WorldWideScience

Sample records for ocean-atmosphere teleconnection patterns

  1. Prediction Center (CPC) Polar Eurasia Teleconnection Pattern Index

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Monthly tabulated index of the Polar-Eurasia teleconnection pattern. The data spans the period 1950 to present. The index is derived from a rotated principal...

  2. Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Pacific Transition Teleconnection Pattern Index

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Monthly tabulated index of the Pacific Transition teleconnection pattern. The data spans the period 1950 to present. The index is derived from a rotated principal...

  3. Climate Prediction Center (CPC) East Atlantic Teleconnection Pattern Index

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Monthly tabulated index of the East Atlantic Teleconnection pattern. The data spans the period 1950 to present. The index is derived from a rotated principal...

  4. Prediction Center (CPC) Tropical/ Northern Hemisphere Teleconnection Pattern Index

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Monthly tabulated index of the Tropical/ Northern Hemisphere teleconnection pattern. The data spans the period 1950 to present. The index is derived from a rotated...

  5. Climate Prediction Center (CPC) West Pacific Teleconnection Pattern Index

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Monthly tabulated index of the West Pacific (WP) teleconnection pattern. The data spans the period 1950 to present. The index is derived from a rotated principal...

  6. Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Scandinavia Teleconnection Pattern Index

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    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Monthly tabulated index of the Scandinavia teleconnection pattern. The data spans the period 1950 to present. The index is derived from a rotated principal component...

  7. Analysis of Roanoke Region Weather Patterns Under Global Teleconnections

    OpenAIRE

    LaRocque, Eric John

    2006-01-01

    This work attempts to relate global teleconnections, through physical phenomena such as the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Artic Oscillation (AO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the Pacific North American (PNA) pattern to synoptic-scale weather patterns and precipitation in the Roanoke, Virginia region. The first chapter describes the behavior of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) by implementing non-homogeneous and homogeneous Markov Chain models on a monthly time series o...

  8. Seasonal Prediction of Taiwan's Streamflow Using Teleconnection Patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Chia-Jeng; Lee, Tsung-Yu

    2017-04-01

    Seasonal streamflow as an integrated response to complex hydro-climatic processes can be subject to activity of prevailing weather systems potentially modulated by large-scale climate oscillations (e.g., El Niño-Southern Oscillation, ENSO). To develop a seamless seasonal forecasting system in Taiwan, this study assesses how significant Taiwan's precipitation and streamflow in different seasons correlate with selected teleconnection patterns. Long-term precipitation and streamflow data in three major precipitation seasons, namely the spring rains (February to April), Mei-Yu (May and June), and typhoon (July to September) seasons, are derived at 28 upstream and 13 downstream catchments in Taiwan. The three seasons depict a complete wet period of Taiwan as well as many regions bearing similar climatic conditions in East Asia. Lagged correlation analysis is then performed to investigate how the precipitation and streamflow data correlate with predominant teleconnection indices at varied lead times. Teleconnection indices are selected only if they show certain linkage with weather systems and activity in the three seasons based on previous literature. For instance, the ENSO and Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, proven to influence East Asian climate across seasons and summer typhoon activity, respectively, are included in the list of climate indices for correlation analysis. Significant correlations found between Taiwan's precipitation and streamflow and teleconnection indices are further examined by a climate regime shift (CRS) test to identify any abrupt changes in the correlations. The understanding of existing CRS is useful for informing the forecasting system of the changes in the predictor-predictand relationship. To evaluate prediction skill in the three seasons and skill differences between precipitation and streamflow, hindcasting experiments of precipitation and streamflow are conducted using stepwise linear regression models. Discussion and suggestions for coping

  9. Integrated Remote Sensing and Wavelet Analyses for Screening Short-term Teleconnection Patterns in Northeast America

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    Global sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies have a demonstrable effect on vegetation dynamics and precipitation patterns throughout the continental U.S. SST variations have been correlated with greenness (vegetation densities) and precipitation via ocean-atmospheric interactio...

  10. Multi-scale Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting Using Nonlinear and Nonstationary Teleconnection Signals and Artificial Neural Network Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Global sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies can affect terrestrial precipitation via ocean-atmosphere interaction known as climate teleconnection. Non-stationary and non-linear characteristics of the ocean-atmosphere system make the identification of the teleconnection signals...

  11. Climate Prediction Center (CPC) East Atlantic/ Western Russia Teleconnection Pattern Index

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Monthly tabulated index of the East Atlantic/ Western Russia teleconnection pattern. The data spans the period 1950 to present. The index is derived from a rotated...

  12. Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Monthly Pacific North American Teleconnection Pattern Index

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Monthly tabulated index of the Pacific/ North American teleconnection pattern. The data spans the period 1950 to present. The index is derived from a rotated...

  13. Climate Prediction Center (CPC) East Pacific/ North Pacific Teleconnection Pattern Index

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Monthly tabulated index of the East Pacific/ North Pacific teleconnection pattern. The data spans the period 1950 to present. The index is derived from a rotated...

  14. Cold season Africa-Asia multidecadal teleconnection pattern and its relation to the Atlantic multidecadal variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Cheng; Li, Jianping; Ding, Ruiqiang; Jin, Ze

    2017-06-01

    A prominent teleconnection pattern of multidecadal variability of cold season (November to April) upper-level atmospheric circulation over North Africa and Eurasia (NA-EA) is revealed by empirical orthogonal function analysis of the Twentieth Century Reanalysis data. This teleconnection pattern is characterized by an eastward propagating wave train with a zonal wavenumber of 5-6 between 20° and 40°N, extending from the northwest coast of Africa to East Asia, and thus is referred to as the Africa-Asia multidecadal teleconnection pattern (AAMT). One-point correlation maps show that the teleconnectivity of AAMT is strong and further demonstrate the existence of the AAMT. The AAMT shapes the spatial structure of multidecadal change in atmospheric circulation over the NA-EA region, and in particular the AAMT pattern and associated fields show similar structures to the change occurring around the early 1960s. A strong in-phase relationship is observed between the AAMT and Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) and this connection is mainly due to Rossby wave dynamics. Barotropic modeling results suggest that the upper-level Rossby wave source generated by the AMV can excite the AAMT wave train, and Rossby wave ray tracing analysis further highlights the role of the Asian jet stream in guiding the wave train to East Asia. The AAMT acts as an atmospheric bridge conveying the influence of AMV onto the downstream multidecadal climate variability. The AMV is closely related to the coordinated change in surface and tropospheric air temperatures over Northwest Africa, the Arabian Peninsula and Central China, which may result from the adiabatic expansion/compression of air associated with the AAMT.

  15. Impacts of four northern-hemisphere teleconnection patterns on atmospheric circulations over Eurasia and the Pacific

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Tao; Yu, Jin-yi; Paek, Houk

    2017-08-01

    The impacts of four teleconnection patterns on atmospheric circulation components over Eurasia and the Pacific region, from low to high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere (NH), were investigated comprehensively in this study. The patterns, as identified by the Climate Prediction Center (USA), were the East Atlantic (EA), East Atlantic/Western Russia (EAWR), Polar/Eurasia (POLEUR), and Scandinavian (SCAND) teleconnections. Results indicate that the EA pattern is closely related to the intensity of the subtropical high over different sectors of the NH in all seasons, especially boreal winter. The wave train associated with this pattern serves as an atmospheric bridge that transfers Atlantic influence into the low-latitude region of the Pacific. In addition, the amplitudes of the EAWR, SCAND, and POLEUR patterns were found to have considerable control on the "Vangengeim-Girs" circulation that forms over the Atlantic-Eurasian region in winter or spring. The EA and EAWR mainly affect the westerlies in winter and spring and the POLEUR and SCAND, respectively, in summer and winter. Strong westerlies confine the extension of the North Polar vortex, which generally results in a small weak vortex and a shallow East Asian trough located in a position further east than normal. Furthermore, the North Polar vortex presents significant connections with the patterns during winter and summer. Analyses in this work suggest that the teleconnection patterns in summer could be driven, at least partly, by the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, which to some degree might transmit the influence of the Atlantic Ocean to Eurasia and the Pacific region.

  16. Effect of boreal spring precipitation anomaly pattern change in the late 1990s over tropical Pacific on the atmospheric teleconnection

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    Guo, Yuanyuan; Wen, Zhiping; Chen, Ruidan; Li, Xiuzhen; Yang, Xiu-Qun

    2018-02-01

    Observational evidence showed that the leading mode of precipitation variability over the tropical Pacific during boreal spring experienced a pronounced interdecadal change around the late 1990s, characterized by a precipitation pattern shift from an eastern Pacific (EP) type to a central Pacific (CP) type. The distinct impacts of such a precipitation pattern shift on the extratropical atmospheric teleconnection were examined. An apparent poleward teleconnection extending from the tropics to the North Atlantic region was observed after 1998, while, there was no significant teleconnection before 1998. To understand why only the CP-type precipitation mode is associated with a striking atmospheric teleconnection after 1998, diagnostic analyses with the Eliassen-Palm flux and Rossby wave source (RWS) based on the barotropic vorticity equation were performed. The results show that for the EP-type precipitation mode, no significant RWS anomalies appeared over the subtropical Pacific due to the opposite effect of the vortex stretching and absolute vorticity advection processes. For the CP-type precipitation mode, however, there are both significant vorticity forcing source over the subtropical CP and clear poleward-propagation of Rossby wave. The spatial distribution of the CP-type precipitation pattern tends to excite a conspicuous anomalous southerly and a well-organized negative vorticity center over the subtropical CP where both the mean absolute vorticity gradient and mean divergence flow are large, hence, the interaction between the heating-induced anomalous circulation and the basic state made the generation of Rossby waves conceivable and effective. Such corresponding teleconnection responses to the prescribed heating were also examined by using a Linear Baroclinic Model (LBM). It turned out that significant poleward teleconnection pattern is only caused by the CP-type precipitation mode, rather than by the EP-type precipitation mode. Further sensitive experiments

  17. Regional Famine Patterns of The Last Millennium as Influenced by Aggregated Climate Teleconnections

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    Santoro, Michael Melton

    Famine is the result of a complex set of environmental and social factors. Climate conditions are established as environmental factors contributing to famine occurrence, often through teleconnective patterns. This dissertation is designed to investigate the combined influence on world famine patterns of teleconnections, specifically the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Southern Oscillation (SO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), or regional climate variations such as the South Asian Summer Monsoon (SASM). The investigation is three regional case studies of famine patterns specifically, Egypt, the British Isles, and India. The first study (published in Holocene) employs the results of a Principal Component Analysis (PCA) yielding a SO-NAO eigenvector to predict major Egyptian famines between AD 1049-1921. The SO-NAO eigenvector (1) successfully discriminates between the 5-10 years preceding a famine and the other years, (2) predicts eight of ten major famines, and (3) correctly identifies fifty out of eighty events (63%) of food availability decline leading up to major famines. The second study investigates the impact of the NAO, PDO, SO, and AMO on 63 British Isle famines between AD 1049 and 1914 attributed to climate causes in historical texts. Stepwise Regression Analysis demonstrates that the 5-year lagged NAO is the primary teleconnective influence on famine patterns; it successfully discriminates 73.8% of weather-related famines in the British Isles from 1049 to 1914. The final study identifies the aggregated influence of the NAO, SO, PDO, and SASM on 70 Indian famines from AD 1049 to 1955. PCA results in a NAO-SOI vector and SASM vector that predicts famine conditions with a positive NAO and negative SO, distinct from the secondary SASM influence. The NAO-famine relationship is consistently the strongest; 181 of 220 (82%) of all famines occurred during positive NAO years. Ultimately, the causes of famine are complex

  18. Predictability of rainfall and teleconnections patterns influencing on Southwest Europe from sea surfaces temperatures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lorenzo, M. N.; Iglesias, I.; Taboada, J. J.; Gómez-Gesteira, M.; Ramos, A. M.

    2009-04-01

    This work assesses the possibility of doing a forecast of rainfall and the main teleconnections patterns that influences climate in Southwest Europe by using sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA). The area under study is located in the NW Iberian Peninsula. This region has a great oceanic influence on its climate and has an important dependency of the water resources. In this way if the different SST patterns are known, the different rainfall situations can be predicted. On the other hand, the teleconnection patterns, which have strong weight on rainfall, are influenced by the SSTA of different areas. In the light of this, the aim of this study is to explore the relationship between global SSTAs, rainfall and the main teleconnection patterns influencing on Europe. The SST data with a 2.0 degree resolution was provided by the NOAA/OAR/ESRL PSD, Boulder, Colorado, USA. A monthly averaged data from 1 January 1951 through December 2006 was considered. The monthly precipitation data from 1951-2006 were obtained from the database CLIMA of the University of Santiago de Compostela with data from the Meteorological State Agency (AEMET) and the Regional Government of Galicia. The teleconnection indices were taken of the Climate Prediction Center of the NOAA between 1950 and 2006. A monthly and seasonal study was analysed considering up to three months of delay in the first case and up to four seasons of delay in the second case. The Pearson product-moment correlation coefficient r was considered to quantify linear associations between SSTA and precipitation and/or SSTA and teleconnection indices. A test for field-significance was applied considering the properties of finiteness and interdependence of the spatial grid to avoid spurious correlations. Analysing the results obtained with the global SSTA and the teleconnection indices, a great number of ocean regions with high correlations can be found. The spatial patterns show very high correlations with Indian Ocean waters

  19. North Atlantic teleconnection patterns signature on sea level from satellite altimetry

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    Iglesias, Isabel; Lázaro, Clara; Joana Fernandes, M.; Bastos, Luísa

    2015-04-01

    Presently, satellite altimetry record is long enough to appropriately study inter-annual signals in sea level anomaly and ocean surface circulation, allowing the association of teleconnection patterns of low-frequency variability with the response of sea level. The variability of the Atlantic Ocean at basin-scale is known to be complex in space and time, with the dominant mode occurring on annual timescales. However, interannual and decadal variability have already been documented in sea surface temperature. Both modes are believed to be linked and are known to influence sea level along coastal regions. The analysis of the sea level multiannual variability is thus essential to understand the present climate and its long-term variability. While in the open-ocean sea level anomaly from satellite altimetry currently possesses centimetre-level accuracy, satellite altimetry measurements become invalid or of lower accuracy along the coast due to the invalidity of the wet tropospheric correction (WTC) derived from on-board microwave radiometers. In order to adequately analyse long-term changes in sea level in the coastal regions, satellite altimetry measurements can be recovered by using an improved WTC computed from recent algorithms that combine wet path delays from all available observations (remote sensing scanning imaging radiometers, GNSS stations, microwave radiometers on-board satellite altimetry missions and numerical weather models). In this study, a 20-year (1993-2013) time series of multi-mission satellite altimetry (TOPEX/Poseidon, Jason-1, OSTM/Jason-2, ERS-1/2, ENVISAT, CryoSat-2 and SARAL), are used to characterize the North Atlantic (NA) long-term variability on sea level at basin-scale and analyse its response to several atmospheric teleconnections known to operate on the NA. The altimetry record was generated using an improved coastal WTC computed from either the GNSS-derived path Delay or the Data Combination methodologies developed by University of

  20. Links of the significant wave height distribution in the Mediterranean sea with the Northern Hemisphere teleconnection patterns

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Lionello

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available This study analyzes the link between the SWH (Significant Wave Height distribution in the Mediterranean Sea during the second half of the 20th century and the Northern Hemisphere SLP (Sea Level Pressure teleconnection patterns.

    The SWH distribution is computed using the WAM (WAve Model forced by the surface wind fields provided by the ERA-40 reanalysis for the period 1958–2001. The time series of mid-latitude teleconnection patterns are downloaded from the NOAA web site. This study shows that several mid-latitude patterns are linked to the SWH field in the Mediterranean, especially in its western part during the cold season: East Atlantic Pattern (EA, Scandinavian Pattern (SCA, North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO, East Atlantic/West Russia Pattern (EA/WR and East Pacific/ North Pacific Pattern (EP/NP. Though the East Atlantic pattern exerts the largest influence, it is not sufficient to characterize the dominant variability. NAO, though relevant, has an effect smaller than EA and comparable to other patterns. Some link results from possibly spurious structures. Patterns which have a very different global structure are associated to similar spatial features of the wave variability in the Mediterranean Sea. These two problems are, admittedly, shortcomings of this analysis, which shows the complexity of the response of the Mediterranean SWH to global scale SLP teleconnection patterns.

  1. Combined Effects of Synoptic-Scale Teleconnection Patterns on Summer Precipitation in Southern China

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    Chao Wang

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Using ERA-Interim daily reanalysis and precipitation data, the combined effects of East Asia-Pacific (EAP and Silk Road (SR teleconnection patterns on summer precipitation in Southern China were investigated on synoptic to sub-monthly timescales. Combined EAP and SR patterns lead to more persistent and extreme precipitation in the Yangtze River Valley (YRV and exhibit an obvious zonal advance between the South Asia High (SAH and Western Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH prior to its onset. During typical combined events, an overlap between the SAH and WPSH remains in a favorable position for Persistent Extreme Precipitation (PEP. Furthermore, SR-induced acceleration of the westerly jet stream and extra positive vorticity advection provide persistent upper-level divergence for YRV precipitation. An anomalous EAP-related cyclone/anticyclone pair over East Asia induces enhanced low-level southwesterlies to the northern anticyclone flank and northerlies from the mid-latitudes, advecting anomalously abundant moisture toward the YRV, resulting in clear moisture convergence. Moreover, the strong ascent of warmer/moister air along a quasi-stationary front may be crucial for PEP. During decay, the SAH and WPSH diverge from each other and retreat to their normal positions, and the strong ascent of warmer/moister air rapidly weakens to dissipation, terminating PEP in the YRV.

  2. Tendencies of extreme values on rainfall and temperature and its relationship with teleconnection patterns

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    Taboada, J. J.; Cabrejo, A.; Guarin, D.; Ramos, A. M.

    2009-04-01

    It is now very well established that yearly averaged temperatures are increasing due to anthropogenic climate change. In the area of Galicia (NW Spain) this trend has also been determined. Rainfall does not show a clear tendency in its yearly accumulated values. The aim of this work is to study different extreme indices of rainfall and temperatures analysing variability and possible trends associated to climate change. Station data for the study was provided by the CLIMA database of the regional government of Galicia (NW Spain). The definition of the extreme indices was taken from the joint CCl/CLIVAR/JCOMM Expert Team (ET) on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) This group has defined a set of standard extreme values to simplify intercomparison of data from different regions of the world. For the temperatures in the period 1960-2006, results show a significant increase of the number of days with maximum temperatures above the 90th percentile. Furthermore, a significant decrease of the days with maximum temperatures below the 10th percentile has been found. The tendencies of minimum temperatures are reverse: fewer nights with minimum temperatures below 10th percentile, and more with minimum temperatures above 90th percentile. Those tendencies can be observed all over the year, but are more pronounced in summer. This trend is expected to continue in the next decades because of anthropogenic climate change. We have also calculated the relationship between the above mentioned extreme values and different teleconnection patterns appearing in the North Atlantic area. Results show that local tendencies are associated with trends of EA (Eastern Atlantic) and SCA (Scandinavian) patterns. NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) has also some relationship with these tendencies, but only related with cold days and nights in winter. Rainfall index do not show any clear tendency on the annual scale. Nevertheless, the count of days when precipitation is greater than 20mm (R20

  3. Climate teleconnections and recent patterns of human and animal disease outbreaks.

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    Assaf Anyamba

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Recent clusters of outbreaks of mosquito-borne diseases (Rift Valley fever and chikungunya in Africa and parts of the Indian Ocean islands illustrate how interannual climate variability influences the changing risk patterns of disease outbreaks. Although Rift Valley fever outbreaks have been known to follow periods of above-normal rainfall, the timing of the outbreak events has largely been unknown. Similarly, there is inadequate knowledge on climate drivers of chikungunya outbreaks. We analyze a variety of climate and satellite-derived vegetation measurements to explain the coupling between patterns of climate variability and disease outbreaks of Rift Valley fever and chikungunya.We derived a teleconnections map by correlating long-term monthly global precipitation data with the NINO3.4 sea surface temperature (SST anomaly index. This map identifies regional hot-spots where rainfall variability may have an influence on the ecology of vector borne disease. Among the regions are Eastern and Southern Africa where outbreaks of chikungunya and Rift Valley fever occurred 2004-2009. Chikungunya and Rift Valley fever case locations were mapped to corresponding climate data anomalies to understand associations between specific anomaly patterns in ecological and climate variables and disease outbreak patterns through space and time. From these maps we explored associations among Rift Valley fever disease occurrence locations and cumulative rainfall and vegetation index anomalies. We illustrated the time lag between the driving climate conditions and the timing of the first case of Rift Valley fever. Results showed that reported outbreaks of Rift Valley fever occurred after ∼3-4 months of sustained above-normal rainfall and associated green-up in vegetation, conditions ideal for Rift Valley fever mosquito vectors. For chikungunya we explored associations among surface air temperature, precipitation anomalies, and chikungunya outbreak locations. We found

  4. Assessing Intelligent Models in Forecasting Monthly Rainfall by Means of Teleconnection Patterns (Case Study: Khorasan Razavi Province

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    Farzaneh Nazarieh

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Rainfall is affected by changes in the global sea level change, especially changes in sea surface temperature SST Sea Surface Temperature and sea level pressure SLP Sea level Pressure. Climate anomalies being related to each other at large distance is called teleconnection. As physical relationships between rainfall and teleconnection patterns are not defined clearly, we used intelligent models for forecasting rainfall. The intelligent models used in this study included Fuzzy Inference Systems, neural network and Neuro-fuzzy. In this study, first the teleconnection indices that could affect rainfall in the study area were identified. Then intelligent models were trained for rainfall forecasting. Finally, the most capable model for forecasting rainfall was presented. The study area for this research is the Khorasan Razavi Province. In order to present a model for rainfall forecasting, rainfall data of seven synoptic stations including Mashhad, Golmakan, Nishapur, Sabzevar, Kashmar, Torbate and Sharks since 1991 to 2010 were used. Materials and Methods: Based on previous studies about Teleconnection Patterns in the study area, effective Teleconnection indexes were identified. After calculating the correlation between the identified teleconnection indices and rainfall in one, two and three months ahead for all stations, fourteen teleconnection indices were chosen as inputs for intelligent models. These indices include, SLP Adriatic , SLP northern Red Sea, SLP Mediterranean Sea, SLP Aral sea, SST Sea surface temperature Labrador sea, SST Oman Sea, SST Caspian Sea, SST Persian Gulf, North Pacific pattern, SST Tropical Pacific in NINO12 and NINO3 regions, North Pacific Oscillation, Trans-Nino Index, Multivariable Enso Index. Inputs of the intelligent models include fourteen teleconnection indices, latitude and altitude of each station and their outputs are the prediction of rainfall for one, two and three months ahead. For calibration of

  5. Risk from drought and extreme heat in Russian wheat production and its relation to atmospheric blocking and teleconnection patterns

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    Giannakaki, Paraskevi; Calanca, Pierluigi

    2017-04-01

    Russia has become one of the leading wheat exporters worldwide. Major breakdowns in Russian wheat production induced by extreme weather events are therefore of high significance not only for the domestic but also for the global market. Wheat production in south-western Russia, the main growing area, suffers in particular from the adverse effects of drought and heat waves. For this reason knowledge of the occurrence of this type of extreme events and of the processes that lead to adverse conditions is of paramount importance for risk management. The negative impacts of heat waves and drought are particularly severe when anomalous conditions persist in time. As an example, a blocking event in summer 2010 resulted in one of the warmest and worst drought conditions in Russia's recent history. The latter caused a decline in Russian wheat production by more than 30%, which in turn prompted the Russian government to issue an export ban that lasted until summer 2011. In view of this, the question of course arises of how much of the negative variations in Russian wheat production levels can be explained by blocking events and other features of the large-scale atmospheric circulation. Specific questions are: how often are blocking events over Russia associated with extreme high temperatures and dry conditions? Which of the teleconnection patterns are correlated with drought and heat stress conditions in the area? Answering these questions can contribute to a develop strategies for agricultural risk management. In this contribution we present results of a study that aims at characterizing the occurrence of adverse weather conditions in south-western Russia in relation to atmospheric blocking and teleconnection patterns such as East Atlantic/Western Russia pattern, the Polar/Eurasia pattern, the North Atlantic Oscillation and the Scandinavia pattern. The analysis relies on weather data for 1980-2014 from 130 stations distributed across the wheat production area. The account

  6. Regime Behavior in Paleo-Reconstructed Streamflow: Attributions to Atmospheric Dynamics, Synoptic Circulation and Large-Scale Climate Teleconnection Patterns

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    Ravindranath, A.; Devineni, N.

    2017-12-01

    Studies have shown that streamflow behavior and dynamics have a significant link with climate and climate variability. Patterns of persistent regime behavior from extended streamflow records in many watersheds justify investigating large-scale climate mechanisms as potential drivers of hydrologic regime behavior and streamflow variability. Understanding such streamflow-climate relationships is crucial to forecasting/simulation systems and the planning and management of water resources. In this study, hidden Markov models are used with reconstructed streamflow to detect regime-like behaviors - the hidden states - and state transition phenomena. Individual extreme events and their spatial variability across the basin are then verified with the identified states. Wavelet analysis is performed to examine the signals over time in the streamflow records. Joint analyses of the climatic data in the 20th century and the identified states are undertaken to better understand the hydroclimatic connections within the basin as well as important teleconnections that influence water supply. Compositing techniques are used to identify atmospheric circulation patterns associated with identified states of streamflow. The grouping of such synoptic patterns and their frequency are then examined. Sliding time-window correlation analysis and cross-wavelet spectral analysis are performed to establish the synchronicity of basin flows to the identified synoptic and teleconnection patterns. The Missouri River Basin (MRB) is examined in this study, both as a means of better understanding the synoptic climate controls in this important watershed and as a case study for the techniques developed here. Initial wavelet analyses of reconstructed streamflow at major gauges in the MRB show multidecadal cycles in regime behavior.

  7. Spatial patterns of sea surface temperature influences on East African precipitation as revealed by empirical orthogonal teleconnections

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    Tim eAppelhans

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available East Africa is characterized by a rather dry annual precipitation climatology with two distinct rainy seasons. In order to investigate sea surface temperature driven precipitation anomalies for the region we use the algorithm of empirical orthogonal teleconnection analysis as a data mining tool. We investigate the entire East African domain as well as 5 smaller sub-regions mainly located in areas of mountainous terrain. In searching for influential sea surface temperature patterns we do not focus any particular season or oceanic region. Furthermore, we investigate different time lags from zero to twelve months. The strongest influence is identified for the immediate (i.e. non-lagged influences of the Indian Ocean in close vicinity to the East African coast. None of the most important modes are located in the tropical Pacific Ocean, though the region is sometimes coupled with the Indian Ocean basin. Furthermore, we identify a region in the southern Indian Ocean around the Kerguelen Plateau which has not yet been reported in the literature with regard to precipitation modulation in East Africa. Finally, it is observed that not all regions in East Africa are equally influenced by the identified patterns.

  8. Predicting summer monsoon of Bhutan based on SST and teleconnection indices

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    Dorji, Singay; Herath, Srikantha; Mishra, Binaya Kumar; Chophel, Ugyen

    2018-02-01

    The paper uses a statistical method of predicting summer monsoon over Bhutan using the ocean-atmospheric circulation variables of sea surface temperature (SST), mean sea-level pressure (MSLP), and selected teleconnection indices. The predictors are selected based on the correlation. They are the SST and MSLP of the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea and the MSLP of Bangladesh and northeast India. The Northern Hemisphere teleconnections of East Atlantic Pattern (EA), West Pacific Pattern (WP), Pacific/North American Pattern, and East Atlantic/West Russia Pattern (EA/WR). The rainfall station data are grouped into two regions with principal components analysis and Ward's hierarchical clustering algorithm. A support vector machine for regression model is proposed to predict the monsoon. The model shows improved skills over traditional linear regression. The model was able to predict the summer monsoon for the test data from 2011 to 2015 with a total monthly root mean squared error of 112 mm for region A and 33 mm for region B. Model could also forecast the 2016 monsoon of the South Asia Monsoon Outlook of World Meteorological Organization (WMO) for Bhutan. The reliance on agriculture and hydropower economy makes the prediction of summer monsoon highly valuable information for farmers and various other sectors. The proposed method can predict summer monsoon for operational forecasting.

  9. Climate Teleconnections and Recent Patterns of Human and Animal Disease Outbreaks

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    Anyamba, Assaf; Linthicum, Kenneth J.; Small, Jennifer L.; Collins, Katherine M.; Tucker, Compton J.; Pak, Edwin W.; Britch, Seth C.; Eastman, James Ronald; Pinzon, Jorge E.; Russell, Kevin L.

    2011-01-01

    Recent clusters of outbreaks of mosquito-borne diseases (Rift Valley fever and chikungunya) in Africa and parts of the Indian Ocean islands illustrate how interannual climate variability influences the changing risk patterns of disease outbreaks. Extremes in rainfall (drought and flood) during the period 2004 - 2009 have privileged different disease vectors. Chikungunya outbreaks occurred during the severe drought from late 2004 to 2006 over coastal East Africa and the western Indian Ocean islands and in the later years India and Southeast Asia. The chikungunya pandemic was caused by a Central/East African genotype that appears to have been precipitated and then enhanced by global-scale and regional climate conditions in these regions. Outbreaks of Rift Valley fever occurred following excessive rainfall period from late 2006 to late 2007 in East Africa and Sudan, and then in 2008 - 2009 in Southern Africa. The shift in the outbreak patterns of Rift Valley fever from East Africa to Southern Africa followed a transition of the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomena from the warm El Nino phase (2006-2007) to the cold La Nina phase (2007-2009) and associated patterns of variability in the greater Indian Ocean basin that result in the displacement of the centres of above normal rainfall from Eastern to Southern Africa. Understanding the background patterns of climate variability both at global and regional scale and their impacts on ecological drivers of vector borne-diseases is critical in long-range planning of appropriate response and mitigation measures.

  10. Ocean-Atmosphere Interactions Modulate Irrigation's Climate Impacts

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    Krakauer, Nir Y.; Puma, Michael J.; Cook, Benjamin I.; Gentine, Pierre; Nazarenko, Larissa

    2016-01-01

    Numerous studies have focused on the local and regional climate effects of irrigated agriculture and other land cover and land use change (LCLUC) phenomena, but there are few studies on the role of ocean- atmosphere interaction in modulating irrigation climate impacts. Here, we compare simulations with and without interactive sea surface temperatures of the equilibrium effect on climate of contemporary (year 2000) irrigation geographic extent and intensity. We find that ocean-atmosphere interaction does impact the magnitude of global-mean and spatially varying climate impacts, greatly increasing their global reach. Local climate effects in the irrigated regions remain broadly similar, while non-local effects, particularly over the oceans, tend to be larger. The interaction amplifies irrigation-driven standing wave patterns in the tropics and mid-latitudes in our simulations, approximately doubling the global-mean amplitude of surface temperature changes due to irrigation. The fractions of global area experiencing significant annual-mean surface air temperature and precipitation change also approximately double with ocean-atmosphere interaction. Subject to confirmation with other models, these findings imply that LCLUC is an important contributor to climate change even in remote areas such as the Southern Ocean, and that attribution studies should include interactive oceans and need to consider LCLUC, including irrigation, as a truly global forcing that affects climate and the water cycle over ocean as well as land areas.

  11. Ocean-Atmosphere Interaction in Climate Changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, W. Timothy

    1999-01-01

    The diagram, which attests the El Nino teleconnection observed by the NASA Scatterometer (NSCAT) in 1997, is an example of the results of our research in air-sea interaction - the core component of our three-part contribution to the Climate Variability Program. We have established an interplay among scientific research, which turns spacebased data into knowledge, a push in instrument technology, which improves observations of climate variability, and an information system, which produces and disseminates new data to support our scientific research. Timothy Liu led the proposal for advanced technology, in response to the NASA Post-2002 Request for Information. The sensor was identified as a possible mission for continuous ocean surface wind measurement at higher spatial resolution, and with the unique capability to measure ocean surface salinity. He is participating in the Instrument Incubator Program to improve the antenna technology, and is initiating a study to integrate the concept on Japanese missions. He and his collaborators have set up a system to produce and disseminate high level (gridded) ocean surface wind/stress data from NSCAT and European missions. The data system is being expanded to produce real-time gridded ocean surface winds from Quikscat, and precipitation and evaporation from the Tropical Rain Measuring Mission. It will form the basis for a spacebased data analysis system which will include momentum, heat and water fluxes. The study on 1997 El Nino teleconnection illustrates our interdisciplinary and multisensor approach to study climate variability. The diagram shows that the collapse of trade wind and the westerly wind anomalies in the central equatorial Pacific led to the equatorial ocean warming. The equatorial wind anomalies are connected to the anomalous cyclonic wind pattern in the northeast Pacific. The anomalous warming along the west coast of the United States is the result of the movement of the pre-existing warm sea surface

  12. Ocean-atmosphere interactions during cyclone Nargis

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Mc; Foltz, G.R.; Lee, T.; Murty, V.S.N.; Ravichandran, M.; Vecchi, G.A.; Vialard, J.; Wiggert, J.D.; Yu, L.

    =UTF-8 Author version: EOS: Trans. Am. Geophys. Union: 90(7); 2009; 53-60; doi:10.1029/2009EO070001 Ocean-Atmosphere Interactions During Cyclone Nargis M. J. McPhaden (1) , G. R. Foltz (2) , T. Lee (3) , V. S. N. Murty (4) , M... Moored Array for African-Asian-Australian Monsoon Analysis and Prediction; McPhaden et al, 2008) designed to complement a constellation of earth observing satellites for key environmental parameters such as winds, sea surface temperature (SST), and sea...

  13. Teleconnection between sea ice in the Barents Sea in June and the Silk Road, Pacific-Japan and East Asian rainfall patterns in August

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Shengping; Gao, Yongqi; Furevik, Tore; Wang, Huijun; Li, Fei

    2018-01-01

    In contrast to previous studies that have tended to focus on the influence of the total Arctic sea-ice cover on the East Asian summer tripole rainfall pattern, the present study identifies the Barents Sea as the key region where the June sea-ice variability exerts the most significant impacts on the East Asian August tripole rainfall pattern, and explores the teleconnection mechanisms involved. The results reveal that a reduction in June sea ice excites anomalous upward air motion due to strong near-surface thermal forcing, which further triggers a meridional overturning wave-like pattern extending to midlatitudes. Anomalous downward motion therefore forms over the Caspian Sea, which in turn induces zonally oriented overturning circulation along the subtropical jet stream, exhibiting the east-west Rossby wave train known as the Silk Road pattern. It is suggested that the Bonin high, a subtropical anticyclone predominant near South Korea, shows a significant anomaly due to the eastward extension of the Silk Road pattern to East Asia. As a possible descending branch of the Hadley cell, the Bonin high anomaly ultimately triggers a meridional overturning, establishing the Pacific-Japan pattern. This in turn induces an anomalous anticyclone and cyclone pair over East Asia, and a tripole vertical convection anomaly meridionally oriented over East Asia. Consequently, a tripole rainfall anomaly pattern is observed over East Asia. Results from numerical experiments using version 5 of the Community Atmosphere Model support the interpretation of this chain of events.

  14. The Mass Balance of Glacier No. 1 at the Headwaters of the Urumqi River in Relation to Northern Hemisphere Teleconnection Patterns

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Feifei Yuan

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Most small glaciers in the world have significantly decreased their volume during the last century, which has caused water shortage problems. Glacier No. 1, at the headwaters of the Urumqi River, Tianshan, China, has been monitored since 1959 and similarly has experienced significant mass and volume losses over the last few decades. Thus, we examined the trend and potential abrupt changes of the mass balance of Glacier No. 1. Principal component analysis and singular value decomposition were used to find significant relations between the mass balance of Glacier No. 1 and Northern Hemisphere teleconnection patterns using climate indices. It was found that the mass balance of Glacier No. 1 had a significantly decreasing trend corresponding to −14.5 mm/year from 1959 to 2010. A change point was detected in 1997 with 99% confidence level. Two time periods with different mass balances were identified as 1959–1996 and 1997–2010. The mass balance for the first period was −136.4 mm/year and up to −663.9 mm/year for the second period. The mass balance of Glacier No. 1 is positively related to the Scandinavian Pattern (SCA, and negatively related to the East Atlantic Pattern (EA. These relationships are useful in better understanding the interaction between glacier mass balance and climate variability.

  15. Comprehensive Ocean - Atmosphere Data Set (COADS) LMRF Arctic Subset

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Comprehensive Ocean - Atmosphere Data Set (COADS) LMRF Arctic subset contains marine surface weather reports for the region north of 65 degrees N from ships,...

  16. The Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS)

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Hodur, Richard M; Hong, Xiaodong; Doyle, James D; Pullen, Julie; Cummings, James; Martin, Paul; Rennick, Mary Alice

    2002-01-01

    ... of the Couple Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS). The goal of this modeling project is to gain predictive skill in simulating the ocean and atmosphere at high resolution on time-scales of hours to several days...

  17. ENSO Atmospheric Teleconnections and Their Response to Greenhouse Gas Forcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yeh, Sang-Wook; Cai, Wenju; Min, Seung-Ki; McPhaden, Michael J.; Dommenget, Dietmar; Dewitte, Boris; Collins, Matthew; Ashok, Karumuri; An, Soon-Il; Yim, Bo-Young; Kug, Jong-Seong

    2018-03-01

    El Niño and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most prominent year-to-year climate fluctuation on Earth, alternating between anomalously warm (El Niño) and cold (La Niña) sea surface temperature (SST) conditions in the tropical Pacific. ENSO exerts its impacts on remote regions of the globe through atmospheric teleconnections, affecting extreme weather events worldwide. However, these teleconnections are inherently nonlinear and sensitive to ENSO SST anomaly patterns and amplitudes. In addition, teleconnections are modulated by variability in the oceanic and atmopsheric mean state outside the tropics and by land and sea ice extent. The character of ENSO as well as the ocean mean state have changed since the 1990s, which might be due to either natural variability or anthropogenic forcing, or their combined influences. This has resulted in changes in ENSO atmospheric teleconnections in terms of precipitation and temperature in various parts of the globe. In addition, changes in ENSO teleconnection patterns have affected their predictability and the statistics of extreme events. However, the short observational record does not allow us to clearly distinguish which changes are robust and which are not. Climate models suggest that ENSO teleconnections will change because the mean atmospheric circulation will change due to anthropogenic forcing in the 21st century, which is independent of whether ENSO properties change or not. However, future ENSO teleconnection changes do not currently show strong intermodel agreement from region to region, highlighting the importance of identifying factors that affect uncertainty in future model projections.

  18. Mechanism of climate change over South America during the LGM in coupled Ocean- Atmosphere model simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khodri, M.

    2006-12-01

    On a regional perspective the database of proxy information for South America during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) shows large and regionally extensive changes of the mean climate and vegetation types over the Amazon basin. In some instances these changes were associated with decrease in the mean precipitation amount (and most probably in moist deep convection) over the Amazonian and South East Brazil monsoon regions and wetter mean conditions in present day drought-prone regions such as Northeast of Brazil (Nordeste). These changes have been interpreted as local responses to shift in the mean position and intensity of the Atlantic ITCZ due to glacial extratropical forcings or to changes in the South American Monsoons. However there are still two issues is the path to further understand the mechanism of climate change over South America during the LGM. The first is incomplete knowledge in both the modeling and observational communities of how the moist deep convection over the Amazonian region respond to glacial boundary condition and how this changes might interact with the meridional shift of rainfall over Nordeste and Atlantic Ocean. The second is our understanding of how ocean-atmosphere changes that do occur in the tropical Pacific region influence the climate of the remainder of the planet and on a regional way over South America. Using PMIP-2 coupled Ocean-Atmosphere simulations for LGM and comparison to paleodata we show that hydrological cycle changes over the Amazon basin might be independent of their Atlantic Ocean counterpart, while teleconnections with Pacific Ocean might have played a significant role in the observed changes over tropical South America.

  19. Sea level anomaly in the North Atlantic and seas around Europe: Long-term variability and response to North Atlantic teleconnection patterns.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iglesias, Isabel; Lorenzo, M Nieves; Lázaro, Clara; Fernandes, M Joana; Bastos, Luísa

    2017-12-31

    Sea level anomaly (SLA), provided globally by satellite altimetry, is considered a valuable proxy for detecting long-term changes of the global ocean, as well as short-term and annual variations. In this manuscript, monthly sea level anomaly grids for the period 1993-2013 are used to characterise the North Atlantic Ocean variability at inter-annual timescales and its response to the North Atlantic main patterns of atmospheric circulation variability (North Atlantic Oscillation, Eastern Atlantic, Eastern Atlantic/Western Russia, Scandinavian and Polar/Eurasia) and main driven factors as sea level pressure, sea surface temperature and wind fields. SLA variability and long-term trends are analysed for the North Atlantic Ocean and several sub-regions (North, Baltic and Mediterranean and Black seas, Bay of Biscay extended to the west coast of the Iberian Peninsula, and the northern North Atlantic Ocean), depicting the SLA fluctuations at basin and sub-basin scales, aiming at representing the regions of maximum sea level variability. A significant correlation between SLA and the different phases of the teleconnection patterns due to the generated winds, sea level pressure and sea surface temperature anomalies, with a strong variability on temporal and spatial scales, has been identified. Long-term analysis reveals the existence of non-stationary inter-annual SLA fluctuations in terms of the temporal scale. Spectral density analysis has shown the existence of long-period signals in the SLA inter-annual component, with periods of ~10, 5, 4 and 2years, depending on the analysed sub-region. Also, a non-uniform increase in sea level since 1993 is identified for all sub-regions, with trend values between 2.05mm/year, for the Bay of Biscay region, and 3.98mm/year for the Baltic Sea (no GIA correction considered). The obtained results demonstrated a strong link between the atmospheric patterns and SLA, as well as strong long-period fluctuations of this variable in spatial and

  20. The impact of monthly variation of the Pacific–North America (PNA teleconnection pattern on wintertime surface-layer aerosol concentrations in the United States

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Feng

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available The Pacific–North America teleconnection (PNA is the leading general circulation pattern in the troposphere over the region of North Pacific to North America during wintertime. This study examined the impacts of monthly variations of the PNA phase (positive or negative phase on wintertime surface-layer aerosol concentrations in the United States (US by analyzing observations during 1999–2013 from the Air Quality System of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA-AQS and the model results for 1986–2006 from the global three-dimensional Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem. The composite analyses on the EPA-AQS observations over 1999–2013 showed that the average concentrations of PM2.5, sulfate, nitrate, ammonium, organic carbon, and black carbon aerosols over the US were higher in the PNA positive phases (25 % of the winter months examined, and this fraction of months had the highest positive PNA index values than in the PNA negative phases (25 % of the winter months examined, and this fraction of months had the highest negative PNA index values by 1.0 µg m−3 (8.7 %, 0.01 µg m−3 (0.5 %, 0.3 µg m−3 (29.1 %, 0.1 µg m−3 (11.9 %, 0.6 µg m−3 (13.5 %, and 0.2 µg m−3 (27.8 %, respectively. The simulated geographical patterns of the differences in concentrations of all aerosol species between the PNA positive and negative phases were similar to observations. Based on the GEOS-Chem simulation, the pattern correlation coefficients were calculated to show the impacts of PNA-induced variations in meteorological fields on aerosol concentrations. The PNA phase was found (i to influence sulfate concentrations mainly through changes in planetary boundary layer height (PBLH, precipitation (PR, and temperature; (ii to influence nitrate concentrations mainly through changes in temperature; and (iii to influence concentrations of ammonium, organic carbon, and black

  1. The Space-Time Variation of Global Crop Yields, Detecting Simultaneous Outliers and Identifying the Teleconnections with Climatic Patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Najafi, E.; Devineni, N.; Pal, I.; Khanbilvardi, R.

    2017-12-01

    An understanding of the climate factors that influence the space-time variability of crop yields is important for food security purposes and can help us predict global food availability. In this study, we address how the crop yield trends of countries globally were related to each other during the last several decades and the main climatic variables that triggered high/low crop yields simultaneously across the world. Robust Principal Component Analysis (rPCA) is used to identify the primary modes of variation in wheat, maize, sorghum, rice, soybeans, and barley yields. Relations between these modes of variability and important climatic variables, especially anomalous sea surface temperature (SSTa), are examined from 1964 to 2010. rPCA is also used to identify simultaneous outliers in each year, i.e. systematic high/low crop yields across the globe. The results demonstrated spatiotemporal patterns of these crop yields and the climate-related events that caused them as well as the connection of outliers with weather extremes. We find that among climatic variables, SST has had the most impact on creating simultaneous crop yields variability and yield outliers in many countries. An understanding of this phenomenon can benefit global crop trade networks.

  2. Land-Ocean-Atmospheric Coupling Associated with Earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prasad, A. K.; Singh, R. P.; Kumar, S.; Cervone, G.; Kafatos, M.; Zlotnicki, J.

    2007-12-01

    Earthquakes are well known to occur along the plate boundaries and also on the stable shield. The recent studies have shown existence of strong coupling between land-ocean-atmospheric parameters associated with the earthquakes. We have carried out detailed analysis of multi sensor data (optical and microwave remote) to show existence of strong coupling between land-ocean-atmospheric parameters associated with the earthquakes with focal depth up to 30 km and magnitude greater than 5.5. Complimentary nature of various land, ocean and atmospheric parameters will be demonstrated in getting an early warning information about an impending earthquake.

  3. Oceanic Channel of the IOD-ENSO teleconnection over the Indo-Pacific Ocean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuan, Dongliang; Wang, Jing; Zhao, Xia; Zhou, Hui; Xu, Tengfei; Xu, Peng

    2017-04-01

    The lag correlations of observations and model simulated data that participate the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase-5 (CMIP5) are used to study the precursory teleconnection between the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and the Pacific ENSO one year later through the Indonesian seas. The results suggest that Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) play an important role in the IOD-ENSO teleconnection. Numerical simulations using a hierarchy of ocean models and climate coupled models have shown that the interannual sea level depressions in the southeastern Indian Ocean during IOD force enhanced ITF to transport warm water of the Pacific warm pool to the Indian Ocean, producing cold subsurface temperature anomalies, which propagate to the eastern equatorial Pacific and induce significant coupled ocean-atmosphere evolution. The teleconnection is found to have decadal variability. Similar decadal variability has also been identified in the historical simulations of the CMIP5 models. The dynamics of the inter-basin teleconnection during the positive phases of the decadal variability are diagnosed to be the interannual variations of the ITF associated with the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). During the negative phases, the thermocline in the eastern equatorial Pacific is anomalously deeper so that the sea surface temperature anomalies in the cold tongue are not sensitive to the thermocline depth changes. The IOD-ENSO teleconnection is found not affected significantly by the anthropogenic forcing.

  4. Teleconnected food supply shocks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bren d'Amour, Christopher; Wenz, Leonie; Kalkuhl, Matthias; Steckel, Jan Christoph; Creutzig, Felix

    2016-03-01

    The 2008-2010 food crisis might have been a harbinger of fundamental climate-induced food crises with geopolitical implications. Heat-wave-induced yield losses in Russia and resulting export restrictions led to increases in market prices for wheat across the Middle East, likely contributing to the Arab Spring. With ongoing climate change, temperatures and temperature variability will rise, leading to higher uncertainty in yields for major nutritional crops. Here we investigate which countries are most vulnerable to teleconnected supply-shocks, i.e. where diets strongly rely on the import of wheat, maize, or rice, and where a large share of the population is living in poverty. We find that the Middle East is most sensitive to teleconnected supply shocks in wheat, Central America to supply shocks in maize, and Western Africa to supply shocks in rice. Weighing with poverty levels, Sub-Saharan Africa is most affected. Altogether, a simultaneous 10% reduction in exports of wheat, rice, and maize would reduce caloric intake of 55 million people living in poverty by about 5%. Export bans in major producing regions would put up to 200 million people below the poverty line at risk, 90% of which live in Sub-Saharan Africa. Our results suggest that a region-specific combination of national increases in agricultural productivity and diversification of trade partners and diets can effectively decrease future food security risks.

  5. Impact of the basic state and MJO representation on MJO Pacific teleconnections in GCMs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henderson, S. A.; Maloney, E. D.; Son, S. W.

    2017-12-01

    Teleconnection patterns induced by the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) are known to significantly alter extratropical weather and climate patterns. However, accurate MJO representation has been difficult for many General Circulation Models (GCMs). Furthermore, many GCMs contain large basic state biases. These issues present challenges to the simulation of MJO teleconnections and, in turn, their associated extratropical impacts. This study examines the impacts of basic state quality and MJO representation on the quality of MJO teleconnection patterns in GCMs from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Results suggest that GCMs assessed to have a good MJO but with large basic state biases have similarly low skill in reproducing MJO teleconnections as GCMs with poor MJO representation. In the good MJO models examined, poor teleconnection quality is associated with large errors in the zonal extent of the Pacific subtropical jet. Whereas the horizontal structure of MJO heating in the Indo-Pacific region is found to have modest impacts on the teleconnection patterns, results suggest that MJO heating east of the dateline can alter the teleconnection pattern characteristics over North America. These findings suggest that in order to accurately simulate the MJO teleconnection patterns and associated extratropical impacts, both the MJO and the basic state must be well represented.

  6. Ocean-atmosphere coupled climate model development at SAWS: description and diagnosis

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Beraki, A

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper introduces the South African Weather Service's coupled ocean-atmosphere model. The paper also demonstrates the advances made in configuring an operational coupled ocean-atmosphere model in South Africa for seasonal forecast production...

  7. Global Warming Attenuates the Tropical Atlantic-Pacific Teleconnection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jia, Fan; Wu, Lixin; Gan, Bolan; Cai, Wenju

    2016-01-01

    Changes in global sea surface temperature (SST) since the end of last century display a pattern of widespread warming intercepted by cooling in the eastern equatorial Pacific and western coasts of the American continent. Studies have suggested that the cooling in the eastern equatorial Pacific may be partly induced by warming in the North Atlantic. However, it remains unknown how stable this inter-tropical teleconnection will be under global warming. Here we show that the inter-tropical teleconnection from the tropical Atlantic to Pacific weakens substantially as the CO2 concentration increases. This reduced impact is related to the El Niño-like warming of the tropical Pacific mean state, which leads to limited seasonal migration of the Pacific inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and weakened ocean heat transport. A fast decay of the tropical Atlantic SST anomalies in a warmer climate also contributes to the weakened teleconnection. Our study suggests that as greenhouse warming continues, the trend in the tropical Pacific as well as the development of ENSO will be less frequently interrupted by the Atlantic because of this attenuation. The weakened teleconnection is also supported by CMIP5 models, although only a few of these models can capture this inter-tropical teleconnection. PMID:26838053

  8. Global Warming Attenuates the Tropical Atlantic-Pacific Teleconnection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jia, Fan; Wu, Lixin; Gan, Bolan; Cai, Wenju

    2016-02-03

    Changes in global sea surface temperature (SST) since the end of last century display a pattern of widespread warming intercepted by cooling in the eastern equatorial Pacific and western coasts of the American continent. Studies have suggested that the cooling in the eastern equatorial Pacific may be partly induced by warming in the North Atlantic. However, it remains unknown how stable this inter-tropical teleconnection will be under global warming. Here we show that the inter-tropical teleconnection from the tropical Atlantic to Pacific weakens substantially as the CO2 concentration increases. This reduced impact is related to the El Niño-like warming of the tropical Pacific mean state, which leads to limited seasonal migration of the Pacific inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and weakened ocean heat transport. A fast decay of the tropical Atlantic SST anomalies in a warmer climate also contributes to the weakened teleconnection. Our study suggests that as greenhouse warming continues, the trend in the tropical Pacific as well as the development of ENSO will be less frequently interrupted by the Atlantic because of this attenuation. The weakened teleconnection is also supported by CMIP5 models, although only a few of these models can capture this inter-tropical teleconnection.

  9. Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Monthly North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) teleconnection index

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Monthly tabulated index of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) teleconnection pattern. The data spans the period 1950 to present. The index is derived from a...

  10. Atmospheric teleconnection influence on North American land surface phenology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dannenberg, Matthew P.; Wise, Erika K.; Janko, Mark; Hwang, Taehee; Kolby Smith, W.

    2018-03-01

    Short-term forecasts of vegetation activity are currently not well constrained due largely to our lack of understanding of coupled climate-vegetation dynamics mediated by complex interactions between atmospheric teleconnection patterns. Using ecoregion-scale estimates of North American vegetation activity inferred from remote sensing (1982-2015), we examined seasonal and spatial relationships between land surface phenology and the atmospheric components of five teleconnection patterns over the tropical Pacific, north Pacific, and north Atlantic. Using a set of regression experiments, we also tested for interactions among these teleconnection patterns and assessed predictability of vegetation activity solely based on knowledge of atmospheric teleconnection indices. Autumn-to-winter composites of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) were strongly correlated with start of growing season timing, especially in the Pacific Northwest. The two leading modes of north Pacific variability (the Pacific-North American, PNA, and West Pacific patterns) were significantly correlated with start of growing season timing across much of southern Canada and the upper Great Lakes. Regression models based on these Pacific teleconnections were skillful predictors of spring phenology across an east-west swath of temperate and boreal North America, between 40°N-60°N. While the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) was not strongly correlated with start of growing season timing on its own, we found compelling evidence of widespread NAO-SOI and NAO-PNA interaction effects. These results suggest that knowledge of atmospheric conditions over the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans increases the predictability of North American spring phenology. A more robust consideration of the complexity of the atmospheric circulation system, including interactions across multiple ocean basins, is an important step towards accurate forecasts of vegetation activity.

  11. Review of Tropical-Extratropical Teleconnections on Intraseasonal Time Scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stan, Cristiana; Straus, David M.; Frederiksen, Jorgen S.; Lin, Hai; Maloney, Eric D.; Schumacher, Courtney

    2017-12-01

    The interactions and teleconnections between the tropical and midlatitude regions on intraseasonal time scales are an important modulator of tropical and extratropical circulation anomalies and their associated weather patterns. These interactions arise due to the impact of the tropics on the extratropics, the impact of the midlatitudes on the tropics, and two-way interactions between the regions. Observational evidence, as well as theoretical studies with models of complexity ranging from the linear barotropic framework to intricate Earth system models, suggest the involvement of a myriad of processes and mechanisms in generating and maintaining these interconnections. At this stage, our understanding of these teleconnections is primarily a collection of concepts; a comprehensive theoretical framework has yet to be established. These intraseasonal teleconnections are increasingly recognized as an untapped source of potential subseasonal predictability. However, the complexity and diversity of mechanisms associated with these teleconnections, along with the lack of a conceptual framework to relate them, prevent this potential predictability from being translated into realized forecast skill. This review synthesizes our progress in understanding the observed characteristics of intraseasonal tropical-extratropical interactions and their associated mechanisms, identifies the significant gaps in this understanding, and recommends new research endeavors to address the remaining challenges.

  12. Some sensitivities of a coupled ocean-atmosphere GCM

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stockdale, T.; Latif, M.; Burgers, G.; Wolff, J.O.

    1994-01-01

    A coupled ocean-atmosphere GCM is being developed for use in seasonal forecasting. As part of the development work, a number of experiments have been made to explore some of the sensitivities of the coupled model system. The overall heat balance of the tropics is found to be very sensitive to convective cloud cover. Adjusting the cloud parameterization to produce stable behaviour of the coupled model also leads to better agreement between model radiative fluxes and satellite data. A further sensitivity is seen to changes in low-level marine stratus, which is under-represented in the initial model experiments. An increase in this cloud in the coupled model produces a small improvement in both the global mean state and the phase of the east Pacific annual cycle. The computational expense of investigating such small changes is emphasized. An indication of model sensitivity to surface albedo is also presented. The sensitivity of the coupled GCM to initial conditions is investigated. The model is very sensitive, with tiny perturbations able to determine El Nino or non-El Nino conditions just six months later. This large sensitivity may be related to the relatively weak amplitude of the model ENSO cycle. (orig.)

  13. Monte Carlo climate change forecasts with a global coupled ocean-atmosphere model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cubasch, U.; Santer, B.D.; Hegerl, G.; Hoeck, H.; Maier-Reimer, E.; Mikolajwicz, U.; Stoessel, A.; Voss, R.

    1992-01-01

    The Monte Carlo approach, which has increasingly been used during the last decade in the field of extended range weather forecasting, has been applied for climate change experiments. Four integrations with a global coupled ocean-atmosphere model have been started from different initial conditions, but with the same greenhouse gas forcing according to the IPCC scenario A. All experiments have been run for a period of 50 years. The results indicate that the time evolution of the global mean warming depends strongly on the initial state of the climate system. It can vary between 6 and 31 years. The Monte Carlo approach delivers information about both the mean response and the statistical significance of the response. While the individual members of the ensemble show a considerable variation in the climate change pattern of temperature after 50 years, the ensemble mean climate change pattern closely resembles the pattern obtained in a 100 year integration and is, at least over most of the land areas, statistically significant. The ensemble averaged sea-level change due to thermal expansion is significant in the global mean and locally over wide regions of the Pacific. The hydrological cycle is also significantly enhanced in the global mean, but locally the changes in precipitation and soil moisture are masked by the variability of the experiments. (orig.)

  14. Urban land teleconnections and sustainability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seto, Karen C.; Reenberg, Anette; Boone, Christopher G.; Fragkias, Michail; Haase, Dagmar; Langanke, Tobias; Marcotullio, Peter; Munroe, Darla K.; Olah, Branislav; Simon, David

    2012-01-01

    This paper introduces urban land teleconnections as a conceptual framework that explicitly links land changes to underlying urbanization dynamics. We illustrate how three key themes that are currently addressed separately in the urban sustainability and land change literatures can lead to incorrect conclusions and misleading results when they are not examined jointly: the traditional system of land classification that is based on discrete categories and reinforces the false idea of a rural–urban dichotomy; the spatial quantification of land change that is based on place-based relationships, ignoring the connections between distant places, especially between urban functions and rural land uses; and the implicit assumptions about path dependency and sequential land changes that underlie current conceptualizations of land transitions. We then examine several environmental “grand challenges” and discuss how urban land teleconnections could help research communities frame scientific inquiries. Finally, we point to existing analytical approaches that can be used to advance development and application of the concept. PMID:22550174

  15. GFDL CM2.1 Global Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Model Water ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    First page Back Continue Last page Overview Graphics. GFDL CM2.1 Global Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Model Water Hosing Experiment with 1 Sv equivalent of Freshening Control Expt: 100 yrs After Hosing: 300 yrs.

  16. International Comprehensive Ocean Atmosphere Data Set (ICOADS) in Near-Real Time (NRT)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set (ICOADS) Near-Real-Time (NRT) product is an extension of the official ICOADS dataset with preliminary...

  17. International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set (ICOADS) with Enhanced Trimming, Release 3

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This dataset contains the latest official release of International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set (ICOADS) with Enhanced Trimming, provided in a common...

  18. International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set (ICOADS) Release 3.0 - Monthly Summary Groups (MSG)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This dataset, the International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set (ICOADS), is the most widely-used freely available collection of surface marine observations,...

  19. International Comprehensive Ocean Atmosphere Data Set (ICOADS) And NCEI Global Marine Observations

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — International Comprehensive Ocean Atmosphere Data Set (ICOADS) consists of digital data set DSI-1173, archived at the National Center for Environmental Information...

  20. South African seasonal rainfall prediction performance by a coupled ocean-atmosphere model

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Landman, WA

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Evidence is presented that coupled ocean-atmosphere models can already outscore computationally less expensive atmospheric models. However, if the atmospheric models are forced with highly skillful SST predictions, they may still be a very strong...

  1. Teleconnection Paths via Climate Network Direct Link Detection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Dong; Gozolchiani, Avi; Ashkenazy, Yosef; Havlin, Shlomo

    2015-12-31

    Teleconnections describe remote connections (typically thousands of kilometers) of the climate system. These are of great importance in climate dynamics as they reflect the transportation of energy and climate change on global scales (like the El Niño phenomenon). Yet, the path of influence propagation between such remote regions, and weighting associated with different paths, are only partially known. Here we propose a systematic climate network approach to find and quantify the optimal paths between remotely distant interacting locations. Specifically, we separate the correlations between two grid points into direct and indirect components, where the optimal path is found based on a minimal total cost function of the direct links. We demonstrate our method using near surface air temperature reanalysis data, on identifying cross-latitude teleconnections and their corresponding optimal paths. The proposed method may be used to quantify and improve our understanding regarding the emergence of climate patterns on global scales.

  2. Skill Assessment of a Spectral Ocean-Atmosphere Radiative Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gregg, Watson, W.; Casey, Nancy W.

    2009-01-01

    Ocean phytoplankton, detrital material, and water absorb and scatter light spectrally. The Ocean- Atmosphere Spectral Irradiance Model (OASIM) is intended to provide surface irradiance over the oceans with sufficient spectral resolution to support ocean ecology, biogeochemistry, and heat exchange investigations, and of sufficient duration to support inter-annual and decadal investigations. OASIM total surface irradiance (integrated 200 nm to 4 microns) was compared to in situ data and three publicly available global data products at monthly 1-degree resolution. OASIM spectrally-integrated surface irradiance had root mean square (RMS) difference= 20.1 W/sq m (about 11%), bias=1.6 W/sq m (about 0.8%), regression slope= 1.01 and correlation coefficient= 0.89, when compared to 2322 in situ observations. OASIM had the lowest bias of any of the global data products evaluated (ISCCP-FD, NCEP, and ISLSCP 11), and the best slope (nearest to unity). It had the second best RMS, and the third best correlation coefficient. OASIM total surface irradiance compared well with ISCCP-FD (RMS= 20.7 W/sq m; bias=-11.4 W/sq m, r=0.98) and ISLSCP II (RMS =25.2 W/sq m; bias= -13.8 W/sq m; r=0.97), but less well with NCEP (RMS =43.0 W/sq m ;bias=-22.6 W/sq m; x=0.91). Comparisons of OASIM photosynthetically available radiation (PAR) with PAR derived from SeaWiFS showed low bias (-1.8 mol photons /sq m/d, or about 5%), RMS (4.25 mol photons /sq m/d ' or about 12%), near unity slope (1.03) and high correlation coefficient (0.97). Coupled with previous estimates of clear sky spectral irradiance in OASIM (6.6% RMS at 1 nm resolution), these results suggest that OASIM provides reasonable estimates of surface broadband and spectral irradiance in the oceans, and can support studies on ocean ecosystems, carbon cycling, and heat exchange.

  3. Seasonal streamflow forecast with machine learning and teleconnection indices in the context non-stationary climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haguma, D.; Leconte, R.

    2017-12-01

    Spatial and temporal water resources variability are associated with large-scale pressure and circulation anomalies known as teleconnections that influence the pattern of the atmospheric circulation. Teleconnection indices have been used successfully to forecast streamflow in short term. However, in some watersheds, classical methods cannot establish relationships between seasonal streamflow and teleconnection indices because of weak correlation. In this study, machine learning algorithms have been applied for seasonal streamflow forecast using teleconnection indices. Machine learning offers an alternative to classical methods to address the non-linear relationship between streamflow and teleconnection indices the context non-stationary climate. Two machine learning algorithms, random forest (RF) and support vector machine (SVM), with teleconnection indices associated with North American climatology, have been used to forecast inflows for one and two leading seasons for the Romaine River and Manicouagan River watersheds, located in Quebec, Canada. The indices are Pacific-North America (PNA), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Arctic Oscillation (AO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). The results showed that the machine learning algorithms have an important predictive power for seasonal streamflow for one and two leading seasons. The RF performed better for training and SVM generally have better results with high predictive capability for testing. The RF which is an ensemble method, allowed to assess the uncertainty of the forecast. The integration of teleconnection indices responds to the seasonal forecast of streamflow in the conditions of the non-stationarity the climate, although the teleconnection indices have a weak correlation with streamflow.

  4. Ocean-atmosphere forcing of centennial hydroclimatic variability in the Pacific Northwest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steinman, Byron A.; Abbott, Mark B.; Mann, Michael E.; Ortiz, Joseph D.; Feng, Song; Pompeani, David P.; Stansell, Nathan D.; Anderson, Lesleigh; Finney, Bruce P.; Bird, Broxton W.

    2014-01-01

    Reconstructing centennial timescale hydroclimate variability during the late Holocene is critically important for understanding large-scale patterns of drought and their relationship with climate dynamics. We present sediment oxygen isotope records spanning the last two millennia from 10 lakes, as well as climate model simulations, indicating that the Little Ice Age was dry relative to the Medieval Climate Anomaly in much of the Pacific Northwest of North America. This pattern is consistent with observed associations between the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Northern Annular Mode and drought as well as with proxy-based reconstructions of Pacific ocean-atmosphere variations over the past 1000 years. The large amplitude of centennial variability indicated by the lake data suggests that regional hydroclimate is characterized by longer-term shifts in ENSO-like dynamics, and that an improved understanding of the centennial timescale relationship between external forcing and drought conditions is necessary for projecting future hydroclimatic conditions in western North America.

  5. Bi-decadal variability excited in the coupled ocean-atmosphere system by strong tropical volcanic eruptions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zanchettin, D.; Lorenz, S.; Lohmann, K.; Jungclaus, J.H. [Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Ocean in the Earth System Department, Hamburg (Germany); Timmreck, C. [Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Atmosphere in the Earth System Department, Hamburg (Germany); Graf, H.-F. [University of Cambridge, Centre for Atmospheric Science, Cambridge (United Kingdom); Rubino, A. [Ca' Foscari University, Department of Environmental Sciences, Venice (Italy); Krueger, K. [Leibniz-Institute of Marine Sciences, IFM-GEOMAR, Kiel (Germany)

    2012-07-15

    Decadal and bi-decadal climate responses to tropical strong volcanic eruptions (SVEs) are inspected in an ensemble simulation covering the last millennium based on the Max Planck Institute - Earth system model. An unprecedentedly large collection of pre-industrial SVEs (up to 45) producing a peak annual-average top-of-atmosphere radiative perturbation larger than -1.5 Wm{sup -2} is investigated by composite analysis. Post-eruption oceanic and atmospheric anomalies coherently describe a fluctuation in the coupled ocean-atmosphere system with an average length of 20-25 years. The study provides a new physically consistent theoretical framework to interpret decadal Northern Hemisphere (NH) regional winter climates variability during the last millennium. The fluctuation particularly involves interactions between the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and the North Atlantic gyre circulation closely linked to the state of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation. It is characterized by major distinctive details. Among them, the most prominent are: (a) a strong signal amplification in the Arctic region which allows for a sustained strengthened teleconnection between the North Pacific and the North Atlantic during the first post-eruption decade and which entails important implications from oceanic heat transport and from post-eruption sea ice dynamics, and (b) an anomalous surface winter warming emerging over the Scandinavian/Western Russian region around 10-12 years after a major eruption. The simulated long-term climate response to SVEs depends, to some extent, on background conditions. Consequently, ensemble simulations spanning different phases of background multidecadal and longer climate variability are necessary to constrain the range of possible post-eruption decadal evolution of NH regional winter climates. (orig.)

  6. Teleconnections in a warmer climate: the pliocene perspective

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shukla, Sonali P. [Columbia University, Deptartment of Earth and Environmental Sciences and the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY (United States); Chandler, Mark A.; Sohl, Linda E.; Jonas, Jeff; Lerner, Jean [Columbia University, Center for Climate Systems Research, New York, NY (United States); Rind, David [National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY (United States)

    2011-11-15

    Migrations toward altered sea surface temperature (SST) patterns in the Indo-Pacific region are present in the recent observational record and in future global warming projections. These SSTs are in the form of ''permanent'' El Nino-like (herein termed ''El Padre'') and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)-like patterns. The Early Pliocene Warm Period, which bears similarity to future warming projections, may have also exhibited these Indo-Pacific SST patterns, as suggested by regional terrestrial paleo-climatic data and general circulation model studies. The ability to corroborate this assessment with paleo-data reconstructions is an advantage of the warm Pliocene period that is not afforded by future warming scenarios. Thus, the Pliocene period provides us with a warm-climate perspective and test bed for understanding potential changes to future atmospheric interactions given these altered SST states. This study specifically assesses how atmospheric teleconnections from El Padre/IOD SST patterns are generated and propagate to create the regional climate signals of the Pliocene period, as these signals may be representative of future regional climatic changes as well. To do this, we construct a holistic diagnostic rubric that allows us to examine atmospheric teleconnections, both energetically and dynamically, as produced by a general circulation model. We incorporate KE', a diagnostic adapted from the eddy kinetic energy generation field, to assess the available energy transferred to these teleconnections. Using this methodology, we found that relative to our Modern Control experiments, weaker atmospheric teleconnections prevail under warm Pliocene conditions, although pathways of propagation still appear directed toward the southwestern United States from our tropical Pacific sector forcing. Propagation directly emanating from the Indian Ocean forcing sector appears to be largely blocked, although indirect teleconnective

  7. Teleconnected ocean forcing of Western North American droughts and pluvials during the last millennium

    Science.gov (United States)

    Routson, Cody C.; Woodhouse, Connie A.; Overpeck, Jonathan T.; Betancourt, Julio L.; McKay, Nicholas P.

    2016-01-01

    Western North America (WNA) is rich in hydroclimate reconstructions, yet questions remain about the causes of decadal-to-multidecadal hydroclimate variability. Teleconnection patterns preserved in annually-resolved tree-ring reconstructed drought maps, and anomalies in a global network of proxy sea surface temperature (SST) reconstructions, were used to reassess the evidence linking ocean forcing to WNA hydroclimate variability over the past millennium. Potential forcing mechanisms of the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) and individual drought and pluvial events—including two multidecadal-length MCA pluvials—were evaluated. We show strong teleconnection patterns occurred during the driest (wettest) years within persistent droughts (pluvials), implicating SSTs as a potent hydroclimate forcing mechanism. The role of the SSTs on longer timescales is more complex. Pacific teleconnection patterns show little long-term change, whereas low-resolution SST reconstructions vary over decades to centuries. While weaker than the tropical Pacific teleconnections, North Atlantic teleconnection patterns and SST reconstructions also show links to WNA droughts and pluvials, and may in part account for longer-term WNA hydroclimate changes. Nonetheless, evidence linking WNA hydroclimate to SSTs still remains sparse and nuanced—especially over long-timescales with a broader range of hydroclimatic variability than characterized during the 20th century.

  8. Modes of North Atlantic Decadal Variability in the ECHAM1/LSG Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere General Circulation Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zorita, Eduardo; Frankignoul, Claude

    1997-02-01

    The climate variability in the North Atlantic sector is investigated in a 325-yr integration of the ECHAM1/ LSG coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model. At the interannual timescale, the coupled model behaves realistically and sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies arise as a response of the oceanic surface layer to the stochastic forcing by the atmosphere, with the heat exchanges both generating and damping the SST anomalies. In the ocean interior, the temperature spectra are red up to a period of about 20 years, and substantial decadal fluctuations are found in the upper kilometer or so of the water column. Using extended empirical orthogonal function analysis, two distinct quasi-oscillatory modes of ocean-atmosphere variability are identified, with dominant periods of about 20 and 10 years, respectively. The oceanic changes in both modes reflect the direct forcing by the atmosphere through anomalous air-sea fluxes and Ekman pumping, which after some delay affects the intensity of the subtropical and subpolar gyres. The SST is also strongly modulated by the gyre currents. In the thermocline, the temperature and salinity fluctuations are in phase, as if caused by thermocline displacements, and they have no apparent connection with the thermohaline circulation. The 20-yr mode is the most energetic one; it is easily seen in the thermocline and can be found in SST data, but it is not detected in the atmosphere alone. As there is no evidence of positive ocean-atmosphere feedback, the 20-yr mode primarily reflects the passive response of the ocean to atmospheric fluctuations, which may be in part associated with climate anomalies appearing a few years earlier in the North Pacific. The 10-yr mode is more surface trapped in the ocean. Although the mode is most easily seen in the temperature variations of the upper few hundred meters of the ocean, it is also detected in the atmosphere alone and thus appears to be a coupled ocean-atmosphere mode. In both modes

  9. Discovery of Teleconnections Using Data Mining Technologies in Global Climate Datasets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fan Lin

    2007-10-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we apply data mining technologies to a 100-year global land precipitation dataset and a 100-year Sea Surface Temperature (SST dataset. Some interesting teleconnections are discovered, including well-known patterns and unknown patterns (to the best of our knowledge, such as teleconnections between the abnormally low temperature events of the North Atlantic and floods in Northern Bolivia, abnormally low temperatures of the Venezuelan Coast and floods in Northern Algeria and Tunisia, etc. In particular, we use a high dimensional clustering method and a method that mines episode association rules in event sequences. The former is used to cluster the original time series datasets into higher spatial granularity, and the later is used to discover teleconnection patterns among events sequences that are generated by the clustering method. In order to verify our method, we also do experiments on the SOI index and a 100-year global land precipitation dataset and find many well-known teleconnections, such as teleconnections between SOI lower events and drought events of Eastern Australia, South Africa, and North Brazil; SOI lower events and flood events of the middle-lower reaches of Yangtze River; etc. We also do explorative experiments to help domain scientists discover new knowledge.

  10. The stability of the thermohaline circulation in a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schiller, A. [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Meteorologie, Hamburg (Germany); Mikolajewicz, U. [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Meteorologie, Hamburg (Germany); Voss, R. [Deutsches Klimarechenzentrum (DKRZ), Hamburg (Germany)

    1996-02-01

    The stability of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation against meltwater input is investigated in a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model. The meltwater input to the Labrador Sea is increased linearly for 250 years to a maximum input of 0.625 Sv and then reduced again to 0 (both instantaneously and slowly decreasing over 250 years). The resulting freshening forces a shutdown of the formation of North Atlantic deepwater and a subsequent reversal of the thermohaline circulation of the Atlantic, filling the deep Atlantic with Antarctic bottom water. The change in the overturning pattern causes a drastic reduction of the Atlantic northward heat transport, resulting in a strong cooling with maximum amplitude over the northern North Atlantic and a southward shift of the sea-ice margin in the Atlantic. Due to the increased meridional temperature gradient, the Atlantic intertropical convergence zone is displaced southward and the westerlies in the northern hemisphere gain strength. We identify four main feedbacks affecting the stability of the thermohaline circulation: the change in the overturning circulation of the Atlantic leads to longer residence times of the surface waters in high northern latitudes, which allows them to accumulate more precipitation and runoff from the continents, which results in an increased stability in the North Atlantic.

  11. Analysis of precipitation teleconnections in CMIP models as a measure of model fidelity in simulating precipitation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Langenbrunner, B.; Neelin, J.; Meyerson, J.

    2011-12-01

    The accurate representation of precipitation is a recurring issue in global climate models, especially in the tropics. Poor skill in modeling the variability and climate teleconnections associated with El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) also persisted in the latest Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) campaigns. Observed ENSO precipitation teleconnections provide a standard by which we can judge a given model's ability to reproduce precipitation and dynamic feedback processes originating in the tropical Pacific. Using CMIP3 Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) runs as a baseline, we compare precipitation teleconnections between models and observations, and we evaluate these results against available CMIP5 historical and AMIP runs. Using AMIP simulations restricts evaluation to the atmospheric response, as sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in AMIP are prescribed by observations. We use a rank correlation between ENSO SST indices and precipitation to define teleconnections, since this method is robust to outliers and appropriate for non-Gaussian data. Spatial correlations of the modeled and observed teleconnections are then evaluated. We look at these correlations in regions of strong precipitation teleconnections, including equatorial S. America, the "horseshoe" region in the western tropical Pacific, and southern N. America. For each region and season, we create a "normalized projection" of a given model's teleconnection pattern onto that of the observations, a metric that assesses the quality of regional pattern simulations while rewarding signals of correct sign over the region. Comparing this to an area-averaged (i.e., more generous) metric suggests models do better when restrictions on exact spatial dependence are loosened and conservation constraints apply. Model fidelity in regional measures remains far from perfect, suggesting intrinsic issues with the models' regional sensitivities in moist processes.

  12. Streamflow prediction using multi-site rainfall obtained from hydroclimatic teleconnection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kashid, S. S.; Ghosh, Subimal; Maity, Rajib

    2010-12-01

    SummarySimultaneous variations in weather and climate over widely separated regions are commonly known as "hydroclimatic teleconnections". Rainfall and runoff patterns, over continents, are found to be significantly teleconnected, with large-scale circulation patterns, through such hydroclimatic teleconnections. Though such teleconnections exist in nature, it is very difficult to model them, due to their inherent complexity. Statistical techniques and Artificial Intelligence (AI) tools gain popularity in modeling hydroclimatic teleconnection, based on their ability, in capturing the complicated relationship between the predictors (e.g. sea surface temperatures) and predictand (e.g., rainfall). Genetic Programming is such an AI tool, which is capable of capturing nonlinear relationship, between predictor and predictand, due to its flexible functional structure. In the present study, gridded multi-site weekly rainfall is predicted from El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) indices, Equatorial Indian Ocean Oscillation (EQUINOO) indices, Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) and lag rainfall at grid points, over the catchment, using Genetic Programming. The predicted rainfall is further used in a Genetic Programming model to predict streamflows. The model is applied for weekly forecasting of streamflow in Mahanadi River, India, and satisfactory performance is observed.

  13. Incorporating teleconnection information into reservoir operating policies using Stochastic Dynamic Programming and a Hidden Markov Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turner, Sean; Galelli, Stefano; Wilcox, Karen

    2015-04-01

    Water reservoir systems are often affected by recurring large-scale ocean-atmospheric anomalies, known as teleconnections, that cause prolonged periods of climatological drought. Accurate forecasts of these events -- at lead times in the order of weeks and months -- may enable reservoir operators to take more effective release decisions to improve the performance of their systems. In practice this might mean a more reliable water supply system, a more profitable hydropower plant or a more sustainable environmental release policy. To this end, climate indices, which represent the oscillation of the ocean-atmospheric system, might be gainfully employed within reservoir operating models that adapt the reservoir operation as a function of the climate condition. This study develops a Stochastic Dynamic Programming (SDP) approach that can incorporate climate indices using a Hidden Markov Model. The model simulates the climatic regime as a hidden state following a Markov chain, with the state transitions driven by variation in climatic indices, such as the Southern Oscillation Index. Time series analysis of recorded streamflow data reveals the parameters of separate autoregressive models that describe the inflow to the reservoir under three representative climate states ("normal", "wet", "dry"). These models then define inflow transition probabilities for use in a classic SDP approach. The key advantage of the Hidden Markov Model is that it allows conditioning the operating policy not only on the reservoir storage and the antecedent inflow, but also on the climate condition, thus potentially allowing adaptability to a broader range of climate conditions. In practice, the reservoir operator would effect a water release tailored to a specific climate state based on available teleconnection data and forecasts. The approach is demonstrated on the operation of a realistic, stylised water reservoir with carry-over capacity in South-East Australia. Here teleconnections relating

  14. Indian Ocean and Indian summer monsoon: relationships without ENSO in ocean-atmosphere coupled simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crétat, Julien; Terray, Pascal; Masson, Sébastien; Sooraj, K. P.; Roxy, Mathew Koll

    2017-08-01

    The relationship between the Indian Ocean and the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) and their respective influence over the Indo-Western North Pacific (WNP) region are examined in the absence of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in two partially decoupled global experiments. ENSO is removed by nudging the tropical Pacific simulated sea surface temperature (SST) toward SST climatology from either observations or a fully coupled control run. The control reasonably captures the observed relationships between ENSO, ISM and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). Despite weaker amplitude, IODs do exist in the absence of ENSO and are triggered by a boreal spring ocean-atmosphere coupled mode over the South-East Indian Ocean similar to that found in the presence of ENSO. These pure IODs significantly affect the tropical Indian Ocean throughout boreal summer, inducing a significant modulation of both the local Walker and Hadley cells. This meridional circulation is masked in the presence of ENSO. However, these pure IODs do not significantly influence the Indian subcontinent rainfall despite overestimated SST variability in the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean compared to observations. On the other hand, they promote a late summer cross-equatorial quadrupole rainfall pattern linking the tropical Indian Ocean with the WNP, inducing important zonal shifts of the Walker circulation despite the absence of ENSO. Surprisingly, the interannual ISM rainfall variability is barely modified and the Indian Ocean does not force the monsoon circulation when ENSO is removed. On the contrary, the monsoon circulation significantly forces the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal SSTs, while its connection with the western tropical Indian Ocean is clearly driven by ENSO in our numerical framework. Convection and diabatic heating associated with above-normal ISM induce a strong response over the WNP, even in the absence of ENSO, favoring moisture convergence over India.

  15. Analysing the teleconnection systems affecting the climate of the Carpathian Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kristóf, Erzsébet; Bartholy, Judit; Pongrácz, Rita

    2017-04-01

    Nowadays, the increase of the global average near-surface air temperature is unequivocal. Atmospheric low-frequency variabilities have substantial impacts on climate variables such as air temperature and precipitation. Therefore, assessing their effects is essential to improve global and regional climate model simulations for the 21st century. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is one of the best-known atmospheric teleconnection patterns affecting the Carpathian Basin in Central Europe. Besides NAO, we aim to analyse other interannual-to-decadal teleconnection patterns, which might have significant impacts on the Carpathian Basin, namely, the East Atlantic/West Russia pattern, the Scandinavian pattern, the Mediterranean Oscillation, and the North-Sea Caspian Pattern. For this purpose primarily the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts' (ECMWF) ERA-20C atmospheric reanalysis dataset and multivariate statistical methods are used. The indices of each teleconnection pattern and their correlations with temperature and precipitation will be calculated for the period of 1961-1990. On the basis of these data first the long range (i. e. seasonal and/or annual scale) forecast ability is evaluated. Then, we aim to calculate the same indices of the relevant teleconnection patterns for the historical and future simulations of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models and compare them against each other using statistical methods. Our ultimate goal is to examine all available CMIP5 models and evaluate their abilities to reproduce the selected teleconnection systems. Thus, climate predictions for the 21st century for the Carpathian Basin may be improved using the best-performing models among all CMIP5 model simulations.

  16. Processes analysis of ocean-atmosphere interaction in Colombian marine areas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Melo, Jeimmy; Pabon Caicedo, Jose Daniel

    2002-01-01

    This document shows the importance to understanding the processes of interaction ocean-atmosphere by means of the knowledge of the behavior of the physical and biological processes in the Colombian marine areas. For such aim, it was studied the production of the pigment concentration (chlorophyll-a) by means the state of the sea surface temperature and the atmospheric dynamics for year 2001

  17. The Asian-Bering-North American teleconnection: seasonality, maintenance, and climate impact on North America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Bin; Lin, H.; Wu, Z. W.; Merryfield, W. J.

    2018-03-01

    The Asian-Bering-North American (ABNA) teleconnection index is constructed from the normalized 500-hPa geopotential field by excluding the Pacific-North American pattern contribution. The ABNA pattern features a zonally elongated wavetrain originating from North Asia and flowing downstream across Bering Sea and Strait towards North America. The large-scale teleconnection is a year-round phenomenon that displays strong seasonality with the peak variability in winter. North American surface temperature and temperature extremes, including warm days and nights as well as cold days and nights, are significantly controlled by this teleconnection. The ABNA pattern has an equivalent barotropic structure in the troposphere and is supported by synoptic-scale eddy forcing in the upper troposphere. Its associated sea surface temperature anomalies exhibit a horseshoe-shaped structure in the North Pacific, most prominent in winter, which is driven by atmospheric circulation anomalies. The snow cover anomalies over the West Siberian plain and Central Siberian Plateau in autumn and spring and over southern Siberia in winter may act as a forcing influence on the ABNA pattern. The snow forcing influence in winter and spring can be traced back to the preceding season, which provides a predictability source for this teleconnection and for North American temperature variability. The ABNA associated energy budget is dominated by surface longwave radiation anomalies year-round, with the temperature anomalies supported by anomalous downward longwave radiation and damped by upward longwave radiation at the surface.

  18. Impact of the Dominant Large-scale Teleconnections on Winter Temperature Variability over East Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lim, Young-Kwon; Kim, Hae-Dong

    2013-01-01

    Monthly mean geopotential height for the past 33 DJF seasons archived in Modern Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications reanalysis is decomposed into the large-scale teleconnection patterns to explain their impacts on winter temperature variability over East Asia. Following Arctic Oscillation (AO) that explains the largest variance, East Atlantic/West Russia (EA/WR), West Pacific (WP) and El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are identified as the first four leading modes that significantly explain East Asian winter temperature variation. While the northern part of East Asia north of 50N is prevailed by AO and EA/WR impacts, temperature in the midlatitudes (30N-50N), which include Mongolia, northeastern China, Shandong area, Korea, and Japan, is influenced by combined effect of the four leading teleconnections. ENSO impact on average over 33 winters is relatively weaker than the impact of the other three teleconnections. WP impact, which has received less attention than ENSO in earlier studies, characterizes winter temperatures over Korea, Japan, and central to southern China region south of 30N mainly by advective process from the Pacific. Upper level wave activity fluxes reveal that, for the AO case, the height and circulation anomalies affecting midlatitude East Asian winter temperature is mainly located at higher latitudes north of East Asia. Distribution of the fluxes also explains that the stationary wave train associated with EA/WR propagates southeastward from the western Russia, affecting the East Asian winter temperature. Investigation on the impact of each teleconnection for the selected years reveals that the most dominant teleconnection over East Asia is not the same at all years, indicating a great deal of interannual variability. Comparison in temperature anomaly distributions between observation and temperature anomaly constructed using the combined effect of four leading teleconnections clearly show a reasonable consistency between

  19. Coupled Regional Ocean-Atmosphere Modeling of the Mount Pinatubo Impact on the Red Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stenchikov, G. L.; Osipov, S.

    2017-12-01

    The 1991 eruption of Mount Pinatubo had dramatic effects on the regional climate in the Middle East. Though acknowledged, these effects have not been thoroughly studied. To fill this gap and to advance understanding of the mechanisms that control variability in the Middle East's regional climate, we simulated the impact of the 1991 Pinatubo eruption using a regional coupled ocean-atmosphere modeling system set for the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) domain. We used the Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave-Sediment Transport (COAWST) framework, which couples the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) model with the Regional Oceanic Modeling System (ROMS). We modified the WRF model to account for the radiative effect of volcanic aerosols. Our coupled ocean-atmosphere simulations verified by available observations revealed strong perturbations in the energy balance of the Red Sea, which drove thermal and circulation responses. Our modeling approach allowed us to separate changes in the atmospheric circulation caused by the impact of the volcano from direct regional radiative cooling from volcanic aerosols. The atmospheric circulation effect was significantly stronger than the direct volcanic aerosols effect. We found that the Red Sea response to the Pinatubo eruption was stronger and qualitatively different from that of the global ocean system. Our results suggest that major volcanic eruptions significantly affect the climate in the Middle East and the Red Sea and should be carefully taken into account in assessments of long-term climate variability and warming trends in MENA and the Red Sea.

  20. Coupled ocean-atmosphere surface variability and its climate impacts in the tropical Atlantic region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fontaine, B.; Janicot, Serge; Roucou, P.

    This study examines time evolution and statistical relationships involving the two leading ocean-atmosphere coupled modes of variability in the tropical Atlantic and some climate anomalies over the tropical 120°W-60°W region using selected historical files (75-y near global SSTs and precipitation over land), more recent observed data (30-y SST and pseudo wind stress in the tropical Atlantic) and reanalyses from the US National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis System on the period 1968-1997: surface air temperature, sea level pressure, moist static energy content at 850 hPa, precipitable water and precipitation. The first coupled mode detected through singular value decomposition of the SST and pseudo wind-stress data over the tropical Atlantic (30°N-20°S) expresses a modulation in the thermal transequatorial gradient of SST anomalies conducted by one month leading wind-stress anomalies mainly in the tropical north Atlantic during northern winter and fall. It features a slight dipole structure in the meridional plane. Its time variability is dominated by a quasi-decadal signal well observed in the last 20-30 ys and, when projected over longer-term SST data, in the 1920s and 1930s but with shorter periods. The second coupled mode is more confined to the south-equatorial tropical Atlantic in the northern summer and explains considerably less wind-stress/SST cross-covariance. Its time series features an interannual variability dominated by shorter frequencies with increased variance in the 1960s and 1970s before 1977. Correlations between these modes and the ENSO-like Nino3 index lead to decreasing amplitude of thermal anomalies in the tropical Atlantic during warm episodes in the Pacific. This could explain the nonstationarity of meridional anomaly gradients on seasonal and interannual time scales. Overall the relationships between the oceanic component of the coupled modes and the climate anomaly patterns denote thermodynamical

  1. Droughts in Amazonia: Spatiotemporal Variability, Teleconnections, and Seasonal Predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lima, Carlos H. R.; AghaKouchak, Amir

    2017-12-01

    Most Amazonia drought studies have focused on rainfall deficits and their impact on river discharges, while the analysis of other important driver variables, such as temperature and soil moisture, has attracted less attention. Here we try to better understand the spatiotemporal dynamics of Amazonia droughts and associated climate teleconnections as characterized by the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), which integrates information from rainfall deficit, temperature anomalies, and soil moisture capacity. The results reveal that Amazonia droughts are most related to one dominant pattern across the entire region, followed by two seesaw kind of patterns: north-south and east-west. The main two modes are correlated with sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the tropical Pacific and Atlantic oceans. The teleconnections associated with global SST are then used to build a seasonal forecast model for PDSI over Amazonia based on predictors obtained from a sparse canonical correlation analysis approach. A unique feature of the presented drought prediction method is using only a few number of predictors to avoid excessive noise in the predictor space. Cross-validated results show correlations between observed and predicted spatial average PDSI up to 0.60 and 0.45 for lead times of 5 and 9 months, respectively. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study in the region that, based on cross-validation results, leads to appreciable forecast skills for lead times beyond 4 months. This is a step forward in better understanding the dynamics of Amazonia droughts and improving risk assessment and management, through improved drought forecasting.

  2. Effect of Modulation of ENSO by Decadal and Multidecadal Ocean-Atmospheric Oscillations on Continental US Streamflows

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, S.; Abebe, A.; Srivastava, P.; Chaubey, I.

    2017-12-01

    Evaluation of the influences of individual and coupled oceanic-atmospheric oscillations on streamflow at a regional scale in the United States is the focus of this study. The main climatic oscillations considered in this study are: El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Unimpacted or minimally impacted by water management streamflow data from the Model Parameter Estimation Experiment (MOPEX) were used in this study. Two robust and novel non-parametric tests, namely, the rank based partial least square (PLS) and the Joint Rank Fit (JRFit) procedures were used to identify the individual and coupled effect of oscillations on streamflow across continental U.S. (CONUS), respectively. Moreover, the interactive effects of ENSO with decadal and multidecadal cycles were tested and quantified using the JRFit interaction test. The analysis of ENSO indicated higher streamflows during La Niña phase compared to the El Niño phase in Northwest, Northeast and the lower part of Ohio Valley while the opposite occurs for rest of the climatic regions in US. Two distinct climate regions (Northwest and Southeast) were identified from the PDO analysis where PDO negative phase results in increased streamflow than PDO positive phase. Consistent negative and positive correlated regions around the CONUS were identified for AMO and NAO, respectively. The interaction test of ENSO with decadal and multidecadal oscillations showed that El Niño is modulated by the negative phase of PDO and NAO, and the positive phase of AMO, respectively, in the Upper Midwest. However, La Niña is modulated by the positive phase of AMO and PDO in Ohio Valley and Northeast while in Southeast and the South it is modulated by AMO negative phase. Results of this study will assist water managers to understand the streamflow change patterns across the CONUS at decadal and multi-decadal time scales. The

  3. Key features of the IPSL ocean atmosphere model and its sensitivity to atmospheric resolution

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Marti, Olivier; Braconnot, P.; Bellier, J.; Brockmann, P.; Caubel, A.; Noblet, N. de; Friedlingstein, P.; Idelkadi, A.; Kageyama, M. [Unite Mixte CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, IPSL/LSCE, Gif-sur-Yvette Cedex (France); Dufresne, J.L.; Bony, S.; Codron, F.; Fairhead, L.; Grandpeix, J.Y.; Hourdin, F.; Musat, I. [Unite Mixte CNRS-Ecole Polytechnique-ENS-UPCM, IPSL/LMD, Paris Cedex 05 (France); Benshila, R.; Guilyardi, E.; Levy, C.; Madec, G.; Mignot, J.; Talandier, C. [unite mixte CNRS-IRD-UPMC, IPLS/LOCEAN, Paris Cedex 05 (France); Cadule, P.; Denvil, S.; Foujols, M.A. [Institut Pierre Simon Laplace des Sciences de l' Environnement (IPSL), Paris Cedex 05 (France); Fichefet, T.; Goosse, H. [Universite Catholique de Louvain, Institut d' Astronomie et de Geophysique Georges Lemaitre, Louvain-la-Neuve (Belgium); Krinner, G. [Unite mixte CNRS-UJF Grenoble, LGGE, BP96, Saint-Martin-d' Heres (France); Swingedouw, D. [CNRS/CERFACS, Toulouse (France)

    2010-01-15

    This paper presents the major characteristics of the Institut Pierre Simon Laplace (IPSL) coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model. The model components and the coupling methodology are described, as well as the main characteristics of the climatology and interannual variability. The model results of the standard version used for IPCC climate projections, and for intercomparison projects like the Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP 2) are compared to those with a higher resolution in the atmosphere. A focus on the North Atlantic and on the tropics is used to address the impact of the atmosphere resolution on processes and feedbacks. In the North Atlantic, the resolution change leads to an improved representation of the storm-tracks and the North Atlantic oscillation. The better representation of the wind structure increases the northward salt transports, the deep-water formation and the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. In the tropics, the ocean-atmosphere dynamical coupling, or Bjerknes feedback, improves with the resolution. The amplitude of ENSO (El Nino-Southern oscillation) consequently increases, as the damping processes are left unchanged. (orig.)

  4. Uncertainty in the ocean-atmosphere feedbacks associated with ENSO in the reanalysis products

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kumar, Arun; Hu, Zeng-Zhen [NCEP/NWS/NOAA, Climate Prediction Center, Camp Springs, MD (United States)

    2012-08-15

    The evolution of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability can be characterized by various ocean-atmosphere feedbacks, for example, the influence of ENSO related sea surface temperature (SST) variability on the low-level wind and surface heat fluxes in the equatorial tropical Pacific, which in turn affects the evolution of the SST. An analysis of these feedbacks requires physically consistent observational data sets. Availability of various reanalysis data sets produced during the last 15 years provides such an opportunity. A consolidated estimate of ocean surface fluxes based on multiple reanalyses also helps understand biases in ENSO predictions and simulations from climate models. In this paper, the intensity and the spatial structure of ocean-atmosphere feedback terms (precipitation, surface wind stress, and ocean surface heat flux) associated with ENSO are evaluated for six different reanalysis products. The analysis provides an estimate for the feedback terms that could be used for model validation studies. The analysis includes the robustness of the estimate across different reanalyses. Results show that one of the ''coupled'' reanalysis among the six investigated is closer to the ensemble mean of the results, suggesting that the coupled data assimilation may have the potential to better capture the overall atmosphere-ocean feedback processes associated with ENSO than the uncoupled ones. (orig.)

  5. Initial conditions and ENSO prediction using a coupled ocean-atmosphere model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larow, T. E.; Krishnamurti, T. N.

    1998-01-01

    A coupled ocean-atmosphere initialization scheme using Newtonian relaxation has been developed for the Florida State University coupled ocean-atmosphere global general circulation model. The initialization scheme is used to initialize the coupled model for seasonal forecasting the boreal summers of 1987 and 1988. The atmosphere model is a modified version of the Florida State University global spectral model, resolution T-42. The ocean general circulation model consists of a slightly modified version of the Hamburg's climate group model described in Latif (1987) and Latif et al. (1993). The coupling is synchronous with information exchanged every two model hours. Using ECMWF atmospheric daily analysis and observed monthly mean SSTs, two, 1-year, time-dependent, Newtonian relaxation were performed using the coupled model prior to conducting the seasonal forecasts. The coupled initializations were conducted from 1 June 1986 to 1 June 1987 and from 1 June 1987 to 1 June 1988. Newtonian relaxation was applied to the prognostic atmospheric vorticity, divergence, temperature and dew point depression equations. In the ocean model the relaxation was applied to the surface temperature. Two, 10-member ensemble integrations were conducted to examine the impact of the coupled initialization on the seasonal forecasts. The initial conditions used for the ensembles are the ocean's final state after the initialization and the atmospheric initial conditions are ECMWF analysis. Examination of the SST root mean square error and anomaly correlations between observed and forecasted SSTs in the Niño-3 and Niño-4 regions for the 2 seasonal forecasts, show closer agreement between the initialized forecast than two, 10-member non-initialized ensemble forecasts. The main conclusion here is that a single forecast with the coupled initialization outperforms, in SST anomaly prediction, against each of the control forecasts (members of the ensemble) which do not include such an initialization

  6. Forecasting of rainfall using ocean-atmospheric indices with a fuzzy neural technique

    Science.gov (United States)

    Srivastava, Gaurav; Panda, Sudhindra N.; Mondal, Pratap; Liu, Junguo

    2010-12-01

    SummaryForecasting of rainfall is imperative for rainfed agriculture of arid and semi-arid regions of the world where agriculture consumes nearly 80% of the total water demand. Fuzzy-Ranking Algorithm (FRA) is used to identify the significant input variables for rainfall forecast. A case study is carried out to forecast monthly rainfall in India with several ocean-atmospheric predictor variables. Three different scenarios of ocean-atmospheric predictor variables are used as a set of possible input variables for rainfall forecasting model: (1) two climate indices, i.e. Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation Index (PDOI); (2) Sea Surface Temperature anomalies (SSTa) in the 5° × 5° grid points in Indian Ocean; and (3) both the climate indices and SSTa. To generate a set of possible input variables for these scenarios, we use climatic indices and the SSTa data with different lags between 1 and 12 months. Nonlinear relationship between identified inputs and rainfall is captured with an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) technique. A new approach based on fuzzy c-mean clustering is proposed for dividing data into representative subsets for training, testing, and validation. The results show that this proposed approach overcomes the difficulty in determining optimal numbers of clusters associated with the data division technique of self-organized map. The ANN model developed with both the climate indices and SSTa shows the best performance for the forecast of the monthly August rainfall in India. Similar approach can be applied to forecast rainfall of any period at selected climatic regions of the world where significant relationship exists between the rainfall and climate indices.

  7. Impact of dynamical regionalization on precipitation biases and teleconnections over West Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gómara, Iñigo; Mohino, Elsa; Losada, Teresa; Domínguez, Marta; Suárez-Moreno, Roberto; Rodríguez-Fonseca, Belén

    2018-06-01

    West African societies are highly dependent on the West African Monsoon (WAM). Thus, a correct representation of the WAM in climate models is of paramount importance. In this article, the ability of 8 CMIP5 historical General Circulation Models (GCMs) and 4 CORDEX-Africa Regional Climate Models (RCMs) to characterize the WAM dynamics and variability is assessed for the period July-August-September 1979-2004. Simulations are compared with observations. Uncertainties in RCM performance and lateral boundary conditions are assessed individually. Results show that both GCMs and RCMs have trouble to simulate the northward migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone in boreal summer. The greatest bias improvements are obtained after regionalization of the most inaccurate GCM simulations. To assess WAM variability, a Maximum Covariance Analysis is performed between Sea Surface Temperature and precipitation anomalies in observations, GCM and RCM simulations. The assessed variability patterns are: El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO); the eastern Mediterranean (MED); and the Atlantic Equatorial Mode (EM). Evidence is given that regionalization of the ENSO-WAM teleconnection does not provide any added value. Unlike GCMs, RCMs are unable to precisely represent the ENSO impact on air subsidence over West Africa. Contrastingly, the simulation of the MED-WAM teleconnection is improved after regionalization. Humidity advection and convergence over the Sahel area are better simulated by RCMs. Finally, no robust conclusions can be determined for the EM-WAM teleconnection, which cannot be isolated for the 1979-2004 period. The novel results in this article will help to select the most appropriate RCM simulations to study WAM teleconnections.

  8. Observations of Recent Arctic Sea Ice Volume Loss and Its Impact on Ocean-Atmosphere Energy Exchange and Ice Production

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kurtz, N. T.; Markus, T.; Farrell, S. L.; Worthen, D. L.; Boisvert, L. N.

    2011-01-01

    Using recently developed techniques we estimate snow and sea ice thickness distributions for the Arctic basin through the combination of freeboard data from the Ice, Cloud, and land Elevation Satellite (ICESat) and a snow depth model. These data are used with meteorological data and a thermodynamic sea ice model to calculate ocean-atmosphere heat exchange and ice volume production during the 2003-2008 fall and winter seasons. The calculated heat fluxes and ice growth rates are in agreement with previous observations over multiyear ice. In this study, we calculate heat fluxes and ice growth rates for the full distribution of ice thicknesses covering the Arctic basin and determine the impact of ice thickness change on the calculated values. Thinning of the sea ice is observed which greatly increases the 2005-2007 fall period ocean-atmosphere heat fluxes compared to those observed in 2003. Although there was also a decline in sea ice thickness for the winter periods, the winter time heat flux was found to be less impacted by the observed changes in ice thickness. A large increase in the net Arctic ocean-atmosphere heat output is also observed in the fall periods due to changes in the areal coverage of sea ice. The anomalously low sea ice coverage in 2007 led to a net ocean-atmosphere heat output approximately 3 times greater than was observed in previous years and suggests that sea ice losses are now playing a role in increasing surface air temperatures in the Arctic.

  9. The Teleconnection of the Tropical Atlantic to Indo-Pacific Sea Surface Temperatures on Inter-Annual to Centennial Time Scales: A Review of Recent Findings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fred Kucharski

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, the teleconnections from the tropical Atlantic to the Indo-Pacific region from inter-annual to centennial time scales will be reviewed. Identified teleconnections and hypotheses on mechanisms at work are reviewed and further explored in a century-long pacemaker coupled ocean-atmosphere simulation ensemble. There is a substantial impact of the tropical Atlantic on the Pacific region at inter-annual time scales. An Atlantic Niño (Niña event leads to rising (sinking motion in the Atlantic region, which is compensated by sinking (rising motion in the central-western Pacific. The sinking (rising motion in the central-western Pacific induces easterly (westerly surface wind anomalies just to the west, which alter the thermocline. These perturbations propagate eastward as upwelling (downwelling Kelvin-waves, where they increase the probability for a La Niña (El Niño event. Moreover, tropical North Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies are also able to lead La Niña/El Niño development. At multidecadal time scales, a positive (negative Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation leads to a cooling (warming of the eastern Pacific and a warming (cooling of the western Pacific and Indian Ocean regions. The physical mechanism for this impact is similar to that at inter-annual time scales. At centennial time scales, the Atlantic warming induces a substantial reduction of the eastern Pacific warming even under CO2 increase and to a strong subsurface cooling.

  10. The IOD-ENSO precursory teleconnection over the tropical Indo-Pacific Ocean: dynamics and long-term trends under global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuan, Dongliang; Hu, Xiaoyue; Xu, Peng; Zhao, Xia; Masumoto, Yukio; Han, Weiqing

    2018-01-01

    The dynamics of the teleconnection between the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) in the tropical Indian Ocean and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the tropical Pacific Ocean at the time lag of one year are investigated using lag correlations between the oceanic anomalies in the southeastern tropical Indian Ocean in fall and those in the tropical Indo-Pacific Ocean in the following winter-fall seasons in the observations and in high-resolution global ocean model simulations. The lag correlations suggest that the IOD-forced interannual transport anomalies of the Indonesian Throughflow generate thermocline anomalies in the western equatorial Pacific Ocean, which propagate to the east to induce ocean-atmosphere coupled evolution leading to ENSO. In comparison, lag correlations between the surface zonal wind anomalies over the western equatorial Pacific in fall and the Indo-Pacific oceanic anomalies at time lags longer than a season are all insignificant, suggesting the short memory of the atmospheric bridge. A linear continuously stratified model is used to investigate the dynamics of the oceanic connection between the tropical Indian and Pacific Oceans. The experiments suggest that interannual equatorial Kelvin waves from the Indian Ocean propagate into the equatorial Pacific Ocean through the Makassar Strait and the eastern Indonesian seas with a penetration rate of about 10%-15% depending on the baroclinic modes. The IOD-ENSO teleconnection is found to get stronger in the past century or so. Diagnoses of the CMIP5 model simulations suggest that the increased teleconnection is associated with decreased Indonesian Throughflow transports in the recent century, which is found sensitive to the global warming forcing.

  11. Longitudinal biases in the Seychelles Dome simulated by 35 ocean-atmosphere coupled general circulation models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nagura, Motoki; Sasaki, Wataru; Tozuka, Tomoki; Luo, Jing-Jia; Behera, Swadhin K.; Yamagata, Toshio

    2013-02-01

    Seychelles Dome refers to the shallow climatological thermocline in the southwestern Indian Ocean, where ocean wave dynamics efficiently affect sea surface temperature, allowing sea surface temperature anomalies to be predicted up to 1-2 years in advance. Accurate reproduction of the dome by ocean-atmosphere coupled general circulation models (CGCMs) is essential for successful seasonal predictions in the Indian Ocean. This study examines the Seychelles Dome as simulated by 35 CGCMs, including models used in phase five of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Among the 35 CGCMs, 14 models erroneously produce an upwelling dome in the eastern half of the basin whereas the observed Seychelles Dome is located in the southwestern tropical Indian Ocean. The annual mean Ekman pumping velocity in these models is found to be almost zero in the southern off-equatorial region. This result is inconsistent with observations, in which Ekman upwelling acts as the main cause of the Seychelles Dome. In the models reproducing an eastward-displaced dome, easterly biases are prominent along the equator in boreal summer and fall, which result in shallow thermocline biases along the Java and Sumatra coasts via Kelvin wave dynamics and a spurious upwelling dome in the region. Compared to the CMIP3 models, the CMIP5 models are even worse in simulating the dome longitudes.

  12. Scaling laws for perturbations in the ocean-atmosphere system following large CO2 emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Towles, N.; Olson, P.; Gnanadesikan, A.

    2015-07-01

    Scaling relationships are found for perturbations to atmosphere and ocean variables from large transient CO2 emissions. Using the Long-term Ocean-atmosphere-Sediment CArbon cycle Reservoir (LOSCAR) model (Zeebe et al., 2009; Zeebe, 2012b), we calculate perturbations to atmosphere temperature, total carbon, ocean temperature, total ocean carbon, pH, alkalinity, marine-sediment carbon, and carbon-13 isotope anomalies in the ocean and atmosphere resulting from idealized CO2 emission events. The peak perturbations in the atmosphere and ocean variables are then fit to power law functions of the form of γ DαEβ, where D is the event duration, E is its total carbon emission, and γ is a coefficient. Good power law fits are obtained for most system variables for E up to 50 000 PgC and D up to 100 kyr. Although all of the peak perturbations increase with emission rate E/D, we find no evidence of emission-rate-only scaling, α + β = 0. Instead, our scaling yields α + β ≃ 1 for total ocean and atmosphere carbon and 0 < α + β < 1 for most of the other system variables.

  13. AMS Observations over Coastal California from the Biological and Oceanic Atmospheric Study (BOAS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bates, K. H.; Coggon, M. M.; Hodas, N.; Negron, A.; Ortega, A. M.; Crosbie, E.; Sorooshian, A.; Nenes, A.; Flagan, R. C.; Seinfeld, J.

    2015-12-01

    In July 2015, fifteen research flights were conducted on a US Navy Twin Otter aircraft as part of the Biological and Oceanic Atmospheric Study (BOAS) campaign. The flights took place near the California coast at Monterey, to investigate the effects of sea surface temperature and algal blooms on oceanic particulate emissions, the diurnal mixing of urban pollution with other airmasses, and the impacts of biological aerosols on the California atmosphere. The aircraft's payload included an aerosol mass spectrometer (AMS), a differential mobility analyzer, a cloud condensation nuclei counter, a counterflow virtual impactor, a cloudwater collector, and two instruments designed to detect biological aerosols - a wideband integrated biological spectrometer and a SpinCon II - as well as a number of meteorology and aerosol probes, two condensation particle counters, and instruments to measure gas-phase CO, CO2, O3, and NOx. Here, we describe in depth the objectives and outcomes of BOAS and report preliminary results, primarily from the AMS. We detail the spatial characteristics and meteorological variability of speciated aerosol components over a strong and persistent bloom of Pseudo-Nitzschia, the harmful algae that cause 'red tide', and report newly identified AMS markers for biological particles. Finally, we compare these results with data collected during BOAS over urban, forested, and agricultural environments, and describe the mixing observed between oceanic and terrestrial airmasses.

  14. Decadal Variations in Eastern Canada's Taiga Wood Biomass Production Forced by Ocean-Atmosphere Interactions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boucher, Etienne; Nicault, Antoine; Arseneault, Dominique; Bégin, Yves; Karami, Mehdi Pasha

    2017-05-26

    Across Eastern Canada (EC), taiga forests represent an important carbon reservoir, but the extent to which climate variability affects this ecosystem over decades remains uncertain. Here, we analyze an extensive network of black spruce (Picea mariana Mill.) ring width and wood density measurements and provide new evidence that wood biomass production is influenced by large-scale, internal ocean-atmosphere processes. We show that while black spruce wood biomass production is primarily governed by growing season temperatures, the Atlantic ocean conveys heat from the subtropics and influences the decadal persistence in taiga forests productivity. Indeed, we argue that 20-30 years periodicities in Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) as part of the the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) directly influence heat transfers to adjacent lands. Winter atmospheric conditions associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) might also impact EC's taiga forests, albeit indirectly, through its effect on SSTs and sea ice conditions in surrounding seas. Our work emphasizes that taiga forests would benefit from the combined effects of a warmer atmosphere and stronger ocean-to-land heat transfers, whereas a weakening of these transfers could cancel out, for decades or longer, the positive effects of climate change on Eastern Canada's largest ecosystem.

  15. Thermodynamic ocean-atmosphere Coupling and the Predictability of Nordeste rainfall

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, P.; Saravanan, R.; Giannini, A.

    2003-04-01

    The interannual variability of rainfall in the northeastern region of Brazil, or Nordeste, is known to be very strongly correlated with sea surface temperature (SST) variability, of Atlantic and Pacific origin. For this reason the potential predictability of Nordeste rainfall is high. The current generation of state-of-the-art atmospheric models can replicate the observed rainfall variability with high skill when forced with the observed record of SST variability. The correlation between observed and modeled indices of Nordeste rainfall, in the AMIP-style integrations with two such models (NSIPP and CCM3) analyzed here, is of the order of 0.8, i.e. the models explain about 2/3 of the observed variability. Assuming that thermodynamic, ocean-atmosphere heat exchange plays the dominant role in tropical Atlantic SST variability on the seasonal to interannual time scale, we analyze its role in Nordeste rainfall predictability using an atmospheric general circulation model coupled to a slab ocean model. Predictability experiments initialized with observed December SST show that thermodynamic coupling plays a significant role in enhancing the persistence of SST anomalies, both in the tropical Pacific and in the tropical Atlantic. We show that thermodynamic coupling is sufficient to provide fairly accurate forecasts of tropical Atlantic SST in the boreal spring that are significantly better than the persistence forecasts. The consequences for the prediction of Nordeste rainfall are analyzed.

  16. Secular trends and climate drift in coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Covey, Curt; Gleckler, Peter J.; Phillips, Thomas J.; Bader, David C.

    2006-02-01

    Coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation models (coupled GCMs) with interactive sea ice are the primary tool for investigating possible future global warming and numerous other issues in climate science. A long-standing problem with such models is that when different components of the physical climate system are linked together, the simulated climate can drift away from observation unless constrained by ad hoc adjustments to interface fluxes. However, 11 modern coupled GCMs, including three that do not employ flux adjustments, behave much better in this respect than the older generation of models. Surface temperature trends in control run simulations (with external climate forcing such as solar brightness and atmospheric carbon dioxide held constant) are small compared with observed trends, which include 20th century climate change due to both anthropogenic and natural factors. Sea ice changes in the models are dominated by interannual variations. Deep ocean temperature and salinity trends are small enough for model control runs to extend over 1000 simulated years or more, but trends in some regions, most notably the Arctic, differ substantially among the models and may be problematic. Methods used to initialize coupled GCMs can mitigate climate drift but cannot eliminate it. Lengthy "spin-ups" of models, made possible by increasing computer power, are one reason for the improvements this paper documents.

  17. Identification of Holocene millennial-scale forcing in the North Atlantic area: Ocean/atmosphere contribution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Debret, M.; Masson-Delmotte, V.; Christophe, C.; de Vernal, A.; Massei, N.; Eynaud, F.; Nicolle, M.; Frank, N.; Mary, Y.; Magny, M.

    2017-12-01

    Millennial (1500-year) cycles were evidenced decades ago from the advance and retreat of glaciers but many subsequent studies failed to demonstrate the unequivocal character of such oscillation from paleoclimate time series. Hence, the identification of a persistent 1500 year periodicity remains controversial both for the last glacial episode and the Holocene. Applying wavelet analysis to Holocene climate records, we have identified synchronous millennial-scale oscillations which permit to establish a North Atlantic millennial variability index (NAV-Index), maximum at 5330 ± 245, 3560 ± 190, 1810 ± 160 cal years BP and minimum at 4430 ± 250, 2640 ± 225 and 970 ± 200 years before present. This NAV-index was compared with the millennial variability of cosmogenic 10Be isotope, a proxy of solar activity. Differences between the two sets of records suggest that an internal mechanism (Ocean/atmosphere) must be at the origin of the North Atlantic millennial scale variability. Our data document an increased coherence and magnitude of the North Atlantic millennial variability since 6000 cal. years BP, with a frequency of 1780 ± 240 years. During the early Holocene, deglacial meltwater fluxes had strong regional impact and the coupling between subpolar gyre migration and Atlantic meridional oceanic circulation observed since afterward seems to be related to the end of the Laurentide and Inuitian ice sheet meltwater discharge. Hence, we may conclude that the evolution of this millennial oscillation in the future will depend upon the Greenland stability or melting.

  18. Assessment of the Teleconnection Between El Nino Southern ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Cluster analysis grouped the rainfall data into three clusters namely Coastal South, Middle belt and Sahel North, while Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) data from 1988 to 2013 was retrieved from National Ocean Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) as updated by the National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCEP).

  19. Longitudinal Biases in the Seychelles Dome Simulated by 34 Ocean-Atmosphere Coupled General Circulation Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nagura, M.; Sasaki, W.; Tozuka, T.; Luo, J.; Behera, S. K.; Yamagata, T.

    2012-12-01

    The upwelling dome of the southern tropical Indian Ocean is examined by using simulated results from 34 ocean-atmosphere coupled general circulation models (CGCMs) including those from the phase five of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Among the current set of the 34 CGCMs, 12 models erroneously produce the upwelling dome in the eastern half of the basin while the observed Seychelles Dome is located in the southwestern tropical Indian Ocean (Figure 1). The annual mean Ekman pumping velocity is almost zero in the southern off-equatorial region in these models. This is in contrast with the observations that show Ekman upwelling as the cause of the Seychelles Dome. In the models that produce the dome in the eastern basin, the easterly biases are prominent along the equator in boreal summer and fall that cause shallow thermocline biases along the Java and Sumatra coasts via Kelvin wave dynamics and result in a spurious upwelling dome there. In addition, these models tend to overestimate (underestimate) the magnitude of annual (semiannual) cycle of thermocline depth variability in the dome region, which is another consequence of the easterly wind biases in boreal summer-fall. Compared to the CMIP3 models (Yokoi et al. 2009), the CMIP5 models are even worse in simulating the dome longitudes and magnitudes of annual and semiannual cycles of thermocline depth variability in the dome region. Considering the increasing need to understand regional impacts of climate modes, these results may give serious caveats to interpretation of model results and help in further model developments.; Figure 1: The longitudes of the shallowest annual-mean D20 in 5°S-12°S. The open and filled circles are for the observations and the CGCMs, respectively.

  20. Strong links between teleconnections and ecosystem exchange found at a Pacific Northwest old-growth forest from flux tower and MODIS EVI data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sonia Wharton; Laura Chasmer; Matthias Falk; Kyaw Tha Paw U

    2009-01-01

    Variability in three Pacific teleconnection patterns are examined to see if net carbon exchange at a low-elevation, old-growth forest is affected by climatic changes associated with these periodicities. Examined are the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Pacific/North American Oscillation (PNA) and EI Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). We use 9 years of eddy covariance...

  1. International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set (ICOADS) Release 3 Final, Individual Reports in the International Maritime Meteorological Archive Format version 1 (IMMA1)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This dataset, the International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set (ICOADS), is the most widely-used freely available collection of surface marine observations,...

  2. Teleconnection stationarity, variability and trends of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) during the last millennium

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dätwyler, Christoph; Neukom, Raphael; Abram, Nerilie J.; Gallant, Ailie J. E.; Grosjean, Martin; Jacques-Coper, Martín; Karoly, David J.; Villalba, Ricardo

    2017-11-01

    The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is the leading mode of atmospheric interannual variability in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) extra-tropics. Here, we assess the stationarity of SAM spatial correlations with instrumental and paleoclimate proxy data for the past millennium. The instrumental period shows that temporal non-stationarities in SAM teleconnections are not consistent across the SH land areas. This suggests that the influence of the SAM index is modulated by regional effects. However, within key-regions with good proxy data coverage (South America, Tasmania, New Zealand), teleconnections are mostly stationary over the instrumental period. Using different stationarity criteria for proxy record selection, we provide new austral summer and annual mean SAM index reconstructions over the last millennium. Our summer SAM reconstructions are very robust to changes in proxy record selection and the selection of the calibration period, particularly on the multi-decadal timescale. In contrast, the weaker performance and lower agreement in the annual mean SAM reconstructions point towards changing teleconnection patterns that may be particularly important outside the summer months. Our results clearly portend that the temporal stationarity of the proxy-climate relationships should be taken into account in the design of comprehensive regional and hemispherical climate reconstructions. The summer SAM reconstructions show no significant relationship to solar, greenhouse gas and volcanic forcing, with the exception of an extremely strong negative anomaly following the AD 1257 Samalas eruption. Furthermore, reconstructed pre-industrial summer SAM trends are very similar to trends obtained by model control simulations. We find that recent trends in the summer SAM lie outside the 5-95% range of pre-industrial natural variability.

  3. Met UM Upper-tropospheric summer jet teleconnections: A model assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joao Carvalho, Maria; Rodriguez, Jose; Milton, Sean

    2017-04-01

    The upper tropospheric jet stream has been documented to act as a waveguide (Hoskins and Ambrizzi, 1993) and supporting quasi-stationary Rossby waves (Schubert et al. 2011). These have been associated with remote effects in surface level weather such as rainfall anomalies in the East Asian Summer Monsoon as well as extreme temperature events. The goal of this work was to analyse the intraseasonal to interannual upper level boreal summer jet variability and its coupling with low level atmospheric dynamics within the Met Office Unified Model using climate runs. Using the Wallace and Gutzler (1981) proposed approach to find teleconnection patterns on the 200 hPa level wind, lead-lag correlation and Empirical Orthogonal Function analysis on the upper-level jet and relating the results with surface weather variables as well as dynamical variables, it was found that the model presents too strong jet variability, particularly in the tropical region and. In addition, the model presents high teleconnectivity hotspots with higher importance in areas such as the Mediterranean and Caspian Sea which are important source areas for Rossby Waves. Further to this, the model was found to produce an area of teleconnectivity between the tropical Atlantic and western Africa which is not observed in the reanalysis but coexists with long lasting precipitation biases. As comparison for the model results, ERA-Interim circulation and wind data and the TRMM precipitation dataset were used. In order to assess the relative importance of relevant model parameters in the biases and process errors, work is currently underway using perturbed model parameter ensembles.

  4. Tropical Atlantic-Korea teleconnection pattern during boreal summer season

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ham, Yoo-Geun; Chikamoto, Yoshimitsu; Kug, Jong-Seong; Kimoto, Masahide; Mochizuki, Takashi

    2017-10-01

    The remote impact of tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) variability on Korean summer precipitation is examined based on observational data analysis along with the idealized and hindcast model experiments. Observations show a significant correlation (i.e. 0.64) between Korean precipitation anomalies (averaged over 120-130°E, 35-40°N) and the tropical Atlantic SST index (averaged over 60°W-20°E, 30°S-30°N) during the June-July-August (JJA) season for the 1979-2010 period. Our observational analysis and partial-data assimilation experiments using the coupled general circulation model demonstrate that tropical Atlantic SST warming induces the equatorial low-level easterly over the western Pacific through a reorganization of the global Walker Circulation, causing a decreased precipitation over the off-equatorial western Pacific. As a Gill-type response to this diabatic forcing, an anomalous low-level anticyclonic circulation appears over the Philippine Sea, which transports wet air from the tropics to East Asia through low-level southerly, resulting an enhanced precipitation in the Korean peninsula. Multi-model hindcast experiments also show that predictive skills of Korean summer precipitation are improved by utilizing predictions of tropical Atlantic SST anomalies as a predictor for Korean precipitation anomalies.

  5. Diversity in the representation of large-scale circulation associated with ENSO-Indian summer monsoon teleconnections in CMIP5 models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramu, Dandi A.; Chowdary, Jasti S.; Ramakrishna, S. S. V. S.; Kumar, O. S. R. U. B.

    2018-04-01

    Realistic simulation of large-scale circulation patterns associated with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is vital in coupled models in order to represent teleconnections to different regions of globe. The diversity in representing large-scale circulation patterns associated with ENSO-Indian summer monsoon (ISM) teleconnections in 23 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models is examined. CMIP5 models have been classified into three groups based on the correlation between Niño3.4 sea surface temperature (SST) index and ISM rainfall anomalies, models in group 1 (G1) overestimated El Niño-ISM teleconections and group 3 (G3) models underestimated it, whereas these teleconnections are better represented in group 2 (G2) models. Results show that in G1 models, El Niño-induced Tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) SST anomalies are not well represented. Anomalous low-level anticyclonic circulation anomalies over the southeastern TIO and western subtropical northwest Pacific (WSNP) cyclonic circulation are shifted too far west to 60° E and 120° E, respectively. This bias in circulation patterns implies dry wind advection from extratropics/midlatitudes to Indian subcontinent. In addition to this, large-scale upper level convergence together with lower level divergence over ISM region corresponding to El Niño are stronger in G1 models than in observations. Thus, unrealistic shift in low-level circulation centers corroborated by upper level circulation changes are responsible for overestimation of ENSO-ISM teleconnections in G1 models. Warm Pacific SST anomalies associated with El Niño are shifted too far west in many G3 models unlike in the observations. Further large-scale circulation anomalies over the Pacific and ISM region are misrepresented during El Niño years in G3 models. Too strong upper-level convergence away from Indian subcontinent and too weak WSNP cyclonic circulation are prominent in most of G3 models in which ENSO-ISM teleconnections are

  6. Heavy Rainfall Episodes in the Eastern Northeast Brazil Linked to Large-Scale Ocean-Atmosphere Conditions in the Tropical Atlantic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yves K. Kouadio

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Relationships between simultaneous occurrences of distinctive atmospheric easterly wave (EW signatures that cross the south-equatorial Atlantic, intense mesoscale convective systems (lifespan > 2 hour that propagate westward over the western south-equatorial Atlantic, and subsequent strong rainfall episodes (anomaly > 10 mm·day−1 that occur in eastern Northeast Brazil (ENEB are investigated. Using a simple diagnostic analysis, twelve cases with EW lifespan ranging between 3 and 8 days and a mean velocity of 8 m·s−1 were selected and documented during each rainy season of 2004, 2005, and 2006. These cases, which represent 50% of the total number of strong rainfall episodes and 60% of the rainfall amount over the ENEB, were concomitant with an acceleration of the trade winds over the south-equatorial Atlantic, an excess of moisture transported westward from Africa to America, and a strengthening of the convective activity in the oceanic region close to Brazil. Most of these episodes occurred during positive sea surface temperature anomaly patterns over the entire south-equatorial Atlantic and low-frequency warm conditions within the oceanic mixing layer. A real-time monitoring and the simulation of this ocean-atmosphere relationship could help in forecasting such dramatic rainfall events.

  7. LOSCAR: Long-term Ocean-atmosphere-Sediment CArbon cycle Reservoir Model v2.0.4

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. E. Zeebe

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The LOSCAR model is designed to efficiently compute the partitioning of carbon between ocean, atmosphere, and sediments on time scales ranging from centuries to millions of years. While a variety of computationally inexpensive carbon cycle models are already available, many are missing a critical sediment component, which is indispensable for long-term integrations. One of LOSCAR's strengths is the coupling of ocean-atmosphere routines to a computationally efficient sediment module. This allows, for instance, adequate computation of CaCO3 dissolution, calcite compensation, and long-term carbon cycle fluxes, including weathering of carbonate and silicate rocks. The ocean component includes various biogeochemical tracers such as total carbon, alkalinity, phosphate, oxygen, and stable carbon isotopes. LOSCAR's configuration of ocean geometry is flexible and allows for easy switching between modern and paleo-versions. We have previously published applications of the model tackling future projections of ocean chemistry and weathering, pCO2 sensitivity to carbon cycle perturbations throughout the Cenozoic, and carbon/calcium cycling during the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum. The focus of the present contribution is the detailed description of the model including numerical architecture, processes and parameterizations, tuning, and examples of input and output. Typical CPU integration times of LOSCAR are of order seconds for several thousand model years on current standard desktop machines. The LOSCAR source code in C can be obtained from the author by sending a request to loscar.model@gmail.com.

  8. Flexible global ocean-atmosphere-land system model. A modeling tool for the climate change research community

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhou, Tianjun; Yu, Yongqiang; Liu, Yimin; Wang, Bin

    2014-01-01

    First book available on systematic evaluations of the performance of the global climate model FGOALS. Covers the whole field, ranging from the development to the applications of this climate system model. Provide an outlook for the future development of the FGOALS model system. Offers brief introduction about how to run FGOALS. Coupled climate system models are of central importance for climate studies. A new model known as FGOALS (the Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System model), has been developed by the State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences (LASG/IAP, CAS), a first-tier national geophysical laboratory. It serves as a powerful tool, both for deepening our understanding of fundamental mechanisms of the climate system and for making decadal prediction and scenario projections of future climate change. ''Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System Model: A Modeling Tool for the Climate Change Research Community'' is the first book to offer systematic evaluations of this model's performance. It is comprehensive in scope, covering both developmental and application-oriented aspects of this climate system model. It also provides an outlook of future development of FGOALS and offers an overview of how to employ the model. It represents a valuable reference work for researchers and professionals working within the related areas of climate variability and change.

  9. Flexible global ocean-atmosphere-land system model. A modeling tool for the climate change research community

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhou, Tianjun; Yu, Yongqiang; Liu, Yimin; Wang, Bin (eds.) [Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, (China). Inst. of Atmospheric Physics

    2014-04-01

    First book available on systematic evaluations of the performance of the global climate model FGOALS. Covers the whole field, ranging from the development to the applications of this climate system model. Provide an outlook for the future development of the FGOALS model system. Offers brief introduction about how to run FGOALS. Coupled climate system models are of central importance for climate studies. A new model known as FGOALS (the Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System model), has been developed by the State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences (LASG/IAP, CAS), a first-tier national geophysical laboratory. It serves as a powerful tool, both for deepening our understanding of fundamental mechanisms of the climate system and for making decadal prediction and scenario projections of future climate change. ''Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System Model: A Modeling Tool for the Climate Change Research Community'' is the first book to offer systematic evaluations of this model's performance. It is comprehensive in scope, covering both developmental and application-oriented aspects of this climate system model. It also provides an outlook of future development of FGOALS and offers an overview of how to employ the model. It represents a valuable reference work for researchers and professionals working within the related areas of climate variability and change.

  10. Possible teleconnections between East and South Asian summer monsoon precipitation in projected future climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woo, Sumin; Singh, Gyan Prakash; Oh, Jai-Ho; Lee, Kyoung-Min

    2018-01-01

    The present paper examined the teleconnections between two huge Asian summer monsoon components (South and East Asia) during three time slices in future: near-(2010-2039), mid-(2040-2069) and far-(2070-2100) futures under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. For this purpose, a high-resolution atmospheric general circulation model is used and integrated at 40 km horizontal resolution. To get more insight into the relationships between the two Asian monsoon components, we have studied the spatial displaying correlation coefficients (CCs) pattern of precipitation over the entire Asian monsoon region with that of South Asia and three regions of East Asia (North China, Korea-Japan and Southern China) separately during the same three time slices. The possible factors responsible for these teleconnections are explored by using mean sea level pressure (MSLP) and wind fields at 850 hPa. The CC pattern of precipitation over South Asia shows an in-phase relationship with North China and an out-of-phase relationship with Korea-Japan, while precipitation variations over Korea-Japan and Southern China exhibit an out-of-phase relationship with South Asia. The CCs analysis between the two Asian blocks during different time slices shows the strongest CCs during the near and far future with the RCP8.5 scenario. The CC pattern of precipitation over Korea-Japan and Southern China with the wind (at 850 hPa) and MSLP fields indicate that the major parts of the moisture over Korea-Japan gets transported from the west Pacific along the western limb of NPSH, while the moisture over Southern China comes from the Bay of Bengal and South China Seas for good monsoon activity.

  11. Teleconnections in the Presence of Climate Change: A Case Study of the Annular Modes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerber, Edwin; Baldwin, Mark

    2010-05-01

    Long model integrations of future and past climates present a problem for defining teleconnection patterns through Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) or correlation analysis when trends in the underlying climate begin to dominate the covariance structure. Similar issues may soon appear in observations as the record becomes longer, especially if climate trends accelerate. The Northern and Southern Annular Modes provide a prime example, because the poleward shift of the jet streams strongly projects onto these patterns, particularly in the Southern Hemisphere. Climate forecasts of the 21st century by chemistry climate models provide a case study. Computation of the annular modes in these long data sets with secular trends requires refinement of the standard definition of the annular mode, and a more robust procedure that allows for slowly varying trends is established and verified. The new procedure involves two key changes. First, the global mean geopotential height is removed at each time step before computing anomalies. This is particularly important high in the atmosphere, where seasonal variations in geopotential height become significant, and filters out trends due to changes in the temperature structure of the atmosphere. Pattern definition can be very sensitive near the tropopause, as regions of the atmosphere that used to be more of stratospheric character begin to take on tropospheric characteristics as the tropopause rises. The second change is to define anomalies relative to a slowly evolving seasonal climatology, so that the covariance structure reflects internal variability. Once these changes are accounted for, it is found that the zonal mean variability of the atmosphere stays remarkably constant, despite significant changes in the baseline climate forecast for the rest of the century. This stability of the internal variability makes it possible to relate trends in climate to teleconnections.

  12. Interannual tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies teleconnection to Northern Hemisphere atmosphere in November

    Science.gov (United States)

    King, Martin P.; Herceg-Bulić, Ivana; Kucharski, Fred; Keenlyside, Noel

    2018-03-01

    We investigate the Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation anomalies associated to the sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies that are related to the eastern-Pacific and central-Pacific El Nino-Southern Oscillations in the late autumn (November). This research is motivated by the need for improving understanding of the autumn climate conditions which can impact on winter climate, as well as the relative lack of study on the boreal autumn climate processes compared to winter. Using reanalysis and SST datasets available from the late nineteenth century through the recent years, we found that there are two major atmospheric responses; one is a hemispheric-wide wave number-4 pattern, another has a more annular pattern. Both of these project on the East Atlantic pattern (southward-shifted North Atlantic Oscillation) in the Atlantic sector. Which of the patterns is active is suggested to depend on the background mean flow, with the annular anomaly active in the most recent decades, while the wave-4 pattern in the decades before. This switch is associated with a change of correlation sign in the North Pacific. We discuss the robustness of this finding. The ability of two atmospheric general circulation models (ICTP-AGCM and ECHAM-AGCM) to reproduce the teleconnections is also examined. Evidence provided shows that the wave-4 pattern and the East Atlantic pattern signals can be reproduced by the models, while the shift from this to an annular response for the recent years is not found conclusively.

  13. Precipitation, temperature, and teleconnection signals across the combined North American, Monsoon Asia, and Old World Drought Atlases

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smerdon, J. E.; Baek, S. H.; Coats, S.; Williams, P.; Cook, B.; Cook, E. R.; Seager, R.

    2017-12-01

    The tree-ring-based North American Drought Atlas (NADA), Monsoon Asia Drought Atlas (MADA), and Old World Drought Atlas (OWDA) collectively yield a near-hemispheric gridded reconstruction of hydroclimate variability over the last millennium. To test the robustness of the large-scale representation of hydroclimate variability across the drought atlases, the joint expression of seasonal climate variability and teleconnections in the NADA, MADA, and OWDA are compared against two global, observation-based PDSI products. Predominantly positive (negative) correlations are determined between seasonal precipitation (surface air temperature) and collocated tree-ring-based PDSI, with average Pearson's correlation coefficients increasing in magnitude from boreal winter to summer. For precipitation, these correlations tend to be stronger in the boreal winter and summer when calculated for the observed PDSI record, while remaining similar for temperature. Notwithstanding these differences, the drought atlases robustly express teleconnection patterns associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). These expressions exist in the drought atlas estimates of boreal summer PDSI despite the fact that these modes of climate variability are dominant in boreal winter, with the exception of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. ENSO and NAO teleconnection patterns in the drought atlases are particularly consistent with their well-known dominant expressions in boreal winter and over the OWDA domain, respectively. Collectively, our findings confirm that the joint Northern Hemisphere drought atlases robustly reflect large-scale patterns of hydroclimate variability on seasonal to multidecadal timescales over the 20th century and are likely to provide similarly robust estimates of hydroclimate variability prior to the existence of widespread instrumental data.

  14. Scales of North Atlantic wind stress curl determined from the comprehensive ocean-atmosphere data set

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ehret, Laura L.; O'Brien, James J.

    1989-01-01

    Nineteen years of wind data over the North Atlantic are used to calculate a field of wind stress curl. An empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis is performed on this field, resulting in spatial patterns of wind stress curl and associated time series. A Monte Carlo technique is used to establish the statistical significance of each spatial pattern, and the associated time series are spectrally analyzed. The first four statistically significant EOF modes represent more than 50 percent of the curl variance, and the spatial patterns of curl associated with these modes exhibit the major elements of North Atlantic climatology. Most of the time series spectral variance is contained in annual and semiannual frequencies. The features observed include the individual annual variation of the subtropical high and the subpolar low, the annual oscillation of intensity between pressure centers, the influence of localized strong SST gradients and associated cyclogenesis regions, and the constant nature of the trades.

  15. Impact of resolving the diurnal cycle in an ocean-atmosphere GCM. Pt. 2. A diurnally coupled CGCM

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bernie, D.J. [Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter (United Kingdom); University of Reading, National Centre for Atmospheric Science-Climate, Department of Meteorology, Reading (United Kingdom); Numeriques, IPSL, Laboratoire d' Oceanographie et du Climat, Experimentation et Approches, Paris (France); Guilyardi, E. [University of Reading, National Centre for Atmospheric Science-Climate, Department of Meteorology, Reading (United Kingdom); Numeriques, IPSL, Laboratoire d' Oceanographie et du Climat, Experimentation et Approches, Paris (France); Madec, G. [Numeriques, IPSL, Laboratoire d' Oceanographie et du Climat, Experimentation et Approches, Paris (France); Slingo, J.M.; Woolnough, S.J.; Cole, J. [University of Reading, National Centre for Atmospheric Science-Climate, Department of Meteorology, Reading (United Kingdom)

    2008-12-15

    Coupled ocean atmosphere general circulation models (GCM) are typically coupled once every 24 h, excluding the diurnal cycle from the upper ocean. Previous studies attempting to examine the role of the diurnal cycle of the upper ocean and particularly of diurnal SST variability have used models unable to resolve the processes of interest. In part 1 of this study a high vertical resolution ocean GCM configuration with modified physics was developed that could resolve the diurnal cycle in the upper ocean. In this study it is coupled every 3 h to atmospheric GCM to examine the sensitivity of the mean climate simulation and aspects of its variability to the inclusion of diurnal ocean-atmosphere coupling. The inclusion of the diurnal cycle leads to a tropics wide increase in mean sea surface temperature (SST), with the strongest signal being across the equatorial Pacific where the warming increases from 0.2 C in the central and western Pacific to over 0.3 C in the eastern equatorial Pacific. Much of this warming is shown to be a direct consequence of the rectification of daily mean SST by the diurnal variability of SST. The warming of the equatorial Pacific leads to a redistribution of precipitation from the Inter tropical convergence zone (ITCZ) toward the equator. In the western Pacific there is an increase in precipitation between Papa new guinea and 170 E of up to 1.2 mm/day, improving the simulation compared to climatology. Pacific sub tropical cells are increased in strength by about 10%, in line with results of part 1 of this study, due to the modification of the exchange of momentum between the equatorially divergent Ekman currents and the geostropic convergence at depth, effectively increasing the dynamical response of the tropical Pacific to zonal wind stresses. During the spring relaxation of the Pacific trade winds, a large diurnal cycle of SST increases the seasonal warming of the equatorial Pacific. When the trade winds then re-intensify, the increase in

  16. Modeling long-term carbon residue in the ocean-atmosphere system following large CO2 emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Towles, N. J.; Olson, P.; Gnanadesikan, A.

    2013-12-01

    We use the LOSCAR carbon cycle model (Zeebe et al., 2009; Zeebe, 2012) to calculate the residual carbon in the ocean and atmosphere following large CO2 emissions. We consider the system response to CO2 emissions ranging from 100 to 20000 PgC, and emission durations from 100 yr to 100 kyr, subject to a wide range of system parameters such as the strengths of silicate weathering and the oceanic biological carbon pump. We define the carbon gain factor as the ratio of residual carbon in the ocean-atmosphere to the total emitted carbon. For moderate sized emissions shorter than about 50 kyr, we find that the carbon gain factor grows during the emission and peaks at about 1.7, primarily due to the erosion of carbonate marine sediments. In contrast, for longer emissions, the carbon gain factor peaks at a smaller value, and for very large emissions (more than 5000 PgC), the gain factor decreases with emission size due to carbonate sediment exhaustion. This gain factor is sensitive to model parameters such as low latitude efficiency of the biological pump. The timescale for removal of the residual carbon (reducing the carbon gain factor to zero) depends strongly on the assumed sensitivity of silicate weathering to atmospheric pCO2, and ranges from less than one million years to several million years.

  17. Time-slice analysis of the Australian summer monsoon during the late Quaternary using the Fast Ocean Atmosphere Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marshall, A. G.; Lynch, A. H.

    2006-10-01

    We use the Fast Ocean Atmosphere Model (FOAM) to investigate the variation in the Australian summer monsoon over the last 55 000 years. A synthesis of palaeoenvironmental observations is used to constrain the model for six time slices: 55, 35, 21, 11, 6 and 0 ka. Both inter-hemispheric forcing and the seasonal timing of local insolation changes play key, and interacting, roles on the evolution and intensity of the monsoon.During the onset to the monsoon, a heat low develops to the west of Australia over the Indian Ocean in all time slices, but with varying strengths. Divergent outflow from Asia converges with the cyclonic flow to bring increased rainfall to northern Australia and the maritime continent. The relative importance of a low pressure pull and the high pressure push varies according to the strength of the pressure anomalies. Only in the middle Holocene is the low pressure pull the dominant forcing mechanism. At 21 ka, the climate shift to colder mean temperatures determines the large-scale dynamics of the monsoon.The general picture that emerges from these results is consistent with available palaeodata but highlights the importance of a broad regional perspective to ascribe the driving mechanisms at different times. Copyright

  18. Temporal-spatial characteristics of severe drought events in Southwest China and their relationships to teleconnection indices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, P., III; Wu, C.; Hao, Y.; Xu, K.

    2017-12-01

    In the process of global warming, the frequency and intensity of a series of climate events (such as, precipitation, flood disaster, climate arid) are also being changed. Even in the today of advanced science and technology, the occurrence and severity of drought in China is still devastating impact on social and economic development. We studied the spatial and temporal variability of drought in southwestern China China and its relationships to teleconnection indices. We used the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) to investigate the variation in drought in southwestern China between 1961 and 2012 using the Mann-Kendall (MK), continuous wavelet transform (CWT) and the rotated empirical orthogonal function (REOF) methods. Additionally, We analyzed the relationships between the time variability of significant patterns and teleconnection indices. The PDSI shows that there is a trend of turning dry in west Tibet; while it is remarkably drying in junction of Yunnan, Guizhou, Sichuan, Chongqing provinces, and the drought in Spring is more severe than in autumn, with a changing oscillation period of 2-7a. It's found the drought strength reducing before rising without a obvious turning point. Also, the drought frequency staggered in spatial distribution, and a larger inter-annual difference. AO and SS are the most important factors among all the drought influence factors, the others differ from the importance.

  19. Sensitivity of South American tropical climate to Last Glacial Maximum boundary conditions: focus on teleconnections with tropics and extratropics (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khodri, M.; Kageyama, M.; Roche, D. M.

    2009-12-01

    Proxy data over tropical latitudes for the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) has been interpreted as a southward shift of the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and so far linked to a mechanism analogous to the modern day “meridional-mode” in the Atlantic Ocean. Here we have explored alternative mechanisms, related to the direct impact of the LGM global changes in the dry static stability on tropical moist deep convection. We have used a coupled ocean-atmosphere model capable of capturing the thermodynamical structure of the atmosphere and the tropical component of the Hadley and Walker circulations. In each experiment, we have applied either all the LGM forcings, or the individual contributions of greenhouse gases (GHG) concentrations, ice sheet topography and/or albedo to explore the hydrological response over tropical latitudes with a focus on South America. The dominant forcing for the LGM tropical temperature and precipitation changes is found to be due to the reduced GHG, through the direct effect of reduced radiative heating (Clausius-Clapeyron relationship). The LGM GHG is also responsible for increased extra-tropical static stability which strengthens the Hadley Cell. Stronger subsidence over northern tropics then produces an amplification of the northern tropics drying initially due to the direct cooling effect. The land ice sheet is also able to promote the Hadley cell feedback mostly via the topographic effect on the extra-tropical dry static stability and on the position of the subtropical jets. Our results therefore suggest that the communication between the extratropics and the tropics is tighter during LGM and does not necessarily rely on the “meridional-mode” mechanism. The Hadley cell response is constrained by the requirement that diabatic heating in the tropics balances cooling in subtropics. We show that such extratropics-tropics dependence is stronger at the LGM because of the stronger perturbation of northern extra tropical thermal and

  20. Northern hemisphere storm tracks during the last glacial maximum in the PMIP2 ocean-atmosphere coupled models: energetic study, seasonal cycle, precipitation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Laine, A.; Kageyama, M.; Ramstein, G.; Peterschmitt, J.Y. [LSCE/IPSL, UMR CEA-CNRS-UVSQ 1572, CE Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette Cedex (France); Salas-Melia, D.; Voldoire, A.; Riviere, G.; Planton, S.; Tyteca, S. [CNRM-GAME, URA CNRS-Meteo-France 1357, Toulouse Cedex 01 (France)

    2009-04-15

    Mid-latitude eddies are an important component of the climatic system due to their role in transporting heat, moisture and momentum from the tropics to the poles, and also for the precipitation associated with their fronts, especially in winter. We study northern hemisphere storm-tracks at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and their influence on precipitation using ocean-atmosphere general circulation model (OAGCM) simulations from the second phase of the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP2). The difference with PMIP1 results in terms of sea-surface temperature forcing, fundamental for storm-track dynamics, is large, especially in the eastern North Atlantic where sea-ice extends less to the south in OAGCMs compared to atmospheric-only GCMs. Our analyses of the physics of the eddies are based on the equations of eddy energetics. All models simulate a consistent southeastward shift of the North Pacific storm-track in winter, related to a similar displacement of the jet stream, partly forced by the eddies themselves. Precipitation anomalies are consistent with storm-track changes, with a southeastward displacement of the North Pacific precipitation pattern. The common features of North Atlantic changes in the LGM simulations consist of a thinning of the storm-track in its western part and an amplification of synoptic activity to the southeast, in the region between the Azores Islands and the Iberian Peninsula, which reflects on precipitation. This southeastward extension is related to a similar displacement of the jet, partly forced by the eddies. In the western North Atlantic, the synoptic activity anomalies are at first order related to baroclinic generation term anomalies, but the mean-flow baroclinicity increase due to the presence of the Laurentide ice-sheet is partly balanced by a loss of eddy efficiency to convert energy from the mean flow. Moisture availability in this region is greatly reduced due to more advection of dry polar air by

  1. The crucial role of ocean-atmosphere coupling on the Indian monsoon anomalous response during dipole events

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Krishnan, R.; Swapna, P.; Ayantika, D.C.; Mujumdar, M. [Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Climate and Global Modelling Division, Pune (India); Sundaram, Suchithra [Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Climate and Global Modelling Division, Pune (India); Universite Catholique de Louvain, Institut d' Astronomie de Geophysique G. Lemaitre, Louvain-La-Neuve (Belgium); Kumar, Vinay [Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Climate and Global Modelling Division, Pune (India); Florida State University, Department of Meteorology, Tallahassee, FL (United States)

    2011-07-15

    This paper examines an issue concerning the simulation of anomalously wet Indian summer monsoons like 1994 which co-occurred with strong positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions in the tropical Indian Ocean. Contrary to observations it has been noticed that standalone atmospheric general circulation models (AGCM) forced with observed SST boundary condition, consistently depicted a decrease of the summer monsoon rainfall during 1994 over the Indian region. Given the ocean-atmosphere coupling during IOD events, we have examined whether the failure of standalone AGCM simulations in capturing wet Indian monsoons like 1994 can be remedied by including a simple form of coupling that allows the monsoon circulation to dynamically interact with the IOD anomalies. With this view, we have performed a suite of simulations by coupling an AGCM to a slab-ocean model with spatially varying mixed-layer-depth (MLD) specified from observations for the 1994 IOD; as well as four other cases (1983, 1997, 2006, 2007). The specification of spatially varying MLD from observations allows us to constrain the model to observed IOD conditions. It is seen that the inclusion of coupling significantly improves the large-scale circulation response by strengthening the monsoon cross-equatorial flow; leading to precipitation enhancement over the subcontinent and rainfall decrease over south-eastern tropical Indian Ocean - in a manner broadly consistent with observations. A plausible physical mechanism is suggested to explain the monsoonal response in the coupled frame-work. These results warrant the need for improved monsoon simulations with fully coupled models to be able to better capture the observed monsoon interannual variability. (orig.)

  2. Autumn atmospheric response to the 2007 low Arctic sea ice extent in coupled ocean-atmosphere hindcasts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Orsolini, Yvan J. [Norwegian Institute for Air Research (NILU), PO BOX 100, Kjeller (Norway); Senan, Retish; Benestad, Rasmus E.; Melsom, Arne [Norwegian Meteorological Institute (met. no), Oslo (Norway)

    2012-06-15

    The autumn and early winter atmospheric response to the record-low Arctic sea ice extent at the end of summer 2007 is examined in ensemble hindcasts with prescribed sea ice extent, made with the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts state-of-the-art coupled ocean-atmosphere seasonal forecast model. Robust, warm anomalies over the Pacific and Siberian sectors of the Arctic, as high as 10 C at the surface, are found in October and November. A regime change occurs by December, characterized by weaker temperatures anomalies extending through the troposphere. Geopotential anomalies extend from the surface up to the stratosphere, associated to deeper Aleutian and Icelandic Lows. While the upper-level jet is weakened and shifted southward over the continents, it is intensified over both oceanic sectors, especially over the Pacific Ocean. On the American and Eurasian continents, intensified surface Highs are associated with anomalous advection of cold (warm) polar air on their eastern (western) sides, bringing cooler temperatures along the Pacific coast of Asia and Northeastern North America. Transient eddy activity is reduced over Eurasia, intensified over the entrance and exit regions of the Pacific and Atlantic storm tracks, in broad qualitative agreement with the upper-level wind anomalies. Potential predictability calculations indicate a strong influence of sea ice upon surface temperatures over the Arctic in autumn, but also along the Pacific coast of Asia in December. When the observed sea ice extent from 2007 is prescribed throughout the autumn, a higher correlation of surface temperatures with meteorological re-analyses is found at high latitudes from October until mid-November. This further emphasises the relevance of sea ice for seasonal forecasting in the Arctic region, in the autumn. (orig.)

  3. Impact of a realistic river routing in coupled ocean-atmosphere simulations of the Last Glacial Maximum climate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Alkama, Ramdane [IPSL, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l' Environnement, Gif-sur-Yvette Cedex (France); Universite Pierre et Marie Curie, Structure et fonctionnement des systemes hydriques continentaux (Sisyphe), Paris (France); Kageyama, M.; Ramstein, G.; Marti, O.; Swingedouw, D. [IPSL, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l' Environnement, Gif-sur-Yvette Cedex (France); Ribstein, P. [Universite Pierre et Marie Curie, Structure et fonctionnement des systemes hydriques continentaux (Sisyphe), Paris (France)

    2008-06-15

    The presence of large ice sheets over North America and North Europe at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) strongly impacted Northern hemisphere river pathways. Despite the fact that such changes may significantly alter the freshwater input to the ocean, modified surface hydrology has never been accounted for in coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model simulations of the LGM climate. To reconstruct the LGM river routing, we use the ICE-5G LGM topography. Because of the uncertainties in the extent of the Fennoscandian ice sheet in the Eastern part of the Kara Sea, we consider two more realistic river routing scenarios. The first scenario is characterised by the presence of an ice dammed lake south of the Fennoscandian ice sheet, and corresponds to the ICE-5G topography. This lake is fed by the Ob and Yenisei rivers. In the second scenario, both these rivers flow directly into the Arctic Ocean, which is more consistent with the latest QUEEN ice sheet margin reconstructions. We study the impact of these changes on the LGM climate as simulated by the IPSL{sub C}M4 model and focus on the overturning thermohaline circulation. A comparison with a classical LGM simulation performed using the same model and modern river basins as designed in the PMIP2 exercise leads to the following conclusions: (1) The discharge into the North Atlantic Ocean is increased by 2,000 m{sup 3}/s between 38 and 54 N in both simulations that contain LGM river routing, compared to the classical LGM experiment. (2) The ice dammed lake is shown to have a weak impact, relative to the classical simulation, both in terms of climate and ocean circulation. (3) In contrast, the North Atlantic deep convection and meridional overturning are weaker than during the classical LGM run if the Ob and Yenisei rivers flow directly into the Arctic Ocean. The total discharge into the Arctic Ocean is increased by 31,000 m{sup 3}/s, relative to the classical LGM simulation. Consequentially, northward ocean heat

  4. South Asian high and Asian-Pacific-American climate teleconnection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Peiqun; Song, Yang; Kousky, Vernon E.

    2005-11-01

    Growing evidence indicates that the Asian monsoon plays an important role in affecting the weather and climate outside of Asia. However, this active role of the monsoon has not been demonstrated as thoroughly as has the variability of the monsoon caused by various impacting factors such as sea surface temperature and land surface. This study investigates the relationship between the Asian monsoon and the climate anomalies in the Asian-Pacific-American (APA) sector. A hypothesis is tested that the variability of the upper-tropospheric South Asian high (SAH), which is closely associated with the overall heating of the large-scale Asian monsoon, is linked to changes in the subtropical western Pacific high (SWPH), the mid-Pacific trough, and the Mexican high. The changes in these circulation systems cause variability in surface temperature and precipitation in the APA region. A stronger SAH is accompanied by a stronger and more extensive SWPH. The enlargement of the SWPH weakens the mid-Pacific trough. As a result, the southern portion of the Mexican high becomes stronger. These changes are associated with changes in atmospheric teleconnections, precipitation, and surface temperature throughout the APA region. When the SAH is stronger, precipitation increases in southern Asia, decreases over the Pacific Ocean, and increases over the Central America. Precipitation also increases over Australia and central Africa and decreases in the Mediterranean region. While the signals in surface temperature are weak over the tropical land portion, they are apparent in the mid latitudes and over the eastern Pacific Ocean.

  5. Seasonal Forecast Skill And Teleconnections Over East Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacLeod, D.; Palmer, T.

    2017-12-01

    Many people living in East Africa are significantly exposed to risks arising from climate variability. The region experiences two rainy seasons and poor performance of either or both of these (such as seen recently in 2016/17) reduces agricultural productivity and threatens food security. In combination with other factors this can lead to famine. By utilizing seasonal climate forecasts, preparatory actions can be taken in order to mitigate the risks arising from such climate variability. As part of the project ForPAc: "Towards forecast-based preparedness action", we are working with humanitarian agencies in Kenya to build such early warning systems on subseasonal-to-seasonal timescales. Here, the seasonal predictability and forecast skill of the two East African rainy seasons will be presented. Results from the new ECMWF operational forecasting system SEAS5 will be shown and compared to the previous System 4. Analysis of a new 110 year long atmosphere-only simulation will also be discussed, demonstrating impacts of atmosphere-ocean coupling as well as putting operational forecast skill in a long-term context. Particular focus will be given to the model representation of teleconnections of seasonal climate with global sea surface temperatures; highlighting sources of forecast error and informing future model development.

  6. Role of upper-most crustal composition in the evolution of the Precambrian ocean-atmosphere system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Large, R. R.; Mukherjee, I.; Zhukova, I.; Corkrey, R.; Stepanov, A.; Danyushevsky, L. V.

    2018-04-01

    Recent research has emphasized the potential relationships between supercontinent cycles, mountain building, nutrient flux, ocean-atmosphere chemistry and the origin of life. The composition of the Upper-Most Continental Crust (UMCC) also figures prominently in these relationships, and yet little detailed data on each component of this complex relationship has been available for assessment. Here we provide a new set of data on the trace element concentrations, including the Rare Earth Elements (REE), in the matrix of 52 marine black shale formations spread globally through the Archean and Proterozoic. The data support previous studies on the temporal geochemistry of shales, but with some important differences. Results indicate a change in provenance of the black shales (upper-most crustal composition), from more mafic in the Archean prior to 2700 Ma, to more felsic from 2700 to 2200 Ma, followed by a return to mafic compositions from 2200 to 1850 Ma. Around 1850 to 1800 Ma there is a rapid change to uniform felsic compositions, which remained for a billion years to 800 Ma. The shale matrix geochemistry supports the assertion that the average upper-most continental source rocks for the shales changed from a mix of felsic, mafic and ultramafic prior to 2700 Ma to more felsic after 1850 Ma, with an extended transition period between. The return to more mafic UMCC from 2200 to 1850 Ma is supported by the frequency of Large Igneous Provinces (LIPs) and banded iron formations, which suggest a peak in major mantle-connected plume events and associated Fe-rich hydrothermal activity over this period. Support for the change to felsic UMCC around 1850 Ma is provided by previous geological data which shows that felsic magmas, including, A-type granites and K-Th-U-rich granites intruded vast areas of the continental crust, peaking around 1850 Ma and declining to 1000 Ma. The implications of this change in UMCC are far reaching and may go some way to explain the distinct

  7. Evidence of Teleconnections between the Peruvian central Andes and Northeast Brazil during extreme rainfall events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sulca, J. C.; Vuille, M. F.; Silva, F. Y.; Takahashi, K.

    2013-12-01

    Knowledge about changes in regional circulation and physical processes associated with extreme rainfall events in South America is limited. Here we investigate such events over the Mantaro basin (MB) located at (10°S-13°S; 73°W-76°W) in the central Peruvian Andes and Northeastern Brazil (NEB), located at (9°S-15°S; 39°W-46°W). Occasional dry and wet spells can be observed in both areas during the austral summer season. The main goal of this study is to investigate potential teleconnections between extreme rainfall events in MB and NEB during austral summer. We define wet (dry) spells as periods that last for at least 3 (5) consecutive days with rainfall above (below) the 70 (30) percentile. To identify the dates of ocurrence of these events, we used daily accumulated rainfall data from 14 climate stations located in the Mantaro basin for the period 1965 to 2002. In NEB we defined a rainfall index which is based on average daily gridded rainfall data within the region for the same period. Dry (wet spells) in the MB are associated with positive (negative) OLR anomalies which extend over much of the tropical Andes, indicating the large-scale nature of these events. At 200 hPa anomalous easterly (westerly) zonal winds aloft accompany wet (dry) spells. Composite anomalies of dry spells in MB reveal significant contemporaneous precipitation anomalies of the opposite sign over NEB, which suggest that intraseasonal precipitation variability over the two regions may be dynamically linked. Indeed upper-tropospheric circulation anomalies over the central Andes extend across South America and appear to be tied to an adjustment in the Bolivian High-Nordeste Low system. Dry (wet) spells in NEB are equally associated with a large-scale pattern of positive (negative) OLR anomalies; however, there are no related significant OLR anomalies over the MB during these events. Dry (wet) spells are associated with robust patterns of anomalous wind fields at both low and upper

  8. Pacific-North American teleconnection and North Pacific Oscillation: historical simulation and future projection in CMIP5 models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Zheng; Gan, Bolan; Wu, Lixin; Jia, Fan

    2017-09-01

    Based on reanalysis datasets and as many as 35 CMIP5 models, this study evaluates the capability of climate models to simulate the spatiotemporal features of Pacific-North American teleconnection (PNA) and North Pacific Oscillation (NPO) in the twentieth century wintertime, and further investigates their responses to greenhouse warming in the twenty-first century. Analysis reveals that while the majority (80%) of models reasonably simulate either the geographical distribution or the amplitude of PNA/NPO pattern, only half of models can well capture both features in space. As for the temporal features, variabilities of PNA and NPO in most models are biased toward higher amplitude. Additionally, most models simulate the interannual variabilities of PNA and NPO, qualitatively consistent with the observation, whereas models generally lack the capability to reproduce the decadal (20-25 years) variability of PNA. As the climate warms under the strongest future warming scenario, the PNA intensity is found to be strengthened, whereas there is no consensus on the direction of change in the NPO intensity among models. The intensification of positive PNA is primarily manifested in the large deepening of the North Pacific trough, which is robust as it is 2.3 times the unforced internal variability. By focusing on the tropical Pacific Ocean, we find that the multidecadal evolution of the North Pacific trough intensity (dominating the PNA intensity evolution) is closely related to that of the analogous trough in the PNA-like teleconnection forced by sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTa) in the tropical central Pacific (CP) rather than the tropical eastern Pacific (EP). Such association is also found to act under greenhouse warming: that is, the strengthening of the PNA-like teleconnection induced by the CP SSTa rather than the EP SSTa is a driving force for the intensification of PNA. This is in part owing to the robust enhancement of the tropical precipitation response to

  9. Pacific-North American teleconnection and North Pacific Oscillation: historical simulation and future projection in CMIP5 models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Zheng; Gan, Bolan; Wu, Lixin; Jia, Fan

    2018-06-01

    Based on reanalysis datasets and as many as 35 CMIP5 models, this study evaluates the capability of climate models to simulate the spatiotemporal features of Pacific-North American teleconnection (PNA) and North Pacific Oscillation (NPO) in the twentieth century wintertime, and further investigates their responses to greenhouse warming in the twenty-first century. Analysis reveals that while the majority (80%) of models reasonably simulate either the geographical distribution or the amplitude of PNA/NPO pattern, only half of models can well capture both features in space. As for the temporal features, variabilities of PNA and NPO in most models are biased toward higher amplitude. Additionally, most models simulate the interannual variabilities of PNA and NPO, qualitatively consistent with the observation, whereas models generally lack the capability to reproduce the decadal (20-25 years) variability of PNA. As the climate warms under the strongest future warming scenario, the PNA intensity is found to be strengthened, whereas there is no consensus on the direction of change in the NPO intensity among models. The intensification of positive PNA is primarily manifested in the large deepening of the North Pacific trough, which is robust as it is 2.3 times the unforced internal variability. By focusing on the tropical Pacific Ocean, we find that the multidecadal evolution of the North Pacific trough intensity (dominating the PNA intensity evolution) is closely related to that of the analogous trough in the PNA-like teleconnection forced by sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTa) in the tropical central Pacific (CP) rather than the tropical eastern Pacific (EP). Such association is also found to act under greenhouse warming: that is, the strengthening of the PNA-like teleconnection induced by the CP SSTa rather than the EP SSTa is a driving force for the intensification of PNA. This is in part owing to the robust enhancement of the tropical precipitation response to

  10. The Caspian Sea Catchment influenced by Atlantic Teleconnections in CESM1.2.2 and Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nandini, S. D.; Prange, M.; Schulz, M.

    2017-12-01

    The Caspian Sea (CS) is the world's largest inland sea and located within a closed (endorheic) drainage basin [ 37°-47N, 47°-54°E]. It has undergone dynamic variations (>3 m) during the past century with huge impacts on the economy, ecosystem and livelihood of coastal people. The origin of these variations as well as future changes are disputable. Here, we examine the impact of the major seasonal North Atlantic teleconnection patterns, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the East Atlantic pattern (EA) on Caspian hydroclimate variability from 1850-2100 CE. Five Numerical experiments at different atmospheric grid resolutions (2° and 1°) and atmospheric model versions (CAM4 and CAM5) are carried out with the coupled Community Earth System Model (CESM1.2.2). Results reveal the 1° CESM1.2.2 CAM5 captures DJF NAO (46.5%) and EA (13.4%), agreeing well with observational data (1850-2000). The DJF NAO has a strong influence on the DJF temperature, rainfall and evaporation minus precipitation (E-P) over the Caspian sub-basins (Volga, Ural, Terek and Kura). Furthermore, 1° model climate projections (2020-2100 CE) are performed with different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) to examine likely changes in the NAO and EA and their influence on the Caspian catchment. The NAO under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios remains the leading mode with the highest variance and influences E-P with increased precipitation over the Volga basin and increased evaporation over the Caspian Sea. The above canceling effects act on the hydroclimate variability in the Caspian sub-basins. Moreover, it is indicated that no substantial change is predicted in the CSL by the year 2100. Keywords: North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), CESM1.2.2 resolutions, Evaporation minus Precipitation (E-P), RCP4.5, RCP8.5

  11. Atmospheric summer teleconnections and Greenland Ice Sheet surface mass variations: insights from MERRA-2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lim, Young-Kwon; Schubert, Siegfried D; Molod, Andrea M; Cullather, Richard I; Zhao, Bin; Nowicki, Sophie M J; Lee, Jae N; Velicogna, Isabella

    2016-01-01

    The relationship between leading atmospheric teleconnection patterns and Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) temperature, precipitation, and surface mass balance (SMB) are investigated for the last 36 summers (1979–2014) based on Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications version 2 reanalyses. The results indicate that the negative phase of both the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Arctic Oscillation, associated with warm and dry conditions for the GrIS, lead to SMB decreases within 0–1 months. Furthermore, the positive phase of the East Atlantic (EA) pattern often lags the negative NAO, reflecting a dynamical linkage between these modes that acts to further enhance the warm and dry conditions over the GrIS, leading to a favorable environment for enhanced surface mass loss. The development of a strong negative NAO in combination with a strong positive EA in recent years leads to significantly larger GrIS warming compared to when the negative NAO occurs in combination with a negative or weak positive EA (0.69 K versus 0.13 K anomaly). During 2009 and 2011, weakened (as compared to conditions during the severe surface melt cases of 2010 and 2012) local high pressure blocking produced colder northerly flow over the GrIS inhibiting warming despite the occurrence of a strong negative NAO, reflecting an important role for the EA during those years. In particular, the EA acts with the NAO to enhance warming in 2010 and 2012, and weaken high pressure blocking in 2009 and 2011. In general, high pressure blocking primarily impacts the western areas of the GrIS via advective temperature increases, while changes in net surface radiative fluxes account for both western and eastern GrIS temperature changes. (letter)

  12. Implementation of the vortex force formalism in the coupled ocean-atmosphere-wave-sediment transport (COAWST) modeling system for inner shelf and surf zone applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, Nirnimesh; Voulgaris, George; Warner, John C.; Olabarrieta, Maitane

    2012-01-01

    The coupled ocean-atmosphere-wave-sediment transport modeling system (COAWST) enables simulations that integrate oceanic, atmospheric, wave and morphological processes in the coastal ocean. Within the modeling system, the three-dimensional ocean circulation module (ROMS) is coupled with the wave generation and propagation model (SWAN) to allow full integration of the effect of waves on circulation and vice versa. The existing wave-current coupling component utilizes a depth dependent radiation stress approach. In here we present a new approach that uses the vortex force formalism. The formulation adopted and the various parameterizations used in the model as well as their numerical implementation are presented in detail. The performance of the new system is examined through the presentation of four test cases. These include obliquely incident waves on a synthetic planar beach and a natural barred beach (DUCK' 94); normal incident waves on a nearshore barred morphology with rip channels; and wave-induced mean flows outside the surf zone at the Martha's Vineyard Coastal Observatory (MVCO).

  13. North American wintertime temperature anomalies: the role of El Niño diversity and differential teleconnections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beyene, Mussie T.; Jain, Shaleen

    2018-06-01

    El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnections induced wintertime surface air temperature (SAT) anomalies over North America show inter-event variability, asymmetry, and nonlinearity. This diagnostic study appraises the assumption that ENSO-induced teleconnections are adequately characterized as symmetric shifts in the SAT probability distributions for North American locations. To this end, a new conditional quantile functional estimation approach presented here incorporates: (a) the detailed nature of location and amplitude of SST anomalies—in particular the Eastern Pacific (EP), Central Pacific (CP) ENSO events—based on its two leading principal components, and (b) over the entire range of SATs, characterize the differential sensitivity to ENSO. Statistical significance is assessed using a wild bootstrap approach. Conditional risk at upper and lower quartile SAT conditioned on archetypical ENSO states is derived. There is marked asymmetry in ENSO effects on the likelihood of upper and lower quartile winter SATs for most North American regions. CP El Niño patterns show 20-80% decrease in the likelihood of lower quartile SATs for Canada and US west coast and a 20-40% increase across southeastern US. However, the upper quartile SAT for large swathes of Canada shows no sensitivity to CP El Niño. Similarly, EP El Niño is linked to a 40-80% increase in the probability of upper quartile winter SATs for Canada and northern US and a 20% decrease for southern US and northern Mexico regions; however, little or no change in the risk of lower quartile winter temperatures for southern parts of North America. Localized estimate of ENSO-related risk are also presented.

  14. Spatiotemporal dynamics of historical droughts over Canada: role of observational uncertainties and teleconnections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asong, Z. E.; Wheater, H. S.; Bonsal, B. R.; Razavi, S.; Kurkute, S.

    2017-12-01

    Drought is a naturally occurring environmental phenomenon, and a major costly natural hazard that can have devastating impacts on regional water resources, agriculture, energy and other social-ecological systems. Of particular interest here is drought occurrence over Canada, where drought is both a frequent and damaging phenomenon, particularly in the interior Prairie region. However, nation-wide drought assessments are currently lacking and hampered partly by observational uncertainties. Therefore, this study aims to fill these gaps by providing a comprehensive analysis of historical droughts over the whole of Canada, including the role of observational uncertainties and teleconnectivity. This is carried out by analysing different monthly precipitation and temperature products for the period 1950 - 2013. Drought events are characterized by the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) over various temporal scales (1, 3, 6, and 12 consecutive months and 6 months from April to September and 12 months from October to September). First, trends in the SPEI are investigated by means of the Modified Mann Kendall test, while the Pettitt test was used to detect change points/transition years during the period of record. Major spatial patterns of long-term change, inter/intra-annual variability and periodicity of drought events are then characterized using the Rotated Empirical Orthogonal Function, and Continuous Wavelet Transform techniques. In addition, potential key drivers of drought are investigated using Wavelet Coherence Analysis, with a special emphasis on the role played by large-scale modes of climate variability. This provides important insight into the physical and dynamical mechanisms associated with the variability of drought events over different Canadian sub-regions.

  15. Multi-scale analysis of teleconnection indices: climate noise and nonlinear trend analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Franzke

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available The multi-scale nature and climate noise properties of teleconnection indices are examined by using the Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD procedure. The EMD procedure allows for the analysis of non-stationary time series to extract physically meaningful intrinsic mode functions (IMF and nonlinear trends. The climatologically relevant monthly mean teleconnection indices of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO, the North Pacific index (NP and the Southern Annular Mode (SAM are analyzed.

    The significance of IMFs and trends are tested against the null hypothesis of climate noise. The analysis of surrogate monthly mean time series from a red noise process shows that the EMD procedure is effectively a dyadic filter bank and the IMFs (except the first IMF are nearly Gaussian distributed. The distribution of the variance contained in IMFs of an ensemble of AR(1 simulations is nearly χ2 distributed. To test the statistical significance of the IMFs of the teleconnection indices and their nonlinear trends we utilize an ensemble of corresponding monthly averaged AR(1 processes, which we refer to as climate noise. Our results indicate that most of the interannual and decadal variability of the analysed teleconnection indices cannot be distinguished from climate noise. The NP and SAM indices have significant nonlinear trends, while the NAO has no significant trend when tested against a climate noise hypothesis.

  16. Non-Linear Dependence and Teleconnections in Climate Data: Sources, Relevance, Nonstationarity

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Hlinka, Jaroslav; Hartman, David; Vejmelka, Martin; Novotná, Dagmar; Paluš, Milan

    2014-01-01

    Roč. 42, č. 7-8 (2014), s. 1873-1886 ISSN 0930-7575 R&D Projects: GA ČR GCP103/11/J068 Institutional support: RVO:67985807 ; RVO:68378289 Keywords : climate networks * nonlinearity * mutual information * teleconnections * seasonality in variance * nonstationarity Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research Impact factor: 4.673, year: 2014

  17. On Verifying Currents and Other Features in the Hawaiian Islands Region Using Fully Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System Compared to Global Ocean Model and Ocean Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jessen, P. G.; Chen, S.

    2014-12-01

    This poster introduces and evaluates features concerning the Hawaii, USA region using the U.S. Navy's fully Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS-OS™) coupled to the Navy Coastal Ocean Model (NCOM). It also outlines some challenges in verifying ocean currents in the open ocean. The system is evaluated using in situ ocean data and initial forcing fields from the operational global Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM). Verification shows difficulties in modelling downstream currents off the Hawaiian islands (Hawaii's wake). Comparing HYCOM to NCOM current fields show some displacement of small features such as eddies. Generally, there is fair agreement from HYCOM to NCOM in salinity and temperature fields. There is good agreement in SSH fields.

  18. Impact of the configuration of stretching and ocean-atmosphere coupling on tropical cyclone activity in the variable-resolution GCM ARPEGE

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Daloz, Anne Sophie; Chauvin, Fabrice [CNRM-GAME, Groupe de Modelisation Grande Echelle et Climat, Toulouse Cedex 1 (France); Roux, Frank [Universite de Toulouse, Laboratoire d' Aerologie, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Toulouse (France)

    2012-11-15

    This study starts by investigating the impact of the configuration of the variable-resolution atmospheric grid on tropical cyclone (TC) activity. The French atmospheric general circulation model ARPEGE, the grid of which is rotated and stretched over the North Atlantic basin, was used with prescribed sea surface temperatures. The study clearly shows that changing the position of the stretching pole strongly modifies the representation of TC activity over the North Atlantic basin. A pole in the centre of the North Atlantic basin provides the best representation of the TC activity for this region. In a second part, the variable-resolution climate model ARPEGE is coupled with the European oceanic global climate model NEMO in order to study the impact of ocean-atmosphere coupling on TC activity over the North Atlantic basin. Two pre-industrial runs, a coupled simulation and a simulation forced by the sea surface temperatures from the coupled one, are compared. The results show that the coupled simulation is more active in the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico while the forced simulation is more active over eastern Florida and the eastern Atlantic. The difference in the distribution of TC activity is certainly linked with the location of TC genesis. In the forced simulation, tropical cyclogenesis is closer to the west African coast than in the coupled simulation. Moreover, the difference in TC activity over the eastern Atlantic seems to be related to two different mechanisms: the difference in African easterly wave activity over the west of Africa and the cooling produced, in the coupled simulation, by African easterly waves over the eastern Atlantic. Finally, the last part studies the impact of changing the frequency of ocean-atmosphere coupling on Atlantic TC activity. Increasing the frequency of coupling decreases the density of TC activity over the North Atlantic basin. However, it does not modify the spatial distribution of the TC activity. TC rainfalls are

  19. Inter-annual climate variability and zooplankton: applying teleconnection indices to two deep subalpine lakes in Italy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marina Manca

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Investigating relation between meteo-climatic indices and between-year variation in Daphnia population density and phenology is crucial for e.g. predicting impact of climate change on lake ecosystem structure and functioning. We tested whether and how two teleconnection indices calculated for the winter period, namely the East Atlantic pattern (EADJF and the Eastern Mediterranean Pattern (EMPDJF were correlated with Daphnia population growth in two Italian subalpine lakes, Garda and Maggiore. We investigated between-lake temporal coherence in: i water temperature within the water layer in which Daphnia is distributed; ii timing of Daphnia initial and spring maximum population density peak and iii the level of Daphnia spring maximum population density peak over an eleven-year period (1998-2008 of unchanged predation pressure by fish and invertebrates, and of common oligotrophy. Between-lake temporal coherence was high for an earlier start, an earlier, and lower, Daphnia population spring density peak after milder winters. Peak density level was coherently, positively correlated with soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP concentration. We hypothesized that Daphnia peak densities were related to atmospheric modes of variability in winter and to the degree of late winter mixing promoting replenishment of algal nutrients into upper water layers and phytoplankton growth, enhancing food availability and Daphnia fecundity, promoting Daphnia peak. 

  20. Cold Episodes, Their Precursors and Teleconnections in the Central Peruvian Andes (1958-2009)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sulca, J. C.; Vuille, M. F.; Trasmonte, G.; Silva, Y.; Takahashi, K.

    2014-12-01

    The Mantaro valley (MV) is located in the central Peruvian Andes. Occasionally, cold episodes are observed during the austral summer (January-March), which strongly damage crops. However, little is known about the causes and impacts of such cold episodes in the MV. The main goal of this study is thus to characterize cold episodes in the MV and assess their large-scale circulation and teleconnections over South America (SA) during austral summer. To identify cold events in the MV daily minimum temperature for the period 1958-2009 from Huayao station, located within the MV was used. We defined a cold episode as the period when daily minimum temperature drops below the 10-percentile for at least one day. Several gridded reanalysis and satellite products were used to characterize the large-scale circulation, cloud cover and rainfall over SA associated with these events for same period. Cold episodes in the MV are associated with positive OLR anomalies, which extend over much of the central Andes, indicating reduced convective cloud cover during these extremes, but also affirm the large-scale nature of these events. At the same time, northeastern Brazil (NEB) registers negative OLR anomalies, strong convective activity and enhanced cloud cover because displacement of the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ) toward the northeast of its climatologic position. Further, it is associated with a weakening of the Bolivian High - Nordeste Low (BH-NL) system at upper levels, but also influenced by a low-level migratory high-pressure center develops at 30°S, 50°W; propagating from mid- to low latitudes as part of an extratropical Rossby wave train. In conclusion, cold episodes in the MV appear to be caused by radiative cooling associated with reduced cloudiness, rather than cold air advection. The reduced cloud cover in turn results from a robust large-scale pattern of westerly wind anomalies over central Peruvian Andes, inhibiting moisture influx, convective activity and

  1. El Nino-like Teleconnection Increases California Precipitation in Response to Warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allen, R.

    2017-12-01

    Future California (CA) precipitation projections, including those from the most recent Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), remain uncertain. This uncertainty is related to several factors, including relatively large internal climate variability, model shortcomings, and because CA lies within a transition zone, where mid-latitude regions are expected to become wetter and subtropical regions drier. Here, we use a multitude of models to show CA may receive more precipitation in the future under a business-as-usual scenario. The boreal winter season-when most of the CA precipitation increase occurs-is associated with robust changes in the mean circulation reminiscent of an El Nino teleconnection. Using idealized simulations with two different models, we further show that warming of tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures accounts for these changes. Models that better simulate the observed El Nino-CA precipitation teleconnection yield larger, and more consistent increases in CA precipitation through the twenty-first century.

  2. El Niño-like teleconnection increases California precipitation in response to warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allen, Robert J.; Luptowitz, Rainer

    2017-07-01

    Future California (CA) precipitation projections, including those from the most recent Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), remain uncertain. This uncertainty is related to several factors, including relatively large internal climate variability, model shortcomings, and because CA lies within a transition zone, where mid-latitude regions are expected to become wetter and subtropical regions drier. Here, we use a multitude of models to show CA may receive more precipitation in the future under a business-as-usual scenario. The boreal winter season-when most of the CA precipitation increase occurs-is associated with robust changes in the mean circulation reminiscent of an El Niño teleconnection. Using idealized simulations with two different models, we further show that warming of tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures accounts for these changes. Models that better simulate the observed El Niño-CA precipitation teleconnection yield larger, and more consistent increases in CA precipitation through the twenty-first century.

  3. Climate Change Amplifications of Climate-Fire Teleconnections in the Southern Hemisphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mariani, Michela; Holz, Andrés.; Veblen, Thomas T.; Williamson, Grant; Fletcher, Michael-Shawn; Bowman, David M. J. S.

    2018-05-01

    Recent changes in trend and variability of the main Southern Hemisphere climate modes are driven by a variety of factors, including increasing atmospheric greenhouse gases, changes in tropical sea surface temperature, and stratospheric ozone depletion and recovery. One of the most important implications for climatic change is its effect via climate teleconnections on natural ecosystems, water security, and fire variability in proximity to populated areas, thus threatening human lives and properties. Only sparse and fragmentary knowledge of relationships between teleconnections, lightning strikes, and fire is available during the observed record within the Southern Hemisphere. This constitutes a major knowledge gap for undertaking suitable management and conservation plans. Our analysis of documentary fire records from Mediterranean and temperate regions across the Southern Hemisphere reveals a critical increased strength of climate-fire teleconnections during the onset of the 21st century including a tight coupling between lightning-ignited fire occurrences, the upward trend in the Southern Annular Mode, and rising temperatures across the Southern Hemisphere.

  4. Decadal oscillation of autumn precipitation in Central Vietnam modulated by the East Pacific–North Pacific (EP–NP) teleconnection

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li, R; Wang, S-Y; Gillies, R R; Cho, C; Buckley, B M; Truong, L H

    2015-01-01

    Autumn precipitation over Central Vietnam is associated with an increase in the occurrence of tropical cyclones that lead to frequent flooding and pose a significant threat to lives and property. The present analyses reveal a pronounced decadal oscillation of autumn precipitation in Central Vietnam within the 8–11 year frequency band that is modulated by the East Pacific–North Pacific (EP–NP) teleconnection. The negative phase of the EP–NP pattern is associated with a positive sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly in the South China Sea (SCS) that induces low-level convergence, enhances convection, and increases precipitation over Central Vietnam and adjacent islands including Hainan (China) and the Philippines. This circulation feature around the SCS is embedded in a large-scale circulation associated with SST anomalies across the Pacific Ocean—i.e., cooling in the Eastern and Central tropical Pacific sandwiched by warming in the North and South Pacific as well as the Western Pacific Ocean. The positive phase of the EP–NP features opposite SST and circulation anomalies, with the result being reduced rainfall in Central Vietnam. This out-of-phase relationship and shared decadal spectral coherence between the EP–NP index and autumn precipitation in Central Vietnam might be useful for future climate predictions and flood management. (letter)

  5. Impacts of the Mesoscale Ocean-Atmosphere Coupling on the Peru-Chile Ocean Dynamics: The Current-Induced Wind Stress Modulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oerder, V.; Colas, F.; Echevin, V.; Masson, S.; Lemarié, F.

    2018-02-01

    The ocean dynamical responses to the surface current-wind stress interaction at the oceanic mesoscale are investigated in the South-East Pacific using a high-resolution regional ocean-atmosphere coupled model. Two simulations are compared: one includes the surface current in the wind stress computation while the other does not. In the coastal region, absolute wind velocities are different between the two simulations but the wind stress remains very similar. As a consequence, the mean regional oceanic circulation is almost unchanged. On the contrary, the mesoscale activity is strongly reduced when taking into account the effect of the surface current on the wind stress. This is caused by a weakening of the eddy kinetic energy generation near the coast by the wind work and to intensified offshore eddy damping. We show that, above coherent eddies, the current-stress interaction generates eddy damping through Ekman pumping and eddy kinetic energy dissipation through wind work. This alters significantly the coherent eddy vertical structures compared with the control simulation, weakening the temperature and vorticity anomalies and increasing strongly the vertical velocity anomalies associated to eddies.

  6. Strong Links Between Teleconnections and Ecosystem Exchange Found at a Pacific Northwest Old-Growth Forest from Flux Tower and MODIS EVI Data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wharton, S; Chasmer, L; Falk, M; Paw U, K T

    2009-03-12

    Variability in three Pacific teleconnection patterns are examined to see if net carbon exchange at a low-elevation, old-growth forest is affected by climatic changes associated with these periodicities. Examined are the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Pacific/North American Oscillation (PNA) and El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). We use nine years of eddy covariance CO{sub 2}, H{sub 2}O and energy fluxes measured at the Wind River AmeriFlux site, Washington, USA and eight years of tower-pixel remote sensing data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) to address this question. We compute a new Composite Climate Index (CCI) based on the three Pacific Oscillations to divide the measurement period into positive- (2003 and 2005), negative- (1999 and 2000) and neutral-phase climate years (2001, 2002, 2004, 2006 and 2007). The forest transitioned from an annual net carbon sink (NEP = + 217 g C m{sup -2} year{sup -1}, 1999) to a source (NEP = - 100 g C m{sup -2} year{sup -1}, 2003) during two dominant teleconnection patterns. Net ecosystem productivity (NEP), water use efficiency (WUE) and light use efficiency (LUE) were significantly different (P < 0.01) during positive (NEP = -0.27 g C m{sup -2} day{sup -1}, WUE = 4.1 mg C/g H{sub 2}O, LUE = 0.94 g C MJ{sup -1}) and negative (NEP = +0.37 g C m{sup -2} day{sup -1}, WUE = 3.4 mg C/g H{sub 2}O, LUE = 0.83 g C MJ{sup -1}) climate phases. The CCI was linked to variability in the MODIS Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) but not to MODIS Fraction of absorbed Photosynthetically Active Radiation (FPAR). EVI was highest during negative climate phases (1999 and 2000) and was positively correlated with NEP and showed potential for using MODIS to estimate teleconnection-driven anomalies in ecosystem CO{sub 2} exchange in old-growth forests. This work suggests that any increase in the strength or frequency of ENSO coinciding with in-phase, low frequency Pacific oscillations (PDO and PNA) will likely increase

  7. Trans-Pacific ENSO teleconnections pose a correlated risk to global agriculture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, W. B.; Seager, R.; Cane, M. A.; Baethgen, W.

    2017-12-01

    The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a major source of interannual climate variability, particularly in the Pacific Basin. ENSO life-cycles tend to evolve over multiple years, as do the associated trans-Pacific ENSO teleconnections. This analysis, however, represents the first attempt to characterize the structure of the risk posed by ENSO to wheat, maize and soybean production across the Pacific Basin. Our results indicate that most ENSO teleconnections relevant for crop flowering seasons are the result of a single trans-Pacific circulation anomaly that develops in boreal summer and persists through the spring. During the late summer and early fall of a developing ENSO event, the tropical Pacific forces an atmospheric anomaly in the midlatitudes that spans the Pacific Basin. This teleconnection directly links the soybean and maize growing seasons of the US, Mexico and China. It also connects the wheat growing seasons of Argentina, southern Brazil and Australia. The ENSO event peaks in boreal winter, when the atmospheric circulation anomalies intensify and affect maize and soybeans in southeast South America. As the event decays, the ENSO-induced circulation anomalies persist through the wheat flowering seasons in China and the US. While the prospect of ENSO forcing simultaneous droughts in major food producing regions seems disastrous, there may be a silver lining from the perspective of global food security: trans-Pacific ENSO teleconnections to yields are often offsetting between major producing regions in the eastern and western portions of the Pacific Basin. El Niños tend to create good maize and soybean growing conditions in the US and southeast South America, but poor growing conditions in China, Mexico and northeast Brazil. The opposite is true during La Niña. Wheat growing conditions in southeast South America generally have the opposite sign of those in Australia. Finally, we investigate how trade networks interact with this structure of ENSO

  8. Teleconnections in complex human-Earth system models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calvin, K. V.; Edmonds, J.

    2017-12-01

    Human systems and physical Earth systems are closely coupled and interact in complex ways that are sometimes surprising. This presentation discusses a few examples of system interactions. We consider the coupled energy-water-land-economy systems. We show how reductions in fossil fuel emissions are inversely coupled to land rents, food prices and deforestation. We discuss how water shortages in one part of the world is propagated to other distant parts of the world. We discuss the sensitivity of international trade patterns to energy and land systems technology and markets, and the potentially unanticipated results that can emerge.

  9. Geochemistry of coral from Papua New Guinea as a proxy for ENSO ocean-atmosphere interactions in the Pacific Warm Pool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ayliffe, Linda K.; Bird, Michael I.; Gagan, Michael K.; Isdale, Peter J.; Scott-Gagan, Heather; Parker, Bruce; Griffin, David; Nongkas, Michael; McCulloch, Malcolm T.

    2004-12-01

    A Porites sp. coral growing offshore from the Sepik and Ramu Rivers in equatorial northern Papua New Guinea has yielded an accurate 20-year history (1977-1996) of sea surface temperature (SST), river discharge, and wind-induced mixing of the upper water column. Depressions in average SSTs of about 0.5-1.0 °C (indicated by coral Sr/Ca) and markedly diminished freshwater runoff to the coastal ocean (indicated by coral δ18O, δ13C and UV fluorescence) are evident during the El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events of 1982-1983, 1987 and 1991-1993. The perturbations recorded by the coral are in good agreement with changes in instrumental SST and river discharge/precipitation records, which are known to be diagnostic of the response of the Pacific Warm Pool ocean-atmosphere system to El Niño. Consideration of coastal ocean dynamics indicates that the establishment of northwest monsoon winds promotes mixing of near-surface waters to greater depths in the first quarter of most years, making the coral record sensitive to changes in the Asian-Australian monsoon cycle. Sudden cooling of SSTs by ˜1°C following westerly wind episodes, as indicated by the coral Sr/Ca, is consistent with greater mixing in the upper water column at these times. Furthermore, the coral UV fluorescence and oxygen isotope data indicate minimal contribution of river runoff to surface ocean waters at the beginning of most years, during the time of maximum discharge. This abrupt shift in flood-plume behaviour appears to reflect the duration and magnitude of northwest monsoon winds, which tend to disperse flood plume waters to a greater extent in the water column when wind-mixing is enhanced. Our results suggest that a multi-proxy geochemical approach to the production of long coral records should provide comprehensive reconstructions of tropical paleoclimate processes operating on interannual timescales.

  10. The East Atlantic - West Russia Teleconnection in the North Atlantic: Climate Impact and Relation to Rossby Wave Propagation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lim, Young-Kwon

    2014-01-01

    Large-scale winter teleconnection of the East Atlantic - West Russia (EA-WR) over the Atlantic and surrounding regions is examined in order to quantify its impacts on temperature and precipitation and identify the physical mechanisms responsible for its existence. A rotated empirical orthogonal function (REOF) analysis of the upper-tropospheric monthly height field captures successfully the EA-WR pattern and its interannual variation, with the North Atlantic Oscillation as the first mode. EA-WRs climate impact extends from eastern North America to Eurasia. The positive (negative) EA-WR produces positive (negative) temperature anomalies over the eastern US, western Europe and Russia east of Caspian Sea, with negative (positive) anomalies over eastern Canada, eastern Europe including Ural Mountains and the Middle East. These anomalies are largely explained by lower-tropospheric temperature advections. Positive (negative) precipitation anomalies are found over the mid-latitude Atlantic and central Russia around 60E, where lower-level cyclonic (anticyclonic) circulation anomaly is dominant. The eastern Canada and the western Europe are characterized by negative (positive) precipitation anomalies.The EA-WR is found to be closely associated with Rossby wave propagation. Wave activity fluxes show that it is strongly tied to large-scale stationary waves. Furthermore, a stationary wave model (SWM) forced with vorticity transients in the mid-latitude Atlantic (approximately 40N) or diabatic heat source over the subtropical Atlantic near the Caribbean Sea produces well-organized EA-WR-like wave patterns, respectively. Sensitivity tests with the SWM indicate improvement in the simulation of the EA-WR when the mean state is modified to have a positive NAO component that enhances upper-level westerlies between 40-60N.

  11. Interannual Variability, Global Teleconnection, and Potential Predictability Associated with the Asian Summer Monsoon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lau, K. M.; Kim, K. M.; Li, J. Y.

    2001-01-01

    In this Chapter, aspects of global teleconnections associated with the interannual variability of the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) are discussed. The basic differences in the basic dynamics of the South Asian Monsoon and the East Asian monsoon, and their implications on global linkages are discussed. Two teleconnection modes linking ASM variability to summertime precipitation over the continental North America were identified. These modes link regional circulation and precipitation anomalies over East Asia and continental North America, via coupled atmosphere-ocean variations over the North Pacific. The first mode has a large zonally symmetrical component and appears to be associated with subtropical jetstream variability and the second mode with Rossby wave dispersion. Both modes possess strong sea surface temperature (SST) expressions in the North Pacific. Results show that the two teleconnection modes may have its origin in intrinsic modes of sea surface temperature variability in the extratropical oceans, which are forced in part by atmospheric variability and in part by air-sea interaction. The potential predictability of the ASM associated with SST variability in different ocean basins is explored using a new canonical ensemble correlation prediction scheme. It is found that SST anomalies in tropical Pacific, i.e., El Nino, is the most dominant forcing for the ASM, especially over the maritime continent and eastern Australia. SST anomalies in the India Ocean may trump the influence from El Nino in western Australia and western maritime continent. Both El Nino, and North Pacific SSTs contribute to monsoon precipitation anomalies over Japan, southern Korea, northern and central China. By optimizing SST variability signals from the world ocean basins using CEC, the overall predictability of ASM can be substantially improved.

  12. Interdecadal modulation of El Niño teleconnection on monsoon Asia climate over the past five centuries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, J.; Xie, S. P.

    2017-12-01

    The El Niño influence on monsoon Asia climate weakened during the mid-20th century and strenthened substantially after the late 1970s. Exploring the nature of such an interdecadal variation is constrained by short instrumental records. Here we synthesize the Indo-Pacific tree-rings and coral records to reconstruct monsoon Asia temperature and moisture change during the past five centuries, and show that the interdecadal modulation of El Niño teleconnection on monsoon Asia climate is a robust feature beyond the instrumenal era. Comparison with proxy El Niño records indicates that the El Niño-monsoon Asia climate teleconnection is controlled by interdecadal changes in ENSO variance, with strong (weak) teleconnection in periods of high (low) variance, respectively.

  13. Circulation and teleconnection mechanisms of Northeast Brazil droughts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hastenrath, Stefan

    2006-08-01

    The Northern Nordeste of Brazil has its short rainy season narrowly concentrated around March-April, when the interhemispheric southward gradient of sea surface temperature (SST) is weakest and the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), which is the main rainbearing system for the Nordeste, reaches its southernmost position in the course of the year. The recurrent Secas (droughts) have a severe socio-economic impact in this semi-arid region. In drought years, the pre-season (October-January) rainfall is scarce, the interhemispheric SST gradient weakened and the basin-wide southerly (northerly) wind component enhanced (reduced), all manifestations of an anomalously far northward ITCZ position. Apart from this ensemble of Atlantic indicators, the Secas also tend to be preceded by anomalously warm equatorial Pacific waters in January. During El Niño years, an upper-tropospheric wave train extends from the equatorial eastern Pacific to the northern tropical Atlantic, affecting the patterns of upper-tropospheric topography and divergence, and hence of vertical motion over the Atlantic. The altered vertical motion leads to a weaker meridional pressure gradient on the equatorward flank of the North Atlantic subtropical high, and thus weaker North Atlantic tradewinds. The concomitant reduction of evaporation and wind stirring allows for warmer surface waters in the tropical North Atlantic and thus steeper interhemispheric meridional thermal gradient. Consequently, the ITCZ stays anomalously far North and the Nordeste rainy season becomes deficient.

  14. Temporal changes in the Euphrates and Tigris discharges and teleconnections

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sen, O L; Unal, A; Bozkurt, D; Kindap, T

    2011-01-01

    The streamflow timings of the Euphrates and Tigris, two important snow-fed rivers in the Middle East, are found to be shifting to earlier days in the year. Six out of eight stations indicate statistically significant shifts between two consecutive 17-year periods (i.e. 1972-88 and 1990-2006). Among these stations, the average shift to earlier times is over 5 days, suggesting earlier spring melting of snowpack due to increased temperatures in the second period. A striking increase in the discharges takes place during the first half of March, and it is observed at all stream gauging sites considered in this study. An analysis based on the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data indicates that warming which results in this increase is associated with the switching from the northeasterly flow to southwesterly flow over the Black Sea and western Anatolia caused by the weakening of the Siberian High over eastern Europe. These changes in the circulation features from the first to second periods are found to be very consistent with the positive and negative phases of the North Sea-Caspian pattern.

  15. Globalization and pollution: tele-connecting local primary PM2.5 emissions to global consumption

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meng, Jing; Liu, Junfeng; Xu, Yuan; Guan, Dabo; Liu, Zhu; Huang, Ye; Tao, Shu

    2016-11-01

    Globalization pushes production and consumption to geographically diverse locations and generates a variety of sizeable opportunities and challenges. The distribution and associated effects of short-lived primary fine particulate matter (PM2.5), a representative of local pollution, are significantly affected by the consumption through global supply chain. Tele-connection is used here to represent the link between production and consumption activity at large distances. In this study, we develop a global consumption-based primary PM2.5 emission inventory to track primary PM2.5 emissions embodied in the supply chain and evaluate the extent to which local PM2.5 emissions are triggered by international trade. We further adopt consumption-based accounting and identify the global original source that produced the emissions. We find that anthropogenic PM2.5 emissions from industrial sectors accounted for 24 Tg globally in 2007; approximately 30% (7.2 Tg) of these emissions were embodied in export of products principally from Brazil, South Africa, India and China (3.8 Tg) to developed countries. Large differences (up to 10 times) in the embodied emissions intensity between net importers and exporters greatly increased total global PM2.5 emissions. Tele-connecting production and consumption activity provides valuable insights with respect to mitigating long-range transboundary air pollution and prompts concerted efforts aiming at more environmentally conscious globalization.

  16. Investigation of hydrological variability in the Korean Peninsula with the ENSO teleconnections

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Yoon

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available This study analyzes nonlinear behavior links with atmospheric teleconnections between hydrologic variables and climate indices using statistical models during warm season (June to September over the Korean Peninsula (KP. The ocean-related major climate factor, which is the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO was used to analyze the atmospheric teleconnections by principal component analysis (PCA and a singular spectrum analysis (SSA. The nonlinear lag time correlations between climate indices and hydrologic variables are calculated by Mutual Information (MI technique. The nonlinear correlation coefficients (CCs by MI were higher than linear CCs, and ENSO shows a few months of lag time correlation. The warm season hydrologic variables in KP shows a significant increasing tendency during the warm pool (WP, and the cold tongue (CT El Niño decaying years shows a significant decreasing tendency, while the La Niña year shows slightly above normal conditions, respectively. A better understanding of the relationship between climate indices and streamflow, and their local impacts can help to prepare for the river discharge management by water managers and scientists. Furthermore, these results provide useful data for policy makers and end-users to support long-range water resources prediction and water-related policy.

  17. Globalization and pollution: tele-connecting local primary PM2.5 emissions to global consumption

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meng, Jing; Xu, Yuan; Guan, Dabo; Liu, Zhu; Huang, Ye; Tao, Shu

    2016-01-01

    Globalization pushes production and consumption to geographically diverse locations and generates a variety of sizeable opportunities and challenges. The distribution and associated effects of short-lived primary fine particulate matter (PM2.5), a representative of local pollution, are significantly affected by the consumption through global supply chain. Tele-connection is used here to represent the link between production and consumption activity at large distances. In this study, we develop a global consumption-based primary PM2.5 emission inventory to track primary PM2.5 emissions embodied in the supply chain and evaluate the extent to which local PM2.5 emissions are triggered by international trade. We further adopt consumption-based accounting and identify the global original source that produced the emissions. We find that anthropogenic PM2.5 emissions from industrial sectors accounted for 24 Tg globally in 2007; approximately 30% (7.2 Tg) of these emissions were embodied in export of products principally from Brazil, South Africa, India and China (3.8 Tg) to developed countries. Large differences (up to 10 times) in the embodied emissions intensity between net importers and exporters greatly increased total global PM2.5 emissions. Tele-connecting production and consumption activity provides valuable insights with respect to mitigating long-range transboundary air pollution and prompts concerted efforts aiming at more environmentally conscious globalization. PMID:27956874

  18. Globalization and pollution: tele-connecting local primary PM2.5 emissions to global consumption.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meng, Jing; Liu, Junfeng; Xu, Yuan; Guan, Dabo; Liu, Zhu; Huang, Ye; Tao, Shu

    2016-11-01

    Globalization pushes production and consumption to geographically diverse locations and generates a variety of sizeable opportunities and challenges. The distribution and associated effects of short-lived primary fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ), a representative of local pollution, are significantly affected by the consumption through global supply chain. Tele-connection is used here to represent the link between production and consumption activity at large distances. In this study, we develop a global consumption-based primary PM 2.5 emission inventory to track primary PM 2.5 emissions embodied in the supply chain and evaluate the extent to which local PM 2.5 emissions are triggered by international trade. We further adopt consumption-based accounting and identify the global original source that produced the emissions. We find that anthropogenic PM 2.5 emissions from industrial sectors accounted for 24 Tg globally in 2007; approximately 30% (7.2 Tg) of these emissions were embodied in export of products principally from Brazil, South Africa, India and China (3.8 Tg) to developed countries. Large differences (up to 10 times) in the embodied emissions intensity between net importers and exporters greatly increased total global PM 2.5 emissions. Tele-connecting production and consumption activity provides valuable insights with respect to mitigating long-range transboundary air pollution and prompts concerted efforts aiming at more environmentally conscious globalization.

  19. Abrupt climate change and high to low latitude teleconnections as simulated in climate models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cvijanovic, Ivana

    of the present day atmospheric mid-latitude energy transport compared to that of the Last Glacial Maximum, suggesting its ability to reorganize more easily and thereby dampen high latitude temperature anomalies that could arise from changes in the oceanic transport. The role of tropical SSTs in the tropical......High to low latitude atmospheric teleconnections have been a topic of increasing scientific interest since it was shown that high latitude extratropical forcing can induce tropical precipitation shifts through atmosphere-surface ocean interactions. In this thesis, several aspects of high to low...... precipitation shifts was further re-examined in idealized simulations with the fixed tropical sea surface temperatures, showing that the SST changes are fundamental to the tropical precipitation shifts. Regarding the high latitude energy loss, it was shown that the main energy compensation comes from...

  20. A New Inter-Hemispheric Teleconnection Increases Predictability of Winter Precipitation in Southwestern US

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mamalakis, A.; Yu, J. Y.; Randerson, J. T.; AghaKouchak, A.; Foufoula-Georgiou, E.

    2017-12-01

    Early and reliable prediction of seasonal precipitation in the southwestern US (SWUS) remains a challenge with significant implications for the economy, water security and ecosystem management of the region. Traditional drivers of winter precipitation in the SWUS have been linked to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), decadal/multidecadal oscillations of the sea surface temperature in northern Pacific and Atlantic oceans, and persistent high-pressure ridges over the Gulf of Alaska. However, ENSO as well as other climate modes exhibit weak statistical relationships with precipitation and low predictability as lead time increases. Grounded on the hypothesis that still undiscovered relationships between large-scale atmosphere-ocean dynamics and SWUS precipitation might exist, here we followed a diagnostic approach by which instead of restricting ourselves to the established teleconnections, we analyzed systematically the correlation of global sea surface temperature (SST) and geopotential height (GPH) with winter precipitation amounts in all climatic divisions in the SWUS, for 1950-2015. Our results show that late-summer persistent SST and GPH anomalies in the subtropical southwestern Pacific are strongly connected with winter precipitation in most climatic divisions, exhibiting higher correlation values than ENSO, and thus increasing the potential for earlier and more accurate precipitation prediction. Cross validation and 30-year running average analysis starting in 1950 suggest an amplification of the detected teleconnections over the past three to four decades. The latter is most likely a result of the reported expansion of the tropics, which has started after the 1980s, and allows SST or GPH variability at lower latitudes to affect the meridional atmospheric circulation. Our work highlights the need to understand the dynamic nature of the coupled atmosphere-ocean system in a changing climate for improving future predictions of regional precipitation.

  1. Teleconnections in Groundwater of U.S. Principal Aquifers to the Non-Stationarity of ENSO, NAO, PDO, and AMO

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gurdak, J. J.; Kuss, A. M.

    2012-12-01

    Groundwater will play an important role in society's adaptation to climate variability and change. Therefore, it is particularly important to detect and quantify teleconnections in groundwater with non-stationarity in climate variability on interannual to multidecadal timescales because of the tangible and near-term implications for water-resource management. Interannual to multidecadal climate variability partially controls precipitation distribution in space and time, drought frequency and severity, snowmelt runoff, streamflow, and other hydrologic processes that profoundly affects surface-water resources. However, the effects of interannual to multidecadal climate variability on recharge rates and mechanisms and other subsurface hydrologic processes that affect groundwater quantity and quality are largely unknown in most aquifers of the United States (U.S.) and other regions of the world. Here we use singular spectrum analysis (SSA), wavelet coherence analysis, and lag correlation to quantify the effects of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) (2-7 year cycle), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) (3-6 year cycle), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) (10-25 year cycle), and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) (50-70 year cycle) on precipitation, groundwater levels, simulated groundwater pumping, and climate varying recharge rates across the regionally extensive Central Valley (52,000 km2), Basin and Range (700,000 km2), High Plains (450,000 km2), and North Atlantic Coastal Plain (130,000 km2) Principal Aquifers (PAs) of the U.S. The results indicate that precipitation, recharge, and groundwater levels are partially affected by interannual to multidecadal climate variability and groundwater-level fluctuations are not solely a function of temporal patterns in pumping. ENSO and PDO have a greater control than NAO and AMO on variability in precipitation and groundwater levels across the U.S., particularly in the western and central PAs. At many locations, recharge

  2. Decadal-scale teleconnection between South Atlantic SST and southeast Australia surface air temperature in austral summer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xue, Jiaqing; Li, Jianping; Sun, Cheng; Zhao, Sen; Mao, Jiangyu; Dong, Di; Li, Yanjie; Feng, Juan

    2018-04-01

    Austral summer (December-February) surface air temperature over southeast Australia (SEA) is found to be remotely influenced by sea surface temperature (SST) in the South Atlantic at decadal time scales. In austral summer, warm SST anomalies in the southwest South Atlantic induce concurrent above-normal surface air temperature over SEA. This decadal-scale teleconnection occurs through the eastward propagating South Atlantic-Australia (SAA) wave train triggered by SST anomalies in the southwest South Atlantic. The excitation of the SAA wave train is verified by forcing experiments based on both linear barotropic and baroclinic models, propagation pathway and spatial scale of the observed SAA wave train are further explained by the Rossby wave ray tracing analysis in non-uniform basic flow. The SAA wave train forced by southwest South Atlantic warming is characterized by an anomalous anticyclone off the eastern coast of the Australia. Temperature diagnostic analyses based on the thermodynamic equation suggest anomalous northerly flows on western flank of this anticyclone can induce low-level warm advection anomaly over SEA, which thus lead to the warming of surface air temperature there. Finally, SST-forced atmospheric general circulation model ensemble experiments also demonstrate that SST forcing in the South Atlantic is associated with the SAA teleconnection wave train in austral summer, this wave train then modulate surface air temperature over SEA on decadal timescales. Hence, observations combined with numerical simulations consistently demonstrate the decadal-scale teleconnection between South Atlantic SST and summertime surface air temperature over SEA.

  3. North American Rocky Mountain Hydroclimate: Holocene patterns and variability at multi-decadal to millennial time scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Finney, B.; Anderson, L.; Berkelhammer, M. B.; Barron, J. A.; Steinman, B. A.; Abbott, M. B.

    2015-12-01

    A network of western North American lake sediment isotope records (calcium carbonate-δ18O) developed during the past decade provides substantial evidence of Pacific ocean-atmosphere forcing of precipitation variability during the Holocene. We present an overview of the eighteen lake carbonate-δ18O records located in the North American Rocky Mountains with a new compilation of modern lake water isotope measurements to characterize their sensitivity to variations in precipitation-δ18O and fractionation effects by evaporation. Comparative analysis of the carbonate-δ18O records that reflect precipitation isotope (δ18O) values (i.e., precipitation "isometers") indicates a sequence of time-varying in-phase and antiphase patterns between northern and southern regions during the Holocene that provide evidence for a highly non-stationary influence of Pacific ocean-atmosphere processes on the hydroclimate of western North America. We identify a prominent precipitation-δ18O dipole, which was sustained for ~2000 years between ~3.5 and 1.5 ka. The dipole contrasts with divergent earlier Holocene patterns and appears to indicate the onset of linkages between northern and tropical Pacific ocean-atmosphere dynamics as we know them today. These observations are informed by previous research on North Pacific precipitation-δ18O. Further investigation of short (observational) and long (Holocene) time scale patterns are needed to improve our understanding of the processes that 1) drive regional precipitation-δ18O responses to Pacific Ocean-atmosphere variability, and 2) cause varying internal ocean-atmosphere responses to external climate forcing.

  4. Tropical teleconnections via the ocean and atmosphere induced by Southern Ocean deep convective events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marinov, I.; Cabre, A.; Gunn, A.; Gnanadesikan, A.

    2016-12-01

    The current generation (CMIP5) of Earth System Models (ESMs) shows a huge variability in their ability to represent Southern Ocean (SO) deep-ocean convection and Antarctic Bottom Water, with a preference for open-sea convection in the Weddell and Ross gyres. A long control simulation in a coarse 3o resolution ESM (the GFDL CM2Mc model) shows a highly regular multi-decadal oscillation between periods of SO open sea convection and non-convective periods. This process also happens naturally, with different frequencies and durations of convection across most CMIP5 models under preindustrial forcing (deLavergne et al, 2014). Here we assess the impact of SO deep convection and resulting sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies on the tropical atmosphere and ocean via teleconnections, with a focus on interannual to multi-decadal timescales. We combine analysis of our low-resolution coupled model with inter-model analysis across historical CMIP5 simulations. SST cooling south of 60S during non-convective decades triggers a stronger, northward shifted SH Hadley cell, which results in intensified northward cross-equatorial moist heat transport and a poleward shift in the ITCZ. Resulting correlations between the cross-equatorial atmospheric heat transport and ITCZ location are in good agreement with recent theories (e.g. Frierson et al. 2013; Donohoe et al. 2014). Lagged correlations between a SO convective index and cross-equatorial heat transports (in the atmosphere and ocean), as well as various tropical (and ENSO) climate indices are analyzed. In the ocean realm, we find that non-convective decades result in weaker AABW formation and weaker ACC but stronger Antarctic Intermediate Water (AAIW) formation, likely as a result of stronger SO westerlies (more positive SAM). The signals of AABW and AAIW are seen in the tropics on short timescales of years to decades in the temperature, heat storage and heat transport anomalies and also in deep and intermediate ocean oxygen. Most

  5. Teleconnections associated with the intensification of the Australian monsoon during El Nino Modoki events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Taschetto, A S; Gupta, A Sen; Ummenhofer, C C; England, M H; Haarsma, R J

    2010-01-01

    In this study we investigate the teleconnection between the central-western Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) warming, characteristic of El Nino Modoki events, and Australian rainfall using observations and atmospheric general circulation model experiments. During Modoki events, wet conditions are generally observed over northwestern Australia at the peak of the monsoon season (i.e. January and February) while dry conditions occur in the shoulder-months (i.e. December and March). This results in a shorter but more intense monsoon season over northwestern Australia relative to the climatology. We show that, apart from the well-known displacement of the Walker circulation, the anomalous warming in the central-western equatorial Pacific also induces a westward-propagating disturbance associated with a Gill-type mechanism. This in turn generates an anomalous cyclonic circulation over northwestern Australia that reinforces the climatological mean conditions during the peak of the monsoon season. The anomalous circulation leads to convergence of moisture and increased precipitation over northern Australia. This response, however, only occurs persistently during austral summer when the South Pacific Convergence Zone is climatologically strengthened, phase-locking the Gill-type response to the seasonal cycle. The interaction between the interannual SST variability during El Nino Modoki events and the evolution of the seasonal cycle intensifies deep convection in the central-west Pacific, driving a Gill-type response to diabatic heating. The intensified monsoonal rainfall occurs strongly in February due to the climatological wind conditions that are normally cyclonic over northwestern Australia.

  6. The Mediterranean Oscillation Teleconnection Index: Station-Based versus Principal Component Paradigms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francisco Criado-Aldeanueva

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Two different paradigms of the Mediterranean Oscillation (MO teleconnection index have been compared in this work: station-based definitions obtained by the difference of some climate variable between two selected points in the eastern and western basins (i.e., Algiers and Cairo, Gibraltar and Israel, Marseille and Jerusalem, or south France and Levantine basin and the principal component (PC approach in which the index is obtained as the time series of the first mode of normalised sea level pressure anomalies across the extended Mediterranean region. Interannual to interdecadal precipitation (P, evaporation (E, E-P, and net heat flux have been correlated with the different MO indices to compare their relative importance in the long-term variability of heat and freshwater budgets over the Mediterranean Sea. On an annual basis, the PC paradigm is the most effective tool to assess the effect of the large-scale atmospheric forcing in the Mediterranean Sea because the station-based indices exhibit a very poor correlation with all climatic variables and only influence a reduced fraction of the basin. In winter, the station-based indices highly improve their ability to represent the atmospheric forcing and results are fairly independent of the paradigm used.

  7. Detection of the fast Kelvin wave teleconnection due to El Niño-Southern Oscillation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meyers, Steven D.; Melsom, Arne; Mitchum, Gary T.; O'Brien, James J.

    1998-11-01

    Previous analyses of the ocean state along the western American coast have often indicated unexpectedly slow and limited propagation of coastally trapped Kelvin waves associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. In contrast, theoretical and numerical ocean models demonstrate that these Kelvin waves are a rapid and long-range teleconnection between the low- and high-latitude Pacific Ocean, strongly impacting both the surface coastal currents and nutrient upwelling. Sea level variations along the western coast of North America are reexamined under the assumption that tropically forced Kelvin waves are produced in bursts of several months duration. A cross-correlation analysis, restricted to mid-1982 to mid-1983, is performed between Galapagos Island and stations along western Central and North America. A coastally trapped Kelvin wave is revealed to propagate at a speed of 2-3 m s-1 from the tropical Pacific to the Aleutian Island Chain. The observed phase speed agrees with the estimated speed of a Kelvin wave based on the average density profile of the ocean near the coast. Weaker El Niño events in 1986/1987 and 1991/1992 appear to contain a combination of this remote signal and local wind forcing. The wave propagation speed calculated from the spectral phase is shown to be sensitive to the presence of other (noise) processes in the observations. This is demonstrated through an analysis of a synthetic sea level data set that contains many of the essential features of the real sea level data. A relatively small level of red noise can give a 100% expected error in the estimated propagation speed. This suggests a new explanation for this important inconsistency within dynamical oceanography.

  8. Quantitative Estimation of the Impact of European Teleconnections on Interannual Variation of East Asian Winter Temperature and Monsoon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lim, Young-Kwon; Kim, Hae-Dong

    2014-01-01

    The impact of European teleconnections including the East AtlanticWest Russia (EA-WR), the Scandinavia (SCA), and the East Atlantic (EA) on East Asian winter temperature variability was quantified and compared with the combined effect of the Arctic Oscillation (AO), the Western Pacific (WP), and the El-Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which are originated in the Northern Hemispheric high-latitudes or the Pacific. Three European teleconnections explained 22-25 percent of the total monthly upper-tropospheric height variance over Eurasia. Regression analysis revealed warming by EA-WR and EA and cooling by SCA over mid-latitude East Asia during their positive phase and vice versa. Temperature anomalies were largely explained by the advective temperature change process at the lower troposphere. The average spatial correlation over East Asia (90-180E, 10-80N) for the last 34 winters between observed and reconstructed temperature comprised of AO, WP and ENSO effect (AWE) was approximately 0.55, and adding the European teleconnection components (ESE) to the reconstructed temperature improved the correlation up to approximately 0.64. Lower level atmospheric structure demonstrated that approximately five of the last 34 winters were significantly better explained by ESE than AWE to determine East Asian seasonal winter temperatures. We also compared the impact between EA-WR and AO on the 1) East Asian winter monsoon, 2) cold surge, and 3) the Siberian high. These three were strongly coupled, and their spatial features and interannual variation were somewhat better explained by EA-WR than AO. Results suggest that the EA-WR impact must be treated more importantly than previously thought for a better understanding of East Asian winter temperature and monsoon variability.

  9. High-Resolution Mg/Ca Ratios in a Coralline Red Alga as a Proxy for Bering Sea Temperature Variations and Teleconnections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Halfar, J.; Steffen, H.; Kronz, A.; Steneck, R. S.; Adey, W.; Lebednik, P. A.

    2009-05-01

    We present the first continuous high-resolution record of Mg/Ca variations within an encrusting coralline red alga of the species Clathromorphum nereostratum from Amchitka Island, Aleutian Islands. Mg/Ca ratios of individual growth increments were analyzed by measuring a single point electron microprobe transect yielding a resolution of 15 samples/year on average, generating a continuous record from 1830 to 1967 of algal Mg/Ca variations. Results show that Mg/Ca ratios in the high-Mg calcite skeleton display pronounced annual cyclicity and archive late spring to late fall sea surface temperature (SST) corresponding to the main season of algal growth. Mg/Ca values correlate well to local SST (ERSSTJun-Nov, 1902-1967; r = 0.73 for 5-year mean), as well as to an air temperature record from the same region. Our data correlate well to a shorter Mg/Ca record from a second site, corroborating the ability of the alga to reliably record regional environmental signals. In addition, Mg/Ca ratios relate well to a 29-year stable oxygen isotope time series measured on the same sample, which provides additional support for the use of Mg as a paleotemperature proxy in coralline red algae, that is, unlike stable oxygen isotopes, not influenced by salinity fluctuations. High spatial correlation to large-scale SST variability in the North Pacific is observed, with patterns of strongest correlation following the direction of major oceanographic features (i.e., the signature of the Alaska Current and the Alaskan Stream), which play a key role in the exchange of water masses between the North Pacific and the Bering Sea through Aleutian Island passages. The time series further displays significant teleconnections with the signature of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation in the northeast Pacific and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation.

  10. A binary genetic programing model for teleconnection identification between global sea surface temperature and local maximum monthly rainfall events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Danandeh Mehr, Ali; Nourani, Vahid; Hrnjica, Bahrudin; Molajou, Amir

    2017-12-01

    The effectiveness of genetic programming (GP) for solving regression problems in hydrology has been recognized in recent studies. However, its capability to solve classification problems has not been sufficiently explored so far. This study develops and applies a novel classification-forecasting model, namely Binary GP (BGP), for teleconnection studies between sea surface temperature (SST) variations and maximum monthly rainfall (MMR) events. The BGP integrates certain types of data pre-processing and post-processing methods with conventional GP engine to enhance its ability to solve both regression and classification problems simultaneously. The model was trained and tested using SST series of Black Sea, Mediterranean Sea, and Red Sea as potential predictors as well as classified MMR events at two locations in Iran as predictand. Skill of the model was measured in regard to different rainfall thresholds and SST lags and compared to that of the hybrid decision tree-association rule (DTAR) model available in the literature. The results indicated that the proposed model can identify potential teleconnection signals of surrounding seas beneficial to long-term forecasting of the occurrence of the classified MMR events.

  11. Free troposphere as a major source of CCN for the equatorial pacific boundary layer: long-range transport and teleconnections

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. D. Clarke

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available Airborne aerosol measurements in the central equatorial Pacific during PASE (Pacific Atmospheric Sulfur Experiment revealed that cloud condensation nuclei (CCN activated in marine boundary layer (MBL clouds were strongly influenced by entrainment from the free troposphere (FT. About 65% entered at sizes effective as CCN in MBL clouds, while ~25% entered the MBL too small to activate but subsequently grew via gas to particle conversion. The remaining ~10% were inferred to be sea salt aerosol. FT aerosols at low carbon monoxide (CO mixing ratios ( The observed FT transport over thousands of kilometers indicates teleconnections between MBL CCN and cloud-scavenged sources of both natural and/or residual combustion origin. Nonetheless, in spite of its importance, this source of CCN number is not well represented in most current models and is generally not detectable by satellite because of the low aerosol scattering in such layers as a result of cloud scavenging. In addition, our measurements confirm nucleation in the MBL was not evident during PASE and argue against a localized linear relation in the MBL between dimethyl sulfide (DMS and CCN suggested by the CLAW hypothesis. However, when the FT is not impacted by long-range transport, sulfate aerosol derived from DMS pumped aloft in the ITCZ (Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone can provide a source of CCN to the boundary layer via FT teleconnections involving more complex non-linear processes.

  12. Structurally controlled 'teleconnection' of large-scale mass wasting (Eastern Alps)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ostermann, Marc; Sanders, Diethard

    2015-04-01

    kilometers - from the Brenner Pass area located along the crestline of the Alps to mount Zugspitze near the northern fringe of the Northern Calcareous Alps. Major fault zones and intercalated rigid blocks thus can 'teleconnect' zones of preferred mass-wasting over large lateral distances in orogens. Reference: Prager, C., Zangerl, C., Patzelt, G., Brandner, R., 2008. Age distribution of fossil landslides in the Tyrol (Austria) and its surrounding areas. Natural Hazards and Earth System Science 8, 377-407.

  13. Sedimentary organic matter and carbonate variations in the Chukchi Borderland in association with ice sheet and ocean-atmosphere dynamics over the last 155 kyr

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rella, S. F.; Uchida, M.

    2012-12-01

    Knowledge on past variability of sedimentary organic carbon in the Arctic Ocean is important to assess natural carbon cycling and transport processes related to global climate changes. However, the late Pleistocene oceanographic history of the Arctic is still poorly understood. In the present study we show sedimentary records of total organic carbon (TOC), CaCO3, benthic foraminiferal δ18O and the coarse grain size fraction from a piston core recovered from the northern Northwind Ridge in the far western Arctic Ocean. TOC shows orbital-scale increases and decreases during the past ~155 kyr that can be respectively correlated to the waxing and waning of large ice sheets dominating the Eurasian Arctic, suggesting advection of fine suspended matter derived from glacial erosion to the Northwind Ridge by eastward flowing intermediate water and/or surface water and sea ice during cold periods. At millennial scales, increases in TOC might correlate to a suite of Dansgaard-Oeschger Stadials between 120 and 45 ka BP indicating a possible response to abrupt northern hemispheric temperature changes. Between 70 and 45 ka BP, closures and openings of the Bering Strait could have additionally influenced TOC variability. CaCO3 contents tend to anti-correlate with TOC on both orbital and millennial time scales, which we interpret in terms of enhanced sediment advection from the carbonate-rich Canadian Arctic via an extended Beaufort Gyre during warm periods and increased organic carbon advection from the Siberian Arctic during cold periods when the Beaufort Gyre contracted. We propose that this pattern may be related to orbital- and millennial-scale variations of dominant atmospheric surface pressure systems expressed in mode shifts of the Arctic Oscillation.

  14. Sedimentary organic matter and carbonate variations in the Chukchi Borderland in association with ice sheet and ocean-atmosphere dynamics over the last 155 kyr

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. F. Rella

    2011-12-01

    periods when the Beaufort Gyre contracted. We propose that this pattern may be related to orbital- and millennial-scale variations of dominant atmospheric surface pressure systems expressed in mode shifts of the Arctic Oscillation.

  15. Mexico's summer rainfall patterns: an analysis of regional modes and changes in their teleconnectivity

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Englehart, P.J.; Douglas, A.V. [Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciencies, Creighton University, Omaha, N.E. (United States)

    2002-07-01

    This study explores the interanual variability in Mexico's warm season rainfall. It is based on historical rainfall data (1927-1997) from a grid of 130 long-term stations. The grid provides reasonable spatial coverage over most of the country. Using Principal Component Analysis, this study delimits five relatively large sub-areas of the country. Within each of these regions, monthly station rainfall exhibits high levels of spatial coherence. The regional structures are distinct and physically plausible with respect to the climatology of Mexico. The regional time series are expressed as departures from normal. In most of these series the intra seasonal, that is, month to month, persistence is minimal; in fact, only a few of the series display significant tendencies toward nonrandom serial behavior. This study evaluates the tele connectivity between the regional rainfall series and several different indices of large-scale ocean and atmosphere variability. These indices include an El Nino-Southern Oscillation index, indices that describe the strength and position of the subtropical anticyclone belt, as well as local SSTs in the Eastern Pacific and the Gulf of Mexico. All of the tele connections analyses consider the quasi-decadal mode of variability that is commonly referred to as the Pacific Decadal Oscillations (PDO). The study results generally agree with the findings of other researchers to the extent that they indicate differential tele connectivity as a function of PDO phase. However, unlike other studies, we see no compelling evidence for non-linear behavior in the tele connections within PDO phase. Instead, the more prominent feature of the tele connections is simply that they tend to be both more spatially extensive and stronger in the positive PDO phase. [Spanish] Este estudio explora la variabilidad interanual de la lluvia de verano en Mexico. Se basa en el analisis de datos historicos de la lluvia de 130 estaciones con un periodo largo de observacion (1927-1997). La red de estaciones provee informacion espacial razonable sobre la mayor parte del pais. Mediante un analisis de agrupamiento, en el estudio se delimitan cinco regiones relativamente grandes. Dentro de cada una de estas regiones, la lluvia mensual de las estaciones exhibe niveles altos de coherencia espacial. La estructura de cada region es clara y fisicamente razonable en relacion a la climatologia de Mexico. Las series de tiempo regionales son expresadas como desviacion con respecto a la normal. En la mayor parte de estas series, la persistencia intraestacional, es decir, de un mes a otro, es minima; de hecho, solamente algunas de las series muestran tendencias significativas hacia un comportamiento serial no aleatorio. Este estudio evalua la teleconectividad entre la series de lluvia regionales y varios indices de la variabilidad oceanografica y atmosferica de gran escala, que incluyen un indice asociado a El Nino la Oscilacion del Sur, diferentes indices que describen la posicion e intensidad del cinturon subtropical de altas presiones, asi como valores locales de la temperatura del agua de la superficie del mar en el Pacifico Oriental y Golfo de Mexico. Todos los analisis de teleconexion consideran el modo de variabilidad quasi-decadal comunmente conocida como Pacific Decadal Oscilatin (PDO). Los resultados del estudio estan de acuerdo con los resultados de otros investigadores, que muestran una teleconectividad diferencial como una funcion de fase PDO. Sin embargo, a diferencia de otros estudios, no se encuentran evidencias de un comportamiento no lineal en las teleconexiones dentro de la fase PDO. En lugar de eso, el rasgo mas destacado de las teleconexiones es simplemente que estas tienden a ser mas fuertes y extensas especialmente durante una fase positiva PDO.

  16. Variability patterns of Rossby wave source

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shimizu, Marilia Harumi; Albuquerque Cavalcanti, Iracema Fonseca de [National Institute for Space Research (INPE), Center for Weather Forecasting and Climate Studies (CPTEC), Sao Jose dos Campos (Brazil)

    2011-08-15

    Rossby waves (RW) propagation due to a local forcing is one of the mechanisms responsible for wave trains configurations known as teleconnections. The term teleconnection refers to anomalies patterns that are correlated in several regions of the world, causing large-scale changes in atmospheric waves patterns and temperature and precipitation regimes. The aim of teleconnections studies is to provide a better understanding of atmospheric variability and their mechanisms of action in order to identify patterns that can be tracked and predicted. The purpose of this study was to characterize seasonal and spatial variability of atmospheric RW sources. The RW source at 200 hPa was calculated for the four seasons with reanalysis data of zonal and meridional wind. In the Northern Hemisphere (NH), the RW sources were located on East Asia, North America, North Atlantic and Pacific. The main RW sources in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) were located over Intertropical, South Pacific, South Atlantic and South Indian Convergence Zones. Extratropical regions were also identified, mainly to the south of Australia. The vortex stretching term (S1) and the advection of absolute vorticity by the divergent wind (S2) were analyzed to discuss the physical mechanisms for RW generation. In the NH, the source at East Asia in DJF changed to a sink in JJA, related to the dominance of S1 term in DJF and S2 term in JJA. In the SH, the vortex stretching term had the dominant contribution for RW source located to the south of Australia. The main forcing for RW sources at east of Australia was the advection of absolute vorticity by divergent flow. Over South America, both terms contributed to the source in DJF. The main modes of RW source variability were discussed by using empirical orthogonal functions analysis. RW variability was characterized by wave trains configurations in both hemispheres over regions of jet streams and storm tracks, associated with favorable and unfavorable areas for RW

  17. Spatial and temporal Teleconnections of Sea Surface Temperature and Ocean Indices to regional Climate Variations across Thailand - a Pathway to understanding the Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bejranonda, Werapol; Koch, Manfred

    2010-05-01

    Thailand has a long coastline with the Pacific Ocean, as part of the Gulf of Thailand, as well as with the Indian Ocean, as part of the Andaman Sea. Because of this peculiar location, Thailand's local climate and, in particular, its water resources are strongly influenced by the mix of tropical wet, tropical dry and tropical monsoon seasons. Because of the large seasonal and interannual variations and irregularities of these, mainly ocean-driven weather patterns, particularly in recent times, large-scale water storage in huge river-fed reservoirs has a long tradition in Thailand, providing water for urban, industrial and agricultural use during long dry seasonal periods. These reservoirs which are located all over Thailand gather water primarily from monsoon-driven rainfall during the wet season which, usually, lasts from May to October. During the dry season, November to April, when the monsoon winds move northward, the air masses are drier in central and northern Thailand, with rain falling here only a few days in a month. Southern Thailand, on the other hand, which is constituted mostly by the isthmus between the two oceans, stays even hot and humid during that time period. Because of this tropical climate pattern, the surface water resources in most of Thailand strongly hinge on the monsoon movements which, in turn, depend themselves upon the thermal states of the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Therefore, the understanding of the recent strong seasonal and interannual climate variations with their detrimental effects on the availability of hydrological water resources in most parts of Thailand, must include the analysis of changes of various sea-state indices in the adjacent oceans and of their possible teleconnections with regional climate indices across this country. With the modern coupled atmospheric-ocean models being able to predict the variations of many ocean indices over a period of several months, namely, those driven by El Nino- Southern Oscillations

  18. Revisiting Cholera-Climate Teleconnections in the Native Homeland: ENSO and other Extremes through the Regional Hydroclimatic Drivers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akanda, A. S.; Jutla, A.; Huq, A.; Colwell, R. R.

    2014-12-01

    Cholera is a global disease, with significantly large outbreaks occurring since the 1990s, notably in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia and recently in Haiti, in the Caribbean. Critical knowledge gaps remain in the understanding of the annual recurrence in endemic areas and the nature of epidemic outbreaks, especially those that follow extreme hydroclimatic events. Teleconnections with large-scale climate phenomena affecting regional scale hydroclimatic drivers of cholera dynamics remain largely unexplained. For centuries, the Bengal delta region has been strongly influenced by the asymmetric availability of water in the rivers Ganges and the Brahmaputra. As these two major rivers are known to have strong contrasting affects on local cholera dynamics in the region, we argue that the role of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), or other phenomena needs to be interpreted in the context of the seasonal role of individual rivers and subsequent impact on local environmental processes, not as a teleconnection having a remote and unified effect. We present a modified hypothesis that the influences of large-scale climate phenomena such as ENSO and IOD on Bengal cholera can be explicitly identified and incorporated through regional scale hydroclimatic drivers. Here, we provide an analytical review of the literature addressing cholera and climate linkages and present hypotheses, based on recent evidence, and quantification on the role of regional scale hydroclimatic drivers of cholera. We argue that the seasonal changes in precipitation and temperature, and resulting river discharge in the GBM basin region during ENSO and IOD events have a dominant combined effect on the endemic persistence and the epidemic vulnerability to cholera outbreaks in spring and fall seasons, respectively, that is stronger than the effect of localized hydrological and socio-economic sensitivities in Bangladesh. In addition, systematic identification of underlying seasonal

  19. Lake oxygen isotopes as recorders of North American Rocky Mountain hydroclimate: Holocene patterns and variability at multi-decadal to millennial time scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, Lesleigh; Berkelhammer, Max; Barron, John A.; Steinman, Byron A.; Finney, Bruce P.; Abbott, Mark B.

    2016-02-01

    Lake sediment oxygen isotope records (calcium carbonate-δ18O) in the western North American Cordillera developed during the past decade provide substantial evidence of Pacific ocean-atmosphere forcing of hydroclimatic variability during the Holocene. Here we present an overview of 18 lake sediment δ18O records along with a new compilation of lake water δ18O and δ2H that are used to characterize lake sediment sensitivity to precipitation-δ18O in contrast to fractionation by evaporation. Of the 18 records, 14 have substantial sensitivity to evaporation. Two records reflect precipitation-δ18O since the middle Holocene, Jellybean and Bison Lakes, and are geographically positioned in the northern and southern regions of the study area. Their comparative analysis indicates a sequence of time-varying north-south precipitation-δ18O patterns that is evidence for a highly non-stationary influence by Pacific ocean-atmosphere processes on the hydroclimate of western North America. These observations are discussed within the context of previous research on North Pacific precipitation-δ18O based on empirical and modeling methods. The Jellybean and Bison Lake records indicate that a prominent precipitation-δ18O dipole (enriched-north and depleted-south) was sustained between ~ 3.5 and 1.5 ka, which contrasts with earlier Holocene patterns, and appears to indicate the onset of a dominant tropical control on North Pacific ocean-atmosphere dynamics. This remains the state of the system today. Higher frequency reversals of the north-south precipitation-δ18O dipole between ~ 2.5 and 1.5 ka, and during the Medieval Climate Anomaly and the Little Ice Age, also suggest more varieties of Pacific ocean-atmosphere modes than a single Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) type analogue. Results indicate that further investigation of precipitation-δ18O patterns on short (observational) and long (Holocene) time scales is needed to improve our understanding of the processes that drive

  20. Use of Machine Learning Techniques for Iidentification of Robust Teleconnections to East African Rainfall Variability in Observations and Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roberts, J. Brent; Robertson, Franklin R.; Funk, Chris

    2014-01-01

    Providing advance warning of East African rainfall variations is a particular focus of several groups including those participating in the Famine Early Warming Systems Network. Both seasonal and long-term model projections of climate variability are being used to examine the societal impacts of hydrometeorological variability on seasonal to interannual and longer time scales. The NASA / USAID SERVIR project, which leverages satellite and modeling-based resources for environmental decision making in developing nations, is focusing on the evaluation of both seasonal and climate model projections to develop downscaled scenarios for using in impact modeling. The utility of these projections is reliant on the ability of current models to capture the embedded relationships between East African rainfall and evolving forcing within the coupled ocean-atmosphere-land climate system. Previous studies have posited relationships between variations in El Niño, the Walker circulation, Pacific decadal variability (PDV), and anthropogenic forcing. This study applies machine learning methods (e.g. clustering, probabilistic graphical model, nonlinear PCA) to observational datasets in an attempt to expose the importance of local and remote forcing mechanisms of East African rainfall variability. The ability of the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS5) coupled model to capture the associated relationships will be evaluated using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations.

  1. A comparison of observed extreme water levels at the German Bight elaborated through an extreme value analysis (EVA) with extremes derived from a regionally coupled ocean-atmospheric climate model (MPI-OM)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Möller, Jens; Heinrich, Hartmut

    2017-04-01

    As a consequence of climate change atmospheric and oceanographic extremes and their potential impacts on coastal regions are of growing concern for governmental authorities responsible for the transportation infrastructure. Highest risks for shipping as well as for rail and road traffic originate from combined effects of extremes of storm surges and heavy rainfall which sometimes lead to insufficient dewatering of inland waterways. The German Ministry of Transport and digital Infrastructure therefore has tasked its Network of Experts to investigate the possible evolutions of extreme threats for low lands and especially for Kiel Canal, which is an important shortcut for shipping between the North and Baltic Seas. In this study we present results of a comparison of an Extreme Value Analysis (EVA) carried out on gauge observations and values derived from a coupled Regional Ocean-Atmosphere Climate Model (MPI-OM). High water levels at the coasts of the North and Baltic Seas are one of the most important hazards which increase the risk of flooding of the low-lying land and prevents such areas from an adequate dewatering. In this study changes in the intensity (magnitude of the extremes) and duration of extreme water levels (above a selected threshold) are investigated for several gauge stations with data partly reaching back to 1843. Different methods are used for the extreme value statistics, (1) a stationary general Pareto distribution (GPD) model as well as (2) an instationary statistical model for better reproduction of the impact of climate change. Most gauge stations show an increase of the mean water level of about 1-2 mm/year, with a stronger increase of the highest water levels and a decrease (or lower increase) of the lowest water levels. Also, the duration of possible dewatering time intervals for the Kiel-Canal was analysed. The results for the historical gauge station observations are compared to the statistics of modelled water levels from the coupled

  2. Inter-decadal modulation of ENSO teleconnections to the Indian Ocean in a coupled model: Special emphasis on decay phase of El Niño

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chowdary, J. S.; Parekh, Anant; Gnanaseelan, C.; Sreenivas, P.

    2014-01-01

    Inter-decadal modulation of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnections to tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) is investigated in the coupled general circulation model Climate Forecast System (CFS) using a hundred year integration. The model is able to capture the periodicity of El Niño variability, which is similar to that of the observations. The maximum TIO/north Indian Ocean (NIO) SST warming (during spring following the decay phase of El Niño) associated with El Niño is well captured by the model. Detailed analysis reveals that the surface heat flux variations mainly contribute to the El Niño forced TIO SST variations both in observations and model. However, spring warming is nearly stationary throughout the model integration period, indicating poor inter-decadal El Niño teleconnections. The observations on the other hand displayed maximum SST warming with strong seasonality from epoch to epoch. The model El Niño decay delayed by more than two seasons, results in persistent TIO/NIO SST warming through the following December unlike in the observations. The ocean wave adjustments and persistent westerly wind anomalies over the equatorial Pacific are responsible for late decay of El Niño in the model. Consistent late decay of El Niño, throughout the model integration period (low variance), is mainly responsible for the poor inter-decadal ENSO teleconnections to TIO/NIO. This study deciphers that the model needs to produce El Niño decay phase variability correctly to obtain decadal-modulations in ENSO teleconnection.

  3. Teleconnections of the tropical Atlantic to the tropical Indian and Pacific Oceans. A review of recent findings

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang Chunzai [NOAA Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Lab., Miami, FL (United States); Kucharski, Fred; Barimalala, Rondrotiana [The Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics, Earth System Physics, Section Trieste (Italy); Bracco, Annalisa [School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Georgia, Inst. of Tech., Atlanta, GA (United States)

    2009-08-15

    Recent studies found that tropical Atlantic variability may affect the climate in both the tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean basins, possibly modulating the Indian summer monsoon and Pacific ENSO events. A warm tropical Atlantic Ocean forces a Gill-Matsuno-type quadrupole response with a low-level anticyclone located over India that weakens the Indian monsoon circulation, and vice versa for a cold tropical Atlantic Ocean. The tropical Atlantic Ocean can also induce changes in the Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures (SSTs). especially along the coast of Africa and in the western side of the Indian basin. Additionally, it can influence the tropical Pacific Ocean via an atmospheric teleconnection that is associated with the Atlantic Walker circulation. Although the Pacific El Nino does not contemporaneously correlate with the Atlantic Nino, anomalous warming or cooling of the two equatorial oceans can form an inter-basin SST gradient that induces surface zonal wind anomalies over equatorial South America and other regions in both ocean basins. The zonal wind anomalies act as a bridge linking the two ocean basins, and in turn reinforce the inter-basin SST gradient through the atmospheric Walker circulation and oceanic processes. Thus, a positive feedback seems to exist for climate variability of the tropical Pacific-Atlantic Oceans and atmospheric system, in which the inter-basin SST gradient is coupled to the overlying atmospheric wind. (orig.)

  4. Climate-informed flood frequency analysis based on Bayesian theory and teleconnection for the Three Gorges Dam (TGD)

    Science.gov (United States)

    DONG, Q.; Zhang, X.; Lall, U.; Sang, Y. F.; Xie, P.

    2017-12-01

    With the current global climate changing and human activities intensifying, the uncertainties and danger of floods increased significantly. However, the current flood frequency analysis is still based on the stationary assumption. This assumption not only limits the benefits of the water conservancy projects, but also brings hazard because it ignores the risk of flooding under climate change. In this paper, we relax the stationary hypothesis in the flood frequency analysis model based on the teleconnection and use the intrinsic relation of flood elements to improve the annual flood frequency results by Bayesian inference approaches. Daily discharges of the the Three Gorges Dam(TGD) in 1953-2013 years are used as an example. Firstly, according to the linear correlation between the climate indices and the distribution parameters, the prior distributions of peak and volume are established with the selected large scale climate predictors. After that, by using the copula function and predictands, the conditional probability function of peak and volume is obtained. Then, the Bayesian theory links the prior distributions and conditional distributions and get the posterior distributions. We compare the difference under different prior distributions and find the optimal flood frequency distribution model. Finally, we discuss the impact of dynamic flood frequency analysis on the plan and management of hydraulic engineering. The results show that compared with the prior probability, the posterior probability considering the correlation of the flood elements is more accurate and the uncertainty is smaller. And the dynamic flood frequency model has a great impact on the management of the existing hydraulic engineering, which can improve the engineering operation benefit and reducing its flood risk, but it nearly didn't influence the plan of hydraulic engineering. The study of this paper is helpful to the dynamic flood risk management of TGD, and provide reference for the

  5. Simulating a 40-year flood event climatology of Australia with a view to ocean-land teleconnections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schumann, Guy J.-P.; Andreadis, Konstantinos; Stampoulis, Dimitrios; Bates, Paul

    2015-04-01

    We develop, for the first time, a proof-of-concept version for a high-resolution global flood inundation model to generate a flood inundation climatology of the past 40 years (1973-2012) for the entire Australian continent at a native 1 km resolution. The objectives of our study includes (1) deriving an inundation climatology for a continent (Australia) as a demonstrator case to understand the requirements for expanding globally; (2) developing a test bed to assess the potential and value of current and future satellite missions (GRACE, SMAP, ICESat-2, AMSR-2, Sentinels and SWOT) in flood monitoring; and (3) answering science questions such as the linking of inundation to ocean circulation teleconnections. We employ the LISFLOOD-FP hydrodynamic model to generate a flood inundation climatology. The model will be built from freely available SRTM-derived data (channel widths, bank heights and floodplain topography corrected for vegetation canopy using ICESat canopy heights). Lakes and reservoirs are represented and channel hydraulics are resolved using actual channel data with bathymetry inferred from hydraulic geometry. Simulations are run with gauged flows and floodplain inundation climatology are compared to observations from GRACE, flood maps from Landsat, SAR, and MODIS. Simulations have been completed for the entire Australian continent. Additionally, changes in flood inundation have been correlated with indices related to global ocean circulation, such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation index. We will produce data layers on flood event climatology and other derived (default) products from the proposed model including channel and floodplain depths, flow direction, velocity vectors, floodplain water volume, shoreline extent and flooded area. These data layers will be in the form of simple vector and raster formats. Since outputs will be large in size we propose to upload them onto Google Earth under the GEE API license.

  6. The Characteristics of Cold Air Outbreaks in the Eastern United States and the Influence of Atmospheric Circulation Patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, E. T.

    2017-12-01

    Periods of extreme cold impact the mid-latitudes every winter. Depending on the magnitude and duration of the occurrence, extremely cold periods may be deemed cold air outbreaks (CAOs). Atmospheric teleconnections impact the displacement of polar air, but the relationship between the primary teleconnections and the manifestation of CAOs is not fully understood. A systematic CAO index was developed from 20 surface weather stations based on a set of criteria concerning magnitude, duration, and spatial extent. Statistical analyses of the data were used to determine the overall trends in CAOs. Clusters of sea level pressure (SLP), 100mb, and 10mb geopotential height anomalies were mapped utilizing self-organizing maps (SOMs) to understand the surface, upper-tropospheric Polar Vortex (PV), and stratospheric PV patterns preceding CAOs. The Arctic Oscillation (AO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and Pacific-North American (PNA) teleconnections were used as variables to explain the magnitude and location of mid-latitude Arctic air displacement. Persistently negative SLP anomalies across the Arctic and North Atlantic were evident 1 - 2 weeks prior to the CAOs throughout the winter. The upper-tropospheric and stratospheric PV were found to be persistently weak/weakening prior to mid-winter CAOs and predominantly strong and off-centered prior to early and late season CAOs. Negative phases of the AO and NAO were favored prior to CAOs, while the PNA favored a near-neutral phase. This method of CAO and synoptic pattern characterization benefits from a continuous pattern representation and provides insight as to how specific teleconnections impact the atmospheric flow in a way that leads to CAOs in the eastern U.S.

  7. Millennial-scale northern Hemisphere Atlantic-Pacific climate teleconnections in the earliest Middle Pleistocene.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hyodo, Masayuki; Bradák, Balázs; Okada, Makoto; Katoh, Shigehiro; Kitaba, Ikuko; Dettman, David L; Hayashi, Hiroki; Kumazawa, Koyo; Hirose, Kotaro; Kazaoka, Osamu; Shikoku, Kizuku; Kitamura, Akihisa

    2017-08-30

    Suborbital-scale climate variations, possibly caused by solar activity, are observed in the Holocene and last-glacial climates. Recently published bicentennial-resolution paleoceanic environmental records reveal millennial-scale high-amplitude oscillations postdating the last geomagnetic reversal in the Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 19 interglacial. These oscillations, together with decoupling of post-reversal warming from maximum sea-level highstand in mid-latitudes, are key features for understanding the climate system of MIS 19 and the following Middle Pleistocene. It is unclear whether the oscillations are synchronous, or have the same driver as Holocene cycles. Here we present a high resolution record of western North Pacific submarine anoxia and sea surface bioproductivity from the Chiba Section, central Japan. The record reveals many oxic events in MIS 19, coincident with cold intervals, or with combined cold and sea-level fall events. This allows detailed correlations with paleoceanic records from the mid-latitude North Atlantic and Osaka Bay, southwest Japan. We find that the millennial-scale oscillations are synchronous between East and West hemispheres. In addition, during the two warmest intervals, bioproductivity follows the same pattern of change modulated by bicentennial cycles that are possibly related to solar activity.

  8. The 2010 Pakistan Flood and Russian Heat Wave: Teleconnection of Hydrometeorological Extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lau, William K. M.; Kim, Kyu-Myong

    2012-01-01

    In this paper, preliminary results are presented showing that the two record-setting extreme events during 2010 summer (i.e., the Russian heat wave-wildfires and Pakistan flood) were physically connected. It is found that the Russian heat wave was associated with the development of an extraordinarily strong and prolonged extratropical atmospheric blocking event in association with the excitation of a large-scale atmospheric Rossby wave train spanning western Russia, Kazakhstan, and the northwestern China-Tibetan Plateau region. The southward penetration of upper-level vorticity perturbations in the leading trough of the Rossby wave was instrumental in triggering anomalously heavy rain events over northern Pakistan and vicinity in mid- to late July. Also shown are evidences that the Russian heat wave was amplified by a positive feedback through changes in surface energy fluxes between the atmospheric blocking pattern and an underlying extensive land region with below-normal soil moisture. The Pakistan heavy rain events were amplified and sustained by strong anomalous southeasterly flow along the Himalayan foothills and abundant moisture transport from the Bay of Bengal in connection with the northward propagation of the monsoonal intraseasonal oscillation.

  9. Implications of the permanent El Niño teleconnection "blueprint" for past global and North American hydroclimatology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Goldner

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Substantial evidence exists for wetter-than-modern continental conditions in North America during the pre-Quaternary warm climate intervals. This is in apparent conflict with the robust global prediction for future climate change of a northward expansion of the subtropical dry zones that should drive aridification of many semiarid regions. Indeed, areas of expected future aridification include much of western North America, where extensive paleoenvironmental records are documented to have been much wetter before the onset of Quaternary ice ages. It has also been proposed that climates previous to the Quaternary may have been characterized as being in a state with warmer-than-modern eastern equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs. Because equatorial Pacific SSTs exert strong controls on midlatitude atmospheric circulation and the global hydrologic cycle, the teleconnected response from this permanent El Niño-like mean state has been proposed as a useful analogue model, or "blueprint", for understanding global climatological anomalies in the past. The present study quantitatively explores the implications of this blueprint for past climates with a specific focus on the Miocene and Pliocene, using a global climate model (CAM3.0 and a nested high-resolution climate model (RegCM3 to study the hydrologic impacts on global and North American climate of a change in mean SSTs resembling that which occurs during modern El Niño events. We find that the global circulation response to a permanent El Niño resembles a large, long El Niño event. This state also exhibits equatorial super-rotation, which would represent a fundamental change to the tropical circulations. We also find a southward shift in winter storm tracks in the Pacific and Atlantic, which affects precipitation and temperature over the mid-latitudes. In addition, summertime precipitation increases over the majority of the continental United States. These increases in precipitation are

  10. Paleoclimate Records from New Zealand Maar Lakes, Insights into ENSO Teleconnections and Climatic Events in the South (West) Pacific.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shulmeister, J.; Nobes, D. C.; Striewski, B.

    2008-05-01

    The maar craters of the New Zealand Auckland Volcanic Field (36.5°S, 174.5°E) contain some of the highest resolution late-Quaternary paleoclimate records in the Southern Hemisphere. Here we integrate laminae count results from recent drilling in the Hopua Crater with existing records from the nearby Onepoto Crater (Pepper et al., 2004). In total these records cover many thousands of years between the onset of the last glaciation maximum and the early mid-Holocene. The cores are strongly laminated. Individual laminae in both craters are very fine (sub-mm to mm scale) and form couplets which comprise a darker mineralogenic rich layer and a lighter diatomaceous layer. In places these couplets are annual, and may reflect seasonal algal blooms, but in other sections of the record, notably through the late-Glacial and Holocene, the couplets are deposited at inter-annual time scales. Spectral analyses of couplet thickness counts using a fast Fourier transform (FFT) with 64 to 256-year running windows, and a 50 per cent overlap indicate strong spectral power during the LGM and markedly weaker power during both the deglaciation and early Holocene. In fact there is no spectral strength for most of these periods. Three brief (centennial duration) events punctuate this extended period of low spectral power. These occur at c. 16 ka, c. 14.8 ka and during the early Holocene. They display spectral power in the 5-7yr ENSO window and also at longer time intervals that may be consistent with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. We infer the local switching on (or up) of ENSO and PDO teleconnections and suspect these are embedded in circum-polar circulation changes. In addition to these spectral power episodes, there is a general increase in the number of couplet cycles per century between the deglaciation and the early mid-Holocene. This matches observations from Equador and Peru and suggests that trans-Pacific ENSO responses are in phase between western tropical South America and New

  11. European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — Global sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies can affect terrestrial precipitation via ocean-atmosphere interaction known as climate teleconnection. Non-stationary...

  12. The Signature of Southern Hemisphere Atmospheric Circulation Patterns in Antarctic Precipitation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marshall, Gareth J; Thompson, David W J; van den Broeke, Michiel R

    2017-11-28

    We provide the first comprehensive analysis of the relationships between large-scale patterns of Southern Hemisphere climate variability and the detailed structure of Antarctic precipitation. We examine linkages between the high spatial resolution precipitation from a regional atmospheric model and four patterns of large-scale Southern Hemisphere climate variability: the southern baroclinic annular mode, the southern annular mode, and the two Pacific-South American teleconnection patterns. Variations in all four patterns influence the spatial configuration of precipitation over Antarctica, consistent with their signatures in high-latitude meridional moisture fluxes. They impact not only the mean but also the incidence of extreme precipitation events. Current coupled-climate models are able to reproduce all four patterns of atmospheric variability but struggle to correctly replicate their regional impacts on Antarctic climate. Thus, linking these patterns directly to Antarctic precipitation variability may allow a better estimate of future changes in precipitation than using model output alone.

  13. Influence of long-range atmospheric transport pathways and climate teleconnection patterns on the variability of surface 210Pb and 7Be concentrations in southwestern Europe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grossi, C; Ballester, J; Serrano, I; Galmarini, S; Camacho, A; Curcoll, R; Morguí, J A; Rodò, X; Duch, M A

    2016-12-01

    The variability of the atmospheric concentration of the 7 Be and 210 Pb radionuclides is strongly linked to the origin of air masses, the strength of their sources and the processes of wet and dry deposition. It has been shown how these processes and their variability are strongly affected by climate change. Thus, a deeper knowledge of the relationship between the atmospheric radionuclides variability measured close to the ground and these atmospheric processes could help in the analysis of climate scenarios. In the present study, we analyze the atmospheric variability of a 14-year time series of 7 Be and 210 Pb in a Mediterranean coastal city using a synergy of different indicators and tools such as: the local meteorological conditions, global and regional climate indexes and a lagrangian atmospheric transport model. We particularly focus on the relationships between the main pathways of air masses and sun spots occurrence, the variability of the local relative humidity and temperature conditions, and the main modes of regional climate variability, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Western Mediterranean Oscillation (WeMO). The variability of the observed atmospheric concentrations of both 7 Be and 210 Pb radionuclides was found to be mainly positively associated to the local climate conditions of temperature and to the pathways of air masses arriving at the station. Measured radionuclide concentrations significantly increase when air masses travel at low tropospheric levels from central Europe and the western part of the Iberian Peninsula, while low concentrations are associated with westerly air masses. We found a significant negative correlation between the WeMO index and the atmospheric variability of both radionuclides and no significant association was observed for the NAO index. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Analysis of teleconnections between AVHRR-based sea surface temperature and vegetation productivity in the semi-arid Sahel

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Huber Gharib, Silvia; Fensholt, Rasmus

    2011-01-01

    Vegetation Index (NDVI) in the Sahel, however with different magnitudes in terms of strength for the western, central and eastern Sahel. Also the correlations based on NDVI and global SST anomalies revealed the same East–West gradient, with a stronger association for the western than the eastern Sahel......, we achieved high correlations for SSTs of oceanic basins which are geographically associated to the climate indices yet by far not always these patterns were coherent. The detected SST–NDVI patterns could provide the basis to develop new means for improved forecasts in particular of the western...

  15. Spatial and temporal variability of drought in the arid region of China and its relationships to teleconnection indices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Huaijun; Chen, Yaning; Pan, Yingping; Li, Weihong

    2015-04-01

    We studied the drought patterns in the arid region of northwestern China between 1960 and 2010 using the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI). The general evolution of drought was obtained by empirical orthogonal function (EOF), rotated empirical orthogonal function (REOF), the Mann-Kendall test, and the continuous wavelet transform method. Additionally, relationships between rotated principal component time series (RPCs) and seven selected climate indices were analyzed. The results showed that: (1) Four moisture-related spatial patterns (North Xinjiang, western South Xinjiang, Central Xinjiang, and the Hexi Corridor) were objectively defined by REOF analysis. These patterns are related to distinct geographical areas and are associated with distinct temporal variations. (2) The PDSI increased significantly in most regions of Xinjiang, while decreased in the eastern Hexi Corridor. The significant 4-8 year band is the major period band for the annual and seasonal PDSI derived. (3) The seasonal REOFs (RPCs) and EOFs (PCs) have consistent spatial distribution patterns with the annual REOF. The seasonal trends of PDSI are also the same as the annual PDSI trends, indicating space-time consistency between annual PDSI and seasonal PDSI. (4) The drought evolution in this region is affected by the area of northern hemisphere polar vortex, the Arctic Oscillation, and the North Atlantic Oscillation. In addition, the changes of drought in South Xinjiang and the Hexi Corridor may also be associated with the Tibetan Plateau High. Changes in drought pattern are expected to have a strong impact on the economic livelihood of the region, especially for agricultural production.

  16. The preconditioning role of Tropical Atlantic Variability in the development of the ENSO teleconnection: implications for the prediction of Nordeste rainfall

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giannini, A.; Saravanan, R.; Chang, P.

    A comparison of rainfall variability in the semi-arid Brazilian Nordeste in observations and in two sets of model simulations leads to the conclusion that the evolving interaction between Tropical Atlantic Variability (TAV) and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon can explain two puzzling features of ENSO's impact on the Nordeste: (1) the event-to-event unpredictability of ENSO's impact; (2) the greater impact of cold rather than warm ENSO events during the past 50 years. The explanation is in the `preconditioning' role of Tropical Atlantic Variability. When, in seasons prior to the mature phase of ENSO, the tropical Atlantic happens to be evolving consistently with the development expected of the ENSO teleconnection, ENSO and TAV add up to force large anomalies in Nordeste rainfall. When it happens to be evolving in opposition to the canonical development of ENSO, then the net outcome is less obvious, but also less anomalous. The more frequent occurrence of tropical Atlantic conditions consistent with those that develop during a cold ENSO event, i.e. of a negative meridional sea surface temperature gradient, explains the weaker warm ENSO and stronger cold ENSO anomalies in Nordeste rainfall of the latter part of the twentieth century. Close monitoring of the evolution of the tropical Atlantic in seasons prior to the mature phase of ENSO should lead to an enhanced forecast potential.

  17. Variability, trends, and teleconnections of stream flows with large-scale climate signals in the Omo-Ghibe River Basin, Ethiopia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Degefu, Mekonnen Adnew; Bewket, Woldeamlak

    2017-04-01

    This study assesses variability, trends, and teleconnections of stream flow with large-scale climate signals (global sea surface temperatures (SSTs)) for the Omo-Ghibe River Basin of Ethiopia. Fourteen hydrological indices of variability and extremes were defined from daily stream flow data series and analyzed for two common periods, which are 1972-2006 for 5 stations and 1982-2006 for 15 stations. The Mann-Kendall's test was used to detect trends at 0.05 significance level, and simple correlation analysis was applied to evaluate associations between the selected stream flow indices and SSTs. We found weak and mixed (upward and downward) trend signals for annual and wet (Kiremt) season flows. Indices generated for high-flow (flood) magnitudes showed the same weak trend signals. However, trend tests for flood frequencies and low-flow magnitudes showed little evidences of increasing change. It was also found that El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) are the major anomalies affecting stream flow variability in the Omo-Ghibe Basin. The strongest associations are observed between ENSO/Niño3.4 and the stream flow in August and September, mean Kiremt flow (July-September), and flood frequency (peak over threshold on average three peaks per year (POT3_Fre)). The findings of this study provide a general overview on the long-term stream flow variability and predictability of stream flows for the Omo-Ghibe River Basin.

  18. Instabilities in the coupled equatorial ocean atmosphere system

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dijkstra, H.A.; Vaart, P.C.F. van der

    1999-01-01

    The large-scale interaction between the ocean and atmosphere is one of the impor- tant factors of natural climate variability.The El-Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon in the Tropical Pacific is one of the most prominent examples of climate variability on interannual time scales.ENSO has

  19. Ocean-atmosphere interaction and synoptic weather conditions in ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    R. Narasimhan (Krishtel eMaging) 1461 1996 Oct 15 13:05:22

    turbances over oceans. On the other hand, these disturbances have an impact on the oceanic mixed layer, causing changes in the SST. This complex feed back process between the sea surface and the atmospheric disturbances is important in deter- mining the life span of the synoptic scale events. (Paul et al 1992). In view ...

  20. Medicanes in an ocean-atmosphere coupled regional climate model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akhtar, N.; Brauch, J.; Dobler, A.; Béranger, K.; Ahrens, B.

    2014-08-01

    So-called medicanes (Mediterranean hurricanes) are meso-scale, marine, and warm-core Mediterranean cyclones that exhibit some similarities to tropical cyclones. The strong cyclonic winds associated with medicanes threaten the highly populated coastal areas around the Mediterranean basin. To reduce the risk of casualties and overall negative impacts, it is important to improve the understanding of medicanes with the use of numerical models. In this study, we employ an atmospheric limited-area model (COSMO-CLM) coupled with a one-dimensional ocean model (1-D NEMO-MED12) to simulate medicanes. The aim of this study is to assess the robustness of the coupled model in simulating these extreme events. For this purpose, 11 historical medicane events are simulated using the atmosphere-only model, COSMO-CLM, and coupled model, with different setups (horizontal atmospheric grid spacings of 0.44, 0.22, and 0.08°; with/without spectral nudging, and an ocean grid spacing of 1/12°). The results show that at high resolution, the coupled model is able to not only simulate most of medicane events but also improve the track length, core temperature, and wind speed of simulated medicanes compared to the atmosphere-only simulations. The results suggest that the coupled model is more proficient for systemic and detailed studies of historical medicane events, and that this model can be an effective tool for future projections.

  1. Quantifying the drivers of ocean-atmosphere CO2 fluxes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lauderdale, Jonathan M.; Dutkiewicz, Stephanie; Williams, Richard G.; Follows, Michael J.

    2016-07-01

    A mechanistic framework for quantitatively mapping the regional drivers of air-sea CO2 fluxes at a global scale is developed. The framework evaluates the interplay between (1) surface heat and freshwater fluxes that influence the potential saturated carbon concentration, which depends on changes in sea surface temperature, salinity and alkalinity, (2) a residual, disequilibrium flux influenced by upwelling and entrainment of remineralized carbon- and nutrient-rich waters from the ocean interior, as well as rapid subduction of surface waters, (3) carbon uptake and export by biological activity as both soft tissue and carbonate, and (4) the effect on surface carbon concentrations due to freshwater precipitation or evaporation. In a steady state simulation of a coarse-resolution ocean circulation and biogeochemistry model, the sum of the individually determined components is close to the known total flux of the simulation. The leading order balance, identified in different dynamical regimes, is between the CO2 fluxes driven by surface heat fluxes and a combination of biologically driven carbon uptake and disequilibrium-driven carbon outgassing. The framework is still able to reconstruct simulated fluxes when evaluated using monthly averaged data and takes a form that can be applied consistently in models of different complexity and observations of the ocean. In this way, the framework may reveal differences in the balance of drivers acting across an ensemble of climate model simulations or be applied to an analysis and interpretation of the observed, real-world air-sea flux of CO2.

  2. International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set (ICOADS)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Surface marine observational records from ships, buoys, and other platform types are processed and binned creating monthly global and regional grids of the...

  3. Biogeochemical ocean-atmosphere transfers in the Arabian Sea

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Naqvi, S.W.A.; Bange, H.W.; Gibb, S.W.; Goyet, C.; Hatton, A.D.; Upstill-Goddard, R.C.

    Transfers of some important biogenic atmospheric constituents, carbon dioxide (CO sub (2)), methane (CH Sub (4)), molecular nitrogen (N sub (2)), nitrous oxide (N sub (2) O), nitrate NO super(-) sub (3) , ammonia (NH sub(3)), methylamines (MAs...

  4. Evaluation of the effects of ENSO teleconnection on climatic parameters fluctuations in Khorasan Province I.R. of Iran

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ehteramian, Kourosh; Shahabfar, Alireza; Gharaei, Sohrab M.; Jamali, Javad B.

    2004-01-01

    The long term forecasting and monitoring of climatological parameters depends on identification of all effective factors, which are affects on this phenomena. One of these parameters is the weather signal. These signals are determinable and specific pattern and occurs in the distinguished regions in the world, but it's effects are world wide. One of the famous signals is ENSO phenomenon, which have two phases. In this paper with using annual and seasonal correlations between southern oscillation index (SOI) and precipitation and temperature data the effective amounts of ENSO phases on the differences of these factors was studied in the all regions of Khorasan province in Iran, then for more comprehensive study the classification maps in relation of ENSO and variability of precipitation and temperature were drown. It was concluded that the mentioned parameters in the whole of the province especially in central and north strip have shown significant action to ENSO, in other word the average of precipitation and temperature correlation indices are negative annually and seasonally, it means when SOI amounts are increased the precipitation and temperature in Khorasan will be decreased. With regard to increasing the above weather parameters in all regions of Khorasan at the time of ENSO negative phases (El Nino condition) variations of precipitation and temperature could be related to the changes of the pattern of occurrence this phenomenon (ENSO) due to climatic change around the world. (Author)

  5. Carboniferous climate teleconnections archived in coupled bioapatite δ18OPO4 and 87Sr/86Sr records from the epicontinental Donets Basin, Ukraine

    Science.gov (United States)

    Montañez, Isabel P.; Osleger, Dillon J.; Chen, Jitao; Wortham, Barbara E.; Stamm, Robert G.; Nemyrovska, Tamara I.; Griffin, Julie M.; Poletaev, Vladislav I.; Wardlaw, Bruce R.

    2018-06-01

    Reconstructions of paleo-seawater chemistry are largely inferred from biogenic records of epicontinental seas. Recent studies provide considerable evidence for large-scale spatial and temporal variability in the environmental dynamics of these semi-restricted seas that leads to the decoupling of epicontinental isotopic records from those of the open ocean. We present conodont apatite δ18OPO4 and 87Sr/86Sr records spanning 24 Myr of the late Mississippian through Pennsylvanian derived from the U-Pb calibrated cyclothemic succession of the Donets Basin, eastern Ukraine. On a 2 to 6 Myr-scale, systematic fluctuations in bioapatite δ18OPO4 and 87Sr/86Sr broadly follow major shifts in the Donets onlap-offlap history and inferred regional climate, but are distinct from contemporaneous more open-water δ18OPO4 and global seawater Sr isotope trends. A -1 to -6‰ offset in Donets δ18OPO4 values from those of more open-water conodonts and greater temporal variability in δ18OPO4 and 87Sr/86Sr records are interpreted to primarily record climatically driven changes in local environmental processes in the Donets sea. Systematic isotopic shifts associated with Myr-scale sea-level fluctuations, however, indicate an extrabasinal driver. We propose a mechanistic link to glacioeustasy through a teleconnection between high-latitude ice changes and atmospheric pCO2 and regional monsoonal circulation in the Donets region. Inferred large-magnitude changes in Donets seawater salinity and temperature, not archived in the more open-water or global contemporaneous records, indicate a modification of the global climate signal in the epicontinental sea through amplification or dampening of the climate signal by local and regional environmental processes. This finding of global climate change filtered through local processes has implications for the use of conodont δ18OPO4 and 87Sr/86Sr values as proxies of paleo-seawater composition, mean temperature, and glacioeustasy.

  6. Carboniferous climate teleconnections archived in coupled bioapatite δ18OPO4 and 87Sr/86Sr records from the epicontinental Donets Basin, Ukraine

    Science.gov (United States)

    Montanez, Isabel P.; Osleger, Dillon J.; Chen, J.-H.; Wortham, Barbara E.; Stamm, Robert G.; Nemyrovska, Tamara I.; Griffin, Julie M.; Poletaev, Vladislav I.; Wardlaw, Bruce R.

    2018-01-01

    Reconstructions of paleo-seawater chemistry are largely inferred from biogenic records of epicontinental seas. Recent studies provide considerable evidence for large-scale spatial and temporal variability in the environmental dynamics of these semi-restricted seas that leads to the decoupling of epicontinental isotopic records from those of the open ocean. We present conodont apatite δ18OPO4 and 87Sr/86Sr records spanning 24 Myr of the late Mississippian through Pennsylvanian derived from the U–Pb calibrated cyclothemic succession of the Donets Basin, eastern Ukraine. On a 2 to 6 Myr-scale, systematic fluctuations in bioapatite δ18OPO4 and 87Sr/86Sr broadly follow major shifts in the Donets onlap–offlap history and inferred regional climate, but are distinct from contemporaneous more open-water δ18OPO4 and global seawater Sr isotope trends. A −1 to −6‰ offset in Donets δ18OPO4 values from those of more open-water conodonts and greater temporal variability in δ18OPO4 and 87Sr/86Sr records are interpreted to primarily record climatically driven changes in local environmental processes in the Donets sea. Systematic isotopic shifts associated with Myr-scale sea-level fluctuations, however, indicate an extrabasinal driver. We propose a mechanistic link to glacioeustasy through a teleconnection between high-latitude ice changes and atmospheric pCO2 and regional monsoonal circulation in the Donets region. Inferred large-magnitude changes in Donets seawater salinity and temperature, not archived in the more open-water or global contemporaneous records, indicate a modification of the global climate signal in the epicontinental sea through amplification or dampening of the climate signal by local and regional environmental processes. This finding of global climate change filtered through local processes has implications for the use of conodont δ18OPO4 and 87Sr/86Sr values as proxies of paleo-seawater composition, mean temperature, and glacioeustasy.

  7. Interhemispheric teleconnections: Late Pliocene change in Mediterranean outflow water linked to changes in Indonesian Through-Flow and Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, a review and update

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarnthein, Michael; Grunert, Patrick; Khélifi, Nabil; Frank, Martin; Nürnberg, Dirk

    2018-03-01

    The ultimate, possibly geodynamic control and potential impact of changes in circulation activity and salt discharge of Mediterranean outflow waters (MOW) on Atlantic meridional overturning circulation have formed long-standing objectives in paleoceanography. Late Pliocene changes in the distal advection of MOW were reconstructed on orbital timescales for northeast Atlantic DSDP/ODP sites 548 and 982 off Brittany and on Rockall Plateau, supplemented by a proximal record from Site U1389 west off Gibraltar, and compared to Western Mediterranean surface and deep-water records of Alboran Sea Site 978. From 3.43 to 3.3 Ma, MOW temperatures and salinities form a prominent rise by 2-4 °C and 3 psu, induced by a preceding and coeval rise in sea surface and deep-water salinity and increased summer aridity in the Mediterranean Sea. We speculate that these changes triggered an increased MOW flow and were ultimately induced by a persistent 2.5 °C cooling of Indonesian Through-Flow waters. The temperature drop resulted from the northward drift of Australia that crossed a threshold value near 3.6-3.3 Ma and led to a large-scale cooling of the eastern subtropical Indian Ocean and in turn, to a reduction of African monsoon rains. Vice versa, we show that the distinct rise in Mediterranean salt export after 3.4 Ma induced a unique long-term rise in the formation of Upper North Atlantic Deep Water, that followed with a phase lag of 100 ky. In summary, we present evidence for an interhemispheric teleconnection of processes in the Indonesian Gateways, the Mediterranean and Labrador Seas, jointly affecting Pliocene climate.

  8. Numerical model experiments on the variation of the ocean-atmosphere carbon cycle during the last 2100 years: The impact of variations of the thermahaline oceanic circulation; Numerische Modellexperimente zur Veraenderung des Ozean-Atmosphaere-Kohlenstoffkreislaufes waehrend der letzten 21000 Jahre: Der Einfluss von Variationen der thermohalinen Ozeanzirkulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schulz, M

    1998-03-01

    In order to quantify the variability of the ocean-atmosphere carbon-cycle on glacial-interglacial time scales numerical biogeochemical models are required. In this work, a modeling approach consisting of a coupling between a newly developed biogeochemical box model (16 oceanic boxes) and a three-dimensional (3D) ocean general circulation model (OGCM) was pursued. The simulation of biogeochemical processes by the box model is almost identical to state of the art 3D-models. The global OGCM (4 x 6 , 12 layers) is forced by temperature and salinity fields obtained from paleoceanographic time-slice reconstructions, and model-derived wind fields. This model setup offers several advantages: (1) The box model is driven by waterfluxes that are diagnosed from the OGCM-fields. This approach results in hydrodynamically consistent water-fluxes for the box model. (2) The OGCM results guide the selection of appropriate box-configurations for time-slices having water-mass distributions that differ from the present-day situation. (3) The high numerical efficiency of the biogeochemical model component allows for a sufficient number of sensitivity experiments. (4) Based on paleoceanographic information, the boundary conditions of the box model can be combined as a function of time in order to conduct time-dependent experiments with the box model. (orig.) [Deutsch] Die globale Quantifizierung von Veraenderungen des Ozean-Atmosphaere-Kohlenstoffkreislaufes auf glazial-interglazialen Zeitskalen erfordert den Einsatz numerischer biogeochemischer Modelle. Im Rahmen dieser Arbeit wurde hierzu ein Modellansatz gewaehlt, der aus der Kopplung eines neu entwickelten biogeochemischen Boxmodells (16 ozeanische Boxen) an ein dreidimensionales (3D) allgemeines Ozean-Zirkulationsmodell (OGCM) besteht. Die Simulation biogeochemischer Prozesse erfolgt im Boxmodell analog zu hochentwickelten 3D-Modellen. Das globale (4 x 6 , 12 Schichten) Ozeanmodell wird mit Temperatur- und Salzgehaltsfeldern, die

  9. Polyhedral patterns

    KAUST Repository

    Jiang, Caigui; Tang, Chengcheng; Vaxman, Amir; Wonka, Peter; Pottmann, Helmut

    2015-01-01

    We study the design and optimization of polyhedral patterns, which are patterns of planar polygonal faces on freeform surfaces. Working with polyhedral patterns is desirable in architectural geometry and industrial design. However, the classical

  10. Teleconnection among Asian Summer Monsoon, ENSO and PDO revealed by instrumental and historic records as well as an annual resolution stalagmite record from Lianhua Cave, northwestern Hunan, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, H.; Yin, J.; Yuan, D.; Li, T.

    2013-12-01

    weak EASM. Such teleconnections may explain the recent drought in the southwestern China. This study is supported by NSC grant 102-2116-M-002-004 to H.-C. Li.

  11. The 2015-16 El Niño - Birth, Evolution and Teleconnections from Scatterometer Observations of the Ocean Surface Winds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hristova-Veleva, S. M.; Lee, T.; Stiles, B. W.; Rodriguez, E.; Turk, J.; Haddad, Z. S.

    2016-12-01

    The 2015-16 El Niño is one of the strongest events observed during the modern instrumentation period, rivaling the two big ones observed by satellites during 1982-83 and 1997-98. Yet, the precipitation anomalies differ from the expectations that were based on these two events. While El Niño events have a significant impact on the entire Earth System, they are most easily visible in measurements of sea surface temperature (SST), sea surface height (SSH) and ocean winds near the surface. In fact, the signature eastward-blowing anomalous surface winds in the Western and Central Tropical Pacific are the pre-cursor and the main driver of the El Nino events. Here we use observations from NASA's RapidScat, EUMETSAT's ASCAT and also from collocated ECMWF analysis to monitor the evolution of the anomalous winds associated with the 2015-16 El Niño. To detect the El Nino signal, we first compute monthly means of the wind speed, wind components and wind convergence. We then perform a low-pass filter to extract the components of the larger-scale circulation and compute the 2015-2016 anomalies with respect to the corresponding months of 2014-2015. We find fast-evolving wind anomalies and relate them to the evolution of the SST field as depicted in the observations-based OSTIA product. Furthermore, we investigate the relationship between the GPM-observed precipitation and the surface wind convergence observed by the scatterometers. El Niño is known to have basin to global scale teleconnections. In addition to the characterization of the changes in the tropical Pacific, we will also describe the associated changes in the North and South Pacific. In particular, a strong anticyclonic anomaly is observed in the north-eastern Pacific. This anomalous circulation is likely associated with the subsidence (divergent) region of a stronger-than-normal Hadley cell, leading to modification of the midlatitude storm tracks and the related precipitation anomalies. Furthermore, these

  12. Polyhedral patterns

    KAUST Repository

    Jiang, Caigui

    2015-10-27

    We study the design and optimization of polyhedral patterns, which are patterns of planar polygonal faces on freeform surfaces. Working with polyhedral patterns is desirable in architectural geometry and industrial design. However, the classical tiling patterns on the plane must take on various shapes in order to faithfully and feasibly approximate curved surfaces. We define and analyze the deformations these tiles must undertake to account for curvature, and discover the symmetries that remain invariant under such deformations. We propose a novel method to regularize polyhedral patterns while maintaining these symmetries into a plethora of aesthetic and feasible patterns.

  13. Specialization Patterns

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schultz, Ulrik Pagh; Lawall, Julia Laetitia; Consel, Charles

    2000-01-01

    Design patterns offer many advantages for software development, but can introduce inefficiency into the final program. Program specialization can eliminate such overheads, but is most effective when targeted by the user to specific bottlenecks. Consequently, we propose that these concepts...... are complementary. Program specialization can optimize programs written using design patterns, and design patterns provide information about the program structure that can guide specialization. Concretely, we propose specialization patterns, which describe how to apply program specialization to optimize uses...... of design patterns. In this paper, we analyze the specialization opportunities provided by specific uses of design patterns. Based on the analysis of each design pattern, we define the associated specialization pattern. These specialization opportunities can be declared using the specialization classes...

  14. Specialization Patterns

    OpenAIRE

    Schultz , Ulrik Pagh; Lawall , Julia ,; Consel , Charles

    1999-01-01

    Design patterns offer numerous advantages for software development, but can introduce inefficiency into the finished program. Program specialization can eliminate such overheads, but is most effective when targeted by the user to specific bottlenecks. Consequently, we propose to consider program specialization and design patterns as complementary concepts. On the one hand, program specialization can optimize object-oriented programs written using design patterns. On the other hand, design pat...

  15. Pattern recognition

    CERN Document Server

    Theodoridis, Sergios

    2003-01-01

    Pattern recognition is a scientific discipline that is becoming increasingly important in the age of automation and information handling and retrieval. Patter Recognition, 2e covers the entire spectrum of pattern recognition applications, from image analysis to speech recognition and communications. This book presents cutting-edge material on neural networks, - a set of linked microprocessors that can form associations and uses pattern recognition to ""learn"" -and enhances student motivation by approaching pattern recognition from the designer's point of view. A direct result of more than 10

  16. Analysis of Sea Surface Fluxes at the Yellow Sea and East China Sea in Mid-Holocene Based on a Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System Model%基于耦合气候系统模式的中全新世黄、东海海表通量分析

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    薛玉虎; 毛新燕; 颜秀花; 赵传湖

    2014-01-01

    对中全新世(6,ka时期)海洋和气候的研究可加深人们对现阶段气候变化和海洋环境的认识,为预测未来海洋与气候环境变化提供一个重要参照.文章分析一个耦合气候系统模式 FGOALS-s2.0的模式结果,首先对其工业革命前(0,ka 时期)东亚地区夏季降水及冬、夏季10,m 风场的模拟结果进行评估,然后进一步对中全新世和工业革命前黄、东海海表大气强迫的季节变化进行了对比.结果显示:模式模拟出0,ka 时期东亚夏季降水从东南洋面至西北内陆减少的空间分布特点,冬、夏季10,m风场亦与观测大体一致;6,ka时期夏季,黄、东海风速较0,ka时期增大约0.8,m/s,16%左右;黄海风应力旋度值为正,东海为负,与0,ka 时期相比旋度绝对值均增大;同时,两海区接收的太阳短波辐射较0,ka 时期均增加,短波辐射的差异是中全新世夏季黄、东海海表的净热吸收增加的主要因子.6,ka 时期冬季,黄、东海北风加强,东海增加量在0.5~1.0,m/s,幅度约为10%,较黄海更为明显;两海区在冬季的净热释放也较0,ka 时期增大,东海释放更甚;冬季黄、东海风应力旋度较0,ka时期则无太大差别.研究表明,由于6,ka时期太阳辐射季节循环的改变,造成了黄、东海夏季风增强,海表净热通量也发生相应变化,该时期大气强迫场的变化可能会使黄、东海表层水温分布趋势发生较大改变,进而影响陆架环流格局.%It is significant to study the variations of ocean and climate between mid-Holocene(6,ka)and the present soas to provide reference for future climate prediction. Based on the results of a coupled ocean-atmosphere model FGOALS-s2.0, East Asian monsoon rainfall as well the surface wind in both summer and winter of the pre-Industrial(0,ka)are evaluated. And then atmospheric forcing on the Yellow Sea(YS)and the East China Sea(ECS)in winter

  17. Geodesic patterns

    KAUST Repository

    Pottmann, Helmut; Huang, Qixing; Deng, Bailin; Schiftner, Alexander; Kilian, Martin; Guibas, Leonidas J.; Wallner, Johannes

    2010-01-01

    Geodesic curves in surfaces are not only minimizers of distance, but they are also the curves of zero geodesic (sideways) curvature. It turns out that this property makes patterns of geodesics the basic geometric entity when dealing with the cladding of a freeform surface with wooden panels which do not bend sideways. Likewise a geodesic is the favored shape of timber support elements in freeform architecture, for reasons of manufacturing and statics. Both problem areas are fundamental in freeform architecture, but so far only experimental solutions have been available. This paper provides a systematic treatment and shows how to design geodesic patterns in different ways: The evolution of geodesic curves is good for local studies and simple patterns; the level set formulation can deal with the global layout of multiple patterns of geodesics; finally geodesic vector fields allow us to interactively model geodesic patterns and perform surface segmentation into panelizable parts. © 2010 ACM.

  18. Foam patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chaudhry, Anil R; Dzugan, Robert; Harrington, Richard M; Neece, Faurice D; Singh, Nipendra P; Westendorf, Travis

    2013-11-26

    A method of creating a foam pattern comprises mixing a polyol component and an isocyanate component to form a liquid mixture. The method further comprises placing a temporary core having a shape corresponding to a desired internal feature in a cavity of a mold and inserting the mixture into the cavity of the mold so that the mixture surrounds a portion of the temporary core. The method optionally further comprises using supporting pins made of foam to support the core in the mold cavity, with such pins becoming integral part of the pattern material simplifying subsequent processing. The method further comprises waiting for a predetermined time sufficient for a reaction from the mixture to form a foam pattern structure corresponding to the cavity of the mold, wherein the foam pattern structure encloses a portion of the temporary core and removing the temporary core from the pattern independent of chemical leaching.

  19. Geodesic patterns

    KAUST Repository

    Pottmann, Helmut

    2010-07-26

    Geodesic curves in surfaces are not only minimizers of distance, but they are also the curves of zero geodesic (sideways) curvature. It turns out that this property makes patterns of geodesics the basic geometric entity when dealing with the cladding of a freeform surface with wooden panels which do not bend sideways. Likewise a geodesic is the favored shape of timber support elements in freeform architecture, for reasons of manufacturing and statics. Both problem areas are fundamental in freeform architecture, but so far only experimental solutions have been available. This paper provides a systematic treatment and shows how to design geodesic patterns in different ways: The evolution of geodesic curves is good for local studies and simple patterns; the level set formulation can deal with the global layout of multiple patterns of geodesics; finally geodesic vector fields allow us to interactively model geodesic patterns and perform surface segmentation into panelizable parts. © 2010 ACM.

  20. Meteorological Aspects of the Eastern North American Pattern with Impacts on Long Island Sound Salinity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Justin A. Schulte

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available The eastern North American sea level pressure dipole (ENA pattern is a recently identified teleconnection pattern that has been shown to influence mid-Atlantic United States (U.S streamflow variability. Because the pattern was only recently identified, its impacts on U.S. precipitation and estuaries on daily to seasonal timescales is unknown. Thus, this paper presents the first seasonal investigation of ENA relationships with global atmospheric fields, U.S. precipitation, and mid-Atlantic estuarine salinity. We show that the ENA pattern explains up to 25–36% of precipitation variability across Texas and the western U.S. We also show that, for the Northeast U.S, the ENA pattern explains up to 65% of precipitation variability, contrasting with previous work showing how well-known climate indices can only explain a modest amount of precipitation variability. The strongest ENA-precipitation relationships are in the spring and fall. The relationships between the ENA pattern and precipitation across remote regions reflect the upper-atmospheric Rossby wave pattern associated with the ENA pattern that varies seasonally. The El-Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO is related to the spring ENA pattern, indicating that extended outlooks of the ENA pattern may be possible. We also show that the ENA index is strongly correlated with salinity and vertical haline stratification across coastal portions of the mid-Atlantic Bight so that hypoxia forecasts based on the ENA index may be possible. Statistical connections between vertical salinity gradient and ENSO were identified at lags of up two years, further highlighting the potential for extended hypoxia outlooks. The strong connection between anomalies for precipitation and mid-Atlantic Bight salinity suggests that the ENA pattern may be useful at an interdisciplinary level for better understanding historical regional climate variability and future impacts of climate change on regional precipitation and the

  1. Search Patterns

    CERN Document Server

    Morville, Peter

    2010-01-01

    What people are saying about Search Patterns "Search Patterns is a delight to read -- very thoughtful and thought provoking. It's the most comprehensive survey of designing effective search experiences I've seen." --Irene Au, Director of User Experience, Google "I love this book! Thanks to Peter and Jeffery, I now know that search (yes, boring old yucky who cares search) is one of the coolest ways around of looking at the world." --Dan Roam, author, The Back of the Napkin (Portfolio Hardcover) "Search Patterns is a playful guide to the practical concerns of search interface design. It cont

  2. Regionalizing Africa: Patterns of Precipitation Variability in Observations and Global Climate Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Badr, Hamada S.; Dezfuli, Amin K.; Zaitchik, Benjamin F.; Peters-Lidard, Christa D.

    2016-01-01

    Many studies have documented dramatic climatic and environmental changes that have affected Africa over different time scales. These studies often raise questions regarding the spatial extent and regional connectivity of changes inferred from observations and proxies and/or derived from climate models. Objective regionalization offers a tool for addressing these questions. To demonstrate this potential, applications of hierarchical climate regionalizations of Africa using observations and GCM historical simulations and future projections are presented. First, Africa is regionalized based on interannual precipitation variability using Climate Hazards Group Infrared Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS) data for the period 19812014. A number of data processing techniques and clustering algorithms are tested to ensure a robust definition of climate regions. These regionalization results highlight the seasonal and even month-to-month specificity of regional climate associations across the continent, emphasizing the need to consider time of year as well as research question when defining a coherent region for climate analysis. CHIRPS regions are then compared to those of five GCMs for the historic period, with a focus on boreal summer. Results show that some GCMs capture the climatic coherence of the Sahel and associated teleconnections in a manner that is similar to observations, while other models break the Sahel into uncorrelated subregions or produce a Sahel-like region of variability that is spatially displaced from observations. Finally, shifts in climate regions under projected twenty-first-century climate change for different GCMs and emissions pathways are examined. A projected change is found in the coherence of the Sahel, in which the western and eastern Sahel become distinct regions with different teleconnections. This pattern is most pronounced in high-emissions scenarios.

  3. Greenland coastal air temperatures linked to Baffin Bay and Greenland Sea ice conditions during autumn through regional blocking patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ballinger, Thomas J.; Hanna, Edward; Hall, Richard J.; Miller, Jeffrey; Ribergaard, Mads H.; Høyer, Jacob L.

    2018-01-01

    Variations in sea ice freeze onset and regional sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in Baffin Bay and Greenland Sea are linked to autumn surface air temperatures (SATs) around coastal Greenland through 500 hPa blocking patterns, 1979-2014. We find strong, statistically significant correlations between Baffin Bay freeze onset and SSTs and SATs across the western and southernmost coastal areas, while weaker and fewer significant correlations are found between eastern SATs, SSTs, and freeze periods observed in the neighboring Greenland Sea. Autumn Greenland Blocking Index values and the incidence of meridional circulation patterns have increased over the modern sea ice monitoring era. Increased anticyclonic blocking patterns promote poleward transport of warm air from lower latitudes and local warm air advection onshore from ocean-atmosphere sensible heat exchange through ice-free or thin ice-covered seas bordering the coastal stations. Temperature composites by years of extreme late freeze conditions, occurring since 2006 in Baffin Bay, reveal positive monthly SAT departures that often exceed 1 standard deviation from the 1981-2010 climate normal over coastal areas that exhibit a similar spatial pattern as the peak correlations.

  4. Attribution of changes in precipitation patterns in African rainforests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Otto, Friederike E. L.; Jones, Richard G.; Halladay, Kate; Allen, Myles R.

    2013-01-01

    Tropical rainforests in Africa are one of the most under-researched regions in the world, but research in the Amazonian rainforest suggests potential vulnerability to climate change. Using the large ensemble of Atmosphere-only general circulation model (AGCM) simulations within the weather@home project, statistics of precipitation in the dry season of the Congo Basin rainforest are analysed. By validating the model simulation against observations, we could identify a good model performance for the June, July, August (JJA) dry season, but this result does need to be taken with caution as observed data are of poor quality. Additional validation methods have been used to investigate the applicability of probabilistic event attribution analysis from large model ensembles to a tropical region, in this case the Congo Basin. These methods corroborate the confidence in the model, leading us to believe the attribution result to be robust. That is, that there are no significant changes in the risk of low precipitation extremes during this dry season (JJA) precipitation in the Congo Basin. Results for the December, January, February dry season are less clear. The study highlights that attribution analysis has the potential to provide valuable scientific evidence of recent or anticipated climatological changes, especially in regions with sparse observational data and unclear projections of future changes. However, the strong influence of sea surface temperature teleconnection patterns on tropical precipitation provides more challenges in the set up of attribution studies than midlatitude rainfall. PMID:23878330

  5. Developing a complex independent component analysis technique to extract non-stationary patterns from geophysical time-series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forootan, Ehsan; Kusche, Jürgen

    2016-04-01

    Geodetic/geophysical observations, such as the time series of global terrestrial water storage change or sea level and temperature change, represent samples of physical processes and therefore contain information about complex physical interactionswith many inherent time scales. Extracting relevant information from these samples, for example quantifying the seasonality of a physical process or its variability due to large-scale ocean-atmosphere interactions, is not possible by rendering simple time series approaches. In the last decades, decomposition techniques have found increasing interest for extracting patterns from geophysical observations. Traditionally, principal component analysis (PCA) and more recently independent component analysis (ICA) are common techniques to extract statistical orthogonal (uncorrelated) and independent modes that represent the maximum variance of observations, respectively. PCA and ICA can be classified as stationary signal decomposition techniques since they are based on decomposing the auto-covariance matrix or diagonalizing higher (than two)-order statistical tensors from centered time series. However, the stationary assumption is obviously not justifiable for many geophysical and climate variables even after removing cyclic components e.g., the seasonal cycles. In this paper, we present a new decomposition method, the complex independent component analysis (CICA, Forootan, PhD-2014), which can be applied to extract to non-stationary (changing in space and time) patterns from geophysical time series. Here, CICA is derived as an extension of real-valued ICA (Forootan and Kusche, JoG-2012), where we (i) define a new complex data set using a Hilbert transformation. The complex time series contain the observed values in their real part, and the temporal rate of variability in their imaginary part. (ii) An ICA algorithm based on diagonalization of fourth-order cumulants is then applied to decompose the new complex data set in (i

  6. Influence of the May Southern annular mode on the South China Sea summer monsoon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Ting; Li, Jianping; Li, YanJie; Zhao, Sen; Zheng, Fei; Zheng, Jiayu; Yao, Zhixiong

    2017-07-01

    The possible impact of the May Southern Hemisphere (SH) annular mode (SAM) on the following South China Sea (SCS) summer monsoon (SCSSM) is examined. A close inverse relationship between the two is revealed in the observations. The simultaneous South Pacific dipole (SPD), a dipole-like sea surface temperature anomaly pattern in the South Pacific, acts as the "oceanic bridge" to preserve the May SAM signal and prolong it into June-September. Observational evidence and numerical simulations both demonstrate that the SPD communicates its large thermal inertia signal to the atmosphere, regulating the Southern Pacific Subtropical Jet (SPSJ) variability over eastern Australia. Corresponding to the adjustment of circulation associated with the SPSJ is a prominent tripolar cross-Pacific teleconnection pattern stretching from the SH middle-high latitudes into the NH East Asia coastal region, referred to as the South-North Pacific (SNP) teleconnection pattern. Wave ray tracing analysis manifests that the SNP acts as the "atmospheric bridge" to propagate the related wave energy across the equator and into the Maritime Continent and SCS monsoon region, modulating the vertical motion and middle-lower tropospheric flows, and favoring the out-of-phase variation of the SCSSM. Therefore, the "coupled oceanic-atmospheric bridge" process and the related Rossby wave energy transmission are possible mechanisms for the significant influence of the May SAM on the variability of the following SCSSM. Therefore, the May SAM provides a fresh insight into the prediction of the SCSSM from the perspective of the SH high latitudes.

  7. Root patterning

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Scheres, Ben; Laskowski, Marta

    2016-01-01

    The mechanisms that pattern lateral root primordial are essential for the elaboration of root system architecture, a trait of key importance for future crop breeding. But which are most important: periodic or local cues? In this issue of Journal of Experimental Botany (pages 1411-1420), Kircher

  8. Granular patterns

    CERN Document Server

    Aranson, Igor S

    2009-01-01

    This title presents a review of experiments and novel theoretical concepts needed to understand the mechanisms of pattern formation in granular materials. An effort is made to connect concepts and ideas developed in granular physics with new emergent fields, especially in biology, such as cytoskeleton dynamics.

  9. Proof patterns

    CERN Document Server

    Joshi, Mark

    2015-01-01

    This innovative textbook introduces a new pattern-based approach to learning proof methods in the mathematical sciences. Readers will discover techniques that will enable them to learn new proofs across different areas of pure mathematics with ease. The patterns in proofs from diverse fields such as algebra, analysis, topology and number theory are explored. Specific topics examined include game theory, combinatorics, and Euclidean geometry, enabling a broad familiarity. The author, an experienced lecturer and researcher renowned for his innovative view and intuitive style, illuminates a wide range of techniques and examples from duplicating the cube to triangulating polygons to the infinitude of primes to the fundamental theorem of algebra. Intended as a companion for undergraduate students, this text is an essential addition to every aspiring mathematician’s toolkit.

  10. Pattern classification

    CERN Document Server

    Duda, Richard O; Stork, David G

    2001-01-01

    The first edition, published in 1973, has become a classic reference in the field. Now with the second edition, readers will find information on key new topics such as neural networks and statistical pattern recognition, the theory of machine learning, and the theory of invariances. Also included are worked examples, comparisons between different methods, extensive graphics, expanded exercises and computer project topics. An Instructor's Manual presenting detailed solutions to all the problems in the book is available from the Wiley editorial department.

  11. Ocean-atmosphere dynamics during Hurricane Ida and Nor'Ida: An application of the coupled ocean-atmosphere-wave-sediment transport (COAWST) modeling system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olabarrieta, Maitane; Warner, John C.; Armstrong, Brandy N.; Zambon, Joseph B.; He, Ruoying

    2012-01-01

    The coupled ocean–atmosphere–wave–sediment transport (COAWST) modeling system was used to investigate atmosphere–ocean–wave interactions in November 2009 during Hurricane Ida and its subsequent evolution to Nor’Ida, which was one of the most costly storm systems of the past two decades. One interesting aspect of this event is that it included two unique atmospheric extreme conditions, a hurricane and a nor’easter storm, which developed in regions with different oceanographic characteristics. Our modeled results were compared with several data sources, including GOES satellite infrared data, JASON-1 and JASON-2 altimeter data, CODAR measurements, and wave and tidal information from the National Data Buoy Center (NDBC) and the National Tidal Database. By performing a series of numerical runs, we were able to isolate the effect of the interaction terms between the atmosphere (modeled with Weather Research and Forecasting, the WRF model), the ocean (modeled with Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS)), and the wave propagation and generation model (modeled with Simulating Waves Nearshore (SWAN)). Special attention was given to the role of the ocean surface roughness. Three different ocean roughness closure models were analyzed: DGHQ (which is based on wave age), TY2001 (which is based on wave steepness), and OOST (which considers both the effects of wave age and steepness). Including the ocean roughness in the atmospheric module improved the wind intensity estimation and therefore also the wind waves, surface currents, and storm surge amplitude. For example, during the passage of Hurricane Ida through the Gulf of Mexico, the wind speeds were reduced due to wave-induced ocean roughness, resulting in better agreement with the measured winds. During Nor’Ida, including the wave-induced surface roughness changed the form and dimension of the main low pressure cell, affecting the intensity and direction of the winds. The combined wave age- and wave steepness-based parameterization (OOST) provided the best results for wind and wave growth prediction. However, the best agreement between the measured (CODAR) and computed surface currents and storm surge values was obtained with the wave steepness-based roughness parameterization (TY2001), although the differences obtained with respect to DGHQ were not significant. The influence of sea surface temperature (SST) fields on the atmospheric boundary layer dynamics was examined; in particular, we evaluated how the SST affects wind wave generation, surface currents and storm surges. The integrated hydrograph and integrated wave height, parameters that are highly correlated with the storm damage potential, were found to be highly sensitive to the ocean surface roughness parameterization.

  12. Influence of finite-time Lyapunov exponents on winter precipitation over the Iberian Peninsula

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garaboa-Paz, Daniel; Lorenzo, Nieves; Pérez-Muñuzuri, Vicente

    2017-05-01

    Seasonal forecasts have improved during the last decades, mostly due to an increase in understanding of the coupled ocean-atmosphere dynamics, and the development of models able to predict the atmosphere variability. Correlations between different teleconnection patterns and severe weather in different parts of the world are constantly evolving and changing. This paper evaluates the connection between winter precipitation over the Iberian Peninsula and the large-scale tropospheric mixing over the eastern Atlantic Ocean. Finite-time Lyapunov exponents (FTLEs) have been calculated from 1979 to 2008 to evaluate this mixing. Our study suggests that significant negative correlations exist between summer FTLE anomalies and winter precipitation over Portugal and Spain. To understand the mechanisms behind this correlation, summer anomalies of the FTLE have also been correlated with other climatic variables such as the sea surface temperature (SST), the sea level pressure (SLP) or the geopotential. The East Atlantic (EA) teleconnection index correlates with the summer FTLE anomalies, confirming their role as a seasonal predictor for winter precipitation over the Iberian Peninsula.

  13. Millennial-scale precipitation variability over Easter Island (South Pacific) during MIS 3: inter-hemispheric teleconnections with North Atlantic abrupt cold events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Margalef, O.; Cacho, I.; Pla-Rabes, S.; Cañellas-Boltà, N.; Pueyo, J. J.; Sáez, A.; Pena, L. D.; Valero-Garcés, B. L.; Rull, V.; Giralt, S.

    2015-04-01

    Marine Isotope Stage 3 (MIS 3, 59.4-27.8 kyr BP) is characterized by the occurrence of rapid millennial-scale climate oscillations known as Dansgaard-Oeschger cycles (DO) and by abrupt cooling events in the North Atlantic known as Heinrich events. Although both the timing and dynamics of these events have been broadly explored in North Atlantic records, the response of the tropical and subtropical latitudes to these rapid climatic excursions, particularly in the Southern Hemisphere, still remains unclear. The Rano Aroi peat record (Easter Island, 27° S) provides a unique opportunity to understand atmospheric and oceanic changes in the South Pacific during these DO cycles because of its singular location, which is influenced by the South Pacific Anticyclone (SPA), the Southern Westerlies (SW), and the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) linked to the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ). The Rano Aroi sequence records 6 major events of enhanced precipitation between 38 and 65 kyr BP. These events are compared with other hydrological records from the tropical and subtropical band supporting a coherent regional picture, with the dominance of humid conditions in Southern Hemisphere tropical band during Heinrich Stadials (HS) 5, 5a and 6 and other Stadials while dry conditions prevailed in the Northern tropics. This antiphased hydrological pattern between hemispheres has been attributed to ITCZ migration, which in turn might be associated with an eastward expansion of the SPCZ storm track, leading to an increased intensity of cyclogenic storms reaching Easter Island. Low Pacific Sea Surface Temperature (SST) gradients across the Equator were coincident with the here-defined Rano Aroi humid events and consistent with a reorganization of Southern Pacific atmospheric and oceanic circulation also at higher latitudes during Heinrich and Dansgaard-Oeschger stadials.

  14. Pattern Recognition

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aleš Procházka

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Multimodal signal analysis based on sophisticated sensors, efficient communicationsystems and fast parallel processing methods has a rapidly increasing range of multidisciplinaryapplications. The present paper is devoted to pattern recognition, machine learning, and the analysisof sleep stages in the detection of sleep disorders using polysomnography (PSG data, includingelectroencephalography (EEG, breathing (Flow, and electro-oculogram (EOG signals. The proposedmethod is based on the classification of selected features by a neural network system with sigmoidaland softmax transfer functions using Bayesian methods for the evaluation of the probabilities of theseparate classes. The application is devoted to the analysis of the sleep stages of 184 individualswith different diagnoses, using EEG and further PSG signals. Data analysis points to an averageincrease of the length of the Wake stage by 2.7% per 10 years and a decrease of the length of theRapid Eye Movement (REM stages by 0.8% per 10 years. The mean classification accuracy for givensets of records and single EEG and multimodal features is 88.7% ( standard deviation, STD: 2.1 and89.6% (STD:1.9, respectively. The proposed methods enable the use of adaptive learning processesfor the detection and classification of health disorders based on prior specialist experience andman–machine interaction.

  15. A metric for quantifying El Niño pattern diversity with implications for ENSO-mean state interaction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lemmon, Danielle E.; Karnauskas, Kristopher B.

    2018-04-01

    Recent research on the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon increasingly reveals the highly complex and diverse nature of ENSO variability. A method of quantifying ENSO spatial pattern uniqueness and diversity is presented, which enables (1) formally distinguishing between unique and "canonical" El Niño events, (2) testing whether historical model simulations aptly capture ENSO diversity by comparing with instrumental observations, (3) projecting future ENSO diversity using future model simulations, (4) understanding the dynamics that give rise to ENSO diversity, and (5) analyzing the associated diversity of ENSO-related atmospheric teleconnection patterns. Here we develop a framework for measuring El Niño spatial SST pattern uniqueness and diversity for a given set of El Niño events using two indices, the El Niño Pattern Uniqueness (EPU) index and El Niño Pattern Diversity (EPD) index, respectively. By applying this framework to instrumental records, we independently confirm a recent regime shift in El Niño pattern diversity with an increase in unique El Niño event sea surface temperature patterns. However, the same regime shift is not observed in historical CMIP5 model simulations; moreover, a comparison between historical and future CMIP5 model scenarios shows no robust change in future ENSO diversity. Finally, we support recent work that asserts a link between the background cooling of the eastern tropical Pacific and changes in ENSO diversity. This robust link between an eastern Pacific cooling mode and ENSO diversity is observed not only in instrumental reconstructions and reanalysis, but also in historical and future CMIP5 model simulations.

  16. East Asian winter temperature variation associated with the combined effects of AO and WP pattern

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Hye-Jin; Ahn, Joong-Bae

    2016-04-01

    The combined effects of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and Western Pacific (WP) teleconnection pattern on the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) over the last 56 years (1958/59-2013/2014) were investigated using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data (Park and Ahn, 2015). The study results revealed that the effect of the AO on winter temperature in East Asia could be changed depending on the phases of the WP pattern in the North Pacific. The negative relationship between the EAWM and the AO increased when the AO and WP were in-phase with each other. Hence, when winter negative (positive) AO was accompanied by negative (positive) WP, negative (positive) temperature anomalies were dominant across the entire East Asia region. Conversely, when the AO and WP were of-of-phase, the winter temperature anomaly in East Asia did not show distinct changes. Furthermore, from the perspective of stationary planetary waves, the zonal wavenumber-2 patterns of sea level pressure and geopotential height at 500hPa circulation strengthened when the AO and WP were in-phase but were not significant for the out-of-phase condition. It explained the possible mechanism of the combined effects of the AO and WP on the circulation related to EAWM. Reference Park, H.-J., and J.-B. Ahn (2015) Combined effect of the Arctic Oscillation and the Western Pacific pattern on East Asia winter temperature, Clim. Dyn. DOI:10.1007/s00382-015-2763-2. Acknowledgements This work was funded by the Korea Meteorological Administration Research and Development Program under grant KMIPA2015-2081.

  17. The combined influence of the main European circulation patterns on carbon uptake by ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bastos, Ana; Gouveia, Célia; Trigo, Ricardo

    2014-05-01

    Understanding how natural climate variability affects carbon uptake by land and ocean pools is particularly relevant to better characterize human impact on the carbon cycle. Recently, we have contributed to assess the major role played by the El-Niño/Southern Oscillation in driving inter-annual variability (IAV) of carbon uptake by land ecosystems and significantly influencing global CO2 air-borne fraction [1]. Despite the prominent role played by ENSO, other important teleconnections on the hemispheric scale have deserved less attention. On the European scale, the main mode of variability is the North-Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), which controls storm tracks position and drives changes in temperature and precipitation over the whole region, affecting vegetation dynamics [2]. Besides NAO, a few additional large scale circulation patterns the Scandinavian (SC) and East-Atlantic (EA) Patterns, are also known to influence significantly the European climate [3]. Different combinations of these teleconnection polarities have been recently shown to modulate the overall role of the NAO impact location and strength, thus affecting winter temperature and precipitation patterns over Europe [4]. This work aims to answer the following questions: (i) how do NAO, EA and SC affect vegetation carbon uptake IAV? (ii) do the interactions between these three modes have a significant impact on land CO2 IAV? (iii) what is the contribution of the different physical variables to ecosystems' response to these modes? (iv) how well do the state-of-the-art Earth System Models (ESMs) from CMIP5 represent these climate variability modes and the corresponding carbon fluxes? We first analyze observational data to assess the relationships between the different combinations of NAO, SC and EA polarities and IAV of gross and net primary production (GPP and NPP, respectively), as well as the most relevant driving factors of ecosystem's response to those variability patterns. Although the winter state

  18. Privacy transparency patterns

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Siljee B.I.J.

    2015-01-01

    This paper describes two privacy patterns for creating privacy transparency: the Personal Data Table pattern and the Privacy Policy Icons pattern, as well as a full overview of privacy transparency patterns. It is a first step in creating a full set of privacy design patterns, which will aid

  19. Mediterranean climate and some tropical teleconnections

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alpert, P.; Price, C.; Krichak, S.; Saaroni, H.; Osetinsky, I.; Barkan, J.; Kishcha, P.; Ziv, B.

    2006-01-01

    Some strong natural fluctuations of climate in the Eastern Mediterranean (EM) region are shown to be connected to the major tropical systems, e.g., El Ni no Southern Oscillation, South Asian Monsoon and hurricanes. Modelling of the severe floods suggests a relation to tropical hurricanes. For a specific event, high-resolution modelling of the severe flood on December 3-5, 2001 in Israel suggests a relation to hurricane Olga. In order to understand the factors governing the Eastern Mediterranean climate variability in the summer season, the relationship between extreme summer temperatures and the South Asian Monsoon was examined. Other tropical factors, like the Red Sea Trough system and the Saharan dust, also contribute to the Mediterranean climate variability

  20. The Africa South America Intercontinental Teleconnection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cook, K. H.; Hsieh, J.-S.; Hagos, S. M.

    2004-07-01

    The influence of heating over Africa on the South American precipitation climatology, and the influence of South America on Africa, is examined through the application of GCM simulations with idealized boundary conditions and perpetual solstice (January and July) conditions.The presence of Africa is associated with a pronounced (up to 4 mm day-1) decrease in precipitation in Brazil's Nordeste region during austral summer. Low-level moisture divergence and dry-air advection associated with the downbranch of a Walker circulation induced by heating over southern Africa is amplified over the Nordeste due to the response of the land surface. The response is much smaller during austral winter due to differences in the heat source over Africa and a reduced sensitivity in the surface heat balance over tropical South America. Forcing from South America in January shifts the position of the South Indian convergence zone (SICZ) to the southwest over southern Africa in association with the formation of the South Atlantic convergence zone (SACZ). In July, a Rossby wave train generated over South America induces a response in the surface temperature of Africa that leads to stronger precipitation in central and western Africa.This study suggests a zonal mode of variability for South American and African circulation and precipitation fields. The resulting perturbations depend as much on land surface atmosphere interactions as on the direct forcing from the adjacent continent, and the mechanisms are highly nonlinear.

  1. Ocean-Atmosphere Coupling associated with Typhoons/ Hurricane and their impacts on marine ecosystem (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, D. L.

    2010-12-01

    DanLing TANG South China Sea Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences,Guangzhou, China Phone (86) 13924282728; Fax/Tel: (86) 020 89023203 (off), 020 89023191 (Lab),Email,lingzistdl@126.com, Typhoon / hurricane activities and their impacts on environments have been strengthening in both intensity and spatial coverage, along with global changes in the past several decades; however, our knowledge about impact of typhoon on the marine ecosystem is very scarce. We have conducted a series studies in the South China Sea (SCS), investigating phytoplankton, sea surface temperature (SST), fishery data and related factors before, during, and after typhoon. Satellite remote sensing and in situ observation data obtained from research cruise were applied. Our study showed that typhoon can support nutrients to surface phytoplankton by inducing upwelling and vertical mixing, and typhoon rain can also nourish marine phytoplankton; both typhoon winds and rain can enhance production of marine phytoplankton. Slow-moving typhoon induced phytoplankton blooms of higher Chlorophyll-a (Chl-a), the strong typhoon induced phytoplankton blooms of a large area. We conservatively estimate that typhoon periods may account for 3.5% of the annual primary production in the oligotrophic SCS. It indicated that one typhoon may induce transport of nutrient-rich water from depth and from the coast to offshore regions, nourishing phytoplankton biomass. More observations confirmed that typhoon can induce cold eddy, and cold eddy can support eddy-shape phytoplankton bloom by upwelling. We have suggested a new index to evaluate typhoon impact on marine ecosystem and environment. This is the first time to report moving eddies and eddy-shape phytoplankton blooms associated with tropical cyclone, the relationship among tropical cyclone, cold eddy upwelling and eddy-shape phytoplankton bloom may give some viewpoint on the tropical cyclone's affection on the mesoscale circulation. Those studies may help better understand the mechanism of typhoon impacts on marine ecosystem, and the role of typhoon in the global environmental changes. The present research was supported by the following grants awarded to D.L.TANG: (1) National Natural Science Foundation of China (40976091, 40811140533) and Guangdong Natural Science Foundation, China (8351030101000002); (2) Chinese Academy of Sciences (kzcx2-yw-226 and LYQ200701);

  2. Tropical North Atlantic ocean-atmosphere interactions synchronize forest carbon losses from hurricanes and Amazon fires

    OpenAIRE

    Chen, Y; Randerson, JT; Morton, DC

    2015-01-01

    ©2015. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. We describe a climate mode synchronizing forest carbon losses from North and South America by analyzing time series of tropical North Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs), landfall hurricanes and tropical storms, and Amazon fires during 1995-2013. Years with anomalously high tropical North Atlantic SSTs during March-June were often followed by a more active hurricane season and a larger number of satellite-detected fires in the south...

  3. Tropical North Atlantic ocean-atmosphere interactions synchronize forest carbon losses from hurricanes and Amazon fires

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Yang; Randerson, James T.; Morton, Douglas C.

    2015-08-01

    We describe a climate mode synchronizing forest carbon losses from North and South America by analyzing time series of tropical North Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs), landfall hurricanes and tropical storms, and Amazon fires during 1995-2013. Years with anomalously high tropical North Atlantic SSTs during March-June were often followed by a more active hurricane season and a larger number of satellite-detected fires in the southern Amazon during June-November. The relationship between North Atlantic tropical cyclones and southern Amazon fires (r = 0.61, p forests.

  4. Investigation of hurricane Ivan using the coupled ocean-atmosphere-wave-sediment transport (COAWST) model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zambon, Joseph B.; He, Ruoying; Warner, John C.

    2014-01-01

    The coupled ocean–atmosphere–wave–sediment transport (COAWST) model is used to hindcast Hurricane Ivan (2004), an extremely intense tropical cyclone (TC) translating through the Gulf of Mexico. Sensitivity experiments with increasing complexity in ocean–atmosphere–wave coupled exchange processes are performed to assess the impacts of coupling on the predictions of the atmosphere, ocean, and wave environments during the occurrence of a TC. Modest improvement in track but significant improvement in intensity are found when using the fully atmosphere–ocean-wave coupled configuration versus uncoupled (e.g., standalone atmosphere, ocean, or wave) model simulations. Surface wave fields generated in the fully coupled configuration also demonstrates good agreement with in situ buoy measurements. Coupled and uncoupled model-simulated sea surface temperature (SST) fields are compared with both in situ and remote observations. Detailed heat budget analysis reveals that the mixed layer temperature cooling in the deep ocean (on the shelf) is caused primarily by advection (equally by advection and diffusion).

  5. Statistical and dynamical assessment of land-ocean-atmosphere interactions across North Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Yan

    North Africa is highly vulnerable to hydrologic variability and extremes, including impacts of climate change. The current understanding of oceanic versus terrestrial drivers of North African droughts and pluvials is largely model-based, with vast disagreement among models in terms of the simulated oceanic impacts and vegetation feedbacks. Regarding oceanic impacts, the relative importance of the tropical Pacific, tropical Indian, and tropical Atlantic Oceans in regulating the North African rainfall variability, as well as the underlying mechanism, remains debated among different modeling studies. Classic theory of land-atmosphere interactions across the Sahel ecotone, largely based on climate modeling experiments, has promoted positive vegetation-rainfall feedbacks associated with a dominant surface albedo mechanism. However, neither the proposed positive vegetation-rainfall feedback with its underlying albedo mechanism, nor its relative importance compared with oceanic drivers, has been convincingly demonstrated up to now using observational data. Here, the multivariate Generalized Equilibrium Feedback Assessment (GEFA) is applied in order to identify the observed oceanic and terrestrial drivers of North African climate and quantify their impacts. The reliability of the statistical GEFA method is first evaluated against dynamical experiments within the Community Earth System Model (CESM). In order to reduce the sampling error caused by short data records, the traditional GEFA approach is refined through stepwise GEFA, in which unimportant forcings are dropped through stepwise selection. In order to evaluate GEFA's reliability in capturing oceanic impacts, the atmospheric response to a sea-surface temperature (SST) forcing across the tropical Pacific, tropical Indian, and tropical Atlantic Ocean is estimated independently through ensembles of dynamical experiments and compared with GEFA-based assessments. Furthermore, GEFA's performance in capturing terrestrial impacts is evaluated through ensembles of fully coupled CESM dynamical experiments, with modified leaf area index (LAI) and soil moisture across the Sahel or West African Monsoon (WAM) region. The atmospheric responses to oceanic and terrestrial forcings are generally consistent between the dynamical experiments and statistical GEFA, confirming GEFA's capability of isolating the individual impacts of oceanic and terrestrial forcings on North African climate. Furthermore, with the incorporation of stepwise selection, GEFA can now provide reliable estimates of the oceanic and terrestrial impacts on the North African climate with the typical length of observational datasets, thereby enhancing the method's applicability. After the successful validation of GEFA, the key observed oceanic and terrestrial drivers of North African climate are identified through the application of GEFA to gridded observations, remote sensing products, and reanalyses. According to GEFA, oceanic drivers dominate over terrestrial drivers in terms of their observed impacts on North African climate in most seasons. Terrestrial impacts are comparable to, or more important than, oceanic impacts on rainfall during the post-monsoon across the Sahel and WAM region, and after the short rain across the Horn of Africa (HOA). The key ocean basins that regulate North African rainfall are typically located in the tropics. While the observed impacts of SST variability across the tropical Pacific and tropical Atlantic Oceans on the Sahel rainfall are largely consistent with previous model-based findings, minimal impacts from tropical Indian Ocean variability on Sahel rainfall are identified in observations, in contrast to previous modeling studies. The current observational analysis verifies model-hypothesized positive vegetation-rainfall feedback across the Sahel and HOA, which is confined to the post-monsoon and post-short rains season, respectively. However, the observed positive vegetation feedback to rainfall in the semi-arid Sahel and HOA is largely due to moisture recycling, rather than the classic albedo mechanism. Future projections of Sahel rainfall remain highly uncertain in terms of both sign and magnitude within phases three and five of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3 and CMIP5). The GEFA-based observational analyses will provide a benchmark for evaluating climate models, which will facilitate effective process-based model weighting for more reliable projections of regional climate, as well as model development.

  6. Ocean-atmosphere forcing of South American tropical paleoclimate, LGM to present

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baker, P. A.; Fritz, S. C.; Dwyer, G. S.; Rigsby, C. A.; Silva, C. G.; Burns, S. J.

    2012-12-01

    Because of many recent terrestrial paleoclimatic and marine paleoceanographic records, late Quaternary South American tropical paleoclimate is as well understood as that anywhere in the world. While lessons learned from the recent instrumental record of climate are informative, this record is too short to capture much of the lower frequency variability encountered in the paleoclimate records and much of the observed paleoclimate is without modern analogue. This paleoclimate is known to be regionally variable with significant differences both north and south of the equator and between the western high Andes and eastern lowlands of the Amazon and Nordeste Brazil. Various extrinsic forcing mechanisms affected climate throughout the period, including global concentrations of GHGs, Northern Hemisphere ice sheet forcing, seasonal insolation forcing of the South American summer monsoon (SASM), millennial-scale Atlantic forcing, and Pacific forcing of the large-scale Walker circulation. The magnitude of the climate response to these forcings varied temporally, largely because of the varying amplitude of the forcing itself. For example, during the last glacial, large-amplitude north Atlantic forcing during Heinrich 1 and the LGM itself, led to wet (dry) conditions south (north) of the equator. During the Holocene, Atlantic forcing was lower amplitude, thus seasonal insolation forcing generally predominated with a weaker-than-normal SASM during the early Holocene resulting in dry conditions in the south-western tropics and wet conditions in the eastern lowlands and Nordeste; in the late Holocene seasonal insolation reached a maximum in the southern tropics and climate conditions reversed.

  7. Ocean-Atmosphere Coupling Processes Affecting Predictability in the Climate System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, A. J.; Subramanian, A. C.; Seo, H.; Eliashiv, J. D.

    2017-12-01

    Predictions of the ocean and atmosphere are often sensitive to coupling at the air-sea interface in ways that depend on the temporal and spatial scales of the target fields. We will discuss several aspects of these types of coupled interactions including oceanic and atmospheric forecast applications. For oceanic mesoscale eddies, the coupling can influence the energetics of the oceanic flow itself. For Madden-Julian Oscillation onset, the coupling timestep should resolve the diurnal cycle to properly raise time-mean SST and latent heat flux prior to deep convection. For Atmospheric River events, the evolving SST field can alter the trajectory and intensity of precipitation anomalies along the California coast. Improvements in predictions will also rely on identifying and alleviating sources of biases in the climate states of the coupled system. Surprisingly, forecast skill can also be improved by enhancing stochastic variability in the atmospheric component of coupled models as found in a multiscale ensemble modeling approach.

  8. Southern hemisphere climate variability as represented by an ocean-atmosphere coupled model

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Beraki, A

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available in the atmospheric circulation. The ability of predicting these modes of climate variability on longer timescales is vital. Potential predictability is usually measured as a signal-to-noise contrast between the slowly evolving and chaotic components of the climate...

  9. Orographic effects on tropical climate in a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Okajima, Hideki

    Large-scale mountain modifies the atmospheric circulation directly through dynamic and thermodynamic process, and also indirectly through the interaction with the ocean. To investigate orographic impacts on tropical climate, a fully coupled general circulation model (CGCM) is developed by coupling a state-of-the-art atmospheric general circulation model and an ocean general circulation model. With realistic boundary conditions, the CGCM produces a reasonable climatology of sea surface temperature (SST), surface winds, and precipitation. When global mountains are removed, the model climatology displays substantial changes in both the mean-state and the seasonal cycle. The equatorial eastern Pacific SST acquires a semi-annual component as inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ) flips and flops across the equator following the seasonal migration of the sun. Without the Andes, wet air flows into the southeastern tropical Pacific from the humid Amazon, which weakens the meridional asymmetry during the Peruvian warm season (February-April). In addition, the northeasterly trade winds are enhanced north of the equator without the orographic blocking of Central American mountains and cools SST. Triggered by the SST cooling north and moistening south of the equator, the wind-evaporation-SST (WES) feedback further weakens the meridional asymmetry and prolongs the southern ITCZ. In the Atlantic Ocean, the equatorial cold tongue is substantially strengthened and develops a pronounced annual cycle in the absence of mountains. The easterly winds are overall enhanced over the equatorial Atlantic without orographic heating over the African highlands, developing a zonal asymmetry strengthened by the Bjerknes feedback. In the Indian Ocean, the thermocline shoals eastward and an equatorial cold tongue appears twice a year. During boreal summer, the Findlater jet is greatly weakened off Somalia and SST warms in the western Indian Ocean, forcing the equatorial easterly winds amplified again by the Bjerknes feedback. During boreal winter, cold surges from the flat Asian continent enhance the easterly wind in the North Indian Ocean, resulting in another development of the equatorial cold tongue. Over the subtropical northwestern Pacific, the removal of mountains strengthens the subtropical trade winds, and SST cools, suppressing atmospheric convection. A cold thermocline dome appears in the subsurface during boreal winter but appears to have little effects on the SST.

  10. Coupled Ocean/Atmospheric Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS), Version 5.0 (User’s Guide)

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-03-30

    provides tools for common modeling functions, as well as regridding, data decomposition, and communication on parallel computers. NRL/MR/7320--10...specified gncomDir. If running COAMPS at the DSRC (e.g. BABBAGE, DAVINCI , or EINSTEIN), the global NCOM files will be copied to /scr/[user]/COAMPS/data...the site (DSRC or local) and the platform (BABBAGE. DAVINCI , EINSTEIN, or local machine) on which COAMPS is being run. site=navy_dsrc (for DSRC

  11. A Reusable and Autonomous Ocean-Atmosphere Sensor Integration System (OASIS), Phase II

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The need to acquire observations on oceanic and atmospheric physical and biogeochemical processes continues to increase. These data are presently being used as...

  12. South African mid-summer seasonal rainfall prediction performance by a coupled ocean-atmosphere model

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Landman, WA

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available . 2000; Goddard and Mason, 2002). Such a so-called two-tiered procedure to predict the outcome of the rainfall season has been employed in South Africa for a number of years already (e.g., Landman et al., 2001). The advent of fully coupled ocean...

  13. Ocean-atmosphere pollutant circulation processes: The Heligoland Bight ecosystem (PRISMA). 2. interim report (1991)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1992-04-01

    The PRISMA BMFT project is an important stage on the way to a comprehensive knowledge of the impacts of pollutants on the North Sea/Heligoland Bight ecosystem. The overall project is dedicated to the development, verification and application of a complex shelf-sea model which provides qualitative and quantitative data about the causal interactions between the basic atmospheric conditions, the hydrodynamics and thermodynamics of the water, the chemical reactons in the air, in the water and the sediments, and the activity of organisms. The model comprises a compact set of formulae, process formulations, initial and marginal conditions and empirical parameters which serves to describe the origin, transport, reactions and final deposition of pollutants in the North Sea, helps to analyze and elucidate the present condition of the ecosystem and its spatial and temporal variability, and provides forecasts in accordance with the changing natural and anthropogenic environmental conditions. (orig.) [de

  14. UNIFICATION AND APPLICATIONS OF MODERN OCEANIC/ATMOSPHERIC DATA ASSIMILATION ALGORITHMS

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    QIAO Fang-li; ZHANG Shao-qing; YUAN Ye-li

    2004-01-01

    The key mathematics and applications of various modern atmospheric/oceanic data assimilation methods including Optimal Interpolation(OI),4-dimensional variational approach(4D-Var)and filters were systematically reviewed and classified.Based on the data assimilation philosophy,I.e.,using model dynamics to extract the observational information,the common character of the problem,such as the probabilistic nature of the evolution of the atmospheric/oceanic system,noisy and irregularly spaced observations,and the advantages and disadvantages of these data assimilation algorithms,were discussed.In the filtering framework,all modern data assimilation algorithms were unified: OI/3D-Var is a stationary filter,4D-Var is a linear(Kalman)filter and an ensemble of Kalman filters is able to construct a nonlinear filter.The nonlinear filter such as the Ensemble Kalman Filter(ENKF),Ensemble Adjustment Kalman Filter(EAKF)and Ensemble Transformation Kalman Filter(ETKF)can,to some extent,account for the non-Gaussian information of the prior distribution from the model.The flow-dependent covariance estimated by an ensemble filter may be introduced to OI and 4D-Var to improve these traditional algorithms.In practice,the performance of algorithms may depend on the specific numerical model and the choice of algorithm may depend on the specific problem.However,the unification of algorithms allows us to establish a unified test system to evaluate these algorithms,which provides more insights into data assimilation philosophies and helps improve data assimilation techniques.

  15. Rapid global ocean-atmosphere response to Southern Ocean freshening during the last glacial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turney, Chris S M; Jones, Richard T; Phipps, Steven J; Thomas, Zoë; Hogg, Alan; Kershaw, A Peter; Fogwill, Christopher J; Palmer, Jonathan; Bronk Ramsey, Christopher; Adolphi, Florian; Muscheler, Raimund; Hughen, Konrad A; Staff, Richard A; Grosvenor, Mark; Golledge, Nicholas R; Rasmussen, Sune Olander; Hutchinson, David K; Haberle, Simon; Lorrey, Andrew; Boswijk, Gretel; Cooper, Alan

    2017-09-12

    Contrasting Greenland and Antarctic temperatures during the last glacial period (115,000 to 11,650 years ago) are thought to have been driven by imbalances in the rates of formation of North Atlantic and Antarctic Deep Water (the 'bipolar seesaw'). Here we exploit a bidecadally resolved 14 C data set obtained from New Zealand kauri (Agathis australis) to undertake high-precision alignment of key climate data sets spanning iceberg-rafted debris event Heinrich 3 and Greenland Interstadial (GI) 5.1 in the North Atlantic (~30,400 to 28,400 years ago). We observe no divergence between the kauri and Atlantic marine sediment 14 C data sets, implying limited changes in deep water formation. However, a Southern Ocean (Atlantic-sector) iceberg rafted debris event appears to have occurred synchronously with GI-5.1 warming and decreased precipitation over the western equatorial Pacific and Atlantic. An ensemble of transient meltwater simulations shows that Antarctic-sourced salinity anomalies can generate climate changes that are propagated globally via an atmospheric Rossby wave train.A challenge for testing mechanisms of past climate change is the precise correlation of palaeoclimate records. Here, through climate modelling and the alignment of terrestrial, ice and marine 14 C and 10 Be records, the authors show that Southern Ocean freshwater hosing can trigger global change.

  16. International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set (ICOADS) R3.0 netCDF version

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This collection contains observations of global ocean meteorological and oceanographic variables, such as sea surface and air temperatures, wind, pressure, humidity,...

  17. Development and Testing of a Coupled Ocean-atmosphere Mesoscale Ensemble Prediction System

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-06-28

    member 0; see text for a detailed description of the physics parameters) Member abl mixlen Flux w-kf tinc-lcl cld -rad precip Graupel Auto-conv Rain-int...increment has an impact on the convective initiation. 7. The cloud updraft radius used in the K–F parameteri- zation: The radius cld -rad (m) varies

  18. Ocean-atmosphere interaction during Thane cyclone: A numerical study using WRF

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    VinodKumar, K.; Soumya, M.; Tkalich, P.; Vethamony, P.

    Cyclone `Thane` developed over the southeast Bay of Bengal (BoB) at 88.5 degree E, 8.5degree N during 25-31 December 2011.Simulations have been carried out using Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to generate fine resolution winds...

  19. Changing characteristics of streamflow in the Midwest and its relation to oceanic-atmospheric oscillations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thakur, B.; Pathak, P.; Kalra, A.; Ahmad, S.

    2016-12-01

    The identification of primary drivers of streamflow may prove beneficial in forecasting streamflow in the Midwestern U.S. In the past researches, streamflow in the region have been strongly correlated with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). The present study takes in to account the pre-defined Pacific and Atlantic Ocean regions (e.g., ENSO, PDO, AMO) along with new regions with an intent to identify new significantly correlated regions. This study assesses the interrelationship between sea surface temperatures (SST) anomalies in the Pacific and Atlantic Ocean and seasonal streamflow in the Midwestern U.S. Average Pacific and Atlantic Ocean SST anomalies, were calculated for 2 different 3 month series: September-November and December-February so as to create a lead time varying from 3 to 9 months. Streamflow were averaged for three seasons: spring (April-June), spring-summer (April-August) and summer (June-August). The correlation between streamflow and SST is analyzed using singular value decomposition for a period of 1960-2013. The result of the study showed several regions-other than the known Pacific and Atlantic Ocean regions- that were significantly correlated with streamflow stations. Higher correlation between the climate indices and streamflow were observed as the lead time decreased. The identification of the associations between SST and streamflow and significant SST regions in the Pacific and Atlantic Ocean may enhance the skill of streamflow predictability and water management in the region.

  20. Contribution of the bubbles to gas transfer across the ocean-atmosphere interface

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Memery, Laurent

    1983-05-01

    A first theoretical approach to gas transfer by bubbles is undertaken. Certain parameters which are neglected by smooth air-water interface models are studied. It is found that transfer velocity increases when solubility decreases. Further, bubble overpressure leads to water supersaturation at equilibrium, this supersaturation being more significant for less soluble gases. Although the transfer velocity remains roughly constant for a variable concentration gradient far from equilibrium, its range of variation becomes infinite near equilibrium. Because the notion of transfer velocity is not useful near equilibrium, attention is turned directly to the flux itself: the flux is a linear function of the concentration gradient. At least for tracers the coefficients of this function are entirely defined by the physico-chemical properties of the gas and by the bubble distribution. The dissertation is divided in three parts: - a synthesis which sums up the main experimental and theoretical results of the study of the influence of the bubbles created by breaking waves on gas transfer, - an article published in 'Journal of Geophysical Research', - an article submitted to 'Tellus'. (author) [fr

  1. Polytypic pattern matching

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jeuring, J.T.

    1995-01-01

    The pattern matching problem can be informally specified as follows: given a pattern and a text, find all occurrences of the pattern in the text. The pattern and the text may both be lists, or they may both be trees, or they may both be multi-dimensional arrays, etc. This paper describes a general

  2. Detecting spatial patterns with the cumulant function – Part 2: An application to El Niño

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Yiou

    2008-02-01

    Full Text Available The spatial coherence of a measured variable (e.g. temperature or pressure is often studied to determine the regions of high variability or to find teleconnections, i.e. correlations between specific regions. While usual methods to find spatial patterns, such as Principal Components Analysis (PCA, are constrained by linear symmetries, the dependence of variables such as temperature or pressure at different locations is generally nonlinear. In particular, large deviations from the sample mean are expected to be strongly affected by such nonlinearities. Here we apply a newly developed nonlinear technique (Maxima of Cumulant Function, MCF for detection of typical spatial patterns that largely deviate from the mean. In order to test the technique and to introduce the methodology, we focus on the El Niño/Southern Oscillation and its spatial patterns. We find nonsymmetric temperature patterns corresponding to El Niño and La Niña, and we compare the results of MCF with other techniques, such as the symmetric solutions of PCA, and the nonsymmetric solutions of Nonlinear PCA (NLPCA. We found that MCF solutions are more reliable than the NLPCA fits, and can capture mixtures of principal components. Finally, we apply Extreme Value Theory on the temporal variations extracted from our methodology. We find that the tails of the distribution of extreme temperatures during La Niña episodes is bounded, while the tail during El Niños is less likely to be bounded. This implies that the mean spatial patterns of the two phases are asymmetric, as well as the behaviour of their extremes.

  3. Oceanic and atmospheric patterns during spawning periods prior to extreme catches of the Brazilian sardine (Sardinella brasiliensis in the southwest Atlantic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Helena Cachanhuk Soares

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Relative maxima and minima of landings of Brazilian sardine captured in the Southeast Brazil Bight (SBB were compared with oceanic and atmospheric composites relative to the spawning period in December and January, prior to these landings. Atmospheric and oceanic variables such as wind stress, Ekman transport, mixing index, sea surface temperature (SST, precipitation, outgoing long wave radiation and geopotential height were analyzed, revealing distinct climatological patterns in the SBB for these extreme catches that have not been described before. The system could be characterized by cooler SST composite anomaly (SSTA along the SBB as a response to increased cloud cover and reduced incidence of short-wave radiation, predominating one year before the Brazilian sardine catch maxima. This system can take on a different configuration in which positive SSTA condition in the SBB is associated with a less intense South Atlantic Convergence Zone displaced southwards one year before the period of minimum catch. Our results indicate that the spatial structure of the spawning habitat is influenced by specific ocean-atmosphere interactions rather than simply resulting from the choice of a stable environment. This climatic constraint strongly affects the interannual variability of the Brazilian sardine production.

  4. A comprehensive analysis of coherent rainfall patterns in China and potential drivers. Part I: Interannual variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stephan, Claudia Christine; Klingaman, Nicholas Pappas; Vidale, Pier Luigi; Turner, Andrew George; Demory, Marie-Estelle; Guo, Liang

    2018-06-01

    Interannual rainfall variability in China affects agriculture, infrastructure and water resource management. To improve its understanding and prediction, many studies have associated precipitation variability with particular causes for specific seasons and regions. Here, a consistent and objective method, Empirical Orthogonal Teleconnection (EOT) analysis, is applied to 1951-2007 high-resolution precipitation observations over China in all seasons. Instead of maximizing the explained space-time variance, the method identifies regions in China that best explain the temporal variability in domain-averaged rainfall. The EOT method is validated by the reproduction of known relationships to the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO): high positive correlations with ENSO are found in eastern China in winter, along the Yangtze River in summer, and in southeast China during spring. New findings include that wintertime rainfall variability along the southeast coast is associated with anomalous convection over the tropical eastern Atlantic and communicated to China through a zonal wavenumber-three Rossby wave. Furthermore, spring rainfall variability in the Yangtze valley is related to upper-tropospheric midlatitude perturbations that are part of a Rossby wave pattern with its origin in the North Atlantic. A circumglobal wave pattern in the northern hemisphere is also associated with autumn precipitation variability in eastern areas. The analysis is objective, comprehensive, and produces timeseries that are tied to specific locations in China. This facilitates the interpretation of associated dynamical processes, is useful for understanding the regional hydrological cycle, and allows the results to serve as a benchmark for assessing general circulation models.

  5. Male pattern baldness (image)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Male pattern baldness is a sex-linked characteristic that is passed from mother to child. A man can more accurately predict his chances of developing male pattern baldness by observing his mother's father than by looking ...

  6. Male pattern baldness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alopecia in men; Baldness - male; Hair loss in men; Androgenetic alopecia ... Male pattern baldness is related to your genes and male sex hormones. It usually follows a pattern of receding hairline and ...

  7. Caching Patterns and Implementation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Octavian Paul ROTARU

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Repetitious access to remote resources, usually data, constitutes a bottleneck for many software systems. Caching is a technique that can drastically improve the performance of any database application, by avoiding multiple read operations for the same data. This paper addresses the caching problems from a pattern perspective. Both Caching and caching strategies, like primed and on demand, are presented as patterns and a pattern-based flexible caching implementation is proposed.The Caching pattern provides method of expensive resources reacquisition circumvention. Primed Cache pattern is applied in situations in which the set of required resources, or at least a part of it, can be predicted, while Demand Cache pattern is applied whenever the resources set required cannot be predicted or is unfeasible to be buffered.The advantages and disadvantages of all the caching patterns presented are also discussed, and the lessons learned are applied in the implementation of the pattern-based flexible caching solution proposed.

  8. Influence of tropical atmospheric variability on Weddell Sea deep water convection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kleppin, H.

    2016-02-01

    Climate reconstructions from ice core records in Greenland and Antarctica have revealed a series of abrupt climate transitions, showing a distinct relationship between northern and southern hemisphere climate during the last glacial period. The recent ice core records from West Antarctica (WAIS) point towards an atmospheric teleconnection as a possible trigger for the interhemispheric climate variability (Markle et al., 2015). An unforced simulation of the Community Climate System Model, version 4 (CCSM4) reveals Greenland warming and cooling events, caused by stochastic atmospheric forcing, that resemble Dansgaard-Oeschger cycles in pattern and magnitude (Kleppin et al., 2015). Anti-phased temperature changes in the Southern Hemisphere are small in magnitude and have a spatially varying pattern. We argue that both north and south high latitude climate variability is triggered by changes in tropical atmospheric deep convection in the western tropical Pacific. The atmospheric wave guide provides a fast communication pathway connecting the deep tropics and the polar regions. In the Southern Hemisphere this is manifested as a distinct pressure pattern over West Antarctica. These altered atmospheric surface conditions over the convective region can lead to destabilization of the water column and thus to convective overturning in the Weddell Sea. However, opposed to what is seen in the Northern Hemisphere no centennial scale variability can establish, due to the absence of a strong feedback mechanism between ocean, atmosphere and sea ice. Kleppin, H., Jochum, M., Otto-Bliesner, B., Shields, C. A., & Yeager, S. (2015). Stochastic Atmospheric Forcing as a Cause of Greenland Climate Transitions. Journal of Climate, (2015). Markle, B. and Coauthors (2015, April). Atmospheric teleconnections between the tropics and high southern latitudes during millennial climate change. In EGU General Assembly Conference Abstracts (Vol. 17, p. 2569).

  9. Making Pattern Mining Useful

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vreeken, J.

    2009-01-01

    The discovery of patterns plays an important role in data mining. A pattern can be any type of regularity displayed in that data, such as, e.g. which items are typically sold together, which genes are mostly active for patients of a certain disease, etc, etc. Generally speaking, finding a pattern is

  10. Pattern recognition & machine learning

    CERN Document Server

    Anzai, Y

    1992-01-01

    This is the first text to provide a unified and self-contained introduction to visual pattern recognition and machine learning. It is useful as a general introduction to artifical intelligence and knowledge engineering, and no previous knowledge of pattern recognition or machine learning is necessary. Basic for various pattern recognition and machine learning methods. Translated from Japanese, the book also features chapter exercises, keywords, and summaries.

  11. Learning Python design patterns

    CERN Document Server

    Zlobin, Gennadiy

    2013-01-01

    This book takes a tutorial-based and user-friendly approach to covering Python design patterns. Its concise presentation means that in a short space of time, you will get a good introduction to various design patterns.If you are an intermediate level Python user, this book is for you. Prior knowledge of Python programming is essential. Some knowledge of UML is also required to understand the UML diagrams which are used to describe some design patterns.

  12. Patterns of Peeragogy

    OpenAIRE

    Corneli, Joseph; Danoff, Charles Jeffrey; Pierce, Charlotte; Ricaurte, Paola; MacDonald, Lisa Snow

    2015-01-01

    We describe nine design patterns that we have developed in our work on the Peeragogy project, in which we aim to help design the future of learning, inside and outside of institutions, drawing on the principles of free/libre/open source software and open culture. We use these patterns to build an “emergent roadmap” for the project. Our use of design patterns has some novel features that will be relevant to others working in projects with emergent structure.

  13. Optical Pattern Recognition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Francis T. S.; Jutamulia, Suganda

    2008-10-01

    Contributors; Preface; 1. Pattern recognition with optics Francis T. S. Yu and Don A. Gregory; 2. Hybrid neural networks for nonlinear pattern recognition Taiwei Lu; 3. Wavelets, optics, and pattern recognition Yao Li and Yunglong Sheng; 4. Applications of the fractional Fourier transform to optical pattern recognition David Mendlovic, Zeev Zalesky and Haldum M. Oxaktas; 5. Optical implementation of mathematical morphology Tien-Hsin Chao; 6. Nonlinear optical correlators with improved discrimination capability for object location and recognition Leonid P. Yaroslavsky; 7. Distortion-invariant quadratic filters Gregory Gheen; 8. Composite filter synthesis as applied to pattern recognition Shizhou Yin and Guowen Lu; 9. Iterative procedures in electro-optical pattern recognition Joseph Shamir; 10. Optoelectronic hybrid system for three-dimensional object pattern recognition Guoguang Mu, Mingzhe Lu and Ying Sun; 11. Applications of photrefractive devices in optical pattern recognition Ziangyang Yang; 12. Optical pattern recognition with microlasers Eung-Gi Paek; 13. Optical properties and applications of bacteriorhodopsin Q. Wang Song and Yu-He Zhang; 14. Liquid-crystal spatial light modulators Aris Tanone and Suganda Jutamulia; 15. Representations of fully complex functions on real-time spatial light modulators Robert W. Cohn and Laurence G. Hassbrook; Index.

  14. Professional ASPNET Design Patterns

    CERN Document Server

    Millett, Scott

    2010-01-01

    Professional ASP.NET Design Patterns will show you how to implement design patterns in real ASP.NET applications by introducing you to the basic OOP skills needed to understand and interpret design patterns. A sample application used throughout the book is an enterprise level ASP.NET website with multi-tiered, SOA design techniques that can be applied to your future ASP.NET projects. Read about each design pattern in detail, including how to interpret the UML design, how to implement it in ASP.NET, its importance for ASP.NET development, and how it's integrated into the final project.

  15. Patterns - "A crime solver".

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nagasupriya, A; Dhanapal, Raghu; Reena, K; Saraswathi, Tr; Ramachandran, Cr

    2011-01-01

    This study is intended to analyze the predominant pattern of lip and finger prints in males and females and to correlate lip print and finger print for gender identity. The study sample comprised of 200 students of Vishnu Dental College, Bhimavaram, Andhra Pradesh, 100 males and 100 females aged between 18 to 27 years. Brown/pink colored lip stick was applied on the lips and the subject was asked to spread it uniformly over the lips. Lip prints were traced in the normal rest position of the lips with the help of cellophane tape. The imprint of the left thumb was taken on a white chart sheet and visualized using magnifying lens. While three main types of finger prints are identified, the classification of lip prints is simplified into branched, reticular, and vertical types. Association between lip prints and finger prints was statistically tested using Chi-square test. This study showed that lip and finger patterns did not reveal statistically significant results within the gender. The correlation between lip and finger patterns for gender identification, was statistically significant. In males, branched type of lip pattern associated with arch, loop, and whorl type of finger pattern was most significant. In females, vertical lip pattern associated with arch finger pattern and reticular lip pattern associated with whorl finger patterns were most significant. We conclude that a correlative study between the lip print and finger print will be very useful in forensic science for gender identification.

  16. ENSO, IOD and Indian Summer Monsoon in NCEP climate forecast system

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pokhrel, Samir; Chaudhari, H.S.; Saha, Subodh K.; Dhakate, Ashish; Yadav, R.K.; Salunke, Kiran; Mahapatra, S.; Rao, Suryachandra A. [Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pashan, Pune (India)

    2012-11-15

    El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and Indian Summer Monsoon rainfall features are explored statistically and dynamically using National Centers for Environment Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System (CFSv1) freerun in relation to observations. The 100 years of freerun provides a sufficiently long homogeneous data set to find out the mean state, periodicity, coherence among these climatic events and also the influence of ENSO and IOD on the Indian monsoon. Differences in the occurrence of seasonal precipitation between the observations and CFS freerun are examined as a coupled ocean-atmosphere system. CFS simulated ENSO and IOD patterns and their associated tropical Walker and regional Hadley circulation in pure ENSO (PEN), pure IOD (PIO) and coexisting ENSO-IOD (PEI) events have some similarity to the observations. PEN composites are much closer to the observation as compared to PIO and PEI composites, which suggest a better ENSO prediction and its associated teleconnections as compared to IOD and combined phenomenon. Similar to the observation, the model simulation also show that the decrease in the Indian summer monsoon rainfall during ENSO phases is associated with a descending motion of anomalous Walker circulation and the increase in the Indian summer monsoon rainfall during IOD phase is associated with the ascending branch of anomalous regional Hadley circulation. During co-existing ENSO and IOD years, however, the fate of Indian summer monsoon is dictated by the combined influence of both of them. The shift in the anomalous descending and ascending branches of the Walker and Hadley circulation may be somewhat attributed to the cold (warm) bias over eastern (western) equatorial Indian Ocean basin, respectively in the model. This study will be useful for identifying some of the limitations of the CFS model and consequently it will be helpful in improving the model to unravel the realistic coupled ocean-atmosphere interactions

  17. Patterns in natural systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sewalt, L.

    2016-01-01

    In the thesis, `Patterns in natural systems’ the formation and evolution of patterns as solutions of several partial differential systems are studied. These mathematical systems model three different biological and ecological processes. First, the way that plankton concentrates in the water column,

  18. Discovery: Pile Patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Mestre, Neville

    2017-01-01

    Earlier "Discovery" articles (de Mestre, 1999, 2003, 2006, 2010, 2011) considered patterns from many mathematical situations. This article presents a group of patterns used in 19th century mathematical textbooks. In the days of earlier warfare, cannon balls were stacked in various arrangements depending on the shape of the pile base…

  19. Patterns in Software Development

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Corry, Aino Vonge

    the university and I entered a project to industry within Center for Object Technology (COT). I focused on promoting the pattern concept to the Danish software industry in order to help them take advantage of the benefits of applying patterns in system development. In the obligatory stay abroad, I chose to visit...

  20. Complex Systems and Patterns

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pieters, C.P.

    2008-01-01

    Although the term 'pattern' is often used in science, it is an elusive term and can have different dialectic meanings in various disciplines. Yet, the 'feel' for this term is fairly consistent; it usually requires little explanation to understand what a pattern is, and therefore it usually tends to

  1. Patterns of Academic Procrastination.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Day, Victor; Mensink, David; O'Sullivan, Michael

    2000-01-01

    Uses the Academic Procrastination Questionnaire to measure procrastination and six possible patterns underlying it among undergraduate students. Finds that the most common patterns for clients involved Evaluation Anxiety or being Discouraged/Depressed, or Dependent. Supports individualized assessment and solutions for academic procrastination. (SC)

  2. Engaging with Islamic Patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sugarman, Ian

    2012-01-01

    Islamic patterns were a regular feature in mathematics classrooms, and probably still feature in many wall displays. However, as part of the learning process, these ancient designs appear to have lost any significant contemporary appeal. Here, the power of software is engaged to bring the construction of Islamic type patterns up to date. Forget…

  3. Is It a Pattern?

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGarvey, Lynn M.

    2013-01-01

    This article describes how in early mathematics learning, young children are often asked to recognize and describe visual patterns in their environment--perhaps on their clothing, a toy, or the carpet; around a picture frame; or in the playground equipment. Exploring patterns in the early years is seen as an important introduction to algebraic…

  4. Patterns of Knowledge Construction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Bo

    2018-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to identify knowledge construction patterns in a local learning community. Observation, documents, and semistructured interviews were employed to collect data. Twenty learners were interviewed. Data were analyzed inductively using the constant comparative method. Five major patterns--radiation, circulation,…

  5. Statistical Pattern Recognition

    CERN Document Server

    Webb, Andrew R

    2011-01-01

    Statistical pattern recognition relates to the use of statistical techniques for analysing data measurements in order to extract information and make justified decisions.  It is a very active area of study and research, which has seen many advances in recent years. Applications such as data mining, web searching, multimedia data retrieval, face recognition, and cursive handwriting recognition, all require robust and efficient pattern recognition techniques. This third edition provides an introduction to statistical pattern theory and techniques, with material drawn from a wide range of fields,

  6. Parallel Algorithms and Patterns

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Robey, Robert W. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2016-06-16

    This is a powerpoint presentation on parallel algorithms and patterns. A parallel algorithm is a well-defined, step-by-step computational procedure that emphasizes concurrency to solve a problem. Examples of problems include: Sorting, searching, optimization, matrix operations. A parallel pattern is a computational step in a sequence of independent, potentially concurrent operations that occurs in diverse scenarios with some frequency. Examples are: Reductions, prefix scans, ghost cell updates. We only touch on parallel patterns in this presentation. It really deserves its own detailed discussion which Gabe Rockefeller would like to develop.

  7. Assessing the simulation and prediction of rainfall associated with the MJO in the POAMA seasonal forecast system

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Marshall, Andrew G. [Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Hobart, (Australia); Hudson, Debra; Wheeler, Matthew C.; Hendon, Harry H.; Alves, Oscar [Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne (Australia)

    2011-12-15

    We assess the ability of the Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia (POAMA) to simulate and predict weekly rainfall associated with the MJO using a 27-year hindcast dataset. After an initial 2-week atmospheric adjustment, the POAMA model is shown to simulate well, both in pattern and in intensity, the weekly-mean rainfall variation associated with the evolution of the MJO over the tropical Indo-Pacific. The simulation is most realistic in December-February (austral summer) and least realistic in March-May (austral autumn). Regionally, the most problematic area is the Maritime Continent, which is a common problem area in other models. Coupled with our previous demonstration of the ability of POAMA to predict the evolution of the large-scale structure of the MJO for up to about 3 weeks, this ability to simulate the regional rainfall evolution associated with the MJO translates to enhanced predictability of rainfall regionally throughout much of the tropical Indo-Pacific when the MJO is present in the initial conditions during October-March. We also demonstrate enhanced prediction skill of rainfall at up to 3 weeks lead time over the north-east Pacific and north Atlantic, which are areas of pronounced teleconnections excited by the MJO-modulation of tropical Indo-Pacific rainfall. Failure to simulate and predict the modulation of rainfall in such places as the Maritime Continent and tropical Australia by the MJO indicates, however, there is still much room for improvement of the prediction of the MJO and its teleconnections. (orig.)

  8. Antenna Pattern Range (APR)

    Data.gov (United States)

    Federal Laboratory Consortium — TheAntenna Pattern Range (APR)features a non-metallic arch with a trolley to move the transmit antenna from the horizon to zenith. At the center of the ground plane,...

  9. Four integration patterns

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bygstad, Bendik; Nielsen, Peter Axel; Munkvold, Bjørn Erik

    2010-01-01

    This paper aims to contribute to a theory of integration within the field of IS project management. Integration is a key IS project management issue when new systems are developed and implemented into an increasingly integrated information infrastructure in corporate and governmental organizations....... Expanding the perspective of traditional project management research, we draw extensively on central insights from IS research. Building on socio-technical IS research and Software Engineering research we suggest four generic patterns of integration: Big Bang, Stakeholder Integration, Technical Integration...... and Socio-Technical Integration. We analyze and describe the advantages and disadvantages of each pattern. The four patterns are ideal types. To explore the forces and challenges in these patterns three longitudinal case studies were conducted. In particular we investigate the management challenges for each...

  10. Life History Patterns

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jones, Owen

    2016-01-01

    of these patterns and highlights the need to consider senescence from a broad taxonomic scope to truly understand the evolution of aging. Keywords: Aging; Demography; Evolution; Fertility; Gompertz; Life span; Mortality; Ontogenescence; Reproduction; Reproductive senescence; Senescence; Survivorship...

  11. Dietary Patterns in Childhood

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Louise Beltoft Borup

    A healthy diet is essential for healthy growth and development during childhood and may prevent obesity, diabetes, and cardiovascular diseases throughout life. Traditionally, diet has been investigated as single nutrients. However, people do not eat one single nutrient and they do not even eat one...... single food. People consume meals and these meals vary during a day, over a year and during a life time. To comprehend some of this complexity it could be advantageous to investigate dietary patterns representing the whole diet as patterns might be better markers of growth and health than single...... childhood. These associations might contribute to the identification of families, who would benefit from guidance to help them establish healthy dietary patterns for their infants. Finding tracking for some infants and changes in adherence to dietary patterns for others as well as the association between...

  12. Caregiving and travel patterns.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-06-01

    This study explored the impact of caregiving for older adults on mobility and travel : patterns. Specifically, the focus was on how caregivers managed trips on behalf of : another who receives care. Caregiving is becoming increasingly common as the :...

  13. Windowed fringe pattern analyis

    CERN Document Server

    Kemao, Qian

    2013-01-01

    This book provides solutions to the challenges involved in fringe pattern analysis, covering techniques for full-field, noncontact, and high-sensitivity measurement. The primary goal of fringe pattern analysis is to extract the hidden phase distributions that generally relate to the physical quantities being measured. Both theoretical analysis and algorithm development are covered to facilitate the work of researchers and engineers. The information presented is also appropriate as a specialized subject for students of optical and computer engineering.

  14. Hyponymy Patterns in Romanian

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Verginica Barbu Mititelu

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Hyponymy is a lexical-semantic relation that has been studied in Romanian linguistics only occasionally and almost exclusively in connection to other relations. However, for computational engineers it offers a very effective way of organizing the lexical material useful in many applications involving Natural Language Processing. In this paper we present two methods of identifying Romanian hyponymy patterns, their results and evaluation; we also envisage the applicability of these patterns and future work

  15. Female pattern hair loss

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    İdil Ünal

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Female androgenetic alopecia is the commonest cause of hair loss in women. It is characterized by a diffuse reduction in hair density over the crown and frontal scalp with retention of the frontal hairline and a characteristic pattern distribution in genetically predisposed women. Because of the uncertain relationship with the androgens Female Pattern Hair Loss (FPHL is the most preferred definition of the condition. This review has been focused on the clinical features, diagnosis and treatment alternatives of FPHL.

  16. Patterned Colloidal Photonic Crystals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hou, Jue; Li, Mingzhu; Song, Yanlin

    2018-03-01

    Colloidal photonic crystals (PCs) have been well developed because they are easy to prepare, cost-effective, and versatile with regards to modification and functionalization. Patterned colloidal PCs contribute a novel approach to constructing high-performance PC devices with unique structures and specific functions. In this review, an overview of the strategies for fabricating patterned colloidal PCs, including patterned substrate-induced assembly, inkjet printing, and selective immobilization and modification, is presented. The advantages of patterned PC devices are also discussed in detail, for example, improved detection sensitivity and response speed of the sensors, control over the flow direction and wicking rate of microfluidic channels, recognition of cross-reactive molecules through an array-patterned microchip, fabrication of display devices with tunable patterns, well-arranged RGB units, and wide viewing-angles, and the ability to construct anti-counterfeiting devices with different security strategies. Finally, the perspective of future developments and challenges is presented. © 2018 Wiley-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

  17. Fuel pattern recognition device

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sato, Tomomi.

    1995-01-01

    The device of the present invention monitors normal fuel exchange upon fuel exchanging operation carried out in a reactor of a nuclear power plant. Namely, a fuel exchanger is movably disposed to the upper portion of the reactor and exchanges fuels. An exclusive computer receives operation signals of the fuel exchanger during operation as inputs, and outputs reactor core fuel pattern information signals to a fuel arrangement diagnosis device. An underwater television camera outputs image signals of a fuel pattern in the reactor core to an image processing device. If there is any change in the image signals for the fuel pattern as a result of the fuel exchange operation of the fuel exchanger, the image processing device outputs the change as image signals to the fuel pattern diagnosis device. The fuel pattern diagnosis device compares the pattern information signals from the exclusive computer with the image signals from the image processing device, to diagnose the result of the fuel exchange operation performed by the fuel exchanger and inform the diagnosis by means of an image display. (I.S.)

  18. Pattern graph rewrite systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aleks Kissinger

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available String diagrams are a powerful tool for reasoning about physical processes, logic circuits, tensor networks, and many other compositional structures. Dixon, Duncan and Kissinger introduced string graphs, which are a combinatoric representations of string diagrams, amenable to automated reasoning about diagrammatic theories via graph rewrite systems. In this extended abstract, we show how the power of such rewrite systems can be greatly extended by introducing pattern graphs, which provide a means of expressing infinite families of rewrite rules where certain marked subgraphs, called !-boxes ("bang boxes", on both sides of a rule can be copied any number of times or removed. After reviewing the string graph formalism, we show how string graphs can be extended to pattern graphs and how pattern graphs and pattern rewrite rules can be instantiated to concrete string graphs and rewrite rules. We then provide examples demonstrating the expressive power of pattern graphs and how they can be applied to study interacting algebraic structures that are central to categorical quantum mechanics.

  19. G ∘ F Patterns

    CERN Multimedia

    CERN. Geneva

    2017-01-01

    The book of design patterns known as Gang of Four has been a kind of Bible for all the developers of my generation. Its main pro has been giving us a common vocabulary: when a programmer says “here I used a strategy pattern” all colleagues know of what he is speaking about. Nevertheless the biggest issue with this is that almost all patterns listed in that book, especially the behavioural ones, are a only workaround for a missing abstraction: higher order functions. The introduction of lambda expressions in Java 8 finally allows all Java developers to remove this no longer necessary and cumbersome object oriented infrastructure from their code. The purpose of this talk is showing, through a series of live coding examples, how the most common GoF patterns can be rethought and reimplemented in a simpler and more concise functional way leveraging Java 8 lambdas.

  20. Settlement patterns and sustainability

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hendriksen, Kåre

    This paper discusses settlement patterns and sustainability. Generally urbanization is recognised as an inevitable development driven by job opportunities, better service supply, education, and health services, and it is argued that this is the main driver for centralisation. Research based...... on economic and demographic studies and a large series of interviews problematize this. In Greenland the historical correlation between settlement pattern and livelihood has been decoupled, so that distributions of jobs and potential earnings to a growing extend is a consequence of political and...

  1. Patterns of data modeling

    CERN Document Server

    Blaha, Michael

    2010-01-01

    Best-selling author and database expert with more than 25 years of experience modeling application and enterprise data, Dr. Michael Blaha provides tried and tested data model patterns, to help readers avoid common modeling mistakes and unnecessary frustration on their way to building effective data models. Unlike the typical methodology book, "Patterns of Data Modeling" provides advanced techniques for those who have mastered the basics. Recognizing that database representation sets the path for software, determines its flexibility, affects its quality, and influences whether it succ

  2. Workflow User Interfaces Patterns

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jean Vanderdonckt

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Este trabajo presenta una colección de patrones de diseño de interfaces de usuario para sistemas de información para el flujo de trabajo; la colección incluye cuarenta y tres patrones clasificados en siete categorías identificados a partir de la lógica del ciclo de vida de la tarea sobre la base de la oferta y la asignación de tareas a los responsables de realizarlas (i. e. recursos humanos durante el flujo de trabajo. Cada patrón de la interfaz de usuario de flujo de trabajo (WUIP, por sus siglas en inglés se caracteriza por las propiedades expresadas en el lenguaje PLML para expresar patrones y complementado por otros atributos y modelos que se adjuntan a dicho modelo: la interfaz de usuario abstracta y el modelo de tareas correspondiente. Estos modelos se especifican en un lenguaje de descripción de interfaces de usuario. Todos los WUIPs se almacenan en una biblioteca y se pueden recuperar a través de un editor de flujo de trabajo que vincula a cada patrón de asignación de trabajo a su WUIP correspondiente.A collection of user interface design patterns for workflow information systems is presented that contains forty three resource patterns classified in seven categories. These categories and their corresponding patterns have been logically identified from the task life cycle based on offering and allocation operations. Each Workflow User Interface Pattern (WUIP is characterized by properties expressed in the PLML markup language for expressing patterns and augmented by additional attributes and models attached to the pattern: the abstract user interface and the corresponding task model. These models are specified in a User Interface Description Language. All WUIPs are stored in a library and can be retrieved within a workflow editor that links each workflow pattern to its corresponding WUIP, thus giving rise to a user interface for each workflow pattern.

  3. Local and regional effects of large scale atmospheric circulation patterns on winter wind power output in Western Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zubiate, Laura; McDermott, Frank; Sweeney, Conor; O'Malley, Mark

    2014-05-01

    Recent studies (Brayshaw, 2009, Garcia-Bustamante, 2010, Garcia-Bustamante, 2013) have drawn attention to the sensitivity of wind speed distributions and likely wind energy power output in Western Europe to changes in low-frequency, large scale atmospheric circulation patterns such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Wind speed variations and directional shifts as a function of the NAO state can be larger or smaller depending on the North Atlantic region that is considered. Wind speeds in Ireland and the UK for example are approximately 20 % higher during NAO + phases, and up to 30 % lower during NAO - phases relative to the long-term (30 year) climatological means. By contrast, in southern Europe, wind speeds are 15 % lower than average during NAO + phases and 15 % higher than average during NAO - phases. Crucially however, some regions such as Brittany in N.W. France have been identified in which there is negligible variability in wind speeds as a function of the NAO phase, as observed in the ERA-Interim 0.5 degree gridded reanalysis database. However, the magnitude of these effects on wind conditions is temporally and spatially non-stationary. As described by Comas-Bru and McDermott (2013) for temperature and precipitation, such non-stationarity is caused by the influence of two other patterns, the East Atlantic pattern, (EA), and the Scandinavian pattern, (SCA), which modulate the position of the NAO dipole. This phenomenon has also implications for wind speeds and directions, which has been assessed using the ERA-Interim reanalysis dataset and the indices obtained from the PC analysis of sea level pressure over the Atlantic region. In order to study the implications for power production, the interaction of the NAO and the other teleconnection patterns with local topography was also analysed, as well as how these interactions ultimately translate into wind power output. The objective is to have a better defined relationship between wind speed and power

  4. Exploring pedestrian movement patterns

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Orellana, D.A.

    2012-01-01

    The main objective of this thesis is to develop an approach for exploring, analysing and interpreting movement patterns of pedestrians interacting with the environment. This objective is broken down in sub-objectives related to four research questions. A case study of the movement of visitors in a

  5. Storyboards for Meaningful Patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dubon, Lucille P.; Shafer, Kathryn G.

    2010-01-01

    The initial focus of this kindergarten-level action research project was on identifying which students could create a pattern. The focus then shifted to helping all students successfully achieve this goal. The intervention uses a storyboard where students select colored cubes to represent objects and then snap the cubes together as indicated on…

  6. Patterns in chaos

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chirikov, B.V.

    1990-01-01

    Classification of chaotic patterns in classical Hamiltonian systems is given as a series of levels with increasing disorder. Hamiltonian dynamics is presented, including the renormalization chaos, based upon the fairly simple resonant theory. First estimates for the critical structure and related statistical anomalies in arbitrary dimensions are discussed. 49 refs

  7. Motor Patterns in Walking.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lacquaniti, F.; Grasso, R.; Zago, M.

    1999-08-01

    Despite the fact that locomotion may differ widely in mammals, common principles of kinematic control are at work. These reflect common mechanical and neural constraints. The former are related to the need to maintain balance and to limit energy expenditure. The latter are related to the organization of the central pattern-generating networks.

  8. Painting Patterns with Pixels.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoerg, Kim

    2002-01-01

    Describes an art unit for middle school students where they created their own original pattern through the use of "ClarisWorks Paint." Discusses the procedure for the project and the evaluation used at the end of the unit. Emphasizes the importance of learning about computers. (CMK)

  9. Organization patterns responsibilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beuerle, H.J.

    1975-01-01

    To guarantee safety and safe operation of a nuclear power station the technical facilities must be supplemented by suitable administrative measures. Thus, the organization pattern of the nuclear power station or of the nuclear power station undertaking will also exert a corresponding influence. (orig./TK) [de

  10. Structural patterns in nature

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wester, Ture

    2003-01-01

    be an inspiration to structural morphologists and other dealing with the shaping of structures for buildings and other objects. Often the patterns appear in "dual" materializations, which indicate two radically different structural types of action. Randomness as a generator for optimal and basic structural action...

  11. Structural patterns in nature

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wester, Ture

    2004-01-01

    be an inspiration to structural morphologists and other dealing with the shaping of structures for buildings and other objects. Often the patterns appear in "dual" materializations, which indicate two radically different structural types of action. Randomness as a generator for optimal and basic structural action...

  12. Spider Web Pattern

    Science.gov (United States)

    2006-01-01

    A delicate pattern, like that of a spider web, appears on top of the Mars residual polar cap, after the seasonal carbon-dioxide ice slab has disappeared. Next spring, these will likely mark the sites of vents when the carbon-dioxide ice cap returns. This Mars Global Surveyor, Mars Orbiter Camera image is about 3-kilometers wide (2-miles).

  13. Multivariate pattern dependence.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stefano Anzellotti

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available When we perform a cognitive task, multiple brain regions are engaged. Understanding how these regions interact is a fundamental step to uncover the neural bases of behavior. Most research on the interactions between brain regions has focused on the univariate responses in the regions. However, fine grained patterns of response encode important information, as shown by multivariate pattern analysis. In the present article, we introduce and apply multivariate pattern dependence (MVPD: a technique to study the statistical dependence between brain regions in humans in terms of the multivariate relations between their patterns of responses. MVPD characterizes the responses in each brain region as trajectories in region-specific multidimensional spaces, and models the multivariate relationship between these trajectories. We applied MVPD to the posterior superior temporal sulcus (pSTS and to the fusiform face area (FFA, using a searchlight approach to reveal interactions between these seed regions and the rest of the brain. Across two different experiments, MVPD identified significant statistical dependence not detected by standard functional connectivity. Additionally, MVPD outperformed univariate connectivity in its ability to explain independent variance in the responses of individual voxels. In the end, MVPD uncovered different connectivity profiles associated with different representational subspaces of FFA: the first principal component of FFA shows differential connectivity with occipital and parietal regions implicated in the processing of low-level properties of faces, while the second and third components show differential connectivity with anterior temporal regions implicated in the processing of invariant representations of face identity.

  14. Forced Climate Changes in West Antarctica and the Indo-Pacific by Northern Hemisphere Ice Sheet Topography

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, T. R.; Roberts, W. H. G.; Steig, E. J.; Cuffey, K. M.; Markle, B. R.; White, J. W. C.

    2017-12-01

    The behavior of the Indo-Pacific climate system across the last deglaciation is widely debated. Resolving these debates requires long term and continuous climate proxy records. Here, we use an ultra-high resolution and continuous water isotope record from an ice core in the Pacific sector of West Antarctica. In conjunction with the HadCM3 coupled ocean-atmosphere GCM, we demonstrate that the climate of both West Antarctica and the Indo-Pacific were substantially altered during the last deglaciation by the same forcing mechanism. Critically, these changes are not dependent on ENSO strength, but rather the location of deep tropical convection, which shifts at 16 ka in response to climate perturbations induced by the Laurentide Ice Sheet. The changed rainfall patterns in the tropics explain the deglacial shift from expanded-grasslands to rainforest-dominated ecosystems in Indonesia. High-frequency climate variability in the Southern Hemisphere is also changed, through a tropical Pacific teleconnection link dependent on the propogration of Rossby Waves.

  15. Influence of winter NAO pattern on variable renewable energies potential in Europe over the 20th century

    Science.gov (United States)

    François, Baptiste; Raynaud, Damien; Hingray, Benoit; Creutin, Jean-Dominique

    2017-04-01

    Integration of Variable Renewable Energy (VRE) sources in the electricity system is a challenge because of temporal and spatial fluctuations of their power generation resulting from their driving weather variables (i.e. solar radiation wind speed, precipitation, and temperature). Very few attention was paid to low frequency variability (i.e. from annual to decades) even though it may have significant impact on energy system and energy market Following the current increase in electricity supplied by VRE generation, one could ask the question about the risk of ending up in a situation in which the level of production of one or more VRE is exceptionally low or exceptionally high for a long period of time and/or over a large area. What would be the risk for an investor if the return on investment has been calculated on a high energy production period? What would be the cost in term of carbon emission whether the system manager needs to turn on coal power plant to satisfy the demand? Such dramatic events would definitely impact future stakeholder decision to invest in a particular energy source or another. Weather low frequency variability is mainly governed by large-scale teleconnection patterns impacting the climate at global scale such as El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the tropics and in North America or the North Atlantic Oscillation (hereafter, NAO) in North America and Europe. Teleconnection pattern's influence on weather variability cascades to VRE variability and ends up by impacting electricity system. The aim of this study is to analysis the impact of the NAO on VRE generation in Europe during the winter season. The analysis is carried out over the twentieth century (i.e. from 1900 to 2010), in order to take into account climate low frequency variability, and for a set of 12 regions covering a large range of climates in Europe. Weather variable time series are obtained by using the ERA20C reanalysis and the SCAMP model (Sequential Constructive

  16. Spatiotemporal patterns of precipitation extremes in the Poyang Lake basin, China: Changing properties and causes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiao, M.

    2016-12-01

    Under the background of climate change, extensive attentions have been paid on the increased extreme precipitation from the public and government. To analyze the influences of large-scale climate indices on the precipitation extremes, the spatiotemporal patterns of precipitation extremes in the Poyang Lake basin have been investigated using the Bayesian hierarchical method. The seasonal maximum one-day precipitation amount (Rx1day) was used to represent the seasonal precipitation extremes. Results indicated that spring Rx1day was affected by El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), a positive ENSO event in the same year tends to decrease the spring Rx1day in the northern part of Poyang Lake Basin while increase the spring Rx1day in southeastern Poyang Lake Basin, a positive NAO events in the same year tends to increase the spring Rx1day in the southwest and northwest part of Poyang Lake basin while decrease the spring Rx1day in the eastern part of Poyang Lake basin; summer Rx1day was affected by Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), positive IOD events in the same year tend to increase the summer Rx1day of northern Poyang Lake basin while decrease summer Rx1day of southern Poyang Lake basin; autumn Rx1day was affected by ENSO, positive ENSO events in the same year tend to mainly increase the autumn Rx1day in the west part of Poyang Lake basin; winter Rx1day was mainly affected by the NAO, positive NAO events in the same year tend to mainly increase the winter Rx1day of southern Poyang Lake basin, while positive NAO events in the previous year tend to mainly increase the winter Rx1day in the central and northeast part of Poyang Lake basin. It is considered that the region with the negative vertical velocity is dominated by more precipitation and vice versa. Furthermore, field patterns of 500 hPa vertical velocity anomalies related to each climate index have further corroborated the influences of climate indices on the seasonal Rx1day, and

  17. Centennial eolian cyclicity in the Great Plains, USA: A dominant pattern of wind transport over the past 4000 years?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwalb, Antje; Dean, Walter E.; Fritz, C. Sherilyn; Geiss, Christoph E.; Kromer, Bernd

    2010-01-01

    Proxy evidence at decadal resolution from Late Holocene sediments from Pickerel Lake, northeastern South Dakota, shows distinct centennial cycles (400-700 years) in magnetic susceptibility; contents of carbonate, organic carbon, and major elements; abundance in ostracodes; and delta18O and delta13C values in calcite. Proxies indicate cyclic changes in eolian input, productivity, and temperature. Maxima in magnetic susceptibility are accompanied by maxima in aluminum and iron mass accumulation rates (MARs), and in abundances of the ostracode Fabaeformiscandona rawsoni. This indicates variable windy, and dry conditions with westerly wind dominance, including during the Medieval Climate Anomaly. Maxima in carbonates, organic carbon, phosphorous, and high delta13C values of endogenic calcite indicate moister and less windy periods with increased lake productivity, including during the Little Ice Age, and alternate with maxima of eolian transport. Times of the Maunder, Sporer and Wolf sunspot minima are characterized by maxima in delta18O values and aluminum MARs, and minima in delta13C values and organic carbon content. We interpret these lake conditions during sunspot minima to indicate decreases in lake surface water temperatures of up to 4-5 degrees C associated with decreases in epilimnetic productivity during summer. We propose that the centennial cycles are triggered by solar activity, originate in the tropical Pacific, and their onset during the Late Holocene is associated with insolation conditions driven by precession. The cyclic pattern is transmitted from the tropical Pacific into the atmosphere and transported by westerly winds into the North Atlantic realm where they strengthen the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation during periods of northern Great Plains wind maxima. This consequently leads to moister climates in Central and Northern Europe. Thus, Pickerel Lake provides evidence for mechanisms of teleconnections including an atmospheric link

  18. Patterns and Intelligent Systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cordes, Gail A.

    2003-01-01

    The recognition and analysis of evolving patterns provides a unifying concept for studying and implementing intelligent information processing for open feedback control systems within the nuclear industry. Control is considered as influence of a large system to achieve the goals of the human (who might or might not be part of an open feedback loop) and is not limited to operation of a component within a nuclear power plant. The intelligent control system includes open logic and can automatically react to new data in an unprogrammed way. This application of evolving patterns integrates current research developments in human cognition and scientific semiotics with traditional feedback control. A preliminary implementation of such a system using existing computational techniques is postulated, and tools that are lacking at this time are identified. Proof-of-concept applications for the nuclear industry are referenced

  19. Fundamentals of thinking, patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gafurov, O. M.; Gafurov, D. O.; Syryamkin, V. I.

    2018-05-01

    The authors analyze the fundamentals of thinking and propose to consider a model of the brain based on the presence of magnetic properties of gliacytes (Schwann cells) because of their oxygen saturation (oxygen has paramagnetic properties). The authors also propose to take into account the motion of electrical discharges through synapses causing electric and magnetic fields as well as additional effects such as paramagnetic resonance, which allows combining multisensory object-related information located in different parts of the brain. Therefore, the events of the surrounding world are reflected and remembered in the cortex columns, thus, creating isolated subnets with altered magnetic properties (patterns) and subsequently participate in recognition of objects, form a memory, and so on. The possibilities for the pattern-based thinking are based on the practical experience of applying methods and technologies of artificial neural networks in the form of a neuroemulator and neuromorphic computing devices.

  20. Pattern formation during electropolishing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yuzhakov, V.V.; Chang, H.; Miller, A.E.

    1997-01-01

    Using atomic force microscopy, we find that the surface morphology of a dissolving aluminum anode in a commercial electropolishing electrolyte can exhibit both highly regular and randomly packed stripe and hexagonal patterns with amplitudes of about 5 nm and wavelengths of 100 nm. The driving instability of this pattern formation phenomenon is proposed to be the preferential adsorption of polar or polarizable organic molecules on surface ridges where the contorted double layer produces a higher electric potential gradient. The enhanced relative coverage shields the anode and induces a smaller dissolution rate at the ridges. The instability is balanced by surface diffusion of the adsorbate to yield a length scale of 4π(D s /k d ) 1/2 , where D s is the surface diffusivity and k d is the desorption coefficient of the adsorbate, which correlates well with the measured wavelength. A long-wavelength expansion of the double-layer field yields an interface evolution equation that reproduces all of the observed patterns. In particular, bifurcation analysis and numerical simulation yield a single voltage-dependent dimensionless parameter ξ that measures a balance between smoothing of adsorbate concentration by electric-field-dependent surface diffusion and fluctuation due to interfacial curvature and stretching. Randomly oriented stripes are favored at large ξ (low voltage), while random hills dominate at small ξ (high voltage) with perfectly periodic stripes and hexagonal hill patterns within a small window near ξ=1. These predictions are in qualitative and quantitative agreement with our measurements. copyright 1997 The American Physical Society

  1. Shells and Patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sutley, Jane

    2009-01-01

    "Shells and Patterns" was a project the author felt would easily put smiles on the faces of her fifth-graders, and teach them about unity and the use of watercolor pencils as well. It was thrilling to see the excitement in her students as they made their line drawings of shells come to life. For the most part, they quickly got the hang of…

  2. Pattern Driven Stress Localization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Croll, Andrew; Crosby, Alfred

    2010-03-01

    The self-assembly of patterns from isotropic initial states is a major driver of modern soft-matter research. This avenue of study is directed by the desire to understand the complex physics of the varied structures found in Nature, and by technological interest in functional materials that may be derived through biomimicry. In this work we show how a simple striped phase can respond with significant complexity to an appropriately chosen perturbation. In particular, we show how a buckled elastic plate transitions into a state of stress localization using a simple, self-assembled variation in surface topography. The collection of topographic boundaries act in concert to change the state from isotropic sinusoidal wrinkles, to sharp folds or creases separated by relatively flat regions. By varying the size of the imposed topographic pattern or the wavelength of the wrinkles, we construct a state diagram of the system. The localized state has implications for both biological systems, and for the control of non-linear pattern formation.

  3. Gardosian Patterns in Tribology

    Science.gov (United States)

    DellaCorte, Christopher

    2004-01-01

    The following paper is a memorial retrospective on selected research of Dr. Michael N. Gardos. Dr. Gardos spent his professional career engaged in tribological research which often extended the scientific boundaries of the field. Several of the concepts he put forth into the tribology community were initially met with grave skepticism but over time his views have been largely embraced but not widely acknowledged. His approach to new research topics was often characterized by these qualities: 1) pioneering points of view, 2) the use of the model experiment, and 3) the presence of multiple research agendas for each single experiment. I have chosen to name his research approach as "Gardosian Patterns" in honor of his contributions to Tribology. Three specific examples of these patterns will be reviewed. One is the concept of atomic level tailoring of materials to control macroscopic properties. A second is the use of a model ball polishing experiment to identify high fracture toughness ceramics for use in rolling element bearings. A third Gardosian Pattern example is his pioneering work with the tribology of diamond and diamond films in which he proposed controlling friction via surface bond tailoring. In these examples, Gardos utilized conventional research tools in unconventional ways and, at times, even developed new tools which have become part of the mainstream. His remarkable career has left a positive and lasting mark on Tribology.

  4. Pattern Recognition Control Design

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gambone, Elisabeth A.

    2018-01-01

    Spacecraft control algorithms must know the expected vehicle response to any command to the available control effectors, such as reaction thrusters or torque devices. Spacecraft control system design approaches have traditionally relied on the estimated vehicle mass properties to determine the desired force and moment, as well as knowledge of the effector performance to efficiently control the spacecraft. A pattern recognition approach was used to investigate the relationship between the control effector commands and spacecraft responses. Instead of supplying the approximated vehicle properties and the thruster performance characteristics, a database of information relating the thruster ring commands and the desired vehicle response was used for closed-loop control. A Monte Carlo simulation data set of the spacecraft dynamic response to effector commands was analyzed to establish the influence a command has on the behavior of the spacecraft. A tool developed at NASA Johnson Space Center to analyze flight dynamics Monte Carlo data sets through pattern recognition methods was used to perform this analysis. Once a comprehensive data set relating spacecraft responses with commands was established, it was used in place of traditional control methods and gains set. This pattern recognition approach was compared with traditional control algorithms to determine the potential benefits and uses.

  5. Principal oscillation patterns

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Storch, H. von; Buerger, G.; Storch, J.S. von

    1993-01-01

    The Principal Oscillation Pattern (POP) analysis is a technique which is used to simultaneously infer the characteristic patterns and time scales of a vector time series. The POPs may be seen as the normal modes of a linearized system whose system matrix is estimated from data. The concept of POP analysis is reviewed. Examples are used to illustrate the potential of the POP technique. The best defined POPs of tropospheric day-to-day variability coincide with the most unstable modes derived from linearized theory. POPs can be derived even from a space-time subset of data. POPs are successful in identifying two independent modes with similar time scales in the same data set. The POP method can also produce forecasts which may potentially be used as a reference for other forecast models. The conventional POP analysis technique has been generalized in various ways. In the cyclostationary POP analysis, the estimated system matrix is allowed to vary deterministically with an externally forced cycle. In the complex POP analysis not only the state of the system but also its ''momentum'' is modeled. Associated correlation patterns are a useful tool to describe the appearance of a signal previously identified by a POP analysis in other parameters. (orig.)

  6. Female pattern hair loss.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herskovitz, Ingrid; Tosti, Antonella

    2013-10-01

    Female pattern hair loss (FPHL) also known as female androgenetic alopecia is a common condition afflicting millions of women that can be cosmetically disrupting. Prompt diagnosis and treatment are essential for obtaining optimal outcome. This review addresses the clinical presentation of female pattern hair loss, its differential diagnosis and treatment modalities. A) Diffuse thinning of the crown region with preservation of the frontal hairline (Ludwig's type) B) The "Christmas tree pattern" where the thinning is wider in the frontal scalp giving the alopecic area a triangular shaped figure resembling a christmas tree. C) Thinning associated with bitemporal recession (Hamilton type). Generally, FPHL is not associated with elevated androgens. Less commonly females with FPHL may have other skin or general signs of hyperandrogenism such as hirsutism, acne, irregular menses, infertility, galactorrhea and insulin resistance. The most common endocrinological abnormality associated with FPHL is polycystic ovarian syndrome (PCOS). The most important diseases to consider in the differential diagnosis of FPHL include Chronic Telogen Effluvium (CTE), Permanent Alopecia after Chemotherapy (PAC), Alopecia Areata Incognito (AAI) and Frontal Fibrosing Alopecia (FFA). This review describes criteria for distinguishing these conditions from FPHL. The only approved treatment for FPHL, which is 2% topical Minoxidil, should be applied at the dosage of 1ml twice day for a minimum period of 12 months. This review will discuss off-label alternative modalities of treatment including 5-alfa reductase inhibitors, antiandrogens, estrogens, prostaglandin analogs, lasers, light treatments and hair transplantation.

  7. Pig design patterns

    CERN Document Server

    Pasupuleti, Pradeep

    2014-01-01

    Pig makes Hadoop programming simple, intuitive, and fun to work with. It removes the complexity from Map Reduce programming by giving the programmer immense power through its flexibility. What used to be extremely lengthy and intricate code written in other high level languages can now be written in almost one tenth of the size using its easy to understand constructs. Pig has proven to be the easiest way to learn how to program Hadoop clusters, as evidenced by its widespread adoption. This comprehensive guide enables readers to readily use design patterns to simplify the creation of complex da

  8. Subsidiary Linkage Patterns

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersson, Ulf; Perri, Alessandra; Nell, Phillip C.

    2012-01-01

    channels for spillovers to competitors. We find a curvilinear relationship between the extent of competitive pressure and the quality of a subsidiary's set of local linkages. Furthermore, the extent to which a subsidiary possesses capabilities moderates this relationship: Very capable subsidiaries...... in strongly competitive environments tend to shy away from high quality linkages. We discuss our findings in light of the literature on spillovers and inter-organizational linkages.......This paper investigates the pattern of subsidiaries' local vertical linkages under varying levels of competition and subsidiary capabilities. Contrary to most previous literature, we explicitly account for the double role of such linkages as conduits of learning prospects as well as potential...

  9. JavaScript Patterns

    CERN Document Server

    Stefanov, Stoyan

    2010-01-01

    What's the best approach for developing an application with JavaScript? This book helps you answer that question with numerous JavaScript coding patterns and best practices. If you're an experienced developer looking to solve problems related to objects, functions, inheritance, and other language-specific categories, the abstractions and code templates in this guide are ideal -- whether you're writing a client-side, server-side, or desktop application with JavaScript. Written by JavaScript expert Stoyan Stefanov -- Senior Yahoo! Technical and architect of YSlow 2.0, the web page performance

  10. Patterns of Internationalization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Prockl, Günter; Kotzab, Herbert; Kinra, Aseem

    2013-01-01

    sales office networks and the overall extent of market presence. For this the fundamental sales networks of the companies were considered as a key indicator, and the port networks of the 20 largest container-shipping companies in the world (by TEU capacity) were analyzed. Findings - The resulting data...... that is based e.g. on the development pattern of single companies and that may also take more the dynamic aspects and comparisons into account. Practical implications - Preceeding work provides insights that are directed towards the port networks and thus toward the more back office oriented resource...

  11. Break the Pattern!

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hasse, Cathrine; Trentemøller, Stine

    Break the Pattern! A critical enquiry into three scientific workplace cultures: Hercules, Caretakers and Worker Bees is the third publication of the international three year long project "Understanding Puzzles in the Gendered European Map" (UPGEM). By contrasting empirical findings from academic ...... (physics in culture) and discuss how physics as and in culture influence the perception of science, of work and family life, of the interplay between religion and science as well as how physics as culture can either hinder or promote the career of female scientists....

  12. Collaborative project. Ocean-atmosphere interaction from meso-to planetary-scale. Mechanisms, parameterization, and variability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Small, Richard [National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States); Bryan, Frank [National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States); Tribbia, Joseph [National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States); Park, Sungsu [National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States); Dennis, John [National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States); Saravanan, R. [National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States); Schneider, Niklas [National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States); Kwon, Young-Oh [National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)

    2015-06-11

    This project aims to improve long term global climate simulations by resolving ocean mesoscale activity and the corresponding response in the atmosphere. The main computational objectives are; i) to perform and assess Community Earth System Model (CESM) simulations with the new Community Atmospheric Model (CAM) spectral element dynamical core; ii) use static mesh refinement to focus on oceanic fronts; iii) develop a new Earth System Modeling tool to investigate the atmospheric response to fronts by selectively filtering surface flux fields in the CESM coupler. The climate research objectives are 1) to improve the coupling of ocean fronts and the atmospheric boundary layer via investigations of dependency on model resolution and stability functions: 2) to understand and simulate the ensuing tropospheric response that has recently been documented in observations: and 3) to investigate the relationship of ocean frontal variability to low frequency climate variability and the accompanying storm tracks and extremes in high resolution simulations. This is a collaborative multi-institution project consisting of computational scientists, climate scientists and climate model developers. It specifically aims at DOE objectives of advancing simulation and predictive capability of climate models through improvements in resolution and physical process representation.

  13. Impact of Manaus City on the Amazon Green Ocean atmosphere: Ozone production, precursor sensitivity and aerosol load

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kuhn, U.; Ganzeveld, L.N.

    2010-01-01

    As a contribution to the Large-Scale Biosphere-Atmosphere Experiment in Amazonia – Cooperative LBA Airborne Regional Experiment (LBA-CLAIRE-2001) field campaign in the heart of the Amazon Basin, we analyzed the temporal and spatial dynamics of the urban plume of Manaus City during the wet-to-dry

  14. Assessment of Urbanization on the Integrated Land-Ocean-Atmosphere Environment in Coastal Metropolis in Preparation for HyspIRI

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sequera, Pedro; McDonald, Kyle C.; Gonzalez, Jorge; Arend, Mark; Krakauer, Nir; Bornstein, Robert; Luvll, Jeffrey

    2012-01-01

    The need for comprehensive studies of the relationships between past and projected changes of regional climate and human activity in comple x urban environments has been well established. The HyspIRI preparato ry airborne activities in California, associated science and applicat ions research, and eventually HyspIRI itself provide an unprecedented opportunity for development and implementation of an integrated data and modeling analysis system focused on coastal urban environments. We will utilize HyspIRI preparatory data collections in developing ne w remote sensing-based tools for investigating the integrated urban e nvironment, emphasizing weather, climate, and energy demands in compl ex coastal cities.

  15. The role of ocean-atmosphere interaction in Typhoon Sinlaku (2008) using a regional coupled data assimilation system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wada, Akiyoshi; Kunii, Masaru

    2017-05-01

    For improving analyses of tropical cyclone (TC) and sea surface temperature (SST) and thereby TC simulations, a regional mesoscale strongly coupled atmosphere-ocean data assimilation system was developed with the local ensemble transform Kalman filter (LETKF) implemented with the Japan Meteorological Agency's nonhydrostatic model (NHM) coupled with a multilayer ocean model and the third-generation ocean wave model. The NHM-LETKF coupled data assimilation system was applied to Typhoon Sinlaku (2008) along with the original NHM-LETKF system to investigate the sensitivity of Sinlaku to SST assimilation with the Level 2 Pre-processed (L2P) standard product of satellite SST. SST calculated in the coupled-assimilation experiment with the coupled data assimilation system and the satellite SST (CPL) showed a better correlation with Optimally Interpolated SST than SST used in the control experiment with the original NHM-LETKF (CNTL) and SST calculated in the succession experiment with the coupled system without satellite SST (SUCC). The time series in the CPL experiment well captured the variation in the SST observed at the Kuroshio Extension Observation buoy site. In addition, TC-induced sea surface cooling was analyzed more realistically in the CPL experiment than that in the CNTL and SUCC experiments. However, the central pressure analyzed in each three experiments was overestimated compared with the Regional Specialized Meteorological Center Tokyo best-track central pressure, mainly due to the coarse horizontal resolution of 15 km. The 96 h TC simulations indicated that the CPL experiment provided more favorable initial and boundary conditions than the CNTL experiment to simulate TC tracks more accurately.

  16. Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS), Version 5.0, Revision 2.0 (User’s Guide)

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-05-03

    output (I/O) system. The framework provides tools for common modeling functions, as well as regridding, data decomposition, and communication on...Within this script, the user must specify both the site (DSRC or local) and the platform ( DAVINCI , EINSTEIN, or local machine) on which COAMPS is...being run. For example: site=navy_dsrc (for DSRC usage) site=nrlssc (for local NRL-SSC usage) platform= davinci or einstein (for DSRC usage

  17. Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS) Version 5.0, Rev. 2.0 (User’s Guide)

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-05-03

    output (I/O) system. The framework provides tools for common modeling functions, as well as regridding, data decomposition, and communication on...Within this script, the user must specify both the site (DSRC or local) and the platform ( DAVINCI , EINSTEIN, or local machine) on which COAMPS is...being run. For example: site=navy_dsrc (for DSRC usage) site=nrlssc (for local NRL-SSC usage) platform= davinci or einstein (for DSRC usage

  18. User’s Guide for the Coupled Ocean/Atmospheric Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS) Version 5.0

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-03-30

    provides tools for common modeling functions, as well as regridding, data decomposition, and communication on parallel computers. NRL/MR/7320...specified gncomDir. If running COAMPS at the DSRC (e.g. BABBAGE, DAVINCI , or EINSTEIN), the global NCOM files will be copied to /scr/[user]/COAMPS/data...the site (DSRC or local) and the platform (BABBAGE. DAVINCI , EINSTEIN, or local machine) on which COAMPS is being run. site=navy_dsrc (for DSRC

  19. The ocean-atmosphere response to wind-induced thermocline changes in the tropical South Western Indian Ocean

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Manola, Iris; Selten, F. M.; De Ruijter, W. P M; Hazeleger, W.

    2014-01-01

    In the Indian Ocean basin the sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are most sensitive to changes in the oceanic depth of the thermocline in the region of the Seychelles Dome. Observational studies have suggested that the strong SST variations in this region influence the atmospheric evolution around the

  20. Impact of resolving the diurnal cycle in an ocean-atmosphere GCM. Pt. 1: a diurnally forced OGCM

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bernie, D.J. [University of Reading, National Centre for Atmospheric Science - Climate, Department of Meteorology, Reading (United Kingdom); Laboratoire d' Oceanographie et du Climat, Experimentation et Approches Numeriques, IPSL, Paris (France); Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, EX1 3PB (United Kingdom); Guilyardi, E. [University of Reading, National Centre for Atmospheric Science - Climate, Department of Meteorology, Reading (United Kingdom); Laboratoire d' Oceanographie et du Climat, Experimentation et Approches Numeriques, IPSL, Paris (France); Madec, G. [Laboratoire d' Oceanographie et du Climat, Experimentation et Approches Numeriques, IPSL, Paris (France); Slingo, J.M.; Woolnough, S.J. [University of Reading, National Centre for Atmospheric Science - Climate, Department of Meteorology, Reading (United Kingdom)

    2007-11-15

    The diurnal cycle is a fundamental time scale in the climate system, at which the upper ocean and atmosphere are routinely observed to vary. Current climate models, however, are not configured to resolve the diurnal cycle in the upper ocean or the interaction of the ocean and atmosphere on these time scales. This study examines the diurnal cycle of the tropical upper ocean and its climate impacts. In the present paper, the first of two, a high vertical resolution ocean general circulation model (OGCM), with modified physics, is developed which is able to resolve the diurnal cycle of sea surface temperature (SST) and current variability in the upper ocean. It is then validated against a satellite derived parameterization of diurnal SST variability and in-situ current observations. The model is then used to assess rectification of the intraseasonal SST response to the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) by the diurnal cycle of SST. Across the equatorial Indo-Pacific it is found that the diurnal cycle increases the intraseasonal SST response to the MJO by around 20%. In the Pacific, the diurnal cycle also modifies the exchange of momentum between equatorially divergent Ekman currents and the meridionally convergent geostrophic currents beneath, resulting in a 10% increase in the strength of the Ekman cells and equatorial upwelling. How the thermodynamic and dynamical impacts of the diurnal cycle effect the mean state, and variability, of the climate system cannot be fully investigated in the constrained design of ocean-only experiments presented here. The second part of this study, published separately, addresses the climate impacts of the diurnal cycle in the coupled system by coupling the OGCM developed here to an atmosphere general circulation model. (orig.)

  1. Ocean-Atmosphere CO2 Fluxes in the North Atlantic Subtropical Gyre: Association with Biochemical and Physical Factors during Spring

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Macarena Burgos

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Sea surface partial pressure of CO2 (pCO2 was measured continuously in a transect of the North Atlantic subtropical gyre between Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic (18.1° N, 68.5° W and Vigo, Spain (41.9° N, 11.8° W during spring 2011. Additional biogeochemical and physical variables measured to identify factors controlling the surface pCO2 were analyzed in discrete samples collected at 16 sites along the transect at the surface and to a depth of 200 m. Sea surface pCO2 varied between 309 and 662 μatm, and showed differences between the western and eastern subtropical gyre. The subtropical gyre acted as a net CO2 sink, with a mean flux of −5.5 ± 2.2 mmol m−2 day−1. The eastern part of the transect, close to the North Atlantic Iberian upwelling off the Galician coast, was a CO2 source with an average flux of 33.5 ± 9.0 mmol m−2 day−1. Our results highlight the importance of making more surface pCO2 observations in the area located east of the Azores Islands since air-sea CO2 fluxes there are poorly studied.

  2. Application of coupled ocean-atmospheric RTM SCIATRAN to retrieve chlorophyll and CDOM fluorescence from space: first results

    OpenAIRE

    Wolanin, Aleksandra; Dinter, Tilman; Rozanov, V.; Bracher, Astrid

    2012-01-01

    Colored dissolved organic matter (CDOM) is the main abiotic photoreactive constituent in marine waters. It strongly absorbs light in UV and blue region of light spectrum, reducing potentially harmful UV radiation, but also - when abundant - limiting the amount of light available for photosynthesis. DOM is a significant element in the carbon cycle and thus its optical properties have been studied extensively to estimate CDOM concentration and characterize its chemical composition. It has...

  3. Progress Towards Achieving the Challenge of Indian Summer Monsoon Climate Simulation in a Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hazra, Anupam; Chaudhari, Hemantkumar S.; Saha, Subodh Kumar; Pokhrel, Samir; Goswami, B. N.

    2017-10-01

    Simulation of the spatial and temporal structure of the monsoon intraseasonal oscillations (MISOs), which have effects on the seasonal mean and annual cycle of Indian summer monsoon (ISM) rainfall, remains a grand challenge for the state-of-the-art global coupled models. Biases in simulation of the amplitude and northward propagation of MISOs and related dry rainfall bias over ISM region in climate models are limiting the current skill of monsoon prediction. Recent observations indicate that the convective microphysics of clouds may be critical in simulating the observed MISOs. The hypothesis is strongly supported by high fidelity in simulation of the amplitude and space-time spectra of MISO by a coupled climate model, when our physically based modified cloud microphysics scheme is implemented in conjunction with a modified new Simple Arakawa Schubert (nSAS) convective parameterization scheme. Improved simulation of MISOs appears to have been aided by much improved simulation of the observed high cloud fraction and convective to stratiform rain fractions and resulted into a much improved simulation of the ISM rainfall, monsoon onset, and the annual cycle.

  4. INTERACTIONS BETWEEN MODULATED LUMINANCE PATTERNS AND RANDOM-DOT PATTERNS

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    CORNELISSEN, FW; KOOIJMAN, AC

    1994-01-01

    It has been suggested that density modulated random-dot patterns can be used to study higher order pattern vision [Van Meeteren and Barlow (1981) Vision Research, 21, 765-777]. The high contrast dots of which the pattern is composed, are assumed to be reliably transduced-and transmitted by the lower

  5. Archetypes as action patterns.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hogenson, George B

    2009-06-01

    The discovery of mirror neurons by researchers at the University of Parma promises to radically alter our understanding of fundamental cognitive and affective states. This paper explores the relationship of mirror neurons to Jung's theory of archetypes and proposes that archetypes may be viewed as elementary action patterns. The paper begins with a review of a proposed interpretation of the fainting spells of S. Freud in his relationship with Jung as an example of an action pattern that also defines an archetypal image. The challenge that mirror neurons present to traditional views in analytical psychology and psychoanalysis, however, is that they operate without recourse to a cognitive processing element. This is a position that is gaining increasing acceptance in other fields as well. The paper therefore reviews the most recent claims made by the Boston Process of Change Study Group as well as conclusions drawn from dynamic systems views of development and theoretical robotics to underline the conclusion that unconscious agency is not a requirement for coherent action. It concludes with the suggestion that this entire body of research may lead to the conclusion that the dynamic unconscious is an unnecessary hypothesis in psychoanalysis and analytical psychology.

  6. Patterns of Negotiation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sood, Suresh; Pattinson, Hugh

    Traditionally, face-to-face negotiations in the real world have not been looked at as a complex systems interaction of actors resulting in a dynamic and potentially emergent system. If indeed negotiations are an outcome of a dynamic interaction of simpler behavior just as with a complex system, we should be able to see the patterns contributing to the complexities of a negotiation under study. This paper and the supporting research sets out to show B2B (business-to-business) negotiations as complex systems of interacting actors exhibiting dynamic and emergent behavior. This paper discusses the exploratory research based on negotiation simulations in which a large number of business students participate as buyers and sellers. The student interactions are captured on video and a purpose built research method attempts to look for patterns of interactions between actors using visualization techniques traditionally reserved to observe the algorithmic complexity of complex systems. Students are videoed negotiating with partners. Each video is tagged according to a recognized classification and coding scheme for negotiations. The classification relates to the phases through which any particular negotiation might pass, such as laughter, aggression, compromise, and so forth — through some 30 possible categories. Were negotiations more or less successful if they progressed through the categories in different ways? Furthermore, does the data depict emergent pathway segments considered to be more or less successful? This focus on emergence within the data provides further strong support for face-to-face (F2F) negotiations to be construed as complex systems.

  7. Female Pattern Hair Loss

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herskovitz, Ingrid; Tosti, Antonella

    2013-01-01

    Context: Female pattern hair loss (FPHL) also known as female androgenetic alopecia is a common condition afflicting millions of women that can be cosmetically disrupting. Prompt diagnosis and treatment are essential for obtaining optimal outcome. This review addresses the clinical presentation of female pattern hair loss, its differential diagnosis and treatment modalities. Evidence Acquisition: A) Diffuse thinning of the crown region with preservation of the frontal hairline (Ludwig’s type) B) The “Christmas tree pattern” where the thinning is wider in the frontal scalp giving the alopecic area a triangular shaped figure resembling a christmas tree. C) Thinning associated with bitemporal recession (Hamilton type). Generally, FPHL is not associated with elevated androgens. Less commonly females with FPHL may have other skin or general signs of hyperandrogenism such as hirsutism, acne, irregular menses, infertility, galactorrhea and insulin resistance. The most common endocrinological abnormality associated with FPHL is polycystic ovarian syndrome (PCOS). Results: The most important diseases to consider in the differential diagnosis of FPHL include Chronic Telogen Effluvium (CTE), Permanent Alopecia after Chemotherapy (PAC), Alopecia Areata Incognito (AAI) and Frontal Fibrosing Alopecia (FFA). This review describes criteria for distinguishing these conditions from FPHL. Conclusions: The only approved treatment for FPHL, which is 2% topical Minoxidil, should be applied at the dosage of 1ml twice day for a minimum period of 12 months. This review will discuss off-label alternative modalities of treatment including 5-alfa reductase inhibitors, antiandrogens, estrogens, prostaglandin analogs, lasers, light treatments and hair transplantation. PMID:24719635

  8. Hidden patterns of reciprocity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Syi

    2014-03-21

    Reciprocity can help the evolution of cooperation. To model both types of reciprocity, we need the concept of strategy. In the case of direct reciprocity there are four second-order action rules (Simple Tit-for-tat, Contrite Tit-for-tat, Pavlov, and Grim Trigger), which are able to promote cooperation. In the case of indirect reciprocity the key component of cooperation is the assessment rule. There are, again, four elementary second-order assessment rules (Image Scoring, Simple Standing, Stern Judging, and Shunning). The eight concepts can be formalized in an ontologically thin way we need only an action predicate and a value function, two agent concepts, and the constant of goodness. The formalism helps us to discover that the action and assessment rules can be paired, and that they show the same patterns. The logic of these patterns can be interpreted with the concept of punishment that has an inherent paradoxical nature. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Harmonic Patterns in Forex Trading

    OpenAIRE

    Nemček, Sebastian

    2013-01-01

    This diploma thesis is committed to examination of validity of Harmonic Patterns in Forex trading. Scott Carney described existing and introduced new Harmonic Patterns in 1999 in his book Harmonic Trader. These patterns use the Fibonacci principle to analyze price action and to provide both bullish and bearish trading signals. The goal of this thesis is to find out whether harmonic trading strategy on selected pairs is profitable in FX market, which patterns are the most profitable and what i...

  10. Making sense of design patterns

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hoekstra, R.; Breuker, J.

    2010-01-01

    This paper discusses the way in which design patterns may improve the current practice of ontology engineering. It presents five requirements that go beyond the current state of the art of collecting and curating design patterns. We build on the thesis outlined in [17] that design patterns should be

  11. Soft lithography of ceramic patterns

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Göbel, Ole; Nedelcu, M.; Steiner, U.

    2007-01-01

    Polymer-based precursor solutions are patterned using a soft-lithographic patterning technique to yield sub-micrometer-sized ceramic patterns. By using a polymer-metal-nitrate solution as a lithographic resist, we demonstrate a micromolding procedure using a simple rubber stamp that yields a

  12. Using large-scale climate indices in climate change ecology studies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Forchhammer, Mads Cedergreen; Post, Eric

    2004-01-01

    Ecological responses, El Niño 3.4, Long-term climate variability, North Atlantic Oscillation, North Pacific Oscillation, Teleconnection patterns......Ecological responses, El Niño 3.4, Long-term climate variability, North Atlantic Oscillation, North Pacific Oscillation, Teleconnection patterns...

  13. Patterns of inclusion

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Alex Young; Nørgård, Rikke Toft; Köppe, Christian

    2018-01-01

    Reconsidering the concept of digital citizenship and the essential component of education the authors propose that the concept of Hybrid Education may serve both as a guideline for the utilization of digital technologies in education and as a methodology for fostering new forms of participation......, inclusion and engagement in society. Following T.H. Marshall’s conception of citizenship the authors suggest that becoming, belonging and the capabilities to do so is essential to digital citizenship in a culturally diverse and digitally mediated world. The paper presents a theory-based, value driven...... for Hybrid Education that are directly applicable in relation to the concept of digital citizenship. The process introduces a value-based and vision-driven design pattern approach to innovation in education by framing and aligning values and visions of the participants. This work resulted in approximately 85...

  14. Female pattern hair loss

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Archana Singal

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Female pattern hair loss (FPHL is a common cause of hair loss in women characterized by diffuse reduction in hair density over the crown and frontal scalp with retention of the frontal hairline. Its prevalence increases with advancing age and is associated with significant psychological morbidity. The pathophysiology of FPHL is still not completely understood and seems to be multifactorial. Although androgens have been implicated, the involvement of androgen-independent mechanisms is evident from frequent lack of clinical or biochemical markers of hyperandrogenism in affected women. The role of genetic polymorphisms involving the androgen and estrogen receptors is being increasingly recognized in its causation and predicting treatment response to anti-androgens. There are different clinical patterns and classifications of FPHL, knowledge of which facilitates patient management and research. Chronic telogen effluvium remains as the most important differential diagnosis. Thorough history, clinical examination, and evaluation are essential to confirm diagnosis. Patients with clinical signs of androgen excess require assessment of biochemical parameters and imaging studies. It is prudent to screen the patients for metabolic syndrome and cardiovascular risk factors. The treatment comprises medical and/or surgical modalities. Medical treatment should be initiated early as it effectively arrests hair loss progression rather than stimulating regrowth. Minoxidil continues to be the first line therapy whereas anti-androgens form the second line of treatment. The progressive nature of FPHL mandates long-term treatment for sustained effect. Medical therapy may be supplemented with cosmetic concealment in those desirous of greater hair density. Surgery may be worthwhile in some carefully selected patients.

  15. Personal continuous route pattern mining

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Qian YE; Ling CHEN; Gen-cai CHEN

    2009-01-01

    In the daily life, people often repeat regular routes in certain periods. In this paper, a mining system is developed to find the continuous route patterns of personal past trips. In order to count the diversity of personal moving status, the mining system employs the adaptive GPS data recording and five data filters to guarantee the clean trips data. The mining system uses a client/server architecture to protect personal privacy and to reduce the computational load. The server conducts the main mining procedure but with insufficient information to recover real personal routes. In order to improve the scalability of sequential pattern mining, a novel pattern mining algorithm, continuous route pattern mining (CRPM), is proposed. This algorithm can tolerate the different disturbances in real routes and extract the frequent patterns. Experimental results based on nine persons' trips show that CRPM can extract more than two times longer route patterns than the traditional route pattern mining algorithms.

  16. Pattern optimizing verification of self-align quadruple patterning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamato, Masatoshi; Yamada, Kazuki; Oyama, Kenichi; Hara, Arisa; Natori, Sakurako; Yamauchi, Shouhei; Koike, Kyohei; Yaegashi, Hidetami

    2017-03-01

    Lithographic scaling continues to advance by extending the life of 193nm immersion technology, and spacer-type multi-patterning is undeniably the driving force behind this trend. Multi-patterning techniques such as self-aligned double patterning (SADP) and self-aligned quadruple patterning (SAQP) have come to be used in memory devices, and they have also been adopted in logic devices to create constituent patterns in the formation of 1D layout designs. Multi-patterning has consequently become an indispensible technology in the fabrication of all advanced devices. In general, items that must be managed when using multi-patterning include critical dimension uniformity (CDU), line edge roughness (LER), and line width roughness (LWR). Recently, moreover, there has been increasing focus on judging and managing pattern resolution performance from a more detailed perspective and on making a right/wrong judgment from the perspective of edge placement error (EPE). To begin with, pattern resolution performance in spacer-type multi-patterning is affected by the process accuracy of the core (mandrel) pattern. Improving the controllability of CD and LER of the mandrel is most important, and to reduce LER, an appropriate smoothing technique should be carefully selected. In addition, the atomic layer deposition (ALD) technique is generally used to meet the need for high accuracy in forming the spacer film. Advances in scaling are accompanied by stricter requirements in the controllability of fine processing. In this paper, we first describe our efforts in improving controllability by selecting the most appropriate materials for the mandrel pattern and spacer film. Then, based on the materials selected, we present experimental results on a technique for improving etching selectivity.

  17. Patterns in the mind

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Acosta Alejandro

    1999-06-01

    Full Text Available

     A mediados de la década de los noventa, el lingüista estadounidense Ray Jackendoff, meditando acerca de la situación de los avances en su campo de trabajo, publicó el libro Patterns in the Mind con el objetivo de poner al alcance del público no especializado los avances de la psicología cognitiva a partir de los postulados básicos de la revolución lingüística y cognitiva que
    floreció gracias a los trabajos del también lingüista norteamericano Noam Chomsky, a finales de la década de los cincuenta y principios de la de los sesenta. Su presencia en el desarrollo de esta nueva etapa del estudio del lenguaje y sus intereses en las nuevas teorías psicológicas 10 ubicaron en un marco teórico que comprende postulados acerca de la organización modular de las estructuras y procesos mentales, el innatismo de este tipo de organización y la existencia de una serie de patrones que rigen la construcción de gramáticas mentalesinconscientes para diversos dominios de la naturaleza humana.

  18. Childlessness patterns in Taiwan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poston Dl

    1988-06-01

    Taiwan is a newly developed and industrialized area, and along with Korea, Brazil, Argentina, and a few other countries, belongs in a special class of recently industrialized areas. Taiwan has been undergoing large-scale modernization since the 1950s when the Nationalist government 1st began to implement land reform programs and today is 1 of the showcase of newly developed areas of the world. Demographic transition theory shows that fertility is negatively associated with modernization. During the past 3 decades, fertility in Taiwan has followed this pattern in a dramatic manner. Studies of childlessness conducted in Western countries have shown also that as the modernizing influences continue, fertility declines, and childlessness increases as it becomes more and more voluntary. Subregions with the highest levels of modernization and the lowest fertility rates should therefore be characterized by the highest levels of childlessness, particularly among younger women, and vice versa. Given the levels of socioeconomic and demographic development in Taiwan and its subregions circa 1980, as well as its variability among the hsiens and major cities, the author would expect to find higher levels of childlessness in the more developed localities, and lower levels in the less developed subregions. This hypothesis is tested with data from the 1980 Census of Population and Housing: General Report, Taiwan--Fukien Area (Republic of China, 1982) and the 1980 Taiwan--Fukien Demographic Fact Book (Republic of China, 1980).

  19. Structure of multidimensional patterns

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, S.P.

    1982-01-01

    The problem of describing the structure of multidimensional data is important in exploratory data analysis, statistical pattern recognition, and image processing. A data set is viewed as a collection of points embedded in a high dimensional space. The primary goal of this research is to determine if the data have any clustering structure; such a structure implies the presence of class information (categories) in the data. A statistical hypothesis is used in the decision making. To this end, data with no structure are defined as data following the uniform distribution over some compact convex set in K-dimensional space, called the sampling window. This thesis defines two new tests for uniformity along with various sampling window estimators. The first test is a volume-based test which captures density changes in the data. The second test compares a uniformly distributed sample to the data by using the minimal spanning tree (MST) of the polled samples. Sampling window estimators are provided for simple sampling windows and use the convex hull of the data as a general sampling window estimator. For both of the tests for uniformity, theoretical results are provided on their size, and study their size and power against clustered alternatives is studied. Simulation is also used to study the efficacy of the sampling window estimators

  20. Pattern recognition in spectra

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gebran, M; Paletou, F

    2017-01-01

    We present a new automated procedure that simultaneously derives the effective temperature T eff , surface gravity log g , metallicity [ Fe/H ], and equatorial projected rotational velocity v e sin i for stars. The procedure is inspired by the well-known PCA-based inversion of spectropolarimetric full-Stokes solar data, which was used both for Zeeman and Hanle effects. The efficiency and accuracy of this procedure have been proven for FGK, A, and late type dwarf stars of K and M spectral types. Learning databases are generated from the Elodie stellar spectra library using observed spectra for which fundamental parameters were already evaluated or with synthetic data. The synthetic spectra are calculated using ATLAS9 model atmospheres. This technique helped us to detect many peculiar stars such as Am, Ap, HgMn, SiEuCr and binaries. This fast and efficient technique could be used every time a pattern recognition is needed. One important application is the understanding of the physical properties of planetary surfaces by comparing aboard instrument data to synthetic ones. (paper)

  1. The Mexican Drought Atlas: Tree-ring reconstructions of the soil moisture balance during the late pre-Hispanic, colonial, and modern eras

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stahle, David W.; Cook, Edward R.; Burnette, Dorian J.; Villanueva, Jose; Cerano, Julian; Burns, Jordan N.; Griffin, Daniel; Cook, Benjamin I.; Acuña, Rodolfo; Torbenson, Max C. A.; Szejner, Paul; Howard, Ian M.

    2016-10-01

    Mexico has suffered a long history and prehistory of severe sustained drought. Drought over Mexico is modulated by ocean-atmospheric variability in the Atlantic and Pacific, raising the possibility for long-range seasonal climate forecasting, which could help mediate the economic and social impacts of future dry spells. The instrumental record of Mexican climate is very limited before 1920, but tree-ring chronologies developed from old-growth forests in Mexico can provide an excellent proxy representation of the spatial pattern and intensity of past moisture regimes useful for the analysis of climate dynamics and climate impacts. The Mexican Drought Atlas (MXDA) has been developed from an extensive network of 252 climate sensitive tree-ring chronologies in and near Mexico. The MXDA reconstructions extend from 1400 CE-2012 and were calibrated with the instrumental summer (JJA) self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index (scPDSI) on a 0.5° latitude/longitude grid extending over land areas from 14 to 34°N and 75-120°W using Ensemble Point-by-Point Regression (EPPR) for the 1944-1984 period. The grid point reconstructions were validated for the period 1920-1943 against instrumental gridded scPDSI values based on the fewer weather station observations available during that interval. The MXDA provides a new spatial perspective on the historical impacts of moisture extremes over Mexico during the past 600-years, including the Aztec Drought of One Rabbit in 1454, the drought of El Año de Hambre in 1785-1786, and the drought that preceded the Mexican Revolution of 1909-1910. The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most important ocean-atmospheric forcing of moisture variability detected with the MXDA. In fact, the reconstructions suggest that the strongest central equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) teleconnection to the soil moisture balance over North America may reside in northern Mexico. This ENSO signal has stronger and more time

  2. A Database Integrity Pattern Language

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Octavian Paul ROTARU

    2004-08-01

    Full Text Available Patterns and Pattern Languages are ways to capture experience and make it re-usable for others, and describe best practices and good designs. Patterns are solutions to recurrent problems.This paper addresses the database integrity problems from a pattern perspective. Even if the number of vendors of database management systems is quite high, the number of available solutions to integrity problems is limited. They all learned from the past experience applying the same solutions over and over again.The solutions to avoid integrity threats applied to in database management systems (DBMS can be formalized as a pattern language. Constraints, transactions, locks, etc, are recurrent integrity solutions to integrity threats and therefore they should be treated accordingly, as patterns.

  3. Dietary patterns and colorectal cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tayyem, Reema F; Bawadi, Hiba A; Shehadah, Ihab; Agraib, Lana M; AbuMweis, Suhad S; Al-Jaberi, Tareq; Al-Nusairr, Majed; Bani-Hani, Kamal E; Heath, Dennis D

    2017-06-01

    Dietary pattern and lifestyle have been reported to be important risk factors in the development of colorectal cancer (CRC). However, the mechanism of action of dietary factors in CRC disease is unclear. The aim of this study is the examination of several dietary choices and their potential association with the risk of developing CRC. Dietary data was collected from 220 subjects who were previously diagnosed with CRC, and 281 control subjects (matched by age, gender, occupation and marital status). The data was collected between January 2010 and December 2012, using interview-based questionnaires. Multivariate logistic regression was used to estimate the relationship between dietary choices and risk of developing colorectal cancer. Factor analysis revealed three major dietary patterns. The first pattern we identified as the "Healthy Pattern", the second was identified as "High Sugar/High Tea Pattern" and the third as "Western Pattern". In the Healthy Pattern group we found a 10.54% variation in food intake, while the intake variation was 11.64% in the Western Pattern. After adjusting for confounding factors, the Western Pattern food choice was found to be significantly associated with an increased risk of developing CRC (OR = 1.88; 95% CI = 1.12-3.16). The results for the Healthy and High-Sugar/High Tea Patterns showed a decrease, but the statistic was not significant for the risk of CRC development. The Western Pattern of dietary choice was directly associated with CRC. The association between the dietary food choice in the Healthy and High-Sugar/High Tea Patterns and colorectal cancer needs further study in our Jordanian population. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd and European Society for Clinical Nutrition and Metabolism. All rights reserved.

  4. Energy demand patterns

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hoffmann, L; Schipper, L; Meyers, S; Sathaye, J; Hara, Y

    1984-05-01

    This report brings together three papers on energy demand presented at the Energy Research Priorities Seminar held in Ottawa on 8-10 August 1983. The first paper suggests a framework in which energy demand studies may be organized if they are to be useful in policy-making. Disaggregation and the analysis of the chain of energy transformations are possible paths toward more stable and reliable parameters. The second paper points to another factor that leads to instability in sectoral parameters, namely a changeover from one technology to another; insofar as technologies producing a product (or service) vary in their energy intensity, a technological shift will also change the energy intensity of the product. Rapid technological change is characteristic of some sectors in developing countries, and may well account for the high aggregate GDP-elasticities of energy consumption observed. The third paper begins with estimates of these elasticities, which were greater than one for all the member countries of the Asian Development Bank in 1961-78. The high elasticities, together with extreme oil dependence, made them vulnerable to the drastic rise in the oil price after 1973. The author distinguishes three diverging patterns of national experience. The oil-surplus countries naturally gained from the rise in the oil price. Among oil-deficit countries, the newly industrialized countries expanded their exports so rapidly that the oil crisis no longer worried them. For the rest, balance of payments adjustments became a prime concern of policy. Whether they dealt with the oil bill by borrowing, by import substitution, or by demand restraint, the impact of energy on their growth was unmistakable. The paper also shows why energy-demand studies, and energy studies in general, deserve to be taken seriously. 16 refs., 4 figs., 18 tabs.

  5. Patterns of ocular trauma

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Babar, T.F.; Khan, M.T.; Marwat, M.; Shah, A.; Murad, Y.; Khan, M.D.

    2007-01-01

    To describe the patterns of ocular trauma, cause of injury and its effects on eye. A retrospective case series. Medical records of 1105 patients admitted with ocular trauma were reviewed. The details of patients regarding age, gender, literacy, cause of injury and its effects on eye were entered into specially-designed performa. Sample selection consisted of all patients with history of ocular trauma and who were admitted to hospital. Population details consisted patients who were referred to the hospital from all parts of N.W.F.P. Thus, the frequency of trauma in the hospital admissions was analysed. Ophthalmic trauma comprised 6.78% of the hospital admission. One thousand one hundred and five patients presented with eye injuries. Out of them, 21 patients suffered from trauma to both eyes. Almost 80% patients were male and 69% patients were below 30 years of age. Delayed presentation was more common and 63.61% patients presented after one week. Open globe injuries were more common (520 eyes (46.18%)) than closed globe injuries (484 eyes (42.98%)). 23.26% of open globe injuries were associated with intraocular and intra-orbital foreign bodies. Superficial non-perforating, eyelid and adnexal and burns were seen in 122 eyes (10.83%). Among the complications, lens damage and hyphema was seen in more than 50% of the patients, 16.60% eyes were infected at the time of admission and 4.88% of eyes needed enucleation or evisceration. The common causes of injury were violence in 37.37%, occupational in 24.43% and domestic accidents in 19.18%. Ophthalmic trauma is a major public health problem. Majority of the involved are male and under 30 years of age. Delayed presentation is more common. Open globe injuries are more frequent. Violence and occupational injuries are the major causes. (author)

  6. Patterns for Parallel Software Design

    CERN Document Server

    Ortega-Arjona, Jorge Luis

    2010-01-01

    Essential reading to understand patterns for parallel programming Software patterns have revolutionized the way we think about how software is designed, built, and documented, and the design of parallel software requires you to consider other particular design aspects and special skills. From clusters to supercomputers, success heavily depends on the design skills of software developers. Patterns for Parallel Software Design presents a pattern-oriented software architecture approach to parallel software design. This approach is not a design method in the classic sense, but a new way of managin

  7. Professional Java EE design patterns

    CERN Document Server

    Yener, Murat

    2014-01-01

    Master Java EE design pattern implementation to improve your design skills and your application's architecture Professional Java EE Design Patterns is the perfect companion for anyone who wants to work more effectively with Java EE, and the only resource that covers both the theory and application of design patterns in solving real-world problems. The authors guide readers through both the fundamental and advanced features of Java EE 7, presenting patterns throughout, and demonstrating how they are used in day-to-day problem solving. As the most popular programming language in community-dri

  8. Teleconnections from Tropics to Northern Extratropics through a Southerly Conveyor

    OpenAIRE

    Wang, Zhuo; Chang, C.-P.; Wang, Bin; Jin, Fei-fei

    2005-01-01

    Rossby wave propagation theory predicts that Rossby waves in a tropical easterly flow cannot escape from the Tropics to the extratropics. Here the authors show that a southerly flow component in the basic state (a southerly conveyor) may transfer a Rossby wave source northward; thus, a forcing embedded in the deep tropical easterlies may excite a Rossby wave response in the extratropical westerlies. It is shown that the southerly conveyor determines the location of the effective R...

  9. Megacity precipitationsheds reveal tele-connected water security challenges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang-Erlandsson, Lan; Gordon, Line J.

    2018-01-01

    Urbanization is a global process that has taken billions of people from the rural countryside to concentrated urban centers, adding pressure to existing water resources. Many cities are specifically reliant on renewable freshwater regularly refilled by precipitation, rather than fossil groundwater or desalination. A precipitationshed can be considered the “watershed of the sky” and identifies the origin of precipitation falling in a given region. In this paper, we use this concept to determine the sources of precipitation that supply renewable water in the watersheds of the largest cities of the world. We quantify the sources of precipitation for 29 megacities and analyze their differences between dry and wet years. Our results reveal that 19 of 29 megacities depend for more than a third of their water supply on evaporation from land. We also show that for many of the megacities, the terrestrial dependence is higher in dry years. This high dependence on terrestrial evaporation for their precipitation exposes these cities to potential land-use change that could reduce the evaporation that generates precipitation. Combining indicators of water stress, moisture recycling exposure, economic capacity, vegetation-regulated evaporation, land-use change, and dry-season moisture recycling sensitivity reveals four highly vulnerable megacities (Karachi, Shanghai, Wuhan, and Chongqing). A further six megacities were found to have medium vulnerability with regard to their water supply. We conclude that understanding how upwind landscapes affect downwind municipal water resources could be a key component for understanding the complexity of urban water security. PMID:29534109

  10. Tropical tele-connections to the Mediterranean climate and weather

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Alpert

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available Some strong natural fluctuations of climate in the Eastern Mediterranean (EM region are shown to be connected to the major tropical systems. Potential relations between EM rainfall extremes to tropical systems, e.g. El Niño, Indian Monsoon and hurricanes, are demonstrated. For a specific event, high resolution modelling of the severe flood on 3-5 December 2001 in Israel suggests a relation to hurricane Olga. In order to understand the factors governing the EM climate variability in the summer season, the relationship between extreme summer temperatures and the Indian Monsoon was examined. Other tropical factors like the Red-Sea Trough system and the Saharan dust are also likely to contribute to the EM climate variability.

  11. Influence of climatic teleconnections on the temporal isotopic ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    a close relation to the El Ni˜no Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability. The ENSO indices ... record seems to have been caused through an atmospheric mechanism. ... temperature prior and subsequent to the year 1997. ... in the reconstruction of past climate change and suggests possible influence of climatic teleconnec-.

  12. Varied representation of the West Pacific pattern in multiple dynamical seasonal predictions of APCC-MME

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Yun-Young

    2017-04-01

    West Pacific (WP) teleconnection pattern is one of the well-known primary modes of boreal winter low-frequency variability (LFV) resolved in 500 hPa geopotential height and its phase and amplitude strongly influence regional weather conditions including temperature and rainfall extremes [Baxter and Nigam, 2015; Hsu and Wallace, 1985; Linkin and Nigam, 2008; Mo and Livezey, 1986; Thompson and Wallace, 1998; Wallace and Gutzler, 1981]. This study primary aims to evaluate individual 11 GCMs seasonal hindcasts employed as members of multi-model ensemble (MME) produced in APEC Climate Center (APCC) in representing WP. For the extensive and comprehensive evaluation, this study applied seven verification metrics in three scopes: (a) temporal representation of observed indices, (b) spatial mode separation in the Northern Hemisphere (NH), and (c) regional mode isolated in the preset longitudinal domain. Verification results display quite large inter-model spread. Some models mimic observed index variability while others display large bias of index variability compared to climatology. Basic north-south dipole pattern is mostly well reproduced in both rotated and unrotated loading modes. However, each individual seasonal forecast model exhibits slightly different behavior (e.g. amplification/weakening, zonal and meridional shift, downstream extension and so forth) in representing spatial structure of WP. When taking all 7 metrics into account, one Europe (CMCC) model, one Oceania (POAMA) model and two North America (NASA and NCEP) models are classified as relatively good performers while PNU is classified as a matchless poor performer out of 11. Least WP representing skill of PNU is sort of consistent with the largest bias of NH total variability. This study further tries to examine winter mean biases of individual models and figure out how mean bias is linked to WP representation in model world. Model bias of winter climatology is investigated focusing on six large scale

  13. Patterning nanocrystals using DNA

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Williams, Shara Carol [Univ. of California, Berkeley, CA (United States)

    2003-01-01

    One of the goals of nanotechnology is to enable programmed self-assembly of patterns made of various materials with nanometer-sized control. This dissertation describes the results of experiments templating arrangements of gold and semiconductor nanocrystals using 2'-deoxyribonucleic acid (DNA). Previously, simple DNA-templated linear arrangements of two and three nanocrystals structures have been made.[1] Here, we have sought to assemble larger and more complex nanostructures. Gold-DNA conjugates with 50 to 100 bases self-assembled into planned arrangements using strands of DNA containing complementary base sequences. We used two methods to increase the complexity of the arrangements: using branched synthetic doublers within the DNA covalent backbone to create discrete nanocrystal groupings, and incorporating the nanocrystals into a previously developed DNA lattice structure [2][3] that self-assembles from tiles made of DNA double-crossover molecules to create ordered nanoparticle arrays. In the first project, the introduction of a covalently-branched synthetic doubler reagent into the backbone of DNA strands created a branched DNA ''trimer.'' This DNA trimer templated various structures that contained groupings of three and four gold nanoparticles, giving promising, but inconclusive transmission electron microscopy (TEM) results. Due to the presence of a variety of possible structures in the reaction mixtures, and due to the difficulty of isolating the desired structures, the TEM and gel electrophoresis results for larger structures having four particles, and for structures containing both 5 and 10 nm gold nanoparticles were inconclusive. Better results may come from using optical detection methods, or from improved sample preparation. In the second project, we worked toward making two-dimensional ordered arrays of nanocrystals. We replicated and improved upon previous results for making DNA lattices, increasing the size of the lattices

  14. Eolian dust dispersal patterns since the last glacial period in eastern Central Asia: insights from a loess-paleosol sequence in the Ili Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Yue; Song, Yougui; Fitzsimmons, Kathryn E.; Chang, Hong; Orozbaev, Rustam; Li, Xinxin

    2018-03-01

    The extensive loess deposits of the Eurasian mid-latitudes provide important terrestrial archives of Quaternary climatic change. As yet, however, loess records in Central Asia are poorly understood. Here we investigate the grain size and magnetic characteristics of loess from the Nilka (NLK) section in the Ili Basin of eastern Central Asia. Weak pedogenesis suggested by frequency-dependent magnetic susceptibility (χfd%) and magnetic susceptibility (MS) peaks in primary loess suggest that MS is more strongly influenced by allogenetic magnetic minerals than pedogenesis, and may therefore be used to indicate wind strength. This is supported by the close correlation between variations in MS and proportions of the sand-sized fraction. To further explore the temporal variability in dust transport patterns, we identified three grain size end-members (EM1, mode size 47.5 µm; EM2, 33.6 µm; EM3, 18.9 µm) which represent distinct aerodynamic environments. EM1 and EM2 are inferred to represent grain size fractions transported from proximal sources in short-term, near-surface suspension during dust outbreaks. EM3 appears to represent a continuous background dust fraction under non-dust storm conditions. Of the three end-members, EM1 is most likely the most sensitive recorder of wind strength. We compare our EM1 proportions with mean grain size from the Jingyuan section in the Chinese loess plateau, and assess these in the context of modern and Holocene climate data. Our research suggests that the Siberian High pressure system is the dominant influence on wind dynamics, resulting in loess deposition in the eastern Ili Basin. Six millennial-scale cooling (Heinrich) events can be identified in the NLK loess records. Our grain size data support the hypothesis that the Siberian High acts as teleconnection between the climatic systems of the North Atlantic and East Asia in the high northern latitudes, but not for the mid-latitude westerlies.

  15. Capillarity Guided Patterning of Microliquids.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kang, Myeongwoo; Park, Woohyun; Na, Sangcheol; Paik, Sang-Min; Lee, Hyunjae; Park, Jae Woo; Kim, Ho-Young; Jeon, Noo Li

    2015-06-01

    Soft lithography and other techniques have been developed to investigate biological and chemical phenomena as an alternative to photolithography-based patterning methods that have compatibility problems. Here, a simple approach for nonlithographic patterning of liquids and gels inside microchannels is described. Using a design that incorporates strategically placed microstructures inside the channel, microliquids or gels can be spontaneously trapped and patterned when the channel is drained. The ability to form microscale patterns inside microfluidic channels using simple fluid drain motion offers many advantages. This method is geometrically analyzed based on hydrodynamics and verified with simulation and experiments. Various materials (i.e., water, hydrogels, and other liquids) are successfully patterned with complex shapes that are isolated from each other. Multiple cell types are patterned within the gels. Capillarity guided patterning (CGP) is fast, simple, and robust. It is not limited by pattern shape, size, cell type, and material. In a simple three-step process, a 3D cancer model that mimics cell-cell and cell-extracellular matrix interactions is engineered. The simplicity and robustness of the CGP will be attractive for developing novel in vitro models of organ-on-a-chip and other biological experimental platforms amenable to long-term observation of dynamic events using advanced imaging and analytical techniques. © 2015 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

  16. Retirement Patterns and Income Inequality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fasang, Anette Eva

    2012-01-01

    How do social policies shape life courses, and which consequences do different life course patterns hold for individuals? This article engages the example of retirement in Germany and Britain to analyze life course patterns and their consequences for income inequality. Sequence analysis is used to measure retirement trajectories. The liberal…

  17. Pattern replication by confined dewetting

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Harkema, S.; Schäffer, E.; Morariu, M.D.; Steiner, U

    2003-01-01

    The dewetting of a polymer film in a confined geometry was employed in a pattern-replication process. The instability of dewetting films is pinned by a structured confining surface, thereby replicating its topographic pattern. Depending on the surface energy of the confining surface, two different

  18. Hostility, drinking pattern and mortality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Boyle, Stephen H; Mortensen, Laust Hvas; Grønbaek, Morten

    2008-01-01

    This study examined the association of hostility to drinking pattern and whether this association mediated the relation of hostility to mortality.......This study examined the association of hostility to drinking pattern and whether this association mediated the relation of hostility to mortality....

  19. Menstrual cycle pattern and fertility

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kolstad, Henrik A.; Bonde, Jens Peter; Hjøllund, Niels Henrik

    1999-01-01

    To characterize how the menstrual cycle pattern relates to fertility regardless of potential biases caused by inappropriate coital timing during the menstrual cycle or early embryonal loss.......To characterize how the menstrual cycle pattern relates to fertility regardless of potential biases caused by inappropriate coital timing during the menstrual cycle or early embryonal loss....

  20. Chopper model of pattern recognition

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Hemmen, J.L.; Enter, A.C.D. van

    A simple model is proposed that allows an efficient storage and retrieval of random patterns. Also correlated patterns can be handled. The data are stored in an Ising-spin system with ferromagnetic interactions between all the spins and the main idea is to "chop" the system along the boundaries

  1. Hand aperture patterns in prehension

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bongers, Raoul M.; Zaal, Frank T. J. M.; Jeannerod, Marc

    Although variations in the standard prehensile pattern can be found in the literature, these alternative patterns have never been studied systematically. This was the goal of the current paper. Ten participants picked up objects with a pincer grip. Objects (3, 5, or 7 cm in diameter) were placed at

  2. Dynamic Skin Patterns in Cephalopods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martin J. How

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Cephalopods are unrivaled in the natural world in their ability to alter their visual appearance. These mollusks have evolved a complex system of dermal units under neural, hormonal, and muscular control to produce an astonishing variety of body patterns. With parallels to the pixels on a television screen, cephalopod chromatophores can be coordinated to produce dramatic, dynamic, and rhythmic displays, defined collectively here as “dynamic patterns.” This study examines the nature, context, and potential functions of dynamic patterns across diverse cephalopod taxa. Examples are presented for 21 species, including 11 previously unreported in the scientific literature. These range from simple flashing or flickering patterns, to highly complex passing wave patterns involving multiple skin fields.

  3. Dynamic Skin Patterns in Cephalopods

    Science.gov (United States)

    How, Martin J.; Norman, Mark D.; Finn, Julian; Chung, Wen-Sung; Marshall, N. Justin

    2017-01-01

    Cephalopods are unrivaled in the natural world in their ability to alter their visual appearance. These mollusks have evolved a complex system of dermal units under neural, hormonal, and muscular control to produce an astonishing variety of body patterns. With parallels to the pixels on a television screen, cephalopod chromatophores can be coordinated to produce dramatic, dynamic, and rhythmic displays, defined collectively here as “dynamic patterns.” This study examines the nature, context, and potential functions of dynamic patterns across diverse cephalopod taxa. Examples are presented for 21 species, including 11 previously unreported in the scientific literature. These range from simple flashing or flickering patterns, to highly complex passing wave patterns involving multiple skin fields. PMID:28674500

  4. Nonlinear waves and pattern dynamics

    CERN Document Server

    Pelinovsky, Efim; Mutabazi, Innocent

    2018-01-01

    This book addresses the fascinating phenomena associated with nonlinear waves and spatio-temporal patterns. These appear almost everywhere in nature from sand bed forms to brain patterns, and yet their understanding still presents fundamental scientific challenges. The reader will learn here, in particular, about the current state-of-the art and new results in: Nonlinear water waves: resonance, solitons, focusing, Bose-Einstein condensation, as well as and their relevance for the sea environment (sea-wind interaction, sand bed forms, fiber clustering) Pattern formation in non-equilibrium media: soap films, chimera patterns in oscillating media, viscoelastic Couette-Taylor flow, flow in the wake behind a heated cylinder, other pattern formation. The editors and authors dedicate this book to the memory of Alexander Ezersky, Professor of Fluid Mechanics at the University of Caen Normandie (France) from September 2007 to July 2016. Before 2007, he had served as a Senior Scientist at the Institute of Applied Physi...

  5. Mobile Design Pattern Gallery UI Patterns for Mobile Applications

    CERN Document Server

    Neil, Theresa

    2012-01-01

    When you're under pressure to produce a well designed, easy-to-navigate mobile app, there's no time to reinvent the wheel. This concise book provides a handy reference to 70 mobile app design patterns, illustrated by more than 400 screenshots from current iOS, Android, BlackBerry, WebOS, Windows Mobile, and Symbian apps. User experience professional Theresa Neil (Designing Web Interfaces) walks you through design patterns in 10 separate categories, including anti-patterns. Whether you're designing a simple iPhone application or one that's meant to work for every popular mobile OS on the mark

  6. Security patterns in practice designing secure architectures using software patterns

    CERN Document Server

    Fernandez-Buglioni, Eduardo

    2013-01-01

    Learn to combine security theory and code to produce secure systems Security is clearly a crucial issue to consider during the design and implementation of any distributed software architecture. Security patterns are increasingly being used by developers who take security into serious consideration from the creation of their work. Written by the authority on security patterns, this unique book examines the structure and purpose of security patterns, illustrating their use with the help of detailed implementation advice, numerous code samples, and descriptions in UML. Provides

  7. Pattern Classification in Kampo Medicine

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Yakubo

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Pattern classification is very unique in traditional medicine. Kampo medical patterns have transformed over time during Japan’s history. In the 17th to 18th centuries, Japanese doctors advocated elimination of the Ming medical theory and followed the basic concepts put forth by Shang Han Lun and Jin Gui Yao Lue in the later Han dynasty (25–220 AD. The physician Todo Yoshimasu (1702–1773 emphasized that an appropriate treatment could be administered if a set of patterns could be identified. This principle is still referred to as “matching of pattern and formula” and is the basic concept underlying Kampo medicine today. In 1868, the Meiji restoration occurred, and the new government changed its policies to follow that of the European countries, adopting only Western medicine. Physicians trained in Western medicine played an important role in the revival of Kampo medicine, modernizing Kampo patterns to avoid confusion with Western biomedical terminology. In order to understand the Japanese version of traditional disorders and patterns, background information on the history of Kampo and its role in the current health care system in Japan is important. In this paper we overviewed the formation of Kampo patterns.

  8. Hand aperture patterns in prehension.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bongers, Raoul M; Zaal, Frank T J M; Jeannerod, Marc

    2012-06-01

    Although variations in the standard prehensile pattern can be found in the literature, these alternative patterns have never been studied systematically. This was the goal of the current paper. Ten participants picked up objects with a pincer grip. Objects (3, 5, or 7cm in diameter) were placed at 30, 60, 90, or 120cm from the hands' starting location. Usually the hand was opened gradually to a maximum immediately followed by hand closing, called the standard hand opening pattern. In the alternative opening patterns the hand opening was bumpy, or the hand aperture stayed at a plateau before closing started. Two participants in particular delayed the start of grasping with respect to start of reaching, with the delay time increasing with object distance. For larger object distances and smaller object sizes, the bumpy and plateau hand opening patterns were used more often. We tentatively concluded that the alternative hand opening patterns extended the hand opening phase, to arrive at the appropriate hand aperture at the appropriate time to close the hand for grasping the object. Variations in hand opening patterns deserve attention because this might lead to new insights into the coordination of reaching and grasping. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  9. Imaging patterns in elastofibroma dorsi

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Battaglia, M.; Vanel, D.; Pollastri, P.; Balladelli, A.; Alberghini, M.; Staals, E.L.; Monti, C.; Galletti, S.

    2009-01-01

    Introduction: Elastofibroma dorsi is a rare pseudotumor of the soft tissues. Its clinico-radiologic characteristics lead to a correct diagnosis. Material and methods: We followed 43 patients with elastofibroma dorsi with a confirmed histological diagnosis or on the basis of typical imaging pattern (ultrasound, CT, MR) confirmed by evolution. Results: Elastofibroma is prevalent in females, its onset occurs around 60 years of age and is most frequently localized in the deep subscapular region (93%), bilateral in 54% of cases. In 7% it was found in an atypical isolated suprascapular region, in 7% it was synchronous to that in the subscapular region. Four ultrasound patterns were detected: Type I (54%) inhomogeneous fasciculated, Type II (22%) inhomogeneous aspecific, Type III (15%) hyperechogeneous, Type IV (9%) hypoechogeneous. Three patterns were detected at CT and MR: Type A (84%) inhomogeneous fasciculated corresponding to Types I and III and partially to Type II ultrasound pattern, Type B (8%) inhomogeneous aspecific corresponding to Type II ultrasound pattern; Type C (8%) homogeneous isodense or isointense to the muscle corresponding to Type IV ultrasound pattern. Conclusion: A solid, slow-growing lesion, in the deep periscapular region in females aged between 50 and 60 years, with a typical fasciculated pattern is pathognomonic of elastofibroma dorsi and bilateral location convalidates diagnosis. Ultrasound is sufficient to orientate diagnosis. CT and/or MR are reserved only for non-fasciculated ultrasound patterns, when site is atypical or in candidates for surgery. Biopsy is reserved only in cases where integrated imaging shows a non-fasciculated pattern to differentiate it from other malignant lesions.

  10. Imaging patterns in elastofibroma dorsi

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Battaglia, M. [Diagnostic Ultrasound, Istituto Ortopedico Rizzoli, Via Pupilli 1, 40136 Bologna (Italy)], E-mail: milva.battaglia@ior.it; Vanel, D. [Bone Tumor Center, Istituto Ortopedico Rizzoli, Bologna (Italy); Pollastri, P. [Diagnostic Ultrasound, Istituto Ortopedico Rizzoli, Via Pupilli 1, 40136 Bologna (Italy); Balladelli, A. [Laboratory of Oncologic Research, Istituto Ortopedico Rizzoli, Bologna (Italy); Alberghini, M. [Surgical Pathology, Istituto Ortopedico Rizzoli, Bologna (Italy); Staals, E.L. [5th Orthopaedic Division, Istituto Ortopedico Rizzoli, Bologna (Italy); Monti, C. [Radiology Department ' Casa Cura Madre Fortunata Toniolo' , Bologna (Italy); Galletti, S. [Diagnostic Ultrasound, Istituto Ortopedico Rizzoli, Via Pupilli 1, 40136 Bologna (Italy)

    2009-10-15

    Introduction: Elastofibroma dorsi is a rare pseudotumor of the soft tissues. Its clinico-radiologic characteristics lead to a correct diagnosis. Material and methods: We followed 43 patients with elastofibroma dorsi with a confirmed histological diagnosis or on the basis of typical imaging pattern (ultrasound, CT, MR) confirmed by evolution. Results: Elastofibroma is prevalent in females, its onset occurs around 60 years of age and is most frequently localized in the deep subscapular region (93%), bilateral in 54% of cases. In 7% it was found in an atypical isolated suprascapular region, in 7% it was synchronous to that in the subscapular region. Four ultrasound patterns were detected: Type I (54%) inhomogeneous fasciculated, Type II (22%) inhomogeneous aspecific, Type III (15%) hyperechogeneous, Type IV (9%) hypoechogeneous. Three patterns were detected at CT and MR: Type A (84%) inhomogeneous fasciculated corresponding to Types I and III and partially to Type II ultrasound pattern, Type B (8%) inhomogeneous aspecific corresponding to Type II ultrasound pattern; Type C (8%) homogeneous isodense or isointense to the muscle corresponding to Type IV ultrasound pattern. Conclusion: A solid, slow-growing lesion, in the deep periscapular region in females aged between 50 and 60 years, with a typical fasciculated pattern is pathognomonic of elastofibroma dorsi and bilateral location convalidates diagnosis. Ultrasound is sufficient to orientate diagnosis. CT and/or MR are reserved only for non-fasciculated ultrasound patterns, when site is atypical or in candidates for surgery. Biopsy is reserved only in cases where integrated imaging shows a non-fasciculated pattern to differentiate it from other malignant lesions.

  11. The convection patterns in microemulsions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Korneta, W.; Lopez Quintela, M.A.; Fernandez Novoa, A.

    1991-07-01

    The Rayleigh-Benard convection in the microemulsion consisting of water (7.5%), cyclohexan (oil-61.7%) and diethylenglycolmonobutylether (surfactant-30.8%) is studied from the onset of convection to the phase separation. The five classes of convection patterns are observed and recorded on the video: localized travelling waves, travelling waves, travelling waves and localized steady rolls, steady rolls and steady polygons. The Fourier transforms and histograms of these patterns are presented. The origin of any pattern is discussed. The intermittent behaviour close to the phase separation was observed. Possible applications of the obtained results are suggested. (author). 6 refs, 4 figs

  12. Participation patterns in adult education

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Desjardins, Richard; Rubenson, Kjell

    2013-01-01

    This article focuses on evidence regarding cross-national patterns of participation in adult education and an interpretation of these patterns from an institutional and public policy perspective. The interpretation follows from the perspective that sustaining high and widely distributed levels...... problems that otherwise lead to underinvestment in skills and/or inequity in the distribution of access to education and training and hence skills. Hence, it is argued that institutional contexts and public policy measures condition participation patterns in adult education, and are thus worthwhile...

  13. Pattern recognition and string matching

    CERN Document Server

    Cheng, Xiuzhen

    2002-01-01

    The research and development of pattern recognition have proven to be of importance in science, technology, and human activity. Many useful concepts and tools from different disciplines have been employed in pattern recognition. Among them is string matching, which receives much theoretical and practical attention. String matching is also an important topic in combinatorial optimization. This book is devoted to recent advances in pattern recognition and string matching. It consists of twenty eight chapters written by different authors, addressing a broad range of topics such as those from classifica­ tion, matching, mining, feature selection, and applications. Each chapter is self-contained, and presents either novel methodological approaches or applications of existing theories and techniques. The aim, intent, and motivation for publishing this book is to pro­ vide a reference tool for the increasing number of readers who depend upon pattern recognition or string matching in some way. This includes student...

  14. A pattern theory of self

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shaun eGallagher

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available I argue for a pattern theory of self as a useful way to organize an interdisciplinary approach to discussions of what constitutes a self. According to the pattern theory, a self is constituted by a number of characteristic features or aspects that may include minimal embodied, minimal experiential, affective, intersubjective, psychological/cognitive, narrative, extended and situated aspects. A pattern theory of self helps to clarify various interpretations of self as compatible or commensurable instead of thinking them in opposition, and it helps to show how various aspects of self may be related across certain dimensions. I also suggest that a pattern theory of self can help to adjudicate (or at least map the differences between the idea that the self correlates to self-referential processing in the cortical midline structures of the brain and other narrower or wider conceptions of self.

  15. A pattern theory of self.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gallagher, Shaun

    2013-01-01

    I argue for a pattern theory of self as a useful way to organize an interdisciplinary approach to discussions of what constitutes a self. According to the pattern theory, a self is constituted by a number of characteristic features or aspects that may include minimal embodied, minimal experiential, affective, intersubjective, psychological/cognitive, narrative, extended, and situated aspects. A pattern theory of self helps to clarify various interpretations of self as compatible or commensurable instead of thinking them in opposition, and it helps to show how various aspects of self may be related across certain dimensions. I also suggest that a pattern theory of self can help to adjudicate (or at least map the differences) between the idea that the self correlates to self-referential processing in the cortical midline structures of the brain and other narrower or wider conceptions of self.

  16. Ecoscapes: Geographical Patternings of Relations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aimar Ventsel

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Book review of the publication Ecoscapes: Geographical Patternings of Relations. Edited by Gary Backhaus and John Murungi. Lanham, Boulder, New York, Toronto, Oxford, Lexington Books, 2006, xxxiii+241 pp.

  17. Ecoscapes: Geographical Patternings of Relations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aimar Ventsel

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Book review of the publication Ecoscapes: Geographical Patternings of Relations. Edited by Gary Backhaus and John Murungi. Lanham, Boulder, New York, Toronto, Oxford, Lexington Books, 2006, xxxiii+241 pp.

  18. County business patterns, 1996 : Nevada

    Science.gov (United States)

    1998-11-01

    County Business Patterns is an annual series that : provides subnational economic data by industry. The series : is useful for studying the economic activity of small areas; : analyzing economic changes over time; and as a benchmark : for statistical...

  19. County business patterns, 1997 : Wisconsin

    Science.gov (United States)

    1999-09-01

    County Business Patterns is an annual series that provides : subnational economic data by industry. The series is : useful for studying the economic activity of small areas; : analyzing economic changes over time; and as a benchmark : for statistical...

  20. County business patterns, 1997 : Arizona

    Science.gov (United States)

    1999-09-01

    County Business Patterns is an annual series that provides : subnational economic data by industry. The series is : useful for studying the economic activity of small areas; : analyzing economic changes over time; and as a benchmark : for statistical...

  1. County business patterns, 1997 : Wyoming

    Science.gov (United States)

    1999-09-01

    County Business Patterns is an annual series that provides : subnational economic data by industry. The series is : useful for studying the economic activity of small areas; : analyzing economic changes over time; and as a benchmark : for statistical...

  2. County business patterns, 1997 : Minnesota

    Science.gov (United States)

    1999-09-01

    County Business Patterns is an annual series that provides : subnational economic data by industry. The series is : useful for studying the economic activity of small areas; : analyzing economic changes over time; and as a benchmark : for statistical...

  3. County business patterns, 1996 : Colorado

    Science.gov (United States)

    1998-11-01

    County Business Patterns is an annual series that : provides subnational economic data by industry. The series : is useful for studying the economic activity of small areas; : analyzing economic changes over time; and as a benchmark : for statistical...

  4. County business patterns, 1996 : Montana

    Science.gov (United States)

    1998-11-01

    County Business Patterns is an annual series that : provides subnational economic data by industry. The series : is useful for studying the economic activity of small areas; : analyzing economic changes over time; and as a benchmark : for statistical...

  5. County business patterns, 1996 : Nebraska

    Science.gov (United States)

    1998-11-01

    County Business Patterns is an annual series that : provides subnational economic data by industry. The series : is useful for studying the economic activity of small areas; : analyzing economic changes over time; and as a benchmark : for statistical...

  6. County business patterns, 1996 : Kentucky

    Science.gov (United States)

    1998-11-01

    County Business Patterns is an annual series that : provides subnational economic data by industry. The series : is useful for studying the economic activity of small areas; : analyzing economic changes over time; and as a benchmark : for statistical...

  7. County business patterns, 1996 : Idaho

    Science.gov (United States)

    1998-11-01

    County Business Patterns is an annual series that : provides subnational economic data by industry. The series : is useful for studying the economic activity of small areas; : analyzing economic changes over time; and as a benchmark : for statistical...

  8. County business patterns, 1997 : Alabama

    Science.gov (United States)

    1999-09-01

    County Business Patterns is an annual series that provides : subnational economic data by industry. The series is : useful for studying the economic activity of small areas; : analyzing economic changes over time; and as a benchmark : for statistical...

  9. County business patterns, 1997 : Maryland

    Science.gov (United States)

    1999-09-01

    County Business Patterns is an annual series that provides : subnational economic data by industry. The series is : useful for studying the economic activity of small areas; : analyzing economic changes over time; and as a benchmark : for statistical...

  10. County business patterns, 1997 : Maine

    Science.gov (United States)

    1999-09-01

    County Business Patterns is an annual series that provides : subnational economic data by industry. The series is : useful for studying the economic activity of small areas; : analyzing economic changes over time; and as a benchmark : for statistical...

  11. County business patterns, 1996 : Utah

    Science.gov (United States)

    1998-11-01

    County Business Patterns is an annual series that : provides subnational economic data by industry. The series : is useful for studying the economic activity of small areas; : analyzing economic changes over time; and as a benchmark : for statistical...

  12. County business patterns, 1996 : Oklahoma

    Science.gov (United States)

    1998-11-01

    County Business Patterns is an annual series that : provides subnational economic data by industry. The series : is useful for studying the economic activity of small areas; : analyzing economic changes over time; and as a benchmark : for statistical...

  13. County business patterns, 1996 : Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    1998-11-01

    County Business Patterns is an annual series that : provides subnational economic data by industry. The series : is useful for studying the economic activity of small areas; : analyzing economic changes over time; and as a benchmark : for statistical...

  14. County business patterns, 1997 : Kansas

    Science.gov (United States)

    1999-09-01

    County Business Patterns is an annual series that provides : subnational economic data by industry. The series is : useful for studying the economic activity of small areas; : analyzing economic changes over time; and as a benchmark : for statistical...

  15. County business patterns, 1997 : Florida

    Science.gov (United States)

    1999-09-01

    County Business Patterns is an annual series that provides : subnational economic data by industry. The series is : useful for studying the economic activity of small areas; : analyzing economic changes over time; and as a benchmark : for statistical...

  16. County business patterns, 1997 : Oklahoma

    Science.gov (United States)

    1999-09-01

    County Business Patterns is an annual series that provides : subnational economic data by industry. The series is : useful for studying the economic activity of small areas; : analyzing economic changes over time; and as a benchmark : for statistical...

  17. County business patterns, 1997 : Michigan

    Science.gov (United States)

    1999-09-01

    County Business Patterns is an annual series that provides : subnational economic data by industry. The series is : useful for studying the economic activity of small areas; : analyzing economic changes over time; and as a benchmark : for statistical...

  18. County business patterns, 1997 : Tennessee

    Science.gov (United States)

    1999-09-01

    County Business Patterns is an annual series that provides : subnational economic data by industry. The series is : useful for studying the economic activity of small areas; : analyzing economic changes over time; and as a benchmark : for statistical...

  19. County business patterns, 1997 : Kentucky

    Science.gov (United States)

    1999-09-01

    County Business Patterns is an annual series that provides : subnational economic data by industry. The series is : useful for studying the economic activity of small areas; : analyzing economic changes over time; and as a benchmark : for statistical...

  20. County business patterns, 1996 : Louisiana

    Science.gov (United States)

    1998-11-01

    County Business Patterns is an annual series that : provides subnational economic data by industry. The series : is useful for studying the economic activity of small areas; : analyzing economic changes over time; and as a benchmark : for statistical...

  1. County business patterns, 1997 : Texas

    Science.gov (United States)

    1999-09-01

    County Business Patterns is an annual series that provides : subnational economic data by industry. The series is : useful for studying the economic activity of small areas; : analyzing economic changes over time; and as a benchmark : for statistical...

  2. County business patterns, 1997 : Virginia

    Science.gov (United States)

    1999-09-01

    County Business Patterns is an annual series that provides : subnational economic data by industry. The series is : useful for studying the economic activity of small areas; : analyzing economic changes over time; and as a benchmark : for statistical...

  3. County business patterns, 1996 : Delaware

    Science.gov (United States)

    1998-11-01

    County Business Patterns is an annual series that : provides subnational economic data by industry. The series : is useful for studying the economic activity of small areas; : analyzing economic changes over time; and as a benchmark : for statistical...

  4. County business patterns, 1997 : Idaho

    Science.gov (United States)

    1999-09-01

    County Business Patterns is an annual series that provides : subnational economic data by industry. The series is : useful for studying the economic activity of small areas; : analyzing economic changes over time; and as a benchmark : for statistical...

  5. County business patterns, 1997 : Nevada

    Science.gov (United States)

    1999-09-01

    County Business Patterns is an annual series that provides : subnational economic data by industry. The series is : useful for studying the economic activity of small areas; : analyzing economic changes over time; and as a benchmark : for statistical...

  6. County business patterns, 1996 : Wisconsin

    Science.gov (United States)

    1998-11-01

    County Business Patterns is an annual series that : provides subnational economic data by industry. The series : is useful for studying the economic activity of small areas; : analyzing economic changes over time; and as a benchmark : for statistical...

  7. County business patterns, 1996 : Arkansas

    Science.gov (United States)

    1998-11-01

    County Business Patterns is an annual series that : provides subnational economic data by industry. The series : is useful for studying the economic activity of small areas; : analyzing economic changes over time; and as a benchmark : for statistical...

  8. County business patterns, 1996 : Florida

    Science.gov (United States)

    1998-11-01

    County Business Patterns is an annual series that : provides subnational economic data by industry. The series : is useful for studying the economic activity of small areas; : analyzing economic changes over time; and as a benchmark : for statistical...

  9. County business patterns, 1997 : Mississippi

    Science.gov (United States)

    1999-09-01

    County Business Patterns is an annual series that provides : subnational economic data by industry. The series is : useful for studying the economic activity of small areas; : analyzing economic changes over time; and as a benchmark : for statistical...

  10. County business patterns, 1996 : Missouri

    Science.gov (United States)

    1998-11-01

    County Business Patterns is an annual series that : provides subnational economic data by industry. The series : is useful for studying the economic activity of small areas; : analyzing economic changes over time; and as a benchmark : for statistical...

  11. County business patterns, 1996 : Maryland

    Science.gov (United States)

    1998-11-01

    County Business Patterns is an annual series that : provides subnational economic data by industry. The series : is useful for studying the economic activity of small areas; : analyzing economic changes over time; and as a benchmark : for statistical...

  12. County business patterns, 1997 : Hawaii

    Science.gov (United States)

    1999-09-01

    County Business Patterns is an annual series that provides : subnational economic data by industry. The series is : useful for studying the economic activity of small areas; : analyzing economic changes over time; and as a benchmark : for statistical...

  13. County business patterns, 1996 : Ohio

    Science.gov (United States)

    1998-11-01

    County Business Patterns is an annual series that : provides subnational economic data by industry. The series : is useful for studying the economic activity of small areas; : analyzing economic changes over time; and as a benchmark : for statistical...

  14. County business patterns, 1996 : Alabama

    Science.gov (United States)

    1998-11-01

    County Business Patterns is an annual series that : provides subnational economic data by industry. The series : is useful for studying the economic activity of small areas; : analyzing economic changes over time; and as a benchmark : for statistical...

  15. County business patterns, 1997 : Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    1999-09-01

    County Business Patterns is an annual series that provides : subnational economic data by industry. The series is : useful for studying the economic activity of small areas; : analyzing economic changes over time; and as a benchmark : for statistical...

  16. County business patterns, 1996 : Iowa

    Science.gov (United States)

    1998-11-01

    County Business Patterns is an annual series that : provides subnational economic data by industry. The series : is useful for studying the economic activity of small areas; : analyzing economic changes over time; and as a benchmark : for statistical...

  17. County business patterns, 1996 : Georgia

    Science.gov (United States)

    1998-11-01

    County Business Patterns is an annual series that : provides subnational economic data by industry. The series : is useful for studying the economic activity of small areas; : analyzing economic changes over time; and as a benchmark : for statistical...

  18. County business patterns, 1996 : Michigan

    Science.gov (United States)

    1998-11-01

    County Business Patterns is an annual series that : provides subnational economic data by industry. The series : is useful for studying the economic activity of small areas; : analyzing economic changes over time; and as a benchmark : for statistical...

  19. County business patterns, 1996 : Texas

    Science.gov (United States)

    1998-11-01

    County Business Patterns is an annual series that : provides subnational economic data by industry. The series : is useful for studying the economic activity of small areas; : analyzing economic changes over time; and as a benchmark : for statistical...

  20. County business patterns, 1997 : Nebraska

    Science.gov (United States)

    1999-09-01

    County Business Patterns is an annual series that provides : subnational economic data by industry. The series is : useful for studying the economic activity of small areas; : analyzing economic changes over time; and as a benchmark : for statistical...

  1. County business patterns, 1997 : Massachusetts

    Science.gov (United States)

    1999-09-01

    County Business Patterns is an annual series that provides : subnational economic data by industry. The series is : useful for studying the economic activity of small areas; : analyzing economic changes over time; and as a benchmark : for statistical...

  2. County business patterns, 1997 : Indiana

    Science.gov (United States)

    1999-09-01

    County Business Patterns is an annual series that provides : subnational economic data by industry. The series is : useful for studying the economic activity of small areas; : analyzing economic changes over time; and as a benchmark : for statistical...

  3. County business patterns, 1996 : Pennsylvania

    Science.gov (United States)

    1998-11-01

    County Business Patterns is an annual series that : provides subnational economic data by industry. The series : is useful for studying the economic activity of small areas; : analyzing economic changes over time; and as a benchmark : for statistical...

  4. County business patterns, 1997 : Arkansas

    Science.gov (United States)

    1999-09-01

    County Business Patterns is an annual series that provides : subnational economic data by industry. The series is : useful for studying the economic activity of small areas; : analyzing economic changes over time; and as a benchmark : for statistical...

  5. County business patterns, 1997 : Colorado

    Science.gov (United States)

    1999-09-01

    County Business Patterns is an annual series that provides : subnational economic data by industry. The series is : useful for studying the economic activity of small areas; : analyzing economic changes over time; and as a benchmark : for statistical...

  6. County business patterns, 1996 : Arizona

    Science.gov (United States)

    1998-11-01

    County Business Patterns is an annual series that : provides subnational economic data by industry. The series : is useful for studying the economic activity of small areas; : analyzing economic changes over time; and as a benchmark : for statistical...

  7. County business patterns, 1997 : Oregon

    Science.gov (United States)

    1999-09-01

    County Business Patterns is an annual series that provides : subnational economic data by industry. The series is : useful for studying the economic activity of small areas; : analyzing economic changes over time; and as a benchmark : for statistical...

  8. County business patterns, 1997 : Georgia

    Science.gov (United States)

    1999-09-01

    County Business Patterns is an annual series that provides : subnational economic data by industry. The series is : useful for studying the economic activity of small areas; : analyzing economic changes over time; and as a benchmark : for statistical...

  9. County business patterns, 1997 : Missouri

    Science.gov (United States)

    1999-09-01

    County Business Patterns is an annual series that provides : subnational economic data by industry. The series is : useful for studying the economic activity of small areas; : analyzing economic changes over time; and as a benchmark : for statistical...

  10. County business patterns, 1997 : Illinois

    Science.gov (United States)

    1999-09-01

    County Business Patterns is an annual series that provides : subnational economic data by industry. The series is : useful for studying the economic activity of small areas; : analyzing economic changes over time; and as a benchmark : for statistical...

  11. County business patterns, 1997 : Utah

    Science.gov (United States)

    1999-09-01

    County Business Patterns is an annual series that provides : subnational economic data by industry. The series is : useful for studying the economic activity of small areas; : analyzing economic changes over time; and as a benchmark : for statistical...

  12. County business patterns, 1996 : Kansas

    Science.gov (United States)

    1998-11-01

    County Business Patterns is an annual series that : provides subnational economic data by industry. The series : is useful for studying the economic activity of small areas; : analyzing economic changes over time; and as a benchmark : for statistical...

  13. County business patterns, 1996 : Maine

    Science.gov (United States)

    1998-11-01

    County Business Patterns is an annual series that : provides subnational economic data by industry. The series : is useful for studying the economic activity of small areas; : analyzing economic changes over time; and as a benchmark : for statistical...

  14. County business patterns, 1997 : Pennsylvania

    Science.gov (United States)

    1999-09-01

    County Business Patterns is an annual series that provides : subnational economic data by industry. The series is : useful for studying the economic activity of small areas; : analyzing economic changes over time; and as a benchmark : for statistical...

  15. County business patterns, 1996 : Tennessee

    Science.gov (United States)

    1998-11-01

    County Business Patterns is an annual series that : provides subnational economic data by industry. The series : is useful for studying the economic activity of small areas; : analyzing economic changes over time; and as a benchmark : for statistical...

  16. County business patterns, 1997 : Ohio

    Science.gov (United States)

    1999-09-01

    County Business Patterns is an annual series that provides : subnational economic data by industry. The series is : useful for studying the economic activity of small areas; : analyzing economic changes over time; and as a benchmark : for statistical...

  17. County business patterns, 1996 : Vermont

    Science.gov (United States)

    1998-11-01

    County Business Patterns is an annual series that : provides subnational economic data by industry. The series : is useful for studying the economic activity of small areas; : analyzing economic changes over time; and as a benchmark : for statistical...

  18. County business patterns, 1996 : Wyoming

    Science.gov (United States)

    1998-11-01

    County Business Patterns is an annual series that : provides subnational economic data by industry. The series : is useful for studying the economic activity of small areas; : analyzing economic changes over time; and as a benchmark : for statistical...

  19. County business patterns, 1996 : Illinois

    Science.gov (United States)

    1998-11-01

    County Business Patterns is an annual series that : provides subnational economic data by industry. The series : is useful for studying the economic activity of small areas; : analyzing economic changes over time; and as a benchmark : for statistical...

  20. County business patterns, 1996 : Virginia

    Science.gov (United States)

    1998-11-01

    County Business Patterns is an annual series that : provides subnational economic data by industry. The series : is useful for studying the economic activity of small areas; : analyzing economic changes over time; and as a benchmark : for statistical...

  1. County business patterns, 1997 : Iowa

    Science.gov (United States)

    1999-09-01

    County Business Patterns is an annual series that provides : subnational economic data by industry. The series is : useful for studying the economic activity of small areas; : analyzing economic changes over time; and as a benchmark : for statistical...

  2. County business patterns, 1997 : Connecticut

    Science.gov (United States)

    1999-09-01

    County Business Patterns is an annual series that provides : subnational economic data by industry. The series is : useful for studying the economic activity of small areas; : analyzing economic changes over time; and as a benchmark : for statistical...

  3. County business patterns, 1996 : Hawaii

    Science.gov (United States)

    1998-11-01

    County Business Patterns is an annual series that : provides subnational economic data by industry. The series : is useful for studying the economic activity of small areas; : analyzing economic changes over time; and as a benchmark : for statistical...

  4. County business patterns, 1997 : Washington

    Science.gov (United States)

    1999-09-01

    County Business Patterns is an annual series that provides : subnational economic data by industry. The series is : useful for studying the economic activity of small areas; : analyzing economic changes over time; and as a benchmark : for statistical...

  5. County business patterns, 1997 : Vermont

    Science.gov (United States)

    1999-09-01

    County Business Patterns is an annual series that provides : subnational economic data by industry. The series is : useful for studying the economic activity of small areas; : analyzing economic changes over time; and as a benchmark : for statistical...

  6. County business patterns, 1996 : Oregon

    Science.gov (United States)

    1998-11-01

    County Business Patterns is an annual series that : provides subnational economic data by industry. The series : is useful for studying the economic activity of small areas; : analyzing economic changes over time; and as a benchmark : for statistical...

  7. County business patterns, 1996 : Minnesota

    Science.gov (United States)

    1998-11-01

    County Business Patterns is an annual series that : provides subnational economic data by industry. The series : is useful for studying the economic activity of small areas; : analyzing economic changes over time; and as a benchmark : for statistical...

  8. County business patterns, 1996 : California

    Science.gov (United States)

    1998-11-01

    County Business Patterns is an annual series that : provides subnational economic data by industry. The series : is useful for studying the economic activity of small areas; : analyzing economic changes over time; and as a benchmark : for statistical...

  9. County business patterns, 1996 : Indiana

    Science.gov (United States)

    1998-11-01

    County Business Patterns is an annual series that : provides subnational economic data by industry. The series : is useful for studying the economic activity of small areas; : analyzing economic changes over time; and as a benchmark : for statistical...

  10. County business patterns, 1997 : Delaware

    Science.gov (United States)

    1999-09-01

    County Business Patterns is an annual series that provides : subnational economic data by industry. The series is : useful for studying the economic activity of small areas; : analyzing economic changes over time; and as a benchmark : for statistical...

  11. County business patterns, 1997 : Montana

    Science.gov (United States)

    1999-09-01

    County Business Patterns is an annual series that provides : subnational economic data by industry. The series is : useful for studying the economic activity of small areas; : analyzing economic changes over time; and as a benchmark : for statistical...

  12. Anastomosing Rivers are Disequilibrium Patterns

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lavooi, E.; Haas, de T.; Kleinhans, M.G.; Makaske, B.; Smith, D.G.

    2010-01-01

    Anastomosing rivers have multiple interconnected channels that enclose floodbasins. Various theories have been proposed to explain this pattern, including an increased discharge conveyance and sediment transport capacity of multiple channels, or, alternatively, a tendency to avulse due to upstream

  13. Visualizing Data Patterns with Micromaps

    CERN Document Server

    Carr, Daniel B

    2010-01-01

    After more than 15 years of development drawing on research in cognitive psychology, statistical graphics, computer science, and cartography, micromap designs are becoming part of mainstream statistical visualizations. Bringing together the research of two leaders in this field, "Visualizing Data Patterns with Micromaps" presents the many design variations and applications of micromaps, which link statistical information to an organized set of small maps. This full-color book helps readers simultaneously explore the statistical and geographic patterns in their data. After illustratin

  14. Capacitance enhancement via electrode patterning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ho, Tuan A.; Striolo, Alberto

    2013-01-01

    The necessity of increasing the energy density in electric double layer capacitors to meet current demand is fueling fundamental and applied research alike. We report here molecular dynamics simulation results for aqueous electrolytes near model electrodes. Particular focus is on the effect of electrode patterning on the structure of interfacial electrolytes, and on the potential drop between the solid electrodes and the bulk electrolytes. The latter is estimated by numerically integrating the Poisson equation using the charge densities due to water and ions accumulated near the interface as input. We considered uniform and patterned electrodes, both positively and negatively charged. The uniformly charged electrodes are modeled as graphite. The patterned ones are obtained by removing carbon atoms from the top-most graphene layer, yielding nanoscopic squares and stripes patterns. For simplicity, the patterned electrodes are effectively simulated as insulators (the charge remains localized on the top-most layer of carbon atoms). Our simulations show that the patterns alter the structure of water and the accumulation of ions at the liquid-solid interfaces. Using aqueous NaCl solutions, we found that while the capacitance calculated for three positively charged electrodes did not change much, that calculated for the negatively charged electrodes significantly increased upon patterning. We find that both water structure and orientation, as well as ion accumulation affect the capacitance. As electrode patterning affects differently water structure and ion accumulation, it might be possible to observe ion-specific effects. These results could be useful for advancing our understanding of electric double layer capacitors, capacitive desalination processes, as well as of fundamental interfacial electrolytes properties

  15. Computer aided fringe pattern analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sciammarella, Cesar A.

    The paper reviews the basic laws of fringe pattern interpretation. The different techniques that are currently utilized are presented using a common frame of reference stressing the fact that these techniques are different variations of the same basic principle. Digital and analog techniques are discussed. Currently available hardware is presented and the relationships between hardware and the operations of pattern fringe processing are pointed out. Examples are given to illustrate the ideas discussed in the paper.

  16. Quantum computing for pattern classification

    OpenAIRE

    Schuld, Maria; Sinayskiy, Ilya; Petruccione, Francesco

    2014-01-01

    It is well known that for certain tasks, quantum computing outperforms classical computing. A growing number of contributions try to use this advantage in order to improve or extend classical machine learning algorithms by methods of quantum information theory. This paper gives a brief introduction into quantum machine learning using the example of pattern classification. We introduce a quantum pattern classification algorithm that draws on Trugenberger's proposal for measuring the Hamming di...

  17. Plasma etching of patterned tungsten

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Franssila, S.

    1993-01-01

    Plasma etching of tungsten is discussed from the viewpoint of thin film structure and integrated circuit process engineering. The emphasis is on patterned tungsten etching for silicon device and X-ray mask fabrication. After introducing tungsten etch chemistries and mechanisms, microstructural aspects of tungsten films (crystal structure, grain size, film density, defects, impurities) in relation to etching are discussed. Approaches to etch process optimization are presented, and the current state-of-the-art of patterned tungsten etching is reviewed. (orig.)

  18. Patterns for Effectively Documenting Frameworks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aguiar, Ademar; David, Gabriel

    Good design and implementation are necessary but not sufficient pre-requisites for successfully reusing object-oriented frameworks. Although not always recognized, good documentation is crucial for effective framework reuse, and often hard, costly, and tiresome, coming with many issues, especially when we are not aware of the key problems and respective ways of addressing them. Based on existing literature, case studies and lessons learned, the authors have been mining proven solutions to recurrent problems of documenting object-oriented frameworks, and writing them in pattern form, as patterns are a very effective way of communicating expertise and best practices. This paper presents a small set of patterns addressing problems related to the framework documentation itself, here seen as an autonomous and tangible product independent of the process used to create it. The patterns aim at helping non-experts on cost-effectively documenting object-oriented frameworks. In concrete, these patterns provide guidance on choosing the kinds of documents to produce, how to relate them, and which contents to include. Although the focus is more on the documents themselves, rather than on the process and tools to produce them, some guidelines are also presented in the paper to help on applying the patterns to a specific framework.

  19. Faraday instability on patterned surfaces

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, Jie; Rubinstein, Gregory; Jacobi, Ian; Stone, Howard

    2013-11-01

    We show how micro-scale surface patterning can be used to control the onset of the Faraday instability in thin liquid films. It is well known that when a liquid film on a planar substrate is subject to sufficient vibrational accelerations, the free surface destabilizes, exhibiting a family of non-linear standing waves. This instability remains a canonical problem in the study of spontaneous pattern formation, but also has practical uses. For example, the surface waves induced by the Faraday instability have been studied as a means of enhanced damping for mechanical vibrations (Genevaux et al. 2009). Also the streaming within the unstable layer has been used as a method for distributing heterogeneous cell cultures on growth medium (Takagi et al. 2002). In each of these applications, the roughness of the substrate significantly affects the unstable flow field. We consider the effect of patterned substrates on the onset and behavior of the Faraday instability over a range of pattern geometries and feature heights where the liquid layer is thicker than the pattern height. Also, we describe a physical model for the influence of patterned roughness on the destabilization of a liquid layer in order to improve the design of practical systems which exploit the Faraday instability.

  20. Career patterns of healthcare executives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fahey, D F; Myrtle, R C

    2001-02-01

    This research examines the job and career changes of healthcare executives and managers working in different segments of the healthcare industry in the western United States. The results suggest that the job and career patterns in the healthcare delivery sector are undergoing significant transformation. One third of the respondents reports that at least one of their last four job changes was involuntary or unplanned. One half of those attempted to make a career change. This study identifies four different executive and management career patterns. The most common was one of multiple career changes. The second pattern was that of a single career change, followed by a 'traditional' career in which one did not seek a career change. The final pattern was characterized as a movement back and forth between two different segments of the healthcare industry. Age, gender, marital status and education were not associated with any specific career pattern. The need to achieve results early in the respondent's career had a strong influence on career patterns. This study confirms the fluidity of career movement and the changing permeability between the various segments of the healthcare industry. It also suggests that career success increasingly will require broad management experience in those different segments.

  1. Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Daily Pacific North American Index

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Pacific-North American pattern (PNA) is one of the leading teleconnection patterns in the Northern Hemisphere circulation. It is calculated as a Rotated...

  2. Generating potentially nilpotent full sign patterns

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kim, I.J.; Olesky, D.D.; Shader, B.L.; Driessche, van den P.; Holst, van der H.; Vander Meulen, K.N.

    2009-01-01

    A sign pattern is a matrix with entries in {+,-, 0}. A full sign pattern has no zero entries. The refined inertia of a matrix pattern is defined and techniques are developed for constructing potentially nilpotent full sign patterns. Such patterns are spectrally arbitrary. These techniques can also

  3. Vertebrate Embryonic Cleavage Pattern Determination.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hasley, Andrew; Chavez, Shawn; Danilchik, Michael; Wühr, Martin; Pelegri, Francisco

    2017-01-01

    The pattern of the earliest cell divisions in a vertebrate embryo lays the groundwork for later developmental events such as gastrulation, organogenesis, and overall body plan establishment. Understanding these early cleavage patterns and the mechanisms that create them is thus crucial for the study of vertebrate development. This chapter describes the early cleavage stages for species representing ray-finned fish, amphibians, birds, reptiles, mammals, and proto-vertebrate ascidians and summarizes current understanding of the mechanisms that govern these patterns. The nearly universal influence of cell shape on orientation and positioning of spindles and cleavage furrows and the mechanisms that mediate this influence are discussed. We discuss in particular models of aster and spindle centering and orientation in large embryonic blastomeres that rely on asymmetric internal pulling forces generated by the cleavage furrow for the previous cell cycle. Also explored are mechanisms that integrate cell division given the limited supply of cellular building blocks in the egg and several-fold changes of cell size during early development, as well as cytoskeletal specializations specific to early blastomeres including processes leading to blastomere cohesion. Finally, we discuss evolutionary conclusions beginning to emerge from the contemporary analysis of the phylogenetic distributions of cleavage patterns. In sum, this chapter seeks to summarize our current understanding of vertebrate early embryonic cleavage patterns and their control and evolution.

  4. An inter-comparison of six latent and sensible heat flux products over the Southern Ocean

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lejiang Yu

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available The latent heat fluxes (LHF and sensible heat fluxes (SHF over the Southern Ocean from six different data sets are inter-compared for the period 1988–2000. The six data sets include three satellite-based products, namely, the second version of the Goddard Satellite-Based Surface Turbulent Fluxes data set (GSSTF-2, the third version of the Hamburg Ocean Atmosphere Parameters and Fluxes from Satellite Data (HOAPS-3 and the Japanese Ocean Fluxes Data Sets with Use of Remote Sensing Observations (J-OFURO; two global reanalysis products, namely, the National Centers for Environmental Prediction–Department of Energy Reanalysis 2 data set (NCEP-2 and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts 40 Year Re-analysis data set (ERA-40; and the Objectively Analyzed Air–Sea Fluxes for the Global Oceans data set (OAFlux. All these products reveal a similar pattern in the averaged flux fields. The zonal mean LHF fields all exhibit a continuous increase equatorward. With an exception of HOAPS-3, the zonal mean SHF fields display a minimum value near 50°S, increasing both pole- and equatorward. The differences in the standard deviation for LHF are larger among the six data products than the differences for SHF. Over the regions where the surface fluxes are significantly influenced by the Antarctic Oscillation and the Pacific–South American teleconnection, the values and distributions of both LHF and SHF are consistent among the six products. It was found that the spatial patterns of the standard deviations and trends of LHF and SHF can be explained primarily by sea–air specific humidity and temperature differences; wind speed plays a minor role.

  5. Planktic foraminiferal responses to orbital scale oceanographic changes off the western Iberian margin over the last 900 kyr: Results from IODP site U1391

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, A. D.; Verma, K.; Jaiswal, S.; Alonso-Garcia, M.; Li, B.; Abrantes, F.

    2015-12-01

    This paper presents planktic foraminiferal assemblage records of the last 900 kyr from the SW Iberian margin (IODP Site U1391). The faunal records show the history of surface oceanographic changes on glacial/interglacial scales before and after the Mid-Brunhes Event (MBE), a period when a major shift in the climate pattern was recorded in other regions. Temporal variations in relative abundances of characteristic species/groups are used to infer changes in the latitudinal position of the polar/Arctic water (% Neogloboquadrina pachyderma sinistral and Turborotalita quinqueloba), influence of the transitional subpolar water mass (% N. pachyderma dextral), and subtropical water (% tropical/subtropical species/group). Past changes in the upwelling intensity and productivity pattern associated with seasonal trade wind strength are inferred from the abundance variations of Globigerina bulloides and G. bulloides + Globigerinita glutinata, respectively. Faunal data reveal the influence of cold water masses (polar/subpolar) at the examined site was more pronounced during glacial stages except for marine isotope stage (MIS) 14 and 16. The magnitude of the polar/subpolar water mass invading the study area was at maximum before the MBE during MIS 18, 20 and 22, resulting in a situation like the present day Arctic Front. Interglacial periods prior to the MBE were also relatively colder than those of the post-MBE. Our faunal based inferences are in agreement with the ice-rafted debris (IRD) concentration and N. pachyderma sinistral records of the subpolar North Atlantic sites. Based on faunal proxies, we recorded major and rapid changes in upwelling intensity and related productivity during glacial Terminations. Both the upwelling intensity and productivity significantly increased after the MBE, particularly during the interglacials MIS 7, 9 and 11. Our productivity record parallels the EPICA CH4 record suggesting teleconnections between trade winds induced productivity and the

  6. Patterns of Software Development Process

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sandro Javier Bolaños Castro

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available "Times New Roman","serif";mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-ansi-language:EN-US;mso-fareast-language:EN-US;mso-bidi-language:AR-SA">This article presents a set of patterns that can be found to perform best practices in software processes that are directly related to the problem of implementing the activities of the process, the roles involved, the knowledge generated and the inputs and outputs belonging to the process. In this work, a definition of the architecture is encouraged by using different recurrent configurations that strengthen the process and yield efficient results for the development of a software project. The patterns presented constitute a catalog, which serves as a vocabulary for communication among project participants [1], [2], and also can be implemented through software tools, thus facilitating patterns implementation [3]. Additionally, a tool that can be obtained under GPL (General Public license is provided for this purpose

  7. Online Access Patterns and Students

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nasir Butrous

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available The paper follows accessing patterns of five cohorts of postgraduate students enrolled in a core unit within a master of business administration (MBA program. The unit is designed to provide numerous opportunities for student participation in Discussion Boards using Blackboard technology. Discussion Boards create numerous opportunities for interaction amongst online learners to share and exchange their experiences, creating a sense of a virtual community. Relationships between accessing patterns for each week of the semester for each student are explored in relation to their performance using course statistics generated by the Blackboard technology. Close examination of the significant differences in access patterns to the course window and its components of communication, content, and student areas reveal middle of the semester (week 7 as the common critical point that differentiates high achieving students from low achieving students. Identifying critical points provides the faculty staff member an opportunity to introduce intervention strategies in order to improve the learning experience of all the students.

  8. Miliary pattern in neonatal pneumonia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Flores, J.A.M.

    1988-01-01

    We have seen 10 newborn babies who developed respiratory distress and whose chest radiographs showed a miliary nodular pattern of disease. Of these infants only 3 had blood cultures that were positive for staphylococcus aureus. Of the remaining 7, 2 had conjunctivitis from which staphylococcus aureus was cultured, 4 had negative cultures and 1 did not have a blood culture done. All patients were diagnosed as having bacterial pneumonia and appeared to respond favourably to antibiotic therapy. The pulmonary abnormalities resolved. The children were clinically well in less than 3 weeks. The author suggests that the miliary pattern is one of the radiological patterns of neonatal pneumonia possibly produced by hematogenous bacterial dissemination. (orig.)

  9. Workflow patterns the definitive guide

    CERN Document Server

    Russell, Nick; ter Hofstede, Arthur H M

    2016-01-01

    The study of business processes has emerged as a highly effective approach to coordinating an organization's complex service- and knowledge-based activities. The growing field of business process management (BPM) focuses on methods and tools for designing, enacting, and analyzing business processes. This volume offers a definitive guide to the use of patterns, which synthesize the wide range of approaches to modeling business processes. It provides a unique and comprehensive introduction to the well-known workflow patterns collection -- recurrent, generic constructs describing common business process modeling and execution scenarios, presented in the form of problem-solution dialectics. The underlying principles of the patterns approach ensure that they are independent of any specific enabling technology, representational formalism, or modeling approach, and thus broadly applicable across the business process modeling and business process technology domains. The authors, drawing on extensive research done by...

  10. Towards pattern understanding-new technologies beyond pattern recognition

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sakai, T

    1982-04-01

    The techniques employed in understanding-systems for pattern information are classified roughly under top-down and bottom-up techniques. These are outlined in the paper, and intellectual preparation for communications and information processing is briefly described. 1 ref.

  11. Spatiotemporal Wave Patterns: Information Dynamics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mikhail Rabinovich; Lev Tsimring

    2006-01-20

    Pattern formation has traditionally been studied in non-equilibrium physics from the viewpoint of describing the basic structures and their interactions. While this is still an important area of research, the emphasis in the last few years has shifted towards analysis of specific properties of patterns in various complex media. For example, diverse and unexpected phenomena occur in neuro-like media that are characterized by highly non-trivial local dynamics. We carried out an active research program on analysis of spatio-temporal patterns in various physical systems (convection, oscillating fluid layer, soap film), as well as in neuro-like media, with an emphasis on informational aspects of the dynamics. Nonlinear nonequilibrium media and their discrete analogs have a unique ability to represent, memorize, and process the information contained in spatio-temporal patterns. Recent neurophysiological experiments demonstrated a certain universality of spatio-temporal representation of information by neural ensembles. Information processing is also revealed in the spatio-temporal dynamics of cellular patterns in nonequilibrium media. It is extremely important for many applications to study the informational aspects of these dynamics, including the origins and mechanisms of information generation, propagation and storage. Some of our results are: the discovery of self-organization of periodically oscillatory patterns in chaotic heterogeneous media; the analysis of the propagation of the information along a chaotic media as function of the entropy of the signal; the analysis of wave propagation in discrete non-equilibrium media with autocatalytic properties, which simulates the calcium dynamics in cellular membranes. Based on biological experiments we suggest the mechanism by which the spatial sensory information is transferred into the spatio-temporal code in the neural media. We also found a new mechanism of self-pinning in cellular structures and the related phenomenon

  12. Dark patterns in proxemic interactions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Greenberg, Saul; Boring, Sebastian; Vermeulen, Jo

    2014-01-01

    to better facilitate seamless and natural interactions. To do so, both people and devices are tracked to determine their spatial relationships. While interest in proxemic interactions has increased over the last few years, it also has a dark side: knowledge of proxemics may (and likely will) be easily...... exploited to the detriment of the user. In this paper, we offer a critical perspective on proxemic interactions in the form of dark patterns: ways proxemic interactions can be misused. We discuss a series of these patterns and describe how they apply to these types of interactions. In addition, we identify...

  13. Separation vortices and pattern formation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Anders Peter; Bohr, Tomas; Schnipper, Teis

    2010-01-01

    In this paper examples are given of the importance of flow separation for fluid patterns at moderate Reynolds numbers—both in the stationary and in the time-dependent domain. In the case of circular hydraulic jumps, it has been shown recently that it is possible to generalise the Prandtl–Kármán–P...... results for the vortex patterns behind a flapping foil in a flowing soap film, which shows the interaction and competition between the vortices shed from the round leading edge (like the von Kármán vortex street) and those created at the sharp trailing edge....

  14. Patterns in Permutations and Words

    CERN Document Server

    Kitaev, Sergey

    2011-01-01

    There has been considerable interest recently in the subject of patterns in permutations and words, a new branch of combinatorics with its roots in the works of Rotem, Rogers, and Knuth in the 1970s. Consideration of the patterns in question has been extremely interesting from the combinatorial point of view, and it has proved to be a useful language in a variety of seemingly unrelated problems, including the theory of Kazhdan--Lusztig polynomials, singularities of Schubert varieties, interval orders, Chebyshev polynomials, models in statistical mechanics, and various sorting algorithms, inclu

  15. Turing patterns and biological explanation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Serban, Maria

    2017-01-01

    , promoting theory exploration, and acting as constitutive parts of empirically adequate explanations of naturally occurring phenomena, such as biological pattern formation. Focusing on the roles that minimal model explanations play in science motivates the adoption of a broader diachronic view of scientific......Turing patterns are a class of minimal mathematical models that have been used to discover and conceptualize certain abstract features of early biological development. This paper examines a range of these minimal models in order to articulate and elaborate a philosophical analysis...

  16. Pattern formations and oscillatory phenomena

    CERN Document Server

    Kinoshita, Shuichi

    2013-01-01

    Patterns and their formations appear throughout nature, and are studied to analyze different problems in science and make predictions across a wide range of disciplines including biology, physics, mathematics, chemistry, material science, and nanoscience. With the emergence of nanoscience and the ability for researchers and scientists to study living systems at the biological level, pattern formation research has become even more essential. This book is an accessible first of its kind guide for scientists, researchers, engineers, and students who require a general introduction to thi

  17. Type-safe pattern combinators

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rhiger, Morten

    2009-01-01

    Macros still haven't made their way into typed higher-order programming languages such as Haskell and Standard ML. Therefore, to extend the expressiveness of Haskell or Standard ML, one must express new linguistic features in terms of functions that fit within the static type systems of these lan...... of these languages. This is particularly challenging when introducing features that span across multiple types and that bind variables. We address this challenge by developing, in a step by step manner, mechanisms for encoding patterns and pattern matching in Haskell in a type-safe way....

  18. Interactive design of generic chemical patterns.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schomburg, Karen T; Wetzer, Lars; Rarey, Matthias

    2013-07-01

    Every medicinal chemist has to create chemical patterns occasionally for querying databases, applying filters or describing functional groups. However, the representations of chemical patterns have been so far limited to languages with highly complex syntax, handicapping the application of patterns. Graphic pattern editors similar to chemical editors can facilitate the work with patterns. In this article, we review the interfaces of frequently used web search engines for chemical patterns. We take a look at pattern editing concepts of standalone chemical editors and finally present a completely new, unpublished graphical approach to pattern design, the SMARTSeditor. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Sentence Level Information Patterns for Novelty Detection

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Li, Xiaoyan

    2006-01-01

    .... Given a user's information need, some information patterns in sentences such as combinations of query words, sentence lengths, named entities and phrases, and other sentence patterns, may contain...

  20. Afrikaans Syllabification Patterns

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tilla Fick

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available In contrast to English, automatic hyphenation by computer of Afrikaans words is a problem that still needs to be addressed, since errors are still often encountered in printed text. An initial step in this task is the ability to automatically syllabify words. Since new words are created continuously by joining words, it is necessary to develop an “intelligent” technique for syllabification. As a first phase of the research, we consider only the orthographic information of words, and disregard both syntactic and morphological information. This approach allows us to use machine-learning techniques such as artificial neural networks and decision trees that are known for their pattern recognition abilities. Both these techniques are trained with isolated patterns consisting of input patterns and corresponding outputs (or targets that indicate whether the input pattern should be split at a certain position, or not. In the process of compiling a list of syllabified words from which to generate training data for the  syllabification problem, irregular patterns were identified. The same letter patterns are split differently in different words and complete words that are spelled identically are split differently due to meaning. We also identified irregularities in and between  the different dictionaries that we used. We examined the influence range of letters that are involved in irregularities. For example, for their in agter-ente and vaste-rente we have to consider three letters to the left of r to be certain where the hyphen should be inserted. The influence range of the k in verstek-waarde and kleinste-kwadrate is four to the left and three to the right. In an analysis of letter patterns in Afrikaans words we found that the letter e has the highest frequency overall (16,2% of all letters in the word list. The frequency of words starting with s is the highest, while the frequency of words ending with e is the highest. It is important to