WorldWideScience

Sample records for numerous small earthquakes

  1. Earthquake hazard assessment and small earthquakes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reiter, L.

    1987-01-01

    The significance of small earthquakes and their treatment in nuclear power plant seismic hazard assessment is an issue which has received increased attention over the past few years. In probabilistic studies, sensitivity studies showed that the choice of the lower bound magnitude used in hazard calculations can have a larger than expected effect on the calculated hazard. Of particular interest is the fact that some of the difference in seismic hazard calculations between the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) and Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) studies can be attributed to this choice. The LLNL study assumed a lower bound magnitude of 3.75 while the EPRI study assumed a lower bound magnitude of 5.0. The magnitudes used were assumed to be body wave magnitudes or their equivalents. In deterministic studies recent ground motion recordings of small to moderate earthquakes at or near nuclear power plants have shown that the high frequencies of design response spectra may be exceeded. These exceedances became important issues in the licensing of the Summer and Perry nuclear power plants. At various times in the past particular concerns have been raised with respect to the hazard and damage potential of small to moderate earthquakes occurring at very shallow depths. In this paper a closer look is taken at these issues. Emphasis is given to the impact of lower bound magnitude on probabilistic hazard calculations and the historical record of damage from small to moderate earthquakes. Limited recommendations are made as to how these issues should be viewed

  2. Low cost earthquake resistant ferrocement small house

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saleem, M.A.; Ashraf, M.; Ashraf, M.

    2008-01-01

    The greatest humanitarian challenge faced even today after one year of Kashmir Hazara earthquake is that of providing shelter. Currently on the globe one in seven people live in a slum or refugee camp. The earthquake of October 2005 resulted in a great loss of life and property. This research work is mainly focused on developing a design of small size, low cost and earthquake resistant house. Ferrocement panels are recommended as the main structural elements with lightweight truss roofing system. Earthquake resistance is ensured by analyzing the structure on ETABS for a seismic activity of zone 4. The behavior of structure is found satisfactory under the earthquake loading. An estimate of cost is also presented which shows that it is an economical solution. (author)

  3. Tsunami Numerical Simulation for Hypothetical Giant or Great Earthquakes along the Izu-Bonin Trench

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harada, T.; Ishibashi, K.; Satake, K.

    2013-12-01

    We performed tsunami numerical simulations from various giant/great fault models along the Izu-Bonin trench in order to see the behavior of tsunamis originated in this region and to examine the recurrence pattern of great interplate earthquakes along the Nankai trough off southwest Japan. As a result, large tsunami heights are expected in the Ryukyu Islands and on the Pacific coasts of Kyushu, Shikoku and western Honshu. The computed large tsunami heights support the hypothesis that the 1605 Keicho Nankai earthquake was not a tsunami earthquake along the Nankai trough but a giant or great earthquake along the Izu-Bonin trench (Ishibashi and Harada, 2013, SSJ Fall Meeting abstract). The Izu-Bonin subduction zone has been regarded as so-called 'Mariana-type subduction zone' where M>7 interplate earthquakes do not occur inherently. However, since several M>7 outer-rise earthquakes have occurred in this region and the largest slip of the 2011 Tohoku earthquake (M9.0) took place on the shallow plate interface where the strain accumulation had considered to be a little, a possibility of M>8.5 earthquakes in this region may not be negligible. The latest M 7.4 outer-rise earthquake off the Bonin Islands on Dec. 22, 2010 produced small tsunamis on the Pacific coast of Japan except for the Tohoku and Hokkaido districts and a zone of abnormal seismic intensity in the Kanto and Tohoku districts. Ishibashi and Harada (2013) proposed a working hypothesis that the 1605 Keicho earthquake which is considered a great tsunami earthquake along the Nankai trough was a giant/great earthquake along the Izu-Bonin trench based on the similarity of the distributions of ground shaking and tsunami of this event and the 2010 Bonin earthquake. In this study, in order to examine the behavior of tsunamis from giant/great earthquakes along the Izu-Bonin trench and check the Ishibashi and Harada's hypothesis, we performed tsunami numerical simulations from fault models along the Izu-Bonin trench

  4. Small Buildings in Earthquake Areas. Educational Building Digest 2.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mooij, D.

    This booklet is intended for builders and others who actually construct small buildings in earthquake areas and not for professionally qualified architects or engineers. In outline form with sketches the following topics are discussed: general construction and design principles; foundations; earth walls; brick, block, and stone walls; timber frame…

  5. Multiple Spectral Ratio Analyses Reveal Earthquake Source Spectra of Small Earthquakes and Moment Magnitudes of Microearthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uchide, T.; Imanishi, K.

    2016-12-01

    Spectral studies for macroscopic earthquake source parameters are helpful for characterizing earthquake rupture process and hence understanding earthquake source physics and fault properties. Those studies require us mute wave propagation path and site effects in spectra of seismograms to accentuate source effect. We have recently developed the multiple spectral ratio method [Uchide and Imanishi, BSSA, 2016] employing many empirical Green's function (EGF) events to reduce errors from the choice of EGF events. This method helps us estimate source spectra more accurately as well as moment ratios among reference and EGF events, which are useful to constrain the seismic moment of microearthquakes. First, we focus on earthquake source spectra. The source spectra have generally been thought to obey the omega-square model with single corner-frequency. However recent studies imply the existence of another corner frequency for some earthquakes. We analyzed small shallow inland earthquakes (3.5 multiple spectral ratio analyses. For 20000 microearthquakes in Fukushima Hamadori and northern Ibaraki prefecture area, we found that the JMA magnitudes (Mj) based on displacement or velocity amplitude are systematically below Mw. The slope of the Mj-Mw relation is 0.5 for Mj 5. We propose a fitting curve for the obtained relationship as Mw = (1/2)Mj + (1/2)(Mjγ + Mcorγ)1/γ+ c, where Mcor is a corner magnitude, γ determines the sharpness of the corner, and c denotes an offset. We obtained Mcor = 4.1, γ = 5.6, and c = -0.47 to fit the observation. The parameters are useful for characterizing the Mj-Mw relationship. This non-linear relationship affects the b-value of the Gutenberg-Richter law. Quantitative discussions on b-values are affected by the definition of magnitude to use.

  6. Current problems and subjects on numerical analysis of earthquake geotechnical engineering. For seamless analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yoshida, Taiki

    2016-01-01

    There are continuum and discontinuum analyses in the evaluation of seismic stability of surrounding slope in nuclear power plant facility. However, we cannot rationally evaluate such seismic stability due to excessive conservative margin of the results by each analysis. If we can simulate the behavior from small to large deformation by hybridizing them, we can contribute not only to the rationalization of the slope stability evaluation but also the enhancement of evaluation precision in the numerical analysis. In this review, the previous numerical analyses and application cases of them in earthquake geotechnical engineering were classified into three categories, that is, continuum analysis, discontinuum one and the hybridizing process to identify their research themes. The present review has revealed that the research themes are the standardization of condition for conversion, construction of the technique to determine parameters related to conversion and the reasonable physical property set of DEM(Distinct Element Method) after conversion. Our future work will be development of a numerical analysis code hybridizing continuum and discontinuum analyses based on the identified research themes. (author)

  7. Possible scenarios for occurrence of M ~ 7 interplate earthquakes prior to and following the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake based on numerical simulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nakata, Ryoko; Hori, Takane; Hyodo, Mamoru; Ariyoshi, Keisuke

    2016-05-10

    We show possible scenarios for the occurrence of M ~ 7 interplate earthquakes prior to and following the M ~ 9 earthquake along the Japan Trench, such as the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake. One such M ~ 7 earthquake is so-called the Miyagi-ken-Oki earthquake, for which we conducted numerical simulations of earthquake generation cycles by using realistic three-dimensional (3D) geometry of the subducting Pacific Plate. In a number of scenarios, the time interval between the M ~ 9 earthquake and the subsequent Miyagi-ken-Oki earthquake was equal to or shorter than the average recurrence interval during the later stage of the M ~ 9 earthquake cycle. The scenarios successfully reproduced important characteristics such as the recurrence of M ~ 7 earthquakes, coseismic slip distribution, afterslip distribution, the largest foreshock, and the largest aftershock of the 2011 earthquake. Thus, these results suggest that we should prepare for future M ~ 7 earthquakes in the Miyagi-ken-Oki segment even though this segment recently experienced large coseismic slip in 2011.

  8. Possible scenarios for occurrence of M ~ 7 interplate earthquakes prior to and following the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake based on numerical simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nakata, Ryoko; Hori, Takane; Hyodo, Mamoru; Ariyoshi, Keisuke

    2016-01-01

    We show possible scenarios for the occurrence of M ~ 7 interplate earthquakes prior to and following the M ~ 9 earthquake along the Japan Trench, such as the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake. One such M ~ 7 earthquake is so-called the Miyagi-ken-Oki earthquake, for which we conducted numerical simulations of earthquake generation cycles by using realistic three-dimensional (3D) geometry of the subducting Pacific Plate. In a number of scenarios, the time interval between the M ~ 9 earthquake and the subsequent Miyagi-ken-Oki earthquake was equal to or shorter than the average recurrence interval during the later stage of the M ~ 9 earthquake cycle. The scenarios successfully reproduced important characteristics such as the recurrence of M ~ 7 earthquakes, coseismic slip distribution, afterslip distribution, the largest foreshock, and the largest aftershock of the 2011 earthquake. Thus, these results suggest that we should prepare for future M ~ 7 earthquakes in the Miyagi-ken-Oki segment even though this segment recently experienced large coseismic slip in 2011. PMID:27161897

  9. A numerical simulation strategy on occupant evacuation behaviors and casualty prediction in a building during earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Shuang; Yu, Xiaohui; Zhang, Yanjuan; Zhai, Changhai

    2018-01-01

    Casualty prediction in a building during earthquakes benefits to implement the economic loss estimation in the performance-based earthquake engineering methodology. Although after-earthquake observations reveal that the evacuation has effects on the quantity of occupant casualties during earthquakes, few current studies consider occupant movements in the building in casualty prediction procedures. To bridge this knowledge gap, a numerical simulation method using refined cellular automata model is presented, which can describe various occupant dynamic behaviors and building dimensions. The simulation on the occupant evacuation is verified by a recorded evacuation process from a school classroom in real-life 2013 Ya'an earthquake in China. The occupant casualties in the building under earthquakes are evaluated by coupling the building collapse process simulation by finite element method, the occupant evacuation simulation, and the casualty occurrence criteria with time and space synchronization. A case study of casualty prediction in a building during an earthquake is provided to demonstrate the effect of occupant movements on casualty prediction.

  10. Numerical relationship between surface deformation and a change of groundwater table before and after an earthquake

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Akao, Yoshihiko

    1995-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to estimate the effect of earthquakes upon a groundwater flow around a repositories for high-level radioactive wastes. Estimation of a groundwater flow change before and after an earthquake or a volcanic eruption is one of the issues for a long-term safety assessment of the repositories. However, almost any systematic investigation about the causality between a groundwater flow change and an earthquake or an eruption was not found, and as well no estimation formula has been published. The authors succeeded in obtaining a primitive relationship between a groundwater change and an earthquake in this study. The study consists of three stages. First, several survey reports which describe field observation results of groundwater anomalies caused by earthquakes or eruptions have been collected. The necessary data have been read from the literature and systematically arranged. Second, source mechanisms of the corresponding earthquakes were inspected and static displacements at the well positions were calculated by the dislocation theory in the seismology. Third, parametric studies among the parameters of groundwater anomalies and earthquakes were carried out to find a numerical relationship between a couple of them. Then, a preliminary relationship between water table change in a well and static displacement at the well position was found. The authors can conclude that temporary change of water table seems to depend on the norm of displacement vector. In this relationship, the maximum value of water table change would be approximately one hundred times of the displacement

  11. Numerical Modelling of the 1995 Dinar Earthquake Effects on Hydrodynamic Regime of Egirdir Lake

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Murat Aksel

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available The effect of earthquakes on closed and semi-closed water systems is a research topic that has been studied for many years. The lack of continuous measurement systems in closed and semi-closed water systems is insufficient to examine and investigate what has happened during the earthquake. The morphological structures of the lakes indicate the characteristics of the events that occurred during an earthquake. Due to the developing technology and research request, some monitoring, measurement stations are installed in some lakes, gulfs, estuaries, etc. systems. Today, both higher quality measurement and field data can be obtained, and more complicated processes are being explored with the help of faster computers. Computational fluid dynamics is currently used because of the difficulty in calculating hydrodynamic responses of lakes due to earthquake. Investigations on the effects of the earthquake condition on the desired closed / semi-closed water system studies by using numerical modelling have been continuing increasingly in recent years. Both the quality of the bathymetric data gathered from the field, the continuous acquisition of both dynamic water level measurement systems, and the use of new technologies and systems in the search for base materials contribute to the fact that we have more knowledge of the formation, behavior and effects of the sorts. In this study, 1995 Dinar Earthquake effects on Egirdir Lake hydrodynamic regime was investigated by numerical modelling approach.

  12. Small discussion of electromagnetic wave anomalies preceding earthquakes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1980-01-01

    Six brief pieces on various aspects of electromagnetic wave anomalies are presented. They cover: earthquake electromagnetic emanations; the use of magnetic induction information for earthquake forecasting; electromagnetic pulse emissions as pre-earthquake indicators; the use of magnetic sensors to determine medium-wavelength field strength for earthquake prediction purposes; magnetic deviation indicators inside reinforced-concrete buildings; and a discussion of the general physical principles involved.

  13. Earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    An earthquake happens when two blocks of the earth suddenly slip past one another. Earthquakes strike suddenly, violently, and without warning at any time of the day or night. If an earthquake occurs in a populated area, it may cause ...

  14. Investigation of the scale for dividing small earthquake regions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Xu, Y.; Zhang, H.

    1980-01-22

    In view of the fact that the upper layer of soil has a greater effect on earthquake damage than the lower layers, the area of an inverted triangle is used for averaging the effects of soils of different depths on the composite shear strength, G/sub j/ x 10/sup 3/ tons/m/sup 2/; where G/sub j/ is the composite shear strength of the jth drill hole. For the purpose of supporting the reconstruction of Tangshan, this technique was used in 1977 by the Institute of Engineering Mechanics Chinese Academy of Sciences and the Institute of Surveying Chinese Academy of Architecture to proceed with small area classification of Fengrun, which is a northern suburb of Tangshan. The result basically agrees with the classification data of engineering geology.

  15. Searching for evidence of a preferred rupture direction in small earthquakes at Parkfield

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kane, D. L.; Shearer, P. M.; Allmann, B.; Vernon, F. L.

    2009-12-01

    Theoretical modeling of strike-slip ruptures along a bimaterial interface suggests that the interface will have a preferred rupture direction and will produce asymmetric ground motion (Shi and Ben-Zion, 2006). This could have widespread implications for earthquake source physics and for hazard analysis on mature faults because larger ground motions would be expected in the direction of rupture propagation. Studies have shown that many large global earthquakes exhibit unilateral rupture, but a consistently preferred rupture direction along faults has not been observed. Some researchers have argued that the bimaterial interface model does not apply to natural faults, noting that the rupture of the M 6 2004 Parkfield earthquake propagated in the opposite direction from previous M 6 earthquakes along that section of the San Andreas Fault (Harris and Day, 2005). We analyze earthquake spectra from the Parkfield area to look for evidence of consistent rupture directivity along the San Andreas Fault. We separate the earthquakes into spatially defined clusters and quantify the differences in high-frequency energy among earthquakes recorded at each station. Propagation path effects are minimized in this analysis because we compare earthquakes located within a small volume and recorded by the same stations. By considering a number of potential end-member models, we seek to determine if a preferred rupture direction is present among small earthquakes at Parkfield.

  16. Near-fault earthquake ground motion prediction by a high-performance spectral element numerical code

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Paolucci, Roberto; Stupazzini, Marco

    2008-01-01

    Near-fault effects have been widely recognised to produce specific features of earthquake ground motion, that cannot be reliably predicted by 1D seismic wave propagation modelling, used as a standard in engineering applications. These features may have a relevant impact on the structural response, especially in the nonlinear range, that is hard to predict and to be put in a design format, due to the scarcity of significant earthquake records and of reliable numerical simulations. In this contribution a pilot study is presented for the evaluation of seismic ground-motions in the near-fault region, based on a high-performance numerical code for 3D seismic wave propagation analyses, including the seismic fault, the wave propagation path and the near-surface geological or topographical irregularity. For this purpose, the software package GeoELSE is adopted, based on the spectral element method. The set-up of the numerical benchmark of 3D ground motion simulation in the valley of Grenoble (French Alps) is chosen to study the effect of the complex interaction between basin geometry and radiation mechanism on the variability of earthquake ground motion

  17. Numerical simulation of the 1976 Ms7.8 Tangshan Earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Zhengbo; Chen, Xiaofei

    2017-04-01

    An Ms 7.8 earthquake happened in Tangshan in 1976, causing more than 240000 people death and almost destroying the whole city. Numerous studies indicated that the surface rupture zone extends 8 to 11 km in the south of Tangshan City. The fault system is composed with more than ten NE-trending right-lateral strike-slip left-stepping echelon faults, with a general strike direction of N30°E. However, recent scholars proposed that the surface ruptures appeared in a larger area. To simulate the rupture process closer to the real situation, the curvilinear grid finite difference method presented by Zhang et al. (2006, 2014) which can handle the free surface and the complex geometry were implemented to investigate the dynamic rupture and ground motion of Tangshan earthquake. With the data from field survey, seismic section, borehole and trenching results given by different studies, several fault geometry models were established. The intensity, the seismic waveform and the displacement resulted from the simulation of different models were compared with the observed data. The comparison of these models shows details of the rupture process of the Tangshan earthquake and implies super-shear may occur during the rupture, which is important for better understanding of this complicated rupture process and seismic hazard distributions of this earthquake.

  18. Seismic experience in power and industrial facilities as it relates to small magnitude earthquakes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Swan, S.W.; Horstman, N.G.

    1987-01-01

    The data base on the performance of power and industrial facilities in small magnitude earthquakes (M = 4.0 - 5.5) is potentially very large. In California alone many earthquakes in this magnitude range occur every year, often near industrial areas. In 1986 for example, in northern California alone, there were 76 earthquakes between Richter magnitude 4.0 and 5.5. Experience has shown that the effects of small magnitude earthquakes are seldom significant to well-engineered facilities. (The term well-engineered is here defined to include most modern industrial installations, as well as power plants and substations.) Therefore detailed investigations of small magnitude earthquakes are normally not considered worthwhile. The purpose of this paper is to review the tendency toward seismic damage of equipment installations representative of nuclear power plant safety systems. Estimates are made of the thresholds of seismic damage to certain types of equipment in terms of conventional means of measuring the damage potential of an earthquake. The objective is to define thresholds of damage that can be correlated with Richter magnitude. In this manner an earthquake magnitude might be chosen below which damage to nuclear plant safety systems is not considered credible

  19. One feature of the activated southern Ordos block: the Ziwuling small earthquake cluster

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Li Yuhang

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Small earthquakes (Ms > 2.0 have been recorded from 1970 to the present day and reveal a significant difference in seismicity between the stable Ordos block and its active surrounding area. The southern Ordos block is a conspicuous small earthquake belt clustered and isolated along the NNW direction and extends to the inner stable Ordos block; no active fault can match this small earthquake cluster. In this paper, we analyze the dynamic mechanism of this small earthquake cluster based on the GPS velocity field (from 1999 to 2007, which are mainly from Crustal Movement Observation Network of China (CMONOC with respect to the north and south China blocks. The principal direction of strain rate field, the expansion ratefield, the maximum shear strain rate, and the rotation rate were constrained using the GPS velocity field. The results show that the velocity field, which is bounded by the small earthquake cluster from Tongchuan to Weinan, differs from the strain rate field, and the crustal deformation is left-lateral shear. This left-lateral shear belt not only spatially coincides with the Neo-tectonic belt in the Weihe Basin but also with the NNW small earthquake cluster (the Ziwuling small earthquake cluster. Based on these studies, we speculate that the NNW small earthquake cluster is caused by left-lateral shear slip, which is prone to strain accumulation. When the strain releases along the weak zone of structure, small earthquakes diffuse within its upper crust. The maximum principal compression strees direction changed from NE-SW to NEE-SWW, and the former reverse faults in the southwestern margin of the Ordos block became a left-lateral strike slip due to readjustment of the tectonic strees field after the middle Pleistocene. The NNW Neo-tectonic belt in the Weihe Basin, the different movement character of the inner Weihe Basin (which was demonstrated through GPS measurements and the small earthquake cluster belt reflect the activated

  20. On the agreement between small-world-like OFC model and real earthquakes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ferreira, Douglas S.R., E-mail: douglas.ferreira@ifrj.edu.br [Instituto Federal de Educação, Ciência e Tecnologia do Rio de Janeiro, Paracambi, RJ (Brazil); Geophysics Department, Observatório Nacional, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Papa, Andrés R.R., E-mail: papa@on.br [Geophysics Department, Observatório Nacional, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Instituto de Física, Universidade do Estado do Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Menezes, Ronaldo, E-mail: rmenezes@cs.fit.edu [BioComplex Laboratory, Computer Sciences, Florida Institute of Technology, Melbourne (United States)

    2015-03-20

    In this article we implemented simulations of the OFC model for earthquakes for two different topologies: regular and small-world, where in the latter the links are randomly rewired with probability p. In both topologies, we have studied the distribution of time intervals between consecutive earthquakes and the border effects present in each one. In addition, we also have characterized the influence that the probability p produces in certain characteristics of the lattice and in the intensity of border effects. From the two topologies, networks of consecutive epicenters were constructed, that allowed us to analyze the distribution of connectivities of each one. In our results distributions arise belonging to a family of non-traditional distributions functions, which agrees with previous studies using data from actual earthquakes. Our results reinforce the idea that the Earth is in a critical self-organized state and furthermore point towards temporal and spatial correlations between earthquakes in different places. - Highlights: • OFC model simulations for regular and small-world topologies. • For small-world topology distributions agree remarkably well with actual earthquakes. • Reinforce the idea of a critical self-organized state for the Earth's crust. • Point towards temporal and spatial correlations between far earthquakes in far places.

  1. On the agreement between small-world-like OFC model and real earthquakes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ferreira, Douglas S.R.; Papa, Andrés R.R.; Menezes, Ronaldo

    2015-01-01

    In this article we implemented simulations of the OFC model for earthquakes for two different topologies: regular and small-world, where in the latter the links are randomly rewired with probability p. In both topologies, we have studied the distribution of time intervals between consecutive earthquakes and the border effects present in each one. In addition, we also have characterized the influence that the probability p produces in certain characteristics of the lattice and in the intensity of border effects. From the two topologies, networks of consecutive epicenters were constructed, that allowed us to analyze the distribution of connectivities of each one. In our results distributions arise belonging to a family of non-traditional distributions functions, which agrees with previous studies using data from actual earthquakes. Our results reinforce the idea that the Earth is in a critical self-organized state and furthermore point towards temporal and spatial correlations between earthquakes in different places. - Highlights: • OFC model simulations for regular and small-world topologies. • For small-world topology distributions agree remarkably well with actual earthquakes. • Reinforce the idea of a critical self-organized state for the Earth's crust. • Point towards temporal and spatial correlations between far earthquakes in far places

  2. Numerical modeling of possible lower ionospheric anomalies associated with Nepal earthquake in May, 2015

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chakraborty, Suman; Sasmal, Sudipta; Basak, Tamal; Ghosh, Soujan; Palit, Sourav; Chakrabarti, Sandip K.; Ray, Suman

    2017-10-01

    We present perturbations due to seismo-ionospheric coupling processes in propagation characteristics of sub-ionospheric Very Low Frequency (VLF) signals received at Ionospheric & Earthquake Research Centre (IERC) (Lat. 22.50°N, Long. 87.48°E), India. The study is done during and prior to an earthquake of Richter scale magnitude M = 7.3 occurring at a depth of 18 km at southeast of Kodari, Nepal on 12 May 2015 at 12:35:19 IST (07:05:19 UT). The recorded VLF signal of Japanese transmitter JJI at frequency 22.2 kHz (Lat. 32.08°N, Long. 130.83°E) suffers from strong shifts in sunrise and sunset terminator times towards nighttime starting from three to four days prior to the earthquake. The signal shows a similar variation in terminator times during a major aftershock of magnitude M = 6.7 on 16 May, 2015 at 17:04:10 IST (11:34:10 UT). These shifts in terminator times is numerically modeled using Long Wavelength Propagation Capability (LWPC) Programme. The unperturbed VLF signal is simulated by using the day and night variation of reflection height (h‧) and steepness parameter (β) fed in LWPC for the entire path. The perturbed signal is obtained by additional variation of these parameters inside the earthquake preparation zone. It is found that the shift of the terminator time towards nighttime happens only when the reflection height is increased. We also calculate electron density profile by using the Wait's exponential formula for specified location over the propagation path.

  3. Numerical simulations of earthquake effects on tunnels for generic nuclear waste repositories

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wahi, K.K.; Trent, B.C.; Maxwell, D.E.; Pyke, R.M.; Young, C.; Ross-Brown, D.M.

    1980-12-01

    The objectives of this generic study were to use numerical modeling techniques to determine under what conditions seismic waves generated by an earthquake might cause instability to an underground opening, or cause fracturing and joint movement that would lead to an increase in the permeability of the rock mass. Three different rock types (salt, granite, and shale) were considered as host media for the repository located at a depth of 600 meters. Special material models were developed to account for the nonlinear material behavior of each rock type. The sensitivity analysis included variations in the in situ stress ratio, joint geometry, pore pressures, and the presence or absence of a fault. Three different sets of earthquake motions were used to excite the rock mass. The calculations were performed using the STEALTH codes in a three-stage process. It was concluded that the methodology is suitable for studying the effects of earthquakes on underground openings. In general, the study showed that moderate earthquakes (up to 0.41 g) did not cause instability of the tunnel or major fracturing of the rock mass. A rock-burst tremor with accelerations up to 0.95 g, however, was found to be amplified around the tunnel, and fracturing occurred as a result of the seismic loading in salt and granite. In shale, even moderate seismic loading resulted in tunnel collapse. Other questions appraised in the study include the stability of granite tunnels under various combinations of joint geometry and in situ stress states, and the overall stability of tunnels in shale subject to the thermomechanical loading conditions anticipated in an underground waste repository

  4. Homogeneity of small-scale earthquake faulting, stress, and fault strength

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hardebeck, J.L.

    2006-01-01

    Small-scale faulting at seismogenic depths in the crust appears to be more homogeneous than previously thought. I study three new high-quality focal-mechanism datasets of small (M angular difference between their focal mechanisms. Closely spaced earthquakes (interhypocentral distance small volumes of crust, while faults of many orientations may or may not be present, only similarly oriented fault planes produce earthquakes contemporaneously. On these short length scales, the crustal stress orientation and fault strength (coefficient of friction) are inferred to be homogeneous as well, to produce such similar earthquakes. Over larger length scales (???2-50 km), focal mechanisms become more diverse with increasing interhypocentral distance (differing on average by 40-70??). Mechanism variability on ???2- to 50 km length scales can be explained by ralatively small variations (???30%) in stress or fault strength. It is possible that most of this small apparent heterogeneity in stress of strength comes from measurement error in the focal mechanisms, as negligibble variation in stress or fault strength (<10%) is needed if each earthquake is assigned the optimally oriented focal mechanism within the 1-sigma confidence region. This local homogeneity in stress orientation and fault strength is encouraging, implying it may be possible to measure these parameters with enough precision to be useful in studying and modeling large earthquakes.

  5. Real-time 3-D space numerical shake prediction for earthquake early warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Tianyun; Jin, Xing; Huang, Yandan; Wei, Yongxiang

    2017-12-01

    In earthquake early warning systems, real-time shake prediction through wave propagation simulation is a promising approach. Compared with traditional methods, it does not suffer from the inaccurate estimation of source parameters. For computation efficiency, wave direction is assumed to propagate on the 2-D surface of the earth in these methods. In fact, since the seismic wave propagates in the 3-D sphere of the earth, the 2-D space modeling of wave direction results in inaccurate wave estimation. In this paper, we propose a 3-D space numerical shake prediction method, which simulates the wave propagation in 3-D space using radiative transfer theory, and incorporate data assimilation technique to estimate the distribution of wave energy. 2011 Tohoku earthquake is studied as an example to show the validity of the proposed model. 2-D space model and 3-D space model are compared in this article, and the prediction results show that numerical shake prediction based on 3-D space model can estimate the real-time ground motion precisely, and overprediction is alleviated when using 3-D space model.

  6. Numerical modeling of block structure dynamics: Application to the Vrancea region and study of earthquakes sequences in the synthetic catalogs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Soloviev, A.A.; Vorobieva, I.A.

    1995-08-01

    A seismically active region is represented as a system of absolutely rigid blocks divided by infinitely thin plane faults. The interaction of the blocks along the fault planes and with the underlying medium is viscous-elastic. The system of blocks moves as a consequence of prescribed motion of boundary blocks and the underlying medium. When for some part of a fault plane the stress surpasses a certain strength level a stress-drop (''a failure'') occurs. It can cause a failure for other parts of fault planes. The failures are considered as earthquakes. As a result of the numerical simulation a synthetic earthquake catalogue is produced. This procedure is applied for numerical modeling of dynamics of the block structure approximating the tectonic structure of the Vrancea region. By numerical experiments the values of the model parameters were obtained which supplied the synthetic earthquake catalog with the space distribution of epicenters close to the real distribution of the earthquake epicenters in the Vrancea region. The frequency-magnitude relations (Gutenberg-Richter curves) obtained for the synthetic and real catalogs have some common features. The sequences of earthquakes arising in the model are studied for some artificial structures. It is found that ''foreshocks'', ''main shocks'', and ''aftershocks'' could be detected among earthquakes forming the sequences. The features of aftershocks, foreshocks, and catalogs of main shocks are analysed. (author). 5 refs, 12 figs, 16 tabs

  7. Numerical simulations of earthquakes and the dynamics of fault systems using the Finite Element method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kettle, L. M.; Mora, P.; Weatherley, D.; Gross, L.; Xing, H.

    2006-12-01

    Simulations using the Finite Element method are widely used in many engineering applications and for the solution of partial differential equations (PDEs). Computational models based on the solution of PDEs play a key role in earth systems simulations. We present numerical modelling of crustal fault systems where the dynamic elastic wave equation is solved using the Finite Element method. This is achieved using a high level computational modelling language, escript, available as open source software from ACcESS (Australian Computational Earth Systems Simulator), the University of Queensland. Escript is an advanced geophysical simulation software package developed at ACcESS which includes parallel equation solvers, data visualisation and data analysis software. The escript library was implemented to develop a flexible Finite Element model which reliably simulates the mechanism of faulting and the physics of earthquakes. Both 2D and 3D elastodynamic models are being developed to study the dynamics of crustal fault systems. Our final goal is to build a flexible model which can be applied to any fault system with user-defined geometry and input parameters. To study the physics of earthquake processes, two different time scales must be modelled, firstly the quasi-static loading phase which gradually increases stress in the system (~100years), and secondly the dynamic rupture process which rapidly redistributes stress in the system (~100secs). We will discuss the solution of the time-dependent elastic wave equation for an arbitrary fault system using escript. This involves prescribing the correct initial stress distribution in the system to simulate the quasi-static loading of faults to failure; determining a suitable frictional constitutive law which accurately reproduces the dynamics of the stick/slip instability at the faults; and using a robust time integration scheme. These dynamic models generate data and information that can be used for earthquake forecasting.

  8. Real-time numerical shake prediction and updating for earthquake early warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Tianyun; Jin, Xing; Wei, Yongxiang; Huang, Yandan

    2017-12-01

    Ground motion prediction is important for earthquake early warning systems, because the region's peak ground motion indicates the potential disaster. In order to predict the peak ground motion quickly and precisely with limited station wave records, we propose a real-time numerical shake prediction and updating method. Our method first predicts the ground motion based on the ground motion prediction equation after P waves detection of several stations, denoted as the initial prediction. In order to correct the prediction error of the initial prediction, an updating scheme based on real-time simulation of wave propagation is designed. Data assimilation technique is incorporated to predict the distribution of seismic wave energy precisely. Radiative transfer theory and Monte Carlo simulation are used for modeling wave propagation in 2-D space, and the peak ground motion is calculated as quickly as possible. Our method has potential to predict shakemap, making the potential disaster be predicted before the real disaster happens. 2008 M S8.0 Wenchuan earthquake is studied as an example to show the validity of the proposed method.

  9. EVALUATION OF SEISMIC PERFORMANCE OF RAMP TUNNEL STRUCTURE DURING LEVEL-2 EARTHQUAKE BY MASSIVE 3D NUMERICAL COMPUTATION

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamada, Takemine; Ichimura, Tsuyoshi; Hori, Muneo; Dobashi, Hiroshi; Ohbo, Naoto

    Quasi non-linear 3D FEM earthquake response analysises with level-2 earthquake are conducted for a ramp tunnel structure of Tokyo metropolitan express way central circular line the Yamate tunnel. Large-scale numerical computation with solid elements is highly required for examination of seismic response of large tunnel in case of level-2 earthquake. The results are obtained as follows: i) In level-2 earthquake, stress concentration in ramp tunnel becomes great near geological interface between two layers of high impedance contrast. ii) The response is not obtained as a superposition of two-dimensional responses which is an assumption in conventional design methods because the distribution of displacements in the direction of tunnel axis at cross-section of ramp tunnel structure near geological interface does not linearly distribute. iii) Evaluation of stress in addition to section force is desirable for the correct evaluation of the three-dimensional response of tunnel structure.

  10. Numerical simulation of co-seismic deformation of 2011 Japan Mw9. 0 earthquake

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhang Keliang

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available Co-seismic displacements associated with the Mw9. 0 earthquake on March 11, 2011 in Japan are numerically simulated on the basis of a finite-fault dislocation model with PSGRN/PSCMP software. Compared with the inland GPS observation, 90% of the computed eastward, northward and vertical displacements have residuals less than 0.10 m, suggesting that the simulated results can be, to certain extent, used to demonstrate the co-seismic deformation in the near field. In this model, the maximum eastward displacement increases from 6 m along the coast to 30 m near the epicenter, where the maximum southward displacement is 13 m. The three-dimensional display shows that the vertical displacement reaches a maximum uplift of 14.3 m, which is comparable to the tsunami height in the near-trench region. The maximum subsidence is 5.3 m.

  11. Experimental study of a shear wall with numerous small openings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sotomura, K.; Murazumi, Y.; Yoshizaki, S.; Ezaki, T.

    1981-01-01

    Many small openings for piping and ducts are usually required in the shear walls for PWR nuclear power plant. It is generally believed that such openings oadversely affect the strength and stiffness of shear walls. However, little information is available concerning the behavior of walls with numerous small openings. Therefore, tests using wall specimens and an analysis using an FEM program were carried out to investigate this behavior. Main findings are as follows: 1) The ultimate strength of a shear wall with numerous small openings may be obtained by using the effective area at the critical cross section of the shear wall. 2) Shear walls with openings can be restored to the same shear strength and stiffness as shear walls without openings by diagonal reinforcement. (orig./HP)

  12. Automatic computation of moment magnitudes for small earthquakes and the scaling of local to moment magnitude

    OpenAIRE

    Edwards, Benjamin; Allmann, Bettina; Fäh, Donat; Clinton, John

    2017-01-01

    Moment magnitudes (MW) are computed for small and moderate earthquakes using a spectral fitting method. 40 of the resulting values are compared with those from broadband moment tensor solutions and found to match with negligible offset and scatter for available MW values of between 2.8 and 5.0. Using the presented method, MW are computed for 679 earthquakes in Switzerland with a minimum ML= 1.3. A combined bootstrap and orthogonal L1 minimization is then used to produce a scaling relation bet...

  13. Earthquake source parameters along the Hellenic subduction zone and numerical simulations of historical tsunamis in the Eastern Mediterranean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yolsal-Çevikbilen, Seda; Taymaz, Tuncay

    2012-04-01

    We studied source mechanism parameters and slip distributions of earthquakes with Mw ≥ 5.0 occurred during 2000-2008 along the Hellenic subduction zone by using teleseismic P- and SH-waveform inversion methods. In addition, the major and well-known earthquake-induced Eastern Mediterranean tsunamis (e.g., 365, 1222, 1303, 1481, 1494, 1822 and 1948) were numerically simulated and several hypothetical tsunami scenarios were proposed to demonstrate the characteristics of tsunami waves, propagations and effects of coastal topography. The analogy of current plate boundaries, earthquake source mechanisms, various earthquake moment tensor catalogues and several empirical self-similarity equations, valid for global or local scales, were used to assume conceivable source parameters which constitute the initial and boundary conditions in simulations. Teleseismic inversion results showed that earthquakes along the Hellenic subduction zone can be classified into three major categories: [1] focal mechanisms of the earthquakes exhibiting E-W extension within the overriding Aegean plate; [2] earthquakes related to the African-Aegean convergence; and [3] focal mechanisms of earthquakes lying within the subducting African plate. Normal faulting mechanisms with left-lateral strike slip components were observed at the eastern part of the Hellenic subduction zone, and we suggest that they were probably concerned with the overriding Aegean plate. However, earthquakes involved in the convergence between the Aegean and the Eastern Mediterranean lithospheres indicated thrust faulting mechanisms with strike slip components, and they had shallow focal depths (h < 45 km). Deeper earthquakes mainly occurred in the subducting African plate, and they presented dominantly strike slip faulting mechanisms. Slip distributions on fault planes showed both complex and simple rupture propagations with respect to the variation of source mechanism and faulting geometry. We calculated low stress drop

  14. Numerical Investigation of Earthquake Nucleation on a Laboratory-Scale Heterogeneous Fault with Rate-and-State Friction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Higgins, N.; Lapusta, N.

    2014-12-01

    Many large earthquakes on natural faults are preceded by smaller events, often termed foreshocks, that occur close in time and space to the larger event that follows. Understanding the origin of such events is important for understanding earthquake physics. Unique laboratory experiments of earthquake nucleation in a meter-scale slab of granite (McLaskey and Kilgore, 2013; McLaskey et al., 2014) demonstrate that sample-scale nucleation processes are also accompanied by much smaller seismic events. One potential explanation for these foreshocks is that they occur on small asperities - or bumps - on the fault interface, which may also be the locations of smaller critical nucleation size. We explore this possibility through 3D numerical simulations of a heterogeneous 2D fault embedded in a homogeneous elastic half-space, in an attempt to qualitatively reproduce the laboratory observations of foreshocks. In our model, the simulated fault interface is governed by rate-and-state friction with laboratory-relevant frictional properties, fault loading, and fault size. To create favorable locations for foreshocks, the fault surface heterogeneity is represented as patches of increased normal stress, decreased characteristic slip distance L, or both. Our simulation results indicate that one can create a rate-and-state model of the experimental observations. Models with a combination of higher normal stress and lower L at the patches are closest to matching the laboratory observations of foreshocks in moment magnitude, source size, and stress drop. In particular, we find that, when the local compression is increased, foreshocks can occur on patches that are smaller than theoretical critical nucleation size estimates. The additional inclusion of lower L for these patches helps to keep stress drops within the range observed in experiments, and is compatible with the asperity model of foreshock sources, since one would expect more compressed spots to be smoother (and hence have

  15. Bayesian hierarchical model for variations in earthquake peak ground acceleration within small-aperture arrays

    KAUST Repository

    Rahpeyma, Sahar; Halldorsson, Benedikt; Hrafnkelsson, Birgir; Jonsson, Sigurjon

    2018-01-01

    Knowledge of the characteristics of earthquake ground motion is fundamental for earthquake hazard assessments. Over small distances, relative to the source–site distance, where uniform site conditions are expected, the ground motion variability is also expected to be insignificant. However, despite being located on what has been characterized as a uniform lava‐rock site condition, considerable peak ground acceleration (PGA) variations were observed on stations of a small‐aperture array (covering approximately 1 km2) of accelerographs in Southwest Iceland during the Ölfus earthquake of magnitude 6.3 on May 29, 2008 and its sequence of aftershocks. We propose a novel Bayesian hierarchical model for the PGA variations accounting separately for earthquake event effects, station effects, and event‐station effects. An efficient posterior inference scheme based on Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulations is proposed for the new model. The variance of the station effect is certainly different from zero according to the posterior density, indicating that individual station effects are different from one another. The Bayesian hierarchical model thus captures the observed PGA variations and quantifies to what extent the source and recording sites contribute to the overall variation in ground motions over relatively small distances on the lava‐rock site condition.

  16. Bayesian hierarchical model for variations in earthquake peak ground acceleration within small-aperture arrays

    KAUST Repository

    Rahpeyma, Sahar

    2018-04-17

    Knowledge of the characteristics of earthquake ground motion is fundamental for earthquake hazard assessments. Over small distances, relative to the source–site distance, where uniform site conditions are expected, the ground motion variability is also expected to be insignificant. However, despite being located on what has been characterized as a uniform lava‐rock site condition, considerable peak ground acceleration (PGA) variations were observed on stations of a small‐aperture array (covering approximately 1 km2) of accelerographs in Southwest Iceland during the Ölfus earthquake of magnitude 6.3 on May 29, 2008 and its sequence of aftershocks. We propose a novel Bayesian hierarchical model for the PGA variations accounting separately for earthquake event effects, station effects, and event‐station effects. An efficient posterior inference scheme based on Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulations is proposed for the new model. The variance of the station effect is certainly different from zero according to the posterior density, indicating that individual station effects are different from one another. The Bayesian hierarchical model thus captures the observed PGA variations and quantifies to what extent the source and recording sites contribute to the overall variation in ground motions over relatively small distances on the lava‐rock site condition.

  17. Study on tsunami due to offshore earthquakes for Korea coast. Literature survey and numerical simulation on earthquake and tsunami in the Japan Sea and the East China Sea

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Matsuyama, Masafumi; Aoyagi, Yasuhira; Inoue, Daiei; Choi, Weon-Hack; Kang, Keum-Seok

    2008-01-01

    In Korea, there has been a concern on tsumami risks for the Nuclear Power Plants since the 1983 Nihonkai-Chubu earthquake tsunami. The maximum run-up height reached 4 m to north of the Ulchin nuclear power plant site. The east coast of Korea was also attacked by a few meters high tsunami generated by the 1993 Hokkaido Nansei-Oki earthquake. Both source areas of them were in the areas western off Hokkaido to the eastern margin of the Japan Sea, which remains another tsunami potential. Therefore it is necessary to study tsunami risks for coast of Korea by means of geological investigation and numerical simulation. Historical records of earthquake and tsunami in the Japan Sea were re-compiled to evaluate tsunami potential. A database of marine active faults in the Japan Sea was compiled to decide a regional potential of tsunami. Many developed reverse faults are found in the areas western off Hokkaido to the eastern margin of the Japan Sea. The authors have found no historical earthquake in the East China Sea which caused tunami observed at coast of Korea. Therefore five fault models were determined on the basis of the analysis results of historical records and recent research results of fault parameter and tunami. Tsunami heights were estimated by numerical simulation of nonlinear dispersion wave theory. The results of the simulations indicate that the tsunami heights in these cases are less than 0.25 m along the coast of Korea, and the tsunami risk by these assumed faults does not lead to severe impact. It is concluded that tsunami occurred in the areas western off Hokkaido to the eastern margin of the Japan Sea leads the most significant impact to Korea consequently. (author)

  18. Numerical Analyses of Earthquake Induced Liquefaction and Deformation Behaviour of an Upstream Tailings Dam

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muhammad Auchar Zardari

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Much of the seismic activity of northern Sweden consists of micro-earthquakes occurring near postglacial faults. However, larger magnitude earthquakes do occur in Sweden, and earthquake statistics indicate that a magnitude 5 event is likely to occur once every century. This paper presents dynamic analyses of the effects of larger earthquakes on an upstream tailings dam at the Aitik copper mine in northern Sweden. The analyses were performed to evaluate the potential for liquefaction and to assess stability of the dam under two specific earthquakes: a commonly occurring magnitude 3.6 event and a more extreme earthquake of magnitude 5.8. The dynamic analyses were carried out with the finite element program PLAXIS using a recently implemented constitutive model called UBCSAND. The results indicate that the magnitude 5.8 earthquake would likely induce liquefaction in a limited zone located below the ground surface near the embankment dikes. It is interpreted that stability of the dam may not be affected due to the limited extent of the liquefied zone. Both types of earthquakes are predicted to induce tolerable magnitudes of displacements. The results of the postseismic slope stability analysis, performed for a state after a seismic event, suggest that the dam is stable during both the earthquakes.

  19. Numerical simulation of small scale soft impact tests

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Varpasuo, Pentti

    2008-01-01

    This paper describes the small scale soft missile impact tests. The purpose of the test program is to provide data for the calibration of the numerical simulation models for impact simulation. In the experiments, both dry and fluid filled missiles are used. The tests with fluid filled missiles investigate the release speed and the droplet size of the fluid release. This data is important in quantifying the fire hazard of flammable liquid after the release. The spray release velocity and droplet size are also input data for analytical and numerical simulation of the liquid spread in the impact. The behaviour of the impact target is the second investigative goal of the test program. The response of reinforced and pre-stressed concrete walls is studied with the aid of displacement and strain monitoring. (authors)

  20. Measurement and numerical simulation of a small centrifugal compressor characteristics at small or negative flow rate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsukamoto, Kaname; Okada, Mizuki; Inokuchi, Yuzo; Yamasaki, Nobuhiko; Yamagata, Akihiro

    2017-04-01

    For centrifugal compressors used in automotive turbochargers, the extension of the surge margin is demanded because of lower engine speed. In order to estimate the surge line exactly, it is required to acquire the compressor characteristics at small or negative flow rate. In this paper, measurement and numerical simulation of the characteristics at small or negative flow rate are carried out. In the measurement, an experimental facility with a valve immediately downstream of the compressor is used to suppress the surge. In the numerical work, a new boundary condition that specifies mass flow rate at the outlet boundary is used to simulate the characteristics around the zero flow rate region. Furthermore, flow field analyses at small or negative flow rate are performed with the numerical results. The separated and re-circulated flow fields are investigated by visualization to identify the origin of losses.

  1. Numerical Modeling on Co-seismic Influence of Wenchuan 8.0 Earthquake in Sichuan-Yunnan Area, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, L.; Li, H.; Lu, Y.; Li, Y.; Ye, J.

    2009-12-01

    In this paper, a three dimensional finite element model for active faults which are handled by contact friction elements in Sichuan-Yunnan area is built. Applying the boundary conditions determined through GPS data, a numerical simulations on spatial patterns of stress-strain changes induced by Wenchuan Ms8.0 earthquake are performed. Some primary results are: a) the co-seismic displacements in Longmen shan fault zone by the initial cracking event benefit not only the NE-direction expanding of subsequent fracture process but also the focal mechanism conversions from thrust to right lateral strike for the most of following sub-cracking events. b) tectonic movements induced by the Wenchuan earthquake are stronger in the upper wall of Longmen shan fault belt than in the lower wall and are influenced remarkably by the northeast boundary faults of the rhombic block. c) the extrema of stress changes induced by the main shock are 106Pa and its spatial size is about 400km long and 100km wide. The total stress level is reduced in the most regions in Longmen shan fault zone, whereas stress change is rather weak in its southwest segment and possibly result in fewer aftershocks in there. d) effects induced by the Wenchuan earthquake to the major active faults are obviously different from each other. e) triggering effect of the Wenchuan earthquake to the following Huili 6.1 earthquake is very weak.

  2. Recognition of Earthquake-Induced Damage in the Abakainon Necropolis (NE Sicily): Results From Geomorphological, Geophysical and Numerical Analyses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bottari, C.; Albano, M.; Capizzi, P.; D'Alessandro, A.; Doumaz, F.; Martorana, R.; Moro, M.; Saroli, M.

    2018-01-01

    Seismotectonic activity and slope instability are a permanent threat in the archaeological site of Abakainon and in the nearby village of Tripi in NE Sicily. In recent times, signs of an ancient earthquake have been identified in the necropolis of Abakainon which dating was ascertained to the first century AD earthquake. The site is located on a slope of Peloritani Mts. along the Tindari Fault Line and contains evidence for earthquake-induced landslide, including fallen columns and blocks, horizontal shift and counter slope tilting of the tomb basements. In this paper, we used an integrated geomorphological and geophysical analysis to constrain the landslide. The research was directed to the acquisition of deep geological data for the reconstruction of slope process and the thickness of mobilized materials. The applied geophysical techniques included seismic refraction tomography and electrical resistivity tomography. The surveys were performed to delineate the sliding surface and to assess approximately the thickness of mobilized materials. The geophysical and geomorphologic data confirmed the presence of different overlapped landslides in the studied area. Moreover, a numerical simulation of the slope under seismic loads supports the hypothesis of a mobilization of the landslide mass in case of strong earthquakes (PGA > 0.3 g). However, numerical results highlight that the main cause of destruction for the Abakainon necropolis is the amplification of the seismic waves, occasionally accompanied by surficial sliding.

  3. Linking fault permeability, fluid flow, and earthquake triggering in a hydrothermally active tectonic setting: Numerical Simulations of the hydrodynamics in the Tjörnes Fracture Zone, Iceland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lupi, M.; Geiger, S.; Graham, C.; Claesson, L.; Richter, B.

    2007-12-01

    A good insight into the transient fluid flow evolution within a hydrothermal system is of primary importance for the understanding of several geologic processes, for example the hydrodynamic triggering of earthquakes or the formation of mineral deposits. The strong permeability contrast between different crustal layers as well as the high geothermal gradient of these areas are elements that strongly affect the flow behaviour. In addition, the sudden and transient occurrence of joints, faults and magmatic intrusions are likely to change the hydrothermal flow paths in very short time. The Tjörnes Fracture Zone (TFZ) north of Iceland, is such a hydrothermal area where a high geothermal gradient, magmatic bodies, faults, and the strong contrast between sediments and fractured lava layers govern the large-scale fluid flow. The TFZ offsets the Kolbeinsey Ridge and the Northern Rift Zone. It is characterized by km-scale faults that link sub-seafloor sediments and lava layers with deeper crystalline rocks. These structures focus fluid flow and allow for the mixing between cold seawater and deep hydrothermal fluids. A strong seismic activity is present in the TFZ: earthquakes up to magnitude 7 have been recorded over the past years. Hydrogeochemical changes before, during and after a magnitude 5.8 earthquake suggest that the evolving stress state before the earthquake leads to (remote) permeability variations, which alter the fluid flow paths. This is in agreement with recent numerical fluid flow simulations which demonstrate that fluid flow in magmatic- hydrothermal systems is often convective and very sensitive to small variations in permeability. In order to understand the transient fluid flow behaviour in this complex geological environment, we have conducted numerical simulations of heat and mass transport in two geologically realistic cross-sectional models of the TFZ. The geologic models are discretised using finite element and finite volume methods. They hence have

  4. Numerical modeling of liquefaction-induced failure of geo-structures subjected to earthquakes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rapti, Ioanna

    2016-01-01

    The increasing importance of performance-based earthquake engineering analysis points out the necessity to assess quantitatively the risk of liquefaction. In this extreme scenario of soil liquefaction, devastating consequences are observed, e.g. excessive settlements, lateral spreading and slope instability. The present PhD thesis discusses the global dynamic response and interaction of an earth structure-foundation system, so as to determine quantitatively the collapse mechanism due to foundation's soil liquefaction. As shear band generation is a potential earthquake-induced failure mode in such structures, the FE mesh dependency of results of dynamic analyses is thoroughly investigated and an existing regularization method is evaluated. The open-source FE software developed by EDF R and D, called Code-Aster, is used for the numerical simulations, while soil behavior is represented by the ECP constitutive model, developed at Centrale-Supelec. Starting from a simplified model of 1D SH wave propagation in a soil column with coupled hydro-mechanical nonlinear behavior, the effect of seismic hazard and soil's permeability on liquefaction is assessed. Input ground motion is a key component for soil liquefaction apparition, as long duration of main shock can lead to important nonlinearity and extended soil liquefaction. Moreover, when a variation of permeability as function of liquefaction state is considered, changes in the dissipation phase of excess pore water pressure and material behavior are observed, which do not follow a single trend. The effect of a regularization method with enhanced kinematics approach, called first gradient of dilation model, on 1D SH wave propagation is studied through an analytical solution. Deficiencies of the use of this regularization method are observed and discussed, e.g. spurious waves apparition in the soil's seismic response. Next, a 2D embankment-type model is simulated and its dynamic response is evaluated in dry, fully drained

  5. Numerical Simulation of Stress evolution and earthquake sequence of the Tibetan Plateau

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, Peiyu; Hu, Caibo; Shi, Yaolin

    2015-04-01

    The India-Eurasia's collision produces N-S compression and results in large thrust fault in the southern edge of the Tibetan Plateau. Differential eastern flow of the lower crust of the plateau leads to large strike-slip faults and normal faults within the plateau. From 1904 to 2014, more than 30 earthquakes of Mw > 6.5 occurred sequentially in this distinctive tectonic environment. How did the stresses evolve during the last 110 years, how did the earthquakes interact with each other? Can this knowledge help us to forecast the future seismic hazards? In this essay, we tried to simulate the evolution of the stress field and the earthquake sequence in the Tibetan plateau within the last 110 years with a 2-D finite element model. Given an initial state of stress, the boundary condition was constrained by the present-day GPS observation, which was assumed as a constant rate during the 110 years. We calculated stress evolution year by year, and earthquake would occur if stress exceed the crustal strength. Stress changes due to each large earthquake in the sequence was calculated and contributed to the stress evolution. A key issue is the choice of initial stress state of the modeling, which is actually unknown. Usually, in the study of earthquake triggering, people assume the initial stress is zero, and only calculate the stress changes by large earthquakes - the Coulomb failure stress changes (Δ CFS). To some extent, this simplified method is a powerful tool because it can reveal which fault or which part of a fault becomes more risky or safer relatively. Nonetheless, it has not utilized all information available to us. The earthquake sequence reveals, though far from complete, some information about the stress state in the region. If the entire region is close to a self-organized critical or subcritical state, earthquake stress drop provides an estimate of lower limit of initial state. For locations no earthquakes occurred during the period, initial stress has to be

  6. Numerical simulation of multiple-physical fields coupling for thermal anomalies before earthquakes: A case study of the 2008 Wenchuan Ms8.0 earthquake in southwest China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deng, Z.

    2017-12-01

    It has become a highly focused issue that thermal anomalies appear before major earthquakes. There are various hypotheses about the mechanism of thermal anomalies. Because of lacking of enough evidences, the mechanism is still require to be further researched. Gestation and occurrence of a major earthquake is related with the interaction of multi-physical fields. The underground fluid surging out the surface is very likely to be the reason for the thermal anomaly. This study tries to answer some question, such as how the geothermal energy transfer to the surface, and how the multiple-physical fields interacted. The 2008 Wenchuan Ms8.0 earthquake, is one of the largest evens in the last decade in China mainland. Remote sensing studies indicate that distinguishable thermal anomalies occurred several days before the earthquake. The heat anomaly value is more than 3 times the average in normal time and distributes along the Longmen Shan fault zone. Based on geological and geophysical data, 2D dynamic model of coupled stress, seepage and thermal fields (HTM model) is constructed. Then using the COMSOL multi-physics filed software, this work tries to reveal the generation process and distribution patterns of thermal anomalies prior to thrust-type major earthquakes. The simulation get the results: (1)Before the micro rupture, with the increase of compression, the heat current flows to the fault in the footwall on the whole, while in the hanging wall of the fault, particularly near the ground surface, the heat flow upward. In the fault zone, heat flow upward along the fracture surface, heat flux in the fracture zone is slightly larger than the wall rock;, but the value is all very small. (2)After the occurrence of the micro fracture, the heat flow rapidly collects to the faults. In the fault zones, the heat flow accelerates up along the fracture surfaces, the heat flux increases suddenly, and the vertical heat flux reaches to the maximum. The heat flux in the 3 fracture

  7. Numerical investigation of airfoils for small wind turbine applications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Natarajan Karthikeyan

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available A detailed numerical investigation of the aerodynamic performance on the five airfoils namely Mid321a, Mid321b, Mid321c, Mid321d, and Mid321e were carried out at Reynolds numbers ranging from 0.5×105 to 2.5×105. The airfoils used for small wind turbines are designed for Reynolds number ranges between 3×105 and 5×105 and the blades are tend to work on off-design conditions. The blade element moment method was applied to predict the aerodynamic loads, power coefficient, and blade parameters for the airfoils. Based on the evaluate data, it was found that Mid321c airfoil has better lift to drag ratio over the range of Reynolds numbers and attained maximum power coefficient of 0.4487 at Re = 2×105.

  8. Activity of Small Repeating Earthquakes along Izu-Bonin and Ryukyu Trenches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hibino, K.; Matsuzawa, T.; Uchida, N.; Nakamura, W.; Matsushima, T.

    2014-12-01

    There are several subduction systems near the Japanese islands. The 2011 Mw9.0 Tohoku-oki megathrust earthquake occurred at the NE Japan (Tohoku) subduction zone. We have revealed a complementary relation between the slip areas for huge earthquakes and small repeating earthquakes (REs) in Tohoku. Investigations of REs in these subduction zones and the comparison with Tohoku area are important for revealing generation mechanism of megathrust earthquakes. Our target areas are Izu-Bonin and Ryukyu subduction zones, which appear to generate no large interplate earthquake. To investigate coupling of plate boundary in these regions, we estimated spatial distribution of slip rate by using REs. We use seismograms from the High Sensitivity Seismograph Network (Hi-net), Full Range Seismograph Network of Japan (F-net), and permanent seismic stations of Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), Tohoku University, University of Tokyo, and Kagoshima University from 8 May 2003 (Izu-Bonin) and 14 July 2005 (Ryukyu) to 31 December 2012 to detect REs along the two trenches, by using similarity of seismograms. We mainly follow the procedure adopted in Uchida and Matsuzawa (2013) that studied REs in Tohoku area to compare our results with the REs in Tohoku. We find that the RE distribution along the Ryukyu trench shows two bands parallel to the trench axis. This feature is similar to the pattern in Tohoku where relatively large earthquakes occur between the bands. Along the Izu-Bonin trench, on the other hand, we find much fewer REs than in Tohoku or Ryukyu subduction zones and only one along-trench RE band, which corresponds to the area where the subducting Pacific plate contacts with the crust of the Philippine Sea plate. We also estimate average slip rate and coupling coefficient by using an empirical relationship between seismic moment and slip for REs (Nadeau and Johnson, 1998) and relative plate motion model. As a result, we find interplate slip rate in the deeper band is higher than

  9. Development of small scale cluster computer for numerical analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zulkifli, N. H. N.; Sapit, A.; Mohammed, A. N.

    2017-09-01

    In this study, two units of personal computer were successfully networked together to form a small scale cluster. Each of the processor involved are multicore processor which has four cores in it, thus made this cluster to have eight processors. Here, the cluster incorporate Ubuntu 14.04 LINUX environment with MPI implementation (MPICH2). Two main tests were conducted in order to test the cluster, which is communication test and performance test. The communication test was done to make sure that the computers are able to pass the required information without any problem and were done by using simple MPI Hello Program where the program written in C language. Additional, performance test was also done to prove that this cluster calculation performance is much better than single CPU computer. In this performance test, four tests were done by running the same code by using single node, 2 processors, 4 processors, and 8 processors. The result shows that with additional processors, the time required to solve the problem decrease. Time required for the calculation shorten to half when we double the processors. To conclude, we successfully develop a small scale cluster computer using common hardware which capable of higher computing power when compare to single CPU processor, and this can be beneficial for research that require high computing power especially numerical analysis such as finite element analysis, computational fluid dynamics, and computational physics analysis.

  10. Numerical investigation of heat transfer effects in small wave rotor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Deng, Shi; Okamoto, Koji; Teramoto, Susumu

    2015-01-01

    Although a wave rotor is expected to enhance the performance of the ultra-micro gas turbine, the device itself may be affected by downsizing. Apart from the immediate effect of viscosity on flow dynamics when downscaled, the effects of heat transfer on flow field increase at such small scales. To gain an insight into the effects of heat transfer on the internal flow dynamics, numerical investigations were carried out with adiabatic, isothermal and conjugate heat transfer boundary treatments at the wall, and the results compared and discussed in the present study. With the light shed by the discussion of adiabatic and conjugate heat transfer boundary treatments, this work presents investigations of the heat flux distributions, as well as the effects of heat transfer on the internal flow dynamics and the consequent charging and discharging processes for various sizes. When heat transfer is taken into account, states of fluid in the cell before compression process varies, shock waves in compression process are found to be weaker, and changes in the charging and discharging processes are observed. Heat transfer differences between conjugate heat transfer boundary treatment and isothermal boundary treatment are addressed through comparisons of local wall temperature and heat flux. As a result, the difference in discharging temperature of high pressure fluid is noticeable in all sizes investigated, and the rapid increase of differences between results of isothermal and conjugate heat transfer boundary treatment in small size reveals that for certain small sizes (length of cell < 23 mm) the thermal boundary treatment should be taken care of.

  11. Numerical simulation of faulting in the Sunda Trench shows that seamounts may generate megathrust earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiao, L.; Chan, C. H.; Tapponnier, P.

    2017-12-01

    The role of seamounts in generating earthquakes has been debated, with some studies suggesting that seamounts could be truncated to generate megathrust events, while other studies indicate that the maximum size of megathrust earthquakes could be reduced as subducting seamounts could lead to segmentation. The debate is highly relevant for the seamounts discovered along the Mentawai patch of the Sunda Trench, where previous studies have suggested that a megathrust earthquake will likely occur within decades. In order to model the dynamic behavior of the Mentawai patch, we simulated forearc faulting caused by seamount subducting using the Discrete Element Method. Our models show that rupture behavior in the subduction system is dominated by stiffness of the overriding plate. When stiffness is low, a seamount can be a barrier to rupture propagation, resulting in several smaller (M≤8.0) events. If, however, stiffness is high, a seamount can cause a megathrust earthquake (M8 class). In addition, we show that a splay fault in the subduction environment could only develop when a seamount is present, and a larger offset along a splay fault is expected when stiffness of the overriding plate is higher. Our dynamic models are not only consistent with previous findings from seismic profiles and earthquake activities, but the models also better constrain the rupture behavior of the Mentawai patch, thus contributing to subsequent seismic hazard assessment.

  12. Moment Magnitudes and Local Magnitudes for Small Earthquakes: Implications for Ground-Motion Prediction and b-values

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baltay, A.; Hanks, T. C.; Vernon, F.

    2016-12-01

    We illustrate two essential consequences of the systematic difference between moment magnitude and local magnitude for small earthquakes, illuminating the underlying earthquake physics. Moment magnitude, M 2/3 log M0, is uniformly valid for all earthquake sizes [Hanks and Kanamori, 1979]. However, the relationship between local magnitude ML and moment is itself magnitude dependent. For moderate events, 3> fmax. Just as importantly, if this relation is overlooked, prediction of large-magnitude ground motion from small earthquakes will be misguided. We also consider the effect of this magnitude scale difference on b-value. The oft-cited b-value of 1 should hold for small magnitudes, given M. Use of ML necessitates b=2/3 for the same data set; use of mixed, or unknown, magnitudes complicates the matter further. This is of particular import when estimating the rate of large earthquakes when one has limited data on their recurrence, as is the case for induced earthquakes in the central US.

  13. Seismic Response of Tunnel Lining for Shallow-Bias Tunnel with a Small Clear Distance under Wenchuan Earthquake

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yang Hui

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available In order to study the internal force characteristics of shallow-bias tunnel with a small clear distance in earthquake, a large-scale shaking table slope model test was designed, and the geometric scale was 1 : 10. In the model test, the Wenchuan (WC seismic wave was used as the excitation wave. Then, the three-dimensional numerical model was established by using MIDAS-NX, and the reliability of the numerical model was verified by comparing the acceleration of the test results. The axial force, bending moment, and shear force of the tunnel cross section and longitudinal direction were calculated by the numerical model under different excitation directions included the horizontal direction (X, the vertical direction (Z, and the horizontal and vertical direction (XZ. The results show the following. (1 The internal force of right arch foot of left hole and the left arch foot of right hole is larger than other part of the tunnels because the distance between the two tunnels is smaller and they interact with each other. (2 The loading direction of single direction loading method is different and the variation trend of tunnel force are different, so the loading direction of seismic wave has a significant influence on the seismic force response of the tunnel. (3 All of the internal force values of tunnel lining under the seismic wave action in bidirection are larger than those in single direction. The value is not a simple superposition of two directions and has some coupling effect. The influence of the vertical seismic wave cannot be ignored in dynamic response research. These results improve the understanding of the rock slope with small spacing tunnel under seismic action.

  14. Feasibility study of EEW application in Korea ; Testing different frequency bands for small earthquakes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chi, H. C.; Park, J. H.; Sheen, D. H.

    2009-04-01

    At present, it seems almost impossible to predict where and how much strong a earthquake will happen within very limited time such as two or three days before it occurs. However, the advantage of modern electronic techniques can support us very fast communication tools around nation-wide area so that we can receive P- waves arrival information from seismic stations through communication lines before S-waves strike our living site. This is the key of EEW(Earthquake Early Warning) concept that is under development around world especially including Japan, United State of America, and Taiwan. In this pilot study we proposed the direction for developing Korean Earthquake Early Warning System. Considering the state of the art techniques used in Japan, USA and Taiwan, ElarmS would be more adaptable to Korea since ElarmS can work from the low limit of moderate earthquakes around magnitude 3.5, which would annually happen in Korea. Using 27 events ranging in magnitude from 2.2 to 4.9 occurring in South Korea for 2007, we investigate empirical magnitude scaling relationships in South Korea due to the variation of the duration of the P waveform. We measure the maximum predominant period and the peak displacement or velocity amplitude from the first few seconds of P wave arrivals to derive period-magnitude and amplitude-magnitude scaling relationship, respectively. We find that it is possible to determine the magnitude of earthquakes only using the first 2 seconds of the P wave and, for the period-magnitude relationship, 10 Hz low-pass filter yields better estimate than 3 Hz. This is because the magnitudes of most events used in this study are too small (<3.0). It is also shown that peak displacement for velocity instruments and peak velocity for accelerometers have their own magnitude scaling relationships, respectively. Thus, for the amplitude-magnitude relationship, like the relationships in northern California, two individual amplitude scaling relationships would be

  15. Letter to the Editor : Rapidly-deployed small tent hospitals: lessons from the earthquake in Haiti.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rosen, Y.; Gurman , P.; Verna, E.; Elman , N.; Labor, E. (Materials Science Division); (Superior NanoBioSystems LLC); (Fast Israeli Rescue & Search Team); (Clinique Adonai); (Mass. Inst. Tech.); (Univ. Haifa)

    2012-06-01

    The damage to medical facilities resulting form the January 2010 earthquake in haiti necessitated the establishment of field tent hospitals. Much of the local medical infrastructure was destroyed or limited operationally when the Fast Israel Rescue and Search Team (FIRST) arrived in Haiti shortly after the January 2010 earthquake. The FIRST deployed small tent hospitals in Port-au-Prince and in 11 remote areas outside of the city. Each tent was set up in less than a half hour. The tents were staffed with an orthopedic surgeon, gynecologists, primary care and emergency care physicians, a physician with previous experience in tropical medicine, nurses, paramedics, medics, and psychologists. The rapidly deployable and temporary nature of the effort allowed the team to treat and educate, as well as provide supplies for, thousands of refugees throughout Haiti. In addition, a local Haitian physician and his team created a small tent hospital to serve the Petion Refugee Camp and its environs. FIRST personnel also took shifts at this hospital.

  16. Experimental, theoretical, and numerical studies of small scale combustion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Bo

    Recently, the demand increased for the development of microdevices such as microsatellites, microaerial vehicles, micro reactors, and micro power generators. To meet those demands the biggest challenge is obtaining stable and complete combustion at relatively small scale. To gain a fundamental understanding of small scale combustion in this thesis, thermal and kinetic coupling between the gas phase and the structure at meso and micro scales were theoretically, experimentally, and numerically studied; new stabilization and instability phenomena were identified; and new theories for the dynamic mechanisms of small scale combustion were developed. The reduction of thermal inertia at small scale significantly reduces the response time of the wall and leads to a strong flame-wall coupling and extension of burning limits. Mesoscale flame propagation and extinction in small quartz tubes were theoretically, experimentally and numerically studied. It was found that wall-flame interaction in mesoscale combustion led to two different flame regimes, a heat-loss dominant fast flame regime and a wall-flame coupling slow flame regime. The nonlinear transition between the two flame regimes was strongly dependent on the channel width and flow velocity. It is concluded that the existence of multiple flame regimes is an inherent phenomenon in mesoscale combustion. In addition, all practical combustors have variable channel width in the direction of flame propagation. Quasi-steady and unsteady propagations of methane and propane-air premixed flames in a mesoscale divergent channel were investigated experimentally and theoretically. The emphasis was the impact of variable cross-section area and the flame-wall coupling on the flame transition between different regimes and the onset of flame instability. For the first time, spinning flames were experimentally observed for both lean and rich methane and propane-air mixtures in a broad range of equivalence ratios. An effective Lewis number

  17. Earthquake induced variations in extrusion rate: A numerical modeling approach to the 2006 eruption of Merapi Volcano (Indonesia)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carr, Brett B.; Clarke, Amanda B.; de'Michieli Vitturi, Mattia

    2018-01-01

    Extrusion rates during lava dome-building eruptions are variable and eruption sequences at these volcanoes generally have multiple phases. Merapi Volcano, Java, Indonesia, exemplifies this common style of activity. Merapi is one of Indonesia's most active volcanoes and during the 20th and early 21st centuries effusive activity has been characterized by long periods of very slow (work has suggested that the peak extrusion rates observed in early June were triggered by the earthquake through either dynamic stress-induced overpressure or the addition of CO2 due to decarbonation and gas escape from new fractures in the bedrock. We use the numerical model to test the feasibility of these proposed hypotheses and show that, in order to explain the observed change in extrusion rate, an increase of approximately 5-7 MPa in magma storage zone overpressure is required. We also find that the addition of ∼1000 ppm CO2 to some portion of the magma in the storage zone following the earthquake reduces water solubility such that gas exsolution is sufficient to generate the required overpressure. Thus, the proposed mechanism of CO2 addition is a viable explanation for the peak phase of the Merapi 2006 eruption. A time-series of extrusion rate shows a sudden increase three days following the earthquake. We explain this three-day delay by the combined time required for the effects of the earthquake and corresponding CO2 increase to develop in the magma storage system (1-2 days), and the time we calculate for the affected magma to ascend from storage zone to surface (40 h). The increased extrusion rate was sustained for 2-7 days before dissipating and returning to pre-earthquake levels. During this phase, we estimate that 3.5 million m3 DRE of magma was erupted along with 11 ktons of CO2. The final phase of the 2006 eruption was characterized by highly variable extrusion rates. We demonstrate that those changes were likely controlled by failure of the edifice that had been confining

  18. Numerical experiment on tsunami deposit distribution process by using tsunami sediment transport model in historical tsunami event of megathrust Nankai trough earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Imai, K.; Sugawara, D.; Takahashi, T.

    2017-12-01

    A large flow caused by tsunami transports sediments from beach and forms tsunami deposits in land and coastal lakes. A tsunami deposit has been found in their undisturbed on coastal lakes especially. Okamura & Matsuoka (2012) found some tsunami deposits in the field survey of coastal lakes facing to the Nankai trough, and tsunami deposits due to the past eight Nankai Trough megathrust earthquakes they identified. The environment in coastal lakes is stably calm and suitable for tsunami deposits preservation compared to other topographical conditions such as plains. Therefore, there is a possibility that the recurrence interval of megathrust earthquakes and tsunamis will be discussed with high resolution. In addition, it has been pointed out that small events that cannot be detected in plains could be separated finely (Sawai, 2012). Various aspects of past tsunami is expected to be elucidated, in consideration of topographical conditions of coastal lakes by using the relationship between the erosion-and-sedimentation process of the lake bottom and the external force of tsunami. In this research, numerical examination based on tsunami sediment transport model (Takahashi et al., 1999) was carried out on the site Ryujin-ike pond of Ohita, Japan where tsunami deposit was identified, and deposit migration analysis was conducted on the tsunami deposit distribution process of historical Nankai Trough earthquakes. Furthermore, examination of tsunami source conditions is possibly investigated by comparison studies of the observed data and the computation of tsunami deposit distribution. It is difficult to clarify details of tsunami source from indistinct information of paleogeographical conditions. However, this result shows that it can be used as a constraint condition of the tsunami source scale by combining tsunami deposit distribution in lakes with computation data.

  19. Automatic computation of moment magnitudes for small earthquakes and the scaling of local to moment magnitude

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edwards, Benjamin; Allmann, Bettina; Fäh, Donat; Clinton, John

    2010-10-01

    Moment magnitudes (MW) are computed for small and moderate earthquakes using a spectral fitting method. 40 of the resulting values are compared with those from broadband moment tensor solutions and found to match with negligible offset and scatter for available MW values of between 2.8 and 5.0. Using the presented method, MW are computed for 679 earthquakes in Switzerland with a minimum ML = 1.3. A combined bootstrap and orthogonal L1 minimization is then used to produce a scaling relation between ML and MW. The scaling relation has a polynomial form and is shown to reduce the dependence of the predicted MW residual on magnitude relative to an existing linear scaling relation. The computation of MW using the presented spectral technique is fully automated at the Swiss Seismological Service, providing real-time solutions within 10 minutes of an event through a web-based XML database. The scaling between ML and MW is explored using synthetic data computed with a stochastic simulation method. It is shown that the scaling relation can be explained by the interaction of attenuation, the stress-drop and the Wood-Anderson filter. For instance, it is shown that the stress-drop controls the saturation of the ML scale, with low-stress drops (e.g. 0.1-1.0 MPa) leading to saturation at magnitudes as low as ML = 4.

  20. Monitoring the West Bohemian earthquake swarm in 2008/2009 by a temporary small-aperture seismic array

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hiemer, Stefan; Rössler, Dirk; Scherbaum, Frank

    2012-01-01

    The most recent intense earthquake swarm in West Bohemia lasted from 6 October 2008 to January 2009. Starting 12 days after the onset, the University of Potsdam monitored the swarm by a temporary small-aperture seismic array at 10 km epicentral distance. The purpose of the installation...

  1. Experimental and numerical comparison of absorption optimization in small rooms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wincentz, Jakob Nygård; Garcia, Julian Martinez-Villalba; Jeong, Cheol-Ho

    2016-01-01

    A vast majority of modern music is recorded and produced in small control room environments of volumes of around 50 m3 . Several problems occur when controlling the room acoustics of such small spaces. First, the room modes will produce strong peaks and dips particularly at lower frequencies......, and even in the sweet spot position the listening experience can be easily deteriorated. Second, when designing or refurbishing small rooms it is hard to adequately predict the reverberation time by using Sabine’s formula due to highly non-diffuse conditions and using a statistical approach below......, boundary conditions, and phase information providing accuracy at low frequencies. Good agreements are found between measurements and simulations, confirming that FEM can be used as a design tool for optimizing absorption and acoustic parameters in small rooms...

  2. Experimental and numerical comparison of absorption optimization in small rooms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wincentz, Jakob Nygård; Garcia, Julian Martinez-Villalba; Jeong, Cheol-Ho

    2016-01-01

    the Schroeder frequency. This project investigates experimentally changes in the room acoustic parameters by altering the positioning and orientation of porous materials in a small room, which are compared with finite element method (FEM) simulations. FEM is able to take into account the exact room geometry......, boundary conditions, and phase information providing accuracy at low frequencies. Good agreements are found between measurements and simulations, confirming that FEM can be used as a design tool for optimizing absorption and acoustic parameters in small rooms...

  3. Numerical modeling of the deformations associated with large subduction earthquakes through the seismic cycle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fleitout, L.; Trubienko, O.; Garaud, J.; Vigny, C.; Cailletaud, G.; Simons, W. J.; Satirapod, C.; Shestakov, N.

    2012-12-01

    A 3D finite element code (Zebulon-Zset) is used to model deformations through the seismic cycle in the areas surrounding the last three large subduction earthquakes: Sumatra, Japan and Chile. The mesh featuring a broad spherical shell portion with a viscoelastic asthenosphere is refined close to the subduction zones. The model is constrained by 6 years of postseismic data in Sumatra area and over a year of data for Japan and Chile plus preseismic data in the three areas. The coseismic displacements on the subduction plane are inverted from the coseismic displacements using the finite element program and provide the initial stresses. The predicted horizontal postseismic displacements depend upon the thicknesses of the elastic plate and of the low viscosity asthenosphere. Non-dimensionalized by the coseismic displacements, they present an almost uniform value between 500km and 1500km from the trench for elastic plates 80km thick. The time evolution of the velocities is function of the creep law (Maxwell, Burger or power-law creep). Moreover, the forward models predict a sizable far-field subsidence, also with a spatial distribution which varies with the geometry of the asthenosphere and lithosphere. Slip on the subduction interface does not induce such a subsidence. The observed horizontal velocities, divided by the coseismic displacement, present a similar pattern as function of time and distance from trench for the three areas, indicative of similar lithospheric and asthenospheric thicknesses and asthenospheric viscosity. This pattern cannot be fitted with power-law creep in the asthenosphere but indicates a lithosphere 60 to 90km thick and an asthenosphere of thickness of the order of 100km with a burger rheology represented by a Kelvin-Voigt element with a viscosity of 3.1018Pas and μKelvin=μelastic/3. A second Kelvin-Voigt element with very limited amplitude may explain some characteristics of the short time-scale signal. The postseismic subsidence is

  4. On the Numerical Modeling of Confined Masonry Structures for In-plane Earthquake Loads

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mircea Barnaure

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available The seismic design of confined masonry structures involves the use of numerical models. As there are many parameters that influence the structural behavior, these models can be very complex and unsuitable for the current design purposes of practicing engineers. Simplified models could lead to reasonably accurate results, but caution should be given to the simplification assumptions. An analysis of various parameters considered in the numerical modeling of confined masonry structural walls is made. Conclusions regarding the influence of simplified procedures on the results are drawn.

  5. Numerical study on small scale vertical axis wind turbine

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Parra-Santos Teresa

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The performance of a Vertical Axis Wind Turbine (VAWT is numerically analyzed. The set-up is Hdarrieus with three straight blades airfoils NACA attached to a rotating vertical shaft. The wind turbine has solidity equals to the unity operating with wind velocity of 7 m/s. Influence of pitch angle is tested to get design tendencies. 2D, transient, Navier Stokes equations are solved using the code Ansys-Fluent. Conservation equations were solved with a Third-Order MUSCL scheme using SIMPLE to couple pressure and velocity. More than six revolutions must be simulated to get the periodic behavior. Two models of turbulence have been contrasted Realizable k-epsilon and Transition SST concluding the last one show more realistic flow features. Pitch angles of 0º, -6º and -10º have been tested with Tip Speed Ratios ranging from 0.7 and 1.6. The no null pitch angles improve the performance of the wind turbine. Instantaneous and averaged power coefficients as well as detailed flow field around the airfoils are showed.

  6. Numerical Modeling of Earthquake-Induced Landslide Using an Improved Discontinuous Deformation Analysis Considering Dynamic Friction Degradation of Joints

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Da; Song, Yixiang; Cen, Duofeng; Fu, Guoyang

    2016-12-01

    Discontinuous deformation analysis (DDA) as an efficient technique has been extensively applied in the dynamic simulation of discontinuous rock mass. In the original DDA (ODDA), the Mohr-Coulomb failure criterion is employed as the judgment principle of failure between contact blocks, and the friction coefficient is assumed to be constant in the whole calculation process. However, it has been confirmed by a host of shear tests that the dynamic friction of rock joints degrades. Therefore, the friction coefficient should be gradually reduced during the numerical simulation of an earthquake-induced rockslide. In this paper, based on the experimental results of cyclic shear tests on limestone joints, exponential regression formulas are fitted for dynamic friction degradation, which is a function of the relative velocity, the amplitude of cyclic shear displacement and the number of its cycles between blocks with an edge-to-edge contact. Then, an improved DDA (IDDA) is developed by implementing the fitting regression formulas and a modified removing technique of joint cohesion, in which the cohesion is removed once the `sliding' or `open' state between blocks appears for the first time, into the ODDA. The IDDA is first validated by comparing with the theoretical solutions of the kinematic behaviors of a sliding block on an inclined plane under dynamic loading. Then, the program is applied to model the Donghekou landslide triggered by the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake in China. The simulation results demonstrate that the dynamic friction degradation of joints has great influences on the runout and velocity of sliding mass. Moreover, the friction coefficient possesses higher impact than the cohesion of joints on the kinematic behaviors of the sliding mass.

  7. Numerical simulation of a small-scale biomass boiler

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Collazo, J.; Porteiro, J.; Míguez, J.L.; Granada, E.; Gómez, M.A.

    2012-01-01

    Highlights: ► Simplified model for biomass combustion was developed. ► Porous zone conditions are used in the bed. ► Model is fully integrated in a commercial CFD code to simulate a small scale pellet boiler. ► Pollutant emissions are well predicted. ► Simulation provides extensive information about the behaviour of the boiler. - Abstract: This paper presents a computational fluid dynamic simulation of a domestic pellet boiler. Combustion of the solid fuel in the burner is an important issue when discussing the simulation of this type of system. A simplified method based on a thermal balance was developed in this work to introduce the effects provoked by pellet combustion in the boiler simulation. The model predictions were compared with the experimental measurements, and a good agreement was found. The results of the boiler analysis show that the position of the water tubes, the distribution of the air inlets and the air infiltrations are the key factors leading to the high emission levels present in this type of system.

  8. Monitoring the West Bohemian earthquake swarm in 2008/2009 by a temporary small-aperture seismic array

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hiemer, Stefan; Roessler, Dirk; Scherbaum, Frank

    2012-04-01

    The most recent intense earthquake swarm in West Bohemia lasted from 6 October 2008 to January 2009. Starting 12 days after the onset, the University of Potsdam monitored the swarm by a temporary small-aperture seismic array at 10 km epicentral distance. The purpose of the installation was a complete monitoring of the swarm including micro-earthquakes ( M L 0.0). In the course of this work, the main temporal features (frequency-magnitude distribution, propagation of back azimuth and horizontal slowness, occurrence rate of aftershock sequences and interevent-time distribution) of the recent 2008/2009 earthquake swarm are presented and discussed. Temporal changes of the coefficient of variation (based on interevent times) suggest that the swarm earthquake activity of the 2008/2009 swarm terminates by 12 January 2009. During the main phase in our studied swarm period after 19 October, the b value of the Gutenberg-Richter relation decreases from 1.2 to 0.8. This trend is also reflected in the power-law behavior of the seismic moment release. The corresponding total seismic moment release of 1.02×1017 Nm is equivalent to M L,max = 5.4.

  9. Flood Simulation Using WMS Model in Small Watershed after Strong Earthquake -A Case Study of Longxihe Watershed, Sichuan province, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, B.

    2017-12-01

    Mountain watershed in Western China is prone to flash floods. The Wenchuan earthquake on May 12, 2008 led to the destruction of surface, and frequent landslides and debris flow, which further exacerbated the flash flood hazards. Two giant torrent and debris flows occurred due to heavy rainfall after the earthquake, one was on August 13 2010, and the other on August 18 2010. Flash floods reduction and risk assessment are the key issues in post-disaster reconstruction. Hydrological prediction models are important and cost-efficient mitigation tools being widely applied. In this paper, hydrological observations and simulation using remote sensing data and the WMS model are carried out in the typical flood-hit area, Longxihe watershed, Dujiangyan City, Sichuan Province, China. The hydrological response of rainfall runoff is discussed. The results show that: the WMS HEC-1 model can well simulate the runoff process of small watershed in mountainous area. This methodology can be used in other earthquake-affected areas for risk assessment and to predict the magnitude of flash floods. Key Words: Rainfall-runoff modeling. Remote Sensing. Earthquake. WMS.

  10. An Experimental-Numerical Study of Small Scale Flow Interaction with Bioluminescent Plankton

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Latz, Michael

    1998-01-01

    Numerical and experimental approaches were used to investigate the effects of quantified flow stimuli on bioluminescence sUmulatidn at the small length and time scales appropriate for individual plankton...

  11. Numerical simulations (2D) on the influence of pre-existing local structures and seismic source characteristics in earthquake-volcano interactions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farías, Cristian; Galván, Boris; Miller, Stephen A.

    2017-09-01

    Earthquake triggering of hydrothermal and volcanic systems is ubiquitous, but the underlying processes driving these systems are not well-understood. We numerically investigate the influence of seismic wave interaction with volcanic systems simulated as a trapped, high-pressure fluid reservoir connected to a fluid-filled fault system in a 2-D poroelastic medium. Different orientations and earthquake magnitudes are studied to quantify dynamic and static stress, and pore pressure changes induced by a seismic event. Results show that although the response of the system is mainly dominated by characteristics of the radiated seismic waves, local structures can also play an important role on the system dynamics. The fluid reservoir affects the seismic wave front, distorts the static overpressure pattern induced by the earthquake, and concentrates the kinetic energy of the incoming wave on its boundaries. The static volumetric stress pattern inside the fault system is also affected by the local structures. Our results show that local faults play an important role in earthquake-volcanic systems dynamics by concentrating kinetic energy inside and acting as wave-guides that have a breakwater-like behavior. This generates sudden changes in pore pressure, volumetric expansion, and stress gradients. Local structures also influence the regional Coulomb yield function. Our results show that local structures affect the dynamics of volcanic and hydrothermal systems, and should be taken into account when investigating triggering of these systems from nearby or distant earthquakes.

  12. Evaluation of overturning capacity of low level radioactive waste drum during earthquake. Part 2. Investigation of drum weight distribution effect and drum columns interaction by numerical analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tochigi, Hitoshi

    2011-01-01

    Numerical analysis case study is carried out for three layered and four layered low level radioactive waste drums by numerical models based on the results of shaking table test. First of all, numerical analysis results about drums displacement due to uplift and sliding on pallets during earthquake are compared with the experimental results and it is shown good agreement in both results. By this analytical model effects of drum weight distribution along height direction and drum columns interaction followed by each other drum's collisions on overturning capacity during earthquake are researched. From numerical analysis results the limit acceleration which is minimum value of input acceleration at storage building floor when three layered or four layered waste drums overturn is researched. It is shown that overturning capacity during earthquake decline when height of gravity center of three layered and four layered drums get large. So it is available to get down height of gravity center by controlling drum weight distribution along height direction. And as effect of drum columns interaction it is indicated that overturning capacity of single column arrangement drums is larger than that of many columns arrangement drums because phase deference between drum columns occur and decrease vibration amplitude by each other collisions. (author)

  13. Visualization of strong around motion calculated from the numerical simulation of Hyogo-ken Nanbu earthquake; Suchi simulation de miru Hyogoken nanbu jishin no kyoshindo

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Furumura, T [Hokkaido Univ. of Education, Sapporo (Japan); Koketsu, K [The University of Tokyo, Tokyo (Japan). Earthquake Research Institute

    1996-10-01

    Hyogo-ken Nanbu earthquake with a focus in the Akashi straits has given huge earthquake damages in and around Awaji Island and Kobe City in 1995. It is clear that the basement structure, which is steeply deepened at Kobe City from Rokko Mountains towards the coast, and the focus under this related closely to the local generation of strong ground motion. Generation process of the strong ground motion was discussed using 2D and 3D numerical simulation methods. The 3D pseudospectral method was used for the calculation. Space of 51.2km{times}25.6km{times}25.6km was selected for the calculation. This space was discretized with the lattice interval of 200m. Consequently, it was found that the basement structure with a steeply deepened basement, soft and weak geological structure thickly deposited on the basement, and earthquake faults running under the boundary of base rock and sediments related greatly to the generation of strong ground motion. Numerical simulation can be expected to predict the strong ground motion by shallow earthquakes. 9 refs., 7 figs.

  14. Kamchatka subduction zone, May 2013: the Mw 8.3 deep earthquake, preceding shallow swarm and numerous deep aftershocks

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Špičák, Aleš; Vaněk, Jiří

    2014-01-01

    Roč. 58, č. 1 (2014), s. 76-83 ISSN 0039-3169 Institutional support: RVO:67985530 Keywords : Kamchatka * deep earthquake * earthquake swarm * Wadati-Benioff zone Subject RIV: DC - Siesmology, Volcanology, Earth Structure Impact factor: 0.806, year: 2014

  15. Measurement of the Parameter Kappa, and Reevaluation of Kappa for Small to Moderate Earthquakes at Seismic Stations in the Vicinity of Yucca Mountain, Nevada

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Biasi, Glenn; Anderson, John G

    2007-01-01

    The parameter kappa was defined by Anderson and Hough (1984) to describe the high-frequency spectral roll-off of the strong motion seismic spectrum. In the work of Su et al., (1996) the numerical value of kappa estimated for sites near Yucca Mountain was small (∼20 ms). The estimate obtained from these events has been applied through a rigorous methodology to develop design earthquake spectra with magnitude over 5.0. Smaller values of kappa lead to higher estimated ground motions in the methodology used by the Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) for Yucca Mountain. An increase of 10 ms in kappa could result in a substantial decrease in the high frequency level of the predicted ground motions. Any parameter that plays such a critical role deserves close examination. Here, we study kappa and its associated uncertainties. The data set used by Su et al (1996) consisted of 12 M 2.8 to 4.5 earthquakes recorded at temporary stations deployed after the June 1992 Little Skull Mountain earthquake. The kappa elements of that study were revisited by Anderson and Su (MOL.20071203.0134) and substantially confirmed. One weakness of those studies is the limited data used. Few of these stations were on tuff or on Yucca Mountain itself. A decade of Southern Great Basin Digital Seismic Network (SGBDSN) recording has now yielded a larger body of on-scale, well calibrated digital ground motion records suitable for investigating kappa. We use the SGBDSN data to check some of the original assumptions, improve the statistical confidence of the conclusions, and determine values of kappa for stations on or near Yucca Mountain. The outstanding issues in kappa analysis, as they apply to Yucca Mountain, include: (1) The number itself. The kappa estimate near 20 msec from Su et al. (1996) and Anderson and Su (MOL.20071203.0134) is markedly smaller than is considered typical in California (Silva, 1995). The low kappa value has engineering consequences because when it is applied in

  16. Measurement of the Parameter Kappa, and Reevaluation of Kappa for Small to Moderate Earthquakes at Seismic Stations in the Vicinity of Yucca Mountain, Nevada

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Biasi, Glenn; Anderson, John G

    2007-12-05

    The parameter kappa was defined by Anderson and Hough (1984) to describe the high-frequency spectral roll-off of the strong motion seismic spectrum. In the work of Su et al., (1996) the numerical value of kappa estimated for sites near Yucca Mountain was small (~20 ms). The estimate obtained from these events has been applied through a rigorous methodology to develop design earthquake spectra with magnitude over 5.0. Smaller values of kappa lead to higher estimated ground motions in the methodology used by the Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) for Yucca Mountain. An increase of 10 ms in kappa could result in a substantial decrease in the high frequency level of the predicted ground motions. Any parameter that plays such a critical role deserves close examination. Here, we study kappa and its associated uncertainties. The data set used by Su et al (1996) consisted of 12 M 2.8 to 4.5 earthquakes recorded at temporary stations deployed after the June 1992 Little Skull Mountain earthquake. The kappa elements of that study were revisited by Anderson and Su (MOL.20071203.0134) and substantially confirmed. One weakness of those studies is the limited data used. Few of these stations were on tuff or on Yucca Mountain itself. A decade of Southern Great Basin Digital Seismic Network (SGBDSN) recording has now yielded a larger body of on-scale, well calibrated digital ground motion records suitable for investigating kappa. We use the SGBDSN data to check some of the original assumptions, improve the statistical confidence of the conclusions, and determine values of kappa for stations on or near Yucca Mountain. The outstanding issues in kappa analysis, as they apply to Yucca Mountain, include: 1. The number itself. The kappa estimate near 20 msec from Su et al. (1996) and Anderson and Su (MOL.20071203.0134) is markedly smaller than is considered typical in California (Silva, 1995). The low kappa value has engineering consequences because when it is applied in ground

  17. Structure of unilamellar vesicles: Numerical analysis based on small-angle neutron scattering data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zemlyanaya, E. V.; Kiselev, M. A.; Zbytovska, J.; Almasy, L.; Aswal, V. K.; Strunz, P.; Wartewig, S.; Neubert, R.

    2006-01-01

    The structure of polydispersed populations of unilamellar vesicles is studied by small-angle neutron scattering for three types of lipid systems, namely, single-, two-and four-component vesicular systems. Results of the numerical analysis based on the separated-form-factor model are reported

  18. The numerical simulation study of the dynamic evolutionary processes in an earthquake cycle on the Longmen Shan Fault

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tao, Wei; Shen, Zheng-Kang; Zhang, Yong

    2016-04-01

    The Longmen Shan, located in the conjunction of the eastern margin the Tibet plateau and Sichuan basin, is a typical area for studying the deformation pattern of the Tibet plateau. Following the 2008 Mw 7.9 Wenchuan earthquake (WE) rupturing the Longmen Shan Fault (LSF), a great deal of observations and studies on geology, geophysics, and geodesy have been carried out for this region, with results published successively in recent years. Using the 2D viscoelastic finite element model, introducing the rate-state friction law to the fault, this thesis makes modeling of the earthquake recurrence process and the dynamic evolutionary processes in an earthquake cycle of 10 thousand years. By analyzing the displacement, velocity, stresses, strain energy and strain energy increment fields, this work obtains the following conclusions: (1) The maximum coseismic displacement on the fault is on the surface, and the damage on the hanging wall is much more serious than that on the foot wall of the fault. If the detachment layer is absent, the coseismic displacement would be smaller and the relative displacement between the hanging wall and foot wall would also be smaller. (2) In every stage of the earthquake cycle, the velocities (especially the vertical velocities) on the hanging wall of the fault are larger than that on the food wall, and the values and the distribution patterns of the velocity fields are similar. While in the locking stage prior to the earthquake, the velocities in crust and the relative velocities between hanging wall and foot wall decrease. For the model without the detachment layer, the velocities in crust in the post-seismic stage is much larger than those in other stages. (3) The maximum principle stress and the maximum shear stress concentrate around the joint of the fault and detachment layer, therefore the earthquake would nucleate and start here. (4) The strain density distribution patterns in stages of the earthquake cycle are similar. There are two

  19. A study of small explosions and earthquakes during 1961--1989 near the Semipalatinsk Test Site, Kazakhstan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khalturin, V.I.; Rautian, T.G.; Richards, P.G.; Columbia Univ., New York, NY

    1994-03-01

    Several Russian sources have stated that 343 underground nuclear explosions were conducted during 1961--1989 at the Semipalatinsk Test Site. However, only 282 of them appear to have been described, in the openly available technical literature, with well-determined coordinates; and only 272 have both good locations and magnitudes. The authors have used regional data from 52 stations to study 65 seismic sources initially thought to be in or near the Semipalatinsk region, additional to the 272 underground nuclear explosions with known locations and magnitudes. Of these 65 events, the authors believe 8 are not explosions on the test site, namely: two earthquakes close to the test site; three earthquakes or chemical explosions 100--300 km from the test site; and three events at greater distances from Semipalatinsk. Of the remaining 57 events: 10 were known to be underground nuclear explosions with known locations and the authors have supplied magnitudes where none were previously available; one was a chemical explosion at Degelen; they believe 21 were underground nuclear explosions; 13 were chemical explosions at Balapan; 8 were chemical explosions elsewhere on the test site; three were either nuclear or chemical explosions; and one was either a chemical explosion or a cavity collapse. The largest magnitude of their 44 possible underground nuclear explosions is around 5 (February 4, 1965, obscured at many teleseismic stations by a large Aleutian earthquake). Others lie in the magnitude range 3.5--4.5, and clearly most have sub kiloton yields. Their data set of small events is important for purposes of evaluating the detection capability of teleseismic arrays, and the detection and identification capability of regional stations

  20. On the dependency of the decay of ground motion peak values with distance for small and large earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dujardin, Alain; Courboulex, Françoise; Causse, Matthieu; Traversa, Paola; Monfret, Tony

    2013-04-01

    Ground motion decay with distance presents a clear magnitude dependence, PGA values of small events decreasing faster than those of larger events. This observation is now widely accepted and often taken into account in recent ground motion prediction equations (Anderson 2005, Akkar & Bommer 2010). The aim of this study is to investigate the origin of this dependence, which has not been clearly identified yet. Two main hypotheses are considered. On one hand the difference of ground motion decay is related to an attenuation effect, on the other hand the difference is related to an effect of extended fault (Anderson 2000). To study the role of attenuation, we realized synthetic tests using the stochastic simulation program SMSIM from Boore (2005). We build a set of simulations from several magnitudes and epicentral distances, and observe that the decay in PGA values is strongly dependent on the spectral shape of the Fourier spectra, which in turn strongly depends on the attenuation factor (Q(f) or kappa). We found that, for a point source approximation and an infinite value of Q (no attenuation) there is no difference between small and large events and that this difference increases when Q decreases. Theses results show that the influence of attenuation on spectral shape is different for earthquakes of different magnitude. In fact the influence of attenuation, which is more important at higher frequency, is larger for small earthquakes, whose Fourier acceleration spectrum has predominantly higher frequencies. We then study the effect of extended source using complete waveform simulations in a 1D model. We find that when the duration of the source time function increases, there is a larger probability to obtain large PGA values at equivalent distances. This effect could also play an important role in the PGA decay with magnitude and distance. Finally we compare these results with real datasets from the Japanese accelerometric network KIK-net.

  1. Upper crustal stress and seismotectonics of the Garhwal Himalaya using small-to-moderate earthquakes: Implications to the local structures and free fluids

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prasath, R. Arun; Paul, Ajay; Singh, Sandeep

    2017-03-01

    The work presents new focal-mechanism data of small-to-moderate (3.0 ⩾ ML ⩽ 5.0) upper crustal earthquakes for the Garhwal Himalaya from a local seismic network installed in July 2007. Majority of the epicenters of these earthquakes are located close to the Main Central Thrust (MCT) zone. We retrieved Moment Tensor (MT) solutions of 26 earthquakes by waveform inversion. The MT results and 11 small-to-moderate earthquakes from the published records are used for stress inversions. The MT solutions reveal dominatingly thrust mechanisms with few strike slip earthquakes near Chamoli. The seismic cross sections illustrate that, these earthquakes are located around the Mid-Crustal-Ramp (MCR) in the detachment. The optimally oriented faults from stress inversions suggest that, the seismogenic fault in this region is similar to a fault plane having dip angle between 12 and 25 degrees, which is compatible with the dip angle of the MCR (∼16°) in this region. P-axes and the maximum horizontal compressive stress are NE-SW oriented; the direction of the relative motion of Indian plate with respect to the Eurasian plate. The Friction Coefficient estimated from stress inversions show that the Chamoli region having low friction in comparison to the overall values. The free fluids trapped beneath the detachment are penetrating into the local faults, hence, decreasing the frictional strength and altering the prevailing stress conditions of the surroundings. The present study reveals that the MCR structure is seismogenically active and producing the small-moderate earthquakes in the region, while the MCT is probably dormant at present.

  2. Numerical tsunami simulations in the western Pacific Ocean and East China Sea from hypothetical M 9 earthquakes along the Nankai trough

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harada, Tomoya; Satake, Kenji; Furumura, Takashi

    2017-04-01

    We carried out tsunami numerical simulations in the western Pacific Ocean and East China Sea in order to examine the behavior of massive tsunami outside Japan from the hypothetical M 9 tsunami source models along the Nankai Trough proposed by the Cabinet Office of Japanese government (2012). The distribution of MTHs (maximum tsunami heights for 24 h after the earthquakes) on the east coast of China, the east coast of the Philippine Islands, and north coast of the New Guinea Island show peaks with approximately 1.0-1.7 m,4.0-7.0 m,4.0-5.0 m, respectively. They are significantly higher than that from the 1707 Ho'ei earthquake (M 8.7), the largest earthquake along the Nankai trough in recent Japanese history. Moreover, the MTH distributions vary with the location of the huge slip(s) in the tsunami source models although the three coasts are far from the Nankai trough. Huge slip(s) in the Nankai segment mainly contributes to the MTHs, while huge slip(s) or splay faulting in the Tokai segment hardly affects the MTHs. The tsunami source model was developed for responding to the unexpected occurrence of the 2011 Tohoku Earthquake, with 11 models along the Nanakai trough, and simulated MTHs along the Pacific coasts of the western Japan from these models exceed 10 m, with a maximum height of 34.4 m. Tsunami propagation was computed by the finite-difference method of the non-liner long-wave equations with the Corioli's force and bottom friction (Satake, 1995) in the area of 115-155 ° E and 8° S-40° N. Because water depth of the East China Sea is shallower than 200 m, the tsunami propagation is likely to be affected by the ocean bottom fiction. The 30 arc-seconds gridded bathymetry data provided by the General Bathymetric Chart of the Oceans (GEBCO-2014) are used. For long propagation of tsunami we simulated tsunamis for 24 hours after the earthquakes. This study was supported by the"New disaster mitigation research project on Mega thrust earthquakes around Nankai

  3. Phase transitions and dynamic entropy in small two-dimensional systems: Experiment and numerical simulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Koss, K. G.; Petrov, O. F.; Myasnikov, M. I., E-mail: miasnikovmi@mail.ru; Statsenko, K. B.; Vasiliev, M. M. [Russian Academy of Sciences, Joint Institute for High Temperatures (Russian Federation)

    2016-07-15

    The results of experimental and numerical analysis are presented for phase transitions in strongly nonequilibrium small systems of strongly interacting Brownian particles. The dynamic entropy method is applied to analysis of the state of these systems. Experiments are carried out with kinetic heating of the structures of micron-size particles in a laboratory rf discharge plasma. Three phase states of these small systems are observed: crystalline, liquid, and transient. The mechanism of phase transitions in cluster structures of strongly interacting particles is described.

  4. Experimental and numerical study of the flow field around a small car

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dobrev Ivan

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents the aerodynamic study of a small car, which participated in Shell Ecomarathon Europe competition in the Urban Concept Hydrogen class. The goal is to understand the flow field around the vehicle. First, the flow is studied numerically using computational aerodynamics. The numerical simulation is carried out by means of CFD Fluent in order to obtain the drag force experienced by the vehicle and also the flow field. Then the flow field around the car is studied in a wind tunnel by means of particle image velocimetry (PIV. The comparison of the flow fields obtained numerically and experimentally shows good correspondence. The obtained results are very helpful for future car development and permit to improve the drag and to obtain a good stability.

  5. On the Numerical Modeling of Fluid Instabilities in the Small-Amplitude Limit

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zalesak, Steven; Schmitt, A. J.; Velikovich, A. L.

    2008-11-01

    The problem we wish to address is that of accurately modeling the evolution of small-amplitude perturbations to a time- dependent flow, where the unperturbed flow itself exhibits large-amplitude temporal and spatial variations. In particular, we wish to accurately model the evolution of small-amplitude perturbations to an imploding ICF pellet, which is subject to both Richtmyer-Meshkov and Rayleigh-Taylor instabilities. This modeling is difficult despite the expected linear evolution of the perturbations themselves, because these perturbations are embedded in a highly nonlinear, strongly- shocked, and highly complex flow field which in and of itself stresses numerical computation capabilities, and whose simulation often employs numerical techniques which were not designed with the proper treatment of small-amplitude perturbations in mind. We will review some of the techniques that we have found to be of use toward this end, including the imposition of a ``differentiability condition'' on the component numerical algorithms of the codes which implement such modeling, the appropriate representation of interfaces in an Eulerian hydrodynamics context, and the role of exact energy conservation.

  6. A Jurassic Shock-Aftershock Earthquake Sequence Recorded by Small Clastic Pipes and Dikes within Dune Cross-Strata, Zion National Park, Utah

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loope, D. B.; Zlotnik, V. A.; Kettler, R. M.; Pederson, D. T.

    2012-12-01

    dune lee slope through a pipe, the erupted sand dried and was buried by climbing wind-ripple strata as the large dune continued to advance downwind. The mapped cluster recording eight distinct seismic events lies within thin-laminated sediment that was deposited by wind ripples during 1 m (~ 1 year) of southeastward dune migration. We conclude that the small pipes and dikes of our study sites are products of numerous >MM 5 earthquakes, some of which recurred at intervals of less than 2 months. We interpret one small cluster of pipes and dikes with well-defined upward terminations as a distinct shock-aftershock sequence. Because the largest modern earthquakes can produce surface liquefaction only up to about 175 km from their epicenters, the Jurassic epicenters must have been well within that distance. The tendency of modern plate boundaries to produce high-frequency aftershocks suggests that the epicenter for this Jurassic sequence lay to the southwest, within the plate boundary zone (not within continental rocks to the east). As eolian dunes steadily migrate over interdune surfaces underlain by water-saturated dune cross-strata, the thin, distinct laminae produced by the wind ripples that occupy dune toes can faithfully record high-frequency seismic events.

  7. Numerical Integration of a Class of Singularly Perturbed Delay Differential Equations with Small Shift

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gemechis File

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available We have presented a numerical integration method to solve a class of singularly perturbed delay differential equations with small shift. First, we have replaced the second-order singularly perturbed delay differential equation by an asymptotically equivalent first-order delay differential equation. Then, Simpson’s rule and linear interpolation are employed to get the three-term recurrence relation which is solved easily by discrete invariant imbedding algorithm. The method is demonstrated by implementing it on several linear and nonlinear model examples by taking various values for the delay parameter and the perturbation parameter .

  8. Earthquake Triggering in the September 2017 Mexican Earthquake Sequence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fielding, E. J.; Gombert, B.; Duputel, Z.; Huang, M. H.; Liang, C.; Bekaert, D. P.; Moore, A. W.; Liu, Z.; Ampuero, J. P.

    2017-12-01

    Southern Mexico was struck by four earthquakes with Mw > 6 and numerous smaller earthquakes in September 2017, starting with the 8 September Mw 8.2 Tehuantepec earthquake beneath the Gulf of Tehuantepec offshore Chiapas and Oaxaca. We study whether this M8.2 earthquake triggered the three subsequent large M>6 quakes in southern Mexico to improve understanding of earthquake interactions and time-dependent risk. All four large earthquakes were extensional despite the the subduction of the Cocos plate. The traditional definition of aftershocks: likely an aftershock if it occurs within two rupture lengths of the main shock soon afterwards. Two Mw 6.1 earthquakes, one half an hour after the M8.2 beneath the Tehuantepec gulf and one on 23 September near Ixtepec in Oaxaca, both fit as traditional aftershocks, within 200 km of the main rupture. The 19 September Mw 7.1 Puebla earthquake was 600 km away from the M8.2 shock, outside the standard aftershock zone. Geodetic measurements from interferometric analysis of synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) and time-series analysis of GPS station data constrain finite fault total slip models for the M8.2, M7.1, and M6.1 Ixtepec earthquakes. The early M6.1 aftershock was too close in time and space to the M8.2 to measure with InSAR or GPS. We analyzed InSAR data from Copernicus Sentinel-1A and -1B satellites and JAXA ALOS-2 satellite. Our preliminary geodetic slip model for the M8.2 quake shows significant slip extended > 150 km NW from the hypocenter, longer than slip in the v1 finite-fault model (FFM) from teleseismic waveforms posted by G. Hayes at USGS NEIC. Our slip model for the M7.1 earthquake is similar to the v2 NEIC FFM. Interferograms for the M6.1 Ixtepec quake confirm the shallow depth in the upper-plate crust and show centroid is about 30 km SW of the NEIC epicenter, a significant NEIC location bias, but consistent with cluster relocations (E. Bergman, pers. comm.) and with Mexican SSN location. Coulomb static stress

  9. Numerical

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Boumaza

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Transient convection heat transfer is of fundamental interest in many industrial and environmental situations, as well as in electronic devices and security of energy systems. Transient fluid flow problems are among the more difficult to analyze and yet are very often encountered in modern day technology. The main objective of this research project is to carry out a theoretical and numerical analysis of transient convective heat transfer in vertical flows, when the thermal field is due to different kinds of variation, in time and space of some boundary conditions, such as wall temperature or wall heat flux. This is achieved by the development of a mathematical model and its resolution by suitable numerical methods, as well as performing various sensitivity analyses. These objectives are achieved through a theoretical investigation of the effects of wall and fluid axial conduction, physical properties and heat capacity of the pipe wall on the transient downward mixed convection in a circular duct experiencing a sudden change in the applied heat flux on the outside surface of a central zone.

  10. Experimental and numerical analysis of a small-scale turbojet engine

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Badami, M.; Nuccio, P.; Signoretto, A.

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: • A theoretical and experimental activity was performed on a small scale turbojet. • The small turbojet shows the typical CO, UHC and NO x trends of aero-engines emissions. • The comparison between the CFD and experimental results show a quite good agreement. • The CFD analysis permitted to interpret some unexpected behaviour of thermodynamic parameters. • This essential knowledge of the research will be applied in a subsequent research on the use of alternative fuels. - Abstract: Since experimental activities on real aeronautical turbines can be very complex and expensive, the use of parts of real engines or small-size turbojets can be very useful for research activities. The present paper describes the results of an experimental and numerical activity that was conducted on a research turbojet engine, with a nominal thrust of 80 N at 80,000 rpm. The aim of the research was to obtain detailed information on the thermodynamic cycle and performance of the engine in order to use it in subsequent activities on the benefits of using alternative fuels in gas turbine engines. A specific characterization of each component of the engine has been performed by means of thermodynamics and CFD analyses and several measured parameters have been critically analyzed and compared with theoretical ones, with the purpose of increasing the knowledge of these kinds of small turbo-engines

  11. Numerical simulation of small-scale mixing processes in the upper ocean and atmospheric boundary layer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Druzhinin, O; Troitskaya, Yu; Zilitinkevich, S

    2016-01-01

    The processes of turbulent mixing and momentum and heat exchange occur in the upper ocean at depths up to several dozens of meters and in the atmospheric boundary layer within interval of millimeters to dozens of meters and can not be resolved by known large- scale climate models. Thus small-scale processes need to be parameterized with respect to large scale fields. This parameterization involves the so-called bulk coefficients which relate turbulent fluxes with large-scale fields gradients. The bulk coefficients are dependent on the properties of the small-scale mixing processes which are affected by the upper-ocean stratification and characteristics of surface and internal waves. These dependencies are not well understood at present and need to be clarified. We employ Direct Numerical Simulation (DNS) as a research tool which resolves all relevant flow scales and does not require closure assumptions typical of Large-Eddy and Reynolds Averaged Navier-Stokes simulations (LES and RANS). Thus DNS provides a solid ground for correct parameterization of small-scale mixing processes and also can be used for improving LES and RANS closure models. In particular, we discuss the problems of the interaction between small-scale turbulence and internal gravity waves propagating in the pycnocline in the upper ocean as well as the impact of surface waves on the properties of atmospheric boundary layer over wavy water surface. (paper)

  12. Numerical simulation for the magnetic force distribution in electromagnetic forming of small size flat sheet

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Xiaowei; Wang, Wenping; Wan, Min

    2013-12-01

    It is essential to calculate magnetic force in the process of studying electromagnetic flat sheet forming. Calculating magnetic force is the basis of analyzing the sheet deformation and optimizing technical parameters. Magnetic force distribution on the sheet can be obtained by numerical simulation of electromagnetic field. In contrast to other computing methods, the method of numerical simulation has some significant advantages, such as higher calculation accuracy, easier using and other advantages. In this paper, in order to study of magnetic force distribution on the small size flat sheet in electromagnetic forming when flat round spiral coil, flat rectangular spiral coil and uniform pressure coil are adopted, the 3D finite element models are established by software ANSYS/EMAG. The magnetic force distribution on the sheet are analyzed when the plane geometries of sheet are equal or less than the coil geometries under fixed discharge impulse. The results showed that when the physical dimensions of sheet are less than the corresponding dimensions of the coil, the variation of induced current channel width on the sheet will cause induced current crowding effect that seriously influence the magnetic force distribution, and the degree of inhomogeneity of magnetic force distribution is increase nearly linearly with the variation of induced current channel width; the small size uniform pressure coil will produce approximately uniform magnetic force distribution on the sheet, but the coil is easy to early failure; the desirable magnetic force distribution can be achieved when the unilateral placed flat rectangular spiral coil is adopted, and this program can be take as preferred one, because the longevity of flat rectangular spiral coil is longer than the working life of small size uniform pressure coil.

  13. Numerical comparison of improved methods of testing in contingency tables with small frequencies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sugiura, Nariaki; Otake, Masanori

    1968-11-14

    The significance levels of various tests for a general c x k contingency table are usually given by large sample theory. But they are not accurate for the one having small frequencies. In this paper, a numerical evaluation was made to determine how good the approximation of significance level is for various improved tests that have been developed by Nass, Yoshimura, Gart, etc. for c x k contingency table with small frequencies in some of cells. For this purpose we compared the significance levels of the various approximate methods (i) with those of one-sided tail defined in terms of exact probabilities for given marginals in 2 x 2 table; (ii) with those of exact probabilities accumulated in the order of magnitude of Chi/sup 2/ statistic or likelihood ratio (=LR) statistic in 2 x 3 table mentioned by Yates. In 2 x 2 table it is well known that Yates' correction gives satisfactory result for small cell frequencies and the other methods that we have not referred here, can be considered if we devote our attention only to 2 x 2 or 2 x k table. But we are mainly interested in comparing the methods that are applicable to a general c x k table. It appears that such a comparison for the various improved methods in the same example has not been made explicitly, even though these tests are frequently used in biological and medical research. 9 references, 6 figures, 6 tables.

  14. The t-J model at small t/j: Numerical, perturbative, and supersymmetric results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barnes, T.; Tennessee Univ., Knoxville, TN

    1991-02-01

    We discuss some recent results for one- and two-hole states in the t-J model at small t/J. These include numerical results (bandwidth determinations and accurate t/J values for 4 x 4 lattice one-hole ground-state level crossings), hopping-parameter perturbation theory (which gives the small-t/J one-hole bandwidth in terms of the static-vacancy ground state), and results at the supersymmetric point t/J = 1/2 (exact results for energies and bandwidths.) The perturbative results leads us to a new conjecture regarding the staggered magnetization of higher-spin states in the two-dimensional Heisenberg model. We also discuss extrapolation of small-t/J results to high-T c parameter values; in the two-hole ground states we find (t/J) λ behavior in the rms hole-hole separation, and an extrapolation to t/J = 3 gives a bulk-limit rms hole-hole separation of ∼ 7 angstrom. 18 refs., 6 figs

  15. Numerical modeling study of the momentum deposition of small amplitude gravity waves in the thermosphere

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Liu, X. [Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing (China). State Key Lab. of Space Weather; Henan Normal Univ., Xinxiang (China). College of Mathematics and Information Science; Xu, J. [Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing (China). State Key Lab. of Space Weather; Yue, J. [National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States). High Altitude Observatory; Hampton Univ., VA (United States). Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences; Vadas, S.L. [North West Research Associates, Inc., Boulder, CO (United States)

    2013-03-01

    We study the momentum deposition in the thermosphere from the dissipation of small amplitude gravity waves (GWs) within a wave packet using a fully nonlinear two-dimensional compressible numerical model. The model solves the nonlinear propagation and dissipation of a GW packet from the stratosphere into the thermosphere with realistic molecular viscosity and thermal diffusivity for various Prandtl numbers. The numerical simulations are performed for GW packets with initial vertical wavelengths ({lambda}{sub z}) ranging from 5 to 50 km. We show that {lambda}{sub z} decreases in time as a GW packet dissipates in the thermosphere, in agreement with the ray trace results of Vadas and Fritts (2005) (VF05). We also find good agreement for the peak height of the momentum flux (z{sub diss}) between our simulations and VF05 for GWs with initial {lambda}{sub z} {<=} 2{pi}H in an isothermal, windless background, where H is the density scale height.We also confirm that z{sub diss} increases with increasing Prandtl number. We include eddy diffusion in the model, and find that the momentum deposition occurs at lower altitudes and has two separate peaks for GW packets with small initial {lambda}{sub z}. We also simulate GW packets in a non-isothermal atmosphere. The net {lambda}{sub z} profile is a competition between its decrease from viscosity and its increase from the increasing background temperature. We find that the wave packet disperses more in the non-isothermal atmosphere, and causes changes to the momentum flux and {lambda}{sub z} spectra at both early and late times for GW packets with initial {lambda}{sub z} {>=} 10 km. These effects are caused by the increase in T in the thermosphere, and the decrease in T near the mesopause. (orig.)

  16. Moment magnitude, local magnitude and corner frequency of small earthquakes nucleating along a low angle normal fault in the Upper Tiber valley (Italy)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Munafo, I.; Malagnini, L.; Chiaraluce, L.; Valoroso, L.

    2015-12-01

    The relation between moment magnitude (MW) and local magnitude (ML) is still a debated issue (Bath, 1966, 1981; Ristau et al., 2003, 2005). Theoretical considerations and empirical observations show that, in the magnitude range between 3 and 5, MW and ML scale 1∶1. Whilst for smaller magnitudes this 1∶1 scaling breaks down (Bethmann et al. 2011). For accomplishing this task we analyzed the source parameters of about 1500 (30.000 waveforms) well-located small earthquakes occurred in the Upper Tiber Valley (Northern Apennines) in the range of -1.5≤ML≤3.8. In between these earthquakes there are 300 events repeatedly rupturing the same fault patch generally twice within a short time interval (less than 24 hours; Chiaraluce et al., 2007). We use high-resolution short period and broadband recordings acquired between 2010 and 2014 by 50 permanent seismic stations deployed to monitor the activity of a regional low angle normal fault (named Alto Tiberina fault, ATF) in the framework of The Alto Tiberina Near Fault Observatory project (TABOO; Chiaraluce et al., 2014). For this study the direct determination of MW for small earthquakes is essential but unfortunately the computation of MW for small earthquakes (MW < 3) is not a routine procedure in seismology. We apply the contributions of source, site, and crustal attenuation computed for this area in order to obtain precise spectral corrections to be used in the calculation of small earthquakes spectral plateaus. The aim of this analysis is to achieve moment magnitudes of small events through a procedure that uses our previously calibrated crustal attenuation parameters (geometrical spreading g(r), quality factor Q(f), and the residual parameter k) to correct for path effects. We determine the MW-ML relationships in two selected fault zones (on-fault and fault-hanging-wall) of the ATF by an orthogonal regression analysis providing a semi-automatic and robust procedure for moment magnitude determination within a

  17. Improving the seismic small-scale modelling by comparison with numerical methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pageot, Damien; Leparoux, Donatienne; Le Feuvre, Mathieu; Durand, Olivier; Côte, Philippe; Capdeville, Yann

    2017-10-01

    The potential of experimental seismic modelling at reduced scale provides an intermediate step between numerical tests and geophysical campaigns on field sites. Recent technologies such as laser interferometers offer the opportunity to get data without any coupling effects. This kind of device is used in the Mesures Ultrasonores Sans Contact (MUSC) measurement bench for which an automated support system makes possible to generate multisource and multireceivers seismic data at laboratory scale. Experimental seismic modelling would become a great tool providing a value-added stage in the imaging process validation if (1) the experimental measurement chain is perfectly mastered, and thus if the experimental data are perfectly reproducible with a numerical tool, as well as if (2) the effective source is reproducible along the measurement setup. These aspects for a quantitative validation concerning devices with piezoelectrical sources and a laser interferometer have not been yet quantitatively studied in published studies. Thus, as a new stage for the experimental modelling approach, these two key issues are tackled in the proposed paper in order to precisely define the quality of the experimental small-scale data provided by the bench MUSC, which are available in the scientific community. These two steps of quantitative validation are dealt apart any imaging techniques in order to offer the opportunity to geophysicists who want to use such data (delivered as free data) of precisely knowing their quality before testing any imaging technique. First, in order to overcome the 2-D-3-D correction usually done in seismic processing when comparing 2-D numerical data with 3-D experimental measurement, we quantitatively refined the comparison between numerical and experimental data by generating accurate experimental line sources, avoiding the necessity of geometrical spreading correction for 3-D point-source data. The comparison with 2-D and 3-D numerical modelling is based on

  18. Clustered and transient earthquake sequences in mid-continents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, M.; Stein, S. A.; Wang, H.; Luo, G.

    2012-12-01

    Earthquakes result from sudden release of strain energy on faults. On plate boundary faults, strain energy is constantly accumulating from steady and relatively rapid relative plate motion, so large earthquakes continue to occur so long as motion continues on the boundary. In contrast, such steady accumulation of stain energy does not occur on faults in mid-continents, because the far-field tectonic loading is not steadily distributed between faults, and because stress perturbations from complex fault interactions and other stress triggers can be significant relative to the slow tectonic stressing. Consequently, mid-continental earthquakes are often temporally clustered and transient, and spatially migrating. This behavior is well illustrated by large earthquakes in North China in the past two millennia, during which no single large earthquakes repeated on the same fault segments, but moment release between large fault systems was complementary. Slow tectonic loading in mid-continents also causes long aftershock sequences. We show that the recent small earthquakes in the Tangshan region of North China are aftershocks of the 1976 Tangshan earthquake (M 7.5), rather than indicators of a new phase of seismic activity in North China, as many fear. Understanding the transient behavior of mid-continental earthquakes has important implications for assessing earthquake hazards. The sequence of large earthquakes in the New Madrid Seismic Zone (NMSZ) in central US, which includes a cluster of M~7 events in 1811-1812 and perhaps a few similar ones in the past millennium, is likely a transient process, releasing previously accumulated elastic strain on recently activated faults. If so, this earthquake sequence will eventually end. Using simple analysis and numerical modeling, we show that the large NMSZ earthquakes may be ending now or in the near future.

  19. Numerical modelling to assess maintenance strategy management options for a small tidal inlet

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shaeri, Saeed; Tomlinson, Rodger; Etemad-Shahidi, Amir; Strauss, Darrell

    2017-03-01

    Small tidal inlets are found to be more sensitive to anthropogenic alteration than their larger counterparts. Such alterations, although typically supported by technical design reports, sometimes require amendments or modification. One of the most suitable tools to conduct the necessary studies in this regard is numerical modelling, since the behaviour of the inlet system in response to proposed remedial actions, can easily be identified. In this paper, various alternative proposals are investigated to determine the most practical and viable option to mitigate the need for ongoing maintenance at a typical small, jettied tidal inlet. The main tool to investigate the alternatives is the hydro-sedimentological modelling of the inlet system, which was performed using the Delft3D software package. The proposed alternative entrance modifications were based upon structural alterations of the inlet system (such as a jetty extension or submerged weir) and non-structural scenarios (such as a change of the time of the dredging campaign or the deposition location of the dredged material). It was concluded that whilst a detailed study is inevitable in order to achieve a comprehensive design plan, based upon the results of this study the construction of a submerged weir at the entrance channel can satisfy the needs of most of the stakeholders, with justifiable costs over a longer period.

  20. Numerical Research on Flow Characteristics around a Hydraulic Turbine Runner at Small Opening of Cylindrical Valve

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhenwei Mo

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available We use the continuity equation and the Reynolds averaged Navier-Stokes equations to study the flow-pattern characteristics around a turbine runner for the small-opening cylindrical valve of a hydraulic turbine. For closure, we adopt the renormalization-group k-ε two-equation turbulence model and use the computational fluid dynamics (CFD software FLUENT to numerically simulate the three-dimensional unsteady turbulent flow through the entire passage of the hydraulic turbine. The results show that a low-pressure zone develops around the runner blades when the cylindrical valve is closed in a small opening; cavitation occurs at the blades, and a vortex appears at the outlet of the runner. As the cylindrical valve is gradually closed, the flow velocity over the runner area increases, and the pressure gradient becomes more significant as the discharge decreases. In addition, the fluid flow velocity is relatively high between the lower end of the cylindrical valve and the base, so that a high-velocity jet is easily induced. The calculation and analysis provide a theoretical basis for improving the performance of cylindrical-valve operating systems.

  1. Ground Deformation and Sources geometry of the 2016 Central Italy Earthquake Sequence Investigated through Analytical and Numerical Modeling of DInSAR Measurements and Structural-Geological Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Solaro, G.; Bonano, M.; Boncio, P.; Brozzetti, F.; Castaldo, R.; Casu, F.; Cirillo, D.; Cheloni, D.; De Luca, C.; De Nardis, R.; De Novellis, V.; Ferrarini, F.; Lanari, R.; Lavecchia, G.; Manunta, M.; Manzo, M.; Pepe, A.; Pepe, S.; Tizzani, P.; Zinno, I.

    2017-12-01

    The 2016 Central Italy seismic sequence started on 24th August with a MW 6.1 event, where the intra-Apennine WSW-dipping Vettore-Gorzano extensional fault system released a destructive earthquake, causing 300 casualties and extensive damage to the town of Amatrice and surroundings. We generated several interferograms by using ALOS and Sentinel 1-A and B constellation data acquired on both ascending and descending orbits to show that most displacement is characterized by two main subsiding lobes of about 20 cm on the fault hanging-wall. By inverting the generated interferograms, following the Okada analytical approach, the modelling results account for two sources related to main shock and more energetic aftershock. Through Finite Element numerical modelling that jointly exploits DInSAR deformation measurements and structural-geological data, we reconstruct the 3D source of the Amatrice 2016 normal fault earthquake which well fit the main shock. The inversion shows that the co-seismic displacement area was partitioned on two distinct en echelon fault planes, which at the main event hypocentral depth (8 km) merge in one single WSW-dipping surface. Slip peaks were higher along the southern half of the Vettore fault, lower along the northern half of Gorzano fault and null in the relay zone between the two faults; field evidence of co-seismic surface rupture are coherent with the reconstructed scenario. The following seismic sequence was characterized by numerous aftershocks located southeast and northwest of the epicenter which decreased in frequency and magnitude until the end of October, when a MW 5.9 event occurred on 26th October about 25 km to the NW of the previous mainshock. Then, on 30th October, a third large event of magnitude MW 6.5 nucleated below the town of Norcia, striking the area between the two preceding events and filling the gap between the previous ruptures. Also in this case, we exploit a large dataset of DInSAR and GPS measurements to investigate

  2. The Design of a Templated C++ Small Vector Class for Numerical Computing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moran, Patrick J.

    2000-01-01

    We describe the design and implementation of a templated C++ class for vectors. The vector class is templated both for vector length and vector component type; the vector length is fixed at template instantiation time. The vector implementation is such that for a vector of N components of type T, the total number of bytes required by the vector is equal to N * size of (T), where size of is the built-in C operator. The property of having a size no bigger than that required by the components themselves is key in many numerical computing applications, where one may allocate very large arrays of small, fixed-length vectors. In addition to the design trade-offs motivating our fixed-length vector design choice, we review some of the C++ template features essential to an efficient, succinct implementation. In particular, we highlight some of the standard C++ features, such as partial template specialization, that are not supported by all compilers currently. This report provides an inventory listing the relevant support currently provided by some key compilers, as well as test code one can use to verify compiler capabilities.

  3. Historic Eastern Canadian earthquakes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Asmis, G.J.K.; Atchinson, R.J.

    1981-01-01

    Nuclear power plants licensed in Canada have been designed to resist earthquakes: not all plants, however, have been explicitly designed to the same level of earthquake induced forces. Understanding the nature of strong ground motion near the source of the earthquake is still very tentative. This paper reviews historical and scientific accounts of the three strongest earthquakes - St. Lawrence (1925), Temiskaming (1935), Cornwall (1944) - that have occurred in Canada in 'modern' times, field studies of near-field strong ground motion records and their resultant damage or non-damage to industrial facilities, and numerical modelling of earthquake sources and resultant wave propagation to produce accelerograms consistent with the above historical record and field studies. It is concluded that for future construction of NPP's near-field strong motion must be explicitly considered in design

  4. Calibration of numerical models for small debris flows in Yosemite Valley, California, USA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Bertolo

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available This study compares documented debris flow runout distances with numerical simulations in the Yosemite Valley of California, USA, where about 15% of historical events of slope instability can be classified as debris flows and debris slides (Wieczorek and Snyder, 2004. To model debris flows in the Yosemite Valley, we selected six streams with evidence of historical debris flows; three of the debris flow deposits have single channels, and the other three split their pattern in the fan area into two or more channels. From field observations all of the debris flows involved coarse material, with only very small clay content. We applied the one dimensional DAN (Dynamic ANalysis model (Hungr, 1995 and the two-dimensional FLO-2D model (O'Brien et al., 1993 to predict and compare the runout distance and the velocity of the debris flows observed in the study area. As a first step, we calibrated the parameters for the two softwares through the back analysis of three debris- flows channels using a trial-and-error procedure starting with values suggested in the literature. In the second step we applied the selected values to the other channels, in order to evaluate their predictive capabilities. After parameter calibration using three debris flows we obtained results similar to field observations We also obtained a good agreement between the two models for velocities. Both models are strongly influenced by topography: we used the 30 m cell size DTM available for the study area, that is probably not accurate enough for a highly detailed analysis, but it can be sufficient for a first screening.

  5. Deeper penetration of large earthquakes on seismically quiescent faults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Junle; Lapusta, Nadia

    2016-06-10

    Why many major strike-slip faults known to have had large earthquakes are silent in the interseismic period is a long-standing enigma. One would expect small earthquakes to occur at least at the bottom of the seismogenic zone, where deeper aseismic deformation concentrates loading. We suggest that the absence of such concentrated microseismicity indicates deep rupture past the seismogenic zone in previous large earthquakes. We support this conclusion with numerical simulations of fault behavior and observations of recent major events. Our modeling implies that the 1857 Fort Tejon earthquake on the San Andreas Fault in Southern California penetrated below the seismogenic zone by at least 3 to 5 kilometers. Our findings suggest that such deeper ruptures may occur on other major fault segments, potentially increasing the associated seismic hazard. Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

  6. Post-earthquake recovery in peripheral areas: the paradox of small municipalities’ reconstruction process in Abruzzo (Italy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Grazia Di Giovanni

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available In 2009, Abruzzo Region was hit by a severe earthquake, which damaged the city of L’Aquila and other 56 minor municipalities already affected by trends of demographic and economic decline at the time of the disaster. This contribution focuses on the mid-term reconstruction of this “Seismic Crater” interpreted as a peculiar case in the scenario of Italian “inner areas”. The “National Strategy for Inner Areas” (SNAI was launched by the Italian Government in 2014 with the purpose of enhancing local development in peripheral fragile municipalities, distant from major service hubs. A large majority of the Crater is included in the list of inner areas. Special post-earthquake legislation and SNAI share multiple goals, especially related to supporting local revitalization. L’Aquila’s territory represents an “anomaly” in the milieu of inner areas: the disaster worsened pre-existing conditions of marginalisation, but post-earthquake reconstruction and related funds offered uncommon resources to shape transformative patterns of development, cooperation and innovation.Using a descriptive approach and focusing on purposes and contents of the Reconstruction Plans, the study questions the ongoing reconstruction process as an occasion to foster long-term socio-economic recovery, urban renewal, and innovative inter-municipal governance besides the rebuilding of urban fabrics in the light of SNAI.

  7. Generalized Free-Surface Effect and Random Vibration Theory: a new tool for computing moment magnitudes of small earthquakes using borehole data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malagnini, Luca; Dreger, Douglas S.

    2016-07-01

    Although optimal, computing the moment tensor solution is not always a viable option for the calculation of the size of an earthquake, especially for small events (say, below Mw 2.0). Here we show an alternative approach to the calculation of the moment-rate spectra of small earthquakes, and thus of their scalar moments, that uses a network-based calibration of crustal wave propagation. The method works best when applied to a relatively small crustal volume containing both the seismic sources and the recording sites. In this study we present the calibration of the crustal volume monitored by the High-Resolution Seismic Network (HRSN), along the San Andreas Fault (SAF) at Parkfield. After the quantification of the attenuation parameters within the crustal volume under investigation, we proceed to the spectral correction of the observed Fourier amplitude spectra for the 100 largest events in our data set. Multiple estimates of seismic moment for the all events (1811 events total) are obtained by calculating the ratio of rms-averaged spectral quantities based on the peak values of the ground velocity in the time domain, as they are observed in narrowband-filtered time-series. The mathematical operations allowing the described spectral ratios are obtained from Random Vibration Theory (RVT). Due to the optimal conditions of the HRSN, in terms of signal-to-noise ratios, our network-based calibration allows the accurate calculation of seismic moments down to Mw < 0. However, because the HRSN is equipped only with borehole instruments, we define a frequency-dependent Generalized Free-Surface Effect (GFSE), to be used instead of the usual free-surface constant F = 2. Our spectral corrections at Parkfield need a different GFSE for each side of the SAF, which can be quantified by means of the analysis of synthetic seismograms. The importance of the GFSE of borehole instruments increases for decreasing earthquake's size because for smaller earthquakes the bandwidth available

  8. Surface Rupture Effects on Earthquake Moment-Area Scaling Relations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luo, Yingdi; Ampuero, Jean-Paul; Miyakoshi, Ken; Irikura, Kojiro

    2017-09-01

    Empirical earthquake scaling relations play a central role in fundamental studies of earthquake physics and in current practice of earthquake hazard assessment, and are being refined by advances in earthquake source analysis. A scaling relation between seismic moment ( M 0) and rupture area ( A) currently in use for ground motion prediction in Japan features a transition regime of the form M 0- A 2, between the well-recognized small (self-similar) and very large (W-model) earthquake regimes, which has counter-intuitive attributes and uncertain theoretical underpinnings. Here, we investigate the mechanical origin of this transition regime via earthquake cycle simulations, analytical dislocation models and numerical crack models on strike-slip faults. We find that, even if stress drop is assumed constant, the properties of the transition regime are controlled by surface rupture effects, comprising an effective rupture elongation along-dip due to a mirror effect and systematic changes of the shape factor relating slip to stress drop. Based on this physical insight, we propose a simplified formula to account for these effects in M 0- A scaling relations for strike-slip earthquakes.

  9. Earthquakes and Volcanic Processes at San Miguel Volcano, El Salvador, Determined from a Small, Temporary Seismic Network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hernandez, S.; Schiek, C. G.; Zeiler, C. P.; Velasco, A. A.; Hurtado, J. M.

    2008-12-01

    The San Miguel volcano lies within the Central American volcanic chain in eastern El Salvador. The volcano has experienced at least 29 eruptions with Volcano Explosivity Index (VEI) of 2. Since 1970, however, eruptions have decreased in intensity to an average of VEI 1, with the most recent eruption occurring in 2002. Eruptions at San Miguel volcano consist mostly of central vent and phreatic eruptions. A critical challenge related to the explosive nature of this volcano is to understand the relationships between precursory surface deformation, earthquake activity, and volcanic activity. In this project, we seek to determine sub-surface structures within and near the volcano, relate the local deformation to these structures, and better understand the hazard that the volcano presents in the region. To accomplish these goals, we deployed a six station, broadband seismic network around San Miguel volcano in collaboration with researchers from Servicio Nacional de Estudios Territoriales (SNET). This network operated continuously from 23 March 2007 to 15 January 2008 and had a high data recovery rate. The data were processed to determine earthquake locations, magnitudes, and, for some of the larger events, focal mechanisms. We obtained high precision locations using a double-difference approach and identified at least 25 events near the volcano. Ongoing analysis will seek to identify earthquake types (e.g., long period, tectonic, and hybrid events) that occurred in the vicinity of San Miguel volcano. These results will be combined with radar interferometric measurements of surface deformation in order to determine the relationship between surface and subsurface processes at the volcano.

  10. Earthquake prediction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ward, P.L.

    1978-01-01

    The state of the art of earthquake prediction is summarized, the possible responses to such prediction are examined, and some needs in the present prediction program and in research related to use of this new technology are reviewed. Three basic aspects of earthquake prediction are discussed: location of the areas where large earthquakes are most likely to occur, observation within these areas of measurable changes (earthquake precursors) and determination of the area and time over which the earthquake will occur, and development of models of the earthquake source in order to interpret the precursors reliably. 6 figures

  11. Source of the Vrancea, Romania intermediate-depth earthquakes: variability test of the source time function using a small-aperture array

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Popescu, E.; Radulian, M.; Popa, M.; Placinta, A.O.; Cioflan, C. O.; Grecu, B.

    2005-01-01

    The main purpose of the present work is to investigate the possibility to detect and calibrate the source parameters of the Vrancea intermediate-depth earthquakes using a small-aperture array, Bucovina Seismic Array (BURAR). BURAR array was installed in 1999 in joint cooperation between Romania and USA. The array is situated in the northern part of Romania, in Eastern Carpathians, at about 250 km distance from the Vrancea epicentral area. The array consists of 10 stations (nine short period and one broad band instruments installed in boreholes). For our study we selected 30 earthquakes (3.8 iU MD iU 6.0) occurred between 2002 and 2004, including two recent Vrancea events, which are the best ever recorded earthquakes on the Romanian territory: September 27, 2004 (45.70 angle N, 26.45 angle E, h = 166 km, M w = 4.7) and October 27, 2004 (45.84 angle N, 26.63 angle E, h = 105 km, M w 6.0). Empirical Green function deconvolution and spectral ratio methods are applied for pairs of collocated events with similar focal mechanism. Stability tests are performed for the retrieved source time function using the array elements. Empirical scaling and calibration relationships are also determined. Possible variation with depth along the subducting slab, in agreement with assumed differences in the seismic and tectonic regime between the upper (h = 60 -110 km) and lower (h = 110 - 180 km) lithospheric seismic active segments, and variation in the attenuation of the seismic waves propagating toward BURAR site, are also investigated. (authors)

  12. Numerical models of pore pressure and stress changes along basement faults due to wastewater injection: Applications to the 2014 Milan, Kansas Earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hearn, Elizabeth H.; Koltermann, Christine; Rubinstein, Justin R.

    2018-01-01

    We have developed groundwater flow models to explore the possible relationship between wastewater injection and the 12 November 2014 Mw 4.8 Milan, Kansas earthquake. We calculate pore pressure increases in the uppermost crust using a suite of models in which hydraulic properties of the Arbuckle Formation and the Milan earthquake fault zone, the Milan earthquake hypocenter depth, and fault zone geometry are varied. Given pre‐earthquake injection volumes and reasonable hydrogeologic properties, significantly increasing pore pressure at the Milan hypocenter requires that most flow occur through a conductive channel (i.e., the lower Arbuckle and the fault zone) rather than a conductive 3‐D volume. For a range of reasonable lower Arbuckle and fault zone hydraulic parameters, the modeled pore pressure increase at the Milan hypocenter exceeds a minimum triggering threshold of 0.01 MPa at the time of the earthquake. Critical factors include injection into the base of the Arbuckle Formation and proximity of the injection point to a narrow fault damage zone or conductive fracture in the pre‐Cambrian basement with a hydraulic diffusivity of about 3–30 m2/s. The maximum pore pressure increase we obtain at the Milan hypocenter before the earthquake is 0.06 MPa. This suggests that the Milan earthquake occurred on a fault segment that was critically stressed prior to significant wastewater injection in the area. Given continued wastewater injection into the upper Arbuckle in the Milan region, assessment of the middle Arbuckle as a hydraulic barrier remains an important research priority.

  13. Long-period ground motions at near-regional distances caused by the PL wave from, inland earthquakes: Observation and numerical simulation of the 2004 Mid-Niigata, Japan, Mw6.6 earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Furumura, T.; Kennett, B. L. N.

    2017-12-01

    We examine the development of large, long-period ground motions at near-regional distances (D=50-200 km) generated by the PL wave from large, shallow inland earthquakes, based on the analysis of strong motion records and finite-difference method (FDM) simulations of seismic wave propagation. PL wave can be represented as leaking modes of the crustal waveguide and are commonly observed at regional distances between 300 to 1000 km as a dispersed, long-period signal with a dominant period of about 20 s. However, observations of recent earthquakes at the dense K-NET and KiK-net strong motion networks in Japan demonstrate the dominance of the PL wave at near-regional (D=50-200 km) distances as, e.g., for the 2004 Mid Niigata, Japan, earthquake (Mw6.6; h=13 km). The observed PL wave signal between P and S wave shows a large, dispersed wave packet with dominant period of about T=4-10 s with amplitude almost comparable to or larger than the later arrival of the S and surface waves. Thus, the early arrivals of the long-period PL wave immediately after P wave can enhance resonance with large-scale constructions such as high-rise buildings and large oil-storage tanks etc. with potential for disaster. Such strong effects often occurred during the 2004 Mid Niigata earthquakes and other large earthquakes which occurred nearby the Kanto (Tokyo) basin. FDM simulation of seismic wave propagation employing realistic 3-D sedimentary structure models demonstrates the process by which the PL wave develops at near-regional distances from shallow, crustal earthquakes by constructive interference of the P wave in the long-period band. The amplitude of the PL wave is very sensitive to low-velocity structure in the near-surface. Lowered velocities help to develop large SV-to-P conversion and weaken the P-to-SV conversion at the free surface. Both effects enhance the multiple P reflections in the crustal waveguide and prevent the leakage of seismic energy into the mantle. However, a very

  14. Estimation of thawing cryolithic area with numerical modeling in 3D geometry while exploiting underground small nuclear power plant

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Melnikov N. N.

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents results on 3D numerical calculation of a thermal task related to assessing a thawing area when placing modules with reactor and steam-turbine facility of a small nuclear power plant in thickness of permafrost rocks. The paper discusses influence of the coefficient of thermal conductivity for large-scaled underground excavations lining and cryolithic area porosity on thawing depth and front movement velocity under different spatial directions

  15. Experimental and numerical analysis of the chromatic dispersion dependence upon the actual profile of small core microstructured fibres

    OpenAIRE

    Labonté , Laurent; Roy , Philippe; Pagnoux , Dominique; Louradour , Frédéric; Restoin , Christine; Mélin , Gilles; Burov , Ekatarina

    2006-01-01

    International audience; The chromatic dispersion curve of the fundamental mode in small core microstructured fibres (SCMF) is both calculated using a Finite Element Method (FEM) and measured with a low coherence interferometric method. The great sensitivity of the chromatic dispersion to variations of the geometrical parameters of SCMFs (the pitch and the diameter) is pointed out. An excellent agreement is obtained between the numerical and the experimental results over a half micrometer spec...

  16. Sun, Moon and Earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kolvankar, V. G.

    2013-12-01

    During a study conducted to find the effect of Earth tides on the occurrence of earthquakes, for small areas [typically 1000km X1000km] of high-seismicity regions, it was noticed that the Sun's position in terms of universal time [GMT] shows links to the sum of EMD [longitude of earthquake location - longitude of Moon's foot print on earth] and SEM [Sun-Earth-Moon angle]. This paper provides the details of this relationship after studying earthquake data for over forty high-seismicity regions of the world. It was found that over 98% of the earthquakes for these different regions, examined for the period 1973-2008, show a direct relationship between the Sun's position [GMT] and [EMD+SEM]. As the time changes from 00-24 hours, the factor [EMD+SEM] changes through 360 degree, and plotting these two variables for earthquakes from different small regions reveals a simple 45 degree straight-line relationship between them. This relationship was tested for all earthquakes and earthquake sequences for magnitude 2.0 and above. This study conclusively proves how Sun and the Moon govern all earthquakes. Fig. 12 [A+B]. The left-hand figure provides a 24-hour plot for forty consecutive days including the main event (00:58:23 on 26.12.2004, Lat.+3.30, Long+95.980, Mb 9.0, EQ count 376). The right-hand figure provides an earthquake plot for (EMD+SEM) vs GMT timings for the same data. All the 376 events including the main event faithfully follow the straight-line curve.

  17. Some Comments on the Behavior of the RELAP5 Numerical Scheme at Very Small Time Steps

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tiselj, Iztok; Cerne, Gregor

    2000-01-01

    The behavior of the RELAP5 code at very short time steps is described, i.e., δt [approximately equal to] 0.01 δx/c. First, the property of the RELAP5 code to trace acoustic waves with 'almost' second-order accuracy is demonstrated. Quasi-second-order accuracy is usually achieved for acoustic waves at very short time steps but can never be achieved for the propagation of nonacoustic temperature and void fraction waves. While this feature may be beneficial for the simulations of fast transients describing pressure waves, it also has an adverse effect: The lack of numerical diffusion at very short time steps can cause typical second-order numerical oscillations near steep pressure jumps. This behavior explains why an automatic halving of the time step, which is used in RELAP5 when numerical difficulties are encountered, in some cases leads to the failure of the simulation.Second, the integration of the stiff interphase exchange terms in RELAP5 is studied. For transients with flashing and/or rapid condensation as the main phenomena, results strongly depend on the time step used. Poor accuracy is achieved with 'normal' time steps (δt [approximately equal to] δx/v) because of the very short characteristic timescale of the interphase mass and heat transfer sources. In such cases significantly different results are predicted with very short time steps because of the more accurate integration of the stiff interphase exchange terms

  18. Nowcasting Earthquakes and Tsunamis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rundle, J. B.; Turcotte, D. L.

    2017-12-01

    The term "nowcasting" refers to the estimation of the current uncertain state of a dynamical system, whereas "forecasting" is a calculation of probabilities of future state(s). Nowcasting is a term that originated in economics and finance, referring to the process of determining the uncertain state of the economy or market indicators such as GDP at the current time by indirect means. We have applied this idea to seismically active regions, where the goal is to determine the current state of a system of faults, and its current level of progress through the earthquake cycle (http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016EA000185/full). Advantages of our nowcasting method over forecasting models include: 1) Nowcasting is simply data analysis and does not involve a model having parameters that must be fit to data; 2) We use only earthquake catalog data which generally has known errors and characteristics; and 3) We use area-based analysis rather than fault-based analysis, meaning that the methods work equally well on land and in subduction zones. To use the nowcast method to estimate how far the fault system has progressed through the "cycle" of large recurring earthquakes, we use the global catalog of earthquakes, using "small" earthquakes to determine the level of hazard from "large" earthquakes in the region. We select a "small" region in which the nowcast is to be made, and compute the statistics of a much larger region around the small region. The statistics of the large region are then applied to the small region. For an application, we can define a small region around major global cities, for example a "small" circle of radius 150 km and a depth of 100 km, as well as a "large" earthquake magnitude, for example M6.0. The region of influence of such earthquakes is roughly 150 km radius x 100 km depth, which is the reason these values were selected. We can then compute and rank the seismic risk of the world's major cities in terms of their relative seismic risk

  19. A numerical estimate of the small-kT region in the BFKL pomeron

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bartels, J.

    1995-11-01

    A computer study is performed to estimate the influence of the small-k T region in the BFKL evolution equation. We consider the small-x region of the deep inelastic structure function F 2 and show that the magnitude of the small-k T region depends on Q 2 and x B . We suggest that the width of the log k T 2 -distribution in the final state may serve as an additional footprint of BFKL-dynamics. For diffractive dissociation it is shown that the contribution of the infrared region is large - event for large Q 2 . This contribution becomes smaller only if restrictions on the final state are imposed. (orig.)

  20. Numerical Analysis of a Small-Size Vertical-Axis Wind Turbine Performance and Averaged Flow Parameters Around the Rotor

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rogowski Krzysztof

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Small-scale vertical-axis wind turbines can be used as a source of electricity in rural and urban environments. According to the authors’ knowledge, there are no validated simplified aerodynamic models of these wind turbines, therefore the use of more advanced techniques, such as for example the computational methods for fluid dynamics is justified. The paper contains performance analysis of the small-scale vertical-axis wind turbine with a large solidity. The averaged velocity field and the averaged static pressure distribution around the rotor have been also analyzed. All numerical results presented in this paper are obtained using the SST k-ω turbulence model. Computed power coeffcients are in good agreement with the experimental results. A small change in the tip speed ratio significantly affects the velocity field. Obtained velocity fields can be further used as a base for simplified aerodynamic methods.

  1. Numerical Analysis of Small Deformation of Flexible Helical Flagellum of Swimming Bacteria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takano, Yasunari; Goto, Tomonobu

    Formulations are conducted to numerically analyze the effect of flexible flagellum of swimming bacteria. In the present model, a single-flagellate bacterium is assumed to consist of a rigid cell body of the prolate spheroidal shape and a flexible flagellum of the helical form. The resistive force theory is applied to estimate the force exerted on the flagellum. The torsional as well as the bending moments determine the curvature and the torsion of the deformed flagellum according to the Kirchhoff model for an elastic rod. The unit tangential vector along the deformed flagellum is calculated by applying evolution equations for space curves, and also a deformed shape of the flagellum is obtained.

  2. Numerical Test of Analytical Theories for Perpendicular Diffusion in Small Kubo Number Turbulence

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Heusen, M.; Shalchi, A., E-mail: husseinm@myumanitoba.ca, E-mail: andreasm4@yahoo.com [Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, MB R3T 2N2 (Canada)

    2017-04-20

    In the literature, one can find various analytical theories for perpendicular diffusion of energetic particles interacting with magnetic turbulence. Besides quasi-linear theory, there are different versions of the nonlinear guiding center (NLGC) theory and the unified nonlinear transport (UNLT) theory. For turbulence with high Kubo numbers, such as two-dimensional turbulence or noisy reduced magnetohydrodynamic turbulence, the aforementioned nonlinear theories provide similar results. For slab and small Kubo number turbulence, however, this is not the case. In the current paper, we compare different linear and nonlinear theories with each other and test-particle simulations for a noisy slab model corresponding to small Kubo number turbulence. We show that UNLT theory agrees very well with all performed test-particle simulations. In the limit of long parallel mean free paths, the perpendicular mean free path approaches asymptotically the quasi-linear limit as predicted by the UNLT theory. For short parallel mean free paths we find a Rechester and Rosenbluth type of scaling as predicted by UNLT theory as well. The original NLGC theory disagrees with all performed simulations regardless what the parallel mean free path is. The random ballistic interpretation of the NLGC theory agrees much better with the simulations, but compared to UNLT theory the agreement is inferior. We conclude that for this type of small Kubo number turbulence, only the latter theory allows for an accurate description of perpendicular diffusion.

  3. Numerical Test of Analytical Theories for Perpendicular Diffusion in Small Kubo Number Turbulence

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heusen, M.; Shalchi, A.

    2017-01-01

    In the literature, one can find various analytical theories for perpendicular diffusion of energetic particles interacting with magnetic turbulence. Besides quasi-linear theory, there are different versions of the nonlinear guiding center (NLGC) theory and the unified nonlinear transport (UNLT) theory. For turbulence with high Kubo numbers, such as two-dimensional turbulence or noisy reduced magnetohydrodynamic turbulence, the aforementioned nonlinear theories provide similar results. For slab and small Kubo number turbulence, however, this is not the case. In the current paper, we compare different linear and nonlinear theories with each other and test-particle simulations for a noisy slab model corresponding to small Kubo number turbulence. We show that UNLT theory agrees very well with all performed test-particle simulations. In the limit of long parallel mean free paths, the perpendicular mean free path approaches asymptotically the quasi-linear limit as predicted by the UNLT theory. For short parallel mean free paths we find a Rechester and Rosenbluth type of scaling as predicted by UNLT theory as well. The original NLGC theory disagrees with all performed simulations regardless what the parallel mean free path is. The random ballistic interpretation of the NLGC theory agrees much better with the simulations, but compared to UNLT theory the agreement is inferior. We conclude that for this type of small Kubo number turbulence, only the latter theory allows for an accurate description of perpendicular diffusion.

  4. Design and Numerical Calculation of Variable Test Section for Small Supersonic Wind Tunnel

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Václav DVOŘÁK

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available The paper is concerned with numerical modelling of transition in a separated boundary layer. The model of laminar/turbulent transition is based on the combination of empirical terms determining position of the transition and averaged Navier – Stokes equations closed by the k – ω SST turbulence model. The model of transition is applied in computation of 2D flow past NACA63A421 airfoil. Computation is performed using the commercial code ANSYS Fluent 6.3.26, in which the transition method is implemented as a User-Defined-Function. Computed distributions of Cp along the airfoil are verified by comparison with experimental data, which were obtained by measurements in a closed circuit wind tunnel at the constant Reynolds number and several angles of attack. Comparisons prove applicability of the implemented transitional model.

  5. Performance assessment of a small wind turbine with crossflow runner by numerical simulations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dragomirescu, A. [University Politehnica of Bucharest, Department of Hydraulics, Hydraulic Machinery and Environmental Engineering, Splaiul Independentei 313, 060042 Bucharest (Romania)

    2011-03-15

    Most of the classical wind turbines are not able to start at wind speeds as low as 2-3 m/s. Other turbines, like Savonius, have a low maximum efficiency, which renders them useless in poor wind conditions. Therefore, new turbine designs are required to harvest wind power even when the wind speed is low. A wind turbine having a crossflow runner, similar to the Banki water turbine, is studied numerically in this work in order to estimate its performance. The results obtained suggest that this turbine has a considerable high starting torque and its maximum power coefficient is comparable to those of horizontal axis wind turbines. Based on the results obtained, some improvements of the design are proposed in order to further increase turbine performance. (author)

  6. Comparison of the Structurally Controlled Landslides Numerical Model Results to the M 7.2 2013 Bohol Earthquake Co-seismic Landslides

    Science.gov (United States)

    Macario Galang, Jan Albert; Narod Eco, Rodrigo; Mahar Francisco Lagmay, Alfredo

    2015-04-01

    The M 7.2 October 15, 2013 Bohol earthquake is the most destructive earthquake to hit the Philippines since 2012. The epicenter was located in Sagbayan municipality, central Bohol and was generated by a previously unmapped reverse fault called the "Inabanga Fault". Its name, taken after the barangay (village) where the fault is best exposed and was first seen. The earthquake resulted in 209 fatalities and over 57 billion USD worth of damages. The earthquake generated co-seismic landslides most of which were related to fault structures. Unlike rainfall induced landslides, the trigger for co-seismic landslides happen without warning. Preparedness against this type of landslide therefore, relies heavily on the identification of fracture-related unstable slopes. To mitigate the impacts of co-seismic landslide hazards, morpho-structural orientations or discontinuity sets were mapped in the field with the aid of a 2012 IFSAR Digital Terrain Model (DTM) with 5-meter pixel resolution and software was then used to identify similar structures including measurement of their dip and dip directions. The chosen discontinuity sets were then keyed into Matterocking software to identify potential rock slide zones due to planar or wedged discontinuities. After identifying the structurally-controlled unstable slopes, the rock mass propagation extent of the possible rock slides was simulated using Conefall. The results were compared to a post-earthquake landslide inventory of 456 landslides. Out the total number of landslides identified from post-earthquake high-resolution imagery, 366 or 80% intersect the structural-controlled hazard areas of Bohol. The results show the potential of this method to identify co-seismic landslide hazard areas for disaster mitigation. Along with computer methods to simulate shallow landslides, and debris flow paths, located structurally-controlled unstable zones can be used to mark unsafe areas for settlement. The method can be further improved with the

  7. Numerical simulation of the processes of small-diameter high-current electron beam shaping and injection

    CERN Document Server

    Gordeev, V S; Myskov, G A

    2001-01-01

    With the aid of BEAM 25 program there was carried out the numerical simulation of the non-stationary process of shaping a small-diameter (<= 20mm) high-current hollow electron beam in a diode with magnetic insulation,as well as of the process of beam injection into the accelerating LIA track. The diode configuration for the purpose of eliminating the leakage of electron flux to the anode surface was update. Presented are the results of calculation of the injected beam characteristics (amplitude-time parameters of a current pulse, space-angle distributions of electrons etc.) depending on diode geometric parameters.

  8. Numerical Simulation of the Time Evolution of Small-Scale Irregularities in the F-Layer Ionospheric Plasma

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O. V. Mingalev

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Dynamics of magnetic field-aligned small-scale irregularities in the electron concentration, existing in the F-layer ionospheric plasma, is investigated with the help of a mathematical model. The plasma is assumed to be a rarefied compound consisting of electrons and positive ions and being in a strong, external magnetic field. In the applied model, kinetic processes in the plasma are simulated by using the Vlasov-Poisson system of equations. The system of equations is numerically solved applying a macroparticle method. The time evolution of a plasma irregularity, having initial cross-section dimension commensurable with a Debye length, is simulated during the period sufficient for the irregularity to decay completely. The results of simulation indicate that the small-scale irregularity, created initially in the F-region ionosphere, decays accomplishing periodic damped vibrations, with the process being collisionless.

  9. A combined Importance Sampling and Kriging reliability method for small failure probabilities with time-demanding numerical models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Echard, B.; Gayton, N.; Lemaire, M.; Relun, N.

    2013-01-01

    Applying reliability methods to a complex structure is often delicate for two main reasons. First, such a structure is fortunately designed with codified rules leading to a large safety margin which means that failure is a small probability event. Such a probability level is difficult to assess efficiently. Second, the structure mechanical behaviour is modelled numerically in an attempt to reproduce the real response and numerical model tends to be more and more time-demanding as its complexity is increased to improve accuracy and to consider particular mechanical behaviour. As a consequence, performing a large number of model computations cannot be considered in order to assess the failure probability. To overcome these issues, this paper proposes an original and easily implementable method called AK-IS for active learning and Kriging-based Importance Sampling. This new method is based on the AK-MCS algorithm previously published by Echard et al. [AK-MCS: an active learning reliability method combining Kriging and Monte Carlo simulation. Structural Safety 2011;33(2):145–54]. It associates the Kriging metamodel and its advantageous stochastic property with the Importance Sampling method to assess small failure probabilities. It enables the correction or validation of the FORM approximation with only a very few mechanical model computations. The efficiency of the method is, first, proved on two academic applications. It is then conducted for assessing the reliability of a challenging aerospace case study submitted to fatigue.

  10. Numerical Modelling Approaches for Assessing Improvements to the Flow Circulation in a Small Lake

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cheng He

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Kamaniskeg Lake is a long, narrow, and deep small lake located in the northern part of Ontario, Canada. The goals of this paper were to examine various options to improve the water quality in the northern part of the lake by altering the local hydraulic flow conditions. Towards this end, a preliminary screening suggested that the flow circulation could be increased around a central island (Mask Island in the northern part of the lake by opening up an existing causeway connecting the mainland and central island. Three-dimensional (3D hydraulic and transport models were adopted in this paper to investigate the hydraulic conditions under various wind forces and causeway structures. The modelling results show that opening the causeway in a few places is unlikely to generate a large flow circulation around the central island. Full circulation only appears to be possible if the causeway is fully removed and a strong wind blows in a favourable direction. The possible reasons for existing water quality variations at the intake of a local WTP (water treatment plant are also explored in the paper.

  11. Tokamak electron heat transport by direct numerical simulation of small scale turbulence

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Labit, B.

    2002-10-01

    In a fusion machine, understanding plasma turbulence, which causes a degradation of the measured energy confinement time, would constitute a major progress in this field. In tokamaks, the measured ion and electron thermal conductivities are of comparable magnitude. The possible sources of turbulence are the temperature and density gradients occurring in a fusion plasma. Whereas the heat losses in the ion channel are reasonably well understood, the origin of the electron losses is more uncertain. In addition to the radial velocity associated to the fluctuations of the electric field, electrons are more affected than ions by the magnetic field fluctuations. In experiments, the confinement time can be conveniently expressed in terms of dimensionless parameters. Although still somewhat too imprecise, these scaling laws exhibit strong dependencies on the normalized pressure β or the normalized Larmor radius, ρ * . The present thesis assesses whether a tridimensional, electromagnetic, nonlinear fluid model of plasma turbulence driven by a specific instability can reproduce the dependence of the experimental electron heat losses on the dimensionless parameters β and ρ * . The investigated interchange instability is the Electron Temperature Gradient driven one (ETG). The model is built by using the set of Braginskii equations. The developed simulation code is global in the sense that a fixed heat flux is imposed at the inner boundary, leaving the gradients free to evolve. From the nonlinear simulations, we have put in light three characteristics for the ETG turbulence: the turbulent transport is essentially electrostatic; the potential and pressure fluctuations form radially elongated cells called streamers; the transport level is very low compared to the experimental values. The thermal transport dependence study has shown a very small role of the normalized pressure, which is in contradiction with the Ohkama's formula. On the other hand, the crucial role of the

  12. Engineering geological aspect of Gorkha Earthquake 2015, Nepal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adhikari, Basanta Raj; Andermann, Christoff; Cook, Kristen

    2016-04-01

    Strong shaking by earthquake causes massif landsliding with severe effects on infrastructure and human lives. The distribution of landslides and other hazards are depending on the combination of earthquake and local characteristics which influence the dynamic response of hillslopes. The Himalayas are one of the most active mountain belts with several kilometers of relief and is very prone to catastrophic mass failure. Strong and shallow earthquakes are very common and cause wide spread collapse of hillslopes, increasing the background landslide rate by several magnitude. The Himalaya is facing many small and large earthquakes in the past i.e. earthquakes i.e. Bihar-Nepal earthquake 1934 (Ms 8.2); Large Kangra earthquake of 1905 (Ms 7.8); Gorkha earthquake 2015 (Mw 7.8). The Mw 7.9 Gorkha earthquake has occurred on and around the main Himalayan Thrust with a hypocentral depth of 15 km (GEER 2015) followed by Mw 7.3 aftershock in Kodari causing 8700+ deaths and leaving hundreds of thousands of homeless. Most of the 3000 aftershocks located by National Seismological Center (NSC) within the first 45 days following the Gorkha Earthquake are concentrated in a narrow 40 km-wide band at midcrustal to shallow depth along the strike of the southern slope of the high Himalaya (Adhikari et al. 2015) and the ground shaking was substantially lower in the short-period range than would be expected for and earthquake of this magnitude (Moss et al. 2015). The effect of this earthquake is very unique in affected areas by showing topographic effect, liquefaction and land subsidence. More than 5000 landslides were triggered by this earthquake (Earthquake without Frontiers, 2015). Most of the landslides are shallow and occurred in weathered bedrock and appear to have mobilized primarily as raveling failures, rock slides and rock falls. Majority of landslides are limited to a zone which runs east-west, approximately parallel the lesser and higher Himalaya. There are numerous cracks in

  13. Numerical exploration of non-axisymmetric divertor closure in the small angle slot (SAS) divertor at DIII-D

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frerichs, H.; Schmitz, O.; Covele, B.; Feng, Y.; Guo, H. Y.; Hill, D.

    2018-05-01

    Numerical simulations of toroidal asymmetries in a tightly baffled small angle slot (SAS) divertor on the DIII-D tokamak show that toroidal asymmetries in divertor closure result in (non-axisymmetric) local onset of detachment within a density window of 10-15% on top of the nominal threshold separatrix density. The SAS divertor is explored at DIII-D for improving access to cold, dissipative/detached divertor conditions. The narrow width of the slot divertor coupled with a small magnetic field line-to-target angle facilitates the buildup of neutral density, thereby increasing radiative and neutrals-related (atoms and molecules) losses in the divertor. Small changes in the strike point location can be expected to have a large impact on divertor conditions. The combination of misaligned slot structure and non-axisymmetric perturbations to the magnetic field configuration causes the strike point to move along the divertor target plate, possibly leaving the divertor slot at some locations. The latter extreme case essentially introduces an opening in the divertor slot from where recycling neutrals can easily escape, and thereby degrade the performance of the slot divertor. Such a strike point dislocation is approximated by a finite gap in the divertor baffle for which 3D edge plasma and neutral gas simulations are performed with the EMC3-EIRENE code.

  14. Analog earthquakes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hofmann, R.B.

    1995-01-01

    Analogs are used to understand complex or poorly understood phenomena for which little data may be available at the actual repository site. Earthquakes are complex phenomena, and they can have a large number of effects on the natural system, as well as on engineered structures. Instrumental data close to the source of large earthquakes are rarely obtained. The rare events for which measurements are available may be used, with modfications, as analogs for potential large earthquakes at sites where no earthquake data are available. In the following, several examples of nuclear reactor and liquified natural gas facility siting are discussed. A potential use of analog earthquakes is proposed for a high-level nuclear waste (HLW) repository

  15. Earthquake number forecasts testing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kagan, Yan Y.

    2017-10-01

    We study the distributions of earthquake numbers in two global earthquake catalogues: Global Centroid-Moment Tensor and Preliminary Determinations of Epicenters. The properties of these distributions are especially required to develop the number test for our forecasts of future seismic activity rate, tested by the Collaboratory for Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP). A common assumption, as used in the CSEP tests, is that the numbers are described by the Poisson distribution. It is clear, however, that the Poisson assumption for the earthquake number distribution is incorrect, especially for the catalogues with a lower magnitude threshold. In contrast to the one-parameter Poisson distribution so widely used to describe earthquake occurrences, the negative-binomial distribution (NBD) has two parameters. The second parameter can be used to characterize the clustering or overdispersion of a process. We also introduce and study a more complex three-parameter beta negative-binomial distribution. We investigate the dependence of parameters for both Poisson and NBD distributions on the catalogue magnitude threshold and on temporal subdivision of catalogue duration. First, we study whether the Poisson law can be statistically rejected for various catalogue subdivisions. We find that for most cases of interest, the Poisson distribution can be shown to be rejected statistically at a high significance level in favour of the NBD. Thereafter, we investigate whether these distributions fit the observed distributions of seismicity. For this purpose, we study upper statistical moments of earthquake numbers (skewness and kurtosis) and compare them to the theoretical values for both distributions. Empirical values for the skewness and the kurtosis increase for the smaller magnitude threshold and increase with even greater intensity for small temporal subdivision of catalogues. The Poisson distribution for large rate values approaches the Gaussian law, therefore its skewness

  16. Charles Darwin's earthquake reports

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galiev, Shamil

    2010-05-01

    problems which began to discuss only during the last time. Earthquakes often precede volcanic eruptions. According to Darwin, the earthquake-induced shock may be a common mechanism of the simultaneous eruptions of the volcanoes separated by long distances. In particular, Darwin wrote that ‘… the elevation of many hundred square miles of territory near Concepcion is part of the same phenomenon, with that splashing up, if I may so call it, of volcanic matter through the orifices in the Cordillera at the moment of the shock;…'. According to Darwin the crust is a system where fractured zones, and zones of seismic and volcanic activities interact. Darwin formulated the task of considering together the processes studied now as seismology and volcanology. However the difficulties are such that the study of interactions between earthquakes and volcanoes began only recently and his works on this had relatively little impact on the development of geosciences. In this report, we discuss how the latest data on seismic and volcanic events support the Darwin's observations and ideas about the 1835 Chilean earthquake. The material from researchspace. auckland. ac. nz/handle/2292/4474 is used. We show how modern mechanical tests from impact engineering and simple experiments with weakly-cohesive materials also support his observations and ideas. On the other hand, we developed the mathematical theory of the earthquake-induced catastrophic wave phenomena. This theory allow to explain the most important aspects the Darwin's earthquake reports. This is achieved through the simplification of fundamental governing equations of considering problems to strongly-nonlinear wave equations. Solutions of these equations are constructed with the help of analytic and numerical techniques. The solutions can model different strongly-nonlinear wave phenomena which generate in a variety of physical context. A comparison with relevant experimental observations is also presented.

  17. Numerical Simulation on Slabs Dislocation of Zipingpu Concrete Faced Rockfill Dam during the Wenchuan Earthquake Based on a Generalized Plasticity Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bin Xu

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available After the Wenchuan earthquake in 2008, the Zipingpu concrete faced rockfill dam (CFRD was found slabs dislocation between different stages slabs and the maximum value reached 17 cm. This is a new damage pattern and did not occur in previous seismic damage investigation. Slabs dislocation will affect the seepage control system of the CFRD gravely and even the safety of the dam. Therefore, investigations of the slabs dislocation’s mechanism and development might be meaningful to the engineering design of the CFRD. In this study, based on the previous studies by the authors, the slabs dislocation phenomenon of the Zipingpu CFRD was investigated. The procedure and constitutive model of materials used for finite element analysis are consistent. The water elevation, the angel, and the strength of the construction joints were among major variables of investigation. The results indicated that the finite element procedure based on a modified generalized plasticity model and a perfect elastoplastic interface model can be used to evaluate the dislocation damage of face slabs of concrete faced rockfill dam during earthquake. The effects of the water elevation, the angel, and the strength of the construction joints are issues of major design concern under seismic loading.

  18. Numerical and analytical approaches to an advection-diffusion problem at small Reynolds number and large Péclet number

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fuller, Nathaniel J.; Licata, Nicholas A.

    2018-05-01

    Obtaining a detailed understanding of the physical interactions between a cell and its environment often requires information about the flow of fluid surrounding the cell. Cells must be able to effectively absorb and discard material in order to survive. Strategies for nutrient acquisition and toxin disposal, which have been evolutionarily selected for their efficacy, should reflect knowledge of the physics underlying this mass transport problem. Motivated by these considerations, in this paper we discuss the results from an undergraduate research project on the advection-diffusion equation at small Reynolds number and large Péclet number. In particular, we consider the problem of mass transport for a Stokesian spherical swimmer. We approach the problem numerically and analytically through a rescaling of the concentration boundary layer. A biophysically motivated first-passage problem for the absorption of material by the swimming cell demonstrates quantitative agreement between the numerical and analytical approaches. We conclude by discussing the connections between our results and the design of smart toxin disposal systems.

  19. Validation of a Numerical Model for Dynamic Three-Dimensional Railway Bridge Analysis by Comparison with a Small-Scale Laboratory Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bucinskas, Paulius; Sneideris, Jonas; Agapii, Liuba

    2018-01-01

    The aim of the paper is analyse to what extent a small-scale experimental model can be applied in order to develop and validate a numerical model for dynamic analysis of a multi-span railway bridge interacting with the underlying soil. For this purpose a small-scale model of a bridge structure is...

  20. Probability estimation of rare extreme events in the case of small samples: Technique and examples of analysis of earthquake catalogs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pisarenko, V. F.; Rodkin, M. V.; Rukavishnikova, T. A.

    2017-11-01

    The most general approach to studying the recurrence law in the area of the rare largest events is associated with the use of limit law theorems of the theory of extreme values. In this paper, we use the Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD). The unknown GPD parameters are typically determined by the method of maximal likelihood (ML). However, the ML estimation is only optimal for the case of fairly large samples (>200-300), whereas in many practical important cases, there are only dozens of large events. It is shown that in the case of a small number of events, the highest accuracy in the case of using the GPD is provided by the method of quantiles (MQs). In order to illustrate the obtained methodical results, we have formed the compiled data sets characterizing the tails of the distributions for typical subduction zones, regions of intracontinental seismicity, and for the zones of midoceanic (MO) ridges. This approach paves the way for designing a new method for seismic risk assessment. Here, instead of the unstable characteristics—the uppermost possible magnitude M max—it is recommended to use the quantiles of the distribution of random maxima for a future time interval. The results of calculating such quantiles are presented.

  1. What caused a large number of fatalities in the Tohoku earthquake?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ando, M.; Ishida, M.; Nishikawa, Y.; Mizuki, C.; Hayashi, Y.

    2012-04-01

    The Mw9.0 earthquake caused 20,000 deaths and missing persons in northeastern Japan. 115 years prior to this event, there were three historical tsunamis that struck the region, one of which is a "tsunami earthquake" resulted with a death toll of 22,000. Since then, numerous breakwaters were constructed along the entire northeastern coasts and tsunami evacuation drills were carried out and hazard maps were distributed to local residents on numerous communities. However, despite the constructions and preparedness efforts, the March 11 Tohoku earthquake caused numerous fatalities. The strong shaking lasted three minutes or longer, thus all residents recognized that this is the strongest and longest earthquake that they had been ever experienced in their lives. The tsunami inundated an enormous area at about 560km2 over 35 cities along the coast of northeast Japan. To find out the reasons behind the high number of fatalities due to the March 11 tsunami, we interviewed 150 tsunami survivors at public evacuation shelters in 7 cities mainly in Iwate prefecture in mid-April and early June 2011. Interviews were done for about 30min or longer focused on their evacuation behaviors and those that they had observed. On the basis of the interviews, we found that residents' decisions not to evacuate immediately were partly due to or influenced by earthquake science results. Below are some of the factors that affected residents' decisions. 1. Earthquake hazard assessments turned out to be incorrect. Expected earthquake magnitudes and resultant hazards in northeastern Japan assessed and publicized by the government were significantly smaller than the actual Tohoku earthquake. 2. Many residents did not receive accurate tsunami warnings. The first tsunami warning were too small compared with the actual tsunami heights. 3. The previous frequent warnings with overestimated tsunami height influenced the behavior of the residents. 4. Many local residents above 55 years old experienced

  2. The EM Earthquake Precursor

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, K. B., II; Saxton, P. T.

    2013-12-01

    Many attempts have been made to determine a sound forecasting method regarding earthquakes and warn the public in turn. Presently, the animal kingdom leads the precursor list alluding to a transmission related source. By applying the animal-based model to an electromagnetic (EM) wave model, various hypotheses were formed, but the most interesting one required the use of a magnetometer with a differing design and geometry. To date, numerous, high-end magnetometers have been in use in close proximity to fault zones for potential earthquake forecasting; however, something is still amiss. The problem still resides with what exactly is forecastable and the investigating direction of EM. After the 1989 Loma Prieta Earthquake, American earthquake investigators predetermined magnetometer use and a minimum earthquake magnitude necessary for EM detection. This action was set in motion, due to the extensive damage incurred and public outrage concerning earthquake forecasting; however, the magnetometers employed, grounded or buried, are completely subject to static and electric fields and have yet to correlate to an identifiable precursor. Secondly, there is neither a networked array for finding any epicentral locations, nor have there been any attempts to find even one. This methodology needs dismissal, because it is overly complicated, subject to continuous change, and provides no response time. As for the minimum magnitude threshold, which was set at M5, this is simply higher than what modern technological advances have gained. Detection can now be achieved at approximately M1, which greatly improves forecasting chances. A propagating precursor has now been detected in both the field and laboratory. Field antenna testing conducted outside the NE Texas town of Timpson in February, 2013, detected three strong EM sources along with numerous weaker signals. The antenna had mobility, and observations were noted for recurrence, duration, and frequency response. Next, two

  3. Numerical study on characteristics of radio-frequency discharge at atmospheric pressure in argon with small admixtures of oxygen

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Yinan; Liu, Yue

    2017-07-01

    In this paper, a 1D fluid model is developed to study the characteristics of a discharge in argon with small admixtures of oxygen at atmospheric pressure. This model consists of a series of equations, including continuity equations for electrons, positive ions, negative ions and neutral particles, the energy equation, and the Poisson equation for electric potential. Special attention has been paid to the electron energy dissipation and the mechanisms of electron heating, while the admixture of oxygen is in the range of 0.1%-0.6%. It is found that when the oxygen-to-argon ratio grows, the discharge is obviously divided into three stages: electron growth, electron reduction and the electron remaining unchanged. Furthermore, the cycle-averaged electric field, electron temperature, electron Ohmic heating, electron collisionless heating, electron energy dissipation and the net electron production are also studied in detail, and when the oxygen-to-argon ratio is relatively larger (R = 0.6%), double value peaks of electron Ohmic heating appear in the sheath. According to the results of the numerical simulation, various oxygen-to-argon ratios result in different amounts of electron energy dissipation and electron heating.

  4. Numerical study of self-heating effects of small-size MOSFETs fabricated on silicon-on-aluminum nitride substrate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ding Yanfang; Zhu Ziqiang; Zhu Ming; Lin Chenglu

    2006-01-01

    Compared with bulk-silicon technology, silicon-on-insulator (SOI) technology possesses many advantages but it is inevitable that the buried silicon dioxide layer also thermally insulates the metal-oxide-silicon field-effect transistors (MOSFETs) from the bulk due to the low thermal conductivity. One of the alternative insulator to replace the buried oxide layer is aluminum nitride (MN), which has a thermal conductivity that is about 200 times higher than that of SiO 2 (320 W·m -1 ·K -1 versus 1.4 W·m -1 ·K -l ). To investigate the self-heating effects of small-size MOSFETs fabricated on silicon-on-aluminum nitride (SOAN) substrate, a two-dimensional numerical analysis is performed by using a device simulator called MEDICI run on a Solaris workstation to simulate the electrical characteristics and temperature distribution by comparing with those of bulk and standard SOI MOSFETs. Our study suggests that AIN is a suitable alternative to silicon dioxide as a buried dielectric in SOI and expands the applications of SOI to high temperature conditions. (authors)

  5. Connecting slow earthquakes to huge earthquakes

    OpenAIRE

    Obara, Kazushige; Kato, Aitaro

    2016-01-01

    Slow earthquakes are characterized by a wide spectrum of fault slip behaviors and seismic radiation patterns that differ from those of traditional earthquakes. However, slow earthquakes and huge megathrust earthquakes can have common slip mechanisms and are located in neighboring regions of the seismogenic zone. The frequent occurrence of slow earthquakes may help to reveal the physics underlying megathrust events as useful analogs. Slow earthquakes may function as stress meters because of th...

  6. Physics of Earthquake Rupture Propagation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Shiqing; Fukuyama, Eiichi; Sagy, Amir; Doan, Mai-Linh

    2018-05-01

    A comprehensive understanding of earthquake rupture propagation requires the study of not only the sudden release of elastic strain energy during co-seismic slip, but also of other processes that operate at a variety of spatiotemporal scales. For example, the accumulation of the elastic strain energy usually takes decades to hundreds of years, and rupture propagation and termination modify the bulk properties of the surrounding medium that can influence the behavior of future earthquakes. To share recent findings in the multiscale investigation of earthquake rupture propagation, we held a session entitled "Physics of Earthquake Rupture Propagation" during the 2016 American Geophysical Union (AGU) Fall Meeting in San Francisco. The session included 46 poster and 32 oral presentations, reporting observations of natural earthquakes, numerical and experimental simulations of earthquake ruptures, and studies of earthquake fault friction. These presentations and discussions during and after the session suggested a need to document more formally the research findings, particularly new observations and views different from conventional ones, complexities in fault zone properties and loading conditions, the diversity of fault slip modes and their interactions, the evaluation of observational and model uncertainties, and comparison between empirical and physics-based models. Therefore, we organize this Special Issue (SI) of Tectonophysics under the same title as our AGU session, hoping to inspire future investigations. Eighteen articles (marked with "this issue") are included in this SI and grouped into the following six categories.

  7. Radon observation for earthquake prediction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wakita, Hiroshi [Tokyo Univ. (Japan)

    1998-12-31

    Systematic observation of groundwater radon for the purpose of earthquake prediction began in Japan in late 1973. Continuous observations are conducted at fixed stations using deep wells and springs. During the observation period, significant precursory changes including the 1978 Izu-Oshima-kinkai (M7.0) earthquake as well as numerous coseismic changes were observed. At the time of the 1995 Kobe (M7.2) earthquake, significant changes in chemical components, including radon dissolved in groundwater, were observed near the epicentral region. Precursory changes are presumably caused by permeability changes due to micro-fracturing in basement rock or migration of water from different sources during the preparation stage of earthquakes. Coseismic changes may be caused by seismic shaking and by changes in regional stress. Significant drops of radon concentration in groundwater have been observed after earthquakes at the KSM site. The occurrence of such drops appears to be time-dependent, and possibly reflects changes in the regional stress state of the observation area. The absence of radon drops seems to be correlated with periods of reduced regional seismic activity. Experience accumulated over the two past decades allows us to reach some conclusions: 1) changes in groundwater radon do occur prior to large earthquakes; 2) some sites are particularly sensitive to earthquake occurrence; and 3) the sensitivity changes over time. (author)

  8. Exploration of the role of permeability and effective stress transfer effects on Earthquakes Migration in a Fault Zone induced by a Fluid Injection in the nearby host rock: Experimental and Numerical Result.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsopela, A.; Guglielmi, Y.; Donze, F. V.; De Barros, L.; Henry, P.; Castilla, R.; Gout, C.

    2016-12-01

    Although it has long been known that anthropogenic fluid injections can induce earthquakes, the mechanisms involved are still poorly understood and our ability to assess the seismic hazard associated to the production of geothermal energy or unconventional hydrocarbon remains limited. Here we present a field injection experiment conducted in the host rock 4m away from a fault affecting Toarcian shales (Tournemire massif, France). A dense network of sensors recorded fluid pressure, flow-rate, deformation and seismic activity. Injections followed an extended leak-off test protocol. Failure in the host rock was observed for a pressure of 4.4 MPa associated to a strike-slip-to-reverse reactivation of a pre-existing fracture. Magnitude -4.2 to -3.8 seismic events were located in the fault zone 3.5-to->10m away from the injection showing focal mechanisms in reasonable agreement with a strike-slip reactivation of the fault structures. We first used fully coupled hydro-mechanical numerical modeling to quantify the injection source parameters (state of stress, size of the rupture patch and size of the pressurized patch). We applied an injection loading protocol characterized by an imposed flow rate-vs-time history according to the volume of fluid injected in-situ, to match calculated and measured pressure and displacement variations at the injection source. We then used a larger model including the fault zone to discuss how predominant the effects of stress transfer mechanisms causing a purely mechanical fault activation can be compared to the effects of effective stress variations associated to fluid propagation in the fault structures. Preliminary results are that calculated slipping patches are much higher than the one estimated from seismicity, respectively 0.3m and <10-6m, and that the dimensions of the pressurized zone hardly matches with the distance of the earthquakes.

  9. Retrospective analysis of the Spitak earthquake

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. K. Tovmassian

    1995-06-01

    Full Text Available Based on the retrospective analysis of numerous data and studies of the Spitak earthquake the present work at- tempts to shed light on different aspects of that catastrophic seismic event which occurred in Northern Arme- nia on December 7, 1988. The authors follow a chronological order of presentation, namely: changes in geo- sphere, atmosphere, biosphere during the preparation of the Spitak earthquake, foreshocks, main shock, after- shocks, focal mechanisms, historical seismicity; seismotectonic position of the source, strong motion records, site effects; the macroseismic effect, collapse of buildings and structures; rescue activities; earthquake conse- quences; and the lessons of the Spitak earthquake.

  10. Earthquake Facts

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... North Dakota, and Wisconsin. The core of the earth was the first internal structural element to be identified. In 1906 R.D. Oldham discovered it from his studies of earthquake records. The inner core is solid, and the outer core is liquid and so does not transmit ...

  11. Understanding Earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, Amanda; Gray, Ron

    2018-01-01

    December 26, 2004 was one of the deadliest days in modern history, when a 9.3 magnitude earthquake--the third largest ever recorded--struck off the coast of Sumatra in Indonesia (National Centers for Environmental Information 2014). The massive quake lasted at least 10 minutes and devastated the Indian Ocean. The quake displaced an estimated…

  12. Earthquake evaluation of a substation network

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Matsuda, E.N.; Savage, W.U.; Williams, K.K.; Laguens, G.C.

    1991-01-01

    The impact of the occurrence of a large, damaging earthquake on a regional electric power system is a function of the geographical distribution of strong shaking, the vulnerability of various types of electric equipment located within the affected region, and operational resources available to maintain or restore electric system functionality. Experience from numerous worldwide earthquake occurrences has shown that seismic damage to high-voltage substation equipment is typically the reason for post-earthquake loss of electric service. In this paper, the authors develop and apply a methodology to analyze earthquake impacts on Pacific Gas and Electric Company's (PG and E's) high-voltage electric substation network in central and northern California. The authors' objectives are to identify and prioritize ways to reduce the potential impact of future earthquakes on our electric system, refine PG and E's earthquake preparedness and response plans to be more realistic, and optimize seismic criteria for future equipment purchases for the electric system

  13. Earthquake statistics, spatiotemporal distribution of foci and source mechanisms - a key to understanding of the West Bohemia/Vogtland earthquake swarms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horálek, Josef; Čermáková, Hana; Fischer, Tomáš

    2016-04-01

    Earthquake swarms are sequences of numerous events closely clustered in space and time and do not have a single dominant mainshock. A few of the largest events in a swarm reach similar magnitudes and usually occur throughout the course of the earthquake sequence. These attributes differentiate earthquake swarms from ordinary mainshock-aftershock sequences. Earthquake swarms occur worldwide, in diverse geological units. The swarms typically accompany volcanic activity at margins of the tectonic plate but also occur in intracontinental areas where strain from tectonic-plate movement is small. The origin of earthquake swarms is still unclear. The swarms typically occur at the plate margins but also in intracontinental areas. West Bohemia-Vogtland represents one of the most active intraplate earthquake-swarm areas in Europe. It is characterised by a frequent reoccurrence of ML 2.8 swarm events are located in a few dense clusters which implies step by step rupturing of one or a few asperities during the individual swarms. The source mechanism patters (moment-tensor description, MT) of the individual swarms indicate several families of the mechanisms, which fit well geometry of respective fault segments. MTs of the most events signify pure shears except for the 1997-swarm events the MTs of which indicates a combine sources including both shear and tensile components. The origin of earthquake swarms is still unclear. Nevertheless, we infer that the individual earthquake swarms in West Bohemia-Vogtland are mixture of the mainshock-aftershock sequences which correspond to step by step rupturing of one or a few asperities. The swarms occur on short fault segments with heterogeneous stress and strength, which may be affected by pressurized crustal fluids reducing normal component of the tectonic stress and lower friction. This way critically loaded faults are brought to failure and the swarm activity is driven by the differential local stress.

  14. Extreme value statistics and thermodynamics of earthquakes. Large earthquakes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lavenda, B. [Camerino Univ., Camerino, MC (Italy); Cipollone, E. [ENEA, Centro Ricerche Casaccia, S. Maria di Galeria, RM (Italy). National Centre for Research on Thermodynamics

    2000-06-01

    A compound Poisson process is used to derive a new shape parameter which can be used to discriminate between large earthquakes and aftershocks sequences. Sample exceedance distributions of large earthquakes are fitted to the Pareto tail and the actual distribution of the maximum to the Frechet distribution, while the sample distribution of aftershocks are fitted to a Beta distribution and the distribution of the minimum to the Weibull distribution for the smallest value. The transition between initial sample distributions and asymptotic extreme value distributions show that self-similar power laws are transformed into non scaling exponential distributions so that neither self-similarity nor the Gutenberg-Richter law can be considered universal. The energy-magnitude transformation converts the Frechet distribution into the Gumbel distribution, originally proposed by Epstein and Lomnitz, and not the Gompertz distribution as in the Lomnitz-Adler and Lomnitz generalization of the Gutenberg-Richter law. Numerical comparison is made with the Lomnitz-Adler and Lomnitz analysis using the same catalogue of Chinese earthquakes. An analogy is drawn between large earthquakes and high energy particle physics. A generalized equation of state is used to transform the Gamma density into the order-statistic Frechet distribution. Earthquake temperature and volume are determined as functions of the energy. Large insurance claims based on the Pareto distribution, which does not have a right endpoint, show why there cannot be a maximum earthquake energy.

  15. Pore Pressure Evolution in Shallow Subduction Earthquake Sequences and Effects on Aseismic Slip Transients -- Numerical Modeling With Rate and State Friction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Y.; Rice, J. R.

    2005-12-01

    In 3D modeling of long tectonic loading and earthquake sequences on a shallow subduction fault [Liu and Rice, 2005], with depth-variable rate and state friction properties, we found that aseismic transient slip episodes emerge spontaneously with only a simplified representation of effects of metamorphic fluid release. That involved assumption of a constant in time but uniformly low effective normal stress in the downdip region. As suggested by observations in several major subduction zones [Obara, 2002; Rogers and Dragert, 2003; Kodaira et al, 2004], the presence of fluids, possibly released from dehydration reactions beneath the seismogenic zone, and their pressurization within the fault zone may play an important role in causing aseismic transients and associated non-volcanic tremors. To investigate the effects of fluids in the subduction zone, particularly on the generation of aseismic transients and their various features, we develop a more complete physical description of the pore pressure evolution (specifically, pore pressure increase due to supply from dehydration reactions and shear heating, decrease due to transport and dilatancy during slip), and incorporate that into the rate and state based 3D modeling. We first incorporated two important factors, dilatancy and shear heating, following Segall and Rice [1995, 2004] and Taylor [1998]. In the 2D simulations (slip varies with depth only), a dilatancy-stabilizing effect is seen which slows down the seismic rupture front and can prevent rapid slip from extending all the way to the trench, similarly to Taylor [1998]. Shear heating increases the pore pressure, and results in faster coseismic rupture propagation and larger final slips. In the 3D simulations, dilatancy also stabilizes the along-strike rupture propagation of both seismic and aseismic slips. That is, aseismic slip transients migrate along the strike faster with a shorter Tp (the characteristic time for pore pressure in the fault core to re

  16. Ionospheric phenomena before strong earthquakes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. S. Silina

    2001-01-01

    Full Text Available A statistical analysis of several ionospheric parameters before earthquakes with magnitude M > 5.5 located less than 500 km from an ionospheric vertical sounding station is performed. Ionospheric effects preceding "deep" (depth h > 33 km and "crust" (h 33 km earthquakes were analysed separately. Data of nighttime measurements of the critical frequencies foF2 and foEs, the frequency fbEs and Es-spread at the middle latitude station Dushanbe were used. The frequencies foF2 and fbEs are proportional to the square root of the ionization density at heights of 300 km and 100 km, respectively. It is shown that two days before the earthquakes the values of foF2 averaged over the morning hours (00:00 LT–06:00 LT and of fbEs averaged over the nighttime hours (18:00 LT–06:00 LT decrease; the effect is stronger for the "deep" earthquakes. Analysing the coefficient of semitransparency which characterizes the degree of small-scale turbulence, it was shown that this value increases 1–4 days before "crust" earthquakes, and it does not change before "deep" earthquakes. Studying Es-spread which manifests itself as diffuse Es track on ionograms and characterizes the degree of large-scale turbulence, it was found that the number of Es-spread observations increases 1–3 days before the earthquakes; for "deep" earthquakes the effect is more intensive. Thus it may be concluded that different mechanisms of energy transfer from the region of earthquake preparation to the ionosphere occur for "deep" and "crust" events.

  17. Numerical development of a new correlation between biaxial fracture strain and material fracture toughness for small punch test

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kumar, Pradeep [Homi Bhabha National Institute, Anushaktinagar, Mumbai 400094 (India); Dutta, B.K., E-mail: bijon.dutta@gmail.com [Homi Bhabha National Institute, Anushaktinagar, Mumbai 400094 (India); Chattopadhyay, J. [Homi Bhabha National Institute, Anushaktinagar, Mumbai 400094 (India); Reactor Safety Division, Bhabha Atomic Research Centre, Mumbai 400085 (India)

    2017-04-01

    The miniaturized specimens are used to determine mechanical properties of the materials, such as yield stress, ultimate stress, fracture toughness etc. Use of such specimens is essential whenever limited quantity of material is available for testing, such as aged/irradiated materials. The miniaturized small punch test (SPT) is a technique which is widely used to determine change in mechanical properties of the materials. Various empirical correlations are proposed in the literature to determine the value of fracture toughness (J{sub IC}) using this technique. bi-axial fracture strain is determined using SPT tests. This parameter is then used to determine J{sub IC} using available empirical correlations. The correlations between J{sub IC} and biaxial fracture strain quoted in the literature are based on experimental data acquired for large number of materials. There are number of such correlations available in the literature, which are generally not in agreement with each other. In the present work, an attempt has been made to determine the correlation between biaxial fracture strain (ε{sub qf}) and crack initiation toughness (J{sub i}) numerically. About one hundred materials are digitally generated by varying yield stress, ultimate stress, hardening coefficient and Gurson parameters. Such set of each material is then used to analyze a SPT specimen and a standard TPB specimen. Analysis of SPT specimen generated biaxial fracture strain (ε{sub qf}) and analysis of TPB specimen generated value of J{sub i}. A graph is then plotted between these two parameters for all the digitally generated materials. The best fit straight line determines the correlation. It has been also observed that it is possible to have variation in J{sub i} for the same value of biaxial fracture strain (ε{sub qf}) within a limit. Such variation in the value of J{sub i} has been also ascertained using the graph. Experimental SPT data acquired earlier for three materials were then used to get J

  18. Modified Johnson–Cook Model-based Numerical Simulation of Small Arms Bullets Penetration in the Aluminum Alloy Plates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Shash

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we simulated and studied the penetration process of 7,62 x 63 mm bullets "NATO Ball" (with a soft lead core and 7.62 x 63 mm ones «APM2» (with hard steel core in three kinds of aluminum plates, namely AA5083- H116, AA6082-T4, and AA7075-T6 with three different thicknesses of 10 mm, 20 mm, and 30 mm. The impact velocity was 830 m / s in all tests. Based on the test results and numerical calculations, all plates and a bullet were modeled as the deformable ones with modified constitutive Johnson-Cook relationship and Cockcroft-Latham fracture criterion. Then they were used in modeling by three-dimensional nonlinear finite element in Ansys Ls-Dyna package. The influence of the finite element size in the finite element model on the length and results of calculations has been investigated as well.The main calculation results, we have received, include the residual bullet velocity and the residual kinetic energy of the bullet after drilling a hole in the plate and plate failure mechanism for each type and thickness of the plate with two types of bullets. We have noticed that the residual velocities of the bullets for small thicknesses of aluminum alloys (up to 10 mm have relatively equal values upon penetration of the bullets "NATO Ball" and «APM2» (a bit more, as well as the calculation-obtained failure mechanisms are adequate to experimental. In addition, resistance of AA7075-T651 aluminum alloy to penetration is higher than that of AA5083-H116 and AA6082-T4 ones.It should also be noted that the accuracy of the results depends mainly on the size of the grid elements. The more is the number of elements, the higher is the accuracy of the results, but the longer is the solution time. Therefore, we advice to use the finite element size of 0.2 mm, at most, to obtain the highly accurate results that are adequate to the experimental results.

  19. Numerical Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siegler, Robert S.; Braithwaite, David W.

    2016-01-01

    In this review, we attempt to integrate two crucial aspects of numerical development: learning the magnitudes of individual numbers and learning arithmetic. Numerical magnitude development involves gaining increasingly precise knowledge of increasing ranges and types of numbers: from non-symbolic to small symbolic numbers, from smaller to larger…

  20. Earthquake potential revealed by tidal influence on earthquake size-frequency statistics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ide, Satoshi; Yabe, Suguru; Tanaka, Yoshiyuki

    2016-11-01

    The possibility that tidal stress can trigger earthquakes is long debated. In particular, a clear causal relationship between small earthquakes and the phase of tidal stress is elusive. However, tectonic tremors deep within subduction zones are highly sensitive to tidal stress levels, with tremor rate increasing at an exponential rate with rising tidal stress. Thus, slow deformation and the possibility of earthquakes at subduction plate boundaries may be enhanced during periods of large tidal stress. Here we calculate the tidal stress history, and specifically the amplitude of tidal stress, on a fault plane in the two weeks before large earthquakes globally, based on data from the global, Japanese, and Californian earthquake catalogues. We find that very large earthquakes, including the 2004 Sumatran, 2010 Maule earthquake in Chile and the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake in Japan, tend to occur near the time of maximum tidal stress amplitude. This tendency is not obvious for small earthquakes. However, we also find that the fraction of large earthquakes increases (the b-value of the Gutenberg-Richter relation decreases) as the amplitude of tidal shear stress increases. The relationship is also reasonable, considering the well-known relationship between stress and the b-value. This suggests that the probability of a tiny rock failure expanding to a gigantic rupture increases with increasing tidal stress levels. We conclude that large earthquakes are more probable during periods of high tidal stress.

  1. Generation of earthquake signals

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kjell, G.

    1994-01-01

    Seismic verification can be performed either as a full scale test on a shaker table or as numerical calculations. In both cases it is necessary to have an earthquake acceleration time history. This report describes generation of such time histories by filtering white noise. Analogue and digital filtering methods are compared. Different methods of predicting the response spectrum of a white noise signal filtered by a band-pass filter are discussed. Prediction of both the average response level and the statistical variation around this level are considered. Examples with both the IEEE 301 standard response spectrum and a ground spectrum suggested for Swedish nuclear power stations are included in the report

  2. Connecting slow earthquakes to huge earthquakes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Obara, Kazushige; Kato, Aitaro

    2016-07-15

    Slow earthquakes are characterized by a wide spectrum of fault slip behaviors and seismic radiation patterns that differ from those of traditional earthquakes. However, slow earthquakes and huge megathrust earthquakes can have common slip mechanisms and are located in neighboring regions of the seismogenic zone. The frequent occurrence of slow earthquakes may help to reveal the physics underlying megathrust events as useful analogs. Slow earthquakes may function as stress meters because of their high sensitivity to stress changes in the seismogenic zone. Episodic stress transfer to megathrust source faults leads to an increased probability of triggering huge earthquakes if the adjacent locked region is critically loaded. Careful and precise monitoring of slow earthquakes may provide new information on the likelihood of impending huge earthquakes. Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

  3. Mass determination of moment magnitudes M w and establishing the relationship between M w and M L for moderate and small Kamchatka earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abubakirov, I. R.; Gusev, A. A.; Guseva, E. M.; Pavlov, V. M.; Skorkina, A. A.

    2018-01-01

    The average relationship is established between the basic magnitude for the Kamchatka regional catalog, M L , and modern moment magnitude M w. The latter is firmly tied to the value of the source seismic moment M 0 which has a direct physical meaning. M L magnitude is not self-reliant but is obtained through the conversion of the traditional Fedotov's S-wave energy class, K S1,2 F68 . Installation of the digital seismographic network in Kamchatka in 2006-2010 permitted mass estimates of M 0 and M w to be obtained from the regional data. In this paper we outline a number of techniques to estimate M 0 for the Kamchatka earthquakes using the waveforms of regional stations, and then compare the obtained M w estimates with each other and with M L , based on several hundred earthquakes that took place in 2010-2014. On the average, for M w = 3.0-6.0, M w = M L -0.40; this relationship allows obtaining M w estimates (proxy- M w) for a large part of the regional earthquake catalog with M L = 3.4-6.4 ( M w = 3.0-6.0).

  4. Twitter earthquake detection: Earthquake monitoring in a social world

    Science.gov (United States)

    Earle, Paul S.; Bowden, Daniel C.; Guy, Michelle R.

    2011-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is investigating how the social networking site Twitter, a popular service for sending and receiving short, public text messages, can augment USGS earthquake response products and the delivery of hazard information. Rapid detection and qualitative assessment of shaking events are possible because people begin sending public Twitter messages (tweets) with in tens of seconds after feeling shaking. Here we present and evaluate an earthquake detection procedure that relies solely on Twitter data. A tweet-frequency time series constructed from tweets containing the word "earthquake" clearly shows large peaks correlated with the origin times of widely felt events. To identify possible earthquakes, we use a short-term-average, long-term-average algorithm. When tuned to a moderate sensitivity, the detector finds 48 globally-distributed earthquakes with only two false triggers in five months of data. The number of detections is small compared to the 5,175 earthquakes in the USGS global earthquake catalog for the same five-month time period, and no accurate location or magnitude can be assigned based on tweet data alone. However, Twitter earthquake detections are not without merit. The detections are generally caused by widely felt events that are of more immediate interest than those with no human impact. The detections are also fast; about 75% occur within two minutes of the origin time. This is considerably faster than seismographic detections in poorly instrumented regions of the world. The tweets triggering the detections also provided very short first-impression narratives from people who experienced the shaking.

  5. Pain after earthquake

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Angeletti Chiara

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Introduction On 6 April 2009, at 03:32 local time, an Mw 6.3 earthquake hit the Abruzzi region of central Italy causing widespread damage in the City of L Aquila and its nearby villages. The earthquake caused 308 casualties and over 1,500 injuries, displaced more than 25,000 people and induced significant damage to more than 10,000 buildings in the L'Aquila region. Objectives This observational retrospective study evaluated the prevalence and drug treatment of pain in the five weeks following the L'Aquila earthquake (April 6, 2009. Methods 958 triage documents were analysed for patients pain severity, pain type, and treatment efficacy. Results A third of pain patients reported pain with a prevalence of 34.6%. More than half of pain patients reported severe pain (58.8%. Analgesic agents were limited to available drugs: anti-inflammatory agents, paracetamol, and weak opioids. Reduction in verbal numerical pain scores within the first 24 hours after treatment was achieved with the medications at hand. Pain prevalence and characterization exhibited a biphasic pattern with acute pain syndromes owing to trauma occurring in the first 15 days after the earthquake; traumatic pain then decreased and re-surged at around week five, owing to rebuilding efforts. In the second through fourth week, reports of pain occurred mainly owing to relapses of chronic conditions. Conclusions This study indicates that pain is prevalent during natural disasters, may exhibit a discernible pattern over the weeks following the event, and current drug treatments in this region may be adequate for emergency situations.

  6. Imaging and Understanding Foreshock and Aftershock Behavior Around the 2014 Iquique, Northern Chile, Earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, H.; Meng, X.; Peng, Z.; Newman, A. V.; Hu, S.; Williamson, A.

    2014-12-01

    On April 1st, 2014, a moment magnitude (MW) 8.2 earthquake occurred offshore Iquique, Northern Chile. There were numerous smaller earthquakes preceding and following the mainshock, making it an ideal case to study the spatio-temporal relation among these events and their association with the mainshock. We applied a matched-filter technique to detect previously missing foreshocks and aftershocks of the 2014 Iquique earthquake. Using more than 900 template events recorded by 19 broadband seismic stations (network code CX) operated by the GEOFON Program of GFZ Potsdam, we found 4392 earthquakes between March 1st and April 3rd, 2014, including more than 30 earthquakes with magnitude larger than 4 that were previously missed in the catalog from the Chile National Seismological Center. Additionally, we found numerous small earthquakes with magnitudes between 1 and 2 preceding the largest foreshock, an MW 6.7 event occurring on March 16th, approximately 2 weeks before the Iquique mainshock. We observed that the foreshocks migrated northward at a speed of approximately 6 km/day. Using a finite fault slip model of the mainshock determined from teleseismic waveform inversion (Hayes, 2014), we calculated the Coulomb stress changes in the nearby regions of the mainshock. We found that there was ~200% increase in seismicity in the areas with increased Coulomb stress. Our next step is to evaluate the Coulomb stress changes associated with earlier foreshocks and their roles in triggering later foreshocks, and possibly the mainshock. For this, we plan to create a fault model of the temporal evolution of the Coulomb behavior along the interface with time, assuming Wells and Coppersmith (1994) type fault parameters. These results will be compared with double-difference relocations (using HypoDD), presenting a more accurate understanding of the spatial-temporal evolution of foreshocks and aftershocks of the 2014 Iquique earthquake.

  7. Defeating Earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stein, R. S.

    2012-12-01

    The 2004 M=9.2 Sumatra earthquake claimed what seemed an unfathomable 228,000 lives, although because of its size, we could at least assure ourselves that it was an extremely rare event. But in the short space of 8 years, the Sumatra quake no longer looks like an anomaly, and it is no longer even the worst disaster of the Century: 80,000 deaths in the 2005 M=7.6 Pakistan quake; 88,000 deaths in the 2008 M=7.9 Wenchuan, China quake; 316,000 deaths in the M=7.0 Haiti, quake. In each case, poor design and construction were unable to withstand the ferocity of the shaken earth. And this was compounded by inadequate rescue, medical care, and shelter. How could the toll continue to mount despite the advances in our understanding of quake risk? The world's population is flowing into megacities, and many of these migration magnets lie astride the plate boundaries. Caught between these opposing demographic and seismic forces are 50 cities of at least 3 million people threatened by large earthquakes, the targets of chance. What we know for certain is that no one will take protective measures unless they are convinced they are at risk. Furnishing that knowledge is the animating principle of the Global Earthquake Model, launched in 2009. At the very least, everyone should be able to learn what his or her risk is. At the very least, our community owes the world an estimate of that risk. So, first and foremost, GEM seeks to raise quake risk awareness. We have no illusions that maps or models raise awareness; instead, earthquakes do. But when a quake strikes, people need a credible place to go to answer the question, how vulnerable am I, and what can I do about it? The Global Earthquake Model is being built with GEM's new open source engine, OpenQuake. GEM is also assembling the global data sets without which we will never improve our understanding of where, how large, and how frequently earthquakes will strike, what impacts they will have, and how those impacts can be lessened by

  8. Swedish earthquakes and acceleration probabilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Slunga, R.

    1979-03-01

    A method to assign probabilities to ground accelerations for Swedish sites is described. As hardly any nearfield instrumental data is available we are left with the problem of interpreting macroseismic data in terms of acceleration. By theoretical wave propagation computations the relation between seismic strength of the earthquake, focal depth, distance and ground accelerations are calculated. We found that most Swedish earthquake of the area, the 1904 earthquake 100 km south of Oslo, is an exception and probably had a focal depth exceeding 25 km. For the nuclear power plant sites an annual probability of 10 -5 has been proposed as interesting. This probability gives ground accelerations in the range 5-20 % for the sites. This acceleration is for a free bedrock site. For consistency all acceleration results in this study are given for bedrock sites. When applicating our model to the 1904 earthquake and assuming the focal zone to be in the lower crust we get the epicentral acceleration of this earthquake to be 5-15 % g. The results above are based on an analyses of macrosismic data as relevant instrumental data is lacking. However, the macroseismic acceleration model deduced in this study gives epicentral ground acceleration of small Swedish earthquakes in agreement with existent distant instrumental data. (author)

  9. Large earthquakes and creeping faults

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harris, Ruth A.

    2017-01-01

    Faults are ubiquitous throughout the Earth's crust. The majority are silent for decades to centuries, until they suddenly rupture and produce earthquakes. With a focus on shallow continental active-tectonic regions, this paper reviews a subset of faults that have a different behavior. These unusual faults slowly creep for long periods of time and produce many small earthquakes. The presence of fault creep and the related microseismicity helps illuminate faults that might not otherwise be located in fine detail, but there is also the question of how creeping faults contribute to seismic hazard. It appears that well-recorded creeping fault earthquakes of up to magnitude 6.6 that have occurred in shallow continental regions produce similar fault-surface rupture areas and similar peak ground shaking as their locked fault counterparts of the same earthquake magnitude. The behavior of much larger earthquakes on shallow creeping continental faults is less well known, because there is a dearth of comprehensive observations. Computational simulations provide an opportunity to fill the gaps in our understanding, particularly of the dynamic processes that occur during large earthquake rupture and arrest.

  10. Earthquake Early Warning Systems

    OpenAIRE

    Pei-Yang Lin

    2011-01-01

    Because of Taiwan’s unique geographical environment, earthquake disasters occur frequently in Taiwan. The Central Weather Bureau collated earthquake data from between 1901 and 2006 (Central Weather Bureau, 2007) and found that 97 earthquakes had occurred, of which, 52 resulted in casualties. The 921 Chichi Earthquake had the most profound impact. Because earthquakes have instant destructive power and current scientific technologies cannot provide precise early warnings in advance, earthquake ...

  11. Small Private Online Research: A Proposal for A Numerical Methods Course Based on Technology Use and Blended Learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cepeda, Francisco Javier Delgado

    2017-01-01

    This work presents a proposed model in blended learning for a numerical methods course evolved from traditional teaching into a research lab in scientific visualization. The blended learning approach sets a differentiated and flexible scheme based on a mobile setup and face to face sessions centered on a net of research challenges. Model is…

  12. Laboratory generated M -6 earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    McLaskey, Gregory C.; Kilgore, Brian D.; Lockner, David A.; Beeler, Nicholas M.

    2014-01-01

    We consider whether mm-scale earthquake-like seismic events generated in laboratory experiments are consistent with our understanding of the physics of larger earthquakes. This work focuses on a population of 48 very small shocks that are foreshocks and aftershocks of stick–slip events occurring on a 2.0 m by 0.4 m simulated strike-slip fault cut through a large granite sample. Unlike the larger stick–slip events that rupture the entirety of the simulated fault, the small foreshocks and aftershocks are contained events whose properties are controlled by the rigidity of the surrounding granite blocks rather than characteristics of the experimental apparatus. The large size of the experimental apparatus, high fidelity sensors, rigorous treatment of wave propagation effects, and in situ system calibration separates this study from traditional acoustic emission analyses and allows these sources to be studied with as much rigor as larger natural earthquakes. The tiny events have short (3–6 μs) rise times and are well modeled by simple double couple focal mechanisms that are consistent with left-lateral slip occurring on a mm-scale patch of the precut fault surface. The repeatability of the experiments indicates that they are the result of frictional processes on the simulated fault surface rather than grain crushing or fracture of fresh rock. Our waveform analysis shows no significant differences (other than size) between the M -7 to M -5.5 earthquakes reported here and larger natural earthquakes. Their source characteristics such as stress drop (1–10 MPa) appear to be entirely consistent with earthquake scaling laws derived for larger earthquakes.

  13. Housing Damage Following Earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    1989-01-01

    An automobile lies crushed under the third story of this apartment building in the Marina District after the Oct. 17, 1989, Loma Prieta earthquake. The ground levels are no longer visible because of structural failure and sinking due to liquefaction. Sand and soil grains have faces that can cause friction as they roll and slide against each other, or even cause sticking and form small voids between grains. This complex behavior can cause soil to behave like a liquid under certain conditions such as earthquakes or when powders are handled in industrial processes. Mechanics of Granular Materials (MGM) experiments aboard the Space Shuttle use the microgravity of space to simulate this behavior under conditons that carnot be achieved in laboratory tests on Earth. MGM is shedding light on the behavior of fine-grain materials under low effective stresses. Applications include earthquake engineering, granular flow technologies (such as powder feed systems for pharmaceuticals and fertilizers), and terrestrial and planetary geology. Nine MGM specimens have flown on two Space Shuttle flights. Another three are scheduled to fly on STS-107. The principal investigator is Stein Sture of the University of Colorado at Boulder. Credit: J.K. Nakata, U.S. Geological Survey.

  14. Extreme value statistics and thermodynamics of earthquakes: large earthquakes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. H. Lavenda

    2000-06-01

    Full Text Available A compound Poisson process is used to derive a new shape parameter which can be used to discriminate between large earthquakes and aftershock sequences. Sample exceedance distributions of large earthquakes are fitted to the Pareto tail and the actual distribution of the maximum to the Fréchet distribution, while the sample distribution of aftershocks are fitted to a Beta distribution and the distribution of the minimum to the Weibull distribution for the smallest value. The transition between initial sample distributions and asymptotic extreme value distributions shows that self-similar power laws are transformed into nonscaling exponential distributions so that neither self-similarity nor the Gutenberg-Richter law can be considered universal. The energy-magnitude transformation converts the Fréchet distribution into the Gumbel distribution, originally proposed by Epstein and Lomnitz, and not the Gompertz distribution as in the Lomnitz-Adler and Lomnitz generalization of the Gutenberg-Richter law. Numerical comparison is made with the Lomnitz-Adler and Lomnitz analysis using the same Catalogue of Chinese Earthquakes. An analogy is drawn between large earthquakes and high energy particle physics. A generalized equation of state is used to transform the Gamma density into the order-statistic Fréchet distribution. Earthquaketemperature and volume are determined as functions of the energy. Large insurance claims based on the Pareto distribution, which does not have a right endpoint, show why there cannot be a maximum earthquake energy.

  15. Identified EM Earthquake Precursors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Kenneth, II; Saxton, Patrick

    2014-05-01

    Many attempts have been made to determine a sound forecasting method regarding earthquakes and warn the public in turn. Presently, the animal kingdom leads the precursor list alluding to a transmission related source. By applying the animal-based model to an electromagnetic (EM) wave model, various hypotheses were formed, but the most interesting one required the use of a magnetometer with a differing design and geometry. To date, numerous, high-end magnetometers have been in use in close proximity to fault zones for potential earthquake forecasting; however, something is still amiss. The problem still resides with what exactly is forecastable and the investigating direction of EM. After a number of custom rock experiments, two hypotheses were formed which could answer the EM wave model. The first hypothesis concerned a sufficient and continuous electron movement either by surface or penetrative flow, and the second regarded a novel approach to radio transmission. Electron flow along fracture surfaces was determined to be inadequate in creating strong EM fields, because rock has a very high electrical resistance making it a high quality insulator. Penetrative flow could not be corroborated as well, because it was discovered that rock was absorbing and confining electrons to a very thin skin depth. Radio wave transmission and detection worked with every single test administered. This hypothesis was reviewed for propagating, long-wave generation with sufficient amplitude, and the capability of penetrating solid rock. Additionally, fracture spaces, either air or ion-filled, can facilitate this concept from great depths and allow for surficial detection. A few propagating precursor signals have been detected in the field occurring with associated phases using custom-built loop antennae. Field testing was conducted in Southern California from 2006-2011, and outside the NE Texas town of Timpson in February, 2013. The antennae have mobility and observations were noted for

  16. A smartphone application for earthquakes that matter!

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bossu, Rémy; Etivant, Caroline; Roussel, Fréderic; Mazet-Roux, Gilles; Steed, Robert

    2014-05-01

    Smartphone applications have swiftly become one of the most popular tools for rapid reception of earthquake information for the public, some of them having been downloaded more than 1 million times! The advantages are obvious: wherever someone's own location is, they can be automatically informed when an earthquake has struck. Just by setting a magnitude threshold and an area of interest, there is no longer the need to browse the internet as the information reaches you automatically and instantaneously! One question remains: are the provided earthquake notifications always relevant for the public? What are the earthquakes that really matters to laypeople? One clue may be derived from some newspaper reports that show that a while after damaging earthquakes many eyewitnesses scrap the application they installed just after the mainshock. Why? Because either the magnitude threshold is set too high and many felt earthquakes are missed, or it is set too low and the majority of the notifications are related to unfelt earthquakes thereby only increasing anxiety among the population at each new update. Felt and damaging earthquakes are the ones that matter the most for the public (and authorities). They are the ones of societal importance even when of small magnitude. A smartphone application developed by EMSC (Euro-Med Seismological Centre) with the financial support of the Fondation MAIF aims at providing suitable notifications for earthquakes by collating different information threads covering tsunamigenic, potentially damaging and felt earthquakes. Tsunamigenic earthquakes are considered here to be those ones that are the subject of alert or information messages from the PTWC (Pacific Tsunami Warning Centre). While potentially damaging earthquakes are identified through an automated system called EQIA (Earthquake Qualitative Impact Assessment) developed and operated at EMSC. This rapidly assesses earthquake impact by comparing the population exposed to each expected

  17. Twitter earthquake detection: earthquake monitoring in a social world

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel C. Bowden

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS is investigating how the social networking site Twitter, a popular service for sending and receiving short, public text messages, can augment USGS earthquake response products and the delivery of hazard information. Rapid detection and qualitative assessment of shaking events are possible because people begin sending public Twitter messages (tweets with in tens of seconds after feeling shaking. Here we present and evaluate an earthquake detection procedure that relies solely on Twitter data. A tweet-frequency time series constructed from tweets containing the word “earthquake” clearly shows large peaks correlated with the origin times of widely felt events. To identify possible earthquakes, we use a short-term-average, long-term-average algorithm. When tuned to a moderate sensitivity, the detector finds 48 globally-distributed earthquakes with only two false triggers in five months of data. The number of detections is small compared to the 5,175 earthquakes in the USGS global earthquake catalog for the same five-month time period, and no accurate location or magnitude can be assigned based on tweet data alone. However, Twitter earthquake detections are not without merit. The detections are generally caused by widely felt events that are of more immediate interest than those with no human impact. The detections are also fast; about 75% occur within two minutes of the origin time. This is considerably faster than seismographic detections in poorly instrumented regions of the world. The tweets triggering the detections also provided very short first-impression narratives from people who experienced the shaking.

  18. Space-time behavior of continental intraplate earthquakes and implications for hazard assessment in China and the Central U.S.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stein, Seth; Liu, Mian; Luo, Gang; Wang, Hui

    2014-05-01

    Earthquakes in midcontinents and those at plate boundaries behave quite differently in space and time, owing to the geometry of faults and the rate at which they are loaded. Faults at plate boundaries are loaded at constant rates by steady relative plate motion. Consequently, earthquakes concentrate along the plate boundary faults, and show quasi-periodic occurrences, although the actual temporal patterns are often complicated. However, in midcontinents, the tectonic loading is shared by a complex system of interacting faults spread over a large region, such that a large earthquake on one fault could increase the loading rates on remote faults in the system. Because the low tectonic loading rate is shared by many faults in midcontinents, individual faults may remain dormant for a long time and then become active for a short period. The resulting earthquakes are therefore episodic and spatially migrating. These effects can be seen in many areas, with a prime example being a 2000-year record from North China, which shows migration of large earthquakes between fault systems spread over a large region such that no large earthquakes rupture the same fault segment twice. Because seismic activity within mid-continents is usually much lower than that along plate boundary zones, even small earthquakes can cause widespread concerns, especially when these events occur in the source regions of previous large earthquakes. However, these small earthquakes may be aftershocks that continue for decades or even longer, because aftershock sequences often last much longer in midcontinents where tectonic loading is slow, than at plate boundaries. The recent seismicity in the Tangshan region in North China is likely aftershocks of the 1976 M7.8 Tangshan earthquake. Similarly, current seismicity in the New Madrid seismic zone in central U.S. appears to be aftershocks of a cluster of M ~7.0 events in 1811-1812. These large events and similar events in the past millennium release strain

  19. Numerical investigation on the flow and power of small-sized multi-bladed straight Darrieus wind turbine

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2007-01-01

    Straight Darrieus wind turbine has attractive characteristics such as the ability to accept wind from random direction and easy installation and maintenance. But its aerodynamic performance is very complicated, especially for the existence of dynamic stall. How to get better aerodynamic performance arouses lots of interests in the design procedure of a straight Darrieus wind turbine. In this paper, mainly the effects of number of blades and tip speed ratio are discussed. Based on the numerical investigation, an assumed asymmetric straight Darrieus wind turbine is proposed to improve the averaged power coefficient. As to the numerical method, the flow around the turbine is simulated by solving the 2D unsteady Navier-Stokes equation combined with continuous equation. The time marching method on a body-fitted coordinate system based on MAC (Marker-and-Cell) method is used. O-type grid is generated for the whole calculation domain. The characteristics of tangential and normal force are discussed related with dynamic stall of the blade. Averaged power coefficient per period of rotating is calculated to evaluate the eligibility of the turbine.

  20. Prediction of site specific ground motion for large earthquake

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kamae, Katsuhiro; Irikura, Kojiro; Fukuchi, Yasunaga.

    1990-01-01

    In this paper, we apply the semi-empirical synthesis method by IRIKURA (1983, 1986) to the estimation of site specific ground motion using accelerograms observed at Kumatori in Osaka prefecture. Target earthquakes used here are a comparatively distant earthquake (Δ=95 km, M=5.6) caused by the YAMASAKI fault and a near earthquake (Δ=27 km, M=5.6). The results obtained are as follows. 1) The accelerograms from the distant earthquake (M=5.6) are synthesized using the aftershock records (M=4.3) for 1983 YAMASAKI fault earthquake whose source parameters have been obtained by other authors from the hypocentral distribution of the aftershocks. The resultant synthetic motions show a good agreement with the observed ones. 2) The synthesis for a near earthquake (M=5.6, we call this target earthquake) are made using a small earthquake which occurred in the neighborhood of the target earthquake. Here, we apply two methods for giving the parameters for synthesis. One method is to use the parameters of YAMASAKI fault earthquake which has the same magnitude as the target earthquake, and the other is to use the parameters obtained from several existing empirical formulas. The resultant synthetic motion with the former parameters shows a good agreement with the observed one, but that with the latter does not. 3) We estimate the source parameters from the source spectra of several earthquakes which have been observed in this site. Consequently we find that the small earthquakes (M<4) as Green's functions should be carefully used because the stress drops are not constant. 4) We propose that we should designate not only the magnitudes but also seismic moments of the target earthquake and the small earthquake. (J.P.N.)

  1. Pole placement algorithm for control of civil structures subjected to earthquake excitation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nikos Pnevmatikos

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available In this paper the control algorithm for controlled civil structures subjected to earthquake excitation is thoroughly investigated. The objective of this work is the control of structures by means of the pole placement algorithm, in order to improve their response against earthquake actions. Successful application of the algorithm requires judicious placement of the closed-loop eigenvalues from the part of the designer. The pole placement algorithm was widely applied to control mechanical systems. In this paper, a modification in the mathematical background of the algorithm in order to be suitable for civil fixed structures is primarily presented. The proposed approach is demonstrated by numerical simulations for the control of both single and multi-degree of freedom systems subjected to seismic actions. Numerical results have shown that the control algorithm is efficient in reducing the response of building structures, with small amount of required control forces.

  2. Numerical study of the unstable MHD spectrum of a small aspect ratio, flat current, non-circular tokamak

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Berger, D.; Bernard, L.C.; Gruber, R.; Troyon, F.

    1980-01-01

    The Lausanne ideal MHD stability code ERATO is used to investigate spectral properties of Solovev's equilibrium at small aspect ratios. Two different elongations are considered. Both free and rigid boundary models are computed and compared. Modes characterized by a large radial extension have been found which appear to be due to coupling of m=1 and m=2 modes due to toricity. The internal modes spectrum is compared with the predictions of the full Mercier criterion, taking into account its spatial dependence, and with the ballooning modes stability criterion. (Auth.)

  3. Landslides triggered by the 1946 Ancash earthquake, Peru

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kampherm, T. S.; Evans, S. G.; Valderrama Murillo, P.

    2009-04-01

    The 1946 M7.3 Ancash Earthquake triggered a large number of landslides in an epicentral area that straddled the Continental Divide of South America in the Andes of Peru. A small number of landslides were described in reconnaissance reports by E. Silgado and Arnold Heim published shortly after the earthquake, but further details of the landslides triggered by the earthquake have not been reported since. Utilising field traverses, aerial photograph interpretation and GIS, our study mapped 45 landslides inferred to have been triggered by the event. 83% were rock avalanches involving Cretaceous limestones interbedded with shales. The five largest rock/debris avalanches occurred at Rio Llama (est. vol. 37 M m3), Suytucocha (est. vol., 13.5 Mm3), Quiches (est. vol. 10.5 Mm3 ), Pelagatos (est. vol. 8 Mm3), and Shundoy (est. vol. 8 Mm3). The Suytucocha, Quiches, and Pelagatos landslides were reported by Silgado and Heim. Rock slope failure was most common on slopes with a southwest aspect, an orientation corresponding to the regional dip direction of major planar structures in the Andean foreland belt (bedding planes and thrust faults). In valleys oriented transverse to the NW-SE structural grain of the epicentral area, south-westerly dipping bedding planes combined with orthogonal joint sets to form numerous wedge failures. Many initial rock slope failures were transformed into rock/debris avalanches by the entrainment of colluvium in their path. At Acobamba, a rock avalanche that transformed into a debris avalanche (est. vol. 4.3 Mm3) overwhelmed a village resulting in the deaths of 217 people. The cumulative volume-frequency plot shows a strong power law relation below a marked rollover, similar in form to that derived for landslides triggered by the 1994 Northridge Earthquake. The total volume of the 45 landslides is approximately 93 Mm3. The data point for the Ancash Earthquake plots near the regression line calculated by Keefer (1994), and modified by Malamud et al

  4. Impact of the Christchurch earthquakes on hospital staff.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tovaranonte, Pleayo; Cawood, Tom J

    2013-06-01

    On September 4, 2010 a major earthquake caused widespread damage, but no loss of life, to Christchurch city and surrounding areas. There were numerous aftershocks, including on February 22, 2011 which, in contrast, caused substantial loss of life and major damage to the city. The research aim was to assess how these two earthquakes affected the staff in the General Medicine Department at Christchurch Hospital. Problem To date there have been no published data assessing the impact of this type of natural disaster on hospital staff in Australasia. A questionnaire that examined seven domains (demographics, personal impact, psychological impact, emotional impact, impact on care for patients, work impact, and coping strategies) was handed out to General Medicine staff and students nine days after the September 2010 earthquake and 14 days after the February 2011 earthquake. Response rates were ≥ 99%. Sixty percent of responders were earthquakes, respectively. A fifth to a third of people had to find an alternative route of transport to get to work but only eight percent to 18% took time off work. Financial impact was more severe following the February earthquake, with 46% reporting damage of >NZ $1,000, compared with 15% following the September earthquake (P earthquake than the September earthquake (42% vs 69%, P earthquake but this rose to 53% after the February earthquake (12/53 vs 45/85, P earthquake but this dropped significantly to 15% following the February earthquake (27/53 vs 13/62, P earthquakes upon General Medicine hospital staff. The effect was widespread with minor financial impact during the first but much more during the second earthquake. Moderate psychological impact was experienced in both earthquakes. This data may be useful to help prepare plans for future natural disasters. .

  5. Numerical study of a gridded E-GUN with a very small cathode-grid distance (150 {mu}m) using EGN2

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ronsivalle, C. [ENEA, Centro Ricerche Frascati, Rome (Italy). Dip. Innovazione

    1997-01-01

    A numerical study of a triode gun with a very small cathode-grid distance (150 {mu}m) which allows to evaluate with great accuracy the effect of the grid and of the temperature on the final beam emittance is presented. The simulation uses a modified version of the bidimensional code EGUN for PC that simulates the grid with a set of concentric rings and allows to define several regions of different mesh size, providing the way to connect results between adjacent regions. The calculation procedure is described in detail together with the results of the simulation for different values of the grid potential.

  6. Numerical exploration of non-axisymmetric divertor closure in the small angle slot (SAS) divertor at DIII-D

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frerichs, Heinke; Schmitz, Oliver; Covele, Brent; Guo, Houyang; Hill, David; Feng, Yuhe

    2017-10-01

    In the Small Angle Slot (SAS) divertor in DIII-D, the combination of misaligned slot structure and non-axisymmetric perturbations to the magnetic field causes the strike point to vary radially along the divertor slot and even leave it at some toroidal locations. This effect essentially introduces an opening in the divertor slot from where recycling neutrals can easily escape, and thereby degrade performance of the slot divertor. This effect has been approximated by a finite gap in the divertor baffle. Simulations with EMC3-EIRENE show that a toroidally localized loss of divertor closure can result in non-axisymmetric divertor densities and temperatures. This introduces a density window of 10-15% on top of the nominal threshold separatrix density during which a non-axisymmetric onset of local detachment occurs, initially leaving the gap and up to 60 deg beyond that still attached. Conversely, the impact of such toroidally localized divertor perturbations on the toroidal symmetry of midplane separatrix conditions is small. This work has been funded by the U.S. Department of Energy under Early Career Award Grant DE-SC0013911, and Grant DE-FC02-04ER54698.

  7. Modeling fast and slow earthquakes at various scales.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ide, Satoshi

    2014-01-01

    Earthquake sources represent dynamic rupture within rocky materials at depth and often can be modeled as propagating shear slip controlled by friction laws. These laws provide boundary conditions on fault planes embedded in elastic media. Recent developments in observation networks, laboratory experiments, and methods of data analysis have expanded our knowledge of the physics of earthquakes. Newly discovered slow earthquakes are qualitatively different phenomena from ordinary fast earthquakes and provide independent information on slow deformation at depth. Many numerical simulations have been carried out to model both fast and slow earthquakes, but problems remain, especially with scaling laws. Some mechanisms are required to explain the power-law nature of earthquake rupture and the lack of characteristic length. Conceptual models that include a hierarchical structure over a wide range of scales would be helpful for characterizing diverse behavior in different seismic regions and for improving probabilistic forecasts of earthquakes.

  8. Experimental and numerical study on density stratification erosion phenomena with a vertical buoyant jet in a small vessel

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Abe, Satoshi, E-mail: abe.satoshi@jaea.go.jp; Ishigaki, Masahiro; Sibamoto, Yasuteru; Yonomoto, Taisuke

    2016-07-15

    Highlights: • This paper shows results of a small scale experiment and CFD analyses on a density stratification erosion with a vertical buoyant jet. • The particle image velocimetry (PIV) and quadrupole mass spectrometer (QMS) with a multiport rotating valve were applied. • Two typical well-used RANS models were applied. • The simulated stratification erosion was in agreement with the experimental result, which suggested that the turbulence mixing occurred only in the jet impinging region. - Abstract: The Japan Atomic Energy Agency (JAEA) has started the ROSA-SA project to investigate thermal hydraulic phenomena in a reactor containment vessel during a severe accident. The hydrogen distribution in the vessel is one of significant safety issues in discussing a potential of hydrogen combustion in the containment. Density stratification and its break-up are important phenomena affecting the hydrogen distribution. This paper focuses on a density stratification erosion and break-up mechanism with a vertical buoyant jet promoting the turbulent helium transport. Small scale experiment and computational fluid dynamics (CFD) analyses were carried out for investigating this phenomena. In the experiment, a rectangular vessel made with acrylic plates with a width of 1.5 m, a length of 1.5 m and a height of 1.8 m was used for visualizing flow field with particle image velocimetry (PIV) system. The quadrupole mass spectrometer (QMS) system with a multiport rotating valve was applied for measuring gaseous concentration at 20 elevation points. In CFD analysis with OpenFOAM, two typical well-used turbulence models were used: low-Reynolds number type k–ε model and SST k–ω model, with a turbulence model modification to consider the buoyant effect in the stratification. As a result, the stratification erosion in the CFD analyses with the modified turbulence model agreed well with the experimental data, indicating importance of the turbulence damping by the buoyant effect.

  9. Experimental and numerical study on density stratification erosion phenomena with a vertical buoyant jet in a small vessel

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abe, Satoshi; Ishigaki, Masahiro; Sibamoto, Yasuteru; Yonomoto, Taisuke

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • This paper shows results of a small scale experiment and CFD analyses on a density stratification erosion with a vertical buoyant jet. • The particle image velocimetry (PIV) and quadrupole mass spectrometer (QMS) with a multiport rotating valve were applied. • Two typical well-used RANS models were applied. • The simulated stratification erosion was in agreement with the experimental result, which suggested that the turbulence mixing occurred only in the jet impinging region. - Abstract: The Japan Atomic Energy Agency (JAEA) has started the ROSA-SA project to investigate thermal hydraulic phenomena in a reactor containment vessel during a severe accident. The hydrogen distribution in the vessel is one of significant safety issues in discussing a potential of hydrogen combustion in the containment. Density stratification and its break-up are important phenomena affecting the hydrogen distribution. This paper focuses on a density stratification erosion and break-up mechanism with a vertical buoyant jet promoting the turbulent helium transport. Small scale experiment and computational fluid dynamics (CFD) analyses were carried out for investigating this phenomena. In the experiment, a rectangular vessel made with acrylic plates with a width of 1.5 m, a length of 1.5 m and a height of 1.8 m was used for visualizing flow field with particle image velocimetry (PIV) system. The quadrupole mass spectrometer (QMS) system with a multiport rotating valve was applied for measuring gaseous concentration at 20 elevation points. In CFD analysis with OpenFOAM, two typical well-used turbulence models were used: low-Reynolds number type k–ε model and SST k–ω model, with a turbulence model modification to consider the buoyant effect in the stratification. As a result, the stratification erosion in the CFD analyses with the modified turbulence model agreed well with the experimental data, indicating importance of the turbulence damping by the buoyant effect.

  10. Earthquake Strong Ground Motion Scenario at the 2008 Olympic Games Sites, Beijing, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, L.; Rohrbach, E. A.; Chen, Q.; Chen, Y.

    2006-12-01

    Historic earthquake record indicates mediate to strong earthquakes have been frequently hit greater Beijing metropolitan area where is going to host the 2008 summer Olympic Games. For the readiness preparation of emergency response to the earthquake shaking for a mega event in a mega city like Beijing in summer 2008, this paper tries to construct the strong ground motion scenario at a number of gymnasium sites for the 2008 Olympic Games. During the last 500 years (the Ming and Qing Dynasties) in which the historic earthquake record are thorough and complete, there are at least 12 earthquake events with the maximum intensity of VI or greater occurred within 100 km radius centered at the Tiananmen Square, the center of Beijing City. Numerical simulation of the seismic wave propagation and surface strong ground motion is carried out by the pseudospectral time domain methods with viscoelastic material properties. To improve the modeling efficiency and accuracy, a multi-scale approach is adapted: the seismic wave propagation originated from an earthquake rupture source is first simulated by a model with larger physical domain with coarser grids. Then the wavefield at a given plane is taken as the source input for the small-scale, fine grid model for the strong ground motion study at the sites. The earthquake source rupture scenario is based on two particular historic earthquake events: One is the Great 1679 Sanhe-Pinggu Earthquake (M~8, Maximum Intensity XI at the epicenter and Intensity VIII in city center)) whose epicenter is about 60 km ENE of the city center. The other one is the 1730 Haidian Earthquake (M~6, Maximum Intensity IX at the epicenter and Intensity VIII in city center) with the epicentral distance less than 20 km away from the city center in the NW Haidian District. The exist of the thick Tertiary-Quaternary sediments (maximum thickness ~ 2 km) in Beijing area plays a critical role on estimating the surface ground motion at the Olympic Games sites, which

  11. Fault geometry and earthquake mechanics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. J. Andrews

    1994-06-01

    volume increment for a given slip increment becomes larger. A juction with past accumulated slip ??0 is a strong barrier to earthquakes with maximum slip um < 2 (P/µ u0 = u0/50. As slip continues to occur elsewhere in the fault system, a stress concentration will grow at the old junction. A fresh fracture may occur in the stress concentration, establishing a new triple junction, and allowing continuity of slip in the fault system. The fresh fracture could provide the instability needed to explain earthquakes. Perhaps a small fraction (on the order of P/µ of the surface that slips in any earthquake is fresh fracture. Stress drop occurs only on this small fraction of the rupture surface, the asperities. Strain change in the asperities is on the order of P/µ. Therefore this model predicts average strais change in an earthquake to be on the order of (P/µ2 = 0.0001, as is observed.

  12. Parallel Earthquake Simulations on Large-Scale Multicore Supercomputers

    KAUST Repository

    Wu, Xingfu

    2011-01-01

    Earthquakes are one of the most destructive natural hazards on our planet Earth. Hugh earthquakes striking offshore may cause devastating tsunamis, as evidenced by the 11 March 2011 Japan (moment magnitude Mw9.0) and the 26 December 2004 Sumatra (Mw9.1) earthquakes. Earthquake prediction (in terms of the precise time, place, and magnitude of a coming earthquake) is arguably unfeasible in the foreseeable future. To mitigate seismic hazards from future earthquakes in earthquake-prone areas, such as California and Japan, scientists have been using numerical simulations to study earthquake rupture propagation along faults and seismic wave propagation in the surrounding media on ever-advancing modern computers over past several decades. In particular, ground motion simulations for past and future (possible) significant earthquakes have been performed to understand factors that affect ground shaking in populated areas, and to provide ground shaking characteristics and synthetic seismograms for emergency preparation and design of earthquake-resistant structures. These simulation results can guide the development of more rational seismic provisions for leading to safer, more efficient, and economical50pt]Please provide V. Taylor author e-mail ID. structures in earthquake-prone regions.

  13. Strong motion duration and earthquake magnitude relationships

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Salmon, M.W.; Short, S.A.; Kennedy, R.P.

    1992-06-01

    Earthquake duration is the total time of ground shaking from the arrival of seismic waves until the return to ambient conditions. Much of this time is at relatively low shaking levels which have little effect on seismic structural response and on earthquake damage potential. As a result, a parameter termed ''strong motion duration'' has been defined by a number of investigators to be used for the purpose of evaluating seismic response and assessing the potential for structural damage due to earthquakes. This report presents methods for determining strong motion duration and a time history envelope function appropriate for various evaluation purposes, for earthquake magnitude and distance, and for site soil properties. There are numerous definitions of strong motion duration. For most of these definitions, empirical studies have been completed which relate duration to earthquake magnitude and distance and to site soil properties. Each of these definitions recognizes that only the portion of an earthquake record which has sufficiently high acceleration amplitude, energy content, or some other parameters significantly affects seismic response. Studies have been performed which indicate that the portion of an earthquake record in which the power (average rate of energy input) is maximum correlates most closely with potential damage to stiff nuclear power plant structures. Hence, this report will concentrate on energy based strong motion duration definitions

  14. Studies of the subsurface effects of earthquakes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marine, I.W.

    1980-01-01

    As part of the National Terminal Waste Storage Program, the Savannah River Laboratory is conducting a series of studies on the subsurface effects of earthquakes. This report summarizes three subcontracted studies. (1) Earthquake damage to underground facilities: the purpose of this study was to document damage and nondamage caused by earthquakes to tunnels and shallow underground openings; to mines and other deep openings; and to wells, shafts, and other vertical facilities. (2) Earthquake related displacement fields near underground facilities: the study included an analysis of block motion, an analysis of the dependence of displacement on the orientation and distance of joints from the earthquake source, and displacement related to distance and depth near a causative fault as a result of various shapes, depths, and senses of movement on the causative fault. (3) Numerical simulation of earthquake effects on tunnels for generic nuclear waste repositories: the objective of this study was to use numerical modeling to determine under what conditions seismic waves might cause instability of an underground opening or create fracturing that would increase the permeability of the rock mass

  15. Earthquakes: hydrogeochemical precursors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ingebritsen, Steven E.; Manga, Michael

    2014-01-01

    Earthquake prediction is a long-sought goal. Changes in groundwater chemistry before earthquakes in Iceland highlight a potential hydrogeochemical precursor, but such signals must be evaluated in the context of long-term, multiparametric data sets.

  16. Ground water and earthquakes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ts' ai, T H

    1977-11-01

    Chinese folk wisdom has long seen a relationship between ground water and earthquakes. Before an earthquake there is often an unusual change in the ground water level and volume of flow. Changes in the amount of particulate matter in ground water as well as changes in color, bubbling, gas emission, and noises and geysers are also often observed before earthquakes. Analysis of these features can help predict earthquakes. Other factors unrelated to earthquakes can cause some of these changes, too. As a first step it is necessary to find sites which are sensitive to changes in ground stress to be used as sensor points for predicting earthquakes. The necessary features are described. Recording of seismic waves of earthquake aftershocks is also an important part of earthquake predictions.

  17. Ionospheric earthquake precursors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bulachenko, A.L.; Oraevskij, V.N.; Pokhotelov, O.A.; Sorokin, V.N.; Strakhov, V.N.; Chmyrev, V.M.

    1996-01-01

    Results of experimental study on ionospheric earthquake precursors, program development on processes in the earthquake focus and physical mechanisms of formation of various type precursors are considered. Composition of experimental cosmic system for earthquake precursors monitoring is determined. 36 refs., 5 figs

  18. Children's Ideas about Earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simsek, Canan Lacin

    2007-01-01

    Earthquake, a natural disaster, is among the fundamental problems of many countries. If people know how to protect themselves from earthquake and arrange their life styles in compliance with this, damage they will suffer will reduce to that extent. In particular, a good training regarding earthquake to be received in primary schools is considered…

  19. Remote Triggering of the Mw 6.9 Hokkaido Earthquake as a Result of the Mw 6.6 Indonesian Earthquake on September 11, 2008

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cheng-Horng Lin

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Only just recently, the phenomenon of earthquakes being triggered by a distant earthquake has been well established. Yet, most of the triggered earthquakes have been limited to small earthquakes (M < 3. Also, the exact triggering mechanism for earthquakes is still not clear. Here I show how one strong earthquake (Mw = 6.6 is capable of triggering another (Mw = 6.9 at a remote distance (~4750 km. On September 11, 2008, two strong earthquakes with magnitudes (Mw of 6.6 and 6.9 hit respectively in Indonesia and Japan within a short interval of ~21 minutes time. Careful examination of broadband seismograms recorded in Japan shows that the Hokkaido earthquake occurred just as the surface waves generated by the Indonesia earthquake arrived. Although the peak dynamic stress estimated at the focus of the Hokkaido earthquake was just reaching the lower bound for the capability of triggering earthquakes in general, a more plausible mechanism for triggering an earthquake might be attributed to the change of a fault property by fluid infiltration. These observations suggest that the Hokkaido earthquake was likely triggered from a remote distance by the surface waves generated from the Indonesia earthquake. If some more cases can be observed, a temporal warning of possible interaction between strong earthquakes might be concerned in the future.

  20. Earthquake location in island arcs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Engdahl, E.R.; Dewey, J.W.; Fujita, K.

    1982-01-01

    A comprehensive data set of selected teleseismic P-wave arrivals and local-network P- and S-wave arrivals from large earthquakes occurring at all depths within a small section of the central Aleutians is used to examine the general problem of earthquake location in island arcs. Reference hypocenters for this special data set are determined for shallow earthquakes from local-network data and for deep earthquakes from combined local and teleseismic data by joint inversion for structure and location. The high-velocity lithospheric slab beneath the central Aleutians may displace hypocenters that are located using spherically symmetric Earth models; the amount of displacement depends on the position of the earthquakes with respect to the slab and on whether local or teleseismic data are used to locate the earthquakes. Hypocenters for trench and intermediate-depth events appear to be minimally biased by the effects of slab structure on rays to teleseismic stations. However, locations of intermediate-depth events based on only local data are systematically displaced southwards, the magnitude of the displacement being proportional to depth. Shallow-focus events along the main thrust zone, although well located using only local-network data, are severely shifted northwards and deeper, with displacements as large as 50 km, by slab effects on teleseismic travel times. Hypocenters determined by a method that utilizes seismic ray tracing through a three-dimensional velocity model of the subduction zone, derived by thermal modeling, are compared to results obtained by the method of joint hypocenter determination (JHD) that formally assumes a laterally homogeneous velocity model over the source region and treats all raypath anomalies as constant station corrections to the travel-time curve. The ray-tracing method has the theoretical advantage that it accounts for variations in travel-time anomalies within a group of events distributed over a sizable region of a dipping, high

  1. Megathrust earthquakes in Central Chile: What is next after the Maule 2010 earthquake?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Madariaga, R.

    2013-05-01

    The 27 February 2010 Maule earthquake occurred in a well identified gap in the Chilean subduction zone. The event has now been studied in detail using both far-field, near field seismic and geodetic data, we will review this information gathered so far. The event broke a region that was much longer along strike than the gap left over from the 1835 Concepcion earthquake, sometimes called the Darwin earthquake because he was in the area when the earthquake occurred and made many observations. Recent studies of contemporary documents by Udias et al indicate that the area broken by the Maule earthquake in 2010 had previously broken by a similar earthquake in 1751, but several events in the magnitude 8 range occurred in the area principally in 1835 already mentioned and, more recently on 1 December 1928 to the North and on 21 May 1960 (1 1/2 days before the big Chilean earthquake of 1960). Currently the area of the 2010 earthquake and the region immediately to the North is undergoing a very large increase in seismicity with numerous clusters of seismicity that move along the plate interface. Examination of the seismicity of Chile of the 18th and 19th century show that the region immediately to the North of the 2010 earthquake broke in a very large megathrust event in July 1730. this is the largest known earthquake in central Chile. The region where this event occurred has broken in many occasions with M 8 range earthquakes in 1822, 1880, 1906, 1971 and 1985. Is it preparing for a new very large megathrust event? The 1906 earthquake of Mw 8.3 filled the central part of the gap but it has broken again on several occasions in 1971, 1973 and 1985. The main question is whether the 1906 earthquake relieved enough stresses from the 1730 rupture zone. Geodetic data shows that most of the region that broke in 1730 is currently almost fully locked from the northern end of the Maule earthquake at 34.5°S to 30°S, near the southern end of the of the Mw 8.5 Atacama earthquake of 11

  2. Using Smartphones to Detect Earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kong, Q.; Allen, R. M.

    2012-12-01

    We are using the accelerometers in smartphones to record earthquakes. In the future, these smartphones may work as a supplement network to the current traditional network for scientific research and real-time applications. Given the potential number of smartphones, and small separation of sensors, this new type of seismic dataset has significant potential provides that the signal can be separated from the noise. We developed an application for android phones to record the acceleration in real time. These records can be saved on the local phone or transmitted back to a server in real time. The accelerometers in the phones were evaluated by comparing performance with a high quality accelerometer while located on controlled shake tables for a variety of tests. The results show that the accelerometer in the smartphone can reproduce the characteristic of the shaking very well, even the phone left freely on the shake table. The nature of these datasets is also quite different from traditional networks due to the fact that smartphones are moving around with their owners. Therefore, we must distinguish earthquake signals from other daily use. In addition to the shake table tests that accumulated earthquake records, we also recorded different human activities such as running, walking, driving etc. An artificial neural network based approach was developed to distinguish these different records. It shows a 99.7% successful rate of distinguishing earthquakes from the other typical human activities in our database. We are now at the stage ready to develop the basic infrastructure for a smartphone seismic network.

  3. Earthquake lights and rupture processes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. V. Losseva

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available A physical model of earthquake lights is proposed. It is suggested that the magnetic diffusion from the electric and magnetic fields source region is a dominant process, explaining rather high localization of the light flashes. A 3D numerical code allowing to take into account the arbitrary distribution of currents caused by ground motion, conductivity in the ground and at its surface, including the existence of sea water above the epicenter or (and near the ruptured segments of the fault have been developed. Simulations for the 1995 Kobe earthquake were conducted taking into account the existence of sea water with realistic geometry of shores. The results do not contradict the eyewitness reports and scarce measurements of the electric and magnetic fields at large distances from the epicenter.

  4. Parallel Earthquake Simulations on Large-Scale Multicore Supercomputers

    KAUST Repository

    Wu, Xingfu; Duan, Benchun; Taylor, Valerie

    2011-01-01

    , such as California and Japan, scientists have been using numerical simulations to study earthquake rupture propagation along faults and seismic wave propagation in the surrounding media on ever-advancing modern computers over past several decades. In particular

  5. Crowdsourced earthquake early warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Minson, Sarah E.; Brooks, Benjamin A.; Glennie, Craig L.; Murray, Jessica R.; Langbein, John O.; Owen, Susan E.; Heaton, Thomas H.; Iannucci, Robert A.; Hauser, Darren L.

    2015-01-01

    Earthquake early warning (EEW) can reduce harm to people and infrastructure from earthquakes and tsunamis, but it has not been implemented in most high earthquake-risk regions because of prohibitive cost. Common consumer devices such as smartphones contain low-cost versions of the sensors used in EEW. Although less accurate than scientific-grade instruments, these sensors are globally ubiquitous. Through controlled tests of consumer devices, simulation of an Mw (moment magnitude) 7 earthquake on California’s Hayward fault, and real data from the Mw 9 Tohoku-oki earthquake, we demonstrate that EEW could be achieved via crowdsourcing.

  6. Earthquake Warning Performance in Vallejo for the South Napa Earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wurman, G.; Price, M.

    2014-12-01

    In 2002 and 2003, Seismic Warning Systems, Inc. installed first-generation QuakeGuardTM earthquake warning devices at all eight fire stations in Vallejo, CA. These devices are designed to detect the P-wave of an earthquake and initiate predetermined protective actions if the impending shaking is estimated at approximately Modifed Mercalli Intensity V or greater. At the Vallejo fire stations the devices were set up to sound an audio alert over the public address system and to command the equipment bay doors to open. In August 2014, after more than 11 years of operating in the fire stations with no false alarms, the five units that were still in use triggered correctly on the MW 6.0 South Napa earthquake, less than 16 km away. The audio alert sounded in all five stations, providing fire fighters with 1.5 to 2.5 seconds of warning before the arrival of the S-wave, and the equipment bay doors opened in three of the stations. In one station the doors were disconnected from the QuakeGuard device, and another station lost power before the doors opened completely. These problems highlight just a small portion of the complexity associated with realizing actionable earthquake warnings. The issues experienced in this earthquake have already been addressed in subsequent QuakeGuard product generations, with downstream connection monitoring and backup power for critical systems. The fact that the fire fighters in Vallejo were afforded even two seconds of warning at these epicentral distances results from the design of the QuakeGuard devices, which focuses on rapid false positive rejection and ground motion estimates. We discuss the performance of the ground motion estimation algorithms, with an emphasis on the accuracy and timeliness of the estimates at close epicentral distances.

  7. Earthquake forecasting and warning

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rikitake, T.

    1983-01-01

    This review briefly describes two other books on the same subject either written or partially written by Rikitake. In this book, the status of earthquake prediction efforts in Japan, China, the Soviet Union, and the United States are updated. An overview of some of the organizational, legal, and societal aspects of earthquake prediction in these countries is presented, and scientific findings of precursory phenomena are included. A summary of circumstances surrounding the 1975 Haicheng earthquake, the 1978 Tangshan earthquake, and the 1976 Songpan-Pingwu earthquake (all magnitudes = 7.0) in China and the 1978 Izu-Oshima earthquake in Japan is presented. This book fails to comprehensively summarize recent advances in earthquake prediction research.

  8. Temporal stress changes caused by earthquakes: A review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hardebeck, Jeanne L.; Okada, Tomomi

    2018-01-01

    Earthquakes can change the stress field in the Earth’s lithosphere as they relieve and redistribute stress. Earthquake-induced stress changes have been observed as temporal rotations of the principal stress axes following major earthquakes in a variety of tectonic settings. The stress changes due to the 2011 Mw9.0 Tohoku-Oki, Japan, earthquake were particularly well documented. Earthquake stress rotations can inform our understanding of earthquake physics, most notably addressing the long-standing problem of whether the Earth’s crust at plate boundaries is “strong” or “weak.” Many of the observed stress rotations, including that due to the Tohoku-Oki earthquake, indicate near-complete stress drop in the mainshock. This implies low background differential stress, on the order of earthquake stress drop, supporting the weak crust model. Earthquake stress rotations can also be used to address other important geophysical questions, such as the level of crustal stress heterogeneity and the mechanisms of postseismic stress reloading. The quantitative interpretation of stress rotations is evolving from those based on simple analytical methods to those based on more sophisticated numerical modeling that can capture the spatial-temporal complexity of the earthquake stress changes.

  9. Shallow moonquakes - How they compare with earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nakamura, Y.

    1980-01-01

    Of three types of moonquakes strong enough to be detectable at large distances - deep moonquakes, meteoroid impacts and shallow moonquakes - only shallow moonquakes are similar in nature to earthquakes. A comparison of various characteristics of moonquakes with those of earthquakes indeed shows a remarkable similarity between shallow moonquakes and intraplate earthquakes: (1) their occurrences are not controlled by tides; (2) they appear to occur in locations where there is evidence of structural weaknesses; (3) the relative abundances of small and large quakes (b-values) are similar, suggesting similar mechanisms; and (4) even the levels of activity may be close. The shallow moonquakes may be quite comparable in nature to intraplate earthquakes, and they may be of similar origin.

  10. Automatic Earthquake Detection by Active Learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bergen, K.; Beroza, G. C.

    2017-12-01

    In recent years, advances in machine learning have transformed fields such as image recognition, natural language processing and recommender systems. Many of these performance gains have relied on the availability of large, labeled data sets to train high-accuracy models; labeled data sets are those for which each sample includes a target class label, such as waveforms tagged as either earthquakes or noise. Earthquake seismologists are increasingly leveraging machine learning and data mining techniques to detect and analyze weak earthquake signals in large seismic data sets. One of the challenges in applying machine learning to seismic data sets is the limited labeled data problem; learning algorithms need to be given examples of earthquake waveforms, but the number of known events, taken from earthquake catalogs, may be insufficient to build an accurate detector. Furthermore, earthquake catalogs are known to be incomplete, resulting in training data that may be biased towards larger events and contain inaccurate labels. This challenge is compounded by the class imbalance problem; the events of interest, earthquakes, are infrequent relative to noise in continuous data sets, and many learning algorithms perform poorly on rare classes. In this work, we investigate the use of active learning for automatic earthquake detection. Active learning is a type of semi-supervised machine learning that uses a human-in-the-loop approach to strategically supplement a small initial training set. The learning algorithm incorporates domain expertise through interaction between a human expert and the algorithm, with the algorithm actively posing queries to the user to improve detection performance. We demonstrate the potential of active machine learning to improve earthquake detection performance with limited available training data.

  11. Dynamic Evolution Of Off-Fault Medium During An Earthquake: A Micromechanics Based Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, Marion Y.; Bhat, Harsha S.

    2018-05-01

    Geophysical observations show a dramatic drop of seismic wave speeds in the shallow off-fault medium following earthquake ruptures. Seismic ruptures generate, or reactivate, damage around faults that alter the constitutive response of the surrounding medium, which in turn modifies the earthquake itself, the seismic radiation, and the near-fault ground motion. We present a micromechanics based constitutive model that accounts for dynamic evolution of elastic moduli at high-strain rates. We consider 2D in-plane models, with a 1D right lateral fault featuring slip-weakening friction law. The two scenarios studied here assume uniform initial off-fault damage and an observationally motivated exponential decay of initial damage with fault normal distance. Both scenarios produce dynamic damage that is consistent with geological observations. A small difference in initial damage actively impacts the final damage pattern. The second numerical experiment, in particular, highlights the complex feedback that exists between the evolving medium and the seismic event. We show that there is a unique off-fault damage pattern associated with supershear transition of an earthquake rupture that could be potentially seen as a geological signature of this transition. These scenarios presented here underline the importance of incorporating the complex structure of fault zone systems in dynamic models of earthquakes.

  12. Dynamic Evolution Of Off-Fault Medium During An Earthquake: A Micromechanics Based Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, M. Y.; Bhat, H. S.

    2017-12-01

    Geophysical observations show a dramatic drop of seismic wave speeds in the shallow off-fault medium following earthquake ruptures. Seismic ruptures generate, or reactivate, damage around faults that alter the constitutive response of the surrounding medium, which in turn modifies the earthquake itself, the seismic radiation, and the near-fault ground motion. We present a micromechanics based constitutive model that accounts for dynamic evolution of elastic moduli at high-strain rates. We consider 2D in-plane models, with a 1D right lateral fault featuring slip-weakening friction law. The two scenarios studied here assume uniform initial off-fault damage and an observationally motivated exponential decay of initial damage with fault normal distance. Both scenarios produce dynamic damage that is consistent with geological observations. A small difference in initial damage actively impacts the final damage pattern. The second numerical experiment, in particular, highlights the complex feedback that exists between the evolving medium and the seismic event. We show that there is a unique off-fault damage pattern associated with supershear transition of an earthquake rupture that could be potentially seen as a geological signature of this transition. These scenarios presented here underline the importance of incorporating the complex structure of fault zone systems in dynamic models of earthquakes.

  13. Metrics for comparing dynamic earthquake rupture simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barall, Michael; Harris, Ruth A.

    2014-01-01

    Earthquakes are complex events that involve a myriad of interactions among multiple geologic features and processes. One of the tools that is available to assist with their study is computer simulation, particularly dynamic rupture simulation. A dynamic rupture simulation is a numerical model of the physical processes that occur during an earthquake. Starting with the fault geometry, friction constitutive law, initial stress conditions, and assumptions about the condition and response of the near‐fault rocks, a dynamic earthquake rupture simulation calculates the evolution of fault slip and stress over time as part of the elastodynamic numerical solution (Ⓔ see the simulation description in the electronic supplement to this article). The complexity of the computations in a dynamic rupture simulation make it challenging to verify that the computer code is operating as intended, because there are no exact analytic solutions against which these codes’ results can be directly compared. One approach for checking if dynamic rupture computer codes are working satisfactorily is to compare each code’s results with the results of other dynamic rupture codes running the same earthquake simulation benchmark. To perform such a comparison consistently, it is necessary to have quantitative metrics. In this paper, we present a new method for quantitatively comparing the results of dynamic earthquake rupture computer simulation codes.

  14. Overestimation of the earthquake hazard along the Himalaya: constraints in bracketing of medieval earthquakes from paleoseismic studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arora, Shreya; Malik, Javed N.

    2017-12-01

    The Himalaya is one of the most seismically active regions of the world. The occurrence of several large magnitude earthquakes viz. 1905 Kangra earthquake (Mw 7.8), 1934 Bihar-Nepal earthquake (Mw 8.2), 1950 Assam earthquake (Mw 8.4), 2005 Kashmir (Mw 7.6), and 2015 Gorkha (Mw 7.8) are the testimony to ongoing tectonic activity. In the last few decades, tremendous efforts have been made along the Himalayan arc to understand the patterns of earthquake occurrences, size, extent, and return periods. Some of the large magnitude earthquakes produced surface rupture, while some remained blind. Furthermore, due to the incompleteness of the earthquake catalogue, a very few events can be correlated with medieval earthquakes. Based on the existing paleoseismic data certainly, there exists a complexity to precisely determine the extent of surface rupture of these earthquakes and also for those events, which occurred during historic times. In this paper, we have compiled the paleo-seismological data and recalibrated the radiocarbon ages from the trenches excavated by previous workers along the entire Himalaya and compared earthquake scenario with the past. Our studies suggest that there were multiple earthquake events with overlapping surface ruptures in small patches with an average rupture length of 300 km limiting Mw 7.8-8.0 for the Himalayan arc, rather than two or three giant earthquakes rupturing the whole front. It has been identified that the large magnitude Himalayan earthquakes, such as 1905 Kangra, 1934 Bihar-Nepal, and 1950 Assam, that have occurred within a time frame of 45 years. Now, if these events are dated, there is a high possibility that within the range of ±50 years, they may be considered as the remnant of one giant earthquake rupturing the entire Himalayan arc. Therefore, leading to an overestimation of seismic hazard scenario in Himalaya.

  15. Exploring Earthquakes in Real-Time

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bravo, T. K.; Kafka, A. L.; Coleman, B.; Taber, J. J.

    2013-12-01

    Earthquakes capture the attention of students and inspire them to explore the Earth. Adding the ability to view and explore recordings of significant and newsworthy earthquakes in real-time makes the subject even more compelling. To address this opportunity, the Incorporated Research Institutions for Seismology (IRIS), in collaboration with Moravian College, developed ';jAmaSeis', a cross-platform application that enables students to access real-time earthquake waveform data. Students can watch as the seismic waves are recorded on their computer, and can be among the first to analyze the data from an earthquake. jAmaSeis facilitates student centered investigations of seismological concepts using either a low-cost educational seismograph or streamed data from other educational seismographs or from any seismic station that sends data to the IRIS Data Management System. After an earthquake, students can analyze the seismograms to determine characteristics of earthquakes such as time of occurrence, distance from the epicenter to the station, magnitude, and location. The software has been designed to provide graphical clues to guide students in the analysis and assist in their interpretations. Since jAmaSeis can simultaneously record up to three stations from anywhere on the planet, there are numerous opportunities for student driven investigations. For example, students can explore differences in the seismograms from different distances from an earthquake and compare waveforms from different azimuthal directions. Students can simultaneously monitor seismicity at a tectonic plate boundary and in the middle of the plate regardless of their school location. This can help students discover for themselves the ideas underlying seismic wave propagation, regional earthquake hazards, magnitude-frequency relationships, and the details of plate tectonics. The real-time nature of the data keeps the investigations dynamic, and offers students countless opportunities to explore.

  16. Retrospective stress-forecasting of earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Yuan; Crampin, Stuart

    2015-04-01

    Observations of changes in azimuthally varying shear-wave splitting (SWS) above swarms of small earthquakes monitor stress-induced changes to the stress-aligned vertical microcracks pervading the upper crust, lower crust, and uppermost ~400km of the mantle. (The microcracks are intergranular films of hydrolysed melt in the mantle.) Earthquakes release stress, and an appropriate amount of stress for the relevant magnitude must accumulate before each event. Iceland is on an extension of the Mid-Atlantic Ridge, where two transform zones, uniquely run onshore. These onshore transform zones provide semi-continuous swarms of small earthquakes, which are the only place worldwide where SWS can be routinely monitored. Elsewhere SWS must be monitored above temporally-active occasional swarms of small earthquakes, or in infrequent SKS and other teleseismic reflections from the mantle. Observations of changes in SWS time-delays are attributed to stress-induced changes in crack aspect-ratios allowing stress-accumulation and stress-relaxation to be identified. Monitoring SWS in SW Iceland in 1988, stress-accumulation before an impending earthquake was recognised and emails were exchanged between the University of Edinburgh (EU) and the Iceland Meteorological Office (IMO). On 10th November 1988, EU emailed IMO that a M5 earthquake could occur soon on a seismically-active fault plane where seismicity was still continuing following a M5.1 earthquake six-months earlier. Three-days later, IMO emailed EU that a M5 earthquake had just occurred on the specified fault-plane. We suggest this is a successful earthquake stress-forecast, where we refer to the procedure as stress-forecasting earthquakes as opposed to predicting or forecasting to emphasise the different formalism. Lack of funds has prevented us monitoring SWS on Iceland seismograms, however, we have identified similar characteristic behaviour of SWS time-delays above swarms of small earthquakes which have enabled us to

  17. Encyclopedia of earthquake engineering

    CERN Document Server

    Kougioumtzoglou, Ioannis; Patelli, Edoardo; Au, Siu-Kui

    2015-01-01

    The Encyclopedia of Earthquake Engineering is designed to be the authoritative and comprehensive reference covering all major aspects of the science of earthquake engineering, specifically focusing on the interaction between earthquakes and infrastructure. The encyclopedia comprises approximately 265 contributions. Since earthquake engineering deals with the interaction between earthquake disturbances and the built infrastructure, the emphasis is on basic design processes important to both non-specialists and engineers so that readers become suitably well-informed without needing to deal with the details of specialist understanding. The content of this encyclopedia provides technically inclined and informed readers about the ways in which earthquakes can affect our infrastructure and how engineers would go about designing against, mitigating and remediating these effects. The coverage ranges from buildings, foundations, underground construction, lifelines and bridges, roads, embankments and slopes. The encycl...

  18. Earthquake Swarm Along the San Andreas Fault near Palmdale, Southern California, 1976 to 1977.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McNally, K C; Kanamori, H; Pechmann, J C; Fuis, G

    1978-09-01

    Between November 1976 and November 1977 a swarm of small earthquakes (local magnitude foreshock sequences, such as tight clustering of hypocenters and time-dependent rotations of stress axes inferred from focal mechanisms. However, because of our present lack of understanding of the processes that precede earthquake faulting, the implications of the swarm for future large earthquakes on the San Andreas fault are unknown.

  19. Earthquake at 40 feet

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, G. J.

    1976-01-01

    The earthquake that struck the island of Guam on November 1, 1975, at 11:17 a.m had many unique aspects-not the least of which was the experience of an earthquake of 6.25 Richter magnitude while at 40 feet. My wife Bonnie, a fellow diver, Greg Guzman, and I were diving at Gabgab Beach in teh outer harbor of Apra Harbor, engaged in underwater phoyography when the earthquake struck. 

  20. Earthquakes and economic growth

    OpenAIRE

    Fisker, Peter Simonsen

    2012-01-01

    This study explores the economic consequences of earthquakes. In particular, it is investigated how exposure to earthquakes affects economic growth both across and within countries. The key result of the empirical analysis is that while there are no observable effects at the country level, earthquake exposure significantly decreases 5-year economic growth at the local level. Areas at lower stages of economic development suffer harder in terms of economic growth than richer areas. In addition,...

  1. TO BE OR NOT TO BE: AN INFORMATIVE NON-SYMBOLIC NUMERICAL MAGNITUDE PROCESSING STUDY ABOUT SMALL VERSUS LARGE NUMBERS IN INFANTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Annelies CEULEMANS

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Many studies tested the association between numerical magnitude processing and mathematical achievement with conflicting findings reported for individuals with mathematical learning disorders. Some of the inconsistencies might be explained by the number of non-symbolic stimuli or dot collections used in studies. It has been hypothesized that there is an object-file system for ‘small’ and an analogue magnitude system for ‘large’ numbers. This two-system account has been supported by the set size limit of the object-file system (three items. A boundary was defined, accordingly, categorizing numbers below four as ‘small’ and from four and above as ‘large’. However, data on ‘small’ number processing and on the ‘boundary’ between small and large numbers are missing. In this contribution we provide data from infants discriminating between the number sets 4 vs. 8 and 1 vs. 4, both containing the number four combined with a small and a large number respectively. Participants were 25 and 26 full term 9-month-olds for 4 vs. 8 and 1 vs. 4 respectively. The stimuli (dots were controlled for continuous variables. Eye-tracking was combined with the habituation paradigm. The results showed that the infants were successful in discriminating 1 from 4, but failed to discriminate 4 from 8 dots. This finding supports the assumption of the number four as a ‘small’ number and enlarges the object-file system’s limit. This study might help to explain inconsistencies in studies. Moreover, the information may be useful in answering parent’s questions about challenges that vulnerable children with number processing problems, such as children with mathematical learning disorders, might encounter. In addition, the study might give some information on the stimuli that can be used to effectively foster children’s magnitude processing skills.

  2. Is earthquake rate in south Iceland modified by seasonal loading?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jonsson, S.; Aoki, Y.; Drouin, V.

    2017-12-01

    Several temporarily varying processes have the potential of modifying the rate of earthquakes in the south Iceland seismic zone, one of the two most active seismic zones in Iceland. These include solid earth tides, seasonal meteorological effects and influence from passing weather systems, and variations in snow and glacier loads. In this study we investigate the influence these processes may have on crustal stresses and stressing rates in the seismic zone and assess whether they appear to be influencing the earthquake rate. While historical earthquakes in the south Iceland have preferentially occurred in early summer, this tendency is less clear for small earthquakes. The local earthquake catalogue (going back to 1991, magnitude of completeness M6+ earthquakes, which occurred in June 2000 and May 2008. Standard Reasenberg earthquake declustering or more involved model independent stochastic declustering algorithms are not capable of fully eliminating the aftershocks from the catalogue. We therefore inspected the catalogue for the time period before 2000 and it shows limited seasonal tendency in earthquake occurrence. Our preliminary results show no clear correlation between earthquake rates and short-term stressing variations induced from solid earth tides or passing storms. Seasonal meteorological effects also appear to be too small to influence the earthquake activity. Snow and glacier load variations induce significant vertical motions in the area with peak loading occurring in Spring (April-May) and maximum unloading in Fall (Sept.-Oct.). Early summer occurrence of historical earthquakes therefore correlates with early unloading rather than with the peak unloading or unloading rate, which appears to indicate limited influence of this seasonal process on the earthquake activity.

  3. Earthquakes trigger the loss of groundwater biodiversity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galassi, Diana M. P.; Lombardo, Paola; Fiasca, Barbara; di Cioccio, Alessia; di Lorenzo, Tiziana; Petitta, Marco; di Carlo, Piero

    2014-09-01

    Earthquakes are among the most destructive natural events. The 6 April 2009, 6.3-Mw earthquake in L'Aquila (Italy) markedly altered the karstic Gran Sasso Aquifer (GSA) hydrogeology and geochemistry. The GSA groundwater invertebrate community is mainly comprised of small-bodied, colourless, blind microcrustaceans. We compared abiotic and biotic data from two pre-earthquake and one post-earthquake complete but non-contiguous hydrological years to investigate the effects of the 2009 earthquake on the dominant copepod component of the obligate groundwater fauna. Our results suggest that the massive earthquake-induced aquifer strain biotriggered a flushing of groundwater fauna, with a dramatic decrease in subterranean species abundance. Population turnover rates appeared to have crashed, no longer replenishing the long-standing communities from aquifer fractures, and the aquifer became almost totally deprived of animal life. Groundwater communities are notorious for their low resilience. Therefore, any major disturbance that negatively impacts survival or reproduction may lead to local extinction of species, most of them being the only survivors of phylogenetic lineages extinct at the Earth surface. Given the ecological key role played by the subterranean fauna as decomposers of organic matter and ``ecosystem engineers'', we urge more detailed, long-term studies on the effect of major disturbances to groundwater ecosystems.

  4. Topographic changes and their driving factors after 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, C.; Wang, M.; Xie, J.; Liu, K.

    2017-12-01

    The Wenchuan Ms 8.0 Earthquake caused topographic change in the stricken areas because of the formation of numerous coseismic landslides. The emergence of new landslides and debris flows and movement of loose materials under the driving force of heavy rainfall could further shape the local topography. Dynamic topographic changes in mountainous areas stricken by major earthquakes have a strong linkage to the development and occurrence of secondary disasters. However, little attention has been paid to continuously monitoring mountain environment change after such earthquakes. A digital elevation model (DEM) is the main feature of the terrain surface, in our research, we extracted DEM in 2013 and 2015 of a typical mountainous area severely impacted by the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake from the ZY-3 stereo pair images with validation by field measurement. Combined with the elevation dataset in 2002 and 2010, we quantitatively assessed elevation changes in different years and qualitatively analyzed spatiotemporal variation of the terrain and mass movement across the study area. The results show that the earthquake stricken area experienced substantial elevation changes caused by seismic forces and subsequent rainfalls. Meanwhile, deposits after the earthquake are mainly accumulated on the river-channels and mountain ridges and deep gullies which increase the risk of other geo-hazards. And the heavy rainfalls after the earthquake have become the biggest driver of elevation reduction, which overwhelmed elevation increase during the major earthquake. Our study provided a better understanding of subsequent hazards and risks faced by residents and communities stricken by major earthquakes.

  5. Finite element models of earthquake cycles in mature strike-slip fault zones

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lynch, John Charles

    The research presented in this dissertation is on the subject of strike-slip earthquakes and the stresses that build and release in the Earth's crust during earthquake cycles. Numerical models of these cycles in a layered elastic/viscoelastic crust are produced using the finite element method. A fault that alternately sticks and slips poses a particularly challenging problem for numerical implementation, and a new contact element dubbed the "Velcro" element was developed to address this problem (Appendix A). Additionally, the finite element code used in this study was bench-marked against analytical solutions for some simplified problems (Chapter 2), and the resolving power was tested for the fault region of the models (Appendix B). With the modeling method thus developed, there are two main questions posed. First, in Chapter 3, the effect of a finite-width shear zone is considered. By defining a viscoelastic shear zone beneath a periodically slipping fault, it is found that shear stress concentrates at the edges of the shear zone and thus causes the stress tensor to rotate into non-Andersonian orientations. Several methods are used to examine the stress patterns, including the plunge angles of the principal stresses and a new method that plots the stress tensor in a manner analogous to seismic focal mechanism diagrams. In Chapter 4, a simple San Andreas-like model is constructed, consisting of two great earthquake producing faults separated by a freely-slipping shorter fault. The model inputs of lower crustal viscosity, fault separation distance, and relative breaking strengths are examined for their effect on fault communication. It is found that with a lower crustal viscosity of 1018 Pa s (in the lower range of estimates for California), the two faults tend to synchronize their earthquake cycles, even in the cases where the faults have asymmetric breaking strengths. These models imply that postseismic stress transfer over hundreds of kilometers may play a

  6. Seismic gaps previous to certain great earthquakes occurring in North China

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wei, K H; Lin, C H; Chu, H C; Chao, Y H; Chao, H L; Hou, H F

    1978-07-01

    The epicentral distributions of small and moderate earthquakes preceding nine great earthquakes (M greater than or equal to 7.0) in North China are analyzed. It can be seen that most of these earthquakes are preceded by gaps in the regions surrounding their epicenters. The relations between the parameters of the seismic gaps, such as the lengths of their long and short axes, the areas of the gaps, etc., and the parameters of the corresponding earthquakes are discussed.

  7. Fault roughness and strength heterogeneity control earthquake size and stress drop

    KAUST Repository

    Zielke, Olaf

    2017-01-13

    An earthquake\\'s stress drop is related to the frictional breakdown during sliding and constitutes a fundamental quantity of the rupture process. High-speed laboratory friction experiments that emulate the rupture process imply stress drop values that greatly exceed those commonly reported for natural earthquakes. We hypothesize that this stress drop discrepancy is due to fault-surface roughness and strength heterogeneity: an earthquake\\'s moment release and its recurrence probability depend not only on stress drop and rupture dimension but also on the geometric roughness of the ruptured fault and the location of failing strength asperities along it. Using large-scale numerical simulations for earthquake ruptures under varying roughness and strength conditions, we verify our hypothesis, showing that smoother faults may generate larger earthquakes than rougher faults under identical tectonic loading conditions. We further discuss the potential impact of fault roughness on earthquake recurrence probability. This finding provides important information, also for seismic hazard analysis.

  8. Stochastic dynamic modeling of regular and slow earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aso, N.; Ando, R.; Ide, S.

    2017-12-01

    Both regular and slow earthquakes are slip phenomena on plate boundaries and are simulated by a (quasi-)dynamic modeling [Liu and Rice, 2005]. In these numerical simulations, spatial heterogeneity is usually considered not only for explaining real physical properties but also for evaluating the stability of the calculations or the sensitivity of the results on the condition. However, even though we discretize the model space with small grids, heterogeneity at smaller scales than the grid size is not considered in the models with deterministic governing equations. To evaluate the effect of heterogeneity at the smaller scales we need to consider stochastic interactions between slip and stress in a dynamic modeling. Tidal stress is known to trigger or affect both regular and slow earthquakes [Yabe et al., 2015; Ide et al., 2016], and such an external force with fluctuation can also be considered as a stochastic external force. A healing process of faults may also be stochastic, so we introduce stochastic friction law. In the present study, we propose a stochastic dynamic model to explain both regular and slow earthquakes. We solve mode III problem, which corresponds to the rupture propagation along the strike direction. We use BIEM (boundary integral equation method) scheme to simulate slip evolution, but we add stochastic perturbations in the governing equations, which is usually written in a deterministic manner. As the simplest type of perturbations, we adopt Gaussian deviations in the formulation of the slip-stress kernel, external force, and friction. By increasing the amplitude of perturbations of the slip-stress kernel, we reproduce complicated rupture process of regular earthquakes including unilateral and bilateral ruptures. By perturbing external force, we reproduce slow rupture propagation at a scale of km/day. The slow propagation generated by a combination of fast interaction at S-wave velocity is analogous to the kinetic theory of gasses: thermal

  9. Structural factors controlling inter-plate coupling and earthquake rupture process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kodaira, S.

    2007-05-01

    Recent availability of a large number of ocean bottom seismographs (OBSs), a large volume of air-gun array and a long streamer cable for academics provide several new findings of lithospheric scale structures in subduction seismogenic zones. JAMSTEC has acquired long-offset seismic data using a super-densely deploy OBS (i.e. 1 - 5 km spacing OBSs along 100 - 500 km long profiles) in the Nankai seismogeinc zone, SW. Japan, since 1999. Long-offset multichannel seismic (MCS) data by a two-ship experiment, as well as conventional 2D MCS data, have been also acquired at a part of the profiles. Some of those profiles have been designed as combined onshore - offshore profiles for imaging a land-ocean transition zone. One of the most striking findings is an image of several scales of subducted seamounts/ridges in the Nankai trough seismogenic zone. We detected the subducted seamount/ridges, which are 50 - 100 km wide, distributing from near trough axis to ~ 40 km deep beneath the Japanese island. From a point of seismogenic process, an important aspect is that those structures are strongly correlated with slip zones of magnitude 8-class earthquakes, i.e.; subducted seamounts/ridge control the rupture propagations. Moreover, the most recent seismic study crossing the segmentation boundary between M=8 class earthquakes detected a high seismic velocity body forming a strongly coupled patch at the segmentation boundary. The numerical simulation incorporating all those structures explained the historic rupture patterns, and shows the occurrence of a giant earthquake along the entire Nankai trough, a distance of over 600 km long (Mw=8.7). The growth processes of a rupture revealed from the simulation are; 1) prior to the giant earthquake, a small slow event (or earthquake) occurs near the segmentation boundary, 2) this accelerates a very slow slip (slower than the plate convergent rate), at the strong patch, which reduces a degree of coupling, 3) then a rupture easily propagates

  10. OMG Earthquake! Can Twitter improve earthquake response?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Earle, P. S.; Guy, M.; Ostrum, C.; Horvath, S.; Buckmaster, R. A.

    2009-12-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is investigating how the social networking site Twitter, a popular service for sending and receiving short, public, text messages, can augment its earthquake response products and the delivery of hazard information. The goal is to gather near real-time, earthquake-related messages (tweets) and provide geo-located earthquake detections and rough maps of the corresponding felt areas. Twitter and other social Internet technologies are providing the general public with anecdotal earthquake hazard information before scientific information has been published from authoritative sources. People local to an event often publish information within seconds via these technologies. In contrast, depending on the location of the earthquake, scientific alerts take between 2 to 20 minutes. Examining the tweets following the March 30, 2009, M4.3 Morgan Hill earthquake shows it is possible (in some cases) to rapidly detect and map the felt area of an earthquake using Twitter responses. Within a minute of the earthquake, the frequency of “earthquake” tweets rose above the background level of less than 1 per hour to about 150 per minute. Using the tweets submitted in the first minute, a rough map of the felt area can be obtained by plotting the tweet locations. Mapping the tweets from the first six minutes shows observations extending from Monterey to Sacramento, similar to the perceived shaking region mapped by the USGS “Did You Feel It” system. The tweets submitted after the earthquake also provided (very) short first-impression narratives from people who experienced the shaking. Accurately assessing the potential and robustness of a Twitter-based system is difficult because only tweets spanning the previous seven days can be searched, making a historical study impossible. We have, however, been archiving tweets for several months, and it is clear that significant limitations do exist. The main drawback is the lack of quantitative information

  11. Evidence for strong Holocene earthquake(s) in the Wabash Valley seismic zone

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Obermeier, S.

    1991-01-01

    Many small and slightly damaging earthquakes have taken place in the region of the lower Wabash River Valley of Indiana and Illinois during the 200 years of historic record. Seismologists have long suspected the Wabash Valley seismic zone to be capable of producing earthquakes much stronger than the largest of record (m b 5.8). The seismic zone contains the poorly defined Wabash Valley fault zone and also appears to contain other vaguely defined faults at depths from which the strongest earthquakes presently originate. Faults near the surface are generally covered with thick alluvium in lowlands and a veneer of loess in uplands, which make direct observations of faults difficult. Partly because of this difficulty, a search for paleoliquefaction features was begun in 1990. Conclusions of the study are as follows: (1) an earthquake much stronger than any historic earthquake struck the lower Wabash Valley between 1,500 and 7,500 years ago; (2) the epicentral region of the prehistoric strong earthquake was the Wabash Valley seismic zone; (3) apparent sites have been located where 1811-12 earthquake accelerations can be bracketed

  12. Crowd-Sourced Global Earthquake Early Warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Minson, S. E.; Brooks, B. A.; Glennie, C. L.; Murray, J. R.; Langbein, J. O.; Owen, S. E.; Iannucci, B. A.; Hauser, D. L.

    2014-12-01

    Although earthquake early warning (EEW) has shown great promise for reducing loss of life and property, it has only been implemented in a few regions due, in part, to the prohibitive cost of building the required dense seismic and geodetic networks. However, many cars and consumer smartphones, tablets, laptops, and similar devices contain low-cost versions of the same sensors used for earthquake monitoring. If a workable EEW system could be implemented based on either crowd-sourced observations from consumer devices or very inexpensive networks of instruments built from consumer-quality sensors, EEW coverage could potentially be expanded worldwide. Controlled tests of several accelerometers and global navigation satellite system (GNSS) receivers typically found in consumer devices show that, while they are significantly noisier than scientific-grade instruments, they are still accurate enough to capture displacements from moderate and large magnitude earthquakes. The accuracy of these sensors varies greatly depending on the type of data collected. Raw coarse acquisition (C/A) code GPS data are relatively noisy. These observations have a surface displacement detection threshold approaching ~1 m and would thus only be useful in large Mw 8+ earthquakes. However, incorporating either satellite-based differential corrections or using a Kalman filter to combine the raw GNSS data with low-cost acceleration data (such as from a smartphone) decreases the noise dramatically. These approaches allow detection thresholds as low as 5 cm, potentially enabling accurate warnings for earthquakes as small as Mw 6.5. Simulated performance tests show that, with data contributed from only a very small fraction of the population, a crowd-sourced EEW system would be capable of warning San Francisco and San Jose of a Mw 7 rupture on California's Hayward fault and could have accurately issued both earthquake and tsunami warnings for the 2011 Mw 9 Tohoku-oki, Japan earthquake.

  13. Landslides Triggered by the 12 May 2008, M 7.9 Wenchuan, China Earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harp, E.; Jibson, R.; Godt, J.

    2009-04-01

    The 12 May 2008, M 7.9 Wenchuan earthquake in eastern Sichuan Province of China triggered tens of thousands of rock falls, rock slides, rock avalanches, and deep, complex, landslides. Of the approximately 87,000 deaths caused by the earthquake, more than 20,000 have been attributed to landsides. Numerous villages were buried by large landslides. Air-blasts resulting from the rapid failure and movement of landslides were observed and documented from numerous eye-witness accounts. More than 100 landslide-dammed lakes were created by the earthquake, 33 of which were evaluated to determine if spillway construction was necessary to minimize flooding by future breaching of the landslide dams. Spillways were ultimately constructed on at least 16 landslide dams. Preliminary observations in the field and from satellite imagery indicate that the most common types of landslides were rock falls and rock slides that ranged in size from several hundred cubic meters to several hundred thousand cubic meters in volume. There were hundreds to perhaps as many as one thousand landslides exceeding 1 million cubic meters in volume. The largest landslide identified using Jaxa's Alos/Prism satellite imagery (2.5 m resolution) is nearly 1 billion cubic meters in volume and is located approximately 12 km north-northeast of the city of Hanwang. This landslide appears to have resulted from the failure of a 1.5-km section of ridge crest that now occupies most of the adjacent valley to the northeast; its toe spills over the next ridge crest to the northeast. The satellite imagery of 4 June 2008 shows two small lakes dammed by the slide debris. Within the mountainous areas in the near-field zone of shaking, rock slides dammed chains of lakes in many drainages. Sections of streams 2-3 km long have been completely covered by rock debris as of the 4 June imagery The debris from the triggered landslides is being redistributed rapidly by post-earthquake rainfall. A 100-year rainstorm in September

  14. Ground failure in the 2001 Mw 8.4 southern Peru earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rondinel-Oviedo, Efrain Alejandro

    On June 23rd 2001 a moment magnitude (M W) 8.4, earthquake shook the southern portion of Peru. This rare large-magnitude event provided a unique opportunity to develop a suite of high quality case histories and also to test and calibrate existing geotechnical earthquake engineering analysis procedures and models against observations from the earthquake. The work presented in this thesis is focused on three topics pertaining to ground failure (i.e., the permanent deformation of the ground resulting from an earthquake) observed during the event: (1) surface ground damage in small basin geometries, (2) seismic compression, and (3) performance of a concrete faced rockfill dam (CFRD) dam. Surface ground strain damage patterns in small basin geometries has previously been typically studied at the large (i.e., geological) scale, but not at the scale of civil engineering infrastructure. During seismic events basin geometries containing soft material confined by stiffer material trap the seismic waves and generate surface waves that travel on the ground along the soft material. Numerical modeling shows that surface waves are generated at basin edges and travel on the ground creating higher duration, higher response (peak ground acceleration, PGA), higher energy (Arias Intensity) and higher angular distortion, especially in zones close to the edges. The impedance contrast between the stiff material and the soft material, and the dip angle play an important role in basin response. Seismic compression (i.e., the shaking induced densification of unsaturated soil) was observed in many highway embankments in the region of the earthquake. In many instances, this phenomenon was exasperated by soil-structure interaction with adjacent bridge or culvert structures. Numerical modeling conducted as part of this research showed (i) a significantly different response when the structure (culvert) is considered, (ii) impedance contrast plays a role in the system responses, and (iii) low

  15. Earthquakes and Schools

    Science.gov (United States)

    National Clearinghouse for Educational Facilities, 2008

    2008-01-01

    Earthquakes are low-probability, high-consequence events. Though they may occur only once in the life of a school, they can have devastating, irreversible consequences. Moderate earthquakes can cause serious damage to building contents and non-structural building systems, serious injury to students and staff, and disruption of building operations.…

  16. Bam Earthquake in Iran

    CERN Multimedia

    2004-01-01

    Following their request for help from members of international organisations, the permanent Mission of the Islamic Republic of Iran has given the following bank account number, where you can donate money to help the victims of the Bam earthquake. Re: Bam earthquake 235 - UBS 311264.35L Bubenberg Platz 3001 BERN

  17. Tradable Earthquake Certificates

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Woerdman, Edwin; Dulleman, Minne

    2018-01-01

    This article presents a market-based idea to compensate for earthquake damage caused by the extraction of natural gas and applies it to the case of Groningen in the Netherlands. Earthquake certificates give homeowners a right to yearly compensation for both property damage and degradation of living

  18. Calculation of displacements on fractures intersecting canisters induced by earthquakes: Aberg, Beberg and Ceberg examples

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    LaPointe, P.R.; Cladouhos, T. [Golder Associates Inc. (Sweden); Follin, S. [Golder Grundteknik KB (Sweden)

    1999-01-01

    This study shows how the method developed in La Pointe and others can be applied to assess the safety of canisters due to secondary slippage of fractures intersecting those canisters in the event of an earthquake. The method is applied to the three generic sites Aberg, Beberg and Ceberg. Estimation of secondary slippage or displacement is a four-stage process. The first stage is the analysis of lineament trace data in order to quantify the scaling properties of the fractures. This is necessary to insure that all scales of fracturing are properly represented in the numerical simulations. The second stage consists of creating stochastic discrete fracture network (DFN) models for jointing and small faulting at each of the generic sites. The third stage is to combine the stochastic DFN model with mapped lineament data at larger scales into data sets for the displacement calculations. The final stage is to carry out the displacement calculations for all of the earthquakes that might occur during the next 100,000 years. Large earthquakes are located along any lineaments in the vicinity of the site that are of sufficient size to accommodate an earthquake of the specified magnitude. These lineaments are assumed to represent vertical faults. Smaller earthquakes are located at random. The magnitude of the earthquake that any fault could generate is based upon the mapped surface trace length of the lineaments, and is calculated from regression relations. Recurrence rates for a given magnitude of earthquake are based upon published studies for Sweden. A major assumption in this study is that future earthquakes will be similar in magnitude, location and orientation as earthquakes in the geological and historical records of Sweden. Another important assumption is that the displacement calculations based upon linear elasticity and linear elastic fracture mechanics provides a conservative (over-)estimate of possible displacements. A third assumption is that the world

  19. Using remote sensing to predict earthquake impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fylaktos, Asimakis; Yfantidou, Anastasia

    2017-09-01

    Natural hazards like earthquakes can result to enormous property damage, and human casualties in mountainous areas. Italy has always been exposed to numerous earthquakes, mostly concentrated in central and southern regions. Last year, two seismic events near Norcia (central Italy) have occurred, which led to substantial loss of life and extensive damage to properties, infrastructure and cultural heritage. This research utilizes remote sensing products and GIS software, to provide a database of information. We used both SAR images of Sentinel 1A and optical imagery of Landsat 8 to examine the differences of topography with the aid of the multi temporal monitoring technique. This technique suits for the observation of any surface deformation. This database is a cluster of information regarding the consequences of the earthquakes in groups, such as property and infrastructure damage, regional rifts, cultivation loss, landslides and surface deformations amongst others, all mapped on GIS software. Relevant organizations can implement these data in order to calculate the financial impact of these types of earthquakes. In the future, we can enrich this database including more regions and enhance the variety of its applications. For instance, we could predict the future impacts of any type of earthquake in several areas, and design a preliminarily model of emergency for immediate evacuation and quick recovery response. It is important to know how the surface moves, in particular geographical regions like Italy, Cyprus and Greece, where earthquakes are so frequent. We are not able to predict earthquakes, but using data from this research, we may assess the damage that could be caused in the future.

  20. Turkish Compulsory Earthquake Insurance and "Istanbul Earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Durukal, E.; Sesetyan, K.; Erdik, M.

    2009-04-01

    The city of Istanbul will likely experience substantial direct and indirect losses as a result of a future large (M=7+) earthquake with an annual probability of occurrence of about 2%. This paper dwells on the expected building losses in terms of probable maximum and average annualized losses and discusses the results from the perspective of the compulsory earthquake insurance scheme operational in the country. The TCIP system is essentially designed to operate in Turkey with sufficient penetration to enable the accumulation of funds in the pool. Today, with only 20% national penetration, and about approximately one-half of all policies in highly earthquake prone areas (one-third in Istanbul) the system exhibits signs of adverse selection, inadequate premium structure and insufficient funding. Our findings indicate that the national compulsory earthquake insurance pool in Turkey will face difficulties in covering incurring building losses in Istanbul in the occurrence of a large earthquake. The annualized earthquake losses in Istanbul are between 140-300 million. Even if we assume that the deductible is raised to 15%, the earthquake losses that need to be paid after a large earthquake in Istanbul will be at about 2.5 Billion, somewhat above the current capacity of the TCIP. Thus, a modification to the system for the insured in Istanbul (or Marmara region) is necessary. This may mean an increase in the premia and deductible rates, purchase of larger re-insurance covers and development of a claim processing system. Also, to avoid adverse selection, the penetration rates elsewhere in Turkey need to be increased substantially. A better model would be introduction of parametric insurance for Istanbul. By such a model the losses will not be indemnified, however will be directly calculated on the basis of indexed ground motion levels and damages. The immediate improvement of a parametric insurance model over the existing one will be the elimination of the claim processing

  1. Numerical Modelling of Seismic Slope Stability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bourdeau, Céline; Havenith, Hans-Balder; Fleurisson, Jean-Alain; Grandjean, Gilles

    Earthquake ground-motions recorded worldwide have shown that many morphological and geological structures (topography, sedimentary basin) are prone to amplify the seismic shaking (San Fernando, 1971 [Davis and West 1973] Irpinia, 1980 [Del Pezzo et al. 1983]). This phenomenon, called site effects, was again recently observed in El Salvador when, on the 13th of January 2001, the country was struck by a M = 7.6 earthquake. Indeed, while horizontal accelerations on a rock site at Berlin, 80 km from the epicentre, did not exceed 0.23 g, they reached 0.6 g at Armenia, 110 km from the epicentre. Armenia is located on a small hill underlaid by a few meters thick pyroclastic deposits. Both the local topography and the presence of surface layers are likely to have caused the observed amplification effects, which are supposed to have contributed to the triggering of some of the hundreds of landslides related to this seismic event (Murphy et al. 2002). In order to better characterize the way site effects may influence the triggering of landslides along slopes, 2D numerical elastic and elasto-plastic models were developed. Various geometrical, geological and seismic conditions were analysed and the dynamic behaviour of the slope under these con- ditions was studied in terms of creation and location of a sliding surface. Preliminary results suggest that the size of modelled slope failures is dependent on site effects.

  2. Distribution of incremental static stress caused by earthquakes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Y. Kagan

    1994-01-01

    Full Text Available Theoretical calculations, simulations and measurements of rotation of earthquake focal mechanisms suggest that the stress in earthquake focal zones follows the Cauchy distribution which is one of the stable probability distributions (with the value of the exponent α equal to 1. We review the properties of the stable distributions and show that the Cauchy distribution is expected to approximate the stress caused by earthquakes occurring over geologically long intervals of a fault zone development. However, the stress caused by recent earthquakes recorded in instrumental catalogues, should follow symmetric stable distributions with the value of α significantly less than one. This is explained by a fractal distribution of earthquake hypocentres: the dimension of a hypocentre set, ��, is close to zero for short-term earthquake catalogues and asymptotically approaches 2¼ for long-time intervals. We use the Harvard catalogue of seismic moment tensor solutions to investigate the distribution of incremental static stress caused by earthquakes. The stress measured in the focal zone of each event is approximated by stable distributions. In agreement with theoretical considerations, the exponent value of the distribution approaches zero as the time span of an earthquake catalogue (ΔT decreases. For large stress values α increases. We surmise that it is caused by the δ increase for small inter-earthquake distances due to location errors.

  3. Investigating landslides caused by earthquakes - A historical review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keefer, D.K.

    2002-01-01

    relatively small, and one of the most pressing needs in this area of research is for the complete documentation of landslides triggered by many more earthquakes in a wider variety of environments.

  4. Tidal controls on earthquake size-frequency statistics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ide, S.; Yabe, S.; Tanaka, Y.

    2016-12-01

    The possibility that tidal stresses can trigger earthquakes is a long-standing issue in seismology. Except in some special cases, a causal relationship between seismicity and the phase of tidal stress has been rejected on the basis of studies using many small events. However, recently discovered deep tectonic tremors are highly sensitive to tidal stress levels, with the relationship being governed by a nonlinear law according to which the tremor rate increases exponentially with increasing stress; thus, slow deformation (and the probability of earthquakes) may be enhanced during periods of large tidal stress. Here, we show the influence of tidal stress on seismicity by calculating histories of tidal shear stress during the 2-week period before earthquakes. Very large earthquakes tend to occur near the time of maximum tidal stress, but this tendency is not obvious for small earthquakes. Rather, we found that tidal stress controls the earthquake size-frequency statistics; i.e., the fraction of large events increases (i.e. the b-value of the Gutenberg-Richter relation decreases) as the tidal shear stress increases. This correlation is apparent in data from the global catalog and in relatively homogeneous regional catalogues of earthquakes in Japan. The relationship is also reasonable, considering the well-known relationship between stress and the b-value. Our findings indicate that the probability of a tiny rock failure expanding to a gigantic rupture increases with increasing tidal stress levels. This finding has clear implications for probabilistic earthquake forecasting.

  5. Earthquakes, November-December 1977

    Science.gov (United States)

    Person, W.J.

    1978-01-01

    Two major earthquakes occurred in the last 2 months of the year. A magnitude 7.0 earthquake struck San Juan Province, Argentina, on November 23, causing fatalities and damage. The second major earthquake was a magnitude 7.0 in the Bonin Islands region, an unpopulated area. On December 19, Iran experienced a destructive earthquake, which killed over 500.

  6. Earthquakes, September-October 1986

    Science.gov (United States)

    Person, W.J.

    1987-01-01

    There was one great earthquake (8.0 and above) during this reporting period in the South Pacific in the Kermadec Islands. There were no major earthquakes (7.0-7.9) but earthquake-related deaths were reported in Greece and in El Salvador. There were no destrcutive earthquakes in the United States.

  7. Near Field Small Earthquake Long Period Spectrum

    Science.gov (United States)

    1976-04-01

    L. Fredrickson, personal communication). The main shock occurred eight seconds after a magnitude 4.5 foreshock , and according to T. V. McEvilly...the strike (but rat the dip) of this plar^e is in good agreenant with that (IT C90 W) obtained from a faultplane solution for a large foreshock 0

  8. Enhanced Earthquake-Resistance on the High Level Radioactive Waste Canister

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Choi, Youngchul; Yoon, Chanhoon; Lee, Jeaowan; Kim, Jinsup; Choi, Heuijoo

    2014-01-01

    In this paper, the earthquake-resistance type buffer was developed with the method protecting safely about the earthquake. The main parameter having an effect on the earthquake-resistant performance was analyzed and the earthquake-proof type buffer material was designed. The shear analysis model was developed and the performance of the earthquake-resistance buffer material was evaluated. The dynamic behavior of the radioactive waste disposal canister was analyzed in case the earthquake was generated. In the case, the disposal canister gets the serious damage. In this paper, the earthquake-resistance buffer material was developed in order to prevent this damage. By putting the buffer in which the density is small between the canister and buffer, the earthquake-resistant performance was improved about 80%

  9. The Challenge of Centennial Earthquakes to Improve Modern Earthquake Engineering

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saragoni, G. Rodolfo

    2008-01-01

    The recent commemoration of the centennial of the San Francisco and Valparaiso 1906 earthquakes has given the opportunity to reanalyze their damages from modern earthquake engineering perspective. These two earthquakes plus Messina Reggio Calabria 1908 had a strong impact in the birth and developing of earthquake engineering. The study of the seismic performance of some up today existing buildings, that survive centennial earthquakes, represent a challenge to better understand the limitations of our in use earthquake design methods. Only Valparaiso 1906 earthquake, of the three considered centennial earthquakes, has been repeated again as the Central Chile, 1985, Ms = 7.8 earthquake. In this paper a comparative study of the damage produced by 1906 and 1985 Valparaiso earthquakes is done in the neighborhood of Valparaiso harbor. In this study the only three centennial buildings of 3 stories that survived both earthquakes almost undamaged were identified. Since for 1985 earthquake accelerogram at El Almendral soil conditions as well as in rock were recoded, the vulnerability analysis of these building is done considering instrumental measurements of the demand. The study concludes that good performance of these buildings in the epicentral zone of large earthquakes can not be well explained by modern earthquake engineering methods. Therefore, it is recommended to use in the future of more suitable instrumental parameters, such as the destructiveness potential factor, to describe earthquake demand

  10. Earthquake response analysis of a base isolated building

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mazda, T.; Shiojiri, H.; Sawada, Y.; Harada, O.; Kawai, N.; Ontsuka, S.

    1989-01-01

    Recently, the seismic isolation has become one of the popular methods in the design of important structures or equipments against the earthquakes. However, it is desired to accumulate the demonstration data on reliability of seismically isolated structures and to establish the analysis methods of those structures. Based on the above recognition, the vibration tests of a base isolated building were carried out in Tsukuba Science City. After that, many earthquake records have been obtained at the building. In order to examine the validity of numerical models, earthquake response analyses have been executed by using both lumped mass model, and finite element model

  11. Memory effect in M ≥ 6 earthquakes of South-North Seismic Belt, Mainland China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Jeen-Hwa

    2013-07-01

    The M ≥ 6 earthquakes occurred in the South-North Seismic Belt, Mainland China, during 1901-2008 are taken to study the possible existence of memory effect in large earthquakes. The fluctuation analysis technique is applied to analyze the sequences of earthquake magnitude and inter-event time represented in the natural time domain. Calculated results show that the exponents of scaling law of fluctuation versus window length are less than 0.5 for the sequences of earthquake magnitude and inter-event time. The migration of earthquakes in study is taken to discuss the possible correlation between events. The phase portraits of two sequent magnitudes and two sequent inter-event times are also applied to explore if large (or small) earthquakes are followed by large (or small) events. Together with all kinds of given information, we conclude that the earthquakes in study is short-term correlated and thus the short-term memory effect would be operative.

  12. GPS and seismic constraints on the M = 7.3 2009 Swan Islands earthquake: implications for stress changes along the Motagua fault and other nearby faults

    Science.gov (United States)

    Graham, Shannon E.; DeMets, Charles; DeShon, Heather R.; Rogers, Robert; Maradiaga, Manuel Rodriguez; Strauch, Wilfried; Wiese, Klaus; Hernandez, Douglas

    2012-09-01

    We use measurements at 35 GPS stations in northern Central America and 25 seismometers at teleseismic distances to estimate the distribution of slip, source time function and Coulomb stress changes of the Mw = 7.3 2009 May 28, Swan Islands fault earthquake. This event, the largest in the region for several decades, ruptured the offshore continuation of the seismically hazardous Motagua fault of Guatemala, the site of the destructive Ms = 7.5 earthquake in 1976. Measured GPS offsets range from 308 millimetres at a campaign site in northern Honduras to 6 millimetres at five continuous sites in El Salvador. Separate inversions of geodetic and seismic data both indicate that up to ˜1 m of coseismic slip occurred along a ˜250-km-long rupture zone between the island of Roatan and the eastern limit of the 1976 M = 7.5 Motagua fault earthquake in Guatemala. Evidence for slip ˜250 km west of the epicentre is corroborated independently by aftershocks recorded by a local seismic network and by the high concentration of damage to structures in areas of northern Honduras adjacent to the western limit of the rupture zone. Coulomb stresses determined from the coseismic slip distribution resolve a maximum of 1 bar of stress transferred to the seismically hazardous Motagua fault and further indicate unclamping of normal faults along the northern shore of Honduras, where two M > 5 normal-faulting earthquakes and numerous small earthquakes were triggered by the main shock.

  13. Method to Determine Appropriate Source Models of Large Earthquakes Including Tsunami Earthquakes for Tsunami Early Warning in Central America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tanioka, Yuichiro; Miranda, Greyving Jose Arguello; Gusman, Aditya Riadi; Fujii, Yushiro

    2017-08-01

    Large earthquakes, such as the Mw 7.7 1992 Nicaragua earthquake, have occurred off the Pacific coasts of El Salvador and Nicaragua in Central America and have generated distractive tsunamis along these coasts. It is necessary to determine appropriate fault models before large tsunamis hit the coast. In this study, first, fault parameters were estimated from the W-phase inversion, and then an appropriate fault model was determined from the fault parameters and scaling relationships with a depth dependent rigidity. The method was tested for four large earthquakes, the 1992 Nicaragua tsunami earthquake (Mw7.7), the 2001 El Salvador earthquake (Mw7.7), the 2004 El Astillero earthquake (Mw7.0), and the 2012 El Salvador-Nicaragua earthquake (Mw7.3), which occurred off El Salvador and Nicaragua in Central America. The tsunami numerical simulations were carried out from the determined fault models. We found that the observed tsunami heights, run-up heights, and inundation areas were reasonably well explained by the computed ones. Therefore, our method for tsunami early warning purpose should work to estimate a fault model which reproduces tsunami heights near the coast of El Salvador and Nicaragua due to large earthquakes in the subduction zone.

  14. Roaming earthquakes in China highlight midcontinental hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Mian; Wang, Hui

    2012-11-01

    Before dawn on 28 July 1976, a magnitude (M) 7.8 earthquake struck Tangshan, a Chinese industrial city only 150 kilometers from Beijing (Figure 1a). In a brief moment, the earthquake destroyed the entire city and killed more than 242,000 people [Chen et al., 1988]. More than 30 years have passed, and upon the ruins a new Tangshan city has been built. However, the memory of devastation remains fresh. For this reason, a sequence of recent small earthquakes in the Tangshan region, including an M 4.8 event on 28 May and an M 4.0 event on 18 June 2012, has caused widespread concerns and heated debate in China. In the science community, the debate is whether the recent Tangshan earthquakes are the aftershocks of the 1976 earthquake despite the long gap in time since the main shock or harbingers of a new period of active seismicity in Tangshan and the rest of North China, where seismic activity seems to fluctuate between highs and lows over periods of a few decades [Ma, 1989].

  15. Overview of the geologic effects of the November 14, 2016, Mw 7.8 Kaikoura, New Zealand, earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jibson, Randall W.; Allstadt, Kate E.; Rengers, Francis K.; Godt, Jonathan W.

    2018-03-30

    The November 14, 2016, Kaikoura, New Zealand, earthquake (moment magnitude [Mw] 7.8) triggered more than 10,000 landslides over an area of about 12,000 square kilometers in the northeastern part of the South Island of New Zealand. In collaboration with GNS Science (the Institute of Geological and Nuclear Science Limited), we conducted ground and helicopter reconnaissance of the affected areas and assisted in rapid hazard evaluation. The majority of the triggered landslides were shallow- to moderate-depth (1–10 meters), highly disrupted falls and slides in rock and debris from Lower Cretaceous graywacke sandstone in the Seaward Kaikoura Range. Deeper, more coherent landslides in weak Upper Cretaceous to Neogene sedimentary rock also were numerous in the gentler topography south and inland (west) of the Seaward Kaikoura Range. The principal ground-failure hazards from the earthquake were the hundreds of valley-blocking landslides, many of which impounded lakes and ponds that posed potential downstream flooding hazards. Both large and small landslides also blocked road and rail corridors in many locations, including the main north-south highway (State Highway 1), which was still closed in October 2017. As part of our investigation, we compared post-earthquake field observations to the output of models used to estimate near-real-time landslide probabilities following earthquakes. The models generally over-predicted landslide occurrence and thus need further refinement.

  16. The El Asnam 1980 October 10 inland earthquake: a new hypothesis of tsunami generation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roger, J.; Hébert, H.; Ruegg, J.-C.; Briole, P.

    2011-06-01

    The Western Mediterranean Sea is not considered as a high seismic region. Only several earthquakes with magnitude above five occur each year and only a handful have consequences on human beings and infrastructure. The El Asnam (Algeria) earthquake of 1980 October 10 with an estimated magnitude Ms= 7.3 is one of the most destructive earthquakes recorded in northern Africa and more largely in the Western Mediterranean Basin. Although it is located inland, it is known to have been followed by a small tsunami recorded on several tide gauges along the southeastern Spanish Coast. In 1954, a similar earthquake having occurred at the same location induced a turbidity current associated to a submarine landslide, which is widely known to have cut submarine phone cables far from the coast. This event was followed by a small tsunami attributed to the landslide. Thus the origin of the tsunami of 1980 was promptly attributed to the same kind of submarine slide. As no evidence of such mass movement was highlighted, and because the tsunami wave periods does not match with a landslide origin in both cases (1954 and 1980), this study considers two rupture scenarios, that the coseismic deformation itself (of about 10 cm off the Algerian coast near Ténès) is sufficient to produce a low amplitude (several centimetres) tsunami able to reach the Spanish southeastern coast from Alicante to Algeciras (Gibraltar strait to the west). After a discussion concerning the proposed rupture scenarios and their respective parameters, numerical tsunami modelling is performed on a set of bathymetric grids. Then the results of wave propagation and amplification (maximum wave height maps) are discussed, with a special attention to Alicante (Spain) Harbour where the location of two historical tide gauges allows the comparison between synthetic mareograms and historical records showing sufficient signal amplitude. This study is part of the active tsunami hazard assessment in Mediterranean Sea especially

  17. Earthquake Ground Motion Selection

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-05-01

    Nonlinear analyses of soils, structures, and soil-structure systems offer the potential for more accurate characterization of geotechnical and structural response under strong earthquake shaking. The increasing use of advanced performance-based desig...

  18. 1988 Spitak Earthquake Database

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The 1988 Spitak Earthquake database is an extensive collection of geophysical and geological data, maps, charts, images and descriptive text pertaining to the...

  19. New fault picture points toward San Francisco Bay area earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kerr, R. A.

    1989-01-01

    Recent earthquakes and a new way of looking at faults suggest that damaging earthquakes are closing in on the San Francisco area. Earthquakes Awareness Week 1989 in northern California started off with a bang on Monday, 3 April, when a magnitude 4.8 earthquake struck 15 kilometers northeast of San Jose. The relatively small shock-its primary damage was the shattering of an air-control tower window-got the immediate attention of three U.S Geological Survey seismologists in Menlo Park near San Francisco. David Oppenheimer, William Bakun, and Allan Lindh had forecast a nearby earthquake in a just completed report, and this, they thought, might be it. 

  20. Oklahoma’s recent earthquakes and saltwater disposal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walsh, F. Rall; Zoback, Mark D.

    2015-01-01

    Over the past 5 years, parts of Oklahoma have experienced marked increases in the number of small- to moderate-sized earthquakes. In three study areas that encompass the vast majority of the recent seismicity, we show that the increases in seismicity follow 5- to 10-fold increases in the rates of saltwater disposal. Adjacent areas where there has been relatively little saltwater disposal have had comparatively few recent earthquakes. In the areas of seismic activity, the saltwater disposal principally comes from “produced” water, saline pore water that is coproduced with oil and then injected into deeper sedimentary formations. These formations appear to be in hydraulic communication with potentially active faults in crystalline basement, where nearly all the earthquakes are occurring. Although most of the recent earthquakes have posed little danger to the public, the possibility of triggering damaging earthquakes on potentially active basement faults cannot be discounted. PMID:26601200

  1. Electromagnetic Manifestation of Earthquakes

    OpenAIRE

    Uvarov Vladimir

    2017-01-01

    In a joint analysis of the results of recording the electrical component of the natural electromagnetic field of the Earth and the catalog of earthquakes in Kamchatka in 2013, unipolar pulses of constant amplitude associated with earthquakes were identified, whose activity is closely correlated with the energy of the electromagnetic field. For the explanation, a hypothesis about the cooperative character of these impulses is proposed.

  2. Electromagnetic Manifestation of Earthquakes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Uvarov Vladimir

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available In a joint analysis of the results of recording the electrical component of the natural electromagnetic field of the Earth and the catalog of earthquakes in Kamchatka in 2013, unipolar pulses of constant amplitude associated with earthquakes were identified, whose activity is closely correlated with the energy of the electromagnetic field. For the explanation, a hypothesis about the cooperative character of these impulses is proposed.

  3. Ionospheric GPS TEC Anomalies and M >= 5.9 Earthquakes in Indonesia during 1993 - 2002

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sarmoko Saroso

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Indonesia is one of the most seismically active regions in the world, containing numerous active volcanoes and subject to frequent earthquakes with epicenters distributed along the same regions as volcanoes. In this paper, a case study is carried out to investigate pre-earthquake ionospheric anomalies in total electron content (TEC during the Sulawesi earthquakes of 1993 - 2002, and the Sumatra-Andaman earthquake of 26 December 2004, the largest earthquake in the world since 1964. It is found that the ionospheric TECs remarkably decrease within 2 - 7 days before the earthquakes, and for the very powerful Sumatra-Andaman earthquake, the anomalies extend up to about 1600 km from the epicenter.

  4. Fundamental questions of earthquake statistics, source behavior, and the estimation of earthquake probabilities from possible foreshocks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michael, Andrew J.

    2012-01-01

    Estimates of the probability that an ML 4.8 earthquake, which occurred near the southern end of the San Andreas fault on 24 March 2009, would be followed by an M 7 mainshock over the following three days vary from 0.0009 using a Gutenberg–Richter model of aftershock statistics (Reasenberg and Jones, 1989) to 0.04 using a statistical model of foreshock behavior and long‐term estimates of large earthquake probabilities, including characteristic earthquakes (Agnew and Jones, 1991). I demonstrate that the disparity between the existing approaches depends on whether or not they conform to Gutenberg–Richter behavior. While Gutenberg–Richter behavior is well established over large regions, it could be violated on individual faults if they have characteristic earthquakes or over small areas if the spatial distribution of large‐event nucleations is disproportional to the rate of smaller events. I develop a new form of the aftershock model that includes characteristic behavior and combines the features of both models. This new model and the older foreshock model yield the same results when given the same inputs, but the new model has the advantage of producing probabilities for events of all magnitudes, rather than just for events larger than the initial one. Compared with the aftershock model, the new model has the advantage of taking into account long‐term earthquake probability models. Using consistent parameters, the probability of an M 7 mainshock on the southernmost San Andreas fault is 0.0001 for three days from long‐term models and the clustering probabilities following the ML 4.8 event are 0.00035 for a Gutenberg–Richter distribution and 0.013 for a characteristic‐earthquake magnitude–frequency distribution. Our decisions about the existence of characteristic earthquakes and how large earthquakes nucleate have a first‐order effect on the probabilities obtained from short‐term clustering models for these large events.

  5. Building the Southern California Earthquake Center

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jordan, T. H.; Henyey, T.; McRaney, J. K.

    2004-12-01

    Kei Aki was the founding director of the Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC), a multi-institutional collaboration formed in 1991 as a Science and Technology Center (STC) under the National Science Foundation (NSF) and the U. S. Geological Survey (USGS). Aki and his colleagues articulated a system-level vision for the Center: investigations by disciplinary working groups would be woven together into a "Master Model" for Southern California. In this presentation, we will outline how the Master-Model concept has evolved and how SCEC's structure has adapted to meet scientific challenges of system-level earthquake science. In its first decade, SCEC conducted two regional imaging experiments (LARSE I & II); published the "Phase-N" reports on (1) the Landers earthquake, (2) a new earthquake rupture forecast for Southern California, and (3) new models for seismic attenuation and site effects; it developed two prototype "Community Models" (the Crustal Motion Map and Community Velocity Model) and, perhaps most important, sustained a long-term, multi-institutional, interdisciplinary collaboration. The latter fostered pioneering numerical simulations of earthquake ruptures, fault interactions, and wave propagation. These accomplishments provided the impetus for a successful proposal in 2000 to reestablish SCEC as a "stand alone" center under NSF/USGS auspices. SCEC remains consistent with the founders' vision: it continues to advance seismic hazard analysis through a system-level synthesis that is based on community models and an ever expanding array of information technology. SCEC now represents a fully articulated "collaboratory" for earthquake science, and many of its features are extensible to other active-fault systems and other system-level collaborations. We will discuss the implications of the SCEC experience for EarthScope, the USGS's program in seismic hazard analysis, NSF's nascent Cyberinfrastructure Initiative, and other large collaboratory programs.

  6. Earthquake damage to underground facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pratt, H.R.; Stephenson, D.E.; Zandt, G.; Bouchon, M.; Hustrulid, W.A.

    1980-01-01

    In order to assess the seismic risk for an underground facility, a data base was established and analyzed to evaluate the potential for seismic disturbance. Substantial damage to underground facilities is usually the result of displacements primarily along pre-existing faults and fractures, or at the surface entrance to these facilities. Evidence of this comes from both earthquakes and large explosions. Therefore, the displacement due to earthquakes as a function of depth is important in the evaluation of the hazard to underground facilities. To evaluate potential displacements due to seismic effects of block motions along pre-existing or induced fractures, the displacement fields surrounding two types of faults were investigated. Analytical models were used to determine relative displacements of shafts and near-surface displacement of large rock masses. Numerical methods were used to determine the displacement fields associated with pure strike-slip and vertical normal faults. Results are presented as displacements for various fault lengths as a function of depth and distance. This provides input to determine potential displacements in terms of depth and distance for underground facilities, important for assessing potential sites and design parameters

  7. Investigating Landslides Caused by Earthquakes A Historical Review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keefer, David K.

    relatively small, and one of the most pressing needs in this area of research is for the complete documentation of landslides triggered by many more earthquakes in a wider variety of environments.

  8. The SCEC/USGS dynamic earthquake rupture code verification exercise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harris, R.A.; Barall, M.; Archuleta, R.; Dunham, E.; Aagaard, Brad T.; Ampuero, J.-P.; Bhat, H.; Cruz-Atienza, Victor M.; Dalguer, L.; Dawson, P.; Day, S.; Duan, B.; Ely, G.; Kaneko, Y.; Kase, Y.; Lapusta, N.; Liu, Yajing; Ma, S.; Oglesby, D.; Olsen, K.; Pitarka, A.; Song, S.; Templeton, E.

    2009-01-01

    Numerical simulations of earthquake rupture dynamics are now common, yet it has been difficult to test the validity of these simulations because there have been few field observations and no analytic solutions with which to compare the results. This paper describes the Southern California Earthquake Center/U.S. Geological Survey (SCEC/USGS) Dynamic Earthquake Rupture Code Verification Exercise, where codes that simulate spontaneous rupture dynamics in three dimensions are evaluated and the results produced by these codes are compared using Web-based tools. This is the first time that a broad and rigorous examination of numerous spontaneous rupture codes has been performed—a significant advance in this science. The automated process developed to attain this achievement provides for a future where testing of codes is easily accomplished.Scientists who use computer simulations to understand earthquakes utilize a range of techniques. Most of these assume that earthquakes are caused by slip at depth on faults in the Earth, but hereafter the strategies vary. Among the methods used in earthquake mechanics studies are kinematic approaches and dynamic approaches.The kinematic approach uses a computer code that prescribes the spatial and temporal evolution of slip on the causative fault (or faults). These types of simulations are very helpful, especially since they can be used in seismic data inversions to relate the ground motions recorded in the field to slip on the fault(s) at depth. However, these kinematic solutions generally provide no insight into the physics driving the fault slip or information about why the involved fault(s) slipped that much (or that little). In other words, these kinematic solutions may lack information about the physical dynamics of earthquake rupture that will be most helpful in forecasting future events.To help address this issue, some researchers use computer codes to numerically simulate earthquakes and construct dynamic, spontaneous

  9. Excel, Earthquakes, and Moneyball: exploring Cascadia earthquake probabilities using spreadsheets and baseball analogies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campbell, M. R.; Salditch, L.; Brooks, E. M.; Stein, S.; Spencer, B. D.

    2017-12-01

    Much recent media attention focuses on Cascadia's earthquake hazard. A widely cited magazine article starts "An earthquake will destroy a sizable portion of the coastal Northwest. The question is when." Stories include statements like "a massive earthquake is overdue", "in the next 50 years, there is a 1-in-10 chance a "really big one" will erupt," or "the odds of the big Cascadia earthquake happening in the next fifty years are roughly one in three." These lead students to ask where the quoted probabilities come from and what they mean. These probability estimates involve two primary choices: what data are used to describe when past earthquakes happened and what models are used to forecast when future earthquakes will happen. The data come from a 10,000-year record of large paleoearthquakes compiled from subsidence data on land and turbidites, offshore deposits recording submarine slope failure. Earthquakes seem to have happened in clusters of four or five events, separated by gaps. Earthquakes within a cluster occur more frequently and regularly than in the full record. Hence the next earthquake is more likely if we assume that we are in the recent cluster that started about 1700 years ago, than if we assume the cluster is over. Students can explore how changing assumptions drastically changes probability estimates using easy-to-write and display spreadsheets, like those shown below. Insight can also come from baseball analogies. The cluster issue is like deciding whether to assume that a hitter's performance in the next game is better described by his lifetime record, or by the past few games, since he may be hitting unusually well or in a slump. The other big choice is whether to assume that the probability of an earthquake is constant with time, or is small immediately after one occurs and then grows with time. This is like whether to assume that a player's performance is the same from year to year, or changes over their career. Thus saying "the chance of

  10. Electrical resistivity variations associated with earthquakes on the san andreas fault.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mazzella, A; Morrison, H F

    1974-09-06

    A 24 percent precursory change in apparent electrical resistivity was observed before a magnitude 3.9 earthquake of strike-slip nature on the San Andreas fault in central California. The experimental configuration and numerical calculations suggest that the change is associated with a volume at depth rather than some near-surface phenomenon. The character and duration of the precursor period agree well with those of other earthquake studies and support a dilatant earthquake mechanism model.

  11. A prospective earthquake forecast experiment in the western Pacific

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eberhard, David A. J.; Zechar, J. Douglas; Wiemer, Stefan

    2012-09-01

    Since the beginning of 2009, the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) has been conducting an earthquake forecast experiment in the western Pacific. This experiment is an extension of the Kagan-Jackson experiments begun 15 years earlier and is a prototype for future global earthquake predictability experiments. At the beginning of each year, seismicity models make a spatially gridded forecast of the number of Mw≥ 5.8 earthquakes expected in the next year. For the three participating statistical models, we analyse the first two years of this experiment. We use likelihood-based metrics to evaluate the consistency of the forecasts with the observed target earthquakes and we apply measures based on Student's t-test and the Wilcoxon signed-rank test to compare the forecasts. Overall, a simple smoothed seismicity model (TripleS) performs the best, but there are some exceptions that indicate continued experiments are vital to fully understand the stability of these models, the robustness of model selection and, more generally, earthquake predictability in this region. We also estimate uncertainties in our results that are caused by uncertainties in earthquake location and seismic moment. Our uncertainty estimates are relatively small and suggest that the evaluation metrics are relatively robust. Finally, we consider the implications of our results for a global earthquake forecast experiment.

  12. Global correlations between maximum magnitudes of subduction zone interface thrust earthquakes and physical parameters of subduction zones

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schellart, W. P.; Rawlinson, N.

    2013-01-01

    The maximum earthquake magnitude recorded for subduction zone plate boundaries varies considerably on Earth, with some subduction zone segments producing giant subduction zone thrust earthquakes (e.g. Chile, Alaska, Sumatra-Andaman, Japan) and others producing relatively small earthquakes (e.g.

  13. Short presentation on some researches activities about near field earthquakes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Donald, John

    2002-01-01

    The major hazard posed by earthquakes is often thought to be due to moderate to large magnitude events. However, there have been many cases where earthquakes of moderate and even small magnitude have caused very significant destruction when they have coincided with population centres. Even though the area of intense ground shaking caused by such events is generally small, the epicentral motions can be severe enough to cause damage even in well-engineered structures. Two issues are addressed here, the first being the identification of the minimum earthquake magnitude likely to cause damage to engineered structures and the limits of the near-field for small-to-moderate magnitude earthquakes. The second issue addressed is whether features of near-field ground motions such as directivity, which can significantly enhance the destructive potential, occur in small-to-moderate magnitude events. The accelerograms from the 1986 San Salvador (El Salvador) earthquake indicate that it may be non conservative to assume that near-field directivity effects only need to be considered for earthquakes of moment magnitude M 6.5 and greater. (author)

  14. Foreshock occurrence before large earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reasenberg, P.A.

    1999-01-01

    Rates of foreshock occurrence involving shallow M ??? 6 and M ??? 7 mainshocks and M ??? 5 foreshocks were measured in two worldwide catalogs over ???20-year intervals. The overall rates observed are similar to ones measured in previous worldwide and regional studies when they are normalized for the ranges of magnitude difference they each span. The observed worldwide rates were compared to a generic model of earthquake clustering based on patterns of small and moderate aftershocks in California. The aftershock model was extended to the case of moderate foreshocks preceding large mainshocks. Overall, the observed worldwide foreshock rates exceed the extended California generic model by a factor of ???2. Significant differences in foreshock rate were found among subsets of earthquakes defined by their focal mechanism and tectonic region, with the rate before thrust events higher and the rate before strike-slip events lower than the worldwide average. Among the thrust events, a large majority, composed of events located in shallow subduction zones, had a high foreshock rate, while a minority, located in continental thrust belts, had a low rate. These differences may explain why previous surveys have found low foreshock rates among thrust events in California (especially southern California), while the worldwide observations suggests the opposite: California, lacking an active subduction zone in most of its territory, and including a region of mountain-building thrusts in the south, reflects the low rate apparently typical for continental thrusts, while the worldwide observations, dominated by shallow subduction zone events, are foreshock-rich. If this is so, then the California generic model may significantly underestimate the conditional probability for a very large (M ??? 8) earthquake following a potential (M ??? 7) foreshock in Cascadia. The magnitude differences among the identified foreshock-mainshock pairs in the Harvard catalog are consistent with a uniform

  15. Indoor radon and earthquake

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saghatelyan, E.; Petrosyan, L.; Aghbalyan, Yu.; Baburyan, M.; Araratyan, L.

    2004-01-01

    For the first time on the basis of the Spitak earthquake of December 1988 (Armenia, December 1988) experience it is found out that the earthquake causes intensive and prolonged radon splashes which, rapidly dispersing in the open space of close-to-earth atmosphere, are contrastingly displayed in covered premises (dwellings, schools, kindergartens) even if they are at considerable distance from the earthquake epicenter, and this multiplies the radiation influence on the population. The interval of splashes includes the period from the first fore-shock to the last after-shock, i.e. several months. The area affected by radiation is larger vs. Armenia's territory. The scale of this impact on population is 12 times higher than the number of people injured in Spitak, Leninakan and other settlements (toll of injured - 25 000 people, radiation-induced diseases in people - over 300 000). The influence of radiation directly correlates with the earthquake force. Such a conclusion is underpinned by indoor radon monitoring data for Yerevan since 1987 (120 km from epicenter) 5450 measurements and multivariate analysis with identification of cause-and-effect linkages between geo dynamics of indoor radon under stable and conditions of Earth crust, behavior of radon in different geological mediums during earthquakes, levels of room radon concentrations and effective equivalent dose of radiation impact of radiation dose on health and statistical data on public health provided by the Ministry of Health. The following hitherto unexplained facts can be considered as consequences of prolonged radiation influence on human organism: long-lasting state of apathy and indifference typical of the population of Armenia during the period of more than a year after the earthquake, prevalence of malignant cancer forms in disaster zones, dominating lung cancer and so on. All urban territories of seismically active regions are exposed to the threat of natural earthquake-provoked radiation influence

  16. Validation of a solid-fluid interaction computer program for the earthquake analysis of nuclear power reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dubois, J.; Descleve, P.; Dupont, Y.

    1978-01-01

    This paper evaluates a numerical method for the analysis of the mechanical response of nuclear reactor components composed of steel structures and fluids, during normal or accidental conditions. The method consists of computing the mode shapes and frequencies of the coupled system, with the assumption of small acoustic movements and incompressibility for the fluid. The paper validates the theory and its implementation in the computer program NOVAX (axisymmetric geometry, non axisymmetric loads and response for earthquake response studies) by comparison with known theoretical and experimental results. (author)

  17. Numerical relativity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Piran, T.

    1982-01-01

    There are many recent developments in numerical relativity, but there remain important unsolved theoretical and practical problems. The author reviews existing numerical approaches to solution of the exact Einstein equations. A framework for classification and comparison of different numerical schemes is presented. Recent numerical codes are compared using this framework. The discussion focuses on new developments and on currently open questions, excluding a review of numerical techniques. (Auth.)

  18. Adaptively smoothed seismicity earthquake forecasts for Italy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yan Y. Kagan

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available We present a model for estimation of the probabilities of future earthquakes of magnitudes m ≥ 4.95 in Italy. This model is a modified version of that proposed for California, USA, by Helmstetter et al. [2007] and Werner et al. [2010a], and it approximates seismicity using a spatially heterogeneous, temporally homogeneous Poisson point process. The temporal, spatial and magnitude dimensions are entirely decoupled. Magnitudes are independently and identically distributed according to a tapered Gutenberg-Richter magnitude distribution. We have estimated the spatial distribution of future seismicity by smoothing the locations of past earthquakes listed in two Italian catalogs: a short instrumental catalog, and a longer instrumental and historic catalog. The bandwidth of the adaptive spatial kernel is estimated by optimizing the predictive power of the kernel estimate of the spatial earthquake density in retrospective forecasts. When available and reliable, we used small earthquakes of m ≥ 2.95 to reveal active fault structures and 29 probable future epicenters. By calibrating the model with these two catalogs of different durations to create two forecasts, we intend to quantify the loss (or gain of predictability incurred when only a short, but recent, data record is available. Both forecasts were scaled to five and ten years, and have been submitted to the Italian prospective forecasting experiment of the global Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP. An earlier forecast from the model was submitted by Helmstetter et al. [2007] to the Regional Earthquake Likelihood Model (RELM experiment in California, and with more than half of the five-year experimental period over, the forecast has performed better than the others.

  19. Experimental evidence that thrust earthquake ruptures might open faults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gabuchian, Vahe; Rosakis, Ares J; Bhat, Harsha S; Madariaga, Raúl; Kanamori, Hiroo

    2017-05-18

    Many of Earth's great earthquakes occur on thrust faults. These earthquakes predominantly occur within subduction zones, such as the 2011 moment magnitude 9.0 eathquake in Tohoku-Oki, Japan, or along large collision zones, such as the 1999 moment magnitude 7.7 earthquake in Chi-Chi, Taiwan. Notably, these two earthquakes had a maximum slip that was very close to the surface. This contributed to the destructive tsunami that occurred during the Tohoku-Oki event and to the large amount of structural damage caused by the Chi-Chi event. The mechanism that results in such large slip near the surface is poorly understood as shallow parts of thrust faults are considered to be frictionally stable. Here we use earthquake rupture experiments to reveal the existence of a torquing mechanism of thrust fault ruptures near the free surface that causes them to unclamp and slip large distances. Complementary numerical modelling of the experiments confirms that the hanging-wall wedge undergoes pronounced rotation in one direction as the earthquake rupture approaches the free surface, and this torque is released as soon as the rupture breaks the free surface, resulting in the unclamping and violent 'flapping' of the hanging-wall wedge. Our results imply that the shallow extent of the seismogenic zone of a subducting interface is not fixed and can extend up to the trench during great earthquakes through a torquing mechanism.

  20. Rupture, waves and earthquakes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uenishi, Koji

    2017-01-01

    Normally, an earthquake is considered as a phenomenon of wave energy radiation by rupture (fracture) of solid Earth. However, the physics of dynamic process around seismic sources, which may play a crucial role in the occurrence of earthquakes and generation of strong waves, has not been fully understood yet. Instead, much of former investigation in seismology evaluated earthquake characteristics in terms of kinematics that does not directly treat such dynamic aspects and usually excludes the influence of high-frequency wave components over 1 Hz. There are countless valuable research outcomes obtained through this kinematics-based approach, but "extraordinary" phenomena that are difficult to be explained by this conventional description have been found, for instance, on the occasion of the 1995 Hyogo-ken Nanbu, Japan, earthquake, and more detailed study on rupture and wave dynamics, namely, possible mechanical characteristics of (1) rupture development around seismic sources, (2) earthquake-induced structural failures and (3) wave interaction that connects rupture (1) and failures (2), would be indispensable.

  1. Earthquakes and Earthquake Engineering. LC Science Tracer Bullet.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buydos, John F., Comp.

    An earthquake is a shaking of the ground resulting from a disturbance in the earth's interior. Seismology is the (1) study of earthquakes; (2) origin, propagation, and energy of seismic phenomena; (3) prediction of these phenomena; and (4) investigation of the structure of the earth. Earthquake engineering or engineering seismology includes the…

  2. Testing earthquake source inversion methodologies

    KAUST Repository

    Page, Morgan T.; Mai, Paul Martin; Schorlemmer, Danijel

    2011-01-01

    Source Inversion Validation Workshop; Palm Springs, California, 11-12 September 2010; Nowadays earthquake source inversions are routinely performed after large earthquakes and represent a key connection between recorded seismic and geodetic data

  3. Earthquakes; May-June 1982

    Science.gov (United States)

    Person, W.J.

    1982-01-01

    There were four major earthquakes (7.0-7.9) during this reporting period: two struck in Mexico, one in El Salvador, and one in teh Kuril Islands. Mexico, El Salvador, and China experienced fatalities from earthquakes.

  4. The 2012 Mw5.6 earthquake in Sofia seismogenic zone - is it a slow earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raykova, Plamena; Solakov, Dimcho; Slavcheva, Krasimira; Simeonova, Stela; Aleksandrova, Irena

    2017-04-01

    Recently our understanding of tectonic faulting has been shaken by the discoveries of seismic tremor, low frequency earthquakes, slow slip events, and other models of fault slip. These phenomenas represent models of failure that were thought to be non-existent and theoretically impossible only a few years ago. Slow earthquakes are seismic phenomena in which the rupture of geological faults in the earth's crust occurs gradually without creating strong tremors. Despite the growing number of observations of slow earthquakes their origin remains unresolved. Studies show that the duration of slow earthquakes ranges from a few seconds to a few hundred seconds. The regular earthquakes with which most people are familiar release a burst of built-up stress in seconds, slow earthquakes release energy in ways that do little damage. This study focus on the characteristics of the Mw5.6 earthquake occurred in Sofia seismic zone on May 22nd, 2012. The Sofia area is the most populated, industrial and cultural region of Bulgaria that faces considerable earthquake risk. The Sofia seismic zone is located in South-western Bulgaria - the area with pronounce tectonic activity and proved crustal movement. In 19th century the city of Sofia (situated in the centre of the Sofia seismic zone) has experienced two strong earthquakes with epicentral intensity of 10 MSK. During the 20th century the strongest event occurred in the vicinity of the city of Sofia is the 1917 earthquake with MS=5.3 (I0=7-8 MSK64).The 2012 quake occurs in an area characterized by a long quiescence (of 95 years) for moderate events. Moreover, a reduced number of small earthquakes have also been registered in the recent past. The Mw5.6 earthquake is largely felt on the territory of Bulgaria and neighbouring countries. No casualties and severe injuries have been reported. Mostly moderate damages were observed in the cities of Pernik and Sofia and their surroundings. These observations could be assumed indicative for a

  5. Earthquake Source Spectral Study beyond the Omega-Square Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uchide, T.; Imanishi, K.

    2017-12-01

    Earthquake source spectra have been used for characterizing earthquake source processes quantitatively and, at the same time, simply, so that we can analyze the source spectra for many earthquakes, especially for small earthquakes, at once and compare them each other. A standard model for the source spectra is the omega-square model, which has the flat spectrum and the falloff inversely proportional to the square of frequencies at low and high frequencies, respectively, which are bordered by a corner frequency. The corner frequency has often been converted to the stress drop under the assumption of circular crack models. However, recent studies claimed the existence of another corner frequency [Denolle and Shearer, 2016; Uchide and Imanishi, 2016] thanks to the recent development of seismic networks. We have found that many earthquakes in areas other than the area studied by Uchide and Imanishi [2016] also have source spectra deviating from the omega-square model. Another part of the earthquake spectra we now focus on is the falloff rate at high frequencies, which will affect the seismic energy estimation [e.g., Hirano and Yagi, 2017]. In June, 2016, we deployed seven velocity seismometers in the northern Ibaraki prefecture, where the shallow crustal seismicity mainly with normal-faulting events was activated by the 2011 Tohoku-oki earthquake. We have recorded seismograms at 1000 samples per second and at a short distance from the source, so that we can investigate the high-frequency components of the earthquake source spectra. Although we are still in the stage of discovery and confirmation of the deviation from the standard omega-square model, the update of the earthquake source spectrum model will help us systematically extract more information on the earthquake source process.

  6. Uplift and Subsidence Associated with the Great Aceh-Andaman Earthquake of 2004

    Science.gov (United States)

    2006-01-01

    The magnitude 9.2 Indian Ocean earthquake of December 26, 2004, produced broad regions of uplift and subsidence. In order to define the lateral extent and the downdip limit of rupture, scientists from Caltech, Pasadena, Calif.; NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, Calif.; Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, Calif.; the U.S. Geological Survey, Pasadena, Calif.; and the Research Center for Geotechnology, Indonesian Institute of Sciences, Bandung, Indonesia; first needed to define the pivot line separating those regions. Interpretation of satellite imagery and a tidal model were one of the key tools used to do this. These pre-Sumatra earthquake (a) and post-Sumatra earthquake (b) images of North Sentinel Island in the Indian Ocean, acquired from the Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) instrument on NASA's Terra spacecraft, show emergence of the coral reef surrounding the island following the earthquake. The tide was 30 plus or minus 14 centimeters lower in the pre-earthquake image (acquired November 21, 2000) than in the post-earthquake image (acquired February 20, 2005), requiring a minimum of 30 centimeters of uplift at this locality. Observations from an Indian Coast Guard helicopter on the northwest coast of the island suggest that the actual uplift is on the order of 1 to 2 meters at this site. In figures (c) and (d), pre-earthquake and post-earthquake ASTER images of a small island off the northwest coast of Rutland Island, 38 kilometers east of North Sentinel Island, show submergence of the coral reef surrounding the island. The tide was higher in the pre-earthquake image (acquired January 1, 2004) than in the post-earthquake image (acquired February 4, 2005), requiring subsidence at this locality. The pivot line must run between North Sentinel and Rutland islands. Note that the scale for the North Sentinel Island images differs from that for the Rutland Island images. The tidal model used for this study was

  7. Sensing the earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bichisao, Marta; Stallone, Angela

    2017-04-01

    Making science visual plays a crucial role in the process of building knowledge. In this view, art can considerably facilitate the representation of the scientific content, by offering a different perspective on how a specific problem could be approached. Here we explore the possibility of presenting the earthquake process through visual dance. From a choreographer's point of view, the focus is always on the dynamic relationships between moving objects. The observed spatial patterns (coincidences, repetitions, double and rhythmic configurations) suggest how objects organize themselves in the environment and what are the principles underlying that organization. The identified set of rules is then implemented as a basis for the creation of a complex rhythmic and visual dance system. Recently, scientists have turned seismic waves into sound and animations, introducing the possibility of "feeling" the earthquakes. We try to implement these results into a choreographic model with the aim to convert earthquake sound to a visual dance system, which could return a transmedia representation of the earthquake process. In particular, we focus on a possible method to translate and transfer the metric language of seismic sound and animations into body language. The objective is to involve the audience into a multisensory exploration of the earthquake phenomenon, through the stimulation of the hearing, eyesight and perception of the movements (neuromotor system). In essence, the main goal of this work is to develop a method for a simultaneous visual and auditory representation of a seismic event by means of a structured choreographic model. This artistic representation could provide an original entryway into the physics of earthquakes.

  8. Rotation of vertically oriented objects during earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hinzen, Klaus-G.

    2012-10-01

    Vertically oriented objects, such as tombstones, monuments, columns, and stone lanterns, are often observed to shift and rotate during earthquake ground motion. Such observations are usually limited to the mesoseismal zone. Whether near-field rotational ground motion components are necessary in addition to pure translational movements to explain the observed rotations is an open question. We summarize rotation data from seven earthquakes between 1925 and 2009 and perform analog and numeric rotation testing with vertically oriented objects. The free-rocking motion of a marble block on a sliding table is disturbed by a pulse in the direction orthogonal to the rocking motion. When the impulse is sufficiently strong and occurs at the `right' moment, it induces significant rotation of the block. Numeric experiments of a free-rocking block show that the initiation of vertical block rotation by a cycloidal acceleration pulse applied orthogonal to the rocking axis depends on the amplitude of the pulse and its phase relation to the rocking cycle. Rotation occurs when the pulse acceleration exceeds the threshold necessary to provoke rocking of a resting block, and the rocking block approaches its equilibrium position. Experiments with blocks subjected to full 3D strong motion signals measured during the 2009 L'Aquila earthquake confirm the observations from the tests with analytic ground motions. Significant differences in the rotational behavior of a monolithic block and two stacked blocks exist.

  9. Turkish Children's Ideas about Earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simsek, Canan Lacin

    2007-01-01

    Earthquake, a natural disaster, is among the fundamental problems of many countries. If people know how to protect themselves from earthquake and arrange their life styles in compliance with this, damage they will suffer will reduce to that extent. In particular, a good training regarding earthquake to be received in primary schools is considered…

  10. Earthquakes, May-June 1991

    Science.gov (United States)

    Person, W.J.

    1992-01-01

    One major earthquake occurred during this reporting period. This was a magntidue 7.1 in Indonesia (Minahassa Peninsula) on June 20. Earthquake-related deaths were reported in the Western Caucasus (Georgia, USSR) on May 3 and June 15. One earthquake-related death was also reported El Salvador on June 21. 

  11. Organizational changes at Earthquakes & Volcanoes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gordon, David W.

    1992-01-01

    Primary responsibility for the preparation of Earthquakes & Volcanoes within the Geological Survey has shifted from the Office of Scientific Publications to the Office of Earthquakes, Volcanoes, and Engineering (OEVE). As a consequence of this reorganization, Henry Spall has stepepd down as Science Editor for Earthquakes & Volcanoes(E&V).

  12. The 1976 Tangshan earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fang, Wang

    1979-01-01

    The Tangshan earthquake of 1976 was one of the largest earthquakes in recent years. It occurred on July 28 at 3:42 a.m, Beijing (Peking) local time, and had magnitude 7.8, focal depth of 15 kilometers, and an epicentral intensity of XI on the New Chinese Seismic Intensity Scale; it caused serious damage and loss of life in this densely populated industrial city. Now, with the help of people from all over China, the city of Tangshan is being rebuild. 

  13. [Earthquakes in El Salvador].

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Ville de Goyet, C

    2001-02-01

    The Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) has 25 years of experience dealing with major natural disasters. This piece provides a preliminary review of the events taking place in the weeks following the major earthquakes in El Salvador on 13 January and 13 February 2001. It also describes the lessons that have been learned over the last 25 years and the impact that the El Salvador earthquakes and other disasters have had on the health of the affected populations. Topics covered include mass-casualties management, communicable diseases, water supply, managing donations and international assistance, damages to the health-facilities infrastructure, mental health, and PAHO's role in disasters.

  14. Earthquakes of Garhwal Himalaya region of NW Himalaya, India: A study of relocated earthquakes and their seismogenic source and stress

    Science.gov (United States)

    R, A. P.; Paul, A.; Singh, S.

    2017-12-01

    Since the continent-continent collision 55 Ma, the Himalaya has accommodated 2000 km of convergence along its arc. The strain energy is being accumulated at a rate of 37-44 mm/yr and releases at time as earthquakes. The Garhwal Himalaya is located at the western side of a Seismic Gap, where a great earthquake is overdue atleast since 200 years. This seismic gap (Central Seismic Gap: CSG) with 52% probability for a future great earthquake is located between the rupture zones of two significant/great earthquakes, viz. the 1905 Kangra earthquake of M 7.8 and the 1934 Bihar-Nepal earthquake of M 8.0; and the most recent one, the 2015 Gorkha earthquake of M 7.8 is in the eastern side of this seismic gap (CSG). The Garhwal Himalaya is one of the ideal locations of the Himalaya where all the major Himalayan structures and the Himalayan Seimsicity Belt (HSB) can ably be described and studied. In the present study, we are presenting the spatio-temporal analysis of the relocated local micro-moderate earthquakes, recorded by a seismicity monitoring network, which is operational since, 2007. The earthquake locations are relocated using the HypoDD (double difference hypocenter method for earthquake relocations) program. The dataset from July, 2007- September, 2015 have been used in this study to estimate their spatio-temporal relationships, moment tensor (MT) solutions for the earthquakes of M>3.0, stress tensors and their interactions. We have also used the composite focal mechanism solutions for small earthquakes. The majority of the MT solutions show thrust type mechanism and located near the mid-crustal-ramp (MCR) structure of the detachment surface at 8-15 km depth beneath the outer lesser Himalaya and higher Himalaya regions. The prevailing stress has been identified to be compressional towards NNE-SSW, which is the direction of relative plate motion between the India and Eurasia continental plates. The low friction coefficient estimated along with the stress inversions

  15. Geomorphic legacy of medieval Himalayan earthquakes in the Pokhara Valley

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwanghart, Wolfgang; Bernhardt, Anne; Stolle, Amelie; Hoelzmann, Philipp; Adhikari, Basanta R.; Andermann, Christoff; Tofelde, Stefanie; Merchel, Silke; Rugel, Georg; Fort, Monique; Korup, Oliver

    2016-04-01

    preservation potential. Further studies may wish to seek such remnants of prehistoric earthquakes using extensive sedimentological work as well as numerical age control.

  16. Earthquake Culture: A Significant Element in Earthquake Disaster Risk Assessment and Earthquake Disaster Risk Management

    OpenAIRE

    Ibrion, Mihaela

    2018-01-01

    This book chapter brings to attention the dramatic impact of large earthquake disasters on local communities and society and highlights the necessity of building and enhancing the earthquake culture. Iran was considered as a research case study and fifteen large earthquake disasters in Iran were investigated and analyzed over more than a century-time period. It was found that the earthquake culture in Iran was and is still conditioned by many factors or parameters which are not integrated and...

  17. Experimental Validation of a Numerical Model for Three-Dimensional High-Speed Railway Bridge Analysis by Comparison with a Small-Scale Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sneideris, J.; Bucinskas, Paulius; Agapii, L.

    2015-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to perform dynamic analysis of a multi-span railway bridge interacting with the underlying soil. A small-scale model of a bridge structure is constructed for experimental testing and the results are compared with a computational model. The computational model in this paper...... dimensional 10-degrees-of-freedom system. The subsoil model utilizes Green’s function for a horizontally layered half-space. The small-scale experimental model consists of bridge deck, columns and footings which are made from Plexiglas. An electric vehicle travels along the bridge deck on a track to simulate...

  18. The mechanism of earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Kunquan; Cao, Zexian; Hou, Meiying; Jiang, Zehui; Shen, Rong; Wang, Qiang; Sun, Gang; Liu, Jixing

    2018-03-01

    The physical mechanism of earthquake remains a challenging issue to be clarified. Seismologists used to attribute shallow earthquake to the elastic rebound of crustal rocks. The seismic energy calculated following the elastic rebound theory and with the data of experimental results upon rocks, however, shows a large discrepancy with measurement — a fact that has been dubbed as “the heat flow paradox”. For the intermediate-focus and deep-focus earthquakes, both occurring in the region of the mantle, there is not reasonable explanation either. This paper will discuss the physical mechanism of earthquake from a new perspective, starting from the fact that both the crust and the mantle are discrete collective system of matters with slow dynamics, as well as from the basic principles of physics, especially some new concepts of condensed matter physics emerged in the recent years. (1) Stress distribution in earth’s crust: Without taking the tectonic force into account, according to the rheological principle of “everything flows”, the normal stress and transverse stress must be balanced due to the effect of gravitational pressure over a long period of time, thus no differential stress in the original crustal rocks is to be expected. The tectonic force is successively transferred and accumulated via stick-slip motions of rock blocks to squeeze the fault gouge and then exerted upon other rock blocks. The superposition of such additional lateral tectonic force and the original stress gives rise to the real-time stress in crustal rocks. The mechanical characteristics of fault gouge are different from rocks as it consists of granular matters. The elastic moduli of the fault gouges are much less than those of rocks, and they become larger with increasing pressure. This peculiarity of the fault gouge leads to a tectonic force increasing with depth in a nonlinear fashion. The distribution and variation of the tectonic stress in the crust are specified. (2) The

  19. Broadband Ground Motion Reconstruction for the Kanto Basin during the 1923 Kanto Earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sekiguchi, Haruko; Yoshimi, Masayuki

    2011-03-01

    Ground motions of the 1923 Kanto Earthquake inside the Kanto Basin are numerically simulated in a wide frequency range (0-10 Hz) based on new knowledge of the earthquake's source processes, the sedimentary structure of the basin, and techniques for generating broadband source models of great earthquakes. The Kanto Earthquake remains one of the most important exemplars for ground motion prediction in Japan due to its size, faulting geometry, and location beneath the densely populated Kanto sedimentary basin. We reconstruct a broadband source model of the 1923 Kanto Earthquake from inversion results by introducing small-scale heterogeneities. The corresponding ground motions are simulated using a hybrid technique comprising the following four calculations: (1) low-frequency ground motion of the engineering basement, modeled using a finite difference method; (2) high-frequency ground motion of the engineering basement, modeled using a stochastic Green's function method; (3) total ground motion of the engineering basement (i.e. 1 + 2); and (4) ground motion at the surface in response to the total basement ground motion. We employ a recently developed three-dimensional (3D) velocity structure model of the Kanto Basin that incorporates prospecting data, microtremor observations and measurements derived from strong ground motion records. Our calculations reveal peak ground velocities (PGV) exceeding 50 cm/s in the area above the fault plane: to the south, where the fault plane is shallowest, PGV reaches 150-200 cm/s at the engineering basement and 200-250 cm/s at the surface. Intensity 7, the maximum value in the Japan Meteorological Agency's intensity scale, is calculated to have occurred widely in Sagami Bay, which corresponds well with observed house-collapse rates due to the 1923 event. The modeling reveals a pronounced forward directivity effect for the area lying above the southern, shallow part of the fault plane. The high PGV and intensity seen above the

  20. The origin of high frequency radiation in earthquakes and the geometry of faulting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Madariaga, R.

    2004-12-01

    In a seminal paper of 1967 Kei Aki discovered the scaling law of earthquake spectra and showed that, among other things, the high frequency decay was of type omega-squared. This implies that high frequency displacement amplitudes are proportional to a characteristic length of the fault, and radiated energy scales with the cube of the fault dimension, just like seismic moment. Later in the seventies, it was found out that a simple explanation for this frequency dependence of spectra was that high frequencies were generated by stopping phases, waves emitted by changes in speed of the rupture front as it propagates along the fault, but this did not explain the scaling of high frequency waves with fault length. Earthquake energy balance is such that, ignoring attenuation, radiated energy is the change in strain energy minus energy released for overcoming friction. Until recently the latter was considered to be a material property that did not scale with fault size. Yet, in another classical paper Aki and Das estimated in the late 70s that energy release rate also scaled with earthquake size, because earthquakes were often stopped by barriers or changed rupture speed at them. This observation was independently confirmed in the late 90s by Ide and Takeo and Olsen et al who found that energy release rates for Kobe and Landers were in the order of a MJ/m2, implying that Gc necessarily scales with earthquake size, because if this was a material property, small earthquakes would never occur. Using both simple analytical and numerical models developed by Addia-Bedia and Aochi and Madariaga, we examine the consequence of these observations for the scaling of high frequency waves with fault size. We demonstrate using some classical results by Kostrov, Husseiny and Freund that high frequency energy flow measures energy release rate and is generated when ruptures change velocity (both direction and speed) at fault kinks or jogs. Our results explain why super shear ruptures are

  1. Numerical analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Khabaza, I M

    1960-01-01

    Numerical Analysis is an elementary introduction to numerical analysis, its applications, limitations, and pitfalls. Methods suitable for digital computers are emphasized, but some desk computations are also described. Topics covered range from the use of digital computers in numerical work to errors in computations using desk machines, finite difference methods, and numerical solution of ordinary differential equations. This book is comprised of eight chapters and begins with an overview of the importance of digital computers in numerical analysis, followed by a discussion on errors in comput

  2. Numerical relativity

    CERN Document Server

    Shibata, Masaru

    2016-01-01

    This book is composed of two parts: First part describes basics in numerical relativity, that is, the formulations and methods for a solution of Einstein's equation and general relativistic matter field equations. This part will be helpful for beginners of numerical relativity who would like to understand the content of numerical relativity and its background. The second part focuses on the application of numerical relativity. A wide variety of scientific numerical results are introduced focusing in particular on the merger of binary neutron stars and black holes.

  3. The performance of the Armenia Nuclear Power Plant and power facilities in the 1988 Armenia earthquake

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yanev, P.I.

    1989-01-01

    The speaker presents the geology, seismology, and effects of the Armenian earthquake which occured on December 7,1988. This is a highly industrialized area with numerous power plants, including one nuclear power plant in addition to several conventional plants. The response of the nuclear plant to the earthquake is described in detail, and the speaker concludes with an outline of suggestions which could help with earthquake preparedness in the United States, particularly in Puget Sound, Washington; along the New Madrid in Missouri and Tennessee;in the Charleston ,South Carolina area; and in the Salt Lake City region of Utah. All of these areas have similar earthquake potential, building types, absence of earthquake preparedness programs, the possibility of an earthquake of comparable proportions as Armenia

  4. A way to synchronize models with seismic faults for earthquake forecasting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    González, Á.; Gómez, J.B.; Vázquez-Prada, M.

    2006-01-01

    Numerical models are starting to be used for determining the future behaviour of seismic faults and fault networks. Their final goal would be to forecast future large earthquakes. In order to use them for this task, it is necessary to synchronize each model with the current status of the actual....... Earthquakes, though, provide indirect but measurable clues of the stress and strain status in the lithosphere, which should be helpful for the synchronization of the models. The rupture area is one of the measurable parameters of earthquakes. Here we explore how it can be used to at least synchronize fault...... models between themselves and forecast synthetic earthquakes. Our purpose here is to forecast synthetic earthquakes in a simple but stochastic (random) fault model. By imposing the rupture area of the synthetic earthquakes of this model on other models, the latter become partially synchronized...

  5. Physical and numerical modelling of natural convection in a fluid layer of small aspect ratio, in the frame of severe accidents of nuclear pressurized water reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Villermaux, Clotilde

    1999-01-01

    In the framework of PWR reactor accidents studies, the possibility of cooling the corium by the vessel flooding, is analysed. A particular attention is given to the liquid materials of the upper part of this pool. The confinement and the physical properties of this melt pool, may threat the vessel integrity by a heat flux concentration on the vessel lateral wall. A bibliographic study on the thermal transfers in natural convection, enhances the influence of the thermal extreme conditions and the layer geometry on the flow structure and the heat distribution. The lower part of the corium is constituted of an oxides layer. A stability study shows its perenniality: the metallic layer can be slipped of the oxides pool. The results analysis of the experimental program, BALI-metal, is completed by a direct numerical simulation with the TRIOU code. A model of the flow structure allows the find in bulk the experimental results. Finally a numerical simulation of the experimental tests is realized with the thermo-hydraulic code TOLBIAC. (A.L.B.)

  6. Simulated earthquake ground motions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vanmarcke, E.H.; Gasparini, D.A.

    1977-01-01

    The paper reviews current methods for generating synthetic earthquake ground motions. Emphasis is on the special requirements demanded of procedures to generate motions for use in nuclear power plant seismic response analysis. Specifically, very close agreement is usually sought between the response spectra of the simulated motions and prescribed, smooth design response spectra. The features and capabilities of the computer program SIMQKE, which has been widely used in power plant seismic work are described. Problems and pitfalls associated with the use of synthetic ground motions in seismic safety assessment are also pointed out. The limitations and paucity of recorded accelerograms together with the widespread use of time-history dynamic analysis for obtaining structural and secondary systems' response have motivated the development of earthquake simulation capabilities. A common model for synthesizing earthquakes is that of superposing sinusoidal components with random phase angles. The input parameters for such a model are, then, the amplitudes and phase angles of the contributing sinusoids as well as the characteristics of the variation of motion intensity with time, especially the duration of the motion. The amplitudes are determined from estimates of the Fourier spectrum or the spectral density function of the ground motion. These amplitudes may be assumed to be varying in time or constant for the duration of the earthquake. In the nuclear industry, the common procedure is to specify a set of smooth response spectra for use in aseismic design. This development and the need for time histories have generated much practical interest in synthesizing earthquakes whose response spectra 'match', or are compatible with a set of specified smooth response spectra

  7. Aseismic blocks and destructive earthquakes in the Aegean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stiros, Stathis

    2017-04-01

    Aseismic areas are not identified only in vast, geologically stable regions, but also within regions of active, intense, distributed deformation such as the Aegean. In the latter, "aseismic blocks" about 200m wide were recognized in the 1990's on the basis of the absence of instrumentally-derived earthquake foci, in contrast to surrounding areas. This pattern was supported by the available historical seismicity data, as well as by geologic evidence. Interestingly, GPS evidence indicates that such blocks are among the areas characterized by small deformation rates relatively to surrounding areas of higher deformation. Still, the largest and most destructive earthquake of the 1990's, the 1995 M6.6 earthquake occurred at the center of one of these "aseismic" zones at the northern part of Greece, found unprotected against seismic hazard. This case was indeed a repeat of the case of the tsunami-associated 1956 Amorgos Island M7.4 earthquake, the largest 20th century event in the Aegean back-arc region: the 1956 earthquake occurred at the center of a geologically distinct region (Cyclades Massif in Central Aegean), till then assumed aseismic. Interestingly, after 1956, the overall idea of aseismic regions remained valid, though a "promontory" of earthquake prone-areas intruding into the aseismic central Aegean was assumed. Exploitation of the archaeological excavation evidence and careful, combined analysis of historical and archaeological data and other palaeoseismic, mostly coastal data, indicated that destructive and major earthquakes have left their traces in previously assumed aseismic blocks. In the latter earthquakes typically occur with relatively low recurrence intervals, >200-300 years, much smaller than in adjacent active areas. Interestingly, areas assumed a-seismic in antiquity are among the most active in the last centuries, while areas hit by major earthquakes in the past are usually classified as areas of low seismic risk in official maps. Some reasons

  8. The HayWired Earthquake Scenario—Earthquake Hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Detweiler, Shane T.; Wein, Anne M.

    2017-04-24

    The HayWired scenario is a hypothetical earthquake sequence that is being used to better understand hazards for the San Francisco Bay region during and after an earthquake of magnitude 7 on the Hayward Fault. The 2014 Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities calculated that there is a 33-percent likelihood of a large (magnitude 6.7 or greater) earthquake occurring on the Hayward Fault within three decades. A large Hayward Fault earthquake will produce strong ground shaking, permanent displacement of the Earth’s surface, landslides, liquefaction (soils becoming liquid-like during shaking), and subsequent fault slip, known as afterslip, and earthquakes, known as aftershocks. The most recent large earthquake on the Hayward Fault occurred on October 21, 1868, and it ruptured the southern part of the fault. The 1868 magnitude-6.8 earthquake occurred when the San Francisco Bay region had far fewer people, buildings, and infrastructure (roads, communication lines, and utilities) than it does today, yet the strong ground shaking from the earthquake still caused significant building damage and loss of life. The next large Hayward Fault earthquake is anticipated to affect thousands of structures and disrupt the lives of millions of people. Earthquake risk in the San Francisco Bay region has been greatly reduced as a result of previous concerted efforts; for example, tens of billions of dollars of investment in strengthening infrastructure was motivated in large part by the 1989 magnitude 6.9 Loma Prieta earthquake. To build on efforts to reduce earthquake risk in the San Francisco Bay region, the HayWired earthquake scenario comprehensively examines the earthquake hazards to help provide the crucial scientific information that the San Francisco Bay region can use to prepare for the next large earthquake, The HayWired Earthquake Scenario—Earthquake Hazards volume describes the strong ground shaking modeled in the scenario and the hazardous movements of

  9. Ecogrid EU - a large scale smart grids demonstration of real time market-based integration of numerous small DER and DR

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ding, Yi; Nyeng, Preben; Ostergaard, Jacob

    2012-01-01

    that modern information and communication technology (ICT) and innovative market solutions can enable the operation of a distribution power system with more than 50% renewable energy sources (RES). This will be a major contribution to the European 20-20-20 goals. Furthermore, the proposed Ecogrid EU market......This paper provides an overview of the Ecogrid EU project, which is a large-scale demonstration project on the Danish island Bornholm. It provides Europe a fast track evolution towards smart grid dissemination and deployment in the distribution network. Objective of Ecogrid EU is to illustrate...... will offer the transmission system operator (TSO) additional balancing resources and ancillary services by facilitating the participation of small-scale distributed energy resources (DERs) and small end-consumers into the existing electricity markets. The majority of the 2000 participating residential...

  10. Listening to the 2011 magnitude 9.0 Tohoku-Oki, Japan, earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peng, Zhigang; Aiken, Chastity; Kilb, Debi; Shelly, David R.; Enescu, Bogdan

    2012-01-01

    The magnitude 9.0 Tohoku-Oki, Japan, earthquake on 11 March 2011 is the largest earthquake to date in Japan’s modern history and is ranked as the fourth largest earthquake in the world since 1900. This earthquake occurred within the northeast Japan subduction zone (Figure 1), where the Pacific plate is subducting beneath the Okhotsk plate at rate of ∼8–9 cm/yr (DeMets et al. 2010). This type of extremely large earthquake within a subduction zone is generally termed a “megathrust” earthquake. Strong shaking from this magnitude 9 earthquake engulfed the entire Japanese Islands, reaching a maximum acceleration ∼3 times that of gravity (3 g). Two days prior to the main event, a foreshock sequence occurred, including one earthquake of magnitude 7.2. Following the main event, numerous aftershocks occurred around the main slip region; the largest of these was magnitude 7.9. The entire foreshocks-mainshock-aftershocks sequence was well recorded by thousands of sensitive seismometers and geodetic instruments across Japan, resulting in the best-recorded megathrust earthquake in history. This devastating earthquake resulted in significant damage and high death tolls caused primarily by the associated large tsunami. This tsunami reached heights of more than 30 m, and inundation propagated inland more than 5 km from the Pacific coast, which also caused a nuclear crisis that is still affecting people’s lives in certain regions of Japan.

  11. Numerical experiments to investigate the accuracy of broad-band moment magnitude, Mwp

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hara, Tatsuhiko; Nishimura, Naoki

    2011-12-01

    We perform numerical experiments to investigate the accuracy of broad-band moment magnitude, Mwp. We conduct these experiments by measuring Mwp from synthetic seismograms and comparing the resulting values to the moment magnitudes used in the calculation of synthetic seismograms. In the numerical experiments using point sources, we have found that there is a significant dependence of Mwp on focal mechanisms, and that depths phases have a large impact on Mwp estimates, especially for large shallow earthquakes. Numerical experiments using line sources suggest that the effects of source finiteness and rupture propagation on Mwp estimates are on the order of 0.2 magnitude units for vertical fault planes with pure dip-slip mechanisms and 45° dipping fault planes with pure dip-slip (thrust) mechanisms, but that the dependence is small for strike-slip events on a vertical fault plane. Numerical experiments for huge thrust faulting earthquakes on a fault plane with a shallow dip angle suggest that the Mwp estimates do not saturate in the moment magnitude range between 8 and 9, although they are underestimates. Our results are consistent with previous studies that compared Mwp estimates to moment magnitudes calculated from seismic moment tensors obtained by analyses of observed data.

  12. Natural Time and Nowcasting Earthquakes: Are Large Global Earthquakes Temporally Clustered?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luginbuhl, Molly; Rundle, John B.; Turcotte, Donald L.

    2018-02-01

    The objective of this paper is to analyze the temporal clustering of large global earthquakes with respect to natural time, or interevent count, as opposed to regular clock time. To do this, we use two techniques: (1) nowcasting, a new method of statistically classifying seismicity and seismic risk, and (2) time series analysis of interevent counts. We chose the sequences of M_{λ } ≥ 7.0 and M_{λ } ≥ 8.0 earthquakes from the global centroid moment tensor (CMT) catalog from 2004 to 2016 for analysis. A significant number of these earthquakes will be aftershocks of the largest events, but no satisfactory method of declustering the aftershocks in clock time is available. A major advantage of using natural time is that it eliminates the need for declustering aftershocks. The event count we utilize is the number of small earthquakes that occur between large earthquakes. The small earthquake magnitude is chosen to be as small as possible, such that the catalog is still complete based on the Gutenberg-Richter statistics. For the CMT catalog, starting in 2004, we found the completeness magnitude to be M_{σ } ≥ 5.1. For the nowcasting method, the cumulative probability distribution of these interevent counts is obtained. We quantify the distribution using the exponent, β, of the best fitting Weibull distribution; β = 1 for a random (exponential) distribution. We considered 197 earthquakes with M_{λ } ≥ 7.0 and found β = 0.83 ± 0.08. We considered 15 earthquakes with M_{λ } ≥ 8.0, but this number was considered too small to generate a meaningful distribution. For comparison, we generated synthetic catalogs of earthquakes that occur randomly with the Gutenberg-Richter frequency-magnitude statistics. We considered a synthetic catalog of 1.97 × 10^5 M_{λ } ≥ 7.0 earthquakes and found β = 0.99 ± 0.01. The random catalog converted to natural time was also random. We then generated 1.5 × 10^4 synthetic catalogs with 197 M_{λ } ≥ 7.0 in each catalog and

  13. A seismic analysis of nuclear power plant components subjected to multi-excitations of earthquakes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ichiki, T.; Matsumoto, T.; Gunyasu, K.

    1977-01-01

    In this analysis, the modal analysis methods are used to determine the seismic responses of structural systems instead of the direct integration method. These results have been compared with some kinds of other analytical methods, and investigated the accuracy of numerical results of these analysis, applying to such components as Reactor Pressure Vessel and Reactor Internals of an actual plant. The results of this method of analysis are summarized as follows: (1) one of the seismic analysis methods concerning systems subjected to multi-excitations of earthquakes has been presented to the conference of JSME. Although the analytical theory presented to that conference is correct, it has a serious problem about the accuracy of numerical results. This computer program and theory cannot be used practically due to the time necessary to calculate. However, the method described in this paper overcomes those serious problems stated above and has no problem about the computer time and precision. So, it is possible to apply this method to the seismic design of an actual nuclear power plant practically. (2) The feed back effects of the seismic responses of Reactor Internals to Reactor Building are considered so small that we can separate the model of Reactor Internals from Reactor Building. (3) The results of seismic response of Reactor Internals are fairly consistent with those obtained from the model coupled with Reactor Building. (4) This analysis method can be extended to the model of Reactor Internals subjected to more than two random excitations of earthquakes. (5) It is possible that this analysis method is also applied to the seismic analysis of such three-dimensional systems as piping systems subjected to multi-excitations of earthquakes

  14. Finite-Source Inversion for the 2004 Parkfield Earthquake using 3D Velocity Model Green's Functions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, A.; Dreger, D.; Larsen, S.

    2008-12-01

    We determine finite fault models of the 2004 Parkfield earthquake using 3D Green's functions. Because of the dense station coverage and detailed 3D velocity structure model in this region, this earthquake provides an excellent opportunity to examine how the 3D velocity structure affects the finite fault inverse solutions. Various studies (e.g. Michaels and Eberhart-Phillips, 1991; Thurber et al., 2006) indicate that there is a pronounced velocity contrast across the San Andreas Fault along the Parkfield segment. Also the fault zone at Parkfield is wide as evidenced by mapped surface faults and where surface slip and creep occurred in the 1966 and the 2004 Parkfield earthquakes. For high resolution images of the rupture process"Ait is necessary to include the accurate 3D velocity structure for the finite source inversion. Liu and Aurchuleta (2004) performed finite fault inversions using both 1D and 3D Green's functions for 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake using the same source paramerization and data but different Green's functions and found that the models were quite different. This indicates that the choice of the velocity model significantly affects the waveform modeling at near-fault stations. In this study, we used the P-wave velocity model developed by Thurber et al (2006) to construct the 3D Green's functions. P-wave speeds are converted to S-wave speeds and density using by the empirical relationships of Brocher (2005). Using a finite difference method, E3D (Larsen and Schultz, 1995), we computed the 3D Green's functions numerically by inserting body forces at each station. Using reciprocity, these Green's functions are recombined to represent the ground motion at each station due to the slip on the fault plane. First we modeled the waveforms of small earthquakes to validate the 3D velocity model and the reciprocity of the Green"fs function. In the numerical tests we found that the 3D velocity model predicted the individual phases well at frequencies lower than 0

  15. Post-earthquake fire resistance of steel buildings

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jelinek, T.; Zania, V.; Giuliani, Luisa

    2017-01-01

    -resistant steel frame to post-earthquake fires (PEFs) is investigated and compared with the response of the undamaged frame exposed to fire only, by means of numerical analyses performed using a commercial finite element software. The frame considered as a case study is not insulated against fire...

  16. Fracture analysis of concrete gravity dam under earthquake induced ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Michael Horsfall

    Fracture analysis of concrete gravity dam under earthquake induced loads. 1. ABBAS MANSOURI;. 2 ... 1 Civil Engineering, Islamic Azad University (South Branch of Tehran)Tehran, Iran ..... parameter has on the results of numerical calculations. In this analysis ... with the help of Abaqus software (Abaqus theory manual ...

  17. Earthquake Complex Network Analysis Before and After the Mw 8.2 Earthquake in Iquique, Chile

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pasten, D.

    2017-12-01

    The earthquake complex networks have shown that they are abble to find specific features in seismic data set. In space, this networkshave shown a scale-free behavior for the probability distribution of connectivity, in directed networks and theyhave shown a small-world behavior, for the undirected networks.In this work, we present an earthquake complex network analysis for the large earthquake Mw 8.2 in the north ofChile (near to Iquique) in April, 2014. An earthquake complex network is made dividing the three dimensional space intocubic cells, if one of this cells contain an hypocenter, we name this cell like a node. The connections between nodes aregenerated in time. We follow the time sequence of seismic events and we are making the connections betweennodes. Now, we have two different networks: a directed and an undirected network. Thedirected network takes in consideration the time-direction of the connections, that is very important for the connectivityof the network: we are considering the connectivity, ki of the i-th node, like the number of connections going out ofthe node i plus the self-connections (if two seismic events occurred successive in time in the same cubic cell, we havea self-connection). The undirected network is made removing the direction of the connections and the self-connectionsfrom the directed network. For undirected networks, we are considering only if two nodes are or not connected.We have built a directed complex network and an undirected complex network, before and after the large earthquake in Iquique. We have used magnitudes greater than Mw = 1.0 and Mw = 3.0. We found that this method can recognize the influence of thissmall seismic events in the behavior of the network and we found that the size of the cell used to build the network isanother important factor to recognize the influence of the large earthquake in this complex system. This method alsoshows a difference in the values of the critical exponent γ (for the probability

  18. Temporal Variation of Tectonic Tremor Activity Associated with Nearby Earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chao, K.; Van der Lee, S.; Hsu, Y. J.; Pu, H. C.

    2017-12-01

    Tectonic tremor and slow slip events, located downdip from the seismogenic zone, hold the key to recurring patterns of typical earthquakes. Several findings of slow aseismic slip during the prenucletion processes of nearby earthquakes have provided new insight into the study of stress transform of slow earthquakes in fault zones prior to megathrust earthquakes. However, how tectonic tremor is associated with the occurrence of nearby earthquakes remains unclear. To enhance our understanding of the stress interaction between tremor and earthquakes, we developed an algorithm for the automatic detection and location of tectonic tremor in the collisional tectonic environment in Taiwan. Our analysis of a three-year data set indicates a short-term increase in the tremor rate starting at 19 days before the 2010 ML6.4 Jiashian main shock (Chao et al., JGR, 2017). Around the time when the tremor rate began to rise, one GPS station recorded a flip in its direction of motion. We hypothesize that tremor is driven by a slow-slip event that preceded the occurrence of the shallower nearby main shock, even though the inferred slip is too small to be observed by all GPS stations. To better quantify what the necessary condition for tremor to response to nearby earthquakes is, we obtained a 13-year ambient tremor catalog from 2004 to 2016 in the same region. We examine the spatiotemporal relationship between tremor and 37 ML>=5.0 (seven events with ML>=6.0) nearby earthquakes located within 0.5 degrees to the active tremor sources. The findings from this study can enhance our understanding of the interaction among tremor, slow slip, and nearby earthquakes in the high seismic hazard regions.

  19. The Manchester earthquake swarm of October 2002

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baptie, B.; Ottemoeller, L.

    2003-04-01

    An earthquake sequence started in the Greater Manchester area of the United Kingdom on October 19, 2002. This has continued to the time of writing and has consisted of more than 100 discrete earthquakes. Three temporary seismograph stations were installed to supplement existing permanent stations and to better understand the relationship between the seismicity and local geology. Due to the urban location, these were experienced by a large number of people. The largest event on October 21 had a magnitude ML 3.9. The activity appears to be an earthquake swarm, since there is no clear distinction between a main shock and aftershocks. However, most of the energy during the sequence was actually released in two earthquakes separated by a few seconds in time, on October 21 at 11:42. Other examples of swarm activity in the UK include Comrie (1788-1801, 1839-46), Glenalmond (1970-72), Doune (1997) and Blackford (1997-98, 2000-01) in central Scotland, Constantine (1981, 1986, 1992-4) in Cornwall, and Johnstonbridge (mid1980s) and Dumfries (1991,1999). The clustering of these events in time and space does suggest that there is a causal relationship between the events of the sequence. Joint hypocenter determination was used to simultaneously locate the swarm earthquakes, determine station corrections and improve the relative locations. It seems likely that all events in the sequence originate from a relatively small source volume. This is supported by the similarities in source mechanism and waveform signals between the various events. Focal depths were found to be very shallow and of the order of about 2-3 km. Source mechanisms determined for the largest of the events show strike-slip solutions along either northeast-southwest or northwest-southeast striking fault planes. The surface expression of faults in the epicentral area is generally northwest-southeast, suggesting that this is the more likely fault plane.

  20. What is the earthquake fracture energy?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Toro, G.; Nielsen, S. B.; Passelegue, F. X.; Spagnuolo, E.; Bistacchi, A.; Fondriest, M.; Murphy, S.; Aretusini, S.; Demurtas, M.

    2016-12-01

    The energy budget of an earthquake is one of the main open questions in earthquake physics. During seismic rupture propagation, the elastic strain energy stored in the rock volume that bounds the fault is converted into (1) gravitational work (relative movement of the wall rocks bounding the fault), (2) in- and off-fault damage of the fault zone rocks (due to rupture propagation and frictional sliding), (3) frictional heating and, of course, (4) seismic radiated energy. The difficulty in the budget determination arises from the measurement of some parameters (e.g., the temperature increase in the slipping zone which constraints the frictional heat), from the not well constrained size of the energy sinks (e.g., how large is the rock volume involved in off-fault damage?) and from the continuous exchange of energy from different sinks (for instance, fragmentation and grain size reduction may result from both the passage of the rupture front and frictional heating). Field geology studies, microstructural investigations, experiments and modelling may yield some hints. Here we discuss (1) the discrepancies arising from the comparison of the fracture energy measured in experiments reproducing seismic slip with the one estimated from seismic inversion for natural earthquakes and (2) the off-fault damage induced by the diffusion of frictional heat during simulated seismic slip in the laboratory. Our analysis suggests, for instance, that the so called earthquake fracture energy (1) is mainly frictional heat for small slips and (2), with increasing slip, is controlled by the geometrical complexity and other plastic processes occurring in the damage zone. As a consequence, because faults are rapidly and efficiently lubricated upon fast slip initiation, the dominant dissipation mechanism in large earthquakes may not be friction but be the off-fault damage due to fault segmentation and stress concentrations in a growing region around the fracture tip.

  1. Guidelines for nuclear plant response to an earthquake

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1989-12-01

    Guidelines have been developed to assist nuclear plant personnel in the preparation of earthquake response procedures for nuclear power plants. The objectives of the earthquake response procedures are to determine (1) the immediate effects of an earthquake on the physical condition of the nuclear power plant, (2) if shutdown of the plant is appropriate based on the observed damage to the plant or because the OBE has been exceeded, and (3) the readiness of the plant to resume operation following shutdown due to an earthquake. Readiness of a nuclear power plant to restart is determined on the basis of visual inspections of nuclear plant equipment and structures, and the successful completion of surveillance tests which demonstrate that the limiting conditions for operation as defined in the plant Technical Specifications are met. The guidelines are based on information obtained from a review of earthquake response procedures from numerous US and foreign nuclear power plants, interviews with nuclear plant operations personnel, and a review of reports of damage to industrial equipment and structures in actual earthquakes. 7 refs., 4 figs., 4 tabs

  2. Historical earthquake research in Austria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hammerl, Christa

    2017-12-01

    Austria has a moderate seismicity, and on average the population feels 40 earthquakes per year or approximately three earthquakes per month. A severe earthquake with light building damage is expected roughly every 2 to 3 years in Austria. Severe damage to buildings ( I 0 > 8° EMS) occurs significantly less frequently, the average period of recurrence is about 75 years. For this reason the historical earthquake research has been of special importance in Austria. The interest in historical earthquakes in the past in the Austro-Hungarian Empire is outlined, beginning with an initiative of the Austrian Academy of Sciences and the development of historical earthquake research as an independent research field after the 1978 "Zwentendorf plebiscite" on whether the nuclear power plant will start up. The applied methods are introduced briefly along with the most important studies and last but not least as an example of a recently carried out case study, one of the strongest past earthquakes in Austria, the earthquake of 17 July 1670, is presented. The research into historical earthquakes in Austria concentrates on seismic events of the pre-instrumental period. The investigations are not only of historical interest, but also contribute to the completeness and correctness of the Austrian earthquake catalogue, which is the basis for seismic hazard analysis and as such benefits the public, communities, civil engineers, architects, civil protection, and many others.

  3. Earthquake hazard evaluation for Switzerland

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ruettener, E.

    1995-01-01

    Earthquake hazard analysis is of considerable importance for Switzerland, a country with moderate seismic activity but high economic values at risk. The evaluation of earthquake hazard, i.e. the determination of return periods versus ground motion parameters, requires a description of earthquake occurrences in space and time. In this study the seismic hazard for major cities in Switzerland is determined. The seismic hazard analysis is based on historic earthquake records as well as instrumental data. The historic earthquake data show considerable uncertainties concerning epicenter location and epicentral intensity. A specific concept is required, therefore, which permits the description of the uncertainties of each individual earthquake. This is achieved by probability distributions for earthquake size and location. Historical considerations, which indicate changes in public earthquake awareness at various times (mainly due to large historical earthquakes), as well as statistical tests have been used to identify time periods of complete earthquake reporting as a function of intensity. As a result, the catalog is judged to be complete since 1878 for all earthquakes with epicentral intensities greater than IV, since 1750 for intensities greater than VI, since 1600 for intensities greater than VIII, and since 1300 for intensities greater than IX. Instrumental data provide accurate information about the depth distribution of earthquakes in Switzerland. In the Alps, focal depths are restricted to the uppermost 15 km of the crust, whereas below the northern Alpine foreland earthquakes are distributed throughout the entire crust (30 km). This depth distribution is considered in the final hazard analysis by probability distributions. (author) figs., tabs., refs

  4. Earthquake likelihood model testing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schorlemmer, D.; Gerstenberger, M.C.; Wiemer, S.; Jackson, D.D.; Rhoades, D.A.

    2007-01-01

    INTRODUCTIONThe Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models (RELM) project aims to produce and evaluate alternate models of earthquake potential (probability per unit volume, magnitude, and time) for California. Based on differing assumptions, these models are produced to test the validity of their assumptions and to explore which models should be incorporated in seismic hazard and risk evaluation. Tests based on physical and geological criteria are useful but we focus on statistical methods using future earthquake catalog data only. We envision two evaluations: a test of consistency with observed data and a comparison of all pairs of models for relative consistency. Both tests are based on the likelihood method, and both are fully prospective (i.e., the models are not adjusted to fit the test data). To be tested, each model must assign a probability to any possible event within a specified region of space, time, and magnitude. For our tests the models must use a common format: earthquake rates in specified “bins” with location, magnitude, time, and focal mechanism limits.Seismology cannot yet deterministically predict individual earthquakes; however, it should seek the best possible models for forecasting earthquake occurrence. This paper describes the statistical rules of an experiment to examine and test earthquake forecasts. The primary purposes of the tests described below are to evaluate physical models for earthquakes, assure that source models used in seismic hazard and risk studies are consistent with earthquake data, and provide quantitative measures by which models can be assigned weights in a consensus model or be judged as suitable for particular regions.In this paper we develop a statistical method for testing earthquake likelihood models. A companion paper (Schorlemmer and Gerstenberger 2007, this issue) discusses the actual implementation of these tests in the framework of the RELM initiative.Statistical testing of hypotheses is a common task and a

  5. Haiti and the Earthquake: Examining the Experience of Psychological Stress and Trauma

    Science.gov (United States)

    Risler, Ed; Kintzle, Sara; Nackerud, Larry

    2015-01-01

    For approximately 35 seconds on January 10, 2010, an earthquake measuring 7.0 on the Richter scale struck the small Caribbean nation of Haiti. This research used a preexperimental one-shot posttest to examine the incidence of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and associated trauma symptomatology from the earthquake experienced by a sample of…

  6. Geophysical Anomalies and Earthquake Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jackson, D. D.

    2008-12-01

    Finding anomalies is easy. Predicting earthquakes convincingly from such anomalies is far from easy. Why? Why have so many beautiful geophysical abnormalities not led to successful prediction strategies? What is earthquake prediction? By my definition it is convincing information that an earthquake of specified size is temporarily much more likely than usual in a specific region for a specified time interval. We know a lot about normal earthquake behavior, including locations where earthquake rates are higher than elsewhere, with estimable rates and size distributions. We know that earthquakes have power law size distributions over large areas, that they cluster in time and space, and that aftershocks follow with power-law dependence on time. These relationships justify prudent protective measures and scientific investigation. Earthquake prediction would justify exceptional temporary measures well beyond those normal prudent actions. Convincing earthquake prediction would result from methods that have demonstrated many successes with few false alarms. Predicting earthquakes convincingly is difficult for several profound reasons. First, earthquakes start in tiny volumes at inaccessible depth. The power law size dependence means that tiny unobservable ones are frequent almost everywhere and occasionally grow to larger size. Thus prediction of important earthquakes is not about nucleation, but about identifying the conditions for growth. Second, earthquakes are complex. They derive their energy from stress, which is perniciously hard to estimate or model because it is nearly singular at the margins of cracks and faults. Physical properties vary from place to place, so the preparatory processes certainly vary as well. Thus establishing the needed track record for validation is very difficult, especially for large events with immense interval times in any one location. Third, the anomalies are generally complex as well. Electromagnetic anomalies in particular require

  7. Hindi Numerals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bright, William

    In most languages encountered by linguists, the numerals, considered as a paradigmatic set, constitute a morpho-syntactic problem of only moderate complexity. The Indo-Aryan language family of North India, however, presents a curious contrast. The relatively regular numeral system of Sanskrit, as it has developed historically into the modern…

  8. Large earthquake rates from geologic, geodetic, and seismological perspectives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jackson, D. D.

    2017-12-01

    Earthquake rate and recurrence information comes primarily from geology, geodesy, and seismology. Geology gives the longest temporal perspective, but it reveals only surface deformation, relatable to earthquakes only with many assumptions. Geodesy is also limited to surface observations, but it detects evidence of the processes leading to earthquakes, again subject to important assumptions. Seismology reveals actual earthquakes, but its history is too short to capture important properties of very large ones. Unfortunately, the ranges of these observation types barely overlap, so that integrating them into a consistent picture adequate to infer future prospects requires a great deal of trust. Perhaps the most important boundary is the temporal one at the beginning of the instrumental seismic era, about a century ago. We have virtually no seismological or geodetic information on large earthquakes before then, and little geological information after. Virtually all-modern forecasts of large earthquakes assume some form of equivalence between tectonic- and seismic moment rates as functions of location, time, and magnitude threshold. That assumption links geology, geodesy, and seismology, but it invokes a host of other assumptions and incurs very significant uncertainties. Questions include temporal behavior of seismic and tectonic moment rates; shape of the earthquake magnitude distribution; upper magnitude limit; scaling between rupture length, width, and displacement; depth dependence of stress coupling; value of crustal rigidity; and relation between faults at depth and their surface fault traces, to name just a few. In this report I'll estimate the quantitative implications for estimating large earthquake rate. Global studies like the GEAR1 project suggest that surface deformation from geology and geodesy best show the geography of very large, rare earthquakes in the long term, while seismological observations of small earthquakes best forecasts moderate earthquakes

  9. Fault lubrication during earthquakes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Toro, G; Han, R; Hirose, T; De Paola, N; Nielsen, S; Mizoguchi, K; Ferri, F; Cocco, M; Shimamoto, T

    2011-03-24

    The determination of rock friction at seismic slip rates (about 1 m s(-1)) is of paramount importance in earthquake mechanics, as fault friction controls the stress drop, the mechanical work and the frictional heat generated during slip. Given the difficulty in determining friction by seismological methods, elucidating constraints are derived from experimental studies. Here we review a large set of published and unpublished experiments (∼300) performed in rotary shear apparatus at slip rates of 0.1-2.6 m s(-1). The experiments indicate a significant decrease in friction (of up to one order of magnitude), which we term fault lubrication, both for cohesive (silicate-built, quartz-built and carbonate-built) rocks and non-cohesive rocks (clay-rich, anhydrite, gypsum and dolomite gouges) typical of crustal seismogenic sources. The available mechanical work and the associated temperature rise in the slipping zone trigger a number of physicochemical processes (gelification, decarbonation and dehydration reactions, melting and so on) whose products are responsible for fault lubrication. The similarity between (1) experimental and natural fault products and (2) mechanical work measures resulting from these laboratory experiments and seismological estimates suggests that it is reasonable to extrapolate experimental data to conditions typical of earthquake nucleation depths (7-15 km). It seems that faults are lubricated during earthquakes, irrespective of the fault rock composition and of the specific weakening mechanism involved.

  10. Numerical analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Rao, G Shanker

    2006-01-01

    About the Book: This book provides an introduction to Numerical Analysis for the students of Mathematics and Engineering. The book is designed in accordance with the common core syllabus of Numerical Analysis of Universities of Andhra Pradesh and also the syllabus prescribed in most of the Indian Universities. Salient features: Approximate and Numerical Solutions of Algebraic and Transcendental Equation Interpolation of Functions Numerical Differentiation and Integration and Numerical Solution of Ordinary Differential Equations The last three chapters deal with Curve Fitting, Eigen Values and Eigen Vectors of a Matrix and Regression Analysis. Each chapter is supplemented with a number of worked-out examples as well as number of problems to be solved by the students. This would help in the better understanding of the subject. Contents: Errors Solution of Algebraic and Transcendental Equations Finite Differences Interpolation with Equal Intervals Interpolation with Unequal Int...

  11. Do Earthquakes Shake Stock Markets?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferreira, Susana; Karali, Berna

    2015-01-01

    This paper examines how major earthquakes affected the returns and volatility of aggregate stock market indices in thirty-five financial markets over the last twenty years. Results show that global financial markets are resilient to shocks caused by earthquakes even if these are domestic. Our analysis reveals that, in a few instances, some macroeconomic variables and earthquake characteristics (gross domestic product per capita, trade openness, bilateral trade flows, earthquake magnitude, a tsunami indicator, distance to the epicenter, and number of fatalities) mediate the impact of earthquakes on stock market returns, resulting in a zero net effect. However, the influence of these variables is market-specific, indicating no systematic pattern across global capital markets. Results also demonstrate that stock market volatility is unaffected by earthquakes, except for Japan.

  12. Earthquake engineering for nuclear facilities

    CERN Document Server

    Kuno, Michiya

    2017-01-01

    This book is a comprehensive compilation of earthquake- and tsunami-related technologies and knowledge for the design and construction of nuclear facilities. As such, it covers a wide range of fields including civil engineering, architecture, geotechnical engineering, mechanical engineering, and nuclear engineering, for the development of new technologies providing greater resistance against earthquakes and tsunamis. It is crucial both for students of nuclear energy courses and for young engineers in nuclear power generation industries to understand the basics and principles of earthquake- and tsunami-resistant design of nuclear facilities. In Part I, "Seismic Design of Nuclear Power Plants", the design of nuclear power plants to withstand earthquakes and tsunamis is explained, focusing on buildings, equipment's, and civil engineering structures. In Part II, "Basics of Earthquake Engineering", fundamental knowledge of earthquakes and tsunamis as well as the dynamic response of structures and foundation ground...

  13. Performance of HEPA filters at LLNL following the 1980 and 1989 earthquakes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bergman, W.; Elliott, J.; Wilson, K.

    1995-01-01

    The Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory has experienced two significant earthquakes for which data is available to assess the ability of HEPA filters to withstand seismic conditions. A 5.9 magnitude earthquake with an epicenter 10 miles from LLNL struck on January 24, l980. Estimates of the peak ground accelerations ranged from 0.2 to 0.3 g. A 7.0 magnitude earthquake with an epicenter about 50 miles from LLNL struck on October 17, 1989. Measurements of the ground accelerations at LLNL averaged 0.1 g. The results from the in-place filter tests obtained after each of the earthquakes were compiled and studied to determine if the earthquakes had caused filter leakage. Our study showed that only the 1980 earthquake resulted in a small increase in the number of HEPA filters developing leaks. In the 12 months following the 1980 and 1989 earthquakes, the in-place filter tests showed 8.0% and 4.1% of all filters respectively developed leaks. The average percentage of filters developing leaks from 1980 to 1993 was 3.3%+/-1.7%. The increase in the filter leaks is significant for the 1980 earthquake, but not for the 1989 earthquake. No contamination was detected following the earthquakes that would suggest transient releases from the filtration system

  14. Performance of HEPA filters at LLNL following the 1980 and 1989 earthquakes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bergman, W.; Elliott, J.; Wilson, K. [Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, CA (United States)

    1995-02-01

    The Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory has experienced two significant earthquakes for which data is available to assess the ability of HEPA filters to withstand seismic conditions. A 5.9 magnitude earthquake with an epicenter 10 miles from LLNL struck on January 24, l980. Estimates of the peak ground accelerations ranged from 0.2 to 0.3 g. A 7.0 magnitude earthquake with an epicenter about 50 miles from LLNL struck on October 17, 1989. Measurements of the ground accelerations at LLNL averaged 0.1 g. The results from the in-place filter tests obtained after each of the earthquakes were compiled and studied to determine if the earthquakes had caused filter leakage. Our study showed that only the 1980 earthquake resulted in a small increase in the number of HEPA filters developing leaks. In the 12 months following the 1980 and 1989 earthquakes, the in-place filter tests showed 8.0% and 4.1% of all filters respectively developed leaks. The average percentage of filters developing leaks from 1980 to 1993 was 3.3%+/-1.7%. The increase in the filter leaks is significant for the 1980 earthquake, but not for the 1989 earthquake. No contamination was detected following the earthquakes that would suggest transient releases from the filtration system.

  15. Earthquake resistant design of structures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Choi, Chang Geun; Kim, Gyu Seok; Lee, Dong Geun

    1990-02-01

    This book tells of occurrence of earthquake and damage analysis of earthquake, equivalent static analysis method, application of equivalent static analysis method, dynamic analysis method like time history analysis by mode superposition method and direct integration method, design spectrum analysis considering an earthquake-resistant design in Korea. Such as analysis model and vibration mode, calculation of base shear, calculation of story seismic load and combine of analysis results.

  16. The severity of an earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    ,

    1997-01-01

    The severity of an earthquake can be expressed in terms of both intensity and magnitude. However, the two terms are quite different, and they are often confused. Intensity is based on the observed effects of ground shaking on people, buildings, and natural features. It varies from place to place within the disturbed region depending on the location of the observer with respect to the earthquake epicenter. Magnitude is related to the amount of seismic energy released at the hypocenter of the earthquake. It is based on the amplitude of the earthquake waves recorded on instruments

  17. Lower bound earthquake magnitude for probabilistic seismic hazard evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McCann, M.W. Jr.; Reed, J.W.

    1990-01-01

    This paper presents the results of a study that develops an engineering and seismological basis for selecting a lower-bound magnitude (LBM) for use in seismic hazard assessment. As part of a seismic hazard analysis the range of earthquake magnitudes that are included in the assessment of the probability of exceedance of ground motion must be defined. The upper-bound magnitude is established by earth science experts based on their interpretation of the maximum size of earthquakes that can be generated by a seismic source. The lower-bound or smallest earthquake that is considered in the analysis must also be specified. The LBM limits the earthquakes that are considered in assessing the probability that specified ground motion levels are exceeded. In the past there has not been a direct consideration of the appropriate LBM value that should be used in a seismic hazard assessment. This study specifically looks at the selection of a LBM for use in seismic hazard analyses that are input to the evaluation/design of nuclear power plants (NPPs). Topics addressed in the evaluation of a LBM are earthquake experience data at heavy industrial facilities, engineering characteristics of ground motions associated with small-magnitude earthquakes, probabilistic seismic risk assessments (seismic PRAs), and seismic margin evaluations. The results of this study and the recommendations concerning a LBM for use in seismic hazard assessments are discussed. (orig.)

  18. Test of Poisson Process for Earthquakes in and around Korea

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Noh, Myunghyun; Choi, Hoseon

    2015-01-01

    Since Cornell's work on the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (hereafter, PSHA), majority of PSHA computer codes are assuming that the earthquake occurrence is Poissonian. To the author's knowledge, it is uncertain who first opened the issue of the Poisson process for the earthquake occurrence. The systematic PSHA in Korea, led by the nuclear industry, were carried out for more than 25 year with the assumption of the Poisson process. However, the assumption of the Poisson process has never been tested. Therefore, the test is of significance. We tested whether the Korean earthquakes follow the Poisson process or not. The Chi-square test with the significance level of 5% was applied. The test turned out that the Poisson process could not be rejected for the earthquakes of magnitude 2.9 or larger. However, it was still observed in the graphical comparison that some portion of the observed distribution significantly deviated from the Poisson distribution. We think this is due to the small earthquake data. The earthquakes of magnitude 2.9 or larger occurred only 376 times during 34 years. Therefore, the judgment on the Poisson process derived in the present study is not conclusive

  19. Failures and suggestions in Earthquake forecasting and prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sacks, S. I.

    2013-12-01

    Seismologists have had poor success in earthquake prediction. However, wide ranging observations from earlier great earthquakes show that precursory data can exist. In particular, two aspects seem promising. In agreement with simple physical modeling, b-values decrease in highly loaded fault zones for years before failure. Potentially more usefully, in high stress regions, breakdown of dilatant patches leading to failure can yield expelled water-related observations. The volume increase (dilatancy) caused by high shear stresses decreases the pore pressure. Eventually, water flows back in restoring the pore pressure, promoting failure and expelling the extra water. Of course, in a generally stressed region there may be many small patches that fail, such as observed before the 1975 Haicheng earthquake. Only a few days before the major event will most of the dilatancy breakdown occur in the fault zone itself such as for the Tangshan, 1976 destructive event. Observations of 'water release' effects have been observed before the 1923 great Kanto earthquake, the 1984 Yamasaki event, the 1975 Haicheng and the 1976 Tangshan earthquakes and also the 1995 Kobe earthquake. While there are obvious difficulties in water release observations, not least because there is currently no observational network anywhere, historical data does suggest some promise if we broaden our approach to this difficult subject.

  20. Future Developments for the Earthquake Early Warning System following the 2011 off the Pacific Coast of Tohoku Earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamada, M.; Mori, J. J.

    2011-12-01

    The 2011 off the Pacific Coast of Tohoku Earthquake (Mw9.0) caused significant damage over a large area of northeastern Honshu. An earthquake early warning was issued to the public in the Tohoku region about 8 seconds after the first P-arrival, which is 31 seconds after the origin time. There was no 'blind zone', and warnings were received at all locations before S-wave arrivals, since the earthquake was fairly far offshore. Although the early warning message was properly reported in Tohoku region which was the most severely affected area, a message was not sent to the more distant Tokyo region because the intensity was underestimated. . This underestimation was because the magnitude determination in the first few seconds was relatively small (Mj8.1)., and there was no consideration of a finite fault with a long length. Another significant issue is that warnings were sometimes not properly provided for aftershocks. Immediately following the earthquake, the waveforms of some large aftershocks were contaminated by long-period surface waves from the mainshock, which made it difficult to pick P-wave arrivals. Also, correctly distinguishing and locating later aftershocks was sometimes difficult, when multiple events occurred within a short period of time. This masinhock begins with relatively small moment release for the first 10 s . Since the amplitude of the initial waveforms is small, most methods that use amplitudes and periods of the P-wave (e.g. Wu and Kanamori, 2005) cannot correctly determine the size of the4 earthquake in the first several seconds. The current JMA system uses the peak displacement amplitude for the magnitude estimation, and the magnitude saturated at about M8 1 minute after the first P-wave arrival. . Magnitudes of smaller earthquakes can be correctly identified from the first few seconds of P- or S-wave arrivals, but this M9 event cannot be characterized in such a short time. The only way to correctly characterize the size of the Tohoku

  1. Earthquake-induced water-level fluctuations at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, June 1992

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    O'Brien, G.M.

    1993-01-01

    This report presents earthquake-induced water-level and fluid-pressure data for wells in the Yucca Mountain area, Nevada, during June 1992. Three earthquakes occurred which caused significant water-level and fluid-pressure responses in wells. Wells USW H-5 and USW H-6 are continuously monitored to detect short-term responses caused by earthquakes. Two wells, monitored hourly, had significant, longer-term responses in water level following the earthquakes. On June 28, 1992, a 7.5-magnitude earthquake occurred near Landers, California causing an estimated maximum water-level change of 90 centimeters in well USW H-5. Three hours later a 6.6-magnitude earthquake occurred near Big Bear Lake, California; the maximum water-level fluctuation was 20 centimeters in well USW H-5. A 5.6-magnitude earthquake occurred at Little Skull Mountain, Nevada, on June 29, approximately 23 kilometers from Yucca Mountain. The maximum estimated short-term water-level fluctuation from the Little Skull Mountain earthquake was 40 centimeters in well USW H-5. The water level in well UE-25p number-sign 1, monitored hourly, decreased approximately 50 centimeters over 3 days following the Little Skull Mountain earthquake. The water level in UE-25p number-sign 1 returned to pre-earthquake levels in approximately 6 months. The water level in the lower interval of well USW H-3 increased 28 centimeters following the Little Skull Mountain earthquake. The Landers and Little Skull Mountain earthquakes caused responses in 17 intervals of 14 hourly monitored wells, however, most responses were small and of short duration. For several days following the major earthquakes, many smaller magnitude aftershocks occurred causing measurable responses in the continuously monitored wells

  2. Earthquake simulation, actual earthquake monitoring and analytical methods for soil-structure interaction investigation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tang, H T [Seismic Center, Electric Power Research Institute, Palo Alto, CA (United States)

    1988-07-01

    Approaches for conducting in-situ soil-structure interaction experiments are discussed. High explosives detonated under the ground can generate strong ground motion to induce soil-structure interaction (SSI). The explosive induced data are useful in studying the dynamic characteristics of the soil-structure system associated with the inertial aspect of the SSI problem. The plane waves generated by the explosives cannot adequately address the kinematic interaction associated with actual earthquakes because of he difference in wave fields and their effects. Earthquake monitoring is ideal for obtaining SSI data that can address all aspects of the SSI problem. The only limitation is the level of excitation that can be obtained. Neither the simulated earthquake experiments nor the earthquake monitoring experiments can have exact similitude if reduced scale test structures are used. If gravity effects are small, reasonable correlations between the scaled model and the prototype can be obtained provided that input motion can be scaled appropriately. The key product of the in-situ experiments is the data base that can be used to qualify analytical methods for prototypical applications. (author)

  3. Numerical analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Scott, L Ridgway

    2011-01-01

    Computational science is fundamentally changing how technological questions are addressed. The design of aircraft, automobiles, and even racing sailboats is now done by computational simulation. The mathematical foundation of this new approach is numerical analysis, which studies algorithms for computing expressions defined with real numbers. Emphasizing the theory behind the computation, this book provides a rigorous and self-contained introduction to numerical analysis and presents the advanced mathematics that underpin industrial software, including complete details that are missing from most textbooks. Using an inquiry-based learning approach, Numerical Analysis is written in a narrative style, provides historical background, and includes many of the proofs and technical details in exercises. Students will be able to go beyond an elementary understanding of numerical simulation and develop deep insights into the foundations of the subject. They will no longer have to accept the mathematical gaps that ex...

  4. Global variations of large megathrust earthquake rupture characteristics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kanamori, Hiroo

    2018-01-01

    Despite the surge of great earthquakes along subduction zones over the last decade and advances in observations and analysis techniques, it remains unclear whether earthquake complexity is primarily controlled by persistent fault properties or by dynamics of the failure process. We introduce the radiated energy enhancement factor (REEF), given by the ratio of an event’s directly measured radiated energy to the calculated minimum radiated energy for a source with the same seismic moment and duration, to quantify the rupture complexity. The REEF measurements for 119 large [moment magnitude (Mw) 7.0 to 9.2] megathrust earthquakes distributed globally show marked systematic regional patterns, suggesting that the rupture complexity is strongly influenced by persistent geological factors. We characterize this as the existence of smooth and rough rupture patches with varying interpatch separation, along with failure dynamics producing triggering interactions that augment the regional influences on large events. We present an improved asperity scenario incorporating both effects and categorize global subduction zones and great earthquakes based on their REEF values and slip patterns. Giant earthquakes rupturing over several hundred kilometers can occur in regions with low-REEF patches and small interpatch spacing, such as for the 1960 Chile, 1964 Alaska, and 2011 Tohoku earthquakes, or in regions with high-REEF patches and large interpatch spacing as in the case for the 2004 Sumatra and 1906 Ecuador-Colombia earthquakes. Thus, combining seismic magnitude Mw and REEF, we provide a quantitative framework to better represent the span of rupture characteristics of great earthquakes and to understand global seismicity. PMID:29750186

  5. Liquefaction evidence for the strength of ground motions resulting from Late Holocene Cascadia subduction earthquakes, with emphasis on the event of 1700 A.D.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Obermeier, S.F.; Dickenson, S.E.

    2000-01-01

    During the past decade, paleoseismic studies done by many researchers in the coastal regions of the Pacific Northwest have shown that regional downdropping and subsequent tsunami inundation occurred in response to a major earthquake along the Cascadia subduction zone. This earthquake occurred almost certainly in 1700 A.D., and is believed by many to have been of M 8.5-9 or perhaps larger. In order to characterize the severity of ground motions from this earthquake, we report on a field search and analysis of seismically induced liquefaction features. The search was conducted chiefly along the banks of islands in the lowermost Columbia River of Oregon and Washington and in stream banks along smaller rivers throughout southwestern Washington. To a lesser extent, the investigation included rivers in central Oregon. Numerous small- to moderate-sized liquefaction features from the earthquake of 1700 A.D. were found in some regions, but there was a notable lack of liquefaction features in others. The regional distribution of liquefaction features is evaluated as a function of geologic and geotechnical factors in different field settings near the coast. Our use of widely different field settings, each in which we independently assess the strength of shaking and arrive at the same conclusion, enhances the credibility of our interpretations. Our regional inventory of liquefaction features and preliminary geotechnical analysis of liquefaction potential provide substantial evidence for only moderate levels of ground shaking in coastal Washington and Oregon during the subduction earthquake of 1700 A.D. Additionally, it appears that a similar conclusion can be reached for an earlier subduction earthquake that occurred within the past 1100 years, which also has been characterized by others as being M 8 or greater. On the basis of more limited data for older events collected in our regional study, it appears that seismic shaking has been no stronger throughout Holocene time. Our

  6. Foreshocks, aftershocks, and earthquake probabilities: Accounting for the landers earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Lucile M.

    1994-01-01

    The equation to determine the probability that an earthquake occurring near a major fault will be a foreshock to a mainshock on that fault is modified to include the case of aftershocks to a previous earthquake occurring near the fault. The addition of aftershocks to the background seismicity makes its less probable that an earthquake will be a foreshock, because nonforeshocks have become more common. As the aftershocks decay with time, the probability that an earthquake will be a foreshock increases. However, fault interactions between the first mainshock and the major fault can increase the long-term probability of a characteristic earthquake on that fault, which will, in turn, increase the probability that an event is a foreshock, compensating for the decrease caused by the aftershocks.

  7. Numerical modeling and the physical basis of seismic discriminants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Denny, M.D.

    1993-01-01

    Accurate seismic event discrimination is critical to detection of nuclear explosions. Numerical modeling applied to seismic event discrimination can lead to increased reliability of proliferation detection. It is particularly applicable to error budgeting and to understanding explosion and earthquake phenomenologies. There also is a need for minimum requirements to validate the models used in numerical modeling

  8. Foreshock occurrence rates before large earthquakes worldwide

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reasenberg, P.A.

    1999-01-01

    Global rates of foreshock occurrence involving shallow M ??? 6 and M ??? 7 mainshocks and M ??? 5 foreshocks were measured, using earthquakes listed in the Harvard CMT catalog for the period 1978-1996. These rates are similar to rates ones measured in previous worldwide and regional studies when they are normalized for the ranges of magnitude difference they each span. The observed worldwide rates were compared to a generic model of earthquake clustering, which is based on patterns of small and moderate aftershocks in California, and were found to exceed the California model by a factor of approximately 2. Significant differences in foreshock rate were found among subsets of earthquakes defined by their focal mechanism and tectonic region, with the rate before thrust events higher and the rate before strike-slip events lower than the worldwide average. Among the thrust events a large majority, composed of events located in shallow subduction zones, registered a high foreshock rate, while a minority, located in continental thrust belts, measured a low rate. These differences may explain why previous surveys have revealed low foreshock rates among thrust events in California (especially southern California), while the worldwide observations suggest the opposite: California, lacking an active subduction zone in most of its territory, and including a region of mountain-building thrusts in the south, reflects the low rate apparently typical for continental thrusts, while the worldwide observations, dominated by shallow subduction zone events, are foreshock-rich.

  9. 1964 Great Alaska Earthquake: a photographic tour of Anchorage, Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thoms, Evan E.; Haeussler, Peter J.; Anderson, Rebecca D.; McGimsey, Robert G.

    2014-01-01

    , and small-scale maps, as well as links to slideshows of additional photographs and Google Street View™ scenes. Buildings in Anchorage that were severely damaged, sites of major landslides, and locations of post-earthquake engineering responses are highlighted. The web map can be used online as a virtual tour or in a physical self-guided tour using a web-enabled Global Positioning System (GPS) device. This publication serves the purpose of committing most of the content of the web map to a single distributable document. As such, some of the content differs from the online version.

  10. Twitter Seismology: Earthquake Monitoring and Response in a Social World

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bowden, D. C.; Earle, P. S.; Guy, M.; Smoczyk, G.

    2011-12-01

    detections is very small compared to the 5,175 earthquakes in the USGS PDE global earthquake catalog for the same five month time period, and no accurate location or magnitude can be assigned based on Tweet data alone. However, Twitter earthquake detections are not without merit. The detections are generally caused by widely felt events that are of more immediate interest than those with no human impact. The detections are also fast; about 80% occurred within 2 minutes of the origin time. This is considerably faster than seismographic detections in poorly instrumented regions of the world. The tweets triggering the detections also provided (very) short first-impression narratives from people who experienced the shaking. The USGS will continue investigating how to use Twitter and other forms of social media to augment is current suite of seismographically derived products.

  11. Global building inventory for earthquake loss estimation and risk management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaiswal, Kishor; Wald, David; Porter, Keith

    2010-01-01

    We develop a global database of building inventories using taxonomy of global building types for use in near-real-time post-earthquake loss estimation and pre-earthquake risk analysis, for the U.S. Geological Survey’s Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) program. The database is available for public use, subject to peer review, scrutiny, and open enhancement. On a country-by-country level, it contains estimates of the distribution of building types categorized by material, lateral force resisting system, and occupancy type (residential or nonresidential, urban or rural). The database draws on and harmonizes numerous sources: (1) UN statistics, (2) UN Habitat’s demographic and health survey (DHS) database, (3) national housing censuses, (4) the World Housing Encyclopedia and (5) other literature.

  12. Memory effect in M ≥ 7 earthquakes of Taiwan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Jeen-Hwa

    2014-07-01

    The M ≥ 7 earthquakes that occurred in the Taiwan region during 1906-2006 are taken to study the possibility of memory effect existing in the sequence of those large earthquakes. Those events are all mainshocks. The fluctuation analysis technique is applied to analyze two sequences in terms of earthquake magnitude and inter-event time represented in the natural time domain. For both magnitude and inter-event time, the calculations are made for three data sets, i.e., the original order data, the reverse-order data, and that of the mean values. Calculated results show that the exponents of scaling law of fluctuation versus window length are less than 0.5 for the sequences of both magnitude and inter-event time data. In addition, the phase portraits of two sequent magnitudes and two sequent inter-event times are also applied to explore if large (or small) earthquakes are followed by large (or small) events. Results lead to a negative answer. Together with all types of information in study, we make a conclusion that the earthquake sequence in study is short-term corrected and thus the short-term memory effect would be operative.

  13. Earthquakes Threaten Many American Schools

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bailey, Nancy E.

    2010-01-01

    Millions of U.S. children attend schools that are not safe from earthquakes, even though they are in earthquake-prone zones. Several cities and states have worked to identify and repair unsafe buildings, but many others have done little or nothing to fix the problem. The reasons for ignoring the problem include political and financial ones, but…

  14. Make an Earthquake: Ground Shaking!

    Science.gov (United States)

    Savasci, Funda

    2011-01-01

    The main purposes of this activity are to help students explore possible factors affecting the extent of the damage of earthquakes and learn the ways to reduce earthquake damages. In these inquiry-based activities, students have opportunities to develop science process skills and to build an understanding of the relationship among science,…

  15. Earthquake Catalogue of the Caucasus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Godoladze, T.; Gok, R.; Tvaradze, N.; Tumanova, N.; Gunia, I.; Onur, T.

    2016-12-01

    The Caucasus has a documented historical catalog stretching back to the beginning of the Christian era. Most of the largest historical earthquakes prior to the 19th century are assumed to have occurred on active faults of the Greater Caucasus. Important earthquakes include the Samtskhe earthquake of 1283 (Ms˜7.0, Io=9); Lechkhumi-Svaneti earthquake of 1350 (Ms˜7.0, Io=9); and the Alaverdi earthquake of 1742 (Ms˜6.8, Io=9). Two significant historical earthquakes that may have occurred within the Javakheti plateau in the Lesser Caucasus are the Tmogvi earthquake of 1088 (Ms˜6.5, Io=9) and the Akhalkalaki earthquake of 1899 (Ms˜6.3, Io =8-9). Large earthquakes that occurred in the Caucasus within the period of instrumental observation are: Gori 1920; Tabatskuri 1940; Chkhalta 1963; Racha earthquake of 1991 (Ms=7.0), is the largest event ever recorded in the region; Barisakho earthquake of 1992 (M=6.5); Spitak earthquake of 1988 (Ms=6.9, 100 km south of Tbilisi), which killed over 50,000 people in Armenia. Recently, permanent broadband stations have been deployed across the region as part of the various national networks (Georgia (˜25 stations), Azerbaijan (˜35 stations), Armenia (˜14 stations)). The data from the last 10 years of observation provides an opportunity to perform modern, fundamental scientific investigations. In order to improve seismic data quality a catalog of all instrumentally recorded earthquakes has been compiled by the IES (Institute of Earth Sciences/NSMC, Ilia State University) in the framework of regional joint project (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Turkey, USA) "Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) in the Caucasus. The catalogue consists of more then 80,000 events. First arrivals of each earthquake of Mw>=4.0 have been carefully examined. To reduce calculation errors, we corrected arrivals from the seismic records. We improved locations of the events and recalculate Moment magnitudes in order to obtain unified magnitude

  16. Testing earthquake source inversion methodologies

    KAUST Repository

    Page, Morgan T.

    2011-01-01

    Source Inversion Validation Workshop; Palm Springs, California, 11-12 September 2010; Nowadays earthquake source inversions are routinely performed after large earthquakes and represent a key connection between recorded seismic and geodetic data and the complex rupture process at depth. The resulting earthquake source models quantify the spatiotemporal evolution of ruptures. They are also used to provide a rapid assessment of the severity of an earthquake and to estimate losses. However, because of uncertainties in the data, assumed fault geometry and velocity structure, and chosen rupture parameterization, it is not clear which features of these source models are robust. Improved understanding of the uncertainty and reliability of earthquake source inversions will allow the scientific community to use the robust features of kinematic inversions to more thoroughly investigate the complexity of the rupture process and to better constrain other earthquakerelated computations, such as ground motion simulations and static stress change calculations.

  17. Regional dependence in earthquake early warning and real time seismology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Caprio, M.

    2013-01-01

    An effective earthquake prediction method is still a Chimera. What we can do at the moment, after the occurrence of a seismic event, is to provide the maximum available information as soon as possible. This can help in reducing the impact of the quake on population or and better organize the rescue operations in case of post-event actions. This study strives to improve the evaluation of earthquake parameters shortly after the occurrence of a major earthquake, and the characterization of regional dependencies in Real-Time Seismology. The recent earthquake experience from Tohoku (M 9.0, 11.03.2011) showed how an efficient EEW systems can inform numerous people and thus potentially reduce the economic and human losses by distributing warning messages several seconds before the arrival of seismic waves. In the case of devastating earthquakes, usually, in the first minutes to days after the main shock, the common communications channels can be overloaded or broken. In such cases, a precise knowledge of the macroseismic intensity distribution will represent a decisive contribution in help management and in the valuation of losses. In this work, I focused on improving the adaptability of EEW systems (chapters 1 and 2) and in deriving a global relationship for converting peak ground motion into macroseismic intensity and vice versa (chapter 3). For EEW applications, in chapter 1 we present an evolutionary approach for magnitude estimation for earthquake early warning based on real-time inversion of displacement spectra. The Spectrum Inversion (SI) method estimates magnitude and its uncertainty by inferring the shape of the entire displacement spectral curve based on the part of the spectra constrained by available data. Our method can be applied in any region without the need for calibration. SI magnitude and uncertainty estimates are updated each second following the initial P detection and potentially stabilize within 10 seconds from the initial earthquake detection

  18. Regional dependence in earthquake early warning and real time seismology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Caprio, M.

    2013-07-01

    An effective earthquake prediction method is still a Chimera. What we can do at the moment, after the occurrence of a seismic event, is to provide the maximum available information as soon as possible. This can help in reducing the impact of the quake on population or and better organize the rescue operations in case of post-event actions. This study strives to improve the evaluation of earthquake parameters shortly after the occurrence of a major earthquake, and the characterization of regional dependencies in Real-Time Seismology. The recent earthquake experience from Tohoku (M 9.0, 11.03.2011) showed how an efficient EEW systems can inform numerous people and thus potentially reduce the economic and human losses by distributing warning messages several seconds before the arrival of seismic waves. In the case of devastating earthquakes, usually, in the first minutes to days after the main shock, the common communications channels can be overloaded or broken. In such cases, a precise knowledge of the macroseismic intensity distribution will represent a decisive contribution in help management and in the valuation of losses. In this work, I focused on improving the adaptability of EEW systems (chapters 1 and 2) and in deriving a global relationship for converting peak ground motion into macroseismic intensity and vice versa (chapter 3). For EEW applications, in chapter 1 we present an evolutionary approach for magnitude estimation for earthquake early warning based on real-time inversion of displacement spectra. The Spectrum Inversion (SI) method estimates magnitude and its uncertainty by inferring the shape of the entire displacement spectral curve based on the part of the spectra constrained by available data. Our method can be applied in any region without the need for calibration. SI magnitude and uncertainty estimates are updated each second following the initial P detection and potentially stabilize within 10 seconds from the initial earthquake detection

  19. The CATDAT damaging earthquakes database

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. E. Daniell

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available The global CATDAT damaging earthquakes and secondary effects (tsunami, fire, landslides, liquefaction and fault rupture database was developed to validate, remove discrepancies, and expand greatly upon existing global databases; and to better understand the trends in vulnerability, exposure, and possible future impacts of such historic earthquakes.

    Lack of consistency and errors in other earthquake loss databases frequently cited and used in analyses was a major shortcoming in the view of the authors which needed to be improved upon.

    Over 17 000 sources of information have been utilised, primarily in the last few years, to present data from over 12 200 damaging earthquakes historically, with over 7000 earthquakes since 1900 examined and validated before insertion into the database. Each validated earthquake includes seismological information, building damage, ranges of social losses to account for varying sources (deaths, injuries, homeless, and affected, and economic losses (direct, indirect, aid, and insured.

    Globally, a slightly increasing trend in economic damage due to earthquakes is not consistent with the greatly increasing exposure. The 1923 Great Kanto ($214 billion USD damage; 2011 HNDECI-adjusted dollars compared to the 2011 Tohoku (>$300 billion USD at time of writing, 2008 Sichuan and 1995 Kobe earthquakes show the increasing concern for economic loss in urban areas as the trend should be expected to increase. Many economic and social loss values not reported in existing databases have been collected. Historical GDP (Gross Domestic Product, exchange rate, wage information, population, HDI (Human Development Index, and insurance information have been collected globally to form comparisons.

    This catalogue is the largest known cross-checked global historic damaging earthquake database and should have far-reaching consequences for earthquake loss estimation, socio-economic analysis, and the global

  20. The CATDAT damaging earthquakes database

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daniell, J. E.; Khazai, B.; Wenzel, F.; Vervaeck, A.

    2011-08-01

    The global CATDAT damaging earthquakes and secondary effects (tsunami, fire, landslides, liquefaction and fault rupture) database was developed to validate, remove discrepancies, and expand greatly upon existing global databases; and to better understand the trends in vulnerability, exposure, and possible future impacts of such historic earthquakes. Lack of consistency and errors in other earthquake loss databases frequently cited and used in analyses was a major shortcoming in the view of the authors which needed to be improved upon. Over 17 000 sources of information have been utilised, primarily in the last few years, to present data from over 12 200 damaging earthquakes historically, with over 7000 earthquakes since 1900 examined and validated before insertion into the database. Each validated earthquake includes seismological information, building damage, ranges of social losses to account for varying sources (deaths, injuries, homeless, and affected), and economic losses (direct, indirect, aid, and insured). Globally, a slightly increasing trend in economic damage due to earthquakes is not consistent with the greatly increasing exposure. The 1923 Great Kanto (214 billion USD damage; 2011 HNDECI-adjusted dollars) compared to the 2011 Tohoku (>300 billion USD at time of writing), 2008 Sichuan and 1995 Kobe earthquakes show the increasing concern for economic loss in urban areas as the trend should be expected to increase. Many economic and social loss values not reported in existing databases have been collected. Historical GDP (Gross Domestic Product), exchange rate, wage information, population, HDI (Human Development Index), and insurance information have been collected globally to form comparisons. This catalogue is the largest known cross-checked global historic damaging earthquake database and should have far-reaching consequences for earthquake loss estimation, socio-economic analysis, and the global reinsurance field.

  1. Tsunami Hazard Assessment of Coastal South Africa Based on Mega-Earthquakes of Remote Subduction Zones

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kijko, Andrzej; Smit, Ansie; Papadopoulos, Gerassimos A.; Novikova, Tatyana

    2017-11-01

    After the mega-earthquakes and concomitant devastating tsunamis in Sumatra (2004) and Japan (2011), we launched an investigation into the potential risk of tsunami hazard to the coastal cities of South Africa. This paper presents the analysis of the seismic hazard of seismogenic sources that could potentially generate tsunamis, as well as the analysis of the tsunami hazard to coastal areas of South Africa. The subduction zones of Makran, South Sandwich Island, Sumatra, and the Andaman Islands were identified as possible sources of mega-earthquakes and tsunamis that could affect the African coast. Numerical tsunami simulations were used to investigate the realistic and worst-case scenarios that could be generated by these subduction zones. The simulated tsunami amplitudes and run-up heights calculated for the coastal cities of Cape Town, Durban, and Port Elizabeth are relatively small and therefore pose no real risk to the South African coast. However, only distant tsunamigenic sources were considered and the results should therefore be viewed as preliminary.

  2. Tsunami Hazard Assessment of Coastal South Africa Based on Mega-Earthquakes of Remote Subduction Zones

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kijko, Andrzej; Smit, Ansie; Papadopoulos, Gerassimos A.; Novikova, Tatyana

    2018-04-01

    After the mega-earthquakes and concomitant devastating tsunamis in Sumatra (2004) and Japan (2011), we launched an investigation into the potential risk of tsunami hazard to the coastal cities of South Africa. This paper presents the analysis of the seismic hazard of seismogenic sources that could potentially generate tsunamis, as well as the analysis of the tsunami hazard to coastal areas of South Africa. The subduction zones of Makran, South Sandwich Island, Sumatra, and the Andaman Islands were identified as possible sources of mega-earthquakes and tsunamis that could affect the African coast. Numerical tsunami simulations were used to investigate the realistic and worst-case scenarios that could be generated by these subduction zones. The simulated tsunami amplitudes and run-up heights calculated for the coastal cities of Cape Town, Durban, and Port Elizabeth are relatively small and therefore pose no real risk to the South African coast. However, only distant tsunamigenic sources were considered and the results should therefore be viewed as preliminary.

  3. Numerical analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Brezinski, C

    2012-01-01

    Numerical analysis has witnessed many significant developments in the 20th century. This book brings together 16 papers dealing with historical developments, survey papers and papers on recent trends in selected areas of numerical analysis, such as: approximation and interpolation, solution of linear systems and eigenvalue problems, iterative methods, quadrature rules, solution of ordinary-, partial- and integral equations. The papers are reprinted from the 7-volume project of the Journal of Computational and Applied Mathematics on '/homepage/sac/cam/na2000/index.html<

  4. Modified mercalli intensities for nine earthquakes in central and western Washington between 1989 and 1999

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brocher, Thomas M.; Dewey, James W.; Cassidy, John F.

    2017-08-15

    We determine Modified Mercalli (Seismic) Intensities (MMI) for nine onshore earthquakes of magnitude 4.5 and larger that occurred in central and western Washington between 1989 and 1999, on the basis of effects reported in postal questionnaires, the press, and professional collaborators. The earthquakes studied include four earthquakes of M5 and larger: the M5.0 Deming earthquake of April 13, 1990, the M5.0 Point Robinson earthquake of January 29, 1995, the M5.4 Duvall earthquake of May 3, 1996, and the M5.8 Satsop earthquake of July 3, 1999. The MMI are assigned using data and procedures that evolved at the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and its Department of Commerce predecessors and that were used to assign MMI to felt earthquakes occurring in the United States between 1931 and 1986. We refer to the MMI assigned in this report as traditional MMI, because they are based on responses to postal questionnaires and on newspaper reports, and to distinguish them from MMI calculated from data contributed by the public by way of the internet. Maximum traditional MMI documented for the M5 and larger earthquakes are VII for the 1990 Deming earthquake, V for the 1995 Point Robinson earthquake, VI for the 1996 Duvall earthquake, and VII for the 1999 Satsop earthquake; the five other earthquakes were variously assigned maximum intensities of IV, V, or VI. Starting in 1995, the Pacific Northwest Seismic Network (PNSN) published MMI maps for four of the studied earthquakes, based on macroseismic observations submitted by the public by way of the internet. With the availability now of the traditional USGS MMI interpreted for all the sites from which USGS postal questionnaires were returned, the four Washington earthquakes join a rather small group of earthquakes for which both traditional USGS MMI and some type of internet-based MMI have been assigned. The values and distributions of the traditional MMI are broadly similar to the internet-based PNSN intensities; we discuss some

  5. Clinical characteristics of patients with ischemic stroke following the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Inatomi, Yuichiro; Nakajima, Makoto; Yonehara, Toshiro; Ando, Yukio

    2017-12-01

    To investigate the clinical characteristics of patients with ischemic stroke following the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake. We retrospectively studied patients with ischemic stroke admitted to our hospital for 12weeks following the earthquake. We compared the clinical backgrounds and characteristics of the patients: before (the same period from the previous 3years) and after the earthquake; and the early (first 2weeks) and late (subsequent 10weeks) phases. A total of 194 patients with ischemic stroke were admitted to our hospital after the earthquake; 496 (165.3/year) patients were admitted before the earthquake. No differences between the two groups were noted for the clinical backgrounds, characteristics, or biomarkers. Past history of sleeping in a shelter or small vehicle was found in 13% and 28% of patients, respectively. Sleeping in a shelter (27% vs. 10%, p=0.013) was found more frequently in patients during the early phase than during the late phase after the earthquake. Admission of patients with ischemic stroke increased after the earthquake; however no differences between before and after the earthquake were noted for their clinical characteristics. To prevent ischemic stroke following earthquakes, mental stress and physical status of evacuees must be assessed. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Source mechanism inversion and ground motion modeling of induced earthquakes in Kuwait - A Bayesian approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gu, C.; Toksoz, M. N.; Marzouk, Y.; Al-Enezi, A.; Al-Jeri, F.; Buyukozturk, O.

    2016-12-01

    The increasing seismic activity in the regions of oil/gas fields due to fluid injection/extraction and hydraulic fracturing has drawn new attention in both academia and industry. Source mechanism and triggering stress of these induced earthquakes are of great importance for understanding the physics of the seismic processes in reservoirs, and predicting ground motion in the vicinity of oil/gas fields. The induced seismicity data in our study are from Kuwait National Seismic Network (KNSN). Historically, Kuwait has low local seismicity; however, in recent years the KNSN has monitored more and more local earthquakes. Since 1997, the KNSN has recorded more than 1000 earthquakes (Mw Institutions for Seismology (IRIS) and KNSN, and widely felt by people in Kuwait. These earthquakes happen repeatedly in the same locations close to the oil/gas fields in Kuwait (see the uploaded image). The earthquakes are generally small (Mw stress of these earthquakes was calculated based on the source mechanisms results. In addition, we modeled the ground motion in Kuwait due to these local earthquakes. Our results show that most likely these local earthquakes occurred on pre-existing faults and were triggered by oil field activities. These events are generally smaller than Mw 5; however, these events, occurring in the reservoirs, are very shallow with focal depths less than about 4 km. As a result, in Kuwait, where oil fields are close to populated areas, these induced earthquakes could produce ground accelerations high enough to cause damage to local structures without using seismic design criteria.

  7. Spatial Distribution of the Coefficient of Variation for the Paleo-Earthquakes in Japan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nomura, S.; Ogata, Y.

    2015-12-01

    Renewal processes, point prccesses in which intervals between consecutive events are independently and identically distributed, are frequently used to describe this repeating earthquake mechanism and forecast the next earthquakes. However, one of the difficulties in applying recurrent earthquake models is the scarcity of the historical data. Most studied fault segments have few, or only one observed earthquake that often have poorly constrained historic and/or radiocarbon ages. The maximum likelihood estimate from such a small data set can have a large bias and error, which tends to yield high probability for the next event in a very short time span when the recurrence intervals have similar lengths. On the other hand, recurrence intervals at a fault depend on the long-term slip rate caused by the tectonic motion in average. In addition, recurrence times are also fluctuated by nearby earthquakes or fault activities which encourage or discourage surrounding seismicity. These factors have spatial trends due to the heterogeneity of tectonic motion and seismicity. Thus, this paper introduces a spatial structure on the key parameters of renewal processes for recurrent earthquakes and estimates it by using spatial statistics. Spatial variation of mean and variance parameters of recurrence times are estimated in Bayesian framework and the next earthquakes are forecasted by Bayesian predictive distributions. The proposal model is applied for recurrent earthquake catalog in Japan and its result is compared with the current forecast adopted by the Earthquake Research Committee of Japan.

  8. Insight into the Earthquake Risk Information Seeking Behavior of the Victims: Evidence from Songyuan, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shasha Li

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Efficient risk communication is a vital way to reduce the vulnerability of individuals when facing emergency risks, especially regarding earthquakes. Efficient risk communication aims at improving the supply of risk information and fulfilling the need for risk information by individuals. Therefore, an investigation into individual-level information seeking behavior within earthquake risk contexts is very important for improved earthquake risk communication. However, at present there are very few studies that have explored the behavior of individuals seeking earthquake risk information. Under the guidance of the Risk Information Seeking and Processing model as well as relevant practical findings using the structural equation model, this study attempts to explore the main determinants of an individual’s earthquake risk information seeking behavior, and to validate the mediator effect of information need during the seeking process. A questionnaire-based survey of 918 valid respondents in Songyuan, China, who had been hit by a small earthquake swarm, was used to provide practical evidence for this study. Results indicated that information need played a noteworthy role in the earthquake risk information seeking process, and was detected both as an immediate predictor and as a mediator. Informational subjective norms drive the seeking behavior on earthquake risk information through both direct and indirect approaches. Perceived information gathering capacity, negative affective responses and risk perception have an indirect effect on earthquake risk information seeking behavior via information need. The implications for theory and practice regarding risk communication are discussed and concluded.

  9. Regional fault deformation characteristics before and after the Menyuan Ms6.4 earthquake

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ning Li

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available This study analyzes data regarding cross-fault deformations within the seismogenic zone of the 2016 Qinghai Menyuan Ms6.4 earthquake and its surrounding area. The results showed that the tendency anomaly sites near the epicenter had relatively long anomaly durations prior to the earthquake, while sudden-jumping anomaly sites started to increase in the middle eastern Qilian Mountains approximately a year before the earthquake and continued to increase and migrate towards the vicinity of the epicenter two to six months before the earthquake. Intensive observations a few days after the earthquake indicated that abnormal returns and turns before the earthquake were significant, but all had small amplitudes, and the coseismic effect was generally minor. In addition, the post-seismic tendency analysis of individual cross faults in the Qilian Mountain fault zone revealed an accelerating thrust tendency at all cross-fault sites in the middle Qilian Mountains after the 2008 Wenchuan Ms8.0 earthquake. This indicates that the Wenchuan mega-earthquake exerted a great impact on the dynamic environment of the northeastern margin of the Qinghai-Tibet plate and significantly enhanced the extrusion effect of the Indian plate on the middle Qilian Mountains, generating favorable conditions for the occurrence of Menyuan thrust earthquakes.

  10. Characteristic behavior of water radon associated with Wenchuan and Lushan earthquakes along Longmenshan fault

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ye, Qing; Singh, Ramesh P.; He, Anhua; Ji, Shouwen; Liu, Chunguo

    2015-01-01

    In China, numerous subsurface, surface water well and spring parameters are being monitored through a large network of stations distributed in China sponsored by China Earthquake Administration (CEA). All the data from these network is managed by China Earthquake Network Center (CENC). In this paper, we have used numerous data (water radon, gas radon, water level, water temperature) available through CENC for the period 2002–2014 and studied the behavior and characteristics of water 222 radon [Rn(w)]. The observed parameters were also complemented by rainfall data retrieved from Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite. Our detailed analysis shows pronounced changes in the observed parameters (especially water and gas radon) prior to the earthquake. The changes in water radon, ground water level and rainfall showing characteristics behavior for Wenchuan and Lushan earthquakes. The long term data analysis of water radon and water level at various locations around epicenters of two major earthquakes along Longmenshan fault show a positive and negative relation of water radon and water level prior to these earthquakes. It is difficult to find any trend of water radon and changes in water radon pattern with these two earthquakes that could prove as a reliable precursor of earthquakes. Changes in the water radon concentrations from one location to other may be associated with the changes in ground water regime and geological settings in the epicentral and surrounding regions. - Highlights: • Long trend of water radon measured in China during 2003–2014 at six stations round Longmenshan fault. • Water radon shows characteristics behavior associated with Wenchuan and Lushan earthquakes. • Water radon shows one to one relation with rainfall and ground water level variations. • Sharp increase or decrease in water radon concentrations are found few days prior to the earthquake

  11. Comparison of earthquake source parameters and interseismic plate coupling variations in global subduction zones (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bilek, S. L.; Moyer, P. A.; Stankova-Pursley, J.

    2010-12-01

    Geodetically determined interseismic coupling variations have been found in subduction zones worldwide. These coupling variations have been linked to heterogeneities in interplate fault frictional conditions. These connections to fault friction imply that observed coupling variations are also important in influencing details in earthquake rupture behavior. Because of the wealth of newly available geodetic models along many subduction zones, it is now possible to examine detailed variations in coupling and compare to seismicity characteristics. Here we use a large catalog of earthquake source time functions and slip models for moderate to large magnitude earthquakes to explore these connections, comparing earthquake source parameters with available models of geodetic coupling along segments of the Japan, Kurile, Kamchatka, Peru, Chile, and Alaska subduction zones. In addition, we use published geodetic results along the Costa Rica margin to compare with source parameters of small magnitude earthquakes recorded with an onshore-offshore network of seismometers. For the moderate to large magnitude earthquakes, preliminary results suggest a complex relationship between earthquake parameters and estimates of strongly and weakly coupled segments of the plate interface. For example, along the Kamchatka subduction zone, these earthquakes occur primarily along the transition between strong and weak coupling, with significant heterogeneity in the pattern of moment scaled duration with respect to the coupling estimates. The longest scaled duration event in this catalog occurred in a region of strong coupling. Earthquakes along the transition between strong and weakly coupled exhibited the most complexity in the source time functions. Use of small magnitude (0.5 earthquake spectra, with higher corner frequencies and higher mean apparent stress for earthquakes that occur in along the Osa Peninsula relative to the Nicoya Peninsula, mimicking the along-strike variations in

  12. Tsunami inundation variability from stochastic rupture scenarios: Application to multiple inversions of the 2011 Tohoku, Japan earthquake

    KAUST Repository

    Mori, Nobuhito; Mai, Paul Martin; Goda, Katsuichiro; Yasuda, Tomohiro

    2017-01-01

    earthquake in the Tohoku region to conduct thorough sensitivity analyses and to quantify the inundation variability. The numerical results indicate a strong influence of the reference source models on inundation variability, and demonstrate significant

  13. Source discrimination between Mining blasts and Earthquakes in Tianshan orogenic belt, NW China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, L.; Zhang, M.; Wen, L.

    2017-12-01

    In recent years, a large number of quarry blasts have been detonated in Tianshan Mountains of China. It is necessary to discriminate those non-earthquake records from the earthquake catalogs in order to determine the real seismicity of the region. In this study, we have investigated spectral ratios and amplitude ratios as discriminants for regional seismic-event identification using explosions and earthquakes recorded at Xinjiang Seismic Network (XJSN) of China. We used a data set that includes 1071 earthquakes and 2881 non-earthquakes as training data recorded by the XJSN between years of 2009 and 2016, with both types of events in a comparable local magnitude range (1.5 to 2.9). The non-earthquake and earthquake groups were well separated by amplitude ratios of Pg/Sg, with the separation increasing with frequency when averaged over three stations. The 8- to 15-Hz Pg/Sg ratio was proved to be the most precise and accurate discriminant, which works for more than 90% of the events. In contrast, the P spectral ratio performed considerably worse with a significant overlap (about 60% overlap) between the earthquake and explosion populations. The comparison results show amplitude ratios between compressional and shear waves discriminate better than low-frequency to high-frequency spectral ratios for individual phases. In discriminating between explosions and earthquakes, none of two discriminants were able to completely separate the two populations of events. However, a joint discrimination scheme employing simple majority voting reduces misclassifications to 10%. In the region of the study, 44% of the examined seismic events were determined to be non-earthquakes and 55% to be earthquakes. The earthquakes occurring on land are related to small faults, while the blasts are concentrated in large quarries.

  14. Numerical Relativity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baker, John G.

    2009-01-01

    Recent advances in numerical relativity have fueled an explosion of progress in understanding the predictions of Einstein's theory of gravity, General Relativity, for the strong field dynamics, the gravitational radiation wave forms, and consequently the state of the remnant produced from the merger of compact binary objects. I will review recent results from the field, focusing on mergers of two black holes.

  15. ANALYSIS OF REGULARITIES IN DISTRIBUTION OF EARTHQUAKES BY FOCAL DISPLACEMENT IN THE KURIL-OKHOTSK REGION BEFORE THE CATASTROPHIC SIMUSHIR EARTHQUAKE OF 15 NOVEMBER 2006

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Timofei K. Zlobin

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The catastrophic Simushir earthquake occurred on 15 November 2006 in the Kuril-Okhotsk region in the Middle Kuril Islands which is a transition zone between the Eurasian continent and the Pacific Ocean. It was followed by numerous strong earthquakes. It is established that the catastrophic earthquake was prepared on a site characterized by increased relative effective pressures which is located at the border of the low-pressure area (Figure 1.Based on data from GlobalCMT (Harvard, earthquake focal mechanisms were reconstructed, and tectonic stresses, the seismotectonic setting and the earthquakes distribution pattern were studied for analysis of the field of stresses in the region before to the Simushir earthquake (Figures 2 and 3; Table 1.Five areas of various types of movement were determined. Three of them are stretched along the Kuril Islands. It is established that seismodislocations in earthquake focal areas are regularly distributed. In each of the determined areas, displacements of a specific type (shear or reverse shear are concentrated and give evidence of the alteration and change of zones characterized by horizontal stretching and compression.The presence of the horizontal stretching and compression zones can be explained by a model of subduction (Figure 4. Detailed studies of the state of stresses of the Kuril region confirm such zones (Figure 5. Recent GeodynamicsThe established specific features of tectonic stresses before the catastrophic Simushir earthquake of 15 November 2006 contribute to studies of earthquake forecasting problems. The state of stresses and the geodynamic conditions suggesting occurrence of new earthquakes can be assessed from the data on the distribution of horizontal compression, stretching and shear areas of the Earth’s crust and the upper mantle in the Kuril region.

  16. Reproductive and Birth Outcomes in Haiti Before and After the 2010 Earthquake.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harville, Emily W; Do, Mai

    2016-02-01

    We aimed to examine the relationship between exposure to the 2010 Haiti earthquake and pregnancy wantedness, interpregnancy interval, and birth weight. From the nationally representative Haiti 2012 Demographic and Health Survey, information on "size of child at birth" (too small or not) was available for 7280 singleton births in the previous 5 years, whereas information on birth weight was available for 1607 births. Pregnancy wantedness, short (earthquake and by level of damage. Multiple logistic regression and linear regression analyses were conducted. Post-earthquake births were less likely to be wanted and more likely to be born after a short interpregnancy interval. Earthquake exposure was associated with increased likelihood of a child being born too small: timing of birth (after earthquake vs. before earthquake, adjusted odds ratio [aOR]: 1.27, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.12-1.45), region (hardest-hit vs. rest of country; aOR: 1.43, 95% CI: 1.14- 1.80), and house damage (aOR: 1.27 95% CI: 1.02-1.58). Mean birth weight was 150 to 300 g lower in those exposed to the earthquake. Experience with the earthquake was associated with worse reproductive and birth outcomes, which underscores the need to provide reproductive health services as part of relief efforts.

  17. Development of numerical concepts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sabine Peucker

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available The development of numerical concepts is described from infancy to preschool age. Infants a few days old exhibit an early sensitivity for numerosities. In the course of development, nonverbal mental models allow for the exact representation of small quantities as well as changes in these quantities. Subitising, as the accurate recognition of small numerosities (without counting, plays an important role. It can be assumed that numerical concepts and procedures start with insights about small numerosities. Protoquantitative schemata comprise fundamental knowledge about quantities. One-to-one-correspondence connects elements and numbers, and, for this reason, both quantitative and numerical knowledge. If children understand that they can determine the numerosity of a collection of elements by enumerating the elements, they have acquired the concept of cardinality. Protoquantitative knowledge becomes quantitative if it can be applied to numerosities and sequential numbers. The concepts of cardinality and part-part-whole are key to numerical development. Developmentally appropriate learning and teaching should focus on cardinality and part-part-whole concepts.

  18. The finite-difference and finite-element modeling of seismic wave propagation and earthquake motion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moszo, P.; Kristek, J.; Galis, M.; Pazak, P.; Balazovijech, M.

    2006-01-01

    Numerical modeling of seismic wave propagation and earthquake motion is an irreplaceable tool in investigation of the Earth's structure, processes in the Earth, and particularly earthquake phenomena. Among various numerical methods, the finite-difference method is the dominant method in the modeling of earthquake motion. Moreover, it is becoming more important in the seismic exploration and structural modeling. At the same time we are convinced that the best time of the finite-difference method in seismology is in the future. This monograph provides tutorial and detailed introduction to the application of the finite-difference, finite-element, and hybrid finite-difference-finite-element methods to the modeling of seismic wave propagation and earthquake motion. The text does not cover all topics and aspects of the methods. We focus on those to which we have contributed. (Author)

  19. Earthquake damage to underground facilities and earthquake related displacement fields

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pratt, H.R.; Stephenson, D.E.; Zandt, G.; Bouchon, M.; Hustrulid, W.A.

    1982-01-01

    The potential seismic risk for an underground facility is considered in the evaluation of its location and design. The possible damage resulting from either large-scale displacements or high accelerations should be considered in evaluating potential sites of underground facilities. Scattered through the available literature are statements to the effect that below a few hundred meters shaking and damage in mines is less than at the surface; however, data for decreased damage underground have not been completely reported or explained. In order to assess the seismic risk for an underground facility, a data base was established and analyzed to evaluate the potential for seismic disturbance. Substantial damage to underground facilities is usually the result of displacements primarily along pre-existing faults and fractures, or at the surface entrance to these facilities. Evidence of this comes from both earthquakes as a function of depth is important in the evaluation of the hazard to underground facilities. To evaluate potential displacements due to seismic effects of block motions along pre-existing or induced fractures, the displacement fields surrounding two types of faults were investigated. Analytical models were used to determine relative displacements of shafts and near-surface displacement of large rock masses. Numerical methods were used to determine the displacement fields associated with pure strike-slip and vertical normal faults. Results are presented as displacements for various fault lengths as a function of depth and distance. This provides input to determine potential displacements in terms of depth and distance for underground facilities, important for assessing potential sites and design parameters

  20. Spatial correlation of probabilistic earthquake ground motion and loss

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wesson, R.L.; Perkins, D.M.

    2001-01-01

    Spatial correlation of annual earthquake ground motions and losses can be used to estimate the variance of annual losses to a portfolio of properties exposed to earthquakes A direct method is described for the calculations of the spatial correlation of earthquake ground motions and losses. Calculations for the direct method can be carried out using either numerical quadrature or a discrete, matrix-based approach. Numerical results for this method are compared with those calculated from a simple Monte Carlo simulation. Spatial correlation of ground motion and loss is induced by the systematic attenuation of ground motion with distance from the source, by common site conditions, and by the finite length of fault ruptures. Spatial correlation is also strongly dependent on the partitioning of the variability, given an event, into interevent and intraevent components. Intraevent variability reduces the spatial correlation of losses. Interevent variability increases spatial correlation of losses. The higher the spatial correlation, the larger the variance in losses to a port-folio, and the more likely extreme values become. This result underscores the importance of accurately determining the relative magnitudes of intraevent and interevent variability in ground-motion studies, because of the strong impact in estimating earthquake losses to a portfolio. The direct method offers an alternative to simulation for calculating the variance of losses to a portfolio, which may reduce the amount of calculation required.

  1. Earthquake Emergency Education in Dushanbe, Tajikistan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohadjer, Solmaz; Bendick, Rebecca; Halvorson, Sarah J.; Saydullaev, Umed; Hojiboev, Orifjon; Stickler, Christine; Adam, Zachary R.

    2010-01-01

    We developed a middle school earthquake science and hazards curriculum to promote earthquake awareness to students in the Central Asian country of Tajikistan. These materials include pre- and post-assessment activities, six science activities describing physical processes related to earthquakes, five activities on earthquake hazards and mitigation…

  2. Determination of Design Basis Earthquake ground motion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kato, Muneaki

    1997-01-01

    This paper describes principle of determining of Design Basis Earthquake following the Examination Guide, some examples on actual sites including earthquake sources to be considered, earthquake response spectrum and simulated seismic waves. In sppendix of this paper, furthermore, seismic safety review for N.P.P designed before publication of the Examination Guide was summarized with Check Basis Earthquake. (J.P.N.)

  3. Determination of Design Basis Earthquake ground motion

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kato, Muneaki [Japan Atomic Power Co., Tokyo (Japan)

    1997-03-01

    This paper describes principle of determining of Design Basis Earthquake following the Examination Guide, some examples on actual sites including earthquake sources to be considered, earthquake response spectrum and simulated seismic waves. In sppendix of this paper, furthermore, seismic safety review for N.P.P designed before publication of the Examination Guide was summarized with Check Basis Earthquake. (J.P.N.)

  4. Variations of gravity before and after the Haicheng earthquake, 1975, and the Tangshan earthquake, 1976

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chen, Y.; Gu, H.; Lu, Z.

    1980-02-01

    From the results, there seems to be a close relationship between gravity variations and the occurrence of earthquakes. Based on results of repeated leveling work done in these regions, the estimated amount of gravity change caused by the change of elevation of the ground surface is far too small to account for the observed value. It is speculated that some big earthquakes might be associated with some sort of mass migration under the ground, within the crust or in the upper mantle. This migration would cause a large part of the gravity variation observed. Researchers have made a theoretical analysis of this effect and attempted to get some estimate of the rate of this mass migration, even though the physics of it is not clear.

  5. Earthquake prediction by Kina Method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kianoosh, H.; Keypour, H.; Naderzadeh, A.; Motlagh, H.F.

    2005-01-01

    Earthquake prediction has been one of the earliest desires of the man. Scientists have worked hard to predict earthquakes for a long time. The results of these efforts can generally be divided into two methods of prediction: 1) Statistical Method, and 2) Empirical Method. In the first method, earthquakes are predicted using statistics and probabilities, while the second method utilizes variety of precursors for earthquake prediction. The latter method is time consuming and more costly. However, the result of neither method has fully satisfied the man up to now. In this paper a new method entitled 'Kiana Method' is introduced for earthquake prediction. This method offers more accurate results yet lower cost comparing to other conventional methods. In Kiana method the electrical and magnetic precursors are measured in an area. Then, the time and the magnitude of an earthquake in the future is calculated using electrical, and in particular, electrical capacitors formulas. In this method, by daily measurement of electrical resistance in an area we make clear that the area is capable of earthquake occurrence in the future or not. If the result shows a positive sign, then the occurrence time and the magnitude can be estimated by the measured quantities. This paper explains the procedure and details of this prediction method. (authors)

  6. Precisely locating the Klamath Falls, Oregon, earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qamar, A.; Meagher, K.L.

    1993-01-01

    The Klamath Falls earthquakes on September 20, 1993, were the largest earthquakes centered in Oregon in more than 50 yrs. Only the magnitude 5.75 Milton-Freewater earthquake in 1936, which was centered near the Oregon-Washington border and felt in an area of about 190,000 sq km, compares in size with the recent Klamath Falls earthquakes. Although the 1993 earthquakes surprised many local residents, geologists have long recognized that strong earthquakes may occur along potentially active faults that pass through the Klamath Falls area. These faults are geologically related to similar faults in Oregon, Idaho, and Nevada that occasionally spawn strong earthquakes

  7. Finite element analysis of skirted foundation adjacent to sand slope under earthquake loading

    OpenAIRE

    Azzam, W.R.

    2015-01-01

    This paper reports the application of using a skirted foundation system to study the behavior of foundations with structural skirts adjacent to a sand slope and subjected to earthquake loading. The effect of the adopted skirts to safeguard foundation and slope from collapse is studied. The skirts effect on controlling horizontal soil movement and decreasing pore water pressure beneath foundations and beside the slopes during earthquake is investigated. This technique is investigated numerical...

  8. Rocking motion of structures under earthquakes. Overturning of 2-DOF system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kobayashi, Koichi; Watanabe, Tetsuya; Tanaka, Kihachiro; Tomoda, Akinori

    2011-01-01

    In recent years, huge earthquakes happen, for example, The South Hyogo prefecture Earthquake in 1995, The Mid Niigata Prefecture Earthquake in 2004, The Iwate-Miyagi Nairiku Earthquake in 2008. In The Niigataken Chuetsu-oki Earthquake in 2007, hundreds of drums fell down and water spilled out. A lot of studies about rocking behavior of rigid body had been performed from 1960's. However, these studies were only for a specific condition of the structure size or input vibration characteristics. Therefore, generalizes fall condition for earthquake is required. This paper deals with the analytical and the experimental study of the rocking vibration of 1-DOF rocking system, 2-DOF vibration-rocking system and 2-DOF rocking system under earthquakes. In this study, the equation of motion for each rocking systems are developed. The numerical model of 2-DOF rocking system is evaluated by free rocking experiment. In this paper, 'Overturning Map' which can distinguish whether structures falls or not is proposed. The overturning map of each rocking systems excited by the artificial earthquake wave calculated from the design spectrum is shown. As the result, overturning condition of structures is clarified. (author)

  9. Quantitative prediction of strong motion for a potential earthquake fault

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shamita Das

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available This paper describes a new method for calculating strong motion records for a given seismic region on the basis of the laws of physics using information on the tectonics and physical properties of the earthquake fault. Our method is based on a earthquake model, called a «barrier model», which is characterized by five source parameters: fault length, width, maximum slip, rupture velocity, and barrier interval. The first three parameters may be constrained from plate tectonics, and the fourth parameter is roughly a constant. The most important parameter controlling the earthquake strong motion is the last parameter, «barrier interval». There are three methods to estimate the barrier interval for a given seismic region: 1 surface measurement of slip across fault breaks, 2 model fitting with observed near and far-field seismograms, and 3 scaling law data for small earthquakes in the region. The barrier intervals were estimated for a dozen earthquakes and four seismic regions by the above three methods. Our preliminary results for California suggest that the barrier interval may be determined if the maximum slip is given. The relation between the barrier interval and maximum slip varies from one seismic region to another. For example, the interval appears to be unusually long for Kilauea, Hawaii, which may explain why only scattered evidence of strong ground shaking was observed in the epicentral area of the Island of Hawaii earthquake of November 29, 1975. The stress drop associated with an individual fault segment estimated from the barrier interval and maximum slip lies between 100 and 1000 bars. These values are about one order of magnitude greater than those estimated earlier by the use of crack models without barriers. Thus, the barrier model can resolve, at least partially, the well known discrepancy between the stress-drops measured in the laboratory and those estimated for earthquakes.

  10. Urban Landslides Induced by the 2004 Niigata-Chuetsu Earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kamai, T.; Trandafir, A. C.; Sidle, R. C.

    2005-05-01

    Landslides triggered by the Chuetsu earthquake occurred in artificial slopes of some new developments in suburban Nagaoka, the largest city in the affected area. The landslides occurred in hilly terrain of the eastern part of Nagaoka between the alluvial plain and Tertiary folded mountains of Yamakoshi. Although the extent of landslides in urban Nagaoka was small compared with landslides on natural slopes (especially near Yamakoshi), they represent an important case study for urban landslide disasters. Slope instabilities in urban residential areas were classified as: A) landslides in steep embankments; B) landslides in gently sloping artificial valley fills; C) re-activation of old landslides; and D) liquefaction in deep artificial valley fills. All these failures occurred in relatively uniform suburban landscapes, which were significantly modified from the original landforms. Recent destructive earthquakes in Japan caused similar types of slope failures in urban regions, suggesting that lessons from past earthquakes were not implemented. The greatest damage due to type-A failures occurred in the 25-yr old Takamachi residential area, where about 70 of 522 homes were judged to be uninhabitable. Before development, this area was an isolated hill (90 m elevation) with an adjacent terrace (60 m elevation) consisting of gravel, sand, and silt of the lower to middle Pleistocene deposits. Development earthworks removed the hill crest and created a wide plateau (70 m elevation); excavated soil was placed on the perimeter as an embankment. During the earthquake, the embankment slope collapsed, including retaining walls, perimeter road, and homes. The most serious damage occurred in five places around the margin of the plateau corresponding to shallow valley fills (5 to 8 m thick). Earthquake response analyses using an equivalent linear model indicated the amplification of seismic waves at the surface of embankment slopes, and the peak earthquake acceleration exceeded 1 G

  11. Analysis of Earthquake Source Spectra in Salton Trough

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, X.; Shearer, P. M.

    2009-12-01

    Previous studies of the source spectra of small earthquakes in southern California show that average Brune-type stress drops vary among different regions, with particularly low stress drops observed in the Salton Trough (Shearer et al., 2006). The Salton Trough marks the southern end of the San Andreas Fault and is prone to earthquake swarms, some of which are driven by aseismic creep events (Lohman and McGuire, 2007). In order to learn the stress state and understand the physical mechanisms of swarms and slow slip events, we analyze the source spectra of earthquakes in this region. We obtain Southern California Seismic Network (SCSN) waveforms for earthquakes from 1977 to 2009 archived at the Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC) data center, which includes over 17,000 events. After resampling the data to a uniform 100 Hz sample rate, we compute spectra for both signal and noise windows for each seismogram, and select traces with a P-wave signal-to-noise ratio greater than 5 between 5 Hz and 15 Hz. Using selected displacement spectra, we isolate the source spectra from station terms and path effects using an empirical Green’s function approach. From the corrected source spectra, we compute corner frequencies and estimate moments and stress drops. Finally we analyze spatial and temporal variations in stress drop in the Salton Trough and compare them with studies of swarms and creep events to assess the evolution of faulting and stress in the region. References: Lohman, R. B., and J. J. McGuire (2007), Earthquake swarms driven by aseismic creep in the Salton Trough, California, J. Geophys. Res., 112, B04405, doi:10.1029/2006JB004596 Shearer, P. M., G. A. Prieto, and E. Hauksson (2006), Comprehensive analysis of earthquake source spectra in southern California, J. Geophys. Res., 111, B06303, doi:10.1029/2005JB003979.

  12. The Pocatello Valley, Idaho, earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rogers, A. M.; Langer, C.J.; Bucknam, R.C.

    1975-01-01

    A Richter magnitude 6.3 earthquake occurred at 8:31 p.m mountain daylight time on March 27, 1975, near the Utah-Idaho border in Pocatello Valley. The epicenter of the main shock was located at 42.094° N, 112.478° W, and had a focal depth of 5.5 km. This earthquake was the largest in the continental United States since the destructive San Fernando earthquake of February 1971. The main shock was preceded by a magnitude 4.5 foreshock on March 26. 

  13. The threat of silent earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cervelli, Peter

    2004-01-01

    Not all earthquakes shake the ground. The so-called silent types are forcing scientists to rethink their understanding of the way quake-prone faults behave. In rare instances, silent earthquakes that occur along the flakes of seaside volcanoes may cascade into monstrous landslides that crash into the sea and trigger towering tsunamis. Silent earthquakes that take place within fault zones created by one tectonic plate diving under another may increase the chance of ground-shaking shocks. In other locations, however, silent slip may decrease the likelihood of destructive quakes, because they release stress along faults that might otherwise seem ready to snap.

  14. USGS Earthquake Program GPS Use Case : Earthquake Early Warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-03-12

    USGS GPS receiver use case. Item 1 - High Precision User (federal agency with Stafford Act hazard alert responsibilities for earthquakes, volcanoes and landslides nationwide). Item 2 - Description of Associated GPS Application(s): The USGS Eart...

  15. EARTHQUAKE-INDUCED DEFORMATION STRUCTURES AND RELATED TO EARTHQUAKE MAGNITUDES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Savaş TOPAL

    2003-02-01

    Full Text Available Earthquake-induced deformation structures which are called seismites may helpful to clasify the paleoseismic history of a location and to estimate the magnitudes of the potention earthquakes in the future. In this paper, seismites were investigated according to the types formed in deep and shallow lake sediments. Seismites are observed forms of sand dikes, introduced and fractured gravels and pillow structures in shallow lakes and pseudonodules, mushroom-like silts protruding laminites, mixed layers, disturbed varved lamination and loop bedding in deep lake sediments. Earthquake-induced deformation structures, by benefiting from previous studies, were ordered according to their formations and earthquake magnitudes. In this order, the lowest eartquake's record is loop bedding and the highest one is introduced and fractured gravels in lacustrine deposits.

  16. Numerical relativity

    CERN Document Server

    Nakamura, T

    1993-01-01

    In GR13 we heard many reports on recent. progress as well as future plans of detection of gravitational waves. According to these reports (see the report of the workshop on the detection of gravitational waves by Paik in this volume), it is highly probable that the sensitivity of detectors such as laser interferometers and ultra low temperature resonant bars will reach the level of h ~ 10—21 by 1998. in this level we may expect the detection of the gravitational waves from astrophysical sources such as coalescing binary neutron stars once a year or so. Therefore the progress in numerical relativity is urgently required to predict the wave pattern and amplitude of the gravitational waves from realistic astrophysical sources. The time left for numerical relativists is only six years or so although there are so many difficulties in principle as well as in practice.

  17. Urban Policies and Earthquake Risk Mitigation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sarlo, Antonella

    2008-01-01

    The paper aims at proposing some considerations about some recent experiences of research carried out on the theme of earthquake risk mitigation and combining policies and actions of mitigation with urban development strategies. The objective was to go beyond the classical methodological approach aiming at defining a 'technical' evaluation of the earthquake risk through a procedure which can correlate the three 'components' of danger, exposure and vulnerability. These researches experiment, in terms of methodology and application, with a new category of interpretation and strategy: the so-called Struttura Urbana Minima (Minimum urban structure).Actually, the introduction of the Struttura Urbana Minima establishes a different approach towards the theme of safety in the field of earthquake risk, since it leads to a wider viewpoint, combining the building aspect of the issue with the purely urban one, involving not only town planning, but also social and managerial implications.In this sense the constituent logic of these researches is strengthened by two fundamental issues:- The social awareness of earthquake;- The inclusion of mitigation policies in the ordinary strategies for town and territory management. Three main aspects of the first point, that is of the 'social awareness of earthquake', characterize this issue and demand to be considered within a prevention policy:- The central role of the risk as a social production,- The central role of the local community consent,- The central role of the local community capability to planTherefore, consent, considered not only as acceptance, but above all as participation in the elaboration and implementation of choices, plays a crucial role in the wider issue of prevention policies.As far as the second point is concerned, the inclusion of preventive mitigation policies in ordinary strategies for the town and territory management demands the identification of criteria of choice and priorities of intervention and, as a

  18. Web-Based Real Time Earthquake Forecasting and Personal Risk Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rundle, J. B.; Holliday, J. R.; Graves, W. R.; Turcotte, D. L.; Donnellan, A.

    2012-12-01

    Earthquake forecasts have been computed by a variety of countries and economies world-wide for over two decades. For the most part, forecasts have been computed for insurance, reinsurance and underwriters of catastrophe bonds. One example is the Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities that has been responsible for the official California earthquake forecast since 1988. However, in a time of increasingly severe global financial constraints, we are now moving inexorably towards personal risk management, wherein mitigating risk is becoming the responsibility of individual members of the public. Under these circumstances, open access to a variety of web-based tools, utilities and information is a necessity. Here we describe a web-based system that has been operational since 2009 at www.openhazards.com and www.quakesim.org. Models for earthquake physics and forecasting require input data, along with model parameters. The models we consider are the Natural Time Weibull (NTW) model for regional earthquake forecasting, together with models for activation and quiescence. These models use small earthquakes ('seismicity-based models") to forecast the occurrence of large earthquakes, either through varying rates of small earthquake activity, or via an accumulation of this activity over time. These approaches use data-mining algorithms combined with the ANSS earthquake catalog. The basic idea is to compute large earthquake probabilities using the number of small earthquakes that have occurred in a region since the last large earthquake. Each of these approaches has computational challenges associated with computing forecast information in real time. Using 25 years of data from the ANSS California-Nevada catalog of earthquakes, we show that real-time forecasting is possible at a grid scale of 0.1o. We have analyzed the performance of these models using Reliability/Attributes and standard Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) tests. We show how the Reliability and

  19. Stability of the slopes around nuclear power plants in earthquake

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ito, Hiroshi

    1983-01-01

    The evaluation of the stability of the slopes around the buildings of nuclear power plants is important especially with respect to earthquakes. In this connection, the behavior of a slope up to its destruction and the phenomena of the destruction have been examined in the case of an earthquake by both experiment and numerical analysis. The purpose is to obtain the data for the establishment of a method for evaluating the seismic stability of a slope and of the slope design standards. The following results are described: the behavior of a slope and its destruction characteristics in the slope destruction experiment simulating the seismic coefficient method; the vibration of a slope and its destruction characteristics in vibration destruction experiment; the validity of the method of numerical simulation analysis and of stability evaluation for the slope destruction and the vibration destruction experiments, and quantitative destruction mechanism; the comparison of the various stability evaluation methods and the evaluation of seismic forces. (Mori, K.)

  20. A methodology to estimate earthquake effects on fractures intersecting canister holes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    La Pointe, P.; Wallmann, P.; Thomas, A.; Follin, S. [Golder Assocites Inc. (Sweden)

    1997-03-01

    A literature review and a preliminary numerical modeling study were carried out to develop and demonstrate a method for estimating displacements on fractures near to or intersecting canister emplacement holes. The method can be applied during preliminary evaluation of candidate sites prior to any detailed drilling or underground excavation, utilizing lineament maps and published regression relations between surface rupture trace length and earthquake magnitude, rupture area and displacements. The calculated displacements can be applied to lineament traces which are assumed to be faults and may be the sites for future earthquakes. Next, a discrete fracture model is created for secondary faulting and jointing in the vicinity of the repository. These secondary fractures may displace due to the earthquake on the primary faults. The three-dimensional numerical model assumes linear elasticity and linear elastic fracture mechanics which provides a conservative displacement estimate, while still preserving realistic fracture patterns. Two series of numerical studies were undertaken to demonstrate how the methodology could be implemented and how results could be applied to questions regarding site selection and performance assessment. The first series illustrates how earthquake damage to a hypothetical repository for a specified location (Aespoe) could be estimated. A second series examined the displacements induced by earthquakes varying in magnitude from 6.0 to 8.2 as a function of how close the earthquake was in relation to the repository. 143 refs, 25 figs, 7 tabs.

  1. A methodology to estimate earthquake effects on fractures intersecting canister holes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    La Pointe, P.; Wallmann, P.; Thomas, A.; Follin, S.

    1997-03-01

    A literature review and a preliminary numerical modeling study were carried out to develop and demonstrate a method for estimating displacements on fractures near to or intersecting canister emplacement holes. The method can be applied during preliminary evaluation of candidate sites prior to any detailed drilling or underground excavation, utilizing lineament maps and published regression relations between surface rupture trace length and earthquake magnitude, rupture area and displacements. The calculated displacements can be applied to lineament traces which are assumed to be faults and may be the sites for future earthquakes. Next, a discrete fracture model is created for secondary faulting and jointing in the vicinity of the repository. These secondary fractures may displace due to the earthquake on the primary faults. The three-dimensional numerical model assumes linear elasticity and linear elastic fracture mechanics which provides a conservative displacement estimate, while still preserving realistic fracture patterns. Two series of numerical studies were undertaken to demonstrate how the methodology could be implemented and how results could be applied to questions regarding site selection and performance assessment. The first series illustrates how earthquake damage to a hypothetical repository for a specified location (Aespoe) could be estimated. A second series examined the displacements induced by earthquakes varying in magnitude from 6.0 to 8.2 as a function of how close the earthquake was in relation to the repository. 143 refs, 25 figs, 7 tabs

  2. Large magnitude earthquakes on the Awatere Fault, Marlborough

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mason, D.P.M.; Little, T.A.; Van Dissen, R.J.

    2006-01-01

    The Awatere Fault is a principal active strike-slip fault within the Marlborough fault system, and last ruptured in October 1848, in the M w ∼7.5 Marlborough earthquake. The coseismic slip distribution and maximum traceable length of this rupture are calculated from the magnitude and distribution of small, metre-scale geomorphic displacements attributable to this earthquake. These data suggest this event ruptured ∼110 km of the fault, with mean horizontal surface displacement of 5.3 ± 1.6m. Based on these parameters, the moment magnitude of this earthquake would be M w ∼7.4-7.7. Paeloseismic trenching investigations along the eastern section reveal evidence for at least eight, and possibly ten, surface-rupturing paleoearthquakes in the last 8600 years, including the 1848 rupture. The coseismic slip distribution and rupture length of the 1848 earthquake, in combination with the paleoearthquake age data, suggest the eastern section of the Awatere Fault ruptures in M w ∼7.5 earthquakes, with over 5 m of surface displacement, every 860-1080 years. (author). 21 refs., 10 figs., 7 tabs

  3. Localizing Submarine Earthquakes by Listening to the Water Reverberations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castillo, J.; Zhan, Z.; Wu, W.

    2017-12-01

    Mid-Ocean Ridge (MOR) earthquakes generally occur far from any land based station and are of moderate magnitude, making it complicated to detect and in most cases, locate accurately. This limits our understanding of how MOR normal and transform faults move and the manner in which they slip. Different from continental events, seismic records from earthquakes occurring beneath the ocean floor show complex reverberations caused by P-wave energy trapped in the water column that are highly dependent of the source location and the efficiency to which energy propagated to the near-source surface. These later arrivals are commonly considered to be only a nuisance as they might sometimes interfere with the primary arrivals. However, in this study, we take advantage of the wavefield's high sensitivity to small changes in the seafloor topography and the present-day availability of worldwide multi-beam bathymetry to relocate submarine earthquakes by modeling these water column reverberations in teleseismic signals. Using a three-dimensional hybrid method for modeling body wave arrivals, we demonstrate that an accurate hypocentral location of a submarine earthquake (<5 km) can be achieved if the structural complexities near the source region are appropriately accounted for. This presents a novel way of studying earthquake source properties and will serve as a means to explore the influence of physical fault structure on the seismic behavior of transform faults.

  4. Sediment gravity flows triggered by remotely generated earthquake waves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, H. Paul; Gomberg, Joan S.; Hautala, Susan L.; Salmi, Marie S.

    2017-06-01

    Recent great earthquakes and tsunamis around the world have heightened awareness of the inevitability of similar events occurring within the Cascadia Subduction Zone of the Pacific Northwest. We analyzed seafloor temperature, pressure, and seismic signals, and video stills of sediment-enveloped instruments recorded during the 2011-2015 Cascadia Initiative experiment, and seafloor morphology. Our results led us to suggest that thick accretionary prism sediments amplified and extended seismic wave durations from the 11 April 2012 Mw8.6 Indian Ocean earthquake, located more than 13,500 km away. These waves triggered a sequence of small slope failures on the Cascadia margin that led to sediment gravity flows culminating in turbidity currents. Previous studies have related the triggering of sediment-laden gravity flows and turbidite deposition to local earthquakes, but this is the first study in which the originating seismic event is extremely distant (> 10,000 km). The possibility of remotely triggered slope failures that generate sediment-laden gravity flows should be considered in inferences of recurrence intervals of past great Cascadia earthquakes from turbidite sequences. Future similar studies may provide new understanding of submarine slope failures and turbidity currents and the hazards they pose to seafloor infrastructure and tsunami generation in regions both with and without local earthquakes.

  5. Antarctic icequakes triggered by the 2010 Maule earthquake in Chile

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peng, Zhigang; Walter, Jacob I.; Aster, Richard C.; Nyblade, Andrew; Wiens, Douglas A.; Anandakrishnan, Sridhar

    2014-09-01

    Seismic waves from distant, large earthquakes can almost instantaneously trigger shallow micro-earthquakes and deep tectonic tremor as they pass through Earth's crust. Such remotely triggered seismic activity mostly occurs in tectonically active regions. Triggered seismicity is generally considered to reflect shear failure on critically stressed fault planes and is thought to be driven by dynamic stress perturbations from both Love and Rayleigh types of surface seismic wave. Here we analyse seismic data from Antarctica in the six hours leading up to and following the 2010 Mw 8.8 Maule earthquake in Chile. We identify many high-frequency seismic signals during the passage of the Rayleigh waves generated by the Maule earthquake, and interpret them as small icequakes triggered by the Rayleigh waves. The source locations of these triggered icequakes are difficult to determine owing to sparse seismic network coverage, but the triggered events generate surface waves, so are probably formed by near-surface sources. Our observations are consistent with tensile fracturing of near-surface ice or other brittle fracture events caused by changes in volumetric strain as the high-amplitude Rayleigh waves passed through. We conclude that cryospheric systems can be sensitive to large distant earthquakes.

  6. The failure of earthquake failure models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gomberg, J.

    2001-01-01

    In this study I show that simple heuristic models and numerical calculations suggest that an entire class of commonly invoked models of earthquake failure processes cannot explain triggering of seismicity by transient or "dynamic" stress changes, such as stress changes associated with passing seismic waves. The models of this class have the common feature that the physical property characterizing failure increases at an accelerating rate when a fault is loaded (stressed) at a constant rate. Examples include models that invoke rate state friction or subcritical crack growth, in which the properties characterizing failure are slip or crack length, respectively. Failure occurs when the rate at which these grow accelerates to values exceeding some critical threshold. These accelerating failure models do not predict the finite durations of dynamically triggered earthquake sequences (e.g., at aftershock or remote distances). Some of the failure models belonging to this class have been used to explain static stress triggering of aftershocks. This may imply that the physical processes underlying dynamic triggering differs or that currently applied models of static triggering require modification. If the former is the case, we might appeal to physical mechanisms relying on oscillatory deformations such as compaction of saturated fault gouge leading to pore pressure increase, or cyclic fatigue. However, if dynamic and static triggering mechanisms differ, one still needs to ask why static triggering models that neglect these dynamic mechanisms appear to explain many observations. If the static and dynamic triggering mechanisms are the same, perhaps assumptions about accelerating failure and/or that triggering advances the failure times of a population of inevitable earthquakes are incorrect.

  7. Composite Earthquake Catalog of the Yellow Sea for Seismic Hazard Studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kang, S. Y.; Kim, K. H.; LI, Z.; Hao, T.

    2017-12-01

    The Yellow Sea (a.k.a West Sea in Korea) is an epicontinental and semi-closed sea located between Korea and China. Recent earthquakes in the Yellow Sea including, but not limited to, the Seogyuckryulbi-do (1 April 2014, magnitude 5.1), Heuksan-do (21 April 2013, magnitude 4.9), Baekryung-do (18 May 2013, magnitude 4.9) earthquakes, and the earthquake swarm in the Boryung offshore region in 2013, remind us of the seismic hazards affecting east Asia. This series of earthquakes in the Yellow Sea raised numerous questions. Unfortunately, both governments have trouble in monitoring seismicity in the Yellow Sea because earthquakes occur beyond their seismic networks. For example, the epicenters of the magnitude 5.1 earthquake in the Seogyuckryulbi-do region in 2014 reported by the Korea Meteorological Administration and China Earthquake Administration differed by approximately 20 km. This illustrates the difficulty with seismic monitoring and locating earthquakes in the region, despite the huge effort made by both governments. Joint effort is required not only to overcome the limits posed by political boundaries and geographical location but also to study seismicity and the underground structures responsible. Although the well-established and developing seismic networks in Korea and China have provided unprecedented amount and quality of seismic data, high quality catalog is limited to the recent 10s of years, which is far from major earthquake cycle. It is also noticed the earthquake catalog from either country is biased to its own and cannot provide complete picture of seismicity in the Yellow Sea. In order to understand seismic hazard and tectonics in the Yellow Sea, a composite earthquake catalog has been developed. We gathered earthquake information during last 5,000 years from various sources. There are good reasons to believe that some listings account for same earthquake, but in different source parameters. We established criteria in order to provide consistent

  8. Centrality in earthquake multiplex networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lotfi, Nastaran; Darooneh, Amir Hossein; Rodrigues, Francisco A.

    2018-06-01

    Seismic time series has been mapped as a complex network, where a geographical region is divided into square cells that represent the nodes and connections are defined according to the sequence of earthquakes. In this paper, we map a seismic time series to a temporal network, described by a multiplex network, and characterize the evolution of the network structure in terms of the eigenvector centrality measure. We generalize previous works that considered the single layer representation of earthquake networks. Our results suggest that the multiplex representation captures better earthquake activity than methods based on single layer networks. We also verify that the regions with highest seismological activities in Iran and California can be identified from the network centrality analysis. The temporal modeling of seismic data provided here may open new possibilities for a better comprehension of the physics of earthquakes.

  9. Tidal triggering of earthquakes suggests poroelastic behavior on the San Andreas Fault

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Delorey, Andrew A.; Elst, Nicholas J. van der; Johnson, Paul Allan

    2016-01-01

    Tidal triggering of earthquakes is hypothesized to provide quantitative information regarding the fault's stress state, poroelastic properties, and may be significant for our understanding of seismic hazard. To date, studies of regional or global earthquake catalogs have had only modest successes in identifying tidal triggering. We posit that the smallest events that may provide additional evidence of triggering go unidentified and thus we developed a technique to improve the identification of very small magnitude events. We identify events applying a method known as inter-station seismic coherence where we prioritize detection and discrimination over characterization. Here we show tidal triggering of earthquakes on the San Andreas Fault. We find the complex interaction of semi-diurnal and fortnightly tidal periods exposes both stress threshold and critical state behavior. Lastly, our findings reveal earthquake nucleation processes and pore pressure conditions – properties of faults that are difficult to measure, yet extremely important for characterizing earthquake physics and seismic hazards.

  10. Impacts of the 2010 Haitian earthquake in the diaspora: findings from Little Haiti, Miami, FL.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kobetz, Erin; Menard, Janelle; Kish, Jonathan; Bishop, Ian; Hazan, Gabrielle; Nicolas, Guerda

    2013-04-01

    In January 2010, a massive earthquake struck Haiti resulting in unprecedented damage. Little attention, however, has focused on the earthquake's mental health impact in the Haitian diaspora community. As part of an established community-based participatory research initiative in Little Haiti, the predominately Haitian neighborhood in Miami, FL, USA, community health workers conducted surveys with neighborhood residents about earthquake-related losses, coping strategies, and depressive/traumatic symptomology. Findings reveal the earthquake strongly impacted the diaspora community and highlights prominent coping strategies. Following the earthquake, only a small percentage of participants self-reported engaging in any negative health behaviors. Instead, a majority relied on their social networks for support. This study contributes to the discourse on designing culturally-responsive mental health initiatives for the Haitian diaspora and the ability of existing community-academic partnerships to rapidly adapt to community needs.

  11. Tidal triggering of earthquakes suggests poroelastic behavior on the San Andreas Fault

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delorey, Andrew; Van Der Elst, Nicholas; Johnson, Paul

    2017-01-01

    Tidal triggering of earthquakes is hypothesized to provide quantitative information regarding the fault's stress state, poroelastic properties, and may be significant for our understanding of seismic hazard. To date, studies of regional or global earthquake catalogs have had only modest successes in identifying tidal triggering. We posit that the smallest events that may provide additional evidence of triggering go unidentified and thus we developed a technique to improve the identification of very small magnitude events. We identify events applying a method known as inter-station seismic coherence where we prioritize detection and discrimination over characterization. Here we show tidal triggering of earthquakes on the San Andreas Fault. We find the complex interaction of semi-diurnal and fortnightly tidal periods exposes both stress threshold and critical state behavior. Our findings reveal earthquake nucleation processes and pore pressure conditions – properties of faults that are difficult to measure, yet extremely important for characterizing earthquake physics and seismic hazards.

  12. Periodic, chaotic, and doubled earthquake recurrence intervals on the deep San Andreas fault.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shelly, David R

    2010-06-11

    Earthquake recurrence histories may provide clues to the timing of future events, but long intervals between large events obscure full recurrence variability. In contrast, small earthquakes occur frequently, and recurrence intervals are quantifiable on a much shorter time scale. In this work, I examine an 8.5-year sequence of more than 900 recurring low-frequency earthquake bursts composing tremor beneath the San Andreas fault near Parkfield, California. These events exhibit tightly clustered recurrence intervals that, at times, oscillate between approximately 3 and approximately 6 days, but the patterns sometimes change abruptly. Although the environments of large and low-frequency earthquakes are different, these observations suggest that similar complexity might underlie sequences of large earthquakes.

  13. Periodic, chaotic, and doubled earthquake recurrence intervals on the deep San Andreas Fault

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shelly, David R.

    2010-01-01

    Earthquake recurrence histories may provide clues to the timing of future events, but long intervals between large events obscure full recurrence variability. In contrast, small earthquakes occur frequently, and recurrence intervals are quantifiable on a much shorter time scale. In this work, I examine an 8.5-year sequence of more than 900 recurring low-frequency earthquake bursts composing tremor beneath the San Andreas fault near Parkfield, California. These events exhibit tightly clustered recurrence intervals that, at times, oscillate between ~3 and ~6 days, but the patterns sometimes change abruptly. Although the environments of large and low-frequency earthquakes are different, these observations suggest that similar complexity might underlie sequences of large earthquakes.

  14. The GIS and analysis of earthquake damage distribution of the 1303 Hongtong M=8 earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Meng-Tan; Jin, Xue-Shen; An, Wei-Ping; Lü, Xiao-Jian

    2004-07-01

    The geography information system of the 1303 Hongton M=8 earthquake has been established. Using the spatial analysis function of GIS, the spatial distribution characteristics of damage and isoseismal of the earthquake are studies. By comparing with the standard earthquake intensity attenuation relationship, the abnormal damage distribution of the earthquake is found, so the relationship of the abnormal distribution with tectonics, site condition and basin are analyzed. In this paper, the influence on the ground motion generated by earthquake source and the underground structures near source also are studied. The influence on seismic zonation, anti-earthquake design, earthquake prediction and earthquake emergency responding produced by the abnormal density distribution are discussed.

  15. Earthquake data base for Romania

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rizescu, M.; Ghica, D.; Grecu, B.; Popa, M.; Borcia, I. S.

    2002-01-01

    A new earthquake database for Romania is being constructed, comprising complete earthquake information and being up-to-date, user-friendly and rapidly accessible. One main component of the database consists from the catalog of earthquakes occurred in Romania since 984 up to present. The catalog contains information related to locations and other source parameters, when available, and links to waveforms of important earthquakes. The other very important component is the 'strong motion database', developed for strong intermediate-depth Vrancea earthquakes where instrumental data were recorded. Different parameters to characterize strong motion properties as: effective peak acceleration, effective peak velocity, corner periods T c and T d , global response spectrum based intensities were computed and recorded into this database. Also, information on the recording seismic stations as: maps giving their positioning, photographs of the instruments and site conditions ('free-field or on buildings) are included. By the huge volume and quality of gathered data, also by its friendly user interface, the Romania earthquake data base provides a very useful tool for geosciences and civil engineering in their effort towards reducing seismic risk in Romania. (authors)

  16. Mapping Tectonic Stress Using Earthquakes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arnold, Richard; Townend, John; Vignaux, Tony

    2005-01-01

    An earthquakes occurs when the forces acting on a fault overcome its intrinsic strength and cause it to slip abruptly. Understanding more specifically why earthquakes occur at particular locations and times is complicated because in many cases we do not know what these forces actually are, or indeed what processes ultimately trigger slip. The goal of this study is to develop, test, and implement a Bayesian method of reliably determining tectonic stresses using the most abundant stress gauges available - earthquakes themselves.Existing algorithms produce reasonable estimates of the principal stress directions, but yield unreliable error bounds as a consequence of the generally weak constraint on stress imposed by any single earthquake, observational errors, and an unavoidable ambiguity between the fault normal and the slip vector.A statistical treatment of the problem can take into account observational errors, combine data from multiple earthquakes in a consistent manner, and provide realistic error bounds on the estimated principal stress directions.We have developed a realistic physical framework for modelling multiple earthquakes and show how the strong physical and geometrical constraints present in this problem allow inference to be made about the orientation of the principal axes of stress in the earth's crust

  17. Building with Earthquakes in Mind

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mangieri, Nicholas

    2016-04-01

    Earthquakes are some of the most elusive and destructive disasters humans interact with on this planet. Engineering structures to withstand earthquake shaking is critical to ensure minimal loss of life and property. However, the majority of buildings today in non-traditional earthquake prone areas are not built to withstand this devastating force. Understanding basic earthquake engineering principles and the effect of limited resources helps students grasp the challenge that lies ahead. The solution can be found in retrofitting existing buildings with proper reinforcements and designs to deal with this deadly disaster. The students were challenged in this project to construct a basic structure, using limited resources, that could withstand a simulated tremor through the use of an earthquake shake table. Groups of students had to work together to creatively manage their resources and ideas to design the most feasible and realistic type of building. This activity provided a wealth of opportunities for the students to learn more about a type of disaster they do not experience in this part of the country. Due to the fact that most buildings in New York City were not designed to withstand earthquake shaking, the students were able to gain an appreciation for how difficult it would be to prepare every structure in the city for this type of event.

  18. Earthquake damage to underground facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pratt, H.R.; Hustrulid, W.A.; Stephenson, D.E.

    1978-11-01

    The potential seismic risk for an underground nuclear waste repository will be one of the considerations in evaluating its ultimate location. However, the risk to subsurface facilities cannot be judged by applying intensity ratings derived from the surface effects of an earthquake. A literature review and analysis were performed to document the damage and non-damage due to earthquakes to underground facilities. Damage from earthquakes to tunnels, s, and wells and damage (rock bursts) from mining operations were investigated. Damage from documented nuclear events was also included in the study where applicable. There are very few data on damage in the subsurface due to earthquakes. This fact itself attests to the lessened effect of earthquakes in the subsurface because mines exist in areas where strong earthquakes have done extensive surface damage. More damage is reported in shallow tunnels near the surface than in deep mines. In mines and tunnels, large displacements occur primarily along pre-existing faults and fractures or at the surface entrance to these facilities.Data indicate vertical structures such as wells and shafts are less susceptible to damage than surface facilities. More analysis is required before seismic criteria can be formulated for the siting of a nuclear waste repository

  19. Global earthquake fatalities and population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holzer, Thomas L.; Savage, James C.

    2013-01-01

    Modern global earthquake fatalities can be separated into two components: (1) fatalities from an approximately constant annual background rate that is independent of world population growth and (2) fatalities caused by earthquakes with large human death tolls, the frequency of which is dependent on world population. Earthquakes with death tolls greater than 100,000 (and 50,000) have increased with world population and obey a nonstationary Poisson distribution with rate proportional to population. We predict that the number of earthquakes with death tolls greater than 100,000 (50,000) will increase in the 21st century to 8.7±3.3 (20.5±4.3) from 4 (7) observed in the 20th century if world population reaches 10.1 billion in 2100. Combining fatalities caused by the background rate with fatalities caused by catastrophic earthquakes (>100,000 fatalities) indicates global fatalities in the 21st century will be 2.57±0.64 million if the average post-1900 death toll for catastrophic earthquakes (193,000) is assumed.

  20. Interactive visualization to advance earthquake simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kellogg, L.H.; Bawden, G.W.; Bernardin, T.; Billen, M.; Cowgill, E.; Hamann, B.; Jadamec, M.; Kreylos, O.; Staadt, O.; Sumner, D.

    2008-01-01

    The geological sciences are challenged to manage and interpret increasing volumes of data as observations and simulations increase in size and complexity. For example, simulations of earthquake-related processes typically generate complex, time-varying data sets in two or more dimensions. To facilitate interpretation and analysis of these data sets, evaluate the underlying models, and to drive future calculations, we have developed methods of interactive visualization with a special focus on using immersive virtual reality (VR) environments to interact with models of Earth's surface and interior. Virtual mapping tools allow virtual "field studies" in inaccessible regions. Interactive tools allow us to manipulate shapes in order to construct models of geological features for geodynamic models, while feature extraction tools support quantitative measurement of structures that emerge from numerical simulation or field observations, thereby enabling us to improve our interpretation of the dynamical processes that drive earthquakes. VR has traditionally been used primarily as a presentation tool, albeit with active navigation through data. Reaping the full intellectual benefits of immersive VR as a tool for scientific analysis requires building on the method's strengths, that is, using both 3D perception and interaction with observed or simulated data. This approach also takes advantage of the specialized skills of geological scientists who are trained to interpret, the often limited, geological and geophysical data available from field observations. ?? Birkhaueser 2008.

  1. USGS Tweet Earthquake Dispatch (@USGSted): Using Twitter for Earthquake Detection and Characterization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, S. B.; Bouchard, B.; Bowden, D. C.; Guy, M.; Earle, P.

    2012-12-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is investigating how online social networking services like Twitter—a microblogging service for sending and reading public text-based messages of up to 140 characters—can augment USGS earthquake response products and the delivery of hazard information. The USGS Tweet Earthquake Dispatch (TED) system is using Twitter not only to broadcast seismically-verified earthquake alerts via the @USGSted and @USGSbigquakes Twitter accounts, but also to rapidly detect widely felt seismic events through a real-time detection system. The detector algorithm scans for significant increases in tweets containing the word "earthquake" or its equivalent in other languages and sends internal alerts with the detection time, tweet text, and the location of the city where most of the tweets originated. It has been running in real-time for 7 months and finds, on average, two or three felt events per day with a false detection rate of less than 10%. The detections have reasonable coverage of populated areas globally. The number of detections is small compared to the number of earthquakes detected seismically, and only a rough location and qualitative assessment of shaking can be determined based on Tweet data alone. However, the Twitter detections are generally caused by widely felt events that are of more immediate interest than those with no human impact. The main benefit of the tweet-based detections is speed, with most detections occurring between 19 seconds and 2 minutes from the origin time. This is considerably faster than seismic detections in poorly instrumented regions of the world. Going beyond the initial detection, the USGS is developing data mining techniques to continuously archive and analyze relevant tweets for additional details about the detected events. The information generated about an event is displayed on a web-based map designed using HTML5 for the mobile environment, which can be valuable when the user is not able to access a

  2. Characterization of tsunamigenic earthquake in Java region based on seismic wave calculation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pribadi, Sugeng; Afnimar,; Puspito, Nanang T.; Ibrahim, Gunawan

    2014-01-01

    This study is to characterize the source mechanism of tsunamigenic earthquake based on seismic wave calculation. The source parameter used are the ratio (Θ) between the radiated seismic energy (E) and seismic moment (M o ), moment magnitude (M W ), rupture duration (T o ) and focal mechanism. These determine the types of tsunamigenic earthquake and tsunami earthquake. We calculate the formula using the teleseismic wave signal processing with the initial phase of P wave with bandpass filter 0.001 Hz to 5 Hz. The amount of station is 84 broadband seismometer with far distance of 30° to 90°. The 2 June 1994 Banyuwangi earthquake with M W =7.8 and the 17 July 2006 Pangandaran earthquake with M W =7.7 include the criteria as a tsunami earthquake which distributed about ratio Θ=−6.1, long rupture duration To>100 s and high tsunami H>7 m. The 2 September 2009 Tasikmalaya earthquake with M W =7.2, Θ=−5.1 and To=27 s which characterized as a small tsunamigenic earthquake

  3. Characterization of tsunamigenic earthquake in Java region based on seismic wave calculation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pribadi, Sugeng, E-mail: sugengpribadimsc@gmail.com [Badan Meteorologi Klimatologi Geofisika, Jl Angkasa I No. 2 Jakarta (Indonesia); Afnimar,; Puspito, Nanang T.; Ibrahim, Gunawan [Institut Teknologi Bandung, Jl. Ganesha 10, Bandung 40132 (Indonesia)

    2014-03-24

    This study is to characterize the source mechanism of tsunamigenic earthquake based on seismic wave calculation. The source parameter used are the ratio (Θ) between the radiated seismic energy (E) and seismic moment (M{sub o}), moment magnitude (M{sub W}), rupture duration (T{sub o}) and focal mechanism. These determine the types of tsunamigenic earthquake and tsunami earthquake. We calculate the formula using the teleseismic wave signal processing with the initial phase of P wave with bandpass filter 0.001 Hz to 5 Hz. The amount of station is 84 broadband seismometer with far distance of 30° to 90°. The 2 June 1994 Banyuwangi earthquake with M{sub W}=7.8 and the 17 July 2006 Pangandaran earthquake with M{sub W}=7.7 include the criteria as a tsunami earthquake which distributed about ratio Θ=−6.1, long rupture duration To>100 s and high tsunami H>7 m. The 2 September 2009 Tasikmalaya earthquake with M{sub W}=7.2, Θ=−5.1 and To=27 s which characterized as a small tsunamigenic earthquake.

  4. 100 years after the Marsica earthquake: contribute of outreach activities

    Science.gov (United States)

    D'Addezio, Giuliana; Giordani, Azzurra; Valle, Veronica; Riposati, Daniela

    2015-04-01

    children were sent to Rome in hospitals and in other suitable structures. Many stories of poor orphans are known but we decided to outlines stories that besides the dramma had an happy ending. To understand the hugeness of the tragedy, we may consider that the number of towns and villages completely destroyed by the earthquake was more than fifty. The reconstruction was very difficult and slow also because of the war, and involved the relocation of settlements in different places. The first shelters to be reconstructed were those for survivors: very small shacks built with anti seismic criteria. They are still on the territory, to be a symbol of the reconstruction and a remined evidence of the earthquake.

  5. Numerical methods

    CERN Document Server

    Dahlquist, Germund

    1974-01-01

    ""Substantial, detailed and rigorous . . . readers for whom the book is intended are admirably served."" - MathSciNet (Mathematical Reviews on the Web), American Mathematical Society.Practical text strikes fine balance between students' requirements for theoretical treatment and needs of practitioners, with best methods for large- and small-scale computing. Prerequisites are minimal (calculus, linear algebra, and preferably some acquaintance with computer programming). Text includes many worked examples, problems, and an extensive bibliography.

  6. Evidence for Ancient Mesoamerican Earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kovach, R. L.; Garcia, B.

    2001-12-01

    Evidence for past earthquake damage at Mesoamerican ruins is often overlooked because of the invasive effects of tropical vegetation and is usually not considered as a casual factor when restoration and reconstruction of many archaeological sites are undertaken. Yet the proximity of many ruins to zones of seismic activity would argue otherwise. Clues as to the types of damage which should be soughtwere offered in September 1999 when the M = 7.5 Oaxaca earthquake struck the ruins of Monte Alban, Mexico, where archaeological renovations were underway. More than 20 structures were damaged, 5 of them seriously. Damage features noted were walls out of plumb, fractures in walls, floors, basal platforms and tableros, toppling of columns, and deformation, settling and tumbling of walls. A Modified Mercalli Intensity of VII (ground accelerations 18-34 %b) occurred at the site. Within the diffuse landward extension of the Caribbean plate boundary zone M = 7+ earthquakes occur with repeat times of hundreds of years arguing that many Maya sites were subjected to earthquakes. Damage to re-erected and reinforced stelae, walls, and buildings were witnessed at Quirigua, Guatemala, during an expedition underway when then 1976 M = 7.5 Guatemala earthquake on the Motagua fault struck. Excavations also revealed evidence (domestic pttery vessels and skeleton of a child crushed under fallen walls) of an ancient earthquake occurring about the teim of the demise and abandonment of Quirigua in the late 9th century. Striking evidence for sudden earthquake building collapse at the end of the Mayan Classic Period ~A.D. 889 was found at Benque Viejo (Xunantunich), Belize, located 210 north of Quirigua. It is argued that a M = 7.5 to 7.9 earthquake at the end of the Maya Classic period centered in the vicinity of the Chixoy-Polochic and Motagua fault zones cound have produced the contemporaneous earthquake damage to the above sites. As a consequences this earthquake may have accelerated the

  7. Regional moment: Magnitude relations for earthquakes and explosions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Patton, H.J.; Walter, W.R. (Lawrence Livermore National Lab., CA (United States))

    1993-02-19

    The authors present M[sub o]:m[sub b] relations using m[sub b](P[sub n]) and m[sub b](L[sub g]) for earthquakes and explosions occurring in tectonic and stable areas. The observations for m[sub b](P[sub n]) range from about 3 to 6 and show excellent separation between earthquakes and explosions on M[sub o]:m[sub b] plots, independent of the magnitude. The scatter in M[sub o]:M[sub b] observations for NTS explosions is small compared to the earthquake data. The M[sub o]:m[sub b](L[sub g]) data for Soviet explosions overlay the observations for US explosions. These results, and the small scatter for NTS explosions, suggest weak dependence of M[sub o]:m[sub b] relations on emplacement media. A simple theoretical model is developed which matches all these observations. The model uses scaling similarity and conservation of energy to provide a physical link between seismic moment and a broadband seismic magnitude. Three factors, radiation pattern, material property, and apparent stress, contribute to the separation between earthquakes and explosions. This theoretical separation is independent of broadband magnitude. For US explosions in different media, the material property and apparent stress contributions are shown to compensate for one another, supporting the observations that M[sub o]:M[sub b] is nearly independent of source geology. 19 refs., 2 figs., 1 tab.

  8. Comparison of two large earthquakes: the 2008 Sichuan Earthquake and the 2011 East Japan Earthquake.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Otani, Yuki; Ando, Takayuki; Atobe, Kaori; Haiden, Akina; Kao, Sheng-Yuan; Saito, Kohei; Shimanuki, Marie; Yoshimoto, Norifumi; Fukunaga, Koichi

    2012-01-01

    Between August 15th and 19th, 2011, eight 5th-year medical students from the Keio University School of Medicine had the opportunity to visit the Peking University School of Medicine and hold a discussion session titled "What is the most effective way to educate people for survival in an acute disaster situation (before the mental health care stage)?" During the session, we discussed the following six points: basic information regarding the Sichuan Earthquake and the East Japan Earthquake, differences in preparedness for earthquakes, government actions, acceptance of medical rescue teams, earthquake-induced secondary effects, and media restrictions. Although comparison of the two earthquakes was not simple, we concluded that three major points should be emphasized to facilitate the most effective course of disaster planning and action. First, all relevant agencies should formulate emergency plans and should supply information regarding the emergency to the general public and health professionals on a normal basis. Second, each citizen should be educated and trained in how to minimize the risks from earthquake-induced secondary effects. Finally, the central government should establish a single headquarters responsible for command, control, and coordination during a natural disaster emergency and should centralize all powers in this single authority. We hope this discussion may be of some use in future natural disasters in China, Japan, and worldwide.

  9. Earthquake related displacement fields near underground facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pratt, H.R.; Zandt, G.; Bouchon, M.

    1979-04-01

    Relative displacements of rock masses are evaluated in terms of geological evidence, seismological evidence, data from simulation experiments, and analytical predictive models. Numerical models have been developed to determine displacement fields as a function of depth, distance, and azimuth from an earthquake source. Computer calculations for several types of faults indicate that displacements decrease rapidly with distance from the fault, but that displacements can either increase or decrease as a function of depth depending on the type and geometry of the fault. For long shallow vertical strike-slip faults the displacement decreases markedly with depth. For square strike slip faults and for dip slip faults displacement does not decrease as markedly with depth. Geologic structure, material properties, and depth affect the seismic source spectrum. Amplification of the high frequencies of shear waves is larger by a factor of about 2 for layered geologic models than for an elastic half space

  10. Quantifying variability in earthquake rupture models using multidimensional scaling: application to the 2011 Tohoku earthquake

    KAUST Repository

    Razafindrakoto, Hoby

    2015-04-22

    Finite-fault earthquake source inversion is an ill-posed inverse problem leading to non-unique solutions. In addition, various fault parametrizations and input data may have been used by different researchers for the same earthquake. Such variability leads to large intra-event variability in the inferred rupture models. One way to understand this problem is to develop robust metrics to quantify model variability. We propose a Multi Dimensional Scaling (MDS) approach to compare rupture models quantitatively. We consider normalized squared and grey-scale metrics that reflect the variability in the location, intensity and geometry of the source parameters. We test the approach on two-dimensional random fields generated using a von Kármán autocorrelation function and varying its spectral parameters. The spread of points in the MDS solution indicates different levels of model variability. We observe that the normalized squared metric is insensitive to variability of spectral parameters, whereas the grey-scale metric is sensitive to small-scale changes in geometry. From this benchmark, we formulate a similarity scale to rank the rupture models. As case studies, we examine inverted models from the Source Inversion Validation (SIV) exercise and published models of the 2011 Mw 9.0 Tohoku earthquake, allowing us to test our approach for a case with a known reference model and one with an unknown true solution. The normalized squared and grey-scale metrics are respectively sensitive to the overall intensity and the extension of the three classes of slip (very large, large, and low). Additionally, we observe that a three-dimensional MDS configuration is preferable for models with large variability. We also find that the models for the Tohoku earthquake derived from tsunami data and their corresponding predictions cluster with a systematic deviation from other models. We demonstrate the stability of the MDS point-cloud using a number of realizations and jackknife tests, for

  11. Quantifying variability in earthquake rupture models using multidimensional scaling: application to the 2011 Tohoku earthquake

    KAUST Repository

    Razafindrakoto, Hoby; Mai, Paul Martin; Genton, Marc G.; Zhang, Ling; Thingbaijam, Kiran Kumar

    2015-01-01

    Finite-fault earthquake source inversion is an ill-posed inverse problem leading to non-unique solutions. In addition, various fault parametrizations and input data may have been used by different researchers for the same earthquake. Such variability leads to large intra-event variability in the inferred rupture models. One way to understand this problem is to develop robust metrics to quantify model variability. We propose a Multi Dimensional Scaling (MDS) approach to compare rupture models quantitatively. We consider normalized squared and grey-scale metrics that reflect the variability in the location, intensity and geometry of the source parameters. We test the approach on two-dimensional random fields generated using a von Kármán autocorrelation function and varying its spectral parameters. The spread of points in the MDS solution indicates different levels of model variability. We observe that the normalized squared metric is insensitive to variability of spectral parameters, whereas the grey-scale metric is sensitive to small-scale changes in geometry. From this benchmark, we formulate a similarity scale to rank the rupture models. As case studies, we examine inverted models from the Source Inversion Validation (SIV) exercise and published models of the 2011 Mw 9.0 Tohoku earthquake, allowing us to test our approach for a case with a known reference model and one with an unknown true solution. The normalized squared and grey-scale metrics are respectively sensitive to the overall intensity and the extension of the three classes of slip (very large, large, and low). Additionally, we observe that a three-dimensional MDS configuration is preferable for models with large variability. We also find that the models for the Tohoku earthquake derived from tsunami data and their corresponding predictions cluster with a systematic deviation from other models. We demonstrate the stability of the MDS point-cloud using a number of realizations and jackknife tests, for

  12. Do earthquakes exhibit self-organized criticality?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yang Xiaosong; Ma Jin; Du Shuming

    2004-01-01

    If earthquakes are phenomena of self-organized criticality (SOC), statistical characteristics of the earthquake time series should be invariant after the sequence of events in an earthquake catalog are randomly rearranged. In this Letter we argue that earthquakes are unlikely phenomena of SOC because our analysis of the Southern California Earthquake Catalog shows that the first-return-time probability P M (T) is apparently changed after the time series is rearranged. This suggests that the SOC theory should not be used to oppose the efforts of earthquake prediction

  13. Numerical analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Jacques, Ian

    1987-01-01

    This book is primarily intended for undergraduates in mathematics, the physical sciences and engineering. It introduces students to most of the techniques forming the core component of courses in numerical analysis. The text is divided into eight chapters which are largely self-contained. However, with a subject as intricately woven as mathematics, there is inevitably some interdependence between them. The level of difficulty varies and, although emphasis is firmly placed on the methods themselves rather than their analysis, we have not hesitated to include theoretical material when we consider it to be sufficiently interesting. However, it should be possible to omit those parts that do seem daunting while still being able to follow the worked examples and to tackle the exercises accompanying each section. Familiarity with the basic results of analysis and linear algebra is assumed since these are normally taught in first courses on mathematical methods. For reference purposes a list of theorems used in the t...

  14. Earthquake, GIS and multimedia. The 1883 Casamicciola earthquake

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Rebuffat

    1995-06-01

    Full Text Available A series of multimedia monographs concerning the main seismic events that have affected the Italian territory are in the process of being produced for the Documental Integrated Multimedia Project (DIMP started by the Italian National Seismic Survey (NSS. The purpose of the project is to reconstruct the historical record of earthquakes and promote an earthquake public education. Producing the monographs. developed in ARC INFO and working in UNIX. involved designing a special filing and management methodology to integrate heterogeneous information (images, papers, cartographies, etc.. This paper describes the possibilities of a GIS (Geographic Information System in the filing and management of documental information. As an example we present the first monograph on the 1883 Casamicciola earthquake. on the island of Ischia (Campania, Italy. This earthquake is particularly interesting for the following reasons: I historical-cultural context (first destructive seismic event after the unification of Italy; 2 its features (volcanic earthquake; 3 the socioeconomic consequences caused at such an important seaside resort.

  15. A three-component system incorporating Ppd-D1, copy number variation at Ppd-B1, and numerous small-effect quantitative trait loci facilitates adaptation of heading time in winter wheat cultivars of worldwide origin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Würschum, Tobias; Langer, Simon M; Longin, C Friedrich H; Tucker, Matthew R; Leiser, Willmar L

    2018-06-01

    The broad adaptability of heading time has contributed to the global success of wheat in a diverse array of climatic conditions. Here, we investigated the genetic architecture underlying heading time in a large panel of 1,110 winter wheat cultivars of worldwide origin. Genome-wide association mapping, in combination with the analysis of major phenology loci, revealed a three-component system that facilitates the adaptation of heading time in winter wheat. The photoperiod sensitivity locus Ppd-D1 was found to account for almost half of the genotypic variance in this panel and can advance or delay heading by many days. In addition, copy number variation at Ppd-B1 was the second most important source of variation in heading, explaining 8.3% of the genotypic variance. Results from association mapping and genomic prediction indicated that the remaining variation is attributed to numerous small-effect quantitative trait loci that facilitate fine-tuning of heading to the local climatic conditions. Collectively, our results underpin the importance of the two Ppd-1 loci for the adaptation of heading time in winter wheat and illustrate how the three components have been exploited for wheat breeding globally. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  16. Variations of gravity before and after the Haicheng earthquake, 1975 and the Tangshan earthquake, 1976

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chen, Y.; Gu, H.; Lu, Z.

    1980-02-01

    Based on results of repeated leveling work done in these regions, the estimated amount of gravity change caused by the change of elevation of the ground surface is far too small to account for the observed value. Therefore it has been speculated that some big earthquakes might be associated with some sort of mass migration under the ground, within the crust or in the upper mantle. This migration would cause a large part of the gravity variation observed. Researchers have made a theoretical analysis of this effect and attempted to get some estimate of the rate of this mass migration, even though the physics of it is not clear.

  17. A rapid stability assessment of China's IGS sites after the Ms7. 0 Lushan earthquake

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Meng Jie

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available A rapid and accurate assessment of the stability of surveying and mapping reference points is important for post – disaster rescue, disaster relief and reconstruction activities. Using Precise Point Positioning (PPP technology, a rapid assessment of the stability of the IGS sites in China was performed after the Ms 7. 0 Lushan earthquake using rapid precise ephemeris and rapid precise satellite clock products. The results show that the earthquake had a very small impact and did not cause significant permanent deformation at the IGS sites. Most of the sites were unaffected and remained stable after the earthquake.

  18. Disaster mental health service at Fukushima after 2011 Tohoku earthquake

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Furuno, Taku

    2013-01-01

    The 2011 Tohoku earthquake was the most powerful earthquake ever to have hit Japan, which triggered the devastating tsunami sweeping through the cities, and caused the nuclear crisis in Fukushima. Due to the disaster, numerous people in Fukushima had to be in emergency evacuation, which also must have influenced people's mental states. After the earthquake, department of psychiatry, Yokohama City University School of Medicine, organized the disaster mental health service teams, and participated in psychological aid at Fukushima prefecture during March, May and June 2011. Our teams visited the shelters, schools and healthcare center, to evaluate psychological condition of the evacuees, and provide counseling to the people who had psychological problems. Many people at the disaster site who have prolonged psychological symptoms, also had some problems related to the social situations. Therefore, managing social support of evacuees is equally an important role of the disaster mental health service team as caring acute symptoms of stress and helping damaged psychiatric service network. In addition, the earthquake made the people aware of importance of sharing information in the time of disaster, especially via internet. We should take this opportunity to think more about information exchange for medical support, such as collaboration of medical teams and provision of expert knowledge to sufferers. (author)

  19. The music of earthquakes and Earthquake Quartet #1

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michael, Andrew J.

    2013-01-01

    Earthquake Quartet #1, my composition for voice, trombone, cello, and seismograms, is the intersection of listening to earthquakes as a seismologist and performing music as a trombonist. Along the way, I realized there is a close relationship between what I do as a scientist and what I do as a musician. A musician controls the source of the sound and the path it travels through their instrument in order to make sound waves that we hear as music. An earthquake is the source of waves that travel along a path through the earth until reaching us as shaking. It is almost as if the earth is a musician and people, including seismologists, are metaphorically listening and trying to understand what the music means.

  20. Structure-specific selection of earthquake ground motions for the reliable design and assessment of structures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Katsanos, E. I.; Sextos, A. G.

    2018-01-01

    A decision support process is presented to accommodate selecting and scaling of earthquake motions as required for the time domain analysis of structures. Code-compatible suites of seismic motions are provided being, at the same time, prequalified through a multi-criterion approach to induce...... was subjected to numerous suites of motions that were highly ranked according to both the proposed approach (δsv–sc) and the conventional one (δconv), that is commonly used for earthquake records selection and scaling. The findings from numerous linear response history analyses reveal the superiority...

  1. Fluid flows due to earthquakes with reference to Yucca Mountain, Nevada

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Davies, J.B.

    1993-01-01

    Yucca Mountain geohydrology is dominated by a deep water table in volcanic tuffa beds which are cut by numerous faults. Certain zones in these tuffas and most of the fault apertures are filled with a fine-grained calcitic cement. Earthquakes have occured in this region with the most recent being of magnitude 5.6 and at a distance of about 20 km. Earthquakes in western U.S.A. have been observed to cause fluid flows through and out of the crust of the Earth. These flows are concentrated along the faults with normal faulting producing the largest flows. An earthquake produces rapid pressure changes at and below the ground surface, thereby forcing flows of gas, water, slurries and dissolved salts. In order to examine the properties of flows produced by earthquakes, we simulate the phenomena using computer-based modeling. We investigate the effects of adults and high permeability zones on the pattern of flows induced by the earthquake. We demonstrate that faults act as conduits to the surface and that the higher the permeability of a zone, the more the flows will concentrate there. Numerical estimates of flow rates from these simulations compare favorably with data from observed flows due to earthquakes. Simple volumetric arguments demonstrate the ease with which fluids from the deep water table can reach the surface along fault conduits

  2. Toward real-time regional earthquake simulation of Taiwan earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, S.; Liu, Q.; Tromp, J.; Komatitsch, D.; Liang, W.; Huang, B.

    2013-12-01

    We developed a Real-time Online earthquake Simulation system (ROS) to simulate regional earthquakes in Taiwan. The ROS uses a centroid moment tensor solution of seismic events from a Real-time Moment Tensor monitoring system (RMT), which provides all the point source parameters including the event origin time, hypocentral location, moment magnitude and focal mechanism within 2 minutes after the occurrence of an earthquake. Then, all of the source parameters are automatically forwarded to the ROS to perform an earthquake simulation, which is based on a spectral-element method (SEM). We have improved SEM mesh quality by introducing a thin high-resolution mesh layer near the surface to accommodate steep and rapidly varying topography. The mesh for the shallow sedimentary basin is adjusted to reflect its complex geometry and sharp lateral velocity contrasts. The grid resolution at the surface is about 545 m, which is sufficient to resolve topography and tomography data for simulations accurate up to 1.0 Hz. The ROS is also an infrastructural service, making online earthquake simulation feasible. Users can conduct their own earthquake simulation by providing a set of source parameters through the ROS webpage. For visualization, a ShakeMovie and ShakeMap are produced during the simulation. The time needed for one event is roughly 3 minutes for a 70 sec ground motion simulation. The ROS is operated online at the Institute of Earth Sciences, Academia Sinica (http://ros.earth.sinica.edu.tw/). Our long-term goal for the ROS system is to contribute to public earth science outreach and to realize seismic ground motion prediction in real-time.

  3. Book review: Earthquakes and water

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bekins, Barbara A.

    2012-01-01

    It is really nice to see assembled in one place a discussion of the documented and hypothesized hydrologic effects of earthquakes. The book is divided into chapters focusing on particular hydrologic phenomena including liquefaction, mud volcanism, stream discharge increases, groundwater level, temperature and chemical changes, and geyser period changes. These hydrologic effects are inherently fascinating, and the large number of relevant publications in the past decade makes this summary a useful milepost. The book also covers hydrologic precursors and earthquake triggering by pore pressure. A natural need to limit the topics covered resulted in the omission of tsunamis and the vast literature on the role of fluids and pore pressure in frictional strength of faults. Regardless of whether research on earthquake-triggered hydrologic effects ultimately provides insight into the physics of earthquakes, the text provides welcome common ground for interdisciplinary collaborations between hydrologists and seismologists. Such collaborations continue to be crucial for investigating hypotheses about the role of fluids in earthquakes and slow slip. 

  4. Impaired psychological recovery in the elderly after the Niigata-Chuetsu Earthquake in Japan:a population-based study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Someya Toshiyuki

    2006-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background An earthquake measuring 6.8 on the Richter scale struck the Niigata-Chuetsu region of Japan at 5.56 P.M. on the 23rd of October, 2004. The earthquake was followed by sustained occurrence of numerous aftershocks, which delayed reconstruction of community lifelines. Even one year after the earthquake, 9,160 people were living in temporary housing. Such a devastating earthquake and life after the earthquake in an unfamiliar environment should cause psychological distress, especially among the elderly. Methods Psychological distress was measured using the 12-item General Health Questionnaire (GHQ-12 in 2,083 subjects (69% response rate who were living in transient housing five months after the earthquake. GHQ-12 was scored using the original method, Likert scoring and corrected method. The subjects were asked to assess their psychological status before the earthquake, their psychological status at the most stressful time after the earthquake and their psychological status at five months after the earthquake. Exploratory and confirmatory factor analysis was used to reveal the factor structure of GHQ12. Multiple regression analysis was performed to analyze the relationship between various background factors and GHQ-12 score and its subscale. Results GHQ-12 scores were significantly elevated at the most stressful time and they were significantly high even at five months after the earthquake. Factor analysis revealed that a model consisting of two factors (social dysfunction and dysphoria using corrected GHQ scoring showed a high level of goodness-of-fit. Multiple regression analysis revealed that age of subjects affected GHQ-12 scores. GHQ-12 score as well as its factor 'social dysfunction' scale were increased with increasing age of subjects at five months after the earthquake. Conclusion Impaired psychological recovery was observed even at five months after the Niigata-Chuetsu Earthquake in the elderly. The elderly were more

  5. The great East Japan earthquake

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fluke, R.

    2011-06-15

    'Full text:' More formally called the Tohoku-Chihou-Taiheiyo-Oki Earthquake of March 11, 2011, it was the ensuing tsunami that caused the most death and destruction to the north-east coastal region of Japan. It is also what caused the multiple meltdowns at Fukushima Dai-ichi. Reactor Unit 1, ironically, was scheduled to be permanently shut down for decommissioning just two weeks later. The Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant has a tsunami protection barrier designed for the worst recorded tsunami in that area since 1896 - to a height of 5.7 m. The plant itself is on an elevated grade of about 10 m. The tsunami, reported to be 14-15 m, caused inundation of the entire site with at least four metres of seawater. The seawater flooded the turbine building and damaged electrical equipment including the emergency diesel generators, leaving the entire six-unit nuclear power plan without any source of AC power, known as the 'station blackout scenario'. There are numerous reports available on-line at various sites. The Japanese Government report is frank and forthcoming on the causes and the lessons learned, and the lAEA Mission report is in-depth and well presented, not only as a factual account of the events but as a unified source of the conclusions and lessons learned. Photos of the catastrophe are available at the TEPCO web site: http://www.tepco.co.jp/en/index-e.html. In this edition of the Bulletin there is a 'layman's' description of CANDU and BWR design in terms of the fundamental safety principles - Control, Cool and Contain as well as a description of how these principles were met, or not met at Fukushima Dai-ichi. Also, an excerpt from the IAEA Expert Mission is included. We 'technocrats' sometimes forget about the human aspects of a nuclear disaster. An essay by Dr. Michael Edwards is included entitled 'Psychology, Philosophy and Nuclear Science'. Other references to the events appear throughout this

  6. The great East Japan earthquake

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fluke, R.

    2011-01-01

    'Full text:' More formally called the Tohoku-Chihou-Taiheiyo-Oki Earthquake of March 11, 2011, it was the ensuing tsunami that caused the most death and destruction to the north-east coastal region of Japan. It is also what caused the multiple meltdowns at Fukushima Dai-ichi. Reactor Unit 1, ironically, was scheduled to be permanently shut down for decommissioning just two weeks later. The Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant has a tsunami protection barrier designed for the worst recorded tsunami in that area since 1896 - to a height of 5.7 m. The plant itself is on an elevated grade of about 10 m. The tsunami, reported to be 14-15 m, caused inundation of the entire site with at least four metres of seawater. The seawater flooded the turbine building and damaged electrical equipment including the emergency diesel generators, leaving the entire six-unit nuclear power plan without any source of AC power, known as the 'station blackout scenario'. There are numerous reports available on-line at various sites. The Japanese Government report is frank and forthcoming on the causes and the lessons learned, and the lAEA Mission report is in-depth and well presented, not only as a factual account of the events but as a unified source of the conclusions and lessons learned. Photos of the catastrophe are available at the TEPCO web site: http://www.tepco.co.jp/en/index-e.html. In this edition of the Bulletin there is a 'layman's' description of CANDU and BWR design in terms of the fundamental safety principles - Control, Cool and Contain as well as a description of how these principles were met, or not met at Fukushima Dai-ichi. Also, an excerpt from the IAEA Expert Mission is included. We 'technocrats' sometimes forget about the human aspects of a nuclear disaster. An essay by Dr. Michael Edwards is included entitled 'Psychology, Philosophy and Nuclear Science'. Other references to the events appear throughout this edition.(author)

  7. Global Earthquake Hazard Frequency and Distribution

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Global Earthquake Hazard Frequency and Distribution is a 2.5 minute grid utilizing Advanced National Seismic System (ANSS) Earthquake Catalog data of actual...

  8. Unbonded Prestressed Columns for Earthquake Resistance

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-05-01

    Modern structures are able to survive significant shaking caused by earthquakes. By implementing unbonded post-tensioned tendons in bridge columns, the damage caused by an earthquake can be significantly lower than that of a standard reinforced concr...

  9. Extreme value distribution of earthquake magnitude

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zi, Jun Gan; Tung, C. C.

    1983-07-01

    Probability distribution of maximum earthquake magnitude is first derived for an unspecified probability distribution of earthquake magnitude. A model for energy release of large earthquakes, similar to that of Adler-Lomnitz and Lomnitz, is introduced from which the probability distribution of earthquake magnitude is obtained. An extensive set of world data for shallow earthquakes, covering the period from 1904 to 1980, is used to determine the parameters of the probability distribution of maximum earthquake magnitude. Because of the special form of probability distribution of earthquake magnitude, a simple iterative scheme is devised to facilitate the estimation of these parameters by the method of least-squares. The agreement between the empirical and derived probability distributions of maximum earthquake magnitude is excellent.

  10. A global building inventory for earthquake loss estimation and risk management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaiswal, K.; Wald, D.; Porter, K.

    2010-01-01

    We develop a global database of building inventories using taxonomy of global building types for use in near-real-time post-earthquake loss estimation and pre-earthquake risk analysis, for the U.S. Geological Survey's Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) program. The database is available for public use, subject to peer review, scrutiny, and open enhancement. On a country-by-country level, it contains estimates of the distribution of building types categorized by material, lateral force resisting system, and occupancy type (residential or nonresidential, urban or rural). The database draws on and harmonizes numerous sources: (1) UN statistics, (2) UN Habitat's demographic and health survey (DHS) database, (3) national housing censuses, (4) the World Housing Encyclopedia and (5) other literature. ?? 2010, Earthquake Engineering Research Institute.

  11. The "Tsunami Earthquake" of 13 April 1923 in Northern Kamchatka: Seismological and Hydrodynamic Investigations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salaree, Amir; Okal, Emile A.

    2018-04-01

    We present a seismological and hydrodynamic investigation of the earthquake of 13 April 1923 at Ust'-Kamchatsk, Northern Kamchatka, which generated a more powerful and damaging tsunami than the larger event of 03 February 1923, thus qualifying as a so-called "tsunami earthquake". On the basis of modern relocations, we suggest that it took place outside the fault area of the mainshock, across the oblique Pacific-North America plate boundary, a model confirmed by a limited dataset of mantle waves, which also confirms the slow nature of the source, characteristic of tsunami earthquakes. However, numerical simulations for a number of legitimate seismic models fail to reproduce the sharply peaked distribution of tsunami wave amplitudes reported in the literature. By contrast, we can reproduce the distribution of reported wave amplitudes using an underwater landslide as a source of the tsunami, itself triggered by the earthquake inside the Kamchatskiy Bight.

  12. PRECURSORS OF EARTHQUAKES: VLF SIGNALSIONOSPHERE IONOSPHERE RELATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mustafa ULAS

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available lot of people have died because of earthquakes every year. Therefore It is crucial to predict the time of the earthquakes reasonable time before it had happed. This paper presents recent information published in the literature about precursors of earthquakes. The relationships between earthquakes and ionosphere are targeted to guide new researches in order to study further to find novel prediction methods.

  13. EARTHQUAKE RESEARCH PROBLEMS OF NUCLEAR POWER GENERATORS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Housner, G. W.; Hudson, D. E.

    1963-10-15

    Earthquake problems associated with the construction of nuclear power generators require a more extensive and a more precise knowledge of earthquake characteristics and the dynamic behavior of structures than was considered necessary for ordinary buildings. Economic considerations indicate the desirability of additional research on the problems of earthquakes and nuclear reactors. The nature of these earthquake-resistant design problems is discussed and programs of research are recommended. (auth)

  14. Historical earthquake investigations in Greece

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Makropoulos

    2004-06-01

    Full Text Available The active tectonics of the area of Greece and its seismic activity have always been present in the country?s history. Many researchers, tempted to work on Greek historical earthquakes, have realized that this is a task not easily fulfilled. The existing catalogues of strong historical earthquakes are useful tools to perform general SHA studies. However, a variety of supporting datasets, non-uniformly distributed in space and time, need to be further investigated. In the present paper, a review of historical earthquake studies in Greece is attempted. The seismic history of the country is divided into four main periods. In each one of them, characteristic examples, studies and approaches are presented.

  15. Slope earthquake stability

    CERN Document Server

    Changwei, Yang; Jing, Lian; Wenying, Yu; Jianjing, Zhang

    2017-01-01

    This book begins with the dynamic characteristics of the covering layerbedrock type slope, containing monitoring data of the seismic array, shaking table tests, numerical analysis and theoretical derivation. Then it focuses on the landslide mechanism and assessment method. It also proposes a model that assessing the hazard area based on the field investigations. Many questions, exercises and solutions are given. Researchers and engineers in the field of Geotechnical Engineering and Anti-seismic Engineering can benefit from it.

  16. Portals for Real-Time Earthquake Data and Forecasting: Challenge and Promise (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rundle, J. B.; Holliday, J. R.; Graves, W. R.; Feltstykket, R.; Donnellan, A.; Glasscoe, M. T.

    2013-12-01

    Earthquake forecasts have been computed by a variety of countries world-wide for over two decades. For the most part, forecasts have been computed for insurance, reinsurance and underwriters of catastrophe bonds. However, recent events clearly demonstrate that mitigating personal risk is becoming the responsibility of individual members of the public. Open access to a variety of web-based forecasts, tools, utilities and information is therefore required. Portals for data and forecasts present particular challenges, and require the development of both apps and the client/server architecture to deliver the basic information in real time. The basic forecast model we consider is the Natural Time Weibull (NTW) method (JBR et al., Phys. Rev. E, 86, 021106, 2012). This model uses small earthquakes (';seismicity-based models') to forecast the occurrence of large earthquakes, via data-mining algorithms combined with the ANSS earthquake catalog. This method computes large earthquake probabilities using the number of small earthquakes that have occurred in a region since the last large earthquake. Localizing these forecasts in space so that global forecasts can be computed in real time presents special algorithmic challenges, which we describe in this talk. Using 25 years of data from the ANSS California-Nevada catalog of earthquakes, we compute real-time global forecasts at a grid scale of 0.1o. We analyze and monitor the performance of these models using the standard tests, which include the Reliability/Attributes and Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) tests. It is clear from much of the analysis that data quality is a major limitation on the accurate computation of earthquake probabilities. We discuss the challenges of serving up these datasets over the web on web-based platforms such as those at www.quakesim.org , www.e-decider.org , and www.openhazards.com.

  17. Fault failure with moderate earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnston, M. J. S.; Linde, A. T.; Gladwin, M. T.; Borcherdt, R. D.

    1987-12-01

    High resolution strain and tilt recordings were made in the near-field of, and prior to, the May 1983 Coalinga earthquake ( ML = 6.7, Δ = 51 km), the August 4, 1985, Kettleman Hills earthquake ( ML = 5.5, Δ = 34 km), the April 1984 Morgan Hill earthquake ( ML = 6.1, Δ = 55 km), the November 1984 Round Valley earthquake ( ML = 5.8, Δ = 54 km), the January 14, 1978, Izu, Japan earthquake ( ML = 7.0, Δ = 28 km), and several other smaller magnitude earthquakes. These recordings were made with near-surface instruments (resolution 10 -8), with borehole dilatometers (resolution 10 -10) and a 3-component borehole strainmeter (resolution 10 -9). While observed coseismic offsets are generally in good agreement with expectations from elastic dislocation theory, and while post-seismic deformation continued, in some cases, with a moment comparable to that of the main shock, preseismic strain or tilt perturbations from hours to seconds (or less) before the main shock are not apparent above the present resolution. Precursory slip for these events, if any occurred, must have had a moment less than a few percent of that of the main event. To the extent that these records reflect general fault behavior, the strong constraint on the size and amount of slip triggering major rupture makes prediction of the onset times and final magnitudes of the rupture zones a difficult task unless the instruments are fortuitously installed near the rupture initiation point. These data are best explained by an inhomogeneous failure model for which various areas of the fault plane have either different stress-slip constitutive laws or spatially varying constitutive parameters. Other work on seismic waveform analysis and synthetic waveforms indicates that the rupturing process is inhomogeneous and controlled by points of higher strength. These models indicate that rupture initiation occurs at smaller regions of higher strength which, when broken, allow runaway catastrophic failure.

  18. Modeling, Forecasting and Mitigating Extreme Earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ismail-Zadeh, A.; Le Mouel, J.; Soloviev, A.

    2012-12-01

    Recent earthquake disasters highlighted the importance of multi- and trans-disciplinary studies of earthquake risk. A major component of earthquake disaster risk analysis is hazards research, which should cover not only a traditional assessment of ground shaking, but also studies of geodetic, paleoseismic, geomagnetic, hydrological, deep drilling and other geophysical and geological observations together with comprehensive modeling of earthquakes and forecasting extreme events. Extreme earthquakes (large magnitude and rare events) are manifestations of complex behavior of the lithosphere structured as a hierarchical system of blocks of different sizes. Understanding of physics and dynamics of the extreme events comes from observations, measurements and modeling. A quantitative approach to simulate earthquakes in models of fault dynamics will be presented. The models reproduce basic features of the observed seismicity (e.g., the frequency-magnitude relationship, clustering of earthquakes, occurrence of extreme seismic events). They provide a link between geodynamic processes and seismicity, allow studying extreme events, influence of fault network properties on seismic patterns and seismic cycles, and assist, in a broader sense, in earthquake forecast modeling. Some aspects of predictability of large earthquakes (how well can large earthquakes be predicted today?) will be also discussed along with possibilities in mitigation of earthquake disasters (e.g., on 'inverse' forensic investigations of earthquake disasters).

  19. 13 CFR 120.174 - Earthquake hazards.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 13 Business Credit and Assistance 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Earthquake hazards. 120.174... Applying to All Business Loans Requirements Imposed Under Other Laws and Orders § 120.174 Earthquake..., the construction must conform with the “National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program (“NEHRP...

  20. Computational methods in earthquake engineering

    CERN Document Server

    Plevris, Vagelis; Lagaros, Nikos

    2017-01-01

    This is the third book in a series on Computational Methods in Earthquake Engineering. The purpose of this volume is to bring together the scientific communities of Computational Mechanics and Structural Dynamics, offering a wide coverage of timely issues on contemporary Earthquake Engineering. This volume will facilitate the exchange of ideas in topics of mutual interest and can serve as a platform for establishing links between research groups with complementary activities. The computational aspects are emphasized in order to address difficult engineering problems of great social and economic importance. .

  1. Earthquake Education in Prime Time

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Groot, R.; Abbott, P.; Benthien, M.

    2004-12-01

    Since 2001, the Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC) has collaborated on several video production projects that feature important topics related to earthquake science, engineering, and preparedness. These projects have also fostered many fruitful and sustained partnerships with a variety of organizations that have a stake in hazard education and preparedness. The Seismic Sleuths educational video first appeared in the spring season 2001 on Discovery Channel's Assignment Discovery. Seismic Sleuths is based on a highly successful curriculum package developed jointly by the American Geophysical Union and The Department of Homeland Security Federal Emergency Management Agency. The California Earthquake Authority (CEA) and the Institute for Business and Home Safety supported the video project. Summer Productions, a company with a reputation for quality science programming, produced the Seismic Sleuths program in close partnership with scientists, engineers, and preparedness experts. The program has aired on the National Geographic Channel as recently as Fall 2004. Currently, SCEC is collaborating with Pat Abbott, a geology professor at San Diego State University (SDSU) on the video project Written In Stone: Earthquake Country - Los Angeles. Partners on this project include the California Seismic Safety Commission, SDSU, SCEC, CEA, and the Insurance Information Network of California. This video incorporates live-action demonstrations, vivid animations, and a compelling host (Abbott) to tell the story about earthquakes in the Los Angeles region. The Written in Stone team has also developed a comprehensive educator package that includes the video, maps, lesson plans, and other supporting materials. We will present the process that facilitates the creation of visually effective, factually accurate, and entertaining video programs. We acknowledge the need to have a broad understanding of the literature related to communication, media studies, science education, and

  2. Radon as an earthquake precursor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Planinic, J.; Radolic, V.; Vukovic, B.

    2004-01-01

    Radon concentrations in soil gas were continuously measured by the LR-115 nuclear track detectors during a four-year period. Seismic activities, as well as barometric pressure, rainfall and air temperature were also observed. The influence of meteorological parameters on temporal radon variations was investigated, and a respective equation of the multiple regression was derived. The earthquakes with magnitude ≥3 at epicentral distances ≤200 km were recognized by means of radon anomaly. Empirical equations between earthquake magnitude, epicentral distance and precursor time were examined, and respective constants were determined

  3. Radon as an earthquake precursor

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Planinic, J. E-mail: planinic@pedos.hr; Radolic, V.; Vukovic, B

    2004-09-11

    Radon concentrations in soil gas were continuously measured by the LR-115 nuclear track detectors during a four-year period. Seismic activities, as well as barometric pressure, rainfall and air temperature were also observed. The influence of meteorological parameters on temporal radon variations was investigated, and a respective equation of the multiple regression was derived. The earthquakes with magnitude {>=}3 at epicentral distances {<=}200 km were recognized by means of radon anomaly. Empirical equations between earthquake magnitude, epicentral distance and precursor time were examined, and respective constants were determined.

  4. [Medical rescue of China National Earthquake Disaster Emergency Search and Rescue Team in Lushan earthquake].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Ya-hua; Yang, Hui-ning; Liu, Hui-liang; Wang, Fan; Hu, Li-bin; Zheng, Jing-chen

    2013-05-01

    To summarize and analyze the medical mission of China National Earthquake Disaster Emergency Search and Rescue Team (CNESAR) in Lushan earthquake, to promote the medical rescue effectiveness incorporated with search and rescue. Retrospective analysis of medical work data by CNESAR from April 21th, 2013 to April 27th during Lushan earthquake rescue, including the medical staff dispatch and the wounded case been treated. The reasonable medical corps was composed by 22 members, including 2 administrators, 11 doctors [covering emergency medicine, orthopedics (joints and limbs, spinal), obstetrics and gynecology, gastroenterology, cardiology, ophthalmology, anesthesiology, medical rescue, health epidemic prevention, clinical laboratory of 11 specialties], 1 ultrasound technician, 5 nurses, 1 pharmacist, 1 medical instrument engineer and 1 office worker for propaganda. There were two members having psychological consultants qualifications. The medical work were carried out in seven aspects, including medical care assurance for the CNESAR members, first aid cooperation with search and rescue on site, clinical work in refugees' camp, medical round service for scattered village people, evacuation for the wounded, mental intervention, and the sanitary and anti-epidemic work. The medical work covered 24 small towns, and medical staff established 3 medical clinics at Taiping Town, Shuangshi Town of Lushan County and Baoxing County. Medical rescue, mental intervention for the old and kids, and sanitary and anti-epidemic were performed at the above sites. The medical corps had successful evacuated 2 severe wounded patients and treated the wounded over thousands. Most of the wounded were soft tissue injuries, external injury, respiratory tract infections, diarrhea, and heat stroke. Compared with the rescue action in 2008 Wenchuan earthquake, the aggregation and departure of rescue team in Lushan earthquake, the traffic control order in disaster area, the self-aid and buddy aid

  5. Dancing Earthquake Science Assists Recovery from the Christchurch Earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Egan, Candice J.; Quigley, Mark C.

    2015-01-01

    The 2010-2012 Christchurch (Canterbury) earthquakes in New Zealand caused loss of life and psychological distress in residents throughout the region. In 2011, student dancers of the Hagley Dance Company and dance professionals choreographed the performance "Move: A Seismic Journey" for the Christchurch Body Festival that explored…

  6. The Moneron Tsunami of September 5, 1971, and Its Manifestation on the Sakhalin Island Coast: Numerical Simulation Results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kostenko, I. S.; Zaytsev, A. I.; Minaev, D. D.; Kurkin, A. A.; Pelinovsky, E. N.; Oshmarina, O. E.

    2018-01-01

    Observation data on the September 5, 1971, earthquake that occurred near the Moneron Island (Sakhalin) have been analyzed and a numerical simulation of the tsunami induced by this earthquake is conducted. The tsunami source identified in this study indicates that the observational data are in good agreement with the results of calculations performed on the basis of shallow-water equations.

  7. Periodic Viscous Shear Heating Instability in Fine-Grained Shear Zones: Possible Mechanism for Intermediate Depth Earthquakes and Slow Earthquakes?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelemen, P. B.; Hirth, G.

    2004-12-01

    creep and grain boundary sliding as a function of stress and strain, and undergoes diffusive growth during diffusion creep. For strain rates ca E-13 per second and initial temperatures ca 600 to 850 C, this model produces periodic viscous shear heating events with periods of 100's of years. Strain rates during these events approach 1 per second as temperatures reach 1400 C, so future models will incorporate inertial terms in the stress. Cooling between events returns the shear zone almost to its initial temperature, but ultimately shear zone temperature between events exceeds 850 C resulting in stable viscous creep. Back of the envelope calculations based on model results support the view that viscous deformation in both shear zone and host will be mainly via grain-size sensitive creep, and thus deformation will remain localized in shear zones. Similarly, we infer that inertial terms will remain small. Future models will test and quantify these inferences. The simple model described above provides an attractive explanation for intermediate-depth earthquakes, especially those in subduction zones that occur in a narrow thermal window (e.g., Hacker et al JGR 2003). We think that a "smoother"periodic instability might be produced via the same mechanism in weaker materials, which could provide a viscous mechanism for some slow earthquakes. By AGU, we will construct a second, simple model using quartz rheology to investigate this. Finally, coupling of viscous shear heating instabilities in the shallow mantle with brittle stick-slip deformation in the weaker, overlying crust may influence earthquake frequency.

  8. Mental health problems among the survivors in the hard-hit areas of the Yushu earthquake.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhen Zhang

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: On April 14, 2010, an earthquake registering 7.1 on the Richter scale shook Qinghai Province in southwest China. The earthquake caused numerous casualties and much damage. The epicenter, Yushu County, suffered the most severe damage. As a part of the psychological relief work, the present study evaluated the mental health statuses of the people affected and identified the mental disorder risk factors related to earthquakes. METHODS: Five hundred and five earthquake survivors living in Yushu County were investigated 3-4 months after the earthquake. Participant demographic data including gender, age, marital status, ethnicity, educational level, and religious beliefs were collected. The Earthquake-Specific Trauma Exposure Indicators assessed the intensity of exposure to trauma during the earthquake. The PTSD Checklist-Civilian version (PCL-C and the Hopkins Symptoms Checklist-25 (HSCL-25 assessed the symptoms and prevalence rates of probable Posttraumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD as well as anxiety and depression, respectively. The Perceived Social Support Scale (PSSS evaluated subjective social support. RESULTS: The prevalence rates of probable PTSD, anxiety, and depression were 33.7%, 43.8% and 38.6%, respectively. Approximately one fifth of participants suffered from all three conditions. Individuals who were female, felt initial fear during the earthquake, and had less social support were the most likely to have poor mental health. CONCLUSIONS: The present study revealed that there are serious mental problems among the hard-hit survivors of the Yushu earthquake. Survivors at high risk for mental disorders should be specifically considered. The present study provides useful information for rebuilding and relief work.

  9. Underestimation of Microearthquake Size by the Magnitude Scale of the Japan Meteorological Agency: Influence on Earthquake Statistics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uchide, Takahiko; Imanishi, Kazutoshi

    2018-01-01

    Magnitude scales based on the amplitude of seismic waves, including the Japan Meteorological Agency magnitude scale (Mj), are commonly used in routine processes. The moment magnitude scale (Mw), however, is more physics based and is able to evaluate any type and size of earthquake. This paper addresses the relation between Mj and Mw for microearthquakes. The relative moment magnitudes among earthquakes are well constrained by multiple spectral ratio analyses. The results for the events in the Fukushima Hamadori and northern Ibaraki prefecture areas of Japan imply that Mj is significantly and systematically smaller than Mw for microearthquakes. The Mj-Mw curve has slopes of 1/2 and 1 for small and large values of Mj, respectively; for example, Mj = 1.0 corresponds to Mw = 2.0. A simple numerical simulation implies that this is due to anelastic attenuation and the recording using a finite sampling interval. The underestimation affects earthquake statistics. The completeness magnitude, Mc, for magnitudes lower than which the magnitude-frequency distribution deviates from the Gutenberg-Richter law, is effectively lower for Mw than that for Mj, by taking into account the systematic difference between Mj and Mw. The b values of the Gutenberg-Richter law are larger for Mw than for Mj. As the b values for Mj and Mw are well correlated, qualitative argument using b values is not affected. While the estimated b values for Mj are below 1.5, those for Mw often exceed 1.5. This may affect the physical implication of the seismicity.

  10. Insights into earthquake hazard map performance from shaking history simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stein, S.; Vanneste, K.; Camelbeeck, T.; Vleminckx, B.

    2017-12-01

    Why recent large earthquakes caused shaking stronger than predicted by earthquake hazard maps is under debate. This issue has two parts. Verification involves how well maps implement probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) ("have we built the map right?"). Validation asks how well maps forecast shaking ("have we built the right map?"). We explore how well a map can ideally perform by simulating an area's shaking history and comparing "observed" shaking to that predicted by a map generated for the same parameters. The simulations yield shaking distributions whose mean is consistent with the map, but individual shaking histories show large scatter. Infrequent large earthquakes cause shaking much stronger than mapped, as observed. Hence, PSHA seems internally consistent and can be regarded as verified. Validation is harder because an earthquake history can yield shaking higher or lower than that predicted while being consistent with the hazard map. The scatter decreases for longer observation times because the largest earthquakes and resulting shaking are increasingly likely to have occurred. For the same reason, scatter is much less for the more active plate boundary than for a continental interior. For a continental interior, where the mapped hazard is low, even an M4 event produces exceedances at some sites. Larger earthquakes produce exceedances at more sites. Thus many exceedances result from small earthquakes, but infrequent large ones may cause very large exceedances. However, for a plate boundary, an M6 event produces exceedance at only a few sites, and an M7 produces them in a larger, but still relatively small, portion of the study area. As reality gives only one history, and a real map involves assumptions about more complicated source geometries and occurrence rates, which are unlikely to be exactly correct and thus will contribute additional scatter, it is hard to assess whether misfit between actual shaking and a map — notably higher

  11. Exceptional Ground Accelerations and Velocities Caused by Earthquakes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Anderson, John

    2008-01-17

    This project aims to understand the characteristics of the free-field strong-motion records that have yielded the 100 largest peak accelerations and the 100 largest peak velocities recorded to date. The peak is defined as the maximum magnitude of the acceleration or velocity vector during the strong shaking. This compilation includes 35 records with peak acceleration greater than gravity, and 41 records with peak velocities greater than 100 cm/s. The results represent an estimated 150,000 instrument-years of strong-motion recordings. The mean horizontal acceleration or velocity, as used for the NGA ground motion models, is typically 0.76 times the magnitude of this vector peak. Accelerations in the top 100 come from earthquakes as small as magnitude 5, while velocities in the top 100 all come from earthquakes with magnitude 6 or larger. Records are dominated by crustal earthquakes with thrust, oblique-thrust, or strike-slip mechanisms. Normal faulting mechanisms in crustal earthquakes constitute under 5% of the records in the databases searched, and an even smaller percentage of the exceptional records. All NEHRP site categories have contributed exceptional records, in proportions similar to the extent that they are represented in the larger database.

  12. Complex rupture during the 12 January 2010 Haiti earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hayes, G.P.; Briggs, R.W.; Sladen, A.; Fielding, E.J.; Prentice, C.; Hudnut, K.; Mann, P.; Taylor, F.W.; Crone, A.J.; Gold, R.; Ito, T.; Simons, M.

    2010-01-01

    Initially, the devastating Mw 7.0, 12 January 2010 Haiti earthquake seemed to involve straightforward accommodation of oblique relative motion between the Caribbean and North American plates along the Enriquillog-Plantain Garden fault zone. Here, we combine seismological observations, geologic field data and space geodetic measurements to show that, instead, the rupture process may have involved slip on multiple faults. Primary surface deformation was driven by rupture on blind thrust faults with only minor, deep, lateral slip along or near the main Enriquillog-Plantain Garden fault zone; thus the event only partially relieved centuries of accumulated left-lateral strain on a small part of the plate-boundary system. Together with the predominance of shallow off-fault thrusting, the lack of surface deformation implies that remaining shallow shear strain will be released in future surface-rupturing earthquakes on the Enriquillog-Plantain Garden fault zone, as occurred in inferred Holocene and probable historic events. We suggest that the geological signature of this earthquakeg-broad warping and coastal deformation rather than surface rupture along the main fault zoneg-will not be easily recognized by standard palaeoseismic studies. We conclude that similarly complex earthquakes in tectonic environments that accommodate both translation and convergenceg-such as the San Andreas fault through the Transverse Ranges of Californiag-may be missing from the prehistoric earthquake record. ?? 2010 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved.

  13. Ground motions estimates for a cascadia earthquake from liquefaction evidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dickenson, S.E.; Obermeier, S.F.

    1998-01-01

    Paleoseismic studies conducted in the coastal regions of the Pacific Northwest in the past decade have revealed evidence of crustal downdropping and subsequent tsunami inundation, attributable to a large earthquake along the Cascadia subduction zone which occurred approximately 300 years ago, and most likely in 1700 AD. In order to characterize the severity of ground motions from this earthquake, we report on results of a field search for seismically induced liquefaction features. The search was made chiefly along the coastal portions of several river valleys in Washington, rivers along the central Oregon coast, as well as on islands in the Columbia River of Oregon and Washington. In this paper we focus only on the results of the Columbia River investigation. Numerous liquefaction features were found in some regions, but not in others. The regional distribution of liquefaction features is evaluated as a function of geologic and geotechnical factors at each site in order to estimate the intensity of ground shaking.

  14. About Block Dynamic Model of Earthquake Source.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gusev, G. A.; Gufeld, I. L.

    One may state the absence of a progress in the earthquake prediction papers. The short-term prediction (diurnal period, localisation being also predicted) has practical meaning. Failure is due to the absence of the adequate notions about geological medium, particularly, its block structure and especially in the faults. Geological and geophysical monitoring gives the basis for the notion about geological medium as open block dissipative system with limit energy saturation. The variations of the volume stressed state close to critical states are associated with the interaction of the inhomogeneous ascending stream of light gases (helium and hydrogen) with solid phase, which is more expressed in the faults. In the background state small blocks of the fault medium produce the sliding of great blocks in the faults. But for the considerable variations of ascending gas streams the formation of bound chains of small blocks is possible, so that bound state of great blocks may result (earthquake source). Recently using these notions we proposed a dynamical earthquake source model, based on the generalized chain of non-linear bound oscillators of Fermi-Pasta-Ulam type (FPU). The generalization concerns its in homogeneity and different external actions, imitating physical processes in the real source. Earlier weak inhomogeneous approximation without dissipation was considered. Last has permitted to study the FPU return (return to initial state). Probabilistic properties in quasi periodic movement were found. The chain decay problem due to non-linearity and external perturbations was posed. The thresholds and dependence of life- time of the chain are studied. The great fluctuations of life-times are discovered. In the present paper the rigorous consideration of the inhomogeneous chain including the dissipation is considered. For the strong dissipation case, when the oscillation movements are suppressed, specific effects are discovered. For noise action and constantly arising

  15. Earthquake predictions using seismic velocity ratios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sherburne, R. W.

    1979-01-01

    Since the beginning of modern seismology, seismologists have contemplated predicting earthquakes. The usefulness of earthquake predictions to the reduction of human and economic losses and the value of long-range earthquake prediction to planning is obvious. Not as clear are the long-range economic and social impacts of earthquake prediction to a speicifc area. The general consensus of opinion among scientists and government officials, however, is that the quest of earthquake prediction is a worthwhile goal and should be prusued with a sense of urgency. 

  16. Measuring the size of an earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spence, W.; Sipkin, S.A.; Choy, G.L.

    1989-01-01

    Earthquakes range broadly in size. A rock-burst in an Idaho silver mine may involve the fracture of 1 meter of rock; the 1965 Rat Island earthquake in the Aleutian arc involved a 650-kilometer length of the Earth's crust. Earthquakes can be even smaller and even larger. If an earthquake is felt or causes perceptible surface damage, then its intensity of shaking can be subjectively estimated. But many large earthquakes occur in oceanic areas or at great focal depths and are either simply not felt or their felt pattern does not really indicate their true size.

  17. Earthquakes-Rattling the Earth's Plumbing System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sneed, Michelle; Galloway, Devin L.; Cunningham, William L.

    2003-01-01

    Hydrogeologic responses to earthquakes have been known for decades, and have occurred both close to, and thousands of miles from earthquake epicenters. Water wells have become turbid, dry or begun flowing, discharge of springs and ground water to streams has increased and new springs have formed, and well and surface-water quality have become degraded as a result of earthquakes. Earthquakes affect our Earth’s intricate plumbing system—whether you live near the notoriously active San Andreas Fault in California, or far from active faults in Florida, an earthquake near or far can affect you and the water resources you depend on.

  18. Reactivation of slow-moving landslides by earthquakes, kinematics measurements and mechanical implications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lacroix, Pascal; Perfettini, Hugo; Berthier, Etienne; Taipe, Edu; Guillier, Bertrand

    2015-04-01

    Major earthquakes in mountainous areas often trigger landslides. The impact of earthquakes on slow-moving landslides is however not well constrained due to few co-seismic measurements of landslide motion. We document the first time-series of a landslide reactivation by an earthquake (Mw6.0, distance 20 km), using continuous GPS measurements over the Maca landslide (Peru). Our survey shows a coseismic response of the landslide of about 2 cm, followed by a relaxation period of 5 weeks during which postseismic slip is three times greater than the coseismic displacement itself. Our results confirm the coseismic activation of landslides and provide the first observation of a post seismic displacement. Finally, a multi-temporal survey using images from the very high resolution Pléiades optical satellite, allowed us to detect 9 active slow-moving landslides over the whole valley. Their pattern of motion show they have been reactivated by the same earthquake. We analyze this small but comprehensive database of landslides reactivated by the earthquake. We find that the landslide motion due to the earthquake is function of the shaking intensity, suggesting a friction at the basal interface dependent on the earthquake solicitation. These various observations are consistent with a mechanical model where slip on the landslide basal interface is governed by rate and state friction, analogous to the mechanics of creeping tectonic faults.

  19. Subduction zone earthquake probably triggered submarine hydrocarbon seepage offshore Pakistan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fischer, David; José M., Mogollón; Michael, Strasser; Thomas, Pape; Gerhard, Bohrmann; Noemi, Fekete; Volkhard, Spiess; Sabine, Kasten

    2014-05-01

    Seepage of methane-dominated hydrocarbons is heterogeneous in space and time, and trigger mechanisms of episodic seep events are not well constrained. It is generally found that free hydrocarbon gas entering the local gas hydrate stability field in marine sediments is sequestered in gas hydrates. In this manner, gas hydrates can act as a buffer for carbon transport from the sediment into the ocean. However, the efficiency of gas hydrate-bearing sediments for retaining hydrocarbons may be corrupted: Hypothesized mechanisms include critical gas/fluid pressures beneath gas hydrate-bearing sediments, implying that these are susceptible to mechanical failure and subsequent gas release. Although gas hydrates often occur in seismically active regions, e.g., subduction zones, the role of earthquakes as potential triggers of hydrocarbon transport through gas hydrate-bearing sediments has hardly been explored. Based on a recent publication (Fischer et al., 2013), we present geochemical and transport/reaction-modelling data suggesting a substantial increase in upward gas flux and hydrocarbon emission into the water column following a major earthquake that occurred near the study sites in 1945. Calculating the formation time of authigenic barite enrichments identified in two sediment cores obtained from an anticlinal structure called "Nascent Ridge", we find they formed 38-91 years before sampling, which corresponds well to the time elapsed since the earthquake (62 years). Furthermore, applying a numerical model, we show that the local sulfate/methane transition zone shifted upward by several meters due to the increased methane flux and simulated sulfate profiles very closely match measured ones in a comparable time frame of 50-70 years. We thus propose a causal relation between the earthquake and the amplified gas flux and present reflection seismic data supporting our hypothesis that co-seismic ground shaking induced mechanical fracturing of gas hydrate-bearing sediments

  20. Scientific Information Platform for the 2008 Great Wenchuan Earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liang, C.

    2012-12-01

    The 2008 MS 8.0 Wenchuan earthquake is one of the deadliest in recent human history. This earthquake has not just united the whole world to help local people to lead their life through the difficult time, it has also fostered significant global cooperation to study this event from various aspects: including pre-seismic events (such as the seismicity, gravity, electro-magnetic fields, well water level, radon level in water etc), co-seismic events (fault slipping, landslides, man-made structure damages etc) and post-seismic events (such as aftershocks, well water level changing etc) as well as the disaster relief efforts. In the last four years, more than 300 scientific articles have been published on peer-reviewed journals, among them about 50% are published in Chinese, 30% in English, and about 20% in both languages. These researches have advanced our understanding of earthquake science in general. It has also sparked open debates in many aspects. Notably, the role of the Zipingpu reservoir (built not long ago before the earthquake) in the triggering of this monstrous earthquake is still one of many continuing debates. Given that all these articles are ssporadically spread out on different journals and numerous issues and in different languages, it can be very inefficient, sometimes impossible, to dig out the information that are in need. The Earthquake Research Group in the Chengdu University of Technology (ERGCDUT) has initiated an effort to develop an information platform to collect and analyze scientific research on or related to this earthquake, the hosting faults and the surrounding tectonic regions. A preliminary website has been setup for this purpose: http://www.wenchuaneqresearch.org. Up to this point (July 2012), articles published in 6 Chinese journals and 7 international journals have been collected. Articles are listed journal by journal, and also grouped by contents into four major categories, including pre-seismic events, co-seismic events, post

  1. Chaotic behaviour in the non-linear optimal control of unilaterally contacting building systems during earthquakes

    CERN Document Server

    Liolios, A

    2003-01-01

    The paper presents a new numerical approach for a non-linear optimal control problem arising in earthquake civil engineering. This problem concerns the elastoplastic softening-fracturing unilateral contact between neighbouring buildings during earthquakes when Coulomb friction is taken into account under second-order instabilizing effects. So, the earthquake response of the adjacent structures can appear instabilities and chaotic behaviour. The problem formulation presented here leads to a set of equations and inequalities, which is equivalent to a dynamic hemivariational inequality in the way introduced by Panagiotopoulos [Hemivariational Inequalities. Applications in Mechanics and Engineering, Springer-Verlag, Berlin, 1993]. The numerical procedure is based on an incremental problem formulation and on a double discretization, in space by the finite element method and in time by the Wilson-theta method. The generally non-convex constitutive contact laws are piecewise linearized, and in each time-step a non-c...

  2. Summary of earthquake experience database

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1999-01-01

    Strong-motion earthquakes frequently occur throughout the Pacific Basin, where power plants or industrial facilities are included in the affected areas. By studying the performance of these earthquake-affected (or database) facilities, a large inventory of various types of equipment installations can be compiled that have experienced substantial seismic motion. The primary purposes of the seismic experience database are summarized as follows: to determine the most common sources of seismic damage, or adverse effects, on equipment installations typical of industrial facilities; to determine the thresholds of seismic motion corresponding to various types of seismic damage; to determine the general performance of equipment during earthquakes