Nowcasting of deep convective clouds and heavy precipitation: Comparison study between NWP model simulation and extrapolation

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Bližňák, Vojtěch; Sokol, Zbyněk; Zacharov, Petr, jr.

2017-01-01

Roč. 184, February (2017), s. 24-34 ISSN 0169-8095 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GPP209/12/P701; GA ČR GA13-34856S Institutional support: RVO:68378289 Keywords : meteorological satellite * convective storm * NWP model * verification * Czech Republic Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology OBOR OECD: Meteorology and atmospheric sciences Impact factor: 3.778, year: 2016 http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169809516304288

The use of satellite data assimilation methods in regional NWP for solar irradiance forecasting

Science.gov (United States)

Kurzrock, Frederik; Cros, Sylvain; Chane-Ming, Fabrice; Potthast, Roland; Linguet, Laurent; Sébastien, Nicolas

2016-04-01

As an intermittent energy source, the injection of solar power into electricity grids requires irradiance forecasting in order to ensure grid stability. On time scales of more than six hours ahead, numerical weather prediction (NWP) is recognized as the most appropriate solution. However, the current representation of clouds in NWP models is not sufficiently precise for an accurate forecast of solar irradiance at ground level. Dynamical downscaling does not necessarily increase the quality of irradiance forecasts. Furthermore, incorrectly simulated cloud evolution is often the cause of inaccurate atmospheric analyses. In non-interconnected tropical areas, the large amplitudes of solar irradiance variability provide abundant solar yield but present significant problems for grid safety. Irradiance forecasting is particularly important for solar power stakeholders in these regions where PV electricity penetration is increasing. At the same time, NWP is markedly more challenging in tropic areas than in mid-latitudes due to the special characteristics of tropical homogeneous convective air masses. Numerous data assimilation methods and strategies have evolved and been applied to a large variety of global and regional NWP models in the recent decades. Assimilating data from geostationary meteorological satellites is an appropriate approach. Indeed, models converting radiances measured by satellites into cloud properties already exist. Moreover, data are available at high temporal frequencies, which enable a pertinent cloud cover evolution modelling for solar energy forecasts. In this work, we present a survey of different approaches which aim at improving cloud cover forecasts using the assimilation of geostationary meteorological satellite data into regional NWP models. Various approaches have been applied to a variety of models and satellites and in different regions of the world. Current methods focus on the assimilation of cloud-top information, derived from infrared

Evaluation of NWP-based Satellite Precipitation Error Correction with Near-Real-Time Model Products and Flood-inducing Storms

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, X.; Anagnostou, E. N.; Schwartz, C. S.

2017-12-01

Satellite precipitation products tend to have significant biases over complex terrain. Our research investigates a statistical approach for satellite precipitation adjustment based solely on numerical weather simulations. This approach has been evaluated in two mid-latitude (Zhang et al. 2013*1, Zhang et al. 2016*2) and three topical mountainous regions by using the WRF model to adjust two high-resolution satellite products i) National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center morphing technique (CMORPH) and ii) Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation (GSMaP). Results show the adjustment effectively reduces the satellite underestimation of high rain rates, which provides a solid proof-of-concept for continuing research of NWP-based satellite correction. In this study we investigate the feasibility of using NCAR Real-time Ensemble Forecasts*3 for adjusting near-real-time satellite precipitation datasets over complex terrain areas in the Continental United States (CONUS) such as Olympic Peninsula, California coastal mountain ranges, Rocky Mountains and South Appalachians. The research will focus on flood-inducing storms occurred from May 2015 to December 2016 and four satellite precipitation products (CMORPH, GSMaP, PERSIANN-CCS and IMERG). The error correction performance evaluation will be based on comparisons against the gauge-adjusted Stage IV precipitation data. *1 Zhang, Xinxuan, et al. "Using NWP simulations in satellite rainfall estimation of heavy precipitation events over mountainous areas." Journal of Hydrometeorology 14.6 (2013): 1844-1858. *2 Zhang, Xinxuan, et al. "Hydrologic Evaluation of NWP-Adjusted CMORPH Estimates of Hurricane-Induced Precipitation in the Southern Appalachians." Journal of Hydrometeorology 17.4 (2016): 1087-1099. *3 Schwartz, Craig S., et al. "NCAR's experimental real-time convection-allowing ensemble prediction system." Weather and Forecasting 30.6 (2015): 1645-1654.

A new approach for assimilation of 2D radar precipitation in a high-resolution NWP model

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Korsholm, Ulrik Smith; Petersen, Claus; Sass, Bent Hansen

2015-01-01

of precipitation, the strength of the nudging is proportional to the offset between observed and modelled precipitation, leading to increased moisture convergence. If the model over-predicts precipitation, the low level moisture source is reduced, and in-cloud moisture is nudged towards environmental values......A new approach for assimilation of 2D precipitation in numerical weather prediction models is presented and tested in a case with convective, heavy precipitation. In the scheme a nudging term is added to the horizontal velocity divergence tendency equation. In case of underproduction....... The method was implemented in the Danish Meteorological Institute numerical weather prediction (DMI NWP) nowcasting system, running with hourly cycles, performing a surface analysis and 3D variational analysis for upper air assimilation at each cycle restart, followed by nudging assimilation of precipitation...

CAUSES: Attribution of Surface Radiation Biases in NWP and Climate Models near the U.S. Southern Great Plains

Science.gov (United States)

Van Weverberg, K.; Morcrette, C. J.; Petch, J.; Klein, S. A.; Ma, H.-Y.; Zhang, C.; Xie, S.; Tang, Q.; Gustafson, W. I.; Qian, Y.; Berg, L. K.; Liu, Y.; Huang, M.; Ahlgrimm, M.; Forbes, R.; Bazile, E.; Roehrig, R.; Cole, J.; Merryfield, W.; Lee, W.-S.; Cheruy, F.; Mellul, L.; Wang, Y.-C.; Johnson, K.; Thieman, M. M.

2018-04-01

Many Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) and climate models exhibit too warm lower tropospheres near the midlatitude continents. The warm bias has been shown to coincide with important surface radiation biases that likely play a critical role in the inception or the growth of the warm bias. This paper presents an attribution study on the net radiation biases in nine model simulations, performed in the framework of the CAUSES project (Clouds Above the United States and Errors at the Surface). Contributions from deficiencies in the surface properties, clouds, water vapor, and aerosols are quantified, using an array of radiation measurement stations near the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Southern Great Plains site. Furthermore, an in-depth analysis is shown to attribute the radiation errors to specific cloud regimes. The net surface shortwave radiation is overestimated in all models throughout most of the simulation period. Cloud errors are shown to contribute most to this overestimation, although nonnegligible contributions from the surface albedo exist in most models. Missing deep cloud events and/or simulating deep clouds with too weak cloud radiative effects dominate in the cloud-related radiation errors. Some models have compensating errors between excessive occurrence of deep cloud but largely underestimating their radiative effect, while other models miss deep cloud events altogether. Surprisingly, even the latter models tend to produce too much and too frequent afternoon surface precipitation. This suggests that rather than issues with the triggering of deep convection, cloud radiative deficiencies are related to too weak convective cloud detrainment and too large precipitation efficiencies.

Benchmarking NWP Kernels on Multi- and Many-core Processors

Science.gov (United States)

Michalakes, J.; Vachharajani, M.

2008-12-01

Increased computing power for weather, climate, and atmospheric science has provided direct benefits for defense, agriculture, the economy, the environment, and public welfare and convenience. Today, very large clusters with many thousands of processors are allowing scientists to move forward with simulations of unprecedented size. But time-critical applications such as real-time forecasting or climate prediction need strong scaling: faster nodes and processors, not more of them. Moreover, the need for good cost- performance has never been greater, both in terms of performance per watt and per dollar. For these reasons, the new generations of multi- and many-core processors being mass produced for commercial IT and "graphical computing" (video games) are being scrutinized for their ability to exploit the abundant fine- grain parallelism in atmospheric models. We present results of our work to date identifying key computational kernels within the dynamics and physics of a large community NWP model, the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model. We benchmark and optimize these kernels on several different multi- and many-core processors. The goals are to (1) characterize and model performance of the kernels in terms of computational intensity, data parallelism, memory bandwidth pressure, memory footprint, etc. (2) enumerate and classify effective strategies for coding and optimizing for these new processors, (3) assess difficulties and opportunities for tool or higher-level language support, and (4) establish a continuing set of kernel benchmarks that can be used to measure and compare effectiveness of current and future designs of multi- and many-core processors for weather and climate applications.

Vertical Wave Coupling associated with Stratospheric Sudden Warming Events analyzed in an Isentropic-Coordinate NWP Model.

Science.gov (United States)

Bleck, R.; Sun, S.; Benjamin, S.; Brown, J. M.

2017-12-01

Two- to four-week predictions of stratospheric sudden warming events during the winter seasons of 1999-2014, carried out with a high-resolution icosahedral NWP model using potential temperature as vertical coordinate, are inspected for commonalities in the evolution of both minor and major warmings. Emphasis is on the evolution of the potential vorticity field at different levels in the stratosphere, as well as on the sign and magnitude of the vertical component of the Eliassen-Palm flux vector suggestive of wave forcing in either direction. Material is presented shedding light on the skill of the model (FIM, developed at NOAA/ESRL) in predicting stratospheric warmings generally 2 weeks in advance. With an icosahedral grid ideally suited for studying polar processes, and a vertical coordinate faithfully reproducing details in the evolution of the potential vorticity and EP flux vector fields, FIM is found to be a good tool for investigating the SSW mechanism.

NWP-Based Adjustment of IMERG Precipitation for Flood-Inducing Complex Terrain Storms: Evaluation over CONUS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xinxuan Zhang

2018-04-01

Full Text Available This paper evaluates the use of precipitation forecasts from a numerical weather prediction (NWP model for near-real-time satellite precipitation adjustment based on 81 flood-inducing heavy precipitation events in seven mountainous regions over the conterminous United States. The study is facilitated by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR real-time ensemble forecasts (called model, the Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for GPM (IMERG near-real-time precipitation product (called raw IMERG and the Stage IV multi-radar/multi-sensor precipitation product (called Stage IV used as a reference. We evaluated four precipitation datasets (the model forecasts, raw IMERG, gauge-adjusted IMERG and model-adjusted IMERG through comparisons against Stage IV at six-hourly and event length scales. The raw IMERG product consistently underestimated heavy precipitation in all study regions, while the domain average rainfall magnitudes exhibited by the model were fairly accurate. The model exhibited error in the locations of intense precipitation over inland regions, however, while the IMERG product generally showed correct spatial precipitation patterns. Overall, the model-adjusted IMERG product performed best over inland regions by taking advantage of the more accurate rainfall magnitude from NWP and the spatial distribution from IMERG. In coastal regions, although model-based adjustment effectively improved the performance of the raw IMERG product, the model forecast performed even better. The IMERG product could benefit from gauge-based adjustment, as well, but the improvement from model-based adjustment was consistently more significant.

Comparison of NWP prognosis and local monitoring data from NPPs

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Astrup, Poul; Mikkelsen, Torben

2010-01-01

For four German nuclear power plant sites and for Risø, the site of the Danish nuclear research reactors now being decommissioned, Numerical Weather Predictions (NWP) of wind speed and direction have been compared to 10 minute averaged local measurements. For the German sites the comparison covers...

Sensitivity of Satellite-Based Skin Temperature to Different Surface Emissivity and NWP Reanalysis Sources Demonstrated Using a Single-Channel, Viewing-Angle-Corrected Retrieval Algorithm

Science.gov (United States)

Scarino, B. R.; Minnis, P.; Yost, C. R.; Chee, T.; Palikonda, R.

2015-12-01

Single-channel algorithms for satellite thermal-infrared- (TIR-) derived land and sea surface skin temperature (LST and SST) are advantageous in that they can be easily applied to a variety of satellite sensors. They can also accommodate decade-spanning instrument series, particularly for periods when split-window capabilities are not available. However, the benefit of one unified retrieval methodology for all sensors comes at the cost of critical sensitivity to surface emissivity (ɛs) and atmospheric transmittance estimation. It has been demonstrated that as little as 0.01 variance in ɛs can amount to more than a 0.5-K adjustment in retrieved LST values. Atmospheric transmittance requires calculations that employ vertical profiles of temperature and humidity from numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. Selection of a given NWP model can significantly affect LST and SST agreement relative to their respective validation sources. Thus, it is necessary to understand the accuracies of the retrievals for various NWP models to ensure the best LST/SST retrievals. The sensitivities of the single-channel retrievals to surface emittance and NWP profiles are investigated using NASA Langley historic land and ocean clear-sky skin temperature (Ts) values derived from high-resolution 11-μm TIR brightness temperature measured from geostationary satellites (GEOSat) and Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometers (AVHRR). It is shown that mean GEOSat-derived, anisotropy-corrected LST can vary by up to ±0.8 K depending on whether CERES or MODIS ɛs sources are used. Furthermore, the use of either NOAA Global Forecast System (GFS) or NASA Goddard Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) for the radiative transfer model initial atmospheric state can account for more than 0.5-K variation in mean Ts. The results are compared to measurements from the Surface Radiation Budget Network (SURFRAD), an Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program ground

Meteorological uncertainty of atmospheric dispersion model results (MUD)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Havskov Soerensen, J.; Amstrup, B.; Feddersen, H.

2013-08-01

The MUD project addresses assessment of uncertainties of atmospheric dispersion model predictions, as well as possibilities for optimum presentation to decision makers. Previously, it has not been possible to estimate such uncertainties quantitatively, but merely to calculate the 'most likely' dispersion scenario. However, recent developments in numerical weather prediction (NWP) include probabilistic forecasting techniques, which can be utilised also for long-range atmospheric dispersion models. The ensemble statistical methods developed and applied to NWP models aim at describing the inherent uncertainties of the meteorological model results. These uncertainties stem from e.g. limits in meteorological observations used to initialise meteorological forecast series. By perturbing e.g. the initial state of an NWP model run in agreement with the available observational data, an ensemble of meteorological forecasts is produced from which uncertainties in the various meteorological parameters are estimated, e.g. probabilities for rain. Corresponding ensembles of atmospheric dispersion can now be computed from which uncertainties of predicted radionuclide concentration and deposition patterns can be derived. (Author)

Comparison of NWP wind speeds and directions to measured wind speeds and directions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Astrup, Poul; Mikkelsen, Torben

Numerical Weather Predictions (NWP) of wind speed and direction has been compared to measurements for seven German sites for nuclear power plants, and for Risø, the site of the Danish nuclear research reactors now being decommissioned . For the German sites the data cover approximately three month...

Meteorological uncertainty of atmospheric dispersion model results (MUD)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Havskov Soerensen, J.; Amstrup, B.; Feddersen, H. [Danish Meteorological Institute, Copenhagen (Denmark)] [and others

2013-08-15

The MUD project addresses assessment of uncertainties of atmospheric dispersion model predictions, as well as possibilities for optimum presentation to decision makers. Previously, it has not been possible to estimate such uncertainties quantitatively, but merely to calculate the 'most likely' dispersion scenario. However, recent developments in numerical weather prediction (NWP) include probabilistic forecasting techniques, which can be utilised also for long-range atmospheric dispersion models. The ensemble statistical methods developed and applied to NWP models aim at describing the inherent uncertainties of the meteorological model results. These uncertainties stem from e.g. limits in meteorological observations used to initialise meteorological forecast series. By perturbing e.g. the initial state of an NWP model run in agreement with the available observational data, an ensemble of meteorological forecasts is produced from which uncertainties in the various meteorological parameters are estimated, e.g. probabilities for rain. Corresponding ensembles of atmospheric dispersion can now be computed from which uncertainties of predicted radionuclide concentration and deposition patterns can be derived. (Author)

Employing Tropospheric Numerical Weather Prediction Model for High-Precision GNSS Positioning

Science.gov (United States)

Alves, Daniele; Gouveia, Tayna; Abreu, Pedro; Magário, Jackes

2014-05-01

In the past few years is increasing the necessity of realizing high accuracy positioning. In this sense, the spatial technologies have being widely used. The GNSS (Global Navigation Satellite System) has revolutionized the geodetic positioning activities. Among the existent methods one can emphasize the Precise Point Positioning (PPP) and network-based positioning. But, to get high accuracy employing these methods, mainly in real time, is indispensable to realize the atmospheric modeling (ionosphere and troposphere) accordingly. Related to troposphere, there are the empirical models (for example Saastamoinen and Hopfield). But when highly accuracy results (error of few centimeters) are desired, maybe these models are not appropriated to the Brazilian reality. In order to minimize this limitation arises the NWP (Numerical Weather Prediction) models. In Brazil the CPTEC/INPE (Center for Weather Prediction and Climate Studies / Brazilian Institute for Spatial Researches) provides a regional NWP model, currently used to produce Zenithal Tropospheric Delay (ZTD) predictions (http://satelite.cptec.inpe.br/zenital/). The actual version, called eta15km model, has a spatial resolution of 15 km and temporal resolution of 3 hours. In this paper the main goal is to accomplish experiments and analysis concerning the use of troposphere NWP model (eta15km model) in PPP and network-based positioning. Concerning PPP it was used data from dozens of stations over the Brazilian territory, including Amazon forest. The results obtained with NWP model were compared with Hopfield one. NWP model presented the best results in all experiments. Related to network-based positioning it was used data from GNSS/SP Network in São Paulo State, Brazil. This network presents the best configuration in the country to realize this kind of positioning. Actually the network is composed by twenty stations (http://www.fct.unesp.br/#!/pesquisa/grupos-de-estudo-e-pesquisa/gege//gnss-sp-network2789/). The

A New Integrated Weighted Model in SNOW-V10: Verification of Categorical Variables

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, Laura X.; Isaac, George A.; Sheng, Grant

2014-01-01

This paper presents the verification results for nowcasts of seven categorical variables from an integrated weighted model (INTW) and the underlying numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. Nowcasting, or short range forecasting (0-6 h), over complex terrain with sufficient accuracy is highly desirable but a very challenging task. A weighting, evaluation, bias correction and integration system (WEBIS) for generating nowcasts by integrating NWP forecasts and high frequency observations was used during the Vancouver 2010 Olympic and Paralympic Winter Games as part of the Science of Nowcasting Olympic Weather for Vancouver 2010 (SNOW-V10) project. Forecast data from Canadian high-resolution deterministic NWP system with three nested grids (at 15-, 2.5- and 1-km horizontal grid-spacing) were selected as background gridded data for generating the integrated nowcasts. Seven forecast variables of temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, wind gust, visibility, ceiling and precipitation rate are treated as categorical variables for verifying the integrated weighted forecasts. By analyzing the verification of forecasts from INTW and the NWP models among 15 sites, the integrated weighted model was found to produce more accurate forecasts for the 7 selected forecast variables, regardless of location. This is based on the multi-categorical Heidke skill scores for the test period 12 February to 21 March 2010.

Simulation and Prediction of Weather Radar Clutter Using a Wave Propagator on High Resolution NWP Data

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Benzon, Hans-Henrik; Bovith, Thomas

2008-01-01

for prediction of this type of weather radar clutter is presented. The method uses a wave propagator to identify areas of potential non-standard propagation. The wave propagator uses a three dimensional refractivity field derived from the geophysical parameters: temperature, humidity, and pressure obtained from......Weather radars are essential sensors for observation of precipitation in the troposphere and play a major part in weather forecasting and hydrological modelling. Clutter caused by non-standard wave propagation is a common problem in weather radar applications, and in this paper a method...... a high-resolution Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model. The wave propagator is based on the parabolic equation approximation to the electromagnetic wave equation. The parabolic equation is solved using the well-known Fourier split-step method. Finally, the radar clutter prediction technique is used...

Next generation sequencing yields the complete mitochondrial genome of the flathead mullet, Mugil cephalus cryptic species NWP2 (Teleostei: Mugilidae).

Science.gov (United States)

Shen, Kang-Ning; Yen, Ta-Chi; Chen, Ching-Hung; Li, Huei-Ying; Chen, Pei-Lung; Hsiao, Chung-Der

2016-05-01

In this study, the complete mitogenome sequence of Northwestern Pacific 2 (NWP2) cryptic species of flathead mullet, Mugil cephalus (Teleostei: Mugilidae) has been amplified by long-range PCR and sequenced by next-generation sequencing method. The assembled mitogenome, consisting of 16,686 bp, had the typical vertebrate mitochondrial gene arrangement, including 13 protein-coding genes, 22 transfer RNAs, 2 ribosomal RNAs genes and a non-coding control region of D-loop. D-loop was 909 bp length and was located between tRNA-Pro and tRNA-Phe. The overall base composition of NWP2 M. cephalus was 28.4% for A, 29.8% for C, 26.5% for T and 15.3% for G. The complete mitogenome may provide essential and important DNA molecular data for further phylogenetic and evolutionary analysis for flathead mullet species complex.

Aviation Model: A Fine-Scale Numerical Weather Prediction System for Aviation Applications at the Hong Kong International Airport

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wai-Kin Wong

2013-01-01

Full Text Available The Hong Kong Observatory (HKO is planning to implement a fine-resolution Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP model for supporting the aviation weather applications at the Hong Kong International Airport (HKIA. This new NWP model system, called Aviation Model (AVM, is configured at a horizontal grid spacing of 600 m and 200 m. It is based on the WRF-ARW (Advance Research WRF model that can have sufficient computation efficiency in order to produce hourly updated forecasts up to 9 hours ahead on a future high performance computer system with theoretical peak performance of around 10 TFLOPS. AVM will be nested inside the operational mesoscale NWP model of HKO with horizontal resolution of 2 km. In this paper, initial numerical experiment results in forecast of windshear events due to seabreeze and terrain effect are discussed. The simulation of sea-breeze-related windshear is quite successful, and the headwind change observed from flight data could be reproduced in the model forecast. Some impacts of physical processes on generating the fine-scale wind circulation and development of significant convection are illustrated. The paper also discusses the limitations in the current model setup and proposes methods for the future development of AVM.

On the performance of the new NWP nowcasting system at the Danish Meteorological Institute during a heavy rain period

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Olsen, Bjarke Tobias; Smith Korsholm, Ulrik; Petersen, Claus

2015-01-01

At the Danish Meteorological Institute, the NWP nowcasting system has been enhanced to include assimilation of 2D precipitation rates derived from weather radar observations. The assimilation is performed using a nudging-based technique. Here the rain rates are used to estimate the changes in the...

High-resolution numerical modeling of mesoscale island wakes and sensitivity to static topographic relief data

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

C. G. Nunalee

2015-08-01

Full Text Available Recent decades have witnessed a drastic increase in the fidelity of numerical weather prediction (NWP modeling. Currently, both research-grade and operational NWP models regularly perform simulations with horizontal grid spacings as fine as 1 km. This migration towards higher resolution potentially improves NWP model solutions by increasing the resolvability of mesoscale processes and reducing dependency on empirical physics parameterizations. However, at the same time, the accuracy of high-resolution simulations, particularly in the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL, is also sensitive to orographic forcing which can have significant variability on the same spatial scale as, or smaller than, NWP model grids. Despite this sensitivity, many high-resolution atmospheric simulations do not consider uncertainty with respect to selection of static terrain height data set. In this paper, we use the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF model to simulate realistic cases of lower tropospheric flow over and downstream of mountainous islands using the default global 30 s United States Geographic Survey terrain height data set (GTOPO30, the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM, and the Global Multi-resolution Terrain Elevation Data set (GMTED2010 terrain height data sets. While the differences between the SRTM-based and GMTED2010-based simulations are extremely small, the GTOPO30-based simulations differ significantly. Our results demonstrate cases where the differences between the source terrain data sets are significant enough to produce entirely different orographic wake mechanics, such as vortex shedding vs. no vortex shedding. These results are also compared to MODIS visible satellite imagery and ASCAT near-surface wind retrievals. Collectively, these results highlight the importance of utilizing accurate static orographic boundary conditions when running high-resolution mesoscale models.

Multiscale Analysis of the Water Content Output the NWP Model COSMO Over Switzerland and Comparison With Radar Data

Science.gov (United States)

Wolfensberger, D.; Gires, A.; Berne, A.; Tchiguirinskaia, I.; Schertzer, D. J. M.

2015-12-01

The resolution of operational numerical prediction models is typically of the order of a few kilometres meaning that small-scale features of precipitation can not be resolved explicitly. This creates the need for representative parametrizations of microphysical processes whose properties should be carefully analysed. In this study we will focus on the COSMO model which is a non-hydrostatic limited-area model, initially developed as the Lokal Model and used operationally in Switzerland and Germany. In its operational version, cloud microphysical processes are simulated with a one-moment bulk scheme where five hydrometeor classes are considered: cloud droplets, rain, ice crystals, snow, and graupel. A more sophisticated two-moment scheme is also available. The study will focus on two case studies: one in Payerne in western Switzerland in a relatively flat region and one in Davos in the eastern Swiss Alps in a more complex terrain.The objective of this work is to characterize the ability of the COSMO NWP model to reproduce the microphysics of precipitation across temporal and spatial scales as well as scaling variability. The characterization of COSMO outputs will rely on the Universal Multifractals framework, which allows to analyse and simulate geophysical fields extremely variabile over a wide range of scales with the help of a reduced number of parameters. First COSMO outputs are analysed; spatial multifractal analysis of 2D maps at various altitudes for each time steps are carried out for simulated solid, liquid, vapour and total water content. In general the fields exhibit a good quality of scaling on the whole range of available scales (2 km - 250 km), but some loss of scaling quality corresponding to the emergence of a scaling break are sometimes visible. This behaviour is not found at the same time or at the same altitude according to the water state and does not necessarily spread to the total water content. It is interpreted with the help of the underlying

A Simple Technique for Creating Regional Composites of Sea Surface Temperature from MODIS for Use in Operational Mesoscale NWP

Science.gov (United States)

Knievel, Jason C.; Rife, Daran L.; Grim, Joseph A.; Hahmann, Andrea N.; Hacker, Joshua P.; Ge, Ming; Fisher, Henry H.

2010-01-01

phenomenon was chosen for demonstrating the use of the MODIS-based composite in an NWP model. A simulated sea breeze in the vicinity of New York City and Long Island shows a small, net, but far from universal improvement when MODIS-based composites are used in place of RTG analyses. The timing of the sea breeze s arrival is more accurate at some stations, and the near-surface temperature, wind, and humidity within the breeze are more realistic.

Atlas : A library for numerical weather prediction and climate modelling

Science.gov (United States)

Deconinck, Willem; Bauer, Peter; Diamantakis, Michail; Hamrud, Mats; Kühnlein, Christian; Maciel, Pedro; Mengaldo, Gianmarco; Quintino, Tiago; Raoult, Baudouin; Smolarkiewicz, Piotr K.; Wedi, Nils P.

2017-11-01

The algorithms underlying numerical weather prediction (NWP) and climate models that have been developed in the past few decades face an increasing challenge caused by the paradigm shift imposed by hardware vendors towards more energy-efficient devices. In order to provide a sustainable path to exascale High Performance Computing (HPC), applications become increasingly restricted by energy consumption. As a result, the emerging diverse and complex hardware solutions have a large impact on the programming models traditionally used in NWP software, triggering a rethink of design choices for future massively parallel software frameworks. In this paper, we present Atlas, a new software library that is currently being developed at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), with the scope of handling data structures required for NWP applications in a flexible and massively parallel way. Atlas provides a versatile framework for the future development of efficient NWP and climate applications on emerging HPC architectures. The applications range from full Earth system models, to specific tools required for post-processing weather forecast products. The Atlas library thus constitutes a step towards affordable exascale high-performance simulations by providing the necessary abstractions that facilitate the application in heterogeneous HPC environments by promoting the co-design of NWP algorithms with the underlying hardware.

Microphysical Parameterizations for NWP: It's All About the Sizes and Production Pathways of Hydrometeors

Science.gov (United States)

Michelson, Sara A.; Bao, Jian-Wen; Grell, Evelyn D.

2017-04-01

Bulk microphysical parameterization schemes are popularly used in numerical weather prediction (NWP) models to simulate clouds and precpitation. These schemes are based on assumed number distribution functions for individual hydrometeor species, which are integratable over size distributions of diameters from zero to infinity. Typically, hydrometeor mass and number mixing ratios are predicted in these schemes. Some schemes also predict a third parameter of hydrometeor distribution characteristics. In this study, four commonly-used microphysics schemes of various complexity that are available in the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) are investigated and compared using numerical model simulations of an idealized 2-D squall line and microphysics budget analysis. Diagnoses of the parameterized pathways for hydrometeor production reveal that the differences related to the assumptions of hydrometeor size distributions between the schemes lead to the differences in the simulations due to the net effect of various microphysical processes on the interaction between latent heating/evaporative cooling and flow dynamics as the squall line develops. Results from this study also highlight the possibility that the advantage of double-moment formulations can be overshadowed by the uncertainties in the spectral definition of individual hydrometeor categories and spectrum-dependent microphysical processes. It is concluded that the major differences between the schemes investigated here are in the assumed hydrometeor size distributions and pathways for their production.

Urban meteorological modelling for nuclear emergency preparedness

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Baklanov, Alexander; Sorensen, Jens Havskov; Hoe, Steen Cordt; Amstrup, Bjarne

2006-01-01

The main objectives of the current EU project 'Integrated Systems for Forecasting Urban Meteorology, Air Pollution and Population Exposure' (FUMAPEX) are the improvement of meteorological forecasts for urban areas, the connection of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models to urban air pollution and population dose models, the building of improved urban air quality information and forecasting systems, and their application in cities in various European climates. In addition to the forecast of the worst air-pollution episodes in large cities, the potential use of improved weather forecasts for nuclear emergency management in urban areas, in case of hazardous releases from nuclear accidents or terror acts, is considered. Such use of NWP data is tested for the Copenhagen metropolitan area and the Oresund region. The Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI) is running an experimental version of the HIRLAM NWP model over Zealand including the Copenhagen metropolitan area with a horizontal resolution of 1.4 km, thus approaching the city-scale. This involves 1-km resolution physiographic data with implications for the urban surface parameters, e.g. surface fluxes, roughness length and albedo. For the city of Copenhagen, the enhanced high-resolution NWP forecasting will be provided to demonstrate the improved dispersion forecasting capabilities of the Danish nuclear emergency preparedness decision-support system, the Accident Reporting and Guidance Operational System (ARGOS), used by the Danish Emergency Management Agency (DEMA). Recently, ARGOS has been extended with a capability of real-time calculation of regional-scale atmospheric dispersion of radioactive material from accidental releases. This is effectuated through on-line interfacing with the Danish Emergency Response Model of the Atmosphere (DERMA), which is run at DMI. For local-scale modelling of atmospheric dispersion, ARGOS utilises the Local-Scale Model Chain (LSMC), which makes use of high-resolution DMI

Interactions in heated milk model systems with different ratios of nanoparticulated whey protein at varying pH

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Liu, Guanchen; Jæger, Tanja C.; Nielsen, Søren B.

2017-01-01

To better understand the interactions between nanoparticulated whey protein (NWP) and other milk proteins during acidification, milk model systems were diluted to 0.5% protein concentration and adjusted to pH of 6.0-4.5 following homogenisation and heat treatment. The diluted systems with different...... concentrations of NWP (0-0.5%) were characterised in terms of particle size, viscosity, surface charge and hydrophobicity. When pH was adjusted to 5.5, aggregation was initiated at levels of NWP (0.25-0.5%) leading to significant increase in particle size and viscosity. Pure NWP (0.5%) showed largest initial...

Hindcast experiments of the derecho in Estonia on 08 August, 2010: Modelling derecho with NWP model HARMONIE

Science.gov (United States)

Toll, Velle; Männik, Aarne; Luhamaa, Andres; Rõõm, Rein

2015-05-01

On August 8, 2010, a derecho swept over Northern Europe, causing widespread wind damage and more than 2 million Euros in economic loss in Estonia during its most destructive stage. This paper presents a modelling study of the derecho-producing storm utilising the Hirlam Aladin Research for Mesoscale Operational Numerical Weather Prediction in Europe (HARMONIE) model. The model setup is chosen to mimic near-future, nearly kilometre-scale, operational environments in European national weather services. The model simulations are compared to remote sensing and in situ observations. The HARMONIE model is capable of reproducing the wind gust severity and precipitation intensity. Moreover, 2.5-km grid spacing is shown to be sufficient for producing a reliable signal of the severe convective storm. Storm dynamics are well simulated, including the rear inflow jet. Although the model performance is promising, a strong dependence on the initial data, a weak trailing stratiform precipitation region and an incorrect timing of the storm are identified.

Toward seamless high-resolution flash flood forecasting over Europe based on radar nowcasting and NWP: An evaluation with case studies

Science.gov (United States)

Park, Shinju; Berenguer, Marc; Sempere-Torres, Daniel; Baugh, Calum; Smith, Paul

2017-04-01

Flash floods induced by heavy rain are one of the hazardous natural events that significantly affect human lives. Because flash floods are characterized by their rapid onset, forecasting flash flood to lead an effective response requires accurate rainfall predictions with high spatial and temporal resolution and adequate representation of the hydrologic and hydraulic processes within a catchment that determine rainfall-runoff accumulations. We present extreme flash flood cases which occurred throughout Europe in 2015-2016 that were identified and forecasted by two real-time approaches: 1) the European Rainfall-Induced Hazard Assessment System (ERICHA) and 2) the European Runoff Index based on Climatology (ERIC). ERICHA is based on the nowcasts of accumulated precipitation generated from the pan-European radar composites produced by the EUMETNET project OPERA. It has the advantage of high-resolution precipitation inputs and rapidly updated forecasts (every 15 minutes), but limited forecast lead time (up to 8 hours). ERIC, on the other hand, provides 5-day forecasts based on the COSMO-LEPS NWP simulations updated 2 times a day but is only produced at a 7 km resolution. We compare the products from both systems and focus on showing the advantages, limitations and complementarities of ERICHA and ERIC for seamless high-resolution flash flood forecasting.

Simulation of infiltration and redistribution of intense rainfall using Land Surface Models

Science.gov (United States)

Mueller, Anna; Verhoef, Anne; Cloke, Hannah

2016-04-01

Flooding from intense rainfall (FFIR) can cause widespread damage and disruption. Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models provide distributed information about atmospheric conditions, such as precipitation, that can lead to a flooding event. Short duration, high intensity rainfall events are generally poorly predicted by NWP models, because of the high spatiotemporal resolution required and because of the way the convective rainfall is described in the model. The resolution of NWP models is ever increasing. Better understanding of complex hydrological processes and the effect of scale is important in order to improve the prediction of magnitude and duration of such events, in the context of disaster management. Working as part of the NERC SINATRA project, we evaluated how the Land Surface Model (LSM) components of NWP models cope with high intensity rainfall input and subsequent infiltration problems. Both in terms of the amount of water infiltrated in the soil store, as well as the timing and the amount of surface and subsurface runoff generated. The models investigated are SWAP (Soil Water Air Plant, Alterra, the Netherlands, van Dam 1997), JULES (Joint UK Land Environment Simulator a component of Unified Model in UK Met Office, Best et al. 2011) and CHTESSEL (Carbon and Hydrology- Tiled ECMWF Scheme for Surface Exchanges over Land, Balsamo et al. 2009) We analysed the numerical aspects arising from discontinuities (or sharp gradients) in forcing and/or the model solution. These types of infiltration configurations were tested in the laboratory (Vachaud 1971), for some there are semi-analytical solutions (Philip 1957, Parlange 1972, Vanderborght 2005) or reference numerical solutions (Haverkamp 1977, van Dam 2000, Vanderborght 2005). The maximum infiltration by the surface, Imax, is in general dependent on atmospheric conditions, surface type, soil type, soil moisture content θ, and surface orographic factor σ. The models used differ in their approach to

Conditional Stochastic Models in Reduced Space: Towards Efficient Simulation of Tropical Cyclone Precipitation Patterns

Science.gov (United States)

Dodov, B.

2017-12-01

Stochastic simulation of realistic and statistically robust patterns of Tropical Cyclone (TC) induced precipitation is a challenging task. It is even more challenging in a catastrophe modeling context, where tens of thousands of typhoon seasons need to be simulated in order to provide a complete view of flood risk. Ultimately, one could run a coupled global climate model and regional Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model, but this approach is not feasible in the catastrophe modeling context and, most importantly, may not provide TC track patterns consistent with observations. Rather, we propose to leverage NWP output for the observed TC precipitation patterns (in terms of downscaled reanalysis 1979-2015) collected on a Lagrangian frame along the historical TC tracks and reduced to the leading spatial principal components of the data. The reduced data from all TCs is then grouped according to timing, storm evolution stage (developing, mature, dissipating, ETC transitioning) and central pressure and used to build a dictionary of stationary (within a group) and non-stationary (for transitions between groups) covariance models. Provided that the stochastic storm tracks with all the parameters describing the TC evolution are already simulated, a sequence of conditional samples from the covariance models chosen according to the TC characteristics at a given moment in time are concatenated, producing a continuous non-stationary precipitation pattern in a Lagrangian framework. The simulated precipitation for each event is finally distributed along the stochastic TC track and blended with a non-TC background precipitation using a data assimilation technique. The proposed framework provides means of efficient simulation (10000 seasons simulated in a couple of days) and robust typhoon precipitation patterns consistent with observed regional climate and visually undistinguishable from high resolution NWP output. The framework is used to simulate a catalog of 10000 typhoon

Effects of model resolution and parameterizations on the simulations of clouds, precipitation, and their interactions with aerosols

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Seoung Soo; Li, Zhanqing; Zhang, Yuwei; Yoo, Hyelim; Kim, Seungbum; Kim, Byung-Gon; Choi, Yong-Sang; Mok, Jungbin; Um, Junshik; Ock Choi, Kyoung; Dong, Danhong

2018-01-01

This study investigates the roles played by model resolution and microphysics parameterizations in the well-known uncertainties or errors in simulations of clouds, precipitation, and their interactions with aerosols by the numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. For this investigation, we used cloud-system-resolving model (CSRM) simulations as benchmark simulations that adopt high-resolution and full-fledged microphysical processes. These simulations were evaluated against observations, and this evaluation demonstrated that the CSRM simulations can function as benchmark simulations. Comparisons between the CSRM simulations and the simulations at the coarse resolutions that are generally adopted by current NWP models indicate that the use of coarse resolutions as in the NWP models can lower not only updrafts and other cloud variables (e.g., cloud mass, condensation, deposition, and evaporation) but also their sensitivity to increasing aerosol concentration. The parameterization of the saturation process plays an important role in the sensitivity of cloud variables to aerosol concentrations. while the parameterization of the sedimentation process has a substantial impact on how cloud variables are distributed vertically. The variation in cloud variables with resolution is much greater than what happens with varying microphysics parameterizations, which suggests that the uncertainties in the NWP simulations are associated with resolution much more than microphysics parameterizations.

Evaluation of the performance of a meso-scale NWP model to forecast solar irradiance on Reunion Island for photovoltaic power applications

Science.gov (United States)

Kalecinski, Natacha; Haeffelin, Martial; Badosa, Jordi; Periard, Christophe

2013-04-01

Solar photovoltaic power is a predominant source of electrical power on Reunion Island, regularly providing near 30% of electrical power demand for a few hours per day. However solar power on Reunion Island is strongly modulated by clouds in small temporal and spatial scales. Today regional regulations require that new solar photovoltaic plants be combined with storage systems to reduce electrical power fluctuations on the grid. Hence cloud and solar irradiance forecasting becomes an important tool to help optimize the operation of new solar photovoltaic plants on Reunion Island. Reunion Island, located in the South West of the Indian Ocean, is exposed to persistent trade winds, most of all in winter. In summer, the southward motion of the ITCZ brings atmospheric instabilities on the island and weakens trade winds. This context together with the complex topography of Reunion Island, which is about 60 km wide, with two high summits (3070 and 2512 m) connected by a 1500 m plateau, makes cloudiness very heterogeneous. High cloudiness variability is found between mountain and coastal areas and between the windward, leeward and lateral regions defined with respect to the synoptic wind direction. A detailed study of local dynamics variability is necessary to better understand cloud life cycles around the island. In the presented work, our approach to explore the short-term solar irradiance forecast at local scales is to use the deterministic output from a meso-scale numerical weather prediction (NWP) model, AROME, developed by Meteo France. To start we evaluate the performance of the deterministic forecast from AROME by using meteorological measurements from 21 meteorological ground stations widely spread around the island (and with altitudes from 8 to 2245 m). Ground measurements include solar irradiation, wind speed and direction, relative humidity, air temperature, precipitation and pressure. Secondly we study in the model the local dynamics and thermodynamics that

Ensemble Data Assimilation of Wind and Photovoltaic Power Information in the Convection-permitting High-Resolution Model COSMO-DE

Science.gov (United States)

Declair, Stefan; Saint-Drenan, Yves-Marie; Potthast, Roland

2016-04-01

Determining the amount of weather dependent renewable energy is a demanding task for transmission system operators (TSOs) and wind and photovoltaic (PV) prediction errors require the use of reserve power, which generate costs and can - in extreme cases - endanger the security of supply. In the project EWeLiNE funded by the German government, the German Weather Service and the Fraunhofer Institute on Wind Energy and Energy System Technology develop innovative weather- and power forecasting models and tools for grid integration of weather dependent renewable energy. The key part in energy prediction process chains is the numerical weather prediction (NWP) system. Wind speed and irradiation forecast from NWP system are however subject to several sources of error. The quality of the wind power prediction is mainly penalized by forecast error of the NWP model in the planetary boundary layer (PBL), which is characterized by high spatial and temporal fluctuations of the wind speed. For PV power prediction, weaknesses of the NWP model to correctly forecast i.e. low stratus, the absorption of condensed water or aerosol optical depth are the main sources of errors. Inaccurate radiation schemes (i.e. the two-stream parametrization) are also known as a deficit of NWP systems with regard to irradiation forecast. To mitigate errors like these, NWP model data can be corrected by post-processing techniques such as model output statistics and calibration using historical observational data. Additionally, latest observations can be used in a pre-processing technique called data assimilation (DA). In DA, not only the initial fields are provided, but the model is also synchronized with reality - the observations - and hence the model error is reduced in the forecast. Besides conventional observation networks like radiosondes, synoptic observations or air reports of wind, pressure and humidity, the number of observations measuring meteorological information indirectly such as satellite

Computational Modeling of Large Wildfires: A Roadmap

KAUST Repository

Coen, Janice L.; Douglas, Craig C.

2010-01-01

Wildland fire behavior, particularly that of large, uncontrolled wildfires, has not been well understood or predicted. Our methodology to simulate this phenomenon uses high-resolution dynamic models made of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models

Model output statistics applied to wind power prediction

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Joensen, A; Giebel, G; Landberg, L [Risoe National Lab., Roskilde (Denmark); Madsen, H; Nielsen, H A [The Technical Univ. of Denmark, Dept. of Mathematical Modelling, Lyngby (Denmark)

1999-03-01

Being able to predict the output of a wind farm online for a day or two in advance has significant advantages for utilities, such as better possibility to schedule fossil fuelled power plants and a better position on electricity spot markets. In this paper prediction methods based on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models are considered. The spatial resolution used in NWP models implies that these predictions are not valid locally at a specific wind farm. Furthermore, due to the non-stationary nature and complexity of the processes in the atmosphere, and occasional changes of NWP models, the deviation between the predicted and the measured wind will be time dependent. If observational data is available, and if the deviation between the predictions and the observations exhibits systematic behavior, this should be corrected for; if statistical methods are used, this approaches is usually referred to as MOS (Model Output Statistics). The influence of atmospheric turbulence intensity, topography, prediction horizon length and auto-correlation of wind speed and power is considered, and to take the time-variations into account, adaptive estimation methods are applied. Three estimation techniques are considered and compared, Extended Kalman Filtering, recursive least squares and a new modified recursive least squares algorithm. (au) EU-JOULE-3. 11 refs.

Temporal variatiions of Sea ice cover in the Baltic Sea derived from operational sea ice products used in NWP.

Science.gov (United States)

Lange, Martin; Paul, Gerhard; Potthast, Roland

2014-05-01

Sea ice cover is a crucial parameter for surface fluxes of heat and moisture over water areas. The isolating effect and the much higher albedo strongly reduces the turbulent exchange of heat and moisture from the surface to the atmosphere and allows for cold and dry air mass flow with strong impact on the stability of the whole boundary layer and consequently cloud formation as well as precipitation in the downstream regions. Numerical weather centers as, ECMWF, MetoFrance or DWD use external products to initialize SST and sea ice cover in their NWP models. To the knowledge of the author there are mainly two global sea ice products well established with operational availability, one from NOAA NCEP that combines measurements with satellite data, and the other from OSI-SAF derived from SSMI/S sensors. The latter one is used in the Ostia product. DWD additionally uses a regional product for the Baltic Sea provided by the national center for shipping and hydrografie which combines observations from ships (and icebreakers) for the German part of the Baltic Sea and model analysis from the hydrodynamic HIROMB model of the Swedish meteorological service for the rest of the domain. The temporal evolution of the three different products are compared for a cold period in Februar 2012. Goods and bads will be presented and suggestions for a harmonization of strong day to day jumps over large areas are suggested.

Prediction of minimum temperatures in an alpine region by linear and non-linear post-processing of meteorological models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

R. Barbiero

2007-05-01

Full Text Available Model Output Statistics (MOS refers to a method of post-processing the direct outputs of numerical weather prediction (NWP models in order to reduce the biases introduced by a coarse horizontal resolution. This technique is especially useful in orographically complex regions, where large differences can be found between the NWP elevation model and the true orography. This study carries out a comparison of linear and non-linear MOS methods, aimed at the prediction of minimum temperatures in a fruit-growing region of the Italian Alps, based on the output of two different NWPs (ECMWF T511–L60 and LAMI-3. Temperature, of course, is a particularly important NWP output; among other roles it drives the local frost forecast, which is of great interest to agriculture. The mechanisms of cold air drainage, a distinctive aspect of mountain environments, are often unsatisfactorily captured by global circulation models. The simplest post-processing technique applied in this work was a correction for the mean bias, assessed at individual model grid points. We also implemented a multivariate linear regression on the output at the grid points surrounding the target area, and two non-linear models based on machine learning techniques: Neural Networks and Random Forest. We compare the performance of all these techniques on four different NWP data sets. Downscaling the temperatures clearly improved the temperature forecasts with respect to the raw NWP output, and also with respect to the basic mean bias correction. Multivariate methods generally yielded better results, but the advantage of using non-linear algorithms was small if not negligible. RF, the best performing method, was implemented on ECMWF prognostic output at 06:00 UTC over the 9 grid points surrounding the target area. Mean absolute errors in the prediction of 2 m temperature at 06:00 UTC were approximately 1.2°C, close to the natural variability inside the area itself.

Implementation of a Model Output Statistics based on meteorological variable screening for short‐term wind power forecast

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ranaboldo, Matteo; Giebel, Gregor; Codina, Bernat

2013-01-01

A combination of physical and statistical treatments to post‐process numerical weather predictions (NWP) outputs is needed for successful short‐term wind power forecasts. One of the most promising and effective approaches for statistical treatment is the Model Output Statistics (MOS) technique....... The proposed MOS performed well in both wind farms, and its forecasts compare positively with an actual operative model in use at Risø DTU and other MOS types, showing minimum BIAS and improving NWP power forecast of around 15% in terms of root mean square error. Further improvements could be obtained...

Numerical Methods in Atmospheric and Oceanic Modelling: The Andre J. Robert Memorial Volume

Science.gov (United States)

Rosmond, Tom

Most people, even including some in the scientific community, do not realize how much the weather forecasts they use to guide the activities of their daily lives depend on very complex mathematics and numerical methods that are the basis of modern numerical weather prediction (NWP). André Robert (1929-1993), to whom Numerical Methods in Atmospheric and Oceanic Modelling is dedicated, had a career that contributed greatly to the growth of NWP and the role that the atmospheric computer models of NWP play in our society. There are probably no NWP models running anywhere in the world today that do not use numerical methods introduced by Robert, and those of us who work with and use these models everyday are indebted to him.The first two chapters of the volume are chronicles of Robert's life and career. The first is a 1987 interview by Harold Ritchie, one of Robert's many proteges and colleagues at the Canadian Atmospheric Environment Service. The interview traces Robert's life from his birth in New York to French Canadian parents, to his emigration to Quebec at an early age, his education and early employment, and his rise in stature as one of the preeminent research meteorologists of our time. An amusing anecdote he relates is his impression of weather forecasts while he was considering his first job as a meteorologist in the early 1950s. A newspaper of the time placed the weather forecast and daily horoscope side by side, and Robert regarded each to have a similar scientific basis. Thankfully he soon realized there was a difference between the two, and his subsequent career certainly confirmed the distinction.

Production of solar radiation bankable datasets from high-resolution solar irradiance derived with dynamical downscaling Numerical Weather prediction model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yassine Charabi

2016-11-01

Full Text Available A bankable solar radiation database is required for the financial viability of solar energy project. Accurate estimation of solar energy resources in a country is very important for proper siting, sizing and life cycle cost analysis of solar energy systems. During the last decade an important progress has been made to develop multiple solar irradiance database (Global Horizontal Irradiance (GHI and Direct Normal Irradiance (DNI, using satellite of different resolution and sophisticated models. This paper assesses the performance of High-resolution solar irradiance derived with dynamical downscaling Numerical Weather Prediction model with, GIS topographical solar radiation model, satellite data and ground measurements, for the production of bankable solar radiation datasets. For this investigation, NWP model namely Consortium for Small-scale Modeling (COSMO is used for the dynamical downscaling of solar radiation. The obtained results increase confidence in solar radiation data base obtained from dynamical downscaled NWP model. The mean bias of dynamical downscaled NWP model is small, on the order of a few percents for GHI, and it could be ranked as a bankable datasets. Fortunately, these data are usually archived in the meteorological department and gives a good idea of the hourly, monthly, and annual incident energy. Such short time-interval data are valuable in designing and operating the solar energy facility. The advantage of the NWP model is that it can be used for solar radiation forecast since it can estimate the weather condition within the next 72–120 hours. This gives a reasonable estimation of the solar radiation that in turns can be used to forecast the electric power generation by the solar power plant.

A hybrid convection scheme for use in non-hydrostatic numerical weather prediction models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Volker Kuell

2008-12-01

Full Text Available The correct representation of convection in numerical weather prediction (NWP models is essential for quantitative precipitation forecasts. Due to its small horizontal scale convection usually has to be parameterized, e.g. by mass flux convection schemes. Classical schemes originally developed for use in coarse grid NWP models assume zero net convective mass flux, because the whole circulation of a convective cell is confined to the local grid column and all convective mass fluxes cancel out. However, in contemporary NWP models with grid sizes of a few kilometers this assumption becomes questionable, because here convection is partially resolved on the grid. To overcome this conceptual problem we propose a hybrid mass flux convection scheme (HYMACS in which only the convective updrafts and downdrafts are parameterized. The generation of the larger scale environmental subsidence, which may cover several grid columns, is transferred to the grid scale equations. This means that the convection scheme now has to generate a net convective mass flux exerting a direct dynamical forcing to the grid scale model via pressure gradient forces. The hybrid convection scheme implemented into the COSMO model of Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD is tested in an idealized simulation of a sea breeze circulation initiating convection in a realistic manner. The results are compared with analogous simulations with the classical Tiedtke and Kain-Fritsch convection schemes.

Verification of the skill of numerical weather prediction models in forecasting rainfall from U.S. landfalling tropical cyclones

Science.gov (United States)

Luitel, Beda; Villarini, Gabriele; Vecchi, Gabriel A.

2018-01-01

The goal of this study is the evaluation of the skill of five state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems [European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), UK Met Office (UKMO), National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), China Meteorological Administration (CMA), and Canadian Meteorological Center (CMC)] in forecasting rainfall from North Atlantic tropical cyclones (TCs). Analyses focus on 15 North Atlantic TCs that made landfall along the U.S. coast over the 2007-2012 period. As reference data we use gridded rainfall provided by the Climate Prediction Center (CPC). We consider forecast lead-times up to five days. To benchmark the skill of these models, we consider rainfall estimates from one radar-based (Stage IV) and four satellite-based [Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission - Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA, both real-time and research version); Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks (PERSIANN); the CPC MORPHing Technique (CMORPH)] rainfall products. Daily and storm total rainfall fields from each of these remote sensing products are compared to the reference data to obtain information about the range of errors we can expect from "observational data." The skill of the NWP models is quantified: (1) by visual examination of the distribution of the errors in storm total rainfall for the different lead-times, and numerical examination of the first three moments of the error distribution; (2) relative to climatology at the daily scale. Considering these skill metrics, we conclude that the NWP models can provide skillful forecasts of TC rainfall with lead-times up to 48 h, without a consistently best or worst NWP model.

Modeling and Forecasting the Onset and Duration of Severe Radiation Fog under Frost Conditions

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Velde, van der I.R.; Steeneveld, G.J.; Wichers Schreur, B.G.J.; Holtslag, A.A.M.

2010-01-01

A case of a severe radiation fog during frost conditions is analyzed as a benchmark for the development of a very high resolution NWP model. Results by the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) and the High resolution limited area model (HIRLAM) are evaluated against detailed observations to

Modeling and Forecasting the Onset and Duration of Severe Radiation Fog under Frost Conditions

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van der Velde, I. R.; Steeneveld, G. J.; Schreur, B. G. J. Wichers; Holtslag, A. A. M.

2010-01-01

A case of a severe radiation fog during frost conditions is analyzed as a benchmark for the development of a very high-resolution NWP model Results by the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) and the High Resolution Limited Area Model (H I RLAM) are evaluated against detailed observations to

Prediction of fog/visibility over India using NWP Model

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

Aditi Singh

2018-03-06

Mar 6, 2018 ... National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting, Earth System Science Organization, Ministry of Earth. Sciences, Noida ..... ing water. For a given relative humidity, the aerosol content fixed according to cleaner conditions in the model gives higher values of visibility as com- pared to the polluted ...

Enviro-HIRLAM online integrated meteorology–chemistry modelling system: strategy, methodology, developments and applications (v7.2

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. Baklanov

2017-08-01

Full Text Available The Environment – High Resolution Limited Area Model (Enviro-HIRLAM is developed as a fully online integrated numerical weather prediction (NWP and atmospheric chemical transport (ACT model for research and forecasting of joint meteorological, chemical and biological weather. The integrated modelling system is developed by the Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI in collaboration with several European universities. It is the baseline system in the HIRLAM Chemical Branch and used in several countries and different applications. The development was initiated at DMI more than 15 years ago. The model is based on the HIRLAM NWP model with online integrated pollutant transport and dispersion, chemistry, aerosol dynamics, deposition and atmospheric composition feedbacks. To make the model suitable for chemical weather forecasting in urban areas, the meteorological part was improved by implementation of urban parameterisations. The dynamical core was improved by implementing a locally mass-conserving semi-Lagrangian numerical advection scheme, which improves forecast accuracy and model performance. The current version (7.2, in comparison with previous versions, has a more advanced and cost-efficient chemistry, aerosol multi-compound approach, aerosol feedbacks (direct and semi-direct on radiation and (first and second indirect effects on cloud microphysics. Since 2004, the Enviro-HIRLAM has been used for different studies, including operational pollen forecasting for Denmark since 2009 and operational forecasting atmospheric composition with downscaling for China since 2017. Following the main research and development strategy, further model developments will be extended towards the new NWP platform – HARMONIE. Different aspects of online coupling methodology, research strategy and possible applications of the modelling system, and fit-for-purpose model configurations for the meteorological and air quality communities are discussed.

A global flash flood forecasting system

Science.gov (United States)

Baugh, Calum; Pappenberger, Florian; Wetterhall, Fredrik; Hewson, Tim; Zsoter, Ervin

2016-04-01

The sudden and devastating nature of flash flood events means it is imperative to provide early warnings such as those derived from Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) forecasts. Currently such systems exist on basin, national and continental scales in Europe, North America and Australia but rely on high resolution NWP forecasts or rainfall-radar nowcasting, neither of which have global coverage. To produce global flash flood forecasts this work investigates the possibility of using forecasts from a global NWP system. In particular we: (i) discuss how global NWP can be used for flash flood forecasting and discuss strengths and weaknesses; (ii) demonstrate how a robust evaluation can be performed given the rarity of the event; (iii) highlight the challenges and opportunities in communicating flash flood uncertainty to decision makers; and (iv) explore future developments which would significantly improve global flash flood forecasting. The proposed forecast system uses ensemble surface runoff forecasts from the ECMWF H-TESSEL land surface scheme. A flash flood index is generated using the ERIC (Enhanced Runoff Index based on Climatology) methodology [Raynaud et al., 2014]. This global methodology is applied to a series of flash floods across southern Europe. Results from the system are compared against warnings produced using the higher resolution COSMO-LEPS limited area model. The global system is evaluated by comparing forecasted warning locations against a flash flood database of media reports created in partnership with floodlist.com. To deal with the lack of objectivity in media reports we carefully assess the suitability of different skill scores and apply spatial uncertainty thresholds to the observations. To communicate the uncertainties of the flash flood system output we experiment with a dynamic region-growing algorithm. This automatically clusters regions of similar return period exceedence probabilities, thus presenting the at-risk areas at a spatial

Do regional weather models contribute to better wind power forecasts? A few Norwegian case studies

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bremnes, John Bjørnar; Giebel, Gregor

2017-01-01

resolution of this grid determines how accurate meteorological processes can be modeled and thereby also limits forecast quality. In this study, two global and four regional operational NWP models with spatial horizontal resolutions ranging from 1 to 32 km were applied to make wind power forecasts up to 66...

Use of data assimilation procedures in the meteorological pre-processors of decision support systems to improve the meteorological input of atmospheric dispersion models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kovalets, I.; Andronopoulos, S.; Bartzis, J.G.

2003-01-01

) and the variant of method of successive corrections called 'Iteration to optimal solution' (IOS). Though these methods are famous and were previously widely used in the meteorological synoptic- and meso-scale prognostic and diagnostic models, they were modified for the needs of the MPP of the RODOS system that acts as local (micro)-scale diagnostic model. The central point in that modification was the combination of approaches encountered in the literature for determination of the 'weighting coefficient' with the above-mentioned methods. Special attention was given at the adequate use of both observed and prognostic data (cloud cover, net radiation, sensible heat flux, mixing height) to calculate the parameters required by the ADMs of the RODOS system, such as stability category, net radiation, Monin-Obukhov length, friction velocity, mixing height. As the MPP is in fact a diagnostic model, the developed methodological approach is a 3-dimensional data assimilation (3DDA), i.e., observations are used only on the same time level as the NWP data to produce the state of the meteorological fields at that time moment. The European Tracer Experiment (ETEX) meteorological database has been used for evaluation of the developed methodology and software. The model results agree well with the measurements and the calculated values of the meteorological variables exhibit realistic behaviour, always lying in physically allowable bounds. IOS procedure can be effectively used for the local-scale calculations (domain size =∼ 100 km), while 0I method is better for larger scale calculations (domain size > 300 km). fig. 1 (author)

Impact of profile observations on the German Weather Service's NWP system

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alexander Cress

2001-04-01

Full Text Available In preparation for a study on the potential impact of a space-borne Doppler wind lidar on the quality of NWP products, a series of assimilations and forecasts were conducted to estimate the potential benefit of conventional wind and temperature profile measurements over North America to numerical weather forecasts for the Northern Hemisphere and specifically, Europe. A comparison of the forecast quality of a control run, using all available observations, to experiments omitting wind and temperature data from specific instruments (radiosondes, pilot stations and aircraft makes it possible to estimate the importance of the omitted data, and clarify whether winds derived from the geostrophic relation are sufficient or whether observed wind profiles result in a more realistic definition of the initial state for numerical weather prediction systems in the extra-tropic regions. Very little impact on forecast quality was noted when wind or temperature observations from radiosondes and pilots were excluded from the assimilation process. However, a clear deterioration in forecast quality was observed when additionally all available wind or temperature measurements from aircraft were also withheld. Comparisons of the relative utility of wind and temperature observations over North America show that assimilations and forecasts derive more benefit from wind data than from temperature data. The greatest deterioration could be observed if both wind and temperature observations were omitted from the assimilation cycle. By tracing the differences between the control forecasts and the experimental forecasts to their initial difference, the regions around Hudson Bay, Novia Scotia, Buffin Bay and Northern Canada could be identified as sensitive areas, i.e. those where a missing observation could have a substantial effect on the forecast for the Northern Hemisphere and Europe. Comparisons of the relative utility of radiosonde wind and temperature observations over

Combination of Deterministic and Probabilistic Meteorological Models to enhance Wind Farm Power Forecasts

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bremen, Lueder von

2007-01-01

Large-scale wind farms will play an important role in the future worldwide energy supply. However, with increasing wind power penetration all stakeholders on the electricity market will ask for more skilful wind power predictions regarding save grid integration and to increase the economic value of wind power. A Neural Network is used to calculate Model Output Statistics (MOS) for each individual forecast model (ECMWF and HIRLAM) and to model the aggregated power curve of the Middelgrunden offshore wind farm. We showed that the combination of two NWP models clearly outperforms the better single model. The normalized day-ahead RMSE forecast error for Middelgrunden can be reduced by 1% compared to single ECMWF. This is a relative improvement of 6%. For lead times >24h it is worthwhile to use a more sophisticated model combination approach than simple linear weighting. The investigated principle component regression is able to extract the uncorrelated information from two NWP forecasts. The spread of Ensemble Predictions is related to the skill of wind power forecasts. Simple contingency diagrams show that low spread corresponds is more often related to low forecast errors and high spread to large forecast errors

A global high-resolution model experiment on the predictability of the atmosphere

Science.gov (United States)

Judt, F.

2016-12-01

Forecasting high-impact weather phenomena is one of the most important aspects of numerical weather prediction (NWP). Over the last couple of years, a tremendous increase in computing power has facilitated the advent of global convection-resolving NWP models, which allow for the seamless prediction of weather from local to planetary scales. Unfortunately, the predictability of specific meteorological phenomena in these models is not very well known. This raises questions about which forecast problems are potentially tractable, and what is the value of global convection-resolving model predictions for the end user. To address this issue, we use the Yellowstone supercomputer to conduct a global high-resolution predictability experiment with the recently developed Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS). The computing power of Yellowstone enables the model to run at a globally uniform resolution of 4 km with 55 vertical levels (>2 billion grid cells). These simulations, which require 3 million core-hours for the entire experiment, allow for the explicit treatment of organized deep moist convection (i.e., thunderstorm systems). Resolving organized deep moist convection alleviates grave limitations of previous predictability studies, which either used high-resolution limited-area models or global simulations with coarser grids and cumulus parameterization. By computing the error growth characteristics in a set of "identical twin" model runs, the experiment will clarify the intrinsic predictability limits of atmospheric phenomena on a wide range of scales, from severe thunderstorms to global-scale wind patterns that affect the distribution of tropical rainfall. Although a major task by itself, this study is intended to be exploratory work for a future predictability experiment going beyond of what has so far been feasible. We hope to use CISL's new Cheyenne supercomputer to conduct a similar predictability experiments on a global mesh with 1-2 km resolution. This

Modelling the oil producers: Capturing oil industry knowledge in a behavioural simulation model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Morecroft, J.D.W.; Van der Heijden, K.A.J.M.

1992-01-01

A group of senior managers and planners from a major oil company met to discuss the changing structure of the oil industry with the purpose of improving group understanding of oil market behaviour for use in global scenarios. This broad ranging discussion led to a system dynamics simulation model of the oil producers. The model produced new insights into the power and stability of OPEC (the major oil producers' organization), the dynamic of oil prices, and the investment opportunities of non-OPEC producers. The paper traces the model development process, starting from group discussions and leading to working simulation models. Particular attention is paid to the methods used to capture team knowledge and to ensure that the computer models reflected opinions and ideas from the meetings. The paper describes how flip-chart diagrams were used to collect ideas about the logic of the principal producers' production decisions. A sub-group of the project team developed and tested an algebraic model. The paper shows partial model simulations used to build confidence and a sense of ownership in the algebraic formulations. Further simulations show how the full model can stimulate thinking about producers' behaviour and oil prices. The paper concludes with comments on the model building process. 11 figs., 37 refs

Evaluating the Impacts of NASA/SPoRT Daily Greenness Vegetation Fraction on Land Surface Model and Numerical Weather Forecasts

Science.gov (United States)

Bell, Jordan R.; Case, Jonathan L.; Molthan, Andrew L.

2011-01-01

The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center develops new products and techniques that can be used in operational meteorology. The majority of these products are derived from NASA polar-orbiting satellite imagery from the Earth Observing System (EOS) platforms. One such product is a Greenness Vegetation Fraction (GVF) dataset, which is produced from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data aboard the NASA EOS Aqua and Terra satellites. NASA SPoRT began generating daily real-time GVF composites at 1-km resolution over the Continental United States (CONUS) on 1 June 2010. The purpose of this study is to compare the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) climatology GVF product (currently used in operational weather models) to the SPoRT-MODIS GVF during June to October 2010. The NASA Land Information System (LIS) was employed to study the impacts of the new SPoRT-MODIS GVF dataset on land surface models apart from a full numerical weather prediction (NWP) model. For the 2010 warm season, the SPoRT GVF in the western portion of the CONUS was generally higher than the NCEP climatology. The eastern CONUS GVF had variations both above and below the climatology during the period of study. These variations in GVF led to direct impacts on the rates of heating and evaporation from the land surface. The second phase of the project is to examine the impacts of the SPoRT GVF dataset on NWP using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Two separate WRF model simulations were made for individual severe weather case days using the NCEP GVF (control) and SPoRT GVF (experimental), with all other model parameters remaining the same. Based on the sensitivity results in these case studies, regions with higher GVF in the SPoRT model runs had higher evapotranspiration and lower direct surface heating, which typically resulted in lower (higher) predicted 2-m temperatures (2-m dewpoint temperatures). The opposite was true

Rotational and divergent kinetic energy in the mesoscale model ALADIN

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

V. Blažica

2013-03-01

Full Text Available Kinetic energy spectra from the mesoscale numerical weather prediction (NWP model ALADIN with horizontal resolution 4.4 km are split into divergent and rotational components which are then compared at horizontal scales below 300 km and various vertical levels. It is shown that about 50% of kinetic energy in the free troposphere in ALADIN is divergent energy. The percentage increases towards 70% near the surface and in the upper troposphere towards 100 hPa. The maximal percentage of divergent energy is found at stratospheric levels around 100 hPa and at scales below 100 km which are not represented by the global models. At all levels, the divergent energy spectra are characterised by shallower slopes than the rotational energy spectra, and the difference increases as horizontal scales become larger. A very similar vertical distribution of divergent energy is obtained by using the standard ALADIN approach for the computation of spectra based on the extension zone and by applying detrending approach commonly used in mesoscale NWP community.

Performance analysis of NOAA tropospheric signal delay model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ibrahim, Hassan E; El-Rabbany, Ahmed

2011-01-01

Tropospheric delay is one of the dominant global positioning system (GPS) errors, which degrades the positioning accuracy. Recent development in tropospheric modeling relies on implementation of more accurate numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. In North America one of the NWP-based tropospheric correction models is the NOAA Tropospheric Signal Delay Model (NOAATrop), which was developed by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Because of its potential to improve the GPS positioning accuracy, the NOAATrop model became the focus of many researchers. In this paper, we analyzed the performance of the NOAATrop model and examined its effect on ionosphere-free-based precise point positioning (PPP) solution. We generated 3 year long tropospheric zenith total delay (ZTD) data series for the NOAATrop model, Hopfield model, and the International GNSS Services (IGS) final tropospheric correction product, respectively. These data sets were generated at ten IGS reference stations spanning Canada and the United States. We analyzed the NOAATrop ZTD data series and compared them with those of the Hopfield model. The IGS final tropospheric product was used as a reference. The analysis shows that the performance of the NOAATrop model is a function of both season (time of the year) and geographical location. However, its performance was superior to the Hopfield model in all cases. We further investigated the effect of implementing the NOAATrop model on the ionosphere-free-based PPP solution convergence and accuracy. It is shown that the use of the NOAATrop model improved the PPP solution convergence by 1%, 10% and 15% for the latitude, longitude and height components, respectively

Detailed modeling of mountain wave PSCs

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. Fueglistaler

2003-01-01

Full Text Available Polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs play a key role in polar ozone depletion. In the Arctic, PSCs can occur on the mesoscale due to orographically induced gravity waves. Here we present a detailed study of a mountain wave PSC event on 25-27 January 2000 over Scandinavia. The mountain wave PSCs were intensively observed by in-situ and remote-sensing techniques during the second phase of the SOLVE/THESEO-2000 Arctic campaign. We use these excellent data of PSC observations on 3 successive days to analyze the PSCs and to perform a detailed comparison with modeled clouds. We simulated the 3-dimensional PSC structure on all 3 days with a mesoscale numerical weather prediction (NWP model and a microphysical box model (using best available nucleation rates for ice and nitric acid trihydrate particles. We show that the combined mesoscale/microphysical model is capable of reproducing the PSC measurements within the uncertainty of data interpretation with respect to spatial dimensions, temporal development and microphysical properties, without manipulating temperatures or using other tuning parameters. In contrast, microphysical modeling based upon coarser scale global NWP data, e.g. current ECMWF analysis data, cannot reproduce observations, in particular the occurrence of ice and nitric acid trihydrate clouds. Combined mesoscale/microphysical modeling may be used for detailed a posteriori PSC analysis and for future Arctic campaign flight and mission planning. The fact that remote sensing alone cannot further constrain model results due to uncertainities in the interpretation of measurements, underlines the need for synchronous in-situ PSC observations in campaigns.

Skill Assessment of An Hybrid Technique To Estimate Quantitative Precipitation Forecast For Galicia (nw Spain)

Science.gov (United States)

Lage, A.; Taboada, J. J.

Precipitation is the most obvious of the weather elements in its effects on normal life. Numerical weather prediction (NWP) is generally used to produce quantitative precip- itation forecast (QPF) beyond the 1-3 h time frame. These models often fail to predict small-scale variations of rain because of spin-up problems and their coarse spatial and temporal resolution (Antolik, 2000). Moreover, there are some uncertainties about the behaviour of the NWP models in extreme situations (de Bruijn and Brandsma, 2000). Hybrid techniques, combining the benefits of NWP and statistical approaches in a flexible way, are very useful to achieve a good QPF. In this work, a new technique of QPF for Galicia (NW of Spain) is presented. This region has a percentage of rainy days per year greater than 50% with quantities that may cause floods, with human and economical damages. The technique is composed of a NWP model (ARPS) and a statistical downscaling process based on an automated classification scheme of at- mospheric circulation patterns for the Iberian Peninsula (J. Ribalaygua and R. Boren, 1995). Results show that QPF for Galicia is improved using this hybrid technique. [1] Antolik, M.S. 2000 "An Overview of the National Weather Service's centralized statistical quantitative precipitation forecasts". Journal of Hydrology, 239, pp:306- 337. [2] de Bruijn, E.I.F and T. Brandsma "Rainfall prediction for a flooding event in Ireland caused by the remnants of Hurricane Charley". Journal of Hydrology, 239, pp:148-161. [3] Ribalaygua, J. and Boren R. "Clasificación de patrones espaciales de precipitación diaria sobre la España Peninsular". Informes N 3 y 4 del Servicio de Análisis e Investigación del Clima. Instituto Nacional de Meteorología. Madrid. 53 pp.

Computational Modeling of Large Wildfires: A Roadmap

KAUST Repository

Coen, Janice L.

2010-08-01

Wildland fire behavior, particularly that of large, uncontrolled wildfires, has not been well understood or predicted. Our methodology to simulate this phenomenon uses high-resolution dynamic models made of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models coupled to fire behavior models to simulate fire behavior. NWP models are capable of modeling very high resolution (< 100 m) atmospheric flows. The wildland fire component is based upon semi-empirical formulas for fireline rate of spread, post-frontal heat release, and a canopy fire. The fire behavior is coupled to the atmospheric model such that low level winds drive the spread of the surface fire, which in turn releases sensible heat, latent heat, and smoke fluxes into the lower atmosphere, feeding back to affect the winds directing the fire. These coupled dynamic models capture the rapid spread downwind, flank runs up canyons, bifurcations of the fire into two heads, and rough agreement in area, shape, and direction of spread at periods for which fire location data is available. Yet, intriguing computational science questions arise in applying such models in a predictive manner, including physical processes that span a vast range of scales, processes such as spotting that cannot be modeled deterministically, estimating the consequences of uncertainty, the efforts to steer simulations with field data ("data assimilation"), lingering issues with short term forecasting of weather that may show skill only on the order of a few hours, and the difficulty of gathering pertinent data for verification and initialization in a dangerous environment. © 2010 IEEE.

A virtual climate library of surface temperature over North America for 1979–2015

Science.gov (United States)

Kravtsov, Sergey; Roebber, Paul; Brazauskas, Vytaras

2017-01-01

The most comprehensive continuous-coverage modern climatic data sets, known as reanalyses, come from combining state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction (NWP) models with diverse available observations. These reanalysis products estimate the path of climate evolution that actually happened, and their use in a probabilistic context—for example, to document trends in extreme events in response to climate change—is, therefore, limited. Free runs of NWP models without data assimilation can in principle be used for the latter purpose, but such simulations are computationally expensive and are prone to systematic biases. Here we produce a high-resolution, 100-member ensemble simulation of surface atmospheric temperature over North America for the 1979–2015 period using a comprehensive spatially extended non-stationary statistical model derived from the data based on the North American Regional Reanalysis. The surrogate climate realizations generated by this model are independent from, yet nearly statistically congruent with reality. This data set provides unique opportunities for the analysis of weather-related risk, with applications in agriculture, energy development, and protection of human life. PMID:29039842

A virtual climate library of surface temperature over North America for 1979-2015

Science.gov (United States)

Kravtsov, Sergey; Roebber, Paul; Brazauskas, Vytaras

2017-10-01

The most comprehensive continuous-coverage modern climatic data sets, known as reanalyses, come from combining state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction (NWP) models with diverse available observations. These reanalysis products estimate the path of climate evolution that actually happened, and their use in a probabilistic context—for example, to document trends in extreme events in response to climate change—is, therefore, limited. Free runs of NWP models without data assimilation can in principle be used for the latter purpose, but such simulations are computationally expensive and are prone to systematic biases. Here we produce a high-resolution, 100-member ensemble simulation of surface atmospheric temperature over North America for the 1979-2015 period using a comprehensive spatially extended non-stationary statistical model derived from the data based on the North American Regional Reanalysis. The surrogate climate realizations generated by this model are independent from, yet nearly statistically congruent with reality. This data set provides unique opportunities for the analysis of weather-related risk, with applications in agriculture, energy development, and protection of human life.

Assimilation of radar reflectivity into the LM COSMO model with a high horizontal resolution

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Sokol, Zbyněk; Řezáčová, Daniela

2006-01-01

Roč. 13, č. 4 (2006), s. 317-330 ISSN 1350-4827 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA205/04/0114 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z30420517 Keywords : precipitation forecast * assimilation * radar reflectivity * NWP model * local storm Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 0.453, year: 2006

Ensemble Data Assimilation of Photovoltaic Power Information in the Convection-permitting High-Resolution Model COSMO-DE

Science.gov (United States)

Declair, Stefan; Saint-Drenan, Yves-Marie; Potthast, Roland

2017-04-01

Determining the amount of weather dependent renewable energy is a demanding task for transmission system operators (TSOs) and wind and photovoltaic (PV) prediction errors require the use of reserve power, which generate costs and can - in extreme cases - endanger the security of supply. In the project EWeLiNE funded by the German government, the German Weather Service and the Fraunhofer Institute on Wind Energy and Energy System Technology develop innovative weather- and power forecasting models and tools for grid integration of weather dependent renewable energy. The key part in energy prediction process chains is the numerical weather prediction (NWP) system. Irradiation forecasts from NWP systems are however subject to several sources of error. For PV power prediction, weaknesses of the NWP model to correctly forecast i.e. low stratus, absorption of condensed water or aerosol optical depths are the main sources of errors. Inaccurate radiation schemes (i.e. the two-stream parametrization) are also known as a deficit of NWP systems with regard to irradiation forecast. To mitigate errors like these, latest observations can be used in a pre-processing technique called data assimilation (DA). In DA, not only the initial fields are provided, but the model is also synchronized with reality - the observations - and hence forecast errors are reduced. Besides conventional observation networks like radiosondes, synoptic observations or air reports of wind, pressure and humidity, the number of observations measuring meteorological information indirectly by means of remote sensing such as satellite radiances, radar reflectivities or GPS slant delays strongly increases. Numerous PV plants installed in Germany potentially represent a dense meteorological network assessing irradiation through their power measurements. Forecast accuracy may thus be enhanced by extending the observations in the assimilation by this new source of information. PV power plants can provide

Explicit simulation of ice particle habits in a Numerical Weather Prediction Model

Science.gov (United States)

Hashino, Tempei

2007-05-01

This study developed a scheme for explicit simulation of ice particle habits in Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) Models. The scheme is called Spectral Ice Habit Prediction System (SHIPS), and the goal is to retain growth history of ice particles in the Eulerian dynamics framework. It diagnoses characteristics of ice particles based on a series of particle property variables (PPVs) that reflect history of microphysieal processes and the transport between mass bins and air parcels in space. Therefore, categorization of ice particles typically used in bulk microphysical parameterization and traditional bin models is not necessary, so that errors that stem from the categorization can be avoided. SHIPS predicts polycrystals as well as hexagonal monocrystals based on empirically derived habit frequency and growth rate, and simulates the habit-dependent aggregation and riming processes by use of the stochastic collection equation with predicted PPVs. Idealized two dimensional simulations were performed with SHIPS in a NWP model. The predicted spatial distribution of ice particle habits and types, and evolution of particle size distributions showed good quantitative agreement with observation This comprehensive model of ice particle properties, distributions, and evolution in clouds can be used to better understand problems facing wide range of research disciplines, including microphysics processes, radiative transfer in a cloudy atmosphere, data assimilation, and weather modification.

Business Models and Producer-Owned Ventures: Choices, Challenges, and Changes

OpenAIRE

Kenkel, Philip L.; Park, John L.

2007-01-01

Producer-owned business models are rapidly evolving. Producer-owned, value-added ventures face a number of organizational challenges, including capital acquisition, security exchange registration, antitrust exemption, borrowing eligibility, and operational flexibility. This paper examines the success of evolving producer-owned business models in addressing these challenges. The need for uniform criteria to distinguish producer-owned business from other business forms throughout the complex st...

Evaluation of Dynamical Downscaling Resolution Effect on Wind Energy Forecast Value for a Wind Farm in Central Sweden

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rosgaard, Martin Haubjerg; Hahmann, Andrea N.; Nielsen, Torben Skov

2014-01-01

energy. The present study aims to quantify value added to wind energy forecasts in the 12-48 hour leadtime by downscaling global numerical weather prediction (NWP) data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Global Forecast System (GFS) using the limited-area NWP model described...

Modelling floods in the Ammer catchment: limitations and challenges with a coupled meteo-hydrological model approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

R. Ludwig

2003-01-01

Full Text Available Numerous applications of hydrological models have shown their capability to simulate hydrological processes with a reasonable degree of certainty. For flood modelling, the quality of precipitation data — the key input parameter — is very important but often remains questionable. This paper presents a critical review of experience in the EU-funded RAPHAEL project. Different meteorological data sources were evaluated to assess their applicability for flood modelling and forecasting in the Bavarian pre-alpine catchment of the Ammer river (709 km2, for which the hydrological aspects of runoff production are described as well as the complex nature of floods. Apart from conventional rain gauge data, forecasts from several Numerical Weather Prediction Models (NWP as well as rain radar data are examined, scaled and applied within the framework of a GIS-structured and physically based hydrological model. Multi-scenario results are compared and analysed. The synergetic approach leads to promising results under certain meteorological conditions but emphasises various drawbacks. At present, NWPs are the only source of rainfall forecasts (up to 96 hours with large spatial coverage and high temporal resolution. On the other hand, the coarse spatial resolution of NWP grids cannot yet address, adequately, the heterogeneous structures of orographic rainfields in complex convective situations; hence, a major downscaling problem for mountain catchment applications is introduced. As shown for two selected Ammer flood events, a high variability in prediction accuracy has still to be accepted at present. Sensitivity analysis of both meteo-data input and hydrological model performance in terms of process description are discussed and positive conclusions have been drawn for future applications of an advanced meteo-hydro model synergy. Keywords: RAPHAEL, modelling, forecasting, model coupling, PROMET-D, TOPMODEL

Monetary Shocks in Models with Inattentive Producers.

Science.gov (United States)

Alvarez, Fernando E; Lippi, Francesco; Paciello, Luigi

2016-04-01

We study models where prices respond slowly to shocks because firms are rationally inattentive. Producers must pay a cost to observe the determinants of the current profit maximizing price, and hence observe them infrequently. To generate large real effects of monetary shocks in such a model the time between observations must be long and/or highly volatile. Previous work on rational inattentiveness has allowed for observation intervals that are either constant-but-long ( e.g . Caballero, 1989 or Reis, 2006) or volatile-but-short ( e.g . Reis's, 2006 example where observation costs are negligible), but not both. In these models, the real effects of monetary policy are small for realistic values of the duration between observations. We show that non-negligible observation costs produce both of these effects: intervals between observations are infrequent and volatile. This generates large real effects of monetary policy for realistic values of the average time between observations.

Fast Physics Testbed for the FASTER Project

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lin, W.; Liu, Y.; Hogan, R.; Neggers, R.; Jensen, M.; Fridlind, A.; Lin, Y.; Wolf, A.

2010-03-15

This poster describes the Fast Physics Testbed for the new FAst-physics System Testbed and Research (FASTER) project. The overall objective is to provide a convenient and comprehensive platform for fast turn-around model evaluation against ARM observations and to facilitate development of parameterizations for cloud-related fast processes represented in global climate models. The testbed features three major components: a single column model (SCM) testbed, an NWP-Testbed, and high-resolution modeling (HRM). The web-based SCM-Testbed features multiple SCMs from major climate modeling centers and aims to maximize the potential of SCM approach to enhance and accelerate the evaluation and improvement of fast physics parameterizations through continuous evaluation of existing and evolving models against historical as well as new/improved ARM and other complementary measurements. The NWP-Testbed aims to capitalize on the large pool of operational numerical weather prediction products. Continuous evaluations of NWP forecasts against observations at ARM sites are carried out to systematically identify the biases and skills of physical parameterizations under all weather conditions. The highresolution modeling (HRM) activities aim to simulate the fast processes at high resolution to aid in the understanding of the fast processes and their parameterizations. A four-tier HRM framework is established to augment the SCM- and NWP-Testbeds towards eventual improvement of the parameterizations.

The HIRLAM fast radiation scheme for mesoscale numerical weather prediction models

Science.gov (United States)

Rontu, Laura; Gleeson, Emily; Räisänen, Petri; Pagh Nielsen, Kristian; Savijärvi, Hannu; Hansen Sass, Bent

2017-07-01

This paper provides an overview of the HLRADIA shortwave (SW) and longwave (LW) broadband radiation schemes used in the HIRLAM numerical weather prediction (NWP) model and available in the HARMONIE-AROME mesoscale NWP model. The advantage of broadband, over spectral, schemes is that they can be called more frequently within the model, without compromising on computational efficiency. In mesoscale models fast interactions between clouds and radiation and the surface and radiation can be of greater importance than accounting for the spectral details of clear-sky radiation; thus calling the routines more frequently can be of greater benefit than the deterioration due to loss of spectral details. Fast but physically based radiation parametrizations are expected to be valuable for high-resolution ensemble forecasting, because as well as the speed of their execution, they may provide realistic physical perturbations. Results from single-column diagnostic experiments based on CIRC benchmark cases and an evaluation of 10 years of radiation output from the FMI operational archive of HIRLAM forecasts indicate that HLRADIA performs sufficiently well with respect to the clear-sky downwelling SW and longwave LW fluxes at the surface. In general, HLRADIA tends to overestimate surface fluxes, with the exception of LW fluxes under cold and dry conditions. The most obvious overestimation of the surface SW flux was seen in the cloudy cases in the 10-year comparison; this bias may be related to using a cloud inhomogeneity correction, which was too large. According to the CIRC comparisons, the outgoing LW and SW fluxes at the top of atmosphere are mostly overestimated by HLRADIA and the net LW flux is underestimated above clouds. The absorption of SW radiation by the atmosphere seems to be underestimated and LW absorption seems to be overestimated. Despite these issues, the overall results are satisfying and work on the improvement of HLRADIA for the use in HARMONIE-AROME NWP system

Forecasting winds over nuclear power plants statistics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Marais, Ch.

1997-01-01

In the event of an accident at nuclear power plant, it is essential to forecast the wind velocity at the level where the efflux occurs (about 100 m). At present meteorologists refine the wind forecast from the coarse grid of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. The purpose of this study is to improve the forecasts by developing a statistical adaptation method which corrects the NWP forecasts by using statistical comparisons between wind forecasts and observations. The Multiple Linear Regression method is used here to forecast the 100 m wind at 12 and 24 hours range for three Electricite de France (EDF) sites. It turns out that this approach gives better forecasts than the NWP model alone and is worthy of operational use. (author)

Radar-driven High-resolution Hydrometeorological Forecasts of the 26 September 2007 Venice flash flood

Science.gov (United States)

Massimo Rossa, Andrea; Laudanna Del Guerra, Franco; Borga, Marco; Zanon, Francesco; Settin, Tommaso; Leuenberger, Daniel

2010-05-01

Space and time scales of flash floods are such that flash flood forecasting and warning systems depend upon the accurate real-time provision of rainfall information, high-resolution numerical weather prediction (NWP) forecasts and the use of hydrological models. Currently available high-resolution NWP model models can potentially provide warning forecasters information on the future evolution of storms and their internal structure, thereby increasing convective-scale warning lead times. However, it is essential that the model be started with a very accurate representation of on-going convection, which calls for assimilation of high-resolution rainfall data. This study aims to assess the feasibility of using carefully checked radar-derived quantitative precipitation estimates (QPE) for assimilation into NWP and hydrological models. The hydrometeorological modeling chain includes the convection-permitting NWP model COSMO-2 and a hydrologic-hydraulic models built upon the concept of geomorphological transport. Radar rainfall observations are assimilated into the NWP model via the latent heat nudging method. The study is focused on 26 September 2007 extreme flash flood event which impacted the coastal area of north-eastern Italy around Venice. The hydro-meteorological modeling system is implemented over the Dese river, a 90 km2 catchment flowing to the Venice lagoon. The radar rainfall observations are carefully checked for artifacts, including beam attenuation, by means of physics-based correction procedures and comparison with a dense network of raingauges. The impact of the radar QPE in the assimilation cycle of the NWP model is very significant, in that the main individual organized convective systems were successfully introduced into the model state, both in terms of timing and localization. Also, incorrectly localized precipitation in the model reference run without rainfall assimilation was correctly reduced to about the observed levels. On the other hand, the

Emissions Models and Other Methods to Produce Emission Inventories

Science.gov (United States)

An emissions inventory is a summary or forecast of the emissions produced by a group of sources in a given time period. Inventories of air pollution from mobile sources are often produced by models such as the MOtor Vehicle Emission Simulator (MOVES).

A virtual climate library of surface temperature over North America for 1979–2015

OpenAIRE

Kravtsov, Sergey; Roebber, Paul; Brazauskas, Vytaras

2017-01-01

The most comprehensive continuous-coverage modern climatic data sets, known as reanalyses, come from combining state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction (NWP) models with diverse available observations. These reanalysis products estimate the path of climate evolution that actually happened, and their use in a probabilistic context—for example, to document trends in extreme events in response to climate change—is, therefore, limited. Free runs of NWP models without data assimilation can in...

Single-footprint retrievals for AIRS using a fast TwoSlab cloud-representation model and the SARTA all-sky infrared radiative transfer algorithm

Science.gov (United States)

DeSouza-Machado, Sergio; Larrabee Strow, L.; Tangborn, Andrew; Huang, Xianglei; Chen, Xiuhong; Liu, Xu; Wu, Wan; Yang, Qiguang

2018-01-01

One-dimensional variational retrievals of temperature and moisture fields from hyperspectral infrared (IR) satellite sounders use cloud-cleared radiances (CCRs) as their observation. These derived observations allow the use of clear-sky-only radiative transfer in the inversion for geophysical variables but at reduced spatial resolution compared to the native sounder observations. Cloud clearing can introduce various errors, although scenes with large errors can be identified and ignored. Information content studies show that, when using multilayer cloud liquid and ice profiles in infrared hyperspectral radiative transfer codes, there are typically only 2-4 degrees of freedom (DOFs) of cloud signal. This implies a simplified cloud representation is sufficient for some applications which need accurate radiative transfer. Here we describe a single-footprint retrieval approach for clear and cloudy conditions, which uses the thermodynamic and cloud fields from numerical weather prediction (NWP) models as a first guess, together with a simple cloud-representation model coupled to a fast scattering radiative transfer algorithm (RTA). The NWP model thermodynamic and cloud profiles are first co-located to the observations, after which the N-level cloud profiles are converted to two slab clouds (TwoSlab; typically one for ice and one for water clouds). From these, one run of our fast cloud-representation model allows an improvement of the a priori cloud state by comparing the observed and model-simulated radiances in the thermal window channels. The retrieval yield is over 90 %, while the degrees of freedom correlate with the observed window channel brightness temperature (BT) which itself depends on the cloud optical depth. The cloud-representation and scattering package is benchmarked against radiances computed using a maximum random overlap (RMO) cloud scheme. All-sky infrared radiances measured by NASA's Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) and NWP thermodynamic and cloud

Single-footprint retrievals for AIRS using a fast TwoSlab cloud-representation model and the SARTA all-sky infrared radiative transfer algorithm

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. DeSouza-Machado

2018-01-01

Full Text Available One-dimensional variational retrievals of temperature and moisture fields from hyperspectral infrared (IR satellite sounders use cloud-cleared radiances (CCRs as their observation. These derived observations allow the use of clear-sky-only radiative transfer in the inversion for geophysical variables but at reduced spatial resolution compared to the native sounder observations. Cloud clearing can introduce various errors, although scenes with large errors can be identified and ignored. Information content studies show that, when using multilayer cloud liquid and ice profiles in infrared hyperspectral radiative transfer codes, there are typically only 2–4 degrees of freedom (DOFs of cloud signal. This implies a simplified cloud representation is sufficient for some applications which need accurate radiative transfer. Here we describe a single-footprint retrieval approach for clear and cloudy conditions, which uses the thermodynamic and cloud fields from numerical weather prediction (NWP models as a first guess, together with a simple cloud-representation model coupled to a fast scattering radiative transfer algorithm (RTA. The NWP model thermodynamic and cloud profiles are first co-located to the observations, after which the N-level cloud profiles are converted to two slab clouds (TwoSlab; typically one for ice and one for water clouds. From these, one run of our fast cloud-representation model allows an improvement of the a priori cloud state by comparing the observed and model-simulated radiances in the thermal window channels. The retrieval yield is over 90 %, while the degrees of freedom correlate with the observed window channel brightness temperature (BT which itself depends on the cloud optical depth. The cloud-representation and scattering package is benchmarked against radiances computed using a maximum random overlap (RMO cloud scheme. All-sky infrared radiances measured by NASA's Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS and NWP

Parameterizing Subgrid-Scale Orographic Drag in the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) Atmospheric Model

Science.gov (United States)

Toy, M. D.; Olson, J.; Kenyon, J.; Smirnova, T. G.; Brown, J. M.

2017-12-01

The accuracy of wind forecasts in numerical weather prediction (NWP) models is improved when the drag forces imparted on atmospheric flow by subgrid-scale orography are included. Without such parameterizations, only the terrain resolved by the model grid, along with the small-scale obstacles parameterized by the roughness lengths can have an effect on the flow. This neglects the impacts of subgrid-scale terrain variations, which typically leads to wind speeds that are too strong. Using statistical information about the subgrid-scale orography, such as the mean and variance of the topographic height within a grid cell, the drag forces due to flow blocking, gravity wave drag, and turbulent form drag are estimated and distributed vertically throughout the grid cell column. We recently implemented the small-scale gravity wave drag paramterization of Steeneveld et al. (2008) and Tsiringakis et al. (2017) for stable planetary boundary layers, and the turbulent form drag parameterization of Beljaars et al. (2004) in the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) NWP model developed at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). As a result, a high surface wind speed bias in the model has been reduced and small improvement to the maintenance of stable layers has also been found. We present the results of experiments with the subgrid-scale orographic drag parameterization for the regional HRRR model, as well as for a global model in development at NOAA, showing the direct and indirect impacts.

A Scalable Version of the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System Spectral Forecast Model

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Thomas E. Rosmond

2000-01-01

Full Text Available The Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS includes a state-of-the-art spectral forecast model similar to models run at several major operational numerical weather prediction (NWP centers around the world. The model, developed by the Naval Research Laboratory (NRL in Monterey, California, has run operational at the Fleet Numerical Meteorological and Oceanographic Center (FNMOC since 1982, and most recently is being run on a Cray C90 in a multi-tasked configuration. Typically the multi-tasked code runs on 10 to 15 processors with overall parallel efficiency of about 90%. resolution is T159L30, but other operational and research applications run at significantly lower resolutions. A scalable NOGAPS forecast model has been developed by NRL in anticipation of a FNMOC C90 replacement in about 2001, as well as for current NOGAPS research requirements to run on DOD High-Performance Computing (HPC scalable systems. The model is designed to run with message passing (MPI. Model design criteria include bit reproducibility for different processor numbers and reasonably efficient performance on fully shared memory, distributed memory, and distributed shared memory systems for a wide range of model resolutions. Results for a wide range of processor numbers, model resolutions, and different vendor architectures are presented. Single node performance has been disappointing on RISC based systems, at least compared to vector processor performance. This is a common complaint, and will require careful re-examination of traditional numerical weather prediction (NWP model software design and data organization to fully exploit future scalable architectures.

A gain-loss framework based on ensemble flow forecasts to switch the urban drainage-wastewater system management towards energy optimization during dry periods

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Courdent, V.; Grum, M.; Munk-Nielsen, T.

2017-01-01

). The specificity of this study is to optimize the energy consumption in IUDWS during low-flow periods by exploiting the electrical smart grid market (i.e. the actions are taken when no events are forecast). Furthermore, the results demonstrate the benefit of NWP neighbourhood post-processing methods to enhance......Precipitation is the cause of major perturbation to the flow in urban drainage and wastewater systems. Flow forecasts, generated by coupling rainfall predictions with a hydrologic runoff model, can potentially be used to optimize the operation of integrated urban drainage-wastewater systems (IUDWSs......) during both wet and dry weather periods. Numerical weather prediction (NWP) models have significantly improved in recent years, having increased their spatial and temporal resolution. Finer resolution NWP are suitable for urban-catchment-scale applications, providing longer lead time than radar...

Parameterisation of sea and lake ice in numerical weather prediction models of the German Weather Service

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Dmitrii Mironov

2012-04-01

Full Text Available A bulk thermodynamic (no rheology sea-ice parameterisation scheme for use in numerical weather prediction (NWP is presented. The scheme is based on a self-similar parametric representation (assumed shape of the evolving temperature profile within the ice and on the integral heat budget of the ice slab. The scheme carries ordinary differential equations (in time for the ice surface temperature and the ice thickness. The proposed sea-ice scheme is implemented into the NWP models GME (global and COSMO (limited-area of the German Weather Service. In the present operational configuration, the horizontal distribution of the sea ice is governed by the data assimilation scheme, no fractional ice cover within the GME/COSMO grid box is considered, and the effect of snow above the ice is accounted for through an empirical temperature dependence of the ice surface albedo with respect to solar radiation. The lake ice is treated similarly to the sea ice, except that freeze-up and break-up of lakes occurs freely, independent of the data assimilation. The sea and lake ice schemes (the latter is a part of the fresh-water lake parameterisation scheme FLake show a satisfactory performance in GME and COSMO. The ice characteristics are not overly sensitive to the details of the treatment of heat transfer through the ice layer. This justifies the use of a simplified but computationally efficient bulk approach to model the ice thermodynamics in NWP, where the ice surface temperature is a major concern whereas details of the temperature distribution within the ice are of secondary importance. In contrast to the details of the heat transfer through the ice, the cloud cover is of decisive importance for the ice temperature as it controls the radiation energy budget at the ice surface. This is particularly true for winter, when the long-wave radiation dominates the surface energy budget. During summer, the surface energy budget is also sensitive to the grid-box mean ice

Improved scheme for parametrization of convection in the Met Office's Numerical Atmospheric-dispersion Modelling Environment (NAME)

Science.gov (United States)

Meneguz, Elena; Thomson, David; Witham, Claire; Kusmierczyk-Michulec, Jolanta

2015-04-01

NAME is a Lagrangian atmospheric dispersion model used by the Met Office to predict the dispersion of both natural and man-made contaminants in the atmosphere, e.g. volcanic ash, radioactive particles and chemical species. Atmospheric convection is responsible for transport and mixing of air resulting in a large exchange of heat and energy above the boundary layer. Although convection can transport material through the whole troposphere, convective clouds have a small horizontal length scale (of the order of few kilometres). Therefore, for large-scale transport the horizontal scale on which the convection exists is below the global NWP resolution used as input to NAME and convection must be parametrized. Prior to the work presented here, the enhanced vertical mixing generated by non-resolved convection was reproduced by randomly redistributing Lagrangian particles between the cloud base and cloud top with probability equal to 1/25th of the NWP predicted convective cloud fraction. Such a scheme is essentially diffusive and it does not make optimal use of all the information provided by the driving meteorological model. To make up for these shortcomings and make the parametrization more physically based, the convection scheme has been recently revised. The resulting version, presented in this paper, is now based on the balance equation between upward, entrainment and detrainment fluxes. In particular, upward mass fluxes are calculated with empirical formulas derived from Cloud Resolving Models and using the NWP convective precipitation diagnostic as closure. The fluxes are used to estimate how many particles entrain, move upward and detrain. Lastly, the scheme is completed by applying a compensating subsidence flux. The performance of the updated convection scheme is benchmarked against available observational data of passive tracers. In particular, radioxenon is a noble gas that can undergo significant long range transport: this study makes use of observations of

A simple nudging scheme to assimilate ASCAT soil moisture data in the WRF model

Science.gov (United States)

Capecchi, V.; Gozzini, B.

2012-04-01

The present work shows results obtained in a numerical experiment using the WRF (Weather and Research Forecasting, www.wrf-model.org) model. A control run where soil moisture is constrained by GFS global analysis is compared with a test run where soil moisture analysis is obtained via a simple nudging scheme using ASCAT data. The basic idea of the assimilation scheme is to "nudge" the first level (0-10 cm below ground in NOAH model) of volumetric soil moisture of the first-guess (say θ(b,1) derived from global model) towards the ASCAT derived value (say ^θ A). The soil moisture analysis θ(a,1) is given by: { θ + K (^θA - θ ) l = 1 θ(a,1) = θ(b,l) (b,l) l > 1 (b,l) (1) where l is the model soil level. K is a constant scalar value that is user specified and in this study it is equal to 0.2 (same value as in similar studies). Soil moisture is critical for estimating latent and sensible heat fluxes as well as boundary layer structure. This parameter is, however, poorly assimilated in current global and regional numerical models since no extensive soil moisture observation network exists. Remote sensing technologies offer a synoptic view of the dynamics and spatial distribution of soil moisture with a frequent temporal coverage and with a horizontal resolution similar to mesoscale NWP model. Several studies have shown that measurements of normalized backscatter (surface soil wetness) from the Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT) operating at microwave frequencies and boarded on the meteorological operational (Metop) satellite, offer quality information about surface soil moisture. Recently several studies deal with the implementation of simple assimilation procedures (nudging, Extended Kalman Filter, etc...) to integrate ASCAT data in NWP models. They found improvements in screen temperature predictions, particularly in areas such as North-America and in the Tropics, where it is strong the land-atmosphere coupling. The ECMWF (Newsletter No. 127) is currently

Ground-based remote sensing profiling and numerical weather prediction model to manage nuclear power plants meteorological surveillance in Switzerland

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

B. Calpini

2011-08-01

Full Text Available The meteorological surveillance of the four nuclear power plants in Switzerland is of first importance in a densely populated area such as the Swiss Plateau. The project "Centrales Nucléaires et Météorologie" CN-MET aimed at providing a new security tool based on one hand on the development of a high resolution numerical weather prediction (NWP model. The latter is providing essential nowcasting information in case of a radioactive release from a nuclear power plant in Switzerland. On the other hand, the model input over the Swiss Plateau is generated by a dedicated network of surface and upper air observations including remote sensing instruments (wind profilers and temperature/humidity passive microwave radiometers. This network is built upon three main sites ideally located for measuring the inflow/outflow and central conditions of the main wind field in the planetary boundary layer over the Swiss Plateau, as well as a number of surface automatic weather stations (AWS. The network data are assimilated in real-time into the fine grid NWP model using a rapid update cycle of eight runs per day (one forecast every three hours. This high resolution NWP model has replaced the former security tool based on in situ observations (in particular one meteorological mast at each of the power plants and a local dispersion model. It is used to forecast the dynamics of the atmosphere in the planetary boundary layer (typically the first 4 km above ground layer and over a time scale of 24 h. This tool provides at any time (e.g. starting at the initial time of a nuclear power plant release the best picture of the 24-h evolution of the air mass over the Swiss Plateau and furthermore generates the input data (in the form of simulated values substituting in situ observations required for the local dispersion model used at each of the nuclear power plants locations. This paper is presenting the concept and two validation studies as well as the results of an

Analysis and Forecast of a Tornadic Thunderstorm Using Multiple Doppler Radar Data, 3DVAR, and ARPS Model

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Edward Natenberg

2013-01-01

Full Text Available A three-dimensional variational (3DVAR assimilation technique developed for a convective-scale NWP model—advanced regional prediction system (ARPS—is used to analyze the 8 May 2003, Moore/Midwest City, Oklahoma tornadic supercell thunderstorm. Previous studies on this case used only one or two radars that are very close to this storm. However, three other radars observed the upper-level part of the storm. Because these three radars are located far away from the targeted storm, they were overlooked by previous studies. High-frequency intermittent 3DVAR analyses are performed using the data from five radars that together provide a more complete picture of this storm. The analyses capture a well-defined mesocyclone in the midlevels and the wind circulation associated with a hook-shaped echo. The analyses produced through this technique are used as initial conditions for a 40-minute storm-scale forecast. The impact of multiple radars on a short-term NWP forecast is most evident when compared to forecasts using data from only one and two radars. The use of all radars provides the best forecast in which a strong low-level mesocyclone develops and tracks in close proximity to the actual tornado damage path.

Representation of tropical deep convection in atmospheric models – Part 2: Tracer transport

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C. R. Hoyle

2011-08-01

Full Text Available The tropical transport processes of 14 different models or model versions were compared, within the framework of the SCOUT-O3 (Stratospheric-Climate Links with Emphasis on the Upper Troposphere and Lower Stratosphere project. The tested models range from the regional to the global scale, and include numerical weather prediction (NWP, chemical transport, and chemistry-climate models. Idealised tracers were used in order to prevent the model's chemistry schemes from influencing the results substantially, so that the effects of modelled transport could be isolated. We find large differences in the vertical transport of very short-lived tracers (with a lifetime of 6 h within the tropical troposphere. Peak convective outflow altitudes range from around 300 hPa to almost 100 hPa among the different models, and the upper tropospheric tracer mixing ratios differ by up to an order of magnitude. The timing of convective events is found to be different between the models, even among those which source their forcing data from the same NWP model (ECMWF. The differences are less pronounced for longer lived tracers, however they could have implications for modelling the halogen burden of the lowermost stratosphere through transport of species such as bromoform, or short-lived hydrocarbons into the lowermost stratosphere. The modelled tracer profiles are strongly influenced by the convective transport parameterisations, and different boundary layer mixing parameterisations also have a large impact on the modelled tracer profiles. Preferential locations for rapid transport from the surface into the upper troposphere are similar in all models, and are mostly concentrated over the western Pacific, the Maritime Continent and the Indian Ocean. In contrast, models do not indicate that upward transport is highest over western Africa.

Probabilistic forecasting of shallow, rainfall-triggered landslides using real-time numerical weather predictions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. Schmidt

2008-04-01

Full Text Available A project established at the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA in New Zealand is aimed at developing a prototype of a real-time landslide forecasting system. The objective is to predict temporal changes in landslide probability for shallow, rainfall-triggered landslides, based on quantitative weather forecasts from numerical weather prediction models. Global weather forecasts from the United Kingdom Met Office (MO Numerical Weather Prediction model (NWP are coupled with a regional data assimilating NWP model (New Zealand Limited Area Model, NZLAM to forecast atmospheric variables such as precipitation and temperature up to 48 h ahead for all of New Zealand. The weather forecasts are fed into a hydrologic model to predict development of soil moisture and groundwater levels. The forecasted catchment-scale patterns in soil moisture and soil saturation are then downscaled using topographic indices to predict soil moisture status at the local scale, and an infinite slope stability model is applied to determine the triggering soil water threshold at a local scale. The model uses uncertainty of soil parameters to produce probabilistic forecasts of spatio-temporal landslide occurrence 48~h ahead. The system was evaluated for a damaging landslide event in New Zealand. Comparison with landslide densities estimated from satellite imagery resulted in hit rates of 70–90%.

Modelling derecho dynamics and the direct radiative effect of wildfire smoke upon it with NWP model HARMONIE

Science.gov (United States)

Toll, Velle; Männik, Aarne

2014-05-01

Convection permitting numerical weather prediction model HARMONIE was used to simulate the dynamics of the derecho that swept over Eastern Europe on August 8, 2010. The storm moved over Belarus, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia and Finland and the strongest wind gusts (up to 36.5 m/s) were measured in Estonia. The storm path is recorded on the radar images where characteristic bow echo was observed. The model setup was similar to near-future operational, nearly kilometre-scale environments in European national weather services. Hindcast experiments show the ability of the HARMONIE model to predict the severe convective storm and forecast concurrent strong wind gusts. Wind gusts with very similar intensity to observed ones were simulated by the HARMONIE model and 2.5-km horizontal resolution appears sufficient for reliable forecast of the derecho event. The timing of the modelled storm was in good agreement with the observations. The simulated average storm propagation speed was 25 m/s, similar to the radar observations. Hindcast experiments suggest that more precise warning for the storm could have been issued if the HARMONIE model would have been utilised. The derecho event was accompanied by the remarkable smoke aerosol concentrations (maximum total aerosol optical depth more than 4 at 550 nm) originating from the wildfires from Russia. Smoke plume travelled clockwise around Moscow from August 5 to 9. On August 8, 2010, smoke plume was situated on the Eastern border of Estonia. The derecho occurred on the western side of the smoke plume path. HARMONIE experiments were performed to study the direct radiative effect of wildfire smoke on a severe convective storm. The impact of smoke aerosol on the derecho dynamics was investigated. Reduction in the shortwave radiation flux at the surface resulting from aerosol influence simulated by the HARMONIE model is up to 200 W/m2 in the area with the highest aerosol concentrations. This causes near surface cooling of up to 3 º

A novel methodology to model the cooling processes of packed horticultural produce using 3D shape models

Science.gov (United States)

Gruyters, Willem; Verboven, Pieter; Rogge, Seppe; Vanmaercke, Simon; Ramon, Herman; Nicolai, Bart

2017-10-01

Freshly harvested horticultural produce require a proper temperature management to maintain their high economic value. Towards this end, low temperature storage is of crucial importance to maintain a high product quality. Optimizing both the package design of packed produce and the different steps in the postharvest cold chain can be achieved by numerical modelling of the relevant transport phenomena. This work presents a novel methodology to accurately model both the random filling of produce in a package and the subsequent cooling process. First, a cultivar-specific database of more than 100 realistic CAD models of apple and pear fruit is built with a validated geometrical 3D shape model generator. To have an accurate representation of a realistic picking season, the model generator also takes into account the biological variability of the produce shape. Next, a discrete element model (DEM) randomly chooses surface meshed bodies from the database to simulate the gravitational filling process of produce in a box or bin, using actual mechanical properties of the fruit. A computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model is then developed with the final stacking arrangement of the produce to study the cooling efficiency of packages under several conditions and configurations. Here, a typical precooling operation is simulated to demonstrate the large differences between using actual 3D shapes of the fruit and an equivalent spheres approach that simplifies the problem drastically. From this study, it is concluded that using a simplified representation of the actual fruit shape may lead to a severe overestimation of the cooling behaviour.

The Global Modeling Test Bed - Building a New National Capability for Advancing Operational Global Modeling in the United States.

Science.gov (United States)

Toepfer, F.; Cortinas, J. V., Jr.; Kuo, W.; Tallapragada, V.; Stajner, I.; Nance, L. B.; Kelleher, K. E.; Firl, G.; Bernardet, L.

2017-12-01

NOAA develops, operates, and maintains an operational global modeling capability for weather, sub seasonal and seasonal prediction for the protection of life and property and fostering the US economy. In order to substantially improve the overall performance and accelerate advancements of the operational modeling suite, NOAA is partnering with NCAR to design and build the Global Modeling Test Bed (GMTB). The GMTB has been established to provide a platform and a capability for researchers to contribute to the advancement primarily through the development of physical parameterizations needed to improve operational NWP. The strategy to achieve this goal relies on effectively leveraging global expertise through a modern collaborative software development framework. This framework consists of a repository of vetted and supported physical parameterizations known as the Common Community Physics Package (CCPP), a common well-documented interface known as the Interoperable Physics Driver (IPD) for combining schemes into suites and for their configuration and connection to dynamic cores, and an open evidence-based governance process for managing the development and evolution of CCPP. In addition, a physics test harness designed to work within this framework has been established in order to facilitate easier like-to-like comparison of physics advancements. This paper will present an overview of the design of the CCPP and test platform. Additionally, an overview of potential new opportunities of how physics developers can engage in the process, from implementing code for CCPP/IPD compliance to testing their development within an operational-like software environment, will be presented. In addition, insight will be given as to how development gets elevated to CPPP-supported status, the pre-cursor to broad availability and use within operational NWP. An overview of how the GMTB can be expanded to support other global or regional modeling capabilities will also be presented.

A time-spectral approach to numerical weather prediction

Science.gov (United States)

Scheffel, Jan; Lindvall, Kristoffer; Yik, Hiu Fai

2018-05-01

Finite difference methods are traditionally used for modelling the time domain in numerical weather prediction (NWP). Time-spectral solution is an attractive alternative for reasons of accuracy and efficiency and because time step limitations associated with causal CFL-like criteria, typical for explicit finite difference methods, are avoided. In this work, the Lorenz 1984 chaotic equations are solved using the time-spectral algorithm GWRM (Generalized Weighted Residual Method). Comparisons of accuracy and efficiency are carried out for both explicit and implicit time-stepping algorithms. It is found that the efficiency of the GWRM compares well with these methods, in particular at high accuracy. For perturbative scenarios, the GWRM was found to be as much as four times faster than the finite difference methods. A primary reason is that the GWRM time intervals typically are two orders of magnitude larger than those of the finite difference methods. The GWRM has the additional advantage to produce analytical solutions in the form of Chebyshev series expansions. The results are encouraging for pursuing further studies, including spatial dependence, of the relevance of time-spectral methods for NWP modelling.

Interactions between milk protein ingredients and other milk components during processing

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Liu, Guanchen

research in our group shown that, both MWP and NWP can give a higher viscosity and denser microstructure compared to WPC when used as fat replacer in low-fat yoghurt. In the thesis, we investigated how these two types of commercial whey protein particles interact with other milk components and how...... these interactions affect final acidified milk products. By detecting the properties of the whey protein aggregates, MWP and NWP showed low native whey protein content, low free thiol content and high surface hydrophobicity and were relatively stable at high temperature in the 5 % pure dispersions. When MWP and NWP...... were added to non-fat milk model systems (5% protein in total) and processed into chemically (glucono-delta-lactone) acidified milk gels, the formation of disulfide-linked structures was closely related to the increased particle size of heated milk model systems and the rheological behavior...

A Monte Carlo model to produce baryons in e+e- annihilation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Meyer, T.

1981-08-01

A simple model is described extending the Field-Feynman model to baryon production in quark fragmentation. The model predicts baryon baryon correlations within jets and in opposite jets produced in electron-positron annihilation. Existing data is well described by the model. (orig.)

Development and evaluation of an empirical diurnal sea surface temperature model

Science.gov (United States)

Weihs, R. R.; Bourassa, M. A.

2013-12-01

An innovative method is developed to determine the diurnal heating amplitude of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) using observations of high-quality satellite SST measurements and NWP atmospheric meteorological data. The diurnal cycle results from heating that develops at the surface of the ocean from low mechanical or shear produced turbulence and large solar radiation absorption. During these typically calm weather conditions, the absorption of solar radiation causes heating of the upper few meters of the ocean, which become buoyantly stable; this heating causes a temperature differential between the surface and the mixed [or bulk] layer on the order of a few degrees. It has been shown that capturing the diurnal cycle is important for a variety of applications, including surface heat flux estimates, which have been shown to be underestimated when neglecting diurnal warming, and satellite and buoy calibrations, which can be complicated because of the heating differential. An empirical algorithm using a pre-dawn sea surface temperature, peak solar radiation, and accumulated wind stress is used to estimate the cycle. The empirical algorithm is derived from a multistep process in which SSTs from MTG's SEVIRI SST experimental hourly data set are combined with hourly wind stress fields derived from a bulk flux algorithm. Inputs for the flux model are taken from NASA's MERRA reanalysis product. NWP inputs are necessary because the inputs need to incorporate diurnal and air-sea interactive processes, which are vital to the ocean surface dynamics, with a high enough temporal resolution. The MERRA winds are adjusted with CCMP winds to obtain more realistic spatial and variance characteristics and the other atmospheric inputs (air temperature, specific humidity) are further corrected on the basis of in situ comparisons. The SSTs are fitted to a Gaussian curve (using one or two peaks), forming a set of coefficients used to fit the data. The coefficient data are combined with

Evaluating the Impacts of NASA/SPoRT Daily Greenness Vegetation Fraction on Land Surface Model and Numerical Weather Forecasts

Science.gov (United States)

Bell, Jordan R.; Case, Jonathan L.; LaFontaine, Frank J.; Kumar, Sujay V.

2012-01-01

The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center has developed a Greenness Vegetation Fraction (GVF) dataset, which is updated daily using swaths of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data aboard the NASA EOS Aqua and Terra satellites. NASA SPoRT began generating daily real-time GVF composites at 1-km resolution over the Continental United States (CONUS) on 1 June 2010. The purpose of this study is to compare the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) climatology GVF product (currently used in operational weather models) to the SPoRT-MODIS GVF during June to October 2010. The NASA Land Information System (LIS) was employed to study the impacts of the SPoRT-MODIS GVF dataset on a land surface model (LSM) apart from a full numerical weather prediction (NWP) model. For the 2010 warm season, the SPoRT GVF in the western portion of the CONUS was generally higher than the NCEP climatology. The eastern CONUS GVF had variations both above and below the climatology during the period of study. These variations in GVF led to direct impacts on the rates of heating and evaporation from the land surface. In the West, higher latent heat fluxes prevailed, which enhanced the rates of evapotranspiration and soil moisture depletion in the LSM. By late Summer and Autumn, both the average sensible and latent heat fluxes increased in the West as a result of the more rapid soil drying and higher coverage of GVF. The impacts of the SPoRT GVF dataset on NWP was also examined for a single severe weather case study using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Two separate coupled LIS/WRF model simulations were made for the 17 July 2010 severe weather event in the Upper Midwest using the NCEP and SPoRT GVFs, with all other model parameters remaining the same. Based on the sensitivity results, regions with higher GVF in the SPoRT model runs had higher evapotranspiration and

Development of a Three-Dimensional Spectral Element Model for NWP: Idealized Simulations on the Sphere

Science.gov (United States)

Viner, K.; Reinecke, P. A.; Gabersek, S.; Flagg, D. D.; Doyle, J. D.; Martini, M.; Ryglicki, D.; Michalakes, J.; Giraldo, F.

2016-12-01

NEPTUNE: the Navy Environmental Prediction sysTem Using the NUMA*corE, is a 3D spectral element atmospheric model composed of a full suite of physics parameterizations and pre- and post-processing infrastructure with plans for data assimilation and coupling components to a variety of Earth-system models. This talk will focus on the initial struggles and solutions in adapting NUMA for stable and accurate integration on the sphere using both the deep atmosphere equations and a newly developed shallow-atmosphere approximation, as demonstrated through idealized test cases. In addition, details of the physics-dynamics coupling methodology will be discussed. NEPTUNE results for test cases from the 2016 Dynamical Core Model Intercomparison Project (DCMIP-2016) will be shown and discussed. *NUMA: Nonhydrostatic Unified Model of the Atmosphere; Kelly and Giraldo 2012, JCP

Assimilation of the radar-derived water vapour mixing ratio into the LM COSMO model with a high horizontal resolution

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Sokol, Zbyněk; Řezáčová, Daniela

2009-01-01

Roč. 92, č. 3 (2009), s. 331-342 ISSN 0169-8095. [International workshop on precipitation in urban areas /7./. St. Moritz, 07.12.2006-10.12.2006] R&D Projects: GA ČR GA205/07/0905; GA MŠk OC 112 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z30420517 Keywords : Precipitation * Local convective storm assimilation * Radar reflectivity * NWP model Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 1.811, year: 2009

Impact of partly ice-free Lake Ladoga on temperature and cloudiness in an anticyclonic winter situation – a case study using a limited area model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kalle Eerola

2014-12-01

Full Text Available At the end of January 2012, a low-level cloud from partly ice-free Lake Ladoga caused very variable 2-m temperatures in Eastern Finland. The sensitivity of the High Resolution Limited Area Model (HIRLAM to the lake surface conditions was tested in this winter anticyclonic situation. The lake appeared to be (incorrectly totally covered by ice when the lake surface was described with its climatology. Both parametrisation of the lake surface state by using a lake model integrated to the NWP system and objective analysis based on satellite observations independently resulted in a correct description of the partly ice-free Lake Ladoga. In these cases, HIRLAM model forecasts were able to predict cloud formation and its movement as well as 2-m temperature variations in a realistic way. Three main conclusions were drawn. First, HIRLAM could predict the effect of Lake Ladoga on local weather, when the lake surface state was known. Second, the current parametrisation methods of air–surface interactions led to a reliable result in conditions where the different physical processes (local surface processes, radiation and turbulence were not strong, but their combined effect was important. Third, these results encourage work for a better description of the lake surface state in NWP models by fully utilising satellite observations, combined with advanced lake parametrisation and data assimilation methods.

Modeling the competition between PHA-producing and non-PHA-producing bacteria in feast-famine SBR and staged CSTR systems.

Science.gov (United States)

Marang, Leonie; van Loosdrecht, Mark C M; Kleerebezem, Robbert

2015-12-01

Although the enrichment of specialized microbial cultures for the production of polyhydroxyalkanoates (PHA) is generally performed in sequencing batch reactors (SBRs), the required feast-famine conditions can also be established using two or more continuous stirred-tank reactors (CSTRs) in series with partial biomass recirculation. The use of CSTRs offers several advantages, but will result in distributed residence times and a less strict separation between feast and famine conditions. The aim of this study was to investigate the impact of the reactor configuration, and various process and biomass-specific parameters, on the enrichment of PHA-producing bacteria. A set of mathematical models was developed to predict the growth of Plasticicumulans acidivorans-as a model PHA producer-in competition with a non-storing heterotroph. A macroscopic model considering lumped biomass and an agent-based model considering individual cells were created to study the effect of residence time distribution and the resulting distributed bacterial states. The simulations showed that in the 2-stage CSTR system the selective pressure for PHA-producing bacteria is significantly lower than in the SBR, and strongly affected by the chosen feast-famine ratio. This is the result of substrate competition based on both the maximum specific substrate uptake rate and substrate affinity. Although the macroscopic model overestimates the selective pressure in the 2-stage CSTR system, it provides a quick and fairly good impression of the reactor performance and the impact of process and biomass-specific parameters. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Radar-driven high-resolution hydro-meteorological forecasts of the 26 September 2007 Venice flash flood

Science.gov (United States)

Rossa, Andrea M.; Laudanna Del Guerra, Franco; Borga, Marco; Zanon, Francesco; Settin, Tommaso; Leuenberger, Daniel

2010-11-01

SummaryThis study aims to assess the feasibility of assimilating carefully checked radar rainfall estimates into a numerical weather prediction (NWP) to extend the forecasting lead time for an extreme flash flood. The hydro-meteorological modeling chain includes the convection-permitting NWP model COSMO-2 and a coupled hydrological-hydraulic model. Radar rainfall estimates are assimilated into the NWP model via the latent heat nudging method. The study is focused on 26 September 2007 extreme flash flood which impacted the coastal area of North-eastern Italy around Venice. The hydro-meteorological modeling system is implemented over the 90 km2 Dese river basin draining to the Venice Lagoon. The radar rainfall observations are carefully checked for artifacts, including rain-induced signal attenuation, by means of physics-based correction procedures and comparison with a dense network of raingauges. The impact of the radar rainfall estimates in the assimilation cycle of the NWP model is very significant. The main individual organized convective systems are successfully introduced into the model state, both in terms of timing and localization. Also, high-intensity incorrectly localized precipitation is correctly reduced to about the observed levels. On the other hand, the highest rainfall intensities computed after assimilation underestimate the observed values by 20% and 50% at a scale of 20 km and 5 km, respectively. The positive impact of assimilating radar rainfall estimates is carried over into the free forecast for about 2-5 h, depending on when the forecast was started. The positive impact is larger when the main mesoscale convective system is present in the initial conditions. The improvements in the precipitation forecasts are propagated to the river flow simulations, with an extension of the forecasting lead time up to 3 h.

3D Modelling and Printing Technology to Produce Patient-Specific 3D Models.

Science.gov (United States)

Birbara, Nicolette S; Otton, James M; Pather, Nalini

2017-11-10

A comprehensive knowledge of mitral valve (MV) anatomy is crucial in the assessment of MV disease. While the use of three-dimensional (3D) modelling and printing in MV assessment has undergone early clinical evaluation, the precision and usefulness of this technology requires further investigation. This study aimed to assess and validate 3D modelling and printing technology to produce patient-specific 3D MV models. A prototype method for MV 3D modelling and printing was developed from computed tomography (CT) scans of a plastinated human heart. Mitral valve models were printed using four 3D printing methods and validated to assess precision. Cardiac CT and 3D echocardiography imaging data of four MV disease patients was used to produce patient-specific 3D printed models, and 40 cardiac health professionals (CHPs) were surveyed on the perceived value and potential uses of 3D models in a clinical setting. The prototype method demonstrated submillimetre precision for all four 3D printing methods used, and statistical analysis showed a significant difference (p3D printed models, particularly using multiple print materials, were considered useful by CHPs for preoperative planning, as well as other applications such as teaching and training. This study suggests that, with further advances in 3D modelling and printing technology, patient-specific 3D MV models could serve as a useful clinical tool. The findings also highlight the potential of this technology to be applied in a variety of medical areas within both clinical and educational settings. Copyright © 2017 Australian and New Zealand Society of Cardiac and Thoracic Surgeons (ANZSCTS) and the Cardiac Society of Australia and New Zealand (CSANZ). Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Soil Moisture Data Assimilation in the NASA Land Information System for Local Modeling Applications and Improved Situational Awareness

Science.gov (United States)

Case, Jonathan L.; Blakenship, Clay B.; Zavodsky, Bradley T.

2014-01-01

As part of the NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) Early Adopter (EA) program, the NASA Shortterm Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center has implemented a data assimilation (DA) routine into the NASA Land Information System (LIS) for soil moisture retrievals from the European Space Agency's Soil Moisture Ocean Salinity (SMOS) satellite. The SMAP EA program promotes application-driven research to provide a fundamental understanding of how SMAP data products will be used to improve decision-making at operational agencies. SPoRT has partnered with select NOAA/NWS Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs) that use output from a real-time regional configuration of LIS, without soil moisture DA, to initialize local numerical weather prediction (NWP) models and enhance situational awareness. Improvements to local NWP with the current LIS have been demonstrated; however, a better representation of the land surface through assimilation of SMOS (and eventually SMAP) retrievals is expected to lead to further model improvement, particularly during warm-season months. SPoRT will collaborate with select WFOs to assess the impact of soil moisture DA on operational forecast situations. Assimilation of the legacy SMOS instrument data provides an opportunity to develop expertise in preparation for using SMAP data products shortly after the scheduled launch on 5 November 2014. SMOS contains a passive L-band radiometer that is used to retrieve surface soil moisture at 35-km resolution with an accuracy of 0.04 cu cm cm (exp -3). SMAP will feature a comparable passive L-band instrument in conjunction with a 3-km resolution active radar component of slightly degraded accuracy. A combined radar-radiometer product will offer unprecedented global coverage of soil moisture at high spatial resolution (9 km) for hydrometeorological applications, balancing the resolution and accuracy of the active and passive instruments, respectively. The LIS software framework manages land surface model

A New Tropical Cyclone Dynamic Initialization Technique Using High Temporal and Spatial Density Atmospheric Motion Vectors and Airborne Field Campaign Data

Science.gov (United States)

Hendricks, Eric A.; Bell, Michael M.; Elsberry, Russell L.; Velden, Chris S.; Cecil, Dan

2016-01-01

Background: Initialization of tropical cyclones in numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems is a great challenge: Mass-wind ?eld balance; Secondary circulation and heating; Asymmetries. There can be large adjustments in structure and intensity in the ?rst 24 hours if the initial vortex is not in balance: Spurious gravity waves; Spin-up (model and physics). Existing mesoscale NWP model TC (Tropical Cyclone) initialization strategies: Bogus vortex, cold start from global analyses; 3DVAR or 4DVAR, possibly with synthetic observations; EnKF (Ensemble Kalman Filter); Dynamic initialization. Dynamic initialization allows vortex to have improved balance and physics spin-up at the initial time (e.g., Hendricks et al. 2013, 2011; Nguyen and Chen 2011; Fiorino and Warner 1981; Hoke and Anthes 1976). Himawari-8 geostationary satellite has capability of continuous imagery (10-minutes) over the full disk: New GOES-R satellites will have same capability. This will allow for unprecedented observations of tropical cyclones. However, current data assimila1on systems are not capable of ingesting such high temporal observations (Atmospheric Mo1on Vectors - AMVs). Hourly AMVs are produced, and thinned to 100-kilometer spacing in the horizontal. An entirely new data assimilation concept is required to utilize these observations.

Test of models for electron transport in laser produced plasmas

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Colombant, D.G.; Manheimer, W.M.; Busquet, M.

2005-01-01

This paper examines five different models of electron thermal transport in laser produced spherical implosions. These are classical, classical with a flux limit f, delocalization, beam deposition model, and Fokker-Planck solutions. In small targets, the results are strongly dependent on f for flux limit models, with small f's generating very steep temperature gradients. Delocalization models are characterized by large preheat in the center of the target. The beam deposition model agrees reasonably well with the Fokker-Planck simulation results. For large, high gain fusion targets, the delocalization model shows the gain substantially reduced by the preheat. However, flux limitation models show gain largely independent of f, with the beam deposition model also showing the same high gain

Ensemble Solar Forecasting Statistical Quantification and Sensitivity Analysis: Preprint

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Cheung, WanYin; Zhang, Jie; Florita, Anthony; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Lu, Siyuan; Hamann, Hendrik F.; Sun, Qian; Lehman, Brad

2015-12-08

Uncertainties associated with solar forecasts present challenges to maintain grid reliability, especially at high solar penetrations. This study aims to quantify the errors associated with the day-ahead solar forecast parameters and the theoretical solar power output for a 51-kW solar power plant in a utility area in the state of Vermont, U.S. Forecasts were generated by three numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, including the Rapid Refresh, the High Resolution Rapid Refresh, and the North American Model, and a machine-learning ensemble model. A photovoltaic (PV) performance model was adopted to calculate theoretical solar power generation using the forecast parameters (e.g., irradiance, cell temperature, and wind speed). Errors of the power outputs were quantified using statistical moments and a suite of metrics, such as the normalized root mean squared error (NRMSE). In addition, the PV model's sensitivity to different forecast parameters was quantified and analyzed. Results showed that the ensemble model yielded forecasts in all parameters with the smallest NRMSE. The NRMSE of solar irradiance forecasts of the ensemble NWP model was reduced by 28.10% compared to the best of the three NWP models. Further, the sensitivity analysis indicated that the errors of the forecasted cell temperature attributed only approximately 0.12% to the NRMSE of the power output as opposed to 7.44% from the forecasted solar irradiance.

Nutrient Content and Nutritional Water Productivity of Selected Grain Legumes in Response to Production Environment.

Science.gov (United States)

Chibarabada, Tendai Polite; Modi, Albert Thembinkosi; Mabhaudhi, Tafadzwanashe

2017-10-26

There is a need to incorporate nutrition into aspects of crop and water productivity to tackle food and nutrition insecurity (FNS). The study determined the nutritional water productivity (NWP) of selected major (groundnut, dry bean) and indigenous (bambara groundnut and cowpea) grain legumes in response to water regimes and environments. Field trials were conducted during 2015/16 and 2016/17 at three sites in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa (Ukulinga, Fountainhill and Umbumbulu). Yield and evapotranspiration (ET) data were collected. Grain was analysed for protein, fat, Ca, Fe and Zn nutrient content (NC). Yield, ET and NC were then used to compute NWP. Overall, the major legumes performed better than the indigenous grain legumes. Groundnut had the highest NWP fat . Groundnut and dry bean had the highest NWP protein . For NWP Fe, Zn and Ca , dry bean and cowpea were more productive. Yield instability caused fluctuations in NWP. Water treatments were not significant ( p > 0.05). While there is scope to improve NWP under rainfed conditions, a lack of crop improvement currently limits the potential of indigenous grain legumes. This provides an initial insight on the nutrient content and NWP of a limited number of selected grain legumes in response to the production environment. There is a need for follow-up research to include cowpea data. Future studies should provide more experimental data and explore effects of additional factors such as management practices (fertiliser levels and plant density), climate and edaphic factors on nutrient content and NWP of crops.

On the Limitations of Variational Bias Correction

Science.gov (United States)

Moradi, Isaac; Mccarty, Will; Gelaro, Ronald

2018-01-01

Satellite radiances are the largest dataset assimilated into Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models, however the data are subject to errors and uncertainties that need to be accounted for before assimilating into the NWP models. Variational bias correction uses the time series of observation minus background to estimate the observations bias. This technique does not distinguish between the background error, forward operator error, and observations error so that all these errors are summed up together and counted as observation error. We identify some sources of observations errors (e.g., antenna emissivity, non-linearity in the calibration, and antenna pattern) and show the limitations of variational bias corrections on estimating these errors.

Can producer currency pricing models generate volatile real exchange rates?

OpenAIRE

Povoledo, L.

2012-01-01

If the elasticities of substitution between traded and nontraded and between Home and Foreign traded goods are sufficiently low, then the real exchange rate generated by a model with full producer currency pricing is as volatile as in the data.

Medium-range reference evapotranspiration forecasts for the contiguous United States based on multi-model numerical weather predictions

Science.gov (United States)

Medina, Hanoi; Tian, Di; Srivastava, Puneet; Pelosi, Anna; Chirico, Giovanni B.

2018-07-01

Reference evapotranspiration (ET0) plays a fundamental role in agronomic, forestry, and water resources management. Estimating and forecasting ET0 have long been recognized as a major challenge for researchers and practitioners in these communities. This work explored the potential of multiple leading numerical weather predictions (NWPs) for estimating and forecasting summer ET0 at 101 U.S. Regional Climate Reference Network stations over nine climate regions across the contiguous United States (CONUS). Three leading global NWP model forecasts from THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE) dataset were used in this study, including the single model ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (EC), the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Global Forecast System (NCEP), and the United Kingdom Meteorological Office forecasts (MO), as well as multi-model ensemble forecasts from the combinations of these NWP models. A regression calibration was employed to bias correct the ET0 forecasts. Impact of individual forecast variables on ET0 forecasts were also evaluated. The results showed that the EC forecasts provided the least error and highest skill and reliability, followed by the MO and NCEP forecasts. The multi-model ensembles constructed from the combination of EC and MO forecasts provided slightly better performance than the single model EC forecasts. The regression process greatly improved ET0 forecast performances, particularly for the regions involving stations near the coast, or with a complex orography. The performance of EC forecasts was only slightly influenced by the size of the ensemble members, particularly at short lead times. Even with less ensemble members, EC still performed better than the other two NWPs. Errors in the radiation forecasts, followed by those in the wind, had the most detrimental effects on the ET0 forecast performances.

Exploring oil market dynamics: a system dynamics model and microworld of the oil producers

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Morecroft, J.D.W. [London Business School (United Kingdom); Marsh, B. [St Andrews Management Institute, Fife (United Kingdom)

1997-11-01

This chapter focuses on the development of a simulation model of global oil markets by Royal Dutch/Shell Planners in order to explore the implications of different scenarios. The model development process, mapping the decision making logic of the oil producers, the swing producer making enough to defend the intended price, the independents, quota setting, the opportunists, and market oil price and demand are examined. Use of the model to generate scenarios development of the model as a gaming simulator for training, design of the user interface, and the value of the model are considered in detail. (UK)

Modeling of phosphorus fluxes produced by wild fires at watershed scales.

Science.gov (United States)

Matyjasik, M.; Hernandez, M.; Shaw, N.; Baker, M.; Fowles, M. T.; Cisney, T. A.; Jex, A. P.; Moisen, G.

2017-12-01

River runoff is one of the controlling processes in the terrestrial phosphorus cycle. Phosphorus is often a limiting factor in fresh water. One of the factors that has not been studied and modeled in detail is phosporus flux produced from forest wild fires. Phosphate released by weathering is quickly absorbed in soils. Forest wild fires expose barren soils to intensive erosion, thus releasing relatively large fluxes of phosphorus. Measurements from three control burn sites were used to correlate erosion with phosphorus fluxes. These results were used to model phosphorus fluxes from burned watersheds during a five year long period after fires occurred. Erosion in our model is simulated using a combination of two models: the WEPP (USDA Water Erosion Prediction Project) and the GeoWEPP (GIS-based Water Erosion Prediction Project). Erosion produced from forest disturbances is predicted for any watershed using hydrologic, soil, and meteorological data unique to the individual watersheds or individual slopes. The erosion results are modified for different textural soil classes and slope angles to model fluxes of phosphorus. The results of these models are calibrated using measured concentrations of phosphorus for three watersheds located in the Interior Western United States. The results will help the United States Forest Service manage phosporus fluxes in national forests.

A new approach for assimilation of two-dimensional radar precipitation in a high resolution NWP model

Science.gov (United States)

Korsholm, Ulrik; Petersen, Claus; Hansen Sass, Bent; Woetman, Niels; Getreuer Jensen, David; Olsen, Bjarke Tobias; GIll, Rasphal; Vedel, Henrik

2014-05-01

The DMI nowcasting system has been running in a pre-operational state for the past year. The system consists of hourly simulations with the High Resolution Limited Area weather model combined with surface and three-dimensional variational assimilation at each restart and nudging of satellite cloud products and radar precipitation. Nudging of a two-dimensional radar reflectivity CAPPI product is achieved using a new method where low level horizontal divergence is nudged towards pseudo observations. Pseudo observations are calculated based on an assumed relation between divergence and precipitation rate and the strength of the nudging is proportional to the offset between observed and modelled precipitation leading to increased moisture convergence below cloud base if there is an under-production of precipitation relative to the CAPPI product. If the model over-predicts precipitation, the low level moisture source is reduced, and in-cloud moisture is nudged towards environmental values. In this talk results will be discussed based on calculation of the fractions skill score in cases with heavy precipitation over Denmark. Furthermore, results from simulations combining reflectivity nudging and extrapolation of reflectivity will be shown. Results indicate that the new method leads to fast adjustment of the dynamical state of the model to facilitate precipitation release when the model precipitation intensity is too low. Removal of precipitation is also shown to be of importance and strong improvements were found in the position of the precipitation systems. Bias is reduced for low and extreme precipitation rates.

An intercomparison of mesoscale models at simple sites for wind energy applications

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Olsen, Bjarke Tobias; Hahmann, Andrea N.; Sempreviva, Anna Maria

2017-01-01

of the output from 25 NWP models is presented for three sites in northern Europe characterized by simple terrain. The models are evaluated sing a number of statistical properties relevant to wind energy and verified with observations. On average the models have small wind speed biases offshore and aloft ( ... %) and larger biases closer to the surface over land (> 7 %). A similar pattern is detected for the inter-model spread. Strongly stable and strongly unstable atmospheric stability conditions are associated with larger wind speed errors. Strong indications are found that using a grid spacing larger than 3 km...... decreases the accuracy of the models, but we found no evidence that using a grid spacing smaller than 3 km is necessary for these simple sites. Applying the models to a simple wind energy offshore wind farm highlights the importance of capturing the correct distributions of wind speed and direction....

The CAnadian Surface Prediction ARchive (CaSPAr): A Platform to Enhance Environmental Modelling in Canada and Globally

Science.gov (United States)

Tolson, B.; Mai, J.; Kornelsen, K. C.; Coulibaly, P. D.; Anctil, F.; Fortin, V.; Leahy, M.; Hall, B.

2017-12-01

Environmental models are tools for the modern society for a wide range of applications such as flood and drought monitoring, carbon storage and release estimates, predictions of power generation amounts, or reservoir management amongst others. Environmental models differ in the types of processes they incorporate, where land surface models focus on the energy, water, and carbon cycle of the land and hydrological models concentrate mainly on the water cycle. All these models, however, have in common that they rely on environmental input data from ground observations such as temperature, precipitation and/or radiation to force the model. If the same model is run in forecast mode, numerical weather predictions (NWPs) are needed to replace these ground observations. Therefore, it is critical that NWP data be available to develop models and validate forecast performance. These data are provided by the Meteorological Service of Canada (MSC) on a daily basis. MSC provides multiple products ranging from large scale global models ( 33km/grid cell) to high resolution pan-Canadian models ( 2.5km/grid cell). Operational products providing forecasts in real-time are made publicly available only at the time of issue through various means with new forecasts issued 2-4 times per day. Unfortunately, long term storage of these data are offline and relatively inaccessible to the research and operational communities. The new Canadian Surface Prediction Archive (CaSPAr) platform is an accessible rolling archive of 10 of MSC's NWP products. The 500TB platform will allow users to extract specific time periods, regions of interest and variables of interest in an easy to access NetCDF format. CaSPAr and community contributed post-processing scripts and tools are being developed such that the users, for example, can interpolate the data due to their needs or auto-generate model forcing files. We will present the CaSPAr platform and provide some insights in the current development of the web

Comparison of dimensional accuracy of digital dental models produced from scanned impressions and scanned stone casts

Science.gov (United States)

Subeihi, Haitham

Introduction: Digital models of dental arches play a more and more important role in dentistry. A digital dental model can be generated by directly scanning intraoral structures, by scanning a conventional impression of oral structures or by scanning a stone cast poured from the conventional impression. An accurate digital scan model is a fundamental part for the fabrication of dental restorations. Aims: 1. To compare the dimensional accuracy of digital dental models produced by scanning of impressions versus scanning of stone casts. 2. To compare the dimensional accuracy of digital dental models produced by scanning of impressions made of three different materials (polyvinyl siloxane, polyether or vinyl polyether silicone). Methods and Materials: This laboratory study included taking addition silicone, polyether and vinyl polyether silicone impressions from an epoxy reference model that was created from an original typodont. Teeth number 28 and 30 on the typodont with a missing tooth number 29 were prepared for a metal-ceramic three-unit fixed dental prosthesis with tooth #29 being a pontic. After tooth preparation, an epoxy resin reference model was fabricated by duplicating the typodont quadrant that included the tooth preparations. From this reference model 12 polyvinyl siloxane impressions, 12 polyether impressions and 12 vinyl polyether silicone impressions were made. All 36 impressions were scanned before pouring them with dental stone. The 36 dental stone casts were, in turn, scanned to produce digital models. A reference digital model was made by scanning the reference model. Six groups of digital models were produced. Three groups were made by scanning of the impressions obtained with the three different materials, the other three groups involved the scanning of the dental casts that resulted from pouring the impressions made with the three different materials. Groups of digital models were compared using Root Mean Squares (RMS) in terms of their

Processing of 3D Weather Radar Data with Application for Assimilation in the NWP Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ośródka Katarzyna

2014-09-01

Full Text Available The paper is focused on the processing of 3D weather radar data to minimize the impact of a number of errors from different sources, both meteorological and non-meteorological. The data is also quantitatively characterized in terms of its quality. A set of dedicated algorithms based on analysis of the reflectivity field pattern is described. All the developed algorithms were tested on data from the Polish radar network POLRAD. Quality control plays a key role in avoiding the introduction of incorrect information into applications using radar data. One of the quality control methods is radar data assimilation in numerical weather prediction models to estimate initial conditions of the atmosphere. The study shows an experiment with quality controlled radar data assimilation in the COAMPS model using the ensemble Kalman filter technique. The analysis proved the potential of radar data for such applications; however, further investigations will be indispensable.

Observations and Predictability of Gap Winds in the Salmon River Canyon of Central Idaho, USA

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Natalie S. Wagenbrenner

2018-01-01

Full Text Available This work investigates gap winds in a steep, deep river canyon prone to wildland fire. The driving mechanisms and the potential for forecasting the gap winds are investigated. The onset and strength of the gap winds are found to be correlated to the formation of an along-gap pressure gradient linked to periodic development of a thermal trough in the Pacific Northwest, USA. Numerical simulations are performed using a reanalysis dataset to investigate the ability of numerical weather prediction (NWP to simulate the observed gap wind events, including the timing and flow characteristics within the canyon. The effects of model horizontal grid spacing and terrain representation are considered. The reanalysis simulations suggest that horizontal grid spacings used in operational NWP could be sufficient for simulating the gap flow events given the regional-scale depression in which the Salmon River Canyon is situated. The strength of the events, however, is under-predicted due, at least in part, to terrain smoothing in the model. Routine NWP, however, is found to have mixed results in terms of forecasting the gap wind events, primarily due to problems in simulating the regional sea level pressure system correctly.

Assesment of a soil moisture retrieval with numerical weather prediction model temperature

Science.gov (United States)

The effect of using a Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) soil temperature product instead of estimates provided by concurrent 37 GHz data on satellite-based passive microwave retrieval of soil moisture retrieval was evaluated. This was prompted by the change in system configuration of preceding mult...

Prior and posterior probabilistic models of uncertainties in a model for producing voice

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cataldo, Edson; Sampaio, Rubens; Soize, Christian

2010-01-01

The aim of this paper is to use Bayesian statistics to update a probability density function related to the tension parameter, which is one of the main parameters responsible for the changing of the fundamental frequency of a voice signal, generated by a mechanical/mathematical model for producing voiced sounds. We follow a parametric approach for stochastic modeling, which requires the adoption of random variables to represent the uncertain parameters present in the cited model. For each random variable, a probability density function is constructed using the Maximum Entropy Principle and the Monte Carlo method is used to generate voice signals as the output of the model. Then, a probability density function of the voice fundamental frequency is constructed. The random variables are fit to experimental data so that the probability density function of the fundamental frequency obtained by the model can be as near as possible of a probability density function obtained from experimental data. New values are obtained experimentally for the fundamental frequency and they are used to update the probability density function of the tension parameter, via Bayes's Theorem.

Coupled Atmosphere-Wave-Ocean Modeling of Tropical Cyclones: Progress, Challenges, and Ways Forward

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Shuyi

2015-04-01

It has long been recognized that air-sea interaction plays an important role in tropical cyclones (TC) intensity change. However, most current numerical weather prediction (NWP) models are deficient in predicting TC intensity. The extreme high winds, intense rainfall, large ocean waves, and copious sea spray in TCs push the surface-exchange parameters for temperature, water vapor, and momentum into untested regimes. Parameterizations of air-sea fluxes in NWP models are often crude and create "manmade" energy source/sink that does not exist, especially in the absence of a fully interactive ocean in the model. The erroneous surface heat, moisture, and momentum fluxes can cause compounding errors in the model (e.g., precipitation, water vapor, boundary layer properties). The energy source (heat and moisture fluxes from the ocean) and sink (surface friction and wind-induced upper ocean cooling) are critical to TC intensity. However, observations of air-sea fluxes in TCs are very limited, especially in extreme high wind conditions underneath of the eyewall region. The Coupled Boundary Layer Air-Sea Transfer (CBLAST) program was designed to better understand the air-sea interaction, especially in high wind conditions, which included laboratory and coupled model experiments and field campaign in 2003-04 hurricane seasons. Significant progress has been made in better understanding of air-sea exchange coefficients up to 30 m/s, i.e., a leveling off in drag coefficient and relatively invariant exchange coefficient of enthalpy with wind speed. More recently, the Impact of Typhoon on the Ocean in the Pacific (ITOP) field campaign in 2010 has provided an unprecedented data set to study the air-sea fluxes in TCs and their impact on TC structure and intensity. More than 800 GPS dropsondes and 900 AXBTs/AXCTs as well as drifters, floats, and moorings were deployed in TCs, including Typhoons Fanapi and Malakas, and Supertyphoon Megi with a record peak wind speed of more than 80 m

A Two-Dimensional Gridded Solar Forecasting System using Situation-Dependent Blending of Multiple Weather Models

Science.gov (United States)

Lu, S.; Hwang, Y.; Shao, X.; Hamann, H.

2015-12-01

Previously, we reported the application of a "weather situation" dependent multi-model blending approach to improve the forecast accuracy of solar irradiance and other atmospheric parameters. The approach uses machine-learning techniques to classify "weather situations" by a set of atmospheric parameters. The "weather situation" classification is location-dependent and each "weather situation" has characteristic forecast errors from a set of individual input numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. The input models are thus corrected or combined differently for different "weather situations" to minimize the overall forecast error. While the original implementation of the model-blending is applicable to only point-like locations having historical data of both measurements and forecasts, here we extend the approach to provide two-dimensional (2D) gridded forecasts. An experimental 2D forecasting system has been set up to provide gridded forecasts of solar irradiance (global horizontal irradiance), temperature, wind speed, and humidity for the contiguous United States (CONUS). Validation results show around 30% enhancement of 0 to 48 hour ahead solar irradiance forecast accuracy compared to the best input NWP model. The forecasting system may be leveraged by other site- or region-specific solar energy forecast products. To enable the 2D forecasting system, historical solar irradiance measurements from around 1,600 selected sites of the remote automated weather stations (RAWS) network have been employed. The CONUS was divided into smaller sub-regions, each containing a group of 10 to 20 RAWS sites. A group of sites, as classified by statistical analysis, have similar "weather patterns", i.e. the NWPs have similar "weather situation" dependent forecast errors for all sites in a group. The model-blending trained by the historical data from a group of sites is then applied for all locations in the corresponding sub-region. We discuss some key techniques developed for

Evaluating the effect of ward-based outreach teams on primary ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

the Brazilian model, the South African (SA) government formulated ... primary healthcare performance in North West Province, ... NWP, comparing changes in coverage, utilisation and outcome indicators in facilities with and without WBOTs.

A COMPARISON OF THE TENSILE STRENGTH OF PLASTIC PARTS PRODUCED BY A FUSED DEPOSITION MODELING DEVICE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Juraj Beniak

2015-12-01

Full Text Available Rapid Prototyping systems are nowadays increasingly used in many areas of industry, not only for producing design models but also for producing parts for final use. We need to know the properties of these parts. When we talk about the Fused Deposition Modeling (FDM technique and FDM devices, there are many possible settings for devices and models which could influence the properties of a final part. In addition, devices based on the same principle may use different operational software for calculating the tool path, and this may have a major impact. The aim of this paper is to show the tensile strength value for parts produced from different materials on the Fused Deposition Modeling device when the horizontal orientation of the specimens is changed.

Assessing the Impact of Surface and Upper-Air Observations on the Forecast Skill of the ACCESS Numerical Weather Prediction Model over Australia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sergei Soldatenko

2018-01-01

Full Text Available The impact of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology’s in situ observations (land and sea surface observations, upper air observations by radiosondes, pilot balloons, wind profilers, and aircraft observations on the short-term forecast skill provided by the ACCESS (Australian Community Climate and Earth-System Simulator global numerical weather prediction (NWP system is evaluated using an adjoint-based method. This technique makes use of the adjoint perturbation forecast model utilized within the 4D-Var assimilation system, and is able to calculate the individual impact of each assimilated observation in a cycling NWP system. The results obtained show that synoptic observations account for about 60% of the 24-h forecast error reduction, with the remainder accounted for by aircraft (12.8%, radiosondes (10.5%, wind profilers (3.9%, pilot balloons (2.8%, buoys (1.7% and ships (1.2%. In contrast, the largest impact per observation is from buoys and aircraft. Overall, all observation types have a positive impact on the 24-h forecast skill. Such results help to support the decision-making process regarding the evolution of the observing network, particularly at the national level. Consequently, this 4D-Var-based approach has great potential as a tool to assist the design and running of an efficient and effective observing network.

Towards an Australian ensemble streamflow forecasting system for flood prediction and water management

Science.gov (United States)

Bennett, J.; David, R. E.; Wang, Q.; Li, M.; Shrestha, D. L.

2016-12-01

Flood forecasting in Australia has historically relied on deterministic forecasting models run only when floods are imminent, with considerable forecaster input and interpretation. These now co-existed with a continually available 7-day streamflow forecasting service (also deterministic) aimed at operational water management applications such as environmental flow releases. The 7-day service is not optimised for flood prediction. We describe progress on developing a system for ensemble streamflow forecasting that is suitable for both flood prediction and water management applications. Precipitation uncertainty is handled through post-processing of Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) output with a Bayesian rainfall post-processor (RPP). The RPP corrects biases, downscales NWP output, and produces reliable ensemble spread. Ensemble precipitation forecasts are used to force a semi-distributed conceptual rainfall-runoff model. Uncertainty in precipitation forecasts is insufficient to reliably describe streamflow forecast uncertainty, particularly at shorter lead-times. We characterise hydrological prediction uncertainty separately with a 4-stage error model. The error model relies on data transformation to ensure residuals are homoscedastic and symmetrically distributed. To ensure streamflow forecasts are accurate and reliable, the residuals are modelled using a mixture-Gaussian distribution with distinct parameters for the rising and falling limbs of the forecast hydrograph. In a case study of the Murray River in south-eastern Australia, we show ensemble predictions of floods generally have lower errors than deterministic forecasting methods. We also discuss some of the challenges in operationalising short-term ensemble streamflow forecasts in Australia, including meeting the needs for accurate predictions across all flow ranges and comparing forecasts generated by event and continuous hydrological models.

The HTA core model: a novel method for producing and reporting health technology assessments

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lampe, Kristian; Mäkelä, Marjukka; Garrido, Marcial Velasco

2009-01-01

OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to develop and test a generic framework to enable international collaboration for producing and sharing results of health technology assessments (HTAs). METHODS: Ten international teams constructed the HTA Core Model, dividing information contained...... for diagnostic technologies. Two Core HTAs were produced in parallel with developing the model, providing the first real-life testing of the Model and input for further development. The results of formal validation and public feedback were primarily positive. Development needs were also identified and considered....... An online Handbook is available. CONCLUSIONS: The HTA Core Model is a novel approach to HTA. It enables effective international production and sharing of HTA results in a structured format. The face validity of the Model was confirmed during the project, but further testing and refining are needed to ensure...

Nuclear risk from atmospheric dispersion in Northern Europe

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lauritzen, B.

2007-04-01

The aim of the 2005-06 NKS-B NordRisk project has been to present practical methods for probabilistic risk assessment from long-range atmospheric transport and deposition of radioactive material. In this project an atlas of long-range atmospheric dispersion and deposition patterns derived from archived numerical weather prediction (NWP) model data coupled to an atmospheric dispersion model has been produced, and a PC-based software tool has been developed, based on a simplified description of the long-term, long-range atmospheric dispersion and deposition. The atlas and the software tool may allow for a rapid, first assessment of the risks following a nuclear emergency, when detailed information on the long-range atmospheric dispersion and deposition is not available. (au)

Oceansat-2 and RAMA buoy winds: A comparison

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

rate Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model analysis over the data sparse oceanic region. Sea ... Among the three tropical oceans, Pacific, Atlantic ..... which obviously causes bias. ... side, and will increase mean buoy winds relative.

A MODEL FOR PRODUCING STABLE, BROADBAND TERAHERTZ COHERENT SYNCHROTRON RADIATION IN STORAGE RINGS

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sannibale, Fernando; Byrd, John M.; Loftsdottir, Agusta; Martin, MichaelC.; Venturini, Marco

2003-01-01

We present a model for producing stable broadband coherent synchrotron radiation (CSR) in the terahertz frequency region in an electron storage ring. The model includes distortion of bunch shape from the synchrotron radiation (SR), enhancing higher frequency coherent emission and limits to stable emission due to a microbunching instability excited by the SR. We use this model to optimize the performance of a source for CSR emission

Comparison of prosthetic models produced by traditional and additive manufacturing methods.

Science.gov (United States)

Park, Jin-Young; Kim, Hae-Young; Kim, Ji-Hwan; Kim, Jae-Hong; Kim, Woong-Chul

2015-08-01

The purpose of this study was to verify the clinical-feasibility of additive manufacturing by comparing the accuracy of four different manufacturing methods for metal coping: the conventional lost wax technique (CLWT); subtractive methods with wax blank milling (WBM); and two additive methods, multi jet modeling (MJM), and micro-stereolithography (Micro-SLA). Thirty study models were created using an acrylic model with the maxillary upper right canine, first premolar, and first molar teeth. Based on the scan files from a non-contact blue light scanner (Identica; Medit Co. Ltd., Seoul, Korea), thirty cores were produced using the WBM, MJM, and Micro-SLA methods, respectively, and another thirty frameworks were produced using the CLWT method. To measure the marginal and internal gap, the silicone replica method was adopted, and the silicone images obtained were evaluated using a digital microscope (KH-7700; Hirox, Tokyo, Japan) at 140X magnification. Analyses were performed using two-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) and Tukey post hoc test (α=.05). The mean marginal gaps and internal gaps showed significant differences according to tooth type (Pmanufacturing method (Pmanufacturing methods were within a clinically allowable range, and, thus, the clinical use of additive manufacturing methods is acceptable as an alternative to the traditional lost wax-technique and subtractive manufacturing.

Assessing the impact of a solar eclipse on weather and photovoltaic production

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Carmen Köhler

2016-02-01

Full Text Available With the strong expansion of the installed renewable energy over the last years, the relevance of weather forecasts for operating the German power system has considerably increased. In that context, rare but important events like the solar eclipse on the morning of 20 March 2015 pose an additional challenge when operating the power system, as it affects the photovoltaic (PV power production by inducing strong gradients in the feed-in. In order to maintain grid stability, the uncertainties associated with the eclipse have been estimated in advance for planning necessary precautions. Especially the maximum gradients in PV-power were of importance for the provision of balancing energy. Numerical weather prediction (NWP is very suited for this assessment, as it allows to consider the complex mechanisms occurring in the atmosphere. Thus the impact of the eclipse on meteorological parameters which affect the PV-power generation were evaluated. Sensitivity studies with NWP models have been conducted in order to assess the reduction in short wave radiation and temperature during the total solar eclipse months before the actual event. For this purpose, model simulations with the non-hydrostatic COSMO models from the German Weather Service (DWD have been performed over Germany and Europe. As the weather situation and especially the cloud cover during the eclipse could not be known in advance, a realistic worst case (clear sky conditions and a best case (overcast conditions scenario were simulated over Germany. Thereof the PV-power production has been estimated and analyzed for the different scenarios. The NWP model data from the sensitivity studies are openly distributed (doi:10.1594/PANGAEA.839163. As near real-time NWP simulations considering the solar eclipse were conducted a few days prior to the event, they are herein validated with measurements. Furthermore, the actual PV-power production and actions taken by the TSOs during the solar eclipse are

The NASA Severe Thunderstorm Observations and Regional Modeling (NASA STORM) Project

Science.gov (United States)

Schultz, Christopher J.; Gatlin, Patrick N.; Lang, Timothy J.; Srikishen, Jayanthi; Case, Jonathan L.; Molthan, Andrew L.; Zavodsky, Bradley T.; Bailey, Jeffrey; Blakeslee, Richard J.; Jedlovec, Gary J.

2016-01-01

The NASA Severe Storm Thunderstorm Observations and Regional Modeling(NASA STORM) project enhanced NASA’s severe weather research capabilities, building upon existing Earth Science expertise at NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC). During this project, MSFC extended NASA’s ground-based lightning detection capacity to include a readily deployable lightning mapping array (LMA). NASA STORM also enabled NASA’s Short-term Prediction and Research Transition (SPoRT) to add convection allowing ensemble modeling to its portfolio of regional numerical weather prediction (NWP) capabilities. As a part of NASA STORM, MSFC developed new open-source capabilities for analyzing and displaying weather radar observations integrated from both research and operational networks. These accomplishments enabled by NASA STORM are a step towards enhancing NASA’s capabilities for studying severe weather and positions them for any future NASA related severe storm field campaigns.

Current status of multimodel superensemble and operational NWP ...

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

global climate and weather modeling branch for. January 2006. .... homogeneity of land surface, orography, water bod- ..... batic and the cloud-environment sounding intersect). ..... the influence of cumulus convection on large-scale flow;.

Is the Merchant Power Producer a broken model?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nelson, James; Simshauser, Paul

2013-01-01

Deregulated energy markets were founded on the Merchant Power Producer, a stand-alone generator that sold its production to the spot and short-term forward markets, underpinned by long-dated project finance. The initial enthusiasm that existed for investment in existing and new merchant power plant capacity shortly after power system deregulation has progressively dissipated, following an excess entry result. In this article, we demonstrate why this has become a global trend. Using debt-sizing parameters typically used by project banks, we model a benchmark plant, then re-simulate its performance using live energy market price data and find that such financings are no longer feasible in the absence of long-term Power Purchase Agreements. - Highlights: ► We model a hypothetical CCGT plant in QLD under project financing constraints typical of the industry. ► We simulate plant operations with live market data to analyse the results. ► We find that a plant which should represent the industry's long-run marginal cost is not a feasible investment.

Modeling terrestrial gamma ray flashes produced by relativistic feedback discharges

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Ningyu; Dwyer, Joseph R.

2013-05-01

This paper reports a modeling study of terrestrial gamma ray flashes (TGFs) produced by relativistic feedback discharges. Terrestrial gamma ray flashes are intense energetic radiation originating from the Earth's atmosphere that has been observed by spacecraft. They are produced by bremsstrahlung interactions of energetic electrons, known as runaway electrons, with air atoms. An efficient physical mechanism for producing large fluxes of the runaway electrons to make the TGFs is the relativistic feedback discharge, where seed runaway electrons are generated by positrons and X-rays, products of the discharge itself. Once the relativistic feedback discharge becomes self-sustaining, an exponentially increasing number of relativistic electron avalanches propagate through the same high-field region inside the thundercloud until the electric field is partially discharged by the ionization created by the discharge. The modeling results indicate that the durations of the TGF pulses produced by the relativistic feedback discharge vary from tens of microseconds to several milliseconds, encompassing all durations of the TGFs observed so far. In addition, when a sufficiently large potential difference is available in thunderclouds, a self-propagating discharge known as the relativistic feedback streamer can be formed, which propagates like a conventional positive streamer. For the relativistic feedback streamer, the positive feedback mechanism of runaway electron production by the positrons and X-rays plays a similar role as the photoionization for the conventional positive streamer. The simulation results of the relativistic feedback streamer show that a sequence of TGF pulses with varying durations can be produced by the streamer. The relativistic streamer may initially propagate with a pulsed manner and turn into a continuous propagation mode at a later stage. Milliseconds long TGF pulses can be produced by the feedback streamer during its continuous propagation. However

A physical model to predict climate dynamics in ventilated bulk-storage of agricultural produce

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Lukasse, L.J.S.; Kramer-Cuppen, de J.E.; Voort, van der A.J.

2007-01-01

This paper presents a physical model for predicting climate dynamics in ventilated bulk-storage of agricultural produce. A well-ordered model presentation was obtained by combining an object-oriented zonal decomposition with a process-oriented decomposition through matrix¿vector notation. The

An assimilation test of Doppler radar reflectivity and radial velocity from different height layers in improving the WRF rainfall forecasts

Science.gov (United States)

Tian, Jiyang; Liu, Jia; Yan, Denghua; Li, Chuanzhe; Chu, Zhigang; Yu, Fuliang

2017-12-01

Hydrological forecasts require high-resolution and accurate rainfall information, which is one of the most difficult variables to be captured by the mesoscale Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) systems. Radar data assimilation is an effective method for improving rainfall forecasts by correcting the initial and lateral boundary conditions of the NWP system. The aim of this study is to explore an efficient way of utilizing the Doppler radar observations for data assimilation, which is implemented by exploring the effect of assimilating radar data from different height layers on the improvement of the NWP rainfall accuracy. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is used for numerical rainfall forecast in the Zijingguan catchment located in the ;Jing-Jin-Ji; (Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei) Region of Northern China, and the three-dimensional variational data assimilation (3-DVar) technique is adopted to assimilate the radar data. Radar reflectivity and radial velocity are assimilated separately and jointly. Each type of radar data is divided into seven data sets according to the height layers: (1) 2000 m, and (7) all layers. The results show that radar reflectivity assimilation leads to better results than radial velocity assimilation. The accuracy of the forecasted rainfall deteriorates with the rise of the height of the assimilated radar reflectivity. The same results can be found when assimilating radar reflectivity and radial velocity at the same time. The conclusions of this study provide a reference for efficient assimilation of the radar data in improving the NWP rainfall products.

Journal of Earth System Science | Indian Academy of Sciences

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

... superensemble and operational NWP forecast of the Indian summer monsoon ... models towards improving skills for the medium range time-scale of 7 days. ... variables such as winds,temperature,500 hPa geopotential height,sea level ...

Integrated fate modeling for exposure assessment of produced water on the Sable Island Bank (Scotian shelf, Canada).

Science.gov (United States)

Berry, Jody A; Wells, Peter G

2004-10-01

Produced water is the largest waste discharge from the production phase of oil and gas wells. Produced water is a mixture of reservoir formation water and production chemicals from the separation process. This creates a chemical mixture that has several components of toxic concern, ranging from heavy metals to soluble hydrocarbons. Analysis of potential environmental effects from produced water in the Sable Island Bank region (NS, Canada) was conducted using an integrated modeling approach according to the ecological risk assessment framework. A hydrodynamic dispersion model was used to describe the wastewater plume. A second fugacity-based model was used to describe the likely plume partitioning in the local environmental media of water, suspended sediment, biota, and sediment. Results from the integrated modeling showed that the soluble benzene and naphthalene components reach chronic no-effect concentration levels at a distance of 1.0 m from the discharge point. The partition modeling indicated that low persistence was expected because of advection forces caused by tidal currents for the Sable Island Bank system. The exposure assessment for the two soluble hydrocarbon components suggests that the risks of adverse environmental effects from produced water on Sable Island Bank are low.

Limitations of BCC_CSM's ability to predict summer precipitation over East Asia and the Northwestern Pacific

KAUST Repository

Gong, Zhiqiang; Dogar, Muhammad Mubashar; Qiao, Shaobo; Hu, Po; Feng, Guolin

2017-01-01

This study examines the ability of the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model (BCC_CSM) to predict the meridional pattern of summer precipitation over East Asia-Northwest Pacific (EA-NWP) and its East Asia-Pacific (EAP) teleconnection

Spatial bias and uncertainty in numerical weather predictions for urban runoff forecasts with long time horizons

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pedersen, Jonas Wied; Courdent, Vianney Augustin Thomas; Vezzaro, Luca

2017-01-01

Numerical Weather Predictions (NWP) can be used to forecast urban runoff with long lead times. However, NWP exhibit large spatial uncertainties and using forecasted precipitation directly above the catchment might therefore not be an ideal approach in an online setup. We use the Danish...... Meteorological Institute’s NWP ensemble and investigate a large spatial neighborhood around the catchment over a two-year period. When compared against in-sewer observations, runoff forecasts forced with precipitation from north-east of the catchment are most skillful. This highlights spatial biases...

Sensitivity of movement and intensity of severe cyclone AILA to the ...

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

at high temperature and heat export to the low temperatures ... J. Earth Syst. Sci. 122, No. ... the clouds and their environments. Anthes and. Hoke (1975) studied the effect of horizontal diver- ... NWP models good progress in forecasting tropi-.

Forecast simulation of rapidly-intensified typhoon in the Eddy-Rich Northwest Pacific region

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, Kyeong Ok; Yuk, Jin-Hee; Jung, Kyung Tae; Kuh Kang, Suk

2017-04-01

The real-time typhoon predictions in the Northwest Pacific (NWP) are being distributed by various agencies (for example, KMA, JMA, JTWC, NMC, CWB, HKO and PAGASA). Currently the movement of the typhoon can be predicted with an error of less than 100 km in 48 hours, however it is difficult to the predict of the intensity of the typhoon especially the Rapidly Intensified (RI) Typhoons. The mean occurrence of RI typhoon amounts to 5.4 times a year during 39 years (1977-2015), occupying 21% of typhoons in NWP. Especially the RI typhoon in the Eddy-Rich Northwest Pacific (ER-NWP) occurred 1.8 times a year, covering 29% of typhoons in ER-NWP. A RI typhoon, NEPARTAK (T201601), occurred in July 2016. It was formed in Caroline Islands and moved northwest, straightly heading for Taiwan. However, at the beginning stage many forecasting agencies predicts as move to the Yellow Sea. The accuracy of prediction data of the Typhoon NEPARTAK (T201601) from KMA, JMA and JTWC was compared with the adjusted best-track data from Digital-Typhoon (JMA-RSMC). The sequential prediction data are summarized with 6-hour interval from 3th to 10th July 2016.The JMA prediction of the typhoon track and the JTWC predictions of the maximum wind speed were found to be best. The numerical simulations using WRF model forced with NCEP GFS prediction data and microwave SST is compared. The simulations using one domain (D1), two domains (D2) using a moving nest scheme, and with or without the spectral nudging (-SN) are compared. Comparison of the errors on the track shows the differences of 100 km in 48-hour prediction and200 km in 72-hour prediction on average. The best results on the track prediction are shown in the D2 case of WRF model. However, underestimation of the maximum wind speed of WRF prediction still exists, obviously requiring better understanding of RI-related processes to improve the model prediction.

Nuclear risk from atmospheric dispersion in Northern Europe - Summary Report

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lauritzen, Bent

The objective of the NordRisk II project has been to derive practical means for assessing the risks from long-range atmospheric dispersion of radioac-tive materials. An atlas over different atmospheric dispersion and deposi-tion scenarios has been developed using historical numerical weather pre......-diction (NWP) model data. The NWP model data covers three years span-ning the climate variability associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation, and the atlas considers radioactive releases from 16 release sites in and near the Nordic countries. A statistical analysis of the long-range disper......-sion and deposition patterns is undertaken to quantify the mean dispersion and deposition as well as the variability. Preliminary analyses show that the large-scale atmospheric dispersion and deposition is near-isotropic, irrespective of the release site and detailed climatology, and allows for a simple...

Experimental and mathematical model of the interactions in the mixed culture of links in the "producer-consumer" cycle

Science.gov (United States)

Pisman, T. I.; Galayda, Ya. V.

The paper presents experimental and mathematical model of interactions between invertebrates the ciliates Paramecium caudatum and the rotifers Brachionus plicatilis and algae Chlorella vulgaris and Scenedesmus quadricauda in the producer -- consumer aquatic biotic cycle with spatially separated components The model describes the dynamics of the mixed culture of ciliates and rotifers in the consumer component feeding on the mixed algal culture of the producer component It has been found that metabolites of the algae Scenedesmus produce an adverse effect on the reproduction of the ciliates P caudatum Taking into account this effect the results of investigation of the mathematical model were in qualitative agreement with the experimental results In the producer -- consumer biotic cycle it was shown that coexistence is impossible in the mixed algal culture of the producer component and in the mixed culture of invertebrates of the consumer component The ciliates P caudatum are driven out by the rotifers Brachionus plicatilis

Modeling transient luminous events produced by cloud to ground lightning and narrow bipolar pulses: detailed spectra and chemical impact

Science.gov (United States)

Perez-Invernon, F. J.; Luque, A.; Gordillo-Vazquez, F. J.

2017-12-01

The electromagnetic field generated by lightning discharges can produce Transient Luminous Events (TLEs) in the lower ionosphere, as previously investigated by many authors. Some recent studies suggest that narrow bipolar pulses (NBP), an impulsive and not well-established type of atmospheric electrical discharge, could also produce TLEs. The characterization and observation of such TLEs could be a source of information about the physics underlying NBP. In this work, we develop two different electrodynamical models to study the impact of lightning-driven electromagnetic fields in the lower ionosphere. The first model calculates the quasi-electrostatic field produced by a single cloud to ground lightning in the terrestrial atmosphere and its influence in the electron transport. This scheme allows us to study halos, a relatively frequent type of TLE. The second model solves the Maxwell equations for the electromagnetic field produced by a lightning discharge coupled with the Langevin's equation for the induced currents in the ionosphere. This model is useful to investigate elves, a fast TLE produced by lightning or by NBP. In addition, both models are coupled with a detailed chemistry of the electronically and vibrationally excited states of molecular nitrogen, allowing us to calculate synthetic spectra of both halos and elves. The models also include a detailed set of kinetic reactions to calculate the temporal evolution of other species. Our results suggest an important enhancement of some molecular species produced by halos, as NOx , N2 O and other metastable species. The quantification of their production could be useful to understand the role of thunderstorms in the climate of our planet. In the case of TLEs produced by NBP, our model confirms the appearance of double elves and allows us to compute their spectral characteristics.

A seasonal model of contracts between a monopsonistic processor and smallholder pepper producers in Costa Rica

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Sáenz Segura, F.; Haese, D' M.F.C.; Schipper, R.A.

2010-01-01

We model the contractual arrangements between smallholder pepper (Piper nigrum L.) producers and a single processor in Costa Rica. Producers in the El Roble settlement sell their pepper to only one processing firm, which exerts its monopsonistic bargaining power by setting the purchase price of

Modeling of the structure in aqueous solution of the exopolysaccharide produced by Lactobacillus helveticus 766

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Vliegenthart, J.F.G.; Faber, E.J.; Kuik, J.A. van; Kamerling, J.P.

2002-01-01

A method is described for constructing a conformational model in water of a heteropolysaccharide built up from repeating units, and is applied to the exopolysaccharide produced by Lactobacillus helveticus 766. The molecular modeling method is based on energy minima, obtained from molecular mechanics

METRODOS: Meteorological preprocessor chain

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Astrup, P.; Mikkelsen, T.; Deme, S.

2001-01-01

The METRODOS meteorological preprocessor chain combines measured tower data and coarse grid numerical weather prediction (NWP) data with local scale flow models and similarity scaling to give high resolution approximations of the meteorological situation. Based on available wind velocity and dire...

One-dimensional modeling of thermal energy produced in a seismic fault

Science.gov (United States)

Konga, Guy Pascal; Koumetio, Fidèle; Yemele, David; Olivier Djiogang, Francis

2017-12-01

Generally, one observes an anomaly of temperature before a big earthquake. In this paper, we established the expression of thermal energy produced by friction forces between the walls of a seismic fault while considering the dynamic of a one-dimensional spring-block model. It is noted that, before the rupture of a seismic fault, displacements are caused by microseisms. The curves of variation of this thermal energy with time show that, for oscillatory and aperiodic displacement, the thermal energy is accumulated in the same way. The study reveals that thermal energy as well as temperature increases abruptly after a certain amount of time. We suggest that the corresponding time is the start of the anomaly of temperature observed which can be considered as precursory effect of a big seism. We suggest that the thermal energy can heat gases and dilate rocks until they crack. The warm gases can then pass through the cracks towards the surface. The cracks created by thermal energy can also contribute to the rupture of the seismic fault. We also suggest that the theoretical model of thermal energy, produced in seismic fault, associated with a large quantity of experimental data may help in the prediction of earthquakes.

Finding of No Significant Impact & Tiered Environmental Assessment: Public Law 84-99 Rehabilitation Program Dry Creek Flood Risk Reduction Project Hawarden, Sioux County, Iowa

Science.gov (United States)

2014-11-01

purpose of navigation. This NWP does not authorize beach restoration. This NWP does not authorize new stream channelization or stream relocation...may use unsuitable material (e.g., trash , debris, car bodies, asphalt, etc.). Material used for construction or discharged must be free from toxic

Fuzzy rule-based modelling for human health risk from naturally occurring radioactive materials in produced water

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shakhawat, Chowdhury; Tahir, Husain; Neil, Bose

2006-01-01

Produced water, discharged from offshore oil and gas operations, contains chemicals from formation water, condensed water, and any chemical added down hole or during the oil/water separation process. Although, most of the contaminants fall below the detection limits within a short distance from the discharge port, a few of the remaining contaminants including naturally occurring radioactive materials (NORM) are of concern due to their bioavailability in the media and bioaccumulation characteristics in finfish and shellfish species used for human consumption. In the past, several initiatives have been taken to model human health risk from NORM in produced water. The parameters of the available risk assessment models are imprecise and sparse in nature. In this study, a fuzzy possibilistic evaluation using fuzzy rule based modeling has been presented. Being conservative in nature, the possibilistic approach considers possible input parameter values; thus provides better environmental prediction than the Monte Carlo (MC) calculation. The uncertainties of the input parameters were captured with fuzzy triangular membership functions (TFNs). Fuzzy if-then rules were applied for input concentrations of two isotopes of radium, namely 226 Ra, and 228 Ra, available in produced water and bulk dilution to evaluate the radium concentration in fish tissue used for human consumption. The bulk dilution was predicted using four input parameters: produced water discharge rate, ambient seawater velocity, depth of discharge port and density gradient. The evaluated cancer risk shows compliance with the regulatory guidelines; thus minimum risk to human health is expected from NORM components in produced water

Imaging gravity waves in lower stratospheric AMSU-A radiances, Part 2: Validation case study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. D. Eckermann

2006-01-01

Full Text Available Two-dimensional radiance maps from Channel 9 (~60–90 hPa of the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU-A, acquired over southern Scandinavia on 14 January 2003, show plane-wave-like oscillations with a wavelength λh of ~400–500 km and peak brightness temperature amplitudes of up to 0.9 K. The wave-like pattern is observed in AMSU-A radiances from 8 overpasses of this region by 4 different satellites, revealing a growth in the disturbance amplitude from 00:00 UTC to 12:00 UTC and a change in its horizontal structure between 12:00 UTC and 20:00 UTC. Forecast and hindcast runs for 14 January 2003 using high-resolution global and regional numerical weather prediction (NWP models generate a lower stratospheric mountain wave over southern Scandinavia with peak 90 hPa temperature amplitudes of ~5–7 K at 12:00 UTC and a similar horizontal wavelength, packet width, phase structure and time evolution to the disturbance observed in AMSU-A radiances. The wave's vertical wavelength is ~12 km. These NWP fields are validated against radiosonde wind and temperature profiles and airborne lidar profiles of temperature and aerosol backscatter ratios acquired from the NASA DC-8 during the second SAGE III Ozone Loss and Validation Experiment (SOLVE II. Both the amplitude and phase of the stratospheric mountain wave in the various NWP fields agree well with localized perturbation features in these suborbital measurements. In particular, we show that this wave formed the type II polar stratospheric clouds measured by the DC-8 lidar. To compare directly with the AMSU-A data, we convert these validated NWP temperature fields into swath-scanned brightness temperatures using three-dimensional Channel 9 weighting functions and the actual AMSU-A scan patterns from each of the 8 overpasses of this region. These NWP-based brightness temperatures contain two-dimensional oscillations due to this resolved stratospheric mountain wave that have an amplitude, wavelength

Experimental and mathematical model of the interactions in the mixed culture of links in the “producer-consumer” cycle

Science.gov (United States)

Pisman, T. I.

2009-07-01

The paper presents a experimental and mathematical model of interactions between invertebrates (the ciliates Paramecium caudatum and the rotifers Brachionus plicatilis) in the "producer-consumer" aquatic biotic cycle with spatially separated components. The model describes the dynamics of the mixed culture of ciliates and rotifers in the "consumer" component, feeding on the mixed algal culture of the "producer" component. It has been found that metabolites of the algae Scenedesmus produce an adverse effect on the reproduction of the ciliates P. caudatum. Taking into account this effect, the results of investigation of the mathematical model were in qualitative agreement with the experimental results. In the "producer-consumer" biotic cycle it was shown that coexistence is impossible in the mixed culture of invertebrates of the "consumer" component. The ciliates P. caudatum are driven out by the rotifers B. plicatilis.

A New Coupled Ocean-Waves-Atmosphere Model Designed for Tropical Storm Studies: Example of Tropical Cyclone Bejisa (2013-2014) in the South-West Indian Ocean

Science.gov (United States)

Pianezze, J.; Barthe, C.; Bielli, S.; Tulet, P.; Jullien, S.; Cambon, G.; Bousquet, O.; Claeys, M.; Cordier, E.

2018-03-01

Ocean-Waves-Atmosphere (OWA) exchanges are not well represented in current Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) systems, which can lead to large uncertainties in tropical cyclone track and intensity forecasts. In order to explore and better understand the impact of OWA interactions on tropical cyclone modeling, a fully coupled OWA system based on the atmospheric model Meso-NH, the oceanic model CROCO, and the wave model WW3 and called MSWC was designed and applied to the case of tropical cyclone Bejisa (2013-2014). The fully coupled OWA simulation shows good agreement with the literature and available observations. In particular, simulated significant wave height is within 30 cm of measurements made with buoys and altimeters. Short-term (right place (in the eyewall of the tropical cyclone) and with the right size distribution, which is critical for cloud microphysics.

Resonantly produced 7 keV sterile neutrino dark matter models and the properties of Milky Way satellites.

Science.gov (United States)

Abazajian, Kevork N

2014-04-25

Sterile neutrinos produced through a resonant Shi-Fuller mechanism are arguably the simplest model for a dark matter interpretation of the origin of the recent unidentified x-ray line seen toward a number of objects harboring dark matter. Here, I calculate the exact parameters required in this mechanism to produce the signal. The suppression of small-scale structure predicted by these models is consistent with Local Group and high-z galaxy count constraints. Very significantly, the parameters necessary in these models to produce the full dark matter density fulfill previously determined requirements to successfully match the Milky Way Galaxy's total satellite abundance, the satellites' radial distribution, and their mass density profile, or the "too-big-to-fail problem." I also discuss how further precision determinations of the detailed properties of the candidate sterile neutrino dark matter can probe the nature of the quark-hadron transition, which takes place during the dark matter production.

New Approach To Hour-By-Hour Weather Forecast

Science.gov (United States)

Liao, Q. Q.; Wang, B.

2017-12-01

Fine hourly forecast in single station weather forecast is required in many human production and life application situations. Most previous MOS (Model Output Statistics) which used a linear regression model are hard to solve nonlinear natures of the weather prediction and forecast accuracy has not been sufficient at high temporal resolution. This study is to predict the future meteorological elements including temperature, precipitation, relative humidity and wind speed in a local region over a relatively short period of time at hourly level. By means of hour-to-hour NWP (Numeral Weather Prediction)meteorological field from Forcastio (https://darksky.net/dev/docs/forecast) and real-time instrumental observation including 29 stations in Yunnan and 3 stations in Tianjin of China from June to October 2016, predictions are made of the 24-hour hour-by-hour ahead. This study presents an ensemble approach to combine the information of instrumental observation itself and NWP. Use autoregressive-moving-average (ARMA) model to predict future values of the observation time series. Put newest NWP products into the equations derived from the multiple linear regression MOS technique. Handle residual series of MOS outputs with autoregressive (AR) model for the linear property presented in time series. Due to the complexity of non-linear property of atmospheric flow, support vector machine (SVM) is also introduced . Therefore basic data quality control and cross validation makes it able to optimize the model function parameters , and do 24 hours ahead residual reduction with AR/SVM model. Results show that AR model technique is better than corresponding multi-variant MOS regression method especially at the early 4 hours when the predictor is temperature. MOS-AR combined model which is comparable to MOS-SVM model outperform than MOS. Both of their root mean square error and correlation coefficients for 2 m temperature are reduced to 1.6 degree Celsius and 0.91 respectively. The

Using ensemble forecasting for wind power

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Giebel, G.; Landberg, L.; Badger, J. [Risoe National Lab., Roskilde (Denmark); Sattler, K.

2003-07-01

Short-term prediction of wind power has a long tradition in Denmark. It is an essential tool for the operators to keep the grid from becoming unstable in a region like Jutland, where more than 27% of the electricity consumption comes from wind power. This means that the minimum load is already lower than the maximum production from wind energy alone. Danish utilities have therefore used short-term prediction of wind energy since the mid-90ies. However, the accuracy is still far from being sufficient in the eyes of the utilities (used to have load forecasts accurate to within 5% on a one-week horizon). The Ensemble project tries to alleviate the dependency of the forecast quality on one model by using multiple models, and also will investigate the possibilities of using the model spread of multiple models or of dedicated ensemble runs for a prediction of the uncertainty of the forecast. Usually, short-term forecasting works (especially for the horizon beyond 6 hours) by gathering input from a Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model. This input data is used together with online data in statistical models (this is the case eg in Zephyr/WPPT) to yield the output of the wind farms or of a whole region for the next 48 hours (only limited by the NWP model horizon). For the accuracy of the final production forecast, the accuracy of the NWP prediction is paramount. While many efforts are underway to increase the accuracy of the NWP forecasts themselves (which ultimately are limited by the amount of computing power available, the lack of a tight observational network on the Atlantic and limited physics modelling), another approach is to use ensembles of different models or different model runs. This can be either an ensemble of different models output for the same area, using different data assimilation schemes and different model physics, or a dedicated ensemble run by a large institution, where the same model is run with slight variations in initial conditions and

A gain-loss framework based on ensemble flow forecasts to switch the urban drainage-wastewater system management towards energy optimization during dry periods

Science.gov (United States)

Courdent, Vianney; Grum, Morten; Munk-Nielsen, Thomas; Mikkelsen, Peter S.

2017-05-01

Precipitation is the cause of major perturbation to the flow in urban drainage and wastewater systems. Flow forecasts, generated by coupling rainfall predictions with a hydrologic runoff model, can potentially be used to optimize the operation of integrated urban drainage-wastewater systems (IUDWSs) during both wet and dry weather periods. Numerical weather prediction (NWP) models have significantly improved in recent years, having increased their spatial and temporal resolution. Finer resolution NWP are suitable for urban-catchment-scale applications, providing longer lead time than radar extrapolation. However, forecasts are inevitably uncertain, and fine resolution is especially challenging for NWP. This uncertainty is commonly addressed in meteorology with ensemble prediction systems (EPSs). Handling uncertainty is challenging for decision makers and hence tools are necessary to provide insight on ensemble forecast usage and to support the rationality of decisions (i.e. forecasts are uncertain and therefore errors will be made; decision makers need tools to justify their choices, demonstrating that these choices are beneficial in the long run). This study presents an economic framework to support the decision-making process by providing information on when acting on the forecast is beneficial and how to handle the EPS. The relative economic value (REV) approach associates economic values with the potential outcomes and determines the preferential use of the EPS forecast. The envelope curve of the REV diagram combines the results from each probability forecast to provide the highest relative economic value for a given gain-loss ratio. This approach is traditionally used at larger scales to assess mitigation measures for adverse events (i.e. the actions are taken when events are forecast). The specificity of this study is to optimize the energy consumption in IUDWS during low-flow periods by exploiting the electrical smart grid market (i.e. the actions are taken

Doppler weather radar based nowcasting of cyclone Ogni

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

Ganges, Brahmaputra, etc. To address issues of disaster management ... Disaster Management Support Project (DMSP). Processing of Indian ...... fall estimation, etc., using Gematronik make DWR over Indian region. The quality controlled DWR data will be of great use to the NWP modelling community. In respect of the ...

Limitations of BCC_CSM's ability to predict summer precipitation over East Asia and the Northwestern Pacific

Science.gov (United States)

Gong, Zhiqiang; Dogar, Muhammad Mubashar Ahmad; Qiao, Shaobo; Hu, Po; Feng, Guolin

2017-09-01

This study examines the ability of the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model (BCC_CSM) to predict the meridional pattern of summer precipitation over East Asia-Northwest Pacific (EA-NWP) and its East Asia-Pacific (EAP) teleconnection. The differences of summer precipitation modes of the empirical orthogonal function and the bias of atmospheric circulations over EA-NWP are analyzed to determine the reason for the precipitation prediction errors. Results indicate that the BCC_CSM could not reproduce the positive-negative-positive meridional tripole pattern from south to north that differs markedly from that observed over the last 20 years. This failure can be attributed to the bias of the BCC_CSM hindcasts of the summer EAP teleconnection and the low predictability of 500 hPa at the mid-high latitude lobe of the EAP. Meanwhile, the BCC_CSM hindcasts' deficiencies of atmospheric responses to SST anomalies over the Indonesia maritime continent (IMC) resulted in opposite and geographically shifted geopotential anomalies at 500 hPa as well as wind and vorticity anomalies at 850 hPa, rendering the BCC_CSM unable to correctly reproduce the EAP teleconnection pattern. Understanding these two problems will help further improve BCC_CSM's summer precipitation forecasting ability over EA-NWP.

Limitations of BCC_CSM's ability to predict summer precipitation over East Asia and the Northwestern Pacific

KAUST Repository

Gong, Zhiqiang

2017-04-05

This study examines the ability of the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model (BCC_CSM) to predict the meridional pattern of summer precipitation over East Asia-Northwest Pacific (EA-NWP) and its East Asia-Pacific (EAP) teleconnection. The differences of summer precipitation modes of the empirical orthogonal function and the bias of atmospheric circulations over EA-NWP are analyzed to determine the reason for the precipitation prediction errors. Results indicate that the BCC_CSM could not reproduce the positive-negative-positive meridional tripole pattern from south to north that differs markedly from that observed over the last 20 years. This failure can be attributed to the bias of the BCC_CSM hindcasts of the summer EAP teleconnection and the low predictability of 500 hPa at the mid-high latitude lobe of the EAP. Meanwhile, the BCC_CSM hindcasts\\' deficiencies of atmospheric responses to SST anomalies over the Indonesia maritime continent (IMC) resulted in opposite and geographically shifted geopotential anomalies at 500 hPa as well as wind and vorticity anomalies at 850 hPa, rendering the BCC_CSM unable to correctly reproduce the EAP teleconnection pattern. Understanding these two problems will help further improve BCC_CSM\\'s summer precipitation forecasting ability over EA-NWP.

Daily reservoir inflow forecasting combining QPF into ANNs model

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Jun; Cheng, Chun-Tian; Liao, Sheng-Li; Wu, Xin-Yu; Shen, Jian-Jian

2009-01-01

Daily reservoir inflow predictions with lead-times of several days are essential to the operational planning and scheduling of hydroelectric power system. The demand for quantitative precipitation forecasting (QPF) is increasing in hydropower operation with the dramatic advances in the numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. This paper presents a simple and an effective algorithm for daily reservoir inflow predictions which solicits the observed precipitation, forecasted precipitation from QPF as predictors and discharges in following 1 to 6 days as predicted targets for multilayer perceptron artificial neural networks (MLP-ANNs) modeling. An improved error back-propagation algorithm with self-adaptive learning rate and self-adaptive momentum coefficient is used to make the supervised training procedure more efficient in both time saving and search optimization. Several commonly used error measures are employed to evaluate the performance of the proposed model and the results, compared with that of ARIMA model, show that the proposed model is capable of obtaining satisfactory forecasting not only in goodness of fit but also in generalization. Furthermore, the presented algorithm is integrated into a practical software system which has been severed for daily inflow predictions with lead-times varying from 1 to 6 days of more than twenty reservoirs operated by the Fujian Province Grid Company, China.

NKS-B NordRisk II: Nuclear risk from atmospheric dispersion in Northern Europe - Summary report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lauritzen, B.

2011-05-01

The objective of the NordRisk II project has been to derive practical means for assessing the risks from long-range atmospheric dispersion of radioactive materials. An atlas over different atmospheric dispersion and deposition scenarios has been developed using historical numerical weather prediction (NWP) model data. The NWP model data covers three years spanning the climate variability associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation, and the atlas considers radioactive releases from 16 release sites in and near the Nordic countries. A statistical analysis of the long-range dispersion and deposition patterns is undertaken to quantify the mean dispersion and deposition as well as the variability. Preliminary analyses show that the large-scale atmospheric dispersion and deposition is near-isotropic, irrespective of the release site and detailed climatology, and allows for a simple parameterization of the global dispersion and deposition patterns. The atlas and the underlying data are made available in a format compatible with the ARGOS decision support system, and have been implemented in ARGOS. (Author)

NKS-B NordRisk II: Nuclear risk from atmospheric dispersion in Northern Europe - Summary report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lauritzen, B. (Technical Univ. of Denmark, Risoe National Lab. for Sustainable Energy. Radiation Research Div., Roskilde (Denmark))

2011-05-15

The objective of the NordRisk II project has been to derive practical means for assessing the risks from long-range atmospheric dispersion of radioactive materials. An atlas over different atmospheric dispersion and deposition scenarios has been developed using historical numerical weather prediction (NWP) model data. The NWP model data covers three years spanning the climate variability associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation, and the atlas considers radioactive releases from 16 release sites in and near the Nordic countries. A statistical analysis of the long-range dispersion and deposition patterns is undertaken to quantify the mean dispersion and deposition as well as the variability. Preliminary analyses show that the large-scale atmospheric dispersion and deposition is near-isotropic, irrespective of the release site and detailed climatology, and allows for a simple parameterization of the global dispersion and deposition patterns. The atlas and the underlying data are made available in a format compatible with the ARGOS decision support system, and have been implemented in ARGOS. (Author)

A high resolution WRF model for wind energy forecasting

Science.gov (United States)

Vincent, Claire Louise; Liu, Yubao

2010-05-01

The increasing penetration of wind energy into national electricity markets has increased the demand for accurate surface layer wind forecasts. There has recently been a focus on forecasting the wind at wind farm sites using both statistical models and numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. Recent advances in computing capacity and non-hydrostatic NWP models means that it is possible to nest mesoscale models down to Large Eddy Simulation (LES) scales over the spatial area of a typical wind farm. For example, the WRF model (Skamarock 2008) has been run at a resolution of 123 m over a wind farm site in complex terrain in Colorado (Liu et al. 2009). Although these modelling attempts indicate a great hope for applying such models for detailed wind forecasts over wind farms, one of the obvious challenges of running the model at this resolution is that while some boundary layer structures are expected to be modelled explicitly, boundary layer eddies into the inertial sub-range can only be partly captured. Therefore, the amount and nature of sub-grid-scale mixing that is required is uncertain. Analysis of Liu et al. (2009) modelling results in comparison to wind farm observations indicates that unrealistic wind speed fluctuations with a period of around 1 hour occasionally occurred during the two day modelling period. The problem was addressed by re-running the same modelling system with a) a modified diffusion constant and b) two-way nesting between the high resolution model and its parent domain. The model, which was run with horizontal grid spacing of 370 m, had dimensions of 505 grid points in the east-west direction and 490 points in the north-south direction. It received boundary conditions from a mesoscale model of resolution 1111 m. Both models had 37 levels in the vertical. The mesoscale model was run with a non-local-mixing planetary boundary layer scheme, while the 370 m model was run with no planetary boundary layer scheme. It was found that increasing the

NOAA's National Snow Analyses

Science.gov (United States)

Carroll, T. R.; Cline, D. W.; Olheiser, C. M.; Rost, A. A.; Nilsson, A. O.; Fall, G. M.; Li, L.; Bovitz, C. T.

2005-12-01

NOAA's National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center (NOHRSC) routinely ingests all of the electronically available, real-time, ground-based, snow data; airborne snow water equivalent data; satellite areal extent of snow cover information; and numerical weather prediction (NWP) model forcings for the coterminous U.S. The NWP model forcings are physically downscaled from their native 13 km2 spatial resolution to a 1 km2 resolution for the CONUS. The downscaled NWP forcings drive an energy-and-mass-balance snow accumulation and ablation model at a 1 km2 spatial resolution and at a 1 hour temporal resolution for the country. The ground-based, airborne, and satellite snow observations are assimilated into the snow model's simulated state variables using a Newtonian nudging technique. The principle advantages of the assimilation technique are: (1) approximate balance is maintained in the snow model, (2) physical processes are easily accommodated in the model, and (3) asynoptic data are incorporated at the appropriate times. The snow model is reinitialized with the assimilated snow observations to generate a variety of snow products that combine to form NOAA's NOHRSC National Snow Analyses (NSA). The NOHRSC NSA incorporate all of the available information necessary and available to produce a "best estimate" of real-time snow cover conditions at 1 km2 spatial resolution and 1 hour temporal resolution for the country. The NOHRSC NSA consist of a variety of daily, operational, products that characterize real-time snowpack conditions including: snow water equivalent, snow depth, surface and internal snowpack temperatures, surface and blowing snow sublimation, and snowmelt for the CONUS. The products are generated and distributed in a variety of formats including: interactive maps, time-series, alphanumeric products (e.g., mean areal snow water equivalent on a hydrologic basin-by-basin basis), text and map discussions, map animations, and quantitative gridded products

Toward the use of a mesoscale model at a very high resolution

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gasset, N.; Benoit, R.; Masson, C. [Canada Research Chair on Nordic Environment Aerodynamics of Wind Turbines, Ottawa, ON (Canada)

2008-07-01

This presentation described a new compressible mesoscale model designed to obtain wind speed data for potential wind power resource development. Microscale modelling and computerized fluid dynamics (CFD) are used to study the mean properties of the surface layer of the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL). Mesoscale models study the temporal evolution of synoptic to mesoscale atmospheric phenomena and environmental modelling. Mesoscale modelling is essential for wind energy applications and large-scale resource evaluation, and can be compared with microscale models in order to validate input data and determine boundary conditions. The compressible community mesoscale model (MC2) was comprised of a national weather prediction (NWP) model with semi-implicit semi-Lagrangian (SISL) dynamics and compressible Euler equation solutions. Physical parameters included radiations; microphysics; thermal stratification; turbulence; and convection. The turbulence diffusion feature included unsteady Reynolds averaged Navier-Stokes; transport equations for turbulent kinetic energy; and mixing lengths. Operating modes included 3-D weather data, and surface and ground properties as well as 1-way self-nesting abilities. The validation framework for the model included a simulation of a set of realistic cases and theoretical cases including full dynamics and physics. Theoretical cases included manually imposed initial and boundary conditions and minimalist physics. Further research is being conducted to refine operating modes and boundary conditions. tabs., figs.

Establishment of a rationalized safety assurance logic aiming at FBRs with enhanced social acceptance (1). Interim report of CEA/JNC collaboration NWP-5(a) from 1999 to 2001: common view and JNC's contribution

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Niwa, Hajime; Tobita, Yoshiharu; Kurisaka, Kenichi; Kubo, Shigenobu; Kamiyama, Kenji

2001-12-01

This is an interim report describing the progress and the results of the collaborative research works between JNC and CEA on the safety logic in future fast reactors under the title of 'Establishment of a Rationalized Safety Assurance Logic Aiming at FBRs with Enhanced Social Acceptance' from 1999 to 2001. This contains JNC's contribution and common view of both partners. (1) Safety goals are proposed from JNC and CEA. Significant coherency is found such as to keep defense-in depth concept, mitigation measures against core melt are taken into account for containment design, evacuation free' concept is pursued, quantitative safety target is also considered as well as deterministic approach, and improvement of social acceptance is considered from the development stage of the fuel cycle including nuclear power plants. (2) Safety characteristics of each candidate coolant were compared and discussed. Gas-cooled fast reactor is a common interest area. Discussions are focused on: safety design requirements, safety evaluation events list, transient behavior analysis, core catcher designs, and so on. (3) JNC's results include criticality map for predicting CDA behavior and consequences, and CDA analysis results of lead-cooled and gas-cooled fast reactors with SIMMER-III. The collaboration on the action NWP-5a is recognized as being of great importance for the orientation of the innovative design studies. (author)

Validation of a Previously Developed Geospatial Model That Predicts the Prevalence of Listeria monocytogenes in New York State Produce Fields

Science.gov (United States)

Weller, Daniel; Shiwakoti, Suvash; Bergholz, Peter; Grohn, Yrjo; Wiedmann, Martin

2015-01-01

Technological advancements, particularly in the field of geographic information systems (GIS), have made it possible to predict the likelihood of foodborne pathogen contamination in produce production environments using geospatial models. Yet, few studies have examined the validity and robustness of such models. This study was performed to test and refine the rules associated with a previously developed geospatial model that predicts the prevalence of Listeria monocytogenes in produce farms in New York State (NYS). Produce fields for each of four enrolled produce farms were categorized into areas of high or low predicted L. monocytogenes prevalence using rules based on a field's available water storage (AWS) and its proximity to water, impervious cover, and pastures. Drag swabs (n = 1,056) were collected from plots assigned to each risk category. Logistic regression, which tested the ability of each rule to accurately predict the prevalence of L. monocytogenes, validated the rules based on water and pasture. Samples collected near water (odds ratio [OR], 3.0) and pasture (OR, 2.9) showed a significantly increased likelihood of L. monocytogenes isolation compared to that for samples collected far from water and pasture. Generalized linear mixed models identified additional land cover factors associated with an increased likelihood of L. monocytogenes isolation, such as proximity to wetlands. These findings validated a subset of previously developed rules that predict L. monocytogenes prevalence in produce production environments. This suggests that GIS and geospatial models can be used to accurately predict L. monocytogenes prevalence on farms and can be used prospectively to minimize the risk of preharvest contamination of produce. PMID:26590280

Exploring writing institutes for teachers in South Africa | Dippenaar ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Several thousand teachers in the US participate each year in these invitational summer institutes, which are based on the NWP's model of teachers teaching teachers. The US Embassy's Regional English Language Office in South Africa collaborated with directors of writing projects in the United States, and South Africans ...

Relative performance of different numerical weather prediction models for short term predition of wind wnergy

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Giebel, G; Landberg, L [Risoe National Lab., Wind Energy and Atmospheric Physics Dept., Roskilde (Denmark); Moennich, K; Waldl, H P [Carl con Ossietzky Univ., Faculty of Physics, Dept. of Energy and Semiconductor, Oldenburg (Germany)

1999-03-01

In several approaches presented in other papers in this conference, short term forecasting of wind power for a time horizon covering the next two days is done on the basis of Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models. This paper explores the relative merits of HIRLAM, which is the model used by the Danish Meteorological Institute, the Deutschlandmodell from the German Weather Service and the Nested Grid Model used in the US. The performance comparison will be mainly done for a site in Germany which is in the forecasting area of both the Deutschlandmodell and HIRLAM. In addition, a comparison of measured data with the forecasts made for one site in Iowa will be included, which allows conclusions on the merits of all three models. Differences in the relative performances could be due to a better tailoring of one model to its country, or to a tighter grid, or could be a function of the distance between the grid points and the measuring site. Also the amount, in which the performance can be enhanced by the use of model output statistics (topic of other papers in this conference) could give insights into the performance of the models. (au)

Data Assimilation in the Solar Wind: Challenges and First Results.

Science.gov (United States)

Lang, Matthew; Browne, Philip; van Leeuwen, Peter Jan; Owens, Mathew

2017-11-01

Data assimilation (DA) is used extensively in numerical weather prediction (NWP) to improve forecast skill. Indeed, improvements in forecast skill in NWP models over the past 30 years have directly coincided with improvements in DA schemes. At present, due to data availability and technical challenges, DA is underused in space weather applications, particularly for solar wind prediction. This paper investigates the potential of advanced DA methods currently used in operational NWP centers to improve solar wind prediction. To develop the technical capability, as well as quantify the potential benefit, twin experiments are conducted to assess the performance of the Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (LETKF) in the solar wind model ENLIL. Boundary conditions are provided by the Wang-Sheeley-Arge coronal model and synthetic observations of density, temperature, and momentum generated every 4.5 h at 0.6 AU. While in situ spacecraft observations are unlikely to be routinely available at 0.6 AU, these techniques can be applied to remote sensing of the solar wind, such as with Heliospheric Imagers or interplanetary scintillation. The LETKF can be seen to improve the state at the observation location and advect that improvement toward the Earth, leading to an improvement in forecast skill in near-Earth space for both the observed and unobserved variables. However, sharp gradients caused by the analysis of a single observation in space resulted in artificial wavelike structures being advected toward Earth. This paper is the first attempt to apply DA to solar wind prediction and provides the first in-depth analysis of the challenges and potential solutions.

Semi-empirical model for the generation of dose distributions produced by a scanning electron beam

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nath, R.; Gignac, C.E.; Agostinelli, A.G.; Rothberg, S.; Schulz, R.J.

1980-01-01

There are linear accelerators (Sagittaire and Saturne accelerators produced by Compagnie Generale de Radiologie (CGR/MeV) Corporation) which produce broad, flat electron fields by magnetically scanning the relatively narrow electron beam as it emerges from the accelerator vacuum system. A semi-empirical model, which mimics the scanning action of this type of accelerator, was developed for the generation of dose distributions in homogeneous media. The model employs the dose distributions of the scanning electron beams. These were measured with photographic film in a polystyrene phantom by turning off the magnetic scanning system. The mean deviation calculated from measured dose distributions is about 0.2%; a few points have deviations as large as 2 to 4% inside of the 50% isodose curve, but less than 8% outside of the 50% isodose curve. The model has been used to generate the electron beam library required by a modified version of a commercially-available computerized treatment-planning system. (The RAD-8 treatment planning system was purchased from the Digital Equipment Corporation. It is currently available from Electronic Music Industries

Validation of a Previously Developed Geospatial Model That Predicts the Prevalence of Listeria monocytogenes in New York State Produce Fields.

Science.gov (United States)

Weller, Daniel; Shiwakoti, Suvash; Bergholz, Peter; Grohn, Yrjo; Wiedmann, Martin; Strawn, Laura K

2016-02-01

Technological advancements, particularly in the field of geographic information systems (GIS), have made it possible to predict the likelihood of foodborne pathogen contamination in produce production environments using geospatial models. Yet, few studies have examined the validity and robustness of such models. This study was performed to test and refine the rules associated with a previously developed geospatial model that predicts the prevalence of Listeria monocytogenes in produce farms in New York State (NYS). Produce fields for each of four enrolled produce farms were categorized into areas of high or low predicted L. monocytogenes prevalence using rules based on a field's available water storage (AWS) and its proximity to water, impervious cover, and pastures. Drag swabs (n = 1,056) were collected from plots assigned to each risk category. Logistic regression, which tested the ability of each rule to accurately predict the prevalence of L. monocytogenes, validated the rules based on water and pasture. Samples collected near water (odds ratio [OR], 3.0) and pasture (OR, 2.9) showed a significantly increased likelihood of L. monocytogenes isolation compared to that for samples collected far from water and pasture. Generalized linear mixed models identified additional land cover factors associated with an increased likelihood of L. monocytogenes isolation, such as proximity to wetlands. These findings validated a subset of previously developed rules that predict L. monocytogenes prevalence in produce production environments. This suggests that GIS and geospatial models can be used to accurately predict L. monocytogenes prevalence on farms and can be used prospectively to minimize the risk of preharvest contamination of produce. Copyright © 2016, American Society for Microbiology. All Rights Reserved.

Opioid Mechanism Involvement in the Synergism Produced by the Combination of Diclofenac and Caffeine in the Formalin Model

OpenAIRE

Flores-Ramos, Jos? Mar?a; D?az-Reval, M. Irene

2013-01-01

Analgesics can be administered in combination with caffeine for improved analgesic effectiveness in a process known as synergism. The mechanisms by which these combinations produce synergism are not yet fully understood. The aim of this study was to analyze whether the administration of diclofenac combined with caffeine produced antinociceptive synergism and whether opioid mechanisms played a role in this event. The formalin model was used to evaluate the antinociception produced by the oral ...

FOOTPRINT: A Screening Model for Estimating the Area of a Plume Produced From Gasoline Containing Ethanol

Science.gov (United States)

FOOTPRINT is a screening model used to estimate the length and surface area of benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, and xylene (BTEX) plumes in groundwater, produced from a gasoline spill that contains ethanol.

Thermodynamic modelling of an onsite methanation reactor for upgrading producer gas from commercial small scale biomass gasifiers.

Science.gov (United States)

Vakalis, S; Malamis, D; Moustakas, K

2018-06-15

Small scale biomass gasifiers have the advantage of having higher electrical efficiency in comparison to other conventional small scale energy systems. Nonetheless, a major drawback of small scale biomass gasifiers is the relatively poor quality of the producer gas. In addition, several EU Member States are seeking ways to store the excess energy that is produced from renewables like wind power and hydropower. A recent development is the storage of energy by electrolysis of water and the production of hydrogen in a process that is commonly known as "power-to-gas". The present manuscript proposes an onsite secondary reactor for upgrading producer gas by mixing it with hydrogen in order to initiate methanation reactions. A thermodynamic model has been developed for assessing the potential of the proposed methanation process. The model utilized input parameters from a representative small scale biomass gasifier and molar ratios of hydrogen from 1:0 to 1:4.1. The Villar-Cruise-Smith algorithm was used for minimizing the Gibbs free energy. The model returned the molar fractions of the permanent gases, the heating values and the Wobbe Index. For mixtures of hydrogen and producer gas on a 1:0.9 ratio the increase of the heating value is maximized with an increase of 78%. For ratios higher than 1:3, the Wobbe index increases significantly and surpasses the value of 30 MJ/Nm 3 . Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Modeling Framework for Predicting the Size of Sediments Produced on Hillslopes and Supplied to Channels

Science.gov (United States)

Sklar, L. S.; Mahmoudi, M.

2016-12-01

Landscape evolution models rarely represent sediment size explicitly, despite the importance of sediment size in regulating rates of bedload sediment transport, river incision into bedrock, and many other processes in channels and on hillslopes. A key limitation has been the lack of a general model for predicting the size of sediments produced on hillslopes and supplied to channels. Here we present a framework for such a model, as a first step toward building a `geomorphic transport law' that balances mechanistic realism with computational simplicity and is widely applicable across diverse landscapes. The goal is to take as inputs landscape-scale boundary conditions such as lithology, climate and tectonics, and predict the spatial variation in the size distribution of sediments supplied to channels across catchments. The model framework has two components. The first predicts the initial size distribution of particles produced by erosion of bedrock underlying hillslopes, while the second accounts for the effects of physical and chemical weathering during transport down slopes and delivery to channels. The initial size distribution can be related to the spacing and orientation of fractures within bedrock, which depend on the stresses and deformation experienced during exhumation and on rock resistance to fracture propagation. Other controls on initial size include the sizes of mineral grains in crystalline rocks, the sizes of cemented particles in clastic sedimentary rocks, and the potential for characteristic size distributions produced by tree throw, frost cracking, and other erosional processes. To model how weathering processes transform the initial size distribution we consider the effects of erosion rate and the thickness of soil and weathered bedrock on hillslope residence time. Residence time determines the extent of size reduction, for given values of model terms that represent the potential for chemical and physical weathering. Chemical weathering potential

Distribution Modeling of three screwworm species in the ecologically diverse landscape of North West Pakistan.

Science.gov (United States)

Zaidi, Farrah; Fatima, Syeda Hira; Khisroon, Muhammad; Gul, Ayesha

2016-10-01

North West Pakistan (NWP) is characterized by four eco-zones: Northern Montane Region, North Western Hills, Submontane Region and Indus Plains. Present study identified 1037 cases of traumatic myiasis in the region during 2012-2015. Screw worm larvae were classified as 12 species: Chrysomya bezziana (Villeneuve), Chryomya megacephala (Fabricius), Chrysomya rufifacies (Macquart), Lucilia cuprina (Wiedemann), Lucilia sericata (Meigen), Lucilia illustris (Meigen), Lucilia porphyrina (Walker), Hemipyrellia ligguriens (Wiedemann), Calliphora vicina (Robineau-Desvoidy), Wohlfahrtia magnifica (Schiner), Sarcophaga crassipalpalis (Macquart), Sarchophaga species. Among these C. bezziana, L. cuprina and W. magnifica with approximately 882 case reports were the principal agents of traumatic myiasis. The species W. magnifica is a first report from Pakistan. In order to investigate spatial distribution of these dominant species we used MaxEnt niche model. Our results revealed a well-established occurrence of C. bezziana and L. cuprina in the four eco-regions while W. magnifica is currently contained in the Submontane Region. Several hot spot areas of infestation were detected all characterized by high human population density showing synanthropic nature of these species. Wohlfahrtia magnifica was excluded from Northern Montane Region with severe winters and Southern Indus Plains with harsh summers revealing that invasive species are initially sensitive to extreme of temperatures. Presence of L. cuprina in the wet areas of North Humid Belt (Maximum annual precipitation: 1641mm) depicted a moisture preference of the species. In perspective of changing climate and future predictions of severe events such as droughts and flooding in NWP, W. magnifica can potentially alter the species composition. Considering these findings in an eco-geographically dynamic region of Pakistan we predict that two factors (1) Growing human population (2) Climatic conditions, equally contribute to range

Confirmation and calibration of computer modeling of tsunamis produced by Augustine volcano, Alaska

Science.gov (United States)

Beget, James E.; Kowalik, Zygmunt

2006-01-01

Numerical modeling has been used to calculate the characteristics of a tsunami generated by a landslide into Cook Inlet from Augustine Volcano. The modeling predicts travel times of ca. 50-75 minutes to the nearest populated areas, and indicates that significant wave amplification occurs near Mt. Iliamna on the western side of Cook Inlet, and near the Nanwelak and the Homer-Anchor Point areas on the east side of Cook Inlet. Augustine volcano last produced a tsunami during an eruption in 1883, and field evidence of the extent and height of the 1883 tsunamis can be used to test and constrain the results of the computer modeling. Tsunami deposits on Augustine Island indicate waves near the landslide source were more than 19 m high, while 1883 tsunami deposits in distal sites record waves 6-8 m high. Paleotsunami deposits were found at sites along the coast near Mt. Iliamna, Nanwelak, and Homer, consistent with numerical modeling indicating significant tsunami wave amplification occurs in these areas. 

Investigation of radiopharmaceuticals from cyclotron produced radionuclides and development of mathematical models. Part of a coordinated programme on production of radiopharmaceuticals from accelerator-produced isotopes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Slaus, I.

1983-04-01

Several radioisotopes for diagnostic uses in nuclear medicine studies are produced using the internal 15 MeV (30 MeV alphas) deuteron beam of the ''Ruder Boskovic'' Institute in Zagreb, Yugoslavia. Some of the most important radioisotopes produced during the last few years are: Gallium-67 (d, xn reaction on a Cu/Ni/Zn target) with yield of 7.6 MBq/uAh, 81 Rb-sup(81m)Kr generator (α, 2n reaction on a Cu/Cu 2 Br 2 target) with a yield of 99 MBq/uAh, Iodine-123 (α, 2n reaction on a Cu/Ag/Sb target) with a yield of 6.3 MBq/uAh, and Indium-111 (α, 2n reaction on a Cu/Cu/Ag target) with a yield of 7.2 MBq/uAh. In addition, a simple mathematical lung model for regional ventilation measurements was developed and used for ventilation studies on normal subjects and subjects with various lung diseases. Based on these studies, a more sophisticated and quantitative lung ventilation model for radioactive tracer tidal breathing was further developed. In this new model, the periodicity of breathing is completely taken into account, and it makes possible to actually determine lung ventilation and volume parameters. The model is experimentally verified on healthy subjects, and the value of the effective specific ventilation obtained is in agreement with comparable parameters in the literature. sup(81m)Kr from a generator was used to perform these experimental studies

Functional copmponents produced by multi-jet modelling combined with electroforming and machining

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Baier, Oliver

2014-08-01

Full Text Available In fuel cell technology, certain components are used that are responsible for guiding liquid media. When these components are produced by conventional manufacturing, there are often sealing issues, and trouble- and maintenance-free deployment cannot be ensured. Against this background, a new process combination has been developed in a joint project between the University of Duisburg-Essen, the Center for Fuel Cell Technology (ZBT, and the company Galvano-T electroplating forming GmbH. The approach is to combine multi-jet modelling (MJM, electroforming and milling in order to produce a defined external geometry. The wax models are generated on copper base plates and copper-coated to a desirable thickness. Following this, the undefined electroplated surfaces are machined to achieve the desired measurement, and the wax is melted out. This paper presents, first, how this process is technically feasible, then describes how the MJM on a 3-D Systems ThermoJet was adapted to stabilise the process.In the AiF-sponsored ZIM project, existing limits and possibilities are shown and different approaches of electroplating are investigated. This paper explores whether or not activation of the wax structure by a conductive initial layer is required. Using the described process chain, different parts were built: a heat exchanger, a vaporiser, and a reformer (in which pellets were integrated in an intermediate step. In addition, multiple-layer parts with different functions were built by repeating the process combination several times.

Can single classifiers be as useful as model ensembles to produce benthic seabed substratum maps?

Science.gov (United States)

Turner, Joseph A.; Babcock, Russell C.; Hovey, Renae; Kendrick, Gary A.

2018-05-01

Numerous machine-learning classifiers are available for benthic habitat map production, which can lead to different results. This study highlights the performance of the Random Forest (RF) classifier, which was significantly better than Classification Trees (CT), Naïve Bayes (NB), and a multi-model ensemble in terms of overall accuracy, Balanced Error Rate (BER), Kappa, and area under the curve (AUC) values. RF accuracy was often higher than 90% for each substratum class, even at the most detailed level of the substratum classification and AUC values also indicated excellent performance (0.8-1). Total agreement between classifiers was high at the broadest level of classification (75-80%) when differentiating between hard and soft substratum. However, this sharply declined as the number of substratum categories increased (19-45%) including a mix of rock, gravel, pebbles, and sand. The model ensemble, produced from the results of all three classifiers by majority voting, did not show any increase in predictive performance when compared to the single RF classifier. This study shows how a single classifier may be sufficient to produce benthic seabed maps and model ensembles of multiple classifiers.

Journal of Earth System Science | Indian Academy of Sciences

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

The MME technique for the cyclone track prediction is based on multiple linear regression technique. The predictor selected for the MME are forecast latitude and longitude positions of cyclone at 12-hr intervals up to 120 hours forecasts from five NWP models namely, IMD-GFS, IMD-WRF, NCEP-GFS, UKMO, and JMA.

Manifestation of a neuro-fuzzy model to produce landslide susceptibility map using remote sensing data derived parameters

Science.gov (United States)

Pradhan, Biswajeet; Lee, Saro; Buchroithner, Manfred

Landslides are the most common natural hazards in Malaysia. Preparation of landslide suscep-tibility maps is important for engineering geologists and geomorphologists. However, due to complex nature of landslides, producing a reliable susceptibility map is not easy. In this study, a new attempt is tried to produce landslide susceptibility map of a part of Cameron Valley of Malaysia. This paper develops an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) based on a geographic information system (GIS) environment for landslide susceptibility mapping. To ob-tain the neuro-fuzzy relations for producing the landslide susceptibility map, landslide locations were identified from interpretation of aerial photographs and high resolution satellite images, field surveys and historical inventory reports. Landslide conditioning factors such as slope, plan curvature, distance to drainage lines, soil texture, lithology, and distance to lineament were extracted from topographic, soil, and lineament maps. Landslide susceptible areas were analyzed by the ANFIS model and mapped using the conditioning factors. Furthermore, we applied various membership functions (MFs) and fuzzy relations to produce landslide suscep-tibility maps. The prediction performance of the susceptibility map is checked by considering actual landslides in the study area. Results show that, triangular, trapezoidal, and polynomial MFs were the best individual MFs for modelling landslide susceptibility maps (86

A mathematical model for surface roughness of fluidic channels produced by grinding aided electrochemical discharge machining (G-ECDM

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ladeesh V. G.

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Grinding aided electrochemical discharge machining is a hybrid technique, which combines the grinding action of an abrasive tool and thermal effects of electrochemical discharges to remove material from the workpiece for producing complex contours. The present study focuses on developing fluidic channels on borosilicate glass using G-ECDM and attempts to develop a mathematical model for surface roughness of the machined channel. Preliminary experiments are conducted to study the effect of machining parameters on surface roughness. Voltage, duty factor, frequency and tool feed rate are identified as the significant factors for controlling surface roughness of the channels produced by G-ECDM. A mathematical model was developed for surface roughness by considering the grinding action and thermal effects of electrochemical discharges in material removal. Experiments are conducted to validate the model and the results obtained are in good agreement with that predicted by the model.

Short-term forecasting model for aggregated regional hydropower generation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Monteiro, Claudio; Ramirez-Rosado, Ignacio J.; Fernandez-Jimenez, L. Alfredo

2014-01-01

Highlights: • Original short-term forecasting model for the hourly hydropower generation. • The use of NWP forecasts allows horizons of several days. • New variable to represent the capacity level for generating hydroelectric energy. • The proposed model significantly outperforms the persistence model. - Abstract: This paper presents an original short-term forecasting model of the hourly electric power production for aggregated regional hydropower generation. The inputs of the model are previously recorded values of the aggregated hourly production of hydropower plants and hourly water precipitation forecasts using Numerical Weather Prediction tools, as well as other hourly data (load demand and wind generation). This model is composed of three modules: the first one gives the prediction of the “monthly” hourly power production of the hydropower plants; the second module gives the prediction of hourly power deviation values, which are added to that obtained by the first module to achieve the final forecast of the hourly hydropower generation; the third module allows a periodic adjustment of the prediction of the first module to improve its BIAS error. The model has been applied successfully to the real-life case study of the short-term forecasting of the aggregated hydropower generation in Spain and Portugal (Iberian Peninsula Power System), achieving satisfactory results for the next-day forecasts. The model can be valuable for agents involved in electricity markets and useful for power system operations

Journal of Earth System Science | Indian Academy of Sciences

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

Home; Journals; Journal of Earth System Science. Aditi Singh. Articles written in Journal of Earth System Science. Volume 127 Issue 2 March 2018 pp 26. Prediction of fog/visibility over India using NWP Model · Aditi Singh John P George Gopal Raman Iyengar · More Details Abstract Fulltext PDF. Frequent occurrence of fog ...

Down-scaling wind energy resource from mesoscale to local scale by nesting and data assimilation with a CFD model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Duraisamy Jothiprakasam, Venkatesh

2014-01-01

The development of wind energy generation requires precise and well-established methods for wind resource assessment, which is the initial step in every wind farm project. During the last two decades linear flow models were widely used in the wind industry for wind resource assessment and micro-siting. But the linear models inaccuracies in predicting the wind speeds in very complex terrain are well known and led to use of CFD, capable of modeling the complex flow in details around specific geographic features. Mesoscale models (NWP) are able to predict the wind regime at resolutions of several kilometers, but are not well suited to resolve the wind speed and turbulence induced by the topography features on the scale of a few hundred meters. CFD has proven successful in capturing flow details at smaller scales, but needs an accurate specification of the inlet conditions. Thus coupling NWP and CFD models is a better modeling approach for wind energy applications. A one-year field measurement campaign carried out in a complex terrain in southern France during 2007-2008 provides a well-documented data set both for input and validation data. The proposed new methodology aims to address two problems: the high spatial variation of the topography on the domain lateral boundaries, and the prediction errors of the mesoscale model. It is applied in this work using the open source CFD code Code-Saturne, coupled with the mesoscale forecast model of Meteo-France (ALADIN). The improvement is obtained by combining the mesoscale data as inlet condition and field measurement data assimilation into the CFD model. Newtonian relaxation (nudging) data assimilation technique is used to incorporate the measurement data into the CFD simulations. The methodology to reconstruct long term averages uses a clustering process to group the similar meteorological conditions and to reduce the number of CFD simulations needed to reproduce 1 year of atmospheric flow over the site. The assimilation

An Experimental High-Resolution Forecast System During the Vancouver 2010 Winter Olympic and Paralympic Games

Science.gov (United States)

Mailhot, J.; Milbrandt, J. A.; Giguère, A.; McTaggart-Cowan, R.; Erfani, A.; Denis, B.; Glazer, A.; Vallée, M.

2014-01-01

Environment Canada ran an experimental numerical weather prediction (NWP) system during the Vancouver 2010 Winter Olympic and Paralympic Games, consisting of nested high-resolution (down to 1-km horizontal grid-spacing) configurations of the GEM-LAM model, with improved geophysical fields, cloud microphysics and radiative transfer schemes, and several new diagnostic products such as density of falling snow, visibility, and peak wind gust strength. The performance of this experimental NWP system has been evaluated in these winter conditions over complex terrain using the enhanced mesoscale observing network in place during the Olympics. As compared to the forecasts from the operational regional 15-km GEM model, objective verification generally indicated significant added value of the higher-resolution models for near-surface meteorological variables (wind speed, air temperature, and dewpoint temperature) with the 1-km model providing the best forecast accuracy. Appreciable errors were noted in all models for the forecasts of wind direction and humidity near the surface. Subjective assessment of several cases also indicated that the experimental Olympic system was skillful at forecasting meteorological phenomena at high-resolution, both spatially and temporally, and provided enhanced guidance to the Olympic forecasters in terms of better timing of precipitation phase change, squall line passage, wind flow channeling, and visibility reduction due to fog and snow.

IASI hyperspectral radiances in the NCMRWF 4D-VAR assimilation system: OSE

Science.gov (United States)

Sharma, Priti; Indira Rani, S.; Mallick, Swapan; Srinivas, D.; George, John P.; Dasgupta, Munmun

2016-04-01

Accuracy of global NWP depends more on the contribution of satellite data than the surface based observations. This is achieved through the better usage of satellite data within the data assimilation system. Efforts are going on at NCMRWF to add more and more satellite data in the assimilation system both from Indian and international satellites in geostationary and polar orbits. Impact of the new dataset is assessed through Observation System Experiments (OSEs), through which the impact of the data is evaluated comparing the forecast output with that of a control run. This paper discusses one such OSEs with Infrared Atmospheric Sounder Interferometer (IASI) onboard MetOp-A and B. IASI is the main payload instrument for the purpose of supporting NWP. IASI provides information on the vertical structure of the atmospheric temperature and humidity with an accuracy of 1K and a vertical resolution of 1 km, which is necessary to improve NWP. IASI measures the radiance emitted from the Earth in 8641 channels, covering the spectral interval 645-2760 cm-1. The high volume data resulting from IASI presents many challenges, particularly in the area of assimilation. Out of these 8641 channels, 314 channels are selected depending on the relevance of information in each channel to assimilate in the NCMRWF 4D-VAR assimilation system. Studies show that the use of IASI data in NWP accounts for 40% of the impact of all satellite observations in the NWP forecasts, especially microwave and hyperspectral infrared sounding techniques are found to give the largest impacts

Inoculum effect on the efficacies of amoxicillin-clavulanate, piperacillin-tazobactam, and imipenem against extended-spectrum β-lactamase (ESBL)-producing and non-ESBL-producing Escherichia coli in an experimental murine sepsis model.

Science.gov (United States)

Docobo-Pérez, F; López-Cerero, L; López-Rojas, R; Egea, P; Domínguez-Herrera, J; Rodríguez-Baño, J; Pascual, A; Pachón, J

2013-05-01

Escherichia coli is commonly involved in infections with a heavy bacterial burden. Piperacillin-tazobactam and carbapenems are among the recommended empirical treatments for health care-associated complicated intra-abdominal infections. In contrast to amoxicillin-clavulanate, both have reduced in vitro activity in the presence of high concentrations of extended-spectrum β-lactamase (ESBL)-producing and non-ESBL-producing E. coli bacteria. Our goal was to compare the efficacy of these antimicrobials against different concentrations of two clinical E. coli strains, one an ESBL-producer and the other a non-ESBL-producer, in a murine sepsis model. An experimental sepsis model {~5.5 log10 CFU/g [low inoculum concentration (LI)] or ~7.5 log(10) CFU/g [high inoculum concentration (HI)]} using E. coli strains ATCC 25922 (non-ESBL producer) and Ec1062 (CTX-M-14 producer), which are susceptible to the three antimicrobials, was used. Amoxicillin-clavulanate (50/12.5 mg/kg given intramuscularly [i.m.]), piperacillin-tazobactam (25/3.125 mg/kg given intraperitoneally [i.p.]), and imipenem (30 mg/kg i.m.) were used. Piperacillin-tazobactam and imipenem reduced spleen ATCC 25922 strain concentrations (-2.53 and -2.14 log10 CFU/g [P imipenem, and amoxicillin-clavulanate, respectively, although imipenem and amoxicillin-clavulanate were more efficacious than piperacillin-tazobactam). An adapted imipenem treatment (based on the time for which the serum drug concentration remained above the MIC obtained with a HI of the ATCC 25922 strain) improved its efficacy to -1.67 log10 CFU/g (P imipenem treatment of infections caused by ESBL- and non-ESBL-producing E. coli strains in patients with therapeutic failure with piperacillin-tazobactam.

Storm surge and wave simulations in the Gulf of Mexico using a consistent drag relation for atmospheric and storm surge models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

D. Vatvani

2012-07-01

Full Text Available To simulate winds and water levels, numerical weather prediction (NWP and storm surge models generally use the traditional bulk relation for wind stress, which is characterized by a wind drag coefficient. A still commonly used drag coefficient in those models, some of them were developed in the past, is based on a relation, according to which the magnitude of the coefficient is either constant or increases monotonically with increasing surface wind speed (Bender, 2007; Kim et al., 2008; Kohno and Higaki, 2006. The NWP and surge models are often tuned independently from each other in order to obtain good results. Observations have indicated that the magnitude of the drag coefficient levels off at a wind speed of about 30 m s⁻¹, and then decreases with further increase of the wind speed. Above a wind speed of approximately 30 m s⁻¹, the stress above the air-sea interface starts to saturate. To represent the reducing and levelling off of the drag coefficient, the original Charnock drag formulation has been extended with a correction term.

In line with the above, the Delft3D storm surge model is tested using both Charnock's and improved Makin's wind drag parameterization to evaluate the improvements on the storm surge model results, with and without inclusion of the wave effects. The effect of waves on storm surge is included by simultaneously simulating waves with the SWAN model on identical model grids in a coupled mode. However, the results presented here will focus on the storm surge results that include the wave effects.

The runs were carried out in the Gulf of Mexico for Katrina and Ivan hurricane events. The storm surge model was initially forced with H^*wind data (Powell et al., 2010 to test the effect of the Makin's wind drag parameterization on the storm surge model separately. The computed wind, water levels and waves are subsequently compared with observation data. Based on the good

Nowcasting of 1-h precipitation using radar and NWP data

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Sokol, Zbyněk

2006-01-01

Roč. 328, 1-2 (2006), s. 200-211 ISSN 0022-1694 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA205/04/0114; GA AV ČR IBS3042101 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z30420517 Keywords : Precipitation forecast * Regression models * Nowcasting * Radar Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 2.117, year: 2006

Modeling of wear behavior of Al/B_4C composites produced by powder metallurgy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sahin, Ismail; Bektas, Asli; Guel, Ferhat; Cinci, Hanifi

2017-01-01

Wear characteristics of composites, Al matrix reinforced with B_4C particles percentages of 5, 10,15 and 20 produced by the powder metallurgy method were studied in this study. For this purpose, a mixture of Al and B_4C powders were pressed under 650 MPa pressure and then sintered at 635 C. The analysis of hardness, density and microstructure was performed. The produced samples were worn using a pin-on-disk abrasion device under 10, 20 and 30 N load through 500, 800 and 1200 mesh SiC abrasive papers. The obtained wear values were implemented in an artificial neural network (ANN) model having three inputs and one output using feed forward backpropagation Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm. Thus, the optimum wear conditions and hardness values were determined.

Wind power forecast

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Pestana, Rui [Rede Electrica Nacional (REN), S.A., Lisboa (Portugal). Dept. Systems and Development System Operator; Trancoso, Ana Rosa; Delgado Domingos, Jose [Univ. Tecnica de Lisboa (Portugal). Seccao de Ambiente e Energia

2012-07-01

Accurate wind power forecast are needed to reduce integration costs in the electric grid caused by wind inherent variability. Currently, Portugal has a significant wind power penetration level and consequently the need to have reliable wind power forecasts at different temporal scales, including localized events such as ramps. This paper provides an overview of the methodologies used by REN to forecast wind power at national level, based on statistical and probabilistic combinations of NWP and measured data with the aim of improving accuracy of pure NWP. Results show that significant improvement can be achieved with statistical combination with persistence in the short-term and with probabilistic combination in the medium-term. NWP are also able to detect ramp events with 3 day notice to the operational planning. (orig.)

Unified Aerosol Microphysics for NWP

Science.gov (United States)

2013-09-30

it may be treated as a generic variable such as when it is processed by advection, or it may be used specifically like dust in ice nucleation...interactions. We shifted instead to a winter-time passage of a low pressure system across North Africa and the Mediterranean Sea (Figure 1). The strong...MODIS multispectral albedo data, MODIS land surface data, and the NRL DSD for SW Asia and E Asia a multi-variate, non-linear classification was

Solar irradiance assessment in insular areas using Himawari-8 satellite images

Science.gov (United States)

Liandrat, O.; Cros, S.; Turpin, M.; Pineau, J. F.

2016-12-01

The high amount of surface solar irradiance (SSI) in the tropics is an advantage for a profitable PV production. It will allow many tropical islands to pursue their economic growth with a clean, affordable and locally produced energy. However, the local meteorological conditions induce a very high variability which is problematic for a safe and gainful injection into the power grid. This issue is even more critical in non-interconnected territories where network stability is an absolute necessity. Therefore, the injection of PV power is legally limited in some European oversea territories. In this context, intraday irradiance forecasting (several hours ahead) is particularly useful to mitigate the production variability by reducing the cost of power storage management. At this time scale, cloud cover evolves with a stochastic behaviour not properly represented in numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. Analysing cloud motion using images from geostationary meteorological satellites is a well-known alternative to forecasting SSI up to 6 hours ahead with a better accuracy than NWP models. In this study, we present and apply our satellite-based solar irradiance forecasting methods over two measurement sites located in the field of view of the satellite Himawari-8: Cocos (Keeling) Islands (Australia) and New Caledonia (France). In particular, we converted 4 months of images from Himawari-8 visible channel into cloud index maps. Then, we applied an algorithm computing a cloud motion vector field from a short sequence of consecutive images. Comparisons between forecasted SSI at 1 hour of time horizon and collocated pyranometric measurements show a relative RMSE between 20 and 27%. Error sources related to the tropic insular context (coastal area heterogeneity, sub-pixel scale orographic cloud appearance, convective situation…) are discussed at every implementation step for the different methods.

Improving Satellite Observation Utilization for Model Initialization with Machine Learning: An Introduction and Tackling the "Labeled Dataset" Challenge for Cyclones Around the World

Science.gov (United States)

Bonfanti, C. E.; Stewart, J.; Lee, Y. J.; Govett, M.; Trailovic, L.; Etherton, B.

2017-12-01

One of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) goals is to provide timely and reliable weather forecasts to support important decisions when and where people need it for safety, emergencies, planning for day-to-day activities. Satellite data is essential for areas lacking in-situ observations for use as initial conditions in Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) Models, such as spans of the ocean or remote areas of land. Currently only about 7% of total received satellite data is selected for use and from that, an even smaller percentage ever are assimilated into NWP models. With machine learning, the computational and time costs needed for satellite data selection can be greatly reduced. We study various machine learning approaches to process orders of magnitude more satellite data in significantly less time allowing for a greater quantity and more intelligent selection of data to be used for assimilation purposes. Given the future launches of satellites in the upcoming years, machine learning is capable of being applied for better selection of Regions of Interest (ROI) in the magnitudes more of satellite data that will be received. This paper discusses the background of machine learning methods as applied to weather forecasting and the challenges of creating a "labeled dataset" for training and testing purposes. In the training stage of supervised machine learning, labeled data are important to identify a ROI as either true or false so that the model knows what signatures in satellite data to identify. Authors have selected cyclones, including tropical cyclones and mid-latitude lows, as ROI for their machine learning purposes and created a labeled dataset of true or false for ROI from Global Forecast System (GFS) reanalysis data. A dataset like this does not yet exist and given the need for a high quantity of samples, is was decided this was best done with automation. This process was done by developing a program similar to the National Center for

Footprint (A Screening Model for Estimating the Area of a Plume Produced from Gasoline Containing Ethanol

Science.gov (United States)

FOOTPRINT is a simple and user-friendly screening model to estimate the length and surface area of BTEX plumes in ground water produced from a spill of gasoline that contains ethanol. Ethanol has a potential negative impact on the natural biodegradation of BTEX compounds in groun...

A subgrid parameterization scheme for precipitation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. Turner

2012-04-01

Full Text Available With increasing computing power, the horizontal resolution of numerical weather prediction (NWP models is improving and today reaches 1 to 5 km. Nevertheless, clouds and precipitation formation are still subgrid scale processes for most cloud types, such as cumulus and stratocumulus. Subgrid scale parameterizations for water vapor condensation have been in use for many years and are based on a prescribed probability density function (PDF of relative humidity spatial variability within the model grid box, thus providing a diagnosis of the cloud fraction. A similar scheme is developed and tested here. It is based on a prescribed PDF of cloud water variability and a threshold value of liquid water content for droplet collection to derive a rain fraction within the model grid. Precipitation of rainwater raises additional concerns relative to the overlap of cloud and rain fractions, however. The scheme is developed following an analysis of data collected during field campaigns in stratocumulus (DYCOMS-II and fair weather cumulus (RICO and tested in a 1-D framework against large eddy simulations of these observed cases. The new parameterization is then implemented in a 3-D NWP model with a horizontal resolution of 2.5 km to simulate real cases of precipitating cloud systems over France.

A semi-empirical model for mesospheric and stratospheric NOy produced by energetic particle precipitation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

B. Funke

2016-07-01

Full Text Available The MIPAS Fourier transform spectrometer on board Envisat has measured global distributions of the six principal reactive nitrogen (NOy compounds (HNO3, NO2, NO, N2O5, ClONO2, and HNO4 during 2002–2012. These observations were used previously to detect regular polar winter descent of reactive nitrogen produced by energetic particle precipitation (EPP down to the lower stratosphere, often called the EPP indirect effect. It has further been shown that the observed fraction of NOy produced by EPP (EPP-NOy has a nearly linear relationship with the geomagnetic Ap index when taking into account the time lag introduced by transport. Here we exploit these results in a semi-empirical model for computation of EPP-modulated NOy densities and wintertime downward fluxes through stratospheric and mesospheric pressure levels. Since the Ap dependence of EPP-NOy is distorted during episodes of strong descent in Arctic winters associated with elevated stratopause events, a specific parameterization has been developed for these episodes. This model accurately reproduces the observations from MIPAS and is also consistent with estimates from other satellite instruments. Since stratospheric EPP-NOy depositions lead to changes in stratospheric ozone with possible implications for climate, the model presented here can be utilized in climate simulations without the need to incorporate many thermospheric and upper mesospheric processes. By employing historical geomagnetic indices, the model also allows for reconstruction of the EPP indirect effect since 1850. We found secular variations of solar cycle-averaged stratospheric EPP-NOy depositions on the order of 1 GM. In particular, we model a reduction of the EPP-NOy deposition rate during the last 3 decades, related to the coincident decline of geomagnetic activity that corresponds to 1.8 % of the NOy production rate by N2O oxidation. As the decline of the geomagnetic activity level is expected to continue in the

Simulation of Flash-Flood-Producing Storm Events in Saudi Arabia Using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model

KAUST Repository

Deng, Liping; McCabe, Matthew; Stenchikov, Georgiy L.; Evans, Jason P.; Kucera, Paul A.

2015-01-01

The challenges of monitoring and forecasting flash-flood-producing storm events in data-sparse and arid regions are explored using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model (version 3.5) in conjunction with a range of available satellite

Stable Boundary Layer Issues

OpenAIRE

Steeneveld, G.J.

2012-01-01

Understanding and prediction of the stable atmospheric boundary layer is a challenging task. Many physical processes are relevant in the stable boundary layer, i.e. turbulence, radiation, land surface coupling, orographic turbulent and gravity wave drag, and land surface heterogeneity. The development of robust stable boundary layer parameterizations for use in NWP and climate models is hampered by the multiplicity of processes and their unknown interactions. As a result, these models suffer ...

Nonlinear filtering with particle filters

OpenAIRE

Haslehner, Mylène

2014-01-01

Convective phenomena in the atmosphere, such as convective storms, are characterized by very fast, intermittent and seemingly stochastic processes. They are thus difficult to predict with Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models, and difficult to estimate with data assimilation methods that combine prediction and observations. In this thesis, nonlinear data assimilation methods are tested on two idealized convective scale cloud models, developed in [58] and [59]. The aim of this work was to ...

The global change challenge: a regional perspective

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Engelbrecht, F

2012-10-01

Full Text Available with resolution about 210 km Climate Modelling at the CSIR NRE ? NWP and RCM capacity build around the conformal-cubic atmospheric model (CCAM) of the CSIRO ? A cube-based global model; semi-Lagrangian semi-implicit solution of the primitive equations... to impact on crop yield, livestock, biodiversity and energy demand ? CSIR 2007 www.csir.co.za RCM ens-ave projected change in annual rainfall (%) for 2071-2100 vs 1961-1990 Southern Africa projected to become generally drier...

Využití asimilace radarové odrazivosti pro velmi krátkodobou předpověď srážek

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Sokol, Zbyněk

2007-01-01

Roč. 60, č. 5 (2007), s. 136-146 ISSN 0026-1173 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA205/07/0905; GA ČR GA205/04/0114 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z30420517 Keywords : very short range forecast * heavy convective precipitation * method of evaluation * NWP models * assimilation of radar reflectivity Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology

Diurnal Evolution and Annual Variability of Boundary Layer Height in the Columbia River Gorge through the `Eye' of Wind Profiling Radars

Science.gov (United States)

Bianco, L.; Djalalova, I.; Konopleva-Akish, E.; Kenyon, J.; Olson, J. B.; Wilczak, J. M.

2016-12-01

The Second Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP2) is a DoE- and NOAA-sponsored program whose goal is to improve the accuracy of numerical weather prediction (NWP) forecasts in complex terrain. WFIP2 consists of an 18-month (October 2015 - March 2017) field campaign held in the Columbia River basin, in the Pacific Northwest of the U.S. As part of WFIP2 a large suite of in-situ and remote sensing instrumentation has been deployed, including, among several others, a network of eight 915-MHz wind profiling radars (WPRs) equipped with radio acoustic sounding systems (RASSs), and many surface meteorological stations. The diurnal evolution and annual variability of boundary layer height in the area of WFIP2 will be investigated through the `eye' of WPRs, employing state-of-the-art automated algorithms, based on fuzzy logic and artificial intelligence. The results will be used to evaluate possible errors in NWP models in this area of complex terrain.

Rapid Prototyping — A Tool for Presenting 3-Dimensional Digital Models Produced by Terrestrial Laser Scanning

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Juho-Pekka Virtanen

2014-07-01

Full Text Available Rapid prototyping has received considerable interest with the introduction of affordable rapid prototyping machines. These machines can be used to manufacture physical models from three-dimensional digital mesh models. In this paper, we compare the results obtained with a new, affordable, rapid prototyping machine, and a traditional professional machine. Two separate data sets are used for this, both of which were acquired using terrestrial laser scanning. Both of the machines were able to produce complex and highly detailed geometries in plastic material from models based on terrestrial laser scanning. The dimensional accuracies and detail levels of the machines were comparable, and the physical artifacts caused by the fused deposition modeling (FDM technique used in the rapid prototyping machines could be found in both models. The accuracy of terrestrial laser scanning exceeded the requirements for manufacturing physical models of large statues and building segments at a 1:40 scale.

Modeling of wear behavior of Al/B{sub 4}C composites produced by powder metallurgy

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sahin, Ismail; Bektas, Asli [Gazi Univ., Ankara (Turkey). Dept. of Industrial Design Engineering; Guel, Ferhat; Cinci, Hanifi [Gazi Univ., Ankara (Turkey). Dept. of Materials and Metallurgy Engineering

2017-06-01

Wear characteristics of composites, Al matrix reinforced with B{sub 4}C particles percentages of 5, 10,15 and 20 produced by the powder metallurgy method were studied in this study. For this purpose, a mixture of Al and B{sub 4}C powders were pressed under 650 MPa pressure and then sintered at 635 C. The analysis of hardness, density and microstructure was performed. The produced samples were worn using a pin-on-disk abrasion device under 10, 20 and 30 N load through 500, 800 and 1200 mesh SiC abrasive papers. The obtained wear values were implemented in an artificial neural network (ANN) model having three inputs and one output using feed forward backpropagation Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm. Thus, the optimum wear conditions and hardness values were determined.

Integrating statistical and process-based models to produce probabilistic landslide hazard at regional scale

Science.gov (United States)

Strauch, R. L.; Istanbulluoglu, E.

2017-12-01

We develop a landslide hazard modeling approach that integrates a data-driven statistical model and a probabilistic process-based shallow landslide model for mapping probability of landslide initiation, transport, and deposition at regional scales. The empirical model integrates the influence of seven site attribute (SA) classes: elevation, slope, curvature, aspect, land use-land cover, lithology, and topographic wetness index, on over 1,600 observed landslides using a frequency ratio (FR) approach. A susceptibility index is calculated by adding FRs for each SA on a grid-cell basis. Using landslide observations we relate susceptibility index to an empirically-derived probability of landslide impact. This probability is combined with results from a physically-based model to produce an integrated probabilistic map. Slope was key in landslide initiation while deposition was linked to lithology and elevation. Vegetation transition from forest to alpine vegetation and barren land cover with lower root cohesion leads to higher frequency of initiation. Aspect effects are likely linked to differences in root cohesion and moisture controlled by solar insulation and snow. We demonstrate the model in the North Cascades of Washington, USA and identify locations of high and low probability of landslide impacts that can be used by land managers in their design, planning, and maintenance.

Simulations of radiocarbon in a coarse-resolution world ocean model 2. Distributions of bomb-produced Carbon 14

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Toggweiler, J.R.; Dixon, K.; Bryan, K.

1989-01-01

Part 1 of this study examined the ability of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) primitive equation ocean general circulation model to simulate the steady state distribution of naturally produced 14 C in the ocean prior to the nuclear bomb tests of the 1950's and early 1960's. In part 2 begin with the steady state distributions of part 1 and subject the model to the pulse of elevated atmospheric 14 C concentrations observed since the 1950's

Nowcasting of precipitation by an NWP model using assimilation of extrapolated radar reflectivity

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Sokol, Zbyněk; Zacharov, Petr, jr.

2012-01-01

Roč. 138, č. 665 (2012), s. 1072-1082 ISSN 0035-9009 Institutional support: RVO:68378289 Keywords : precipitation forecast * radar extrapolation Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 3.327, year: 2012 http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/qj.970/abstract

Verification of cloud field simulated by the NWP model with MSG-SEVIRI data

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Bližňák, Vojtěch; Sokol, Zbyněk; Zacharov, Petr, jr.

-, - (2014) [EUMETSAT Meteorological Satellite Conference. 22.09.2014–26.09.2014, Ženeva] Institutional support: RVO:68378289 Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology https://events.kuoni-dmc.com/ei3/images/EUMETSAT14/Abstract/PDF/All_abstracts.pdf

A supply function model for representing the strategic bidding of the producers in constrained electricity markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bompard, Ettore; Napoli, Roberto; Lu, Wene; Jiang, Xiuchen

2010-01-01

The modeling of the bidding behaviour of the producer is a key-point in the modeling and simulation of the competitive electricity markets. In our paper, the linear supply function model is applied so as to find the Supply Function Equilibrium analytically. It also proposed a new and efficient approach to find SFEs for the network constrained electricity markets by finding the best slope of the supply function with the help of changing the intercept, and the method can be applied on the large systems. The approach proposed is applied to study IEEE-118 bus test systems and the comparison between bidding slope and bidding intercept is presented, as well, with reference to the test system. (author)

Adaptive Blending of Model and Observations for Automated Short-Range Forecasting: Examples from the Vancouver 2010 Olympic and Paralympic Winter Games

Science.gov (United States)

Bailey, Monika E.; Isaac, George A.; Gultepe, Ismail; Heckman, Ivan; Reid, Janti

2014-01-01

An automated short-range forecasting system, adaptive blending of observations and model (ABOM), was tested in real time during the 2010 Vancouver Olympic and Paralympic Winter Games in British Columbia. Data at 1-min time resolution were available from a newly established, dense network of surface observation stations. Climatological data were not available at these new stations. This, combined with output from new high-resolution numerical models, provided a unique and exciting setting to test nowcasting systems in mountainous terrain during winter weather conditions. The ABOM method blends extrapolations in time of recent local observations with numerical weather predictions (NWP) model predictions to generate short-range point forecasts of surface variables out to 6 h. The relative weights of the model forecast and the observation extrapolation are based on performance over recent history. The average performance of ABOM nowcasts during February and March 2010 was evaluated using standard scores and thresholds important for Olympic events. Significant improvements over the model forecasts alone were obtained for continuous variables such as temperature, relative humidity and wind speed. The small improvements to forecasts of variables such as visibility and ceiling, subject to discontinuous changes, are attributed to the persistence component of ABOM.

An Economic Analysis of Container Shipping Through Canadian Northwest Passage

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dongqin Lu

2014-12-01

This paper considers Canada's sovereignty in matters of navigation over the waters at the Arctic Archipelago, in the form of a toll fee for passage usage. We concluded that the NWP has an advantage over the Panama Canal if it is open for free international passage, regardless of ship size. However, if it is not free, its advantages depend on its toll fee. The lower the toll fee is, the more advantages the NWP will boast.

Air-sea exchange and gas-particle partitioning of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons over the northwestern Pacific Ocean: Role of East Asian continental outflow

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Z.; Guo, Z.

2017-12-01

We measured 15 parent polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in atmosphere and water during a research cruise from the East China Sea (ECS) to the northwestern Pacific Ocean (NWP) in the spring of 2015 to investigate the occurrence, air-sea gas exchange, and gas-particle partitioning of PAHs with a particular focus on the influence of East Asian continental outflow. The gaseous PAH composition and identification of sources were consistent with PAHs from the upwind area, indicating that the gaseous PAHs (three- to five-ring PAHs) were influenced by upwind land pollution. In addition, air-sea exchange fluxes of gaseous PAHs were estimated to be -54.2 to 107.4 ng m-2 d-1, and was indicative of variations of land-based PAH inputs. The logarithmic gas-particle partition coefficient (logKp) of PAHs regressed linearly against the logarithmic subcooled liquid vapor pressure, with a slope of -0.25. This was significantly larger than the theoretical value (-1), implying disequilibrium between the gaseous and particulate PAHs over the NWP. The non-equilibrium of PAH gas-particle partitioning was shielded from the volatilization of three-ring gaseous PAHs from seawater and lower soot concentrations in particular when the oceanic air masses prevailed. Modeling PAH absorption into organic matter and adsorption onto soot carbon revealed that the status of PAH gas-particle partitioning deviated more from the modeling Kp for oceanic air masses than those for continental air masses, which coincided with higher volatilization of three-ring PAHs and confirmed the influence of air-sea exchange. Meanwhile, significant linear regressions between logKp and logKoa (logKsa) for PAHs were observed for continental air masses, suggesting the dominant effect of East Asian continental outflow on atmospheric PAHs over the NWP during the sampling campaign.

Impacts of field of view configuration of Cross-track Infrared Sounder on clear-sky observations.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Likun; Chen, Yong; Han, Yong

2016-09-01

Hyperspectral infrared radiance measurements from satellite sensors contain valuable information on atmospheric temperature and humidity profiles and greenhouse gases, and therefore are directly assimilated into numerical weather prediction (NWP) models as inputs for weather forecasting. However, data assimilations in current operational NWP models still mainly rely on cloud-free observations due to the challenge of simulating cloud-contaminated radiances when using hyperspectral radiances. The limited spatial coverage of the 3×3 field of views (FOVs) in one field of regard (FOR) (i.e., spatial gap among FOVs) as well as relatively large footprint size (14 km) in current Cross-track Infrared Sounder (CrIS) instruments limits the amount of clear-sky observations. This study explores the potential impacts of future CrIS FOV configuration (including FOV size and spatial coverage) on the amount of clear-sky observations by simulation experiments. The radiance measurements and cloud mask products (VCM) from the Visible Infrared Imager Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) are used to simulate CrIS clear-sky observation under different FOV configurations. The results indicate that, given the same FOV coverage (e.g., 3×3), the percentage of clear-sky FOVs and the percentage of clear-sky FORs (that contain at least one clear-sky FOV) both increase as the FOV size decreases. In particular, if the CrIS FOV size were reduced from 14 km to 7 km, the percentage of clear-sky FOVs increases from 9.02% to 13.51% and the percentage of clear-sky FORs increases from 18.24% to 27.51%. Given the same FOV size but with increasing FOV coverage in each FOR, the clear-sky FOV observations increases proportionally with the increasing sampling FOVs. Both reducing FOV size and increasing FOV coverage can result in more clear-sky FORs, which benefit data utilization of NWP data assimilation.

A new mouse model for renal lesions produced by intravenous injection of diphtheria toxin A-chain expression plasmid

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nakamura Shingo

2004-04-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Various animal models of renal failure have been produced and used to investigate mechanisms underlying renal disease and develop therapeutic drugs. Most methods available to produce such models appear to involve subtotal nephrectomy or intravenous administration of antibodies raised against basement membrane of glomeruli. In this study, we developed a novel method to produce mouse models of renal failure by intravenous injection of a plasmid carrying a toxic gene such as diphtheria toxin A-chain (DT-A gene. DT-A is known to kill cells by inhibiting protein synthesis. Methods An expression plasmid carrying the cytomegalovirus enhancer/chicken β-actin promoter linked to a DT-A gene was mixed with lipid (FuGENE™6 and the resulting complexes were intravenously injected into adult male B6C3F1 mice every day for up to 6 days. After final injection, the kidneys of these mice were sampled on day 4 and weeks 3 and 5. Results H-E staining of the kidney specimens sampled on day 4 revealed remarkable alterations in glomerular compartments, as exemplified by mesangial cell proliferation and formation of extensive deposits in glomerular basement membrane. At weeks 3 and 5, gradual recovery of these tissues was observed. These mice exhibited proteinuria and disease resembling sub-acute glomerulonephritis. Conclusions Repeated intravenous injections of DT-A expression plasmid DNA/lipid complex caused temporary abnormalities mainly in glomeruli of mouse kidney. The disease in these mice resembles sub-acute glomerulonephritis. These DT-A gene-incorporated mice will be useful as animal models in the fields of nephrology and regenerative medicine.

Modeling of a Reaction-Distillation-Recycle System to Produce Dimethyl Ether through Methanol Dehydration

Science.gov (United States)

Muharam, Y.; Zulkarnain, L. M.; Wirya, A. S.

2018-03-01

The increase in the dimethyl ether yield through methanol dehydration due to a recycle integration to a reaction-distillation system was studied in this research. A one-dimensional phenomenological model of a methanol dehydration reactor and a shortcut model of distillation columns were used to achieve the aim. Simulation results show that 10.7 moles/s of dimethyl ether is produced in a reaction-distillation system with the reactor length being 4 m, the reactor inlet pressure being 18 atm, the reactor inlet temperature being 533 K, the reactor inlet velocity being 0.408 m/s, and the distillation pressure being 8 atm. The methanol conversion is 90% and the dimethyl ether yield is 48%. The integration of the recycle stream to the system increases the dimethyl ether yield by 8%.

Mathematical modeling of growth of non-O157 Shiga Toxin-producing Escherichia coli in raw ground beef

Science.gov (United States)

The objective of this study was to investigate the growth of Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli (STEC, including serogroups O45, O103, O111, O121, and O145) in raw ground beef and to develop mathematical models to describe the bacterial growth under different temperature conditions. Three prima...

Modeling of X-ray emissions produced by stepping lightning leaders

OpenAIRE

Xu , Wei; Celestin , Sebastien; Pasko , Victor P.

2014-01-01

International audience; Intense and brief bursts of X-ray emissions have been measured during the stepping processof both natural cloud-to-ground (CG) and rocket-triggered lightning flashes. In this paper, we investigatetheoretically the energy spectra of X-rays produced by the bremsstrahlung emission of thermal runawayelectrons accelerated in the inhomogeneous electric field produced around lightning leader tips. The X-rayenergy spectrum depends on the physical properties of the associated l...

Updates to the Demographic and Spatial Allocation Models to Produce Integrated Climate and Land Use Scenarios (ICLUS) (Final Report, Version 2)

Science.gov (United States)

EPA's announced the availability of the final report, Updates to the Demographic and Spatial Allocation Models to Produce Integrated Climate and Land Use Scenarios (ICLUS) (Version 2). This update furthered land change modeling by providing nationwide housing developmen...

Impact of Forecast and Model Error Correlations In 4dvar Data Assimilation

Science.gov (United States)

Zupanski, M.; Zupanski, D.; Vukicevic, T.; Greenwald, T.; Eis, K.; Vonder Haar, T.

A weak-constraint 4DVAR data assimilation system has been developed at Cooper- ative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA), Colorado State University. It is based on the NCEP's ETA 4DVAR system, and it is fully parallel (MPI coding). The CIRA's 4DVAR system is aimed for satellite data assimilation research, with cur- rent focus on assimilation of cloudy radiances and microwave satellite measurements. Most important improvement over the previous 4DVAR system is a degree of gener- ality introduced into the new algorithm, namely for applications with different NWP models (e.g., RAMS, WRF, ETA, etc.), and for the choice of control variable. In cur- rent applications, the non-hydrostatic RAMS model and its adjoint are used, including all microphysical processess. The control variable includes potential temperature, ve- locity potential and stream function, vertical velocity, and seven mixing ratios with respect to all water phases. Since the statistics of the microphysical components of the control variable is not well known, a special attention will be paid to the impact of the forecast and model (prior) error correlations on the 4DVAR analysis. In particular, the sensitivity of the analysis with respect to decorrelation length will be examined. The prior error covariances are modelled using the compactly-supported, space-limited correlations developed at NASA DAO.

The EUMETSAT OSI SAF near 50 GHz sea ice emissivity model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rasums T. Tonboe

2013-02-01

Full Text Available A sea ice thermal microwave emission model for 50 GHz was developed under EUMETSAT's Ocean and Sea Ice Satellite Application Facility (OSI SAF programme. The model is based on correlations between the surface brightness temperature at 18, 36 and 50 GHz. The model coefficients are estimated using simulated data from a combined thermodynamic and emission model. The intention with the model is to provide a first guess sea ice surface emissivity estimate for atmospheric temperature sounding applications in the troposphere in numerical weather prediction (NWP models assimilating Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU and Special Sensor Microwave Imager/Sounder (SSMIS data. The spectral gradient ratio is defined as the difference over the sum of the SSMIS brightness temperatures at 18 and 36 GHz vertical linear polarisation (GR1836. The GR1836 is related to the emissivity at the atmospheric temperature sounding channels at around 50 GHz. Furthermore, the brightness temperatures and the polarisation ratio (PR at the neighbouring 18, 36 and 50 GHz channels are highly correlated. Both the gradient ratio at 18 and 36 GHz and the PR at 36 GHz measured by SSMIS are input into the model predicting the 50 GHz emissivity for horizontal and vertical linear polarisations and incidence angles between 0° and 60° The simulated emissivity is compared to the emissivity derived with alternative methods. The fit to real AMSU observations is investigated using the different emissivity estimates for simulating the observations with atmospheric data from a regional weather prediction model.

Cost modelling of electricity producing hot dry rock (HDR) geothermal systems in the UK

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Doherty, P.S.

1992-03-01

A detailed and comprehensive cost model for Hot Dry Rock (HDR) electricity producing systems has been developed in this study. The model takes account of the major aspects of the HDR system, parameterized in terms of the main physical and cost parameters of the resource and the utilization system. A doublet configuration is assumed, and the conceptual HDR system which is defined in the study is based upon the UK Department of Energy (DEn) HDR geothermal R and D programme. The model has been used to calculate the costs of HDR electricity for a UK defined base case which represents a consensus view of what might be achieved in Cornwall in the long term. At 14.2 p/kWh (1988 costs) this cost appears to be unacceptably high. A wide-ranging sensitivity study has also been carried out on the main resource, geometrical, and operational parameters of the HDR system centred around the UK base case. The sensitivity study shows the most important parameters to be thermal gradient and depth. (Author)

Inability to produce a model of dialysis encephalopathy in the rat by aluminum administration.

Science.gov (United States)

Perry, T L; Yong, V W; Godolphin, W J; Sutter, M; Hansen, S; Kish, S J; Foulks, J G; Ito, M

1987-04-01

We attempted to produce a rat model of brain aluminum toxicity in order to explore whether or not aluminum accumulation produces the neurochemical changes observed in brains of patients who die with dialysis encephalopathy. Daily subcutaneous injection of Al(OH)3 caused marked elevation of serum aluminum concentrations, but did not increase brain aluminum contents, either in rats with normal renal function, or in rats with unilateral or 5/6 nephrectomies. LiCl pretreatment, which has been reported to cause irreversible renal failure, did not impair renal function nor aid in achieving elevated brain aluminum contents. No reductions in brain contents of gamma-aminobutyric acid (GABA) or in glutamic acid decarboxylase (GAD, E.C.4.1.1.15) and choline acetyltransferase (ChAT, E.C.2.3.1.6) activities were observed in aluminum-treated rats. We conclude that the rat is not a suitable laboratory animal to explore the role of aluminum toxicity in causing the GABA and ChAT deficits present in brains of hemodialyzed human patients.

Improving weather forecasts for wind energy applications

Science.gov (United States)

Kay, Merlinde; MacGill, Iain

2010-08-01

Weather forecasts play an important role in the energy industry particularly because of the impact of temperature on electrical demand. Power system operation requires that this variable and somewhat unpredictable demand be precisely met at all times and locations from available generation. As wind generation makes up a growing component of electricity supply around the world, it has become increasingly important to be able to provide useful forecasting for this highly variable and uncertain energy resource. Of particular interest are forecasts of weather events that rapidly change wind energy production from one or more wind farms. In this paper we describe work underway to improve the wind forecasts currently available from standard Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) through a bias correction methodology. Our study has used the Australian Bureau of Meteorology MesoLAPS 5 km limited domain model over the Victoria/Tasmania region, providing forecasts for the Woolnorth wind farm, situated in Tasmania, Australia. The accuracy of these forecasts has been investigated, concentrating on the key wind speed ranges 5 - 15 ms-1 and around 25 ms-1. A bias correction methodology was applied to the NWP hourly forecasts to help account for systematic issues such as the NWP grid point not being at the exact location of the wind farm. An additional correction was applied for timing issues by using meteorological data from the wind farm. Results to date show a reduction in spread of forecast error for hour ahead forecasts by as much as half using this double correction methodology - a combination of both bias correction and timing correction.

Improving weather forecasts for wind energy applications

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kay, Merlinde; MacGill, Iain

2010-01-01

Weather forecasts play an important role in the energy industry particularly because of the impact of temperature on electrical demand. Power system operation requires that this variable and somewhat unpredictable demand be precisely met at all times and locations from available generation. As wind generation makes up a growing component of electricity supply around the world, it has become increasingly important to be able to provide useful forecasting for this highly variable and uncertain energy resource. Of particular interest are forecasts of weather events that rapidly change wind energy production from one or more wind farms. In this paper we describe work underway to improve the wind forecasts currently available from standard Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) through a bias correction methodology. Our study has used the Australian Bureau of Meteorology MesoLAPS 5 km limited domain model over the Victoria/Tasmania region, providing forecasts for the Woolnorth wind farm, situated in Tasmania, Australia. The accuracy of these forecasts has been investigated, concentrating on the key wind speed ranges 5 - 15 ms -1 and around 25 ms -1 . A bias correction methodology was applied to the NWP hourly forecasts to help account for systematic issues such as the NWP grid point not being at the exact location of the wind farm. An additional correction was applied for timing issues by using meteorological data from the wind farm. Results to date show a reduction in spread of forecast error for hour ahead forecasts by as much as half using this double correction methodology - a combination of both bias correction and timing correction.

Evaluation of TIGGE Ensemble Forecasts of Precipitation in Distinct Climate Regions in Iran

Science.gov (United States)

Aminyavari, Saleh; Saghafian, Bahram; Delavar, Majid

2018-04-01

The application of numerical weather prediction (NWP) products is increasing dramatically. Existing reports indicate that ensemble predictions have better skill than deterministic forecasts. In this study, numerical ensemble precipitation forecasts in the TIGGE database were evaluated using deterministic, dichotomous (yes/no), and probabilistic techniques over Iran for the period 2008-16. Thirteen rain gauges spread over eight homogeneous precipitation regimes were selected for evaluation. The Inverse Distance Weighting and Kriging methods were adopted for interpolation of the prediction values, downscaled to the stations at lead times of one to three days. To enhance the forecast quality, NWP values were post-processed via Bayesian Model Averaging. The results showed that ECMWF had better scores than other products. However, products of all centers underestimated precipitation in high precipitation regions while overestimating precipitation in other regions. This points to a systematic bias in forecasts and demands application of bias correction techniques. Based on dichotomous evaluation, NCEP did better at most stations, although all centers overpredicted the number of precipitation events. Compared to those of ECMWF and NCEP, UKMO yielded higher scores in mountainous regions, but performed poorly at other selected stations. Furthermore, the evaluations showed that all centers had better skill in wet than in dry seasons. The quality of post-processed predictions was better than those of the raw predictions. In conclusion, the accuracy of the NWP predictions made by the selected centers could be classified as medium over Iran, while post-processing of predictions is recommended to improve the quality.

Modeling of X-ray Images and Energy Spectra Produced by Stepping Lightning Leaders

Science.gov (United States)

Xu, Wei; Marshall, Robert A.; Celestin, Sebastien; Pasko, Victor P.

2017-11-01

Recent ground-based measurements at the International Center for Lightning Research and Testing (ICLRT) have greatly improved our knowledge of the energetics, fluence, and evolution of X-ray emissions during natural cloud-to-ground (CG) and rocket-triggered lightning flashes. In this paper, using Monte Carlo simulations and the response matrix of unshielded detectors in the Thunderstorm Energetic Radiation Array (TERA), we calculate the energy spectra of X-rays as would be detected by TERA and directly compare with the observational data during event MSE 10-01. The good agreement obtained between TERA measurements and theoretical calculations supports the mechanism of X-ray production by thermal runaway electrons during the negative corona flash stage of stepping lightning leaders. Modeling results also suggest that measurements of X-ray bursts can be used to estimate the approximate range of potential drop of lightning leaders. Moreover, the X-ray images produced during the leader stepping process in natural negative CG discharges, including both the evolution and morphological features, are theoretically quantified. We show that the compact emission pattern as recently observed in X-ray images is likely produced by X-rays originating from the source region, and the diffuse emission pattern can be explained by the Compton scattering effects.

Producer services, economic geography, and services tradability

NARCIS (Netherlands)

de Vaal, A; van den Berg, M

We investigate how the incorporation of producer services linkages affects the outcome of an economic geography model. We specify the production of manufactures such that a variety of producer services is needed to transform tradable unfinished goods into final consumption goods. We find that

Simulation of Flash-Flood-Producing Storm Events in Saudi Arabia Using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model

KAUST Repository

Deng, Liping

2015-05-01

The challenges of monitoring and forecasting flash-flood-producing storm events in data-sparse and arid regions are explored using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model (version 3.5) in conjunction with a range of available satellite, in situ, and reanalysis data. Here, we focus on characterizing the initial synoptic features and examining the impact of model parameterization and resolution on the reproduction of a number of flood-producing rainfall events that occurred over the western Saudi Arabian city of Jeddah. Analysis from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) interim reanalysis (ERA-Interim) data suggests that mesoscale convective systems associated with strong moisture convergence ahead of a trough were the major initial features for the occurrence of these intense rain events. The WRF Model was able to simulate the heavy rainfall, with driving convective processes well characterized by a high-resolution cloud-resolving model. The use of higher (1 km vs 5 km) resolution along the Jeddah coastline favors the simulation of local convective systems and adds value to the simulation of heavy rainfall, especially for deep-convection-related extreme values. At the 5-km resolution, corresponding to an intermediate study domain, simulation without a cumulus scheme led to the formation of deeper convective systems and enhanced rainfall around Jeddah, illustrating the need for careful model scheme selection in this transition resolution. In analysis of multiple nested WRF simulations (25, 5, and 1 km), localized volume and intensity of heavy rainfall together with the duration of rainstorms within the Jeddah catchment area were captured reasonably well, although there was evidence of some displacements of rainstorm events.

Integrated Wind Power Planning Tool

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rosgaard, M. H.; Giebel, Gregor; Nielsen, T. S.

2012-01-01

model to be developed in collaboration with ENFOR A/S; a danish company that specialises in forecasting and optimisation for the energy sector. This integrated prediction model will allow for the description of the expected variability in wind power production in the coming hours to days, accounting......This poster presents the current state of the public service obligation (PSO) funded project PSO 10464, with the working title "Integrated Wind Power Planning Tool". The project commenced October 1, 2011, and the goal is to integrate a numerical weather prediction (NWP) model with purely...

Skill of Predicting Heavy Rainfall Over India: Improvement in Recent Years Using UKMO Global Model

Science.gov (United States)

Sharma, Kuldeep; Ashrit, Raghavendra; Bhatla, R.; Mitra, A. K.; Iyengar, G. R.; Rajagopal, E. N.

2017-11-01

The quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) performance for heavy rains is still a challenge, even for the most advanced state-of-art high-resolution Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) modeling systems. This study aims to evaluate the performance of UK Met Office Unified Model (UKMO) over India for prediction of high rainfall amounts (>2 and >5 cm/day) during the monsoon period (JJAS) from 2007 to 2015 in short range forecast up to Day 3. Among the various modeling upgrades and improvements in the parameterizations during this period, the model horizontal resolution has seen an improvement from 40 km in 2007 to 17 km in 2015. Skill of short range rainfall forecast has improved in UKMO model in recent years mainly due to increased horizontal and vertical resolution along with improved physics schemes. Categorical verification carried out using the four verification metrics, namely, probability of detection (POD), false alarm ratio (FAR), frequency bias (Bias) and Critical Success Index, indicates that QPF has improved by >29 and >24% in case of POD and FAR. Additionally, verification scores like EDS (Extreme Dependency Score), EDI (Extremal Dependence Index) and SEDI (Symmetric EDI) are used with special emphasis on verification of extreme and rare rainfall events. These scores also show an improvement by 60% (EDS) and >34% (EDI and SEDI) during the period of study, suggesting an improved skill of predicting heavy rains.

Interaction among competitive producers in the electricity market: An iterative market model for the strategic management of thermal power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Carraretto, Cristian; Zigante, Andrea

2006-01-01

The liberalization of the electricity sector requires utilities to develop sound operation strategies for their power plants. In this paper, attention is focused on the problem of optimizing the management of the thermal power plants belonging to a strategic producer that competes with other strategic companies and a set of smaller non-strategic ones in the day-ahead market. The market model suggested here determines an equilibrium condition over the selected period of analysis, in which no producer can increase profits by changing its supply offers given all rivals' bids. Power plants technical and operating constraints are considered. An iterative procedure, based on the dynamic programming, is used to find the optimum production plans of each producer. Some combinations of power plants and number of producers are analyzed, to simulate for instance the decommissioning of old expensive power plants, the installation of new more efficient capacity, the severance of large dominant producers into smaller utilities, the access of new producers to the market. Their effect on power plants management, market equilibrium, electricity quantities traded and prices is discussed. (author)

Implementation of Bessel's method for solar eclipses prediction in the WRF-ARW model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. Montornès

2016-05-01

Full Text Available Solar eclipses are predictable astronomical events that abruptly reduce the incoming solar radiation into the Earth's atmosphere, which frequently results in non-negligible changes in meteorological fields. The meteorological impacts of these events have been analyzed in many studies since the late 1960s. The recent growth in the solar energy industry has greatly increased the interest in providing more detail in the modeling of solar radiation variations in numerical weather prediction (NWP models for the use in solar resource assessment and forecasting applications. The significant impact of the recent partial and total solar eclipses that occurred in the USA (23 October 2014 and Europe (20 March 2015 on solar power generation have provided additional motivation and interest for including these astronomical events in the current solar parameterizations.Although some studies added solar eclipse episodes within NWP codes in the 1990s and 2000s, they used eclipse parameterizations designed for a particular case study. In contrast to these earlier implementations, this paper documents a new package for the Weather Research and Forecasting–Advanced Research WRF (WRF-ARW model that can simulate any partial, total or hybrid solar eclipse for the period 1950 to 2050 and is also extensible to a longer period. The algorithm analytically computes the trajectory of the Moon's shadow and the degree of obscuration of the solar disk at each grid point of the domain based on Bessel's method and the Five Millennium Catalog of Solar Eclipses provided by NASA, with a negligible computational time. Then, the incoming radiation is modified accordingly at each grid point of the domain.This contribution is divided in three parts. First, the implementation of Bessel's method is validated for solar eclipses in the period 1950–2050, by comparing the shadow trajectory with values provided by NASA. Latitude and longitude are determined with a bias lower than 5�

Comparison of reconstructed rapid prototyping models produced by 3-dimensional printing and conventional stone models with different degrees of crowding.

Science.gov (United States)

Wan Hassan, Wan Nurazreena; Yusoff, Yusnilawati; Mardi, Noor Azizi

2017-01-01

Rapid prototyping models can be reconstructed from stereolithographic digital study model data to produce hard-copy casts. In this study, we aimed to compare agreement and accuracy of measurements made with rapid prototyping and stone models for different degrees of crowding. The Z Printer 450 (3D Systems, Rock Hill, SC) reprinted 10 sets of models for each category of crowding (mild, moderate, and severe) scanned using a structured-light scanner (Maestro 3D, AGE Solutions, Pisa, Italy). Stone and RP models were measured using digital calipers for tooth sizes in the mesiodistal, buccolingual, and crown height planes and for arch dimension measurements. Bland-Altman and paired t test analyses were used to assess agreement and accuracy. Clinical significance was set at ±0.50 mm. Bland-Altman analysis showed the mean bias of measurements between the models to be within ±0.15 mm (SD, ±0.40 mm), but the 95% limits of agreement exceeded the cutoff point of ±0.50 mm (lower range, -0.81 to -0.41 mm; upper range, 0.34 to 0.76 mm). Paired t tests showed statistically significant differences for all planes in all categories of crowding except for crown height in the moderate crowding group and arch dimensions in the mild and moderate crowding groups. The rapid prototyping models were not clinically comparable with conventional stone models regardless of the degree of crowding. Copyright © 2017 American Association of Orthodontists. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Sideways wall force produced during tokamak disruptions

Science.gov (United States)

Strauss, H.; Paccagnella, R.; Breslau, J.; Sugiyama, L.; Jardin, S.

2013-07-01

A critical issue for ITER is to evaluate the forces produced on the surrounding conducting structures during plasma disruptions. We calculate the non-axisymmetric ‘sideways’ wall force Fx, produced in disruptions. Simulations were carried out of disruptions produced by destabilization of n = 1 modes by a vertical displacement event (VDE). The force depends strongly on γτwall, where γ is the mode growth rate and τwall is the wall penetration time, and is largest for γτwall = constant, which depends on initial conditions. Simulations of disruptions caused by a model of massive gas injection were also performed. It was found that the wall force increases approximately offset linearly with the displacement from the magnetic axis produced by a VDE. These results are also obtained with an analytical model. Disruptions are accompanied by toroidal variation of the plasma current Iφ. This is caused by toroidal variation of the halo current, as verified computationally and analytically.

Structures and Evolutions of Explosive Cyclones over the Northwestern and Northeastern Pacific

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Shuqin; Fu, Gang

2018-06-01

In this study, the structures and evolutions of moderate (MO) explosive cyclones (ECs) over the Northwestern Pacific (NWP) and Northeastern Pacific (NEP) are investigated and compared using composite analysis with cyclone-relative coordinates. Final Operational Global Analysis data gathered during the cold seasons (October-April) of the 15 years from 2000 to 2015 are used. The results indicate that MO NWP ECs have strong baroclinicity and abundant latent heat release at low levels and strong upper-level forcing, which favors explosive cyclogenesis. The rapid development of MO NEP ECs results from their interaction with a northern cyclone and a large middle-level advection of cyclonic vorticity. The structural differences between MO NWP ECs and MO NEP ECs are significant. This results from their specific large-scale atmospheric and oceanic environments. MO NWP ECs usually develop rapidly in the east and southeast of the Japan Islands; the intrusion of cold dry air from the East Asian continent leads to strong baroclinicity, and the Kuroshio/Kuroshio Extension provides abundant latent heat release at low levels. The East Asian subtropical westerly jet stream supplies strong upper-level forcing. While MO NEP ECs mainly occur over the NEP, the low-level baroclinicity, upper-level jet stream, and warm ocean currents are relatively weaker. The merged cyclone associated with a strong middle-level trough transports large cyclonic vorticity to MO NEP ECs, which favors their rapid development.

Comparison of QuadrapolarTM radiofrequency lesions produced by standard versus modified technique: an experimental model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Safakish R

2017-06-01

Full Text Available Ramin Safakish Allevio Pain Management Clinic, Toronto, ON, Canada Abstract: Lower back pain (LBP is a global public health issue and is associated with substantial financial costs and loss of quality of life. Over the years, different literature has provided different statistics regarding the causes of the back pain. The following statistic is the closest estimation regarding our patient population. The sacroiliac (SI joint pain is responsible for LBP in 18%–30% of individuals with LBP. Quadrapolar™ radiofrequency ablation, which involves ablation of the nerves of the SI joint using heat, is a commonly used treatment for SI joint pain. However, the standard Quadrapolar radiofrequency procedure is not always effective at ablating all the sensory nerves that cause the pain in the SI joint. One of the major limitations of the standard Quadrapolar radiofrequency procedure is that it produces small lesions of ~4 mm in diameter. Smaller lesions increase the likelihood of failure to ablate all nociceptive input. In this study, we compare the standard Quadrapolar radiofrequency ablation technique to a modified Quadrapolar ablation technique that has produced improved patient outcomes in our clinic. The methodology of the two techniques are compared. In addition, we compare results from an experimental model comparing the lesion sizes produced by the two techniques. Taken together, the findings from this study suggest that the modified Quadrapolar technique provides longer lasting relief for the back pain that is caused by SI joint dysfunction. A randomized controlled clinical trial is the next step required to quantify the difference in symptom relief and quality of life produced by the two techniques. Keywords: lower back pain, radiofrequency ablation, sacroiliac joint, Quadrapolar radiofrequency ablation

Evaluation of methods to produce an image library for automatic patient model localization for dose mapping during fluoroscopically guided procedures

Science.gov (United States)

Kilian-Meneghin, Josh; Xiong, Z.; Rudin, S.; Oines, A.; Bednarek, D. R.

2017-03-01

The purpose of this work is to evaluate methods for producing a library of 2D-radiographic images to be correlated to clinical images obtained during a fluoroscopically-guided procedure for automated patient-model localization. The localization algorithm will be used to improve the accuracy of the skin-dose map superimposed on the 3D patient- model of the real-time Dose-Tracking-System (DTS). For the library, 2D images were generated from CT datasets of the SK-150 anthropomorphic phantom using two methods: Schmid's 3D-visualization tool and Plastimatch's digitally-reconstructed-radiograph (DRR) code. Those images, as well as a standard 2D-radiographic image, were correlated to a 2D-fluoroscopic image of a phantom, which represented the clinical-fluoroscopic image, using the Corr2 function in Matlab. The Corr2 function takes two images and outputs the relative correlation between them, which is fed into the localization algorithm. Higher correlation means better alignment of the 3D patient-model with the patient image. In this instance, it was determined that the localization algorithm will succeed when Corr2 returns a correlation of at least 50%. The 3D-visualization tool images returned 55-80% correlation relative to the fluoroscopic-image, which was comparable to the correlation for the radiograph. The DRR images returned 61-90% correlation, again comparable to the radiograph. Both methods prove to be sufficient for the localization algorithm and can be produced quickly; however, the DRR method produces more accurate grey-levels. Using the DRR code, a library at varying angles can be produced for the localization algorithm.

Sites that Can Produce Left-handed Amino Acids in the Supernova Neutrino Amino Acid Processing Model

Science.gov (United States)

Boyd, Richard N.; Famiano, Michael A.; Onaka, Takashi; Kajino, Toshitaka

2018-03-01

The Supernova Neutrino Amino Acid Processing model, which uses electron anti-neutrinos and the magnetic field from a source object such as a supernova to selectively destroy one amino acid chirality, is studied for possible sites that would produce meteoroids with partially left-handed amino acids. Several sites appear to provide the requisite magnetic field intensities and electron anti-neutrino fluxes. These results have obvious implications for the origin of life on Earth.

MATHEMATICAL MODEL DESIGNATED FOR THE ASSESSMENT OF THE INTEGRATED ENVIRONMENTAL LOAD PRODUCED BY A BUILDING PROJECT

OpenAIRE

Lapidus Azariy Abramovich; Berezhnyy Aleksandr Yurevich

2012-01-01

In the paper, the author proposes a mathematical model designated for the assessment of the ecological impact produced on the environment within the territory of the construction site. Integrated index EI (Environmental Index) is introduced as a vehicle designated for the evaluation of the ecological load. EI represents the intensity of the ecological load, or a generalized and optimized parameter reflecting the intensity of the anthropogenic impact of the construction site onto the natural e...

Final report of “A Detailed Study of the Physical Mechanisms Controlling CO2-Brine Capillary Trapping in the Subsurface” (University of Arizona, DE-SC0006696)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Schaap, Marcel G. [Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ (United States)

2016-07-25

, 1968) does not predict amount of trapped NWP accurately. 5. (UA) There are ambiguities regarding the segmentation of large-volume gray-scale CT data into pore-volumes suitable for pore-scale modeling. Simulated permeabilities vary by three orders of magnitude and do not resemble observed values very well. Small-volume synchrotron-based CT data (such as produced by OSU) does not suffer significantly from segmentation ambiguities. 6. (UA) A standard properly parameterized Shan-Chen model LB model is useful for simulating porous media with proxy fluids as well as the scCO2/brine system and produces results that are consistent with tomographic observations. 7. (UA) A LB model with fluid-interactions defined by a (modified) Peng-Robinson Equation of State is able to handle the scCO2/brine system with variable solid phase wettability. This model is numerically stable at temperatures between 0 and 250 °C and pressures between 3 and 50 MPa, and produces appropriate densities above the critical point of CO2 and exhibits three-phase separation below. Based on above findings OSU and UA have proposed continued experimentation and pore-scale modeling of the scCO2/brine system. The reported research has extensively covered capillary trapping using proxy fluids, but due to limited beam-time availability we were unable to apply our high-pressure CO2 setup to sufficient variation in fluid properties, and initial scCO2 connectivity. New data will also allow us to test, calibrate and apply our LB models to reservoir conditions beyond those that are currently feasible experimentally. Such experiments and simulations will also allow us to provide information how suitable proxy fluids are for the scCO2/brine system. We believe it would be worthwhile to pursue the following new research questions: 1. What are the fundamental differences in the physics underlying capillary trapping at ambient vs. supercritical conditions? 2. Do newly developed pore-scale trapping interactions and

Using an agent-based model to evaluate the effect of producer specialization on the epidemiological resilience of livestock production networks.

Science.gov (United States)

Wiltshire, Serge W

2018-01-01

An agent-based computer model that builds representative regional U.S. hog production networks was developed and employed to assess the potential impact of the ongoing trend towards increased producer specialization upon network-level resilience to catastrophic disease outbreaks. Empirical analyses suggest that the spatial distribution and connectivity patterns of contact networks often predict epidemic spreading dynamics. Our model heuristically generates realistic systems composed of hog producer, feed mill, and slaughter plant agents. Network edges are added during each run as agents exchange livestock and feed. The heuristics governing agents' contact patterns account for factors including their industry roles, physical proximities, and the age of their livestock. In each run, an infection is introduced, and may spread according to probabilities associated with the various modes of contact. For each of three treatments-defined by one-phase, two-phase, and three-phase production systems-a parameter variation experiment examines the impact of the spatial density of producer agents in the system upon the length and size of disease outbreaks. Resulting data show phase transitions whereby, above some density threshold, systemic outbreaks become possible, echoing findings from percolation theory. Data analysis reveals that multi-phase production systems are vulnerable to catastrophic outbreaks at lower spatial densities, have more abrupt percolation transitions, and are characterized by less-predictable outbreak scales and durations. Key differences in network-level metrics shed light on these results, suggesting that the absence of potentially-bridging producer-producer edges may be largely responsible for the superior disease resilience of single-phase "farrow to finish" production systems.

Impact of satellite-based lake surface observations on the initial state of HIRLAM. Part II: Analysis of lake surface temperature and ice cover

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Homa Kheyrollah Pour

2014-09-01

Full Text Available This paper presents results from a study on the impact of remote-sensing Lake Surface Water Temperature (LSWT observations in the analysis of lake surface state of a numerical weather prediction (NWP model. Data assimilation experiments were performed with the High Resolution Limited Area Model (HIRLAM, a three-dimensional operational NWP model. Selected thermal remote-sensing LSWT observations provided by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS and Advanced Along-Track Scanning Radiometer (AATSR sensors onboard the Terra/Aqua and ENVISAT satellites, respectively, were included into the assimilation. The domain of our experiments, which focussed on two winters (2010–2011 and 2011–2012, covered northern Europe. Validation of the resulting objective analyses against independent observations demonstrated that the description of the lake surface state can be improved by the introduction of space-borne LSWT observations, compared to the result of pure prognostic parameterisations or assimilation of the available limited number of in-situ lake temperature observations. Further development of the data assimilation methods and solving of several practical issues are necessary in order to fully benefit from the space-borne observations of lake surface state for the improvement of the operational weather forecast. This paper is the second part of a series of two papers aimed at improving the objective analysis of lake temperature and ice conditions in HIRLAM.

A Multi-scale Modeling System with Unified Physics to Study Precipitation Processes

Science.gov (United States)

Tao, W. K.

2017-12-01

In recent years, exponentially increasing computer power has extended Cloud Resolving Model (CRM) integrations from hours to months, the number of computational grid points from less than a thousand to close to ten million. Three-dimensional models are now more prevalent. Much attention is devoted to precipitating cloud systems where the crucial 1-km scales are resolved in horizontal domains as large as 10,000 km in two-dimensions, and 1,000 x 1,000 km2 in three-dimensions. Cloud resolving models now provide statistical information useful for developing more realistic physically based parameterizations for climate models and numerical weather prediction models. It is also expected that NWP and mesoscale model can be run in grid size similar to cloud resolving model through nesting technique. Recently, a multi-scale modeling system with unified physics was developed at NASA Goddard. It consists of (1) a cloud-resolving model (Goddard Cumulus Ensemble model, GCE model), (2) a regional scale model (a NASA unified weather research and forecast, WRF), and (3) a coupled CRM and global model (Goddard Multi-scale Modeling Framework, MMF). The same microphysical processes, long and short wave radiative transfer and land processes and the explicit cloud-radiation, and cloud-land surface interactive processes are applied in this multi-scale modeling system. This modeling system has been coupled with a multi-satellite simulator to use NASA high-resolution satellite data to identify the strengths and weaknesses of cloud and precipitation processes simulated by the model. In this talk, a review of developments and applications of the multi-scale modeling system will be presented. In particular, the results from using multi-scale modeling system to study the precipitation, processes and their sensitivity on model resolution and microphysics schemes will be presented. Also how to use of the multi-satellite simulator to improve precipitation processes will be discussed.

An Integrated 0-1 Hour First-Flash Lightning Nowcasting, Lightning Amount and Lightning Jump Warning Capability

Science.gov (United States)

Mecikalski, John; Jewett, Chris; Carey, Larry; Zavodsky, Brad; Stano, Geoffrey; Chronis, Themis

2015-01-01

Using satellite-based methods that provide accurate 0-1 hour convective initiation (CI) nowcasts, and rely on proven success coupling satellite and radar fields in the Corridor Integrated Weather System (CIWS; operated and developed at MIT-Lincoln Laboratory), to subsequently monitor for first-flash lightning initiation (LI) and later period lightning trends as storms evolve. Enhance IR-based methods within the GOES-R CI Algorithm (that must meet specific thresholds for a given cumulus cloud before the cloud is considered to have an increased likelihood of producing lightning next 90 min) that forecast LI. Integrate GOES-R CI and LI fields with radar thresholds (e.g., first greater than or equal to 40 dBZ echo at the -10 C altitude) and NWP model data within the WDSS-II system for LI-events from new convective storms. Track ongoing lightning using Lightning Mapping Array (LMA) and pseudo-Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) data to assess per-storm lightning trends (e.g., as tied to lightning jumps) and outline threat regions. Evaluate the ability to produce LI nowcasts through a "lightning threat" product, and obtain feedback from National Weather Service forecasters on its value as a decision support tool.

Updates to the Demographic and Spatial Allocation Models to Produce Integrated Climate and Land Use Scenarios (ICLUS) (Version 2) (External Review Draft)

Science.gov (United States)

EPA announced the availability of the draft report, Updates to the Demographic and Spatial Allocation Models to Produce Integrated Climate and Land Use Scenarios (ICLUS) for a 30-day public comment period. The ICLUS version 2 (v2) modeling tool furthered land change mod...

Comparison of Trajectories Generated by the NOAA Oil Spill Model to Trajectories Produced Using HF Radar-Derived Curents in Monterey Bay

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Smith, Margaret

1997-01-01

.... Trajectories produced by the NOAA/HAZMAT On-Scene Spill Model, using different combinations of surface currents and winds, were compared to trajectories generated using HF radar-derived surface currents...

Food producers' product development: With regard to the requirements of retail chains

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Skytte, Hans

of technology evolution'. This model has been extended by theories on organizational identity, organizational fields, plausibility, and construction of meaning. Founded on a grounded theory approach the model was subsequently used for analysing the cooperation between Danish food producers and retail chains......This study investigates how it is possible for food producers and retailers to strengthen their competitiveness by coordinating food producers' product development process and retailers' assortment building process. The theoretical outset is taken in Garud and Rappa's model 'Socio-cognitive model...... in four countries regarding trade in pork and pork-based products. The paper concludes with a number of recommendations directed at food producers....

Estimating model parameters for an impact-produced shock-wave simulation: Optimal use of partial data with the extended Kalman filter

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kao, Jim; Flicker, Dawn; Ide, Kayo; Ghil, Michael

2006-01-01

This paper builds upon our recent data assimilation work with the extended Kalman filter (EKF) method [J. Kao, D. Flicker, R. Henninger, S. Frey, M. Ghil, K. Ide, Data assimilation with an extended Kalman filter for an impact-produced shock-wave study, J. Comp. Phys. 196 (2004) 705-723.]. The purpose is to test the capability of EKF in optimizing a model's physical parameters. The problem is to simulate the evolution of a shock produced through a high-speed flyer plate. In the earlier work, we have showed that the EKF allows one to estimate the evolving state of the shock wave from a single pressure measurement, assuming that all model parameters are known. In the present paper, we show that imperfectly known model parameters can also be estimated accordingly, along with the evolving model state, from the same single measurement. The model parameter optimization using the EKF can be achieved through a simple modification of the original EKF formalism by including the model parameters into an augmented state variable vector. While the regular state variables are governed by both deterministic and stochastic forcing mechanisms, the parameters are only subject to the latter. The optimally estimated model parameters are thus obtained through a unified assimilation operation. We show that improving the accuracy of the model parameters also improves the state estimate. The time variation of the optimized model parameters results from blending the data and the corresponding values generated from the model and lies within a small range, of less than 2%, from the parameter values of the original model. The solution computed with the optimized parameters performs considerably better and has a smaller total variance than its counterpart using the original time-constant parameters. These results indicate that the model parameters play a dominant role in the performance of the shock-wave hydrodynamic code at hand

Search for standard model Higgs bosons produced in association with W bosons.

Science.gov (United States)

Aaltonen, T; Adelman, J; Akimoto, T; Albrow, M G; González, B Alvarez; Amerio, S; Amidei, D; Anastassov, A; Annovi, A; Antos, J; Aoki, M; Apollinari, G; Apresyan, A; Arisawa, T; Artikov, A; Ashmanskas, W; Attal, A; Aurisano, A; Azfar, F; Azzi-Bacchetta, P; Azzurri, P; Bacchetta, N; Badgett, W; Barbaro-Galtieri, A; Barnes, V E; Barnett, B A; Baroiant, S; Bartsch, V; Bauer, G; Beauchemin, P-H; Bedeschi, F; Bednar, P; Behari, S; Bellettini, G; Bellinger, J; Belloni, A; Benjamin, D; Beretvas, A; Beringer, J; Berry, T; Bhatti, A; Binkley, M; Bisello, D; Bizjak, I; Blair, R E; Blocker, C; Blumenfeld, B; Bocci, A; Bodek, A; Boisvert, V; Bolla, G; Bolshov, A; Bortoletto, D; Boudreau, J; Boveia, A; Brau, B; Bridgeman, A; Brigliadori, L; Bromberg, C; Brubaker, E; Budagov, J; Budd, H S; Budd, S; Burkett, K; Busetto, G; Bussey, P; Buzatu, A; Byrum, K L; Cabrera, S; Campanelli, M; Campbell, M; Canelli, F; Canepa, A; Carlsmith, D; Carosi, R; Carrillo, S; Carron, S; Casal, B; Casarsa, M; Castro, A; Catastini, P; Cauz, D; Cavalli-Sforza, M; Cerri, A; Cerrito, L; Chang, S H; Chen, Y C; Chertok, M; Chiarelli, G; Chlachidze, G; Chlebana, F; Cho, K; Chokheli, D; Chou, J P; Choudalakis, G; Chuang, S H; Chung, K; Chung, W H; Chung, Y S; Ciobanu, C I; Ciocci, M A; Clark, A; Clark, D; Compostella, G; Convery, M E; Conway, J; Cooper, B; Copic, K; Cordelli, M; Cortiana, G; Crescioli, F; Almenar, C Cuenca; Cuevas, J; Culbertson, R; Cully, J C; Dagenhart, D; Datta, M; Davies, T; de Barbaro, P; De Cecco, S; Deisher, A; De Lentdecker, G; De Lorenzo, G; Dell'Orso, M; Demortier, L; Deng, J; Deninno, M; De Pedis, D; Derwent, P F; Di Giovanni, G P; Dionisi, C; Di Ruzza, B; Dittmann, J R; D'Onofrio, M; Donati, S; Dong, P; Donini, J; Dorigo, T; Dube, S; Efron, J; Erbacher, R; Errede, D; Errede, S; Eusebi, R; Fang, H C; Farrington, S; Fedorko, W T; Feild, R G; Feindt, M; Fernandez, J P; Ferrazza, C; Field, R; Flanagan, G; Forrest, R; Forrester, S; Franklin, M; Freeman, J C; Furic, I; Gallinaro, M; Galyardt, J; Garberson, F; Garcia, J E; Garfinkel, A F; Gerberich, H; Gerdes, D; Giagu, S; Giakoumopolou, V; Giannetti, P; Gibson, K; Gimmell, J L; Ginsburg, C M; Giokaris, N; Giordani, M; Giromini, P; Giunta, M; Glagolev, V; Glenzinski, D; Gold, M; Goldschmidt, N; Golossanov, A; Gomez, G; Gomez-Ceballos, G; Goncharov, M; González, O; Gorelov, I; Goshaw, A T; Goulianos, K; Gresele, A; Grinstein, S; Grosso-Pilcher, C; Grundler, U; Guimaraes da Costa, J; Gunay-Unalan, Z; Haber, C; Hahn, K; Hahn, S R; Halkiadakis, E; Hamilton, A; Han, B-Y; Han, J Y; Handler, R; Happacher, F; Hara, K; Hare, D; Hare, M; Harper, S; Harr, R F; Harris, R M; Hartz, M; Hatakeyama, K; Hauser, J; Hays, C; Heck, M; Heijboer, A; Heinemann, B; Heinrich, J; Henderson, C; Herndon, M; Heuser, J; Hewamanage, S; Hidas, D; Hill, C S; Hirschbuehl, D; Hocker, A; Hou, S; Houlden, M; Hsu, S-C; Huffman, B T; Hughes, R E; Husemann, U; Huston, J; Incandela, J; Introzzi, G; Iori, M; Ivanov, A; Iyutin, B; James, E; Jayatilaka, B; Jeans, D; Jeon, E J; Jindariani, S; Johnson, W; Jones, M; Joo, K K; Jun, S Y; Jung, J E; Junk, T R; Kamon, T; Kar, D; Karchin, P E; Kato, Y; Kephart, R; Kerzel, U; Khotilovich, V; Kilminster, B; Kim, D H; Kim, H S; Kim, J E; Kim, M J; Kim, S B; Kim, S H; Kim, Y K; Kimura, N; Kirsch, L; Klimenko, S; Klute, M; Knuteson, B; Ko, B R; Koay, S A; Kondo, K; Kong, D J; Konigsberg, J; Korytov, A; Kotwal, A V; Kraus, J; Kreps, M; Kroll, J; Krumnack, N; Kruse, M; Krutelyov, V; Kubo, T; Kuhlmann, S E; Kuhr, T; Kulkarni, N P; Kusakabe, Y; Kwang, S; Laasanen, A T; Lai, S; Lami, S; Lammel, S; Lancaster, M; Lander, R L; Lannon, K; Lath, A; Latino, G; Lazzizzera, I; LeCompte, T; Lee, J; Lee, J; Lee, Y J; Lee, S W; Lefèvre, R; Leonardo, N; Leone, S; Levy, S; Lewis, J D; Lin, C; Lin, C S; Linacre, J; Lindgren, M; Lipeles, E; Lister, A; Litvintsev, D O; Liu, T; Lockyer, N S; Loginov, A; Loreti, M; Lovas, L; Lu, R-S; Lucchesi, D; Lueck, J; Luci, C; Lujan, P; Lukens, P; Lungu, G; Lyons, L; Lys, J; Lysak, R; Lytken, E; Mack, P; MacQueen, D; Madrak, R; Maeshima, K; Makhoul, K; Maki, T; Maksimovic, P; Malde, S; Malik, S; Manca, G; Manousakis, A; Margaroli, F; Marino, C; Marino, C P; Martin, A; Martin, M; Martin, V; Martínez, M; Martínez-Ballarín, R; Maruyama, T; Mastrandrea, P; Masubuchi, T; Mattson, M E; Mazzanti, P; McFarland, K S; McIntyre, P; McNulty, R; Mehta, A; Mehtala, P; Menzemer, S; Menzione, A; Merkel, P; Mesropian, C; Messina, A; Miao, T; Miladinovic, N; Miles, J; Miller, R; Mills, C; Milnik, M; Mitra, A; Mitselmakher, G; Miyake, H; Moed, S; Moggi, N; Moon, C S; Moore, R; Morello, M; Fernandez, P Movilla; Mülmenstädt, J; Mukherjee, A; Muller, Th; Mumford, R; Murat, P; Mussini, M; Nachtman, J; Nagai, Y; Nagano, A; Naganoma, J; Nakamura, K; Nakano, I; Napier, A; Necula, V; Neu, C; Neubauer, M S; Nielsen, J; Nodulman, L; Norman, M; Norniella, O; Nurse, E; Oh, S H; Oh, Y D; Oksuzian, I; Okusawa, T; Oldeman, R; Orava, R; Osterberg, K; Griso, S Pagan; Pagliarone, C; Palencia, E; Papadimitriou, V; Papaikonomou, A; Paramonov, A A; Parks, B; Pashapour, S; Patrick, J; Pauletta, G; Paulini, M; Paus, C; Pellett, D E; Penzo, A; Phillips, T J; Piacentino, G; Piedra, J; Pinera, L; Pitts, K; Plager, C; Pondrom, L; Portell, X; Poukhov, O; Pounder, N; Prakoshyn, F; Pronko, A; Proudfoot, J; Ptohos, F; Punzi, G; Pursley, J; Rademacker, J; Rahaman, A; Ramakrishnan, V; Ranjan, N; Redondo, I; Reisert, B; Rekovic, V; Renton, P; Rescigno, M; Richter, S; Rimondi, F; Ristori, L; Robson, A; Rodrigo, T; Rogers, E; Rolli, S; Roser, R; Rossi, M; Rossin, R; Roy, P; Ruiz, A; Russ, J; Rusu, V; Saarikko, H; Safonov, A; Sakumoto, W K; Salamanna, G; Saltó, O; Santi, L; Sarkar, S; Sartori, L; Sato, K; Savoy-Navarro, A; Scheidle, T; Schlabach, P; Schmidt, E E; Schmidt, M A; Schmidt, M P; Schmitt, M; Schwarz, T; Scodellaro, L; Scott, A L; Scribano, A; Scuri, F; Sedov, A; Seidel, S; Seiya, Y; Semenov, A; Sexton-Kennedy, L; Sfyria, A; Shalhout, S Z; Shapiro, M D; Shears, T; Shepard, P F; Sherman, D; Shimojima, M; Shochet, M; Shon, Y; Shreyber, I; Sidoti, A; Siegrist, J; Sinervo, P; Sisakyan, A; Slaughter, A J; Slaunwhite, J; Sliwa, K; Smith, J R; Snider, F D; Snihur, R; Soderberg, M; Soha, A; Somalwar, S; Sorin, V; Spalding, J; Spinella, F; Spreitzer, T; Squillacioti, P; Stanitzki, M; St Denis, R; Stelzer, B; Stelzer-Chilton, O; Stentz, D; Strologas, J; Stuart, D; Suh, J S; Sukhanov, A; Sun, H; Suslov, I; Suzuki, T; Taffard, A; Takashima, R; Takeuchi, Y; Tanaka, R; Tecchio, M; Teng, P K; Terashi, K; Thom, J; Thompson, A S; Thompson, G A; Thomson, E; Tipton, P; Tiwari, V; Tkaczyk, S; Toback, D; Tokar, S; Tollefson, K; Tomura, T; Tonelli, D; Torre, S; Torretta, D; Tourneur, S; Trischuk, W; Tu, Y; Turini, N; Ukegawa, F; Uozumi, S; Vallecorsa, S; van Remortel, N; Varganov, A; Vataga, E; Vázquez, F; Velev, G; Vellidis, C; Veszpremi, V; Vidal, M; Vidal, R; Vila, I; Vilar, R; Vine, T; Vogel, M; Volobouev, I; Volpi, G; Würthwein, F; Wagner, P; Wagner, R G; Wagner, R L; Wagner-Kuhr, J; Wagner, W; Wakisaka, T; Wallny, R; Wang, S M; Warburton, A; Waters, D; Weinberger, M; Wester, W C; Whitehouse, B; Whiteson, D; Wicklund, A B; Wicklund, E; Williams, G; Williams, H H; Wilson, P; Winer, B L; Wittich, P; Wolbers, S; Wolfe, C; Wright, T; Wu, X; Wynne, S M; Yagil, A; Yamamoto, K; Yamaoka, J; Yamashita, T; Yang, C; Yang, U K; Yang, Y C; Yao, W M; Yeh, G P; Yoh, J; Yorita, K; Yoshida, T; Yu, G B; Yu, I; Yu, S S; Yun, J C; Zanello, L; Zanetti, A; Zaw, I; Zhang, X; Zheng, Y; Zucchelli, S; Group, R C

2008-02-01

We report on the results of a search for standard model Higgs bosons produced in association with W bosons from pp[over] collisions at sqrt[s]=1.96 TeV. The search uses a data sample corresponding to approximately 1 fb(-1) of integrated luminosity. Events consistent with the W-->lnu and H-->bb[over] signature are selected by triggering on a high-p(T) electron or muon candidate and tagging one or two of the jet candidates as having originated from b quarks. A neural network filter rejects a fraction of tagged charm and light-flavor jets, increasing the b-jet purity in the sample. We observe no excess lnubb[over] production beyond the background expectation, and we set 95% confidence level upper limits on the production cross section times branching fraction sigma(pp[over]-->WH)Br(H-->bb[over]) ranging from 3.9 to 1.3 pb, for specific Higgs boson mass hypotheses in the range 110 to 150 GeV/c2, respectively.

Impact of advanced technology microwave sounder data in the NCMRWF 4D-VAR data assimilation system

Science.gov (United States)

Rani, S. Indira; Srinivas, D.; Mallick, Swapan; George, John P.

2016-05-01

This study demonstrates the added benefits of assimilating the Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder (ATMS) radiances from the Suomi-NPP satellite in the NCMRWF Unified Model (NCUM). ATMS is a cross-track scanning microwave radiometer inherited the legacy of two very successful instrument namely, Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit-A (AMSU-A) and Microwave Humidity Sounder (MHS). ATMS has 22 channels: 11 temperature sounding channels around 50-60 GHz oxygen band and 6 moisture sounding channels around the 183GHz water vapour band in addition to 5 channels sensitive to the surface in clear conditions, or to water vapour, rain, and cloud when conditions are not clear (at 23, 31, 50, 51 and 89 GHz). Before operational assimilation of any new observation by NWP centres it is standard practice to assess data quality with respect to NWP model background (short-forecast) fields. Quality of all channels is estimated against the model background and the biases are computed and compared against that from the similar observations. The impact of the ATMS data on global analyses and forecasts is tested by adding the ATMS data in the NCUM Observation Processing system (OPS) and 4D-Var variational assimilation (VAR) system. This paper also discusses the pre-operational numerical experiments conducted to assess the impact of ATMS radiances in the NCUM assimilation system. It is noted that the performance of ATMS is stable and it contributes to the performance of the model, complimenting observations from other instruments.

Dilemma Produced by Infinity of a Random Walk

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Li Jing-Hui

2015-01-01

We report a dilemma produced by the infinity of a random walk moving along a two-dimensional space sidestep. For this random walk, our investigation shows that using a different model can lead to a different diffusion coefficient of the random walk, which is produced by the infinity of the random walk. The result obtained by us in the present work can serve as a warning to us when we build the models to investigate the corresponding scientific problems. (paper)

Use of medium-range numerical weather prediction model output to produce forecasts of streamflow

Science.gov (United States)

Clark, M.P.; Hay, L.E.

2004-01-01

he accuracy of precipitation forecasts over the northeastern United States, but overall, the accuracy of MOS-based precipitation forecasts is slightly lower than the raw NCEP forecasts. Four basins in the United States were chosen as case studies to evaluate the value of MRF output for predictions of streamflow. Streamflow forecasts using MRF output were generated for one rainfall-dominated basin (Alapaha River at Statenville, Georgia) and three snowmelt-dominated basins (Animas River at Durango, Colorado: East Fork of the Carson River near Gardnerville, Nevada: and Cle Elum River near Roslyn, Washington). Hydrologic model output forced with measured-station data were used as "truth" to focus attention on the hydrologic effects of errors in the MRF forecasts. Eight-day streamflow forecasts produced using the MOS-corrected MRF output as input (MOS) were compared with those produced using the climatic Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) technique. MOS-based streamflow forecasts showed increased skill in the snowmelt-dominated river basins, where daily variations in streamflow are strongly forced by temperature. In contrast, the skill of MOS forecasts in the rainfall-dominated basin (the Alapaha River) were equivalent to the skill of the ESP forecasts. Further improvements in streamflow forecasts require more accurate local-scale forecasts of precipitation and temperature, more accurate specification of basin initial conditions, and more accurate model simulations of streamflow. ?? 2004 American Meteorological Society.

Mathematical Modeling and Algebraic Technique for Resolving a Single-Producer Multi-Retailer Integrated Inventory System with Scrap

OpenAIRE

Yuan-Shyi Peter Chiu; Chien-Hua Lee; Nong Pan; Singa Wang Chiu

2013-01-01

This study uses mathematical modeling along with an algebraic technique to resolve the production-distribution policy for a single-producer multi-retailer integrated inventory system with scrap in production. We assume that a product is manufactured through an imperfect production process where all nonconforming items will be picked up and scrapped in each production cycle. After the entire lot is quality assured, multiple shipments will be delivered synchronously to m different retailers in ...

Air-sea exchange and gas-particle partitioning of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons over the northwestern Pacific Ocean: Role of East Asian continental outflow.

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Zilan; Lin, Tian; Li, Zhongxia; Jiang, Yuqing; Li, Yuanyuan; Yao, Xiaohong; Gao, Huiwang; Guo, Zhigang

2017-11-01

We measured 15 parent polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in atmosphere and water during a research cruise from the East China Sea (ECS) to the northwestern Pacific Ocean (NWP) in the spring of 2015 to investigate the occurrence, air-sea gas exchange, and gas-particle partitioning of PAHs with a particular focus on the influence of East Asian continental outflow. The gaseous PAH composition and identification of sources were consistent with PAHs from the upwind area, indicating that the gaseous PAHs (three-to five-ring PAHs) were influenced by upwind land pollution. In addition, air-sea exchange fluxes of gaseous PAHs were estimated to be -54.2-107.4 ng m -2 d -1 , and was indicative of variations of land-based PAH inputs. The logarithmic gas-particle partition coefficient (logK p ) of PAHs regressed linearly against the logarithmic subcooled liquid vapor pressure (logP L 0 ), with a slope of -0.25. This was significantly larger than the theoretical value (-1), implying disequilibrium between the gaseous and particulate PAHs over the NWP. The non-equilibrium of PAH gas-particle partitioning was shielded from the volatilization of three-ring gaseous PAHs from seawater and lower soot concentrations in particular when the oceanic air masses prevailed. Modeling PAH absorption into organic matter and adsorption onto soot carbon revealed that the status of PAH gas-particle partitioning deviated more from the modeling K p for oceanic air masses than those for continental air masses, which coincided with higher volatilization of three-ring PAHs and confirmed the influence of air-sea exchange. Meanwhile, significant linear regressions between logK p and logK oa (logK sa ) for PAHs were observed for continental air masses, suggesting the dominant effect of East Asian continental outflow on atmospheric PAHs over the NWP during the sampling campaign. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The ALADIN System and its canonical model configurations AROME CY41T1 and ALARO CY40T1

Science.gov (United States)

Termonia, Piet; Fischer, Claude; Bazile, Eric; Bouyssel, François; Brožková, Radmila; Bénard, Pierre; Bochenek, Bogdan; Degrauwe, Daan; Derková, Mariá; El Khatib, Ryad; Hamdi, Rafiq; Mašek, Ján; Pottier, Patricia; Pristov, Neva; Seity, Yann; Smolíková, Petra; Španiel, Oldřich; Tudor, Martina; Wang, Yong; Wittmann, Christoph; Joly, Alain

2018-01-01

The ALADIN System is a numerical weather prediction (NWP) system developed by the international ALADIN consortium for operational weather forecasting and research purposes. It is based on a code that is shared with the global model IFS of the ECMWF and the ARPEGE model of Météo-France. Today, this system can be used to provide a multitude of high-resolution limited-area model (LAM) configurations. A few configurations are thoroughly validated and prepared to be used for the operational weather forecasting in the 16 partner institutes of this consortium. These configurations are called the ALADIN canonical model configurations (CMCs). There are currently three CMCs: the ALADIN baseline CMC, the AROME CMC and the ALARO CMC. Other configurations are possible for research, such as process studies and climate simulations. The purpose of this paper is (i) to define the ALADIN System in relation to the global counterparts IFS and ARPEGE, (ii) to explain the notion of the CMCs, (iii) to document their most recent versions, and (iv) to illustrate the process of the validation and the porting of these configurations to the operational forecast suites of the partner institutes of the ALADIN consortium. This paper is restricted to the forecast model only; data assimilation techniques and postprocessing techniques are part of the ALADIN System but they are not discussed here.

Modeling Approach for Estimating Co-Produced Water Volumes and Saltwater Disposal Volumes in Oklahoma

Science.gov (United States)

Murray, K. E.

2016-12-01

Management of produced fluids has become an important issue in Oklahoma because large volumes of saltwater are co-produced with oil and gas, and disposed into saltwater disposal wells at high rates. Petroleum production increased from 2009-2015, especially in central and north-central Oklahoma where the Mississippian and Hunton zones were redeveloped using horizontal wells and dewatering techniques that have led to a disproportional increase in produced water volumes. Improved management of co-produced water, including desalination for beneficial reuse and decreased saltwater disposal volumes, is only possible if spatial and temporal trends can be defined and related to the producing zones. It is challenging to quantify the volumes of co-produced water by region or production zone because co-produced water volumes are generally not reported. Therefore, the goal of this research is to estimate co-produced water volumes for 2008-present with an approach that can be replicated as petroleum production shifts to other regions. Oil and gas production rates from subsurface zones were multiplied by ratios of H2O:oil and H2O:gas for the respective zones. Initial H2O:oil and H2O:gas ratios were adjusted/calibrated, by zone, to maximize correlation of county-scale produced H2O estimates versus saltwater disposal volumes from 2013-2015. These calibrated ratios were then used to compute saltwater disposal volumes from 2008-2012 because of apparent data gaps in reported saltwater disposal volumes during that timeframe. This research can be used to identify regions that have the greatest need for produced water treatment systems. The next step in management of produced fluids is to explore optimal energy-efficient strategies that reduce deleterious effects.

The value and adaptation of plant uptake models in international trade of produce treated with crop protection products

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kennedy, C.; Anderson, J.; Snyder, N.

2010-01-01

Crop Protection Product (CPP) national registrations and/or international trade require magnitude and decline of residue data for treated produce. These data are used to assess human dietary risk and establish legal limits (Maximum Residue Limits, MRLs) for traded produce. The ability to predict...... residues based on limited data sets affords business value by enabling informed product development decisions about the likelihood for MRL compliance for varied product use scenarios. Predicted residues can additionally support the design and conduct of time-constrained interdependent studies required...... for product registrations. While advances in predicting residues for the case of foliar applications of CPPs have been achieved, predictions for the case of soil applications of CPPs provide additional challenge. The adaptation of a newly developed dynamic model to CPP product use scenarios will be explored...

Propagation of hydro-meteorological uncertainty in a model cascade framework to inundation prediction

Science.gov (United States)

Rodríguez-Rincón, J. P.; Pedrozo-Acuña, A.; Breña-Naranjo, J. A.

2015-07-01

This investigation aims to study the propagation of meteorological uncertainty within a cascade modelling approach to flood prediction. The methodology was comprised of a numerical weather prediction (NWP) model, a distributed rainfall-runoff model and a 2-D hydrodynamic model. The uncertainty evaluation was carried out at the meteorological and hydrological levels of the model chain, which enabled the investigation of how errors that originated in the rainfall prediction interact at a catchment level and propagate to an estimated inundation area and depth. For this, a hindcast scenario is utilised removing non-behavioural ensemble members at each stage, based on the fit with observed data. At the hydrodynamic level, an uncertainty assessment was not incorporated; instead, the model was setup following guidelines for the best possible representation of the case study. The selected extreme event corresponds to a flood that took place in the southeast of Mexico during November 2009, for which field data (e.g. rain gauges; discharge) and satellite imagery were available. Uncertainty in the meteorological model was estimated by means of a multi-physics ensemble technique, which is designed to represent errors from our limited knowledge of the processes generating precipitation. In the hydrological model, a multi-response validation was implemented through the definition of six sets of plausible parameters from past flood events. Precipitation fields from the meteorological model were employed as input in a distributed hydrological model, and resulting flood hydrographs were used as forcing conditions in the 2-D hydrodynamic model. The evolution of skill within the model cascade shows a complex aggregation of errors between models, suggesting that in valley-filling events hydro-meteorological uncertainty has a larger effect on inundation depths than that observed in estimated flood inundation extents.

Search for the standard model Higgs Boson produced in association with top quarks using the full CDF data set.

Science.gov (United States)

Aaltonen, T; Álvarez González, B; Amerio, S; Amidei, D; Anastassov, A; Annovi, A; Antos, J; Apollinari, G; Appel, J A; Arisawa, T; Artikov, A; Asaadi, J; Ashmanskas, W; Auerbach, B; Aurisano, A; Azfar, F; Badgett, W; Bae, T; Barbaro-Galtieri, A; Barnes, V E; Barnett, B A; Barria, P; Bartos, P; Bauce, M; Bedeschi, F; Behari, S; Bellettini, G; Bellinger, J; Benjamin, D; Beretvas, A; Bhatti, A; Bisello, D; Bizjak, I; Bland, K R; Blumenfeld, B; Bocci, A; Bodek, A; Bortoletto, D; Boudreau, J; Boveia, A; Brigliadori, L; Bromberg, C; Brucken, E; Budagov, J; Budd, H S; Burkett, K; Busetto, G; Bussey, P; Buzatu, A; Calamba, A; Calancha, C; Camarda, S; Campanelli, M; Campbell, M; Canelli, F; Carls, B; Carlsmith, D; Carosi, R; Carrillo, S; Carron, S; Casal, B; Casarsa, M; Castro, A; Catastini, P; Cauz, D; Cavaliere, V; Cavalli-Sforza, M; Cerri, A; Cerrito, L; Chen, Y C; Chertok, M; Chiarelli, G; Chlachidze, G; Chlebana, F; Cho, K; Chokheli, D; Chung, W H; Chung, Y S; Ciocci, M A; Clark, A; Clarke, C; Compostella, G; Connors, J; Convery, M E; Conway, J; Corbo, M; Cordelli, M; Cox, C A; Cox, D J; Crescioli, F; Cuevas, J; Culbertson, R; Dagenhart, D; d'Ascenzo, N; Datta, M; de Barbaro, P; Dell'Orso, M; Demortier, L; Deninno, M; Devoto, F; d'Errico, M; Di Canto, A; Di Ruzza, B; Dittmann, J R; D'Onofrio, M; Donati, S; Dong, P; Dorigo, M; Dorigo, T; Ebina, K; Elagin, A; Eppig, A; Erbacher, R; Errede, S; Ershaidat, N; Eusebi, R; Farrington, S; Feindt, M; Fernandez, J P; Field, R; Flanagan, G; Forrest, R; Frank, M J; Franklin, M; Freeman, J C; Funakoshi, Y; Furic, I; Gallinaro, M; Garcia, J E; Garfinkel, A F; Garosi, P; Gerberich, H; Gerchtein, E; Giagu, S; Giakoumopoulou, V; Giannetti, P; Gibson, K; Ginsburg, C M; Giokaris, N; Giromini, P; Giurgiu, G; Glagolev, V; Glenzinski, D; Gold, M; Goldin, D; Goldschmidt, N; Golossanov, A; Gomez, G; Gomez-Ceballos, G; Goncharov, M; González, O; Gorelov, I; Goshaw, A T; Goulianos, K; Grinstein, S; Grosso-Pilcher, C; Group, R C; Guimaraes da Costa, J; Hahn, S R; Halkiadakis, E; Hamaguchi, A; Han, J Y; Happacher, F; Hara, K; Hare, D; Hare, M; Harr, R F; Hatakeyama, K; Hays, C; Heck, M; Heinrich, J; Herndon, M; Hewamanage, S; Hocker, A; Hopkins, W; Horn, D; Hou, S; Hughes, R E; Hurwitz, M; Husemann, U; Hussain, N; Hussein, M; Huston, J; Introzzi, G; Iori, M; Ivanov, A; James, E; Jang, D; Jayatilaka, B; Jeon, E J; Jindariani, S; Jones, M; Joo, K K; Jun, S Y; Junk, T R; Kamon, T; Karchin, P E; Kasmi, A; Kato, Y; Ketchum, W; Keung, J; Khotilovich, V; Kilminster, B; Kim, D H; Kim, H S; Kim, J E; Kim, M J; Kim, S B; Kim, S H; Kim, Y K; Kim, Y J; Kimura, N; Kirby, M; Klimenko, S; Knoepfel, K; Kondo, K; Kong, D J; Konigsberg, J; Kotwal, A V; Kreps, M; Kroll, J; Krop, D; Kruse, M; Krutelyov, V; Kuhr, T; Kurata, M; Kwang, S; Laasanen, A T; Lami, S; Lammel, S; Lancaster, M; Lander, R L; Lannon, K; Lath, A; Latino, G; Lecompte, T; Lee, E; Lee, H S; Lee, J S; Lee, S W; Leo, S; Leone, S; Lewis, J D; Limosani, A; Lin, C-J; Lindgren, M; Lipeles, E; Lister, A; Litvintsev, D O; Liu, C; Liu, H; Liu, Q; Liu, T; Lockwitz, S; Loginov, A; Lucchesi, D; Lueck, J; Lujan, P; Lukens, P; Lungu, G; Lys, J; Lysak, R; Madrak, R; Maeshima, K; Maestro, P; Malik, S; Manca, G; Manousakis-Katsikakis, A; Margaroli, F; Marino, C; Martínez, M; Mastrandrea, P; Matera, K; Mattson, M E; Mazzacane, A; Mazzanti, P; McFarland, K S; McIntyre, P; McNulty, R; Mehta, A; Mehtala, P; Mesropian, C; Miao, T; Mietlicki, D; Mitra, A; Miyake, H; Moed, S; Moggi, N; Mondragon, M N; Moon, C S; Moore, R; Morello, M J; Morlock, J; Movilla Fernandez, P; Mukherjee, A; Muller, Th; Murat, P; Mussini, M; Nachtman, J; Nagai, Y; Naganoma, J; Nakano, I; Napier, A; Nett, J; Neu, C; Neubauer, M S; Nielsen, J; Nodulman, L; Noh, S Y; Norniella, O; Oakes, L; Oh, S H; Oh, Y D; Oksuzian, I; Okusawa, T; Orava, R; Ortolan, L; Pagan Griso, S; Pagliarone, C; Palencia, E; Papadimitriou, V; Paramonov, A A; Patrick, J; Pauletta, G; Paulini, M; Paus, C; Pellett, D E; Penzo, A; Phillips, T J; Piacentino, G; Pianori, E; Pilot, J; Pitts, K; Plager, C; Pondrom, L; Poprocki, S; Potamianos, K; Prokoshin, F; Pranko, A; Ptohos, F; Punzi, G; Rahaman, A; Ramakrishnan, V; Ranjan, N; Redondo, I; Renton, P; Rescigno, M; Riddick, T; Rimondi, F; Ristori, L; Robson, A; Rodrigo, T; Rodriguez, T; Rogers, E; Rolli, S; Roser, R; Ruffini, F; Ruiz, A; Russ, J; Rusu, V; Safonov, A; Sakumoto, W K; Sakurai, Y; Santi, L; Sato, K; Saveliev, V; Savoy-Navarro, A; Schlabach, P; Schmidt, A; Schmidt, E E; Schwarz, T; Scodellaro, L; Scribano, A; Scuri, F; Seidel, S; Seiya, Y; Semenov, A; Sforza, F; Shalhout, S Z; Shears, T; Shepard, P F; Shimojima, M; Shochet, M; Shreyber-Tecker, I; Simonenko, A; Sinervo, P; Sliwa, K; Smith, J R; Snider, F D; Soha, A; Sorin, V; Song, H; Squillacioti, P; Stancari, M; St Denis, R; Stelzer, B; Stelzer-Chilton, O; Stentz, D; Strologas, J; Strycker, G L; Sudo, Y; Sukhanov, A; Suslov, I; Takemasa, K; Takeuchi, Y; Tang, J; Tecchio, M; Teng, P K; Thom, J; Thome, J; Thompson, G A; Thomson, E; Toback, D; Tokar, S; Tollefson, K; Tomura, T; Tonelli, D; Torre, S; Torretta, D; Totaro, P; Trovato, M; Ukegawa, F; Uozumi, S; Varganov, A; Vázquez, F; Velev, G; Vellidis, C; Vidal, M; Vila, I; Vilar, R; Vizán, J; Vogel, M; Volpi, G; Wagner, P; Wagner, R L; Wakisaka, T; Wallny, R; Wang, S M; Warburton, A; Waters, D; Wester, W C; Whiteson, D; Wicklund, A B; Wicklund, E; Wilbur, S; Wick, F; Williams, H H; Wilson, J S; Wilson, P; Winer, B L; Wittich, P; Wolbers, S; Wolfe, H; Wright, T; Wu, X; Wu, Z; Yamamoto, K; Yamato, D; Yang, T; Yang, U K; Yang, Y C; Yao, W-M; Yeh, G P; Yi, K; Yoh, J; Yorita, K; Yoshida, T; Yu, G B; Yu, I; Yu, S S; Yun, J C; Zanetti, A; Zeng, Y; Zhou, C; Zucchelli, S

2012-11-02

A search is presented for the standard model Higgs boson produced in association with top quarks using the full Run II proton-antiproton collision data set, corresponding to 9.45 fb(-1), collected by the Collider Detector at Fermilab. No significant excess over the expected background is observed, and 95% credibility-level upper bounds are placed on the cross section σ(ttH → lepton + missing transverse energy+jets). For a Higgs boson mass of 125 GeV/c(2), we expect to set a limit of 12.6 and observe a limit of 20.5 times the standard model rate. This represents the most sensitive search for a standard model Higgs boson in this channel to date.

FEM modeling of the reinforcement mechanism of Hydroxyapatite in PLLA scaffolds produced by supercritical drying, for Tissue Engineering applications.

Science.gov (United States)

Baldino, L; Naddeo, F; Cardea, S; Naddeo, A; Reverchon, E

2015-11-01

Scaffolds have been produced by supercritical CO2 drying of Poly-L-Lactid Acid (PLLA) gels loaded with micrometric fructose particles used as porogens. These structures show a microporous architecture generated by the voids left in the solid material by porogen leaching, while they maintain the nanostructure of the gel, consisting of a network of nanofilaments. These scaffolds have also been loaded with Hydroxyapatite (HA) nanoparticles, from 10 to 50% w/w with respect to the polymer, to improve the mechanical properties of the PLLA structure. Based on miscroscopic and mechanical considerations, we propose a parametric Finite Element Method (FEM) model of PLLA-HA composites that describes the microporous structure as a close-packing of equal spheres and the nanoscale structure as a space frame of isotropic curved fibers. The effect of HA on the mechanical properties of the scaffolds has been modeled on the basis of SEM images and by taking into consideration the formation of concentric cylinders of HA nanoparticles around PLLA nanofibers. Modeling analysis confirms that mechanical properties of these scaffolds depend on nanofibrous network connections and that bending is the major factor causing deformation of the network. The FEM model also takes into account the formation of HA multi-layer coating on some areas in the nanofiber network and its increase in thickness with HA percentage. The Young modulus tends to a plateau for HA percentages larger than 30% w/w and when the coverage of the nanofibers produced by HA nanoparticles reaches a loaded surface index of 0.14 in the FEM model. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Performance evaluation of paper embossing tools produced by fused deposition modelling additive manufacturing technology

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gordana Delić

2017-12-01

Full Text Available From its beginnings, up to a few years ago, additive manufacturing technology was able to produce models or prototypes which have limited use, because of materials mechanical properties. With advancement and invention of new materials, this is changing. Now, it is possible to create 3D prints that can be used as final products or functional tools, using technology and materials with low environmental impact. The goal of this study was to examine opportunities for production of paper embossing tools by fused deposition modelling (FDM 3D printing. This study emphasises the use of environmentally friendly poly-lactic acid (PLA materials in FDM technology, contrary to the conventional method using metal alloys and acids. Embossing of line elements and letters using 3D printed embossing tools was done on six different types of paper. Embossing force was applied using SHIMADZU EZ-LX Compact Tabletop Testing Machine. Each type of paper was repeatedly embossed using different values of embossing force (in 250 N increments, starting at 1000 N to determine the optimal embossing force for each specific paper type. When determined, the optimal embossing force was used on ten samples for each paper type. Results of embossing were analysed and evaluated. The analysis consisted of investigating the effects of the applied embossing force and characteristics such as paper basis weight, paper structure, surface characteristic and fibre direction of the paper. Results show that paper characteristics determine the embossing force required for achieving a good embossing result. This means that with the right amount of embossing force, letters and borderlines can be equally well formed by the embossing process regardless of paper weight, surface characteristics, etc. Embossing tools produced in this manner can be used in case of the embossing elements that are not complex. The reason for this is the limitation of FDM technology and lack of precision needed for fine

How Do Cultural Producers Make Creative Decisions? Lessons from the Catwalk

Science.gov (United States)

Godart, Frederic C. Mears, Ashley

2009-01-01

Faced with high uncertainty, how do producers in the cultural economy make creative decisions? We present a case study of the fashion modeling industry. Using participant observation, interviews and network analysis of the Spring/Summer 2007 Fashion Week collections, we explain how producers select models for fashion shows. While fashion producers…

Co-producing simulation models to inform resource management: a case study from southwest South Dakota

Science.gov (United States)

Miller, Brian W.; Symstad, Amy J.; Frid, Leonardo; Fisichelli, Nicholas A.; Schuurman, Gregor W.

2017-01-01

Simulation models can represent complexities of the real world and serve as virtual laboratories for asking “what if…?” questions about how systems might respond to different scenarios. However, simulation models have limited relevance to real-world applications when designed without input from people who could use the simulated scenarios to inform their decisions. Here, we report on a state-and-transition simulation model of vegetation dynamics that was coupled to a scenario planning process and co-produced by researchers, resource managers, local subject-matter experts, and climate change adaptation specialists to explore potential effects of climate scenarios and management alternatives on key resources in southwest South Dakota. Input from management partners and local experts was critical for representing key vegetation types, bison and cattle grazing, exotic plants, fire, and the effects of climate change and management on rangeland productivity and composition given the paucity of published data on many of these topics. By simulating multiple land management jurisdictions, climate scenarios, and management alternatives, the model highlighted important tradeoffs between grazer density and vegetation composition, as well as between the short- and long-term costs of invasive species management. It also pointed to impactful uncertainties related to the effects of fire and grazing on vegetation. More broadly, a scenario-based approach to model co-production bracketed the uncertainty associated with climate change and ensured that the most important (and impactful) uncertainties related to resource management were addressed. This cooperative study demonstrates six opportunities for scientists to engage users throughout the modeling process to improve model utility and relevance: (1) identifying focal dynamics and variables, (2) developing conceptual model(s), (3) parameterizing the simulation, (4) identifying relevant climate scenarios and management

The Application of TAPM for Site Specific Wind Energy Forecasting

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Merlinde Kay

2016-02-01

Full Text Available The energy industry uses weather forecasts for determining future electricity demand variations due to the impact of weather, e.g., temperature and precipitation. However, as a greater component of electricity generation comes from intermittent renewable sources such as wind and solar, weather forecasting techniques need to now also focus on predicting renewable energy supply, which means adapting our prediction models to these site specific resources. This work assesses the performance of The Air Pollution Model (TAPM, and demonstrates that significant improvements can be made to only wind speed forecasts from a mesoscale Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP model. For this study, a wind farm site situated in North-west Tasmania, Australia was investigated. I present an analysis of the accuracy of hourly NWP and bias corrected wind speed forecasts over 12 months spanning 2005. This extensive time frame allows an in-depth analysis of various wind speed regimes of importance for wind-farm operation, as well as extreme weather risk scenarios. A further correction is made to the basic bias correction to improve the forecast accuracy further, that makes use of real-time wind-turbine data and a smoothing function to correct for timing-related issues. With full correction applied, a reduction in the error in the magnitude of the wind speed by as much as 50% for “hour ahead” forecasts specific to the wind-farm site has been obtained.

Mechanistic modeling of biocorrosion caused by biofilms of sulfate reducing bacteria and acid producing bacteria.

Science.gov (United States)

Xu, Dake; Li, Yingchao; Gu, Tingyue

2016-08-01

Biocorrosion is also known as microbiologically influenced corrosion (MIC). Most anaerobic MIC cases can be classified into two major types. Type I MIC involves non-oxygen oxidants such as sulfate and nitrate that require biocatalysis for their reduction in the cytoplasm of microbes such as sulfate reducing bacteria (SRB) and nitrate reducing bacteria (NRB). This means that the extracellular electrons from the oxidation of metal such as iron must be transported across cell walls into the cytoplasm. Type II MIC involves oxidants such as protons that are secreted by microbes such as acid producing bacteria (APB). The biofilms in this case supply the locally high concentrations of oxidants that are corrosive without biocatalysis. This work describes a mechanistic model that is based on the biocatalytic cathodic sulfate reduction (BCSR) theory. The model utilizes charge transfer and mass transfer concepts to describe the SRB biocorrosion process. The model also includes a mechanism to describe APB attack based on the local acidic pH at a pit bottom. A pitting prediction software package has been created based on the mechanisms. It predicts long-term pitting rates and worst-case scenarios after calibration using SRB short-term pit depth data. Various parameters can be investigated through computer simulation. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Advancing understanding of the sustainability of lay health advisor (LHA) programs for African-American women in community settings.

Science.gov (United States)

Shelton, Rachel C; Charles, Thana-Ashley; Dunston, Sheba King; Jandorf, Lina; Erwin, Deborah O

2017-09-01

Lay health advisor (LHA) programs have made strong contributions towards the elimination of health disparities and are increasingly being implemented to promote health and prevent disease. Developed in collaboration with African-American survivors, the National Witness Project (NWP) is an evidence-based, community-led LHA program that improves cancer screening among African-American women. NWP has been successfully disseminated, replicated, and implemented nationally in over 40 sites in 22 states in diverse community settings, reaching over 15,000 women annually. We sought to advance understanding of barriers and facilitators to the long-term implementation and sustainability of LHA programs in community settings from the viewpoint of the LHAs, as well as the broader impact of the program on African-American communities and LHAs. In the context of a mixed-methods study, in-depth telephone interviews were conducted among 76 African-American LHAs at eight NWP sites at baseline and 12-18 months later, between 2010 and 2013. Qualitative data provides insight into inner and outer contextual factors (e.g., community partnerships, site leadership, funding), implementation processes (e.g., training), as well as characteristics of the intervention (e.g., perceived need and fit in African-American community) and LHAs (e.g., motivations, burnout) that are perceived to impact the continued implementation and sustainability of NWP. Factors at the contextual levels and related to motivations of LHAs are critical to the sustainability of LHA programs. We discuss how findings are used to inform (1) the development of the LHA Sustainability Framework and (2) strategies to support the continued implementation and sustainability of evidence-based LHA interventions in community settings.

MATHEMATICAL MODEL DESIGNATED FOR THE ASSESSMENT OF THE INTEGRATED ENVIRONMENTAL LOAD PRODUCED BY A BUILDING PROJECT

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lapidus Azariy Abramovich

2012-10-01

The theoretical background of the proposed approach consists in an integrated methodology implemented in the system engineering of construction projects. A building system may be represented as the aggregate of all stages of construction works and participants involved in them. The building system is object-oriented, and it is implemented under the impact of pre-determined environmental factors. The core constituent of the building system represents a Production Technology Module (PTM, or summarized groups of processes. The model formula designated for the assessment of the intensity of the ecological load produced by the construction project onto the environment may be represented as follows:

Soyamilk fermented with riboflavin-producing Lactobacillus plantarum CRL 2130 reverts and prevents ariboflavinosis in murine models.

Science.gov (United States)

Juarez Del Valle, M; Laiño, J E; de Moreno de LeBlanc, A; Savoy de Giori, G; LeBlanc, J G

2016-10-01

It has been previously shown that Lactobacillus plantarum CRL 2130 is able to produce riboflavin in soyamilk. The aim of the present study was to evaluate the efficiency of this riboflavin-bio-enriched soyamilk to revert and/or prevent the nutritional deficiency of riboflavin using different animal models. When used to supplement the diets of previously depleted animals, it was shown that the growth, riboflavin status and morphology of the small intestines reverted to normal parameters and were similar to animals supplemented with commercial riboflavin. In the prevention model, the same tendency was observed, where animals that received soyamilk fermented with L. plantarum CRL 2130 did not show signs of riboflavin deficiency. This new bio-fortified soya-based product could be used as part of normal diets to provide a more natural alternative to mandatory fortification with riboflavin for the prevention of its deficiency.

WHite paper on the proposed design, development, and implementation of a monitored retrievable storage module and the siting criteria for spent nuclear fuel

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Villarreal, B.; Knobeloch, D.

1996-01-01

Congress enacted the Nuclear Waste Policy (NWP) Act in 1982 as comprehensive legislation for the DOE to locate, build, and operate repositories to permanently dispose of spent nuclear fuel and other high-level wastes. In 1987, Congress amended the NWP Act and authorized the DOE to site, construct, and operate one Monitored Retrievable Storage (MRS) facility. The MRS facility was planned as a means to enhance the flexibility and reliability of the overall waste management system. This white paper presents a broad prospectus of the scientific and regulatory capabilities at Los Alamos National Laboratory and outlines the methodology to design and implement an MRS test module. This proposed module will incorporate the flexibility to store all types of spent nuclear fuel above or below ground level and will be fully monitored for the residence time of the spent fuel in the MRS module. The purpose of this test module is to define the parameters necessary to build a simple and economical MRS system. Demonstration of the proposed MRS test module will be important because it will form the basis for an integrated MRS site model

Trajectory Calculation as Forecasting Support Tool for Dust Storms

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sultan Al-Yahyai

2014-01-01

Full Text Available In arid and semiarid regions, dust storms are common during windy seasons. Strong wind can blow loose sand from the dry surface. The rising sand and dust is then transported to other places depending on the wind conditions (speed and direction at different levels of the atmosphere. Considering dust as a moving object in space and time, trajectory calculation then can be used to determine the path it will follow. Trajectory calculation is used as a forecast supporting tool for both operational and research activities. Predefined dust sources can be identified and the trajectories can be precalculated from the Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP forecast. In case of long distance transported dust, the tool should allow the operational forecaster to perform online trajectory calculation. This paper presents a case study for using trajectory calculation based on NWP models as a forecast supporting tool in Oman Meteorological Service during some dust storm events. Case study validation results showed a good agreement between the calculated trajectories and the real transport path of the dust storms and hence trajectory calculation can be used at operational centers for warning purposes.

Genetically engineered mesenchymal stromal cells produce IL-3 and TPO to further improve human scaffold-based xenograft models.

Science.gov (United States)

Carretta, Marco; de Boer, Bauke; Jaques, Jenny; Antonelli, Antonella; Horton, Sarah J; Yuan, Huipin; de Bruijn, Joost D; Groen, Richard W J; Vellenga, Edo; Schuringa, Jan Jacob

2017-07-01

Recently, NOD-SCID IL2Rγ -/- (NSG) mice were implanted with human mesenchymal stromal cells (MSCs) in the presence of ceramic scaffolds or Matrigel to mimic the human bone marrow (BM) microenvironment. This approach allowed the engraftment of leukemic samples that failed to engraft in NSG mice without humanized niches and resulted in a better preservation of leukemic stem cell self-renewal properties. To further improve our humanized niche scaffold model, we genetically engineered human MSCs to secrete human interleukin-3 (IL-3) and thrombopoietin (TPO). In vitro, these IL-3- and TPO-producing MSCs were superior in expanding human cord blood (CB) CD34 + hematopoietic stem/progenitor cells. MLL-AF9-transduced CB CD34 + cells could be transformed efficiently along myeloid or lymphoid lineages on IL-3- and TPO-producing MSCs. In vivo, these genetically engineered MSCs maintained their ability to differentiate into bone, adipocytes, and other stromal components. Upon transplantation of MLL-AF9-transduced CB CD34 + cells, acute myeloid leukemia (AML) and acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) developed in engineered scaffolds, in which a significantly higher percentage of myeloid clones was observed in the mouse compartments compared with previous models. Engraftment of primary AML, B-cell ALL, and biphenotypic acute leukemia (BAL) patient samples was also evaluated, and all patient samples could engraft efficiently; the myeloid compartment of the BAL samples was better preserved in the human cytokine scaffold model. In conclusion, we show that we can genetically engineer the ectopic human BM microenvironment in a humanized scaffold xenograft model. This approach will be useful for functional study of the importance of niche factors in normal and malignant human hematopoiesis. Copyright © 2017 ISEH - International Society for Experimental Hematology. All rights reserved.

Stochastic modelling of Listeria monocytogenes single cell growth in cottage cheese with mesophilic lactic acid bacteria from aroma producing cultures

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Østergaard, Nina Bjerre; Christiansen, Lasse Engbo; Dalgaard, Paw

2015-01-01

. 2014. Modelling the effect of lactic acid bacteria from starter- and aroma culture on growth of Listeria monocytogenes in cottage cheese. International Journal of Food Microbiology. 188, 15-25]. Growth of L. monocytogenes single cells, using lag time distributions corresponding to three different......A stochastic model was developed for simultaneous growth of low numbers of Listeria monocytogenes and populations of lactic acid bacteria from the aroma producing cultures applied in cottage cheese. During more than two years, different batches of cottage cheese with aroma culture were analysed...

The CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed (CAPT): Where Climate Simulation Meets Weather Prediction

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Phillips, T J; Potter, G L; Williamson, D L; Cederwall, R T; Boyle, J S; Fiorino, M; Hnilo, J J; Olson, J G; Xie, S; Yio, J J

2003-11-21

To significantly improve the simulation of climate by general circulation models (GCMs), systematic errors in representations of relevant processes must first be identified, and then reduced. This endeavor demands, in particular, that the GCM parameterizations of unresolved processes should be tested over a wide range of time scales, not just in climate simulations. Thus, a numerical weather prediction (NWP) methodology for evaluating model parameterizations and gaining insights into their behavior may prove useful, provied that suitable adaptations are made for implementation in climate GCMs. This method entails the generation of short-range weather forecasts by realistically initialized climate GCM, and the application of six-hourly NWP analyses and observations of parameterized variables to evaluate these forecasts. The behavior of the parameterizations in such a weather-forecasting framework can provide insights on how these schemes might be improved, and modified parameterizations then can be similarly tested. In order to further this method for evaluating and analyzing parameterizations in climate GCMs, the USDOE is funding a joint venture of its Climate Change Prediction Program (CCPP) and Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program: the CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed (CAPT). This article elaborates the scientific rationale for CAPT, discusses technical aspects of its methodology, and presents examples of its implementation in a representative climate GCM. Numerical weather prediction methods show promise for improving parameterizations in climate GCMs.

Strategic bidding for wind power producers in electricity markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sharma, Kailash Chand; Bhakar, Rohit; Tiwari, H.P.

2014-01-01

Highlights: • Game theoretic bidding strategy approach developed to optimize wind power producers bids. • Rival behavior modeled through Stochastic Cournot model. • Location based dual imbalance price mechanism proposed to obtain imbalance charges. • Proposed approach evaluated using two realistic case studies. • Proposed approach increases profit of strategic wind power producers significantly. - Abstract: In evolving electricity markets, wind power producers (WPPs) would increase their profit through strategic bidding. However, generated power by WPPs is highly random, which may result into heavy imbalance charges. In markets dominated by wind generators, they would optimize their offered bids, considering rival behavior. In oligopolistic day-ahead electricity markets, this strategic behavior can be represented as a Stochastic Cournot model. Wind uncertainty is represented by scenarios generated using Auto Regressive Moving Average (ARMA) model. With a consideration of wind power uncertainty and imbalance charges, strategic WPPs can maximize their expected payoff or profit through the proposed Nash equilibrium based bidding strategy. Nash equilibrium is obtained using payoff matrix approach. Proposed approach is evaluated on two realistic case studies considering different technical constraints. Obtained results shows that proposed bidding strategy mechanism offers quantum increase in profit for WPPs, when their behavior is modeled in a game theoretic framework. Flexibility of approach offers opportunities for its extension to associated challenges

Evaluating cloud processes in large-scale models: Of idealized case studies, parameterization testbeds and single-column modelling on climate time-scales

Science.gov (United States)

Neggers, Roel

2016-04-01

Boundary-layer schemes have always formed an integral part of General Circulation Models (GCMs) used for numerical weather and climate prediction. The spatial and temporal scales associated with boundary-layer processes and clouds are typically much smaller than those at which GCMs are discretized, which makes their representation through parameterization a necessity. The need for generally applicable boundary-layer parameterizations has motivated many scientific studies, which in effect has created its own active research field in the atmospheric sciences. Of particular interest has been the evaluation of boundary-layer schemes at "process-level". This means that parameterized physics are studied in isolated mode from the larger-scale circulation, using prescribed forcings and excluding any upscale interaction. Although feedbacks are thus prevented, the benefit is an enhanced model transparency, which might aid an investigator in identifying model errors and understanding model behavior. The popularity and success of the process-level approach is demonstrated by the many past and ongoing model inter-comparison studies that have been organized by initiatives such as GCSS/GASS. A red line in the results of these studies is that although most schemes somehow manage to capture first-order aspects of boundary layer cloud fields, there certainly remains room for improvement in many areas. Only too often are boundary layer parameterizations still found to be at the heart of problems in large-scale models, negatively affecting forecast skills of NWP models or causing uncertainty in numerical predictions of future climate. How to break this parameterization "deadlock" remains an open problem. This presentation attempts to give an overview of the various existing methods for the process-level evaluation of boundary-layer physics in large-scale models. This includes i) idealized case studies, ii) longer-term evaluation at permanent meteorological sites (the testbed approach

Validation of mixing height determined from vertical profiles of wind and temperature from the DMI-HIRLAM NWP model in comparison with readiosoundings

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rasmussen, A.; Soerensen, J.H.; Nielsen, N.W. [Danish Meteorological Inst., DMI, Copenhagen (Denmark)

1997-10-01

A sensitivity study is performed of vertical profiles from the numerical weather prediction model DMI-HIRLAM (DMI-HIgh Resolution Limited Area Model). The study involves profiles of horizontal wind, temperature and humidity in the lower troposphere up to 2500 meter. Detailed comparisons of analysed as well as forecast profiles are made with measured data from several radio-sonde stations throughout Europe. Methods for estimating the Mixing Height (MH) based on a bulk Richardson number method, the Vogelezang and Holtslag method and parcel methods are also studied. The methods are inter-compared, and MH based on data from DMI-HIRLAM are compared with the corresponding MH based on radiosonde data. For convective conditions the MH estimates are also compared with subjective estimates of the MH. In this paper preliminary results mainly based on data from Jaegersborg (Copenhagen) are presented. Results based on data from 1994-95 show that the resemblance between measured profiles and the DMI-HIRLAM profiles is fairly good in general. Also the estimates of the MH based on DMI-HIRLAM data is in general of nearly the same quality as estimations based on observed data. However, especially in convective conditions there is a tendency by DMI-HIRLAM to underestimate the strength of the mixing and thereby relatively large errors in the estimates of the MH can occur. (au)

Ann Modeling for Grey Particles Produced from Interactions of Different Projectiles with Emulsion Nuclei at 4.5 AGEV/C

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

El-Bakry, M.N.Y.; Basha, A.M.; Rashed, N.; Mahmoud, M.A.; Radi, A.

2008-01-01

Artificial Neural Network (ANN) is one of the important tools in high energy physics. In this paper, we are using ANN for modeling the multiplicity distributions of grey particles produced from interactions of P, 3 He, 4 He, 6 Li, 12 C, 24 Mg, and 32 S with emulsion nuclei, light nuclei (CNO), and heavy nuclei (Ag Br). The equations of these distributions were obtained

Routine prediction of smoke transport from fuel reduction burns in southwest Western Australia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mills, G.A.; Hess, G.D.; Draxler, R.R.

1997-01-01

The Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre (BMRC) has recently developed a mesoscale numerical weather prediction system and, in collaboration wit NOAA/ARL, implemented a sophisticated Lagrangian dispersion/transport model for long-range air pollution applications. Linking these two systems provides a method of predicting the path taken by smoke from bushfires, and was applied daily over southwestern Western Australia during the spring/summer of 1996-7. This paper very briefly describes the NWP model and the dispersion models, demonstrates their application in a case of smoke pollution over Perth in November 1995, and then discusses the utility of the experimental daily smoke trajectory forecasts

ESBL-Producing Escherichia coli

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hertz, Frederik Boetius

Urinary tract infection (UTI) is one the most common bacterial infections and is regularly treated in primary health care. The most common cause of UTI is extraintestinal pathogenic Escherichia coli (ExPEC) already present in the intestinal microflora, often as the dominating strain. Resistance...... in E.coli is increasing and especially isolates producing Extended-Spectrum Beta-Lactamases (ESBL) have been reported worldwide. Treatment of UTI is usually initiated by the general practitioners and a significant proportion of clinical isolates are now resistant to first line antibiotics. The global...... to investigate (i) antibiotics involved in selection of ESBL-producing E.coli, in an experimental mouse model in vivo, (ii) risk factors for UTI with ESBL-producing E.coli and (iii) to describe the phylogenetic composition of E.coli populations with different resistance patterns. We found that different...

Integrated use of NMR, petrel and modflow in the modeling of SAGD produced water re-injection

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Campbell, K.; Phair, C; Alloisio, S; Novotny, M; Raven, S

2011-01-01

In the oil industry, steam assisted gravity drainage (SAGD) is a method used to enhance oil recovery in which production water disposal is a challenge. During this process, production water is re-injected into the reservoir and operators have to verify that it will not affect the quality of the surrounding fresh groundwater. This research aimed at determining the flow path and the time that produced water would take to reach an adjacent aquifer. This study was carried out on a horizontal well pair at the Axe Lake Area in northwestern Saskatchewan, using existing site data in Petrel to create a static hydrogeological model which was then exported to Modflow to simulate injection scenarios. This innovative method provided flow path of the re-injected water and time to reach the fresh with advantages over conventional hydrogeological modeling. The innovative workflow presented herein successfully provided useful information to assess the feasibility of the SAGD project and could be used for other projects.

Integrated Wind Power Planning Tool

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rosgaard, M. H.; Hahmann, Andrea N.; Nielsen, T. S.

This poster describes the status as of April 2012 of the Public Service Obligation (PSO) funded project PSO 10464 \\Integrated Wind Power Planning Tool". The project goal is to integrate a meso scale numerical weather prediction (NWP) model with a statistical tool in order to better predict short...... term power variation from off shore wind farms, as well as to conduct forecast error assessment studies in preparation for later implementation of such a feature in an existing simulation model. The addition of a forecast error estimation feature will further increase the value of this tool, as it...

Distinguishing high and low flow domains in urban drainage systems 2 days ahead using numerical weather prediction ensembles

Science.gov (United States)

Courdent, Vianney; Grum, Morten; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen

2018-01-01

Precipitation constitutes a major contribution to the flow in urban storm- and wastewater systems. Forecasts of the anticipated runoff flows, created from radar extrapolation and/or numerical weather predictions, can potentially be used to optimize operation in both wet and dry weather periods. However, flow forecasts are inevitably uncertain and their use will ultimately require a trade-off between the value of knowing what will happen in the future and the probability and consequence of being wrong. In this study we examine how ensemble forecasts from the HIRLAM-DMI-S05 numerical weather prediction (NWP) model subject to three different ensemble post-processing approaches can be used to forecast flow exceedance in a combined sewer for a wide range of ratios between the probability of detection (POD) and the probability of false detection (POFD). We use a hydrological rainfall-runoff model to transform the forecasted rainfall into forecasted flow series and evaluate three different approaches to establishing the relative operating characteristics (ROC) diagram of the forecast, which is a plot of POD against POFD for each fraction of concordant ensemble members and can be used to select the weight of evidence that matches the desired trade-off between POD and POFD. In the first approach, the rainfall input to the model is calculated for each of 25 ensemble members as a weighted average of rainfall from the NWP cells over the catchment where the weights are proportional to the areal intersection between the catchment and the NWP cells. In the second approach, a total of 2825 flow ensembles are generated using rainfall input from the neighbouring NWP cells up to approximately 6 cells in all directions from the catchment. In the third approach, the first approach is extended spatially by successively increasing the area covered and for each spatial increase and each time step selecting only the cell with the highest intensity resulting in a total of 175 ensemble

Nuclear and hadronic reaction mechanisms producing spin asymmetry

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

We briefly review concept of the quark recombination (QRC) model and a general success of the model. To solve the existing problem, so called anomalous spin observables, in the high energy hyperon spin phenomena, we propose a mechanism; the primarily produced quarks, which are predominantly and quarks, ...

Mathematical modeling and numerical analysis of the growth of Non-O157 shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli in spinach leaves

Science.gov (United States)

This study was conducted to investigate the growth of non-O157 Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli (STEC) in spinach leaves and to develop kinetic models to describe the bacterial growth. Six serogroups of non-O157 STEC, including O26, O45, O103, O111, O121, and O145, were used in the growth stu...

Long-term observations minus background monitoring of ground-based brightness temperatures from a microwave radiometer network

Science.gov (United States)

De Angelis, Francesco; Cimini, Domenico; Löhnert, Ulrich; Caumont, Olivier; Haefele, Alexander; Pospichal, Bernhard; Martinet, Pauline; Navas-Guzmán, Francisco; Klein-Baltink, Henk; Dupont, Jean-Charles; Hocking, James

2017-10-01

Ground-based microwave radiometers (MWRs) offer the capability to provide continuous, high-temporal-resolution observations of the atmospheric thermodynamic state in the planetary boundary layer (PBL) with low maintenance. This makes MWR an ideal instrument to supplement radiosonde and satellite observations when initializing numerical weather prediction (NWP) models through data assimilation. State-of-the-art data assimilation systems (e.g. variational schemes) require an accurate representation of the differences between model (background) and observations, which are then weighted by their respective errors to provide the best analysis of the true atmospheric state. In this perspective, one source of information is contained in the statistics of the differences between observations and their background counterparts (O-B). Monitoring of O-B statistics is crucial to detect and remove systematic errors coming from the measurements, the observation operator, and/or the NWP model. This work illustrates a 1-year O-B analysis for MWR observations in clear-sky conditions for an European-wide network of six MWRs. Observations include MWR brightness temperatures (TB) measured by the two most common types of MWR instruments. Background profiles are extracted from the French convective-scale model AROME-France before being converted into TB. The observation operator used to map atmospheric profiles into TB is the fast radiative transfer model RTTOV-gb. It is shown that O-B monitoring can effectively detect instrument malfunctions. O-B statistics (bias, standard deviation, and root mean square) for water vapour channels (22.24-30.0 GHz) are quite consistent for all the instrumental sites, decreasing from the 22.24 GHz line centre ( ˜ 2-2.5 K) towards the high-frequency wing ( ˜ 0.8-1.3 K). Statistics for zenith and lower-elevation observations show a similar trend, though values increase with increasing air mass. O-B statistics for temperature channels show different

Aerosol direct radiative effects over the northwest Atlantic, northwest Pacific, and North Indian Oceans: estimates based on in-situ chemical and optical measurements and chemical transport modeling

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

T. S. Bates

2006-01-01

Full Text Available The largest uncertainty in the radiative forcing of climate change over the industrial era is that due to aerosols, a substantial fraction of which is the uncertainty associated with scattering and absorption of shortwave (solar radiation by anthropogenic aerosols in cloud-free conditions (IPCC, 2001. Quantifying and reducing the uncertainty in aerosol influences on climate is critical to understanding climate change over the industrial period and to improving predictions of future climate change for assumed emission scenarios. Measurements of aerosol properties during major field campaigns in several regions of the globe during the past decade are contributing to an enhanced understanding of atmospheric aerosols and their effects on light scattering and climate. The present study, which focuses on three regions downwind of major urban/population centers (North Indian Ocean (NIO during INDOEX, the Northwest Pacific Ocean (NWP during ACE-Asia, and the Northwest Atlantic Ocean (NWA during ICARTT, incorporates understanding gained from field observations of aerosol distributions and properties into calculations of perturbations in radiative fluxes due to these aerosols. This study evaluates the current state of observations and of two chemical transport models (STEM and MOZART. Measurements of burdens, extinction optical depth (AOD, and direct radiative effect of aerosols (DRE – change in radiative flux due to total aerosols are used as measurement-model check points to assess uncertainties. In-situ measured and remotely sensed aerosol properties for each region (mixing state, mass scattering efficiency, single scattering albedo, and angular scattering properties and their dependences on relative humidity are used as input parameters to two radiative transfer models (GFDL and University of Michigan to constrain estimates of aerosol radiative effects, with uncertainties in each step propagated through the analysis. Constraining the radiative

Metabolic network reconstruction and genome-scale model of butanol-producing strain Clostridium beijerinckii NCIMB 8052

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kim Pan-Jun

2011-08-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Solventogenic clostridia offer a sustainable alternative to petroleum-based production of butanol--an important chemical feedstock and potential fuel additive or replacement. C. beijerinckii is an attractive microorganism for strain design to improve butanol production because it (i naturally produces the highest recorded butanol concentrations as a byproduct of fermentation; and (ii can co-ferment pentose and hexose sugars (the primary products from lignocellulosic hydrolysis. Interrogating C. beijerinckii metabolism from a systems viewpoint using constraint-based modeling allows for simulation of the global effect of genetic modifications. Results We present the first genome-scale metabolic model (iCM925 for C. beijerinckii, containing 925 genes, 938 reactions, and 881 metabolites. To build the model we employed a semi-automated procedure that integrated genome annotation information from KEGG, BioCyc, and The SEED, and utilized computational algorithms with manual curation to improve model completeness. Interestingly, we found only a 34% overlap in reactions collected from the three databases--highlighting the importance of evaluating the predictive accuracy of the resulting genome-scale model. To validate iCM925, we conducted fermentation experiments using the NCIMB 8052 strain, and evaluated the ability of the model to simulate measured substrate uptake and product production rates. Experimentally observed fermentation profiles were found to lie within the solution space of the model; however, under an optimal growth objective, additional constraints were needed to reproduce the observed profiles--suggesting the existence of selective pressures other than optimal growth. Notably, a significantly enriched fraction of actively utilized reactions in simulations--constrained to reflect experimental rates--originated from the set of reactions that overlapped between all three databases (P = 3.52 × 10-9, Fisher's exact test

Comparison Between Wind Power Prediction Models Based on Wavelet Decomposition with Least-Squares Support Vector Machine (LS-SVM and Artificial Neural Network (ANN

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Maria Grazia De Giorgi

2014-08-01

Full Text Available A high penetration of wind energy into the electricity market requires a parallel development of efficient wind power forecasting models. Different hybrid forecasting methods were applied to wind power prediction, using historical data and numerical weather predictions (NWP. A comparative study was carried out for the prediction of the power production of a wind farm located in complex terrain. The performances of Least-Squares Support Vector Machine (LS-SVM with Wavelet Decomposition (WD were evaluated at different time horizons and compared to hybrid Artificial Neural Network (ANN-based methods. It is acknowledged that hybrid methods based on LS-SVM with WD mostly outperform other methods. A decomposition of the commonly known root mean square error was beneficial for a better understanding of the origin of the differences between prediction and measurement and to compare the accuracy of the different models. A sensitivity analysis was also carried out in order to underline the impact that each input had in the network training process for ANN. In the case of ANN with the WD technique, the sensitivity analysis was repeated on each component obtained by the decomposition.

Traumatic brain injury produced by exposure to blasts, a critical problem in current wars: biomarkers, clinical studies, and animal models

Science.gov (United States)

Dixon, C. Edward

2011-06-01

Traumatic brain injury (TBI) resulting from exposure to blast energy released by Improvised Explosive Devices (IEDs) has been recognized as the "signature injury" of Operation Iraqi Freedom and Operation Enduring Freedom. Repeated exposure to mild blasts may produce subtle deficits that are difficult to detect and quantify. Several techniques have been used to detect subtle brain dysfunction including neuropsychological assessments, computerized function testing and neuroimaging. Another approach is based on measurement of biologic substances (e.g. proteins) that are released into the body after a TBI. Recent studies measuring biomarkers in CSF and serum from patients with severe TBI have demonstrated the diagnostic, prognostic, and monitoring potential. Advancement of the field will require 1) biochemical mining for new biomarker candidates, 2) clinical validation of utility, 3) technical advances for more sensitive, portable detectors, 4) novel statistical approach to evaluate multiple biomarkers, and 5) commercialization. Animal models have been developed to simulate elements of blast-relevant TBI including gas-driven shock tubes to generate pressure waves similar to those produced by explosives. These models can reproduce hallmark clinical neuropathological responses such as neuronal degeneration and inflammation, as well as behavioral impairments. An important application of these models is to screen novel therapies and conduct proteomic, genomic, and lipodomic studies to mine for new biomarker candidates specific to blast relevant TBI.

Optimal contracts for wind power producers in electricity markets

KAUST Repository

Bitar, E.; Giani, A.; Rajagopal, R.; Varagnolo, D.; Khargonekar, P.; Poolla, K.; Varaiya, P.

2010-01-01

This paper is focused on optimal contracts for an independent wind power producer in conventional electricity markets. Starting with a simple model of the uncertainty in the production of power from a wind turbine farm and a model for the electric

Theoretical thermal dosimetry produced by an annular phased array system in CT-based patient models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Paulsen, K.D.; Strohbehn, J.W.; Lynch, D.R.

1984-01-01

Theoretical calculations for the specific absorption rate (SAR) and the resulting temperature distributions produced by an annular phased array (APA) type system are made. The finite element numerical method is used in the formulation of both the electromagnetic (EM) and the thermal boundary value problems. A number of detailed patient models based on CT-scan data from the pelvic, visceral, and thoracic regions are generated to stimulate a variety of tumor locations and surrounding normal tissues. The SAR values from the EM solution are input into the bioheat transfer equation, and steady-rate temperature distributions are calculated for a wide variety of blood flow rates. Based on theoretical modeling, the APA shows no preferential heating of superficial over deep-seated tumors. However, in most cases satisfactory thermal profiles (therapeutic volume near 60%) are obtained in all three regions of the human trunk only for tumors with little or no blood flow. Unsatisfactory temperature patterns (therapeutic volume <50%) are found for tumors with moderate to high perfusion rates. These theoretical calculations should aid the clinician in the evaluation of the effectiveness of APA type devices in heating tumors located in the trunk region

Using Multi-Scale Modeling Systems and Satellite Data to Study the Precipitation Processes

Science.gov (United States)

Tao, Wei-Kuo; Chern, J.; Lamg, S.; Matsui, T.; Shen, B.; Zeng, X.; Shi, R.

2011-01-01

In recent years, exponentially increasing computer power has extended Cloud Resolving Model (CRM) integrations from hours to months, the number of computational grid points from less than a thousand to close to ten million. Three-dimensional models are now more prevalent. Much attention is devoted to precipitating cloud systems where the crucial 1-km scales are resolved in horizontal domains as large as 10,000 km in two-dimensions, and 1,000 x 1,000 km2 in three-dimensions. Cloud resolving models now provide statistical information useful for developing more realistic physically based parameterizations for climate models and numerical weather prediction models. It is also expected that NWP and mesoscale model can be run in grid size similar to cloud resolving model through nesting technique. Recently, a multi-scale modeling system with unified physics was developed at NASA Goddard. It consists of (l) a cloud-resolving model (Goddard Cumulus Ensemble model, GCE model), (2) a regional scale model (a NASA unified weather research and forecast, WRF), (3) a coupled CRM and global model (Goddard Multi-scale Modeling Framework, MMF), and (4) a land modeling system. The same microphysical processes, long and short wave radiative transfer and land processes and the explicit cloud-radiation, and cloud-land surface interactive processes are applied in this multi-scale modeling system. This modeling system has been coupled with a multi-satellite simulator to use NASA high-resolution satellite data to identify the strengths and weaknesses of cloud and precipitation processes simulated by the model. In this talk, the recent developments and applications of the multi-scale modeling system will be presented. In particular, the results from using multi-scale modeling system to study the precipitating systems and hurricanes/typhoons will be presented. The high-resolution spatial and temporal visualization will be utilized to show the evolution of precipitation processes. Also how to

Preliminary characterization of wild lactic acid bacteria and their abilities to produce flavour compounds in ripened model cheese system.

Science.gov (United States)

Randazzo, C L; De Luca, S; Todaro, A; Restuccia, C; Lanza, C M; Spagna, G; Caggia, C

2007-08-01

The aim of this work was to preliminary characterize wild lactic acid bacteria (LAB), previously isolated during artisanal Pecorino Siciliano (PS) cheese-making for technological and flavour formation abilities in a model cheese system. Twelve LAB were studied for the ability to grow at 10 and 45 degrees C, to coagulate and acidify both reconstituted skim milk and ewe's milk. Moreover, the capacity of the strains to generate aroma compounds was evaluated in a model cheese system at 30- and 60-day ripening. Flavour compounds were screened by sensory analysis and throughout gas chromatography (GC)-mass spectrometry (MS). Most of the strains were able to grow both at 10 and 45 degrees C and exhibited high ability to acidify and coagulate ewes' milk. Sensory evaluation revealed that the wild strains produced more significant flavour attributes than commercial strains in the 60-day-old model cheese system. GC-MS data confirmed the results of sensory evaluations and showed the ability of wild lactobacilli to generate key volatile compounds. Particularly, three wild lactobacilli strains, belonging to Lactobacillus casei, Lb. rhamnosus and Lb. plantarum species, generated both in 60- and 30-day-old model cheeses system, the 3-methyl butan(al)(ol) compound, which is associated with fruity taste. The present work preliminarily demonstrated that the technological and flavour formation abilities of the wild strains are strain-specific and that wild lactobacilli, which produced key flavour compounds during ripening, could be used as tailor-made starters. This study reports the technological characterization and flavour formation ability of wild LAB strains isolated from artisanal Pecorino cheese and highlights that the catabolic activities were highly strain dependent. Hence, wild lactobacilli could be selected as tailor-made starter cultures for the PS cheese manufacture.

Atmospheric occurrence, transport and gas-particle partitioning of polychlorinated biphenyls over the northwestern Pacific Ocean

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Zilan; Lin, Tian; Li, Zhongxia; Li, Yuanyuan; Guo, Tianfeng; Guo, Zhigang

2017-10-01

Ship-board air samples were collected during March to May 2015 from the East China Sea (ECS) to the northwestern Pacific Ocean (NWP) to explore the atmospheric occurrence and gas-particle partitioning of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) when the westerly East Asian Monsoon prevailed. Total PCB concentrations in the atmosphere ranged from 56.8 to 261 pg m-3. Higher PCB levels were observed off the coast and minor temperature-induced changes showed that continuous emissions from East Asia remain as an important source to the regional atmosphere. A significant relationship between Koa (octanol-air partition coefficient) and KP (gas-particle partition coefficient) for PCBs was observed under continental air masses, suggesting that land-derived organic aerosols affected the PCB gas-particle partitioning after long-range transport, while an absence of this correlation was identified in marine air masses. The PCB partitioning cannot be fully explained by the absorptive mechanism as the predicted KP were found to be 2-3 orders of magnitude lower than the measured Kp, while the prediction was closely matched when soot adsorption was considered. The results suggested the importance of soot carbon as a transport medium for PCBs during their long-range transport and considerable impacts of continental outflows on PCBs across the downwind area. The estimated transport mass of particulate PCBs into the ECS and NWP totals 2333 kg during the spring, constituting ca. 17% of annual emission inventories of unintentionally produced PCB in China.

Long-Term Seafloor Electromagnetic Observation in the Northwest Pacific May Detect the Vector Geomagnetic Secular Variation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

H Toh

2010-03-01

Full Text Available Sea Floor ElectroMagnetic Stations (SFEMSs are now operating at two deep seafloor sites called the 'WPB' and the 'NWP' in the West Philippine Basin and the Northwest Pacific Basin, respectively. One of the main objectives of the SFEMSs is to detect the geomagnetic secular variations on the deep seafloor where long-term geomagnetic observations have not so far been achieved. SFEMSs can measure the absolute geomagnetic total force as well as the geomagnetic vector field with precise attitude monitoring systems. The vector geomagnetic time-series that was observed for more than 5 years revealed that the westward drift of the equatorial dipole dominates in the geomagnetic secular variation at the NWP.

Evaluation of Dynamical Downscaling Resolution Effect on Wind Energy Forecast Value for a Wind Farm in Central Sweden

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rosgaard, Martin Haubjerg; Hahmann, Andrea N.; Nielsen, Torben Skov

accuracy metric evaluated for wind speed data consistently translates to an improvement for wind power. For two time series describing the temporal development of the same variable, though by different means, it is assumed that phase errors account for most of the departure from perfect correlation between...... the two time series. Results on limited-area NWP model performance, with focus on the 12th to 48th forecast hour horizon relevant for Elspot auction bidding on the Nord Pool Spot market [2], are presented....

Atmospheric signals produced by cavity rebound

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jones, E.M.; App, F.N.; Whitaker, R.W.

1993-01-01

An analysis of the atmospheric acoustic signals produced by a class of low-yield tests conducted just below the base of the alluvial cover in Yucca Flat of the Nevada Test Site (NTS), has revealed a clear manifestation of an elastic, cavity rebound signal. We use modeling as the basis for understanding the observed phenomena

Effects of build parameters on linear wear loss in plastic part produced by fused deposition modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Mohamed, Omar Ahmed; Masood, Syed Hasan; Bhowmik, Jahar Lal

2017-07-01

Fused Deposition Modeling (FDM) is one of the prominent additive manufacturing technologies for producing polymer products. FDM is a complex additive manufacturing process that can be influenced by many process conditions. The industrial demands required from the FDM process are increasing with higher level product functionality and properties. The functionality and performance of FDM manufactured parts are greatly influenced by the combination of many various FDM process parameters. Designers and researchers always pay attention to study the effects of FDM process parameters on different product functionalities and properties such as mechanical strength, surface quality, dimensional accuracy, build time and material consumption. However, very limited studies have been carried out to investigate and optimize the effect of FDM build parameters on wear performance. This study focuses on the effect of different build parameters on micro-structural and wear performance of FDM specimens using definitive screening design based quadratic model. This would reduce the cost and effort of additive manufacturing engineer to have a systematic approachto make decision among the manufacturing parameters to achieve the desired product quality.

Modeling and investigation of submerged fermentation process to produce extracellular polysaccharide using Lactobacillus confusus.

Science.gov (United States)

Thirugnanasambandham, K; Sivakumar, V; Prakash Maran, J

2014-12-19

The main objective of the present study is to investigate and optimize the Submerged fermentation (SMF) process parameters such as addition of coconut water, NaCl dose, incubation time and temperature on the production of extracellular polysaccharide (EPS) and biomass production using Lactobacillus confuses. Response surface methodology (RSM) coupled with four factors three level Box-Behnken design (BBD) was employed to model the SMF process. RSM analysis indicated good correspondence between experimental and predicted values. Three dimentional (3D) response surface plots were used to study the interactive effects of process variables on SMF process. The optimum process conditions for the maximum production of EPS and biomass were found to be as follows; addition of coconut water of 40%, NaCl dose of 15%, incubation time of 24h and temperature of 35°C. Under these conditions, 10.57 g/L of EPS and 3.9 g/L of biomass were produced. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Reasons for U.S. Producer Selection of a Goat Enterprise

OpenAIRE

Dunn, Brittany; Nyaupane, Narayan; Gillispie, Jeffrey; McMillan, Kenneth

2014-01-01

This paper addresses 14 possible reasons why meat goat producers selected to engage in meat goat production, with results having implications for research, extension, and teaching efforts. A survey of meat goat producers was conducted. Reasons for entering meat goat production were assessed and analyzed using ordered probit models.

Verifying Operational and Developmental Air Force Weather Cloud Analysis and Forecast Products Using Lidar Data from Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Sites

Science.gov (United States)

Hildebrand, E. P.

2017-12-01

Air Force Weather has developed various cloud analysis and forecast products designed to support global Department of Defense (DoD) missions. A World-Wide Merged Cloud Analysis (WWMCA) and short term Advected Cloud (ADVCLD) forecast is generated hourly using data from 16 geostationary and polar-orbiting satellites. Additionally, WWMCA and Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) data are used in a statistical long-term (out to five days) cloud forecast model known as the Diagnostic Cloud Forecast (DCF). The WWMCA and ADVCLD are generated on the same polar stereographic 24 km grid for each hemisphere, whereas the DCF is generated on the same grid as its parent NWP model. When verifying the cloud forecast models, the goal is to understand not only the ability to detect cloud, but also the ability to assign it to the correct vertical layer. ADVCLD and DCF forecasts traditionally have been verified using WWMCA data as truth, but this might over-inflate the performance of those models because WWMCA also is a primary input dataset for those models. Because of this, in recent years, a WWMCA Reanalysis product has been developed, but this too is not a fully independent dataset. This year, work has been done to incorporate data from external, independent sources to verify not only the cloud forecast products, but the WWMCA data itself. One such dataset that has been useful for examining the 3-D performance of the cloud analysis and forecast models is Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) data from various sites around the globe. This presentation will focus on the use of the Department of Energy (DoE) ARM data to verify Air Force Weather cloud analysis and forecast products. Results will be presented to show relative strengths and weaknesses of the analyses and forecasts.

Role of muscle pulleys in producing eye position-dependence in the angular vestibuloocular reflex: a model-based study

Science.gov (United States)

Thurtell, M. J.; Kunin, M.; Raphan, T.; Wall, C. C. (Principal Investigator)

2000-01-01

It is well established that the head and eye velocity axes do not always align during compensatory vestibular slow phases. It has been shown that the eye velocity axis systematically tilts away from the head velocity axis in a manner that is dependent on eye-in-head position. The mechanisms responsible for producing these axis tilts are unclear. In this model-based study, we aimed to determine whether muscle pulleys could be involved in bringing about these phenomena. The model presented incorporates semicircular canals, central vestibular pathways, and an ocular motor plant with pulleys. The pulleys were modeled so that they brought about a rotation of the torque axes of the extraocular muscles that was a fraction of the angle of eye deviation from primary position. The degree to which the pulleys rotated the torque axes was altered by means of a pulley coefficient. Model input was head velocity and initial eye position data from passive and active yaw head impulses with fixation at 0 degrees, 20 degrees up and 20 degrees down, obtained from a previous experiment. The optimal pulley coefficient required to fit the data was determined by calculating the mean square error between data and model predictions of torsional eye velocity. For active head impulses, the optimal pulley coefficient varied considerably between subjects. The median optimal pulley coefficient was found to be 0.5, the pulley coefficient required for producing saccades that perfectly obey Listing's law when using a two-dimensional saccadic pulse signal. The model predicted the direction of the axis tilts observed in response to passive head impulses from 50 ms after onset. During passive head impulses, the median optimal pulley coefficient was found to be 0.21, when roll gain was fixed at 0.7. The model did not accurately predict the alignment of the eye and head velocity axes that was observed early in the response to passive head impulses. We found that this alignment could be well predicted if

Characterization of multiple antilisterial peptides produced by sakacin P-producing Lactobacillus sakei subsp. sakei 2a.

Science.gov (United States)

Carvalho, Kátia G; Bambirra, Felipe H S; Nicoli, Jacques R; Oliveira, Jamil S; Santos, Alexandre M C; Bemquerer, Marcelo P; Miranda, Antonio; Franco, Bernadette D G M

2018-05-01

Antimicrobial compounds produced by lactic acid bacteria can be explored as natural food biopreservatives. In a previous report, the main antimicrobial compounds produced by the Brazilian meat isolate Lactobacillus sakei subsp. sakei 2a, i.e., bacteriocin sakacin P and two ribosomal peptides (P2 and P3) active against Listeria monocytogenes, were described. In this study, we report the spectrum of activity, molecular mass, structural identity and mechanism of action of additional six antilisterial peptides produced by Lb. sakei 2a, detected in a 24 h-culture in MRS broth submitted to acid treatment (pH 1.5) and proper fractionation and purification steps for obtention of free and cell-bound proteins. The six peptides presented similarity to different ribosomal proteins of Lb. sakei subsp sakei 23K and the molecular masses varied from 4.6 to 11.0 kDa. All peptides were capable to increase the efflux of ATP and decrease the membrane potential in Listeria monocytogenes. The activity of a pool of the obtained antilisterial compounds [enriched active fraction (EAF)] against Listeria monocytogenes in a food model (meat gravy) during refrigerated storage (4 °C) for 10 days was also tested and results indicated that the populations of L. monocytogenes in the food model containing the acid extract remained lower than those at time 0-day, evidencing that the acid extract of a culture of Lb. sakei 2a is a good technological alternative for the control of growth of L. monocytogenes in foods.

Learning to Produce Syllabic Speech Sounds via Reward-Modulated Neural Plasticity

Science.gov (United States)

Warlaumont, Anne S.; Finnegan, Megan K.

2016-01-01

At around 7 months of age, human infants begin to reliably produce well-formed syllables containing both consonants and vowels, a behavior called canonical babbling. Over subsequent months, the frequency of canonical babbling continues to increase. How the infant’s nervous system supports the acquisition of this ability is unknown. Here we present a computational model that combines a spiking neural network, reinforcement-modulated spike-timing-dependent plasticity, and a human-like vocal tract to simulate the acquisition of canonical babbling. Like human infants, the model’s frequency of canonical babbling gradually increases. The model is rewarded when it produces a sound that is more auditorily salient than sounds it has previously produced. This is consistent with data from human infants indicating that contingent adult responses shape infant behavior and with data from deaf and tracheostomized infants indicating that hearing, including hearing one’s own vocalizations, is critical for canonical babbling development. Reward receipt increases the level of dopamine in the neural network. The neural network contains a reservoir with recurrent connections and two motor neuron groups, one agonist and one antagonist, which control the masseter and orbicularis oris muscles, promoting or inhibiting mouth closure. The model learns to increase the number of salient, syllabic sounds it produces by adjusting the base level of muscle activation and increasing their range of activity. Our results support the possibility that through dopamine-modulated spike-timing-dependent plasticity, the motor cortex learns to harness its natural oscillations in activity in order to produce syllabic sounds. It thus suggests that learning to produce rhythmic mouth movements for speech production may be supported by general cortical learning mechanisms. The model makes several testable predictions and has implications for our understanding not only of how syllabic vocalizations develop

A Mathematical Model of the Modified Atmosphere Packaging (MAP System for the Gas Transmission Rate of Fruit Produce

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Li Li

2010-01-01

Full Text Available A mathematical model to predict oxygen, carbon dioxide, and water vapour exchanges in non-perforated and micro-perforated modified atmosphere packaging films has successfully been proposed. The transmission rate of gases was measured for films with thickness of 0.03 and 0.05 mm, perforation diameters of 0.5 and 2.0 mm, and temperatures of 0, 10 and 20 °C. Under most conditions, the increase in temperature and perforation diameter increased the transmission rate of oxygen, carbon dioxide, and water vapour, whereas the increase in film thickness decreased the transmission rate of the various gases. Validation of the proposed modified atmosphere packaging model was found to yield good prediction for gas concentrations and percentage losses in the mass of the produce after comparison with the experimental results of modified atmosphere packaging for tomato (Lycopersicon esculentum.

Modeling nitrogen plasmas produced by intense electron beams

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Angus, J. R.; Swanekamp, S. B.; Schumer, J. W.; Hinshelwood, D. D. [Plasma Physics Division, Naval Research Laboratory, Washington, DC 20375 (United States); Mosher, D.; Ottinger, P. F. [Independent contractors for NRL through Engility, Inc., Alexandria, Virginia 22314 (United States)

2016-05-15

A new gas–chemistry model is presented to treat the breakdown of a nitrogen gas with pressures on the order of 1 Torr from intense electron beams with current densities on the order of 10 kA/cm{sup 2} and pulse durations on the order of 100 ns. For these parameter regimes, the gas transitions from a weakly ionized molecular state to a strongly ionized atomic state on the time scale of the beam pulse. The model is coupled to a 0D–circuit model using the rigid–beam approximation that can be driven by specifying the time and spatial profiles of the beam pulse. Simulation results are in good agreement with experimental measurements of the line–integrated electron density from experiments done using the Gamble II generator at the Naval Research Laboratory. It is found that the species are mostly in the ground and metastable states during the atomic phase, but that ionization proceeds predominantly through thermal ionization of optically allowed states with excitation energies close to the ionization limit.

Thunderstorm Charge Structures Producing Negative Gigantic Jets

Science.gov (United States)

Boggs, L.; Liu, N.; Riousset, J. A.; Shi, F.; Rassoul, H.

2016-12-01

Here we present observational and modeling results that provide insight into thunderstorm charge structures that produce gigantic jet discharges. The observational results include data from four different thunderstorms producing 9 negative gigantic jets from 2010 to 2014. We used radar, very high frequency (VHF) and low frequency (LF) lightning data to analyze the storm characteristics, charge structures, and lightning activity when the gigantic jets emerged from the parent thunderstorms. A detailed investigation of the evolution of one of the charge structures by analyzing the VHF data is also presented. The newly found charge structure obtained from the observations was analyzed with fractal modeling and compared with previous fractal modeling studies [Krehbiel et al., Nat. Geosci., 1, 233-237, 2008; Riousset et al., JGR, 115, A00E10, 2010] of gigantic jet discharges. Our work finds that for normal polarity thunderstorms, gigantic jet charge structures feature a narrow upper positive charge region over a wide middle negative charge region. There also likely exists a `ring' of negative screening charge located around the perimeter of the upper positive charge. This is different from previously thought charge structures of the storms producing gigantic jets, which had a very wide upper positive charge region over a wide middle negative charge region, with a very small negative screening layer covering the cloud top. The newly found charge structure results in leader discharge trees in the fractal simulations that closely match the parent flashes of gigantic jets inside and outside the thundercloud. The previously used charge structures, while vital to the understanding of gigantic jet initiation and the role of charge imbalances inside the cloud, do not produce leader discharge trees that agree with observed gigantic jet discharges.Finally, the newly discovered gigantic jet charge structures are formed near the end of a convective pulse [Meyer et al., JGR, 118

Managing flowback and produced water from hydraulic fracturing under stochastic environment

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, X.; Sun, A. Y.; Duncan, I. J.; Vesselinov, V. V.

2017-12-01

A large volume of wastewater is being generated from hydraulic fracturing in shale gas plays, including flowback and produced water. The produced wastewater in terms of its quantity and quality has become one of the main environmental problems facing shale gas industries worldwide. Cost-effective planning and management of flowback and produced water is highly desirable. Careful choice of treatment, disposal, and reuse options can lower costs and reduce potential environmental impacts. To handle the recourse issue in decision-making, a two-stage stochastic management model is developed to provide optimal alternatives for fracturing wastewater management. The proposed model is capable of prompting corrective actions to allow decision makers to adjust the pre-defined management strategies. By using this two-stage model, potential penalties arising from decision infeasibility can be minimized. The applicability of the proposed model is demonstrated using a representative synthetic example, in which tradeoffs between economic and environmental goals are quantified. This approach can generate informed defensible decisions for shale gas wastewater management. In addition, probabilistic and non-probabilistic uncertainties are effectively addressed.

Assimilation of SAPHIR radiance: impact on hyperspectral radiances in 4D-VAR

Science.gov (United States)

Indira Rani, S.; Doherty, Amy; Atkinson, Nigel; Bell, William; Newman, Stuart; Renshaw, Richard; George, John P.; Rajagopal, E. N.

2016-04-01

Assimilation of a new observation dataset in an NWP system may affect the quality of an existing observation data set against the model background (short forecast), which in-turn influence the use of an existing observation in the NWP system. Effect of the use of one data set on the use of another data set can be quantified as positive, negative or neutral. Impact of the addition of new dataset is defined as positive if the number of assimilated observations of an existing type of observation increases, and bias and standard deviation decreases compared to the control (without the new dataset) experiment. Recently a new dataset, Megha Tropiques SAPHIR radiances, which provides atmospheric humidity information, is added in the Unified Model 4D-VAR assimilation system. In this paper we discuss the impact of SAPHIR on the assimilation of hyper-spectral radiances like AIRS, IASI and CrIS. Though SAPHIR is a Microwave instrument, its impact can be clearly seen in the use of hyper-spectral radiances in the 4D-VAR data assimilation systems in addition to other Microwave and InfraRed observation. SAPHIR assimilation decreased the standard deviation of the spectral channels of wave number from 650 -1600 cm-1 in all the three hyperspectral radiances. Similar impact on the hyperspectral radiances can be seen due to the assimilation of other Microwave radiances like from AMSR2 and SSMIS Imager.

A radiation dependent ionization model for laser produced plasmas

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Busquet, M.

1996-01-01

RADIOM is a non-Local Thermodynamical Equilibrium Atomic Physics model, accounting for x-ray reabsorption. We present shortly the model, its introduction in hydrodynamic codes and a few application. copyright 1996 American Institute of Physics

Numerical modeling of combustion of low-calorific-producer-gas from Mangium wood within a late mixing porous burner (LMPB

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kanokkarn Jirakulsomchok

2017-08-01

Full Text Available This article presents a numerical study of combustion of low-calorific-producer-gas from Mangium wood within a late mixing porous burner (LMPB. The LMPB consists of four main components, i.e., the fuel preheating porous (FP, the porous combustor (PC, the air jacket, and the mixing chamber. Interestingly, this LMPB was able to highly preheated and it still maintained high safety in operation. A single-step global reaction, steady state approach and a one-dimensional model were considered. The necessary information for burner characteristics, i.e., temperature profile, flame location and maximum temperature were also presented. The results indicated that stable combustion of a low-calorific-producer-gas within LMPB was possible achieved. Increasing equivalence ratio resulted in increasing in the flame temperature. Meanwhile, increasing the firing rate caused slightly decrease in flame temperature. The flame moved to downstream zone of the PC when the firing rate increased. Finally, it was found that the equivalence ratio did not affect the flame location.

Option contracts in fresh produce supply chain with circulation loss

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chong Wang

2013-03-01

Full Text Available Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to investigate management decisions via option contracts in a two-stage supply chain in which a fresh produce supplier sells to a retailer, considering the circulation loss of the fresh produce. Design/methodology/approach: Authors propose a Stackelberg model to analyze the supply chain members’ decisions in the decentralized supply chain compared with the integrated one under the newsvendor framework. Findings: The results illustrate that there exists a unique optimal option order quantity for the retailer and a unique optimal option order price for the supplier giving certain conditions; furthermore, option contracts cannot coordinate the fresh produce supply chain when the retailer only orders options. Originality/value: Agricultural products especially fresh produce’s characteristics such as circulation loss and high risk are considered. Option contracts and game theory are combined to manage the fresh produce supply chain’s risk. The proposed tool and models are hoped to shed light to the future works in the field of supply chain risk management.

76 FR 9173 - Proposal To Reissue and Modify Nationwide Permits

Science.gov (United States)

2011-02-16

... regional conditions for the NWPs. Effective regional conditions protect local aquatic ecosystems and helps... second sentence the phrase ``[w]here maintenance dredging is proposed'' because paragraph (b) of the NWP...

Effects of an assimilation of radar and satellite data on a very-short range forecast of heavy convective rainfalls

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Sokol, Zbyněk

2009-01-01

Roč. 93, 1-3 (2009), s. 188-206 ISSN 0169-8095. [European Conference on Severe Storms /4./. Miramare -Trieste, 10.09.2007-14.09.2007] R&D Projects: GA ČR GA205/07/0905; GA MŠk OC 112; GA MŠk 1P05ME748 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z30420517 Keywords : Precipitation forecast * NWP model * Assimilation of radar and satellite data * Local convective precipitation Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 1.811, year: 2009 http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/01698095

Stable, fertile, high polyhydroxyalkanoate producing plants and methods of producing them

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bohmert-Tatarev, Karen; McAvoy, Susan; Peoples, Oliver P.; Snell, Kristi D.

2015-08-04

Transgenic plants that produce high levels of polyhydroxybutyrate and methods of producing them are provided. In a preferred embodiment the transgenic plants are produced using plastid transformation technologies and utilize genes which are codon optimized. Stably transformed plants able to produce greater than 10% dwt PHS in tissues are also provided.

Short-term strategies for Dutch wind power producers to reduce imbalance costs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chaves-Ávila, José Pablo; Hakvoort, Rudi A.; Ramos, Andrés

2013-01-01

The paper assesses bidding strategies for a wind power producer in the Netherlands. To this end, a three-stage stochastic optimization framework is used, maximizing wind power producer's profit using the day-ahead and cross-border intraday market, taking into account available interconnection capacity. Results show that the wind power producer can increase its profits by trading on the intraday market and – under certain imbalance prices – by intentionally creating imbalances. It has been considered uncertainties about prices, power forecast and interconnection capacity at the day-ahead and intraday timeframes. - Highlights: ► A cross-border bidding strategy model for wind power producers has been developed. ► The model was applied to a real case study of a Dutch offshore wind power producer. ► Under certain imbalance prices, it is not profitable to deliver all possible power. ► Intraday markets give the possibility to reduce imbalance costs. ► Integration of intraday markets will increase liquidity.

Experimental modeling of aerosols produced by microorganisms in working area air as risk factor exerting hazardous impacts on health of workers employed at biotechnological production

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N.V. Dudchik

2017-09-01

Full Text Available Scientific foundation and practices in the sphere of hygienic and ecological standardization concerning biological factors of the environment have a number of peculiarities and are methodically less developed than chemical factors standardization. Efficient industrial control over maximum permissible concentrations of standardized microorganisms-producers in working area air is based on validated instrumental techniques of quantitative assessment. Our goal was to create experimental models for microorganisms-producers' aerosols of a multi-component microbe specimen in working area air as a risk factor causing impacts on health of workers employed at biotechnological production; another task was to work out a procedure for measuring Pseudomonas aurantiaca B-162/255.17concentration and cells and spores of Bacillus sp. BB58-3 strain in working area air. We gave grounds for a technology aimed at quantitative determination of microorganisms-producers in working area air in a modeling experiment; it was based on conventional stages and tech-niques accepted in microbiological practices, namely air samples taking via aspiration technique allowing for a volume taken; cultivation under conditions which are optimal for examined microorganisms-producers in a nutrient medium with reduced composition; calculation of evolved colonies with specific morphological features; morphologic identification of microorganisms and colonies; calculation of microorganisms' quantity on dishes with recalculation per 1 m3 of air. Bas-ing on the detected regular concentration dependences of microbe contamination dynamics in air we worked out a proce-dure for quantitative determination of microorganisms-producers; we also performed metrological estimate of opera-tional properties for assessing microorganisms-producers of a multi-component microbe specimen as a risk factor caus-ing hazardous impacts on health of workers employed at biotechnological production. We validated our

Transverse-momentum distribution of produced particles in ultrarelativistic nucleus-nucleus collisions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ban-Hao, S.; Wong, C.

1985-01-01

In order to discern coherent or collective processes from incoherent processes in nucleus-nucleus reactions at high energies, we study the transverse-momentum distribution of the produced particles with an incoherent-multiple-collision model. In this model, the projectile nucleon makes successive inelastic collisions with nucleons in the target nucleus, the probability of such collisions being given by the thickness function and the nucleon-nucleon inelastic cross section. It is assumed that each baryon-baryon collision produces particles and degrades momenta just as a baryon-baryon collision in free space, and that there are no secondary collisions between the produced particles and the nucleons. We found that the average transverse momentum and the charged-multiplicity data at Fermilab and CERN ISR energies can be well explained by such a model. However, the average transverse momentum for some events observed by the Japanese-American cooperative emulsion experiment (JACEE) associated with large energy density in the central rapidity region differ markedly from the model results. Such a deviation indicates the presence of coherent or collective effects for these collisions and may indicate the possibility of a formation of quark-gluon plasma

The Experimental Regional Ensemble Forecast System (ExREF): Its Use in NWS Forecast Operations and Preliminary Verification

Science.gov (United States)

Reynolds, David; Rasch, William; Kozlowski, Daniel; Burks, Jason; Zavodsky, Bradley; Bernardet, Ligia; Jankov, Isidora; Albers, Steve

2014-01-01

The Experimental Regional Ensemble Forecast (ExREF) system is a tool for the development and testing of new Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) methodologies. ExREF is run in near-realtime by the Global Systems Division (GSD) of the NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL) and its products are made available through a website, an ftp site, and via the Unidata Local Data Manager (LDM). The ExREF domain covers most of North America and has 9-km horizontal grid spacing. The ensemble has eight members, all employing WRF-ARW. The ensemble uses a variety of initial conditions from LAPS and the Global Forecasting System (GFS) and multiple boundary conditions from the GFS ensemble. Additionally, a diversity of physical parameterizations is used to increase ensemble spread and to account for the uncertainty in forecasting extreme precipitation events. ExREF has been a component of the Hydrometeorology Testbed (HMT) NWP suite in the 2012-2013 and 2013-2014 winters. A smaller domain covering just the West Coast was created to minimize band-width consumption for the NWS. This smaller domain has and is being distributed to the National Weather Service (NWS) Weather Forecast Office and California Nevada River Forecast Center in Sacramento, California, where it is ingested into the Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS I and II) to provide guidance on the forecasting of extreme precipitation events. This paper will review the cooperative effort employed by NOAA ESRL, NASA SPoRT (Short-term Prediction Research and Transition Center), and the NWS to facilitate the ingest and display of ExREF data utilizing the AWIPS I and II D2D and GFE (Graphical Software Editor) software. Within GFE is a very useful verification software package called BoiVer that allows the NWS to utilize the River Forecast Center's 4 km gridded QPE to compare with all operational NWP models 6-hr QPF along with the ExREF mean 6-hr QPF so the forecasters can build confidence in the use of the

Nowcasting of hailstorms simulated by the NWP model COSMO for the area of the Czech Republic

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Sokol, Zbyněk; Bližňák, Vojtěch; Zacharov, Petr, jr.; Skripniková, Kateřina

2016-01-01

Roč. 171, 1 May (2016), s. 66-76 ISSN 0169-8095 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA13-34856S; GA ČR(CZ) GPP209/12/P701 Institutional support: RVO:68378289 Keywords : hail * numerical weather prediction * COSMO * nowcasting Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 3.778, year: 2016 http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169809515003968

Long-term observations minus background monitoring of ground-based brightness temperatures from a microwave radiometer network

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

F. De Angelis

2017-10-01

Full Text Available Ground-based microwave radiometers (MWRs offer the capability to provide continuous, high-temporal-resolution observations of the atmospheric thermodynamic state in the planetary boundary layer (PBL with low maintenance. This makes MWR an ideal instrument to supplement radiosonde and satellite observations when initializing numerical weather prediction (NWP models through data assimilation. State-of-the-art data assimilation systems (e.g. variational schemes require an accurate representation of the differences between model (background and observations, which are then weighted by their respective errors to provide the best analysis of the true atmospheric state. In this perspective, one source of information is contained in the statistics of the differences between observations and their background counterparts (O–B. Monitoring of O–B statistics is crucial to detect and remove systematic errors coming from the measurements, the observation operator, and/or the NWP model. This work illustrates a 1-year O–B analysis for MWR observations in clear-sky conditions for an European-wide network of six MWRs. Observations include MWR brightness temperatures (TB measured by the two most common types of MWR instruments. Background profiles are extracted from the French convective-scale model AROME-France before being converted into TB. The observation operator used to map atmospheric profiles into TB is the fast radiative transfer model RTTOV-gb. It is shown that O–B monitoring can effectively detect instrument malfunctions. O–B statistics (bias, standard deviation, and root mean square for water vapour channels (22.24–30.0 GHz are quite consistent for all the instrumental sites, decreasing from the 22.24 GHz line centre ( ∼  2–2.5 K towards the high-frequency wing ( ∼  0.8–1.3 K. Statistics for zenith and lower-elevation observations show a similar trend, though values increase with increasing air mass. O�

Studies on hepatic lipidosis and coinciding health and fertility problems of high-producing dairy cows using the "Utrecht fatty liver model of dairy cows". A review.

Science.gov (United States)

Geelen, M J H; Wensing, T

2006-09-01

Fatty liver or hepatic lipidosis is a major metabolic disorder of high-producing dairy cows that occurs rather frequently in early lactation and is associated with decreased health, production and fertility. A background section of the review explores reasons why high-producing dairy cows are prone to develop fatty liver post partum. Hepatic lipidosis and coinciding health and fertility problems seriously endanger profitability and longevity of the dairy cow. Results from a great number of earlier epidemiological and clinical studies made it clear that a different approach was needed for elucidation of pathogenesis and etiology of this complex of health problems. There was a need for an adequate animal model in which hepatic lipidosis and production, health and fertility problems could be provoked under controlled conditions. It was hypothesized that overconditioning ante partum and feed restriction post partum might induce lipolysis in adipose tissue and triacylglycerol accumulation in the liver following calving. This consideration formed the basis for the experiments, which resulted in the "Utrecht fatty liver model of dairy cows". In this model, post partum triacylglycerol-lipidosis as well as the whole complex of health and fertility problems are induced under well-controlled conditions. The experimental protocol based on this hypothesis produced in all cases (10 feeding trials with over 150 dairy cattle) the intended result, i.e. all experimental cows developed post partum higher hepatic triacylglycerol concentrations than did control cows. The model was evaluated in biochemical, clinical pathology, immunological, clinical and fertility terms. It turned out that in this model, post partum triacylglycerol-lipidosis as well as the whole complex of health and fertility problems were induced under well-controlled conditions.

Introducing uncertainty of radar-rainfall estimates to the verification of mesoscale model precipitation forecasts

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. P. Mittermaier

2008-05-01

Full Text Available A simple measure of the uncertainty associated with using radar-derived rainfall estimates as "truth" has been introduced to the Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP verification process to assess the effect on forecast skill and errors. Deterministic precipitation forecasts from the mesoscale version of the UK Met Office Unified Model for a two-day high-impact event and for a month were verified at the daily and six-hourly time scale using a spatially-based intensity-scale method and various traditional skill scores such as the Equitable Threat Score (ETS and log-odds ratio. Radar-rainfall accumulations from the UK Nimrod radar-composite were used.

The results show that the inclusion of uncertainty has some effect, shifting the forecast errors and skill. The study also allowed for the comparison of results from the intensity-scale method and traditional skill scores. It showed that the two methods complement each other, one detailing the scale and rainfall accumulation thresholds where the errors occur, the other showing how skillful the forecast is. It was also found that for the six-hourly forecasts the error distributions remain similar with forecast lead time but skill decreases. This highlights the difference between forecast error and forecast skill, and that they are not necessarily the same.

Isolation of biosurfactant producers, optimization and properties of biosurfactant produced by Acinetobacter sp. from petroleum-contaminated soil.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, J; Huang, P T; Zhang, K Y; Ding, F R

2012-04-01

To screen and identify biosurfactant producers from petroleum-contaminated soil; to use response surface methodology (RSM) for medium optimization to enhance biosurfactant production; and to study the properties of the newly obtained biosurfactant towards pH, temperature and salinity. We successfully isolated three biosurfactant producers from petroleum-contaminated soil and identified them through 16S rRNA sequence analysis, which exhibit the highest similarities to Acinetobacter beijerinckii (100%), Kocuria marina (99%) and Kineococcus marinus (99%), respectively. A quadratic response model was constructed through RSM designs, leading to a 57·5% increase of the growth-associated biosurfactant production by Acinetobacter sp. YC-X 2 with an optimized medium: beef extract 3·12 g l(-1) ; peptone 20·87 g l(-1) ; NaCl 1·04 g l(-1); and n-hexadecane 1·86 g l(-1). Biosurfactant produced by Acinetobacter sp. YC-X 2 retained its properties during exposure to a wide range of pH values (5-11), high temperatures (up to 121°C) and high salinities [up to 18% (w/v) Na(+) and Ca(2+) ], which was more sensitive to Ca(2+) than Na(+). Two novel biosurfactant producers were isolated from petroleum-contaminated soil. Biosurfactant from Acinetobacter sp. YC-X 2 has good properties to a wide range of pH, high temperature and high salinity, and its production was optimized successfully through RSM. The fact, an increasing demand of high-quality surfactants and the lack of cost-competitive bioprocesses of biosurfactants for commercial utilization, motivates researchers to develop cost-effective strategies for biosurfactant production through isolating new biosurfactant producers with special surface-active properties and optimizing their cultural conditions. Two novel biosurfactant producers in this study will widen our knowledge about this kind of micro-organism. This work is the first application of RSM designs for cultural optimization of biosurfactant produced by Acinetobacter

Search for the standard model Higgs boson produced in association with a top-quark pair in pp collisions at the LHC

CERN Document Server

Chatrchyan, Serguei; Sirunyan, Albert M; Tumasyan, Armen; Adam, Wolfgang; Bergauer, Thomas; Dragicevic, Marko; Erö, Janos; Fabjan, Christian; Friedl, Markus; Fruehwirth, Rudolf; Ghete, Vasile Mihai; Hörmann, Natascha; Hrubec, Josef; Jeitler, Manfred; Kiesenhofer, Wolfgang; Knünz, Valentin; Krammer, Manfred; Krätschmer, Ilse; Liko, Dietrich; Mikulec, Ivan; Rabady, Dinyar; Rahbaran, Babak; Rohringer, Christine; Rohringer, Herbert; Schöfbeck, Robert; Strauss, Josef; Taurok, Anton; Treberer-Treberspurg, Wolfgang; Waltenberger, Wolfgang; Wulz, Claudia-Elisabeth; Mossolov, Vladimir; Shumeiko, Nikolai; Suarez Gonzalez, Juan; Alderweireldt, Sara; Bansal, Monika; Bansal, Sunil; Cornelis, Tom; De Wolf, Eddi A; Janssen, Xavier; Knutsson, Albert; Luyckx, Sten; Mucibello, Luca; Ochesanu, Silvia; Roland, Benoit; Rougny, Romain; Van Haevermaet, Hans; Van Mechelen, Pierre; Van Remortel, Nick; Van Spilbeeck, Alex; Blekman, Freya; Blyweert, Stijn; D'Hondt, Jorgen; Gonzalez Suarez, Rebeca; Kalogeropoulos, Alexis; Keaveney, James; Maes, Michael; Olbrechts, Annik; Tavernier, Stefaan; Van Doninck, Walter; Van Mulders, Petra; Van Onsem, Gerrit Patrick; Villella, Ilaria; Clerbaux, Barbara; De Lentdecker, Gilles; Dero, Vincent; Gay, Arnaud; Hreus, Tomas; Léonard, Alexandre; Marage, Pierre Edouard; Mohammadi, Abdollah; Reis, Thomas; Thomas, Laurent; Vander Velde, Catherine; Vanlaer, Pascal; Wang, Jian; Adler, Volker; Beernaert, Kelly; Benucci, Leonardo; Cimmino, Anna; Costantini, Silvia; Garcia, Guillaume; Grunewald, Martin; Klein, Benjamin; Lellouch, Jérémie; Marinov, Andrey; Mccartin, Joseph; Ocampo Rios, Alberto Andres; Ryckbosch, Dirk; Sigamani, Michael; Strobbe, Nadja; Thyssen, Filip; Tytgat, Michael; Walsh, Sinead; Yazgan, Efe; Zaganidis, Nicolas; Basegmez, Suzan; Bruno, Giacomo; Castello, Roberto; Ceard, Ludivine; Delaere, Christophe; Du Pree, Tristan; Favart, Denis; Forthomme, Laurent; Giammanco, Andrea; Hollar, Jonathan; Lemaitre, Vincent; Liao, Junhui; Militaru, Otilia; Nuttens, Claude; Pagano, Davide; Pin, Arnaud; Piotrzkowski, Krzysztof; Popov, Andrey; Selvaggi, Michele; Vizan Garcia, Jesus Manuel; Beliy, Nikita; Caebergs, Thierry; Daubie, Evelyne; Hammad, Gregory Habib; Alves, Gilvan; Correa Martins Junior, Marcos; Martins, Thiago; Pol, Maria Elena; Henrique Gomes E Souza, Moacyr; Aldá Júnior, Walter Luiz; Carvalho, Wagner; Chinellato, Jose; Custódio, Analu; Melo Da Costa, Eliza; De Jesus Damiao, Dilson; De Oliveira Martins, Carley; Fonseca De Souza, Sandro; Malbouisson, Helena; Malek, Magdalena; Matos Figueiredo, Diego; Mundim, Luiz; Nogima, Helio; Prado Da Silva, Wanda Lucia; Santoro, Alberto; Soares Jorge, Luana; Sznajder, Andre; Tonelli Manganote, Edmilson José; Vilela Pereira, Antonio; Souza Dos Anjos, Tiago; Bernardes, Cesar Augusto; De Almeida Dias, Flavia; Tomei, Thiago; De Moraes Gregores, Eduardo; Lagana, Caio; Da Cunha Marinho, Franciole; Mercadante, Pedro G; Novaes, Sergio F; Padula, Sandra; Genchev, Vladimir; Iaydjiev, Plamen; Piperov, Stefan; Rodozov, Mircho; Stoykova, Stefka; Sultanov, Georgi; Tcholakov, Vanio; Trayanov, Rumen; Vutova, Mariana; Dimitrov, Anton; Hadjiiska, Roumyana; Kozhuharov, Venelin; Litov, Leander; Pavlov, Borislav; Petkov, Peicho; Bian, Jian-Guo; Chen, Guo-Ming; Chen, He-Sheng; Jiang, Chun-Hua; Liang, Dong; Liang, Song; Meng, Xiangwei; Tao, Junquan; Wang, Jian; Wang, Xianyou; Wang, Zheng; Xiao, Hong; Xu, Ming; Asawatangtrakuldee, Chayanit; Ban, Yong; Guo, Yifei; Li, Qiang; Li, Wenbo; Liu, Shuai; Mao, Yajun; Qian, Si-Jin; Wang, Dayong; Zhang, Linlin; Zou, Wei; Avila, Carlos; Carrillo Montoya, Camilo Andres; Gomez, Juan Pablo; Gomez Moreno, Bernardo; Sanabria, Juan Carlos; Godinovic, Nikola; Lelas, Damir; Plestina, Roko; Polic, Dunja; Puljak, Ivica; Antunovic, Zeljko; Kovac, Marko; Brigljevic, Vuko; Duric, Senka; Kadija, Kreso; Luetic, Jelena; Mekterovic, Darko; Morovic, Srecko; Tikvica, Lucija; Attikis, Alexandros; Mavromanolakis, Georgios; Mousa, Jehad; Nicolaou, Charalambos; Ptochos, Fotios; Razis, Panos A; Finger, Miroslav; Finger Jr, Michael; Assran, Yasser; Ellithi Kamel, Ali; Kuotb Awad, Alaa Metwaly; Mahmoud, Mohammed; Radi, Amr; Kadastik, Mario; Müntel, Mait; Murumaa, Marion; Raidal, Martti; Rebane, Liis; Tiko, Andres; Eerola, Paula; Fedi, Giacomo; Voutilainen, Mikko; Härkönen, Jaakko; Karimäki, Veikko; Kinnunen, Ritva; Kortelainen, Matti J; Lampén, Tapio; Lassila-Perini, Kati; Lehti, Sami; Lindén, Tomas; Luukka, Panja-Riina; Mäenpää, Teppo; Peltola, Timo; Tuominen, Eija; Tuominiemi, Jorma; Tuovinen, Esa; Wendland, Lauri; Korpela, Arja; Tuuva, Tuure; Besancon, Marc; Choudhury, Somnath; Couderc, Fabrice; Dejardin, Marc; Denegri, Daniel; Fabbro, Bernard; Faure, Jean-Louis; Ferri, Federico; Ganjour, Serguei; Givernaud, Alain; Gras, Philippe; Hamel de Monchenault, Gautier; Jarry, Patrick; Locci, Elizabeth; Malcles, Julie; Millischer, Laurent; Nayak, Aruna; Rander, John; Rosowsky, André; Titov, Maksym; Baffioni, Stephanie; Beaudette, Florian; Benhabib, Lamia; Bianchini, Lorenzo; Bluj, Michal; Busson, Philippe; Charlot, Claude; Daci, Nadir; Dahms, Torsten; Dalchenko, Mykhailo; Dobrzynski, Ludwik; Florent, Alice; Granier de Cassagnac, Raphael; Haguenauer, Maurice; Miné, Philippe; Mironov, Camelia; Naranjo, Ivo Nicolas; Nguyen, Matthew; Ochando, Christophe; Paganini, Pascal; Sabes, David; Salerno, Roberto; Sirois, Yves; Veelken, Christian; Zabi, Alexandre; Agram, Jean-Laurent; Andrea, Jeremy; Bloch, Daniel; Bodin, David; Brom, Jean-Marie; Chabert, Eric Christian; Collard, Caroline; Conte, Eric; Drouhin, Frédéric; Fontaine, Jean-Charles; Gelé, Denis; Goerlach, Ulrich; Goetzmann, Christophe; Juillot, Pierre; Le Bihan, Anne-Catherine; Van Hove, Pierre; Beauceron, Stephanie; Beaupere, Nicolas; Bondu, Olivier; Boudoul, Gaelle; Brochet, Sébastien; Chasserat, Julien; Chierici, Roberto; Contardo, Didier; Depasse, Pierre; El Mamouni, Houmani; Fay, Jean; Gascon, Susan; Gouzevitch, Maxime; Ille, Bernard; Kurca, Tibor; Lethuillier, Morgan; Mirabito, Laurent; Perries, Stephane; Sgandurra, Louis; Sordini, Viola; Tschudi, Yohann; Vander Donckt, Muriel; Verdier, Patrice; Viret, Sébastien; Tsamalaidze, Zviad; Autermann, Christian; Beranek, Sarah; Calpas, Betty; Edelhoff, Matthias; Feld, Lutz; Heracleous, Natalie; Hindrichs, Otto; Jussen, Ruediger; Klein, Katja; Merz, Jennifer; Ostapchuk, Andrey; Perieanu, Adrian; Raupach, Frank; Sammet, Jan; Schael, Stefan; Sprenger, Daniel; Weber, Hendrik; Wittmer, Bruno; Zhukov, Valery; Ata, Metin; Caudron, Julien; Dietz-Laursonn, Erik; Duchardt, Deborah; Erdmann, Martin; Fischer, Robert; Güth, Andreas; Hebbeker, Thomas; Heidemann, Carsten; Hoepfner, Kerstin; Klingebiel, Dennis; Kreuzer, Peter; Merschmeyer, Markus; Meyer, Arnd; Olschewski, Mark; Padeken, Klaas; Papacz, Paul; Pieta, Holger; Reithler, Hans; Schmitz, Stefan Antonius; Sonnenschein, Lars; Steggemann, Jan; Teyssier, Daniel; Thüer, Sebastian; Weber, Martin; Bontenackels, Michael; Cherepanov, Vladimir; Erdogan, Yusuf; Flügge, Günter; Geenen, Heiko; Geisler, Matthias; Haj Ahmad, Wael; Hoehle, Felix; Kargoll, Bastian; Kress, Thomas; Kuessel, Yvonne; Lingemann, Joschka; Nowack, Andreas; Nugent, Ian Michael; Perchalla, Lars; Pooth, Oliver; Stahl, Achim; Aldaya Martin, Maria; Asin, Ivan; Bartosik, Nazar; Behr, Joerg; Behrenhoff, Wolf; Behrens, Ulf; Bergholz, Matthias; Bethani, Agni; Borras, Kerstin; Burgmeier, Armin; Cakir, Altan; Calligaris, Luigi; Campbell, Alan; Costanza, Francesco; Dammann, Dirk; Diez Pardos, Carmen; Dorland, Tyler; Eckerlin, Guenter; Eckstein, Doris; Flucke, Gero; Geiser, Achim; Glushkov, Ivan; Gunnellini, Paolo; Habib, Shiraz; Hauk, Johannes; Hellwig, Gregor; Jung, Hannes; Kasemann, Matthias; Katsas, Panagiotis; Kleinwort, Claus; Kluge, Hannelies; Krämer, Mira; Krücker, Dirk; Kuznetsova, Ekaterina; Lange, Wolfgang; Leonard, Jessica; Lohmann, Wolfgang; Lutz, Benjamin; Mankel, Rainer; Marfin, Ihar; Marienfeld, Markus; Melzer-Pellmann, Isabell-Alissandra; Meyer, Andreas Bernhard; Mnich, Joachim; Mussgiller, Andreas; Naumann-Emme, Sebastian; Novgorodova, Olga; Nowak, Friederike; Olzem, Jan; Perrey, Hanno; Petrukhin, Alexey; Pitzl, Daniel; Raspereza, Alexei; Ribeiro Cipriano, Pedro M; Riedl, Caroline; Ron, Elias; Rosin, Michele; Salfeld-Nebgen, Jakob; Schmidt, Ringo; Schoerner-Sadenius, Thomas; Sen, Niladri; Stein, Matthias; Walsh, Roberval; Wissing, Christoph; Blobel, Volker; Enderle, Holger; Erfle, Joachim; Gebbert, Ulla; Görner, Martin; Gosselink, Martijn; Haller, Johannes; Höing, Rebekka Sophie; Kaschube, Kolja; Kaussen, Gordon; Kirschenmann, Henning; Klanner, Robert; Lange, Jörn; Peiffer, Thomas; Pietsch, Niklas; Rathjens, Denis; Sander, Christian; Schettler, Hannes; Schleper, Peter; Schlieckau, Eike; Schmidt, Alexander; Schum, Torben; Seidel, Markus; Sibille, Jennifer; Sola, Valentina; Stadie, Hartmut; Steinbrück, Georg; Thomsen, Jan; Vanelderen, Lukas; Barth, Christian; Baus, Colin; Berger, Joram; Böser, Christian; Chwalek, Thorsten; De Boer, Wim; Descroix, Alexis; Dierlamm, Alexander; Feindt, Michael; Guthoff, Moritz; Hackstein, Christoph; Hartmann, Frank; Hauth, Thomas; Heinrich, Michael; Held, Hauke; Hoffmann, Karl-Heinz; Husemann, Ulrich; Katkov, Igor; Komaragiri, Jyothsna Rani; Kornmayer, Andreas; Lobelle Pardo, Patricia; Martschei, Daniel; Mueller, Steffen; Müller, Thomas; Niegel, Martin; Nürnberg, Andreas; Oberst, Oliver; Ott, Jochen; Quast, Gunter; Rabbertz, Klaus; Ratnikov, Fedor; Ratnikova, Natalia; Röcker, Steffen; Schilling, Frank-Peter; Schott, Gregory; Simonis, Hans-Jürgen; Stober, Fred-Markus Helmut; Troendle, Daniel; Ulrich, Ralf; Wagner-Kuhr, Jeannine; Wayand, Stefan; Weiler, Thomas; Zeise, Manuel; Anagnostou, Georgios; Daskalakis, Georgios; Geralis, Theodoros; Kesisoglou, Stilianos; Kyriakis, Aristotelis; Loukas, Demetrios; Markou, Athanasios; Markou, Christos; Ntomari, Eleni; Gouskos, Loukas; Mertzimekis, Theodoros; Panagiotou, Apostolos; Saoulidou, Niki; Stiliaris, Efstathios; Aslanoglou, Xenofon; Evangelou, Ioannis; Flouris, Giannis; Foudas, Costas; Kokkas, Panagiotis; Manthos, Nikolaos; Papadopoulos, Ioannis; Paradas, Evangelos; Bencze, Gyorgy; Hajdu, Csaba; Hidas, Pàl; Horvath, Dezso; Radics, Balint; Sikler, Ferenc; Veszpremi, Viktor; Vesztergombi, Gyorgy; Zsigmond, Anna Julia; Beni, Noemi; Czellar, Sandor; Molnar, Jozsef; Palinkas, Jozsef; Szillasi, Zoltan; Karancsi, János; Raics, Peter; Trocsanyi, Zoltan Laszlo; Ujvari, Balazs; Beri, Suman Bala; Bhatnagar, Vipin; Dhingra, Nitish; Gupta, Ruchi; Kaur, Manjit; Mehta, Manuk Zubin; Mittal, Monika; Nishu, Nishu; Saini, Lovedeep Kaur; Sharma, Archana; Singh, Jasbir; Kumar, Ashok; Kumar, Arun; Ahuja, Sudha; Bhardwaj, Ashutosh; Choudhary, Brajesh C; Malhotra, Shivali; Naimuddin, Md; Ranjan, Kirti; Saxena, Pooja; Sharma, Varun; Shivpuri, Ram Krishen; Banerjee, Sunanda; Bhattacharya, Satyaki; Chatterjee, Kalyanmoy; Dutta, Suchandra; Gomber, Bhawna; Jain, Sandhya; Jain, Shilpi; Khurana, Raman; Modak, Atanu; Mukherjee, Swagata; Roy, Debarati; Sarkar, Subir; Sharan, Manoj; Abdulsalam, Abdulla; Dutta, Dipanwita; Kailas, Swaminathan; Kumar, Vineet; Mohanty, Ajit Kumar; Pant, Lalit Mohan; Shukla, Prashant; Topkar, Anita; Aziz, Tariq; Chatterjee, Rajdeep Mohan; Ganguly, Sanmay; Guchait, Monoranjan; Gurtu, Atul; Maity, Manas; Majumder, Gobinda; Mazumdar, Kajari; Mohanty, Gagan Bihari; Parida, Bibhuti; Sudhakar, Katta; Wickramage, Nadeesha; Banerjee, Sudeshna; Dugad, Shashikant; Arfaei, Hessamaddin; Bakhshiansohi, Hamed; Etesami, Seyed Mohsen; Fahim, Ali; Hesari, Hoda; Jafari, Abideh; Khakzad, Mohsen; Mohammadi Najafabadi, Mojtaba; Paktinat Mehdiabadi, Saeid; Safarzadeh, Batool; Zeinali, Maryam; Abbrescia, Marcello; Barbone, Lucia; Calabria, Cesare; Chhibra, Simranjit Singh; Colaleo, Anna; Creanza, Donato; De Filippis, Nicola; De Palma, Mauro; Fiore, Luigi; Iaselli, Giuseppe; Maggi, Giorgio; Maggi, Marcello; Marangelli, Bartolomeo; My, Salvatore; Nuzzo, Salvatore; Pacifico, Nicola; Pompili, Alexis; Pugliese, Gabriella; Selvaggi, Giovanna; Silvestris, Lucia; Singh, Gurpreet; Venditti, Rosamaria; Verwilligen, Piet; Zito, Giuseppe; Abbiendi, Giovanni; Benvenuti, Alberto; Bonacorsi, Daniele; Braibant-Giacomelli, Sylvie; Brigliadori, Luca; Campanini, Renato; Capiluppi, Paolo; Castro, Andrea; Cavallo, Francesca Romana; Cuffiani, Marco; Dallavalle, Gaetano-Marco; Fabbri, Fabrizio; Fanfani, Alessandra; Fasanella, Daniele; Giacomelli, Paolo; Grandi, Claudio; Guiducci, Luigi; Marcellini, Stefano; Masetti, Gianni; Meneghelli, Marco; Montanari, Alessandro; Navarria, Francesco; Odorici, Fabrizio; Perrotta, Andrea; Primavera, Federica; Rossi, Antonio; Rovelli, Tiziano; Siroli, Gian Piero; Tosi, Nicolò; Travaglini, Riccardo; Albergo, Sebastiano; Chiorboli, Massimiliano; Costa, Salvatore; Potenza, Renato; Tricomi, Alessia; Tuve, Cristina; Barbagli, Giuseppe; Ciulli, Vitaliano; Civinini, Carlo; D'Alessandro, Raffaello; Focardi, Ettore; Frosali, Simone; Gallo, Elisabetta; Gonzi, Sandro; Lenzi, Piergiulio; Meschini, Marco; Paoletti, Simone; Sguazzoni, Giacomo; Tropiano, Antonio; Benussi, Luigi; Bianco, Stefano; Colafranceschi, Stefano; Fabbri, Franco; Piccolo, Davide; Fabbricatore, Pasquale; Musenich, Riccardo; Tosi, Silvano; Benaglia, Andrea; De Guio, Federico; Di Matteo, Leonardo; Fiorendi, Sara; Gennai, Simone; Ghezzi, Alessio; Lucchini, Marco Toliman; Malvezzi, Sandra; Manzoni, Riccardo Andrea; Martelli, Arabella; Massironi, Andrea; Menasce, Dario; Moroni, Luigi; Paganoni, Marco; Pedrini, Daniele; Ragazzi, Stefano; Redaelli, Nicola; Tabarelli de Fatis, Tommaso; Buontempo, Salvatore; Cavallo, Nicola; De Cosa, Annapaola; Dogangun, Oktay; Fabozzi, Francesco; Iorio, Alberto Orso Maria; Lista, Luca; Meola, Sabino; Merola, Mario; Paolucci, Pierluigi; Azzi, Patrizia; Bacchetta, Nicola; Biasotto, Massimo; Bisello, Dario; Branca, Antonio; Carlin, Roberto; Checchia, Paolo; Dorigo, Tommaso; Galanti, Mario; Gasparini, Fabrizio; Gasparini, Ugo; Giubilato, Piero; Gozzelino, Andrea; Kanishchev, Konstantin; Lacaprara, Stefano; Lazzizzera, Ignazio; Margoni, Martino; Meneguzzo, Anna Teresa; Passaseo, Marina; Pazzini, Jacopo; Pozzobon, Nicola; Ronchese, Paolo; Simonetto, Franco; Torassa, Ezio; Tosi, Mia; Vanini, Sara; Ventura, Sandro; Zotto, Pierluigi; Zucchetta, Alberto; Zumerle, Gianni; Gabusi, Michele; Ratti, Sergio P; Riccardi, Cristina; Vitulo, Paolo; Biasini, Maurizio; Bilei, Gian Mario; Fanò, Livio; Lariccia, Paolo; Mantovani, Giancarlo; Menichelli, Mauro; Nappi, Aniello; Romeo, Francesco; Saha, Anirban; Santocchia, Attilio; Spiezia, Aniello; Taroni, Silvia; Azzurri, Paolo; Bagliesi, Giuseppe; Boccali, Tommaso; Broccolo, Giuseppe; Castaldi, Rino; D'Agnolo, Raffaele Tito; Dell'Orso, Roberto; Fiori, Francesco; Foà, Lorenzo; Giassi, Alessandro; Kraan, Aafke; Ligabue, Franco; Lomtadze, Teimuraz; Martini, Luca; Messineo, Alberto; Palla, Fabrizio; Rizzi, Andrea; Serban, Alin Titus; Spagnolo, Paolo; Squillacioti, Paola; Tenchini, Roberto; Tonelli, Guido; Venturi, Andrea; Verdini, Piero Giorgio; Vernieri, Caterina; Barone, Luciano; Cavallari, Francesca; Del Re, Daniele; Diemoz, Marcella; Fanelli, Cristiano; Grassi, Marco; Longo, Egidio; Margaroli, Fabrizio; Meridiani, Paolo; Micheli, Francesco; Nourbakhsh, Shervin; Organtini, Giovanni; Paramatti, Riccardo; Rahatlou, Shahram; Soffi, Livia; Amapane, Nicola; Arcidiacono, Roberta; Argiro, Stefano; Arneodo, Michele; Biino, Cristina; Cartiglia, Nicolo; Casasso, Stefano; Costa, Marco; Demaria, Natale; Mariotti, Chiara; Maselli, Silvia; Migliore, Ernesto; Monaco, Vincenzo; Musich, Marco; Obertino, Maria Margherita; Ortona, Giacomo; Pastrone, Nadia; Pelliccioni, Mario; Potenza, Alberto; Romero, Alessandra; Sacchi, Roberto; Solano, Ada; Staiano, Amedeo; Tamponi, Umberto; Belforte, Stefano; Candelise, Vieri; Casarsa, Massimo; Cossutti, Fabio; Della Ricca, Giuseppe; Gobbo, Benigno; Marone, Matteo; Montanino, Damiana; Penzo, Aldo; Schizzi, Andrea; Zanetti, Anna; Kim, Tae Yeon; Nam, Soon-Kwon; Chang, Sunghyun; Kim, Dong Hee; Kim, Gui Nyun; Kim, Ji Eun; Kong, Dae Jung; Oh, Young Do; Park, Hyangkyu; Son, Dong-Chul; Kim, Jae Yool; Kim, Zero Jaeho; Song, Sanghyeon; Choi, Suyong; Gyun, Dooyeon; Hong, Byung-Sik; Jo, Mihee; Kim, Hyunchul; Kim, Tae Jeong; Lee, Kyong Sei; Moon, Dong Ho; Park, Sung Keun; Roh, Youn; Choi, Minkyoo; Kim, Ji Hyun; Park, Chawon; Park, Inkyu; Park, Sangnam; Ryu, Geonmo; Choi, Young-Il; Choi, Young Kyu; Goh, Junghwan; Kim, Min Suk; Kwon, Eunhyang; Lee, Byounghoon; Lee, Jongseok; Lee, Sungeun; Seo, Hyunkwan; Yu, Intae; Grigelionis, Ignas; Juodagalvis, Andrius; Castilla-Valdez, Heriberto; De La Cruz-Burelo, Eduard; Heredia-de La Cruz, Ivan; Lopez-Fernandez, Ricardo; Martínez-Ortega, Jorge; Sánchez Hernández, Alberto; Villasenor-Cendejas, Luis Manuel; Carrillo Moreno, Salvador; Vazquez Valencia, Fabiola; Salazar Ibarguen, Humberto Antonio; Casimiro Linares, Edgar; Morelos Pineda, Antonio; Reyes-Santos, Marco A; Krofcheck, David; Bell, Alan James; Butler, Philip H; Doesburg, Robert; Reucroft, Steve; Silverwood, Hamish; Ahmad, Muhammad; Asghar, Muhammad Irfan; Butt, Jamila; Hoorani, Hafeez R; Khalid, Shoaib; Khan, Wajid Ali; Khurshid, Taimoor; Qazi, Shamona; Shah, Mehar Ali; Shoaib, Muhammad; Bialkowska, Helena; Boimska, Bożena; Frueboes, Tomasz; Górski, Maciej; Kazana, Malgorzata; Nawrocki, Krzysztof; Romanowska-Rybinska, Katarzyna; Szleper, Michal; Wrochna, Grzegorz; Zalewski, Piotr; Brona, Grzegorz; Bunkowski, Karol; Cwiok, Mikolaj; Dominik, Wojciech; Doroba, Krzysztof; Kalinowski, Artur; Konecki, Marcin; Krolikowski, Jan; Misiura, Maciej; Wolszczak, Weronika; Almeida, Nuno; Bargassa, Pedrame; David Tinoco Mendes, Andre; Faccioli, Pietro; Ferreira Parracho, Pedro Guilherme; Gallinaro, Michele; Seixas, Joao; Varela, Joao; Vischia, Pietro; Bunin, Pavel; Golutvin, Igor; Gorbunov, Ilya; Karjavin, Vladimir; Konoplyanikov, Viktor; Kozlov, Guennady; Lanev, Alexander; Malakhov, Alexander; Moisenz, Petr; Palichik, Vladimir; Perelygin, Victor; Savina, Maria; Shmatov, Sergey; Shulha, Siarhei; Smirnov, Vitaly; Volodko, Anton; Zarubin, Anatoli; Evstyukhin, Sergey; Golovtsov, Victor; Ivanov, Yury; Kim, Victor; Levchenko, Petr; Murzin, Victor; Oreshkin, Vadim; Smirnov, Igor; Sulimov, Valentin; Uvarov, Lev; Vavilov, Sergey; Vorobyev, Alexey; Vorobyev, Andrey; Andreev, Yuri; Dermenev, Alexander; Gninenko, Sergei; Golubev, Nikolai; Kirsanov, Mikhail; Krasnikov, Nikolai; Matveev, Viktor; Pashenkov, Anatoli; Tlisov, Danila; Toropin, Alexander; Epshteyn, Vladimir; Erofeeva, Maria; Gavrilov, Vladimir; Lychkovskaya, Natalia; Popov, Vladimir; Safronov, Grigory; Semenov, Sergey; Spiridonov, Alexander; Stolin, Viatcheslav; Vlasov, Evgueni; Zhokin, Alexander; Andreev, Vladimir; Azarkin, Maksim; Dremin, Igor; Kirakosyan, Martin; Leonidov, Andrey; Mesyats, Gennady; Rusakov, Sergey V; Vinogradov, Alexey; Belyaev, Andrey; Boos, Edouard; Bunichev, Viacheslav; Dubinin, Mikhail; Dudko, Lev; Ershov, Alexander; Gribushin, Andrey; Klyukhin, Vyacheslav; Kodolova, Olga; Lokhtin, Igor; Markina, Anastasia; Obraztsov, Stepan; Petrushanko, Sergey; Savrin, Viktor; Azhgirey, Igor; Bayshev, Igor; Bitioukov, Sergei; Kachanov, Vassili; Kalinin, Alexey; Konstantinov, Dmitri; Krychkine, Victor; Petrov, Vladimir; Ryutin, Roman; Sobol, Andrei; Tourtchanovitch, Leonid; Troshin, Sergey; Tyurin, Nikolay; Uzunian, Andrey; Volkov, Alexey; Adzic, Petar; Ekmedzic, Marko; Krpic, Dragomir; Milosevic, Jovan; Aguilar-Benitez, Manuel; Alcaraz Maestre, Juan; Battilana, Carlo; Calvo, Enrique; Cerrada, Marcos; Chamizo Llatas, Maria; Colino, Nicanor; De La Cruz, Begona; Delgado Peris, Antonio; Domínguez Vázquez, Daniel; Fernandez Bedoya, Cristina; Fernández Ramos, Juan Pablo; Ferrando, Antonio; Flix, Jose; Fouz, Maria Cruz; Garcia-Abia, Pablo; Gonzalez Lopez, Oscar; Goy Lopez, Silvia; Hernandez, Jose M; Josa, Maria Isabel; Merino, Gonzalo; Puerta Pelayo, Jesus; Quintario Olmeda, Adrián; Redondo, Ignacio; Romero, Luciano; Santaolalla, Javier; Senghi Soares, Mara; Willmott, Carlos; Albajar, Carmen; de Trocóniz, Jorge F; Brun, Hugues; Cuevas, Javier; Fernandez Menendez, Javier; Folgueras, Santiago; Gonzalez Caballero, Isidro; Lloret Iglesias, Lara; Piedra Gomez, Jonatan; Brochero Cifuentes, Javier Andres; Cabrillo, Iban Jose; Calderon, Alicia; Chuang, Shan-Huei; Duarte Campderros, Jordi; Fernandez, Marcos; Gomez, Gervasio; Gonzalez Sanchez, Javier; Graziano, Alberto; Jorda, Clara; Lopez Virto, Amparo; Marco, Jesus; Marco, Rafael; Martinez Rivero, Celso; Matorras, Francisco; Munoz Sanchez, Francisca Javiela; Rodrigo, Teresa; Rodríguez-Marrero, Ana Yaiza; Ruiz-Jimeno, Alberto; Scodellaro, Luca; Vila, Ivan; Vilar Cortabitarte, Rocio; Abbaneo, Duccio; Auffray, Etiennette; Auzinger, Georg; Bachtis, Michail; Baillon, Paul; Ball, Austin; Barney, David; Bendavid, Joshua; Benitez, Jose F; Bernet, Colin; Bianchi, Giovanni; Bloch, Philippe; Bocci, Andrea; Bonato, Alessio; Botta, Cristina; Breuker, Horst; Camporesi, Tiziano; Cerminara, Gianluca; Christiansen, Tim; Coarasa Perez, Jose Antonio; D'Enterria, David; Dabrowski, Anne; De Roeck, Albert; De Visscher, Simon; Di Guida, Salvatore; Dobson, Marc; Dupont-Sagorin, Niels; Elliott-Peisert, Anna; Eugster, Jürg; Funk, Wolfgang; Georgiou, Georgios; Giffels, Manuel; Gigi, Dominique; Gill, Karl; Giordano, Domenico; Giunta, Marina; Glege, Frank; Gomez-Reino Garrido, Robert; Govoni, Pietro; Gowdy, Stephen; Guida, Roberto; Hammer, Josef; Hansen, Magnus; Harris, Philip; Hartl, Christian; Harvey, John; Hegner, Benedikt; Hinzmann, Andreas; Innocente, Vincenzo; Janot, Patrick; Kaadze, Ketino; Karavakis, Edward; Kousouris, Konstantinos; Krajczar, Krisztian; Lecoq, Paul; Lee, Yen-Jie; Lourenco, Carlos; Malberti, Martina; Malgeri, Luca; Mannelli, Marcello; Masetti, Lorenzo; Meijers, Frans; Mersi, Stefano; Meschi, Emilio; Moser, Roland; Mulders, Martijn; Musella, Pasquale; Nesvold, Erik; Orsini, Luciano; Palencia Cortezon, Enrique; Perez, Emmanuelle; Perrozzi, Luca; Petrilli, Achille; Pfeiffer, Andreas; Pierini, Maurizio; Pimiä, Martti; Piparo, Danilo; Polese, Giovanni; Quertenmont, Loic; Racz, Attila; Reece, William; Rodrigues Antunes, Joao; Rolandi, Gigi; Rovelli, Chiara; Rovere, Marco; Sakulin, Hannes; Santanastasio, Francesco; Schäfer, Christoph; Schwick, Christoph; Segoni, Ilaria; Sekmen, Sezen; Sharma, Archana; Siegrist, Patrice; Silva, Pedro; Simon, Michal; Sphicas, Paraskevas; Spiga, Daniele; Stoye, Markus; Tsirou, Andromachi; Veres, Gabor Istvan; Vlimant, Jean-Roch; Wöhri, Hermine Katharina; Worm, Steven; Zeuner, Wolfram Dietrich; Bertl, Willi; Deiters, Konrad; Erdmann, Wolfram; Gabathuler, Kurt; Horisberger, Roland; Ingram, Quentin; Kaestli, Hans-Christian; König, Stefan; Kotlinski, Danek; Langenegger, Urs; Meier, Frank; Renker, Dieter; Rohe, Tilman; Bachmair, Felix; Bäni, Lukas; Bortignon, Pierluigi; Buchmann, Marco-Andrea; Casal, Bruno; Chanon, Nicolas; Deisher, Amanda; Dissertori, Günther; Dittmar, Michael; Donegà, Mauro; Dünser, Marc; Eller, Philipp; Grab, Christoph; Hits, Dmitry; Lecomte, Pierre; Lustermann, Werner; Marini, Andrea Carlo; Martinez Ruiz del Arbol, Pablo; Mohr, Niklas; Moortgat, Filip; Nägeli, Christoph; Nef, Pascal; Nessi-Tedaldi, Francesca; Pandolfi, Francesco; Pape, Luc; Pauss, Felicitas; Peruzzi, Marco; Ronga, Frederic Jean; Rossini, Marco; Sala, Leonardo; Sanchez, Ann - Karin; Starodumov, Andrei; Stieger, Benjamin; Takahashi, Maiko; Tauscher, Ludwig; Thea, Alessandro; Theofilatos, Konstantinos; Treille, Daniel; Urscheler, Christina; Wallny, Rainer; Weber, Hannsjoerg Artur; Amsler, Claude; Chiochia, Vincenzo; Favaro, Carlotta; Ivova Rikova, Mirena; Kilminster, Benjamin; Millan Mejias, Barbara; Otiougova, Polina; Robmann, Peter; Snoek, Hella; Tupputi, Salvatore; Verzetti, Mauro; Cardaci, Marco; Chen, Kuan-Hsin; Ferro, Cristina; Kuo, Chia-Ming; Li, Syue-Wei; Lin, Willis; Lu, Yun-Ju; Volpe, Roberta; Yu, Shin-Shan; Bartalini, Paolo; Chang, Paoti; Chang, You-Hao; Chang, Yu-Wei; Chao, Yuan; Chen, Kai-Feng; Dietz, Charles; Grundler, Ulysses; Hou, George Wei-Shu; Hsiung, Yee; Kao, Kai-Yi; Lei, Yeong-Jyi; Lu, Rong-Shyang; Majumder, Devdatta; Petrakou, Eleni; Shi, Xin; Shiu, Jing-Ge; Tzeng, Yeng-Ming; Wang, Minzu; Asavapibhop, Burin; Suwonjandee, Narumon; Adiguzel, Aytul; Bakirci, Mustafa Numan; Cerci, Salim; Dozen, Candan; Dumanoglu, Isa; Eskut, Eda; Girgis, Semiray; Gokbulut, Gul; Gurpinar, Emine; Hos, Ilknur; Kangal, Evrim Ersin; Kayis Topaksu, Aysel; Onengut, Gulsen; Ozdemir, Kadri; Ozturk, Sertac; Polatoz, Ayse; Sogut, Kenan; Sunar Cerci, Deniz; Tali, Bayram; Topakli, Huseyin; Vergili, Mehmet; Akin, Ilina Vasileva; Aliev, Takhmasib; Bilin, Bugra; Bilmis, Selcuk; Deniz, Muhammed; Gamsizkan, Halil; Guler, Ali Murat; Karapinar, Guler; Ocalan, Kadir; Ozpineci, Altug; Serin, Meltem; Sever, Ramazan; Surat, Ugur Emrah; Yalvac, Metin; Zeyrek, Mehmet; Gülmez, Erhan; Isildak, Bora; Kaya, Mithat; Kaya, Ozlem; Ozkorucuklu, Suat; Sonmez, Nasuf; Bahtiyar, Hüseyin; Barlas, Esra; Cankocak, Kerem; Günaydin, Yusuf Oguzhan; Vardarli, Fuat Ilkehan; Yücel, Mete; Levchuk, Leonid; Sorokin, Pavel; Brooke, James John; Clement, Emyr; Cussans, David; Flacher, Henning; Frazier, Robert; Goldstein, Joel; Grimes, Mark; Heath, Greg P; Heath, Helen F; Kreczko, Lukasz; Metson, Simon; Newbold, Dave M; Nirunpong, Kachanon; Poll, Anthony; Senkin, Sergey; Smith, Vincent J; Williams, Thomas; Basso, Lorenzo; Bell, Ken W; Belyaev, Alexander; Brew, Christopher; Brown, Robert M; Cockerill, David JA; Coughlan, John A; Harder, Kristian; Harper, Sam; Jackson, James; Olaiya, Emmanuel; Petyt, David; Radburn-Smith, Benjamin Charles; Shepherd-Themistocleous, Claire; Tomalin, Ian R; Womersley, William John; Bainbridge, Robert; Ball, Gordon; Buchmuller, Oliver; Colling, David; Cripps, Nicholas; Cutajar, Michael; Dauncey, Paul; Davies, Gavin; Della Negra, Michel; Ferguson, William; Fulcher, Jonathan; Gilbert, Andrew; Guneratne Bryer, Arlo; Hall, Geoffrey; Hatherell, Zoe; Hays, Jonathan; Iles, Gregory; Jarvis, Martyn; Karapostoli, Georgia; Kenzie, Matthew; Lyons, Louis; Magnan, Anne-Marie; Marrouche, Jad; Mathias, Bryn; Nandi, Robin; Nash, Jordan; Nikitenko, Alexander; Pela, Joao; Pesaresi, Mark; Petridis, Konstantinos; Pioppi, Michele; Raymond, David Mark; Rogerson, Samuel; Rose, Andrew; Seez, Christopher; Sharp, Peter; Sparrow, Alex; Tapper, Alexander; Vazquez Acosta, Monica; Virdee, Tejinder; Wakefield, Stuart; Wardle, Nicholas; Whyntie, Tom; 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Palmer, Christopher; Petrucciani, Giovanni; Pieri, Marco; Sani, Matteo; Sharma, Vivek; Simon, Sean; Sudano, Elizabeth; Tadel, Matevz; Tu, Yanjun; Vartak, Adish; Wasserbaech, Steven; Würthwein, Frank; Yagil, Avraham; Yoo, Jaehyeok; Barge, Derek; Bellan, Riccardo; Campagnari, Claudio; D'Alfonso, Mariarosaria; Danielson, Thomas; Flowers, Kristen; Geffert, Paul; George, Christopher; Golf, Frank; Incandela, Joe; Justus, Christopher; Kalavase, Puneeth; Kovalskyi, Dmytro; Krutelyov, Vyacheslav; Lowette, Steven; Magaña Villalba, Ricardo; Mccoll, Nickolas; Pavlunin, Viktor; Ribnik, Jacob; Richman, Jeffrey; Rossin, Roberto; Stuart, David; To, Wing; West, Christopher; Apresyan, Artur; Bornheim, Adolf; Bunn, Julian; Chen, Yi; Di Marco, Emanuele; Duarte, Javier; Kcira, Dorian; Ma, Yousi; Mott, Alexander; Newman, Harvey B; Rogan, Christopher; Spiropulu, Maria; Timciuc, Vladlen; Veverka, Jan; Wilkinson, Richard; Xie, Si; Yang, Yong; Zhu, Ren-Yuan; Azzolini, Virginia; Calamba, Aristotle; Carroll, Ryan; Ferguson, Thomas; Iiyama, Yutaro; Jang, Dong Wook; Liu, Yueh-Feng; Paulini, Manfred; Russ, James; Vogel, Helmut; Vorobiev, Igor; Cumalat, John Perry; Drell, Brian Robert; Ford, William T; Gaz, Alessandro; Luiggi Lopez, Eduardo; Nauenberg, Uriel; Smith, James; Stenson, Kevin; Ulmer, Keith; Wagner, Stephen Robert; Alexander, James; Chatterjee, Avishek; Eggert, Nicholas; Gibbons, Lawrence Kent; Hopkins, Walter; Khukhunaishvili, Aleko; Kreis, Benjamin; Mirman, Nathan; Nicolas Kaufman, Gala; Patterson, Juliet Ritchie; Ryd, Anders; Salvati, Emmanuele; Sun, Werner; Teo, Wee Don; Thom, Julia; Thompson, Joshua; Tucker, Jordan; Weng, Yao; Winstrom, Lucas; Wittich, Peter; Winn, Dave; Abdullin, Salavat; Albrow, Michael; Anderson, Jacob; Apollinari, Giorgio; Bauerdick, Lothar AT; Beretvas, Andrew; Berryhill, Jeffrey; Bhat, Pushpalatha C; Burkett, Kevin; Butler, Joel Nathan; Chetluru, Vasundhara; Cheung, Harry; Chlebana, Frank; Cihangir, Selcuk; Elvira, Victor Daniel; Fisk, Ian; Freeman, Jim; Gao, Yanyan; Gottschalk, Erik; Gray, Lindsey; Green, Dan; Gutsche, Oliver; Harris, Robert M; Hirschauer, James; Hooberman, Benjamin; Jindariani, Sergo; Johnson, Marvin; Joshi, Umesh; Klima, Boaz; Kunori, Shuichi; Kwan, Simon; Linacre, Jacob; Lincoln, Don; Lipton, Ron; Lykken, Joseph; Maeshima, Kaori; Marraffino, John Michael; Martinez Outschoorn, Verena Ingrid; Maruyama, Sho; Mason, David; McBride, Patricia; Mishra, Kalanand; Mrenna, Stephen; Musienko, Yuri; Newman-Holmes, Catherine; O'Dell, Vivian; Prokofyev, Oleg; Sexton-Kennedy, Elizabeth; Sharma, Seema; Spalding, William J; Spiegel, Leonard; Taylor, Lucas; Tkaczyk, Slawek; Tran, Nhan Viet; Uplegger, Lorenzo; Vaandering, Eric Wayne; Vidal, Richard; Whitmore, Juliana; Wu, Weimin; Yang, Fan; Yun, Jae Chul; Acosta, Darin; Avery, Paul; Bourilkov, Dimitri; Chen, Mingshui; Cheng, Tongguang; Das, Souvik; De Gruttola, Michele; Di Giovanni, Gian Piero; Dobur, Didar; Drozdetskiy, Alexey; Field, Richard D; Fisher, Matthew; Fu, Yu; Furic, Ivan-Kresimir; Hugon, Justin; Kim, Bockjoo; Konigsberg, Jacobo; Korytov, Andrey; Kropivnitskaya, Anna; Kypreos, Theodore; Low, Jia Fu; Matchev, Konstantin; Milenovic, Predrag; Mitselmakher, Guenakh; Muniz, Lana; Remington, Ronald; Rinkevicius, Aurelijus; Skhirtladze, Nikoloz; Snowball, Matthew; Yelton, John; Zakaria, Mohammed; Gaultney, Vanessa; Hewamanage, Samantha; Lebolo, Luis Miguel; Linn, Stephan; Markowitz, Pete; Martinez, German; Rodriguez, Jorge Luis; Adams, Todd; Askew, Andrew; Bochenek, Joseph; Chen, Jie; Diamond, Brendan; Gleyzer, Sergei V; Haas, Jeff; Hagopian, Sharon; Hagopian, Vasken; Johnson, Kurtis F; Prosper, Harrison; Veeraraghavan, Venkatesh; Weinberg, Marc; Baarmand, Marc M; Dorney, Brian; Hohlmann, Marcus; Kalakhety, Himali; Yumiceva, Francisco; Adams, Mark Raymond; Apanasevich, Leonard; Bazterra, Victor Eduardo; Betts, Russell Richard; Bucinskaite, Inga; Callner, Jeremy; Cavanaugh, Richard; Evdokimov, Olga; Gauthier, Lucie; Gerber, Cecilia Elena; Hofman, David Jonathan; Khalatyan, Samvel; Kurt, Pelin; Lacroix, Florent; O'Brien, Christine; Silkworth, Christopher; Strom, Derek; Turner, Paul; Varelas, Nikos; Akgun, Ugur; Albayrak, Elif Asli; Bilki, Burak; Clarida, Warren; Dilsiz, Kamuran; Duru, Firdevs; Griffiths, Scott; Merlo, Jean-Pierre; Mermerkaya, Hamit; Mestvirishvili, Alexi; Moeller, Anthony; Nachtman, Jane; Newsom, Charles Ray; Ogul, Hasan; Onel, Yasar; Ozok, Ferhat; Sen, Sercan; Tan, Ping; Tiras, Emrah; Wetzel, James; Yetkin, Taylan; Yi, Kai; Barnett, Bruce Arnold; Blumenfeld, Barry; Bolognesi, Sara; Fehling, David; Giurgiu, Gavril; Gritsan, Andrei; Hu, Guofan; Maksimovic, Petar; Swartz, Morris; Whitbeck, Andrew; Baringer, Philip; Bean, Alice; Benelli, Gabriele; Kenny III, Raymond Patrick; Murray, Michael; Noonan, Daniel; Sanders, Stephen; Stringer, Robert; Wood, Jeffrey Scott; Barfuss, Anne-Fleur; Chakaberia, Irakli; Ivanov, Andrew; Khalil, Sadia; Makouski, Mikhail; Maravin, Yurii; Shrestha, Shruti; Svintradze, Irakli; Gronberg, Jeffrey; Lange, David; Rebassoo, Finn; Wright, Douglas; Baden, Drew; Calvert, Brian; Eno, Sarah Catherine; Gomez, Jaime; Hadley, Nicholas John; Kellogg, Richard G; Kolberg, Ted; Lu, Ying; Marionneau, Matthieu; Mignerey, Alice; Pedro, Kevin; Peterman, Alison; Skuja, Andris; Temple, Jeffrey; Tonjes, Marguerite; Tonwar, Suresh C; Apyan, Aram; Bauer, Gerry; Busza, Wit; Butz, Erik; Cali, Ivan Amos; Chan, Matthew; Dutta, Valentina; Gomez Ceballos, Guillelmo; Goncharov, Maxim; Kim, Yongsun; Klute, Markus; Levin, Andrew; Luckey, Paul David; Ma, Teng; Nahn, Steve; Paus, Christoph; Ralph, Duncan; Roland, Christof; Roland, Gunther; Stephans, George; Stöckli, Fabian; Sumorok, Konstanty; Sung, Kevin; Velicanu, Dragos; Wolf, Roger; Wyslouch, Bolek; Yang, Mingming; Yilmaz, Yetkin; Yoon, Sungho; Zanetti, Marco; Zhukova, Victoria; Dahmes, Bryan; De Benedetti, Abraham; Franzoni, Giovanni; Gude, Alexander; Haupt, Jason; Kao, Shih-Chuan; Klapoetke, Kevin; Kubota, Yuichi; Mans, Jeremy; Pastika, Nathaniel; Rusack, Roger; Sasseville, Michael; Singovsky, Alexander; Tambe, Norbert; Turkewitz, Jared; Cremaldi, Lucien Marcus; Kroeger, Rob; Perera, Lalith; Rahmat, Rahmat; Sanders, David A; Summers, Don; Avdeeva, Ekaterina; Bloom, Kenneth; Bose, Suvadeep; Claes, Daniel R; Dominguez, Aaron; Eads, Michael; Keller, Jason; Kravchenko, Ilya; Lazo-Flores, Jose; Malik, Sudhir; Snow, Gregory R; Godshalk, Andrew; Iashvili, Ia; Jain, Supriya; Kharchilava, Avto; Kumar, Ashish; Rappoccio, Salvatore; Wan, Zongru; Alverson, George; Barberis, Emanuela; Baumgartel, Darin; Chasco, Matthew; Haley, Joseph; Nash, David; Orimoto, Toyoko; Trocino, Daniele; Wood, Darien; Zhang, Jinzhong; Anastassov, Anton; Hahn, Kristan Allan; Kubik, Andrew; Lusito, Letizia; Mucia, Nicholas; Odell, Nathaniel; Pollack, Brian; Pozdnyakov, Andrey; Schmitt, Michael Henry; Stoynev, Stoyan; Velasco, Mayda; Won, Steven; Berry, Douglas; Brinkerhoff, Andrew; Chan, Kwok Ming; Hildreth, Michael; Jessop, Colin; Karmgard, Daniel John; Kolb, Jeff; Lannon, Kevin; Luo, Wuming; Lynch, Sean; Marinelli, Nancy; 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Leonardo, Nuno; Maroussov, Vassili; Merkel, Petra; Miller, David Harry; Neumeister, Norbert; Shipsey, Ian; Silvers, David; Svyatkovskiy, Alexey; Vidal Marono, Miguel; Yoo, Hwi Dong; Zablocki, Jakub; Zheng, Yu; Guragain, Samir; Parashar, Neeti; Adair, Antony; Akgun, Bora; Ecklund, Karl Matthew; Geurts, Frank JM; Li, Wei; Padley, Brian Paul; Redjimi, Radia; Roberts, Jay; Zabel, James; Betchart, Burton; Bodek, Arie; Covarelli, Roberto; de Barbaro, Pawel; Demina, Regina; Eshaq, Yossof; Ferbel, Thomas; Garcia-Bellido, Aran; Goldenzweig, Pablo; Han, Jiyeon; Harel, Amnon; Miner, Daniel Carl; Petrillo, Gianluca; Vishnevskiy, Dmitry; Zielinski, Marek; Bhatti, Anwar; Ciesielski, Robert; Demortier, Luc; Goulianos, Konstantin; Lungu, Gheorghe; Malik, Sarah; Mesropian, Christina; Arora, Sanjay; Barker, Anthony; Chou, John Paul; Contreras-Campana, Christian; Contreras-Campana, Emmanuel; Duggan, Daniel; Ferencek, Dinko; Gershtein, Yuri; Gray, Richard; Halkiadakis, Eva; Hidas, Dean; Lath, Amitabh; Panwalkar, Shruti; Park, Michael; Patel, Rishi; Rekovic, Vladimir; Robles, Jorge; Rose, Keith; Salur, Sevil; Schnetzer, Steve; Seitz, Claudia; Somalwar, Sunil; Stone, Robert; Walker, Matthew; Cerizza, Giordano; Hollingsworth, Matthew; Spanier, Stefan; Yang, Zong-Chang; York, Andrew; Eusebi, Ricardo; Flanagan, Will; Gilmore, Jason; Kamon, Teruki; Khotilovich, Vadim; Montalvo, Roy; Osipenkov, Ilya; Pakhotin, Yuriy; Perloff, Alexx; Roe, Jeffrey; Safonov, Alexei; Sakuma, Tai; Suarez, Indara; Tatarinov, Aysen; Toback, David; Akchurin, Nural; Damgov, Jordan; Dragoiu, Cosmin; Dudero, Phillip Russell; Jeong, Chiyoung; Kovitanggoon, Kittikul; Lee, Sung Won; Libeiro, Terence; Volobouev, Igor; Appelt, Eric; Delannoy, Andrés G; Greene, Senta; Gurrola, Alfredo; Johns, Willard; Maguire, Charles; Mao, Yaxian; Melo, Andrew; Sharma, Monika; Sheldon, Paul; Snook, Benjamin; Tuo, Shengquan; Velkovska, Julia; Arenton, Michael Wayne; Balazs, Michael; Boutle, Sarah; Cox, Bradley; Francis, Brian; Goodell, Joseph; Hirosky, Robert; Ledovskoy, Alexander; Lin, Chuanzhe; Neu, Christopher; Wood, John; Gollapinni, Sowjanya; Harr, Robert; Karchin, Paul Edmund; Kottachchi Kankanamge Don, Chamath; Lamichhane, Pramod; Sakharov, Alexandre; Anderson, Michael; Belknap, Donald; Borrello, Laura; Carlsmith, Duncan; Cepeda, Maria; Dasu, Sridhara; Friis, Evan; Grogg, Kira Suzanne; Grothe, Monika; Hall-Wilton, Richard; Herndon, Matthew; Hervé, Alain; Klabbers, Pamela; Klukas, Jeffrey; Lanaro, Armando; Lazaridis, Christos; Loveless, Richard; Mohapatra, Ajit; Mozer, Matthias Ulrich; Ojalvo, Isabel; Pierro, Giuseppe Antonio; Ross, Ian; Savin, Alexander; Smith, Wesley H; Swanson, Joshua

2013-05-28

A search for the standard model Higgs boson produced in association with a top-quark pair is presented using data samples corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 5.0 inverse femtobarns (5.1 inverse femtobarns) collected in pp collisions at the center-of-mass energy of 7 TeV (8 TeV). Events are considered where the top-quark pair decays to either one lepton+jets ($t\\bar{t} \\to \\ell\

Modelling in Business Model design

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Simonse, W.L.

2013-01-01

It appears that business model design might not always produce a design or model as the expected result. However when designers are involved, a visual model or artefact is produced. To assist strategic managers in thinking about how they can act, the designers challenge is to combine strategy and

Regolith history from cosmic-ray-produced isotopes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fireman, E.L.

1974-04-01

A statistical model is given for soil development relating meteoroid impacts on the moon to cosmic-ray-produced isotopes in the soil. By means of this model, the average lunar mass loss rate during the past 14 aeons is determined to be 170 g/sq cm aeon and the soil mixing rate to be approximately 200 cm/aeon from the gadolinium isotope data for the Apollo 15 and 16 drill stems. The isotope data also restrict the time variation of the meteoroid flux during the past 14 aeons. (U.S.)

Pricing Electricity in Pools With Wind Producers

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Morales González, Juan Miguel; Conejo, A. J.; Kai Liu

2012-01-01

This paper considers an electricity pool that includes a significant number of wind producers and is cleared through a network-constrained auction, one day in advance and on an hourly basis. The hourly auction is formulated as a two-stage stochastic programming problem, where the first stage...... represents the clearing of the market and the second stage models the system operation under a number of plausible wind production realizations. This formulation co-optimizes energy and reserve, and allows deriving both pool energy prices and balancing energy prices. These prices result in both cost recovery...... for producers and revenue reconciliation. A case study of realistic size is used to illustrate the functioning of the proposed pricing scheme....

Stochastic Approaches Within a High Resolution Rapid Refresh Ensemble

Science.gov (United States)

Jankov, I.

2017-12-01

It is well known that global and regional numerical weather prediction (NWP) ensemble systems are under-dispersive, producing unreliable and overconfident ensemble forecasts. Typical approaches to alleviate this problem include the use of multiple dynamic cores, multiple physics suite configurations, or a combination of the two. While these approaches may produce desirable results, they have practical and theoretical deficiencies and are more difficult and costly to maintain. An active area of research that promotes a more unified and sustainable system is the use of stochastic physics. Stochastic approaches include Stochastic Parameter Perturbations (SPP), Stochastic Kinetic Energy Backscatter (SKEB), and Stochastic Perturbation of Physics Tendencies (SPPT). The focus of this study is to assess model performance within a convection-permitting ensemble at 3-km grid spacing across the Contiguous United States (CONUS) using a variety of stochastic approaches. A single physics suite configuration based on the operational High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model was utilized and ensemble members produced by employing stochastic methods. Parameter perturbations (using SPP) for select fields were employed in the Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) land surface model (LSM) and Mellor-Yamada-Nakanishi-Niino (MYNN) Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) schemes. Within MYNN, SPP was applied to sub-grid cloud fraction, mixing length, roughness length, mass fluxes and Prandtl number. In the RUC LSM, SPP was applied to hydraulic conductivity and tested perturbing soil moisture at initial time. First iterative testing was conducted to assess the initial performance of several configuration settings (e.g. variety of spatial and temporal de-correlation lengths). Upon selection of the most promising candidate configurations using SPP, a 10-day time period was run and more robust statistics were gathered. SKEB and SPPT were included in additional retrospective tests to assess the impact of using

An overview of the HIBISCUS campaign

Science.gov (United States)

Pommereau, J.-P.; Garnier, A.; Held, G.; Gomes, A. M.; Goutail, F.; Durry, G.; Borchi, F.; Hauchecorne, A.; Montoux, N.; Cocquerez, P.; Letrenne, G.; Vial, F.; Hertzog, A.; Legras, B.; Pisso, I.; Pyle, J. A.; Harris, N. R. P.; Jones, R. L.; Robinson, A. D.; Hansford, G.; Eden, L.; Gardiner, T.; Swann, N.; Knudsen, B.; Larsen, N.; Nielsen, J. K.; Christensen, T.; Cairo, F.; Fierli, F.; Pirre, M.; Marécal, V.; Huret, N.; Rivière, E. D.; Coe, H.; Grosvenor, D.; Edvarsen, K.; di Donfrancesco, G.; Ricaud, P.; Berthelier, J.-J.; Godefroy, M.; Seran, E.; Longo, K.; Freitas, S.

2011-03-01

The EU HIBISCUS project consisted of a series of field campaigns during the intense convective summers in 2001, 2003 and 2004 in the State of São Paulo in Brazil. Its objective was to investigate the impact of deep convection on the Tropical Tropopause Layer (TTL) and the lower stratosphere by providing a new set of observational data on meteorology, tracers of horizontal and vertical transport, water vapour, clouds, and chemistry in the tropical Upper Troposphere/Lower Stratosphere (UT/LS). This was achieved using short duration research balloons to study local phenomena associated with convection over land, and long-duration balloons circumnavigating the globe to study the contrast between land and oceans. Analyses of observations of short-lived tracers, ozone and ice particles show strong episodic local updraughts of cold air across the lapse rate tropopause up to 18 or 19 km (420-440 K) in the lower stratosphere by overshooting towers. The long duration balloon and satellite measurements reveal a contrast between the composition of the lower stratosphere over land and oceanic areas, suggesting significant global impact of such events. The overshoots are shown to be well captured by non-hydrostatic meso-scale Cloud Resolving Models indicating vertical velocities of 50-60 m s-1 at the top of the Neutral Buoyancy Level (NBL) at around 14 km, but, in contrast, are poorly represented by global Chemistry-Transport Models (CTM) forced by Numerical Weather Forecast Models (NWP) underestimating the overshooting process. Finally, the data collected by the HIBISCUS balloons have allowed a thorough evaluation of temperature NWP analyses and reanalyses, as well as satellite ozone, nitrogen oxide, water vapour and bromine oxide measurements in the tropics.

Three dimensional modeling on airflow, heat and mass transfer in partially impermeable enclosure containing agricultural produce during natural convective cooling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chourasia, M.K.; Goswami, T.K.

2007-01-01

A three dimensional model was developed to simulate the transport phenomena in heat and mass generating porous medium cooled under natural convective environment. Unlike the previous works on this aspect, the present model was aimed for bulk stored agricultural produce contained in a permeable package placed on a hard surface. This situation made the bottom of the package impermeable to fluid flow as well as moisture transfer and adiabatic to heat transfer. The velocity vectors, isotherms and contours of rate of moisture loss were presented during transient cooling as well as at steady state using the commercially available computational fluid dynamics (CFD) code based on the finite volume technique. The CFD model was validated using the experimental data on the time-temperature history as well as weight loss obtained from a bag of potatoes kept in a cold store. The simulated and experimental values on temperature and moisture loss of the product were found to be in good agreement

Interaction between laser-produced plasma and guiding magnetic field

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hasegawa, Jun; Takahashi, Kazumasa; Ikeda, Shunsuke; Nakajima, Mitsuo; Horioka, Kazuhiko

2013-01-01

Transportation properties of laser-produced plasma through a guiding magnetic field were examined. A drifting dense plasma produced by a KrF laser was injected into an axisymmetric magnetic field induced by permanent ring magnets. The plasma ion flux in the guiding magnetic field was measured by a Faraday cup at various distances from the laser target. Numerical analyses based on a collective focusing model were performed to simulate plasma particle trajectories and then compared with the experimental results. (author)

CCT`s in a deregulated environment: A producer`s perspective

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Edmonds, R.F. Jr.; Fayssoux, J.O. [Duke Power Co., Charlotte, NC (United States)

1997-12-31

The US electric industry will be deregulated (or substantially re-regulated) within 5 years. Several states, including California, Rhode Island, and New Hampshire, already have passed legislation to introduce competition into the electric markets before the year 2000. As this trend sweeps across the country, the resulting competitive market for generation will reward the lowest cost producers and force high cost producers out of the market. As a result, at least in the short run, it may be very difficult for new power plants employing Clean Coal Technologies (CCTs) to compete. This paper discusses a producer`s perspective of the new competitive market, and suggests several short and long term strategies and niches for CCTs.

Implementation of operational meteorological information service for CARE REMDAS

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Oh, Sung Nam; Nam, Jae Cheol; Choi, Jae Chun; Lee, Byong Lyol; Lee, Bo Ram; Shin, Hyun Cheol; Park, Nan Ah; Song, Chang Keun; Park, Sang Jong

1999-12-01

The scope of this study consists of : improve of CARE REMDAS - identification of meteorolgical information required for nuclear emergency response and their efficient use on a real-time basis, review of the production and operation of KMA NWP nodels and their applications. Suggestions on the improvements in nuclear emergency response systme from the care studies of both domestic and foreign countries - case study of a domestic model for radioactivity T/D in terms of model dynamics and operation, investigation of promising support systems by reviewing the current status of T/D model in UK. Recommendations on a promising meteorological information sevices based on foreign cases - examinations of DWD system, including EU for nuclear emergency response, review on the meteorogical information support by DWD for NERS

Implementation of operational meteorological information service for CARE REMDAS

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Oh, Sung Nam; Nam, Jae Cheol; Choi, Jae Chun [Meteorological Reaearch Institute, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Lee, Byong Lyol; Lee, Bo Ram; Shin, Hyun Cheol; Park, Nan Ah [Korea Meteorological Administration, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Song, Chang Keun; Park, Sang Jong [Seoul National Univ., Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

1999-12-15

The scope of this study consists of : improve of CARE REMDAS - identification of meteorolgical information required for nuclear emergency response and their efficient use on a real-time basis, review of the production and operation of KMA NWP nodels and their applications. Suggestions on the improvements in nuclear emergency response systme from the care studies of both domestic and foreign countries - case study of a domestic model for radioactivity T/D in terms of model dynamics and operation, investigation of promising support systems by reviewing the current status of T/D model in UK. Recommendations on a promising meteorological information sevices based on foreign cases - examinations of DWD system, including EU for nuclear emergency response, review on the meteorogical information support by DWD for NERS.

Cost modelling of electricity-producing hot dry rock (HDR) geothermal systems in the United Kingdom

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Doherty, P.; Harrison, R.

1995-01-01

A detailed and comprehensive cost model for Hot Dry Rock (HDR) electricity producing systems has been developed in this study. The model takes account of the major aspects of the HDR system, parameterized in terms of the main physical and cost parameters of the resource and the utilization system. A doublet configuration is assumed, and the conceptual HDR system which is defined in the study is based upon the UK Department of Energy (DEn) HDR geothermal R and D programme. The model has been used to calculate the costs of HDR electricity for a UK defined base case which represents a consensus view of what might be achieved in Cornwall in the long term. At 14.2 p/kWh (1988 costs) this cost appears to be unacceptably high. A wide-ranging sensitivity study has also been carried out on the main resource, geometrical, and operational parameters of the HDR system centred around the UK base case. The sensitivity study shows the most important parameters to be thermal gradient and depth. The geometrical arrangement and the shape of the reservoir constitute major uncertainties in HDR systems. Their effect on temperature has a major influence on system performance, and therefore a range of theoretically possible geometries have been studied and the importance of geometrical effects on HDR electricity costs assessed. The most cost effective HDR arrangement in terms of optimized volumes and flow rates has been investigated for a world-wide range of thermal settings. The main conclusions from this study suggests that for HDR electricity to be economic, thermal gradients of 55 o C/km and above, well depths of 5 km or less, and production fluid temperatures of 210 o C and above are required. (UK)

Searching for the standard model Higgs boson produced by vector boson fusion in the fully hadronic four-jet topology with CMS

CERN Document Server

Chernyavskaya, Nadezda

2017-01-01

A search for the standard model Higgs boson produced by vector boson fusion in the fully hadronic four-jet topology is presented. The analysis is based on 2.3 fb$^{-1}$ of proton-proton collision data at $\\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV collected by CMS in 2015. Upper limits, at 95\\% confidence level, on the production cross section times branching fraction of the Higgs boson decaying to bottom quarks, are derived for a Higgs boson mass of 125 GeV. The fitted signal strength relative to the expectation for the standard model Higgs boson is obtained. Results are also combined with the ones obtained with Run1 data at $\\sqrt{s}$ = 8 TeV collected in 2012.

Energy consumption in desalinating produced water from shale oil and gas extraction

OpenAIRE

Tow, Emily W.; Chung, Hyung Won; Lienhard, John H.; Thiel, Gregory Parker; Banchik, Leonardo David

2014-01-01

On-site treatment and reuse is an increasingly preferred option for produced water management in unconventional oil and gas extraction. This paper analyzes and compares the energetics of several desalination technologies at the high salinities and diverse compositions commonly encountered in produced water from shale formations to guide technology selection and to inform further system development. Produced water properties are modeled using Pitzer's equations, and emphasis is placed on how t...

Persistent producer-scrounger relationships in bats.

Science.gov (United States)

Harten, Lee; Matalon, Yasmin; Galli, Naama; Navon, Hagit; Dor, Roi; Yovel, Yossi

2018-02-01

Social foraging theory suggests that group-living animals gain from persistent social bonds, which lead to increased tolerance in competitive foraging and information sharing. Bats are among the most social mammals, often living in colonies of tens to thousands of individuals for dozens of years, yet little is known about their social foraging dynamics. We observed three captive bat colonies for over a year, quantifying >13,000 social foraging interactions. We found that individuals consistently used one of two foraging strategies, either producing (collecting) food themselves or scrounging it directly from the mouth of other individuals. Individual foraging types were consistent over at least 16 months except during the lactation period when females shifted toward producing. Scroungers intentionally selected whom to interact with when socially foraging, thus generating persistent nonrandom social relationships with two to three specific producers. These persistent producer-scrounger relationships seem to reduce aggression over time. Finally, scrounging was highly correlated with vigilance, and we hypothesize that vigilant-prone individuals turn to scrounging in the wild to mitigate the risk of landing on a potentially unsafe fruit tree. We find the bat colony to be a rich and dynamic social system, which can serve as a model to study the role that social foraging plays in the evolution of mammalian sociality. Our results highlight the importance of considering individual tendencies when exploring social behavior patterns of group-living animals. These tendencies further emphasize the necessity of studying social networks over time.

Prediction of small spark ignited engine performance using producer gas as fuel

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

N. Homdoung

2015-03-01

Full Text Available Producer gas from biomass gasification is expected to contribute to greater energy mix in the future. Therefore, effect of producer gas on engine performance is of great interest. Evaluation of engine performances can be hard and costly. Ideally, they may be predicted mathematically. This work was to apply mathematical models in evaluating performance of a small producer gas engine. The engine was a spark ignition, single cylinder unit with a CR of 14:1. Simulation was carried out on full load and varying engine speeds. From simulated results, it was found that the simple mathematical model can predict the performance of the gas engine and gave good agreement with experimental results. The differences were within ±7%.

Comparison of two models for the X-ray dispersion produced in a Novillo Tokamak with measurements make with thermoluminescent dosemeters

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Flores O, A.; Castillo, A.; Barocio, S.R.; Melendez L, L.; Chavez A, E.; Cruz C, G.J.; Lopez, R.; Olayo, M.G.; Gonzalez M, P.; Azorin N, J.

1999-01-01

It was presented the results to study about the X-ray dispersion produced in the Novillo Tokamak using thermoluminescent dosemeters (DTL). The measurements were make in the equatorial plane of Tokamak, along twelve radial directions. The dispersion is observed due to the radiation interaction with walls surrounding the machine. It was proposed two types of heuristic mathematical methods for describing the X-ray dispersion, comparing them with the experimental data obtained with Dtl. The predictions of both models are adjusted well to the experimental data. (Author)

Energy deposition at the bone-tissue interface from nuclear fragments produced by high-energy nucleons

Science.gov (United States)

Cucinotta, Francis A.; Hajnal, Ferenc; Wilson, John W.

1990-01-01

The transport of nuclear fragmentation recoils produced by high-energy nucleons in the region of the bone-tissue interface is considered. Results for the different flux and absorbed dose for recoils produced by 1 GeV protons are presented in a bidirectional transport model. The energy deposition in marrow cavities is seen to be enhanced by recoils produced in bone. Approximate analytic formulae for absorbed dose near the interface region are also presented for a simplified range-energy model.

LIG1 polymorphisms: the Indian scenario

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

2014-08-14

Aug 14, 2014 ... occurs across this population on social parameters such as income and ..... HapMap database belonging to Chinese (CHB), Japanese. (JPT) ..... was supported by CSIR network projects CMM0016, CMM0018,. NWP0034.

Estimating cumulative soil accumulation rates with in situ-produced cosmogenic nuclide depth profiles

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Phillips, William M.

2000-01-01

A numerical model relating spatially averaged rates of cumulative soil accumulation and hillslope erosion to cosmogenic nuclide distribution in depth profiles is presented. Model predictions are compared with cosmogenic 21 Ne and AMS radiocarbon data from soils of the Pajarito Plateau, New Mexico. Rates of soil accumulation and hillslope erosion estimated by cosmogenic 21 Ne are significantly lower than rates indicated by radiocarbon and regional soil-geomorphic studies. The low apparent cosmogenic erosion rates are artifacts of high nuclide inheritance in cumulative soil parent material produced from erosion of old soils on hillslopes. In addition, 21 Ne profiles produced under conditions of rapid accumulation (>0.1 cm/a) are difficult to distinguish from bioturbated soil profiles. Modeling indicates that while 10 Be profiles will share this problem, both bioturbation and anomalous inheritance can be identified with measurement of in situ-produced 14 C

Simulations of X-ray transmission through laser-produced plasmas

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yan Jun; Qu Yizhi; Li Jiaming

1999-01-01

Using the detailed configuration accounting with the term structures treated by the unresolved transition array model, the authors present a method to calculate the transmission spectra for high-power laser-produced plasmas in local thermodynamic equilibrium. Based on the quantum defect theory, the UTA parameters with high principal quantum numbers can be conveniently calculated with much less computational efforts. This ensure us to handle a huge number of transition arrays from many configurations occurring in typical laser-produced middle-Z and high-Z plasmas

EUV laser produced and induced plasmas for nanolithography

Science.gov (United States)

Sizyuk, Tatyana; Hassanein, Ahmed

2017-10-01

EUV produced plasma sources are being extensively studied for the development of new technology for computer chips production. Challenging tasks include optimization of EUV source efficiency, producing powerful source in 2 percentage bandwidth around 13.5 nm for high volume manufacture (HVM), and increasing the lifetime of collecting optics. Mass-limited targets, such as small droplet, allow to reduce contamination of chamber environment and mirror surface damage. However, reducing droplet size limits EUV power output. Our analysis showed the requirement for the target parameters and chamber conditions to achieve 500 W EUV output for HVM. The HEIGHTS package was used for the simulations of laser produced plasma evolution starting from laser interaction with solid target, development and expansion of vapor/plasma plume with accurate optical data calculation, especially in narrow EUV region. Detailed 3D modeling of mix environment including evolution and interplay of plasma produced by lasers from Sn target and plasma produced by in-band and out-of-band EUV radiation in ambient gas, used for the collecting optics protection and cleaning, allowed predicting conditions in entire LPP system. Effect of these conditions on EUV photon absorption and collection was analyzed. This work is supported by the National Science Foundation, PIRE project.

Electrostatic fields and charged particle acceleration in laser produced plasmas

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hora, H.

1983-01-01

Some new aspects pioneered recently by Alfven in the theory of cosmic plasmas, indicate the possibility of a new treatment of the action of electrostatic double layers in the periphery of an expanding laser produced plasma. The thermally produced electrostatic double layer which has been re-derived for a homogeneous plasma shows that a strong upshift of ion energies is possible, in agreement with experiments. The number of accelerated ions is many orders of magnitude smaller than observed at keV and MeV energies. The nonlinear force acceleration could explain the number and energy of the observed fast ions. It is shown, however, that electrostatic double layers can be generated which should produce super-fast ions. A derivation of the spread double layers in the case of inhomogeneous plasmas is presented. It is concluded that the hydrodynamically expected multi GeV heavy ions for 10 TW laser pulses should produce super-fast ions up to the TeV range. Further conclusions are drawn from the electrostatically measured upshifted (by 300 keV) DT fusion alphas from laser compressed plasma. An analysis of alpha spectra attempts to distinguish between different models of the stopping power in the plasmas. The analysis preliminarily arrives at a preference for the collective model. (author)

Assessment of Biomass Burning Smoke Influence on Environmental Conditions for Multi-Year Tornado Outbreaks by Combining Aerosol-Aware Microphysics and Fire Emission Constraints

Science.gov (United States)

Saide, Pablo E.; Thompson, Gregory; Eidhammer, Trude; Da Silva, Arlindo M.; Pierce, R. Bradley; Carmichael, Gregory R.

2016-01-01

We use the WRF system to study the impacts of biomass burning smoke from Central America on several tornado outbreaks occurring in the US during spring. The model is configured with an aerosol-aware microphysics parameterization capable of resolving aerosol-cloud-radiation interactions in a cost-efficient way for numerical weather prediction (NWP) applications. Primary aerosol emissions are included and smoke emissions are constrained using an inverse modeling technique and satellite-based AOD observations. Simulations turning on and off fire emissions reveal smoke presence in all tornado outbreaks being studied and show an increase in aerosol number concentrations due to smoke. However, the likelihood of occurrence and intensification of tornadoes is higher due to smoke only in cases where cloud droplet number concentration in low level clouds increases considerably in a way that modifies the environmental conditions where the tornadoes are formed (shallower cloud bases and higher low-level wind shear). Smoke absorption and vertical extent also play a role, with smoke absorption at cloud-level tending to burn-off clouds and smoke absorption above clouds resulting in an increased capping inversion. Comparing these and WRF-Chem simulations configured with a more complex representation of aerosol size and composition and different optical properties, microphysics and activation schemes, we find similarities in terms of the simulated aerosol optical depths and aerosol impacts on near-storm environments. This provides reliability on the aerosol-aware microphysics scheme as a less computationally expensive alternative to WRFChem for its use in applications such as NWP and cloud-resolving simulations.

Orientationally ordered phase produced by fully antinematic interactions: A simulation study

Science.gov (United States)

Romano, Silvano; de Matteis, Giovanni

2011-07-01

We consider here a classical model, consisting of D2h symmetric particles, whose centers of mass are associated with a three-dimensional simple-cubic lattice; the pair potential is isotropic in orientation space, and restricted to nearest neighbors. Two orthonormal triads define orientations of a pair of interacting particles; the simplest potential models proposed in the literature can be written as a linear combination involving the squares of the scalar products between corresponding unit vectors only, thus depending on three parameters, and making the interaction model rather versatile. A coupling constant with negative sign tends to keep the two interacting unit vectors parallel to each other, whereas a positive sign tends to keep them mutually orthogonal (antinematic coupling). We address here a special, extreme case of the above family, involving only antinematic couplings: more precisely, three antinematic terms whose coefficients are set to a common positive value (hence the name PPP model). The model under investigation produces a doubly degenerate pair ground state; the nearest-neighbor range of the interaction and the bipartite character of the lattice can propagate the pair ground state and increase the overall degeneracy, but without producing frustration. The model was investigated by a simplified molecular field treatment as well as by Monte Carlo simulation, whose results suggested a second-order transition to a low-temperature biaxially ordered phase; ground-state configurations producing orientational order have been selected by thermal fluctuations. The molecular field treatment also predicted a continuous transition, and was found to overestimate the transition temperature by a factor 2.

An evaluation of parent-produced video self-modeling to improve independence in an adolescent with intellectual developmental disorder and an autism spectrum disorder: a controlled case study.

Science.gov (United States)

Allen, Keith D; Vatland, Christopher; Bowen, Scott L; Burke, Raymond V

2015-07-01

We evaluated a parent-created video self-modeling (VSM) intervention to improve independence in an adolescent diagnosed with Intellectual Developmental Disorder (IDD) and Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD). In a multiple baseline design across routines, a parent and her 17-year-old daughter created self-modeling videos of three targeted routines needed for independence in the community. The parent used a tablet device with a mobile app called "VideoTote" to produce videos of the daughter performing the targeted routines. The mobile app includes a 30-s tutorial about making modeling videos. The parent and daughter produced and watched a VSM scene prior to performing each of the three routines in an analogue community setting. The adolescent showed marked, immediate, and sustained improvements in performing each routine following the production and implementation of the VSM. Performance was found to generalize to the natural community setting. Results suggest that parents can use available technology to promote community independence for transition age individuals. © The Author(s) 2015.

Statistical model to predict dry sliding wear behaviour of Aluminium-Jute bast ash particulate composite produced by stir-casting

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gambo Anthony VICTOR

2017-06-01

Full Text Available A model to predict the dry sliding wear behaviour of Aluminium-Jute bast ash particulate composites produced by double stir-casting method was developed in terms of weight fraction of jute bast ash (JBA. Experiments were designed on the basis of the Design of Experiments (DOE technique. A 2k factorial, where k is the number of variables, with central composite second-order rotatable design was used to improve the reliability of results and to reduce the size of experimentation without loss of accuracy. The factors considered in this study were sliding velocity, sliding distance, normal load and mass fraction of JBA reinforcement in the matrix. The developed regression model was validated by statistical software MINITAB-R14 and statistical tool such as analysis of variance (ANOVA. It was found that the developed regression model could be effectively used to predict the wear rate at 95% confidence level. The wear rate of cast Al-JBAp composite decreased with an increase in the mass fraction of JBA and increased with an increase of the sliding velocity, sliding distance and normal load acting on the composite specimen.

An economically viable alternative to coastal discharge of produced water

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

D'Unger, C.V.; Carr, R.S.; Chapman, D.C.

1993-01-01

The discharge of produced waters to coastal estuaries has been common practice on the Texas coast for many years as these discharges are currently exempt from NPDES permitting. A study of the active produced water discharges in Nueces Bay, Texas revealed that all eight effluents were highly toxic as determined by the sea urchin (Arbacia punctulata) fertilization and embryological development assays. An alternative to discharging produced water into coastal estuaries is the use of disposal wells. Inactive wells can be converted to produced water disposal wells. Production records for the Nueces Bay, Texas area reveal that 52% of the gas wells produce less than 100 mcf/d and 50% of the oil wells produce less than 10 b/d. Using conservative estimates, the cost of converting an inactive well to a disposal well was calculated to be $31,500 which could be paid out by a gas well producing as little as 100 mcf/d in 26 months using only 50% of the well's profit. Combining multiple leases to a single disposal well would reduce proportionately the cost to each operation. This study has demonstrated that economically viable disposal options could be achieved in the Nueces Bay area through the imaginative and cooperative formation of produced water disposal ventures. This same model could be applied to produced water discharges in other coastal areas

Search for the Standard Model Higgs boson produced in association with top quarks and decaying into bb in the ATLAS detector

CERN Document Server

Honda, Shunsuke; The ATLAS collaboration

2017-01-01

The Standard Model Higgs boson produced in association with a top-quark pair(ttbar) can permit direct measurement of the top Yukawa coupling. This poster is focused on the Higgs->bb channel with ttbar decaying into one or two electrons or muons. The analysis used pp collision data at the center of mass energy of 13 TeV, collected with the LHC-ATLAS detector in 2015-2016. The search is already limited by systematic uncertainties mostly in background modeling. In order to improve the sensitivity of the analysis, events are categorized according to their jet multiplicities and b-tagging properties. We present the latest result from the ATLAS experiment with improved techniques to discriminate signal from background dominated by ttbar+jets production.

Biological distribution of [18F-FDG] using reactor produced [18F

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sierralta, P.; Massardo, T; Gil, M.C; Gonzalez, P; Chandia, M.; Godoy, N.; Troncoso, F

2002-01-01

The animal model that relates biodistribution of a substance is fundamental prior to using it in human beings. For the evaluation of myocardial viability after a recent MI, the use of reactor produced [ 18 F]-FDG (a radiotracer usually obtained in Cyclotron) is proposed, production of which has never been attempted in our country. Specific Activities founded in the different tissues after injection of this radiotracer in an animal model were compared with those obtained by other authors with cyclotron [ 18 F]-FDG. No statistically significant differences in the critical organs were found. Hence, reactor produced [ 18 F]-FDG is a useful radiopharmaceutical in cardiac cellular metabolism assessment (author)

Olesoxime (cholest-4-en-3-one, oxime): Analgesic and neuroprotective effects in a rat model of painful peripheral neuropathy produced by the chemotherapeutic agent, paclitaxel

OpenAIRE

Xiao, Wen Hua; Zheng, Felix Y.; Bennett, Gary J.; Bordet, Thierry; Pruss, Rebecca M.

2009-01-01

Olesoxime is a small cholesterol-like molecule that was discovered in a screening program aimed at finding treatment for amyotrophic lateral sclerosis and other diseases where motor neurons degenerate. In addition to its neuroprotective and pro-regenerative effects on motor neurons in vitro and in vivo, it has been shown to have analgesic effects in rat models of painful peripheral neuropathy due to vincristine and diabetes. We used a rat model of painful peripheral neuropathy produced by the...

Relationships between Danish food producers and retail chains in four countries

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Skytte, Hans

The purpose of this paper is to present a model of relationships between food producers and retailers. The model is built on the constructivist paradigm, conceptual frameworks and an analysis of a number of companies. In this paper two conceptual frameworks are developed; one concerns the organis...

Modelling and observing urban climate in the Netherlands

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Van Hove, B.; Steeneveld, G.J.; Heusinkveld, B.; Holtslag, B.; Jacobs, C.; Ter Maat, H.; Elbers, J.; Moors, E.

2011-06-01

The main aims of the present study are: (1) to evaluate the performance of two well-known mesoscale NWP (numerical weather prediction) models coupled to a UCM (Urban Canopy Models), and (2) to develop a proper measurement strategy for obtaining meteorological data that can be used in model evaluation studies. We choose the mesoscale models WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting Model) and RAMS (Regional Atmospheric Modeling System), respectively, because the partners in the present project have a large expertise with respect to these models. In addition WRF and RAMS have been successfully used in the meteorology and climate research communities for various purposes, including weather prediction and land-atmosphere interaction research. Recently, state-of-the-art UCM's were embedded within the land surface scheme of the respective models, in order to better represent the exchange of heat, momentum, and water vapour in the urban environment. Key questions addressed here are: What is the general model performance with respect to the urban environment?; How can useful and observational data be obtained that allow sensible validation and further parameterization of the models?; and Can the models be easily modified to simulate the urban climate under Dutch climatic conditions, urban configuration and morphology? Chapter 2 reviews the available Urban Canopy Models; we discuss their theoretical basis, the different representations of the urban environment, the required input and the output. Much of the information was obtained from the Urban Surface Energy Balance: Land Surface Scheme Comparison project (PILPS URBAN, PILPS stands for Project for Inter-comparison of Land-Surface Parameterization Schemes). This project started in March 2008 and was coordinated by the Department of Geography, King's College London. In order to test the performance of our models we participated in this project. Chapter 3 discusses the main results of the first phase of PILPS URBAN. A first

An analog ensemble for short-term probabilistic solar power forecast

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Alessandrini, S.; Delle Monache, L.; Sperati, S.; Cervone, G.

2015-01-01

Highlights: • A novel method for solar power probabilistic forecasting is proposed. • The forecast accuracy does not depend on the nominal power. • The impact of climatology on forecast accuracy is evaluated. - Abstract: The energy produced by photovoltaic farms has a variable nature depending on astronomical and meteorological factors. The former are the solar elevation and the solar azimuth, which are easily predictable without any uncertainty. The amount of liquid water met by the solar radiation within the troposphere is the main meteorological factor influencing the solar power production, as a fraction of short wave solar radiation is reflected by the water particles and cannot reach the earth surface. The total cloud cover is a meteorological variable often used to indicate the presence of liquid water in the troposphere and has a limited predictability, which is also reflected on the global horizontal irradiance and, as a consequence, on solar photovoltaic power prediction. This lack of predictability makes the solar energy integration into the grid challenging. A cost-effective utilization of solar energy over a grid strongly depends on the accuracy and reliability of the power forecasts available to the Transmission System Operators (TSOs). Furthermore, several countries have in place legislation requiring solar power producers to pay penalties proportional to the errors of day-ahead energy forecasts, which makes the accuracy of such predictions a determining factor for producers to reduce their economic losses. Probabilistic predictions can provide accurate deterministic forecasts along with a quantification of their uncertainty, as well as a reliable estimate of the probability to overcome a certain production threshold. In this paper we propose the application of an analog ensemble (AnEn) method to generate probabilistic solar power forecasts (SPF). The AnEn is based on an historical set of deterministic numerical weather prediction (NWP) model

Cross-evaluation of modelled and remotely sensed surface soil moisture with in situ data in southwestern France

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

C. Albergel

2010-11-01

Full Text Available The SMOSMANIA soil moisture network in Southwestern France is used to evaluate modelled and remotely sensed soil moisture products. The surface soil moisture (SSM measured in situ at 5 cm permits to evaluate SSM from the SIM operational hydrometeorological model of Météo-France and to perform a cross-evaluation of the normalised SSM estimates derived from coarse-resolution (25 km active microwave observations from the ASCAT scatterometer instrument (C-band, onboard METOP, issued by EUMETSAT and resampled to the Discrete Global Grid (DGG, 12.5 km gridspacing by TU-Wien (Vienna University of Technology over a two year period (2007–2008. A downscaled ASCAT product at one kilometre scale is evaluated as well, together with operational soil moisture products of two meteorological services, namely the ALADIN numerical weather prediction model (NWP and the Integrated Forecasting System (IFS analysis of Météo-France and ECMWF, respectively. In addition to the operational SSM analysis of ECMWF, a second analysis using a simplified extended Kalman filter and assimilating the ASCAT SSM estimates is tested. The ECMWF SSM estimates correlate better with the in situ observations than the Météo-France products. This may be due to the higher ability of the multi-layer land surface model used at ECMWF to represent the soil moisture profile. However, the SSM derived from SIM corresponds to a thin soil surface layer and presents good correlations with ASCAT SSM estimates for the very first centimetres of soil. At ECMWF, the use of a new data assimilation technique, which is able to use the ASCAT SSM, improves the SSM and the root-zone soil moisture analyses.

Potential use of produced oil sample analysis to monitor SAGD performance

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Li, Z. [Society of Petroleum Engineers, Canadian Section, Calgary, AB (Canada)]|[Nexen Petroleum International, Calgary, AB (Canada); Wollen, C. [Society of Petroleum Engineers, Canadian Section, Calgary, AB (Canada)]|[OPTI-Nexen Inc., Calgary, AB (Canada); Yang, P.; Fustic, M. [Nexen Petroleum International, Calgary, AB (Canada)

2008-10-15

Oil viscosity and compositional gradients can affect the performance of steam injection recovery processes. In this study, reservoir simulations were conducted to investigate the effects of viscosity variation with depth on steam assisted gravity drainage (SAGD) processes and produced oil characteristics. The 2-D reservoir model consisted of a reservoir with a 40 m clean sand matrix, overtopped with interbedded shales and sand. The oil phase was comprised of 2 pseudo-components representing top and bottom bitumens. Viscosities and concentrations of the pseudo-components were calculated using linear mixing rules. Four different viscosity distribution scenarios were examined. Conceptual 3-D models were then constructed to examine the characteristics of produced oil samples in scenarios with shale barriers extending down the well directions and blocking parts of the reservoir. Results from the simulations showed that produced oil characteristics are related to the in situ profiles of reservoir flow barriers. Produced oil characteristics can be used in conjunction with oil rates, surface heave and other data to predict steam chamber development and detect the presence of baffles and barriers. The relationship between the SAGD steam chamber and variations in produced fluid characteristics were accurately characterized by the simulations. It was concluded that the approach can be used to monitor SAGD steam chamber growth. 10 refs., 1 tab., 19 figs.

Selecting elephant grass families and progenies to produce bioenergy through mixed models (REML/BLUP).

Science.gov (United States)

Rodrigues, E V; Daher, R F; Dos Santos, A; Vivas, M; Machado, J C; Gravina, G do A; de Souza, Y P; Vidal, A K; Rocha, A Dos S; Freitas, R S

2017-05-18

Brazil has great potential to produce bioenergy since it is located in a tropical region that receives high incidence of solar energy and presents favorable climatic conditions for such purpose. However, the use of bioenergy in the country is below its productivity potential. The aim of the current study was to select full-sib progenies and families of elephant grass (Pennisetum purpureum S.) to optimize phenotypes relevant to bioenergy production through mixed models (REML/BLUP). The circulating diallel-based crossing of ten elephant grass genotypes was performed. An experimental design using the randomized block methodology, with three repetitions, was set to assess both the hybrids and the parents. Each plot comprised 14-m rows, 1.40 m spacing between rows, and 1.40 m spacing between plants. The number of tillers, plant height, culm diameter, fresh biomass production, dry biomass rate, and the dry biomass production were assessed. Genetic-statistical analyses were performed through mixed models (REML/BLUP). The genetic variance in the assessed families was explained through additive genetic effects and dominance genetic effects; the dominance variance was prevalent. Families such as Capim Cana D'África x Guaçu/I.Z.2, Cameroon x Cuba-115, CPAC x Cuba-115, Cameroon x Guaçu/I.Z.2, and IAC-Campinas x CPAC showed the highest dry biomass production. The family derived from the crossing between Cana D'África and Guaçu/I.Z.2 showed the largest number of potential individuals for traits such as plant height, culm diameter, fresh biomass production, dry biomass production, and dry biomass rate. The individual 5 in the family Cana D'África x Guaçu/I.Z.2, planted in blocks 1 and 2, showed the highest dry biomass production.

Heights integrated model as instrument for simulation of hydrodynamic, radiation transport, and heat conduction phenomena of laser-produced plasma in EUV applications.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sizyuk, V.; Hassanein, A.; Morozov, V.; Sizyuk, T.; Mathematics and Computer Science

2007-01-16

The HEIGHTS integrated model has been developed as an instrument for simulation and optimization of laser-produced plasma (LPP) sources relevant to extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography. The model combines three general parts: hydrodynamics, radiation transport, and heat conduction. The first part employs a total variation diminishing scheme in the Lax-Friedrich formulation (TVD-LF); the second part, a Monte Carlo model; and the third part, implicit schemes with sparse matrix technology. All model parts consider physical processes in three-dimensional geometry. The influence of a generated magnetic field on laser plasma behavior was estimated, and it was found that this effect could be neglected for laser intensities relevant to EUV (up to {approx}10{sup 12} W/cm{sup 2}). All applied schemes were tested on analytical problems separately. Benchmark modeling of the full EUV source problem with a planar tin target showed good correspondence with experimental and theoretical data. Preliminary results are presented for tin droplet- and planar-target LPP devices. The influence of three-dimensional effects on EUV properties of source is discussed.

Application of radiosurgical techniques to produce a primate model of brain lesions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jun eKunimatsu

2015-04-01

Full Text Available Behavioral analysis of subjects with discrete brain lesions provides important information about the mechanisms of various brain functions. However, it is generally difficult to experimentally produce discrete lesions in deep brain structures. Here we show that a radiosurgical technique, which is used as an alternative treatment for brain tumors and vascular malformations, is applicable to create non-invasive lesions in experimental animals for the research in systems neuroscience. We delivered highly focused radiation (130–150 Gy at ISO center to the frontal eye field of macaque monkeys using a clinical linear accelerator (LINAC. The effects of irradiation were assessed by analyzing oculomotor performance along with magnetic resonance (MR images before and up to 8 months following irradiation. In parallel with tissue edema indicated by MR images, deficits in saccadic and smooth pursuit eye movements were observed during several days following irradiation. Although initial signs of oculomotor deficits disappeared within a month, damage to the tissue and impaired eye movements gradually developed during the course of the subsequent 6 months. Postmortem histological examinations showed necrosis and hemorrhages within a large area of the white matter and, to a lesser extent, in the adjacent gray matter, which was centered at the irradiated target. These results indicated that the LINAC system was useful for making brain lesions in experimental animals, while the suitable radiation parameters to generate more focused lesions need to be further explored. We propose the use of a radiosurgical technique for establishing animal models of brain lesions, and discuss the possible uses of this technique for functional neurosurgical treatments in humans.

Risk assessment of Salmonella in Danish meatballs produced in the catering sector

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Møller, Cleide Oliveira de Almeida; Nauta, Maarten; Schaffner, Donald W.

2015-01-01

A modular process risk model approach was used to assess health risks associated with Salmonella spp. after consumption of the Danish meatball product (frikadeller) produced with fresh pork in a catering unit. Meatball production and consumption were described as a series of processes (modules......), starting from 1.3 kg meat pieces through conversion to 70 g meatballs, followed by a dose response model to assess the risk of illness from consumption of these meatballs. Changes in bacterial prevalence, concentration, and unit size were modelled within each module. The risk assessment was built using...... observational data and models that were specific for Salmonella spp. in meatballs produced in the catering sector. Danish meatballs are often pan-fried followed by baking in an oven before consumption, in order to reach the core temperature of 75 degrees C recommended by the Danish Food Safety Authority...

Characterization of volatile compounds produced by Lactobacillus helveticus strains in a hard cheese model.

Science.gov (United States)

Cuffia, Facundo; Bergamini, Carina V; Wolf, Irma V; Hynes, Erica R; Perotti, María C

2018-01-01

Starter cultures of Lactobacillus helveticus used in hard cooked cheeses play an important role in flavor development. In this work, we studied the capacity of three strains of L. helveticus, two autochthonous (Lh138 and Lh209) and one commercial (LhB02), to grow and to produce volatile compounds in a hard cheese extract. Bacterial counts, pH, profiles of organic acids, carbohydrates, and volatile compounds were analyzed during incubation of extracts for 14 days at 37 ℃. Lactobacilli populations were maintained at 10 6 CFU ml -1 for Lh138, while decreases of approx. 2 log orders were found for LhB02 and Lh209. Both Lh209 and LhB02 slightly increased the acetic acid content whereas mild increase in lactic acid was produced by Lh138. The patterns of volatiles were dependent on the strain which reflect their distinct enzymatic machineries: LhB02 and Lh209 produced a greater diversity of compounds, while Lh138 was the least producer strain. Extracts inoculated with LhB02 and Lh 209 were characterized by ketones, esters, alcohols, aldehydes, and acids, whereas in the extracts with Lh138 the main compounds belonged to aromatic, aldehydes, and ketones groups. Therefore, Lh209 and LhB02 could represent the best cheese starters to improve and intensify the flavor, and even a starter composed by combinations of LhB02 or Lh209 with Lh138 could also be a strategy to diversify cheese flavor.

Quality prediction of a leached produced in a sanitary landfills

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Agudelo Garcia, Ruben Alberto; Garcia R, Francisco Fernando; Rivera Mesa, Carolina

2002-01-01

This paper presents a mathematical model developed with the purpose of predicting the concentration of pollutants in the leached produced by the biological degradation of the solid wastes disposed in sanitary landfills. The model consists in a kinetic equation of first level, able to describe the degradation of the organic matter being the solid residuals. This model was calibrated using the results obtained from six laboratory scale lysimeters operated under different conditions. The model predicted the concentration of the pollutants in the leached with an accuracy of 94%

Dominance of IMP-4-Producing Enterobacter cloacae among Carbapenemase-Producing Enterobacteriaceae in Australia

Science.gov (United States)

Townell, Nicola; Nimmo, Graeme R.; George, Narelle M.; Robson, Jennifer; Vohra, Renu; Davis, Louise; Heney, Claire; Paterson, David L.

2015-01-01

The prevalence of carbapenemase-producing Enterobacteriaceae (CPE) has been increasing worldwide. blaIMP has been reported to be the predominant carbapenemase-encoding gene within Enterobacteriaceae in Australia. However, there are limited data currently available on CPE from Queensland, Australia. A total of 58 CPE isolates were isolated between July 2009 and March 2014 from Queensland hospitals. The clonality of isolates was determined by Diversilab repetitive sequence-based PCR. The isolates were investigated for the resistance mechanisms carbapenemase, extended-spectrum β-lactamase, and AmpC β-lactamase and for aminoglycoside resistance and plasmid-mediated quinolone resistance genes by PCR. The plasmid types associated with carbapenemase-encoding genes were characterized. The majority of the CPE were Enterobacter cloacae (n = 29). The majority of Queensland CPE isolates were IMP producers and comprised 11 species (n = 48). Nine NDM-producing Enterobacteriaceae were identified. One NDM-producing Klebsiella pneumoniae isolate coproduced OXA-48. One K. pneumoniae isolate was an OXA-181 producer. The incidence of IMP producers increased significantly in 2013. blaIMP-4 was found in all IMP-producing isolates. blaTEM, qnrB, and aacA4 were common among IMP-4 producers. The HI2 (67%) and L/M (21%) replicons were associated with blaIMP-4. All HI2 plasmids were of sequence type 1 (ST1). All but one of the NDM producers possessed blaCTX-M-15. The 16S rRNA methylase genes found among NDM producers were armA, rmtB, rmtC, and rmtF. The substantial increase in the prevalence of CPE in Queensland has been associated mainly with the emergence E. cloacae strains possessing HI2 plasmids carrying blaIMP-4 over the past 2 years. The importation of NDM producers and/or OXA-48-like producers in patients also contributed to the increased emergence of CPE. PMID:25918153

Evaluation of NO{sub x} produced by storms

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Laroche, P; Mary, C; Defer, E [Office National d` Etudes et de Recherches Aerospatiales (ONERA), 92 - Chatillon (France)

1998-12-31

The evaluations of NO{sub x} production by lightning within storms are commonly based on modeling, laboratory and field experiments. To apply laboratory experiment and physical modeling to observed storms or at global scale, a schematic representation of a lightning flash is used. The actually observed 3D structure of a lightning flash is described, and the NO{sub x} production process is evaluated. Case studies are presented of actual storm observation, and the evaluation of NO{sub x} produced is compared to what could be derived from the literature. (author) 12 refs.

Evaluation of NO{sub x} produced by storms

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Laroche, P.; Mary, C.; Defer, E. [Office National d`Etudes et de Recherches Aerospatiales (ONERA), 92 - Chatillon (France)

1997-12-31

The evaluations of NO{sub x} production by lightning within storms are commonly based on modeling, laboratory and field experiments. To apply laboratory experiment and physical modeling to observed storms or at global scale, a schematic representation of a lightning flash is used. The actually observed 3D structure of a lightning flash is described, and the NO{sub x} production process is evaluated. Case studies are presented of actual storm observation, and the evaluation of NO{sub x} produced is compared to what could be derived from the literature. (author) 12 refs.

Economic feasibility of producing sweet sorghum as an ethanol feedstock in the southeastern United States

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Linton, Joseph A.; Miller, J. Corey; Little, Randall D.; Petrolia, Daniel R.; Coble, Keith H.

2011-01-01

This study examines the feasibility of producing sweet sorghum (Sorghum bicolor (L.) Moench) as an ethanol feedstock in the southeastern United States through representative counties in Mississippi. We construct enterprise budgets along with estimates of transportation costs to estimate sweet sorghum producers' breakeven costs for producing and delivering sweet sorghum biomass. This breakeven cost for the sweet sorghum producer is used to estimate breakeven costs for the ethanol producer based on wholesale ethanol price, production costs, and transportation and marketing costs. Stochastic models are developed to estimate profits for sweet sorghum and competing crops in two representative counties in Mississippi, with sweet sorghum consistently yielding losses in both counties. -- Highlights: → We examine the economic feasibility of sweet sorghum as an ethanol feedstock. → We construct enterprise budgets along with estimates of transportation costs. → We estimate breakeven costs for producing and delivering sweet sorghum biomass. → Stochastic models determine profits for sweet sorghum in two Mississippi counties.

Producing physically consistent and bias free extreme precipitation events over the Switzerland: Bridging gaps between meteorology and impact models

Science.gov (United States)

José Gómez-Navarro, Juan; Raible, Christoph C.; Blumer, Sandro; Martius, Olivia; Felder, Guido

2016-04-01

Extreme precipitation episodes, although rare, are natural phenomena that can threat human activities, especially in areas densely populated such as Switzerland. Their relevance demands the design of public policies that protect public assets and private property. Therefore, increasing the current understanding of such exceptional situations is required, i.e. the climatic characterisation of their triggering circumstances, severity, frequency, and spatial distribution. Such increased knowledge shall eventually lead us to produce more reliable projections about the behaviour of these events under ongoing climate change. Unfortunately, the study of extreme situations is hampered by the short instrumental record, which precludes a proper characterization of events with return period exceeding few decades. This study proposes a new approach that allows studying storms based on a synthetic, but physically consistent database of weather situations obtained from a long climate simulation. Our starting point is a 500-yr control simulation carried out with the Community Earth System Model (CESM). In a second step, this dataset is dynamically downscaled with the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) to a final resolution of 2 km over the Alpine area. However, downscaling the full CESM simulation at such high resolution is infeasible nowadays. Hence, a number of case studies are previously selected. This selection is carried out examining the precipitation averaged in an area encompassing Switzerland in the ESM. Using a hydrological criterion, precipitation is accumulated in several temporal windows: 1 day, 2 days, 3 days, 5 days and 10 days. The 4 most extreme events in each category and season are selected, leading to a total of 336 days to be simulated. The simulated events are affected by systematic biases that have to be accounted before this data set can be used as input in hydrological models. Thus, quantile mapping is used to remove such biases. For this task

Plant-wide Control Strategy for Improving Produced Water Treatment

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Yang, Zhenyu; Pedersen, Simon; Løhndorf, Petar Durdevic

2016-01-01

This work focuses on investigation and development of an innovative Produced Water Treatment (PWT) technology for offshore oil & gas production by employing the model-based plant-wide control strategy. The key contributions lie in two folds: (i) the advanced anti-slug analysis and control...

Stochastic multiobjective self-scheduling of a power producer in joint energy and reserves markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vahidinasab, V.; Jadid, S.

2010-01-01

This paper presents a stochastic multiobjective model for self-scheduling of a power producer which participates in the day-ahead joint energy and reserves markets. The objective of a power producer is to compromise the conflicting objectives of payoff maximization and gaseous emissions minimization when committing its generation of thermal units. The proposed schedule will be used by the power producers to decide on emission quota arbitrage opportunities and for strategic bidding to the energy and reserves market. The paper analyzes a scenario-based multiobjective model in which random distributions, such as price forecasting inaccuracies as well as forced outage of generating units are modeled as scenarios tree using a combined fuzzy c-mean/Monte-Carlo simulation (FCM/MCS) method. With the above procedure the stochastic multiobjective self-scheduling problem is converted into corresponding deterministic problems. Then a multiobjective mathematical programming (MMP) approach based on ε-constraint method is implemented for each deterministic scenario. Piecewise linearized fuel and emission cost functions are applied for computational efficiency and the model is formulated as a mixed-integer programming (MIP) problem. Numerical simulations for a power producer with 21 thermal units are discussed to demonstrate the performance of the proposed approach in increasing expected payoffs by adjusting the emission quota arbitrage opportunities. (author)

Producing charcoal from wastes

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Pogorelov, V.A.

1983-01-01

Experimental works to use wood wastes for producing charcoal are examined, which are being conducted in the Sverdlovsk assembly and adjustment administration of Soyuzorglestekhmontazh. A wasteless prototype installation for producing fine charcoal is described, along with its subsequent briqueting, which is made on the basis of units which are series produced by the factories of the country. The installation includes subassemblies for preparing and drying the raw material and for producing the charcoal briquets. In the opinion of specialists, the charcoal produced from the wastes may be effectively used in ferrous and nonferrous metallurgy and in the production of pipes.

Sustainable production of broiler chicken and laying hen: bibliographical review and proposal of a model for small producers

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Diana Milena Soler F.

2011-05-01

Full Text Available The peasant production of broiler chicken and laying hens in the world is wide, being the developing countries which most productions of this type arise. 'ese backyard holdings play an important role as they ensure the consumption of protein products and a subsistence economy to poor families. Due to the low number of technical and scientific studies on these extensive systems in the department of Boyacá, this work aimed to establish by general literature review the world, national and regional state of the art in the production of broiler chicken and alternatively laying hen, and as specific objectives, to produce an analysis of the diferent managements and plans and propose a production model that suits the needs of small producers. the results of the world’s state of the art showed that all countries have a variety of peasant farms, but there is a clear path to commercialization of these poultry farming products, renowned for their safety and quality of nutrients. In some municipalities in Boyacá, these farmers have favorable production systems and yields earnings due to the reduced production costs by the introduction of crop products and recyclable materials, and also have no significant environmental impacts, however, health management is poor and animal feeding starts to rely on concentrated foods.

Comparison of penumbra regions produced by ancient Gamma knife model C and Gamma ART 6000 using Monte Carlo MCNP6 simulation.

Science.gov (United States)

Banaee, Nooshin; Asgari, Sepideh; Nedaie, Hassan Ali

2018-07-01

The accuracy of penumbral measurements in radiotherapy is pivotal because dose planning computers require accurate data to adequately modeling the beams, which in turn are used to calculate patient dose distributions. Gamma knife is a non-invasive intracranial technique based on principles of the Leksell stereotactic system for open deep brain surgeries, invented and developed by Professor Lars Leksell. The aim of this study is to compare the penumbra widths of Leksell Gamma Knife model C and Gamma ART 6000. Initially, the structure of both systems were simulated by using Monte Carlo MCNP6 code and after validating the accuracy of simulation, beam profiles of different collimators were plotted. MCNP6 beam profile calculations showed that the penumbra values of Leksell Gamma knife model C and Gamma ART 6000 for 18, 14, 8 and 4 mm collimators are 9.7, 7.9, 4.3, 2.6 and 8.2, 6.9, 3.6, 2.4, respectively. The results of this study showed that since Gamma ART 6000 has larger solid angle in comparison with Gamma Knife model C, it produces better beam profile penumbras than Gamma Knife model C in the direct plane. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Consumers and Producers

NARCIS (Netherlands)

E. Maira (Elisa)

2018-01-01

markdownabstractIn the last few decades, advances in information and communication technology have dramatically changed the way consumers and producers interact in the marketplace. The Internet and social media have torn down the information barrier between producers and consumers, leading to

On the role of convective systems over the northwest Pacific and monsoon activity over the Indian subcontinent

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

RameshKumar, M.R.; Babu, A; Reason, C.

been examined in relation to breaks in monsoon conditions over the Indian sub-continent during contrasting monsoon years. A see-saw nature of convection between the NWP and north Indian Ocean was found during the years with excess monsoon rainfall...

The sensitivity to the microphysical schemes on the skill of ...

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

Devanil Choudhury

2017-06-15

Jun 15, 2017 ... replacement of implicit cumulus parameterization schemes with explicit bulk schemes in NWP as part of a community effort to improve .... where haversin is the haversine function: haversin (θ) = sin. 2. (θ/2) = 1 − cos (θ)/2. (2).

33 CFR 330.5 - Issuing, modifying, suspending, or revoking nationwide permits and authorizations.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

...; progress inspections of individual activities occurring under an NWP; cumulative adverse environmental..., the extent to which asserting discretionary authority would adversely affect plans, investments, and... matter. After completion of the meeting (or within a reasonable period of time after suspending the...

Microstructure and mechanical behavior of ODS and non-ODS Fe–14Cr model alloys produced by spark plasma sintering

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Auger, M.A.; Castro, V. de; Leguey, T.; Muñoz, A.; Pareja, R.

2013-01-01

In this work the spark plasma sintering (SPS) technique has been explored as an alternative consolidation route for producing ultra-fine grained Fe–14Cr model alloys containing a dispersion of oxide nanoparticles. Elemental powders of Fe and Cr, and nanosized Y 2 O 3 powder have been mechanically alloyed in a planetary ball mill and rapidly sintered in a spark plasma furnace. Two alloys, with nominal compositions Fe–14%Cr and Fe–14%Cr–0.3%Y 2 O 3 (wt.%), have been fabricated and their microstructure and mechanical properties investigated. The results have been compared with those obtained for other powder metallurgy processed alloys of the same composition but consolidated by hot isostatic pressing. The SPS technique under the present conditions has produced Fe–14Cr materials that apparently exhibit different microstructures yielding inferior mechanical properties than the counterpart material consolidated by hot isostatic pressing. Although the presence of a dispersion of Y-rich particles is evident, the oxide dispersion strengthened (ODS) Fe–14Cr alloy consolidated by SPS exhibits poor tensile properties. The extensive decoration of the powder particle surfaces with Cr-rich precipitates and the residual porosity appear to be responsible for the impaired properties of this ODS alloy consolidated by SPS

Microstructure and mechanical behavior of ODS and non-ODS Fe–14Cr model alloys produced by spark plasma sintering

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Auger, M.A.; Castro, V. de [Departamento de Física, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid, 28911 Leganés (Spain); Leguey, T., E-mail: leguey@fis.uc3m.es [Departamento de Física, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid, 28911 Leganés (Spain); Muñoz, A.; Pareja, R. [Departamento de Física, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid, 28911 Leganés (Spain)

2013-05-15

In this work the spark plasma sintering (SPS) technique has been explored as an alternative consolidation route for producing ultra-fine grained Fe–14Cr model alloys containing a dispersion of oxide nanoparticles. Elemental powders of Fe and Cr, and nanosized Y{sub 2}O{sub 3} powder have been mechanically alloyed in a planetary ball mill and rapidly sintered in a spark plasma furnace. Two alloys, with nominal compositions Fe–14%Cr and Fe–14%Cr–0.3%Y{sub 2}O{sub 3} (wt.%), have been fabricated and their microstructure and mechanical properties investigated. The results have been compared with those obtained for other powder metallurgy processed alloys of the same composition but consolidated by hot isostatic pressing. The SPS technique under the present conditions has produced Fe–14Cr materials that apparently exhibit different microstructures yielding inferior mechanical properties than the counterpart material consolidated by hot isostatic pressing. Although the presence of a dispersion of Y-rich particles is evident, the oxide dispersion strengthened (ODS) Fe–14Cr alloy consolidated by SPS exhibits poor tensile properties. The extensive decoration of the powder particle surfaces with Cr-rich precipitates and the residual porosity appear to be responsible for the impaired properties of this ODS alloy consolidated by SPS.

Biologically produced sulfur

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kleinjan, W.E.; Keizer, de A.; Janssen, A.J.H.

2003-01-01

Sulfur compound oxidizing bacteria produce sulfur as an intermediate in the oxidation of hydrogen sulfide to sulfate. Sulfur produced by these microorganisms can be stored in sulfur globules, located either inside or outside the cell. Excreted sulfur globules are colloidal particles which are

Coupled Data Assimilation for Integrated Earth System Analysis and Prediction: Goals, Challenges, and Recommendations

Science.gov (United States)

Penny, Stephen G.; Akella, Santha; Buehner, Mark; Chevallier, Matthieu; Counillon, Francois; Draper, Clara; Frolov, Sergey; Fujii, Yosuke; Karspeck, Alicia; Kumar, Arun

2017-01-01

The purpose of this report is to identify fundamental issues for coupled data assimilation (CDA), such as gaps in science and limitations in forecasting systems, in order to provide guidance to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) on how to facilitate more rapid progress internationally. Coupled Earth system modeling provides the opportunity to extend skillful atmospheric forecasts beyond the traditional two-week barrier by extracting skill from low-frequency state components such as the land, ocean, and sea ice. More generally, coupled models are needed to support seamless prediction systems that span timescales from weather, subseasonal to seasonal (S2S), multiyear, and decadal. Therefore, initialization methods are needed for coupled Earth system models, either applied to each individual component (called Weakly Coupled Data Assimilation - WCDA) or applied the coupled Earth system model as a whole (called Strongly Coupled Data Assimilation - SCDA). Using CDA, in which model forecasts and potentially the state estimation are performed jointly, each model domain benefits from observations in other domains either directly using error covariance information known at the time of the analysis (SCDA), or indirectly through flux interactions at the model boundaries (WCDA). Because the non-atmospheric domains are generally under-observed compared to the atmosphere, CDA provides a significant advantage over single-domain analyses. Next, we provide a synopsis of goals, challenges, and recommendations to advance CDA: Goals: (a) Extend predictive skill beyond the current capability of NWP (e.g. as demonstrated by improving forecast skill scores), (b) produce physically consistent initial conditions for coupled numerical prediction systems and reanalyses (including consistent fluxes at the domain interfaces), (c) make best use of existing observations by allowing observations from each domain to influence and improve the full earth system analysis, (d) develop a robust

Very little in situ produced radiocarbon retained in accumulating Antarctic ice

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kemp, W.J.M. van der; Alderliesten, C.; Borg, K. van der; Holmlund, P.; Jong, A.F.M. de; Karloef, L.; Lamers, R.A.N.; Oerlemans, J.; Thomassen, M.; Wal, R.S.W. van de

2000-01-01

Ice samples from Dronning Maud Land, Antarctica, were analyzed for 14 CO 2 and 14 CO by accelerator mass spectrometry. Only a small amount (∼2%) of in situ produced radiocarbon was detected. The calibrated radiocarbon ages, corrected for in situ produced 14 C, are in fair agreement with age estimates obtained from stratigraphical methods added to a gas inclusion model. The ages of the entrapped air range from recent to ca. 1200 AD

Produced water in mature onshore basins: a systematic model for management and decision making; Agua produzida em bacias terrestres maduras: um roteiro sistematizado para gerencimanro e tomada de decisao

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Vieira, Victor Menezes; Venancio, Fabricio de Queiroz [Universidade Federal da Bahia (IGEO/UFBA), Salvador, BA (Brazil). Inst. de Geociencias; Ferreira, Doneivan F. [Universidade Federal da Bahia (UFBA), BA (Brazil)

2012-07-01

In the production process oil is common be extracted from the oil well gas and associated formation water. Their proportions depending on the characteristics of the reservoir and the recovery method used. The produced water is a complex matrix. The parameters and the concentration may vary depending on the original tank. Given the exciting oil discoveries in the Pre Sal and the expectation of increasing volumes of oil, Brazil will need to intensify efforts to find solutions to the challenge of managing produced water, including developing techniques that reduce the volumes produced. Additionally, given the expectation of there habilitation of inactive areas with marginal accumulations and prolonging the life of mature fields, are expected increasing volumes of produced water. The industry now has some of this water management techniques, however, depends on the use of these technical factors, economic, environmental and regulatory requirements. This Applied Research paper seeks, through the systematization of several variables considered critical, contribute to the solution of this important industry challenge. The paper provides an overview of the volumes of water produced in the country, providing an overview of domestic water-oil ratio. The paper presents and discusses a systematic roadmap for managing the water produced in terrestrial productions, serving as a model containing assumptions and minimum requirements to assist operators and regulators in making decisions. The proposed roadmap takes into account the main assumptions about managerial decisions on a case by analyzing the critical aspects of each step. It analyzes the main possibilities of water management in accordance with predefined critical variables, providing a conceptual model of decision making. (author)

Application of radiosurgical techniques to produce a primate model of brain lesions

OpenAIRE

Kunimatsu, Jun; Miyamoto, Naoki; Ishikawa, Masayori; Shirato, Hiroki; Tanaka, Masaki

2015-01-01

Behavioral analysis of subjects with discrete brain lesions provides important information about the mechanisms of various brain functions. However, it is generally difficult to experimentally produce discrete lesions in deep brain structures. Here we show that a radiosurgical technique, which is used as an alternative treatment for brain tumors and vascular malformations, is applicable to create non-invasive lesions in experimental animals for the research in systems neuroscience. We deliver...

Forward charge distributions associated with hadronically produced J/psi particles

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Budd, H.S.

1983-01-01

We have measured the forward charge as a function of x/sub F/ of the psi for events produced by 225 Gev/c π-Be interactions. The forward charge is the average difference between the number of positive hadrons and negative hadrons produced in the forward hemisphere. The standard Drell-Yan model predicts that the forward charge should become less negative as the x/sub F/ of the J/psi increases. The measured forward charge becomes more negative as the x/sub F/ of the J/psi increases although it is consistent with being flat as a function of x/sub F/. Hence the data is not consistent with any Drell-Yan type model which assumes the forward charge is not strongly dependent on the hadronic energy left over after the J/psi is formed. 45 references

Decoherence effect in neutrinos produced in microquasar jets

Science.gov (United States)

Mosquera, M. E.; Civitarese, O.

2018-04-01

We study the effect of decoherence upon the neutrino spectra produced in microquasar jets. In order to analyse the precession of the polarization vector of neutrinos we have calculated its time evolution by solving the corresponding equations of motion, and by assuming two different scenarios, namely: (i) the mixing between two active neutrinos, and (ii) the mixing between one active and one sterile neutrino. The results of the calculations corresponding to these scenarios show that the onset of decoherence does not depends on the activation of neutrino-neutrino interactions when realistic values of the coupling are used in the calculations. We discuss also the case of neutrinos produced in windy microquasars and compare the results which those obtained with more conventional models of microquasars.

PENERAPAN LOGIKA FUZZY UNTUK MEMPREDIKSI CUACA HARIAN DI BANJARBARU

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Uli Mahanani

2015-02-01

Full Text Available Information about the weather is very important because the weather is one of the factors to support the smooth operation and human activities. Along with the development of science and technology, the weather can be predicted by methods based expertise. One method based expertise that can be used to predict the weather is fuzzy logic. Fuzzy logic is a system built by definition, ways of working and a clear description. This study provides a review of daily weather prediction in Banjarbaru using input data of maximum air temperature, air humidity average daily, 24 hours a pressure difference, and product Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP humidity above a layer of 850 mb, 700 mb and 500 mb. The prediction model is determined by the type of fuzzy logic method Mamdani which will produce output in the form of weather predictionweather conditions in Banjarbaru by category sunny, cloudy, slight rain, moderate rain, and heavy rain. The verification results January 2013 until September 2014 showed the smallest verification value is 56.5% and the value of the largest verification is 88.3%. On average verification in January 2013 to September 2014 was 70.1%. Verification results obtained show that the predicted results with fuzzy logic in this study can be declared fit for use as a daily weather prediction models in Banjarbaru.

Finite element method (FEM) model of the mechanical stress on phospholipid membranes from shock waves produced in nanosecond electric pulses (nsEP)

Science.gov (United States)

Barnes, Ronald; Roth, Caleb C.; Shadaram, Mehdi; Beier, Hope; Ibey, Bennett L.

2015-03-01

The underlying mechanism(s) responsible for nanoporation of phospholipid membranes by nanosecond pulsed electric fields (nsEP) remains unknown. The passage of a high electric field through a conductive medium creates two primary contributing factors that may induce poration: the electric field interaction at the membrane and the shockwave produced from electrostriction of a polar submersion medium exposed to an electric field. Previous work has focused on the electric field interaction at the cell membrane, through such models as the transport lattice method. Our objective is to model the shock wave cell membrane interaction induced from the density perturbation formed at the rising edge of a high voltage pulse in a polar liquid resulting in a shock wave propagating away from the electrode toward the cell membrane. Utilizing previous data from cell membrane mechanical parameters, and nsEP generated shockwave parameters, an acoustic shock wave model based on the Helmholtz equation for sound pressure was developed and coupled to a cell membrane model with finite-element modeling in COMSOL. The acoustic structure interaction model was developed to illustrate the harmonic membrane displacements and stresses resulting from shockwave and membrane interaction based on Hooke's law. Poration is predicted by utilizing membrane mechanical breakdown parameters including cortical stress limits and hydrostatic pressure gradients.

The Core Interaction of Platforms: How Startups Connect Users and Producers

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Heidi M. E. Korhonen

2017-09-01

Full Text Available The platform economy is disrupting innovation while presenting both opportunities and challenges for startups. Platforms support value creation between multiple participant groups, and this operationalization of an ecosystem’s value co-creation represents the “core interaction” of a platform. This article focuses on that core interaction and studies how startups connect producers and users in value-creating core interaction through digital platforms. The study is based on an analysis of 29 cases of platform startups interviewed at a leading European startup event. The studied startups were envisioning even millions of users and hundreds or thousands of producers co-creating value on their platforms. In such platform businesses, our results highlight the importance of attracting a large user pool, providing novel services to those users, offering a new market for producers, supporting the core interaction in various ways, and utilizing elements of the platform canvas – an adaptation of the business model canvas, which we have accommodated for platform-based business models – to accomplish these goals.

Fresh produce consumption and the association between frequency of food shopping, car access, and distance to supermarkets

Science.gov (United States)

Gustat, Jeanette; O'Malley, Keelia; Luckett, Brian G.; Johnson, Carolyn C.

2015-01-01

Background Fresh fruit and vegetables are important components of a healthy diet. Distance to a supermarket has been associated with the ability to access fresh produce. Methods A randomly sampled telephone survey was conducted with the main shopper for 3000 households in New Orleans, Louisiana in 2011. Individuals were asked where and how often they shopped for groceries, frequency of consumption of a variety of foods, and whether they had access to a car. Bivariate models assessed the relationship between four outcomes: car access, distance to the store patronized by the respondent, number of monthly shopping trips, and daily servings of produce. Structural equation modeling (SEM) was used to distinguish direct and indirect effects. Results In bivariate models, car access was positively associated with number of shopping trips and produce consumption while distance was inversely associated with shopping trips. In SEM models, produce consumption was not associated with car access or distance, but to the number of monthly shopping trips. Conclusion The frequency of shopping is associated with car access but a further distance deters it. Access to stores closer to the shopper may promote more frequent shopping and consumption of produce. PMID:26844049

Experimental mouse model of optic neuritis with inflammatory demyelination produced by passive transfer of neuromyelitis optica-immunoglobulin G

Science.gov (United States)

2014-01-01

Background Although optic neuritis (ON) is a defining feature of neuromyelitis optica (NMO), appropriate animal models of NMO ON are lacking. Most NMO patients are seropositive for immunoglobulin G autoantibodies (NMO-IgG) against the astrocyte water channel aquaporin-4 (AQP4). Methods Several approaches were tested to develop a robust, passive-transfer mouse model of NMO ON, including NMO-IgG and complement delivery by: (i) retrobulbar infusion; (ii) intravitreal injection; (iii) a single intracranial injection near the optic chiasm; and (iv) 3-days continuous intracranial infusion near the optic chiasm. Results Little ON or retinal pathology was seen using approaches (i) to (iii). Using approach (iv), however, optic nerves showed characteristic NMO pathology, with loss of AQP4 and glial fibrillary acidic protein immunoreactivity, granulocyte and macrophage infiltration, deposition of activated complement, demyelination and axonal injury. Even more extensive pathology was created in mice lacking complement inhibitor protein CD59, or using a genetically modified NMO-IgG with enhanced complement effector function, including significant loss of retinal ganglion cells. In control studies, optic nerve pathology was absent in treated AQP4-deficient mice, or in wild-type mice receiving control (non-NMO) IgG and complement. Conclusion Passive transfer of NMO-IgG and complement by continuous infusion near the optic chiasm in mice is sufficient to produce ON with characteristic NMO pathology. The mouse model of NMO ON should be useful in further studies of NMO pathogenesis mechanisms and therapeutics. PMID:24468108

Transverse momentum spectra of the produced hadrons at SPS

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

2014-04-30

Apr 30, 2014 ... The transverse momentum spectra of the produced hadrons have been compared to a model, which is based on the assumption that a nucleus–nucleus collision is a superposition of isotropically decaying thermal sources at a given freeze-out temperature. The freeze-out temperature in nucleus–nucleus ...

Modeling the Aerodynamic Lift Produced by Oscillating Airfoils at Low Reynolds Number

OpenAIRE

Khalid, Muhammad Saif Ullah; Akhtar, Imran

2014-01-01

For present study, setting Strouhal Number (St) as control parameter, numerical simulations for flow past oscillating NACA-0012 airfoil at 1,000 Reynolds Numbers (Re) are performed. Temporal profiles of unsteady forces; lift and thrust, and their spectral analysis clearly indicate the solution to be a period-1 attractor for low Strouhal numbers. This study reveals that aerodynamic forces produced by plunging airfoil are independent of initial kinematic conditions of airfoil that proves the ex...

For how long can we predict the weather? - Insights into atmospheric predictability from global convection-allowing simulations

Science.gov (United States)

Judt, Falko

2017-04-01

A tremendous increase in computing power has facilitated the advent of global convection-resolving numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. Although this technological breakthrough allows for the seamless prediction of weather from local to global scales, the predictability of multiscale weather phenomena in these models is not very well known. To address this issue, we conducted a global high-resolution (4-km) predictability experiment using the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS), a state-of-the-art global NWP model developed at the National Center for Atmospheric Research. The goals of this experiment are to investigate error growth from convective to planetary scales and to quantify the intrinsic, scale-dependent predictability limits of atmospheric motions. The globally uniform resolution of 4 km allows for the explicit treatment of organized deep moist convection, alleviating grave limitations of previous predictability studies that either used high-resolution limited-area models or global simulations with coarser grids and cumulus parameterization. Error growth is analyzed within the context of an "identical twin" experiment setup: the error is defined as the difference between a 20-day long "nature run" and a simulation that was perturbed with small-amplitude noise, but is otherwise identical. It is found that in convectively active regions, errors grow by several orders of magnitude within the first 24 h ("super-exponential growth"). The errors then spread to larger scales and begin a phase of exponential growth after 2-3 days when contaminating the baroclinic zones. After 16 days, the globally averaged error saturates—suggesting that the intrinsic limit of atmospheric predictability (in a general sense) is about two weeks, which is in line with earlier estimates. However, error growth rates differ between the tropics and mid-latitudes as well as between the troposphere and stratosphere, highlighting that atmospheric predictability is a complex

Producing metallurgic coke

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Abe, T.; Isida, K.; Vada, Y.

1982-11-18

A mixture of power producing coals with coal briquets of varying composition is proposed for coking in horizontal chamber furnaces. The briquets are produced from petroleum coke, coal fines or semicoke, which make up less than 27 percent of the mixture to be briquetted and coals with a standard coking output of volatile substances and coals with high maximal Gizeler fluidity. The ratio of these coals in the mixture is 0.6 to 2.1 or 18 to 32 percent, respectively. Noncaking or poorly caking coals are used as the power producing coals. The hardness of the obtained coke is DJ15-30 = 90.5 to 92.7 percent.

Formation, separation and detection of evaporation residues produced in complete fusion reactions

CERN Document Server

Sagaidak, R N

2015-01-01

Some aspects of formation, separation and detection of evaporation residues (ERs) produced in complete fusion reactions induced by accelerated heavy ions are considered. These reactions allow to obtain heavy neutron-deficient nuclei and to study their properties. The statistical model analysis of the production cross sections for these nuclei obtained in a wide range of their neutron numbers allows to trace the changes in their macroscopic properties such as fission barriers. The fusion probability of massive projectile and target nuclei is of interest. Empirical estimates of this value allow to verify the predictions of theoretical models for the optimal ways of synthesis of unknown nuclei. Some peculiarities in the separation and detection of ERs in experiments are briefly considered by the example of the Ra ERs produced in the 12 C+Pb reactions. The reliable cross sections for ERs produced in very asymmetric projectile-target combination, such as 12 C+Pb, are important for the em...

Challenges and potential solutions for European coastal ocean modelling

Science.gov (United States)

She, Jun; Stanev, Emil

2017-04-01

Coastal operational oceanography is a science and technological platform to integrate and transform the outcomes in marine monitoring, new knowledge generation and innovative technologies into operational information products and services in the coastal ocean. It has been identified as one of the four research priorities by EuroGOOS (She et al. 2016). Coastal modelling plays a central role in such an integration and transformation. A next generation coastal ocean forecasting system should have following features: i) being able to fully exploit benefits from future observations, ii) generate meaningful products in finer scales e.g., sub-mesoscale and in estuary-coast-sea continuum, iii) efficient parallel computing and model grid structure, iv) provide high quality forecasts as forcing to NWP and coastal climate models, v) resolving correctly inter-basin and inter-sub-basin water exchange, vi) resolving synoptic variability and predictability in marine ecosystems, e.g., for algae bloom, vi) being able to address critical and relevant issues in coastal applications, e.g., marine spatial planning, maritime safety, marine pollution protection, disaster prevention, offshore wind energy, climate change adaptation and mitigation, ICZM (integrated coastal zone management), the WFD (Water Framework Directive), and the MSFD (Marine Strategy Framework Directive), especially on habitat, eutrophication, and hydrographic condition descriptors. This presentation will address above challenges, identify limits of current models and propose correspondent research needed. The proposed roadmap will address an integrated monitoring-modelling approach and developing Unified European Coastal Ocean Models. In the coming years, a few new developments in European Sea observations can expected, e.g., more near real time delivering on profile observations made by research vessels, more shallow water Argo floats and bio-Argo floats deployed, much more high resolution sea level data from SWOT

Decomposition analysis of CO2 emission intensity between oil-producing and non-oil-producing sub-Saharan African countries

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ebohon, Obas John; Ikeme, Anthony Jekwu

2006-01-01

The need to decompose CO 2 emission intensity is predicated upon the need for effective climate change mitigation and adaptation policies. Such analysis enables key variables that instigate CO 2 emission intensity to be identified while at the same time providing opportunities to verify the mitigation and adaptation capacities of countries. However, most CO 2 decomposition analysis has been conducted for the developed economies and little attention has been paid to sub-Saharan Africa. The need for such an analysis for SSA is overwhelming for several reasons. Firstly, the region is amongst the most vulnerable to climate change. Secondly, there are disparities in the amount and composition of energy consumption and the levels of economic growth and development in the region. Thus, a decomposition analysis of CO 2 emission intensity for SSA affords the opportunity to identify key influencing variables and to see how they compare among countries in the region. Also, attempts have been made to distinguish between oil and non-oil-producing SSA countries. To this effect a comparative static analysis of CO 2 emission intensity for oil-producing and non oil-producing SSA countries for the periods 1971-1998 has been undertaken, using the refined Laspeyres decomposition model. Our analysis confirms the findings for other regions that CO 2 emission intensity is attributable to energy consumption intensity, CO 2 emission coefficient of energy types and economic structure. Particularly, CO 2 emission coefficient of energy use was found to exercise the most influence on CO 2 emission intensity for both oil and non-oil-producing sub-Saharan African countries in the first sub-interval period of our investigation from 1971-1981. In the second subinterval of 1981-1991, energy intensity and structural effect were the two major influencing factors on emission intensity for the two groups of countries. However, energy intensity effect had the most pronounced impact on CO 2 emission

Table-top solar flares produced with laser driven magnetic reconnections

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zhong J.Y.

2013-11-01

Full Text Available The American Nuclear Society (ANS has presented the prestigious Edward Teller award to Dr. Bruce A. Remington during the 2011 IFSA conference due to his “pioneering scientific work in the fields of inertial confinement fusion (ICF, and especially developing an international effort in high energy density laboratory astrophysics” [1,2]. This is a great acknowledgement to the subject of high energy density laboratory astrophysics. In this context, we report here one experiment conducted to model solar flares in the laboratory with intense lasers [3]. The mega-gauss –scale magnetic fields produced by laser produced plasmas can be used to make magnetic reconnection topology. We have produced one table-top solar flare in our laboratory experiment with the same geometric setup as associated with solar flares.

Producing Distribution Maps for a Spatially-Explicit Ecosystem Model Using Large Monitoring and Environmental Databases and a Combination of Interpolation and Extrapolation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Arnaud Grüss

2018-01-01

Full Text Available To be able to simulate spatial patterns of predator-prey interactions, many spatially-explicit ecosystem modeling platforms, including Atlantis, need to be provided with distribution maps defining the annual or seasonal spatial distributions of functional groups and life stages. We developed a methodology combining extrapolation and interpolation of the predictions made by statistical habitat models to produce distribution maps for the fish and invertebrates represented in the Atlantis model of the Gulf of Mexico (GOM Large Marine Ecosystem (LME (“Atlantis-GOM”. This methodology consists of: (1 compiling a large monitoring database, gathering all the fisheries-independent and fisheries-dependent data collected in the northern (U.S. GOM since 2000; (2 compiling a large environmental database, storing all the environmental parameters known to influence the spatial distribution patterns of fish and invertebrates of the GOM; (3 fitting binomial generalized additive models (GAMs to the large monitoring and environmental databases, and geostatistical binomial generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs to the large monitoring database; and (4 employing GAM predictions to infer spatial distributions in the southern GOM, and GLMM predictions to infer spatial distributions in the U.S. GOM. Thus, our methodology allows for reasonable extrapolation in the southern GOM based on a large amount of monitoring and environmental data, and for interpolation in the U.S. GOM accurately reflecting the probability of encountering fish and invertebrates in that region. We used an iterative cross-validation procedure to validate GAMs. When a GAM did not pass the validation test, we employed a GAM for a related functional group/life stage to generate distribution maps for the southern GOM. In addition, no geostatistical GLMMs were fit for the functional groups and life stages whose depth, longitudinal and latitudinal ranges within the U.S. GOM are not entirely covered by

Improved bioavailability and biodegradation of a model polyaromatic hydrocarbon by a biosurfactant producing bacterium of marine origin.

Science.gov (United States)

Das, Palashpriya; Mukherjee, Soumen; Sen, Ramkrishna

2008-07-01

Polyaromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) are organic pollutants mostly derived from the processing and combustion of fossil fuels and cause human health hazards. In the present study a marine biosurfactant producing strain of Bacillus circulans was used to increase the bioavailability and consequent degradation of a model polyaromatic hydrocarbon, anthracene. Although the organism could not utilize anthracene as the sole carbon source, it showed better growth and biosurfactant production in an anthracene supplemented glycerol mineral salts medium (AGlyMSM) compared to a normal glycerol mineral salts medium (GlyMSM). The biosurfactant product showed high degree of emulsification of various hydrocarbons. Analysis by gas chromatography (GC), high performance thin layer chromatography (HPTLC) and Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR) showed that the biosurfactant could effectively entrap and solubilize PAH. Thin layer chromatographic analysis showed that anthracene was utilized as a carbon substrate for the production of biosurfactant. Thus organic pollutant anthracene was metabolized and converted to biosurfactants facilitating its own bioremediation.

7 CFR 1206.16 - Producer.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... producing, or causing to be produced, mangos beyond the person's own family use and having value at first... AND ORDERS; MISCELLANEOUS COMMODITIES), DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE MANGO PROMOTION, RESEARCH, AND INFORMATION Mango Promotion, Research, and Information Order Definitions § 1206.16 Producer. Producer means...

Tensile Properties Characterization of AlSi10Mg Parts Produced by Direct Metal Laser Sintering via Nested Effects Modeling.

Science.gov (United States)

Palumbo, Biagio; Del Re, Francesco; Martorelli, Massimo; Lanzotti, Antonio; Corrado, Pasquale

2017-02-08

A statistical approach for the characterization of Additive Manufacturing (AM) processes is presented in this paper. Design of Experiments (DOE) and ANalysis of VAriance (ANOVA), both based on Nested Effects Modeling (NEM) technique, are adopted to assess the effect of different laser exposure strategies on physical and mechanical properties of AlSi10Mg parts produced by Direct Metal Laser Sintering (DMLS). Due to the wide industrial interest in AM technologies in many different fields, it is extremely important to ensure high parts performances and productivity. For this aim, the present paper focuses on the evaluation of tensile properties of specimens built with different laser exposure strategies. Two optimal laser parameters settings, in terms of both process quality (part performances) and productivity (part build rate), are identified.

Bootstrap-after-bootstrap model averaging for reducing model uncertainty in model selection for air pollution mortality studies.

Science.gov (United States)

Roberts, Steven; Martin, Michael A

2010-01-01

Concerns have been raised about findings of associations between particulate matter (PM) air pollution and mortality that have been based on a single "best" model arising from a model selection procedure, because such a strategy may ignore model uncertainty inherently involved in searching through a set of candidate models to find the best model. Model averaging has been proposed as a method of allowing for model uncertainty in this context. To propose an extension (double BOOT) to a previously described bootstrap model-averaging procedure (BOOT) for use in time series studies of the association between PM and mortality. We compared double BOOT and BOOT with Bayesian model averaging (BMA) and a standard method of model selection [standard Akaike's information criterion (AIC)]. Actual time series data from the United States are used to conduct a simulation study to compare and contrast the performance of double BOOT, BOOT, BMA, and standard AIC. Double BOOT produced estimates of the effect of PM on mortality that have had smaller root mean squared error than did those produced by BOOT, BMA, and standard AIC. This performance boost resulted from estimates produced by double BOOT having smaller variance than those produced by BOOT and BMA. Double BOOT is a viable alternative to BOOT and BMA for producing estimates of the mortality effect of PM.

Microbial Performance of Food Safety Control and Assurance Activities in a Fresh Produce Processing Sector Measured Using a Microbial Assessment Scheme and Statistical Modeling

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Njage, Patrick Murigu Kamau; Sawe, Chemutai Tonui; Onyango, Cecilia Moraa

2017-01-01

assessment scheme and statistical modeling were used to systematically assess the microbial performance of core control and assurance activities in five Kenyan fresh produce processing and export companies. Generalized linear mixed models and correlated random-effects joint models for multivariate clustered...... the maximum safety level for environmental samples. Escherichia coli was detected in five of the six CSLs, including the final product. Among the processing-environment samples, the hand or glove swabs of personnel revealed a higher level of predicted contamination with E. coli, and 80% of the factories were...... of contamination with coliforms in water at the inlet than in the final rinse water. Four (80%) of the five assessed processors had poor to unacceptable counts of Enterobacteriaceae on processing surfaces. Personnel-, equipment-, and product-related hygiene measures to improve the performance of preventive...

201Hg excitation in plasma produced by laser

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Comet, Maxime

2014-01-01

The use of high power lasers allows the study of the properties of matter in extreme conditions of temperature and density. Indeed, the interaction of a power laser and a target creates a plasma in which the temperature is high enough to reach important degrees of ionization. These conditions can allow the excitation of the nucleus. A nucleus of interest to study the processes of nuclear excitation is the 201 Hg. This work aims to design an experiment where the 201 Hg excitation will be observed in a plasma produced by a high power laser. The first part of this manuscript presents the calculation of the expected nuclear excitation rates in the plasma. For about ten years, nuclear excitation rates have been calculated using the average atom model. To validate this model a code named ADAM (French acronym for Beyond The Average Atom Model) was developed to calculate the nuclear excitation rates under the DCA (Detailed Configuration Accounting) hypothesis. ADAM allows us to deduce the thermo dynamical domain where the nuclear excitation rates determined with the average atom model are relevant. The second part of this manuscript presents the coupling of the excitation rate calculation with a hydrodynamic code to calculate the number of excited nuclei produced in one laser shot for different laser intensity. Finally, in the last part, first experimental approaches which will be used to design an experiment on a laser installation are presented. These approaches are based on the detection and determination of the amount of multicharged ions obtained far from the target (∼80 cm). For this purpose, an electrostatic analyzer was used. (author) [fr

Bose-Einstein correlation of particles produced by expanding sources

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hama, Y.; Padula, S.S.

1988-01-01

Bose-Einstein correlation is discussed for particles produced by rapidly expanding sources, when kinematical effects hinder a direct relation between the observed correlations and the source dimensions. Some of these effects are illustrated by considering Landau's hydrodynamical model wherein each space-time point of the fluid with temperature T = T/sub c/≅m/sub π/ is taken as an independent and chaotic emitting center with a Planck spectral distribution. In particular, this model reproduces surprisingly well the observed π-π and K-K correlations at the CERN ISR

Optimal contracts for wind power producers in electricity markets

KAUST Repository

Bitar, E.

2010-12-01

This paper is focused on optimal contracts for an independent wind power producer in conventional electricity markets. Starting with a simple model of the uncertainty in the production of power from a wind turbine farm and a model for the electric energy market, we derive analytical expressions for optimal contract size and corresponding expected optimal profit. We also address problems involving overproduction penalties, cost of reserves, and utility of additional sensor information. We obtain analytical expressions for marginal profits from investing in local generation and energy storage. ©2010 IEEE.

Modeling Mechanical Properties of Aluminum Composite Produced Using Stir Casting Method

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Muhammad Hayat Jokhio

2011-01-01

Full Text Available ANN (Artificial Neural Networks modeling methodology was adopted for predicting mechanical properties of aluminum cast composite materials. For this purpose aluminum alloy were developed using conventional foundry method. The composite materials have complex nature which posses the nonlinear relationship among heat treatment, processing parameters, and composition and affects their mechanical properties. These nonlinear relation ships with properties can more efficiently be modeled by ANNs. Neural networks modeling needs sufficient data base consisting of mechanical properties, chemical composition and processing parameters. Such data base is not available for modeling. Therefore, a large range of experimental work was carried out for the development of aluminum composite materials. Alloys containing Cu, Mg and Zn as matrix were reinforced with 1- 15% Al2O3 particles using stir casting method. Alloys composites were cast in a metal mold. More than eighty standard samples were prepared for tensile tests. Sixty samples were given solution treatments at 580oC for half an hour and tempered at 120oC for 24 hours. The samples were characterized to investigate mechanical properties using Scanning Electron Microscope, X-Ray Spectrometer, Optical Metallurgical Microscope, Vickers Hardness, Universal Testing Machine and Abrasive Wear Testing Machine. A MLP (Multilayer Perceptron feedforward was developed and used for modeling purpose. Training, testing and validation of the model were carried out using back propagation learning algorithm. The modeling results show that an architecture of 14 inputs with 9 hidden neurons and 4 outputs which includes the tensile strength, elongation, hardness and abrasive wear resistance gives reasonably accurate results with an error within the range of 2-7 % in training, testing and validation.

Modeling mechanical properties of aluminum composite produced using stir casting method

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jokhio, M.H.; Panhwar, M.I.; Unar, M.A.

2011-01-01

ANN (Artificial Neural Networks) modeling methodology was adopted for predicting mechanical properties of aluminum cast composite materials. For this purpose aluminum alloy were developed using conventional foundry method. The composite materials have complex nature which posses the nonlinear relationship among heat treatment, processing parameters, and composition and affects their mechanical properties. These nonlinear relation ships with properties can more efficiently be modeled by ANNs. Neural networks modeling needs sufficient data base consisting of mechanical properties, chemical composition and processing parameters. Such data base is not available for modeling. Therefore, a large range of experimental work was carried out for the development of aluminum composite materials. Alloys containing Cu, Mg and Zn as matrix were reinforced with 1- 15% AI/sub 2/O/sub 3/ particles using stir casting method. Alloys composites were cast in a metal mold. More than eighty standard samples were prepared for tensile tests. Sixty samples were given solution treatments at 580 deg. C for half an hour and tempered at 120 deg. C for 24 hours. The samples were characterized to investigate mechanical properties using Scanning Electron Microscope, X-Ray Spectrometer, Optical Metallurgical Microscope, Vickers Hardness, Universal Testing Machine and Abrasive Wear Testing Machine. A MLP (Multilayer Perceptron) feed forward was developed and used for modeling purpose. Training, testing and validation of the model were carried out using back propagation learning algorithm. The modeling results show that an architecture of 14 inputs with 9 hidden neurons and 4 outputs which includes the tensile strength, elongation, hardness and abrasive wear resistance gives reasonably accurate results with an error within the range of 2-7 % in training, testing and validation. (author)

Modeling the Propagation of Atmospheric Gravity Waves Produced by an Underground Nuclear Explosion using the Transfer Function Model

Science.gov (United States)

Bruntz, R. J.; Mayr, H. G.; Paxton, L. J.

2017-12-01

We will present results from the Transfer Function Model (TFM), which simulates the neutral atmosphere, from 0 to 700 km, across the entire globe (pole to pole). The TFM is able to rapidly calculate the density and temperature perturbations created by a localized impulse. We have used TFM to simulate a ground-level explosion (equivalent to an underground nuclear explosion (UNE)) and its effects on the neutral atmosphere, including the propagation of gravity waves up to ionospheric heights. At ionospheric altitudes ion-neutral interactions are expected to lead to perturbations in the electron density. These perturbations can be observed as changes in the total electron content (TEC), a feature readily observed by the globally distributed network of global navigation satellite systems (GNSS) sensors. We will discuss the time and location of the maximum atmospheric disturbances at a number of altitudes, including the peaks of several ionospheric layers, including the F2 layer, which is often treated as the major driver of changes in GNSS-TEC observations. We will also examine the drop-off of atmospheric disturbances at those altitudes, both with increasing time and distance. The 6 known underground nuclear explosions (UNEs) by North Korea in the 21st century have sparked increased interest in UNE detection through atmospheric and ionospheric observations. The latest test by North Korea (3 Sept. 2017) was the largest UNE in over 2 decades. We will compare TFM results to the analysis of previous UNEs, including some tests by North Korea, and discuss possible confounding factors in predicting the time, location, and amplitude of atmospheric and ionospheric disturbances produced by a UNE.

Bioavailability of isoflavones from soy products in equol producers and non-producers in Japanese women

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ayako Miura

2016-12-01

Conclusions: The results in this study suggest that bioavailability of isoflavones are different between equol producers and non-producers, because the 24 h urinary excretion of equol in the equol producers were significantly lower than those in the equol non-producers.

Infusion of SMAP Data into Offline and Coupled Models: Evaluation, Calibration, and Assimilation

Science.gov (United States)

Lawston, P.; Santanello, J. A., Jr.; Dennis, E. J.; Kumar, S.

2017-12-01

The impact of the land surface on the water and energy cycle is modulated by its coupling to the planetary boundary layer (PBL), and begins at the local scale. A core component of the local land-atmosphere coupling (LoCo) effort requires understanding the `links in the chain' between soil moisture and precipitation, most notably through surface heat fluxes and PBL evolution. To date, broader (i.e. global) application of LoCo diagnostics has been limited by observational data requirements of the coupled system (and in particular, soil moisture) that are typically only met during localized, short-term field campaigns. SMAP offers, for the first time, the ability to map high quality, near-surface soil moisture globally every few days at a spatial resolution comparable to current modeling efforts. As a result, there are numerous potential avenues for SMAP model-data fusion that can be explored in the context of improving understanding of L-A interaction and NWP. In this study, we assess multiple points of intersection of SMAP products with offline and coupled models and evaluate impacts using process-level diagnostics. Results will inform upon the importance of high-resolution soil moisture mapping for improved coupled prediction and model development, as well as reconciling differences in modeled, retrieved, and measured soil moisture. Specifically, NASA model (LIS, NU-WRF) and observation (SMAP, NLDAS-2) products are combined with in-situ standard and IOP measurements (soil moisture, flux, and radiosonde) over the ARM-SGP. An array of land surface model spinups (via LIS-Noah) are performed with varying atmospheric forcing, greenness fraction, and soil layering permutations. Calibration of LIS-Noah soil hydraulic parameters is then performed using an array of in-situ soil moisture and flux and SMAP products. In addition, SMAP assimilation is performed in LIS-Noah both at the scale of the observation (36 and 9km) and the model grid (1km). The focus is on the

Contrail Cirrus Forecasts for the ML-CIRRUS Experiment and Some Comparison Results

Science.gov (United States)

Schumann, Ulrich; Graf, Kaspar; Bugliaro, Luca; Dörnbrack, Andreas; Giez, Andreas; Jurkat, Tina; Kaufmann, Stefan; Krämer, Martina; Minikin, Andreas; Schäfler, Andreas; Voigt, Christiane; Wirth, Martin; Zahn, Andreas; Ziereis, Helmut

2015-04-01

Model simulations with the contrail cirrus prediction model CoCiP driven by numerical weather prediction (NWP) data provided from the European Centre for Medium Range Forecasts (ECMWF) and global aircraft waypoint data show a mean computed cover (for optical depth larger than 0.1) of 0.23% globally, and 5.4% over mid Europe (Schumann and Graf, JGR, 2013). The computed mean longwave radiative forcing (RF) reaches 3 W m-2 over mid Europe (10°W-20°E and 40°N-55°N), and 0.13 W m-2 globally. The global net RF is about 40-60% smaller because of compensating shortwave cooling induced by contrails during daytime. The results depend on several model details such as the number of ice particles forming from aircraft soot emissions, the contrail plume dispersion, ice particle sedimentation etc., all influencing contrail life time and their optical properties. The quantitative results depend also strongly on ambient relative humidity, vertical motion and on ice water content of other cirrus predicted by the NWP model. In order to test and possibly improve this and other contrail models, high-quality observations are needed to which multi-parameter model output can be compared. The Mid-Latitude Cirrus Experiment ML-CIRRUS was performed (see C. Voigt et al., this conference) with a suite of in-situ and Lidar instruments for airborne measurements on the research aircraft HALO. Before and during the mission, CoCiP was run daily to provide 3-days forecasts of contrail cover using operational ECMWF forecasts and historical traffic data. CoCiP forecast output was made available in an internet tool twice a day for experiment planning. The one-day and two-day contrail forecasts often showed only small differences. Still, most recent forecasts and detailed satellite observations results were transmitted via satellite link to the crew for onboard campaign optimization. After the campaign, a data base of realistic air traffic data has been setup from various sources, and CoCiP was

Bet-hedging in bacteriocin producing Escherichia coli populations: the single cell perspective

Science.gov (United States)

Bayramoglu, Bihter; Toubiana, David; van Vliet, Simon; Inglis, R. Fredrik; Shnerb, Nadav; Gillor, Osnat

2017-02-01

Production of public goods in biological systems is often a collaborative effort that may be detrimental to the producers. It is therefore sustainable only if a small fraction of the population shoulders the cost while the majority reap the benefits. We modelled this scenario using Escherichia coli populations producing colicins, an antibiotic that kills producer cells’ close relatives. Colicin expression is a costly trait, and it has been proposed that only a small fraction of the population actively expresses the antibiotic. Colicinogenic populations were followed at the single-cell level using time-lapse microscopy, and showed two distinct, albeit dynamic, subpopulations: the majority silenced colicin expression, while a small fraction of elongated, slow-growing cells formed colicin-expressing hotspots, placing a significant burden on expressers. Moreover, monitoring lineages of individual colicinogenic cells showed stochastic switching between expressers and non-expressers. Hence, colicin expressers may be engaged in risk-reducing strategies—or bet-hedging—as they balance the cost of colicin production with the need to repel competitors. To test the bet-hedging strategy in colicin-mediated interactions, competitions between colicin-sensitive and producer cells were simulated using a numerical model, demonstrating a finely balanced expression range that is essential to sustaining the colicinogenic population.

A fast linear predictive adaptive model of packed bed coupled with UASB reactor treating onion waste to produce biofuel.

Science.gov (United States)

Milquez-Sanabria, Harvey; Blanco-Cocom, Luis; Alzate-Gaviria, Liliana

2016-10-03

Agro-industrial wastes are an energy source for different industries. However, its application has not reached small industries. Previous and current research activities performed on the acidogenic phase of two-phase anaerobic digestion processes deal particularly with process optimization of the acid-phase reactors operating with a wide variety of substrates, both soluble and complex in nature. Mathematical models for anaerobic digestion have been developed to understand and improve the efficient operation of the process. At present, lineal models with the advantages of requiring less data, predicting future behavior and updating when a new set of data becomes available have been developed. The aim of this research was to contribute to the reduction of organic solid waste, generate biogas and develop a simple but accurate mathematical model to predict the behavior of the UASB reactor. The system was maintained separate for 14 days during which hydrolytic and acetogenic bacteria broke down onion waste, produced and accumulated volatile fatty acids. On this day, two reactors were coupled and the system continued for 16 days more. The biogas and methane yields and volatile solid reduction were 0.6 ± 0.05 m 3 (kg VS removed ) -1 , 0.43 ± 0.06 m 3 (kg VS removed ) -1 and 83.5 ± 9.8 %, respectively. The model application showed a good prediction of all process parameters defined; maximum error between experimental and predicted value was 1.84 % for alkalinity profile. A linear predictive adaptive model for anaerobic digestion of onion waste in a two-stage process was determined under batch-fed condition. Organic load rate (OLR) was maintained constant for the entire operation, modifying effluent hydrolysis reactor feed to UASB reactor. This condition avoids intoxication of UASB reactor and also limits external buffer addition.

Brookhaven Linac Isotope Producer

Data.gov (United States)

Federal Laboratory Consortium — The Brookhaven Linac Isoptope Producer (BLIP)—positioned at the forefront of research into radioisotopes used in cancer treatment and diagnosis—produces commercially...

An effort to improve track and intensity prediction of tropical cyclones through vortex initialization in NCUM-global model

Science.gov (United States)

Singh, Vivek; Routray, A.; Mallick, Swapan; George, John P.; Rajagopal, E. N.

2016-05-01

Tropical cyclones (TCs) have strong impact on socio-economic conditions of the countries like India, Bangladesh and Myanmar owing to its awful devastating power. This brings in the need of precise forecasting system to predict the tracks and intensities of TCs accurately well in advance. However, it has been a great challenge for major operational meteorological centers over the years. Genesis of TCs over data sparse warm Tropical Ocean adds more difficulty to this. Weak and misplaced vortices at initial time are one of the prime sources of track and intensity errors in the Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models. Many previous studies have reported the forecast skill of track and intensity of TC improved due to the assimilation of satellite data along with vortex initialization (VI). Keeping this in mind, an attempt has been made to investigate the impact of vortex initialization for simulation of TC using UK-Met office global model, operational at NCMRWF (NCUM). This assessment is carried out by taking the case of a extremely severe cyclonic storm "Chapala" that occurred over Arabian Sea (AS) from 28th October to 3rd November 2015. Two numerical experiments viz. Vort-GTS (Assimilation of GTS observations with VI) and Vort-RAD (Same as Vort-GTS with assimilation of satellite data) are carried out. This vortex initialization study in NCUM model is first of its type over North Indian Ocean (NIO). The model simulation of TC is carried out with five different initial conditions through 24 hour cycles for both the experiments. The results indicate that the vortex initialization with assimilation of satellite data has a positive impact on the track and intensity forecast, landfall time and position error of the TCs.

Improvement of Storm Forecasts Using Gridded Bayesian Linear Regression for Northeast United States

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, J.; Astitha, M.; Schwartz, C. S.

2017-12-01

Bayesian linear regression (BLR) is a post-processing technique in which regression coefficients are derived and used to correct raw forecasts based on pairs of observation-model values. This study presents the development and application of a gridded Bayesian linear regression (GBLR) as a new post-processing technique to improve numerical weather prediction (NWP) of rain and wind storm forecasts over northeast United States. Ten controlled variables produced from ten ensemble members of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) real-time prediction system are used for a GBLR model. In the GBLR framework, leave-one-storm-out cross-validation is utilized to study the performances of the post-processing technique in a database composed of 92 storms. To estimate the regression coefficients of the GBLR, optimization procedures that minimize the systematic and random error of predicted atmospheric variables (wind speed, precipitation, etc.) are implemented for the modeled-observed pairs of training storms. The regression coefficients calculated for meteorological stations of the National Weather Service are interpolated back to the model domain. An analysis of forecast improvements based on error reductions during the storms will demonstrate the value of GBLR approach. This presentation will also illustrate how the variances are optimized for the training partition in GBLR and discuss the verification strategy for grid points where no observations are available. The new post-processing technique is successful in improving wind speed and precipitation storm forecasts using past event-based data and has the potential to be implemented in real-time.

Cyclodextrin-Complexed Ocimum basilicum Leaves Essential Oil Increases Fos Protein Expression in the Central Nervous System and Produce an Antihyperalgesic Effect in Animal Models for Fibromyalgia