analysis on short-time series in moving windows shows that the market is inefficient only when some turbulent events occur, such as the oil price crash in 1985, the Gulf war, and the oil price crash in 2008.

  13. Humps in the volatility structure of the crude oil futures market: New evidence

    Chiarella, Carl; Kang, Boda; Nikitopoulos, Christina Sklibosios; Tô, Thuy-Duong

    2013-01-01

    This paper analyses the volatility structure of commodity derivatives markets. The model encompasses hump-shaped, unspanned stochastic volatility, which entails a finite-dimensional affine model for the commodity futures curve and quasi-analytical prices for options on commodity futures. Using an extensive database of crude oil futures and futures options spanning 21 years, we find the presence of hump-shaped, partially spanned stochastic volatility in the crude oil market. The hump shaped feature is more pronounced when the market is more volatile, and delivers better pricing as well as hedging performance under various dynamic factor hedging schemes. - Highlights: • This paper analyses the volatility structure of commodity derivatives markets. • 21-years of data on crude oil futures and futures options is used. • The crude oil futures market has hump-shaped, unspanned stochastic volatility. • The hump shaped feature is more pronounced when the market is more volatile. • Hump shape delivers better pricing and hedging compared to exponential decay

  14. 77 FR 21391 - Marketing Order Regulating the Handling of Spearmint Oil Produced in the Far West; Revision of...

    2012-04-10

    ... annual allotments after October 31 of each marketing year. As a result, the Committee has calculated that... pounds, the result is a total available supply of Scotch spearmint oil for the 2011-2012 marketing year...

  15. European oil demand and 1993 Common Market potential effects

    Chevalier, J.M.

    1991-01-01

    Unification of the energy european market will heavily enhance external energy dependence and inter-energy competition. In order to respond to these new challenges, petroleum industry will have to change, probably in the direction of an increased integration concentration. Petroleum market share, moreover, will depend largely from environmental trends in EEC politics and regulations

  16. Planning Oil Prices In The World Market And Preventive Policies In Energy Sector Of Iran

    Raees Dana, Fariborz

    1999-01-01

    The planning of oil prices in the world can not be analyzed by means of the market-competition theory or the game theory. The current prices seem to be influenced greatly by large energy consuming industries of developed countries, oil producing corporations and cartels, and oil productions outside of OPEC. There is a lack of necessary long term policies and planning so that drastic changes in market prices can be avoided. The goal of this paper is to suggest new policies by means of discussing in following issues: 1.Initiating some form of a financial support for OPEC with the necessary follow up. 2. Utilization of oil income in sectors organized to have the least susceptibility against income loss and the lowest impact on other sectors. 3. Reducing of oil production level in the local and global framework and starting in industrialization process. 4. Replacement of oil with natural gas at a faster rate. 5. improving the oil industry infrastructure for lowering production costs and increasing variety in products in light of country economic policies and occupational strategies. 6. Imposing self-reliance on development of oil-production technology

  17. Numerical Simulation of Oil Jet Lubrication for High Speed Gears

    Tommaso Fondelli

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The Geared Turbofan technology is one of the most promising engine configurations to significantly reduce the specific fuel consumption. In this architecture, a power epicyclical gearbox is interposed between the fan and the low pressure spool. Thanks to the gearbox, fan and low pressure spool can turn at different speed, leading to higher engine bypass ratio. Therefore the gearbox efficiency becomes a key parameter for such technology. Further improvement of efficiency can be achieved developing a physical understanding of fluid dynamic losses within the transmission system. These losses are mainly related to viscous effects and they are directly connected to the lubrication method. In this work, the oil injection losses have been studied by means of CFD simulations. A numerical study of a single oil jet impinging on a single high speed gear has been carried out using the VOF method. The aim of this analysis is to evaluate the resistant torque due to the oil jet lubrication, correlating the torque data with the oil-gear interaction phases. URANS calculations have been performed using an adaptive meshing approach, as a way of significantly reducing the simulation costs. A global sensitivity analysis of adopted models has been carried out and a numerical setup has been defined.

  18. Essays on the behavior of the oil market and OPEC

    Algudhea, Salim

    This dissertation consists of three essays. The first essay is mainly concerned with investigating the risk-responsive behavior of OPEC members. Economic theory suggests that producers respond to the risk of volatile price by lowering production level. In the case of OPEC, the risk of the volatility in the price of crude oil does not seem to be a key determinant in the production decision-making process. Engineering constraints, data frequency, and political consideration may be the main causes of such a result. In the second essay, we tested the presence of the asymmetric adjustment in the cheating behavior as a result of crude oil price shocks. We utilize a set of cointegration and error correction methods that do not assume a linear adjustment to test whether cheaters within OPEC respond more to positive or negative crude oil price shocks. We conclude that cheaters respond more to negative shocks than positive shocks in oil price. The inelastic nature of demand for oil seems to play a crucial role in such asymmetric behavior. When there is a negative price shock, OPEC producers compensate for the loss in revenue by overproducing (i.e. cheat). Yet, if there is a positive shock in the price of crude oil, OPEC producers have less incentive to overproduce because of the inelastic demand for oil. The third essay is concerned with testing for the asymmetric adjustment in gasoline prices in the U.S. We consider a Momentum Threshold Autoregressive (MTAR) process to test for the asymmetric adjustment in all of the possible stages that a gallon of gasoline goes through in order to find the source of asymmetry. Then, we examine the dynamics of gasoline prices using asymmetric error correction models based on the MTAR specifications. We find the asymmetric adjustment present in all stages. The asymmetry in the retail stage seems to be the result of insufficient demand faced by retailers.

  19. Price volatility, hedging and variable risk premium in the crude oil market

    Ahmad Jalali-Naini; Maryam Kazemi Manesh

    2006-01-01

    The crude oil price exhibits a high degree of volatility which varies significantly over time. Such characteristics imply that the oil market is a promising area for testing volatility models. Testing and predicting volatility using ARCH and GARCH models have grown in the literature. A useful application of the volatility models is in the formulation of hedging strategies. In this paper we compare the optimal hedge ratio for the crude oil using the classical minimum risk approach and use ARCH to incorporate the effect of heteroskedasticity in the residuals on the hedge ratio. In addition, we test for the existence of a variable risk premium in the crude oil market. We find that, assuming rational expectations, there is a non-zero risk premium. We test for the variability of the risk premia and find evidence in its support when we employed a multivariate GARCH model. (author)

  20. Regime-switching stochastic volatility. Evidence from the crude oil market

    Vo, Minh T.

    2009-01-01

    This paper incorporates regime-switching into the stochastic volatility (SV) framework in an attempt to explain the behavior of crude oil prices in order to forecast their volatility. More specifically, it models the volatility of oil return as a stochastic volatility process whose mean is subject to shifts in regime. The shift is governed by a two-state first-order Markov process. The Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo method is used to estimate the models. The main findings are: first, there is clear evidence of regime-switching in the oil market. Ignoring it will lead to a false impression that the volatility is highly persistent and therefore highly predictable. Second, incorporating regime-switching into the SV framework significantly enhances the forecasting power of the SV model. Third, the regime-switching stochastic volatility model does a good job in capturing major events affecting the oil market. (author)

  1. Time-varying predictability in crude-oil markets: the case of GCC countries

    El Hedi Arouri, Mohamed; Thanh Huong Dinh; Duc Khuong Nguyen

    2010-01-01

    This paper uses a time-varying parameter model with generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity effects to examine the dynamic behavior of crude-oil prices for the period February 7, 1997-January 8, 2010. Using data from four countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council, we find evidence of short-term predictability in oil-price changes over time, except for several short sub-periods. However, the hypothesis of convergence towards weak-form informational efficiency is rejected for all markets. In addition, we explore the possibility of structural breaks in the time-paths of the estimated predictability indices and detect only one breakpoint, for the oil markets in Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. Our empirical results therefore call for new empirical research to further gauge the predictability characteristics and the determinants of oil-price changes.

  2. The shift in US oil demand and its impact on OPEC's market share

    Jabir, I.

    2001-01-01

    Tremendous political pressure is being exerted on the US government by different political parties to diversify its sources of foreign oil supplies by switching from the reliance on OPEC's oil to that originating from non-OPEC nations. Without a doubt, such a shift would adversely impact the market share of some OPEC members, particularly Saudi Arabia, Venezuela and Nigeria. These countries should therefore consider seriously the negative impact of this scenario and consequently formulate individual or joint production policies aiming at protecting their oil market share. To help OPEC achieve this objective, there is a need to estimate the demand function of US oil imports. This paper proffers an estimate of such a function, taking into account, among other variables, the impact of US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR)

  3. The Impact of United States Monetary Policy in the Crude Oil futures market

    Padilla-Padilla, Fernando M.

    This research examines the empirical impact the United States monetary policy, through the federal fund interest rate, has on the volatility in the crude oil price in the futures market. Prior research has shown how macroeconomic events and variables have impacted different financial markets within short and long--term movements. After testing and decomposing the variables, the two stationary time series were analyzed using a Vector Autoregressive Model (VAR). The empirical evidence shows, with statistical significance, a direct relationship when explaining crude oil prices as function of fed fund rates (t-1) and an indirect relationship when explained as a function of fed fund rates (t-2). These results partially address the literature review lacunas within the topic of the existing implication monetary policy has within the crude oil futures market.

  4. Volatility spillover from world oil spot markets to aggregate and electricity stock index returns in Turkey

    Soytas, Ugur; Oran, Adil

    2011-01-01

    This study examines the inter-temporal links between world oil prices, ISE 100 and ISE electricity index returns unadjusted and adjusted for market effects. The traditional approaches could not detect a causal relationship running from oil returns to any of the stock returns. However, when we examine the causality using Cheung-Ng approach we discover that world oil prices Granger cause electricity index and adjusted electricity index returns in variance, but not the aggregate market index returns. Hence, our results show that the Cheung-Ng procedure with the use of disaggregated stock index returns can uncover new information that went unnoticed with the traditional causality tests using aggregated market indices. (author)

  5. Does Merger Simulation Work? A "Natural Experiment" in the Swedish Analgesics Market Market

    Björnerstedt, Jonas; Verboven, Frank

    2012-01-01

    We exploit a natural experiment associated with a large merger in the Swedish market for analgesics (painkillers). We confront the predictions from a merger simulation study, as conducted during the investigation, with the actual merger effects over a two-year comparison window. The merger simulation model is based on a constant expenditures specification for the nested logit model (as an alternative to the typical unit demand specification). The model predicts a large price increase of 34% b...

  6. The impact of global oil price shocks on China’s bulk commodity markets and fundamental industries

    Zhang, Chuanguo; Chen, Xiaoqing

    2014-01-01

    This paper investigated the reaction of aggregate commodity market to oil price shocks and also explored the effects of oil price shocks on China's fundamental industries: metals, petrochemicals, grains and oilfats. We separated the volatilities of oil price into expected, unexpected and negatively expected categories to identify how oil prices influence bulk commodity markets. We contrasted the results between different periods and among classified indices, in order to discover the significant changes in recent years and the differences at an industry level. Our results indicate that the aggregate commodity market was affected by both expected and unexpected oil price volatilities in China. The impact of unexpected oil price volatilities became more complex after 2007. The metals and grains indices did not significantly respond to the expected volatility in oil prices, in contrast to the petrochemicals and oilfats indices. These results not only contribute to advancing the existing literature, but also merit particular attention from policy makers and market investors in China. - Highlights: • We investigated the impact of global oil price shocks on China’s bulk commodity markets and fundamental industries. • The aggregate commodity market was affected by both expected and unexpected oil price volatilities. • The impact of unexpected oil price volatilities became more complex after 2007. • The metals and grains indices did not significantly respond to the expected volatility in oil prices

  7. Opportunities - oil and gas development in the Mexican market

    1997-01-01

    This review of business opportunities is intended as a guide for Alberta companies who are interested in investing or otherwise participating in the Mexican oil and gas industry. The guide provides a brief summary of Mexico, its political, legal and economic system, a brief review of the Mexican oil and gas industry, environmental legislation, the financial institutions, labour/management relations and overseas trade relations. Opportunities for Alberta firms in the Mexican resources industry are identified. Steps to follow for anyone contemplating business with Pemex, the state-owned oil company, are outlined and sources of assistance available to Alberta companies are reviewed. There are various lists of private consultants, Canadian banks in Mexico, accounting firms, customs brokers, freight forwarders and tips on Canadian and Mexican sources of financing. There is also a summary of commercial regulations between Pemex and its suppliers, and an organization chart of the Exploration and Production Branch of Petroleos Mexicanos. tabs., figs

  8. Bio-Oil Deployment in the Home Heating Market

    Butcher, T. A. [Brookhaven National Lab. (BNL), Upton, NY (United States); Trojanowski, R. [Brookhaven National Lab. (BNL), Upton, NY (United States); Mante, O. [Brookhaven National Lab. (BNL), Upton, NY (United States); Wei, G. [Brookhaven National Lab. (BNL), Upton, NY (United States); Celebi, Y. [Brookhaven National Lab. (BNL), Upton, NY (United States); Huber, J. [Brookhaven National Lab. (BNL), Upton, NY (United States)

    2016-07-01

    Distillate fuel oil is used in many stationary heating applications, predominantly in the Northeastern part of the United States. Total estimated non-transportation distillate use in 2014 was estimated to be 10.9 billion gallons. This study has focused on potentially displacing part of this petroleum use with biofuel derived from woody biomass. The fuel production route considered is pyrolysis which creates a liquid fuel high in oxygen, organic acids, and water. While this fuel can be used in stationary applications without significant further processing, to do so would require significant upgrades in current heating equipment. Alternatively this raw pyrolysis oil can be upgraded through catalytic hydrogenation to produce a bio-oil with near-negligible oxygen, water, and acidity. The focus of this work has been exploration of such upgraded fuels. The quality of upgraded fuels is affected by process conditions and there is a cost /quality tradeoff.

  9. Oil and gas markets, companies, and technology in the 1990`s and beyond

    Kennedy, J.L.

    1995-08-01

    During the late 1990`s and beyond, oil prices will be stagnant while costs increase, competition for markets and capital will be fierce, funds available for exploration and development will be limited, and environmental extremists will keep prospective areas off-limits. Higher taxes will limit growth in oil and gas demand and reapportion energy market shares. And a campaign to brand oil use as an ``addiction`` that must be cured will gather steam. But opportunities abound, too, even in the US High-quality properties are available throughout the US, independents can find and develop reserves cheaper than the majors, and new tools are available to reduce risks both in the field and in the market. Gas prices are firming and natural gas is often labeled the ``fuel of the future.`` To succeed in the petroleum industry of the 1990`s, all companies must accept change, be creative, and take initiative. To prosper, oil and gas producers and refiners and those who supply and serve the industry must face the new realities of the market. They cannot mark time until the return of 4,000 active rigs and $40/bbl oil. those days are never coming back. Never.

  10. Stochastic simulation of off-shore oil terminal systems

    Frankel, E.G.; Oberle, J.

    1991-01-01

    To cope with the problem of uncertainty and conditionality in the planning, design, and operation of offshore oil transshipment terminal systems, a conditional stochastic simulation approach is presented. Examples are shown, using SLAM II, a computer simulation language based on GERT, a conditional stochastic network analysis methodology in which use of resources such as time and money are expressed by the moment generating function of the statistics of the resource requirements. Similarly each activity has an associated conditional probability of being performed and/or of requiring some of the resources. The terminal system is realistically represented by modelling the statistics of arrivals, loading and unloading times, uncertainties in costs and availabilities, etc

  11. Wavelet decomposition and regime shifts. Assessing the effects of crude oil shocks on stock market returns

    Jammazi, Rania; Aloui, Chaker [International finance group-Tunisia, Faculty of Management and Economic Sciences of Tunis, Boulevard du 7 novembre, El Manar University, B.P. 248, C.P. 2092, Tunis Cedex (Tunisia)

    2010-03-15

    While there is a large body of empirical studies on the relationship between crude oil price changes and stock market returns, they have failed to achieve a consensus on this subject. In this paper, we combine wavelet analysis and Markov Switching Vector Autoregressive (MS-VAR) approach to explore the impact of the crude oil (CO) shocks on the stock market returns for UK, France and Japan over the period from January 1989 to December 2007. Our procedure involves the estimation of the extended MS-VAR model in order to investigate the importance of the resultant wavelet filtering series (after removing random components) in determining the behavior of the stock market volatilities. We show that CO shocks do not affect the recession stock market phases (except for Japan). However, they significantly reduce moderate and/or expansion stock market phases temporarily. Moreover, this negative relationship appears to be more pronounced during the pre-1999 period. The empirical findings will prove extremely useful to investors who need to understand the exact effect of international oil changes on certain stocks prices as well as for policy managers who need a more thorough evaluation about the efficiency of hedging policies affected by oil price changes. (author)

  12. Wavelet decomposition and regime shifts: Assessing the effects of crude oil shocks on stock market returns

    Jammazi, Rania, E-mail: jamrania2@yahoo.f [International finance group-Tunisia, Faculty of Management and Economic Sciences of Tunis, Boulevard du 7 novembre, El Manar University, B.P. 248, C.P. 2092, Tunis Cedex (Tunisia); Aloui, Chaker, E-mail: chaker.aloui@fsegt.rnu.t [International finance group-Tunisia, Faculty of Management and Economic Sciences of Tunis, Boulevard du 7 novembre, El Manar University, B.P. 248, C.P. 2092, Tunis Cedex (Tunisia)

    2010-03-15

    While there is a large body of empirical studies on the relationship between crude oil price changes and stock market returns, they have failed to achieve a consensus on this subject. In this paper, we combine wavelet analysis and Markov Switching Vector Autoregressive (MS-VAR) approach to explore the impact of the crude oil (CO) shocks on the stock market returns for UK, France and Japan over the period from January 1989 to December 2007. Our procedure involves the estimation of the extended MS-VAR model in order to investigate the importance of the resultant wavelet filtering series (after removing random components) in determining the behavior of the stock market volatilities. We show that CO shocks do not affect the recession stock market phases (except for Japan). However, they significantly reduce moderate and/or expansion stock market phases temporarily. Moreover, this negative relationship appears to be more pronounced during the pre-1999 period. The empirical findings will prove extremely useful to investors who need to understand the exact effect of international oil changes on certain stocks prices as well as for policy managers who need a more thorough evaluation about the efficiency of hedging policies affected by oil price changes.

  13. Wavelet decomposition and regime shifts: Assessing the effects of crude oil shocks on stock market returns

    Jammazi, Rania; Aloui, Chaker

    2010-01-01

    While there is a large body of empirical studies on the relationship between crude oil price changes and stock market returns, they have failed to achieve a consensus on this subject. In this paper, we combine wavelet analysis and Markov Switching Vector Autoregressive (MS-VAR) approach to explore the impact of the crude oil (CO) shocks on the stock market returns for UK, France and Japan over the period from January 1989 to December 2007. Our procedure involves the estimation of the extended MS-VAR model in order to investigate the importance of the resultant wavelet filtering series (after removing random components) in determining the behavior of the stock market volatilities. We show that CO shocks do not affect the recession stock market phases (except for Japan). However, they significantly reduce moderate and/or expansion stock market phases temporarily. Moreover, this negative relationship appears to be more pronounced during the pre-1999 period. The empirical findings will prove extremely useful to investors who need to understand the exact effect of international oil changes on certain stocks prices as well as for policy managers who need a more thorough evaluation about the efficiency of hedging policies affected by oil price changes.

  14. Idemitsu Kosan establishes the lubricating oil marketer in Shanghai; Idemitsu, Shanhai ni junkatsuyu hansha

    NONE

    1999-08-01

    Idemitsu Kosan established 100% marketer 'Shanghai rising light lubricating oil trade limited company (SIL)' of the lubricating oil in China and Shanghai on 28th, and it was announced that the business activity was done from July first. Toshifumi Okubo (lubricating oil division three sections) takes to the president placed headquarters at (about 24000000 yen) 200000 dollar in the Shanghai outside high bridge bond ward new company capital. Employees are the 5 persons. The first year 3000 kilo liter is being estimated at the sales of (about six hundred million yen) 5 million dollar. (translated by NEDO)

  15. Oil refining and product marketing developments in Southeast Asia

    Szabo, A.M.

    1991-01-01

    It is estimated that the high growth rate in oil demand in the Asia-Pacific region (excluding Japan) will slow down slightly but still outperform the rest of the world during 1990-2000. This is expected to be true for southeast Asia as well, or more specifically the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). The region's dependence on oil imports from the Middle East will continue for the foreseeable future. Asia-Pacific crude oil production is expected to grow to 6.8 million bbl/d by 1995 and to 7.3 million bbl/d by 2000, meaning that the region will import nearly 50% of its crude oil requirements at both 1995 and 2000. The participation of ASEAN in the production of indigenous crudes in the Asia-Pacific region will increase from 31% in the mid-1980s to 41% by 2000. The Asia-Pacific imbalance between refinery output or supplies and demand patterns will be accentuated during the decade, providing significant opportunities for investments and/or product trading. The region will require upgrading facilities to generate an additional 3.7 million bbl/d of light products in 1995. In the ASEAN countries, surpluses in refined products are expected for 1995. Environmental concerns are following similar trends in the Asia-Pacific region as in the rest of the world, and the proportion of high aromatics gasolines produced will increase as the proportion of leaded gasoline decreases. 6 tabs

  16. Olive oil: an overview of the Japanese market

    Capogna Daniela

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available The article presents an overview of olive oil consumption in Japan, Asia’s largest per capita consumer and at present 14th in the world. Since the early 1990s, total purchases have increased from 4943 t in the 1992/93 campaign to 61 903 t in 2014/15, a more than 12-fold increase over the space of 22 years. Olive oil, in particular extra virgin olive oil, is appreciated by Japanese people primarily for its beneficial effects on health, as well as for its agreeable taste and for its cultural and historical associations. Other key factors to be considered are economic and cultural. Japan is one of the world’s largest economies; disposable incomes are high and these are reflected in household consumption behavior. Culturally, the country is increasingly open to the outside world, discovering and adopting practices from elsewhere, notably the West. This openness, allied to the country’s relative affluence, is demonstrated in the consumption of olive oil, a pillar of the Mediterranean Diet.

  17. A MODEL FOR THE PALM OIL MARKET IN NIGERIA: AN ECONOMETRICS APPROACH

    Henry Egwuma

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study is to formulate and estimate a model for the palm oil market in Nigeria with a view to identifying principal factors that shape the Nigerian palm oil industry. Four structural equation models comprising palm oil production, import demand, domestic demand and producer price have been estimated using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL cointegration approach over the 1970 to 2011 period. The results reveal that significant factors that influence the Nigerian palm oil industry include the own price, technological improvements, and income level. Government expenditure on agricultural development is also an important determinant, which underscores the need for government support in agriculture. Our model provides a useful framework for analyzing the effects of changes in major exogenous variables such as income or import tariff on the production, demand, and price of palm oil.

  18. The future world oil market: state of nature or social contract?

    Noel, P.

    1999-10-01

    Mary Ann Tetreault develops a very interesting interpretation of the emerging new relationship between international oil companies and Middle East producing countries. The original intellectual tools she handles-concepts drawn from the European political philosophy tradition-allow her to argue as follows: (1) the oil market left to itself- whether participants are states or firms-behaves like a Hobbesian ''state of nature'' often resulting in a situation damaging to each participant; (2) to deal with it, the international oil community has historically relied on different types of organisations, but these social contracts or ''republics'' were inherently unstable since they rested on too narrowly defined interests; (3) the rationale behind the possible return of oil companies to the richest Middle East countries is the search for new ''international oil republics'' able to ''offer greater security and higher profits for all the good republicans among them''. (author)

  19. Life cycle energy and greenhouse gas emissions from transportation of Canadian oil sands to future markets

    Tarnoczi, Tyler

    2013-01-01

    Oil sands transportation diversification is important for preventing discounted crude pricing. Current life cycle assessment (LCA) models that assess greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from crude oil transportation are linearly-scale and fail to account for project specific details. This research sets out to develop a detailed LCA model to compare the energy inputs and GHG emissions of pipeline and rail transportation for oil sands products. The model is applied to several proposed oils sands transportation routes that may serve as future markets. Comparison between transportation projects suggest that energy inputs and GHG emissions show a high degree of variation. For both rail and pipeline transportation, the distance over which the product is transported has a large impact on total emissions. The regional electricity grid and pump efficiency have the largest impact on pipeline emissions, while train engine efficiency and bitumen blending ratios have the largest impact on rail transportation emissions. LCA-based GHG regulations should refine models to account for the range of product pathways and focus efforts on cost-effective emission reductions. As the climate-change impacts of new oil sands transportation projects are considered, GHG emission boundaries should be defined according to operation control. -- Highlights: •A life cycle model is developed to compare transportation of oil sands products. •The model is applied to several potential future oil sands markets. •Energy inputs and GHG emissions are compared. •Model inputs are explored using sensitivity analysis. •Policy recommendations are provided

  20. The Global Oil and Gas Industry: the Market. Market Analysis - 2017-2020 Trends - Corporate Strategies

    2017-07-01

    This study presents: The medium-term and mega trends of the industry market developments and geographical segments; The competitive landscape and the main corporate rankings; The main conclusions of the report, summarised in 10 analytical slides. Content: 1. Market Fundamentals: Overview The Industry; 2. Market Environment and Prospects: Market Overview, Supply, Demand, Prices, Trade; 3. Corporate Strategies and Competition: Competitive Environment, Leaders' Recent Performances, Corporate Strategies; 4. Case Studies; 5. Statistical Appendix; 6. Sources; 7. Annexes

  1. Tapping into new markets for heavy crude : sustaining oil sands development in the long term

    Schrage, W.

    2003-01-01

    In 2002, 65 per cent of supply from the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin (WCSB) was shipped by Enbridge to North American markets. A survey of refineries is used by Enbridge to establish expected market demand for oil from the WCSB. An Oil Sands Markets Study was undertaken to provide answers to the following: (1) what volumes to which markets will maximize the value of WCSB production? (2) what mix of raw bitumen, synthetic and fully saturated synthetic best fits the available markets? and (3) what infrastructure expansions, extensions, conversions and new development will be required? Enbridge elected to use the North American petroleum model using Alto's MarketPoint system. It was adapted to evaluate crude oil and refined products. It is expected that by the end of the first quarter of 2003, the preliminary results will be available for review with industry. There are currently 20 crude types identified as available to refineries. All imported crude types will be included. Eight distinct classes of refined products were used: liquid propane gas (LPG), low and high sulphur gasoline, jet fuel, low and high sulphur distillate, asphalt and coke. All major conversion units were modeled for all 150 refineries in Canada and the United States. figs

  2. The modes of influence of oil on gas markets - The economy

    Maisonnier, Guy

    2016-01-01

    This article first indicates how the oil price has influence on some gas markets in the USA, in the UK and in the Asia-Pacific region. The author then focuses on this last region, notably Japan where the LNG market was strongly impacted by the oil price. Many Asian actors now want to reform the gas market in order to avoid such a strong influence. The author discusses the consequences of the development of shale gas exploitation in the USA, not only on the US domestic market, but also on Europe and Asia. In Europe, two types of prices are still coexisting: indexed and spot prices. Indexed prices might be reached in periods of tension on the market (during a cold winter), but the trend is globally oriented downwards. It seems that spot prices tend to converge toward indexed prices, at least in winter. Thus, despite the existence of indexed contracts, the influence of oil price is slowly decreasing. Finally, the author outlines upheavals experienced by the gas market since 2009 due to economic growth, development of shale gas, change of contract models, level of LNG supply, CO 2 price, increasing share of renewable energies

  3. Simulating surface oil transport during the Deepwater Horizon oil spill: Experiments with the BioCast system

    Jolliff, Jason Keith; Smith, Travis A.; Ladner, Sherwin; Arnone, Robert A.

    2014-03-01

    The U.S. Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) is developing nowcast/forecast software systems designed to combine satellite ocean color data streams with physical circulation models in order to produce prognostic fields of ocean surface materials. The Deepwater Horizon oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico provided a test case for the Bio-Optical Forecasting (BioCast) system to rapidly combine the latest satellite imagery of the oil slick distribution with surface circulation fields in order to produce oil slick transport scenarios and forecasts. In one such sequence of experiments, MODIS satellite true color images were combined with high-resolution ocean circulation forecasts from the Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS®) to produce 96-h oil transport simulations. These oil forecasts predicted a major oil slick landfall at Grand Isle, Louisiana, USA that was subsequently observed. A key driver of the landfall scenario was the development of a coastal buoyancy current associated with Mississippi River Delta freshwater outflow. In another series of experiments, longer-term regional circulation model results were combined with oil slick source/sink scenarios to simulate the observed containment of surface oil within the Gulf of Mexico. Both sets of experiments underscore the importance of identifying and simulating potential hydrodynamic conduits of surface oil transport. The addition of explicit sources and sinks of surface oil concentrations provides a framework for increasingly complex oil spill modeling efforts that extend beyond horizontal trajectory analysis.

  4. Strategies for risk management using the paper markets [to minimize oil price risks

    Annesley, M.

    1993-01-01

    The severe price movement experienced within energy markets during the last few years have awakened significant interest in hedging, and other uses of the futures, options, forward and derivative markets, to minimise price risk. There are two basic strands of structure of the markets now available for risk mangement. The first of these is the Exchange markets (IPE, NYMEX, and SIMEX) providing various futures and options alternatives; the second is the forward cargo contracts. The liquidity in these forward cargo markets, is variable but the contracts do provide some hedging and price risk management opportunities, which supplement and complement the Exchange markets, particularly for the professional risk managers and market makers. A range of forward markets is potentially available serving all regions. The more recent development of widely used derivative contracts, notably the swaps and price triggering in physical sale contracts, gives further alternatives from which interested companies may choose. The derivative market, although by definition off-exchange' may use either the Exchanges, forward markets or various oil publications for establishing their prices. Therefore, Exchange futures and options, forward markets and either standard or individually tailored derivatives all provide possible solutions to the risk management needs of coping with today's volatile prices. (author)

  5. The oil and gas equipment and services market in India

    2002-01-01

    In terms of purchasing power, India represents the fourth largest economy in the world. In the year April 1, 2001-Mar 31, 2002, it was estimated that India had a 5.4 per cent growth in gross domestic product (GDP). Canada experienced a 19.9 per cent increase in exports to India in 2001, reaching 656 million dollars. With the world's six-largest energy consumption, oil demand in India is expected to grow to 179 million tonnes in 2006-2007, while the demand for natural gas is expected to reach 231 million cubic metres per day in the same period. To meet this growing demand, India will require investments in the order of 150 billion dollars over the next 10 to 12 years. The oil and gas industry is being opened to the private sector and foreign direct investment, due to new government policies on exploration, production, distribution, and sales. Foreign involvement in exploration, previously restricted to Indian state-owned firms, is now allowed through the New Exploration Licensing Policy. In exploration and production (E and P) activities, as well as the refinery sector, foreign ownership of up to 100 per cent is now allowed. Two Indian companies which dominate the Indian E and P sector, namely Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) and Oil India Limited (OIL), will be upgrading their ageing infrastructure, purchasing new equipment and redeveloping existing oil and gas fields, thereby creating opportunities for the supply of equipment and services. Canadian companies possessing the latest technologies and services in exploration, drilling machinery and equipment, directional drilling services, production machinery and equipment, enhanced recovery services, deep-water drilling equipment and services, and equipment for coal methane E and P should benefit from these opportunities. Over 12,000 kilometres of pipelines are being planned across India, as well as private opportunities in the refinery sector which was opened to the private sector in April 2002. Occasional

  6. Simulation of an oil film at the sea surface and its radiometric properties in the SWIR

    Schwenger, F.; Eijk, A.M.J. van

    2017-01-01

    The knowledge of the optical contrast of an oil layer on the sea under various surface roughness conditions is of great interest for oil slick monitoring techniques. This paper presents a 3D simulation of a dynamic sea surface contaminated by a floating oil film. The simulation considers the damping

  7. Machine learning in sentiment reconstruction of the simulated stock market

    Goykhman, Mikhail; Teimouri, Ali

    2018-02-01

    In this paper we continue the study of the simulated stock market framework defined by the driving sentiment processes. We focus on the market environment driven by the buy/sell trading sentiment process of the Markov chain type. We apply the methodology of the Hidden Markov Models and the Recurrent Neural Networks to reconstruct the transition probabilities matrix of the Markov sentiment process and recover the underlying sentiment states from the observed stock price behavior. We demonstrate that the Hidden Markov Model can successfully recover the transition probabilities matrix for the hidden sentiment process of the Markov Chain type. We also demonstrate that the Recurrent Neural Network can successfully recover the hidden sentiment states from the observed simulated stock price time series.

  8. 77 FR 76341 - Marketing Order Regulating the Handling of Spearmint Oil Produced in the Far West; Revision of...

    2012-12-28

    ... October 17, 2012, meeting date. This leaves just 61,227 pounds of uncommitted salable Scotch spearmint oil... this action is essential to ensuring an adequate supply of Scotch spearmint oil to the market. As... levels. It is the opinion of the Committee and the spearmint oil industry that this action is essential...

  9. Chaos in oil prices? Evidence from futures markets

    Adrangi, B.; Chatrath, A.; Dhanda, K.K.; Raffiee, K.

    2001-01-01

    We test for the presence of low-dimensional chaotic structure in crude oil, heating oil, and unleaded gasoline futures prices from the early 1980s. Evidence on chaos will have important implications for regulators and short-term trading strategies. While we find strong evidence of non-linear dependencies, the evidence is not consistent with chaos. Our test results indicate that ARCH-type processes, with controls for seasonal variation in prices, generally explain the non-linearities in the data. We also demonstrate that employing seasonally adjusted price series contributes to obtaining robust results via the existing tests for chaotic structure. Maximum likelihood methodologies, that are robust to the non-linear dynamics, lend support for Samuelson's hypothesis on contract-maturity effects in futures price-changes. However, the tests for chaos are not found to be sensitive to the maturity effects in the futures contracts. The results are robust to controls for the oil shocks of 1986 and 1991

  10. The oil and gas equipment and services market in Bolivia

    2003-01-01

    The economy of Bolivia is based mainly on agriculture and resource extraction, making Bolivia one of the poorest countries in Latin America. Approximately 14 per cent of exports are hydrocarbons. Starting in 1996, the oil and gas sector was privatised, resulting in the domination of multinational corporations. It is estimated that the natural gas reserves of Bolivia stand in excess of 2.2 trillion cubic metres. Equipment, materials, and services used in all stages of the oil and gas production and distribution chain are all in demand in Bolivia. Over the medium term, it is expected that pipelines and equipment required for gas-fired power plants represent the most important opportunity in the country. Incentives for vehicle and industrial conversion were included in the new domestic energy plan, as well as the extension of the domestic gas distribution system to 250,000 homes. Canadian geomatics capability could fill the requirements concerning the Bolivian oil and gas assets still in the exploration, development, and documentation stages. Companies with exploration and development contracts, companies producing from commercial fields, refinery operators, producers in the liquid propane gas and compressed natural gas sub-sector, as well as pipeline operators are all considered key players, in addition to the Bolivian Chamber of Hydrocarbons. The customers are sophisticated buyers who purchase based on technical specifications and price negotiations. There are no significant non-tariff barriers, and Bolivia has adopted liberal trade policies. 9 refs., 3 tabs

  11. A Dynamic Remote Sensing Data-Driven Approach for Oil Spill Simulation in the Sea

    Jining Yan

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available In view of the fact that oil spill remote sensing could only generate the oil slick information at a specific time and that traditional oil spill simulation models were not designed to deal with dynamic conditions, a dynamic data-driven application system (DDDAS was introduced. The DDDAS entails both the ability to incorporate additional data into an executing application and, in reverse, the ability of applications to dynamically steer the measurement process. Based on the DDDAS, combing a remote sensor system that detects oil spills with a numerical simulation, an integrated data processing, analysis, forecasting and emergency response system was established. Once an oil spill accident occurs, the DDDAS-based oil spill model receives information about the oil slick extracted from the dynamic remote sensor data in the simulation. Through comparison, information fusion and feedback updates, continuous and more precise oil spill simulation results can be obtained. Then, the simulation results can provide help for disaster control and clean-up. The Penglai, Xingang and Suizhong oil spill results showed our simulation model could increase the prediction accuracy and reduce the error caused by empirical parameters in existing simulation systems. Therefore, the DDDAS-based detection and simulation system can effectively improve oil spill simulation and diffusion forecasting, as well as provide decision-making information and technical support for emergency responses to oil spills.

  12. Signals from the oil market. The right strategy at the right moment

    Correlje, A.; Van Geuns, L.

    2006-04-01

    The authors discuss the perceptions of the international oil market which are formed in the light of the current high oil prices, tight supplies, rapid demand growth, geopolitical turbulence and diminishing reserves. The authors argue that the world is not running out of oil in the near and medium term, albeit that substantial investments and continuing technological innovations are required to increase the world oil production capacity. The problem signalled is that observers and policy makers are tempted to mix up their interpretation of short term events and possible longer term developments. Market developments should be evaluated in the context of the time scale at which they occur. An accumulation of ad hoc policies, unrelated to the nature of the problem and timing, may have disastrous consequences for the oil market and energy supply. Over the longer term it is hard to make predictions about the interaction of specific technological, economic and political developments. Given these uncertainties, policy makers should strive for a type of energy policy making that is consistent with mid-term objectives. [nl

  13. Simulations of Microbial-Enhanced Oil Recovery: Adsorption and Filtration

    Nielsen, Sidsel Marie; Nesterov, Igor; Shapiro, Alexander

    2014-01-01

    In the context of microbial-enhanced oil recovery (MEOR) with injection of surfactant-producing bacteria into the reservoir, different types of bacteria attachment and growth scenarios are studied using a 1D simulator. The irreversible bacteria attachment due to filtration similar to the deep bed...... applied to filtration model provides formation of two oil banks during recovery. This feature is not reproduced by application of REA model or DBF with growth in attached phase. This makes it possible to select a right model based on the qualitative analysis of the experimental data. A criterion...... is introduced to study the process efficiency: the dimensionless time at which average recovery between pure water injection and maximum surfactant effect is reached. This characteristic recovery period (CRP) was studied as a function of the different MEOR parameters such as bacterial activity, filtration...

  14. A long run intertemporal model of the oil market with uncertainty and strategic interaction

    Lensberg, T.; Rasmussen, H.

    1991-06-01

    This paper describes a model of the long run price uncertainty in the oil market. The main feature of the model is that the uncertainty about OPEC's price strategy is assumed to be generated not by irrational behavior on the part of OPEC, but by uncertainty about OPEC's size and time preference. The control of OPEC's pricing decision is assumed to shift among a set of OPEC-types over time according to a stochastic process, with each type implementing that price strategy which best fits the interests of its supporters. The model is fully dynamic on the supply side in the sense that all oil producers are assumed to understand the working of OPEC and the oil market, in particular, the non-OPEC producers base their investment decisions on rational price expectations. On the demand side, we assume that the market insight is less developed on the average, and model it by means of a long run demand curve on current prices and a simple lag structure. The long run demand curve for crude oil is generated by a fairly detailed static long-run equilibrium model of the product markets. Preliminary experience with the model indicate that prices are likely to stay below 20 dollars in the foreseeable future, but that prices around 30 dollars may occur if the present long run time perspective of OPEC is abandoned in favor of a more short run one. 26 refs., 4 figs., 7 tabs

  15. Integrating market share models with network optimizing models for strategic planning in an oil pipeline company

    Smith, L.D.; Moses, S.W.

    1991-01-01

    Mathematical models of market share are constructed to describe the distribution of petroleum products from pipeline terminals, water terminals and refineries in the midcontinental United States. Network distribution models are developed to analyse the constraints and economics of alternative distribution systems. This paper describes how the two types of models were integrated for strategic planning in an oil pipeline company

  16. Modelling and Testing Volatility Spillovers in Oil and Financial Markets for USA, UK and China

    C-L. Chang (Chia-Lin); M.J. McAleer (Michael); J. Tian (Jiarong)

    2016-01-01

    textabstractThe primary purpose of the paper is to analyze the conditional correlations, conditional covariances, and co-volatility spillovers between international crude oil and associated financial markets. The paper investigates co-volatility spillovers (namely, the delayed effect of a returns

  17. The role of the broker and insurance of oil cargoes in the market

    Le Fevre, P.J.

    1993-01-01

    This article considers Lloyd's insurance brokers and their code of practice which covers their conduct, the need to meet the insurance requirements of clients, and the stipulation that advertisement should not be inaccurate. The Institute Bulk Oil Clauses 1983 and the American SP13C Clauses 1962, categories of clients and insurance markets are discussed. (UK)

  18. Oil market structure, network effects and the choice of currency for oil invoicing

    Mileva, Elitza; Siegfried, Nikolaus

    2012-01-01

    Crude oil is a homogeneous good traded on specialised exchanges and quoted and invoiced predominantly in US dollars. Despite the strong case for the use of the US dollar as a vehicle currency in the oil trade, we provide an alternative view. We develop a simple network effects model to identify the conditions under which either a complete switch in the oil invoicing currency or parallel invoicing in different currencies is possible and economically sensible. We calibrate the model using low actual values for the transaction costs of using euro and/or US dollars, as well as a proxy for information costs, which decline with the increase in the use of the new currency. The results show that there will be a switch to parallel invoicing in both currencies when two conditions are met: first, oil exporters expect that a certain minimum number of other oil exporters will also start using the new currency; and second, the information costs associated with quoting oil contracts in two currencies are low. - Highlights: ► The US dollar as the dominant currency in the international trade of crude oil. ► We develop a model that treats currencies as network goods. ► The model predicts multiple equilibria with one or two vehicle currencies. ► Calibration shows that a switch to parallel invoicing in two currencies is possible.

  19. Oil refining and product market developments in Europe

    McDonald, P.

    1991-01-01

    One political development in Europe that will affect the petroleum refining industry is the opening of a single market among the European Commission countries. Although the single market officially opens on January 1, 1993, a single market for energy will not happen at that time. Most European countries feel that refining is a strategic industry and adopt some form of protectionism in this sector. Environmental policy in Europe tends to be separate from energy policy, making conflicts in setting standards for emissions and fuel composition somewhat inevitable. For example, both environmental and energy policies favor a carbon tax on fuels; the EC environmental commission does not want to be seen as favoring nuclear power, so it favors penalizing all fuels about the same amount, while the energy commission says the carbon tax should be related to the fuel carbon content. A measure affecting the refining industry is the proposal for reducing sulfur in diesel fuel. By 1994 EC countries will have a common 0.2% standard and by 1996 a 0.05% standard for automotive diesel. To meet the latter standard, refineries will need upgrading at an estimated cost of US$4 billion. Another political consideration for the refining industry is whether eastern Europe should be part of the EC energy community. However, if there is a reluctance in the western European countries for a single western market, there is even less enthusiasm for an energy market that includes eastern Europe as well. In addition, there is a reluctance to accept that there should be a free flow of petroleum products from east to west

  20. Oil shock transmission to stock market returns: Wavelet-multivariate Markov switching GARCH approach

    Jammazi, Rania

    2012-01-01

    Since oil prices are typically governed by nonlinear and chaotic behavior, it’s become rather difficult to capture the dominant properties of their fluctuations. In recent years, unprecedented interest emerged on the decomposition methods in order to capture drifts or spikes relatively to this data. Together, our understanding of the nature of crude oil price shocks and their effects on the stock market returns has evolved noticeably. We accommodate these findings to investigate two issues that have been at the center of recent debates on the effect of crude oil shocks on the stock market returns of five developed countries (USA, UK, Japan, Germany and Canada). First, we analyze whether shocks and or volatility emanating from two major crude oil markets are transmitted to the equity markets. We do this by applying, the Haar A Trous Wavelet decomposition to monthly real crude oil series in a first step, and the trivariate BEKK Markov Switching GARCH model to analyze the effect of the smooth part on the degree of the stock market instability in a second step. The motivation behind the use of the former method is that noises and erratic behavior often appeared at the edge of the signal, can affect the quality of the shock and thus increase erroneous results of the shock transmission to the stock market. The proposed model is able to circumvent the path dependency problem that can influence the prediction’s robustness and can provide useful information for investors and government agencies that have largely based their views on the notion that crude oil markets affect negatively stock market returns. Second, under the hypothesis of common increased volatility, we investigate whether these states happen around the identified international crises. Indeed, the results show that the A Haar Trous Wavelet decomposition method appears to be an important step toward improving accuracy of the smooth signal in detecting key real crude oil volatility features. Additionally

  1. Evaluating environmental effects of oil spills by simulating the behaviour and spreading of oil on the sea surface

    Goncharov, V.K.; Ivanov, I.V.; Sokolov, A.N.

    2005-01-01

    The area of polluted surface of the sea and the volume of crude oil carried to the coastline are the main parameters that determine ecological damage. This paper considered some of the problems surrounding the assessment of environmental impacts caused by oil spills in the marine environment. Assessment of potential damage involves the analysis of many possible scenarios and the conditions that accompany them, including varying weather conditions. Computer simulations of the behaviour of spilled oil on the sea surface along with other criteria allow for the evaluation of the predicted scenario. Computer simulations provide knowledge of the spreading and drift of oil, as well as its volume and thickness. Knowledge of the following factors, combined with a knowledge of weather conditions is important in emergency response planning: vulnerability of oil pollution areas on shore; calculation of impact factors; detection of vulnerability to oil pollution; the possibility of incidents of the inadmissible oil pollution forecast; and results of a simulation of 48 hour drift of oil slick formed due to a spill in Devkin Zavod Bay. Adequate meteorological information is crucial for the development of valid data. Further progress is currently being developed for specific water areas around oil fields, tanker routes, seabed crude oil pipeline, wind currents, heaving, hydrological and environmental characteristics of sea water. 5 refs., 3 figs

  2. Multi-agent simulation of competitive electricity markets: Autonomous systems cooperation for European market modeling

    Santos, Gabriel; Pinto, Tiago; Morais, Hugo

    2015-01-01

    The electricity market restructuring, and its worldwide evolution into regional and even continental scales, along with the increasing necessity for an adequate integration of renewable energy sources, is resulting in a rising complexity in power systems operation. Several power system simulators...... have been developed in recent years with the purpose of helping operators, regulators, and involved players to understand and deal with this complex and constantly changing environment. The main contribution of this paper is given by the integration of several electricity market and power system models......, respecting to the reality of different countries. This integration is done through the development of an upper ontology which integrates the essential concepts necessary to interpret all the available information. The continuous development of Multi-Agent System for Competitive Electricity Markets platform...

  3. The Strategic Importance of the Global Oil Market

    2015-06-01

    cho- sen as PACOM Professional of the Year and U.S. Fed- eral Employee of the Year in 2006 and 2007. General David Petraeus awarded him the Joint...recovery may not be im- minent, signs are mounting that the tide is turning. The most tangible price effect is on the supply side. In this sense , a low oil...different.” Nothing short of a wholesale culture change in our global financial institutions is required, one that recognizes that the urgency of the

  4. Independents in European Gas Markets after liberalisation - downstream integration of upstream oil and gas companies

    Eikeland, Per Ove

    2005-01-01

    A central objective of gas market liberalisation in Europe in the 1990s was to increase competition by opening end-use markets for independent suppliers. Upstream oil and gas companies in Europe reacted to this opportunity by announcing strategies to integrate forward in European gas markets. By late 2004, however, upstream companies still recorded generally weak downstream strategy implementation in Europe. The article concludes that this general implementation gap should be explained by political failure in EU member states to abolish gas market barriers to entry for independents. Variation between companies in degree of implementation should be explained by variation in conditions in the companies' home markets / wider business spheres and internal company factors. (Author)

  5. The nexus between geopolitical uncertainty and crude oil markets: An entropy-based wavelet analysis

    Uddin, Gazi Salah; Bekiros, Stelios; Ahmed, Ali

    2018-04-01

    The global financial crisis and the subsequent geopolitical turbulence in energy markets have brought increased attention to the proper statistical modeling especially of the crude oil markets. In particular, we utilize a time-frequency decomposition approach based on wavelet analysis to explore the inherent dynamics and the casual interrelationships between various types of geopolitical, economic and financial uncertainty indices and oil markets. Via the introduction of a mixed discrete-continuous multiresolution analysis, we employ the entropic criterion for the selection of the optimal decomposition level of a MODWT as well as the continuous-time coherency and phase measures for the detection of business cycle (a)synchronization. Overall, a strong heterogeneity in the revealed interrelationships is detected over time and across scales.

  6. Market entry mode and competency building of Western oil companies in the Russian up stream oil and gas industry

    Stephenson, Paul M.

    This dissertation investigated the market entry and competency building strategies within the context of the Russian oil and gas industry. The study was designed to be of interest to business practitioners and academics given the growing importance of fossil fuel in the energy balance of the global economy and the importance of Russia as a supplier and purchaser in the international market. The study's mixed methodology provides an understanding on the environmental factors that are postulated to impact foreign direct investment flow into Russia and the oil and gas sector. A case study of a fictitiously named Western-Russo oil company was conducted to provide a deep understanding of how capability is viewed by Russian and Western employees and the factors that influences the implementation of a successful competency development program. The case was centered on the development of a Well-Site supervisor group within a Western-Russian oil company. Findings of the study showed that there was no correlation between corruption and foreign direct investment inflow into the Russian economy. The findings also showed that both Russian and Western employees in the oil and gas industry are less focused on nontechnical competency development issues, that Western employees are more orientated towards the bottom-line than Russian employees, and that both groups see operational management as a core competency. In the area of financial management and technology application, there were significant differences in the viewpoint of both groups. Western employees saw a stronger need for financial management and less need for technology application when compared to their Russian counterparts. The results have implications for Western business contemplating entering the Russian oil and gas industry. Western firms need to understand the key drivers that will help them overcome the social and cultural barriers between Western and Russian employees. The role of the company leader is very

  7. Strategic marketing opportunities for Suncor OSG [Oil Sands Group

    Carrothers, S.

    1993-01-01

    Suncor's Oil Sands Group (OSG) is in a unique position to provide advantages to its customers, producing a light, sweet resid-free crude at a time when North American production of this valuable type of oil is in decline. While the per-barrel production cost of synthetic crude has been high historically, the OSG has recently committed to over US$300 million in capital investments which will reduce unit costs to conventional levels. Adding to this, the plant is located on a reserve that, even with existing technology, could feed the plant virtually indefinitely. Three aggressive strategic initiatives which will enhance the value of the products are being undertaken. The product slate diversification initiative involves significantly expanding the production slate to include premium products that are customized to meet customer needs. The product quality initiative will address product characteristics that are unattractive to some end users. The transportation initiative will ensure reliable and timely delivery of a wide variety of OSG products to an expanded customer base. 1 fig

  8. Relationship between oil prices, interest rate, and unemployment. Evidence from an emerging market

    Dogrul, H. Guensel; Soytas, Ugur

    2010-01-01

    While the interrelation between oil price changes, economic activity and employment is an important issue that has been studied mainly for developed countries, little attention has been devoted to inquiries on fluctuations in the price of crude oil and its impact on employment for small open economies. Adopting an efficiency wage model for equilibrium employment that does not require any assumptions regarding labor supply, this paper contributes to the literature by investigating the causality between unemployment and two input prices, namely energy (crude oil) and capital (real interest rate) in an emerging market, Turkey for the period 2005:01-2009:08. Applying a relatively new technique, the Toda-Yamamoto procedure, we find that the real price of oil and interest rate improve the forecasts of unemployment in the long run. This finding supports the hypothesis that labor is a substitute factor of production for capital and energy. (author)

  9. US energy product supply elasticities. A survey and application to the US oil market

    Dahl, Carol; Duggan, Thomas E.

    1996-01-01

    We survey studies of simple energy supply models to find the most promising technique for developing supply elasticities in the U.S. crude oil market. The two dozen studies located include direct estimates of energy supply elasticities or cost studies from which supply or reserve elasticities can be inferred. We include all available studies for all forms of energy both primary and secondary. We find direct estimates of oil supply to obtain weak results unless depletion and price expectations are included. Oil product supply elasticities vary widely across studies but appear to be elastic. Studies that estimate reserve price elasticities by computing reserve costs appear to be the most promising for estimating reserve elasticities for fossil fuel supply. Hence we apply this technique to US oil reserves and find a reserve elasticity of 1.27

  10. The role of Canadian heavy crude oil in the North American market

    Mink, F J; Antonia, H A

    1977-01-01

    Canadian reserves of heavy gravity crude oil are vast and the potential producibility from those reserves is expected to be surplus to Canadian requirements into the 1990s. This study focuses on the impact that market constraints may have on the future supply of heavy gravity crude oils from the W. Canadian basin. It observes that severe export restrictions will not only limit the orderly development of available reserves in the area but also will impair the prospects of additional enhanced recovery of conventional heavy crude reserves and restrict future experimental applications of oil sands recovery in the Cold Lake deposit of Alberta. Since it is expected that export restrictions for heavy gravity crude oil will be lifted in the future, the outlook for expanded development of indigenous reserves is promising.

  11. Level shift two-components autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity modelling for WTI crude oil market

    Sin, Kuek Jia; Cheong, Chin Wen; Hooi, Tan Siow

    2017-04-01

    This study aims to investigate the crude oil volatility using a two components autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARCH) model with the inclusion of abrupt jump feature. The model is able to capture abrupt jumps, news impact, clustering volatility, long persistence volatility and heavy-tailed distributed error which are commonly observed in the crude oil time series. For the empirical study, we have selected the WTI crude oil index from year 2000 to 2016. The results found that by including the multiple-abrupt jumps in ARCH model, there are significant improvements of estimation evaluations as compared with the standard ARCH models. The outcomes of this study can provide useful information for risk management and portfolio analysis in the crude oil markets.

  12. Do emerging markets matter in the world oil pricing system? Evidence of imported crude by China and India

    Hong Li; Lin Xiaowen, Sharon

    2011-01-01

    This paper provides empirical evidence on the changing structure of world oil price system by identifying an additional driver-emerging market factor. We choose China and India as a representative of emerging markets to examine if the quantity of crude oil imported by China and India is significant in the existing oil pricing system (. Our data starts from January 2002 and ends in March 2010, which includes the oil shock of 2007-2008. We utilize cointegration and error correction model framework developed by and in the analysis. Our results indicate that demand from emerging markets has become a significant factor in the world oil pricing system since 2003. This result is significant as it lends empirical support to the widely held conjecture that the oil shock of 2007-2008 is a demand-led shock (). Our result also has significant policy implications that go beyond the oil shock. The emerging market factor is there to stay and reflects the changing power between emerging and developed economies in the world economic system as a result of decades of fast economic development in the former. It will certainly influence policy issues related to oil and beyond. - Highlights: → We test the existing oil price modelling with data from 2002-2010. → We find evidence of structural breaks in the world oil pricing model. → We find that emerging market factor is a new driver in the world oil pricing system since 2003. → The emerging market factor lends empirical support to 'consumption-led' conjecture of oil shock. → New factor reflects significant changes of oil demand landscape following shifting economic power.

  13. Market potential of solar thermal enhanced oil recovery-a techno-economic model for Issaran oil field in Egypt

    Gupta, Sunay; Guédez, Rafael; Laumert, Björn

    2017-06-01

    Solar thermal enhanced oil recovery (S-EOR) is an advanced technique of using concentrated solar power (CSP) technology to generate steam and recover oil from maturing oil reservoirs. The generated steam is injected at high pressure and temperature into the reservoir wells to facilitate oil production. There are three common methods of steam injection in enhanced oil recovery - continuous steam injection, cyclic steam stimulation (CSS) and steam assisted gravity drainage (SAGD). Conventionally, this steam is generated through natural gas (NG) fired boilers with associated greenhouse gas emissions. However, pilot projects in the USA (Coalinga, California) and Oman (Miraah, Amal) demonstrated the use of S-EOR to meet their steam requirements despite the intermittent nature of solar irradiation. Hence, conventional steam based EOR projects under the Sunbelt region can benefit from S-EOR with reduced operational expenditure (OPEX) and increased profitability in the long term, even with the initial investment required for solar equipment. S-EOR can be realized as an opportunity for countries not owning any natural gas resources to make them less energy dependent and less sensible to gas price fluctuations, and for countries owning natural gas resources to reduce their gas consumption and export it for a higher margin. In this study, firstly, the market potential of S-EOR was investigated worldwide by covering some of the major ongoing steam based EOR projects as well as future projects in pipeline. A multi-criteria analysis was performed to compare local conditions and requirements of all the oil fields based on a defined set of parameters. Secondly, a modelling approach for S-EOR was designed to identify cost reduction opportunities and optimum solar integration techniques, and the Issaran oil field in Egypt was selected for a case study to substantiate the approach. This modelling approach can be consulted to develop S-EOR projects for any steam flooding based oil

  14. The future of Alberta's oil and gas: Long-term strategies necessary to sustain markets

    Anon

    2002-01-01

    The Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers predicts that based on current combustion and depending on world oil prices, Canadian oil sands can supply North American demand for 40 years and Canadian natural gas can meet North American requirements for 20 years. Natural gas production in the U.S. is greater in total energy output than oil production of the world's largest oil producer, Saudi Arabia. At the same time the U.S. gas industry is confronting a unique and profound combination of events, namely it is facing the first true shortage of deliverable reserves in its history. This may be harsh news for the consumer, however, for Alberta's oil and gas industry, the new world energy order has the potential to be a huge blessing. With relatively large, unexploited oil and gas reserves and a next door neighbour with the world's most voracious appetite for fossil fuels, it is inevitable that much of this shortage is going to be satisfied by oil and gas from Canadian sources. Nevertheless, there are some barriers to be overcome. The greatest barriers to an assured U. S. market for Canadian oil and gas is competition from Venezuelan heavy crude and synthetic crude and light sour crude from the Gulf of Mexico. To assure a ready market for Canadian heavy crude in the U. S. Midwest, Canadian producers need to be pro-active in working with U. S. refiners to develop new conversion capacity, or develop upgrading in Canada. Mexico and Venezuela have been successfully participating in major U. S. expansions in coker projects to allow projects to run heavy crude. This will eventually result in an additional 600,000 barrels per day of heavy crude available on the U. S. market, putting further pressure on Canadian markets. The challenge is for Albertan producers to undertake similar strategies with U. S. Midwest refiners for heavy and synthetic crude. Long-term supply arrangements appear to be the only way to induce American Midwest refiners to make more investment to process

  15. Agent-based simulation of electricity markets : a literature review

    Sensfuss, F.; Genoese, M.; Genoese, M.; Most, D.

    2007-01-01

    The electricity sector in Europe and North America is undergoing considerable changes as a result of deregulation, issues related to climate change, and the integration of renewable resources within the electricity grid. This article reviewed agent-based simulation methods of analyzing electricity markets. The paper provided an analysis of research currently being conducted on electricity market designs and examined methods of modelling agent decisions. Methods of coupling long term and short term decisions were also reviewed. Issues related to single and multiple market analysis methods were discussed, as well as different approaches to integrating agent-based models with models of other commodities. The integration of transmission constraints within agent-based models was also discussed, and methods of measuring market efficiency were evaluated. Other topics examined in the paper included approaches to integrating investment decisions, carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) trading, and renewable support schemes. It was concluded that agent-based models serve as a test bed for the electricity sector, and will help to provide insights for future policy decisions. 74 refs., 6 figs

  16. Numerical Simulation of In Situ Combustion of Oil Shale

    Huan Zheng

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper analyzes the process of in situ combustion of oil shale, taking into account the transport and chemical reaction of various components in porous reservoirs. The physical model is presented, including the mass and energy conservation equations and Darcy’s law. The oxidation reactions of oil shale combustion are expressed by adding source terms in the conservation equations. The reaction rate of oxidation satisfies the Arrhenius law. A numerical method is established for calculating in situ combustion, which is simulated numerically, and the results are compared with the available experiment. The profiles of temperature and volume fraction of a few components are presented. The temperature contours show the temperature variation in the combustion tube. It is found that as combustion reaction occurs in the tube, the concentration of oxygen decreases rapidly, while the concentration of carbon dioxide and carbon monoxide increases contrarily. Besides, the combustion front velocity is consistent with the experimental value. Effects of gas injection rate, permeability of the reservoir, initial oil content, and injected oxygen content on the ISC process were investigated in this study. Varying gas injection rate and oxygen content is important in the field test of ISC.

  17. A metric and topological analysis of determinism in the crude oil spot market

    Barkoulas, John T.; Chakraborty, Atreya; Ouandlous, Arav

    2012-01-01

    We test whether the spot price of crude oil is determined by stochastic rules or exhibits deterministic endogenous fluctuations. In our analysis, we employ both metric (correlation dimension and Lyapunov exponents) and topological (recurrence plots) diagnostic tools for chaotic dynamics. We find that the underlying system for crude oil spot prices (i) is of high dimensionality (no stabilization of the correlation dimension), (ii) does not exhibit sensitive dependence on initial conditions, and (iii) is not characterized by the recurrence property. Thus, the empirical evidence suggests that stochastic rather than deterministic rules are present in the system dynamics of the crude oil spot market. Recurrent plot analysis indicates that volatility clustering is an adequate, but not complete, explanation of the morphology of oil spot prices. - Highlights: ► We test whether the spot price of crude oil exhibits deterministic chaos. ► We employ both metric and topological diagnostic tools for chaos. ► Stochastic rules appear to govern the temporal evolution of oil prices. ► Volatility clustering explains the morphology of oil prices largely, but not entirely.

  18. Olive oil adulterated with hazelnut oils: simulation to identify possible risks to allergic consumers

    Arlorio, M.; Coisson, J. D.; Bordiga, M.; Travaglia, F.; Garino, C.; Zuidmeer, L.; van Ree, R.; Giuffrida, M. G.; Conti, A.; Martelli, A.

    2010-01-01

    According to European Union Regulation EC 1531/2001, olive oil labelled as oextra-virgino should be cold-pressed and contain no refined oil or oil from other oleaginous seeds or nuts. Adulteration of extra virgin olive oil (EVOO) with hazelnut oil (HAO) is a serious concern both for oil suppliers

  19. 77 FR 5385 - Marketing Order Regulating the Handling of Spearmint Oil Produced in the Far West; Revision of...

    2012-02-03

    ... the ``order.'' The order is effective under the Agricultural Marketing Agreement Act of 1937, as... DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE Agricultural Marketing Service 7 CFR Part 985 [Doc. Nos. AMS-FV-10-0094; FV11-985-1A FIR] Marketing Order Regulating the Handling of Spearmint Oil Produced in the Far West...

  20. 78 FR 23673 - Marketing Order Regulating the Handling of Spearmint Oil Produced in the Far West; Revision of...

    2013-04-22

    ... the ``order.'' The order is effective under the Agricultural Marketing Agreement Act of 1937, as... DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE Agricultural Marketing Service 7 CFR Part 985 [Doc. Nos. AMS-FV-11-0088; FV12-985-1A FIR] Marketing Order Regulating the Handling of Spearmint Oil Produced in the Far West...

  1. 77 FR 13019 - Marketing Order Regulating the Handling of Spearmint Oil Produced in the Far West; Salable...

    2012-03-05

    ... DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE Agricultural Marketing Service 7 CFR Part 985 [Doc. No. AMS-FV-11-0088; FV12-985-1 PR] Marketing Order Regulating the Handling of Spearmint Oil Produced in the Far West; Salable Quantities and Allotment Percentages for the 2012-2013 Marketing Year AGENCY: Agricultural...

  2. 78 FR 32070 - Marketing Order Regulating the Handling of Spearmint Oil Produced in the Far West; Salable...

    2013-05-29

    ... DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE Agricultural Marketing Service 7 CFR Part 985 [Doc. No. AMS-FV-12-0064; FV13-985-1 FR] Marketing Order Regulating the Handling of Spearmint Oil Produced in the Far West; Salable Quantities and Allotment Percentages for the 2013-2014 Marketing Year AGENCY: Agricultural...

  3. 76 FR 27852 - Marketing Order Regulating the Handling of Spearmint Oil Produced in the Far West; Salable...

    2011-05-13

    ... DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE Agricultural Marketing Service 7 CFR Part 985 [Doc. No. AMS-FV-10-0094; FV11-985-1 FR] Marketing Order Regulating the Handling of Spearmint Oil Produced in the Far West; Salable Quantities and Allotment Percentages for the 2011-2012 Marketing Year AGENCY: Agricultural...

  4. 77 FR 57037 - Marketing Order Regulating the Handling of Spearmint Oil Produced in the Far West; Change to...

    2012-09-17

    ... Service 7 CFR Part 985 [Doc. No. AMS-FV-12-0014; FV12-985-2 PR] Marketing Order Regulating the Handling of... Excess Spearmint Oil AGENCY: Agricultural Marketing Service, USDA. ACTION: Proposed rule. SUMMARY: This... Act (RFA), the Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS) has considered the economic impact of this action...

  5. Crude oil market efficiency and modeling. Insights from the multiscaling autocorrelation pattern

    Alvarez-Ramirez, Jose; Alvarez, Jesus; Solis, Ricardo

    2010-01-01

    Empirical research on market inefficiencies focuses on the detection of autocorrelations in price time series. In the case of crude oil markets, statistical support is claimed for weak efficiency over a wide range of time-scales. However, the results are still controversial since theoretical arguments point to deviations from efficiency as prices tend to revert towards an equilibrium path. This paper studies the efficiency of crude oil markets by using lagged detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) to detect delay effects in price autocorrelations quantified in terms of a multiscaling Hurst exponent (i.e., autocorrelations are dependent of the time scale). Results based on spot price data for the period 1986-2009 indicate important deviations from efficiency associated to lagged autocorrelations, so imposing the random walk for crude oil prices has pronounced costs for forecasting. Evidences in favor of price reversion to a continuously evolving mean underscores the importance of adequately incorporating delay effects and multiscaling behavior in the modeling of crude oil price dynamics. (author)

  6. Crude oil market efficiency and modeling. Insights from the multiscaling autocorrelation pattern

    Alvarez-Ramirez, Jose [Departamento de Ingenieria de Procesos e Hidraulica, Universidad Autonoma Metropolitana-Iztapalapa, Apartado Postal 55-534, Mexico D.F., 09340 (Mexico); Departamento de Economia, Universidad Autonoma Metropolitana-Iztapalapa, Apartado Postal 55-534, Mexico D.F., 09340 (Mexico); Alvarez, Jesus [Departamento de Ingenieria de Procesos e Hidraulica, Universidad Autonoma Metropolitana-Iztapalapa, Apartado Postal 55-534, Mexico D.F., 09340 (Mexico); Solis, Ricardo [Departamento de Economia, Universidad Autonoma Metropolitana-Iztapalapa, Apartado Postal 55-534, Mexico D.F., 09340 (Mexico)

    2010-09-15

    Empirical research on market inefficiencies focuses on the detection of autocorrelations in price time series. In the case of crude oil markets, statistical support is claimed for weak efficiency over a wide range of time-scales. However, the results are still controversial since theoretical arguments point to deviations from efficiency as prices tend to revert towards an equilibrium path. This paper studies the efficiency of crude oil markets by using lagged detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) to detect delay effects in price autocorrelations quantified in terms of a multiscaling Hurst exponent (i.e., autocorrelations are dependent of the time scale). Results based on spot price data for the period 1986-2009 indicate important deviations from efficiency associated to lagged autocorrelations, so imposing the random walk for crude oil prices has pronounced costs for forecasting. Evidences in favor of price reversion to a continuously evolving mean underscores the importance of adequately incorporating delay effects and multiscaling behavior in the modeling of crude oil price dynamics. (author)

  7. Maximising profitability through the use of simulation for new market crudes evaluation

    Mendez, Maryro P. [KBC Advanced Technologies, Surrey (United Kingdom)

    2012-07-01

    There is nothing that contributes more to the cost of production for a refinery than the cost of crude oil and other feedstocks. The efficient and effective evaluation and selection of crude oil to a refinery will have a very significant impact on its profitability. The crude oil selected will impact the utilization and output from different process units, has the potential to impact maintenance and energy costs, and will impact product properties from the refinery. The tools and knowledge necessary for a good new crude evaluation program are addressed as part of this paper. The work process is outlined in detail. Finally, we address some of the risk management issues inherent in processing high margin crudes. Innovative simulation tools like Petro-SIM offer the platform to evaluate opportunities to capture the value that the sour/sweet crude differential and that the new crudes coming in to the market have to offer for a given refinery configuration. The paper provides comments on how KBC's methodology has helped refiners to check their ability to run new challenging crudes. (author)

  8. Oil flow at the scroll compressor discharge: visualization and CFD simulation

    Xu, Jiu; Hrnjak, Pega

    2017-08-01

    Oil is important to the compressor but has other side effect on the refrigeration system performance. Discharge valves located in the compressor plenum are the gateway for the oil when leaving the compressor and circulate in the system. The space in between: the compressor discharge plenum has the potential to separate the oil mist and reduce the oil circulation ratio (OCR) in the system. In order to provide information for building incorporated separation feature for the oil flow near the compressor discharge, video processing method is used to quantify the oil droplets movement and distribution. Also, CFD discrete phase model gives the numerical approach to study the oil flow inside compressor plenum. Oil droplet size distributions are given by visualization and simulation and the results show a good agreement. The mass balance and spatial distribution are also discussed and compared with experimental results. The verification shows that discrete phase model has the potential to simulate the oil droplet flow inside the compressor.

  9. Currency risk and prices of oil and petroleum products: a simulation with a quantitative model

    Aniasi, L.; Ottavi, D.; Rubino, E.; Saracino, A.

    1992-01-01

    This paper analyzes the relationship between the exchange rates of the US Dollar against the four major European currencies and the prices of oil and its main products in those countries. In fact, the sensitivity of the prices to the exchange rate movements is of fundamental importance for the refining and distribution industries of importing countries. The result of the analysis shows that in neither free market conditions, as those present in Great Britain, France and Germany, nor in regulated markets, i.e. the italian one, do the variations of petroleum product prices fully absorb the variation of the exchange rates. In order to assess the above relationship, we first tested the order of co-integration of the time series of exchange rates of EMS currencies with those of international prices of oil and its derivative products; then we used a transfer-function model to reproduce the quantitative relationships between those variables. Using these results, we then reproduced domestic price functions with partial adjustment mechanisms. Finally, we used the above model to run a simulation of the deviation from the steady-state pattern caused by exchange-rate exogenous shocks. 21 refs., 5 figs., 3 tabs

  10. Early warning model based on correlated networks in global crude oil markets

    Yu, Jia-Wei; Xie, Wen-Jie; Jiang, Zhi-Qiang

    2018-01-01

    Applying network tools on predicting and warning the systemic risks provides a novel avenue to manage risks in financial markets. Here, we construct a series of global crude oil correlated networks based on the historical 57 oil prices covering a period from 1993 to 2012. Two systemic risk indicators are constructed based on the density and modularity of correlated networks. The local maximums of the risk indicators are found to have the ability to predict the trends of oil prices. In our sample periods, the indicator based on the network density sends five signals and the indicator based on the modularity index sends four signals. The four signals sent by both indicators are able to warn the drop of future oil prices and the signal only sent by the network density is followed by a huge rise of oil prices. Our results deepen the application of network measures on building early warning models of systemic risks and can be applied to predict the trends of future prices in financial markets.

  11. The Conflict in Syria: Key Issues and Consequences on the International Market of Crude Oil

    Mariana Papatulică

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available At the end of August 2013, the international prices of Brent crude rose to a 17-month high ($ 117.8 /barrel as Western powers, mainly USA, readied a military strike against Syria, and traders and analysts cited concerns over stability in the Middle East. The main concern was the risk that Western intervention in Syria could prompt a wider regional conflict, given the support that Iran has provided to the regime of Syria. The attack failed to materialize, because U.S. and Russia reached an agreement with the goal of disarming Syria’s chemical weapon arsenal, and consequently the prices declined, but the risk of geopolitical and social unrest movementsAlpha is still high, so that a reactivation of geopolitical tensions in the extended area of Middle East and north Africa is anytime possible with the afferent disruptive effects on the international oil market. We tried to answer to some questions in order to clear up the background of the problem: 1 What was the real stake of the U.S. plan to intervene in Syria: the concern generated by chemical weapons or U.S. geostrategic interests in the wider Middle East? 2 Why Syria matters to oil market, given that it is not a major oil producer (as was Libya, nor is it a major transit point for oil and gas exports (as is Egypt? 3 The aftermath of a serious military action targeted against the Middle Eastern country and “qui prodest”? 4 Will Iran’s possible return to the world oil market send oil prices down, and how much?

  12. Forecasting Palm Oil Price Movements In Malaysia: Empirical Evidence from the Malaysian Palm Oil Futures Market.

    Amran, Zulfathi

    2010-01-01

    The palm oil industry is one of the main commodity industries in South East Asia. This is the case for the two main producers and exporters of crude palm oil in the world, Malaysia and Indonesia, and thus there is an importance placed on the trading of the commodity in Malaysia, especially for hedging purposes for the producers. This is because; the main use of the product is for exporting purposes rather than for consumption, and thus it is important if there is a tool that the producers or ...

  13. The evolution of oil markets: trading instruments and their role in price formation

    Roeber, J.

    1993-01-01

    The workings of the modern oil market are recondite, understood - if at all - mainly by specialists. By comparison with explanations of the currency markets and other financial mechanisms the literature is sparse. There are plenty of studies that analyse the economics of the oil business, but few that explain its inner workings. This study will help to fill the gap. It is of value for three main reasons. First, it offers an explanation by an acknowledged expert of a complex subject in terms which non-experts will be able to understand. Second, it provides practitioners in the trade with some valuable insights into deficiencies in the present market mechanisms which could with advantage be rectified. The market is bound to continue to evolve. Third, it points to some important policy conclusions, particularly about what is, and is not, possible in times of crisis. This study reinforces the view that the modern oil business is far too complex, fragmented and international to be subjected to old-style crisis management. (author)

  14. An empirical analysis of price expectations formation: Evidence from the crude oil reserves acquisitions market

    Vielhaber, L.M.

    1991-01-01

    Reasons for the recent scant empirical attention to price expectations theory are twofold. First, except for futures markets and the occasional expectations survey, price expectations are rarely documented. Second, results of empirical tests of rational expectations are fundamentally flawed by the subjective input of the researcher. Subjectivity taints the results of the test, first, in the form of model specification and, second, in the form of the identification of the relevant information set. This study addresses each of these shortcomings. First, crude oil price expectations are recovered in the market for reserves by using a standard engineering model commonly used in reserves evaluation. Second, the crude oil futures market is used to estimate an index of information. This index circumvents the need to subjectively identify the elements of the information set, removing a key source of subjective input. The results show that agents involved in the crude oil reserves acquisitions market form expectations of futures prices in a way that does not conform with the adaptive expectations model

  15. Feedback versus open-loop leader/fringe models of the oil supply market

    Pelot, R.P.; Fuller, J.D.

    1991-01-01

    A multiperiod feedback Stackelberg model of exhaustible resources is presented. The results of the feedback model are compared with those from a corresponding open-loop formulation to determine whether the solution to the latter, and much simpler, model produces the same or similar outcomes. An analysis of the world oil market with OPEC as leader dictating the price to a competitive fringe comprised of the remaining oil suppliers demonstrates the features of the model. It permits variable length periods and cumulative extraction cost functions

  16. What if simulation for a Brazilian company regarding marketing budget

    Diogo André PINTO

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The article research is a case study regarding how to design the marketing budget for a small Brazilian company that started the activity one year ago. Taking into account the data that we gather, we decided to use What-if simulation. The case study is a simplified model representation of a company, adjusted according to the data that is released as target for the following year. In practice, the formulation of a scenario allows the construction of a hypothetical world that the analyst can see and navigate.

  17. Fitting partially upgraded oils into pipelines and refinery markets

    Flaherty, G.

    2000-01-01

    The logistics of transporting partially upgraded crudes in feeder and trunk pipeline systems is discussed. Logistic alternatives are evaluated against economic drivers for partial upgrading, and the impact of crude transportation logistics on the quality of crude that reaches refinery gates is assessed. The potential advantages of partial upgrading in the field are reviewed (including reduction of diluent required to meet pipeline density and viscosity specifications, cost and availability of diluent, limitations in diluent transportation infrastructure, increased chemical stability, increased attractiveness to refineries, shortage of refinery coking capacity, higher market value). The pros and cons of various upgrading processes, and the implications of each for producers and refiners are explained. The advantages of moving to large common streams, as opposed to the concept of 'boutique' crudes, are stressed as the surest way for producers to realize the maximum value of partially upgraded crudes

  18. Challenging OPEC: World oil market projections, 1992-2007

    Reinsch, A.E.; Considine, J.E.

    1992-01-01

    A number of alternatives to the scenario of continued OPEC cooperation and adherence to a low price/ high volume market strategy favoured by Saudi Arabia, were examined. The strategy of continued solidarity in support of a stable price path was considered to be ultimately most favorable to all OPEC members, however, there were two uncertainties to contend with: (1) the speed and timing of recovery of both production and product demand within the former Soviet Union, and (2) the outcome of the energy-economy-environment debate in which the international community was engaged. The study showed that OPEC could find itself caught in the vise of rising product prices and weak or declining crude prices, a situation from which it would be extremely difficult, if not impossible, to extricate itself. figs., tabs., refs

  19. Market survey on products from the Tema Oil Refinery carried out as part of the feasibility study on the Tema Oil Refinery expansion project. Export trade information

    Anon.

    1991-10-01

    The Tema Oil Refinery (TOR), which was commissioned in 1963, is a simple hydroskimming plant which processes crude oil into LPG, gasoline, kerosene, gasoil, and fuel oil. It is the only petroleum refinery in Ghana. Over the years some of the equipment in the refinery has deteriorated or become obsolete necessitating major rehabilitation. A feasibility study is investigating the modernization and expansion of the refinery to meet projected market demands until the year 2005. The report presents the results of a market survey done on products from TOR

  20. Oil prices: The role of refinery utilization, futures markets and non-linearities

    Kaufmann, Robert K.; Mann, Michael; Dees, Stephane; Gasteuil, Audrey

    2008-01-01

    We test the hypothesis that real oil prices are determined in part by refinery capacity, non-linearities in supply conditions, and/or expectations and that observed changes in these variables can account for the rise in prices between 2004 and 2006. Results indicate that the refining sector plays an important role in the recent price increase, but not in the way described by many analysts. The relationship is negative such that higher refinery utilization rates reduce crude oil prices. This effect is associated with shifts in the production of heavy and light grades of crude oil and price spreads between them. Non-linear relationships between OPEC capacity and oil prices as well as conditions on the futures markets also account for changes in real oil prices. Together, these factors allow the model to generate a one-step ahead out-of-sample forecast that performs as well as forecasts implied by far-month contracts on the New York Mercantile Exchange and is able to account for much of the $27 rise in crude oil prices between 2004 and 2006. (author)

  1. Oil market structures-strategies and performances of the actors of the international petroleum system

    Djermaine, Rebai

    1999-01-01

    The rises of petroleum prices as revealed by the oil crises of the 1970's are the consequences of a beside market perverse game between artificial factors. The public management and the intervention of public authorities have contributed to the unbalancing of oil markets and to the confusion of the actor's strategies in the international petroleum system. The chronical decay of the petroleum prices indicate the slow and silent come back of the economical forces (laws). The management of an exhaustible asset like petroleum, raises lot of intriguing problems. This work aims at exploring the problems linked with this type of management where the decisions of the profession, of private and public companies and of the governments are closely interfering. The study is largely inspired of the meso-economical approach which consists in examining the markets structure and their determining factors, and the strategies and results of the actors of the world petroleum system. The examination of the structures/strategies/results sequence does not neglect the relations and feedbacks between each of these elements. The economical theory of oligopoly and cartel markets is also used to examine the way how prices are determined in petroleum markets. A critical presentation of the energy models allows to show how it is possible to understand, foresee and control the evolution of these prices and the possible supply/demand equilibrium. The study takes also into consideration the debates and controversies about the 'green tax' and its impact of petroleum supply and demand. (J.S.)

  2. Decoupling the Oil and Gas Prices. Natural Gas Pricing in the Post-Financial Crisis Market

    Kanai, Miharu

    2011-01-01

    This paper looks into natural gas pricing in the post-financial crisis market and, in particular, examines the question whether the oil-linked gas pricing system has outlived its utility as global gas markets mature and converge more rapidly than expected and as large new resources of unconventional gas shift the gas terms-of-trade. Two opposing natural gas pricing systems have coexisted for the last two decades. On the one hand, there is traditional oil-linked pricing, used in pipeline gas imports by Continental European countries and in LNG imports by the countries in Far East. The other is the system led by futures exchanges in deregulated, competitive markets largely in the UK and the US. World gas markets are changing and the basis and mechanisms of price formation are changing with them. There is no reason to expect a revolution in gas pricing, but formulas designed to address the challenges of the 1970's will need to adjust to the realities of the present and expectations for the 21. century. Because such changes will imply a redistribution of costs and benefits, vested shareholders will defend the status quo. But hopefully and ultimately, appropriately regulated markets will assert themselves and shareholders along the entire value chain will have their interests served

  3. Simulations for the learning in the Colombian electric market

    Franco, J.C; Garzon, M.F; Camargo, L.A; Dyner, I; Smith, R; Bedoya, L; Montoya, S; Larsen, Eric R.

    1999-01-01

    In the measure that has been developed the liberalization of the energy markets in Colombia, the companies of the country have been forced to take actions that help them to confront the atmosphere generated to the interior of the industry. The new conditions have impelled to the companies to introduce transformations, including changes in terms of corporate mission, culture of the organization, and support tools to the decision and information systems. In this new developed market, which has implied the expedition of hundred of rules difficult to understand for the current and potential agents, the training of its directive could be a strategy. This can be the case in which the acting of a company of the discovery of new opportunities and in defending of the aggressive of its competitors. Interconnection Electric CORP. (ISA), together with the National University are considering the design of programs of training for electricity trades, using the concept of MICROMUNDOS, with the purpose of qualifying the new generation of directive of the sector. This article describes the underlying rationality of a flight simulator (MICROMUNDO) and the initial specifications of the pattern to advise such programs of training in the market of the electric power in Colombia

  4. Features of the marketing strategy of oil and gas companies in exploration drilling

    Sharf, I; Kamynina, L; Malanina, V

    2014-01-01

    The implementation of national and regional programs for the development of new oil and gas provinces of Eastern Siberia poses the challenge of increasing geological exploration. The current drilling service companies' market structure, as well as the strategic task of search and exploration effectiveness requires qualitatively new approaches for choosing a contractor. The proposed strategy to select a contractor based on comprehensive analysis of certain groups of industrial, financial, infrastructural criteria allows not only to optimize the costs of exploration activities, but also to minimize preventively the risks of a poor geological exploration. The authors' SWOT- analysis of the marketing strategy of ''Gazprom neft'' for choosing a contractor outlined the problem of imperfection of the Russian legislation in the sphere of activities of service companies in the oil and gas sector

  5. Features of the marketing strategy of oil and gas companies in exploration drilling

    Sharf, I.; Malanina, V.; Kamynina, L.

    2014-08-01

    The implementation of national and regional programs for the development of new oil and gas provinces of Eastern Siberia poses the challenge of increasing geological exploration. The current drilling service companies' market structure, as well as the strategic task of search and exploration effectiveness requires qualitatively new approaches for choosing a contractor. The proposed strategy to select a contractor based on comprehensive analysis of certain groups of industrial, financial, infrastructural criteria allows not only to optimize the costs of exploration activities, but also to minimize preventively the risks of a poor geological exploration. The authors' SWOT- analysis of the marketing strategy of "Gazprom neft" for choosing a contractor outlined the problem of imperfection of the Russian legislation in the sphere of activities of service companies in the oil and gas sector.

  6. The age of markets: low oil and gas prices and the new competition for investment capital

    Morse, Edward L.

    1998-01-01

    This paper focuses on Iran's re-entry into the market for upstream capital to obtain the investment required to maintain current production capacity, the creation of a special contract to attract foreign investment, the impact of the US sanctions, and deals resulting from the opening-up of some offshore resources with buy-back contracts. The effects of the downturn in oil markets on Tehran's cash flow as well as foreign contractors' cash flow are reviewed, and the main concerns of the industry over the too short terms of the contract, the refusal of Iran to allow oil companies to book reserves, and the guaranteed rate of return are examined. The re-opening of Kuwait which does allow contractors to book reserves, the threat posed by Saudi Arabia if it reopens its hydrocarbon sector to foreign investment, and the potential difficulty for Iran to meet its expanded production targets are considered

  7. Evaluation of selected physicochemical parameters of extra virgin olive oil commercialized in the Czech market and stored during a period of 5 months

    Richardos Nikolaos Salek

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The scope of this work was to evaluate the development of selected physicochemical parameters (free acidity, peroxide value and specific extinction coefficients in ultraviolet of extra virgin olive oil, commercialized in the Czech market and stored for a time period of 5 months (at 20 ±5 °C. The tested extra virgin olive oil samples were stored under conditions simulating domestic and commercial storage environment, in which the impact of light and headspace volume were also examined. Moreover, all the analyzed samples fell within the established "extra virgin olive oil category", thus proving their legitimacy, authentication and excellent quality. Furthermore, all the monitored physicochemical parameters were affected by the progress of the storage period, the rising volume of headspace (due to more available oxygen in the container and exposition to light, resulting in decreasing quality of the examined extra virgin olive oil samples. In addition, the storage of extra virgin olive oil samples in dark containers reported sufficient resistance to oxidation processes up to a period of 3 months, however, after this period signs of oil quality deterioration were reported. Nevertheless, if exposition to light occurred, accelerated decrease in the quality of the extra virgin olive oil samples was observed.

  8. World oil and gas markets in 2005; Les marches petroliers et gaziers mondiaux en 2005

    NONE

    2006-01-15

    In front of insufficient production capacities, the petroleum and gas spot prices have won historical records in 2005. This paper analyzes this situation using the highlights of this exceptional year and concerning the producing countries (political situation), the oil and gas markets (exchange rates, demand, production capacity), the European quotations of petroleum products (automotive and domestic fuels), and the prices of petroleum products in France. (J.S.)

  9. Panorama 2011: Iraq: making its return to the oil and natural gas markets

    Saniere, A.; Sabathier, J.

    2011-01-01

    Controlling some of the world's largest reserves of oil and natural gas, Iraq boasts major assets in attracting foreign investment. While there is limited risk involved in exploration, the political environment and security needs for personnel and facilities pose omnipresent risks for investors. As a result, the country is facing immense human, political, financial and technological hurdles in its hopes of capturing a leading role in the international hydrocarbons market. (author)

  10. Hedging Effectiveness and Optimal Hedge Ratios: An Analysis of Malaysian Crude Palm Oil Futures Market

    OH, STELLA JIA XIN

    2015-01-01

    This paper deals with the estimation of hedge ratios and hedging effectiveness of crude palm oil futures market in Malaysia for the period from January 2000 to August 2015. To measure hedging performances of optimal hedge ratio, different measures have been employed such as the static hedge ratio estimation models of conventional Ordinary Least Square (OLS) model and Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), while the time-varying model is presented by the Diagonal Vech Multivariate Generalized A...

  11. Dynamic Jump Intensities and Risk Premiums in Crude Oil Futures and Options Markets

    Christoffersen, Peter; Jacobs, Kris; Li, Bingxin

    2016-01-01

    Options on crude oil futures are the most actively traded commodity options. We develop a class of computationally efficient discrete-time jump models that allow for closed-form option valuation, and we use crude oil futures and options data to investigate the economic importance of jumps...... and dynamic jump intensities in these markets. Allowing for jumps is crucial for modeling crude oil futures and futures options, and we find evidence in favor of time-varying jump intensities. During crisis periods, jumps occur more frequently. The properties of the jump processes implied by the option data...... differ from those implied by the futures data, which may be due to improved parameter identification....

  12. Higher prices at Canadian gas pumps: international crude oil prices or local market concentration? An empirical investigation

    Anindya Sen

    2003-01-01

    There is little consensus on whether higher retail gasoline prices in Canada are the result of international crude oil price fluctuations or local market power exercised by large vertically-integrated firms. I find that although both increasing local market concentration and higher average monthly wholesale prices are positively and significantly associated with higher retail prices, wholesale prices are more important than local market concentration. Similarly, crude oil prices are more important than the number of local wholesalers in determining wholesale prices. These results suggest that movements in gasoline prices are largely the result of input price fluctuations rather than local market structure. (author)

  13. The crude oil market mechanism in the light of the 1990-91 price crisis

    Memarian, M.S.

    1992-01-01

    This paper is an attempt to forecast crude oil prices in the 1990-91 crisis. The methodology used is based on the standard supply/demand apparatus, with respect to the possible political circumstances which prevailed during the crisis. The paper begins by modelling crude oil prices. Then the application of the model to the oil market will be discussed. The exclusive findings of this study concern the method of estimating that crude oil prices would grow to a maximum level of $32 per barrel just before the start of the (military) war in January 1991 -and, at the same time, that total excess demand would be around 2.5 million barrels per day, and that, in the case of an injection of about 2.5 mb/d of crude into the market, prices would collapse to their pre-crisis levels of approximately $19/b. It also shows how the effects of political deterioration on prices can be divided into a shift in the slope of the demand curve and a shift in the demand curve itself. (author)

  14. NorthernLights Transmission : bringing competitive cogen energy from the oil sands to west coast markets

    Hogan, M.J.C.

    2005-01-01

    NorthernLights Transmission is an initiative by TransCanada that proposes 2 major high-voltage direct current (HVDC) transmission lines to bring low cost, fossil fuelled and renewable generation from the Fort McMurray area to growing electricity markets in the Pacific Northwest, Nevada, Arizona and California. This presentation demonstrated why oil sands cogeneration, shipped via NorthernLights Transmission, is a very attractive resource for these markets. It was shown that the best generation resources are tied to natural resources such as coal, wind, oil sands cogeneration and hydro. Both the Pacific Northwest and California markets prefer low carbon dioxide generation. The proposed HVDC transmission lines would maximize the use of existing energy infrastructure corridors and rights-of-way where possible. This paper presented details of the proposed Celilo Project and the Inland Project, and noted that both are attractive from a technical and economic perspective. The transmission line for the Celilo project would originate in Fort McMurray and connect highly efficient cogeneration and other developing forms of generation to growing loads in the Pacific Northwest and northern California. The cogeneration plants will supply steam and electricity to northern Alberta's oil sands developments along with surplus electricity for export. tabs., figs

  15. Molecular dynamics simulations of radon accumulation in water and oil

    Pafong, Elvira; Drossel, Barbara [Institut fuer Festkoerperphysik, Technische Universitaet Darmstadt (Germany)

    2016-07-01

    Radon is a radioactive gas that can enter the human body from air or from ground water. Radon can accumulate to levels that considerably rise the risk of lung cancer while it is also known as a a treatment of various ailments, most notably rheumatoid arthritis. The accumulation of radon differs between tissues, with particularly high concentrations in fatty cells. In order to understand the mechanisms responsible for the different solubility of radon in water and fat, we perform molecular dynamics simulations of radon gas at ambient conditions in contact with a bulk material consisting either of water or oil. We evaluate the diffusion coefficient of radon in both media as well as the equilibrium concentration. The crucial point here is to understand the hydrophobic interaction between water and radon as compared to the dispersive interaction between radon and oil. Therefore, we artificially vary the water charges (i.e., the hydrophobicity) as well as the parameters of the van-der-Waals interaction.

  16. Model simulations of the drift and spread of the Exxon Valdez oil spill

    Venkatesh, S.

    1990-01-01

    In this paper the drift and spread of the Exxon-Valdez oil spill that occurred on March 24, 1989 are simulated using a modified version of the Canadian Atmospheric Environment Service oil spill behavior model. The model simulations show that the movement of the oil out of Prince William Sound and beyond is sensitive to the wind/ocean currents taken into account is three to four times that with either wind or ocean currents only. While 12-day drift of the spill containing the higher concentrations of oil parcels is in very good agreement with observations, model simulations show the presence of oil further to the south, albeit in lower concentrations. The lateral spread of the oil is also very well simulated by the model

  17. Comparison of historically simulated VaR: Evidence from oil prices

    Costello, Alexandra [Seminole Canada Energy, Calgary, AB (Canada); Asem, Ebenezer; Gardner, Eldon [Faculty of Management, University of Lethbridge, Lethbridge, AB (Canada)

    2008-09-15

    Cabedo and Moya [Cabedo, J.D., Moya, I., 2003. Estimating oil price 'Value at Risk' using the historical simulation approach. Energy Economics 25, 239-253] find that ARMA with historical simulation delivers VaR forecasts that are superior to those from GARCH. We compare the ARMA with historical simulation to the semi-parametric GARCH model proposed by Barone-Adesi et al. [Barone-Adesi, G., Giannopoulos, K., Vosper, L., 1999. VaR without correlations for portfolios of derivative securities. Journal of Futures Markets 19 (5), 583-602]. The results suggest that the semi-parametric GARCH model generates VaR forecasts that are superior to the VaR forecasts from the ARMA with historical simulation. This is due to the fact that GARCH captures volatility clustering. Our findings suggest that Cabedo and Moya's conclusion is mainly driven by the normal distributional assumption imposed on the future risk structure in the GARCH model. (author)

  18. Development of educational Web-based simulator for the electricity spot market in Korea

    Lee, J.W.; Yang, K.M.; Jeong, Y.W.; Park, J.B.; Shin, J.R.

    2006-01-01

    Market simulation approaches are used frequently by electric utilities to resolve the spot market-related problems that are often encountered in competitive electricity markets. A well constructed market simulator offers the possibility to foresee the effect of new market structures or rules before they are actually implemented. This paper presented a newly developed educational market simulator that simulates the power exchange methods and market rules of the Two Way Bidding Pool (TWBP) in Korea. It allows users to set information related with market and market entities. In particular, it is an educational tool that enables interaction between lecturers and students via Web-based programs. Students can learn the effectiveness of an electricity spot market by bidding and examining the market with lecturers. Measures have been taken to address the problem of multi-users trying to manage the complex data sets. The developed application program is composed of 3 tiers where the middle tier is logically divided into 2 kinds of application programs. The divided application programs are interconnected by using the Web-service based on Extended Markup Technology and Hyper Text Transfer Protocol which make the distributed computing technology possible. Unlike most existing educational simulators, this one has the advantage of allowing students to make bids just like in a real market, thus showing them how the real electricity market runs and how market participants make their revenues. 10 refs., 4 tabs., 13 figs

  19. Development of educational Web-based simulator for the electricity spot market in Korea

    Lee, J.W.; Yang, K.M.; Jeong, Y.W.; Park, J.B.; Shin, J.R. [Konkuk Univ., Seoul (Korea, Republic of). Dept. of Electrical Engineering

    2006-07-01

    Market simulation approaches are used frequently by electric utilities to resolve the spot market-related problems that are often encountered in competitive electricity markets. A well constructed market simulator offers the possibility to foresee the effect of new market structures or rules before they are actually implemented. This paper presented a newly developed educational market simulator that simulates the power exchange methods and market rules of the Two Way Bidding Pool (TWBP) in Korea. It allows users to set information related with market and market entities. In particular, it is an educational tool that enables interaction between lecturers and students via Web-based programs. Students can learn the effectiveness of an electricity spot market by bidding and examining the market with lecturers. Measures have been taken to address the problem of multi-users trying to manage the complex data sets. The developed application program is composed of 3 tiers where the middle tier is logically divided into 2 kinds of application programs. The divided application programs are interconnected by using the Web-service based on Extended Markup Technology and Hyper Text Transfer Protocol which make the distributed computing technology possible. Unlike most existing educational simulators, this one has the advantage of allowing students to make bids just like in a real market, thus showing them how the real electricity market runs and how market participants make their revenues. 10 refs., 4 tabs., 13 figs.

  20. The future world oil market: state of nature or social contract?

    Noel, P

    1999-10-01

    Mary Ann Tetreault develops a very interesting interpretation of the emerging new relationship between international oil companies and Middle East producing countries. The original intellectual tools she handles-concepts drawn from the European political philosophy tradition-allow her to argue as follows: (1) the oil market left to itself- whether participants are states or firms-behaves like a Hobbesian ''state of nature'' often resulting in a situation damaging to each participant; (2) to deal with it, the international oil community has historically relied on different types of organisations, but these social contracts or ''republics'' were inherently unstable since they rested on too narrowly defined interests; (3) the rationale behind the possible return of oil companies to the richest Middle East countries is the search for new ''international oil republics'' able to ''offer greater security and higher profits for all the good republicans among them''. (author)

  1. Opportunities for biomass-derived 'bio-oil' in European heat and power markets

    Brammer, J.G.; Lauer, M.; Bridgwater, A.V.

    2006-01-01

    Bio-oil (biomass fast pyrolysis) systems for heat, power or CHP production are nearing demonstration status. Their commercial attractiveness will depend on many factors, and will vary with the application, the scale, and importantly the location and its associated economic and logistical factors. The objective of this work, carried out as part of an EC-ALTENER project, was to evaluate the opportunities for bio-oil in the heat and power markets of Europe. Bio-oil applications were compared with conventional (fossil) alternatives for the same heat and power duty. The evaluation was carried out by a quantitative assessment of the economic competitiveness of standard applications in 14 European countries. Location-specific data were collected, and combined with technology-specific data obtained from earlier work. A competitiveness factor (c F ) was derived which represents the total annual cost of a conventional alternative relative to a bio-oil application. The results showed a wide variation across Europe. A total of six countries had at least one bio-oil application which was economically competitive. Heat-only applications were found to be the most economically competitive, followed by CHP applications, with electricity-only applications only very rarely competitive. For a given technology, the larger the scale, the better the competitiveness

  2. Opportunities for biomass-derived 'bio-oil' in European heat and power markets

    Brammer, J.G.; Bridgwater, A.V.

    2006-01-01

    Bio-oil (biomass fast pyrolysis) systems for heat, power or CHP production are nearing demonstration status. Their commercial attractiveness will depend on many factors, and will vary with the application, the scale, and importantly the location and its associated economic and logistical factors. The objective of this work, carried out as part of an EC-ALTENER project, was to evaluate the opportunities for bio-oil in the heat and power markets of Europe. Bio-oil applications were compared with conventional (fossil) alternatives for the same heat and power duty. The evaluation was carried out by a quantitative assessment of the economic competitiveness of standard applications in 14 European countries. Location-specific data were collected, and combined with technology-specific data obtained from earlier work. A competitiveness factor (c F ) was derived which represents the total annual cost of a conventional alternative relative to a bio-oil application. The results showed a wide variation across Europe. A total of six countries had at least one bio-oil application which was economically competitive. Heat-only applications were found to be the most economically competitive, followed by CHP applications, with electricity-only applications only very rarely competitive. For a given technology, the larger the scale, the better the competitiveness. (author)

  3. Breaking the bottleneck : how best can we bring oil sands products to demanding markets

    Prince, D.

    2006-01-01

    Alberta-based Altex Energy Ltd. is pursuing the development of an innovative heavy oil/bitumen pipeline from Alberta to the United States Gulf Coast (USGC). This energy infrastructure development company is led by a proven management team that developed and constructed the 3,700 km long Alliance Pipeline system. This presentation included a map of the $3.7 billion dollar Alliance Pipeline that identified the mainline compressor stations, lateral compressor stations, area offices and head offices. It was noted that oilsands will represent the most significant resource plays for many years. A graph indicating bitumen supply forecasts from 2005 to 2020 suggests that bitumen production will have exponential growth over the foreseeable future. Labor, materials and infrastructure limitations will create barriers to oilsands growth, as will uncertain market access. For that reason, assured pipeline capacity is needed along with an infrastructure to refineries and a favourable competitive balance for Canadian producers. The presentation addressed issues regarding marketing choices and the challenges of upgrading in Alberta. The economics of diluting heavy oil was also discussed along with industry response to the diluent challenge. Altex's proposed solution of a new direct greenfield pipeline from Alberta to the USGC would reach the largest refinery market in North America as well as the largest heavy oil/bitumen consuming regions. The Altex solution would be complementary to heavy oil/bitumen in Alberta. The proprietary pipeline technology permits alternative diluents, eliminating much of the diluent penalty. It mitigates the risks of upgrading in Alberta and competes on a cost basis with other expansion alternatives. The Altex pipeline system eliminates the need for costly condensate diluent, but accepts all current diluents. It transports up to 90 per cent more bitumen than clean diluted bitumen in a conventional pipeline. It can also transport as much as 175 per cent

  4. Croatian Oil and Gas Market - an Area of Contact Between Europe and Asia

    Dragicevic, T.

    2007-01-01

    Croatia - a regional energy hub, a catchword that has been adopted even by politicians, denotes a combination of favourable geographical position and use of this advantage as a mediator in providing transmission services for natural gas, oil and electricity between Europe and Asia, as well as between the north and the south of the European continent. However, although the idea of regional energy hub has gained support, it is still at a turning point and may take three different directions: 1. If timely activities are undertaken for the implementation of the LNG terminal project and connecting of the JANAF oil pipeline with PEOP and/or Druzba Adria, the realisation of energy hub is possible; 2. In case of further delays in implementing the LNG terminal project and Druzba Adria oil pipeline, we will lose the opportunity for participation in major European projects for twenty years at least; 3. A possible solution may be sought in takeover of individual energy activities by large foreign energy companies that show interest for the Croatian energy market. This last option is very likely due to considerable interest by Central and East European energy companies. In the eve of the expected EU accession, any resistance to takeover may be qualified as economic nationalism. Only large, powerful nations enjoy the privilege that their resistance to foreign domination is qualified as economic patriotism. Since the year 2000 when preparations for INA's privatization began, there were indications of interest and aspiration of the Russian oil companies to ensure presence in the Croatian market. In the meantime the Russian companies evolved their strategies of penetration on the flanks of the European market in the form of North Stream pipeline over the Baltic Sea and South Stream through the Black Sea and Turkey. So, the Republic of Croatia is on the crossroad: it can take a secondary role in other players' strategy, or it can pursue its own strategy based on growth and security

  5. Agent-based simulation of a financial market

    Raberto, Marco; Cincotti, Silvano; Focardi, Sergio M.; Marchesi, Michele

    2001-10-01

    This paper introduces an agent-based artificial financial market in which heterogeneous agents trade one single asset through a realistic trading mechanism for price formation. Agents are initially endowed with a finite amount of cash and a given finite portfolio of assets. There is no money-creation process; the total available cash is conserved in time. In each period, agents make random buy and sell decisions that are constrained by available resources, subject to clustering, and dependent on the volatility of previous periods. The model proposed herein is able to reproduce the leptokurtic shape of the probability density of log price returns and the clustering of volatility. Implemented using extreme programming and object-oriented technology, the simulator is a flexible computational experimental facility that can find applications in both academic and industrial research projects.

  6. Simulations of the development in the Nordic power market

    2002-01-01

    This report examines the development of prices, production, trade and CO 2 emission in the power markets in Scandinavia and Germany up to 2012. Simulations of a reference course indicate relatively strong growth of the power consumption. In combination with a modest development of the capacity in the short run, the growing consumption causes the prices to rise. Little by little it becomes profitable to build new gas power in Norway and Germany and a common quota market for CO 2 emissions makes it possible. Sweden and Finland will have an increasing power deficiency. The results vary in step with the variation in water supply but the adaptation is largely taken in the Nordic countries: in dry years, consumption is considerably reduced while the import from Germany increases modestly. Increasing the CO 2 tax with 150 per cent increases the prices and lowers the CO 2 emission, but not enough to comply with the Kyoto agreement. The impact of a new nuclear power plant in Finland will be less gas power and reduced emission of CO 2 in Norway. Finally, the calculations show that a scenario for which the climate goals are to be fulfilled nationally requires strong measures in the form of retrenchment on the consumer side, and the development of new capacity based on renewable energy sources in addition to scrapping and converting coal power plants

  7. Achieving emissions reduction through oil sands cogeneration in Alberta’s deregulated electricity market

    Ouellette, A.; Rowe, A.; Sopinka, A.; Wild, P.

    2014-01-01

    The province of Alberta faces the challenge of balancing its commitment to reduce CO 2 emissions and the growth of its energy-intensive oil sands industry. Currently, these operations rely on the Alberta electricity system and on-site generation to satisfy their steam and electricity requirements. Most of the on-site generation units produce steam and electricity through the process of cogeneration. It is unclear to what extent new and existing operations will continue to develop cogeneration units or rely on electricity from the Alberta grid to meet their energy requirements in the near future. This study explores the potential for reductions in fuel usage and CO 2 emissions by increasing the penetration of oil sands cogeneration in the provincial generation mixture. EnergyPLAN is used to perform scenario analyses on Alberta’s electricity system in 2030 with a focus on transmission conditions to the oil sands region. The results show that up to 15–24% of CO 2 reductions prescribed by the 2008 Alberta Climate Strategy are possible. Furthermore, the policy implications of these scenarios within a deregulated market are discussed. - Highlights: • High levels of cogeneration in the oil sands significantly reduce the total fuel usage and CO 2 emissions for the province. • Beyond a certain threshold, the emissions reduction intensity per MW of cogeneration installed is reduced. • The cost difference between scenarios is not significant. • Policy which gives an advantage to a particular technology goes against the ideology of a deregulated market. • Alberta will need significant improvements to its transmission system in order for oil sands cogeneration to persist

  8. An agent-based simulation of power generation company behavior in electricity markets under different market-clearing mechanisms

    Aliabadi, Danial Esmaeili; Kaya, Murat; Şahin, Güvenç

    2017-01-01

    Deregulated electricity markets are expected to provide affordable electricity for consumers through promoting competition. Yet, the results do not always fulfill the expectations. The regulator's market-clearing mechanism is a strategic choice that may affect the level of competition in the market. We conceive of the market-clearing mechanism as composed of two components: pricing rules and rationing policies. We investigate the strategic behavior of power generation companies under different market-clearing mechanisms using an agent-based simulation model which integrates a game-theoretical understanding of the auction mechanism in the electricity market and generation companies' learning mechanism. Results of our simulation experiments are presented using various case studies representing different market settings. The market in simulations is observed to converge to a Nash equilibrium of the stage game or to a similar state under most parameter combinations. Compared to pay-as-bid pricing, bid prices are closer to marginal costs on average under uniform pricing while GenCos' total profit is also higher. The random rationing policy of the ISO turns out to be more successful in achieving lower bid prices and lower GenCo profits. In minimizing GenCos' total profit, a combination of pay-as-bid pricing rule and random rationing policy is observed to be the most promising. - Highlights: • An agent-based simulation of generation company behavior in electricity markets is developed. • Learning dynamics of companies is modeled with an extended Q-learning algorithm. • Different market clearing mechanisms of the regulator are compared. • Convergence to Nash equilibria is analyzed under different cases. • The level of competition in the market is studied.

  9. Oil prices, stock markets and portfolio investment. Evidence from sector analysis in Europe over the last decade

    Hedi Arouri, Mohamed El; Khuong Nguyen, Duc

    2010-01-01

    This article extends the understanding of oil-stock market relationships over the last turbulent decade. Unlike previous empirical investigations, which have largely focused on broad-based market indices (national and/or regional indices), we examine short-term linkages in the aggregate as well as sector by sector levels in Europe using different econometric techniques. Our main findings suggest that the reactions of stock returns to oil price changes differ greatly depending on the activity sector. In the out-of-sample analysis we show that introducing oil asset into a diversified portfolio of stocks allows to significantly improve its risk-return characteristics. (author)

  10. 75 FR 70738 - Gulf Oil Limited Partnership; Supplemental Notice That Initial Market-Based Rate Filing Includes...

    2010-11-18

    ... Limited Partnership; Supplemental Notice That Initial Market-Based Rate Filing Includes Request for... proceeding of Gulf Oil Limited Partnership's application for market-based rate authority, with an... CFR Part 34, of future issuances of securities and assumptions of liability. Any person desiring to...

  11. Simulation study of huff-n-puff air injection for enhanced oil recovery in shale oil reservoirs

    Hu Jia

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper is the first attempt to evaluate huff-n-puff air injection in a shale oil reservoir using a simulation approach. Recovery mechanisms and physical processes of huff-n-puff air injection in a shale oil reservoir are investigated through investigating production performance, thermal behavior, reservoir pressure and fluid saturation features. Air flooding is used as the basic case for a comparative study. The simulation study suggests that thermal drive is the main recovery mechanism for huff-n-puff air injection in the shale oil reservoir, but not for simple air flooding. The synergic recovery mechanism of air flooding in conventional light oil reservoirs can be replicated in shale oil reservoirs by using air huff-n-puff injection strategy. Reducing huff-n-puff time is better for performing the synergic recovery mechanism of air injection. O2 diffusion plays an important role in huff-n-puff air injection in shale oil reservoirs. Pressure transmissibility as well as reservoir pressure maintenance ability in huff-n-puff air injection is more pronounced than the simple air flooding after primary depletion stage. No obvious gas override is exhibited in both air flooding and air huff-n-puff injection scenarios in shale reservoirs. Huff-n-puff air injection has great potential to develop shale oil reservoirs. The results from this work may stimulate further investigations.

  12. Analysis of crude oil markets with improved multiscale weighted permutation entropy

    Niu, Hongli; Wang, Jun; Liu, Cheng

    2018-03-01

    Entropy measures are recently extensively used to study the complexity property in nonlinear systems. Weighted permutation entropy (WPE) can overcome the ignorance of the amplitude information of time series compared with PE and shows a distinctive ability to extract complexity information from data having abrupt changes in magnitude. Improved (or sometimes called composite) multi-scale (MS) method possesses the advantage of reducing errors and improving the accuracy when applied to evaluate multiscale entropy values of not enough long time series. In this paper, we combine the merits of WPE and improved MS to propose the improved multiscale weighted permutation entropy (IMWPE) method for complexity investigation of a time series. Then it is validated effective through artificial data: white noise and 1 / f noise, and real market data of Brent and Daqing crude oil. Meanwhile, the complexity properties of crude oil markets are explored respectively of return series, volatility series with multiple exponents and EEMD-produced intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) which represent different frequency components of return series. Moreover, the instantaneous amplitude and frequency of Brent and Daqing crude oil are analyzed by the Hilbert transform utilized to each IMF.

  13. The effects of crude oil shocks on stock market shifts behaviour A regime switching approach

    Aloui, Chaker; Jammazi, Rania [International Finance Group-Tunisia, Faculty of Management and Economic Sciences of Tunis, Boulevard du 7 novembre, El Manar University, B.P. 248, C.P. 2092, Tunis Cedex (Tunisia)

    2009-09-15

    In this paper we develop a two regime Markov-switching EGARCH model introduced by Henry [Henry, O., 2009. Regime switching in the relationship between equity returns and short-term interest rates. Journal of Banking and Finance 33, 405-414.] to examine the relationship between crude oil shocks and stock markets. An application to stock markets of UK, France and Japan over the sample period January 1989 to December 2007 illustrates plausible results. We detect two episodes of series behaviour one relative to low mean/high variance regime and the other to high mean/low variance regime. Furthermore, there is evidence that common recessions coincide with the low mean/high variance regime. In addition, we allow both real stock returns and probability of transitions from one regime to another to depend on the net oil price increase variable. The findings show that rises in oil price has a significant role in determining both the volatility of stock returns and the probability of transition across regimes. (author)

  14. The effects of crude oil shocks on stock market shifts behaviour A regime switching approach

    Aloui, Chaker; Jammazi, Rania

    2009-01-01

    In this paper we develop a two regime Markov-switching EGARCH model introduced by Henry [Henry, O., 2009. Regime switching in the relationship between equity returns and short-term interest rates. Journal of Banking and Finance 33, 405-414.] to examine the relationship between crude oil shocks and stock markets. An application to stock markets of UK, France and Japan over the sample period January 1989 to December 2007 illustrates plausible results. We detect two episodes of series behaviour one relative to low mean/high variance regime and the other to high mean/low variance regime. Furthermore, there is evidence that common recessions coincide with the low mean/high variance regime. In addition, we allow both real stock returns and probability of transitions from one regime to another to depend on the net oil price increase variable. The findings show that rises in oil price has a significant role in determining both the volatility of stock returns and the probability of transition across regimes. (author)

  15. Technological trends and market perspectives for production of microbial oils rich in omega-3.

    Finco, Ana Maria de Oliveira; Mamani, Luis Daniel Goyzueta; Carvalho, Júlio Cesar de; de Melo Pereira, Gilberto Vinícius; Thomaz-Soccol, Vanete; Soccol, Carlos Ricardo

    2017-08-01

    In recent years, foods that contain omega-3 lipids have emerged as important promoters of human health. These lipids are essential for the functional development of the brain and retina, and reduction of the risk of cardiovascular and Alzheimer's diseases. The global market for omega-3 production, particularly docosahexaenoic acid (DHA), saw a large expansion in the last decade due to the increasing use of this lipid as an important component of infant food formulae and supplements. The production of omega-3 lipids from fish and vegetable oil sources has some drawbacks, such as complex purification procedures, unwanted contamination by marine pollutants, reduction or even extinction of several species of fish, and aspects related to sustainability. A promising alternative system for the production of omega-3 lipids is from microbial metabolism of yeast, fungi, or microalgae. The aim of this review is to discuss the various omega-3 sources in the context of the global demand and market potential for these bioactive compounds. To summarize, it is clear that fish and vegetable oil sources will not be sufficient to meet the future needs of the world population. The biotechnological production of single-cell oil comes as a sustainable alternative capable of supplementing the global demand for omega-3, causing less environmental impact.

  16. Analysis of Saudi Arabia's behavior within OPEC and the world oil market

    Alkhathlan, Khalid; Gately, Dermot; Javid, Muhammad

    2014-01-01

    We analyze oil export behavior by Saudi Arabia and the Rest of OPEC since 1973. In the literature there has been a wide range of estimates of their correlation: from positive, to zero, to negative. We find that the correlation has varied over time, from moderately high (0.7) in normal periods, to negative during each of five interruptions; the average correlation has been 0.19. Saudi Arabia's oil market behavior depends upon circumstances, but its primary goal is the stability of OPEC and the world oil market. It will coordinate export reductions with the Rest of OPEC when faced with declining demand, but it will increase exports when faced with interruptions elsewhere in OPEC. Allowing for such differences provides evidence of intelligent, context-dependent consistency. But ignoring context – by wrongly assuming the same Saudi response in Normal periods and Interruptions – can lead to a conclusion of Saudi “inconsistency” because the difference in the responses has been obscured

  17. Dynamic impacts of high oil prices on the bioethanol and feedstock markets

    Cha, Kyung Soo; Bae, Jeong Hwan

    2011-01-01

    This study investigates the impacts of high international oil prices on the bioethanol and corn markets in the US. Between 2007 and 2008, the prices of major grain crops had increased sharply, reflecting the rise in international oil prices. These dual price shocks had caused substantial harm to the global economy. Employing a structural vector auto-regression model (SVAR), we analyze how increases in international oil prices could impact the prices of and demand for corn, which is used as a major bioethanol feedstock in the US. The results indicate that an increase in the oil price would increase bioethanol demand for corn and corn prices in the short run and that corn prices would stabilize in the long run as corn exports and feedstock demand for corn decline. Consequently, policies supporting biofuels should encourage the use of bioethanol co-products for feed and the development of marginal land to mitigate increases in the feedstock price. - Research highlights: → World economy experienced 'dual shocks', which were caused by skyrocketed oil prices and grain prices between 2007 and 2008. → Sharp increases in ethanol production in response to high oil prices were considered as a major driving force to 'ag-flation' in the United States. → Applying a time series econometric tool, called the 'structural vector auto-regression model', we evaluated relationship between ethanol production and corn prices. → The result shows that ethanol production affects corn prices in the short run, while corn prices are lowered as other corn demands (feed for livestock or export demand) decline in the long run.

  18. Palm Oil Price, Exchange Rate, and Stock Market: A Wavelet Analysis on the Malaysian Market

    Buerhan Saiti

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available The study investigates causality between palm oil price, exchange rate and the Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (KLCI based on the theory of wavelets on the basis of monthly data from the period January 1990 - December 2012. This methodology enables us to identify that the causality between these economic variables at different time intervals. This wavelet decomposition also provides additional evidence to the “reverse causality” theory. We found that the wavelet cross-correlations between stock price and exchange rate skewed to the right at all levels with negative significant correlations which implies that the exchange rate leads the stock price. In the case of stock and commodity prices, there is no significant wavelet-crosscorrelation at first four levels. However, the wavelet cross-correlations skewed to the left at level 5 which implies that the stock price leads commodity price in the long-run. Finally, there is no significant wavelet cross-correlations at all levels as long as we concern between commodity price and exchange rate. It implies that there is no lead-lag relationship between commodity price and exchange rate.

  19. The Parallel Market for Foreign Exchange in an Oil Exporting Economy; The Case of Iran, 1978-1990

    Adnan Mazarei

    1995-01-01

    This paper provides a model for the determination of the parallel market exchange rate premium in a country where oil export earnings accrue directly to the government, and foreign exchange is centrally allocated for the importation of specific goods. Next, it studies the parallel market for foreign exchange In the Islamic Republic of Iran during the period 1978-90. The paper then examines the various time series properties of parallel market exchange rate in Iran, and the evidence of the rol...

  20. Is WTI crude oil market becoming weakly efficient over time? New evidence from multiscale analysis based on detrended fluctuation analysis

    Wang, Yudong; Liu, Li

    2010-01-01

    This paper extends the work in Tabak and Cajueiro (Are the crude oil markets becoming weakly efficient over time, Energy Economics 29 (2007) 28-36) and Alvarez-Ramirez et al. (Short-term predictability of crude oil markets: a detrended fluctuation analysis approach, Energy Economics 30 (2008) 2645-2656). In this paper, we test for the efficiency of WTI crude oil market through observing the dynamic of local Hurst exponents employing the method of rolling window based on multiscale detrended fluctuation analysis. Empirical results show that short-term, medium-term and long-term behaviors were generally turning into efficient behavior over time. However, in this way, the results also show that the market did not evolve along stable conditions for long times. Multiscale analysis is also implemented based on multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis. We found that the small fluctuations of WTI crude oil market were persistent; however, the large fluctuations had high instability, both in the short- and long-terms. Our discussion is also extended by incorporating arguments from the crude oil market structure for explaining the different correlation dynamics. (author)

  1. Economic and political power relationships and price formation in strategic materials markets. The example of oil

    Mortazavi, M.

    1998-01-01

    The more and more generalized substitution of coordination trading mechanisms by administrated regulation forms on the world petroleum scene has led some authors to sustain the idea that oil prices can be durably fixed on a competitive market, like any ordinary good. By analysing the limits of the Hotellinian optimization approach, this work tries to demonstrate that: conformably to a theoretical trend initiated by the works of P.H. Frankel, integration and concentration are two elements indispensable to the proper operation of the petroleum domain. A non-organized market leads to a prices fight and to the reinforcement of the main actors. It demonstrates also that the interdependence between economy and politics has always been an important factor in prices making. The history of petroleum political economics has been and remains largely connected to the power relations established between governments for the share of profits. This work stresses on the necessity of the implementation by the main actors of a back-to-integration and cooperation strategy to stabilize the market and the prices and to make possible the implementation of energy mastery and environment protection policies. On the other hand, the examination of the present day situation, characterized by a very unequal share of profits and by an upstream weakness of prices and investments, reveals the existence of tension factors susceptible to start up a new oil crisis in the coming years. (J.S.)

  2. Portfolio Value at Risk Estimate for Crude Oil Markets: A Multivariate Wavelet Denoising Approach

    Kin Keung Lai

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available In the increasingly globalized economy these days, the major crude oil markets worldwide are seeing higher level of integration, which results in higher level of dependency and transmission of risks among different markets. Thus the risk of the typical multi-asset crude oil portfolio is influenced by dynamic correlation among different assets, which has both normal and transient behaviors. This paper proposes a novel multivariate wavelet denoising based approach for estimating Portfolio Value at Risk (PVaR. The multivariate wavelet analysis is introduced to analyze the multi-scale behaviors of the correlation among different markets and the portfolio volatility behavior in the higher dimensional time scale domain. The heterogeneous data and noise behavior are addressed in the proposed multi-scale denoising based PVaR estimation algorithm, which also incorporatesthe mainstream time series to address other well known data features such as autocorrelation and volatility clustering. Empirical studies suggest that the proposed algorithm outperforms the benchmark ExponentialWeighted Moving Average (EWMA and DCC-GARCH model, in terms of conventional performance evaluation criteria for the model reliability.

  3. Multigrid Methods for Fully Implicit Oil Reservoir Simulation

    Molenaar, J.

    1996-01-01

    In this paper we consider the simultaneous flow of oil and water in reservoir rock. This displacement process is modeled by two basic equations: the material balance or continuity equations and the equation of motion (Darcy's law). For the numerical solution of this system of nonlinear partial differential equations there are two approaches: the fully implicit or simultaneous solution method and the sequential solution method. In the sequential solution method the system of partial differential equations is manipulated to give an elliptic pressure equation and a hyperbolic (or parabolic) saturation equation. In the IMPES approach the pressure equation is first solved, using values for the saturation from the previous time level. Next the saturations are updated by some explicit time stepping method; this implies that the method is only conditionally stable. For the numerical solution of the linear, elliptic pressure equation multigrid methods have become an accepted technique. On the other hand, the fully implicit method is unconditionally stable, but it has the disadvantage that in every time step a large system of nonlinear algebraic equations has to be solved. The most time-consuming part of any fully implicit reservoir simulator is the solution of this large system of equations. Usually this is done by Newton's method. The resulting systems of linear equations are then either solved by a direct method or by some conjugate gradient type method. In this paper we consider the possibility of applying multigrid methods for the iterative solution of the systems of nonlinear equations. There are two ways of using multigrid for this job: either we use a nonlinear multigrid method or we use a linear multigrid method to deal with the linear systems that arise in Newton's method. So far only a few authors have reported on the use of multigrid methods for fully implicit simulations. Two-level FAS algorithm is presented for the black-oil equations, and linear multigrid for

  4. A new method to determine oxidative stability of vegetable fats and oils at simulated frying temperature

    Gertz Christian

    2001-01-01

    Full Text Available A new procedure at simulated frying conditions in our laboratory was developed to monitor frying stability of fats and oils. Water-conditioned silica was prepared and added to the fresh vegetable oil, which was heated for two hours at 170°C. The oil stability at frying temperature was then evaluated by determining the amount of formed dimeric triglycerides The results obtained showed that the stability of the vegetable oils at frying temperature could not be explained by the fatty acid composition alone. Corn oil was observed to be more stable than soybean oil, and rapeseed oil was better than olive oil. It was also observed that crude, non-refined oils were found to have a better heat stability than refin-ed oils. To estimate the effectiveness of synthetic and naturally occurring antioxidants, namely various tocopherols, tocopherol acetate and phytosterol fractions, phenolic compounds like quercetin, oryzanol, ferulic acid, gallates, BHT, BHA and other compounds like ascorbic acid 6-palmitate and squalene were added to refined sunflower and rape seed oil, and their oxidative stability at elevated temperature (OSET values determined. Both linoleic and oleic rich oils gave comparable results for the activity of the various compounds. alpha-tocopherol, tocopherol esters and BHA had low effects on oil stability at frying temperature, while ascorbyl palmitate and some phytosterol fractions were found to have the most stabilizing activity under frying conditions.

  5. Alternatives to conventional crude oil. When, how quickly, and market driven?

    Kaufmann, Robert K.; Shiers, Laura D.

    2008-01-01

    We examine the effect of uncertainty concerning remaining supplies of conventional crude oil and its production path on: the date alternative fuels will be needed, the quantity of alternative fuels needed, and how this uncertainty affects firms' willingness to provide alternatives in a timely fashion. Despite large uncertainties about the quantity of oil that remains and its production path, the start date for replacements is likely to fall within a twenty-two year period that is narrower and earlier than previous estimates. The twenty-two year window represents considerable uncertainty about the date of the peak and this uncertainty creates an asymmetry in the strategy that maximizes the welfare of firms relative to total social welfare, which works against the market's ability to generate a smooth transition from oil to alternative fuels. The timeliness of this transition is critical - the production paths generated here suggest that 10 million barrels per day or more of alternative fuels will be needed within a decade of the peak in production of conventional crude oil. (author)

  6. The Transition of the Domestic Oil Market and the Countermeasures in 2001

    Kim, Myeong Hwan [LG Caltex Oil, Seoul (Korea)

    2001-02-01

    When the Government establishes and executes all the policies related to the oil industry, it is difficult to satisfy the interest of all the related parties (persons) 100%, but it is important to definite the principle that the basis of oil policy is 'the Stable Demand/Supply of Oil' and to maintain and improve the systematic program continuously. It should be also to apply the different tax rate to crude oil and petroleum productions and optimize the difference. Besides, the direction of policy is should be determined in order to perform the verification of optimum by self-controlling price determination based on production cost, the improvement of a label registered system to control additional cost, and the introduction and the activation of e-commerce to supplement the existing circulation market. In the point of view that domestic refinery companies will be to compete with foreign major companies in earnest before long, it is necessary to make sustained efforts in order to improve the domestic/foreign competitiveness in the many-sided of management and it should be to continuously promote the diversification of a business area and the activation of the incident business, proceeding as one of the efforts.

  7. European gas markets and Russian LNG. Prospects for the development of European gas markets and model simulations of possible new LNG supplies from year 2000

    Eldegard, Tom [Foundation for Research in Economics and Business Administration, Bergen (Norway)

    1996-07-01

    The study aims at clarifying the framework for possible LNG exports from Northern Russia and focuses on the European natural gas markets. The first stage provides general background information on the market structure and related topics. In the second stage this information is used to develop a formal market model and subject it to simulations with various assumptions of the future gas supply. The model is described and results from simulations are given. In the first stage facts from the history of the European natural gas market are outlined. Underlying conditions for the development of natural gas markets in Europe are addressed. The EU has been promoting trade liberalisation in the energy sector but most counties resist freer gas trade across the boarders. New infrastructure development for natural gas are either underway or planned. Some important projects are mentioned. Gas in a global perspective is discussed. The cost structure of the LNG chain is mentioned and an overview of existing LNG export capacities world-wide and major reception terminals in Europe and the USA is given. The second stage employs a scenario analysis to evaluate the economic effects of hypothetical LNG deliveries from Northern Russia. The model is developed for the analysis of West European natural gas markets and designed to allow users to create a structural system of interconnected producers and market regions. Basic assumptions for the evolution of natural gas markets till 2005 is developed and base case scenarios calculated for the years 2000 and 2005 and used as a point of reference for the alternative scenarios considered. According to the analysis the introduction of a new LNG supplier in the European gas market will inflict a substantial loss upon all the existing producers. The primary keys to this result are the assumptions made for gas demand and supply capacity. The LNG alternative will hardly be approved for purely economic reasons as long as the Russians maintain

  8. European gas markets and Russian LNG. Prospects for the development of European gas markets and model simulations of possible new LNG supplies from year 2000

    Eldegard, Tom

    1996-01-01

    The study aims at clarifying the framework for possible LNG exports from Northern Russia and focuses on the European natural gas markets. The first stage provides general background information on the market structure and related topics. In the second stage this information is used to develop a formal market model and subject it to simulations with various assumptions of the future gas supply. The model is described and results from simulations are given. In the first stage facts from the history of the European natural gas market are outlined. Underlying conditions for the development of natural gas markets in Europe are addressed. The EU has been promoting trade liberalisation in the energy sector but most counties resist freer gas trade across the boarders. New infrastructure development for natural gas are either underway or planned. Some important projects are mentioned. Gas in a global perspective is discussed. The cost structure of the LNG chain is mentioned and an overview of existing LNG export capacities world-wide and major reception terminals in Europe and the USA is given. The second stage employs a scenario analysis to evaluate the economic effects of hypothetical LNG deliveries from Northern Russia. The model is developed for the analysis of West European natural gas markets and designed to allow users to create a structural system of interconnected producers and market regions. Basic assumptions for the evolution of natural gas markets till 2005 is developed and base case scenarios calculated for the years 2000 and 2005 and used as a point of reference for the alternative scenarios considered. According to the analysis the introduction of a new LNG supplier in the European gas market will inflict a substantial loss upon all the existing producers. The primary keys to this result are the assumptions made for gas demand and supply capacity. The LNG alternative will hardly be approved for purely economic reasons as long as the Russians maintain

  9. Electronic trading system and returns volatility in the oil futures market

    Liao, Huei-Chu; Lee, Yi-Huey; Suen, Yu-Bo

    2008-01-01

    This paper uses daily Brent crude prices to investigate the employment of electronic trading on the returns conditional volatility in the oil futures market. After a suitable GARCH model is established, the conditional volatility series are found. The Bai and Perron model is then used to find two significant structural breaks for these conditional volatility series around two implementation dates of electronic trading. This result indicates that the change in the trading system has significant impacts on the returns volatility since our estimated second break date is very close to the all-electronic trade implementation date. Moreover, the conditional volatility in the all-electronic trading period is found to be more dominated by the temporal persistence rather than the volatility clustering effect. All these evidence can shed some light for explaining the high relationship between more volatile world oil price and the more popular electronic trade. (author)

  10. Molecular Theory and Simulation of Water-Oil Contacts

    Tan, Liang

    The statistical mechanical theory of hydrophobic interactions was initiated decades ago for purely repulsive hydrophobic species, in fact, originally for hard-sphere solutes in liquid water. Systems which treat only repulsive solute-water interactions obviously differ from the real world situation. The issue of the changes to be expected from inclusion of realistic attractive solute-water interactions has been of specific interest also for decades. We consider the local molecular field (LMF) theory for the effects of solute attractive forces on hydrophobic interactions. The principal result of LMF theory is outlined, then tested by obtaining radial distribution functions (rdfs) for Ar atoms in water, with and without attractive interactions distinguished by the Weeks-Chandler-Andersen (WCA) separation. Change from purely repulsive atomic solute interactions to include realistic attractive interactions substantially diminishes the strength of hydrophobic bonds. Since attractions make a big contribution to hydrophobic interactions, Pratt-Chandler theory, which did not include attractions, should not be naively compared to computer simulation results with general physical interactions, including attractions. Lack of general appreciation of this point has lead to mistaken comparisons throughout the history of this subject. The rdfs permit evaluation of osmotic second virial coefficients B2. Those B 2 are consistent with the conclusion that incorporation of attractive interactions leads to more positive (repulsive) values. In all cases here, B2 becomes more attractive with increasing temperature below T = 360K, the so-call inverse temperature behavior. In 2010, the Gulf of Mexico Macondo well (Deepwater Horizon) oil spill focused the attention of the world on water-oil phase equilibrium. In response to the disaster, chemical dispersants were applied to break oil slicks into droplets and thus to avoid large-scale fouling of beaches and to speed up biodegradation

  11. The spatiotemporal dynamic analysis of the implied market information and characteristics of the correlation coefficient matrix of the international crude oil price returns

    Tian, Lixin; Ding, Zhenqi; Zhen, Zaili; Wang, Minggang

    2016-01-01

    The international crude oil market plays a crucial role in economies, and the studies of the correlation, risk and synchronization of the international crude oil market have important implications for the security and stability of the country, avoidance of business risk and people's daily lives. We investigate the information and characteristics of the international crude oil market (1999-2015) based on the random matrix theory (RMT). Firstly, we identify richer information in the largest eigenvalues deviating from RMT predictions for the international crude oil market; the international crude oil market can be roughly divided into ten different periods by the methods of eigenvectors and characteristic combination, and the implied market information of the correlation coefficient matrix is advanced. Secondly, we study the characteristics of the international crude oil market by the methods of system risk entropy, dynamic synchronous ratio, dynamic non-synchronous ratio and dynamic clustering algorithm. The results show that the international crude oil market is full of risk. The synchronization of the international crude oil market is very strong, and WTI and Brent occupy a very important position in the international crude oil market. (orig.)

  12. The spatiotemporal dynamic analysis of the implied market information and characteristics of the correlation coefficient matrix of the international crude oil price returns

    Tian, Lixin [Jiangsu University, Energy Development and Environmental Protection Strategy Research Center, Zhenjiang, Jiangsu (China); Nanjing Normal University, School of Mathematical Sciences, Nanjing, Jiangsu (China); Ding, Zhenqi; Zhen, Zaili [Jiangsu University, Energy Development and Environmental Protection Strategy Research Center, Zhenjiang, Jiangsu (China); Wang, Minggang [Nanjing Normal University, School of Mathematical Sciences, Nanjing, Jiangsu (China)

    2016-08-15

    The international crude oil market plays a crucial role in economies, and the studies of the correlation, risk and synchronization of the international crude oil market have important implications for the security and stability of the country, avoidance of business risk and people's daily lives. We investigate the information and characteristics of the international crude oil market (1999-2015) based on the random matrix theory (RMT). Firstly, we identify richer information in the largest eigenvalues deviating from RMT predictions for the international crude oil market; the international crude oil market can be roughly divided into ten different periods by the methods of eigenvectors and characteristic combination, and the implied market information of the correlation coefficient matrix is advanced. Secondly, we study the characteristics of the international crude oil market by the methods of system risk entropy, dynamic synchronous ratio, dynamic non-synchronous ratio and dynamic clustering algorithm. The results show that the international crude oil market is full of risk. The synchronization of the international crude oil market is very strong, and WTI and Brent occupy a very important position in the international crude oil market. (orig.)

  13. WINS. Market Simulation Tool for Facilitating Wind Energy Integration

    Shahidehpour, Mohammad [Illinois Inst. of Technology, Chicago, IL (United States)

    2012-10-30

    Integrating 20% or more wind energy into the system and transmitting large sums of wind energy over long distances will require a decision making capability that can handle very large scale power systems with tens of thousands of buses and lines. There is a need to explore innovative analytical and implementation solutions for continuing reliable operations with the most economical integration of additional wind energy in power systems. A number of wind integration solution paths involve the adoption of new operating policies, dynamic scheduling of wind power across interties, pooling integration services, and adopting new transmission scheduling practices. Such practices can be examined by the decision tool developed by this project. This project developed a very efficient decision tool called Wind INtegration Simulator (WINS) and applied WINS to facilitate wind energy integration studies. WINS focused on augmenting the existing power utility capabilities to support collaborative planning, analysis, and wind integration project implementations. WINS also had the capability of simulating energy storage facilities so that feasibility studies of integrated wind energy system applications can be performed for systems with high wind energy penetrations. The development of WINS represents a major expansion of a very efficient decision tool called POwer Market Simulator (POMS), which was developed by IIT and has been used extensively for power system studies for decades. Specifically, WINS provides the following superiorities; (1) An integrated framework is included in WINS for the comprehensive modeling of DC transmission configurations, including mono-pole, bi-pole, tri-pole, back-to-back, and multi-terminal connection, as well as AC/DC converter models including current source converters (CSC) and voltage source converters (VSC); (2) An existing shortcoming of traditional decision tools for wind integration is the limited availability of user interface, i.e., decision

  14. Market Garden: a Simulation Environment for Research and User Experience in Smart Grids

    B.J. Liefers (Bart); F.N. Claessen (Felix); E.J. Pauwels (Eric); P.A.N. Bosman (Peter); J.A. La Poutré (Han)

    2014-01-01

    htmlabstractMarket Garden is a scalable research environment and demonstration tool, in which market mechanisms for smart energy systems and the interaction between end users, traders, system operators, and markets can be simulated. Users can create scenarios in a user-friendly editor in which a

  15. Determination of the oil distribution in a hermetic compressor using numerical simulation

    Posch, S.; Hopfgartner, J.; Berger, E.; Zuber, B.; Almbauer, R.; Schöllauf, P.

    2017-08-01

    In addition to the reduction of friction the oil in a hermetic compressor is very important for the transfer of heat from hot parts to the compressor shell. The simulation of the oil distribution in a hermetic reciprocating compressor for refrigeration application is shown in the present work. Using the commercial Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) software ANSYS Fluent, the oil flow inside the compressor shell from the oil pump outlet to the oil sump is calculated. A comprehensive overview of the used models and the boundary conditions is given. After reaching steady-state conditions the oil covered surfaces are analysed concerning heat transfer coefficients. The gained heat transfer coefficients are used as input parameters for a thermal model of a hermetic compressor. An increase in accuracy of the thermal model with the simulated heat transfer coefficients compared to values from literature is shown by model validation with experimental data.

  16. A game theory simulator for assessing the performances of competitive electricity markets

    Bompard, Ettore; Carpaneto, Enrico; Ciwei, Gao; Napoli, Roberto; Benini, Michele; Gallanti, Massimo; Migliavacca, Gianluigi

    2008-01-01

    In the last years, electricity markets were created all over the world following different basis concepts. Market structure, market rules, demand levels, market concentration and energy sources to produce electricity have a strong influence on market performances. Modifications on these aspects may significantly affect market outcomes. Sensitivity analyses need proper simulation tools. In this paper a medium run electricity market simulator (MREMS) based on game theory is presented. This simulator incorporates two different games, one for the unit commitment of thermal units and one for strategic bidding and hourly market clearing. Either a Forchheimer (one leader) or Bertrand (all player are leaders) or even intermediate model with a whatever number of leaders can be selected, in dependence on the strategic behavior of the producers, allowing for the simulation of markets with different levels of concentration. The simulator was applied to analyse producers' behavior during the first operative year of the Italian power exchange. A comparison between simulation and true market results was carried out in order to test the simulator and validate its simplifying hypotheses. MREMS, yet capable to be used stand-alone, was conceived as the heart of a long-term market simulator (LREMS) allowing to simulate the long-run evolution of the generation park (investments in new plants, refurbishment and dismission of older ones). LREMS is a hierarchic simulator: a long-term ''outer'' game takes yearly investment decisions based on mid-term price projections provided by MREMS. Although this paper is mainly devoted to describe MREMS, one specific section will provide an overview of the ''outer'' game implemented by LREMS. (author)

  17. Molecular Dynamics Simulation: The Behavior of Asphaltene in Crude Oil and at the Oil/Water Interface

    Gao, Fengfeng

    2014-12-18

    Carboxyl asphaltene is commonly discussed in the petroleum industry. In most conditions, electroneutral carboxyl asphaltene molecules can be deprotonated to become carboxylate asphaltenes. Both in crude oil and at the oil/water interface, the characteristics of anionic carboxylate asphaltenes are different than those of the carboxyl asphaltenes. In this paper, molecular dynamics (MD) simulations are utilized to study the structural features of different asphaltene molecules, namely, C5 Pe and anionic C5 Pe, at the molecular level. In crude oil, the electroneutral C5 Pe molecules prefer to form a steady face-to-face stacking, while the anionic C5 Pe molecules are inclined to form face-to-face stacking and T-shaped II stacking because of the repulsion of the anionic headgroups. Anionic C5 Pe has a distinct affinity to the oil/water interface during the simulation, while the C5 Pe molecules persist in the crude oil domain. A three-stage model of anionic C5 Pe molecules adsorbed at the oil/water interface is finally developed.

  18. Common cycles and common trends in the stock and oil markets: Evidence from more than 150 years of data

    Balcilar, Mehmet; Gupta, Rangan; Wohar, Mark E.

    2017-01-01

    This paper investigates the role of permanent and transitory shocks, within the framework of common cycles and common trends, in explaining stock and oil prices. We perform a multivariate variance decomposition analysis of monthly data on the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price and the S&P 500. The dataset used in the study spans a long period of 150 years and therefore contains a rich history to examine both the short- and long-run comovement properties of oil and stock prices. Given that the oil and stock markets might comove both in the short- and long-run, it is of interest to see the relative impacts of transitory and permanent shocks on both variables. We find that (log) oil price and (log) S&P 500 share a common stochastic trend for our full sample of September 1859 to July 2015, but a common cycle only exists during the post-WW II period. Full and post-WW II samples have quite different common feature estimates in terms of the impact of permanent and transitory shocks as measured by the impulse responses and forecast error variance decompositions. We also find that in the short-run oil is driven mostly by cycles (transitory shocks) and stock market is mostly driven by permanent shocks. But, permanent shocks dominate in the long-run. - Highlights: • Role of permanent and transitory shocks analyzed for oil and stock markets • The framework of common cycles and common trends used over 1859 to 2015 • Common stochastic trend for full-sample and common cycle post-World War II • Stock market driven by permanent shock in short- and long-runs • Oil market driven by temporary (permanent) shocks in short-run (long-run)

  19. The influence of interactions between market segmentation strategy and competition on organizational performance. A simulation study.

    Dolnicar, Sara; Freitag, Roman

    2003-01-01

    A computer simulation study is conducted to explore the interaction of alternative segmentation strategies and the competitiveness of the market environment, a goal that can neither be tackled by purely analytic approaches nor is sufficient and undistorted real market data available to deduct findings in an empirical manner. The fundamental idea of the simulation is to increase competition in the artificial marketplace and to study the influence of segmentation strategy and varying market con...

  20. Western Canadian crude oil supply and markets 2002-2010 : Executive summary

    2003-08-01

    The forecast of crude supply developed by the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP) indicates that additional pipeline capacity from western Canada to existing new markets will be required. A crude market study was undertaken to investigate and assess the potential development of the North American crude markets along with expected western Canadian crude supply growth. The results revealed that additional crude export capacity from Alberta will be required by 2006 or 2007. An analysis of three export pipeline scenarios was carried out: (1) Hardisty to Chicago, with a further extension to Cushing, Oklahoma, (2) Edmonton to the west coast of British Columbia, Prince Rupert, and (3) Hardisty to California. The most attractive aggregate benefits to heavy crude producers would result from a western export pipeline to British Columbia or California. A superior alternative is a pipeline to a deepwater tanker terminal on the coast of British Columbia. The Chicago pipeline option would become more attractive if Midwestern refiners were to expand their capacity to process heavy oil. Declining netbacks associated with sustained growth that is introduced into the market place are reflected in all scenarios over the forecast period until 2010. 1 tab., 23 figs

  1. Crude oil price dynamics: A study on effects of market expectation and strategic supply on price movements

    Jin, Xin

    Recent years have seen dramatic fluctuations in crude oil prices. This dissertation attempts to better understand price behavior. The first chapter studies the behavior of crude oil spot and futures prices. Oil prices, particularly spot and short-term futures prices, appear to have switched from I(0) to I(1) in early 2000s. To better understand this apparent change in persistence, a factor model of oil prices is proposed, where the prices are decomposed into long-term and short-term components. The change in the persistence behavior can be explained by changes in the relative volatility of the underlying components. Fitting the model to weekly data on WTI prices, the volatility of the persistent shocks increased substantially relative to other shocks. In addition, the risk premiums in futures prices have changed their signs and become more volatile. The estimated net marginal convenience yield using the model also shows changes in its behavior. These observations suggest that a dramatic fundamental change occurred in the period from 2002 to 2004 in the dynamics of the crude oil market. The second chapter explores the short-run price-inventory dynamics in the presence of different shocks. Classical competitive storage model states that inventory decision considers both current and future market condition, and thus interacts with spot and expected future spot prices. We study competitive storage holding in an equilibrium framework, focusing on the dynamic response of price and inventory to different shocks. We show that news shock generates response profile different from traditional contemporaneous shocks in price and inventory. The model is applied to world crude oil market, where the market expectation is estimated to experience a sharp change in early 2000s, together with a persisting constrained supply relative to demand. The expectation change has limited effect on crude oil spot price though. The world oil market structure has been studied extensively but no

  2. Simulation of Heating of an Oil-Cooled Insulated Gate Bipolar Transistors Converter Model

    Ovrebo, Gregory

    2004-01-01

    I used SolidWorks a three-dimensional modeling software, and FloWorks, a fluid dynamics analysis tool, to simulate oil flow and heat transfer in a heat sink structure attached to three insulated gate bipolar transistors...

  3. A Review of CO2-Enhanced Oil Recovery with a Simulated Sensitivity Analysis

    Mandadige Samintha Anne Perera

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper reports on a comprehensive study of the CO2-EOR (Enhanced oil recovery process, a detailed literature review and a numerical modelling study. According to past studies, CO2 injection can recover additional oil from reservoirs by reservoir pressure increment, oil swelling, the reduction of oil viscosity and density and the vaporization of oil hydrocarbons. Therefore, CO2-EOR can be used to enhance the two major oil recovery mechanisms in the field: miscible and immiscible oil recovery, which can be further increased by increasing the amount of CO2 injected, applying innovative flood design and well placement, improving the mobility ratio, extending miscibility, and controlling reservoir depth and temperature. A 3-D numerical model was developed using the CO2-Prophet simulator to examine the effective factors in the CO2-EOR process. According to that, in pure CO2 injection, oil production generally exhibits increasing trends with increasing CO2 injection rate and volume (in HCPV (Hydrocarbon pore volume and reservoir temperature. In the WAG (Water alternating gas process, oil production generally increases with increasing CO2 and water injection rates, the total amount of flood injected in HCPV and the distance between the injection wells, and reduces with WAG flood ratio and initial reservoir pressure. Compared to other factors, the water injection rate creates the minimum influence on oil production, and the CO2 injection rate, flood volume and distance between the flood wells have almost equally important influence on oil production.

  4. A labour market study of the manufacturing, oil and gas, and business services industries in Calgary

    1994-06-01

    A survey was conducted in Calgary in spring 1994 of 861 firms in the manufacturing, oil and gas, and service industries. The main objective of the survey was to collect labor market information to assist in making career and educational decisions. A total of 543 employment vacancies were identified, with the largest number of vacancies reported for electrical contractors, computer operators, petroleum engineers, geologists, and geological technicians. A total of 1,129 new personnel were planned to be hired in the near future. Of the employees covered by the survey, 57.1% were reported as having some post-secondary qualifications. Over 88% of reported employment was listed as full-time. Of the firms surveyed, 56.2% indicated that they would provide training to their employees over the next six months. Of the three industries surveyed, the oil and gas sector reported the largest increase in employment within the past six months. Improved profitability and sales in natural gas was a major factor for the reported increase of 1,648 employees in the oil and gas sector. 16 figs., 17 tabs

  5. Forward curves, scarcity and price volatility in oil and natural gas markets

    Geman, Helyette; Ohana, Steve

    2009-01-01

    The role of inventory in explaining the shape of the forward curve and spot price volatility in commodity markets is central in the theory of storage developed by Kaldor [Kaldor, N. (1939) ''Speculation and Economic Stability'', The Review of Economic Studies 7, 1-27] and Working [Working, H. (1949) ''The theory of the price of storage'', American Economic Review, 39, 1254-1262] and has since been documented in a vast body of financial literature, including the reference paper by Fama and French [Fama, E.F. and K.R. French (1987) ''Commodity futures prices: some evidence on forecast power, premiums and the theory of storage'', Journal of Business 60, 55-73] on metals. The goal of this paper is twofold: 1. validate in the case of oil and natural gas the use of the slope of the forward curve as a proxy for inventory (the slope being defined in a way that filters out seasonality); 2. analyze directly for these two major commodities the relationship between inventory and price volatility. In agreement with the theory of storage, we find that: 1. the negative correlation between price volatility and inventory is globally significant for crude oil; 2. this negative correlation prevails only during those periods of scarcity when the inventory is below the historical average and increases importantly during the winter periods for natural gas. Our results are illustrated by the analysis of a 15 year-database of US oil and natural gas prices and inventory. (author)

  6. Off-shore enhanced oil recovery in the north sea: matching CO_2 demand and supply given uncertain market conditions

    Compernolle, Tine; Welkenhuysen, Kris; Huisman, Kuno; Piessens, Kris; Kort, Peter

    2015-04-01

    Introduction CO2 enhanced oil recovery (CO2-EOR) entails the injection of CO2 in mature oil fields in order to mobilize the oil. In particular, the injected CO2 reduces the oil's viscosity and acts as a propellant, resulting in an increased oil extraction rate (Leach et al., 2011). Given uncertainty in both oil price and CO2 price under the EU ETS system, aim of this study is to analyze under which economic conditions a CO2 exchange can be established between a CO2 supplier (an electricity producer for whom CO2 is a by-product) and a CO2 user (an offshore oil company that exploits oil fields in the North Sea and needs CO2 for enhanced oil recovery). Methodology A techno-economic simulation tool, PSS IV, was developed to provide investment decision support on integrated CO2-EOR projects (Welkenhuysen et al., 2014). Until now, a fixed onshore supply of CO2 was presumed. An economic optimization model is now developed for both the CO2 producer and the CO2 user. Because net present value and discounted cash flow methods are inadequate to deal with issues like uncertainty and the irreversibility of an investment decision, the real options theory is applied (Dixit and Pindyck, 1994). The way in which cooperation between the companies can take place, will be studied using game theoretical concepts (Lukas and Welling, 2014). Economic and technical data on CO2 capture are available from the PSS database (Piessens et al., 2012). Data on EOR performance, CO2 requirements and various costs are taken from literature (BERR, 2007; Klokk et al., 2010; Pershad et al., 2012). Results/Findings It will be shown what the impact of price uncertainty is on the investment decision of the electricity producer to capture and sell CO2, and on the decision of the oil producer to make the necessary investments to inject CO2 for enhanced oil recovery. Based on these results, it will be determined under which economic conditions a CO2 exchange and transport can take place. Furthermore, also the

  7. Competitive Advantage and Marketing Performance (A Descriptive Survey on Oil Palm Plantation Industries in West Kalimantan Province

    Nurmala Nurmala

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available This research analyzes the competitive advantage in order to enhance the marketing performance of oil palm plantation companies in West Kalimantan Province, which aims to: (1 find out the implementation of competitive advantage of the oil palm plantation companies in West Kalimantan Province, (2 find out the achievement of marketing performance of the oil palm plantation companies in West Kalimantan Province, and (3 find out the influence of competitive advantage on the marketing performance of the oil palm plantation companies in West Kalimantan Province. This is a descriptive and verification research that uses a descriptive and explanatory survey on the analysis unit of oil palm plantation companies in West Kalimantan Province. The period of research implementation of two (2 years, divided into two stages; First Stage (2013 and Second Stage (2014. The data are collected using questionnaires as well as interviews and observations. The collected data are further processed using path analysis. The results of the First Stage (2013 research find that only few of the oil palm plantation companies in West Kalimantan Province are able to achieve the marketing performance in high category or above their expected target. This is presumed to be related to the weak competitiveness or competitive advantage of the companies as found in the results of descriptive analysis of this research. In order to understand more of such relatedness, it is necessary to conduct further research of the Second Stage (2014 focusing on investigating the influence of competitive advantage on the marketing performance of oil palm plantation companies in West Kalimantan Province.

  8. Simulation of stevedoring work in the Klaipėda oil terminal

    D. Makackas

    2002-10-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents the approach of developing simulation models of stevedoring work in oil terminal using aggregate approach and simulation system ARENA. Aggregate approach permits to develop formal specification of simulated systems. Aggregate specification of the system is presented as a set of interacting piece-linear aggregates. Controlling sequences are used for formal description of each piece-linear aggregate. Transformation of aggregate formal specification to ARENA system operators permits to develop a simulation model. The developed model permits to evaluate characteristics of the Klaipėda oil terminal which are used both in queuing theory and analysing timing properties of real-time systems.

  9. Microbial growth in Acrocomia aculeata pulp oil, Jatropha curcas oil, and their respective biodiesels under simulated storage conditions

    Juciana Clarice Cazarolli

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available With increasing demands for biodiesel in Brazil, diverse oil feedstocks have been investigated for their potentials for biodiesel production. Due to the high biodegradability of natural oils and their respective biodiesels, microbial growths and consequent deterioration of final product quality are generally observed during storage. This study was aimed at evaluating the susceptibility of Acrocomia aculeata pulp oil and Jatropha curcas oil as well as their respective biodiesels to biodeterioration during a simulated storage period. The experiment was conducted in microcosms containing oil/biodiesel and an aqueous phase over 30 d. The levels of microbial contamination included biodiesel and oil as received, inoculated with fungi, and sterile. Samples were collected every 7 d to measure pH, surface tension, acidity index, and microbial biomass. The initial and final ester contents of the biodiesels were also determined by gas chromatography. The major microbial biomass was detected in A. aculeata pulp and J. curcas biodiesels. Significant reductions in pH values were observed for treatments with A. aculeata pulp biodiesel as a carbon source (p

  10. A broadened causality in variance approach to assess the risk dynamics between crude oil prices and the Jordanian stock market

    Bouri, Elie

    2015-01-01

    Within the new developed causality-in-variance approach, this paper builds up a broad methodological framework to more accurately capture the risk spillover effects between global oil prices and Jordanian stock market returns during the period 1 March 2003–31 January 2014. The sample period is divided, on the basis of the 2008 financial crisis, into pre-crisis and post-crisis periods. Results for the pre-crisis period show a lack of risk spillovers between global oil and the Jordanian stock market. After the crisis, however, we find evidence for one-way risk spillover running from the oil market. These findings have implications for the design of appropriate asset allocation and regulatory policies to manage risk spillover effects. -- Highlights: •A broad methodological framework accurately seizes dynamic risk spillover between oil prices and Jordanian stock returns. •We find insignificant risk spillover until the start of the financial crisis. •Crude oil transmits its risk to the Jordanian stock market

  11. Estimating oil price 'Value at Risk' using the historical simulation approach

    Cabedo, J.D.; Moya, I.

    2003-01-01

    In this paper we propose using Value at Risk (VaR) for oil price risk quantification. VaR provides an estimation for the maximum oil price change associated with a likelihood level, and can be used for designing risk management strategies. We analyse three VaR calculation methods: the historical simulation standard approach, the historical simulation with ARMA forecasts (HSAF) approach. developed in this paper, and the variance-covariance method based on autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity models forecasts. The results obtained indicate that HSAF methodology provides a flexible VaR quantification, which fits the continuous oil price movements well and provides an efficient risk quantification. (author)

  12. Estimating oil price 'Value at Risk' using the historical simulation approach

    David Cabedo, J.; Moya, Ismael

    2003-01-01

    In this paper we propose using Value at Risk (VaR) for oil price risk quantification. VaR provides an estimation for the maximum oil price change associated with a likelihood level, and can be used for designing risk management strategies. We analyse three VaR calculation methods: the historical simulation standard approach, the historical simulation with ARMA forecasts (HSAF) approach, developed in this paper, and the variance-covariance method based on autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity models forecasts. The results obtained indicate that HSAF methodology provides a flexible VaR quantification, which fits the continuous oil price movements well and provides an efficient risk quantification

  13. WERE OIL PRICE MARKETS THE SOURCE OF CREDIT CRISIS IN EUROPEAN COUNTRIES? EVIDENCE USING A VAR-MGARCH-DCC MODEL

    Nadhem Selmi

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines the role of oil prices, credit, financial and commercial linkages in the propagation of industrial market crises during the period 2004-2012. Using VAR-MGARCH-DCC model regressions on seven markets finds that credit linkage played a significant role in the subprime, financial and global crises. Our results also show that the European debt crisis has already spread like a crisis from oil prices to Ireland and Portugal, and other countries are now at risk: Spain is a probable candidate for financial crisis.

  14. Experimental and simulated displacement of oil in sand berea cores using aqueous solutions

    Ramirez, A.; Gonzalez, J.L.; Hernandez, F.; Hernandez, H.

    2009-01-01

    The development of a mathematical algorithm to simulate the displacement of a resident fluid using a displacing one in a saturated anisotropic porous media is shown in this work. The algorithm was included in the simulator developed by the present authors in previous works to represent the anisotropic distribution of the porous media properties and the fluid injection [Ramirez A et al. Mathematical simulation of oil reservoir properties. Chaos, solitons and Fractals 2008;38:778-88, Ramirez A et al. Simulation of uncompressible fluid flow through a porous media. Chaos, Solitons and Fractals 2009;39:1753-63] in a nested loop to analyze the participant nodes in the transport process and calculate the volumes of the resident and new fluids. The new routine developed takes in count the mobility of both fluids. Additionally experimental fluid displacement tests were done using heavy oil from Mexican reservoirs as a resident fluid in sand berea cores. The injection of new fluids in natural oil reservoirs is a part of the Enhanced oil recovery (EOR) methods used to improve the oil displacement and increase production after the primary stage of the oil recovery has been finished. Water is an available and economical resource to be used as a displacing fluid due to many of the producers (off-shores) of the oil industries are placed in the sea near the coast.

  15. Influence of physical and chemical dispersion on the biodegradation of oil under simulated marine conditions

    Swannell, R. P. J.; Daniel, F.; Croft, B. C.; Engelhardt, M. A.; Wilson, S.; Mitchell, D. J.; Lunel, T.

    1997-01-01

    Dispersion and biodegradation of oil was studied in marine microcosms designed to simulate oil dispersion at sea. Dispersion was studied using both Phase Doppler Particle Analyser and a Chamber Slide technique. In both natural and artificial seawater, oil addition was observed to encourage the growth of hydrocarbon-degrading bacteria in the presence of sufficient nitrogen and phosphorus. Results showed that microorganisms enhanced oil dispersion by colonizing physically-dispersed oil droplets and preventing re-coalescence with the surface slick. The addition of dispersants increased the rate of colonization as well as the number of degraded droplets. These results suggest that stimulation of physical dispersion by chemical means increase the rate of oil biodegradation under natural conditions. 25 refs., 3 tabs., 14 figs

  16. Simulation of Fog Oil Deposition During Military Training Operations

    Haehnel, Robert B

    2008-01-01

    ...) obscurant on the ground using the SCIPuff aerosol transport model. Model results are compared to actual deposition of fog oil measure on the ground during two military training exercises in Alaska...

  17. Simulation of an oil film at the sea surface and its radiometric properties in the SWIR

    Schwenger, Frédéric; Van Eijk, Alexander M. J.

    2017-10-01

    The knowledge of the optical contrast of an oil layer on the sea under various surface roughness conditions is of great interest for oil slick monitoring techniques. This paper presents a 3D simulation of a dynamic sea surface contaminated by a floating oil film. The simulation considers the damping influence of oil on the ocean waves and its physical properties. It calculates the radiance contrast of the sea surface polluted by the oil film in relation to a clean sea surface for the SWIR spectral band. Our computer simulation combines the 3D simulation of a maritime scene (open clear sea/clear sky) with an oil film at the sea surface. The basic geometry of a clean sea surface is modeled by a composition of smooth wind driven gravity waves. Oil on the sea surface attenuates the capillary and short gravity waves modulating the wave power density spectrum of these waves. The radiance of the maritime scene is calculated in the SWIR spectral band with the emitted sea surface radiance and the specularly reflected sky radiance as components. Wave hiding and shadowing, especially occurring at low viewing angles, are considered. The specular reflection of the sky radiance at the clean sea surface is modeled by an analytical statistical bidirectional reflectance distribution function (BRDF) of the sea surface. For oil at the sea surface, a specific BRDF is used influenced by the reduced surface roughness, i.e., the modulated wave density spectrum. The radiance contrast of an oil film in relation to the clean sea surface is calculated for different viewing angles, wind speeds, and oil types characterized by their specific physical properties.

  18. Engaging Marketing Students: Student Operated Businesses in a Simulated World

    Russell-Bennett, Rebekah; Rundle-Thiele, Sharyn R.; Kuhn, Kerri-Ann

    2010-01-01

    Engaged students are committed and more likely to continue their university studies. Subsequently, they are less resource intensive from a university's perspective. This article details an experiential second-year marketing course that requires students to develop real products and services to sell on two organized market days. In the course,…

  19. Oil spills and AI: How to manage resources through simulation

    Giribone, P.; Bruzzone, A.G.; Caddeo, S.

    1995-01-01

    Today, in the Mediterranean theater of the Upper Tyrrhenian, the ecological risk involving oil installations is still quite high. This is due to the fact that valuable environmental and tourist areas exist together with large industrial and port structures; in particular, recent events have demonstrated the danger involving oil spills along the Ligurian coastline. This study proposes an approach to plan the operations that should be performed when accidents occur, based on the use of AI techniques

  20. The design and simulation of new downhole vibration device about acoustic oil recovery technology

    Yongjun Hou

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available More and more oilfields are using acoustic technology to enhance oil recovery. In order to know the mechanism of acoustic oil recovery technology, the sound radiator of a new downhole vibration device is modeled and analyzed. Based on the theoretical background, this paper firstly analyzes the acoustic mechanism for the oil reservoir and then makes a acoustic response analysis on the sound radiator model for frequency and time-domain investigation by using professional acoustic simulation software–LMS Virtual.lab Acoustics, finally calculates the acoustic transmission loss in the downhole oil reservoir. The research reveals that firstly, acoustic waves have influences on the oil & water fluidity in the oil reservoir, the oil pressure gradient and the interfacial tension of capillary; secondly, the acoustic radiation power and sound pressure of field point attain a peak on the natural frequency of the sound radiator; thirdly, with the acoustic impact, the sound pressure of oil reservoir would fluctuate so as to improve the oil recovery ratio; the last but not the least one is both the sound pressure of oil reservoir point and the transmission loss of rock have a positive correlation with the vibration frequency. Therefore, it is of great importance for the research of vibration frequency and structure optimization of sound radiator.