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Sample records for nutrient risk analysis

  1. Nutrient-derived dietary patterns and risk of colorectal cancer: a factor analysis in Uruguay.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Stefani, Eduardo; Ronco, Alvaro L; Boffetta, Paolo; Deneo-Pellegrini, Hugo; Correa, Pelayo; Acosta, Gisele; Mendilaharsu, Maria

    2012-01-01

    In order to explore the role of nutrients and bioactive related substances in colorectal cancer, we conducted a case-control in Uruguay, which is the country with the highest production of beef in the world. Six hundred and eleven (611) cases afflicted with colorectal cancer and 1,362 controls drawn from the same hospitals in the same time period were analyzed through unconditional multiple logistic regression. This base population was submitted to a principal components factor analysis and three factors were retained. They were labeled as the meat-based, plant-based, and carbohydrates patterns. They were rotated using orthogonal varimax method. The highest risk was positively associated with the meat-based pattern (OR for the highest quartile versus the lowest one 1.63, 95 % CI 1.22-2.18, P value for trend = 0.001), whereas the plant-based pattern was strongly protective (OR 0.60, 95 % CI 0.45-0.81, P value for trend pattern was only positively associated with colon cancer risk (OR 1.46, 95 % CI 1.02-2.09). The meat-based pattern was rich in saturated fat, animal protein, cholesterol, and phosphorus, nutrients originated in red meat. Since herocyclic amines are formed in the well-done red meat through the action of amino acids and creatine, it is suggestive that this pattern could be an important etiologic agent for colorectal cancer.

  2. Nutrients and Risk of Colon Cancer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Les Mery

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available Dietary fats are thought to be important in the etiology of colon cancer. However, the evidence linking them is inconclusive. Studies on dietary protein, cholesterol and carbohydrate and the risk of colon cancer are also inconsistent. This study examined the association between dietary intake of protein, fats, cholesterol and carbohydrates, and the risk of colon cancer. Mailed questionnaires were completed by 1731 individuals with histologically confirmed cases of colon cancer and 3097 population controls between 1994 and 1997 in seven Canadian provinces. Measurements included socio-economic status, lifestyle habits and diet. A 69-item food frequency questionnaire was used to provide data on eating habits from two years before the study. Odds ratios (OR and 95% confidence intervals (CI were computed using unconditional logistic regression. The nutrients were categorized by quartiles based on the distributions among the controls. Intake of polyunsaturated fat, trans-fat and cholesterol were significantly associated with the risk of colon cancer; the ORs for the highest quartiles were 1.36 (95% CI, 1.02–1.80, 1.37 (95% CI, 1.10–1.71 and 1.42 (95% CI, 1.10–1.84, respectively. The association was stronger with proximal colon cancer (PCC. An increased risk was also observed with increasing intake of sucrose for both proximal and distal colon cancers; the ORs for the highest quartiles were 1.67 (95% CI, 1.22–2.29 for PCC and 1.58 (95% CI, 1.18–2.10 for distal colon cancer (DCC. An elevated risk of PCC was also found with increased lactose intake. Our findings provide evidence that a diet low in fat and sucrose could reduce the risk of various colon cancers.

  3. Nutrients and Risk of Colon Cancer

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hu, Jinfu, E-mail: Jinfu.hu@phac-aspc.gc.ca [Evidence and Risk Assessment Division, Centre for Chronic Disease Prevention and Control, Public Health Agency of Canada, 785 Carling Avenue, AL: 6807B, Ottawa, Ontario K1A 0K9 (Canada); La Vecchia, Carlo [Istituto di Ricerche Farmacologiche “Mario Negri,” Via La Masa, 19-20156 Milan (Italy); Istituto di Statistica Medica e Biometria, Università degli Studi di Milano, Via Venezian, 1, 20133 Milan (Italy); Negri, Eva [Istituto di Ricerche Farmacologiche “Mario Negri,” Via La Masa, 19-20156 Milan (Italy); Mery, Les [Evidence and Risk Assessment Division, Centre for Chronic Disease Prevention and Control, Public Health Agency of Canada, 785 Carling Avenue, AL: 6807B, Ottawa, Ontario K1A 0K9 (Canada)

    2010-02-10

    Dietary fats are thought to be important in the etiology of colon cancer. However, the evidence linking them is inconclusive. Studies on dietary protein, cholesterol and carbohydrate and the risk of colon cancer are also inconsistent. This study examined the association between dietary intake of protein, fats, cholesterol and carbohydrates, and the risk of colon cancer. Mailed questionnaires were completed by 1731 individuals with histologically confirmed cases of colon cancer and 3097 population controls between 1994 and 1997 in seven Canadian provinces. Measurements included socio-economic status, lifestyle habits and diet. A 69-item food frequency questionnaire was used to provide data on eating habits from two years before the study. Odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were computed using unconditional logistic regression. The nutrients were categorized by quartiles based on the distributions among the controls. Intake of polyunsaturated fat, trans-fat and cholesterol were significantly associated with the risk of colon cancer; the ORs for the highest quartiles were 1.36 (95% CI, 1.02–1.80), 1.37 (95% CI, 1.10–1.71) and 1.42 (95% CI, 1.10–1.84), respectively. The association was stronger with proximal colon cancer (PCC). An increased risk was also observed with increasing intake of sucrose for both proximal and distal colon cancers; the ORs for the highest quartiles were 1.67 (95% CI, 1.22–2.29) for PCC and 1.58 (95% CI, 1.18–2.10) for distal colon cancer (DCC). An elevated risk of PCC was also found with increased lactose intake. Our findings provide evidence that a diet low in fat and sucrose could reduce the risk of various colon cancers.

  4. Nutrients and Risk of Colon Cancer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hu, Jinfu; La Vecchia, Carlo; Negri, Eva; Mery, Les

    2010-01-01

    Dietary fats are thought to be important in the etiology of colon cancer. However, the evidence linking them is inconclusive. Studies on dietary protein, cholesterol and carbohydrate and the risk of colon cancer are also inconsistent. This study examined the association between dietary intake of protein, fats, cholesterol and carbohydrates, and the risk of colon cancer. Mailed questionnaires were completed by 1731 individuals with histologically confirmed cases of colon cancer and 3097 population controls between 1994 and 1997 in seven Canadian provinces. Measurements included socio-economic status, lifestyle habits and diet. A 69-item food frequency questionnaire was used to provide data on eating habits from two years before the study. Odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were computed using unconditional logistic regression. The nutrients were categorized by quartiles based on the distributions among the controls. Intake of polyunsaturated fat, trans-fat and cholesterol were significantly associated with the risk of colon cancer; the ORs for the highest quartiles were 1.36 (95% CI, 1.02–1.80), 1.37 (95% CI, 1.10–1.71) and 1.42 (95% CI, 1.10–1.84), respectively. The association was stronger with proximal colon cancer (PCC). An increased risk was also observed with increasing intake of sucrose for both proximal and distal colon cancers; the ORs for the highest quartiles were 1.67 (95% CI, 1.22–2.29) for PCC and 1.58 (95% CI, 1.18–2.10) for distal colon cancer (DCC). An elevated risk of PCC was also found with increased lactose intake. Our findings provide evidence that a diet low in fat and sucrose could reduce the risk of various colon cancers

  5. Differential color space analysis for investigating nutrient content in a puréed food dilution-flavor matrix: a step toward objective malnutrition risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pfisterer, Kaylen J.; Amelard, Robert; Wong, Alexander

    2018-02-01

    Dysphagia (swallowing difficulty) increases risk for malnutrition and affects at least 15% of American older adults, and 590 million people worldwide. Malnutrition is associated with increased mortality, increased morbidity, decreased quality of life, and accounts for over $15 billion (USD) health-care related costs each year. While modified texture diets (e.g., puréed food) reduce the risk of choking, quality assurance is necessary for monitoring nutrient density to ensure food meets nutritional requirements. However, current methods are subjective and time consuming. The purpose of this study was to investigate the feasibility of optical techniques for an objective assessment of food nutrient density in puréed samples. Motivated by a theoretical optical dilution model, broadband spectral images of commercially prepared purée samples were acquired. Specifically, 13 flavors at five dilutions relative to initial concentration, each with six replicates, were acquired for a total of 390 samples. Purée samples were prepared and loaded onto a white reflectance back plane to maximize photon traversal path length through the purée. The sample was illuminated with a tungsten-halogen illumination source fitted with a front glass fabric diffuser for spatially homogeneous illumination. This broadband illuminant was chosen to observe as many food-light spectral absorbance interactions as possible. Flavor-stratified correlation analysis was performed on this food image dataset to investigate the relationship between nutritional information and color space transformations. A special case of blueberry is presented as the effect of anthocyanins was quantitatively observed through normalized spectral trends in response to pH perturbations across dilutions.

  6. Intake of antioxidant nutrients and the risk of skin cancer

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Heinen, M.M.; Hughes, M.C.; Ibiebele, T.I.; Marks, G.C.; Green, A.C.; Pols, van der J.C.

    2007-01-01

    To investigate the associations between intake of antioxidant nutrients and risk of basal cell (BCC) and squamous cell carcinomas (SCC) of the skin, we carried out a prospective study among 1001 randomly selected adults living in an Australian community. Intake of antioxidants was estimated in 1996.

  7. Foliar nutrient analysis of sugar maple decline: retrospective vector diagnosis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Victor R. Timmer; Yuanxin Teng

    1999-01-01

    Accuracy of traditional foiiar analysis of nutrient disorders in sugar maple (Acer saccharum Marsh) is limited by lack of validation and confounding by nutrient interactions. Vector nutrient diagnosis is relatively free of these problems. The technique is demonstrated retrospectively on four case studies. Diagnostic interpretations consistently...

  8. Nutrient intake and nutrient patterns and risk of lung cancer among heavy smokers: results from the COSMOS screening study with annual low-dose CT

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gnagnarella, Patrizia; Maisonneuve, Patrick; Bellomi, Massimo; Rampinelli, Cristiano; Bertolotti, Raffaella; Spaggiari, Lorenzo; Palli, Domenico; Veronesi, Giulia

    2013-01-01

    The role of nutrients in lung cancer aetiology remains controversial and has never been evaluated in the context of screening. Our aim was to investigate the role of single nutrients and nutrient patterns in the aetiology of lung cancer in heavy smokers. Asymptomatic heavy smokers (≥20 pack-years) were invited to undergo annual low-dose computed tomography. We assessed diet using a self-administered food frequency questionnaire and collected information on multivitamin supplement use. We performed principal component analysis identifying four nutrient patterns and used Cox proportional Hazards regression to assess the association between nutrients and nutrients patterns and lung cancer risk. During a mean follow-up of 5.7 years, 178 of 4,336 participants were diagnosed with lung cancer by screening. We found a significant risk reduction of lung cancer with increasing vegetable fat consumption (HR for highest vs. lowest quartile = 0.50, 95 % CI = 0.31–0.80; P-trend = 0.02). Participants classified in the high “vitamins and fiber” pattern score had a significant risk reduction of lung cancer (HR = 0.57; 95 % CI = 0.36–0.90, P-trend = 0.01). Among heavy smokers enrolled in a screening trial, high vegetable fat intake and adherence to the “vitamin and fiber” nutrient pattern were associated with reduced lung cancer incidence.

  9. Risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baron, J.H.; Nunez McLeod, J.; Rivera, S.S.

    1997-01-01

    This book contains a selection of research works performed in the CEDIAC Institute (Cuyo National University) in the area of Risk Analysis, with specific orientations to the subjects of uncertainty and sensitivity studies, software reliability, severe accident modeling, etc. This volume presents important material for all those researches who want to have an insight in the risk analysis field, as a tool to solution several problems frequently found in the engineering and applied sciences field, as well as for the academic teachers who want to keep up to date, including the new developments and improvements continuously arising in this field [es

  10. Nutrient patterns and risk of cataract: a case-control study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fatemeh Sedaghat

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available AIM: To assess the relation between nutrient patterns and cataract risk. METHODS: This is a hospital-based case-control study with 97 cataract patients and 198 matched controls. Dietary consumption was collected through a valid food frequency questionnaire (FFQ. Nutrient patterns were detected by applying factor analysis. Unconditional logistic regression models were used to estimate odds ratio (ORs and 95%CIs. RESULTS: We extracted 5 main nutrient patterns. Factor 1 included niacin, thiamin, carbohydrates, protein, zinc, vitamin B6 and sodium (sodium pattern. Factor 2 was characterized by oleic acid, monounsaturated fats, polyunsaturated fats, linoleic acid, trans fatty acid, linolenic acid, vitamin E and saturated fats (fatty acid pattern. The third factor represented high intake of vitamin B12, vitamin D, cholesterol and calcium (mixed pattern. The 4th pattern was high in intake of beta and alpha carotene, vitamin A and vitamin C (antioxidant pattern. Finally, the 5th pattern loaded heavily on docosahexaenoic acid (DHA and eicosapentaenoic acid (EPA (omega-3 pattern. In crude and multivariate analysis, the sodium pattern was associated with increased risk of cataract (OR=1.97, 95%CI: 1.09-3.96. The fatty acid pattern elevated the risk of cataract (OR=1.94, 95%CI: 1.1-3.86. Antioxidant pattern was associated with a significant 79% reduced risk (2nd category compared with the 1st. Omega-3 pattern was significantly negatively associated with risk of cataract (P=0.04. CONCLUSION: These findings imply that nutrient patterns reflecting a combined consumption of nutrients might be important in the etiology of cataract. Additional studies with more efficient designs are warranted to confirm our findings.

  11. Main nutrient patterns and colorectal cancer risk in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moskal, Aurélie; Freisling, Heinz; Byrnes, Graham; Assi, Nada; Fahey, Michael T; Jenab, Mazda; Ferrari, Pietro; Tjønneland, Anne; Petersen, Kristina En; Dahm, Christina C; Hansen, Camilla Plambeck; Affret, Aurélie; Boutron-Ruault, Marie-Christine; Cadeau, Claire; Kühn, Tilman; Katzke, Verena; Iqbal, Khalid; Boeing, Heiner; Trichopoulou, Antonia; Bamia, Christina; Naska, Androniki; Masala, Giovanna; de Magistris, Maria Santucci; Sieri, Sabina; Tumino, Rosario; Sacerdote, Carlotta; Peeters, Petra H; Bueno-de-Mesquita, Bas H; Engeset, Dagrun; Licaj, Idlir; Skeie, Guri; Ardanaz, Eva; Buckland, Genevieve; Castaño, José M Huerta; Quirós, José R; Amiano, Pilar; Molina-Portillo, Elena; Winkvist, Anna; Myte, Robin; Ericson, Ulrika; Sonestedt, Emily; Perez-Cornago, Aurora; Wareham, Nick; Khaw, Kay-Tee; Huybrechts, Inge; Tsilidis, Konstantinos K; Ward, Heather; Gunter, Marc J; Slimani, Nadia

    2016-11-22

    Much of the current literature on diet-colorectal cancer (CRC) associations focused on studies of single foods/nutrients, whereas less is known about nutrient patterns. We investigated the association between major nutrient patterns and CRC risk in participants of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study. Among 477 312 participants, intakes of 23 nutrients were estimated from validated dietary questionnaires. Using results from a previous principal component (PC) analysis, four major nutrient patterns were identified. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were computed for the association of each of the four patterns and CRC incidence using multivariate Cox proportional hazards models with adjustment for established CRC risk factors. During an average of 11 years of follow-up, 4517 incident cases of CRC were documented. A nutrient pattern characterised by high intakes of vitamins and minerals was inversely associated with CRC (HR per 1 s.d.=0.94, 95% CI: 0.92-0.98) as was a pattern characterised by total protein, riboflavin, phosphorus and calcium (HR (1 s.d.)=0.96, 95% CI: 0.93-0.99). The remaining two patterns were not significantly associated with CRC risk. Analysing nutrient patterns may improve our understanding of how groups of nutrients relate to CRC.

  12. A New Approach To Soil Sampling For Risk Assessment Of Nutrient Mobilisation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jonczyk, J. C.; Owen, G. J.; Snell, M. A.; Barber, N.; Benskin, C.; Reaney, S. M.; Haygarth, P.; Quinn, P. F.; Barker, P. A.; Aftab, A.; Burke, S.; Cleasby, W.; Surridge, B.; Perks, M. T.

    2016-12-01

    Traditionally, risks of nutrient and sediment losses from soils are assessed through a combination of field soil nutrient values on soil samples taken over the whole field and the proximity of the field to water courses. The field average nutrient concentration of the soil is used by farmers to determine fertiliser needs. These data are often used by scientists to assess the risk of nutrient losses to water course, though are not really `fit' for this purpose. The Eden Demonstration Test Catchment (http://www.edendtc.org.uk/) is a research project based in the River Eden catchment, NW UK, with the aim of cost effectively mitigating diffuse pollution from agriculture whilst maintaining agricultural productivity. Three instrumented focus catchments have been monitored since 2011, providing high resolution in-stream chemistry and ecological data, alongside some spatial data on soils, land use and nutrient inputs. An approach to mitigation was demonstrated in a small sub-catchment, where surface runoff was identified as the key drivers of nutrient losses, using a suite of runoff attenuation features. Other issues identified were management of hard- standings and soil compaction. A new approach for evaluating nutrient losses from soils is assessed in the Eden DTC project. The Sensitive Catchment Integrated Modelling and Prediction (SCIMAP) model is a risk-mapping framework designed to identify where in the landscape diffuse pollution is most likely to be originating (http://www.scimap.org.uk) and was used to look at the spatial pattern of erosion potential. The aim of this work was to assess if erosion potential identified through the model could be used to inform a new soil sampling strategy, to better assess risk of erosion and risk of transport of sediment-bound phosphorus. Soil samples were taken from areas with different erosion potential. The chemical analysis of these targeted samples are compared to those obtained using more traditional sampling approaches

  13. Risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Correa Lizarazu, X.

    2013-01-01

    The power point presentation Colombia risk evaluation experiences, sanitarian regulations evolution, chemical dangers food, biological dangers food, codex alimentarius, trade, industrial effects, dangers identification, data collection and risk profile

  14. Diagnosis of nutrient imbalances with vector analysis in agroforestry systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Isaac, Marney E; Kimaro, Anthony A

    2011-01-01

    Agricultural intensification has had unintended environmental consequences, including increased nutrient leaching and surface runoff and other agrarian-derived pollutants. Improved diagnosis of on-farm nutrient dynamics will have the advantage of increasing yields and will diminish financial and environmental costs. To achieve this, a management support system that allows for site-specific rapid evaluation of nutrient production imbalances and subsequent management prescriptions is needed for agroecological design. Vector diagnosis, a bivariate model to depict changes in yield and nutritional response simultaneously in a single graph, facilitates identification of nutritional status such as growth dilution, deficiency, sufficiency, luxury uptake, and toxicity. Quantitative data from cocoa agroforestry systems and pigeonpea intercropping trials in Ghana and Tanzania, respectively, were re-evaluated with vector analysis. Relative to monoculture, biomass increase in cocoa ( L.) under shade (35-80%) was accompanied by a 17 to 25% decline in P concentration, the most limiting nutrient on this site. Similarly, increasing biomass with declining P concentrations was noted for pigeonpea [ (L). Millsp.] in response to soil moisture availability under intercropping. Although vector analysis depicted nutrient responses, the current vector model does not consider non-nutrient resource effects on growth, such as ameliorated light and soil moisture, which were particularly active in these systems. We revisit and develop vector analysis into a framework for diagnosing nutrient and non-nutrient interactions in agroforestry systems. Such a diagnostic technique advances management decision-making by increasing nutrient precision and reducing environmental issues associated with agrarian-derived soil contamination. American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America.

  15. A treelet transform analysis to relate nutrient patterns to the risk of hormonal receptor-defined breast cancer in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Assi, Nada; Moskal, Aurelie; Slimani, Nadia

    2016-01-01

    in epidemiological studies. We examined the association between various indices of glycaemia measured during everyday activities and metabolic CVD risk factors in the A1C-Derived Average Glucose (ADAG) study. Methods: Participants (268 with type 1 diabetes, 159 with type 2 diabetes) completed 16 weeks of intensive...... continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) and self-monitoring of blood glucose (SMBG). From these data, common indices of postprandial glycaemia, overall hyperglycaemia, glucose variability and HbA1c were derived. The associations between glycaemic indices and known CVD risk factors (lipids, high-sensitivity C......Aims: Increased glucose excursions and postprandial hyperglycaemia have been suggested as unique risk factors for cardiovascular disease (CVD) and mortality in patients with diabetes mellitus. Much of the evidence is based on a single 2 h glucose value after oral glucose tolerance testing...

  16. Adult nutrient intake as a risk factor for Parkinson's disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, C C; Gorell, J M; Rybicki, B A; Sanders, K; Peterson, E L

    1999-12-01

    This population-based case-control study evaluated nutrient intake as a risk factor for Parkinson's disease (PD) among people aged > or =50 years in metropolitan Detroit. Cases (n = 126) were diagnosed between 1991 and 1995 and neurologist-confirmed. Controls (n = 432) were frequency-matched for sex, age (+/-5 years) and race. Using a standardized food frequency questionnaire, subjects reported the foods they ate within the past year. Estimating the association between PD and risk of being in the highest versus the lowest intake quartile, there were elevated odds ratios for total fat (OR 1.94, 95% confidence interval [CI] : 1.05-3.58), cholesterol (OR 2.11, 95% CI: 1.14-3.90), lutein (OR 2.52, 95% CI: 1.32-4.84) and iron (OR 1.88, 95% CI: 1.05-3.38). These results suggest an association of PD with high intake of total fat, saturated fats, cholesterol, lutein and iron.

  17. Detecting terrestrial nutrient limitation: a global meta-analysis of foliar nutrient concentrations after fertilization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rebecca eOstertag

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Examining foliar nutrient concentrations after fertilization provides an alternative method for detecting nutrient limitation of ecosystems, which is logistically simpler to measure than biomass change. We present a meta-analysis of response ratios of foliar nitrogen and phosphorus (RRN, RRP after addition of fertilizer of nitrogen (N, phosphorus (P, or the two elements in combination, in relation to climate, ecosystem type, life form, family, and methodological factors. Results support other meta-analyses using biomass, and demonstrate there is strong evidence for nutrient limitation in natural communities. However, because N fertilization experiments greatly outnumber P fertilization trials, it is difficult to discern the absolute importance of N vs. P vs. co-limitation across ecosystems. Despite these caveats, it is striking that results did not follow conventional wisdom that temperate ecosystems are N-limited and tropical ones are P-limited. In addition, the use of ratios of N-to-P rather than response ratios also are a useful index of nutrient limitation, but due to large overlap in values, there are unlikely to be universal cutoff values for delimiting N vs. P limitation. Differences in RRN and RRP were most significant across ecosystem types, plant families, life forms, and between competitive environments, but not across climatic variables.

  18. Testing consumer perception of nutrient content claims using conjoint analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drewnowski, Adam; Moskowitz, Howard; Reisner, Michele; Krieger, Bert

    2010-05-01

    The US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) proposes to establish standardized and mandatory criteria upon which front-of-pack (FOP) nutrition labelling must be based. The present study aimed to estimate the relative contribution of declared amounts of different nutrients to the perception of the overall 'healthfulness' of foods by the consumer. Protein, fibre, vitamin A, vitamin C, calcium and iron were nutrients to encourage. Total fat, saturated fat, cholesterol, total and added sugar, and sodium were the nutrients to limit. Two content claims per nutrient used the FDA-approved language. An online consumer panel (n 320) exposed to multiple messages (n 48) rated the healthfulness of each hypothetical food product. Utility functions were constructed using conjoint analysis, based on multiple logistic regression and maximum likelihood estimation. Consumer perception of healthfulness was most strongly driven by the declared presence of protein, fibre, calcium and vitamin C and by the declared total absence of saturated fat and sodium. For this adult panel, total and added sugar had lower utilities and contributed less to the perception of healthfulness. There were major differences between women and men. Conjoint analysis can lead to a better understanding of how consumers process information about the full nutrition profile of a product, and is a powerful tool for the testing of nutrient content claims. Such studies can help the FDA develop science-based criteria for nutrient profiling that underlies FOP and shelf labelling.

  19. Information security risk analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Peltier, Thomas R

    2001-01-01

    Effective Risk AnalysisQualitative Risk AnalysisValue AnalysisOther Qualitative MethodsFacilitated Risk Analysis Process (FRAP)Other Uses of Qualitative Risk AnalysisCase StudyAppendix A: QuestionnaireAppendix B: Facilitated Risk Analysis Process FormsAppendix C: Business Impact Analysis FormsAppendix D: Sample of ReportAppendix E: Threat DefinitionsAppendix F: Other Risk Analysis OpinionsIndex

  20. Sensitivity analysis of a pulse nutrient addition technique for estimating nutrient uptake in large streams

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laurence Lin; J.R. Webster

    2012-01-01

    The constant nutrient addition technique has been used extensively to measure nutrient uptake in streams. However, this technique is impractical for large streams, and the pulse nutrient addition (PNA) has been suggested as an alternative. We developed a computer model to simulate Monod kinetics nutrient uptake in large rivers and used this model to evaluate the...

  1. Nutrient patterns and risk of fracture in older subjects: results from the Three-City Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samieri, C; Ginder Coupez, V; Lorrain, S; Letenneur, L; Allès, B; Féart, C; Paineau, D; Barberger-Gateau, P

    2013-04-01

    We investigated the association between nutrient patterns and risk of fractures in 1,482 older subjects. Patterns associated with higher intakes of Ca, P, vitamin B12, proteins and unsaturated fats, and moderate alcohol intake, provided by diets rich in dairies and charcuteries, were related to a lower risk of wrist and hip fractures. The purpose of this study was to investigate the relationship between patterns of nutrient intake and the risk of fractures in older subjects. Among 1,482 participants from the Bordeaux sample of the Three-City (3C) Study who completed a 24-h dietary recall and a food frequency questionnaire, we examined the association between patterns of nutrient intake derived from principal component analysis and 8-year incidence of self-reported fractures of the hip, the wrist, and the vertebrae. A "nutrient-dense" pattern rich in Ca and P, iron, vitamins B including B12, vitamins C and E, alcohol, proteins, and unsaturated fats, and characterized by a higher consumption of fruits and vegetables, meats and fish, cheese and milk, charcuteries, cereals, rice, pasta, and potatoes, was associated with a 19% (95% CI 2-34%, P=0.03) lower risk of wrist fractures. The same pattern was associated with a 14% (95% CI 2-25%) lower risk of fractures at any site. A "south-western French" pattern rich in Ca, P, vitamins D and B12, retinol, alcohol, proteins, and fats-including unsaturated fats; poor in vitamins C, E, and K, carotenes, folates, and fibers; and related to a higher consumption of cheese, milk, and charcuterie and a lower consumption of fruits and vegetables was related to a 33% lower risk of hip fractures (95% CI 3-39%, P=0.03). Higher intakes of Ca, P, vitamin B12, proteins, and unsaturated fats and moderate alcohol, provided by dietary patterns rich in cheese, milk, and charcuteries, were related to a lower risk of wrist and hip fractures in our cohort.

  2. Impact of Temperature and Nutrients on Carbon: Nutrient Tissue Stoichiometry of Submerged Aquatic Plants: An Experiment and Meta-Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mandy Velthuis

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Human activity is currently changing our environment rapidly, with predicted temperature increases of 1–5°C over the coming century and increased nitrogen and phosphorus inputs in aquatic ecosystems. In the shallow parts of these ecosystems, submerged aquatic plants enhance water clarity by resource competition with phytoplankton, provide habitat, and serve as a food source for other organisms. The carbon:nutrient stoichiometry of submerged aquatic plants can be affected by changes in both temperature and nutrient availability. We hypothesized that elevated temperature leads to higher carbon:nutrient ratios through enhanced nutrient-use efficiency, while nutrient addition leads to lower carbon:nutrient ratios by the luxurious uptake of nutrients. We addressed these hypotheses with an experimental and a meta-analytical approach. We performed a full-factorial microcosm experiment with the freshwater plant Elodea nuttallii grown at 10, 15, 20, and 25°C on sediment consisting of pond soil/sand mixtures with 100, 50, 25, and 12.5% pond soil. To address the effect of climatic warming and nutrient addition on the carbon:nutrient stoichiometry of submerged freshwater and marine plants we performed a meta-analysis on experimental studies that elevated temperature and/or added nutrients (nitrogen and phosphorus. In the microcosm experiment, C:N ratios of Elodea nuttallii decreased with increasing temperature, and this effect was most pronounced at intermediate nutrient availability. Furthermore, higher nutrient availability led to decreased aboveground C:P ratios. In the meta-analysis, nutrient addition led to a 25, 22, and 16% reduction in aboveground C:N and C:P ratios and belowground C:N ratios, accompanied with increased N content. No consistent effect of elevated temperature on plant stoichiometry could be observed, as very few studies were found on this topic and contrasting results were reported. We conclude that while nutrient addition

  3. Nutrient management strategies on Dutch dairy farms: an empirical analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ondersteijn, C.J.M.

    2002-01-01

    Key Words: MINAS; nitrogen surplus; phosphate surplus; nutrient efficiency; nutrient productivity; financial consequences; strategic management; perceived environmental uncertainty; nutrient management planning; dairy farming; The Netherlands.

    Agricultural nutrients are a

  4. Nutrient analysis of the Beef Alternative Merchandising cuts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Desimone, T L; Acheson, R A; Woerner, D R; Engle, T E; Douglass, L W; Belk, K E

    2013-03-01

    The objective of this study was to generate raw and cooked nutrient composition data to identify Quality Grade differences in proximate values for eight Beef Alternative Merchandising (BAM) cuts. The data generated will be used to update the nutrient data in the USDA National Nutrient Database for Standard Reference (SR). Beef Rib, Oven-Prepared, Beef Loin, Strip Loin, and Beef Loin, Top Sirloin Butt subprimals were collected from a total of 24 carcasses from four packing plants. The carcasses were a combination of USDA Yield Grades 2 (n=12) and 3 (n=12), USDA Quality Grades upper two-thirds Choice (n=8), low Choice (n=8), and Select (n=8), and two genders, steer (n=16) and heifer (n=8). After aging, subprimals were fabricated into the BAM cuts, dissected, and nutrient analysis was performed. Sample homogenates from each animal were homogenized and composited for analysis of the following: proximate analysis, long chain and trans-fatty acids, conjugated linoleic acid, total cholesterol, vitamin B-12, and selenium. This study identified seven BAM cuts from all three Quality Grades that qualify for USDA Lean; seven Select cuts that qualify for USDA Extra Lean; and three Select cuts that qualify for the American Heart Association's Heart Healthy Check. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Nutrient and food intakes in early life and risk of childhood fractures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Händel, Mina N; Heitmann, Berit L; Abrahamsen, Bo

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND: The identification of detrimental dietary patterns early in life may contribute to reducing the high incidence of fracture among healthy children. However, information based on a systematic review of the effect of various dietary foods and nutrients on fracture risk is lacking......, Web of Science, and Scopus databases and by hand searching references by first author based on predefined inclusion criteria. A meta-analysis was carried out for case-control studies that examined differences in mean calcium intake in the case compared with the control group. Random-effects analysis...... of a systematic review of studies that were judged to be of high or medium quality, there is an indication that some nutritional factors seem to be associated with an increased fracture risk among children. The results may be inflated by selection bias, bias in diet reporting, or residual confounding. More high...

  6. Nutrient dietary patterns and the risk of colorectal cancer: a case-control study from Italy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bravi, Francesca; Edefonti, Valeria; Bosetti, Cristina; Talamini, Renato; Montella, Maurizio; Giacosa, Attilio; Franceschi, Silvia; Negri, Eva; Ferraroni, Monica; La Vecchia, Carlo; Decarli, Adriano

    2010-11-01

    The role of diet on colorectal cancer has been considered in terms of single foods and nutrients, but less frequently in terms of dietary patterns. Data were derived from an Italian case-control study, including 1,225 subjects with cancer of the colon, 728 subjects with rectal cancer, and 4,154 hospital controls. We identified dietary patterns on a selected set of nutrients through principal component factor analysis. Odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals for both cancers were estimated using unconditional multiple logistic regression. We identified 5 major dietary patterns. Direct associations were observed between the Starch-rich pattern and both cancer of the colon (OR = 1.68) and of the rectum (OR = 1.74). Inverse relationships were found between the Vitamins and fiber pattern and rectal cancer (OR = 0.61), between the Unsaturated fats (animal source) and the Unsaturated fats (vegetable source) and cancer of the colon (OR = 0.80 and OR = 0.79, respectively). No other significant association was found. The Starch-rich pattern is potentially an unfavorable indicator of risk for both colon and rectal cancer, whereas the Vitamins and fiber pattern is associated with a reduced risk of rectal cancer and the Unsaturated fats patterns with a reduced risk of colon cancer.

  7. UPSTREAM-TO-DOWNSTREAM CHANGES IN NUTRIENT EXPORT RISK

    Science.gov (United States)

    One of the early operating principles of landscape ecology was the importance of studying the movement of energy, nutrients, and biota in the horizontal or x,y plane (Risser et al. 1984). The new focus on horizontal movement was in part based on the recognition that many ecol...

  8. Foundations of Risk Analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Aven, Terje

    2012-01-01

    Foundations of Risk Analysis presents the issues core to risk analysis - understanding what risk means, expressing risk, building risk models, addressing uncertainty, and applying probability models to real problems. The author provides the readers with the knowledge and basic thinking they require to successfully manage risk and uncertainty to support decision making. This updated edition reflects recent developments on risk and uncertainty concepts, representations and treatment. New material in Foundations of Risk Analysis includes:An up to date presentation of how to understand, define and

  9. A multivariate analysis of serum nutrient levels and lung function

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Smit Henriette A

    2008-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background There is mounting evidence that estimates of intakes of a range of dietary nutrients are related to both lung function level and rate of decline, but far less evidence on the relation between lung function and objective measures of serum levels of individual nutrients. The aim of this study was to conduct a comprehensive examination of the independent associations of a wide range of serum markers of nutritional status with lung function, measured as the one-second forced expiratory volume (FEV1. Methods Using data from the Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, a US population-based cross-sectional study, we investigated the relation between 21 serum markers of potentially relevant nutrients and FEV1, with adjustment for potential confounding factors. Systematic approaches were used to guide the analysis. Results In a mutually adjusted model, higher serum levels of antioxidant vitamins (vitamin A, beta-cryptoxanthin, vitamin C, vitamin E, selenium, normalized calcium, chloride, and iron were independently associated with higher levels of FEV1. Higher concentrations of potassium and sodium were associated with lower FEV1. Conclusion Maintaining higher serum concentrations of dietary antioxidant vitamins and selenium is potentially beneficial to lung health. In addition other novel associations found in this study merit further investigation.

  10. Food groups and nutrient intake and risk of colorectal cancer: a hospital-based case-control study in Spain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Banqué, Marta; Raidó, Blanca; Masuet, Cristina; Ramon, Josep M

    2012-04-01

    Although evidence supports that colorectal cancer (CRC) has an environmental etiology, the potential influence of diet appears to be one of the most important components. We studied the relation between food groups and nutrient intake and the risk of CRC. A hospital-based case-control study was conducted in Spain between 2007 and 2009. The authors matched 245 patients with incident histologically confirmed CRC by age, gender, and date of admission with 490 controls. Information about nutrient intake was gathered by using a semiquantitative frequency food questionnaire. Univariate analysis was done with individual food items. Odds ratios (ORs) for consecutive tertiles of nutrient intake were computed after allowance for sociodemographic variables and consumption of food groups. Vitamin B6 (OR: 0.26), vitamin D (OR: 0.45), vitamin E (OR: 0.42), polyunsaturated fatty acids (OR: 0.57), and fiber (OR: 0.40) were inversely associated with CRC, whereas carbohydrates (OR: 1.82) were significantly associated with CRC risk for the upper tertile. In multivariate analysis adjusting for major covariables (energy, age, and gender), vitamin D (OR:0.45), vitamin E (OR:0.36), and fiber (OR:0.46) remained associated with CRC. Data suggest that the etiology of colorectal cancer is not due to lifestyle and dietary patterns being important the effect of single nutrients.

  11. Main nutrient patterns and colorectal cancer risk in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Moskal, Aurélie; Freisling, Heinz; Byrnes, Graham; Assi, Nada; Fahey, Michael T.; Jenab, Mazda; Ferrari, Pietro; Tjønneland, Anne; Petersen, Kristina EN; Dahm, Christina C.; Hansen, Camilla Plambeck; Affret, Aurélie; Boutron-Ruault, Marie Christine; Cadeau, Claire; Kühn, Tilman; Katzke, Verena; Iqbal, Khalid; Boeing, Heiner; Trichopoulou, Antonia; Bamia, Christina; Naska, Androniki; Masala, Giovanna; de Magistris, Maria Santucci; Sieri, Sabina; Tumino, Rosario; Sacerdote, Carlotta; Peeters, Petra H.; Bueno-de-Mesquita, Bas H.; Engeset, Dagrun; Licaj, Idlir; Skeie, Guri; Ardanaz, Eva; Buckland, Genevieve; Castaño, José M Huerta; Quirós, José R.; Amiano, Pilar; Molina-Portillo, Elena; Winkvist, Anna; Myte, Robin; Ericson, Ulrika; Sonestedt, Emily; Perez-Cornago, Aurora; Wareham, Nick; Khaw, Kay Tee; Huybrechts, Inge; Tsilidis, Konstantinos K.; Ward, Heather; Gunter, Marc J.; Slimani, Nadia

    2016-01-01

    Background:Much of the current literature on diet–colorectal cancer (CRC) associations focused on studies of single foods/nutrients, whereas less is known about nutrient patterns. We investigated the association between major nutrient patterns and CRC risk in participants of the European Prospective

  12. Observations on risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thompson, W.A. Jr.

    1979-11-01

    This paper briefly describes WASH 1400 and the Lewis report. It attempts to define basic concepts such as risk and risk analysis, common mode failure, and rare event. Several probabilistic models which go beyond the WASH 1400 methodology are introduced; the common characteristic of these models is that they recognize explicitly that risk analysis is time dependent whereas WASH 1400 takes a per demand failure rate approach which obscures the important fact that accidents are time related. Further, the presentation of a realistic risk analysis should recognize that there are various risks which compete with one another for the lives of the individuals at risk. A way of doing this is suggested

  13. Plasma nutrient status of patients with Alzheimer's disease: Systematic review and meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lopes da Silva, Sofia; Vellas, Bruno; Elemans, Saskia; Luchsinger, José; Kamphuis, Patrick; Yaffe, Kristine; Sijben, John; Groenendijk, Martine; Stijnen, Theo

    2014-07-01

    Alzheimer disease (AD) patients are at risk of nutritional insufficiencies because of physiological and psychological factors. Nutritional compounds are postulated to play a role in the pathophysiological processes that are affected in AD. We here provide the first systematic review and meta-analysis that compares plasma levels of micronutrients and fatty acids in AD patients to those in cognitively intact elderly controls. A secondary objective was to explore the presence of different plasma nutrient levels between AD and control populations that did not differ in measures of protein/energy nourishment. We screened literature published after 1990 in the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, Medline, and Embase electronic databases using Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines for AD patients, controls, micronutrient, vitamins, and fatty acids, resulting in 3397 publications, of which 80 met all inclusion criteria. Status of protein/energy malnutrition was assessed by body mass index, mini nutritional assessment score, or plasma albumin. Meta-analysis, with correction for differences in mean age between AD patients and controls, was performed when more than five publications were retrieved for a specific nutrient. We identified five or more studies for folate, vitamin A, vitamin B12, vitamin C, vitamin D, vitamin E, copper, iron, and zinc but fewer than five studies for vitamins B1 and B6, long-chain omega-3 fatty acids, calcium, magnesium, manganese, and selenium (the results of the individual publications are discussed). Meta-analysis showed significantly lower plasma levels of folate and vitamin A, vitamin B12, vitamin C, and vitamin E (P vitamin D (P = .075) were found in AD patients. No significant differences were observed for plasma levels of copper and iron. A meta-analysis that was limited to studies reporting no differences in protein/energy malnourishment between AD and control populations yielded

  14. Dietary pattern classifications with nutrient intake and health-risk factors in Korean men.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Ji Eun; Kim, Jung-Hyun; Son, Say Jin; Ahn, Younjhin; Lee, Juyoung; Park, Chan; Lee, Lilha; Erickson, Kent L; Jung, In-Kyung

    2011-01-01

    This study was performed to identify dietary patterns in Korean men and to determine the associations among dietary patterns, nutrient intake, and health-risk factors. Using baseline data from the Korean Health and Genome Study, dietary patterns were identified using factor analysis of data from a validated food-frequency questionnaire, and associations between these dietary patterns and health-risk factors were analyzed. Three dietary patterns were identified: 1) the "animal-food" pattern (greater intake of meats, fish, and dairy products), 2) the "rice-vegetable" pattern (greater intake of rice, tofu, kimchi, soybean paste, vegetables, and seaweed), and 3) the "noodle-bread" pattern (greater intake of instant noodles, Chinese noodles, and bread). The animal-food pattern (preferred by younger people with higher income and education levels) had a positive correlation with obesity and hypercholesterolemia, whereas the rice-vegetable pattern (preferred by older people with lower income and educational levels) was positively associated with hypertension. The noodle-bread pattern (also preferred by younger people with higher income and education levels) had a positive association with abdominal obesity and hypercholesterolemia. This study identifies three unique dietary patterns in Korean men, which are independently associated with certain health-risk factors. The rice-vegetable dietary pattern, modified for a low sodium intake, might be a healthy dietary pattern for Korean men. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. Is risk analysis scientific?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansson, Sven Ove; Aven, Terje

    2014-07-01

    This article discusses to what extent risk analysis is scientific in view of a set of commonly used definitions and criteria. We consider scientific knowledge to be characterized by its subject matter, its success in developing the best available knowledge in its fields of study, and the epistemic norms and values that guide scientific investigations. We proceed to assess the field of risk analysis according to these criteria. For this purpose, we use a model for risk analysis in which science is used as a base for decision making on risks, which covers the five elements evidence, knowledge base, broad risk evaluation, managerial review and judgment, and the decision; and that relates these elements to the domains experts and decisionmakers, and to the domains fact-based or value-based. We conclude that risk analysis is a scientific field of study, when understood as consisting primarily of (i) knowledge about risk-related phenomena, processes, events, etc., and (ii) concepts, theories, frameworks, approaches, principles, methods and models to understand, assess, characterize, communicate, and manage risk, in general and for specific applications (the instrumental part). © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

  16. Analysis of nutrient flows in integrated intensive aquaculture systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schneider, O.; Sereti, V.; Eding, E.H.; Verreth, J.A.J.

    2005-01-01

    This paper analyses nutrient conversions, which are taking place in integrated intensive aquaculture systems. In these systems fish is cultured next to other organisms, which are converting otherwise discharged nutrients into valuable products. These conversions are analyzed based on nitrogen and

  17. Comparative risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Niehaus, F.

    1988-01-01

    In this paper, the risks of various energy systems are discussed considering severe accidents analysis, particularly the probabilistic safety analysis, and probabilistic safety criteria, and the applications of these criteria and analysis. The comparative risk analysis has demonstrated that the largest source of risk in every society is from daily small accidents. Nevertheless, we have to be more concerned about severe accidents. The comparative risk analysis of five different energy systems (coal, oil, gas, LWR and STEC (Solar)) for the public has shown that the main sources of risks are coal and oil. The latest comparative risk study of various energy has been conducted in the USA and has revealed that the number of victims from coal is 42 as many than victims from nuclear. A study for severe accidents from hydro-dams in United States has estimated the probability of dam failures at 1 in 10,000 years and the number of victims between 11,000 and 260,000. The average occupational risk from coal is one fatal accident in 1,000 workers/year. The probabilistic safety analysis is a method that can be used to assess nuclear energy risks, and to analyze the severe accidents, and to model all possible accident sequences and consequences. The 'Fault tree' analysis is used to know the probability of failure of the different systems at each point of accident sequences and to calculate the probability of risks. After calculating the probability of failure, the criteria for judging the numerical results have to be developed, that is the quantitative and qualitative goals. To achieve these goals, several systems have been devised by various countries members of AIEA. The probabilistic safety ana-lysis method has been developed by establishing a computer program permit-ting to know different categories of safety related information. 19 tabs. (author)

  18. Information Security Risk Analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Peltier, Thomas R

    2010-01-01

    Offers readers with the knowledge and the skill-set needed to achieve a highly effective risk analysis assessment. This title demonstrates how to identify threats and then determine if those threats pose a real risk. It is suitable for industry and academia professionals.

  19. Dairy Analytics and Nutrient Analysis (DANA) Prototype System User Manual

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sam Alessi; Dennis Keiser

    2012-10-01

    This document is a user manual for the Dairy Analytics and Nutrient Analysis (DANA) model. DANA provides an analysis of dairy anaerobic digestion technology and allows users to calculate biogas production, co-product valuation, capital costs, expenses, revenue and financial metrics, for user customizable scenarios, dairy and digester types. The model provides results for three anaerobic digester types; Covered Lagoons, Modified Plug Flow, and Complete Mix, and three main energy production technologies; electricity generation, renewable natural gas generation, and compressed natural gas generation. Additional options include different dairy types, bedding types, backend treatment type as well as numerous production, and economic parameters. DANA’s goal is to extend the National Market Value of Anaerobic Digester Products analysis (informa economics, 2012; Innovation Center, 2011) to include a greater and more flexible set of regional digester scenarios and to provide a modular framework for creation of a tool to support farmer and investor needs. Users can set up scenarios from combinations of existing parameters or add new parameters, run the model and view a variety of reports, charts and tables that are automatically produced and delivered over the web interface. DANA is based in the INL’s analysis architecture entitled Generalized Environment for Modeling Systems (GEMS) , which offers extensive collaboration, analysis, and integration opportunities and greatly speeds the ability construct highly scalable web delivered user-oriented decision tools. DANA’s approach uses server-based data processing and web-based user interfaces, rather a client-based spreadsheet approach. This offers a number of benefits over the client-based approach. Server processing and storage can scale up to handle a very large number of scenarios, so that analysis of county, even field level, across the whole U.S., can be performed. Server based databases allow dairy and digester

  20. Component of the risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martinez, I.; Campon, G.

    2013-01-01

    The power point presentation reviews issues like analysis of risk (Codex), management risk, preliminary activities manager, relationship between government and industries, microbiological danger and communication of risk

  1. Unsharpness-risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Preyssl, C.

    1986-01-01

    Safety analysis provides the only tool for evaluation and quantification of rare or hypothetical events leading to system failure. So far probability theory has been used for the fault- and event-tree methodology. The phenomenon of uncertainties constitutes an important aspect in risk analysis. Uncertainties can be classified as originating from 'randomness' or 'fuzziness'. Probability theory addresses randomness only. The use of 'fuzzy set theory' makes it possible to include both types of uncertainty in the mathematical model of risk analysis. Thus the 'fuzzy fault tree' is expressed in 'possibilistic' terms implying a range of simplifications and improvements. 'Human failure' and 'conditionality' can be treated correctly. Only minimum-maximum relations are used to combine the possibility distributions of events. Various event-classifications facilitate the interpretation of the results. The method is demonstrated by application to a TRIGA-research reactor. Uncertainty as an implicit part of 'fuzzy risk' can be quantified explicitly using an 'uncertainty measure'. Based on this the 'degree of relative compliance' with a quantizative safety goal can be defined for a particular risk. The introduction of 'weighting functionals' guarantees the consideration of the importances attached to different parts of the risk exceeding or complying with the standard. The comparison of two reference systems is demonstrated in a case study. It is concluded that any application of the 'fuzzy risk analysis' has to be free of any hypostatization when reducing subjective to objective information. (Author)

  2. Adversarial risk analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Banks, David L; Rios Insua, David

    2015-01-01

    Flexible Models to Analyze Opponent Behavior A relatively new area of research, adversarial risk analysis (ARA) informs decision making when there are intelligent opponents and uncertain outcomes. Adversarial Risk Analysis develops methods for allocating defensive or offensive resources against intelligent adversaries. Many examples throughout illustrate the application of the ARA approach to a variety of games and strategic situations. The book shows decision makers how to build Bayesian models for the strategic calculation of their opponents, enabling decision makers to maximize their expected utility or minimize their expected loss. This new approach to risk analysis asserts that analysts should use Bayesian thinking to describe their beliefs about an opponent's goals, resources, optimism, and type of strategic calculation, such as minimax and level-k thinking. Within that framework, analysts then solve the problem from the perspective of the opponent while placing subjective probability distributions on a...

  3. Proximate and nutrient analysis of selected vegetable species: A ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    STORAGESEVER

    2009-06-17

    Jun 17, 2009 ... Karak, an arid region, have limited water and land resources to cultivate various crops specially vegetables. However, a few seasonal vegetable are available to the local communities in meager quantities. The ash, carbohydrate, protein, moisture, fat, fiber contents, energy values and nutrient composition ...

  4. Proximate and nutrient analysis of selected vegetable species: A ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Karak, an arid region, have limited water and land resources to cultivate various crops specially vegetables. However, a few seasonal vegetable are available to the local communities in meager quantities. The ash, carbohydrate, protein, moisture, fat, fiber contents, energy values and nutrient composition of eight ...

  5. Water Quality Protection from Nutrient Pollution: Case Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Water bodies and coastal areas around the world are threatened by increases in upstream sediment and nutrient loads, which influence drinking water sources, aquatic species, and other ecologic functions and services of streams, lakes, and coastal water bodies. For example, incre...

  6. Nutrient and Phytoplankton Analysis of a Mediterranean Coastal Area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sebastiá, M. T.; Rodilla, M.

    2013-01-01

    Identifying and quantifying the key anthropogenic nutrient input sources are essential to adopting management measures that can target input for maximum effect in controlling the phytoplankton biomass. In this study, three systems characterized by distinctive main nutrient sources were sampled along a Mediterranean coast transect. These sources were groundwater discharge in the Ahuir area, the Serpis river discharge in the Venecia area, and a submarine wastewater outfall 1,900 m from the coast. The study area includes factors considered important in determining a coastal area as a sensitive area: it has significant nutrient sources, tourism is a major source of income in the region, and it includes an area of high water residence time (Venecia area) which is affected by the harbor facilities and by wastewater discharges. We found that in the Ahuir and the submarine wastewater outfall areas, the effects of freshwater inputs were reduced because of a greater water exchange with the oligotrophic Mediterranean waters. On the other hand, in the Venecia area, the highest levels of nutrient concentration and phytoplankton biomass were attributed to the greatest water residence time. In this enclosed area, harmful dinoflagellates were detected ( Alexandrium sp. and Dinophysis caudata). If the planned enlargement of the Gandia Harbor proceeds, it may increase the vulnerability of this system and provide the proper conditions of confinement for the dinoflagellate blooms' development. Management measures should first target phosphorus inputs as this is the most potential-limiting nutrient in the Venecia area and comes from a point source that is easier to control. Finally, we recommend that harbor environmental management plans include regular monitoring of water quality in adjacent waters to identify adverse phytoplankton community changes.

  7. Nutrient and phytoplankton analysis of a Mediterranean coastal area.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sebastiá, M T; Rodilla, M

    2013-01-01

    Identifying and quantifying the key anthropogenic nutrient input sources are essential to adopting management measures that can target input for maximum effect in controlling the phytoplankton biomass. In this study, three systems characterized by distinctive main nutrient sources were sampled along a Mediterranean coast transect. These sources were groundwater discharge in the Ahuir area, the Serpis river discharge in the Venecia area, and a submarine wastewater outfall 1,900 m from the coast. The study area includes factors considered important in determining a coastal area as a sensitive area: it has significant nutrient sources, tourism is a major source of income in the region, and it includes an area of high water residence time (Venecia area) which is affected by the harbor facilities and by wastewater discharges. We found that in the Ahuir and the submarine wastewater outfall areas, the effects of freshwater inputs were reduced because of a greater water exchange with the oligotrophic Mediterranean waters. On the other hand, in the Venecia area, the highest levels of nutrient concentration and phytoplankton biomass were attributed to the greatest water residence time. In this enclosed area, harmful dinoflagellates were detected (Alexandrium sp. and Dinophysis caudata). If the planned enlargement of the Gandia Harbor proceeds, it may increase the vulnerability of this system and provide the proper conditions of confinement for the dinoflagellate blooms' development. Management measures should first target phosphorus inputs as this is the most potential-limiting nutrient in the Venecia area and comes from a point source that is easier to control. Finally, we recommend that harbor environmental management plans include regular monitoring of water quality in adjacent waters to identify adverse phytoplankton community changes.

  8. Risks and benefits of gardening in urban soil; heavy metals and nutrient content in Los Angeles Community Gardens

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clarke, L. W.; Jenerette, D.; Bain, D. J.

    2012-12-01

    The availability of soil nutrients and heavy metals in urban community gardens can influence health of crops and participants. Interactions between garden history, management, and soils are understudied in cities. In July 2011, we collected soil samples from 45 plots at 6 Los Angeles community gardens. For comparison, 3 samples were collected from uncultivated garden soils and 3 more from outside soils. Samples were then tested for major nutrients- Nitrogen(N), Potassium (K), and Phosphorous (P)- and organic matter (SOM). We also measured concentrations of 29 metals in 3 gardens using Inductively Coupled Plasma- Atomic Emission Spectroscopy. Potassium and phosphorus exceeded optimum levels in all plots, with some over twice the maximum recommended levels. Over-fertilized soils may contribute to local watershed pollution and crop micronutrient deficiencies. Low soil SOM was observed in gardens in impoverished neighborhoods, possibly due to low quality amendments. Our metals analysis showed dangerous levels of lead (Pb)-- up to 1700 ppm in outside soils and 150 ppm in garden soils-- near older gardens, indicating lead deposition legacies. California lead safety standards indicate that children should not play near soils with Pb above 200 ppm, indicating need for long term monitoring of lead contaminated gardens. Arsenic (As) levels exceeded federal risk levels (0.3 ppm) and average CA background levels (2 ppm) in all areas, with some gardens exceeding 10 ppm. Heavy metal legacies in gardens may pose risks to participants with prolonged exposure and remediation of soils may be necessary.

  9. Nutrient analysis explained for non-chemists by using interactive e-learning material

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Busstra, M.C.; Hulshof, P.J.M.; Houwen, J.; Elburg, L.; Hollman, P.C.H.

    2012-01-01

    The diverse educational and professional background of individuals involved in food composition data work presents challenges in their training. In particular, it is difficult to explain chemical analysis of nutrients to individuals lacking a background in chemistry. Therefore an interactive

  10. Are physical activity levels linked to nutrient adequacy? Implications for cancer risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Csizmadi, Ilona; Kelemen, Linda E; Speidel, Thomas; Yuan, Yan; Dale, Laura C; Friedenreich, Christine M; Robson, Paula J

    2014-01-01

    Cancer prevention guidelines recommend a healthy body mass index, physical activity, and nutrient intake from food rather than supplements. Sedentary individuals may restrict energy intake to prevent weight gain and in so doing may compromise nutritional intake. We conducted a cross-sectional analysis to determine if adequacy of micronutrients is linked to physical activity levels (PALs) in healthy-weight adults. Tomorrow Project participants in Alberta, Canada (n = 5333), completed past-year diet and physical activity questionnaires. The percent meeting Dietary Reference Intakes (DRIs) was reported across low and high PAL groups, and the relation between PAL and percent achieved DRI was determined using multiple linear regression analyses. Overall, genders (P physical activity to include having a more favorable impact on nutrient adequacy.

  11. Environmental risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lima-e-Silva, Pedro Paulo de

    1996-01-01

    The conventional Risk Analysis (RA) relates usually a certain undesired event frequency with its consequences. Such technique is used nowadays in Brazil to analyze accidents and their consequences strictly under the human approach, valuing loss of human equipment, human structures and human lives, without considering the damage caused to natural resources that keep life possible on Earth. This paradigm was developed primarily because of the Homo sapiens' lack of perception upon the natural web needed to sustain his own life. In reality, the Brazilian professionals responsible today for licensing, auditing and inspecting environmental aspects of human activities face huge difficulties in making technical specifications and procedures leading to acceptable levels of impact, furthermore considering the intrinsic difficulties to define those levels. Therefore, in Brazil the RA technique is a weak tool for licensing for many reasons, and of them are its short scope (only accident considerations) and wrong a paradigm (only human direct damages). A paper from the author about the former was already proposed to the 7th International Conference on Environmetrics, past July'96, USP-SP. This one discusses the extension of the risk analysis concept to take into account environmental consequences, transforming the conventional analysis into a broader methodology named here as Environmental Risk Analysis. (author)

  12. Risk analysis and reliability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Uppuluri, V.R.R.

    1979-01-01

    Mathematical foundations of risk analysis are addressed. The importance of having the same probability space in order to compare different experiments is pointed out. Then the following topics are discussed: consequences as random variables with infinite expectations; the phenomenon of rare events; series-parallel systems and different kinds of randomness that could be imposed on such systems; and the problem of consensus of estimates of expert opinion

  13. Optimization of carrageenan-based jelly products added with nutrients for reducing osteoporosis risks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Athaillah, Zatil Afrah; Eviana, Irma; Pudjiraharti, Sri; Haryono, Agus

    2017-11-01

    Osteoporosis is a main concern, particularly in aging populations and more specifically in elderly women. Introducing functional foods that contains nutrients that have been scientifically proven to bring beneficial effects for bone metabolism is one of potential mechanism to reduce its prevalence. In this study, optimization of jelly products containing the necessary nutrients was conducted. We investigated the effect of adding skim milk, at particular concentrations, to gelling temperature of the sol, syneresis of the gels, and texture profile of the gels. Furthermore, green tea and ginger extract were added to the formulation and consumer preference on color and taste was analyzed. Our findings demonstrated that no significant difference in gelling temperature and syneresis was found as skim milk concentration was increased from 0.64 to 2.51%. Texture profile analysis data suggested that adding skim milk contributed to increased firmness, toughness, stringiness, and initial stiffness of the gels. In general, panellist could accept both color and taste of green tea and ginger jellies, as the median values were between 6 and 7 in the 9-point rating hedonic scale. These findings suggested that addition of nutrients beneficial for bone health can be conducted to jelly products with good sensory acceptance.

  14. Mare Risk Analysis monitor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fuente Prieto, I.; Alonso, P.; Carretero Fernandino, J. A.

    2000-01-01

    The Nuclear Safety Council's requirement that Spanish power plants comply with the requirements of the Maintenance Rule associated with plant risk assessment during power operation, arising from the partial unavailability of systems due to the maintenance activities, has led to need for additional tools to facilitate compliance with said requirements. While the impact on risk produced by individual equipment unavailabilities can easily be evaluated, either qualitatively or quantitatively, the process becomes more complicated when un programmed unavailabilities simultaneously occur in various systems, making it necessary to evaluate their functional impact. It is especially complex in the case of support systems that can affect the functionality of multiple systems. In view of the above, a computer application has been developed that is capable of providing the operator with quick answers based on the specific plant model in order to allow fast risk assessment using the information compiled as part of the Probabilistic Safety Analysis. The paper describes the most important characteristics of this application and the basic design requirements of the MARE Risk Monitor. (Author)

  15. Methods for Risk Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alverbro, Karin

    2010-01-01

    Many decision-making situations today affect humans and the environment. In practice, many such decisions are made without an overall view and prioritise one or other of the two areas. Now and then these two areas of regulation come into conflict, e.g. the best alternative as regards environmental considerations is not always the best from a human safety perspective and vice versa. This report was prepared within a major project with the aim of developing a framework in which both the environmental aspects and the human safety aspects are integrated, and decisions can be made taking both fields into consideration. The safety risks have to be analysed in order to be successfully avoided and one way of doing this is to use different kinds of risk analysis methods. There is an abundance of existing methods to choose from and new methods are constantly being developed. This report describes some of the risk analysis methods currently available for analysing safety and examines the relationships between them. The focus here is mainly on human safety aspects

  16. Probabilistic risk analysis and terrorism risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ezell, Barry Charles; Bennett, Steven P; von Winterfeldt, Detlof; Sokolowski, John; Collins, Andrew J

    2010-04-01

    Since the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, and the subsequent establishment of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS), considerable efforts have been made to estimate the risks of terrorism and the cost effectiveness of security policies to reduce these risks. DHS, industry, and the academic risk analysis communities have all invested heavily in the development of tools and approaches that can assist decisionmakers in effectively allocating limited resources across the vast array of potential investments that could mitigate risks from terrorism and other threats to the homeland. Decisionmakers demand models, analyses, and decision support that are useful for this task and based on the state of the art. Since terrorism risk analysis is new, no single method is likely to meet this challenge. In this article we explore a number of existing and potential approaches for terrorism risk analysis, focusing particularly on recent discussions regarding the applicability of probabilistic and decision analytic approaches to bioterrorism risks and the Bioterrorism Risk Assessment methodology used by the DHS and criticized by the National Academies and others.

  17. International Conference on Risk Analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Oliveira, Teresa; Rigas, Alexandros; Gulati, Sneh

    2015-01-01

    This book covers the latest results in the field of risk analysis. Presented topics include probabilistic models in cancer research, models and methods in longevity, epidemiology of cancer risk, engineering reliability and economical risk problems. The contributions of this volume originate from the 5th International Conference on Risk Analysis (ICRA 5). The conference brought together researchers and practitioners working in the field of risk analysis in order to present new theoretical and computational methods with applications in biology, environmental sciences, public health, economics and finance.

  18. Trend analysis of stressors and ecological responses, particularly nutrients, in the Narragansett Bay Watershed.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Current and historic impacts of nitrogen on water quality were evaluated and relationships between nutrients and ecosystem structure and function were developed for Narragansett Bay, RI. Land use land cover change analysis from 1985 thru 2005 resulted in a 7% increase in urban la...

  19. Nutrient Status and Contamination Risks from Digested Pig Slurry Applied on a Vegetable Crops Field

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shaohui Zhang

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available The effects of applied digested pig slurry on a vegetable crops field were studied. The study included a 3-year investigation on nutrient characteristics, heavy metals contamination and hygienic risks of a vegetable crops field in Wuhan, China. The results showed that, after anaerobic digestion, abundant N, P and K remained in the digested pig slurry while fecal coliforms, ascaris eggs, schistosoma eggs and hookworm eggs were highly reduced. High Cr, Zn and Cu contents in the digested pig slurry were found in spring. Digested pig slurry application to the vegetable crops field led to improved soil fertility. Plant-available P in the fertilized soils increased due to considerable increase in total P content and decrease in low-availability P fraction. The As content in the fertilized soils increased slightly but significantly (p = 0.003 compared with control. The Hg, Zn, Cr, Cd, Pb, and Cu contents in the fertilized soils did not exceed the maximum permissible contents for vegetable crops soils in China. However, high Zn accumulation should be of concern due to repeated applications of digested pig slurry. No fecal coliforms, ascaris eggs, schistosoma eggs or hookworm eggs were detected in the fertilized soils.

  20. MATHEMATICAL RISK ANALYSIS: VIA NICHOLAS RISK MODEL AND BAYESIAN ANALYSIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anass BAYAGA

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this second part of a two-phased study was to explorethe predictive power of quantitative risk analysis (QRA method andprocess within Higher Education Institution (HEI. The method and process investigated the use impact analysis via Nicholas risk model and Bayesian analysis, with a sample of hundred (100 risk analysts in a historically black South African University in the greater Eastern Cape Province.The first findings supported and confirmed previous literature (KingIII report, 2009: Nicholas and Steyn, 2008: Stoney, 2007: COSA, 2004 that there was a direct relationship between risk factor, its likelihood and impact, certiris paribus. The second finding in relation to either controlling the likelihood or the impact of occurrence of risk (Nicholas risk model was that to have a brighter risk reward, it was important to control the likelihood ofoccurrence of risks as compared with its impact so to have a direct effect on entire University. On the Bayesian analysis, thus third finding, the impact of risk should be predicted along three aspects. These aspects included the human impact (decisions made, the property impact (students and infrastructural based and the business impact. Lastly, the study revealed that although in most business cases, where as business cycles considerably vary dependingon the industry and or the institution, this study revealed that, most impacts in HEI (University was within the period of one academic.The recommendation was that application of quantitative risk analysisshould be related to current legislative framework that affects HEI.

  1. Country risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    David, A.

    1992-01-01

    This paper reports that the oil industry has been an internationally based industry that has been heavily dependent on outside financing sources. Historically, financing came from investment houses that, in most cases, participated in the projects as equity investors. However, investment companies can no longer satisfy the capital requirements of the current high level of exploration and development activities. The current trend is to involve commercial banks on a purely lending basis. Commercial banks, by their nature, are risk averse. In the case of oil and gas exploration and production they are asked to take not only technical risk and price risk but geopolitical risk as well. Methods have been developed by commercial banks to reduce technical and price risks to point which enables them to be comfortable with a loan. However, geopolitical risks are more difficult to assess. The risk associated with many countries are the nationalization of the investment, new tax restrictions, restriction of currency movements, and/or revisions to the production sharing agreements

  2. Risk analysis of Odelouca cofferdam

    OpenAIRE

    Pimenta, L.; Caldeira, L.; Maranha das Neves, E.

    2009-01-01

    In this paper we present the risk analysis of Odelouca Cofferdam, using an event tree analysis. The initializing events, failure modes and analysed limit states are discussed based on an influence diagram. The constructed event trees and their interpretation are presented. The obtained risk values are represented in an FN plot superimposed to the acceptability and tolerability risk limits proposed for Portuguese dams. Initially, particular emphasis is placed on the main characteristic...

  3. Use of Principal Components Analysis to Explain Controls on Nutrient Fluxes to the Chesapeake Bay

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rice, K. C.; Mills, A. L.

    2017-12-01

    The Chesapeake Bay watershed, on the east coast of the United States, encompasses about 166,000-square kilometers (km2) of diverse land use, which includes a mixture of forested, agricultural, and developed land. The watershed is now managed under a Total Daily Maximum Load (TMDL), which requires implementation of management actions by 2025 that are sufficient to reduce nitrogen, phosphorus, and suspended-sediment fluxes to the Chesapeake Bay and restore the bay's water quality. We analyzed nutrient and sediment data along with land-use and climatic variables in nine sub watersheds to better understand the drivers of flux within the watershed and to provide relevant management implications. The nine sub watersheds range in area from 300 to 30,000 km2, and the analysis period was 1985-2014. The 31 variables specific to each sub watershed were highly statistically significantly correlated, so Principal Components Analysis was used to reduce the dimensionality of the dataset. The analysis revealed that about 80% of the variability in the whole dataset can be explained by discharge, flux, and concentration of nutrients and sediment. The first two principal components (PCs) explained about 68% of the total variance. PC1 loaded strongly on discharge and flux, and PC2 loaded on concentration. The PC scores of both PC1 and PC2 varied by season. Subsequent analysis of PC1 scores versus PC2 scores, broken out by sub watershed, revealed management implications. Some of the largest sub watersheds are largely driven by discharge, and consequently large fluxes. In contrast, some of the smaller sub watersheds are more variable in nutrient concentrations than discharge and flux. Our results suggest that, given no change in discharge, a reduction in nutrient flux to the streams in the smaller watersheds could result in a proportionately larger decrease in fluxes of nutrients down the river to the bay, than in the larger watersheds.

  4. Campylobacter Risk Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nauta, Maarten

    In several countries quantitative microbiological risk assessments (QMRAs) have been performed for Campylobacter in chicken meat. The models constructed for this purpose provide a good example of the development of QMRA in general and illustrate the diversity of available methods. Despite...... the differences between the models, the most prominent conclusions of the QMRAs are similar. These conclusions for example relate to the large risk of highly contaminated meat products and the insignificance of contamination from Campylobacter positive flocks to negative flocks during slaughter and processing...

  5. Risk analysis: opening the process

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hubert, Ph.; Mays, C.

    1998-01-01

    This conference on risk analysis took place in Paris, 11-14 october 1999. Over 200 paper where presented in the seven following sessions: perception; environment and health; persuasive risks; objects and products; personal and collective involvement; assessment and valuation; management. A rational approach to risk analysis has been developed in the three last decades. Techniques for risk assessment have been thoroughly enhanced, risk management approaches have been developed, decision making processes have been clarified, the social dimensions of risk perception and management have been investigated. Nevertheless this construction is being challenged by recent events which reveal how deficits in stakeholder involvement, openness and democratic procedures can undermine risk management actions. Indeed, the global process most components of risk analysis may be radically called into question. Food safety has lately been a prominent issue, but now debates appear, or old debates are revisited in the domains of public health, consumer products safety, waste management, environmental risks, nuclear installations, automobile safety and pollution. To meet the growing pressures for efficiency, openness, accountability, and multi-partner communication in risk analysis, institutional changes are underway in many European countries. However, the need for stakeholders to develop better insight into the process may lead to an evolution of all the components of risks analysis, even in its most (technical' steps. For stakeholders of different professional background, political projects, and responsibilities, risk identification procedures must be rendered understandable, quantitative risk assessment must be intelligible and accommodated in action proposals, ranging from countermeasures to educational programs to insurance mechanisms. Management formats must be open to local and political input and other types of operational feedback. (authors)

  6. Advances in probabilistic risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hardung von Hardung, H.

    1982-01-01

    Probabilistic risk analysis can now look back upon almost a quarter century of intensive development. The early studies, whose methods and results are still referred to occasionally, however, only permitted rough estimates to be made of the probabilities of recognizable accident scenarios, failing to provide a method which could have served as a reference base in calculating the overall risk associated with nuclear power plants. The first truly solid attempt was the Rasmussen Study and, partly based on it, the German Risk Study. In those studies, probabilistic risk analysis has been given a much more precise basis. However, new methodologies have been developed in the meantime, which allow much more informative risk studies to be carried out. They have been found to be valuable tools for management decisions with respect to backfitting, reinforcement and risk limitation. Today they are mainly applied by specialized private consultants and have already found widespread application especially in the USA. (orig.) [de

  7. Introduction of the risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Campon, G.; Martinez, I.

    2013-01-01

    An introduction of risks analysis was given in the exposition which main issues were: food innocuousness, world, regional and national food context,change of paradigms, health definition, risk, codex, standardization, food chain role, trade agreement, codex alimentarius, food transmission diseases cost impact

  8. Hydroproject risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Murdock, R.V.; Gulliver, J.S.

    1991-01-01

    Traditionally, economic feasibility studies performed for potential hydropower plant sites have included either no uncertainty or at best an ad hoc value associated with estimated benefits. However, formal methods for analyzing uncertainty do exist and have been outlined in the past. An application of these methods is demonstrated through conversion of a hydropower survey program, HYFEAS, to run on LOTUS 1-2-3, using the add-in software package RISK. In this paper the program principals are outlined and a case study of it's application to a hydropower site is presented

  9. STOCHASTIC METHODS IN RISK ANALYSIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vladimíra OSADSKÁ

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we review basic stochastic methods which can be used to extend state-of-the-art deterministic analytical methods for risk analysis. We can conclude that the standard deterministic analytical methods highly depend on the practical experience and knowledge of the evaluator and therefore, the stochastic methods should be introduced. The new risk analysis methods should consider the uncertainties in input values. We present how large is the impact on the results of the analysis solving practical example of FMECA with uncertainties modelled using Monte Carlo sampling.

  10. Farming and the geography of nutrient production for human use: a transdisciplinary analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herrero, Mario; Thornton, Philip K; Power, Brendan; Bogard, Jessica R; Remans, Roseline; Fritz, Steffen; Gerber, James S; Nelson, Gerald; See, Linda; Waha, Katharina; Watson, Reg A; West, Paul C; Samberg, Leah H; van de Steeg, Jeannette; Stephenson, Eloise; van Wijk, Mark; Havlík, Petr

    2017-04-01

    Information about the global structure of agriculture and nutrient production and its diversity is essential to improve present understanding of national food production patterns, agricultural livelihoods, and food chains, and their linkages to land use and their associated ecosystems services. Here we provide a plausible breakdown of global agricultural and nutrient production by farm size, and also study the associations between farm size, agricultural diversity, and nutrient production. This analysis is crucial to design interventions that might be appropriately targeted to promote healthy diets and ecosystems in the face of population growth, urbanisation, and climate change. We used existing spatially-explicit global datasets to estimate the production levels of 41 major crops, seven livestock, and 14 aquaculture and fish products. From overall production estimates, we estimated the production of vitamin A, vitamin B 12 , folate, iron, zinc, calcium, calories, and protein. We also estimated the relative contribution of farms of different sizes to the production of different agricultural commodities and associated nutrients, as well as how the diversity of food production based on the number of different products grown per geographic pixel and distribution of products within this pixel (Shannon diversity index [ H ]) changes with different farm sizes. Globally, small and medium farms (≤50 ha) produce 51-77% of nearly all commodities and nutrients examined here. However, important regional differences exist. Large farms (>50 ha) dominate production in North America, South America, and Australia and New Zealand. In these regions, large farms contribute between 75% and 100% of all cereal, livestock, and fruit production, and the pattern is similar for other commodity groups. By contrast, small farms (≤20 ha) produce more than 75% of most food commodities in sub-Saharan Africa, southeast Asia, south Asia, and China. In Europe, west Asia and north Africa, and

  11. Food Cost and Nutrient Availability in Urban Indonesia: Estimates for Food Policy Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Teklu, Tesfaye; Jensen, Helen H.

    1989-01-01

    Evaluating the effects of economic growth and the effectiveness of targeted government intervention requires identification of tarket groups and information on food and nutrient consumption patterns. A model of nutrient consumption linked to food choice behaviour is used to evaluate nutrient availability in urban Indonesia. Nutrient demand responses varied significantly across income levels

  12. Development of an automated flow injection analysis system for determination of phosphate in nutrient solutions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karadağ, Sevinç; Görüşük, Emine M; Çetinkaya, Ebru; Deveci, Seda; Dönmez, Koray B; Uncuoğlu, Emre; Doğu, Mustafa

    2018-01-25

    A fully automated flow injection analysis (FIA) system was developed for determination of phosphate ion in nutrient solutions. This newly developed FIA system is a portable, rapid and sensitive measuring instrument that allows on-line analysis and monitoring of phosphate ion concentration in nutrient solutions. The molybdenum blue method, which is widely used in FIA phosphate analysis, was adapted to the developed FIA system. The method is based on the formation of ammonium Mo(VI) ion by reaction of ammonium molybdate with the phosphate ion present in the medium. The Mo(VI) ion then reacts with ascorbic acid and is reduced to the spectrometrically measurable Mo(V) ion. New software specific for flow analysis was developed in the LabVIEW development environment to control all the components of the FIA system. The important factors affecting the analytical signal were identified as reagent flow rate, injection volume and post-injection flow path length, and they were optimized using Box-Behnken experimental design and response surface methodology. The optimum point for the maximum analytical signal was calculated as 0.50 mL min -1 reagent flow rate, 100 µL sample injection volume and 60 cm post-injection flow path length. The proposed FIA system had a sampling frequency of 100 samples per hour over a linear working range of 3-100 mg L -1 (R 2  = 0.9995). The relative standard deviation (RSD) was 1.09% and the limit of detection (LOD) was 0.34 mg L -1 . Various nutrient solutions from a tomato-growing hydroponic greenhouse were analyzed with the developed FIA system and the results were found to be in good agreement with vanadomolybdate chemical method findings. © 2018 Society of Chemical Industry. © 2018 Society of Chemical Industry.

  13. Analysis of the Current Nutrient Management Practices in Semi-Arid Areas of Eastern Kenya: A Nutmon Approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Karuku, A.M.

    2002-01-01

    Declining soil fertility caused mainly by continuous cultivation without adequate replenishment of nutrients, is a major factor contributing to low crop yields in the arid and semi arid areas of Kenya. Development of appropriate nutrient management strategies for suitable agricultural production in these areas is, therefore, a priority issue. in the study reported here, analyses of the current nutrient management practices were carried out using the nutrient monitoring (NUTMON) approach in order to create farm house-hold awareness on nutrient management aspects. The procedure involved participatory soil and nutrient flow maps and soil sampling at farm level. laboratory analysis of the soil samples was later carried out. Structured questionnaires were used for systematic collection of information on farm management practices in order to quantify flows of materials with emphasis on soil nutrients and cash. Results of the laboratory soil analysis were also presented to the farmers and discussed during feedback sessions. The test was carried out in three places namely, Kibwezi, Kasikeu and Kiomo. In all the three clusters, off-farm income was an important component of the total family income. Farm net cash flow was highest in Kibwezi cluster due to horticultural crop production activities. Household net cash flow was highest in Kasikeu, largely originating from off-farm income. It was concluded that NUTMON methodology appeared a suitable tool for the diagnostic of the farming system analysis and design in the arid and semi-arid lands of Kenya

  14. ProRisk : risk analysis instrument : developed for William properties

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Doorn, W.H.W.; Egeberg, Ingrid; Hendrickx, Kristoff; Kahramaner, Y.; Masseur, B.; Waijers, Koen; Weglicka, K.A.

    2005-01-01

    This report presents a Risk Analysis Instrument developed for William Properties. Based on the analysis, it appears that the practice of Risk Analysis exists within the organization, yet rather implicit. The Risk Analysis Instrument comes with a package of four components: an activity diagram, a

  15. In Utero Exposure to Dietary Methyl Nutrients and Breast Cancer Risk in Offspring

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-09-01

    distribution unlimited 13. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES 14. ABSTRACT Lipotropes (methionine, choline, folate , and vitamin B12) are dietary methyl donors and...Lipotropes are methyl group (CH3) containing essential nutrients (methionine, choline, folate , and vitamin B12) and are important methyl donors...is highly dependent on methyl donors and cofactors (11, 17). The coenzymes necessary for DNA methylation reactions include folate , vitamin B12, and

  16. Common approach of risks analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Noviello, L.; Naviglio, A.

    1996-01-01

    Although, following the resolutions of the High German Court, the protection level of the human beings is an objective which can change in time, it is obvious that it is an important point when there is a risk for the population. This is true more particularly for the industrial plants whose possible accidents could affect the population. The accidents risk analysis indicates that there is no conceptual difference between the risks of a nuclear power plant and those of the other industrial plants as chemical plants, the gas distribution system and the hydraulic dams. A legislation analysis induced by the Seveso Directive for the industrial risks give some important indications which should always be followed. This work analyses more particularly the legislative situation in different European countries and identifies some of the most important characteristics. Indeed, for most of the countries, the situation is different and it is a later difficulties source for nuclear power plants. In order to strengthen this reasoning, this paper presents some preliminary results of an analysis of a nuclear power plant following the approach of other industrial plants. In conclusion, it will be necessary to analyse again the risks assessment approach for nuclear power plants because the real protection level of human beings in a country is determined by the less regulated of the dangerous industrial plants existing at the surroundings. (O.M.)

  17. Estimating nutrient releases from agriculture in China: An extended substance flow analysis framework and a modeling tool

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, M.; Chen, J.; Sun, F.

    2010-01-01

    Agriculture related pollution has attracted the attention of policy makers as well as scientists in China as its contribution to water impairment has increased, and quantitative information at the national and regional levels is being sought to support decision making. However, traditional approaches are either time-consuming, expensive (e.g. national surveys) or oversimplified and crude (e.g. coefficient methods). Therefore, this study proposed an extended substance flow analysis (SFA) framework to estimate nutrient releases from agricultural and rural activities in China by depicting the nutrient flows in Chinese agro-ecosystems. The six-step process proposed herein includes: (a) system definition; (b) model development; (c) database development; (d) model validation; (e) results interpretation; and (f) uncertainty analysis. The developed Eubolism (Elementary Unit based nutrient Balance mOdeLIng in agro-ecoSysteM) model combined a nutrient balance module with an emission inventory module to quantify the nutrient flows in the agro-ecosystem. The model was validated and then applied to estimate the total agricultural nutrient loads, identify the contribution of different agricultural and rural activities and different land use types to the total loads, and analyze the spatial pattern of agricultural nutrient emissions in China. These results could provide an entire picture of agricultural pollution at the national level and be used to support policy making. Furthermore, uncertainties associated with the structure of the elementary units, spatial resolution, and inputs/parameters were also analyzed to evaluate the robustness of the model results.

  18. Essential oil composition and nutrient analysis of selected medicinal plants in Sultanate of Oman

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Javid Hussain

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Objective: To evaluate the nutrients and essential oils of five medicinal plants, Juniperus excelsa (J. excelsa, Dodonaea viscosa, Euryops pinifolius, Teucrium polium (T. polium, and Helianthemum lippii that were collected from Jabal Al Akhdar, Oman. Methods: Proximate parameters (moisture, dry matter, ash, crude fats, proteins, fibers, nitrogen, carbohydrates, and energy values and nutrient analysis (K, Na, Ca, Fe, P, Mg etc. were evaluated in the five medicinal plants using standard techniques. On the basis of these analysis, T. polium and J. excels were selected for essential oil analysis using a rapid solvent-free microwave extraction method and GC-MS. Results: The results showed that leaves of J. excelsa had highest proportion of crude fats, fibers and energy value while ash was highest in T. polium. J. excelsa was also rich in essential minerals such as calcium, magnesium, potassium and iron while the trace elements and heavy metals composition was marginal. A rapid solvent-free microwave extraction method to extract oil from medicinal plants species showed that only T. polium and J. excelsa yielded oil. The chemical composition of essential oils showed higher proportion of delta-3-carene, limonene, β-eudesmol, ledeneoxide (II, α-trans-bergamatene, linalyl acetate and germacrene. Conclusions: J. excelsa and T. polium are a good source of proximate, minerals and essential oils, which can be considered for healthy life besides their medicinal values.

  19. Risk Characterization uncertainties associated description, sensitivity analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carrillo, M.; Tovar, M.; Alvarez, J.; Arraez, M.; Hordziejewicz, I.; Loreto, I.

    2013-01-01

    The power point presentation is about risks to the estimated levels of exposure, uncertainty and variability in the analysis, sensitivity analysis, risks from exposure to multiple substances, formulation of guidelines for carcinogenic and genotoxic compounds and risk subpopulations

  20. Atmospheric deposition of nutrients to north Florida rivers: A multivariate statistical analysis. Final report. Master's thesis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fu, J.

    1991-01-01

    Atmospheric nutrient input to the Apalachicola Bay estuary was studied because it has been demonstrated that atmospheric deposition can be a major source of nutrients to eastern U.S. estuaries. Besides the Apalachicola River, the Sopchoppy and the Ochlockonee were also selected for a comparative analysis. Receptor model, absolute principal of component analysis (APCA), and mass balance methods were applied in the study. The results of the study show that nitrogen is probably not a limiting nutrient in the three rivers because their N:P mole ratios are nearly 3 times higher than the Redfield ratio for photosynthesis. The total atmospheric nitrogen depositions in the three river watershed are at least as great as their river fluxes. In the Apalachicola River, the atmospheric source of nitrogen is found to be several times higher than the largest possible input of urban sewage. Atmospheric deposition, therefore, might be the dominant nitrogen source entering the estuary. The results of APCA show that Apalachicola River water is mainly a mixture of components that correspond in their compositions to aged rain, ground water, and fresh rain. Atmospheric nitrate deposition is the result of the air pollution, i.e., acid rain. The studies also show that the annual average deposition of nitrate has a narrow range, mainly from 5.8 to 11.5 kg/ha/yr in most of the NADP sites in the 8 southeastern states. Since all the software and data sets employed in the study are accessible nationwide, the methods could be applied in other watersheds

  1. Analysis of a sewage sludge for inorganic chemical contaminants and nutrients

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, R.

    1984-01-01

    This study forms part of the NIWR's series of interlaboratory comparison studies involving southern African laboratories engaged in water and wastewater analysis, and is concerned with the analysis by 29 laboratories of a sample of dried sewage sludge for various inorganic contaminants and nutrients by means of methods provided by the originating laboratory, the aim being to test these methods for their suitability for use in a proposed manual of methods for sewage sludge analysis. The results obtained are evaluated and discussed. From the results obtained, the suggested methods for the determination of pH, Kjeldahl, nitrogen, total phosphorus, calcium and magnesium, cadmium, chromium, copper, lead, nickel and zinc, mercury, and arsenic were considered to be sufficiently reliable for inclusion in the manual. It was recommended that further investigation be carried out on finding suitable methods for the determination of selenium, molybdenum, boron, and fluoride

  2. Environmental modeling and health risk analysis (ACTS/RISK)

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Aral, M. M

    2010-01-01

    ... presents a review of the topics of exposure and health risk analysis. The Analytical Contaminant Transport Analysis System (ACTS) and Health RISK Analysis (RISK) software tools are an integral part of the book and provide computational platforms for all the models discussed herein. The most recent versions of these two softwa...

  3. Geometric analysis of nutrient balancing in the mealworm beetle, Tenebrio molitor L. (Coleoptera: Tenebrionidae).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rho, Myung Suk; Lee, Kwang Pum

    2014-12-01

    Geometric analysis of the nutritional regulatory responses was performed on an omnivorous mealworm beetle, Tenebrio molitor L. (Coleoptera: Tenebrionidae) to test whether this beetle had the capacity to balance the intake of protein and carbohydrate. We also identified the pattern of ingestive trade-off employed when the insect was forced to balance the costs of over- and under-ingesting macronutrients. When allowed to mix their diet from two nutritionally imbalanced but complementary foods (protein-biased food: p35:c7 or p28:c5.6; carbohydrate-biased food: p7:c35 or p5.6:c28), beetles of both sexes actively regulated their intake of protein and carbohydrate to a ratio of 1:1. When confined to one of seven nutritionally imbalanced foods (p0:c42, p7:c35, p14:c28, p21:c21, p28:c14, p35:c7 or p42:c0), beetles over-ingested the excessive nutrient from these foods to such an extent that all the points of protein-carbohydrate intake aligned linearly in the nutrient space, a pattern that is characteristic of generalist feeders and omnivores. Under the restricted feeding conditions, males ate more nutrients but were less efficient at retaining their body lipids than females. Body lipid content was higher on carbohydrate-rich foods and was positively correlated with starvation resistance. Our results are consistent with the prediction based on the nutritional heterogeneity hypothesis, which links the nutritional regulatory responses of insects to their diet breadth and feeding ecology. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  4. Credit Risk Evaluation : Modeling - Analysis - Management

    OpenAIRE

    Wehrspohn, Uwe

    2002-01-01

    An analysis and further development of the building blocks of modern credit risk management: -Definitions of default -Estimation of default probabilities -Exposures -Recovery Rates -Pricing -Concepts of portfolio dependence -Time horizons for risk calculations -Quantification of portfolio risk -Estimation of risk measures -Portfolio analysis and portfolio improvement -Evaluation and comparison of credit risk models -Analytic portfolio loss distributions The thesis contributes to the evaluatio...

  5. Risk Analysis in Road Tunnels – Most Important Risk Indicators

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Berchtold, Florian; Knaust, Christian; Thöns, Sebastian

    2016-01-01

    Methodologies on fire risk analysis in road tunnels consider numerous factors affecting risks (risk indicators) and express the results by risk measures. But only few comprehensive studies on effects of risk indicators on risk measures are available. For this reason, this study quantifies...... the effects and highlights the most important risk indicators with the aim to support further developments in risk analysis. Therefore, a system model of a road tunnel was developed to determine the risk measures. The system model can be divided into three parts: the fire part connected to the fire model Fire...... Dynamics Simulator (FDS); the evacuation part connected to the evacuation model FDS+Evac; and the frequency part connected to a model to calculate the frequency of fires. This study shows that the parts of the system model (and their most important risk indicators) affect the risk measures in the following...

  6. What is a risk. [Quantitative risk analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schoen, G [Physikalisch-Technische Bundesanstalt, Braunschweig (Germany, F.R.)

    1979-02-01

    The following article is a revised version of a lecture given by the author during the VDE meeting 'Technical Expert Activities' in Brunswick. First of all, the concept of 'risk' is discussed which leads to a probability scale which then permits a definition of the 'justifiable risk' as the boundary between 'hazard' and 'safety'. The boundary is quantified indirectly from laws, regulations, instructions, etc. to the 'Technological rules' for special fields of application by minimum requirement data. These viewpoints described in detail are not only of substantial significance for the creation of safety regulations but also for their application and consequently for jurisdiction.

  7. Nutrient digestibility parameters as a tool for analysis of the intestinal health of broiler chickens

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anderson Mori

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The study was performed with the objective of verifying raw soy feed, oxidized oil feed, and a control group. Performance evaluation was done at 7, 14, and 21 days of age. Metabolism assay was carried out between the 17th and 20th days for nutrient digestibility analysis. On the 21st day, two birds per repetition were sent for necropsy and collection of intestine fragments (duodenum and jejunum for histomorphometric analysis. Eight to 14 days after treatment with Salmonella, individuals showed lower feed intake and feed conversion than the control group. Treatment with coccidiosis decreased all performance parameters in the control. Raw soybeans and oxidized oil induce lower weight gain and higher feed conversion compared to the control feed. Unlike after 14 days, at 21 days treatment with salmonella a decrease in weight gain was noted. For the group challenged by coccidiosis feed intake, the feed conversion remained lower than the control group. Undesirable effects on performance in the groups fed raw soybean and oxidized oil remained at up to 21 days. In the evaluation of digestibility, it was observed that raw soy had lower values for digestibility of dry matter, ether extract, and nitrogen balance due to intake. In addition, a lower ratio of villus:crypt measurements was observed. Lower villus height was found in the duodenum of the group challenged by coccidiosis. This group presented a positive correlation between the digestibility of ether extract and the duodenum, indicating that increased villus height implies an increased digestibility of ether extract. The results obtained for the jejunum showed a positive correlation with villus height in groups challenged by coccidiosis, raw soybeans, and oxidized oil; and to crypt depth in the group challenged with oxidized oil. The information obtained in the present study demonstrates that nutrient digestibility parameters can be useful tools for the analysis of the intestinal health of broiler

  8. Risk analysis in radiosurgery treatments using risk matrices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Delgado, J. M.; Sanchez Cayela, C.; Ramirez, M. L.; Perez, A.

    2011-01-01

    The aim of this study is the risk analysis process stereotactic single-dose radiotherapy and evaluation of those initiating events that lead to increased risk and a possible solution in the design of barriers.

  9. Data-driven nutrient analysis and reality check: Human inputs, catchment delivery and management effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Destouni, G.

    2017-12-01

    Measures for mitigating nutrient loads to aquatic ecosystems should have observable effects, e.g, in the Baltic region after joint first periods of nutrient management actions under the Baltic Sea Action Plan (BASP; since 2007) and the EU Water Framework Directive (WFD; since 2009). Looking for such observable effects, all openly available water and nutrient monitoring data since 2003 are compiled and analyzed for Sweden as a case study. Results show that hydro-climatically driven water discharge dominates the determination of waterborne loads of both phosphorus and nitrogen. Furthermore, the nutrient loads and water discharge are all similarly well correlated with the ecosystem status classification of Swedish water bodies according to the WFD. Nutrient concentrations, which are hydro-climatically correlated and should thus reflect human effects better than loads, have changed only slightly over the study period (2003-2013) and even increased in moderate-to-bad status waters, where the WFD and BSAP jointly target nutrient decreases. These results indicate insufficient distinction and mitigation of human-driven nutrient components by the internationally harmonized applications of both the WFD and the BSAP. Aiming for better general identification of such components, nutrient data for the large transboundary catchments of the Baltic Sea and the Sava River are compared. The comparison shows cross-regional consistency in nutrient relationships to driving hydro-climatic conditions (water discharge) for nutrient loads, and socio-economic conditions (population density and farmland share) for nutrient concentrations. A data-driven screening methodology is further developed for estimating nutrient input and retention-delivery in catchments. Its first application to nested Sava River catchments identifies characteristic regional values of nutrient input per area and relative delivery, and hotspots of much larger inputs, related to urban high-population areas.

  10. Molecular and risk-based approach to nutrient development for a proposed sub-surface biogasification field trial in a biogenic gas field

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lambo, Adewale J.; Strapoc, Dariusz; Pittenger, Michelle; Huizinga, Bradley [ConocoPhillips (Canada); Wood, Ladonna; Ashby, Matt [Taxon Biosciences (Canada)

    2011-07-01

    This paper presents the molecular and risk-based approach to nutrient development for a proposed sub-surface biogasification field trial in a biogenic gas field. From field sampling, variability was seen in water chemistry and environmental parameters across the field; DNA yield also varied across the field and showed distinct spatial variation. The composition of microbial populations and relative distribution of archaea populations in the Cooks Inlet water is represented using pie and bar charts. The nutrient recipe was developed using known information on nutrient requirements of mathematically correlated microbial associations. The process of on-site nutrient injection is explained. Some of the mitigation plans for the risks involved during the process include, among others, limiting biofilm prevalence and avoiding bio-plugging and bio-corrosion. Biofilm is likely to develop in the injection line but less likely in nutrient mixing due to the high nutrient concentration. From the study, it can be concluded that community composition correlates with field geochemical parameters and methane pathways.

  11. Risk Analysis Group annual progress report 1984

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1985-06-01

    The activities of the Risk Analysis Group at Risoe during 1984 are presented. These include descriptions in some detail of work on general development topics and risk analysis performed as contractor. (author)

  12. A statistical method to base nutrient recommendations on meta-analysis of intake and health-related status biomarkers.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hilko van der Voet

    Full Text Available Nutrient recommendations in use today are often derived from relatively old data of few studies with few individuals. However, for many nutrients, including vitamin B-12, extensive data have now become available from both observational studies and randomized controlled trials, addressing the relation between intake and health-related status biomarkers. The purpose of this article is to provide new methodology for dietary planning based on dose-response data and meta-analysis. The methodology builds on existing work, and is consistent with current methodology and measurement error models for dietary assessment. The detailed purposes of this paper are twofold. Firstly, to define a Population Nutrient Level (PNL for dietary planning in groups. Secondly, to show how data from different sources can be combined in an extended meta-analysis of intake-status datasets for estimating PNL as well as other nutrient intake values, such as the Average Nutrient Requirement (ANR and the Individual Nutrient Level (INL. For this, a computational method is presented for comparing a bivariate lognormal distribution to a health criterion value. Procedures to meta-analyse available data in different ways are described. Example calculations on vitamin B-12 requirements were made for four models, assuming different ways of estimating the dose-response relation, and different values of the health criterion. Resulting estimates of ANRs and less so for INLs were found to be sensitive to model assumptions, whereas estimates of PNLs were much less sensitive to these assumptions as they were closer to the average nutrient intake in the available data.

  13. RISK ANALYSIS IN MILK PROCESSING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. PIRVUTOIU

    2008-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper aimed to evaluate Risk bankruptcy using “Score Method” based on Canon and Holder’s Model. The data were collected from the Balance Sheet and Profit and Loss Account for the period 2005-2007, recorded by a Meat processing Plant (Rador Commercial Company .The study has put in evidence the financial situation of the company,the level of the main financial ratios fundamenting the calculation of Z score function value in the three years The low values of Z score function recorded every year reflects that the company is still facing backruptcy. However , the worst situation was recorded in the years 2005 and 2006, when baknruptcy risk was ranging between 70 – 80 % . In the year 2007, the risk bankruptcy was lower, ranging between 50-70 % , as Z function recorded a value lower than 4 .For Meat processing companies such an analysis is compulsory at present as long as business environment is very risky in our country.

  14. Simple procedure for nutrient analysis of coffee plant with energy dispersive X-ray fluorescence spectrometry (EDXRF)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tezotto, Tiago; Favarin, Jose Laercio; Neto, Ana Paula; Azevedo, Ricardo Antunes, E-mail: tiago.tezotto@usp.br [Escola Superior de Agricultura Luiz de Queiroz (ESALQ/USP), Piracicaba, SP (Brazil); Gratao, Priscila Lupino [Universidade Estadual Paulista Julio de Mesquita Filho (UNESP/ FCAV), Jaboticabal, SP (Brazil). Dept. de Biologia Aplicada a Agropecuaria; Mazzafera, Paulo [Universidade Estadual de Campinas (UNICAMP/IB), SP (Brazil). Dept. Biologia Vegetal

    2013-07-15

    Nutrient analysis is used to estimate nutrient content of crop plants to manage fertilizer application for sustained crop production. Direct solid analysis of agricultural and environmental samples by energy dispersive X-ray fluorescence spectrometry (EDXRF) was chosen as alternative technique to evaluate the simultaneous multielemental quantification of the most important essential elements in coffee (Coffea arabica L.) plants. Inductively coupled plasma atomic emission spectrometry and certified reference materials made from leaves were used to calibrate and check the trueness of EDXRF method for the determination of the concentration of several nutrients in coffee leaves and branches. Fluorescence spectrometry proved to be advantageous and presented low cost as loose powder samples could be used. Samples collected from a field experiment where coffee plants were treated with excess of Ni and Zn were used to verify the practical application of the method. Good relationships were achieved between certified values and data obtained by EDXRF, with recoveries ranging from 82 to 117 %.(author)

  15. Risk analysis; Analisis de riesgos

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baron, J H; Nunez McLeod, J; Rivera, S S [Universidad Nacional de Cuyo, Mendoza (Argentina). Instituto de Capacitacion Especial y Desarrollo de Ingenieria Asistida por Computadora (CEDIAC)

    1997-07-01

    This book contains a selection of research works performed in the CEDIAC Institute (Cuyo National University) in the area of Risk Analysis, with specific orientations to the subjects of uncertainty and sensitivity studies, software reliability, severe accident modeling, etc. This volume presents important material for all those researches who want to have an insight in the risk analysis field, as a tool to solution several problems frequently found in the engineering and applied sciences field, as well as for the academic teachers who want to keep up to date, including the new developments and improvements continuously arising in this field. [Spanish] Este libro contiene una seleccion de trabajos de investigacion realizados dentro del Instituto de Capacitacion Especial y Desarrollo de la Ingenieria Asistida por Computadora en el area del analisis de riesgos, con una orientacion hacia el estudio de incertidumbres y sensibilidad, confiabilidad de software, modelacion de accidentes severos, etc. Este volumen recoge un material de indudable importancia e interes para todos aquellos investigadores y profesionales que desean incursionar en este campo del analisis de riesgos como herramienta para la solucion de problemas frecuentemente encontrados en la ingenieria y las ciencias aplicadas, asi como para los academicos que desean mantenerse al dia, conociendo los nuevos desarrollos y tecnicas que constantemente aparecen en su area.

  16. A background to risk analysis. Vol. 3

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Taylor, J.R.

    1979-01-01

    This 4-volumes report gives a background of ideas, principles, and examples which might be of use in developing practical methods for risk analysis. Some of the risk analysis techniques described are somewhat experimental. The report is written in an introductory style, but where some point needs further justifi- cation or evaluation, this is given in the form of a chapter appenix. In this way, it is hoped that the report can serve two purposes, - as a basis for starting risk analysis work and as a basis for discussing effectiveness of risk analysis procedures. The report should be seen as a preliminary stage, prior to a program of industrial trials of risk analysis methods. Vol. 3 contains chapters on quantification of risk, failure and accident probability, risk analysis and design, and examles of risk analysis for process plant. (BP)

  17. A background risk analysis. Vol. 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Taylor, J.R.

    1979-01-01

    This 4-volumes report gives a background of ideas, principles, and examples which might be of use in developing practical methods for risk analysis. Some of the risk analysis techniques, described are somewhat experimental. The report is written in an introductory style, but where some point needs further justification or evaluation, this is given in the form of a chapter appendix. In this way, it is hoped that the report can serve two purposes, - as a basis for starting risk analysis work and as a basis for discussing effectiveness of risk analysis procedures. The report should be seen as a preliminary stage, prior to a program of industrial trials of risk analysis methods. Vol. 1 contains a short history of risk analysis, and chapters on risk, failures, errors and accidents, and general procedures for risk analysis. (BP)

  18. Identifying critical nutrient intake in groups at risk of poverty in Europe: the CHANCE project approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nikolić, Marina; Glibetić, Maria; Gurinović, Mirjana; Milešević, Jelena; Khokhar, Santosh; Chillo, Stefania; Abaravicius, Jonas Algis; Bordoni, Alessandra; Capozzi, Francesco

    2014-04-02

    The aim of the CHANCE project is to develop novel and affordable nutritious foods to optimize the diet and reduce the risk of diet-related diseases among groups at risk of poverty (ROP). This paper describes the methodology used in the two initial steps to accomplish the project's objective as follows: 1. a literature review of existing data and 2. an identification of ROP groups with which to design and perform the CHANCE nutritional survey, which will supply new data that is useful for formulating the new CHANCE food. Based on the literature review, a low intake of fruit and vegetables, whole grain products, fish, energy, fiber, vitamins B1, B2, B3, B6, B12 and C, folate, calcium, magnesium, iron, potassium and zinc and a high intake of starchy foods, processed meat and sodium were apparent. However, the available data appeared fragmented because of the different methodologies used in the studies. A more global vision of the main nutritional problems that are present among low-income people in Europe is needed, and the first step to achieve this goal is the use of common criteria to define the risk of poverty. The scoring system described here represents novel criteria for defining at-risk-of-poverty groups not only in the CHANCE-participating countries but also all over Europe.

  19. Identifying Critical Nutrient Intake in Groups at Risk of Poverty in Europe: The CHANCE Project Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nikolić, Marina; Glibetić, Maria; Gurinović, Mirjana; Milešević, Jelena; Khokhar, Santosh; Chillo, Stefania; Abaravicius, Jonas Algis; Bordoni, Alessandra; Capozzi, Francesco

    2014-01-01

    The aim of the CHANCE project is to develop novel and affordable nutritious foods to optimize the diet and reduce the risk of diet-related diseases among groups at risk of poverty (ROP). This paper describes the methodology used in the two initial steps to accomplish the project’s objective as follows: 1. a literature review of existing data and 2. an identification of ROP groups with which to design and perform the CHANCE nutritional survey, which will supply new data that is useful for formulating the new CHANCE food. Based on the literature review, a low intake of fruit and vegetables, whole grain products, fish, energy, fiber, vitamins B1, B2, B3, B6, B12 and C, folate, calcium, magnesium, iron, potassium and zinc and a high intake of starchy foods, processed meat and sodium were apparent. However, the available data appeared fragmented because of the different methodologies used in the studies. A more global vision of the main nutritional problems that are present among low-income people in Europe is needed, and the first step to achieve this goal is the use of common criteria to define the risk of poverty. The scoring system described here represents novel criteria for defining at-risk-of-poverty groups not only in the CHANCE-participating countries but also all over Europe. PMID:24699195

  20. Identifying Critical Nutrient Intake in Groups at Risk of Poverty in Europe: The CHANCE Project Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marina Nikolić

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the CHANCE project is to develop novel and affordable nutritious foods to optimize the diet and reduce the risk of diet-related diseases among groups at risk of poverty (ROP. This paper describes the methodology used in the two initial steps to accomplish the project’s objective as follows: 1. a literature review of existing data and 2. an identification of ROP groups with which to design and perform the CHANCE nutritional survey, which will supply new data that is useful for formulating the new CHANCE food. Based on the literature review, a low intake of fruit and vegetables, whole grain products, fish, energy, fiber, vitamins B1, B2, B3, B6, B12 and C, folate, calcium, magnesium, iron, potassium and zinc and a high intake of starchy foods, processed meat and sodium were apparent. However, the available data appeared fragmented because of the different methodologies used in the studies. A more global vision of the main nutritional problems that are present among low-income people in Europe is needed, and the first step to achieve this goal is the use of common criteria to define the risk of poverty. The scoring system described here represents novel criteria for defining at-risk-of-poverty groups not only in the CHANCE-participating countries but also all over Europe.

  1. Transcriptomic analysis displays the effect of (-)-roemerine on the motility and nutrient uptake in Escherichia coli.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ayyildiz, Dilara; Arga, Kazim Yalcin; Avci, Fatma Gizem; Altinisik, Fatma Ece; Gurer, Caglayan; Gulsoy Toplan, Gizem; Kazan, Dilek; Wozny, Katharina; Brügger, Britta; Mertoglu, Bulent; Sariyar Akbulut, Berna

    2017-08-01

    Among the different families of plant alkaloids, (-)-roemerine, an aporphine type, was recently shown to possess significant antibacterial activity in Escherichia coli. Based on the increasing demand for antibacterials with novel mechanisms of action, the present work investigates the potential of the plant-derived alkaloid (-)-roemerine as an antibacterial in E. coli cells using microarray technology. Analysis of the genome-wide transcriptional reprogramming in cells after 60 min treatment with 100 μg/mL (-)-roemerine showed significant changes in the expression of 241 genes (p value 2). Expression of selected genes was confirmed by qPCR. Differentially expressed genes were classified into functional categories to map biological processes and molecular pathways involved. Cellular activities with roles in carbohydrate transport and metabolism, energy production and conversion, lipid transport and metabolism, amino acid transport and metabolism, two-component signaling systems, and cell motility (in particular, the flagellar organization and motility) were among metabolic processes altered in the presence of (-)-roemerine. The down-regulation of the outer membrane proteins probably led to a decrease in carbohydrate uptake rate, which in turn results in nutrient limitation. Consequently, energy metabolism is slowed down. Interestingly, the majority of the expressional alterations were found in the flagellar system. This suggested reduction in motility and loss in the ability to form biofilms, thus affecting protection of E. coli against host cell defense mechanisms. In summary, our findings suggest that the antimicrobial action of (-)-roemerine in E. coli is linked to disturbances in motility and nutrient uptake.

  2. Analysis of toxic elements and macro-micro nutrients in food stuff by using neutron activation analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rina Mulyaningsih, Th.; Istanto; Saeful Yusuf; Siti Suprapti

    2010-01-01

    Determination of toxic elements and macro-micro nutrient in food stuff by neutron activation analysis (NAA) has been done. The kinds of samples are vegetables, legume, mace and flavor, flour, fish and flesh. Samples had been collected from market in Serpong. Analysis of the samples show macro nutrients with concentration >1000 mg/kg, as K, Ca, Mg, Na, and Cl; micronutrients with concentration 10 - 100 mg/kg: Fe, Mn, Zn, Se, Br, Rb, and La; and toxic elements with concentration below 5 mg/kg as Co, Sb, Hg, As and Cr. As concentration in fish and rice and Hg concentration in fish and red chili is exceed from government permission value. Zinc concentration in some kind of samples is more than permission value, but it should be considered because of its average daily intake is lower then recommended value 15 mg/day. The Zn deficiencies can disturb growth and metabolism. Al concentration in samples is high enough 10 – 500 mg/kg; it must be take into account serious attention because of its toxicity. Evaluation of these elements is compared to sufficiency value of daily requirement RDA (Recommended Daily Acceptable). In this study was discussed potential hazards for human while its deficiencies or excessive intake. (author)

  3. Riscos da interação droga-nutriente em idosos de instituição de longa permanência Riesgos de interacción droga-nutriente en ancianos de institución de larga permanencia Risks of drug-nutrient interaction for the elderly in long-term care institutions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jessica Sereno Peixoto

    2012-09-01

    salud a través de una cuidadosa evaluación de los medicamentos, la dieta y la interacción entre ellos, para beneficiar a los ancianos con mejor aprovechamiento de la terapéutica.This study was aimed at verifying the risks of drug-nutrient interactions in the elderly residents of a Long-Term Care Institution. Descriptive study of quantitative approach, performed in 73 elderly people. Data collection occurred in 2008 through analysis of medical records, diet history and evaluation of the BMI. Data evidenced that the drugs more frequently used were the ones for nervous and cardiovascular systems, totaling approximately 66% of the prescriptions; among the 375 drugs prescribed, 166 make some type of interaction, 32.0% reduce the effect of drug absorption when there is use with caffeine and 14.3% reduce the B12 vitamin absorption. Taking several drugs of continuous use may cause damage to the absorption of nutrients. The action of the health team becomes vital, through careful evaluation of the administered drugs, diet and interaction between them, to benefit the elderly with a better use of the therapeutics and improvement of the nutritional conditions.

  4. The 2015 Dietary Guidelines for Americans is associated with a more nutrient-dense diet and a lower risk of obesity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jessri, Mahsa; Lou, Wendy Y; L'Abbé, Mary R

    2016-11-01

    Dietary pattern analysis represents a departure from the traditional focus on single foods and nutrients and provides a comprehensive understanding of the role of the diet in chronic disease prevention and etiology. Dietary patterns of Canadians have not been evaluated comprehensively with the use of an updated a priori dietary quality index. We aimed to update the Dietary Guidelines for Americans Adherence Index (DGAI) on the basis of the 2015 Dietary Guidelines for Americans (DGA), to evaluate the construct validity and reliability of the revised index, and to examine whether closer adherence to this index is associated with a lower risk of obesity with or without an accompanying chronic disease. Data from 11,748 participants (≥18 y of age) in the cross-sectional Canadian Community Health Survey cycle 2.2 were used in weighted multivariate analyses. Multinomial logistic regression was used to test the association between diet quality and obesity risk. With the use of principal component analyses, the multidimensionality of the 2015 DGAI was confirmed, and its reliability was shown with a high Cronbach's α = 0.75. Moving from the first to the fourth (healthiest) quartile of the 2015 DGAI score, there was a trend toward decreased energy (2492 ± 26 compared with 2403 ± 22 kcal, respectively; ±SE) and nutrients of concern (e.g., sodium), whereas intakes of beneficial nutrients increased (P-trend obese from 1.42 (95% CI: 1.02, 1.99) in quartile 3 to 2.08 (95% CI: 1.49, 2.90) in quartile 2 to 2.31 (95% CI: 1.65, 3.23) in the first quartile of the 2015 DGAI score, compared with the fourth quartile (healthiest) (P-trend obese without a chronic disease (healthy obese) and having a chronic disease without being obese also increased in the lowest DGAI quartile compared with the highest DGAI quartile, albeit not as much as in the unhealthy obese group. The 2015 DGAI provides a valid and reliable measure of diet quality among Canadians. © 2016 American Society for

  5. Nutrient and Food Group Analysis in the 2016 ASA24® System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Researchers, clinicians, and educators can use the ASA24 system to analyze 65 nutrients and 37 food groups (U.S. and Canadian versions) from food recall or record data. Analyses for ASA24-Australia-2016 provide 41 nutrients and no food groups.

  6. Nutrient-dense, Plant-rich Dietary Intervention Effective at Reducing Cardiovascular Disease Risk Factors for Worksites: A Pilot Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sutliffe, Jay Thomas; Fuhrman, Joel Harvey; Carnot, Mary Jo; Beetham, Raena Marie; Peddy, Madison Sarah

    2016-09-01

    conduct interventions for health promotion and disease prevention to ameliorate chronic risk factors for disease, such as for cardiovascular disease (CVD). Likewise, nutrient-dense, plant-rich (NDPR) dietary patterns have been shown to be effective at preventing and improving chronic-disease conditions, including CVD. Objective • The study's aim was to determine the feasibility and effectiveness of an NDPR dietary intervention for worksites to lower CVD risk factors. Design • The study was a 6-wk pilot intervention using a pretest and posttest design. The intervention was conducted at the Northern Arizona University (Flagstaff, AZ, USA) and sponsored by its Employee Assistance and Wellness Department. Participants • Participants were 35 employees with body mass indexes (BMIs) >25 kg/m2 who were ready and willing to make a lifestyle change, who were not currently participating in a weight loss program, and who were not taking any medications that could increase medical risk or had weight loss as a primary side effect. The average age of participants was 42.57 y; 91.4% were female, and 80% were Caucasian. Intervention • The intervention used a dietary protocol consisting of the daily consumption of greens, beans, legumes, and a variety of other vegetables, as well as fresh or frozen whole fruits, nuts, seeds, and whole grains. Participants were encouraged to minimize the consumption of refined grains, vegetable oils, processed foods, and animal products. Outcome Measures • The study measured serum lipids, height, weight, waist and hip circumference, waist-to-hip ratio, and blood pressure. Results • Based on paired-sample t tests and Wilcoxon signed-ranks test with a maximum level of P = .05, the intervention resulted in significant changes in weight, BMI, waist and hip measurements, high-density lipoproteins, low-density lipoproteins, and estimated average glucose. Conclusions • The findings favorably revealed that an NDPR dietary intervention that was

  7. Validity of electronic diet recording nutrient estimates compared to dietitian analysis of diet records: A randomized controlled trial

    Science.gov (United States)

    Background: Dietary intake assessment with diet records (DR) is a standard research and practice tool in nutrition. Manual entry and analysis of DR is time-consuming and expensive. New electronic tools for diet entry by clients and research participants may reduce the cost and effort of nutrient int...

  8. The relationship between macro- and micro-nutrients intake and risk of preterm premature rupture of membranes in pregnant women of Isfahan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Akbar Hassanzadeh

    2016-01-01

    Conclusions: The mean value of mentioned received nutrients in subjects who experienced PPROM later in pregnancy was higher than the others, which is independent of demographic and reproductive characteristic, estimated physical activity, and supplementation. Therefore, these findings could be considered in the nutritional programming for pregnant women to manage the risk of PPROM.

  9. RAMS (Risk Analysis - Modular System) methodology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stenner, R.D.; Strenge, D.L.; Buck, J.W. [and others

    1996-10-01

    The Risk Analysis - Modular System (RAMS) was developed to serve as a broad scope risk analysis tool for the Risk Assessment of the Hanford Mission (RAHM) studies. The RAHM element provides risk analysis support for Hanford Strategic Analysis and Mission Planning activities. The RAHM also provides risk analysis support for the Hanford 10-Year Plan development activities. The RAMS tool draws from a collection of specifically designed databases and modular risk analysis methodologies and models. RAMS is a flexible modular system that can be focused on targeted risk analysis needs. It is specifically designed to address risks associated with overall strategy, technical alternative, and `what if` questions regarding the Hanford cleanup mission. RAMS is set up to address both near-term and long-term risk issues. Consistency is very important for any comparative risk analysis, and RAMS is designed to efficiently and consistently compare risks and produce risk reduction estimates. There is a wide range of output information that can be generated by RAMS. These outputs can be detailed by individual contaminants, waste forms, transport pathways, exposure scenarios, individuals, populations, etc. However, they can also be in rolled-up form to support high-level strategy decisions.

  10. Toward a transport-based analysis of nutrient spiraling and uptake in streams

    Science.gov (United States)

    Runkel, Robert L.

    2007-01-01

    Nutrient addition experiments are designed to study the cycling of nutrients in stream ecosystems where hydrologic and nonhydrologic processes determine nutrient fate. Because of the importance of hydrologic processes in stream ecosystems, a conceptual model known as nutrient spiraling is frequently employed. A central part of the nutrient spiraling approach is the determination of uptake length (SW), the average distance traveled by dissolved nutrients in the water column before uptake. Although the nutrient spiraling concept has been an invaluable tool in stream ecology, the current practice of estimating uptake length from steady-state nutrient data using linear regression (called here the "SW approach") presents a number of limitations. These limitations are identified by comparing the exponential SW equation with analytical solutions of a stream solute transport model. This comparison indicates that (1) SW, is an aggregate measure of uptake that does not distinguish between main channel and storage zone processes, (2) SW, is an integrated measure of numerous hydrologie and nonhydrologic processes-this process integration may lead to difficulties in interpretation when comparing estimates of SW, and (3) estimates of uptake velocity and areal uptake rate (Vf and U) based on S W, are not independent of system hydrology. Given these findings, a transport-based approach to nutrient spiraling is presented for steady-state and time-series data sets. The transport-based approach for time-series data sets is suggested for future research on nutrient uptake as it provides a number of benefits, including the ability to (1) separately quantify main channel and storage zone uptake, (2) quantify specific hydrologic and nonhydrologic processes using various model parameters (process separation), (3) estimate uptake velocities and areal uptake rates that are independent of hydrologic effects, and (4) use short-term, non-plateau nutrient additions such that the effects of

  11. Streamlining project delivery through risk analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-08-01

    Project delivery is a significant area of concern and is subject to several risks throughout Plan Development : Process (PDP). These risks are attributed to major areas of project development, such as environmental : analysis, right-of-way (ROW) acqu...

  12. Transcriptional Analysis Allows Genome Reannotation and Reveals that Cryptococcus gattii VGII Undergoes Nutrient Restriction during Infection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patrícia Aline Gröhs Ferrareze

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Cryptococcus gattii is a human and animal pathogen that infects healthy hosts and caused the Pacific Northwest outbreak of cryptococcosis. The inhalation of infectious propagules can lead to internalization of cryptococcal cells by alveolar macrophages, a niche in which C. gattii cells can survive and proliferate. Although the nutrient composition of macrophages is relatively unknown, the high induction of amino acid transporter genes inside the phagosome indicates a preference for amino acid uptake instead of synthesis. However, the presence of countable errors in the R265 genome annotation indicates significant inhibition of transcriptomic analysis in this hypervirulent strain. Thus, we analyzed RNA-Seq data from in vivo and in vitro cultures of C. gattii R265 to perform the reannotation of the genome. In addition, based on in vivo transcriptomic data, we identified highly expressed genes and pathways of amino acid metabolism that would enable C. gattii to survive and proliferate in vivo. Importantly, we identified high expression in three APC amino acid transporters as well as the GABA permease. The use of amino acids as carbon and nitrogen sources, releasing ammonium and generating carbohydrate metabolism intermediaries, also explains the high expression of components of several degradative pathways, since glucose starvation is an important host defense mechanism.

  13. LBA-ECO ND-30 Nutrient Analysis and Gas Fluxes, Forest Chronosequences, Para, Brazil:

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This data set provides fine litterfall mass and nutrient concentrations from samples collected at chronosequences established at Sao Francisco do Para and Capitao...

  14. LBA-ECO ND-30 Nutrient Analysis and Gas Fluxes, Forest Chronosequences, Para, Brazil:

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — ABSTRACT: This data set provides fine litterfall mass and nutrient concentrations from samples collected at chronosequences established at Sao Francisco do Para and...

  15. LBA-ECO ND-30 Nutrient Analysis and Gas Fluxes, Forest Chronosequences, Para, Brazil

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This data set provides fine litterfall mass and nutrient concentrations from samples collected at chronosequences established at Sao Francisco do Para and Capitao...

  16. Analysis of growth characteristics of filamentous fungi in different nutrient media.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Meletiadis, J.; Meis, J.F.G.M.; Mouton, J.W.; Verweij, P.E.

    2001-01-01

    A microbroth kinetic model based on turbidity measurements was developed in order to analyze the growth characteristics of three species of filamentous fungi (Rhizopus microsporus, Aspergillus fumigatus, and Scedosporium prolificans) characterized by different growth rates in five nutrient media

  17. Analysis of possible food/nutrient and drug interactions in hospitalized patients

    OpenAIRE

    Lopes, Everton Moraes; Carvalho, Rumão Batista Nunes de; Freitas, Rivelilson Mendes de

    2010-01-01

    ABSTRACT Objective: To evaluate the prescription in relation to the possible interactions between drugs and foods/nutrients in the diets of patients in the Hospital Regional Justino Luz in the municipality of Picos, Piauí, Brazil. Methods: The sample consisted of 60 medical records of patients admitted at the hospital. The records were analyzed according to the presence or absence of interactions between drugs and foods/nutrients of the prescribed diets. Results: Of the 82 drugs prescribed...

  18. Model analysis of riparian buffer effectiveness for reducing nutrient inputs to streams in agricultural landscapes

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKane, R. B.; M, S.; F, P.; Kwiatkowski, B. L.; Rastetter, E. B.

    2006-12-01

    Federal and state agencies responsible for protecting water quality rely mainly on statistically-based methods to assess and manage risks to the nation's streams, lakes and estuaries. Although statistical approaches provide valuable information on current trends in water quality, process-based simulation models are essential for understanding and forecasting how changes in human activities across complex landscapes impact the transport of nutrients and contaminants to surface waters. To address this need, we developed a broadly applicable, process-based watershed simulator that links a spatially-explicit hydrologic model and a terrestrial biogeochemistry model (MEL). See Stieglitz et al. and Pan et al., this meeting, for details on the design and verification of this simulator. Here we apply the watershed simulator to a generalized agricultural setting to demonstrate its potential for informing policy and management decisions concerning water quality. This demonstration specifically explores the effectiveness of riparian buffers for reducing the transport of nitrogenous fertilizers from agricultural fields to streams. The interaction of hydrologic and biogeochemical processes represented in our simulator allows several important questions to be addressed. (1) For a range of upland fertilization rates, to what extent do riparian buffers reduce nitrogen inputs to streams? (2) How does buffer effectiveness change over time as the plant-soil system approaches N-saturation? (3) How can buffers be managed to increase their effectiveness, e.g., through periodic harvest and replanting? The model results illustrate that, while the answers to these questions depend to some extent on site factors (climatic regime, soil properties and vegetation type), in all cases riparian buffers have a limited capacity to reduce nitrogen inputs to streams where fertilization rates approach those typically used for intensive agriculture (e.g., 200 kg N per ha per year for corn in the U

  19. Prospective association between a dietary quality index based on a nutrient profiling system and cardiovascular disease risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adriouch, Solia; Julia, Chantal; Kesse-Guyot, Emmanuelle; Méjean, Caroline; Ducrot, Pauline; Péneau, Sandrine; Donnenfeld, Mathilde; Deschasaux, Mélanie; Menai, Mehdi; Hercberg, Serge; Touvier, Mathilde; Fezeu, Léopold K

    2016-10-01

    Public health strategies are essential to guide consumers' choices and produce a substantial population impact on cardiovascular disease risk prevention through nutrition. Our aim was to investigate the prospective association between the Food Standards Agency nutrient profiling system dietary index (FSA-NPS DI) and cardiovascular disease risk. The FSA-NPS has been proposed to serve as a basis for a five-colour nutrition label suggested in France to be put on the front of pack of food products. A total of 6515 participants to the SU.VI.MAX cohort (1994-2007), who completed at least six 24-hour dietary records during the first two years of the study, were followed for a median of 12.4 years (25th-75th percentiles: 11.0-12.6). Multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were used to characterise the associations between FSA-NPS DI (continuous and sex-specific quartiles) and the incidence of cardiovascular diseases. Interactions with individual characteristics were tested; 181 major cardiovascular events were reported (59 myocardial infarctions, 43 strokes, 79 anginas). A higher FSA-NPS DI, characterising poorer food choices, was associated with an overall increase in cardiovascular disease risk (HRfor a 1-point increment = 1.14 (1.03-1.27); HRQ4vs.Q1 = 1.61 (1.05-2.47), Ptrend Q4-Q1 = 0.03). This association tended to be stronger in smokers (HRfor a 1-point increment = 1.39 (1.11-1.73); Pinteraction = 0.01) and those less physically active (HRfor a 1-point increment = 1.26 (1.08-1.46); Pinteraction = 0.04). Our results suggest that poorer food choices, as reflected by a higher FSA-NPS DI, may be associated with a significant increase in cardiovascular risk, especially in at-risk individuals (smokers and physically inactive persons). This score could be a useful tool for public health prevention strategies. ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT00272428. © The European Society of Cardiology 2016.

  20. Improving Crop Yield and Nutrient Use Efficiency via Biofertilization—A Global Meta-analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lukas Schütz

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The application of microbial inoculants (biofertilizers is a promising technology for future sustainable farming systems in view of rapidly decreasing phosphorus stocks and the need to more efficiently use available nitrogen (N. Various microbial taxa are currently used as biofertilizers, based on their capacity to access nutrients from fertilizers and soil stocks, to fix atmospheric nitrogen, to improve water uptake or to act as biocontrol agents. Despite the existence of a considerable knowledge on effects of specific taxa of biofertilizers, a comprehensive quantitative assessment of the performance of biofertilizers with different traits such as phosphorus solubilization and N fixation applied to various crops at a global scale is missing. We conducted a meta-analysis to quantify benefits of biofertilizers in terms of yield increase, nitrogen and phosphorus use efficiency, based on 171 peer reviewed publications that met eligibility criteria. Major findings are: (i the superiority of biofertilizer performance in dry climates over other climatic regions (yield response: dry climate +20.0 ± 1.7%, tropical climate +14.9 ± 1.2%, oceanic climate +10.0 ± 3.7%, continental climate +8.5 ± 2.4%; (ii meta-regression analyses revealed that yield response due to biofertilizer application was generally small at low soil P levels; efficacy increased along higher soil P levels in the order arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF, P solubilizers, and N fixers; (iii meta-regressions showed that the success of inoculation with AMF was greater at low organic matter content and at neutral pH. Our comprehensive analysis provides a basis and guidance for proper choice and application of biofertilizers.

  1. Improving Crop Yield and Nutrient Use Efficiency via Biofertilization—A Global Meta-analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schütz, Lukas; Gattinger, Andreas; Meier, Matthias; Müller, Adrian; Boller, Thomas; Mäder, Paul; Mathimaran, Natarajan

    2018-01-01

    The application of microbial inoculants (biofertilizers) is a promising technology for future sustainable farming systems in view of rapidly decreasing phosphorus stocks and the need to more efficiently use available nitrogen (N). Various microbial taxa are currently used as biofertilizers, based on their capacity to access nutrients from fertilizers and soil stocks, to fix atmospheric nitrogen, to improve water uptake or to act as biocontrol agents. Despite the existence of a considerable knowledge on effects of specific taxa of biofertilizers, a comprehensive quantitative assessment of the performance of biofertilizers with different traits such as phosphorus solubilization and N fixation applied to various crops at a global scale is missing. We conducted a meta-analysis to quantify benefits of biofertilizers in terms of yield increase, nitrogen and phosphorus use efficiency, based on 171 peer reviewed publications that met eligibility criteria. Major findings are: (i) the superiority of biofertilizer performance in dry climates over other climatic regions (yield response: dry climate +20.0 ± 1.7%, tropical climate +14.9 ± 1.2%, oceanic climate +10.0 ± 3.7%, continental climate +8.5 ± 2.4%); (ii) meta-regression analyses revealed that yield response due to biofertilizer application was generally small at low soil P levels; efficacy increased along higher soil P levels in the order arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF), P solubilizers, and N fixers; (iii) meta-regressions showed that the success of inoculation with AMF was greater at low organic matter content and at neutral pH. Our comprehensive analysis provides a basis and guidance for proper choice and application of biofertilizers. PMID:29375594

  2. Improving Crop Yield and Nutrient Use Efficiency via Biofertilization-A Global Meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schütz, Lukas; Gattinger, Andreas; Meier, Matthias; Müller, Adrian; Boller, Thomas; Mäder, Paul; Mathimaran, Natarajan

    2017-01-01

    The application of microbial inoculants (biofertilizers) is a promising technology for future sustainable farming systems in view of rapidly decreasing phosphorus stocks and the need to more efficiently use available nitrogen (N). Various microbial taxa are currently used as biofertilizers, based on their capacity to access nutrients from fertilizers and soil stocks, to fix atmospheric nitrogen, to improve water uptake or to act as biocontrol agents. Despite the existence of a considerable knowledge on effects of specific taxa of biofertilizers, a comprehensive quantitative assessment of the performance of biofertilizers with different traits such as phosphorus solubilization and N fixation applied to various crops at a global scale is missing. We conducted a meta-analysis to quantify benefits of biofertilizers in terms of yield increase, nitrogen and phosphorus use efficiency, based on 171 peer reviewed publications that met eligibility criteria. Major findings are: (i) the superiority of biofertilizer performance in dry climates over other climatic regions (yield response: dry climate +20.0 ± 1.7%, tropical climate +14.9 ± 1.2%, oceanic climate +10.0 ± 3.7%, continental climate +8.5 ± 2.4%); (ii) meta-regression analyses revealed that yield response due to biofertilizer application was generally small at low soil P levels; efficacy increased along higher soil P levels in the order arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF), P solubilizers, and N fixers; (iii) meta-regressions showed that the success of inoculation with AMF was greater at low organic matter content and at neutral pH. Our comprehensive analysis provides a basis and guidance for proper choice and application of biofertilizers.

  3. Investigating multiple candidate genes and nutrients in the folate metabolism pathway to detect genetic and nutritional risk factors for lung cancer.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael D Swartz

    Full Text Available PURPOSE: Folate metabolism, with its importance to DNA repair, provides a promising region for genetic investigation of lung cancer risk. This project investigates genes (MTHFR, MTR, MTRR, CBS, SHMT1, TYMS, folate metabolism related nutrients (B vitamins, methionine, choline, and betaine and their gene-nutrient interactions. METHODS: We analyzed 115 tag single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs and 15 nutrients from 1239 and 1692 non-Hispanic white, histologically-confirmed lung cancer cases and controls, respectively, using stochastic search variable selection (a Bayesian model averaging approach. Analyses were stratified by current, former, and never smoking status. RESULTS: Rs6893114 in MTRR (odds ratio [OR] = 2.10; 95% credible interval [CI]: 1.20-3.48 and alcohol (drinkers vs. non-drinkers, OR = 0.48; 95% CI: 0.26-0.84 were associated with lung cancer risk in current smokers. Rs13170530 in MTRR (OR = 1.70; 95% CI: 1.10-2.87 and two SNP*nutrient interactions [betaine*rs2658161 (OR = 0.42; 95% CI: 0.19-0.88 and betaine*rs16948305 (OR = 0.54; 95% CI: 0.30-0.91] were associated with lung cancer risk in former smokers. SNPs in MTRR (rs13162612; OR = 0.25; 95% CI: 0.11-0.58; rs10512948; OR = 0.61; 95% CI: 0.41-0.90; rs2924471; OR = 3.31; 95% CI: 1.66-6.59, and MTHFR (rs9651118; OR = 0.63; 95% CI: 0.43-0.95 and three SNP*nutrient interactions (choline*rs10475407; OR = 1.62; 95% CI: 1.11-2.42; choline*rs11134290; OR = 0.51; 95% CI: 0.27-0.92; and riboflavin*rs8767412; OR = 0.40; 95% CI: 0.15-0.95 were associated with lung cancer risk in never smokers. CONCLUSIONS: This study identified possible nutrient and genetic factors related to folate metabolism associated with lung cancer risk, which could potentially lead to nutritional interventions tailored by smoking status to reduce lung cancer risk.

  4. Analysis of possible food/nutrient and drug interactions in hospitalized patients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Everton Moraes Lopes

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available Objective: To evaluate the prescription in relation to the possible interactions between drugs and foods/nutrients in the diets of patients in the Hospital Regional Justino Luz in the municipality of Picos, Piauí, Brazil. Methods: The sample consisted of 60 medical records of patients admitted at the hospital. The records were analyzed according to the presence or absence of interactions between drugs and foods/nutrients of the prescribed diets. Results: Of the 82 drugs prescribed in all periods, there were 16 drugs (19.5% with possible interaction with food, a total of 60 interactions between nutrient/food and medicine. Thus, 18 (30%, 10 (17% and 8 (13% possible interactions were identified with captopril (cardiovascular drug with acetylsalicylic acid (anti-inflammatory and spironolactone (diuretic, respectively representing the highest numbers of interactions among the classes of investigated drugs. It was also found that the total interactions between food/nutrients and drugs, 32 (53% accounted for interactions with cardiovascular drugs, 13 (22% with anti-inflammatory drugs, 11 (18% with diuretic agents e 4 (7% with drugs that act on the digestive tract. Conclusion: There was a high number of interactions between food/nutrients and medicines emphasizing the need for prior knowledge of these interactions as a way to avoid impairment in the treatment, longer hospital stays and/or damage to the nutritional status of the patients.

  5. Risk analysis and safety rationale

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bengtsson, G.

    1989-01-01

    Decision making with respect to safety is becoming more and more complex. The risk involved must be taken into account together with numerous other factors such as the benefits, the uncertainties and the public perception. Can the decision maker be aided by some kind of system, general rules of thumb, or broader perspective on similar decisions? This question has been addressed in a joint Nordic project relating to nuclear power. Modern techniques for risk assessment and management have been studied, and parallels drawn to such areas as offshore safety and management of toxic chemicals in the environment. The report summarises the finding of 5 major technical reports which have been published in the NORD-series. The topics includes developments, uncertainties and limitations in probabilistic safety assessments, negligible risks, risk-cost trade-offs, optimisation of nuclear safety and radiation protection, and the role of risks in the decision making process. (author) 84 refs

  6. A background to risk analysis. Vol. 2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Taylor, J.R.

    1979-01-01

    This 4-volumes report gives a background of ideas, principles and examples which might be of use in developing practical methods for risk analysis. Some of the risk analysis techniques described are somewhat experimental. The report is written in an introductory style, but where some point needs further justification or evaluation, this is given in the form of a chapter appendix. In this way, it is hoped that the report can serve two purposes, - as a basis for starting risk analysis work and as a basis for discussing effectiveness of risk analysis procedures. The report should be seen as a preliminary stage, prior to a program of industrial trials of risk analysis methods. Vol. 2 treats generic methods of qualitative failure analysis. (BP)

  7. Risk Analysis of Telecom Enterprise Financing

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    YU Hua; SHU Hua-ying

    2005-01-01

    The main research objects in this paper are the causes searching and risk estimating method for telecom enterprises' financial risks. The multi-mode financing for telecom enterprises makes it flexible to induce the capital and obtain the profit by corresponding projects. But there are also potential risks going with these financing modes. After making analysis of categories and causes of telecom enterprises' financing risk, a method by Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is put forward to estimating the financing risk. And the author makes her suggestion and opinion by example analysis, in order to provide some ideas and basis for telecom enterprise's financing decision-making.

  8. Improving nutrient management practices in agriculture: The role of risk-based beliefs in understanding farmers' attitudes toward taking additional action

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Robyn S.; Howard, Gregory; Burnett, Elizabeth A.

    2014-08-01

    A recent increase in the amount of dissolved reactive phosphorus (DRP) entering the western Lake Erie basin is likely due to increased spring storm events in combination with issues related to fertilizer application and timing. These factors in combination with warmer lake temperatures have amplified the spread of toxic algal blooms. We assessed the attitudes of farmers in northwest Ohio toward taking at least one additional action to reduce nutrient loss on their farm. Specifically, we (1) identified to what extent farm and farmer characteristics (e.g., age, gross farm sales) as well as risk-based beliefs (e.g., efficacy, risk perception) influenced attitudes, and (2) assessed how these characteristics and beliefs differ in their predictive ability based on unobservable latent classes of farmers. Risk perception, or a belief that negative impacts to profit and water quality from nutrient loss were likely, was the most consistent predictor of farmer attitudes. Response efficacy, or a belief that taking action on one's farm made a difference, was found to significantly influence attitudes, although this belief was particularly salient for the minority class of farmers who were older and more motivated by profit. Communication efforts should focus on the negative impacts of nutrient loss to both the farm (i.e., profit) and the natural environment (i.e., water quality) to raise individual perceived risk among the majority, while the minority need higher perceived efficacy or more specific information about the economic effectiveness of particular recommended practices.

  9. PRA and Risk Informed Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bernsen, Sidney A.; Simonen, Fredric A.; Balkey, Kenneth R.

    2006-01-01

    The Boiler and Pressure Vessel Code (BPVC) of the American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) has introduced a risk based approach into Section XI that covers Rules for Inservice Inspection of Nuclear Power Plant Components. The risk based approach requires application of the probabilistic risk assessments (PRA). Because no industry consensus standard existed for PRAs, ASME has developed a standard to evaluate the quality level of an available PRA needed to support a given risk based application. The paper describes the PRA standard, Section XI application of PRAs, and plans for broader applications of PRAs to other ASME nuclear codes and standards. The paper addresses several specific topics of interest to Section XI. Important consideration are special methods (surrogate components) used to overcome the lack of PRA treatments of passive components in PRAs. The approach allows calculations of conditional core damage probabilities both for component failures that cause initiating events and failures in standby systems that decrease the availability of these systems. The paper relates the explicit risk based methods of the new Section XI code cases to the implicit consideration of risk used in the development of Section XI. Other topics include the needed interactions of ISI engineers, plant operating staff, PRA specialists, and members of expert panels that review the risk based programs

  10. Advances in Risk Analysis with Big Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choi, Tsan-Ming; Lambert, James H

    2017-08-01

    With cloud computing, Internet-of-things, wireless sensors, social media, fast storage and retrieval, etc., organizations and enterprises have access to unprecedented amounts and varieties of data. Current risk analysis methodology and applications are experiencing related advances and breakthroughs. For example, highway operations data are readily available, and making use of them reduces risks of traffic crashes and travel delays. Massive data of financial and enterprise systems support decision making under risk by individuals, industries, regulators, etc. In this introductory article, we first discuss the meaning of big data for risk analysis. We then examine recent advances in risk analysis with big data in several topic areas. For each area, we identify and introduce the relevant articles that are featured in the special issue. We conclude with a discussion on future research opportunities. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

  11. 38 CFR 75.115 - Risk analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 38 Pensions, Bonuses, and Veterans' Relief 2 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Risk analysis. 75.115 Section 75.115 Pensions, Bonuses, and Veterans' Relief DEPARTMENT OF VETERANS AFFAIRS (CONTINUED) INFORMATION SECURITY MATTERS Data Breaches § 75.115 Risk analysis. If a data breach involving sensitive personal information that is processed or...

  12. Dietary One-Carbon Nutrient Intake and Risk of Lymphoid and Myeloid Neoplasms: Results of the Netherlands Cohort Study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Heinen, M.M.; Brandt, P.A. van den; Schouten, L.J.; Goldbohm, R.A.; Schouten, H.C.; Verhage, B.A.J.

    2014-01-01

    Background: Previous epidemiologic research suggests a protective role of one-carbon nutrients in carcinogenesis. Folate, however, may play a dual role in neoplasms development: protect early in carcinogenesis and promote carcinogenesis at a later stage. We prospectively examined associations

  13. A background to risk analysis. Vol. 4

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Taylor, J.R.

    1979-01-01

    This 4-volumes report gives a background of ideas, principles, and examples which might be of use in developing practical methods for risk analysis. Some of the risk analysis techniques described are somewhat experimental. The report is written in an introductory style, but where some point needs further justification or evaluation, this is given in the form of a chapter appendix. In this way, it is hoped that the report can serve two purposes, - as a basis for starting risk analysis work and as a basis for discussing effectiveness of risk analysis procedures. The report should be seen as a preliminary stage, prior to a program of industrial trials of risk analysis methods. Vol. 4 treats human error in plant operation. (BP)

  14. Reliability and validity of risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aven, Terje; Heide, Bjornar

    2009-01-01

    In this paper we investigate to what extent risk analysis meets the scientific quality requirements of reliability and validity. We distinguish between two types of approaches within risk analysis, relative frequency-based approaches and Bayesian approaches. The former category includes both traditional statistical inference methods and the so-called probability of frequency approach. Depending on the risk analysis approach, the aim of the analysis is different, the results are presented in different ways and consequently the meaning of the concepts reliability and validity are not the same.

  15. [Correlation analysis of nutrients and microorganisms in soils with polyphenols and total flavonoids of Houttuynia cordata].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Dan; Luo, Shi-qiong; Yang, Zhan-nan; Ma, Jing; Hong, Liang

    2015-04-01

    The relationship of nutrients and microorganisms in soils with polyphenols and total flavonoids of Houttuynia cordata were investigated by measuring nutrients, enzyme activity, pH, concentrations of microbe phospholipid fatty acids (PLFAs) in soils, and determining concentrations of polyphenols and total flavonoids of H. cordata. The research is aimed to understand characteristics of the planting soils and improve the quality of cultivated H. cordata. The soils at different sample sites varied greatly in nutrients, enzyme activity, pH, microbic PLFAs and polyphenols and all flavonoids. The content of total PLFAs in sample sites was following: bacteria > fungi > actinomyces > nematode. The content of bacteria PLFAs was 37.5%-65.0% at different sample sites. Activities of polyphenol oxidease, concentrations of available P and content of PLFAs of bacteria, actinomyces and total microorganisms in soils were significantly and positively related to the concentrations of polyphenols and total flavonoids of H. cordata, respectively (P soils was significantly and negatively related to concentrations of polyphenols and total flavonoids of H. cordata, respectively (P soil nutrient, which may be improved due to transformation of soil microorganisms and enzymes to N and P in the soils, was beneficial to adaptation of H. cordata adapted to different soil conditions, and significantly affects metabolic accumulation of polyphenols and flavonoids of H. cordata.

  16. Interactions between plant growth and soil nutrient cycling under elevated CO2: a meta-analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Graaff, de M.A.; Groenigen, van K.J.; Six, J.; Hungate, B.; Kessel, van C.

    2006-01-01

    free air carbon dioxide enrichment (FACE) and open top chamber (OTC) studies are valuable tools for evaluating the impact of elevated atmospheric CO2 on nutrient cycling in terrestrial ecosystems. Using meta-analytic techniques, we summarized the results of 117 studies on plant biomass production,

  17. Meta-analysis constrained by data: Recommendations to improve relevance of nutrient management research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Five research teams received funding through the North American 4R Research Fund to conduct meta-analyses of the air and water quality impacts of on-farm 4R nutrient management practices. In compiling or expanding databases for these analyses on environmental and crop production effects, researchers...

  18. A multiscale analysis of nutrient transport and biological tissue growth in vitro

    KAUST Repository

    O'Dea, R. D.

    2014-10-15

    © The authors 2014. In this paper, we consider the derivation of macroscopic equations appropriate to describe the growth of biological tissue, employing a multiple-scale homogenization method to accommodate explicitly the influence of the underlying microscale structure of the material, and its evolution, on the macroscale dynamics. Such methods have been widely used to study porous and poroelastic materials; however, a distinguishing feature of biological tissue is its ability to remodel continuously in response to local environmental cues. Here, we present the derivation of a model broadly applicable to tissue engineering applications, characterized by cell proliferation and extracellular matrix deposition in porous scaffolds used within tissue culture systems, which we use to study coupling between fluid flow, nutrient transport, and microscale tissue growth. Attention is restricted to surface accretion within a rigid porous medium saturated with a Newtonian fluid; coupling between the various dynamics is achieved by specifying the rate of microscale growth to be dependent upon the uptake of a generic diffusible nutrient. The resulting macroscale model comprises a Darcy-type equation governing fluid flow, with flow characteristics dictated by the assumed periodic microstructure and surface growth rate of the porous medium, coupled to an advection-reaction equation specifying the nutrient concentration. Illustrative numerical simulations are presented to indicate the influence of microscale growth on macroscale dynamics, and to highlight the importance of including experimentally relevant microstructural information to correctly determine flow dynamics and nutrient delivery in tissue engineering applications.

  19. Hyperspectral remote sensing analysis of short rotation woody crops grown with controlled nutrient and irrigation treatments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jungho Im; John R. Jensen; Mark Coleman; Eric. Nelson

    2009-01-01

    Hyperspectral remote sensing research was conducted to document the biophysical and biochemical characteristics of controlled forest plots subjected to various nutrient and irrigation treatments. The experimental plots were located on the Savannah River Site near Aiken, SC. AISA hyperspectral imagery were analysed using three approaches, including: (1) normalized...

  20. Crop production and soil nutrient management : an economic analysis of households in Western and Central Kenya

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Salasya, B.

    2005-01-01

    The study examines how a combination of socio-economic and household factors influences farm household decisions on soil nutrient management and on crop production in two regions of Kenya (Kiambu and Vihiga). It further examines how these decisions impact on household objectives and on productivity.

  1. USDA's National Food and Nutrient Analysis Program (NFNAP) produces high-quality data for USDA food composition databases: Two decades of collaboration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haytowitz, David B; Pehrsson, Pamela R

    2018-01-01

    For nearly 20years, the National Food and Nutrient Analysis Program (NFNAP) has expanded and improved the quantity and quality of data in US Department of Agriculture's (USDA) food composition databases (FCDB) through the collection and analysis of nationally representative food samples. NFNAP employs statistically valid sampling plans, the Key Foods approach to identify and prioritize foods and nutrients, comprehensive quality control protocols, and analytical oversight to generate new and updated analytical data for food components. NFNAP has allowed the Nutrient Data Laboratory to keep up with the dynamic US food supply and emerging scientific research. Recently generated results for nationally representative food samples show marked changes compared to previous database values for selected nutrients. Monitoring changes in the composition of foods is critical in keeping FCDB up-to-date, so that they remain a vital tool in assessing the nutrient intake of national populations, as well as for providing dietary advice. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  2. Probabilistic risk analysis for nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hauptmanns, U.

    1988-01-01

    Risk analysis is applied if the calculation of risk from observed failures is not possible, because events contributing substantially to risk are too seldom, as in the case of nuclear reactors. The process of analysis provides a number of benefits. Some of them are listed. After this by no means complete enumeration of possible benefits to be derived from a risk analysis. An outline of risk studiesd for PWR's with some comments on the models used are given. The presentation is indebted to the detailed treatment of the subject given in the PRA Procedures Guide. Thereafter some results of the German Risk Study, Phase B, which is under way are communicated. The paper concludes with some remarks on probabilistic considerations in licensing procedures. (orig./DG)

  3. Bias in risk-benefit analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mazur, A.

    1985-01-01

    Risk-benefit analysis has become popular in the past decade as a means of improving decision making, especially in the area of technology policy. Here risk-benefit analysis is compared to other (equally defensible) approaches to decision making, showing how it favors some political interests more than others, and suggesting why it has recently come to the fore as a tool of political analysis. A considerable portion of the discussion concerns nuclear power. 6 references

  4. Collision Risk Analysis for HSC

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Urban, Jesper; Pedersen, Preben Terndrup; Simonsen, Bo Cerup

    1999-01-01

    High Speed Craft (HSC) have a risk profile, which is distinctly different from conventional ferries. Due to different hull building material, structural layout, compartmentation and operation, both frequency and consequences of collision and grounding accidents must be expected to be different fr...

  5. Generalized indices for radiation risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bykov, A.A.; Demin, V.F.

    1989-01-01

    A new approach to ensuring nuclear safety has begun forming since the early eighties. The approach based on the probabilistic safety analysis, the principles of acceptable risk, the optimization of safety measures, etc. has forced a complex of adequate quantitative methods of assessment, safety analysis and risk management to be developed. The method of radiation risk assessment and analysis hold a prominent place in the complex. National and international research and regulatory organizations ICRP, IAEA, WHO, UNSCEAR, OECD/NEA have given much attention to the development of the conceptual and methodological basis of those methods. Some resolutions of the National Commission of Radiological Protection (NCRP) and the Problem Commission on Radiation Hygiene of the USSR Ministry of Health should be also noted. Both CBA (cost benefit analysis) and other methods of radiation risk analysis and safety management use a system of natural and socio-economic indices characterizing the radiation risk or damage. There exist a number of problems associated with the introduction, justification and use of these indices. For example, the price, a, of radiation damage, or collective dose unit, is a noteworthy index. The difficulties in its qualitative and quantitative determination are still an obstacle for a wide application of CBA to the radiation risk analysis and management. During recent 10-15 years these problems have been a subject of consideration for many authors. The present paper also considers the issues of the qualitative and quantitative justification of the indices of radiation risk analysis

  6. Risk-benefit evaluation of fish from Chinese markets: Nutrients and contaminants in 24 fish species from five big cities and related assessment for human health

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Du, Zhen-Yu, E-mail: zdu@nifes.no [National Institute of Nutrition and Seafood Research (NIFES), N-5817 Bergen (Norway); Zhang, Jian [National Institute of Nutrition and Seafood Research (NIFES), N-5817 Bergen (Norway); Institute of Nutrition and Food Safety, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, 100050 (China); Department of Biomedicine, University of Bergen (Norway); Wang, Chunrong; Li, Lixiang; Man, Qingqing [Institute of Nutrition and Food Safety, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, 100050 (China); Lundebye, Anne-Katrine; Froyland, Livar [National Institute of Nutrition and Seafood Research (NIFES), N-5817 Bergen (Norway)

    2012-02-01

    The risks and benefits of fish from markets in Chinese cities have not previously been fully evaluated. In the present study, 24 common fish species with more than 400 individual samples were collected from markets from five big Chinese cities in 2007. The main nutrients and contaminants were measured and the risk-benefit was evaluated based on recommended nutrient intakes and risk level criteria set by relevant authorities. The comprehensive effects of nutrients and contaminants in marine oily fish were also evaluated using the data of two related human dietary intervention trials performed in dyslipidemic Chinese men and women in 2008 and 2010, respectively. The results showed that concentrations of contaminants analyzed including DDT, PCB{sub 7}, arsenic and cadmium were much lower than their corresponding maximum limits with the exception of the mercury concentration in common carp. Concentrations of POPs and n-3 LCPUFA, mainly EPA and DHA, were positively associated with the lipid content of the fish. With a daily intake of 80-100 g marine oily fish, the persistent organic pollutants in fish would not counteract the beneficial effects of n-3 LCPUFA in reducing cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk markers. Marine oily fish provided more effective protection against CVD than lean fish, particularly for the dyslipidemic populations. The risk-benefit assessment based on the present daily aquatic product intake in Chinese urban residents (44.9 and 62.3 g for the average values for all cities and big cities, respectively) indicated that fish, particularly marine oily fish, can be regularly consumed to achieve optimal nutritional benefits from n-3 LCPUFA, without causing significant contaminant-related health risks. However, the potential health threat from contaminants in fish should still be emphasized for the populations consuming large quantities of fish, particularly wild fish. - Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer We collected 24 fish species with more than

  7. Safety analysis, risk assessment, and risk acceptance criteria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jamali, K.

    1997-01-01

    This paper discusses a number of topics that relate safety analysis as documented in the Department of Energy (DOE) safety analysis reports (SARs), probabilistic risk assessments (PRA) as characterized primarily in the context of the techniques that have assumed some level of formality in commercial nuclear power plant applications, and risk acceptance criteria as an outgrowth of PRA applications. DOE SARs of interest are those that are prepared for DOE facilities under DOE Order 5480.23 and the implementing guidance in DOE STD-3009-94. It must be noted that the primary area of application for DOE STD-3009 is existing DOE facilities and that certain modifications of the STD-3009 approach are necessary in SARs for new facilities. Moreover, it is the hazard analysis (HA) and accident analysis (AA) portions of these SARs that are relevant to the present discussions. Although PRAs can be qualitative in nature, PRA as used in this paper refers more generally to all quantitative risk assessments and their underlying methods. HA as used in this paper refers more generally to all qualitative risk assessments and their underlying methods that have been in use in hazardous facilities other than nuclear power plants. This discussion includes both quantitative and qualitative risk assessment methods. PRA has been used, improved, developed, and refined since the Reactor Safety Study (WASH-1400) was published in 1975 by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). Much debate has ensued since WASH-1400 on exactly what the role of PRA should be in plant design, reactor licensing, 'ensuring' plant and process safety, and a large number of other decisions that must be made for potentially hazardous activities. Of particular interest in this area is whether the risks quantified using PRA should be compared with numerical risk acceptance criteria (RACs) to determine whether a facility is 'safe.' Use of RACs requires quantitative estimates of consequence frequency and magnitude

  8. Nutrient Removal from Wastewater using Microalgae: A Kinetic Evaluation and Lipid Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-09-15

    The objective of this study was to examine the performance of mixed microalgal bioreactors in treating three differenttypes of wastewaters - kitchen wastewater (KWW), palm oil mill effluent (POME), and pharmaceutical wastewater (PWW) in semi-continuous mode and to analyze the lipid content in the harvested algal biomass. The reactors were monitored for total nitrogen and phosphate removal at eight solid retention times (SRTs) - 2, 4, 6, 8, 10, 12, 14, and 16 days. The nutrient uptake kinetic parameters were quantified using linearized Michaelis-Menten and Monod models at steady-state conditions. The nutrient removal efficiency and lipid production were found to be higher in KWW when compared with the other wastewaters. Saturated fatty acids (C16:0, C18:0, and C18:1) accounted for more than 60% of the algal fatty acids for all the wastewaters. The lipid is, therefore, considered suitable for synthesizing biodiesel.

  9. Reconstruction and analysis of nutrient-induced phosphorylation networks in Arabidopsis thaliana.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guangyou eDuan

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Elucidating the dynamics of molecular processes in living organisms in response to external perturbations is a central goal in modern systems biology. We investigated the dynamics of protein phosphorylation events in Arabidopsis thaliana exposed to changing nutrient conditions. Phosphopeptide expression levels were detected at five consecutive time points over a time interval of 30 minutes after nutrient resupply following prior starvation. The three tested inorganic, ionic nutrients NH4+, NO3-, PO43- elicited similar phosphosignaling responses that were distinguishable from those invoked by the sugars mannitol, sucrose. When embedded in the protein-protein interaction network of Arabidopsis thaliana, phosphoproteins were found to exhibit a higher degree compared to average proteins. Based on the time-series data, we reconstructed a network of regulatory interactions mediated by phosphorylation. The performance of different network inference methods was evaluated by the observed likelihood of physical interactions within and across different subcellular compartments and based on gene ontology semantic similarity. The dynamic phosphorylation network was then reconstructed using a Pearson correlation method with added directionality based on partial variance differences. The topology of the inferred integrated network corresponds to an information dissemination architecture, in which the phosphorylation signal is passed on to an increasing number of phosphoproteins stratified into an initiation, processing, and effector layer. Specific phosphorylation peptide motifs associated with the distinct layers were identified indicating the action of layer-specific kinases. Despite the limited temporal resolution, combined with information on subcellular location, the available time-series data proved useful for reconstructing the dynamics of the molecular signaling cascade in response to nutrient stress conditions in the plant Arabidopsis thaliana.

  10. System-level analysis of genes and functions affecting survival during nutrient starvation in Saccharomyces cerevisiae.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gresham, David; Boer, Viktor M; Caudy, Amy; Ziv, Naomi; Brandt, Nathan J; Storey, John D; Botstein, David

    2011-01-01

    An essential property of all cells is the ability to exit from active cell division and persist in a quiescent state. For single-celled microbes this primarily occurs in response to nutrient deprivation. We studied the genetic requirements for survival of Saccharomyces cerevisiae when starved for either of two nutrients: phosphate or leucine. We measured the survival of nearly all nonessential haploid null yeast mutants in mixed populations using a quantitative sequencing method that estimates the abundance of each mutant on the basis of frequency of unique molecular barcodes. Starvation for phosphate results in a population half-life of 337 hr whereas starvation for leucine results in a half-life of 27.7 hr. To measure survival of individual mutants in each population we developed a statistical framework that accounts for the multiple sources of experimental variation. From the identities of the genes in which mutations strongly affect survival, we identify genetic evidence for several cellular processes affecting survival during nutrient starvation, including autophagy, chromatin remodeling, mRNA processing, and cytoskeleton function. In addition, we found evidence that mitochondrial and peroxisome function is required for survival. Our experimental and analytical methods represent an efficient and quantitative approach to characterizing genetic functions and networks with unprecedented resolution and identified genotype-by-environment interactions that have important implications for interpretation of studies of aging and quiescence in yeast.

  11. GIS risk analysis of hazardous materials transport

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anders, C.; Olsten, J.

    1991-01-01

    The Geographic Information System (GIS) was used to assess the risks and vulnerability of transporting hazardous materials and wastes (such as gasoline, explosives, poisons, etc) on the Arizona highway system. This paper discusses the methodology that was utilized, and the application of GIS systems to risk analysis problems

  12. Dealing with phenomenological uncertainty in risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Theofanous, T.G.

    1994-01-01

    The Risk-Oriented Accident Analysis Methodology (ROAAM) is summarized and developed further towards a formal definition. The key ideas behind the methodology and these more formal aspects are also presented and discussed

  13. Risk and safety analysis of nuclear systems

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Lee, John C; McCormick, Norman J

    2011-01-01

    .... The first half of the book covers the principles of risk analysis, the techniques used to develop and update a reliability data base, the reliability of multi-component systems, Markov methods used...

  14. Risk analysis for nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koelzer, W.

    1983-01-01

    The German risk analysis program for nuclear power plants aiming at the man and the environment is presented. An accident consequence model to calculate the radiological impact and the potential health effects is described. (E.G.) [pt

  15. Probabilistic risk analysis in chemical engineering

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schmalz, F.

    1991-01-01

    In risk analysis in the chemical industry, recognising potential risks is considered more important than assessing their quantitative extent. Even in assessing risks, emphasis is not on the probability involved but on the possible extent. Qualitative assessment has proved valuable here. Probabilistic methods are used in individual cases where the wide implications make it essential to be able to assess the reliability of safety precautions. In this case, assessment therefore centres on the reliability of technical systems and not on the extent of a chemical risk. 7 figs

  16. Food and nutrient availability in New Zealand: an analysis of supermarket sales data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamilton, Sally; Mhurchu, Cliona Ni; Priest, Patricia

    2007-12-01

    To examine food and nutrient availability in New Zealand using supermarket sales data in conjunction with a brand-specific supermarket food composition database (SFD). The SFD was developed by selecting the top-selling supermarket food products and linking them to food composition data from a variety of sources, before merging with individualised sales data. Supermarket food and nutrient data were then compared with data from national nutrition and household budget/economic surveys. A supermarket in Wellington, New Zealand. Eight hundred and eighty-two customers (73% female; mean age 38 years) who shopped regularly at the participating supermarket store and for whom electronic sales data were available for the period February 2004-January 2005. Top-selling supermarket food products included full-fat milk, white bread, sugary soft drinks and butter. Key food sources of macronutrients were similar between the supermarket sales database and national nutrition surveys. For example, bread was the major source of energy and contributed 12-13% of energy in all three data sources. Proportional expenditure on fruit, vegetables, meat, poultry, fish, farm products and oils, and cereal products recorded in the Household Economic Survey and supermarket sales data were within 2% of each other. Electronic supermarket sales data can be used to evaluate a number of important aspects of food and nutrient availability. Many of our findings were broadly comparable with national nutrition and food expenditure survey data, and supermarket sales have the advantage of being an objective, convenient, up-to-date and cost-effective measure of household food purchases.

  17. Current Methods for the Analysis of Selected Novel Nutrients in Infant Formulas and Adult Nutritionals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gill, Brendon D; Indyk, Harvey E; Woollard, David C

    2016-01-01

    Infant formula is designed to provide the human infant with a sole source of nutrition and it is intended to imitate breast milk. In recent years, advances in the science of infant nutrition have led to an increasing number of novel ingredients that are supplemented into infant formula. As the list of these nutritionally important nutrients is lengthy, this review summarizes contemporary analytical methods that have been applied to a representative selection (lutein, carnitine, choline, nucleotides, inositol, taurine, sialic acid, gangliosides, triacylglycerides, oligosaccharides, α-lactalbumin, and lactoferrin).

  18. Reliability and risk analysis methods research plan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1984-10-01

    This document presents a plan for reliability and risk analysis methods research to be performed mainly by the Reactor Risk Branch (RRB), Division of Risk Analysis and Operations (DRAO), Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research. It includes those activities of other DRAO branches which are very closely related to those of the RRB. Related or interfacing programs of other divisions, offices and organizations are merely indicated. The primary use of this document is envisioned as an NRC working document, covering about a 3-year period, to foster better coordination in reliability and risk analysis methods development between the offices of Nuclear Regulatory Research and Nuclear Reactor Regulation. It will also serve as an information source for contractors and others to more clearly understand the objectives, needs, programmatic activities and interfaces together with the overall logical structure of the program

  19. Gender Analysis of Risk in Innovation System

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ayinde, Ope; Muchie, Mammo; Abaniyan, E. O.

    2011-01-01

    the new maize variety. The analytical tools used include descriptive statistics, regression model; risk utility functions and risk parameter analysis. The result showed that invasion by animals, disease and pest, lack of access to credit wind and price fluctuation were the major risk facing the maize......This study analyzed risk by gender in innovation in Kwara state, Nigeria, using downy mildew resistant maize production as case study. The study employed primary and secondary data. The primary data were collected from well-structured questionnaires administered to both male and female producing...... producers in the area in the usage of the new innovation. The study also revealed that male producers were willing to take risk in the new maize variety production than the female, while the females were more indifferent to the risk involved in the new maize production variety than males. None...

  20. Intentional risk management through complex networks analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Chapela, Victor; Moral, Santiago; Romance, Miguel

    2015-01-01

    This book combines game theory and complex networks to examine intentional technological risk through modeling. As information security risks are in constant evolution,  the methodologies and tools to manage them must evolve to an ever-changing environment. A formal global methodology is explained  in this book, which is able to analyze risks in cyber security based on complex network models and ideas extracted from the Nash equilibrium. A risk management methodology for IT critical infrastructures is introduced which provides guidance and analysis on decision making models and real situations. This model manages the risk of succumbing to a digital attack and assesses an attack from the following three variables: income obtained, expense needed to carry out an attack, and the potential consequences for an attack. Graduate students and researchers interested in cyber security, complex network applications and intentional risk will find this book useful as it is filled with a number of models, methodologies a...

  1. Identification, Expression Analysis, and Target Prediction of Flax Genotroph MicroRNAs Under Normal and Nutrient Stress Conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Melnikova, Nataliya V.; Dmitriev, Alexey A.; Belenikin, Maxim S.; Koroban, Nadezhda V.; Speranskaya, Anna S.; Krinitsina, Anastasia A.; Krasnov, George S.; Lakunina, Valentina A.; Snezhkina, Anastasiya V.; Sadritdinova, Asiya F.; Kishlyan, Natalya V.; Rozhmina, Tatiana A.; Klimina, Kseniya M.; Amosova, Alexandra V.; Zelenin, Alexander V.; Muravenko, Olga V.; Bolsheva, Nadezhda L.; Kudryavtseva, Anna V.

    2016-01-01

    Cultivated flax (Linum usitatissimum L.) is an important plant valuable for industry. Some flax lines can undergo heritable phenotypic and genotypic changes (LIS-1 insertion being the most common) in response to nutrient stress and are called plastic lines. Offspring of plastic lines, which stably inherit the changes, are called genotrophs. MicroRNAs (miRNAs) are involved in a crucial regulatory mechanism of gene expression. They have previously been assumed to take part in nutrient stress response and can, therefore, participate in genotroph formation. In the present study, we performed high-throughput sequencing of small RNAs (sRNAs) extracted from flax plants grown under normal, phosphate deficient and nutrient excess conditions to identify miRNAs and evaluate their expression. Our analysis revealed expression of 96 conserved miRNAs from 21 families in flax. Moreover, 475 novel potential miRNAs were identified for the first time, and their targets were predicted. However, none of the identified miRNAs were transcribed from LIS-1. Expression of seven miRNAs (miR168, miR169, miR395, miR398, miR399, miR408, and lus-miR-N1) with up- or down-regulation under nutrient stress (on the basis of high-throughput sequencing data) was evaluated on extended sampling using qPCR. Reference gene search identified ETIF3H and ETIF3E genes as most suitable for this purpose. Down-regulation of novel potential lus-miR-N1 and up-regulation of conserved miR399 were revealed under the phosphate deficient conditions. In addition, the negative correlation of expression of lus-miR-N1 and its predicted target, ubiquitin-activating enzyme E1 gene, as well as, miR399 and its predicted target, ubiquitin-conjugating enzyme E2 gene, was observed. Thus, in our study, miRNAs expressed in flax plastic lines and genotrophs were identified and their expression and expression of their targets was evaluated using high-throughput sequencing and qPCR for the first time. These data provide new insights

  2. Does a mandibular overdenture improve nutrient intake and markers of nutritional status better than conventional complete denture? A systematic review and meta-analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamazaki, Toru; Martiniuk, Alexandra LC; Irie, Koichiro; Sokejima, Shigeru; Lee, Crystal Man Ying

    2016-01-01

    Objectives The need for denture treatment in public health will increase as the population ages. However, the impact of dentures on nutrition, particularly overdenture treatment, remains unclear although the physical and psychological effects are known. We investigated whether treatment with a mandibular implant supported overdenture improves nutrient intake and markers of nutritional status better than a conventional complete denture in edentulous patients. Design Systematic review and meta-analysis. Methods Medline, EMBASE and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials were searched for eligible studies published up to April 2016. We included studies which compared the treatment effect of an overdenture to conventional denture on nutrition, in which primary outcomes included changes in intake of macronutrients and/or micronutrients and/or indicators of nutritional status. Two reviewers independently evaluated eligible studies and assessed the risk of bias. We used a fixed effects model to estimate the weighted mean difference (WMD) and 95% CI for change in body mass index (BMI), albumin and serum vitamin B12 between overdenture and conventional denture 6 months after treatment. Results Of 108 eligible studies, 8 studies involving 901 participants were included in the narrative appraisal. Four studies reported changes in markers of nutritional status and nutrient intake after treatment with a prosthetic, regardless of type. In a meta-analysis of 322 participants aged 65 years or older from three studies, pooled analysis suggested no significant difference in change in BMI between an overdenture and conventional denture 6 months after treatment (WMD=−0.18 kg/m2 (95% CI −0.52 to 0.16)), and no significant difference in change in albumin or vitamin B12 between the two treatments. Conclusions The modifying effect of overdenture treatment on nutritional status might be limited. Further studies are needed to evaluate the effectiveness and efficacy of

  3. WIPP fire hazards and risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1991-05-01

    The purpose of this analysis was to conduct a fire hazards risk analysis of the Transuranic (TRU) contact-handled waste receipt, emplacement, and disposal activities at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP). The technical bases and safety envelope for these operations are defined in the approved WIPP Final Safety Analysis Report (FSAR). Although the safety documentation for the initial phase of the Test Program, the dry bin scale tests, has not yet been approved by the Department of Energy (DOE), reviews of the draft to date, including those by the Advisory Committee on Nuclear Facility Safety (ACNFS), have concluded that the dry bin scale tests present no significant risks in excess of those estimated in the approved WIPP FSAR. It is the opinion of the authors and reviewers of this analysis, based on sound engineering judgment and knowledge of the WIPP operations, that a Fire Hazards and Risk Analysis specific to the dry bin scale test program is not warranted prior to first waste receipt. This conclusion is further supported by the risk analysis presented in this document which demonstrates the level of risk to WIPP operations posed by fire to be extremely low. 15 refs., 41 figs., 48 tabs

  4. Nutrients and Energy Balance Analysis for a Conceptual Model of a Three Loops off Grid, Aquaponics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Uri Yogev

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Food security, specifically in water scarce regions, is an increasing local and global challenge. Finding new ways to increase agricultural production in a sustainable manner is required. The current study suggests a conceptual model to integrate established recirculating aquaculture practices into a near-zero discharge aquaponic system that efficiently utilizes water, excreted nutrients and organic matter for energy. The suggested model allows to significantly extend the planted area and recover energy in the form of biogas to operate the system off-grid. A mass balance model of nitrogen, carbon and energy was established and solved, based on data from the literature. Results demonstrate that a fish standing stock of about 700 kg would produce 3.4 tons of fish annually and enough nutrients to grow about 35 tons of tomatoes per year (chosen as a model plant and recover sufficient energy (70 kWh/day to run the system on biogas and use less water. If proven successful, this approach may play a major role in sustainably enhancing food security in rural and water scarce regions.

  5. Analysis of Dissolved Organic Nutrients in the Interstitial Water of Natural Biofilms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsuchiya, Yuki; Eda, Shima; Kiriyama, Chiho; Asada, Tomoya; Morisaki, Hisao

    2016-07-01

    In biofilms, the matrix of extracellular polymeric substances (EPSs) retains water in the interstitial region of the EPS. This interstitial water is the ambient environment for microorganisms in the biofilms. The nutrient condition in the interstitial water may affect microbial activity in the biofilms. In the present study, we measured the concentrations of dissolved organic nutrients, i.e., saccharides and proteins, contained in the interstitial water of biofilms formed on the stones. We also analyzed the molecular weight distribution, chemical species, and availability to bacteria of some saccharides in the interstitial water. Colorimetric assays showed that the concentrations of saccharides and proteins in the biofilm interstitial water were significantly higher (ca. 750 times) than those in the surrounding lake waters (p Chromatographic analyses demonstrated that the saccharides in the interstitial waters were mainly of low molecular-weight saccharides such as glucose and maltose, while proteins in the interstitial water were high molecular-weight proteins (over 7000 Da). Bacterial growth and production of EPS occurred simultaneously with the decrease in the low molecular-weight saccharide concentrations when a small portion of biofilm suspension was inoculated to the collected interstitial water, suggesting that the dissolved saccharides in the interstitial water support bacterial growth and formation of biofilms.

  6. Standardised risk analysis as a communication tool

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pluess, Ch.; Montanarini, M.; Bernauer, M.

    1998-01-01

    Full text of publication follows: several European countries require a risk analysis for the production, storage or transport a dangerous goods. This requirement imposes considerable administrative effort for some sectors of the industry. In order to minimize the effort of such studies, a generic risk analysis for an industrial sector proved to help. Standardised procedures can consequently be derived for efficient performance of the risk investigations. This procedure was successfully established in Switzerland for natural gas transmission lines and fossil fuel storage plants. The development process of the generic risk analysis involved an intense discussion between industry and authorities about methodology of assessment and the criteria of acceptance. This process finally led to scientific consistent modelling tools for risk analysis and to an improved communication from the industry to the authorities and the public. As a recent example, the Holland-Italy natural gas transmission pipeline is demonstrated, where this method was successfully employed. Although this pipeline traverses densely populated areas in Switzerland, using this established communication method, the risk problems could be solved without delaying the planning process. (authors)

  7. Risk analysis of industrial plants operation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hubert, Philippe

    1989-12-01

    This study examines the possibilities of systematic technology risk analysis in view of territorial management (city, urban community, region), including chronic and accidental risks. The objective was to relate this evaluation with those done for permanent water and air pollution. Risk management for pollution are done for a long time. A number of studies were done in urban communities and regions both for air and water pollution. The second objective is related to management of industrial risks: nuclear, petrochemical, transport of hazardous material, pipelines, etc. At the beginning, three possibilities of effects are taken into account: human health, economic aspect and water, and possibilities of evaluation are identified. Elements of risk identification are presented for quantification of results [fr

  8. Risk analysis of alternative energy sources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kazmer, D.R.

    1982-01-01

    The author explores two points raised by Miller Spangler in a January 1981 issue: public perception of risks involving nuclear power plants relative to those of conventional plants and criteria for evaluating the way risk analyses are made. On the first point, he concludes that translating public attitudes into the experts' language of probability and risk could provide better information and understanding of both the attitudes and the risks. Viewing risk analysis methodologies as filters which help to test historical change, he suggests that the lack of information favors a lay jury approach for energy decisions. Spangler responds that Congress is an example of lay decision making, but that a lay jury, given public disinterest and polarization, would probably not improve social justice on the nuclear issue. 5 references, 4 figures

  9. LANDSAFE: LANDING SITE RISK ANALYSIS SOFTWARE FRAMEWORK

    OpenAIRE

    Schmidt, Ralph; Bostelmann, Jonas; Cornet, Yves; Heipke, Christian; Philippe, Christian; Poncelet, Nadia; de Rosa, Diego; Vandeloise, Yannick

    2012-01-01

    The European Space Agency (ESA) is planning a Lunar Lander mission in the 2018 timeframe that will demonstrate precise soft landing at the polar regions of the Moon. To ensure a safe and successful landing a careful risk analysis has to be carried out. This is comprised of identifying favorable target areas and evaluating the surface conditions in these areas. Features like craters, boulders, steep slopes, rough surfaces and shadow areas have to be identified in order to assess the risk assoc...

  10. Impact Analysis for Risks in Informatics Systems

    OpenAIRE

    Baicu, Floarea; Baches, Maria Alexandra

    2013-01-01

    In this paper are presented methods of impact analysis on informatics system security accidents, qualitative and quantitative methods, starting with risk and informational system security definitions. It is presented the relationship between the risks of exploiting vulnerabilities of security system, security level of these informatics systems, probability of exploiting the weak points subject to financial losses of a company, respectively impact of a security accident on the company. Herewit...

  11. Agroforestry suitability analysis based upon nutrient availability mapping: a GIS based suitability mapping

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Firoz Ahmad

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Agroforestry has drawn the attention of researchers due to its capacity to reduce the poverty and land degradation, improve food security and mitigate the climate change. However, the progress in promoting agroforestry is held back due to the lack of reliable data sets and appropriate tools to accurately map and to have an adequate decision making system for agroforestry modules. Agroforestry suitability being one special form of land suitability is very pertinent to study in the current times when there is tremendous pressure on the land as it is a limited commodity. The study aims for applying the geo-spatial tools towards visualizing various soil and environmental data to reveal the trends and interrelationships and to achieve a nutrient availability and agroforestry suitability map. Using weight matrix and ranks, individual maps were developed in ArcGIS 10.1 platform to generate nutrient availability map, which was later used to develop agroforestry suitability map. Watersheds were delineated using DEM in some part of the study area and were evaluated for prioritizing it and agroforestry suitability of the watersheds were also done as per the schematic flowchart. Agroforestry suitability regions were delineated based upon the weight and ranks by integrated mapping. The total open area was identified 42.4% out of which 21.6% area was found to have high suitability towards agroforestry. Within the watersheds, 22 village points were generated for creating buffers, which were further evaluated showing its proximity to high suitable agroforestry sites thus generating tremendous opportunity to the villagers to carry out agroforestry projects locally. This research shows the capability of remote sensing in studying agroforestry practices and in estimating the prominent factors for its optimal productivity. The ongoing agroforestry projects can be potentially diverted in the areas of high suitability as an extension. The use of ancillary data in GIS

  12. Modelling nutrient fluxes from source to river load : a macroscopic analysis applied to the Rhine and Elbe basins

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wit, de M.

    2000-01-01

    In many European rivers, including the major streams of the Rhine and Elbe basins, the nutrient load (N and P) still exceeds target levels. In this paper, a model is presented that describes the river nutrient load as a function of nutrient sources, runoff and lithology in the upstream basin. The

  13. Risk Assessment and Integration Team (RAIT) Portfolio Risk Analysis Strategy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edwards, Michelle

    2010-01-01

    Impact at management level: Qualitative assessment of risk criticality in conjunction with risk consequence, likelihood, and severity enable development of an "investment policy" towards managing a portfolio of risks. Impact at research level: Quantitative risk assessments enable researchers to develop risk mitigation strategies with meaningful risk reduction results. Quantitative assessment approach provides useful risk mitigation information.

  14. Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Surface Flow Constructed Wetlands (SFCW) for Nutrient Reduction in Drainage Discharge from Agricultural Fields in Denmark.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gachango, F G; Pedersen, S M; Kjaergaard, C

    2015-12-01

    Constructed wetlands have been proposed as cost-effective and more targeted technologies in the reduction of nitrogen and phosphorous water pollution in drainage losses from agricultural fields in Denmark. Using two pig farms and one dairy farm situated in a pumped lowland catchment as case studies, this paper explores the feasibility of implementing surface flow constructed wetlands (SFCW) based on their cost effectiveness. Sensitivity analysis is conducted by varying the cost elements of the wetlands in order to establish the most cost-effective scenario and a comparison with the existing nutrients reduction measures carried out. The analyses show that the cost effectiveness of the SFCW is higher in the drainage catchments with higher nutrient loads. The range of the cost effectiveness ratio on nitrogen reduction differs distinctively with that of catch crop measure. The study concludes that SFCW could be a better optimal nutrients reduction measure in drainage catchments characterized with higher nutrient loads.

  15. A genome-wide linkage scan for dietary energy and nutrient intakes: the Health, Risk Factors, Exercise Training, and Genetics (HERITAGE) Family Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collaku, Agron; Rankinen, Tuomo; Rice, Treva; Leon, Arthur S; Rao, D C; Skinner, James S; Wilmore, Jack H; Bouchard, Claude

    2004-05-01

    A poor diet is a risk factor for chronic diseases such as obesity, cardiovascular disease, hypertension, and some cancers. Twin and family studies suggest that genetic factors potentially influence energy and nutrient intakes. We sought to identify genomic regions harboring genes affecting total energy, carbohydrate, protein, and fat intakes. We performed a genomic scan in 347 white sibling pairs and 99 black sibling pairs. Dietary energy and nutrient intakes were assessed by using Willett's food-frequency questionnaire. Single-point and multipoint Haseman-Elston regression techniques were used to test for linkage. These subjects were part of the Health, Risk Factors, Exercise Training, and Genetics (HERITAGE) Family Study, a multicenter project undertaken by 5 laboratories. In the whites, the strongest evidence of linkage appeared for dietary energy and nutrient intakes on chromosomes 1p21.2 (P = 0.0002) and 20q13.13 (P = 0.00007), and that for fat intake appeared on chromosome 12q14.1 (P = 0.0013). The linkage evidence on chromosomes 1 and 20 related to total energy intake rather than to the intake of specific macronutrients. In the blacks, promising linkages for macronutrient intakes occurred on chromosomes 12q23-q24.21, 1q32.1, and 7q11.1. Several potential candidate genes are encoded in and around the linkage regions on chromosomes 1p21.2, 12q14.1, and 20q13.13. These are the first reported human quantitative trait loci for dietary energy and macronutrient intakes. Further study may refine these quantitative trait loci to identify potential candidate genes for energy and specific macronutrient intakes that would be amenable to more detailed molecular studies.

  16. 2020s scenario analysis of nutrient load in the Mekong River Basin using a distributed hydrological model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoshimura, Chihiro; Zhou, Maichun; Kiem, Anthony S; Fukami, Kazuhiko; Prasantha, Hapuarachchi H A; Ishidaira, Hiroshi; Takeuchi, Kuniyoshi

    2009-10-01

    A distributed hydrological model, YHyM, was integrated with the export coefficient concept and applied to simulate the nutrient load in the Mekong River Basin. In the validation period (1992-1999), Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency was 76.4% for discharge, 65.9% for total nitrogen, and 45.3% for total phosphorus at Khong Chiam. Using the model, scenario analysis was then performed for the 2020s taking into account major anthropogenic factors: climate change, population, land cover, fertilizer use, and industrial waste water. The results show that the load at Kompong Cham in 2020s is 6.3 x 10(4)tN a(-1) (+13.0% compared to 1990s) and 4.3 x 10(3)tP a(-1) (+24.7%). Overall, the noticeable nutrient sources are cropland in the middle region and urban load in the lower region. The installation of waste water treatment plants in urban areas possibly cut 60.6%N and 19.9%P of the estimated increase in the case without any treatment.

  17. New algorithm for risk analysis in radiotherapy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Torres, Antonio; Montes de Oca, Joe

    2015-01-01

    Risk analyses applied to radiotherapy treatments have become an undeniable necessity, considering the dangers generated by the combination of using powerful radiation fields on patients and the occurrence of human errors and equipment failures during these treatments. The technique par excellence to execute these analyses has been the risk matrix. This paper presents the development of a new algorithm to execute the task with wide graphic and analytic potentialities, thus transforming it into a very useful option for risk monitoring and the optimization of quality assurance. The system SECURE- MR, which is the basic software of this algorithm, has been successfully used in risk analysis regarding different kinds of radiotherapies. Compared to previous methods, It offers new possibilities of analysis considering risk controlling factors as the robustness of reducers of initiators frequency and its consequences. Their analytic capacities and graphs allow novel developments to classify risk contributing factors, to represent information processes as well as accidental sequences. The paper shows the application of the proposed system to a generic process of radiotherapy treatment using a lineal accelerator. (author)

  18. The watchdog role of risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reijen, G. van; Vinck, W.

    1983-01-01

    The reason why the risks of large-scale technology attract more attention lies in the fact that accidents would have more disastrous results and in the fact that it is probably more attractive to study the risks of some large projects than to do the same for a greater number of smaller projects. Within this presentation there will be some opening remarks on the Role of the Commission of the European Community with regard to accident prevention. The development of the concept of quantitative risks is dealt with. This development leads to a combinded of deterministic and probabilistic methods. The presentation concludes with some critical remarks on quantitative risk analysis and its use. (orig./HP) [de

  19. Implementing the Bayesian paradigm in risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aven, T.; Kvaloey, J.T.

    2002-01-01

    The Bayesian paradigm comprises a unified and consistent framework for analyzing and expressing risk. Yet, we see rather few examples of applications where the full Bayesian setting has been adopted with specifications of priors of unknown parameters. In this paper, we discuss some of the practical challenges of implementing Bayesian thinking and methods in risk analysis, emphasizing the introduction of probability models and parameters and associated uncertainty assessments. We conclude that there is a need for a pragmatic view in order to 'successfully' apply the Bayesian approach, such that we can do the assignments of some of the probabilities without adopting the somewhat sophisticated procedure of specifying prior distributions of parameters. A simple risk analysis example is presented to illustrate ideas

  20. A mobile water analysis laboratory for the study of stream nutrient and DOC dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Echevarria Roman, Y.; Pullin, M. J.; Schwingle, R.; Gabrielsen, P. J.

    2013-12-01

    The dynamics of nutrient and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) quantity and composition in streams vary with season and in response to hydrologic events. Periodic grab sampling can capture some of this variation, but has also been shown to miss high flow events. Sampling during winter, during thunderstorms, and at night is difficult and sometimes hazardous. For these reasons, we have developed a mobile laboratory that autonomously determines pH, Eh, conductivity, dissolved oxygen, turbidity, nitrate, phosphate, DOC, DIC, as well as DOC fluorescence and absorbance continuously on a minutes timescale. The laboratory includes a Labview operated computer system that allows remote control and interaction with pumps, pressure, temperature, and flow sensors as well as the analytical instruments. Climate control allows for operation in winter. The design and operation of this laboratory will be presented. We will also discuss example data showing diurnal changes and responses to hydrologic events in DOC quantity and quality in the East Fork of the Jemez River, New Mexico.

  1. Game Theoretic Risk Analysis of Security Threats

    CERN Document Server

    Bier, Vicki M

    2008-01-01

    Introduces reliability and risk analysis in the face of threats by intelligent agents. This book covers applications to networks, including problems in both telecommunications and transportation. It provides a set of tools for applying game theory TO reliability problems in the presence of intentional, intelligent threats

  2. Economic impact assessment in pest risk analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Soliman, T.A.A.; Mourits, M.C.M.; Oude Lansink, A.G.J.M.; Werf, van der W.

    2010-01-01

    According to international treaties, phytosanitary measures against introduction and spread of invasive plant pests must be justified by a science-based pest risk analysis (PRA). Part of the PRA consists of an assessment of potential economic consequences. This paper evaluates the main available

  3. Hydrogen isotope analysis of amino acids and whole cells reflects biosynthetic processing of nutrient- and water-derived hydrogen

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griffin, P.; Newsome, S.; Steele, A.; Fogel, M. L.

    2011-12-01

    Hydrogen (H) isotopes serve as sensitive tracers of biochemical processes that can be exploited to answer critical questions in biogeochemistry, ecology, and microbiology. Despite this apparent utility, relatively little is known about the specific mechanisms of H isotope fractionation involved in biosynthesis. In order to understand how organisms incorporate hydrogen from their chemical milieu into biomass, we have cultured the model bacterium E. coli MG1655 in a variety of media composed of deuterium-labeled nutrients and waters. Isotopic analysis of bulk cell mass reveals that the H fractionation between media water and cell material varies as a function of the nutrient source, with commonly used organic food sources (glucose and tryptone) leading to far smaller fractionation signals than non-standard ones (such as formamide, adenine, and urea). In addition, we have completed compound specific isotope analysis of amino acids using combined GC-IRMS. Amino acids harvested from E. coli cultured on glucose in water of varied D/H composition posses an extraordinary range of isotopic compositions (400-600 %). Furthermore, these amino acids follow a systematic distribution of D/H where proline is always heaviest and glycine is always lightest. However, when the short-chain peptide tryptone is used in place of glucose, only the non-essential amino acids reflect media water D/H values, suggesting the direct incorporation of some media-borne amino acids into cellular protein. These observations provide a foundation for understanding the cellular routing of hydrogen obtained from food and water sources and indicate that D/H analysis can serve as a powerful probe of biological function.

  4. The effectiveness of various treatments in changing the nutrient status and bioavailability of risk elements in multi-element contaminated soil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    García-Sánchez, Mercedes; García-Romera, Inmaculada; Száková, Jiřina; Kaplan, Lukáš; Tlustoš, Pavel

    2015-09-01

    Potential changes in the mobility and bioavailability of risk and essential macro- and micro-elements achieved by adding various ameliorative materials were evaluated in a model pot experiment. Spring wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) was cultivated under controlled condition for 60 days in two soils, uncontaminated Chernozem and multi-element contaminated Fluvisol containing 4900 ± 200 mg/kg Zn, 35.4 ± 3.6 mg/kg Cd, and 3035 ± 26 mg/kg Pb. The treatments were all contained the same amount of sulfur and were as follows: (i) digestate from the anaerobic fermentation of biowaste, (ii) fly ash from wood chip combustion, and (iii) ammonium sulfate. Macro- and micro-nutrients Ca, Mg, K, Fe, Mn, Cu, P, and S, and risk elements Cd, Cr, Pb, and Zn were assayed in soil extracts with 0.11 mol/l solution of CH3COOH and in roots, shoots, and grain of wheat after 30 and 60 days of cultivation. Both digestate and fly ash increased levels of macro- and micro-nutrients as well as risk elements (especially Cd and Zn; the mobility of Pb decreased after 30 days of cultivation). The changes in element mobility in ammonium sulfate-treated soils appear to be due to both changes in soil pH level and inter-element interactions. Ammonium sulfate tended to be the most effective measure for increasing nutrient uptake by plants in Chernozem but with opposite pattern in Fluvisol. Changes in plant yield and element uptake in treated plants may have been associated with the higher proline content of wheat shoots cultivated in both soils compared to control. None of the treatments decreased uptake of risk elements by wheat plants in the extremely contaminated Fluvisol, and their accumulation in wheat grains significantly exceeded maximum permissible levels; these treatments cannot be used to enable cereal and other crop production in such soils. However, the combination of increased plant growth alongside unchanged element content in plant biomass in pots treated with digestate

  5. Supplemental Hazard Analysis and Risk Assessment - Hydrotreater

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lowry, Peter P. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Wagner, Katie A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2015-04-01

    A supplemental hazard analysis was conducted and quantitative risk assessment performed in response to an independent review comment received by the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) from the U.S. Department of Energy Pacific Northwest Field Office (PNSO) against the Hydrotreater/Distillation Column Hazard Analysis Report issued in April 2013. The supplemental analysis used the hazardous conditions documented by the previous April 2013 report as a basis. The conditions were screened and grouped for the purpose of identifying whether additional prudent, practical hazard controls could be identified, using a quantitative risk evaluation to assess the adequacy of the controls and establish a lower level of concern for the likelihood of potential serious accidents. Calculations were performed to support conclusions where necessary.

  6. Multivariate survival analysis and competing risks

    CERN Document Server

    Crowder, Martin J

    2012-01-01

    Multivariate Survival Analysis and Competing Risks introduces univariate survival analysis and extends it to the multivariate case. It covers competing risks and counting processes and provides many real-world examples, exercises, and R code. The text discusses survival data, survival distributions, frailty models, parametric methods, multivariate data and distributions, copulas, continuous failure, parametric likelihood inference, and non- and semi-parametric methods. There are many books covering survival analysis, but very few that cover the multivariate case in any depth. Written for a graduate-level audience in statistics/biostatistics, this book includes practical exercises and R code for the examples. The author is renowned for his clear writing style, and this book continues that trend. It is an excellent reference for graduate students and researchers looking for grounding in this burgeoning field of research.

  7. Risks assessment of environmental exposure to certain organo chemicals in male rats: the possible modulatory effect of micro nutrients

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ibrahim, R.Y.M.

    2011-01-01

    Trichloroethylene (TCE) is a widely volatile organic compound, because of its widespread commercial use. So, TCE become a major environmental pollutant. It is the most frequently reported organic contaminant in ground water, so a considerable numbers of people are exposed to TCE via inhalation, through the skin or through drinking water and rarely through food. The main symptoms of exposure are headache, dizziness, and confusion, beyond the effects on the central nervous system, work place exposure to TCE has been associated with toxic effects in many organs including liver, kidney and testes in addition to attenuation to the immune system. The present study aims to investigate the possible modulatory effect of certain micro nutrients such as vitamin C and zinc alone and in combination on the damage of liver, kidney and testes of male rats intoxicated with trichloroethylene for 20 and 105 days. The results showed significant decrease in body and testes weight and increase in liver and kidney weights after long period of treatment with TCE. Some of the selected hematological and biochemical parameters of the rats intoxicated by TCE for short and long period significantly changed. The results revealed significant decrease in free tetraiodothyronine (thyroxine) (FT4) and significant increase in free triiodothyronine (FT3) and thyroid stimulating hormone (Thyrotropin) (TSH) in TCE-intoxicated rat groups for the two periods of treatment. Also results revealed significant decrease of total testosterone in TCE-intoxicated rat groups as compared to that of normal control. Also significant changes were detected in the level of immunoglobulins IgG and IgM.Histopathological examination of liver, kidney and testicular tissues showed significant alteration. The DNA damage was observed in both period of treatment and increased DNA damage with apoptosis was recorded after 105 days of the treatment. Withdrawal group recorded mild improvement in all changed parameters and the

  8. Prediction of Biomass Production and Nutrient Uptake in Land Application Using Partial Least Squares Regression Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vasileios A. Tzanakakis

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Partial Least Squares Regression (PLSR can integrate a great number of variables and overcome collinearity problems, a fact that makes it suitable for intensive agronomical practices such as land application. In the present study a PLSR model was developed to predict important management goals, including biomass production and nutrient recovery (i.e., nitrogen and phosphorus, associated with treatment potential, environmental impacts, and economic benefits. Effluent loading and a considerable number of soil parameters commonly monitored in effluent irrigated lands were considered as potential predictor variables during the model development. All data were derived from a three year field trial including plantations of four different plant species (Acacia cyanophylla, Eucalyptus camaldulensis, Populus nigra, and Arundo donax, irrigated with pre-treated domestic effluent. PLSR method was very effective despite the small sample size and the wide nature of data set (with many highly correlated inputs and several highly correlated responses. Through PLSR method the number of initial predictor variables was reduced and only several variables were remained and included in the final PLSR model. The important input variables maintained were: Effluent loading, electrical conductivity (EC, available phosphorus (Olsen-P, Na+, Ca2+, Mg2+, K2+, SAR, and NO3−-N. Among these variables, effluent loading, EC, and nitrates had the greater contribution to the final PLSR model. PLSR is highly compatible with intensive agronomical practices such as land application, in which a large number of highly collinear and noisy input variables is monitored to assess plant species performance and to detect impacts on the environment.

  9. Risk and safety analysis of nuclear systems

    CERN Document Server

    Lee, John C

    2011-01-01

    The book has been developed in conjunction with NERS 462, a course offered every year to seniors and graduate students in the University of Michigan NERS program. The first half of the book covers the principles of risk analysis, the techniques used to develop and update a reliability data base, the reliability of multi-component systems, Markov methods used to analyze the unavailability of systems with repairs, fault trees and event trees used in probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs), and failure modes of systems. All of this material is general enough that it could be used in non-nuclear a

  10. Terminological Ontologies for Risk and Vulnerability Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Bodil Nistrup; Erdman Thomsen, Hanne

    2014-01-01

    Risk and vulnerability analyses are an important preliminary stage in civil contingency planning. The Danish Emergency Management Agency has developed a generic model and a set of tools that may be used in the preparedness planning, i.e. for identifying and describing society’s critical functions......, for formulating threat scenarios and for assessing consequences. Terminological ontologies, which are systems of domain specific concepts comprising concept relations and characteristics, are useful, both when describing the central concepts of risk and vulnerability analysis (meta concepts), and for further...

  11. Food safety and nutritional quality for the prevention of non communicable diseases: the Nutrient, hazard Analysis and Critical Control Point process (NACCP).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Renzo, Laura; Colica, Carmen; Carraro, Alberto; Cenci Goga, Beniamino; Marsella, Luigi Tonino; Botta, Roberto; Colombo, Maria Laura; Gratteri, Santo; Chang, Ting Fa Margherita; Droli, Maurizio; Sarlo, Francesca; De Lorenzo, Antonino

    2015-04-23

    The important role of food and nutrition in public health is being increasingly recognized as crucial for its potential impact on health-related quality of life and the economy, both at the societal and individual levels. The prevalence of non-communicable diseases calls for a reformulation of our view of food. The Hazard Analysis and Critical Control Point (HACCP) system, first implemented in the EU with the Directive 43/93/CEE, later replaced by Regulation CE 178/2002 and Regulation CE 852/2004, is the internationally agreed approach for food safety control. Our aim is to develop a new procedure for the assessment of the Nutrient, hazard Analysis and Critical Control Point (NACCP) process, for total quality management (TMQ), and optimize nutritional levels. NACCP was based on four general principles: i) guarantee of health maintenance; ii) evaluate and assure the nutritional quality of food and TMQ; iii) give correct information to the consumers; iv) ensure an ethical profit. There are three stages for the application of the NACCP process: 1) application of NACCP for quality principles; 2) application of NACCP for health principals; 3) implementation of the NACCP process. The actions are: 1) identification of nutritional markers, which must remain intact throughout the food supply chain; 2) identification of critical control points which must monitored in order to minimize the likelihood of a reduction in quality; 3) establishment of critical limits to maintain adequate levels of nutrient; 4) establishment, and implementation of effective monitoring procedures of critical control points; 5) establishment of corrective actions; 6) identification of metabolic biomarkers; 7) evaluation of the effects of food intake, through the application of specific clinical trials; 8) establishment of procedures for consumer information; 9) implementation of the Health claim Regulation EU 1924/2006; 10) starting a training program. We calculate the risk assessment as follows

  12. Risk analysis for earth dam overtopping

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mo Chongxun

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, a model of overtopping risk under the joint effects of floods and wind waves, which is based on risk analysis theory and takes into account the uncertainties of floods, wind waves, reservoir capacity and discharge capacity of the spillway, is proposed and applied to the Chengbihe Reservoir in Baise City in Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region. The simulated results indicate that the flood control limiting level can be raised by 0.40 m under the condition that the reservoir overtopping risk is controlled within a mean variance of 5×10−6. As a result, the reservoir storage will increase to 16 million m3 and electrical energy generation and other functions of the reservoir will also increase greatly.

  13. Investment appraisal using quantitative risk analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johansson, Henrik

    2002-07-01

    Investment appraisal concerned with investments in fire safety systems is discussed. Particular attention is directed at evaluating, in terms of the Bayesian decision theory, the risk reduction that investment in a fire safety system involves. It is shown how the monetary value of the change from a building design without any specific fire protection system to one including such a system can be estimated by use of quantitative risk analysis, the results of which are expressed in terms of a Risk-adjusted net present value. This represents the intrinsic monetary value of investing in the fire safety system. The method suggested is exemplified by a case study performed in an Avesta Sheffield factory.

  14. Quantitative Risk Analysis: Method And Process

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anass BAYAGA

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available Recent and past studies (King III report, 2009: 73-75; Stoney 2007;Committee of Sponsoring Organisation-COSO, 2004, Bartell, 2003; Liebenberg and Hoyt, 2003; Reason, 2000; Markowitz 1957 lament that although, the introduction of quantifying risk to enhance degree of objectivity in finance for instance was quite parallel to its development in the manufacturing industry, it is not the same in Higher Education Institution (HEI. In this regard, the objective of the paper was to demonstrate the methods and process of Quantitative Risk Analysis (QRA through likelihood of occurrence of risk (phase I. This paper serves as first of a two-phased study, which sampled hundred (100 risk analysts in a University in the greater Eastern Cape Province of South Africa.The analysis of likelihood of occurrence of risk by logistic regression and percentages were conducted to investigate whether there were a significant difference or not between groups (analyst in respect of QRA.The Hosmer and Lemeshow test was non-significant with a chi-square(X2 =8.181; p = 0.300, which indicated that there was a good model fit, since the data did not significantly deviate from the model. The study concluded that to derive an overall likelihood rating that indicated the probability that a potential risk may be exercised within the construct of an associated threat environment, the following governing factors must be considered: (1 threat source motivation and capability (2 nature of the vulnerability (3 existence and effectiveness of current controls (methods and process.

  15. A systematic review and meta-analysis of the nutrient content of preterm and term breast milk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gidrewicz, Dominica A; Fenton, Tanis R

    2014-08-30

    Breast milk nutrient content varies with prematurity and postnatal age. Our aims were to conduct a meta-analysis of preterm and term breast milk nutrient content (energy, protein, lactose, oligosaccharides, fat, calcium, and phosphorus); and to assess the influence of gestational and postnatal age. Additionally we assessed for differences by laboratory methods for: energy (measured vs. calculated estimates) and protein (true protein measurement vs. the total nitrogen estimates). Systematic review results were summarized graphically to illustrate the changes in composition over time for term and preterm milk. Since breast milk fat content varies within feeds and diurnally, to obtain accurate estimates we limited the meta-analyses for fat and energy to 24-hour breast milk collections. Forty-one studies met the inclusion criteria: 26 (843 mothers) preterm studies and 30 (2299 mothers) term studies of breast milk composition. Preterm milk was higher in true protein than term milk, with differences up to 35% (0.7 g/dL) in colostrum, however, after postnatal day 3, most of the differences in true protein between preterm and term milk were within 0.2 g/dL, and the week 10-12 estimates suggested that term milk may be the same as preterm milk by that age. Colostrum was higher than mature milk for protein, and lower than mature milk for energy, fat and lactose for both preterm and term milk. Breast milk composition was relatively stable between 2 and 12 weeks. With milk maturation, there was a narrowing of the protein variance. Energy estimates differed whether measured or calculated, from -9 to 13%; true protein measurement vs. the total nitrogen estimates differed by 1 to 37%. Although breast milk is highly variable between individuals, postnatal age and gestational stage (preterm versus term) were found to be important predictors of breast milk content. Energy content of breast milk calculated from the macronutrients provides poor estimates of measured energy, and protein

  16. Transcriptional analysis of the conidiation pattern shift of the entomopathogenic fungus Metarhizium acridum in response to different nutrients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Zhenglong; Jin, Kai; Xia, Yuxian

    2016-08-09

    Most fungi, including entomopathogenic fungi, have two different conidiation patterns, normal and microcycle conidiation, under different culture conditions, eg, in media containing different nutrients. However, the mechanisms underlying the conidiation pattern shift are poorly understood. In this study, Metarhizium acridum undergoing microcycle conidiation on sucrose yeast extract agar (SYA) medium shifted to normal conidiation when the medium was supplemented with sucrose, nitrate, or phosphate. By linking changes in nutrients with the conidiation pattern shift and transcriptional changes, we obtained conidiation pattern shift libraries by Solexa/Illumina deep-sequencing technology. A comparative analysis demonstrated that the expression of 137 genes was up-regulated during the shift to normal conidiation, while the expression of 436 genes was up-regulated at the microcycle conidiation stage. A comparison of subtractive libraries revealed that 83, 216, and 168 genes were related to sucrose-induced, nitrate-induced, and phosphate-induced conidiation pattern shifts, respectively. The expression of 217 genes whose expression was specific to microcycle conidiation was further analyzed by the gene expression profiling via multigene concatemers method using mRNA isolated from M. acridum grown on SYA and the four normal conidiation media. The expression of 142 genes was confirmed to be up-regulated on standard SYA medium. Of these 142 genes, 101 encode hypothetical proteins or proteins of unknown function, and only 41 genes encode proteins with putative functions. Of these 41 genes, 18 are related to cell growth, 10 are related to cell proliferation, three are related to the cell cycle, three are related to cell differentiation, two are related to cell wall synthesis, two are related to cell division, and seven have other functions. These results indicate that the conidiation pattern shift in M. acridum mainly results from changes in cell growth and proliferation. The

  17. One hundred percent orange juice consumption is associated with better diet quality, improved nutrient adequacy, and no increased risk for overweight/obesity in children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Neil, Carol E; Nicklas, Theresa A; Rampersaud, Gail C; Fulgoni, Victor L

    2011-09-01

    The purpose of this study was to examine the association of 100% orange juice (OJ) consumption by children 2 to 18 years of age (n = 7250) participating in the 2003 to 2006 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey with intakes of select nutrients, MyPyramid food groups, diet quality-measured by the Healthy Eating Index-2005, weight status, and associated risk factors. The National Cancer Institute method was used to estimate the usual intake of 100% OJ consumption, selected nutrients, and MyPyramid food groups. Percentages of the population below the Estimated Average Requirement were determined. Covariate adjusted logistic regression was used to determine if consumers had a lower odds ratio of being overweight or obese. Usual per capita intake of 100% OJ was 1.7 oz/d. Among consumers, the usual intake of 100% OJ for children (n = 2183; 26.2% of population) was 10.2 oz/d. Consumers had higher (P juice, and whole fruit. Moderate consumption of 100% OJ should be encouraged in children as a component of a healthy diet. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. Risk analysis as a decision tool

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yadigaroglu, G.; Chakraborty, S.

    1985-01-01

    From 1983 - 1985 a lecture series entitled ''Risk-benefit analysis'' was held at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology (ETH), Zurich, in cooperation with the Central Department for the Safety of Nuclear Installations of the Swiss Federal Agency of Energy Economy. In that setting the value of risk-oriented evaluation models as a decision tool in safety questions was discussed on a broad basis. Experts of international reputation from the Federal Republic of Germany, France, Canada, the United States and Switzerland have contributed to report in this joint volume on the uses of such models. Following an introductory synopsis on risk analysis and risk assessment the book deals with practical examples in the fields of medicine, nuclear power, chemistry, transport and civil engineering. Particular attention is paid to the dialogue between analysts and decision makers taking into account the economic-technical aspects and social values. The recent chemical disaster in the Indian city of Bhopal again signals the necessity of such analyses. All the lectures were recorded individually. (orig./HP) [de

  19. Quantitative risk analysis preoperational of gas pipeline

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Manfredi, Carlos; Bispo, Gustavo G.; Esteves, Alvaro [Gie S.A., Buenos Aires (Argentina)

    2009-07-01

    The purpose of this analysis is to predict how it can be affected the individual risk and the public's general security due to the operation of a gas pipeline. In case that the single or social risks are considered intolerable, compared with the international standards, to be recommended measures of mitigation of the risk associated to the operation until levels that can be considered compatible with the best practices in the industry. The quantitative risk analysis calculates the probability of occurrence of an event based on the frequency of occurrence of the same one and it requires a complex mathematical treatment. The present work has as objective to develop a calculation methodology based on the previously mentioned publication. This calculation methodology is centered in defining the frequencies of occurrence of events, according to representative database of each case in study. Besides, it settles down the consequences particularly according to the considerations of each area and the different possibilities of interferences with the gas pipeline in study. For each one of the interferences a typical curve of ignition probabilities is developed in function from the distance to the pipe. (author)

  20. Risk analysis in oil spill response planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chernoplekov, A.N.; Alexandrov, A.A.

    2005-01-01

    Tiered response is a basic approach to emergency plans, including oil spill response (OSR). This paper delineates a huge set of accidental scenarios within a certain tier of response generated by a computer during risk assessment. Parameters such as the amount of oil spilled, duration of discharge and types of losses should be provided in OSR scenarios. Examples of applications include offshore installations, sub sea or onshore pipelines, and localized onshore facilities. The paper demonstrates how to use risk analysis results for delineating all likely spills into groups that need a specific tier response. The best world practices and Russian regulatory approaches were outlined and compared. Corresponding algorithms were developed and their application in pipelines was presented. The algorithm combines expert's skills and spill trajectory modeling with the net environmental benefit analysis principle into the incident specific emergency response planning. 9 refs., 13 tabs., 2 figs

  1. Integrated Reliability and Risk Analysis System (IRRAS)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Russell, K.D.; McKay, M.K.; Sattison, M.B.; Skinner, N.L.; Wood, S.T.; Rasmuson, D.M.

    1992-01-01

    The Integrated Reliability and Risk Analysis System (IRRAS) is a state-of-the-art, microcomputer-based probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) model development and analysis tool to address key nuclear plant safety issues. IRRAS is an integrated software tool that gives the user the ability to create and analyze fault trees and accident sequences using a microcomputer. This program provides functions that range from graphical fault tree construction to cut set generation and quantification. Version 1.0 of the IRRAS program was released in February of 1987. Since that time, many user comments and enhancements have been incorporated into the program providing a much more powerful and user-friendly system. This version has been designated IRRAS 4.0 and is the subject of this Reference Manual. Version 4.0 of IRRAS provides the same capabilities as Version 1.0 and adds a relational data base facility for managing the data, improved functionality, and improved algorithm performance

  2. Zero risk fuel fabrication: a systems analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1979-01-01

    Zero risk is a concept used to ensure that system requirements are developed through a systems approach such that the choice(s) among alternatives represents the balanced viewpoints of performance, achievability and risk. Requirements to ensure characteristics such as stringent accountability, low personnel exposure and etc. are needed to guide the development of component and subsystems for future LMFBR fuel supply systems. To establish a consistent and objective set of requirements, RF and M-TMC has initiated a systems requirements analysis activity. This activity pivots on judgement and experience provided by a Task Force representing industrial companies engaged in fuel fabrication in licensed facilities. The Task Force members are listed in Appendix A. Input developed by this group is presented as a starting point for the systems requirements analysis

  3. Risk Analysis of Accounting Information System Infrastructure

    OpenAIRE

    MIHALACHE, Arsenie-Samoil

    2011-01-01

    National economy and security are fully dependent on information technology and infrastructure. At the core of the information infrastructure society relies on, we have the Internet, a system designed initially as a scientists’ forum for unclassified research. The use of communication networks and systems may lead to hazardous situations that generate undesirable effects such as communication systems breakdown, loss of data or taking the wrong decisions. The paper studies the risk analysis of...

  4. Risk analysis of external radiation therapy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arvidsson, Marcus

    2011-09-01

    External radiation therapy is carried out via a complex treatment process in which many different groups of staff work together. Much of the work is dependent on and in collaboration with advanced technical equipment. The purpose of the research task has been to identify a process for external radiation therapy and to identify, test and analyze a suitable method for performing risk analysis of external radiation therapy

  5. Risk and value analysis of SETI

    Science.gov (United States)

    Billingham, J.

    1990-01-01

    This paper attempts to apply a traditional risk and value analysis to the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence--SETI. In view of the difficulties of assessing the probability of success, a comparison is made between SETI and a previous search for extraterrestrial life, the biological component of Project Viking. Our application of simple Utility Theory, given some reasonable assumptions, suggests that SETI is at least as worthwhile as the biological experiment on Viking.

  6. Applied decision analysis and risk evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ferse, W.; Kruber, S.

    1995-01-01

    During 1994 the workgroup 'Applied Decision Analysis and Risk Evaluation; continued the work on the knowledge based decision support system XUMA-GEFA for the evaluation of the hazard potential of contaminated sites. Additionally a new research direction was started which aims at the support of a later stage of the treatment of contaminated sites: The clean-up decision. For the support of decisions arising at this stage, the methods of decision analysis will be used. Computational aids for evaluation and decision support were implemented and a case study at a waste disposal site in Saxony which turns out to be a danger for the surrounding groundwater ressource was initiated. (orig.)

  7. LANDSAFE: LANDING SITE RISK ANALYSIS SOFTWARE FRAMEWORK

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Schmidt

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available The European Space Agency (ESA is planning a Lunar Lander mission in the 2018 timeframe that will demonstrate precise soft landing at the polar regions of the Moon. To ensure a safe and successful landing a careful risk analysis has to be carried out. This is comprised of identifying favorable target areas and evaluating the surface conditions in these areas. Features like craters, boulders, steep slopes, rough surfaces and shadow areas have to be identified in order to assess the risk associated to a landing site in terms of a successful touchdown and subsequent surface operation of the lander. In addition, global illumination conditions at the landing site have to be simulated and analyzed. The Landing Site Risk Analysis software framework (LandSAfe is a system for the analysis, selection and certification of safe landing sites on the lunar surface. LandSAfe generates several data products including high resolution digital terrain models (DTMs, hazard maps, illumination maps, temperature maps and surface reflectance maps which assist the user in evaluating potential landing site candidates. This paper presents the LandSAfe system and describes the methods and products of the different modules. For one candidate landing site on the rim of Shackleton crater at the south pole of the Moon a high resolution DTM is showcased.

  8. Correspondence analysis evaluation of linear nutrient distribution in root tips of the tropical forage Brachiaria brizantha

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pineda-Vargas, C.A.; Prozesky, V.M.; Przybylowicz, W.J.; Mayer, J.E.

    2001-01-01

    The technique of correspondence analysis was applied to a set of data obtained from X-ray elemental analysis by nuclear microscopy. Hydroponic experiments simulating tropical acid soil conditions were carried out to determine possible mechanisms of Al-toxicity stress on specific varieties of the genus Brachiaria. In particular the species Brachiaria brizantha was tested for gradient variation along the central cylinder of selected root tips. Single-point irradiations by nuclear microscopy gave some indication of a possible trace element profile gradient along the root axis. To be able to extrapolate the possible correlation and trace elemental concentrations gradients to a more confident level, this nuclear microscopy data obtained was analysed by correspondence analysis. A clear gradient on the plot of the first two axes of the correspondence analysis was found. The correlation of Ca and Cu as well as that of K and Cl were established

  9. NutriSonic web expert system for meal management and nutrition counseling with nutrient time-series analysis, e-food exchange and easy data transition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hong, Soon-Myung; Cho, Jee-Ye; Lee, Jin-Hee; Kim, Gon; Kim, Min-Chan

    2008-01-01

    This study was conducted to develop the NutriSonic Web Expert System for Meal Management and Nutrition Counseling with Analysis of User's Nutritive Changes of selected days and food exchange information with easy data transition. This program manipulates a food, menu and meal and search database that has been developed. Also, the system provides a function to check the user's nutritive change of selected days. Users can select a recommended general and therapeutic menu using this system. NutriSonic can analyze nutrients and e-food exchange ("e" means the food exchange data base calculated by a computer program) in menus and meals. The expert can insert and store a meal database and generate the synthetic information of age, sex and therapeutic purpose of disease. With investigation and analysis of the user's needs, the meal planning program on the internet has been continuously developed. Users are able to follow up their nutritive changes with nutrient information and ratio of 3 major energy nutrients. Also, users can download another data format like Excel files (.xls) for analysis and verify their nutrient time-series analysis. The results of analysis are presented quickly and accurately. Therefore it can be used by not only usual people, but also by dietitians and nutritionists who take charge of making a menu and experts in the field of food and nutrition. It is expected that the NutriSonic Web Expert System can be useful for nutrition education, nutrition counseling and expert meal management.

  10. Safety analysis and risk assessment handbook

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peterson, V.L.; Colwell, R.G.; Dickey, R.L.

    1997-01-01

    This Safety Analysis and Risk Assessment Handbook (SARAH) provides guidance to the safety analyst at the Rocky Flats Environmental Technology Site (RFETS) in the preparation of safety analyses and risk assessments. Although the older guidance (the Rocky Flats Risk Assessment Guide) continues to be used for updating the Final Safety Analysis Reports developed in the mid-1980s, this new guidance is used with all new authorization basis documents. With the mission change at RFETS came the need to establish new authorization basis documents for its facilities, whose functions had changed. The methodology and databases for performing the evaluations that support the new authorization basis documents had to be standardized, to avoid the use of different approaches and/or databases for similar accidents in different facilities. This handbook presents this new standardized approach. The handbook begins with a discussion of the requirements of the different types of authorization basis documents and how to choose the one appropriate for the facility to be evaluated. It then walks the analyst through the process of identifying all the potential hazards in the facility, classifying them, and choosing the ones that need to be analyzed further. It then discusses the methods for evaluating accident initiation and progression and covers the basic steps in a safety analysis, including consequence and frequency binning and risk ranking. The handbook lays out standardized approaches for determining the source terms of the various accidents (including airborne release fractions, leakpath factors, etc.), the atmospheric dispersion factors appropriate for Rocky Flats, and the methods for radiological and chemical consequence assessments. The radiological assessments use a radiological open-quotes templateclose quotes, a spreadsheet that incorporates the standard values of parameters, whereas the chemical assessments use the standard codes ARCHIE and ALOHA

  11. How to Create a Student-Generated Database, in a Large Nutrition Class, to Illustrate the Analysis of Nutrient and Food Intakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gurfinkel, Debbie M.; Wolever, Thomas M. S.

    2017-01-01

    The completion of a 3-d food record, using commonly available nutrient analysis software, is a typical assignment for students in nutrition and food science programs. While these assignments help students evaluate their personal diets, it is insufficient to teach students about surveys of large population cohorts. This paper shows how the Test,…

  12. High saturated-fat and low-fibre intake: a comparative analysis of nutrient intake in individuals with and without type 2 diabetes

    OpenAIRE

    Breen, C; Ryan, M; McNulty, B; Gibney, M J; Canavan, R; O'Shea, D

    2014-01-01

    Objective: The aim of dietary modification, as a cornerstone of type 2 diabetes (T2DM) management, is to optimise metabolic control and overall health. This study describes food and nutrient intake in a sample of adults with T2DM, and compares this to recommendations, and to intake in age, sex, body mass index (BMI) and social-class matched adults without T2DM. Design: A cross-sectional analysis of food and nutrient intake in 124 T2DM individuals (64% male; age 57.4±5.6 years, BMI 32.5±5.8 kg...

  13. Real-time monitoring and analysis of nutrient transportation in a living plant using a positron emitting tracer imaging system (PETIS)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Matsuhashi, Shinpei

    2005-01-01

    We visualized the uptake and transportation of nutrition in a living plant using positron-emitting tracers and mathematical analysis of the data. We have been developing a positron-imaging technique to visualize the uptake and transportation of nutrients in a plant by a positron-emitting tracer-imaging system (PETIS) using positron-emitting nuclide-labeled compounds. The PETIS data is analyzed mathematically to understand the physiological meaning of the physical parameters. In this study, the results on the uptake and transportation of nutrients, which were obtained with the use of a positron-imaging method, are introduced. (author)

  14. Risk analysis of nuclear safeguards regulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Al-Ayat, R.A.; Altman, W.D.; Judd, B.R.

    1982-06-01

    The Aggregated Systems Model (ASM), a probabilisitic risk analysis tool for nuclear safeguards, was applied to determine benefits and costs of proposed amendments to NRC regulations governing nuclear material control and accounting systems. The objective of the amendments was to improve the ability to detect insiders attempting to steal large quantities of special nuclear material (SNM). Insider threats range from likely events with minor consequences to unlikely events with catastrophic consequences. Moreover, establishing safeguards regulations is complicated by uncertainties in threats, safeguards performance, and consequences, and by the subjective judgments and difficult trade-offs between risks and safeguards costs. The ASM systematically incorporates these factors in a comprehensive, analytical framework. The ASM was used to evaluate the effectiveness of current safeguards and to quantify the risk of SNM theft. Various modifications designed to meet the objectives of the proposed amendments to reduce that risk were analyzed. Safeguards effectiveness was judged in terms of the probability of detecting and preventing theft, the expected time to detection, and the expected quantity of SNM diverted in a year. Data were gathered in tours and interviews at NRC-licensed facilities. The assessment at each facility was begun by carefully selecting scenarios representing the range of potential insider threats. A team of analysts and facility managers assigned probabilities for detection and prevention events in each scenario. Using the ASM we computed the measures of system effectiveness and identified cost-effective safeguards modifications that met the objectives of the proposed amendments

  15. AGROFOREST SYSTEM INVESTMENT ANALYSIS UNDER RISK

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luiz Moreira Coelho Junior

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available Agroforestry System is the ecological and economical interaction of the use of the land, with the combination ofagriculture, livestock and forest production, in temporary sequence and in a simultaneous way. The studies of investments in projectsassume the existence of risks and uncertainties. An alternative to reduce the risk in the forest investment is the association with theagricultural. This work analyzed the situations of risk of a system agroflorestal. Monte Carlo s method comes from the theory ofsimulations and stands out as a powerful and useful tool to provide a distribution of probabilities for the analysis of decision. A totalof 10,000 interactions of the Net Present Value (VPL, of Internal Rate of Return (TIR and of the Equivalent Periodic Benefit (BPEwere made in order to establish the probability distribution. The results presented 78.65% of chance of VPL being US$ 1,410.00;77.56% of chance of TIR being 36.36%, and; 75.39% of chance of BPE being US$ 309.70; the agroforestry system presented lowinvestment risk; and the livestock is the main product of the agrossilvopastoril system, followed by charcoal.

  16. Approach to uncertainty in risk analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rish, W.R.

    1988-08-01

    In the Fall of 1985 EPA's Office of Radiation Programs (ORP) initiated a project to develop a formal approach to dealing with uncertainties encountered when estimating and evaluating risks to human health and the environment. Based on a literature review of modeling uncertainty, interviews with ORP technical and management staff, and input from experts on uncertainty analysis, a comprehensive approach was developed. This approach recognizes by design the constraints on budget, time, manpower, expertise, and availability of information often encountered in ''real world'' modeling. It is based on the observation that in practice risk modeling is usually done to support a decision process. As such, the approach focuses on how to frame a given risk modeling problem, how to use that framing to select an appropriate mixture of uncertainty analyses techniques, and how to integrate the techniques into an uncertainty assessment that effectively communicates important information and insight to decision-makers. The approach is presented in this report. Practical guidance on characterizing and analyzing uncertainties about model form and quantities and on effectively communicating uncertainty analysis results is included. Examples from actual applications are presented.

  17. Approach to uncertainty in risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rish, W.R.

    1988-08-01

    In the Fall of 1985 EPA's Office of Radiation Programs (ORP) initiated a project to develop a formal approach to dealing with uncertainties encountered when estimating and evaluating risks to human health and the environment. Based on a literature review of modeling uncertainty, interviews with ORP technical and management staff, and input from experts on uncertainty analysis, a comprehensive approach was developed. This approach recognizes by design the constraints on budget, time, manpower, expertise, and availability of information often encountered in ''real world'' modeling. It is based on the observation that in practice risk modeling is usually done to support a decision process. As such, the approach focuses on how to frame a given risk modeling problem, how to use that framing to select an appropriate mixture of uncertainty analyses techniques, and how to integrate the techniques into an uncertainty assessment that effectively communicates important information and insight to decision-makers. The approach is presented in this report. Practical guidance on characterizing and analyzing uncertainties about model form and quantities and on effectively communicating uncertainty analysis results is included. Examples from actual applications are presented

  18. Environmental hazard analysis - contamination of nutrients, mercury and cesium-137 in natural waters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hakanson, L.

    1990-01-01

    Results from some ongoing Swedish research projects on different types of contamination of limnic as well as marine areas are summarized. A brief theoretical outline on the central concepts of the 'meso-scale-type' of environmental hazard analysis, utilizing examples on eutrophication of coastal waters is given. The concepts are further substantiated in two subsequent parts dealing with radioactive cesium and mercury. The idea is to illustrate that the basic concepts for ('real' world/'meso scale') environmental hazard analysis can be used for different substances and different aquatic environments. It is important to give clear, quantifiable definitions of the effect, dose and environmental sensitivity parameters, which should be valid for a defined area and for a defined span of time. All other parameters should be compatible and have the same area and time resolution. (author)

  19. SIMULATION AND PRELIMINARY ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF A COMPLEX OF NUTRIENTS USING CAMISEA GAS

    OpenAIRE

    Porlles L., J.; Cárdenas R., J.

    2014-01-01

    Peru is in fact a country with important reservoirs of natural gas as Camisea and it opens potential opportunities for gas chemical development. In a mark of a higher enterprise competitiveness, in industry any time is more generalized to account with tools as support for enhanced of process and cost savings. The simulation and optimization of industrial process aided by computer is a powerful alternative. This work has as propose to make the design of a process an economical analysis with pr...

  20. System Analysis and Risk Assessment (SARA) system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krantz, E.A.; Russell, K.D.; Stewart, H.D.; Van Siclen, V.S.

    1986-01-01

    Utilization of Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) related information in the day-to-day operation of plant systems has, in the past, been impracticable due to the size of the computers needed to run PRA codes. This paper discusses a microcomputer-based database system which can greatly enhance the capability of operators or regulators to incorporate PRA methodologies into their routine decision making. This system is called the System Analysis and Risk Assessment (SARA) system. SARA was developed by EG and G Idaho, Inc. at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory to facilitate the study of frequency and consequence analyses of accident sequences from a large number of light water reactors (LWRs) in this country. This information is being amassed by several studies sponsored by the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC). To meet the need of portability and accessibility, and to perform the variety of calculations necessary, it was felt that a microcomputer-based system would be most suitable

  1. Methodologies for risk analysis in slope instability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bernabeu Garcia, M.; Diaz Torres, J. A.

    2014-01-01

    This paper is an approach to the different methodologies used in conducting landslide risk maps so that the reader can get a basic knowledge about how to proceed in its development. The landslide hazard maps are increasingly demanded by governments. This is because due to climate change, deforestation and the pressure exerted by the growth of urban centers, damage caused by natural phenomena is increasing each year, making this area of work a field of study with increasing importance. To explain the process of mapping a journey through each of the phases of which it is composed is made: from the study of the types of slope movements and the necessary management of geographic information systems (GIS) inventories and landslide susceptibility analysis, threat, vulnerability and risk. (Author)

  2. Model risk analysis for risk management and option pricing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kerkhof, F.L.J.

    2003-01-01

    Due to the growing complexity of products in financial markets, market participants rely more and more on quantitative models for trading and risk management decisions. This introduces a fairly new type of risk, namely, model risk. In the first part of this thesis we investigate the quantitative

  3. Providing lipid-based nutrient supplement during pregnancy does not reduce the risk of maternal P falciparum parasitaemia and reproductive tract infections: a randomised controlled trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nkhoma, Minyanga; Ashorn, Per; Ashorn, Ulla; Dewey, Kathryn G; Gondwe, Austrida; Mbotwa, John; Rogerson, Stephen; Taylor, Steve M; Maleta, Kenneth

    2017-01-17

    Maternal infections are associated with maternal and foetal adverse outcomes. Nutrient supplementation during pregnancy may reduce the occurrence of infections by improving maternal immunity. We aimed to investigate the impact of small-quantity lipid-based nutrient supplement (SQ-LNS) on the occurrence of Plasmodium falciparum parasitaemia during pregnancy and trichomoniasis, vaginal candidiasis and urinary tract infection (UTI) after delivery. Pregnant Malawian women enrolled in the iLiNS-DYAD trial receiving daily supplementation with SQ-LNS, multiple micronutrients (MMN) or iron & folic acid (IFA) from UTI using urine dipstick analysis. The prevalence of each infection by intervention group was estimated at the prescribed time points and the global null hypothesis was tested using logistic regression. Adjusted analyses were performed using preselected covariates. The prevalence of P. falciparum parasitaemia was 10.7% at 32 gw, 9% at 36 gw, and 8.3% by RDT and 20.2% by PCR at delivery. After delivery the prevalence of trichomoniasis was 10.5%, vaginal candidiasis was 0.5%, and UTI was 3.1%. There were no differences between intervention groups in the prevalence of any of the infections. In this population, SQ-LNS did not influence the occurrence of maternal P. falciparum parasitaemia, trichomoniasis, vaginal candidiasis or UTI. Identifier: NCT01239693 (10 November 2010).

  4. Nuclear risk analysis of the Ulysses mission

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bartram, B.W.; Vaughan, F.R.; Englehart, D.R.W.

    1991-01-01

    The use of a radioisotope thermoelectric generator fueled with plutonium-238 dioxide on the Space Shuttle-launched Ulysses mission implies some level of risk due to potential accidents. This paper describes the method used to quantify risks in the Ulysses mission Final Safety Analysis Report prepared for the U.S. Department of Energy. The starting point for the analysis described herein is following input of source term probability distributions from the General Electric Company. A Monte Carlo technique is used to develop probability distributions of radiological consequences for a range of accident scenarios thoughout the mission. Factors affecting radiological consequences are identified, the probability distribution of the effect of each factor determined, and the functional relationship among all the factors established. The probability distributions of all the factor effects are then combined using a Monte Carlo technique. The results of the analysis are presented in terms of complementary cumulative distribution functions (CCDF) by mission sub-phase, phase, and the overall mission. The CCDFs show the total probability that consequences (calculated health effects) would be equal to or greater than a given value

  5. Risk management and analysis: risk assessment (qualitative and quantitative)

    OpenAIRE

    Valentin Mazareanu

    2007-01-01

    We use to define risk as the possibility of suffering a loss. Starting this, risk management is defined as a business process whose purpose is to ensure that the organization is protected against risks and their effects. In order to prioritize, to develop a response plan and after that to monitor the identified risks we need to asses them. But at this point a question is born: should I choose a qualitative approach or a quantitative one? This paper will make a short overview over the risk eva...

  6. The subtropical nutrient spiral

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jenkins, William J.; Doney, Scott C.

    2003-12-01

    We present an extended series of observations and more comprehensive analysis of a tracer-based measure of new production in the Sargasso Sea near Bermuda using the 3He flux gauge technique. The estimated annually averaged nitrate flux of 0.84 ± 0.26 mol m-2 yr-1 constitutes only that nitrate physically transported to the euphotic zone, not nitrogen from biological sources (e.g., nitrogen fixation or zooplankton migration). We show that the flux estimate is quantitatively consistent with other observations, including decade timescale evolution of the 3H + 3He inventory in the main thermocline and export production estimates. However, we argue that the flux cannot be supplied in the long term by local diapycnal or isopycnal processes. These considerations lead us to propose a three-dimensional pathway whereby nutrients remineralized within the main thermocline are returned to the seasonally accessible layers within the subtropical gyre. We describe this mechanism, which we call "the nutrient spiral," as a sequence of steps where (1) nutrient-rich thermocline waters are entrained into the Gulf Stream, (2) enhanced diapycnal mixing moves nutrients upward onto lighter densities, (3) detrainment and enhanced isopycnal mixing injects these waters into the seasonally accessible layer of the gyre recirculation region, and (4) the nutrients become available to biota via eddy heaving and wintertime convection. The spiral is closed when nutrients are utilized, exported, and then remineralized within the thermocline. We present evidence regarding the characteristics of the spiral and discuss some implications of its operation within the biogeochemical cycle of the subtropical ocean.

  7. RISK ANALYSIS APPLIED IN OIL EXPLORATION AND PRODUCTION

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ES Obe

    aDepartment of Civil Engineering, University of Nigeria, Nsukka, Enugu State, Nigeria. ... The analysis in this work is ... risk analysis, oil field, risk management, projects, investment opportunity. 1. .... own merit but since the company has limited.

  8. Nutrient Reduction in Agricultural Green Infrastructure: An Analysis of the Raccoon River Watershed

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    James F. Canning

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available Agricultural intensification has had the undesirable effect of degrading water quality throughout the United States. Nitrate pollution presents a difficult problem for rural and urban communities, and it contributes to the immense Gulf of Mexico Hypoxia Zone. Current U.S. policy prohibits regulation of agricultural runoff because it is a nonpoint source. The Raccoon River Watershed upstream of Des Moines, Iowa, USA has some of the highest nitrate levels in the nation, and the drinking water utility in Des Moines unsuccessfully pursued litigation against drainage districts in the watershed. We propose a cooperative solution between urban residents and upstream rural residents—namely, the installation of agricultural green infrastructure in the form of riparian buffers throughout the watershed enabled by the principles of water quality trading. We compare this distributed, green approach with a centralized, gray approach (i.e., building a new nitrate removal facility at the drinking water utility. Using terrain analysis, we determined that first-order streams are the most fitting location for riparian buffers. We estimate the buffer installation to cost between $155–$185 million; maintenance of the current nitrate removal facility will cost $72 million, while a new facility could cost up to $184 million. Riparian buffer installation offers more indirect, non-quantified benefits than maintaining or building new centralized, gray treatment (e.g., living-wage jobs and in-stream water quality improvement. Our analysis could act as a model for water quality trading and distributed agricultural green infrastructure in other communities facing similar water quality challenges.

  9. Analysis and risk management after Fukushima

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nelson, P. F.

    2011-11-01

    This article describes the impact in the nuclear industry after the only accidents with affectation to the public: the Three Mile Island and Chernobyl. and discusses what comes after Fukushima with regard to the Safety Probabilistic Analysis (Spa) and their use in the decisions taking. A reference to the standard ASME/ANS of Spa is made and the possible changes due to the learned lessons after the Fukushima accident. The main changes are described in the art state and the priorities of the Spa studies. These include the change in the mission time of the emergency systems, the necessity to model the alternating systems, the risk consideration of a site with multi-units, the importance of making a Spa level 3 and the Spa of external events. The Spa is the key tool of the discipline of risk management, but given the learned lessons, is more necessary in all the aspects of the operation and surveillance of a nuclear power plant. A strategy is presented to improve the response to a severe accident, that includes consider the risks of the specific nuclear power plant. (Author)

  10. Risk Analysis Approach to Rainwater Harvesting Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nadia Ursino

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Urban rainwater reuse preserves water resources and promotes sustainable development in rapidly growing urban areas. The efficiency of a large number of urban water reuse systems, operating under different climate and demand conditions, is evaluated here on the base of a new risk analysis approach. Results obtained by probability analysis (PA indicate that maximum efficiency in low demanding scenarios is above 0.5 and a threshold, distinguishing low from high demanding scenarios, indicates that in low demanding scenarios no significant improvement in performance may be attained by increasing the storage capacity of rainwater harvesting tanks. Threshold behaviour is displayed when tank storage capacity is designed to match both the average collected volume and the average reuse volume. The low demand limit cannot be achieved under climate and operating conditions characterized by a disproportion between harvesting and demand volume.

  11. IMPACT OF IMPROVED FAT-MEAT PRODUCTS CONSUMPTION ON ANTHROPOMETRIC MARKERS AND NUTRIENT INTAKES OF MALE VOLUNTEERS AT INCREASED CARDIOVASCULAR RISK.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Celada, Paloma; Delgado-Pando, Gonzalo; Olmedilla-Alonso, Begoña; Jiménez-Colmenero, Francisco; Ruperto, Mar; Sánchez-Muniz, Francisco J

    2015-08-01

    meat products have been recognized to be adequate matrix for incorporating functional ingredients. The impact of meat products formulated by replacing animal fat with a combination of olive, linseed and fish oils on energy and nutrient intakes and anthropometric measurements were tested in a non-randomized-controlled- sequential study. eighteen male volunteers at high-CVD risk consumed weekly 200 g frankfurters and 250 g pâtés during three 4-wk periods (reduced fat (RF); n3-enriched- RF (n-3RF), and normal fat (NF)), separated by 4-wk washout. Energy and nutrient intakes, healthy eating index (HEI), and anthropometric changes were evaluated. body fat mass rate-of-change and the waist/ hip ratio significantly differs (p = 0.018 and p = 0.031, respectively) between periods, decreasing body fat mass, waist circumference and waist/hip ratio in RF period and increasing body fat mass in NF one (all p = 0.05). Significant inverse correlations were observed between rate- of-change of BMI and ideal body weight with dietary carbohydrate/SFA ratio in n-3RF period (p = 0.003 and p = 0.006, respectively). Initial diets presented low HEIs (means Product consumption improved dietary Zn, Ca, retinol equivalent, folate and vitamin B12 contents in all periods, and ameliorated n-3 PUFA contents and n-6/n-3 PUFA ratio over the n-3RF period. improved-fat meat products appear as functional foods for overweight/obeses since their consumption improved selected body-fat markers, without affecting HEI, macronutrient and energy but their n-3 PUFA and n6/n3 ratio intakes. Copyright AULA MEDICA EDICIONES 2014. Published by AULA MEDICA. All rights reserved.

  12. Association between a dietary quality index based on the food standard agency nutrient profiling system and cardiovascular disease risk among French adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adriouch, Solia; Julia, Chantal; Kesse-Guyot, Emmanuelle; Ducrot, Pauline; Péneau, Sandrine; Méjean, Caroline; Assmann, Karen E; Deschasaux, Mélanie; Hercberg, Serge; Touvier, Mathilde; Fezeu, Léopold K

    2017-05-01

    In France, the implementation of a front-of-pack (FOP) nutrition label-the 5-Colour Nutrition Label (5-CNL) is currently under consideration as a strategic tool to allow consumers making healthier food choices. This FOP label is based on the British Food Standards Agency Nutrient Profiling System (FSA-NPS), reflecting the overall nutritional quality of foods. At the individual level, an energy-weighted mean of all FSA-NPS scores of foods usually consumed has been elaborated (FSA-NPS DI). Our objective was to investigate the prospective association between the FSA-NPS DI and cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. 75,801 participants to the NutriNet-Santé cohort, who completed at least three 24h dietary records during the first 2y of the follow-up, were followed between 2009 and 2016. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were used to characterize the associations between FSA-NPS DI and the incidence of CVDs. 509 major cardiovascular events were diagnosed (262 coronary heart diseases and 247 strokes). A higher FSA-NPS DI, characterizing lower dietary quality, was associated with increased CVD risk (HR for a 1-point increment =1.08 (1.03-1.13); HR Q4vs.Q1 =1.40 (1.06-1.84), P trend Q4-Q1 =0.01). This association tended to be stronger in overweight subjects (HR for a 1-point increment =1.12 (1.04-1.19); P interaction =0.003). These results suggest that lower dietary quality, as reflected by a higher FSA-NPS DI, may be associated with a significant increase in cardiovascular risk, especially in at-risk individuals (overweight population). They support the public health relevance of developing a front-of-pack nutrition label based on this score. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  13. Nutrient evaluation and elemental analysis of four medicinal plants of Khyber Pakhtoon Khwa, Pakistan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khan, F.U.; Ullah, R.; Muhammad, Z.; Rehman, N.U.; Zohaib, M.; Shinwari, Z.K.

    2011-01-01

    The study was carried out to assess the nutritional value and mineral contents of four medicinal plants viz., Aerva javanica Burm.f, Calotropis procera Ait. f, Datura alba Nees, and Nepeta suavis Stapf., which are traditionally used as medicine in the Northwest Pakistan. Proximate analysis of plant sample determines that protein (21.353%) and ash (18.803%) was highest in Datura alba, carbohydrate (70.123 %) in Aerva javanica, energy (398.496 Kcal/100g), fats (12.595%) and fibre (40.150%) was highest in Nepeta suavis, while highest moisture (11.255%) was reported in Calotropis procera. In comparative assessment of the various species, the results showed that Nepeta suavis is the most significant species having higher concentrations of fat, fibre and energy values compared to the other species. The essential elements such as Fe, Cd, Cu, Mn, Pb, Cr, Mg and Na have been analysed using Atomic Absorption Spectrometric method from the medicinal plants in variable range. (author)

  14. Analysis of the presence of nutrient claims on labels of ultra-processed foods directed at children and of the perception of kids on such claims

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Natália Durigon ZUCCHI

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT Objective: To characterize the presence of nutrient claims on the front-of-pack labels of ultra-processed foods directed at children and gain insight on children' views about the presence of marketing strategies and nutrient claims on labels of ultra-processed foods. Methods: Analysis of images (front panel, nutrition facts table, and ingredients list of labels from 535 packaged foods with marketing strategies directed at children obtained in an audit-type survey conducted at a Brazilian large supermarket store. Food products with ultra-processed characteristics were identified, and the nutrient claims were quantified and described. Focus groups were conducted with children aged 8-10 years. Results: A total of 472 (88.0% of the 535 packaged foods directed at children were classified as ultra-processed. Of these, 220 (46.6% had one or more nutrient claims on their front-of-pack label (n=321, most (n=236, 73.5% claiming the presence/increased quantities of vitamins and minerals. The most common 'free/reduced' content claim regarded trans fat content (n=48. The focus groups allowed the identification of a noticeable influence of nutrition claims on children, who considered the emphasis important but were confused by the meaning and focus of such claims. Conclusion: Highlighted nutrient claims on the packages of ultra-processed foods were common and seemed to influence the children's perception of the products' quality as a whole. The results indicate the need of thoroughly reviewing the legislation on nutrient claims on the packages of ultra-processed foods.

  15. Probabilistic methods in fire-risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brandyberry, M.D.

    1989-01-01

    The first part of this work outlines a method for assessing the frequency of ignition of a consumer product in a building and shows how the method would be used in an example scenario utilizing upholstered furniture as the product and radiant auxiliary heating devices (electric heaters, wood stoves) as the ignition source. Deterministic thermal models of the heat-transport processes are coupled with parameter uncertainty analysis of the models and with a probabilistic analysis of the events involved in a typical scenario. This leads to a distribution for the frequency of ignition for the product. In second part, fire-risk analysis as currently used in nuclear plants is outlines along with a discussion of the relevant uncertainties. The use of the computer code COMPBRN is discussed for use in the fire-growth analysis along with the use of response-surface methodology to quantify uncertainties in the code's use. Generalized response surfaces are developed for temperature versus time for a cable tray, as well as a surface for the hot gas layer temperature and depth for a room of arbitrary geometry within a typical nuclear power plant compartment. These surfaces are then used to simulate the cable tray damage time in a compartment fire experiment

  16. Risk as analysis and risk as feelings: some thoughts about affect, reason, risk, and rationality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slovic, Paul; Finucane, Melissa L; Peters, Ellen; MacGregor, Donald G

    2004-04-01

    Modern theories in cognitive psychology and neuroscience indicate that there are two fundamental ways in which human beings comprehend risk. The "analytic system" uses algorithms and normative rules, such as probability calculus, formal logic, and risk assessment. It is relatively slow, effortful, and requires conscious control. The "experiential system" is intuitive, fast, mostly automatic, and not very accessible to conscious awareness. The experiential system enabled human beings to survive during their long period of evolution and remains today the most natural and most common way to respond to risk. It relies on images and associations, linked by experience to emotion and affect (a feeling that something is good or bad). This system represents risk as a feeling that tells us whether it is safe to walk down this dark street or drink this strange-smelling water. Proponents of formal risk analysis tend to view affective responses to risk as irrational. Current wisdom disputes this view. The rational and the experiential systems operate in parallel and each seems to depend on the other for guidance. Studies have demonstrated that analytic reasoning cannot be effective unless it is guided by emotion and affect. Rational decision making requires proper integration of both modes of thought. Both systems have their advantages, biases, and limitations. Now that we are beginning to understand the complex interplay between emotion and reason that is essential to rational behavior, the challenge before us is to think creatively about what this means for managing risk. On the one hand, how do we apply reason to temper the strong emotions engendered by some risk events? On the other hand, how do we infuse needed "doses of feeling" into circumstances where lack of experience may otherwise leave us too "coldly rational"? This article addresses these important questions.

  17. Are self-reported unhealthy food choices associated with an increased risk of breast cancer? Prospective cohort study using the British Food Standards Agency nutrient profiling system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deschasaux, Mélanie; Julia, Chantal; Kesse-Guyot, Emmanuelle; Lécuyer, Lucie; Adriouch, Solia; Méjean, Caroline; Ducrot, Pauline; Péneau, Sandrine; Latino-Martel, Paule; Fezeu, Léopold K; Fassier, Philippine; Hercberg, Serge; Touvier, Mathilde

    2017-06-08

    French authorities are considering the implementation of a simplified nutrition labelling system on food products to help consumers make healthier food choices. One of the most documented candidates (Five-Colour Nutrition Label/Nutri-score) is based on the British Food Standards Agency Nutrient Profiling System (FSA-NPS), a score calculated for each food/beverage using the 100 g amount of energy, sugar, saturated fatty acid, sodium, fibres, proteins, and fruits and vegetables. To assess its potential public health relevance, studies were conducted on the association between the nutritional quality of the diet, measured at the individual level by an energy-weighted mean of all FSA-NPS scores of foods usually consumed (FSA-NPS dietary index (FSA-NPS DI)), and the risk of chronic diseases. The present study aimed at investigating the relationship between the FSA-NPS DI and breast cancer risk. Prospective study. Population based, NutriNet-Santé cohort, France. 46 864 women aged ≥35 years who completed ≥3 24-hour dietary records during their first 2 year of follow-up. Associations between FSA-NPS DI and breast cancer risk (555 incident breast cancers diagnosed between 2009 and 2015) were characterised by multivariable-adjusted Cox proportional hazard models. A higher FSA-NPS DI (lower nutritional quality of the diet) was associated with an increased breast cancer risk (HR 1-point increment =1.06 (1.02-1.11), p=0.005; HR Q5vs.Q1 =1.52 (1.11-2.08), p trend=0.002). Similar trends were observed in premenopausal and postmenopausal women (HR 1-point increment =1.09 (1.01-1.18) and 1.05 (1.00-1.11), respectively).This study was based on an observational cohort using self-reported dietary data, thus residual confounding cannot be entirely ruled out. Finally, this holistic approach does not allow investigating which factors in the diet most specifically influence breast cancer risk. These results suggested that unhealthy food choices, as characterised by the FSA-NPS, may

  18. Overcoming barriers to integrating economic analysis into risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoffmann, Sandra

    2011-09-01

    Regulatory risk analysis is designed to provide decisionmakers with a clearer understanding of how policies are likely to affect risk. The systems that produce risk are biological, physical, and social and economic. As a result, risk analysis is an inherently interdisciplinary task. Yet in practice, risk analysis has been interdisciplinary in only limited ways. Risk analysis could provide more accurate assessments of risk if there were better integration of economics and other social sciences into risk assessment itself. This essay examines how discussions about risk analysis policy have influenced the roles of various disciplines in risk analysis. It explores ways in which integrated bio/physical-economic modeling could contribute to more accurate assessments of risk. It reviews examples of the kind of integrated economics-bio/physical modeling that could be used to enhance risk assessment. The essay ends with a discussion of institutional barriers to greater integration of economic modeling into risk assessment and provides suggestions on how these might be overcome. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

  19. Economic analysis and management of climatic risks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hourcade, J.C. (Centre International de Recherche sur l' Environnement et le Developpement, 92 - Montrouge (France))

    1994-01-01

    This paper aims at framing the collective decision problem in the face of climate change. It shows why it would be irrelevant to handle it in the form of a classical decision under uncertainty framework where a cost-benefit analysis is carried out including probability distribution on damages and risk aversion coefficients. A sequential approach to policy making is then proposed as an alternative in order to account for the inertia of socio-economic dynamics and the value of information. A simple model illustrates the gap between these two approaches; it shows the importance of combining the investments on climatic research, innovation policies and so-called 'no regret' short term decisions. It shows the fact that, even if they can be considered as quantitatively moderate, these potentials have a critical impact on long term viability of development; they embed a very high information value, lengthening the learning time vis-a-vis potentially major but controversial risks. (author). 21 refs., 3 figs.

  20. Risk oriented analysis of the SNR-300

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koeberlein, K.

    1982-01-01

    The Fact Finding Committee on 'Future Nuclear Power Policy' established by the 8th German Federal Parliament in its report of June 1980 among other items published the recommendation to commission a 'risk oriented analysis' of the SNR-300 in order to enable a pragmatic comparison to be made of the safety of the German prototype fast breeder reactor and a modern light water reactor (a Biblis B PWR). The Federal Minister for Research and Technology in August 1981 officially commissioned the Gesellschaft fuer Reaktorsicherheit (GRS) to conduct the study. Following a recommendation by the Fact Finding Committee, additional studies were performed also by a group of opponents of the breeder reactor. On the instigation of the group of opponents the delivery date of the study was altered several times and finally set at April 30, 1982. GRS submitted its report by this deadline. However, a joint report by the two groups could not be compiled, as had been requested by the client, because the contributions of the opponents were not made available until mid-May 1982 and then only as an 'interim report'. In summary, the GRS study indicates that the frequency and severity of major accidents is lower for the SNR-300 at the Kalkar site than for a PWR as covered in the German Nuclear Power Plant Risk Study. (orig.) [de

  1. Development of probabilistic risk analysis library

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Soga, Shota; Kirimoto, Yukihiro; Kanda, Kenichi

    2015-01-01

    We developed a library that is designed to perform level 1 Probabilistic Risk Analysis using Binary Decision Diagram (BDD). In particular, our goal is to develop a library that will allow Japanese electric utilities to take the advantages of BDD that can solve Event Tree (ET) and Fault Tree (FT) models analytically. Using BDD, the library supports negation in FT which allows more flexible modeling of ET/FT. The library is written by C++ within an object-oriented framework using open source software. The library itself is a header-only library so that Japanese electric utilities can take advantages of its transparency to speed up development and to build their own software for their specific needs. In this report, the basic capabilities of the library is briefly described. In addition, several applications of the library are demonstrated including validation of MCS evaluation of PRA model and evaluation of corrective and preventive maintenance considering common cause failure. (author)

  2. Analysis of uncertainty in modeling perceived risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Melnyk, R.; Sandquist, G.M.

    2005-01-01

    Expanding on a mathematical model developed for quantifying and assessing perceived risks, the distribution functions, variances, and uncertainties associated with estimating the model parameters are quantified. The analytical model permits the identification and assignment of any number of quantifiable risk perception factors that can be incorporated within standard risk methodology. Those risk perception factors associated with major technical issues are modeled using lognormal probability density functions to span the potentially large uncertainty variations associated with these risk perceptions. The model quantifies the logic of public risk perception and provides an effective means for measuring and responding to perceived risks. (authors)

  3. Risk Analysis for Performance Improvement in a Romanian Pharmaceutical Company

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dana Corina Deselnicu

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents risk management analysis carried out to investigate the operations of a Romanian company dealing with the distribution of pharmaceutical products. The main risks challenging the company were identified, described and classified, providing a scientific base for further analysis. Then, the identified inherent risks were evaluated using tools as the risk index method and the risk matrix in order to emphasize their tolerance level. According to the results of the evaluation, risk mitigation strategies and measures were advanced for the management of the analysed risks. Relevant conclusions were drawn from the experience.

  4. Análise sensorial, teores de nitrato e de nutrientes de alface cultivada em hidroponia sob águas salinas Sensory analysis, nitrate and nutrient concentration of lettuce grown in hydroponics under saline water

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dalva Paulus

    2012-03-01

    nutrients and nitrate and perform sensory analysis of lettuce in hydroponic system under saline water. The experiment was carried out in a greenhouse from December, 2007 to January, 2008, in Piracicaba. The experimental design was randomized blocks and factorial scheme (five salinity levels obtained with the addition of NaCl that resulted in different electrical conductivities of the water (dS m-1: 0.42, 1.53, 3.52, 5.55, 7.43 and two cultivas of lettuce (Veronica and Pira Roxa. The evaluations were: sensory analysis applying hedonic scale and through this, which sample presented the best and the least taste, the purchase intent and consumption, nitrate, absorption of nutrients by leaves and determination of nutrients in the nutrient solution. For the attribute of cultivars, Veronica received the highest marks in salt level 1.53 and 5.55 dS m-1. For cultivar Pira Roxa was awarded the best grade for lettuce grown in non-saline water. For other attributes there was no significant difference in levels of salinity. To purchase intention, it was found that cv. Verônica and Pira Roxa had good market acceptance. The lowest levels of nitrate (1960 mg kg-1 and 2620 mg kg-1 fresh weight of Verônica and Pira Roxa, respectively, were related to the electrical conductivity of 0.42 dS m-1, increasing water salinity to 7.43 dS m-1, the leaf content of nitrate increased to 2500 mg kg-1 and 3420 mg kg-1 for the cultivars Verônica and Pira Roxa. As the time of exposure to salt in a hydroponic system was short, around 25 days, there were no symptoms of nutrient deficiency and whole lettuce was classified as suitable for human consumption.

  5. ANALYSIS AND MANAGEMENT RISK IN INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS

    OpenAIRE

    Lăpăduşi Mihaela Loredana,; Căruntu Constantin

    2009-01-01

    The risk is one of the most controversial issues for all persons involved both in domestic and international world economic affairs. The need to analyze, understand and effectively manage risk is growing, the ultimate aim being to obtain a higher degree of successThe risk means exposure to an uncertain future, the opportunity to face danger or suffering a loss ( "Risk - possibility of loss or injury", Webster's, 1995) or the chance that things go wrong ( "Risk is the change that something wil...

  6. Insurability of Cyber Risk: An Empirical Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Biener, Christian; Eling, Martin; Wirfs, Jan Hendrik

    2015-01-01

    This paper discusses the adequacy of insurance for managing cyber risk. To this end, we extract 994 cases of cyber losses from an operational risk database and analyse their statistical properties. Based on the empirical results and recent literature, we investigate the insurability of cyber risk by systematically reviewing the set of criteria introduced by Berliner (1982). Our findings emphasise the distinct characteristics of cyber risks compared with other operational risks and bring to li...

  7. HANFORD SAFETY ANALYSIS & RISK ASSESSMENT HANDBOOK (SARAH)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    EVANS, C B

    2004-12-21

    The purpose of the Hanford Safety Analysis and Risk Assessment Handbook (SARAH) is to support the development of safety basis documentation for Hazard Category 2 and 3 (HC-2 and 3) U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) nuclear facilities to meet the requirements of 10 CFR 830, ''Nuclear Safety Management''. Subpart B, ''Safety Basis Requirements.'' Consistent with DOE-STD-3009-94, Change Notice 2, ''Preparation Guide for U.S. Department of Energy Nonreactor Nuclear Facility Documented Safety Analyses'' (STD-3009), and DOE-STD-3011-2002, ''Guidance for Preparation of Basis for Interim Operation (BIO) Documents'' (STD-3011), the Hanford SARAH describes methodology for performing a safety analysis leading to development of a Documented Safety Analysis (DSA) and derivation of Technical Safety Requirements (TSR), and provides the information necessary to ensure a consistently rigorous approach that meets DOE expectations. The DSA and TSR documents, together with the DOE-issued Safety Evaluation Report (SER), are the basic components of facility safety basis documentation. For HC-2 or 3 nuclear facilities in long-term surveillance and maintenance (S&M), for decommissioning activities, where source term has been eliminated to the point that only low-level, residual fixed contamination is present, or for environmental remediation activities outside of a facility structure, DOE-STD-1120-98, ''Integration of Environment, Safety, and Health into Facility Disposition Activities'' (STD-1120), may serve as the basis for the DSA. HC-2 and 3 environmental remediation sites also are subject to the hazard analysis methodologies of this standard.

  8. 49 CFR 260.17 - Credit risk premium analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 4 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Credit risk premium analysis. 260.17 Section 260... Financial Assistance § 260.17 Credit risk premium analysis. (a) When Federal appropriations are not available to cover the total subsidy cost, the Administrator will determine the Credit Risk Premium...

  9. Integration of risk analysis, land use planning, and cost analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rajen, G.; Sanchez, G.

    1994-01-01

    The Department of Energy (DOE) and the Pueblo of San Ildefonso (Pueblo), which is a sovereign Indian tribe, have often been involved in adversarial situations regarding the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). The Pueblo shares a common boundary with the LANL. This paper describes an on-going project that could alter the DOE and the Pueblo's relationship to one of cooperation; and unite the DOE and the Pueblo in a Pollution Prevention/Waste Minimization, and Integrated Risk Analysis and Land Use Planning effort

  10. Risk uncertainty analysis methods for NUREG-1150

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Benjamin, A.S.; Boyd, G.J.

    1987-01-01

    Evaluation and display of risk uncertainties for NUREG-1150 constitute a principal focus of the Severe Accident Risk Rebaselining/Risk Reduction Program (SARRP). Some of the principal objectives of the uncertainty evaluation are: (1) to provide a quantitative estimate that reflects, for those areas considered, a credible and realistic range of uncertainty in risk; (2) to rank the various sources of uncertainty with respect to their importance for various measures of risk; and (3) to characterize the state of understanding of each aspect of the risk assessment for which major uncertainties exist. This paper describes the methods developed to fulfill these objectives

  11. Conceptual risk assessment framework for global change risk analysis SRP

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Elphinstone, CD

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available on two of the most important underlying factors supporting the ecosystem: productivity and hypoxia afiecting harmful algae blooms (HABs) and the rock lobsters. The risk regimes are a function of two time scales | a ‘high’ wind stress in early summer... is a condition which can lead to various negative impacts depending on the particular marine life, for instance rock lobsters stranding. The exact deflnitions of the two seasonal occurrences resulting in the risk event, ‘high’ wind stress in ‘early...

  12. Multiple Sclerosis Increases Fracture Risk: A Meta-Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guixian Dong

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Purpose. The association between multiple sclerosis (MS and fracture risk has been reported, but results of previous studies remain controversial and ambiguous. To assess the association between MS and fracture risk, a meta-analysis was performed. Method. Based on comprehensive searches of the PubMed, Embase, and Web of Science, we identified outcome data from all articles estimating the association between MS and fracture risk. The pooled risk ratios (RRs with 95% confidence intervals (CIs were calculated. Results. A significant association between MS and fracture risk was found. This result remained statistically significant when the adjusted RRs were combined. Subgroup analysis stratified by the site of fracture suggested significant associations between MS and tibia fracture risk, femur fracture risk, hip fracture risk, pelvis fracture risk, vertebrae fracture risk, and humerus fracture risk. In the subgroup analysis by gender, female MS patients had increased fracture risk. When stratified by history of drug use, use of antidepressants, hypnotics/anxiolytics, anticonvulsants, and glucocorticoids increased the risk of fracture risk in MS patients. Conclusions. This meta-analysis demonstrated that MS was significantly associated with fracture risk.

  13. Technical Overview of Ecological Risk Assessment - Analysis Phase: Exposure Characterization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Exposure Characterization is the second major component of the analysis phase of a risk assessment. For a pesticide risk assessment, the exposure characterization describes the potential or actual contact of a pesticide with a plant, animal, or media.

  14. Structural reliability analysis applied to pipeline risk analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gardiner, M. [GL Industrial Services, Loughborough (United Kingdom); Mendes, Renato F.; Donato, Guilherme V.P. [PETROBRAS S.A., Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

    2009-07-01

    Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) of pipelines requires two main components to be provided. These are models of the consequences that follow from some loss of containment incident, and models for the likelihood of such incidents occurring. This paper describes how PETROBRAS have used Structural Reliability Analysis for the second of these, to provide pipeline- and location-specific predictions of failure frequency for a number of pipeline assets. This paper presents an approach to estimating failure rates for liquid and gas pipelines, using Structural Reliability Analysis (SRA) to analyze the credible basic mechanisms of failure such as corrosion and mechanical damage. SRA is a probabilistic limit state method: for a given failure mechanism it quantifies the uncertainty in parameters to mathematical models of the load-resistance state of a structure and then evaluates the probability of load exceeding resistance. SRA can be used to benefit the pipeline risk management process by optimizing in-line inspection schedules, and as part of the design process for new construction in pipeline rights of way that already contain multiple lines. A case study is presented to show how the SRA approach has recently been used on PETROBRAS pipelines and the benefits obtained from it. (author)

  15. Comparative analysis of food webs based on flow networks: effects of nutrient supply on structure and function of coastal plankton communities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olsen, Yngvar; Reinertsen, Helge; Vadstein, Olav; Andersen, Tom; Gismervik, Ingrid; Duarte, Carlos; Agusti, Susana; Stibor, Herwig; Sommer, Ulrich; Lignell, Risto; Tamminen, Timo; Lancelot, Christiane; Rousseau, Veronique; Hoell, Espen; Sanderud, Knut Arvid

    2001-12-01

    Atlantic lagoon evolved gradually from the natural oligotrophic situation towards the more eutrophicated North Sea during fertilisation. The responses observed on seasonal and long-term scale (>10 years) may therefore be equal. The differences between short-term (weeks) and intermediate-term (seasonal) responses is most likely a result of the different time scales of perturbation and observation and the variable exchange rates with surrounding waters (water dilution rate). The analysis of pelagic flow networks provided a framework of diagnostic criteria for state and quality assessment of coastal waters. The nutrient loading rates related better to estimates of biotic fluxes than to concentrations of biotic compartments and total nutrients. On the contrary, the concentration of biotic compartments, or the biomasses, related better to total nutrient concentrations. Primary production, mesozooplankton grazing and growth, fraction of primary production consumed by grazers, bacterial production relative to primary production, cycling indices, and path lengths were all well related to nutrient loading rate. Autotrophic biomass, ratio of autotrophic to heterotrophic biomass, and fraction of pico-cyanobacteria of total autotrophic biomass were all related to total nutrients. Some of these variables, which responded equally in all systems, have the potential of becoming unified response functions in a management model for European coastal waters. COMWEB has provided further insight into the mechanisms behind coastal eutrophication. A main achievement is the conceptual framework for unified response functions, important components of management models for nutrient emission to coastal waters.

  16. A Roadmap of Risk Diagnostic Methods: Developing an Integrated View of Risk Identification and Analysis Techniques

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Williams, Ray; Ambrose, Kate; Bentrem, Laura

    2004-01-01

    ...), which is envisioned to be a comprehensive reference tool for risk identification and analysis (RI AND A) techniques. Program Managers (PMs) responsible for developing or acquiring software-intensive systems typically identify risks in different ways...

  17. Chemical risk evaluation, importance of the risk analysis framework uses: Latin America development restrictions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carrillo, M.

    2013-01-01

    The power point presentation is about reach and results of the risk analysis in Venezuela, chemical dangers in food, human damage, injuries , technologies news in fodd development, toxicity, microbiological risk, technical recommendations

  18. Putting problem formulation at the forefront of GMO risk analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tepfer, Mark; Racovita, Monica; Craig, Wendy

    2013-01-01

    When applying risk assessment and the broader process of risk analysis to decisions regarding the dissemination of genetically modified organisms (GMOs), the process has a tendency to become remarkably complex. Further, as greater numbers of countries consider authorising the large-scale dissemination of GMOs, and as GMOs with more complex traits reach late stages of development, there has been increasing concern about the burden posed by the complexity of risk analysis. We present here an improved approach for GMO risk analysis that gives a central role to problem formulation. Further, the risk analysis strategy has been clarified and simplified in order to make rigorously scientific risk assessment and risk analysis more broadly accessible to diverse stakeholder groups.

  19. Statistical models for competing risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sather, H.N.

    1976-08-01

    Research results on three new models for potential applications in competing risks problems. One section covers the basic statistical relationships underlying the subsequent competing risks model development. Another discusses the problem of comparing cause-specific risk structure by competing risks theory in two homogeneous populations, P1 and P2. Weibull models which allow more generality than the Berkson and Elveback models are studied for the effect of time on the hazard function. The use of concomitant information for modeling single-risk survival is extended to the multiple failure mode domain of competing risks. The model used to illustrate the use of this methodology is a life table model which has constant hazards within pre-designated intervals of the time scale. Two parametric models for bivariate dependent competing risks, which provide interesting alternatives, are proposed and examined

  20. Computational Aspects of Dam Risk Analysis: Findings and Challenges

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ignacio Escuder-Bueno

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available In recent years, risk analysis techniques have proved to be a useful tool to inform dam safety management. This paper summarizes the outcomes of three themes related to dam risk analysis discussed in the Benchmark Workshops organized by the International Commission on Large Dams Technical Committee on “Computational Aspects of Analysis and Design of Dams.” In the 2011 Benchmark Workshop, estimation of the probability of failure of a gravity dam for the sliding failure mode was discussed. Next, in 2013, the discussion focused on the computational challenges of the estimation of consequences in dam risk analysis. Finally, in 2015, the probability of sliding and overtopping in an embankment was analyzed. These Benchmark Workshops have allowed a complete review of numerical aspects for dam risk analysis, showing that risk analysis methods are a very useful tool to analyze the risk of dam systems, including downstream consequence assessments and the uncertainty of structural models.

  1. Seismic risk analysis in the German risk study phase B

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hasser, D.; Liemersdorf, J.

    1989-01-01

    The paper discusses some aspects of the seismic risk part of the German risk study for nuclear power plants, phase B. First simplified analyses in phase A of the study allowed a rough classification of structures and systems of the PWR reference plant according to their seismic risk contribution. These studies were extended in phase B using improved models for the dynamic analyses of buildings, structures and components as well as for the probabilistic analyses of seismic loading, failure probabilities and event trees. The methodology of deriving probabilistic seismic load descriptions is explained and compared with the methods in phase A of the study and in other studies. Some details of the linear and nonlinear dynamic analyses of structures are reported, in order to demonstrate the influence of different assumptions for material behavior and failure criteria. The probabilistic structural and event tree analyses are discussed with respect to the distribution assumptions, acceptable simplifications, special results for the PWR reference plant and, finally, the influence of model uncertainties

  2. Automating risk analysis of software design models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frydman, Maxime; Ruiz, Guifré; Heymann, Elisa; César, Eduardo; Miller, Barton P

    2014-01-01

    The growth of the internet and networked systems has exposed software to an increased amount of security threats. One of the responses from software developers to these threats is the introduction of security activities in the software development lifecycle. This paper describes an approach to reduce the need for costly human expertise to perform risk analysis in software, which is common in secure development methodologies, by automating threat modeling. Reducing the dependency on security experts aims at reducing the cost of secure development by allowing non-security-aware developers to apply secure development with little to no additional cost, making secure development more accessible. To automate threat modeling two data structures are introduced, identification trees and mitigation trees, to identify threats in software designs and advise mitigation techniques, while taking into account specification requirements and cost concerns. These are the components of our model for automated threat modeling, AutSEC. We validated AutSEC by implementing it in a tool based on data flow diagrams, from the Microsoft security development methodology, and applying it to VOMS, a grid middleware component, to evaluate our model's performance.

  3. Cost-effectiveness analysis of surface flow constructed wetlands (SFCW) for nutrient reduction in drainage discharge from agricultural fields in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gachango, Florence Gathoni; Pedersen, Søren Marcus; Kjærgaard, Charlotte

    2015-01-01

    Constructed wetlands have been proposed as cost-effective and more targeted technologies in the reduction of nitrogen and phosphorous water pollution in drainage losses from agricultural fields in Denmark. Using two pig farms and one dairy farm situated in a pumped lowland catchment as case studies......, this paper explores the feasibility of implementing surface flow constructed wetlands (SFCW) based on their cost effectiveness. Sensitivity analysis is conducted by varying the cost elements of the wetlands in order to establish the most cost-effective scenario and a comparison with the existing nutrients...... reduction measures carried out. The analyses show that the cost effectiveness of the SFCW is higher in the drainage catchments with higher nutrient loads. The range of the cost effectiveness ratio on nitrogen reduction differs distinctively with that of catch crop measure. The study concludes that SFCW...

  4. Evaluating the risks of clinical research: direct comparative analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rid, Annette; Abdoler, Emily; Roberson-Nay, Roxann; Pine, Daniel S; Wendler, David

    2014-09-01

    Many guidelines and regulations allow children and adolescents to be enrolled in research without the prospect of clinical benefit when it poses minimal risk. However, few systematic methods exist to determine when research risks are minimal. This situation has led to significant variation in minimal risk judgments, raising concern that some children are not being adequately protected. To address this concern, we describe a new method for implementing the widely endorsed "risks of daily life" standard for minimal risk. This standard defines research risks as minimal when they do not exceed the risks posed by daily life activities or routine examinations. This study employed a conceptual and normative analysis, and use of an illustrative example. Different risks are composed of the same basic elements: Type, likelihood, and magnitude of harm. Hence, one can compare the risks of research and the risks of daily life by comparing the respective basic elements with each other. We use this insight to develop a systematic method, direct comparative analysis, for implementing the "risks of daily life" standard for minimal risk. The method offers a way of evaluating research procedures that pose the same types of risk as daily life activities, such as the risk of experiencing anxiety, stress, or other psychological harm. We thus illustrate how direct comparative analysis can be applied in practice by using it to evaluate whether the anxiety induced by a respiratory CO2 challenge poses minimal or greater than minimal risks in children and adolescents. Direct comparative analysis is a systematic method for applying the "risks of daily life" standard for minimal risk to research procedures that pose the same types of risk as daily life activities. It thereby offers a method to protect children and adolescents in research, while ensuring that important studies are not blocked because of unwarranted concerns about research risks.

  5. RISK ANALYSIS IN INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY AND COMMUNICATION OUTSOURCING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edmir Parada Vasques Prado

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available This research aims at evaluating the risk analysis process in Information Technology and Communication (ICT outsourcing conducted by organizations of the private sector. The research is characterized by being a descriptive, quantitative and transversal type study, which was used the survey method. Data were collected through questionnaire, the sample is not random and we used a convenience sampling process. The research made contributions to understanding the risk analysis process in ICT services outsourcing, and identified statistically significant relationships between risk analysis, organization's size and its industry, and between risk analysis and diversity of outsourced services

  6. Risk-based decision analysis for groundwater operable units

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chiaramonte, G.R.

    1995-01-01

    This document proposes a streamlined approach and methodology for performing risk assessment in support of interim remedial measure (IRM) decisions involving the remediation of contaminated groundwater on the Hanford Site. This methodology, referred to as ''risk-based decision analysis,'' also supports the specification of target cleanup volumes and provides a basis for design and operation of the groundwater remedies. The risk-based decision analysis can be completed within a short time frame and concisely documented. The risk-based decision analysis is more versatile than the qualitative risk assessment (QRA), because it not only supports the need for IRMs, but also provides criteria for defining the success of the IRMs and provides the risk-basis for decisions on final remedies. For these reasons, it is proposed that, for groundwater operable units, the risk-based decision analysis should replace the more elaborate, costly, and time-consuming QRA

  7. A comparative analysis of risk and quality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lynette, Jennifer Elyse

    2017-01-01

    Within the field of emergency management and fire response, risk and quality are conceptualized to some degree in every response effort. Quality is viewed as a relatively new concept within the field of emergency management and fire response. Whereas, within this same field the concept of risk is....... This understanding can serve to facilitate more informed and effective decision making that incorporates both risk and quality before, during, and after emergency events....... independently, decision making and judgement processes have the potential to be positively impacted by furthering research and developing a deeper understanding of these constructs. By understanding risk management principles and combining that with a quality systems approach, decision making can be improved......Within the field of emergency management and fire response, risk and quality are conceptualized to some degree in every response effort. Quality is viewed as a relatively new concept within the field of emergency management and fire response. Whereas, within this same field the concept of risk...

  8. Nutrient cycling strategies.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Breemen, van N.

    1995-01-01

    This paper briefly reviews pathways by which plants can influence the nutrient cycle, and thereby the nutrient supply of themselves and of their competitors. Higher or lower internal nutrient use efficiency positively feeds back into the nutrient cycle, and helps to increase or decrease soil

  9. Risk analysis in transport and logistics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ene Andreea Bianca

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Globalization and production concentration have led to more efficient supply chain networks, which has led to the emergence of different types of risks. Although most companies have implemented special risk management programs, there may be events that can not be controlled by businesses, and unwanted consequences are not delayed.

  10. Applications of probabilistic risk analysis in nuclear criticality safety design

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chang, J.K.

    1992-01-01

    Many documents have been prepared that try to define the scope of the criticality analysis and that suggest adding probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) to the deterministic safety analysis. The report of the US Department of Energy (DOE) AL 5481.1B suggested that an accident is credible if the occurrence probability is >1 x 10 -6 /yr. The draft DOE 5480 safety analysis report suggested that safety analyses should include the application of methods such as deterministic safety analysis, risk assessment, reliability engineering, common-cause failure analysis, human reliability analysis, and human factor safety analysis techniques. The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) report NRC SG830.110 suggested that major safety analysis methods should include but not be limited to risk assessment, reliability engineering, and human factor safety analysis. All of these suggestions have recommended including PRA in the traditional criticality analysis

  11. A Healthy Dietary Pattern Reduces Lung Cancer Risk: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yanlai Sun

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Background: Diet and nutrients play an important role in cancer development and progress; a healthy dietary pattern has been found to be associated with several types of cancer. However, the association between a healthy eating pattern and lung cancer risk is still unclear. Objective: Therefore, we conducted a systematic review with meta-analysis to evaluate whether a healthy eating pattern might reduce lung cancer risk. Methods: We identified relevant studies from the PubMed and Embase databases up to October 2015, and the relative risks were extracted and combined by the fixed-effects model when no substantial heterogeneity was observed; otherwise, the random-effects model was employed. Subgroup and publication bias analyses were also performed. Results: Finally, eight observational studies were included in the meta-analysis. The pooled relative risk of lung cancer for the highest vs. lowest category of healthy dietary pattern was 0.81 (95% confidence interval, CI: 0.75–0.86, and no significant heterogeneity was detected. The relative risks (RRs for non-smokers, former smokers and current smokers were 0.89 (95% CI: 0.63–1.27, 0.74 (95% CI: 0.62–0.89 and 0.86 (95% CI: 0.79–0.93, respectively. The results remained stable in subgroup analyses by other confounders and sensitivity analysis. Conclusions: The results of our meta-analysis suggest that a healthy dietary pattern is associated with a lower lung cancer risk, and they provide more beneficial evidence for changing the diet pattern in the general population.

  12. A Healthy Dietary Pattern Reduces Lung Cancer Risk: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Yanlai; Li, Zhenxiang; Li, Jianning; Li, Zengjun; Han, Jianjun

    2016-03-04

    Diet and nutrients play an important role in cancer development and progress; a healthy dietary pattern has been found to be associated with several types of cancer. However, the association between a healthy eating pattern and lung cancer risk is still unclear. Therefore, we conducted a systematic review with meta-analysis to evaluate whether a healthy eating pattern might reduce lung cancer risk. We identified relevant studies from the PubMed and Embase databases up to October 2015, and the relative risks were extracted and combined by the fixed-effects model when no substantial heterogeneity was observed; otherwise, the random-effects model was employed. Subgroup and publication bias analyses were also performed. Finally, eight observational studies were included in the meta-analysis. The pooled relative risk of lung cancer for the highest vs. lowest category of healthy dietary pattern was 0.81 (95% confidence interval, CI: 0.75-0.86), and no significant heterogeneity was detected. The relative risks (RRs) for non-smokers, former smokers and current smokers were 0.89 (95% CI: 0.63-1.27), 0.74 (95% CI: 0.62-0.89) and 0.86 (95% CI: 0.79-0.93), respectively. The results remained stable in subgroup analyses by other confounders and sensitivity analysis. The results of our meta-analysis suggest that a healthy dietary pattern is associated with a lower lung cancer risk, and they provide more beneficial evidence for changing the diet pattern in the general population.

  13. Risk analysis of heat recovery steam generator with semi quantitative risk based inspection API 581

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prayogo, Galang Sandy; Haryadi, Gunawan Dwi; Ismail, Rifky; Kim, Seon Jin

    2016-04-01

    Corrosion is a major problem that most often occurs in the power plant. Heat recovery steam generator (HRSG) is an equipment that has a high risk to the power plant. The impact of corrosion damage causing HRSG power plant stops operating. Furthermore, it could be threaten the safety of employees. The Risk Based Inspection (RBI) guidelines by the American Petroleum Institute (API) 58 has been used to risk analysis in the HRSG 1. By using this methodology, the risk that caused by unexpected failure as a function of the probability and consequence of failure can be estimated. This paper presented a case study relating to the risk analysis in the HRSG, starting with a summary of the basic principles and procedures of risk assessment and applying corrosion RBI for process industries. The risk level of each HRSG equipment were analyzed: HP superheater has a medium high risk (4C), HP evaporator has a medium-high risk (4C), and the HP economizer has a medium risk (3C). The results of the risk assessment using semi-quantitative method of standard API 581 based on the existing equipment at medium risk. In the fact, there is no critical problem in the equipment components. Damage mechanisms were prominent throughout the equipment is thinning mechanism. The evaluation of the risk approach was done with the aim of reducing risk by optimizing the risk assessment activities.

  14. Risk analysis of heat recovery steam generator with semi quantitative risk based inspection API 581

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Prayogo, Galang Sandy; Haryadi, Gunawan Dwi; Ismail, Rifky; Kim, Seon Jin

    2016-01-01

    Corrosion is a major problem that most often occurs in the power plant. Heat recovery steam generator (HRSG) is an equipment that has a high risk to the power plant. The impact of corrosion damage causing HRSG power plant stops operating. Furthermore, it could be threaten the safety of employees. The Risk Based Inspection (RBI) guidelines by the American Petroleum Institute (API) 58 has been used to risk analysis in the HRSG 1. By using this methodology, the risk that caused by unexpected failure as a function of the probability and consequence of failure can be estimated. This paper presented a case study relating to the risk analysis in the HRSG, starting with a summary of the basic principles and procedures of risk assessment and applying corrosion RBI for process industries. The risk level of each HRSG equipment were analyzed: HP superheater has a medium high risk (4C), HP evaporator has a medium-high risk (4C), and the HP economizer has a medium risk (3C). The results of the risk assessment using semi-quantitative method of standard API 581 based on the existing equipment at medium risk. In the fact, there is no critical problem in the equipment components. Damage mechanisms were prominent throughout the equipment is thinning mechanism. The evaluation of the risk approach was done with the aim of reducing risk by optimizing the risk assessment activities.

  15. Risk analysis of heat recovery steam generator with semi quantitative risk based inspection API 581

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Prayogo, Galang Sandy, E-mail: gasandylang@live.com; Haryadi, Gunawan Dwi; Ismail, Rifky [Department of Mechanical Engineering, Diponegoro University, Semarang (Indonesia); Kim, Seon Jin [Department of Mechanical & Automotive Engineering of Pukyong National University (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-04-19

    Corrosion is a major problem that most often occurs in the power plant. Heat recovery steam generator (HRSG) is an equipment that has a high risk to the power plant. The impact of corrosion damage causing HRSG power plant stops operating. Furthermore, it could be threaten the safety of employees. The Risk Based Inspection (RBI) guidelines by the American Petroleum Institute (API) 58 has been used to risk analysis in the HRSG 1. By using this methodology, the risk that caused by unexpected failure as a function of the probability and consequence of failure can be estimated. This paper presented a case study relating to the risk analysis in the HRSG, starting with a summary of the basic principles and procedures of risk assessment and applying corrosion RBI for process industries. The risk level of each HRSG equipment were analyzed: HP superheater has a medium high risk (4C), HP evaporator has a medium-high risk (4C), and the HP economizer has a medium risk (3C). The results of the risk assessment using semi-quantitative method of standard API 581 based on the existing equipment at medium risk. In the fact, there is no critical problem in the equipment components. Damage mechanisms were prominent throughout the equipment is thinning mechanism. The evaluation of the risk approach was done with the aim of reducing risk by optimizing the risk assessment activities.

  16. Essays on Systemic Risk : An analysis from multiple perspectives

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    S. Muns (Sander)

    2016-01-01

    markdownabstractThis thesis is about systemic risk in the financial sector. It considers several aspects of systemic risk. It is a building block for an analysis of the impact of systemic risk on the real economy. It appears that stocks in the financial industry show a strong interdependence

  17. Nutrient imbalance in Norway spruce

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thelin, Gunnar

    2000-11-01

    The studies presented in my thesis indicate that growing Norway spruce in monoculture does not constitute sustainable forest management in a high N and S deposition environment, such as in southern Sweden. The combination of N-induced high growth rates and leaching due to soil acidification causes soil reserves of nutrients to decrease. This will increase the risk of nutrient imbalance within the trees when nutrient demands are not met. The development of nutrient imbalance in Scania, southern Sweden, was shown as negative trends in needle and soil nutrient status from the mid-80s to the present in Norway spruce and Scots pine stands. This imbalance appears to be connected to high levels of N and S deposition. Clear negative effects on tree vitality were found when using a new branch development method. Today, growth and vitality seems to be limited by K, rather than N, in spruce stands older than 40 years. However, younger stands appear to be able to absorb the deposited N without negative effects on growth and vitality. When investigating effects of nutrient stress on tree vitality, indicators such as branch length and shoot multiplication rate, which include effects accumulated over several years, are suitable. Countermeasures are needed in order to maintain the forest production at a high level. Positive effects on tree nutrient status after vitality fertilization (N-free fertilization) was shown in two micronutrient deficient stands in south-central Sweden. In addition, tree vitality was positively affected after the application of a site-adapted fertilizer to the canopy. Site-adaption of fertilizers will most likely improve the possibilities of a positive response on tree growth and vitality in declining stands. In a survey of Norway spruce in mixtures with beech, birch, or oak compared to monocultures it was shown that spruce nutrient status was higher in mixtures with deciduous species than in monocultures. By using mixed-species stands the need for

  18. Nutrient imbalance in Norway spruce

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Thelin, Gunnar

    2000-11-01

    The studies presented in my thesis indicate that growing Norway spruce in monoculture does not constitute sustainable forest management in a high N and S deposition environment, such as in southern Sweden. The combination of N-induced high growth rates and leaching due to soil acidification causes soil reserves of nutrients to decrease. This will increase the risk of nutrient imbalance within the trees when nutrient demands are not met. The development of nutrient imbalance in Scania, southern Sweden, was shown as negative trends in needle and soil nutrient status from the mid-80s to the present in Norway spruce and Scots pine stands. This imbalance appears to be connected to high levels of N and S deposition. Clear negative effects on tree vitality were found when using a new branch development method. Today, growth and vitality seems to be limited by K, rather than N, in spruce stands older than 40 years. However, younger stands appear to be able to absorb the deposited N without negative effects on growth and vitality. When investigating effects of nutrient stress on tree vitality, indicators such as branch length and shoot multiplication rate, which include effects accumulated over several years, are suitable. Countermeasures are needed in order to maintain the forest production at a high level. Positive effects on tree nutrient status after vitality fertilization (N-free fertilization) was shown in two micronutrient deficient stands in south-central Sweden. In addition, tree vitality was positively affected after the application of a site-adapted fertilizer to the canopy. Site-adaption of fertilizers will most likely improve the possibilities of a positive response on tree growth and vitality in declining stands. In a survey of Norway spruce in mixtures with beech, birch, or oak compared to monocultures it was shown that spruce nutrient status was higher in mixtures with deciduous species than in monocultures. By using mixed-species stands the need for

  19. Analysis and management of risks experienced in tunnel construction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cagatay Pamukcu

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available In this study, first of all, the definitions of "risk", "risk analysis", "risk assessment" and "risk management" were made to avoid any confusions about these terms and significance of risk analysis and management in engineering projects was emphasized. Then, both qualitative and quantitative risk analysis techniques were mentioned and within the scope of the study, Event Tree Analysis method was selected in order to analyze the risks regarding TBM (Tunnel Boring Machine operations in tunnel construction. After all hazards that would be encountered during tunnel construction by TBM method had been investigated, those hazards were undergoing a Preliminary Hazard Analysis to sort out and prioritize the risks with high scores. When the risk scores were taken into consideration, it was seen that the hazards with high risk scores could be classified into 4 groups which are excavation + support induced accidents, accidents stemming from geologic conditions, auxiliary works, and project contract. According to these four classified groups of initiating events, Event Tree Analysis was conducted by taking into care 4 countermeasures apart from each other. Finally, the quantitative and qualitative consequences of Event Tree Analyses, which were undertaken for all initiating events, were investigated and interpreted together by making comparisons and referring to previous studies.

  20. Perception and acceptance of technological risk sources. Volume 2. Empirical analysis of risk perception and acceptance

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Renn, O

    1981-01-01

    Volume 2 presents a comparative investigation of risk perception and acceptance. It contains the evaluations of the two experiments in social psychology and the analysis of two intensive inquiries concerning risk perception with a view to 12 different risk sources. The data of the two inquiries were acquired from a total of 200 interview partners in two cities in North-Rhine Westphalia.

  1. Avocado consumption is associated with better diet quality and nutrient intake, and lower metabolic syndrome risk in US adults: results from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES 2001–2008

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fulgoni Victor L

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Avocados contain monounsaturated fatty acids (MUFA dietary fiber, essential nutrients and phytochemicals. However, no epidemiologic data exist on their effects on diet quality, weight management and other metabolic disease risk factors. The objective of this research was to investigate the relationships between avocado consumption and overall diet quality, energy and nutrient intakes, physiological indicators of health, and risk of metabolic syndrome. Methods Avocado consumption and nutrition data were based on 24-hour dietary recalls collected by trained NHANES interviewers using the USDA Automated Multiple Pass Method (AMPM. Physiological data were collected from physical examinations conducted in NHANES Mobile Examination Centers. Diet quality was calculated using the USDA’s Healthy Eating Index-2005. Subjects included 17,567 US adults  ≥ 19 years of age (49% female, including 347 avocado consumers (50% female, examined in NHANES 2001–2008. Least square means, standard errors, and ANOVA were determined using appropriate sample weights, with adjustments for age, gender, ethnicity, and other covariates depending on dependent variable of interest. Results Avocado consumers had significantly higher intakes of vegetables (p  Conclusions Avocado consumption is associated with improved overall diet quality, nutrient intake, and reduced risk of metabolic syndrome. Dietitians should be aware of the beneficial associations between avocado intake, diet and health when making dietary recommendations.

  2. 100% orange juice consumption is associated with better diet quality, improved nutrient adequacy, decreased risk for obesity, and improved biomarkers of health in adults: National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, 2003-2006.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Neil, Carol E; Nicklas, Theresa A; Rampersaud, Gail C; Fulgoni, Victor L

    2012-12-12

    Consumption of 100% orange juice (OJ) has been positively associated with nutrient adequacy and diet quality, with no increased risk of overweight/obesity in children; however, no one has examined these factors in adults. The purpose of this study was to examine the association of 100% OJ consumption with nutrient adequacy, diet quality, and risk factors for metabolic syndrome (MetS) in a nationally representative sample of adults. Data from adults 19+ years of age (n = 8,861) participating in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2003-2006 were used. The National Cancer Institute method was used to estimate the usual intake (UI) of 100% OJ consumption, selected nutrients, and food groups. Percentages of the population below the Estimated Average Requirement (EAR) or above the Adequate Intake (AI) were determined. Diet quality was measured by the Healthy Eating Index-2005 (HEI-2005). Covariate adjusted logistic regression was used to determine if consumers had a lower odds ratio of being overweight or obese or having risk factors of MetS or MetS. Usual per capita intake of 100% OJ was 50.3 ml/d. Among consumers (n = 2,310; 23.8%), UI was 210.0 ml/d. Compared to non-consumers, consumers had a higher (p juice, whole fruit, and whole grain. Consumers had a lower (p diet.

  3. Avocado consumption is associated with better diet quality and nutrient intake, and lower metabolic syndrome risk in US adults: results from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) 2001-2008.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fulgoni, Victor L; Dreher, Mark; Davenport, Adrienne J

    2013-01-02

    Avocados contain monounsaturated fatty acids (MUFA) dietary fiber, essential nutrients and phytochemicals. However, no epidemiologic data exist on their effects on diet quality, weight management and other metabolic disease risk factors. The objective of this research was to investigate the relationships between avocado consumption and overall diet quality, energy and nutrient intakes, physiological indicators of health, and risk of metabolic syndrome. Avocado consumption and nutrition data were based on 24-hour dietary recalls collected by trained NHANES interviewers using the USDA Automated Multiple Pass Method (AMPM). Physiological data were collected from physical examinations conducted in NHANES Mobile Examination Centers. Diet quality was calculated using the USDA's Healthy Eating Index-2005. Subjects included 17,567 US adults ≥ 19 years of age (49% female), including 347 avocado consumers (50% female), examined in NHANES 2001-2008. Least square means, standard errors, and ANOVA were determined using appropriate sample weights, with adjustments for age, gender, ethnicity, and other covariates depending on dependent variable of interest. Avocado consumers had significantly higher intakes of vegetables (pavocado consumers. The odds ratio for metabolic syndrome was 50% (95th CI: 0.32-0.72) lower in avocado consumers vs. non-consumers. Avocado consumption is associated with improved overall diet quality, nutrient intake, and reduced risk of metabolic syndrome. Dietitians should be aware of the beneficial associations between avocado intake, diet and health when making dietary recommendations.

  4. Assessment and uncertainty analysis of groundwater risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Fawen; Zhu, Jingzhao; Deng, Xiyuan; Zhao, Yong; Li, Shaofei

    2018-01-01

    Groundwater with relatively stable quantity and quality is commonly used by human being. However, as the over-mining of groundwater, problems such as groundwater funnel, land subsidence and salt water intrusion have emerged. In order to avoid further deterioration of hydrogeological problems in over-mining regions, it is necessary to conduct the assessment of groundwater risk. In this paper, risks of shallow and deep groundwater in the water intake area of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project in Tianjin, China, were evaluated. Firstly, two sets of four-level evaluation index system were constructed based on the different characteristics of shallow and deep groundwater. Secondly, based on the normalized factor values and the synthetic weights, the risk values of shallow and deep groundwater were calculated. Lastly, the uncertainty of groundwater risk assessment was analyzed by indicator kriging method. The results meet the decision maker's demand for risk information, and overcome previous risk assessment results expressed in the form of deterministic point estimations, which ignore the uncertainty of risk assessment. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. Method for environmental risk analysis (MIRA) revision 2007

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2007-04-01

    OLF's instruction manual for carrying out environmental risk analyses provides a united approach and a common framework for environmental risk assessments. This is based on the best information available. The manual implies standardizations of a series of parameters, input data and partial analyses that are included in the environmental risk analysis. Environmental risk analyses carried out according to the MIRA method will thus be comparable between fields and between companies. In this revision an update of the text in accordance with today's practice for environmental risk analyses and prevailing regulations is emphasized. Moreover, method adjustments for especially protected beach habitats have been introduced, as well as a general method for estimating environmental risk concerning fish. Emphasis has also been put on improving environmental risk analysis' possibilities to contribute to a better management of environmental risk in the companies (ml)

  6. Managing Metabolic Syndrome and CHD Risk Factors: Evidence based re-examination of macro nutrients from the Malaysian Population Prospective Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kalyana Sundram

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Our understanding of dietary factors and habits associated with coronary heart disease (CHD risk are undergoing dramatic rethinking in light of fast emerging new scientific data. Multiple risk assessments, especially in understanding Metabolic Syndrome triggers in the population have further confounded understanding and management of traditional risk factors. By far the largest change-impact is being made with regard to fat consumption, especially saturated fats. Emerging evidence, largely through meta-analysis and population studies have regularly challenged the association of saturated fats with increased CHD risk. Indeed there is a growing appreciation that saturates no longer glove-fit risk assessment especially when newer biochemical factors such as lipoprotein particle sizes have emerged to partially explain observed anomalies. The fats we eat may not necessarily be associated with making us fat (obese and obesity is a major health challenge globally. This has redirected dietary assessments more towards excess carbohydrate consumption and their possible adverse outcomes.Drawing on an ongoing population prospective study in Malaysia, such observations are similarly amplified in an urban Malaysian population. Significant carbohydrate associated negative impacts on CHD risk is seen emerging, especially when evaluated against more advanced biochemical markers. Differences in the ethnic groups of the population, modulated through cultural dietary preferences are similarly apparent. In this model, a surprisingly lower risk contributor is the prevailing fat consumption trends in the country. These observations are explained in this presentation aimed at creating better awareness of food factors impacting disease outcomes in an urban Malaysian environment whose make-up includes a substantive South Indian population as well.

  7. Managing Metabolic Syndrome and CHD Risk Factors: Evidence based re-examination of macro nutrients from the Malaysian Population Prospective Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kalyana Sundram

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Our understanding of dietary factors and habits associated with coronary heart disease (CHD risk are undergoing dramatic rethinking in light of fast emerging new scientific data. Multiple risk assessments, especially in understanding Metabolic Syndrome triggers in the population have further confounded understanding and management of traditional risk factors. By far the largest change-impact is being made with regard to fat consumption, especially saturated fats. Emerging evidence, largely through meta-analysis and population studies have regularly challenged the association of saturated fats with increased CHD risk. Indeed there is a growing appreciation that saturates no longer glove-fit risk assessment especially when newer biochemical factors such as lipoprotein particle sizes have emerged to partially explain observed anomalies. The fats we eat may not necessarily be associated with making us fat (obese and obesity is a major health challenge globally. This has redirected dietary assessments more towards excess carbohydrate consumption and their possible adverse outcomes. Drawing on an ongoing population prospective study in Malaysia, such observations are similarly amplified in an urban Malaysian population. Significant carbohydrate associated negative impacts on CHD risk is seen emerging, especially when evaluated against more advanced biochemical markers. Differences in the ethnic groups of the population, modulated through cultural dietary preferences are similarly apparent. In this model, a surprisingly lower risk contributor is the prevailing fat consumption trends in the country. These observations are explained in this presentation aimed at creating better awareness of food factors impacting disease outcomes in an urban Malaysian environment whose make-up includes a substantive South Indian population as well.

  8. Healthy Aging 5 Years After a Period of Daily Supplementation With Antioxidant Nutrients: A Post Hoc Analysis of the French Randomized Trial SU.VI.MAX.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Assmann, Karen E; Andreeva, Valentina A; Jeandel, Claude; Hercberg, Serge; Galan, Pilar; Kesse-Guyot, Emmanuelle

    2015-10-15

    This study's objective was to investigate healthy aging in older French adults 5 years after a period of daily nutritional-dose supplementation with antioxidant nutrients. The study was based on the double-blind, randomized trial, Supplementation with Antioxidant Vitamins and Minerals (SU.VI.MAX) Study (1994-2002) and the SU.VI.MAX 2 Follow-up Study (2007-2009). During 1994-2002, participants received a daily combination of vitamin C (120 mg), β-carotene (6 mg), vitamin E (30 mg), selenium (100 µg), and zinc (20 mg) or placebo. Healthy aging was assessed in 2007-2009 by using multiple criteria, including the absence of major chronic disease and good physical and cognitive functioning. Data from a subsample of the SU.VI.MAX 2 cohort, initially free of major chronic disease, with a mean age of 65.3 years in 2007-2009 (n = 3,966), were used to calculate relative risks. Supplementation was associated with a greater healthy aging probability among men (relative risk = 1.16, 95% confidence interval: 1.04, 1.29) but not among women (relative risk = 0.98, 95% confidence interval: 0.86, 1.11) or all participants (relative risk = 1.07, 95% confidence interval: 0.99, 1.16). Moreover, exploratory subgroup analyses indicated effect modification by initial serum concentrations of zinc and vitamin C. In conclusion, an adequate supply of antioxidant nutrients (equivalent to quantities provided by a balanced diet rich in fruits and vegetables) may have a beneficial role for healthy aging. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  9. Integrated risk analysis of global climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shlyakhter, Alexander; Wilson, Richard; Valverde A, L.J. Jr.

    1995-01-01

    This paper discusses several factors that should be considered in integrated risk analyses of global climate change. We begin by describing how the problem of global climate change can be subdivided into largely independent parts that can be linked together in an analytically tractable fashion. Uncertainty plays a central role in integrated risk analyses of global climate change. Accordingly, we consider various aspects of uncertainty as they relate to the climate change problem. We also consider the impacts of these uncertainties on various risk management issues, such as sequential decision strategies, value of information, and problems of interregional and intergenerational equity. (author)

  10. Risk analysis with regard to nuclear engineering

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Birkhofer, A.

    1980-01-01

    The author discusses the following questions: why are risk analyses elaborated. How are they carried out and which problems may arise. Completeness problem, data, human factors, common-mode-failures, accident simulation. To give an idea of the applicability of the results of risk analyses the author deals with systems comparison and system optimization, maintenance and testing strategies, incidents and the course of accidents that have to be considered in designing technical safety measures for nuclear power plants. Finally, the author tries to enter into questions that might arise due to the effects risk analyses may create in the general public. (HSCH) [de

  11. Methodology for risk analysis of nuclear installations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vasconcelos, Vanderley de; Senne Junior, Murillo; Jordao, Elizabete

    2002-01-01

    Both the licensing standards for general uses in nuclear facilities and the specific ones require a risk assessment during their licensing processes. The risk assessment is carried out through the estimation of both probability of the occurrence of the accident, and their magnitudes. This is a complex task because the great deal of potential hazardous events that can occur in nuclear facilities difficult the statement of the accident scenarios. There are also many available techniques to identify the potential accidents, estimate their probabilities, and evaluate their magnitudes. In this paper is presented a new methodology that systematizes the risk assessment process, and orders the accomplishment of their several steps. (author)

  12. EC Transmission Line Risk Identification and Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bigelow, Tim S [ORNL

    2012-04-01

    The purpose of this document is to assist in evaluating and planning for the cost, schedule, and technical project risks associated with the delivery and operation of the EC (Electron cyclotron) transmission line system. In general, the major risks that are anticipated to be encountered during the project delivery phase associated with the implementation of the Procurement Arrangement for the EC transmission line system are associated with: (1) Undefined or changing requirements (e.g., functional or regulatory requirements) (2) Underperformance of prototype, first unit, or production components during testing (3) Unavailability of qualified vendors for critical components Technical risks associated with the design and operation of the system are also identified.

  13. Risk Analysis for Unintentional Slide Deployment During Airline Operations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ayra, Eduardo S; Insua, David Ríos; Castellanos, María Eugenia; Larbi, Lydia

    2015-09-01

    We present a risk analysis undertaken to mitigate problems in relation to the unintended deployment of slides under normal operations within a commercial airline. This type of incident entails relevant costs for the airline industry. After assessing the likelihood and severity of its consequences, we conclude that such risks need to be managed. We then evaluate the effectiveness of various countermeasures, describing and justifying the chosen ones. We also discuss several issues faced when implementing and communicating the proposed measures, thus fully illustrating the risk analysis process. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

  14. Assessment report on NRP sub-theme 'Risk Analysis'

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Biesiot, W.; Hendrickx, L.; Olsthoorn, A.A.

    1995-01-01

    An overview and assessment are presented of the three research projects carried out under NRP funding that concern risk-related topics: (1) The risks of nonlinear climate changes, (2) Socio-economic and policy aspects of changes in incidence and intensity of extreme (weather) events, and (3) Characterizing the risks: a comparative analysis of the risks of global warming and of relevant policy strategies. 1 tab., 6 refs

  15. Invasive aquarium fish transform ecosystem nutrient dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Capps, Krista A.; Flecker, Alexander S.

    2013-01-01

    Trade of ornamental aquatic species is a multi-billion dollar industry responsible for the introduction of myriad fishes into novel ecosystems. Although aquarium invaders have the potential to alter ecosystem function, regulation of the trade is minimal and little is known about the ecosystem-level consequences of invasion for all but a small number of aquarium species. Here, we demonstrate how ecological stoichiometry can be used as a framework to identify aquarium invaders with the potential to modify ecosystem processes. We show that explosive growth of an introduced population of stoichiometrically unique, phosphorus (P)-rich catfish in a river in southern Mexico significantly transformed stream nutrient dynamics by altering nutrient storage and remineralization rates. Notably, changes varied between elements; the P-rich fish acted as net sinks of P and net remineralizers of nitrogen. Results from this study suggest species-specific stoichiometry may be insightful for understanding how invasive species modify nutrient dynamics when their population densities and elemental composition differ substantially from native organisms. Risk analysis for potential aquarium imports should consider species traits such as body stoichiometry, which may increase the likelihood that an invasion will alter the structure and function of ecosystems. PMID:23966642

  16. Approach for seismic risk analysis for CANDU plants in Korea

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, B-S; Kim, T; Kang, S-K [Korea Power Engineering Co., Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Hong, S-Y; Roh, S-R [Korea Electric Power Corp., Taejon (Korea, Republic of). Research Centre

    1996-12-31

    A seismic risk analysis for CANDU type plants has never been performed. The study presented here suggested that the approach generally applied to LWR type plants could lead to unacceptable result, if directly applied to CANDU plants. This paper presents a modified approach for the seismic risk analysis of CANDU plants. (author). 5 refs., 2 tabs., 2 figs.

  17. Operational Risk Management A Practical Approach to Intelligent Data Analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Kenett, Ron

    2010-01-01

    The book will introduce modern Operational Risk (OpR) Management and illustrates the various sources of OpR assessment and OpR mitigation. This book discusses how various data sources can be integrated and analyzed and how OpR is synergetic to other risk management activities such as Financial Risk Management and Internationalization. The topics will include state of the art technology such as semantic analysis, ontology engineering, data mining and statistical analysis.

  18. Living PRAs [probabilistic risk analysis] made easier with IRRAS [Integrated Reliability and Risk Analysis System

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Russell, K.D.; Sattison, M.B.; Rasmuson, D.M.

    1989-01-01

    The Integrated Reliability and Risk Analysis System (IRRAS) is an integrated PRA software tool that gives the user the ability to create and analyze fault trees and accident sequences using an IBM-compatible microcomputer. This program provides functions that range from graphical fault tree and event tree construction to cut set generation and quantification. IRRAS contains all the capabilities and functions required to create, modify, reduce, and analyze event tree and fault tree models used in the analysis of complex systems and processes. IRRAS uses advanced graphic and analytical techniques to achieve the greatest possible realization of the potential of the microcomputer. When the needs of the user exceed this potential, IRRAS can call upon the power of the mainframe computer. The role of the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory if the IRRAS program is that of software developer and interface to the user community. Version 1.0 of the IRRAS program was released in February 1987 to prove the concept of performing this kind of analysis on microcomputers. This version contained many of the basic features needed for fault tree analysis and was received very well by the PRA community. Since the release of Version 1.0, many user comments and enhancements have been incorporated into the program providing a much more powerful and user-friendly system. This version is designated ''IRRAS 2.0''. Version 3.0 will contain all of the features required for efficient event tree and fault tree construction and analysis. 5 refs., 26 figs

  19. Big Data Risk Analysis for Rail Safety?

    OpenAIRE

    Van Gulijk, Coen; Hughes, Peter; Figueres-Esteban, Miguel; Dacre, Marcus; Harrison, Chris; HUD; RSSB

    2015-01-01

    Computer scientists believe that the enormous amounts of data in the internet will unchain a management revolution of uncanny proportions. Yet, to date, the potential benefit of this revolution is scantily investigated for safety and risk management. This paper gives a brief overview of a research programme that investigates how the new internet-driven data-revolution could benefit safety and risk management for railway safety in the UK. The paper gives a brief overview the current activities...

  20. Integrating Household Risk Mitigation Behavior in Flood Risk Analysis: An Agent-Based Model Approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haer, Toon; Botzen, W J Wouter; de Moel, Hans; Aerts, Jeroen C J H

    2017-10-01

    Recent studies showed that climate change and socioeconomic trends are expected to increase flood risks in many regions. However, in these studies, human behavior is commonly assumed to be constant, which neglects interaction and feedback loops between human and environmental systems. This neglect of human adaptation leads to a misrepresentation of flood risk. This article presents an agent-based model that incorporates human decision making in flood risk analysis. In particular, household investments in loss-reducing measures are examined under three economic decision models: (1) expected utility theory, which is the traditional economic model of rational agents; (2) prospect theory, which takes account of bounded rationality; and (3) a prospect theory model, which accounts for changing risk perceptions and social interactions through a process of Bayesian updating. We show that neglecting human behavior in flood risk assessment studies can result in a considerable misestimation of future flood risk, which is in our case study an overestimation of a factor two. Furthermore, we show how behavior models can support flood risk analysis under different behavioral assumptions, illustrating the need to include the dynamic adaptive human behavior of, for instance, households, insurers, and governments. The method presented here provides a solid basis for exploring human behavior and the resulting flood risk with respect to low-probability/high-impact risks. © 2016 The Authors Risk Analysis published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society for Risk Analysis.

  1. Project Portfolio Risk Identification and Analysis, Considering Project Risk Interactions and Using Bayesian Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Foroogh Ghasemi

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available An organization’s strategic objectives are accomplished through portfolios. However, the materialization of portfolio risks may affect a portfolio’s sustainable success and the achievement of those objectives. Moreover, project interdependencies and cause–effect relationships between risks create complexity for portfolio risk analysis. This paper presents a model using Bayesian network (BN methodology for modeling and analyzing portfolio risks. To develop this model, first, portfolio-level risks and risks caused by project interdependencies are identified. Then, based on their cause–effect relationships all portfolio risks are organized in a BN. Conditional probability distributions for this network are specified and the Bayesian networks method is used to estimate the probability of portfolio risk. This model was applied to a portfolio of a construction company located in Iran and proved effective in analyzing portfolio risk probability. Furthermore, the model provided valuable information for selecting a portfolio’s projects and making strategic decisions.

  2. Single-shell tank interim stabilization risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Basche, A.D.

    1998-01-01

    The purpose of the Single-Shell Tank (SST) Interim Stabilization Risk Analysis is to provide a cost and schedule risk analysis of HNF-2358, Rev. 1, Single-Shell Tank Interim Stabilization Project Plan (Project Plan) (Ross et al. 1998). The analysis compares the required cost profile by fiscal year (Section 4.2) and revised schedule completion date (Section 4.5) to the Project Plan. The analysis also evaluates the executability of the Project Plan and recommends a path forward for risk mitigation

  3. Identification and analysis of antinutritional factors in possible interactions between medications and food/ nutrients in hospitalized patients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adnny Fernanda Lima Campos

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available Objective: To identify and analyze the presence of antinutritionalfactors in possible interactions between medications and foods/nutrients of the diets prescribed for patients of the Hospital Regional Justino Luz, in the city of Picos (PI in order to suggest their likely mechanisms. Methods: The sample was made up of 120 medical records of hospitalized patients. The charts were analyzed to verify the presence or absence of interactions between medications andfoods/nutrients of the diets prescribed to the patients at the Hospital Regional Justino Luz, emphasizing the action of antinutritional factors in these interactions. Results: Of the 189 medications prescribed, 128 (67.7% had a possible interaction with food, totaling up 98 possible interactions between nutrients/foods and medications. Therefore, 20 (20.4%, 12 (12.2% and 11 (11.2% possible interactions were identified with captopril, acetylsalicylic acid and spironolactone, respectively, representing, in this order, the greatest frequencies of possible interactions among drugs and foods. A total of nine antinutritional factors were found in seven vegetable foods prescribed to inpatients, in which five (55.6% were capable of interacting with the medications. Phytates and tannins had the largest quantity of possible interactions with drugs, each with 4 (26.7% in a total of 15 interactions. The medications aluminum hydroxide, digoxin, and paracetamol attained greater probability of interaction with antinutrients, with 5 (33.3%, 3 (20% and 3 (20% interactions, respectively. Conclusion: Due to the large quantity of antinutritional factors capable of interacting with drugs prescribed for inpatients, the involvement of a multiprofessional team is indispensable so that these possible interactions between foods, antinutritional factors and drugs might be foreseen, detected, and resolved.

  4. Risk analysis of Finnish peacekeeping in Kosovo.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lehtomäki, Kyösti; Pääkkönen, Rauno J; Rantanen, Jorma

    2005-04-01

    The research team interviewed over 90 Finnish battalion members in Kosovo, visited 22 units or posts, registered its observations, and made any necessary measurements. Key persons were asked to list the most important risks for occupational safety and health in their area of responsibility. Altogether, 106 accidents and 40 cases of disease resulted in compensation claims in 2000. The risks to the peacekeeping force were about twice those of the permanent staff of military trainees in Finland. Altogether, 21 accidents or cases of disease resulted in sick leave for at least 3 months after service. One permanent injury resulted from an explosion. Biological, chemical, and physical factors caused 8 to 9 occupational illnesses each. Traffic accidents, operational factors, and munitions and mines were evaluated to be the three most important risk factors, followed by occupational hygiene, living conditions (mold, fungi, dust), and general hygiene. Possible fatal risks, such as traffic accidents and munitions and explosives, received a high ranking in both the subjective and the objective evaluations. One permanent injury resulted from an explosion, and two traffic accidents involved a fatality, although not of a peacekeeper. The reduction of sports and military training accidents, risk-control programs, and, for some tasks, better personal protection is considered a development challenge for the near future.

  5. Genome-wide analysis of SREBP1 activity around the clock reveals its combined dependency on nutrient and circadian signals.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Federica Gilardi

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available In mammals, the circadian clock allows them to anticipate and adapt physiology around the 24 hours. Conversely, metabolism and food consumption regulate the internal clock, pointing the existence of an intricate relationship between nutrient state and circadian homeostasis that is far from being understood. The Sterol Regulatory Element Binding Protein 1 (SREBP1 is a key regulator of lipid homeostasis. Hepatic SREBP1 function is influenced by the nutrient-response cycle, but also by the circadian machinery. To systematically understand how the interplay of circadian clock and nutrient-driven rhythm regulates SREBP1 activity, we evaluated the genome-wide binding of SREBP1 to its targets throughout the day in C57BL/6 mice. The recruitment of SREBP1 to the DNA showed a highly circadian behaviour, with a maximum during the fed status. However, the temporal expression of SREBP1 targets was not always synchronized with its binding pattern. In particular, different expression phases were observed for SREBP1 target genes depending on their function, suggesting the involvement of other transcription factors in their regulation. Binding sites for Hepatocyte Nuclear Factor 4 (HNF4 were specifically enriched in the close proximity of SREBP1 peaks of genes, whose expression was shifted by about 8 hours with respect to SREBP1 binding. Thus, the cross-talk between hepatic HNF4 and SREBP1 may underlie the expression timing of this subgroup of SREBP1 targets. Interestingly, the proper temporal expression profile of these genes was dramatically changed in Bmal1-/- mice upon time-restricted feeding, for which a rhythmic, but slightly delayed, binding of SREBP1 was maintained. Collectively, our results show that besides the nutrient-driven regulation of SREBP1 nuclear translocation, a second layer of modulation of SREBP1 transcriptional activity, strongly dependent from the circadian clock, exists. This system allows us to fine tune the expression timing of SREBP1

  6. Genome-Wide Analysis of SREBP1 Activity around the Clock Reveals Its Combined Dependency on Nutrient and Circadian Signals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naldi, Aurélien; Baruchet, Michaël; Canella, Donatella; Le Martelot, Gwendal; Guex, Nicolas; Desvergne, Béatrice; Delorenzi, Mauro; Deplancke, Bart; Desvergne, Béatrice; Guex, Nicolas; Herr, Winship; Naef, Felix; Rougemont, Jacques; Schibler, Ueli; Deplancke, Bart; Guex, Nicolas; Herr, Winship; Guex, Nicolas; Andersin, Teemu; Cousin, Pascal; Gilardi, Federica; Gos, Pascal; Martelot, Gwendal Le; Lammers, Fabienne; Canella, Donatella; Gilardi, Federica; Raghav, Sunil; Fabbretti, Roberto; Fortier, Arnaud; Long, Li; Vlegel, Volker; Xenarios, Ioannis; Migliavacca, Eugenia; Praz, Viviane; Guex, Nicolas; Naef, Felix; Rougemont, Jacques; David, Fabrice; Jarosz, Yohan; Kuznetsov, Dmitry; Liechti, Robin; Martin, Olivier; Delafontaine, Julien; Sinclair, Lucas; Cajan, Julia; Krier, Irina; Leleu, Marion; Migliavacca, Eugenia; Molina, Nacho; Naldi, Aurélien; Rey, Guillaume; Symul, Laura; Guex, Nicolas; Naef, Felix; Rougemont, Jacques; Bernasconi, David; Delorenzi, Mauro; Andersin, Teemu; Canella, Donatella; Gilardi, Federica; Martelot, Gwendal Le; Lammers, Fabienne; Baruchet, Michaël; Raghav, Sunil

    2014-01-01

    In mammals, the circadian clock allows them to anticipate and adapt physiology around the 24 hours. Conversely, metabolism and food consumption regulate the internal clock, pointing the existence of an intricate relationship between nutrient state and circadian homeostasis that is far from being understood. The Sterol Regulatory Element Binding Protein 1 (SREBP1) is a key regulator of lipid homeostasis. Hepatic SREBP1 function is influenced by the nutrient-response cycle, but also by the circadian machinery. To systematically understand how the interplay of circadian clock and nutrient-driven rhythm regulates SREBP1 activity, we evaluated the genome-wide binding of SREBP1 to its targets throughout the day in C57BL/6 mice. The recruitment of SREBP1 to the DNA showed a highly circadian behaviour, with a maximum during the fed status. However, the temporal expression of SREBP1 targets was not always synchronized with its binding pattern. In particular, different expression phases were observed for SREBP1 target genes depending on their function, suggesting the involvement of other transcription factors in their regulation. Binding sites for Hepatocyte Nuclear Factor 4 (HNF4) were specifically enriched in the close proximity of SREBP1 peaks of genes, whose expression was shifted by about 8 hours with respect to SREBP1 binding. Thus, the cross-talk between hepatic HNF4 and SREBP1 may underlie the expression timing of this subgroup of SREBP1 targets. Interestingly, the proper temporal expression profile of these genes was dramatically changed in Bmal1 −/− mice upon time-restricted feeding, for which a rhythmic, but slightly delayed, binding of SREBP1 was maintained. Collectively, our results show that besides the nutrient-driven regulation of SREBP1 nuclear translocation, a second layer of modulation of SREBP1 transcriptional activity, strongly dependent from the circadian clock, exists. This system allows us to fine tune the expression timing of SREBP1 target genes

  7. Risk Analysis for the Different Consolidation Proposals

    CERN Document Server

    Strait, J

    2009-01-01

    In parallel with the repairs in sector 34, improvements are planned to a number of systems, to allow safe detection of faults similar to the one which caused the incident of 19 September, and to limit the damage should a similar incident nonetheless occur. These include improved bus and quench detection systems, improved pressure relief for the insulating and beam vacuum systems, and improved anchoring of the SSS to the tunnel floor. Not all of the planned mitigations, however, may be fully implemented before the restart of the LHC in 2009. I will review the potential benefits of partial or complete implementation of each of the planned improvements, individually or together with others, and conversely the potential risks (consequences) of delayed implementation. I will also review the risks that remain even after the planned consolidation is complete. Considering all proposals and the different risks, I will comment on what would be the best strategy for consolidation, and on the strategy for operations unde...

  8. The Total Risk Analysis of Large Dams under Flood Hazards

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yu Chen

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Dams and reservoirs are useful systems in water conservancy projects; however, they also pose a high-risk potential for large downstream areas. Flood, as the driving force of dam overtopping, is the main cause of dam failure. Dam floods and their risks are of interest to researchers and managers. In hydraulic engineering, there is a growing tendency to evaluate dam flood risk based on statistical and probabilistic methods that are unsuitable for the situations with rare historical data or low flood probability, so a more reasonable dam flood risk analysis method with fewer application restrictions is needed. Therefore, different from previous studies, this study develops a flood risk analysis method for large dams based on the concept of total risk factor (TRF used initially in dam seismic risk analysis. The proposed method is not affected by the adequacy of historical data or the low probability of flood and is capable of analyzing the dam structure influence, the flood vulnerability of the dam site, and downstream risk as well as estimating the TRF of each dam and assigning corresponding risk classes to each dam. Application to large dams in the Dadu River Basin, Southwestern China, demonstrates that the proposed method provides quick risk estimation and comparison, which can help local management officials perform more detailed dam safety evaluations for useful risk management information.

  9. Risk Analysis for Environmental Health Triage

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bogen, K T

    2005-01-01

    The Homeland Security Act mandates development of a national, risk-based system to support planning for, response to and recovery from emergency situations involving large-scale toxic exposures. To prepare for and manage consequences effectively, planners and responders need not only to identify zones of potentially elevated individual risk, but also to predict expected casualties. Emergency response support systems now define ''consequences'' by mapping areas in which toxic chemical concentrations do or may exceed Acute Exposure Guideline Levels (AEGLs) or similar guidelines. However, because AEGLs do not estimate expected risks, current unqualified claims that such maps support consequence management are misleading. Intentionally protective, AEGLs incorporate various safety/uncertainty factors depending on scope and quality of chemical-specific toxicity data. Some of these factors are irrelevant, and others need to be modified, whenever resource constraints or exposure-scenario complexities require responders to make critical trade-off (triage) decisions in order to minimize expected casualties. AEGL-exceedance zones cannot consistently be aggregated, compared, or used to calculate expected casualties, and so may seriously misguide emergency response triage decisions. Methods and tools well established and readily available to support environmental health protection are not yet developed for chemically related environmental health triage. Effective triage decisions involving chemical risks require a new assessment approach that focuses on best estimates of likely casualties, rather than on upper plausible bounds of individual risk. If risk-based consequence management is to become a reality, federal agencies tasked with supporting emergency response must actively coordinate to foster new methods that can support effective environmental health triage

  10. Risk analysis: divergent models and convergent interpretations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carnes, B. A.; Gavrilova, N.

    2001-01-01

    Material presented at a NASA-sponsored workshop on risk models for exposure conditions relevant to prolonged space flight are described in this paper. Analyses used mortality data from experiments conducted at Argonne National Laboratory on the long-term effects of external whole-body irradiation on B6CF1 mice by 60Co gamma rays and fission neutrons delivered as a single exposure or protracted over either 24 or 60 once-weekly exposures. The maximum dose considered was restricted to 1 Gy for neutrons and 10 Gy for gamma rays. Proportional hazard models were used to investigate the shape of the dose response at these lower doses for deaths caused by solid-tissue tumors and tumors of either connective or epithelial tissue origin. For protracted exposures, a significant mortality effect was detected at a neutron dose of 14 cGy and a gamma-ray dose of 3 Gy. For single exposures, radiation-induced mortality for neutrons also occurred within the range of 10-20 cGy, but dropped to 86 cGy for gamma rays. Plots of risk relative to control estimated for each observed dose gave a visual impression of nonlinearity for both neutrons and gamma rays. At least for solid-tissue tumors, male and female mortality was nearly identical for gamma-ray exposures, but mortality risks for females were higher than for males for neutron exposures. As expected, protracting the gamma-ray dose reduced mortality risks. Although curvature consistent with that observed visually could be detected by a model parameterized to detect curvature, a relative risk term containing only a simple term for total dose was usually sufficient to describe the dose response. Although detectable mortality for the three pathology end points considered typically occurred at the same level of dose, the highest risks were almost always associated with deaths caused by tumors of epithelial tissue origin.

  11. Stress Analysis in Managing the Region’s Budget Risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Natalya Pavlovna Pazdnikova

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available The article addresses the implementation of budget risk management methods into the practices of governmental authorities. Drawing on the example of a particular region the article aims to demonstrate the possible methods of budget risk management. The authors refine the existing approaches to the notion of risk in its relation to budget system by introducing the notion of “budget risk.” Here the focus is the risk of default of budget spending in full which causes underfunding of territories and decrease in quality of life in the region. The authors have particularized the classification of budget risks and grouped together the criteria and factors which significantly influence the assessment and choice of method to manage budget risks. They hypothesize that budget risk is a financial risk. Therefore, the methods of financial risks management can be applied to budget risks management. The authors suggest a methodological approach to risk assessment based on correlation and regression analysis of program financing. The application of Kendall rank correlation coefficient allowed to assess the efficiency of budget spending on the implementation of state programs in Perm Krai. Two clusters — “Nature management and infrastructure” and “Public security” — turned out to be in the zone of high budget risk. The method of stress analysis, which consists in calculating Value at Risk (VaR, was applied to budget risks that in terms of probability are classified as critical. In order to assess risk as probability rate, the amount of Perm Krai deficit budget was calculated as induced variable from budget revenues and spending. The results demonstrate that contemporary management of public resources in the regions calls for the implementation of new management tools of higher quality and budget risk management is one of them.

  12. Cooked oatmeal consumption is associated with better diet quality, better nutrient intakes, and reduced risk for central adiposity and obesity in children 2-18 years: NHANES 2001-2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Neil, Carol E; Nicklas, Theresa A; Fulgoni, Victor L; DiRienzo, Maureen A

    2015-01-01

    None of the studies of whole grains that have looked either at diet or weight/adiposity measures have focused exclusively on oatmeal. The objective of this study was to assess the association between oatmeal consumption and nutrient intake, diet quality, and weight/adiposity of children aged 2-18. A nationally representative sample of children aged 2-18 (N=14,690) participating in National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2001-2010 was used. Intake was determined from a single 24-h dietary recall. Diet quality was measured using the Healthy Eating Index-2010 (HEI-2010). Covariate-adjusted regression analyses, using appropriate sample weights, were used to determine differences between oatmeal consumers and non-consumers for demographics, nutrient intakes, diet quality, and weight/adiposity measures (pempty calories. Children consuming oatmeal were at lower risk for having central adiposity and being obese. Consumption of oatmeal by children was associated with better nutrient intake, diet quality, and reduced risk for central adiposity and obesity and should be encouraged as part of an overall healthful diet.

  13. Cooked oatmeal consumption is associated with better diet quality, better nutrient intakes, and reduced risk for central adiposity and obesity in children 2–18 years: NHANES 2001–2010

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Neil, Carol E.; Nicklas, Theresa A.; Fulgoni, Victor L.; DiRienzo, Maureen A.

    2015-01-01

    Background None of the studies of whole grains that have looked either at diet or weight/adiposity measures have focused exclusively on oatmeal. Objective The objective of this study was to assess the association between oatmeal consumption and nutrient intake, diet quality, and weight/adiposity of children aged 2–18. Design A nationally representative sample of children aged 2–18 (N=14,690) participating in National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2001–2010 was used. Intake was determined from a single 24-h dietary recall. Diet quality was measured using the Healthy Eating Index-2010 (HEI-2010). Covariate-adjusted regression analyses, using appropriate sample weights, were used to determine differences between oatmeal consumers and non-consumers for demographics, nutrient intakes, diet quality, and weight/adiposity measures (pempty calories. Children consuming oatmeal were at lower risk for having central adiposity and being obese. Conclusions Consumption of oatmeal by children was associated with better nutrient intake, diet quality, and reduced risk for central adiposity and obesity and should be encouraged as part of an overall healthful diet. PMID:26022379

  14. Comparative analysis of phytochemicals and nutrient availability in two contrasting cultivars of sweet potato (Ipomoea batatas L.).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shekhar, Shubhendu; Mishra, Divya; Buragohain, Alak Kumar; Chakraborty, Subhra; Chakraborty, Niranjan

    2015-04-15

    Sweet potato ranks as the world's seventh most important food crop, and has major contribution to energy and phytochemical source of nutrition. To unravel the molecular basis for differential nutrient availability, and to exploit the natural genetic variation(s) of sweet potato, a series of physiochemical and proteomics experiment was conducted using two contrasting cultivars, an orange-fleshed sweet potato (OFSP) and a white-fleshed sweet potato (WFSP). Phytochemical screening revealed high percentage of carbohydrate, reducing sugar and phenolics in WFSP, whereas OFSP showed increased levels of total protein, flavonoids, anthocyanins, and carotenoids. The rate of starch and cellulose degradation was found to be less in OFSP during storage, indicating tight regulation of gene(s) responsible for starch-degradation. Comparative proteomics displayed a cultivar-dependent expression of proteins along with evolutionarily conserved proteins. These results suggest that cultivar-specific expression of proteins and/or their interacting partners might play a crucial role for nutrient acquisition in sweet potato. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Bioprocessing papaya processing waste for potential aquaculture feed supplement--economic and nutrient analysis with shrimp feeding trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kang, H Y; Yang, P Y; Dominy, W G; Lee, C S

    2010-10-01

    Papaya processing waste (PPW), a major fruit processing waste in the Hawaii islands, served as substrate for yeast (Saccharomyces cerevisiae) growth. The fermented PPW products containing nutrients of 45% crude protein and various fat, fiber, lignin, cellulose, and minerals were advantages to nutrients of yeast alone. Three experimental diets controlled at 35% protein formulation containing different levels of inclusion of PPW products and a commercial control diet were fed to shrimps for 8 weeks. The 50% inclusion of PPW diets were comparable to commercial feed in weight, growth, feed conversion ratio (FCR) and survival rate. Such bioprocess treatment system would be economically feasible with the control of annual cost and increase of the amount of PPW treated. The selling price of PPW products and annual operation and maintenance cost were the most influential factors to additional profits. This study presented a promising alternative for environmental-friendly treatment of organic wastes as well as the sustainability of local agriculture and aquaculture industries. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Modeling issues in nuclear plant fire risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Siu, N.

    1989-01-01

    This paper discusses various issues associated with current models for analyzing the risk due to fires in nuclear power plants. Particular emphasis is placed on the fire growth and suppression models, these being unique to the fire portion of the overall risk analysis. Potentially significant modeling improvements are identified; also discussed are a variety of modeling issues where improvements will help the credibility of the analysis, without necessarily changing the computed risk significantly. The mechanistic modeling of fire initiation is identified as a particularly promising improvement for reducing the uncertainties in the predicted risk. 17 refs., 5 figs. 2 tabs

  17. LDC commodity risk analysis and recommendations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2002-01-01

    Under the current operation of the new competitive electricity market in Ontario, local distribution companies (LDCs) are required to pay the monthly invoice of the Independent Market Operator (IMO) before they collect from end-users for the consumption period covered by the invoice, with no clear guarantee that the recovery will occur. This situation creates a major cash flow problem and financial risk for LDCs and threatens the integrity and stability of the electricity market. This paper described 3 features of Ontario's competitive electricity market that create financial and commodity risk. The first problem is that there is no limit on how high prices can rise. Increases in wholesale commodity prices can result in a situation where the amount of the IMO's invoice is greater than the LDC's ability to pay at the time of receipt. Secondly, the LDC bears a 100 per cent payment obligation to the IMO administrator of the wholesale market. The third problem is that LDCs bear payment default risk from all consumers in the Ontario market, including electricity retailers. This paper presents some specific policy solutions that can protect the market from this threat. It was suggested that in order to protect the integrity of Ontario's electricity market during high prices, a policy must be drafted to address the commodity price financing risk (CPFR) issue. The policy must also define what happens if prices increase past the LDCs financing obligation limit. tabs., figs

  18. Risk Analysis and Security Countermeasure Selection

    CERN Document Server

    Norman, Thomas L

    2009-01-01

    Explains how to evaluate the appropriateness of security countermeasures, from a cost-effectiveness perspective. This title guides readers from basic principles to complex processes in a step-by-step fashion, evaluating DHS-approved risk assessment methods, including CARVER, API/NPRA, RAMCAP, and various Sandia methodologies

  19. How to Perform an Ethical Risk Analysis (eRA).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansson, Sven Ove

    2018-02-26

    Ethical analysis is often needed in the preparation of policy decisions on risk. A three-step method is proposed for performing an ethical risk analysis (eRA). In the first step, the people concerned are identified and categorized in terms of the distinct but compatible roles of being risk-exposed, a beneficiary, or a decisionmaker. In the second step, a more detailed classification of roles and role combinations is performed, and ethically problematic role combinations are identified. In the third step, further ethical deliberation takes place, with an emphasis on individual risk-benefit weighing, distributional analysis, rights analysis, and power analysis. Ethical issues pertaining to subsidiary risk roles, such as those of experts and journalists, are also treated in this phase. An eRA should supplement, not replace, a traditional risk analysis that puts emphasis on the probabilities and severities of undesirable events but does not cover ethical issues such as agency, interpersonal relationships, and justice. © 2018 Society for Risk Analysis.

  20. Flood Risk Assessment Based On Security Deficit Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beck, J.; Metzger, R.; Hingray, B.; Musy, A.

    Risk is a human perception: a given risk may be considered as acceptable or unac- ceptable depending on the group that has to face that risk. Flood risk analysis of- ten estimates economic losses from damages, but neglects the question of accept- able/unacceptable risk. With input from land use managers, politicians and other stakeholders, risk assessment based on security deficit analysis determines objects with unacceptable risk and their degree of security deficit. Such a risk assessment methodology, initially developed by the Swiss federal authorities, is illustrated by its application on a reach of the Alzette River (Luxembourg) in the framework of the IRMA-SPONGE FRHYMAP project. Flood risk assessment always involves a flood hazard analysis, an exposed object vulnerability analysis, and an analysis combing the results of these two previous analyses. The flood hazard analysis was done with the quasi-2D hydraulic model FldPln to produce flood intensity maps. Flood intensity was determined by the water height and velocity. Object data for the vulnerability analysis, provided by the Luxembourg government, were classified according to their potential damage. Potential damage is expressed in terms of direct, human life and secondary losses. A thematic map was produced to show the object classification. Protection goals were then attributed to the object classes. Protection goals are assigned in terms of an acceptable flood intensity for a certain flood frequency. This is where input from land use managers and politicians comes into play. The perception of risk in the re- gion or country influences the protection goal assignment. Protection goals as used in Switzerland were used in this project. Thematic maps showing the protection goals of each object in the case study area for a given flood frequency were produced. Com- parison between an object's protection goal and the intensity of the flood that touched the object determine the acceptability of the risk and the

  1. On the validation of risk analysis-A commentary

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rosqvist, Tony

    2010-01-01

    Aven and Heide (2009) [1] provided interesting views on the reliability and validation of risk analysis. The four validation criteria presented are contrasted with modelling features related to the relative frequency-based and Bayesian approaches to risk analysis. In this commentary I would like to bring forth some issues on validation that partly confirm and partly suggest changes in the interpretation of the introduced validation criteria-especially, in the context of low probability-high consequence systems. The mental model of an expert in assessing probabilities is argued to be a key notion in understanding the validation of a risk analysis.

  2. Risk analysis methodologies for the transportation of radioactive materials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Geffen, C.A.

    1983-05-01

    Different methodologies have evolved for consideration of each of the many steps required in performing a transportation risk analysis. Although there are techniques that attempt to consider the entire scope of the analysis in depth, most applications of risk assessment to the transportation of nuclear fuel cycle materials develop specific methodologies for only one or two parts of the analysis. The remaining steps are simplified for the analyst by narrowing the scope of the effort (such as evaluating risks for only one material, or a particular set of accident scenarios, or movement over a specific route); performing a qualitative rather than a quantitative analysis (probabilities may be simply ranked as high, medium or low, for instance); or assuming some generic, conservative conditions for potential release fractions and consequences. This paper presents a discussion of the history and present state-of-the-art of transportation risk analysis methodologies. Many reports in this area were reviewed as background for this presentation. The literature review, while not exhaustive, did result in a complete representation of the major methods used today in transportation risk analysis. These methodologies primarily include the use of severity categories based on historical accident data, the analysis of specifically assumed accident sequences for the transportation activity of interest, and the use of fault or event tree analysis. Although the focus of this work has generally been on potential impacts to public groups, some effort has been expended in the estimation of risks to occupational groups in transportation activities

  3. Risk analysis of complex hydrogen infrastructures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Markert, Frank; Marangon, Alessia; Carcassi, Marco

    2015-01-01

    Developing a future sustainable refuelling station network is the next important step to establish hydrogen as a fuel for vehicles and related services. Such stations will most likely be integrated in existing refuelling stations and result in multi-fuel storages with a variety of fuels being...... to improve the quality of biomass based fuels. Therefore, hydrogen supply and distribution chains will likely not only serve to fulfil the demands of refuelling, but may also be important for the wider electrical power and fuel industries. Based on an integrated hydrogen supply and distribution network...... assessment methodologies, and how functional models could support coherent risk and sustainability (Risk Assessment, Life Cycle Assessment /Life Cycle Costing) assessments, in order to find optimal solutions for the development of the infrastructure on a regional or national level....

  4. Analysis of power system collapse risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eleschova, Z.; Belan, A.; Cintula, B.; Smitkova, M.

    2012-01-01

    In this paper are analysed the initialization events with considering different scenarios and their impact on the power system transient stability. As an initialization event is considered a short circuit at various places of power line. In each scenario are considered protection failures (backup protection), circuit-breaker failures (breaker failure relay activation). The individual states are analysed and the power system collapse risk assessed based on the simulation experiments results (Authors)

  5. Soluble organic nutrient fluxes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robert G. Qualls; Bruce L. Haines; Wayne Swank

    2014-01-01

    Our objectives in this study were (i) compare fluxes of the dissolved organic nutrients dissolved organic carbon (DOC), DON, and dissolved organic phosphorus (DOP) in a clearcut area and an adjacent mature reference area. (ii) determine whether concentrations of dissolved organic nutrients or inorganic nutrients were greater in clearcut areas than in reference areas,...

  6. Bayesian-network-based safety risk analysis in construction projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, Limao; Wu, Xianguo; Skibniewski, Miroslaw J.; Zhong, Jingbing; Lu, Yujie

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents a systemic decision support approach for safety risk analysis under uncertainty in tunnel construction. Fuzzy Bayesian Networks (FBN) is used to investigate causal relationships between tunnel-induced damage and its influential variables based upon the risk/hazard mechanism analysis. Aiming to overcome limitations on the current probability estimation, an expert confidence indicator is proposed to ensure the reliability of the surveyed data for fuzzy probability assessment of basic risk factors. A detailed fuzzy-based inference procedure is developed, which has a capacity of implementing deductive reasoning, sensitivity analysis and abductive reasoning. The “3σ criterion” is adopted to calculate the characteristic values of a triangular fuzzy number in the probability fuzzification process, and the α-weighted valuation method is adopted for defuzzification. The construction safety analysis progress is extended to the entire life cycle of risk-prone events, including the pre-accident, during-construction continuous and post-accident control. A typical hazard concerning the tunnel leakage in the construction of Wuhan Yangtze Metro Tunnel in China is presented as a case study, in order to verify the applicability of the proposed approach. The results demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed approach and its application potential. A comparison of advantages and disadvantages between FBN and fuzzy fault tree analysis (FFTA) as risk analysis tools is also conducted. The proposed approach can be used to provide guidelines for safety analysis and management in construction projects, and thus increase the likelihood of a successful project in a complex environment. - Highlights: • A systemic Bayesian network based approach for safety risk analysis is developed. • An expert confidence indicator for probability fuzzification is proposed. • Safety risk analysis progress is extended to entire life cycle of risk-prone events. • A typical

  7. Environmental risk assessment in GMO analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pirondini, Andrea; Marmiroli, Nelson

    2010-01-01

    Genetically modified or engineered organisms (GMOs, GEOs) are utilised in agriculture, expressing traits of interest, such as insect or herbicide resistance. Soybean, maize, cotton and oilseed rape are the GM crops with the largest acreage in the world. The distribution of GM acreage in the different countries is related with the different positions concerning labelling of GMO products: based on the principle of substantial equivalence, or rather based on the precautionary principle. The paper provides an overview on how the risks associated with release of GMO in the environments can be analysed and predicted, in view of a possible coexistence of GM and non-GM organisms in agriculture.Risk assessment procedures, both qualitative and quantitative, are compared in the context of application to GMOs considering also legislation requirements (Directive 2001/18/EC). Criteria and measurable properties to assess harm for human health and environmental safety are listed, and the possible consequences are evaluated in terms of significance.Finally, a mapping of the possible risks deriving from GMO release is reported, focusing on gene transfer to related species, horizontal gene transfer, direct and indirect effects on non target organisms, development of resistance in target organisms, and effects on biodiversity.

  8. A Meta-Analysis to Determine the Impact of Restaurant Menu Labeling on Calories and Nutrients (Ordered or Consumed) in U.S. Adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cantu-Jungles, Thaisa M; McCormack, Lacey A; Slaven, James E; Slebodnik, Maribeth; Eicher-Miller, Heather A

    2017-09-30

    A systematic review and meta-analysis determined the effect of restaurant menu labeling on calories and nutrients chosen in laboratory and away-from-home settings in U.S. adults. Cochrane-based criteria adherent, peer-reviewed study designs conducted and published in the English language from 1950 to 2014 were collected in 2015, analyzed in 2016, and used to evaluate the effect of nutrition labeling on calories and nutrients ordered or consumed. Before and after menu labeling outcomes were used to determine weighted mean differences in calories, saturated fat, total fat, carbohydrate, and sodium ordered/consumed which were pooled across studies using random effects modeling. Stratified analysis for laboratory and away-from-home settings were also completed. Menu labeling resulted in no significant change in reported calories ordered/consumed in studies with full criteria adherence, nor the 14 studies analyzed with ≤1 unmet criteria, nor for change in total ordered carbohydrate, fat, and saturated fat (three studies) or ordered or consumed sodium (four studies). A significant reduction of 115.2 calories ordered/consumed in laboratory settings was determined when analyses were stratified by study setting. Menu labeling away-from-home did not result in change in quantity or quality, specifically for carbohydrates, total fat, saturated fat, or sodium, of calories consumed among U.S. adults.

  9. Analysis of Alternatives for Risk Assessment Methodologies and Tools

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nachtigal, Noel M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). System Analytics; Fruetel, Julia A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Systems Research and Analysis; Gleason, Nathaniel J. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Systems Research and Analysis; Helms, Jovana [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Systems Research and Analysis; Imbro, Dennis Raymond [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Systems Research and Analysis; Sumner, Matthew C. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Systems Research and Analysis

    2013-10-01

    The purpose of this document is to provide a basic overview and understanding of risk assessment methodologies and tools from the literature and to assess the suitability of these methodologies and tools for cyber risk assessment. Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) performed this review in support of risk modeling activities performed for the Stakeholder Engagement and Cyber Infrastructure Resilience (SECIR) division of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Office of Cybersecurity and Communications (CS&C). The set of methodologies and tools covered in this document is not intended to be exhaustive; instead, it focuses on those that are commonly used in the risk assessment community. The classification of methodologies and tools was performed by a group of analysts with experience in risk analysis and cybersecurity, and the resulting analysis of alternatives has been tailored to address the needs of a cyber risk assessment.

  10. A vegetarian dietary pattern as a nutrient-dense approach to weight management: an analysis of the national health and nutrition examination survey 1999-2004.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farmer, Bonnie; Larson, Brian T; Fulgoni, Victor L; Rainville, Alice J; Liepa, George U

    2011-06-01

    Population-based studies have shown that vegetarians have lower body mass index than nonvegetarians, suggesting that vegetarian diet plans may be an approach for weight management. However, a perception exists that vegetarian diets are deficient in certain nutrients. To compare dietary quality of vegetarians, nonvegetarians, and dieters, and to test the hypothesis that a vegetarian diet would not compromise nutrient intake when used to manage body weight. Cross-sectional analysis of National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (1999-2004) dietary and anthropometric data. Diet quality was determined using United States Department of Agriculture's Healthy Eating Index 2005. Participants included adults aged 19 years and older, excluding pregnant and lactating women (N = 13,292). Lacto-ovo vegetarian diets were portrayed by intakes of participants who did not eat meat, poultry, or fish on the day of the survey (n = 851). Weight-loss diets were portrayed by intakes of participants who consumed 500 kcal less than their estimated energy requirements (n = 4,635). Mean nutrient intakes and body mass indexes were adjusted for energy, sex, and ethnicity. Using analysis of variance, all vegetarians were compared to all nonvegetarians, dieting vegetarians to dieting nonvegetarians, and nondieting vegetarians to nondieting nonvegetarians. Mean intakes of fiber, vitamins A, C, and E, thiamin, riboflavin, folate, calcium, magnesium, and iron were higher for all vegetarians than for all nonvegetarians. Although vegetarian intakes of vitamin E, vitamin A, and magnesium exceeded that of nonvegetarians (8.3 ± 0.3 vs 7.0 ± 0.1 mg; 718 ± 28 vs 603 ± 10 μg; 322 ± 5 vs 281 ± 2 mg), both groups had intakes that were less than desired. The Healthy Eating Index score did not differ for all vegetarians compared to all nonvegetarians (50.5 ± 0.88 vs 50.1 ± 0.33, P = 0.6). These findings suggest that vegetarian diets are nutrient dense, consistent with dietary guidelines, and

  11. Work program analysis - defining the capability/risk plan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hrinivich, W.A.

    2004-01-01

    Bruce Power has developed and implemented an analysis methodology (Work Program Analysis) to assess and address corporate business risk associated with work group capability. Work Program Analysis is proving to be an excellent tool for identifying and supporting key business decisions facing the line and senior management at Bruce Power. The following describes the methodology, its application and the results achieved. (author)

  12. Urban flooding and health risk analysis by use of quantitative microbial risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Signe Tanja

    D thesis is to identify the limitations and possibilities for optimising microbial risk assessments of urban flooding through more evidence-based solutions, including quantitative microbial data and hydrodynamic water quality models. The focus falls especially on the problem of data needs and the causes......, but also when wading through a flooded area. The results in this thesis have brought microbial risk assessments one step closer to more uniform and repeatable risk analysis by using actual and relevant measured data and hydrodynamic water quality models to estimate the risk from flooding caused...... are expected to increase in the future. To ensure public health during extreme rainfall, solutions are needed, but limited knowledge on microbial water quality, and related health risks, makes it difficult to implement microbial risk analysis as a part of the basis for decision making. The main aim of this Ph...

  13. Environmental risk analysis for nanomaterials: Review and evaluation of frameworks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Grieger, Khara Deanne; Linkov, Igor; Hansen, Steffen Foss

    2012-01-01

    to occupational settings with minor environmental considerations, and most have not been thoroughly tested on a wide range of NM. Care should also be taken when selecting the most appropriate risk analysis strategy for a given risk context. Given this, we recommend a multi-faceted approach to assess...... the environmental risks of NM as well as increased applications and testing of the proposed frameworks for different NM....

  14. HVAC fault tree analysis for WIPP integrated risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kirby, P.; Iacovino, J.

    1990-01-01

    In order to evaluate the public health risk from operation of the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) due to potential radioactive releases, a probabilistic risk assessment of waste handling operations was conducted. One major aspect of this risk assessment involved fault tree analysis of the plant heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems, which comprise the final barrier between waste handling operations and the environment. 1 refs., 1 tab

  15. WE-B-BRC-02: Risk Analysis and Incident Learning

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fraass, B. [Cedars Sinai Medical Center (United States)

    2016-06-15

    Prospective quality management techniques, long used by engineering and industry, have become a growing aspect of efforts to improve quality management and safety in healthcare. These techniques are of particular interest to medical physics as scope and complexity of clinical practice continue to grow, thus making the prescriptive methods we have used harder to apply and potentially less effective for our interconnected and highly complex healthcare enterprise, especially in imaging and radiation oncology. An essential part of most prospective methods is the need to assess the various risks associated with problems, failures, errors, and design flaws in our systems. We therefore begin with an overview of risk assessment methodologies used in healthcare and industry and discuss their strengths and weaknesses. The rationale for use of process mapping, failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) and fault tree analysis (FTA) by TG-100 will be described, as well as suggestions for the way forward. This is followed by discussion of radiation oncology specific risk assessment strategies and issues, including the TG-100 effort to evaluate IMRT and other ways to think about risk in the context of radiotherapy. Incident learning systems, local as well as the ASTRO/AAPM ROILS system, can also be useful in the risk assessment process. Finally, risk in the context of medical imaging will be discussed. Radiation (and other) safety considerations, as well as lack of quality and certainty all contribute to the potential risks associated with suboptimal imaging. The goal of this session is to summarize a wide variety of risk analysis methods and issues to give the medical physicist access to tools which can better define risks (and their importance) which we work to mitigate with both prescriptive and prospective risk-based quality management methods. Learning Objectives: Description of risk assessment methodologies used in healthcare and industry Discussion of radiation oncology

  16. WE-B-BRC-02: Risk Analysis and Incident Learning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fraass, B.

    2016-01-01

    Prospective quality management techniques, long used by engineering and industry, have become a growing aspect of efforts to improve quality management and safety in healthcare. These techniques are of particular interest to medical physics as scope and complexity of clinical practice continue to grow, thus making the prescriptive methods we have used harder to apply and potentially less effective for our interconnected and highly complex healthcare enterprise, especially in imaging and radiation oncology. An essential part of most prospective methods is the need to assess the various risks associated with problems, failures, errors, and design flaws in our systems. We therefore begin with an overview of risk assessment methodologies used in healthcare and industry and discuss their strengths and weaknesses. The rationale for use of process mapping, failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) and fault tree analysis (FTA) by TG-100 will be described, as well as suggestions for the way forward. This is followed by discussion of radiation oncology specific risk assessment strategies and issues, including the TG-100 effort to evaluate IMRT and other ways to think about risk in the context of radiotherapy. Incident learning systems, local as well as the ASTRO/AAPM ROILS system, can also be useful in the risk assessment process. Finally, risk in the context of medical imaging will be discussed. Radiation (and other) safety considerations, as well as lack of quality and certainty all contribute to the potential risks associated with suboptimal imaging. The goal of this session is to summarize a wide variety of risk analysis methods and issues to give the medical physicist access to tools which can better define risks (and their importance) which we work to mitigate with both prescriptive and prospective risk-based quality management methods. Learning Objectives: Description of risk assessment methodologies used in healthcare and industry Discussion of radiation oncology

  17. Applying Multi-Criteria Analysis Methods for Fire Risk Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pushkina Julia

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to prove the application of multi-criteria analysis methods for optimisation of fire risk identification and assessment process. The object of this research is fire risk and risk assessment. The subject of the research is studying the application of analytic hierarchy process for modelling and influence assessment of various fire risk factors. Results of research conducted by the authors can be used by insurance companies to perform the detailed assessment of fire risks on the object and to calculate a risk extra charge to an insurance premium; by the state supervisory institutions to determine the compliance of a condition of object with requirements of regulations; by real state owners and investors to carry out actions for decrease in degree of fire risks and minimisation of possible losses.

  18. DYNAMIC HYBRIDS UNDER SOLVENCY II: RISK ANALYSIS AND MODIFICATION POSSIBILITIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christian Maier

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available In this study, we investigate the new and standardized European system of supervisory called Solvency II. In essence, asymmetric distribution of information between policyholder and insurer triggered this new regulation which aims at better protecting policyholders. Its three-pillar model is about to challenge both, insurers as well as policyholders. The first pillar includes quantitative aspects, the second pillar contains qualitative aspects and the third pillar comprises market transparency and reporting obligations. Underwriting risks, the default risk of a bank and market risks can be identified for the dynamic hybrid. Solvency II covers all these risks in the first pillar and insurers shall deposit sufficient risk-bearing capital. In our analysis, we first identify the dynamic hybrid specific risks under the Solvency II regime und then develop product modifications to reduce this risk.

  19. Risk and safety analysis of nuclear systems

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Lee, John C; McCormick, Norman J

    2011-01-01

    ...), and failure modes of systems. All of this material is general enough that it could be used in non-nuclear applications, although there is an emphasis placed on the analysis of nuclear systems...

  20. The development of a 3D risk analysis method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    I, Yet-Pole; Cheng, Te-Lung

    2008-05-01

    Much attention has been paid to the quantitative risk analysis (QRA) research in recent years due to more and more severe disasters that have happened in the process industries. Owing to its calculation complexity, very few software, such as SAFETI, can really make the risk presentation meet the practice requirements. However, the traditional risk presentation method, like the individual risk contour in SAFETI, is mainly based on the consequence analysis results of dispersion modeling, which usually assumes that the vapor cloud disperses over a constant ground roughness on a flat terrain with no obstructions and concentration fluctuations, which is quite different from the real situations of a chemical process plant. All these models usually over-predict the hazardous regions in order to maintain their conservativeness, which also increases the uncertainty of the simulation results. On the other hand, a more rigorous model such as the computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model can resolve the previous limitations; however, it cannot resolve the complexity of risk calculations. In this research, a conceptual three-dimensional (3D) risk calculation method was proposed via the combination of results of a series of CFD simulations with some post-processing procedures to obtain the 3D individual risk iso-surfaces. It is believed that such technique will not only be limited to risk analysis at ground level, but also be extended into aerial, submarine, or space risk analyses in the near future.

  1. Assessment of major nuclear technologies with decision and risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Winterfeldt, D. von

    1995-01-01

    Selecting technologies for major nuclear programs involves several complexities, including multiple stakeholders, multiple conflicting objectives, uncertainties, and risk. In addition, the programmatic risks related to the schedule, cost, and performance of these technologies often become major issues in the selection process. This paper describes a decision analysis approach for addressing these complexities in a logical manner

  2. The JPL Cost Risk Analysis Approach that Incorporates Engineering Realism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harmon, Corey C.; Warfield, Keith R.; Rosenberg, Leigh S.

    2006-01-01

    This paper discusses the JPL Cost Engineering Group (CEG) cost risk analysis approach that accounts for all three types of cost risk. It will also describe the evaluation of historical cost data upon which this method is based. This investigation is essential in developing a method that is rooted in engineering realism and produces credible, dependable results to aid decision makers.

  3. The use of current risk analysis tools evaluated towards preventing external domino accidents

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Reniers, Genserik L L; Dullaert, W.; Ale, B. J.M.; Soudan, K.

    Risk analysis is an essential tool for company safety policy. Risk analysis consists of identifying and evaluating all possible risks. The efficiency of risk analysis tools depends on the rigueur of identifying and evaluating all possible risks. The diversity in risk analysis procedures is such that

  4. A comparison of nutrient density scores for 100% fruit juices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rampersaud, G C

    2007-05-01

    The 2005 Dietary Guidelines for Americans recommend that consumers choose a variety of nutrient-dense foods. Nutrient density is usually defined as the quantity of nutrients per calorie. Food and nutrition professionals should be aware of the concept of nutrient density, how it might be quantified, and its potential application in food labeling and dietary guidance. This article presents the concept of a nutrient density score and compares nutrient density scores for various 100% fruit juices. One hundred percent fruit juices are popular beverages in the United States, and although they can provide concentrated sources of a variety of nutrients, they can differ considerably in their nutrient profiles. Six methodologies were used to quantify nutrient density and 7 100% fruit juices were included in the analysis: apple, grape, pink grapefruit, white grapefruit, orange, pineapple, and prune. Food composition data were obtained from the USDA National Nutrient Database for Standard Reference, Release 18. Application of the methods resulted in nutrient density scores with a range of values and magnitudes. The relative scores indicated that citrus juices, particularly pink grapefruit and orange juice, were more nutrient dense compared to the other nonfortified 100% juices included in the analysis. Although the methods differed, the relative ranking of the juices based on nutrient density score was similar for each method. Issues to be addressed regarding the development and application of a nutrient density score include those related to food fortification, nutrient bioavailability, and consumer education and behavior.

  5. Simulation Approach to Mission Risk and Reliability Analysis, Phase I

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — It is proposed to develop and demonstrate an integrated total-system risk and reliability analysis approach that is based on dynamic, probabilistic simulation. This...

  6. Risk and train control : a framework for analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    2001-01-01

    This report develops and demonstrates a framework for examining the effects of various train control strategies on some of the major risks of railroad operations. Analysis of hypothetical 1200-mile corridor identified the main factors that increase r...

  7. Vulnerability and Risk Analysis Program: Overview of Assessment Methodology

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    2001-01-01

    .... Over the last three years, a team of national laboratory experts, working in partnership with the energy industry, has successfully applied the methodology as part of OCIP's Vulnerability and Risk Analysis Program (VRAP...

  8. Risk and Interdependencies in Critical Infrastructures A Guideline for Analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Utne, Ingrid; Vatn, Jørn

    2012-01-01

    Today’s society is completely dependent on critical networks such as  water supply, sewage, electricity, ICT and transportation. Risk and vulnerability analyses are needed to grasp the impact of threats and hazards. However, these become quite complex as there are strong interdependencies both within and between infrastructure systems. Risk and Interdependencies in Critical Infrastructures: A  guideline for analysis provides methods for analyzing risks and interdependencies of critical infrastructures.  A number of analysis approaches are described and are adapted to each of these infrastructures. Various approaches are also revised, and all are supported by several examples and illustrations. Particular emphasis is given to the analysis of various interdependencies that often exist between the infrastructures.  Risk and Interdependencies in Critical Infrastructures: A  guideline for analysis provides a good tool to identify the hazards that are threatening your infrastructures, and will enhance the un...

  9. Spent fuel pool risk analysis for the Dukovany NPP

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hust' ak, S.; Jaros, M.; Kubicek, J. [UJV Rez, a.s., Husinec-Rez (Czech Republic)

    2013-07-01

    UJV Rez, a.s. maintains a Living Probabilistic Safety Assessment (Living PSA) program for Dukovany Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) in the Czech Republic. This project has been established as a framework for activities related to risk assessment and to support for risk-informed decision making at this plant. The most extensively used PSA application at Dukovany NPP is risk monitoring of instantaneous (point-in-time) risk during plant operation, especially for the purpose of configuration risk management during plant scheduled outages to avoid risk significant configurations. The scope of PSA for Dukovany NPP includes also determination of a risk contribution from spent fuel pool (SFP) operation to provide recommendations for the prevention and mitigation of SFP accidents and to be applicable for configuration risk management. This paper describes the analysis of internal initiating events (IEs) in PSA for Dukovany NPP, which can contribute to the risk from SFP operation. The analysis of those IEs was done more thoroughly in the PSA for Dukovany NPP in order to be used in instantaneous risk monitoring. (orig.)

  10. Common pitfalls in statistical analysis: Absolute risk reduction, relative risk reduction, and number needed to treat

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ranganathan, Priya; Pramesh, C. S.; Aggarwal, Rakesh

    2016-01-01

    In the previous article in this series on common pitfalls in statistical analysis, we looked at the difference between risk and odds. Risk, which refers to the probability of occurrence of an event or outcome, can be defined in absolute or relative terms. Understanding what these measures represent is essential for the accurate interpretation of study results. PMID:26952180

  11. H15-42: CFD analysis for risk analysis in urban environments - Tilburg city case study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hulsbosch-Dam, C.; Mack, A.; Ratingen, S. van; Rosmuller, N.; Trijssenaar, I.

    2013-01-01

    For risk analysis studies, relatively simple dispersion models are generally applied, such as Gaussian dispersion and dense gas dispersion models. For rail transport risk analyses in the Netherlands, fixed consequence distances are applied for various standard scenarios of hazardous materials

  12. Instability risk analysis and risk assessment system establishment of underground storage caverns in bedded salt rock

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jing, Wenjun; Zhao, Yan

    2018-02-01

    Stability is an important part of geotechnical engineering research. The operating experiences of underground storage caverns in salt rock all around the world show that the stability of the caverns is the key problem of safe operation. Currently, the combination of theoretical analysis and numerical simulation are the mainly adopts method of reserve stability analysis. This paper introduces the concept of risk into the stability analysis of underground geotechnical structure, and studies the instability of underground storage cavern in salt rock from the perspective of risk analysis. Firstly, the definition and classification of cavern instability risk is proposed, and the damage mechanism is analyzed from the mechanical angle. Then the main stability evaluating indicators of cavern instability risk are proposed, and an evaluation method of cavern instability risk is put forward. Finally, the established cavern instability risk assessment system is applied to the analysis and prediction of cavern instability risk after 30 years of operation in a proposed storage cavern group in the Huai’an salt mine. This research can provide a useful theoretical base for the safe operation and management of underground storage caverns in salt rock.

  13. Environmental risk analysis of hazardous material rail transportation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saat, Mohd Rapik; Werth, Charles J.; Schaeffer, David; Yoon, Hongkyu; Barkan, Christopher P.L.

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Comprehensive, nationwide risk assessment of hazardous material rail transportation. • Application of a novel environmental (i.e. soil and groundwater) consequence model. • Cleanup cost and total shipment distance are the most significant risk factors. • Annual risk varies from $20,000 to $560,000 for different products. • Provides information on the risk cost associated with specific product shipments. -- Abstract: An important aspect of railroad environmental risk management involves tank car transportation of hazardous materials. This paper describes a quantitative, environmental risk analysis of rail transportation of a group of light, non-aqueous-phase liquid (LNAPL) chemicals commonly transported by rail in North America. The Hazardous Materials Transportation Environmental Consequence Model (HMTECM) was used in conjunction with a geographic information system (GIS) analysis of environmental characteristics to develop probabilistic estimates of exposure to different spill scenarios along the North American rail network. The risk analysis incorporated the estimated clean-up cost developed using the HMTECM, route-specific probability distributions of soil type and depth to groundwater, annual traffic volume, railcar accident rate, and tank car safety features, to estimate the nationwide annual risk of transporting each product. The annual risk per car-mile (car-km) and per ton-mile (ton-km) was also calculated to enable comparison between chemicals and to provide information on the risk cost associated with shipments of these products. The analysis and the methodology provide a quantitative approach that will enable more effective management of the environmental risk of transporting hazardous materials

  14. Environmental risk analysis of hazardous material rail transportation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Saat, Mohd Rapik, E-mail: mohdsaat@illinois.edu [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, 1243 Newmark Civil Engineering Laboratory, 205 North Mathews Avenue, Urbana, IL 61801 (United States); Werth, Charles J.; Schaeffer, David [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, 1243 Newmark Civil Engineering Laboratory, 205 North Mathews Avenue, Urbana, IL 61801 (United States); Yoon, Hongkyu [Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM 87123 (United States); Barkan, Christopher P.L. [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, 1243 Newmark Civil Engineering Laboratory, 205 North Mathews Avenue, Urbana, IL 61801 (United States)

    2014-01-15

    Highlights: • Comprehensive, nationwide risk assessment of hazardous material rail transportation. • Application of a novel environmental (i.e. soil and groundwater) consequence model. • Cleanup cost and total shipment distance are the most significant risk factors. • Annual risk varies from $20,000 to $560,000 for different products. • Provides information on the risk cost associated with specific product shipments. -- Abstract: An important aspect of railroad environmental risk management involves tank car transportation of hazardous materials. This paper describes a quantitative, environmental risk analysis of rail transportation of a group of light, non-aqueous-phase liquid (LNAPL) chemicals commonly transported by rail in North America. The Hazardous Materials Transportation Environmental Consequence Model (HMTECM) was used in conjunction with a geographic information system (GIS) analysis of environmental characteristics to develop probabilistic estimates of exposure to different spill scenarios along the North American rail network. The risk analysis incorporated the estimated clean-up cost developed using the HMTECM, route-specific probability distributions of soil type and depth to groundwater, annual traffic volume, railcar accident rate, and tank car safety features, to estimate the nationwide annual risk of transporting each product. The annual risk per car-mile (car-km) and per ton-mile (ton-km) was also calculated to enable comparison between chemicals and to provide information on the risk cost associated with shipments of these products. The analysis and the methodology provide a quantitative approach that will enable more effective management of the environmental risk of transporting hazardous materials.

  15. Probabilistic risk analysis of Angra-1 reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Spivak, R.C.; Collussi, I.; Silva, M.C. da; Onusic Junior, J.

    1986-01-01

    The first phase of probabilistic study for safety analysis and operational analysis of Angra-1 reactor is presented. The study objectives and uses are: to support decisions about safety problems; to identify operational and/or project failures; to amplify operator qualification tests to include accidents in addition to project base; to provide informations to be used in development and/or review of operation procedures in emergency, test and maintenance procedures; to obtain experience for data collection about abnormal accurences; utilization of study results for training operators; and training of evaluation and reliability techniques for the personnel of CNEN and FURNAS. (M.C.K.) [pt

  16. ANALYSIS OF RISK FACTORS ECTOPIC PREGNANCY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Budi Santoso

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Ectopic pregnancy is a pregnancy with extrauterine implantation. This situation is gynecologic emergency that contributes to maternal mortality. Therefore, early recognition, based on identification of the causes of ectopic pregnancy risk factors, is needed. Methods: The design descriptive observational. The samples were pregnant women who had ectopic pregnancy at Maternity Room, Emergency Unit, Dr. Soetomo Hospital, Surabaya, from 1 July 2008 to 1 July 2010. Sampling technique was total sampling using medical records. Result: Patients with ectopic pregnancy were 99 individuals out of 2090 pregnant women who searched for treatment in Dr. Soetomo Hospital. However, only 29 patients were accompanied with traceable risk factors. Discussion:. Most ectopic pregnancies were in the age group of 26-30 years, comprising 32 patients (32.32%, then in age groups of 31–35 years as many as 25 patients (25.25%, 18 patients in age group 21–25 years (18.18%, 17 patients in age group 36–40 years (17.17%, 4 patients in age group 41 years and more (4.04%, and the least was in age group of 16–20 years with 3 patients (3.03%. A total of 12 patients with ectopic pregnancy (41.38% had experience of abortion and 6 patients (20.69% each in groups of patients with ectopic pregnancy who used family planning, in those who used family planning as well as ectopic pregnancy patients with history of surgery. There were 2 patients (6.90% of the group of patients ectopic pregnancy who had history of surgery and history of abortion. The incidence rate of ectopic pregnancy was 4.73%, mostly in the second gravidity (34.34%, whereas the nulliparous have the highest prevalence of 39.39%. Acquired risk factors, i.e. history of operations was 10.34%, patients with family planning 20.69%, patients with history of abortion 41.38%, patients with history of abortion and operation 6.90% patients with family and history of abortion was 20.69%.

  17. Quantitative risk analysis in two pipelines operated by TRANSPETRO

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Garcia, Claudio B. [PETROBRAS Transporte S/A (TRANSPETRO), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Pinho, Edson [Universidade Federal Rural do Rio de Janeiro (UFRRJ), Seropedica, RJ (Brazil); Bittencourt, Euclides [Centro Universitario FIB, Salvador , BA (Brazil)

    2009-07-01

    Transportation risk analysis techniques were used to study two pipelines operated by TRANSPETRO. The Pipeline A is for the simultaneous transportation of diesel, gasoline and LPG and comprises three parts, all of them crossing rural areas. The Pipeline B is for oil transportation and one of its ends is located in an area of a high density population. Both pipelines had their risk studied using the PHAST RISK{sup R} software and the individual risk measures, the only considered measures for license purposes for this type of studies, presented level far below the maximum tolerable levels considered. (author)

  18. THE ANALYSIS OF RISK MANAGEMENT PROCESS WITHIN MANAGEMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ROMANESCU MARCEL LAURENTIU

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available This article highlights the risk analysis within management, focusing on how a company could practicaly integrate the risks management in the existing leading process. Subsequently, it is exemplified the way of manage risk effectively, which gives numerous advantages to all firms, including improving their decision-making process. All these lead to the conclusion that the degree of risk specific to companies is very high, but if managers make the best decisions then it can diminish it and all business activitiy and its income are not influenced by factors that could disturb in a negative way .

  19. CD-ROM nutrient analysis database assists self-monitoring behavior of active duty Air Force personnel receiving nutrition counseling for weight loss.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heetderks-Cox, M J; Alford, B B; Bednar, C M; Heiss, C J; Tauai, L A; Edgren, K K

    2001-09-01

    This study observed the effect of using a computerized vs manual method of self-monitoring among Air Force personnel receiving nutrition counseling for weight loss. Subjects who enrolled during the first 2 weeks of the 4-week recruitment period completed food records for 6 weeks using a CD-ROM nutrient database (intervention group) whereas those who enrolled during the last 2 weeks used a food record booklet (comparison group). Of the 42 subjects (n = 23 intervention group and n = 19 comparison group), only 113 intervention and 11 comparison group subjects (57% of study enrollees) submitted at least 1 food record during the study and were included in the analysis, which included review of pre- and poststudy questionnaires, food records, and focus group data. There were no significant differences between the number of days per week documented or average number of items recorded daily. All 9 intervention as compared to 2 comparison group subjects who completed a poststudy questionnaire searched for lower-energy and lower-fat items and reported changing their dietary intake as a result. All intervention group subjects who participated in a focus group (n=6) had favorable comments about using the CD-ROM for monitoring and changing eating habits, indicating that it is a beneficial self-monitoring tool. Participants enjoyed the immediate dietary feedback, and computerized food records may be easier to interpret by nutrition counselors. A number of computerized nutrient databases are available to assist patients and consumers in managing nutritional concerns.

  20. 100% Orange juice consumption is associated with better diet quality, improved nutrient adequacy, decreased risk for obesity, and improved biomarkers of health in adults: National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, 2003-2006

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O’Neil Carol E

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Consumption of 100% orange juice (OJ has been positively associated with nutrient adequacy and diet quality, with no increased risk of overweight/obesity in children; however, no one has examined these factors in adults. The purpose of this study was to examine the association of 100% OJ consumption with nutrient adequacy, diet quality, and risk factors for metabolic syndrome (MetS in a nationally representative sample of adults. Methods Data from adults 19+ years of age (n = 8,861 participating in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2003-2006 were used. The National Cancer Institute method was used to estimate the usual intake (UI of 100% OJ consumption, selected nutrients, and food groups. Percentages of the population below the Estimated Average Requirement (EAR or above the Adequate Intake (AI were determined. Diet quality was measured by the Healthy Eating Index-2005 (HEI-2005. Covariate adjusted logistic regression was used to determine if consumers had a lower odds ratio of being overweight or obese or having risk factors of MetS or MetS. Results Usual per capita intake of 100% OJ was 50.3 ml/d. Among consumers (n = 2,310; 23.8%, UI was 210.0 ml/d. Compared to non-consumers, consumers had a higher (p  Conclusion The results suggest that moderate consumption of 100% OJ should be encouraged to help individuals meet the USDA daily recommendation for fruit intake and as a component of a healthy diet.

  1. Bayesian Inference for NASA Probabilistic Risk and Reliability Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dezfuli, Homayoon; Kelly, Dana; Smith, Curtis; Vedros, Kurt; Galyean, William

    2009-01-01

    This document, Bayesian Inference for NASA Probabilistic Risk and Reliability Analysis, is intended to provide guidelines for the collection and evaluation of risk and reliability-related data. It is aimed at scientists and engineers familiar with risk and reliability methods and provides a hands-on approach to the investigation and application of a variety of risk and reliability data assessment methods, tools, and techniques. This document provides both: A broad perspective on data analysis collection and evaluation issues. A narrow focus on the methods to implement a comprehensive information repository. The topics addressed herein cover the fundamentals of how data and information are to be used in risk and reliability analysis models and their potential role in decision making. Understanding these topics is essential to attaining a risk informed decision making environment that is being sought by NASA requirements and procedures such as 8000.4 (Agency Risk Management Procedural Requirements), NPR 8705.05 (Probabilistic Risk Assessment Procedures for NASA Programs and Projects), and the System Safety requirements of NPR 8715.3 (NASA General Safety Program Requirements).

  2. Risk analysis of analytical validations by probabilistic modification of FMEA

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Barends, D.M.; Oldenhof, M.T.; Vredenbregt, M.J.

    2012-01-01

    Risk analysis is a valuable addition to validation of an analytical chemistry process, enabling not only detecting technical risks, but also risks related to human failures. Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) can be applied, using a categorical risk scoring of the occurrence, detection...... and severity of failure modes, and calculating the Risk Priority Number (RPN) to select failure modes for correction. We propose a probabilistic modification of FMEA, replacing the categorical scoring of occurrence and detection by their estimated relative frequency and maintaining the categorical scoring...... of severity. In an example, the results of traditional FMEA of a Near Infrared (NIR) analytical procedure used for the screening of suspected counterfeited tablets are re-interpretated by this probabilistic modification of FMEA. Using this probabilistic modification of FMEA, the frequency of occurrence...

  3. [Survival analysis with competing risks: estimating failure probability].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Llorca, Javier; Delgado-Rodríguez, Miguel

    2004-01-01

    To show the impact of competing risks of death on survival analysis. We provide an example of survival time without chronic rejection after heart transplantation, where death before rejection acts as a competing risk. Using a computer simulation, we compare the Kaplan-Meier estimator and the multiple decrement model. The Kaplan-Meier method overestimated the probability of rejection. Next, we illustrate the use of the multiple decrement model to analyze secondary end points (in our example: death after rejection). Finally, we discuss Kaplan-Meier assumptions and why they fail in the presence of competing risks. Survival analysis should be adjusted for competing risks of death to avoid overestimation of the risk of rejection produced with the Kaplan-Meier method.

  4. Risk-benefit analysis and public policy: a bibliography

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Clark, E.M.; Van Horn, A.J.

    1976-11-01

    Risk-benefit analysis has been implicitly practiced whenever decision-makers are confronted with decisions involving risks to life, health, or to the environment. Various methodologies have been developed to evaluate relevant criteria and to aid in assessing the impacts of alternative projects. Among these have been cost-benefit analysis, which has been widely used for project evaluation. However, in many cases it has been difficult to assign dollar costs to those criteria involving risks and benefits which are not now assigned explicit monetary values in our economic system. Hence, risk-benefit analysis has evolved to become more than merely an extension of cost-benefit analysis, and many methods have been applied to examine the trade-offs between risks and benefits. In addition, new scientific and statistical techniques have been developed for assessing current and future risks. The 950 references included in this bibliography are meant to suggest the breadth of those methodologies which have been applied to decisions involving risk.

  5. Risk-benefit analysis and public policy: a bibliography

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clark, E.M.; Van Horn, A.J.

    1976-11-01

    Risk-benefit analysis has been implicitly practiced whenever decision-makers are confronted with decisions involving risks to life, health, or to the environment. Various methodologies have been developed to evaluate relevant criteria and to aid in assessing the impacts of alternative projects. Among these have been cost-benefit analysis, which has been widely used for project evaluation. However, in many cases it has been difficult to assign dollar costs to those criteria involving risks and benefits which are not now assigned explicit monetary values in our economic system. Hence, risk-benefit analysis has evolved to become more than merely an extension of cost-benefit analysis, and many methods have been applied to examine the trade-offs between risks and benefits. In addition, new scientific and statistical techniques have been developed for assessing current and future risks. The 950 references included in this bibliography are meant to suggest the breadth of those methodologies which have been applied to decisions involving risk

  6. Analysis of labour risks in the Spanish industrial aerospace sector

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    JUAN LAGUARDIA

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT Labour risk prevention is an activity integrated within Safety and Hygiene at Work in Spain. In 2003, the Electronic Declaration for Accidents at Work, Delt@ (DELTA was introduced. The industrial aerospace sector is subject to various risks. Our objective is to analyse the Spanish Industrial Aerospace Sector (SIAS using the ACSOM methodology to assess its labour risks and to prioritise preventive actions. The SIAS and the Services Subsector (SS were created and the relevant accident rate data were obtained. The ACSOM method was applied through double contrast (deviation and translocation of the SIAS or SS risk polygon with the considered pattern, accidents from all sectors (ACSOM G or the SIAS. A list of risks was obtained, ordered by action phases. In the SIAS vs. ACSOM G analysis, radiation risks were the worst, followed by overstrains. Accidents caused by living beings were also significant in the SS vs. SIAE, which will be able to be used to improve Risk Prevention. Radiation is the most significant risk in the SIAS and the SS. Preventive actions will be primary and secondary. ACSOM has shown itself to be a valid tool for the analysis of labour risks.

  7. Analysis of labour risks in the Spanish industrial aerospace sector.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laguardia, Juan; Rubio, Emilio; Garcia, Ana; Garcia-Foncillas, Rafael

    2016-01-01

    Labour risk prevention is an activity integrated within Safety and Hygiene at Work in Spain. In 2003, the Electronic Declaration for Accidents at Work, Delt@ (DELTA) was introduced. The industrial aerospace sector is subject to various risks. Our objective is to analyse the Spanish Industrial Aerospace Sector (SIAS) using the ACSOM methodology to assess its labour risks and to prioritise preventive actions. The SIAS and the Services Subsector (SS) were created and the relevant accident rate data were obtained. The ACSOM method was applied through double contrast (deviation and translocation) of the SIAS or SS risk polygon with the considered pattern, accidents from all sectors (ACSOM G) or the SIAS. A list of risks was obtained, ordered by action phases. In the SIAS vs. ACSOM G analysis, radiation risks were the worst, followed by overstrains. Accidents caused by living beings were also significant in the SS vs. SIAE, which will be able to be used to improve Risk Prevention. Radiation is the most significant risk in the SIAS and the SS. Preventive actions will be primary and secondary. ACSOM has shown itself to be a valid tool for the analysis of labour risks.

  8. APPROPRIATE ALLOCATION OF CONTINGENCY USING RISK ANALYSIS METHODOLOGY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andi Andi

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available Many cost overruns in the world of construction are attributable to either unforeseen events or foreseen events for which uncertainty was not appropriately accommodated. It is argued that a significant improvement to project management performance may result from greater attention to the process of analyzing project risks. The objective of this paper is to propose a risk analysis methodology for appropriate allocation of contingency in project cost estimation. In the first step, project risks will be identified. Influence diagramming technique is employed to identify and to show how the risks affect the project cost elements and also the relationships among the risks themselves. The second step is to assess the project costs with regards to the risks under consideration. Using a linguistic approach, the degree of uncertainty of identified project risks is assessed and quantified. The problem of dependency between risks is taken into consideration during this analysis. For the final step, as the main purpose of this paper, a method for allocating appropriate contingency is presented. Two types of contingencies, i.e. project contingency and management reserve are proposed to accommodate the risks. An illustrative example is presented at the end to show the application of the methodology.

  9. Structural reliability analysis and seismic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hwang, H.; Reich, M.; Shinozuka, M.

    1984-01-01

    This paper presents a reliability analysis method for safety evaluation of nuclear structures. By utilizing this method, it is possible to estimate the limit state probability in the lifetime of structures and to generate analytically the fragility curves for PRA studies. The earthquake ground acceleration, in this approach, is represented by a segment of stationary Gaussian process with a zero mean and a Kanai-Tajimi Spectrum. All possible seismic hazard at a site represented by a hazard curve is also taken into consideration. Furthermore, the limit state of a structure is analytically defined and the corresponding limit state surface is then established. Finally, the fragility curve is generated and the limit state probability is evaluated. In this paper, using a realistic reinforced concrete containment as an example, results of the reliability analysis of the containment subjected to dead load, live load and ground earthquake acceleration are presented and a fragility curve for PRA studies is also constructed

  10. Methodology for flood risk analysis for nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wagner, D.P.; Casada, M.L.; Fussell, J.B.

    1984-01-01

    The methodology for flood risk analysis described here addresses the effects of a flood on nuclear power plant safety systems. Combining the results of this method with the probability of a flood allows the effects of flooding to be included in a probabilistic risk assessment. The five-step methodology includes accident sequence screening to focus the detailed analysis efforts on the accident sequences that are significantly affected by a flood event. The quantitative results include the flood's contribution to system failure probability, accident sequence occurrence frequency and consequence category occurrence frequency. The analysis can be added to existing risk assessments without a significant loss in efficiency. The results of two example applications show the usefulness of the methodology. Both examples rely on the Reactor Safety Study for the required risk assessment inputs and present changes in the Reactor Safety Study results as a function of flood probability

  11. Methodology for risk-based analysis of technical specifications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vesely, W.E.; Gaertner, J.P.; Wagner, D.P.

    1985-01-01

    Part of the effort by EPRI to apply probabilistic risk assessment methods and results to the solution of utility problems involves the investigation of methods for risk-based analysis of technical specifications. The culmination of this investigation is the SOCRATES computer code developed by Battelle's Columbus Laboratories to assist in the evaluation of technical specifications of nuclear power plants. The program is designed to use information found in PRAs to re-evaluate risk for changes in component allowed outage times (AOTs) and surveillance test intervals (STIs). The SOCRATES program is a unique and important tool for technical specification evaluations. The detailed component unavailability model allows a detailed analysis of AOT and STI contributions to risk. Explicit equations allow fast and inexpensive calculations. Because the code is designed to accept ranges of parameters and to save results of calculations that do not change during the analysis, sensitivity studies are efficiently performed and results are clearly displayed

  12. Maritime transportation risk analysis: Review and analysis in light of some foundational issues

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goerlandt, Floris; Montewka, Jakub

    2015-01-01

    Many methods and applications for maritime transportation risk analysis have been presented in the literature. In parallel, there is a recent focus on foundational issues in risk analysis, with calls for intensified research on fundamental concepts and principles underlying the scientific field. This paper presents a review and analysis of risk definitions, perspectives and scientific approaches to risk analysis found in the maritime transportation application area, focusing on applications addressing accidental risk of shipping in a sea area. For this purpose, a classification of risk definitions, an overview of elements in risk perspectives and a classification of approaches to risk analysis science are applied. Results reveal that in the application area, risk is strongly tied to probability, both in definitions and perspectives, while alternative views exist. A diffuse situation is also found concerning the scientific approach to risk analysis, with realist, proceduralist and constructivist foundations co-existing. Realist approaches dominate the application area. Very few applications systematically account for uncertainty, neither concerning the evidence base nor in relation to the limitations of the risk model in relation to the space of possible outcomes. Some suggestions are made to improve the current situation, aiming to strengthen the scientific basis for risk analysis. - Highlights: • Risk analyses in maritime transportation analysed in light of foundational issues. • Focus on definitions, perspectives and scientific approaches to risk analysis. • Probability-based definitions and realist approaches dominate the field. • Findings support calls for increased focus on foundational issues in risk research. • Some suggestions are made to improve the current situation

  13. Environmental and economic risks assessment under climate changes for three land uses scenarios analysis across Teshio watershed, northernmost of Japan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fan, Min; Shibata, Hideaki; Chen, Li

    2017-12-01

    Land use and climate changes affect on the economy and environment with different patterns and magnitudes in the watershed. This study used risk analysis model stochastic efficiency with respect to a function (SERF) to evaluate economic and environmental risks caused by four climate change scenarios (baseline, small-, mid- and large changes) and three land uses (paddy dominated, paddy-farmland mixture and farmland dominated for agriculture) in Teshio watershed in northern Hokkaido, Japan. Under the baseline climate conditions, the lower ranking of economic income of crop yield and higher ranking of pollutant load from agricultural land were both predicted in paddy dominated for agriculture, suggesting that the paddy dominated system caused higher risks of economic and environmental variables compared to other two land uses. Increase of temperature and precipitation increased crop yields under all three climate changes which resulted in increase of the ranking of economic income, indicating that those climate changes could reduce economic risk. The increased temperature and precipitation also accelerated mineralization of organic nutrient and nutrient leaching to river course of Teshio which resulted in increase of the ranking of pollutant load, suggesting that those climate changes could lead to more environmental risk. The rankings of economic income in mid- and large changes of climate were lower than that in small change of climate under paddy-farmland mixture and farmland dominated systems due to decrease of crop yield, suggesting that climate change led to more economic risk. In summary, the results suggested that increase in temperature and precipitation caused higher risks of both economic and environmental perspectives, and the impacts was higher than those of land use changes in the studied watershed. Those findings would help producers and watershed managers to measure the tradeoffs between environmental protection and agricultural economic development

  14. Soil Management Practices to Improve Nutrient-use Efficiencies and Reduce Risk in Millet-based Cropping Systems in the Sahel

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Koala, S.

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available Low soil fertility and moisture deficit are among the main constraints to sustainable crop yields in the Sahel. A study therefore, was conducted at the ICRISAT Sahelian Center, Sadore in Niger to test the hypothesis that integrated soil husbandry practices consisting of manure, fertilizer and crop residues in rotational cropping systems use organic and mineral fertilizes efficiently, thereby resulting in higher yields and reduced risk. Results from an analysis of variance showed that choice of cropping systems explained more than 50% of overall variability in millet and cowpea grain yields. Among the cropping systems, rotation gave higher yields than sole crop and intercropping systems and increased millet yield by 46% without fertilizer. Rainfall-use efficiency and partial factor productivity of fertilizer were similarly higher in rotations than in millet monoculture system. Returns from cowpea grown in cowpea-millet rotation without fertilizer and the medium rates of fertilizers (4 kg P.ha-1 + 15 kg N.ha-1 were found to be most profitable in terms of high returns and low risk, principally because of a higher price of cowpea than millet. The study recommends crop diversification, either in the form of rotations or relay intercropping systems for the Sahel as an insurance against total crop failure.

  15. Probabilistic methodology for turbine missile risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Twisdale, L.A.; Dunn, W.L.; Frank, R.A.

    1984-01-01

    A methodology has been developed for estimation of the probabilities of turbine-generated missile damage to nuclear power plant structures and systems. Mathematical models of the missile generation, transport, and impact events have been developed and sequenced to form an integrated turbine missile simulation methodology. Probabilistic Monte Carlo techniques are used to estimate the plant impact and damage probabilities. The methodology has been coded in the TURMIS computer code to facilitate numerical analysis and plant-specific turbine missile probability assessments. Sensitivity analyses have been performed on both the individual models and the integrated methodology, and probabilities have been estimated for a hypothetical nuclear power plant case study. (orig.)

  16. Nutrients for the aging eye

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rasmussen HM

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Helen M Rasmussen,1 Elizabeth J Johnson2 1Educational Studies, Lesley University, Cambridge, MA, USA; 2Carotenoid and Health Laboratory, Jean Mayer US Department of Agriculture Human Nutrition Research Center on Aging at Tufts University, Boston, MA, USA Abstract: The incidence of age-related eye diseases is expected to rise with the aging of the population. Oxidation and inflammation are implicated in the etiology of these diseases. There is evidence that dietary antioxidants and anti-inflammatories may provide benefit in decreasing the risk of age-related eye disease. Nutrients of interest are vitamins C and E, β-carotene, zinc, lutein, zeaxanthin, and the omega-3 fatty acids eicosapentaenoic acid and docosahexaenoic acid. While a recent survey finds that among the baby boomers (45–65 years old, vision is the most important of the five senses, well over half of those surveyed were not aware of the important nutrients that play a key role in eye health. This is evident from a national survey that finds that intake of these key nutrients from dietary sources is below the recommendations or guidelines. Therefore, it is important to educate this population and to create an awareness of the nutrients and foods of particular interest in the prevention of age-related eye disease. Keywords: nutrition, aging, eye health

  17. Source modelling in seismic risk analysis for nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yucemen, M.S.

    1978-12-01

    The proposed probabilistic procedure provides a consistent method for the modelling, analysis and updating of uncertainties that are involved in the seismic risk analysis for nuclear power plants. The potential earthquake activity zones are idealized as point, line or area sources. For these seismic source types, expressions to evaluate their contribution to seismic risk are derived, considering all the possible site-source configurations. The seismic risk at a site is found to depend not only on the inherent randomness of the earthquake occurrences with respect to magnitude, time and space, but also on the uncertainties associated with the predicted values of the seismic and geometric parameters, as well as the uncertainty in the attenuation model. The uncertainty due to the attenuation equation is incorporated into the analysis through the use of random correction factors. The influence of the uncertainty resulting from the insufficient information on the seismic parameters and source geometry is introduced into the analysis by computing a mean risk curve averaged over the various alternative assumptions on the parameters and source geometry. Seismic risk analysis is carried for the city of Denizli, which is located in the seismically most active zone of Turkey. The second analysis is for Akkuyu

  18. Challenges in the vulnerability and risk analysis of critical infrastructures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zio, Enrico

    2016-01-01

    The objective of this paper is to provide a systematic view on the problem of vulnerability and risk analysis of critical infrastructures. Reflections are made on the inherent complexities of these systems, related challenges are identified and possible ways forward for their analysis and management are indicated. Specifically: the framework of vulnerability and risk analysis is examined in relation to its application for the protection and resilience of critical infrastructures; it is argued that the complexity of these systems is a challenging characteristic, which calls for the integration of different modeling perspectives and new approaches of analysis; examples of are given in relation to the Internet and, particularly, the electric power grid, as representative of critical infrastructures and the associated complexity; the integration of different types of analyses and methods of system modeling is put forward for capturing the inherent structural and dynamic complexities of critical infrastructures and eventually evaluating their vulnerability and risk characteristics, so that decisions on protections and resilience actions can be taken with the required confidence. - Highlights: • The problem of the protection and resilience of CIs is the focus of the work. • The vulnerability and risk analysis framework for this is critically examined. • The complexity of CIs is presented as a challenge for system modeling and analysis. • The integration of different modeling perspectives of analysis is put forward as a solution. • The extension of the analysis framework to new methods for dealing with surprises and black swans is advocated.

  19. Revealing the underlying drivers of disaster risk: a global analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peduzzi, Pascal

    2017-04-01

    Disasters events are perfect examples of compound events. Disaster risk lies at the intersection of several independent components such as hazard, exposure and vulnerability. Understanding the weight of each component requires extensive standardisation. Here, I show how footprints of past disastrous events were generated using GIS modelling techniques and used for extracting population and economic exposures based on distribution models. Using past event losses, it was possible to identify and quantify a wide range of socio-politico-economic drivers associated with human vulnerability. The analysis was applied to about nine thousand individual past disastrous events covering earthquakes, floods and tropical cyclones. Using a multiple regression analysis on these individual events it was possible to quantify each risk component and assess how vulnerability is influenced by various hazard intensities. The results show that hazard intensity, exposure, poverty, governance as well as other underlying factors (e.g. remoteness) can explain the magnitude of past disasters. Analysis was also performed to highlight the role of future trends in population and climate change and how this may impacts exposure to tropical cyclones in the future. GIS models combined with statistical multiple regression analysis provided a powerful methodology to identify, quantify and model disaster risk taking into account its various components. The same methodology can be applied to various types of risk at local to global scale. This method was applied and developed for the Global Risk Analysis of the Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction (GAR). It was first applied on mortality risk in GAR 2009 and GAR 2011. New models ranging from global assets exposure and global flood hazard models were also recently developed to improve the resolution of the risk analysis and applied through CAPRA software to provide probabilistic economic risk assessments such as Average Annual Losses (AAL

  20. Aspects of the risk analysis in the process engineering industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hennings, W.; Madjar, M.; Mock, R.; Reer, B.

    1996-01-01

    This document is the result of a multi-discipline working group of a portion of a project called Risk analysis for chemical plants. Within the framework of the project, only selected methods and tools of risk analysis, thus, aspects of method, were able to be discussed and developed further. Case examples from the chemical industry are dealt with in order to discuss the application of a computer assisted quantitative error analysis in this industrial sector. Included is also a comprehensive documentation of the data and results utilised in the examples. figs., tabs., refs

  1. Is adaptation or transformation needed? Active nanomaterials and risk analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuzma, Jennifer; Roberts, John Patrick

    2016-07-01

    Nanotechnology has been a key area of funding and policy for the United States and globally for the past two decades. Since nanotechnology research and development became a focus and nanoproducts began to permeate the market, scholars and scientists have been concerned about how to assess the risks that they may pose to human health and the environment. The newest generation of nanomaterials includes biomolecules that can respond to and influence their environments, and there is a need to explore whether and how existing risk-analysis frameworks are challenged by such novelty. To fill this niche, we used a modified approach of upstream oversight assessment (UOA), a subset of anticipatory governance. We first selected case studies of "active nanomaterials," that are early in research and development and designed for use in multiple sectors, and then considered them under several, key risk-analysis frameworks. We found two ways in which the cases challenge the frameworks. The first category relates to how to assess risk under a narrow framing of the term (direct health and environmental harm), and the second involves the definition of what constitutes a "risk" worthy of assessment and consideration in decision making. In light of these challenges, we propose some changes for risk analysis in the face of active nanostructures in order to improve risk governance.

  2. Cable Hot Shorts and Circuit Analysis in Fire Risk Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    LaChance, Jeffrey; Nowlen, Steven P.; Wyant, Frank

    1999-01-01

    Under existing methods of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), the analysis of fire-induced circuit faults has typically been conducted on a simplistic basis. In particular, those hot-short methodologies that have been applied remain controversial in regards to the scope of the assessments, the underlying methods, and the assumptions employed. To address weaknesses in fire PRA methodologies, the USNRC has initiated a fire risk analysis research program that includes a task for improving the tools for performing circuit analysis. The objective of this task is to obtain a better understanding of the mechanisms linking fire-induced cable damage to potentially risk-significant failure modes of power, control, and instrumentation cables. This paper discusses the current status of the circuit analysis task

  3. Cyber Risk Management for Critical Infrastructure: A Risk Analysis Model and Three Case Studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paté-Cornell, M-Elisabeth; Kuypers, Marshall; Smith, Matthew; Keller, Philip

    2018-02-01

    Managing cyber security in an organization involves allocating the protection budget across a spectrum of possible options. This requires assessing the benefits and the costs of these options. The risk analyses presented here are statistical when relevant data are available, and system-based for high-consequence events that have not happened yet. This article presents, first, a general probabilistic risk analysis framework for cyber security in an organization to be specified. It then describes three examples of forward-looking analyses motivated by recent cyber attacks. The first one is the statistical analysis of an actual database, extended at the upper end of the loss distribution by a Bayesian analysis of possible, high-consequence attack scenarios that may happen in the future. The second is a systems analysis of cyber risks for a smart, connected electric grid, showing that there is an optimal level of connectivity. The third is an analysis of sequential decisions to upgrade the software of an existing cyber security system or to adopt a new one to stay ahead of adversaries trying to find their way in. The results are distributions of losses to cyber attacks, with and without some considered countermeasures in support of risk management decisions based both on past data and anticipated incidents. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

  4. Ontology-based specification, identification and analysis of perioperative risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uciteli, Alexandr; Neumann, Juliane; Tahar, Kais; Saleh, Kutaiba; Stucke, Stephan; Faulbrück-Röhr, Sebastian; Kaeding, André; Specht, Martin; Schmidt, Tobias; Neumuth, Thomas; Besting, Andreas; Stegemann, Dominik; Portheine, Frank; Herre, Heinrich

    2017-09-06

    Medical personnel in hospitals often works under great physical and mental strain. In medical decision-making, errors can never be completely ruled out. Several studies have shown that between 50 and 60% of adverse events could have been avoided through better organization, more attention or more effective security procedures. Critical situations especially arise during interdisciplinary collaboration and the use of complex medical technology, for example during surgical interventions and in perioperative settings (the period of time before, during and after surgical intervention). In this paper, we present an ontology and an ontology-based software system, which can identify risks across medical processes and supports the avoidance of errors in particular in the perioperative setting. We developed a practicable definition of the risk notion, which is easily understandable by the medical staff and is usable for the software tools. Based on this definition, we developed a Risk Identification Ontology (RIO) and used it for the specification and the identification of perioperative risks. An agent system was developed, which gathers risk-relevant data during the whole perioperative treatment process from various sources and provides it for risk identification and analysis in a centralized fashion. The results of such an analysis are provided to the medical personnel in form of context-sensitive hints and alerts. For the identification of the ontologically specified risks, we developed an ontology-based software module, called Ontology-based Risk Detector (OntoRiDe). About 20 risks relating to cochlear implantation (CI) have already been implemented. Comprehensive testing has indicated the correctness of the data acquisition, risk identification and analysis components, as well as the web-based visualization of results.

  5. Risk analysis of radioactive waste management systems in Germany

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wingender, H.J.

    1978-01-01

    Within the scope of a system study, ''Radioactive wastes in the Federal Republic of Germany,'' performed from 1974 through 1976, the questions of risk assessment were investigated. A risk analysis of a high-level waste (HLW) management system was performed. The results of the HLW tank storage are that the risk expectation value is 700 nJ/kg x RBE (7 x 10 -5 rem) per year for atmospheric release. The discussion of the main contributing accidents shows the possibility of reducing the risk by a technical means. A qualitative comparison on the release basis with the results of the WASH-1400 report shows significant differences that can be explained by the different methodologies applied. The risk analysis activities have led to a comprehensive risk assessment project, which was recently started. The projected includes research and development tasks concerning nuclide migration and transport to the ecosphere, nuclide mobilization by various mechanisms, methodology problems, data collection, computer code development, as well as risk analyses of waste management facilities. It is intended to round off the project with risk analyses of spent fuel element transport, storage, and reprocessing

  6. Fire risk analysis in ITER tritium building

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lignini, Franck; Uzan-Elbez, Joelle; Girard, Jean-Philippe; Porfiri, Maria Teresa; Rodriguez-Rodrigo, Lina

    2005-01-01

    Events, such as fire, have been considered in ITER documentation of low probability and a general approach has been defined in [Technical basis for the ITER final design, EDA Documentation Series I, No. 22, IAEA, Vienna, 2001] to be developed later for the ITER specific site. It was said that 'these hazards will be treated according to the industrial safety regulations and practices of the host country'. In the framework of studies for the European ITER site in Cadarache, an assessment of fire hazard has been done in order to ensure compliance with French safety requirements. In this report, a summary of existing laws is presented and an example of the deterministic approach to be followed for the preliminary safety report (PSR) is given on the analysis of tritium building design

  7. DORIAN, Bayes Method Plant Age Risk Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Atwood, C.L.

    2002-01-01

    1 - Description of program or function: DORIAN is an integrated package for performing Bayesian aging analysis of reliability data; e.g. for identifying trends in component failure rates and/or outage durations as a function of time. The user must specify several alternative hypothesized 'aging models' (i.e., possible trends) along prior probabilities indicating the subject probability that each trend is actually the correct one. DORIAN then uses component failure and/or repair data over time to update these prior probabilities and develop a posterior probability for each aging model, representing the probability that each model is the correct one in light of the observed data rather than a priori. Mean, median, and 5. and 95. percentile trends are also compiled from the posterior probabilities. 2 - Method of solution: DORIAN carries out a Bayesian analysis of failure data and a prior distribution on a time-dependent failure rate to obtain a posterior distribution on the failure rate. The form of the time-dependent failure rate is arbitrary, because DORIAN approximates the form by a step-function, constant within specified time intervals. Similarly, the parameters may have any prior distribution, because DORIAN uses a discrete distribution to approximate this. Likewise, the database file produced by DORIAN approximates the entire range of possible failure rates or outage durations developed by means of a discrete probability distribution containing no more than 20 distinct values with their probabilities. 3 - Restrictions on the complexity of the problem: Prior distribution is discrete with up to 25 values. Up to 60 times are accommodated in the discrete time history

  8. Spectral Quantitation Of Hydroponic Nutrients

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schlager, Kenneth J.; Kahle, Scott J.; Wilson, Monica A.; Boehlen, Michelle

    1996-01-01

    Instrument continuously monitors hydroponic solution by use of absorption and emission spectrometry to determine concentrations of principal nutrients, including nitrate, iron, potassium, calcium, magnesium, phosphorus, sodium, and others. Does not depend on extraction and processing of samples, use of such surrograte parameters as pH or electrical conductivity for control, or addition of analytical reagents to solution. Solution not chemically altered by analysis and can be returned to hydroponic process stream after analysis.

  9. Impact of Climate Variability and Landscape Patterns on Water Budget and Nutrient Loads in a Peri-urban Watershed: A Coupled Analysis Using Process-based Hydrological Model and Landscape Indices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Chongwei; Zhang, Yajuan; Kharel, Gehendra; Zou, Chris B

    2018-06-01

    Nutrient discharge into peri-urban streams and reservoirs constitutes a significant pressure on environmental management, but quantitative assessment of non-point source pollution under climate variability in fast changing peri-urban watersheds is challenging. Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to simulate water budget and nutrient loads for landscape patterns representing a 30-year progression of urbanization in a peri-urban watershed near Tianjin metropolis, China. A suite of landscape pattern indices was related to nitrogen (N) and phosphorous (P) loads under dry and wet climate using CANOCO redundancy analysis. The calibrated SWAT model was adequate to simulate runoff and nutrient loads for this peri-urban watershed, with Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient (NSE) and coefficient of determination (R 2 ) > 0.70 and percentage bias (PBIAS) between -7 and +18 for calibration and validation periods. With the progression of urbanization, forest remained the main "sink" landscape while cultivated and urban lands remained the main "source" landscapes with the role of orchard and grassland being uncertain and changing with time. Compared to 1984, the landscape use pattern in 2013 increased nutrient discharge by 10%. Nutrient loads modelled under wet climate were 3-4 times higher than that under dry climate for the same landscape pattern. Results indicate that climate change could impose a far greater impact on runoff and nutrient discharge in a peri-urban watershed than landscape pattern change.

  10. Impact of Climate Variability and Landscape Patterns on Water Budget and Nutrient Loads in a Peri-urban Watershed: A Coupled Analysis Using Process-based Hydrological Model and Landscape Indices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Chongwei; Zhang, Yajuan; Kharel, Gehendra; Zou, Chris B.

    2018-06-01

    Nutrient discharge into peri-urban streams and reservoirs constitutes a significant pressure on environmental management, but quantitative assessment of non-point source pollution under climate variability in fast changing peri-urban watersheds is challenging. Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to simulate water budget and nutrient loads for landscape patterns representing a 30-year progression of urbanization in a peri-urban watershed near Tianjin metropolis, China. A suite of landscape pattern indices was related to nitrogen (N) and phosphorous (P) loads under dry and wet climate using CANOCO redundancy analysis. The calibrated SWAT model was adequate to simulate runoff and nutrient loads for this peri-urban watershed, with Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient (NSE) and coefficient of determination ( R 2) > 0.70 and percentage bias (PBIAS) between -7 and +18 for calibration and validation periods. With the progression of urbanization, forest remained the main "sink" landscape while cultivated and urban lands remained the main "source" landscapes with the role of orchard and grassland being uncertain and changing with time. Compared to 1984, the landscape use pattern in 2013 increased nutrient discharge by 10%. Nutrient loads modelled under wet climate were 3-4 times higher than that under dry climate for the same landscape pattern. Results indicate that climate change could impose a far greater impact on runoff and nutrient discharge in a peri-urban watershed than landscape pattern change.

  11. Quantitative risk assessment using the capacity-demand analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morgenroth, M.; Donnelly, C.R.; Westermann, G.D.; Huang, J.H.S.; Lam, T.M.

    1999-01-01

    The hydroelectric industry's recognition of the importance of avoiding unexpected failure, or forced outages, led to the development of probabilistic, or risk-based, methods in order to attempt to quantify exposures. Traditionally, such analysis has been carried out by qualitative assessments, relying on experience and sound engineering judgment to determine the optimum time to maintain, repair or replace a part or system. Depending on the nature of the problem, however, and the level of experience of those included in the decision making process, it is difficult to find a balance between acting proactively and accepting some amount of risk. The development of a practical means for establishing the probability of failure of any part or system, based on the determination of the statistical distribution of engineering properties such as acting stresses, is discussed. The capacity-demand analysis methodology, coupled with probablistic, risk-based analysis, permits all the factors associated with a decision to rehabilitate or replace a part, including the risks associated with the timing of the decision, to be assessed in a transparent and defendable manner. The methodology does not eliminate judgment altogether, but does move it from the level of estimating the risk of failure to the lower level of estimating variability in material properties, uncertainty in loading, and the uncertainties inherent in any engineering analysis. The method was successfully used in 1998 to carry out a comprehensive, economic risk analysis for the entire water conveyance system of a 90 year old hydropower station. The analysis included a number of diverse parts ranging from rock slopes and aging steel and concrete conduits, and the method allowed a rational assessment of the risks associated with reach of these varied parts to be determined, permitting the essential remedial works to be prioritized. 14 refs., 4 figs

  12. Cooked oatmeal consumption is associated with better diet quality, better nutrient intakes, and reduced risk for central adiposity and obesity in children 2–18 years: NHANES 2001–2010

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carol E. O'Neil

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Background: None of the studies of whole grains that have looked either at diet or weight/adiposity measures have focused exclusively on oatmeal. Objective: The objective of this study was to assess the association between oatmeal consumption and nutrient intake, diet quality, and weight/adiposity of children aged 2–18. Design: A nationally representative sample of children aged 2–18 (N=14,690 participating in National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2001–2010 was used. Intake was determined from a single 24-h dietary recall. Diet quality was measured using the Healthy Eating Index-2010 (HEI-2010. Covariate-adjusted regression analyses, using appropriate sample weights, were used to determine differences between oatmeal consumers and non-consumers for demographics, nutrient intakes, diet quality, and weight/adiposity measures (p<0.01. Logistic regression was performed to calculate odds ratios for weight measures and obesity (p<0.05. Results: Compared to non-consumers, oatmeal consumers were more likely to be younger and less likely to be smokers. Consumers had higher intakes of dietary fiber, vitamin A, thiamin, riboflavin, calcium, phosphorus, magnesium, iron, copper, and potassium, and significantly lower intakes of total, monounsaturated and saturated fatty acids, cholesterol, and sodium. Oatmeal consumers had higher dietary quality scores attributable to higher intakes of whole grains and lower intakes of refined grains and empty calories. Children consuming oatmeal were at lower risk for having central adiposity and being obese. Conclusions: Consumption of oatmeal by children was associated with better nutrient intake, diet quality, and reduced risk for central adiposity and obesity and should be encouraged as part of an overall healthful diet.

  13. Risk-based configuration control system: Analysis and approaches

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Samanta, P.K.; Kim, I.S.; Lofgren, E.V.; Vesely, W.E.

    1990-01-01

    This paper presents an analysis of risks associated with component outage configurations during power operation of a nuclear power plant and discusses approaches and strategies for developing a risk-based configuration control system. A configuration, as used here, is a set of component states. The objective of risk-based configuration control is to detect and control plant configurations using a risk-perspective. The configuration contributions to core-melt frequency and core-melt probability are studied for two plants. Large core-melt frequency can be caused by configurations and there are a number of such configurations that are not currently controlled by technical specifications. However, the expected frequency of occurrence of the impacting configurations is small and the actual core-melt probability contributions are also generally small. Effective strategies and criteria for controlling configuration risks are presented. Such control strategies take into consideration the risks associated with configurations, the nature and characteristics of the configuration risks, and also the practical considerations such as adequate repair times and/or options to transfer to low risk configurations. Alternative types of criteria are discussed that are not overly restrictive to result in unnecessary plant shutdown, but rather motivates effective test and maintenance practices that control risk-significant configurations to allow continued operation with an adequate margin to meet challenges to safety

  14. Risk-based configuration control system: Analysis and approaches

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Samanta, P.K.; Vesely, W.E.; Kim, I.S.; Lofgren, E.V.

    1989-01-01

    This paper presents an analysis of risks associated with component outage configurations during power operation of a nuclear power plant and discusses approaches and strategies for developing a risk-based configuration control system. A configuration, as used here, is a set of component states. The objective of risk-based configuration control is to detect and control plant configurations using a risk-perspective. The configuration contributions to core-melt frequency and core-melt probability are studied for two plants. Large core-melt frequency can be caused by configurations and there are a number of such configurations that are not currently controlled by technical specifications. However, the expected frequency of occurrence of the impacting configurations is small and the actual core-melt probability contributions are also generally small. Effective strategies and criteria for controlling configuration risks are presented. Such control strategies take into consideration the risks associated with configurations, the nature and characteristics of the configuration risks, and also the practical considerations such as adequate repair times and/or options to transfer to low risk configurations. Alternative types of criteria are discussed that are not overly restrictive to result in unnecessary plant shutdown, but rather motivates effective tests and maintenance practices that control; risk-significant configurations to allow continued operation with an adequate margin to meet challenges to safety. 3 refs., 7 figs., 2 tabs

  15. Explaining HIV Risk Multiplexity: A Social Network Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Felsher, Marisa; Koku, Emmanuel

    2018-04-21

    Risk multiplexity (i.e., overlap in drug-use, needle exchange and sexual relations) is a known risk factor for HIV. However, little is known about predictors of multiplexity. This study uses egocentric data from the Colorado Springs study to examine how individual, behavioral and social network factors influence engagement in multiplex risk behavior. Analyses revealed that compared to Whites, Hispanics were significantly more likely to engage in risk multiplexity and Blacks less so. Respondents who were similar to each other (e.g., in terms of race) had significantly higher odds of being in risk multiplex relationships, and respondents' risk perceptions and network size were significantly associated with engaging in multiplex risk behaviors. Findings from interaction analysis showed the effect of knowing someone with HIV on the odds of multiplexity depends partly on whether respondents' know their HIV status. Findings suggest that demographics, HIV behaviors and network factors impact engagement in multiplex risk behaviors, highlighting the need for multi-level interventions aimed at reducing HIV risk behavior.

  16. Tutorial: Parallel Computing of Simulation Models for Risk Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reilly, Allison C; Staid, Andrea; Gao, Michael; Guikema, Seth D

    2016-10-01

    Simulation models are widely used in risk analysis to study the effects of uncertainties on outcomes of interest in complex problems. Often, these models are computationally complex and time consuming to run. This latter point may be at odds with time-sensitive evaluations or may limit the number of parameters that are considered. In this article, we give an introductory tutorial focused on parallelizing simulation code to better leverage modern computing hardware, enabling risk analysts to better utilize simulation-based methods for quantifying uncertainty in practice. This article is aimed primarily at risk analysts who use simulation methods but do not yet utilize parallelization to decrease the computational burden of these models. The discussion is focused on conceptual aspects of embarrassingly parallel computer code and software considerations. Two complementary examples are shown using the languages MATLAB and R. A brief discussion of hardware considerations is located in the Appendix. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

  17. Analysis of Blade Fragment Risk at a Wind Energy Facility

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Simms, David A [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Larwood, Scott [University of the Pacific

    2018-04-06

    An analysis was performed to determine the risk posed by wind turbine fragments on roads and buildings at the National Wind Technology Center at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. The authors used a previously developed model of fragment trajectory and took into account the wind speed/direction distribution at the site and the probability of rotor failure. The risk was assessed by determining the likelihood of impact and related consequences. For both the roads and buildings, the risk varied from low to routine, which was considered acceptable. The analysis was compared with previous recommendations on wind turbine setback distances. The results showed that a setback to property lines of 2 times the overall turbine height would be acceptable. However, the setback to dwellings should probably be increased from 3 to 3.5 times the overall turbine height for an acceptable risk.

  18. ANALYSIS METHODS OF BANKRUPTCY RISK IN ROMANIAN ENERGY MINING INDUSTRY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    CORICI MARIAN CATALIN

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The study is an analysis of bankruptcy risk and assessing the economic performance of the entity in charge of energy mining industry from southwest region. The scientific activity assesses the risk of bankruptcy using score’s method and some indicators witch reflecting the results obtained and elements from organization balance sheet involved in mining and energy which contributes to the stability of the national energy system. Analysis undertaken is focused on the application of the business organization models that allow a comprehensive assessment of the risk of bankruptcy and be an instrument of its forecast. In this study will be highlighted developments bankruptcy risk within the organization through the Altman model and Conan-Holder model in order to show a versatile image on the organization's ability to ensure business continuity

  19. Environmental Risk Assessment: Spatial Analysis of Chemical Hazards and Risks in South Korea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, H.; Heo, S.; Kim, M.; Lee, W. K.; Jong-Ryeul, S.

    2017-12-01

    This study identified chemical hazard and risk levels in Korea by analyzing the spatial distribution of chemical factories and accidents. The number of chemical factories and accidents in 5-km2 grids were used as the attribute value for spatial analysis. First, semi-variograms were conducted to examine spatial distribution patterns and to identify spatial autocorrelation of chemical factories and accidents. Semi-variograms explained that the spatial distribution of chemical factories and accidents were spatially autocorrelated. Second, the results of the semi-variograms were used in Ordinary Kriging to estimate chemical hazard and risk level. The level values were extracted from the Ordinary Kriging result and their spatial similarity was examined by juxtaposing the two values with respect to their location. Six peaks were identified in both the hazard and risk estimation result, and the peaks correlated with major cities in Korea. Third, the estimated hazard and risk levels were classified with geometrical interval and could be classified into four quadrants: Low Hazard and Low Risk (LHLR), Low Hazard and High Risk (LHHR), High Hazard and Low Risk (HHLR), and High Hazard and High Risk (HHHR). The 4 groups identified different chemical safety management issues in Korea; relatively safe LHLR group, many chemical reseller factories were found in HHLR group, chemical transportation accidents were in the LHHR group, and an abundance of factories and accidents were in the HHHR group. Each quadrant represented different safety management obstacles in Korea, and studying spatial differences can support the establishment of an efficient risk management plan.

  20. Dealing with uncertainty and pursuing superior technology options in risk management-The inherency risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Helland, Aasgeir

    2009-01-01

    Current regulatory systems focus on the state of scientific evidence as the predominant factor for how to handle risks to human health and the environment. However, production and assessment of risk information are costly and time-consuming, and firms have an intrinsic disincentive to produce and distribute information about risks of their products as this could endanger their production opportunities and sales. An emphasis on more or better science may result in insufficient thought and attention going into the exploration of technology alternatives, and that risk management policies miss out on the possible achievement of a more favorable set of consequences. In this article, a method is proposed that combines risk assessment with the search for alternative technological options as a part of the risk management procedure. The method proposed is the inherency risk analysis where the first stage focuses on the original agent subject to investigation, the second stage focuses on identifying technological options whereas the third stage reviews the different alternatives, searching for the most attractive tradeoffs between costs and inherent safety. This is then used as a fundament for deciding which technology option to pursue. This method aims at providing a solution-focused, systematic technology-based approach for addressing and setting priorities for environmental problems. By combining risk assessment with a structured approach to identify superior technology options within a risk management system, the result could very well be a win-win situation for both company and the environment.

  1. Hierarchical Modelling of Flood Risk for Engineering Decision Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Custer, Rocco

    protection structures in the hierarchical flood protection system - is identified. To optimise the design of protection structures, fragility and vulnerability models must allow for consideration of decision alternatives. While such vulnerability models are available for large protection structures (e...... systems, as well as the implementation of the flood risk analysis methodology and the vulnerability modelling approach are illustrated with an example application. In summary, the present thesis provides a characterisation of hierarchical flood protection systems as well as several methodologies to model...... and robust. Traditional risk management solutions, e.g. dike construction, are not particularly flexible, as they are difficult to adapt to changing risk. Conversely, the recent concept of integrated flood risk management, entailing a combination of several structural and non-structural risk management...

  2. Surplus analysis of Sparre Andersen insurance risk processes

    CERN Document Server

    Willmot, Gordon E

    2017-01-01

    This carefully written monograph covers the Sparre Andersen process in an actuarial context using the renewal process as the model for claim counts. A unified reference on Sparre Andersen (renewal risk) processes is included, often missing from existing literature. The authors explore recent results and analyse various risk theoretic quantities associated with the event of ruin, including the time of ruin and the deficit of ruin. Particular attention is given to the explicit identification of defective renewal equation components, which are needed to analyse various risk theoretic quantities and are also relevant in other subject areas of applied probability such as dams and storage processes, as well as queuing theory. Aimed at researchers interested in risk/ruin theory and related areas, this work will also appeal to graduate students in classical and modern risk theory and Gerber-Shiu analysis.

  3. Hierarchic Analysis Method to Evaluate Rock Burst Risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ming Ji

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available In order to reasonably evaluate the risk of rock bursts in mines, the factors impacting rock bursts and the existing grading criterion on the risk of rock bursts were studied. By building a model of hierarchic analysis method, the natural factors, technology factors, and management factors that influence rock bursts were analyzed and researched, which determined the degree of each factor’s influence (i.e., weight and comprehensive index. Then the grade of rock burst risk was assessed. The results showed that the assessment level generated by the model accurately reflected the actual risk degree of rock bursts in mines. The model improved the maneuverability and practicability of existing evaluation criteria and also enhanced the accuracy and science of rock burst risk assessment.

  4. Case studies: Risk-based analysis of technical specifications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wagner, D.P.; Minton, L.A.; Gaertner, J.P.

    1987-01-01

    The SOCRATES computer program uses the results of a Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) or a system level risk analysis to calculate changes in risk due to changes in the surveillance test interval and/or the allowed outage time stated in the technical specification. The computer program can accommodate various testing strategies (such as staggered or simultaneous testing) to allow modeling of component testing as it is carried out at a plant. The methods and computer program are an integral part of a larger decision process aimed at determining benefits from technical specification changes. These benefits can include cost savings to the utilities by reducing forced shutdowns with no adverse impacts on risk. Three summaries of case study applications are included to demonstrate the types of results that can be achieved through risk-based evaluation of technical specifications. (orig.)

  5. Risk factor analysis of equine strongyle resistance to anthelmintics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Sallé

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Intestinal strongyles are the most problematic endoparasites of equids as a result of their wide distribution and the spread of resistant isolates throughout the world. While abundant literature can be found on the extent of anthelmintic resistance across continents, empirical knowledge about associated risk factors is missing. This study brought together results from anthelmintic efficacy testing and risk factor analysis to provide evidence-based guidelines in the field. It involved 688 horses from 39 French horse farms and riding schools to both estimate Faecal Egg Count Reduction (FECR after anthelmintic treatment and to interview farm and riding school managers about their practices. Risk factors associated with reduced anthelmintic efficacy in equine strongyles were estimated across drugs using a marginal modelling approach. Results demonstrated ivermectin efficacy (96.3% ± 14.5% FECR, the inefficacy of fenbendazole (42.8% ± 33.4% FECR and an intermediate profile for pyrantel (90.3% ± 19.6% FECR. Risk factor analysis provided support to advocate for FEC-based treatment regimens combined with individual anthelmintic dosage and the enforcement of tighter biosecurity around horse introduction. The combination of these measures resulted in a decreased risk of drug resistance (relative risk of 0.57, p = 0.02. Premises falling under this typology also relied more on their veterinarians suggesting practitionners play an important role in the sustainability of anthelmintic usage. Similarly, drug resistance risk was halved in premises with frequent pasture rotation and with stocking rate below five horses/ha (relative risk of 0.53, p < 0.01. This is the first empirical risk factor analysis for anthelmintic resistance in equids. Our findings should guide the implementation of more sustained strongyle management in the field. Keywords: Horse, Nematode, Anthelmintic resistance, Strongyle, Cyathostomin

  6. Advanced uncertainty modelling for container port risk analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alyami, Hani; Yang, Zaili; Riahi, Ramin; Bonsall, Stephen; Wang, Jin

    2016-08-13

    Globalization has led to a rapid increase of container movements in seaports. Risks in seaports need to be appropriately addressed to ensure economic wealth, operational efficiency, and personnel safety. As a result, the safety performance of a Container Terminal Operational System (CTOS) plays a growing role in improving the efficiency of international trade. This paper proposes a novel method to facilitate the application of Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) in assessing the safety performance of CTOS. The new approach is developed through incorporating a Fuzzy Rule-Based Bayesian Network (FRBN) with Evidential Reasoning (ER) in a complementary manner. The former provides a realistic and flexible method to describe input failure information for risk estimates of individual hazardous events (HEs) at the bottom level of a risk analysis hierarchy. The latter is used to aggregate HEs safety estimates collectively, allowing dynamic risk-based decision support in CTOS from a systematic perspective. The novel feature of the proposed method, compared to those in traditional port risk analysis lies in a dynamic model capable of dealing with continually changing operational conditions in ports. More importantly, a new sensitivity analysis method is developed and carried out to rank the HEs by taking into account their specific risk estimations (locally) and their Risk Influence (RI) to a port's safety system (globally). Due to its generality, the new approach can be tailored for a wide range of applications in different safety and reliability engineering and management systems, particularly when real time risk ranking is required to measure, predict, and improve the associated system safety performance. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Multi-hazard risk analysis for management strategies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kappes, M.; Keiler, M.; Bell, R.; Glade, T.

    2009-04-01

    Risk management is very often operating in a reactive way, responding to an event, instead of proactive starting with risk analysis and building up the whole process of risk evaluation, prevention, event management and regeneration. Since damage and losses from natural hazards raise continuously more and more studies, concepts (e.g. Switzerland or South Tyrol-Bolozano) and software packages (e.g. ARMAGEDOM, HAZUS or RiskScape) are developed to guide, standardize and facilitate the risk analysis. But these approaches focus on different aspects and are mostly closely adapted to the situation (legislation, organization of the administration, specific processes etc.) of the specific country or region. We propose in this study the development of a flexible methodology for multi-hazard risk analysis, identifying the stakeholders and their needs, processes and their characteristics, modeling approaches as well as incoherencies occurring by combining all these different aspects. Based on this concept a flexible software package will be established consisting of ArcGIS as central base and being complemented by various modules for hazard modeling, vulnerability assessment and risk calculation. Not all modules will be developed newly but taken from the current state-of-the-art and connected or integrated into ArcGIS. For this purpose two study sites, Valtellina in Italy and Bacelonnette in France, were chosen and the hazards types debris flows, rockfalls, landslides, avalanches and floods are planned to be included in the tool for a regional multi-hazard risk analysis. Since the central idea of this tool is its flexibility this will only be a first step, in the future further processes and scales can be included and the instrument thus adapted to any study site.

  8. RISK LEVEL ANALYSIS ON THE PREVENTIVE EROSION CAPACITY OF BRIDGES

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2002-01-01

    Deficiency of the Preventive Erosion Capacity (PEC) of a bridge pier is the main factor leading to bridge failures. In this paper, the PEC of bridge piers was analyzed using the stochastic analysis method. The definitions of the reliability and risk level of a bridge pier subjected to water erosion were proposed and a computational model for erosion depth and risk level in was suggested.

  9. Chronic wasting disease risk analysis workshop: An integrative approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gillette, Shana; Dein, Joshua; Salman, Mo; Richards, Bryan; Duarte, Paulo

    2004-01-01

    Risk analysis tools have been successfully used to determine the potential hazard associated with disease introductions and have facilitated management decisions designed to limit the potential for disease introduction. Chronic Wasting Disease (CWD) poses significant challenges for resource managers due to an incomplete understanding of disease etiology and epidemiology and the complexity of management and political jurisdictions. Tools designed specifically to assess the risk of CWD introduction would be of great value to policy makers in areas where CWD has not been detected.

  10. Dairy products and pancreatic cancer risk: A pooled analysis of 14 cohort studies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Genkinger, J.M.; Wang, M.; Li, R.; Albanes, D.; Anderson, K.E.; Bernstein, L.; Brandt, P.A. van den; English, D.R.; Freudenheim, J.L.; Fuchs, C.S.; Gapstur, S.M.; Giles, G.G.; Goldbohm, R.A.; Håkansson, N.; Horn-Ross, P.L.; Koushik, A.; Marshal, J.R.; McCullough, M.L.; Miller, A.B.; Robien, K.; Rohan, T.E.; Schairer, C.; Silverman, D.T.; Stolzenberg-Solomon, R.Z.; Virtamo, J.; Willett, W.C.; Wolk, A.; Ziegler, R.G.; Smith-Warner, S.A.

    2014-01-01

    Pancreatic cancer has few early symptoms, is usually diagnosed at late stages, and has a high case-fatality rate. Identifying modifiable risk factors is crucial to reducing pancreatic cancer morbidity and mortality. Prior studies have suggested that specific foods and nutrients, such as dairy

  11. State of the art in benefit-risk analysis: introduction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verhagen, H; Tijhuis, M J; Gunnlaugsdóttir, H; Kalogeras, N; Leino, O; Luteijn, J M; Magnússon, S H; Odekerken, G; Pohjola, M V; Tuomisto, J T; Ueland, Ø; White, B C; Holm, F

    2012-01-01

    Risk-taking is normal in everyday life if there are associated (perceived) benefits. Benefit-Risk Analysis (BRA) compares the risk of a situation to its related benefits and addresses the acceptability of the risk. Over the past years BRA in relation to food and food ingredients has gained attention. Food, and even the same food ingredient, may confer both beneficial and adverse effects. Measures directed at food safety may lead to suboptimal or insufficient levels of ingredients from a benefit perspective. In BRA, benefits and risks of food (ingredients) are assessed in one go and may conditionally be expressed into one currency. This allows the comparison of adverse and beneficial effects to be qualitative and quantitative. A BRA should help policy-makers to make more informed and balanced benefit-risk management decisions. Not allowing food benefits to occur in order to guarantee food safety is a risk management decision much the same as accepting some risk in order to achieve more benefits. BRA in food and nutrition is making progress, but difficulties remain. The field may benefit from looking across its borders to learn from other research areas. The BEPRARIBEAN project (Best Practices for Risk-Benefit Analysis: experience from out of food into food; http://en.opasnet.org/w/Bepraribean) aims to do so, by working together with Medicines, Food Microbiology, Environmental Health, Economics & Marketing-Finance and Consumer Perception. All perspectives are reviewed and subsequently integrated to identify opportunities for further development of BRA for food and food ingredients. Interesting issues that emerge are the varying degrees of risk that are deemed acceptable within the areas and the trend towards more open and participatory BRA processes. A set of 6 'state of the art' papers covering the above areas and a paper integrating the separate (re)views are published in this volume. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Automated procedure for performing computer security risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, S.T.; Lim, J.J.

    1984-05-01

    Computers, the invisible backbone of nuclear safeguards, monitor and control plant operations and support many materials accounting systems. Our automated procedure to assess computer security effectiveness differs from traditional risk analysis methods. The system is modeled as an interactive questionnaire, fully automated on a portable microcomputer. A set of modular event trees links the questionnaire to the risk assessment. Qualitative scores are obtained for target vulnerability, and qualitative impact measures are evaluated for a spectrum of threat-target pairs. These are then combined by a linguistic algebra to provide an accurate and meaningful risk measure. 12 references, 7 figures

  13. Risk Analysis and Decision Making FY 2013 Milestone Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Engel, David W.; Dalton, Angela C.; Dale, Crystal; Jones, Edward; Thompson, J.

    2013-06-01

    Risk analysis and decision making is one of the critical objectives of CCSI, which seeks to use information from science-based models with quantified uncertainty to inform decision makers who are making large capital investments. The goal of this task is to develop tools and capabilities to facilitate the development of risk models tailored for carbon capture technologies, quantify the uncertainty of model predictions, and estimate the technical and financial risks associated with the system. This effort aims to reduce costs by identifying smarter demonstrations, which could accelerate development and deployment of the technology by several years.

  14. Analysis of interactions among barriers in project risk management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dandage, Rahul V.; Mantha, Shankar S.; Rane, Santosh B.; Bhoola, Vanita

    2018-03-01

    In the context of the scope, time, cost, and quality constraints, failure is not uncommon in project management. While small projects have 70% chances of success, large projects virtually have no chance of meeting the quadruple constraints. While there is no dearth of research on project risk management, the manifestation of barriers to project risk management is a less dwelt topic. The success of project management is oftentimes based on the understanding of barriers to effective risk management, application of appropriate risk management methodology, proactive leadership to avoid barriers, workers' attitude, adequate resources, organizational culture, and involvement of top management. This paper represents various risk categories and barriers to risk management in domestic and international projects through literature survey and feedback from project professionals. After analysing the various modelling methods used in project risk management literature, interpretive structural modelling (ISM) and MICMAC analysis have been used to analyse interactions among the barriers and prioritize them. The analysis indicates that lack of top management support, lack of formal training, and lack of addressing cultural differences are the high priority barriers, among many others.

  15. Gambler Risk Perception: A Mental Model and Grounded Theory Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spurrier, Michael; Blaszczynski, Alexander; Rhodes, Paul

    2015-09-01

    Few studies have investigated how gamblers perceive risk or the role of risk perception in disordered gambling. The purpose of the current study therefore was to obtain data on lay gamblers' beliefs on these variables and their effects on decision-making, behaviour, and disordered gambling aetiology. Fifteen regular lay gamblers (non-problem/low risk, moderate risk and problem gamblers) completed a semi-structured interview following mental models and grounded theory methodologies. Gambler interview data was compared to an expert 'map' of risk-perception, to identify comparative gaps or differences associated with harmful or safe gambling. Systematic overlapping processes of data gathering and analysis were used to iteratively extend, saturate, test for exception, and verify concepts and themes emerging from the data. The preliminary findings suggested that gambler accounts supported the presence of expert conceptual constructs, and to some degree the role of risk perception in protecting against or increasing vulnerability to harm and disordered gambling. Gambler accounts of causality, meaning, motivation, and strategy were highly idiosyncratic, and often contained content inconsistent with measures of disordered gambling. Disordered gambling appears heavily influenced by relative underestimation of risk and overvaluation of gambling, based on explicit and implicit analysis, and deliberate, innate, contextual, and learned processing evaluations and biases.

  16. Dietary patterns and depression risk: A meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Ye; Lv, Mei-Rong; Wei, Yan-Jin; Sun, Ling; Zhang, Ji-Xiang; Zhang, Huai-Guo; Li, Bin

    2017-07-01

    Although some studies have reported potential associations of dietary patterns with depression risk, a consistent perspective hasn't been estimated to date. Therefore, we conducted this meta-analysis to evaluate the relation between dietary patterns and the risk of depression. A literature research was conducted searching MEDLINE and EMBASE databases up to September 2016. In total, 21 studies from ten countries met the inclusion criteria and were included in the present meta-analysis. A dietary pattern characterized by a high intakes of fruit, vegetables, whole grain, fish, olive oil, low-fat dairy and antioxidants and low intakes of animal foods was apparently associated with a decreased risk of depression. A dietary pattern characterized by a high consumption of red and/or processed meat, refined grains, sweets, high-fat dairy products, butter, potatoes and high-fat gravy, and low intakes of fruits and vegetables is associated with an increased risk of depression. The results of this meta-analysis suggest that healthy pattern may decrease the risk of depression, whereas western-style may increase the risk of depression. However, more randomized controlled trails and cohort studies are urgently required to confirm this findings. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Is adaptation or transformation needed? Active nanomaterials and risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kuzma, Jennifer; Roberts, John Patrick

    2016-01-01

    Nanotechnology has been a key area of funding and policy for the United States and globally for the past two decades. Since nanotechnology research and development became a focus and nanoproducts began to permeate the market, scholars and scientists have been concerned about how to assess the risks that they may pose to human health and the environment. The newest generation of nanomaterials includes biomolecules that can respond to and influence their environments, and there is a need to explore whether and how existing risk-analysis frameworks are challenged by such novelty. To fill this niche, we used a modified approach of upstream oversight assessment (UOA), a subset of anticipatory governance. We first selected case studies of “active nanomaterials,” that are early in research and development and designed for use in multiple sectors, and then considered them under several, key risk-analysis frameworks. We found two ways in which the cases challenge the frameworks. The first category relates to how to assess risk under a narrow framing of the term (direct health and environmental harm), and the second involves the definition of what constitutes a “risk” worthy of assessment and consideration in decision making. In light of these challenges, we propose some changes for risk analysis in the face of active nanostructures in order to improve risk governance.

  18. Is adaptation or transformation needed? Active nanomaterials and risk analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kuzma, Jennifer, E-mail: jkuzma@ncsu.edu [North Carolina State University, School of Public and International Affairs and Genetic Engineering and Society Center (United States); Roberts, John Patrick [North Carolina State University, School of Public and International Affairs (United States)

    2016-07-15

    Nanotechnology has been a key area of funding and policy for the United States and globally for the past two decades. Since nanotechnology research and development became a focus and nanoproducts began to permeate the market, scholars and scientists have been concerned about how to assess the risks that they may pose to human health and the environment. The newest generation of nanomaterials includes biomolecules that can respond to and influence their environments, and there is a need to explore whether and how existing risk-analysis frameworks are challenged by such novelty. To fill this niche, we used a modified approach of upstream oversight assessment (UOA), a subset of anticipatory governance. We first selected case studies of “active nanomaterials,” that are early in research and development and designed for use in multiple sectors, and then considered them under several, key risk-analysis frameworks. We found two ways in which the cases challenge the frameworks. The first category relates to how to assess risk under a narrow framing of the term (direct health and environmental harm), and the second involves the definition of what constitutes a “risk” worthy of assessment and consideration in decision making. In light of these challenges, we propose some changes for risk analysis in the face of active nanostructures in order to improve risk governance.

  19. Spatial and temporal characterization of trace elements and nutrients in the Rawal Lake Reservoir, Pakistan using multivariate analysis techniques.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malik, Riffat Naseem; Nadeem, Muhammad

    2011-12-01

    Rawal Lake Reservoir is renowned for its ecological significance and is the sole source of drinking water of the third largest city of Pakistan. However, fish kill in recent years and anthropogenic impacts from human-related activities in its catchment area have resulted in deterioration of its surface water quality. This study aims to characterize spatial and temporal variations in surface water quality, identify contaminant sources, and compare their levels with quality guidelines. Surface water samples were collected from 10 sites and analyzed for 27 physicochemical parameters for a period of 2 years on a seasonal basis. Concentration of metals in surface water in pre-monsoon were in the order: Fe > Mg > Ca > Mn > Zn > Ni > Cr > Cu > Co > Pb, whereas in post-monsoon, the order of elemental concentrations was: Ca > Mg > Na > Fe > K > Zn > Cr > Li > Pb > Co > Ni > Cu > Mn > Cd. Metals (Ni, Fe, Zn, and Ca), pH, electrical conductivity (EC), dissolved oxygen (DO), chemical oxygen demand (COD), and nutrients (PO (4) (3-) , NO(3)-N, and SO (4) (2-) ) were measured higher in pre-monsoon, whereas concentration of Cu, Mn, Cr, Co, Pb, Cd, K, Na, Mg, Li, Cl(-), and NH(4)-N were recorded higher in post-monsoon. Results highlighted serious metal pollution of surface water. Mean concentration of Zn, Cd, Ni, Cu, Fe, Cr, and Pb in both seasons and Mn in post-monsoon were well above the permissible level of surface water quality criteria. Results stress the dire need to reduce heavy-metal input into the lake basin and suggest that heavy-metal contamination should be considered as an integral part of future planning and management strategies for restoration of water quality of the lake reservoir.

  20. Water-quality assessment of the Rio Grande Valley study unit, Colorado, New Mexico, and Texas: analysis of selected nutrient, suspended-sediment, and pesticide data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderholm, S.K.; Radell, M.J.; Richey, S.F.

    1995-01-01

    This report contains a summary of data compiled from sources throughout the Rio Grande Valley study unit of the National Water-Quality Assessment program. Information presented includes the sources and types of water-quality data available, the utility of water-quality data for statistical analysis, and a description of recent water-quality conditions and trends and their relation to natural and human factors. Water-quality data are limited to concentrations of selected nutrient species in surface water and ground water, concentrations of suspended sediment and suspended solids in surface water, and pesticides in surface water, ground water, and biota.The Rio Grande Valley study unit includes about 45,900 square miles in Colorado, New Mexico, and Texas upstream from the streamflow-monitoring station Rio Grande at El Paso, Texas. The area also includes the San Luis Closed Basin and the surface-water closed basins east of the Continental Divide and north of the United States-Mexico international border. The Rio Grande drains about 29,300 square miles in these States; the remainder of the study unit area is in closed basins. Concentrations of all nutrients found in surface-water samples collected from the Rio Grande, with the exception of phosphorus, generally remained nearly constant from the northernmost station in the study unit to Rio Grande near Isleta, where concentrations were larger by an order of magnitude. Total nitrogen and total phosphorus loads increased downstream between Lobatos, Colorado, and Albuquerque, New Mexico. Nutrient concentrations remained elevated with slight variations until downstream from Elephant Butte Reservoir, where nutrient concentrations were lower. Nutrient concentrations then increased downstream from the reservoir, as evidenced by elevated concentrations at Rio Grande at El Paso, Texas.Suspended-sediment concentrations were similar at stations upstream from Otowi Bridge near San Ildefonso, New Mexico. The concentration and

  1. Benefit-Risk Analysis for Decision-Making: An Approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raju, G K; Gurumurthi, K; Domike, R

    2016-12-01

    The analysis of benefit and risk is an important aspect of decision-making throughout the drug lifecycle. In this work, the use of a benefit-risk analysis approach to support decision-making was explored. The proposed approach builds on the qualitative US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approach to include a more explicit analysis based on international standards and guidance that enables aggregation and comparison of benefit and risk on a common basis and a lifecycle focus. The approach is demonstrated on six decisions over the lifecycle (e.g., accelerated approval, withdrawal, and traditional approval) using two case studies: natalizumab for multiple sclerosis (MS) and bedaquiline for multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB). © 2016 American Society for Clinical Pharmacology and Therapeutics.

  2. Flood risk analysis procedure for nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wagner, D.P.

    1982-01-01

    This paper describes a methodology and procedure for determining the impact of floods on nuclear power plant risk. The procedures are based on techniques of fault tree and event tree analysis and use the logic of these techniques to determine the effects of a flood on system failure probability and accident sequence occurrence frequency. The methodology can be applied independently or as an add-on analysis for an existing risk assessment. Each stage of the analysis yields useful results such as the critical flood level, failure flood level, and the flood's contribution to accident sequence occurrence frequency. The results of applications show the effects of floods on the risk from nuclear power plants analyzed in the Reactor Safety Study

  3. Deciphering relationships between in-stream travel times, nutrient concentrations, and uptake through analysis of hysteretic and non-hysteretic kinetic behavior

    Science.gov (United States)

    Covino, T. P.; Bowden, W. B.; Gooseff, M. N.; Wollheim, W. M.; McGlynn, B. L.; Whittinghill, K. A.; Wlostowski, A. N.; Herstand, M. R.

    2012-12-01

    Understanding the relationship between solute travel time, concentration, and nutrient uptake remains a central question in watershed hydrology and biogeochemistry. Theoretical understanding predicts that nutrient uptake should increase as in-stream solute travel time lengthens and/or as concentration increases; however, results from field-based studies have been contradictory. We used a newly developed approach, Tracer Additions for Spiraling Curve Characterization (TASCC), to investigate relationships between solute travel time, nutrient concentration, and nutrient uptake across a range of stream types. This approach allows us to quantify in-stream nutrient uptake across a range of travel times and nutrient concentrations using single instantaneous injections (slugs) of conservative and non-conservative tracers. In some systems we observed counter-clockwise hysteresis loops in the relationship between nutrient uptake and concentration. Greater nutrient uptake on the falling limb of tracer breakthrough curves indicates stronger uptake for a given concentration at longer travel times. However, in other systems we did not observe hysteresis in these relationships. Lack of hysteresis indicates that nutrient uptake kinetics were not influenced by travel time travel time. Here we investigate the potential roles of travel time and in-stream flowpaths that could be responsible for hysteretic behavior.

  4. System risk evolution analysis and risk critical event identification based on event sequence diagram

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Luo, Pengcheng; Hu, Yang

    2013-01-01

    During system operation, the environmental, operational and usage conditions are time-varying, which causes the fluctuations of the system state variables (SSVs). These fluctuations change the accidents’ probabilities and then result in the system risk evolution (SRE). This inherent relation makes it feasible to realize risk control by monitoring the SSVs in real time, herein, the quantitative analysis of SRE is essential. Besides, some events in the process of SRE are critical to system risk, because they act like the “demarcative points” of safety and accident, and this characteristic makes each of them a key point of risk control. Therefore, analysis of SRE and identification of risk critical events (RCEs) are remarkably meaningful to ensure the system to operate safely. In this context, an event sequence diagram (ESD) based method of SRE analysis and the related Monte Carlo solution are presented; RCE and risk sensitive variable (RSV) are defined, and the corresponding identification methods are also proposed. Finally, the proposed approaches are exemplified with an accident scenario of an aircraft getting into the icing region

  5. Investigation on by-products of bioenergy systems (anaerobic digestion and gasification) as potential crop nutrient using FTIR, XRD, SEM analysis and phyto-toxicity test.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kataki, Sampriti; Hazarika, Samarendra; Baruah, D C

    2017-07-01

    Success and acceptability of the bio energy conversion technology to a large extent depend upon management of the inevitable by-products generated during the conversion process. By-products can be considered favourable as organic fertilizer as they retain nutrients with varying composition depending upon input biomass. However, characteristics of these heterogeneous resources with respect to feedstock and processing conditions have to be assessed to state on their agricultural and environmental benefits. Therefore, 3 types of anaerobic digestion by-products (digestate) from surplus biomass viz. cow dung, Ipomoea carnea:cow dung (60:40 dry weight basis) and rice straw:green gram stover:cow dung (30:30:40 dry weight basis) and one gasification by-product (biochar) from rice husk are considered to understand the fertilizer prospects. Considering 3 potential application options, digestate from each feedstock option was further processed as separated solid, separated liquid and ash from solid digestates. Thus, a total of 10 by-products were investigated for understanding their prospects as fertilizer using Fourier Transform Infrared Spectroscopy (FTIR), X-ray diffraction (XRD), Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM) and Energy Dispersive X ray Spectroscopy (EDX) and phyto-toxicity test to have a broad insight in terms of their organic, mineral, elemental composition, morphological feature and potential phyto-toxicity. In general, irrespective of origin of feedstock, solid digestate, ash digestate and char showed similarity in terms of composition of functional groups with some degree of variation in relative content as reflected by FTIR analysis. Dominance of organic functional groups in separated solid digestates compared to liquid fraction indicated the former as favourable organic amendments. Quartz was the prevalent mineral phase in all separated solid, ash digestate and rice husk char. Digestates in ash phase represent more concentrated plant nutrient source with

  6. Dietary patterns and colorectal cancer risk: a meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, Yu-Liang; Shu, Long; Zheng, Pei-Fen; Zhang, Xiao-Yan; Si, Cai-Juan; Yu, Xiao-Long; Gao, Wei; Zhang, Lun

    2017-05-01

    The analysis of dietary patterns has recently drawn considerable attention as a method of investigating the association between the overall whole diet and the risk of colorectal cancer. However, the results have yielded conflicting findings. Here, we carried out a meta-analysis to identify the association between dietary patterns and the risk of colorectal cancer. A total of 40 studies fulfilled the inclusion criteria and were included in this meta-analysis. The highest category of 'healthy' dietary pattern compared with the lowest category was apparently associated with a decreased risk for colorectal cancer [odds ratio (OR)=0.75; confidence interval (CI): 0.68-0.83; Pcolorectal cancer was shown for the highest compared with the lowest category of a 'western-style' dietary pattern (OR=1.40; CI: 1.26-1.56; Pcolorectal cancer in the highest compared with the lowest category of 'alcohol-consumption' pattern (OR=1.44; CI: 1.13-1.82; P=0.003). The results of this meta-analysis indicate that a 'healthy' dietary pattern may decrease the risk of colorectal cancer, whereas 'western-style' and 'alcohol-consumption' patterns may increase the risk of colorectal cancer.

  7. Dietary, Nutrient Patterns and Blood Essential Elements in Chinese Children with ADHD

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fankun Zhou

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Dietary or nutrient patterns represent the combined effects of foods or nutrients, and elucidate efficaciously the impact of diet on diseases. Because the pharmacotherapy on attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD was reported be associated with certain side effects, and the etiology of ADHD is multifactorial, this study investigated the association of dietary and nutrient patterns with the risk of ADHD. We conducted a case-control study with 592 Chinese children including ADHD (n = 296 and non-ADHD (n = 296 aged 6–14 years old, matched by age and sex. Dietary and nutrient patterns were identified using factor analysis and a food frequency questionnaire. Blood essential elements levels were measured using atomic absorption spectrometry. A fish-white meat dietary pattern rich in shellfish, deep water fish, white meat, freshwater fish, organ meat and fungi and algae was inversely associated with ADHD (p = 0.006. Further analysis found that a mineral-protein nutrient pattern rich in zinc, protein, phosphorus, selenium, calcium and riboflavin was inversely associated with ADHD (p = 0.014. Additionally, the blood zinc was also negatively related to ADHD (p = 0.003. In conclusion, the fish-white meat dietary pattern and mineral-protein nutrient pattern may have beneficial effects on ADHD in Chinese children, and blood zinc may be helpful in distinguishing ADHD in Chinese children.

  8. Dietary, Nutrient Patterns and Blood Essential Elements in Chinese Children with ADHD.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Fankun; Wu, Fengyun; Zou, Shipu; Chen, Ying; Feng, Chang; Fan, Guangqin

    2016-06-08

    Dietary or nutrient patterns represent the combined effects of foods or nutrients, and elucidate efficaciously the impact of diet on diseases. Because the pharmacotherapy on attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) was reported be associated with certain side effects, and the etiology of ADHD is multifactorial, this study investigated the association of dietary and nutrient patterns with the risk of ADHD. We conducted a case-control study with 592 Chinese children including ADHD (n = 296) and non-ADHD (n = 296) aged 6-14 years old, matched by age and sex. Dietary and nutrient patterns were identified using factor analysis and a food frequency questionnaire. Blood essential elements levels were measured using atomic absorption spectrometry. A fish-white meat dietary pattern rich in shellfish, deep water fish, white meat, freshwater fish, organ meat and fungi and algae was inversely associated with ADHD (p = 0.006). Further analysis found that a mineral-protein nutrient pattern rich in zinc, protein, phosphorus, selenium, calcium and riboflavin was inversely associated with ADHD (p = 0.014). Additionally, the blood zinc was also negatively related to ADHD (p = 0.003). In conclusion, the fish-white meat dietary pattern and mineral-protein nutrient pattern may have beneficial effects on ADHD in Chinese children, and blood zinc may be helpful in distinguishing ADHD in Chinese children.

  9. General overview and perspectives of risk analysis in Cuba

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Torres, A.; Rodriguez, J.M.; Vilaragut, J.J.; Valhuerdi, C.

    1995-01-01

    This papers shows a general overview of the application of risk analysis techniques in some potentially dangerous industries in Cuba. This paper summarizes the experiences of these sectors in the risk analysis with different specification levels and different approaches. Some experiences in the application of these analyses in the nuclear and aeronautical industries are shown. Some analyses of consequences in cases of accidents in the chemical industries in order to work due and improve emergency plans for responding to accident situations are presented in a more succinct manner. Also the perspectives to develop some of these tendencies and cooperation forms between them are summarized

  10. Soil an-d nutrient loss following site preparation burning

    Science.gov (United States)

    E.A. Carter; J.P. Field; K.W. Farrish

    2000-01-01

    Sediment loss and nutrient cpncentrations in runoff were evaluated to determine the effects of site preparation burning on a recently harvested loblolly pine (Pinur taeda L.) site in east Texas. Sediment and nutrient losses prior to treatment were approximately the same from control plots and pretreatment burn plots. Nutrient analysis of runoff samples indicated that...

  11. Soil and Nutrient Loss Following Site Preparation Burning

    Science.gov (United States)

    J.P. Field; E.A. Carter

    2000-01-01

    Sediment loss and nutrient cpncentrations in runoff were evaluated to determine the effects of site preparation burning on a recently harvested loblolly pine (Pinus taeda L.) site in east Texas. Sediment and nutrient losses prior to treatment were approximately the same from control plots and pretreatment burn plots. Nutrient analysis of runoff...

  12. Cardiometabolic risk in Canada: a detailed analysis and position paper by the cardiometabolic risk working group.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leiter, Lawrence A; Fitchett, David H; Gilbert, Richard E; Gupta, Milan; Mancini, G B John; McFarlane, Philip A; Ross, Robert; Teoh, Hwee; Verma, Subodh; Anand, Sonia; Camelon, Kathryn; Chow, Chi-Ming; Cox, Jafna L; Després, Jean-Pierre; Genest, Jacques; Harris, Stewart B; Lau, David C W; Lewanczuk, Richard; Liu, Peter P; Lonn, Eva M; McPherson, Ruth; Poirier, Paul; Qaadri, Shafiq; Rabasa-Lhoret, Rémi; Rabkin, Simon W; Sharma, Arya M; Steele, Andrew W; Stone, James A; Tardif, Jean-Claude; Tobe, Sheldon; Ur, Ehud

    2011-01-01

    The concepts of "cardiometabolic risk," "metabolic syndrome," and "risk stratification" overlap and relate to the atherogenic process and development of type 2 diabetes. There is confusion about what these terms mean and how they can best be used to improve our understanding of cardiovascular disease treatment and prevention. With the objectives of clarifying these concepts and presenting practical strategies to identify and reduce cardiovascular risk in multiethnic patient populations, the Cardiometabolic Working Group reviewed the evidence related to emerging cardiovascular risk factors and Canadian guideline recommendations in order to present a detailed analysis and consolidated approach to the identification and management of cardiometabolic risk. The concepts related to cardiometabolic risk, pathophysiology, and strategies for identification and management (including health behaviours, pharmacotherapy, and surgery) in the multiethnic Canadian population are presented. "Global cardiometabolic risk" is proposed as an umbrella term for a comprehensive list of existing and emerging factors that predict cardiovascular disease and/or type 2 diabetes. Health behaviour interventions (weight loss, physical activity, diet, smoking cessation) in people identified at high cardiometabolic risk are of critical importance given the emerging crisis of obesity and the consequent epidemic of type 2 diabetes. Vascular protective measures (health behaviours for all patients and pharmacotherapy in appropriate patients) are essential to reduce cardiometabolic risk, and there is growing consensus that a multidisciplinary approach is needed to adequately address cardiometabolic risk factors. Health care professionals must also consider risk factors related to ethnicity in order to appropriately evaluate everyone in their diverse patient populations. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  13. Analysis of risk factors and risk assessment for ischemic stroke recurrence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiu-ying LONG

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Objective To screen the risk factors for recurrence of ischemic stroke and to assess the risk of recurrence. Methods Essen Stroke Risk Score (ESRS was used to evaluate the risk of recurrence in 176 patients with ischemic stroke (96 cases of first onset and 80 cases of recurrence. Univariate and multivariate stepwise Logistic regression analysis was used to screen risk factors for recurrence of ischemic stroke.  Results There were significant differences between first onset group and recurrence group on age, the proportion of > 75 years old, hypertension, diabetes, coronary heart disease, peripheral angiopathy, transient ischemic attack (TIA or ischemic stroke, drinking and ESRS score (P < 0.05, for all. First onset group included one case of ESRS 0 (1.04%, 8 cases of 1 (8.33%, 39 cases of 2 (40.63%, 44 cases of 3 (45.83%, 4 cases of 4 (4.17%. Recurrence group included 2 cases of ESRS 3 (2.50%, 20 cases of 4 (25% , 37 cases of 5 (46.25% , 18 cases of 6 (22.50% , 3 cases of 7 (3.75% . There was significant difference between 2 groups (Z = -11.376, P = 0.000. Logistic regression analysis showed ESRS > 3 score was independent risk factor for recurrence of ischemic stroke (OR = 31.324, 95%CI: 3.934-249.430; P = 0.001.  Conclusions ESRS > 3 score is the independent risk factor for recurrence of ischemic stroke. It is important to strengthen risk assessment of recurrence of ischemic stroke. To screen and control risk factors is the key to secondary prevention of ischemic stroke. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1672-6731.2016.07.011

  14. The prostate cancer risk stratification (ProCaRS) project: Recursive partitioning risk stratification analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rodrigues, George; Lukka, Himu; Warde, Padraig; Brundage, Michael; Souhami, Luis; Crook, Juanita; Cury, Fabio; Catton, Charles; Mok, Gary; Martin, Andre-Guy; Vigneault, Eric; Morris, Jim; Warner, Andrew; Gonzalez Maldonado, Sandra; Pickles, Tom

    2013-01-01

    Background: The Genitourinary Radiation Oncologists of Canada (GUROC) published a three-group risk stratification (RS) system to assist prostate cancer decision-making in 2001. The objective of this project is to use the ProCaRS database to statistically model the predictive accuracy and clinical utility of a proposed new multi-group RS schema. Methods: The RS analyses utilized the ProCaRS database that consists of 7974 patients from four Canadian institutions. Recursive partitioning analysis (RPA) was utilized to explore the sub-stratification of groups defined by the existing three-group GUROC scheme. 10-fold cross-validated C-indices and the Net Reclassification Index were both used to assess multivariable models and compare the predictive accuracy of existing and proposed RS systems, respectively. Results: The recursive partitioning analysis has suggested that the existing GUROC classification system could be altered to accommodate as many as six separate and statistical unique groups based on differences in BFFS (C-index 0.67 and AUC 0.70). GUROC low-risk patients would be divided into new favorable-low and low-risk groups based on PSA ⩽6 and PSA >6. GUROC intermediate-risk patients can be subclassified into low-intermediate and high-intermediate groups. GUROC high-intermediate-risk is defined as existing GUROC intermediate-risk with PSA >=10 AND either T2b/c disease or T1T2a disease with Gleason 7. GUROC high-risk patients would be subclassified into an additional extreme-risk group (GUROC high-risk AND (positive cores ⩾87.5% OR PSA >30). Conclusions: Proposed RS subcategories have been identified by a RPA of the ProCaRS database

  15. [Competitive karate and the risk of HIV infection--review, risk analysis and risk minimizing strategies].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Müller-Rath, R; Mumme, T; Miltner, O; Skobel, E

    2004-03-01

    Bleeding facial injuries are not uncommon in competitive karate. Nevertheless, the risk of an infection with HIV is extremely low. Guidelines about the prevention of HIV infections are presented. Especially in contact sports and martial arts the athletes, judges and staff have to recognize and employ these recommendations. Bleeding wounds of the hands due to contact with the opponents teeth can be minimized by fist padding.

  16. Water Quality Protection from Nutrient Pollution: Case ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Water bodies and coastal areas around the world are threatened by increases in upstream sediment and nutrient loads, which influence drinking water sources, aquatic species, and other ecologic functions and services of streams, lakes, and coastal water bodies. For example, increased nutrient fluxes from the Mississippi River Basin have been linked to increased occurrences of seasonal hypoxia in northern Gulf of Mexico. Lake Erie is another example where in the summer of 2014 nutrients, nutrients, particularly phosphorus, washed from fertilized farms, cattle feedlots, and leaky septic systems; caused a severe algae bloom, much of it poisonous; and resulted in the loss of drinking water for a half-million residents. Our current management strategies for point and non-point source nutrient loadings need to be improved to protect and meet the expected increased future demands of water for consumption, recreation, and ecological integrity. This presentation introduces management practices being implemented and their effectiveness in reducing nutrient loss from agricultural fields, a case analysis of nutrient pollution of the Grand Lake St. Marys and possible remedies, and ongoing work on watershed modeling to improve our understanding on nutrient loss and water quality. Presented at the 3rd International Conference on Water Resource and Environment.

  17. Risk analysis by FMEA as an element of analytical validation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Leeuwen, J F; Nauta, M J; de Kaste, D; Odekerken-Rombouts, Y M C F; Oldenhof, M T; Vredenbregt, M J; Barends, D M

    2009-12-05

    We subjected a Near-Infrared (NIR) analytical procedure used for screening drugs on authenticity to a Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA), including technical risks as well as risks related to human failure. An FMEA team broke down the NIR analytical method into process steps and identified possible failure modes for each step. Each failure mode was ranked on estimated frequency of occurrence (O), probability that the failure would remain undetected later in the process (D) and severity (S), each on a scale of 1-10. Human errors turned out to be the most common cause of failure modes. Failure risks were calculated by Risk Priority Numbers (RPNs)=O x D x S. Failure modes with the highest RPN scores were subjected to corrective actions and the FMEA was repeated, showing reductions in RPN scores and resulting in improvement indices up to 5.0. We recommend risk analysis as an addition to the usual analytical validation, as the FMEA enabled us to detect previously unidentified risks.

  18. A Big Data Analysis Approach for Rail Failure Risk Assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jamshidi, Ali; Faghih-Roohi, Shahrzad; Hajizadeh, Siamak; Núñez, Alfredo; Babuska, Robert; Dollevoet, Rolf; Li, Zili; De Schutter, Bart

    2017-08-01

    Railway infrastructure monitoring is a vital task to ensure rail transportation safety. A rail failure could result in not only a considerable impact on train delays and maintenance costs, but also on safety of passengers. In this article, the aim is to assess the risk of a rail failure by analyzing a type of rail surface defect called squats that are detected automatically among the huge number of records from video cameras. We propose an image processing approach for automatic detection of squats, especially severe types that are prone to rail breaks. We measure the visual length of the squats and use them to model the failure risk. For the assessment of the rail failure risk, we estimate the probability of rail failure based on the growth of squats. Moreover, we perform severity and crack growth analyses to consider the impact of rail traffic loads on defects in three different growth scenarios. The failure risk estimations are provided for several samples of squats with different crack growth lengths on a busy rail track of the Dutch railway network. The results illustrate the practicality and efficiency of the proposed approach. © 2017 The Authors Risk Analysis published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society for Risk Analysis.

  19. Rocky Flats Plant Live-Fire Range Risk Analysis Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nicolosi, S.L.; Rodriguez, M.A.

    1994-04-01

    The objective of the Live-Fire Range Risk Analysis Report (RAR) is to provide an authorization basis for operation as required by DOE 5480.16. The existing Live-Fire Range does not have a safety analysis-related authorization basis. EG&G Rocky Flats, Inc. has worked with DOE and its representatives to develop a format and content description for development of an RAR for the Live-Fire Range. Development of the RAR is closely aligned with development of the design for a baffle system to control risks from errant projectiles. DOE 5480.16 requires either an RAR or a safety analysis report (SAR) for live-fire ranges. An RAR rather than a SAR was selected in order to gain flexibility to more closely address the safety analysis and conduct of operation needs for a live-fire range in a cost-effective manner.

  20. Quantitative risk analysis of a space shuttle subsystem

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frank, M.V.

    1989-01-01

    This paper reports that in an attempt to investigate methods for risk management other than qualitative analysis techniques, NASA has funded pilot study quantitative risk analyses for space shuttle subsystems. The authors performed one such study of two shuttle subsystems with McDonnell Douglas Astronautics Company. The subsystems were the auxiliary power units (APU) on the orbiter, and the hydraulic power units on the solid rocket booster. The technology and results of the APU study are presented in this paper. Drawing from a rich in-flight database as well as from a wealth of tests and analyses, the study quantitatively assessed the risk of APU-initiated scenarios on the shuttle during all phases of a flight mission. Damage states of interest were loss of crew/vehicle, aborted mission, and launch scrub. A quantitative risk analysis approach to deciding on important items for risk management was contrasted with the current NASA failure mode and effects analysis/critical item list approach

  1. Automated nutrient analyses in seawater

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Whitledge, T.E.; Malloy, S.C.; Patton, C.J.; Wirick, C.D.

    1981-02-01

    This manual was assembled for use as a guide for analyzing the nutrient content of seawater samples collected in the marine coastal zone of the Northeast United States and the Bering Sea. Some modifications (changes in dilution or sample pump tube sizes) may be necessary to achieve optimum measurements in very pronounced oligotrophic, eutrophic or brackish areas. Information is presented under the following section headings: theory and mechanics of automated analysis; continuous flow system description; operation of autoanalyzer system; cookbook of current nutrient methods; automated analyzer and data analysis software; computer interfacing and hardware modifications; and trouble shooting. The three appendixes are entitled: references and additional reading; manifold components and chemicals; and software listings. (JGB)

  2. The characterisation and evaluation of uncertainty in probabilistic risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Parry, G.W.; Winter, P.W.

    1980-10-01

    The sources of uncertainty in probabilistic risk analysis are discussed using the event/fault tree methodology as an example. The role of statistics in quantifying these uncertainties is investigated. A class of uncertainties is identified which is, at present, unquantifiable, using either classical or Bayesian statistics. It is argued that Bayesian statistics is the more appropriate vehicle for the probabilistic analysis of rare events and a short review is given with some discussion on the representation of ignorance. (author)

  3. Computer code for general analysis of radon risks (GARR)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ginevan, M.

    1984-09-01

    This document presents a computer model for general analysis of radon risks that allow the user to specify a large number of possible models with a small number of simple commands. The model is written in a version of BASIC which conforms closely to the American National Standards Institute (ANSI) definition for minimal BASIC and thus is readily modified for use on a wide variety of computers and, in particular, microcomputers. Model capabilities include generation of single-year life tables from 5-year abridged data, calculation of multiple-decrement life tables for lung cancer for the general population, smokers, and nonsmokers, and a cohort lung cancer risk calculation that allows specification of level and duration of radon exposure, the form of the risk model, and the specific population assumed at risk. 36 references, 8 figures, 7 tables

  4. Downside Risk analysis applied to the Hedge Funds universe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perelló, Josep

    2007-09-01

    Hedge Funds are considered as one of the portfolio management sectors which shows a fastest growing for the past decade. An optimal Hedge Fund management requires an appropriate risk metrics. The classic CAPM theory and its Ratio Sharpe fail to capture some crucial aspects due to the strong non-Gaussian character of Hedge Funds statistics. A possible way out to this problem while keeping the CAPM simplicity is the so-called Downside Risk analysis. One important benefit lies in distinguishing between good and bad returns, that is: returns greater or lower than investor's goal. We revisit most popular Downside Risk indicators and provide new analytical results on them. We compute these measures by taking the Credit Suisse/Tremont Investable Hedge Fund Index Data and with the Gaussian case as a benchmark. In this way, an unusual transversal lecture of the existing Downside Risk measures is provided.

  5. Quantitative risk analysis of the pipeline GASDUC III - solutions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Silva, Edmilson P.; Bettoni, Izabel Cristina [PETROBRAS, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

    2009-07-01

    In this work the quantitative risks analysis to the external public of the Pipeline Cabiunas - REDUC (GASDUC III), with 180 km, linking the municipalities of Macae and Duque de Caxias - RJ was performed by the Companies PETROBRAS and ITSEMAP do Brasil. In addition to the large diameter of the pipeline 38 inches and high operation pressure 100 kgf/cm{sup 2} operating with natural gas through several densely populated areas. Initially, the individual risk contours were calculated without considering mitigating measures, obtaining as result the individual risk contour with frequencies of 1x10{sup -06} per year involving sensitive occupations and therefore considered unacceptable when compared with the INEA criterion. The societal risk was calculated for eight densely populated areas and their respective FN-curves situated below the advised limit established by INEA, except for two areas that required the proposal of additional mitigating measures to the reduction of societal risk. Regarding to societal risk, the FN-curve should be below the advised limit presented in the Technical Instruction of INEA. The individual and societal risk were reassessed incorporating some mitigating measures and the results situated below the advised limits established by INEA and PETROBRAS has obtained the license for installation of the pipeline. (author)

  6. Cancer risk factors in Korean news media: a content analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kye, Su Yeon; Kwon, Jeong Hyun; Kim, Yong-Chan; Shim, Minsun; Kim, Jee Hyun; Cho, Hyunsoon; Jung, Kyu Won; Park, Keeho

    2015-01-01

    Little is known about the news coverage of cancer risk factors in Korea. This study aimed to examine how the news media encompasses a wide array of content regarding cancer risk factors and related cancer sites, and investigate whether news coverage of cancer risk factors is congruent with the actual prevalence of the disease. A content analysis was conducted on 1,138 news stories covered during a 5-year period between 2008 and 2012. The news stories were selected from nationally representative media in Korea. Information was collected about cancer risk factors and cancer sites. Of various cancer risk factors, occupational and environmental exposures appeared most frequently in the news. Breast cancer was mentioned the most in relation to cancer sites. Breast, cervical, prostate, and skin cancer were overrepresented in the media in comparison to incidence and mortality cases, whereas lung, thyroid, liver, and stomach cancer were underrepresented. To our knowledge, this research is the first investigation dealing with news coverage about cancer risk factors in Korea. The study findings show occupational and environmental exposures are emphasized more than personal lifestyle factors; further, more prevalent cancers in developed countries have greater media coverage, not reflecting the realities of the disease. The findings may help health journalists and other health storytellers to develop effective ways to communicate cancer risk factors.

  7. Analysis of coastal protection under rising flood risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Megan J. Lickley

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Infrastructure located along the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf coasts is exposed to rising risk of flooding from sea level rise, increasing storm surge, and subsidence. In these circumstances coastal management commonly based on 100-year flood maps assuming current climatology is no longer adequate. A dynamic programming cost–benefit analysis is applied to the adaptation decision, illustrated by application to an energy facility in Galveston Bay. Projections of several global climate models provide inputs to estimates of the change in hurricane and storm surge activity as well as the increase in sea level. The projected rise in physical flood risk is combined with estimates of flood damage and protection costs in an analysis of the multi-period nature of adaptation choice. The result is a planning method, using dynamic programming, which is appropriate for investment and abandonment decisions under rising coastal risk.

  8. Analysis of dependent failures in risk assessment and reliability evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fleming, K.N.; Mosleh, A.; Kelley, A.P. Jr.; Gas-Cooled Reactors Associates, La Jolla, CA)

    1983-01-01

    The ability to estimate the risk of potential reactor accidents is largely determined by the ability to analyze statistically dependent multiple failures. The importance of dependent failures has been indicated in recent probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) studies as well as in reports of reactor operating experiences. This article highlights the importance of several different types of dependent failures from the perspective of the risk and reliability analyst and provides references to the methods and data available for their analysis. In addition to describing the current state of the art, some recent advances, pitfalls, misconceptions, and limitations of some approaches to dependent failure analysis are addressed. A summary is included of the discourse on this subject, which is presented in the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers/American Nuclear Society PRA Procedures Guide

  9. Risk analysis and priority setting for environmental policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Travis, C.C.

    1991-01-01

    There is a growing realization that the demand for funding to correct our nation's environmental problems will soon outstrip available resources. In the hazardous waste area alone, the estimated cost of remediating Superfund sites ranges from $32 billion to $80 billion. Numerous other areas of competing for these same financial resources. These include ozone depletion, global warming, the protection of endangered species and wetlands, toxic air pollution, carcinogenic pesticides, and urban smog. In response to this imbalance in the supply and demand for national funds, several political constituencies are calling for the use of risk assessment as a tool in the prioritization of research and budget needs. Comparative risk analysis offers a logical framework in which to organize information about complex environmental problems. Risk analysis allows policy analysts to make resource allocation decisions on the basis of scientific judgement rather than political expediency

  10. Analysis of Historical Rainfall Data and Associated Risks on Rain ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    distribution over the last six decades and tries to do a number of weather induced risk analysis in relation to different rainfall events that has special importance to the local farmers. Different type of rainfall events over the past six decades was assessed in relation to Ethiopian rain fed” tef” production. Tef is an important ...

  11. Yucca Mountain transportation routes: Preliminary characterization and risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Souleyrette, R.R. II; Sathisan, S.K.; di Bartolo, R.

    1991-01-01

    This report presents appendices related to the preliminary assessment and risk analysis for high-level radioactive waste transportation routes to the proposed Yucca Mountain Project repository. Information includes data on population density, traffic volume, ecologically sensitive areas, and accident history

  12. Design of Process Displays based on Risk Analysis Techniques

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Paulsen, Jette Lundtang

    -tions. On the basis of her experience with the design of display systems; with risk analysis methods and from 8 years, as an engi-neer-on-shift at a research reactor, the author developed a method to elicit necessary information to the operator. The method, a combination of a Goal-Tree and a Fault-Tree, is described...

  13. Quantitative risk analysis as a basis for emergency planning

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yogui, Regiane Tiemi Teruya [Bureau Veritas do Brasil, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Macedo, Eduardo Soares de [Instituto de Pesquisas Tecnologicas (IPT), Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil)

    2009-07-01

    Several environmental accidents happened in Brazil and in the world during the 70's and 80's. This strongly motivated the preparation for emergencies in the chemical and petrochemical industries. Environmental accidents affect the environment and the communities that are neighbor to the industrial facilities. The present study aims at subsidizing and providing orientation to develop Emergency Planning from the data obtained on Quantitative Risk Analysis, elaborated according to the Technical Standard P4.261/03 from CETESB (Sao Paulo Environmental Agency). It was observed, during the development of the research, that the data generated on these studies need a complementation and a deeper analysis, so that it is possible to use them on the Emergency Plans. The main issues that were analyzed and discussed on this study were the reevaluation of hazard identification for the emergency plans, the consequences and vulnerability analysis for the response planning, the risk communication, and the preparation to respond to the emergencies of the communities exposed to manageable risks. As a result, the study intends to improve the interpretation and use of the data deriving from the Quantitative Risk Analysis to develop the emergency plans. (author)

  14. Medicine and ionizing radiation: help cards for risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gauron, C.

    2004-01-01

    Following an inquiry in Ile de France on radiation protection, a scientific committee associating several institutions and different experts has elaborated cards for help to risk analysis. A first series of this cards is published in this issue documents for the labour physician and will be next on Internet. the other fields of medical use will be covered in the future. (N.C.)

  15. [Modular risk analysis for assessing multiple waste sites]: Proceedings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Whelan, G.

    1994-01-01

    This document contains proceedings from the Integrated Planning Workshop from Strategic Planning to Baselining and Other Objectives. Topics discussed include: stakeholder involvement; regulations; future site use planning; site integration and baseline methods; risk analysis in decision making; land uses; and economics in decision making. Individual records have been processed separately for the database

  16. Seismic risk analysis for General Electric Plutonium Facility, Pleasanton, California

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1978-01-01

    This report presents the results of a seismic risk analysis that focuses on all possible sources of seismic activity, with the exception of the postulated Verona Fault. The best estimate curve indicates that the Vallecitos facility will experience 30% g with a return period of roughly 130 years and 60% g with a return period of roughly 700 years

  17. RiskChanges Spatial Decision Support system for the analysis of changing multi-hazard risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Westen, Cees; Zhang, Kaixi; Bakker, Wim; Andrejchenko, Vera; Berlin, Julian; Olyazadeh, Roya; Cristal, Irina

    2015-04-01

    Within the framework of the EU FP7 Marie Curie Project CHANGES and the EU FP7 Copernicus project INCREO a spatial decision support system was developed with the aim to analyse the effect of risk reduction planning alternatives on reducing the risk now and in the future, and support decision makers in selecting the best alternatives. Central to the SDSS are the stakeholders. The envisaged users of the system are organizations involved in planning of risk reduction measures, and that have staff capable of visualizing and analyzing spatial data at a municipal scale. The SDSS should be able to function in different countries with different legal frameworks and with organizations with different mandates. These could be subdivided into Civil protection organization with the mandate to design disaster response plans, Expert organizations with the mandate to design structural risk reduction measures (e.g. dams, dikes, check-dams etc), and planning organizations with the mandate to make land development plans. The SDSS can be used in different ways: analyzing the current level of risk, analyzing the best alternatives for risk reduction, the evaluation of the consequences of possible future scenarios to the risk levels, and the evaluation how different risk reduction alternatives will lead to risk reduction under different future scenarios. The SDSS is developed based on open source software and following open standards, for code as well as for data formats and service interfaces. Code development was based upon open source software as well. The architecture of the system is modular. The various parts of the system are loosely coupled, extensible, using standards for interoperability, flexible and web-based. The Spatial Decision Support System is composed of a number of integrated components. The Risk Assessment component allows to carry out spatial risk analysis, with different degrees of complexity, ranging from simple exposure (overlay of hazard and assets maps) to

  18. Predicting complication risk in spine surgery: a prospective analysis of a novel risk assessment tool.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Veeravagu, Anand; Li, Amy; Swinney, Christian; Tian, Lu; Moraff, Adrienne; Azad, Tej D; Cheng, Ivan; Alamin, Todd; Hu, Serena S; Anderson, Robert L; Shuer, Lawrence; Desai, Atman; Park, Jon; Olshen, Richard A; Ratliff, John K

    2017-07-01

    OBJECTIVE The ability to assess the risk of adverse events based on known patient factors and comorbidities would provide more effective preoperative risk stratification. Present risk assessment in spine surgery is limited. An adverse event prediction tool was developed to predict the risk of complications after spine surgery and tested on a prospective patient cohort. METHODS The spinal Risk Assessment Tool (RAT), a novel instrument for the assessment of risk for patients undergoing spine surgery that was developed based on an administrative claims database, was prospectively applied to 246 patients undergoing 257 spinal procedures over a 3-month period. Prospectively collected data were used to compare the RAT to the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) and the American College of Surgeons National Surgery Quality Improvement Program (ACS NSQIP) Surgical Risk Calculator. Study end point was occurrence and type of complication after spine surgery. RESULTS The authors identified 69 patients (73 procedures) who experienced a complication over the prospective study period. Cardiac complications were most common (10.2%). Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were calculated to compare complication outcomes using the different assessment tools. Area under the curve (AUC) analysis showed comparable predictive accuracy between the RAT and the ACS NSQIP calculator (0.670 [95% CI 0.60-0.74] in RAT, 0.669 [95% CI 0.60-0.74] in NSQIP). The CCI was not accurate in predicting complication occurrence (0.55 [95% CI 0.48-0.62]). The RAT produced mean probabilities of 34.6% for patients who had a complication and 24% for patients who did not (p = 0.0003). The generated predicted values were stratified into low, medium, and high rates. For the RAT, the predicted complication rate was 10.1% in the low-risk group (observed rate 12.8%), 21.9% in the medium-risk group (observed 31.8%), and 49.7% in the high-risk group (observed 41.2%). The ACS NSQIP calculator consistently

  19. Estimation of nutrients and organic matter in Korean swine slurry using multiple regression analysis of physical and chemical properties.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suresh, Arumuganainar; Choi, Hong Lim

    2011-10-01

    Swine waste land application has increased due to organic fertilization, but excess application in an arable system can cause environmental risk. Therefore, in situ characterizations of such resources are important prior to application. To explore this, 41 swine slurry samples were collected from Korea, and wide differences were observed in the physico-biochemical properties. However, significant (Phydrometer, EC meter, drying oven and pH meter were found useful to estimate Mn, Fe, Ca, K, Al, Na, N and 5-day biochemical oxygen demands (BOD₅) at improved R² values of 0.83, 0.82, 0.77, 0.75, 0.67, 0.47, 0.88 and 0.70, respectively. The results from this study suggest that multiple property regressions can facilitate the prediction of micronutrients and organic matter much better than a single property regression for livestock waste. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Effects of human immunodeficiency virus and metabolic complications on myocardial nutrient metabolism, blood flow, and oxygen consumption: a cross-sectional analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cade W Todd

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background In the general population, peripheral metabolic complications (MC increase the risk for left ventricular dysfunction. Human immunodeficiency virus infection (HIV and combination anti-retroviral therapy (cART are associated with MC, left ventricular dysfunction, and a higher incidence of cardiovascular events than the general population. We examined whether myocardial nutrient metabolism and left ventricular dysfunction are related to one another and worse in HIV infected men treated with cART vs. HIV-negative men with or without MC. Methods Prospective, cross-sectional study of myocardial glucose and fatty acid metabolism and left ventricular function in HIV+ and HIV-negative men with and without MC. Myocardial glucose utilization (GLUT, and fatty acid oxidation and utilization rates were quantified using 11C-glucose and 11C-palmitate and myocardial positron emission tomography (PET imaging in four groups of men: 23 HIV+ men with MC+ (HIV+/MC+, 42 ± 6 yrs, 15 HIV+ men without MC (HIV+/MC-, 41 ± 6 yrs, 9 HIV-negative men with MC (HIV-/MC+, 33 ± 5 yrs, and 22 HIV-negative men without MC (HIV-/MC-, 25 ± 6 yrs. Left ventricular function parameters were quantified using echocardiography. Results Myocardial glucose utilization was similar among groups, however when normalized to fasting plasma insulin concentration (GLUT/INS was lower (p Conclusion Men with metabolic complications, irrespective of HIV infection, had lower basal myocardial glucose utilization rates per unit insulin that were related to left ventricular diastolic impairments, indicating that well-controlled HIV infection is not an independent risk factor for blunted myocardial glucose utilization per unit of insulin. Trial Registration NIH Clinical Trials NCT00656851

  1. SU-F-T-243: Major Risks in Radiotherapy. A Review Based On Risk Analysis Literature

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    López-Tarjuelo, J; Guasp-Tortajada, M; Iglesias-Montenegro, N; Monasor-Denia, P [Servicio de Radiofísica y Protección Radiológica, Consorcio Hospitalario Provincial de Castellón, Castellón de la Plana, España/Spain (Spain); Bouché-Babiloni, A; Morillo-Macías, V; Ferrer-Albiach, C [Servicio de Oncología Radioterápica, Consorcio Hospitalario Provincial de Castellón, Castellón de la Plana, España/Spain (Spain)

    2016-06-15

    Purpose: We present a literature review of risk analyses in radiotherapy to highlight the most reported risks and facilitate the spread of this valuable information so that professionals can be aware of these major threats before performing their own studies. Methods: We considered studies with at least an estimation of the probability of occurrence of an adverse event (O) and its associated severity (S). They cover external beam radiotherapy, brachytherapy, intraoperative radiotherapy, and stereotactic techniques. We selected only the works containing a detailed ranked series of elements or failure modes and focused on the first fully reported quartile as much. Afterward, we sorted the risk elements according to a regular radiotherapy procedure so that the resulting groups were cited in several works and be ranked in this way. Results: 29 references published between 2007 and February 2016 were studied. Publication trend has been generally rising. The most employed analysis has been the Failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA). Among references, we selected 20 works listing 258 ranked risk elements. They were sorted into 31 groups appearing at least in two different works. 11 groups appeared in at least 5 references and 5 groups did it in 7 or more papers. These last sets of risks where choosing another set of images or plan for planning or treating, errors related with contours, errors in patient positioning for treatment, human mistakes when programming treatments, and planning errors. Conclusion: There is a sufficient amount and variety of references for identifying which failure modes or elements should be addressed in a radiotherapy department before attempting a specific analysis. FMEA prevailed, but other studies such as “risk matrix” or “occurrence × severity” analyses can also lead professionals’ efforts. Risk associated with human actions ranks very high; therefore, they should be automated or at least peer-reviewed.

  2. SU-F-T-243: Major Risks in Radiotherapy. A Review Based On Risk Analysis Literature

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    López-Tarjuelo, J; Guasp-Tortajada, M; Iglesias-Montenegro, N; Monasor-Denia, P; Bouché-Babiloni, A; Morillo-Macías, V; Ferrer-Albiach, C

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: We present a literature review of risk analyses in radiotherapy to highlight the most reported risks and facilitate the spread of this valuable information so that professionals can be aware of these major threats before performing their own studies. Methods: We considered studies with at least an estimation of the probability of occurrence of an adverse event (O) and its associated severity (S). They cover external beam radiotherapy, brachytherapy, intraoperative radiotherapy, and stereotactic techniques. We selected only the works containing a detailed ranked series of elements or failure modes and focused on the first fully reported quartile as much. Afterward, we sorted the risk elements according to a regular radiotherapy procedure so that the resulting groups were cited in several works and be ranked in this way. Results: 29 references published between 2007 and February 2016 were studied. Publication trend has been generally rising. The most employed analysis has been the Failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA). Among references, we selected 20 works listing 258 ranked risk elements. They were sorted into 31 groups appearing at least in two different works. 11 groups appeared in at least 5 references and 5 groups did it in 7 or more papers. These last sets of risks where choosing another set of images or plan for planning or treating, errors related with contours, errors in patient positioning for treatment, human mistakes when programming treatments, and planning errors. Conclusion: There is a sufficient amount and variety of references for identifying which failure modes or elements should be addressed in a radiotherapy department before attempting a specific analysis. FMEA prevailed, but other studies such as “risk matrix” or “occurrence × severity” analyses can also lead professionals’ efforts. Risk associated with human actions ranks very high; therefore, they should be automated or at least peer-reviewed.

  3. Risk factors for deep vein thrombosis and pulmonary embolism after traumatic injury: A competing risks analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Gent, Jan-Michael; Calvo, Richard Yee; Zander, Ashley L; Olson, Erik J; Sise, C Beth; Sise, Michael J; Shackford, Steven R

    2017-12-01

    Venous thromboembolism, including deep vein thrombosis (DVT) and pulmonary embolism (PE), is typically reported as a composite measure of the quality of trauma center care. Given that recent data suggesting postinjury DVT and PE are distinct clinical processes, a better understanding may result from analyzing them as independent, competing events. Using competing risks analysis, we evaluated our hypothesis that the risk factors and timing of postinjury DVT and PE are different. We examined all adult trauma patients admitted to our Level I trauma center from July 2006 to December 2011 who received at least one surveillance duplex ultrasound of the lower extremities and who were at high risk or greater for DVT. Outcomes included DVT and PE events, and time-to-event from admission. We used competing risks analysis to evaluate risk factors for DVT while accounting for PE as a competing event, and vice versa. Of 2,370 patients, 265 (11.2%) had at least one venous thromboembolism event, 235 DVT only, 19 PE only, 11 DVT and PE. Within 2 days of admission, 38% of DVT cases had occurred compared with 26% of PE. Competing risks modeling of DVT as primary event identified older age, severe injury (Injury Severity Score, ≥ 15), mechanical ventilation longer than 4 days, active cancer, history of DVT or PE, major venous repair, male sex, and prophylactic enoxaparin and prophylactic heparin as associated risk factors. Modeling of PE as the primary event showed younger age, nonsevere injury (Injury Severity Score, risk factors for PE and DVT after injury were different, suggesting that they are clinically distinct events that merit independent consideration. Many DVT events occurred early despite prophylaxis, bringing into question the preventability of postinjury DVT. We recommend trauma center quality reporting program measures be revised to account for DVT and PE as unique events. Epidemiologic, level III.

  4. Key attributes of the SAPHIRE risk and reliability analysis software for risk-informed probabilistic applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, Curtis; Knudsen, James; Kvarfordt, Kellie; Wood, Ted

    2008-01-01

    The Idaho National Laboratory is a primary developer of probabilistic risk and reliability analysis (PRRA) tools, dating back over 35 years. Evolving from mainframe-based software, the current state-of-the-practice has led to the creation of the SAPHIRE software. Currently, agencies such as the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, the National Aeronautics and Aerospace Agency, the Department of Energy, and the Department of Defense use version 7 of the SAPHIRE software for many of their risk-informed activities. In order to better understand and appreciate the power of software as part of risk-informed applications, we need to recall that our current analysis methods and solution methods have built upon pioneering work done 30-40 years ago. We contrast this work with the current capabilities in the SAPHIRE analysis package. As part of this discussion, we provide information for both the typical features and special analysis capabilities, which are available. We also present the application and results typically found with state-of-the-practice PRRA models. By providing both a high-level and detailed look at the SAPHIRE software, we give a snapshot in time for the current use of software tools in a risk-informed decision arena

  5. A scenario-based procedure for seismic risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kluegel, J.-U.; Mualchin, L.; Panza, G.F.

    2006-12-01

    A new methodology for seismic risk analysis based on probabilistic interpretation of deterministic or scenario-based hazard analysis, in full compliance with the likelihood principle and therefore meeting the requirements of modern risk analysis, has been developed. The proposed methodology can easily be adjusted to deliver its output in a format required for safety analysts and civil engineers. The scenario-based approach allows the incorporation of all available information collected in a geological, seismotectonic and geotechnical database of the site of interest as well as advanced physical modelling techniques to provide a reliable and robust deterministic design basis for civil infrastructures. The robustness of this approach is of special importance for critical infrastructures. At the same time a scenario-based seismic hazard analysis allows the development of the required input for probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) as required by safety analysts and insurance companies. The scenario-based approach removes the ambiguity in the results of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) which relies on the projections of Gutenberg-Richter (G-R) equation. The problems in the validity of G-R projections, because of incomplete to total absence of data for making the projections, are still unresolved. Consequently, the information from G-R must not be used in decisions for design of critical structures or critical elements in a structure. The scenario-based methodology is strictly based on observable facts and data and complemented by physical modelling techniques, which can be submitted to a formalised validation process. By means of sensitivity analysis, knowledge gaps related to lack of data can be dealt with easily, due to the limited amount of scenarios to be investigated. The proposed seismic risk analysis can be used with confidence for planning, insurance and engineering applications. (author)

  6. Risk Assessment of Healthcare Waste by Preliminary Hazard Analysis Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pouran Morovati

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Introduction and purpose: Improper management of healthcare waste (HCW can pose considerable risks to human health and the environment and cause serious problems in developing countries such as Iran. In this study, we sought to determine the hazards of HCW in the public hospitals affiliated to Abadan School of Medicine using the preliminary hazard analysis (PHA method. Methods: In this descriptive and analytic study, health risk assessment of HCW in government hospitals affiliated to Abadan School of Medicine (4 public hospitals was carried out by using PHA in the summer of  2016. Results: We noted the high risk of sharps and infectious wastes. Considering the dual risk of injury and disease transmission, sharps were classified in the very high-risk group, and pharmaceutical and chemical and radioactive wastes were classified in the medium-risk group. Sharps posed the highest risk, while pharmaceutical and chemical wastes had the lowest risk. Among the various stages of waste management, the waste treatment stage was the most hazardous in all the studied hospitals. Conclusion: To diminish the risks associated with healthcare waste management in the studied hospitals, adequate training of healthcare workers and care providers, provision of suitable personal protective and transportation equipment, and supervision of the environmental health manager of hospitals should be considered by the authorities.  

  7. 76 FR 76103 - Privacy Act; Notice of Proposed Rulemaking: State-78, Risk Analysis and Management Records

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-12-06

    ... Rulemaking: State-78, Risk Analysis and Management Records SUMMARY: Notice is hereby given that the... portions of the Risk Analysis and Management (RAM) Records, State-78, system of records contain criminal...) * * * (2) * * * Risk Analysis and Management Records, STATE-78. * * * * * (b) * * * (1) * * * Risk Analysis...

  8. The integration methods of fuzzy fault mode and effect analysis and fault tree analysis for risk analysis of yogurt production

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aprilia, Ayu Rizky; Santoso, Imam; Ekasari, Dhita Murita

    2017-05-01

    Yogurt is a product based on milk, which has beneficial effects for health. The process for the production of yogurt is very susceptible to failure because it involves bacteria and fermentation. For an industry, the risks may cause harm and have a negative impact. In order for a product to be successful and profitable, it requires the analysis of risks that may occur during the production process. Risk analysis can identify the risks in detail and prevent as well as determine its handling, so that the risks can be minimized. Therefore, this study will analyze the risks of the production process with a case study in CV.XYZ. The method used in this research is the Fuzzy Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (fuzzy FMEA) and Fault Tree Analysis (FTA). The results showed that there are 6 risks from equipment variables, raw material variables, and process variables. Those risks include the critical risk, which is the risk of a lack of an aseptic process, more specifically if starter yogurt is damaged due to contamination by fungus or other bacteria and a lack of sanitation equipment. The results of quantitative analysis of FTA showed that the highest probability is the probability of the lack of an aseptic process, with a risk of 3.902%. The recommendations for improvement include establishing SOPs (Standard Operating Procedures), which include the process, workers, and environment, controlling the starter of yogurt and improving the production planning and sanitation equipment using hot water immersion.

  9. Risk and sensitivity analysis in relation to external events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alzbutas, R.; Urbonas, R.; Augutis, J.

    2001-01-01

    This paper presents risk and sensitivity analysis of external events impacts on the safe operation in general and in particular the Ignalina Nuclear Power Plant safety systems. Analysis is based on the deterministic and probabilistic assumptions and assessment of the external hazards. The real statistic data are used as well as initial external event simulation. The preliminary screening criteria are applied. The analysis of external event impact on the NPP safe operation, assessment of the event occurrence, sensitivity analysis, and recommendations for safety improvements are performed for investigated external hazards. Such events as aircraft crash, extreme rains and winds, forest fire and flying parts of the turbine are analysed. The models are developed and probabilities are calculated. As an example for sensitivity analysis the model of aircraft impact is presented. The sensitivity analysis takes into account the uncertainty features raised by external event and its model. Even in case when the external events analysis show rather limited danger, the sensitivity analysis can determine the highest influence causes. These possible variations in future can be significant for safety level and risk based decisions. Calculations show that external events cannot significantly influence the safety level of the Ignalina NPP operation, however the events occurrence and propagation can be sufficiently uncertain.(author)

  10. Safety- and Risk Analysis Activities in Chemical Industry in Europe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kozine, Igor; Duijm, Nijs Jan; Lauridsen Kurt

    2001-01-01

    The current paper gives an overview of the legislation and the methods used in safety and risk management in the chemical industry within Europe and in particular within the European Union. The paper is based on a report that has been written for the SOS-1 project under the Nordic nuclear safety research (NKS). Safety- and risk-related matters in the process industry, in particular, in chemical, within the EU are subject to consideration at three levels: (1) EU legislation, (2) European/intemational standardisation, and (3) socio-economic analysis. EC Directives define the 'essential requirements', e.g., protection of health and safety, that must be fulfilled when goods are placed on the market or some industry is put into operation. The European standards bodies (CEN, CENELEC and ETSI) have the task of establishing the corresponding technical specifications, meeting the essential requirements of the Directives, compliance with which will provide a presumption of conformity with the essential requirements. Such specifications are referred to as 'harmonised standards'. Compliance with harmonised standards remains voluntary, and manufacturers are free to choose any other technical solution that provides compliance with the essential requirements. This view is stated in the 'New Approach' to technical harmonisation and standardisation (details can be found on the web page: http://europe.eu.int/comm/enterprise/newapproach/standardization/index .html). Standardisation as well as the regulation of technical risks is increasingly being undertaken at European or international level. The European legislator limits its role to the affirmation of overall objectives, and leaves it to the economic players to draw up the technical procedures and standards to specify in detail the ways and means of attaining them. Many countries have introduced requirements that new legislation and/or administrative regulations be subject to socio-economic analysis. In this respect there is a

  11. New risk metrics and mathematical tools for risk analysis: Current and future challenges

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Skandamis, Panagiotis N.; Andritsos, Nikolaos; Psomas, Antonios; Paramythiotis, Spyridon

    2015-01-01

    The current status of the food safety supply world wide, has led Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and World Health Organization (WHO) to establishing Risk Analysis as the single framework for building food safety control programs. A series of guidelines and reports that detail out the various steps in Risk Analysis, namely Risk Management, Risk Assessment and Risk Communication is available. The Risk Analysis approach enables integration between operational food management systems, such as Hazard Analysis Critical Control Points, public health and governmental decisions. To do that, a series of new Risk Metrics has been established as follows: i) the Appropriate Level of Protection (ALOP), which indicates the maximum numbers of illnesses in a population per annum, defined by quantitative risk assessments, and used to establish; ii) Food Safety Objective (FSO), which sets the maximum frequency and/or concentration of a hazard in a food at the time of consumption that provides or contributes to the ALOP. Given that ALOP is rather a metric of the public health tolerable burden (it addresses the total ‘failure’ that may be handled at a national level), it is difficult to be interpreted into control measures applied at the manufacturing level. Thus, a series of specific objectives and criteria for performance of individual processes and products have been established, all of them assisting in the achievement of FSO and hence, ALOP. In order to achieve FSO, tools quantifying the effect of processes and intrinsic properties of foods on survival and growth of pathogens are essential. In this context, predictive microbiology and risk assessment have offered an important assistance to Food Safety Management. Predictive modelling is the basis of exposure assessment and the development of stochastic and kinetic models, which are also available in the form of Web-based applications, e.g., COMBASE and Microbial Responses Viewer), or introduced into user

  12. New risk metrics and mathematical tools for risk analysis: Current and future challenges

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Skandamis, Panagiotis N., E-mail: pskan@aua.gr; Andritsos, Nikolaos, E-mail: pskan@aua.gr; Psomas, Antonios, E-mail: pskan@aua.gr; Paramythiotis, Spyridon, E-mail: pskan@aua.gr [Laboratory of Food Quality Control and Hygiene, Department of Food Science and Technology, Agricultural University of Athens, Iera Odos 75, 118 55, Athens (Greece)

    2015-01-22

    The current status of the food safety supply world wide, has led Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and World Health Organization (WHO) to establishing Risk Analysis as the single framework for building food safety control programs. A series of guidelines and reports that detail out the various steps in Risk Analysis, namely Risk Management, Risk Assessment and Risk Communication is available. The Risk Analysis approach enables integration between operational food management systems, such as Hazard Analysis Critical Control Points, public health and governmental decisions. To do that, a series of new Risk Metrics has been established as follows: i) the Appropriate Level of Protection (ALOP), which indicates the maximum numbers of illnesses in a population per annum, defined by quantitative risk assessments, and used to establish; ii) Food Safety Objective (FSO), which sets the maximum frequency and/or concentration of a hazard in a food at the time of consumption that provides or contributes to the ALOP. Given that ALOP is rather a metric of the public health tolerable burden (it addresses the total ‘failure’ that may be handled at a national level), it is difficult to be interpreted into control measures applied at the manufacturing level. Thus, a series of specific objectives and criteria for performance of individual processes and products have been established, all of them assisting in the achievement of FSO and hence, ALOP. In order to achieve FSO, tools quantifying the effect of processes and intrinsic properties of foods on survival and growth of pathogens are essential. In this context, predictive microbiology and risk assessment have offered an important assistance to Food Safety Management. Predictive modelling is the basis of exposure assessment and the development of stochastic and kinetic models, which are also available in the form of Web-based applications, e.g., COMBASE and Microbial Responses Viewer), or introduced into user

  13. New risk metrics and mathematical tools for risk analysis: Current and future challenges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skandamis, Panagiotis N.; Andritsos, Nikolaos; Psomas, Antonios; Paramythiotis, Spyridon

    2015-01-01

    The current status of the food safety supply world wide, has led Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and World Health Organization (WHO) to establishing Risk Analysis as the single framework for building food safety control programs. A series of guidelines and reports that detail out the various steps in Risk Analysis, namely Risk Management, Risk Assessment and Risk Communication is available. The Risk Analysis approach enables integration between operational food management systems, such as Hazard Analysis Critical Control Points, public health and governmental decisions. To do that, a series of new Risk Metrics has been established as follows: i) the Appropriate Level of Protection (ALOP), which indicates the maximum numbers of illnesses in a population per annum, defined by quantitative risk assessments, and used to establish; ii) Food Safety Objective (FSO), which sets the maximum frequency and/or concentration of a hazard in a food at the time of consumption that provides or contributes to the ALOP. Given that ALOP is rather a metric of the public health tolerable burden (it addresses the total `failure' that may be handled at a national level), it is difficult to be interpreted into control measures applied at the manufacturing level. Thus, a series of specific objectives and criteria for performance of individual processes and products have been established, all of them assisting in the achievement of FSO and hence, ALOP. In order to achieve FSO, tools quantifying the effect of processes and intrinsic properties of foods on survival and growth of pathogens are essential. In this context, predictive microbiology and risk assessment have offered an important assistance to Food Safety Management. Predictive modelling is the basis of exposure assessment and the development of stochastic and kinetic models, which are also available in the form of Web-based applications, e.g., COMBASE and Microbial Responses Viewer), or introduced into user-friendly softwares

  14. Nutrients, Foods, and Colorectal Cancer Prevention

    OpenAIRE

    Song, Mingyang; Garrett, Wendy S.; Chan, Andrew T.

    2015-01-01

    Diet has an important role in the development of colorectal cancer. In the past few decades, findings from extensive epidemiologic and experimental investigation have linked consumption of several foods and nutrients to the risk of colorectal neoplasia. Calcium, fiber, milk, and whole grain have been associated with a lower risk of colorectal cancer, and red meat and processed meat with an increased risk. There is substantial evidence for the potential chemopreventive effects of vitamin D, fo...

  15. Risk analysis of analytical validations by probabilistic modification of FMEA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barends, D M; Oldenhof, M T; Vredenbregt, M J; Nauta, M J

    2012-05-01

    Risk analysis is a valuable addition to validation of an analytical chemistry process, enabling not only detecting technical risks, but also risks related to human failures. Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) can be applied, using a categorical risk scoring of the occurrence, detection and severity of failure modes, and calculating the Risk Priority Number (RPN) to select failure modes for correction. We propose a probabilistic modification of FMEA, replacing the categorical scoring of occurrence and detection by their estimated relative frequency and maintaining the categorical scoring of severity. In an example, the results of traditional FMEA of a Near Infrared (NIR) analytical procedure used for the screening of suspected counterfeited tablets are re-interpretated by this probabilistic modification of FMEA. Using this probabilistic modification of FMEA, the frequency of occurrence of undetected failure mode(s) can be estimated quantitatively, for each individual failure mode, for a set of failure modes, and the full analytical procedure. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  16. Risk analysis for autonomous underwater vehicle operations in extreme environments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brito, Mario Paulo; Griffiths, Gwyn; Challenor, Peter

    2010-12-01

    Autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs) are used increasingly to explore hazardous marine environments. Risk assessment for such complex systems is based on subjective judgment and expert knowledge as much as on hard statistics. Here, we describe the use of a risk management process tailored to AUV operations, the implementation of which requires the elicitation of expert judgment. We conducted a formal judgment elicitation process where eight world experts in AUV design and operation were asked to assign a probability of AUV loss given the emergence of each fault or incident from the vehicle's life history of 63 faults and incidents. After discussing methods of aggregation and analysis, we show how the aggregated risk estimates obtained from the expert judgments were used to create a risk model. To estimate AUV survival with mission distance, we adopted a statistical survival function based on the nonparametric Kaplan-Meier estimator. We present theoretical formulations for the estimator, its variance, and confidence limits. We also present a numerical example where the approach is applied to estimate the probability that the Autosub3 AUV would survive a set of missions under Pine Island Glacier, Antarctica in January-March 2009. © 2010 Society for Risk Analysis.

  17. Dynamic risk analysis using bow-tie approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khakzad, Nima; Khan, Faisal; Amyotte, Paul

    2012-01-01

    Accident probability estimation is a common and central step to all quantitative risk assessment methods. Among many techniques available, bow-tie model (BT) is very popular because it represent the accident scenario altogether including causes and consequences. However, it suffers a static structure limiting its application in real-time monitoring and probability updating which are key factors in dynamic risk analysis. The present work is focused on using BT approach in a dynamic environment in which the occurrence probability of accident consequences changes. In this method, on one hand, failure probability of primary events of BT, leading to the top event, are developed using physical reliability models, and constantly revised as physical parameters (e.g., pressure, velocity, dimension, etc) change. And, on the other hand, the failure probability of safety barriers of the BT are periodically updated using Bayes’ theorem as new information becomes available over time. Finally, the resulting, updated BT is used to estimate the posterior probability of the consequences which in turn results in an updated risk profile. - Highlights: ► A methodology is proposed to make bow-tie method adapted for dynamic risk analysis. ► Physical reliability models are used to revise the top event. ► Bayes’ theorem is used to update the probability of safety barriers. ► The number of accidents in sequential time intervals is used to form likelihood function. ► The risk profile is updated for varying physical parameters and for different times.

  18. Advanced risk analysis of systems endangered by ESD

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kiss, Istvan; Szedenik, Norbert; Nemeth, Balint; Gulyas, Attila; Berta, Istvan

    2008-01-01

    Evaluation of industrial processes to determine risk of fire or explosion caused by electrostatic discharge (ESD) is even nowadays qualitative in most cases. Although qualitative analysis significantly helps to make an industrial process safer, it is based on the survey of the process and strongly subjective, depending on the estimation of an expert. Fault tree analysis is a traditional method to quantify the risk; it helps to select optimal protection. However, determination of top event, secondary events and basic events of the fault tree is difficult, especially the quantification of the probabilities of the basic events. In several cases no statistical information is available for most of the events. Using fuzzy membership functions instead of simple numbers for the quantification of probabilities makes it possible to take this uncertainty into consideration. Fuzzy logic based fault tree analysis of chemical processes were made to determine the effect of basic events on the probability of the top event (explosion or fire) and its reliability.

  19. Antepartum Fetal Monitoring and Spectral Analysis of Preterm Birth Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Păsăricără, Alexandru; Nemescu, Dragoş; Arotăriţei, Dragoş; Rotariu, Cristian

    2017-11-01

    The monitoring and analysis of antepartum fetal and maternal recordings is a research area of notable interest due to the relatively high value of preterm birth. The interest stems from the improvement of devices used for monitoring. The current paper presents the spectral analysis of antepartum heart rate recordings conducted during a study in Romania at the Cuza Voda Obstetrics and Gynecology Clinical Hospital from Iasi between 2010 and 2014. The study focuses on normal and preterm birth risk subjects in order to determine differences between these two types or recordings in terms of spectral analysis.

  20. Analysis of competing risk parameters in irradiated prostate cancer patients

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mayer, R.; Mayer, E.; Langsenlehner, U.; Hackl, A.; Pummer, K.; Quehenberger, F.; Feigl, G.

    2003-01-01

    Purpose: Retrospective competing risk analysis of prognostic factors in definitive-irradiated prostate cancer patients. Patients and Methods: Data of 652 patients were analyzed according to three age subgroups ( 75 years; Table 1). Pre-RT PSA values (median 13.4 ng/ml) were available for 340 patients. Adjuvant hormone therapy (n = 261) consisted either of orchiectomy (n = 151) or LHRH agonist with/without antiandrogen therapy or, in the early years, diethystilbestrol. Neoadjuvant hormone therapy (n = 31) using LHRH agonists was given 6 months before and during radiotherapy. Results: Biochemical failure was observed in 69/.340 patients, 5 years after biochemical failure, 64.9% of them also had failed clinically. The cumulative incidence of local failure (LF) and distant metastases (DM) was 9.4% and 37.2%, respectively; LF and DM at the same time were seen in 18.2%. On multivariate analysis (Tables 2 and 3), advanced stage (relative risk [RR] 4.54), pre-RT PSA > 20 ng/ml (RR 2.79) and poorly differentiated tumors (RR 2.96) were significant predictors of biochemical failure. Advanced stage increased the risk of LF (RR 2.18), DM (RR 3.66), and prostate cancer death (PCD; RR 4.30). Hormone therapy decreased the risk of biochemical failure (RR 0.67), DM (RR 0.59), and PCD (RR 0.60) without reaching statistical significance. Median follow-up was 7.6 years. Conclusion: Risk of biochemical failure was predicted by pre-RT PSA, stage, and grade; in patients with biochemical failure, the cumulative incidence of death from intercurrent diseases and PCD was 25.0% and 29.2% after 5 years, respectively. The risk of DM and PCD was predicted by stage and grade. Higher age (> 75 years) decreased the relative risk of LF, DM, and PCD significantly. (orig.)

  1. A free and open source QGIS plugin for flood risk analysis: FloodRisk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Albano, Raffaele; Sole, Aurelia; Mancusi, Leonardo

    2016-04-01

    An analysis of global statistics shows a substantial increase in flood damage over the past few decades. Moreover, it is expected that flood risk will continue to rise due to the combined effect of increasing numbers of people and economic assets in risk-prone areas and the effects of climate change. In order to increase the resilience of European economies and societies, the improvement of risk assessment and management has been pursued in the last years. This results in a wide range of flood analysis models of different complexities with substantial differences in underlying components needed for its implementation, as geographical, hydrological and social differences demand specific approaches in the different countries. At present, it is emerging the need of promote the creation of open, transparent, reliable and extensible tools for a comprehensive, context-specific and applicable flood risk analysis. In this context, the free and open-source Quantum GIS (QGIS) plugin "FloodRisk" is a good starting point to address this objective. The vision of the developers of this free and open source software (FOSS) is to combine the main features of state-of-the-art science, collaboration, transparency and interoperability in an initiative to assess and communicate flood risk worldwide and to assist authorities to facilitate the quality and fairness of flood risk management at multiple scales. Among the scientific community, this type of activity can be labelled as "participatory research", intended as adopting a set of techniques that "are interactive and collaborative" and reproducible, "providing a meaningful research experience that both promotes learning and generates knowledge and research data through a process of guided discovery"' (Albano et al., 2015). Moreover, this FOSS geospatial approach can lowering the financial barriers to understanding risks at national and sub-national levels through a spatio-temporal domain and can provide better and more complete

  2. Sensitivity Analysis of Launch Vehicle Debris Risk Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gee, Ken; Lawrence, Scott L.

    2010-01-01

    As part of an analysis of the loss of crew risk associated with an ascent abort system for a manned launch vehicle, a model was developed to predict the impact risk of the debris resulting from an explosion of the launch vehicle on the crew module. The model consisted of a debris catalog describing the number, size and imparted velocity of each piece of debris, a method to compute the trajectories of the debris and a method to calculate the impact risk given the abort trajectory of the crew module. The model provided a point estimate of the strike probability as a function of the debris catalog, the time of abort and the delay time between the abort and destruction of the launch vehicle. A study was conducted to determine the sensitivity of the strike probability to the various model input parameters and to develop a response surface model for use in the sensitivity analysis of the overall ascent abort risk model. The results of the sensitivity analysis and the response surface model are presented in this paper.

  3. Analysis of risk assessment methods for goods trucking

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yunyazova A.O.

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available the article considers models of risk assessment that can be applied to cargo transportation, for forecasting possible damage in the form of financial and material costs in order to reduce the percentage of probability of their occurrence. The analysis of risk by the method «Criterion. Event. Rule" is represented. This method is based on the collection of information by various methods, assigning an assessment to the identified risks, ranking and formulating a report on the analysis. It can be carried out as a fully manual mechanical method of information collecting and performing calculations or can be brought to an automated level from data collection to the delivery of finished results (but in this case some nuances that could significantly influence the outcome of the analysis can be ignored. The expert method is of particular importance, since it relies directly on human experience. In this case, a special role is played by the human factor. The collection of information and the assigned assessments to risk groups depend on the extent to which experts agree on this issue. The smaller the fluctuations in the values ​​of the estimates of the experts, the more accurate and optimal the results will be.

  4. Analysis of related risk factors for pancreatic fistula after pancreaticoduodenectomy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qi-Song Yu

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Objective: To explore the related risk factors for pancreatic fistula after pancreaticoduodenectomy to provide a theoretical evidence for effectively preventing the occurrence of pancreatic fistula. Methods: A total of 100 patients who were admitted in our hospital from January, 2012 to January, 2015 and had performed pancreaticoduodenectomy were included in the study. The related risk factors for developing pancreatic fistula were collected for single factor and Logistic multi-factor analysis. Results: Among the included patients, 16 had pancreatic fistula, and the total occurrence rate was 16% (16/100. The single-factor analysis showed that the upper abdominal operation history, preoperative bilirubin, pancreatic texture, pancreatic duct diameter, intraoperative amount of bleeding, postoperative hemoglobin, and application of somatostatin after operation were the risk factors for developing pancreatic fistula (P<0.05. The multi-factor analysis showed that the upper abdominal operation history, the soft pancreatic texture, small pancreatic duct diameter, and low postoperative hemoglobin were the dependent risk factors for developing pancreatic fistula (OR=4.162, 6.104, 5.613, 4.034, P<0.05. Conclusions: The occurrence of pancreatic fistula after pancreaticoduodenectomy is closely associated with the upper abdominal operation history, the soft pancreatic texture, small pancreatic duct diameter, and low postoperative hemoglobin; therefore, effective measures should be taken to reduce the occurrence of pancreatic fistula according to the patients’ own conditions.

  5. A comprehensive risk analysis of coastal zones in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Guanghui; Liu, Yijun; Wang, Hongbing; Wang, Xueying

    2014-03-01

    Although coastal zones occupy an important position in the world development, they face high risks and vulnerability to natural disasters because of their special locations and their high population density. In order to estimate their capability for crisis-response, various models have been established. However, those studies mainly focused on natural factors or conditions, which could not reflect the social vulnerability and regional disparities of coastal zones. Drawing lessons from the experiences of the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), this paper presents a comprehensive assessment strategy based on the mechanism of Risk Matrix Approach (RMA), which includes two aspects that are further composed of five second-class indicators. The first aspect, the probability phase, consists of indicators of economic conditions, social development, and living standards, while the second one, the severity phase, is comprised of geographic exposure and natural disasters. After weighing all of the above indicators by applying the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Delphi Method, the paper uses the comprehensive assessment strategy to analyze the risk indices of 50 coastal cities in China. The analytical results are presented in ESRI ArcGis10.1, which generates six different risk maps covering the aspects of economy, society, life, environment, disasters, and an overall assessment of the five areas. Furthermore, the study also investigates the spatial pattern of these risk maps, with detailed discussion and analysis of different risks in coastal cities.

  6. Risk analysis for renewable energy projects due to constraints arising

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prostean, G.; Vasar, C.; Prostean, O.; Vartosu, A.

    2016-02-01

    Starting from the target of the European Union (EU) to use renewable energy in the area that aims a binding target of 20% renewable energy in final energy consumption by 2020, this article illustrates the identification of risks for implementation of wind energy projects in Romania, which could lead to complex technical implications, social and administrative. In specific projects analyzed in this paper were identified critical bottlenecks in the future wind power supply chain and reasonable time periods that may arise. Renewable energy technologies have to face a number of constraints that delayed scaling-up their production process, their transport process, the equipment reliability, etc. so implementing these types of projects requiring complex specialized team, the coordination of which also involve specific risks. The research team applied an analytical risk approach to identify major risks encountered within a wind farm project developed in Romania in isolated regions with different particularities, configured for different geographical areas (hill and mountain locations in Romania). Identification of major risks was based on the conceptual model set up for the entire project implementation process. Throughout this conceptual model there were identified specific constraints of such process. Integration risks were examined by an empirical study based on the method HAZOP (Hazard and Operability). The discussion describes the analysis of our results implementation context of renewable energy projects in Romania and creates a framework for assessing energy supply to any entity from renewable sources.

  7. Failure mode effect analysis and fault tree analysis as a combined methodology in risk management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wessiani, N. A.; Yoshio, F.

    2018-04-01

    There have been many studies reported the implementation of Failure Mode Effect Analysis (FMEA) and Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) as a method in risk management. However, most of the studies usually only choose one of these two methods in their risk management methodology. On the other side, combining these two methods will reduce the drawbacks of each methods when implemented separately. This paper aims to combine the methodology of FMEA and FTA in assessing risk. A case study in the metal company will illustrate how this methodology can be implemented. In the case study, this combined methodology will assess the internal risks that occur in the production process. Further, those internal risks should be mitigated based on their level of risks.

  8. On the use of judgement in probabilistic risk analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Apostolakis, G

    1986-05-01

    The extensive use of judgement in risk studies creates several issues related to the perception of probabilities and the value of formal theories for uncertainty analysis. The direct assessment of probability distributions may lead to biased curves that do not represent the state of knowledge of the assessors. The use of formal methods and the calibration of the analysts help alleviate some of these biases. Case studies involving the assessment of probability distributions for human error rates and for failure rates of components exemplify the importance of the careful use of expert opinions in risk studies.

  9. RADTRAN 5: A computer code for transportation risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Neuhauser, K.S.; Kanipe, F.L.

    1991-01-01

    RADTRAN 5 is a computer code developed at Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) in Albuquerque, NM, to estimate radiological and nonradiological risks of radioactive materials transportation. RADTRAN 5 is written in ANSI Standard FORTRAN 77 and contains significant advances in the methodology for route-specific analysis first developed by SNL for RADTRAN 4 (Neuhauser and Kanipe, 1992). Like the previous RADTRAN codes, RADTRAN 5 contains two major modules for incident-free and accident risk amlysis, respectively. All commercially important transportation modes may be analyzed with RADTRAN 5: highway by combination truck; highway by light-duty vehicle; rail; barge; ocean-going ship; cargo air; and passenger air

  10. EGYPTIAN MUTUAL FUNDS ANALYSIS: HISTORY, PERFORMANCE, OBJECTIVES, RISK AND RETURN

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Petru STEFEA

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available The present research aims to overview the mutual fund in Egypt. The establishment of the first mutual funds was achieved in 1994. Nowadays, the total mutual funds reached 90 funds , approximately. The income funds represent the largest share of the Egyptian mutual funds (40%, growth funds (25% and the private equity funds is at least (1%. The total population of the Egyptian mutual funds reached 22. Finally, the study proved that the Egyptian mutual funds have an impact on fund return , total risk and systemic; when analysis relationship between risk and return. The study found influencing for mutual fund's objectives on Sharpe and Terynor ratios.

  11. Organization of Risk Analysis Codes for Living Evaluations (ORACLE)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Batt, D.L.; MacDonald, P.E.; Sattison, M.B.; Vesely, E.

    1987-01-01

    ORACLE (Organization of Risk Analysis Codes for Living Evaluations) is an integration concept for using risk-based information in United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC) applications. Portions of ORACLE are being developed at the Idaho Nationale Engineering Laboratory for the USNRC. The ORACLE concept consists of related databases, software, user interfaces, processes, and quality control checks allowing a wide variety of regulatory problems and activities to be addressed using current, updated PRA information. The ORACLE concept provides for smooth transitions between one code and the next without pre- or post-processing. (orig.)

  12. Liquidity Risk Management: An Empirical Analysis on Panel Data Analysis and ISE Banking Sector

    OpenAIRE

    Sibel ÇELİK; Yasemin Deniz AKARIM

    2012-01-01

    In this paper, we test the factors affecting liquidity risk management in banking sector in Turkey by using panel regression analysis. We use the data for 9 commercial banks traded in Istanbul Stock Exchange for the period 1998-2008. In conclusion, we find that risky liquid assets and return on equity variables are negatively related with liquidity risk. However, external financing and return on asset variables are positively related with liquidity risk. This finding is importance for banks s...

  13. Risk analysis in radiosurgery treatments using risk matrices; Analisis de riesgos en tratamientos de radiocirugia mediante matrices de riesgo

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Delgado, J. M.; Sanchez Cayela, C.; Ramirez, M. L.; Perez, A.

    2011-07-01

    The aim of this study is the risk analysis process stereotactic single-dose radiotherapy and evaluation of those initiating events that lead to increased risk and a possible solution in the design of barriers.

  14. Seismic risk analysis for the Westinghouse Electric facility, Cheswick, Pennsylvania

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1977-01-01

    This report presents the results of a detailed seismic risk analysis of the Westinghouse Electric plutonium fuel development facility at Cheswick, Pennsylvania. This report focuses on earthquakes. The historical seismic record was established after a review of available literature, consultation with operators of local seismic arrays and examination of appropriate seismic data bases. Because of the aseismicity of the region around the site, an analysis different from the conventional closest approach in a tectonic province was adapted. Earthquakes as far from the site as 1,000 km were included, as were the possibility of earthquakes at the site. In addition, various uncertainties in the input were explicitly considered in the analysis. For example, allowance was made for both the uncertainty in predicting maximum possible earthquakes in the region and the effect of the dispersion of data about the best fit attenuation relation. The attenuation relationship is derived from two of the most recent, advanced studies relating earthquake intensity reports and acceleration. Results of the risk analysis, which include a Bayesian estimate of the uncertainties, are presented as return period accelerations. The best estimate curve indicates that the Westinghouse facility will experience 0.05 g every 220 years and 0.10 g every 1400 years. The accelerations are very insensitive to the details of the source region geometries or the historical earthquake statistics in each region and each of the source regions contributes almost equally to the cumulative risk at the site

  15. Risk analysis within environmental impact assessment of proposed construction activity

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zeleňáková, Martina; Zvijáková, Lenka

    2017-01-15

    Environmental impact assessment is an important process, prior to approval of the investment plan, providing a detailed examination of the likely and foreseeable impacts of proposed construction activity on the environment. The objective of this paper is to develop a specific methodology for the analysis and evaluation of environmental impacts of selected constructions – flood protection structures using risk analysis methods. The application of methodology designed for the process of environmental impact assessment will develop assumptions for further improvements or more effective implementation and performance of this process. The main objective of the paper is to improve the implementation of the environmental impact assessment process. Through the use of risk analysis methods in environmental impact assessment process, the set objective has been achieved. - Highlights: This paper is informed by an effort to develop research with the aim of: • Improving existing qualitative and quantitative methods for assessing the impacts • A better understanding of relations between probabilities and consequences • Methodology for the EIA of flood protection constructions based on risk analysis • Creative approaches in the search for environmentally friendly proposed activities.

  16. Risk analysis of critical infrastructures emphasizing electricity supply and interdependencies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kjølle, G.H.; Utne, I.B.; Gjerde, O.

    2012-01-01

    Failures in critical infrastructures can cause major damage to society. Wide-area interruptions (blackouts) in the electricity supply system have severe impacts on societal critical functions and other critical infrastructures, but there is no agreed-upon framework on how to analyze and predict the reliability of electricity supply. Thus, there is a need for an approach to cross-sector risk analyses, which facilitates risk analysis of outages in the electricity supply system and enables investigation of cascading failures and consequences in other infrastructures. This paper presents such an approach, which includes contingency analysis (power flow) and reliability analysis of power systems, as well as use of a cascade diagram for investigating interdependencies. A case study was carried out together with the Emergency Preparedness Group in the city of Oslo, Norway and the network company Hafslund Nett. The case study results highlight the need for cross-sector analyses by showing that the total estimated societal costs are substantially higher when cascading effects and consequences to other infrastructures are taken into account compared to only considering the costs of electricity interruptions as seen by the network company. The approach is a promising starting point for cross-sector risk analysis of electricity supply interruptions and consequences for dependent infrastructures.

  17. Risk analysis within environmental impact assessment of proposed construction activity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zeleňáková, Martina; Zvijáková, Lenka

    2017-01-01

    Environmental impact assessment is an important process, prior to approval of the investment plan, providing a detailed examination of the likely and foreseeable impacts of proposed construction activity on the environment. The objective of this paper is to develop a specific methodology for the analysis and evaluation of environmental impacts of selected constructions – flood protection structures using risk analysis methods. The application of methodology designed for the process of environmental impact assessment will develop assumptions for further improvements or more effective implementation and performance of this process. The main objective of the paper is to improve the implementation of the environmental impact assessment process. Through the use of risk analysis methods in environmental impact assessment process, the set objective has been achieved. - Highlights: This paper is informed by an effort to develop research with the aim of: • Improving existing qualitative and quantitative methods for assessing the impacts • A better understanding of relations between probabilities and consequences • Methodology for the EIA of flood protection constructions based on risk analysis • Creative approaches in the search for environmentally friendly proposed activities.

  18. Train integrity detection risk analysis based on PRISM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wen, Yuan

    2018-04-01

    GNSS based Train Integrity Monitoring System (TIMS) is an effective and low-cost detection scheme for train integrity detection. However, as an external auxiliary system of CTCS, GNSS may be influenced by external environments, such as uncertainty of wireless communication channels, which may lead to the failure of communication and positioning. In order to guarantee the reliability and safety of train operation, a risk analysis method of train integrity detection based on PRISM is proposed in this article. First, we analyze the risk factors (in GNSS communication process and the on-board communication process) and model them. Then, we evaluate the performance of the model in PRISM based on the field data. Finally, we discuss how these risk factors influence the train integrity detection process.

  19. Risk Analysis as Regulatory Science: Toward The Establishment of Standards.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murakami, Michio

    2016-09-01

    Understanding how to establish standards is essential for risk communication and also provides perspectives for further study. In this paper, the concept of risk analysis as regulatory science for the establishment of standards is demonstrated through examples of standards for evacuation and provisional regulation values in foods and drinking water. Moreover, academic needs for further studies related to standards are extracted. The concepts of the traditional 'Standard I', which has a paternalistic orientation, and 'Standard II', established through stakeholder consensus, are then systemized by introducing the current status of the new standards-related movement that developed after the Fukushima nuclear power plant accident, and the perspectives of the standards are discussed. Preparation of standards on the basis of stakeholder consensus through intensive risk dialogue before a potential nuclear power plant accident is suggested to be a promising approach to ensure a safe society and enhance subjective well-being. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press.

  20. Path analysis of risk factors leading to premature birth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fields, S J; Livshits, G; Sirotta, L; Merlob, P

    1996-01-01

    The present study tested whether various sociodemographic, anthropometric, behavioral, and medical/physiological factors act in a direct or indirect manner on the risk of prematurity using path analysis on a sample of Israeli births. The path model shows that medical complications, primarily toxemia, chorioammionitis, and a previous low birth weight delivery directly and significantly act on the risk of prematurity as do low maternal pregnancy weight gain and ethnicity. Other medical complications, including chronic hypertension, preclampsia, and placental abruption, although significantly correlated with prematurity, act indirectly on prematurity through toxemia. The model further shows that the commonly accepted sociodemographic, anthropometric, and behavioral risk factors act by modifying the development of medical complications that lead to prematurity as opposed to having a direct effect on premature delivery. © 1996 Wiley-Liss, Inc. Copyright © 1996 Wiley-Liss, Inc.